Focus on Fracking

SPR at a new 43 year low; US oil production at an eight month high; gasoline supplies at a thirty-three week low; distillates demand at a fifty-eight week low led to the largest inventory build in six months

natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished lower for a third straight week, as a surplus of gas in storage outweighed Mideast war concerns and the impact of the heatwave covering the northeastern third of the country….after falling 8% to $2.940 per mmBTU last week on a larger than expected injection of gas into storage and on an unplanned maintenance related drop in LNG demand, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for August delivery opened 5.2 cents lower on Monday, as traders weighed natural gas supply abundance and curbed LNG volumes against forecasts for sizzling heat and strong cooling demand, but rose through midday as traders eyeed shifting fundamentals, both domestic and international, before fading to settle 4.3 cents lower at $2.897 per mmBTU on rising output, forecasts for less demand than previously expected, and a decline in flows to LNG export plants during maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas…August natural gas opened 3.2 cents lower on Tuesday, but was quick to reclaim lost ground as the current heatwave lent a hand to increased power generation, more than offsetting steady production and partially sidelined LNG exports, and settled seven-tenths of a cent higher at $2.904 per mmBTU, as prices struggled to benefit from escalating Middle East tensions because the sizable storage cushion, milder late-July weather expectations, and reduced LNG demand during terminal maintenance kept sellers in control.… natural gas prices opened 2.4 cents lower on Wednesday, but soon moved higher, as traders positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s storage report, and settled 2.0 cents higher at $2.924 per mmBTU as a heat wave blanketed the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, boosting power generation demand for gas to keep air conditioners running….natural gas prices traded around $2.940 ahead of the storage report on Thursday, but then declined sharply as the storage build came in as expected, and settled 6.6 cents lower at $2.858 per mmBTU, as forecasts and fundamentals pointed to ample supply through the end of injection season…natural gas futures traded on either side of even early Friday as traders absorbed healthy supply readings and forecasts for continued strong – but uneven – cooling demand in the week ahead, then began to climb as bargain buying returned and traders weighed persistent summer heat against largely unchanged market fundamentals, and settled the session 5.3 cents higher at $2.911 per mmBTU, but still finished 1.0% lower for the week, as traders appeared unconcerned about the pace of summer inventory builds…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending July 10th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 41 billion cubic feet to 3,024 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 21 billion cubic feet, or 0.7% below the 3,045 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on July 10th of last year, but 181 billion cubic feet, or 6.4% above the five-year average of 2,798 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 10th of July over the most recent five years….the 41 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week matched the 41 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, but it was less than the 47 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and was also less than the average 45 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early July week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 10th showed that after a modest increase in our exports while other oil metrics were little changed, we again needed to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for a record twelfth consecutive week, and for the 34th time in fifty-nine weeks, as a smaller draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve meant we needed to pull oil out of our commercially available oil supplies, which the EIA characterizes as being 'at tank bottoms'…. Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 60,000 barrels per day to average 5,689,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 351,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 459,000 barrels per day to average 3,721,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,968,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending July 10th, an average of 399,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 168,000 barrels per day less than the prior week at 225,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 1,000 barrels per day higher at an eight month high of 13,861,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,054,000 barrels per day during the July 10th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 17,123,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 10th, an average of 99,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 668,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending July 10th averaged a rounded 400,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +400,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Since 49,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 449,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and therefore pretty useless.... However, since most oil traders react to to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s 668,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 242,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 426,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixteenth consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR, including the four largest draws in SPR history, which left the SPR at 316,504,000 barrels, the lowest since it was initially being filled in April 1983…Despite those recent draws on the SPR and on commercial supplies, and even with with total fuel inventories tracking near multi-year lows, our Total Supplies of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including the SPR, rose to 1,527,349,000 barrels during the week ending July 10th, after it had fallen to a 23 year low the prior week….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 5,542,000 barrels per day last week, which was 12.2% less than the 6,314,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports fell to 3,915,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 21.9% more than the 3,213,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,861,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 10,000 barrels per day lower at 13,430,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 11,000 barrels per day higher at 431,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 5.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 42.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 96.2% of their capacity while processing those 17,123,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 10th, up from 95.8% the prior week, utilization rates that are typical of mid-summer….the 17,123,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 1.6% more than the 16,849,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending July 11th of 2025, but were 0.8% less than the 17,267,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending July 12th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.4%, which was near the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was lower, decreasing by 96,000 barrels per day to 9,640,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 10th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 233,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 6.1% higher than the 9,084,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending July 11th of last year, but 2.2% less than the gasoline production of 9,855,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending July 12th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 5,259,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 1,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that increase, our distillates output was 5.5% more than the 4,984,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending July 11th of 2025, while 1.9% less than the 5,361,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending July 12th, 2019....

With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 19th time in twenty-two weeks, decreasing by 1,533,000 barrels to a thirty-three week low of 210,529,000 barrels during the week ending July 10th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,904,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased again this week as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users was virtually unchanged at 8,844,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of gasoline fell by 69,000 barrels per day to 354,000 barrels per day while our exports of gasoline fell by 59,000 barrels per day to 967,000 barrels per day… After fifty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past seventy-three weeks, our gasoline supplies were 9.6% lower than last July 11th’s gasoline inventories of 232,867,000 barrels, and about 8% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillates rose for the fourteenth time in twenty-four weeks and by the most since January 2nd, increasing by 4,556,000 barrels to 108,175,000 barrels during the week ending July 10th, the largest build in six months, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 4,980,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies rose sharply this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 1,151,000 barrels to a 58 week low of 3,156,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 133,000 barrels per day to 1,546,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 6,000 barrels per day to 93,000 barrels per day... After 29 additions to distillates inventories over the past 54 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.1% higher than the 106,970,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on July 11th of 2025, while they are still about 11% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,692,000 barrels over the week, from 411,357,000 barrels on July 3rd to 409,665,000 barrels on July 10th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,998,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 6% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were abut 17% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of July over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war...However, after falling sharply over the prior three months, our commercial crude oil inventories as of this July 10th were 3.0% below the 422,162,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on July 11th of 2025, and were 6.9% less than the 440,226,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on July 12th of 2024, and 10.4% less than the 457,420,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on July 14th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by seven over the week ending July 17th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by seven, while rigs targeting natural gas and miscellaneous rigs were both unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of July 17th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (July 10th) and this week’s (July 17th) count, the third column shows last week’s July 10th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 18th of July, 2025…

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UAE Closes on Minority Stake in Rover Pipeline, Ohio River System -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) investment group 2PointZero, via its subsidiary ePointZero, closed on its deal to acquire U.S. natural gas infrastructure firm Traverse Midstream Partners for $2.25 billion. This acquisition includes stakes in the Rover Pipeline and Ohio River System, which connect the productive Utica/Marcellus shale region to major demand centers and export hubs. The all-cash transaction gives the Abu Dhabi-based energy infrastructure platform a 35% non-operated stake in the Rover Pipeline and a 25% interest in the Ohio River System (ORS), both of which are operated by Energy Transfer.

Abu Dhabi's ePointZero Completes $2.25 Billion Traverse Midstream Acquisition -- ePointZero has completed its $2.25 billion acquisition of Traverse Midstream Partners, securing ownership interests in the Rover Pipeline and Ohio River System as it enters the U.S. natural gas infrastructure market. (P&GJ) — ePointZero has completed its $2.25 billion acquisition of Traverse Midstream Partners, marking the company's first investment in U.S. natural gas infrastructure and giving it ownership interests in two major Appalachian Basin pipeline systems. The all-cash transaction gives the Abu Dhabi-based energy infrastructure platform a 35% non-operated stake in the Rover Pipeline and a 25% interest in the Ohio River System (ORS), both operated by Energy Transfer. The assets provide natural gas transportation across the Marcellus and Utica shale regions, connecting production to LNG export facilities, power generation markets and industrial customers. The acquisition marks ePointZero's entry into the U.S. midstream sector and expands its global portfolio of energy infrastructure assets supported by long-term transportation agreements. Mohamed Hesham, chief executive officer of ePointZero, said the transaction establishes the company's presence in one of the world's largest natural gas markets. "By securing a significant stake in a premier North American natural gas transportation network, we are acquiring stable, long-term cash flows while establishing a platform for future expansion in North America," Hesham said. According to the company, the acquired assets are located in the Appalachian Basin, the largest natural gas-producing region in North America. The pipeline systems transport low-cost natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays to major demand centers, including LNG export corridors, power generation facilities and industrial markets. John Raymond, founder and executive chairman of Energy & Minerals Group (EMG), said Traverse developed a strategic position in two of the region's most significant pipeline systems during EMG's ownership. "Traverse established a valuable position in two of the most strategically important natural gas systems in North America, supported by strong fundamentals and growing demand," Raymond said. J.P. Morgan Securities served as financial advisor to ePointZero, while Evercore and Greenhill & Co., a Mizuho affiliate, advised Traverse on the transaction.

Steubenville Council moves to accept bid, proceed with mineral leasing near homes — After months of deliberation, Steubenville officials have decided to move forward with leasing the city’s mineral rights to the oil and gas industry, including areas near residential neighborhoods. City Council made a motion to accept the bid as presented and proceed with bidding out the lease of its minerals. Residents were given an opportunity to share their thoughts ahead of council’s vote, and many raised concerns about what the move could mean for areas such as Beatty Park. “This is not something you want by a park," one resident said. "There's no amount of money that will replace the ecosystem and the beauty of Beaty Park." Another resident urged council to slow down and broaden public involvement. “Tonight, I hope you would reject the bids you have and if you really think this is worth pursuing establish a committee that will include residents who actually live in these areas," the resident said. Some residents also cited what they believe is a lack of conversation among council members about how mineral leasing could impact the area. Fourth Ward Councilman Royal Mayo voted against the bid, echoing residents’ concerns and questioning whether the potential negative effects of fracking are worth the money the city could receive. “We didn't get enough information on the negative effects, what could go wrong, all we got was a number, all we heard was money," Mayo said. "What about the side effects for health? And health reasons for the citizens of the city of Steubenville?" First Ward Councilman David Albaugh voted in favor of the leasing and said there will not be a well pad in Steubenville. He also emphasized his support for the move. “I mean, everything in the city is already being fracked around Beatty Park, Bellevue, Jim Woods," Albaugh said. "And the city doesn't need to sit back and let the train pass us by again."

Steubenville, OH Votes to Lease City-Owned Land for $7,000/Acre -- Marcellus Drilling News - - After months of deliberation, Steubenville (Jefferson County), Ohio, City Council voted to accept a bid and proceed with leasing the city’s mineral rights to the oil and gas industry, including areas near residential neighborhoods and Beatty Park. Some residents voiced strong opposition, citing threats to the park’s ecosystem, health concerns, and insufficient public involvement, urging the council to reject bids or form a resident-inclusive committee. Fourth Ward Councilman Royal Mayo voted against it, questioning fracking’s health effects. First Ward Councilman David Albaugh supported it, noting that surrounding areas are already fracked and that no well pad would be built in Steubenville. The money (over $1 million!) is expected within 90 days.

Steubenville accepts $1.1 million bid to frack 157 acres of its own land, including two parks - The eastern Ohio city of Steubenville accepted a $1.1 million bid to lease about 157 acres of its own land for fracking during Tuesday’s city council meeting. Steubenville City Council voted to lease 19 parcels to Oklahoma-based Ascent Resources – Utica, said Steubenville resident Greg Burrier, who was at the city council meeting. One council member voted against it. “I’m extremely disappointed,” he said. “I feel like I got the rug pulled out from underneath my feet.” The money will be put in the city’s general fund, but the city has yet to decide what it will be spent on, Burrier said. The Ohio Capital Journal sent questions to Steubenville Mayor Ralph Petrella but he did not respond. This is the first time Save Ohio Parks has heard of an Ohio city seeking bids to frack its own public land. Fracking is the process of injecting liquid into the ground at a high pressure to extract oil or gas. “Given that the state is doing this, it’s probably not surprising that a city would think that’s the way to make money too,” said Save Ohio Parks Board President Cathy Cowan Becker. “The state is very, I guess, determined to lease out its state public lands for fracking, it’s probably not a surprise that some cities are looking at that as well.” Nearly 100 of those acres is under Beatty Park, which is next to Union Cemetery-Beatty Park — a site listed on the National Register of Historic Places. “It’s got a nice tree canopy,” said Burrier, who has fond memories growing up of going to Beatty Park. “It’s in a hollow, and it’s got shale formations, limestone formations, and sandstone formations on each side.” Burrier lives close to Jim Woods Park, which will also be fracked. The roughly 20-acre park is next to an elementary school. “They’re not going to frack underneath the elementary school, but where they’re fracking borders the elementary school, which I think is ridiculous,” he said. Steubenville passed an ordinance in October authorizing leasing public lands for fracking. The city originally tried to bid out four parcels in December, but received no bids. The city tried again earlier this year with the 19 parcels and received two bids from Texas-based Pike Petroleum for $249,000 and the winning bid from Ascent Resources – Utica. Becker hopes other Ohio cities do not try to lease their own land for mineral rights. “If they see dollar signs, cities are always strapped for money and since the state is doing it, this is where their minds go for how to raise some money,” she said. There were approximately 2,000 incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio from 2015-2023, according to FracTracker Alliance, a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. There were 19 incidents in Jefferson County, where Steubenville is located. There’s evidence that shows increased exposure to fracking impacts health, in particular children’s health, including low birth weight, preterm births, congenital anomalies, and asthma, according to Yale School of Medicine. Fracking will cause air pollution, noise pollution, and light pollution, Becker said. “It will affect the park, just like it will affect and is affecting the state parks,” she said. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission recently approved bids to frack more than 15,000 acres of Ohio’s public land — including nearly 13,000 acres in Egypt Valley Wildlife Area, which is about an hour from Steubenville. Becker is concerned about the massive amount of water use that comes with fracking as well as the frack waste. “The toxic chemicals that go in, the radioactive stuff that comes out, and that’s going to have to be injected somewhere,” she said. “The truck traffic, each well is literally thousands of truck trips because every bit of that water and chemicals and sand has to be trucked in, and then all of that waste, truck load by truck load, has to be taken out.” Becker and Burrier both question if the roads in Steubenville are ready to handle the increased truck traffic. “The street (near my house) is just crumbling,” Burrier said. “They got to fix it every six, seven months and then it crumbles back again.”

Solon businesses evacuated, residents ordered to shelter after gas line struck along Miles Road, causing leak (WJW) — After a gas line was struck on Solon's north side on Wednesday, July 15, responders worked to evacuate nearby businesses and ordered residents to stay inside. Police and firefighters from Orange and Solon gave the all clear hours later, just before 6 p.m., lifting previous evacuation and shelter-in-place orders. But about 30 minutes later, officials reported a water main break in the same area, forcing a portion of Miles Road to close once again. The break caused "significant damage" to the roadway, according to an alert from Orange police. The road is now closed in front of Miles Farmers Market, according to the alert: Residents of the Villas of Orange should access their development via Brainard Road. Residents of Stonebrook and all other residents east of Miles Market should use Harper Road or Lander Road to reach their homes. Miles Road remains open to local traffic only. All other motorists are asked to avoid the area and use an alternate route while crews work to repair the damage. During the gas leak response, Miles Road was closed from Brainard Road to Naiman Parkway, according to Solon police. Utility workers shut off power to the area, to prevent ignition of any leaked gas. Orange Police Department issued an alert that read: All residents and motorists are instructed to completely avoid Miles Road between [Brainard] Road to Naiman Parkway. If you live in the immediate area, please remain indoors with your windows closed. If you smell gas inside your home, leave immediately and call 911. We will update you when the area is safe. Solon police just after 3:30 p.m. announced that U.S. Route 422 would close in both directions west of the Harper Road exit. Westbound traffic was unable to pass Harper Road and made to exit there. The roadway reopened later that afternoon, while Miles Road remained closed, according to Orange police. Just before 6 p.m., officials announced the natural gas lingering in the area had dissipated and that the "hazard has been eliminated." Hazardous material responders also tested affected buildings along and in the vicinity of Naiman Parkway and cleared employees to return. Utility crews are still working to restore gas and electric service "where necessary," reads the notice. Utility workers are expected to notify later when services could be restored.

Neighbors seek accountability after gas leak linked to Columbus fiber optic project – 10TV — Signs of a fiber optic upgrade are all over the Creek Ridge community in northeast Columbus. But neighbors — like Walt Pretko — tell 10 Investigates that the price of this progress has been steep. And it all came due when he got a knock on his door in late June. "It turned out to be the fire department, and they came, rushed in and checked for gas leak," he said. He said first responders told him the leak was connected to the digging crews had been doing in the area to lay fiber-optic cables for AT&T. "Just before dark the last Columbia Gas person was here, and he indicated to myself and my neighbor that we're lucky to be here and that they had just missed the electric line by 1 inch," Pretko said. "So, we feel very fortunate at this point in time." Jerry Lamm is Pretko's neighbor. He said crews on scene told him that if the electric line had been hit, the resulting explosion could have destroyed at least eight homes. "It hits you later," Lamm said. "In the moment the adrenaline's flowing, you have fire trucks in the neighborhood you have people banging on doors, but later you sit down and you think we were blessed to not be injured or killed." 10 Investigates contacted several agencies for comment about this incident. A spokesperson for Columbia Gas released the following statement: "Columbia Gas responded to a damaged gas line in the Creek Ridge community in late June. Repairs have been completed, and service is operating normally. We are unable to provide additional information at this time." City of Columbus records show that AT&T and a company called Sunrise Telecom initially applied for a permit to do work in this community. However, those records also show that AT&T was later hit with a $3,000 citation from the city because the permit application wasn't properly filled out at the time. The citation said the subcontractor doing the work wasn't listed on the application. And it goes on to say that the holes crews were digging weren't properly secured or re-filled. 10 Investigates then emailed AT&T for comment and a spokesperson released the following statement: "We apologize to residents for the disruption these incidents have caused. We take these concerns very seriously and temporarily paused work while we coordinated with our contractor and the city to help prevent any further impacts as we work to bring high-speed fiber internet to this community."

Trumbull County Commissioners in Warren, Ohio reassessing fiber optic work safety after crews hit gas line in Bazetta (WKBN) — Trumbull County Commissioners held a special meeting Thursday morning to consider shutting down all fiber optic installation work being done in the county because of the continuous problems the work is causing. It comes after Lumos Networks said workers hit a gas line while laying fiber optics underground along State Route 46, causing it to spew gas. The leak has been mitigated, and the Ohio EPA was called in. The road will remain closed until Saturday morning. The Ohio Department of Transportation says they need time to clean the road and remove any hazards. Marketing Director Steve Kristan told commissioners the company is voluntarily pausing work in Trumbull County for the next two weeks while it goes over its safety plans. At the meeting Thursday, commissioners said they’re tired of seeing the same thing happen over and over again. “The nature of the accidents that’s been happening lately, one house blown up and then two other ones — that’s too much in one county,” said Commissioner Denny Malloy. The meeting brought together township leaders, state officials, telecommunications companies and concerned residents to figure out where things go from here. “This is the first step of many steps, and we’re going to call a meeting with all the companies. We’re going to get them down, get them in a room, and we’re going to ask them to pause till we can be sure that the operations are completely safe,” said Commissioner Tony Bernard. Play VideoState Route 46 in Bazetta to remain closed until Saturday morning after gas line hit A couple of community leaders said they’re worried it’s only a matter of time before someone gets seriously hurt. Bazetta Township Trustee Mike Hovis called the situation a serious public safety issue and is urging commissioners to act before lives are put at risk. “The companies? They’re going to be here for another four years. Okay? And we have to make sure that they slow it down and that they do it right,” Bernard said. Commissioner Rick Hernandez said some residents simply have trouble communicating. “There’s a lot of issues with not being able to get information from non-English speaking workers,” Hernandez said. They say it isn’t about stopping broadband expansions but making sure crews can do the work safely before they start digging again. “I even suggested the companies that are in here putting these fiber optics that they may even hire some of our county engineers, if it’s county,” Hernandez said. Over the next two weeks, county leaders plan to meet with other fiber optic companies to find out what’s causing the repeated gas line hits and to discuss safety measures moving forward. No finite decision was made Thursday.

4 Washington County, OH Injection Wells Cease Operations (For Now) -- Marcellus Drilling News - Four Washington County, Ohio, Class II injection wells voluntarily stopped operating July 1-2 after state regulators from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) said they may be affecting nearby oil and gas production wells. The wells are Redbird Nos. 4 and 5, American Growers No. 1, and Nichols No. 1-A, although the Nichols owner disputed that operations had ceased at that well. ODNR and operators will develop corrective plans, while a third-party consultant examines nearby private water wells. Activists want broader, long-term groundwater testing, noting that Redbird No. 4 waste has previously migrated more than 5 miles underground. It’s important to note that the alleged migration of fluids affected other (conventional) oil and gas wells, NOT water wells.

Ohio’s New O&G Drilling Law Fast-Tracks Permits, Sparks Debate -- Marcellus Drilling News - - In June, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine signed Senate Bill (SB) 219 into law. The new law, the first significant update to Ohio’s oil and gas laws since the Kasich administration more than a decade ago, reforms Ohio’s orphaned oil and gas well program and other elements of Ohio’s O&G laws. One aspect of the new law establishes an expedited drilling and plugging permit process. The law prevents the state from rejecting expedited permit requests (capped at 10 per owner annually), shortens timelines for leasing and drilling on public lands—including 30-day permit approvals—and limits landowners’ ability to challenge expired lease renewals. Anti-fossil fuelers are fuming. What’s new?

Williams Sells 49% of Five Ohio Gas-Fired Power Plants for $5.34B -- Marcellus Drilling News - Pipeline giant Williams announced a $5.34 billion investment led by Blackstone Credit & Insurance, in partnership with Apollo and KKR, to fund its five behind-the-meter Power Innovation projects: Socrates, Apollo, Aquila, Socrates the Younger, and Neo. All five projects are located in Ohio and will use Utica (or Marcellus) shale gas. In exchange for the money, the investors receive a 49% noncontrolling ownership stake, while Williams retains 51% ownership and operational control, plus a buyout right between years 7 and 14. While the headline numbers focus on high-finance metrics, the practical, on-the-ground effect of this deal directly reshapes the Appalachian natural gas landscape, pipeline dynamics, and the regional race to power the AI-driven data center boom.

Infinity Natural Resources reports $57.5M derivative gain in Q2 2026 - Infinity Natural Resources (NYSE: INR) reported a total derivative gain of approximately $57.5 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, according to a company press release. The Morgantown, West Virginia-based energy company recorded realized losses of approximately $6.4 million from settled derivative contracts during the quarter. Those cash settlements were tied to financial contracts referencing crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and regional basis differentials. The company also recorded non-cash mark-to-market unrealized gains of approximately $63.9 million on its outstanding derivative portfolio. These gains reflect the revaluation of open derivative positions using forward commodity price curves as of June 30, 2026, and do not represent cash inflows or outflows for the period. As of June 30, 2026, Infinity's open oil (WTI) swap contracts totaled 4,074 thousand barrels across 2026 through 2028, with a combined fair value of negative $4.9 million. The company also held oil collar contracts covering 532 thousand barrels, with a combined fair value of $3 million. Natural gas (NYMEX) swap contracts totaled approximately 159.5 million MMBtu scheduled to settle between 2026 and 2030, carrying a combined fair value of $37.6 million. Natural gas fixed basis swaps covering approximately 19.2 million MMBtu carried a fair value of $8.3 million, while natural gas basis swaps totaling approximately 91.5 million MMBtu carried a negative fair value of $8.9 million. NGL swap contracts totaled approximately 2.98 million barrels with a combined fair value of $5.1 million. The company noted that the second quarter financial information is preliminary and unaudited, and final figures will be reported in the Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026. Infinity operates in the Appalachian Basin, with a focus on the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio and stacked dry gas assets in southwestern Pennsylvania.

7 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Jul 6 – 12 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received a piddly 7 new drilling permits last week, July 6 – 12, down 21 from two weeks ago. Last week, Pennsylvania issued just 1 new permit. Ohio issued 5 new permits. And, West Virginia issued 1 new permit. The drillers who received new permits included: Antero Resources (1), Expand Energy (3), and Gulfport Energy. Antero Resources | Belmont County | Bradford County | Expand Energy | Gulfport Energy | Monroe County | Ritchie County

PA DEP Issues Water Permits for EGTS Pipe Project from PA to OH -- Marcellus Drilling News - Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage (EGTS), a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (Warren Buffett’s company), filed a new project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in July 2025 (see Eastern Gas Files with FERC to Expand Pipe Flows from PA to OH). The project, called the Appalachian Reliability Project (ARP), is designed to move more natural gas from Pennsylvania to Ohio. ARP will leverage existing EGTS pipeline infrastructure while increasing its system capacity through pipeline additions (4 miles of new pipe) and station upgrades. The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) published notices in the July 11 Pennsylvania Bulletin announcing that it has issued water quality permits for the project. Let the construction begin!

HG Energy Washington Co. Pad Leaks Up to 1,000 Barrels of Wastewater -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) reports that the failure of equipment near HG Energy’s WFN-6 shale gas well pad in West Finley Township, Washington County, released an estimated 500 to 1,000 barrels (21,000 to 42,000 gallons) of brine. Discovered by drone on July 8, the spill reportedly began when equipment failed inside a cement vault (connected to a pipeline), causing wastewater to flow downslope toward an unnamed tributary of Robinson Fork Creek. DEP inspectors documented dead and dying vegetation marking the wastewater’s path.

PA Court: Drillers Don’t Have Automatic Surface Rights for Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - An important (precedential) court ruling to alert Pennsylvania surface (and mineral rights) owners to. The Pennsylvania Superior Court ruled earlier this month that an oil-and-gas mineral rights owner does not have an automatic, unrestricted right to place a well on a separately owned surface estate. When the deed or lease contains no express surface-access right, the mineral owner must establish that using that surface is “strictly necessary”—not merely reasonable—to reach and develop the underlying oil and gas. The case in question concerns land in Westmoreland County but will almost certainly apply to other locations as well.

PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - July 18 The following notices were published in the July 18 PA Bulletin related to oil and gas industry facilities. Many of the notices offer the opportunity for public comments.

-- DEP published notice in the July 18 PA Bulletin inviting comments on a Chapter 105 Encroachment Permit application for the PA General Energy Co., LLC Saluda Natural Gas Pipeline, Access Road and Workspace Project in the Loyalsock State Forest in Gamble Township, Lycoming County. (PA Bulletin, page 4291)The permit covers the construction of a 2.18 mile long 16-inch natural gas pipeline and 0.74 mile 12-inch natural gas pipeline and a pipeline metering station in a 50 to 75 foot wide corridor to transfer natural gas from DCNR Tracts 723 and 724 to the point of sale. The project also includes an access road and access road workspace, according to the notice. Read more here.
-- DEP published notice in the July 18 PA Bulletin announcing it has issued the first Title V Air Quality permit for the Tenaska Pennsylvania Partners, LLC 1,065 MW natural gas power plant in South Huntingdon Township, Westmoreland County. The Tenaska Power Plant was issued an initial Air Quality Plan Approval to construct and operate its facility in April 2015 and started operating in December 2018. (PA Bulletin, page 4313) Read more here.
-- DEP published notice in the July 18 PA Bulletin announcing it has issued a Chapter 105 Encroachment Permit to Expand Operating LLC for double 16-inch water pipelines to support shale gas well development in Wysox Township, Bradford County. (PA Bulletin, page 4316) Read more here.
-- DEP published notice in the July 18 PA Bulletin announcing it has issued a Chapter 105 Encroachment Permit to EQT ARO LLC for a 4.1 mile, 16-inch HDPE plastic aboveground shale gas development water pipeline in Cascade Township, Lycoming County. (PA Bulletin, page 4316) Read more here.
-- DEP published notice in the July 18 PA Bulletin announcing it has renewed the Title V Air Quality permit for the Calpine Bethlehem, LLC Natural Gas Power Plant in the City of Bethlehem, Northampton County. (PA Bulletin, page 4312)
-- XTO Energy/Exxon Mobil - Kozik Bros Construction 2 Well: DEP received Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the facility located in Summit Twp., Butler County. (PA Bulletin, page 4308)
-- National Fuel Gas - Tract 007 Compressor Station: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with triethylene glycol and contaminated production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the facility located in Delmar Twp., Tioga County. (PA Bulletin, page 4309)
-- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Ingalls Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP sent Technical Deficiency Letter on the Final Report on remediation of groundwater contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the facility located in Liberty Twp., Tioga County. (PA Bulletin, page 4309)
- WB Lanchester LLC - Lanchester Landfill Gas Facility: DEP renewed a WMGM-55 General Waste Permit for the facility located in Caernarvon Twp., Lancaster County. (PA Bulletin, page 4310)

Air Quality Permits - Issued

-- Pine Run Midstream - Bicker Compressor Station: DEP renewed a GP-5 General Air Quality Permit for the facility located in Winfield Twp., Butler County. (PA Bulletin, page 4311)
-- Snyder Bros Inc. - Ambrose Compressor Station: DEP renewed a GP-5 General Air Quality Permit for the facility located in East Franklin Twp., Armstrong County. (PA Bulletin, page 4311)
-- Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC - Wharton 535 Compressor Station: DEP renewed a Title V Air Quality Permit for the facility located in Wharton Twp., Potter County. (PA Bulletin, page 4312)
-- Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, LLC - Coudersport Compressor Station: DEP renewed Title V Air Quality Permit for the facility located in Hebron Twp., Potter County. (PA Bulletin, page 4312)
-- Peoples Natural Gas LLC - Fisher Compressor Station: DEP renewed State Only Air Quality Permit for the facility located in Redbank Twp., Armstrong County. (PA Bulletin, page 4313)

Individual Stormwater Permits - Comments

-- National Fuel Gas - Pipeline Replacement Project: DEP invites comments on an Individual Stormwater Permit for a project replacing 3,460 feet of 6-inch natural gas line with 8-inch line in Sugarcreek Twp., Armstrong County. (PA Bulletin, page 4273)

Chapter 105 Encroachment Permits - Comments

-- Repsol Oil & Gas USA LLC - Shale Gas Well Pad Extension: DEP invites comments on a Chapter 105 permit for an unnamed shale gas well pad extension impacting Rockwell Creek and wetlands located in Pike Twp., Bradford County. (PA Bulletin, page 4291)

Erosion & Sedimentation Permits - Issued

-- Expand Operating LLC - Unknown Project: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for a project impacting South Branch Towanda Creek located in Monroe Twp., Bradford County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)
-- Coterra Energy Inc. - Unknown Project: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for a project impacting Hop Bottom Creek located in Bridgewater Twp., Susquehanna County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)
-- Appalachia Midstream Services LLC - Unknown Project: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for a project impacting Tuscarora Creek located in Auburn Twp., Susquehanna County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)
-- EQM Gathering OPCO LLC [EQT] - PATMNG130 - Downer Pipeline: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for a pipeline project impacting Shannon Run and Little Shannon Run in Perry Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)
-- CNX Gas Co LLC - Unknown Project: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for a project impacting Tenmile Creek located in Franklin Twp., Washington County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)
-- ETC Northeast Pipeline LLC - Revolution Pipeline: DEP issued a Chapter 102 permit for pipeline repairs impacting multiple streams located in Findlay & Robinson Townships, Allegheny County; Center and Independence & Raccoon Townships, Beaver County; Jackson Twp., Butler County; Chartiers Twp., Washington County. (PA Bulletin, page 4320)

This is a list of conventional oil and gas and shale gas well permits DEP issued from July 4 to 10 by county--

Bradford County -- Tuscarora Twp.: Expand Operating LLC - 1 Shale Gas Permit
Greene County -- Center Twp.: Iron Pennsylvania Land LLC - 1 Conventional Permit

*Click Here to find oil and gas well permits recently issued near you

Bill Stops Left from Using Lawfare to Block PA Permitted Projects -- Marcellus Drilling News - A long-running and favorite tactic of the environmental left is to use our own judicial system against us. On the federal level, foreign-backed groups like the Sierra Club, Earthworks, Food & Water Watch, and others have (in the past) challenged new pipeline or drilling projects, filing appeal after appeal up the line, blocking construction until said lawsuits were resolved. Last June (2025), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) took away the left’s ability to block construction while lawsuits are filed and played out (see FERC Grants Nat’l Waivers Making It Easier to Build NatGas Pipes). It’s time to do the same thing in Pennsylvania.

PA Adopts New Budget Making Utica Shale Wells Easier to Drill - Marcellus Drilling News - On July 12, the Pennsylvania Senate and House passed, and Governor Josh Shapiro signed into law, a $50.84 billion General Fund budget. It was only 12 days late this year. This is a net-positive budget for the Marcellus/Utica industry. It contains no new taxes or fees on production, delivers a long-sought modernization that unlocks the deep Utica play, and builds legal scaffolding favorable to gas-fired power for data centers. The only new obligations — full-cement plugging and (for midstream-adjacent projects) data-center reporting — are modest.

Budget First Look: At Best A Cost To Carry Environmental Budget, Supports Oil & Gas Program Operations, Minor Data Center Provisions But No Moratorium Or Pause, Sales Tax Exemption For Data Centers Stays - On July 12, the Senate and House passed and Gov. Josh Shapiro signed into law a $50.84 billion General Fund budget. There are no new taxes and no transfer from the Rainy Day Fund.The General Fund budget is contained in House Bill 2400 and the related Fiscal Code bill -- Senate Bill 146-- includes relatively minor provisions related to data centers, including language on load forecasting, water and energy use reporting and using advanced transmission line technology. (see House Fiscal Note)No provisions were included to repeal or set conditions for data centers receiving the state sales tax exemption and no pause or moratorium on considering data center proposals reached the Governor’s desk.Separate legislation-- House Bill 2017 (Giral-D-Philadelphia) establishing fees for small modular nuclear power reactors-- was also sent to the Governor meant to encourage this new generation technology. House Fiscal Note & Summary. The Senate did move Senate Bill 1345 (Coleman-R-Lehigh) authorizing a local moratorium on data center applications for up to 18 months that was heavily amended and reported out of the Senate Rules Committee, but it now sits on the Senate Calendar stalled until this fall.Other provisions in the Fiscal Code bill would allocate just over $19 million to pay for the operation of the Oil and Gas Program, but would take the money from nine other programs that regulate waste haulers, regulate sewage facilities planning, support the Chapter 105 permitting program and brownfields reuse, among others. (see House Fiscal Note)Other provisions would establish new, reduced standards to “attainable bottom” for conventional and shale gas wells and sets a few, very general standards for utica and deep shale gas permitting. (see House Fiscal Note)There are also provisions regulating food processing residuals and food processing residuals brokers. (see House Fiscal Note)A new $20 million supplemental appropriation is included for the Hazardous Sites Cleanup Act Program requested by the Governor. (House Budget Summary)County conservation districts and river basin commissions received the same as last year.On the DCNR side, $145 million is transferred from the Oil & Gas Lease Fund to support DCNR staff and operations (see spreadsheet) and in-lieu of tax payments will be paid from Gaming [Gambling] Fund (see House Fiscal Note).m These bills were given final approval by the Senate and House and sent to the Governor--

-- General Fund Budget - House Bill 2400 - Click Here for budget spreadsheet -- House Budget Summary
-- Fiscal Code Bill - Senate Bill 146 -- House Fiscal Note & Summary

Congress Close to Overturning DRBC Ban on Watershed Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News - For the past decade, landowners in Wayne and Pike counties in northeastern Pennsylvania have unfairly been denied the ability to profit from fracking on (and under) their property, simply because they happen to live inside the imaginary boundaries of the Delaware River Basin, an area under the iron hammer control of the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). The DRBC, unlike its counterpart in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRBC), is controlled by left-wingers. They falsely claim that allowing fracking anywhere in the basin would destroy the water supply of 14 million people. Congress is now on the cusp of overturning this ongoing tragedy.

DRBC Alarmed at Potential Loss of Authority to Ban Fracking -- Marcellus Drilling News - The far-left activists who occupy and control the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) are shocked and dismayed that their iron grip on power is slipping away. As we reported yesterday, Congress is close to adopting an amendment to the federal Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) that would block the DRBC and its sister organization, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), from banning hydraulic fracturing (and shale drilling) within their respective jurisdictions (see Congress Close to Overturning DRBC Ban on Watershed Fracking). It’s no skin off SRBC’s nose as that organization has allowed safe shale fracking in its region for nearly two decades. Only the lefties of the DRBC would be affected. And they don’t like it.

Delaware RiverKeeper: Congressional Effort To Overturn Fracking Ban In Delaware River Watershed Died In Committee, This Time -- On July 15, the Delaware RiverKeeper Network reported an amendment aimed at overturning the ban on fracking in the Delaware River Watershed introduced by PA Republican Con. Scott Perry to the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA, H.R. 9497) has died in committee. After quietly developing and circulating an amendment that would have removed the Delaware River ban on fracking and other protections from the industry, in the end, Rep. Perry did not offer the amendment during markup at the July 14 House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. WRDA was approved unanimously by the Committee without Perry’s amendment and will now go before the House of Representatives for consideration. The introduction of the Perry Amendment on June 29 spurred an outpouring of public opposition to this attempt to hijack the WRDA process for a biased, pro-fossil fuel, political agenda. Delaware Riverkeeper Network sounded the alarm with an action alert for calls to be made to House Representatives who serve on the Transportation Committee and whose districts rely on drinking water from the Delaware River. Organizations and individuals from throughout the region responding quickly, shared the alert, and made calls, leading to a flood of concerned people making calls to congressional representatives. The outpouring of public opposition galvanized opposition to the amendment among Committee members. The public action reached its peak on July 14 when the Transportation Committee met for markup of the bill. “This is an amazing success. And I have no doubt that the tremendous mobilization of all of the advocates, organizations and everyday people who care about our River, communities, region, nation and planet are largely responsible for this success,” said Maya van Rossum, the Delaware Riverkeeper. “We saw amazing and swift action in response to the call for action to call our House Representatives. People got on the phone with legislators and one another right away! “We made clear to the members of Congress that the DRBC frack ban was critical for protecting our communities, was based on sound science and was critical for avoiding the devastation we can see playing out elsewhere in the region and nation when fracking for fossil fuels happens. “It’s time for Congress to focus on making clean energy progress and stop cow towing to the fossil fuel industry that cares only about their greedy selves. “This was not just an attack on our communities and environment, but it was an underhanded effort to misappropriate WRDA in order to strip the authority of an independent government agency in order to serve the fossil fuel industry to the detriment of everyone else.” “This sneaky attempt to overturn the Delaware River Basin Commission's Authority to ban fracking throughout the DR Watershed has met a timely death,” said Tracy Carluccio, Deputy Director, Delaware Riverkeeper Network. “But we have no doubt those who advocate for the fracking industry will try again through whatever means they conjure. “Some of our elected officials have made this their mission, which has gained new vigor with the executive orders of President Trump and the actions by federal agencies to gut all major environmental laws and allow fossil fuel development to run rampant, despite the devastating impacts on human health, the environment, and our climate. We all are united to resist any and all efforts to overturn the ban on fracking in the Delaware Watershed,”

It Appears Riverkeeper was Right! Penn LNG is Now Eddystone LNG -- Marcellus Drilling News - A little over two weeks ago, MDN reported that THE Delaware Riverkeeper was sounding the alarm (the perennial “sky is falling” group) that the Penn America LNG export facility had come back to life and is planning a new LNG export project near Philadelphia (see Riverkeeper Claims Dead Philly LNG Project has Come Back to Life). Well, shazam! They were right! At least, according to RBN Energy. What was called Penn LNG, an export facility planned for Chester County, PA (near Philly), is now called Eddystone LNG, planned for Eddystone Borough in Delaware County, PA (also near Philly).

Senate Dems Clash Over States Using Water Permits to Block Pipelines -- Marcellus Drilling News - Poor lefty U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat from Rhode Island). He’s in a bind. Sen. Whitehouse sits on the committee currently negotiating how to loosen up on permitting rules for all sorts of projects, including natural gas pipelines. Whitehouse has traditionally been opposed to natgas pipelines getting built to furnish New England with more gas, but the governor of his own state, along with Dem governors from other New England states, want those pipes (for fear of being tossed out of office if they don’t bring down the price of gas and electricity). But on Whitehouse’s wacko left sit Massachusetts Senators Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren and Ed “wacky” Markey, who are 100% opposed to changing the rules for pipelines. Also opposing a change are foreign-backed environmental groups (big contributors to Whitehouse). What’s poor Sheldon going to do?

Energy Transfer Seeks to Split Sunoco Pipeline into 2 Companies - Marcellus Drilling News - -Energy Transfer has asked the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) to restructure and dissolve the Sunoco Pipeline Company, separating its pipeline assets between two new entities. Energy Transfer NE NGL Pipelines LLC would own and operate the Mariner East system and other natural gas liquids pipelines, while Energy Transfer RP Pipelines LLC would control refined petroleum product pipelines. The proposal also would transfer Sunoco’s public utility operating certificates. Formal protests and intervention petitions are due July 27, 2026

Activist Investors Say Devon Energy Too Slow with Asset Sales - Marcellus Drilling News -- In early May, Devon Energy completed its buyout of and merger with Coterra Energy, paying $21.4 billion in Devon stock (see Devon and Coterra Complete Merger, Launches $8B Buyback Program). After the merger, Devon CEO Clay Gaspar said his company was reviewing all of the combined assets with a view toward optimizing its portfolio. There was no specific timeline announced for the review, but analysts generally expected it to take up to a year. However, in comments made in June, Gaspar said the review would be “a month’s exercise, not a year’s exercise” (see Devon Energy CEO: Asset Review to Finish in Months, Not a Year). That's still not fast enough for activist investor Kimmeridge, which is pushing Devon to divest NOW.

SC PSC Won’t Reconsider Its Approval of Edisto River Gas-Fired Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News - In June, members of the South Carolina Public Service Commission (PSC) approved a revised project proposal to build a 1,020-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in the state’s Lowcountry, in Colleton County (see SC PSC Approves Revised Gas-Fired Plant Proposed for Edisto River). The project, originally estimated to cost $2.5 billion, is a 50/50 partnership between Dominion Energy (formerly South Carolina Electric & Gas) and Santee Cooper (South Carolina’s state-owned electric and water utility). The plant location is at the retired coal-fired plant, Canadys Station. However, both the scope and the cost doubled last fall (see Dominion’s SC Canadys Gas-Fired Power Plant Doubles in Price). The PSC approved the doubled size/cost of the project in June. Their approval set off a firestorm of legal actions.

If You Build It – Will Increased Natural Gas Demand and New Pipelines Spur Higher Northeast Output? | RBN Energy - Demand for natural gas in the Northeast regional market and pipeline capacity out of Appalachia are expected to grow in the coming years as more coal plants retire and more data centers come online, but will production necessarily follow suit? Even if market conditions improve, it’s not a done deal. Operators in the region remain largely focused on capital discipline rather than chasing incremental volumes. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at which producers are best positioned to grow if conditions warrant.Today’s blog is part of our broader Northeast natural gas series and marks a shift from pipelines and other infrastructure to producers and where growth might — or might not — show up. We’ve already taken an in‑depth look at new pipeline capacity and the potential impact of new data centers on the Northeast gas market, but we can’t promise a “Field of Dreams” outcome. Just because pipeline capacity is being added doesn’t mean significant new production will automatically follow. On paper, added pipeline capacity and rising demand could support more output, but there’s still plenty of market skepticism about whether producers will deviate from the current strategy to focus on growth. Appalachia has had several years of flat production growth averaging around 33 to 36 Bcf/d since 2020 for a number of reasons, with almost all their drilled wells in either northeastern Pennsylvania or the southwestern Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia/eastern Ohio area (see Figure 1 below). Capital discipline has been the dominant theme, as most producers have prioritized investor demands for free cash flow over growth for its own sake.One of the biggest requirements for higher production is a long-term price signal, rather than a brief spike during winter or a weekend storm. Producers in Appalachia focus on the prices they actually receive, like Dominion and other localized basin benchmarks, not just Henry Hub. When the long‑dated Henry Hub curve sits at its current range of $3.50-$3.60/MMBtu, many producers are not interested in growing, but a sustained move above $4/MMBtu for at least a year could start to change that, depending on the operator.Another major factor is takeaway and supporting infrastructure, which limits the region’s growth potential. Parts of Appalachia still lack the basic pipes and facilities needed to move and treat gas, and producers also need processing plants, water disposal and other services in place. For now, many companies have chosen to focus on strengthening balance sheets, paying down debt, and returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks instead of chasing production growth. If circumstances in the region’s gas market change, most of the increased volumes are likely to come from today’s top producers, as smaller producers are unlikely to have much of an impact on the overall market even with an aggressive growth strategy.In this discussion, we are focused on E&Ps that already produce at least 1 Bcf/d in Appalachia, starting with the biggest, EQT Corp. (Note that Figure 1 shows drilled wells and Figure 2 shows remaining inventory.)

EQT Corp. (purple areas in Figure 1 above and Figure 2 below), a giant Appalachia‑focused gas producer based in Pittsburgh, could really move the needle on regional production if it chose to focus on growth. EQT is producing around 6.4 Bcf/d across Appalachia, with around 4.3 Bcf/d from Marcellus wells in southwestern Pennsylvania. It has a large position in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, along with ample drilling inventory and meaningful midstream access, so even a small percentage increase in its output would translate into big volumes on the ground. For now, though, EQT is not signaling a push for massive growth. In its Q1 2026 earnings call, the company emphasized capital discipline, returns and making the most of existing assets rather than ramping up volumes just because new demand or pipeline projects appear.
Expand Energy (dark-blue areas in Figures 1 and 2), with corporate offices in Houston and Oklahoma City, has the scale and capacity to grow, but there are real questions about whether it would choose to grow significantly in the Northeast, where it is already producing around 6.3 Bcf/d gross. Its operations span major positions in both Appalachia and the Haynesville, and recent guidance calls for 2026 production of roughly 7.5 Bcfe/d net on a capital program of about $2.85 billion. For now, it appears Expand is more likely to lean into growth in the Haynesville and treat its Northeast Marcellus and Utica assets as a cash cow rather than an engine for new drilling. But in its Q1 2026 earnings, Chairman Michael Wichterich said: “Our Appalachia assets sit at the core of AI power demand. … That, of course, can come from the Northeast. … So more gas will have to come from Appalachia.”
Range Resources Corp. (green areas in Figures 1 and 2), based in Fort Worth, TX, is a clear exception among Appalachian gas producers because it has a stated multi‑year growth plan. Company guidance and recent earnings show Range is roughly halfway through a three‑year program that will boost production from about 2.2 Bcfe/d in 2025 toward 2.6 Bcfe/d by 2027, with 2026 volumes guided at roughly 2.35-2.4 Bcfe/d. That makes Range the one larger public name in the basin with explicit, extended growth ambitions. In its Q1 2026 earnings call, CEO Dennis Degner said: “Range is off to a great start in 2026, showing steady progress executing the multi‑year disciplined growth plan we announced last year.”
Houston-based Devon Energy (red areas in Figures 1 and 2) produces about 2 Bcf/d from Marcellus assets it acquired via the Coterra Energy merger earlier this year. Those assets have reportedly attracted an approximately $8 billion bid from Stone Ridge Asset Management and are now widely discussed as a potential divestiture candidate, though Devon has not yet committed to a sale. The asset does not appear to be a natural fit with Devon’s portfolio. It has been flat for many years and has struggled to consistently compete for capital in predecessor Coterra’s portfolio and is likely to face the same challenges in the combined Devon portfolio.
Antero Resources (yellow areas in Figures 1 and 2), headquartered in Denver, produces roughly 4.0–4.1 Bcfe/d, with natural gas accounting for well over half of that volume. Antero’s HG Energy acquisition, which was announced in December 2025 and closed in February, added roughly 385,000 net acres and more than 400 high‑royalty locations to its Appalachian portfolio. Much of the acreage acquired from HG consists of many sections without existing horizontals, leaving the viability of incremental inventory more unproven.
CNX Resources (brown areas in Figures 1 and 2), based in Canonsburg, PA, is a relatively smaller producer with a deep Marcellus and Utica inventory — though it doesn’t reach the point of its larger peers. Aggressive production growth does not appear to fit its current strategy. In recent years, the company has mostly maintained flat output, following a disciplined model of drilling roughly 30 wells per year. CNX is producing about 1.7 Bcfe/d overall and around about 1.57 Bcf/d of gas in Appalachia. The E&P controls approximately 9.7 Tcfe of proved reserves and more than 1 million net acres across its Appalachia gas plays, providing decades of development runway. On CNX’s Q1 2026 earnings call, CEO Alan Shepard said the company “certainly [sees] the same sort of long-term optimism on the demand side” and described some recently announced power and data center projects as “mind-boggling.” He noted that the scale of anticipated in-basin gas demand “is going to need to be sourced by multiple producers.”
Seneca Resources Co. (light-blue areas in Figures 1 and 2) is more of a smaller-but-interesting name than a basin‑shaker. If Seneca chose to grow, it would be adding far less absolute volumes into the market than the larger players. Seneca is producing on the order of 1-1.25 Bcf/d in Appalachia. The Houston-based company holds a good chunk of remaining inventory in central Pennsylvania, but that inventory sits in an area that still lacks the gathering, processing and other infrastructure that make it easy to convert locations into production. Seneca is owned by National Fuel Gas Co., which has also signaled it prefers stable returns and low-volatility cash flows over ramping up drilling. That suggests Seneca is more likely to be a steady contributor rather than a massive driver of new growth.
Ascent Resources, a privately held producer headquartered in Oklahoma City, is focused on the Ohio Utica and is currently expected to average 2.1 -2.2 Bcfe/d this year. Gulfport Energy, also based in Oklahoma City, is another Utica‑based company in Appalachia and the Anadarko basins, but its Appalachia volumes are also well below those of EQT and Expand. We don’t see either firm making massive organic growth moves, but we’re definitely watching them both.

The picture that emerges is one of an Appalachian gas sector with plenty of capacity for growth, but a preference for discipline and stability. Most large producers have deep, high‑quality inventories and could add significant volume if prices, pipes and in‑basin demand all line up, yet their current strategies emphasize balance sheet strength, shareholder returns and careful pacing over aggressive expansion.

U.S. Ethane-to-Henry Hub Ratio Climbs for a Third Straight Month | RBN Energy -The U.S. ethane-to-Henry Hub ratio is averaging 111% so far for July 2026 (red bar), 4 percentage points above June's 107% average and 6 percentage points above the 105% average for the same month last year. Ethane is averaging about 23¢/gal so far for July, while Henry Hub natural gas is averaging about $3/MMBtu. The ratio has increased for three consecutive months and now stands modestly above year-ago levels.

New Pipeline Supply, LNG Outages Pressure Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices - Kinder Morgan's Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America (NGPL) has stepped up natural gas deliveries toward Louisiana after bringing its Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project to full service, adding supply pressure to Henry Hub spot prices.Entropic Analytics chart compares Henry Hub natural gas prices with NGPL flows east of Station 302 from May to July 2026, highlighting higher pipeline throughput as prices ease. At a Glance:
NGPL project adds Henry Hub supply
Henry Hub spot falls below $3
LNG outages compound price pressure

Delfin Advances FLNG2 With MidOcean Deal, Early Equipment Order -Delfin Midstream took a key step toward the targeted final investment decision (FID) of its second floating LNG (FLNG) vessel offshore the Louisiana coast with a tentative equity agreement and procurement order. Map of the Delfin LNG offshore export project in the Gulf of America showing the UTOS Pipeline, FLNG vessels and planned future development area off Louisiana. At a Glance:
Delfin targets FLNG2 year-end FID
MidOcean could acquire 50% interest
Siemens tapped for early procurement

Argent LNG Adds Naftogaz to Tentative Customer Lineup -- Argent LNG has signed a tentative agreement with Ukraine’s Naftogaz Group aimed at shipping US LNG supply as the project developer ramps up commercialization efforts of the proposed Louisiana export project. At a Glance:

Framework targets neighboring markets too
Naftogaz expands access to US LNG
Argent targets first cargo in 2030

Golden Pass, Sabine Pass Flow Shifts Complicate US LNG Feedgas Outlook Commissioning setbacks at Golden Pass LNG and a temporary reshuffling of pipeline supply into Sabine Pass have added another layer of volatility to US feedgas nominations as extended maintenance at Freeport LNG weighs on the summer balance.Entropic Analytics chart comparing Golden Pass and Sabine Pass LNG feedgas nominations from May to July 2026, highlighting changing feedgas flows at both Gulf Coast export terminals. At a Glance:
Golden Pass intake remains down 40%
Sabine Pass reroutes around Transco halt
Freeport recovery trails maintenance baseline

US LNG Feedgas Turns Volatile Beyond Freeport Maintenance -Already bearish signals from US LNG feedgas demand weighing on summer prices have continued to fluctuate as operational trips during Freeport LNG’s expected maintenance and swings at Golden Pass LNG further cloud a fall in nominations. At a Glance:
Brief Freeport trips deepen volatility
Golden Pass flaring raises uncertainty
US LNG feedgas falls by 1.5 Bcf/d

U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Drops | RBN Energy - Total U.S. LNG feedgas demand was down sharply last week, with lower intake at Freeport, Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi and Calcasieu Pass. Feedgas demand averaged 17.9 Bcf/d for the week ending July 12 (see blue dotted line below), down 0.73 Bcf/d week-on-week, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly report. The largest week-on-week decline came from Freeport, where Train 3 tripped offline because of an issue at the pretreatment facility on July 9. The train still appears to be offline. Intake at Sabine Pass was reduced on July 7-8 because of scheduled maintenance on the Creole Trail pipeline. Feedgas recovered after work on the Gillis Compressor Station concluded, but intake at the terminal remains lackluster. Intake at Golden Pass was down slightly last week. Feedgas to the commissioning terminal was above 0.5 Bcf/d from July 1-9, before dropping. Feedgas at the terminal appears to be slowly creeping higher, but is still not at the expected 0.8 Bcf/d that would indicate Train 1 was at full operations.

Freeport LNG Trains Trip Offline, Sending Feedgas to Summer Low - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

17.2 Bcf/d: US LNG feedgas demand steadied slightly Thursday after sliding to a six-week low midweek. Nominations landed at 17.2 Bcf/d, according to NGI's Entropic Analytics data. Thursday’s nominations from the previous day evening cycle posted a slight day/day recovery from Wednesday's 16.6 Bcf/d. US feedgas demand dropped to its lowest point since June 2 and held below the seven-day average of 17.6 Bcf/d, marking a 1 Bcf/d decrease from the week prior. The market was previously anticipating maintenance at terminals like Freeport LNG until August, but flows have fluctuated further due to unplanned outages.
0.15 Bcf/d: Further weighing on natural gas futures, feedgas nominations to Freeport LNG collapsed to their lowest level of the summer after all three of the terminal's liquefaction trains tripped offline early Wednesday. Freeport engineers told Texas regulators that Trains 1, 2 and 3 tripped because of an incoming power feed interruption, forcing unplanned venting to the plant's liquefaction flare for eight hours starting in the morning. Interstate pipeline deliveries to the facility fell to about 0.15 Bcf/d for the Wednesday gas day, down from roughly 1.13 Bcf/d Tuesday, according to NGI's Entropic Analytics data. The terminal previously drew average daily feedgas nominations of 1.95 Bcf/d over July 1-6 before the turnaround began.
2.38 Mt: Weekly US LNG exports rose in the week ended July 12 to around 2.38 Mt, according to Kpler data. The trade period marked a 9% rebound from the prior week's 2.19 Mt, which was the second lowest week of US exports since the beginning of summer. The weekly results extended a choppy stretch, with terminals sending out 2.72 Mt in the week of June 22 and 2.22 Mt in the week of June 15. The latest total was roughly in line with the prior three-week average, recovering some of the ground lost the week before. US exports were about 26% higher than the same week in 2025. Asia led all destinations during the week at 1.09 Mt, ahead of Europe's roughly 0.72 Mt.
$23,250/day: The premium for Atlantic LNG carriers shipping US LNG has risen to $23,250/day over Pacific vessels this week, with rates in both basins holding relatively steady, according to Spark Commodities. The vessel pricing firm assessed Atlantic rates at $97,000/day for the Jul. 31-Aug. 30 delivery window Thursday, down $2,000 from the prior assessment, while the Pacific rate eased $500 to $73,750/day. The freight gap is compounded on the longer haul to Asia, where NGI calculations as of Wednesday put total shipping costs from Sabine Pass at around $2.20/MMBtu for August deliveries. The Sabine Pass to Asia curve was nearly double the roughly $1.18 to reach Europe's Gate terminal, compounded by Panama Canal costs and port fees. Stronger JKM forwards still kept the total arbitrage spread to Asia at $11.248/MMBtu for August against $13.672 to Europe, with the Asian arb flipping to a premium from September onward.

Glenfarne Lands Investment for Early Work on Texas LNG Ahead of FID -- Glenfarne Group has secured a $500 million investment for its Texas LNG project from an affiliate of BlackRock. At a Glance:

FID closer with deal
Debt financing also secured
Project fully subscribed

Texas LNG Receives $500 Million as FID Nears - Texas LNG secured a $500 million investment led by HPS Investment Partners to advance engineering and early construction work at its Brownsville export terminal as the project moves toward final investment decision. (P&GJ) — Texas LNG has secured a $500 million investment led by funds and accounts managed by HPS Investment Partners, part of BlackRock, providing financing to advance development and early construction activities at the company's proposed LNG export terminal in Brownsville, Texas. The funding will support engineering, procurement and site work as the project moves closer to a final investment decision (FID). According to Glenfarne, the investment represents one of the final milestones before the project reaches FID. The financing will also support the recently announced limited notice to proceed (LNTP) issued to Kiewit under the project's lump-sum turnkey engineering, procurement and construction contract. Initial work includes procurement of long-lead equipment, EPC engineering activities and geotechnical investigations. Vlad Bluzer, co-president of Texas LNG and partner at Glenfarne, said the investment demonstrates the project's readiness to move into the next phase of development. Texas LNG is planned for the Port of Brownsville and is designed to use electric motor drives to reduce emissions associated with LNG production. The project is part of Glenfarne's North American LNG development portfolio, which totals 32.8 MMtpy of planned liquefaction capacity across projects in Alaska, Louisiana and Texas.

Corpus Christi LNG Train 7 Cleared to Introduce Fuel Gas by FERC -- FERC has authorized Corpus Christi Liquefaction to introduce fuel gas and hot oil into Midscale Train 7, marking another commissioning milestone for Cheniere's Stage 3 LNG expansion in Texas. (Reuters) — A U.S. energy regulator on July 17 approved Corpus Christi Liquefaction's (CCL) request to introduce fuel gas and hot oil into Midscale Train 7, a further step toward getting the last train of the company's Stage 3 Project into service. The Stage 3 expansion of U.S. liquefied natural gas company Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG export plant in Texas consists of seven midscale liquefaction trains designed to add over 10 million tons of production capacity per year. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission added that CCL must comply with all applicable remaining terms and conditions, as well as procedures stipulated in its previous filings. The approval does not grant CCL the authority to construct, commission, or introduce hazardous fluids to other project facilities at the LNG terminal, the U.S. regulator said.

LNG Exports Could Add $1.4 Trillion to U.S. GDP by 2040, Study Finds -U.S. LNG exports could generate $1.4 trillion in economic output through 2040, with new projections pointing to significant investment, rising feedgas demand and growing global market share. (Reuters) — Liquefied natural gas is poised to become the United States' second-largest net export industry within five years, adding nearly $1.4 trillion to its gross domestic product through 2040, according to an S&P Global Energy study. In 2025, the country became the first to export more than 100 million metric tons of LNG in one year, as new plants helped production.

The S&P study forecast total investments across the U.S. LNG supply chain to exceed $1 trillion through 2040, with a funding surge after the lifting of last year's export "pause."
It estimated LNG export to generate $2.9 trillion in revenue, $206 billion of taxes and nearly $630 billion in labor income.
It projected a 1.6% rise in domestic average household gas costs between 2026 and 2031.
The export surge is set to double feedgas demand to 36 billion cubic feet per day by 2031, the report said.
U.S. LNG can account for a third of the global market in five years, it added.
Prices in Europe and Asia could jump by 50% if the new U.S. export capacity is not realized, the study predicted.
It added that U.S. LNG exports could help stabilize domestic markets during peak demand, while infrastructure constraints remain the main driver of regional price volatility.

US natgas hits six-week low on higher output and lower demand outlook (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a six-week low on Monday on rising output, forecasts for less demand than previously expected, and a decline in flows to liquefied natural gas export plants during maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas. That gas price decline was offset by a roughly 9% jump in oil futures due to supply worries after the U.S. said it would reimpose a blockade on Iran's ports. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $2.897 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 26 for a third day in a row. That also put the front-month down for four days in a row for the first time since mid-April and kept it in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since mid-April. For the year, futures for calendar 2027 NGCALYZ7 fell to $3.36 per mmBtu, their lowest since February 2022. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but still below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. They projected the amount of gas in inventories held at 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 10, the same as the previous week. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 28, keeping the amount of gas power generators burn high as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 110.2 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.6 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but remain below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April. That increase in average LNG feedgas came despite the reduction in flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas for planned work from July 10 to late August.

Market Watch: Middle East War Fails to Boost US Gas Futures - August gas futures inched 0.7¢ higher Tuesday to $2.904 per million Btu. “Escalating Middle East tensions have lifted global energy prices, but Henry Hub has struggled to benefit because the immediate US balance remains comfortable,” Gelber & Associates said. A sizable storage cushion, milder late-July weather expectations, and reduced LNG demand during terminal maintenance are keeping sellers in control. … Without a more durable increase in cooling demand or a faster recovery in export flows, the international supply shock remains more of a volatility risk than a direct source of physical tightening for the domestic market.”

US natgas prices edge up as heat wave lifts power demand for air conditioning (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Wednesday as a heat wave blanketed the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, boosting power generator demand for gas to keep air conditioners humming. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.924 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Meteorologists forecast temperatures would top 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius) in many parts of the country on Wednesday, including New York and Chicago. That forecast compares with normal highs of around 85 F in both cities at this time of year, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. As homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat, next-day power prices at the PJM Western Hub jumped 178% to around $420 per megawatt hour. The PJM Western Hub is located mostly in western Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia/Maryland metro area. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 110.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but has remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, they projected the amount of gas in storage eased to 6.4% above normal during the week ended July 10, down from 6.6% during the previous week. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 30, forcing power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 111.1 bcfd this week to 110.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 17.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but have remained below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a five-week low of 16.8 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to a reduction in flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas for planned work from July 10 to late August. In other LNG news, the Al Fat'h LNG tanker was on track to reach China on July 16 with a load of fuel from U.S. energy firm Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana. The vessel left the U.S. in early June. So far, no LNG tanker has left a U.S. export plant and gone directly to China during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, which started in January 2025, due primarily to trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies. China, which imported a large amount of U.S. gas in the past and has many contracts to buy U.S. LNG, is the world's biggest gas importer, while the U.S. is the world's biggest gas producer, consumer and exporter. Chinese companies have bought U.S. LNG and then sold it to buyers in other countries.

USA EIA Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast for 2026, 2027 | Rigzone -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Henry Hub natural gas spot price projection for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month. According to its July STEO, which was published on July 7 and completed its forecast on July 1, the EIA now sees Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaging $3.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this year and $3.49 per MMBtu next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in June, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price would come in at $3.60 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.46 per MMBtu in 2027. A quarterly breakdown included in its latest STEO showed that the EIA sees the commodity averaging $3.37 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2026, $3.57 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.83 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $2.99 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.36 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.78 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price would come in at $3.22 per MMBtu in the third quarter of this year, $3.47 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.78 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2027, $2.97 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.34 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.76 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. “Natural gas inventories remain above the five-year average through much of our forecast, helping limit upward price pressures,” the EIA said in its July STEO. “Inventories remain relatively high because we expect record natural gas production, led by growth in the Permian region, to help meet rising demand,” it added. At the end of June, U.S. working natural gas inventories were six percent above the five-year average, the EIA highlighted in its latest STEO. “We forecast U.S. working natural gas inventories will reach 3,966 billion cubic feet (Bcf) by the end of October, five percent above the five-year average,” the EIA said in the STEO. “With above average inventories heading into winter, we expect the Henry Hub spot price in 4Q26 will average $3.57 per million British thermal units, which is five percent less than the same quarter last year,” it added. “On the back of strong demand growth next year, we expect the inventory surplus to the five-year average will narrow to one percent at the end of October 2027,” it continued. “Henry Hub prices in 4Q27 average $3.78 per MMBtu in our forecast, up six percent from 4Q26. For 2027 as a whole, we expect the Henry Hub price will average just under $3.50 per MMBtu, down slightly from an average of close to $3.60 per MMBtu in 2025 and 2026,” it went on to state. In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, outlined that “milder weather” was undermining near-term fundamentals in natural gas. “The August contract tested as low as $2.847 yesterday [Monday] before recovering, but notable weather weakening over the past 24 hours for Weeks 2 and 3 - particularly over the central and eastern U.S. - may further undermine physical support in late July,” Rubin said in the report. “In the immediate term, national daily CDDs may peak tomorrow [Wednesday] at 15.2 CDDs - with severe heat ranging from the Midwest through Mid-Atlantic - before subsiding,” he added. “Henry Hub spot gas prices cleared at just $2.81 per million British thermal units yesterday. Technicals suggest support may crumble into the low-$2.80s per MMBtu,” he continued. In the report, Rubin warned that, “if weather weakens more, LNG stays subdued, and production rises, further downside may be ahead for NYMEX gas in mid-to-late summer”. The EBW report highlighted that the August natural gas contract closed at $2.897 per MMBtu on Monday. This marked a 4.3 cent, or 1.5 percent, decrease from Friday’s close, the report outlined.

US refiner margins hit new records as fuel shortage concerns grow (Reuters) - U.S. refiner margins registered a fresh record high for the third consecutive session on Thursday, as low stockpiles and worsening tensions in the Middle East threaten potential supply shortfalls in the world's largest fuel consuming nation. U.S. refiners have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Iran war as international buyers have clamored for their supplies, pushing the country's fuel exports to record highs. As a result, however, domestic fuel stockpiles have dropped and lifted fuel prices sharply, weighing on consumer budgets in the peak summer driving season and posing potential problems for farmers in the country's Midwest. The 3-2-1 crack spread, the most widely used benchmark for U.S. refiner profitability, rose over 2% to close at $69.66 a barrel, a record high. The spread, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, is used by refiners as a hedging instrument to lock in their profit margins. Diesel, the biggest portion of global oil consumption, has been the primary driver of U.S. refiner economics in recent months. Inventories of the industrial fuel had been tight for years due to refinery closures in the West, and disruptions to Middle Eastern exports from the Iran war made the market tighter before a temporary ban to Russian exports announced this month exacerbated the global diesel shortage even more. U.S. diesel stockpiles rose 4.5 million barrels last week to over 102 million barrels, but were still nearly 11 million barrels below the level recorded on February 27 and about 8 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. [EIA/S] Gasoline supplies, meanwhile, are becoming a growing cause of concern as U.S. and global refiners have lowered output of the motor fuel in favor of higher diesel and jet fuel yields. The supply-demand imbalance has pulled U.S. gasoline stockpiles down more sharply than diesel since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, slapping U.S. motorists with sticker shocks. U.S. gasoline inventories fell over 1.5 million barrels to 210.5 million barrels in the week ended July 10, down over 42 million barrels since the week ended February 27 and some 14 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average, EIA data showed. The motor fuel stockpile is the lowest for this time of year since 2012, the EIA data showed. U.S. national average retail gasoline prices stood at $3.95 a gallon on Thursday, up nearly 80 cents from the same time last year, data from GasBuddy showed. Prices had surged to as high as $4.56 per gallon in May due to disruptions to Middle East oil exports resulting from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the data showed. Gasoline prices are among the most visible inflationary indicators for U.S. consumers, making the price surge a political anathema for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has accused oil companies of price-gouging, without providing evidence. Analysts say even more pain may be in store for U.S. motorists before refiners turn their attention to gasoline. "Encouraging refiners to revert to max-gasoline mode will require higher gasoline prices at retail and wholesale levels as well as increased margins relative to other fuels," London-based independent oil analyst John Kemp wrote to subscribers on Thursday. U.S. gasoline crack spread settled at about $59 a barrel on Thursday, a level last reached in June 2022. The diesel crack spread settled at over $91 a barrel, a record high.

Cushing Crude Inventories Near ‘Tank Bottom’ Operating Levels, EIA Says - As Cushing crude inventories approach minimum operating levels, EIA explains how "tank bottoms" can tighten available storage and influence oil market pricing. (P&GJ) — Crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub have fallen below 20 million barrels in recent weeks, prompting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to explain how "tank bottoms" can affect storage operations and market pricing. According to EIA, storage tanks require a minimum volume of crude oil to remain operational. Known as tank bottoms, this inventory allows pumps and related infrastructure to function properly. Once inventories approach these minimum operating levels, not all stored crude is readily accessible, even though tanks are not technically empty. Tank bottoms also distinguish working storage capacity from shell capacity. While shell capacity represents a facility's total design volume, working capacity reflects the usable storage available after accounting for the minimum inventory needed to keep the system operating safely. As Cushing inventories dipped below 20 million barrels between June 19 and July 10, the price spread between Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) narrowed sharply, briefly turning negative. EIA said the unusually strong WTI price suggests inventories may be approaching tank-bottom levels, tightening available storage capacity and contributing to stronger regional crude prices. EIA noted that petroleum storage facilities generally cannot draw inventories to zero because operators must maintain minimum working volumes. As a result, a facility may still contain crude oil but be unable to deliver additional supply if inventories fall to the bottom of its working storage capacity.

The U.S. is maxing out its strategic oil reserves as Trump vows to control the Strait of Hormuz - President Donald Trump made a new push Monday to exert more control over the Strait of Hormuz, a global oil chokepoint that is over 7,000 miles from the U.S.The tensions come as a fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal has been unraveling, and as another crisis brews closer to home: U.S. emergency crude-oil reserves now sit at their lowest levels since the 1980s, and are plagued by aging infrastructure.Following failed attempts to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Monday that the U.S. should run the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway located between Iran and Oman, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean.“We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it,” Trump said in a morning interview with Fox News. “And we should be reimbursed for that.” Later in the day, Trump made threats to strike Iran on Monday evening and potentially Tuesday in an interview on “The Hugh Hewitt Show.” Soon after, the U.S. Central Command announced it had launched strikes against Iran for the third consecutive night.The president’s comments come as the U.S.-Iran conflict has dragged on far longer than the White House initially outlined, at more than four months and counting. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been racing to offset a global oil shock it helped instigate by yanking supplies from the national Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR.With the strait seeing only limited maritime traffic in recent days, and with the U.S. economy still going strong and in the middle of travel season, “we might witness a further collapse in strategic and commercial reserves,” which could lead to even higher prices for oil, said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com.Crude-oil stocks in the SPR — a program created in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s to deal with shortages of crude — fell to 319.5 million barrels as of the week ended July 3. That’s the lowest since 1983, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Releases of oil from the SPR helped offset supply lost to transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. Back in March, the U.S. authorized the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR over a period of about 120 days, as part of the International Energy Agency’s agreement to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members’ emergency reserves.In a review of the U.S. Energy Department’s management of the SPR, released to the public in late June, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) said Congress and the Energy Department lacked a unified long-term plan for the SPR, while pointing to aging infrastructure, leaks, structural problems and spills. The GAO said the SPR experienced 16 major equipment failures since 2013. In January of this year, nearly 170 barrels of crude spilled at one facility in Texas due to a split in a crude pipe. The GAO recommended that Congress temporarily limit nonemergency sales from the reserve and authorize a funding mechanism to help the Energy Department cover ongoing or periodic costs for maintaining the SPR. But the global oil market remains in an emergency situation, with the Strait of Hormuz now only seeing the passage of a small number of ships. Before the war, about 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade transited through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be reopened following the latest U.S.-Iran cease-fire signed in mid-June, but maritime traffic through the waterway never fully returned to normal operations.Six tankers crossed through the strait Sunday without their automatic identification systems on, according to data from Kpler — with two entering and four exiting the waterway. That compares with an average of 25 over the seven days prior to that, Kpler said. Sizing studies done on the SPR in the 1970s recommended an inventory minimum of 250 million barrels. The reserve can hold up to 727 million barrels. So, if the congressionally mandated minimum is at about 250 million barrels and there are just over 300 million barrels left in the SPR, the U.S. possibly could release 1 million barrels per day for 60 days, or 2 million barrels a day for 30 days, noted Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “Then what?” Lynch asked. “Trump could ignore the law,” he told MarketWatch — but operationally, going below 250 million barrels can create technical problems. “Trump appears to have trouble parsing the complex nature of the oil market.”

Seaway Export Slowdown Signals SPR Release Program Is Winding Down -As discussed in this week's Crude Voyager, despite U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports rebounding for the week ended July 10, activity at Houston's Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City terminals weakened. This divergence from the broader export recovery is notable because both terminals have been closely linked to the recent Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release program. Since early April, increased loadings from the Seaway system closely tracked the acceleration in SPR withdrawals, suggesting that barrels originating from the Bryan Mound storage site were being moved through the Seaway pipeline network for export. As discussed previously, while the Department of Energy (DOE) does not disclose the final destination of individual SPR cargoes, the strong correlation between rising Seaway exports and record SPR drawdowns has made these terminals a clear indicator of emergency crude entering the export market. At the peak of the War in Iran, an average of 500 Mb/d was loaded between Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City, contributing to a surge in total 2026 volumes to above 20 MMbbl (blue bar in chart above). However, this rampant export schedule has recently dwindled, as last week was the third consecutive week with no loadings recorded out of Seaway Freeport. Additionally, only one vessel has loaded out of Seaway Texas City in the last two weeks. The slowdown at both Seaway terminals suggests that this source of incremental export supply is beginning to fade. As discussed in our Crude Billboard, the Department of Energy committed to release up to 172 MMbbl of crude as part of the broader 400 MMbbl coordinated International Energy Agency (IEA) emergency response to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the authorization covers up to 172 MMbbl, the DOE is not obligated to release the full amount, and may choose not to if market conditions have stabilized. Through the week ended July 3, approximately 96 MMbbl, or 56% of the authorized U.S. volume, have been released.The recent slowdown in Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City loadings aligns with both the expected conclusion of the approximately 120-day release window (mid-March through mid-July) of SPR barrels, and the retracement in crude prices from the triple-digit levels that prompted the unprecedented drawdown to the recent $70/bbl-$80/bbl range. If Seaway export activity continues to soften in the coming weeks, it would provide another indication that SPR releases have transitioned from a meaningful source of U.S. Gulf Coast export supply back toward more typical crude flows, reducing one of the key factors that supported elevated export volumes throughout the second quarter.

The US oil reserve is at a 40-year low — but the government says there’s still plenty of breathing room - Commodity experts on Wall Street have long been fixated on the risks associated with U.S. emergency crude-oil supplies running too low. The Department of Energy says they’ve got it all wrong.The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world’s largest publicly known supply of emergency crude oil, has fallen to a more-than-40-year low. That’s set off alarm bells on Wall Street.With U.S. commercial crude inventories and supplies in the SPR falling again last week, there’s “less breathing room” in terms of supplies at a time of “intense global uncertainty,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, in emailed commentary. “The SPR draws can’t continue forever.”The SPR was authorized by Congress to hold up to 714 million barrels and it’s down to less than half that, at 316.5 million barrels as of the week ended July 10, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday.Stockpiles were down 3 million barrels from a week earlier and at the lowest level since 1983 for the SPR, which was established in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s to deal with crude shortages. A slowdown in oil imports from China and a rapid initial drawdown in U.S. emergency reserves have been credited with keeping global crude prices below $100 a barrel, but America’s crude stockpiles have been dwindling since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February. The U.S. in March authorized the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the reserve over a period of about 120 days. Even so, today’s lower reserve levels may not as tight as market experts think. The oil industry has generally accepted that the operational minimum for oil in the SPR, a point at which it would be more difficult to pump out the oil, is somewhere between 250 million and 300 million barrels. Meanwhile, sizing studies done on the SPR in the 1970s recommended an inventory minimum of 250 million barrels. An Energy Department statement to MarketWatch on Wednesday indicated that the industry assertion of a “minimum operating level” of 250 million barrels is incorrect. This comes as the U.S.-Iran cease-fire agreement from June has collapsed in recent days. President Donald Trump wants to exert more control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and on Wednesday evening another round of U.S. military strikes took place against Iran. Meanwhile, the Energy Department said the SPR’s minimum inventory is determined by “cavern mechanics” that when applied across the full system translates to a “conservative operational minimum of about 70 million barrels,” the DOE spokesperson said. That may leave more to spare for emergencies — around 246 million barrels, according to the DOE’s latest estimates. That 70 million barrels might be the minimum operation levels based on technical considerations, but the DOE seems to “assume optimal operations,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. He thinks it’s likely to become more difficult to extract the remaining oil in the reserve as the market gets closer to the minimums. And the lower the SPR gets, the more traders are going to “worry that oil will not be available, even if the technical minimum hasn’t been reached,” said Lynch.

Economist Hanke warns oil markets ignoring supply problems --Oil markets are showing a dangerous level of complacency despite growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, shrinking petroleum inventories, and significant disruptions to Russian fuel exports, according to economist Steve Hanke. Speaking with Mario Nawfal on his YouTube show, Hanke argued that current oil prices are failing to reflect mounting risks surrounding the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and tightening supplies of refined petroleum products. He warned that while futures markets remain relatively calm, underlying conditions suggest the world could face significant energy disruptions if hostilities continue. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, is widely known for his work on inflation, currency crises, monetary policy, and commodity markets. A former senior economist on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, he has advised governments around the world and is a frequent commentator on global financial markets. During the interview, Hanke pointed to a recent Wall Street Journal report warning that U.S. oil inventories have become "dangerously low." "We know that when inventories are low, the spot price of any commodity exceeds the futures prices," Hanke said, noting that the current pricing structure has changed very little over the past week despite worsening geopolitical developments. Oil prices have been hovering around $70 per barrel for WTI crude — not far from prices before the recent Iran war began in late February. "The markets are asleep at the wheel,” he said, adding, “Something is wrong." One of Hanke's principal concerns is the disruption of global refined fuel supplies stemming from Russia. According to Hanke, Russia traditionally accounted for roughly 8% to 10% of internationally traded refined petroleum products — including gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel — but Ukrainian strikes have significantly damaged Russian refining capacity. "Refining capacity has been hit very hard in Russia," Hanke said after speaking with a colleague in Moscow. He added that even motorists in Moscow are reportedly waiting hours to fill their vehicles because Russia has shifted from exporting refined fuels to importing them. "Russia's out now," Hanke said of the refined products market. "They're importing refined products. They're not exporting." That loss, he argued, should be placing far greater upward pressure on international fuel markets. "If you've got Russia supplying 8 to 10% of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the international traded market, and all of a sudden you take 10% out of the market, well, that's not trivial," Hanke said. Despite these shortages, crude oil prices have remained relatively subdued, something Hanke acknowledged he cannot fully explain. "It is a little bit of a mystery," he admitted. Rather than pointing to a single cause, Hanke said numerous competing forces are simultaneously influencing oil prices. "We have lots of cross currents going on," he said. "You end up with a very difficult situation to start predicting anything." He also dismissed speculation that oil companies are secretly paying significantly higher physical prices for crude than are reflected in futures markets. Although refining margins — or "crack spreads" — remain elevated, Hanke said strong profits reported by refiners suggest companies are benefiting from the current market rather than absorbing hidden costs. "The refineries are making a lot of money," he said, adding that earlier reports of a large disconnect between physical oil prices and paper futures markets have narrowed considerably. Another reason oil prices have remained restrained, Hanke suggested, is that traders may be looking beyond current disruptions to expectations of increased global oil supplies in 2027. However, he argued that current futures prices do not fully support that explanation either. "If everyone is anticipating a lot of surplus in '27, you would end up with a much steeper forward curve and much more backwardation than we actually have," Hanke said. Beyond energy markets, Hanke expressed deep skepticism that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will ease anytime soon. Using what he described as a "joint probability" exercise, Hanke estimated only a very small likelihood that several key developments — including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, disarming Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, and Israeli withdrawals from disputed territories — would all occur simultaneously. "You're going to end up any way you cut it with a very low percentage — an infinitesimal amount — of a 1% probability of things being settled in the region," he said. "There's virtually no chance that things are going to work out and you'll have peace in the region." Hanke suggested markets have yet to fully recognize those geopolitical realities. "I think there's tremendous complacency in the markets," he said, extending that concern beyond commodities to stocks and other financial assets. While Hanke stopped short of forecasting an immediate oil price spike, he cautioned that markets could eventually be "mugged by reality" if military tensions intensify or supply disruptions worsen. For now, he believes investors are underestimating the cumulative impact of shrinking inventories, lost Russian refining output, and the continuing instability surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

He sued the oil industry for $51B. Now he faces Republicans in a private grilling. - It’s a rare occurrence for a private lawyer to be hauled before a congressional committee and be deposed. But in the sharply political world of climate and energy litigation, Roger Worthington is no ordinary lawyer. A champion among environmental activists and a villain to the Trump administration and congressional Republicans, the ambitious attorney’s latest gambit — representing Multnomah County, Oregon, in a $51 billion lawsuit that accuses the oil and gas industry of contributing to a heat wave that killed 69 people in 2021 — has landed him in the hot seat before the House Judiciary Committee. The 65-year-old, who made his name taking asbestos manufacturers to court, will be questioned Wednesday by Republicans who are investigating what they say are efforts to influence judges overseeing climate lawsuits, like the one brought by Worthington’s firm and two others on behalf of the county that includes Portland. Advertisement His appearance — ordered by congressional subpoena — is the latest flash point in a high-stakes legal and political battle over a swath of lawsuits brought by more than two dozen city and state governments seeking to hold oil and gas producers financially accountable for climate change. The industry has warned that the lawsuits could cost it tens of billions of dollars. House and Senate Republicans have filed legislation to wipe out the litigation. Blocking the lawsuits has emerged as one priority for the Trump administration amid its broader effort to stifle climate initiatives. The Department of Justice has filed unsuccessful lawsuits to block climate cases brought by Hawaii and Michigan, as well as derail a lawsuit by Minnesota. And the Supreme Court this fall is poised to hold oral arguments on the industry’s bid to quash the cases. Worthington took center stage from the moment Multnomah County commissioners announced the launch of the landmark climate lawsuit in June 2023 in front of a Portland courthouse. “They’re in the business of extracting carbon from the earth, converting it into a gas form and polluting our sky, and we have to pay the price,” Worthington thundered as he joined — and out-talked — the elected officials. “No more, not here, not now.” It’s not the first time he’s taken on corporate polluters. He dragged asbestos manufacturers into court for over 20 years, earning more than $1 billion for clients who were dying of cancer. That shaped his outlook for the climate case, which he warned “wasn’t going to be easy.” The fossil fuel industry, he predicted, would “fight like the dickens” to protect itself. Three years later, as he arrives in Washington for the closed-door grilling, his words are prescient in ways he and the team of attorneys — which includes veterans of tobacco and opioid litigation — say they never imagined: With lawmakers scrutinizing an attorney in an active case that Republicans have opposed politically. It prompted Worthington to accuse lawmakers of “throwing Big Oil a bone they can chew on” by demanding he appear before them. GOP Rep. Darrell Issa of California, who chairs the Judiciary subcommittee with jurisdiction over courts, said people who assert that the committee is doing the oil industry’s bidding are “full of shit, and you can quote that.” Lawmakers “want to hear the truth,” Issa said. “It’ll be under oath, and we expect that we’ll either have a ‘Take the Fifth’ or we’ll get, we hope, the truth.”

U.S. Rig Count Up Seven to 588; Permian Paces Gains as Oil-Directed Rigs Climb | RBN Energy -- U.S. oil and gas rig count gained seven rigs to 588 for the week ending July 17 according to Baker Hughes data, as Permian (+3), Anadarko (+2) and All Other (+2) all posted gains while all other basins held steady. Oil-directed rigs climbed to 452 (+7) while gas-directed rigs were unchanged at 126 and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 10. Total U.S. rig count is up 45 over the last 90 days and now stands 44 rigs above this week in 2025.

Canadian Rig Counts: Up 22 This Week (+20 Oil, +2 Gas) | RBN Energy - -In Western Canada, the gas-directed rig count rose by 2 to 59 rigs, while the oil-directed rig count gained 20 to 136 rigs, for the week ended July 17, according to Baker Hughes data. The gas-directed rig count is 9 higher than at this time last year, and 14 below the prior five-year high for this time of year (see left chart below), while the oil-directed rig count is 25 higher than at this time last year, and 13 higher than the prior five-year high for this time of year (see right chart below). The gains in the rig counts this week more than offset declines reported last week.The active gas-directed rig count gained 2 in Alberta, gained 1 in British Columbia, and fell by 1 in Saskatchewan (see table below). The Northeast Alberta (+7), Alberta Foothills Front (+5), and Central Saskatchewan (+6) regions accounted for 18 of the 20 net gains to the oil-directed rig count (see table below).

LNG Canada Takes Another Step Toward Phase 2 FID in First Nations Deal - LNG Canada’s backers have reached an agreement to give a group of First Nations neighboring the export facility in British Columbia an opportunity to invest up to $1 billion in part of its second phase. At a Glance:

First Nations could own storage tank
FID targeted by end of year
Expansion would double output

Canadian LNG’s Asia Edge Still Hinges on Competitive Costs --Canadian LNG’s shorter route to Asia, stable natural gas supply and lower carbon footprint have helped put the emerging export industry on the map, but developers still must compete on price as key buyers prioritize affordability, according to TD Cowen analysts. NGI Forward Look chart shows NOVA/AECO C forward fixed natural gas prices from August 2026 through August 2030. At a Glance:
Asian buyers still prioritizing affordability
Feedgas, shipping support competitiveness
LNG Canada Phase 2 requires more work

US Heat, Overseas Warmth Strengthen Global LNG Demand Outlook - A second major US heat event in three weeks is poised to increase power sector natural gas demand as continued warmth in Europe and Northeast Asia reinforce global LNG consumption. Europe and Asia weather charts compare trailing 365-day mean temperatures versus normal for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo. At a Glance:
Eastern US heat lifts natural gas demand
Europe, Asia warmth supports LNG pull
Atlantic remains quiet near export terminals

Global LNG Trade Hits Record High as U.S. Expands Export Lead - Global LNG trade climbed to a record 56.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 as U.S. exports surged 26%, while Europe's LNG imports jumped and Strait of Hormuz disruptions reshaped global gas markets. (P&GJ) — Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade reached a record 56.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 5.4% increase from the previous year, driven primarily by expanding U.S. export capacity, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). The United States strengthened its position as the world's largest LNG exporter, increasing shipments 26% to 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. U.S. exports accounted for 26% of global LNG trade, up from 21% a year earlier, while the United States, Qatar and Australia together supplied nearly two-thirds of the world's LNG exports. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. LNG exports to continue growing, forecasting exports of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 as new liquefaction capacity enters service. Qatar remained the second-largest LNG exporter, increasing exports 3% to 10.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. However, LNG flows from the country have declined this year following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route that previously handled roughly one-fifth of global LNG supplies. The disruption has tightened the spot market as Asian buyers compete with Europe for available cargoes. Several exporters, including Australia, Malaysia and Norway, reported lower exports because of maintenance activities. Russia posted the largest decline by volume, with LNG exports falling 8%, largely due to the effects of European sanctions. On the demand side, Europe recorded the largest increase in LNG imports, with volumes rising 29% (3.8 billion cubic feet per day) in 2025 after the expiration of the Ukraine-Russia natural gas transit agreement reduced pipeline supplies. Europe's largest LNG importers each increased purchases by between 0.4 billion cubic feet per day and 0.6 billion cubic feet per day. Asian LNG imports, by contrast, declined 4% to 35.7 billion cubic feet per day, largely because China reduced LNG purchases by 15% while relying more heavily on domestic production and pipeline gas. Egypt also sharply increased LNG imports, raising purchases from 0.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 to 1.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to offset domestic supply shortages. Bahrain and Senegal imported their first LNG cargoes during the year. According to the EIA, global LNG trade growth slowed in 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz disruption constrained exports from Qatar, forcing buyers to seek alternative supplies and increasing competition for spot cargoes.

LNG Tankers Again Vanish From Hormuz, Fueling Global Natural Gas Price Surge - After briefly ticking higher following a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, LNG vessels have again stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz as fighting has intensified in the region. NGI table showing US Gulf Coast LNG netback prices, shipping costs and Henry Hub margins for Asian and European markets across a 12-month forward strip. At a Glance:

Crossings down markedly
Dark activity continues
Attacks continue for 7th straight day

Global LNG Growth Threatened by Hormuz Shutdown Through 2027 -Following a record breaking 2025, the LNG landscape is bracing for volatility as a major geopolitical chokepoint shutdown threatens to reshape trade routes through 2027.North America LNG Export Flow Tracker shows daily feed gas deliveries and utilization rates for US LNG export terminals as of July 14, 2026. At a Glance:
US exports extend global lead
Qatar outage squeezes global supply
Europe, Asia compete for cargoes

Oil Prices Surge as U.S.-Iran Strikes Renew Hormuz Crisis - Oil prices climbed sharply at the start of the week after fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran reignited fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Brent crude traded above $79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $74, extending gains after last week’s rally. The latest increase comes as uncertainty grows over whether commercial vessels can continue transiting the strategic waterway. Confusion surrounding the status of the Strait of Hormuz has added to market anxiety. Iranian officials announced that the waterway had been closed “until further notice,” while U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) rejected the claim, insisting coalition forces are continuing operations to safeguard freedom of navigation. The renewed tension follows another round of U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian assets after Tehran allegedly launched attacks on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. According to CENTCOM, the operation was intended to protect commercial shipping. Meanwhile, reports indicated that U.S. forces intercepted Iranian drones and cruise missiles allegedly aimed at vessels operating in the region. The escalation has quickly restored a geopolitical risk premium to global oil markets after prices had eased in recent weeks on hopes that a temporary U.S.-Iran agreement would stabilize Gulf energy exports. Energy analysts say the renewed conflict threatens efforts to rebuild global crude inventories later this year and could prolong market volatility if tensions continue. “The latest developments are clearly adding fresh uncertainty,” said Saul Kavonic, Senior Energy Analyst at MST Marquee. While he noted the conflict has not yet escalated into a full-scale regional war, he expects crude prices to remain under upward pressure as long as military action continues and shipping through Hormuz remains uncertain. Natural gas markets are also reacting to the deteriorating security situation. European gas futures rose after traders expressed concerns that LNG exports from Gulf producers could face further disruptions if the conflict intensifies. Commercial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly. The vital corridor normally carries around 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets. Although maritime authorities say the southern shipping lane coordinated by Oman remains operational, vessel traffic remains limited as shipowners assess the security risks. Diplomatic efforts also appear to be losing momentum. Iranian officials accused Washington of failing to honor previous commitments regarding shipping access and oil exports, while U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the earlier ceasefire arrangement was effectively over, although he left the door open for future negotiations. Over the weekend, explosions were reported near Bandar Abbas, close to the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran reportedly launched drone and missile attacks targeting U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. One of the attacks reportedly struck a Kuwaiti oil drilling facility, marking the first direct hit on regional energy infrastructure in weeks. Analysts warn that if critical oil production or export facilities become targets, crude prices could climb toward $100 per barrel. Despite the renewed tensions, some Gulf producers had recently begun increasing exports after earlier diplomatic progress eased concerns over regional supply. The United Arab Emirates, in particular, had expanded crude shipments using alternative transport strategies designed to minimize disruption. With military operations continuing and uncertainty surrounding one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints growing, traders are bracing for further volatility in oil markets as geopolitical risks remain firmly in focus.

Oil prices rise more than 2% as U.S.-Iran strikes renew supply fears – Global oil prices climbed more than 2% on Monday after fresh military strikes between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over the security of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Brent crude futures gained $1.67, or 2.2%, to trade at $77.68 per barrel as of 09:55 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.59, or 2.23%, to $73.00 a barrel. The rally followed renewed hostilities over the weekend, with both countries launching military strikes that reignited fears of disruptions to global oil supplies. Iran reportedly targeted U.S. facilities across the Gulf on Sunday and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy chokepoints. On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had carried out attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, further escalating tensions in the region. Before the conflict erupted in late February, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption a major concern for energy markets. Ship-tracking data showed vessel traffic through the strait fell to a five-week low on Sunday. According to data from Kpler, only six vessels transited the waterway during the day. The renewed hostilities have also cast uncertainty over the future of an interim agreement signed by Washington and Tehran last month. The deal had aimed to reopen the strait and pave the way for an end to the conflict following an additional 60 days of negotiations. Despite Iran’s announcement, U.S. President Donald Trump maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic. Speaking during an interview on Sunday, Trump said the waterway was operational despite earlier reports of restrictions following an incident involving a vessel that allegedly deviated from an approved route. “It’s open, and I don’t want to talk about it, because I want to honor the life of Lindsey Graham,” Trump told “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker, later adding, “It’s open, we bombed the hell out of them last night, they’re very, very evil and sick people. “We had meetings with them… they agreed to a deal yesterday, a perfect deal for us. No nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything and then after that they left the room and then within an hour they launched a drone at a ship.” Analysts at Goldman Sachs said expanding pipeline infrastructure across the Middle East could significantly reduce the impact of future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the investment bank, more than 60% of Gulf oil exports could eventually bypass the strait if planned pipeline projects are completed. Goldman Sachs projects that alternative pipeline capacity will increase by 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2027 and by a cumulative 7.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2028. This would raise the region’s effective bypass capacity to more than 14 million barrels per day, providing greater resilience against geopolitical disruptions. Meanwhile, Iranian crude supplies stored at sea have increased after Tehran boosted exports during the temporary peace arrangement with the United States. However, demand for Iranian crude has reportedly softened as China’s independent refiners increasingly opt for cheaper supplies from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Separately, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) set the August official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at $80.01 per barrel, down sharply from $101.48 per barrel in the previous month. The latest rise in oil prices comes as Nigeria records its strongest crude production performance in six years. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country produced an average of 1.56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2026, the highest monthly output since April 2020. The production level exceeded Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, representing 104% compliance with the target. Combined crude oil and condensate production also increased to 1.735 million barrels per day, providing a potential boost to government revenues at a time of elevated global oil prices. With tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of easing, market participants will continue to monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz, where any prolonged disruption could have significant implications for global energy supply and prices.

Oil prices surge after Trump announces Hormuz blockade -Global oil prices surged on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would reinstate a naval blockade on Iran and impose a 20% charge on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement heightened concerns over energy supplies through one of the world's busiest oil shipping routes, sending crude prices sharply higher. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed about 9% to around $83 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to nearly $78 per barrel, marking their highest levels in almost a month. According to market data, Brent was on course for its biggest single-day gain since May 2020. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the United States would become the "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and would be reimbursed for ensuring maritime security. "The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran," Trump wrote. He also announced that the US would impose a 20% charge on all cargo shipped through the strategic waterway to cover the costs of maintaining security. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) said enforcement of the blockade will begin at 20:00 GMT (4:00 p.m. ET) on July 14, covering Iranian ports and coastal areas. The statement said vessels heading to or from non-Iranian destinations would still be permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while humanitarian shipments would be allowed following inspections. The renewed tensions come after US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had struck around 140 targets in Iran during its latest military operation. Iran has responded with attacks targeting US military facilities in the Gulf and has accused Washington of violating recent understandings over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically important maritime chokepoints, handling roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets.

Oil up 9% to one-month high as US says it will blockade entire Iranian coastline, all vessels (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up more than 9% on Monday at a one-month high after news that a United States' naval blockade due to begin on Tuesday will cover Iran's entire coastline, ports and oil terminals, as well as all vessels regardless ‌of flag, reigniting concerns over energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures settled up $7.29, or 9.59%, to $83.30, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $6.73, or 9.42%, to $78.14 a barrel. Brent futures posted their biggest single-day dollar gain since April 2, and highest settlement since June 12. U.S. crude futures, meanwhile, made their largest daily gain since April 29 to settle at their highest since June 15. The U.S. is set to reinstate the naval blockade on July 14 at 2000 GMT, according to the U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center. The blockade had been lifted in mid-June. Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump said the United States was reinstating a naval blockade and would be reimbursed 20% ⁠on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed military exchanges with Iran. "President Trump’s reinstatement of restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic, alongside retaliatory attacks and sharply reduced vessel flows through the strait has intensified concerns over near-term supply availability," Iran's top joint military command had earlier said it would not allow Washington to intervene in the management of the strait and any attempt by the U.S. to transit without its authorization would be confronted. The UN's shipping agency against Trump's proposal, saying it opposes any fees for straits used in international navigation and stressing that there is no legal basis for introducing mandatory tolls on strait transits. Before the conflict began in late February, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Traffic had begun to increase during a fragile ceasefire agreed in June, but had slowed as tensions rose. "The focus will remain on the number of inbound tankers as a lower number could impact production, so currently we see a risk premium and a disruption risk supporting prices," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. As the prospect ⁠of long-term disruption looms, analysts expect countries to work on ways to permanently bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could shield more than 60% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from any future Hormuz disruptions by end-2028. The bank's base-case forecast assumes pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz will rise by 3.8 million bpd by end-2027 and 7.3 million bpd cumulatively by end-2028, taking total effective bypass capacity to more than 14 million bpd by end-2028. During the interim peace deal, Tehran increased exports, which has led to an increase in Iranian oil supplies held at sea. Sales have been slow, ⁠however, as China's independent refiners have turned to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company set the August official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at $80.01 a barrel, it said on Monday, down from $101.48 a barrel the month before. Russian energy supplies have also been disrupted as Ukraine seeks to cut off funding for Moscow's war effort. Ukraine's Security Service said it struck ⁠an oil depot in Russia's Stavropol region overnight, as well as three storage tanks at an oil-loading site in the port of Kavkaz in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which accounts for 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, cut supplies by 7% last month from May as a result of maintenance at the country's largest oilfield, Tengiz, as well as ⁠lower Russian flows, two industry sources said on Monday. Elsewhere, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by about 3 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels last week, the lowest level since April 1983, according to data from the Department of Energy. The drawdowns are a part of a U.S. agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility.

Oil Prices Have Jumped 12% Since Friday as War Risks Return - Oil prices extended Monday’s surge into Asian trade on Tuesday, with Brent Crude prices hitting a one-month high, as the renewed war risk premium crashed the calmer trade of the past weeks amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and the reinstated U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports.Oil prices are now 12% higher than they were on Friday. In Asian trade on Tuesday, both the Brent and WTI benchmarks were advancing by about 2% to their highest levels in weeks, as the market realized the recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t going to go smoothly and was on a constantly rising trend from the levels in mid-June when the U.S. and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding to negotiate a deal.Brent Crude futures were approaching the $85 per barrel mark on Tuesday, while WTI Crude was attempting a breakout above $80 per barrel. Brent Crude prices were up by 1.91% at $84.89 in Asian trade. The U.S. benchmark had gained 2.02% to $79.72 per barrel. Both benchmarks on Tuesday extended Monday’s 8% surge in prices, which was triggered by the re-escalation during the weekend and by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing later in the day that the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran. The oil market is further confused about what President Trump referred to as a 20% fee for the U.S. becoming “the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait” and “for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World.”Analysts are also wondering how this could work, or even if it’s serious or remotely feasible.“There are few details on how this would work—or how serious Trump is about it,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note early on Tuesday. Trump’s “idea” would mean that a 20% fee on a supertanker that carries about 2 million barrels of crude at $80 per barrel would be equivalent to around $32 million, or an additional cost of $16 per barrel. “This is significantly higher than the $1/bbl toll for which Iran has been pushing,” ING’s strategists said. The oil market started this week with the crude awakening that any recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not be smooth sailing.

Middle East Crude Prices Jump After Iran Attacks UAE Oil Tankers - Middle East crude prices strengthened after Iran attacked UAE oil tankers, raising concerns over Strait of Hormuz shipping, tightening prompt supplies and prompting Asian refiners to seek alternative crude sources. (Reuters) — Prompt Middle East spot crude prices rebounded to higher levels compared with future months as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran raised concerns about a disruption to oil exports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources said on July 14, prompting Asian buyers to seek alternative supplies. Map of Iran. The latest wave of attacks in the five-month-old war started with a U.S. strike on Iran after a ship attack last week. In recent days, the U.S. renewed strikes, while Tehran attacked Gulf nations and ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. Iran attacked two Emirati oil tankers, part of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co's (ADNOC's) fleet to shuttle crude out of the Gulf, for transshipments off the United Arab Emirates and Oman for supplies to customers. The latest attack on the tankers is likely to deter shippers from entering the Gulf to load oil, with companies that have already chartered vessels closely monitoring the situation, trade and shipping sources said. It has raised concerns among refiners about whether their cargoes will be delivered in the coming weeks, they added. Prompt monthly spreads for Middle East benchmark Dubai crude flipped into backwardation of nearly $1 a barrel on July 14, traders said, after staying in contango for three weeks. Prompt month prices are higher than those in future months in a backwardated market, indicating tight supplies, while contango is the opposite. "There is a possibility that even the UAE will find it difficult to get crude out," said a shipping source in India. "The war premium will go up significantly high. Who will guarantee the safety of vessels? People will not be willing to go in." The sources cited in this article declined to be named publicly as they are not authorized to speak to media. Global crude supplies had improved over the past three weeks after a flurry of tankers passed through the strait amid an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. However, just five oil, chemicals and dry bulkers transited the strait on July 13, mostly using the Iranian route, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed. There were no oil and liquefied natural gas tankers entering the strait. "The mini-glut of oil has now evaporated, with a fresh eye of a potential of disruptions from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Houthis are joining the attacks," said June Goh, a senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities. Yemen's Houthi movement fired missiles at Saudi Arabia on July 13, breaking a four-year truce in the conflict between the kingdom and the Iran-aligned group. ADNOC, which has already committed to sales of more than 70 million barrels of crude between June and August, is expected to tap into its inventories from Fujairah to meet demand, although a slowdown of its shuttle service could mean delays for some cargoes, traders said. The producer is expected to award a tender later this week which could see discounts for its cargoes narrowing and also more demand for cargoes loading in September and October given the latest development, an Indian refining source said. "The situation is fluid (and) uncertain. We cannot plan properly," he added. Asian refiners would have to tap arbitrage supplies from West Africa and Latin America to replace Middle Eastern crude, with Indian buyers set to increase their Russian oil purchases, trade sources said. An Indian refining source said refiners have sufficient inventories for now, but supply could tighten towards September if the disruption lasts 10 to 15 days. The latest round of tensions has also strengthened spot prices and refiners' margins for refined products in Asia. Diesel and jet fuel markets saw prompt monthly spreads and refining margins jump to near two-month highs on July 14, while refiner margins for 380-centistoke high-sulphur fuel oil edged higher to a four-week high, LSEG data showed. Asian naphtha crack climbed to $184 per metric ton over Brent crude on July 14, the highest level since May 19. Tankers carrying fuel oil last transited the strait in early July, with no more visible exits seen after the latest round of attacks, Kpler data showed.

Oil Prices Surge on US-Iran Escalation, Tanker Hits - Oil futures extended their rise Tuesday morning as the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to escalate, including reciprocal strikes and Iranian attacks on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. By 8:30 a.m. ET, ICE Brent for September delivery was up $3.02 to trade near $86.32 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for August delivery rose $1.76 to $79.90 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for August delivery advanced $0.1219 to $3.9455 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures rose $0.0788 to $3.2451 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.19 points to 100.85 against a basket of foreign currencies. Crude oil futures have over the past two trading days soared to a four-week high amid renewed supply concerns amid a crumbling U.S.-Iranian ceasefire. Brent's front-month contract was as of Tuesday morning up 14% from Friday's close. Diesel prices jumped even more, with ULSD for August delivery trading at an almost eight-week high. ADNOC, the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, on Tuesday claimed that three of its oil tankers were attacked by Iran as they were shuttling crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders turned off. Shippers have reverted to sailing "in the dark" over the past few days after Tehran declared the Strait closed following a flare-up in U.S. and Iranian attacks. Ship tracking data showed visible crossings plummeting to a two-month low in recent days, but the volume of dark flows, particularly of Iranian oil, remained hard to gauge. Adding to supply concerns, the U.S. reinstated its blockade of Iranian ports after last week lifting a 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian energy exports granted as part of the memorandum of understanding signed by both countries. The ongoing global refined products supply crunch, which is set to deepen from both Ukraine stepping up its attacks on Russian refineries and choked off flows from the Persian Gulf, has kept U.S. fuel inventories unusually depressed and prices sticky. The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week reported that nationwide gasoline stockpiles have fallen to a 14-year seasonal low 212 million bbl. Weekly inventory estimates by the American Petroleum Institute are scheduled to be released this afternoon, followed by official government data on Wednesday, July 15.

Oil Market Extends Rally as Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls - The oil market continued to trend higher on Tuesday as the continuing attacks between the U.S. and Iran increased concerns over oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz with the number of tankers transiting the waterway falling to the lowest level in two months. Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran intensified this week, as U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping. The oil market traded higher in overnight trading and posted a high of $81.27. However, the market gave up some of its gains and sold off to a low of $77.84 by mid-day after U.S. President Trump said he decided to a replace his proposal to charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals with Gulf nations. He also said that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all ship traffic except for Iran. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract ended the session up $1.20 at $79.34 and the September Brent contract settled up $1.43 at $84.73. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 19.07 cents at $4.0143 and the RB market settling up 6.1 cents at $3.2273. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s national security and it will exercise its sovereignty over it, whatever the cost. He said Iran currently has no commitments when it comes to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed with the United States. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that as long as U.S. “evil actions” continue in the region, “not a single drop of oil and gas” would be exported from the region. IRGC also said U.S. “aggressions” would have no result other than to delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that their attacks on what it described as U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain came in response to U.S. attacks on Iran.Iran’s Oil Minister, Mohsen Paknejad, said the country’s oil exports are continuing as usual despite the cancellation last week of a 60-day waiver of U.S. oil sanctions. He said the oil ministry had maintained mechanisms for years to neutralize the impact of U.S. sanctions and that Iran’s oil exports would face no problems despite the removal of the waivers. According to data and industry sources, daily crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu are close to maximum levels this week as tensions with Yemen’s Houthi militia intensify and the kingdom seeks to maximize oil exports. According to Signal Ocean data, shipments from Yanbu reached 4.7 million bpd around July 13^th, up from 3.36 million bpd around July 10^th and broadly in line with 4.6 million bpd around July 2^nd. Loadings have averaged above 4 million bpd since June, compared with 973,000 bpd around the same period 2025. Iraq’s Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, said that Iraq needed a fair share within OPEC after he was asked by reporters whether he was considering leaving the oil producer group.

Oil Prices Climb for Fourth Day as Iran Threatens New Energy Chokepoints -Oil prices rose early on Wednesday for the fourth consecutive trading session as the collapsed U.S.-Iran ceasefire precipitated a new crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran threatened to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies.”As of early trade in Europe on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices were up by 0.83%, remaining above the $85 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up above $80 after climbing 0.89%.Oil prices have been rising since last Friday, for a total gain of about 12% as of Tuesday’s close.In just a few days, the steady uptick in Hormuz traffic turned into a trickle of a handful of tankers braving the chokepoint as hostilities returned this weekend. Iran struck tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. hit Iranian targets and reinstated the naval blockade. As the U.S. blockade went live early on Wednesday Middle Eastern time, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) threatened to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies”, according to reports in Iranian media cited by Reuters.“Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all,” the Revolutionary Guards said in ‌a statement carried by Iran’s IRNA state news agency on Wednesday.The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen may be used for blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a major global chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, analysts have warned since the war began on February 28.Earlier this week, reports emerged in Iranian media that the Houthis are prepared to block Bab el-Mandeb if Saudi Arabia continues to attack Yemen.The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is part of what is now Saudi Arabia’s key crude oil export terminal at Yanbu on the Red Sea amid constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI Dips As US Crude Production Hits Record High, SPR Draw Slows, Cushing Remains At 'Tank Bottoms' (9 graphs) Oil prices are marginally higher overnight after President Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping slowed to a crawl amid the renewed warfare in the critical waterway. US Central Command said it completed a morning round of strikes on Iran that further degraded its ability to attack commercial shipping in Hormuz. It comes a day after attacks on ships that had been participating in so-called shuttle runs that have helped get oil from inside the Persian Gulf through the strait. Visible transit through the waterway has fallen sharply in recent days, but there remains a high level of uncertainty about what’s actually crossing because many ships have been doing so dark - without broadcasting their location. “While crude has started to find some balance after rallying from around $70, it still takes a brave shipowner to transit the Strait of Hormuz with the threat of attacks from forces aligned with Tehran remaining very real,” “The broader geopolitical backdrop continues to deteriorate, providing ongoing support for crude prices and keeping buyers prepared to step back in should prices push toward the $90 area.” Overnight saw mixed data from API on crude/product supply, all eyes now on the official data. API:

Crude -564k
Cushing +200k
Gasoline -1.664mm
Distillates +2.3mm

DOE:

Crude -1.69mm (-900k exp)
Cushing +430k
Gasoline -1.53mm
Distillates +4.56mm - biggest build since Jan 2026

After a build the prior week, crude stocks resumed their series of drawdowns last week (11 of last 12 weeks) and gasoline stocks also saw another draw while distillate stocks soared (amid record 3-2-1 crack spreads)... Crack spreads remain at record highs... The SPR saw yet another drawdown... but the smallest since the war-driven releases began (-2.985mm)... Cushing stocks barely moved off 'tank bottoms'... US crude production pushed back up to record highs as the rig count trends higher... Interestingly, after reaching record highs in the prior week, US crude product exports plunged to pre-war norms last week (but bear in mind this data series is a week lagged)... The rebound in crude... and more notably products... has started to drag pump prices higher in the US... Not what President trump wants to see. But oil prices are dipping after the report... Finally, as The FT reports, oil traders are warning that the latest flare-up of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz marks a risky new phase for the market, which is facing fresh disruption without the stockpiles that helped avert a wider economic crisis earlier in the US-Iran war. “We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” said one trader. “All of that’s now gone,” he said.

Oil Market Holds Firm as U.S.-Iran Strikes Keep Tensions Elevated - The oil market posted an inside trading day on Wednesday as the market remained supported by the intensifying hostilities in the Middle East. The U.S. conducted a new wave of strikes against Iran’s coastal defense systems and missile sites on Wednesday, while Iran struck U.S. military targets in the region, including in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Iran also threatened to shut off more regional energy exports. It is the latest escalation of attacks and counterattacks launched by the two sides as they seek control of the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market traded to a high of $80.93 in overnight trading. However, the market erased some of its gains and posted a low of $78.19 by mid-day, shrugging off the new round of strikes against Iranian military installations and a smaller than expected draw in crude oil stocks of 1.7 million barrels for the week ending July 10th. The market settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract ended the session up 26 cents at $79.60 and the September Brent contract settled up 22 cents at $84.95. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 6.6 cents at $3.9483 in light of a 4.6 million barrels build in distillates stocks and the RB market settling up 7.36 cents at $3.3009 in light of a 1.5 million barrel draw in gasoline stocks. Bloomberg reported that a handful of vessels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, hours after the U.S. resumed a naval blockade of Iran and following an increase in attacks on ships. According to ship-tracking data, a U.S.-sanctioned supertanker laden with Iranian oil sailed outbound into the Gulf of Oman, before coming to a stop not long after exiting the strait. Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf exports recovered to more than 80% of pre-war levels after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding in June but fell back below 50% or about 11 million bpd, over the last week. The bank said Brent could exceed $110/barrel in the fourth quarter this year if Gulf export recovery continues to stall. U.S. President Donald Trump said he still believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine soon, despite continued attacks and some indications Russia was likely to escalate the conflict. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 200,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 17th, increasing available refining capacity by 70,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 89,000 bpd in the week ending July 24th. The Federal Reserve said in its latest “Beige Book” report that U.S. economic activity increased slightly in recent weeks, employment rose, and companies and households indicated that inflation may have improved. The economy is expected to continue to expand in the coming months but several districts noted elevated uncertainty in the outlook for fuel costs.

Oil prices decline as market assesses consequences of US resuming strikes on Iran -- Oil prices fell on Thursday, as traders took profits and assessed the risks of a new wave of US strikes on Iranian military facilities, which heightened fears of a full-scale conflict resumption and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reports UNN citing Reuters. On Wednesday, the United States struck Iran's coastal defense and missile launchers after reinstating a naval blockade of its ports, while Iran threatened to halt energy exports from the region, stating it is waging an "existential war" with America. After initially rising for a fourth consecutive session, Brent crude futures fell by 24 cents, or 0.28%, to $84.95 per barrel as of 04:35 GMT (07:35 Kyiv time), while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 15.7% per barrel. Earlier in the session, Brent crude rose nearly a dollar, and both contracts remained near monthly highs. "Geopolitical risks continue to provide significant support to the oil industry, but after a strong rally, traders have adopted a wait-and-see stance," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "Attention has shifted from the threat itself to the question of whether there will be any tangible disruptions in oil supplies and how the US and Iran will choose to respond in the coming days." Oil prices rose this week, as the attacks exacerbated supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade passed before the war. On Wednesday, the first day after the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iran, fewer vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven ships crossed it on Wednesday, compared to 13 a day earlier. Last week, hostility between Iran and the US escalated, undermining an already fragile truce reached in June after several months of hostilities. "While mediation efforts by neighboring countries continue, and the general consensus is that a full-scale war is unlikely, WTI crude prices could rise to $85-87 depending on the conflict's development," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment. Analysts say Iran has signaled it could use its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and threatening the world's second most important energy artery. Reuters also reported on Wednesday that US officials said strikes on Iran could pave the way for "more complex" operations against the country, increasing market volatility. Goldman Sachs said Brent crude prices could exceed $110 in the fourth quarter if the recovery of exports from the Persian Gulf continues to slow, but could also fall to $60 by year-end if tensions ease and production recovers faster than expected. ING analysts warned in a note that supply disruptions are flaring up again at a time when US commercial crude inventories are at their lowest since 2022 and at their lowest seasonally since 2018. "The concern is that the resurgence of oil supply disruptions is occurring against a backdrop of significant inventory drawdowns in the second quarter, making the market more vulnerable," the analysts pointed out.

Oil rises over 1% as Iran threat puts Red Sea route at risk - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as concerns over energy supplies increased after the Iran war escalated with intensifying strikes in the Middle East and as Tehran asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route. Brent crude futures were up 93 cents, or 1.09%, to $85.88 a barrel at 1420 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 89 cents, or 1.12%, to $80.49 a barrel. “Simultaneous disruptions affecting Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would significantly amplify supply chain stress, increase tanker availability constraints, and raise insurance premiums,” said Wael Makarem, financial markets strategist lead at Exness. Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, three sources told Reuters on Thursday, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait — gateway to the Red Sea — would open a new front in the energy crisis and Iran’s overarching conflict with the U.S. Total volumes of petroleum transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million barrels per day in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. The U.S. struck Iran’s coastal defences and missile sites on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports, while Tehran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying it was engaged in an “existential war” with America. The escalation comes after a fragile truce reached in June collapsed, reviving fears of a return to full-scale conflict and disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about a fifth of daily global oil and LNG trade before the war began. Fewer vessels passed through the strait on Wednesday, the first day after the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade on Iran. Seven crossed on Wednesday, down from 13 the previous day. “It seems reasonable that prices could continue to climb towards $90-$95 and maybe even touch the $100 mark again and that is because the Strait of Hormuz is repeatedly being disrupted, creating uncertainty over oil flows from the Gulf,” said Ole Hvalbye, market analyst at SEB Research. On the supply side, Iraqi crude loadings more than doubled to average roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of July, according to Kpler data and a source with direct knowledge of the flows, as exports accelerated following months of restricted shipments.

Oil Rises as Flows Slow Amid US Strikes, Iranian Threats (DTN) -- Oil and product futures edged higher Thursday morning, with crude futures hovering near one-month highs after rallying by as much as 12% this week. By 08:10 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for September delivery was up $0.27 to trade near $85.22 barrel (bbl), and NYMEX WTI for August delivery rose $0.44 to $80.04 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for August delivery advanced $0.0472 to $3.9955 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures rose $0.0374 to $3.3383 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index inched higher by 0.066 points to 100.34 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have slowed amid the most recent military escalation, but a handful of tankers continued to traverse the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S.-protected corridor along the Omani coast, easing concerns over an immediate supply shock. The U.S., meanwhile, launched new strikes on Iran, as well as on an Iran-flagged VLCC that was signaling for the country's main oil export hub at Kharg Island. U.S. President Donald Trump has in recent days repeatedly threatened to widen the scope of attacks should Iran not reopen the strait, and mentioned the possibility of striking bridges, power plants and other energy infrastructure. In reaction, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated its threat of closing other vital shipping lanes via its proxies, first and foremost Bab-el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The Tehran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen has in the past attacked ships attempting to cross the strait at the Horn of Africa, forcing shippers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. A large diesel inventory build in the U.S., meanwhile, last week snapped a 16-week draw streak in total petroleum inventories, Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday showed. Crude oil inventories, however, continued to decline amid strong domestic refiner demand, and gasoline stockpiles, already at a 14-year seasonal low, receded further as well. At 210.5 million bbl, nationwide gasoline inventories are now 9.6% below year-ago levels and 8.4% below the seasonal five-year average.

Oil settles lower, but remains near one-month high on U.S.-Iran tension (Reuters) - Oil prices settled about 1% lower on Thursday ‌but remained near their highest level since mid-June as the Iran war escalated, with Tehran asking Yemen's Houthi movement to be prepared to close the Red Sea oil export route. Brent crude futures fell 72 cents, or about 0.9%, to settle at $84.23 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $78.95 a barrel. At their session highs, both contracts were up more than 1%. Thursday's decline reflects the market losing some steam after prices hit one-month highs earlier this week ⁠as traders readjusted their positions, "Investor positioning in the oil market was very short when the situation started to worsen in the Middle East this week, and that seems to have slowed as investors that got burnt in the rally cut their short positions earlier in the week," . On Wednesday, Brent futures settled at their highest since June 12, and WTI at the highest since June 15. The fragile truce reached in June has collapsed, disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about a fifth of daily global oil and LNG trade before the war began. Iran has asked Yemen's Houthis to be ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. strikes Iranian power infrastructure, three sources told Reuters. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump repeated oft-stated threats to strike ‌Iranian ⁠power plants and bridges. "With the Strait of Hormuz already closed, this threat raises the serious risk of both of the Middle East's primary oil export routes being disrupted at the same time," About 7.4 million barrels of petroleum transited Bab el-Mandeb per day in June, about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. "Simultaneous disruptions affecting Hormuz and ⁠Bab el-Mandeb would significantly amplify supply chain stress, increase tanker availability constraints, and raise insurance premiums," On Wednesday, the U.S. struck Iran's coastal defenses and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports. Tehran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying ⁠it was engaged in an "existential war" with America. Iran and the U.S. exchanged intensified fire on Thursday, which kept upward pressure on prices. Weighing on prices was Iran's release of a U.S. citizen, which could point toward a path to avert the resumption of all-out war. On the ⁠supply side, Iraqi crude loadings more than doubled to average roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of July, according to Kpler data and a source with direct knowledge of the flows, as exports accelerated following months of restricted shipments.

ULSD Futures Climb to 4-Year High on Tight Global Supplies (DTN) -- Oil futures were little changed on Thursday as market participants remained on the sidelines despite escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continuing at a slow pace. In contrast, ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures were bullish on the day, climbing to a four-year high as global supply tightened after Russia halted diesel exports following recent attacks on its refining infrastructure. The front-month NYMEX ULSD futures contract rose by $0.1009 to $4.0492 gallon, the highest since June 29, 2022, when it was at $4.0367 gallon, according to DTN data. On July 14, Ukraine launched drone strikes targeting the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat complex and the Afipsky oil refinery, two of Russia's major refining facilities, as well as multiple vessels and logistics targets, exacerbating fuel shortages. Following a series of Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure, Russia suspended diesel exports, further tightening an already constrained global diesel market. In the U.S., a large diesel inventory build last week snapped a 16-week draw streak for total petroleum inventories, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday. Crude oil inventories, however, continued to decline amid strong domestic refiner demand, and gasoline stockpiles, already at a 14-year seasonal low, receded further. At 210.5 million bbl, nationwide gasoline inventories are now 9.6% below year-ago levels and 8.4% below the seasonal five-year average. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have slowed amid the most recent military escalation, but a handful of tankers continued to traverse the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S.-protected corridor along the Omani coast, easing concerns over an immediate supply shock. Traders continued monitoring the developments in the Middle East, as the U.S. launched new strikes on Iran, as well as on an Iran-flagged VLCC that was signaling for the country's main oil export hub at Kharg Island. In reaction, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated its threat of closing other vital shipping lanes via its proxies, first and foremost Bab-el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. NYMEX WTI for August delivery edged down $0.57 to $79.03 bbl. The ICE Brent futures contract for September delivery fell $0.64 to $84.31 bbl. Downstream, the front-month RBOB futures contract dropped $0.0165 to $3.2844 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.311 points to 100.585 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, Raising Fears Over Global Supply Disruptions – - Oil prices climbed on Friday as renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran intensified concerns over global energy supplies, with a fragile ceasefire collapsing and threats emerging over key shipping routes in the Middle East. Brent crude futures increased by 70 cents, or about 0.83%, to $84.93 a barrel by 0312 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 81 cents, or 1.03%, to $79.76 a barrel. The gains reversed losses from the previous trading session as investors reacted to growing geopolitical risks surrounding some of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Both major oil benchmarks have surged nearly 12% this week, putting Brent on track for its third consecutive weekly increase and WTI heading toward a second straight weekly gain. The sharp rise reflects growing concerns that further military escalation could disrupt crude exports from the Middle East and tighten global energy markets. Analysts said the possibility of another major supply disruption point emerging in the Red Sea has added additional uncertainty to the oil market outlook. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the combination of risks affecting both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has created a “dual-risk scenario” that is keeping a geopolitical premium built into oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with a significant share of global oil shipments passing through the narrow waterway. Any disruption in the area could quickly affect international oil supplies and push prices higher. The latest escalation follows the breakdown of a temporary agreement that had paused fighting in the region. On Wednesday, the United States launched two major waves of airstrikes in a single day against targets near Iran’s southern coastline, marking the first major offensive action since the truce was established last month. U.S. forces continued strikes on Thursday as tensions continued to rise. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in neighboring countries, including strikes aimed at a recently expanded air base in Jordan. The continued exchange of attacks has increased fears that the conflict could spread further across the region and threaten energy infrastructure. Qatar’s defense ministry said its military forces intercepted an Iranian missile attack early Friday, while the country’s interior ministry reported that a child was injured by shrapnel during interception operations. The incident highlighted the wider regional risks as Gulf nations remain on alert. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that oil security remains a major concern as the conflict continues. Speaking at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Birol said the situation could become increasingly worrying if conditions fail to improve in the coming weeks. The U.S. Central Command said American forces launched another round of attacks against Iran, describing them as efforts to further weaken Iranian military capabilities. Tehran has continued retaliatory operations, increasing fears that the confrontation could move beyond direct military exchanges and affect global trade routes. Adding to supply concerns, Iran’s leadership has reportedly instructed its Houthi allies in Yemen to prepare for possible action against Red Sea shipping routes if the United States targets Iranian power infrastructure, according to sources familiar with the matter. Such a move could threaten one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, where oil tankers and commercial vessels regularly travel. The possibility of disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has created renewed anxiety among energy traders, who are closely monitoring developments for signs of further escalation. Technical analysts also pointed to continued upward momentum in crude prices. Analysts at IG said WTI could potentially test levels in the mid-$80 range if it remains above key support levels in the mid-$70s. With tensions between Washington and Tehran showing few signs of easing, oil markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to military developments, diplomatic efforts, and any threats to major global shipping routes. Investors are now watching closely to determine whether the latest escalation represents a temporary spike in tensions or the beginning of a broader disruption to global energy supplies.

US-Iran Update: Oil Prices Surge By 4% as Iran Escalates Fresh Attacks on Gulf Allies -- Iran launched fresh missile and drone strikes on Kuwait’s power-generation and desalination plants on July 17, deepening the US-Iran confrontation that has rattled global energy markets since early July. The oil prices surge of over 4%, pushing Brent crude toward $79 and WTI to similar highs, is now stoking inflation fears and rattling risk assets worldwide. Bitcoin, sitting near $64,000, is watching the U.S.-Iran war escalation closely as traders assess whether the digital asset can hold its ground as a geopolitical hedge. Iran’s July 17 targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kuwait, a key US ally, marks a significant escalation. Kuwait’s government confirmed the incident, and fires broke out at the affected facilities. The strikes follow US airstrikes on Iranian energy sites and came after President Trump warned Tehran that power plants and bridges would be targeted unless Iran returned to peace talks. Iran’s rejection of ceasefire talks has been a consistent thread through this entire conflict cycle. The current flare-up builds on a volatile stretch that started in early July. US forces hit Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran was accused of attacking commercial vessels. Iran responded by targeting US-linked facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. By July 12–13, Brent and WTI had already climbed 4%+ on those fears. The July 17 Kuwait plant strikes pushed the conflict to a new threshold: direct damage to the civilian energy infrastructure of a neutral Gulf state. Iran also struck a ship in the Strait of Hormuz today, further escalating the U.S.-Iran war. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, has slowed sharply after Iran reasserted claims over the waterway. ANZ and ING analysts warned that hopes for a quick de-escalation are fading. The oil price surge now reflects more than a temporary spike; it signals that supply risk is becoming structural heading into Q3.

Oil Has Biggest Weekly Rise in 5 Months on Gulf Escalation -- Crude futures posted on Friday their largest weekly advance since the end of February as U.S.-Iran tensions revisited this week the peaks of the Middle East conflict, now approaching its fifth month. NYMEX WTI crude for August delivery settled up $3.54 at $82.49 barrel (bbl), rising 4.5% on the day and 15.5% on the week, amid reports that Tehran has directed Yemen's Houthi movement to prepare for a potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea. It was the largest weekly gain for the U.S. crude benchmark since the week ended Feb. 27, which marked the start of the conflict. Any blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb will add to the already severely restricted oil shipments on the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of the world's oil supply used to transit before the war. Daily commercial transits through Hormuz dropped into single digits by Friday afternoon, with maritime tracking data showing tankers halting or reversing course following the reimposition of the U.S. naval embargo on Iran and continuous drone and missile strikes. WTI aside, ICE Brent for September delivery finished up $3.87 at $88.10 bbl for a 4.6% rise on the day and 16% on the week. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for August climbed $0.0339 to settle at $4.0646 gallon while August RBOB finished up $0.1080 at $3.3927 gallon. The rally in refined products came as the disruption in Middle East shipments clamped down on oil processing, sending refining margins to historic highs. The benchmark domestic 3:2:1 crack spread versus WTI reached a record $70.52 bbl, underscoring the severe operational strain across the global refining system. Industry analysts also noted product markets were reacting more aggressively than crude as the conflict particularly impacted shipment of specialized blending components as well as regional fuel exports. U.S. supply cushions offer little near-term relief. The Energy Information Administration reported this week that nationwide road fuel inventories have drained to their lowest seasonal levels in nearly a decade. Gasoline stockpiles are currently tracking 10% below their five-year historical average. With commercial shipping companies avoiding Persian Gulf loadings and multi-week logistics backlogs mounting, energy markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged structural fuel crunch extending through the remainder of the summer driving season.

Oil is facing a supply crunch — and the war in Iran isn’t the only problem - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has massively disrupted global oil supplies, but it’s not the only factor obstructing trade. Constraints on Russia’s refining system have added to the existing crisis, strategists at J.P. Morgan led by Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note on Thursday. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz started to slowly recover in June after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that extended an existing cease-fire by 60 days. But shipping through the key waterway collapsed again after the two countries resumed attacks, sending oil prices back to levels not seen since before the deal was signed. “At the same time, Russia’s refining system has come under renewed pressure,” the strategists said, noting that refinery runs declined from 3.8 million barrels a day last week to 3.3 million a day this week. That level is 2 million barrels a day lower than last year. See: The U.S. oil reserve is at a 40-year low — but the government says there’s still plenty of breathing room The strain is most obvious in diesel, they noted, with exports from Russia at close to zero, down from an average of almost 800,000 barrels a day in 2025. Related video: US hits Iran with strikes, pushing companies to reroute oil from Hormuz (Fox Business) “From a market perspective, inventories leave little room for error,” the strategists wrote, adding that observable onshore inventories of oil globally, excluding China, have fallen to record lows. They warned that the problem of tightening supply may be about to become even worse. On Tuesday, U.S. senators unveiled a revised Russian sanctions bill that would impose a 100% tariff on the top five buyers of crude oil and natural gas from the country, which include China and India. It also aims to target Russia’s shadow fleet, energy projects and financial institutions. Congress has been urged to pass the bill quickly in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, who drafted it. “Taken together, these dynamics help explain the market’s message: distillate cracks in both the U.S. and Europe have surged toward record highs — an indication that the shock is increasingly becoming a refining story rather than simply a crude supply story,” the strategists said.

Chevron Moves Closer to Iraq's Biggest Oil Prize—and a Hormuz Exit Strategy - Chevron is taking another step toward expanding its footprint in Iraq, and is set to sign two memoranda of understanding on Friday that will move the U.S. supermajor closer to developing the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield and the Nassiriya project. The agreements aren't binding, but they push negotiations forward on what could become one of Chevron's biggest upstream investments in years. West Qurna 2 is no small prize. The southern Iraqi field currently produces about 460,000 barrels per day after Iraq nationalized the asset earlier this year following U.S. sanctions on Russia's Lukoil. Chevron entered exclusive talks for the field in February, and Friday's agreement advances negotiations on the commercial terms needed for a final deal. Nassiriya is smaller today but comes with significant exploration upside. Chevron and Iraq also signed an agreement in principle last year covering the field and four surrounding exploration blocks, giving the company another potential long-term growth platform in one of OPEC's largest producers. The oilfields aren't the only reason Chevron is talking to Baghdad. The company is also working with Iraq on technical studies for new export pipelines that would allow crude to reach the Mediterranean without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron is part of a consortium that signed an agreement earlier this month to evaluate possible routes, including options that could connect Iraq's producing fields with Syria or other regional export corridors. The urgency is obvious. Iraq exports the overwhelming majority of its crude through the Persian Gulf. The Hormuz crisis forced the country to slash production after tankers were unable to leave the Gulf, exposing one of Baghdad's biggest strategic weaknesses. Production capacity doesn't do much good if there's nowhere to send the barrels. The United States has thrown its support behind rebuilding the long-idled Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline linking Iraq to Syria's Mediterranean coast, while other overland routes remain under study. Washington wants American companies involved, and Iraq wants an insurance policy against another Hormuz shutdown. Chevron appears happy to help with both.

Houthis plot to open new front in Iran war - Houthi rebels are preparing to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait on behalf of Iran. A source told The Telegraph of a deliberate Iranian attempt to control “the other side of the Red Sea” and create a scenario similar to its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.Bab el-Mandeb is on the west side of the Arabian Peninsula from Hormuz, and forms a choke point between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.The Houthi rebel group, Tehran’s most capable regional proxy, is laying the groundwork to close the strait, quietly extending its reach to the Horn of Africa, according to sources in Yemen.The Houthis, in Yemen on the north-eastern coast of the strait, will work with al-Shabab, the Somali militant group, to control both sides of the waterway.The aim is to inflict more pain on the global economy and increase pressure on Donald Trump.The source said: “There are a lot of indicators showing co-ordination between the Houthis and al-Shabab. This co-ordination is aimed at totally controlling and blocking the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb when Iran decides in the future.“The Houthis are transferring drone technology to al-Shabab on behalf of Iran, so the Houthis are becoming the leaders of the region.”Both straits are crucial waterways for global energy supplies. Around 10 to 12 per cent of global annual maritime trade flows through Bab el-Mandeb, which leads to and from the Suez Canal.

Saudi Arabia mulls military escalation in response to Houthi threats -Saudi Arabia is weighing different options to deal with the Houthis, who are escalating their threats against the kingdom in a sign officials and analysts say could forebode a return to fighting in Yemen. The kingdom’s defence minister, Khalid bin Salman, has suggested that the US is giving Saudi Arabia leeway to pursue offensive strikes against the Houthis, multiple US and regional officials told Middle East Eye. However, its leadership has not made a decision. One US and one western official said the discussions could point to differences of opinion within the Saudi royal court over how to respond to the Houthi threat as wider fighting between the US and Iran escalates. The discussions come as a four-year ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is tested by a recent exchange of fighting. The Houthis inflamed tensions with Saudi Arabia earlier this month after a flight arrived at Sanaa airport to carry Houthi officials to the funeral of assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Sanaa airport to prevent the plane from returning. The United Nations-backed ceasefire that the Houthis signed with the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government of Yemen has expired, but until now, the sides have generally abided by a framework in which flights to Yemen are from Amman, Jordan, and Cairo, Egypt. US and regional sources told MEE that the original flight that landed in Sanaa included Lebanese, Iranian, Syrian, and Iraqi military experts specialised in drone and missile technologies. The flight to Iran included Houthi officials tapped to undergo training in Iran, along with senior political figures. The Houthis retaliated against the Sanaa attack by firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's southwestern city of Abha earlier this week. A major return to fighting between the two sides would not only add to Yemen’s humanitarian crisis but also shake energy markets and the Saudi economy, which is already navigating the Iran war. Since Iran has attempted to assert its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the main artery for Saudi Arabian oil exports. The kingdom is sending roughly 4.5 million bpd of oil through the Red Sea via its East-West Pipeline. “I’d hate to be a Saudi today. There is no easy solution to Yemen,” Mohammed al-Basha, a US-based Yemen expert, told MEE. “A peace deal [with the Houthis] would mean billions of dollars in reparations, while a return to war has 50-50 odds of a Saudi victory,” he said. The Houthis launched attacks on global shipping in the Red Sea following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel. The group said its attacks were in solidarity with besieged Palestinians in Gaza, and it won support across the Arab and Muslim world. US President Donald Trump ordered a wide-scale bombing campaign against the Houthis in 2025. He eventually stopped the attacks ahead of a visit to the Gulf in response to lobbying by Saudi Arabia, MEE revealed at the time. Both sides have abided by the May 2025 truce at sea. Although the Houthis officially sat out the war that erupted after the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, Gulf and US officials who spoke with MEE widely believe that the Houthis were responsible for some land strikes on Saudi Arabia. A former US official said the larger problem for both sides was that the UN-mandated ceasefire had “long reached its expiration date”, but no alternative has been found to resolve the conflict and advance a political settlement. The Houthis control the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and much of the populated northwest, while Saudi Arabia backs an internationally recognised government based in Aden. “The no war, no peace stalemate has not produced any outcome closer to a political settlement,” Ibrahim Jalal, an independent expert on Yemen and the Arab Gulf, told MEE. “The Houthis' anti-Saudi rhetoric has also flared up.” "All Saudi oil facilities and vital installations will be targets for our missiles and drones if Riyadh gets involved" in striking Yemen again, he said. “Airports for airports, ports for ports, and a blockade for a blockade," he said. Saudi Arabia has sought to shore up US support as tensions rise. The kingdom, like other Gulf states, suffered strikes from Iran in retaliation for the US-Israel war despite lobbying Washington against it.

Saudi-Led Forces Bomb Yemen's Sanaa Airport, Reigniting War With the Houthis - -- Saudi-led forces bombed the international airport in Sanaa, Yemen, on Monday, reigniting the war with Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, which has been in a state of ceasefire that has held relatively well since 2022. The attack was claimed by Yemen’s so-called “internationally recognized government,” which is based in Saudi Arabia and doesn’t have an air force of its own, meaning the strikes were almost certainly launched by Saudi warplanes.m In response, Ansar Allah’s military spokesman, Yahya Saree, vowed Yemen would hit back and said the era of “de-escalation” between the two sides was over. A spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition later claimed that Saudi “air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile threat launched by the terrorist Houthi militia towards the southern region.” Saree then announced that Yemeni forces targeted Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport with a “a number of ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.” Footage of the Saudi attack on Sanaa airport via Al Masirah TV. The purpose of the strikes on the Sanaa airport was to prevent the landing of a plane from Iran carrying a Yemeni delegation that attended the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite the strikes, the plane was rerouted and landed at the airport in the Yemeni Red Sea port city of Hodeidah. The strikes came after the Saudi-led coalition threatened to take action in response to an Iranian flight that landed in Sanaa on July 3. At the time, Ansar Allah said that its forces “repelled” Saudi warplanes attempting to interfere with the flight, and two days later, Houthi fighters launched an offensive against Saudi-backed forces, the heaviest fighting between the two sides in years.While the two sides agreed to a ceasefire in 2022, a long-standing blockade on Yemen that included restrictions on Sanaa airport was only partially lifted, and in recent months, calls have been growing in Yemen for a complete end to the siege.The escalation in Yemen comes after the ceasefire between the US and Iran has collapsed, meaning Yemen could be another front in the regional war. Ansar Allah could also potentially close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a move that would further exacerbate the global economic crisis caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran.The US and Ansar Allah agreed to a ceasefire last year after President Trump conducted a brutal bombing campaign in Yemen for about a month and a half, which failed to stop Yemeni attacks on Israel and the blockade of Israeli shipping in the Red Sea that was being done in response to Israel’s genocidal war and siege on Gaza. Ansar Allah is known for its resilience as it faced a US-backed Saudi/UAE war and blockade from 2015 to 2022, which killed at least 377,000 people, according to UN numbers, and only became a more formidable fighting force in that time as it began successfully striking oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

Yemen's Houthis strike Saudi Arabia's Abha airport with missiles and drones in a sharp escalation — The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport on Monday in response to airstrikes they blamed on Saudi Arabia that struck Sanaa International Airport earlier in the day. No casualties were reported, but the attacks marked an escalation not seen since a Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi-controlled areas several years ago. Saudi Arabian officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the airstrikes in Yemen. Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, in a video statement on Telegram, warned airlines against flying through Saudi airspace, saying these warnings should be taken "seriously until the blockade on Sanaa International Airport is lifted.” The internationally recognized government in Yemen said earlier that the strikes that hit Sanaa International Airport were meant to prevent an Iranian plane from landing. The Houthis vowed to retaliate for the strike, which marked the first major escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia following a period of relative calm. The U.N. Security Council, in an emergency meeting on the developments Monday afternoon, officials expressed concern about the risk of a wider escalation. “Yemen and the wider region cannot afford another cycle of escalation,” U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for political affairs Khaled Khiari told the 15-member council. “We call on all actors to constructively engage in negotiations under UN auspices.” For years, a Saudi-led coalition based in Yemen’s south has fought the Houthis in the north. Saree said on Telegram earlier on Monday that Saudi Arabia launched the airstrikes in what he called the end of a period of “de-escalation.” He warned that “this aggression will not go unanswered or unpunished.” In the latest Telegram update, Saree said the strikes in Sanaa were aimed at “closing it to humanitarian flights carrying patients and stranded individuals to and from Sana’a International Airport.” Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen and forced the government into exile. A Saudi-led coalition, including the United Arab Emirates, intervened the following year to try to restore the government to power. Tensions rose earlier this year between U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE as their yearslong partnership in the war in Yemen broke down, leading to the UAE pulling out of Yemen. The official spokesperson of the Saudi-led Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen, Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, said Monday evening on X that air defenses dealt with ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis toward the southern region without providing further details. The attack on the airport in Sanaa comes after tensions between the two sides flared earlier this month. The Houthis alleged that Saudi planes violated their airspace to try to prevent an Iranian plane from carrying a Houthi delegation to Tehran for the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

IRGC Navy strikes two rogue super tankers misled by US into crossing mined waters of Strait of Hormuz - The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has confirmed that two super oil tankers, misled by American provocations, were struck and disabled after deliberately ignoring repeated warnings and attempting to navigate through a mined route in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IRGC statement on Monday night, the child-killing US regime, which has repeatedly failed to learn from its defeats, once again tried to create chaos by inciting vessels to violate legal shipping lanes. The two rogue super tankers fell for the American deception, switched off their navigation systems, and disregarded multiple warnings issued by the Hormuz Strait Security Control Center, the statement added. By choosing to cross the restricted and mined waters instead of complying with safety regulations, the tankers endangered international maritime traffic and deliberately violated the security protocols of the strategic waterway, it said. The IRGC Navy said that the two vessels were hit and put out of operation. The IRGC Navy stated that any cooperation with the aggressor enemy, which has traveled thousands of kilometers to violate the rights of the people of the region, and any attempt to cross the mined route will bring nothing but regret, heavy damage, delays in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of triggering a global energy crisis. The IRGC emphasized that such reckless actions serve only the interests of those seeking to destabilize the region and will be firmly confronted. earlier on Monday, Iran's highest operational command unit said the Islamic Republic will never allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz following repeated warnings to Washington. The spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant-Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari, made the remarks following comments by US President Donald Trump that Washington could take control of the strategic waterway. "Following previous warnings, we will under no circumstances allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

Oil tankers face ‘worst case scenario’ in Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks on ships, maritime risk CEO says - The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to a “worse-case scenario” for oil tankers as Iran has repeatedly attacked ships over the past week, the CEO of a maritime risk services firm said. “We see the reduction of the volume of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and right now crews of vessels are even more concerned than they were before,” said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-headquartered Marisks, at a Lloyd’s List Intelligence briefing this week. “Nobody is willing to move,” Maniatis said. At least nine ships have come under attack since July 6 as Iran tries to force vessels to navigate Hormuz through its territorial waters rather than a route along Oman’s coast protected by the U.S. military, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency. One seafarer was killed and three were injured in attack on the crude oil tanker Al Bahyah off Oman’s coast on Tuesday, according to the IMO. Eleven mariners were injured the same day in an attack on the Mombasa B, also a crude oil tanker navigating close to Oman. The Iranian attacks have used anti-ship missiles, said Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s biggest shipping associations. “All this resonates with crews and right now they’re just not very happy to go through no matter what is promised to them,” Maniatis said. “It’s not about money anymore. It’s not about any other higher calling. It’s purely about the fear that is governing the decision making right now.” The U.S. military disabled an unladen oil tanker on Wednesday after reimposing its naval blockade against Iran this week, according to U.S. Central Command. The Curacao-flagged M/T Belma ignored multiple warnings as it transited international waters toward Iran’s Kharg Island, Centcom said. The traditional route through the middle of Hormuz, known as the traffic separation scheme, remains too dangerous for ships to use due to the threat of mines, Larsen said. “If a mine detonates, typically that happens under the ship,” he said. “The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it’s extremely dangerous for ships to run into a minefield.” President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Hormuz was open to all ships except those of Iran after the reimposition of the U.S. naval blockade. “It’s open if people want to go through it,” Trump told Fox News in an interview. “We’re not opening it for Iran. That’s the only one it’s closed for. It’s closed for Iran, both in and out, but it’s open now.” But ship tracking firms have observed a steep drop in traffic. Hormuz has largely closed again with just a trickle of ships crossing with their transponders turned off, according to Lloyd’s team of analysts monitoring the strait.Traffic has fallen to a three week low, according data from to the trade intelligence firm Kpler. Ships transits fell to eight on Thursday down from 15 vessels the day prior, Kpler said. More than 100 ships transited Hormuz daily before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. A senior Trump administration official, who requested anonymity because the person wasn’t authorized to speak publicly, told CNBC that ships carrying millions of barrels of oil transited Hormuz on Thursday. Before the war, around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products were exported through the strait. The U.S. has launched six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attacks. Tehran has responded with volleys of missiles targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen are now threatening to shut down ship traffic in the Red Sea, which has become a vital alternative route for Saudi oil exports during the war. “Unfortunately, it looks like we are on a path of escalation and the situation might well grow worse with time,” Larsen told CNBC. The escalation in fighting comes as the U.S. and Iran dispute how Hormuz is supposed to reopen under the memorandum of understanding they signed on June 17. Tehran promised safe passage to vessels in the strait, but the deal did not define which lanes vessels should use. Shipping firms need reliable reassurances from Iran and the U.S. that Hormuz is safe, Larsen said. In the absence of an agreement, the alternative is the U.S. continues to conduct strikes on Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and gunboats, he said. Traffic could increase again if shippers believe the U.S. has successfully degraded the threat from Tehran, the analyst said. Shipping companies have different risk appetites, with some willing to transit Hormuz while others are staying completely away from the strait, Larsen said. But the decision to transit Hormuz is not just up to “the ship owner sitting behind his desk,” the analyst said. “It also requires that the crew actually agree,” he said.

A wave of Iranian nationalism is drowning out its diplomats- A wave of nationalist fervor in Iran is creating a difficult atmosphere for the country’s diplomats, making it harder to agree to U.S. terms to permanently end the fighting and secure much needed relief from sanctions. The regime, rocked by protests early this year and still deeply unpopular with much of the Iranian public, fanned patriotic sentiment to rally support during the heaviest days of the war and amplified it during the recent funeral of its slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Now, hard-line lawmakers, broadcasters and other vocal factions are leveraging those emotions to box in Tehran’s negotiators and limit their capacity to cut deals with the U.S. The dynamic is contributing to America’s inability to open the Strait of Hormuz, the most immediate goal of the preliminary deal to wind down the war that President Trump signed nearly a month ago and one nationalist critics say sells out Iran’s interests. Iran agreed to open the strait to traffic within 30 days. Instead, it has repeatedly fired on ships to enforce hard-liners’ claim that Tehran controls the waterway. Deepening the impasse, Trump on Monday announced the reimposition of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, hoping to pressure the regime to reopen the strait, and the U.S. launched its third consecutive night of strikes against Iran. Attempts over the weekend by the U.S. and mediator Qatar to restart talks and push forward the interim deal were dashed when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps resumed the attacks and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. On Saturday, Mahmoud Nabavian, an Iranian lawmaker and former member of the negotiating team, said the demand to negotiate the future administration of Hormuz was an “obvious and glaring weakness” of the deal. The Revolutionary Guard will “fulfill the right of the Iranian nation over the Strait of Hormuz and exercise exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz, come what may,” he said. Analysts say the Revolutionary Guard is encouraging such sentiments to hang on to the waterway and retain the upper hand at home. “They feel that as long as they can rule Hormuz, they will be calling the shots both with the U.S. and internally,” said Mustapha Pakzad, who advises foreign companies on Iranian geopolitics. “The IRGC hopes fears of foreign attack…will induce some people to put their chips on their number. Nationalism is a convenient temporary sentiment to cling to.” The U.S. and mediators say any attempt by Iranian diplomats to find an understanding on the administration of the strait are being sabotaged by hard-liners. Iranian diplomats have told mediators they would like to find a compromise but their hands are tied. They are under pressure in the streets as well. In regime-managed funeral ceremonies for Khamenei’s burial last week, massive crowds unfurled giant banners that read “kill Trump.” President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, was greeted by chants of “Death to the normalizers” and “Death to the traitors.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was stalked by a crowd that carried red flags, a symbol of revenge, and called him dishonorable as he was pelted with an unknown object. A government spokeswoman later denounced a group for chanting divisive slogans targeting the president and the country’s negotiating team. Days earlier, state broadcaster IRIB, which has long been managed by hard-liners, abruptly cut off lead negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as he tried to make the point that an earlier hard-line president of Iran had also held talks with the U.S. Khamenei’s funeral has also set off a round of calls to avenge his death—not just via military action against the U.S. and Israel, but by hunting down the individuals responsible. An Israeli airstrike killed Khamenei and members of his family in the opening salvo of the war. On Monday, Abbas Moghtadaei, vice chairman of the parliament’s national security commission, said Iran has the right and the capabilities to go after individuals and organizations who ordered or planned the attacks. Hamshahri, a paper published by the hard-line municipal government of the capital, Tehran, ran wanted poster-style images of targets including Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several European leaders. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain supreme leader, who took over the role after his father was killed but wasn’t at his funeral, has joined the calls for retribution. “We have a list of criminals who assassinated our leader and people in the past two wars,” he said Saturday on social media. “The death of these criminals and murderers will not be a natural death in bed.” The Revolutionary Guard and its allies have been helped by Mojtaba Khamenei’s public absence and by his ambivalent stance on negotiations. The new supreme leader has said he didn’t favor talks with the U.S. but allowed them to go ahead as long as Pezeshkian, the president, took responsibility for their outcome. “Mojtaba signaled to Iranian diplomats that they could give it a try but it won’t go anywhere,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “It’s boxing in negotiators with statements that suggest that the path to survival goes through escalation rather than engagement.” Analysts say the propaganda effort seeks to broaden the regime’s support base beyond religious conservatives by de-emphasizing strict moral codes to tap in to resurgent patriotism among parts of the population angered by U.S. and Israeli attacks during the war. It often features women in roles that wouldn’t have been permitted by clerics in previous times. In footage posted mid-June, state media showed a Revolutionary Guard member teaching women wearing heavy lipstick how to handle AK-47 assault rifles. In late May, the Iranian Defense Ministry’s news agency, DEFA, featured a female officer in full camouflage at a meeting of military advisers who had gathered to discuss expanding the conflict beyond the Middle East. A 40-year-old female teacher, who had joined the anti-hijab protests in 2022 and subsequently stopped wearing the veil, said she recently participated in a pro-regime rally in Tehran. “I saw many girls whose clothing would previously have been reprimanded by the government—unveiled, wearing blouses and pants, with manicured nails,” she said. They were waving the Iranian flag. The women were joined by male university students sporting tattoos and T-shirts, Western attire frowned upon by the regime. They chanted, “We are the soldiers of Seyyed Mojtaba,” using an honorific title, she said.

Iran restores traffic on major roads within hours after terrorist US strikes - Iran's Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization says all major road routes across the country remain open and traffic has resumed on damaged sections despite overnight "savage" US attacks targeting key transport infrastructure in southern Iran. In a statement on Friday, the organization said road maintenance crews restored traffic on damaged routes in less than 12 hours after attacks hit transport infrastructure, including several bridges in the south of the country. It said bypasses were rapidly constructed around the damaged sections, allowing vehicles to resume using the affected roads. "Despite the enemy's savage attacks on transportation infrastructure, all road routes across the country remain open and traffic is flowing," the statement said. The announcement came after criminal attacks by the terrorist US military targeted civilian infrastructure across several Iranian provinces from late Thursday into early Friday, including several bridges, killing eight people and injuring 20 others. The attacks primarily struck the provinces of Hormozgan, Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchestan, Khuzestan and Lorestan. They followed US President Donald Trump's threats to target Iran's civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, amid the international community's silence over US war crimes. Hormozgan Province sustained the heaviest casualties. Six bridges in Khamir County were struck, damaging key transport routes linking Bandar Abbas, Bandar Khamir and Lar, as well as roads through Latidan, Kahorestan, Keshar and Maru village. The strikes also hit a railway branch station in Bandar Abbas, while a separate attack targeted the Allah Akbar Hill residential neighborhood in the city. The bridge and railway attacks appeared aimed at severing Bandar Abbas, Iran's largest port, from road and rail links connecting it to the country's central regions and the capital, Tehran. The strikes appeared intended to disrupt the movement of goods needed by Iran's population of around 90 million. Iran's Health Ministry said on Friday that at least 38 people had been killed and more than 400 injured in the latest US attacks. Forty-seven people remain hospitalized, according to the ministry.

Strikes on Lebanon Continue as Israeli DM Says They Are ‘Applying Rafah Model’ - Israeli forces continued to carry out drone strikes across southern Lebanon again this weekend, along with reported artillery strikes against towns around the Tyre District. At least one person was reported killed in incidents, and several others wounded. The one killed person was on a motorcycle near Kfar Roumine, in the Nabatieh District, when he was struck by a drone. Another drone hit a pickup truck transporting garbage around Kfar Dajjal, also around that same district, wounding two people. Other incidents were reported in al-Mansouri, in Tyre District, wounding as many as four, though details are still emerging on that matter. Israeli forces also carried out demolition operations in villages near the border, including Khiam in the Marjayoun District. Mass demolition in the southernmost parts of Lebanon is an ongoing problem, with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz quoted as saying the country was “applying the Rafah Model” on Lebanon, and that southern Lebanon would ultimately turn into Gaza, citing the mass level of destruction inflicted on the Gaza Strip in recent years. Though Israel has at times presented their invasion and occupation of Lebanon as entirely focused on fighting Hezbollah and defending northern Israel, Katz has repeatedly pressed the idea of destroying civilian sites in the south, declaring a few weeks ago that the Shi’ite villages in Lebanon must “disappear.” Katz had similarly said a substantial number of displaced Lebanese civilians would not be allowed to return to their homes, even as the Israeli government rejects accusations of forced population transfers, illegal under international law, on the grounds that technically the civilians weren’t prevented from returning home.

Katz Says Israel Won't Withdraw From Gaza Even If Hamas Disarms and Will Establish 'Nahal' Settlements - Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that the Israeli military won’t withdraw from Gaza even if Hamas disarms and that he plans to establish three settlements in the area of northern Gaza that the IDF has destroyed.“We are not retreating from the Yellow Line,” Katz said on Monday during a visit to northern Gaza with reporters from Israel’s Channel 14. “Unequivocally, as long as Hamas does not truly disarm, and even after that, we remain inside of Gaza to bring up three Nahal outposts (military settlements).”Nahal settlements are a type of Jewish settlement in Israeli-occupied territory that are established by Israeli soldiers with the goal of transitioning them to permanent civilian communities. Katz first vowed in December 2025 that Israel would “never leave” Gaza and would establish Nahala settlements, though he has remained quiet about the plan since then, likely due to international backlash.In his remarks on Monday, Katz said that a permanent Israeli presence was needed in Gaza to “improve the hold and defense of the communities,” referring to Israeli towns near the Gaza border.Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also recently said that plans have been drawn up for the establishment of three Jewish settlements inside Gaza and that he is just waiting on approval from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Katz also boasted of the destruction of Gaza cities during his visit to the northern part of the Strip. When asked how the view of the destruction made him feel, the Israeli minister said, “I feel good. Thank God. This is all the result of a deliberate policy aimed at removing threats. Instead of the raid method—going in and out—the IDF is inside, the terrorists are outside, and the houses are destroyed.”Katz’s plans for Gaza go against the US-backed outline for a peace plan for Gaza that was approved by the UN Security Council, and the US has remained silent as Israel continues to constantly violate the ceasefire deal signed in October 2025, which was meant to lead to the implementation of the full peace plan.

Israeli Forces Attack Southwest Syrian Town of Maariyah - Israel is launching an increasing number of incursions into southwest Syria, targeting both the Quneitra and Daraa Governorates. At least 22 such incursions have already been documented so far this month, with more happening all the time.The highest profile incidents in recent days have been happening in Daraa Governorate, around the village of Maariyah, which is in that little cusp of Syria between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the Jordan border.Israel has been operating in the area in growing numbers and has established multiple military outposts in Syria, one of which is down the road from Maariyah. Protesting the Israeli presence in the area, villagers had blocked the rural road with stones, which the IDF forces later cleared. Later reports also had Israeli troops attacking Maariyah outright, opening fire on the village homes with heavy machine guns. No details have yet emerged on any casualties from the attack, though homes were hit and it caused panic in the small village.In Quneitra, multiple raids have been reported over the past two days, including troops entering Bassali village to search homes and an operation in Muallaqah which saw a temporary checkpoint established. The IDF checkpoints tend to quite temporary, often lasting only a few hours and seemingly accomplishing little but harassing passers-by. One person was reported detained at the checkpoint, but he was released within the hour.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Kyiv bombs 15 more Russian ships on key trade route | The Independent - Ukrainian drones hit 15 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov overnight, including seven tankers, Ukraine's drone forces commander said on Monday. That brings the total number of vessels struck in the past eight days to 105, Robert Brovdi said on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters reported that shipping through the trade route has been suspended as of last week due to the Ukrainian attacks and sources said transit remained restricted on Monday. It is the route for a quarter of Russia’s grain exports. It follows a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow that killed at least three people and injured five according to governor Andrei Vorobyov. Air defence units downed 81 drones ‌over the ‌region overnight, he ⁠added on Monday. Volodymyr Zelensky said officials who allowed weapons warehouses to operate in a residential area outside Kyiv where explosions killed 10 people had been identified and would “be held accountable”. Western allies will seek to secure more air-defence commitments for Ukraine when they meet in Paris today, as shortages have left it increasingly exposed to Russian ballistic missiles, despite recent shifts in momentum on ⁠the battlefield.

Renewed Hormuz hostilities drive ECB rates rethink amid ‘extremely volatile’ outlook Several consecutive days of strikes exchanged between the U.S. and Iran have once again thrown oil prices into the spotlight — and cast uncertainty on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision next week. Investors on Wednesday were repricing for the ECB’s July 22 monetary policy meeting as soaring oil prices have put expectations for a hold in doubt. “The renewed outbreak of military conflict in the Middle East and the fresh rise in oil prices underscore that the situation remains extremely volatile and the uncertainty is similarly high,” Bundesbank President and ECB rate setter Joachim Nagel told Reuters on Wednesday. “It remains advisable to react with caution, but to act decisively if necessary,” he said. “Monetary policy will maintain its vigilant stance.” The ECB slashed interest rates four times in the first half of 2025, taking its key deposit rate from 3% at the start of the year to 2% by mid-June. But last month it was forced to change course, hiking by 25 basis points to its current rate of 2.25%. Headline inflation hovered close to the ECB’s 2% target before the outbreak of the Iran war and then accelerated to a peak of 3.2% in May. Initial estimates show eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% last month despite a 8.7% year-on-year increase in energy costs for the month, as core inflation was restricted to 2.4% — suggesting limited “second-round” inflation effects in the rest of the economy. But energy prices have once again shot higher this week as several consecutive days of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the control of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz reignited fears over oil supply. September Futures for international benchmark Brent crude traded higher again early on Wednesday, above $85 per barrel, having traded closer to pre-war levels around $70 just last week. The price of oil is critical for the eurozone economy, which imported 57% of its energy needs in 2024, according to the most recent available data from Eurostat. But policymakers will also be cautious that an overly restrictive monetary policy stance could tip the eurozone economy into recession after contracting by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Policymakers will also be conscious that initial estimates for second-quarter GDP growth and July inflation will not be available until July 30 and July 31, respectively – meaning next week’s rates decision will be made without access to the most recent data.

Focus on Fracking

Monday, July 20, 2026

SPR at 43 year lo; gasoline supplies at 33 week lo; distillates demand at 58 week low led to the largest build in 6 months

SPR at a new 43 year low; US oil production at an eight month high; gasoline supplies at a thirty-three week low; distillates demand at a fifty-eight week low led to the largest inventory build in six months

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