highest natural gas settlement since February 6th after force majeure on the leaking Mountaineer XPress pipeline in WV; US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since October 1982; distillates imports at a 52 week low; US rig count at a 27 month high
US oil prices fell for the second time in eight weeks on hopes that negotiations to end the war in Iran would proceed with Iran’s president in New York for a United Nations General Assembly meeting….after inching up 0.2% to $100.30 a barrel last week after drone damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline led to a suspension of their exports through the Red Sea, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery fell to its lowest level in more than a week during Asian trading early on Monday, as traders hoped diplomatic efforts over the Iran war would gain momentum this week amid a United Nations meeting in New York, and was down 3.4% during early trading in New York, after Trump reportedly told a news channel that he would "probably" be open to a sit-down meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and settled $4.52 or 4.5% lower at $95.78 a barrel as traders hoped for a breakthrough in peace talks this week during the United Nations meeting….that October oil contract price rose slightly on its last day of trading as markets opened in Asia on Tuesday, as traders watched for developments in possible US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, and was up by more than 1.1% as markets started trading in London, as traders continued assessing the situation in the Middle East and the prospects for its settlement. but turned sharply lower during early trade in New York as markets awaited hints at diplomacy from U.N. general assembly speeches by U.S. President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian that could signal a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to oil and other energy shipments, and expired $1.19 lower at $94.59 a barrel amid the prospects increased oil flow from the Middle East, after Iran signaled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia was set to resume its oil exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the price of the benchmark US oil contract for November delivery settled $1.85 lower at $90.52 a barrel…with markets now citing the price of that benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery, prices fell across global markets on Wednesday after US President Trump said American and Iranian representatives had held “very good” and productive discussions on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, but reversed initial losses during early US trading amid persistent Middle East supply risks, as traders weighed the prospect of improved Saudi export flows and U.S.-Iran diplomacy against the potential for further disruptions, and were later up nearly 5% amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could widen, even after U.S. and Iranian officials held their first talks since June, as signals suggested little willingness to reach a ceasefire, and settled $1.64 higher at $92.16 a barrel as traders evaluated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's vow never to surrender, after US President Trump warned he could "annihilate" Iran….oil prices fell during early Asian trading on Thursday, as Iran said it remained open to diplomacy to end the war with the United States, but then jumped about 4% to a one-week high during US trading after Yemen's Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia and diplomatic talks between the US and Iran showed little sign of progress, and settled $2.45 higher at $94.61 a barrel as the Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia revived fears of supply disruptions, while reports of US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz subsequently tempered the gains…oil prices edged lower during Asian trading on Friday as markets weighed conflicting factors, including the possibility of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran and ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, then slid further Friday morning in New York on revived direct negotiations between the U.S. Iranian diplomats in New York for the first time since June, sparking market optimism about a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and settled $2.20 lower at $92.41 a barrel after Iran's foreign minister offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days if the US meets his terms….oil prices thus finished 7.9% lower for the week, while the price of the benchmark US oil contract for November delivery, which had ended the prior week at $96.08 a barrel, finished this one 3.8% lower..
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the sixth time in seven weeks on falling production from domestic wells as another smaller than normal injection of gas into storage further reduced the surplus inventory….after rising 2.9% to $2.912 per mmBTU last week on an increase in LNG demand and on forecasts for warmer than normal forecasts through early October, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for October delivery opened 6.1 cents lower on Monday, after losing ground in pre-market trading, as cooler temperatures took hold and scheduled LNG maintenance limited exports, then dropped again after a brief early rally to settle 7.6 cents lower at $2.836 per mmBTU amid healthy supply readings and forecasts for benign weather through the final stretch of September and into early October….the front-month natural gas contract opened 1.1 cents lower on Tuesday, but rose through the morning as production levels from US wells fell to nearly a two-month low, and settled 12.9 cents higher at $2.965 per mmBTU on bargain buying and the bullish natural gas market fundamentals of easing production and a shrinking storage inventory surplus...natural gas prices opened 7.4 cents higher on Wednesday and rose to an eleven-week intraday high of $3.042 ahead of 9:05 AM, then fell back to reach an intraday low of $2.959 at 10:15 AM, as traders struggled to find a balance between cooling weather, lower production, and short covering, then arced higher once again to settled 5.8 cents higher at $3.023 per mmBTU as short covering and colder overnight forecasts outweighed the weakest power burn since Labor Day….natural gas prices started 2.2 cents lower on Thursday and traded near $3.005 through the day’s opening hour, then spiked upwards as the historically bullish weekly storage report hit the wire and hit a 14-month intraday high of $3.317 at 1:45 PM, before closing 27.4 cents higher $3.297 per mmBTU, the biggest one-day gain since January, on a seasonally lean storage print, lighter production and hints of heating demand, and on a natural gas leak on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia…natural gas futures retreated early Friday from the three-month high of Thursday, as traders weighed how long a force majeure on the leaking Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline could hold back Lower 48 production, and were down by 14.5 cents by midday, as the pipeline leak in the heart of the Appalachian natural gas patch exacerbated typical expiration week volatility, as nearly 1.8 million Dth/d of firm takeaway capacity was expected to remain offline through the weekend, and settled 10.1 cents lower at $3.196 per mmBTU, as traders took profits following a pronounced rally that sent prices to their highest levels since the peak of summer, leaving October natural gas prices up 9.8% on the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending September 18th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 53 billion cubic feet to 3,351 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 146 billion cubic feet, or 4.2% below the 3,497 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on September 18th of last year, but 95 billion cubic feet, or 2.9% above the five-year average of 3,256 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 18th of September over the most recent five years….the 53 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was a little less than the 56 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, while it was considerably less than the 77 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 76 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the third week in September over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 18th showed that after a big drop in our oil exports and a big decrease in our oil refining, we had surplus oil left to add to our stored crude supplies for the just the second time in twenty-two weeks, and for the 27th time in sixty-nine weeks, with a decrease in the domestic supply of oil the EIA could not account for also contributing…. Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,181,000 barrels per day to 5,877,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 234,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,550,000 barrels per day to average 3,281,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,596,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 11th, an average of 369,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 6,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 428,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 5,000 barrels per day lower at 13,939,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,963,000 barrels per day during the September 18th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,811,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 11th, an average of 519,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net of 366,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending September 18th averaged a rounded 215,000 fewer barrels per day than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +215,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Since 577,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 362,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and therefore aren’t very useful….However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).
This week’s rounded 366,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 424,000 barrels per day were added to our commercial stocks of crude oil, while 58,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the twenty-sixth consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR, which left the SPR level at 284,552,000 barrels, the lowest since it was initially being filled in October 1982....Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,632,000 barrels per day last week, which was 5.3% more than the 6,300,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports fell to 4,003,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.3% less than the 4,098,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 5,000 barrels per day lower at 13,939,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 13,484,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 8,000 barrels per day lower at 463,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 6.4% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 43.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 94.0% of their capacity while processing those 16,811,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 18th, down from 96.8% the prior week, but still higher than normal for mid-September….the 16,811,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 2.0% more than the 16,476,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending September 19th of 2025, and 1.8% more than the 16,513,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending September 20th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.8%, which was a bit below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 54,000 barrels per day to 9,590,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 18th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 366,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 1.2% less than the 9,707,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending September 19th of last year, and 6.3% les than the gasoline production of 10,240,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending September 20th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 68,000 barrels per day to 5,159,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 121,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after those production decreases, our distillates output was 3.5% more than the 4,984,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 19th of 2025, and 3.2% more than the 5,000,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending September 20th, 2019....
With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the twenty-fifth time in thirty-two weeks, decreasing by 1,686,000 barrels to 206,046,000 barrels during the week ending September 18th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 794,000 barrels to a 42 week low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 49,000 barrels per day to 8,847000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 136,000 barrels per day to 401,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 117,000 barrels per day to 838,000 barrels per day… After fifty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-three weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.9% lower than last September 19th’s gasoline inventories of 216,569,000 barrels, and about 6% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…
After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the fourteenth time in thirty-two weeks, decreasing by 428,000 barrels to 107,431,000 barrels during the week ending September 18th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 1,585,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 474,000 barrels per day to 3,975,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 283,000 barrels per day to 1,331,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 29,000 barrels per day to a fifty two week low of 85,000 barrels per day... After 29 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 62 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 12.7% lower than the 122,999,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 19th of 2025, and were about 12% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the drop in our oil exports and the slowdown in our refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 27th time over the past year, increasing by 2,969,000 barrels over the week, from 423,429,000 barrels on September 11th to 424,069,000 barrels on September 18th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 640,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 2% above recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and they were about 30% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s increase was the first in four weeks, and as of September 18th our commercial crude inventories were 2.8% above the 414,754,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 19th of 2025, and were 3.2% more than the 413,042,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 20th of 2024, and 2.4% more than the 416,287,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on September 22nd of 2023…
This Week's Rig Count
The US rig count increased by four to a 28 month high over the week ending September 25th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by three, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by one, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 25th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (September 18th) and this week’s (September 25th) count, the third column shows last week’s September 18th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 26th of September, 2025…
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Digging danger: 10 Investigates tracks gas line strikes across central Ohio — According to OHIO811, the number of people digging in the state is on the rise.Roger Lipscomb, the president and CEO of the statewide nonprofit, said the agency got 1.6 million requests to dig in 2025."Excavation activity in Ohio has continued to be record volumes year after year," he said.He also confirmed to 10 Investigates that much of the demand to dig is rooted in the fiber-optic future."Those guys are all tripping over each other trying to get in there and be the first on your road," he said.But he added that old underground lines, poor record-keeping and crews rushing the work can all contribute to damage."The result of that is we're having conflicts, we're having problems," he said.Walt Pretko lives in northeast Columbus. He told 10 Investigates that in June, a crew drilling to lay fiber optic cables for AT&T nicked a gas line.Columbia Gas confirmed the incident to 10 Investigates in the following statement: "Columbia Gas responded to a damaged gas line in the Creek Ridge community in late June. Repairs have been completed, and service is operating normally. We are unable to provide additional information at this time." Pretko said that the crew also avoided nicking another utility line by an inch."We were told by Columbia Gas six to eight houses would have been destroyed, had the electric been hit at the same time the gas was," he said. "We feel very fortunate at this point in time."The City of Columbus previously confirmed to 10 Investigates that it temporarily paused work in that community after the same crew hit several other utility lines in a one-mile radius and due to issues with the work permit.In July, an AT&T spokesperson also confirmed the work pause in a statement, but didn't respond to our questions about the quality of the work itself: "We apologize to residents for the disruption these incidents have caused. We take these concerns very seriously and temporarily paused work while we coordinated with our contractor and the city to help prevent any further impacts as we work to bring high-speed fiber internet to this community." 10 Investigates wanted to know how often crews doing this kind of work were hitting gas lines. But we learned that no public agency had a complete list. So, we worked to build our own. To do that, 10 Investigates sent the following request to more than 40 different fire departments across Franklin, Fairfield and Delaware counties:"I wanted to request any incident reports from your department related to utility strikes, gas leaks, gas line ruptures, fires, explosions, or other emergency incidents involving directional drilling, core drilling, horizontal directional drilling (HDD), boring, missiling, or other underground utility installation activities." 10 Investigates heard back from 30 of the 44 agencies. Twenty-two sent records. Six said they had no responsive records, and two said they couldn’t specifically search for gas leak calls caused by this type of work.
Several Northeast Ohio homes have been rocked by explosions in recent months. Here’s what happened - Cleveland.com - — A vacant Cleveland home exploded early Wednesday, the latest in a series of house explosions and blast-related incidents reported across Northeast Ohio in recent months. Notable incidents have also occurred in Canton and Twinsburg Township, destroying homes, damaging neighboring properties and injuring several people. The causes have varied, and in at least one case, gas was involved. However, causes of others remain under investigation.Here’s a look at recent incidents:
- Cleveland — Sept. 23: A vacant house near East 160th Street and Miles Avenue exploded and caught fire around 4:50 a.m. Wednesday, according to the Cleveland Division of Fire.The roof collapsed and heat from the fire melted the siding on an adjacent home. The neighboring house also sustained exterior damage, with officials estimating the total damage at about $200,000.No injuries were reported.The cause remains under investigation, said Lt. Mike Norman, a Cleveland Fire spokesman.“House explosions are rare and most are the result of someone tampering with or disconnecting a gas line,” Norman said.Residents should be familiar with the smell of natural gas, which has an odor similar to rotten eggs, Norman said. Anyone who smells gas should call 911 or the gas company, he said.
- Canton — July 30: A more destructive explosion happened July 30 at a vacant home on Bonnot Place NE in Canton. The explosion, reported shortly before 4 a.m., destroyed the house and caused significant damage to several nearby properties.Two men, Justin J. Bruce, 41, of Canton, and Michael L. Mullins, 30, were seriously injured and hospitalized with burns. One man was thrown into the street by the blast, while the other was found blocks away.The house had recently been renovated, according to fire officials.The blast scattered debris throughout the neighborhood, damaged nearby homes and knocked down power lines. The explosion also led to a criminal case. Authorities allege Bruce and Mullins entered the vacant home before the blast. Both men were charged with breaking and entering and nine counts of aggravated arson. Ty Graham, the Stark County attorney representing Mullins, said it was too soon to comment on the case. An attorney for Bruce did not return calls seeking comment.
- Twinsburg Township — June 25: The most widespread damage came from an explosion in Twinsburg Township on June 25. A contractor working on a fiber-optic excavation project near Hiram Lane struck an underground natural gas line, causing a leak. Firefighters were already at the scene investigating the smell of gas when the explosion occurred.Three homes were destroyed and at least 36 others were damaged. Two people were hospitalized, including one person injured by the blast. Both were later released.The explosion sent debris throughout the neighborhood and prompted officials to restrict access to the area as investigators, utility crews and engineers examined the damage.The blast also prompted several Northeast Ohio communities to temporarily halt or review directional drilling operations as they examined their safety procedures.Hudson, Stow, Green and Kent were among the communities that took steps to pause or review underground drilling operations after the explosion.Twinsburg later adopted additional requirements for underground utility work, including stronger utility-location procedures and increased oversight of contractors. Drilling resumed in September under the new requirements.
The recent incidents have had different causes, and investigators have not determined the cause of every explosion. But the consequences have been similar: destroyed or damaged homes, injuries and neighborhoods left dealing with cleanup and repairs.Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer reached out to the state’s fire marshal for additional comments. Cleveland’s latest explosion also comes about a year after another devastating blast in the city. In June 2025, an explosion at the Rainbow Terrace apartment complex in Cleveland’s Garden Valley neighborhood killed one man and left two children with serious burns. The explosion destroyed 44 apartments and displaced at least 120 residents.
Williams, Caiman partner up in Utica Shale - Williams Partners and Caiman Energy have formed a joint venture – a midstream company focused on Utica Shale. The startup is backed with $800m from Williams, EnCap and Highstar. details via Google:
- Williams Partners’ Stake: Williams Partners contributed $380 million to develop pipelines and processing facilities across eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. [1, 2]
- Private Equity Backing: Private equity firms EnCap Flatrock Midstream and Highstar Capital served as core funding partners alongside Caiman management. EnCap projected up to $285 million in funding, while Highstar committed up to $95 million. [1, 2, 3]
- Strategic Alignment: The initiative directly leverages the geographical proximity of Williams Partners' existing midstream business footprint spanning West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. [1]
This joint venture builds upon Williams' previous $2.5 billion acquisition of Caiman Eastern Midstream, cementing their dominant infrastructure presence across both the Marcellus and Utica formations. [1, 2]
Shell Cracker Blast: 6 Minutes from Wrong Click to $95M Explosion -Marcellus Drilling News -- The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) last Wednesday, Sept. 16, released its final report on the June 4, 2025, explosion and fire at Shell Polymers Monaca, the ethane cracker plant in Beaver County, PA (see PA DEP Says Shell Ethane Plant Fire May Have Released Carcinogens). The finding, boiled down to one sentence: an engineer who had never done the job before opened the wrong valve on a computer screen where three nearly identical valves were stacked on top of each other, and six minutes later Furnace 5 blew apart. Damage: $95 million. Injuries: none. OSHA’s fine: $26,480.
17 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Sep 14 – 20 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The Marcellus/Utica region received 17 new drilling permits last week, September 14 – 20, up 1 from the 16 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 6 of the new permits. Ohio also issued 6 new permits. And West Virginia issued 5 new permits. The drillers who received new permits last week were: Ascent Resources, EOG Resources, EQT, Expand Energy, and Seneca Resources. Allegheny County | Ascent Resources | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Guernsey County | Marshall County | Seneca Resources | Sullivan County | Tioga County (PA) | Tuscarawas County
National Fuel Gas evaluates options for its $5 billion natural gas business – U.S. company National Fuel Gas is exploring various strategic alternatives for its integrated natural gas production business, a unit that could reach a valuation close to $5 billion. According to people familiar with the deliberations cited by Reuters, the analysis includes a full or partial sale, a merger with another publicly traded U.S. producer, or a spin-off to create an independent company. The review includes Seneca Resources and National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, two businesses that concentrate a significant portion of the group’s gas production and transport activity. For its part, Seneca Resources carries out natural gas exploration and production activities in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations in the Appalachians. The company produces approximately 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, according to National Fuel’s earnings presentation for July. Additionally, National Fuel Gas Midstream Company provides infrastructure services to move gas from production areas to higher-capacity pipelines that subsequently supply consumers. Seneca and related infrastructure represent nearly 69% of National Fuel’s adjusted EBITDA, according to the same corporate presentation cited by Reuters. This share requires the company to cautiously evaluate any eventual asset separation. Furthermore, National Fuel is working with financial advisors, including Goldman Sachs, to study possible scenarios related to this unit. Sources consulted noted that alternatives include a full or partial divestiture, a combination with another U.S. producer, or a spin-off through the creation of an independent publicly traded company. However, the strategic review does not guarantee that a transaction will take place. The process reportedly gained momentum after National Fuel received an expression of interest for its natural gas production business in early 2026. The identity of the potential interested party and the scope of those contacts were not disclosed. On the other hand, an eventual divestiture could free up capital to expand National Fuel’s regulated utility business. Regulated operations offer more predictable revenues than natural gas production, the profitability of which depends more heavily on energy market prices. This point gains relevance in the United States given the growth in electricity demand associated with data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and industrial electrification processes. National Fuel could also use the proceeds from a possible transaction to fund growth, reduce debt, or strengthen its position within the gas distribution business. The company’s current structure combines natural gas production, midstream infrastructure, and regulated utilities. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, National Fuel trades at around 11.2 times its earnings, while some specialized natural gas utilities exceed 16 times. In contrast, the major U.S. shale gas producers analyzed by LSEG trade in an approximate range of between 8 and 12.4 times their earnings. This difference helps explain why separating assets could modify National Fuel’s financial profile. Even so, Seneca Resources’ strong contribution to the group’s results makes any decision a process with significant effects on the remaining business. Finally, Seneca Resources’ weight in the Marcellus and Utica keeps these formations as central elements of any strategic scenario. Shale Directories also highlighted the potential sale of Seneca Resources and National Fuel Gas Midstream Company within its coverage of major U.S. shale gas basins. For now, National Fuel has not announced a definitive transaction, and alternatives remain under evaluation.
Europeans Came to Pittsburgh Shopping for LNG; EQT Made a Sale -- Marcellus Drilling News - Back in March, a delegation of European heavyweights came to Pittsburgh with their shopping bags, looking to buy more U.S. LNG. Leading the charge was Jovita Neliupšiene, a Lithuanian who now serves as the EU’s ambassador to the U.S. Looks like they found what they were shopping for — in Pittsburgh. Lithuanian state-owned energy company Ignitis has picked a subsidiary of Pittsburgh-based EQT Corporation, one of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, to supply it with 10 cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — one per year from 2027 through 2036. EQT beat out other bidders in a competitive tender. It’s the first long-term gas supply contract between Ignitis and a U.S. company. Small deal? Yes. Symbolic deal? Very much so.
Fracking flourishes amid data center surge in Western Pa. - Data center development across Western Pennsylvania has spurred renewed growth in another hotly debated industry. Fracking, the extraction of oil and natural gas from underground rock, jumped 50% from 2024 to 2025, according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. There were 428 new wells last year, up from about 285 in 2024. Abundant amounts of natural gas are needed to power data centers and similar energy-intensive sites like telecommunication hubs and cold storage warehouses. Data from the DEP shows 2025 was the busiest season for digging new wells since 2022, when there were 574 unconventional wells started. Washington and Greene counties are among the most heavily drilled in the state, with 2,166 wells and 1,621 wells, respectively. In Westmoreland, there have been about 420 wells recorded since 2007, spread across Hempfield, Murrysville, Upper Burrell, Penn Township and other areas. Allegheny County has about 220 active fracking sites in rural areas like Fawn, Frazer, Indiana Township, Plum and West Deer. The projects have spawned tension between environmentally concerned residents and some municipal officials who welcome drilling because of the financial boon. Since well drilling began in earnest in Upper Burrell, for instance, the township has received “well over $1 million” from activity at five well pads, said Ross Walker III, chairman of the township’s board of supervisors. That’s almost as much as this year’s entire township budget of $1.3 million. But that doesn’t satisfy activists, like Gillian Graber, who fear air pollution, groundwater contamination, possibly induced earthquakes and water scarcity. Graber, executive director and co-founder of grassroots environmental group Protect PT, said fracking requires millions of gallons of fresh water per well. Her group, founded in 2014, monitors industrial developments and works to hold officials accountable to protect natural resources. Protect PT provides education and resources to help empower residents as government watchdogs. “I don’t think we should have to adapt to make concessions for an industry that makes billions of dollars while our health is impacted and our quality of life,” Graber said. Wells in Pennsylvania are concentrated mostly in the western and north-central regions to tap into the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. Marcellus shale, found throughout the Allegheny Plateau, runs across Western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, western Maryland and most of West Virginia. It consists mostly of black shale and limestone beds, with concentrations of pyrite. It splits easily. The Utica shale, stretching from Ohio through Pennsylvania and New York into Canada, is one of the country’s largest reserves of natural gas and oil. It runs even deeper than the better-known Marcellus. The Utica is often as deep as 14,000 feet below the surface, which is about 4,000 to 6,000 feet deeper than the Marcellus, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Over the past two decades, fracking revolutionized the country’s energy market by unleashing previously inaccessible reserves of oil and gas. The industry has pumped money into local municipalities like Allegheny Township, according to supervisor Chairman Jamie Morabito. He said CNX, which has drilling operations in Washington and Bell townships and seeks to expand operations in the area, in June gifted the township $25,000 to be used toward the purchase of a police vehicle. Morabito called it a good-faith gesture. Environmental concerns, however, have spurred prolonged and expensive arguments over where and how many wells should be permitted by local governments. State legislators are mulling several bills that would increase buffer zones between well pads and homes, schools and hospitals, as fracking is expected to ramp up to fuel a recent demand for data centers, the facilities that house networked computers, servers and storage for digital applications. The Environmental Integrity Project, Clean Air Council and others are rallying for fracking setbacks to widen by more than 2,500 feet, from 500 to 3,281 feet, from any building or drinking water well to protect what they call endangered public health. They want even greater setbacks of 5,280 feet, or one mile, from schools and hospitals. “The majority of the data-center buildout will be powered by fracked gas,” Matt Kelso, manager of data and technology at nonprofit FracTracker Alliance, told Inside Climate News in August. According to Data Center Proposal Tracker, there are 86 proposed, preliminary or expanding data center sites in Pennsylvania.. “It will require not just the wells but pipelines, trucking, water usage, injection wells,” Kelso said. “This will allow the industry to pump the gas from where it is, safely locked in the ground, to the data centers or to the power plants that provide their electricity.” Ravi Madhavan, professor of business administration at the University of Pittsburgh, said it doesn’t have to be a “good-versus-bad story.” “It’s a problem of concentrated benefits and socialized costs,” Madhavan said. “If the data center is allowed, the benefits are immediate for shareholders and employees. “But the concern is that, in order to accommodate it, there are costs passed down to the public. That is where the challenge comes in, to make sure there is transparency over everything.” In West Deer, residents rallied but lost a battle this year against EQT to install a dehydrator and compressor at the Leto well pad off Oak Road. The permit was approved by Allegheny County in May, with operations beginning July 1. Vicki Austin, a member of the Concerned Residents of West Deer (CROWD), said she feels sick about the new equipment that she claims comes with a disturbing level of noise and air pollution. “We’ve been told that the compressor station will have 24/7 noise, so not looking forward to that,” she said. “The dehydrator unit had to go through clearance with the Allegheny County Health Department air quality division because it would emit tons of pollutants into the local air every year, so not happy about that, either.” Tri-ethylene glycol dehydrators are used in the oil and gas industry to remove water from gas. The fight was the most recent since CROWD was founded in 2020 to fight a then-plan by Olympus Energy to build the Dionysus well in West Deer. Supervisors unanimously denied that project in December 2021. EQT did not respond to TribLive’s requests for comments about the dehydrator. But a legal ad published before the company’s request said the equipment could create more than 70 tons of chemical emissions annually. The emissions are projected to include nearly 40 tons of volatile organic compounds, more than 18 tons of carbon monoxide, around 8 tons of nitrogen oxides, almost 4 tons of hazardous air pollutants and just over 1 ton of particulate matter. Ronnie Das, Allegheny County Health Department spokesperson, said community feedback and involvement in the project remain critical. “We want residents to report concerns, ask questions and be part of the solution,” Das said. In Westmoreland County, more than 6,100 fracking wells have been drilled since 2007. “When we started organizing, we were really going off of information that other people, particularly from Washington County, were telling us about the impact,” said Graber, whose Protect PT group started as a grassroots effort in 2014. “But then we very, very quickly — as soon as we saw the first well pad in our community — saw what was exactly going to happen. “There’s grinding noise that keeps people up at night. Truck traffic is a huge problem — damage to roadways, spills and contamination from a truck overturning. We have that happening in our community.” Brian Aiello, CNX vice president of external affairs, told TribLive that he believes the company’s relationship with the communities where it operates “is extremely collaborative in nature.” “We quickly respond to any concerns and design our operations to align specifically with the individual needs of each community,” he said. “In our experience, meritless appeals from environmental front groups do not represent the views of most residents and generally are not determinative of our priorities or schedule. “We aim to leave a lasting positive impact and ensure the communities where we operate are better off because we were there.” There are 74 wells in Penn Township, with additional sites proposed. Those are spread across nine pads. State regulatory bodies evaluate and permit wells on a case-by-case basis rather than enforcing a hard cap per pad, according to Protect PT. Most modern unconventional pads hold between five and 20 wells. Highly contested in Penn Township is the Drakulic well pad along First Street, near the Trafford border and within a mile of about 3,000 residents. It sits near Graber’s home. She said Protect PT has battled 11 years to shut down the CNX-proposed development, filing several lawsuits and appeals before finally scoring a temporary victory — the CNX drill and operation permits for the site expired recently. Protect PT communications manager Noah Bedard said the permits cannot be renewed and CNX was ordered to remediate the land. CNX would have to start the application process again if it hopes to frack there. Aiello, the CNX official, did not specifically address the reapplication but said, “We regularly optimize our operational schedule based on numerous internal and external factors. “We continuously assess all our assets, including those in Penn Township, for future development opportunities,” he said in an email. Madhavan, the Pitt professor, said Pennsylvania has taken an active role in implementing policies that ensure transparency and safety. They include requiring companies to disclose chemicals used in drilling and hydraulic fracturing earlier in the process. In addition to a demand for data centers, the export of natural gas and the retirement of coal-fired plants have played a role in the increase in fracking regionally. “Data centers are the big one. The idea of bringing your own power rather than drawing from the grid has become a big factor,” Madhavan said. “(Natura) gas is the first fuel of choice.”
Trump Admin Backs Pipeline in SCOTUS Landowner Legal Fee Fight - Marcellus Drilling News -- The Trump administration has formally sided with a pipeline company in a U.S. Supreme Court case that could change how much money landowners get when a pipeline takes their land by eminent domain. On Sept. 21, the U.S. Solicitor General filed a brief backing WBI Energy Transmission in Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission (No. 25-159). The feds want to argue alongside WBI when the case is heard on Nov. 9. The case began in North Dakota’s Bakken, but the ruling will reach all shale plays, including Pennsylvania, where landowners currently enjoy more generous rules.
DEP Issues Violations To Mifflin Energy Resources LLC For Abandoning, Not Plugging 16 Conventional Oil & Gas Wells In Greene County - On September 9, 10, 11, 14 & 15, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection issued violations to Mifflin Energy Resources LLC for abandoning and not plugging 16 conventional oil and gas wells in Washington and Greene Townships, Greene County.The wells in Washington Township include Alvie L. Black ET UX 1, Anthony V. Petraitis 2, Anthony V. Petraitis 5, Anthony V. Petraitis 6, Beasley 4, Beasley 5, Thomas L. Beasley ET UX 4, Charles Headlee 2, Charles Headlee 3, Margaret E. Shoup 1, Margaret E. Shoup 2, Margaret E. Shoup 3, Margaret E. Shoup 6, and Margaret E. Shoup 7. The wells in Greene Township include James V. Filiaggi 1PK5 and Charles J. Hartley 1PK6. Violations were issued and a response requested by October 7. Mifflin Energy Resources LLC holds 39 permits. To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.
DEP: Complaint Inspection Finds Slope Failure, Erosion & Sedimentation Violations Along Equitrans Water SVC (PA) LLC [EQT] Shale Gas Water Pipeline In Washington County - On September 16 & 18, 2026, DEP inspected the Equitrans Water SVC (PA) LLC [EQT] NIMCH006 shale gas water pipeline in response to a complaint and found a slope failure and multiple erosion and sedimentation violations along its route in Union Township, Washington County.The September 16 inspection focused on the complaint of a slope failure into a stream along the pipeline route. DEP found the slope failure and erosion washed sediment into the stream. Materials used in plantings on the slope were washed downstream approximately 60 feet and off the permit area. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. The September 18 inspection focused on other nearby areas on the pipeline route and found multiple erosion and sedimentation violations and wash out areas. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. Multiple violations were issued in each inspection report and a response was requested by October 7. All reports of slope failures along pipeline routes are taken seriously because a slope failure in the right place can put stress on a pipeline and cause it to rupture, as has happened in Pennsylvania.
DEP: Tank Truck Releases Contaminated Water On Access Road Leading To EQT ARO LLC DCNR Shale Gas Well Pad In Lycoming County. -On September 21, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the EQT ARO LLC DCNR Tract 027B shale gas well pad in response to a notification of a spill of contaminated water from a tank truck at about 8:00 a.m. in McHenry Township, Lycoming County. DEP found the truck has released the contaminated water from a faulty sight glass that shows how much fluid is in the truck for approximately 415 feet in three areas on the access road. In one area the contaminated water flowed through a culvert off the road. EQT was investigating how much of the contaminated water had spilled on the road and off the road edge. While DEP was onsite, a contractor began removing contaminated soil/stone from the access road. Multiple violations were issued and a response was requested by October 13. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.
Susquehanna River Basin Commission Approved 35 Shale Gas Well Pad Water Use General Permits In August; 258 In 2026 -The Susquehanna River Basin Commission published notice in the September 26 PA Bulletin the Executive Director gave his approval to or renewed 35 general water use permits in June for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga and Wyoming counties.So far in 2026, SRBC issued 258 shale gas-related general permits.A separate water withdrawal approval is required by SRBC for actually withdrawing water from a specific water source for use by shale gas drilling operations. Read more here. So far in 2026, SRBC has issued three new shale gas water withdrawal approval. Read more here. Information available on pending and issued water withdrawals is available on SRBC’s Water Application and Approval Viewer webpage. Here is the list of new general permits renewed or issued in August:
DEP Posted 73 Pages Of Permit-Related Notices In September 26 PA Bulletin - Highlights of the environmental and energy notices in the September 26 PA Bulletin--
- -- PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - September 26 [PaEN]
- -- DEP released a copy of a September 22 Air Quality Plan Approval and comment/response document it issued for the Shell Petrochemical Plant in Potter and Center Townships, Beaver County on September 25, 2026..The permit covers multiple sources of air pollution at the facility, including ethylene emissions and air pollution controls on ground flares, the wastewater treatment plant and as-built air pollution controls. Read more here. The permit is now being reviewed by community and citizen groups who raised a series of concerns about ongoing environmental and health impacts and the poor compliance record of the facility. Read more here.
- -- DEP published notice in the September 26 PA Bulletin inviting comments on a Chapter 105 permit for a PA General Energy Co., LLC 3.9 mile long permanent Saluda access road and staging area to support shale gas development in the Loyalsock State Forest in Gamble and Cascade Townships, Lycoming County. (PA Bulletin, page 6011) Read more here.On May 6, 2026, DEP denied a Chapter 105 permit for this project saying-- “PGE failed to properly address the mitigation of all stream impacts, provide plans showing that the access road is properly graded in relation to the stream relocation and adjacent stormwater control measures, and provide clarification and detail concerning potential bridge design effects on the Proposed Project’s limits.” Read more here.
- -- On September 23, the US Environmental Protection Agency published notice inviting comments on the reissuance of an expired EXCO Resources (PA) LLC Irvin A-19 oil and gas waste UIC Class IID disposal injection well permit for a facility located in Bell Township, Clearfield County. A virtual hearing is scheduled for October 27, if requested by the public. Read more here.
- -- The Susquehanna River Basin Commission published notice in the September 26 PA Bulletin the Executive Director gave his approval to or renewed 35 general water use permits in June for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga and Wyoming counties. Read more here.
Butler Co. Data Center Plans 300 MW Behind-the-Meter Gas Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News - Another big data center is heading to western Pennsylvania, and this one plans to make its own power with a natural gas-fired plant, right next door to a shale gas well pad. A Florida LLC and a Coraopolis microgrid company have filed preliminary plans for the Misty Hollow Energy & Data Campus: a 1-million-square-foot data center and a 300-megawatt power generation facility on a former dairy farm along Prospect Road (PA Route 528) in Forward Township, Butler County. The site sits next to a PennEnergy Resources well pad, and the township engineer wants a letter from PennEnergy signing off on the plan’s revised access to that pad. The developer now confirms the 300 MW plant will run on natural gas, and it will power the campus “behind the meter,” off the grid. Correction, Sept. 24, 2026: An earlier version of this story said PennEnergy Resources would give the project access to its well pad. The township engineer’s review letter actually asks for an acknowledgment letter from PennEnergy about revised access to PennEnergy’s own well pad. We regret the error. The story has also been updated with a statement from the developer.
Only 1 of 22 NEPA Data Centers Plans Its Own Gas Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The Scranton Times-Tribune just did something genuinely useful: it put all 22 proposed data center campuses in Lackawanna, Luzerne and Schuylkill counties (northeastern Pennsylvania) into one place, with location, acreage, building count, status, power source and cooling method for each. We read every entry looking for the answer to one question — who’s going to burn Marcellus gas to run these things? The answer, and it surprised us, is almost nobody. Of 22 projects, exactly one proposes building its own natural gas generation. The other 21 plan to plug into somebody else’s wires and let PJM sort it out.
20 GW of New Gas-Fired Power: SWPA Does What NEPA Doesn’t --- Marcellus Drilling News - In a companion post today, we told you that of 22 proposed data center campuses in Northeastern Pennsylvania, exactly one plans to build its own gas-fired power (see Only 1 of 22 NEPA Data Centers Plans Its Own Gas Plant). The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hands us the mirror image. Reporter Anya Litvak counted 10 new natural gas power plants proposed within an hour’s drive of Pittsburgh — more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity, most of it chasing data center demand, all of it aimed at the next five years. Pennsylvania’s entire existing generating fleet, every power plant and wind turbine and solar panel in the state, adds up to about 45 GW. Southwestern PA alone is proposing to add 22 GW. That is not an expansion. That is a second Pennsylvania grid.
Alpha Compute’s 2nd PA Data Center Site Comes with 75 Oil Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - Alpha Compute Corp. (Nasdaq: ALP), the tiny AI outfit that wants to build a 200 MW gas-fired data center in Tioga County (see MDN Was Right: Alpha Compute Data Center Is in Tioga County), is now buying an old-fashioned oil field somewhere else in Pennsylvania. Yesterday (Sept. 22), the company said it signed “definitive real estate and asset purchase agreements” to buy 300+ acres, 75+ existing oil and gas wells, pump jacks, a maintenance shop, heavy equipment, and gathering lines, all for $5.5 million. It plans to put a second data center on the site. What the company did NOT say: where the property is, or who’s selling it. And some of the numbers in the release are, let’s say, ambitious.
Expand Energy Sees LNG Demand in Driver’s Seat as Data Center Resistance Grows - Expand Energy, the nation’s largest natural gas producer, expects US power demand growth to materialize slower than many expect as resistance to data centers grows and the company instead anticipates LNG exports to drive much of the industry’s growth over the next decade or so. NGPL TexOk natural gas spot prices spike near $16/MMBtu in 2026, while forward prices through 2036 show recurring winter premiums. At a Glance:
Power generation growth less predictable
Haynesville seen as key to LNG
$4.50 needed for growth in 2040
EQT CEO: Shut-Ins Worth $200M a Year; Record Output Coming in 2026 - Marcellus Drilling News -- When Appalachian gas prices fall into the basement, EQT turns down the valves, and CEO Toby Rice says the strategy is paying off. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Rice put a dollar figure on it for the first time: a little over $200 million a year in benefit from selling less gas when prices are low and more when they’re high. He also said EQT, the country’s No. 2 gas producer, will pump more gas in 2026 than last year while spending less to do it. Rice talked up the company’s proposed POWER Pipeline to Ohio, its Mountain Valley Pipeline expansions, and a new 10-year LNG supply deal with Lithuania. His outlook for global gas demand is, let’s say, very bullish.
EQT sees higher 2026 US natgas output on lower spending, CEO says - (Reuters) - EQT, the second-biggest US natural gas producer, plans to pull more gas out of the ground in 2026 while spending less money than last year to meet growing global demand, CEO Toby Rice told Reuters on Tuesday. He said record production will come despite curtailed production in recent months by EQT and others in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. The producers are waiting for gas prices in the region to rise. "We have a shut-in program. During times of low prices, we sell less. When prices are higher, we sell more," Rice said. "Having a business that's able to throttle the production aligned with what the market requires ... is one of the reasons we've been able to beat our pricing expectations," Rice said. He said EQT has benefited by a little over $200 million a year from its ability to sell less gas when prices are low and more when prices are high. In its second-quarter earnings in July, EQT reduced 2026 maintenance capital spending guidance by $25 million to a range of $2.040 billion to $2.190 billion. It boosted its production guidance for the year by 0.25 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (bcfed) to an average of 6.5 to 6.7 bcfed. That compares with spending of of around $2.324 billion in 2025 to produce an average of 6.5 bcfed. One billion cubic feet is enough gas to supply about five million US homes for a day. On average, the US consumed a record 91.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas in 2025 and exported a record 24.6 bcfd as liquefied natural gas to the world or via pipelines to Mexico and Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA and other analysts expect US gas use to keep hitting record highs in coming years as demand surges to power data centers and for export as LNG and by pipeline. "We're really pushing to find ways to expand demand for Appalachian molecules," Rice said. In August, EQT launched an open season for its proposed POWER pipeline project to move up to 1.0 bcfd of gas about 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Pennsylvania to Ohio, where several firms plan to build or expand power-hungry data centers running artificial intelligence. EQT told prospective customers the pipe could enter service in January 2030 and Rice said the POWER pipe could move more than 1.0 bcfd depending on demand. In addition to the proposed POWER pipe, EQT has been expanding its 2.0-bcfd Mountain Valley Pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia. That project, known as MVP Boost, is on track to add about 0.6 bcfd of capacity to the mainline in 2028. The MVP Southgate project is on track to start moving about 0.55 bcfd of gas from Virginia to North Carolina starting in late 2026. On Monday, EQT signed a 10-year deal to supply about one LNG cargo per year to Lithuania's majority state-owned energy firm Ignitis. "We're incredibly bullish on the international markets," Rice said. He said EQT sees gas demand growing through 2040 by around 20 bcfd in domestic markets and by around 200 bcfd in international markets. EQT will have about 6 million tonnes per year of LNG (roughly 0.8 bcfd of gas) available to sell around 2030-2031 when some LNG export plants under construction and development enter service, including NextDecade's Rio Grande in Texas, Sempra's (SRE.N), opens new tab Port Arthur in Texas and Caturus' Commonwealth in Louisiana. That is about 15% of the company's gas portfolio.
PJM Weighs Greater Reliability Credit for Firm Natural Gas Supply - The largest US grid operator spanning the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest is deciding whether natural gas-fired power plants with firm pipeline transportation or storage should receive more credit for reliability. NGI Forward Natural Gas Prices show winter premiums building across key US markets. At a Glance:
Firm pipeline capacity increasingly scarce
Winter PJM gas premiums widen sharply
Storage gains importance for reliability
WV Pipeline Leak Knocks 1.8 Bcf/d Offline, Gas Futures Jump 9.1% - Marcellus Drilling News --On Thursday morning, a natural gas leak at the Saunders Creek Regulator Station near Milton, WV (Cabell County) forced TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) to declare "force majeure" on the Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline, one of the biggest Marcellus/Utica takeaway pipes in the region. Starting with today's gas day (Friday, Sept. 25), the affected segment of MXP is cut to zero capacity until further notice. TCO estimates the hit to firm customers at 1.8 million dekatherms (MMDth) per day, which is roughly 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of Appalachian gas that suddenly needs somewhere else to go. Traders noticed. The October NYMEX futures contract settled up 27.4 cents (+9.06%) at $3.297 per MMBtu, the highest in about three months and the biggest one-day gain since January.
NatGas Spikes As Major West Virginia Pipeline Declares Force Majeure (maps and graphics) TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission pipeline system issued a notice requiring an "immediate pressure reduction" on Mountaineer XPress Line 100 between the Mt. Olive Compressor Station in Jackson County and the Saunders Creek Regulator Station in Cabell County, West Virginia, warning that an "expected mechanical issue" would reduce scheduled volumes. Columbia Gas Transmission moves Appalachian NatGas to markets across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southeast, with connections carrying supplies deep south to export terminals on the Gulf of America. The affected Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline in West Virginia feeds two main outlets:
- Regional markets: Columbia's TCO trading pool, serving Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic customers.
- Southern markets: The Leach interconnection in Kentucky, where gas enters Columbia Gulf Transmission for transportation toward the Southeast and Louisiana's Gulf Coast.
NatGas research firm Criterion Research provided clients earlier today with an update on the outage: TCO declared force majeure this morning following an unexpected mechanical issue on its Mountaineer XPress (MXP) system between the Mt. Olive Compressor Station and Saunders Creek Regulator Station in West Virginia, with the pipeline set to cut the MXPSEG MA42 constraint to zero beginning with the Sept. 25 Timely Cycle.TCO estimates 1.8 MMDth/d of firm service will be affected, roughly matching the 1.88 MMDth/d currently scheduled through MXPSEG.MXP is a 2.7 Bcf/d Appalachian takeaway system moving Marcellus/Utica supply south through West Virginia into TCO's broader system. Upstream MXP receipts have not yet materially responded, with Sherwood flowing ~714 MDth/d, Corral ~267 MDth/d and Viking ~5 MDth/d today, but the full restriction should begin showing up in tomorrow's nominations and could force significant rerouting or production cuts if the roughly 1.8 Bcf/d cannot find alternate paths. TCO has not provided a restoration timeline and expects to issue another update Friday morning.
Ruffalo Supports 108-Mile Walk Against Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News - A coalition of environmental groups kicked off a 108-mile “Women’s Water Walk” on Saturday, strolling the route of the proposed Constitution Pipeline from Oquaga Creek State Park near Bainbridge to Schoharie over 16 days — with Hollywood’s Mark Ruffalo, Karenna Gore, and folk singer Dar Williams lending their names to the effort. It is a lovely walk through some of the prettiest country in New York (we grew up here, we should know!). The so-called water walk is also, as energy policy, roughly as consequential as a bake sale.
New York Bans Gas in Your House, Pays for Gas Pipeline to Micron --Marcellus Drilling News -- New York’s so-called leaders banned natural gas hookups in new homes (see NY State has Fallen – Gas Stoves & Peaker Plants Banned in Budget). Gov. Kathy Hochul also froze new data centers across the state (see NY Gov. Hochul Goes BANANA, Bans Data Centers for at Least 1 Year). So it’s more than a little rich that a county agency in Onondaga County just agreed to pay nearly $13 million to run a brand-new natural gas pipeline to Micron’s giant chip plant in Clay, just north of Syracuse. And what do those chips power? Data centers. Just not in New York, apparently. Gas for Micron, but not for you. Data centers for other states, but not for this one. The hypocrisy is thick enough to spread on toast.
FERC OKs Iroquois ExC Construction at 3 of 4 Compressor Sites -- Marcellus Drilling News - Shovels, meet dirt. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) yesterday gave Iroquois Gas Transmission System the green light to begin construction on its Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project — well, most of it. FERC signed off on new compression and gas cooling equipment at Iroquois’ Athens and Dover compressor stations in New York and its Milford station in Connecticut. The fourth site, in Brookfield, Connecticut, is still stuck in state air permit purgatory. But three out of four ain’t bad. It means real work can finally start on pushing more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England, two of the most gas-starved (and highest-priced) energy markets in the country.
Appalachian Natural Gas Prices Hit 2-Year Lows as Cove Point Outage Begins -Cove Point LNG went offline Saturday for annual maintenance, pulling roughly 0.85 Bcf/d of feedgas demand out of Appalachia as six regional natural gas hubs traded at their lowest prices since November 2024. NGI chart comparing Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt daily natural gas prices with Cove Point LNG feedgas nominations from March through September 2026. At a Glance:
Tetco M-2 spot falls below $1.50
TGP OFO, mild weekend also weigh
Producers trim output over the weekend
M-U Spot Gas Hits 2-Year Low as Cove Point Goes Dark - Marcellus Drilling News --Appalachian spot natural gas prices just fell off a cliff. Texas Eastern M-2 — the benchmark hub for Marcellus/Utica gas — dropped 41.5 cents to average $1.245/MMBtu for weekend and Monday deliveries, with some trades printing as low as $1.020, according to NGI (Natural Gas Intelligence). Eastern Gas North shed 44.5 cents to $1.195. Six regional hubs traded at their lowest prices since November 2024. Two things did the damage at the same time: Cove Point LNG shut down for annual maintenance Saturday, and a sharp cool-down swept the eastern U.S., taking a big bite out of air-conditioning demand.
Why Record Heat Failed to Lift U.S. Natural Gas Prices -Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6% below the same period last year, even with the Lower 48 posting its hottest July on record. Average temperatures across the Lower 48 reached 77°F in July, according to NOAA, pushing electricity demand higher as air conditioners ran harder. Solar and wind took a large share of that extra power demand. Solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours from June through August compared with the same period in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. Wind generation added another 9.3 BkWh. Natural gas-fired generation increased by 7.5 BkWh. The increase from wind and solar was nearly four times the increase from natural gas-fired generation during the summer. Gas supply was also running ahead of last year. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 2.7 billion cubic feet per day more from June through August, a 2% increase, with the Permian among the biggest sources of growth. EIA expects dry gas production to average a record 111.2 Bcf/d for 2026. Storage entered the April injection season with 1.906 trillion cubic feet of working gas, 4% above the previous five-year average. Monthly injections beat their respective five-year averages in every month through August except May. Maintenance at U.S. LNG terminals moderated demand growth from the export sector during the summer, leaving more gas available for power generation and storage. EIA expects Lower 48 working gas inventories to reach 3.985 trillion cubic feet by the end of October, about 5% above the five-year average. The hottest July on record increased gas-fired power generation without tightening the market enough to lift Henry Hub above last summer’s average. Record production, strong storage injections and nearly 29 BkWh of additional wind and solar generation kept the gas market well supplied through the peak cooling months.
Big Green Files Opening Brief in 2nd Legal Attack on Transco SESE - Marcellus Drilling News -- Big Green’s second legal attack against Transco’s Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE) just fired its opening shot. On September 18, Sierra Club, Appalachian Voices, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, and 7 Directions of Service filed their 142-page opening brief in the D.C. Circuit (Case No. 26-1100), arguing FERC’s approval of the pipeline was “arbitrary and capricious” because the agency allegedly ignored evidence that SESE and a second, co-located pipeline would combine to inflict “severe and potentially permanent” damage on streams across Virginia and North Carolina. Construction on SESE has continued the entire time — including through a failed bid by the same groups to freeze it back in June.
WhiteHawk Expands Appalachia, Haynesville Gas Portfolio - — WhiteHawk Minerals closed nearly $112 million in acquisitions and increased its borrowing capacity to $175 million as it pursues additional natural gas mineral and royalty holdings in the Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville shale plays.
Natural Gas Power Demand Keeps Climbing Despite Milder Winters -Natural gas-fired generation is adding another layer of winter demand, with the upcoming season’s power burn forecast at 33.8 Bcf/d, up 5.5 Bcf/d from five winters ago even as milder weather tempers heating needs, according to the American Gas Association (AGA).
US winter natural gas power burn rises to a forecast 33.8 Bcf/d in 2026-27 as heating degree days remain relatively mild. At a Glance:
Winter Henry Hub prices seen lower year/year
Peak-day flexible supply reaches about 41%
Henry Hub winter strip sits at $3.309
Florida Natural Gas Constraints Spur $2.4B Pipeline Expansion Push - Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) has filed a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Section 7(c) application for its $1.22 billion Phase 9 Expansion Project, aimed at relieving growing pipeline bottlenecks in the Sunshine State. NGI FGT Citygate daily natural gas price chart showing Florida spot gas prices rising from around $3.00/MMBtu in April to above $8.00/MMBtu at peaks in September 2026. At a Glance:
Two projects target regional supply constraints
FGT adds 526,750 MMBtu/d of capacity
Florida relies heavily on gas generation
Magnolia LNG Lands Extension Due to Biden-Era Project Delays - Federal regulators have given the Magnolia LNG export project in Louisiana another five years to start and finish construction and bring the facility into service, granting an extension request filed earlier this year by an affiliate of Glenfarne Group. At a Glance:
- FERC grants in-service extension
- New deadline set for April 2031
- Little progress reported on project
EQT Expands LNG Reach With 10-Year Supply Deal in Lithuania - Lithuanian state-owned energy company Ignitis has agreed to buy LNG from EQT for 10 years beginning in 2027. At a Glance:
Deliveries begin in 2027, run through 2036
Ignitis to purchase 1 cargo annually
Pricing linked to Henry Hub, TTF
Enbridge launches open season for proposed Texas natgas pipe (Reuters) - Canadian energy company Enbridge said on Tuesday it launched a non-binding open season for its proposed West Texas Express natural gas pipeline to transport gas west from the Waha area of the Permian Shale to markets in and around El Paso, Texas. The Permian is the biggest oil-producing shale basin in the United States. Gas production associated with oil production in the Permian, which is located in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, also makes the basin the fastest growing and second biggest gas-producing shale basin behind the giant Marcellus and Utica shale regions in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. Most producers in the Permian are seeking oil, but as more oil and gas are produced, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has said that pressure within the reservoir declines and gas is easier to produce at lower pressures, boosting the gas-to-oil ratio. The gas-to-oil ratio has steadily increased over the past five years to an average of nearly 4,200 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil (cf/b), a 16% increase from around 3,600 cf/b in 2021, according to EIA data. More gas means more pipelines and other energy infrastructure are needed to process and transport that fuel. Enbridge, which transports about 20% of the gas consumed in the U.S., said its proposed West Texas Express project responds to growing demand for reliable gas supplies from proposed power generation, utilities, generators and industrial customers such as data centers across West Texas and markets in Mexico, New Mexico and Arizona. West Texas Express is currently expected to include more than 150 miles of new pipeline with an initial transportation capacity of up to 2 billion cubic feet per day. One billion cubic feet of gas can supply around five million U.S. homes for a day. Enbridge said it is targeting an in-service date in the fourth quarter of 2029 subject to securing sufficient commercial support and obtaining required approvals. The non-binding open season began September 10 and will close on September 25.
Chuck Grassley urges Donald Trump to embargo diesel exports to aid farmers - Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) on Saturday pressed President Trump for an embargo on diesel exports amid high prices for the fuel.“why doesn’t Pres Trump put an embargo on diesel exports like presidents in the 70s put embargoes on ag[riculture] products bc [because] food prices were inflated,” Grassley wrote on social media Saturday night.“High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME,” the Iowa senator added.According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of diesel in the U.S. on Sunday evening was about $6.51, while the price for the same time last year was about $3.70. In Grassley’s state, the average price of a gallon of diesel was about $6.29, per AAA.Increasing diesel prices are a problem for Republicans, with soaring energy costs worsening the economic mood in the U.S. shortly before November’s midterms.Within the last week, the national average for diesel rose by more than 40 cents. Trump has attempted to pin the blame on energy facilities hit amid the Russia-Ukraine war. But steep prices are also due to the war with Iran, which is about to hit the seven-month mark. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, has faced closures, jacking up the cost of oil.“If our govt can embargo chips to China it can embargo diesel to help American farmers & truckers,” Grassley wrote on social media Sunday afternoon. “We need our family farmers who feed&fuel the world 2b [to be] on the strongest footing possible no matter what’s happening across the globe.”
Big Ag and Big Oil go head-to-head over diesel export ban - President Donald Trump is facing growing calls from his Republican allies in farm states to restrict exports of diesel as prices soar — a move staunchly opposed by the U.S. oil and gas producers who have traditionally backed him. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Trump called her Monday to discuss diesel prices, which hit a record high of $6.51 per gallon on Monday and which she called “a real concern.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and other White House officials were working on the issue through the weekend, Rollins said, adding that she expects an announcement “very soon on some potential actions.” “I’ve certainly worked to make sure that the cause and concern of our farmers and ranchers, especially in that area right now, with the cost of diesel and fuel overall, they understand that’s a priority,” Rollins told POLITICO at a press briefing. The growing push for an export ban comes as farmers are facing diesel prices that have been steadily rising as a result of the ongoing wars in the Middle East and Europe — driving up the price of harvesting crops and threatening to spill over into the cost of food and other goods across the U.S. economy. Republicans in farm states and beyond are desperate for the Trump administration to do something to get a handle on prices ahead of the midterm elections, even if it means crossing their traditional allies in the oil and gas sector. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) posted over the weekend that high diesel prices are “KILLING FARMERS INCOME” and urged Trump to “put an embargo on diesel exports like presidents in the 70s put embargoes on ag products bc food prices were inflated.” Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who is running for the Senate, called Monday morning for using “every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices,” including suspending diesel exports and the federal gas tax.. Joining the calls Monday was Louisiana GOP Gov. Jeff Landry, whose state is home to a massive refining and petroleum export industry. “LET’S LOWER SOME FUEL COSTS NOW AND HELP THE ENTIRE U.S. ECONOMY with the Administration and Congress issuing a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports and making the small refinery exception permanent,” Landry posted on X. The oil industry has enjoyed White House support, but the agriculture lobby tends to take precedence over most other industries, said Kevin Book, director at consulting firm ClearView Energy. “From what I’ve seen, when ag and oil go head-to-head, America usually loves its farmers first and best,” Book said. A White House official said Monday that the administration is “not considering an export ban or export restrictions at this time.” Wright said last week that restricting diesel exports would lead to “more expensive gasoline right away” because refineries would be forced to turn down production of all types of fuel. “If you start putting barriers on flows, pretty quickly you will reduce the production,” Wright said at an event hosted by the Daily Caller. “You’ll have less supply. We need more supply, not less supply.” American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers echoed those comments on X on Sunday, arguing that an export ban would “make the problem worse, not better — for consumers, farmers and the broader U.S. economy.” “Without access to global buyers, Gulf Coast storage could fill quickly, forcing refineries to cut runs,” Sommers wrote. “And refineries don’t just make diesel — lower refinery runs could mean less gasoline and jet fuel, too.” But the oil industry, which has long counted on the Trump White House as a policy ally, is starting to fret that the administration might concede suspending diesel exports as a way to placate Republican lawmakers facing tough reelection prospects this November. “I am still confident that the cooler heads in the administration will prevail and we won’t see diesel export bans,” said one oil industry executive in dialogue with the White House who was granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions. “But my confidence is on less secure ground than just a few weeks ago. There is a panic in the air to address prices at the pump.”
US Diesel Craters, EU Prices Skyrocket As Politico Reports White House Preparing Plan For 90-Day Export Ban - Diesel is certainly top of mind in the White House as a global refining crisis has sent prices at the pump for the industrial fuel to record-high levels, so high that Apollo's chief economist, Torsten Slok, warned earlier that it could spark a core inflation shock.Policy maneuvering by the White House is limited, and what has been floated by Trump and some top Republicans is a diesel export ban, while top desks on Wall Street have warned that it's a terrible idea and could exacerbate prices around the world.Earlier, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was at odds with Trump's call for a diesel export ban; Wright said, "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work."Around lunchtime in New York, a new Politico report said the White House was preparing a potential 90-day ban on diesel exports ahead of November's midterm elections. The report stated that the proposal remains under discussion, with its legal framework unresolved. Politico cited five people familiar with the talks."What has overpowered cooler heads [in the White House] is the absolutely, sky-is-falling, we-have-to-do-something concern about prices at the pump" faction, said this person, who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations with White House officials. "That camp has been swept aside by the political camp, which says, 'dammit, something has to happen.'" A White House official commented on the report, calling it "another fake news story from Politico." Last week, Barclays refining and midstream analyst Theresa Chen warned clients that a proposed U.S. diesel export ban would be "detrimental to the US refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief." Chen outlined one major problem: keeping diesel inside the country does not guarantee it can reach gas pumps.
Wright throws cold water on diesel export ban - Energy Secretary Chris Wright threw cold water at the idea of a full ban on diesel exports Wednesday. “The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work,” Wright was quoted as saying by the news outlet Reuters. “If you can’t export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce US refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet fuel prices,” he said. The Wall Street Journal reported that at its event, Wright said that the administration would not halt all diesel exports and would instead take a voluntary approach to bringing prices down. Shortly after those remarks, Politico reported that the White House was gearing up for a 90-day ban on diesel exports. The White House denied the report and referred The Hill to Wright’s remarks in the Journal. The comments come one day after President Trump expressed support for a diesel exports ban.“I’ve said, ‘Let’s not send out the diesel.’ We make a lot of diesel,” Trump said. “I’ve called for it within my people. I’ve been talking about it.”
‘Dammit, something has to happen’: White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban - The Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days, despite splits inside the administration and with the oil industry, in a bid to bring down energy prices weighing on Republicans leading into the midterms, five people familiar with the discussions said Wednesday. A ban, the legal process of which is still being worked out, has been opposed by U.S. fuel producers who have warned that any short-term benefit would be outweighed by higher fuel prices in the future. Any halt to shipments would be the first restriction on U.S. energy exports since the Obama administration lifted a decades-old ban on oil exports in 2015. But the war that the Trump administration launched against Iran in February, as well as Ukraine’s attacks against Russian refineries, have boosted diesel prices to record highs and caused farm-state Republicans to demand the ban. The average price for a gallon of diesel was $6.52 Wednesday, up 91 cents from a month ago and $2.83 from last year, according to AAA. Some GOP lawmakers, refining industry executives and even some administration officials are still trying to convince President Donald Trump that a ban would be a bad idea, one that could backfire by eventually raising prices for gasoline, jet fuel and other fuels, said people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to describe internal White House communications. But as high energy prices continue to bedevil Republican candidates going into tough midterm elections in less than seven weeks, Trump is inclined to announce a ban by the end of the week and consider any blowback “a December problem,” said one oil industry executive who has discussed the ban with senior White House officials. “What has overpowered cooler heads [in the White House] is the absolutely, sky-is-falling, we-have-to-do-something concern about prices at the pump” faction, said this person, who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations with White House officials. “That camp has been swept aside by the political camp, which says, ‘dammit, something has to happen.’” White House and Energy Department spokespeople did not immediately address specific questions. “This is another fake news story from Politico,” a White House official said. A 90-day ban could cause diesel prices to drop in some U.S. regions in the short term as tankers of the fuel originally intended to go to Europe or Asia are instead pumped back into the U.S. fuel system, raising domestic supply. But refiners would eventually slow down production in answer to the loss of a major export market, causing prices to rise. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have protested the idea of a total ban, people familiar with the internal discussions said. “Bessent is a good soldier,” a person with knowledge of the discussions said. “He will voice opinions and then march forward.” Spokespeople for the departments of Treasury and Interior did not immediately respond to questions. Wright made a round of calls to energy CEOs on Tuesday night telling them a 90-day ban was likely to happen in the coming days, according to a Trump energy adviser, speaking on background to avoid repercussions. A number of CEOs immediately began calling the White House to push back on the ban, the adviser said, cautioning that “there’s a lot of swirl so it might change.” “It’s a terrible idea,” the adviser said. Another industry official said it could come down to the “last person in the room” with Trump when he makes the decision. An external adviser to the administration said they had received “a bunch of frantic outreach” in recent days searching for alternatives to a ban. They worried the administration would repeatedly extend a ban and establish precedent for government intervention in energy markets — a playbook Democrats could use as well. “It’s clear that there is a lot of internal opposition to it,” the person said.
White House eyes diesel fuel moves that fall short of export ban -Trump administration officials are weighing alternatives to imposing a ban on diesel exports to bring prices for the fuel down from record highs — including passing the issue down to the state level, three people familiar with the negotiations said Friday. Several options are on the table to alleviate the financial burden the high prices have inflicted on the farming and transportation sectors without a full halt to exports of the fuel, which economists and oil industry executives have warned would ultimately disrupt fuel production and push prices higher. President Donald Trump, who has been hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington for much of the latter half of the week, is still expected to announce some sort of policy as soon as Friday or early next week, though no final decision has been made, these people said. “The plan all week was to throw whatever spaghetti they had at the wall by today,” said one of the people familiar with the discussion who was granted anonymity to describe private discussions with the administration. A White House official speaking on background said no decision had been made yet. “The President wants to see gas prices at the pump fall and is evaluating all the options on the table,” the official said. “Ultimately, President Trump will make the decision that is best for the American people.” Among the evolving set of options under consideration by Trump officials are measures to boost distribution of “dyed diesel,” a red-colored fuel used in agriculture, construction and for other off-road vehicles that is exempt from state and federal taxes, three people with direct knowledge of the plan said. The White House would also encourage more states to eliminate their state-level excise taxes on diesel ahead of the midterms, according to these people. The internal Trump administration talks are ongoing and there’s been no final decision, but officials are working to announce a diesel plan soon, the people said, and it would likely be released by early next week. GOP governors in Nebraska and other states have already announced a series of emergency plans to waive current taxes for off-road diesel while implementing other exemptions to try to alleviate pressure on farmers and consumers. Earlier on Friday, GOP Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey directed state law enforcement officials to halt enforcement of the dyed-diesel rules for 120 days. Suspending any federal-level taxes on fuel would require Congress’ action — which is very unlikely to take place before the midterms given that GOP leaders have canceled remaining votes in the House. Key GOP senators have previously dismissed calls for a federal tax holiday on gasoline, and an intense internal fight among Republicans over whether to suspend the federal gas tax died in the House before the chamber left earlier this month. In agriculture-dependent GOP-led states, Republicans are trying to fend off a wave of Democratic gains in tight races amid anger over rising fuel costs and the compounding economic blows on farmers. In Nebraska, where Gov. Jim Pillen announced emergency actions on Thursday, Republicans are working to salvage a marquee House race and defend a challenge to GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts by independent Dan Osborn. But key GOP candidates are also getting hammered on the diesel crisis in blue and purple states, where the Trump administration will have to rely on Democratic governors to suspend state taxes on diesel. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is running for Senate in Michigan, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), and other Republicans in incredibly tight races are in states with Democratic governors. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who has warned that an export ban would ultimately lead to higher fuel prices, has said he’s pushing for voluntary moves on diesel from refiners to provide some relief as well, though companies say that could raise antitrust concerns or spark shareholder lawsuits.
'Let's push prices down': Wright asks oil industry to curb exports -— Energy Secretary Chris Wright is calling on the oil industry to voluntarily reduce diesel fuel exports in a bid to bring down prices domestically ahead of midterm elections.The former oil industry executive’s pitch in Pennsylvania comes a day after POLITICO reported the White House was preparing plans to impose a 90-day halt on exports of the fuel, which triggered an outcry in the U.S. oil industry and showed the pressure President Donald Trump’s administration is under from voters to address affordability issues.Wright said on Wednesday he’s been talking to energy executives about that idea — and potentially other options — to reverse the spike in prices that have lifted the fuel to record highs because of the shortages caused by the administration’s war against Iran and Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s refineries.“Reduce a little bit your exports overseas,” Wright, speaking to reporters at an event here, said he told refining company executives. “Put some more diesel into the United States. Let’s grow our diesel inventories. Let’s push prices down.”But energy executives have expressed their concerns that coordinating such voluntary reductions among companies could violate federal antitrust laws.“It’s against the law,” said a person working with the energy executives who are talking to White House officials and granted anonymity to preserve relationships. “That creates a problem for them.”The administration is still exploring another option, Wright told reporters, but he declined to offer any details about what that would entail.“There’s another one, too, but I can’t talk about it yet,” Wright told reporters. “Because we’re still working [on] whether we can do it or not.”Wright’s message comes after the administration pitched oil executives on its plans to impose a possible 90-day ban on exports to drive down domestic prices. That caused a widespread outcry from the industry against the idea, warning such a move would only bring a short-term decline in prices that would be followed by a longer-term disruption in refinery output as companies adjusted to the loss of a major market.News that the administration was working on a plan for a ban caused “lots of pushback from industry, opened the door for some watered-down version of a ban,” said one industry executive familiar with the conversations. “But Wright’s ‘voluntary’ export ban/limitation has no details.”
Diesel export fight strains GOP ties with Big Oil - The marriage between Hill Republicans and the fossil fuel industry is showing signs of fracture, as a potential diesel export ban puts strain on a long-standing alliance. Farm-state Republicans and MAGA populists are decrying the greed of “Big Oil” and lining up behind diesel export bans amid skyrocketing prices that the fossil fuel industry argues would make a “difficult situation worse.” Conservatives are hesitant to put the blame on the war in Iran — and by extension, President Donald Trump — leaving the industry to shoulder the blame. That growing fissure between GOP lawmakers and the fossil fuel industry could disrupt a relationship that has delivered policy wins for drillers and big political donations for Republicans for decades. Some analysts warn it could open the door for future Republican regulation of fossil fuels. “It’s a contagion,” said Mike McKenna, an energy lobbyist who worked in the first Trump White House. “There are even stupider ideas that are gonna follow this.” Republicans have consistently banded together to deliver for the oil and gas industry. All but a handful of Republicans voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included several provisions benefiting fossil fuel development, including expanded federal oil and gas leasing and lower royalty rates for offshore drilling. The industry, meanwhile, has directed the vast majority of its campaign contributions to Republicans. Since the 1990 election cycle, more than two-thirds of the oil and gas sector’s contributions to candidates and party committees benefited Republicans, according to OpenSecrets. Still, a growing contingent of Republicans in recent weeks have been proposing ways to cut gas and diesel prices even as the industry warns them against such ideas. Senate Republicans said they aren’t particularly concerned about disrupting oil markets or cutting into oil company profits, as Trump weighs whether to impose a 90-day diesel export ban by the end of the week. “They’ll be fine,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who supports the diesel export ban, said of oil companies. “I predict they’ll still make a bunch of money.” Others said oil companies should be lowering prices on their own. “[Fossil fuel companies] ought to be trying to do everything they can [to lower prices],” said Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.). “The survivability of our country and the goodness of how we are as people — they hold a big part of that key.” Justice said he didn’t know for sure whether they were actively price gouging. Oil-country Republicans pushed back on their colleagues’ claims these companies have much say over prices that are set by markets. Sen. James Lankford of oil-rich Oklahoma said that global factors, like the war in Iran, are to blame. “These are dynamics that are global, so every single country in the world is facing the same thing,” Lankford said. “So this is not just about American oil companies. Their price is determined for them based on the market.” Tom Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, an advocacy group for fossil fuels, said he’s worried about what the support of a diesel export ban could mean for future energy politics. “Democrats have long supported export bans on crude oil,” Pyle said. “What are Republicans going to say when Democrats ask to ban natural gas exports after this?” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), for his part, has been a critic of the oil industry since the Iran war started. A member of the House Freedom Caucus, he’s led the most virulent criticism of the oil industry — and used phrases most commonly uttered by Democrats. “When individuals do it, it’s gouging,” Burchett said in a recent X post. “When BIG OIL does it, it’s business as usual.” Burchett is leading two bills that would temporarily ban diesel exports until January or institute an export control if the price of the fuel goes above $5 a gallon. Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, said that current frustrations with oil prices are a short-term reaction that will end when the conflict with Iran wraps up. But McKenna, the former GOP White House official, isn’t particularly hopeful. “We’ve become literally as dumb as the other side,” McKenna said.
Trump’s diesel threat risks burning U.S. credibility - President Donald Trump’s threat to curtail diesel shipments abroad comes with a risk: the perception that he’s reneging on his promise to shower the world with U.S. fuels. That move would inflame tensions between the U.S. and Europe while jeopardizing American credibility as a trading partner, energy experts and administration allies said. And it could compel nations to seek other suppliers, limiting Trump’s ability to wield energy as a negotiating tool in the future, they added. “This is going to damage our reputation,” said an external adviser to the Trump administration, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “The whole premise of energy dominance was that the United States would be able to supply our allies around the world. Curtailing that is going to raise question marks.” Plans to limit U.S. diesel exports are under discussion at the White House as the fuel’s price soars because of oil supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war. The Trump administration is considering different options, from a full-scale 90-day export ban to incremental limits on outbound diesel. The idea is fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industry over worries that it could make them less competitive in overseas markets. The effort to corral fuel prices comes less than six weeks ahead of midterm elections that threaten strip control of Congress from Republicans — and break Trump’s unfettered influence over the Legislative branch. A White House official said Trump is evaluating all his options to lower diesel prices, which have soared from $3.74 a gallon to $6.52 over the past year. The European Union has increased U.S. diesel imports to record levels because of the Iran war, with imports rising by 1.5 million barrels a day in August, a 50% increase since the conflict began in February, said David Jorbenaze, a senior oil analyst at commodities intelligence firm ICIS. According to S&P Global Energy, U.S. diesel now accounts for 10% of the continent’s consumption. Finding replacement supply would be extremely difficult, with refineries around the world already operating at maximum capacity, Jorbenaze said. “Removing that source would pull away the leg Europe has been leaning on hardest,” he said, adding that a ban would result in increased global competition for cargoes from a “shrinking pool” of suppliers, a drop in output of other crude products, and higher prices across the board.
Nebraska, 2 Other States Allow Farm Diesel Use in Road Vehicles Amid Fuel Concerns(DTN) -- Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen on Thursday issued two executive orders designed to help farmers, ranchers and agricultural transporters cope with soaring diesel costs and fuel-supply concerns during the peak harvest season. The orders temporarily suspend state penalties for using dyed farm diesel in highway-registered vehicles while also providing tax and transportation relief for agricultural producers. Under the first order, highway-registered vehicles may hold, sell and use untaxed dyed diesel without incurring state fines or penalties. The order also allows refunds of diesel taxes paid while transporting Nebraska-produced seasonal commodities and livestock on state roads through the Nebraska Department of Revenue's Form 84AG process. This order takes effect immediately and will remain active for 90 days. The second executive order provides weight limit relief for seasonal crop transport. Vehicles transporting seasonally produced products and livestock can now operate up to 25% over legal gross and axle group weight limits without purchasing additional permits or paying associated fees. Pillen also sent a letter to President Donald Trump requesting federal intervention through a temporary 90-day pause on U.S. diesel exports to foreign countries. Pillen said that halting exports would allow domestic diesel reserves to rebuild, lowering costs for consumers and helping producers navigate harvest season without severe financial strain. "Our farmers and ranchers are the backbone of our state," Pillen said. "It's critical that I do everything in my power to make sure they are supported, especially during this season where they are working day in and day out to get the crops out of the ground." OTHER STATES TAKE ACTION ON DIESEL Other states are also halting enforcement of dyed diesel on highway-registered vehicles. On the same day as Nebraska's announcement, Alabama made a similar announcement. Gov. Kay Ivey said on Thursday that she directed the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency (ALEA) to halt enforcement on dyed diesel fuel for the next 120 days to relieve the state's agricultural and timber communities. ALEA's enforcement changes are effective immediately. "As we are in the beginning of peak harvest season in Alabama, I am committed to doing what we can to support our state's farmers and their families," Ivey said. "When we can responsibly provide relief, I am all for it, and this is a measured, doable and commonsense action to help Alabama's agricultural and timber communities." On Sept. 23, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry also issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency, allowing Louisiana farmers and timber harvesters to use dyed diesel in on-road vehicles. The order will suspend the penalty through Oct. 22 for vehicles registered as Class 2 (Forest Products) or Class 5 (Farm Use) during peak harvesting operations, according to a press release. "We're not going to sit on the sidelines while Louisiana farmers are paying record-high prices to harvest the crops that feed our families and support our economy," Landry stated. "We have an opportunity to provide immediate relief, and that's exactly what we're doing." Rising fuel prices likely will increase costs for agricultural producers this harvest and beyond if diesel markets remain elevated. Some farmers sought to protect themselves from higher prices by buying fuel earlier in the year. One of those was Bradley Choquette, who farms near Upland, Nebraska. His central Nebraska operation includes corn, soybeans and hay, along with a cow-calf herd that he retains through finishing. Concerned about rising fuel prices amid instability in the Middle East, Choquette purchased farm diesel through his local cooperative in June 2026. He paid $3.50 per gallon and bought enough fuel to carry his operation through this fall's harvest and into next spring's planting season. Now, he said, dyed diesel in his area is selling for about $5 per gallon. "I did have some knowledge of lower fuel inventories and was concerned getting supply, so I bought fuel," Choquette told DTN. Prepaying for that much fuel was unusual for his operation. Choquette said he had never locked in such a large diesel purchase so far in advance, but concerns about both price and availability prompted him to act. He expects diesel prices to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Choquette pointed to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, damage to oil-producing infrastructure and refinery closures in the U.S. and elsewhere as factors likely to keep supplies tight. "I saw that for every 2% loss in production for diesel, this results in a 20% price increase on the world markets," Choquette said. "This is not good news for diesel prices."
How We Got Here: A Market Recap of the 2026 Distillate Supply Crunch - If you have been following the headlines, you know the broad strokes: the Iran conflict sent oil markets into a tailspin and distillate supply has been under pressure ever since. But if you have only been catching the highlights, you may have missed how early the warning signs appeared, how quickly conditions escalated, and how each new development stacked on top of the last.We’ve been tracking distillate inventory and oil and gas price volatility in real time through our weekly Refined Products Review series. Here is the story of how we got here, told through the market moments that mattered most.
- Early 2026: The Market Was Actually Worried About Too Much Oil - It is easy to forget now, but heading into early 2026, the conversation in energy markets was about oversupply, not tightness. Analysts were watching demand signals and wondering whether the market could absorb all the crude coming online. The mood was cautious but not alarmed. In our February 25 Refined Products Review, our team was talking about how demand and oversupply were the dominant concerns, and how the market felt like it had enough cushion to handle a rise in demand if it came. That cushion was about to disappear.
- Late February into March: The Strait Closes and Everything Changes. On February 28, the United States and Israel struck Iran. Within days, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical chokepoints in global oil supply. In the first video after the conflict began, our team was honest about the uncertainty. No one knew how long the conflict would last or how significant the strait closure would be for global supply. We were not in a crunch yet, but the concerns started to emerge: how long would the strait stay closed, and what would that mean for product availability? It was also worth understanding what was already happening in the market before the conflict. February had been a backwardated month, meaning near-term prices were higher than future prices. That condition discourages anyone from holding inventory, because product sitting in a tank loses value over time relative to where the market is heading. With all this uncertainty in a backwardated market, we had one piece of advice: go “back to back,” meaning, buy what you sell and sell what you buy. Continued uncertainty about when the Strait would open added a lot of volatility to the market. In 2025, roughly 25% of the world’s maritime trade in crude oil and petroleum products, as well as roughly 19% of liquefied natural gas, passed through the Strait. As a result of the prolonged closure of the strait, diesel and heating oil prices spiked and swung wildly. As we mentioned in our review that week, days were opening 80¢ up, then climbed and dropped throughout the day. By the last week of March, our team was tracking the reality that large amounts of crude simply had not made it to market. Prices were climbing as a result. The conversation had shifted from price volatility as a short-term shock to something more structural.
- April into May: Inventory Hits Multi-Year Lows. After two months of the strait being effectively closed, the downstream effects started showing up in storage numbers. U.S. inventory levels fell to multi-year lows. Export numbers were strong, meaning domestic supply was moving out even as imports were being constrained. The long-term outlook was starting to look shaky. The UAE’s state-owned oil company had estimated that full flows through the strait would not resume until 2027, even if a deal was reached quickly. By late May, the seasonal picture for heating oil was starting to come into focus in a way that made a lot of people uncomfortable. Normally you would expect inventories to rebuild through the summer before drawing down in winter. But with exports running strong and imports constrained, that typical seasonal rebuild was not happening at the pace the market needed. The concern about winter supply was no longer a distant one.
- June into July: A New Problem Enters the Picture. Just as the market was trying to digest what the Strait of Hormuz closure meant for crude supply, a separate and distinct problem emerged for distillates. Ukraine’s drone campaign intensified against Russian oil refineries in June. This was a different kind of supply disruption. Crude and distillates, like heating oil and diesel, are related but their markets do not always move together. Crude is the raw material. Distillates are the finished products that come out of refineries. When you knock refining capacity offline, you tighten the distillate market independently of what crude is doing. The scale of the damage was significant. Russian oil refining fell in July to its lowest level in more than two decades. Russian refineries processed an estimated 3.6 million barrels of crude per day, roughly one-third below the seasonal norm. Diesel crack spreads, the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of finished distillate products, widened sharply. By mid-summer our team was making a distinction that fuel resellers should understand: the crude oil story and the distillate story had become two separate stories. The July 29 Refined Products Review put it plainly: The crude situation was problematic, no doubt, but the distillate situation was an immediate concern. Getting those refineries running again was not going to be a quick fix. Damaged refinery infrastructure takes time, capital, and expertise to restore. There was one more wrinkle. The refineries that were still operating were running at maximum capacity, trying to make up the shortfall. Running a refinery at full throttle for an extended period creates its own risk: the likelihood of unplanned maintenance issues and mechanical shutdowns goes up. There was no slack in the system at that point. The market was telling dealers something clear: the time to secure your supply was not when the season started. It was now.
- August into September: China, the Strait, and a Market With No Room for Error. By August, three big questions were hanging over the market. Since the beginning of the U.S.-Iran conflict, China had significantly pulled back on crude imports and refining activity. The question was what China would do next, would they begin importing and exporting at the same capacity and when? At the same time, U.S.-Iran peace talks had fallen apart, with the U.S. shifting toward economic pressure as its primary tool. That raised a new question about the strait: without a diplomatic resolution, how long would crude flows remain constrained? And with global inventories at multi-year lows, would governments step in and pay a premium to rebuild reserves before heating season? By late August, those questions were still unresolved, but new pressure was building. U.S.-Canada trade talks broke down, with Canada signaling it could restrict energy exports if the dispute worsened. Canada is a key supplier of heavy crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, and any disruption adds pressure to a market with no cushion. As September arrived, the geopolitical uncertainty remained. The U.S.-Iran conflict continued with more questions about how much product would move through the strait. China shifted from restricting exports to exporting at closer to pre-conflict levels, giving some relief to the distillate market. The U.S. announced a major agreement to access Venezuelan crude, but analysts broadly viewed it as a long-term play. And Russian refining capability was still hamstrung with potential for more disruption. For heating oil dealers, the implications were becoming clear: many customers likely have empty tanks, customers will likely face high fill-up costs, and it’s possible homeowners will begin exploring alternatives to oil. The market volatility was not cooling.
- Where Things Stand Today. Those oversupply concerns from early in the year feel like a distant memory. The concern today is whether there will be enough supply to meet demand this season. Unfortunately, the issues facing the oil and gas markets are not short-term problems. Most of them will not resolve this heating season, and some of them will take years to fully work through. On top of that, any blow to global refinery capability or spikes in demand will add a lot of volatility to the market. A weather event, more geopolitical unrest, operational interruptions at a refinery—any one of these factors could create a pinch in an already constrained market. The dealers who will be best positioned this winter are the ones who recognized these signals early and built a supply plan accordingly.
BP Eyes Bigger U.S. Shale Footprint After Devon Deal Talks - BP has started looking seriously at U.S. shale assets again, including Devon Energy’s Eagle Ford business, as CEO Meg O’Neill pushes the company back toward oil and gas growth. BP entered the data room for Devon’s South Texas assets after it opened in late August, according to Reuters sources. One source said BP ultimately walked away from a deal. Devon’s Eagle Ford position covers about 90,000 net acres and produced roughly 77,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter. TPH Research valued the assets at about $4.5 billion this week, although Reuters sources put the likely range closer to $3.5 billion to $4 billion. BP already knows the neighborhood. Its BPX Energy unit produced about 545,000 boepd in the second quarter, including approximately 205,000 boepd from the Eagle Ford. BP is targeting more than 650,000 boepd from BPX by 2030. Part of Devon’s Eagle Ford acreage was also held in a joint venture with BP until that partnership was dissolved last year. The interest is notable because BP has spent much of the last 18 months selling assets, reducing debt and working toward a $20 billion divestment target. It had largely stayed out of the recent shale acquisition wave. That appears to be changing under O’Neill. BP has entered data rooms for a small number of shale assets up for sale, Reuters reported, although access to the books does not mean a bid will follow. BP earned $5.7 billion in underlying replacement cost profit in the second quarter, more than double its year-earlier result, after higher oil prices and stronger refining margins padded earnings. Higher crude prices are also making U.S. assets more expensive. Oil climbed back above $100 last week as Middle East supply risks intensified, improving the economics for sellers just as buyers are trying not to overpay. Devon is marketing both its Eagle Ford position and Powder River Basin acreage following its $58 billion merger with Coterra.
Millions of abandoned oil and gas wells are leaking methane. The cleanup bill? Falling to taxpayers. - Centuries of humanity’s unceasing plundering of Earth’s natural—and finite—oil and gas resources have wreaked havoc on the planet, and while countries are transitioning (too slowly) to renewable forms of energy, the poor decisions of the past still linger. Some of the most damaging remnants are zombie wells—abandoned and orphaned oil and gas wells, or AOOGs—littered across the United States. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated in 2023 that about 3.7 million of them dot the the country, out of the four to five million oil and gas wells drilled since the modern industry began in 1859, and the agency says roughly 58 percent of the abandoned wells in its records have never been plugged. A 2023 study in Environmental Research Letters, led by McGill University engineer Mary Kang, found that more than 4.6 million Americans—about 13 percent of the population—live within roughly half a mile of one of the more than 80,000 documented orphaned wells alone.And that’s a big problem because these oil and gas wells leak methane, a greenhouse gas that’s up to 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere, as well as hydrogen sulfide—a highly toxic gas. Together, these wells emit an estimated 2.6 million metric tons of methane every year.“These wells have the potential to contaminate water supplies, degrade ecosystems, and emit methane and other air pollutants,” the authors of the McGill study write. “Orphaned wells present risks to climate stability and to environmental and human health, which can be reduced by plugging.”In a perfect regulatory world, plugging these wells would be the responsibility of the oil companies that drilled and profited from them in the first place. But as a recent court case shows, some companies run "fraudulent schemes” to avoid remediation costs. The other problem is the whole “orphaned” thing, which indicates that some of these wells no longer have an owner responsible for clean up. Some non-profit organizations, such as the Well Done Foundation, have stepped up to try to cap these wells, but the vast scope of the mess is far beyond what any one outfit can tackle.While 27 U.S. states have AOOGs, the problem is particularly acute in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, a geological zone known as the Permian Basin. This area, roughly the size of South Dakota, is famous for its sheer size and multiple thick shale layers, and it was the epicenter of the oil boom in the early 20th century. According to ABC News, some 600,000 wells are spread across the Permian Basin and more than 8,000 are considered orphaned, with the number growing every year. The cost capping each of these wells is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of taxpayer dollars. In 2021, U.S. Congress set aside $4.7 billion for capping these wells, although ABC News estimates it’d actually take more than 50 times that sum to stop the leaking.An additional problem, especially in Texas, is that oil companies are now pumping so much wastewater underground that toxic chemicals are seeping up through AOOGs. The Texas Railroad Commission of Texas, which, despite its name, regulates the oil and gas industry in the state, says it’s seen a 53 percent increase in leaking zombie wells in the past fiscal year. The “pro” reasons for sticking with oil and gas for our energy future are vanishingly thin. Whether the justifications are economic, geopolitical, or environmental, the industry continues to be the primary contributor to climate change while also leaving the costly scars of resource extraction in its wake. Who knows how many years, decades, or even centuries, it might take for those scars to heal?
US oil and gas platforms reach their highest levels since May 2024 - US energy companies raised to 595 the number of oil and gas platforms meanwhile, drilling activity is gaining momentum in some of the country’s main producing basins. The number of rigs increased for the second consecutive week, according to the latest count published by Baker Hughes. During the week ending September 18, the total grew by four units to reach 595 rigs. This figure represents the highest level since May 2014 and is 53 more rigs than in the same period last year. Year-over-year, the count is nearly 10% higher, indicating a recovery in drilling activity in the US energy sector. By type of operation, the platforms intended for the oil drilling they increased by two units to reach 452, their highest level since August. Natural gas platforms also added two units, reaching 134, the highest figure since February 2016, meanwhile, the teams classified within other categories remained unchanged at nine. The Baker Hughes weekly count is one of the indicators used by the industry to track drilling activity in the United States. Its movements allow observers to see how operators respond to changes in commodity prices, market conditions, and their production plans. The activity also registered significant movements in some of the main producing regions of the United States. In the Permian basin in the area stretching from West Texas to East New Mexico, the number of platforms increased by one to reach 269. This is its highest level since June 2025. The Williston Formation, located primarily in North Dakota and Montana, added three platforms and reached 35 active crews, its highest number since January 2025. In North Dakota, the count also increased by three units to reach 31 platforms, the highest level recorded since May 2025. The behavior was different in the Gulf of Mexico, where the number of active teams decreased by one unit to five, its lowest level since September 2021. The recent growth in the number of platforms comes after three consecutive years of decline in activity, the count fell by 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and another 7% in 2025. In those years, the smallest crude oil prices American factors led many producers to maintain greater capital discipline, reduce debt, and prioritize shareholder returns over rapid production expansion. In 2026, however, the outlook begins to change, with expectations about West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, along with supply and demand conditions, once again influencing the drilling decisions of US operators. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA)it forecasts that the country’s oil production will increase from the record 13.7 million barrels per day recorded in 2025 to approximately 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026. In the natural gas market, the expected growth is greater, the EIA estimates that production will increase from 107.600 million cubic feet per day in 2025 to about 111.700 million cubic feet per day in 2026. Among the factors supporting this growth is the increased demand for natural gas for electricity generation, driven in part by the development of data centers with high energy requirements. Added to this is the expansion of US infrastructure to produce and export liquefied natural gas (LNG), which increases the need for gas supply within the country. Baker Hughes’ two-week increase in drill rig counts provides a further indication of the positive trend in US drilling. Whether this trend continues will depend primarily on oil and gas prices, investment decisions by operators, and the growth in energy demand.
California rules on air pollution from maritime pollution regulation under challenge - Los Angeles Times - Congress recently challenged California’s authority to regulate air pollution from cargo ships and large commercial boats, opening the door to dirtier air in portside communities. The U.S. House of Representatives last week narrowly voted to take away the ability of California to force large ships to run on electricity when they’re in port, instead of running on their giant diesel engines. A second vote also sought to end requirements for cleaner engines on some commercial boats. These regulations were designed to eliminate unhealthful pollution near harbor communities, like Long Beach and Wilmington. The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the largest fixed source of smog-forming air pollution in metropolitan Los Angeles. The votes — to revoke federal waivers that allow California to regulate maritime pollution — took place despite a federal judge’s scathing ruling that the way the Trump administration was pursuing the deregulation is not legal. They were the latest attempt by the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers to roll back California pollution regulations and do away with the state’s authority to adopt vehicle pollution controls stricter than the federal government’s. Last year, the president and Republican-majority Congress revoked three other federal waivers, including one that would’ve allowed California to effectively ban the sale of new gas-only cars by 2035. The Environmental Protection Agency has been initiating these changes, and in June, it sent several more waivers for Congress to review, prompting the California attorney general’s office to file a lawsuit. It was that lawsuit that led to the strong words from D.C. District Judge Beryl Howell on Sept. 2. Ruling against the EPA, she said its broad power “does not mean the agency has the right to do whatever it wants, let alone take action that is likely unlawful, arbitrary and capricious...” Congress voted to reverse California’s authority anyway. The bills still need to pass the Senate and President Trump’s signature to become law, yet the way they proceeded has already set off a heated debate over whether the result would be valid. Ann Carlson, an environmental law professor at UCLA, said the dispute raises novel legal questions. “We’re in uncharted territory, here,” Carlson said. “And that includes complicated questions about separation of powers. We have the judiciary, the executive [branch] and Congress all involved in questions of the exercise of administrative authority.” Under the Clean Air Act, California can adopt vehicle emission standards stricter than the federal government, so long as it obtains federal waivers from the U.S. EPA. The Trump administration has argued these federal waivers are “rules” that were never properly brought before Congress for review, so they may be overturned via the Congressional Review Act. But the nonpartisan U.S. Government Accountability Office and the Senate parliamentarian both maintain the federal waivers are “orders,” which cannot be overturned by Congress. Judge Howell agreed with them, saying the EPA either intentionally misled Congress or unlawfully reclassified the waivers as “rules.” “Such gamesmanship may seem like a clever policy move, but undermines honest compliance with the law, which is what Americans should expect from executive branch agencies,” she wrote. However, Howell acknowledged that a federal court “lacks power” to prevent Congress — a coequal branch of government — from voting to repeal the waivers. It remains unclear if the case will appear before Howell if the bills become law. The two maritime-related waivers drastically cut smog-forming emissions and cancer-causing diesel exhaust near California ports. Numerous environmental groups, angered by Congress’ votes on the waivers, said they were confident the state’s authority would prevail in a Senate vote or upcoming court rulings. “Republicans in Congress are working overtime to please Trump and give polluters a free pass, all while knowing it won’t do anything to address the soaring gas prices and energy bills everyday Americans are facing,” said Aaron McCall, an organizer with California Environmental Voters. “This isn’t over,” he added. “California is fighting back against this blatant and illegal attack.”
Ships blamed for bulk of chronic ocean oil pollution –--Ships are associated with the overwhelming majority of attributable chronic oil pollution at sea, according to a new global analysis from satellite-monitoring group SkyTruth. The study estimates that around 1.58m sq km of ocean surface is covered by oil slicks each year, with more than 90% occurring inside national waters, often close to coastlines. By combining Sentinel-1 radar imagery collected between 2023 and 2025 with data from SkyTruth’s Cerulean monitoring platform, researchers estimate that 81% of attributable annual slick area is linked to vessels, including both AIS-tracked ships and so-called dark vessels operating without visible tracking signals.Merchant ships were the dominant vessel types associated with slicks. Pollution hotspots (see map below) include the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Mediterranean and Black Sea, waters off West Africa and around Indonesia. SkyTruth also found several flags disproportionately represented relative to fleet size, including Palau, Panama, Malta and Cyprus, raising questions over flag-state oversight.< The analysis identified 16 individual vessels associated with oil slicks in more than 10% of observed satellite passes, as well as several offshore facilities, particularly off Indonesia and Nigeria. Marine protected areas generally fared better, with around 75% recording lower slick concentrations than surrounding waters, although sensitive habitats in the Black Sea and Gulf of Mexico remain affected. Karl Wuster, SkyTruth’s chief technology officer, said chronic oil pollution was “far more often than the spills that make headlines”. The report also highlighted a major blind spot: limited satellite coverage on the high seas means large areas remain poorly observed, while opaque vessel ownership structures continue to hamper accountability.
Mexico Natural Gas Demand Signals Growth Across Industrial, Data Center Hubs - Industrial users in Mexico's northern border states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo León are seeking more natural gas than any other region of the country, according to a new public consultation by national pipeline operator Cenagas.Mexico natural gas flows total 8.212 Bcf/d, led by 5.334 Bcf/d from South Texas and 2.084 Bcf/d from West Texas on Sept. 23, 2026. At a Glance:
Tamaulipas demand seen at 470 MMcf/d
Nuevo León follows at 351 MMcf/d
Companies eye 357 potential delivery points
Wolf Midstream announces $500-MM phase three expansion of its NGL North System - Wolf Midstream (Wolf) has reached a final investment decision to proceed with an expansion of its proprietary NGL North System, representing an incremental investment of approximately $500 million in Alberta, with support from its shareholder, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments). Following the successful rollout of Wolf’s NGL North Phase Two expansion announced in July 2024, this expansion (Phase Three) will increase production of natural gas liquids (NGL) for use in domestic and international markets. NGL North is Wolf’s integrated system that recovers, separates and transports NGL, including ethane, propane, butane and condensate, from natural gas in Alberta. This expansion will add approximately 0.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas processing to the NGL North System. It will also include a natural gas-fired cogeneration facility, expanded de-ethanization capacity and an expanded unit-train rail terminal at Wolf Feedstock Separation (WFS). The vast majority of anticipated NGL production from Phase Three is contracted under long-term, fixed-fee commercial arrangements against investment-grade counterparty credit. With all required permits and approvals secured, construction and development activities on the core components of this expansion are already well underway, as further described below. Wolf is adding a third NGL recovery train at each of its two northern Alberta recovery facilities: Wolf Recovery Facility 1 (WRF 1), located near Mariana Lake, Alberta, and Wolf Recovery Facility 2 (WRF 2), located northwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta. At WRF 2, which is currently under construction, the additional train will increase total processing capacity to over 1.1 Bcf/d. WRF 2, including this expansion, is anticipated to be in service in early 2027. At WRF 1, the additional train will increase total processing capacity to approximately 1 Bcf/d. The WRF 1 expansion is anticipated to be in service in mid-2028. Combined, both WRF 1 and WRF 2 will have total processing capacity of over 2.1 Bcf/d with all recovered NGL shipped by pipeline to WFS for separation into high purity, specification products. WFS, located in Sturgeon County, Alberta, is being expanded to include a third de-ethanizer tower, increasing total NGL production capacity to approximately 110,000 bpd, including more than 80,000 bpd of ethane. This expansion is anticipated to be in service in early 2027. Wolf is also adding a 37-megawatt natural gas-fired cogeneration facility at WFS to generate both heat and power for the site. The cogeneration facility is anticipated to be in service in 2028. In addition, Wolf is expanding the unit-train rail facility at WFS, bringing initial rail loading capacity to approximately 60,000 bpd to accommodate both Wolf and third party volumes. The expanded unit train facility is expected to be in service later this year.
FortisBC Clears Environmental Hurdle for Tilbury LNG Expansion - FortisBC has secured federal and provincial environmental approvals for its proposed Tilbury Phase 2 LNG expansion, passing a key regulatory hurdle as the utility advances additional storage and liquefaction capacity near Vancouver. At a Glance:
- Tilbury clears environmental reviews
- Expansion could add 2.5 Mt/y
- Canada courts new LNG customers
Woodfibre LNG Feedgas Pipeline Clears Major Tunneling Milestone -- A key natural gas supply link for Woodfibre LNG has finished work on a complex construction stage, keeping work moving on infrastructure needed to support the British Columbia (BC) export project’s planned 2027 startup. At a Glance:
- Feedgas tunnel excavation completed
- Pipeline installation scheduled to begin
- Project targets late 2027 commissioning
Latin America Energy Sector Gains Momentum With US Backing for Argentina LNG -The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) has proposed $6 billion of financing for the 12 Mt/y Argentina LNG project. At a Glance:
- EXIM proposes $6B financing for project
- Funds would support U.S. goods, services
- Comes amid rush into Latin America energy
Global Energy Firms Target Venezuela as Trinidad LNG Opportunity Grows - US and global oil and natural gas firms are pouring into Venezuela as the country’s new commercial frameworks and bountiful resources attract international attention. At a Glance:
- Natural gas reserves total about 200 Tcf
- Flaring wastes nearly half of output
- Atlantic LNG offers idle export capacity
TTF Prices Dip, but Low European Storage, US LNG Facility Maintenance Loom - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. Graphic:US LNG feedgas deliveries total 17.45 million Dth on Sept. 23, 2026, led by Plaquemines, Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG.
- 18.3 Bcf/d: Deliveries to US LNG export terminals were at 18.3 Bcf/d Wednesday, according to NGI’s Entropic Analytics data. Feedgas deliveries averaged 18.2 Bcf/d over the past seven gas days, compared with a 30-day average near 18.7 Bcf/d. The shorter term average was weighed down by the start of annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland, which removed roughly 0.85 Bcf/d of feedgas demand beginning Saturday. September deliveries have averaged 18.7 Bcf/d month-to-date, up from 17.9 Bcf/d in August, after reaching 19.4 Bcf/d on Sept. 6.
- 15 MMcf/d: Feedgas deliveries to Cove Point LNG have held near 15 MMcf/d since the terminal began annual maintenance Saturday, down from about 870 MMcf/d on Friday, according to Entropic Analytics data. In each of the past two years, Cove Point feedgas flows stayed minimal until around the second week of October. Related work at the Pleasant Valley compressor station is scheduled through Oct. 2. Elsewhere, deliveries to Corpus Christi LNG via the Corpus Christi Pipeline have run 2.3–2.4 Bcf/d since Sept. 20, compared with about 2.7 Bcf/d the prior week. Golden Pass LNG nominations climbed to 0.5–0.6 Bcf/d over the same span.
- $24.64/MMBtu: Trading firm Mind Energy said European natural gas prices remain vulnerable to another move higher heading into the heating season despite the sharp correction over the past week, citing low inventories in Germany and the Netherlands and continued geopolitical uncertainty. October Title Transfer Facility settled near $24.64 Monday, down from $26.66 Thursday and from roughly $28 at last week’s peak. European Union natural gas storage was 70.1% full as of Monday, about 176 TWh below the five-year average, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe and NGI calculations.
- 2.54 Mt: US LNG exports totaled 2.54 Mt during the week ended Sunday, according to Kpler vessel tracking data. That lifted the four-week average to 2.44 Mt, up 14% year/year from 2.14 Mt. Europe took 1.23 Mt, in line with its four-week average, led by a record 0.52 Mt to the Netherlands. Declared deliveries to Asia fell to 0.15 Mt, their lowest since late January, trimming the region’s share of US exports to 18% so far in September. Asian buyers took around 40% of US LNG exports in May and June. Latin America took 0.36 Mt during the week, which included a record 0.15 Mt to Colombia. Egypt’s four-week average slipped to 0.16 Mt, less than half its June–July pace of 0.35 Mt.
EU Shrugs Off Gas Supply Fears Despite Low Storage Levels -The European Union’s natural gas supply remains stable, according to the Gas Coordination Group, which advises the European Commission on coordinating security-of-supply measures in the event of an EU or regional emergency.The Gas Coordination Group met again this week to take stock of the current gas market situation, the European Commission said on Friday.“Despite lower storage levels compared to historical levels, the Commission and EU countries reconfirmed that EU gas supply remains stable,” the EC said. “The Commission will keep monitoring the situation very closely in cooperation with EU countries and stakeholders.”Europe’s gas supply has been under scrutiny since the end of the previous winter as Asian and European gas prices spiked in March following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Even as crude oil cargoes have been pushing through the Strait with millions of barrels per day every day, LNG cargoes have struggled to transit the chokepoint as the gas is trickier to reload in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers as the oil exporters have been doing for months.The choked LNG flows from the Middle East in the past six months have sent gas prices in Asia and Europe to the highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis as buyers are competing for available supply that doesn't need to move through the Strait of Hormuz.As a result, European gas storage levels are at a historical low and well below last year’s and the five-year average of over 80% full.As of September 24, gas storage sites in the EU were only 70% full, per data by Gas Infrastructure Europe. Some major economies, including the biggest, Germany, have even lower-than-average gas stored so far this filling season. Germany’s vast storage, the world’s fourth-largest, is just about 57% full, which has prompted concerns about supply security if the coming winter turns out much colder than previous winters.
More LNG Cargoes Diverting as Global Supplies Remain Tight -Iran has put forward a plan to end fighting with the United States, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start talks to address its nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters at the United Nations General Assembly this week that the plan is similar to a memorandum of understanding signed in June that halted hostilities but ultimately collapsed. The latest plan has been submitted to the United States, where officials have said discussions are ongoing, but no deal is imminent.
TotalEnergies Advances Offshore Natural Gas Development for Nigeria LNG - Nigeria is adding another major source of feedgas for its expanding LNG sector, with TotalEnergies sanctioning a 350 MMcf/d project as exports continue to recover. At a Glance:
- Train 7 gains new feedgas
- Exports surpass full-year 2025 volumes
- Asia leads Nigerian LNG demand
Here’s what the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown means for Asia’s biggest crude importers - The shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline stands to squeeze already-scarce crude supply for Asia's four biggest crude importers, with South Korea appearing the most directly exposed. Saudi crude accounted for 34.1% of South Korean crude imports in July, according to the Korea International Trade Association. It's at 27.3% of imports into Japan, government data show, and 14.9% of China's imports, according to customs data. For India, the figure is 10.2%, Kpler data show. While Asian markets' dependence on Saudi crude do not directly translate into the number of barrels exposed to the pipelines shutdown, export constraints at the Hormuz Strait have shifted a substantial volume of the Kingdom's exports westward to the pipeline-linked Yanbu port. Thomas Luedi, Asia-Pacific head of energy and natural resources at Bain & Company, said that Yanbu had taken over the large majority of Saudi exports previously shipped through Gulf terminals. Luedi puts the total volume of Asia-bound supply at risk at about 4 million bpd, while Oriano Lizza, sales trader at CMC Markets, estimated between 3.5 million and 4.5 million bpd once stored crude in Yanbu and Egypt run down. The oil market will lose 120 million barrels if the pipeline is closed for a month and storage is drawn down at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. This assumes the pipeline carries 4.5 million bpd of exports and 15 million barrels are stored at Yanbu, Smith said. Stored crude, alternative Gulf loadings or a partial pipeline restart could substantially reduce the number of barrels ultimately disrupted. For refiners, the more immediate effect may be cost rather than a shortage of crude. "Asian refiners feel the cost immediately and the physical shortage weeks later," Lizza said, identifying widening premiums for medium-sour grades, along with higher delivered freight costs, as the first signs of stress. "The biggest near-term impact is likely to be on oil prices and freight costs rather than physical availability," Chokwai Lee, director of equity research, told CNBC. The impact to crude flow is expected to be felt much later into the year. Luedi and Lizza estimated that stored crude at Yanbu and in Egypt could keep exports moving for roughly one to two weeks. Once those stocks are depleted and if the pipeline remains closed, loadings could begin to slip, while replacement cargoes from the Americas or West Africa can take more than a month to reach Asia. Macquarie strategists expect the impact of Saudi flow disruption to be tamped down by greater feedstock flexibility, noting that Asian refiners have improved their capabilities in processing a broader range of crude grades which will support increased flexibility in the spot market. The duration of the disruption remains unclear, with the Kingdom providing no timeline on the pipeline's restoration. The Associated Press and Reuters reported that repairs might take between three to six weeks. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC last week that the vital Saudi East-West crude oil pipeline would resume operations "very soon."
Italy Pushes Refineries to Raise Fuel Output Amid Price Surge - Italy’s industry and energy security ministers will meet with executives from the Italian refining sector in early October to discuss how refineries could raise diesel and gasoline production to help lower the record-high fuel prices.Adolfo Urso, the Industry Minister, and his Environment and Energy Security colleague, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, have invited refining industry executives to a meeting on October 8 to discuss potential measures to boost domestic fuel output, Italy’s Industry Ministry said on Friday.Representatives from Italy’s sector association, Unem, as well as from refining and energy companies Sonatrach, Socar-IP, Iplom, KPI, Alma Petroli, Ludoil/Isab, Eni, Saras, and Innovhub, are invited to attend the meeting. Gasoline and diesel prices in Italy have soared in recent weeks, with the average price of gasoline hitting 2.14 euros per liter this week, or the equivalent of nearly $10 per gallon. Diesel prices are even higher, due to the jump in international crude oil prices and the global diesel crunch, which Europe has felt particularly badly.The Italian government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has spent so far this year about 3 billion euros, or $3.4 billion, to fund several rounds of tax and excise duty cuts on fuels. Italy, alongside the other major economies in Europe such as Germany and France, has seen record-high diesel prices in recent days.Refinery capacity is constrained in the Middle East due to Iranian strikes on refineries and the trickle of fuel flows through Hormuz, which are much lower than the crude oil cargoes estimated to be transiting the chokepoint every day.Then there is also severely restricted refining capacity in Russia due to Ukrainian drone strikes at Russian refineries. Russia has banned diesel exports until the end of September and is likely to extend the ban through the end of October.Record-high gasoline and diesel prices in many European markets did what European policymakers couldn’t do in years - shift consumer choice to low-emission vehicles.Battery electric vehicle sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, surged by 52.2% in August from a year earlier as record-high gasoline and diesel prices prompted drivers to flock to battery and hybrid vehicles, data by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, showed earlier this week.
Oil prices slide as Middle East peace hopes override supply risks - Crude oil prices fell to a one-week low on Monday as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict outweighed renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and fresh threats between Washington and Tehran. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $100.5 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $97.21, as traders priced in the possibility of diplomatic progress at a United Nations meeting this week. The decline came despite fresh threats exchanged between the United States and Iran over the weekend. The US president threatened Iran with economic collapse and regime failure unless Tehran agreed to a deal, while Iran warned that any US attack would trigger a harsh response, according to Reuters. The conflict also widened as Yemen’s Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, striking several targets over the weekend, including Riyadh. The escalation is significant for oil markets because it threatens infrastructure and shipping routes around two critical oil chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. However, the renewed diplomatic hopes have temporarily outweighed those supply risks. “It seems that a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, according to Reuters. “Whether that hope proves to be warranted or not is another question. Time will tell,” he said. Read also: Saudi oil shock puts Nigeria in line for Europe’s crude scramble A recovery in Saudi Arabia’s ability to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz has also eased concerns over an immediate supply shock. According to JPMorgan, Saudi Arabia exported about 2.9 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, up sharply from around 700,000bpd in August. The increase suggests Saudi Arabia has found ways to redirect and restore crude flows despite the disruption to regional energy infrastructure and shipping. However, the sustainability of those flows remains important for oil markets, particularly as military attacks continue and diplomatic efforts have yet to produce a confirmed agreement.
WTI Below $100 bbl on Likelihood of US-Iran Summit (DTN) -- U.S. crude futures dipped beneath $100 bbl Monday (9/21), leading a broad slide in energy market premiums, as the likelihood of a U.S. and Iranian summit loomed while the Middle East war edged toward its eighth month. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian could have their first face-to-face meeting at this week's United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, with Trump reportedly telling a news channel that he would "probably" be open to a sit-down with his Iranian counterpart. Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the assembly on Tuesday regarding the Middle East conflict and hold diplomatic talks on the sidelines later. By 9:12 a.m. ET, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $3.34, or 3.42%, to $96.96 bbl. The session low was $96.79. ICE Brent for November delivery moved down $2.96, or 2.87%, to $100.91 bbl. It reached as low as $100.20 earlier in the day. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.1270, or 2.91%, to $4.9308 gallon. The session low was $4.8719. RBOB for October retreated $0.0397, or 1.09%, to $3.4879 gallon. It dropped to as low as $3.4150 for the session. Energy markets took their cue from Tehran's submission of a seven-point proposal to Washington via Qatari intermediaries to re-establish formal negotiations. The Iranians are demanding a total end to military operations, the unfreezing of Iranian state assets, and an immediate lifting of the naval blockade. Despite the looming diplomatic overtures, physical supply risks remain active across key Middle East infrastructure. Yemen's Houthi forces launched fresh strikes over the weekend against targets in Riyadh and a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu. Chinese officials have reportedly pressured Tehran to curb Houthi aggression in the Red Sea, following direct appeals from Riyadh. Equipment damage along Aramco's 7 million bpd East-West pipeline has forced the state oil giant to shift export allocations back toward Persian Gulf terminals. Secondary tracking and satellite data indicate Saudi crude flows moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd over the past six days, versus the 700,000 bpd monthly average recorded in August.c
Oil Market Plunges on Hopes for Middle East Peace Breakthrough - The oil market sold off sharply on Monday, falling to its lowest level since September 9th, as traders hoped for a breakthrough in peace talks this week during the United Nations meeting. The market was also pressured amid news of a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia. On Sunday, Iran and the U.S. exchanged new threats, although U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York this week for the U.N. General Assembly. The crude market posted a high of $101.08 on the opening on Sunday evening and sold off more than $6 as it posted a low of $94.22 in afternoon trading. The market retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $79.62 to a high of $106.75 before it settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The October WTI contract ended the session down $4.52 at $95.78 and the November Brent contract settled down $3.53 at $100.34. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 16.83 cents at $4.8895 and the RB market settling down 5.77 cents at $3.4699. According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 284.6 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. The New York Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump wavered for weeks over Saudi Arabia’s appeals for help in fighting the Houthis. On Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called the President Trump to implore him, again, to step in to help fight the Houthis. President Trump, who met with advisers just the day before and told them he did not favor strikes, reversed his decision and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes against the Houthis. However by midday Sunday, President appeared to have changed his decision again. According to administration officials, there would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis, at least not for the time being. The current and former officials said that defeating the Houthis would be difficult, even with the U.S. military helping the Saudis. North Dakota’s Industrial Commission reported that the state’s oil production in North Dakota increased by 2,000 bpd to 1,157,000 bpd in July. Bakken and Three Forks oil production stood at 1,129,000 bpd in the month. Iraq’s Oil Ministry said the country managed to export 4 million barrels of oil in one day in September bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the daily average in September stands at 2.6 million bpd. The Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Massoud Suleman, said Libya’s 300,000 bpd Sharara oilfield has seen a partial reduction in production of about 200,000 bpd. Its current production is between 100,000 bpd and 105,000 bpd. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 663,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 25th, increasing available refining capacity by 194,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 622,000 bpd in the week ending October 2nd.
Oil Prices Rise as Markets Await US-Iran Talks - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets stabilized after several days of declines, with investors watching for developments in possible US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York this week. Brent crude futures for November delivery rose 22 cents, or 0.22%, to $100.57 a barrel by 0021 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Tuesday, gained 2 cents, or 0.02%, to $95.80 a barrel. Iran and the United States exchanged threats on Sunday, but US President Donald Trump signaled that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York this week for the UN General Assembly. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the rise in WTI and strong opening for Brent appeared to be a traditional rebound driven by short-covering following recent declines, rather than a shift in market fundamentals. "Traders who had bet on further declines are trimming some of their risk as diplomatic developments unfold," Waterer said. Iranian media reported that Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview on Saturday that Tehran had conveyed its conditions to mediators for resuming negotiations aimed at ending the war with the United States. Waterer expected oil prices to remain within a narrow range and highly sensitive to news until there is clear progress or a setback in diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. The Middle East remains tense after Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen said they had attacked Riyadh and a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, while stepping up efforts to isolate Saudi-led coalition forces supporting Yemen's internationally recognized government from the Red Sea coast. Three Iranian sources said China had secretly urged Tehran to help halt Houthi attacks.
Oil Below $100 Bbl as U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Awaited at U.N. (DTN) -- Crude futures fell for a fifth straight session Tuesday (9/22) as energy markets awaited hints at diplomacy from U.N. general assembly speeches by U.S. President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian that could signal a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to oil and other energy shipments. The front-month contracts for both WTI and Brent crude both remained beneath $100 bbl after a senior Iranian official was quoted telling media that the U.N. podium in New York would present a "golden opportunity" for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade on Iranian cargoes and for Tehran to reciprocate by reopening the Hormuz. Trump has told a news channel that he would "probably" be open to a sit-down with Pezeshkian. Neither the White House nor the Iranian authorities have confirmed any face-to-face talks between the two presidents. Both leaders will address the assembly this week, Trump scheduled to go on Tuesday after U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Pezeshkian on Wednesday (9/23). It will be the first event featuring the two leaders since the earnest start of the U.S.-Iran war in March, and Pezeshkian's first appearance on U.S. soil amid the seven-month-long conflict. By 9:26 a.m. ET, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $2.44, or 2.57%, to $93.34 bbl. The session high was $97.42. ICE Brent for November delivery moved down $2.00, or 1.97%, to $98.34 bbl. It reached as high as $102.30 earlier in the day. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.0989, or 2.14%, to $4.7906 gallon. It peaked at $4.9571 during the session. RBOB for October advanced $0.0140, or 0.59%, to $3.4839 gallon. The high for the day was $3.5040. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.014 points to 100.170 against a basket of currencies. Crude futures have lost about $10 bbl since the close of September 15 despite preliminary tanker tracking services on the Hormuz reporting the passage of only two commodity-carrying vessels on Monday (9/21) compared with 10 at the weekend. Despite the market's focus on a potential breakthrough in the conflict, Bank of America raised its second-half Brent crude forecast, warning of a spike toward $150 bbl if geopolitical tensions worsened and physical supply bottlenecks persisted. BofA noted that while diplomatic overtures offered temporary headline relief, spare production capacity across key producers remained exceptionally constrained following months of infrastructure damage and regional transport diversions. Structural risks to global energy flows remain active on multiple fronts. In the southern Red Sea corridor, ongoing clashes between Houthi forces and Saudi-backed units in Yemen continue to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime bypass Saudi Arabia relies upon to route crude into global channels. In North Africa, output from Libya's 340,000 bpd Sharara field dropped to approximately 127,000 bpd after an armed faction blockaded a pipeline connecting the asset to the Zawiya export terminal. Meanwhile, middle distillate markets remain structurally tight as Russia contemplates extending its producer-level diesel export ban into October. Continuous Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic refineries have crimped Russian processing capacity, helping drive diesel and heating oil prices to multi-year highs across Western markets.
Oil Market Slides as Saudi Exports Resume - The crude market on Tuesday remained pressured amid the prospects increased oil flow from the Middle East, with Iran signaling it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia set to resume its oil exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. A senior Iranian official said Iran can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. eases its military pressure and lifts it blockade on Iranian ports. He said the Iranian delegation to the UN General Assembly had the authority to revive diplomacy with the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline and could resume its exports from the Yanbu port later on Tuesday. The oil market retraced some of Monday’s losses in overnight trading and posted a high of $97.42. However, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $92.40 as the market awaited news on a possible diplomatic breakthrough. The market later traded back towards its high after U.S. President Donald Trump that a peace deal with Iran would not come until after the U.S. midterm elections in November. The October WTI futures went off the board down $1.19 at $94.59 and the November settled down $1.85 at $90.52. The November Brent contract settled down $1.09 at $99.25. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 5.26 cents at $4.9421 and the RB market settling up 1.76 cents at $3.4875. U.S. President Donald Trump said he supported the idea of a ban on diesel exports, which lawmakers from farm states are calling for as a way to curb the increasing cost of energy. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the administration was examining whether such a ban was feasible and whether a full or partial ban would work. President Trump’s support of a diesel export ban puts him at odds with his own top energy officials, who warn it could raise fuel prices on the coasts and tighten supplies for European allies. Preliminary shipping data showed that commodity vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to two on Monday from 10 a day earlier. At the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, 26 vessels crossed on Monday, unchanged from a day earlier. Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026, saying prolonged geopolitical tensions through the end of the year were now its base-case scenario. The bank raised its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $95/barrel from $83/barrel. BofA said disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may have peaked at about 14 million bpd, noting they had more recently averaged 4 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels. Fitch Ratings maintained its 2026 Brent crude price assumption at $87/barrel. However, it raised its 2027 Brent price forecast to $70/barrel. It said it expects Brent prices to fall once flows through the East-West Pipeline resume. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said that the Sharara-Zawiya crude loading pipeline closure has led to daily losses of about 130,000 bpd. On Monday, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said an armed military group closed valve seven on Libya’s Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port. It warned that a prolonged closure could halt Sharara’s output as well as transport and export operations, damage state revenues and force the shutdown of the Zawiya refinery. The corporation urged the group to reopen the pipeline immediately and said it could be forced to declare force majeure if the closure persists.
Oil prices fall below $100 after Trump signals progress in Iran talks - Global oil prices fell on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said American and Iranian representatives had held “very good” and productive discussions on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped below the $100-per-barrel mark, while US West Texas Intermediate also declined as investors responded to renewed hopes that diplomatic engagement could ease tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude fell to $98.41 per barrel in afternoon Asian trading, while WTI declined to $89.23 per barrel. Trump told reporters that the three-hour meeting between the US and Iranian representatives was productive and that another round of discussions had been scheduled. “They had a very good meeting, a very productive meeting — they have another one scheduled in the very near future,” Trump said. The comments came only hours after Trump delivered a strongly worded speech at the UN General Assembly, in which he said he was considering whether to reach an agreement with Iran or take further military action against the Islamic Republic. The latest movement in oil prices reflected expectations that renewed diplomatic contact could reduce the risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Stephen Innes of Quintex Intel said the three-hour US-Iran meeting had shifted market sentiment from focusing primarily on escalation towards the possibility of a diplomatic process, although he noted that a final agreement remained distant. The conflict has disrupted energy markets since US-Israeli strikes triggered war in February. Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the United States has maintained a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. The situation has also affected energy flows in the Red Sea, where conflict involving Saudi-backed government forces and Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen has placed additional pressure on regional exports. Trump has previously said oil prices would fall once the United States achieves its military objectives in the conflict. The decline in crude prices also coincided with reports that Saudi Arabia had restarted operations along its East-West Pipeline, a major export route that had been shut following drone attacks. The world’s largest crude oil exporter is reportedly targeting a resumption of exports through the route later in the week. Bloomberg reported that Saudi oil giant Aramco had informed some Asian refiners that they could soon collect crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. However, European buyers were reportedly told that they would not receive allocations for October. Meanwhile, Asian financial markets recorded mixed performances as investors assessed developments in the energy market and the wider global economy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell one per cent, while Shanghai’s Composite Index declined 0.4 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively. European markets opened higher, while investors also looked ahead to a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to focus on trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. Analysts said developments in the Middle East remained a major factor for oil markets, with attention also focused on whether China could use its influence with Tehran to support diplomatic efforts. At about 0215 GMT, WTI was down 1.4 per cent at $89.23 per barrel, while Brent crude was down 0.9 per cent at $98.41 per barrel.
Oil Holds Highs After Total Crude Stocks Rose, US Production & Gasoline Demand Dipped - Oil prices reversed initial losses (Brent back above $100) on Wednesday amid persistent Middle East supply risks, as investors weighed the prospect of improved Saudi export flows and U.S.-Iran diplomacy against the potential for further disruptions. Saudi Arabia has begun testing its East-West pipeline for structural integrity and pressure, a step toward restoring oil flows after attacks knocked out the route earlier this month. Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart within a couple of days if the tests are successful, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. U.S. envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said in a post on X that American officials engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through mediators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The mediators shuttled between the two sides throughout the day and completed a round of discussions that the U.S. hopes will prove constructive and promising, he said. Reports of fresh attacks this morning didn't help any diplomatic optimism, but expectations (driven by last night's API report) suggest crude stocks stabilizing while product stocks are drawing down... API :
- Crude +1.8mm
- Cushing +2.1mm
- Gasoline -2.2mm
- Distillates -2.2mm
DOE:
- Crude +2.97mm
- Cushing +2.27mm
- Gasoline -1.69mm
- Distillates -428k
Cushing stocks bounced off 'tank bottoms' and crude inventories jumped last week while product stocks both saw modest draws... The SPR saw a very modest 405k barrel drain last week - the second tiny drain in a row since the war began. Last week's sizable Crude build was enbough to offset the drain and create only the second weekly build in total crude stocks since early April... ...as the caves hit 'tank' bottoms.. The dip in US distillates stocks leaves it 15% below seasonal averages (and a record low for this time of year)... Crude production edged lower to 13.94 million barrels a day last week, down by 5,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The small drop came even as the number of rigs drilling rose for a third straight week, with another two units put into operation, according to Baker Hughes. The 4-week moving average for US gasoline demand slipped by 49,000 per day for the EIA week, but remains within seasonal norms... WTI was trading around $92 ahead of the official data and is maintaining those highs since... Bank of America raised its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $95 a barrel from $83, citing the large disruption to crude and refined-product supplies. Continued skirmishes through year-end are now its most likely scenario, while alternative routes and escorted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have mitigated some of the shortfall, Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research said. Damaged infrastructure and geopolitical tensions make a rapid normalization unlikely, he added.
Oil Futures Jump, ULSD Dips Despite Weekly Inventory Build (DTN) -- Crude oil futures climbed nearly 5% Wednesday, even as Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a weekly increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories. Front-month NYMEX ULSD futures, meanwhile, fell after a White House official denied reports that the U.S. was considering a diesel export ban to help lower domestic prices. Crude benchmarks rose amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could widen, even after U.S. and Iranian officials held their first talks since June on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, with signals suggesting little willingness to reach a ceasefire. Additionally, reports that fewer vessels were transiting the Strait of Hormuz and supply issues in Saudi Arabia following a pipeline disruption overshadowed U.S. federal data showing a weekly build in crude oil inventories. On Wednesday, the EIA reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3 million bbl to 426.4 million bbl during the week ended Sept. 18, reversing the previous week's 600,000 bbl decline. Stocks were 11.6 million bbl, or 2.8%, above the 414.8 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million bbl to 206 million bbl, reversing the previous week's 800,000 bbl build and bringing stocks back near the nearly 10-month low reached in late August. Distillate fuel inventories declined by 400,000 bbl to 107.4 million bbl, ending three consecutive weekly builds. Stocks remained 15.6 million bbl, or 12.7%, below the 123 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. The ICE Brent futures contract for November shipments rose $4.39, or 4.42%, to $103.64 bbl, while NYMEX WTI crude for November delivery climbed $2.16, or 2.39%, to $92.68 bbl. In contrast, the NYMEX ULSD futures contract for October delivery dipped $0.1139, or 2.30%, to $4.8282 gallon. Meanwhile, the front-month RBOB futures contract rose $0.1141, or 3.27%, to $3.5254 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.496 points to 100.815 against a basket of currencies.
Oil settles up around 4% as Iran's president vows to never surrender (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up just shy of 4% a barrel on Wednesday in choppy trade, as traders evaluated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's vow never to surrender, a day after US President Donald Trump warned he could "annihilate" Iran. Brent crude futures settled up $3.83, or 3.86%, to $103.08 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained $1.64, or 1.81%, to $92.16. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures were down around 5% after Politico reported the Trump administration was preparing plans for a 90-day diesel ban, a story the White House then denied. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had said earlier on Wednesday that a diesel export ban would not work. Analysts and market watchers have warned that such a move would do little to ease high energy prices and could worsen global supplies and further disrupt economies. Driving oil prices higher was the speech at the UN General Assembly in New York by Pezeshkian, who said on Wednesday that Tehran would never surrender to the US but still believes in diplomacy. On Tuesday, Trump used a speech at the same forum to make his threat. Tehran was reviewing the US response to its proposal to end hostilities, though many differences remain, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of Washington's naval blockade on Iran were discussed during indirect talks on Tuesday, the official said. Earlier on Wednesday, Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened while Iran's conditions are not met. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended September 18, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 641,000-barrel draw. Fuel stocks fell. On Tuesday, the Brent benchmark hit its lowest since September 8 at $97.36. Early on Wednesday, WTI touched its lowest since September 1. Prices were pressured by more supplies flowing out of the Middle East and hopes for a peace deal soon between Washington and Tehran. Saudi Arabia resumed operations on its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea on Tuesday, according to three sources briefed on the matter. Drone attacks, which Saudi Arabia has blamed on Iraqi militia, forced the kingdom to shut the pipeline on September 11, halting crude loadings at Yanbu port. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia offered more barrels to Asian refiners for lifting from locations outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's minister said on Tuesday the country is exporting more than 3 million bpd, and expects to boost exports via Turkey to more than 600,000 barrels per day. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Ukraine and Russia have both voiced an interest in a limited ceasefire involving grain and energy-related targets, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in New York.
Oil Prices Fall as Iran Signals Openness to Diplomacy - Oil prices fell on Thursday after rising 4% in the previous session, as Iran said it remained open to diplomacy to end the war with the United States. Brent crude futures fell 94 cents, or 0.9%, to $102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 59 cents, or 0.7%, to $91.56 a barrel. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that Iran and the United States remained far apart on how to end the war, but diplomatic efforts should continue. The comments came after the Iranian president told the UN General Assembly that Tehran would never yield to US pressure. The official said Tehran was considering Washington’s response to its proposals for ending the war. The proposals focus on lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The official said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade were discussed during indirect talks on Tuesday. Earlier Wednesday, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened unless Iran’s conditions were met. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that reaching an agreement with Iran would require hard work over a period of time, adding that President Donald Trump also had military options. Meanwhile, traders were assessing potential restrictions on diesel exports. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures fell nearly 5% in midday trading after Politico reported that the Trump administration was preparing plans for a 90-day ban on diesel exports. The White House denied the report. However, Bloomberg later reported, citing sources, that Energy Secretary Chris Wright had asked oil industry leaders to prepare for possible US restrictions on diesel exports during phone calls held late Tuesday. Wright said earlier Wednesday that a diesel export ban would not be effective, despite Trump saying he would support such a measure. Analysts and market observers warned that such a move would do little to ease rising energy prices, while potentially worsening the global supply crisis and causing further disruption to economies. At the same time, US crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 641,000 barrels. Fuel inventories fell.
Oil prices jump 4% as Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped about 4% to a one-week high on Thursday after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia and diplomatic talks between the US and Iran showed little sign of progress. Brent futures rose $4.10, or 4.0%, to $107.18 a barrel at 11:09 a.m. EDT (1509 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $3.66, or 4.0%, to $95.82. After climbing about 8% over the past two days, Brent futures were on track to close at their highest since September 15. WTI was on track to rise for the first time in seven days after falling about 13% over the prior six days. Saudi Arabia intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis on Thursday, thwarting attacks on the southern province of Taif and Yanbu area on the Red Sea, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said. Iranian flights to Gulf neighbors, including travel hub Dubai, appeared to have been canceled on Thursday after a US deadline passed for global firms to halt work with Iran's airlines, a major step in a campaign US President Donald Trump calls "economic D-Day." With the US-Israeli war against Iran largely stalemated for months on the battlefield, Washington has announced a shift in tactics to extend the reach of its financial sanctions by targeting companies from third countries that do business with Iranian firms, a practice known as "secondary sanctions". Iran threatened on Wednesday to retaliate against any neighboring countries that comply with the US ban on its flights, by making their airports "unusable". Iran and the United States remain far apart on how to end their war but diplomacy must continue, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, after Iran's president told the UN General Assembly that Tehran would never surrender to US pressure. Separately, Saudi Arabia is building up crude pumping volumes through its East-West Pipeline that runs to its Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, although crude tanker loadings have yet to resume, according to industry sources, satellite imagery and shipping data. With diesel prices hitting record highs in recent weeks, high-level contacts between the European Union and the United States are ongoing amid a reported US plan to ban diesel exports that the EU believes would potentially have a negative impact on both sides. Politico reported that the US was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports amid a spike in prices ahead of the November midterm elections, though US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has disputed that. Analysts and market watchers have warned a US diesel export ban would do little to ease high energy prices and could worsen global supplies and further disrupt economies. US diesel futures were trading up over 5% in late morning trade on Thursday. The premium of Brent crude over WTI rose to its highest since May for a second day in a row on Thursday. A higher Brent premium over WTI means it is more economic for energy firms to send vessels to the US to pick up crude for export. But analysts noted the cost of chartering tankers has soared in recent months, resulting in a decline in US crude exports from record highs seen earlier this year. Weekly US crude exports were just 3.3 million barrels per day during the week ended September 18, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, down from a weekly record high of 6.4 million bpd in April when the cost to charter a ship was much lower.
Oil Market Rallies as Houthi Missiles Target Saudi Arabia - The oil market retraced its previous losses on Thursday after posting an inside trading day on Wednesday as talks between the U.S. and Iran showed little sign of progress. The market was well supported by the news that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia on Thursday. Saudi Arabia intercepted six missiles fired at the southern province of Taif and Yanbu areas on the Red Sea. The crude market posted a low of $91.23 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and rallied higher. The market retraced more 62% of its move from a high of $101.69 to a low of $88.67 as it rallied to a high of $96.78 by mid-day. The market retraced some of its gains on reports stating that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased path out of the war. The November WTI contract settled up $2.45 at $94.61 and the Brent contract settled up $3.52 at $106.60. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.61 cents at $4.7303 and the RB market settling down 2.24 cents at $3.5646. According to executives, traders and analysts, a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports would initially cut domestic prices for the fuel, but the effect is likely to be short-lived. Analysts said retail diesel prices would fall to $4.70/gallon within 15 days from record highs above $6.50/gallon. The export moratorium would push excess supplies toward the East Coast and the West Coast, which sorely need the fuel. Meanwhile, distillate fuel stockpiles, now at their lowest-ever seasonal level, would be replenished. JPMorgan projects that they would reach the five-year average within two weeks and would reach 140 million barrels after 30 days, a level last seen in 2021. However, the economics would quickly make storage less attractive and squeeze profits, likely pushing refiners to process fewer barrels of crude oil and make less fuel of all kinds. According to Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer of The Tank Tiger, it would likely take only four to eight weeks for storage to fill on the Gulf Coast. Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats estimate it will take even less time, saying storage in the region would fill up within just three weeks before refineries slashed production. The amount of distillate fuel stored in Gulf Coast tanks is already above normal seasonal levels. A U.S. official said about 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday carrying the highest daily volume of crude oil since early July. The official said about 40 of those vessels coordinated with the U.S. military for protection. A total of about 22 million barrels of oil exited the maritime chokepoint. Preliminary shipping data showed that ten commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, up from seven a day earlier and below the 10-day moving average of about 17. In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 27 commodity vessels on Wednesday transited the waterway, up from 24 a day earlier and compared with an average of 26 ships using the strait in the past 10 days.
Oil Prices Fall on Hopes for US-Iran Truce - Oil prices edged lower on Friday as markets weighed conflicting factors, including the possibility of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran and ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Brent crude fell 74 cents, or 0.69%, to $105.85 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 81 cents, or 0.86%, to $93.80 a barrel. Trading got off to a subdued start, in contrast to a volatile week. Oil prices rose on Thursday to their highest level in a week, with Brent settling 3.4% higher and WTI gaining 2.7%. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path toward ending the war, including Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran, according to sources familiar with the talks this week. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that the United States should decide when the war between the two countries will end. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said Saudi Arabia had intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis, thwarting attacks targeting Taif Governorate and Yanbu on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia is working to increase the amount of crude oil pumped through the East-West pipeline, which runs to the Saudi export hub of Yanbu on the Red Sea. However, industry sources, satellite imagery and shipping data indicate that crude tanker loading operations have not yet resumed.
Oil Prices Retreat From 1-Week Highs on US-Iran Talks (DTN) -- Oil prices slid Friday morning on revived negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in New York. The talks marked the first time diplomats from Tehran and Washington met directly since June, sparking market optimism about a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. By 9:15 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for November delivery was down $1.66 to trade near $104.94 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $1.89 to $92.72 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery edged lower by $0.0152 to $4.7151 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.1554 to $3.4092 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.305 points to 100.715 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S.-Iranian negotiations have this week reportedly entered their exploratory phase after a three-month-long period of exchanging messages via Pakistani mediators that followed the expiry of a de jure 60-day ceasefire. The White House, meanwhile, denied rumors that the administration was considering a temporary ban on diesel exports. Fears of an export ban, sparked by comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday, propelled oil prices to their highest in a week and led to a rally in European gasoil futures. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco announced that it had restarted its East-West pipeline at reduced flow rates following a two-week shutdown. Ship tracking data showed that loading operations at the Red Sea port of Yanbu were still idle. The country has, in response to the loss of its central workaround to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, all but maximized oil shuttling operations in the Gulf of Oman. Increased ship-to-ship transfers, the quick restoration of some pipeline flows, and revived truce hopes have put most oil futures on track for weekly declines. As of Friday morning, WTI's front-month contract was down 7.5% on the week, and ULSD was eyeing a more than 8% week-on-week drop. Only Brent futures held on to earlier gains this week, currently up less than 1%.
Oil Tumbles as US and Iran Sketch Path to Reopen Strait of Hormuz — - Crude prices slid about 2% on Friday as Washington and Tehran moved toward a possible truce that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, while traders weighed a potential US ban on diesel exports and fresh Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia. Brent futures settled down $2.28, or 2.1%, at $104.32 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate fell $2.20, or 2.3%, to $92.41. For the week, Brent eked out a gain of less than 1% while WTI dropped roughly 8%. The market's retreat came as negotiators in New York explored a phased exit from the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb 28. Under the framework being discussed, Tehran would resume normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade of the Islamic Republic, according to people familiar with the talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier in the week that Tehran had briefed American mediators on a seven-day plan. If specific conditions in that proposal are met, the strait would reopen after the seven-day period and both sides would restart negotiations aimed at a final agreement. A senior Iranian official cautioned, however, that the country would show no flexibility on its nuclear program even if the United States accepts the strait proposal, which includes lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. A US official described the discussions as "positive and constructive," adding that Washington was in no rush because it held a favorable position. Nearly 40 million barrels of oil have moved through the strait under American escort in the past 48 hours, the official said. The prospect of de-escalation has begun to chip away at the geopolitical premium that has propped up crude prices for months. Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said the complex was "again coming under pressure" as the market assessed both the possibility of a US diesel export ban and diplomatic progress toward reopening the waterway. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said expectations of diplomacy were cushioning the impact of renewed military activity in the Middle East. "Despite the attacks, crude is trading modestly lower," he noted. The widening spread between Brent and WTI underscored the shifting landscape. The premium of the global benchmark over its American counterpart climbed to its highest since May for a third straight session, while US gasoline futures fell about 4%. The move signals that traders expect US refiners to process less crude if diesel output cannot be exported. Washington's talk of restricting diesel shipments has added another layer of uncertainty. A ban would trap refined product at home, potentially forcing refiners to cut runs and reducing domestic crude demand, which would further depress WTI relative to Brent. Even as diplomatic signals improved, the physical security of Middle East supply remained fragile. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs were set to discuss assistance for Riyadh as it confronts attacks from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement. The Houthis have repeatedly fired into Saudi territory and struck the Saudi-backed government in Yemen, disrupting flows from the world's largest energy exporter. Saudi forces intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by the group on Thursday, preventing attacks on the southern Taif region and the Red Sea coastal area of Yanbu, according to the Saudi-led coalition. Saudi Arabia has increased crude transport volumes on its east-west pipeline, which connects to the Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea, according to industry sources, satellite imagery and shipping data. Tanker loadings at Yanbu, however, have not yet resumed. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting Sep 20, roughly in line with the previous week. Before the war, about 20% of the world's oil supply moved through the strait.
Two hurt, cargo ship ablaze in Strait of Hormuz attack, watchdog says | The Times of Israel -A cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile, leaving it on fire and adrift and causing two casualties, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center says. UKMTO says all crew have been evacuated from the vessel, citing a report it received. Authorities are investigating, and there are no reports of any environmental impact, the monitor says.
One Indian Crewmember Reported Killed After Ship Comes Under Attack in the Strait of Hormuz - At least one Indian seafarer was killed when a commercial ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, AFP has reported, citing statements from Oman and India. Oman’s Maritime Security Center said in a post on X that the Cape Dao, a bulk carrier flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda, was struck about 2.5 nautical miles off the coast of the Musandam Governorate, Oman’s exclave on the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in “a fire breaking out in the engine room and the death of one of its crew members.” The Omani security center said that Oman’s navy helped evacuate 27 crew members. India’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that “one Indian national tragically lost his life” in the incident and strongly condemned the attack.“The targeting of commercial shipping, seafarers and civilian infrastructure in the region must end, and free and unimpeded navigation and commerce through the international waterways in the region must be restored at the earliest,” the Indian Foreign Ministry said.Multiple Indian civilian mariners have been killed in the region since the US and Israel started the Iran war on February 28, including three who were killed by a June US bombing of a commercial ship that the US military claimed was attempting to run the US blockade of Iranian ports.Iran is suspected of being behind the Wednesday attack on the Cape Dao, but it hasn’t taken credit. Multiple commercial ships have come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz this week, and the US has also been silent about the attacks, appearing to back down on its previous policy of bombing Iranian tankers in response to strikes on commercial shipping.
Saudi Airstrikes Hit Yemen After Ansar Allah Attack on Riyadh - - Saudi airstrikes continued to pound parts of Yemen on Sunday, a day after Ansar Allah launched a missile and drone attack targeting the Saudi capital of Riyadh for the first time since the war was reignited by Saudi airstrikes targeting the Sanaa International Airport back in July. Dr. Anis al-Asbahi, spokesman for the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government, said that Saudi strikes on Sunday hit communications towers in the northern al-Jawf province, killing four civilian workers and injuring three others. The attack was also reported by Yemen’s SABA news agency. Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said that the YAF recorded 28 Saudi airstrikes over the previous 24-hour period. He said the strikes targeted the provinces of “Taiz, al-Jawf, and Marib, bringing the total number of airstrikes since the start of the Saudi escalation against our country and people to 760.”Saree’s statement also said that the airstrikes were carried out by US-made F-15 fighter jets and European-made Typhoon aircraft. The US has been supporting the Saudi bombing campaign by providing targeting and intelligence support, and reportedly has up to 200 military advisors in Saudi Arabia serving in that role.The US put out a warning on Saturday that the war in Yemen could “escalate rapidly,” and Trump cut short a visit to Camp David, abruptly returning to the White House, raising speculation that he was preparing for strikes on Yemen or Iran.While there have been signs that the US may escalate its role and launch direct attacks in Yemen, President Trump signaled on Sunday that the US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 remains in effect. Fox News reporter Trey Yingst said that he spoke with Trump on Sunday morning and that the president said the US “is in constant communication with the Houthis and that they have agreed not to fight the United States.”Any US escalation in Yemen will be met with an escalation from Ansar Allah and could result in the total closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would exacerbate the global economic crisis caused by the US war against Iran. At the moment, Ansar Allah maintains that the blockade it’s enforcing applies only to Saudi shipping.
Ansar Allah Reports 'Major Escalation' of Saudi Airstrikes and Missile Attacks on Yemen - News From Antiwar.com - Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, said on Monday that its forces recorded a “major escalation” of Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks on Yemen as it continues to make gains against Saudi-backed forces on the ground.“In a major escalation, the criminal Saudi enemy targeted the governorates of al-Jawf, Taiz, Saada, and Marib with 157 airstrikes and missile attacks,” Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, wrote on Telegram. “These attacks were carried out using F-15 and Typhoon warplanes launched from Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases, and missiles were launched from Najran and Jizan,” Saree wrote.He added that the “total number of airstrikes and missile attacks since the beginning of the escalation has now reached 917” and added that the “major aggression will not go unanswered, God willing.”The Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government said that at least one civilian was killed by Saudi strikes in Taiz, and a video that surfaced online shows a blast at a crowded market in the Dhubab district of Taiz. Ansar Allah officials claim the blast was a Saudi strike, while sources from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government claim it was a Houthi missile. Later on Monday, Yemeni media reported that a Saudi strike on the Red Sea port city of Mocha, recently captured by Ansar Allah, killed at least six civilians, including two children. Graphic footage from Al-Masirah TV shows the aftermath of the strike and the casualties. Ground fighting continues, and Reuters reported on Monday that Ansar Allah is now fighting to seize the strategic Kahboub Mountains, in the provinces of Taiz and Lahij, which separate the Red Sea coast from the area of Yemen controlled by Saudi-backed forces. Since September 3, Ansar Allah has made rapid gains on the ground, taking full control of the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Turkey, Pakistan vow to support Saudi Arabia after Houthis strike Riyadh fuel depot -- A Houthi ballistic missile struck an Aramco jet-fuel depot near Riyadh’s international airport, a major escalation in the war between Yemen’s Iran-backed militants and Saudi Arabia. On today’s episode of Iran: the Latest, Venetia Rainey speaks to Bahraini analyst Ahmed Khuzaie about Turkey and Pakistan’s vows of military support for Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Defence Pact after Donald Trump refused to provide US assistance. They also discuss the dilemma for Egypt as the rise of Iranian-backed Islamist factions in Sudan’s civil war threatens to pile additional pressure on the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Plus, what Gulf leaders at the UN General Assembly want from Trump as he weighs whether to restart the war, and new satellite images show Iran rapidly rebuilding and fortifying a nuclear-linked facility at Parchin.
UK To Ramp Up Support for Saudi War in Yemen by Refueling Saudi Fighter Jets - The British government has announced that it will increase support for Saudi Arabia’s war with Ansar Allah in Yemen by refueling Saudi fighter jets, as the conflict continues to escalate. According to Middle East Eye, British Defense Minister Luke Pollard said that the UK would deploy a refueling plane, a Voyager, from a base in Cyprus to provide “air-to-air refueling” for Saudi warplanes to support “defensive” activity. The UK is framing the support as “defensive” since Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has been launching significant missile and drone attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure, but Riyadh reignited the war in Yemen by bombing the Sanaa International Airport on July 13.The BBC reported that the support is for a limited time and could only last “weeks,” though it remains unclear how long the war will last. The news comes after British Prime Minister Andy Burnham approved sending military advisors to Saudi Arabia early this month, and according to the MEE report, British military personnel and air defense equipment has been deployed to the kingdom in recent weeks.The US is also supporting the Saudi war by using military advisors, who are providing intelligence and targeting support. So far, the US has declined Saudi requests to directly enter the war, though President Trump was reportedly poised to launch strikes in Yemen over the weekend before reversing the plan. Ansar Allah continues to make advances on the ground in Yemen, and Saudi airstrikes have escalated in recent days. Saudi Arabia was notorious for bombing civilian targets during its previous war against Ansar Allah, and Yemeni media reported on Monday night that a Saudi strike in Mocha killed six civilians, including two children.
Yemeni Media Reports Major Ansar Allah Attack on Southern Saudi Arabia - -Yemen’s SABA news agency reported on Wednesday that Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, launched a major attack on southern Saudi Arabia that caused dozens of casualties.An Ansar Allah military source claimed to the outlet that an attack hit military camps and weapons depots in al-Tawal, a district in Saudi Arabia’s southwestern Jazan Province that borders Yemen.The source further claimed that there were “dozens of dead and wounded” as a result of the attack and that the casualties included Saudi troops, Sudanese mercenaries, and Yemeni fighters aligned with Saudi Arabia.So far, Ansar Allah hasn’t released an official statement on the attack, and it hasn’t been confirmed by the Saudi side. Earlier on Wednesday, Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree said that dozens of Saudi airstrikes hit Yemen over the previous 24 hours.“Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 52 airstrikes and missile attacks using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases. The missile attacks originated from Jazan,” Saree wrote on Telegram. “These attacks targeted the governorates of Hodeidah, Taiz, Al-Bayda, Marib, and Saada, resulting in martyrs and wounded, including women and children, and causing widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure, including communication networks, schools, bridges, roads, and more,” Saree added.Saudi airstrikes have been causing an increasing number of civilian casualties, and the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led government reported on Wednesday that 10 civilians were killed and Saudi strikes injured 14 over a 24-hour period.Saudi Arabia’s airstrikes are supported by US intelligence, and the UK announced this week that it will start refueling Saudi fighter jets. The US has so far refrained from launching direct airstrikes in Yemen, which Ansar Allah has warned would lead to a significant response, including the closing of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US commercial shipping.
Yemen's Ansar Allah Announces Another Wave of Attacks on Saudi Arabia Targeting Riyadh and Yanbu - -Ansar Allah announced on Thursday that its forces launched another wave of missile and drone attacks targeting the Saudi capital of Riyadh and oil infrastructure in Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast as the war continues to escalate.Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement that Yemeni forces carried out “successful operations” targeting Riyadh and Yanbu. At this point, the extent of the damage is unclear, and Saudi Arabia has only said that its forces shot down six ballistic missiles fired from Yemen, including some that were fired at Yanbu.Saree said that the attacks were launched in response to Saudi strikes on Yemeni territory, which have been killing an increasing number of civilians. Map: Military situation in Yemen on 9/24/2026 (SouthFront.press) Saree wrote on Telegram that since the recent escalations in Yemen, there have been “1018 airstrikes and missile attacks using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases, and missile attacks from Najran and Jizan targeting the governorates of Ma’rib and Sa’dah, Taiz, Al-Jawf, and Al-Bayda, leaving martyrs and wounded, including women and children, and causing damage to civilian infrastructure.”Earlier in the day, Saree claimed that an Ansar Allah missile attack launched the night before that targeted the al-Tuwal area of Jizan, southern Saudi Arabia, and resulted in the “death and injury of hundreds of Saudi enemy reinforcement troops, including Yemenis and Sudanese, along with dozens of Saudi enemy personnel and officers.” So far, the casualties have not been confirmed by the Saudi side.Saree said that Ansar Allah would continue “to enforce the equation of ‘a siege for a siege’ and ‘an escalation for an escalation,’ targeting the Saudi enemy’s troop buildups until the aggression ceases and the siege on our beloved country is lifted.”Ansar Allah first imposed a blockade on Saudi shipping and began targeting Saudi oil infrastructure following the July 13 Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport, which were meant to stop a plane flying from Iran as enforcement of a long-standing blockade that was eased by a 2022 ceasefire deal but never fully lifted. President Trump reportedly gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the green light to escalate in Yemen before the July 13 strikes, and the US is providing targeting and intelligence support for the Saudi bombing campaign but has so far refrained from launching direct strikes against Ansar Allah, as a US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 still remains in effect.
Bahrain rejects permit, fee regime for Strait of Hormuz passage - Bahrain on Friday rejected any permit or fee system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz saying transit through the international waterway cannot be suspended or subjected to unilateral conditions. Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani said the right of transit through the strait is guaranteed under international law for vessels of all states. “The kingdom categorically rejects any permit or fee regime imposed on passage,” Al Zayani told the 81st UN General Assembly in New York. He also rejected using international waterways as instruments of pressure or economic coercion, warning that accepting restrictions in Hormuz could set a precedent for other strategic waterways. Al Zayani said alternative shipping routes could not replace the right of passage through the strait or justify restrictions on navigation. Turning to regional tensions, he accused Iran of carrying out nearly 7,000 attacks against Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan, involving 1,700 ballistic missiles, 80 cruise missiles and 5,220 drones. He said 2,000 cargo vessels and tankers carrying 20,000 seafarers had also been detained, while 72 commercial vessels were targeted, killing 22 seafarers. The foreign minister said attacks on commercial vessels and restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz had repercussions far beyond the Gulf, including higher energy, food, shipping and insurance costs, and disruptions to global supply chains. He condemned attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on civilian sites and Islamic holy sites in Saudi Arabia, as well as threats to navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea. Al Zayani said security in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb formed part of a single maritime security system and warned that threats to one waterway could affect navigation in others.
In Iran, talk of whether to build a nuclear bomb bursts into the open - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told world leaders at the United Nations this week that Iran would neither shelve its nuclear program nor build nuclear weapons, repeating Tehran’s usual refrain. Back home however, there is a growing public debate about whether Tehran should aim to get the bomb. Large parts of Iran’s nuclear program remain severely damaged after last year’s U.S. and Israeli attacks. Before those strikes, experts and officials believed Iran could build a nuclear weapon within months. It had highly enriched uranium, technical know-how and other required facilities. As the current conflict with the U.S. continues, Iranian officials and lawmakers are openly discussing questions that were largely discussed behind closed doors previously: whether Iran should quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which commits it to peaceful use of nuclear energy, and whether building the bomb is worth the risk. This week, an Iranian lawmaker introduced a fast-track bill into parliament which calls for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, a step only taken by North Korea before it built nuclear weapons. In August, Mohsen Rezaie, the powerful head of the National Security Council, said that if Iran’s adherence to the NPT “does not prevent an attack on the country, then why shouldn’t we pursue an atomic bomb?” In New York this week, Iranian officials said Tehran’s nuclear doctrine remains unaltered for now but warned that could change, according to people present. Whereas Iranian spokespeople in the past would have insisted that Iran’s nuclear program was purely for peaceful purposes, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman last week said it was logical for officials to debate the country’s nuclear stance after the country had been repeatedly attacked. Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that if the war drags on, the current debate around Iran’s nuclear stance could turn into a new strategy. “What is new is not a broad movement to abandon the nuclear program altogether, for which there remains very little prominent public support, but the normalization of ideas once kept at the margins: leaving the NPT, abandoning remaining nuclear restraints and even openly discussing weaponization as a form of deterrence,” he said. President Trump said the U.S. launched this year’s attacks to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. After the June 2025 strikes, he said Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated, although Tehran retained a large stockpile of highly enriched material and underground sites where it could revive work. Iran’s deliberations over its nuclear doctrine surfaced after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks, when Israel hammered Iran-linked regional groups. That undercut Tehran’s first line of deterrence: surrounding Israel with a ring of heavily armed Tehran-backed groups. Yet that was a restrained debate, locked into hypotheticals about how Iran might react if the country’s security was further threatened. Iran’s formal stance remained governed by the fatwa that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in February, issued 20 years ago banning production of weapons of mass destruction. In fact, Iran worked on nuclear weapons know-how at least through 2003, according to the U.N. atomic agency. In recent years, it expanded its nuclear program, producing enough 60% enriched material to fuel around 11 nuclear weapons. Khamenei held back from trying to build a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, knowing that doing so could spark a massive U.S. and Israeli military response. The wisdom of that so-called nuclear threshold policy lies at the core of the debate over what Iran should do. Critics say that approach proved the worst of both worlds. Instead of deterring Iran’s enemies, it encouraged the U.S. and Israel to carry out attacks to close Iran’s path to a bomb.
Ukrainian drones and missiles target Moscow, oil refinery in deadly attack: Officials -- Plumes of smoke rose over Moscow on Sunday morning after a Ukrainian drone and missile attack on the city in which a major oil refinery was among the targets, according to the Russian capital's mayor. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said in posts to Telegram that 450 Ukrainian drones were shot down while heading toward the capital on Saturday night into Sunday morning, describing the latest attack as "unprecedented." "Several drones did reach the territory of the Moscow Oil Refinery, and one hit a residential building. There were no fatalities," Sobyanin wrote, suggesting that the attack was "clearly planned to disrupt" the ongoing Russian parliamentary elections, voting in which is due to end on Sunday. The Gazprom-MNPZ refinery sits southeast of Moscow city and is operated by the state-run energy giant Gazprom. The facility has a reported processing capacity of around 11 million tons of oil per year, making it one of the country's largest such sites. Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Counter-Disinformation Center operating as part of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said in a post to Telegram that a "major incident is occurring" at the refinery, which he said "supplies fuel to their capital city." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post to Telegram that Kyiv's long-range strikes "had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night," reporting a hit on "one of Russia’s key oil industry facilities" which he said contributes "billions of dollars" to Russia's "war machine." "Moscow must end its brutal war and choose peace instead of building layered rings of air defense at the expense of other regions," Zelenskyy wrote. The Ukrainian president said that a variety of long-range munitions were used in the strikes. Among them, Zelenskyy said, were the Ukrainian-made Flamingo cruise missile and the Pelican ballistic missile -- seemingly the first time the latter has been used to attack Russia. Ukrainian company Fire Point, which makes both munitions as well as other long-range drones and missiles, said in a post to Telegram that its FP-1 drones were used in the strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery. The governor of the Moscow region, Andrey Vorobyov, reported in a post to Telegram that one person was killed and five others injured when a drone hit an apartment block in Sofino, to the southwest of Moscow city. Another person was killed in the Orekhovo-Zuevsky area to the east of the capital, Vorobyov said, with one person also injured in the southern Leninsky district. A total of 20 people were injured in the attacks, Vorobyov said. Vorobyov also reported a fire at an apartment building in the Ramensky district to the southwest of the capital -- which prompted an evacuation of 400 people and damage to 20 cars -- a fire at a warehouse complex in Sofino and a "serious fire" at an apartment building in Kotelniki, southeast of Moscow. All four of Moscow's international airports -- Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky and Sheremetyevo -- were put under temporary flight restrictions overnight, according to Rosaviatsiya, Russia's federal air transport agency. The restrictions were lifted on Sunday morning. Russia's Defense Ministry said it shot down 1,110 Ukrainian drones overnight -- the largest overnight figure ever reported by the ministry, according to ABC News analysis of its Telegram statements. Ukraine's air force, meanwhile, said Russia launched 138 drones into the country overnight, of which 101 were intercepted or otherwise suppressed. Around half of the drones launched were jet-powered, the air force said. Impacts were reported in 17 locations, the air force added. Ukraine's State Emergency Service said that three people -- among them two children -- were killed in a Russian attack on the Kyiv region.
Ukraine Launches Over 1,000 Drones Into Russia as Part of 'Largest Attack' on Moscow - Ukraine launched a massive drone attack against Russia on Sunday, launching more than 1,000 drones into Russian territory and conducting what the mayor of Moscow called the “largest attack” targeting the Russian capital of the war.Russia’s Defense Ministry said that overnight, its forces intercepted 1,110 Ukrainian drones over about 20 Russian regions and the Black Sea. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin put the number higher, saying 1,600 drones were launched into Russia, including 450 that were headed toward Moscow. “The largest enemy drone attack on Moscow has been repelled,” Sobyanin wrote on Telegram. “Since yesterday, over 1,600 UAVs have been repelled at all front lines. Of these, 450 were approaching Moscow.”The mayor added that residential buildings were damaged and the Moscow Refinery was hit, as Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy infrastructure despite President Trump’s calls for Ukraine to stop such attacks. Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks are known to be supported by US intelligence, so if Trump really wanted the strikes to end, he would need to cut off such support. Trump had also recently claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed not to target each other’s energy sites, but it was quickly apparent that was not true. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukraine’s “long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night” and that one of “Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit.”Sobyanin said there were no casualties in the city, but Andrey Vorobyov, the governor of the surrounding Moscow Oblast, said three people were killed in the Moscow region and at least 20, including three children, were wounded. Russian officials also alleged that two civilians were killed by a Ukrainian drone attack that hit a bus in the Russian-controlled side of Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast. The heavy Ukrainian attacks came as elections were being held in Russia and Russian-controlled territories. Russian missiles and drones have also continued to pound Ukraine, and Ukrainian media reported that a woman and her two children were killed by attacks in the Kyiv Oblast on Saturday. Ukrainian officials said that a Russian drone hit a monastery that’s near the frontline in Kherson and that one clergy member was killed.According to the news service of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), a Russian drone hit the St. Gregory Bizyukov Monastery in the village of Chervonyi Mayak on Saturday, killing the “oldest monk”, identified as Monk Moses, and wounding four others. So far, Russia hasn’t responded to the allegation that its forces hit a monastery.The UOC has been the target of a Zelensky government crackdown, which has involved kicking its clergy out of some churches and monasteries, including the historic Pechersk Lavra in Kyiv, in favor of the Ukrainian-state-backed Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU). The UOC has been targeted, and its priests have been imprisoned due to its historic links to Russia, though the UOC declared its full independence from the Moscow Patriarchate following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which it strongly denounced.
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