Focus on Fracking

natural gas price at a 17 month low after earliest 100 billion cubic feet addition to storage on record; US commercial oil supplies at a 34 month high; gasoline production at a ten month high; distillates exports at a nine month high

US natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished lower for the sixth time in seven weeks after a record breaking injection of natural gas into storage for this time of year…after rising 1.0% to $2.674 per mmBTU last week on a shift in the forecasts towards somewhat cooler weather, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery moved higher as markets opened on Monday as traders grappled with ongoing Middle East war uncertainty amid mostly static domestic fundamentals, then struggled to hold its early short-covering gains as traders looked past a brief Northeast cooldown to broader mild spring weather, and held on to settle 1.5 cents higher at $2.689 per mmBTU, supported by a drop in output over the past couple of weeks, and on forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May than was previously expected….natural gas prices started 0.4 cents lower Tuesday, but rose modestly heading into midday trading, as a drop in production and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East overshadowed a bearish weather forecast, and settled 0.8 cents higher at 2.697 per mmBTU, as traders assessed the uncertainty of the trajectory of potential talks between the U.S. and Iran to extend a temporary ceasefire, and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s senate confirmation hearing…May natural gas opened 4.3 cents higher on Wednesday, buoyed by ongoing geopolitical tensions, and by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and by seasonal demand, and held on to part of that gain to close 2.5 cents higher at $2.722 per mmBTU, as forecasts indicated a late April cooldown in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, sustaining seasonal heating demand….natural gas prices opened 4.9 lower on Thursday and were pushed down from there by a larger than expected triple digit injection of natural gas into storage, and settled 10.8 cents lower at $2.614 per mmBTU on the bigger-than-expected build in stockpiles, and on expectations that energy firms would keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in the coming weeks….natural gas futures fell further Friday morning, as a record-breaking weekly storage build and a slightly warmer shift in the medium-term weather outlook combined to erase the gains of earlier in the week, and settled the session 9.1 cents lower at $2.523 per mmBTU, its lowest close since October 29, 2024, as mild weather and swelling supplies pressured the May NYMEX contract in its final days as the prompt month, leaving its price down 5.6% for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 17th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 103 billion cubic feet to 2,063 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, after a 10 billion cubic foot downward revision to gas stores for the 33-week period from August 29, 2025 to April 10th, 2026, which left our natural gas supplies 142 billion cubic feet, or 7.4% above the 1,921 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on April 17th of last year, and 137 billion cubic feet, or 7.1% above the five-year average of 1,926 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 17th of April over the most recent five years….the 103 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was the earliest triple digit injection into storage in the modern era, and was more than the 94 billion cubic foot injection into storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and it was much more than the 77 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, as well as much more than the average 64 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early April week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 17th indicated that even after a drop in our oil exports and an increase in our oil imports, we again pulled oil out of our stored crude supplies for the second time in nine weeks, and for 22nd time in forty-seven weeks, largely due to a big war related withdrawal from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a decrease in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 787,000 barrels per day to 6,078,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 1,033,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 427,000 barrels per day to 4,798,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,280,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 17th, an average of 1,214,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 4,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 600,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 11,000 barrels per day lower at 13,585,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,465,000 barrels per day during the April 17th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,987,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 17th, an average of 55,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 316,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending April 17th averaged a rounded 206,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +206,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….However, since 1,062,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 856,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore useless.... But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 316,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 275,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 591,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fourth consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR, following a nearly continuous string of weekly additions to the SPR from September 2023 to February 2026, which had followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,037,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.4% less than the 6,061,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 11,000 barrels per day lower at 13,585,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 4,000 barrels per day lower at 13,166,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 7,000 barrels per day lower at 419,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.7% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 89.1% of their capacity while processing those 15,987,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 10th, down from 89.6% the prior week, with the recent vacillation in the refinery utilization rate likely due to temporary shutdowns for seasonal maintenance, as refineries are reconfigured to produce summer blends of fuel at this time of year….the 15,987,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was still 0.6% more than the 15,889,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending April 18th of 2025, but 3.6% less than the 16,583,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 19th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 90.1%, which was closer to the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was significantly higher, increasing by 315,000 barrels per day to a ten month high of 10,076,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 10th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 392,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was virtually unchanged from the 10,073,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending April 11th of last year, but 3.0% more than the gasoline production of 9,781,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending April 19th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 4,953,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 169,000 during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 7.1% more than the 4,626,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 18th of 2025, but 2.2% less than the 5,064,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending April 19th, 2019....

Even after this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the tenth week in a row, decreasing by 4,570,000 barrels to 228,374,000 barrels during the week ending April 17th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 6,328,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 33,000 barrels per day to 9,055,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 271,000 barrels per day to 587,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 15,000 barrels per day to 915 ,000 barrels per day… After forty-one gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were 0.5% lower than last April 18th’s gasoline inventories of 229,543,000 barrels, and about 0.5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

Likewise, even after this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the tenth time in twenty-three weeks, decreasing by 3,427,000 barrels to 108,132,000 barrels during the week ending April 17th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,122,000 barrels during the prior week… Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 192,000 barrels to 4,032,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 11,000 barrels per day to a nine-month high of 1,601,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose 72,000 barrels per day to 190,000 barrels per day... After 22 additions to distillates inventories over the past 41 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 1.2% higher than the 106,878,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 18th of 2025, but now about 8% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the increase in our oil imports and the big withdrawal from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 16th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time over the past year, increasing by 1,925,000 barrels over the week, from 463,804,000 barrels on April 10th to a 34 month high of 465,729,000 barrels on April 17th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 913,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 3% above the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and were about 36% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have been less extreme since, and as of this April 17th were 5.1% above the 443,104,000 barrels of oil in commercial storage on April 18th of 2025, and were 2.7% more than the 453,625,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on April 19th of 2024, and were 1.1% more than the 460,914,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on April 21st of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by one over the week ending April 24th, as the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by four, while the number of rigs targeting oil was down by three, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 24th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 17th) and this week’s (April 24th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 17th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 25th of April, 2025…

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OH Court Signals Dismissal of Lawsuit Against 2 Injection Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Last November, the Buckeye Environmental Network, backed by lawyers from the controversial Earthjustice, sued the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) over permitting two new shale wastewater injection wells in the Marietta area, claiming the standard used to evaluate the wells was old and out-of-date (see Antis Sue ODNR for Approving 2 Injection Wells Near Marietta, OH). The court involved, the Franklin County Court of Appeals, recently signaled it intends to dismiss Buckeye’s frivolous lawsuit.

Rover Pipeline Capacity Cut Due to Compressor Station Maintenance -- Marcellus Drilling News - Natural gas flows along the Rover Pipeline have been cut by 387 MMcf/d (out of 3.25 – 3.4 Bcf/d) due to maintenance at the Bulger Compressor Station, which is expected to last through the end of the month, curbing Appalachian takeaway capacity to the Midwest and Canada. Additionally, the MarkWest Harmon Creek gas processing plant in Washington County, PA, is reported to be offline due to this work

Cloverleaf school board greenlights lawsuit against Medina County auditor over unpaid Nexus pipeline interest - The Cloverleaf Local School District Board of Education this week approved a resolution authorizing legal action to recover more than $200,000 in disputed interest tied to property taxes paid by Nexus Gas Transmission. District officials say the interest stems from public utility tangible personal property taxes for tax years 2019-21 that went unpaid during litigation over the pipeline’s property valuation. Under Ohio law, the district argues, statutory interest should have been assessed and collected alongside those taxes. According to the resolution, the district’s legal counsel issued a June 2025 memorandum concluding that Medina County is obligated to assess and collect the interest. School officials say the Medina County Auditor’s Office has not taken action despite repeated requests over the past year, citing a need for guidance from the county prosecutor.The board authorized Treasurer Jim Hudson and Superintendent Daryl Kubilus Jr. to work with legal counsel to pursue all available remedies, including potential litigation, to compel collection of the funds. The resolution took effect immediately.Board President Jason Myers said the district turned to legal action only after months of unsuccessful attempts to resolve the issue.“As a Medina County taxpayer, it is incredibly frustrating and embarrassing that despite our many requests over the past 12 months to the county auditor, no action has been taken to bill and collect interest owed by Nexus to the Cloverleaf School District and other local entities,” Myers said in a statement to cleveland.com“Instead, we now find ourselves using taxpayer dollars to pursue legal action against our own county government—a situation that should never have been necessary and could have been avoided.”Kubilus said the delay contrasts with other actions involving district finances, pointing to a failed effort by the Medina County Budget Commission to reduce Cloverleaf’s budget.“When government moves faster to take away money from our schools than it does to collect money lawfully owed to us, that’s a problem,” Kubilus said. “And it’s one we’re not going to sit back and accept.”

City Council Weighs Ordinance to Facilitate Natural Gas for New Industrial Park-- The Oberlin Review - Local residents and environmental advocacy groups have responded with concern to a proposal to amend the language of the City’s Community Bill of Rights to allow Dominion Energy Ohio to build a gas connection to the proposed eco-industrial park. According to a March 12 memo from Oberlin’s Law Director Jon Clark, the pipeline would deliver natural gas to the park and enable it to receive financial support from the State of Ohio. The company has offered to build the pipeline without compensation from the City. Opposing the change are several local environmental groups. Students for Energy Justice has circulated an open letter urging Councilmembers to vote against changing the Community Bill of Rights’ language, which they perceive as weakening the City’s commitment to using alternative energy sources from natural gas. The Community Bill of Rights, officialized in the summer of 2013, bans local gas and oil extraction in the City. The measure was first tested when residents used it to advocate against the installation of a portion of the NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline — developed by Enbridge Inc. — within Oberlin. After being proposed in 2012, local environmental groups were embroiled in an attempt to prevent the pipeline’s construction until 2018. The City also challenged its construction in court until 2022. A portion of NEXUS Gas Transmission was ultimately built through Oberlin, according to former City Councilmember Kelley Singleton. For College third-year Savannah Wright, a member of SEJ, the presence of Dominion Energy Ohio, which is owned by Enbridge Inc., is a concern. “It seems sketchy to me that [the City] would be working with a subsidiary of [Enbridge Inc.] which has disrespected our Community Bill of Rights and our City’s self-determination in the past,” Wright said. Holly Swiglo, College third-year and co-leader of the Oberlin Climate Coalition, conceded the possibility that natural gas might be the only power source possible for the park, but expressed the opinion that Council had more investigation to do. “I’m still in the position that the City Council has not fully explored their options and fully considered renewable alternatives,” Swiglo said. “I would want them to vote to table or delay approving this ordinance, and then from there, really explore their options. If at that point they decide gas is inevitable, we’ll do with that what we will.” Experts on the City’s energy supply stated that there is a limited amount of alternative and sustainable energy sources to fuel the industrial park. At the April 6 Council meeting, Drew Skolnicki, director of Oberlin’s Municipal Light and Power System, told the Council that Oberlin’s electric grid could not be sure of receiving enough capacity from the City’s electricity supplier to fuel the park after 2029 — making it potentially impossible for the industrial park to operate on electrical power alone. Swiglo spoke of solar energy as another potential resource for the park and speculated that implementing solar energy power in other parts of Oberlin might add more capacity to the electric grid. According to City Manager Greg Holcomb, though, several renewable options for powering the park would face challenges. “The wind studies in this area show that wind isn’t an overly feasible energy option in this area,” Holcomb said. “The other issue is if we’re talking about putting it on the site, we only have 225 acres. If we did solar, the entire park would [have to] be nothing but solar fields to supply enough electricity for one building, and so there’s no tax revenue from that, or very little compared to having employees actually in a facility, bringing in income taxes.”

Non-Taxpaying Students Tell Oberlin to Block Gas Pipe to Biz Park - Marcellus Drilling News -- Oberlin, Ohio, officials are weighing a proposal to amend the city’s Community Bill of Rights to allow Dominion Energy Ohio to build a gas pipeline connection to a planned eco-industrial park, unlocking possible state support. Environmental groups and students at Oberlin College (neither of which pay any property or income taxes in Ohio, meaning they don't have a say) argue the change would weaken Oberlin’s anti-fossil-fuel commitments and revive ties to Enbridge, whose NEXUS pipeline previously "divided" the city. City officials and utility experts counter that renewables alone are not yet feasible, citing constraints on electric capacity and on wind, solar, and geothermal options.

Anti-Fracking CROWD Pressures Health Dept. to Deny “Leto” Air Permit –-- Marcellus Drilling News -- Olympus Energy (now owned by EQT) drills in the Greater Pittsburgh region, in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. In 2021, Olympus applied to build a new well pad in a rural part of Allegheny County, in West Deer Township. So-called Concerned Residents of West Deer (CROWD) got amped up to oppose the project. They succeeded when town supervisors rejected the Dionysus well pad (see West Deer Township Denies Olympus Permit to Build Shale Pad). CROWD then attempted to block a second well pad, the Leto pad, proposed by Olympus in another West Deer location (see West Deer Antis Try to Block 2nd Olympus Shale Well Pad). However, West Deer supervisors approved the Leto pad in June 2023, which set off the antis who threatened to sue (see West Deer Approves Olympus “Leto” Well Pad, Antis Pledge to Sue). They followed through with a lawsuit (see Anti-Fracking CROWD Lawsuit Against West Deer Gets Day in Court). The CROWD antis aren’t waiting for the results of that lawsuit. They’re also pressuring the Allegheny County Health Department to deny an air permit for the installation of a tri-ethylene glycol dehydrator at the site.

Coterra “Software Glitch” Releases Up to 700K Gal. of Freshwater -- Marcellus Drilling News - On April 5 (Easter Sunday), Coterra Energy reported that approximately 400,000 to 704,000 gallons of freshwater were released from an impoundment at the Brooks shale gas well pad in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. The release began at 8:02 a.m. when all six stanchion valves opened simultaneously, flowing by gravity into a pasture and reaching Meshoppen Creek before being discovered by a landowner’s relative that evening. Coterra attributed the incident to a corrupted software configuration file, which also prevented remote valve closure and disabled electronic notifications.

PA DEP Clueless About Final Quad O Plan to Reduce Methane from O&G -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) informed the House Environmental and Natural Resource Protection Committee that it remains uncertain about the final contents of its plan to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations, which is due to the EPA in January 2027. That is, they don’t have a clue. This cluelessness follows an extensive public comment period on a proposed plan for onerous regulations (developed during the dark Biden years) that aims to satisfy federal obligations primarily through general permits and references to federal standards.

Northeast PA Will Benefit from Transco NESE Project in NYC -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Williams has commenced construction of its Transco Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project, extending through northeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York (see Groundbreaking Ceremony for NESE Pipe in NYC an All-Star Event). This infrastructure upgrade, primarily involving new pipes and enhancements to existing compressor stations on the Transco pipeline system, aims to deliver more natural gas to New York City, which faces a supply shortage. Northeast Pennsylvania is strategically positioned to supply gas to this system, making the NESE project a benefit for the region by meeting New York City’s demand for natural gas.

Oil & Gas Turns to AI to Reduce Costs, Unlock New Shale Growth -- Marcellus Drilling News -- According to research by powerhouse consulting firm Deloitte, the U.S. shale industry has significantly reduced breakeven costs since 2015, driven by two waves of innovation in drilling and completion, and by financial discipline, making it more resilient to price volatility. A third, digital-led wave of innovation is emerging, focused on infrastructure activation, system optimization, and workforce amplification, aiming to further cut costs, enhance competitiveness, and bridge the breakeven gap with global counterparts. These efforts involve leveraging AI and analytics for exploration, integrating midstream infrastructure, optimizing value chains, implementing smart operations, and digitally transforming field-first tasks to improve efficiency and productivity.

New York's fracking ban faces federal lawsuit - New York’s ban on fracking would be struck down if a new federal lawsuit filed by property owners in Delaware County is successful. When Thomas Woodward and his son purchased 164 acres of land in Delaware County in 2011, they thought it would be a lucrative investment. They purchased the land and its mineral rights with an intent to lease it for the extraction of natural gas. The property sits on top of the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale — two areas with large underground reserves of natural gas. But the method for extracting that natural gas was on hold at the time while the state Department of Environmental Conservation reviewed the potential impact of the practice.

Mineral Owners File Lawsuit Alleging New York’s Bans On Oil and Gas Development Violate the Fifth Amendment’s Takings Clause -- On April 16, 2026, father and son Thomas and Madison Woodward filed a complaint in the federal court for the Northern District of New York against state officials, alleging that New York’s bans on oil and gas development by prohibiting certain methods used for natural gas extraction constitute an unconstitutional taking of property.[1] The Woodwards are represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation.[2] In 2011, the Woodwards purchased property in western New York.[3] Underlying this property is the Marcellus and Utica Shale formation, which extends across the border into Pennsylvania and through Ohio and West Virginia.[4] The complaint details that because of its low permeability, extracting natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations requires fracture stimulation—and the only commercially viable method of fracture simulation is high-pressure hydraulic fracturing.[5] New York, however, has banned high-pressure hydraulic fracturing, along with other fracturing techniques including CO₂ and gel propane fracturing.[6] As permitted by New York law, the Woodwards severed the surface and mineral estates of the property at issue.[7] In their complaint, the Woodwards claim that New York’s bans, codified by statute in 2020 and 2024, on high-pressure hydraulic fracturing and other fracturing techniques “has taken all economically beneficial use of the [their] severed mineral estate.”[8] For relief, the Woodwards are seeking a declaratory judgment that the development bans violate their Fifth Amendment rights, as well as a permanent injunction preventing state officials from enforcing it.[9] If ultimately successful, the lawsuit will significantly expand the area of potential development of the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. Vorys will continue to monitor the lawsuit and its outcome for its clients.

NARO “Joins” Legal Fight Against NY in Frack Ban Takings Case -- Marcellus Drilling News -- It’s fun to watch mainstream media begin to wake up to the lawsuit we told you about last week, filed by a father and son against New York State over its fracking ban (see New Lawsuit Brought Against NY Claims State Frack Ban a “Taking”). Mainstream and the anti-fossil fuel crowd are concerned about this lawsuit, viewing it as an existential threat that may (one day) overturn NY’s frack ban. The Pacific Legal Foundation (PLF) is representing the father/son free of charge in this lawsuit. The National Association of Royalty Owners (NARO) is joining the PLF in this action, signaling that royalty owners are getting involved in the effort to roll back frack bans.

CT Gov Signals Caving to Antis on Iroquois Compressor Station - Marcellus Drilling News - - The Iroquois Gas Transmission’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project will increase horsepower at three compression stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, to flow more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. The NY Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) approved the permits for the NY compressors with the condition that Iroquois pays a $1.5 million “contribution” (we call it a bribe) to the “Disadvantaged Community Benefit Program” (see NY DEC Approves Iroquois Pipe Expansion…With $1.5M “Contribution”). The only remaining holdup is a permit from the CT Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) for the Brookfield compressor, which has been on hold since June of last year (see Iroquois Pipe Expansion Close to Construction, Waiting on CT Permit). There are disturbing signs that Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont (Democrat) may be planning to block or fundamentally change the conditions of this permit based on his conversation with Brookfield officials who oppose ExC

Big Green Sues to Cancel Water Permit for Transco SESE Project - Marcellus Drilling News -- Earlier this year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the Williams Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (see FERC Approves Williams Transco SESE Pipeline Project for VA, NC). The $1.5 billion SESE project will add 1.6 million dekatherms per day (1.6 Bcf/d) of natural gas transportation capacity, equivalent to serving approximately 9.8 million homes. It will be built in the same general area as the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project, starting near Chatham, Virginia, and ending near Eden, North Carolina. Five environmental groups have sued to overturn a federal permit granted to Transco for the SESE project.

Golden Pass LNG Nears First Export as QatarEnergy Vessel Berths in Texas - Golden Pass LNG has confirmed the facility could begin loading LNG soon as a QatarEnergy vessel anchors at the Texas facility’s berth. At A Glance:

QatarEnergy vessel docks for initial cargo
Additional vessels queue off Gulf Coast
Feed gas averages 0.31 Bcf/d

LNG Tanker Arrives at Golden Pass LNG to Export Inaugural Cargo -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Golden Pass LNG terminal is a liquefied natural gas terminal and regasification facility in Sabine Pass (Port Arthur), Texas. It is among the largest LNG facilities in the world. It can accommodate up to 15.6 million metric tons (MT) of LNG per year, the equivalent of approximately 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d). QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-owned petroleum company, owns 70% of the Golden Pass LNG project. ExxonMobil owns the other 30%. Sabine Pass sees a tremendous amount of Marcellus/Utica molecules flowing to the region via a couple of pipelines, namely Transco (which flows M-U molecules). Hence, our interest in this major natural gas user’s start-up. The good news is that a ship has docked to load the very first official LNG export cargo.

Inaugural Cargo Departs Golden Pass LNG, Heading to Belgium -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Golden Pass LNG terminal is a liquefied natural gas terminal and regasification facility in Sabine Pass (Port Arthur), Texas. It is among the largest LNG facilities in the world. It can accommodate up to 15.6 million metric tons (MT) of LNG per year, the equivalent of approximately 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d). Earlier this week, MDN told you that the facility’s very first official cargo carrier had arrived to “fill ‘er up” (see LNG Tanker Arrives at Golden Pass LNG to Export Inaugural Cargo). The Al Qaiyyah LNG tanker, which arrived at the facility on Monday, is owned by QatarEnergy (which owns 70% of the facility). Yesterday, the Al Qaiyyah left with its load and is heading, according to S&P Global, to Belgium’s Zeebrugge LNG import terminal.

Golden Pass LNG Sends First Cargo as Texas Terminal Enters Global Market Golden Pass LNG has shipped an inaugural cargo from the developing Texas terminal, marking the 10th operational export facility in the United States. At A Glance:

Golden Pass boosts U.S. LNG export capacity
Train 1 adds 800 MMcf/d demand potential
Additional trains to drive future demand

First Golden Pass Cargo Signals Sharp Rise in U.S. LNG Flows - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers:

3 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are forecast to see a significant week/week rise as Golden Pass LNG moves to send out its first volumes by the end of the week. Total U.S. exports the week of April 20 are forecast to hit 3 million tons (Mt), more than 0.5 Mt higher than the previous week, according to Kpler. One of three vessels expected to load at Golden Pass by the end of the week arrived at the southeast Texas terminal Monday. Around half of U.S. exports during the week are forecast to head to Europe as Asian and South American demand continue to heat up global competition.
$1 billion: Woodside Energy Group’s local spend commitments for Louisiana LNG have surpassed $1 billion with its latest order agreement, according to the company. The Australian firm disclosed it has ordered four new tugs from C&C Marine and Repair, a Louisiana marine company, expected to be delivered in 2028. Woodside called the deal a milestone toward its strategy to focus a significant portion of its foundational procurement in the state. The cost of the 16.5 Mt/y first phase of the terminal is estimated at $17.5 billion.
19.5 Bcf/d: LNG feed gas nomination to U.S. terminals have stabilized at elevated levels over the past several days after hitting 20 Bcf/d over the weekend. Feed gas nominations are expected to average 19.5 Bcf/d over the next week, matching the previous 30-day average, according to Wood Mackenzie. A lack of prolonged maintenance events and persistent uptick from commissioning projects have kept gas flows to export projects near record levels since the beginning of the month. Average feed gas nominations have risen 3.6 Bcf/d above last year’s levels, according to pipeline data.
5 Tcf: Eni SpA has disclosed a major gas discovery in Indonesia as it works with equity partners to boost the country’s LNG exports and stabilize falling domestic production. Eni and partners drilled a well named Geliga-1 in Indonesia’s Kutei Basin, which has estimated resources of about 5 Tcf of gas and 300 million barrels of condensate. Combining Geliga with nearby discoveries could unlock new production and possibly a third development hub that would feed back into existing infrastructure like the Bontang LNG plant, according to the company. Bontang LNG has a nameplate capacity of 22.5 Mt/y but exported 2.55 Mt last year, according to Kpler data.

Oil, Natural Gas Prices Whipsaw Amid ‘Total Chaos’ in Middle East as Ceasefire Nears End - Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill Monday as a ceasefire between the United States and Iran neared its end and conflicting signals emerged over the next round of peace talks between the countries, pushing global natural gas prices higher.North America LNG export flows reached 19.29 million Dth on April 20, 2026, led by Sabine Pass, Plaquemines and Corpus Christi, signaling strong U.S. Gulf Coast export demand. At A Glance:
Peace talks shrouded in uncertainty
Ceasefire ends Tuesday
LNG vessels forced to backtrack

US natgas hits one-week high as output drops and LNG exports surge -US natural gas futures edged up to a fresh one-week high on Monday on a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May than previously expected. Gas futures were also supported by near-record gas flows to US liquefied natural gas export plants and a roughly six per cent jump in crude futures on fears the US-Iran ceasefire could collapse after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 1.5 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to settle at $2.689 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 8 for a second day in a row. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 51 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 60 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.83 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025). Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states held at 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, the same as in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.9 bcfd over the past 14 days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Monday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast seven per cent above normal levels during the week ended April 17, up from six per cent above normal during the week ended April 10. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 5. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.6 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February. A tanker arrived at the QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass facility under construction in Texas to collect the plant's inaugural export of the gas.

US natural gas prices edge higher as investors gauge Iran peace talks - U.S. natural gas future prices rose on Tuesday, as investors assessed murkiness around the trajectory of potential talks between the U.S. and Iran to extend a temporary ceasefire and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s senate confirmation hearing. By 14:39 ET (18:39 GMT), the U.S. Natural Gas futures had jumped by 0.45% to 2.70 MMBtu, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. Uncertainty surrounded fresh peace talks between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday ahead of the fast-approaching expiration of a temporary ceasefire deal, with President Donald Trump accusing Tehran of violating the halt to hostilities but suggesting that an agreement could still be reached. Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the halt to hostilities would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday. The two-week pause to the fighting is set to run out later this week, although the exact timing of the deadline remained unspecified. Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the truce would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday. Trump, who first announced the ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET (22:32 GMT), said in a social media post on Tuesday that Iran had broken the truce "numerous times," but did not elaborate further or provide more details. Yet he later told CNBC that he expects the U.S. to make a "great deal" with Iran, adding that the U.S. is in a "very strong negotiating position." With the clock ticking down, Pakistan, which has served as a frequent mediator between Washington and Tehran, has been moving to clear the path for renewed talks to resolve a conflict which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. The Associated Press, citing two regional officials, reported that the U.S. and Iran have signaled that they will be attending renewed negotiations in Islamabad. The U.S. has expressed confidence that the discussions in Pakistan will go ahead and a Pakistani source has claimed that Tehran will be joining, according to Reuters. But Trump has seemingly poured cold water on the potential for an extension to the ceasefire, telling CNBC that he does not want to renew the truce. Trump has been insisting that he wants an agreement that will stem ructions in financial markets, along with a promise from Iran not to pursue development of a nuclear weapon. Beyond the Iran war, investors are eyeing the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to become the next Fed Chair. The Fed’s independence from Trump – who has constantly demanded lower interest rates – will be of particular interest for Wall Street. Kevin Warsh, nominated to lead the Federal Reserve, said he will pursue broad changes in policymaking if confirmed to lead the central bank.

US natural gas futures hit one-week low on bigger stockpile build - US natural gas futures fell about four per cent to a one-week low on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected build in stockpiles and expectations that energy firms will keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. After rising for six days in a row, front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.2 cents, or 3.7 per cent, to $2.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since April 15. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 17. That was bigger than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 64 bcf for the period. Analysts had said they expected last week's build would be bigger than usual because mild weather kept heating demand low. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 54 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has eased to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.8 bcfd over the past 17 days to a preliminary 11-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Thursday. . Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 8. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.7 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants have risen to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February. The first tanker departed QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant in service and under construction in Texas with the facility's inaugural cargo on Wednesday.

US natgas drops 4% to 17-month low as storage rises on mild weather and weak demand U.S. natural gas futures slid about 4% on Friday to a 17-month low, on forecasts for the weather to remain mild and demand low through early May, allowing energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.1 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.523 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 29, 2024. For the week, the contract was down about 6% after gaining about 1% last week. In the cash market, some power and gas prices in Texas and California traded in negative territory this week as mild weather kept both heating and cooling use low, allowing ample amounts of hydro and other renewable sources of energy to meet more demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 4.1 bcfd over the past 18 days to a preliminary 11-week low of 108.1 bcfd on Friday, as low spot prices prompt energy firms like EQT, the second-biggest U.S. gas producer, to cut production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain slightly cooler than normal through May 9. Cool weather in late April and early May, however, does not cause much heating demand and also reduces the chances of early-season air conditioning use. Analysts said mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 8% above normal levels during the week ended April 24, up from 7% above normal during the week ended April 17. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.

How U.S. Natural Gas is Defying the Risk Premium of the Iran Conflict - While the rest of the world worries about war-driven LNG supply gaps, some pricing points in the United States are bottoming out, and others are trading in the red as producers pay buyers to take their natural gas. Chart of NGI’s Henry Hub daily spot and forward natural gas prices showing a sharp spike above $30/MMBtu in February 2026 followed by a decline below $3/MMBtu, with forward prices gradually rising toward $4/MMBtu by late 2026. At A Glance:
California solar crushes regional prices
Permian oil drilling floods NatGas
LNG turmoil barely dents U.S.

Deepwater gas project review downplays climate after endangerment repeal - --The Trump administration is taking public comment on a planned offshore liquefied natural gas export project that would ship out 8.4 million metric tons of gas annually from the Gulf of Mexico.The Department of Transportation released a draft environmental analysis Friday for ST LNG’s deepwater port project, proposed for approximately 10 miles off the coast of Matagorda, Texas — finding the undertaking isn’t likely to harm several threatened or endangered species. ST LNG is one of the first major energy projects to undergo an environmental review at the Maritime Administration since EPA in February repealed the 2009 finding that served as the agency’s foundational authority to regulate greenhouse gases. While the DOT review tallies how much carbon dioxide equivalent the project is expected to emit during its offshore construction and operation, it included that information in a section on air quality and noise. DOT said ST LNG will be required to comply with Clean Air Act requirements that “are applicable at the time of permit issuance,” noting that EPA finalized its rescission of the endangerment finding in February.

New Low Reached for Permian Natural Gas Prices - Low prices in the Permian are a routine story at this point, with the cash price of natural gas at Waha regularly plunging into negative territory since 2024. However, a new milestone of bearishness was set in trading for delivery on April 16, when Waha averaged minus $9.52/MMBtu according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). Waha has not seen a positive cash price since February 4 in the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern. The day’s low Waha prices has affected markets that get their gas from the Permian Basin. In particular, the Southern California benchmark SoCal Border traded at plus $0.645/MMBtu for delivery on April 16, which is a record low price for that point. As we reported in the NATGAS Permian Report on Monday, production receipts on El Paso have been a large driver of recent volatility in the daily production numbers for the basin. The pipeline has been conducting near-continuous maintenance on the North Mainline for years with varying amount of flow restrictions on the pipeline. Because the basin is so constrained, even small changes in capacity available can have an outsized effect on prices and the overall production numbers. However, outflows from the Permian on El Paso were strong on April 16, and the extremely low price in the West reflect that gas was widely available, suggesting that another pipeline was the culprit in the day’s record-breaking capacity constraint.

Permian Natural Gas Outflow Restrictions Remain | RBN Energy - Waha natural gas prices hit a record low in trading for delivery on April 16, recovering only slightly since that date. According to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) the Waha price bottomed out at minus $9.52/MMBtu on April 16, but averaged minus $6.83/MMBtu for the week ended April 20. The key factor leading to sustained negative prices has been lack of takeaway capacity for high gas production. Overall outflows were virtually unchanged last week, with lower outflows to the East offset by higher outflows to the West and Mexico. Although it has not been confirmed by Kinder Morgan, it is likely that Permian Highway is currently experiencing flow restrictions because of maintenance or an outage. Permian Highway is an intrastate pipeline and not required to report outages or maintenance. Previously, Kinder Morgan voluntarily disclosed these on the Pipeline’s EBB but stopped those postings last year. Based on available flow data on connecting pipelines, however, it appears some capacity on the pipeline went offline on April 16 and remains offline. Overall outflows to the East averaged 12.79 Bcf/d, down 0.71 Bcf/d week-on-week, as seen in the chart below. As Waha reached a record low last Thursday, California prices have also been especially weak because of low demand, ample supply and an outage at the Aliso Canyon storage facility in Southern California. The facility, which is the largest storage asset in the state, is closed for injections through the end of the month. The SoCal Border price averaged $0.71/MMBtu for the week ended April 20, including a record low on April 16.

Long Time Comin’ – Can Permian Gas Processing Capacity Keep Pace With Production Gains? | RBN Energy - A combination of new natural gas takeaway capacity out of the Permian, rising feedgas demand from LNG export terminals and stronger gas prices at the Waha Hub will support a steady increase in associated gas production in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through the rest of the 2020s. But while several gas processing plants are being planned in the Delaware and Midland basins, a critically important question looms: Will there be enough capacity to process the coming tsunami of incremental gas? In today’s RBN blog, we continue our examination of the fast-changing Permian gas market with a look at production growth vs. processing capacity. In Part 1 of this blog series, we said that while the Permian is now producing more than 22 Bcf/d of residue natural gas — one-fifth of total U.S. production — producers have had to deal with a persistent shortfall in gas takeaway capacity and negative (sometimes very negative) prompt-month and cash prices at Waha. We added, however, that there’s good reason to believe the situation will soon be improving. A massive tranche of new takeaway capacity will be coming online over the next few months, ending the shortfall for many years to come, and gas demand from LNG exporters and power generators will ramp up fast. RBN’s monthly Arrow Model report, which tracks and forecasts shifting gas pipeline flows in Texas and Louisiana, expects that Waha basis — the difference between gas prices at Henry Hub and Waha — will shift from an average discount of $3.52/MMBtu this year to $1.28/MMBtu in 2027 and $0.70/MMBtu in 2028. Even if the Henry Hub price averages around $3.50/MMBtu over the next few years, as the forward curve indicates, Permian producers (even those without locked-in takeaway capacity) will get an uplift for their gas sales. With worries about gas takeaway and weak Waha prices fading away, producers are more likely to expand their drilling-and-completion activity in “gassier” parts of the Permian, many of which offer some of the most oil-saturated rock in the entire shale play. That impending shift creates an infrastructure challenge of its own, namely the need to develop new capacity to process the increasing volumes of associated gas from Permian wells. The buildout of new processing capacity in the Permian is not a new thing — far from it. According to RBN’s weekly NATGAS Permian report, nearly 10 Bcf/d of new processing capacity came online in 2022-25 and another 1.4 Bcf/d started up in Q1 2026. As shown in Figure 1 above, the Delaware Basin accounted for just over half of the capacity added over the past four years and three months — 5.4 Bcf/d in the West Texas part of the Delaware (dark-blue bar segments) and about 900 MMcf/d in the southeastern New Mexico part (light-blue bar segments) — while the Midland Basin (all of it in West Texas; orange bar segments) accounted for the remaining 4.9 Bcf/d, which for the sake of simplicity includes about 200 MMcf/d in the Central Platform. In all, more than 50 new or relocated processing plants and expansions came online during that period, including 11 each from Targa Resources and Energy Transfer’s ETC Field Services unit and eight from Enterprise Products Partners. (The gray dots in Figure 2 below show the plants that started up in 2022-24, while the purple dots indicate the plants with 2025 online dates and the dark-blue dots show the ones that came online in Q1 2026.)At least another 4 Bcf/d of additional processing capacity is under development in the Permian and expected to start up between Q2 2026 — i.e., now — and mid-2028: an even 2 Bcf/d in the Midland, just over 1.4 Bcf/d in the West Texas part of the Delaware, and 625 MMcf/d in the New Mexico part. (No projects announced so far have online dates past Q2 2028.) A total of nine new processing plants and two expansion projects (combined capacity about 2.4 Bcf/d; light-blue dots with numbers) are slated to come online by the end of this year, including:

In Q2, Kinetik Midstream’s 200-MMcf/d Kings Landing II in Eddy County, NM (#1 dot); Targa’s 275-MMcf/d Falcon II (#2 dot) in Culberson County, TX, in the Delaware Basin; and, in the Midland, Targa’s 275-MMcf/d East Pembrook (#3 dot) in Upton County, TX.
In Q3, ETC Field Services’ 275-MMcf/d Mustang Draw I (#4 dot) in Midland County, TX; Targa’s 275-MMcf/d East Driver (#5 dot) in Glasscock County, TX (also in the Midland); Producers Midstream’s 150-MMcf/d The Dude II (#6 dot) in Lea County, NM; and two as-yet-unidentified expansions by ONEOK totaling 110 MMcf/d.
In Q4, Enterprise’s 300-MMcf/d Athena (#7 dot) in Midland County, TX; ETC Field Services’ 275-MMcf/d Mustang Draw II (#8 dot), also in Midland County; and Brazos Midstream’s 300-MMcf/d Cassidy I (#9 dot) in Glasscock County, TX — all in the Midland Basin.

Note that six of the nine plants starting up in 2026’s three remaining quarters are in the Midland. That will flip in 2027 and 2028, when virtually all of the projects slated to come online (green and yellow dots, respectively, in Figure 2 above) are in the Delaware, which has some of the Permian’s most prolific crude oil resources — and some of the highest gas-to-oil ratios (GORs) — and that we expect will experience the fastest growth in associated gas production over the next few years.Figure 3 above shows historic and projected growth in Delaware Basin gross gas production in the 2022-28 period (dark-blue layer for the Texas part and light-blue layer for the New Mexico part) as well as growth in Delaware processing capacity over the same period (black line). As you can see, it’s been a horse race, with midstreamers struggling to keep pace with the production gains. (Surplus processing capacity in place prior to 2022 dealt with the gross gas above the black line.) Also, keep in mind that it’s not unusual for associated gas to be produced in New Mexico wells and piped as rich, unprocessed gas across the state line for processing in West Texas, where it’s easier to get processing capacity permitted and built. (Sometimes the gas is treated in New Mexico to reduce the high levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide in some gas produced there — see our three-part series on sour-gas-related production in The Land of Enchantment.) Assuming that gas takeaway issues out of the Permian are resolved for good later this year and Waha gas prices stay strong from then on, we expect gross gas production in the Delaware Basin to continue rising well into the 2030s. That, in turn, will require 4 to 6 Bcf/d of additional processing capacity — beyond what’s already planned, that is — by the middle of the next decade.

According to the latest data from Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs in major shale basins in the United States remained generally stable during the week ending April 24. -- The Permian Basin, as the largest shale-producing region in the United States, saw its rig count remain unchanged from last week, continuing the recent stable pattern of platform operations. Rig activity in the Eagle Ford Shale, Williston Basin, and Niobrara Shale also stayed steady, with no significant fluctuations observed. Notably, the Haynesville Shale added one rig this week, making it the only area among the seven major basins to experience a change—a possible indicator of minor adjustments in the region’s natural gas development activities. Meanwhile, the Utica Shale in the Appalachian region kept its rig count at previous levels. This week’s rig data reflects a cautious operating strategy in the US shale oil and gas industry under the current oil price environment. Except for Haynesville, the other six major basins have not adjusted drilling scale; producers appear more inclined to respond to market changes by optimizing the efficiency of their existing assets rather than expanding drilling plans.

Enviros sue over Trump green light to Gulf oil drilling - Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over the Interior Department’s approval of an ultra-deepwater oil drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico.The petition filed Monday in the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals targets BP’s first completely new oil field in the Gulf since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster and the groups say it endangers the health of Gulf residents, ecosystems, and the fishing and tourism industries.“The Trump administration has teed up the entire Gulf region for a Deepwater Horizon sequel with its approval of BP’s extremely risky ultra-deepwater drilling project,” said Earthjustice senior attorney Brettny Hardy. “The greenlighting of BP’s project sets a dangerously low bar for oil-and-gas companies that want to drill in our public waters. The Interior Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Net Imports of Crude Oil Plummet to Record Low -According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended April 10, U.S. commercial crude inventories posted their first draw in nine weeks, as imports and exports swung sharply in opposite directions. Imports plummeted by 1 MMb/d to just under 5.3 MMb/d, while exports soared by an equal magnitude in the opposite direction, reaching a seven-month high of 5.2 MMb/d. As discussed in this week's Crude Oil Billboard, the combined effect was a 2.1 MMb/d collapse in net imports to just 66 Mb/d (dashed circle in graph below), a record low that brings the U.S. within striking distance of net-exporter status for the first time in history. For context, 2026 year-to-date net imports average a much more substantial 2.6 MMb/d. On a country-by-country basis, imports weakened across key suppliers. Canadian imports declined 18% to 3.5 MMb/d, the lowest volume since late December. Additionally, crude imports from Saudi Arabia were effectively cut in half to 250 Mb/d, the lowest volume since early December.To note, the EIA's 'unaccounted-for' number also jumped from just 124 Mb/d to 1 MMb/d, suggesting either under-reported supplies or over-reported demand in the numbers. Given the scale of the swing, weekly noise, and timing discrepancies in marine movements, we suspect some degree of overstatement in this week's exports. However, even after adjusting for potentially overstated exports, net imports remain exceptionally tight by recent standards.

Gulf Coast Crude Oil Shipping Costs to Asia and Europe Soar, Then Crash Back to Earth -From early February to late March, shipping costs for crude tankers departing the U.S. Gulf Coast rose sharply across all vessel classes and destinations as global trade flows adjusted to the disruption of Middle East supply. Rates increased most dramatically on the Asia route. Over that period, the cost of shipping crude from Houston to Asia (left graph) rose by roughly $13.50/bbl (about +130%) on Aframax vessels (roughly 600–750 Mbbl capacity) and by about $6–$7/bbl (+80%) on VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers, about 2.0 MMbbl capacity). On the Europe route (right graph), the increase was similarly pronounced, with VLCC costs rising by approximately $5/bbl (+100%) and Aframax rates increasing by about $10.50/bbl (+150%). The gains reflected rapid repositioning of ships, longer voyage distances, and strong demand for available tonnage as trade patterns shifted due to the Iran war. That late-March surge marked the high point for shipping costs. Aframax rates to Asia peaked near $25/bbl in the last week of March, then fell sharply, declining by roughly $12/bbl (about 50%) to the low-teens in recent days. On the Europe route, the reversal was similar, with Aframax costs dropping by about $10/bbl (roughly 55%). Rates for larger vessels also eased, though more gradually. VLCC costs from Houston to Asia declined by roughly $5–$6/bbl (about 30%–35%), while shipments to Europe fell by about $3–$4/bbl (roughly 30%–35%) from their early-April highs. Three factors explain the divergence between vessel classes. First, a growing share of U.S. crude exports — particularly longer-haul shipments to Asia — has shifted toward VLCC cargoes, reducing demand for smaller fixtures. Second, vessel availability has expanded at the smaller end of the fleet due to several factors, including petroleum-product tankers shifting into crude service. Third, the cost structure for VLCC exports is inherently more logistics-intensive. Because most Houston-area terminals cannot fully load a VLCC at the dock, exporters rely on reverse lightering and offshore transfers, which sustain costs even as freight rates soften. Those costs for VLCCs are included in the per-barrel values shown in the graph. The result is a market that has transitioned from disruption to rebalancing, with Aframax rates normalizing quickly while VLCC costs have also come down, but not by quite as much. Until the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, tanker rates — like all other costs and prices across energy markets — will remain highly volatile.

Enbridge loses Supreme Court bid to transfer Michigan pipeline fight - The Supreme Court will not allow a federal court to decide whether Michigan improperly ordered the shutdown of an oil pipeline beneath the Great Lakes, handing a win to state officials and opponents of the project. In a unanimous decision Wednesday led by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the high court rejected Enbridge Energy’s argument that it should be allowed to transfer a lawsuit related to Line 5 from state to federal court — even after the company missed a 30-day deadline to request to move the case. Enbridge is challenging a 2020 order from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and the state Department of Natural Resources revoking an easement for the more than 70-year-old pipeline to cross 4 miles beneath the Straits of Mackinac. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) initially defended the order in state court. Enbridge did not seek to remove the case until after briefs had been filed, and the case was argued before the court about two years later. Nessel argued that Enbridge had ample opportunities to transfer the case and that the lawsuit belonged in state court because it was focused on issues of Michigan law. But Enbridge claimed the suit should be before a federal bench in part because Whitmer’s order conflicted with a 1977 pipeline transit treaty between the United States and Canada, which bars state and local officials from halting the flow of hydrocarbons across the border.

Trump Administration Issues New Presidential Permits for Enbridge Pipelines | RBN Energy -The Trump administration on Wednesday issued nine presidential permits authorizing oil and liquid material crossings along the U.S.-Canada border for Enbridge’s lines. According to analysis from our friends at Plainview Energy, eight of these permits appear to serve as replacements or “refreshes” of existing authorizations. These updates are likely intended to strengthen legal language and modernize the regulatory standing of critical conduits. The refreshed permits cover Enbridge Mainline’s six existing lines in Pembina County, North Dakota, the primary gateway to the U.S. Additionally, the permits cover two of Enbridge’s Mainline export lines from St. Clair, Michigan back into Canada. The Southern Lights and Bakken lines also received refreshed permits covering their existing infrastructure. While much of the administrative action reinforces existing operations, there is an issuance of a ninth permit for a “newly constructed 24-inch pipeline” tied to Enbridge’s Bakken Pipeline, which may act as a replacement to the current 12-inch border crossing line. This new authorization ties in with Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization 2 project (MLO2), which would see the re-reversal of Enbridge’s underutilized 145-Mb/d Bakken pipeline, which currently moves barrels from North Dakota to the Mainline in Saskatchewan, and a tie-in to the underutilized 750-Mb/d Energy Transfer-operated Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL; red line in map below). This larger 24-inch border crossing line is likely needed if MLO2 is to achieve its full 250 Mb/d. MLO2, has a targeted startup in 2028.As we discussed in our recent blog (Let’s Get It Started), Enbridge sanctioned the Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (MLO1) project in Q4 2025. It will add 150 Mb/d of capacity via “capital work, pumps, drag reducing agents, et cetera,” and is expected to be complete by late 2027. MLO1 will also add 100 Mb/d of capacity on Enbridge’s Flanagan South Pipeline (burgundy line in Figure 1) that runs from Flanagan, IL, to Cushing, OK, and is estimated to cost $1.4 billion. We’ve covered this project and others in our recent Roundabout! report. This new multiclient study examines the emerging role of the Rockies corridor and the Guernsey, WY hub as a key conduit for moving Canadian heavy crude toward downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.

Canada Approves Enbridge's $4 Billion Sunrise Gas Expansion Canada has approved Enbridge's C$4 billion Sunrise Expansion, clearing the way for a major buildout of British Columbia gas infrastructure that will add 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity to the Westcoast pipeline system. Construction is scheduled to begin in July, with the project targeted to enter service in late 2028, Enbridge said in a Friday press release. The expansion includes about 139 kilometers of new pipeline through 11 looping segments, additional compression, and upgrades to existing facilities along the Westcoast system, which already moves up to 3.6 billion cubic feet per day.The added capacity comes as British Columbia prepares for rising gas demand tied to power generation, industrial growth and LNG exports, including facilities such as Woodfibre LNG. Ottawa explicitly tied the approval to energy security and supply reliability as Canadian policymakers push infrastructure projects fasterFor Enbridge, the project expands a critical gas artery at a time when North American natural gas infrastructure is increasingly being viewed through both export and security lenses.The company said Sunrise is expected to contribute more than C$3 billion to Canada's economy and support roughly 2,500 construction jobs. Enbridge also said more than C$52 million has already been spent with Indigenous businesses, while the Westcoast system itself includes Indigenous ownership through the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance.Major greenfield pipeline approvals in Canada have become harder to secure. Sunrise is an expansion line alongside an existing corridor, and expansion projects often carries fewer regulatory obstacles than entirely new routes.The project also strengthens feedgas positioning for Canada's LNG ambitions. British Columbia has been moving to establish itself as a Pacific Coast export hub, and additional takeaway capacity supports that buildout.Sunrise adds roughly 8% to the Westcoast system's current capacity, which is noteworthy in a market where new LNG demand, domestic heating demand, and industrial loads compete for the same resource.The approval also comes as North American natural gas infrastructure has drawn renewed strategic attention, with governments increasingly linking pipeline expansions to affordability, reliability and trade.

Alaska LNG Project Clearing Hurdles, Inching Toward Reality -Glenfarne Group LLC continues to advance the Alaska LNG project and some work on its first phase could begin soon. At A Glance:

Early pipeline work expected first
Tentative deals to sell 13 Mt/y signed
All federal permits secured

Canadian Rig Counts - Gas Rig Count May Have Bottomed, Oil Rig Count Down By 6 | RBN Energy -The Western Canadian rig count fell by 5 rigs for the week ending April 17, according to Baker Hughes data. The gas-directed rig count was up 1 to 53 rigs (blue line in left-hand chart below), while the oil-directed rig count was down 6 to 75 rigs (red line in right-hand chart below). After following last year's rig count quite closely so far in 2026, the gas-directed rig count has recently plateaued and is now ahead of this time last year by 6 rigs, while the oil-directed rig count was 6 rigs below this time last year, and continued its typical decline during spring break-up season. For gas-directed rig counts, active rigs in Alberta rose by 2 last week to 42 (vs. 32 at this time last year), while active rigs in B.C. fell by 1 to 11 (vs. 15 at this time last year). The gains in Alberta came from the Foothills Front region, where much of the province's drilling for Montney and Deep Basin gas wells occurs, where 30 rigs were running vs. 25 at this time last year.Active oil-directed rigs in Alberta fell by 2 last week to 70 (vs. 76 at this time last year), with all the declines coming from Northeast Alberta (oil sands region) where the rig count has been uncharacteristically strong through spring break-up season so far (39 vs. 24 at this time last year). Active oil-directed rigs in Saskatchewan fell by 3 to 5 (vs. 9 at this time last year), and in British Columbia fell from 1 to zero.

Questerre to sell non-operated Kakwa Central assets for $23.5 million - Questerre Energy Corporation today it has entered into a binding agreement to sell its non-operated minority working interest in its Kakwa Central assets for total consideration of $23.5 million.Pursuant to a purchase and sale agreement, the consideration includes a cash payment of $23.5 million, the assumption of decommissioning liabilities for the assets as well as the Company's commitments under its firm transportation and processing contracts. The agreement is scheduled to close on May 1, 2026, and is subject to receipt of requisite approvals and customary adjustments. Production from the Kakwa Central assets averaged approximately 650 boe per day during the first quarter of 2026. Post the disposition, Questerre production is expected to average over 4,500 boe per day including production from its Kakwa North assets where it holds a 50% working interest.Michael Binnion, President and Chief Executive Officer of Questerre, commented, "We invested in Kakwa Central over 14 years ago to extend the condensate rich window of the Montney. It was a success and we jointly drilled over 40 wells to develop these lands. This sale strengthens our balance sheet without the issuance of any equity capital. We are focused on developing our other assets including our adjacent lands at Kakwa North." Questerre is an energy technology and innovation company focused on responsibly developing oil and gas resources. The Company holds a significant natural gas discovery in the Quebec Utica shale, widely recognized as one of the most important undeveloped natural gas resources in Eastern Canada. The Company believes society can successfully transition its energy portfolio. With new clean technologies and innovation to responsibly produce and use energy, society can sustain both human progress and the natural environment.

LNG Canada Nearing Full Capacity as Iran War Squeezes Global Supply - LNG Canada is set to hit full capacity in April as the world’s supply of the super-chilled fuel was dented by conflict in the Middle East and demand for North American cargoes has jumped. NGI chart showing LNG Canada monthly exports by destination country from mid-2025 to mid-2026, with shipments rising above 1.0 million tons in early 2026. South Korea, Japan and China lead demand, while the 3-month moving average trends higher before easing, reflecting shifting Asian LNG import patterns. At A Glance:
April loadings approach 15 cargoes
Asian buyers chase constrained supply
Phase 2 decision draws closer

Flaring Scrutiny Intensifies at LNG Canada During Export Ramp-Up --The British Columbia Energy Regulator (BCER) has ordered LNG Canada to investigate and possibly fix issues at the commissioning export facility after investigating flaring events earlier in the year. At A Glance:

Regulator cites black-smoke permit violations
BCER requires corrective measures by October
Order follows January flaring incidents

Pipeline leak triggers Gulf of Mexico oil spill - A recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a leak in a pipeline in the Abkatun-Cantarell area, the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) said on Wednesday, News.Az reports, citing Xinhua. Pemex Director Víctor Rodríguez Padilla stated that an internal investigation identified mechanical failures and previously unreported repairs in the pipeline, along with evidence of a hydrocarbon leak that had earlier been denied by operational units. He added that satellite imagery, aerial surveillance, and drift modeling confirmed the damage site as the source of the oil slick. Authorities have launched a coordinated response to contain the spill and reduce environmental damage. Cleanup operations have so far covered 48 beaches, with approximately 915 tons of waste collected, including oil mixed with sand, debris, and sargassum. The spill was first detected on Feb. 6, prompting federal agencies to begin monitoring and containment efforts while continuing to assess its environmental impact.

Pemex Undersea Pipeline Found to Cause Gulf Oil Spill - An oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that soiled beaches, killed wildlife and sparked outrage from environmental groups was caused by a leaky pipeline owned by state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, the company said. A government investigation determined that an undersea pipeline near the Abkatun offshore platform was the cause of the leak, Pemex Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez said at a press briefing on Thursday evening. Three employees were fired as a result of the accident, he added. The amount of crude that spilled into the Gulf is still being determined, Mexico’s Science Minister Rosaura Ruiz said at the same press conference. The oil facility is close to the Bay of Campeche, off the Mexican coast. The spill, which spread from Mexico’s southern Tabasco state to as far north as Tamaulipas, underscores Pemex’s struggles to clean up its environmental track record after repeated disasters, explosions and accidents in recent years. Those events have compounded the company’s financial woes as it seeks to reverse slumping production and emerge from under more than $85 billion in debt. Mexico’s government began investigating the cause of the leak last month, initially suggesting that natural oil seepages, illegal dumping from tankers or faulty Pemex infrastructure could be to blame. Environmental groups argued that faulty facilities were the most likely cause of the pollution. Environmental groups including Greenpeace and the Mexico Alliance Against Fracking have estimated that at as much as 800 tons of hydrocarbons have spilled into the Gulf as a result of the accident.

Debt Overhaul Clouds Outlook for NFE Mexico LNG Projects, Agua Dulce Demand - New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is exploring a step back from LNG export development in Mexico as it works to finalize a debt restructuring plan by next month.Map of the Sur de Texas–Tuxpan pipeline route showing natural gas flows from South Texas into eastern Mexico, connecting to Altamira and Tuxpan, with LNG export facilities, pipeline infrastructure, and NGI Mexico gas price index locations highlighted. At A Glance:
FLNG strategy pivots toward partner funding
NFE secures 97% creditor support
Agua Dulce near-term outlook uncertain

Mexican Upstream Trade Group Urges Reforms as Natural Gas Imports Spring Up Mexico’s natural gas imports are picking up as the country moves toward its high-demand summer period.Chart comparing NGI’s Agua Dulce, Waha bidweek natural gas prices and average U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico from April 2023 to April 2026. Agua Dulce prices generally trade above Waha, while export volumes fluctuate around 6.0-8.0 Bcf/d, illustrating the relationship between South Texas pricing, Permian gas weakness and cross-border natural gas demand. At A Glance:
Imports hit 7.74 Bcf peak
TransPecos work trims border flows
Shale push targets domestic output

Venezuelan Natural Gas Reserves Offer ‘Interesting Opportunities’ for Exports - Venezuelan natural gas resources could be a major opportunity for U.S. upstream companies due to advantageous regulations over the fuel’s development, according to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute. At A Glance:

Private rules ease upstream entry
Dragon sits near Trinidad LNG
Perla keeps export options alive

Natural Gas Buyers Face Mounting Uncertainty as Iran War Further Disrupts Global Energy Flows -- The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran approached the two-month mark without a clear off-ramp in view, leaving energy buyers to grapple with a host of uncertainties as they try to make strategic decisions in an increasingly competitive natural gas market. Map of the Persian Gulf showing LNG import and export terminals across Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, including key facilities such as Ras Laffan, Das Island, and Jebel Ali, with the Strait of Hormuz highlighted as a critical chokepoint for global LNG flows. At A Glance:
Iran war upends energy flows
Global, U.S. NatGas prices choppy
LNG exporters near capacity

LNG Demand Seen Rising on European Cold Snap, but Asian Weakness Keeps Gains in Check - Global natural gas demand is expected to see an uneven but humble gain in weather-driven demand over the next two weeks as conditions over key European markets offset warm U.S. patterns.NGI charts showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo as of April 20, 2026. Temperatures follow seasonal patterns, with winter dips below normal and recent rebounds toward average levels, reflecting trends that influence global LNG and natural gas demand. At A Glance:
LNG flows rise despite mild weather
U.S. shoulder season dampens consumption
Asia softness caps LNG demand upside

European Energy Watchdog Warns Hitting Natural Gas Storage Targets Could Prove Difficult -The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said Thursday that Europe’s regulation for member countries to meet natural gas storage targets by winter may push prices higher this summer as the continent competes with Asia for supply that’s been limited by the Iran war.Bar chart of Europe LNG imports by region of origin from 2020 to 2025, showing the United States as the largest supplier with volumes rising above 250 million tons, followed by Russia, Qatar, and North Africa, highlighting shifting supply dynamics after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At A Glance:
EU spot demand could increase
80% storage refill feasible
Higher levels difficult without new supplies

EU Looks Beyond LNG in New Push for Energy Independence - In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, European Union (EU) leaders forged new energy regulations to boost natural gas storage and procure LNG from the United States, but policymakers are now seeking to reduce exposure to international volatility. Chart showing global natural gas futures settlements through 2029, comparing Henry Hub, JPN/KOR LNG, and TTF prices, with Henry Hub near $3.46/MMBtu for the 12-month strip as of April 22, 2026, while Asian and European LNG benchmarks trend higher near $14-15/MMBtu before declining toward $8-9/MMBtu by 2029. At A Glance:
EU pivots from NatGas to renewables
Risk premium fades from TTF prices
Storage refill needs boost LNG buying

Wheatstone LNG Resumes Full Production, Adding Supplies to Market Rattled by Iran War -- Map of Australia highlighting major LNG liquefaction facilities including Gorgon, Wheatstone, Pluto, Prelude, Ichthys, Darwin, and Gladstone, along with key market hubs, illustrating the country’s role as a leading global LNG exporter. Despite an extended ceasefire, the U.S. Navy continues to blockade Iranian ports, creating a stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz that has again lifted global commodity prices. Iran has responded by seizing vessels and announced on Thursday (April 23) the first revenue from tolls imposed on vessels crossing the strait. About a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passed through the waterway before the war started on Feb. 28.

Russian oil flow to Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline resumes - Bratislava confirmed that the country started receiving crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline early on Thursday, after a three-month halt. The flow of Russian oil to Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline that crosses Ukraine has resumed, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková said on Thursday morning. "The Economy Ministry informs that today at 2 am the reception ⁠of oil to Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline was resumed," Saková said in a ministry statement. This confirmation puts an end to a months-long standoff between Ukraine, the EU and Hungary and Slovakia when the transit of Russian cheap oil stopped after a Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the end of January. The confirmation is set to unblock the €90-billion loan for Ukraine, which has been vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia since February, despite being initially agreed upon in December. The disbursement is scheduled to begin between late May and early June. Hungary’s energy giant MOL said on Wednesday it was informed by the operator of the Ukrainian section of the pipeline, Ukrtransnafta, that "the receipt of crude oil from Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline system began in Ukraine at noon today." Druzhba pipeline, which brings cheap Russian crude to Slovakia and Hungary, went offline in late January after being damaged in a Russian drone attack. Budapest and Bratislava accused Kyiv of deliberately withholding transit. Ukraine said the halt was forced by the need to repair the pipeline.

Finland to protect coast from risk of Russian oil spill - Finland is taking measures to protect its Baltic Sea coast from the "high" risk of an oil spill from Russia's shadow fleet, installing a permanent oil boom fastening system, a Finnish foundation said Wednesday. The Nordic country has repeatedly expressed fears of a major Baltic Sea oil spill from a tanker belonging to Russia's so-called shadow fleet — ageing and often uninsured vessels used to circumvent Western sanctions against Moscow. Rings will be bolted into the bedrock of islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland archipelago, allowing oil containment booms to be attached quickly in the event of an oil spill, the John Nurminen Foundation, which specialises in protecting the Baltic Sea, said in a statement. The booms would be able to contain the oil before it reaches shore or sensitive ecosystems. The foundation is launching the project "Bolt it for the Baltic Sea!" together with Finnish authorities. "The risk of an environmental disaster is currently high in the Gulf of Finland due to anomalies detected in the navigation systems of the merchant navy," Jukka Pekka Lumilahti, head of rescue operations at the Gulf of Finland coast guard, said in the statement. "The anchor points installed in the archipelago significantly speed up pollution control operations," he said. The frequent scrambling of GPS signals in the region makes it more difficult for ships to navigate, while shadow fleet ships are known to switch off their AIS tracking systems. According to the foundation, recent drone attacks by Ukraine on the Russian oil ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, located at the far end of the Gulf of Finland, have increased the risk of an oil spill. A collision or grounding of a shadow fleet tanker could result in thousands of tonnes of crude oil spilling into the water, with fatal consequences for the fragile ecosystems.

Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens -- Extreme volatility in crude futures prices has eased in recent days, although the market reacted with an 8% jump early Monday to the news of failed U.S.-Iran talks and the beginning of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders continue to react to any signal of how the worst-ever disruption energy market would unfold, but with uncertainty still very high, oil market participants bet on and try to predict movements.The worst of the volatility may have passed, as investors and speculators appear to have exhausted their capacity to respond to the constantly shifting narratives of the Trump Administration, analysts say. It appears that the oil market is gradually becoming used to the price swings in either direction that follow each post of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, the state of negotiations, or the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint which handled about 20% of daily global oil and gas flows before the war. Some say many of President Trump’s public posts are negotiation tactics and traders may have already moved from peak fear and peak panic and into calmer trade awaiting real outcomes.“Markets have reached peak uncertainty,” Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, told CNBC earlier this week.“The reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.”These comments came hours after President Trump announced the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has now begun.But while it is part of whatever negotiating tactics the U.S. President is using, the U.S. blockade only exacerbates the real physical constraints to crude oil flows. These have already been severely hampered by the seven-week-long de facto closure of the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, gas, fuels, and fertilizer. The blockade on top of the blockade and the Iranian threats that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if Iranian ports are blocked further push back the time when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen to free traffic and begin easing the increasingly tightening physical oil supply.This would take months, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free traffic today.As a result of the blocked traffic, global oil and fuel supply is shrinking and energy prices are soaring, including U.S. gasoline prices that are now more than $1 per gallon more expensive than seven weeks ago.The U.S. blockade now poses a key question to analysts, policy makers, and war decision makers: “does a closed Strait hurt Iran faster than it hurts the global economy?” Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at SEB Bank wrote in a Monday note.Moreover, the U.S. blockade raises the value of keeping the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen out of the war, Meyersson said.The Houthis in the past two years have hit commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – the only route for Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and for the Suez Canal to remain open to traffic. So far in this war, they have kept a low profile and have not moved to impede vessel traffic off Yemen’s coast. But no one can predict with any certainty that the Houthis will stay out of the mess in the Middle East. “Both the US and Iranian sides have once again signalled the extent of their respective entrenched positions,” Meyersson noted.“As such, given the time constraints and likely ongoing military preparations on both sides, absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the road to continued warfare remains open.”Oil futures traders are betting on how they believe the conflict would unfold, hoping for the best but wary of the worst. Still, they are a bit better prepared to handle all the conflicting signals they are being given by the hour.Not prepared are the physical crude markets, where prices have soared to near all-time highs or record-highs, including compared to the 2008 price rally just before the financial crisis.The sharp decline in crude futures last week was likely primarily driven by an overcrowded long position, rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals, which continue to point to a tightening physical market, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.Crude futures were trading slightly lower than $100 per barrel as of Tuesday morning. But the price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.Brent futures may have sunk below $100 per barrel, but constraints are intensifying amid the supply shock, with the physical price of a key North Sea blend, Forties, surging last week to a record high of as much as $147 per barrel.The surge in physical crude prices reflects the massive supply shock, with about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and unable to go to refiners.The huge $50 a barrel premium of the physical crude over the futures prices signals that the real oil supply shock is enormous, even if the sentiment on the futures market is tentatively hopeful that there is still a way to resolve the Middle East crisis soon.

Oil prices rise anew amid a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz (AP) — Oil prices rose in early trading Sunday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.The price of U.S. crude oil increased 6.4% to $87.90 per barrel an hour after trading resumed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 5.8% to $95.64 per barrel. The market reaction followed more than two days of lifted hopes and dashed expectations involving the strait. Crude prices plunged more than 9% Friday after Iran said it would fully reopen the strait, which it effectively controls, to commercial traffic.Tehran reversed that decision and fired on several vessels Saturday after President Donald Trump said a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. attacked and forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly tried to get around the blockade. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond.Sunday’s higher prices wiped out much of the declines seen Friday, signaling renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East.The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades. Countries in Asia and Europe that import much of their oil from the Gulf have felt the most impact of halted supplies and production cuts, although rapidly rising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.Asked when he thought U.S. motorists would again see gas cost less than $3 a gallon on average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices at the pump might not go down that much until next year.“But prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.

Oil prices jump, stocks pull back on US-Iran talks uncertainty - Oil prices surged on Monday and global equities eased as markets grew increasingly concerned that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran might not hold and a second round of talks was hanging in the balance, while tensions over the Strait of Hormuz once again escalated. Brent crude futures rose about 6% to $95.85 a barrel. MSCI's world share index was last ⁠down around 0.3%, with Europe's cross-regional STOXX 600 down ⁠1.1%, after Asia's equity markets shrugged off risks to advance. S&P 500 futures were 0.65% lower. Concerns grew on Monday that the cease-fire between the United States and Iran might not hold after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run ⁠its blockade and Iran vowed to retaliate. However, lingering hopes for a deal to end the seven-week crisis continued to support Asian equities, even as Tehran said it was not currently planning to attend peace talks. Crude plunged on Friday while U.S. stocks rallied after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) usually passes, citing the cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. However, over the weekend, it said the strait was closed again to traffic while the U.S. has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dived more than 11% and Brent shed 9% in response to developments on Friday. But both contracts jumped sharply on Monday, days before the end of a two-week ceasefire, owing to the ongoing U.S. blockade and after an American destroyer fired on and seized an Iranian ship that tried to evade it. Tehran warned it would retaliate. Kpler data showed that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertilizer passed through the strait on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1. Still, shipping data on Monday indicated that only three vessels transited the waterway over the past 12 hours, a Reuters report said. The blockade of Iranian ports has been a significant sticking point in negotiations between the two countries, and state broadcaster IRIB cited Iranian sources as saying "there are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-U.S. talks" in Pakistan. The Fars and Tasnim news agencies had earlier cited anonymous sources as saying "the overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive," adding that lifting the U.S. blockade was a precondition for negotiations. There has so far been only a single, 21-hour negotiating session held in Islamabad on April 11 that ended inconclusively, though groundwork for fresh talks continued afterwards. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it," Trump said in a social media post Sunday, while also renewing his threats against Iran's infrastructure if a deal is not made. But Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that any attempt to pass through the strait without permission "will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the blockade was "a violation" of the cease-fire. Chris Weston at Pepperstone said traders were assessing "whether the cease-fire can be salvaged through this week's diplomatic talks, with recalibration on the probability of military escalation." The outlook for further negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and a quick resolution seemed uncertain. "Whether this impasse proves to be merely a detour on the path to a resolution remains to be seen, but more volatility would seem the most likely outcome," Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a note. "We always thought there would be some swings and roundabouts within that, rather than a straight linear path to the end outcome," said Investec's Horsfield. Bonds, which rallied on Friday, retreated and the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 2.6 basis points to 4.2697%, while the yield on German 10-year government bonds was last 3.6 bps higher at 3.0015%. The dollar, which was sold ⁠for the best ‌part of ‌the past two weeks, broadly steadied, trading at $1.1761 per euro. Wall Street indexes touched ⁠record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, ‌the bulk of which come this week. British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European Purchasing Managers' Index figures are also due through the week, though much of the market's focus will be ⁠on Gulf shipping. "The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one ⁠data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz," "Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation."

Oil Jumps on Renewed Hormuz Closure, Maritime Hostilities -- Crude and product futures leapt about 5% on Monday morning after Tehran on the weekend reimposed traffic restrictions over the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship as the U.S. embargo on Iranian ports continued. Iranian gunboats also reportedly opened fire on an Indian-flagged vessel and other ships in the strait. By 7:55 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for May delivery was up $4.50, or 5.5%, to $88.35 bbl, after reaching an intra-day high of $91.2 bbl. ICE Brent for June rose $4.27, or 4.7%, to $94.65 bbl, following a session peak at $97.50 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.1646 to $3.5620 gallon, while front-month NYMEX RBOB futures climbed $0.0828 to $3.0876 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.112 points against a basket of foreign currencies to 98.01 points. Crude futures reversed most of Friday's slump of up to 12%, which came after Tehran announced that it will allow traffic to flow unimpeded on the Strait of Hormuz in reaction to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Idle tankers in the Persian Gulf immediately set sail to attempt passage, but only a few traversed the waterway amid confusion over the status of the strait. Tehran said the reopening was conditioned on the U.S. lifting its embargo on Iranian vessels and ports. It declared the strait shut again after a U.S. warship fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship off an Iranian port. Iranian military gunboats engaged at least three commercial ships, including an Indian-flagged ship, that it said were attempting to transit to transit the Hormuz without approval. The brief reopening of the strait had led to expectations of a resumption of oil flows on the Hormuz, which typically provides passage to some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that have been stranded for seven weeks now, creating the largest oil supply disruption in history. The Iranian concession was also interpreted as a sign that a permanent negotiated agreement or at least an extension of the ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, between the warring parties was moving closer, lowering the geopolitical risk premium. Both sides called the others' actions over the weekend a breach of the ceasefire. The Iranian military declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. lifted its blockade, and government officials said the ongoing U.S. embargo was a major roadblock to ongoing diplomatic efforts. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had committed a serious violation of the ceasefire but remained optimistic about a peace deal. Tehran, however, said that there is no plan for a second round of negotiations for now.

Oil prices rise 6% on fears of US-Iran ceasefire collapse (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped around 6% in Monday trading on uncertainty over peace talks between the U.S. and Iran after violence flared around the Strait ‌of Hormuz. Brent crude futures settled $5.10, or 5.64%, higher to $95.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced $5.76, or 6.87%, at $89.61. Both contracts had tumbled by 9% on Friday for their largest daily declines since April 18 after Iran said that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of the ceasefire. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Over the weekend, the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would ⁠retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities. "The goodwill that was generated on Friday has totally evaporated," With a two-week ceasefire set to expire later this week, the renewed hostilities cast doubts over prospects for a second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. Iran is considering attending the peace talks, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, but no decision had been made. The Gulf nation's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar that the U.S. "continued violations of the ceasefire" are a major obstacle to the continuation of the diplomatic process, an Iranian foreign ministry statement said on Monday. Trump, asked over the weekend about the chance of a ceasefire extension, ‌said: "I don't ⁠know. Maybe not. Maybe I won't extend it. But the blockade is going to remain." Despite uncertainty over the ceasefire, analysts noted oil prices were off the highs seen at the beginning of the Middle East conflict. "As long as we don't have full-scale warfare, my feeling is that we're going to slowly but steadily grind lower," s Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly ⁠one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied gas supply, remained at a virtual standstill on Monday, with only three crossings in the past 12 hours, shipping data showed. "The strait remains under a double blockade," said Nikos Tzabouras, market analyst at Tradu, noting a looming ceasefire ⁠deadline and uncertainty over any agreement being reached. "These factors can push crude even higher and, even if a resolution is achieved, it will be hard for prices to return to pre-war levels as supply is unlikely to be restored overnight." More than ⁠20 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilisers, Kpler data showed. That was the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

Oil Prices Slip As Markets Reprice Risk Ahead Of US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline --U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped nearly 2% to hover around the high-$80s per barrel, while Brent crude also retreated, reports Reuters. The decline followed a surge triggered by renewed tensions in West Asia, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows, has become the focal point of market anxiety. Any disruption here, whether through military escalation or shipping restrictions, has an immediate and outsized impact on global prices. "The market is no longer reacting to supply and demand in the traditional sense," said an energy strategist at a Singapore-based trading firm. "It is reacting to geopolitical probabilities." That distinction is crucial. Prices are no longer being driven by consumption trends or inventory data alone, but by the perceived likelihood of conflict, or its avoidance. The strategic Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate market sentiment. This narrow waterway, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil supply passes, has become a critical flashpoint. Recent weeks have seen heightened tensions in and around the corridor, reinforcing its status as the world's most sensitive oil transit route. Oil tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz amid rising geopolitical tension. IBT SG The current softness reflects short-term optimism around possible talks rather than any meaningful easing of supply constraints. Structural issues ranging from disrupted shipping routes to elevated insurance costs and delayed cargo movements, continue to weigh. Even in a best-case scenario where a ceasefire holds, global oil inventories are expected to decline in the coming months. Supply chains have already absorbed significant shocks, and the recovery process is likely to be gradual. The scenario leaves the market vulnerable to further disruptions, particularly in a context where spare production capacity among major producers remains limited. The situation is further complicated by the absence of a meaningful buffer in the global oil system. Unlike previous crises, when excess capacity or strategic reserves could cushion supply shocks, current conditions offer little margin for error. Any escalation in tensions could quickly push prices higher, with some projections indicating a potential surge beyond $100 per barrel in the event of sustained disruption. For import-dependent economies such as Japan and India, the stakes are significant. A prolonged period of elevated oil prices could strain fiscal balances, widen current account deficits, and add to inflationary pressures. The ripple effects would extend beyond energy markets, influencing transport costs, industrial output, and overall economic stability. What emerges from this evolving scenario is a market increasingly driven by geopolitical probabilities rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals. Traders are simultaneously pricing in the likelihood of diplomacy, prolonged uncertainty, and outright conflict. In essence, the recent decline in crude prices offers only temporary relief. Beneath the surface, the oil market remains structurally tight and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. The outcome of US-Iran negotiations may determine the immediate trajectory, but the broader vulnerabilities, exposed by weeks of disruption and limited supply flexibility, are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon.

Oil Prices Steady Ahead of US-Iran Talks, Ceasefire End -- Oil and product futures were mixed Tuesday morning as market participants awaited word on the U.S. and Iran continuing negotiations before a ceasefire that will expire Wednesday. Iran has so far sent no delegation of any level to Islamabad, Pakistan for the talks with the U.S., Iranian media reported, contradicting an earlier report by the Wall Street Journal. In energy markets, price volatility remained elevated amid seesawing expectations on the future of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran that hinges on the outcome of the Islamabad talks and whether Pakistan will be able to broker another extension of the ceasefire, which expires at 8:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Trump, in a televised interview Tuesday morning, said he no plans for an extension. At stake is the resumption of global oil flows on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has shut since the start of the war at the end of February, crippling some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids. Whether the fighting continues after Wednesday or permanently stops has been catalyst for intra-day price swings of more than 10% Friday and 5% Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday called an extension of the ceasefire "unlikely," and Tehran said the ongoing U.S. blockade of maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports presented a major roadblock to any future negotiations. Notwithstanding the latest out of Tehran, media outlets earlier said Iranian diplomats will meet in Islamabad U.S. negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance. Crude futures tumbled as much as 12% on Friday when Iran briefly announced that the Strait of Hormuz was passable to all maritime traffic. But just a day later, the Iranian military reimposed traffic restrictions following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship. Prices have since clawed back most of Friday's decline. To partially ease the jam in global flows, the U.S. Treasury Department on Friday renewed a 30-day waiver on sanctioned Russian oil by four weeks. Asian refiners have increasingly turned to Russian oil to fill the gap caused by the now more than seven-week long shut-in of a fifth of global petroleum liquids flows in what the International Energy Agency has dubbed the largest oil supply disruption in history. Russian crude flows, however, have also increasingly suffered disruptions from a barrage of Ukrainian drone attacks on main oil export terminals in the Baltic and Black Seas. Moscow is reportedly set to halt flows of Kazakh crude oil to Europe through its Druzhba pipeline system starting May 1. Near 7:50 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for May delivery was down $0.32 to $89.32 bbl, and ICE Brent for June fell $0.30 to $95.18 bbl. Their respective second-month contracts edged higher. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.0213 to $3.5622 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0139 to $3.1307 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.125 points against a basket of foreign currencies to 98.03 points.

Oil Rises Ahead of WTI Expiration as Market Eyes Iran Talks The May WTI contract on its last trading session as the spot contract, traded higher as the market waited to see what direction the Iran war would take. The market was focused on whether potential talks between the U.S. and Iran would result in an extension of the existing ceasefire or a final peace agreement. The crude market posted a low of $87.76 in overnight trading before it retraced its previous losses. It breached its previous high of $91.20 and continued to trend higher ahead of the May contract’s expiration at the close. The market rallied to a high of $94.45 before it gave up some of its gains ahead of the close. The May WTI contract went off the board up $2.52 at $92.13 and the June WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $89.67. The June Brent contract ended the session up $3.00 at $98.48. Meanwhile, the product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil contract settling up 18.79 cents at $3.7288 and the RB market settling up 9.3 cents at $3.2098. On Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said gasoline prices likely peaked last week. Retail gasoline prices have surged by more than $1/gallon since the war with Iran began in late February, reaching a high of $4.17/gallon on April 8th. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline prices were averaging $4.02/gallon on Monday. That’s up from less than $3/gallon before the war with Iran. In an interview Sunday on CNN, the U.S. Energy Secretary said U.S. gasoline prices may remain at $3/gallon or higher until next year. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +11% w/w to 115.89 million bbl in the week ended April 17th. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is creating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world. Earlier in the month, he said that he viewed the current situation in global energy markets as worse than previous crises in 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined. North Dakota’s crude output is set to increase in the coming months as increasing oil prices prompt operators to increase activity. Operators in the third largest oil-producing state are responding to higher oil prices, increasing output from existing wells while holding back on new drilling amid sharp price volatility tied to the Iran war. Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, said there are currently 10 hydraulic fracturing crews operating in the state, with one operator in North Dakota set to pick up an additional rig and frac crew in July. Oil production in North Dakota increased by 4,000 bpd to 1.13 million bpd in February. Citi said if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist for another month, total losses could increase to about 1.3 billion barrels, with prices likely near $110/barrel in the second quarter of 2026.

Oil Prices Today: Oil prices today: Crude slips as markets weigh US-Iran talks, ceasefire extension - The Times of India - Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after an early rise in Asian trade, as investors assessed uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks following Washington’s decision to extend the ceasefire. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $98.27 a barrel at 0039 GMT, after earlier touching $99.38. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.39, after climbing as high as $90.71. Both benchmarks had gained about 3% in the previous session. The price movement comes after US President said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for negotiations. However, the move appeared unilateral, with no immediate confirmation from Iran or US ally Israel on whether they would adhere to the extension. Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps market on edge Market sentiment remains fragile, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to weigh on supply outlook. The key waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, saw minimal activity, with only three ships passing in the last 24 hours, reported Reuters. “With the outcome of talks still unclear and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market lacks clear direction,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, as per Reuters. He added, “Unless fighting resumes, prices are likely to stay near the current levels for now.” At the same time, the US has maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a move Tehran has described as an act of war. Iran has not officially responded to the ceasefire extension, though Tasnim News Agency said Tehran did not request it and reiterated its stance of resisting the blockade. Supply signals, geopolitical tensions in focus Beyond the Middle East, geopolitical developments elsewhere are also influencing oil markets. As per Reuters, Ukraine indicated that the Druzhba pipeline could resume operations, though sources said Russia may halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the route starting May 1. Investors are also awaiting fresh US inventory data. Market sources cited by Reuters said US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, while analysts estimate a 1.2 million-barrel draw for the week ended April 17. With ceasefire talks still uncertain and supply disruptions ongoing, oil markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.

Oil Up as US, Iran Seize Vessels After Ditching Talks -- Oil markets rose in choppy morning trading Wednesday on tit-fort-tat vessel seizures on the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the U.S., after an abandonment of peace talks took the Middle East conflict into a new phase of uncertainty. At least three container ships on the strait were hit by gunfire from Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy, according to media reports Wednesday that said two of the vessels were seized for alleged maritime violations and transferred to Iranian shores. The Iranian actions came after the U.S. Navy said on Tuesday it intercepted and boarded a sanctioned laden Iranian tanker for the first time since the start of the conflict. Iranian oil was with few exceptions the one supply source still making it out of the Persian Gulf unimpeded before the U.S. imposed an embargo last week. Since the Middle East conflict began at end -- February, Tehran had experienced a price -- rally induced windfall in oil export revenues, which are a main source of funding for the Iranian state. The White House, prior to the imposition of its blockade on Iran, even temporarily suspended sanctions on Iranian oil to soften a global energy price spike that has begun to hurt U.S. consumers of gasoline and diesel. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally extended the current ceasefire indefinitely hours before it was set to expire. The U.S. embargo on Iran-linked maritime trade, however, was kept in place. The lifting of the blockade is one of Tehran's key conditions for participating in further peace talks and for allowing free vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The seven-week long blockade of the chokepoint of a fifth of global petroleum liquid supply has led to the most severe oil supply disruption in history and sent physical crude and product prices soaring. By 8.45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was up $1.36, or 1.5%, to $91.03 bbl. ICE Brent crude for June rose $1.49, or 1.5%, to $99.97 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.1378 to $3.8666 gallon, while front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0283 to $3.2381 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.079 points to 98.30 against a basket of foreign currencies. Middle East tensions aside, Wednesday's market attention will be on U.S. oil inventory numbers due from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EDT for the week ended April 17. The EIA last Wednesday reported a 13.1 million bbl draw to total petroleum stocks in the second week of April. The American Petroleum Institute saw this trend continue, reporting on late Tuesday across-the-board declines in domestic crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel oil inventories. U.S. inventories have been declining amid high export demand as refiners and consumers in Europe and Asia were scrambling to fill the supply gap. Global inventories, which were at their highest in five years prior to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, have so far absorbed part of the supply shock. At least 500 million bbl of crude supply has been lost to date, leading to rapid stock drawdowns despite refiners being forced to throttle runs. The stock draws are likely to continue even once flows from the Middle East resume as it will take producers months to approach ante bellum production levels, with some supply likely permanently lost.

WTI Extends Gains As US Oil Product Exports Hit Record Highs, Huge SPR Release, Production Dips | ZeroHedge - Oil prices are modestly higher this morning, erasing overnight losses on Trump's 'ceasefire extension' after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. While headline roulette continues to drive oil prices incrementally, this morning's inventory/supply data from DOE will provide some color on how the API

Crude -4.5mm
Cushing +700k
Gasoline -5.2mm
Distillates -4.6mm

DOE:

Crude +1.925mm
Cushing +806k
Gasoline -4.57mm - 10th weekly draw in a row
Distillates -3.43mm - 4th weekly draw in a row

Crude stocks unexpectedly saw a build last week (after a draw the week before) as did Cushing inventories. However, on the product side, the sizable drawdowns continue... Since the war started, Crude stocks have risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws... Source: Bloomberg Weekly US implied gasoline demand is holding up despite elevated prices. The 4-week moving average indicate a slight rise of 32,000 barrels per day, while the more volatile weekly data series ticked down by 33,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, US average gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon. It was near $3 a gallon right before the Iran war. Source: Bloomberg The crude inventory build was more than offset by a huge 4.14mm barrel drawdown from the SPR... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. US crude production dipped once again... Notably, total US oil product exports accelerated to a new record high last week... WTI is holding gains for now, near yesterday's highs around $92... Finally, as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts and commodities trading company executives are expressing shock at what they call a disconnect between market pricing and reality. Prices of the most-active Brent futures contract are holding below $100 a barrel despite escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Just today, two attacks on ships in the waterway showed that the fight for control of the strait continues and spooked shipowners and crew members. Here's what I'm hearing from experts and industry leaders at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland: "The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future," said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. Price discovery refers to the process of buyers and sellers determining the fair price of a good or an asset in the futures market. "Futures prices are meant to do the job of giving signals to sort out supply and demand. We are doing the opposite," she said in a panel. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the market didn't experience nearly as large a physical disruption as this time, and yet oil prices went much higher and stayed between $110 and $125 a barrel for months, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Swiss commodity trader Trafigura, at the conference yesterday. "This time, the scale seems to be something where the market cannot get its head around it, and therefore it says, we are not going to think about it." The world is already losing an average of 10 million barrels a day of crude oil and 5 million barrels a day of oil products. Hits to the world's supply of fertilizers and chemicals are also severe.

Oil up $3 on drop in US fuel stocks, reports of gunfire hitting container ships in Hormuz (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up by more than $3 on Wednesday after a surprise gasoline and distillate stock draw in the U.S., and on reports of gunfire attacks on ‌at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz amid a lack of progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures settled up $3.43, or 3.48%, at $101.91 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures settled up $3.29, or 3.67%, to $92.96. Both benchmarks climbed about 3% on Tuesday. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. At the session high, U.S. crude futures were up by more than $4 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories posted surprise draws in the week ended April 17, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels, while ⁠U.S. gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI), opens new tab fell by 4.6 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.5-million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels in the week to 108.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 2.5-million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed. At least three container ships were hit by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy seized two vessels for what it described as maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. Iran and the U.S. have imposed restrictions on ships using the strait, which carried about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies until the war began at the end of February. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before it was due to expire. Neither side showed up for peace talks in Pakistan. The ceasefire announcement appeared to ‌be ⁠unilateral. It was not immediately clear whether Iran, or U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend the truce, which began two weeks ago. Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Wednesday that a complete ceasefire only made sense if it was not violated by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Qalibaf said in a post on X that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was impossible with such a "flagrant breach of the ceasefire". At least four people were killed in Israeli strikes ⁠in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, Lebanon's state news agency reported, and Hezbollah said it launched an attack drone at Israeli forces in the south, straining a ceasefire between the Iran-backed group and Israel. Russia will divert oil supplies from Kazakhstan previously intended for Germany via the Druzhba pipeline to other routes starting from ⁠May 1, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday. Novak said the logistical change was due to "technical possibilities" and had been agreed with Kazakhstan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he extended sanctions relief on Russian seaborne oil for 30 days because of requests from countries that are ⁠the most vulnerable to oil shortages from the closed Strait of Hormuz. The European Union is considering requiring countries to hold stockpiles of jet fuel, and potentially redistribute it based on regional needs and shortages, Europe's energy policy chief told Reuters on Wednesday, as concerns mount over possible shortages.

Oil rises above $102 on Strait of Hormuz tensions despite ceasefire extension - Oil prices climbed above $102 per barrel on Thursday as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, outweighing the impact of an extended ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to Anadolu Agency. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $102.7 at 09.12 local time (06.38) per barrel in international futures markets, up 0.7% from the previous close while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $93.9 per barrel. Prices had risen as high as $102.31 on Wednesday before settling at $101.91. Oil prices had initially eased after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. However, reports that Iran intervened in two foreign vessels over alleged security violations in the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices back toward the $100 level. Expectations that the ceasefire will hold limited gains, while ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicting statements in the Middle East increased volatility. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - a key artery for global energy trade - had been largely disrupted amid escalating conflict involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration said commercial crude inventories rose by about 1.9 million barrels last week to 465.7 million barrels, against expectations of a draw.

Oil Price Spike April 2026 | Brent Hits $105 Amid Iran Blockade -- International oil prices surged more than 4% on Thursday following a declaration from Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as long as the United States maintains its naval blockade, despite the recent extension of a bilateral ceasefire. In early trading at approximately 0025 GMT, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary U.S. benchmark, climbed 4.06% to reach $96.73 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent North Sea crude, the global standard, rose 3.62% to $105.63. Although both benchmarks experienced a slight retreat in the ensuing minutes, the market reaction underscored the volatility surrounding the regional conflict. Energy costs have escalated sharply since Feb. 28, the date U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iran. Prices have continued to climb as investors weigh the persistent uncertainty regarding a potential resumption of full-scale hostilities. The market surge follows a Tuesday announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated he would indefinitely maintain the current truce. The extension was intended to provide additional time for peace negotiations facilitated by Pakistan. While Iranian officials expressed appreciation for the diplomatic mediation efforts led by Islamabad, the government in Tehran has offered no further formal commentary regarding Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire.

Oil Steady Near 2-Week Highs on US-Iran Talks Uncertainty -- Oil and product futures were little changed in a volatile morning session Thursday as market participants sought clarity over future U.S.-Iran truce talks that could ease the largest oil supply disruption in history as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz approached the eight-week mark. By 08:45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was up $0.72 at $93.68 barrel (bbl), while ICE Brent for June climbed $0.79 to $102.71 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery retreated $0.0518 to $3.8861 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0171 to $3.3750 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.098 points to 98.51 against a basket of foreign currencies. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended indefinitely the ceasefire on Iran just hours before it was set to expire. Delegations from both countries have yet to meet for a second round of direct negotiations as the U.S. embargo on Iranian maritime trade continues. The lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports is one of Tehran's preconditions for any further negotiations. While Trump says talks may take place in Islamabad as soon as Friday, Iran has yet to state its willingness to meet. Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf, meanwhile, remained at a near standstill as Iran reinstated its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which during normal times provided passage to some 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids that make up a fifth of global supply. Prior to the U.S. blockade on Iranian maritime trade, Iranian oil was with few exceptions the one undisrupted supply source from the Gulf. Iran also briefly allowed the Strait of Hormuz to be used by all vessels after Israel, the U.S. partner in the attacks on Iran, agreed to cease for ten days incursions into Lebanon in its war against Iran-aligned Hezbollah. That ceasefire also stands on shaky ground now. The Middle East disruption to 20% of global energy supplies has led to soaring demand for U.S. crude oil and refined products. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that petroleum exports last week soared to a record-high 12.88 million barrels per day (bpd), propelled by an unprecedented 8.09 million bpd in product exports. Over the past four weeks, total petroleum exports have averaged 12.19 million bpd, 14% higher than in the same period last year. International demand for U.S. diesel, one of the fuels most affected by the current supply crisis, were over the last four weeks up more than 31% year-on-year. EIA data also showed that commercial inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel oil shrank by a combined 8 million bbl in the week ended April 17.

Oil Rises on Stalled Iran Talks and Ongoing Shipping Disruptions - The crude market traded higher on a lack of progress in Iran peace talks and as shipping on the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said the U.S. had total control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. maintaining its naval blockade of the waterway, while Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday as it remains defiant. The oil market quickly spiked higher in overnight trading to $97.22 before it just as quickly gave up some of its sharp gains. It traded to a low of $92.30 in early morning trading and settled in a sideways trading range for much of the session amid the stalled peace talks. The market later extended its gains to over $5.40 as it rallied to a high of $98.39 amid the news that air defense systems were heard engaging in parts of Tehran and reports that air defense batteries had been activated in the city. There was also reports of a power struggle in between Iran hardliners and moderates amid the resignation of Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. It later gave up some of its gains ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled up $2.89 at $95.85 and the June Brent contract settled up $3.16 at $105.07. The product markets also settled higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.03 cents at $3.9882 and the RB market settling up 10.42 cents at $3.4621.Bloomberg reported that U.S. forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean as the navy steps up its blockade of the Iran’s shipping. The Pentagon said the overnight maneuver involved the sanctioned vessel Majestic X. The ship is also known as the Phonix, a Very Large Crude Carrier able to transport 2 million barrels of oil, and industry databases show it sailing under a false flag. In addition to turning back freighters that are attempting to leave the Persian Gulf, the U.S. is blocking and boarding carriers thousands of miles from Iranian waters. At the same time, though, Iran continues to block almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil supply to the global market and jeopardizing global economic growth. Tehran continues to keep Hormuz effectively closed, preventing the passage of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil and fuel as well as other commercial traffic. As of Thursday morning, only one Iran-linked bulk carrier was observed making the transit out of the Persian Gulf, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P Global Energy has reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 bpd as the U.S.-Iran war disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East and hits demand in the second quarter. S&P Global Energy consultant, Ethan Ng, said global oil demand growth is expected to fall to 400,000 bpd versus pre-war forecast of 1.1 million bpd.According to the latest energy survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, U.S. shale executives are frustrated with the “chaos” in oil markets that has come from the Middle East conflict. U.S. oil executives expect domestic production to increase as the ongoing war in Iran upends global supplies and pushes crude and fuel prices higher. A total of 43% of survey respondents expect U.S. crude production to increase by up to 250,000 bpd this year as a result of the Iran war. About two-thirds of respondents think at least 90% of Gulf production that has been shut in will return to market eventually. When asked when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels, 20% said by next month, 39% said August, while the remaining respondents said either by November or later.Bloomberg News reported that global trading houses sold about 4 million barrels of crude from the U.S. SPR to European refiners.

Crude oil futures jump on reports of air attacks, Iran power struggle (Reuters) - Crude oil futures spiked $5 a barrel on Thursday after reports that air defenses were engaging targets over Tehran and of a power struggle between Iran's hardliners and moderates. After spiking, the benchmarks pared gains. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. Brent crude futures ‌settled at $105.07 a barrel, gaining $3.16 or 3.1%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $95.85 a barrel, up $2.89, or 3.11%. Israeli radio reported the resignation of Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, from the team speaking to the U.S. through Pakistani intermediaries about ending the war. Qalibaf's resignation was seen as a victory for hardline elements within the Iranian government. Iranian news services said air defenses in Tehran were engaging targets over the city. That followed reports of drone attacks on Iranian Kurdish opponents of the Tehran government at a base in Iraq. Iran flaunted its tightened grip over ⁠the Strait of Hormuz with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, after the collapse of peace talks that Washington had hoped would open the important shipping corridor. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had ordered the U.S. Navy "to shoot and kill any boat" mining the strait. John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital, said the market was being buffeted by alternating news reports of Trump extending the ceasefire this week and threatening to sink Iranian mine-laying ships. "Some people call it headline bingo, I call it headline roulette," Kilduff said. "I fear we're going to wake up one day and realize we're in a much worse (supply) position and prices are going to reset to a much higher level." While Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries after a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the U.S. are still restricting transit of ‌ships ⁠through the strait, which carried about 20% of daily global oil supplies until the start of the war on February 28. Trump, without providing evidence, said on Thursday the U.S. had "total control" over the strait, and that it was "sealed up tight" until Iran made a deal. Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday. Trump has maintained a U.S. Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea. However, about 10.7 million barrels of Iranian crude exports crossed through the strait and left the area blockaded by the ⁠U.S. Navy between April 13 and 21, data analytics company Vortexa said. The U.S. military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday. Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press ⁠secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said prices were constrained by confidence in the crude market. "The market continues to believe we're going to find a way through this," Flynn said. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on Thursday said a survey of 120 oil ⁠and natural gas company executives this month found 39% expect traffic through the strait to return to normal by August and 26% expect normal traffic through the waterway by November. Twenty percent of the executives surveyed between April 15 and 20 believe traffic will be normal by May, according to the Dallas Fed.

Oil Prices Spike Above $105 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Fuel Global Supply Fears — World oil prices climbed sharply on Friday, with Brent crude topping $105 per barrel and WTI hovering near $97 as stalled U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept markets on edge amid one of the most significant supply shocks in recent years. As of late morning trading on April 24, 2026, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose more than 1% to trade around $105.50-$106.14 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude gained similarly, settling near $96.50-$97.40. Both contracts have surged more than 50% year-over-year, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums that have dominated trading for weeks. The primary catalyst remains the effective closure or severe restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. Ongoing military tensions, including threats to tanker movements and reported seizures, have dramatically reduced shipments. Analysts warn that even partial normalization could take weeks or months, keeping upward pressure on prices. Standard Chartered and other banks now describe $95 per barrel as a potential new equilibrium level in the near term, with some forecasts calling for sustained highs even if flows resume partially. The price action has rippled through energy markets, lifting gasoline futures to multi-year highs and contributing to broader inflation concerns. U.S. Energy Information Administration data and industry reports show global oil supply dropped sharply in March, with OPEC+ output falling dramatically due to infrastructure attacks and export constraints. Non-OPEC production also faced headwinds, amplifying the shortfall at a time when demand remains relatively resilient despite economic uncertainties. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 demand outlook downward in its April report, now projecting a slight contraction of 80,000 barrels per day on average. However, near-term tightness from the Hormuz disruptions overrides longer-term demand softness, supporting current elevated levels. Traders monitored statements from U.S. officials indicating no immediate rush to finalize any Iran deal. President Trump's comments that an agreement would come only "when it's appropriate" added to uncertainty, preventing a meaningful pullback in risk premiums. Israel's continued threats of further action in the region compounded the volatility. On Wall Street, the energy sector outperformed as broader indices showed mixed results. Airline and consumer stocks faced pressure from higher fuel costs, while oil service companies and producers gained. The surge has also influenced currency markets, with the U.S. dollar strengthening against some emerging market currencies. Refinery margins have expanded in key regions as product prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, climbed in tandem with crude. U.S. gasoline futures hit levels not seen in years, raising concerns about summer driving season costs for American consumers. Longer-term forecasts vary widely. J.P. Morgan maintains a more bearish outlook for late 2026, projecting Brent averages near $60 if surpluses return after the current crisis eases. Others, including some IEA scenarios, see prices settling in the $75-$90 range by 2027 once supply chains normalize. OPEC+ faces difficult decisions on production. The group has already seen significant output cuts forced by events rather than voluntary restraint. Any coordinated response could further influence prices, though internal dynamics and compliance issues complicate coordination. U.S. shale producers have ramped up activity in response to higher prices, but regulatory and infrastructure constraints limit rapid response. Canadian and Brazilian output provides some offset, yet Middle East disruptions dominate the narrative. Retail fuel prices in the United States have risen steadily, with national averages for regular gasoline approaching or exceeding $4 per gallon in many regions. Analysts warn that sustained high crude could add several cents weekly at the pump, potentially influencing consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy considerations. Emerging markets, particularly those heavily dependent on imports like India and parts of Europe, face greater strain. Higher energy costs could exacerbate inflation and slow growth in vulnerable economies. China, the world's largest importer, has shown mixed demand signals amid its own economic challenges. Storage levels and tanker tracking data indicate inventory draws in key hubs, though official weekly U.S. EIA reports have shown occasional builds from strategic movements. Floating storage has increased as traders seek to capitalize on contango in futures curves. Environmental groups and renewable advocates point to the crisis as underscoring the risks of oil dependence, calling for accelerated transition policies. Conversely, industry voices argue for increased domestic production and infrastructure investment to enhance energy security. Technical analysts note Brent has broken key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for further upside if Hormuz tensions persist. Support sits around $100, with stronger floors near $90 if de-escalation news emerges. Options markets show elevated implied volatility, reflecting trader caution. As markets digest the latest developments, attention turns to upcoming diplomatic efforts and weekly inventory data. Any credible progress toward reopening the strait could trigger a sharp reversal, while prolonged closure risks pushing prices toward $110-$120 territory seen earlier in the flare-up. The current oil price environment serves as a stark reminder of geopolitics' power over commodity markets. For consumers, businesses and policymakers worldwide, the coming weeks will test resilience as elevated energy costs filter through economies already navigating inflation, growth concerns and shifting alliances. Whether this spike proves temporary or marks a new pricing regime depends heavily on resolution in the Persian Gulf. For now, the world's most vital commodity trades at a significant premium, with ripple effects likely to influence everything from household budgets to global inflation trajectories in the months ahead.

Oil Eyes Large Weekly Rise as Iran Peace Prospects Dim -- Oil and product futures edged lower Friday morning on reports of imminent U.S.-Iran peace talks after a four-day uptrend that left energy prices on track for large weekly rises amid dimming prospects for a quick end to the Middle East conflict that has caused the largest supply disruption in history. By 8:35 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was down $0.46 to $95.39 bbl and ICE Brent for June rose $0.01 to $105.08 bbl. For the week, WTI showed a 13% rise while Brent was up almost 17%. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery slipped by $0.0088 to $3.9794 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures dipped by $0.0399 to $3.4222 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated by 0.172 points to 98.43 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil futures clawed back most of the last two weeks' declines that came on the back of U.S.-Iranian peace talks and a short-lived reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian delegation was reportedly headed to Islamabad to resume negotiations with their U.S. counterparts, although recent progress in diplomacy between the two sides had been thin. While U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, April 21, extended the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, delegations from both countries failed to meet for a second round of direct talks after the U.S. instituted a naval blockade on Iranian maritime trade. Energy exports are a key revenue source for Tehran, which cited the lifting of the U.S. embargo as a precondition for further negotiations. The White House also announced Friday that the Jones Act that allows allow international tankers to transport energy and agricultural products between U.S. ports will remain in place for another three months, extending its original two-month deadline. President Trump first announced the 60-day waiver in mid-March to help stabilize energy prices by making domestic fuel shipments via tanker economically more feasible following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the breakout of the Iran war at end of February. Prior to war-generated blockades, the strait used to be the main waterway for Middle East oil shipments, carrying around 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that accounted for a fifth of global supply. The Middle East conflict has seen abrupt pivots of both escalation and calm in its near two months, with Trump announcing Thursday, April 23, that he has ordered the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill" any vessel seen attempting to lay new mines in the waterway. The president claimed that the United States had complete control over Iran's maritime trade, with U.S. armed forces reporting that 34 vessels had been stopped so far from gaining access to Iranian ports. Late on Thursday, Trump also said he was putting a three-week window to the ceasefire on Iran, after initially leaving it open indefinitely. That caused oil prices to jump after the close of regular trading hours. He reiterated his threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure should flows through the Strait of Hormuz not resume, adding "Iran has a matter of days before that takes place." Iran last weekend briefly allowed the Strait of Hormuz to be used by all vessels after Israel, the U.S. partner in the attacks on Iran, agreed to cease incursions into Lebanon in its war against Iran-aligned Hezbollah for ten days, before blockading traffic once again after the U.S. Navy ceased an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.

Oil prices end volatile session mixed but up sharply for the week on supply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices whipsawed in volatile trade on Friday, but were ‌higher on the week, as traders weighed supply disruptions against the potential restart of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran that could help limit those disruptions. Brent crude futures settled at $105.33 a barrel, rising 26 cents, or about 0.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $94.40 a barrel, falling $1.45, or 1.5%. For the week, Brent gained about 16% and WTI rose nearly 13%. Crude futures gave back early gains after Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive ⁠in Islamabad late on Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the U.S. after talks collapsed earlier this week. Prices fell further after CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump was sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran's foreign minister. Later, Trump told Reuters that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands. "They're making an offer and we'll have to see," Trump said. Early in the session, prices rose 2% on fears of renewed military escalation in the region, the day after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and as progress stalled on re-opening the vital waterway. "Traders are liquidating length ahead of an unusually unpredictable weekend and will readjust their positions Sunday ‌night based ⁠on Iranian developments," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about a fifth of global oil output, remains effectively blocked. Iran's capture of two cargo ships highlighted Washington's difficulties in trying to control the passage. Only five ships, including an Iranian oil products tanker, have moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed. On Thursday, U.S. ⁠President Donald Trump said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during a two-week ceasefire, but added that the U.S. military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks. "As tensions ⁠have heightened this week since no meeting between the U.S. and Iran developed, an open-ended ceasefire will likely coincide with a continued conflict," said oil consultant Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates. "This favors even higher prices especially in Brent and diesel, the ⁠more sensitive markets to a continuation of this war." Haitong Futures said in a report that if peace talks fail to make progress by the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year.

IEA’s Birol Says Iran War Will Permanently Cut Into Future Oil Demand -- International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol says the Iran war has permanently changed the fossil fuel industry and will accelerate a shift toward renewables, nuclear power and electrification at the expense of oil demand. That is a bold claim in the middle of an oil crisis that has Brent trading above $105 a barrel and physical supply still constrained.Birol told The Guardian that the damage to confidence in fossil fuel security is permanent, and that countries exposed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption will rethink how much geopolitical risk they are willing to embed in their energy systems.“Their perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,” Birol told the Guardian, adding that this shift will “cut into the main markets for oil,” resulting in “permanent consequences for the global energy markets…”Birol also cautioned the UK over its North Sea drilling campaign plans, which, he said, would not provide any immediate benefit. In fact, Birol points out, it would not offer any significant amount of oil and gas for many years and would “not make any significant difference to this crisis,” except, of course, for tiebacks. The message to the UK, is that any oil and gas expansion “might not make business sense.” Meanwhile, JPMorgan has argued prices may need to rise further to force additional demand destruction. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil production is down 57% from pre-war levels. Those are shortage signals, not evidence of a fossil fuel system in retreat.The current crisis is “bigger than all the biggest crises combined,” Birol said, chastising the world for being so “blind-sided” as to allow the global economy to be “hostage to a 50km strait.”

Goldman Sachs Sees Rapid Oil Output Recovery if Iran War Ends -- Crude oil production recovery to pre-war levels could take just a few months, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding a note of caution that recovery could also take longer than that. The bank estimates lost production in the Middle East at 14.5 million barrels daily as of this month. However, most of that is the result not of physical damage to fields but of precautionary well shut-in and “stock management”, the analysts noted, as quoted by Reuters. However, it bears noting that the amount of lost production represents over half of the Middle East’s total pre-war production rate, or 57%, to be more precise. If Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the hostilities end, these 14.5 million barrels daily could return relatively quickly, Goldman said. The bank’s analysts cited spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as helping the faster resumption of pre-war production. The chances of a final end to the war, however, are at the moment rather remote, with negotiations at a stalemate and the Strait closed, even though the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was extended earlier this week. If the war drags on, oil production recovery would take considerably longer, not least because the longer oil wells remain shut in, the longer it takes to restart production. Long shut-ins lead to a decline in flow rates, and production recovery requires a more complex and time-consuming process. There is also the issue of storage capacity, which has dropped by about half, or 130 million barrels, Reuters noted in its report. This would affect the speed of moving oil from the field to export terminals, one exports restart—whenever this might happen. The investment bank cited other forecasters as predicting that some 70% of the oil production that was lost as a result of the war could resume within three months of the end of hostilities. Another 88% see a less optimistic period of six months for the return of the bulk of pre-war barrels.

The Strait of Hormuz May Reopen, But the System Has Already Broken -- The market will panic when the Strait of Hormuz closes. When it reopens, policymakers will all feel relieved. At present, we are all witnessing this in real time, but reality is definitely the opposite. The latest data coming out in April 2026 should put an end to that illusion. Even after repeated announcements by Iran and the USA that Hormuz was “open,” real-time, actual maritime traffic only shows evidence of a near collapse. Markets are still struggling to get to grips with the fact that, during the opening of Hormuz, vessel traffic levels are still extremely low, sometimes as low as three vessels per day, compared to well over 120–140 in normal conditions. The lesson to be taken into account is no longer theoretical. The reopening of a chokepoint, such as Hormuz or Bab El Mandab, does not restore a system. It merely exposes how deeply it has already been broken.Markets and policymakers should look at the precedent already set in the Bab El-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Despite intermittent stabilization efforts, traffic through the Red Sea corridor remains structurally depressed, even after years of reopening, with Suez throughput still far below pre-crisis levels. It has become clear that incentives such as transit fee discounts are widely failing to bring vessels back. The Houthis did not need to close the corridor permanently; they needed to make it all unreliable. That alone was enough to rewire global shipping behavior.Hormuz is now following the same trajectory, but this time at a far greater scale.The hard data is unequivocal. Maritime traffic through Hormuz has at times fallen by 90% or more, with entire fleets idling outside the Strait rather than risk transit. At the same time, most attention is focused on hydrocarbon exports, as oil exports from core Gulf producers have dropped by over 60%, while millions of barrels have been pushed into floating storage. Traffic has effectively fallen to zero, especially during peak disruption periods. Hundreds of vessels are still waiting in the Gulf of Oman and beyond. No reversal of this dynamic has been witnessed even during brief reopenings. Tankers turn back. Shipping lines refuse bookings. Insurance markets remain restrictive.The core issue is trust, not just a closure. Recognizing this helps policymakers and industry leaders feel the gravity and urgency of restoring confidence.There needs to be an understanding that shipping is not governed by physical access alone, but by risk perception. Once that perception shifts, as is now the case in Hormuz, the system behaves differently. The withdrawal of war-risk insurance in early March effectively shut down commercial navigation, regardless of whether the Strait was technically open. Even now, when some parties have stated that the strait has been partially reopened at certain times, major operators still refuse to transit. In some cases, none of the world’s top shipping companies are willing to take cargo through the Strait.That behavioral shift is the real story. And this confirms and substantiates what we have already seen in the Red Sea.The consequences are structural, as evidenced by global trade rerouting on a scale. The Cape of Good Hope has become the default alternative for Asia–Europe flows, adding 10–14 days and thousands of nautical miles to voyages. All parties should realize that this is no longer a temporary detour but is already embedded in network design. Shipping lines are recalibrating schedules, redeploying fleets, and locking in new routing strategies that assume chokepoint instability as a baseline.The implications for energy markets are and will increasingly become profound. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Its disruption has already triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply shock in modern oil market history. Hydrocarbon prices have surged, while total exports have collapsed. Supply chains have seized up. The longer-term impact will not only be scarcity, but fragmentation.

Houthis Threaten to Block Red Sea Oil Exports as Iran War Escalates - As tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, the Iran-aligned Houthis threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key oil shipping lane still open for crude shipments from the Middle East via ports on the Red Sea.“If Sana’a decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn will be utterly powerless to open it,” Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Ezzi posted on X, as quoted by media.“And therefore, it is best for Trump – and the complicit world – to immediately end all practices and policies that obstruct peace, and to show the respect required for the rights of our people and nation,” the senior Houthi official said.Tensions in the Middle East subsided only for a few hours on Friday when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open, only to announce on Saturday that it is closed again, due to the continued U.S. naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz targeting to choke off Iranian oil exports.After sinking 10% on Friday, oil prices rebounded early on Monday as traffic through the world’s most vital chokepoint remains severely restricted and the U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel it accused of attempting to break its blockade.The seizure reignited fears of a major escalation in the conflict and a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.All those market participants who had bet on Friday on a quick resolution to the crisis have now started to recalibrate their expectations.“Developments over the weekend suggest the thaw has been short-lived, with Brent opening stronger this morning. Iran reimposed its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US kept its blockade in place,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Mathey said in a Monday note.“After the US seized an Iranian-flagged vessel, there will be doubts over planned peace talks,” they added. The Houthi threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would cut off the oil exports from Saudi Arabia, which had moved all the shipments it could to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea amid the closed Strait of Hormuz.

How Red Sea closure would cripple global economy and end Western sea hegemony - The closure – or even any serious and persistent danger of closure – of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the event of the US escalation will have devastating and far-reaching consequences for the global geopolitical and economic affairs. It could disable supply chains across the world in a short span of time, while permanently and irreversibly shifting the economic, logistical, and maritime power equations. This small but crucial waterway – the direct entry point to the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and finally the Mediterranean Sea – has, under normal circumstances, been the epicenter of global commerce. Through it, vast volumes of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, containerized freight, industrial raw materials, and consumer goods flow between Asia and Europe and back. Any interruption of this route will force commercial ships to round the entire African continent via the Cape of Good Hope. This much longer, more costly, and dangerous alternative adds at least 10-14 days to voyage time, consumes up to 42 percent more fuel per container ship, and effectively reduces the capacity of the global shipping fleet by about 9 percent. According to the latest reporting by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the first half of 2025, an estimated 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait each day. That figure represents roughly 5 to 6 percent of the total seaborne oil trade worldwide. Although this marks a significant decline from the 2023 peak of 9.3 million barrels per day, the strait remains one of the world's biggest energy bottlenecks. Projections for this year paint a concerning picture. Global seaborne trade growth in 2025 was projected at only 0.5 percent, a slowdown attributed to persistent disruptions in the Red Sea. These figures make it clear that a Red Sea shutdown is not a passing logistical crisis of a day or two. Rather, it represents a structural shock to the entire global economy, one that will bring chronic inflation, supply chain stagnation, rising production costs, and ultimately a fundamental redefinition of trade routes and geopolitical dynamics. Under the simultaneous impact of military and economic pressures, this trajectory points toward a more multipolar and resilient global order. Geographically and operationally, the most critical choke point is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, just 18 nautical miles (approximately 33 kilometers) wide. Before the recent crises, thousands of large commercial ships passed through it during a normal day, at a rate of up to 1,200 vessels per month, according to figures from Lloyd's List and IMF PortWatch. Sealing this strait, along with the Suez Canal, whose traffic according to the Suez Canal Authority had decreased by 2025 to about 12,758 vessels with a net tonnage of 522 million tons, would effectively force shipping onto a detour of an extra 5,500 to 11,000 kilometers. This not only dramatically drives up fuel prices but also creates unprecedented congestion and delays in Mediterranean ports such as Barcelona, Tangier Med, and even Rotterdam. Reports from the World Bank and UNCTAD indicate that even small disruptions between 2023 and 2025 caused reductions in Red Sea traffic of up to 70 percent and in Suez Canal traffic of up to 60 percent. The situation worsened further in 2025, with an additional 50 percent drop in container transportation through the Suez Canal – down to just 5.46 million TEU. When this route is entirely closed under such conditions, the world economy – 85 percent of whose trade moves by sea – would find itself effectively at a deadlock. Reliance on alternative routes like the Cape of Good Hope would become an irreparable and expensive habit, permanently fixing logistics expenses at a higher level and destroying the so-called "just-in-time" supply chains that form the very core of global industrial and commercial production.

Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships trying to pass (AP) — The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated again Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation after the United States pressed ahead with its blockade of Iranian ports.The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said Saturday night, warning that “no vessel should make any movement from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as cooperation with the enemy” and be targeted.New attacks on the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, threatened to deepen the global energy crisis and push the countries into renewed conflict as the war entered its eighth weekA fragile ceasefire is due to run out by Wednesday. Iran said it had received new proposals from the United States, and Pakistani mediators were working to arrange another round of direct negotiations.Iran’s joint military command earlier said “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state ... under strict management and control of the armed forces.”Revolutionary Guard gunboats opened fire on a tanker and an unknown projectile hit a container vessel, damaging some containers, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. India’s foreign ministry said it summoned Iran’s ambassador over the “serious incident” of firing on two India-flagged merchant ships, especially after Iran earlier let several India-bound ships through.For Iran, the strait’s closure — imposed after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28 during talks over Tehran’s nuclear program — is perhaps its most powerful weapon, threatening the world economy and inflicting political pain on President Donald Trump. For the United States, the blockade keeps up pressure and could strangle Iran’s already weakened economy.Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued defiant remarks on Saturday, saying the navy stands “ready to inflict bitter defeats on its enemies.” He has not been seen in public since being elevated to the post following his father’s death in Israel’s opening barrage.On Friday, Iran announced the strait’s reopening to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was announced between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The reopening caused oil prices to fall. Trump, however, said the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the United States. Trump had imposed the blockade after a round of historic face-to-face talks in Pakistan between the countries ended without an agreement.U.S. forces have sent 23 ships back to Iran since the blockade began on Monday, U.S. Central Command said Saturday. Trump’s comments triggered an outcry.“Americans are risking the international community, risking the global economy through these, I can say, miscalculations,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told The Associated Press, adding that the U.S. is “risking the whole ceasefire package.”

Distress call captures Indian tanker crew under Iranian fire in Strait of Hormuz -A distress call captured Saturday details a crewmember on an Indian ship pleading with Iranian forces as his vessel comes under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.“Sepah Navy,” the crewmember said, referring to a special unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy. “Motor Tanker Sanmar Herald. Sanmar Herald. Sepah Navy. You gave me clearance. You gave me clearance to go.”The 33-second audio clip of the call was shared by TankerTrackers.com on the social platform X. “Sepah Navy. Sepah Navy. This is motor tanker Sanmar Herald. You gave me clearance to go,” the crewmember continued. “My name [is] second on your list. You gave me clearance to go. You are firing now. Let me turn back.” The Indian ship was one of two vessels bearing that country’s flag that came under fire by the IRGC Navy on Saturday. The U.K. Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO) office reported that two IRGC gun boats fired on a tanker roughly 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, while an unknown projectile hit a container ship roughly 25 nautical miles from Oman. After the first incident, the UKMTO reported that the tanker and crew were safe, while the office said the projectile that hit the latter ship caused damage to “some” of the containers the ship was carrying but did not result in fires or environmental impact.The Indian Ministry of External Affairs wrote in a Saturday statement that it summoned Iranian Ambassador to India Mohammad Fathali for a meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.During that meeting, Misri “conveyed India’s deep concern” about the incidents and “noted the importance that India attached to the safety of merchant shipping and mariners and recalled that Iran had earlier facilitated the safe passage of several ships” headed for India. “Reiterating his concern at this serious incident of firing on merchant ships, [Misri] urged the Ambassador to convey India’s views to the authorities in Iran and resume at the earliest the process of facilitating India-bound ships across the Strait,” the statement continued. “The Ambassador of Iran undertook to convey these views to the Iranian authorities.”Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, the IRGC has restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which is bordered by Iran and Oman, but considered an international waterway ships can pass through, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. That has resulted in oil prices skyrocketing, with drivers in the U.S. seeing a rise in prices at the pump. In response to the IRGC’s actions, the U.S. Navy began blockading the chokepoint last Monday. American forces also intercepted an Iranian-flagged ship seeking to bypass that blockade on Sunday.

Gunboat diplomacy ramps up in Hormuz Strait, endangering shaky ceasefire - While the U.S., Iran and Israel have largely halted the barrage of missile, bomb and drone strikes that defined the first month of the war, a tit-for-tat battle is escalating at sea. The U.S. military and Iran both seized tankers in international waters this week, and Tehran struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump threatened further escalation on Thursday, ordering the Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that are placing mines in the strait, a vital shipping lane that carries about one-fifth of all global crude oil in peacetime. The gunboat diplomacy threatens to undermine a ceasefire that has largely held on land, potentially escalating a conflict that has already caused a global energy crisis, experts say. “This is sort of this test of wills,” said Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The U.S. isn’t carrying out airstrikes in Iran like it was. It is moving to the seas as a means of being able to exert some level of pressure. Iran has done so the same way.” He added: “We have what is really a ceasefire mostly in name.” The Strait of Hormuz is currently under a so-called double-blockade, with Iran threatening ships from unfriendly nations and Washington turning back most Iran-linked vessels. Trump on Tuesday extended the ceasefire indefinitely to give Tehran time to come to the negotiating table with a peace proposal but said the U.S. would maintain the status quo at sea. The conflict is soon to enter its ninth week, surpassing Trump’s original timeline of four to six weeks. While Washington waits, the U.S. military seized at least three tankers carrying oil from Iran, including one in the Indian Ocean overnight on Wednesday, and the officials said American forces have directed 31 vessels “to turn around or return to port” as part of the blockade. “We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” according to a Pentagon post to social media, which showed American forces boarding the M/T Majestic X. The Defense Department has described the tanker as a “sanctioned, stateless vessel.” Trump also has ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” that is placing mines in the strait. “There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now,” the president wrote on his Truth Social platform. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in turn, has fired on ships to prevent them from sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, attacking three ships in the waterway and seizing two of them Wednesday. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and a senior defense adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. pressure campaign could pay off by pushing Iran to make a better deal for Washington. But the strategy also might backfire and harden Iran’s position. “Revolutionary Guards might become more kinetic. They might start shooting at the ships in the Persian Gulf, for example, those ships there, they’re all stationary, and they’re all very easy to hit,” Cancian told The Hill. “So it’s a gamble. … You could get what you want, but on the other hand, the other side could react in ways that are very unfavorable.” He said the U.S. could expand its seizure effort and “track down every Iranian anchor that is outside of the Persian Gulf — and there are dozens of them — as a way to put pressure on Iran.” Such an idea was floated by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Wednesday, when he wrote on the social platform X that he expects the U.S. blockade “will be growing and that it could become global soon.” But the strait’s closure and subsequent U.S. blockade has further strained global energy resources, with International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol on Thursday telling CNBC that the world is “facing the biggest energy security threat in history.”

Iran has new surprises ready for potential resumption of war: Report - Iran has fully prepared for the possible resumption of war as the ceasefire deadline approaches, with new surprises ready for any new round of imposed war, the Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources. According to the report, the US naval blockade announcements and Washington’s excessive demands have prevented the formation of new negotiations as the agreed ceasefire period nears its end. “Iran is fully prepared for the possibility of a new war and has prepared new surprises for a potential new round of combat,” the report said. The sources told Tasnim that over the past two weeks, Iran has taken the possibility of renewed war seriously. “Accordingly, some military movements and new target lists have been prepared for this purpose,” the report added. Iran is ready to create “another hell” for Americans and Israelis from the very beginning of any potential new war, the sources said. The United States and Israel launched their unprovoked, illegal war of aggression against Iran on February 28, assassinating the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and striking nuclear facilities, schools, hospitals and bridges, along other civilian sites. Iran’s armed forces responded with 100 waves of decisive retaliatory strikes under Operation True Promise 4, launching hundreds of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as drones, against American military bases across West Asia and Israeli positions throughout the occupied territories. A two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, took effect following the intense 40-day war. However, tensions have remained high. The United States has declared plans for a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a move Tehran has condemned as provocative and a violation of the ceasefire.

Iran's military warns US, Israel about an even harsher lesson' - Iran's highest operational command unit has again strongly warned the US and the Israeli regime against any instance of aggression targeting the Islamic Republic, saying the country's retaliation to such transgression would "immediately" strike pre-determined targets. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is responsible for coordinating operations between the country's Army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), delivered the remarks in a statement on Tuesday. "Our capable and powerful forces have been at full readiness for a long time and are on trigger," spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari noted. "In the event of any aggression or action against the Islamic Republic, they will immediately strike pre-determined targets with full force and face the aggressor America and the child-killing Zionist regime with an even harsher lesson than before," he added. The warning, the spokesman stated, had come "in view of the repeated threats from the US president and the commanders of that country’s aggressive and terrorist military." On April 7, President Donald Trump announced a two-week lull in the unprovoked aggression that the United States had launched together with the Israeli regime against Iran 40 days before. The announcement followed at least 100 waves of determined and successful retaliation by Iran's Armed Forces against numerous strategic and sensitive American and Israeli targets across the region. Talks went ahead subsequently in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, but stopped short of yielding a deal amid the US's maximalist demands and its refusal to abandon its unreasonable positions. Further talks were expected to take place, but the Islamic Republic said it would not rejoin the process unless Washington lifted an illegal blockade it had imposed against Iranian vessels and ports. On Monday, Trump threatened Iran with "overwhelming military force," saying "lots of bombs [will] start going off" in the absence of a deal resulting from talks between the two sides. Also on Tuesday, though, the US president announced extension of the ceasefire after the Islamic Republic retained its stance.

IRIB poll: Vast majority of Iranians reject curbs on missiles, uranium, and Strait of Hormuz control - In the wake of the 40-day war imposed by the US-Israeli coalition against Iran, a nationwide survey by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Research Center has revealed unwavering support for the country’s armed forces, national unity, and a firm resolve to maintain the country's missile and defensive capabilities. The survey, which polled thousands of Iranians across the country during and immediately after the imposed war, found that an overwhelming majority of respondents said Iran should not accept US maximalist demands for an agreement and a permanent end to the war. An overwhelming majority of Iranians believe the country should reject any deal that would impose restrictions on its missile industry, require the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, mandate a shutdown of uranium enrichment, allow unrestricted ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, or demand an end to cooperation with the Resistance Front. The unprovoked war was launched on February 28 with the assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, top military commanders, and ordinary citizens, including nearly 170 schoolchildren in southern Iran’s Minab city. The aggression, launched to decapitate Iranian leadership and cripple the nation’s defensive capabilities, instead exposed the fragility of American power projection when confronted by sophisticated Iranian military technology and the unified front of the Axis of Resistance. After 40 days of aggression, the United States accepted Iran’s comprehensive 10-point proposal as the foundation for a permanent ceasefire, which led to talks in Islamabad. While the US ultimately breached the ceasefire, leading to a stalemate in talks, Iran maintains that the dynamics have changed and it is the US that must give concessions now. Rejection of concessions on missile program, nuclear rights On potential conditions for permanently ending the imposed war, survey respondents delivered an unmistakable message of resilience and defiance. The survey asked respondents whether Iran should accept various US maximalist demands for an agreement and a permanent end to the war. The results were decisive:

85.7 percent said Iran should not accept restrictions on the missile industry.
82.6 percent said Iran should not accept the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium from the country.
79.4 percent said Iran should not accept shutting down uranium enrichment.
73.7 percent said Iran should not accept unrestricted passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
68.1 percent said Iran should not accept severing cooperation with the Resistance Front.

Analysts cited in the report described these findings as a revelation of "strategic maturity" in the deep layers of Iranian society following the unprovoked and illegal war of aggression. While war pressure typically drives societies toward "peace at any price," the decisive opposition to missile industry restrictions and the strong stand on nuclear rights indicate the complete failure of the "pressure for submission" doctrine. Iranian society views national power tools not as commodities for bargaining but as "symbols of honor and independence," the survey report states. The people of Iran have established a direct connection between "possessing power" and "civilizational survival," considering any retreat from the indigenous defensive missile industry as equivalent to opening the gates to wider aggressions

IRGC Announces Seizure of Two Vessels, One Linked to Israel, in Hormuz - Palestine Chronicle - Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy announced on Wednesday it had intercepted two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and transferred them to Iranian territorial waters as part of ongoing maritime security operations. In a statement cited by Tasnim news agency and Al-Jazeera, the IRGC said the ships—identified as MSC Francesca and Epaminodes—were operating without authorization and repeatedly violating maritime regulations. The statement added that the vessels tampered with navigation systems in a way that endangered maritime safety and attempted to exit the strait covertly before being intercepted. One of the vessels, MSC Francesca, was described as being linked to Israel. The IRGC said both ships have been transferred to Iranian waters for inspection of their cargo, documents, and operational records. In a related development, a third commercial vessel—identified as Euphoria—was targeted after attempting to cross the strait in violation of Iranian regulations, according to Fars news agency. The vessel is now reportedly stranded off the Iranian coast. Iranian media said the interception and targeting operations are part of what officials describe as “smart control” of the Strait of Hormuz, amid heightened tensions with the United States. The IRGC Navy stressed that any violation of Iran’s declared navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with firm action. It said forces will “deal legally and firmly with any movements or actions that violate Iranian laws regulating navigation,” emphasizing that maritime security in the strategic waterway is a “red line.” The statement underscored that all vessel movements in the strait are being closely monitored. The developments come amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following a US-imposed naval blockade and recent confrontations involving Iranian and US-linked vessels. Iran had previously reclosed the strait after briefly reopening it, in protest against continued US restrictions. The incidents also follow a fragile ceasefire announced on April 8, brokered by Pakistan, which remains under strain as both sides continue military and maritime maneuvers.

Iran Eases Strait of Hormuz Transit Rules for Russia - Iran has granted exemptions to certain friendly countries, including Russia, from transit tolls imposed on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow said. Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali told RIA Novosti that Tehran is currently applying special provisions for friendly nations, allowing them to benefit from exceptions to newly introduced transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted, however, that it remains unclear whether the policy will continue in the future. According to the envoy, Iran’s Foreign Ministry is working to implement the exemptions as part of broader efforts to maintain cooperation with allied countries. Iran recently announced plans to impose tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, citing the need to cover rising security costs. Iranian lawmakers said the fees would vary depending on the type and volume of cargo as well as associated risks. Iran began collecting such revenues for the first time this week. The move comes amid heightened tensions following a stalled diplomatic track between Iran and the United States. Despite a previously announced two-week ceasefire, negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough. Washington subsequently declared a blockade of Iranian ports, stating it would only be lifted after an agreement is reached. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and suspended further engagement with the US. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, saying it would remain in place until Tehran presents a settlement proposal and talks resume.

Iran deploys more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, sources say - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the issue. The military standoff in the world's most important oil chokepoint is escalating, with Iran laying mines and attacking commercial ships on one side and the U.S. tightening its naval blockade on the other. After being briefed on the new developments, President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy on Truth Social on Thursday to "shoot and kill" any Iranian boats laying mines with "no hesitation."New mines in the strait could deepen what the International Energy Agency has already called the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market — bigger than the 1970s oil shocks.Roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the strait in peacetime. Traffic has collapsed to single digits on most days, down from more than 100 ships daily. This is the second time Iran has mined the strait since the war began. It remains unclear whether all the mines from the first round have been found and cleared. The U.S. military detected the Iranian mine-laying operation and has been tracking it closely, the sources said.The U.S. official said the U.S. knows how many new mines Iran has deployed but declined to provide the number. Before this apparent uptick, experts estimated that fewer than 100 mines had been deployed by Iran. The White House declined to comment on intelligence matters. At the war's start, U.S. officials estimated they had destroyed more than 90% of Iran's large mine-laying vessels and mine-storage warehouses, but believed the armed forces still had in stashes along the coast.The mines can be relatively easy to lay for Iranians piloting small fishing-boat-sized Gashti vessels, which can each carry two to four mines and drop them in the strait. Iran still has scores of those vessels, which can be equipped with rocket launchers and mounted machine guns to interdict large tankers. The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and its strike group arrived Thursday in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. It will be the third U.S. aircraft carrier in the region — tightening the naval blockade on Iran and giving Trump more military options if he decides to resume the war, sources said. CENTCOM said Thursday it has redirected 33 vessels since the blockade began. U.S. officials say the Navy is operating underwater drones in the Strait of Hormuz for mine-clearing operations Trump's Thursday announcement also indicated that two mine countermeasure vessels, the USS Chief and the USS Pioneer, may also be operating in the Strait. The effort could also involve special mine-hunting helicopters and surveillance aircraft, although experts caution that the strait is a narrow and perilous waterway due to the threat of Iranian attacks. Trump said he ordered that operation "to continue, but at a tripled up level!"

Pentagon says it will take months to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, AP source says - The Pentagon told lawmakers this week it will likely take six months to clear the mines set in the strait, according to a person familiar with the situation who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.Officials from the Department of Defense delivered the information during a classified briefing at the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.The session left more questions than answers as lawmakers probed for information about the cost of the war against Iran, the strategy and objectives, the person said. The lawmakers also raised questions that have still gone unanswered about the strike on a school compound during the early days of the war.

Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year - Outgoing Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said clearing the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could take far longer than investors expect. “Some scenario planning that we did said that even if the straits were to reopen today, just to clear the logistics logjam… is going to take 275 days, maybe more now,” he told Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” on Thursday. The Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down in early March at the onset of the Iran war, triggering a major bottleneck in global energy and petrochemical flows. Fitterling said the path back to normal will be slow and operationally complex. “You’ve got to get empty ships back. We’ve got to clean out the strait and the Arabian Gulf. We’ve got to get empty ships back in,” said Fitterling, who is retiring on July 1 as Dow’s chief executive after an eight-year run. “This is not going to be in a month or two. This is going to be several quarters before you’re going to see things return to normal.” The initial shock was significant for the petrochemical market, in which Dow is one of the leading players. “When the Strait of Hormuz shut down, 20% of global oil capacity was shut in, but about 50% of global ethylene and polyethylene production was impacted,” Fitterling said, referencing two key inputs used to create plastic products used in everyday life. He added that the chokepoint is critical to petrochemical supply chains, noting that about 40% of the naphtha used in Asian and European production flows through the strait, tightening supply almost immediately. Derived from crude oil, naphtha is a key ingredient to produce plastics and other chemicals. That imbalance has driven a sharp pricing surge. “We saw a 10 cent-per-pound increase in March, and we’ve got another 30 cents in April, and another 20 cents out there in May,” he said. “We haven’t seen this kind of an uplift in prices for well more than a decade.” The pricing tailwind helped support Dow’s latest results, with the company reporting solid revenue and a smaller-than-expected loss in its first-quarter report released April 23. Shares have surged roughly 65% this year.

Israel's Yellow Line Claims Valuable Off-Shore Lebanese Gas Field - - Israeli forces continue to be active south of the Yellow Line established last week in Lebanon, destroying villages and building up a command structure to support an open ended military occupation of that territory.The IDF is said to envision not only occupying the southern-most “buffer zone” inside Lebanon, but also to create what Israeli planners call a “hunting and pursuit zone” between the Yellow Line and the Litani and Awali River, whereby they would continue operating with impunity.Further complicating matters, Israel’s Yellow Line is not a straight line by any means, and gets decidedly angled when one reaches the Mediterranean Sea. There’s a method to this line, which cuts deep into Lebanon’s territorial waters. This puts the economically important Qana gas field wholly within the “buffer zone,” putting the site, estimated to be worth $20-$40 billion dollars, wholly out of Lebanon’s reach and under the operational control of the Israelis. Israel and Lebanon has a maritime dispute over multiple offshore gas fields that spanned each of their claimed maritime borders. In 2022, the two nations reached an agreement whereby Israel would have full control of the Karish field, whereas Lebanon would have control of the further north Qana field, though with the caveat that Israel was entitled to royalties on parts of the field because previously some Israeli maps angled the border line enough that those parts could be claimed by Israel.The Yellow Line now effectively makes the Qana field off-limits to Lebanon, and part of the Israeli-occupied buffer zone. While not as immediately impactful of the dozens of villages the IDF intends to levels in the zone are, the loss of Qana could do substantial economic harm to Lebanon in the long-term.

Displaced Lebanese Again Warned Not to Return to Israeli-Occupied South - While the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is holding across most of the country, the far south area of Lebanon occupied by Israel continues to see some limited fighting, and a massive amount of destruction as the systematic destruction of towns and villages by Israeli forces continues.Israel would just as soon the population of displaced civilians who lived there stay out of the way why they continue leveling their homes to create a military “buffer zone,” and has warned residents of over 50 municipalities in Lebanon to just not attempt to return home.IDF spokesman Avichay Adraee said residents shouldn’t attempt to return to 58 towns and villages that fall south of the Israeli-imposed “Yellow Line,” and also added that they shouldn’t attempt to approach the Litani River at all.The Litani River aspect is substantial, because Israeli officials had presented their intention earlier in the war to occupy the entire nation south of the river, and during the war destroyed every single bridge spanning that river. Defense Minister Israel Katz bragged that many hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from south of the river, and would not be allowed to return, though by the time the current ceasefire was reached, Israel had only captured a fraction of that territory.An estimated 1.2 million Lebanese were displaced in the course of the war, while a lot of the territory they were expelled from was as yet not occupied by the Israeli military. Whether those people can safely return either is uncertain though because it’s not clear the ceasefire will hold.Even with the ceasefire in effect, Israel is still reporting some strikes, like a claim of destroying a rocket launcher near Kfar Kela. Even though the IDF noted that the launcher was north of the “forward defense line (which is to say Yellow Line)” they justified attacking it for posing an “immediate threat” to occupation forces still within Lebanon. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri reported that the US is pushing for the two sides to extend the 10-day ceasefire, and the US is reporting additional talks will be held on Thursday, according to the State Department.

Israeli Troops Say Mass Looting of Occupied Southern Lebanon ‘Routine’ - South of the newly-established Yellow Line, Israel has established de facto military occupation of over 50 Lebanese municipalities, and has been demolishing homes and preventing the return to displaced locals. The destruction goes deeper than that, however.A new report from Israel’s Haaretz quotes numerous Israeli soldiers within southern Lebanon saying that the looting of civilian property from homes in the area has become “wide-spread” and “routine” and that commanders are making no serious effort to try to prevent it.Soldiers cited troops taking motorcycles, televisions, even sofas, out of private homes and loading them on military vehicles and bringing them back across the border into Israel. “Everyone sees it and understands it” one was quoted as saying. Though the IDF responded to the Haaretz report by claiming that it conducts inspections at the border and takes disciplinary action when necessary, the soldiers suggested that virtually never happens. Indeed, only some of the border crossings even have checkpoints in which to inspect looted cargo in the first place. At most, some commanders tell their soldiers to “stop looting” but have taken no action to really enforce that order. Others simply let it go.“When there is no punishment, the message is obvious,” one of the soldiers added. Another said he thought if military police jailed anyone for the looting it would stop pretty quickly. So far the indication is that’s not happening.Other soldiers suggested that the reason looting is happening with such impunity is that the IDF is engaged in wiping out many of those towns and villages, and the sense is “What difference does it make if I take it? It’s going to be destroyed anyway.” Mass looting was similarly reported in Gaza, according to Haaretz, and in the course of that, only one indictment ever happened, which was ultimately settled with a plea deal.

Outcry grows over Israeli soldier smashing Jesus statue in Lebanon | Al Jazeera --A photo of an Israeli soldier smashing a statue of Jesus Christ in Lebanon has sparked outrage in the United States, adding to the anger Israel is facing, including from parts of US President Donald Trump’s base. Although the incident is only one among a broad range of atrocities that Israel is accused of committing in the region in recent years, it garnered condemnations across the world and prompted a response from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the US, where support for Israel was once unchallenged – especially in right-wing circles that purport to espouse Christian values – the desecration of the Christian religious symbol added fuel to the criticism that the Israeli government is facing from some Republicans.“You would never know it by consuming American corporate media, but this kind of incident is not rare,” said right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson, a former Trump ally.“The Israeli government has permitted its soldiers to behave like barbarians for decades, all while sucking up generous funding from the United States. The only difference between now and the past is that social media has exposed Israel’s behavior for the world to see,” Carlson wrote in his newsletter on Monday.Former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – who fell out with Trump over his hawkish foreign policy – highlighted that Israel receives billions of dollars in US military aid annually. “‘Our greatest ally’ that takes billions of our tax dollars and weapons every year,” she wrote in a comment on X in response to the photo showing an Israeli soldier taking a sledgehammer to the head of the statue of Jesus. Matt Gaetz, another former Republican congressman and Trump ally, said, “Horrific”. For his part, independent journalist Glenn Greenwald mocked how Christian Zionists may defend Israel over smashing the statue. “Christian Zionists: This Israeli soldier was absolutely justified in smashing the head of the Jesus Christ statue because Hezbollah and Hamas were hiding inside. We owe him our gratitude,” Greenwald wrote on X.The anger echoed growing scepticism of the close alliance with Israel in Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) constituency.Trump is already facing pressure over joining Israel in starting a war against Iran, which sent oil prices soaring. Earlier on Monday, the US president addressed and denied claims that Netanyahu dragged the US into the conflict. Support for Israel in the US is at a historic low, recent public opinion polls show. While Israel still enjoys near-unanimous Republican support in Congress, that consensus is starting to fray, with dissent being expressed by the likes of Carlson, in part due to prolonged wars in the Middle East and attacks on Christians.The desecration of the statue, which took place near the town of Debl in south Lebanon, according to local reports, prompted an unusually swift response from the highest level of the Israeli government.“I condemn the act in the strongest terms. Military authorities are conducting a criminal probe of the matter and will take appropriately harsh disciplinary action against the offender,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Sunday.Israel rarely holds its soldiers accountable for well-documented abuses in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon, including sexual violence.Netanyahu, who has been evading an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over war crimes charges in Gaza since 2024, went on to argue that Israel treats Christians better than any other country in the region.“While Christians are being slaughtered in Syria and Lebanon by Muslims, the Christian population in Israel thrives unlike elsewhere in the Middle East,” the Israeli prime minister claimed. “Israel is the only country in the region that the Christian population and standard of living is growing.” Lebanon has the largest per capita Christian population in the Middle East, and its president is a Maronite Catholic. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar joined Netanyahu in denouncing the desecration of the statue, saying that it is “entirely contrary” to Israeli values.But while Israel’s supporters tried to portray smashing the statue as an isolated mistake by one soldier, the incident reflects a pattern of Israeli attacks against houses of worship, including churches. An Israeli tank demolished a statue of Saint George in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun last year. Israel has bombed Palestinian churches several times in Gaza since the start of its genocidal war in the enclave, including an attack that killed at least 18 people in 2023. Israel destroyed more than 1,000 mosques and three churches in Gaza during the war, according to local officials.The Assembly of Catholic Ordinaries of the Holy Land denounced the attack on the statue on Monday. “This act constitutes a grave affront to the Christian faith and adds to other reported incidents of desecration of Christian symbols by [Israeli] soldiers in southern Lebanon,” it said in a statement.“It further reveals a disturbing failure in moral and human formation, wherein even the most elementary reverence for the sacred and for the dignity of others has been gravely compromised.” The incident came as Israeli soldiers pushed to completely destroy homes and civilian infrastructure in dozens of Lebanese villages in order to prevent residents from returning to them.“The outrage shouldn’t be about a destroyed statue of Jesus – abhorrent as that is,” Palestinian pastor Munther Isaac wrote in a social media post on Monday.“The real outrage is the targeting of civilians, the assault on human dignity, the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon. War is evil. We need Accountability.”The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) called on Trump and Congress to intervene and end Israeli violations after the destruction of the statue.“For years, our government has ignored and enabled persistent Israeli attacks on churches and Christians in Lebanon, Gaza, and elsewhere,” CAIR said.“Our message to American public officials is simple: If you continue sending more weapons and provide political cover for Israel’s rogue actions, you own what you see in this picture.”

Israeli Soldier Says an IDF Commander Spat on the Bodies of Three Children He Killed in Gaza - A report published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz on the “moral injuries” that IDF soldiers are dealing with includes several accounts of atrocities committed against Palestinians in Gaza, including one story about an IDF commander spitting on the bodies of children. The soldier, who went by the alias Yuval, said the incident occurred in southern Gaza near the Salah al-Din highway when a platoon identified “suspicious figures” nearby and he began firing on them. “When we got to our destination, I realized that these weren’t terrorists. It was an old guy and three boys, maybe teenagers. Not one of them was armed. But their bodies were riddled with bullets; their organs were pouring out. I had never seen anything like that so close up,” he said. “I remember there was silence; nobody uttered a word. Then the battalion commander came over with his people, and one spat on the bodies and yelled, ‘This is what happens to anybody who messes with Israel, you sons of bitches.’ I was in shock, but I kept quiet because I’m a loser, just a gutless coward,” the soldier added. The report also included an account from an IDF sniper who killed Palestinians seeking aid. “When you shoot through a sniper’s scope, everything seems close, like in a computer game. You don’t forget the faces of the people you’ve killed. It stays with you,” the sniper said. Haaretz published a similar report last year that included an account from a sniper who said that at the time, during the mass killing of Palestinians seeking aid, his unit would set up an arbitrary line near where aid trucks. If any Palestinians crossed the line, they would be shot, including children. The new Haaretz report also included accounts of torture during interrogations, a detained Palestinian civilian being urinated on by an IDF soldier, and an IDF officer with an American name executing an unarmed Palestinian who had raised his hands.

Concerns Grow That Israel Plans New Military Base in Syria as Troops Bring Prefab Units With Them - Since the December 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria, the Israeli military has set up multiple semi-permanent military outposts within Syria’s southwest. There are growing signs that another such installation is planned, and locals are concerned. Israeli troops have been launching more and more incursions into the Quneitra Governorate, and while some of them are the usual establishment of temporary checkpoints to hassle local civilians, and at least one young man was reportedly captured, there are reasons to think this is more than the typical IDF operations in the area. Incursions in the area of Tal al-Ahmar al-Sharqi include not just the typical troops, they’re also bringing construction equipment like bulldozers, and prefab building units. Troops also established a checkpoint nearby the town of Samadaniyah al-Sharqiah, and seized a home on a nearby hilltop. UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF) have been deployed to the area at the behest of locals, who are concerned that the units and the growing operation portend Israel establishing another more or less permanent military structure within Syria.The impression is growing that Israel intends to make itself a permanent occupying power. In recent weeks, Israeli troops entered the town of Hadr and raised an Israeli flag over the town’s entrance.

UNICEF 'Outraged' After Israeli Attack Kills Two Water Truck Drivers in Gaza - -The UN’s child relief agency, UNICEF, said in a statement on Friday that it was “outraged” after an Israeli attack that morning killed two drivers who were contracted by the agency to “provide clean water to families” in the Gaza Strip, as the IDF continues its constant violations of the US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal.UNICEF said that “Israeli fire” killed the two drivers and wounded two other people at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza, which serves Palestinians from Gaza City. The statement said that the attack “occurred during routine, water trucking operations, with no changes in movement or procedures.”“The Mansoura water filling point is currently the only operational truck filling point for the Mekorot water supply line serving Gaza City. UNICEF and humanitarian partners use it multiple times a day to sustain critical water trucking operations for hundreds of thousands of people, including children,” UNICEF said. The UN agency added that its “contractors have been instructed to suspend onsite activities until security conditions in the area are restored” and urged an investigation of the attack on the water supply, a clear war crime under the Geneva Convention. “Humanitarian workers, essential service providers, and civilian infrastructure, including critical water facilities, must never be targeted,” UNICEF said. “The protection of civilians and those delivering life-saving assistance is an obligation under international humanitarian law.” Israeli attacks continued throughout the weekend, with Gaza’s Health Ministry reporting at least eight Palestinians were killed by the IDF over the past three days. According to the ministry’s latest update, the Israeli military has killed at least 775 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 2,171 since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in early October.

Israel's Smotrich Calls for Netanyahu To Order the 'Full Conquest of Gaza,' Establishment of Jewish Settlements - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to order the “full conquest” of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territory.Smotrich made the comments at an event marking the re-establishment of Sa-Nur, an illegal Jewish settlement in the northern Israeli-occupied West Bank that was evacuated in 2005 as part of a policy known as the “disengagement,” which also resulted in the evacuation of settlements in Gaza.“Instead of handing territory to the enemy — take territory from the enemy,” said Smotrich, who also holds a position in the defense ministry that gives him the power to expand settlements in the West Bank.“I call on the prime minister to order the IDF to prepare immediately for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip, to establish Israeli control over all the territory of the Strip, and to establish Israeli settlement in it. Without settlement, there will be no security,” Smotrich added. “For a hundred years, it has been proven — where the plow passes, the border and security follow. The war must end in an expansion of the State of Israel’s borders.” Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party, is one of the Israeli government’s most outspoken proponents of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and Israeli takeover of the territory. His position is not a fringe view in the government, as it has also been expressed by other senior officials, including Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, who has previously stated that Israel will never leave Gaza and will eventually start establishing settlements.

Hungary's Incoming Prime Minister Says ICC Warrant Will Be Enforced If Netanyahu Enters the Country - Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has said that his government would fulfill its obligations as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he entered the country. The ICC issued its warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant back in 2024 over their role in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The court also sought warrants for three Hamas leaders, but they have all been killed by Israel. Hungary’s outgoing leader, Viktor Orban, hosted Netanyahu in Budapest last year and announced his intention to withdraw Hungary from the ICC, something Magyar has said he will reverse. Netanyahu spoke with Magyar last week after Magyar’s election victory and said that the prime minister-elect had invited him to Budapest, raising questions about Magyar’s position on the ICC warrant. When asked to clarify on Monday, Magyar said he had invited all the world leaders he had spoken with to the 70th anniversary of Hungary’s 1956 anti-Soviet uprising, but that he would still enforce the warrant. Magyar told reporters that he made it clear “even to the Israeli prime minister” that he intended to stop Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC before it takes effect on June 2.“If someone is a member of the International Criminal Court and a person who is wanted enters our country, then they must be taken into custody,” he said. “I don’t need to spell everything out over the phone. I assume that every head of state and government is familiar with these laws.”

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Monday, April 27, 2026

natgas price at a 17 month low after record injection; US oil supplies at 34 month high; gasoline output at 10 month high

natural gas price at a 17 month low after earliest 100 billion cubic feet addition to storage on record; US commercial oil supplies at a 34 month high; gasoline production at a ten month high; distillates exports at a nine month high

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Monday, April 27, 2026

natgas price at a 17 month low after record injection; US oil supplies at 34 month high; gasoline output at 10 month high

natural gas price at a 17 month low after earliest 100 billion cubic feet addition to storage on record; US commercial oil supplies at ​a 34 month high; gasoline production at a ten month high; distillates exports at a nine month high

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About me

natural gas price at a 17 month low after earliest 100 billion cubic feet addition to storage on record; US commercial oil supplies at a 34 month high; gasoline production at a ten month high; distillates exports at a nine month high