US oil stores at 43 year low; distillate stores at 23½ year low, 22.3 days worth remain; highest October refinery use since ‘97

largest oil price drop in 7 months; US oil well output at a record high; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the lowest since October 15, 1982; total of all US oil supplies, including commercial, is the lowest since October 7th, 1983; total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products ​a​re at the lowest level since May 9th, 2003; highest US refinery utilization in any October since 1997; most barrels refined for any October week in U.S. history; US  distillates supplies are the lowest since May 2nd 2003​; demand for distillates at a 37 week high, leaving 22.3 days supply of distillate fuel remaining

US oil prices finished lower for the first time in five weeks as the market ignored blazing oil tankers​ in the Strait of Hormuz, falling​ oil & product inventories ​in the US, and other bullish fundamentals and assumed that the midterm election results somehow meant the war in Iran was over and global oil flows would be restored…after rising 0.8% to a six month high of $104.12 a barrel last week after Houthi missiles struck Saudi Arabia's main oil export hub and a couple of their largest refineries, while oil tankers were exploding and catching fire while trying to transverse the Strait of Hormuz, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery fell more than 4% during Asian trading on Monday, as traders reacted to reports of diplomatic talks between Iranian and Qatari officials aimed at ending the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, and was down 6% in early US trading as talks between Iranian negotiators and Qatari mediators sparked hopes for a diplomatic deal to halt the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, and settled $7.66 lower at $96.46 a barrel after Washington and Tehran both signaled they would give diplomacy a chance, wiping out part of the war premium that had lifted prices through October….however, oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday after the United States struck sites on Iran's Qeshm Island, reviving fears of an escalation of the conflict and prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East, but were falling again by early evening in the Middle East after US officials described the attacks as defensive measures aimed at preventing Iran from targeting commercial vessels in the strait, and continued to fall in volatile trading as markets opened in New York as caution over the outcome of the U.S. midterm election offset fresh geopolitical tensions in the Gulf after the U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, and settled 37 cents lower at $96.09 a barrel as the market weighed renewed supply fears after the U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island​ against a statement made by President Donald Trump regarding U.S. military support for Israel…oil prices fell by more than 1% during early trading across Asian markets on Wednesday morning, despite ​a report of a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, as traders awaited the results of the U.S. midterm congressional elections and their potential implications for Middle East peace talks, and were down 2.6% in early US trading as traders weighed the sweeping midterm election wins for Democrats, who could pose wide-ranging challenges to the Trump administration's war against Iran and other energy policies, then tumbled throughout the session to settle $7.97 lower at $88.12 a barrel, as traders bet ‌that the shift in power could hasten the end of the US-Israeli war with Iran…oil prices fell for a fourth straight session on Australian markets on Thursday, as traders bet that Democrats' sweeping midterm victories would increase pressure on President Trump to wind down the U.S. war with Iran, but rebounded in early US trading as energy traders responded to the likelihood ​t​hat oil supplies ​would remain vulnerable​, despite potential changes to the trajectory of the Iran war from this week's U.S. midterm elections, and settled $2.40 higher at $90.52 a barrel as new attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf fed worries about oil supplies, while traders reassessed the outlook for the US-Israeli war with Iran… oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Friday, as concerns that the Iran conflict could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East provided support, and continued to edge higher during the US session, reflecting concerns over possible disruptions to oil shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and settled 31 cents higher at $90.83 a barrel on renewed fears of further US strikes on Iran, after President Trump said he would soon decide ‌whether to pursue a peace agreement or destroy what remains of Iran, but still ended 12.8% lower for the week, the largest ​one week drop in 7 months…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks, on lower production, rising LNG export demand, and slightly cooler forecasts…after falling 5.0% to $2.898 per mmBTU last week on El Nino driven forecasts for a warmer than normal winter, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for December delivery opened 4.9 cents higher on Monday but quickly trended lower as short-term forecasts remained bearish, and settled 4.2 cents lower at $2.856 per mmBTU as renewed hope for talks between the US and Iran caused oil and European gas prices to plunge, while lower flows to LNG export terminals added further downward pressure….natural gas prices opened 4.8 cents higher on Tuesday and rose to $2.922 within minutes of the opening bell, then fell to an intraday low of $2.848 at 9:45 AM, as technical trading bumped up against bearish fundamentals, and settled 3.9 cents higher at $2.895 per mmBTU as choppy production readings and bargain buying countered bearish weather forecasts….December natural gas opened 1.1 cents higher on  Wednesday and rose gradually throughout the morning, as bargain buyers found value in the recently diminished contract, and settled 6.4 cents higher at $2.959 per mmBTU as production estimates held at relatively light levels and LNG demand proved durable, offsetting bearish weather patterns and expectations for a hefty ​addition to storage…natural gas prices opened 1.8 cents lower on Tuesday but stabilized to trade sideways near $2.960 for the subsequent hour, then rose to an intraday high of $2.995 at 11:15 AM, following the report of a smaller than anticipated, though historically bearish injection of gas into storage, before pulling back to close the session 1.2 cents lower at $2.947 per mmBTU, as analysts calculated that Lower 48 supply would prove sufficient to meet winter demand…natural gas futures rebounded to over $3.00 early Friday, supported by cooler weather forecast revisions and signs of tightening supply​, despite an exceptionally mild November outlook, but struggled to hold that level despite resurgent LNG feedgas flows, downwardly trending production and modestly cooler forecast trends, and settled 5.1 cents higher at $2.998 per mmBTU as bears gradually released their grip on fundamentals amid hints of heating demand, lower production, and a modest storage surplus, leaving natural gas prices 3.5% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 30th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet to 3,801 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 109 billion cubic feet, or 2.8% below the 3,910 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 30th of last year, but 54 billion cubic feet, or 1.4% above the five-year average of 3,747 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 30th of October over the most recent five years….the 77 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 82 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, but it was quite a bit more than the 39 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also more than the average 61 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the end of October over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 30th showed that despite a big drop of our oil exports, we again had to pull oil from our stored crude supplies for the twenty-fifth time in twenty-eight weeks, and for the 47th time in seventy-five weeks, largely due to a jump in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for…. Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,000 barrels per day to average 6,374,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 616,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,179,000 barrels per day to average 3,675,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,699,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 30th, an average of 1,178,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 6,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 546,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 11,000 barrels per day higher at a record high of 14,003,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,248,000 barrels per day during the October 30th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,725,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 30th, an average of 199,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average net of 181,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 30th averaged 704,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a rounded [ -704,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....Since 189,000 barrels per day of oil ​supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 893,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and are therefore largely meaningless.….However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 181,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 124,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercial stocks of crude oil, while 57,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the thirty-first Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR in the past 32 weeks, which left the SPR level at 282,184,000 barrels, the lowest since October 15, 1982, which was during its initial fill-up......with both commercial oil and the SPR inventories down this week, that left the Total of all US Oil Supplies at 691,944,000 barrels, down 20.5% from 870,774,000 barrels on April 17th, and the lowest since September 30th, 1983….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Data Overview (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,139,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 9.5% more than the 5,605,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports fell to 4,135,000 barrels per day last week, which was 4.9% less than the 4,349,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 11,000 barrels per day higher at a record 14,003,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 6,000 barrels per day higher at 13,516,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 487,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 6.9% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 44.4% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 94.5% of their capacity while processing those 16.725,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 30th, up from 92.8% the prior week, and the highest October US refinery utilization rate since 1997, when the Asian financial crisis led to low oil prices and record profits for US refineries….hence the 16,725,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were the most barrels ever refined for any week in the month of October in U.S. history, 9.6% more than the 15,256,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending October 31st of 2025, and 6.1% more than the 15,761,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending November 1st, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.0%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year, possibly due to delayed refinery maintenance following the historic flooding across southeast Texas in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda of that year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries also higher, increasing by 463,000 barrels per day to 9,704,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 30th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 509,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was still 1.3% less than the 9,831,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending October 31st of last year, and 3.3% less than the gasoline production of 10,036,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending November 1st, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 5,154,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 71,000 barrels per day during the prior week.  But even after those production decreases, our distillates output was 9.4% more than the 4,709,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 31st of 2025, and 5.7% more than the 4,875,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 1st, 2019....

Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the twenty-eighth time in thirty-eight weeks, decreasing by 222,000 barrels to 208,958,000 barrels during the week ending October 30th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 3,870,000 barrels during the prior week.  Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose  by 450,000 barrels per day to 8,808,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 172,000 barrels per day to 1,017,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 48,000 barrels per day to 351,000 barrels per day… After fifty-eight gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-nine weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.4% higer than last October 31st’s gasoline inventories of 206,009,000 barrels, but were about 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the nineteenth time in thirty-eight weeks, decreasing by 1,462,000 barrels to 99,259,000 barrels during the week ending October 30th, the lowest since May 2nd 2003, coming after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,462,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 232,000 barrels per day to a thirty-seven week high of 4,449,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 21,000 barrels per day to 1,341,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 117,000 barrels per day... After 35 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 68 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 8.3% below the 112,189,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 31st of 2025, and were about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…furthermore, the increase in domestic demand, combined with the falling inventories, means that the US only ​has 22.3 days supply of distillate fuel oils remaining heading into winter, when heat oil demand competes with transportation demand for those supplies…​(​NB: the EIA, calculating days of supply with a four week average for demand, indicates 23.8 days of supply, the lowest since March 2003, coming after Hugo Chavez halted tanker exports from Venezuela earlier that year....)

Finally, even with record production from US wells and a big drop in our oil exports, the increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for meant our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, for the 29th time over the past year, decreasing by 865,000 barrels over the week, from 410,625,000 barrels on October 23rd to 409,760,000 barrels on October 30th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 1,892,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 4% below recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 20% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s commercial oil supply decrease was preceded by four larger draws, so as of October 30th our commercial crude inventories were 2.7% below the 421,168,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on October 31st of 2025, and 4.2% less than the 427,658,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 1st of 2024, and 6.0% less than the 435,762,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 3rd of 2023…

With this week’s drop in commercial crude and SPR oil inventories, and distillates supplies, that also meant that the week ended with the total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products down by 8,581,000 barrels to 1,486,558,000 barrels, the lowest for that total petroleum liquids supply figure since May 9th, 2003…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by one over the week ending November 6th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by one and the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by one, while miscellaneous rigs were down by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 30th) and this week’s (November 6th) count, the third column shows last week’s October 30th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 7tht of November, 2025…

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Tell the Ohio EPA: No air permit for a huge gas plant next to Buckeye Lake – by Cathy Cowan Becker,  Save Ohio Parks - You might remember a couple of months ago when we asked you to file a public comment on a 1350 MW gas plant planned to go next to Buckeye Lake. Now the developers of that gas plant are applying for an air pollution permit from the Ohio EPA, and we have 10 days to tell them no. Please use our sample text below to file a comment telling the Ohio EPA not to issue an air permit to the Fairfield Energy Center. Just copy and paste this link into your browser to file a comment: https://ohioepa.commentinput.com/index.cfm?id=RJAbKYcFh  At 1350 MW, the Fairfield Energy Center would be one of the largest gas combustion plants in Ohio – all to power a Vantage data center. It would go just one mile from the village of Millersport on Buckeye Lake. Immediately next door is Buckeye Lake State Park, Ohio’s first state park, and Cranberry Bog Nature Preserve, the only known floating island of sphagnum moss in the world.The Fairfield Energy Center would generate power by burning gas in 40 simple cycle turbines. This would emit a long list of pollutants each year, including up to:

• 6,629,795 tons of greenhouse gas (CO2e) - as much as the city of Pittsburgh!
• 284 tons of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
• 436 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
• 656 tons of carbon monoxide (CO)
• 71 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2)
• 202 tons of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs)

Simple cycle turbines are not the Best Available Technology for gas plants -- but Ohio regulations say gas plants don’t need Best Available Technology if they emit less than 10 tons per year of certain pollutants. As you can see, Fairfield Energy Center would emit many times more of each pollutant than 10 tons per year. Yet the Ohio EPA is proposing to issue an air permit anyway, on the grounds that each individual gas turbine emits less than 10 tons per year of each pollutant – even though the permit is for a total of 40 turbines! The Ohio EPA will hold a public hearing on the air permit where you can testify in opposition. Here is the date and location:

Tuesday, November 10, 2026  6 p.m.
Millersport Elementary Auditorium
11850 Lancaster St.
Millersport, OH 43046

You can read your written comment, or say something different. The key is to let the Ohio EPA know you want clean air and oppose this polluting gas plant. The deadline to file your written comment is Thursday, November 12, at 11:59 p.m. Please file a public comment asking the Ohio EPA to deny the air permit for the Fairfield Energy Center. Thanks so much for your advocacy on behalf of Ohioans and our natural world. You can use the information above to write your comment, or find a sample comment below.Sample Comment Please edit this text to explain why this issue matters to you. Then submit your comment at https://ohioepa.commentinput.com/index.cfm?id=RJAbKYcFh

Dear Andrea Moore:

I am writing to ask you to deny Draft Air Permit P0140492 for the 1350 MW Fairfield Energy Center, proposed to power a Vantage data center just one mile from Buckeye Lake.If approved, the Fairfield Energy Center will include 40 simple cycle turbines. This equipment is not the Best Available Technology. Simple cycle turbines are less efficient and more polluting than combined cycle turbines typically used in a major gas plant.According to its air permit application, the Fairfield Energy Center would emit a long list of pollutants annually, including up to:

– 6,629,795 tons of greenhouse gas (CO2e)
– 284 tons of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
– 436 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
– 656 tons of carbon monoxide (CO)
– 71 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2)
– 202 tons of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs)

Yet your draft permit excuses the Fairfield Energy Center from the requirement to use Best Available Technology on the grounds that each individual gas turbine will emit less than 10 tons per year of each of these pollutants.That is a misreading of OAC Rule 3745-31-05, which is about a permit-to-install for the entire facility, not each individual piece of equipment.It is critical that we get this right. Almost 14,000 people live within five miles of this gas plant, including almost 2500 children and 2800 senior citizens. They deserve to breathe clean air.Finally, draft air permit P0140492 does not consider the most prevalent pollutant from the Fairfield Energy Center: over 6.6 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution – as much as the entire city of Pittsburgh.Because regulators have ignored greenhouse gas emissions for decades, the world is now at the tipping point of a runaway climate crisis. If we continue to ignore climate-warming greenhouse gas pollution, extreme weather disasters will only get worse.Please deny the air permit application for the Fairfield Energy Center until the developer can use the actual Best Available Technology, meaning combined cycle turbines, or better yet, renewable energy that does not damage human health or drive the climate crisis.Thank you for considering my comment.

New report reveals cause of massive Twinsburg Township gas explosion - An inaccurate marking for an underground gas line led to the massive gas explosion in Twinsburg Township in June, according to a report recently released by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Two people were injured and numerous homes were damaged by the explosion, which happened June 25 after fiber optic line installers struck a gas line. The PUCO report stated that there was an estimated $5 million in damage done by the blast.  According to the PUCO report, Future Communications, a third-party contractor, had been installing the lines and attempted to bore in conduit along Hiram Lane. The company had a valid utility location request ticket for the excavation. However, the markings for the gas pipeline made by Enbridge Gas Ohio were about 28 inches north of the actual pipeline, the report concluded. The bore head from the drill rig struck a gas line in front of 2122 Hiram Lane, creating a 4-inch diameter gouge on the north side of the pipeline. Gas escaping from the main entered the home, resulting in an explosion. The home was unoccupied at the time of the explosion, but two individuals at neighboring homes on Hiram Lane sustained injuries that did not require overnight hospitalization. During the on-scene investigation after the explosion, Enbridge personnel found the damaged gas main around 28 inches away from where the locator had marked the gas main under the sidewalk. The explosion in the township and other areas prompted several communities such as Streetsboro, Hudson, the city of Twinsburg and Stow to put a pause on directional drilling operations so officials could look into extra safeguards to prevent future incidents. Twinsburg, Streetsboro and Hudson have since returned to allowing directional drilling, with stricter guidelines. The moratorium in Stow is still in place, according to Stow Council President Kyle Herman.

PUCO finds mislabeled gas line cause of Twinsburg Township house explosion - An explosion that rocked a Twinsburg Township neighborhood in June now has an official cause, according to a report released by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The PUCO's report found that a gas line that was struck by a contractor was mistakenly marked to be just over two feet from where it actually was. According to the report, Future Communications made a request to OHIO 811 on June 16 for the lines to be marked prior to laying fiber optic cables. An employee of Benchmark, a utility locating service that works with OHIO 811, came out between June 16 and June 18 and marked the gas lines by hooking onto a tracer wire to locate the main lines in front of the homes in the neighborhood. In the report, PUCO also says its staff noted at the incident scene in June that marks were not made according to the Universal Marking Standards, which includes a uniform color code. "The locate markings for the Enbridge pipelines at and around the incident location were not properly marked for the owner of the pipeline, size of the pipeline, or material type of the pipeline," the report reads. The report also notes that while Enbridge staff did complete a required drug test on the locator from Benchmark following the incident, they did not conduct an alcohol screening. The report concludes that the primary contributing factor to the damage was the inaccurately marked gas line and that Enbridge did not provide detailed instructions on locating underground utilities that would apply to all requests. On June 25, Future Communications damaged a 2-inch gas distribution line in the front yard of 2122 Hiram Ln. The contractor notified the Twinsburg Fire Department and Enbridge Gas Ohio. The explosion occurred just under an hour after crews notified emergency services. Three houses were destroyed and at least three dozen others in the neighborhood were damaged. There were two reported injuries which required hospital visits, but there were no fatalities.

Rolling Stone Drops Ohio Brine Hit Piece 4 Days Before Election - Marcellus Drilling News -  Four days before Ohioans pick their next governor, Rolling Stone and the climate activist website DeSmog published a story by anti-fossil writer Justin Nobel under the headline “Ohio Denies Evidence of Fracking Waste in Drinking Water. Its Own Records Show Otherwise.” We read every word. The state’s records show no such thing. What they show is one salty water well in Coshocton County that the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) investigated in 2021 and traced to a naturally salty layer of rock. Much of the rest is opinion from activists and a water well driller, plus a candidate’s campaign promise. Here’s what the story gets wrong, and what it leaves out.

Data Center Bans Sweep Ohio Ballots; 800 MW Gas Plant Derailed - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, Ohio voters had their first big chance to vote directly on data centers, and the data centers got clobbered. There were 21 data center ballot measures in 18 Ohio towns, villages, and townships (more than half of the 41 on ballots across the country). Voters in at least 14 of those places passed bans or new restrictions, most of them by margins of roughly 3-to-1 or 4-to-1. For MDN readers, the biggest single loss came in tiny Ashville (Pickaway County, just south of Columbus). There, about 82% of voters struck down the village’s deal with EdgeConneX for two data centers and an on-site gas-fired power plant of up to 800 megawatts (MW). Below are the scorecard, the gas angle, who’s behind the bans, and what comes next.

Ascent Swings to $23M Loss on Pipeline Exit, Slows Utica Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News --Ascent Resources, the largest natural gas producer in Ohio's Utica Shale and one of the largest privately held drillers in the U.S., issued its third-quarter 2026 update yesterday. For the first time since early 2025, Ascent posted a loss: $22.8 million. Don't panic. The red ink comes from one item: a $185.2 million charge to exit pipeline space it didn't need. Under the hood, production held steady at 2,190 MMcfe/d (2.19 Bcfe/d), free cash flow more than doubled from 2Q, and Ascent raised its production guidance. The bigger stories for MDN readers: Ascent cut its rig count in half, slowed down its leasing, and its accountants dropped the odds of an IPO or sale to just 15%.

Dell’Osso’s Gulfport Pivots to Ohio: 2 Rigs, E-Frac, Less Oklahoma -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Gulfport Energy, one of the largest drillers in the Ohio Utica, issued its third-quarter 2026 update this week, and it was a solid one. Total production averaged 1,057.2 MMcfe/d (million cubic feet equivalent per day), up about 10% from the second quarter, while liquids production (oil, condensate and NGLs) jumped 67% to 23.5 Mbbl/d (thousand barrels per day). But the bigger news is where CEO Nick Dell’Osso, now five months into the job after being shown the door at Expand Energy, is steering the company: a continuous two-rig drilling program in Ohio starting in 2027, an electric frac fleet, less spending in Oklahoma, another premium-priced gas sales deal into the Midwest, and a fatter $2.0 billion stock buyback authorization.

Will Ohio’s New Governor Harm the Utica Shale Industry?  - Marcellus Drilling News - On Tuesday, Ohio voters elected Democrat Dr. Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, as their next governor. She takes office Jan. 11. Acton campaigned on ending fracking under state parks and wildlife areas and on a three-year freeze on fracking wastewater injection in Washington County. So, what can she actually do to the Utica industry once she’s in charge? A new Cleveland Plain Dealer story looks at the state-lands piece of that question (short answer: not as much as she promised). We dug into the rest. Bottom line: she can’t ban fracking. But a governor has a lot of ways to make life slow, expensive, and miserable for drillers if she wants to.

Shale Permits Fall to 4 Last Week; Ohio Posts a Big Fat Zero - Marcellus Drilling News  - The Marcellus/Utica region received a paltry 4 new shale well permits last week, Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, down 5 from the anemic 9 the week before. Pennsylvania issued 2 new permits, Ohio issued none, and West Virginia issued 2. The drillers who received new-well permits last week were: CNX, EQT, and PennEnergy Resources. It was a sleepy week. Ohio didn't issue a single horizontal shale permit of any kind: no new wells, no deepens, no location changes. Maybe somebody went on vacation at ODNR? The busier paperwork was on older permits: 11 modifications across PA and WV, eight of them for one EQT pad in Wetzel County. Armstrong County | Beaver County | CNX Resources | EQT Corp | Marion County | PennEnergy Resources

Too Much Gas, Too Little Cold: Northeast Spot Prices Stuck Near $1 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Time for another check of what our Marcellus/Utica (M-U) molecules are selling for, and the news is about what you'd expect after weeks of mild fall weather: not much. On Wednesday, the Henry Hub spot price (the national benchmark in Louisiana) averaged $2.610 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas). Here in the Northeast, gas for Thursday delivery sold for about a dollar. Mid-Atlantic gas (Texas Eastern M-3) went for $1.06, New York City (Transco Zone 6 NY) for $1.03, and New England (Algonquin Citygate) for $1.31. On Thursday, Texas Eastern M-2, the main pricing point for gas produced in southwestern PA, West Virginia, and Ohio, ticked up 5 cents to $1.100. That's still less than half the Henry Hub price. A new NGI analysis explains why: heating demand in the East is running way behind last year, so the region has more gas than it needs. Even Canada has quit sending us much gas.

Williams 3Q: NESE in Limbo, SESE II Added, Ohio Power Projects Hum --  Marcellus Drilling News - Williams, the Tulsa company that owns the Transco pipeline (the biggest artery carrying Marcellus/Utica gas to the East Coast), turned in a record third quarter on Monday. But the most important thing for MDN readers came on Tuesday's earnings call: management admitted that the Third Circuit's decision to toss New Jersey's water permit for the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project "could put at risk our ability to get it online in time for next winter". Meanwhile, the Southeast side of Transco keeps growing, a new Leidy Line expansion is at FERC, four Williams gas-fired power plants for data centers are rising in Ohio, and Constitution Pipeline? Not one word.

DEP: Routine Inspections Find 6 More Anderson Energy SVC LLC Conventional Oil & Gas Wells Abandoned, Not Plugged In Venango County - On October 19 & 28, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection conducted routine inspections of 6 more Anderson Energy SVC LLC conventional wells in Allegheny Township, Venango County and found them all abandoned and not plugged.The wells include: LK Fulton 1714 2, LK Fulton 1714 3, LK Fulton 1714 6, LK Fulton 1714 9, LK Fulton 1714 10 and LK Fulton 1714 13.  Multiple violations issued.  A response was requested by November 17.   Click Here for a DEP inspection report example + photos. On October 13 & 14, 2026, DEP issued Anderson Energy SVC LLC violations for abandoning and not plugging 16 conventional oil and gas wells in Harmony Township, Forest County.  Read more here. The total abandoned well violations for this one company is now 22. DEP has issued a total of 415 violations to conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells so far in 2026. To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

DEP - Day 135: Contaminated Water Discharges Continue, Still Fails To Comply With Cleanup Order At Equitrans Water SVC [EQT] Richter Shale Gas Water Impoundment In Greene County - (Photos: Contaminated water flows down access road; Contaminated water at pond outlet.) On October 30, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection conducted a compliance evaluation of cleanup and control of contaminated water from a June 17, 2026 release at the Equitrans Water SVC (PA) LLC Richter Shale Gas Water Impoundment Reclamation in Aleppo Township, Greene County. DEP found multiple areas where seeps of contaminated water are not being collected impacting the access road, a pond on the site, from springs and in streams. EQT is not conducting remediation efforts in these areas. DEP did note contaminated water within the limits of the impoundment permit area is being collected and in some areas off site. DEP continues to find EQT is failing to comply with a June 30th order to contain the spill, prevent migration of pollution offsite and remediate impacted areas. Multiple violations continued.  No written response requested. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 740: Seneca Resources Continues Shale Gas Well Development At Taft Pad While Problems With Contaminated Water Persist At The Tioga County Site.. - On November 2, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection of the Seneca Resources Co., LLC Taft 851 shale gas well pad in Middlebury Township, Tioga County and found problems with contaminated water persist at the pad which date back to October 2024. DEP noted well fracking and recovery activities were continuing on eight shale gas wells at the pad. Specifically, DEP said well servicing equipment was at well 74HU which “took a hit during stimulation operations being conducted on the nearby Chappell well pad.” DEP is investigating a well “communication” [interference] incident involving Seneca’s Chappell, Bauer 849 and Taft shale gas well pads. Read more here. DEP said work needs to be done on erosion and sediment control measures to convert the to post construction stormwater structures. Field testing of fluids at the stormwater sump collecting water from the pad and sediment basin-- which still contained standing water-- found levels that warranted continuing the violations issued in 2024. "The DEP recommends that Seneca continues to monitor the conditions on the pad surface and the sediment basin and remove elevated conductance fluids and soils as discovered. Prevent elevated conductance fluids from leaving the facility and causing pollution to the waters of the Commonwealth." Violations at the well pad were continued now for 740 days. DEP did not request a write follow-up from Seneca. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos. Violations for the wastewater releases at the Taft site were originally issued on October 23, 2024. DEP found contaminated water on the pad outside containment that was running down a 40 foot channel at the pad outfall and then draining into a sediment basin, running over a sediment filter sock and leaving the site. DEP found similar conditions-- spills, crews trying to clean up the pad while drilling and fracking new shale gas wells continues-- starting October 23, 2024, then on  July 11, 2025,  August 21, 2025, October 2, 2025, October 31, 2025, December 23, 2025, January 21, 2026, April 21, 2026, June 23, 2026, July 17, 2026, September 23, 2026 and November 2, 2026. A July 27, 2026 inspection of the 75HU Utica shale gas well at this same Taft shale gas well pad found evidence of continuing casing/cementing failure originally discovered on Nov. 13, 2024. The violation was continued and so will the monitoring. DEP inspection report. October DEP inspections of three Seneca Resource Co LL shale gas well pads in Middlebury Township, Tioga County found the close proximity of horizontal shale gas well drilling and fracking have apparently caused well “communication” (interference) issues. On October 6, 2026, DEP inspected the Seneca Resources Co LLC Bauer 849 shale gas well pad in response to a notification of three contaminated water spills. DEP found a fiber optic cable got stuck down a Bauer gas well during an investigation of a “frac hit" from a well originating at the nearby Taft shale gas well pad in the same township. Click Here to read more. On October 31, 2025, Attorney General Dave Sunday announced criminal charges against Seneca Resources, LLC, following multiple violations of Pennsylvania’s environmental protection laws in several counties, as recommended by the 48th and 51st Statewide Investigating Grand Juries. Three separate criminal complaints were filed regarding the natural gas company’s violations related to improper waste management practices and policies. Prominent in the Attorney General’s announcement of the charges was the fact that DEP repeatedly warned Seneca that their practices were not in line with Pennsylvania law, but those warnings were ignored or disputed. Read more here.In all, Seneca is charged with 64 counts of violations of the Solid Waste Management Act and 36 counts of violations of the Clean Streams Law in Cameron, Clearfield, Elk, Jefferson, Lycoming, McKean, Potter, Tioga Counties. Read more here.

Susquehanna River Basin Commission Reports Low-Flow Stream Conditions Trigger Stop To 51 Shale Gas Water Withdrawals, 13 More Put On Watch Status - On November 3, 2026, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission Hydrologic Conditions Monitor Dashboard shows low-flow stream conditions have triggered a stop to 53 shale gas water withdrawals and put 13 more on Watch status approaching operating restrictions.The withdrawals are in Bradford, Lycoming, Potter, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Wyoming counties.These numbers were up significantly from October 31 when 11 shale gas withdrawals were stopped and 7 were put on Watch statusShale gas water withdrawal points are among the first to be restricted by low flow and ice conditions because many of the withdrawals are on smaller streams.  Similar information is not available for the Northwest and Southwest areas of the state in the Ohio River Watershed where there is shale gas drilling because there is no agency like SRBC to regulate water withdrawals. DEP does require shale gas drillers to have water management plans that include low-flow restrictions, but that’s just one more thing DEP has to enforce. Contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to report suspected violations of these requirements.Visit SRBC’s Hydrologic Conditions Monitor webpage to learn more.

Crews working to clean up Allegheny River oil spill in Warren – Crews from around Warren County are working to clean up the Allegheny River after one city official said a truck spilled oil into a basin Thursday morning. According to the City of Warren Manager Michael Holtz, a truck was picking up oil from the city’s Department of Public Works garage around 6 am Thursday and a valve was left open, spilling the material into a nearby catch basin. Holtz said approximately “a couple barrels of oil” leaked into that catch basin, which feeds into the Allegheny River in front of Paws Along the River Humane Society. Crews from the Warren County Emergency Management Team, PA DEP, PA Fish and Boat Commission and Warren Fire Department have been working since Thursday morning, with United Refinery also providing help and other resources. As of 3:30 pm, Holtz said cleanup efforts are still underway to keep environmental impacts to a minimum and protect the waterway. Paws Along the River also posted on their social media that the spill caused them to close to the public early Thursday and will reopen at 12:30.

DEP: Spill Of Just 1 Barrel Of Conventional Crude Oil From Storage Tanks In The City Of Warren Impacts 7 Miles Of Allegheny River -On November 5, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection was notified of a crude oil spill at the Curtis & Son Oil, Inc. storage tank facility in the City of Warren, Warren County serving conventional oil wells in the area. DEP arrived onsite about 9:00 a.m. and found crude oil was released from a AR Trucking tank truck loading oil after the operator “errantly opened’ a value on the trucks resulting in the release of crude oil to a paved parking area. DEP said the owner estimated approximately one barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil was released before the valve was closed. The crude oil flowed into a nearby storm drain and discharged into the Allegheny River approximately 400 feet southwest of the tank facility. DEP said absorbent booms were placed just below the storm sewer outfall and another series approximately 900 feet downstream. An oil sheen was observed by DEP migrating beyond the booms and pockets of crude oil were observed along the northern bank of the river. DEP observed an oil sheen of “varying intensities” in the Allegheny River for approximately seven miles downriver from the point the crude oil entered the river. “Curtis & Son employees along with other local oil and gas producers were collecting free oil near the storm sewer outfall.” “Representatives of Warren County EMA, Warren City Fire Department, Warren DPW and United Refining assumed command of the cleanup until AR Trucking could mobilize a qualified cleanup contractor onsite.” “Boats were used by the aforementioned agencies during the late morning and early afternoon to deploy additional absorbent booms and a containment boom between Point Park and the storm sewer outfall.” “Free crude was collected from the water by boat along the northern bank of the river within this same area.” Cleanup crews were onsite working until dark. Multiple violations were issued to Curtis & Son Oil, Inc. and a written response requested by November 24. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. Curtis & Son Oil, Inc. holds 323 conventional oil and gas well permits. To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

Pennsylvania Opens a New Loophole for Oil and Gas Wastewater Disposal -  --If you’re an ordinary resident of Pennsylvania and you want to dispose of potentially toxic waste, the Department of Environmental Protection will direct you to specialized dropoff locations: recycling programs or local events where officials collect things like propane tanks and pharmaceuticals.  If you’re in the oil and gas business, your options may become much more expansive this year. The DEP quietly issued a new permit in May that experts warn will make it easier for the industry to dump toxic, radioactive waste directly onto roadways. “It’s ridiculous on its face, in my view,” said David Hess, a former DEP secretary who maintains the PA Environment Digest blog, tracking environmental actions across the state. The new permit means companies could reclassify conventional, or non-fracked, oil and gas wells as “mineral brine” wells, which would allow them to sell radioactive wastewater as a product. It can then be spread across roads to control dust and eliminate ice in the winter. Any oil or gas produced from those wells could also be sold as waste. Pennsylvania produces more gas than any other state in the nation besides Texas, and alongside that gas comes millions of gallons of toxic wastewater. This waste, also known as brine because of its high salt content, contains heavy metals and radioactive elements such as radium. For decades, “roadspreading,” slathering oil and gas wastewater across roads to de-ice them and reduce dust, spread pollutants throughout the state.Even setting aside environmental and health concerns and the bizarre regulatory framework that undergirds this dumping, when it comes to reducing dust, the brine “doesn’t do what it purports to do,” said Charlie Palladino, a policy advocate at the environmental nonprofit Earthworks. Siri Lawson, a resident of Farmington Township in Warren County who blames exposure to oil and gas waste for her ongoing respiratory problems, was more direct: “It seemed to make the dust worse,” she said. Academic research backs this up, suggesting that the wastewater controls dust no better than rainwater. It can also inadvertently damage paved roads, “turning them into something that looks like Swiss cheese,” said Hess. A study from Penn State found that roadspreading releases roughly four times more radium into the surrounding environment than wastewater facilities and 200 times more than isolated spills. The practice was common until 2018, when Lawson filed an appeal with the state’s Environmental Hearing Board.  DEP officials came to the conclusion that they should use a stricter permitting system, suspending approvals for roadspreading statewide. That didn’t stop the practice entirely, though. Although the agency banned roadspreading wastewater from fracked wells, its efforts to place similar restrictions on conventional operators failed—in large part because of the political power these companies hold in Northwestern Pennsylvania.  Conventional well owners could take advantage of a loophole: Waste could be designated a “coproduct,” comparable to commercial dust-suppression products, and sold. Lawson has continued to document trucks dumping waste, describing the oily residue the water leaves behind, which sometimes tints the roads an eerie blue. At a 2024 state Senate hearing, Karen Feridun, co-founder of the environmental advocacy organization Better Path Coalition, testified that DEP records show over 3.5 million gallons of wastewater had been dumped on Pennsylvania roads between 2018 and 2024. The DEP submitted testimony that staff had reached out to all operators who listed roadspreading as an end use for their wastewater in 2022 and 2023. As of 2023, only two operators still actively listed roadspreading as an end use, and neither responded to the DEP’s calls to halt operations. This is likely an undercount, said Hess, “because the [conventional well] industry just does not comply with anything. I mean, DEP itself issued a report in December 2022 that said this industry has a history of non-compliance.” An August report from FracTracker Alliance found that roughly 70 percent of Pennsylvania’s conventional oil and gas wells reported oil and gas waste production but no waste—a massive gap in regulatory oversight, said Hess. When the DEP told a company called BCD Properties that its oil and gas wastewater was invalid as a coproduct, the company filed an appeal. The case was ultimately settled privately, but two weeks before the settlement, DEP issued the new permit that opened up another loophole. BCD Properties was initially trying to sell wastewater from its Danylko 4 well in McKean County. The new permit issued for the Danylko 6 well is roughly 500 feet away—it draws from the same geologic formation and will still bring up oil and gas—but it’s been established as a “mineral brine” well. What this means is that the company will be able to sell brine as its primary product, then sell whatever oil and gas is extracted as “waste.” The result is “extremely concerning,” said Palladino. In order to sell their brine, operators are expected to test it and decide on their own whether it’s comparable to commercial products and meets health and human safety standards—this is called a “coproduct designation.” When DEP began looking more closely at oil and gas companies’ coproduct designations, they found that none of the waste met basic safety thresholds. . “So now this [permit] comes along, and it creates this artificial distinction between a waste brine … [and] this new category called mineral brine, when it’s the same stuff, coming from the same formation,” said Palladino.

DEP Issues Air Quality Permit To Amazon Data Services For Installation Of 76 Diesel-Fired Backup Generators At New Data Center Project In Falls Twp., Bucks County - The Department of Environmental Protection published notice in the November 7 PA Bulletin announcing it has issued an Air Quality Plan Approval [09-0261] for the installation of 76 diesel-fired backup generators to Amazon Data Services, Inc. for a new A.I. data center PNE 100 project in Falls Twp., Bucks County. (PA Bulletin, page 7401)The generators include-- 72-- 2.75 MW diesel generators, two 1,000 kW diesel generators and two 750 kW diesel generators.Requests to review the permit and other questions should be directed to James Beach, New Source Review Chief, DEP Southeast Regional Office Air Quality Program by calling 484-250-5920 or by email to: jamesbeach@pa.gov.  Anyone aggrieved by this decision has 30 days from this notice to file an appeal with the Environmental Hearing Board.  Read the entire PA Bulletin notice for more information. (PA Bulletin, page 7401) [Note: This permit just covers some of the backup generators proposed for this data center site or changes have been made to the plan for generators.  [In July, DEP invited comments on an Air Quality Permit for 282 natural gas-fired generators under a similar permit number: 09-0261A..  Read more here.] Visit DEP’s Data Center Permit Tracker webpage for information on pending permits for A.I. data center projects established by Gov. Shapiro’s Data Center Executive Order. The Governor’s executive order requires data center developers to obtain all permits and local approvals before DEP can review any permits for the facility.To provide information to the state on new data center proposals and whether they meet the requirements in Gov. Shapiro’s Data Center Executive Order, visit the Data Center Feedback webpage.

Nonprofits, Beware: Marcellus Royalties Sink Club’s Tax Exemption - Marcellus Drilling News - A Lycoming County sportsmen’s club that has been around since 1936 just lost its federal tax-exempt status, and the reason is its Marcellus royalty checks. On Oct. 29, the U.S. Tax Court sided with the IRS, ruling that gas royalties made up so much of the club’s income that it no longer qualified as a tax-exempt “social club.” A lot of MDN readers run, or sit on the boards of, nonprofits that collect signing bonuses and royalty checks: churches, fire companies, land trusts, granges, hunting camps. So we read the full 20-page decision and looked into how the rules work for other types of nonprofits. Our conclusion: hunting and social clubs are most at risk, but every nonprofit with a lease should sit down with its tax attorney soon.

Democrats Flip PA Senate – Storm Clouds Gather Over the Marcellus - Marcellus Drilling News - It happened, or very nearly so. For the first time in more than three decades, Democrats have claimed control of the Pennsylvania state Senate, with one race left for the Associated Press to make it official. Add a bigger Democratic majority in the state House, and Gov. Josh Shapiro's landslide reelection, and Democrats now hold a "trifecta" in Harrisburg: all three levers of state government. Since Democrats took the House in 2022, the GOP-controlled Senate has been the Marcellus industry's firewall against bad energy policy. On Jan. 5, 2027, that firewall goes away. Here's what we know so far, and what we think it means for drillers, landowners, pipeliners, and everyone else who profits from PA shale.

Data Center Backlash Goes National; What It Means for M-U Gas - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday we told you how small-town Ohio voters clobbered data centers at the ballot box (see Data Center Bans Sweep Ohio Ballots; 800 MW Gas Plant Derailed). It turns out Ohio was just one front in a nationwide revolt. The Wall Street Journal reports that voters from Ohio and Michigan to Texas and Georgia backed candidates and ballot measures to ban or slow data center construction. Three of those states (Texas, Georgia, and Ohio) account for more than 40% of all planned U.S. data center capacity, according to investment bank Evercore ISI. All three just elected Democrat governors who campaigned on slowing or pausing the build-out. Silicon Valley is rattled. Since data centers are the biggest new source of demand for Marcellus/Utica gas, we should pay close attention too. Below are the new governors, Wall Street’s reaction, the federal angle, and what it all means for our region.

EQT Gets DEP OK for 4.6-Mile Marcellus Gas Line in Lycoming County -- Marcellus Drilling News - More Marcellus wells are on the way in Pine Creek country. On October 20, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) issued EQT ARO LLC a permit to build about 4.6 miles of 10-inch gas line through Cummings and Watson townships in western Lycoming County, starting at a well pad on a state forest tract. DEP’s notice in last Saturday’s Pennsylvania Bulletin says the line is “for the purpose of Marcellus Shale well development.” The same issue shows Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) picking up a new earthmoving permit one township over. Pine Creek is open for business.

DT Midstream 3Q: M-U Curtailments Now, More Pipeline Growth Later - Marcellus Drilling News - - DT Midstream (DTM), the Detroit-based midstream company that gathers Marcellus/Utica gas in northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, released its third-quarter 2026 update on Thursday. The headline for our neck of the woods: Northeast gathering volumes slipped about 9% from the second quarter, to 1.25 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day), and DTM says they’ll drop again in the fourth quarter because drillers are curtailing (holding back) production while prices are weak. The longer-term picture is much brighter. DTM is taking bids on another expansion of Millennium Pipeline into the New York market, signing 20-year deals to move Appalachian gas to Indiana power plants, and talking about a bigger NEXUS Pipeline down the road.

Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Antero Midstream’s Next Wave of Pipeline Growth | RBN Energy - Antero Midstream is looking beyond gathering lines to capture a larger share of the infrastructure connecting Appalachian gas supply with downstream demand. During its Q3 2026 earnings call, the company outlined several billion dollars of potential projects spanning regional pipelines, laterals to demand centers and integrated power opportunities. The strategic shift reflects management’s view that the next wave of Appalachian infrastructure will increasingly be driven by buyers seeking reliable gas supply including LNG facilities, utilities and power generators. For Antero Midstream, the opportunity is to earn more revenue along the route from the wellhead to those customers while improving market access for Antero Resources.East Side Express is the most advanced piece of that strategy. The pipeline remains under construction, with seven downstream pipeline interconnections planned and completion targeted for late 2028–2029. Management reported interest from multiple downstream counterparties, suggesting the project could provide flexibility to serve several markets. A proposed north–south pipeline would extend that reach toward Clarington, where customer interest is prompting initial development work ahead of a potential final investment decision in 2027. As existing third-party transportation agreements expire, Antero Midstream sees an opening to replace purchased services with its own infrastructure, potentially capturing additional margins across the integrated system. However, the broader multibillion-dollar opportunity set consists of potential developments rather than committed investments.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: CNX Plans Shift in Appalachian Gas Producing Areas | RBN Energy - CNX Resources has mentioned in the past few earnings calls that it sees great potential in the Deep Utica, expecting its production there to increase greatly in the coming years as Marcellus levels off. CEO Alan Shepard made the timeline of the company’s plans explicit in last week’s earnings call. CNX still has undeveloped Marcellus acreage in Southwest Pennsylvania that can be brought to market, and drilling in that region is “the most economic thing to do” for now. However, that acreage will be completely developed in the next “four to five years,” after which “the program shifts over to Central Pennsylvania Utica predominately” in the 2030s. The company also discussed projections for in-basin gas demand in the overall Appalachian region, where it is “extremely bullish” long-term. However, contrasting with regional giant EQT, Shepard was reticent to put a number on the growth, stating “that there is a lot of uncertainty on the ultimate end-users” and that the expansion could be 2 Bcf/d or 20 Bcf/d. The company confirmed that they have been in talks to sell gas to long-term to specific end-users, but they will only sign up if they get a premium for fixed delivery. CNX views their role in the market as “maintenance of production” and will only act to grow production if the long-term forward strip encourages it. So despite their stated bullishness, the market will need to get more bullish before the company reacts.

Enbridge Reports Strong Third Quarter Results, Places Over $3 Billion of Gas Transmission Projects Into Service, and Reaffirms 2026 Financial Guidance -  Enbridge Inc today reported third quarter 2026 financial results, reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance and provided a quarterly business update. Highlights:

• Third quarter GAAP earnings attributable to common shareholders of $1.3 billion or $0.59 per common share, compared with GAAP earnings attributable to common shareholders of $0.7 billion or  $0.30 per common share in 2025 
• Adjusted earnings* of $1.1 billion or $0.49 per common share*, compared with $1.0 billion or $0.46 per common share in 2025 
• Adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes and depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)* of $4.4 billion, compared to $4.3 billion in 2025 
• Cash provided by operating activities of $2.7 billion, compared with $2.9 billion in 2025 
• Distributable cash flow (DCF)* of $2.7 billion, compared with $2.6 billion in 2025 
• Reaffirmed 2026 full year financial guidance and medium-term financial outlook 
• Announced the US$2.6 billion acquisition of Tallgrass Energy LP's crude oil business (Tallgrass), which will expand the Company's Liquids Pipelines footprint to include a competitive Rockies-to-Cushing platform, and the US$0.3 billion Pony Express 2 (PXP2) growth project 
• Announced and closed the US$0.6 billion acquisition of Salt Creek Midstream's crude oil gathering business to establish a new wellhead-to-water export service in the growing Permian basin 
• Completed $3.0 billion common equity offering to partially fund the Tallgrass and Salt Creek Midstream acquisitions and to enhance financial flexibility to fund potential future growth opportunities 
• Closed an initial $0.7 billion investment by KKR and Apollo and secured an additional $2 billion commitment to support the Aspen Point and Sunrise Expansion Programs on Westcoast's B.C. Pipeline system 
• Announced US$0.5 billion agreement to acquire the assets of Laramie Energy, providing additional natural gas supply for Enbridge Gas Utah's customers under an existing cost-of-service framework 
• Sanctioned $0.2 billion Long Lake Expansion, supporting CNOOC Petroleum North America's growing operations in Northern Alberta 
• Placed the Aspen Point expansion of B.C. Pipeline and Tennessee Ridgeline projects into service

Enbridge sees gas pipeline opportunities growing despite political changes - Enbridge sees growing opportunities for natural gas pipeline and storage investments across North America, with executives pointing to increasing electricity demand, LNG exports and greater political interest in energy affordability following the U.S. midterm elections. The Calgary-based pipeline operator placed more than $2.1 billion in gas transmission projects into service during the third quarter of 2026, including expansions in British Columbia and Tennessee. It is also advancing a $10.7 billion portfolio of sanctioned gas transmission projects and evaluating additional capacity along existing pipelines. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call, President and CEO Greg Ebel said the changing political landscape has reinforced the importance of energy affordability and reliability, creating opportunities for natural gas infrastructure even in jurisdictions that have historically been reluctant to support pipeline development. Ebel pointed specifically to Massachusetts, where state officials have expressed support for accelerating federal approval of additional gas pipeline capacity. “Even in places like the Northeast on the gas side of things, governments that may not always have been entirely supportive of us,” Ebel said, state leaders are now seeking faster federal permitting decisions. He said Enbridge’s diversified energy infrastructure strategy allows the company to pursue projects across different political and regulatory environments. “We’re not typically following the shiny item. We’re following the fundamentals,” Ebel said. The shift in political attitudes is particularly relevant to Enbridge’s plans to expand natural gas transmission capacity in the northeastern United States. The company is advancing the previously sanctioned Algonquin Enhancement Project while working to secure commercial agreements for Project Beacon, a proposed additional expansion of the Algonquin Gas Transmission system. Matthew Akman, executive vice president of Gas Transmission, said Enbridge completed a successful open season for Project Beacon earlier in 2026 and is continuing negotiations with customers. The company is targeting commercialization of the project by early 2027. Akman said the project is attracting growing interest from customers and policymakers because of its potential to improve natural gas supply and affordability in the region. “It’s demand pull. It’s all about affordability. It’s got strong political support on both sides of the aisle,” Akman said. He noted that governors have written letters seeking faster permitting decisions for natural gas infrastructure. Enbridge said its existing pipeline network provides opportunities for expansions that could increase capacity without requiring entirely new pipeline corridors. The impact of the midterm elections was also raised during a discussion of Ohio, where Democrat Amy Acton was elected governor on Nov. 3. Enbridge has identified approximately 10 GW of potential data center and power generation opportunities in the state, according to an analyst’s question during the call. Michele Harradence, who will succeed Ebel as CEO in January 2027, said Enbridge does not expect the change in political leadership to undermine its investment outlook. She characterized the incoming administration’s approach as balancing economic development with requirements that large electricity users contribute appropriately to infrastructure costs. Harradence noted that Ohio has introduced a regulatory framework addressing large electricity loads, including concerns about how the costs of serving data centers should be allocated. She said predictable regulatory policies remain important to attracting infrastructure investment. Enbridge Gas Ohio is already undertaking a roughly $2.9 billion system modernization program, which Harradence described as the company’s primary investment activity in the state. New data centers and gas-fired power generation could provide additional opportunities beyond that existing program.

Millennium Pipeline Opens Bidding for More Marcellus Gas into NY  - Marcellus Drilling News -- Millennium Pipeline, the pipe that carries northeast Marcellus gas across New York’s Southern Tier, is taking bids on a new expansion called the Ramapo Enhancement Project (REP). The binding open season runs through Nov. 13. Millennium is offering up to 60,000 dekatherms per day (Dth/d) of new firm capacity, roughly 58 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day). The gas would move from the Stagecoach storage hub on the PA-NY border to the Algonquin pipeline at Ramapo, NY, which serves the New York City area and New England. Service would start Nov. 1, 2028. It’s a modest project, but it’s a new pipeline expansion into New York. Pinch us.

Manhole Mystery: Attempted Breach at Transco Site in Carlstadt, NJ -- Marcellus Drilling News - click map for larger version - Early yesterday morning, someone (maybe several someones) tried to get into a restricted area of a Williams Transco pipeline facility in Carlstadt, NJ, by going through the sewer system. Williams says the would-be intruders never made it inside and gas kept flowing normally. But the response was anything but routine. The Bergen County Sheriff’s bomb squad, a K-9 unit, and crime scene investigators all showed up before dawn. As of this writing, nobody has said who these people are, why they were there, or whether anyone has been charged.

WV Lawsuit Blames Benzene, “Radioactive” Brine for Driver’s Cancer -- Marcellus Drilling News - A Roane County, WV, man who spent 12 years driving a truck hauling crude oil and brine has sued 15 energy companies, claiming that on-the-job exposure to benzene and “radioactive fracking brine” gave him a rare bone marrow cancer. The defendant list includes some of the biggest names in the Marcellus/Utica: Antero, EQT, Coterra, Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake), and Shell.

Federal Judge Freezes WV AG Subpoenas of Big Green Groups - Marcellus Drilling News - - Last week we told you that West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey had served subpoenas on at least six environmental groups. He wanted nearly 10 years of their records, and his legal hook was the state’s consumer protection law (see WV AG Probes Climate Groups for Deceptive Claims About Drillers). Two of the groups, the West Virginia Rivers Coalition (WVRC) and 350.org, sued him in federal court. On Thursday, U.S. District Judge Joseph Goodwin sided with the groups and slapped the AG with a temporary restraining order (TRO). The subpoenas were due yesterday, November 2. Now they’re frozen until at least November 12. Goodwin’s 27-page opinion is anything but subtle: he says McCuskey skipped the fishing pole and the net and “brought dynamite to the lake.” So does the judge have a point? Mostly, yes, and it pains us a little to say so (see MDN’s Take below).

Ridgeline Is Online: Pipeline to Kingston Now Open for Business -- Marcellus Drilling News -  Ridgeline Pipeline map (click for larger version) On Oct. 22, we told you Enbridge’s 122-mile Ridgeline Expansion Project in Tennessee was just about ready to flow (see Ridgeline Nears Startup; Court Shreds Ruling Against TVA Gas Plant). Now it’s official. On Oct. 30, FERC staff gave East Tennessee Natural Gas (ETNG), an Enbridge company, written permission to place Ridgeline into service, and the pipeline went into service on Nov. 1. That’s right on the target date Enbridge set before construction started on Oct. 21, 2025. Ridgeline can move up to 300,000 dekatherms per day (Dth/d, roughly 300 MMcf/d, or million cubic feet per day) to the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA) Kingston site in Roane County. TVA has signed up for every bit of it for the next 20 years.

Southeast Connector Update: 20 Shippers, 48-Inch Pipe, Room to Grow - Marcellus Drilling News - - Two weeks ago, MDN told you Kinder Morgan had made a final investment decision (FID) to build the Southeast Connector, a 2.6 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) pipeline designed to carry Marcellus/Utica gas into the Southeast (see Kinder Morgan Greenlights $3.1B Pipe to Flow M-U Gas to Southeast). Now it looks like the straw may be getting bigger. RBN Energy reports that Kinder’s electronic bulletin board shows shipper awards for an additional 1.1 Bcf/d, which would take the project to as much as 3.7 Bcf/d. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reports Kinder awarded 1.12 million Dth/d (dekatherms per day, roughly 1.12 Bcf/d) of firm capacity to 20 bidders. We’ve also learned the pipe will be a whopping 48 inches in diameter, and that Kinder is planning an “Extension” to hand gas off to Transco and other pipelines in Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia.

Enterprise 3Q: M-U Ethane Pipeline Headed for ‘Today’s Market’ Reset -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), the Houston midstream giant that owns ATEX, the 1,230-mile pipeline carrying Marcellus/Utica ethane to Mont Belvieu, TX, reported a blowout third quarter on Thursday. But the part of the earnings call that matters most to M-U drillers and landowners came during Q&A. An analyst asked whether the pending EQT-Range combination changes the math on ATEX recontracting. Enterprise’s answer: not really, but the next round of contracts will be priced for “today’s market.” Translation: the rate reset we told you about in August is still coming.

U.S. Propane’s Surplus Is Gone, and the Midwest Is Running Short | RBN Energy -The EIA reported a 1.6-MMbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 30, the fifth draw in a row and well above the 960-Mbbl draw the industry expected. Stocks fell to 104.1 MMbbl (red line in the chart below), 2 MMbbl, or 2%, below the same week last year (blue line), the first time they have been below last year since October 2025. Stocks are still 10.3 MMbbl, or 11%, above the five-year average (green line). They have fallen 6.4 MMbbl since hitting a record 110.5 MMbbl on September 4, while the five-year average rose 5.5 MMbbl over the same weeks.The national number hides where the shortfall is. The Gulf Coast (PADD 3), which holds 62% of U.S. stocks, is still 1.6 MMbbl above last year and above its previous five-year maximum. The rest of the country is a combined 3.6 MMbbl below last year, and the Midwest (PADD 2) accounts for most of it. Midwest stocks were 25.1 MMbbl, which is 2.8 MMbbl, or 10%, below last year and 80 Mbbl below the five-year minimum for the week (red line in the chart below). They were above last year as recently as September 11, but have fallen 1.5 MMbbl since September 4, while last year they built 1.6 MMbbl over the same weeks. East Coast (PADD 1) stocks are 892 Mbbl, or 9%, below last year. Those regional shortfalls matter more now that heating season is starting. This week's draw came from domestic demand, not exports: product supplied jumped 680 Mb/d to 1.44 MMb/d, while exports fell 364 Mb/d to 1.87 MMb/d. Demand will keep climbing through the winter, and much of it is in the Midwest and East Coast. That leaves the two regions that need propane most this winter starting the season with less in storage than a year ago.

Feds Rewrite LNG Rulebook: What It Means for the Marcellus/Utica -Marcellus Drilling News - Last Wednesday, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) has proposed the first top-to-bottom rewrite of federal LNG facility safety rules in more than two decades. Most of the coverage, and most of the projected savings, centers on the giant LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast. But the Marcellus/Utica has its own LNG industry: peak-shaving plants that keep the gas flowing on the coldest days of winter, plus small liquefaction plants fed by local shale gas. The 236-page proposal touches our corner of the LNG world in several ways, some good and one worth watching. Here's what's in it and what it means for the region.

Plaquemines LNG Finally Goes Commercial – After ~530 Cargoes -- Marcellus Drilling News - It’s official. Venture Global (VG) says Phase 1 of its Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana began “commercial operations” on October 31. That means the customers who signed 20-year contracts back in 2022 are finally getting the LNG they agreed to buy. It took 22 months of “commissioning” to get here, and in that time VG sold roughly 530 cargoes on its own account, many at spot-market prices. And yes, Marcellus/Utica gas helped fill a lot of those ships.

Shell Lifts First Cargo at Plaquemines LNG After Commercial Operations Start at Phase 1 -Venture Global said over the weekend it has started commercial operations at the first phase of its Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana. At a Glance:

• Commercials ops started Saturday
• Phase 2 still commissioning
• Expansion plans in works

Iran War Fuels Louisiana LNG Interest, Complicates Woodside Dealmaking - The Iran war has created both an opportunity and a challenge for Woodside Energy as it works to continue marketing offtake from Louisiana LNG and sell down more interest in the project, CEO Liz Westcott said this week during the company’s capital markets day in Sydney. At a Glance:

• First LNG targeted for 2029
• Talks ongoing to sell more offtake, interest
• Company working to add shipping

Cheniere Ships Record 188 LNG Cargoes in 3Q, Raises Guidance Again -- Marcellus Drilling News - - Cheniere Energy, the country’s largest LNG exporter and a big customer for gas from right here in the Marcellus/Utica, just put up another blockbuster quarter. Cheniere shipped a record 188 cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its two Gulf Coast plants in 3Q26, raised its full-year profit forecast for the third time this year, and bumped its dividend by more than 12%. More important for our neck of the woods: Cheniere is getting close to a final investment decision (FID) on a big expansion at Sabine Pass, Louisiana — the plant where our molecules end up. And in a twist nobody saw coming a few years ago, QatarEnergy is now a Cheniere customer.

LNG Feedgas Intake Declines, but Golden Pass Hits a Milestone | RBN Energy - U.S. LNG feedgas demand dropped last week, driven mostly by lower intake at Freeport LNG, but other terminals performed strongly, and Golden Pass hit a new milestone. Feedgas averaged 19.3 Bcf/d for the week ending November 1, down nearly 0.4 Bcf/d week-on-week. Freeport saw the biggest decline, and the terminal (dark blue shade in the chart below) tripped offline on October 26 due to an interruption in the power feed. The terminal restarted the next day, but didn’t return to full capacity and Train 2 was taken offline for maintenance on November 1. Currently, intake at the terminal is below 1 Bcf/d, indicating the two trains are not at full capacity.Intake at Golden Pass rose last week (lime green at the top of the chart below), averaging 0.77 Bcf/d, with feedgas exceeding 0.8 Bcf/d over the weekend for the first time. Train 1 now appears to be finishing its ramp into service. Intake has been climbing steadily since the beginning of October and the terminal has been exporting cargoes consistently. All other terminals continued operating at full or peak levels. Stay tuned to our LNG Voyager Weekly Report for more details.

ConocoPhillips Expects Port Arthur, NFE LNG Projects to Enter Service in 2027 - ConocoPhillips said Thursday it expects the first 8 Mt/y liquefaction train at Qatar's North Field East (NFE) LNG expansion to enter service in the first half of 2027, reaffirming QatarEnergy's outlook despite uncertainty surrounding the Iran war. At a Glance:

• Offtake has grown to 13 Mt/y
• Port Arthur LNG on track for 2027
• NFE expected to start next year

Freeport LNG Recovery Hits Another Snag Following Gulf South Pipeline Warning - Freeport LNG faced another setback Monday after Gulf South Pipeline (GSP) issued a fresh critical notice citing the Texas export terminal’s failure to take confirmed natural gas quantities, less than a week after a power disruption knocked all three liquefaction trains offline. Pipeline feedgas nominations rebounded sharply from Sunday’s depressed levels but remained below recent averages. Freeport LNG natural gas pipeline deliveries fell to zero Oct. 26, then recovered before dropping again Nov. 1, according to NGI's Entropic Analytics.   At a Glance:
Power outage tripped three liquefaction trains
Gulf South issues fresh scheduling warning
Feedgas nominations remain below average

US LNG Feedgas Demand Holds October Pace Despite Freeport Train 2 Outage - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers:

• 19.7 Bcf/d: US LNG feedgas demand rose about 600 MMcf/d on Wednesday, led by a recovery at Freeport LNG, according to NGI’s Entropic Analytics data. Freeport nominations fell to roughly 530 MMcf/d on Sunday, the day the operator took Train 2 offline for compressor maintenance, according to a filing with the Texas environmental regulators. The filing said the outage lasted about 16 hours, and nominations have since climbed back to about 1.1 Bcf/d. Sabine Pass and deliveries on the Corpus Christi Pipeline also contributed to Wednesday’s gain. NGI estimates another 2.1 Bcf/d of implied deliveries could be reaching Corpus Christi and Freeport on intrastate systems that aren’t captured in nominations data. Golden Pass LNG intake also keeps climbing, averaging about 800 MMcf/d in November compared with 590 MMcf/d in October. Feedgas demand has averaged 19.2 Bcf/d so far this month, in line with October. Feedgas nominations are expected to hold near 19.8 Bcf/d through Nov. 18.
• 10.85 Mt: US LNG exporters shipped 10.85 Mt in October, up from 10.60 Mt in September, according to Kpler vessel tracking data. Cargoes bound for Europe totaled 6.65 Mt, or about 61% of US volumes. That was Europe’s fourth straight monthly gain, up from 3.69 Mt in June. Volumes to Asia fell for a fifth consecutive month, to 2.89 Mt from 4.12 Mt in May, and shipments to Africa nearly halved to 0.57 Mt from 1.07 Mt in September. Total monthly US exports have held between 10.19 Mt and 10.85 Mt since June.
• 1.56 Bcf/d: Feedgas receipts at LNG Canada’s Kitimat, BC, terminal averaged 1.56 Bcf/d in September, according to data from the British Columbia Energy Regulator. Flows to the facility were basically flat with August’s 1.54 Bcf/d and marked a second straight month above 1.5 Bcf/d. Receipts had previously fallen to 1.19 Bcf/d in July amid frequent reported flaring. Receipts held steady even as LNG Canada’s community notices covered flaring on 25 days in September, up from about 18 in August, though most of September’s events were planned, intermittent events. September receipts ran slightly above the terminal’s 1.51 Bcf/d average for the first nine months of 2026 but stayed below the 1.78 Bcf/d high set in June. Exports also held steady, with Kpler tracking 0.94 Mt shipped in both September and August.

US Natural Gas Falls With Oil as Hope for Iran Talks Reemerges – US natural gas futures ended lower, reversing earlier gains, as renewed hope for talks between the US and Iran caused oil and European gas prices to plunge. Lower flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals, led by Freeport LNG in Texas, added further downward pressure to prices by leaving more supply within the domestic market. Losses were limited by production dropping over the weekend, led by declines in the shale fields of Appalachia. US natural gas futures ended lower, reversing earlier gains, as renewed hope for talks between the US and Iran caused oil and European gas prices to plunge. Those falling prices likely triggered a selloff of baskets of commodities that include US gas, even though US gas is insulated in the short-run from overseas supply shocks because of the limits of US gas export capacity. Lower flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals, led by Freeport LNG in Texas, added further downward pressure to prices by leaving more supply within the domestic market. Losses were limited by production dropping over the weekend, led by declines in the shale fields of Appalachia. The dip in supply signals producers may be curtailing output because of low prices. Forecasts also shifted slightly cooler, indicating higher demand for the furnace and power-plant fuel as the winter heating season gets underway. Nevertheless, weather outlooks show persistently above-average temperatures across the US in the coming weeks, despite any incremental increases in heating demand. Futures for December delivery settled -4.2c, or -1.5%, to $2.856/mmbtu on Nymex.
The December contract is at 24.1 on the 14-day RSI indicator, below the 30 oversold level. Forecasts shifted slightly cooler, but above-average temperatures are still expected across most of the US through Nov. 16: Commodity Weather Group
See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA
Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the U.S.
Daily BNEF Gas Data:
Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday ~110.0 bcf/day, or -0.3% y/y
Lower-48 total gas demand on Monday ~73.1 bcf/day, or -2.9% y/y
Dry gas exports to Mexico on Monday ~5.6 bcf/day, or -20% w/w
Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Monday ~19.5 bcf/day, or +5.3% w/w
Gas Market News:
Freeport LNG Power Supply Shows Signs of Recovery After Dip
European Gas Prices Drop as Traders Weigh Iran Diplomacy Efforts
European Gas Summer-Winter Spread Climbs to New High: BNEF Chart
Permian Basin Nat Gas Production Falls an Estimated 6.8%: BNEF.

Could Democrats Unlock Hormuz After Midterm Rout? LNG Markets Watching Washington  -Global energy prices fell on Wednesday after sweeping Democratic victories in the US midterm election raised the prospect that the Trump administration’s war in Iran could now be limited and a peace deal might come sooner. At a Glance:

• Global energy prices fall after US election
• Administration still has leeway over foreign policy
• But Trump facing pressure to end war

As Data Centers Move In, Iowa Residents Fight Plans for a New Gas Plant - —Nearly 50 people gathered at the American Legion Post on a July evening to learn about a proposed natural gas plant less than three miles from town. Seated in folding chairs, they pulled out their phones and typed responses to a simple question: How are you feeling? The words “angry,” “disgusted” and “scared” flashed across a TV screen at the front of the room. For many, the meeting drudged up a familiar feeling of frustration. Nine months earlier, Interstate Power and Light, an Iowa-based subsidiary of Alliant Energy, had abandoned plans to build a natural gas-fired power plant in Fairfax after fierce opposition from residents and leaders at the nearby Eastern Iowa Airport. The proposed 160-acre site is in unincorporated Linn County territory, right over the border from neighboring Benton County. The cities of Fairfax, Atkins and Cedar Rapids, home to a combined 140,000 residents, all fall within three miles of the proposed plant. The facilities’ 150-foot-tall exhaust towers would emit carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds. From the podium at the American Legion, Jon Lee, a spokesperson for the grassroots group Save Morgan Valley, urged his neighbors to remain engaged with plans for the plant. “Big decisions like this deserve real answers,” Lee said. “Stay informed, and keep showing up.” All summer long, the group mobilized opposition. Members invited neighbors to town halls, filed testimony with the Iowa Utilities Commission and presented a united front in matching orange shirts at county zoning commission and board of supervisor meetings. Their persistence is paying off. In October, the three-person Linn County Board of Supervisors voted unanimously to reject Alliant’s rezoning request for the proposed site, after nearly four hours of comments from residents and Alliant representatives. Concerns raised by residents at the hearing spanned land use, water use and utility rates. But comments repeatedly returned to the projected emissions of the proposed plant. “We’re living in an era of extraordinary technological advancement, and yet when it comes to powering that advancement we’re being told that building another fossil fuel power plant is the answer,” Jenny Kellison, of Fairfax, told the supervisors. “I find that incredibly disappointing.” Supervisor Sami Scheetz voted against the rezoning request, arguing that Alliant’s proposal failed to meet county requirements for water and wastewater infrastructure. Still, he told Inside Climate News, the board’s decision reflected “overwhelming,” bipartisan community opposition to the plant being built. “What was really important for me was a constituent just asking me, ‘Do you think this is good for the community?’ And I really didn’t feel comfortable saying yes to that,” Scheetz said. According to Alliant’s filings with the Iowa Utilities Commission, the Morgan Valley Energy Center would consist of three single-cycle combustion turbines, designed to start up quickly during periods of high load demand. The application notes possible plans to expand to a combined-cycle facility in the future. “We are disappointed with the Linn County Board of Supervisors’ decision not to approve the Morgan Valley Energy Center application,” Alliant wrote in a statement to Inside Climate News. The proposed power plant “is critical to meeting growing energy demand and supporting the reliable electric service that customers and communities depend on,” the utility added. “Alliant Energy has decades of experience safely operating energy infrastructure under rigorous regulatory and environmental oversight.” Single-cycle gas “peaker” plants are significantly less fuel-efficient than combined-cycle plants, resulting in higher carbon dioxide emissions per unit of power generated. The Morgan Valley Energy Center would produce roughly one and a half million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents each year, according to Alliant’s air construction permit application with the state Department of Natural Resources. While Alliant has not directly linked the additional generation to multiple hyper-scale data centers under development in and around Cedar Rapids, several company representatives acknowledged during the October hearing that the data centers have driven load growth across their service area. “Alliant Energy does not build generation to serve a single customer or industry,” said Ben Rogers, a senior community and public affairs specialist for Alliant and a former Linn County supervisor. “Data centers are an important source of new demand, but they are not the only reason the electric system must continue to evolve.”Google and QTS are currently building side-by-side data center campuses on a 1,000-acre industrial lot in Cedar Rapids. When completed, the two campuses will use a combined 1.6 gigawatts of electricity.This summer, the Linn County Board of Supervisors approved an 18-month moratorium on rezoning applications for large-scale data centers in unincorporated county territory. But the pause doesn’t apply to data centers in incorporated cities, including those in Cedar Rapids. Google also moved to annex unincorporated Linn County land for a second hyper-scale data center campus into the small city of Palo this year, effectively freeing the project from county jurisdiction. That campus will purchase energy generated by the restarted Duane Arnold Energy Center, Iowa’s only nuclear facility.The electricity demand spurred by data centers being built in Linn County cannot be overstated, said John Zakrasek, director of the nonprofit organization Linn Clean Energy District and board member of the Clean Energy Districts of Iowa.If all three hyperscale campuses are built to full capacity, they will increase Linn County’s projected electricity demand nearly fivefold. “How are we going to meet that electricity demand? If we’re going to do it with fossil fuel plants, gas plants, and so on, we’re going to go ahead and push emissions way up,” Zakrasek said.

Natural Gas Storage Nears 3.9 Tcf, but Is That Enough for Winter? - Exceptionally mild November weather could push natural gas inventories toward 3.9 Tcf deep into November before winter withdrawals begin. But analysts caution that growing LNG exports could leave the market needing a larger storage cushion to protect against winter demand swings.NGI chart of U.S. working natural gas storage showing 2026 inventories reaching 3,800 Bcf on Oct. 30, above the 2021–2025 average but below 2025 levels, with historical peaks in early November. At a Glance:
Storage peak projected near 3.9 Tcf
First withdrawal could arrive in late November
LNG growth raises importance of winter inventories

Long Time – As Brownfield Options for Gas Storage Run Out, Greenfield Ones Will Come to the Fore - The Gulf Coast will require vast amounts of incremental natural gas storage space over the next few years. Brownfield expansions to existing salt cavern facilities appear to have an economic edge, but there are only so many potential projects like that. As brownfield opportunities run out, LNG export terminals and others that need more storage will likely turn to the best greenfield projects being planned. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on Gulf Coast gas storage with a look at a couple more brownfield projects and a few greenfield sites too.This is Part 4 in the series. In Part 1, we said that after a long period of storage-capacity surplus and relatively low storage prices, the Gulf Coast market is now in the midst of a massive buildout expected to continue into the early 2030s. The growth is driven primarily by the storage needs of new and expanding LNG export facilities. In Part 2, we discussed the sharply higher gas storage rates that LNG terminal operators in particular are now willing to pay for Firm Storage Services (FSS) and looked at how much new gas storage is likely to be built along the Gulf Coast over the next few years. We also said that for economic and other reasons most of the near-term storage projects will be brownfield expansions to existing salt cavern facilities.In Part 3, we began a review of the Gulf Coast storage projects currently under development, beginning with brownfield expansions at existing salt cavern facilities owned by Enbridge, Caliche Storage and Enstor. Today, we continue that review with a look at three more brownfield salt cavern projects (Williams/Pine Prairie, ONEOK/JISH and New Jersey Resources/Leaf River) and two of a half-dozen greenfield projects of that same type (NeuVentus’s TRU Hub and Texas Brine’s White Castle). In an upcoming blog, we’ll discuss other planned greenfield projects, including a few depleted-reservoir proposals.Before we start, a reminder that brownfield projects typically have an economic advantage because much of their required infrastructure (compressors, brine management systems, pipeline interconnections, etc.) is already in place. Greenfield salt cavern projects may have an edge because, for example, they may be located in tried-and-true salt formations and/or well-sited to serve LNG terminals and tie into multiple gas pipelines. (And, as we’ll get to, scale can help too — so can the project-finance record of the project’s equity sponsor.)Williams Cos., which owns six gas storage facilities across Louisiana and Mississippi — some salt cavern and some depleted reservoir — with a combined capacity of about 200 Bcf, announced plans in February 2025 to add another 10.8 Bcf of working gas capacity at its 50-Bcf Pine Prairie salt cavern storage facility in Evangeline Parish, LA. The one-cavern expansion also will add 300 MMcf/d of injection capacity and 500 MMcf/d of withdrawal capacity, bringing Pine Prairie’s total injection and withdrawal capacities to 2.7 Bcf/d and 3 Bcf/d, respectively. Williams secured Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approval for the project in May. Construction began in Q3 2026, with commercial operation to follow in Q4 2028.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: AltaGas Sees Record LPG Export Volumes | RBN Energy  - AltaGas reported its third quarter 2026 results on October 29. The company’s two LPG export terminals shipped a record 147.2 Mb/d of LPG to Asia, up 11% year-over-year, including 89.1 Mb/d from its Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal (RIPET), and 58 Mb/d out of Ferndale. Gathering and Processing volumes were up 20% year-over-year thanks in part to the start-up of the Pipestone II natural gas plant late last year.Due to strong financial results in Q3, management now expects 2026 Normalized EBITDA and EPS to land towards the higher end of its prior guidance ranges, despite a labor strike at Trigon’s Pacific Terminals that began October 2. Trigon provides rail logistics and berthing services for RIPET, and while RIPET’s October volumes were not materially impacted, AltaGas expects reduced volumes out of RIPET going forward while the strike continues.  There were no material changes to in-service timing guidance for AltaGas’s various LPG export terminal projects at Prince Rupert.  Phase 1 of the Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF), which will add 56 Mb/d of LPG export capacity, is now about 90% complete and continues to be expected to be in service in Q1 2027 at a cost of roughly CAD$1.5 billion. Construction of the jetty is now complete (see image below), and the focus is shifting to the installation of the mooring system, which is now expected complete early in the new year instead of by December, and suction anchors. The RIPET methanol removal project is expected to be mechanically complete within weeks with start-up on track for year-end 2026. Completion of REEF Optimization I (+30 Mb/d propane capacity) continues to be expected in the second half of 2027, and AltaGas continues to target an FID for REEF Optimization II (+60 Mb/d LPG capacity) by year-end, with an in-service date potentially as early as late 2029.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: EOG Lifts 2026 Oil Guidance, Doubles Janus Plant as Well Performance Beats Expectations | RBN Energy -  EOG Resources’ Q3 2026 earnings call centered on how its US wells keep getting better. Oil production hit a record 550 Mbbl/d, above guidance, and the company raised its full-year guidance to 550 Mbbl/d (from 549) even after selling its legacy Barnett and Woodford positions. Q4 guidance is 548-553 Mbbl/d. Delaware Basin wells have come in “a little better than our expectations,” said Keith Trasko, SVP of Exploration and Production, holding flat to slightly up versus 2025. CEO Ezra Yacob said EOG expects low single-digit oil growth in 2027 at roughly its current activity level, adding, “If current oil supply demand fundamentals persist, we believe the market needs more oil supply next year.”Yacob credited much of the gain to better completions, specifically “high intensity fracs and adding horsepower,” an approach EOG developed in the Eagle Ford and then carried to the Permian, the Utica and its South Texas gas acreage. In the Delaware, lower costs have made more rock worth drilling. “We have more targets than I ever imagined several years ago,” Trasko said, and EOG expects consistent returns there for the next 10 years. In the Utica, where EOG expanded last year by buying Encino, its rigs drill about 24% more feet per day than in early 2025 (see chart below). Those gains are why EOG still expects well costs to fall slightly this year despite pricier steel and diesel. COO Jeffrey Leitzell expects “modest inflation next year” for drilling and completions, so 2027 will test whether efficiency can keep outrunning service costs.On gas, EOG signed a 10-year supply deal with ENGIE priced off JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, starting by 2030, which management said lifts its LNG-linked sales to more than 1 Bcf/d. It also approved doubling its Janus processing plant in the Delaware to 600 MMcf/d by the second half of 2028, as new pipelines bring more Permian gas to market and processing gets tighter. Yacob described the strategy as growing “essentially a premium gas company underneath the umbrella of our premium oil company,” and said the company isn’t investing “to move a whole bunch of gas to the Gulf Coast and hope” for good prices.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: ConocoPhillips’ New CEO Leans on the Permian and LNG for Growth | RBN Energy -  On his first earnings call as CEO, Andy O’Brien pointed to the Lower 48 as ConocoPhillips’ growth engine. Total production was 2.302 MMboe/d in Q3, with guidance of 2.32-2.36 MMboe/d for Q4 and low-single-digit growth expected in 2027 on lower capital. Permian completion crews pumped 15% more hours than their 2025 average, and one crew hit a record 23 hours a day in August by fracking several wells at once. EVP Kirk Johnson said rising activity, mostly from smaller operators, is “tightening capacity, especially across the oilfield services space,” with rig utilization above 90% and frac fleets above 75%.LNG is the next leg of growth. ConocoPhillips now holds 13 MTPA of offtake, about 1.7 Bcf/d of feedgas. Its first new volumes come from Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 in Jefferson County, TX, where it is a 30% owner and Train 1 is due to start up in 2027. With TTF near $30 and Henry Hub below $4, against the $10 and $4 in its long-term plan, O’Brien said, “we can’t get these volumes on fast enough.” Back home, the company’s Permian gas price flipped from negative in Q2 to 69% of Henry Hub in Q3 as new pipeline takeaway capacity came online. Willow, in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, remains on track for first oil in early 2029. Its processing modules are more than 75% complete on the Gulf Coast and will be shipped to Alaska in summer 2027, when development drilling also begins.In Qatar, ConocoPhillips’ LNG production rose in Q3 but remains below pre-conflict levels as Strait of Hormuz disruptions limit flows, and Q4 guidance allows for a range of outcomes. Johnson said construction on North Field East has continued, with startup still expected in the first half of 2027 and North Field South to follow. The conflict is also raising costs for fuel, logistics and chemicals, by double digits in some categories, though Johnson said overall inflation remains in the low single digits.

U.S. Rig Count Edges Up One to 604; Haynesville Leads as Gulf of Mexico Slips | RBN Energy - U.S. oil and gas rig count edged up one rig to 604 for the week ending November 6 according to Baker Hughes data, extending its run above 600 to a fifth straight week, as gains in Haynesville (+2), Permian (+1) and All Other (+1) outweighed declines in Gulf of Mexico (-2) and the Bakken (-1). Oil-directed rigs rose to 463 (+1) and gas-directed rigs climbed to 131 (+1), while miscellaneous rigs declined to 10 (-1). Total U.S. rig count is up 16 over the last 90 days and now stands 58 rigs above this week last year.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: Genesis Cites Unplanned Curtailments for Drop in Offshore Oil Volumes | RBN Energy -- Genesis Energy said its Offshore Pipeline Transportation segment experienced no weather-related shut-ins during Q3 2026, typically the most active part of the hurricane season, but volumes still came in lower than anticipated due to lower crude oil production at some facilities that flow exclusively through its pipeline network, the company said during its earnings call November 5. The lower volumes were the result of “unplanned curtailments at a couple of our legacy connected fields, the continuing challenges from two of the initial wells at Shenandoah, and a planned turnaround at Salamanca that was moved forward from the fourth quarter into the third quarter,” CEO Grant Sims said. “As we said last quarter, we do not believe any of these items have longer-term negative implications for the ultimate recovery of reserves already discovered and being developed.”  The Shenandoah floating production unit (FPU; teal platform icon in map below), operated by Beacon Offshore Energy, began production in July 2025 through Genesis’s SYNC pipeline. The Salamanca FPU (orange platform icon), operated by LLOG, began production in September 2025 and flows through Genesis’s SEKCO and Poseidon systems. Lower production will continue into Q4 2026 and into the early part of 2027, until four new, high-impact wells are completed and turned to production. Other highlights from the earnings report:

• The company expects two new Monument wells, which will tie back to the Shenandoa FPU, to be online by the end of Q1 2027
• A fifth Shenandoah well is scheduled to be online by year-end 2027
• The expansion of the Shenandoah FPU to 140 Mb/d is progressing

Still Not Dead – Valero Acquisition Breathes New Life into LyondellBasell’s Shuttered Houston Refinery | RBN Energy -Valero Energy is paying $320.5 million to purchase LyondellBasell’s mothballed refinery on the Houston Ship Channel, with plans to restart 165 Mb/d of light, sweet crude processing at the site by the end of 2027. The deal, announced on October 30, comes after years of U.S. refinery closures and highlights the Gulf Coast’s advantages as a refining hub. Restarting an idled plant takes money, time and a clear operating plan, and Valero’s approach figures to be one of the fastest ways to add a substantial block of refining capacity at an economically justifiable cost. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what it all means for Valero and the U.S. refining outlook.LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery (see photo below) traces its roots to 1918, when Sinclair Refining Company, founded by oilman Harry Sinclair, acquired 710 acres along the Houston Ship Channel and began constructing the facility's first distillation units. Atlantic Richfield (ARCO) acquired Sinclair in 1969, and in 1985 formed Lyondell Chemical Company from a collection of refining and petrochemical assets, including the Houston refinery and its Channelview petrochemical complex. Lyondell became publicly traded in 1989, and ARCO subsequently divested its remaining ownership.In 1993, Lyondell formed the Lyondell-CITGO Refining joint venture (JV) with CITGO Petroleum, a subsidiary of Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA, to expand the refinery’s ability to process cheaper, heavy, high-sulfur Venezuelan crude. Lyondell initially held about an 86% interest in the venture, but CITGO’s stake increased as it helped finance a major refinery upgrade, completed in early 1997 at a cost of around $1.1 billion. The ownership split ultimately reached 58.75% for Lyondell and 41.25% for CITGO. The partnership also included long-term arrangements for Venezuelan crude supplies and refined-product sales. Lyondell subsequently bought out CITGO’s stake in the JV in an August 2006 transaction valued at approximately $2.1 billion, giving it full ownership of the facility.  In December 2007, Basell acquired Lyondell Chemical, creating LyondellBasell Industries, which has primarily operated as a chemical company with a strategic shift toward circular and low-carbon solutions. LyondellBasell reportedly made several attempts to sell the refinery over the years as the company’s strategic priorities shifted away from refining. LyondellBasell ultimately opted to begin winding down operations at the 264-Mb/d refinery in late January 2025, with the shutdown extending into February and the facility fully idled by March. [Interestingly, Valero’s interest in the facility may date back a decade. Reuters reported in August 2016 that Valero was among several companies that had expressed interest in acquiring the refinery. Valero declined to comment at the time, and no deal materialized. LyondellBasell again explored a potential sale in 2021, with industry analysts identifying Valero as a logical buyer given its existing Houston refining operation (more on this below).]LyondellBasell had plans to repurpose parts of the refinery, including its hydrotreaters, to produce plastic pellets from recycled materials by 2027, but these concepts had not advanced to concrete approvals. In a news release on October 30, LyondellBasell said its deal with Valero represents another step in the company’s “ongoing portfolio transformation, sharpening its focus on businesses and assets that offer the strongest strategic fit and long-term value creation potential while strengthening its ability to allocate capital in line with its company strategy.”Closing of the transaction is subject to customary conditions and approvals and is expected to occur by the end of 2026.That brings us to Valero, which is no stranger to the refining business and has three nearby refineries already in operation (Note – all capacities include total throughput, crude plus other feedstocks):

• Houston, TX: The 255-Mb/d Galena Park refinery (yellow refinery icon at center-left in Figure 1 below) is on the same stretch of the Houston Ship Channel as the shuttered LyondellBasell site (black refinery icon). The refinery mainly runs light sweet crude. In the mid-2010s, Valero added a 90-Mb/d crude topping unit, so it could run even more very light Eagle Ford crude from South Texas.
• Texas City, TX: The 260-Mb/d Texas City refinery (yellow refinery icon at bottom) is about 40 miles south of Houston. A $337 million upgrade in 2003 added a 45-Mb/d heavy coker, allowing it to run heavier crudes such as Mexican Maya.
• Port Arthur, TX: The 435-Mb/d Port Arthur refinery (yellow icon at right) is about 90 miles east of Houston. It has been reported that the company has upgrades planned for its largest crude unit to increase the refinery’s design capacity by 25 Mb/d (to 460 Mb/d). Valero has not confirmed the increase, but we have included it in our Future of Fuels forecast for now.

There are some possible synergies with Valero’s existing Houston-area refineries that could make the LyondellBasell site more useful than it would have been to a buyer without nearby operations. Valero’s Houston and Texas City refineries and the LyondellBasell site all share the same deepwater channel and pipeline network. In theory, it would be logical for these refineries to share resources, such as moving crude and feedstocks between one another or exchanging products and sharing downstream units (something already being done to some extent between the Houston and Texas City plants). Valero has not detailed how it would integrate the sites further and these efficiencies are only possibilities, not an announced operating plan.Valero described the refinery acquisition as a way to expand its Gulf Coast footprint and create what it calls “commercial optimization opportunities.” As noted earlier, the more immediate plan is to restart 165 Mb/d of light, sweet crude processing rather than bring the entire refinery — including its 90-Mb/d heavy-crude processing units — back online. That approach could require fewer operating units and less upfront investment, although Valero has yet to disclose the final configuration or estimated cost of the restart. Any return to heavy-crude processing would be a separate, longer-term investment. Notably, both of the refinery’s coker units have already been demolished, meaning new heavy crude processing capacity at the site would require the construction of a brand-new coker unit and other supporting facilities, which would entail significant capital.Still, Valero left the door open to a bigger role for heavy, sour crude. In announcing the acquisition, Valero Chairman, CEO and President Lane Riggs said the deal “is expected to provide a compelling financial return, consistent with Valero’s disciplined capital allocation framework, while generating attractive commercial optimization opportunities and supporting future investment in high-complexity, heavy sour crude oil processing.”The acquisition comes as the Trump administration looks to bolster domestic refining capacity. On October 22, President Trump announced plans to make up to $150 million available through the Defense Production Act (DPA) Title III program to expand petroleum production, storage and logistics at U.S. refineries. The Department of Energy (DOE) said the funding is intended to boost domestic output of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products, with the potential to increase U.S. refining output by millions of gallons per day. Whether Valero’s Houston refinery project could qualify for any of that funding remains unclear.The potential revival of the LyondellBasell refinery comes after years of closures across the U.S., a trend that has taken a significant bite out of the nation’s crude processing capacity. According to the latest edition of our Future of Fuels report, the U.S. lost about 1.9 MMb/d of refining capacity between 2019 and the first half of 2026. That includes full refinery shutdowns, partial closures and conversions to renewable fuels. Some of the biggest losses came in 2020 and 2021 in the wake of the COVID lockdowns, including Shell’s 240-Mb/d Convent refinery in Louisiana, Marathon Petroleum’s 150-160-Mb/d Martinez facility in California and Phillips 66’s 255-Mb/d Alliance refinery in Louisiana. Phillips 66 closed its 139-Mb/d Wilmington/Carson complex in California in 2025. Valero completed the shutdown of its 150-Mb/d Benicia refinery in California in April 2026. The largest single closure over this period actually occurred pre-COVID, when the 335-Mb/d Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery closed in mid-2019 after an explosion at its alkylation unit.Despite the 1.9 MMb/d of official closures, total U.S. refinery capacity has fallen by just 800 Mb/d since 2019 due to expansions at other plants. Gross refinery throughput is set to finish 2026 only about 400 Mb/d below the all-time high set in 2018. This apparent increase in utilization is driven by two factors. First, the closures occurred primarily in less-competitive plants that operated at below-average utilization rates. Second, small expansions, often called “capacity creep,” don’t always get reflected in the official Energy Information Administration (EIA) capacity data yet they contribute to increased throughput, created by an apparent increase in utilization. RBN tracks this capacity creep in its Future of Fuels report, which already anticipated PADD 3 refining capacity growing from 9.9 MMb/d in 2026 to nearly 10.3 MMb/d in 2040, mostly as the result of continued comparatively small refinery expansion projects and debottlenecks across the region. The refinery’s location is an important factor in its planned restart. Unlike California, where refineries face a more challenging regulatory environment, declining petroleum demand and limited access to alternative crude supplies and product markets, the Gulf Coast benefits from abundant domestic crude production, an extensive network of pipelines and storage facilities, access to export markets, a lower overall operating cost structure, and a more favorable regulatory environment. Those advantages make restarting an existing Gulf Coast refinery a more attractive proposition than bringing a shuttered West Coast facility back online. The proposed restart also fits with our more favorable longer-term regional outlook. While we point to continued pressure on overall U.S. refining capacity, the Gulf Coast remains well positioned to serve both domestic and international fuel markets.Still, plenty of questions remain. Valero has yet to disclose how much it will cost to restart the refinery, exactly which processing units will return to service or whether it can meet its targeted year-end 2027 startup. And perhaps the biggest longer-term question is whether Valero will eventually invest in restoring the refinery's ability to process heavy, sour crude, a capability that once made the facility an important destination for Venezuelan barrels. For now, the focus is on bringing light, sweet crude processing back online, but the refinery's history suggests there could be a much bigger opportunity down the road.

Few Repercussions for Oil Firm's Continued Leaks After Couple's Death From Toxic Gas - When Rachel Curtis visited her 86-year-old grandmother in Odessa, Texas, last summer, the putrid odor of hydrogen sulfide hit her as soon as she got out of the car. She could smell the toxic gas, which is often compared to rotten eggs and is fatal in high concentrations, inside her grandmother’s house. Her grandmother has lived about 50 yards from an oil pumpjack for decades and was used to the smell, but she was suffering from frequent headaches—a common effect of exposure to hydrogen sulfide, or H2S. Worried about her grandmother’s health, Curtis grew even more upset when she found out who operates the pumpjack and other oil equipment nearby: Aghorn Operating. The company had recently pleaded guilty to criminal health and safety violations related to the 2019 deaths of an employee, Jacob Dean, and his wife, Natalee—who were killed by a cloud of hydrogen sulfide inside a nearby Aghorn pumphouse. Dean was checking on some malfunctioning equipment inside an Aghorn facility when he collapsed in a cloud of hydrogen sulfide. Natalee went looking for him and died next to him. Their kids, then 6 and 9, were sitting in the car outside. After the deaths, Curtis felt both Aghorn and authorities should be keeping better tabs on all of its facilities. “It just really ticks me off because, I mean, she’s an 86-year-old woman who’s lived across the street from this for how many years,” said Curtis, a high school teacher who had been friendly with the Deans before she moved across the state. “I feel like something should have been done.” Aghorn and its president, Frosty Gilliam, didn’t respond to calls, emails and detailed questions. In a court filing last year, Aghorn stated that since the 2019 deaths, the company had hired a full-time safety manager, established written safety policies, conducted hydrogen sulfide safety training and upgraded monitors and alarms for the gas in various facilities. “Aghorn has substantially improved the safety of its facilities and instituted measures to ensure the safety of its employees and the general public,” it said. Often called “sour gas,” hydrogen sulfide forms naturally underground in some oil-rich regions of the world and can get released into the air during oil production. It can also escape from badly sealed equipment. Low levels of the gas can irritate the eyes and respiratory system and chronic exposure has been associated with neurological problems like fatigue, impaired memory, headaches and dizziness. As The Examination and the Houston Chronicle detailed in a 2024 investigation, tens of thousands of Texans live near hydrogen sulfide hotspots, but despite community complaints of exposure, state regulators have largely failed to hold companies accountable. When investigators find the gas seeping into the air, companies usually get what amounts to a fix-it ticket, often without any penalty. Problems can persist for years. That pattern has continued with Aghorn, despite the deaths in the heart of the Permian Basin. Federal prosecutors charged Aghorn with willfully violating worker safety laws, causing the death of an employee, as well as obstruction and false statements. They added a conspiracy charge, alleging a widespread practice, continuing to 2024, of putting profits and convenience above human health and safety. Prosecutors documented a pattern of chronic leaks and unsafe practices that continued years after the Deans’ deaths. “At Aghorn,” they wrote in a 2024 filing, “placing workers, contractors, and the public at risk was a way of doing business that was deeply ingrained in the corporate culture.” The company pleaded guilty last year to the more limited charges of negligent endangerment and willful violation of safety laws, paying a $1 million fine. As part of the plea deal, Aghorn admitted its failure to implement workplace protections was a cause of Jacob Dean’s death and that its representatives “had neglected to control H2S emissions and provide adequate safety systems, which negligence placed Natalee Dean in imminent danger of death.” The company’s vice president, Trent Day, was sentenced to five months in prison. Industry consultant Jim Kirksey, who reviewed the evidence for prosecutors, wrote in a report filed in the case that Aghorn mostly ignored health and safety complaints, and that the state’s oil regulator, the Texas Railroad Commission, was slow to act. “The residents who live or work near Aghorn Operating facilities are the innocent victims of Aghorn Operating non-compliance with H2S safety regulations,” Kirksey wrote in his 2024 report, noting that complaints of headaches and nausea were commonplace. Aghorn objected to Kirksey’s qualifications in court filings. Shortly after that report was written, Adrianna Yanez, a mother of four who lives about 11 miles west of Curtis on the outskirts of Odessa, complained to regulators about hydrogen sulfide leaks wafting toward her home that she said caused bad headaches and bouts of vomiting. Inspectors from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality found gas leaking from an Aghorn pumpjack just over 100 meters from her house. The company patched it, and TCEQ resolved the complaint with no penalty, records show. The Railroad Commission then found gas leaking from storage tanks and an unlit flare about a third of a mile away and told Aghorn to fix it. Investigators came back twice and found gas still leaking. On the fourth visit, in early 2025, they didn’t see any leaks and closed the investigation. The smell went away for a few months, Yanez said, and then it came back.“It’s really sad because I guess they see us as the poor people who live out here on the west side of Odessa and they could care less about our health or our children,” Yanez told The Examination recently.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: Shell Builds Its Next Wave of LNG and Offshore Supply | RBN Energy - Shell’s next growth chapter is taking shape around a familiar strategy: connect new resources to infrastructure it already owns. During its Q3 2026 earnings call, the company highlighted a project pipeline spanning Canadian LNG, offshore oil and potential Caribbean gas developments. The common thread is investment in locations where Shell can pair upstream supply with existing processing, transportation and marketing capabilities, improving the opportunity to earn returns across the value chain.Shell’s recently completed acquisition of ARC Resources adds approximately 370,000 boe/d and strengthens the resource base supporting its Canadian operations. Alongside that acquisition, the company sanctioned LNG Canada Phase 2, which will double the facility’s liquefaction capacity and provide Shell with nearly 6 million metric tons per year (equivalent to around 120.5 Mb/d) of additional LNG volumes. Management pointed to existing infrastructure and more competitive contractor pricing as advantages for the expansion. Notably, Phase 2 benefits were excluded from the original ARC acquisition investment case, creating potential additional value as Shell connects a larger upstream portfolio with growing export capacity. For the market, the expansion would increase access to Canadian gas through a Pacific Coast outlet, adding supply diversification for LNG buyers increasingly attentive to transportation routes and energy security. Shell is also advancing options to sustain its liquids portfolio into the next decade. Management identified the Equinor-operated Bay du Nord project offshore Canada as targeting a final investment decision in early 2027, while Nigeria’s Bonga South West could reach that milestone next year if conditions align. These remain prospective developments rather than committed near-term supply additions, but they illustrate Shell’s effort to replenish its offshore project inventory. In Venezuela, the company described a potential gas opportunity centered on connecting new offshore developments to existing infrastructure in Trinidad and available Atlantic LNG capacity. Management framed that integration as a stronger fit for Shell’s capabilities than Venezuelan heavy oil. The market implication is a project development that could broaden both supply sources and export flexibility over time. LNG Canada Phase 2 has moved into the sanctioned category, while the offshore oil and Venezuelan gas opportunities still face investment decisions and execution requirements. Their eventual contribution will depend on development schedules, commercial terms and infrastructure access, making the distinction between an attractive resource opportunity and committed new supply essential.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: South Bow Continues to Target Mid-2027 FID for Prairie Connector | RBN Energy  According to South Bow’s third quarter results, throughput on Keystone set a third quarter record, averaging 586 Mb/d, while volumes on the Gulf Coast segment averaged about 663 Mb/d. South Bow began lifting pressure restrictions on certain segments of the Keystone pipeline. Management noted that low inventories at Cushing are contributing to relatively tight pricing differentials between Cushing and the Gulf Coast.The company continues to target a mid-2027 FID for Prairie Connector, and continues to seek not just permitting, but assurance regarding permit durability. Management expects Western Canadian crude supply will likely outstrip export pipeline egress capacity by some point in 2027 even with the near-term expansions starting up. In 2027 South Bow expects to invest about CAD$65 million in pre-FID work associated with Prairie Connector and Liberty Bridge projects and CAD$30-$50 million in maintenance capital.

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: Suncor Continues Strong Execution | RBN Energy - Suncor reported free funds flow of CAD$5.2 billion and record refined product sales of 677 Mb/d for the third quarter of 2026. Upstream production of 852.5 Mb/d was down 2% year-over-year, while refinery crude oil throughput was down about 1% year-over-year to 487.7 Mb/d.  The quarter saw major planned turnarounds at Syncrude and at Suncor’s Edmonton and Montreal refineries. All three turnarounds were executed at “best ever” costs and durations.After having re-rated the combined nameplate capacity of its four refineries last year from 466 Mb/d to 511 Mb/d, recently Suncor has had days with throughput north of 520 Mb/d. Year-to-date through September, Suncor’s jet fuel sales were up 65% to 38 Mb/d, and refined product exports were up 65% to 75 Mb/d.  On the conference call management indicated the company may consider accelerating growth plans, relative to the 400 Mb/d, 10-year in situ (SAGD) growth plan it outlined this spring. Management noted that the Canadian federal government’s recently announced “mega deduction” income tax incentive helps, and the Alberta government is working on an incentivized royalty system. CEO Rich Kruger does not know whether a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) between the Oil Sands Alliance and the federal and Alberta governments will be signed by the November 15 deadline, but does not view that deadline as final, noting the parties are working hard but “we would far rather have a good deal when we're ready…versus a bad or an incomplete deal at an artificial date or deadline.” The MOU intends to promise expedited regulatory processes and more pipeline capacity (West Coast-Pacific Link pipeline) to facilitate oil sands growth, in exchange for the Oil Sands Alliance committing to build a major carbon capture network in the oil sands.

LNG Canada Feedgas Steady as Station 2 Natural Gas Prices Strengthen -LNG Canada kept feedgas flowing steadily to its Kitimat, BC, export terminal in September, even as flaring notices stretched across most of the month. At a Glance:

• September receipts averaged 1.56 Bcf/d
• Data shows exports steady near 0.94 Mt
• Station 2 averaged about C$1.30/GJ

NFE Targets Year-End Altamira LNG Return After Export Hiatus -- New Fortress Energy (NFE) is maintaining a fourth quarter restart target for its Altamira LNG facility offshore Mexico, keeping a source of US natural gas export demand in focus as Agua Dulce prices trail Henry Hub. NGI chart compares Agua Dulce and Henry Hub daily natural gas spot prices from June to October 2026, showing Agua Dulce consistently trading at a discount. At a Glance:
Altamira restart still targeted this quarter
Agua Dulce discount reaches 61 cents
Turbine lease expected to bolster liquidity

Excelerate’s Bahamas LNG Deal Expands Caribbean Reach as US Supply Grows - Excelerate Energy has secured an 11-year LNG supply agreement supporting a planned Bahamas hub, with initial deliveries expected next year through its Jamaica operations. At a Glance:

• Bahamas agreement anchors planned LNG hub
• US share of Caribbean supplies grows
• Jamaica platform supports initial 2027 deliveries

Q3 2026 Earnings Calls: Chevron Says Venezuela Production Could Double by 2031 | RBN Energy - Chevron is on track to reach roughly 300 Mb/d of gross Venezuelan crude oil production by year-end and double output from its three joint ventures there to about 600 Mb/d by 2031, the company said during its quarterly earnings call October 30. CEO Mike Wirth noted the importance of new fiscal terms and expanded acreage there, and said the development program would be self-funding and extend into the 2030s (see chart below), underpinned by the country’s vast resources. “Total costs are expected to be under $20/bbl, with competitive investment returns, and no major upgrades are needed, as infrastructure has been well-maintained,” Wirth said. “Chevron markets 100% of the crude from the three ventures, with the majority going to U.S. refineries, including Pascagoula and El Segundo, adding to domestic product supply.”Global Q3 production was nearly 4 MMboe/d, despite entitlement impacts and planned maintenance turnarounds, and U.S. upstream output stayed above 2 MMboe/d for the sixth consecutive quarter, which Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said was driving “significant efficiencies,” citing reductions in capex per barrel and drilling-and-completion expenses.Chevron also said it is working toward a final investment decision (FID) for its Project Kilby, a 2.67-GW, behind-the-meter power project in West Texas backed by a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft. Chevron said it is on track to have first power in 2028 and full energization in 2031, but that progress was dependent on permitting.

Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply -Ongoing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could shrink global LNG supply by 3% this year, the steepest annual decline on record, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).   IEA chart tracks global LNG final investment decisions by country from 2014 through October 2026, highlighting US dominance in new export capacity. At a Glance:
TTF prices surge 70% year/year
Asian LNG prices jump 80%
Global gas demand drops 1.5%

Natural Gas Storage in Europe Still Lagging, Creating Favorable Market for US LNG – Slightly colder forecasts for Europe and Northeast Asia offered modest support for LNG demand Monday, though a largely mild start to winter in both regions leaves weather playing a smaller role than Europe’s below-normal storage. NGI charts compare daily temperatures with historical norms in Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo over 365 days through Oct. 30, 2026.  At a Glance:
Europe outlook turns colder
Asia forecast adds heating demand
No Gulf tropical threat seen

European, Asian Natural Gas Prices Slide as Iran Talks Raise Hopes for LNG Relief - Global energy prices fell Monday amid ongoing negotiations to avert renewed fighting between Iran and the United States.NGI's North America LNG Export Flow Tracker shows US LNG feedgas deliveries at 18.44 million Dth Nov. 2, 2026, led by Sabine Pass and Plaquemines.  At a Glance:
Iran offers conditional Strait of Hormuz reopening
Global gas prices at highest since 2022
Freeport LNG disruptions constrain US exports

Russia's oil, gas revenues more than double to $11.9B in October - Russia's oil and natural gas revenues more than doubled in October from the previous month to 971.2 billion rubles ($11.9 billion), according to Finance Ministry data. The ministry's figures showed that revenues rose approximately 114.7% from September, when they stood at around $5.54 billion, compared with $5.2 billion in August. The increase came as energy prices surged amid disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies linked to the Iran war. Brent crude hovered around $115 a barrel in October, while Dutch TTF natural gas futures, Europe's benchmark, traded above €103 ($115.7) per megawatt-hour in late October. Disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global crude oil and liquefied natural gas trade, also added pressure to energy markets. According to the ministry, Russia collected approximately $13.76 billion in mineral extraction tax and $4.39 billion in additional income tax during October. Net oil and gas revenues totaled around $11.9 billion after payments to oil companies and other offsets. Despite the sharp monthly increase, Russia's oil and gas revenues declined 14.07% year-on-year in the January-October period to approximately $78.91 billion, according to the data. Meanwhile, government payments to oil companies under a mechanism designed to stabilize domestic fuel prices rose to approximately $5.08 billion in October from $3.74 billion in September. The mechanism provides compensation from the federal budget when export prices for petroleum products exceed domestic prices, helping maintain fuel supplies in the domestic market and limit price increases.

XRG Snaps Up Shell’s NWS Stake to Support Asia’s ‘Growing Demand’ --XRG, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s (ADNOC) investment arm, has agreed to purchase Shell’s interest in the North West Shelf (NWS) project in Western Australia for $1.45 billion.Map of Australia's LNG liquefaction facilities, including Gorgon, Pluto, Ichthys, Darwin, Wheatstone and Queensland Curtis, plus the Wallumbilla gas hub.  At a Glance:
Shell divesting 16.67% stake
Assets near growing Asia-Pacific demand
Shell still plans LNG growth

ADNOC Gas Inks TotalEnergies Deal as Global LNG Business Expands -An affiliate of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) has agreed to supply TotalEnergies with LNG for five years in a deal that expands its relationship with a major US LNG portfolio player and helps build a broader global natural gas business.At a Glance:

• TotalEnergies deal covers 5-year LNG supply
• US investments broaden ADNOC supply options
• Global platform targets greater shipping flexibility

ADNOC Announces Another SPA in Deal Spree Aimed at Building Global Natural Gas Business -Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) said Friday its investment arm, XRG, would sell India’s Gujarat Energy 4 Mt/y of LNG beginning in 2028. At a Glance:

• First LNG sale from XRG’s global portfolio
• 10-year term with Gujarat
• Prices linked to Henry Hub

PCG responds to oil spill off Mariveles, Bataan — About 25 liters of used oil spilled into the coastal waters of Mariveles, Bataan, on Thursday, November 5, spreading across 500 square meters before the Philippine Coast Guard contained it with booms, the PCG said on Friday, November 6. The PCG said it received a report of the spill at Sitio Naswe in Barangay Ipag at around 9:30 a.m. Thursday. Initial findings traced the oil to "washing activities," the PCG said, though the source remains subject to further verification. By 6:30 p.m., responders had packed 800 kilograms of oil-contaminated debris and spent absorbent materials into 40 sacks, which were placed in temporary storage at a secure site. For Thursday's cleanup, the PCG mobilized seven absorbent booms and 2,200 absorbent pads in coordination with the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office. Cleanup operations are scheduled to resume on Friday, the PCG said. Used oil is classified as hazardous waste under DENR rules implementing Republic Act 6969 or the Toxic Substances and Hazardous and Nuclear Wastes Control Act of 1990, which govern how such waste is stored, transported and disposed of. The spill reported yesterday is much smaller than the one from the tanker Terranova, which sank off neighboring Limay in July 2024 with 1.4 million liters of industrial fuel oil and left a slick the PCG measured at 12 to 14 kilometers long.

Singapore deploys oil spill response off Pulau Sebarok - The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has activated its oil spill response measures after detecting several patches of oil in waters off Pulau Sebarok, Pulau Semakau and Selat Pauh.The authority was alerted to an oil sighting off Pulau Sebarok at approximately 10.25 am on 1 November 2026. Subsequent surveillance confirmed several patches across the affected areas.No oil patches were detected near the West Coast, Sentosa, the Southern Islands or East Coast during the surveillance operation. The MPA has mobilised its oil spill response contractors and instructed terminals in the area to deploy their own response resources. Relevant agencies have also been alerted to take precautionary measures to protect shorelines if required.  Ships operating in the port have been asked to report any further sightings of oil. The authority confirmed that the incident has not affected navigational traffic or port operations. The MPA is continuing aerial surveillance and coordinating with government agencies and terminal operators to contain and clean up the oil. An investigation into the source of the spill is also underway.

UAE Planning Third Oil Pipeline To Bypass Hormuz Chokepoint Mess - The United Arab Emirates currently operates one crude export pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and announced earlier this year that it was building a second. A third pipeline is reportedly being planned to further expand crude capacity and reroute energy flows around Hormuz, reducing exposure to Iranian disruption and weakening Tehran's leverage over the critical maritime chokepoint. Bloomberg reported Wednesday morning that Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy giant, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., is weighing plans for a third pipeline from the UAE’s western coast to Fujairah on its eastern coast that could supply Asian customers and bypass Hormuz. "Adnoc has been telling some customers in Asia about the pipeline, other people familiar with the matter said. The plans haven’t been finalized and could still change, including the route, a number of the people said," the outlet reported. The new pipeline would build on the UAE's existing pipeline, which has operated since 2012 and stretches 252 miles from Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. That pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day, expandable to 1.8 million. Earlier this year, the UAE announced the West-East Pipeline, expected to begin operations in 2027 and double export capacity through Fujairah. Notably, Fujairah sits outside the Hormuz chokepoint, allowing tankers to load crude without entering the Persian Gulf. An ADNOC spokesperson responded to the outlet's request for comment: “We have advised Bloomberg that this report is not accurate and purely speculative.” Beyond the UAE, the biggest story of the year has been other US-allied Gulf countries expanding pipeline routes around Hormuz, including Saudi Arabia, while Kuwait is proposing new pipelines. Taken together, these projects could erode Iran's leverage over Gulf flows, which has also clearly carried into US politics, with a Democratic sweep in the midterms.

As high oil prices curb demand, fresh signs of glut appear - The global oil market is showing signs of a return to excess supply as demand drops due to high prices, analysts and traders said, despite the lack of a resolution to ‌the Iran war, which has disrupted exports from the Middle East since March. The market was widely expected at the start of 2026 to be in a surplus, but the outbreak of the Iran war in late February led to what the International Energy Agency called the world's biggest ever supply disruption and cut Middle East exports, overturning the surplus projections. Banks and government forecasters have cut global oil demand forecasts in 2026 in part due to high prices. As supplies recover, weak demand is helping the market to balance. Recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production from other countries and weak demand have pushed global ⁠supply above consumption once again, JP Morgan said in a report. "We estimate the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average of 1.3 million bpd," the bank said. Global crude oil imports in October rose above average 2025 levels, the bank said, while demand lags. The Iran war prompted the IEA to arrange a record release of oil from industrialised nations' strategic reserves, and has drawn down commercial inventories. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that global stocks did not decline in September to October after falling sizeably in the months following the start of the Iran war. Goldman Sachs estimates the global liquids market was broadly balanced in the September-October period, in contrast to the deficit in March Goldman Sachs estimates the global liquids market was broadly balanced in the September-October period, in contrast to the deficit in March Goldman sees the market as broadly balanced in the September-October period, compared to a deficit in March this year. A marginal surplus from last year, an uptick in production outside the Gulf, along with a decline in demand helped balance the market, the bank said. Both banks also pointed to an uptick of oil flows from the Middle East since the early months of the war. Oil shipments from the region edged lower in October from September's levels, which were the highest since the Iran war started. Two ship-tracking firms said the October figures could be revised upwards as more details on shipments emerge. Crude and condensate exports from the Gulf averaged 14 million bpd in October, or about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports averaged 3.1 million bpd, or just over half of normal volumes, ship-tracking firm Vortexa ⁠said. In a sign of a short-term surplus of supply in the physical market, the price curve of Brent swaps, called contracts for differences, has moved. The contract for delivery this week is trading below that for the following week and at the steepest discount since July, according to LSEG data. The prices of the second- and ⁠third-week contracts are also trading at a discount to the next week. This market structure is called contango and generally reflects a perception that supply for immediate delivery is ample.

Oil prices fall over 4% as US-Iran peace talks raise hopes of easing Middle East supply disruptions | Hindustan Times - Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday, November 2, as hopes of a possible peace deal between the United States and Iran reduced fears of further disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East. Investors reacted to reports of diplomatic talks between Iranian and Qatari officials aimed at ending the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Iranian negotiators have held talks with Qatari mediators to discuss ways to end the war involving the United States. The Iranian negotiators have now left the discussions, while a draft proposal is being circulated. Another meeting could take place to continue the discussions, an official familiar with the talks said on Monday. Oil market investors are watching the talks closely because any progress towards ending the conflict could help restore the flow of oil from the Middle East. "The new month brought with it renewed hopes of a breakthrough in the Iranian stalemate," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, according to Reuters. Brent crude futures dropped by $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 per barrel by 1020 GMT on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell by $4.41, or 4.2%, to $99.71 per barrel. Brent crude ended October at its highest level in six months. Prices had increased because investors feared that the conflict between the United States and Iran could become more serious after Tuesday's US midterm elections. These concerns had raised fears of further disruptions to oil supplies. Hopes of diplomatic progress and the absence of any major military escalation over the weekend have reduced some of the immediate pressure on oil prices. "Lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, have taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, according to Reuters. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that talks with Qatari mediators were continuing and making progress. He said the purpose of the discussions was to continue consultations with Qatar. Araqchi also said Tehran was prepared for "both defence and diplomacy", according to Reuters. The peace discussions come after a recent increase in attacks on oil tankers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is an important route for global oil shipments. Any disruption to shipping through the strait can affect the amount of oil reaching international markets and push prices higher. There are also signs that oil shipments from some major producers are increasing. Saudi Arabia exported more crude oil in October than in September, despite attacks by Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi forces on its energy infrastructure. Two out of three ship-tracking companies reported the increase. The Iran war has reduced global oil inventories. Nearly 1 billion barrels of oil have been taken out of worldwide stockpiles since the war disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This was disclosed by the chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company ADNOC, according to Reuters. Despite Monday's fall, some analysts believe oil prices could increase further because of continuing supply risks. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts on Sunday. The bank warned that Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 if oil production in the Gulf region remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. Goldman Sachs said further attacks on shipping, damage to oil infrastructure and continued fears of supply disruptions could increase oil prices. These risks could keep an additional premium in oil prices even if diplomatic talks continue, according to Reuters.

Oil Sinks 6% as Hormuz Diplomacy Gathers Momentum (DTN) -- Crude oil futures tumbled 6% Monday morning as talks between Iranian negotiators and Qatari mediators sparked hopes for a diplomatic deal to halt the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, easing immediate risk premiums across the energy complex. By 9:12 a.m. EST, NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery fell $6.58, or 6.34%, to $97.54 bbl. The session low was $97.12. ICE Brent for January delivery moved down $6.85, or 6.02%, to $106.58 bbl after an intraday bottom at $105.86. Both WTI and Brent ended October trading up 15% on Friday, their highest since July, on fears that military operations could re-escalate in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Despite Monday's selloff, major financial institutions warn that upside risk remains significant. Market participants noted that while talks continue in Doha, the underlying market remains tightly balanced due to depleted inventories and maritime security threats. "Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside," Goldman Sachs said in a note, raising its Brent forecast to $140 bbl by 2027 if Middle East production remained constrained by 3.5 million bpd below 2025 baseline levels. Among refined products, NYMEX ULSD for December delivery eased $0.1976, or 4.29%, to $4.4785 gallon. It fell to as low as $4.4264 earlier. RBOB for December retreated $0.1936, or 6.16%, to $2.9629 gallon. The bottom for the day was $2.9356. The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.275 points to 101.470 against a basket of currencies. The retreat in crude and product futures came as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed Sunday that Tehran remains engaged in consultations with Qatari intermediaries, emphasizing that Iran is fully prepared for "both defense and diplomacy" as discussions proceed. The diplomatic push follows an elevated concentration of attacks on commercial tankers attempting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, though regional trade flows have shown mixed signals. Ship-tracking data indicated that Saudi Arabia managed to increase crude export volumes in October relative to September, even as Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched repeated strikes against kingdom energy infrastructure. Global petroleum inventories have taken a severe hit since hostilities erupted in late February, with total commercial and strategic stocks draining by nearly 1 billion bbl as Strait of Hormuz transport bottlenecks persisted.

Oil drops 7% as Iran signals openness to peace talks  (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 7% on Monday as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials lifted hopes for an end ‌to the US-Israeli war with Iran and stabilization of Middle East crude supply. Brent crude futures settled $8.66, or 7.63%, lower to $104.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down $7.66, or 7.36%, at $96.46. The session low for Brent was $103.28 and for WTI it was $95.15, with some analysts citing hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government certain authorities for peace talks. Pezeshkian added Tehran "will try to resolve the problem with dialogue", without elaborating, according to ⁠state media. The country's negotiators held days of talks with Qatari mediators aimed at ending the war. Brent ended October at its highest in six months on concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate again after Tuesday's US midterm elections. US President Donald Trump on Monday said that Iran wants to make a deal to end the war and that such an agreement "could happen." On Monday evening, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on a potential US-Iran deal. Signs of progress in US-Iran talks pushed oil prices lower, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said, noting, however, that skepticism is warranted after many "false dawns” over the past several months. Brent ended October at its highest in six months on concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate again after Tuesday's US midterm elections. "The oil market is ‌still ⁠reacting with extreme sensitivity to every headline out of the Middle East," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "While fears of an imminent escalation pushed prices up last week, they have dropped sharply at the start of this week as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran continue," he added. The talks followed a recent increase in attacks on oil tankers passing the Strait of Hormuz, though there have also been signs of shipments rising from some ⁠major exporters. Saudi Arabia's crude exports increased in October from September, two of three ship-tracking companies said, despite attacks by Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis on its energy infrastructure. The outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February has depleted oil stocks. The world has drained nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories since ⁠the war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, said Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of ADNOC, Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company. Oil could rise further, some analysts said. Goldman Sachs on Sunday, citing elevated supply, and said Brent could jump to $140 in 2027 if Gulf ⁠oil output remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. "Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside," the bank said in a report.

Oil Prices Rise After Reports of Explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island - Oil prices climbed by more than 1.5 percent early on Nov. 3 after reports of explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose by $1.84, or 1.76 percent, to $106.61 a barrel by 2:44 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.60, or 1.66 percent, to $98.06. Earlier on Nov. 2, Iranian state media IRNA reported several explosions on Qeshm ‌Island, the biggest island in the Persian Gulf. U.S. President Donald Trump on Nov. 3 confirmed U.S. strikes on an Iranian anti-aircraft facility on the night of Nov. 2. Speaking to Fox News’s “Fox & Friends,” Trump said the U.S. military hit the facility shortly after its completion. “They have no airplanes. They have no anti-aircraft. We took some out last night. It’s just a minor attack. It wasn’t war,” Trump said. “They built an anti-aircraft facility. It took them about two months. We watched it get built, as soon as it was completed, we hit it last night very nicely.” Asked about the reported explosions on Qeshm Island, a U.S. official told The Epoch Times that Trump “has all options available at any time.” “The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing. President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States,” the U.S. official said. Oil prices rebounded after a sharp sell-off on Nov. 2. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate declined by 7.24 percent to $96.58 at 12:28 p.m. ET on Nov. 2. Global Brent prices also fell by 7.49 percent to about $104.93 a barrel in overseas trading. On Nov. 2, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social that oil prices were “dropping like a rock” because markets believed that war with Iran could be avoided. “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!” he wrote. Over the weekend, Trump said that negotiations with Iran were going fine and that he was not “in much of a hurry” to reach an agreement, while maintaining that military action remained an option after the U.S. midterm elections. Trump also said Washington still needed to address one or two remaining Iranian nuclear sites, including the suspected underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain. Iranian officials said on Nov. 2 that indirect diplomatic contacts with the United States were continuing but described the issues under discussion as highly complicated. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless Washington lifted the naval blockade imposed in July. Maritime security risks remain high in the Strait of Hormuz despite a modest recovery in shipping activity. On Nov. 1, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said it had received a report that a vessel had been struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz after another ship relayed a mayday call. UKMTO advised vessels to transit with caution while authorities investigated. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, vessel traffic through the Strait reached its highest monthly level since July in October, supported by stronger liquefied natural gas and dry-bulk movements despite lower crude tanker volumes. The Nov. 2 report said the operating environment had become increasingly volatile, citing reported projectile strikes, vessel fires, and other security incidents throughout October. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said there had been about 30 attacks during the month—among the highest monthly totals recorded. While Iranian aerial attacks continued to pose risks to shipping, Dominguez warned that uncertainty over the possible presence of naval mines remained a major concern. “I cannot guarantee that it’s safe,” he told reporters on Nov. 2. “That’s why we are not recommending anyone to go through the Strait of Hormuz.” Despite the heightened security environment, S&P Global data showed total observed and estimated vessel transits through Hormuz edged up to 750 in October from 749 in September, although very large crude carrier movements declined to 156 from 184 during the same period.

Oil prices fluctuate after US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island --Oil prices dropped on Tuesday evening following a sharp rise in the morning after reports of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island revived concerns about an escalation of the conflict and further disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 1.72 per cent lower at $102.97 a barrel at 6:16pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.03 per cent to 95.47 a barrel. Both benchmarks rose sharply earlier in the day, with Brent reaching nearly $107 a barrel. The gains followed a sharp slide on Monday, when both Brent and WTI plunged more than 7 per cent. US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday night, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The WSJ cited US officials, who described the attacks as defensive measures aimed at preventing Iran from targeting commercial vessels in the strait. Iranian state media said there were several explosions on the island, which is at the mouth of Hormuz. It was the latest in a series of limited attacks carried out by the US in recent weeks, the WSJ report said. Smaller scale strikes have been carried out and kept secret to avoid indicating any US intent to resume its major military campaign against Iran, the report added. “Overnight US strikes renewed uncertainty, leaving crude near $105 per barrel this morning and the diplomatic opening vulnerable,” said Daniel Richards, senior economist at Emirates NBD. The latest military action comes as the US goes to the polls on Tuesday for midterm elections. It also puts the focus back on the risk of supply disruption, a day after US President Donald Trump reportedly said he wanted to give diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed military strikes. “For oil, the decisive question will be whether the midterm elections can align the political pieces to pave the way for more normal supply conditions – or push that prospect further away,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “The clearest downside scenario for crude is credible de-escalation of geopolitical tensions followed by improving supply flows. The clearest upside scenario is renewed disruption while inventories continue absorbing the shortfall.” While the US midterms could change expectations rapidly, “they cannot, by themselves, reopen shipping routes, repair damaged infrastructure or reverse the AI impact on broader economies”, she added. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route connecting the Gulf to global markets, carried about a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas supplies before the conflict began in late February. Oil prices hit a six-month high at the end of October on Hormuz strikes and the probability of the conflict escalating again after the midterm elections. "Energy prices have been at lofty levels for a while, at least from our perspective. Oil trading above $100 and European natural gas above €90 is difficult to reconcile with current market realities," said Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer. "We are in an extraordinarily noisy week due to the midterms, and in a phase where the complex energy supply chains are normalising. Given this setting, today’s exceptional market fever and wild price swings should not come as a surprise. We maintain our cautious view on oil."

Oil Dips in Volatile Trade Amid US Election Jitters (DTN) -- Crude oil futures fell again Tuesday, reversing early gains, as caution over the outcome of the U.S. midterm election offset fresh geopolitical tensions in the Gulf after a U.S. military strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Refined product prices, however, rebounded on concerns over tighter supplies. With the ruling Republican party's majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate at stake, energy traders were rethinking their exposure to crude futures on concerns over post-election policy shifts, military developments and potential changes in foreign policy strategy regarding Iran, analysts said. By 9:04 a.m. EST, NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery fell $1.38, or 1.46%, to $95.08 bbl. The session high was $98.82. ICE Brent for January delivery moved down $2.22, or 2.17%, to $102.55 bbl. It reached as high as $107.24 earlier in the day. Market anxiety had spiked earlier in the session after reports indicated the U.S. carried out a targeted strike on Qeshm Island -- a strategic landmass situated directly in the Strait of Hormuz -- as part of ongoing limited military actions in the region. Conflicting geopolitical cues persist around the Gulf as U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he did not plan a post-election strike. Meanwhile, Israel -- which joined Washington in an intensive bombing campaign of Iran earlier this year -- advocates for more decisive action against Tehran. The latest U.S. attack, while muted, also raised questions about Iran's response in a war that seemed to be waning just a day ago after Iranian officials signaled willingness to reopen unhindered commercial transit through the Hormuz. That speculation had led to a 7% selloff in WTI and Brent Monday, Nov. 2, driving refined product prices down too. In Tuesday's downstream trade on NYMEX, ULSD for December delivery climbed $0.0390, or 0.99%, to $4.4606 gallon. It peaked at $4.6010 during the session. RBOB for December advanced $0.0095, or 0.35%, to $2.9096 gallon. The high for the morning was $2.9831. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.066 points to 101.690 against a basket of currencies.

Oil Prices Fall as Market Weighs Renewed Middle East Supply Fears - The oil market sold off further on Tuesday after the market weighed renewed supply fears after the U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island late Monday against a statement made by President Donald Trump regarding U.S. military support for Israel. The crude market rebounded in overnight trading in light of the news that the U.S. struck Qeshm Island in a “defensive” strike. The market was also supported after an Iranian official said that Iran and the U.S. remained far from reaching a deal to end their war amid continuing efforts to narrow remaining gaps. The oil market traded to a high of $98.82 in early morning trading. However, the market quickly erased its gains and sold off to a low of $93.59 by mid-morning after President Trump said that the U.S. was ending billions of dollars of annual military support to Israel. The market later consolidated its trading ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled down 37 cents at $96.09 and the January Brent contract settled down $1.17 at $103.60. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.09 cents at $4.5306 and the RB market settling up 3.54 cents at $2.9355. According to ship-tracking data, Gulf oil exports fell in October from September’s levels, which were the highest level since the Iran war started. Vortexa data showed that flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million bpd in October. That marks a decline from 18.9 million bpd in September but still represents roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, Kpler data showed a drop in shipments, with crude and condensate flows down about 1 million bpd from September. Bloomberg reported that Middle East oil market metrics are indicating that near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July, when global prices fell after a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. It said the nearest time spread for the Dubai benchmark, which helps set pricing for almost all the crude exported from the region, was in a bearish contango structure at the start of the week. Barclays maintained its Brent price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and said oil markets may be underestimating upside price risks as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks shows little evidence of a significant diplomatic breakthrough. The bank maintained its Brent crude forecasts at $100/barrel for 2026 and $85/barrel for 2027, signaling confidence that fundamentals remain supportive despite recent volatility. Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, said the company will maximize oil production this quarter as it looks to keep increasing shipments from the near-prewar levels seen in October. He said Aramco is exploring the expansion of a crude pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz. He said that Aramco was exploring additional export routes and overseas storage capacity, including a potential expansion of the East-West Pipeline that carries Saudi crude to export hubs on the Red Sea. The pipeline, which has been attacked several times throughout the U.S.-Iran war, has the capacity to carry up to 7 million bpd of oil.

Goldman Raises Oil Price Forecast for December as War Risks Cloud 2027 Outlook - --Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for December and 2027, warning that Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts threaten global supplies and make it hard to predict a lasting easing of energy market tensions. The investment bank now expects Brent crude, the international benchmark, to reach $105 a barrel in December, up from its previous forecast of $90. It also raised its December forecast for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, to $94 a barrel. The revisions reflect growing concern that geopolitical instability will keep oil markets exposed to interruptions. For 2027, Goldman lifted its average Brent forecast to $88 a barrel from $80, a 10% increase. Its WTI forecast rose to $78 from $73, an increase of approximately 6.8%. The central reason for the higher estimates is a change in how Goldman accounts for potential supply losses. Rather than assuming that oil production and deliveries will proceed without significant interruptions, the bank has incorporated a disruption allowance into its main forecast. "The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk," Goldman said in a note led by strategist Daan Struyven. "With the timing and location of disruptions nearly impossible to predict, our base case now includes a 1mb/d global supply disruption allowance in 2027," the bank added. That allowance represents 1 million barrels a day. It is an assumption built into Goldman's outlook, rather than a prediction that a particular producer will lose that amount of supply on a specific date. That way, Goldman does not need to identify the next disruption precisely to conclude that the overall risk warrants higher price forecasts. Several unresolved conflicts can increase the possibility of supply losses, even when the nature of any individual interruption remains uncertain. The revised outlook also reflects a higher geopolitical risk premium, according to the note. Traders are assigning greater weight to the possibility that diplomatic efforts will struggle to produce a durable breakthrough. In oil markets, a risk premium means prices can reflect the threat of future shortages before those shortages materialize. Buyers and sellers factor potential disruptions into their decisions, alongside available supply and expected demand. Consequently, expectations about negotiations and military developments can influence prices even without an immediate change in production. Goldman's December Brent revision is particularly large, with a $15 increase, or approximately 16.7%, from its previous estimate. That adjustment signals a more expensive near-term outlook than the bank had previously anticipated. However, the forecasts still point to lower average prices next year than Goldman expects in December. Its $88 Brent estimate for 2027 sits $17 below its December projection, while the $78 WTI forecast is $16 lower.

Oil prices dip slightly amid anticipation of US election results and regional talks -– Oil prices dipped slightly in early trading on Wednesday as investors awaited the results of the U.S. midterm congressional elections and their potential implications for Middle East peace talks. This occurred despite a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures fell by 26 cents, or 0.25%, to $103.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 53 cents, or 0.55%, to $95.56 per barrel.   Markets are closely monitoring developments in negotiations aimed at ending the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, amid persistent mediation efforts by Qatar to bridge the gaps between the parties. Meanwhile, an Iranian official has stated that Tehran and Washington remain far from reaching a final agreement that would resolve the ongoing conflict and ensure stable energy flows. Separately, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decline in crude oil inventories by approximately 5.27 million barrels for the week ending October 30, reflecting sustained strong demand within the domestic market. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories rose by approximately 1.43 million barrels, while stocks of distillates—including diesel—fell by about 1.19 million barrels. This highlights the divergence in consumption rates across various petroleum products. A sense of anticipation persists in global energy markets, as traders weigh the pressures of political uncertainty—stemming from the U.S. congressional elections and geopolitical developments in the Middle East—against the decline in U.S. inventories, which provides support to prices and helps curb any sharp downturns.

Oil prices slide as Trump's midterm defeat rattles markets and sends dollar lower - The US dollar and global oil prices weakened on Wednesday as markets reacted to a heavy midterm election defeat for President Donald Trump, with the Democrats taking control of Congress. Democrats seized control of both houses in a landslide victory that gives them the power to block legislation, launch investigations into Trump's administration and thwart his judicial and senior government appointments. “Investors are trying to get their heads around what a Democrat landslide means for financial markets,” noted Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “The big risk is uncertainty around how Trump could act in the coming months following such a result.” Oil prices moved lower on Wednesday, with Brent North Sea crude falling 1.2% to $102.36 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping 0.8% to $95.42. The declines came as investors assessed the implications of the Democrats' midterm election victory for US policy and the potential for political gridlock under President Donald Trump. The dollar sank against other major currencies amid fears that the election outcome could lead to political gridlock in the US, after Trump warned that he would become “Mr Veto”. Technology firms also slumped amid suggestions that Democrats could prioritise AI regulation. But European stock markets posted gains in Wednesday morning trading. London, Frankfurt and Paris all rose by more than 1% as investors brushed off official data showing eurozone inflation reaching a three-year high of 4.0%. This followed a largely solid performance by equities across Asia, although Tokyo ended lower as its technology sector struggled. Tens of millions of Americans voted in the crucial midterm elections, which were widely seen as a referendum on the White House, amid growing anger over soaring petrol prices, the impact of tariffs and the Iran war. Chris Weston, an analyst at broker Pepperstone, stressed that Trump retained “considerable executive authority”, meaning the possible impact of the election result was “far from straightforward”. Bond yields avoided the volatility seen recently, while gold benefited from its status as a safe-haven investment. Aside from the US election, investors continued to monitor third-quarter earnings. BMW said on Wednesday it would step up planned job cuts after reporting a drop in third-quarter profit, hit by cutthroat competition and falling demand in China, the world's largest car market. Google, meanwhile, said it planned to invest $15 billion in Malaysia over the next two years to build data centres and other infrastructure.

US Diesel Supplies Slump To 23-Year Lows; Oil Prices Lower After Trump's Comments, SPR Drain - Oil prices extended losses this morning as investors weighed the Democratic sweep of Congress in the Midterms and what it means for President Trump's approach to Iran, amid uncertainty over whether Washington will pursue diplomacy or renew military strikes. Specifically, the results could introduce additional constraints on Trump's agenda, particularly around funding overseas military operations and other foreign policy commitments. Additionally, Qatar said Tuesday that mediation between Washington and Tehran was continuing, with both sides reviewing proposals exchanged through intermediaries, and for now, Trump said he had no immediate plans for launching more strikes on Iran. “We’re locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. But for now, all eyes are on the inventory and supply data... DOE

• Crude -865k
• Cushing +280k
• Gasoline -222k
• Distillates -3.565mm

Crude stocks fell for the fifth straight week while Distillates inventories plunged... Diesel supplies plunged back below 100mm barrels for the first time since 2003... The draw in commercial crude stockpiles was boosted by another 399,000 barrels withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That increased the overall nationwide crude draw to 1.26 million barrels in the week to Oct. 30. A total of 133 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs. Crude production edged up last week to top 14 million barrels a day for the first time in weekly data going back to 1983. The small increase came as the number of rigs drilling for oil rose again, with two units put into operation, according to Baker Hughes. The company’s estimate of active US oil rigs stood at 462 on Friday. WTI is off the lows of the day but still down notably overnight... Finally, for oil traders, the more immediate question is whether Washington will pursue a diplomatic agreement with Tehran or launch another round of military strikes. “The next 72 hours will be critical for determining whether the recent renewed diplomatic momentum translates into genuine improvement in energy market chaos, or if it is simply another short-lived correction,” said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered. “The election doesn’t guarantee de-escalation.” ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said the market has increasingly priced in the risk of further hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. If the elections pass without a fresh military escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough, traders will have to assess whether the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices can be sustained or is likely to unwind, they said. “The big question now is what lies ahead on the foreign policy front and specifically the Middle East crisis,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS. “The market seems to be betting Trump wants to put it behind him, raising the prospect for some sort of deal.”

Oil prices fall on Vance's post-midterms Iran war repudiation - Oil prices extended their sharp selloff on Wednesday as fears that President Donald Trump would launch fresh military strikes on Iran eased a day after Republicans were dealt a sharp defeat in the midterm elections.Trump has previewed for weeks that he may try to “finish the job” with another round of strikes on Iran. But the scale of the GOP losses has turned even Vice President JD Vance against the idea as voters delivered a sharp repudiation of the war’s impact on prices at the pump.The U.S. benchmark oil price slipped $6 a barrel on Wednesday after Vance blamed the administration’s war for its losses at the ballot box, bringing the decline to more than $16 since last Thursday. Still, the sharp selloff came too late to help Republicans, who lost their control of the House and Senate Tuesday in an election that focused heavily on cost of living issues.“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance posted on X Wednesday morning. He also praised Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy for advocating a “diplomatic resolution to the conflict.”A round of promising negotiations in the Middle East earlier this week initiated the pullback in oil prices, with both Iranian and U.S. officials playing up the prospects of a deal. The situation remains highly volatile, however, as the U.S. conducted limited strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as Monday.The Treasury Department also announced new sanctions Wednesday on Indian and Turkish entities it said were continuing to support Iran.“As we have said many times, under Operation Economic Outcast, you are either with us or against us,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “We know where you are, and we will sanction those who continue supporting the Iranian regime, whether by land, sea, or air.”Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Trump said that high oil prices were probably the “primary reason” for Republicans’ midterm losses, but defended his decision to attack Iran.“If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again because long term, it’s the only answer — you can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” he said, adding that there is “tremendous oil” flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz.In an interview with POLITICO late Tuesday, Trump left the door open to further strikes. “We’re going to take a look, and if we see any opportunity to do one thing or another, we’ll do it,” he said.A renewed military campaign against Iran would come as the supply buffers that have kept a relative lid on oil prices are eroding. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. diesel inventories fell by another 3.6 million barrels last week and are 13 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at the consultancy Rystad Energy, said in a research note that the Democratic sweep “changes the political cost of continuing the Iran war.”“With both chambers now capable of passing resolutions, holding back war funding and delaying confirmations, the administration faces a shorter political runway and greater institutional pressure to find a Hormuz deal,” Galimberti said.

Oil slumps after midterm election rebuke to Trump raises bets on Iran war exit (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 8% to settle at their lowest in more than two months on Wednesday after President Donald Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in midterm elections, as investors bet ‌that the shift in power could hasten the end of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Brent futures settled $8.98, or 8.7% lower, at $94.62 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $7.97, or 8.3%, to $88.12. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest since Aug 31. Trump now faces a choice between a negotiated exit and a riskier escalation. A weakened Trump, facing a Democratic Congress able to constrain his military options, has greater incentive to seek a deal, said two sources close to Gulf government circles. A full-scale assault on Iran now looks less likely, they said. Yet an agreement that allows Iran to claim clear ⁠victory and leaves Trump looking defeated can provoke recklessness as readily as restraint, Gulf analysts said. Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran, and on Wednesday acknowledged that the Iran war had played a role in his party's sweeping defeat in the midterm elections, as Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. "The Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at US financial services firm BOK Financial. He said that larger crude oil exports out of the Middle East, and Trump's comments that he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, is adding to pressure on crude prices. US Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from the decision to go to war on Wednesday, questioning its worth and blaming it entirely for a stinging electoral rebuke by voters ‌that delivered ⁠control of Congress to Democrats. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility would persist regardless of which party was in power. Yemen's Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. There was no confirmation from Saudi authorities. Qatar stepped up mediation efforts to avert a renewed escalation of attacks after the US elections. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end their war. "The elections are giving bears a ⁠reason to cast doubt on a continuation in Iran ... I'm more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution," said Carl Larry, who leads the trading and North America risk team at Enverus. Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to ship tracking data ⁠from Vortexa, down from 18.9 million bpd in September but still roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. The United Arab Emirates is considering building a third oil pipeline that would deliver crude outside the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, as the country aims to sharply reduce its dependence on the waterway. In ⁠the US, crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended October 30, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 877,000-barrel rise.

Oil Prices Slide for Fourth Straight Day as Democratic Midterm Sweep Fuels Bets on Diplomatic End to Iran War — Oil prices fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday, extending a steep selloff as traders bet that Democrats' sweeping midterm victories will increase pressure on President Donald Trump to wind down the U.S. war with Iran. Brent futures fell 97 cents, or 1.03%, to $93.65 a barrel as of 0211 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.14, or 1.29%, to $86.98. The decline followed a dramatic drop on Wednesday. Both benchmarks tumbled by more than 8% in the previous session to settle at their lowest since Aug. 31. WTI posted its biggest loss since May. Traders linked the selloff directly to the political shift in Washington. Prices fell on expectations that the losses Trump's Republican Party suffered in congressional elections may reduce the risk of further escalation of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The White House itself connected the war to the election results. Markets increasingly priced in an end to the Iran war after the White House linked Republicans' midterm losses to the conflict, with Washington and Tehran signaling openness to negotiations. Trump told reporters that Iran wants "to make a deal and that could happen." Trump and Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican Party's electoral setback, as rising living costs linked to the conflict reportedly contributed to voter dissatisfaction. A Democratic Congress could also restrict war funding. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said the new balance of power could tighten U.S. military spending in the Middle East and "further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner rather than later." The decline marks a striking turnaround. Brent had traded near $118 last Friday before the downturn. Energy traders, who had built geopolitical risk premiums into prices through October, quickly unwound speculative long positions, pushing crude down by more than 14% across the week. Supply data also weighed on prices. JPMorgan estimates the oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. The drop was welcomed by oil-importing economies. Indian stock benchmarks surged in early trade Thursday amid the sharp decline in crude prices and hopes for a resolution to the conflict. Geojit Investments strategist V.K. Vijayakumar said the sharp fall in Brent was the strongest positive for the market. Not all analysts expect prices to stay low. Asked whether prices were likely to remain lower after the election, Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of energy consultancy XAnalysts, said, "The short answer is no." Risks to supply remain in the region. Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, roughly three-quarters of prewar levels, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said U.S. hostility would persist regardless of which party is in power. Some forecasters still see elevated prices ahead. Trading Economics models expect Brent to trade at $116.80 a barrel by the end of the quarter. Investors will watch for any formal talks between Washington and Tehran, as well as weekly U.S. inventory data, for further direction.

Oil Up on Market Risks Despite US Congressional Shifts (DTN) -- Crude futures rebounded Thursday after falling its most in seven months in the prior session as energy traders responded to the likelihood of oil supplies remaining vulnerable despite potential changes to the trajectory of the Iran war from this week's U.S. midterm elections. By 9:15 a.m. EST, NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery rose $1.27, or 1.53%, to $89.39 bbl. WTI hit a four-week low of $87.13 on Wednesday, Nov. 4, falling 8% for its largest one-day decline since April. ICE Brent for January delivery climbed $2.38, or 2.63%, to $97 bbl, after also losing around 8% in the prior session. Downstream, ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for December delivery rebounded $0.0880, or 2.13%, to $4.2935 gallon. RBOB for December delivery advanced by $0.0351, or 1.33%, to $2.7637 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.065 points to 101.490 against a basket of foreign currencies. Wednesday's selloff across energy futures came as control of Congress flipped to Democrats in Tuesday's, Nov. 3, midterm elections. When Democratic lawmakers take charge in January, they plan to invoke the War Powers Resolution to constrain U.S. President Donald Trump's war against Iran. Notwithstanding the Democrats' plans, some market analysis suggested that upside risks to crude prices had barely changed. Eurasia Group raised the likelihood of a prolonged Iran war to 30% from 15%, citing Tehran's firm negotiating stance and Washington's reluctance to accept terms perceived as a defeat. In such circumstances, any escalation in hostilities could drive Brent back towards the $110-$125 bbl range, it said. Citigroup cautioned that the White House may lean heavily on executive foreign policy powers, increasing the potential for renewed escalation with Iran. JPMorgan reported that the uptick in Gulf oil shipments over the past two months had pushed global supply back into a surplus of 1.1 million bpd in September and 1.4 million bpd in October.

Brent crude jumps, settles up over $3 after tanker attacks (Reuters) - Brent crude futures settled over $3 a barrel higher on Thursday as new attacks on tankers fed worries about oil supplies while investors reassessed the outlook for the US-Israeli war with Iran. Brent finished up $3.67, or 3.88% at $98.29 ‌a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed $2.40, or 2.72% higher at $90.52 a barrel. This marked a reversal from Wednesday, when both benchmarks ‌tumbled more than 8% to their lowest settlement levels since August 31. "Today's rebound reflects caution about pricing in a rapid normalization of oil flows before diplomatic progress translates into dependable shipping and deliveries," Gelber and Associates wrote in a note on Thursday. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said reports of tankers striking mines in the Middle East or being targeted by drones continue to worry the oil market. Investors are also worried about Iran's unchanged position regarding negotiations with the US. Attacks on tankers in the Gulf are still running close to a record pace with at least five vessels having reported incidents since Sunday, according to UK maritime ‌security agency UKMTO. The pace was similar to October ⁠when the agency said 35 vessels were hit, the most in any month of the war. The war with Iran, which US President Donald Trump launched along with Israel in February, resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which became ⁠major grievances for voters. Democrats took control of both houses of the US Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, routing Trump's Republican Party. The new Democratic-controlled Congress takes office in January. Citi said in a note there were concerns that with the midterms over, the White House could focus on its executive powers in foreign policy and potentially escalate the war with Iran. Eurasia Group, however, lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed US strikes on Iran to 60% ‌from 65%. It also cut the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%, as Iran has held firm on demands that Trump is viewed as unlikely to accept. Eurasia Group raised the likelihood of a continued standoff to 30% from 15%. Despite the recent drop in oil prices, any escalation in the conflict could push Brent into a $110 to $125 per barrel range, Eurasia Group said in a note. Meanwhile, the Iranian foreign ministry said Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi discussed the "latest progress" in diplomatic efforts to promote regional stability in separate calls with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest ‌oil exporter, issued alerts on Thursday warning of potential danger in Yanbu, its Red Sea oil export hub, as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis continued attacks on the kingdom in another front of the Iran war. The Houthis later said they attacked King Fahd airport in the Saudi city of Dammam. There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi authorities. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ‌Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to use unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, Ukraine renewed attacks on Russian oil refineries, raising concerns about Russia's ability to export diesel under a deal with Trump. The Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, appeared to have been targeted in a large overnight drone attack on industrial sites southeast of Moscow, according to a Reuters ‌video analysis. If confirmed, it would be the second Russian refinery hit this week, following an attack on the Yaroslavl plant on Monday night.

Oil prices edge higher, but weekly losses near 12% - Bangladesh Post- Global oil prices edged higher on Friday, but were on track for a weekly decline of nearly 12% amid growing hopes that the war involving Iran could ease. Market sentiment has been influenced by expectations that tensions surrounding the conflict may subside after US President Donald Trump's party suffered losses in the elections. These expectations have put downward pressure on oil prices. However, concerns that the conflict could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East have provided some support to prices. At 02:22 GMT on Friday (November 6), Brent crude futures for January delivery, the international benchmark, rose by $1.57, or 1.6%, to $99.86 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $1.10, or 1.2%, to $91.62 per barrel. The future of the Iran war and the security of energy supplies from the Middle East remain key factors shaping the oil market. As a result, despite Friday's modest recovery, oil prices remained on track for a substantial weekly decline.

Brent oil prices set for biggest weekly drop since 2020 -- Oil prices were set for a sharp weekly fall after the election losses of US President Donald Trump's Republican Party raised hopes of a de-escalation in the US-Israeli war on Iran and a stock market sell-off. But attacks on vessels in the Middle East continue to provide a floor to crude. In a whiplash see-saw session today, Brent crude futures for January were up 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $98.55 a barrel this afternoon. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose by 57 cents, or 0.6%, to $91.09. The Brent contract is on track for a 16% decline this week, which would be its steepest weekly percentage fall since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and its biggest in absolute terms in LSEG data going back to 1988. WTI is set for a 13% decline. The oil price slide comes against the backdrop of a dramatic rout in technology stocks. A potential Iran war de-escalation could lead to more crude exports out of the region. Signs of an emerging supply excess amid demand destruction were reinforced by spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude benchmarks returning to levels reached before the conflict. "The crude market is loosening to a state of oversupply based on the balance, but the quality difference still exists as refiners recover what they can take versus what is available," said Rystad oil market analyst Janiv Shah, pointing to longer voyages and the need for ship-to-ship transfers as workarounds near Hormuz. "The market is still looking for evidence of a firm deal being signed (on Iran), or any backlash from either party could tighten fundamentals once more," the analyst said. Oil prices fell 8% on Wednesday alone after the Democrats swept the US midterm elections, settling at two-month lows. However, prices rebounded on a surge in tanker attacks in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns over supply flows from the region. A Greek ship manager said today that a seafarer was killed in a November 5 explosion on an oil products tanker in the Gulf, believed to have been caused by a missile attack. Data from Britain's maritime security agency UKMTO suggested that attacks on oil-carrying ships are still running at close to record pace. "Oil doesn't have to be at $117 to be expensive, and a fall to $93 doesn't mean the underlying problems have disappeared," said Matt Stanley from tanker trackers and energy flow analysts Kpler. "After over 25 years in this business, I honestly can't recall many weeks quite like this one," he added.

Crude gains on worries about renewed US attacks on Iran - (Reuters) - Crude futures edged up late on Friday on renewed fears of further US strikes on Iran as US President Donald Trump said he would soon decide ‌whether to pursue a peace agreement or destroy what remains of Iran. Brent crude futures for January settled ‌at $98.32 a barrel, up 3 cents, or 0.03%. US West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $90.83 a barrel, up 31 cents, or 0.34%. The Brent contract is on track for a 17% decline this week, which would be its steepest weekly percentage fall since the start of the COVID pandemic and its biggest in absolute terms, according to LSEG data dating back to 1988. "A bit of unwinding of the war premium seems to be what's going on," said Phil Flynn, ‌senior analyst with Price Futures Group. While the ⁠US midterm results raised hopes of a potential Iran war de-escalation and more crude exports out of the region, they also raised expectations of tighter US regulations for the AI ⁠industry, prompting a dramatic rout in technology stocks on Thursday. [MKTS/GLOB] In oil markets, signs of an emerging supply excess amid demand destruction were reinforced by spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude benchmarks returning to levels reached before the conflict. "The crude market is loosening to a state of oversupply based on the balance, but the quality difference still exists as refiners recover what ‌they can take versus what is available," said Rystad oil market analyst Janiv Shah, pointing to longer shipping routes and the need for ship-to-ship transfers as workarounds near the Strait of Hormuz. "The market is still looking for evidence of a firm deal being signed (on Iran), or any backlash from either party could tighten fundamentals once more." Also affecting futures was the strong jobs report issued by the US Department of Labor on Friday, showing an increase of 165,000 ‌jobs last month. "We're worried about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the jobs report this morning," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. Oil prices fell 8% on Wednesday alone after the Democrats swept the US midterm elections, settling at two-month lows. However, prices rebounded on a ‌surge in tanker attacks in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns over supply flows from the region. A Greek ship manager said on Friday that a seafarer was killed in a November 5 explosion on an oil products tanker in the Gulf, believed to have been caused by a missile attack. Data from Britain's ‌maritime security agency UKMTO suggested that attacks on oil-carrying ships are still running at close to a record pace.

Shipping traffic remains 70% below pre-war levels in Strait of Hormuz, report says  - Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains 70 percent below the levels recorded before the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to a weekly assessment by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The UKMTO released its weekly report on Friday, stating that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained approximately 70 percent below pre-war levels, with 277 vessel movements recorded in the seven days leading up to October 28. The strait remains under the control of Iranian forces, and vessels attempting to pass through the strategic waterway illegally risk coming under attack. Ships seeking to use unauthorized routes will also face the risk of naval mines. Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian Armed Forces have closed the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the strategic chokepoint illegally would face attacks. On June 17, Iran and the US reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU), with Pakistan playing a mediating role. Under Article 5 of the MoU, Iran undertook responsibility for reopening and managing the strait. However, the US sought to undermine Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz by imposing a naval blockade in violation of the deal to end the war. The move prompted Iran to close off the strait indefinitely. According to UKMTO data, at least 35 attacks on shipping were reported in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz in October, making it the month with the highest number of attacks since the start of the war. The figure surpassed March’s total of 30 attacks. The UKMTO warned that its figures on attacks against vessels may not reflect the actual number of incidents, as many targeted vessels do not report attacks to the agency, so the numbers may be even higher. US President Donald Trump claims that the US Navy has removed or detonated all naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, urging vessels to use the route and repeatedly claiming that the strait is open and safe. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) officials, however, have repeatedly said that using the unauthorized routes proposed by the US is unsafe. They have also warned that vessel owners and crews would be held responsible for any attempt to use these routes in defiance of Iranian warnings. In a statement on Friday, the IRGC Navy said two tankers that attempted to cross the waterway through an unauthorized route were stopped following separate incidents. The IRGC Navy also said that a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of oil struck a naval mine while attempting to pass through an unauthorized route.

People scour strait of Hormuz for spilt cargo after Iran attacks container ships | Strait of Hormuz | The Guardian -People have been scouring the strait of Hormuz for spilt cargo after Iran attacked at least 15 container ships passing through the crucial waterway in the past 10 days. Some ships have been hit by drones, others by mines. On Sunday, a ship was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade launched from a small boat 75 miles (120km) north-east of the Saudi port of Jubail. The rise in Iranian attacksappears to have helped resolidify Tehran’s disputed control over the strait, as well as pushing the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil close to $108 a barrel on Monday morning. Last Wednesday a ship travelling from Karachi, Pakistan, to Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, sunk after hitting a mine, according to Iranian state TV. All 21 crew members were evacuated and no injuries were reported. Dozens of its 2,500 containers were seen floating in the water. Rumours that iPhones and other expensive goods were among its cargo – fuelled by fake AI-generated photos published on social media – prompted fishers and others to investigate. One fisher told an Iranian reporter: “The Arab boatmen, who were closer to the ship, arrived earlier than the Iranians. They used stonecutters to cut the container and took whatever was there.” Col Javad Mokhtar Rezaei, the deputy head of cultural and social affairs for Iran’s cyber police (Fata), told the Tasnim news agency: “In some cases, the phones offered may actually exist, but exposing electronic components to salt water and extreme humidity can cause corrosion of internal components, damage to the boards, battery and display, and cause hidden malfunctions in the device’s performance.” Meysam Doost-Mohammadi, a spokesperson for the Iranian mobile phone Aassociation, said it would be unusual for valuable devices to be transported by ship. The bulk of the recent attacks have occurred close to the coast with Oman, a route that Iran regards as unauthorised. In the seven days to Friday 16 October, 12 vessels were attacked, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO). The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has the right to attack any ship that seeks to traverse the strait without its permission or with its transponders off. Officials have also ordered local fishers not to pillage the sea for luxury items, saying the goods are the property of the state. Two oil tankers were hit on Saturday, including a supertanker carrying 2m barrels of oil, according to the IRGC. The Fars news agency published a video that appears to show the tanker burning, but which cannot be independently verified. A third tanker was hit late on Sunday. It is disputed how many ships have been hit by mines or IRGC shelling. UKMTO’s weekly overview recorded 254 transits of the strait (125 outbound, 129 inbound) in the week to 14 October, approximately 70% below pre-conflict levels. Dr Devaraj Asir Ramesh, of Anna University in Chennai, India, warned that the region’s marine habitats faced threats from toxic debris and oil spills, while noise might have disturbed marine life. Iranian strikes on the Emirates, he said, were likely to have contaminated seagrass beds with hydrocarbons and caused auditory damage to cetaceans – marine mammals such as dolphins and porpoises – which are sensitive to loud noise that travels through the sea. Oil released by attacks on tankers at Fujairah could have caused ecological harm, he added. “Oil spills, chemical leaks and acoustic disturbances have impaired biodiversity, fisheries, aquaculture, desalination, and eco-tourism,” he wrote in the International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Sciences. On Friday, the Iranian president said the conflicts in Gaza and the wider Middle East had inflicted a significant toll on nature that extended beyond borders and required “international solutions”. “What has occurred in our region as a result of wars of aggression is ecocide, or environmental genocide, and it must be condemned,” Masoud Pezeshkian said. He argued that countries subjected to economic sanctions or military aggression should not be forced to shoulder the financial burden of environmental damage resulting from conflicts they did not initiate. Successive studies, mainly by US universities using satellite imagery, have warned of the dangers facing the strait. Meanwhile, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Tehran offering to act as an intermediary between Iran and Donald Trump, especially over the issue of Iran’s nuclear stockpile, which the US president insists must be addressed before he lifts his threat to attack Iran again. Iran has offered to open the strait in six days in return for sanctions relief. Russia has offered to take Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but Iran is reluctant to make a commitment on its nuclear programme and has not given the International Atomic Energy Agency access to its bombed nuclear sites since June 2025. Lavrov also proposed a trilateral summit between China, Russia and Iran to agree new security architecture for the strait. He said the region was on the verge of a full-scale crisis. Tehran is braced for another attack soon, especially after the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, launched a new national security doctrine on Sunday that included an emphasis on prevention and offence, including pre-emptive strikes on potential threats.

Three trespassing tankers erupt in ‘massive fires’ after hitting mines in Hormuz: IRGC Navy --Three oil tankers have gone up in blaze after striking naval mines while navigating unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)’s Navy says. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the IRGC Navy said the vessels had been rocked by explosions resulting in “massive fires” since the early hours of the day after switching off their navigation and identification systems and attempting to transit unauthorized routes through the strategic waterway. The vessels were left off the southern coast of the strait and stayed ablaze, according to the statement. The statement described the fires as so intense that fishermen in the eastern part of the waterway witnessed the resulting “brightly lit night.” The IRGC Navy said the Islamic Republic’s regulations governing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz had been repeatedly communicated to all vessels through radio stations and official notices. It warned that vessels disregarding the regulations and cooperating with the US military to use unauthorized routes through the strait would face similar incidents. Addressing claims made by the US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees the American troops deployed to West Asia, the IRGC Navy said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz differed from the account presented by the military command on social media. "The reality of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is what you are seeing, not what the terrorist CENTCOM commander claims on social media using archival footage," the statement said. Iran closed the chokepoint following the launch of the latest round of unprovoked American-Israeli aggression against the country on February 28. The Islamic Republic and the United States agreed on a 60-day reopening period as part of a Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding in June. Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to implement the understanding, but American violations forced the country to reestablish the closure. Tehran has conditioned reopening of the waterway on realization of seven prerequisites. The Islamic Republic has previously identified cessation of aggression on all fronts, elimination of an illegal naval blockade imposed by the United States against the country, removal of illegal sanctions, and unfreezing of Iranian assets as some of the main conditions to be met by Washington.

IRGC announces destruction of four ships in Strait of Hormuz | The Jerusalem Post --Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said four oil tankers were destroyed after striking naval mines while trying to traverse a route described as prohibited south of the key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz.  In a statement, the elite corps said the tankers were still ablaze, and added that two other vessels had been seized.  On Sunday, the IRGC announced that two oil tankers had hit Iranian mines while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  The tankers "were in violation of regulations," the spokesperson said, explaining that they were traveling on "an unauthorized route in the Strait." The IRGC spokesperson added that oil tankers had switched off the navigation and identification systems, as they wanted "to pass covertly through an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz with the support of the terrorist US military."  An oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was also hit by an unknown projectile earlier on Sunday, the United Kingdom Maritime and Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center announced.

Iran Says Four Oil Tankers Destroyed by Mines Near Strait of Hormuz - Four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines in an area south of the Strait of Hormuz proscribed by Iran as prohibited for navigation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday, as attacks on vessels in the region intensify while crude oil flows have dipped from recent highs. The four tankers are still ablaze, while two other vessels have been seized, the Revolutionary Guards said. While flows have recovered substantially from the lows in the spring, the security situation in and near the Strait of Hormuz has actually deteriorated, with a higher number of attacks on tankers in recent weeks.Following a post-war peak in September, exports of crude oil, condensate, and fuels from the Middle East slipped to 17.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, down from 18.9 million bpd in September, according to data from Vortexa cited by Reuters.. “October data shows Middle East seaborne oil exports have pulled back slightly from recent post-war highs on heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz,” George Morris, an analyst at Vortexa, said in comments reported by the publication. Kpler has tracked a 1-million-bpd drop in total crude oil and condensate exports. Crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman are estimated, provisionally, to have dropped to 16.1 million bpd in October, from 17.09 million bpd in September. However, the tanker-tracking services caution that the numbers could be revised up as more details on shipments, especially shuttle shipments, emerge in the coming days. Oil flows from the Middle East region have materially increased since the lows in April and May, but the heightened security concerns and intensified attacks, mines, and other explosions and incidents are making tracking shipments difficult. Tanker-trackers increasingly rely on satellite imagery to confirm movements because vessels are often switching off transponders to avoid detection when transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  

Iran's IRGC says two tankers and tugboat caught fire in Strait of Hormuz -  (Reuters) - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that ‌two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to ⁠use unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz. One tanker struck a mine while attempting to cross a passage south of the strait, while ‌another ⁠supertanker caught fire while exiting the route in the eastern part of the ⁠waterway, the IRGC said. A tugboat that approached the ⁠second vessel to help extinguish the fire ⁠also caught fire.

Tanker struck by 2 unidentified projectiles off Qatar coast: UK maritime agency  -A tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles off the coast of Qatar, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said Thursday. In a maritime warning, the agency said it had received a verified report of an incident approximately 50 nautical miles (93 kilometers) north of Madinat ash Shamal at 2320GMT Wednesday. The agency said the condition of the crew, the extent of damage to the vessel and any potential environmental impact remained unconfirmed. It advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report any suspicious activity as authorities continued to investigate the incident. The incident came amid heightened maritime tensions following the US-Iran military confrontation and continuing security concerns affecting shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran claims it downed 2 US reconnaissance drones over Qeshm Island - Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Thursday that it had brought down two US MQM-170 reconnaissance drones over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA. In two separate statements, the IRGC said its Aerospace Force used advanced electronic warfare systems to disable the drones over the island, bringing the total number of MQM-170 drones it claimed to have downed to six. The statements did not provide further details about the incidents. Iran previously claimed to have brought down four US MQM-170 drones in the Strait of Hormuz area during the ongoing conflict. The latest incidents come amid continued military tensions between Tehran and Washington following the US-Israeli offensive against Iran that began on Feb. 28.

Iran’s security chief, Russian president underscore need to continue strategic cooperation - Iran’s top security official and the Russian president have underscored the need to continue strategic cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in line with the roadmap established by the two countries. In a phone conversation on Monday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Major General Mohsen Rezaei, and President Vladimir Putin discussed the latest regional and international developments, with particular emphasis on the situation in West Asia. Rezaei expressed appreciation for the explicit positions of the Russian president and other officials in praise of the role of martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and other national heroes. The SNSC secretary also commended Russia’s support for the Iranian people’s resilience and steadfastness. Back in March, the Russian president said the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei constituted a flagrant violation of all norms of human ethics and international laws. In a message, Putin extended his deep condolences to President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Iranian nation over the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei and his family in a US-Israeli terrorist strike against Tehran on February 28. The Russian leader was also the first foreign leader to congratulate Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on his election as the new Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Iran and Russia officially began executing a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in October 2025, marking a significant step towards strengthening their bilateral ties. The treaty was signed by President Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow on January 17, 2025. During a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Tehran last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said bilateral cooperation can help promote stability in the region, as the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to continued engagement on regional and international issues.

Syria Says It's Considering Joining the Mecca Defense Pact - Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, a former al-Qaeda member, said on Saturday that Damascus was considering joining the Mecca defense pact, the new military alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey.“Discussions are currently underway to evaluate Syria’s entry into the Mecca alliance,” al-Shaibani said at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain.Al-Shaibani’s comments come several weeks after several media outlets reported that Syria was considering sending troops to Yemen to help Saudi Arabia fight Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.The Syrian government denied the reports and said its plan is to focus on Syria’s internal situation, but the country’s potential membership in the Mecca defense pact could draw it into the war. Both Pakistan and Turkey have pledged support for Saudi Arabia’s war, though so far there’s no indication that they are aiding in offensive operations against Ansar Allah. Axios reported that Syria’s potential Yemen deployment could specifically include a military unit known to be full of foreign jihadists who previously fought under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda offshoot that took power in December 2024 after the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.  Like Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, al-Shaibani was a founding member of the al-Nusra Front, Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliate that became HTS when it rebranded to gain more international support in the war against Assad. According to a February 2025 Pentagon Inspector General report, al-Shaibani managed the group and oversaw its transition into HTS.

Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen Killed 140 Civilians, Including 40 Children, in October - - The month of October saw the highest rate of civilian casualties caused by US-backed Saudi airstrikes in Yemen since December 17, according to a report from the Yemen Data Project (YDP), as the bombing campaign has dramatically escalated in the months since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport in July.The YDP found that Saudi airstrikes killed at least 140 civilians and wounded 286. The death toll includes 40 children, and 60 children were also wounded, as many of the strikes hit civilian homes and massacred families.Children wounded by a Saudi bombing of a civilian home in Yemen’s Saada province on October 18, 2026 (screenshot of footage from Yemen’s Al Masirah TV)The report said that October marked the worst month for child harm in Saudi bombings since August 2018, when a Saudi strike hit a school bus in the Saada province of northern Yemen, killing at least 40 children, a strike that was carried out with a US-supplied bomb. The YDP said that Yemen’s southwestern Taiz province was the most heavily bombed and saw the most civilian casualties in October, but the single worst incident of civilian harm and child death occurred in Saada on October 18, when a Saudi strike hit a home, killing at least 10 civilians, including seven children. Another 23 civilians were recorded as injured, including eight women and 12 children.The YDP’s previous report found that at least 66 civilians were killed by Saudi airstrikes in September, when the war significantly escalated as Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, made lightning gains in a ground offensive against Saudi-backed forces. The YDP’s numbers are slightly lower than civilian death tolls released by the Health Ministry in the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government, but their figures also appear to include civilian casualties in attacks launched by Saudi-backed forces on the ground.  While Saudi Arabia is conducting a heavy bombing campaign in Yemen and is killing a lot of people, the strikes have done nothing to roll back the Ansar Allah gains. Saudi Arabia also continues to face heavy Ansar Allah attacks on its airports and oil infrastructure, and appears to be looking for a way out of the war.The Saudi bombing campaign is strongly backed by the US, which has up to 200 military advisors deployed in Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and targeting support. The US has also resumed refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support that was cut off back in 2018.

Saudi Attacks in Yemen Have Killed 232 Civilians Since July: Health Ministry – Saudi attacks in Yemen have killed at least 232 civilians, including 68 children and 35 women, since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport on July 13, the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government said on Saturday.  On top of the deaths, the Health Ministry said that 536 civilians, including 137 children and 72 women, have been wounded. The vast majority of the civilian casualties were inflicted in September and October, following the start of the ground offensive launched by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis. Civilian casualties spiked significantly toward the end of October, with two large-scale massacres of civilians reported last week. An October 28 Saudi bombing of a market in the northern al-Jawf province killed 14 civilians, and Saudi airstrikes hit two civilian homes in the southwestern Taiz province on October 29, killing 12 civilians, including multiple children.The civilian casualties continued over the weekend, and on Sunday, Saudi airstrikes in the Taiz province killed at least one child and injured two girls, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency. Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said dozens of Saudi strikes were launched over the past 24 hours.“Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 75 airstrikes and missile attacks targeting civilian areas in the governorates of Saada, Taiz, Amran, Ibb, Dhamar, Lahj, Hodeidah, and Al-Jawf,” he wrote on Telegram, adding that the attacks were launched by US-made F-15 fighter jets and European-made Typhoon aircraft that took off from Saudi bases. “This brings the total number of Saudi-led airstrikes and missile attacks since the escalation began to 3,830,” Saree said.The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen was notorious for bombing civilian areas during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict has followed a similar pattern. The US is strongly backing the Saudi bombing campaign by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support the US suspended back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress.

Saudi Airstrikes Across Yemen Kill at Least 12 Civilians, Including Six Children - - US-backed Saudi airstrikes pounded targets across Ansar Allah-controlled Yemen on Wednesday, killing at least 12 civilians, including six children, according to the Health Ministry within the Sanaa-based Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government. The majority of the casualties occurred in the southwestern Taiz province, where a Saudi airstrike hit a civilian home in the Hayfan District. According to the Health Ministry, the strike killed at least four people, including a woman and three children, and wounded four other people.  Screenshot of footage from Yemen’s Al Masirah TV that shows children who were injured by Saudi strikes in the Taiz province on November 4, 2026The Health Ministry also reported that a Saudi airstrike hit another civilian home in Taiz’s Maqbana district and killed seven civilians, including two children. Another 13 civilians were wounded, including seven children.“Targeting populated homes constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law and human rights principles, and reflects a determination to target civilians and endanger their lives, the ministry said on Telegram. Saudi strikes also hit the northern Saada province, where at least one child was killed, and two other people were injured. Footage of the aftermath broadcast by Yemen’s Al-Masirah TV showed what appeared to be remnants of a US-made precision-guided bomb.Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said that Saudi Arabia launched over 100 airstrikes and missile attacks in Yemen over the past 24 hours. “Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 104 airstrikes and missile attacks targeting civilian areas in the capital, Sanaa, and the governorates of Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, Sadaa, Amran, Marib, Taiz, and Lahj,” he wrote on Telegram.  “These attacks, carried out using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft operating from Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases, and missile strikes launched from Najran and Jizan, resulted in dozens of martyrs and wounded, mostly women and children,” Saree added. The Saudi bombing campaign is strongly backed by the US, which has up to 200 military advisors deployed in Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and targeting support. The US has also resumed refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support that was cut off back in 2018.

Israeli Politician Who Said It's 'Morally' Right To Kill Babies in Gaza Wins Knesset Seat -   An Israeli politician who has labeled Palestinian babies in Gaza the “enemy” and has said it’s “morally” right to kill them has secured a seat in the incoming Israeli Knesset, which is set to be sworn in on November 10, regardless of whether a new government is formed. Moshe Feilgin, the leader of the Zehut party, previously served in the Knesset as a member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netnayahu’s Likud party from 2013 to 2015. Zehut joined forces with Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, ahead of the October 27 election, and the alliance secured six seats in the new Knesset.Since the election, Feiglin has said he hopes to become Israel’s defense minister, though there’s been no sign that he’s been offered the job, and it remains unclear what the next government will look like since Netanyahu’s coalition hasn’t secured a majority to form a government.Last year, Feiglin made headlines when he said that “every child, every baby in Gaza is an enemy” of Israel. “Every child in Gaza is the enemy. We need to occupy Gaza and settle it, and not a single Gazan child will be left there. There is no other victory,” he said in an appearance on Israeli TV. In a recent English-language interview with the Jerusalem Post, Feiglin doubled down on his viewpoint, saying that he personally doesn’t want to see babies killed even though he thinks it is “morally” the right thing to do, and that he would prefer all Palestinians to be expelled from Gaza instead.“I’m saying again again because I’m Jewish and I guess I’m a bit a little bit weak morally. I don’t want to see babies killed, okay? Morally, that should have been done, because of everything I explained. So, but because … I’m Jewish with a soft heart, I would open the borders and let them all go, but no one can stay. And it has to be a part of the Jewish land, Jewish state,” he said.Elsewhere in the interview, Feiglin said it was “100%” a Jewish point of view to “wipe out” Gaza, expel all the Palestinians, and annex Gaza and the West Bank. He labeled all of Gaza as the “enemy,” not just Hamas.“The baby that would be born — I’ll say something very tough now, excuse me for saying it — the baby that will be born tomorrow in Gaza, the Arab baby. Notice I’m not saying Hamas, I’m not saying Palestinian … the enemy is Gaza, not Hamas. The baby that will be born in Gaza tomorrow will do exactly the same — God forbid — to your baby that would be born in Jerusalem,” he said.

As Israel Shelling Continues, Lebanon Agriculture Minister Says 22.5% of Farmland Damaged - --  Israeli forces continued with their destruction of southern Lebanon, and while most of the focus is rightly on the municipalities they’ve attacked and in many cases outright destroyed, the long-term struggle for reconstruction could be the extent of damage to farmland on the outskirts of those villages.  Southern Lebanon has (or had) heavily agriculture-based economy, and artillery shelling isn’t just helping the IDF level buildings, but also scorching the earth in general, and leaving a growing amount of Lebanon’s agricultural land burned or otherwise damaged.Nazir Hani, the Lebanese Agriculture Minister, reported that some 56,000 hectares of farmland, or about 22.5% of the overall farmland across all of Lebanon, has been damaged by the Israeli war. 24,000 hectares of that appears to be olive groves. Some of the trees are bulldozed or otherwise uprooted, and still others have been burnt down by the use of Israeli incendiaries, including white phosphorus munitions. Access to those olive groves still standing has been limited this harvest season, as the IDF strictly restricts access to many of them in occupied territory.  Today’s reports of strikes centered around Bint Jbeil District, which is in the far south along the Israeli border, and enclosed within the occupied “security zone” The strikes hit the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal and the area around the town of al-Tayri.Adding to the complexity of the situation are reports that Turkey is taking an interest in southern Lebanon, potentially as part of their growing regional rivalry with Israel. President Erdogan’s son Bilal has reportedly considered a possible visit to the south, though such plans are unconfirmed.

France Launches Israeli War Crimes Inquiry Over Lebanon - - Israel is in the process of invading and occupying southern Lebanon. That’s not unusual, of course, and they’ve launched multiple invasions of southern Lebanon in recent years, largely with little to no legal consequence.The Paris Judicial Court’s crimes against humanity unit today reported they are appointing a pair of investigating judges to war crimes complaints related to an Israeli attack on Beirut in 2024, which targeted a residential building and killed seven civilians.Ali Cherri, a Lebanon-born French filmmaker, filed the complaint, noting that his parents, aged 87 and 77 at the time, were among those civilians killed in the strike. He filed the complaint with the French court system in early April of this year.The strike was during the waning days of the previous Israeli war, as the IDF most recently started invading southern Lebanon again in March of 2026. While this investigation itself doesn’t directly relate to the current invasion, that doesn’t mean it’s not consequential.Amnesty International praised the court’s move, calling it “a critical, long-overdue step towards making a dent in the wall of pervasive impunity enjoyed by Israeli forces for war crimes,” and could set the stage for the court to move on other complaints that are related to the current war, which are still pending.The courts have also received complaints from a French citizen who lost both parents and other family members in the mid-April attacks on Tyre, and a French entrepreneur has complained about Israeli forces uprooting olive trees belonging to his family.Several more strikes were reported by Israeli forces against southern Lebanon today. No casualties were reported, but damage was done against several municipalities, including Kfar Tebnit.

As Lebanon Destruction Grows, Attacks on Equipment Complicate Reconstruction - As the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon continues to drag on, the extent of the destruction caused continues to mount, and Lebanese officials continue to provide details as to the troubling extent of the land burned or otherwise destroyed in the conflict. A new statement from the Lebanese Agriculture Minister Tamara al-Zein reports that Israel has burned around 160 km² worth of farmland in its assorted military operations since 2023. Nearly half that, 70 km², has been burned just between March invasion and August of this year.The full extent of the damage is only an estimate at this point because Israeli occupation forces are preventing officials from carrying out assessments on the land, forcing them to rely heavily on satellite imagery to determine the condition of the territory. Southern Lebanon is heavily agriculture-reliant, with both farmland and olive groves amounting to major portions of the region’s economy. Much of the damage is being caused by the Israeli use of incendiaries, though a lot of deliberate bulldozing and artillery shelling of the land has added to the damage.Reconstruction is still on hold, since the occupation and war both show no signs of ending. Even when they do, however, Israeli strikes have heavily targeted exactly the construction equipment southern Lebanon would’ve needed to clear the damage and prepare the areas for reconstruction.The IDF has argued that any heavy construction vehicles were “intended to support Hezbollah,” and have argued that it is legitimate to target them. They’ve similarly framed civilian villages as Hezbollah infrastructure, and Defense Minister Israel Katz has bragged about destroying over 60 of those villages over the course of the most recent war.

Israeli forces shoot senior Hamas commander Hassan Salameh nine times inside prison cell after Ben-Gvirs death threat- Palestinian resistance leader Hassan Salameh, a senior commander in the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was shot nine times by Israeli prison guards inside his isolation cell and remains in extremely critical condition, his fiancée, writer Ghufran al-Zamil, said Monday. The attack occurred on September 28, the same day far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stormed Salameh’s cell at Ganot Prison, surrounded by armed guards, and told the shackled prisoner, “I want to kill you, I want to execute you.” Palestinian Prisoners’ Center and Prisoners’ Media Office statements described the footage as showing clear signs of starvation, torture, and deliberate medical neglect, holding the Zionist regime fully responsible for his life. Salameh, born in 1971 in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza to a family displaced during the 1948 Nakba, has been imprisoned since 1996. He received 48 life sentences, one of the heaviest terms ever imposed, for organizing retaliatory operations after Israel assassinated Qassam commander Yahya Ayyash. He has spent roughly half of his nearly 30 years behind bars in solitary confinement, including prolonged isolation after the October 2023 events. Israel has repeatedly refused to include him in prisoner-exchange deals despite longstanding demands by the resistance. Al-Zamil and prisoner advocacy groups reported that forces beat Salameh before and after the Ben-Gvir visit, then opened fire with nine rounds. He was later photographed for documentation but returned to his cell with only basic painkillers and no proper treatment. A lawyer’s visit on November 2 confirmed his deteriorating condition, with visible exhaustion and ongoing suffering. Palestinian sources described the episode as the latest escalation in the regime’s systematic policy of torture, starvation, and medical neglect against thousands of Palestinian detainees. The incident fits a broader pattern. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly used prison visits for electoral propaganda, boasting of turning prisoners’ lives into “hell” while advancing calls for executions and mass displacement. Palestinian organizations labeled the cell raid a “cheap political stunt” and “cowardly bullying” of a defenseless prisoner. Hamas and other resistance factions have demanded urgent international intervention to protect detainees and secure their release. Salameh is among roughly 10,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, many without charge or trial. The regime’s treatment of these prisoners -- documented by rights groups as including beatings, isolation, and denial of care -- continues amid the wider war of aggression against Gaza and the occupied territories. Resistance groups have long identified veteran prisoners such as Salameh as symbols of steadfastness whose freedom is inseparable from the broader struggle against occupation.

Israel’s president taps opposition candidate Eisenkot to form a government, in setback for Netanyahu --  Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Saturday night that he was giving opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot the first opportunity to form a governing coalition following elections on Oct. 27. Eisenkot, a former military chief who ran as the main challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is now a step closer to ousting Israel’s longest-serving premier. “This is the time to establish a national emergency government. I will do anything possible to prove us worthy,” Eisenkot posted on his X account just after the presidential announcement. He has up to six weeks to form a coalition, a challenging task in a deeply divided country reeling from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks and the three years of wars that have followed in Gaza and beyond. In discussions with the president this week, representatives from most of Israel’s main parties recommended Eisenkot be tasked with assembling a new government. But putting together the parliamentary majority needed remains fraught and any possible coalition would require candidates to make tough compromises that could outrage their own voters. Netanyahu and his allies lost their majority in parliament in last month’s elections. But the bloc led by Eisenkot also didn’t win a majority. That left Arab-led parties, which made historic gains, as potential but politically fraught kingmakers. An Arab party has been part of a governing coalition just once in Israel’s history. Forming such an alliance could be especially divisive for Eisenkot after more than three years of war in Gaza. Netanyahu has been on a campaign to head off any alliance between Eisenkot and the Arab-led parties, including unsubstantiated claims that Arab parties “stole” the elections. Shortly before Herzog’s announcement, he called for a “national unity government” in a video statement and warned against “hastily swearing in a government with terrorist supporters” — language he uses to refer to the Arab-led parties. Netanyahu and his allies have repeatedly portrayed the Arab-led parties as a threat to national security, while Eisenkot has indicated a willingness to partner with them under certain conditions, including calling Hamas a terrorist group that needs to be destroyed. Eisenkot and Netanyahu, whose Likud is the single largest party in parliament, could seek to create a broad unity government with major Jewish parties. However, the men have big differences over many issues that will be difficult to bridge. That includes Netanyahu’s reliance on religious parties that demand draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, as well as Netanyahu’s opposition to a formal investigation into the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attacks. Eisenkot could also seek to create a “minority” government — shored up by external support from Arab parties that are not formal members of his coalition. However, other members of his bloc have said they would reject such an alliance. Eisenkot’s party, Yashar, slammed the prime minister’s video in a statement posted on X and urged members of his party, Likud, to disavow their alliance with “radical parties,” seemingly referring to the far-right parties in his religious-nationalist base. The statement argued that Eisenkot would only include parties and parliament members who support his party’s principles.