US inventories of oil and petroleum products, incl the SPR, are the lowest in 22 years; gasoline exports at a 27 week high

US oil prices finished lower for the third time in four weeks after Trump suspended his planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure and announced that a peace deal would be signed shortly…after rising 3.6% to $90.54 a barrel last week after Iran suspended peace talks with the US due to the ongoing Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for July delivery jumped more than $4 on Australian markets on Monday​, as traders were spooked by fresh Israeli strikes on Iran and renewed attacks on Lebanon, and were still up $3 during trading in Dubai after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets renewed fears that ​the fragile ceasefire talks could collapse and prolong ​the shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, but were up less than 2% by 8:15 AM in New York, despite being $5 higher earlier, after President Trump called on Israel to exercise constraint and said that both sides were looking to immediately reestablish a ceasefire, and settled just 76 cents higher at $91.30 a barrel following an announcement from Iran’s military that their wave of attacks on Israel was over….oil prices then fell more than 1% in Asian trading on Tuesday, as traders weighed ​t​he fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran after both sides agreed to halt attacks following an appeal from U.S. President Trump, but moved slightly higher on Middle East markets​, as traders assessed the risk of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel, despite ​t​he recent pause in hostilities reportedly encouraged by US President Trump, and then were down nearly 2% early Tuesday morning in New York after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other, reversing course from the previous day’s short-lived flareup of hostilities between the countries, and settled $3.10 lower at $88.20 a barrel after Israel and Iran said they had halted strikes on each other following an appeal from US President Trump…. ​however, oil prices rose across global markets Wednesday after US President Trump warned that Iran would have to pay the price for being slow to arrive at a peace deal, and traded higher after the United States launched strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, then extended their gains in early US trading after the EIA reported another huge drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and an equally large drop in US commercial oil inventories, and settled $1.83 or 2% higher at $90.03 a barrel after Trump threatened to hit Iran 'very hard'…oil prices jumped on Asian markets on ​T​hursday after the US started new strikes on Iran, and Iran responded by announcing a halt to all vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, putting further strain on the fragile ceasefire, but were heading lower by the time early trading commenced in New York, as traders tried to assess whether fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict between the U.S. and Iran would add to the global supply deficit, or if it just represented geopolitical noise of a familiar kind, ​t​hen dropped sharply during afternoon trading to settle $2.32 lower at $87.71 a barrel after Trump canceled strikes against Iran that had been scheduled for later on Thursday evening….oil prices fell across global markets on Friday after US President Trump announced that he had cancelled the "planned strikes" on Iran and said a deal with Tehran had been approved and would be signed "shortly", and tumbled about 3% to near two-month lows in New York as media reports that a peace deal could be signed as early as Sunday added to the market retreat, and settled $2.83 lower at $84.88 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran neared an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and thus was down 6.3% for the week...

at the same time, natural gas prices also finished lower for the third time in four weeks on a larger than expected inventory increase and mixed weather reports….after falling 1.9% to $3.229 per mmBTU last week on a drop in our LNG exports, and on profit taking following a mid-week rally, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for July delivery opened 9.0 cents lower on Monday as forecasts for waning cooling demand, steady production, and ongoing LNG maintenance signaled for the bears to move in, and slid to an intraday low of $3.097 by 11:05 AM, before rising through the duration of the session to settle 8.2 cents lower at $3.147 per mmBTU, after a outbreak of fighting between Iran and Israel overnight again spooked natural gas markets and pushed European and Asian ​gas prices higher….July natural gas started Tuesday​'s trading 2.2 cents higher​, and hit an intraday high of $3.190 at 10:45AM, as analysts noted mixed fundamentals with expected elevated cooling demand ​were butting up against healthy production, then faded into the afternoon to settle 0.7 cents lower at 3.140 per mmBTU as forecasts indicated that near-term heat would moderate, lowering early-summer power-sector cooling demand….natural gas prices rallied to $3.249 in the opening hour Wednesday, as traders priced-in impending above average temperatures, and settled 4.5 cents higher at $3.185 per mmBTU as strong power burn, late-June heat forecasts, and signs of life in LNG feedgas ​demand gave bulls momentum heading into Thursday’s EIA inventory report….​but July natural gas opened 5.2 cents lower Thursday and fell to trade near $3.110 ahead of the storage report, as short-term forecasts turned cooler overnight, then tumbled further to settle 9.8 cents lower at $3.087 per mmBTU on mixed weather data and a surprisingly large storage build….natural gas prices meandered lower early Friday​, as the market absorbed​ the robust storage injection, rising production, forecasts for moderating heat and global energy uncertainty tied to the Iran war, but mustered modest momentum ​b​y ​midday, as traders weighed rising LNG activity against near-term weather demand weakness, and settled 3.3 cents higher at $3.120 per mmBTU as power generation and LNG exports drove demand, but still left natural gas prices 3.3% lower for the week..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending June 5th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 108 billion cubic feet to 2,686 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 5 billion cubic feet, or 0.2% below the 2,691 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on June 5th of last year, but 151 billion cubic feet, or 6.0% above the five-year average of 2,535 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 5th of June over the most recent five years….the 108 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 101 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, while a bit less than the 110 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, but more than the average 95 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early June week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 5th indicated that even after a ​s​harp decrease in our oil exports, we again needed to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the seventh consecutive week and for the 29th time in fifty-four weeks, in part due to an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for ….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 509,000 barrels per day to average 5,888,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 1,186,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,034,000 barrels per day to 4,840,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,048,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending June 5th, an average of 525,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 9,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 485,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 92,000 barrels per day higher at 13,799,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,332,000 barrels per day during the June 5th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,962,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 5th, an average of 8,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 2,165,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending June 5th averaged a rounded 536,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -536,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Since 124,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 412,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and therefore not very useful.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s 2,165,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 1,033,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 1,132,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the eleventh consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR, including the three largest in SPR history, following a nearly continuous string of weekly additions to the SPR from September 2023 to February 2026, which had followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023…As the result of the recent draws on the SPR and with total fuel inventories​ tracking near multi-year lows, our Total Supplies of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including the SPR fell to 1,559,930,000 during the week ending June 5​th, the lowest since April 23rd, 2004….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports slipped to 5,881,000 barrels per day last week, which was 5.8% less than the 6,240,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports fell to 5,190,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 38.4% more than the 3,750,000 barrel per day average that we were importing last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 92,000 barrels per day lower at 13,799,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 90,000 barrels per day higher at 13,385,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 2,000 barrels per day higher at 414,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 5.3% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 42.3% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 95.3% of their capacity while processing those 16,962,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 5th, up from 94.7% the prior week, as refineries gear up for peak summertime production levels….the 16,962,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was 1.5% less than the 17,226,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending June 6th of 2025, and were 0.6% less than the 17,064,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending June 7th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 93.2%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 296,000 barrels per day to 9,720,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 5th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 515,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was virtually unchanged from the 9,718,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending June 6th of last year, but 5.4% less than the gasoline production of 10,276,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending June 7h, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 5,204,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 98,000 during the prior week.  After four straight production increases, our distillates output was 6.3% more than the 4,897,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending June 6th of 2025, but 0.7% less than the 5,239,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending June 7th, 2019....

With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the second time in seventeen weeks, increasing by 186,000 barrels to 215,141,000 barrels during the week ending June 5th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 3,364,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 137,000 barrels per day to 8,731,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 208,000 barrels per day to a 27 week high of 1,143,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 66,000 barrels per day to 714,000 barrels per day, while …  After forty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 5.8% lower than last June 6th’s gasoline inventories of 228,300,000 barrels, and about 6% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s modest increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the thirteenth time in nineteen weeks, decreasing by 200,000 barrels to 102,101,000 barrels during the week ending June 5th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 1,502,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 396,000 barrels to 3,864,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 9,000 barrels per day to 130,000 barrels per day, and while our exports of distillates fell by 119,000 barrels per day to 1,499,000 barrels per day... After 25 additions to distillates inventories over the past 49 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 6.2% lower than the 108,884,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on June 6th of 2025, and about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, despite the drop in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 27th time over the past year, decreasing by 7,227,000 barrels over the week, from 441,686,000 barrels on June 5th to 433,712,000 barrels on May 29th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 7,974,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 5% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still 22% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of June over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies had been less extreme until the onset of the Iran war, and as of this June 5th were 1.4% below the 432,415,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on June 6th of 2025, and were 7.2% less than the 459,652,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on June 7th of 2024, and 7.1% less than the 459,205 ,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on June 2nd of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was down by one over the week ending June 12th, the first decrease in eight weeks, as the count of rigs targeting oil was up by two, but the number of rigs targeting natural gas was down by three…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of June 12th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (June 5th) and this week’s (June 12th) count, the third column shows last week’s June 5th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 13th of June, 2025…

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i'm including Ohio data center news here so no one misses it...

Ohio Utica Shale Attracted Another $2.9B Investment Jan-Jun 2025 - Marcellus Drilling News - JobsOhio, a private, nonprofit corporation that works on behalf of the state to drive job creation and new capital investment in Ohio by attracting business, contracts its economic research to Cleveland State University (CSU) to monitor the Utica Shale industry. JobsOhio released the latest CSU twice-a-year report yesterday (full copy below). It shows that Ohio’s shale energy sector drew another $2.9 billion in direct investment between January and June 2025, pushing cumulative investment in the Utica since 2011 to nearly $117.5 billion. All private money! It's massive.

Utica Shale Investments Increased by $2.9B in First Half of 2025 – Youngstown Business Journal Daily  – A new study published by Cleveland State University’s Levin College of Public Affairs and Education shows Ohio’s shale-energy sector attracted approximately $2.9 billion in direct investment between January and June 2025, pushing cumulative investment since 2011 to nearly $117.5 billion. The Shale Investment Dashboard, published twice a year and commissioned by JobsOhio, captures direct spending across the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors of the industry in Ohio’s Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation. Upstream activities – including drilling, roads, lease operating expenses, royalties and lease bonuses – accounted for approximately $2.7 billion of the total investment during the first six months of 2025.The study found that 113 new wells were drilled during the period. Harrison County led the state with 34 new wells, followed by Carroll County with 21 and Belmont County with 13. Meanwhile, energy companies secured an additional $203.5 million in new or renewed lease agreements from landholders and invested another $1.34 billion in new drilling programs across the basin. While drilling activity declined compared with the second half of 2024, royalty payments increased to approximately $979 million as natural gas prices strengthened and oil production increased, the report says. The report also notes that despite softening oil prices during the period (prior to the war in Iran), production efficiencies – driven in part by artificial intelligence and the Utica’s structural cost advantages relative to other shale plays – are likely to sustain oil-related development. Production data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas also indicates that total gas-equivalent shale production in the first half of 2025 was 4.75% lower than the second half of 2024. This decrease was driven almost entirely by a 7.4% decline in natural gas production; oil production increased by 18.8% over the same time frame. Wells with the highest average oil production during the first half of 2025 were generally concentrated in a corridor angling southwest from western Columbiana County to northern Noble County, data show. Sixteen wells reported oil production greater than 1,500 barrels per day – considered very high – while 24 wells registered high productivity rates of between 1,000 and 1,500 barrels per day. An accompanying map shows that the wells with productivity greater than 1,500 barrels of oil per day were located in Columbiana and Carroll counties during the first half of 2025.  Midstream investment totaled approximately $161.2 million during the first half of 2025, down from $280.1 million in the second half of 2024. Despite this decrease, the report shows continued investment in critical infrastructure supporting Ohio’s energy sector.Spending focused primarily on gathering systems, transportation infrastructure, compression and dehydration facilities needed to support ongoing production and distribution activities. Of this total, an estimated $26.4 million was invested in gathering lines and $134.8 million in compression upgrades. Construction began in 2025 on more than 30 miles of high-pressure intrastate pipeline – multiple projects intended to deliver gas to power generation facilities serving data center demand in central Ohio.Direct downstream investment remained modest in the first half of 2025, totaling approximately $300,000, primarily reflecting the opening of a liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, fueling station in Ohio.The report identifies growing electricity demand – particularly from data centers – as a significant driver of future gas-fueled power generation investment in Ohio.  More than 700 megawatts of utility-scale gas-fired generation received final construction approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board in 2025, including the 200-megawatt Socrates South project, which broke ground in June 2025. Since the first quarter of 2025, more than 2 gigawatts of additional gas-fired generation projects have come before the OPSB for consideration, signaling continued investment opportunities tied to Ohio’s growing energy needs.“In 2025, increased investment into drilling in Ohio’s oil province was the most significant story for Ohio’s oil and gas business,” said Andrew Thomas, director of the Energy Policy Center at Cleveland State. “Oil made up 12% of total Ohio gas-equivalent production by the end of 2025 – up from around 7% in 2024. We can expect to see this trend continue in 2026. However, anticipated new investment into downstream power generation may also soon induce more gas wells to be drilled.” The increase in energy demand – accelerated by future data center development eyed for the state – is also likely to boost investment in the future, said J.P. Nauseef, JobsOhio president and CEO.“More than $117 billion in overall investment in shale resources demonstrates the strength of Ohio’s energy economy and the competitive advantage of our natural gas resources,” he said. “As demand for electricity continues to rise, Ohio is well-positioned to support future growth with abundant energy resources, proven infrastructure and a business climate that encourages investment.”

OpenAI in Talks to Lease OH Data Center, Largest Gas Power Plant in U.S. -- Marcellus Drilling News - - In February, President Donald Trump unveiled a record-breaking $33 billion natural gas power plant in Piketon (Pike County), Ohio, to be operated by SB Energy, a subsidiary of Japan’s SoftBank (see Trump Announces Largest-Ever U.S. Gas-Fired Plant Coming to Ohio). This 9.2-gigawatt facility—the largest in U.S. history—is designed to create thousands of jobs and support the surging energy needs of data centers and artificial intelligence applications. Several media sources are now reporting that OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is in discussions to lease the data center that will be powered by the gas-fired power plant.

OpenAI weighs leasing Ohio data center with Nvidia backing, The Information reports (Reuters) - OpenAI is in talks to lease a proposed 10-gigawatt data center campus on federal land in Ohio, in a deal ‌that could include financial backing from Nvidia, The Information reported on Tuesday, citing two people with direct knowledge of the discussions. Here are some details:

• The campus could cost at least $500 billion to build, based on current prices ⁠for chips, labour, power and other inputs, the report said.
• OpenAI would control the equipment at the facility under a 20-year lease, with payments starting once operations begin; the first phase is expected in 2028, the report added.
• The facility, among the largest of its kind, would be developed by SB Energy, a unit of SoftBank, on Department of Energy land ‌in ⁠southern Ohio.
• Nvidia is expected to supply hardware in the facility and provide a financial guarantee for OpenAI's lease and SB Energy's financing, according to the report.
• Reuters could not immediately verify the ⁠report. OpenAI and Nvidia did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment outside regular business hours.
• Earlier this year, the ChatGPT maker paused ⁠its proposed 'Stargate' data centre project in the UK, citing regulatory hurdles and high energy costs.
• Separately, Apollo and Blackstone ⁠are financing a $35 billion AI capacity expansion for Anthropic using Broadcom chips, Reuters reported this week.

Ohio lawmakers unveil data center regulations   — Ohio lawmakers have unveiled legislation aiming to regulate the state's consistently growing data center development. Substitute House Bill 646, which is now nearly fifty pages, was created after just a few weeks of committee hearings. "The Joint Data Center Study Committee has done its job," Senate Finance Chair Brian Chavez (R-Marietta), who is also the co-chair of the data center committee, said. The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard Among many provisions, the legislation creates an electric rate class for data centers, trying to ensure that the cost of generation, transmission and distribution is paid by the companies. "Make sure the ratepayers are kept harmless, held harmless, and that data centers pay for whatever they're causing," Chavez said. It also requires electric distribution utilities to file a data center tariff before the Public Utilities Commission. This allows the PUCO to consider grandfathering current contract agreements while reviewing the tariff case. It also creates a collaboration surety bond that data centers must deposit with the tax commissioner. It also limits the size of new sales tax breaks for projects. Currently at 100%, it would go down to 50% generally. If the projects are built on brownfields and can power themselves, they could receive 75%. However, this won’t apply to any of the companies with existing contracts, like Meta, Google and Amazon, ones that state Sen. Kent Smith (D-Euclid) says go for decades. "If we pull the tax percentage back from 100% to 0%, 76% of the market is not affected because of these deals that those three signed in the Kasich administration," Smith said. House Speaker Matt Huffman (R-Lima) has been trying to eliminate the sales tax exemption for a year now. Figures from the Ohio Department of Taxation show the state provided almost $1.57 billion in sales-tax exemptions on purchases of data center equipment and construction materials last year. That’s nearly 12 times what state officials initially expected, according to estimates produced by the tax department in late 2024 as part of Ohio’s budgeting process. This tax break has to end," he said. The general assembly actually passed an elimination of the data center sales tax exemption in the last budget. But Gov. Mike DeWine vetoed it. For months, the lawmakers have been debating overriding his decision. I asked Huffman if moving to 50% or 75% was enough for him, or if he wanted to still push for an override. "Well, I don't think it's practical and perhaps even possible at this point to get a veto override," Huffman responded. He said that the labor unions don't want an override, and that is preventing enough members from voting to supersede the governor's veto. He seemed to accept a 50% exemption, as long as data centers comply with regulations, and to "incentivize good behavior." "I think 75% is too high," Huffman said. "We'll hopefully get a good product out that will benefit the public, but it will begin collecting taxes from folks who can afford to pay them, obviously." One of the major complaints from environmental groups was the water usage. The bill requires that facilities utilize a closed-loop water system or use “best practices for water conservation and efficiency.” Additionally, date centers are required to report any "anomalies" detected through their water quality monitoring systems. Another big topic is transparency, and companies asking public officials to sign non-disclosure agreements. "The bill has nothing really about NDAs, doesn't outlaw that, does nothing to make public officials accountable to their constituents," state Sen. Bill DeMora (D-Columbus) said.

Ohio lawmakers introduce sweeping new data center legislation • Ohio lawmakers unveiled a sweeping data center bill Tuesday that reins in incentives and addresses several other public concerns. Drawing on testimony from the Select Committee on Data Centers, Ohio state Sen. Brian Chavez put together a laundry list of changes and then grafted them onto a measure originally meant to study the issue. It’s a significant revision of state policy, touching on tax breaks, nondisclosure agreements, water use and testing, utility billing, and potential impacts on local governments. Despite some quibbles, lawmakers and witnesses found a lot to like in the initial proposal. But given the rapid timeline Chavez envisions for passage — potentially moving to a vote on the Senate floor one day after introduction — opportunities to tweak the language are scarce. Ohio state Sen. Bill DeMora, D-Columbus, complained about the rapid timeline. “Anything the legislature does in a swift amount of time ends up being bad for everybody,” he said, “because there are always problems with it.” Currently, data center projects can apply for an 100% sales and use tax exemption. It’s a discretionary program, but it has ballooned to roughly $1.6 billion in the last year. The proposal would generally cut that tax break in half, but projects that build on brownfields and bring their own power are eligible for a 75% tax break. The bill also caps local property tax abatements for data centers at 50% and eliminates access to Ohio’s 30-year mega project job creation grant. Data center developers’ use of nondisclosure agreements has drawn sharp criticism, and the bill includes a provision stating NDAs do not supersede public records law. On the water use front, the measure directs the Ohio EPA to develop a water quality testing plan and report “any anomalies” detected as part of its water monitoring program. Data centers, meanwhile, would be required to track and report water usage to state regulators, and employ water conservation best practices including closed loop cooling systems. Under the bill, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio would create a data center rate class. Similar to the data center tariff the PUCO approved for AEP Ohio last year, the move is meant to apply costs associated with power generation, distribution and transmission to data centers. Another protection included in the proposal is a surety bond equal to the average salary of all a data centers workers over a ten year period. Chavez described the provision as a way to give “financial insurance to local governments and communities impacted by the development.” The Ohio Manufacturer’s Association is currently challenging AEP’s data center tariff in the Ohio Supreme Court, and the group wasn’t thrilled with the idea of extending that approach to the rest of the state’s utilities. Speaking on behalf of OMA, energy consultant John Seryak explained tariffs spread costs over an extended period of time rather than requiring developers to pay the full amount of their impact up front. “We see that as pretty workable,” Seryak said, because there’s little opportunity to shift costs to other consumers. But by implementing a separate rate class, those costs get spread over several years. Seryak pointed to one project in AES Ohio’s territory that would require roughly $230 million supplemental equipment. “By the time that’s financed over 40 years, with return on equity and interest payments, it’s about $850 million. One project. This tariff would recover only $300 million of that,” he said. Seryak also contends the tariff’s minimum demand payments could just juice the overall load forecast — forcing utilities to plan for greater capacity which is then spread across all ratepayers. Making data centers pay a minimum amount each month also reduces the incentive to use power efficiently. Nolan Rutschilling from the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund urged lawmakers to include explicit directives for the PUCO about an upcoming backstop auction. The regional grid operator PJM Interconnection will hold the auction this September to secure 15 gigawatts of new power generation to meet growing demand driven by data centers. Those costs will get passed on, and PJM has urged states to develop regulations to ensure the costs are borne by data centers. Without them, the grid operator warned, “it is possible that these costs will be allocated to other consumers in the states, including residential consumers.” “It’s entirely possible that this large load tariff could address that issue,” Rutschilling said, “but I’m urging just some clarifying language to ensure that it does and to ensure that the PUCO undertakes this matter in a timely fashion.” Cathy Cowan Becker from Save Ohio Parks said there were many good provisions in the bill, but “we’d like data centers to meet their energy demand, at least some of it, with carbon free energy.” Many facilities rely on diesel backup generators, “which are quite polluting,” she said while battery storage would generate no additional carbon emissions. Quibbles weren’t confined to public testimony. DeMora complained the bill “does nothing” on nondisclosure agreements. Instead of banning them, it simply states an NDA can’t “prohibit or otherwise limit a public record from being made available.” “They might say that you can find out if there’s an NDA,” DeMora insisted, “but the bill does nothing to stop NDAs.” Meanwhile, Ohio state Sen. Jerry Cirino, R-Kirtland, worried lawmakers might be doing something that’s “a detriment to data centers coming in and negotiating with local governments.” The Senate Energy Committee is lined up to advance the bill Wednesday morning, with the goal of voting the measure through the full Senate later that day.

Ohio Republicans back off effort to kill tax credit for data centers - Republican lawmakers in Ohio have backed off their efforts to reduce or eliminate a sales tax break for the technology behemoths behind the data center boom here, which cost the state $2 billion in 2025 alone in lost state and local sales tax revenue. Revelations about the $2 billion figure – lawmakers say they had no clue how big the tax credit had gotten in the last few years – have stirred the General Assembly into overdrive over the past few weeks. A joint committee formed to study the issue has met for more than 18 hours since May 27, fielding testimony from state, local, industry and union officials, plus the public. But as the clock neared 10 p.m. Wednesday in the last scheduled session before the November elections, the General Assembly abruptly pulled a vote on the committee’s much-hyped data center legislative package. The legislation would have reduced the size of any new tax breaks to data centers, although it wouldn’t impact any existing tax exemptions or abatements. Its implosion indicates either a political inability or unwillingness to cut into a lucrative tax break for players behind the meteoric artificial intelligence sector. This all amounts to a major win for the tech developers, which state officials entirely exempted from nearly $1.6 billion in 2025 from Ohio’s statewide 5.75% sales tax, plus another $446 million from local sales taxes, according to the state Department of Taxation. The combined figure was about $722 million in 2024. House Speaker Matt Huffman, a Lima Republican, told reporters late Wednesday that Senate leaders pulled the vote because House Republicans wanted to eliminate – and not reduce – the tax breaks for data centers. “There’s some sore elbows here over, ‘Hey wait a minute, we keep finding out what a great deal these guys have. Why would we give them additional tax exemption?’” Huffman said, per the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau.  For some of the biggest names in the industry – Google, Meta and Amazon – those exemptions are worth $600 million in total by the time they mature over their 40-year lifespan, per newly released data from the state’s economic development office. All told, Ohio has agreed to at least $2.3 billion in state sales tax exemptions to 18 companies, but officials warn the real dollar number could be “significantly higher.” And while statewide property tax abatement data is not available, most data centers strike long-term deals with local governments that drastically reduce their local property tax bills as well. For instance, in New Albany, the epicenter of the local data center economy, there are 17 data centers, all of whom have been granted property tax abatements of between 65% and 100% over 15-year periods. New awareness about the ballooning nature of the tax breaks has renewed political interest in killing them, given public opinion polling and overwhelmingly negative public hearings indicate data centers have grown increasingly unpopular with voters. Republicans passed legislation last year that would have ended the state sales tax exemption. Gov. Mike DeWine vetoed the bill, emphasizing the tens of billions of dollars data centers have spent building facilities in Ohio and the importance of the credit in their siting decisions. Last year, lawmakers – relying on estimates of the size of the tax breaks that turned out to be dramatic underestimations by a factor of more than 10 – voted to end the sales tax break entirely. Gov. DeWine vetoed the provision. While Huffman has previously expressed interest in overriding the governor’s veto, on Tuesday he acknowledged he didn’t have the required 60 votes.

Tax dispute derails Ohio effort to regulate data centers -  - A rush to pass sweeping data center regulations in Ohio hit a snag this week when legislative leaders couldn’t reach agreement on proposed tax incentive reforms.Republican majorities in the House and Senate failed to find common ground on what — if any — tax breaks the Buckeye State should offer to lure data center development. The impasse means the Legislature is unlikely to revisit the issue again until the fall.The setback deals a blow to some residents and state officials who wanted the Legislature to act quickly. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) last month paused sales tax exemptions originally established in 2014 following news reports that data centers received $1.6 billion in tax breaks last year — far exceeding earlier state tax department estimates. Revamping the tax exemption was a centerpiece of legislation passed Wednesday by the Senate.

Who’s behind Ohio’s continuing push to subsidize data centers? We want names. - cleveland.com Despite the growing voter anger about them, some Ohio lawmakers still want to subsidize data centers with billions of tax dollars, and Today in Ohio podcast hosts want to know who they are. Wednesday’s dramatic collapse of a state House data center bill exposed a rift among lawmakers, with some truly working to represent their angry constituents by demanding an end to subsidies for the electricity-hogging facilities.Today in Ohio podcast hosts, though, want to know which lawmakers still support subsidies, because they are the ones in the pockets of big tech and the electric companies.A bill to finally regulate the out-of-control centers looked headed for passage, even though it had big weaknesses. But the big subsidies for the centers that remained in the bill were a line in the sand for some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The bill collapsed, and now lawmakers say they’ll try again in two weeks.   “This is ridiculous, to give these things any subsidy whatsoever,” said host Chris Quinn. “They’re not economic development. We talked about it over and over. And the fact that there are people still pushing to subsidize them tells me there are still people in the pockets of the utilities and big tech.” Quinn demanded know exactly which lawmakers were still fighting to preserve that 50% subsidy for some of the wealthiest corporations in the world: “Who are the legislators pushing for that 50 percent subsidy? Because they’re the bad guys. They’re the ones that are in the pockets of the companies. They’re the ones that are doing the bidding of the wealthy elite instead of thinking about the people back home.”The failed bill wasn’t without merit. Host Laura Johnston pointed out that it included some genuinely useful provisions: new water use standards requiring closed-loop cooling systems, and rules requiring data centers to arrange their own power. But even those provisions fell short. Quinn noted that a data center buying power from existing generators doesn’t actually ease the burden on the grid — it just shifts the demand around while ratepayers still pay higher rates because of short supplies.Then there’s the public records problem. The bill’s language would have said NDAs don’t supersede public records law — but Quinn argued that’s not nearly strong enough. Without an absolute declaration that any data center contract must be fully public, communities and media outlets will be fighting endless court battles while companies and municipal officials hide behind trade secret exemptions.Johnston said the law seems to be more aimed at illusion that reform. Lawmakers want to be able to tell their angry constituents that they did something about the data centers.The populist anger surrounding data centers is growing, with less than five months until Election Day. Voters across Ohio are furious about rising electricity rates, water concerns, and the sense that big corporations are getting sweetheart deals while everyday Ohioans pay more.The Today in Ohio crew has been covering the issue relentlessly, repeatedly showing how Ohioans get almost no benefit from the billions of dollars elected leaders have handed over to big tech companies. Listen to Thursday’s discussion here.

Ohio farmers fear new proposal would allow data centers to take property - WEWS — A new proposal by a business trade group is causing Ohio farmers to fear that the state and utility companies could take private property to build data centers. This idea would also allow entities to take the land before the owner gets paid. In a document I obtained, the Ohio Business Roundtable, a powerful trade group that lobbies at the Statehouse, recommended that lawmakers change eminent domain law, and “should extend possession authority to energy infrastructure projects once public use and necessity have been established.” "We are aware of efforts to further erode the limited protections that landowners have, allowing for quick take of property without first paying for the property and determining a landowner’s rights and compensation through a court of law," the Ohio Farm Bureau’s Evan Callicoat said. The Farm Bureau isn't opposed to data centers, but they are opposed to a violation of property rights, Callicoat said. He fears that with this proposed idea, it's broad enough that farmers could lose their land to data centers, not getting paid for it for months or years. The Roundtable's Nick Rhodes said that’s not how it is meant to be used. "That wouldn't really meet the threshold of public use; there is the question of infrastructure, and I think that's an open question," Rhodes said. The program is called 'deposit and build,' and it's modeled after a system that 45 other states use. Right now, eminent domain law allows for federal, state and local governments to take property for public use. The Ohio Power Siting Board controls the installation of utility facilities, including power lines, some gas pipelines, and wind farms. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio can also help utility companies acquire land. A utility will approach a homeowner for land, and must provide them with a "fair" market price. If the owner refuses to sell, the utility company will take them to court and will need to determine "necessity" for the land. If a court sides with the utility company, deeming it necessary to take, the appraised value of the land is given to a court account. However, the owner can appeal this decision to fight for more money. While this court battle is going on, construction is not allowed to begin. Rhodes said that once the court determines that the state or utility company can have the land, construction should be allowed to begin. Currently, these projects could be delayed for years by the court process, he added. "The entity should be able to take possession and proceed with their project, and then compensation appeals can continue," Rhodes said. Landowners deserve their day in court, Callicoat said, adding that no one should be taking over land before money changes hands. "To allow any other type of development to have that type of structure and process would just be very, very bad for our state," he added in an interview. "Our farmers are definitely concerned about that." Data center companies do not hold the power of eminent domain, but Callicoat says that this version could eventually allow for it. "Many of the services and utilities that they require do hold that authority," he said. I asked state Sen. Brian Chavez what he thought about the deposit and build idea. "That's a very hot topic," Chavez responded. "I don't think that we're ready to address anything like that in such a short time span." Still, I pressed for his view. "Do you agree with the people who are speaking today and the first day who say that data centers are part of a public good?" I asked him. "I don't know how you would quantify a public good, but it's a public necessity," the Republican responded. "They're a part of our lives and everything that we're doing." He noted the cameras all filming him, adding that the data must go somewhere. "It's ubiquitous," Chavez said. "It's a necessity." If data centers are a necessity, that could pave the way for leniency in taking over land, Callicoat said. Even if data centers aren't the main target for the eminent domain change, he said his members won't support a takeover of their land, one where they won't even get money for years.

Illinois Joins Ohio in Ordering Pause on Data Center Tax Credits --Governor JB Pritzker issued an order pausing state tax incentives for data centers in Illinois after the state legislature stalled his plan to keep data-center energy costs from affecting local residents’ bills.Pritzker, a Democrat seeking his third term, said his order was in response to the legislature’s failure to raise data centers’ electricity rates, given their high energy usage, which he asked them to do in February. He plans to push the issue during the veto session in mid-November. “Data centers are asking just too much for too little in return, whether it’s electricity or clean water,” Pritzker said in a video posted on X. “We can’t let them cause our utility bills to go up.” Ohio paused tax incentives for data centers on Wednesday. Governor Mike DeWine ordered a halt to a program offering tax breaks while a committee studies the economic impact of the projects. The governor’s order on Friday also comes amid growing opposition to data centers. Development projects worth about $64 billion have been delayed or canceled across the US due to community pushback, according to industry researcher Data Center Watch. In January, the city council in Naperville, Illinois, voted down plans for a proposed data center in the Chicago suburb, where many residents expressed fears that the project would increase their water and energy costs. Pritzker’s move puts him in opposition to a core Democratic constituency: organized labor, which has called for the tax breaks to continue. Unions support the incentives so that their members can build the data centers. Climate Jobs Illinois, an umbrella group representing 15 unions, issued a statement on Friday calling on Pritzker to reverse his pause. “This pause does nothing to lower utility bills, protect the grid, or advance clean energy. Instead, it will send billions of dollars in investment and thousands of union jobs to Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio — states that sit on the same electrical grid, where those data centers will be built anyway, just without Illinois workers,” the group said in its statement. Pritzker’s order won’t affect agreements entered into before July 1, and companies are still able to seek local tax relief support. The state provided almost $1 billion in tax incentives between 2020 and 2024, according to a report from the state’s Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity. Illinois has seen more than $15 billion in investments from data centers.

2 PA Towns Show How to Move Forward with Data Center Projects -- Marcellus Drilling News - -We are encouraged by recent developments in two Pennsylvania townships, one in northeast PA, the other in southwest PA, with respect to moving forward with data center projects. We get it. People are up in arms, some feeling as though data centers are being “forced” on them by less-than-transparent builders. Noise. Lights. Water usage. All are concerns. However, as we’ve stated many times, reasonable people can work together, sort through the issues, and move these projects along. That’s what we’re seeing in Olyphant, PA, a suburb of Scranton in Lackawanna County, and in South Strabane Township in Washington County.

PA DEP Issues Permit for 8-Mile Water Pipe for EQT Shale Drilling -- Marcellus Drilling News - Back in March, MDN alerted you to a potential new water pipeline coming in Lycoming County, PA, for EQT shale drilling (see 3 New PA Water Pipelines Coming to Support More Shale Drilling). The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) advertised for comments on a plan to issue a Chapter 105 Encroachment Permit for an 8-mile-long, 24-inch water pipeline project. Good news: The permit is now issued.

Eureka Resources Charged with 7 Crimes for PA Wastewater Leaks -Marcellus Drilling News - The troubles continue to pile up for Eureka Resources and its now-closed frack wastewater treatment facilities in Pennsylvania — two in Lycoming County and one in Bradford County. In March, the PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) assessed two fines against Eureka for violations of cleanup deadlines at two facilities, totaling $100,000 (see PA DEP Fines Eureka Resources $100K for Wastewater Violations). Eureka has not paid the fines, and the DEP has given the company 10 days to pay, “or else.” But that’s not all. PA Attorney General Dave Sunday recently filed seven criminal charges against Eurkea related to its now-closed facility in Bradford County.

FERC Approves PJM Fast-Track Review for 20 Gas-Fired Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News - - In February 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a plan by PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest electric grid (which covers all or parts of 13 states, including PA, OH, and WV), to fast-track the addition of new gas-fired power plants (see FERC Approves PJM Plan to Fast-Track New Gas-Fired Power Plants). Then, last October, PJM proposed an even faster fast-track plan to add up to 10 new power generation sources per year for the next two years (see PJM Launches Proposal to Fast-Track New Gas-Fired Power Plants). The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved that plan on Tuesday

Talen Files with PJM to Add More Gas-Fired Power in Montour County - Marcellus Drilling News - - Earlier this year, the board of commissioners in Montour County, PA, voted unanimously to reject Talen Energy’s request to rezone empty agricultural land near Talen’s Montour Power Plant for a proposed data center (see Antis Convince Montour County to Reject Talen Data Center Rezoning). The decision followed community concerns stoked by lying groups like Food & Water Watch regarding “potential environmental impacts” on the nearby Montour Preserve. Talen is now informing the board that it will file an application to expand its power generation facility with two new gas-fired power units, with no mention of a data center.

8 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Jun 1 – 7-- Marcellus Drilling News - Last week was a disappointing week for new permits issued to drill shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica. The M-U region received just 8 new drilling permits from June 1 - 7, down from 30 permits issued two weeks ago. The main reason for the disappointing low number is that the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) reported no new permits issued, which it sometimes does (and then "catches up" in the following week). Last week, Pennsylvania issued 7 permits, and West Virginia issued just 1 new permit. The drillers who received new permits included EQT, Expand Energy, and Vickery Energy. Doddridge County | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Vickery Energy Partners | Westmoreland County | Wyoming County (PA)

U.S. Propane Stocks Continue to Build at a Slower-Than-Normal Pace | -The EIA reported a 1.1-MMbbl build in U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended June 5, below industry expectations for a 2.3-MMbbl build and the average build for the week of 2.4 MMbbl. Inventory builds since early April have generally been smaller than is typical for this time of year. Total U.S. propane/propylene inventories now stand at 84.5 MMbbl, which is 18.5 MMbbl (28%) above the same week in 2025, 21.1 MMbbl (33%) above the five-year average, and 9.0 MMbbl (12%) above the five-year maximum for the week.

Big Green Lies to Locals in Peekskill re Algonquin Pipe Expansion - Marcellus Drilling News --Big Green groups rallied Tuesday in Peekskill (Westchester County, NY) against Enbridge’s proposed Project Beacon, a natural gas pipeline expansion that would increase capacity on the Algonquin Gas Transmission line. Radicals lied by saying the project would “burden ratepayers” already facing high living costs. How do you figure? Algonquin is a transmission pipeline, and its expansion will be paid for by Enbridge (and its shareholders), not by increasing local utility rates. Yet these liars are never called out for their false statements by the media.

Trump Says Gov. Hochul Welched on Deal to Build Constitution Pipe -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, President Trump accused New York Governor Kathy Hochul of reneging on her pledge to allow the 125-mile Constitution Pipeline project to be built in the Empire State. The project was canceled in 2020 after New York repeatedly rejected the necessary permits. President Trump brokered a deal with New York Governor Kathy Hochul to resurrect the project last year (see Trump Deal Trades NY Offshore Wind for Constitution, NESE Pipes). She later publicly denied doing a deal to allow pipelines for fear of alienating her nutball left-wing base of voters (see White House Claims NY Gov. “Caved” on Pipelines, Hochul Says No). But everyone knows she DID do a deal. And now, Trump says she’s welching on that deal.

New Pipelines Set to Flow Marcellus Gas to Northeast & New England -- Marcellus Drilling News -   There’s plenty of cheap, abundant, clean natural gas available in the Marcellus/Utica region. One of the biggest challenges (for drillers and landowners) has been moving those molecules to markets that need them, like New York State and New England. Every single inch of a pipeline project in the northeast is fought over, with radicalized environmentalists using lawfare as their favorite tactic to oppose projects. Their resistance is based on the false belief that fossil fuels like natural gas are somehow evil. But even though the enviro-left has done its best, there are several pipeline projects in the works that will flow molecules from the M-U into and through New York and into New England.

Movin’ Out – The Pipeline Projects That Will Move More Natural Gas Through (and Out of) the Northeast --The Marcellus/Utica still has vast amounts of economically recoverable natural gas to supply the ongoing surge in demand from power generators and LNG exporters. But there’s a catch: A significant step-up in Appalachian production can only occur if new pipeline infrastructure is built to transport that incremental gas to where it’s needed. In today’s RBN blog, the third in a series about Northeast gas market dynamics, we begin an analysis of the new pipelines and pipeline expansions being planned to move more gas within — and out of — the U.S.’s largest gas production region.As we said in Part 1, while the dramatic changes happening in Texas and Louisiana have garnered most of the gas market’s attention the past year or two, the Northeast has been quietly evolving in ways that will not only shift flow patterns within the region but also affect flows to the Gulf Coast. New pipeline development is, well, no longer a pipe dream, and, as we detailed in Part 2, gas demand within the Northeast is getting a big boost from the power-generation sector as coal retirements continue and new data centers expect to rely heavily on gas-fired power.Today, we get down to specifics regarding the new pipeline capacity that is being planned to (1) deliver incremental volumes of gas to customers in the Northeast and (2) move increasing amounts of gas to customers outside the region. We’ll start with a look at the pipeline projects aimed at markets in New England, New York and New Jersey, then shift to projects that will transport more gas within the Marcellus/Utica itself, down the Eastern Seaboard and, finally, to the Midwest. We should note up front that there’s some overlap — for example, at least a couple of projects involve moving gas west into Ohio and then down into the Southeast.For years, it has been a largely unfulfilled dream of Marcellus/Utica producers and midstream companies to send more gas into New England. Time and again, proposals to significantly expand pipeline infrastructure into and within the six-state region hit a wall of resistance higher than the Green Monster at Fenway. But elected officials and regulators there have become more open to the idea of brownfield expansions to the existing pipeline grid, if only to reduce the need for diesel-fired power during peak winter demand periods and help replace the output of offshore wind projects being delayed or canceled due to opposition from the Trump administration.In September 2025, Enbridge, owner of the 3.1-Bcf/d Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT) pipeline system from New Jersey to eastern New England (purple lines in Figure 1 above), sanctioned the development of the AGT Reliable Affordable Resilient Enhancement project — AGT Enhancement for short. The project, scheduled for completion in late 2028, is designed to ease constraints along the 1,130-mile system and increase its capacity during peak-demand periods by 75 MMcf/d. More specifically, Enbridge would:

• Install about 3 miles of new 36-inch-diameter looping pipeline (i.e., parallel piping; yellow boxes) along the AGT system near Burrillville, RI.
• Replace more than 8 miles of existing 16-inch pipeline in Massachusetts’s Norfolk and Worcester counties and Rhode Island’s Providence County with 36-inch pipe (green boxes).
• Add more than 2 miles of 12-inch looping pipeline in Newport County, RI (dark-blue boxes).
• Make software improvements to AGT’s existing compressor station in Cromwell, CT (orange boxes).

In February, Enbridge asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to use its pre-filing process to expedite the project’s review and the commission approved that request. The company’s formal filing for a FERC Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) to build the project is in the works. Also, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) has approved the 10-year precedent agreements between AGT and two New England utilities (NSTAR Gas and Eversource Gas of Massachusetts) that underpin the project.It turns out that the AGT Enhancement project is only the opening act for a much larger AGT project that Enbridge is planning. In mid-May, the midstream giant unveiled plans for Project Beacon, which — depending on the results of a simultaneously issued open season — could add another 300 MMcf/d of capacity to the system (and possibly even more) by late 2030 through a series of physical and operational improvements. (Click here for a primer on open seasons.) The company didn’t say, but these may well include replacing existing pipe with larger-diameter pipe, installing looping along parts of the system, and adding compression.Given its potential size and scope, Project Beacon will be a test of how open New England officials are to expanding pipeline capacity in the energy-challenged region. Our bet is that AGT’s likely approach of limiting system improvements to its existing rights of way — combined with New England’s clear need for more inbound capacity — will help the project win needed approvals, though the effort is unlikely to be friction-free. Next we turn to New York, where Williams Cos. has already revived — and recently started building — one major pipeline project it had canceled several years ago and may soon revive another. As we said last October in All We Are Saying ... Is Give (NESE) a Chance, a changing political/regulatory climate in Washington, DC, led Williams to resurrect the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project one year after it had scrapped plans for it after regulatory setbacks in New York and New Jersey. The $1-billion-plus project, which on this go-round secured federal and state approvals without much trouble, is now under construction and scheduled to be completed in Q4 2027. NESE is the latest in a series of enhancements that Williams has been making to its 10,000-mile-plus Transco system (green lines in Figure 2 above), which runs between South Texas and New York City. (We’ll get to others later in this series.) The project involves installing 10 miles of 42-inch pipeline looping along Transco in Lancaster County, PA (dashed aqua line labeled #1); a 3.4-mile, 26-inch onshore loop of the Lower New York Bay Lateral (LNYBL) in Middlesex County, NJ (dashed aqua line labeled #2); and a 23-mile, 26-inch offshore loop of LNYBL (dashed aqua line labeled #3). That last segment will run to the offshore Rockaway Transfer Point, an existing interconnection between the LNYBL (long green line under New York Harbor) and the Rockaway Delivery Lateral (short green line from eastern end of #3 to long, narrow Rockaway Peninsula). The Rockaway lateral connects to National Grid’s gas distribution system in Brooklyn. Also planned are additional compression at a station in Chester County, PA, and a new 32,000-horsepower compressor station in Somerset County, NJ (blue-and-white pentagon labeled #4). The overall project will provide 400 MMcf/d of firm transportation capacity to gas utility National Grid’s service territory in three of New York City’s five boroughs (Staten Island, Brooklyn and Queens) and Long Island’s Nassau and Suffolk counties. As we just said, Williams is also trying to breathe new life into another New York project: the Constitution Pipeline. The 125-mile, 650-MMcf/d project was approved by FERC in 2014 but denied a New York water-quality permit in 2016 and effectively canceled in 2020. The greenfield pipeline (dashed yellow line in Figure 3 above) would run from the dry-gas Marcellus production area in northeastern Pennsylvania to Schoharie County, NY — just west of Albany — crossing the Millennium Pipeline (dark-red line) along the way and ultimately tying into the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP; orange lines) and Iroquois Pipeline (magenta line), which bring gas east and south to Massachusetts, Connecticut and Long Island.The Constitution project’s prospective revival faces two significant challenges, however, and its fate is uncertain. One is that the state of New York is opposing Williams’s December 2025 request that FERC reissue the project’s CPCN. The other is that, unlike the NESE project, whose development was based on the needs of one gas utility in a single state, the Constitution project would require long-term commitments from multiple gas buyers in two or more states.In an upcoming blog, we’ll discuss pipeline projects now underway that will enhance flows across Pennsylvania, down the Eastern Seaboard, and into the Midwest.

Advocates ramp up pressure on Lamont to reject pipelines, citing economic data -- Hoping to put pressure on Gov. Ned Lamont’s administration to reconsider the state’s longtime reliance on natural gas, environmental advocates are zeroing in on one aspect that’s particularly salient in an election year: affordability. A report released this week by two economists with the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut — conducted on behalf of the Connecticut League of Conservation Voters — argues that past efforts to increase the use of natural gas in the state resulted in costly infrastructure upgrades that were passed on to customers, without any decrease in the price of fuel.In addition, the report blames the state’s existing gas-fired power plants for worsening local air quality while exporting large amounts of electricity to other New England states. A copy of the report was shared with the Connecticut Mirror last week, ahead of its publication on Tuesday. The report was also shared with the governor and lawmakers.The report largely focuses on the impact from policies put in place under Lamont’s predecessor, Gov. Dannel Malloy, to expand access to natural gas pipelines to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. “Frankly, we didn’t get a good deal,” said Fred Carstensen, the director of CCEA and one of the report’s authors. “The expansion of natural gas led to the kind of development in which we bear the cost, but we got no benefit, essentially. So that raises the question of why, in the last year or two years, has there been a discussion of expanding natural gas further in Connecticut? It didn’t help us the first time around.” The report comes at a time when several New England governors, including Lamont, have embraced the possibility of expanding gas pipelines in order to address the region’s soaring energy prices. Much of their interest has to do with gas that is burned to fuel power plants, supplying more than half the region’s power. Connecticut, like the rest of New England, gets all of its gas shipped in from other states through pipelines or, to a lesser extent, by ship. The region’s existing pipeline network operates at or near capacity, so expansion would be necessary to meet growing demand and help lower prices, supporters say. In a statement on Tuesday, Lamont called the report a “timely and important study,” but did not renounce his past support for an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy that includes natural gas.“Lasting affordability cannot be achieved through volatile fossil fuels alone, and the green energy technologies outlined in this report will drive down electricity costs while positioning Connecticut as a leader in the clean energy economy,” Lamont said.He continued, “My administration remains committed to growing Connecticut’s green economy, especially by strengthening offshore wind, to build a cleaner, more resilient grid, reduce our dependence on gas, and deliver long-term rate relief for Connecticut families and businesses. The only sustainable path to lower rates and greater energy independence is a diverse, locally sourced energy portfolio.” Rising demand for natural gas has exacerbated Connecticut’s energy issues and led to higher prices, the CCEA report argues. Power plants were responsible for much of that increased demand. The amount of natural gas burned to create electricity climbed by more than half. And three new gas-fired power plants have been built or expanded in Connecticut over the last decade, the report noted.The report argues that because Connecticut is a net exporter of electricity, it has to bear more of the environmental and health-related costs associated with pollution from gas-fired plants, while much of the electricity produced is sent to power homes in states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In addition, it argues that a reliance on natural gas makes Connecticut vulnerable to occasional price spikes caused by global events such as the wars in Ukraine and Iran.The report acknowledges some benefits from the shift toward natural gas in the last decade, most notably the closure of the state’s last coal-fired power plant, Bridgeport Harbor Station, in 2021. But other benefits that were once touted as part of the push for more natural gas — such as ending the reliance on fuel oil to heat homes and businesses — have not come to fruition. The share of Connecticut homes that rely on oil as their primary source of heat has fallen by around 18% in the last decade, according to U.S. Census data. But the data indicates that much of the shift over that time period has been toward electric heating, while the number of homes relying on gas has increased only slightly.

Why Are Natural Gas Traders Expecting More New England Price Risk?- Key Northeast natural gas hubs are diverging from a weaker Henry Hub forward curve, a sign traders remain wary of regional supply risks even after new capacity additions. Chart showing Algonquin Citygate forward natural gas basis curves through mid-2028, with winter premiums peaking above $15/MMBtu.     At a Glance:
Data centers add gas demand
Higher oil prices raise risks
Northeast hubs diverge from benchmark

4th Circuit Judges Explain Why They Won’t Block MVP Southgate - Marcellus Drilling News - -The same three judges from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit who blocked the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) for *years* suddenly changed course in late April, ruling on an extension of MVP into North Carolina called Southgate. Big Green, represented by the Sierra Club and Appalachian Voices, sued to block a permit issued by North Carolina regulators for the Southgate project. While the three judges grumbled and complained about Southgate during oral arguments (see 4th Circus Clown Judges Badmouth MVP Southgate in Oral Arguments), a day later, they surprised everyone by lifting a previous “stay” imposed on building the project (see Surprise! 4th Circus Clown Judges Allow MVP Southgate Construction). The three have just issued a lengthy explanation for their April decision to lift the stay.

FERC Overhauls Natural Gas Pipeline Permitting as Demand Strains Capacity - Federal regulators have proposed the first major revision to a blanket certificate program for natural gas pipelines in two decades, clearing the way for interstate operators to build larger projects without case-by-case approval as LNG and data center demand rises.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Thursday proposed expanding the scope and scale of projects pipelines can build under its blanket certificate program, which avoids a full review under Section 7 of the Natural Gas Act (Docket No. RM25-12-001).The blanket program covers certain routine projects including compressor upgrades, pipeline looping and new metering. The program was last updated in 2006. ERC has proposed raising the automatic authorization ceiling to $30 million from $14.5 million. The ceiling for prior-notice projects, which require a 60-day protest window, would climb to $86 million from $41.1 million. The proposal also adds new categories of work including facility abandonments, in-fenceline expansions and receipt points.The changes “should dramatically accelerate construction by cutting through red tape,” FERC said.“We’re not cutting any corners here, and we never have,” FERC Chairman Laura Swett said in a briefing. “Projects identified as high risk will continue to undergo comprehensive review. Our blanket program has achieved strong results, but we must continually update it to reflect changes in the energy sector.”The proposal lands as pipeline capacity struggles to keep pace with demand growth. Surging LNG feedgas demand and data center load have left takeaway capacity tight across major basins, contributing to sharp price swings, from negative prices at the Permian Basin’s Waha hub to triple-digit spikes in the Southeast and Northeast during winter cold.FERC cited the North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s latest long-term assessment, which found 13 of 23 assessment areas plan to add natural gas-fired generation over the next decade. The areas have 53 GW of new winter capacity in planning queues.The program’s cost caps, meanwhile, have lagged construction inflation. FERC cited an analysis by the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, showing the median cost to build a pipeline rose about 257% per inch-mile between 2006 and 2024, while compression costs climbed roughly 173% per horsepower. The program’s limits rose only about 50% over the same span.Not all of the 17 comments submitted in response to FERC’s June 2025 notice of inquiry backed looser limits. The American Public Gas Association urged regulators to keep full Section 7 review for larger projects, while the Natural Gas Supply Association sought guardrails ensuring blanket projects carry no more than a minor rate impact. The Environmental Defense Fund opposed raising the caps outright, citing its review of pipeline filings that put the average blanket project cost at about $3.3 million in 2024, far below current limits.FERC said the revisions preserve the program’s founding principle: blanket authority covers only projects “modest in scale and routine in nature” that would not unjustifiably raise customers’ rates.The blanket certificate program does not cover LNG export terminals, which FERC authorizes separately under Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act. The agency is pursuing a parallel streamlining effort for that sector.In a separate order, FERC pushed the deadline for projects built under a temporary waiver of the cost limits to May 31, 2028. The extension provides regulatory certainty while the rulemaking is finalized, FERC said.The moves track a broader Trump administration push to compress federal permitting timelines for energy infrastructure.

Trump’s Jones Act Waiver has Resulted in 0 Domestic LNG Shipments -- Marcellus Drilling News - - On March 18, President Trump issued a 60-day waiver pausing the enforcement of the Jones Act (see President Trump Issues 60-Day Waiver of Jones Act, Includes LNG). For *years* we have railed against the 106-year-old Jones Act and its requirement that any goods (like LNG) transported from one U.S. port to another be carried on a ship manufactured in the U.S., owned by a U.S. company, and crewed by a U.S. crew. The effect of this law in the modern age is to ban LNG (and other shipments, like gasoline, propane, coal, and other products manufactured in the U.S.) from being shipped cheaply from port to port. Trump recently extended the waiver another 90 days, until mid-August.

Venture Global Advancing CP2 LNG Construction, Expansion Project - Venture Global has filed another application at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to significantly expand its LNG output. At a Glance:

• Company wants to add 11.7 Mt/y
• Filed for Plaquemines expansion too
• CP3 under consideration

What’s Left – Delfin Floating LNG Joins the Growing List of Gulf Coast Projects Reaching FID | RBN Energy  --Three new U.S. LNG projects have reached a positive final investment decision (FID) this year: Venture Global’s CP2 Phase 2, Caturus’s Commonwealth LNG and now, most recently, Delfin Midstream’s Delfin LNG, which will be the U.S.’s first floating LNG (FLNG) project. These three FIDs are the tail end of the incredible wave of development that began in 2025, when six projects got the green light. Together, the 2025 and 2026 FIDs will add nearly 17 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity to the U.S. Gulf Coast, pushing the total to around 33 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at this tsunami of development, focusing on Delfin LNG.In Part 1, we looked at the latest round of sanctioned U.S. LNG project development, which began in April 2025 with a surprising FID on Woodside’s Louisiana LNG. At the time, the project had almost no commercial sales backing it, a divergence from how U.S. projects are typically developed. Following that, there were a number of more traditional FIDs from Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Sempra and NextDecade. In May of this year, Caturus took FID on Commonwealth LNG, which will be the U.S.’s 14th LNG export terminal. The project will have six liquefaction trains for a total capacity of 9.5 million tons per annum (MMtpa; 1.3 Bcf/d), about 85% of which is secured by long-term offtake agreements.Today, we turn our attention to Delfin LNG, which was given its official green light on June 3. Delfin LNG will be located about 40 nautical miles off the coast of Cameron Parish, LA, in the U.S. Gulf. Delfin LNG will include up to three independent FLNG vessels, each of which would be 4.4 MMtpa (0.6 Bcf/d). Only the first vessel, FLNG 1, has taken FID; development of the other two vessels is unlikely to move forward in the near term. The project is backed by long-term offtake agreements with Vitol, Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake and Southwestern), Centrica and Gunvor Group (see Figure 1 below). The largest offtaker is Vitol, which is also an equity investor in the project. The project previously had an offtake agreement with Hartree Partners, but that was canceled in April, prior to the FID. In total, nearly 90% of FLNG 1’s capacity is secured in binding offtake agreements. In addition to Vitol, Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP, part of BlackRock), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Diameter Capital Partners have also invested in the project. The Delfin project (see rendering in Figure 3 below) was originally proposed in 2013 but has faced a number of regulatory challenges over the years. It filed with federal regulators in 2015, but instead of facing the well-known Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) review process, it is governed by the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) because of its offshore location. It is the first (and so far only) LNG project to go through the lengthy MARAD review process. It received an initial Record of Decision in 2017 but did not get its final deepwater port license until March 2025. More recently, the project also faced a delay after a February 3 explosion during a routine cleaning and inspection of the UTOS pipeline near Holly Beach and Johnson Bayou in Louisiana. According to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s (PHSMA) preliminary findings, the incident was caused by a cleaning pig impacting a closed valve. PHSMA issued a Corrective Action Order requiring an independent third-party investigation of the incident, a submittal of plans for remedial work across the full pipeline segment, and hydrostatic testing before any restart. Vitol said the project’s FID would have come earlier if not for the incident. Delfin will have to work on the repairs while the project is under construction, but first LNG is not planned until 2030.Delfin has touted the benefits of an offshore terminal, including its minimal environmental impact and compact design compared to its onshore counterparts. It will additionally circumvent potentially congested onshore ports, a growing concern as LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast increases. However, this technology is untested in the U.S. and FLNG projects elsewhere have faced operational issues or more frequent outages compared to the majority of U.S. onshore terminals. Shell’s Prelude FLNG off the coast of Western Australia, the world’s first FLNG terminal, has had frequent outages since its startup in 2019. New Fortress Energy’s (NFE) Fast LNG terminal in Altamira, Mexico, faced a number of issues during its startup. Altamira has also had much larger feedgas losses than typical for LNG terminals, leading to expensive engineering fixes that have not resulted in the hoped-for performance improvements. NFE recently filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy, asking U.S. courts to support a restructuring plan already underway through the U.K.’s High Court rather than filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S. Neither of these projects are direct one-to-one comparisons to Delfin, but they illustrate the problems faced elsewhere.Delfin will be the first offshore terminal in the U.S., adding 4.4 MMtpa (0.6 Bcf/d) of export capacity and taking the U.S. to 33 Bcf/d by the early 2030s. The topline number could still climb modestly higher this year, as we mentioned in Part 1, as Texas LNG is fully permitted and commercialized and could move forward. Beyond this year, there is still appetite for more U.S. LNG, and developers are pushing hard. Venture Global and Cheniere have both filed with FERC to permit additional expansion projects. Cheniere’s next project, Sabine Pass Train 7, is fully commercialized and early construction has already begun, even though it does not yet have its final FERC authorization. The project is likely to move forward in 2027, or when it receives FERC approval. Cheniere also has further expansions at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi in the FERC process, but those would be for consideration further down the road. Likewise, Venture Global has expansions at Plaquemines and the under-construction CP2 early in the FERC process.Beyond the U.S., export capacity is ramping up in other parts of North America. LNG Canada began service last summer and is expected to decide on Phase 2 of the project later this year. Phase 2 would double the terminal’s capacity from 14 MMtpa (1.85 Bcf/d) to 28 MMtpa (3.7 Bcf/d). Early construction began in June under a Limited Notice to Proceed (LNTP), indicating that a positive decision is very likely. If that project moves forward, Canada will have an export capacity of 33.4 MMtpa (4.4 Bcf/d) between LNG Canada and two other terminals currently under construction, Woodfibre and Cedar LNG. In Mexico, in addition to the operational Altamira LNG, Sempra’s ECA LNG in Baja California is currently commissioning and began producing LNG earlier this month. The project has not yet exported its first cargo. Combined, Mexico will soon have an export capacity of 4.65 MMtpa (0.62 Bcf/d). There are a handful of projects under development in Mexico, including a second FLNG vessel at Altamira, which was already under construction but has faced delays and may be canceled because of NFE’s restructuring. All terminals proposed or operating in Mexico use U.S. natural gas (primarily from the Permian) as the feedgas source. Despite the abundance of gas in the basin, pipeline connectivity within Mexico has hamstrung the development of larger LNG export terminals.Combined, North America will be able to export at least 268 MMtpa (35.5 Bcf/d) by early next decade. While growth in that topline number may be slowing, for now, it is extremely unlikely we’ve seen the last project move forward. Canadian projects rely on Canadian production, so the impact on U.S. gas markets will be limited, but capacity additions along the Gulf Coast and in Mexico create additional demand for the U.S, putting upward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices.

Caliche Advances Natural Gas Storage Buildout as LNG Demand Climbs - Caliche Development Partners III has sanctioned 17 Bcf of new salt cavern capacity at its Golden Triangle Storage complex in Beaumont, TX, positioning it to serve surging feedgas demand from LNG terminals at its doorstep. At a Glance:

• Golden Triangle adds 17 Bcf
• LNG anchors storage demand
• Full buildout tops 60 Bcf

Sempra Announces In-Service of Port Arthur LNG Pipeline Connector -- Marcellus Drilling News - Sempra Infrastructure announced that its Port Arthur Pipeline Louisiana Connector has entered service, marking progress on U.S. energy infrastructure aimed at supplying global natural gas markets. CEO Justin Bird said the project was completed ahead of schedule and under budget. The pipeline will transport up to 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. natural gas, including Marcellus/Utica gas, to Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, which is now under construction with a nameplate capacity of about 13 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The project links with the Gillis Hub Pipeline and the LA Storage facility under construction. It includes 72 miles of 42-inch pipeline and a compressor station.

Port Arthur LNG Feedgas Pipeline Enters Service Ahead of Schedule - Sempra Infrastructure said Tuesday that the feedgas system for its Port Arthur LNG project has been placed into service ahead of the export plant’s first phase startup expected next year. At a Glance:

• 2 Bcf/d system boosts regional takeaway
• First two trains due online by 2028
• Second phase moving ahead

Golden Pass LNG Ramp Stumbles, Clouding Natural Gas Demand Growth Outlook - Golden Pass LNG’s first train has yet to find its footing nearly two months after shipping an inaugural cargo, with feedgas flows averaging a fraction of rated capacity as unplanned maintenance hampers the ramp-up. NGI chart comparing Henry Hub natural gas prices with Golden Pass LNG feed gas deliveries, showing rising flows as the export facility ramps up.  At a Glance:
Train 1 averages just 159 MMcf/d
Maintenance limits pipeline deliveries
Train 2 may take feedgas in November

Rising LNG Project Costs Give US Incumbents Leg Up to Advance Major Expansions - The Iran war is driving momentum for US LNG exports, but it’s pushing up project costs in a way that’s jeopardizing upstarts trying to develop new plants and positioning incumbents flush with cash to lead the next wave of supplies with brownfield expansions. At a Glance:

• Greenfields at a disadvantage
• Conflict driving project momentum
• Existing sites offer more room

Haynesville Production Rising After Lackluster Month in May -  Haynesville production is beginning to climb again as spring maintenance winds down, with LNG demand expected to rebound as the Freeport facility restarts and Golden Pass commissioning advances.Haynesville production averaged 16.7 Bcf/d for the week ending June 8, up 0.15 bcf/d from the previous week (see dark green line below), driven by higher production in Louisiana. Production in Texas was relatively unchanged, with offsetting changes on individual pipelines. While spring maintenance is not fully complete, activity is winding down and should allow flows to strengthen as summer approaches. Flows on Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America (NGPL) rebounded last week following maintenance‑related restrictions over the past few weeks, according to our NATGAS Haynesville Report. The pipeline still has some work ongoing, but that is scheduled to end later this week. Flows on Louisiana Energy Gateway (LEG) and DTE’s Louisiana Energy Access Project (LEAP) were also up last week, while flows on Gulf Run Pipeline and Tiger Pipeline were down. Gulf Run also had maintenance ongoing last week that has since ended. The pipeline's final planned spring maintenance period is from June 15 to 20, affecting the Vernon compressor station in Jackson Parish. Spring pipeline maintenance is winding down and LNG feedgas demand is expected to rise, which should drive Haynesville production higher this month.

Natural Gas News: Storage Surplus Limits Breakout as Cooler Forecasts Weigh - July Nymex natural gas fell 8.2 cents on Monday. Down 2.54%. Hit a one-week low. Weather killed last week’s rally. Cooler revisions in the 8-to-13-day forecast window gave sellers everything they needed. Production is still running near records. Storage is comfortable. The only thing holding this market up was heat. The forecast pulled it back and the floor moved with it. At 07:00 GMT Tuesday, July Nymex natural gas was trading at $3.147. Unchanged in the pre-market.  July natural gas futures are unchanged early in the session on Tuesday. Yesterday’s price action suggests traders are still showing respect for the 50-day moving average at $3.122.The higher-top, higher-bottom chart pattern suggests there is still an upside bias, but the weakness in the minor trend is pressuring momentum. This type of set-up usually leads to a sideways trade. It will be sideways to higher if heat returns to the forecast, but sideways to lower if temperatures remain comfortable and supply rises.  As for today, trader reaction to the 50-day moving average at $3.122 sets the tone.  The swing chart has also created a support zone at $3.145 to $3.085. If the latter fails then look for support at $2.978, $2.951, and $2.893 to come into play. On the upside, pivot prices at $3.187 and $3.248 are potential headwinds but also trigger points for accelerations to the upside. Vaisala revised the outlook Monday. Cooler temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country for June 13-17. The June 18-22 window lost heat too. Those are the exact weeks this market was leaning on for strong cooling demand. The bid disappeared the moment that revision hit. This week is still hot. NatGasWeather has a ridge building across the southern, central, and eastern United States. Highs in the 80s and 90s for most of the country. The Southwest pushes into the 100s. Chicago and the Ohio Valley could touch the 90s by mid-week. That is real air conditioning load. The Edison Electric Institute backs it up. U.S. Lower-48 electricity output for the week ended May 30 climbed 6.4% from a year earlier to 81,619 GWh. Power demand is not the problem. The problem is that none of this week’s heat is a surprise. Traders already own it. They sold Monday because the weeks they did not own yet got cooler. The June 13-22 revision is the trade. Not this week’s thermometer. The 95 bcf build for the week ended May 29 came in below what anybody expected. The Street had 99. The five-year average was 101. That is a bullish print on paper. The problem is what sits underneath it.U.S. inventories are still 5.7% above the five-year seasonal average. Down just 0.8% year-over-year. Nobody is worried about running short domestically. The cushion is real. Europe does not have that luxury. European gas storage stood at 42% full as of June 6. Should be closer to 57% by now based on seasonal norms. Fifteen percentage points below where they need to be heading into summer restocking. That gap is why U.S. LNG cargoes keep moving at strong rates. Europe is buying everything it can get. Domestic storage tells one story. The European deficit tells the opposite one. Both are trading at the same time.LNG feedgas demand is doing the work that weather is not. Estimated net flows to U.S. export terminals hit 17.6 bcf per day Monday. Up 4.0% from the prior week. Every barrel of gas that goes onto an LNG tanker is a barrel that does not sit in domestic storage. At 112 bcf per day of production that matters.The global shortage is real. The Strait of Hormuz closure has choked off Middle Eastern natural gas exports. Europe and Asia are scrambling for replacement cargoes. Qatar reported extensive damage at Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 19. The world’s largest natural gas export plant. Iran’s attacks took out 17% of the facility’s LNG export capacity. Repairs could take three to five years. Ras Laffan handles roughly 20% of global LNG supply. That outage is not a headline anymore. It is a structural hole in the global market. U.S. exporters are filling it. That floor underneath July Nymex natural gas is not going away even on cooler domestic forecasts.Production keeps growing into a market that needs heat to absorb it. BNEF had Lower-48 dry gas output at 112.1 bcf per day Monday. Up 3.7% year-over-year. Near record territory. The Energy Information Administration made it worse. Raised the 2026 production forecast to 110.61 bcf per day from the April estimate of 109.60. The supply side is not cooperating with the bulls. Baker Hughes reported one rig came off the count last week. Total active natural gas rigs dropped to 124 for the week ending June 5. Down from the 2.5-year high of 134 in late February. Still sitting well above the 94-rig low from September 2024. One rig does not change the supply picture. Output this heavy means every rally that is not driven by sustained heat runs out of room fast. Sellers know that. It is why follow-through on hot weather spikes has been short-lived all year.

US natural gas futures rise as demand outlook strengthens (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather and more demand over the next two weeks ‌than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.5 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.185 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest level since May 27 for a second day in a row. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to 108.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. The average so far for June ⁠is lower than the figure on Monday. Analysts said mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the surplus of gas in inventory to around 5.6% above normal during the week ended June 5, down from about 5.7% above normal in the previous week. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 24, which should boost the amount of gas that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 103.2 bcfd this week to 104.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from 17.1 bcfd in May to 16.5 bcfd so far in June due to ‌ongoing ⁠spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. Those flows compare with a monthly LNG feedgas record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

Low Permian NatGas Price Causes Some Oil Drillers to Shut In Wells - Marcellus Drilling News - Here's a story that may, at first glance, seem to have nothing to do with the Marcellus/Utica. Au contraire! The story of what's happening with Permian drillers has a great deal to do with the M-U region. Although MDN frequently refers to the Haynesville Shale as the #1 competitor to the M-U because both plays target natural gas as the primary hydrocarbon, would it surprise you to learn that the Permian basin is the #2 producer of natural gas behind the M-U? And it's catching up. Permian Basin drillers are experiencing starkly contrasting fortunes, reaping historic profits from war-driven oil price rallies while facing negative regional natural gas prices due to severe pipeline bottlenecks. To curb financial losses from associated gas, major producers like Permian Resources and Devon Energy are shutting in wells, while others resort to flaring to maintain more profitable crude production.

Waha Gas Reaches Least Negative Price Since February  -Outright Waha cash prices averaged negative $1.16/MMBtu during the week ended June 8 according to data from Bloomberg. This is $0.64/MMBtu higher than the average price during the week ended June 1. Although they are still below zero, this is the highest prices in the basin have been since February as summer demand picks up. Prices are expected to recover further once new takeaway capacity comes online later this year. The price increase came as overall outflows from the Permian Basin were up week-on-week, driven by higher outflows to the West. Outflows to the West averaged 2.6 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d week-on-week with higher flows on both El Paso and Transwestern. As seen in the chart above, Westbound flows are higher than they were at this time during the last two years. Eastbound flows from the Permian were stable at 12.9 Bcf/d. A bump to Eastbound flows is anticipated as an expansion on Gulf Coast Express is expected to be the first of the major projects due online this year. There is currently no indication that the project is online, but it could be coming any day. The project will expand the capacity of Gulf Coast Express, which began service in 2019, by 0.57 Bcf/d.

Permian Basin Natural Gas Oversupply Narrative Starts to Crack --Permian Basin forward natural gas prices surged over the past month as traders appeared to reassess the extent of future basin oversupply amid growing demand, improving cash prices and upcoming pipeline expansions that offered a more constructive outlook for the region. NGI Forward Look chart shows Waha natural gas forward prices rising from negative summer levels to winter 2026-27 highs near $3.50/MMBtu. At a Glance:NGI’s Forward Look data show Waha fixed forwards posting some of the strongest gains in the country, with the largest increases concentrated in the summer and shoulder-season portions of the curve.Despite the recent rally, Waha remains one of the most discounted hubs in North America. Friday fixed forward data for Thursday trade showed the balance-of-summer 2026 strip averaging negative $1.007/MMBtu, compared to Henry Hub at $3.243. However, Waha winter 2026/27 pricing averaged $2.636, reflecting expectations for stronger seasonal demand and improving takeaway capacity.The stark difference between the summer and winter strips highlights how strongly the market continues to differentiate between near-term infrastructure constraints and longer term expectations. While Waha's balance-of-summer strip remains deeply negative, winter pricing reflects growing confidence that additional takeaway capacity and demand growth will improve basin fundamentals.Although July New York Mercantile Exchange futures settled Friday up 0.5 cents at $3.290, following Thursday’s 19.0 cent gain, the broader upward shift in the Waha forward curve suggested traders may be increasingly focused on whether growing demand and additional takeaway capacity can absorb rising Permian production.“With most new drilling still focused on oil, we aren’t expecting a large increase in gas production, so stronger summer demand could result in very low storage injections,” Tradition Energy analyst Gary Cunningham told NGI.Although the US Energy Information Administration expects Permian Basin natural gas production to increase to about 30.2 Bcf/d by December from roughly 29.2 Bcf/d in July, traders increasingly appear focused on whether growing demand and additional takeaway capacity can absorb that output.Baker Hughes and Enverus rig data for the week ended May 22 offered a mixed signal. US oil-directed rigs increased by 10 week/week to 425, while natural gas-directed rigs fell by three to 125. Permian activity rose by four rigs to 250 but remained below year-earlier levels of 279, suggesting production growth continues, but not at the pace seen during previous expansion cycles.Recent gains have not been limited to the forward market. Waha cash prices have also recovered from some of the steep discounts recorded earlier this year, when maintenance events and infrastructure constraints periodically pushed the hub sharply below Henry Hub. NGI’s Daily Datafeed showed Waha averaging negative $1.100 Thursday, with trades ranging from negative $1.500 to negative 80.0 cents/MMBtu. While still below zero, the hub has improved markedly from spring lows that approached negative $5 during periods of maintenance-related congestion.The improvement comes as spring pipeline maintenance begins to wind down and as demand continues to expand from LNG exports, Mexico exports and power generation.For years, traders viewed the Permian as chronically oversupplied because production growth routinely outpaced available takeaway capacity. That dynamic frequently drove Waha cash prices into deeply negative territory and weighed heavily on forward pricing.However, the combination of stronger demand growth, recovering cash prices and additional pipeline capacity under development appears to be prompting the market to reassess just how oversupplied the basin may be over the next several years.Projects including Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express expansion, Blackcomb Pipeline and Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline are expected to add about 6 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity beginning in late 2026 and beyond. The shift comes as LNG demand continues running near record highs. Wood Mackenzie recently estimated US LNG feedgas demand near 18–19 Bcf/d, with export facilities operating near capacity and additional demand growth expected from Golden Pass LNG and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul LNG project. Stronger global gas prices, expanding LNG exports and rising power-sector demand continue to support the long-term outlook for Permian consumption. As a result, the recent rally in Waha forwards may reflect a broader market view that future demand growth could absorb more of the basin’s production than previously expected.The forward curve suggests traders remain cautious about near-term Permian oversupply but increasingly expect growing LNG demand and additional pipeline capacity to improve basin fundamentals over time. While summer pricing remains deeply discounted, the significantly stronger winter strip indicates confidence that the worst of the infrastructure bottlenecks may eventually ease.

Crude Inventories Continue Decline as Refiners Ramp Up for Summer Demand | RBN Energy -Based on data from the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended June 5, strong refinery demand contributed to the need for a seventh consecutive commercial crude inventory draw. Stocks fell over 7 MMbbl to their lowest level since mid-February, and Cushing inventories dropped to their lowest level since December. Although refinery input increased by a modest 81 Mb/d to just under 17 MMb/d (purple circle in graph below), refinery utilization rose to 95.3%, the highest level since January, as refiners continued running hard ahead of peak summer demand. While outages at refineries in some PADDs weighed on runs, the return of all units at PBF's Martinez refinery and stronger operating rates elsewhere more than offset those losses.  As discussed in RBN's Crude Oil Billboard, product balances remain a key incentive for sustained refinery activity. While gasoline inventories have begun to rebuild following an extended drawdown, distillate inventories remain exceptionally tight and are sitting at their lowest seasonal levels in decades. That tightness continues to support middle-distillate margins and encourages refiners to maintain elevated run rates to capitalize on overall healthy refining economics.

The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point -- Cushing, Oklahoma, dubs itself the pipeline crossroads of the world. The tagline is emblazoned on a giant roadside sign fashioned out of pipes on the corner of Main Street and South Stiles Road. It has a valve and everything. But it’s not just a slogan. Cushing is the hub of America’s energy market. It literally provides the oil plumbing for the United States. It’s where America’s benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil is priced and warehoused. From there, it’s piped to refineries around the country. In normal times, Cushing stores around 40 million barrels of oil with capacity of up to 75 million. These are not normal times. Cushing’s current inventory is 21.6 million barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s dangerously close to operational stress levels, the tipping point at which Cushing struggles to supply all of its customers with the oil they demand. When Cushing’s reserves get below 20 million, they effectively hit empty, scraping the bottom of the barrel of what is largely unusable sludge. And when Cushing runs empty, strange things happen to the oil market. Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon – very soon – we’re probably just weeks away from finding out what that looks like. Cushing is running out of oil because America has become the supplier of last resort for regions of the world that typically get their oil and fuel from the Middle East. Demand for US oil surged to a record high during the Iran war, and crude has flowed out of Cushing faster than America’s oil drillers can refill it. But it’s not just a Cushing problem. US diesel stocks recently hit their lowest level since 2003. Gas inventories have been falling, too – about 5% below where they were a year ago. Other US commercial crude storage facilities outside of Cushing are also getting drained fast – by 7.2 million barrels last week alone. It certainly doesn’t feel like the US oil market is in any real trouble. Despite the largest crude supply shock the world has ever seen, US oil and gas prices still haven’t hit record highs during the three-plus months of war with Iran. And they’ve been sliding – sometimes sharply – in recent weeks. That’s largely because the world was historically oversupplied with oil going into the crisis. Those stockpiles have acted as a global shock absorber. But commercial oil inventories are rapidly dwindling. Oil stockpiles in the world’s wealthiest nations are falling by 6.3 million barrels per day and are sitting at just 2.6 billion barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s just 100 million barrels above operational stress levels, said David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. The oil market can’t run down to the last drop, like your car can. Below a certain threshold, pipelines can’t maintain pressure and refineries can’t deliver all the various fuel grades their customers demand. “Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities strategy at JPMorgan. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.” At this rate, the world’s oil market could enter the danger zone within a month. That means the market could easily go into panic mode because of a minor problem. Prices could become extraordinarily volatile day to day, and a pipeline leak, a refinery fire or a weather even could send oil and gas significantly higher. An export ban could help keep Cushing from running dry and threatening to choke up the whole system. But that has little political traction and is fraught with potentially unpleasant side-effects, including higher prices in the long-term.The other solution is for natural market dynamics to take over. And those could get ugly in a hurry Every time Cushing has neared operational minimums, fuel prices have hit historic highs: 2008, 2022, 2023 … and, in perhaps a matter of weeks, we’ll hit that critical level again.“We’re raising alarm bells right now,” American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers told CNN’s Phil Mattingly on The Lead this week. “We’re getting to levels where we are starting to be concerned.”“Unheard of” inventory levels are reaching a breaking point, said Neil Chapman, senior vice president of ExxonMobil, at a conference hosted by Bernstein in New York on May 28.“Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up,” he said.Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, at the same conference, agreed that ultra-low inventories will mean higher prices in the coming weeks. Same goes for the heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization, who released a statement on May 29 that noted the record-pace depletion of global oil inventories poses growing risks to fuel security, the market and the broader economy.Oil could easily march above $90 today toward $140 to $160 a barrel in the coming months, and gas could top $5 if the strait doesn’t fully reopen, said Oxley.Eventually, the market could find ways to increase supply, similar to how European airlines cut flights and raised airfares to give the industry time to find a new jet fuel supplier: the United States.But if the situation doesn’t resolve itself by year-end, prices would need to rise much, much further – closing in on $200 a barrel, said Alan Gelder, head of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.That would put gas prices around $9 a gallon – high enough to effectively kill demand for gas and oil for most consumers.

Airline fuel costs jump 78 percent in past year amid war with Iran - As the war in Iran passes the 100-day mark, the cost for America’s airline industry is mounting. On Friday, a report from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) stated that U.S. airlines paid nearly $6.5 billion in fuel costs in April. That was up more than 26 percent from March and up 78 percent from April 2025, the BTS noted. The cost per gallon of jet fuel in April was $4.11, up 94 cents from March and an increase of $1.81 from a year prior. Energy costs have risen around the world since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, which the Iranian military responded to by restricting transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The reopening of the waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, is a key tenet of peace negotiations between the Trump administration and officials in Tehran. But those were set back again this weekend as Iran and Israel traded strikes for the first time in weeks. Trump walks away from Meet The Press interview after tense exchange on "rigged" elections favoring Dems Amid negotiations, transit through the strait has remained limited, with just 10 ships passing through in the last 24 hours, according to hormuzstraitmonitor.com. The site notes that 60 vessels go through the waterway daily under normal conditions. Increased jet fuel costs are making a significant dent in airlines’ margins. A Sunday report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted that the group expects airlines to achieve a combined total net profit of $23 billion this year, $18 billion less than its previous projection. The IATA, which represents more than 370 airlines in the U.S. and around the world, stated that it expects the net profit per passenger to decrease from $9.10 in 2025 to $4.50 this year. Willie Walsh, the director general of the IATA, said in the report that the Iran war and rising fuel costs “have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse.” Walsh added, “Some of the additional cost is being recuperated by adjusting prices and improving efficiency, but it will not be sufficient to maintain profitability at the previous year’s level. Smaller carriers that started the year with weak balance sheets are certainly struggling.” In the U.S., passenger carriers have passed on higher fuel costs to customers in the form of higher baggage fees. Spirit Airlines, meanwhile, ceased operations in May after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy twice in the prior two years.

Wright tries to reassure Hill Republicans on gasoline prices - Energy Secretary Chris Wright privately told House Republicans on Tuesday that gasoline prices will eventually decline, despite continued volatility in global energy markets. Wright, who is slated to testify Wednesday before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, delivered his message during a closed-door GOP meet-and-greet Tuesday morning, according to three people in the room. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), who spoke with Wright, said the Energy secretary worked to reassure lawmakers. Carter said Republicans were “very confident” fuel prices would come down despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The national average gasoline price stood at about $4.16 per gallon Tuesday, according to AAA — down 37 cents from a month ago but roughly $1 higher than the same time last year. President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday that those prices were “not very high, relatively speaking.”

US Offers to Loan Up to 40 Million Barrels of Oil From Strategic Petroleum Reserve - (Reuters) – The U.S.is seeking to loan energy companies up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help push fuel prices down, the Department of Energy said on Wednesday. The latest U.S. offer to loan the oil is part of a previous U.S. agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility. So far the U.S. has loaned about 133 million barrels of the oil in that agreement. The U.S. agreed in March with about 30 fellow member countries of the International Energy Agency to release about 400 million barrels from global reserves to help calm oil markets after the U.S. and Israel began war on Iran on February 28. The SPR holds oil in caverns on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Inventories in the SPR, now at 349.2 million barrels, are at their lowest level since August 2023. Companies borrowing the oil are required to return the original volumes, with premiums ‌of ⁠up to 24% in the form of extra oil. The department says that system will help stabilize markets at no cost to U.S. taxpayers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said about 35 to 40 million barrels of extra oil will be returned this year and next in the form of premiums.

U.S. Rig Count Slips One to 562; Gas Rigs Hit Lowest Level Since October as Oil Activity Climbs | RBN Energy  U.S. oil and gas rig count slipped one rig to 562 for the week ending June 12 according to Baker Hughes data, as a two-rig decline in Gulf of Mexico outweighed gains in Anadarko (+1), the Eagle Ford (+1) and Haynesville (+1), while Permian (-1) and All Other (-1) also declined. Gas-directed rigs fell to 121 (-3), their lowest level since October 2025, while oil-directed rigs climbed to 433 (+2) and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 8. Haynesville's one-rig gain brought it back to 68, matching its highest level since May 2023, even as the overall gas-directed count fell. Total U.S. rig count is up nine over the last 90 days and now stands seven rigs above this week in 2025, extending positive year-over-year territory for the second consecutive week.

Trump DOJ to pay North Dakota $28M for Dakota Access protests -   The Trump administration has reached a settlement with North Dakota over the costs of protests over the controversial Dakota Access pipeline.The Justice Department said in a statement the agreement would provide “closure” for the people of the state who had been affected by the protests, which the administration described as sometimes rising “to the level of unlawfulness and confrontational violence.”North Dakota sued the Army Corps of Engineers in 2019, alleging the agency had failed to take proper action against protests challenging federal approval and construction of the oil conduit in 2016 and 2017. The state sought to recoup $38 million in funds spent to police the protests led by environmental groups and local tribes.

California Dems float offshore drilling crackdown - California’s two Democratic senators are introducing a bill Wednesday aimed at imposing stricter requirements on offshore oil and gas operators as the Trump administration pushes new production off their state’s coast. The “Offshore Leasing Standards and Accountability Act,” shared first with POLITICO, would set new minimum standards for operators to hold offshore leases, require annual compliance reviews by the Interior Department and mandate operators hold enough money in escrow to pay the full cost of decommissioning their rigs. The bill would “ensure that oil companies can’t just walk away from decommissioned projects and leave someone else to clean up the mess,” said Sen. Adam Schiff, who is leading the bill alongside Sen. Alex Padilla. Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) is introducing a House companion. The legislation comes as the Trump administration has ordered the restart of the Sable oil pipeline system off of Southern California and proposed new lease sales off the state’s coast for the first time in four decades.

What Factors Could Send California’s Natural Gas Prices ‘to the Moon?’ - Click here to tune into the latest episode of Hub & Flow featuring veteran natural gas trader and NGI Senior Vice President of Business Development & Client Support David Dutch. He examines the puzzle pieces coming together to pull historically low California natural gas prices out of the doldrums. The California energy market has historically been defined by extreme contradictions: a regulatory push toward renewables on one side, and total dependence on neighboring regions for physical natural gas on the other. A “perfect storm” early this spring pushed spot prices to historic lows across the state. But looming structural shifts — from cross-border LNG exports to massive data center buildouts — are forcing traders to prepare for a future of unprecedented upside volatility. nIn this episode, NGI's Christopher Lenton sits down with Dutch to break down the complex web of infrastructure keeping California powered. The conversation untangles how three distinct supply basins — West Texas, the Rockies and Western Canada — simultaneously flushed the West with cheap natural gas, and why a hyper-reliance on regional hydro and renewables leaves the state acutely vulnerable to massive basis spikes. Dutch also pulls back the curtain on Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG export plant, explaining why a reversed pipeline flow below San Diego could soon send Southern California prices to the moon on peak demand days.

Baker Lake diesel spill estimated to be between 600 and 1,000 litres – Territorial government officials are investigating after approximately between 600 and 1,000 litres of diesel fuel spilled in the Hamlet of Baker Lake. The spill was reported on June 3, said Greg Belanger, spokesperson for the Department of Transportation and Infrastructure, in an email. It’s unclear what caused it, but it’s suspected a faulty valve may have contributed to the problem, Belanger said. The spill occurred near the shore of Baker Lake, about 30 metres from the edge of the lake’s high-water mark. GPS co-ordinates on the territorial government’s spill database pinpoint the spill occurred near the hamlet’s fuel farm and Petroleum Products Division gas station. “While a small amount of fuel made it to the edge of the lake, immediate containment measures were put in place preventing further spread,” Belanger said in the email. “Current observations indicate that containment measures are secure and that no further fuel from the release will reach the lake.” There is no risk to drinking water or to human health, Belanger said. An environmental consultant is working with officials from the Departments of Health and Environment, and other regulatory agencies, to assess the spill and help with response.

Ksi Lisims Negotiating Another Deal to Sell Germany Canadian LNG - The Ksi Lisims LNG export project under development on the west coast of Canada has signed a tentative agreement to sell 2 Mt/y to Germany’s Uniper. LNG netback price comparison for Western Canada, Costa Azul and Cove Point versus AECO, SoCal Border, Transco Zone 5 and Waha forward gas prices.   At a Glance:
Deal follows another with SEFE
Project has 4 Mt/y of binding deals
First LNG could come by 2032

Canadian Rig Counts: Gas Rigs Up Four, Oil Rigs Up Five, Both Above Prior Five-Year Highs | RBN Energy In Western Canada this week, the gas-directed rig count rose by four to 58 rigs, while the oil-directed rig count gained five to 119 rigs. The gas-directed rig count is 11 higher than at this time last year, and two higher than prior five-year high for this time of year (see left chart below), while the oil-directed rig count is 28 rigs higher than at this time last year, and 16 higher than the prior five-year high for this time of year (see right chart below). The four rigs added to the gas-directed rig count were all added in the Alberta Foothills Front region, which is seeing an earlier than typical recovery from spring break-up season. The five-rig increase to the oil-directed rig count came from Saskatchewan (+5). In Alberta, the Northeast Alberta and Central Alberta regions both added a rig, while the East Central Alberta region dropped two rigs.

Alberta court fines Imperial Oil for Kearl spill breach (Reuters) - Canada's Imperial Oil was fined C$120,000 ($85,849.19) after pleading guilty in an Alberta court to breaching environmental regulations tied to an industrial ‌wastewater overflow at its Kearl oil sands site, the province's energy regulator said on Thursday. Following a May 29 hearing in the Alberta Court of Justice, the Canadian oil producer was ordered to ⁠pay C$2,000 in fines, including a victim surcharge, along with C$118,000 towards a creative sentencing project, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator. The company has taken actions to prevent reoccurrence, including reprogramming equipment, updating sediment management processes and increasing inspections and training, it said in an emailed statement. "No water from this overflow ‌entered ⁠any rivers and there continues to be no indication of adverse impacts to local wildlife. We continue to share monitoring data with local Indigenous communities and provide ⁠site tours of the area." The charge relates to an incident on February 4, 2023, in which wastewater overflowed from a ⁠drainage pond at the Kearl Oil Sands Processing Plant and Mine and was reported to ⁠the regulator. An environmental consultant is working with officials from the Departments of Health and Environment, and other regulatory agencies, to assess the spill and help with response.

Heiltsuk Nation reaches partial $12.5 million oil spill settlement | Vancouver Sun - The Heiltsuk Nation has reached a $12.2 million settlement with the U.S. company whose tug ran aground in 2016 on B.C.’s central coast and spilled 110,000 litres of diesel, closing an important clam fishery and important cultural area.The settlement includes an agreement to participate in a traditional Heiltsuk washing and healing ceremony in the Big House in Bella Bella and at the spill site.Despite the settlement, the Heiltsuk Nation said the lack of funding and work by Canada to help restore the ecosystem highlights continuing concerns about fuel and tanker spills along the coast as Alberta is calling for another oil pipeline to B.C.’s coast and the removal of an oil tanker ban in northern waters.“The other two respondents — Canada and Canada’s ship-source oil pollution fund — are nowhere to be found. Their absence is glaring as the federal government prepares to consider a pipeline and oil tanker proposal from Alberta that would impact the coastal waters and marine resources Indigenous peoples depend on here in B.C.,” said Marilyn Slett, elected chief of the Heiltsuk Nation.“We call on Canada and the SOPF to come to the table, to fulfil their responsibility to help restore the ecosystem, and to discuss compensation for our significant and outstanding losses. We will never give up, and we will always protect our territorial coastal waters,” said Slett.The Heiltsuk is among Coastal First Nations, also including the Haida, the Gitxaala, Gitg’at and Lax Kw’alams, who are opposed to removing the existing ban on oil tankers in northern B.C. A recent agreement between Ottawa and Alberta noted a preference for a northern route, and some industry observers have said a route to Prince Rupert would be best as it has a deepwater harbour that can handle super tankers. The Nathan E. Stewart, owned by Kirby Corp., travelling the Inside Passage from Alaska to Vancouver, ran aground and sank on a reef next to Athlone Island in the Seaforth Channel close to Bella Bella in the early hours of Oct. 13, 2016 The second mate fell asleep at the wheel while alone on the upper bridge.The Transportation Safety Board of Canada found the second mate was alone on the bridge — which contravened Canadian maritime law — and was seriously fatigued due to the six-on, six-off roster they were working and the conditions on the bridge at the time of the accident it was warm, dark, with quiet music playing, the seas were calm and the captain’s seat was comfortable.

Trans Mountain Pipeline Hits Full Capacity for First Time Since Expansion -Two years after a multibillion-dollar expansion transformed Canada's largest oil export pipeline, a key milestone has been reached as market dynamics continue to shift.(Reuters) — Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline is running at full capacity for the first time since the completion of a major expansion two years ago, but an executive said June 10 that ongoing global turmoil makes predicting future capacity rates difficult.

• The 890,000-barrel-per-day pipeline, which carries oil from the province of Alberta to British Columbia's west coast, is at apportionment for the month of June.
• Apportionment is an industry term for when shipper demand for spot capacity on a pipeline exceeds what is available.
• The uncertainty in global crude markets and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz have increased demand for Canadian oil from Asian markets, but have also made it difficult to predict the pipeline's utilization rates beyond the short-term, said Jason Balasch, vice president of business development for Trans Mountain.
• As recently as last summer, the Trans Mountain system, which is owned by the Canadian government, was only about 84% full.
• Oil production in Canada, the world's fourth-largest crude producer, is growing, with output in 2026 expected to exceed last year's record of 5.3 million bpd.
• Trans Mountain is currently planning several optimization projects, including the addition of drag-reducing agents and new pumping stations, which are expected to add 300,000 bpd of capacity to the system by the end of 2028.
• Alberta, Canada's main oil-producing province, has also been exploring the feasibility of a new 1-million-barrel-per-day crude oil pipeline to British Columbia's northwest coast to increase exports to Asia, but no private-sector company has committed to such an effort yet.
• Canadian heavy crude prices have improved sharply since the 2024 completion of the Trans Mountain expansion, which tripled the pipeline's capacity.

Alaska LNG Project Signs Labor Deal for 12,000 Construction Jobs - A major workforce agreement has been reached for the Alaska LNG project, offering new insight into how one of North America's largest proposed natural gas developments plans to move forward. (P&GJ) — Glenfarne's Alaska LNG project has signed a memorandum of understanding with several Alaska labor organizations aimed at prioritizing Alaska workers for construction and related activities on the proposed natural gas export project. The agreement was signed by Glenfarne subsidiary 8 Star Alaska and three statewide building trades organizations representing 18 unions affiliated with the Alaska AFL-CIO. The framework is intended to support future project labor agreements covering major phases of construction and related operations. The Alaska LNG project includes an 807-mile, 42-inch natural gas pipeline from Alaska's North Slope and a planned 20-MMtpy LNG export facility. Glenfarne owns a 75% interest in the project, while the Alaska Gasline Development Corp. holds the remaining 25%. Project developers estimate Alaska LNG could create approximately 12,000 construction jobs and up to 1,000 long-term operations positions if completed. The memorandum outlines cooperation on workforce availability, labor stability and construction planning as the project moves through development. Future project labor agreements are expected to cover camp construction and operations, logistics, compressor stations, gas treatment facilities, LNG export infrastructure and related site work. Pipeline installation activities, including right-of-way construction, pipe hauling, access roads, pipe yards and mainline construction, are expected to be addressed through a separate labor agreement currently under development with pipeline construction trades. Bronson Frye, president of the Building and Construction Trades Council of Southcentral Alaska, said union labor is prepared to meet the project's workforce demands. "Alaska unions are equipped to handle the workforce challenges associated with a project of this scale, including work across more than 800 miles and in some of the most demanding environments in the country," Frye said. Lake Williams, president of the Fairbanks Building and Construction Trades Council, said project labor agreements can help provide workforce stability and predictable labor costs during construction. Rex Canon, co-president of 8 Star Alaska, said the company intends to prioritize qualified Alaska workers as development progresses. "We are committed to using a skilled Alaska workforce as the primary source of construction labor and ensuring Alaska workers have access to the opportunities the project creates," Canon said. Alaska LNG is being developed in two phases. The first phase includes construction of the pipeline system to supply natural gas within Alaska, while the second phase would add LNG export facilities designed to ship up to 20 MMtpy to international markets.

US LNG Exporters Find Few Takers in Europe for New Supply - US liquefied natural gas developers expected Europe to become the cornerstone market for the next generation of export projects. Instead, the region is increasingly shying away from the long-term contracts needed to get them built. US executives are coming back empty-handed this year from the industry meetings and conferences where deals are usually forged. In conversations with Bloomberg, several gas exporters said that negotiations held with European counterparts over the past few months have produced plenty of interest but hardly any firm commitments for LNG as would-be buyers have grown wary of becoming too reliant on America. One exporter described the gap as a “cultural dissonance” in which Europeans are content to talk while Americans just want to close deals. Disruptions to Qatari LNG shipments caught up in the Iran conflict have pushed back expectations for a global supply glut by at least two years, the International Energy Agency said. But the delay does little to alter the longer-term picture of abundant new supply, much of it from the US, that still needs buyers. That has sharpened the focus on Europe, where companies have been slow to sign long-term contracts even as the region prepares to phase out Russian LNG imports by the end of the year. The shortage of long-term LNG deals risks constraining investment in US export infrastructure while increasing Europe’s exposure to price swings as buyers depend more on spot and short-term markets. “There is this obsession from the US that Europe should commit to more long-term contracts,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “There is also a concern that Europe is becoming too dependent on US LNG.” The slowdown in deals comes as relations between Washington and its European allies have become less predictable and at times strained as US President Donald Trump has imposed stiff tariffs and upended long-standing assumptions about America’s security commitments to the continent. Just one new long-term deal has been signed between the US and Greece. While companies in Europe’s largest gas-consuming markets like Germany, Italy and France are yet to agree anything. That compares to six contracts in 2025 for enough gas to power as many as 6 million homes, according to publicly available data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s a reversal from the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when European utilities rushed to the global LNG market to replace lost pipeline gas and the US and Norway emerged as key suppliers. For US LNG exporters, Europe’s retreat from long-term contracting is difficult to reconcile with the continent’s energy security needs and could have implications for future projects. One executive said Europe had long been viewed as the industry’s most attractive growth market because of the strong credit profiles of its utilities, but a lack of new commitments could make export projects harder to finance. Developers need to balance the cost of building with attractive offtake contracts when negotiating financing for multi-billion-dollar projects. Late last year, Energy Transfer abruptly halted development of the Lake Charles LNG export facility in Louisiana as rising costs pressured the project economics. Just last year, developers were buoyed by strong European demand, mounting pressure to phase out Russian fuel and expectations that the EU would sharply increase purchases of US fuel. In July, Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH signed a 20-year supply deal with Venture Global, while Eni SpA also inked an agreement and TotalEnergies SE backed major American export projects. By early 2026 that optimism was fading and European leaders began warning against relying too much on the US. Officials have grown increasingly uneasy about Trump’s trade threats, NATO rhetoric and stance on Greenland. Germany is particularly vulnerable, having swapped Russian gas for US LNG, getting 94% of imports from America. In February, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to the Middle East to try and diversify energy supplies and reduce reliance on the US, and companies began looking beyond America, most notably Canada, for future supplies. “There are commercial considerations, but the bigger challenge appears to be market and demand uncertainty,” said Richard Nelson, partner in the global energy practice at Mayer Brown. “Buyers are still trying to assess what European gas demand looks like through the next decade.” Originators, traders, and industry executives that spoke to Bloomberg on the condition on anonymity, said that Europeans seem increasingly comfortable relying on spot markets rather than locking in supplies decades ahead, particularly as uncertainty grows over how much gas the region will need as it decarbonizes. But that flexibility comes at the cost of greater exposure to supply shocks and price spikes. “As we have learned, having a long-term contract is not a guarantee to have LNG supply – talk to the customers of Qatar LNG,” said Columbia University’s Corbeau. The Iran war forced Qatar LNG to call force majeure on several cargoes. A saturation point has also been reached – most of the major LNG buyers in Europe have had their fill of US volumes and it’s down to the smaller, newer companies to sign further contracts. Among that pool of buyers, the size of the company and credit rating also plays a part. With selling to Europe on hold, US suppliers have turned elsewhere. Asia has stepped up efforts to secure cargoes since the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Buyers including Taiwan have made a renewed effort to negotiate more shipments from the US, including discussions on long-term deals. Demand in Asia due to searing summer temperatures is already creating competition with Europe and, once the Strait reopens, bartering for supplies from Qatar could be fierce. India is ramping up purchases of liquefied natural gas as it braces for rising summer temperatures and scrambles to substitute lost Qatari volumes. The country’s 30-day moving average for deliveries this week reached the highest level since 2024, after surpassing the five-year seasonal average in May, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Many European companies are reluctant to commit to contracts that extend into the 2040s as they pursue decarbonization targets and expect gas demand to decline.

Venture Global Doubles Greek LNG Deal as US Backs Europe Natural Gas Corridor - Venture Global and a growing Greek LNG importing firm have expanded a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) starting in 2030, doubling the previously contracted volumes. At a Glance:

• Greece strengthens regional gas hub
• CP2 contracting push continues abroad
• Transatlantic gas ties deepen further

Greece Doubles LNG Deal with Venture Global - A Greek LNG buyer has expanded its long-term partnership with Venture Global, a move that could further strengthen a key energy corridor serving Central and Eastern Europe. (P&GJ) — Venture Global and Greece-based Atlantic-SEE LNG Trade have expanded a long-term agreement for the supply of U.S. liquefied natural gas, doubling contracted volumes as Europe continues efforts to diversify energy supplies and strengthen regional energy security. Under the revised sales and purchase agreement, Atlantic-SEE will increase its contracted LNG purchases from Venture Global from 0.5 MMtpy to 1.0 MMtpy. The 20-year contract is scheduled to begin in 2030. Atlantic-SEE LNG Trade is a joint venture formed by Greek companies AKTOR Group and DEPA Commercial. The expanded agreement follows Venture Global's investment in regasification capacity at the Alexandroupolis LNG import terminal in Greece, where the company holds capacity rights representing about 25% of the facility's total throughput. The Alexandroupolis floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and the South-North Vertical Corridor are expected to play an increasing role in delivering U.S. natural gas to Central and Eastern Europe, providing an alternative supply route for the region. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel said the expanded agreement reflects growing energy cooperation between Europe and the United States. "The Vertical Corridor has emerged as an important energy route for the region," Sabel said. "Our investment in infrastructure, including the Alexandroupolis terminal, is helping create new pathways for reliable energy supplies across Central and Eastern Europe." Atlantic-SEE CEO Alexandros Exarchou said the larger contract supports the company's strategy to expand LNG access throughout the region. "The agreement highlights the potential of the Vertical Corridor to provide alternative supply options and strengthen energy security across Central and Eastern Europe," Exarchou said. Konstantinos Xifaras, chairman of Atlantic-SEE LNG Trade, said the additional volumes will help provide more reliable and predictable LNG supplies to customers across the region. The agreement further strengthens Greece's role as a gateway for U.S. LNG imports into Europe and highlights continued investment in infrastructure aimed at enhancing energy security across Central and Eastern European markets.

Germany Set to Boost LNG Import Capacity as Global Supplies Tighten Germany’s Deutsche Energy Terminal said Wednesday that the country’s fifth floating LNG storage and regasification unit (FSRU) would finally come online in September, completing a push that began in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and cut into Germany’s natural gas supplies. NGI chart showing European Union natural gas storage levels as of June 8, 2026. EU gas inventories stood at 484.16 TWh, equal to 42.8% of working gas capacity (1,131.47 TWh), compared with 568.91 TWh and 51.4% full a year earlier. Storage volumes were 84.7 TWh below year-ago levels and 157.5 TWh below the five-year average. The left chart compares current EU gas storage with the previous five-year range and average from June 2024 through June 2026, highlighting inventories tracking below historical norms. The right chart shows EU storage fullness percentages over the past five years, with seasonal peaks near 95-100% and lows below 30%, ending at 42.8% in June 2026. Source: Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), NGI calculations.   At a Glance:
-- Fifth FSRU coming online
-- European storage trailing five-year average
-- Germany developing emergency reserves

More LNG Tankers Slip Through the Strait of Hormuz - Another LNG carrier loaded with Qatari gas has passed through the Strait of Hormuz this week, bringing the total number of Qatari LNG cargoes that have cleared the chokepoint since the start of the war to five, Reuters reported today, citing data from Kpler and LSEG.The report noted that all in all, nine LNG vessels have exited the strait since February 28, including Qatari and Emirati cargoes. Meanwhile, a ballast LNG carrier has entered the Strait of Hormuz without issues, set to load at the UAE’s Das Island, according to Vortexa data, cited by Reuters.“In the UAE, ‌satellite imagery confirmed that ADNOC's Al Hamra carrier was near the Das Island terminal late last week, having completed an inbound transit of the chokepoint,” the analytics firm said. The tanker returned from a journey to deliver an LNG cargo to India.The threat to tankers attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz has created a new shipping reality in the Persian Gulf. Dark-mode activity, with transponders switched off, is no longer for Iran-linked vessels only. It has spread to commercial shipping of non-sanctioned barrels and other goods that typically move through the chokepoint, data from Vortexa showed last week. Dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz have accounted for 57% of all transits recorded over the period, peaking at 65.2% in May.Overall, oil and gas flows out of the Gulf remain a fraction of their pre-war levels, despite the adoption of “dark mode”. Still, there has been an increase in the number of tankers clearing the Strait of Hormuz in the past couple of weeks. Some of these were granted safe passage by the Iranian forces after negotiations between the governments of the receiving countries and Tehran.Earlier this week, Tehran said that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but shippers would have to pay a toll to pass through the chokepoint.

Coal Continues Taking Outsized Role in Asia Amid LNG Shortages - Asia’s coal demand is expected to continue soaring this year as the region confronts a deepening LNG supply gap amid a conflict in the Middle East that has no end in sight.Asia LNG parity price chart comparing JKM, Brent crude, coal and oil-linked LNG pricing, highlighting Asian natural gas market trends. At a Glance:
Region facing 35 Mt LNG supply gap
Coal use estimated to hit 70 Mt
Renewable capacity helping

Renewed Fighting Between Iran, Israel Lifts TTF, JKM as Supply Crunch Deepens -  An outbreak of fighting between Iran and Israel overnight again spooked natural gas markets and pushed European and Asian prices higher on Monday. At a Glance:

• TTF hits near highest in two weeks
• Asia pulling in more LNG
• Maintenance keeps US output down

Cargo vessel spills oil as it ran around in Ilocos Norte — A cargo vessel that ran aground in the vicinity waters off Barangay La Virgen Milagrosa, Badoc, in Ilocos Norte has spilled oil, said the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Tuesday. According to the PCG in a statement, authorities during an inspection confirmed the presence of oil leakage from the ship. READ: Oil spill in Guimaras town raises alarm over environmental damage “Today, June 9, 2026, the response team observed approximately 100 liters of oily water mixture along a 15-meter stretch of shoreline near the incident site,” the PCG said. “They also noticed that the previously deployed oil spill boom had shifted position due to prevailing conditions,” it added. Due to this, the PCG said it has already deployed absorbent pads and absorbent booms, and commenced recovery operations. It was on Monday June 8, when the PCG reported that the vessel, MV MSCI 1, conducted an emergency beaching off the waters of Barangay La Virgen Milagrosa, Badoc, in Ilocos Norte All 15 crew members of the ship have since been safely disembarked and are now in “good physical condition,” said the PCG.

Global oil inventories near 22-year low -Oil stockpiles in the world's largest economies were headed toward the lowest levels since at least 2003 as top consuming nations tapped inventories at a record pace to plug the loss of over 11 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern output due to the Iran war, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. Total oil inventories in the members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, the EIA said, based on its current assumption that marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027. Oil prices fell about 5% on Tuesday after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal from US President Donald Trump. Brent futures fell $4.30, or 4.6%, to $89.95 a barrel at 1638 GMT. US WTI crude slid $4.95, or 5.4%, to $86.35.

Oil Prices Increase Over $3 as Iran War Fears Return - Oil markets do not like uncertainty. They tolerate it briefly, price in a temporary premium, and wait for a resolution. What they struggle with is the kind of uncertainty that looks like it is resolving and then is not. That is exactly where markets found themselves on June 8, 2026, as a week that had briefly felt like progress was erased by fresh military action. Oil prices increase was seen after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets renewed fears that fragile ceasefire talks could collapse and prolong disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at USD 90.51, up 2.06 percent on the session, while Brent crude had climbed 2.17 percent to trade at USD 96.34. The oil prices increase arrived after both benchmarks had dropped more than 7 percent over the preceding days on ceasefire optimism. That optimism has now been sharply tested. The increase came after reports that the US military hit southern Iranian targets, and downed four Iranian drones. A US official from Central Command said the action was defensive, as the ground control station hit was about to launch a fifth drone. The strikes ran counter to a softening mood in the market as they were based on the hope that a diplomatic breakthrough would occur. Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker stated that the US naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon constituted violations of the ceasefire, and declared that US and Israeli bases and assets were now legitimate targets. Consequently, any path toward a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appeared to narrow significantly within hours of the strikes. Fresh strikes on Kuwait and Oman have also been reported in the region, further undermining the case for near-term de-escalation and keeping traders skeptical of diplomatic progress. The oil prices increase of June 8 does not exist in isolation. It is one move in a much longer run. WTI and Brent contracts remain more than 30 percent higher than when the US and Israeli-led war against Iran began on February 28, 2026. Before the war, Brent crude was priced at USD 69.36 and WTI at USD 66.64 per barrel on June 12, 2025, the day before the initial Israel-Iran strikes that began this escalation cycle. Today those benchmarks sit at USD 96 and USD 90 respectively. The Strait of Hormuz through which some 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, has been near-closed since the conflict escalated, leaving energy supplies structurally high and preventing them from coming in from the Persian Gulf. Goldman Sachs commented that uncertainty over the price of both the Brent and the WTI was two-sided, with the bank seeing as much risk to its forecast of USD 90 per barrel for Brent and USD 83 per barrel for the WTI from above as there was below. The inventory data makes the supply picture even starker. UBS said the global oil market was showing mounting signs of strain as inventories continued to fall amid disruptions to shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. Observed global oil inventories dropped by a combined 246 million barrels in March and April, while cumulative production losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May. OPEC+ members agreed in July to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day – the fourth oil output quota increase since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. So far, however, new OPEC+ supply has not been enough to compensate for the volumes that have been missing due to the fighting. Meanwhile, prices were pulled down by concerns about consumption in the wake of Chinese crude imports dropping to the lowest level in 10 years, as demand and refinery activity slowed. Global demand growth is expected to be much weaker this year, according to several analysts. The latest oil prices increase of June 8 indicates that the market is in a state of tug of war between two forces. Diplomatic optimism keeps prices from climbing further. Military escalation keeps them from falling. Until one side of that equation prevails, the volatility is unlikely to stop.

Oil prices climb more than $4 after Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon- PERTH/ BEIJING, June 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than $4 on Monday, with investors spooked by fresh Israeli strikes on Iran as well as renewed attacks on Lebanon a day earlier. Brent crude futures rose $4.42 or 4.47% to $97.15 a barrel as of 0609 GMT, while U.S. crude futures were up $4.07 or 4.50% at $94.61 per barrel. Israel said on Monday it hit a petrochemical plant in Iran's southwest, along with strikes elsewhere on military targets. That's despite U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from further attacks. In the first hit on an energy site inside Iran since the April 8 ceasefire, Israel said it struck targets at the Mahshahr petrochemical complex. A provincial official told Iran's semi-official Fars news agency parts of the plant were damaged. Hopes are now eroding for an imminent end to the wider war and a restart to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to transit. Monday's gains erased Friday's losses, when prices fell on hopes of a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Oil prices have climbed just under 60% since the start of the war in late February but remain below highs marked in March when Brent reached nearly $120 per barrel. On Sunday, Iran fired a salvo of missiles at Israeli targets in retaliation for the strikes on Lebanon. Even so, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that an agreement to end the wider war remains well within reach. Iran has made a ceasefire with Lebanon a condition for a peace deal with Washington. Israel invaded Lebanon in March after Iran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets and drones across the border. Lebanon and Israel said on June 3 that they had agreed to a ceasefire following negotiations in Washington. On Monday, Iran’s ambassador to Moscow was quoted as saying that the Strait of Hormuz will be open but under new conditions to be set by Iran and Oman, including a transit fee. "Of course, this strait will be open, but with new conditions to be determined by the Iranian and Omani authorities," Ambassador Kazem Jalali told the Russian newspaper Izvestia in an interview published on Monday. Tehran has been blocking most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports. O Amid the resulting supply crisis, OPEC+ on Sunday agreed its fourth increase in oil output in four months. But analysts said the decision would have little impact since most OPEC+ members could not meet their output targets because of the Hormuz closure or, in the case of Russia, infrastructure attacks that have eroded its production capacity. "In the current market, the physical impact of such a decision would be close to zero," Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a note to clients.

Oil Briefly Jumps After Israel and Iran Exchange Attacks (DTN) -- Crude oil futures jumped more than 5% in early morning trade on Monday after Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks for the first time since a ceasefire was declared in early April. That really eased after U.S. President Donald Trump called on Israel to exercise constraint and said that both sides were looking to immediately reestablish a ceasefire. By 8:15 a.m. ET, ICE Brent for August delivery was up $1.62 to trade near $94.71 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for July delivery rose $1.38 to $91.92 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for July delivery climbed $0.0727 to $3.6601 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures advanced $0.0553 to $3.1012 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.16 points to 99.89 against a basket of foreign currencies. Israel has over the past weeks stepped up its attacks on Lebanon, raising doubts over an imminent U.S.-Iranian peace deal as the cessation of the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah and incursion into Lebanese territory remained one of Tehran's central preconditions for further talks. Iran on Sunday launched missiles toward Israel after strikes on strongholds of the Iran-aligned militia in Beirut. Israel in response struck a petrochemical plant in Iran overnight. Oil prices jumped in reaction to the most serious flareup of hostilities of the last two months, but softened after Trump on Monday called on both sides to cease attacks and in a social media post claimed that "Israel and Iran are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE!" The Iranian military declaring an end to attacks on Israel also weighed on prices which pared most of earlier gains, but remained up on the day. Despite the unilaterally declared detente, several hurdles remained in place on the road to a permanent settlement of the conflict, including Tehran's demand for transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian maritime trade, which president Trump on Monday said will remain in place "until a 'Final Deal' is reached."

Oil Market Pared Gains as Iran Signaled End to Attacks on Israel - The oil market pared early gains and ended the session up 0.84% after rallying over 5.4% earlier in the session on an announcement from Iran’s military that a wave of attacks on Israel was over. The market rallied sharply higher on the opening on Sunday evening after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and attacks on Lebanon reduced hopes of an imminent end to the war with Iran. Israel struck a petrochemical plant in Iran that it said was used to produce ballistic missiles and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the country retaliated with a strike aimed at a similar Israeli facility in the city of Haifa. The exchange followed Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Beirut over the weekend. The oil market rallied to a high of $95.47 early Monday morning. However, the market erased all of its gains and sold off after Iran announced an end to its attacks on Israel. U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that Israel and Iran immediately stop the strikes against each other. The crude market sold off to a low of $90.39 by mid-morning. The market later retraced some of its losses and traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The July WTI contract settled up $1.76 at $91.30 and the August Brent contract settled up $1.26 at $89.25. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling up 1.25 cents at $3.5999 and the RB market settling up 2.47 cents at $3.0706. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the U.S. war with Iran is still preventing several of the group’s members from producing more. Seven core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 bpd. However, according to OPEC figures, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February. On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July. This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into account the UAE exit. The seven countries are increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time included UAE, agreed in 2023. From July, the seven have about 567,000 bpd of the original cut to return to the market, taking into account the UAE exit from May 1st. That would mean the rest of the cut will be unwound by the end of September should OPEC+ stick to monthly hikes of about 188,000 bpd for August and September. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 130,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 12th, increasing available refining capacity by 6,000 bpd from the previous week.

Oil prices ease after Israel, Iran halt attacks; markets eye ceasefire -International crude oil prices eased marginally on Tuesday morning after Israel and Iran signalled a pause in hostilities, easing immediate concerns over supply disruptions in West Asia.Around 7:40 am, the August contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $94.00 per barrel, down 0.27% from its previous close, while the July contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX fell 0.32% to $91.01 a barrel.In the previous session, oil prices had surged as much as 4% amid renewed tensions in the region.Both Iran and Israel indicated they had halted attacks on each other after exchanging fire for the first time since April's ceasefire.Iran's armed forces on Monday said they had concluded operations following the delivery of a "painful response" to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently said Tel Aviv was holding fire "at the moment".US President Donald Trump had earlier said both countries were moving towards an "immediate ceasefire"."Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on "Peace" are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a "Final Deal" is reached. Things should move quickly," he posted on Truth Social.Iran had launched missiles at Israel on Sunday in retaliation for the latter's strikes on Lebanon.Trump also indicated that the US could declare “total victory” over Iran in the coming weeks, according to a CNN report.We’re negotiating now, and they want to make a very good deal. They’re willing to give us everything, they’re willing to give us no nuclear weapon,” the report quoted him as saying.“I think we are winning that battle, but you’re really going to win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory, it’ll be a total victory, it’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down,” he added. A peace deal and the continued opening of the Strait of Hormuz could provide relief to the global economy, including India.India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, and every $1 increase in crude prices sustained over a year can raise the country’s annual import bill by around ₹18,000 crore. On Monday, Praveen Khanooja, additional secretary in the Union ministry of petroleum and natural gas, said under-recoveries for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) currently stand at ₹6 per litre on petrol and ₹30 per litre on diesel sales. The burden has eased following fuel price hikes implemented since 14 May and the recent moderation in crude prices.The daily cumulative under-recovery for OMCs, including losses on the sale of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), remains in the range of ₹600-700 crore, Khanooja said.

Oil Prices Slip on Israel-Iran Truce, Weak Demand Signals-- Oil futures slipped Tuesday morning after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other, reversing course from the previous trading day which saw a brief price rally sparked by a short-lived flareup of hostilities between the countries. By 8:30 a.m. ET, ICE Brent for August delivery was down $1.27 to trade near $92.98 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for July delivery fell $1.71 to $89.59 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for July delivery retreated $0.0180 to $3.5819 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures were little changed, down $0.0004 to $3.0702 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.33 points to 99.695 against a basket of foreign currencies. Prices jumped more than 5% in early morning trade Monday following this weekend's exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran, the first since the declaration of a ceasefire in early April. Later that day, both sides said that they would halt attacks for now, but did not rule out future strikes. China's National Bureau of Statistics, meanwhile, on Tuesday reported that the country's crude oil imports last month slumped to the lowest in more than eight years, and refinery runs were at their lowest since COVID-induced lockdowns slashed fuel demand. Chinese oil imports and refinery throughputs have long served as a bellwether for global demand growth. Domestic fuel consumption data published by the NBS also flashed bearish demand signals. Gasoline and diesel retail sales in May slipped more than 5% year-on-year, despite a slight drop in gasoline prices at the pump. Amid the dearth of deliveries from the Middle East caused by the largest supply disruption in history and limited alternatives, Chinese refiners were forced to slash runs and rely on commercial crude stockpiles, which have over the past two months dwindled rapidly. The global reliance on inventories has kept oil prices from soaring even higher. Worldwide oil stockpiles, which were at a five-year high at the beginning of the month, have plummeted to the lowest in eight years. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that inventories could hit a "red zone" by July or August should the Hormuz supply crisis not be resolved, which would force refiners to cut back on operations, raising the risk of fuel shortages.

Oil prices fall to seven-week low as Iran and Israel halt attacks  (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 3% to a seven-week low on Tuesday after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an ‌appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump.Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and he threatened that Washington would respond. Oil prices bounced off session lows following his remarks. Brent futures fell $2.80, or 3.0%, to settle at $91.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $3.10, or 3.4%, to settle at $88.20. It was the lowest settlement for Brent since April 17 and for WTI since May 29. It was also the first time since January that Brent closed below its 100-day moving average of technical support."The oil market is drafting lower ... as ⁠the latest shooting match between Israel and Iran was [defused] in favor of a ceasefire and as Trump continues to talk the market lower by suggesting that an end of the war with Iran could be reached in 2-3 days with negotiations in their final stages," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. On Monday, Israel and Iran halted direct attacks on each other after Trump urged them to stop. Tehran said it would resume hostilities if Israel continued to attack the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Iran has so far held back from attacking even though Israel struck the historic port city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, killing at least eight people.Iran, meanwhile, continued to block most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Washington has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on ‌Tuesday that ⁠ship traffic in the Gulf and oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are rising even as Washington and Tehran struggle to reach a deal on ending their more than three-month-old war.Elsewhere around the world, China's May crude imports slumped 29% to their lowest level in eight years, extending a sharp decline in the world's largest oil importer that is helping keep a lid on global oil prices.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the Iran war would slash world petroleum production to ⁠an average of 99.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a record 106.1 million bpd in 2025.EIA also forecast that world oil demand would slide to 102.9 million bpd in 2026 from a record 104.0 million bpd in 2025. The agency said countries would pull any barrels they needed from storage, cutting inventories in the ⁠Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to their lowest level since at least 2003, when EIA's dataset began. Looking ahead, the oil market awaited weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group on Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday.Analysts estimated energy firms pulled 4.0 million barrels of crude from ⁠U.S. storage during the week ended June 5.If correct, that would be the first time since January 2025 that energy firms pulled crude out of storage for seven weeks in a row. Inventories declined by 3.6 million barrels in the same week last year.

Oil prices surge after Donald Trump issues new threat against Iran | Asianet - Global crude oil prices rose on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump issued his latest threat to Iran for being too slow to negotiate a peace deal. Taking to his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump said that Iran will have to pay the price for being slow to arrive at a peace deal. "Iran's Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn't even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action," Trump said on Truth Social. "The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!" Oil prices rose immediately after Trump's latest threat, with US West Texas Intermediate crude oil at USD 90.11, up 2.17 per cent, while the international benchmark Brent crude was trading at USD 93.19, rising 1.9 per cent, according to Reuters.The recent phase of escalation between the US and the Iranian regime came after the US carried out airstrikes on Iran's military targets located along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating against the downing of an American Apache helicopter. Iran said it responded with strikes on a US base in Jordan and other Gulf targets. The recent escalation belies hopes of a durable truce between the two adversaries, as Trump consistently maintains that the two sides are nearing a deal. US stock futures also fell as investors await key consumer inflation numbers. Economists expect inflation to rise further as energy prices remain elevated owing to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Federal Reserve, which is meeting to decide interest rates on June 16-17, will parse the latest inflation print along with strong jobs data for May, even as experts have pared bets for a cut this year.

Crude oil prices surge as US-Iran tensions escalate - Global crude oil prices traded higher on Wednesday, increasing by up to 1 per cent after the United States launched strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes raised concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies from the strategically important region. International benchmark Brent crude gained about 1 per cent to hit $93.26 per barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.97 per cent to trade around $90 per barrel. The latest gains followed a statement from the US military, which confirmed it had carried out “self-defence strikes” on Iranian air defence, ground control, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command stated that it launched the operation in response to the reported downing of a US Army Apache helicopter in the region. However, Iran denied responsibility for the incident, claiming the helicopter crashed accidentally. The development marks a fresh escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran at a time when markets expected a gradual easing of hostilities in West Asia. Weak investor and trader sentiment also triggered selling pressure in global equities. Meanwhile, reports claim that US crude oil inventories fell last week for an eighth consecutive week. Tehran also threatened to reopen hostilities if Israel persisted in attacking the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. In addition, Asian markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both fell more than 1 per cent, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.

Oil Prices Extend Gains After Another Big Crude Draw, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom -  Oil prices are higher this morning on renewed fighting between the US and Iran (and Trump rhetoric), while API reported a major crude inventory draw (for an eighth week in a row). Additionally, in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the closure of the Strait is depleting global inventories, keeping prices high. "Global oil markets remain highly volatile as very limited shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil producers in the Middle East to reduce crude oil production by more than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) in May compared with pre-conflict levels. This drop in production has resulted in large global inventory draws to meet demand. Under our assumptions, we expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 6.3 million b/d in 2Q26 and by 7.6 million b/d in 3Q26," the agency said. So this morning, all eyes are on the official data to see just how fast those inventories are depleting... API

• Crude -9.1MM
• Cushing -1.1MM
• Gasoline -1.2MM
• Distillates +1.3MM

DOE

• Crude -7.23mm
• Cushing -801k
• Gasoline +186k
• Distillates -200k

Following API's reported a huge crude draw, the official data showed a seventh straight week of crude inventory declines. Gasoline stocks saw a build for the second week in a row... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Cushing 'tank bottoms' are looming... US gasoline stocks are barely off their lowest levels since 2014 for this time of year... The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another huge drawdown this week for a total of 66.2 million barrels since the Iran 'mini-war' started (16% of the pre-war total)... Rig counts continue to rise with US crude production just shy of record highs... US crude and product exports dipped last week but remain notably elevated from pre-war levels... WTI was hovering just below $90 ahead of the official data Despite the higher tensions, crude futures are down by more than a quarter since their peak at the end of April, aided by a combination of a plunge in Chinese imports to multiyear lows, record American oil exports and large releases of emergency reserves. The retreat is a sign that oil markets are, for now at least, coping with the disruption and physical markets look well supplied. “At the moment the market is trying to find some equilibrium,” Wael Sawan, Chief Executive Officer of Shell Plc, said on the sidelines of the Wall Street Journal CEO Council in London. “It’s more driven by short-term headlines. And so if I look at the reality, we’re of course drawing down on those inventories fast.”

Crude settles up $2 after Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘very hard’ -- Crude oil prices closed up nearly $2 on Wed­nes­day after Pres­id­ent Don­ald J. Trump said the US is going to attack Iran “very hard” if no peace deal is final­ized. Brent crude futures settled at $93.10 a bar­rel, up $1.65 or 1.8%. US crude futures fin­ished at $90.03 a bar­rel, up $1.83, or 2%. Both con­tracts jumped about $3 in after­noon trad­ing after Mr. Trump reit­er­ated that Iran would be attacked again fol­low­ing an exchange of fire overnight that was one of the most sig­ni­fic­ant since an April cease­fire. Prices pared gains toward the ses­sion’s close after Mr. Trump said the US mil­it­ary secretly escor­ted ships car­ry­ing more than 100 mil­lion bar­rels of oil out of the Strait of Hor­muz. Global oil con­sump­tion is roughly 100 mil­lion bar­rels per day. Mr. Trump sug­ges­ted the oper­a­tion had helped keep prices in check, telling report­ers at the White House that crude would oth­er­wise be “at $250” instead of “$85-$90 a bar­rel.” His remarks fol­lowed a Truth Social post in which he said Tehran would have to “pay the price” for allegedly drag­ging out nego­ti­ations for a peace deal. Prices were also sup­por­ted by data from the US Energy Inform­a­tion Admin­is­tra­tion which showed US crude stocks fell sharply last week as refiners scrambled to fill sup­ply gaps caused by the war. US crude invent­or­ies fell by 7.2 mil­lion bar­rels in the week ended June 5, the agency said, a far big­ger draw than the 4 mil­lion bar­rels expec­ted by ana­lysts in a Reu­ters poll. The data showed invent­or­ies in the US Stra­tegic Pet­ro­leum Reserve at their low­est levels since August 2023. The US mil­it­ary struck Ira­nian tar­gets after Mr. Trump vowed on Tues­day to respond to the down­ing of a US Apache attack heli­copter. The US mil­it­ary also car­ried out a “pre­ci­sion” strike on a ves­sel in the Gulf of Oman on Wed­nes­day that failed to fol­low its instruc­tions and was car­ry­ing oil from Iran, it said, while India said three of its sea­farers were miss­ing after the attack. In what could fur­ther com­plic­ate talks, the United Nations nuc­lear watch­dog’s 35-nation Board of Gov­ernors passed a USbacked res­ol­u­tion on Wed­nes­day telling Iran to declare its remain­ing enriched uranium stocks and let inspect­ors verify them.

Oil prices surge as fresh US strikes on Iran threaten fragile truce - Oil jumped on June 11 after the US started new strikes on Iran, with the Islamic Republic responding by announcing a halt to all vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, putting further strain on a fragile ceasefire. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US oil benchmark, surged 4 per cent to trade above US$93 a barrel before paring some gains after President Donald Trump told Fox News the bombing would stop shortly following direct talks with Iranian officials.   At 8.30am Singapore time, WTI was up 2.3 per cent at US$95.19. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.6 per cent to US$92.38. The United States launched strikes after Trump accused Tehran of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. Iran said Hormuz has been completely closed, according to Press TV, which also reported the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two vessels in the strait that were attempting passage. Tehran has allowed some ships to cross since the war started via a mixture of tolls and government agreements. However, the US military said on X that commercial ships are continuing to transit Hormuz. The fresh US attacks follow strikes on June 9 in retaliation for the downing of an American helicopter off Oman. Renewed hostilities threatens to extend the near-total closure of the Strait, which has choked off supplies of crude, fuels and natural gas since the start of the war in late February. “The next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle,” said Jorge Leon, the head of geopolitical analysis at consultant Rystad Energy. “Oil price volatility is likely to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence” for the ceasefire holding, he added. US Central Command said it began “additional self-defense strikes” that are in response to Iran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression.” In response to the American strikes on June 9 over the downing of the helicopter, Iran retaliated with attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. Late on June 10 in the US, Trump posted on social media that the US military had supported the passage of “more than 200 commercial ships” through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in “more than 100 million barrels of oil” making it to market. He went on to claim the US controls the strait, “not Iran.” There has been a trickle of oil flows exiting the Persian Gulf under the cover of darkness, and physical markets are showing some signs of ample supply. Still, the disruption to Middle East shipments has driven energy prices higher, including retail US gasoline, and raised concerns about slowing economic growth. Separately, US government data on June 10 showed US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, extending declines for a seventh week. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, also dropped slightly.

Oil Slides as Trade Gauges Impact of Mideast Escalation (DTN) -- Oil prices slid Thursday (6/11) as market participants tried to assess whether fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict between the U.S. and Iran would add to the global supply deficit or represented geopolitical noise of a familiar kind. Since Monday, the downing by Iran of a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in intense war language from the Trump administration pledging a commensurate response. Tehran has been equally vocal with its rhetoric. But media coverage of the new hostilities appeared limited to military targets and not energy infrastructure. Over the past 48 hours, the U.S. directed precision strikes toward peripheral targets, coastal radar stations, and two southern Iranian water reservoirs, bypassing vital oil production fields. Tehran countered with missile salvos against heavily fortified allied military hubs in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, although many of these appeared to have been intercepted. After rallying 2% or more Wednesday on the new tensions in the Gulf and following a seventh weekly U.S. crude drawdown announced by the Energy Information Administration, energy markets pulled back by mid-morning Thursday, taking into account the latest nature of the escalation. By 9:25 a.m. ET, NYMEX WTI crude for July delivery fell $0.45 to $89.58 bbl, after a session high at $93.64. ICE Brent for August slid $0.64 to $92.50 bbl after peaking at $ 95.50. Downstream, on NYMEX, July ULSD slipped by $0.0216 to $3.5910 gallon, while July RBOB retreated by $0.0042 to $3.1057 gallon. On the forex market, the U.S. dollar index remained just beneath the key 100-point level, rising 0.216 points to 100.150 against a basket of foreign currencies. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. wholesale inflation accelerated sharply in May, with producer prices jumping 6.5% over the past 12 months, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Thursday. The steep annual surge underscores intensifying inflationary pressures across the domestic supply chain, marking the fastest pace of wholesale price gains since a 7.4% spike in November 2022.

Oil Market Retreats Despite Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions - The oil market erased overnight gains and ended the session lower after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled strikes against Iran that had been scheduled for later on Thursday evening. The market posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the escalating tension in the Middle East against the news that the U.S. and Iran had discussed and approved final points in a peace deal and were ready to sign an agreement. Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran had escalated further, with tit-for-tat attacks across Iran and on U.S. bases in the region following Monday’s downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday evening, the U.S. military’s Central Command announced strikes were complete about four hours after they began soon after midnight in Tehran, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched counter-attacks on 18 U.S. military targets at airbases in Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Also, Iran’s joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, including for oil tankers and commercial ships, saying any vessel attempting passage would come under fire. The crude market gapped higher on the opening from $91.87 to $92.25 and posted a high of $93.64. However, the market erased its gains amid reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiations were still continuing despite the strikes against each other. The market backfilled its gap and traded to $88.63 in early morning trading before the market bounced off that level and traded back over the $91.00 level as President Trump once again stated that the U.S. would strike Iran on Thursday. The market later sold off to a low of $86.54 ahead of the close after President Trump reversed course and cancelled planned strikes against Iran. The July WTI contract settled down $2.32 at $87.71 and continued to sell off in the post settlement period, posting a low of $85.81. The August Brent contract settled down $2.72 at $90.38. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9.95 cents at $3.5131 and the RB market settling down 85 points at $3.1014.  OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 bpd, marking the second straight downward revision. The current OPEC forecast reduced the expected oil demand growth this year from 1.17 million bpd seen previously. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 1.73 million bpd, up 190,000 bpd from the previous forecast. OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.13 million bpd in May, down 190,000 bpd from April.Saudi Arabia’s crude oil sales to China are expected to remain at record lows in July as elevated prices in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continue to weigh on demand from the world’s largest crude importer. The allocations indicate that refiners remain reluctant to import high-priced barrels following run cuts and as they draw on domestic inventories. Saudi Aramco will ship about 12 million barrels or about 387,096 bpd of oil to customers in China for July loading.Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline is running at full capacity for the first time since the completion of a major expansion two years ago, but an executive said that ongoing global turmoil makes predicting future capacity rates difficult. The 890,000 bpd pipeline, which carries oil from the province of Alberta to British Columbia’s west coast, is at apportionment for the month of June.

Oil extends losses as Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran AM June 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday, extending losses from the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled plans to strike Iran, reducing fears of an escalation of hostilities following tit-for-tat attacks earlier in the week. Brent futures fell $1.21 or 1.3% to $89.17 a barrel at 0042 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was $1.23, or 1.4%, lower at $86.48. On a weekly basis, Brent was 4.2% lower, while WTI was down 4.4%. Trump, who had threatened to hit Iran "very hard," called off planned strikes on Thursday, saying discussions with Iran had progressed. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that Tehran had not approved the text of any agreement. "While this could, of course, be yet another false dawn, the market's reaction has been both swift and decisive," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. On Wednesday, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying any vessel attempting to pass through would come under fire. Tehran's months-long blockade of the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has kept oil prices elevated. The U.S. military said on social media commercial ships continued to transit the waterway. Even as oil prices correct downwards, "as long as the price can hold above support in the low $80s, the risks remain firmly skewed to the upside," IG's Sycamore said.

Oil prices fall after Trump cancels 'planned strikes' on Iran, says deal to be signed 'shortly' -  Global oil prices fell below $90 per barrel on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled the "planned strikes" on Iran and said a deal with Tehran had been approved and would be signed "shortly". The August contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $89.37 per barrel, down 1.14% from its previous close. The July contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.98% to $86.85 a barrel. The decline came after Trump's announcement suggested a possible de-escalation in tensions that had rattled energy markets this week. The White House, quoting Trump on X, said:"Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized - Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly." Further, speaking at the Oval Office, Trump said he expects an agreement to be signed “over the next few days”.The reversal came after the US president earlier on Thursday threatened to hit Iran "very hard" with fresh strikes and floated the possibility of taking control of Kharg Island, home to one of Iran's key oil export terminals.However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said the deal had not yet been finalized, while accusing the US of making "excessive demands" and introducing new conditions into the negotiations, according to a BBC report.The latest developments come after the conflict escalated earlier this week, with Iran announcing a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Amid the escalation in recent days, three vessels carrying Indian crew members have reportedly been hit by US forces.  US forces on Thursday struck MT Jalveer, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged vessel carrying 20 Indian crew members. The incident came days after a similar attack on another ship carrying Indian sailors, prompting India to reiterate its call for an end to attacks on commercial shipping in the region. Addressing reporters on Thursday, ministry of external affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said attacks on ships in the region were a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict and posed serious concerns for maritime safety.Jaiswal said US chargé d'affaires Jason Meeks was summoned to the ministry on Wednesday to register India's strong protest over attacks on vessels carrying Indian crew members.He added that India had separately condemned the attack on Settebello on Monday, in which three Indian nationals were killed.

Oil Tumbles 3% on US-Iran Ceasefire Optimism-- Crude prices tumbled about 3% Friday to near two-month lows after U.S. President Donald Trump called off planned retaliatory airstrikes on Iran, easing tensions in a Middle East conflict that turned hostile in recent days after months of ceasefire. Media reports that a peace deal could be signed as early as Sunday added to the market retreat. More Recommended for You By 9:10 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for July delivery fell $2.18 to $85.53 barrel (bbl), after a session low at $83.20. ICE Brent for August slid $1.93 to $88.45 bbl after tumbling to $85.80 earlier. Downstream, on NYMEX, July ULSD slipped by $0.1037 to $3.4094 gallon, while July RBOB retreated by $0.0451 to $3.0563 gallon. In Forex trade, the U.S. Dollar Index remained just beneath the key 100-point level, staying flat at 99.85 against a basket of foreign currencies. Crude prices were on track to their third weekly loss in four amid talk that a bilateral memorandum to halt Gulf hostilities could be signed as early as Sunday, with Geneva positioned as the likely venue. Iran has, however, not confirmed the prospects for such a deal. Separately though, Iranian news outlets indicated that formal nuclear discussions related to a peace deal would commence within a 60-day window of the signing of such a memorandum. The four-month long Iran war has caused the most severe disruption in global oil supply as blockades by both Iran and the U.S. on different ends of the Strait of Hormuz choke off 20 million bpd of petroleum liquid cargoes.

U.S. crude oil falls below $85 as U.S. and Iran near a deal to reopen Hormuz - Oil prices fell Friday as the U.S. and Iran neared an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though a senior Trump administration official said the outcome still was not certain. U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.2% to close at $84.88 per barrel. Brent futures, the international benchmark, lost 3.4% to settle at $87.33. Prices lost about 6% this week though they are still up more than 20% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The Trump administration official said they see an 80% chance that the U.S. and Iran will sign an agreement in the coming days. “It’s not 100%,” the official said. “Their system is very complicated. Most of the people that we’ve been speaking to and most of the people who have authority within their system want to sign this deal, but not everybody.” The deal would reopen Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade, dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and remove its enriched uranium, the official said. Iran would receive financial incentives if they comply with the agreement, the official said. The agreement outlined by the Trump administration contradicted a document released earlier Friday by Iranian state news agency Mehr that seemed more favorable to Tehran. The Iranian document said the U.S. would agree to withdraw its forces from around the Islamic Republic, lift its naval blockade in 30 days, and provide $300 billion in reconstruction money. Iran would reopen Hormuz in 30 days but under arrangements set by Tehran. The Trump official said Iranian hardliners were trying to make the deal look more favorable to Tehran to satisfy their domestic constituencies. President Donald Trump categorically denied the Iranian text represented the agreement reached between Washington and Tehran. “The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Trump disparaged the Iranians as “very dishonorable people to deal with” who do not negotiate in good faith. He accused Iran of launching a drone at an Indian vessel overnight, denouncing the attack as unacceptable. “They better get their act together, and FAST!” the president said. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has mediated U.S.-Iran talks, said an “incessant misinformation campaign” was being “waged by those who want to sabotage a peace deal.” “Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps,” Sharif said. “Peace has never been this close as it is now,” the prime minister said. Shortly after Trump denied the Iranian report, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a social post that a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran “has never been closer.” “Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content,” Araghchi said. “In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.” Trump then reposted Araghchi’s social media post. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said fake information was circulating about a deal to reopen Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear program. Vance said Tehran will not receive any cash and funds will not be released just for signing a deal or attending a meeting. “The deal is structured to ensure that the US and its allies concerns are prioritized, and that if the Islamic Republic of Iran meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region,” the vice president said in a social media post.

West Asia Conflict Could Push Crude Oil Prices To $150 Per Barrel -- Global crude oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel if hostilities between the US and Iran resume in earnest, according to a report. According to analysis by Oslo-headquartered energy research and intelligence firm Rystad Energy, which said the latest escalation between the US and Iran has pushed the April ceasefire to its most difficult moment so far, triggering a rise in oil prices and a decline in financial markets, including US equities.Handshake Finance Integration According to the report, as much as 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production remains shut in across six Gulf producers, making the conflict the most significant supply disruption seen in modern energy markets. “At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode,” said Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy. He noted that uncertainty surrounding the conflict was reflected in oil price movements, with Brent front-month crude rising sharply to around $94.5 per barrel before easing back towards $93 per barrel. Leon said the immediate impact of the disruption could be moderated by record releases from strategic petroleum reserves, lower crude imports by China and the continued movement of around 5 million bpd of crude through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export route, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. “The direction of travel is now more uncertain, and the next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle,” Leon said. In addition, the report stated that probability of a near-term diplomatic agreement has diminished from Rystad Energy's earlier assessment of around 40 per cent a few weeks ago. As a result, oil price volatility is expected to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic efforts regain momentum. According to the report, the West Asia conflict has already erased around 1 billion barrels of cumulative crude supply from global markets in the three months since the first shots were fired. Moreover, the volume is equivalent to nearly two-and-a-half times the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. On Thursday, international oil benchmark Brent crude traded more than 2 per cent higher at around $95 per barrel. While US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.

“Elect a Clown, Expect a Circus”: Trump’s Strange Statistics on “Victory” and the “Destruction of Iran” – According to a review of publicly available data from Donald Trump’s speeches and posts on the Truth Social platform from the start of the war with Iran (February 28) through today (June 12), a striking pattern of repeated and unsubstantiated claims has emerged:

• 55 declarations of Iran’s “defeat”
• 35 assertions of Iran’s “total destruction”
• 38 promises of an “imminent agreement”
• 25 claims that the Strait of Hormuz remains “open”

These statements stand in contrast to developments on the ground, which reportedly include continued Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases across the region, the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz (allegedly confirmed by satellite imagery), and the failure of any of the promised “decisive victories” to materialize. An old saying in American politics goes: “Elect a clown, expect a circus.” In political psychology, the compulsive repetition of a claim that contradicts observable reality is often associated with cognitive dissonance and an attempt to escape uncomfortable facts. Trump, who entered office promising to “end endless wars,” now finds himself entangled in a conflict that has not only continued but has expanded across the region. Each time satellite images allegedly showing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or reports of casualties at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain emerge, he appears compelled to calm public opinion by repeating hollow slogans. The claim of Iran’s “defeat” has reportedly been repeated 55 times, despite assertions that Iran has not been defeated and has instead imposed what some describe as a “new deterrence equation” on the region. Trump has claimed 35 times that “Iran has been destroyed.” Yet, according to reports cited by his critics, less than 24 hours after one of those statements, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched dozens of ballistic missiles at U.S. military installations in three countries and targeted F-35 fighter jets at Jordan’s Al-Azraq Air Base. Under Trump’s definition, critics argue, “destruction” appears to mean little more than the rapid regeneration of military capabilities.CNN recently reported that Trump had claimed at least 38 times since the outbreak of the war that an agreement was “imminent” (with the figure now reportedly reaching 39). Yet no agreement has been signed to date, and negotiations have allegedly stalled due to Iran’s insistence on a “full ceasefire in Lebanon” and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets. The repeated use of this claim has not only failed to build trust in Tehran but, according to critics, has also led many of Washington’s European and Arab allies to stop taking Trump’s statements seriously. 25 Claims That the Strait of Hormuz Is Open: A Narrative Challenged by Satellite Imagery The latest example of what critics call this “circus” came last night when Trump declared that “the Strait of Hormuz is open and ships are passing through.” However, satellite images circulated afterward reportedly suggested otherwise. According to those reports, no traffic was moving through the strait and oil tankers remained anchored in port. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) later issued a vague statement referring only to an ongoing “assessment of the situation.” For critics, this growing gap between rhetoric and reality has become a defining feature of Trump’s foreign policy. Public opinion in the United States—and even among many of Washington’s allies—is increasingly concluding that Trump’s claims lack a factual foundation. The remarkable number of assertions regarding “victory,” “destruction,” and an “imminent agreement” has, according to critics, not only eroded trust in the White House but also diminished the credibility of the American presidency on the international stage. In this view, the only person benefiting from the “circus” is Trump himself, who keeps his hardline political base engaged through fiery rhetoric. Meanwhile, events on the ground continue to unfold regardless of the slogans: Iran appears more resilient than before, the Strait remains contested, and the United States finds itself trapped in a crisis from which, critics argue, the only exits are either acknowledging failure or escalating toward a far more dangerous confrontation.

The Latest: Israel and Iran trade fire in most serious confrontation since April ceasefire - The Washington Post  --The Middle East braced for the possibility of a return to full-scale war after Israel and Iran fired at each other . It was the first such exchange since a ceasefire two months ago. Also Monday, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a missile at Israel and threatened to disrupt Red Sea shipping.

Suez Canal traffic jumps nearly 30% as Strait of Hormuz disruption pushes more oil shipments through Egypt- Egypt's Suez Canal is experiencing an unexpected revival as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push more energy shipments toward the Red Sea route, providing a much-needed boost to one of the country's most important sources of foreign exchange. New data from Egypt's state statistics agency, CAPMAS, shows that the number of oil tankers crossing the canal rose sharply in April, helping drive canal revenues to their highest level since early 2024. A total of 529 oil tankers transited the waterway during the month, a 28% increase compared to the same period last year. Overall traffic also improved, with 1,182 vessels of all types passing through the canal, up 14% year-on-year, per Bloomberg. The increase comes amid major disruptions to global energy trade following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic maritime chokepoints. Before the conflict involving Iran escalated earlier this year, roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports moved through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. With traffic severely restricted, major producers have been forced to seek alternative routes. The shift in shipping patterns is beginning to show up in Egypt's finances. Suez Canal revenues reached $419 million in April, representing a 27% increase from a year earlier and marking the strongest monthly performance since the Houthis intensified attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea in early 2024. The canal remains a crucial pillar of Egypt's economy alongside tourism, remittances, and natural gas exports. However, authorities estimate that disruptions linked to Red Sea insecurity have cost the country at least $9 billion in lost revenue over the past two years. Despite the recent recovery, canal activity remains far below historical norms. CAPMAS data shows that more than 2,300 vessels crossed the Suez Canal in April 2023, nearly double the current volume. Analysts say a full recovery would provide a significant economic boost for Egypt, helping narrow its current-account deficit and strengthen foreign currency reserves at a time when the country continues to face external financing pressures. For now, however, the turmoil reshaping global energy routes is offering Egypt a rare economic silver lining.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threaten Israeli shipping in the Red Sea (Reuters) - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday that they would ban Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, adding to challenges for global shipping through the Middle East during the Iran war. The group said in a statement it had launched an attack on Israel and enacted a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, warning of further escalation. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping may worry energy markets more than three months into Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and with the war reigniting overnight. A Houthi source told Reuters that preventing Israeli ships from transiting the Red Sea was a first step, and that further escalation could lead it to stop the passage of any ships bound for Israel as well as other measures. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping during the two-year Gaza war that began in October 2023 led major companies including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to divert around Africa - a far longer, more expensive route. During that period, Houthi attacks on what the group called Israeli-linked vessels were expanded to include any shipping companies that used Israeli ports. The impact of any sustained threat to Red Sea shipping could be bigger now, however, given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Most Gulf energy production has been unable to leave the region since the war began on February 28. However, significant volumes of Saudi crude have been transported by pipeline to its Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu. The United Arab Emirates has also managed to export some crude from Fujairah, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, though there have been Iranian attacks on this terminal as well.

Yemen's Houthis Announce 'Ban' on Israeli Shipping in the Red Sea – -On Monday, Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, announced a “ban” on Israeli shipping on the Red Sea, renewing a blockade that the US had previously failed to end with a bombing campaign.“We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be legitimate military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued,” said Houthi military spokesman Yayha Saree.Saree also announced a missile attack on Israel that was launched on Monday morning, and on Monday evening, Israeli media reported that the Israeli military had intercepted a drone fired from Yemen.Yemeni forces had fired some missiles at Israel toward the end of the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, but for the most part, the Houthis stayed out of the war and didn’t attempt to blockade the Red Sea or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Any Yemeni attacks on Red Sea shipping are expected to have a much bigger impact on global energy markets than before due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Saree said the Houthis, which governs the capital of Sanaa and an area of Yemen where 70% to 80% of Yemenis live, were taking these steps to confront “the American and Zionist aggression against the axis of Jihad and Resistance in Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen” and to reject “the Zionist project seeking to establish what is so called ‘Greater Israel.'”The announcement and Houthi attacks came after the Iranian military struck northern Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, marking the first time Iran targeted Israel in the name of defending one of its allies, in this case Hezbollah. Iran has threatened more attacks on Israel if its war in southern Lebanon continues. Saree said Yemeni forces “will respond to escalation with escalation, and our military operations will intensify in accordance with the field developments, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and resistance.”The Houthis are known for their resilience as they withstood a brutal seven-year US-backed Saudi/UAE bombing campaign and blockade from 2015 to 2022, which killed at least 377,000 people. A heavy US bombing campaign from March 15, 2025, to May 6, 2025, also failed to end the Houthis’ Red Sea blockade on Israeli shipping and attacks on Israel, which were being done in response to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.

Global trade faces 'two-front crisis' as Iran war sparks second strait blockade -The Yemeni Houthis announced early Monday they would impose a “complete ban” on Israeli sea vessels from passing through the Red Sea, a partial blockade that risks hitting global trade with a “two-front crisis” as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, several outlets reported. “We declare a complete ban on enemy navigation in the Red Sea and we consider any Zionist movements to be military targets for our forces,” said Houthi spokesman Brig Gen Yahya Al Saree in a televised statement released on Monday, according to the United Arab Emirates news outlet The National.  “We will respond to escalation with escalation and our operations will intensify in line with the battle and in conjunction with the axis of jihad and resistance."The announcement comes in response to Israel’s strikes on Iran Sunday, itself a response to Iranian strikes on northern Israel as retaliation for Israel’s siege on Beirut, Lebanon.While not as critical to global trade as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea is still a major shipping waterway, with around 12% of global trade passing through the channel, “including 30% of global container traffic,” according to The Guardian. Together, disruptions to both shipping waterways would likely further exacerbate supply shocks sparked by President Donald Trump’s deeply unpopular war against Iran.“The two waterways together carry an estimated 30% of global container shipping and approximately 22% of the world's seaborne oil supply, according to analysis by The Middle East Insider,” reads a report from Insurance Business Magazine. “A combined disruption places an estimated US$10 billion per day of global trade at risk.”

U.S. military disables Iranian-bound oil tanker in Gulf of Oman --The U.S. military disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Monday that it said was in violation of the U.S. Navy blockade, according to the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East.  An F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, fired a precision munition into the engineering and steering spaces of the Palau-flagged M/T Marivex, which was transiting international water toward Iran, after the vessel’s crew did not comply with the directions from U.S. personnel, according to Centcom. The oil tanker is nearly 135 meters long and 22 meters wide, according to MarineTraffic.com. The U.S. forces have continued to enforce the blockade, which went into effect in mid-April. So far, the U.S. military has disabled seven vessels that did not comply with the warnings and redirected 134 ships that have complied, according to Centcom. The U.S. military has allowed 42 ships supporting humanitarian aid to pass through since the blockade kicked off.The enforcement of the blockade comes as President Trump has urged Israel and Iran to immediately “stop shooting” on Monday after the firing resumed between the two sides, escalating tensions that threaten the U.S.-negotiated ceasefire from early April. Both Iran and Israel have signalled a halt to strikes for now.Last week, a U.S. fighter jet fired a Hellfire missile, disabling a Botswana-flagged M/T Lexie oil tanker that was heading toward an Iranian port on Kharg Island.

Israel and Iran appear to pause strikes after trading fire -  (AP) — Israel and Iran appeared to back away from further strikes Monday, hours after they traded fire for the first time since the U.S. agreed to a ceasefire with Tehran two months ago. Both countries warned that they were ready to launch retaliatory attacks if provoked. The renewed hostilities raised concerns that the Middle East could plunge back into a full-scale war. Since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on Feb. 28, the war has shaken the global economy, driven up energy prices around the world and made many basics, including food, more expensive. Officials have been unable to turn the April ceasefire into a deal to permanently end the conflict. The new attacks prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to call for an immediate stop to fighting between Israel and Iran. Soon after, the Iranian military’s joint command issued a statement that said it was halting offensive strikes. The statement said further “aggression and hostile acts” by Israel and its supporters, including in southern Lebanon, would be met with “much more severe and crushing measures than before.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking in a videotaped statement, implied that the current round of fighting was over. But he also warned that if Iran “makes the mistake and returns to attacking us, we will respond with force.”   Netanyahu said Israel is continuing to operate in Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah, and that Israel “has full right to self-defense, and we will exercise it to the full extent necessary.”  Meanwhile, the Lebanese Health Ministry said an Israeli airstrike on the village of Zefta killed seven people Monday, including a Syrian child. Eight people were wounded. Another strike on the coastal city of Tyre killed five and wounded eight, some of them members of the Lebanese Red Cross, the ministry said. Both countries lifted restrictions they had imposed as safety precautions. The Israeli military said most schools in Israel that closed Monday would reopen. Iran’s official Mizan news agency reported that the Islamic Republic had lifted airspace restrictions affecting civilian flights.During the truce, Iran has maintained its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial passage for the world’s oil and natural gas whose closure was the primary reason global fuel prices skyrocketed. Israel has continued to strike Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in Lebanon, and pushed deeper into that country. The U.S. military continues to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. U.S. Central Command said its forces on Monday fired on and disabled a Palau-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Marivex, in the Gulf of Oman after the ship attempted to breach the blockade. Officials in India said the tanker’s crew of 24 Indian sailors were all reported safe after a fire broke out on the vessel. It was the seventh commercial vessel the U.S. military has disabled to enforce its blockade, which began in mid-April.Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed concern Monday over the surge in violence. In a post on X, Sharif urged all parties to “exercise restraint and give peace a little more chance.”Two regional officials said Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Qatar had all urged the Trump administration to pressure Israel to halt strikes on Iran and Beirut.

Kuwait closes airspace, Israel warns of launches from Lebanon after U.S strikes in Iran - Kuwait closed its airspace Thursday local time due to “Iranian aggressions” as it intercepted “hostile aerial targets,” following U.S. strikes against Tehran, signaling rising tensions in the Middle East. Israel’s Home Front Command also warned of launches from Lebanon toward several communities in northern Israel.Iran “struck and destroyed eighteen important targets” belonging to U.S. forces at Kuwait’s Ali Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases, as well as the Sheikh Issa air base in Bahrain, according to the state run Tasnim news agency. Bahrain’s interior ministry earlier said that sirens had been sounded and urged civilians to head to a safe place.The escalation follows U.S. attack on multiple targets in Iran Wednesday stateside at President Donald Trump’s direction, following “Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.”  Centcom said strikes were completed at 9:04 p.m. ET Wednesday, adding it hit Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites. U.S. forces fired on Iranian targets that “posed a threat to U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters.”Iranian state media earlier reported that Iran had targeted U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz with missile and drone attacks. Later, Reuters reported that Iran’s top military command completely closed the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any vessel attempting to cross would be targeted.Trump later told Fox News that he spoke directly with Iranian officials, who he said asked him to stop the strikes. He said the bombing would stop shortly and that the Israelis were not involved in the strikes, but left the door open for further military action, according to Fox.In response to a question about whether the ceasefire was over, Trump reportedly said that it was the most violated ceasefire in history.The strikes come after Trump said earlier Wednesday that the U.S. would hit Iran “very hard” again, escalating his public threats as he pressed Tehran to sign a deal.“We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today,” Trump said at a White House signing event for the Secure America Act. “We’re going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard.”Trump said Iran “should sign the deal” and said that the U.S. wants an agreement “that’s meaningful and works.”“We’ll see what happens with the deal,” Trump said.In response Wednesday afternoon, the head of the national security commission in Iran’s parliament, Ebrahim Azizi, wrote that “this time, the war won’t be limited to the region,” in a post on X.The comments come after Trump warned on Truth Social that Iran had taken too long to negotiate and would “pay the price” amid escalating military tensions between Washington and Tehran.“Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess,” Trump wrote Wednesday morning. “Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore — They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action.”

Israel Strikes Lebanese Capital of Beirut in Latest Escalation - --20 Lebanese have been killed in the last 24 hours as Israel continues to follow its latest ceasefire deal with substantial escalation of military strikes on the country. Sunday’s strikes included multiple Israeli strikes on the suburbs of the Lebanese capital city of Beirut.  Two apartment buildings were struck in the suburb of Dahiyeh. The strikes were carried out without any advanced notice for civilians to evacuate. At least two people were killed in the attacks, and 20 others were wounded, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The wounded included at least four women and four children.Israeli officials claimed the attacks on the apartment blocks targeted “terrorist headquarters,” though it is as yet unclear if any of the casualties were actually in any way terrorists. The attacks were reportedly carried out in coordination with the United States.  President Trump is reportedly unhappy with the strikes. Since Israel invaded Lebanon in March, Israeli strikes have killed 3,613 people and wounded 11,072 others. Hundreds of those slain have been killed since the initial ceasefire was agreed upon in April, as Israel has never actually stopped attacking. The Israel invasion has been a key topic in ongoing US-Iran negotiations, with Iran insisting on an actual Lebanon ceasefire as part of the deal to end that war. Last weekend, President Trump claimed to have assurances from both Israel and Hezbollah that all shooting would stop.  In addition to Israel claiming to have coordinated today’s attacks on Beirut with the US, President Trump is now insisting that he’d like to see more strikes against Hezbollah, and that he has “ruled out” linking the Lebanon ceasefire to the Iran deal.That’s likely to greatly further complicate any deal with Iran, though President Trump has claimed such a deal was imminent for months now. Iran’s negotiator has reportedly threatened retaliation against US targets over the attacks in Lebanon, saying he believes the US “only understand the language of power.”

14 Killed, 31 Wounded in Latest Israeli Strikes Across Southern Lebanon - The ceasefire in Lebanon seems as tenuous as ever, with Israeli troops carrying out a flurry of strikes across southern Lebanon, leaving at least 14 people dead and 31 others wounded, and bringing the overall death toll since the Israeli invasion began to 3,666 killed. The largest number of casualties reported were in the city of Tyre, where 9 were killed and 28 wounded. Two were killed in a drone strike against Kfar Roummine, another was killed in an airstrike against a farm in Adchit, and a 16-year-old was reported killed in another drone strike against the town of Haboush.The IDF claimed another person, a “Hezbollah” gunman, was slain along Ramim Ridge along the border in an exchange of gunfire. The IDF initially claimed the fighter had crossed into Israeli territory during the exchange, but some Israeli media reports seem to be disputing that claim, and suggested he was still on the Lebanese side. He has not been identified. Israeli drones were also seen over parts of the capital city of Beirut, which was last attacked over the weekend. So far no new attacks on Beirut or its immediately surrounding suburbs have been reported.Indications are that the war is further escalating. In Haboush, the drones that are constantly flying overhead have taken to broadcasting the sound of children screaming for help, or the sound of ambulances in an attempt to lure people out to be targeted.Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has called for Israel to start arresting Lebanese women as a matter of policy, suggesting its time to “start thinking outside the box about them,” and that “taking them to terror prison” is what “hurts them the most.”Ben-Gvir has been advocating further escalation of the war effectively from the beginning, calling for the mass destruction of Lebanese towns and villages and for the outright annexation of broad swathes of Lebanese territory in the south.

Ben Gvir Says Israel Should Kidnap Women and Children in Lebanon - -  Israeli media reported on Tuesday that Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir suggested at a security cabinet meeting that the Israeli military should kidnap women and children in Lebanon as a way to put pressure on Hezbollah.  “Let’s start thinking outside the box about Hezbollah,” Ben Gvir said, according to The Jerusalem Post. “Also, conquering territory and killing many terrorists, but also arresting their women and youth and taking them to terrorist prisons. That’s what hurts them the most.” Ben Gvir’s mention of “terrorist prisons” refers to the Israeli prisons for Palestinians captured in Gaza and the West Bank, which are infamous for torture, including methods such as food deprivation, something Ben Gvir has previously bragged about, and widespread sexual abuse.  Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, has previously advocated for the killing of women and children. In 2024, he said that any women or children who get close to the Israeli border should get shot in the head, and last year, he reportedly said at a cabinet meeting that the IDF should shoot children who approach the “yellow line” in Gaza. The Israeli minister recently sparked a diplomatic incident by posting a video of Gaza flotilla activists being mocked and abused while in Israeli detention, leading to widespread condemnation of his actions from countries whose citizens were among the detained. In response to the video, Italian prosecutors have opened an investigation into Ben Gvir.  While often portrayed as a fringe figure, Ben Gvir has significant influence over the Israeli government, and as the minister of national security, he oversees the Israeli police and prison system. He was also seen as the main driving force behind the Israeli Knesset passing a death penalty law that only applies to Palestinians.

Lebanese City of Tyre Again Ordered Evacuated as Israel Strikes Hospital Area - - Israel has once again issued an order for all residents of the Lebanese city of Tyre to evacuate north of the Zahrani River. Since Israel destroyed all the bridges leading there months ago, such evacuations would be virtually impossible for locals.Israel followed this order up with multiple attacks on Tyre, and for the third time this month, one of the attacks was in the area around the Jabal Amel Hospital, a strike that killed four and wounded seven others, causing damage to the hospital.That wasn’t the only strike on Tyre itself, with another attack elsewhere in the city killing three people, including a man and his two university student sons, and wounding five others. That attack targeted the city’s Christian quarter. Jabal Amel hospital has been badly damaged over the past week with multiple Israeli attacks on the area leaving scores wounded, including a large number of staff members working there. Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed the attacks on the hospital were targeting “terror infrastructure.”Other Israeli attacks were reported in the Nabatieh District, hitting the towns of Zefta, Abba, and Doueir. Those strikes killed at least five people and wounded three others, and the city of Nabatieh has reported intense strikes throughout the day. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a new video declaring that the attacks on southern Lebanon would continue, and claiming that Hezbollah was “in retreat” because of the ongoing attacks on Lebanese towns and cities.

Exodus From Lebanon’s Tyre as Israel Orders Locals Out of Christian Quarter -    For the first time since they invaded Lebanon in March, the Israeli military issued an explicit evacuation warning for the Christian quarter of the ancient city of Tyre, claiming there were Hezbollah secretly hiding amongst the Christians.What followed was an attempt by the remaining Christian population to flee northward, an effort that would’ve been a lot easier if Israel hadn’t destroyed the bridge over the Litani River that is directly north of the city over a month ago. The locals are trying to reach Sidon and in some cases Beirut.Meanwhile, attacks on Tyre continued apace, killing at least 9 and wounded dozens of others. At least 15 strikes were reported against Tyre on Tuesday morning alone, with no signs that the attacks are slowing, and no signs that any of the people hit in the airstrikes are actually anything to do with Hezbollah. Christian religious leaders from Tyre were quick to call for international intervention to protect their historic neighborhood, saying the targeting of the Christian quarter would amount to a humanitarian catastrophe. Christian leaders further disputed the claim that Hezbollah was operating in the Christian neighborhood in the first place, saying it was a fabricated Israeli pretext to justify attacking that part of the city, which had previously been largely left alone. Not that Tyre in general hasn’t been a constant target of the IDF. Jabal Amel Hospital, one of Tyre’s largest, has been hit no less than three times so far this month, most recently over the weekend. The hospital has been significantly damaged by the attacks, and a large number of health care workers wounded.

Ukraine Hits Over Half A Dozen Energy & Industrial Sites Deep Inside Russia Overnight --Ukraine has hit Russia in another sweeping wave of overnight aerial attacks, especially targeting industrial facilities and energy infrastructure across multiple regions, and the extent of damage is yet to be disclosed.One of the key targets was reportedly the VNIIR-Progress plant, located in the republic of Chuvashia, which is alleged by Ukraine and the West to manufactures components for Russian drones and bombs. Other nearby infrastructure was also attacked. Ukraine has for months been making clear that it is going gloves off when it comes to attacking Russia's energy and military sites, as well as dual use military-industrial factories. Ukraine used its domestic-made Flamingo cruise missile: Ukrainian forces have carried out a missile attack deep inside Russia, hitting a major military plant overnight, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.He said FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the drone and missile plant in the city of Cheboksary, in the Chuvash Republic, more than 900km (560 miles) from the front line. Local officials say said three people were injured in a missile attack on the city.Ukraine also said it had hit the Moscow-occupied port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, a Russian oil refinery in Samara and a "shadow fleet" oil tanker in the Black Sea.  According to a review of sensitive sites struck in the fresh overnight attack wave:

• In Novokuibyshevsk in Russia’s Samara oil hub region, hosting Rosneft refineries, regional governors said authorities repelled drone attacks while urging one million residents to seek shelter. Russian OSINT channel Astra confirmed the Kuibyshevsk oil refinery was burning after at least 29 drones attacked.
• In Russia’s Rostov region bordering Ukraine, falling debris from a drone triggered a fire in a fuel tank at a civilian site. In the central Vladimir region, two industrial facilities were ablaze.
• Rare air raid alerts were issued in remote oil-producing regions Khanty-Mansiysk, Perm and Tyumen, plus industrial Ural mountain regions Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk.

Chuvashia regional governor Oleg Nikolayev blasted the strike on the aforementioned manufacturing plant as indicative of the "impotent rage of terrorists who, having no success at the front line, try to intimidate peaceful people in the rear." All of these strike waves in disparate places is likely invite even greater airstrikes on Kiev, after the capital has already been hit hard over the past several weeks.