oil price at a 6 month high; US oil supplies at 43 year low; oil and petroleum products supplies at a 23 year low

US oil price at a new 6 month high; natural gas price hit a six month low, record oil production from US wells; Strategic Petroleum Reserve the lowest since October 15, 1982; total of all US oil supplies, including commercial, is the lowest since October 7th, 1983; total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products at the lowest level since May 9th, 2003

US oil prices finished higher for a fourth consecutive week and for a fourth consecutive month after Houthi missiles struck the Saudi's main export hub and a couple of their largest refineries, while at lease a couple oil tankers exploded and caught fire while trying to transverse the Strait of Hormuz…after rising 4.3% to a six month high of $103.27 a barrel last week on continued attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and on Persian Gulf shipping, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery fell more than 2% in early Asian trading Monday, as hopes for easing hostilities between the United States and Iran eased market concerns, and were still down more than 1% in early trading in New York, as Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials prepared to meet in Tehran for talks aimed at preventing a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, and settled $1.51 lower at $101.76 a barrel as the market weighed the hopes of easing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran against the continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia….oil prices again traded lower on Tuesday morning in Asia following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in West Asia, but turned higher as markets opened in London as escalating Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure offset ongoing diplomatic efforts to ease the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran, then steadied in early trading in New York as traders weighed renewed diplomacy hopes against supply risks posed by the latest wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, before again turning lower to settle down $1.86 at $99.90 per barrel on the news that Iranian Security Council Chief Mohsen Rezaei met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei following talks with representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan….crude oil prices rose during Asian trading on Wednesday amid renewed concerns over oil supplies from the Middle East after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, one of the country’s largest oil-processing facilities, and were up nearly $2 in early trading in New York following the latest Houthi strike on the Saudi Arabia's main export hub, further threatening to tighten a supply-starved global fuels market, then rallied to a high of $103.55 in afternoon trading after the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report showed a larger than expected 1.9 million barrel draw from US crude oil stocks, and settled $2.88 higher at $102.78 a barrel following the larger-than-expected decline in US commercial crude inventories and escalating fighting in the Middle East, where Houthi rebels attacked Yemen's capital Aden, suspending airport operations…oil prices fell on global markets Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance had contacted Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Security Council, to restart peace talks, and were still down about 1% in early trading in New York as traders assessed the latest diplomatic push for a temporary peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. while the first tranche of oil and diesel from European emergency reserves was set to be released over the following days, and settled 78 cents lower at $102.00 a barrel, as prospects of renewed peace negotiations eased fears of supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East…oil prices jumped more than 1% during Asian trading Friday after an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz had been attacked using explosive devices planted by a small boat, and were on track for sharp monthly gains after a series of new maritime security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about Middle East energy supplies, then continued rising in early US trading as traders weighed the growing likelihood of a reescalation in the U.S.-Iran war following next week's U.S. elections, and settled $2.12 higher at a six month high of $104.12 a barrel as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections, as the attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the supply risks…oil prices thus finished 0.8% higher for the week and up 13.9% for the month from the final $90.42 quote at the end of September, largely on repeated attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and tanker traffic around the Strait of Hormuz….

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks, but that was only due to the switch to quoting the higher priced December contract, which itself fell in price over the week, largely on El Nino forecasts for a warmer than normal winter…after falling 15.3% to $2.640 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for mild weather to persist well into November across most of the US, and on massive short selling because of those forecasts, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for November delivery opened 10.9 cents lower on Monday, as forecasts for heating demand remained subdued, but trended higher throughout the session before settling 3.8 cents lower at $2.602 per mmBTU, as forecasts shifted significantly warmer over the weekend, reinforcing traders’ expectations that a Super El Niño weather pattern would produce very mild weather this winter, reducing demand for gas when it is typically ​the highest….the November contract started 4.7 cents higher on Tuesday, as LNG demand held strong for the bulls but benign weather supported the bears, and settled 9.5 cents higher at $2.697 per mmBTU, as modestly cooler weather model revisions and a rebound in LNG feedgas demand offered support and prompted short covering ahead of the November contract’s expiration…that contract opened 8.3 cents higher on its last day of trading Wednesday, as whispers of cooler temperature arriving in long-range forecasts helped to rally buyers, and went off the board 12.0 cents higher at $2.817 per mmBTU, as improving longer-range weather signals and speculation about a possible polar vortex disruption encouraged buyers, despite persistent bearish fundamentals, while the more actively traded natural gas contract for December delivery settled 2.8 cents higher at $3.032 per mmBTU…with markets now citing the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for December delivery, that contract opened 8.5 cents lower on Thursday, which some analysts attributed to profit-taking, and then tumbled to an intraday low of $2.897 after a bearish natural gas storage report hit the wire, before settling 8.0 cents lower at $2.952 per mmBTU after a larger-than-expected storage injection broke a 10-week streak of below-average inventory builds…natural gas prices continued slumping in early trading Friday, as benign fall temperatures and a bearish storage print loomed large over the market, then limped into midday as traders sized up a bearish storage result and expectations for another, as weather waned and production climbed, and settled down 5.4 cents at $2.898 per mmBTU as the prospect of additional supply returning before meaningful winter heating demand would arrive kept the market on the defensive….natural gas prices thus appeared to have finished the week 9.8% higher, but that was due to switching from the oversold November contract to the higher priced December contract midweek…that December contract itself, which finished the prior week priced at $3.050 per mmBTU, actually finished 5.0% lower…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 23rd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 80 billion cubic feet to 3,724 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 147 billion cubic feet, or 3.8% below the 3,871 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 23rd of last year, but 38 billion cubic feet, or 1.0% above the five-year average of 3,686 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 23rd of October over the most recent five years….the 80 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 70 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, and it was also more than the 75 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also a bit more than the average 77 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical in mid to late October over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 23rd showed that despite an increase in our oil imports and a jump in production from US wells, we again had to pull oil from our stored crude supplies for the twenty-fourth time in twenty-seven weeks, and for the 46th time in seventy-four weeks, largely due to jump in our oil exports that offset the supply increases…. Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 616,000 barrels per day to average 6,374,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 291,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,412,000 barrels per day to average 4,854,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,520,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 23rd, an average of 837,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 3,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 540,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 723,000 barrels per day higher at a record high of 13,992,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,052,000 barrels per day during the October 23rd reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,526,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 23rd, an average of 123,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average net of  285,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 23rd averaged 189,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a rounded [ +189 ,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 285,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 270,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercial stocks of crude oil, while 14,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the thirtieth Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR in the past 31 weeks, which left the SPR level at 282,583,000 barrels, the lowest since October 15, 1982, which was during its initial fill-up......with both commercial oil and the SPR inventories down this week, that left the Total of all US Oil Supplies at 693,208,000 barrels, down 20.4% from 870,774,000 barrels on April 17th, and the lowest since October 7th, 1983….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Data Overview (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,255,000 barrels per day last week, which was 9.3% more than the 5,724,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports rose to 4,408,000 barrels per day last week, which was 6.1% more than the 4,155,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 723,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,992,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 457,000 barrels per day lower at 12,757,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 47,000 barrels per day higher at 512,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 6.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 44.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.8% of their capacity while processing those 16.526,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 23rd, down from 93.4% the prior week, but still well above normal utilization for Autumn, when refineries are typically taken down for annual maintenance….however, the 16,526,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were still 8.6% more than the 15,219,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending October 24th of 2025, and 3.3% more than the 15,998,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending October 25th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.7%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year, probably due to the the lingering impact of historic flooding across southeast Texas in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda of that year…

With the decrease in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries also lower, decreasing by 509,000 barrels per day to 9,241,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 23rd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 518,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 3.6% less than the 9,590,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending October 24th of last year, and 9.3% less than the gasoline production of 10,184,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending October 25th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 71,000 barrels per day to 5,161,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 43,000 barrels per day during the prior week.  Even after that production decrease, our distillates output was 14.7% more than the 4,498,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 24th of 2025, and 3.8% more than the 4,970,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 25th, 2019....

Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the tenth time in thirty-seven weeks, increasing by 3,870,000 barrels to 209,180,000 barrels during the week ending October 23rd, after our gasoline inventories had ​decreased by 3,518,000 barrels during the prior week.  Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 624,000 barrels per day to 8,358,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 81,000 barrels per day to 845,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 117,000 barrels per day to 399,000 barrels per day… After fifty-seven gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 0.7% lower than last October 24th’s gasoline inventories of 210,738,000 barrels, and were about 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the eighteenth time in thirty-seven weeks, decreasing by 1,462,000 barrels to 102,824,000 barrels during the week ending October 23rd, after our distillates supplies had increased by 1,675,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 475,000 barrels per day to 4,207,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 59,000 barrels per day to 1,320,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 40,000 barrels per day to 157,000 barrels per day... After 34 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 67 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 8.3% below the 112,189,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 24th of 2025, and were about 10% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even with record production from US wells, the big jump in exports meant our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,892,000 barrels over the week, from 412,517,000 barrels on October 16th to 410,625,000 barrels on October 23rd, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,060,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about % below recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were 19.9% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s decrease was preceded by three larger draws, so as of October 23rd our commercial crude inventories were 1.3% below the 415,966,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on October 24th of 2025, and 3.5% less than the 425,509,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 25th of 2024, and 2.7% less than the 421,893,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 27th of 2023…

With this week’s drop in commercial crude SPR oil inventories, and distillates, that also meant that the week ended with the total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products down by 3,106,000 barrels to 1,495,139,000 barrels, the lowest for that total liquids supply figure since May 9th, 2003…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was unchanged for a third consecutive week over the week ending October 30th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by two, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was down by two, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 30th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 23rd) and this week’s (October 30th) count, the third column shows last week’s October 23rd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 31st of October, 2025…

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New report shows there were 2529 oil and gas incidents in Ohio in a decade - There were more than 2,500 oil and gas incidents reported in Ohio from 2015 through 2025, according to a new report. The number of incidents are generally increasing, going from 103 in 2015 to 268 in 2025, according to a new report published last week by FracTracker Alliance in partnership with Buckeye Environmental Network. FracTracker Alliance analyzed ODNR records from 2015 to 2025 for the report. “That’s much more (total incidents) than I would expect,” said Gwen Klenke, the report’s author. There were 2,529 incidents recorded in Ohio from 2015 to 2025. “Obviously everyone’s human. Everyone makes mistakes, so there’s always going to be some amount of things going wrong, but 2,500 is a pretty massive number for 10 years. … It just feels like it’s more than it should be.” The Ohio Department of Natural Resources did not respond to the Ohio Capital Journal’s questions by deadline. The Ohio Oil and Gas Association said the report was not “an objective assessment of Ohio’s energy industry.” “FracTracker’s conclusions should be viewed for what they are: advocacy, not a comprehensive assessment of the safety, environmental performance and regulatory oversight of Ohio’s oil and natural gas operations,” Ohio Oil and Gas Association Director of External Affairs Mike Chadsey said in an email. “Ohio’s energy producers remain focused on responsible development, protecting our communities and delivering the reliable energy that powers our state.” Bev Reed with Buckeye Environmental Network said the findings from this new report are alarming. “It’s incredibly important that ODNR and the legislature get their act together,” she said in an email. “We also received documents showing that an injection well company in Washington County requested that ODNR not suspend its injection well near Marietta, despite the fact that the state had grounds to immediately suspend the well.” The yearly total of oil and gas incidents in Ohio according to a report published from FracTracker Alliance in partnership with Buckeye Environmental Network. (Screenshot)The report showed incident classifications are often unclear. “There’s this really pervasive lack of good data throughout the whole data set, which is concerning considering its incidents and spills, things that we would want good details about, and related to that was the characterization of the incidents,” said Klenke, FracTracker’s Midwest Program Coordinator. A 2016 incident in Columbiana County was categorized as a “minor” incident, but was described as “static electricity from overhead power lines caused a conventional well’s tank to explode,” according to the report.  Another incident categorized as “minor” in Gallia County involved an unknown quantity of oil and gas wastewater was released from a well while it was being plugged. ODNR’s records reveal the well had been “flowing overnight with no well control in place.”  “I pointed out major explosions being categorized as minor incidents, and that just doesn’t seem good for public understanding of these types of events,” Klenke said.  ODNR has about 25 inspectors who are responsible for Ohio’s 96,000 wells, according to the report. This means one inspector is responsible for 1,500 wells in Harrison County while another inspector is responsible for about 24,000 wells in 26 counties, according to the report.  “Really any increase, I think I’d be happy with,” Klenke said when asked how many inspectors she wishes ODNR had.  “If they got 26 inspectors in Ohio, I’d be celebrating.”  More than 1,200 of the incidents were categorized as release/discharge. There 615 gas releases, 108 fires, 94 explosions or fires, and six injuries, according to the report. Of Ohio’s 88 counties, there were incidents in 73. Most of the incidents are in the eastern part of Ohio. Stark County had the most incidents with 133, followed by Noble County with 129, and Trumbull and Guernsey counties both had 114, according to the report. “Residents in those counties should be especially vigilant when they are doing things like going on hikes or walking more rural lanes,” Klenke said. “I would hope that residents in those counties would just really keep their eyes peeled for anything that doesn’t seem right. If they see something, they should definitely call emergency services to get them out there to at least check things out.” Klenke said she hopes to see more oversight and accountability with Ohio’s oil and gas wells. “It can happen with more inspectors,” she said. “It can also happen with just better tracking of the incidents, better follow through, just generally with well owners who may be concerned that something’s wrong with their well.”

Setting the Record Straight on Ohio's "2,529 Oil & Gas Incidents" - Marcellus Drilling News -- Big Green group FracTracker Alliance, with partner Buckeye Environmental Network (BEN), has released a new report claiming Ohio logged 2,529 oil and gas “incidents” from 2015 through 2025, and that incidents are “rising” while oversight is “lax.” The Ohio Capital Journal ran with the big number without checking it. But here’s the thing: if you actually read FracTracker’s own charts (we did, all 31 pages), they tell a very different story. Shale wells account for less than 8% of the incidents. Serious incidents fell more than 80%. And the “rise” is almost entirely in records that state regulators didn’t even rate as “minor.” Let’s set the record straight…NOTE: This full article is free for everyone to read; no subscription or registration required. Share the link so others learn the truth.The report, “Rising Incidents, Lax Oversight” (full copy below), is written by FracTracker’s Gwen Klenke. It’s built on Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) incident records obtained through public records requests. The headline numbers: 2,529 incidents over 11 years, rising from 103 in 2015 to 268 in 2025, and roughly 25 ODNR inspectors covering about 96,000 active wells.  The report complains that ODNR’s incident categories are fuzzy, that some incidents labeled “minor” weren’t so minor, that some records stay open for years, and that ODNR rarely issues fines. It wants more inspectors, fines for long-running violations, and an immediate stop-work order for any violation or contamination event. The project began after the Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s president said publicly in 2023 that Ohio had seen only one or two incidents affecting public health and safety in the prior decade.The report admits, without putting it in the headline, that “a large majority of incidents occur at ‘conventional’ wells.” Here are its own figures (Figure 3):

• 1,309 incidents (52%) at conventional wells, the old shallow vertical wells Ohio has been drilling for over a century
• 197 incidents (7.8%) at horizontal wells, meaning Utica/Point Pleasant shale wells
• 619 incidents (24.5%) with no activity listed, listed as “not applicable,” or “undetermined”

That works out to about 18 shale-well incidents a year. FracTracker’s own website counts 3,878 drilled horizontal wells in Ohio as of September 2025.The report spends nearly two pages arguing that “conventional” doesn’t mean “safer.” That’s a convenient argument when your data shows that the modern shale industry isn’t where the problems are.ODNR rates incidents on a five-step scale. According to FracTracker’s Figure 5, moderate, major, and severe incidents dropped from 33 in 2015 to 6 in 2025. That’s a decline of about 82%. Over all 11 years, those three categories add up to 104 incidents. That’s 4.1% of the 2,529 total.We subtracted the “minor” and “moderate-or-worse” counts from each year’s total (see our chart). What’s left is records ODNR didn’t rate even “minor”: things like “information only,” “agency assist,” and “agency referral.”

• 2015: 1 such record. 2016: 56. 2025: 135. Over 11 years: 1,063 records, or 42% of the total.
• “Minor” incidents actually went down, from 137 in 2016 to 127 in 2025.

Nearly all of the increase comes from the least serious bucket. Going from 1 record to 56 in a single year looks a lot more like a change in ODNR’s record-keeping than a change in what happened in the oilfield. What Counts as an “Incident”? Just about anything, as it turns out. The list includes 40 “gas outage/interruption” records and 61 “complaints.” One of the report’s featured “major” incidents involves a property owner who drained a tank into a river from an unregistered well. Another involves a tank explosion caused by static electricity from overhead power lines. Another happened while a well was being plugged under the state’s orphan well program. And according to FracTracker’s own Figure 7, 1,007 incidents (40%) were closed the same day and 61% within a week. The Ohio Capital Journal’s Megan Henry wrote up the report on Oct. 29. To be fair to her, she asked ODNR for comment (it didn’t respond by deadline). She also printed a reply from the Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s Mike Chadsey, who called FracTracker’s conclusions advocacy, not a real assessment. But getting a quote from each side isn’t the same as checking the numbers. The story repeated the 2,529 total and the “generally increasing” trend just as FracTracker served them up. It never mentioned that shale wells made up less than 8% of incidents, or that serious incidents fell from 33 to 6. Both facts were sitting right there in the report’s own charts. Instead, readers got Klenke telling residents of Stark, Noble, Trumbull, and Guernsey counties to be “especially vigilant when they are doing things like going on hikes.” On a hike? Really? Klenke also told the paper that 2,500 incidents feel like far more than there should be. Spread across the report’s own count of 96,000 wells, that’s about 230 records a year, or roughly one per year for every 420 wells. And some of those records weren’t at a well at all. Nobody asked her to compare that to anything.Here is the full Ohio Capital Journal article (allowed under a Creative Commons license) trumpeting the study:

Using an 8-Year-Old to Fight Gas Plants: New Albany’s New Low -- Marcellus Drilling News  -- Whitney Priestas, 8, with a microphone assist from her mom, Rhiannon Priestas, tells the Ohio Power Siting Board on Oct. 22 why a seventh gas-fired power plant for a New Albany data center would be harmful to children like her. Is there anything lower than using a child to scare grown-ups? Last Thursday night in New Albany, OH (a suburb northeast of Columbus), an 8-year-old second-grader, with her mom holding the microphone, asked the Ohio Power Siting Board (OPSB) to reject a natural gas-fired power plant that would run a data center. She told the board she’s now worried that air pollution will hurt people and animals in the local parks. Nearly 100 adults in the room rose and gave her a standing ovation. MDN had a different reaction. We’re angry. Not at the little girl. At the grown-ups who taught an 8-year-old to be afraid of the very thing that keeps her lights on, her house warm in January, and her parents’ paychecks coming.

$12M gas project breaks ground -- — A natural gas infrastructure project expected to support dozens of new jobs and future industrial growth in the Norwalk area broke ground on Monday. This follows years of efforts to address limited natural gas capacity in the city and greater region. Many project stakeholders — city officials, utility representatives and economic development leaders — gathered near the Ernsthausen Recreation Center on Republic Street to mark the start of the project. Columbia Gas of Ohio and North Coast Gas Transmission intend to invest more than $12 million combined to construct a new natural gas delivery station and upgrade pipelines serving the area. The improvements are expected to:

• • Support planned expansions at three local manufacturers
• • Create more than 100 jobs
• • Retain hundreds of existing positions

The Huron County Growth Partnership played a central role in developing the project, working with city officials, local manufacturers, utility companies and regional economic development organizations to address the city's limited natural gas supply. Sarah Ross, the partnership's executive director, said the effort involved years of discussions and coordination among organizations. “There was no blueprint for how to do this kind of improvement project; however, working with willing partners like those involved showcases what can be accomplished through proactive cross-agency coordination,” Ross said. She continued: “The completed new delivery station will spur economic growth for housing and local employers to take on new customers, new employees and new growth, meaning a stronger City of Norwalk, Huron County and region.” Norwalk Mayor Dave Light stressed how, "This project is very important to our community's economic future. Light said insufficient natural gas capacity has been a longstanding obstacle to attracting businesses and helping existing employers expand. When he took office nearly seven years ago, Light said, increasing the city's natural gas supply was already among its most pressing infrastructure needs. Businesses considering Norwalk routinely asked whether adequate water, electricity and natural gas were available. Natural gas was often the problem. Light pointed to expansions at local businesses, including Norweco, as examples of the growing demand. "This investment is vital to our business community and supports economic growth, business expansion and positions us to compete for new opportunities to strengthen our economy." The project will connect North Coast's existing transmission pipeline with Columbia Gas' distribution system through a new delivery station. About 1 mile of additional pipeline will allow more natural gas to reach a broader portion of the city's distribution network. The station will be constructed on land made available by the city near the Ernsthausen Recreation Center. Project representatives said the site was selected because of its proximity to an existing North Coast pipeline. The improvements are expected to be in service by mid-2027. The expanded capacity will also help attract development at the 79-acre North Central Ohio Industrial Park on Furniture Parkway, which has received SiteOhio Authenticated status through JobsOhio.

Norwalk Breaks Ground on Natural Gas Infrastructure Project | JobsOhio  -  NORWALK, Ohio, Oct. 26, 2026 – City, utility, business and economic development leaders broke ground today on a new natural gas point of delivery (POD) station and gas pipeline upgrades in Norwalk. The project clears the way for new jobs and investment by expanding natural gas capacity in an area where supply constraints have held back local manufacturers for years and limited the city’s ability to attract new business.  The added capacity will support planned expansions at three local advanced manufacturers, helping create over 100 new jobs and retain hundreds of existing jobs.  This project is very important to our community’s economic future,” said Norwalk Mayor David Light. “This investment is vital to our business community and supports economic growth, business expansion and positions us to compete for new opportunities to strengthen our economy. The city is thankful for all of the partners mentioned here, but also the employers, organizations, and council members who contributed to this project in some way. Columbia Gas of Ohio and North Coast Gas Transmission are investing more than $12 million combined in the project. JobsOhio plans to provide assistance for the project, which will be made public after final agreements are executed.  The project is the first supported by the JobsOhio Energy Opportunity Initiative, an up to $100 million, five-year initiative announced in October 2025. The initiative provides grants and low-interest loans to help offset costs related to natural gas and nuclear power production in Ohio, including engineering, right-of-way, and construction costs for new and existing natural gas infrastructure.  The Energy Opportunity Initiative removes the cost barriers that stifle economic development and delivers the energy capacity companies need to invest and create jobs statewide,” said JobsOhio President and CEO J.P. Nauseef. “In Norwalk, natural gas constraints threatened growth. That’s when the community, utility companies, and economic development partners came together to build a public-private solution that fulfills a local vision and empowers local manufacturers to expand. Expanded gas capacity will also enable the 79-acre North Central Ohio Industrial Park on Furniture Parkway to attract future business and maintain its SiteOhio Authenticated status, keeping the site competitive. The new station, located near the Ernsthausen Recreation Center, will draw supply from North Coast’s transmission line, and about a mile of new pipeline offsite from the station will enable the supply to support a broader area of Columbia Gas’ Norwalk system. The project is expected to be in service by mid-2027. This project demonstrates the power of collaboration,” said Bob Heidorn, President and Chief Operating Officer of Columbia Gas of Ohio. “By bringing together partners committed to economic development, we’ve designed an infrastructure solution that will support long-term economic growth in Norwalk and Huron County. Columbia Gas is proud to be part of this project, and we look forward to seeing its benefits realized in the coming years. The City of Norwalk is a great community with a lot of opportunities. The city, the Huron County Growth Partnership, Team NEO and JobsOhio worked quickly and collaboratively to remove multiple hurdles and bring this project to reality,” said North Coast Gas Transmission President Lee Lochtefeld. “North Coast is excited to invest alongside Columbia Gas and JobsOhio’s Energy Opportunity Initiative to be a part of this solution.  Local employers identified the gas capacity issue and contacted the City of Norwalk and Huron County Growth Partnership for help, who then reached out to regional and state partners at Team NEO and JobsOhio. Over nearly 18 months, the team worked with Columbia Gas and North Coast Gas Transmission to develop a solution. Access to reliable energy infrastructure is critical to attracting new investment and supporting business growth,” added Team NEO Chief Executive Officer Matt Dolan. “We are grateful to Columbia Gas of Ohio and North Coast Gas Transmission for investing in this important infrastructure project. There was no blueprint for how to do this kind of improvement project; however, working with willing partners like those involved showcases what can be accomplished through proactive cross-agency coordination,” said Sarah Ross, executive director, Huron County Growth Partnership. “The completed new delivery station will spur economic growth for housing and local employers to take on new customers, new employees, and new growth, meaning a stronger City of Norwalk, Huron County and region.  The project builds on Ohio’s energy and infrastructure advantages. Ohio ranked No. 1 for Infrastructure, the most heavily weighted category, in CNBC’s 2026 America’s Top States for Business study on its way to being named the top state for business overall. The state’s shale-energy sector has also drawn more than $117 billion in direct investment since 2011.

Refinery disruptions push Ohio gas prices higher - Spectrum News— Ohio gas prices rose sharply over the weekend, with AAA reporting the state average is now $4.40 per gallon, up 36 cents from a week ago. Economists and other experts said the increase is being driven by higher crude oil costs and disruptions at refineries that serve Ohio. Those disruptions are affecting supply in Ohio as well as in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where drivers are currently paying more than motorists in Ohio. “Those two events are taking millions of gallons of refined product out of the supply,” said Tony Ehler, a lawyer and tax group chair at Vorys Law Firm. “And when you take that amount of gallon, there’s, you know, it’s out of the supply that they need to come from somewhere else. They’re coming from further away. They’re coming from alternative sources. That means the pricing is higher.” Ohio eliminated its 38-cent gas tax earlier this month, providing drivers with short-lived relief before prices spiked again. The state’s gas tax holiday remains in effect until the new year. “The question is what are gas prices going to be if taxes were still imposed and then it would be higher,” said Michael Jones, an associate professor of economics at the University of Cincinnati. Ohio’s prices are higher than those in several neighboring states and rising at a faster pace. According to AAA, Indiana’s average is $3.97 per gallon, up 13 cents from a week ago. Kentucky’s average rose 9 cents to $4.02 per gallon, while West Virginia’s average stayed even at $4.19. Jones said the difference comes down in part to which gas stations rely on regional refineries and distribution networks. “Those gas stations that rely on the regional refineries and distribution networks, they’re going to see those higher prices than say, Kentucky, for example,” Jones said. Ehler said high prices are also affecting how gas stations buy fuel, especially smaller retailers. “The price is so high,” Ehler said. “There are some smaller retailers that may be forced to hold their capital.” Jonathan Ernest, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University, said drivers can still compare prices and choose lower-cost stations, which may add pressure for prices to fall faster. “If you’re doing that search and you’re comparing, then you can, you know, find those other stations, go to those instead of there’s a lot more pressure on prices to come down a lot faster and kind of take advantage of that competitiveness,” Ernest said. Economists said prices may come back down before the gas tax holiday ends if refineries can stabilize.

Ohio economists split on gas tax replacement - Ohio has paused its gasoline tax in an attempt to bring down high fuel prices, but some are debating whether to replace it altogether. In a recent survey, Ohio economists weighed the options.Revenue from the gas tax is mostly used to build and maintain roads and bridges. And as electric vehicles and hybrids proliferate, a “vehicle miles traveled fee” would ensure a stable source of funding, the thinking goes.When asked whether that would be more efficient than a gas tax, a panel of Ohio economists divided, according to a survey conducted last week by Scioto Analysis. Sixteen said it would be, 11 said it would not be, and four were uncertain.In the comments section of the survey, Lucas Englehardt of Kent State University agreed that a miles-traveled fee makes sense in terms of funding road maintenance. But he said policymakers need to be cognizant of other expenses created by gas-burning cars.“In as far as the goal is funding roads, it makes sense to proportion the fee to the use of roads — miles traveled being a reasonable approach, and much more representative of the benefit than ‘fuel used’ is,” he wrote.“The one wrinkle here: the gas tax is part road user fee but also part emissions charge. So, for the question of road funding, a per-mile charge is more efficient — but that doesn’t mean that it’s more efficient overall.”  David Brasington of the University of Cincinnati disagreed that a miles-traveled fee would be more efficient for a practical reason. He said people probably wouldn’t go along with its implementation. “If you use GPS tracking of Ohio drivers, it would be feasible, but people would probably have big privacy concerns,” he wrote. “Other ways of implementing a miles-driven system have high costs of administering the system compared to a gas tax.”Ali Enami of the University of Akron said he thought a miles-traveled tax would be more efficient than a gas tax. But he said that if the purpose is to maintain roads, vehicle weight should also be taken into account.Research has shown that a loaded, five-axle truck does as much damage to a road as hundreds or even thousands of cars, depending on the road’s condition.“I would add that other factors, such as vehicle weight, should be included in the calculation of the fee,” Enami wrote. “That is, holding vehicle miles traveled constant, a road used by heavier vehicles would require more frequent repairs.” When it comes to fairness, Ohio already digs a little deeper into the pockets of those who drive the most fuel-efficient vehicles. Owners of hybrids pay a $100 annual fee while those who have plug-in hybrids pay $150 and owners of full EVs pay $200. Kevin Egan of the University of Toledo said that means that those driving fully electric vehicles are already paying more than the average gas-powered motorist is paying in gas tax. “Ohio’s $200 annual registration fee on electric vehicles (vs. $35 for a gas car) is already a little more than the average gas car driver pays in state gas tax so this change already makes-up for lost state gas tax revenue from an electric car,” he wrote.“The advantage is it is easy to implement as it is just a higher annual registration fee. Yes, a vehicle-miles-traveled fee would be more efficient as those driving electric cars more would then pay more, but it would require tracking each vehicle’s annual mileage, which is not currently done.”

AI Giant Anthropic Tells Wall Street It Needs Gas—and Pipelines -- Marcellus Drilling News  - Anthropic, the San Francisco company behind the Claude artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, filed its initial public offering (IPO) paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday (Oct. 26). Buried in the 318-page prospectus, in a risk section titled “Electrical Power and Fuel Constraints,” is an admission that should make every Marcellus/Utica driller, pipeline company, and royalty owner sit up and take notice: some of Anthropic’s planned data centers will run on their own dedicated, on-site natural gas-fired power plants. And Anthropic’s big worry isn’t the gas itself. It’s getting enough pipeline capacity to deliver it.

New Pipeline Alert: Antero Midstream Targets Clarington, Ohio Hub -- Marcellus Drilling News  - Antero Midstream (AM) has a new pipeline on the drawing board. During Thursday’s 3Q26 earnings call, CEO Michael Kennedy said AM wants to build a North-South pipeline from Antero Resources’ West Virginia field north to the Clarington, Ohio, market. Kennedy said AM is “scoping it right now” and spending “a little initial capital” to assess it, and that “you’ll probably see us FID that in 2027.” (FID means final investment decision, the point where a company commits to build.) There was no press release. The news came out in answer to a question from a Goldman Sachs analyst.

CenterPoint Energy completes $2.62B Ohio gas sale | CNP Quarterly Report (10-Q) - CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP) reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.191 billion, versus $1.988 billion in 2025, and net income of $331 million, versus $293 million. Diluted earnings per share were $0.50, compared with $0.45. Nine-month consolidated net income was $891 million, versus $788 million; CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. (CERC) reported $360 million, versus $465 million. On October 1, 2026, CenterPoint Energy and CERC completed the sale of all equity interests in their Ohio natural gas local distribution company, CEOH, to National Fuel Gas Company. The purchase price was $2.62 billion, comprising $1.42 billion cash payable at closing, subject to adjustments, and a 364-day seller promissory note with original principal of $1.20 billion.For Houston Electric’s temporary emergency electric energy facilities, an administrative law judge filed a revised proposed order on October 9, 2026. If the PUCT approves the proposal, the current revenue requirement would be reduced by $112 million; assignment to a commission open meeting agenda was pending. At September 30, 2026, CenterPoint reported cash and equivalents, including amounts related to variable-interest entities; separately, restricted cash was unavailable for withdrawal until the securitization bonds mature.This combined Form 10-Q is filed separately by three registrants: CenterPoint Energy, Inc., CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, LLC and CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. Information contained herein relating to any individual Registrant is filed by such Registrant solely on its own behalf. No Registrant makes any representation as to information relating exclusively to the other Registrants or the subsidiaries of CenterPoint Energy, Inc. other than itself or its subsidiaries.

PUCO: Mismarked gas line caused Twinsburg Township explosion - News 5 Cleveland — A devastating gas explosion that destroyed three homes and damaged dozens more in Twinsburg Township last summer was the result of the inaccurate marking of a buried gas line, according to findings from the state's Public Utilities Commission.  (watch previous coverage)  According to records obtained by News 5 Investigators through a public records request, PUCO found that the June 25 explosion was caused by the inaccurate marking of a buried gas line. The investigation found workers installing fiber optic lines hit that gas line, creating a 4-inch diameter gouge in the pipeline. Inspectors say gas escaping from that line filled a house, resulting in the explosion that rocked the area. Two people were hurt, and PUCO estimated damages at $5 million. According to the report, the marking of the gas line was done by Benchmark, a contractor hired by Enbridge, two days before the explosion. Investigators found that the marking was off by 28 inches. A PUCO spokesperson said the commission is reviewing the results of the investigation and that any violations of federal pipeline safety regulations could lead to fines, operational changes, process improvements and more.Because those actions are still pending, she said she couldn't comment on the findings. An attorney representing Benchmark sent the following statement about the matter: "We are aware of the PUCO report regarding the June 25 incident in Twinsburg Township and are reviewing it carefully. The safety of the communities where we work is our highest priority, and our thoughts remain with the residents affected. Multiple parties were involved in this project, and we have cooperated fully with regulators and will continue to do so. Because this matter remains ongoing, we are not able to comment further at this time.” PUCO isn't the only agency that is investigating what happened. OSHA investigating after Twinsburg Township explosion

Enbridge Gas responds to Mill Trace Road in Boardman, Ohio - (WKBN)— A Boardman road was closed Friday afternoon while crews were called in to shut off a gas line. Emergency crews were called to Mill Trace Road, and Enbridge Gas shut off the line. A truck with an auger drill was set up in the area and appeared to be digging into the ground. Our crew on the scene said there was a heavy gas smell in the area.

Shippingport Gas Fuel Yard Permit Shows Data Center Hub Taking Shape -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  A new permit application for the natural gas “plumbing” at the old Bruce Mansfield coal plant site in Shippingport (Beaver County) has landed at the PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). Shippingport Power Station, LLC wants a stormwater permit for a 14.5-acre natural gas “fuel yard” on part of the former coal plant property. Next door, Aligned Data Centers broke ground last month on a 2-gigawatt data center campus. A stormwater permit isn’t the most exciting document you’ll read this week. What makes it news is that it shows this project moving from press releases to bulldozers.

Shell's Pennsylvania PE plant generates positive cash flow as sale talks continue - Shell plc’s massive polyethylene complex in Monaca, Pa., has generated positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters, a significant improvement as the energy giant continues discussions with potential buyers or partners for its chemicals business.

CNX to Shift to Pennsylvania's Utica in Coming Years - Hart Energy - The deep Utica in the Appalachian Basin’s core where the formation is at its deepest—thus entirely natural gas—will predominantly be CNX Resources’ future soon.  CNX Resources plans to wind down its Marcellus shale drilling in southwestern Pennsylvania around the end of the decade and shift its primary drilling and completion focus to the deep Utica formation. The Utica formation is at about 14,000 ft in drill are about 50, down from 65 in 2023. Drilling costs are more than $1,500 per lateral ft—the same as drilling the deep Haynesville in a new play north of Houston and twice as much as drilling a Haynesville well in the original play at the Texas-Louisiana border.  Further details from Google:

• Timeline: CNX expects to finish developing its remaining 40,000 to 50,000 net acres of Marcellus inventory in southwestern Pennsylvania over the next four to five years, targeting an exit from Marcellus drilling and completion around 2030. [1]
• Geographic Shift: The company will transition its primary drilling operations to the deep Utica formation—predominantly in central Pennsylvania—before eventually returning to southwestern Pennsylvania later to tap deeper Utica horizons. [1]
• Strong Well Results: Early performance has driven the pivot; three recent CNX Utica wells east of Pittsburgh (in Westmoreland County) produced over 8 billion cubic feet (Bcf) combined in their first three months online. [1]
• Cost and Operations: Deep Utica wells are expensive, requiring more than $1,500 per lateral foot. CNX drilled about seven deep Utica wells in 2026 and plans a similar number in 2027 while working to lower drilling days (down to roughly 50 days) and keep all-in costs under $1 per Mcfe. [1]
• Broader Strategy: Beyond traditional gas sales, CNX is utilizing its Utica assets for specialized infrastructure projects, including on-site natural gas-to-LNG/CNG conversion at Pittsburgh International Airport and an enhanced geothermal energy pilot in Indiana County

Shale Permits Dip to 9 Last Week; Gulfport, Snyder Bros Lead the Way -- Marcellus Drilling News  - The Marcellus/Utica region received 9 new shale well permits last week, Oct. 19 – 25, down 3 from 12 the week before. Pennsylvania issued 4 new permits, Ohio issued 4, and West Virginia issued 1. The drillers who received new-well permits last week were: Antero Resources, Gulfport, INR, JKLM Energy, and Snyder Brothers. It was a quieter week on the new-permit front. The busiest driller of all, EOG Resources, didn't get a single permit for a brand-new well — but it did get seven permits to tweak wells it was already approved to drill in Ohio (more on that below). Antero Resources | Armstrong County | Belmont County | Carroll County | Guernsey County | Gulfport Energy | Harrison County | INR/Infinity Natural Resources | JKLM Energy | Noble County | Snyder Brothers | Tioga County (PA) | Tyler County | Wyoming County (PA)

FracTracker Alliance: A.I. Data Center Developers Propose 12.5 GW Of Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants To Feed 12 Data Center Projects In Southwest PA - On October 26, the FracTracker Alliance released a new report saying A.I. data center developers are proposing 12.5 GW of natural gas-fired power plants to feed 12 data center projects in Southwest PA.  The report says these power plants would generate an amount of electricity equal to roughly 75% of all the power Pennsylvania used in 2024.The report said many proposals target communities already shaped by fossil-fuel infrastructure and legacy industrial pollution.  "Residents in these communities frequently face limited access to clear, trustworthy project information while dealing with compressed approval timelines and technical, hard-to-navigate decision-making processes. "These proposals put residents’ air quality, water resources, public health, and community future at stake." The 12 data center proposals are located in Allegheny, Washington, Westmoreland, Beaver, Greene, and Indiana counties.The information on the data center power plants was compiled during a nine-week Data Stewardship Sprint in summer 2026.FracTracker trained four Pittsburgh-based student interns to investigate proposed data center developments and produce information that communities could use in local decisions.  The team attended public meetings, filed Right-to-Know requests, reviewed permits, researched ordinances and zoning designations, mapped potentially affected community resources and ecological sites, and spoke with residents to get their side of the story.Click Here for a copy of the report and detailed information on each power plant proposal. The FracTracker Alliance supports groups across the United States, addressing pressing concerns about the health effects and exposure risks to communities from oil and gas development. Click Here to sign up for regular updates. [Note: These power plants are being built to serve one customer-- A.I. data centers-- and will likely not participate in the PJM Interconnection wholesale electricity auctions that provide power to all the other ratepayers-- residential, small business, industrial-- and will not address the shrinking power generation capacity in the PJM system. [In addition, A.I. data center developers, not necessarily locating in the state, are signing power deals with existing Pennsylvania nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generators, coal waste-fired and natural gas power plants to serve only data centers, taking more generation from PJM auctions and driving up prices, as identified by the PJM Market Monitor.]

DEP: Fracking Fluid Hose Rupture Contaminates Range Resources Appalachia Shale Gas Pad, And Down The Well Pad Slope In Washington County  - On October 21, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Range Resources Appalachia LLC Wylie Dennis 17563 shale gas well in response to a spill notification on October 20 in Buffalo Township, Washington County. DEP found a large hose holding fracking fluid ruptured during fracking operations resulting in a release of fluid that contaminated an area about 250 x 150 feet on the pad outside of secondary containment. What was described as a “mist” of fracking fluid from the ruptured hose also contaminated an area 250 x 100 feet down the southern cutslope of the well pad. Field measurements confirmed the rough area of contamination. During the inspection contaminated material was being removed from a portion of the well pad, but cleanup had not yet started on the impacted southern slope of the pad.  The owner proposes to remove the contaminated vegetation and soil on the slope for disposal. Three rolloff boxes had been filled with contaminated material and a fourth was onsite.  More boxes are expected to be needed.DEP also noted the secondary containment inspection log said damage was found and repaired in containment on October 16.Multiple violations issued.  DEP requested a response by November 9. The owner said 126 gallons of fracking fluid was released, but DEP specifically asked for “an updated quantity of the produced water released and the duration that it was in contact with the ground” to be included in the response. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos. A fact sheet from the Environmental Health Project, fracking water is a mixture of water, chemicals (such as methanol, ethylene glycol, and biocides), and proppants (fine sand) used in shale gas drilling operations.Fracking water is forced down the wellbore at high pressure in order to fracture the shale and free the gas. As pressure is released, some of the HFF returns to the surface along with contaminated water from the gas formations, radioactive materials, gases, and metals.This combination of materials is called flowback and “produced” (contaminated) water. It is considered highly toxic.  Some of the injected fluids are proprietary, so we don’t even know what they are.

DEP: Release From Diversified Production LLC Conventional Contaminated Water Pipeline Pollutes Field In Indiana County - On October 26, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected a Diversified Production LLC contaminated water release near the R&P Coal Company NT5 conventional well in response to a complaint in Young Township, Indiana County.DEP found a contaminated water pipeline released fluid that contaminated part of a field near a coalbed methane well owned by Diversified.Contaminated water was continuing to bubble up around a pipeline access pipe. Dead vegetation and field measures documented the area impacted by the release.Multiple violations were issued. DEP requested a response by November 10.  Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.  To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.

DEP Investigates Transfer Of Conventional Well Ownership, Finds Abandoned, Unplugged Well Leaking Gas 10 Feet From Apartment Building In Washington County - On October 26, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Alexander Selwyn conventional gas well owned by Don Wright in North Strabane Township, Washington County as part of an investigation into its change in ownership.DEP found the well was abandoned and not plugged and was leaking gas 10 feet from an apartment building and “distressed” area of vegetation was apparent from a gas line leading from the well.DEP also found the owner failed to submit annual production and waste generation and well integrity reports.The owner also failed to notify DEP of a change in ownership for the well within 30 days of the transfer.Multiple violations were issued.  A response was requested by November 13.Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.  Don Wright holds one permit. To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.

DEP Inspections Of 5 Shale Gas Pads Found 2 New Well Casing/Cementing Failures, 7 Continuing Well Failures in Bradford, Susquehanna, Westmoreland, Wyoming Counties -  The Department of Environmental Protection inspected five shale gas well pads between October 23 and October 29 and discovered two new instances of casing/cementing failures and seven shale gas wells with continuing failures. On October 23, 2026, DEP did an inspection of the EQT Chap LLC Sinay 7H shale gas well in Sewickley Township, Westmoreland County in response to an October 2, 2026 notification a gas leak was detected in the well casing.DEP confirmed the leak, but did not issue any violations or request any follow-up by the owner. Click Here for DEP inspection report. (Report courtesy of Protect PT Oil & Gas Permits & Violations Weekly Round-Up.)On October 28, 2026, DEP did a routine inspection of the Expand Operating LLC Lines 4H shale gas well in Monroe Township, Bradford County and found the presence of gas indicating a casing/cementing failure.DEP issued a new violation to the owner for failing to notify the agency of the problem, but dated it for April 28, 2026. Click Here for DEP inspection report. On October 27, 2026, DEP inspected the Expand Operating LLC Pieszala WYO 3H and WYO 8H shale gas wells in Windham Township, Wyoming County and found the continued presence of gas indicating casing/cementing failure.The original violations were issued on June 18, 2015 and were continued. Monitoring will continue.Click Here for DEP inspection report.  On October 29, 2026, DEP inspected the Expand Operating LLC Susan 4H, Susan 5H, Susan 25HC shale gas wells in Auburn Township, Susquehanna County and found the continued presence of gas indicating casing/cementing failure.The original violations were issued on October 29, 2020 and were continued.  Monitoring will continue. Click Here for DEP inspection report. On October 29, 2026, DEP inspected the Expand Operating LLC Cappucci 2H,  Cappucci 4H, Cappucci 102H shale gas wells in Mehoopany Township, Wyoming County and found the continued presence of gas indicating casing/cementing failure.The original violations were issued on May 21, 2020 and were continued. Monitoring will continue.Click Here for DEP inspection report.

DEP Issued 53 Violations To Conventional Oil & Gas Well Owners For Abandoning, Not Plugging Wells In October; Violations Top 409 So Far In 2026 -The Department of Environmental Protection issued and continued 53 violations to conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells in October; a total of about 409 so far in 2026. Violations for groups of abandoned wells include--

• -- DEP: Routine Inspections Find 16 Anderson Energy SVC LLC Conventional Wells Abandoned, Not Plugged In Forest County  [PaEN]
• -- DEP - Day 357: S.R. Star O&G LLC Still Fails To Comply With An Order To Plug At Least Some Of The 11 Abandoned Conventional Oil & Gas Wells It Owns In Butler County [PaEN]
• -- DEP: Follow-Up Inspections Of 4 Michael Harju Conventional Wells Found They Continue To Be Abandoned, Not Plugged Going Back To 2020 In Westmoreland County  [PaEN]
• -- DEP: Routine Inspections Find 3 Keystone Crude LLC Abandoned, Unplugged Conventional Gas Wells In Allegheny County [PaEN]
• -- DEP Investigates Transfer Of Conventional Well Ownership, Finds Abandoned, Unplugged Well Leaking Gas 10 Feet From Apartment Building In Washington County  [PaEN]
• -- DEP: Diversified Prod LLC Failed To Comply With Order To Stop Gas Venting From 2 Abandoned Conventional Wells In Westmoreland County  [PaEN]
• -- DEP - Day 82: McGuffie Oil Co Inc. Abandoned Conventional Gas Well Still Venting Gas, Creating A Hazard To Health, Safety In Allegheny County [PaEN]

DEP issued individual violations to these conventional well owners—(see list)  To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

EQT's $13 Billion Range Deal Bets On A Bigger Gas Future - The all-stock tie-up would create the largest US natural gas producer, with EQT pointing to LNG exports and AI data center power demand as key drivers. EQT said it’s buying Range Resources in a $13 billion all-stock deal to create the largest US natural gas producer, betting that LNG exports and AI data centers will keep gas demand climbing. EQT, the country’s biggest gas-focused producer, and Range Resources, a major Appalachian Basin driller, are combining to get bigger and more efficient in the Marcellus and Utica shale fields. EQT says the merged company would produce more than 9 billion cubic feet equivalent a day and control decades of drilling locations, plus pipelines and processing assets that help move gas to utilities, factories, and LNG export terminals. The sales pitch leans on demand. The Energy Information Administration expects US gas use to rise from 91.9 billion cubic feet a day in 2025 to 94.3 in 2027, and EQT says Appalachia can supply more of that as new LNG plants ramp up and power-hungry data centers expand. EQT also argues the bigger footprint lowers costs, projecting $20 billion of cumulative free cash flow over five years at recent prices and saying its breakeven gas price – the level needed to cover spending – would fall below $2 per million British thermal units. The catch is timing: the companies expect to close in the first quarter of 2027, leaving plenty of runway for gas prices, regulators, and markets to shift. Range holders get 0.987 EQT shares and the wait runs to the first quarter of 2027. Because the exchange ratio is fixed at 0.987 EQT shares per Range share, Range’s price usually tracks EQT’s, minus a discount for time and uncertainty until closing. That helps explain the first-day split – EQT fell 3.7% while Range rose 15.1% to $52.43 – since deal traders often buy the target and hedge by selling the acquirer. The key gauge now is the “deal spread”: the gap between Range’s market price and the value implied by 0.987 times EQT’s stock. If EQT’s shares get more volatile, or if approvals and integration look tougher, that gap can widen, keeping pressure on EQT around key milestones while Range trades like EQT with an extra layer of deal risk.

EQT's acquisition of Range underscores race to dominate US natgas market - (Reuters) - EQT's acquisition of rival producer Range Resources this week marks the latest consolidation in the natural gas industry, as producers are scrambling to lock in supply to feed growing demand for liquefied natural gas exports and power demand. Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based EQT said on Monday it will buy Fort Worth, Texas-based Range Resources in a $13 billion all-stock deal that will create the nation's biggest gas producer. EQT is the second-largest natural gas producer in the US. "The Range transaction increases our market access to what we believe are the two premium markets in this world - domestically in Appalachia and on the international front with LNG," EQT CEO Toby Rice told Reuters in an interview following the deal. He said it makes the company "the natural choice for gas supply domestically and around the world." The deal underscores how top US gas producers are racing to consolidate ahead of what they expect will be a step-change in domestic demand, driven by new LNG export terminals coming online and a buildout of gas-fired power plants to supply electricity-hungry data centers - even as a near-term glut has depressed prices and forced operators to curtail output. In Appalachia, where EQT and Range produce most of their gas, Rice said the company boosted its demand growth estimates for the region to over 25 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from a prior forecast of around 20 bcfd. One billion cubic feet is enough gas to supply about five million US homes for a day. TOP VIDEOS Rice said that about half of that demand growth would remain in the basin, supplying things like power plants to feed data centers, and the other half is for pipeline takeaway projects like EQT's Mountain Valley Boost project to move more gas from West Virginia to Virginia and its proposed POWER project to move more gas from Pennsylvania to Ohio. On the international front, EQT has targeted having 15% of its gas sales exposed to international markets. "Increasing our production base with Range is going to give us the ability to increase our LNG capacity, still maintain our 15% strategic target (and) increase our LNG exposure," Rice said, noting that now was "an incredibly attractive opportunity" since gas was currently trading below $4 per million British thermal units in the US but over $30 in Europe and Asia. "Natural gas demand is inflecting in two directions at once (power for data centers and LNG exports) and EQT is the only Appalachian producer contracted into both," Melius Research analysts said in a note. MORE TO COME The EQT-Range merger follows Devon Energy's merger with Coterra Energy in May 2026 to create the nation's third-biggest gas producer, and the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy in October 2024 to create Expand Energy, currently the nation's biggest gas producer. About a third of US gas production comes from the Marcellus and Utica shale basins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia in Appalachia. "There's a number of logical ... combinations there that would likely occur over the next couple of years up in the Northeast ... I think it's a natural next step in consolidation," said Matthew Bernstein, vice president of North American oil and gas at energy research and consulting firm Rystad Energy. Bernstein said Expand Energy could make a move to bolster its position in the Northeast, noting there were quite a few public players with production in Appalachia, including Antero Resources, CNX Resources and National Fuel Gas' Seneca Resources spinoff. Officials at Expand, Antero and National Fuel Gas were not immediately available for comment. Officials at CNX said they do not comment on market speculation regarding mergers and acquisitions. Analysts at Mizuho said in a note that they "continue to see gas-focused US shale assets getting concentrated in fewer hands ... This bodes well for capital discipline, especially as gas demand is expected to inflect starting in 2028 on LNG and AI data center/electrification power demand tailwinds."

Roar – EQT's Range Resources Deal to Supercharge Inventory and Boost Midstream Opportunities  -With its newly announced, $50 billion-plus combination with Range Resources, EQT Corp. — already the largest natural gas producer in the Marcellus/Utica — will overtake Expand Energy as the king of the gas jungle in the U.S. as a whole. But EQT’s planned acquisition of Range isn’t really about size. Instead, the transaction is largely aimed at supercharging EQT’s gas inventory and giving it an edge in lining up long-term gas-supply agreements with power generators and other big gas customers. It’s also about expanding opportunities to develop new pipelines to transport gas, especially to fast-growing Midwest demand centers. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the EQT/Range deal and its implications.  Unless you took a mini digital detox on Monday, you probably heard that EQT Corp. and Range Resources have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which EQT will acquire Range in an all-stock transaction. The end result, as they put it: “America’s leading natural gas company with a pro forma enterprise value over $50 billion.” If, as expected, the deal closes in Q1 2027, the combined company will have more than 9 Bcfe/d of net production, more than 30 years of inventory across nearly 3 million acres, and more than 3,700 miles of midstream infrastructure. (EQT shareholders will own about 73% of the combined company and Range shareholders will own 27%.) Figure 1 below shows EQT’s and Range Resources’ self-described “core acreage” (pink- and blue-shaded areas, respectively), most of which are in the NGLs-rich “wet” Marcellus/Utica in southwestern Pennsylvania (SWPA), northern West Virginia and southeastern Ohio. The companies also have significant — and highly complementary — core acreage in the “dry” Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania (NEPA). The dark-pink lines show the companies’ roughly 2,000 miles of gathering pipelines and most of its 1,250 miles of transmission pipelines, the standout of which is the 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) from northern West Virginia to Station 165 on the Transco Pipeline in southwestern Virginia (dark-pink line to bottom of map). (EQT holds a ~53% stake in MVP and operates it; the other co-owners include NextEra Energy, AltaGas and Consolidated Edison.)During an October 26 conference call about the deal, EQT President and CEO Toby Rice and other top brass said that a primary driver of the transaction was Range Resources’ massive gas inventory in southwestern Pennsylvania. EQT is already the top producer in that part of the Marcellus/Utica — it boosted its position there in July 2025 with the purchase of Olympus Energy, and became an even bigger player in northern West Virginia a couple of years before that with the acquisition of Tug Hill’s gas production assets and XcL Midstream’s pipeline and processing assets.  We will leave a detailed analysis of EQT’s and Range’s gas production and inventories to our partners at Novi Labs — RBN’s corporate parent — who just posted their initial analysis of the deal. Instead, we’ll focus on what the planned merger is likely to mean for pro forma EQT’s efforts to secure long-term gas-supply deals with power generators and other large gas users — and for the buildout of the company’s growing gas transmission network. For at least a couple of years now, EQT has been highlighting the development of new gas-fired power plants within and near its Appalachia production area, some of them tied to AI-related data centers. For example, in July 2025 the company announced two 20-year gas supply deals, one to provide up to 800 MMcf/d to a power-and-data-center complex in Shippingport, PA, and other to provide up to 665 MMcf/d to a similar facility in Homer City, PA. More recently, EQT said in July that it had entered into a 10-year agreement to supply up to 325 MMcf/d to Competitive Power Ventures’ (CPV) planned 2,100-megawatt (MW) Shay Energy Center in Doddridge County, WV.Many more deals like these are likely, not just in Pennsylvania and West Virginia but especially in Ohio, which has emerged as an epicenter of new data centers and related gas-fired power projects. In fact, EQT just increased its estimate for Appalachian gas demand growth through 2035 — most of it from power generators — to 25 Bcf/d from the old 20 Bcf/d. As shown in Figure 2 below, most of that growth is expected to occur in the 2029-31 period, when a tsunami of new data centers is expected to come online. Note that only about 5 Bcf/d of those incremental gas needs have been secured so far (dashed red line), suggesting that EQT and other gas producers in the Marcellus/Utica will be scrambling to reach long-term deals with gas plant owners/operators.  To deliver all that incremental gas, existing gas pipelines throughout the region will need to be expanded and entirely new pipelines built — and EQT plans to be in on that action too.First, a reminder that in July 2024 EQT “re-acquired” Equitrans, a midstream company that EQT had spun off in 2018 so it could focus on production. Equitrans was the lead developer of the 303-mile MVP we mentioned earlier — under EQT, that pipeline’s capacity is being expanded to 2.6 Bcf/d (from the current 2 Bcf/d). With Equitrans now fully owned by EQT, the company once again owns its gathering systems and other, smaller interstate pipelines near its Marcellus/Utica production.During EQT’s October 26 call, company executives said that another important rationale for acquiring Range Resources is that a good bit of the E&P’s best inventory is in southwestern Pennsylvania, close by the gas hub in Clarington, OH, that is fast-becoming a central point for shuttling Marcellus/Utica gas west and south to power generators, local distribution utilities (LDUs) and other large gas customers in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and points beyond.  As we discussed a few months ago in Movin’ Out, EQT has been developing the Clarington Connector (dashed yellow line in Figure 3 below), a 20-mile, 400-MMcf/d pipeline that will run from the producer’s system in northern West Virginia’s Marshall County to Clarington in Ohio’s Monroe County.  More recently, EQT has been pursuing the development of a much larger pipeline: the proposed Pennsylvania Ohio West Virginia Energy Reliability Pipeline — POWER Pipeline for short — which would run from an as-yet-unspecified location in southwestern Pennsylvania and/or West Virginia to the Clarington Hub. In a non-binding open season that ran from August 26 to October 26, EQT sought expression of interest for firm capacity on a pipeline with capacity of up to 1 Bcf/d that would come online by 2030. Once more gas can get to Clarington, it could move along several existing and planned pipes that connect (or will connect) to the hub there, including Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO), Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express (REX), Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline, and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners’ planned Borealis Pipeline.To sum up, as EQT sees it, the company’s pending acquisition of Range Resources isn’t about getting bigger, it’s about adding Range’s deep inventory of well-site natural gas to EQT’s own impressive stockpile, thereby putting the combined company in an even better position to secure the long-term, large-volume gas-supply deals with power generators. And, as a bonus of sorts, these supply deals will provide EQT with an expanded opportunity to develop new gas pipelines to connect its supply either directly to new power plants or to takeaway pipelines at the Clarington Hub.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: EQT Counts on Demand far Outside Appalachia | RBN Energy - EQT started off the week by announcing that it would regain its title as the country’s largest natural gas producer by purchasing Range Resources. We covered that announcement and its implications in our blog Roar. As EQT held the transaction call for the merger on Monday, it cancelled its planned earnings call on Tuesday. However, it did release the earnings report and presentation on time. The presentation gives an overview of how EQT sees some elements of the gas market evolving over time. Notably, the presentation clarifies that the 24 Bcf/d of potential Appalachian demand growth over the coming decade that it touted in the Range Resources announcement is “underpinned by power, data center and egress.” The egress portion specifically implies that not all of this new demand is going to come from near the basin, but from new pipelines leading outbound. And the company is increasing its exposure even further afield. As seen in the graphic above, it has 6 mtpa (0.8 Bcf/d) in contracted capacity at four LNG facilities, three of which have reached FID. Two of these facilities are so far south in Texas that access to any actual Appalachian molecules is impossible. However, it gives the company exposure to global prices. EQT notes in the presentation that it has more price exposure to global LNG than any of its six closest peers as independent oil and gas producers.

Toby Rice on Mike Rowe Podcast: Raccoons, Rigs and Energy Abundance -- Marcellus Drilling News  -- Mike Rowe, of “Dirty Jobs” fame, sat down with EQT CEO Toby Rice for a 77-minute episode of his podcast, The Way I Heard It, taped at the Brush Creek Frontier Summit in Wyoming. They covered why AI means we have to build a lot of stuff, why your energy bills are up 40% despite record production, how much Big Green spends fighting us, Rice’s energy-poverty nonprofit, and why permit reform is the No. 1 issue right now. Oh, and a raccoon! The interview aired the same week EQT announced its deal to buy Range Resources, but the deal didn’t come up (taped before the official announcement). Highlights and the full video are below.

Expand Energy Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Twin Eagle, Delfin and the Next Wave of Gas Demand | RBN Energy - As discussed in their Q3 2026 Earnings call, Expand Energy is building more ways to reach premium gas markets, with its Twin Eagle acquisition and Delfin LNG agreement anchoring that strategy while Western Haynesville remains a longer-term supply option. Together, those initiatives show how the company intends to connect its upstream portfolio with growing LNG, power and industrial demand, although each operates on a different timeline. The most immediate development is Twin Eagle, whose acquisition closed September 16. Its transportation and storage access, along with relationships with more than 1,000 customers, gives Expand a broader platform to supply buyers beyond its core Haynesville and Appalachian footprint. That includes data centers across the Midwest, Texas and Louisiana, as well as commercial and industrial customers willing to pay for reliable delivery to locations away from major pipelines. Management expects the combined marketing and commercial business to generate approximately $80 million of EBITDA in Q4 and reach $500 million annually by 2028. The opportunity extends beyond selling more of Expand’s own gas: the platform can also source third-party supply and capture value from regional price differences and transportation constraints. Further out, the Delfin LNG agreement provides a route toward international pricing exposure. Expand has contracted for 1.15 million tonnes annually of LNG offtake, with deliveries expected to begin during 2031–32, and management indicated that additional agreements could follow. The commercial significance is diversification beyond Henry Hub, although the value ultimately captured will depend on liquefaction, shipping and sales terms. Delfin therefore represents a longer-term outlet rather than near-term relief from a well-supplied domestic market. On the supply side in the Western Haynesville, so far in 2026, Expand has one horizontal producing well online, drilled a second appraisal well roughly 15 miles farther north and expects to drill approximately two wells in 2027. Management sees substantial resource potential but said the deep, complex reservoir currently needs gas prices above $4/Mcf to compete within its portfolio. For now, that makes Western Haynesville an option on future Gulf Coast demand growth, with capital concentrated in more competitive acreage until stronger pricing or better well economics justify broader development.

Pennsylvania Plugs 500th Abandoned Well as Cleanup Expands — Pennsylvania has plugged 500 orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells under Gov. Josh Shapiro’s administration, advancing a federally funded cleanup program targeting methane emissions, groundwater risks and environmental hazards left by decades of energy production. Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Jessica Shirley marked the milestone Wednesday, Oct. 21, following the completion of an emergency plugging project in Somerset Township, Washington County. The 500th well had been leaking significant quantities of gas into the ground and atmosphere in a residential neighborhood before crews located and sealed it, according to the governor’s office. Washington County-based M&A Resources completed the project under an emergency contract, working with DEP, the Environmental Defense Fund and McGill University. The milestone reflects an acceleration in Pennsylvania’s efforts to address abandoned energy infrastructure. The administration reports that more wells have been plugged during Shapiro’s tenure than in the preceding 12 years combined. Despite that progress, the scale of the remaining work is substantial. DEP has identified more than 27,000 orphaned and abandoned wells statewide, many of which pose potential environmental and safety risks. The agency prioritizes plugging projects based on threats to public health, groundwater, and surrounding communities. Abandoned wells can release methane, a potent greenhouse gas, while creating pathways for groundwater contamination and other hazards. Unsealed wells can also complicate land redevelopment and restrict future property uses. “I’ve spoken to the families and communities most affected by these leaking wells who are concerned about their water or the quality of the air near their homes – especially here in Western Pennsylvania,” Shapiro said. The governor described well plugging as a public health measure that also supports employment among Pennsylvania contractors. The cleanup program has received substantial federal financial support. Since 2022, the U.S. Department of the Interior has provided Pennsylvania with $216 million through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to plug, remediate, and reclaim orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells. The state’s 2026-27 budget also authorizes a one-time $19 million transfer to the Well Plugging Program, providing additional resources for addressing abandoned wells. A separate $20 million transfer supports the Hazardous Sites Cleanup Program, which addresses contaminated properties and toxic waste sites across Pennsylvania.

SRBC OKs 33 Well Pad Water Permits in Sept; Bradford Back on Top -- Marcellus Drilling News  - - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its dysfunctional and irresponsible counterpart, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals and consumptive use requests for responsible, safe shale drilling. The SRBC published a notice in the October 24th Pennsylvania Bulletin that the SRBC approved and/or renewed 33 general water use permits in September for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Lycoming, McKean, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, and Wyoming counties.

Susquehanna River Basin Commission Reports Low-Flow Stream Conditions Trigger Stop To 11 Shale Gas Water Withdrawals, 7 More Put On Watch Status - On October 31, 2026, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission Hydrologic Conditions Monitor Dashboard shows low-flow stream conditions have triggered a stop to 11 shale gas water withdrawals and put 7 more on Watch status approaching operating restrictions. The 11 water withdrawals are in Bradford, Susquehanna and Tioga counties. Shale gas water withdrawal points are among the first to be restricted by low flow and ice conditions because many of the withdrawals are on smaller streams. Similar information is not available for the Northwest and Southwest areas of the state in the Ohio River Watershed where there is shale gas drilling because there is no agency like SRBC to regulate water withdrawals. DEP does require shale gas drillers to have water management plans that include low-flow restrictions, but that’s just one more thing DEP has to enforce. Contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to report suspected violations of these requirements. Visit SRBC’s Hydrologic Conditions Monitor webpage to learn more.

3rd Circuit Denies Rehearing; NESE Pipeline Timeline Now at Risk -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  Last week, the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit said “no thanks” to Williams’ request to reconsider its September ruling that tossed out New Jersey’s water permit for the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline project. The October 22 order (embedded below) means NESE’s New Jersey water quality certification (WQC) stays vacated (i.e., canceled), and the whole matter goes back to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) for a do-over. And here’s what caught our eye: Williams no longer says the ruling won’t affect its schedule. In its rehearing petition, the company admitted the loss “will delay construction” in New Jersey and could jeopardize NESE’s November 1, 2027 in-service date. So what happens now? Let’s walk through it.

Westmoreland Seismic Event: DEP Checks EQT Pad, No Red Flags Found --- Marcellus Drilling News  -  Did the ground rumble in Westmoreland County on Sunday, October 4, because of fracking? The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) asked that question, checked EQT’s nearby Porter well pad, and found nothing abnormal. EQT’s pressure logs for that day were clean, no violations were cited, and DEP asked for more paperwork. That’s good news for EQT, even if the headline you may have seen elsewhere makes it sound much more ominous.

EPA Proposes Changes To OOOOb/c Oil & Gas Industry Methane Reduction Rules To Help Reduce Burdens On Oil & Gas Industry; Over 99% Of PA Conventional Well Owners Failed To Comply With DEP's 2022 Methane Rules - On October 27, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced changes to the OOOOb/c regulations designed to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations.In particular, EPA highlighted the changes designed to benefit marginal well owners-- conventional oil and gas wells. EPA is proposing two options to create separate categories and standards for well sites to make sure the regulations are workable for different types of wells. The first option would categorize well sites by production level, marginal or non-marginal (conventional wells). The second option would categorize them by resource type, conventional or unconventional. Before this proposed change, both conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells had to meet the same reduction requirements.EPA will hold a 45-day public comment period, including a public hearing on the proposed changes. Click Here for the EPA announcement. DEP adopted methane reduction regulations in 2022 covering both conventional oil and gas and unconventional shale gas facilities.DEP said 80% of the expected methane reductions and 76% of the volatile organic reductions from the regulations would come from conventional oil and gas wells complying with the new requirements. Read more here.In November 2025, DEP reported 99.3% of conventional oil and gas facility owners failed to comply with a 2022 DEP regulation to reduce methane and volatile organic compound emissions from their oil and gas facilities, in response to questions from PA Environment Digest.DEP said 32  [0.65%] of the approximately 4,960 conventional oil and gas well facility owners did submit reports covering approximately 36,400 [36%] out of the 101,000 wells required to report.  Read more here. In December 2025, representatives of the conventional oil and gas industry told DEP at the PA Grade Crude [Oil] Development Advisory Council--“A very large proportion, perhaps as high as 95% of Pennsylvania conventional gas wells and Pennsylvania conventional oil wells and oil/gas wells which are constructed with a production string of casing, are purposely constructed as to allow the release of methane which methane may not be a steady flow and are constructed that way by regulation.“Further, the Pennsylvania mechanical integrity process contemplates this construction.”  Read more here. Conventional gas wells produce around 46,400,000 Mcf of gas annually according to industry reports to DEP, but that’s less than 0.6% of all natural gas production in the state and falling, according to the FracTracker Alliance.The Independent Fiscal Office does not report on natural gas production from conventional gas wells in its quarterly natural gas reports because it is insignificant compared to shale gas production-- about 7,712,000,000 Mcf.Conventional oil wells produce roughly 800,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil annually in Pennsylvania, based on industry reports to DEP and the FracTracker Alliance.US production of crude oil is about 14 million barrels per day-- PA production is roughly 2,520 barrels per day (0.018%). In May 2025, DEP proposed a plan for implementing EPA’s original OOOOb/c oil and gas methane emissions reduction rule using general permits.  Read more here.In April 2026, DEP said it received more than 10,000 comments on the proposed plan and that it was reevaluating its plan.  Read more here. Comments from industry and many from environmental groups said DEP should adopt its own regulations, but for different reasons.Industry suggested a Pennsylvania rule was needed to tailor the emission reduction standards to meet the needs of the conventional oil and gas well owners, versus the unconventional shale gas drillers they said had very different operations.In July 2026, the Governor’s Office announced in the PA Bulletin DEP would be adopting its own oil and gas methane regulations to meet the EPA OOOOb/c regulation requirements.  Read more here.DEP laid out its plan for developing the regulation at an August 6 Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee meeting. Read more here. DEP said it would be submitting a plan to comply with OOOOb/c to EPA in January, however with the changes EPA is now proposing it is unclear whether that will happen. Dr. Rev. Jessica Moerman, President and CEO of the Evangelical Environmental Network, issued the following statement in response to the EPA action--“Families in oil and gas country should not have to wonder what is leaking from the wells and equipment near their homes, churches, and schools. “Weakening methane pollution protections means this worry remains a reality. “Leaking methane is not only a wasted product. The same leaks can carry benzene, and other harmful pollutants linked to cancer and birth defects, into the air that children and seniors breathe.“Just as we expect restaurants to be inspected for proper practices to keep our food safe, we believe the same principle applies to the oil and gas sites in our neighborhoods. “Leak monitoring and prompt repair are necessary practices to keep our families safe and stop our valuable natural resources from going to waste. “Pollution safeguards that cut waste and protect health are good for families, good for communities, and good stewardship of God’s bounty. “American families are justified in asking the EPA why it is wasting our taxpayer dollars on eliminating cost-effective methane pollution protections instead of directing its time and our money toward building upon positive first steps to address new and emerging health toxins, like microplastics in drinking water.”

NFG Midstream Plans Side-by-Side 24-Inch, 20-Inch Pipes in Tioga Co. -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  National Fuel Gas (NFG) is laying more pipe in Tioga County. Its gathering subsidiary, NFG Midstream Covington, has asked the PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) for a stream-and-wetland crossing permit for two natural gas pipelines, 24-inch and 20-inch, running side by side through Farmington, Deerfield, and Chatham townships. The notice also mentions a 16-inch water line. The filing comes just 10 days after NFG’s board approved splitting the company in two, and it strongly suggests NFG’s Seneca Resources drilling arm is gearing up for more Utica production in Tioga County.

20 States, Including PA & WV, Move to Defend NWP 12 from Big Green -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  In August, MDN told you about two federal lawsuits, filed six days apart by Big Green groups, aimed at killing Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP 12). That’s the Army Corps of Engineers permit that lets pipelines cross streams and wetlands without a separate federal review at every single crossing (see 2 Lawsuits in 6 Days: Big Green Targets the Permit Behind Every Pipe). Now the other side is lining up. Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen is leading 20 state attorneys general, Pennsylvania and West Virginia among them, in asking to join both lawsuits as defendants. They would stand alongside the Corps and the pipeline industry, which already won a seat at the table.

Antero 3Q: Sets Production Record, Shuts In Gas Selling for 60 Cents - Marcellus Drilling News - Antero Resources, the biggest driller in West Virginia, pumped out a company-record 4.234 Bcfe/d (billion cubic feet equivalent per day) in 3Q26. That’s up 23% from a year ago. And Antero did it while shutting in more than 100 MMcfe/d of dry gas on purpose, because local prices got so bad that on some weekends in September and October, gas went for 60 to 65 cents. Antero plans to shut in even more gas in 4Q, so it lowered its 4Q forecast to 4.3 Bcfe/d. Back in July, it promised 4.4 to 4.5 Bcfe/d. The good news? Antero says prices for its natural gas liquids (NGLs), meaning propane, butane, and their cousins, have jumped about 50% since 3Q ended. And Antero hedges almost none of its NGLs, so it keeps nearly all of that gain.

Antero Midstream Q3 earnings include $377M litigation gain | AM Quarterly Report (10-Q) - Antero Midstream Corp. (AM) reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $327.0 million, versus $294.8 million a year earlier, and net income of $392.7 million, versus $116.0 million. The quarter included a $377.0 million litigation gain after the company received damages, interest and attorneys’ fees in a concluded matter with Veolia. Nine-month operating cash flow was $1.093 billion, compared with $677.0 million. The company completed its acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion in cash consideration on February 3, 2026; the acquired assets contributed $108.3 million of revenue and $26.5 million of net income through September 30, 2026. It closed the Utica Shale divestiture on February 23, 2026, for $400 million before closing adjustments, using net proceeds to repay long-term debt. Antero Midstream redeemed all $650 million principal amount of its 2028 Notes on August 8, 2026, funded with cash on hand and Credit Facility borrowings. The board declared a $0.225-per-share common dividend payable November 11, 2026, to holders of record October 28, 2026. This unaudited quarterly report shows that at September 30, 2026, Antero Midstream reported no cash, cash equivalents or restricted cash, alongside long-term debt of $3,153,695 thousand; its reported cash buffer was therefore zero.

WV AG Probes Climate Groups for Deceptive Claims About Drillers -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey, a Republican and an outspoken defender of the state’s coal, oil and natural gas industries, has served investigative subpoenas on at least six environmental groups. He wants nearly 10 years’ worth of their records—fundraising letters, internal emails, talking points, donor names, even any ties to wind and solar companies. The legal hook? West Virginia’s consumer protection law, the same law used to go after predatory lenders and bait-and-switch con artists. McCuskey’s office is investigating whether the groups made “unfair or deceptive” claims blaming specific West Virginia energy companies (including drillers and pipeline companies) for climate change. Two of the groups, the West Virginia Rivers Coalition and 350.org, sued McCuskey in federal court on Thursday. The Sierra Club got a subpoena too, but McCuskey’s office withdrew it after the club threatened to sue. Big Green is calling it a “fishing expedition.” We call it something else (see MDN’s Take below).

DOE Doubles Down on Constitution Pipeline with New Fact Sheet --- Marcellus Drilling News  -  Constitution Pipeline map (click for larger version) The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) isn’t just writing a check for the Constitution Pipeline anymore — it’s writing the sales brochure, too. Last Wednesday, DOE posted a “fact sheet” making the case for the long-stalled 125-mile Williams pipeline, which would carry Marcellus Shale gas from Susquehanna County, PA, to Schoharie County, NY. The fact sheet follows Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s Monday visit to New York, where he announced up to $42 million in Defense Production Act (DPA) funding to push the project through permitting (see Uncle Sam Writes $42M Check to Jump-Start Constitution Pipeline). The White House and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office then traded punches in the press. Here’s the latest.

Sierra Club Takes Aim at Cape Cod Canal Pipeline Relocation -- Marcellus Drilling News  - Back in April, MDN told you about Enbridge’s ~$300 million job to move the natural gas lines that hang off the Bourne and Sagamore bridges and run them under the Cape Cod Canal instead (see Algonquin Gas Pipeline to Cape Cod Needs $301M Relocation). It’s a must-do project before Massachusetts can replace the two 90-year-old bridges. The Army Corps of Engineers ordered the move. MassDOT is paying for it. Nobody asked for more gas. Yet the Sierra Club has now decided this is a sneaky pipeline expansion in disguise, and it’s taking that argument to the Cape Cod Commission, which holds its first hearing on the project this Wednesday, Oct. 28.

U.S. Propane’s Surplus Is Nearly Gone Heading Into Winter | RBN Energy -The EIA reported a 111-Mbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 23, the fourth draw in a row. Stocks fell to 105.7 MMbbl (red line in the first chart below), just 54 Mbbl above the same week last year (blue line) but still 11.3 MMbbl, or 12%, above the five-year average (green line). Stocks have fallen 3.9 MMbbl over the past four weeks, while over the same four weeks last year they rose 2.3 MMbbl. The surplus to last year has shrunk in six of the past seven weeks, from 12.8 MMbbl in the week ended September 4, when stocks hit a record 110.5 MMbbl, to 2.7 MMbbl a week ago and just 54 Mbbl this week (second chart below). The cushion is now all but gone. Exports are the main reason. Since early September, U.S. exports have averaged 2.15 MMb/d, about 230 Mb/d more than the same period last year. The four-week average (red dashed line in the exports chart below) has stayed above last year’s (blue dashed line) every week since July, and weekly exports have topped the previous five-year range (gray area) in six of the past eight weeks. The extra exports add up to about 11 MMbbl over seven weeks, nearly the entire surplus. Stocks could fall below last year’s level as soon as next week. That leaves less room for error heading into heating season, especially in the Midwest, where stocks are already 11% below last year

Enterprise Q3 2026: Gas-to-Oil Ratio Drives More Permian Gas/NGLs | RBN Energy   - Three themes from Enterprise Products Partners’ Q3 2026 earnings call on Thursday stood out: an upward revision to its Permian natural gas and NGL production forecast, the approaching completion of a major LPG export expansion, and a farewell from Co-CEO Jim Teague on his final earnings call before retirement. The biggest news was Enterprise’s revised outlook for Permian production. The company now expects wet natural gas and NGL production to increase 34% between 2025 and 2030, up from the 23% growth it forecast just six months ago. Its crude oil production outlook, however, increased by only 100 Mb/d. The difference reflects rising gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), meaning producers are recovering more natural gas relative to crude oil than previously anticipated. As Enterprise executive Corey Johnson explained, the revision was not driven by changes in drilling or completion activity, but by “what we’re seeing coming out of the rock.” Several factors are behind the higher GORs. First, natural gas production decline curves have been flattening, allowing existing wells to sustain higher gas output relative to crude oil. Second, drilling activity is shifting toward formations with higher GORs, including the Woodford and Barnett, where initial GORs can reach 8-9, compared with roughly 2 in the Wolfcamp. Improved drilling and completion technologies are also increasing recoveries, with incremental production trending toward lighter hydrocarbons. The implications for midstream infrastructure are significant. Enterprise now anticipates building closer to two Permian gas processing plants annually, with additional NGL transportation and fractionation capacity likely needed to accommodate growing volumes. On exports, Enterprise said its fully contracted 300-Mb/d Houston Ship Channel LPG expansion is undergoing commissioning and should be completed before year-end, increasing terminal capacity to approximately 1.1 MMb/d. Management expects a substantial increase in export volumes in 2027.

Anchors Aweigh! EQT Leases LNG Tankers Named Marcellus and Utica -  Marcellus Drilling News -Here's a story that made us smile this morning. EQT, about to become the country's biggest natural gas producer once its ~$12.8 billion takeover of Range Resources closes, is leasing two brand-new LNG tankers. And EQT is naming them... wait for it... the Marcellus and the Utica! The ships arrive in 2028. Meanwhile, EQT plans to start trading LNG cargoes as soon as next year, open offices in London and Singapore, and possibly lease up to 10 more ships. Appalachian gas, on EQT-leased ships, with the names of our two great shale plays painted on the side. What's not to love?

US LNG Feedgas Rebounds Above 20 Bcf/d, Seen Holding Into Mid-November A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. {graphic: North America LNG Flow Tracker}

• 20.2 Bcf/d: US LNG feedgas demand rebounded Wednesday, climbing about 800 MMcf/d from Tuesday, according to NGI’s Entropic Analytics data. Feedgas demand has averaged 19.2 Bcf/d so far in October, up from 18.7 Bcf/d in September and about 2 Bcf/d above the October 2025 average. Daily gains in nominations can be attributed to Sabine Pass, Plaquemines and Cameron LNG, which have been running ahead of their September levels. Intake at Golden Pass LNG has averaged about 570 MMcf/d this month, up from about 345 MMcf/d in September, and reached nearly 800 MMcf/d on Oct. 22. Additional feedgas could be making its way to the Gulf Coast on intrastate systems, with NGI estimates of around 1.6 Bcf/d of implied deliveries to Corpus Christi and Freeport over the four weeks ended Oct. 28. Entropic Analytics forecasts feedgas demand holding near 20.0 Bcf/d through mid-November.
• 1.5 Bcf/d: Feedgas nominations to Freeport LNG recovered to about 1.5 Bcf/d Wednesday after a power disruption tripped all three of the terminal’s liquefaction trains early in the week, according to the company’s filings with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Freeport told regulators that an interruption in its incoming power feed tripped Trains 1, 2 and 3 on Monday morning, with flaring at the liquefaction plant and pretreatment facility continuing through noon Tuesday as operators restarted the units. Gulf South Pipeline nominations to the terminal were cut from about 1.4 Bcf/d to zero Monday, and volumes on Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) tapered to near zero by that evening. Interstate nominations recovered partially to about 490 MMcf/d Tuesday before rebounding Wednesday, though TETCO volumes were trimmed by about 270 MMcf/d late Wednesday morning. Including modeled intrastate deliveries, NGI estimates total Freeport feedgas at about 2.1 Bcf/d Wednesday, compared with about 2.5 Bcf/d Sunday.
• $23.825/MMBtu: Asian LNG futures settled Tuesday at a steep premium to coal, while European power-sector economics continued to favor coal over gas. December Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) futures settled at $31.735/MMBtu in Tuesday trading, about four times Japan’s coal price of $7.91/MMBtu on an energy-equivalent basis. JKM also settled at $12.145 above Brent crude parity of $19.59/MMBtu. In Europe, December clean dark spreads, a measure of coal-fired generation margins after carbon costs, were positive Tuesday in all nine markets NGI tracks, averaging €75.04/MWh ($83.71/MWh). Clean spark spreads for gas-fired generation were negative in seven of the nine, averaging minus €16.54/MWh. High gas prices are boosting coal demand in both Europe and Asia, according to analysts with European trading firm Mind Energy. The analysts said the coal market is also contending with supply problems, which has pushed 2027 coal futures to $149, the highest level since January 2023.

QatarEnergy Expands US LNG Portfolio With 20-Year Woodside Deal - QatarEnergy has agreed to purchase up to 3 Mt/y of LNG from Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project, expanding its US supply portfolio as it seeks replacements for disrupted Qatari production.At a Glance:

• Woodside deal adds up to 3 Mt/y
• Deliveries tied to Louisiana LNG startup
• 20-year contract goes beyond recovery

Cheniere Deal Marked Only the Start of Qatar’s Global LNG Buying Spree --Cheniere Energy, the largest US LNG producer, continues to see commercial momentum as buyers seek out new suppliers amid supply shortages caused by the Iran war and its impact on Middle East output, said CEO Jack Fusco. At a Glance:

• Iran war creating momentum for Cheniere
• Company loads record amount of cargoes
• QatarEnergy develops new strategy

Freeport LNG Feedgas Cuts Knock US Demand From Recent Highs -Natural gas deliveries to Freeport LNG stayed sharply curtailed Tuesday after nearly halting Monday, shrinking a major outlet for Texas Gulf Coast supply.NGI's North America LNG flow tracker shows US export feedgas deliveries rebounding to 19.48 Bcf/d on Oct. 27, 2026, led by Gulf Coast terminals. At a Glance:
Freeport interstate feedgas near 0 Monday
Gulf South cuts Tuesday nominations intraday
Plaquemines, Golden Pass deliveries up

Rio Grande LNG Nears Feedgas Milestone as Bay Runner Enters Service - NextDecade expects to introduce natural gas into its Rio Grande LNG terminal before year-end, narrowing its first LNG production target to the second quarter of 2027 as commissioning advances. At a Glance:

• Train 1 expected ahead of schedule
• Pipeline startup supports commissioning
• First 2 trains nearly 80% complete

ST LNG Project Offshore Texas Clears Key Regulatory Hurdle - Here are three things to know about the global LNG market this week.  QatarEnergy has developed a new strategy to further build its global LNG portfolio with long-term offtake from other suppliers to generate revenue if exports are disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz in the future. The company was once the world’s top LNG supplier, but it has signed long-term deals to buy 7 Mt/y of American LNG over the past week. CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi told Reuters this week that the company is in negotiations with LNG suppliers across the world, and it expects to sign more deals that far exceed the volumes it’s announced so far.

Energy Transfer opens season for South Mississippi gas pipeline -Energy Transfer opens a binding open season for its 215-mile South Mississippi natural gas pipeline from Louisiana, targeting service by March 2030. (P&GJ) — Energy Transfer Interstate Holdings (ETIH) has launched a binding open season for the South Mississippi Project, a proposed natural gas pipeline that would carry gas from a proposed receipt point in Richland Parish, La., to a new delivery point in the George County, Miss., area. The open season began at 9 a.m. CT on Oct. 28 and closes at 5 p.m. CT on Nov. 25. As planned, the project includes about 215 miles of either 42-inch or 36-inch pipeline, along with required compression and metering facilities, to provide incremental firm natural gas transportation service and increase capacity in southern Mississippi. ETIH said it has secured binding commitments with anchor shippers for the project. Anchor shipper capacity will not be subject to proration, will have extension rights and will be considered in determining the optimal size and design of the project. ETIH will also accept binding offers for capacity, though those offers could be subject to proration and will have no extension rights. The company plans to seek Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization to build the project facilities. ETIH proposes to co-locate most of the expansion with existing infrastructure to minimize impacts on landowners and communities and to simplify the FERC review process. ETIH expects the project to be available on or before March 1, 2030. After the open season closes, ETIH will evaluate all bids and determine whether to proceed with the project. Capacity awards, if any, will be based on the highest net present value of reservation charges from acceptable bids, up to the total quantity the facilities ETIH chooses to build can provide.

US Natural Gas Falls to Six-Month Low on Warm Weather Forecast -- US natural gas futures closed down after falling to the lowest since April as forecasts shifted significantly warmer over the weekend. Warmer weather indicates lower demand for the furnace and power-plant fuel during the early weeks of the winter heating season.The change in outlook reinforces traders’ expectations that a Super El Niño weather pattern will produce very mild weather this winter, reducing demand for gas when it is typically highest. Hedge funds last week amassed the largest short position in data going back to 2013, a huge bet on falling prices that could get even larger as conviction builds that a very warm winter is on the horizon.

U.S. natural gas falls 4% to six-month low as March-April 'widow-maker' spread hits record low 10/26/2026 - U.S. natgas futures fell 4% to a six-month low of $2.526/MMBtu as the March-April spread hit a record low, signaling limited winter supply concerns. (P&GJ) — U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a six-month low on Monday as forecasts called for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month November futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 11.4 cents to $2.526/MMBtu, on track for the lowest close since April 24. The contract stayed in technically oversold territory for a fourth straight day, the first such run since April. With futures down 21% over the past seven days, speculators raised their net short positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest since February 2024, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. The premium of March 2027 futures over April 2027 fell to a record low of about 6 cents/MMBtu, a sign the market sees little risk of tight supply this winter. March is the last month of the heating season, when utilities draw on storage, while April starts the injection season. The spread is known as the "widow-maker" because sharp swings driven by weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006. The 12-month futures strip also slid to $2.86/MMBtu, its lowest in 25 months. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 111.9 Bcfd so far in October from record highs of 113.3 Bcfd in August and September, though daily output has recovered to about 113.3 Bcfd over the past week. Meteorologists expect weather to stay mostly milder than normal through Nov. 10. Even so, LSEG forecast average Lower 48 demand, including exports, will rise from 106.6 Bcfd this week to 110.4 Bcfd next week as temperatures turn seasonally colder. Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.3 Bcfd so far in October from 17.9 Bcfd in September, below the monthly record of 18.8 Bcfd set in April. Analysts expect a 68 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Oct. 23, which would bring total U.S. inventories to 3,712 Bcf, about 0.7% above the five-year average.

Hedge funds build record US natural gas shorts on mild winter forecasts - Short-only positions across seven benchmark Henry Hub contracts climbed to 599,731, the highest since Commodity Futures Trading Commission records began in May 2013. Net short positions rose to 192,728 contracts, their most bearish level in more than six years, while bullish wagers fell to their lowest in almost two years. The positioning shift follows a sharp decline in US natural gas futures, which fell more than 15% over the week, their steepest weekly drop since February, as weather forecasts pointed to warmer-than-expected conditions during the early winter months. Commodity Weather Group expects October and November to rank as the third-warmest comparable period in records dating back to 1950, reinforcing expectations that a strong El Niño weather pattern will suppress demand for natural gas used in heating and electricity generation. However, the concentration of bearish positions has heightened the risk of a short squeeze if temperatures fall unexpectedly. A sudden cold snap could simultaneously increase heating demand and disrupt production, forcing hedge funds to cover positions and potentially accelerating a price rebound. A similar scenario unfolded in late January, when a winter storm triggered a sharp rally in natural gas prices. Money managers reduced short-only positions by more than 53,000 contracts in a single week, the largest weekly decline in more than a year. The latest positioning leaves hedge funds heavily exposed to changes in winter weather forecasts, with any reversal towards colder conditions potentially triggering substantial short covering.

Hedge funds build biggest bearish US natural gas bet in six years - As of 20 October, speculative investors held a net short position equivalent to 1,833 billion cubic feet across NYMEX and ICE Henry Hub contracts, placing bearish positioning in the third percentile of weekly observations since 2010. The positioning marks a sharp reversal from the same period last year, when money managers held a net long position equivalent to 2,026 billion cubic feet, ranking in the 74th percentile of historical observations. The shift reflects expectations that strong El Niño conditions will suppress US heating demand over the winter, adding pressure to natural gas prices. Traders anticipate that lower prices may be needed to absorb excess supply by encouraging increased consumption among electricity generators. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures could rise as much as 3.8°C above average between November and January, potentially intensifying the impact of El Niño on winter weather patterns.

U.S. natural gas rises 3% as 12-month strip hits 26-month low - U.S. natgas futures rose 3% on November contract expiry on higher demand forecasts, as the 12-month strip fell to a 26-month low of $2.84/MMBtu. (P&GJ) — U.S. natural gas futures rose about 3% on Wednesday in volatile trading ahead of contract expiration, on forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected and rising gas flows to LNG export plants in recent weeks. On its last day as the front month, November futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 7.9 cents to $2.776 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). December futures, which will soon become the front month, fell about 2% to $3.06 per MMBtu. In a sign the market is not concerned about supply meeting demand in coming months, the 12-month futures strip fell to a 26-month low of $2.84 per MMBtu. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has slipped to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bft3d) so far in October from record highs of 113.3 Bft3d in August and September, though daily output has recovered to about 113.3 Bft3d over the past week. Meteorologists expect mostly milder-than-normal weather through Nov. 12, limiting heating demand. Even so, LSEG forecast average Lower 48 demand, including exports, will rise from 106.4 Bft3d this week to 110.3 Bft3d next week. Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.3 Bft3d so far in October from 17.9 Bft3d in September, below the monthly record of 18.8 Bft3d set in April. Daily LNG feedgas has averaged about 19.1 Bft3d over the past two weeks. Gas was trading near 46-month highs of about $32 per MMBtu at both the Dutch TTF benchmark and the Japan-Korea Marker. U.S. prices have reacted little, however, because the country produces all the gas it consumes and U.S. LNG plants are already liquefying as much gas as they can. The U.S. cannot export more LNG until new liquefaction units under construction enter service. Analysts expect a storage injection of 68 billion cubic feet for the week ended Oct. 23, which would bring U.S. inventories to 3,712 billion cubic feet, about 0.7% above the five-year average.

U.S. natural gas falls 3% on rising output, milder weather -- U.S. natgas futures fall 3% on rising output and milder forecasts as the March-April spread hits a record low and the 2027 strip sinks to a 58-month low. (P&GJ) — U.S. natural gas futures fell 3% on Friday on rising output in recent days and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand than previously expected next week. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 9.4 cents, or 3%, to $2.858 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Thursday, the December contract closed at its highest price since Oct. 20. For the week, the contract was up about 8% after falling 15% the week before. For the month, it was down about 6% after rising 3% in September. In a sign that the market is not too worried about gas supplies this winter, the premium of March 2027 futures over April 2027 futures fell to a record low of about 5 cents per MMBtu. March is the last month of the winter season, when demand is usually high and utilities pull gas from storage to heat homes and businesses. April is the first month of the summer season, when demand is usually low and energy firms produce enough gas to inject into storage for the next winter. Analysts say March should never trade below April. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. The Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006. The market also does not appear too worried about supply meeting demand next year, with the Calendar 2027 futures strip falling to a 58-month low of $3.02 per MMBtu. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has slid to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bft³d) so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 Bft³d in both August and September. On a daily basis, however, output has rebounded to an average of about 113.5 Bft³d over the past two weeks. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 106.3 Bft³d this week to 108.3 Bft³d next week and 114.7 Bft³d in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.4 Bft³d so far in October, up from 17.9 Bft³d in September, but remain below the monthly record of 18.8 Bft³d set in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas has increased to an average of about 19.2 Bft³d over the past two weeks. Analysts forecast a 74-billion-cubic-foot storage injection for the week ended Oct. 30, which would bring total U.S. gas in storage to 3,798 billion cubic feet, about 1.4% above the five-year average.

Hedge Funds Build Record Short Positions on US Natural Gas as Warm Winter Looms – Hedge funds this week amassed the largest-ever short position on US natural gas on expectations that an unusually warm winter will slash demand for the furnace and power-plant fuel. Money managers boosted their short-only exposure, or bets on prices falling, across seven benchmark Henry Hub contracts to 625,150, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday. That’s the largest in data going back to May 2013, breaking the most recent short-only record which was set just a week earlier.

U.S. natural gas market sees record hedge fund short bets as warm winter outlook weighs on demand -- Expectations of an unusually warm winter are driving a stronger bearish turn in the U.S. natural gas market this week. The shift centers on forecasts that milder weather will curb demand for gas used in home heating and power generation. Highlights:

• Hedge funds increased short-only exposure on seven Henry Hub contracts to 625,150, marking the highest level since at least May 2013.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show the previous record for natural gas short-only positioning was surpassed for a second consecutive week.
• Unusually warm winter outlook is driving expectations for reduced natural gas demand, fueling the record bearish positioning by money managers.

As reported by Bloomberg, hedge funds this week amassed the largest-ever short position on U.S. natural gas as investors position for weaker seasonal demand.

Money managers increased their short-only exposure, or bets that prices will fall, across seven benchmark Henry Hub contracts to 625,150, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday. The total is the highest in records going back to May 2013, surpassing the previous short-only record that was set just a week earlier.The growing bearish stance reflects expectations that an unusually warm winter will reduce consumption of natural gas for furnaces and power plants.That outlook is reinforcing pressure on the fuel market, with traders focusing on the risk that milder temperatures leave demand below typical winter levels.Our earlier article on rising U.S. Treasury yields and swelling federal deficits explained how borrowing costs above 5% are tightening financial conditions across the economy, lifting mortgage rates and increasing the government’s interest burden. It also noted that heavy funding needs—alongside massive investment demand such as AI infrastructure—are intensifying competition for capital and complicating any near-term fiscal fix amid political gridlock.

Trump debuts oil rule rollback as Texas wobbles toward blue –   President Donald Trump couldn’t give Ken Paxton lower gas prices — but he did give him a roll back of the methane pollution rule that Paxton has led the legal charge against.Trump visited West Texas on Tuesday to drum up support for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running a razor tight Senate battle against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. He announced at Tuesday’s rally a new draft rule from the U.S. EPA that would lessen requirements for oil and gas companies to limit methane leaks. Paxton was the first to sue over the rule in 2024.“Under crooked Joe Biden, Democrats crushed small oil and gas operators... with crippling regulations and methane that cause prices to skyrocket,” Trump said. “Tonight, I’m officially terminating Biden’s expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers $45 billion dollars in costs, unlock vast quantities of Texas natural gas and produce 210 million barrels of oil.” Trump said the move “would really bring down the cost.” GOP candidates nationwide have been facing voter anger over higher gasoline prices caused by the Iran war. Average U.S. gasoline prices hit $4.27 per gallon on Tuesday, one week from election day, compared with averages below $3 per gallon at the start of the year.Trump used his appearance in oil country to lay blame for those higher costs on former President Joe Biden’s regulatory policies, which he said had stymied U.S. production. Earlier in the day, the president toured an oil tankerto showcase his deal to take majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves. EPA’s draft rule would neutralize one of the last pieces of former President Joe Biden’s climate program, requiring oil and gas producers to monitor and repair their operations to prevent methane from leaking into the atmosphere.The oil and gas sector is the third largest U.S. contributor of greenhouse gases, after motor vehicles and power plants. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin repealed climate rules for those sectors in February and September, respectively.But methane is a so-called climate superpollutant – more than 80 times as potent as carbon dioxide over a twenty-year period. Scientists say methane is likely responsible for about half a degree Celsius of observable global warming.The biggest impacts expected from Tuesday’s draft rule rollback would be for smaller, older oil and gas wells that produce no more than 15 gallons of petroleum per day – some of the lowest-producing wells that also contribute a disproportionate share of climate pollution. Studies based on satellite data show that marginal wells account for roughly half of the sector’s methane pollution, but only 5% of its product. EPA’s new proposal would exempt them from the toughest monitoring and repair requirements.

Trump says he’ll roll back Biden-era methane rules for oil and gas companies  - President Donald Trump said Tuesday his administration plans to ease regulations on methane — a potent greenhouse gas that is the second-biggest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Speaking at a midterm rally in Texas, Trump announced the rollback of methane emissions rules for oil and gas producers that the Biden administration finalized in 2024. “Tonight, I’m officially terminating Biden’s expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers,” Trump said, adding that Democrats had “crushed small oil and gas operators” with excessive regulation. He did not provide further details. The Environmental Protection Agency previewed the changes this month, promising to loosen regulations on methane leaks at lower-production oil wells, among other changes.EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said at the time: “Americans must be able to afford to heat their homes in the winter and fill up their car and drive to work. They can’t do that when the people producing the energy are weighed down by unnecessary burdens.”Trump made the announcement just a week before the midterm elections, in which numerous polls show that high fuel costs are a key issue for many voters.Methane, the main component of natural gas, traps more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, though it also breaks down more quickly. Scientists consider methane to be about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over 20 years. Methane, which is also released from natural sources like wetlands, is responsible for roughly one-third of all global warming.The Biden administration viewed eliminating methane leaks from oil and gas production as a relatively quick way to drive down emissions. The low-producing wells the rollback would affect (also called stripper wells) produce about 7% to 8% of U.S. natural gas, but they could account for about 50% of the methane that leaks into the atmosphere, research suggests. Many of those wells are near the end of their lives or at risk of falling below the threshold of profitability.However, the National Stripper Well Association has been calling for the rollback, saying in a letter last month that “the costs associated with complying with these regulations will make the wells uneconomical to operate.” As part of the rollback, the EPA also plans to eliminate its Super Emitter Program, which aimed to create a system for third-party groups to report methane leaks from natural gas production. Such leaks cannot be easily seen with the naked eye, but they can be detected by satellites or special thermal imaging cameras. The Trump administration paused implementing the program last year. Now, it is seeking to shutter it. Environmental and health groups decried the rollbacks, saying they would increase pollution in the atmosphere and increase the effects of climate change. Liz Scott, a senior director of national advocacy for the American Lung Association, said any rollback of methane regulations would also increase air pollution from volatile organic compounds, which are released alongside leaking methane during oil and gas production.

U.S. Rig Count Unchanged for Third Straight Week at 603; Niobrara Leads Gains | RBN Energy U.S. oil and gas rig count was unchanged at 603 for the week ending October 30 according to Baker Hughes data, its third consecutive week without a change and the fourth straight above 600, as gains in the Niobrara (+2) and Gulf of Mexico (+1) balanced out declines in the Eagle Ford (-1), Haynesville (-1) and All Other (-1). Oil-directed rigs climbed to 462 (+2) while gas-directed rigs fell to 130 (-2) and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 11. Total U.S. rig count is up 15 over the last 90 days and now stands 53 rigs above this week last year.

Crude Oil Production Skyrockets to All-Time High 14 MMb/d  -- U.S. crude oil production came roaring back for the week ended October 23, reaching an all-time high of 14 MMb/d (far right of chart below), according to the EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) released this morning. As discussed in this week’s Crude Oil Billboard, production in the Lower 48 skyrocketed 753 Mb/d week-over-week, largely reflecting the return of barrels previously shut in due to Hurricane Isaias. That makes the significant week-over-week jump more a story of restored barrels than a sudden acceleration in underlying supply growth. However, the previous all-time high of 13.98 MMb/d was just set three weeks ago, prior to the storm, as a trend of gradual growth can be seen over time the past year.

Passenger ship suspends global cruise because of fuel costs, stranding hundreds - A U.S. passenger ship Tuesday paused its global three-year voyage in Cambodia because of fuel costs, stranding hundreds of passengers.The MV Odyssey, which began its voyage from Belfast, Northern Ireland, two years ago, has no certain departure date as it remains docked at the port of Sihanoukville on the Gulf of Thailand.The ship is carrying 203 passengers, mostly Americans, with 156 crew members, Cambodian officials told The Associated Press. The vessel is capable of carrying 650 passengers.Villa Vie Residences, the ship’s Florida-based parent company, said in a statement that “extraordinary increases in fuel costs have placed our current operating model under unsustainable financial pressure.”We are working with residents to coordinate disembarkation and temporary living arrangements, and are supporting residents, crew, and employees as we evaluate restructuring and recapitalization alternatives over the next 60 days,” the company added.Villa Vie Residences said fuel costs per cabin previously averaged $1,800, but monthly costs have soared to an estimated $6,000 to $8,000 in some parts of Asia.It added that the price hike was a result of the Iran war, which has caused a global fuel shortage and energy prices to skyrocket.Long Dimanche, deputy governor of Preah Sihanouk Province, told reporters that the ship is scheduled to refuel before departing on Saturday, NBC News reported.Pamela Reckamp, who rented a cabin with her husband and disembarked this month, told the outlet that during a meeting in September, a company official asked cabin owners to help raise $1 million to help the ship leave Ha Long Bay, Vietnam. She recalled a woman saying she “sold [her] house” and car to be on the ship.

Diesel prices may stay elevated into spring 2027, fuel executives warn— U.S. trucking companies could face elevated diesel prices through at least spring 2027, according to energy and truck stop executives speaking Tuesday at the WEX OTR Summit. Geopolitical conflicts, refinery constraints and limited pipeline capacity continue to strain fuel supplies could continue to impact the trucking industry, according to Chuck Ryan, president and CEO of AMBEST, a nationwide network of independent truck stops and service centers. Ryan said diesel prices are unlikely to decline significantly before spring, even if global crude oil prices retreat. "I don't see it coming down until spring, and that's if things start to work out on the war front," Ryan told FreightWaves and Transport Topics during an interview following the panel discussion. Ryan said the ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine have disrupted global energy supplies, while U.S. refining and transportation infrastructure remains constrained. "If oil dropped today, that does not mean the price will go down," Ryan said during the panel. "In fact, I think we will have this problem for the next several months, whether the wars end or not." The second annual WEX OTR Summit drew more than 115 attendees, including trucking executives, fuel providers, technology companies and other transportation industry representatives. Panelists discussed how fuel supply disruptions, retail pricing strategies and changing fleet purchasing practices are affecting the trucking industry. Ryan said the nation's shrinking number of refineries, limited pipeline capacity and changing energy policies have made it increasingly difficult to respond to sudden disruptions in diesel supplies. The U.S. had more than 300 operating refineries in 1980, compared with approximately 128 today, Ryan said. Although many remaining facilities have expanded their capacity, he argued that the nation's distribution infrastructure has not kept pace with demand. "There's no space in the pipelines. There's no space in the terminals," Ryan said. "There's no place to put additional products." Ryan also warned that refineries operating near maximum capacity could become vulnerable to unexpected shutdowns or maintenance problems. During the separate interview, Ryan said restoring shuttered refineries would require substantial investment and regulatory certainty. He estimated that rebuilding portions of older California refineries could cost between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, depending on the facilities and equipment involved. Ryan said major oil companies would likely need to share the financial risks of large-scale refinery redevelopment projects. Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, director of energy research at Dow Jones Energy, said global diesel markets remain vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by attacks on Russian refineries and shipping restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. Cinquegrana said U.S. refineries have been operating above 95% of capacity, leaving limited flexibility if major facilities experience unplanned outages. He also expressed concerns about refinery maintenance schedules and the potential consequences for fuel supplies heading into 2027. Ryan identified the Northeast as a particularly vulnerable region because diesel fuel and heating oil compete for pipeline capacity during periods of cold weather. "If it gets cold in the northeast, pipeline space is going to be consumed by heating oil, and diesel oil won't make the line," Ryan said during the panel. "So then you could get into reliability issues." He said trucking fleets should diversify their fuel supply options rather than depend on a single provider. Ryan said the nation's refined-product pipelines are already heavily allocated, making alternative transportation methods more expensive. Transporting additional fuel by truck or marine vessel could help alleviate localized shortages, but those alternatives carry significantly higher costs, he said. Cinquegrana also warned that the closure of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery following a 2019 fire reduced regional refining capacity, leaving the Northeast more dependent on fuel shipments from other regions.

Valero to Restart 165 Mb/d Houston Refinery | RBN Energy - Valero has agreed to buy LyondellBasell’s shuttered Houston refinery, next to its own Houston plant. It plans to restart 165 Mb/d of light-sweet crude processing capacity by year-end 2027, with an option to add heavy-sour processing later. LyondellBasell stopped running crude at the 264-Mb/d site in Q1 2025.For the domestic crude market, phase one creates about 165 Mb/d of new Ship Channel demand for light-sweet grades. Those are many of the same barrels that supply the export docks, where crude exports averaged a record 5.6 MMb/d in April, and 4.2 MMb/d this October, per RBN's Crude Voyager. It extends the pattern described in our May blog about how Gulf Coast refiners are absorbing incremental light crude that would otherwise be exported. Valero’s deal materials also show the restarted plant supplying FCC and hydrocracker feed to Valero’s own system (which includes a 255 Mb/d refinery neighbouring the Lyondell plant and another 260 Mb/d refinery in Texas City), reducing what it buys from third parties. The heavy-sour phase would make Valero a new heavy-crude buyer in Houston, since its existing Houston refinery runs sweet crude. Valero set a Q3 record for Venezuelan crude runs and calls heavy-sour debottlenecking a priority. If Valero builds it, it would compete for Canadian and Latin American heavy grades. For now, Valero describes it as an opportunity, not a commitment.

Homeward Bound – Shell Returns to Production Growth With Focus on Deepwater, LNG and Montney | RBN Energy -Shell’s two major September developments — the closing of its C$26 billion (US$16.4 billion) acquisition of Canadian conventional producer ARC Resources and its final investment decision (FID) for the C$33 billion doubling of LNG Canada capacity — mark strategic milestones in its resumption of upstream growth after an extended reshaping of its portfolio since 2020. Shell’s cautious, returns-driven approach to the energy transition and the pandemic price shock have led it to refocus on core LNG growth, augmented by deepwater and onshore natural gas production. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze how Shell’s upstream strategy has taken a different path from fellow supermajors ExxonMobil and BP.The severe downturn triggered by the onset of the pandemic in 2020 marked a major inflection point for all oil and gas producers, including the major international integrateds. As we outlined recently in Gimme Three Steps, ExxonMobil stayed committed to investing through the cycle in large, long-life, low-cost resources. Instead of investing in renewable energy generation, Exxon focused on reducing emissions from operations and lower-carbon solutions such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In stark contrast, BP in 2020 announced a strategy to cut oil and gas production by 40% and direct investment to renewable power such as offshore wind and solar. Three years later, BP did a strategic U-turn, walking back renewable investment and refocusing on upstream growth, as we described in Back in the High Life Again. RBN Energy’s South Texas Energy Infrastructure Map brings together all the pieces of the critical and complex puzzle of the greater Corpus Christi region.  Spanning from Point Comfort, TX to Corpus Christ, TX and south of the Agua Dulce natural gas hub, the map details the processing, transportation and export facilities in RBN Energy’s classic clear, concise and easy to comprehend style.Shell struck a middle path. The company rebased its dividend in 2020 and undertook major portfolio reviews that led to asset sales, which reduced output in the short term, but it did not commit to long-term production cutbacks. In terms of the energy transition, Shell maintained its net-zero target but explicitly capped investment in lower-carbon platforms to a relatively small share of capital employed.Now, after several years of asset sales and declining output, Shell is returning to upstream growth. At its 2025 Capital Markets Day, the company targeted about 1% annual growth in combined Conventional Gas and Integrated Gas (primarily LNG) production through 2030 while keeping liquids output near 1.4 MMbbl/d. The strategy centers on deepwater oil, LNG and low-cost gas rather than rebuilding the broad asset base Shell sold off earlier in the decade.Projects starting between 2025 and 2030 were expected to provide more than 1 MMboe/d of peak capacity at an average breakeven of about $35/bbl. The Whale platform in the offshore Gulf and the Mero-4 project offshore Brazil began producing in 2025. The next wave of projects includes Bonga North (offshore Nigeria), Crux (offshore western Australia), Gato do Mato (offshore Brazil), Manatee (offshore Trinidad and Tobago), the North Field expansions (Qatar), Rosmari/Marjoram (offshore Malaysia), and Sparta (U.S. Gulf). Shell owns only partial interest in many of those projects. New volumes must also offset natural declines, maintenance and production-sharing contract effects, which is why more than 1 MMboe/d of project capacity initially translated into only about 1% annual companywide growth.  The September acquisition of ARC Resources (yellow bar segment at right in Figure 1 above) changed the outlook. The transaction added about 370 Mboe/d of output, more than 1.5 million net Montney acres and roughly 2 billion boe of proved-plus-probable reserves. Shell now expects its new projects and Canadian assets to provide about 1.4 MMboe/d of peak capacity by 2030, while combined Conventional Gas (orange bar segments) and Integrated Gas (gray bar segments) production is now expected to grow about 4% annually from 2025, while crude oil, synthetic oil and NGLs (blue bar segments) fall by about 16%.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: BP Touts Operational Improvements in Record Quarter | RBN Energy Improved operational performance helped BP capitalize on favorable markets for refined fuels in Q3 2026, lifting underlying replacement cost profit, its version of net income, 48% from the previous quarter to a record $8.5 billion, the company said in its earnings presentation October 30. Refining was a major earnings driver. Refining availability (left side of chart below) improved to 96.5%, exceeding BP’s 96% target, while refinery utilization (middle section of chart) averaged 98% over the first nine months of the year. Operating efficiencies, higher reliability and reduced maintenance activity lowered refining costs per barrel (right side of chart). Throughput declined to about 1.4 MMb/d following the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany. Better reliability, optimized product output and stronger market margins supported almost $2 billion in additional refining margin capture. Upstream production averaged 2.22 MMboe/d, essentially unchanged from Q2 2026. Plant reliability increased to 95.3% from 92.4%, primarily as operations recovered from outages in the North Sea and Indonesia. CEO Meg O’Neill said BP has taken steps to simplify its portfolio over the last six to nine months, exiting assets that were not the right strategic or financial fit. During Q3, BP launched the sale processes for its U.K. North Sea oil and gas business and its Archaea Energy renewable natural gas subsidiary, agreed to sell its mobility and convenience business in Austria, and completed the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery. She said completion of its Castrol sale is expected imminently. “We continue to see real depth of opportunity in our portfolio, but we need to earn the right to grow. The decisions on what we invest in — and what we do not — are fundamental to improving the portfolio over time,” O’Neill said. BP also said it would accelerate its Deepwater Horizon settlement payments to Louisiana and plans to prioritize excess cash flow toward settling remaining liabilities.

Baker Hughes Touts ‘Exceptionally Strong’ Power Demand, ‘Favorable Outlook’ for LNG - Baker Hughes is known as an oilfield services heavyweight, but the company is rapidly growing its footprint beyond the upstream as LNG and artificial intelligence (AI) fuel natural gas demand growth.The chart shows Lower 48 dry natural gas production recovering to roughly 109 Bcf/d in late October, following a sharp decline to around 106.6 Bcf/d in mid-October. At a Glance:
Company highlights AI, LNG-related projects
Upstream activity seen rising in 2027
Rig counts, frac spreads up year/year

Japanese Supply Deal Adds Commercial Support for LNG Canada Expansion - Japan’s Kyushu Electric Power has reached a preliminary agreement to purchase 0.85 Mt/y from LNG Canada’s planned expansion, diversifying its supplies with Canadian cargoes expected to begin arriving in the early 2030s. At a Glance:

• Kyushu agreement covers 12 annual cargoes
• Deliveries would begin in early 2030s
• British Columbia terminals offer shorter voyages

Canadian LNG Development Advances With Ksi Lisims SPA, Cedar Progress - Ksi Lisims LNG has finalized a 20-year supply agreement with Germany's SEFE, advancing commercialization of the proposed British Columbia export project as Canada’s next wave of LNG developments continues to take shape. At a Glance:

• Ksi Lisims binding contracts reach 7 Mt/y
• Preliminary agreements cover another 2 Mt/y
• Cedar LNG construction surpasses 70% completion

Shell Sees LNG Growth Opportunities From Canada to Venezuela Amid Supply Crunch - Following the acquisition of Canadian producer ARC and sanctioning of LNG Canada’s second phase, Shell management sees “multiple opportunities” for growth in a world facing severe energy disruptions.At a Glance:

• ARC acquisition strengthens portfolio
• LNG Canada expansion boosts export potential
• Venezuela offers access to Trinidad infrastructure

Europe Blinks Again: Parliament Votes 3-Year Methane Rule Delay -- Marcellus Drilling News  -  Early last week, we told you Europe blinked on its crazy methane import rules, with the European Commission (the EU’s executive branch) proposing a one-year delay (see Europe Blinks: EU Delays Methane Rules on U.S. LNG Imports a Year). Turns out one blink wasn’t enough. Last Thursday, the European Parliament voted 341-225 (with 6 abstentions) to delay the rules by three years instead of one. Under Parliament’s version, importers of oil, natural gas, and coal would have until May 31, 2031, to prove their foreign suppliers measure, report, and verify (MRV) methane leaks to EU standards. That’s good news for U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) exporters, and for the Marcellus/Utica drillers and royalty owners whose gas feeds those export plants. But don’t pop the champagne just yet. Parliament’s vote is a negotiating position, not law. EU member governments couldn’t agree last week, and if they don’t publish a final fix by Dec. 31, the original rules kick in on Jan. 1, 2027.

European Natural Gas Rallies as Mixed Weather Signals Obscures LNG Demand - European natural gas prices climbed last week as winter supply concerns persisted, while weather forecasts Monday showed northern European warmth and a temporary Asian cold spell giving way to milder conditions in early November. [graphic: Asia LNG parity prices] At a Glance:

• European forecasts turn cooler across continent
• Asian cold gives way to warmth
• US heating demand faces warmer outlook

Low European Storage Levels Signal Potential LNG Volatility, BP Says -BP management said its gas marketing and trading division posted results “significantly higher” than the previous quarter as European and Asian natural gas prices spiked amid the conflict in Iran. European Union natural gas storage was 74.9% full at 848.38 TWh on Oct. 28, 2026, trailing the five-year average by 165.6 TWh.  At a Glance:
South Asia seeking replacement cargoes
Henry Hub trades below $3
European storage raises winter concerns

Equinor warns Europe vulnerable to winter gas price spike - Equinor CEO warns Europe could face a winter gas price spike in a cold snap, with storage at its lowest since 2011 and Asia competing for LNG cargoes. (P&GJ) — Europe could face another gas price spike if cold weather lifts demand later this winter, when storage is depleted and the region depends more on scarce LNG cargoes, Equinor CEO Anders Opedal said Wednesday. The warning came as the Norwegian gas producer reported its highest quarterly earnings since 2022, driven largely by higher natural gas and oil prices this year. "Storage levels are at their lowest for this time of year since 2011, and there will be competition for LNG between Asia and Europe, especially if the weather turns cold," Opedal told a press conference. A cold spell near the end of the heating season, when storage will likely be at its lowest, could lead to significant price volatility, Opedal told Reuters, though he said actual prices were impossible to predict. Europe's benchmark gas price has more than tripled this year to its highest levels since the 2022 energy crisis, after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting about 20% of global LNG supply. European gas storage was only 75% full at the start of the heating season, a historic low. Norway is Europe's largest single natural gas supplier, through an extensive pipeline network linking its production directly with customers on the continent and in Britain. Equinor also sells LNG from its Hammerfest plant in Norway and has signed contracts for U.S. LNG, including a 1.75 MMtpy deal with Cheniere. "The Cheniere contract has now started up, meaning that we also have more LNG cargoes," Opedal said. "Some of it goes to Europe; some of it goes to other places."

Welcome To Europe's Natural Gas Car Crash | ZeroHedge  -   European natural gas prices are back at their highest since 2022, firmly in energy-crisis territory. At around €97/MWh, TTF now trades at 10x the US gas price and is up 2.5x from its April lows. We have been long TTF since the Iran crisis began. It has been our highest-conviction call of the year, made when it was far from the consensus view, and it is playing out. We have held this view since April.  What is noteworthy is how little our year-end storage forecast has shifted since we turned bullish at the start of the Iran conflict. Injections ran ahead of what we had assumed through the summer, but we have since lowered our demand projections on a now-milder base case, and the two broadly offset. The chart below shows our forecast today against where it stood back in April. Source: Asymmetric Research. * Our current forecasts shown here assume no cold spells later this year. With the injection season effectively over, attention turns to heating demand, and the key point is that demand destruction is likely to be limited this time. European gas consumption has already reset at structurally lower levels since 2022, down around 60 bcm, or 16%, versus 2021. Having already cut the easy demand, any price spike from here bites less on consumption and more on the economy, and prices can stay elevated for longer. The demand-destruction buffer that cushioned Europe in the last crisis is smaller now. This week QatarEnergy again extended its LNG force majeure to Italy’s Edison, now to end-December, the fifth extension this year. The same is true for Pakistan. Worth noting that only a few weeks back the market was getting excited about a minor resumption of LNG tanker flows out of Qatar, though still running at around a third of pre-war levels. This extension should dampen that excitement. Until recently a mild winter was treated as a given, by the market and by the politicians relying on it. In the past few days, the odds of a consistently warm winter have turned, and some models now point to potentially much colder spells late in November and into early December. Our base case still leans on mild overall, but the easy comfort of a guaranteed warm winter is gone, and that is the assumption a lot of the current calm rests on. European politicians and some academics keep reminding the market that storage should be read in the context of lower demand since 2022. But they do not, at the same time, adjust for the loss of Russian gas flows planned for next year, which makes the conclusion misleading. Pipeline gas long-term contracts are due to be phased out by September to November 2027, and the legislative window to alter any of this has, to our mind, now closed for this year. The official message remains that all is well. The data say otherwise. In short, the crisis is here, and policymakers have been asleep at the wheel, if not actively driving towards the cliff. The US has reportedly floated the idea of Europe buying more Russian gas as part of a potential Ukraine peace deal. Commission President von der Leyen rejected it clearly. President Putin, for his part, floated restoring flows through the undamaged Nord Stream line, while noting it remains under sanction and that Germany, whose coalition is firmly against, would need to agree. Our view has long been that Europe will eventually have to reconsider Russian gas, but we expected the pain to come first. The political conditions for a reversal are not yet in place, and the legal and geopolitical obstacles remain substantial. We see no meaningful return of Russian volumes before late 2027 at the earliest. Until then, Russia holds real leverage over Europe at its most vulnerable point.Some policymakers are beginning to take supply security more seriously, but the steps are small. Germany has mandated filling storage by an additional 8 TWh by December, which does little to change the broader picture. The UK has given the green light to the Jackdaw gas project, but we expect only minimal volumes next year, ramping towards around 2.5 bcm of capacity in 2028. Neither materially alters European dynamics. The next few months force the issue: the injection season is over, storage is drawing down, and there is no quick supply fix on the table. The Qatari force majeure, the thinner demand cushion, the weather models turning, the looming Russian phase-out and an incremental official response all point the same way. Where storage ends after winter, where that leaves TTF, where the asymmetry is and how we are positioned: read our full report.

European gas prices hit €100 per MWh for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis - Analysts expect high prices to persist for at least a year, even under favorable conditions On October 28, the price of European natural gas rose above €100/MWh for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis, Reuters reports. According to Intercontinental Exchange, the front-month contract at the TTF hub briefly traded at this level, about 4% above the previous session’s close. Prices are climbing to 2022 highs amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and are now trading roughly three times above the level seen before the war with Iran. Disruptions to LNG supplies from the region are causing a shortage of cargoes ahead of winter. Analysts and industry experts expect high gas prices to persist for at least a year, even if the conflict is resolved and the winter turns out to be mild, as Europe will have to replenish its reserves, which have fallen to a record low. High wholesale gas prices are feeding into energy bills for consumers and industry. In particular, the German baseload power contract for 2027 rose by 1.7% to €159.3/MWh, the highest since June 2023, while its French equivalent stood close to a two-year high of €122.5/MWh. Europe has entered the heating season, when demand is usually higher. At the same time, gas storage facilities are almost 75% full, and in Germany about 60%, well below 2025 levels. As Mathieu Utting, gas and LNG analyst at Rystad Energy, noted, the region has a smaller gas cushion than it needs and fewer options to quickly offset supply disruptions. The highest peak in gas prices on the TTF exchange was around €340/MWh in August 2022. Nevertheless, the €100 mark is still significant for energy-intensive industries. As Bloomberg notes, LNG prices in Asia have also risen to their highest level since 2022. If this winter turns out to be colder than average and supplies are limited, the European benchmark could exceed €200/MWh, consulting firm Energy Aspects warned in early October. This would be a competitive disaster for European industry, especially given the equivalent price in the US of around €8.5/MWh. As a reminder, during the trading session on October 20, the European gas price reached €90/MWh for the first time in almost four years, but declined by the end of the trading day. Mild weather this month allowed European energy companies to refill storage facilities faster than usual for October. At the same time, traders remain cautious, as the prospects for the resumption of LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf remain uncertain. An additional source of pressure was the rise in Asian liquefied natural gas prices to the highest level since 2022..

European NatGas Crosses 100-Euro "Psychological Mark" As Winter Supply Fears Mount - European natural gas prices hit triple-digit territory for the first time since December 2022. The energy-stricken continent has already begun drawing from critical stockpiles, with levels well below seasonal norms, as it braces for a cold snap and continued disruption to supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark TTF NatGas futures jumped as much as 4.1%, taking prices above 100 euros per megawatt-hour. US NatGas prices remain largely constrained amid ample supplies as El Niño-related warmth spreads across the Lower 48. The chart shows EU NatGas at 32.628 and US gas at 2.773 priced in dollars and per million British thermal units. EU NatGas is trading at about 11.8 times the US price. In other words, the chart shows a widening transatlantic energy divide. The region's storage facilities are just 75% full, compared with a 10-year average of around 90% for this time of year. Last week, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed that EU natural gas inventories declined for the first time this year. This is troubling because the EU has entered the withdrawal period with seasonally low inventories, leaving limited buffers to shield the continent from back-to-back cold blasts. What's next for Europe? A cold blast is expected in parts of continental Europe early next month. Tom Marzec-Manser, director of Europe gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "€100 is no doubt a psychological mark and could provide some resistance to further gains." Marzec-Manser continued, "With the geopolitical situation in the Middle East changing so much at the moment, particularly given the upcoming US midterms, it will not take much to move European gas prices even higher." Recall that earlier this month, Goldman energy expert Daan Struyven warned that NatGas prices could reach 150 euros per megawatt-hour "by year-end if Persian Gulf LNG exports don't improve beyond 25% of normal and if the winter realizes 1 std. dev. colder than average." Read the note here.

Iran War Adds $20B-Plus to EU Natural Gas Bill, Increases Reliance on US LNG -- The Iran war has added tens of billions of dollars to the European Union’s (EU) natural gas import bill, boosted its reliance on US LNG and left the continent’s storage inventories at the lowest point in years, the bloc’s energy watchdog said Tuesday. NGI chart shows EU natural gas storage at 74.9% full, or 848.62 TWh, on Oct. 25, 2026, 163.9 TWh below the five-year average.  At a Glance:
EU storage 75% full
US LNG accounts for 30% of supply
Gulf Coast netbacks above $30

TotalEnergies Sees LNG Prices Moving Higher as Iran War Squeezes Supply -  TotalEnergies reported double-digit increases for its LNG sales in the third quarter and expects even higher prices through the end of the year as the Iran war continues with no end in sight. Global natural gas futures through 2029 compare Henry Hub, European TTF and Japan/Korea LNG prices, highlighting wide regional price spreads. At a Glance:

• Company’s LNG prices surged 38% year/year
• Expects higher fourth quarter prices
• War delivers record downstream results

Equinor Sees Tight Winter LNG Market as Hormuz Flows Remain Limited -  LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to remain severely restricted until the conflict is resolved and vessels can transit safely, compounding Europe’s storage vulnerability heading into winter, according to Equinor. Persian Gulf map. At a Glance:
Hormuz LNG flows face prolonged restrictions
Asian LNG demand withstands high prices
Equinor links Appalachian gas with power

LNG Buying Steady in Asia, Europe Despite Soaring Prices - Asian and European natural gas prices continued to rise Monday as LNG buying is steady in both regions ahead of winter and geopolitical tensions remain high in the Middle East. At a Glance:

• TTF, JKM top $31/MMBtu
• Prices highest since 2022
• US exports highest since June

Cronos Natural Gas Field Advances as Egypt Remains Major Outlet for US LNG - Eni is advancing a natural gas project to supply gas from Cyprus for LNG exports through Egypt, where US cargoes dominate imports as declining domestic production and rising consumption collide. NGI chart shows Egyptian LNG imports rising from 2.9 Mt in 2024 to 11.3 Mt in 2026, with US LNG dominating shipments.  At a Glance:
Cronos startup targeted for early 2028
US supplies dominate Egypt’s LNG purchases
Domestic output declines sustain import demand

The Purple People Eater – Tight Tanker Supply Sends Shipping Costs to Frightening Heights | RBN Energy --   Forget ghosts and monsters. This Halloween, the scariest thing in the energy industry isn’t a one-eyed, one-horned, flyin’ purple people eater — it’s the tanker market, where a spooky jump in demand and frighteningly tight vessel supply have sent freight rates soaring. The culprit behind these hair-raising rates isn’t something lurking in the shadows, it’s a multi-headed monster of market disruptions: an unbalanced global fleet, mounting congestion in the Mediterranean, and a surge in vessel attacks. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how these forces are squeezing vessel supply and keeping freight rates at scream-inducing heights. Here at RBN, we regularly track crude oil tanker voyages and freight rates but it’s not a topic that has taken up much space in our blogosphere until recently. To help make sense of it all, we turned to our friends at McQuilling Services, a U.S.-based shipping consultancy that tracks and forecasts the tanker market. This is our second in a series on freight rates. In Part 1, we explored how stronger demand for long-haul crude shipments, a tightening supply of available tankers and other factors have sent freight rates soaring, with little relief in sight.The cost to charter a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) capable of carrying 2 MMbbl of crude from the Gulf Coast to Asia (red line and right axis in Figure 1 below) reached its highest point on record in early October at more than $80 million (equivalent to $40/bbl), although rates have fallen since then, dropping back below $60 million on October 21 and settling around $58 million on October 27. Prior to the start of the war with Iran earlier this year, the voyage cost typically ranged between $8 million and $14 million. However, once the conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz closed to normal traffic, freight rates became a lot more volatile. The cost to charter an Aframax from the Gulf Coast to Europe (blue line and left axis) has followed a similar pattern, dropping from about WS1,000 earlier this month to about WS720 over the same period. [Freight rates are expressed in total dollars per voyage or in Worldscale (WS) points, an industry-standard system that measures freight rates relative to a benchmark or specific route; for a more detailed explanation, see Part 1.] Our first blog looked at the unique combination of vessel demand-side factors that have helped drive freight rates to record highs, including new routes for Middle Eastern crude and increased purchases by China. Today, we turn to the supply-side forces further squeezing the tanker market, starting with atypical fleet deployments and congested traffic.Earlier this year, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced the number of cargoes available to tankers located East of Suez (the Middle East and Asia). Many owners responded by sending their ships to the West of Suez market (Africa, Europe and the Americas), leaving the global tanker market geographically unbalanced. Oil flows through the strait have recovered and cargo opportunities in the East are beginning to recover, but those ships cannot be quickly or easily repositioned. Vessel owners are looking for cargoes in the West to cover the cost of the long voyage back to the East, while Suez Canal transits and loading delays also add time to the transition.That situation is illustrated in Figure 2 below, which tracks the percentage of the global VLCC fleet positioned East of Suez each month. (The vast majority of VLCCs typically operate east of the canal because the Middle East is the world’s primary hub for VLCC loadings, with the massive volumes of crude moving from the Persian Gulf to Asian markets accounting for a dominant share of global VLCC demand.) The year started normally enough, with 84% of the VLCC fleet in the East in January (left end of blue line), near the top of the 2021-25 range (gray-shaded area) and just above the five-year average (dotted orange line). But that percentage quickly began dropping and reached as low as 74% in September, well below the five-year range. In other words, the giant tankers that normally load Middle East crude for Asia were pulled west in numbers not seen in at least five years. The turnaround has been fast: by late October, the Eastern share had rebounded to 82% (red dot), above the five-year average, as ships began the long voyage back. The geographic imbalance isn’t limited to VLCCs — smaller tankers also play an important role in the crude and refined product markets, so let’s take a moment to offer some background there. As noted above, VLCCs are the largest tankers, typically carrying about 2 MMbbl of crude oil. Suezmax tankers — so named for their ability to transit the Suez Canal at or near its maximum vessel-size limits, making them well suited for long-haul routes between major exporting regions and global refining markets — fall below VLCCs in size, typically capable of carrying around 1 MMbbl of crude oil. Aframax tankers are smaller yet, capable of carrying roughly 600-700 Mbbl (generally crude oil) and often serving regional markets and ports that can’t accommodate the larger vessels. Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers are similar in size to Aframaxes, and capable of carrying around the same volume, but have coated cargo tanks that also allow them to transport refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and naphtha. Medium Range (MR2) tankers are smaller still, typically carrying about 300-450 Mbbl of refined products on shorter regional routes, and share the same coated-tank flexibility. Across all five major tanker sizes (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, LR2 and MR2), the proportion of vessels operating East of Suez fell during the June-September period to its lowest level in at least five years, according to McQuilling. As demand and earnings in the East recover along with the strait’s traffic and China’s refined product exports, that imbalance should begin to unwind. Aframax owners are offering competitive freight rates for U.S. Gulf cargoes to Asia to reposition to the East, while stronger earnings have prompted a net 122 LR2s to switch to crude and other heavier cargoes since January, shrinking the fleet available to transport lighter refined products. Several MR2 owners in the Atlantic Basin have also expressed a willingness to carry crude cargoes to Asia, an unusual trading strategy that underscores the growing incentive to reposition vessels back to the East.As more Saudi crude was rerouted through Egypt in recent months, the Mediterranean went from quiet to crowded almost overnight. Just five VLCCs were working the region prior to the U.S.-Iran conflict; by September that number had swelled to a peak of 32. The influx followed increased Saudi crude flows through Saudi Aramco’s East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, then by tanker to Egypt’s Ain Sukhna terminal and through the SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The surge in tanker traffic strained loading logistics at Sidi Kerir, while Houthi drone attacks on the East-West Pipeline on September 10 disrupted incoming supplies, further complicating loading schedules.As of the end of October, the bottleneck is starting to clear. With the East-West Pipeline back in service, congestion around Sidi Kerir has eased, and VLCC presence in the Mediterranean has fallen from that September peak to just 14 by mid-October. But those ships can’t rejoin the market right away, as they face roughly 50 days at sea taking the longer route past Gibraltar and the Cape of Good Hope before their tonnage becomes available again in the East. Attacks on commercial shipping aren’t new, but 2026 is on another level, with at least 252 confirmed incidents so far, including 127 oil tankers. In the Middle East, most tanker attacks have happened in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and strikes, mainly by Iran and the U.S. (the latter against Iranian vessels), have contributed to 63 tankers being disabled this year. Tracking attacked tankers by their AIS signals (the transponders that broadcast a ship’s position) shows 20 VLCCs, 13 Suezmaxes, 14 Aframaxes and 16 smaller tankers are still out of service. Among vessels that have returned to trading, observed repair periods have generally ranged from one to three months, further constraining effective tanker supply and supporting freight rates. McQuilling has also counted at least 21 VLCCs entering drydock in August and another 21 in September, the highest monthly levels in three years. (Drydocking typically removes a vessel from service for about 30 days.)To ease the pressure that soaring freight costs and reduced tanker availability are putting on global oil and fuel prices, the Trump administration has floated the idea of relaxing U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions on certain tankers. In an October 19 interview, Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested relief could include allowing sanctioned vessels to be sold to conventional owners, subject to an approval process that would let them return to legitimate trading. That looks like a meaningful supply increase at first glance, especially for VLCCs and MR2s. McQuilling’s analysis shows 92% of OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs carry no additional European Union (EU) or U.K. sanctions, so in theory those ships could rejoin the conventional fleet without any action from European authorities. McQuilling still expects the near-term impact to be limited, even if these measures happen. Conventional owners would first need clear rules on acquiring, approving and delisting sanctioned vessels, and none have been issued.The bigger issue is the ships themselves. More than 80% of OFAC-sanctioned oil tankers are over 20 years old, and conventional charterers won’t touch tankers that old because of port restrictions and compliance requirements. Of the rest, most are 16 to 20 years old, leaving just 22 VLCCs, two Aframax/LR2s and a handful of smaller tankers under 20 that could realistically trade conventionally. On top of that, almost all OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs were designated for Iranian oil trades, not Russian ones; some of them are even owned by Iranian government or Iranian shipping entities. So even under broad OFAC-only relief, the boost in commercially acceptable VLCC supply would be modest, and other tanker segments would see little change without matching relief from the EU and U.K. The bottom line is that tanker freight rates should hold a floor beneath them for a while. Crude moving out of the Strait of Hormuz still leans heavily on ship-to-ship operations, and ships are spending more time sailing and waiting than before. All of that makes the fleet less efficient, and that inefficiency keeps effective supply tight. The wild card is geopolitics. U.S. and Israeli officials have talked openly about a new round of strikes after the November midterms. An escalation would disrupt these flows all over again Volatility looks likely to stay the defining feature of this market for months to come and this is a topic we’ll be closely watching.

Nigerian Navy uncovers 132,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil in Rivers – The Nigerian Navy has uncovered approximately 132,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil stored in 10 dugout pits in Allison community, Bonny Local Government Area of Rivers State, as part of its ongoing operations against crude oil theft in the Niger Delta.The Director of Naval Information, Navy Captain Abiodun Folorunsho, disclosed the discovery in a statement detailing the Navy’s latest efforts to dismantle illegal petroleum storage and refining facilities across the region. According to the statement, the discovery was made on Thursday, October 22, 2026, by personnel of Forward Operating Base (FOB) BONNY under Operation Delta Sentinel, following actionable intelligence on suspected illegal petroleum activities in the area. Folorunsho explained that intelligence received by naval personnel led to the discovery of 10 dugout pits containing approximately 132,000 litres of substance suspected to be stolen crude oil in Allison community.“The Nigerian Navy has uncovered an estimated 132,000 litres of substance suspected to be stolen crude oil in Allison community, Bonny Local Government Area of Rivers State, disrupting a potential storage point within the illicit petroleum supply chain,” the statement reads in part.The Navy described the location as a potential storage point within the illegal petroleum supply chain, where stolen crude oil could be concealed before being moved for unauthorised processing or distribution. “The operation reinforces the importance of intelligence-led action in identifying concealed petroleum stockpiles and disrupting the infrastructure that enables crude oil theft and the unauthorised movement of petroleum products,” the statement read.The Navy also urged community leaders, residents, traditional institutions and other stakeholders to report suspicious petroleum storage facilities, illegal refining activities and unauthorised movement of petroleum products to security agencies.The latest discovery adds to several recoveries of suspected stolen crude oil and illegally refined petroleum products recorded by the Nigerian Navy across the Niger Delta in 2026.

• In September, naval personnel uncovered approximately 85,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil in 16 concealed dugout pits in Allison community, the same location where the latest discovery was made.
• The September 29 operation followed the dismantling of an illegal refining camp in the area on September 22, indicating repeated attempts to use the community for suspected illegal petroleum activities.
• Earlier in October, the Navy uncovered another suspected illegal refining site in Orashi Forest, Ogbogolo community, Ahoada West Local Government Area of Rivers State.
• The October 15 operation led to the discovery of 23 dugout pits containing approximately 114,500 litres of suspected stolen crude oil and illegally refined petroleum products.

Of the recovered products, approximately 105,000 litres were suspected to be illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, while 9,500 litres were suspected to be stolen crude oil.

India Diesel Export Boom Set to Ease Global Crunch - A surge in Indian diesel exports is set to hit global markets next year as new refining capacity comes online, bringing much-needed supply to fuel-starved markets from the US to Europe. State-owned refiners will add at least 15 million tons of annual diesel-making capacity through a new refinery and expansions at existing plants, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday. “We’ll be in the happy situation of not only refining for ourselves but for the world,” Puri told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Goa. The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars have disrupted crude and fuel flows, tightening global supplies and driving up prices this year. Diesel has been particularly squeezed after Russia halted exports in July to protect domestic supplies following attacks on its refineries and ports. The crunch sent US diesel prices to a record, prompting Washington to consider export curbs before President Donald Trump struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to release more fuel into global markets. The turmoil has created an opportunity for India, already one of the world’s biggest suppliers of diesel, the workhorse fuel that powers farms, factories and heavy transport. The South Asian nation overtook Russia this year to become the world’s second-biggest diesel exporter, according to Kpler data. The refinery expansions could further strengthen India’s global fuel markets share as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects supplies to remain tight through 2027. Indian Oil Corp., the country’s largest refiner, expects to produce as much as 9 million tons more diesel annually from next year after completing expansions that will add more than 17 million tons of crude-processing capacity across three refineries, Chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney said. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. will add about 4 million tons of diesel output as its new 9 million-ton-a-year Rajasthan refinery ramps up to full capacity, Chairman Vikas Kaushal said. Oil India Ltd.’s unit Numaligarh Refinery Ltd. will boost production of the fuel to about 3 million tons. Meanwhile, Bharat Petroleum Corp. expects to add 1.5 million tons from 2028, Chairman Sanjay Khanna said. In the first half of the financial year that began in April, Indian refiners produced 59 million tons of the fuel while domestic consumption was about 46 million tons, according to oil ministry data. Overall refining capacity in the country is set to climb to 300 million tons a year from about 267 million tons currently, before reaching 400 million tons in a few years, Puri said. “India’s scale of refining will become its strategic advantage,” Mukesh Sahdev, founder, CEO, and chief oil analyst at XAnalysts said.

Coast Guard deploys oil spill booms around capsized vessel in Quezon | ABS-CBN News— The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has deployed oil spill containment booms around the roll-on/roll-off vessel MV Virgen de Peñafrancia II, which capsized about 10 meters from Ungos Port in Real, Quezon. The vessel was carrying some 1,300 liters of marine diesel in its service tank. PCG spokesperson Commodore Noemie Cayabyab said that while marine diesel naturally dissipates, the Coast Guard still deployed containment booms as a precaution to protect nearby communities from possible oil contamination. “We have directed the shipping company to apply for an Emergency Salvage Permit and undertake measures to safely remove the distressed vessel,” Cayabyab said. In a statement, Starhorse Shipping Lines said it has been cooperating with the PCG since the incident. The Coast Guard said its personnel promptly responded to the incident and rescued all 40 passengers, including two infants, as well as the vessel’s 18 crew members. The PCG and Starhorse Shipping Lines confirmed that all passengers and crew members are safe. The vessel was also carrying 14 rolling cargoes, or vehicles, when it capsized. Based on the initial investigation by the Coast Guard Northern Quezon, the ship’s captain said a mooring rope securing the vessel to the pier snapped due to strong water current, causing its bow to drift about 10 meters away from the port. The vessel reportedly attempted to maneuver back toward the pier, but its bow ran aground before it capsized onto its starboard or right side. The MV Virgen de Peñafrancia II had arrived from Polillo Island and was preparing to disembark its passengers when the incident occurred.

UAE oil spill: Everything we know as beaches close and clean-up drive continues | The National - Authorities across the UAE are stepping up efforts to contain an oil spill from a supertanker off the coast of Umm Al Quwain to limit the environmental impact and protect precious marine life. The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment confirmed the incident last Friday, stating it was the cause of a strong fuel smell reported in a number of emirates. The ministry moved to assure the public that the odour posed no health risk and said clean-up operations were under way, with assessments taking place to best protect the diverse and abundant marine ecosystems that populate local waters. A number of beaches across the country have subsequently been closed as a precautionary measure and to allow environmental teams to carry out key work. The climate ministry said on Friday confirmed that the UAE's technical monitoring and environmental assessment system had detected a tanker oil spill, affecting Umm Al Quwain’s beaches. The ministry did not name the vessel, but international maritime agencies say the Gem No 2 was struck in a suspected Iranian drone attack on October 9 or 10. Twenty-two Indian sailors were rescued from the 330-metre vessel at the time. The ministry said teams immediately launched containment work, including creating cordons, clean-up and remediation with local and federal authorities to “limit environmental impacts”. Coastal surveys, monitoring and assessment are being carried out to help protect the marine environment. Beaches and coastal areas in Umm Al Quwain were temporarily closed as a result to allow technical teams to complete assessments and identify safety and marine protection measures. Fishermen and sea-goers were urged to follow directives from authorities and avoid fishing in affected areas. Sharjah on Wednesday announced the temporary closure of all beaches as part of “proactive precautionary measures” to guard against the threat of marine pollution. Sharjah Government Media Bureau said that specialist teams had been sent to prevent marine pollution from reaching beaches. It called on the public and sea-goers to abide by the key safety measures and to follow official channels for the latest updates. The directive comes after Ras Al Khaimah closed all of its beaches on Saturday “until further notice” and follows a move by Umm Al Quwain to close its beaches and coastal areas. Experts have told The National that containment was vital to limit damage to the environment and the UAE's marine ecosystems. When dealing with oil slicks, preventing pollution from reaching the coast is typically a top priority. If that happens, clean-up becomes harder and habitats can suffer lasting harm. Rob Mortimer, chief executive of Dubai-based Fuelre4m, which supplies substances used to disperse oil slicks, told The National last week that the initial priority should be “to keep it all together” using floating barriers known as booms, allowing as much as possible to be recovered from the sea surface. “It’s reasonably easy to do it while it’s all together,” he said. “Once it’s spreading and moving around, it’s more difficult. Even with the dispersant, you have to cover a greater distance … The longer you leave it, the more the oil gets dispersed.” Inesaf Benzaki, campaigns lead at Greenpeace Mena, said timely containment was particularly important because the Gulf’s semi-enclosed geography limited the exchange of water with the open ocean, potentially allowing pollutants to persist. “As these efforts continue, understanding the potential environmental impact will be important to protecting the area’s marine ecosystems,” she said. Ms Benzaki said the coastline formed part of a wider marine environment where shallow coastal waters, mangroves, seagrass meadows and lagoons provided important habitats for marine life and supported coastal livelihoods. She warned that even after visible oil was removed, residues could remain in coastal sediments and sensitive habitats, prolonging the spill's effects. If oil reached the UAE coastline, it could “threaten sensitive marine and coastal ecosystems”, she said.

Sharjah temporarily closes beaches over oil spill concerns -- Sharjah has announced the temporary closure of beaches across the city as a precautionary measure following an oil spill involving a maritime tanker, amid concerns that marine pollution could reach the emirate’s coastline.The Sharjah Government Media Bureau confirmed the decision in a post on X, stating that the closures were introduced proactively to protect the beaches and safeguard public safety.According to the announcement, specialised teams and relevant authorities across the emirate are taking the necessary measures to prevent oil-related pollution from reaching coastal areas.The temporary closures form part of preventive efforts aimed at minimising the potential environmental impact of the spill and protecting public beach areas.  Specialised teams are coordinating with the relevant authorities to ensure the safety of the coastline and prevent marine contamination.The Sharjah Government Media Bureau also urged residents, visitors and sea-goers to comply with all official instructions and safety guidelines while the precautionary measures remain in place.Members of the public have been advised to obtain updates exclusively through official government channels and refrain from circulating rumours or unverified information.The announcement follows similar precautionary closures in neighbouring emirates. Ras Al Khaimah announced the closure of all public beaches until further notice on October 24, while Umm Al Quwain temporarily closed all beaches and coastal areas on October 23 after authorities confirmed that an offshore tanker oil spill had affected its coastline.

Oil spill off UAE widens, satellite images show, prompting more beach closures  (Reuters) - An oil spill from a ‌damaged tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates has widened, satellite images showed, triggering more beach closures and raising environmental concerns. Images from the European Union's Copernicus satellite observation network dated October 24 show the oil spill has widened over the last few days and is reaching close to the shores of the northern Umm Al Quwain emirate, with dark layers of oil spreading at sea and along its coastline. Since the start of the US-Israeli war with ⁠Iran, attacks on commercial vessels in Gulf shipping lanes have driven up security risks for maritime traffic and heightened fears over the conflict's environmental fallout. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank. The UAE said on Friday that efforts were under way to contain oil leaking from a tanker offshore, with its Ministry of Climate Change and Environment conducting an environmental assessment. Authorities have not named the tanker involved in the incident or said what caused the spill. But experts told Reuters that the spill was coming from a tanker called the Gem No.2, which shipping sources said was a vessel that had ‌been struck ⁠by an unidentified projectile last month, causing a fire that was later extinguished. The images provided by the EU's Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites showed a large oil spill coming from the tanker. Authorities across various northern emirates responded to the spill by restricting access to coastal areas. The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said on Friday that all beaches and coastal areas around the city of Umm Al Quwain were temporarily ⁠closed, while authorities in neighbouring Sharjah shut access to Al Hamriyah Beach as a precaution. "The reported oil spill off Umm Al Quwain is a serious environmental concern. The temporary closure of beaches and coastal areas is a prudent precaution while the extent of the spill and ⁠the movement of the oil are assessed," Nidal Hilal, Professor of Engineering and Director of New York University Abu Dhabi's Water Research Center, told Reuters. In Ras Al Khaimah, known for its beaches and luxury resorts, authorities said on Saturday that all beaches ⁠in the emirate would be closed until further notice. The UAE's marine life "is rich in fish, plants and corals, with over 500 different species of fish inhabiting the Gulf waters," including dolphins and marine turtles, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, or IUCN, says on its website.

Oil pollution from war-damaged tanker polluting UAE beaches - Beaches in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been closed due to oil pollution apparently caused by an attack on a tanker during the war involving Iran, the Environment Ministry said on Sunday. The affected beaches are in the emirates of Sharjah, Umm Al Quwain and Ras Al Khaimah, near Dubai. The ministry said the pollution originated from a leaking oil tanker and that efforts were under way to contain the spill and clean up the affected areas. Residents of Sharjah, which borders Dubai, have reported a strong smell of petrol or gas lingering for several days. The ministry said it was investigating the odour but stressed that there was no health risk. According to Wim Zwijnenburg, a researcher specializing in conflict and environmental issues at the Dutch peace organization PAX, the oil came from the Panamanian-flagged tanker Gem No 2, which is owned by a Taiwan-based company. The 330-metre-long tanker began leaking oil after being attacked two weeks ago, Zwijnenburg told dpa. The resulting oil slick now stretches approximately 90 kilometres. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency reported the attack two weeks ago, saying a projectile had struck the vessel and sparked a fire on board. The affected waters are home to a wide range of marine life, including dugongs, dolphins and sea turtles. Coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass meadows also provide vital habitats and feeding grounds for numerous species of birds and marine animals. Oil pollution in the Gulf has increased significantly since the war involving Iran began in February.

Senior Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish Officials Hold Talks With Iranian Leaders in Tehran - - Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, the three countries that form the new Mecca defense pact, visited Tehran on Monday and met with Iranian officials amid threats of another US-Israeli attack on Iran.The meeting was seen as an effort to avoid another escalation in the US war against Iran, and the Saudi Foreign Ministry described it as an effort to “de-escalate between the parties to the current crisis.”  The delegation included Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin. The visiting officials met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.A brief joint statement issued by the four countries said that the “participants agreed to continue the dialogue to strengthen cooperation amongst the four regional countries, including for peace and security in the region.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that the meeting could lay the groundwork for a new regional security framework that doesn’t rely on outside powers.“From our perspective, the fact that regional countries are seeking to establish, or at least consider, regional security mechanisms based on their own interests and concerns is a welcome development,” Baghaei told reporters. “We have consistently emphasized that regional security can only be ensured by relying on the will and security considerations of the countries of the region.”The meeting came amid Saudi Arabia’s renewed war against Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, an ally of Iran. Araghchi said last week that Iran had offered to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah but that neither side responded to the proposal. Both Pakistan and Turkey have pledged to come to Saudi Arabia’s aid in the war under the Mecca agreement, though it doesn’t appear that the support will go beyond helping fend off Ansar Allah’s strikes on Saudi territory.

Press statement after four-way Tehran meeting between Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia High-level delegations from Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia visited Tehran on Monday and held four-way talks with Iranian officials. From the Iranian side, the meeting was attended by top security official Major General Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Following is the joint statement after the four-way meeting in Tehran: The first meeting of four regional countries was held today, 26 October 2026, in Tehran. His Excellency General Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, hosted the meeting. His Royal Highness Prince Khalid bin Salman, the Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia, High Excellency Field Marshal Asim Munir, the Chief of the Army Staff and Chief of the Defense Forces of Pakistan, and his Excellency Ibrahim Kalin, the head of the Turkish Intelligence Service, participated in the meeting. The participants agreed to continue the dialogue to strengthen cooperation amongst the four regional countries, including for peace and security in the region.

Oil prices fall as hopes emerge for easing Iran war - - Oil prices fell on Monday as hopes of easing hostilities between the United States and Iran eased market concerns. However, continued attacks on Saudi Arabia kept investors worried about global energy supplies. Brent crude and US oil futures both declined after reaching near six-month highs last week.Read Economics Brent crude futures dropped $2.21, or 1.89%, to $114.51 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.23, or 2.16%, to $101.04 per barrel. Both prices were recorded at 9:26 am Pakistan time on Monday. Oil prices had risen sharply on Friday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Brent crude ended the week 6% higher, while WTI gained 2.3%. The latest decline followed renewed diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday as part of efforts to ease tensions in coordination with Washington. Oil market analyst Vandana Hari said concerns about renewed military action had eased temporarily. However, she warned that market volatility could remain high because the risk of further strikes persisted. Attacks continued over the weekend despite the diplomatic efforts. The Iran-backed Houthis said they targeted an airport and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on Saturday. Saudi authorities reported intercepting additional missiles and drones on Sunday. These developments continued to raise concerns about energy production and transportation.Explore History The conflict has also disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Singapore announced plans for Saudi Aramco to begin storing crude oil in Singapore during the second half of 2027. The arrangement aims to strengthen the company’s regional supply chain resilience. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said energy markets might not return to their pre-war conditions in 2027. Analysts also warned that the latest price decline did not necessarily indicate an improvement in supply conditions. With shipping risks and regional hostilities continuing, oil markets remain vulnerable to further price swings.

WTI, Brent Crude Fall on Mideast Diplomatic Talks (DTN) --Oil crude futures fell on Monday morning as Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials prepared to meet in Tehran for talks aimed at preventing a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The diplomatic efforts followed comments from U.S. president Donald Trump on Sunday that he was still deciding whether to pursue an agreement with Iran or take action to "finish them off." Eight months into the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained highly constrained, with just eight vessels transiting the key waterway in the last 24 hours, compared with an average daily rate of nearly 60 vessels, according to vessel tracking data. The front-month ICE Brent dropped $1.90 to $115.947 barrel (bbl) while the NYMEX WTI futures contract for December delivery fell $1.44 to $101.82 bbl. In contrast, the NYMEX ULSD futures contract for November delivery rose $0.0130 to $4.9972 gallon, while front-month NYMEX RBOB futures increased g $0.0369 to $3.2485 gallon. The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.222 points to 101.87 against a basket of foreign currencies. In domestic developments, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to support operations at Phillips 66's 264,000-barrels per day (bpd) Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana following a disruption to crude oil deliveries. The DOE said Friday that the crude will be released from its West Hackberry SPR site in Louisiana for immediate delivery, helping the refinery maintain production of gasoline, diesel and other transportation fuels serving regional markets. U.S. refineries have been running at high utilization rates and postponing winter to meet strong refined-product demand, particularly for diesel, as exports demand has been prioritized over domestic supplies. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last week that U.S. refinery utilization rose to 93.4% during the week ended Oct. 16, up from 88.6% recorded the same week last year.

Oil Market Slips as Regional Diplomacy Offsets Houthi Attacks - The oil market posted an inside trading day on Monday as the market weighed the hopes of easing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran against the continuing attacks on Saudi Arabia. On Sunday, Qatari mediators traveled to Iran as part of an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with the United States. Also, top officials from Mecca Pact countries Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met with Iran’s leaders in Tehran on Monday. Despite the mediation talks, attacks continued on Monday, with Yemen’s Houthis launching new attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday and Egypt’s parliament approving defense support for Saudi Arabia. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading following the news that Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials on Sunday. The oil market remained under pressure amid the efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and sold off to a low of $100.33 by mid-morning. However, the market bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $103.13 amid the news of further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The December WTI contract ended the session down $1.51 at $101.76 and the December Brent contract ended the session down 91 cents at $115.81. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 7.22 cents at $4.9120 and the RB market settling up 69 points at $3.2185. According to the AAA, Americans have paid more for their gasoline and diesel at the pump on average during President Donald Trump’s second term than they did under his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden. Data from the AAA showed that the price of a gallon of regular gasoline has averaged $3.472/gallon since President Trump took office almost two years ago, surpassing $3.471/gallon average for Biden’s term. Prices for diesel, have also surpassed former President Biden’s national average under President Trump, at $4.343/gallon compared with $4.078/gallon. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia was ready to supply the U.S. with any volume of diesel. On Friday, he said that three tankers carrying Russian diesel were on their way to North America. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said that he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to where they were before the Iran war, which began in late February. Saudi Arabia plans to store crude oil at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns from the second half of 2027 to strengthen supply security in the region. Tan See Leng, Singapore’s Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry, said Saudi Aramco will sign a memorandum of understanding with the Energy Market Authority and JTC Corp on Monday and aimed to conclude negotiations in a few months’ time. The rock caverns at Jurong Island can store up to 1.47 million cubic meters or roughly 9 million barrels of liquid hydrocarbons such as crude oil and condensate. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 228,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 30th, increasing available refining capacity by 263,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 81,000 bpd in the week ending November 6th.

Crude oil prices trade lower on reports of renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts - The HinduBusinessLine  - Crude oil futures traded lower on Tuesday morning following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in West Asia. At 10.03 am on Tuesday, December Brent oil futures were at $114.66, down by 0.98 per cent, and December crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $100.75, down by 0.99 per cent. November crude oil futures were trading at ₹9,604 on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹9,723, down by 1.22 per cent, and December futures were trading at ₹9,460 against the previous close of ₹9,567, down by 1.12 per cent. Reports said Saudi Arabia, along with Pakistan and Turkey, held discussions with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to ease tensions in West Asia. Saudi Arabia urged the need to establish open negotiating channels to prevent the return of military escalations in West Asia. This development helped ease fears of oil supply disruption. The meeting in Tehran comes a few days before the US mid-term elections. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump told Fox News that it was ‘getting to be decision time’ on whether to strike a deal with Iran or ‘finish off’. Meanwhile, the Houthis said on Monday that they had attacked East-West crude oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia. The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said on Monday that energy markets were unlikely to return to their pre-war conditions in 2027. Speaking at the Singapore International ⁠Energy Week conference, he said: “I am afraid I don’t see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year, where we were before this war has started.” October copper futures were trading at ₹1,392 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹1,386.10, up by 0.43 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), November guargum contracts were trading at ₹15,150 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹15,309, down by 1.04 per cent. December dhaniya futures were trading at ₹16,564 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹16,692, down by 0.77 per cent.

Oil Prices Rise as Houthi Attack Claims and Middle East Diplomatic Talks Remain in Focus -  Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday, reversing earlier declines as markets assessed diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions involving Iran alongside reports of further attacks on regional energy infrastructure. At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), Brent crude futures were trading 0.5% higher at $116.38 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.6% to $102.35 per barrel. Both benchmarks had traded lower earlier in the session. Brent reached a six-month high last week amid concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy facilities and commercial shipping routes. Diplomatic discussions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have continued as regional governments seek to reduce tensions surrounding the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian leaders in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional security and potential negotiations. Qatar has also maintained contact with Tehran as part of efforts to prevent further escalation. According to reports, the discussions covered attacks attributed to Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, possible negotiations between Washington and Tehran, restrictions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Although diplomatic activity has reduced some immediate concerns about further military escalation, uncertainty remains over whether the discussions will result in an agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump has not ruled out additional military action against Iran. Tehran, meanwhile, has indicated that negotiations with Washington would depend on concessions, including the removal of the U.S. blockade and sanctions affecting Iranian oil exports. Analysts at Capital Economics highlighted the economic effects of the blockade and the factors that could influence Iran's negotiating position. "The U.S. naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran's economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which this affects Iran's negotiating position depends on which faction of the regime is in the ascendency as well as the degree of control that Iran can exert over the Strait of Hormuz," analysts at Capital Economics said in a note. Regional security developments remained a focus after Houthi forces said on Monday that they had targeted pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline and Riyadh airport.Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported attacks. However, the kingdom has reported intercepting missiles and drones in recent days. The claims come as shipping disruptions and threats to energy infrastructure continue to feature in assessments of Middle Eastern oil supply conditions. The Strait of Hormuz remains a central issue in diplomatic discussions because of restrictions affecting commercial shipping through the waterway. IEA Sees Continued Effects on Energy Markets Into 2027 International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Monday that global energy markets were unlikely to return to conditions prevailing before the conflict during 2027. His comments indicated that the effects of the conflict on energy supply chains could extend beyond the current period of military and diplomatic activity. Separately, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco plans to begin storing crude oil in Singapore during the second half of 2027. The initiative, announced by Saudi and Singaporean energy ministers, is intended to improve the resilience of Aramco's regional supply chain.

Oil Steadies with Peace Talks, Houthi Attacks in Focus  (DTN) -- Crude oil and product futures inched lower Tuesday morning as traders weighed renewed diplomacy hopes against supply risks posed by the latest wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. By 10:10 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.41 to trade near $115.40 a barre; (bbl), and NYMEX WTI for December delivery fell $0.18 to $101.58 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slipped $0.0585 to $4.8535 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0269 to $3.1916 gallon. The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.27 points to 102.07 against a basket of foreign currencies. On Monday, mediators from the newly formed Mecca Defence Alliance (MDA) comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, met with Iranian officials in Tehran to deescalate a recently reheating conflict in the Middle East as Iran and its allies have this month markedly stepped up attacks. The result of the meeting, which Riyadh said was aimed at preventing a military reescalation, was a mutual agreement to continue talks. Tehran-allied Houthis in Yemen on Monday claimed to have struck a pumping station along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Saudi Arabia, which was still working on restoring capacity following an attack that last month forced shut the vital crude oil artery, has so far not commented on the alleged attack. Intensifying missile attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, have worsened the supply disruption. Ship tracking data show that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have been slipping continuously throughout October, from around 90% of ante-bellum levels at the beginning of the month to 65% last week. This week, market participants will be on the lookout for results of Israel's general election taking place Tuesday, and on the FOMC's latest interest rate decision to be announced at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Oil falls almost $2 as Middle East talks help ease supply worries (Reuters) - Oil futures settled down by almost $2 a barrel on Tuesday, though prices remain near six-month highs due to the disruption of shipping around the Middle East, and an agreement to end the US-Israeli war with Iran remains elusive. Brent crude futures settled down $1.93, or 1.67%, at $113.88 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $1.86, or 1.83%, at $99.90. Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on Tuesday, a day after holding talks with representatives of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. State media said Khamenei had emphasized the importance of pursuing Iran's interests and maintaining its conditions for ending the war. The four countries agreed to continue talks with a view to strengthening cooperation in peace and security, Iranian state media said. The outlook for peace remains uncertain as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis renewed attacks on key oil producer Saudi Arabia. The Houthis said on Tuesday that they had struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery, the â biggest in the kingdom, with a ballistic missile. "Continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the expanding military presence in the Gulf are keeping supply risks in place, even as diplomatic headlines encourage some of the recent premium to unwind," said Gelber & Associates analysts in a note. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen but the number of vessel attacks has increased, with risks likely to become more acute if US naval support wavers, UBS said. Brent prices surged to more than $117 a barrel last week, their highest since April, after a wave of Iranian attacks on tankers around the strait. UBS said it expects Brent prices to stay elevated near $110 a barrel through the end of the year, an increase from its previous forecast for $100 a barrel at the end of the year. "The impression now is that there is a significant risk premium in crude oil prices for the risk that the US/Israel will attack Iran in the coming weeks," said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. Investors were also looking for cues from Israel's election on Tuesday, which could spell the end of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's time in office, though polling suggested results would be close and that his Likud party could still prevail. "The outcome of today’s parliamentary elections in Israel could also be significant for further developments in the war with Iran, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, if re-elected, might attempt to achieve regime change in Iran," Commerzbank analysts wrote. Crude oil exports from Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports were forecast to fall next month as domestic refiners plan to increase their output after the end of maintenance and to produce more diesel to meet the demands of a deal struck this month between Washington and Moscow, two traders said. Russian oil refineries increased crude processing by 25% in the second half of October compared to the beginning of the month after persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on the plants ceased, three people in the industry told Reuters.

Saudi Refinery attack sends global oil prices higher - Global crude oil prices rose on Wednesday amid renewed concerns over oil supplies from the Middle East following reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, one of the country’s largest oil-processing facilities. Brent crude futures gained $1.48, or 1.3%, to reach $115.36 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.22, or 1.22%, to $101.12 a barrel. On Tuesday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed to have launched a missile attack targeting the Saudi refinery, which has a processing capacity of 550,000 barrels of oil per day. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported attack. The ongoing conflict involving Iran and its allies has heightened concerns about possible disruptions to oil supplies across the Middle East, contributing to renewed upward pressure on international crude prices. Oil prices had fallen by around $2 on Tuesday as hopes for progress in diplomatic discussions eased some concerns about supply disruptions. Reports of the latest attack, however, brought fresh uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories are expected to have edged up slightly. Analysts estimate that stockpiles increased by around 15,000 barrels in the week ended October 23. Traders also expect Russia’s crude oil exports through its Baltic and Black Sea ports to decline next month if domestic refineries increase diesel production following an agreement with the United States.

Oil Rises After Strike on Oil Hub Highlights Supply Risks  (DTN) -- Oil prices rose Wednesday morning as Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure continued to suffer attacks, with the latest Houthi strike on the country's main export hub threatening to further tighten a supply-starved global fuels market. By 9:05 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $1.26 to trade near $115.14 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $1.91 to $101.81 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery advanced $0.0351 to $4.8103 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures inched lower $0.0081 to $3.1295 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, up 0.03 points to 102.195 against a basket of foreign currencies. The Houthis on Tuesday claimed to have struck the 550,000-bpd capacity Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile. Riyadh has not yet commented on any potential damage after reports of a large fire at the oil hub's export terminal circulated Tuesday. Ras Tanura not only houses the country's largest and oldest refinery, which has since 2022 stepped up to become a major diesel supplier for Europe, but is also one of Saudi Arabia's two main oil export hubs. The kingdom's other major crude oil export outlet, the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was targeted by Houthi drones just last week, and the Tehran-allied militia on Monday alleged to have hit an oil pumping station along the East-West pipeline feeding the port. A similar incident last month led to a two-week shutdown of the pipeline and an ensuing export drought. In the U.S., meanwhile, oil inventories may have declined for the fourth consecutive week, an American Petroleum Institute report published Tuesday suggested. Commercial crude oil stocks have held up comparatively well during most of the now nearly eight-month long supply crisis, largely due to the release of more than 133 million bbl from federal emergency stockpiles. While the delivery of significant volumes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ended last month, refiners continued to chase dizzying middle distillate cracks in October. The seasonally highest domestic crude oil demand in decades, as indicated by recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, may have contributed to yet another drop in inventories last week. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended Oct. 23 is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release Wednesday. Market participants are also awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this afternoon. Chances of a rate hike just one month after the central bank increased its target rate for the first time in three years are low, despite sticky inflation remaining far above the 2%-target. CME Group's FedWatch tool attributes a 9.4% chance to a 25-basis point increase, and most observers expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady.

WTI Surges Back Near War Highs: Gasoline Inventories Surge, US Production Rebounds To Record High Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders focused on renewed threats to Middle East energy supplies after Yemen's Houthi militants said they targeted Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery. The Houthis said Tuesday that they struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery in the Eastern Province with a ballistic missile. Prospects for diplomatic talks have failed to generate significant selling interest in oil as traders increasingly focus on developments on the ground, analysts at ANZ Research said Wednesday. “The market is treating this with caution,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS. “With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated.” The analysts said risks to crude supplies continued to increase. “The market is pricing in a larger probability of re-escalation,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. “Oil prices remain sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, specifically around what action, if any, the US may take following the US midterm elections.” So what happened to US inventories? DOE:

• Crude -1.89mm
• Cushing -624k
• Gasoline +3.87mm
• Distillates -1.46mm

Crude inventories drewdown for the fourth week in a row, and stocks at Cushing saw a surprise drop as Gasoline stocks soared... The Trump admin basically left the SPR alone for the eighth week in a row (100k barrel drain)... US Crude production rebounded to a new record high after the hurricane-driven shut-ins... Crude exports jumped to nearly 5 million barrels a day, the highest level seen late May. Exorbitant freight costs have been crimping demand on some routes, but it’s clear that US supplies are still being drawn abroad. Distillates stocks remain at record lows for this time of year... Are elevated gasoline prices finally eroding demand? Weekly US gasoline demand declined by a sizable 624,000 barrels per day for the EIA week. While one data point doesn’t make a trend, it did slipped below the 5-year seasonal range. Meanwhile, the recent pullback in gasoline crack spread is providing some relief to US drivers. Average US retail gasoline prices are now at $4.25 per gallon, a drop of $0.25 per gallon from late-September. WTI remains back above $102... Finally, the U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a possible short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people briefed on the conversations.

Oil prices rise on Yemen fighting, Saudi refinery attack (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up about 1% on Wednesday on renewed concerns about additional energy supply disruptions in the Middle East due to continued fighting in Yemen, an attack ‌on a refinery in Saudi Arabia and worries the US could strike Iran after next week's US midterm elections. Brent futures rose $1.44, or 1%, to settle at $115.32 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.88, or 3%, to settle at $102.78. That price gain pushed Brent back into overbought territory for the fourth time in five days. Yemen's Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday, Yemeni government forces said, after the Iran-aligned group warned people to evacuate the facility as fighting escalated in the impoverished country caught in the wider Middle East conflict. On Tuesday, the Houthis said they had hit Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery with a missile, intensifying their strikes against ⁠the world's second-largest crude producer behind the US. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the strike on the 550,000-barrel-per-day facility. "Crude futures once again pricing in nearer term tighter supplies on news the US is likely to re-start military operations soon, which could be more intense than in the past given the latest attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Middle East allies," In recent weeks, several analysts have said renewed US strikes on Iran could happen sometime after the US midterm elections on November 3. In hopes of ending the now eight-month-long conflict, Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel, an official briefed on the negotiations said. A senior Iranian official, however, said Doha had only put forward unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer. The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday that Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance to succeed ‌and raised ⁠the possibility of the seven-day plan proposed by Tehran being completed in less than a week if implemented. Qatar, along with Pakistan, has led mediation to end the war, which has disrupted global shipping and oil supplies and has spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Another factor supporting crude prices was a US federal report showing a surprise decline in stockpiles. The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that energy firms pulled 1.9 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended October 23. That was a surprise draw compared with the 15,000-barrel ⁠build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and was in line with the 2-million-barrel decline seen in data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, according to sources. , China, meanwhile, issued a fourth batch of fuel export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, a rare additional issue that brings the 2026 total in line with 2025 despite curbs earlier in the year, ⁠three people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. Looking ahead, the market is waiting for an industry meeting on Sunday, where OPEC+ oil producers are expected to keep their December oil output targets steady, people familiar with the matter said. Production in most of the seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — ⁠is below their output targets. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. Crude oil exports from Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports could fall next month as domestic refiners increase diesel output following a deal with Washington this month, traders said.

Oil prices decline after diplomatic push in Iran war -- Oil prices declined on Thursday as traders assessed new diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, aimed at averting potential US military action against Iran. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, slipped to $114.10 a barrel at 7.48am UAE time, after gaining more than 1 per cent in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading above $101 a barrel. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to Iran’s National Security Council ⁠chief Mohsen Rezaei in an effort to revive negotiations, which President Donald Trump played down, saying he did not direct Mr Vance to reach out to the Iranians. "No, what that is ... they need help with medical supplies and various things. He asked me what I thought, I said if you want to do that, that's okay," Mr Trump told reporters when asked if he had directed Mr Vance to send a letter. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, quoting US ‌officials, that Mr Vance sent a letter to Mr Rezaei in a bid to revive peace negotiations. "Basically it's about getting supplies in to help people that are not well," Mr Trump added. The latest diplomatic moves have raised hopes of a resolution, although uncertainty over the conflict and the risk of further disruption to global oil supplies continue to weigh on market sentiment. Oil prices had climbed sharply on Wednesday amid fears of renewed US military action and further disruption to Middle East supplies. Brent settled at $115.32 a barrel, up 1.3 per cent, on Wednesday, while WTI closed at $102.78 a barrel, up 2.9 per cent. "Oil prices remain volatile as markets respond to developments affecting regional production and infrastructure," . Oil remains at multi-month highs as tensions linger in the Middle East. The WSJ reported that Washington has warned several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a possible renewed US military campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Swiss lender UBS said in a report this week it expects Brent crude prices to stay elevated, near $110 a barrel at the end of the year, as Middle Eastern supply remains volatile and geopolitical uncertainty persists. "Global inventories have fallen sharply, with pledged strategic oil reserves releases largely completed. An under-supplied market could push commercial stocks lower and should sustain oil prices. Record freight costs, constrained tanker capacity, and recovering Chinese imports are other factors likely to keep oil prices high," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "Uncertainty around our forecasts remains elevated, reflecting both the unpredictable nature of the Middle East conflict, and the pace of recovery in Gulf production and global oil demand."

Oil Eases as Europe Readies First Emergency Diesel Batch - (DTN)- - Oil prices eased Thursday morning as traders assessed the latest diplomatic push for a temporary peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. In Europe, the first tranche of 42 million barrels (bbl) of oil and diesel from emergency reserves is set to be delivered over the coming days. By 09:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $1.03 to trade near $114.29 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery fell $1.34 to $101.44 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slid $0.1302 to $4.685 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0422 to $3.1312 gallon. The U.S. dollar index remained steady, inching up 0.015 points to 102.045 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S. Vice President JD Vance reportedly reached out to senior leadership in Iran to negotiate a temporary peace deal. Tehran and Washington have since the breakdown of the last ceasefire mostly exchanged messages via mediators. Iran has not yet commented on the Vice President's proposal to revive direct talks which would involve the most senior government officials to date, but on Wednesday reiterated their openness to a diplomatic solution. Elsewhere, France is set to start deliveries of 10 million bbl of diesel from emergency reserves the country had committed to last month as part of a coordinated European 42 million bbl release of equal amounts of crude oil and diesel. The push came less than a month into the agreed upon 3-month window as Paris was seeking to ease domestic tensions after high fuel prices recently helped spark violent protests. Diesel inventories also continued to decline in the U.S., Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday showed, with nationwide stocks of ultra-low sulfur diesel trailing year-ago levels by more than 10%. Commercial crude oil inventories, meanwhile, recorded the fourth consecutive weekly decline, coinciding with the end of the release of significant volumes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve which until September helped meet the highest domestic crude oil demand in nine years, and the seasonally highest in decades.

Oil prices settles lower as diplomacy hopes offset some Mideast supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday in a choppy session as hopes for peace talks between the US and Iran offset some concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from an escalating regional conflict. Brent crude futures ‌settled down 44 cents, or 0.38%, to $114.88 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 78 cents, or 0.76%, at $102. Both benchmarks fell by more than $2 a barrel earlier in the session, unwinding some of Brent's 1.3% and WTI's 3% Wednesday gains. US oil firms ExxonMobil and Chevron have cancelled plans for their executives to travel to the United Arab Emirates' biggest oil show next week, citing security concerns, two sources familiar with the developments told Reuters. Yemen's Houthis on Thursday said they attacked Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery, Rabigh oil refinery, an Aramco facility in Abqaiq and airports in the country. There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia on the Houthi statement. Those reports of a new ⁠spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session, said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. Earlier, US Vice President JD Vance sought to revive peace negotiations by sending a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter. "Oil prices are under pressure today amid renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war, an official briefed on the negotiations said, but a senior Iranian official dismissed it as unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer. Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and flagged the possibility of completing its seven-day plan in less than a week if adopted. Concerns over intensified attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis and fears the Trump administration may launch an attack on Iran following the US midterm elections on November 3 limited the decline. The US military's senior officer overseeing the Middle East met US President Donald Trump at ‌the White ⁠House on Thursday to outline military options in Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing US officials and other people with direct knowledge of the meeting. The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said it had destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the group towards the kingdom's eastern region early on Thursday, as hostilities between the two sides show no signs of abating. "The Saudi-led coalition's interception of another Houthi missile early Thursday shows that threats to regional infrastructure remain active despite the renewed push for negotiations," The Houthis attacked Aden's airport on Wednesday, Yemeni government forces said. On Wednesday, ⁠the Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery with a missile, stepping up strikes against the world's second-largest crude producer after the US. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that three tankers hit sea mines, exploded and caught fire while attempting to use an unauthorised route south of the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. Some expectations of rising crude and diesel production from Russia also kept a lid on prices. "There ⁠are mixed signals coming from Russia about what they are going to do about fulfilling their diesel promise to the US, that is helping keep prices aloft," There have been no further confirmed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure since the October 15 strike on the Ryazan refinery, JPMorgan analysts said in a note late on Wednesday. "The silence has allowed Russian refinery runs to ⁠rebound by 350,000 barrels a day last week, to 4 million barrels a day." US crude and distillate inventories fell due to higher demand, while gasoline stockpiles rose in the week ended October 23, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. However, analysts at ship-tracking firm Kpler highlighted that export figures reported by the EIA were higher than their own tracking systems.

Is Something Else Influencing the Value of Oil?  -- What is the price of oil? This is the question analysts at J.P. Morgan, including the Head of Global Commodities Strategy at the company, Natasha Kaneva, asked in a report sent to Rigzone by Kaneva on Friday, adding that, “eight months into the war with Iran, what should be a straightforward question has become surprisingly hard to answer”. “Oil is once again flowing from the Middle East, and our pricing model puts Brent’s fair value at $94 per barrel,” the analysts said in the report. “Yet Brent is trading near $114, almost $20 above what fundamentals imply. Is this simply the price of geopolitical risk or is something else influencing the value of oil?” they asked. The analysts revealed in the report that they have never been “fully comfortable” with the concept of a “geopolitical risk premium”. They outlined that this is not because geopolitical risk is irrelevant but because “it is remarkably difficult to quantify”. “Over the years, we have tested conflict indicators, geopolitical risk indices, and even the performance of traditional safe-haven assets as explanatory variables in our oil pricing model,” the analysts pointed out. “None improved the model’s fit,” they added. The analysts went on to note in the report that any risk premium tends to be fleeting. “Historically, sustained deviations of more than five percent above our model’s fair value have lasted on average just 3.8 months before prices either converged back to fundamentals or slipped into a discount,” they said. The J.P. Morgan analysts did concede that a model built solely on oil market fundamentals cannot capture every movement in prices. “Uncertainty can push prices away from fair value, sometimes by a wide margin,” they said. They added, however, that before they attribute today’s nearly $20 gap entirely to geopolitics, “we need to ask whether something else has changed in the way oil is being priced”. “One reason to question this explanation is the growing divergence in physical crude markets,” they pointed out. “Crude grades that once moved broadly in line with benchmark prices are now trading at sharply different levels,” they said. “With freight costs reaching extraordinary highs, the key question is whether transportation costs are merely widening physical price differentials or whether they are also influencing the benchmarks against which these barrels are priced,” they continued. The scale of the divergence in physical crude prices is “striking”, the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in the report. “So far in October, the UAE’s Upper Zakum crude price has averaged just $71 per barrel, Congo’s Djeno $79, and Brazil’s Mero $89,” they noted. “At the other end of the spectrum, North Sea grades have commanded substantially higher prices, with Forties averaging $127 per barrel, Johan Sverdrup $118, and Ekofisk $130 - against an average Brent price of $106,” they added. “Even after accounting for differences in crude quality and refining characteristics, the nearly $60 spread between the cheapest and most expensive grades is extraordinary, particularly as all prices exclude freight to the final destination,” they said. The analysts noted in the report that, “to understand this divergence, it helps to start with the basics”. “The world’s two main crude benchmarks - Brent and WTI - reflect what the market is willing to pay today for crude delivered in a specific future month, but neither includes the cost of transporting the oil,” they said. “These are the prices we forecast. Dated Brent, which assesses physical crude cargoes loading in the near term, is also quoted on a free-on-board (FOB) equivalent basis, which - like futures pricing - excludes freight to the final destination,” they added. Other grades are priced differently, the analysts pointed out. “Russian Urals has traditionally been priced on both a free-on-board (FOB) basis at Russian export terminals - where the buyer covers delivery costs - and on a delivered basis, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF) at destination ports - where the producer pays the expenses,” they said. “Historically, however, it made little difference to the overall crude price: freight from Russia to Europe was typically only around $2 per barrel,” they added. Most Middle Eastern crudes are assessed through yet another mechanism, the analysts highlighted in the report. “Saudi grades, Iraq’s Basrah and Kuwait Export Crude are more commonly sold under term contracts using official selling prices (OSPs),” they pointed out. “Rather than negotiating a fixed outright price for each cargo, producers typically set a monthly premium or discount to a regional benchmark - generally Oman/Dubai for Asian buyers, and often Dated Brent (or a related Brent reference) for European buyers,” they said. That structure makes OSPs particularly hard to interpret, the analysts noted, adding that, “unlike a freely traded spot price, an OSP is set by the producer and reflects a blend of market conditions, competing crude grades, refinery economics, and commercial strategy”. “A reduction in the OSP differential may signal weakening demand, but it could just as easily represent an attempt to protect market share or compensate buyers for higher transportation costs,” they said. The analysts outlined that they began to see this dynamic in early July 2026. “After the U.S. signed the MoU with Iran, more Hormuz-linked barrels flowed back into the market, but buying remained cautious,” they said. “Producers therefore had to compete more aggressively for market share in Asia,” they added. “Saudi Arabia’s July 6 announcement underscored that shift. It set some of the deepest discounts for August deliveries to Asian buyers - levels comparable only to the Covid period - and the month-on-month cut was described as the steepest in roughly two decades,” they continued. “By October, those discounts had widened further, moving from roughly $3 to $7 versus Dubai for November delivery across different grades - a $14 per barrel swing in the differential in just four months,” they highlighted. The analysts stated in the report, however, that it would be misleading to read this as a corresponding decline in the underlying value of Saudi crude. “At least part of the adjustment reflects an effort to compensate refiners for extraordinary freight costs and preserve the competitiveness of Saudi barrels,” they said. The analysts went on to highlight that the adjustment has been particularly visible in the Atlantic Basin. “Brazilian, Guyanese, and some West African grades initially benefited from higher crude prices as the war disrupted Middle Eastern supply,” they said. “More recently, however, physical differentials have begun to move in the opposite direction to freight rates,” they added. “As the cost of transporting these barrels increased, their FOB values weakened to preserve competitiveness in destination markets,” they continued. The scale of the adjustment is “remarkable”, according to the analysts, who pointed out that, on October 19, Guyana’s Payara Gold was assessed at a $26 per barrel discount to Brent, “its weakest level since assessment began in 2023”. In West Africa, Congo’s Djeno crude traded at a $34 discount, the analysts highlighted, adding that this had widened by $25 per barrel in just three weeks. “These moves are not simply indications of weakening demand for individual grades,” they said. “They largely reflect the rising cost of transporting crude, which is increasingly being absorbed through lower prices at the point of loading,” they added. The analysts noted that the divergence becomes even clearer when comparing crudes of broadly comparable quality destined for Asia and Europe. “In April, the average FOB price of crude bound for Asia was $106 per barrel, compared with $111 for Europe,” they said. “So far in October, the Asian-bound price has averaged $93, while Europe’s has slipped only to $107, widening the gap from $5 to $14,” they added. “Yet the picture reverses once freight is included. Over the same period, the average delivered cost of crude to Asia has risen from $116 to $131, while Europe’s has increased from $116 to $120,” they continued. “The implied transportation cost for Asia has therefore surged from $10 to $38, compared with an increase from $5 to $13 for Europe. Crude destined for Asia is now $14 cheaper at the loading point, yet $11 more expensive once delivered,” they said. The J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in the report that this is the “geography premium” at work. “Higher freight costs are being absorbed partly through lower FOB prices - particularly for barrels traveling longer distances - while refiners still face sharply higher delivered costs,” they said. “The result is a market in which crude can become more expensive for the buyer even as it becomes less valuable to the producer,” they added.

Oil Prices Jump Amid More Shipping Incidents in Strait of Hormuz - Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for sharp monthly gains after fresh maritime security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about Middle East energy supplies. Brent crude futures for December, which expire on Friday, rose $2.26, or 2 percent, to $117.14 a barrel. The more active January contract gained $2.30 to $113.10. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $1.94, or 1.9 percent, to $103.94 a barrel. For October, Brent was on course to gain about 13 percent, while WTI was set for a monthly increase of roughly 15 percent. The gains follow a series of security incidents reported on Thursday in and around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. The company operating the vessel reported no crew injuries or environmental damage, while authorities continued to investigate. In a separate incident, UKMTO said another outbound vessel was on fire about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The cause of the blaze, the condition of the crew, and the extent of any damage remained unknown. Earlier on Thursday, Maritime Trade Operations reported that a dhow caught fire following what it described as a maritime security incident about nine nautical miles north of Khasab. Regional authorities later confirmed the vessel had listed and sunk after the blaze, but said all crew members had been safely evacuated. UKMTO advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report any suspicious activity while investigations continue. The latest incidents add to months of repeated attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the onset of the Iran war in February. The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and is a critical route for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers. Analysts said the disruption was increasing concerns that energy exports could face further interruptions as winter approaches. “European natural gas prices rallied further yesterday, with TTF settling 4.85 percent higher,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities at ING, wrote in a Thursday market note. He said prices had climbed above 100 euros ($111.4) per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2022, with “little sign of imminent relief in Persian Gulf LNG flows.” Patterson added that “the outlook appears more dire amid the risk of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran following the U.S. midterm elections next week.” He also said QatarEnergy had reportedly extended force majeure declarations for several buyers until the end of the year, while unplanned outages in Norway and forecasts for colder weather across northwest Europe were adding to supply concerns. European Union gas storage facilities are currently just below 75 percent full, according to the note, with more sustained seasonal withdrawals expected as temperatures fall. The latest shipping incidents followed renewed attacks linked to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia. In a statement issued on Thursday, the Houthis said they had carried out six military operations against targets in Saudi Arabia, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh oil refineries, the Abqaiq Aramco facility, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, and military positions in Najran. Saudi coalition spokesman Turki Al-Malki said coalition air defenses had intercepted and destroyed ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis toward Riyadh and western Saudi Arabia over the past two days. The escalation comes as Yemen has become another front in the wider conflict between Iran and the United States and its regional allies. Diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing a broader regional war are ongoing. High-level delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional security. The parties agreed to continue discussions on expanding cooperation, although no timetable for future meetings was announced. Qatari mediators also visited Tehran this week, working in coordination with the United States to reduce tensions. Pakistan and Qatar had previously helped broker a June agreement that led to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and launched broader negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. The ceasefire collapsed on July 8 after U.S. President Donald Trump declared it over and ordered strikes, accusing Iran of attacking ships in the strategic waterway. Trump said on Wednesday that Vice President JD Vance’s recent outreach to Iran was intended to help facilitate medical supplies after reports that Vance had written to Tehran’s senior security leadership seeking to revive peace negotiations. Iran has acknowledged receiving the letter but has not yet responded, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, which said Tehran expects Washington to meet its conditions before negotiations can advance.

Oil Rises Amid Growing Escalation Risks, Tanker Attacks (DTN) -- Oil prices rose Friday morning after a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and market participants weighed the growing likelihood of a reescalation in the U.S.-Iran war following next week's U.S. elections. By 9:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $2.33 to trade near $117.21 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $1.86 to $103.86 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery advanced $0.089 to $4.825 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures appreciated $0.041 to $3.226 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.235 points to 101.655 against a basket of foreign currencies. Iranian attacks on shipping have intensified over the past few weeks, with October recording more incidents than any other month since the start of the conflict at the end of February. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center late Thursday reported that yet another tanker suffered damages after being hit by an explosives-rigged boat in the Strait of Hormuz. The maritime safety watchdog has recorded 43 security incidents involving commercial vessels in the region so far this month, 30 of which were attacks on tankers. Uncertainty over the direction of the war following the U.S. midterm elections remained elevated amid conflicting signals. A Qatari delegation reportedly arrived in Tehran Friday as part of recently stepped-up mediation efforts, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance earlier this week proposed a return to direct negotiations. At the same time, a growing number of reports are suggesting that the U.S. and Israel were independently considering launching fresh attacks on Iran after next week's elections. U.S. President Donald Trump, who was last briefed on strike options Thursday, has ramped up bellicose rhetoric on the campaign trail this month, hinting at delivering a decisive blow to permanently end the war. Amassing U.S. forces in the region additionally fed re-escalation concerns. Four weeks ago, the U.S. launched the third aircraft carrier group toward the region, followed a day later by the deployment of amphibious landing units, expected to arrive at Iranian shores by the end of November. Crude oil futures, meanwhile, were on track for the fourth consecutive monthly increase, reflecting both returning and newly emerging risks to Middle Eastern oil exports. On Friday morning, front-month Brent and WTI futures were trading 13% and 15% higher than at the beginning of October, eyeing their largest month-on-month increases since the July rally that was fueled by the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Oil prices jump as tanker attack threatens Strait of Hormuz shipments -Oil prices rose more than 2% Friday after an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. Crude benchmarks were heading for a fourth consecutive monthly gain as traders assessed the risk of further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. January Brent futures advanced 2.55%, to $113.62 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.32%, to $104.37, according to the latest market snapshots. The rally followed a tanker attack near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed threats to Saudi energy infrastructure, Reuters reports. Brent was on course for a monthly increase of approximately 13%, while WTI was heading for a 15% gain. A tanker traveling through the Strait of Hormuz was struck Friday by explosives attached to its hull from a small boat, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency. The incident marked the first known successful attack involving limpet mines in the waterway since the US-Iran war began in February. The perpetrators had not been identified. The incident raised concerns about shipping security along one of the world's most important oil transportation routes. Although Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered above prewar levels, repeated attacks on vessels threaten to disrupt deliveries and increase transportation costs. Security risks extended beyond the strait. Yemen's Houthi movement said Thursday it had attacked several Saudi Arabian energy facilities, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an oil production installation in Abqaiq. A Saudi-led coalition separately reported intercepting a cruise missile targeting the kingdom's western region. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran Friday as part of efforts to restart negotiations between Washington and Iran. The diplomatic activity followed reports that US Vice President JD Vance had contacted Iranian officials about humanitarian assistance and possible renewed talks. However, significant disagreements remain over the conditions for an agreement. Investors are also watching the approaching US midterm elections and Israel's parliamentary vote, which could influence regional policy and military decisions. The security situation has affected corporate activity. ExxonMobil and Chevron canceled plans for executives to attend a major energy industry conference in the United Arab Emirates next week. Oil prices continued to rise as attacks on tankers and energy facilities heightened concerns about the security of Middle Eastern supplies. Although crude exports from the region remain relatively strong, the threat of further military escalation and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is keeping traders cautious about the stability of global oil flows. Saxo Bank expects crude prices to remain within a higher range of $70 to $90 a barrel after the conflict ends, compared with approximately $60 to $70 before the war. The outlook reflects the possibility of renewed hostilities and the need to rebuild depleted inventories.

Oil jumps 2%, settles at 6-month highs on fears of escalation in Iran - Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday and settled at their highest levels since the end of April, as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections, ‌with an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighting supply risks. Brent crude futures for December, which expired on Friday, settled up $2.76, or 2.4%, at $117.64 a barrel, after touching a high of $118. The more active January contract gained $2.63 to $113.43. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled $2.12, or 2.08%, higher at $104.12. For the month, Brent finished 13.6% higher, while WTI rose 15.2%. “Traders will remain focused on oil flows out of the Middle East and the likely escalation by US and allied forces,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. On Friday, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosive devices attached by a small ⁠boat, said the UKMTO, the British maritime security service. It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack in the strait, the key sea outlet for Gulf crude and fuel supplies. It was the first known successful strike in the waterway using limpet mines, explosives that are attached to a ship’s hull from a small boat, since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, maritime sources said. The US ordered non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia effective October 23 due to safety risks, the US embassy in Riyadh said on Friday, citing Houthi attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militants said on Thursday they had attacked several sites in Saudi Arabia, including the large Ras Tanura oil refinery, the Rabigh refinery and a production facility in Abqaiq owned by state oil company Saudi Aramco. A Saudi-led coalition also said it had intercepted a cruise missile launched by the Houthis towards the kingdom’s western region. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of coordinated efforts to ‌reach a ⁠deal between the US and Iran, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iran to help the country get medical supplies, after US media reported Vance had written to Tehran’s top security official to revive peace talks. Iran has received a letter from Vance, but it has not responded to it yet, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, adding that Tehran wants the US to meet its conditions and “any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable.” Oil prices could become even more ⁠volatile in the next couple of weeks due to Israel’s recent elections and the US midterm elections on November 3, according to a Saxo Bank briefing on Thursday. The Danish bank said crude is expected to trade in a higher range of $70 to $90 a barrel even after the conflict ends, compared with a pre-war range of $60 to $70. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose in October from September, two ⁠of three ship-tracking companies said, despite Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf and claims by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis of attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The US oil rig count, an indicator of future output, rose by two. US crude oil output increased in August, while demand for crude oil and petroleum products declined, the US Energy Information ⁠Administration (EIA) said in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report on Friday. Meanwhile, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said an armed group shut a valve on Friday on the main Hamada crude oil pipeline, which links the Hamada field to the Zawiya refinery. It said the closure of the valve had halted the flow of about 15,000 barrels per day.

Oil prices rise for the fourth consecutive month amid the war with Iran | УНН -- Oil prices rose on Friday, October 30, and are expected to post a fourth consecutive month of gains after an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the continuing supply risks from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth month. UNN reports, citing Reuters. Brent crude futures for December delivery, which expire on Friday, rose by $1.20, or 1.04%, to $116.08 per barrel as of 3:23 GMT (5:23 a.m. Kyiv time). The more active January contract rose by $1.39 to $112.19. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.37, or 1.34%, to $103.37. During the month, Brent crude prices rose by nearly 11%, while WTI prices increased by 14%. On Friday, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime route for oil and fuel supplies from the Persian Gulf — was hit by explosive devices attached from a small vessel, UKMTO reported. The attackers have not yet been identified. "Ongoing fighting in the Strait of Hormuz area, amid doubts about the viability of a diplomatic path, is keeping oil prices high as markets anticipate an escalation of the conflict in the coming weeks," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee. On Thursday, the Houthis claimed attacks on several facilities in Saudi Arabia, including the largest oil refinery in Ras Tanura, the refinery in Rabigh and a production facility in Abqaiq owned by state-run Saudi Aramco, while the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a cruise missile launched by the Houthis toward the kingdom's western region. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday, October 29, that Vice President J.D. Vance had asked Iran to help the country obtain medicines after U.S. media reported that Vance had written to Tehran's top security official asking him to resume peace talks. Iran received a letter from Vance but has not yet responded to it, the country's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, adding that Tehran wants the United States to meet its conditions and that "any position contrary to these conditions is unacceptable." Amid concerns about security in the Middle East, ExxonMobil and Chevron canceled plans for their executives to attend the United Arab Emirates' largest oil exhibition next week, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters. Price forecast Oil prices could become even more volatile over the next couple of weeks because of Israel's parliamentary elections and the U.S. midterm congressional elections, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said at a media briefing in Singapore on Thursday. Hansen said that heightened uncertainty makes price forecasting more difficult, but he expects oil to trade in a higher range of $70 to $90 per barrel compared with the prewar level of $60–70, even after the conflict ends, due to the risk of renewed hostilities and the need to replenish inventories.

Wall Street Banks Raise Oil Price Forecasts as Supply Fears Deepen - Brent Crude oil prices are set to end the year at about $105 per barrel, bank ANZ said on Friday as it hiked its projection by $10 a barrel on the assumption that Middle East oil exports, shipping availability, and fuel supplies will remain constrained through December."The forecast does not require another geopolitical shock," ANZ's strategists wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.   “Rather, it assumes that the constraints already confronting Middle Eastern exports, shipping and refined-product markets persist through year-end."Of course, any escalation in the Middle East would send oil prices even higher, the bank said.  The world is out of buffers to curb new shocks, ANZ notes."Eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply have materially weakened the buffers that absorbed the initial shock," according to the bank's strategists.Earlier this week, UBS also raised its Brent Crude forecasts to $110 a barrel at the end of 2026, up from a previous projection of $100 per barrel, amid elevated uncertainty about the Middle East conflict, production and exports from the region, and global oil demand. Goldman Sachs, for its part, sees Brent at $90 per barrel at the end of this year and an annual average at $80 in 2027, but "the risks to our forecasts are clearly skewed to the upside," Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of Oil Research, said last week.Goldman estimates the baked-in risk premium in oil at about $27 per barrel for Brent at the moment."But for the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution that market participants see as sustainable," Struyven said.Oil prices, however, are heading for a fourth consecutive monthly gain on Friday, as the Houthis are escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia and the market braces for a potential new round of U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.

Tanker Disabled in Strait of Hormuz Attack, Another Vessel Reported on Fire in Persian Gulf  -Two new maritime security warnings issued Monday point to continued dangers for commercial shipping in the Middle East, with one tanker confirmed disabled by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz and another vessel reportedly on fire in the northern Persian Gulf. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it received a verified, time-late report of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz on October 23 at 0839 UTC. The impact disabled the vessel, although all crew members were reported safe. UKMTO did not identify the tanker or provide details about the extent of the damage. No assessment of possible environmental impacts was available. The incident was disclosed three days after it occurred, highlighting the continuing delays in reporting attacks against commercial vessels in the region. In a separate warning issued Monday, UKMTO said it had received multiple third-party reports of a vessel on fire approximately 63 nautical miles southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq, in the northern Persian Gulf. The vessel’s identity, crew status, extent of damage and potential environmental impact were unknown. UKMTO classified the report as suspicious activity rather than a confirmed attack. The cause of the fire remains unclear, and authorities are investigating. The two reports come amid continued attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with violence increasingly extending into the wider Persian Gulf. In its latest advisory, issued October 25, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) maintained its SEVERE threat assessment for the Strait of Hormuz, warning that further deliberate attacks were highly likely. The assessment also kept the threat level across the wider Persian Gulf at SUBSTANTIAL, citing five attacks inside the Gulf since October 7, including incidents near anchorages and ship-to-ship transfer areas. JMIC reported 156 confirmed maritime security incidents across the region since March 1. That figure was published before UKMTO disclosed the latest verified tanker attack. The advisory highlighted another recent incident involving an LPG tanker struck by an unidentified projectile on October 22, approximately seven nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman. That vessel subsequently reached an anchorage off Khor Fakkan. According to JMIC, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity continues to include attacks, attempted attacks, drone overflights, surveillance and radio communications directing commercial vessels toward Iranian-controlled routes. The latest incidents also underscore the growing risks beyond the Strait itself, particularly in the Persian Gulf, where ships waiting at anchor or conducting cargo transfers remain exposed. Despite efforts by the United States to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, commercial traffic remains well below historical levels. JMIC reported 101 U.S.-facilitated vessel transits between October 22 and 24, compared with a historical average of approximately 138 vessels per day in 2025. The figures use different reporting methodologies, with the U.S. tally covering assisted transits rather than all commercial movements. Separate tracking data showed only single-digit daily transits outside the U.S.-facilitated system. Congestion also remains severe. As of October 25, JMIC estimated approximately 492 vessels were waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz, with large concentrations near Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and other regional anchorages. The continuing disruption comes as U.S. forces enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports while attempting to maintain safe passage for other commercial shipping. JMIC warned that vessels using the Strait face persistent threats from projectile attacks, possible renewed mining activity and electronic navigation interference. UKMTO has advised vessels operating in the affected areas to exercise caution and report suspicious activity while investigations continue.

Persian Gulf Strait Authority issues warning to COSCO shipping over repeated transit violations The Persian Gulf Strait Authority has issued a decisive warning to all parties affiliated with the COSCO Shipping Company, declaring that all vessels belonging to the company will face legal action starting November 1 for repeated violations of maritime transit regulations. In a statement released on Tuesday, the Authority confirmed that vessels belonging to COSCO Shipping, a Chinese multinational transportation service conglomerate, have committed the highest number of transit violations over the past three months. The statement noted that proportionate enforcement actions have already been taken against at least seven of the company's vessels for defying maritime regulations. "All cargo owners, stakeholders, and insurance service providers are hereby warned that starting from November 1, all vessels belonging to this company will face legal action," the Authority declared. The warning comes as the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to strictly enforce its sovereign maritime regulations in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Following the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran earlier this year, and the subsequent US violations of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, Iranian authorities declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to unauthorized traffic. The IRGC Navy has repeatedly warned that any vessel attempting to transit through the strategic waterway without coordinating with Iranian maritime authorities will face severe consequences. The enforcement measures include strict monitoring of transit routes, mandatory coordination with Iranian port authorities, and the prosecution of vessels found to be in violation of the established maritime protocols. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been at the forefront of enforcing these regulations, ensuring that all commercial shipping in the region adheres to the sovereign rights of the Islamic Republic as the coastal state controlling the strategic chokepoint.

Iran Cracks Down on Sinokor Tankers - Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said it would take "legal action" against tankers belonging to Sinokor, the world's biggest oil tanker owner that has carried millions of barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. "The vessels belonging to Sinokor Shipping Company have committed the highest number of crossing violations over the past 3 months, and so far, appropriate enforcement actions have been taken against at least 7 of them," the PGSA said in a social media post, without specifying what those actions were. Iran established the PGSA earlier this year as a point of contact for transits through Hormuz. It has since published a list of vessels that it says have violated its rules for crossing the waterway. Meanwhile Sinokor is the world's largest owner of supertankers and has emerged as a vital cog in keeping the world's oil moving, by pouncing on the lucrative trade of getting barrels out of Hormuz. The company's ships accounted for nearly 40 percent of all the crude oil that flowed out from the Strait of Hormuz last month, more than the next three biggest players combined, according to data from intelligence firms and maritime databases. Since the Iran war began, there's been a tussle for control of the world's most important energy chokepoint. While it was largely shut in the immediate aftermath of the conflict, there's been a persistent increase in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz since, and most trackers now see total shipments from the Middle East around pre-war levels. "All cargo owners, stakeholders, and insurance service providers are hereby warned that as of November 1, legal action will be taken against all vessels of this company," the PGSA said in its post. Sinokor didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iran claims four tankers hit mines in Hormuz as U.S. strike fears grow - Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen’s Houthis claimed missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, escalating pressure on two fronts as the U.S. reportedly weighs renewed military action against Tehran after Tuesday’s midterm elections. The flare-up is fueling concern among regional officials and analysts that fighting could resume around the Nov. 3 vote, even as Vice President JD Vance seeks to reopen talks with Iran. The developments underscore the competing diplomatic and military tracks now shaping the conflict, which now in its ninth month. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said three tankers caught fire after striking mines along what it called an “unauthorized southern route” near the Omani coast. Iran’s army said a fourth burned east of the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a small boat attaching two explosive devices to a tanker about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The blasts sparked an engine-room fire that disabled the vessel, the agency said, adding that the crew was safe.  Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Thursday also challenged a U.S. Central Command statement that American forces had cleared mines from the primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz.The vital waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies, and has seen traffic plummet to single-digit daily passings since the war started in late February. “Prove the claim that the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines with independent evidence, not a statement,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said. “The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is determined in the air, on land and at sea, not on social media and in America’s media war rooms.” Iran-backed Houthi forces said they launched six military operations across Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and oil facilities, despite a rare meeting of Saudi and Iranian senior officials in Tehran earlier this week. The two sides had agreed to resolve regional differences through dialogue. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the attacks but said their air defenses have intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone launched toward the holy Mecca region. Earlier this week, Vance sent a letter via Qatari mediators to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing a framework for talks. President Donald Trump, when asked whether he directed the outreach, said “no,” framing it as Iran needing “help with medical supplies and various things.” “He [Vance] asked me what I thought. I said, ‘if you want to do that, that’s OK,’” Trump said. Reports have emerged that the Trump administration may resume military actions in the Middle East after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Adm. Brad Cooper, top U.S. commander in the region briefed Trump on military options for Iran in a rare in-person visit to the White House, the Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, citing unnamed U.S. officials close to the matter. The meeting, joined by other cabinet members, covered other topics including the continuing U.S. blockade, according to the report.

Iranian President Holds Talks With Qatar Emir in Moscow -- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Moscow on Tuesday, Iran’s PressTV has reported. The meeting, which took place on the sidelines of the 8th Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) summit, marked the second day in a row of high-level engagement between Iran and a Gulf Arab state, as Saudi Arabia’s defense minister was in Tehran on Monday for a four-way meeting that involved senior officials from Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran.According to PressTV, during the talks in Moscow, Pezeshkian and al-Thani “reviewed the latest status of relations between Tehran and Doha and underscored the importance of expanding political and economic ties, as well as utilizing existing capacities to elevate the level of mutual cooperation.” Readouts of the meeting made no mention of the US war with Iran, though the talks came amid threats of another major US-Israeli attack against the Islamic Republic, which is expected to happen sometime after the US midterm elections. Iranian leaders have been warning that any renewed US strikes would lead to heavier retaliatory attacks, which will involve more strikes on Gulf Arab states hosting US military bases.In the meantime, the US continues to enforce a blockade on Iran, and Iranian forces continue to attack oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Addressing the GECF on Tuesday, Pezeshkian said the disruptions to security and the energy market were the result of US-Israeli aggression.“The military aggression by the United States and the Zionist regime against the Islamic Republic of Iran, occurring in two phases and in the midst of political negotiations, was one of the most regrettable and dangerous events against global security,” Pezeshkian said. “These illegal actions have seriously jeopardized the stability of energy markets and must be condemned and effectively countered by the world’s major energy suppliers.”

Yemen: Saudi Airstrikes on Civilian Homes, Cement Factory Workers’ Housing Kill 17 - - Saudi airstrikes pounded Yemen’s Hodeidah province and the capital, Sanaa, on Saturday, killing at least 17 civilians as the US-backed bombing campaign continues to have a devastating impact on Yemeni civilians. One strike on Saturday hit housing units for workers at a cement factory in the Sanaa Governorate, killing eight civilians, including four children and three women, according to the latest numbers from the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government. Fifteen others, including eight children, were wounded. A separate strike in the capital city of Sanaa hit a home belonging to a man identified as Fouad al-Shaabi, killing at least four people, including two children, according to a local source speaking to Yemen’s SABA news agency. A woman and a man were also injured by the bombing.   Another Saudi strike hit a civilian home in Hodeidah, a province on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. According to a source speaking to SABA, the home belonged to Abdul-Wahid al-Wasabi, and the Saudi strike killed him, his two wives, and two of their children. A girl, al-Wasabi’s daughter, was also reported wounded in the attack.Saudi airstrikes against civilian targets continued on Sunday, with the Health Ministry reporting that Saudi warplanes bombed a maternity hospital in the Taiz province. The ministry said the strike caused “significant damage” but didn’t report any casualties. “Targeting hospitals and health facilities constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law and reveals the aggression’s determination to deprive the Yemeni people of their right to safe healthcare,” the Health Ministry wrote on Telegram. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen was notorious for bombing civilian areas during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict has followed a similar pattern. The US is strongly backing the Saudi bombing campaign by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support the US suspended back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress.

Eight Civilians Killed in Yemen by Saudi Airstrikes, Saudi-Backed Forces Over 24 Hours: Health Ministry -   Saudi airstrikes and attacks launched by Saudi-backed forces on the ground killed at least eight Yemeni civilians and wounded 19 in three Yemeni provinces over the past 24 hours, according to the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government.The ministry wrote on Telegram that the casualties were recorded in the provinces of Saada, Taiz, and Hajjah, and that women and children were among the casualties.The ministry added that it considered “the Saudi-led coalition’s attacks to be a direct targeting of civilians in their homes and service facilities, a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law which prohibits targeting civilians, and a systematic war crime that necessitates urgent action from the international community to hold those responsible accountable.”Notable incidents over the past day included the bombing of a vehicle repair shop in the Taiz province, an attack that killed at least two people, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency. The Health Ministry said that Saudi-backed forces shelled a gas station in Taiz’s Sabr al-Mawadim District and that one woman was killed by shelling in the Jabal Habash District.  Other attacks included a Saudi airstrike on a drinking water tank in Taiz and a Saudi bombing that damaged a school and a mosque in Taiz’s Maqbanah District, which injured a girl. In Saada, two children were reported wounded by a Saudi airstrike near a school. Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has also been accused of killing civilians, with a rights group that’s critical of Ansar Allah reporting that four civilians were killed over a 48-hour period by Houthi shelling in the city of Taiz. Ansar Allah has had the city encircled for weeks, and civilians are suffering due to shortages caused by the fighting.The Saudi-led coalition was notorious for bombing civilian areas in Yemen during the war from 2015 to 2022, and it has followed a similar pattern since Riyadh reignited the war back in July by bombing the Sanaa International Airport. The US is strongly backing the Saudi air campaign by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes. Since early September, Saudi airstrikes have frequently hit civilian homes and caused devastating casualties. On Saturday, 17 civilians were reported killed by Saudi strikes on homes and housing units for workers at a cement factory.

Saudi-led troops had just gathered when a Houthi missile left dozens dead -For days, drones surveilled a desert base in the far reaches of Yemen where Saudi Arabian officers prepared to train newly enlisted local forces as the fight against the Iran-backed Houthi militia rages. Just as the training got under way Oct. 19, the Houthis hit the base with three ballistic missiles over the span of a few minutes, killing at least 75 people and wounding more than 200 others—including Saudi troops—in the deadliest single attack by the militants in the new war, Saudi and Yemen officials briefed on the incident and witnesses said. The strike on Shabwah was one of a string of recent attacks that show the stiff challenge Saudi Arabia faces in trying to contain an enemy that has demonstrated an ability to gather sensitive intelligence on its movements and respond quickly with precision. On Oct. 15, a Houthi drone and missile attack targeted Al-Maashiq Palace in Aden, the seat of power for Yemen’s internationally recognized government, killing and injuring several people including Saudi officers, whose housing was hit by one of the missiles, some of the Saudi and Yemeni officials briefed on the incident said. On Wednesday, a Houthi missile attack targeted an airport near the eastern port city of Mukalla shortly after Saudi military reinforcements reached a base there, some officials said. “The bigger picture is that the Houthis are systematically targeting military reinforcements and redeployments across Yemen, including newly arriving vehicles, ammunition shipments, troop concentrations and gatherings at recruitment centers,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemen expert who runs the U.S.-based Basha Report risk-advisory company. The government of Saudi Arabia didn’t respond to requests for comment. Saudi Arabia has tried and failed to contain the Houthi threat on its southern border for more than a decade. The kingdom intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 shortly after the Houthis seized the capital, San’a, but struck a ceasefire seven years later after the Houthis hit Saudi cities and energy infrastructure. The kingdom offered financial support to cover government employees’ salaries in San’a during several years of relative quiet, but fighting resumed this summer and quickly escalated. The Houthis seized territory along the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint, threatening Saudi oil exports, and repeatedly struck the international airport in Riyadh, leaving at least 18 dead and choking off flights for weeks. Saudi-backed forces launched a counterattack early this month but have made little decisive progress. The Houthis, meanwhile, are threatening the strategic city of Taiz and repeatedly attacking the seat of government at Aden. Saudi Arabia will need to either recruit more fighters on the ground or send in more of its own forces into Yemen if it wants to mount a major offensive against the Houthis. The militia’s latest attacks show how bloody that fight could get. The Houthis now employ far more sophisticated drones, missiles and intelligence. And they are showing they can launch precise and well-timed strikes inside and outside of Yemen.

Israeli Media: Saudi Arabia Offered Ansar Allah $1 Billion for Yemen Ceasefire - The Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported on Monday that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman’s visit to Tehran was meant to secure a ceasefire with Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, as part of a deal that would involve Riyadh transferring $1 billion to the Yemeni group to fulfill a 2023 roadmap for peace that was never implemented. Under the 2023 deal, the first phase would have involved salary payments to civil workers living in Ansar Allah-controlled Yemen, where most Yemenis live. But US sanctions imposed on Ansar Allah in 2024, specifically the re-designation of the group as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists,” blocked the payments as part of punishment from the Biden administration over Yemeni attacks on Israeli-linked shipping, a response to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.One source speaking to Israel Hayom said Salman brought $1 billion in cash to Iran, but the report didn’t specify whether the money changed hands. A Saudi official didn’t confirm the transfer but said much of the conflict stems from the failure to implement the 2023 agreement.For their part, now that they have significant momentum on the ground, Ansar Allah is demanding an immediate lifting of the Saudi blockade for a ceasefire. Hamid Asim, a member of Sanaa’s negotiating delegation, told The Cradle earlier this month that Ansar Allah wants “an end to the aggression, the lifting of the blockade, payment of compensation, the release of prisoners, and the withdrawal of forces occupying parts of the country.” Asim said the 2023 understanding could form the basis for a settlement, as long as it accounts for the new realities on the ground.Since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport in July, Ansar Allah has pounded Saudi oil sites and airports and has taken a significant amount of territory from Saudi-backed forces, while Saudi Arabia has escalated its bombing campaign in the country with little to show for it besides an increasing number of civilian casualties. The National also reported on the talks in Tehran and cited sources who said that the Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani officials urged Tehran to ask Ansar Allah to halt its attacks on the kingdom. The report said that Iran responded by saying it lacked the leverage over Ansar Allah to compel them to stop the attacks but relayed Ansar Allah’s condition for an end to the Saudi blockade.

Saudi Airstrikes on Yemen Market, Gas Station Kill 14 Civilians: Health Ministry   -- Saudi airstrikes in Yemen’s northern al-Jawf province hit a market and a gas station on Wednesday, killing at least 14 civilians, according to the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government. “We condemn in the strongest terms the crime that targeted civilians in Al-Jawf Governorate, which, according to the initial toll, resulted in the martyrdom of 14 citizens and the injury of 15 others,” the Health Ministry wrote on Telegram. The ministry said the strikes hit the “al-Hazm Central Market during peak shopping hours, several residential homes surrounding the market, and a gas station in the same area.” It stressed that the casualty count was a “preliminary toll,” suggesting that it could rise.The Saudi bombing campaign has had a devastating impact on Yemeni civilians since Riyadh reignited the war back in July by bombing the Sanaa International Airport. Saudi airstrikes escalated in early September when Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, launched a ground offensive against Saudi-backed forces on the ground. According to the Yemen Data Project, Saudi airstrikes killed at least 66 civilians in September, and the civilian casualties appear to have significantly escalated in October. On October 21, the Health Ministry said that since July, Saudi airstrikes and attacks by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have killed 155 civilians. The US has up to 200 military advisors in Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and targeting support for the bombing campaign. The US also resumed refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support the US cut off back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress.

Civilians Reported Killed by Jordanian Airstrikes in Syria - -The Jordanian military on Monday launched airstrikes in southern Syria, a bombing that Amman framed as retaliation for the October 23 attack on St. George’s Orthodox Church in Jordan’s western Karak province, which killed nine Christians who were attending a funeral.  The strikes hit multiple locations in Syria’s Suwayda and Daraa provinces, and according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, at least five civilians were killed, including women and children. Syria’s state-funded Syrian Arab News Agency also reported that five civilians were killed and said a 65-year-old man was among the dead. Jordan said that the strikes were launched in coordination with Damascus, but the Syrian government, led by former al-Qaeda commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, issued a statement denying that it was notified of the attack ahead of time. In its statement on the strikes, the Jordanian military claimed that it targeted “terrorist hideouts” in response to the church shooting. “The operation was conducted in retaliation for the martyrs of last Friday’s Hamoud church attack in Karak. The terrorists behind the Hamoud attack have ties to the targeted terrorist organizations,” the statement said.The Jordanian statement didn’t specify what “terrorist organizations” were targeted, and Jordanian officials said earlier in the day that three suspects were arrested inside Jordan after a shootout with security forces, and that they had no known link to other terrorist cells. Jordanian officials also said that two of the men who were arrested were brothers, and that the other man was their brother-in-law, and they adhered to an “extremist takfiri ideology.”  The attack on the church in Karak rocked Jordan, as the country is known for protecting its Christian minority, which has until now been spared such violence relative to other Christian communities in the region. Following the massacre, Jordan’s King Abdullah vowed that the perpetrators would be punished “with an iron fist.”

Jordan Acknowledges Civilian Casualties in Its Airstrikes in Syria, Claims ISIS Fighters Were Also Killed - - Jordan on Tuesday acknowledged that airstrikes it launched in southern Syria on Monday caused civilian casualties, while also claiming that the attack killed about 20 ISIS fighters. Amman framed the strikes as retaliation for the October 23 attack on St. George’s Orthodox Church in Jordan’s western Karak province, which killed nine Christians who were attending a funeral, though it arrested three suspects in Jordan after a shootout before the airstrikes.Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani said that Amman regretted the civilian casualties in the Syria strikes and was cooperating with Syrian authorities to investigate the strikes. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said on Tuesday that at least seven civilians were confirmed killed by the Jordanian strikes, which hit multiple targets across the Suwayda and Daraa provinces. Among the dead was a family of five, including three children, and an elderly man.The SOHR also said that there were “no confirmed casualties among ISIS, Al-Qaeda or other groups classified as terrorist organizations have been documented in the available toll.”Momani claimed that initial “operational assessments indicate substantial enemy casualties, estimated at over 20 Daesh (ISIS) operatives killed, alongside the destruction of a major weapons depot belonging to the group.” Jordanian officials have described the three suspected church shooters as having a “takfiri extremist ideology” but initially said they had no known links to other terrorist cells.`Jordan, which receives a minimum of $350 million in military aid from the US each year and flies US-made F-16 fighter jets, claimed that the attack was coordinated with Damascus. But the Syrian government, led by former al-Qaeda commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, denied that it received advanced notice.

Israeli Media: IDF Chief Resisted Netanyahu Order for Military Action Related to Iran - - Israeli media reported on Sunday that an “unprecedented confrontation” is unfolding between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, as the army chief is resisting an order to take unspecified military action related to Iran ahead of Tuesday’s Knesset elections.It’s unclear exactly what Netanyahu has ordered, but the report from Israel’s Channel 12 said that the clash between the two is related to the “Iranian issue” and “the concern of Zamir and the military echelon that the political echelon could lead Israel into a scenario of miscalculation facing Iran just before the elections.”According to The Times of Israel, a military source said that it “relates to an action that could lead to a lightning confrontation with Iran, at a sensitive and dramatic moment, creating this [potential] miscalculation.” Other sources said military leaders were concerned about an effort by political leadership “to utilize the Iranian issue for political benefit,” while a political source was quoted as calling the allegations a “lie.”The report came after Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image of an atomic blast in Tel Aviv that included comments made by Yuval Blumberg, an Israeli political commentator, that said Israel is in “real and tangible existential danger” over the alleged threat of Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb. Netanyahu has ramped up his rhetoric about Iran as the election approaches and has gone back to claiming Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb, a claim he’s been making for decades. While both Netanyahu and President Trump frame the conflict with Iran as being about preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current war that Tehran had decided to pursue nuclear weapons, and that was the consensus of the US intelligence agencies. In the post on Sunday that quoted Blumberg, Netanyahu wrote that Israel has “another two years of Trump to finish the work in Iran, and there’s no telling what will come after that—whether it’s Kamala Harris or some other mediocre figure.”Israel’s Channel 12 reported that some US officials were concerned that Iran could take the statement as a threat and that it could lead to an Iranian attack on Israel.

Israeli Quadcopter Drones Set Fire to Gaza Tent Camp, Displacing 800 Palestinians - - Israeli quadcopter drones dropped incendiary bombs on a displacement camp in Gaza City’s eastern Shuja’iyya junction on Sunday night, setting fire to tents and displacing more than 800 Palestinians, local sources have told the Palestinian news agency WAFA. The camp was near the “yellow line,” the dividing line between the IDF-occupied side of Gaza and the rest of the Strip, and Palestinians who lived in the camp said that they frequently faced Israeli fire but had nowhere else to go. The WAFA report said that about 200 families were impacted by the fire.Displaced Palestinians inspect the charred remains of their tents and belongings at a displacement camp near the Shujaiya junction in eastern Gaza City, Gaza Strip, on October 26, 2026 (video via Reuters Connect)  WAFA cited human rights advocates who described the burning of the camp as part of an Israeli policy of “forced displacement and continuous uprooting,” arguing that the incident could amount to a “full-fledged war crime and crime against humanity.”The destruction of the tents came as the Israeli military has been conducting heavy attacks across Gaza, as the IDF appears to be escalating its attacks ahead of Tuesday’s Knesset elections. Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Monday that over the past 24 hours, Israeli forces killed at least eight Palestinians and that another three died of wounds sustained in previous Israeli attacks.Al Jazeera reported that attacks in Gaza on Monday have killed at least five Palestinians, including a seven-year-old girl who was among four people killed by the bombing of a displacement camp in Khan Younis, southern Gaza. Another person was killed by an Israeli strike on Gaza City’s western Remal neighborhood.The Health Ministry said that since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, Israel has killed at least 1,559 Palestinians and wounded 5,608, as the IDF has constantly violated the agreement.

Nearly 50,000 women, girls killed or maimed in Israel's genocidal war on Gaza: Ministry - The Ministry of Women’s Affairs in Gaza says nearly 50,000 Palestinian women and girls have been killed or sustained serious injuries since Israel launched its genocidal war on the besieged territory on October 7, 2023. In a statement issued on Monday to mark Palestinian Women’s National Day, the ministry said the toll includes more than 38,000 women and girls killed and another 11,700 who suffered injuries resulting in permanent disabilities. It noted that the numbers mean approximately one in every 21 women and girls in Gaza has been killed or left permanently disabled amid Israel’s ongoing genocidal war. The ministry reported that more than 277 women and girls lost their lives last year, despite the "ceasefire agreement" that took effect in October 2025. “The Israeli occupation army has issued more than 150 evacuation orders since October 2023, resulting in the displacement of about one million women and girls from their homes,” the ministry added. According to the figures given by the ministry, the number of "widows in the Gaza Strip has reached 64,413, including 28,224 women who were widowed during the genocidal war, while the number of orphaned children has risen to 71, 846.” Citing reports from human rights organizations, the women's affairs ministry stated that 90 Palestinian women were held in Israeli prisons as of early October 2026, including women held under administrative detention. The figures came as four Palestinians, including a 7-year-old girl, were killed and 14 others injured in attacks by the Israeli military and regime-backed forces in the Gaza Strip on Monday. A medical source at Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza said the bodies of two young men and a girl were brought to the hospital following an Israeli airstrike and gunfire in the Bir 19 area, west of Khan Younis. Despite the so-called ceasefire that took effect on October 10, 2025, Israeli forces have continued their daily attacks on the Gaza Strip, killing at least 1,551 Palestinians and injuring 5,573 others since the truce began, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Since October 2023, Israel has killed over 74,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 175,000 others in Gaza, while nearly 90% of the territory's civilian infrastructure has been destroyed.