US oil supplies the lowest since March 1984; SPR at 43½ year low; highest Autumn refinery utilization rate since 1998

Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the lowest level since it was being filled in November 1982; total of all US oil inventories, including SPR, are the lowest since March 30th, 1984; US refinery utilization rate is highest for this time of year since 1998

US oil prices managed to increase for a sixth time in seven weeks after drone damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline led to a suspension of their exports through the Red Sea…after rising 9.4% to $100.05 a barrel last week after the US “destroyed” at least eight Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iran fired advanced missiles at U.S. warships, and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities forced them to shut down, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery jumped more than $3 per barrel as the market opened in Asia on Monday following more strikes on Saudi Arabia and ships in the Persian Gulf on Sunday. and were later up more than 4% on global markets after Arab states in the Gulf called off a meeting with Iran planned for Monday, while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a new attack on Saudi Arabia, further jeopardizing global oil supplies. and similarly jumped Monday morning in New York after ​a drone strikes on Friday forced shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had been transporting 4 million bpd of crude oil to export terminals at the Red Sea, bypassing Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but pulled back ​from ​that four month high to settle $1.34 higher at $101.39 a barrel, as the market weighed the widening conflict in the Middle East against the possibility of a diplomatic resolution​, after President Trump stated that Iran wanted to reach a deal with the U.S…oil prices continued to rally early in Asian trading on Tuesday, as the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen expanded their control over the west coast of the Red Sea, while the attacks on a key Saudi onshore oil pipeline triggered concerns about additional disruptions to the already severely disrupted oil supply from the Middle East, but retreated from session highs while remaining above the prior session's close during morning trading in New York, as escalating Houthi offensive actions in Saudi Arabia continued to command a formidable geopolitical risk premium across energy markets, then bounced off their morning low to settle $4.44 higher at $105.83 per barrel on the news that oil loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu had been suspended following the shut in of its East-West Pipeline….oil prices fell on as markets opened in Asia on Wednesday after data from the American Petroleum Institute​ (API) showed that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories all unexpectedly rose last week, and continued to trade lower across global markets after Saudi Arabia began offering additional crude exports through Oman, easing some fears that Saudi exports might fall more sharply, and held those losses in early US trading even after the EIA reported US crude inventories fell a bit for a 3rd week in a row, drastically different from the 7.1​ million barrel build that the API ​had reported, then tumbled to settle $3.40 lower at $102.43 a barrel on the first Fed interest rate hike in three years​, and on reports that Saudi Arabia could restore half of its East-West pipeline capacity ​d​amaged by militia attacks within days …oil prices fell more than 1% in early Asian trading on Thursday, largely on reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude shipments through Oman, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. and were down more than 3% across global markets, as concerns over immediate supply disruptions in the Middle East eased, and continued to retreat Thursday morning in New York on easing supply concerns amid reports of Saudi Arabia establishing workarounds to the recent supply disruption from the Red Sea, but later bounced off its low and retraced its earlier losses to trade back towards its high, ahead of settling 52 cents lower at $101.91 a barrel as reports of additional Saudi crude cargoes leaving Oman’s Sohar port eased supply concerns….oil prices fell for a third consecutive day in Asia on Friday amid Saudi Arabia's efforts to resume exports after the "East-West" oil pipeline was damaged, but were mixed in early US trading as reports that the Saudi East-West pipeline could soon restart at half capacity weighed on prices​, while reports that Saudi Aramco would suspend term contracts to Europe next month dampened those bearish effects, but settled $1.61 lower at $100.30 a barrel after China, acting on a request from Saudi Arabia, asked Iran to limit attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi oil infrastructure that had threatened a second oil export route from the Middle ‌East, but still managed to eke out a 0.2% gain on the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the fifth time in six weeks on an increase in LNG demand and on forecasts for warmer than normal forecasts through early October…after falling 4.8% to $2.831 per mmBTU last week as traders shifted their focus to the Autumn “shoulder season”, when little demand for either cooling or heating w​a​s expected, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for October delivery opened 4.1 cents higher on Monday, then rebounded from an early intraday low, as cooling demand in the South and sustained LNG demand provided support, and continued rising to settle 6.5 cents higher at $2.896 per mmBTU​, as hotter weekend forecasts pushed September cooling demand to within striking distance of the all-time record, while near-record production and an approaching late month cooldown capped gains…the Octob​e​r natural gas contract opened 4.4 cents higher on Tuesday and rose to an intraday high of $2.952 ahead of 10:00 AM, as traders continued to appr​e​ciate strong cooling and LNG demand against stout storage levels and impending should-month weather, and hung on to settle 2.3 cents higher at $2.919 per mmBTU as record-challenging heat across the South propped up demand, even as softer LNG feedgas and a bearish shift in forecasts beyond the weekend kept the rally in check….natural gas prices opened 4.0 cents higher on Wednesday and hit an intraday high of $2.968 within minutes of the opening bell, then backed off as bearish shoulder season sentiment proved to be dominant, and settled 2.8 cents lower at $2.891 per mmBTU as fading shoulder season demand weighed on the nearby contracts despite a final burst of late-summer heat….the October contract opened slightly lower on Thursday, but quickly rose to trade near $2.940 ahead of the weekly storage report, and peaked at an intraday high of $2.959 as the bullish-leaning storage report hit the wire, but then faded to settle 1.0 cent higher at $2.901 per mmBTU after a smaller-than-expected government storage injection reinforced signs that the US inventory cushion is tightening....natural gas futures reversed sharply higher early Friday, erasing a slide driven by cooler late-September forecasts. as LNG feedgas demand rebounded on Cameron LNG’s return, but became rangebound at midday as ebbing weather demand countered LNG momentum​, before settling 1.1 cents higher at $2.912 per mmBTU, as bullish forecasts for more demand next week and an increase in daily flows to LNG export plants offset a bearish increase in output and ample amounts of gas in storage, and thus finished 2.9% higher for the week..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending September 11th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 44 billion cubic feet to 3,298 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 122 billion cubic feet, or 3.6% below the 3,420 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on September 11th of last year, but 118 billion cubic feet, or 3.7% above the five-year average of 3,180 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 11th of September over the most recent five years….the 44 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was a little less than the 47 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, ​a​nd it was much less than the 87 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 74 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the first week in September over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 11th showed that even after an increase in our oil imports and decrease in our oil refining, a big jump in our oil exports meant we still had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the twentieth time in twenty-one weeks, and for the 42nd time in sixty-eight weeks, despite an increase in the domestic supply of oil the EIA could not account for…. Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 234,000 barrels per day to 7,058,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 53,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,414,000 barrels per day to average 4,831,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,227,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 11th, an average of 1,180,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 454,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 433,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 3,000 barrels per day lower at 13,944,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,604,000 barrels per day during the September 11th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 17,330,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 11th, an average of 256,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a total of 149,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled from the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending September 11th averaged a rounded 577,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +577,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Moreover, since 888,000 barrels per day of demand for could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,465,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and therefore are complete nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 149,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 91,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercial stocks of crude oil, while 58,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the twenty-fifth consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR, but the smallest yet, which left the SPR level at 284,957,000 barrels, the lowest since it was initially being filled in November 1982....with both commercial oil and the SPR both down again this week, that left the Total of all US Oil Supplies at 708,386,000 barrels, down 18.6% from 870,774,000 barrels on April 17th, and the lowest since March 30th, 1984….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,703,000 barrels per day last week, which was 7.5% more than the 6,235,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports rose to 4,131,000 barrels per day last week, which was 5.1% more than the 3,929,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 3,000 barrels per day lower at 13,944,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 9000 barrels per day lower at 13,481,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 6,000 barrels per day higher at 463,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 6.4% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 43.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 96.8% of their capacity while processing those 17,330,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 11th, down from 97.8% the prior week, but still the highest September refinery utilization rate since 1998….the 17,330,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 5.5% more than the 16,424,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending September 12th of 2025, and 3.7% more than the 16,707,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending September 13th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 91.2%, which was a bit below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat higher, increasing by 336,000 barrels per day to 9,644,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 11th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 587,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 2.5% more than the​ 9​,407,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending September 12th of last year, and 2.0% more than the gasoline production of 9,451,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending September 13th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 121,000 barrels per day to 5,227,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 222,000 barrels per day during the prior week.  Even after that production decrease, our distillates output was 5.5% more than the 4,955,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 12th of 2025, and 2.3% more than the 5,109,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending September 13th, 2019....

With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the seventh time in thirty-one weeks, increasing by 794,000 barrels to 207,732,000 barrels during the week ending September 11th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,269,000 barrels to a 42 week low during the prior week.  Our gasoline supplies rose by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 247,000 barrels per day to 8,798,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 83,000 barrels per day to 955,000 barrels per day while our imports of gasoline rose by 73,000 barrels per day to 537,000 barrels per day,… But after fifty-four gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.6% lower than last September 12th’s gasoline inventories of 217,650,000 barrels, and about 5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates rose for the eighteenth time in thirty-one weeks, increasing by 1,585,000 barrels to 107,859,000 barrels during the week ending September 11th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 2,087,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies rose again this week as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 177,000 barrels per day to 3,501,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose 58,000 barrels per day to 1,614,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 71,000 barrels per day to 114,000 barrels per day... After 28 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 61 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 13.5% lower than the  124,684,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 12th of 2025, and were about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the jump in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 15th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 26th time over the past year, decreasing by 640,000 barrels over the week, from 424,069,000 barrels on September 4th to 423,429,000 barrels on September 11th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 391,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 1% above recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still about 28% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s decrease was the third consecutive after four increases, and as of September 11th our commercial crude inventories were 1.9% above the 415,361,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 12th of 2025, and were 1.4% more than the 417,513,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 13th of 2024, and 1.1% more than the 418,456,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on September 15th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count increased by four over the week ending September 18th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by two, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by two, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 18th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (September 11th) and this week’s (September 18th) count, the third column shows last week’s September 11th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 19th of September, 2025…

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Nearly 3,000 acres of Ohio's only national forest auctioned off for oil and gas development  -- The U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management has leased nearly 3,000 acres of the Wayne National Forest to oil and gas companies. Critics warn the move could be damaging to the region, but industry officials say the project is needed to help the nation meet its energy needs. The Bureau announced its plans to lease the land in July. Following a mandatory protest period, 40 parcels within the Wayne National Forest were sold in an online auction on Tuesday. The sales totaled over $11 million.The highest bid was nearly $10,000 per acre on a parcel in Monroe County.Nathan Johnson, attorney of land and water for the Ohio Environmental Council, said the scale of the projects could radically change the area.“We are talking about pipelines. We are talking well pads,” Johnson said. “We're talking [about a] huge increase in truck traffic. We're talking about major increases in air pollution as well.”This isn’t the first time the Wayne National Forest has seen industrial changes. In the 19th and 20th centuries, the logging, mining and farming industries all cleared large swaths of forest land in the region.Ecologist Glen Matlack with Ohio University says the area still hasn’t fully recovered.“It takes a while to accumulate a whole forest community, to put together the entire forest. A forest is not just the trees that grow in the forest,” Matlack said.Matlack has found small patches of forest herbs growing in the national forest. The native plants grow underneath established tree canopies and are a nutrient resource for wildlife. Matlack says the infrequency of the herbs is indicative of past deforestation.“You can still recognize the history of disturbance in a forest patch here by the poverty of forest species in it,” Matlack said.The Wayne National Forest is home to several endangered species like the Indiana Bat. Because they’re protected, federal agencies can’t take actions that would put them at further risk.Mike Chadsey, director of external affairs for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, says oil and gas companies generally prefer to work with private landowners who have already clear cut their fields, instead of taking down trees in the national forest. That way they don’t have to worry about violating federal laws that protect endangered species.“The vast majority of these well pad locations, they are going to be on private property,” he said. “When you try to take down trees you can only have a small window to do that because of Indiana bats and various other species that reside in those trees.”Some private properties in Monroe and Washington Counties are surrounded by national forest land. Chadsey says opening up the forest for oil and gas development allows those landowners to lease their mineral rights, many for the first time.Chadsey says some forest land will likely still need to be cleared for pipelines — and there’s no guarantee the oil and gas companies won’t place well pads in the Wayne — but he says the impact should be minimal.“We have to be mindful of truck traffic, we have to be mindful of pipelines. So here's all the things that are involved. We are aware of them. We don't think that's a negative impact to the forest,” Chadsey said.Overall, he thinks the development will be positive for the entire state, as thousands of products can be made from crude oil and gas.“To be able to use that as a feedstock for manufacturing is huge for Ohio and West Virginia, because these are states that make things,” Chadsey said.The Ohio Environmental Council doesn’t think oil and gas drilling is worth the risk to the land.“That's a huge chunk of public land for context. I mean, that's larger than Cuyahoga Valley National Park,” Ohio Environmental Council Attorney Nathan Johnson said. “It is larger than the largest state park in Ohio. It's more than 30,000 football fields.”The Ohio Environmental Council filed a lawsuit claiming the Bureau of Land Management is violating several environmental laws by leasing federal forest land, and filed an official protest ahead of the auction.Johnson said the Council is likely to file another suit now that the auction has taken place. The Council also argues the Bureau’s environmental studies neglected to fully consider the wells’ impact on air quality.Ecologist Glen Matlock says opening up the area is especially concerning considering trees are natural air filters. They also naturally produce moisture, which cools the air.In a press release, the Bureau of Land Management stated this week’s auction is only the first step of the process. Companies leasing the land still have to submit a drilling permit application, which the Bureau has to approve.Ohio isn’t the only state where federal land is up for lease. The Bureau of Land Management is also putting National Forest land in New Mexico up for bid, along with land in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and several other states.

Fracking industry pays $11 million for first leases in Ohio’s only national forest - Signal Ohio –    A handful of out-of-state oil and gas companies paid $11 million to the federal government as a lease payment to allow them to frack for natural gas in the Wayne National Forest, the only national forest in Ohio. Drillers from Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Texas all won bids for some of the 41 plots that were sold Tuesday, the culmination of about a decade of work from three presidents to expand oil and gas exploration in the forest and litigation from environmentalists trying to block it. The sale spans nearly 2,800 acres of forestland. Both the signing bonuses and royalty payments will be split between the federal government and the state. As the U.S. Bureau of Land Management said Wednesday announcing the sales of leases all over the country, legislation championed by President Donald Trump lowered the legal minimum of those royalty payments from 16.67% to 12.5%. That makes the leases that much more favorable to the industry than the public, the ostensible landowner. “[This] reduces the cost of doing business on public lands, making oil and gas development more economically attractive to industry,” the agency said in a statement. “This is expected to spur additional leasing and drilling activity, which in turn supports increased domestic energy production and strengthens U.S. energy security.” Finalizing leasing in the Wayne has been part of the Trump administration’s aggressive pursuit of opening new public lands to the oil and gas industry while easing some of the rules around bond requirements, public comments and timelines around the lease sales. Environmentalists typically oppose lease sales of public lands to oil and gas companies for two reasons. For one, the drilling and extraction itself can harm plants and wildlife in the protected areas – the Center for Biological Diversity raised this issue for years in court to stall the lease sale. They also say they make governments financially dependent on fossil fuels, complicating the transition to a renewable-energy-dependent grid. More than 3,650 people filed letters of protest with the federal government over the sale. Wendy Park, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, said in an interview that while further legal action remains on the table, it would be a steep ask for a judge to intervene in some way so late in the process. She said it’s “outrageous” that the federal government would allow a few corporations to prosper at the expense of Ohio’s air, water and local endangered species in the forest. “Thousands of Ohioans spoke out,” she said. “Unfortunately, the federal government blew them off.” Nathan Johnson, an attorney with the Ohio Environmental Council, said the organization plans to challenge the lease deals in federal court. “Yesterday’s lease sale violates important environmental laws meant to protect endangered wildlife and the quality of the environment,” Johnson said in a statement. Drilling for oil and natural gas in Wayne goes back to the mid-20th century. However, the new leases call for “unconventional” drilling, more commonly referred to as fracking. This entails operators drilling thousands of feet downward – much deeper than “conventional” wells – before turning 90 degrees and reaching laterally. Then a mixture of water, sand and chemicals is injected at high pressure to force the gas out at the surface. Operators are left to dispose of the millions of gallons of liquid waste. While the lease sales are final, the companies still must obtain permits from the U.S. BLM before they can begin drilling. Wayne is unique in that it’s not one contiguous plot of land but more like three separate swaths around southeast Ohio. The leases for sale sit near Marietta, Ohio, and Parkersburg, West Virginia. The federal action mirrors that of the state government. Republicans at the General Assembly and governor’s office over the past few years built a legal apparatus allowing the state to lease out 22,000 acres of its state parks and wildlife reserves to out-of-state oil and gas companies. The new leasees are Gulfport Appalachia, of Oklahoma, Apex Energy, of Pennsylvania, Magnum Producing, of Texas, Texas Independent Exploration, and OhioGasCo, of Pennsylvania.

Apex Energy Grabs 25 of 40 Parcels in OH Wayne Nat’l Forest Sale -- Marcellus Drilling News - -It’s a sellout, and we now have the full scorecard. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) auctioned drilling rights to 40 parcels of federal minerals under Ohio’s Wayne National Forest (WNF), and every parcel found a buyer. The 2,776.84 acres in Monroe and Washington counties brought $11,097,693 in total receipts. Five companies won leases, and one of them, Apex Energy Operating III LLC, walked off with nearly two-thirds of the acreage. We have BLM’s full parcel-by-parcel results, embedded below. It’s the first federal lease sale in the WNF since March 2017.

Ohio gas pipeline safety penalties among lowest in nation, audit finds - — Ohio’s civil penalties for gas pipeline safety violations are among the lowest in the nation, according to a state performance audit of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.The state could lose regulatory autonomy over gas pipeline safety if the Ohio General Assembly fails to increase the penalties soon, Ohio Auditor Keith Faber’s office said. Under Ohio law, PUCO can impose a maximum penalty of $100,000 for each day of each violation of noncompliance — up to a maximum aggregate forfeiture of $1 million for any related series of violations. Those are currently the minimum amounts required by federal law. State lawmakers haven’t updated the daily maximum violation amount since 2012, and they haven’t revised the aggregate maximum forfeiture amount since 2005. The current federal maximum civil penalty for pipeline safety violations is $272,926 for each violation for each day the violation continues. The federal maximum penalty for a related series of violations is $2,729,245. The U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration regularly revises the penalties based on the consumer price index, and the federal daily and maximum penalty amounts have increased every year since the law was enacted in 2015. Auditors were able to find information on gas pipeline safety violation penalties for 40 states, and 24 of them had amounts lower than the federal maximum. However, most of those states have amounts that are above the federal minimum — the average being $1.6 million for the maximum aggregate penalty.Fifteen states have the same maximum amounts as the federal government, while Massachusetts has an aggregate maximum forfeiture amount of $10 million.Mr. Faber’s office suggested the following options to the state legislature:

• Ensure that Ohio’s pipeline safety maximum forfeiture amounts automatically update in accordance with federal regulations.
• Increase the maximum forfeiture amounts to at least the peer state average.
• Have the fines tied to an inflationary measure, such as the consumer price index.

PUCO Chairman Jenifer French said these penalty amounts have been an area of increasing concern in recent years.“Your team did an excellent job of examining how Ohio compares with its peers and analyzing the potential impact on federal funding,” Ms. French said.“This funding supports the important work of our Facility and Operations Field Division in inspecting natural gas pipelines and ensuring compliance with federal safety regulations,” she continued. “We support further study of the issue and the consideration of an increase of these maximums.”State Sen. Paula Hicks-Hudson (D., Toledo) said she wasn’t surprised that Ohio’s penalties are among the lowest in the nation.“I’ve always thought that Ohio has been very lenient to the utility companies,” Ms. Hicks-Hudson said. “I do think it’s a wakeup call for us to be a little bit more proactive.” Ms. Hicks-Hudson said she initially thought that automatically updating Ohio’s amounts in accordance with federal regulations was the best route, but she wants to study the issue further.“I do think that we need to do something to make sure that we don’t put ourselves in a worse predicament,” she said. Mike Chadsey, spokesman for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, said the organization is reviewing the audit.“Safety remains our industry’s first priority,” Mr. Chadsey said.“It is important to note that Ohio's PUCO remains in compliance with federal pipeline safety requirements,” he continued. “We will continue working with regulators to ensure Ohio’s pipeline safety program remains strong and effective.”

DeepRock Appeals; Must Fix 2 Noble Co. Wells by Nov 28 or Plug -- Marcellus Drilling News - DeepRock Disposal Solutions wants two of its Noble County, Ohio, injection wells back in service — and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) keeps saying no. ODNR’s Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management shut the Travis and Warren wells in January 2023, blaming them for a 2021 brine eruption that cost the state $1.28 million to clean up. DeepRock argued its case at a hearing in April. It lost. The division chief issued a fresh order on July 31 continuing the suspension, and on Aug. 28 DeepRock appealed to the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission. Here’s the part our readers should circle on the calendar: under Ohio Administrative Code, DeepRock has 120 days from that July 31 order — until roughly Nov. 28 (our count) — to submit a plan fixing what the division found, or plug both wells permanently.

Ohio Utica 2Q26: EOG Pumps 67% of State Oil, Ascent 41% of Gas -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) recently released second-quarter 2026 production numbers. The state’s top natural gas producer was Ascent Resources, with 220,554,117 Mcf (220.55 Bcf) produced during the quarter, averaging 2.42 Bcf/d. Ascent’s production accounted for 41% of the state’s natural gas production. The top oil producer in the state, by far, was EOG Resources, which reports under two names: EOG Ohio LLC (the old Encino Energy assets EOG bought last year) and EOG Resources Inc. Together, they produced 8,846,396 barrels of oil during the quarter, which works out to an average of 97,213 barrels per day. That’s 67% (two-thirds!) of Ohio’s entire oil production during 2Q26.

EOG's 39 New Utica Wells Take it to 100000 bbl/d in Ohio - Hart Energy -  EOG Resources has put 39 new Ohio Utica wells online where the multi-basin E&P’s U.S. oil output is expected to grow amid hefty, but flat, Delaware Basin volumes. EOG Resources' new Utica growth is expected to offset flat output from the Delaware Basin.

ORVI Says Ohio Shale Is Shrinking. The Data Says Otherwise. - Marcellus Drilling News - -The Ohio River Valley Institute (ORVI), the radical anti-fossil fuel outfit that wants to shut down Appalachian shale, is at it again. Today ORVI senior researcher Sean O’Leary published an op-ed in the Ohio Capital Journal claiming that shale’s importance to Ohio’s economy is “small and shrinking.” He lists seven “facts.” We checked every one of them against the same government data he cites. Some are technically true but badly misleading. At least one is flat wrong — by a factor of a million. Here’s what the data actually says.

16 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Sep 7 – 13 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received 16 new drilling permits last week, September 7 – 13, down from the 28 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 13 of the new permits. Ohio issued 3 new permits. And West Virginia issued no new permits. The drillers who received new permits last week were: CNX Resources, EOG Resources, EQT, Infinity Natural Resources, and Range Resources. Allegheny County | CNX Resources | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Indiana County | INR/Infinity Natural Resources | Noble County | Range Resources Corp | Washington County | Westmoreland County

Precision Drilling Renews Buyback, Touts #2 Marcellus Rig Ranking -- Marcellus Drilling News - - Precision Drilling, the Calgary-based rig contractor that says it’s the #2 drilling company-for-hire in the Marcellus, announced on Sept. 16 that it will keep buying back its own stock for another year. Yawn, right? Stick with us. The buyback is the boring part. The interesting part is the investor presentation Precision put out this month, which lays out why the company thinks gas drilling for LNG exports will keep its rigs busy for years, and why the price of renting a rig is heading up.

Appalachia Nearly Matches Texas: 28% of US Gas from PA/WV/OH - Marcellus Drilling News --Texas is still the undisputed king of American natural gas — but Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio together produced almost as much gas in 2025 as Texas did all by itself. New EIA data confirms Appalachia is America’s second major shale gas hub, and it’s not particularly close behind. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s annual gross withdrawals table shows the country produced 47.73 Tcf of natural gas in 2025 (gross withdrawals — the total wellhead volume before processing, as distinct from marketed or dry gas figures). Texas alone accounted for 13,603 Bcf, or 28.5% of the U.S. total — nearly double Pennsylvania’s 7,676 Bcf (16.1%).

Expand Energy and Twin Eagle Transaction Closes - Expand Energy has closed its transaction with Twin Eagle, bringing together North America’s largest natural gas producer and leading gas marketer to create North America’s leading integrated natural gas company.“Today we officially merge Expand Energy’s unmatched scale, resource depth and financial strength with Twin Eagle’s marketing and optimization platform to build an advantaged commercial platform. We’re not just capturing additional margin across the natural gas value chain, we’re cementing our position as the leading integrated natural gas company in North America,” said Michael Wichterich, Expand Energy’s Interim President and Chief Executive Officer.Twin Eagle will operate as a wholly owned subsidiary of Expand Energy, retaining its name and brand. Jeremy Davis will lead the combined Marketing organization as President of Marketing.With the transaction complete, the organizations will focus on working together to drive value by:
  - Accelerating Expand Energy’s strategy by delivering incremental free cash flow.
  - Expanding customer and market reach to capture greater value from every molecule.
  - Leveraging scale and financial strength by extending contract terms, attracting additional high-quality customers and reaching high-value markets.
  - Adding an experienced team with a highly successful track record.
Together, Expand Energy’s combined portfolio now markets approximately 14 Bcf/d of natural gas, backed by roughly 9 Bcf/d of firm transportation and 49 Bcf of storage capacity — serving more than 1,000 customers across the U.S. and Canada. (NB: Expand Energy was formed by the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy)

Project Bulletin, September 14, 2026: Fayette County, Pennsylvania -Upon acquiring about 700 acres of former coal mines and refuse sites from up to six Pennsylvania landowners, spanning both Luzerne and German townships, NextEra Energy Resources will now pursue development of a natural gas power plant campus. The $13 billion East Riverside Energy Center plans to leverage natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to supply its three upcoming plants, which will carry a combined 3.75-gigawatt capacity. Funding for the project comes as a result of the Trump Administration’s March 2026 trade deal with Japan to support national large-scale power infrastructure development. While the U.S. and Japan governments will fund the project via a special-purpose vehicle, NextEra will develop and operate the complex. The facilities will be built out in phases with the first to open in 2030 and campus completion to be reached in 2032. Up to 2,000 construction roles will be created. Electricity produced by the company will be sent to the PJM Interconnection regional grid through existing transmission lines, in addition to serving data center and industrial customers.

DEP: Wind Tipped Over Conventional Crude Oil Tank, Spill Travels Nearly 1,000 Feet Down Access Road, Seeps Into A Stream On State Game Lands In Knox Twp., Jefferson County - On September 8, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the State Game Lands 244 26 conventional oil well owned by Diversified Production LLC in Knox Township, Jefferson County after notification of a crude oil spill. The owner said crude oil from a tank the wind tipped over during a recent storm caused a release of crude oil that traveled nearly 1,000 feet down an access road to a low spot where it left the road and seeped into a stream. Blobs of oily material were found nearly 180 feet down stream. Before the inspector arrived the tank had been removed, absorbent booms were placed in the stream and across the road to catch any remaining oil seeping into the stream. DEP said the tank was removed from the site of a plugged well and left along the access road. A visual cleanup of oil and oil contaminated soil was completed where the tank tipped and released the oil and piled and covered on the site until it could be tested. A representative of the tank owner said about 20 gallons of crude oil had been released, traveled nearly 1,000 feet down a road, went into a stream and traveled nearly 180 more feet in the stream. Multiple violations were issued and a written response requested by September 20. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.  To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

DEP: Routine Inspection Finds Contaminated Water From GASP Investment Conventional Oil & Gas Well Leaking From Tank In Bell Twp., Jefferson County  On September 11, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a routine inspection of the GASP Investment LLC  Samuel J. Ishman 2 conventional oil and gas well in Bell Township, Jefferson County and found contaminated water had leaked from a storage tank.The release had killed vegetation in the area of the release which DEP estimated to be less than 42 gallons..  DEP said the tank appeared to be disconnected from the well. DEP said a visual clean up “is sufficient for this site” due to the release being less than an estimated 42 gallons.  [More than 42 gallons would have triggered more extensive cleanup procedures.] Multiple violations issued, but not a failure to report a spill, and a response requested by September 28. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 29: Cleanup Of 336,000 Gallon Spill Of Fracking Flowback Fluid From An Uncontrolled Shale Gas Well Continues At INR OPR LLC Pad In Young Twp., Indiana County  - On September 9 and 15, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did follow-up inspections of the areas at the INR OPR LLC Cooper shale gas well pad impacted by the release of 336,000 gallons of fracking flowback fluid from an uncontrolled well in Young Township, Indiana County.  Removal of contaminated materials on the well pad is mostly complete and contaminated soil is still being removed from the south and west berms of the pad.Trees were removed from the first tree line downslope from the pad and the INR cleanup contractor has installed a filter sock to control sedimentation from the excavation area along the second tree line.The consultant was onsite collecting soil samples to determine if any other areas need to be remediated and which area were clean. INR asked for and received a two week extension to respond to the original violations issued for this incident to September 25.DEP continued all the violations originally issued and noted the agency has not received an updated Spill Response and Pollution Prevention and Control Plan for the site it had requested on April 15, 2026. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.September 15:  DEP reported remediation of the well pad is complete, but contaminated soil is still being removed in the fields west of the pad. Excavation should wrap up shortly and the owner’s consultant was again onsite collecting soil samples. Click Here for the September 15 DEP inspection report + photos. An August 17, 2026 inspection report posted by the Department of Environmental Protection documents how “copious quantities” of fracking water came “gushing” from an uncontrolled shale gas well at the INR OPR LLC Cooper well pad in Young Township, Indiana County contaminating a large area and polluting nearby Whiskey Run.  Read more here.On August 31, 2026 DEP reported an estimated 336,000 gallons of fracking flowback water was released during the incident and an undetermined amount went into Whiskey Run.  Read more here.The incident resulted in a major response from firefighters in Indiana, Armstrong, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties to support a specialized gas well response crew that worked to bring the well under control.  Read more here.

Susquehanna River Basin Commission Approves 2 Shale Gas Development Water Withdrawal Requests; Total Of 3 In 2026 On September 16, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission held its regular business meeting and, among other actions, approved two shale gas development water withdrawal requests.The requests include--

• -- EQT ARO, LLC (Loyalsock Creek), Hillsgrove Township, Sullivan County, PA. Application for surface water withdrawal of up to 1.700 mgd (peak day).  Read more here.
• -- Expand Operating, LLC (Susquehanna River), Ulster Township, Bradford County, PA. Application for surface water withdrawal of up to 4.000 mgd (peak day).  Read more here.

The Commission approved three shale gas-related water withdrawals and a total of 223 well pad water use general permits so far in 2026. More Information available on pending and issued water withdrawals is available on SRBC’s Water Application and Approval Viewer webpage.

DEP: Contaminated Water, Cement Spill, No Secondary Containment Or Sedimentation Controls At Conventional Well Plugging Site In Indiana County - On September 18, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection was notified of a September 17 spill of contaminated water and cement during plugging operations at the Greylock Conventional LLC Stella Temchulla 1 conventional well in Canoe Township, Indiana County.DEP’s inspection report said cement and contaminated water returned to the surface through an 8 inch hole in the well casing and was released onto the well pad and a small amount flowed into an adjacent wooded area.L&J Oilfield Services, the plugging contractor, did not notify Greylock of the spill.  The spill was estimated to be less than 42 gallons and DEP said a “visual cleanup is appropriate for this site.” A spill reported as larger than 42 gallons could have triggered Act 2 Land Recycling Program cleanup procedures.In addition, there was no secondary containment in place around the well plugging operation and no erosion and sedimentation controls around the perimeter of the well site.Multiple violations were issued and DEP requested a response by October 5.  Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.  To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

National Fuel Gas explores options for $5 billion natural gas production business, sources say -U.S. energy firm National Fuel Gas is exploring strategic options for its integrated natural gas production business, with any deal set to value the unit at around $5 billion, five people familiar with the matter said. The Williamsville, New York-based company, which traces its roots back to 1902 as a carve-out from John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, is working with advisers including investment bankers at Goldman Sachs to study a wide range of scenarios for the business, which consists of natural gas-focused producer Seneca Resources and pipeline operator National Fuel Gas Midstream Company.Among the options being considered are a full or partial sale, a merger with another publicly listed U.S. producer, or its spinoff into a separate publicly listed company, said the sources.The sources cautioned that no transaction of any kind involving the natural gas production unit could ultimately materialize, and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.National Fuel, which has a market capitalization of around $7.6 billion, declined to comment, as did Goldman Sachs.A divestment would grant National Fuel focus and cash to grow its utility business, at a time when power demand across the United States is soaring due to the boom in infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence build-out and wider industrial electrification efforts. The utility operations are also regulated, meaning their earnings are more stable and predictable to investors than natural gas production, which is governed by market prices for the commodity. The move to explore options was also, in part, catalyzed by an inbound expression of interest in the natural gas production business earlier this year, three of the sources added, declining to disclose the bidder’s identity and the extent of the sale conversations.Seneca Resources is a Houston-based exploration and production company focused on natural gas, with operations across the Marcellus and Utica shale formations in Appalachia. It produces around 1.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, according to National Fuel’s July earnings presentation. Energy infrastructure operator National Fuel Gas Midstream Company supports Seneca by transporting gas from well sites to larger pipelines that carry it to end consumers. Seneca and the associated infrastructure constitute a considerable amount of National Fuel’s earnings — around 69% of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), per the July presentation — meaning any divestment would have to be weighed carefully to ensure it does not undermine National Fuel’s remaining business, the sources said.National Fuel management has previously highlighted how cash generated by its natural gas production unit provides capital to support organic growth projects and to pay down debt faster.However, releasing cash from Seneca would allow National Fuel to fast-track an expansion of its utility business, both in terms of providing resources to pursue growth including deals but also to recalibrate its valuation multiple to that of a regulated energy business.National Fuel currently trades around 11.2 times its earnings, while many pure-play natural gas utilities trade at more than 16 times, according to data provider LSEG. This is because natural gas producers trade at a lower multiple — the top four U.S. shale gas names trade between 8 times and 12.4 times earnings, per LSEG data — which weighs on companies such as National Fuel which have both businesses.National Fuel provides natural gas utility services to around 756,000 consumers in New York and Pennsylvania, according to the July presentation. It is working to close a $2.62 billion purchase of CenterPoint Energy’s Ohio natural gas utility business, which will add a further 335,000 customers. The deal, National Fuel’s largest-ever acquisition, is slated to close on October 1.

National Fuel board to complete review of plan to split company by October 15  (Reuters) - National Fuel Gas Company said on Thursday its board expects to complete by October 15 its review of plans to split into two ‌publicly traded companies - utility and pipeline, and Appalachian upstream and gathering natural gas business. On Wednesday, Reuters reported the US energy company was weighing strategic options for its integrated natural gas business in a deal ⁠that could value the unit at roughly $5 billion, citing five people familiar with the matter.Here are some details:

• The separation comes as growing US power demand from AI data centers and electrification fuels investment in energy infrastructure, while rising natural gas demand accelerates the need for additional pipeline and storage capacity.
• The review follows the Williamsville, New ‌York-based ⁠company's pending acquisition of an Ohio gas utility next month.
• The proposed separation would leave National Fuel as a fully regulated natural gas company serving about 1.1 million customers in Ohio, ⁠New York and Pennsylvania, with nearly $5 billion in rate base.
• The Integrated Upstream and Gathering (IUG) business would become a standalone producer and ⁠midstream operator focused on the Marcellus and Utica shale regions.
• The IUG business would have about 1.2 million ⁠net acres in Appalachia, with net natural gas production of about 1.1 billion cubic feet per day.

SC Landowners Take Canadys Gas Plant Fight to State Supreme Court -- Marcellus Drilling News - We told you back in July that the two landowners fighting the 2,180-megawatt (MW) Canadys Station gas-fired power plant in South Carolina’s Lowcountry were teeing up an appeal straight to the state Supreme Court (see SC PSC Won’t Reconsider Its Approval of Edisto River Gas-Fired Plant). On September 1, they did exactly that. John M. Burbage and Lauren V. Moody Stanfill filed a notice of appeal with the Supreme Court of South Carolina, asking the justices to undo the Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of the roughly $5 billion project — a 50/50 joint venture between Dominion Energy South Carolina and state-owned Santee Cooper.

Gas Processing Frac Spread Soars to 2.5 Year High | RBN Energy - The frac spread — a rough gauge of the value of extracting NGLs from raw gas — hit $6.15/MMbtu last week, its highest level since February 2024. Weak natural gas prices combined with strong NGL prices yielded the wide price differential.  The frac spread is simply the differential between the price of natural gas at Henry Hub and the weighted average price of a typical basket of Mont Belvieu NGLs on a dollars-per-MMBtu basis. The spread is up 165% since January 2026, with natural gas down 20% over the same period while NGLs are up 50%.  As shown in the left graph below, the average annual Frac Spread has ranged between a low of $2.38/MMbtu in 2020 to a high of $5.30/MMBtu in 2021. Since 2017, it has averaged just over $4.00/MMbtu. The Frac Spread will likely stay strong as long as natural gas prices remain low and crude prices (which influence most NGL prices) remain at elevated levels.

U.S. and Gulf Coast Propane Inventories Reach Record Highs The EIA reported that total U.S. propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.1 MMbbl for the week ended September 4, exceeding the industry-expected build of 920 Mbbl and the average build of 1.9 MMbbl for the week. The increase lifted stocks to an all-time high of 110.5 MMbbl (red line in the chart below). Stocks are 12.8 MMbbl, or 13%, above the same week in 2025 (blue line); 11.4 MMbbl, or 11.5%, above the five-year maximum; and 22.2 MMbbl, or 25%, above the five-year average (green line). Inventories remain on track to approach 119 MMbbl by early October before seasonal draws begin. That would be approximately 13% above the 2025 high of 105.4 MMbbl recorded in November 2025.The increase in total U.S. inventories was driven primarily by PADD 3 (Gulf Coast), which added 2 MMbbl and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the nationwide build. The increase lifted regional stocks to an all-time high of 70.2 MMbbl (red line in the chart below). Inventories were 12 MMbbl, or 21%, above both the same week in 2025 (blue line) and the previous five-year maximum and 20.2 MMbbl, or 40%, above the five-year average (green line). Combined with the 657-Mbbl increase in PADD 1 (East Coast), the two regions accounted for approximately 86% of the nationwide build. PADD 3 now holds nearly 64% of total U.S. stocks, highlighting the concentration of inventories along the Gulf Coast.

Counterseasonal Draw Begins to Erode U.S. Propane Inventory Surplus -- The EIA reported a 1.4-MMbbl decrease in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended September 11, compared with an industry-expected build of 650 Mbbl and an average build of 1.0 MMbbl for the week. The counterseasonal draw—the largest for the comparable week in our records dating back to 2011—lowered stocks to 109.1 MMbbl (red line in the chart below). Despite the decline, inventories are 10.2 MMbbl, or 10%, above the same week in 2025; 8.4 MMbbl, or 8%, above the five-year maximum; and 18.9 MMbbl, or 21%, above the five-year average. The draw was broad-based, led by a 781-Mbbl decline in PADD 1 (East Coast). Inventories in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 2 (Midwest) decreased by 570 Mbbl and 303 Mbbl, respectively, while a 277-Mbbl build in PADDs 4 and 5 provided a partial offset. As shown by the red bars in the chart below, inventories remain concentrated in PADD 3, where stocks are well above both the same week in 2025 and the five-year average. Although total stocks remain historically high, the counterseasonal draw reduced the additional inventory accumulated ahead of the winter heating season. Continued draws or below-normal builds over the next several weeks would narrow the current surplus and leave the market more exposed to strong winter demand.

Tetco M-2 Sinks to $1.435, Below EQT’s $1.50 Shut-In Trigger  - Marcellus Drilling News - -  The fall “turn down the valves” season for Marcellus/Utica gas has arrived, and it showed up about a week early. Last Friday (Sept. 11), the spot price at Texas Eastern M-2 (aka Tetco M-2), the key pricing point for gas produced in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, averaged $1.435 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas). That’s 6.5 cents below the $1.50 mark that EQT, the region’s biggest driller, has flagged as its trigger for curtailing (temporarily cutting back) production. So, are shut-ins coming? History says probably, at least for a while.

Venture Global Secures China Gas SPA as Plaquemines, CP2 Expansions Advance -Venture Global said Monday it reached a sales and purchase agreement (SPA) to supply 0.5 Mt/y of LNG to offtaker China Gas for 20 years starting in 2030, the latest in a string of positive developments for Venture Global and its Gulf Coast project portfolio. At a Glance:

• Offtake with China Gas reaches 2.5 Mt/y
• FERC approves Gator Express uprating
• Baker Hughes to support Plaquemines expansion

U.S. LNG Returns to China, But This Time the Game Is Different | RBN Energy - The nice thing about LNG trading is that cargoes do not get offended, pack their bags and disappear if they are not immediately needed in one port; they can be simply redirected to another. The trade tensions between the U.S. and China have created exactly this kind of rerouting story in the LNG market. As tariffs, trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions reshaped flows between the two countries, sellers were pushed to find new buyers, buyers had to find new suppliers, and traders had to find new routes. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how this shift has reshaped U.S.-China LNG trade and whether the new trading pattern is likely to stick around. Direct LNG trade between the U.S. and China had been dormant since February 2025, but just when it looked like things would remain quiet, a cargo from the U.S. reached China again. The QatarEnergy-operated LNG carrier Al Fat’h arrived at PipeChina’s Yangpu LNG terminal on Hainan Island in mid-July with a cargo loaded at Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility in early June. It may sound like a routine LNG delivery, but it was anything but ordinary. The most interesting part was not simply that U.S.-origin LNG had returned to Chinese shores; instead, it showed how U.S. LNG could physically reach China even though the commercial barriers remain in place, enabled by market flexibility and arbitrage. The cargo was moved through QatarEnergy Trading, while the Yangpu terminal has bonded status for two of its 160,000-cubic-meter LNG tanks. That’s key, because in a bonded facility an LNG cargo can be unloaded and stored without it being designated as an import unless it is regasified and sent into the pipeline network. This allows for cargoes to be re-exported, or loaded onto bunkering vessels, without attracting the Chinese import tariffs that have largely dried up the flow of U.S.-sourced LNG to China. (The Yangpu terminal is one of eight operated by state-owned PipeChina, which could be the first to develop a true Asian LNG hub, a subject we’ll explore in a future blog.)To understand why the Al Fat’h cargo matters, we need to look at the players behind the U.S.-China LNG trade and their long-term contracts. On the U.S. side is Venture Global, which developed and operates the Plaquemines LNG and Calcasieu Pass facilities in Louisiana. On the Chinese side, Sinopec and CNOOC Gas & Power stand out. Both signed long-term LNG supply agreements with Venture Global years before trade tensions between the U.S. and China intensified. In 2021, Sinopec signed two separate sale and purchase agreements (SPAs) to buy a combined 4 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 0.52 Bcf/d) of LNG from Plaquemines for 20 years. Sinopec’s trading arm, Unipec, also signed a separate agreement to purchase 3.5 MMtpa (0.46 Bc/d) of LNG from Calcasieu Pass. CNOOC agreed to purchase 2 MMtpa (0.26 Bcf/d) from Plaquemines for 20 years, while it also has a separate 1.5 MMtpa (0.2 Bcf/d) agreement for Calcasieu Pass. Because the contracts are structured on an FOB (free-on-board) basis, the buyers have the flexibility to take delivery at the U.S. terminal and place the LNG in different markets. (Destination flexibility has been the key feature of the U.S. LNG industry from the start; for more, see our Steady as She Goes series and Should I Stay or Should I Go?) That means U.S.-sourced cargoes that reached — or did not reach — China cannot be viewed solely through physical trade between the two countries. ­­While the contracts remain in place, a cargo’s final destination can change; LNG can be sold into another market instead of China, and Chinese demand can be met — or “backfilled” in trading parlance — from other, closer sources. This is where the distinction between physical flows and commercial relationships becomes important. To see why, we need to look at when and how much U.S. LNG actually reached China.As shown in Figure 1 below, U.S. flows to China have been highly variable since the U.S. began exporting LNG in 2016. Flows strengthened rapidly in 2017 and were more consistent in 2018, with a monthly high of 17,509 MMcf recorded in April. The relationship between U.S. LNG and China had gone from a standing start to a rapid courtship in just a few years, although there is some nuance to that. Companies that signed up for U.S. cargoes immediately looked to place their large U.S. exposure with Asian buyers on Henry Hub indexation, which they did. However, hardly any cargoes under those contracts were actually sourced from the U.S.; instead, they were supplied from closer sources to China, saving costs. In that regard, the U.S. was a virtual supplier to China.

Petrobras Deal Adds Commercial Support for Port Arthur Phase 2 - Sempra Infrastructure has signed Brazil’s Petrobras to a 20-year LNG supply agreement for its Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 expansion in Texas, adding a South American buyer as construction advances toward the project’s planned 2030–2031 startup.  At a Glance:

• Petrobras takes 0.8 Mt/y
• Phase 2 construction moving ahead
• Trains target 2030-2031 startups

Caturus to Nearly Double Commonwealth LNG with 7.75 MTPA Expansion - Marcellus Drilling News - - Four months after pulling the trigger on its $13 billion Commonwealth LNG export plant in Cameron Parish, Louisiana (see Caturus Makes FID to Build Commonwealth LNG Export Plant in La), Caturus is already planning to make it bigger. A lot bigger. On Tuesday, Caturus announced a five-train, 7.75 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) expansion that would take the site from 9.5 MTPA to roughly 17.25 MTPA. That’s an 81.6% increase, or “nearly double” in press-release speak. So what’s in it for the Marcellus/Utica? More than you might think, although not in the way we first thought (more on that below).

Caturus Nearly Doubles Commonwealth LNG Capacity Plans in 5-Train Expansion  -- Houston’s Catarus is expanding its Commonwealth LNG export project in Louisiana, adding five trains and 7.75 Mt/y of capacity as global energy demand surges. At a Glance:

• 5 new trains add export capacity
• Expansion targets early 2030s startup
• Initial capacity stands nearly 90% subscribed

U.S. LNG Terminals Increase Toward Winter Levels | RBN Energy -Total U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged 18.9 Bcf/d for the week ending September 13 (blue-dotted line below), up slightly week-on-week with small changes across all terminals. All U.S. terminals are operating around full contracted utilization, with some terminals even beginning to head towards winter peak production levels, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly report. Intake at Cove Point, Corpus Christi, Calcasieu Pass, Elba Island and Plaquemines are all slightly above contracted levels.There is still room to grow because none of them are back at previous peak levels yet, and Sabine Pass could add another 0.5 Bcf/d of feedgas demand when it starts producing at winter peak levels. Cove Point will likely begin its annual maintenance outage on September 19 and could be offline for three weeks, which puts its return in mid-October. After Cove Point returns from maintenance, U.S. feedgas will likely hit new record levels with the combination of winter peak production and new capacity that has come online this year at Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III.

Late Summer Heat Fuels Record September Natural Gas Power Burn - Natural gas power burn across the Lower 48 is off to its strongest September start as summerlike heat lingers over the South, propping up regional spot prices and pointing to a lighter injection in Thursday’s US Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. EIA weekly average US natural gas-fired power generation from 2021 through 2026, measured in GW. At a Glance:
Power burn runs 13% above 5-year average
Southeast cash expands Henry Hub premiums
Injection seen 37 Bcf below year-ago build

US Natural Gas Pipeline Buildout Pace Not Matching AI, LNG Demand Growth --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow featuring Interstate Natural Gas Association (INGAA) CEO Amy Andryszak who outlines the hurdles midstreamers are facing in their race to stabilize infrastructure in key markets amid rapid US demand growth. Artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, power generation, reshoring manufacturers and global LNG exports are pushing North America’s energy needs to record heights, and midstream infrastructure in the United States is hitting a critical wall. While INGAA estimates show that even in a low-carbon scenario there is a need for about 25,000 miles of new natural gas pipelines by 2050, long-standing regulatory hurdles, litigation and supply chain delays threaten to constrain critical markets, which in turn creates price volatility. In this episode of Hub & Flow, NGI’s Christopher Lenton and Andryszak dissect the key drivers and obstacles shaping the future of North American energy transport. From legislative changes and regulatory reform, to navigating steel tariffs and intense competition for natural gas turbines, the discussion outlines what it would take to build the infrastructure required to fuel the continent.

LNG Buyers Rethink Supply Strategies as Middle East Shock Reshapes Trade - Buyers of natural gas are shifting their procurement strategies after a second energy crisis in four years once again upends markets, according to McKinsey & Company. At a Glance:

• 93% plan greater supplier diversification
• Hormuz closure disrupts global LNG supply
• Asia sees deeper procurement changes

US natural gas prices hold steady as higher LNG flows counter rising output -- US natural gas futures held steady as bullish forecasts for more demand next week and an increase in daily flows to liquefied natural gas export plants offset a bearish increase in output and ample amounts of gas in storage. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.1 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $2.912 per million British thermal units. That put the contract up about 3% for the week after falling about 5% last week. Looking ahead, futures for calendar 2027 fell to an average of $3.31 per mmBtu, their lowest since February 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 113.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, up from a monthly record high of 112.2 bcfd in August. Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April. But hotter-than-normal weather this summer has forced energy firms to pull lots of fuel from storage to produce the power needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants. With the weather still hot this week, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 3% above normal during the week ended September 18, down from 3.7% above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of next Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report. Meteorologists forecast weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through October 3. LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, is expected to slide from 109.8 bcfd this week to 108.1 bcfd next week and 105.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 18.2 bcfd on Friday, up from a three-week low of 17.1 bcfd on Thursday, due primarily to an expected increase in flows to Sempra’s 2.0-bcfd Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana, according to LSEG data. That increase in LNG feedgas, however, may not last long since US energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy has said it planned to start a few weeks of maintenance on its 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland as soon as this weekend. Around the world, gas traded near 44-month highs of around $27 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

Iran War Tests US Natural Gas Market as Oil Surges The intensifying Iran war is sending fresh shockwaves through global energy markets. While the impact on US natural gas prices remains muted relative to the turmoil gripping oil and international gas markets, developments this month are amplifying demand for American LNG and lending bullish sentiment.Map of Arabian Peninsula maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal. At a Glance:
Demand for US LNG robust
Iran war side effects critical
Oil, overseas gas prices surge

Trump EPA’s Carbon Rule Reversal Could Hit Natural Gas Prices -The Trump administration finalized a partial repeal of Biden-era carbon rules for power plants, freeing new natural gas-fired turbines from a 2032 carbon capture deadline. The government’s own modeling shows coal gaining the most from the rollback, opening up natural gas supply as LNG demand tightens the market.NGI Henry Hub natural gas forward prices through May 2033 compared with curves from one, two and three years earlier. At a Glance:
CCS deadline lifted for new gas turbines
Repeal keeps 68 GW of coal online
EPA models lower Henry Hub prices

Texas Dominates U.S. Natural Gas Output, Producing Over A Quarter Of National Supply In 2025 - Texas cemented its position as the undisputed leader of American natural gas production in 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of total U.S. output across the year. The state produced 13,603 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2025, a figure that nearly doubles the output recorded by second-place Pennsylvania. That production advantage underscores the sheer scale of Texas energy infrastructure, which continues to outpace every other state by a considerable margin. Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio collectively contributed 28% of U.S. natural gas production, driven largely by prolific output from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. The Marcellus and Utica shales have long been central to Appalachian energy output, providing a significant counterweight to the dominant Permian and other Texas-based production basins. Despite that combined Appalachian strength, no single state came close to matching the volume Texas brought to market throughout the year. Just four states, Texas, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Louisiana, together accounted for 61.3% of all U.S. natural gas withdrawals in 2025, illustrating how concentrated domestic production truly is. That level of geographic concentration carries significant implications for energy policy, pipeline infrastructure planning, and national supply security going forward. New Mexico and Louisiana each play a supporting but critical role in maintaining overall supply levels, particularly as domestic and export demand for liquefied natural gas continues to grow. The data reinforces a long-standing structural reality in American energy markets, where a handful of resource-rich states effectively determine the pace and volume of national gas supply. With global LNG demand rising and U.S. export capacity expanding, Texas production figures will likely remain a closely watched benchmark for energy investors and policymakers alike. The dominance of these four states also raises questions about the resilience of U.S. supply chains should weather events, regulatory shifts, or infrastructure disruptions affect any of these key producing regions simultaneously.

Thousands of gallons of diesel spill from AI data center in Secaucus, N.J. - CBS New York - Thousands of gallons of diesel fuel spilled from an AI data center in Secaucus late last week, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection said. Contractors have been at the scene since, removing the oil from nearby Anderson Creek, a tributary of the Hackensack River. The diesel fuel discharged from a storage tank at Equinix Data Center on Friday has been contained, the New Jersey DEP said. The DEP said it is estimated that 5,000 gallons was discharged, but a spokesperson said it's unclear how much made it into the creek. Bill Sheehan of Hackensack Riverkeeper said he has been told a computer glitch caused the spill. "The computer was calling for oil," he said. The DEP said there have been no impacts to the Hackensack River and "there are no drinking water intakes in the area and no impacts to wildlife have been reported." Sheehan said he's concerned. "I'm not saying that they found a lot of dead animals. I'm not saying that. I am saying it's too early to know," he said. Equinix said it detected the fuel release Friday, stopped it, and immediately contacted different agencies, adding, "We are working closely with those agencies, local officials, and community stakeholders to ensure a thorough remediation, while also conducting a full investigation to determine the root cause and prevent recurrence." "Secaucus is the place where data centers have been being built," said Ben Dziobek of Climate Revolution Action Network. "We need to slow this down, and we are calling for a statewide moratorium on data centers." Equinix said it has been in the community for more than two decades and is committed to resolving the issue, and will be transparent with the community. The DEP said the cleanup should take several days.

Exploration-Led Strategy Keeps EOG's Pipeline Full | Energy Intelligence  -Exploration is part of EOG Resources' DNA. One of the shale sector's true E&P pioneers, EOG has drilled and evaluated nearly every unconventional basin in the US, organically building an expansive portfolio of foundational and diversified asset bases. The Houston-based independent continues to test new frontiers, with ongoing efforts to unlock unconventional resources in the Middle East and conventional barrels elsewhere. But CEO Ezra Yacob does not necessarily expect many of EOG's rivals to replicate its strategy: "I'm not sure if we're really going to be a trendsetter," he tells Energy Intelligence in an exclusive interview. As shale enters a new era of maturity, Yacob still sees plenty of room for innovation to drive recoveries higher. For many shale operators, consolidation within primary basins has been the key driver of growth. While EOG has dabbled in M&A, including last year's $5.6 billion purchase of Encino Acquisition Partners, most of its growth has come through the drill bit. "So much of the industry has moved more toward exploitation, development and specialization in a single basin, more so than exploration. I'm not sure if there is a strong desire to start exploring, especially internationally," Yacob says. From 2017-24, for example, Energy Intelligence calculations show that EOG's proved reserves increased by 86% to 4.47 billion barrels of oil equivalent, primarily through organic exploration and with limited dealmaking. EOG's reserve base comprises a uniquely diversified portfolio, including four "foundational" assets: the Permian's Delaware Basin; the Eagle Ford Shale and the Dorado gas play, both in south Texas; and the Utica Shale in Ohio.

Midland’s Summit Petroleum Wraps U-Turns Around Planned EOG Well - Hart Energy - Permian Basin operator Summit Petroleum has stacked U-turn laterals on either side of where EOG Resources planned—but has not yet completed—a lateral in the southern Midland Basin. Summit Petroleum's five U-turn wells in the southern Midland Basin IP'ed an average of 1584 bbl/d each in Upton County.

Basket Case – With U.S. Refiners Already Running Hard, Relief on Diesel Remains Elusive | RBN Energy  -- A $100/bbl diesel crack spread is an incredibly strong market signal, but it doesn’t translate to higher refinery output because most U.S. refiners already operate at or near their practical limits. As global supply disruptions drain inventories and foreign buyers pull more barrels from the U.S., diesel prices have surged even as domestic refinery runs remain near historic highs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why high crack spreads don’t necessarily increase a refinery’s output, how market disruptions elsewhere can drain U.S. inventories, and the indicators that will help tell us whether the diesel squeeze is easing (or worsening).As we noted in Part 1 of this mini-series, 2026 will be remembered by some as the year that diesel cracks topped the century mark ($100/bbl) for the first time. On August 17, the U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread (vs. WTI Cushing) surpassed that sky-high level. On Monday, September 1, 2026, the diesel crack closed at $103.29/bbl, the highest close on record, before reaching a record high intraday price the following day of $108.02/bbl. As of publication, the diesel crack soared even higher, closing at a new record high of $107.72/bbl on September 10. It’s important to note that global crude markets are not terribly short of crude in the traditional sense (despite various geopolitically driven constraints). Instead, the world is struggling to refine enough crude oil into middle distillates to satisfy demand. U.S. distillate stocks in August were on track for their lowest end-of-month level since April 2005 and were the lowest for the month since 1951.A crack spread measures the difference between the value of refined products and the crude oil used to produce them. A $100/bbl headline diesel crack (the right end of the orange line, measured against the left axis in Figure 1 below) does not mean a refinery earns $100/bbl in net profit. First and foremost, U.S. refiners and importers currently incur approximately $15 in RVO/RIN compliance costs for every barrel of diesel sold domestically. That cost is passed through 100% into the domestic diesel price. The headline crack therefore includes the full RVO/RIN cost—an amount the refinery must spend on compliance rather than retain as margin. To calculate the effective crack spread, the entire RVO/RIN cost per barrel of diesel must be deducted:Effective diesel crack = Headline diesel crack − RVO/RIN cost per barrel of diesel.  Thus, a $100/bbl headline crack less than a $15/bbl RVO/RIN cost yields an $85/bbl effective crack (still a historical high value), before operating costs and other expenses. The same distinction explains why, on a comparable basis, U.S. diesel exports to Latin America typically sell at a discount to domestic diesel equal to the RVO/RIN cost: exported barrels do not carry that domestic compliance obligation.In addition, refiners still have operating expenses, transportation costs, financing costs, hedging effects and the economics of the other products produced by the refinery. Instead, it means that the market value of diesel relative to crude has become extraordinarily high. If crude (blue line and left axis) is expensive because the world is short of barrels, crude prices should be doing most of the work. But when diesel prices (green dashed line and right axis) rise dramatically relative to crude, the problem is further downstream.   One would think this would lead refiners to increase their output, but there’s a big catch in the usual higher-cracks-bring-more-supply story: U.S. refiners do not wait for exceptional margins before running hard, as you can see in the steep increase around the variable-cost threshold in Figure 2 below. Once margins cover the incremental cost of processing another barrel (and we are in the operating regime the vast majority of the time), most refiners quickly return to high operating rates (yellow box in Figure 2). Refineries carry enormous fixed costs, while the cost of processing the next barrel is comparatively low. Because refineries have such large fixed costs, processing another profitable barrel helps to cover those costs even when overall margins are not exceptional. Indeed, for most U.S. refiners, we dip below this marginal-cost threshold only during periods of extremely weak demand and refinery margins, with the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic as two relatively recent examples. So, as long as the margin on that barrel covers the incremental cost of processing it, running the refinery contributes something toward fixed costs, which explains why the curve rises so sharply. Average margins normally clear that bar, as seen in the ‘Average’ portion of the x-axis. At this point, the curve has nearly flattened, meaning most available refining capacity is already running. A $100/bbl crack makes a refinery much more profitable, but it does not make the crude unit or hydrocracker any bigger. Once a refinery approaches its physical operating limit, stronger margins cannot create much additional throughput (practical maximum in Figure 2). Maintenance and outages can also move this practical ceiling up or down. So despite profitability increasing substantially, refinery throughput changes very little (blue box in chart below). At the aggregate U.S. level, utilization therefore moves much more with the turnaround calendar and unplanned outages than with the difference between average and very strong margins. Broad discretionary run cuts are unusual. Economics generally have to get very weak, as they did during the late 2000s financial crisis and during COVID, before a large share of the industry starts backing down. A few smaller or higher-cost refineries adjust rates more often, but they are mostly noise in the national numbers.That operating model is also why refining margins are so volatile. Refineries keep running through mediocre markets because the incremental barrel still contributes toward fixed costs. Once the available system is full, however, higher margins bring forth little additional throughput. Demand and outages can change in days, while a major expansion or new refinery takes years. Cracks can fall a long way before economics get bad enough to force meaningful run cuts, then soar when the market runs short of capacity.That is where U.S. refining sits today. As discussed in our weekly Crude Billboard report, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show second-quarter runs at their highest level since 2019. Distillate exports averaged 1.56 MMb/d, 30% above the five-year average, and Reuters estimated early August exports near a record 1.9 MMb/d. Those exports do not show that high cracks unlocked idle capacity. They show foreign buyers pushing harder on a system that was already near its limit.During the week ended August 28, the EIA reported 17.5 MMb/d of crude inputs and 17.7 MMb/d of gross inputs, equal to 98.0% of reported operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the highest utilization rate since August 2018. Ratings are not hard ceilings, but little headroom remains at that national rate. Extra diesel also requires room in hydrocrackers, hydrotreaters, hydrogen plants and sulfur-recovery units.Despite high runs, U.S. distillate inventories remain low. As of the week ended September 4, inventories stood at about 106.3 MMbbl, 14 MMbbl below year-ago levels and roughly 12% below the five-year seasonal average. Inventories still remain low, particularly low in PADD I, whose inventories fell the prior week to 19.3 MMbbl, their lowest level since records began in 1990.With stocks already that low, a foreign supply loss cannot be absorbed quietly through inventory. More of the adjustment has to come through higher prices (which trigger demand destruction), shortages, or mandated demand curtailment. Figure 3 below shows how a disruption elsewhere can drain U.S. stocks and widen diesel cracks even when domestic refineries are running flat out. Higher cracks can redirect cargoes and encourage modest yield shifts, but they cannot quickly create much additional U.S. throughput. Potentially lower demand is not likely to provide quick relief. Most diesel is burned to move freight, harvest crops, operate construction and mining equipment, and power industrial and marine activities. High prices will eventually destroy some demand, but much of that consumption cannot be easily deferred. Late-summer and fall harvest demand adds to the near-term pressure. This explains why diesel cracks have been able to achieve such high values.  Can the headline crack remain at these extremely elevated levels? Probably not indefinitely. But higher U.S. utilization is not a viable pathway to relief. Relief will have to come from returning Russian or Gulf supply, higher refinery utilizations elsewhere (such as Latin America and Africa, especially the new 700-Mb/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria, where utilization is typically weak due to poor operation and maintenance rather than economics), increased exports from China, weaker demand, rebuilt inventories, and/or lower RIN costs. Refiners can adjust crude slates, shift yields toward distillate, and squeeze a little more out of individual units, but those are small responses compared with a major loss of foreign supply. The EIA expects U.S. refinery inputs to remain around 17 MMb/d through August, then fall below 16 MMb/d in October as seasonal maintenance begins. That decline would reflect the turnaround calendar, not refiners walking away from strong margins. With inventories already thin, routine autumn maintenance could tighten the balance further.  Several indicators will show whether the squeeze is easing (or worsening):

• Inventories. A sustained build, adjusted for normal seasonality, would show that U.S. production plus imports are outpacing domestic product supplied plus exports. Conversely, continued below-normal draws would signal that the U.S. balance remains tight.
• Latin American refinery utilization. Mexico and Venezuela have significant refinery capacity that is not running (or running at low utilization). If operators can get those plants running more reliably, they could add meaningful product supply to the global market. There is, however, no sign of a broad, sustained increase in runs, and none appears imminent. But the capacity is there (at least on paper), so it is worth watching. In Mexico, the performance of the new Dos Bocas refinery will be of particular interest — it is still struggling to achieve rates anywhere near its design capacity of 340 Mb/d and in the past few months throughput has fallen to below 150 Mb/d due to several fires and other operating hiccups. The evolution of Venezuela's political situation will also be worth noting, although a meaningful improvement in refinery operations (from current utilization rates in the 20% range) is a long-term proposition and will require significant foreign investment and partnerships.
• Chinese Refined Product Export Policy. China has spare refining capacity but routinely restricts product exports. Exports were severely restricted in April-June 2026, with some loosening of export restrictions seen in July and August 2026. Nonetheless, it is never easy to predict export policies on a month-to-month basis, as they are driven by domestic politics and are not necessarily responsive to global markets. The biggest swings in Chinese product exports generally come in jet, but that would still be impactful to middle distillate markets.
• Exports. If U.S. diesel exports remain high while stocks fall, foreign buyers are continuing to pull barrels from the U.S. market.
• Russian and Persian Gulf supply. A sustained recovery in Russian product exports would help. However, the more likely near-term swing could come from Persian Gulf refineries returning and Hormuz shipping normalizing.
• RINs and BOHO. Lower Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices (likely driven by a narrower spread between soybean oil and ULSD, known as the BOHO spread) would reduce compliance costs even if the physical diesel balance remained tight. (A RIN is the regulatory mechanism for tracking the production and blending of renewable fuels and also allows refiners and importers to prove they’ve met their Renewable Volume Obligation, or RVO, mandates.)

The diesel market will not be balanced by U.S. refiners simply turning up the dial. With runs already near practical limits and inventories well below normal, meaningful relief will have to come from somewhere else — returning refinery capacity overseas, stronger Russian and Gulf product flows, softer demand, rebuilding stocks or lower compliance costs. Until then, a major supply disruption can continue to produce an outsized price response. The key is to watch the physical market, not just the headline crack: inventories, exports, refinery utilization and global product flows will tell us whether the diesel squeeze is actually loosening, or merely waiting for the next disruption.

Pink Pony Club – Enbridge Saddles Up for Expanded Crude Service With Pony Express Acquisition | RBN Energy - Enbridge is buying Tallgrass Energy’s crude oil transportation, gathering and storage business for US$2.55 billion in cash. The deal includes a 75% interest in the 1,050-mile Pony Express Pipeline, a roughly 460-Mb/d crude oil system linking Rockies production with the Cushing, OK, storage hub and providing direct access to about 500 Mb/d of refining capacity. Enbridge also gets a 51% interest in the Powder River Gateway system, about 8.4 MMbbl of storage capacity across nine crude terminals, and Stanchion Energy, a crude marketing business. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what the acquisition means for Enbridge.  Tallgrass Energy entered the crude business following its August 2012 purchase of about 432 miles of the existing Pony Express Pipeline (pink line in Figure 1 below) from Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas Transmission. The line had originally been a crude-oil pipeline but was converted to natural-gas service in the mid-1990s. After receiving Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization in September 2013, Tallgrass abandoned the line’s natural-gas service in December 2013 and converted it back to crude-oil service. It also constructed approximately 260 miles of new pipeline from Lincoln County, KS, south to Cushing, creating the original Guernsey-to-Cushing mainline, which entered commercial service in October 2014. Pony Express receives crude at the Guernsey, WY, hub from the Powder River Basin — including volumes delivered via the Powder River Gateway System’s Iron Horse and Powder River Express pipelines (more on those below), as well as from the Bakken. The initial Pony Express system established a Rockies-to-Cushing crude oil route, with deliveries also available to the Phillips 66 refinery (blue refinery icon) in Ponca City, OK. The Northeast Colorado Lateral entered commercial service in April 2015, adding supply access from northeastern Colorado. The 55-mile Platteville Extension, which connected a new origin near Platteville, CO, to the Pony Express system, entered service in Q2 2018. Pony Express completed direct connections to the Holly Frontier El Dorado refinery (green refinery icon) and the CHS McPherson refinery (yellow refinery icon) in January 2018, giving shippers direct access to three refineries, including the existing Ponca City connection. Tallgrass also acquired a 51% interest in the Pawnee Terminal in Colorado, an injection point for the Northeast Colorado Lateral, and a 38% interest in the Deeprock North crude oil terminal in Cushing, which merged into the Deeprock Development terminal (gray terminal with orange icon) the same month. (Tallgrass owned ~60% of the combined entity after the merger.)Tallgrass and Silver Creek Midstream formed the Iron Horse Pipeline joint venture in February 2018 to transport Powder River Basin crude to Guernsey. Iron Horse (aqua line) is an approximately 80-mile, 16-inch pipeline with an initial capacity of 100 Mb/d and expansion capability to about 200 Mb/d. Silver Creek also owned the Powder River Express (PRE; dark-blue line), a 70-mile, 12-inch crude oil pipeline connecting Powder River Basin crude to Guernsey, with a capacity of about 90 Mb/d and expansion capability to 125 Mb/d. Effective January 1, 2019, Tallgrass and Silver Creek Midstream combined the pipelines and Guernsey crude-oil terminal facilities in the Powder River Gateway joint venture. Tallgrass owns 51% of Powder River Gateway and operates the joint venture, while Silver Creek owns 49%The expansion of Pony Express and the Powder River Basin supply system occurred alongside a broader change in Tallgrass’s ownership. Tallgrass became a public company through Tallgrass Energy Partners and related entities before Blackstone Infrastructure began acquiring control. Blackstone completed its purchase of Tallgrass’s general partner and approximately 44% economic interest for about $3.2 billion in March 2019. Blackstone and its partners then completed the transaction in April 2020, acquiring the remaining public Class A shares for $22.45 per share.Today, Pony Express is about 1,050 miles long, with 460 Mb/d of capacity connecting Rocky Mountain crude production with Cushing and direct access to approximately 500 Mb/d of refining capacity. A planned Pony Express expansion is expected to increase system capacity to approximately 515 Mb/d when it enters service in late 2027.That brings us to what Enbridge is buying. The deal, which is expected to close in late 2026, includes a 75% interest in Pony Express and a 51% interest in Powder River Gateway, which includes the two crude pipelines (Iron Horse and PRE) with combined delivery capacity to move about 240 Mb/d of crude to Guernsey. The deal also includes about 8.4 MMbbl of storage capacity across nine crude terminals (gray tank icons in Figure 1) connected to Pony Express, including the non-operating interest in the Deeprock terminal in Cushing, as well as Stanchion Energy, a crude-marketing business. This deal follows Enbridge’s recently announced $600 million acquisition of Salt Creek Midstream’s crude gathering business in the Permian Basin (see Connection). Enbridge announced plans to buy Salt Creek Midstream’s crude-oil-gathering business on August 26. The deal includes full ownership of the Orla and Wink North systems and a 50% interest in the Delaware Crossing system, giving Enbridge a stronger connection to Permian production. From there, crude can move onto larger pipelines Enbridge has ownership of, such as Gray Oak or Cactus II, to Corpus Christi, then to the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) for export. Enbridge said the Salt Creek and Tallgrass transactions fit its broader approach to investing in crude infrastructure where it sees strong basin fundamentals, contracted cash flow and opportunities for future growth.The Salt Creek acquisition will strengthen the connection between crude production in the Permian Basin and export capacity at EIEC (white diamond in Figure 2 below) because of Enbridge’s Gray Oak Pipeline (magenta lines), an 850-mile system that moves crude from multiple West Texas receipt points to Corpus Christi and Ingleside. It entered service shortly before the pandemic with a capacity of 900 Mb/d and has long operated at high utilization rates. Continued Permian supply growth prompted Enbridge to expand the line by 120 Mb/d in two phases (see I Want to Break Free). The first, an 80-Mb/d expansion from Crane to Corpus Christi and Ingleside, entered service in May 2025. The second, 40-Mb/d phase was completed in May 2026, bringing Gray Oak’s capacity to 1.02 MMb/d.Enbridge also owns 30% of Cactus II (blue lines in Figure 2), a 575-mile, 26-inch system that was designed to ease Permian constraints, with construction beginning in late 2017 and service starting in August 2019 at 585 Mb/d. Plains All American operates and owns 70% of Cactus II, which is also connected to EIEC. The pipeline extends into the Midland and Delaware basins via connections at Station 285 near Orla, Wink South and McCamey, and now has 670 Mb/d of capacity, with deliveries to George West, Taft and Ingleside on the South Texas coast.With the Salt Creek acquisition, Enbridge will gain crude-gathering infrastructure closer to the wellhead in the Delaware Basin. Barrels collected at or near Wink and Orla can move into larger Permian takeaway systems — including Cactus II and Gray Oak — on their way to the Texas coast. The acquisition strengthens Enbridge’s physical connection between Permian production and its EIEC.

Sable Offshore Digging Up 12 Spots of Pipeline for Corrosion - The Santa Barbara Independent --Six months after Sable Offshore Oil relaunched oil production at its Las Flores Canyon Plant in Santa Barbara County — after a 10-year shutdown resulting from a major oil spill caused by pipeline corrosion in 2015 — company attorneys notified county officials that they need county clearance to dig up 12 lengths of pipeline to determine whether they’re as corroded as a federally mandated tests indicated they were. Should the 12 “anomalies” — as these corrosion hot spots are known — eat into the wall of the steel pipeline by 40 percent or more, the company would be required to repair that portion of pipe. Although the county counsel’s office has not yet decided whether to issue the Houston-based oil company such a clearance — or even what the county’s jurisdictional authority is — Sable work crews have been out digging up pipeline since September 8. Seven of the anomalies are located along the coast — more typically the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission — and four stretches located inland close to Sable’s Las Flores plant. (Two of the anomalies are located at one site.) For the time being, county officials are saying they do not know how many — if any — of the 12 anomalies will require repair. Regardless, Sable is required to dig up the corrosion hot spots to visually and physically inspect the stretches of pipe to determine if the actual corrosion is as bad as the “smart pig” tests — as they are colloquially known — indicated, using a method known as Inline Inspection that bombards the inner walls of the pipeline with electrostatic energy. According to county spokesperson Kelsey Buttita, the county does not know how corroded the “smart pig” said the 12 anomaly hot spots were. Nor does she know at this point whether any of the 12 anomalies will need to be repaired. For the time being, the county and Sable are describing these digs as “validation digs.” According to Buttita, Sable told the county that pipeline excavation and repair can be conducted “live,” meaning that pumping need not stop for the work to get done. The first leg of the work ran from September 8 to 15. The next leg will run from September 18 to 26. For a host of obvious reasons, corrosion control is an exceptionally hot-button issue where Sable and its pipeline are concerned. Given the viscosity of the crude oil pumped from Sable’s three offshore platforms, the heat required to move that thick oil up our steep mountain slopes, and the condensation that accumulates along the lower half of the pipeline as a result of that heat, Sable’s pipeline is unusually susceptible to corrosion. Making the matter more charged, traditional industry best practices for corrosion control have demonstrated they are simply not up to the challenge here. That — coupled with the criminal neglect evidenced by one of the pipeline’s prior owners — led to the pipeline rupture of 2015 and the 142,000 gallons of crude that spilled as a result in what’s known as the Refugio Oil Spill. Currently, Sable answers to the federal pipeline safety administration for its marching orders regarding pipeline safety and corrosion control. That federal agency seized oversight authority from the Office of the State Fire Marshal last year at Sable’s request; the Fire Marshal had insisted upon a level of corrosion significantly more stringent than the federal agency and, based on this reading of the rules, denied Sable the restart permit the company then desperately needed. Sable accused the Fire Marshal of moving the goalposts where corrosion control was concerned at the last minute as part of a politically motivated hit by Sacramento Democrats. Regardless, this federal agency — the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, or PHMSA — requires that Sable conduct two smart pig tests over nearly 200 miles of pipeline twice a year for the first two years of operation. After those two years, PHMSA will require just one such test. Sable first notified the county on August 31. According to county spokesperson Buttita, Sable informed the county that the current validation sites “are not located in the exact same locations that were repaired since 2017,” alluding to the 120 anomalies that Sable repaired along the pipeline in the past two years to address the widespread corrosion discovered in the aftermath of the spill. While that description — not “the exact same location” — opens the door to further questions, Buttita added, “Staff confirmed that this is correct based on review of the information submitted.” Linda Krop, chief counsel for the Environmental Defense Center and one of Sable’s most dogged opponents, expressed legal and operational safety concerns about the news that Sable is digging “validation” sites along the coast and back country. “According to Sable and the Trump Administration, this pipeline was supposed to be totally safe. But just six months after starting, they are already finding so-called anomalies, which are defects that are serious enough that they require excavations and potential repairs.” Krop blistered Sable for doing the work without having secured what normally would have been required permits. (With the Trump Administration’s invocation of the Defense Production Act to order Sable to restart production at the end of last year — arguing more oil production is necessary because of national security concerns — anything resembling “normal” ceased to exist as a matter of permitting requirements.) Krop charged that Sable needs coastal development permits from the Coastal Commission to conduct digs that move 47 cubic yards in the county’s environmentally sensitive coastal zone. “Just last month, a court ruled that Sable can’t make any repairs to the pipeline in the Coastal Zone without permits from the Coastal Commission,” Krop said. Calls and texts to Sable representatives for comment have not been returned.

Ksi Lisims Builds Commercial Momentum With 20-Year Santos LNG Deal -Ksi Lisims LNG has added Australia’s Santos to its growing list of prospective buyers, giving the proposed Canadian terminal another commercialization boost as developers work toward a final investment decision (FID) by year-end. NGI LNG netback prices compare Western Canada, Costa Azul and Cove Point with North American natural gas forwards through September 2027.  At a Glance:

• Santos agrees to 1 Mt/y
• Binding SPAs cover half capacity
• Developers target year-end FID

Naftogaz, Hanwha Agreements Advance 2 Canadian LNG Proposals -    Two early stage Canadian LNG export proposals have taken additional commercial steps, with Quebec’s Kino Aski LNG identifying its first prospective buyer and British Columbia’s Kanata LNG advancing investment and ownership arrangements. NOVA/AECO C natural gas spot prices and forward curve through 2030, with forwards mostly ranging from about $1.30 to $2.50/MMBtu.  At a Glance:
Kino Aski names 1st prospective buyer
Naftogaz eyes long-term Canadian LNG
Kanata advances proposed Hanwha partnership

‘A Long Time Coming’ for Ecuador, Colombia’s New LNG Plans  -Ecuador’s state oil and gas company Petroecuador is seeking interest in an LNG import project as the nation’s government looks to shore up energy security.  NOAA map shows how often El Niño summers have been warmer or cooler than average worldwide across 29 historical events.  At a Glance:
Ecuador eyeing 60–100 MMcf/d
Colombia plans 150 MMcf/d terminal
Drought raises power demand

VLCC Freight Rates Soar to Record High | RBN Energy -As discussed in this week’s Crude Billboard, the cost of moving U.S. crude into international markets became a more significant constraint last week, as the broader energy market strengthened amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The cost to charter an Aframax vessel from the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) to Europe (green line in chart below) more than doubled, rising from below 250 Worldscale (WS) points at the end of the prior week to nearly WS500 on Friday, their highest level since early April. The increase was not limited to a single vessel class or destination but reflected broader tightening across the tanker market. A raise in rates also proved consequential for long-haul exports. The cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) from the USGC to Asia soared 25% to nearly $37 million per voyage on Friday, the highest since RBN’s records began and almost four times the year-ago level, before skyrocketing to a new record high of $44.8 million per voyage on Monday (far right of blue line in chart below). These increases materially change the export calculation. A wider Brent-WTI spread generally improves the economics of moving discounted U.S. barrels overseas, but the spread must now cover a substantially larger freight bill before an exporter realizes any improvement in netback. Unless the Brent-WTI spread widened by enough to offset the weekly increase in VLCC costs, the economics of an incremental cargo to Asia deteriorated despite the more supportive benchmark differential.

Pemex contains another oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico  - An oil spill was detected at Pemex facilities north of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche, last Thursday, prompting the Navy to activate a contingency plan to help the state-owned company control the leak quickly enough to assure the public that no oil would reach the coastline. Unlike the major Gulf Coast incident that occurred earlier this year, Pemex quickly confirmed that crude was leaking from one of its pipelines. “Immediate action was taken to depressurize the pipeline and isolate it by closing safety valves at its ends,” Pemex said in a statement released on Saturday. “Since then, it has remained without flow and without any leakage.” Complementing Pemex’s security measures, the Navy deployed its ARM “Guanajuato” Ocean Patrol Vessel, four additional boats and two aircraft, along with 255 naval personnel. Additionally, continuous observation is being carried out to monitor the evolution of the slick — which measured 4 square kilometers on Thursday — and forecast its movement so as to apprise state authorities and the public. Agency for Safety, Energy and the Environment (ASEA) scientists were analyzing three drift forecast models, all projecting a net westward shift over the next five days. ASEA has also been conducting overflights to document the containment, the clean-up and repair efforts. The Permanent Observatory of the Gulf of Mexico — which discovered and reported the leak — is an integrated, real-time environmental monitoring system created by the federal government in April. It was launched amid fallout over a massive leak in February that Pemex officials originally hid from upper management and then was made worse when the oil company denied responsibility. This time, authorities have been more transparent. Pemex acknowledged that the incident occurred at its Ek Balam platform system, part of the Cantarell oil field, one of the most productive in Mexican history By Sunday, the dredging of the seabed had been completed and Pemex said pipeline repairs would be completed in the coming days.

The Long Road – U.S. Oil Deals Have Venezuela Poised for Long-Term Growth, But It’s Far from Certain   --Venezuela’s oil industry spent more than a decade moving in the wrong direction, with crude production, exports and refinery operations falling far below their former levels. But 2026 has brought a notable change. Production has begun to recover, exports have risen and even refinery throughput has moved slightly higher. A sweeping new agreement with the U.S. could accelerate investment and development across the country’s upstream oil sector, although that outcome is far from certain. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the recent improvements in Venezuelan crude oil production and exports in light of its deal with the U.S., and although that deal does not involve refining, we will also address the prospects there.Under the first-of-its-kind agreement announced in late August, Venezuela agreed to grant 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), the country’s second-largest private oil producer. NABEP, which said it expects to spend nearly $100 billion on new infrastructure in Venezuela, granted the U.S. a 35% equity stake in its corporate parent and also gave the U.S. the right to purchase, at production cost, 20% of the offtake from all current and future fields NABEP will operate, according to a White House fact sheet published August 31. The U.S. also has the right of first refusal to purchase the remaining 80% of its production, per the fact sheet. The deal greatly expands U.S. control of Venezuela’s energy sector..We should note at the top that there are a seemingly endless number of questions about the practical and legal concerns around the highly unusual deal. Can the U.S. government legally take a majority stake in a foreign joint venture? How politically durable will the agreement be in the U.S. and Venezuela? Will it encourage other oil and gas companies to invest in Venezuela? Those, and others, are thorny questions and we’re not going to attempt to answer them here. Our focus today is what the deal, and a separate announcement by Chevron (more on that below), could mean for Venezuela’s oil sector going forward given the changes already seen this year.Venezuela’s oil industry has been in long-term decline, but its massive reserves alone provide hope for a lasting turnaround. Venezuela reported in 2023 that it has 303 billion barrels of proved reserves (far-left bar in Figure 1 below) — roughly equal to 17% of the global total and the highest of any country. The announced deal with the NABEP would give the U.S. access to 65 billion barrels (green bar segment at far left; about 21% of the total) but would not include the other 248 billion barrels (orange bar segment). The U.S. has about 74 billion barrels of proved reserves (red bar segment), ranking #9 globally.

Antwerp-Bruges shipping resumes after oil spill disruption - Port Technology International - Shipping traffic has resumed at the Deurganckdock in the Port of Antwerp following an oil spill that temporarily disrupted operations. The incident occurred near quays 1714-1716 on 14 September, with emergency and clean-up teams deployed to contain the pollution and address damage to the vessel involved. The hole in the vessel’s hull was temporarily sealed on 14 September, allowing shipping traffic to pass the affected vessel. Permanent repairs are still required. The Kieldrecht Lock has also returned to service, while clean-up operations remain ongoing. As of 15 September at 08:30, a mooring ban remained in place at berths K1714, K1716 and K1720. READ: Port of Antwerp-Bruges brings digital release to Zeebrugge During the incident, part of the Deurganckdock was closed, and vessels were unable to pass the affected ship. Traffic was diverted through the Kallo Lock where possible. Operations elsewhere in the Deurganckdock, including shipping and loading and unloading activities outside the affected area, continued. Two inland vessels located within the affected zone were cleaned and subsequently left the area. The vessel involved, MSC Renaissance III, was the only vessel still reported to be polluted. No oil pollution had been detected spreading into the Scheldt. Clean-up teams continue to contain and remove the remaining pollution while work progresses towards a permanent repair of the vessel’s hull.

IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027 - The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday. Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023. In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration. Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes. OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.The shortage is already destroying demand.The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August. Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.Supply is disappearing faster.  That puts the IEA nearly 2.9 million bpd away from OPEC on 2026 demand. OPEC said Thursday that it still expects global oil consumption to grow by 380,000 bpd this year.The two forecasters converge in 2027. The IEA expects demand growth of 2.6 million bpd next year, while OPEC sees 2.36 million bpd.

XRG’s Caspian Expansion Converges With US LNG Push Into Europe Abu Dhabi-backed investment firm XRG has reached into Southeast and Central European natural gas markets with the acquisition of a stake in the Southern Gas Corridor, strengthening a Caspian supply position as US LNG exporters pursue many of the same regional buyers. At a Glance:

• XRG adds Southern Gas Corridor stake
• US LNG targets overlapping markets
• Balkan gas routes draw investment

Kazakhstan to boost purchases of Russian gas | Eurasianet - Kazakhstan intends to increase natural gas imports from Russia. The purchase price may be cheap, but the overall cost could turn out to be steep because of pending new US sanctions on Russia. Under a supplementary agreement signed with the Russian energy giant Gazprom, Kazakhstan has agreed to purchase about 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas this year, up from 4 million bcm in 2025, the Tass news agency reported. The two sides are still in talks about the purchase of as much as 9 bcm in 2027. Kazakhstan has been a net natural gas exporter over the years, and in 2025 domestic production reached a record level of 68.1 bcm. At the same time, domestic demand is surging. A key unknown factor in the Gazprom import deal is the price. Gazprom did not disclose financial details. It is probably a bargain rate. Russia’s energy industry is a crucial income earner for the Kremlin, which needs the revenue to keep its war effort in Ukraine afloat. The war has closed off lucrative European markets for Gazprom, forcing the company to reportedly offer deep discounts to entice purchases elsewhere. The Gazprom supplementary deal could thus offer Kazakhstan a low-cost way of meeting growing domestic demand while not losing a big chunk of revenue generated by the country’s exports. Uzbekistan, where domestic gas production has steadily declined in recent years, appears to be following a buy-Russian-gas-low, sell-Uzbek-gas-high strategy to cover growing domestic demand while maintaining substantial export earnings. Uzbek gas exports in 2025 generated about $629 million in revenue, while mainly Russian imports were valued at $1.66 billion. The decline in Uzbek domestic gas production is accelerating rapidly. Officials reported 18.3 billion bcm were extracted during the first half of 2026, compared to 21.9 bcm during H1 the previous year. The sanctions bill passed by the US Congress on September 16, and likely to be signed by President Donald Trump, could disrupt Kazakh and Uzbek gas import plans. The bill stands to turn the screws on Russia’s energy sector and enables the president to impose punitive tariffs on any nation that purchases Russian energy. In addition, Kazakh and Uzbek gas purchases could potentially expose entities in the two Central Asian states to secondary sanctions.

India’s crude oil imports in August fall 3%, import bill rises 18% - India’s imports of crude oil in August deaccelerated 3% though the import bill stood about 18.2% higher from the comparable period last year, according to provisional government data, potentially indicative of an elongated period of continuing uncertainties prior to the resurgence of tensions in West Asia early-September. August also had import volumes of liquified natural gas (LNG) and spending staying nearly flat on a year-over-year basis. India’s net spend on oil and gas stayed nearly flat in August at $9.3 billion. August alsohad import volumes ofliquifiednatural gas and spending stayingnearly flat ona year-over-year basis. India’s crude oil basket averaged $90.19 for every barrel during the reported period compared to $82.04 per barrel in July and $69.11 per barrel in August last year. Notwithstanding the elevated cost for procuring crude, India’s net import bill — which is the difference between petroleum products, crude and gas imports; and exports of petroleum products — stayed unchanged at $9.3 billion. The country’s refiners imported 19 million metric tonnes (MMT) of crude in August for which they spent $11.7 billion. In the same month last year, they had spent $9.9 billion to import 19.6 MMT of crude oil. The unchanged net import bill can be attributed to India’s refiners earning about 43% more money from exports despite a more than 14% decline in quantities supplied during the reported period. India’s LNG imports in August spurred 0.1% from comparable period last year to 2,915 million standard cubic meters (MMSCM) for which it spent the same $1.2 billion.

Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Russia Weighs Longer Export Ban, US Eyes Its Own Diesel futures and refining spreads climbed to record highs as worsening supply disruptions in the Gulf and Russia tightened availability of the industrial fuel that powers the global economy. Potential export restrictions, or at least extending risk, are compounding the squeeze: Moscow is reportedly considering extending its diesel export ban, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Tuesday he was "open to exploring" a US diesel export ban. Nymex heating oil futures, the US benchmark for diesel, jumped 6.1% Tuesday to their highest settlement in records dating to 1986. European gasoil futures climbed 6.2% to a record in data going back to 1989. The squeeze was even more severe in refining spreads. The US heating oil crack, which measures the difference between fuel and crude prices, surged to $117 a barrel on Wednesday morning, the highest level in Bloomberg data going back to 2009. Moves in diesel and refining spreads show the energy shock isn't necessarily in crude available on global markets but is, in fact, festering deep inside the industrial fuel market as a global refining crisis. Russia is considering extending its diesel export ban through October, potentially adding pressure as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter. Barclays refining and midstream analyst Theresa Chen commented to clients on Tuesday about Thune's comments on a potential US diesel export ban. She said, "Given renewed discussion surrounding a diesel export ban, we discuss the potential implications across our refining coverage. We continue to view the possibility of an export ban as both detrimental to the US refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief." At the start of the week, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that the diesel price shock echoes similar moves gasoline made during the 2008 energy shock.

Vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO reports  - Iranian state media has claimed an Iranian commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz late Saturday, killing one person, amid an ongoing battle between the US and Iran for control over the crucial energy chokepoint. It comes at the same time as Iran-backed rebels in Yemen step up attacks and advance in their efforts to control a second vital waterway in the region, which could put further pressure on global oil prices. The Hormuz attack, which the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said injured four, took place near Qeshm Island in the strait. Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) quoted the Qeshm governor as blaming a “terrorist enemy” for the attack. The US has not commented on the reported attack. CNN has reached out to US Central Command for comment. The US military has previously struck Iranian-flagged vessels as it maintains a blockade of Iranian ports and faces the renewed threat of Iranian ballistic missiles launched at its warships. Qeshm Island, which is about 14 miles from the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, is key to Iran asserting control over traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels of oil passed every day before the war. Traffic remains about 90% below pre-conflict levels. On Sunday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said that the MT El Gaia, a Panamanian-flagged vessel with 14 Indians among its crew, was attacked off the Omani coast. “Of the 14 Indian crew onboard, 13 Indians have been rescued so far,” ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on X. “Search and Rescue operations for the missing Indian national are continuing.” Iran’s military said the El Gaia hit a sea mine while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media on Monday. US Central Command quickly branded the claim as “false,” asserting that the ship was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend. CNN has reached out to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs for comment.  Separately, another vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait late Saturday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center.

Iran Reports One Killed in Attack on Iranian Commercial Ship Near Qeshm Island - -Iranian media reported on Sunday that an Iranian commercial ship was struck by a projectile off the coast of Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz and that at least one person was killed and several others were wounded in the attack. Iran’s PressTV quoted Hossein Amir-Teymouri, Governor of Qeshm Island, who said the projectile was fired by the “American-Zionist enemy,” though so far the US hasn’t taken credit. President Trump was asked about the attack before boarding Air Force One to depart Ireland, and said, “I don’t want to say,” suggesting he had knowledge of the strike. PressTV also reported that the ship was struck by a “self-propelled underwater missile,” suggesting that it was some sort of torpedo or underwater drone.The US has bombed multiple Iranian commercial ships in recent weeks, including five oil tankers that it struck last week. Iran responded with heavy attacks on US military facilities in Jordan and also targeted multiple commercial ships in the region. The US has also bombed multiple ships as part of its enforcement of the blockade of Iranian ports, which has remained in effect since it was reimposed in July.

Satellite images show extent of damage to Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz - Satellite photos show the extent of the damage caused by a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a highly strategic network that transports crude oil from Abqaiq on the kingdom’s eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The images, released by Vantor and published via Getty Images on Sunday, show a bird’s-eye view of fire damage and extensive blackened areas in and around a pumping station on the pipeline.Saudi Arabia on Friday temporarily closed the roughly 750-mile system, or Petroline, as a precautionary measure following multiple attacks by drones launched from Iraq. Several people were injured in the strikes, the Saudi government said, with drones targeting a key stretch of the pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions.OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has relied on the East-West pipeline to shift crude exports away from the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz as fighting continues between the U.S. and Iran. The East-West pipeline is estimated to have a total design capacity of 7 million barrels per day, following recent expansions.The pipeline’s closure comes as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have ramped up attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and launched a lightning ground offensive to exercise control of another critically important oil choke point on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.There are concerns that the Houthis’ advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have significant ramifications for energy markets and global trade, particularly if the militant group ratchets up threats or attacks on Red Sea shipping.Vantor satellite image shows fire damage and extensive blackened areas in and around the East-West pipeline pumping station in Saudi Arabia following the September 11, 2026 drone attack and resulting fires. Vantor satellite image shows a closer view of fire-damaged structures and blackened ground at the East-West pipeline pumping station in Saudi Arabia following the September 11, 2026 drone attack and resulting fires.Oil prices have rallied in recent days amid deepening supply concerns in the Middle East.International benchmark Brent crude futures for November expiry rose 3.3% to $108.02 per barrel on Monday morning, extending gains after jumping more than 20% over the past month.U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for October expiry, meanwhile, traded nearly 3% higher at $102.98. The contract, which is up nearly 25% over the past month, surpassed $100 for the first time since May last week.

Saudi pipeline to remain out of service for weeks after drone attack - A key Saudi oil pipeline will remain largely out of service for weeks after being damaged in a drone attack, the Associated Press reported late Monday. Repairs to the pipeline, including damage at a major pumping facility, could take three to five weeks, according to two regional officials who spoke to the AP. The pipeline may continue operating partially during the repairs, although it is unclear how much oil could flow through it. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media. Earlier estimates suggested repairs could take up to six weeks, potentially putting around 4 percent of the global oil supply at risk, according to energy industry sources cited by Reuters. The news comes as Yemen’s Houthi rebels seized more islands along Red Sea shipping routes, adding to concerns about Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. Oil prices were already trading around 3 percent higher on Monday, on top of gains last week, as traders feared the shutdown could further tighten global crude supplies if it lasts more than a few days. The kingdom announced on Friday it had shut its East-West oil pipeline as a precaution following strikes from Iraq, likely by Iranian-backed militant groups. Riyadh did not reveal the extent of the damage or how long it will stay offline. The pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula has allowed Saudi Arabia to reroute 4 million barrels of oil per day to its port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, following the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran. With the pipeline out of service, Yanbu can only maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to industry sources, cited by Reuters. Newsweek has contacted the Saudi government for comment. “Oil is priced globally, so a disruption overseas reaches American families at the pump,” Dan Varroney, economic growth strategist, told Newsweek on Monday, “how long it lasts determines how much more damage it does.” Roukaya Ibrahim, chief strategist, commodities, at economic advisory firm BCA Research, told Newsweek, “the pipeline’s closure will likely increase the magnitude of the supply disruption, inject greater volatility into crude oil markets, and will have knock-on effects on refined product markets, which are already extremely tight.” This image from 2019 shows Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing plant. This image from 2019 shows Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing plant. Saudi Arabia shut down the pipeline after it was hit in an air attack, officials said Friday, confirming reports of fire and smoke along the key energy route. The Saudi Ministry of Energy said the closure was “precautionary” and its Foreign Ministry said several drones involved in the attack came from Iraq and gave Baghdad “an opportunity to take the necessary measures.” The Iraqi government condemned the assault and ordered an investigation. Sentinel-3 satellite imagery showed a black smoke plume over the pipeline route across the desert between Medina and Mahd adh-Dhahab. NASA’s FIRMS system also showed clustered thermal anomalies in the area.

Supertanker explodes after hitting mines on illegal route south of Hormuz: IRGC Navy - The Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says a supertanker that tried to force its way through a restricted zone south of the Strait of Hormuz exploded after striking naval mines, with the entire vessel now engulfed in flames. In a statement issued on Monday night, the IRGC Navy identified the ship as the Algaya, also listed as El Gaia, with IMO number 9325336. The IRGC Navy said the tanker attempted to transit an unauthorized and unsafe passage despite earlier warnings about the route's dangers. Efforts to contain the blaze failed, the statement added, leaving the ship fully on fire. The IRGC Navy stated that the incident was the predictable result of ignoring Iran’s maritime security regulations in a waterway placed under wartime control after the United States and the Israeli regime launched an unprovoked war of aggression against the Islamic Republic. “The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy firmly declares that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and remains under our smart control,” the force said. Iranian naval authorities have repeatedly cautioned shipping companies not to act on false American assurances about so-called safe corridors. They have said vessels that enter mined or prohibited areas, or that sail without coordination with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, put their crews and cargo at risk. Iranian officials have dismissed US propaganda designed to lure commercial traffic into unsafe waters and to conceal the failure of the American military to reopen a strait it does not control. The IRGC Navy has stressed that compliance with Iranian regulations is mandatory and that the fate of any vessel violating the security rules of Hormuz will be no different from that of ships already halted or set ablaze. Tehran has conditioned any change in the status of the strategic waterway on an end to US hostility, the lifting of the illegal naval and economic blockade against Iran, and a durable halt to aggression across the region. Until those conditions are met, the IRGC says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to violators and under Iranian surveillance and control.

Oil prices soar over 4% to 16-week high after strikes on Saudi pipeline, ships in West Asia | World News - Oil prices jumped over 4% to a 16-week high on Monday after new strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and attacks on ships in the Middle East compounded energy supply concerns. Brent futures rose $4.68, or 4.5%, to $109.29 per barrel at 10:15 a.m. EDT (1415 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.21, or 4.2%, to $104.26. That kept both benchmarks in technically overbought territory for more than a week and put Brent and WTI on track for their highest closes since May 19. Arab states in the Gulf called off a meeting with Iran planned for Monday, while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a new attack on Saudi Arabia after fighting that has extended the Middle East war to another theatre and further jeopardised global oil supplies. The Houthis said they fired dozens of missiles and drones on Monday at a Saudi military airbase in Khamis Mushait, near the border, hitting aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots. On Friday, an attack, which Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed fighters in Iraq, knocked out Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, which helps Saudi Arabia avoid the Strait of Hormuz by re-routing oil shipments to the Red Sea, threatening up to 4% of global oil supply. Before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, about a fifth of the world's oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a single digit per day at the weekend, preliminary ship tracking data showed on Monday, well below a 10-day average of 14. With the pipeline out of service, the Red Sea port of Yanbu will have to draw on storage, which is estimated to cover five to seven days of exports, according to three industry sources. "The relatively contained price reaction suggests the market still expects Saudi inventories to cushion exports in the near term, but if the disruption extends beyond the five-to-seven-day inventory cushion, that could change quickly," said Janiv Shah, oil markets analyst at Rystad. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis reached the island of Perim on Friday, tightening their control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran issued a list of 77 ships it said had violated its protocols for operating in Hormuz. "Short of stopping both oil-price-affecting wars and curing the global refinery (capacity) problem, our fraternity is wondering where an inoculation against $120 Brent can be found," said PVM analyst John Evans, pointing to Russian refinery outages and falling stockpiles. U.S. diesel futures were trading around $5.18 a gallon on Monday, putting the contract on track to top a record $5.14 set in April 2022. That futures price gain also boosted the heating oil crack spread, which measures refining profit margins, to an all-time high of around $114 a barrel, according to LSEG data. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is "hurting the world". Ukraine has said it is attacking Russian refineries to push up the cost to Moscow of continuing its invasion of Ukraine. Russia was the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to U.S. energy data, and is a member of the OPEC group of producing countries.

Oil Jumps as Attacks Halt Key Saudi Hormuz Strait Bypass  - Oil futures jumped Monday morning after drone strikes on Friday forced shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which transported 4 million bpd of crude oil to export terminals at the Red Sea, bypassing Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. By 7:53 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for November delivery was up $3.86 to trade near $108.47 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for October delivery rose $3.49 to $103.54 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery advanced $0.1071 to $5.0664 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures soared $0.1355 to $3.4427 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.46 points to 99.57 against a basket of foreign currencies. Exports from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu continued Monday as crude was being drawn from storage tanks. The port's maximum storage capacity of 35 million bbl would allow exports to continue at the current pace for around nine days. Tanks, however, are unlikely to be filled to the brim, shortening this already terse time window. Riyadh has not yet commented on how long it expects the pipeline to be shut for repairs, calling the shutdown "temporary" and a "precautionary measure". Reports suggested the pipeline was struck at several points along its route, and satellite images published over the weekend revealed extensive damage to at least two pump stations. Simultaneously, Houthi rebels on Friday took control of vital areas in and along Bab el-Mandeb, the waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The Iran-allied Yemeni militia has since July, when it declared a blockade of Saudi oil exports, launched repeated attacks on Saudi tankers, forcing shipments from Yanbu to Asia on a long and expensive detour around Africa. Damages to the pipeline feeding the port are now jeopardizing even these flows, and full Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb could keep buyers east of the Suez Canal choked off from most of this vital supply source even in the event of a swift restart of the East-West pipeline. The oil supply disruption from the Persian Gulf, meanwhile, showed no signs of easing. Multiple tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were struck over the weekend, and Muscat on Sunday said that planned talks with Tehran about a joint shipping lane, which on Friday weighed on prices, had been postponed.

Oil Market Gains as Saudi Pipeline Attack Raises Supply Concerns - The oil market ended the session higher on Monday but off of its highs after the market weighed the widening conflict in the Middle East against the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, with President Donald Trump stating that Iran wanted to reach a deal with the U.S. Over the weekend, Gulf Arab countries postponed a planned meeting with Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched attacks on Saudi Arabia. On Friday, Saudi Arabia blamed the Houthis for striking its East-West Pipeline, a key route that allows Gulf oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market was well supported on the opening on Sunday evening following the weekend developments in the Middle East. It continued on an upward trend and rallied to a high of $104.95 early in the morning. However, the market pared its gains following President Trump’s comments regarding Iran’s desire to make a deal to end the war. The crude market sold off to a low of $100.53 and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled up $1.34 at $101.39 and the November Brent contract settled up $1.07 at $105.68. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22 points at $4.9615 and the RB market settling up 99 points at $3.3171. According to the DOE, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 285 million barrels last week, the lowest level since November 1982. Saudi oil buyers and traders said Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports if it does not restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4% of global supply. According to industry estimates, Yanbu storage capacity stands at around 35 million barrels, with Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir able to store 18 million and 20 million barrels, respectively. Sources said stocks are not full and will ultimately run out without the East-West pipeline resuming operations. Bloomberg reported that if repairs are needed on the East-West pipeline, Saudi Aramco has an exceptional track record. It noted that in 2019, when attacks claimed by Houthi militants shut in 5% of global production, Saudi Arabia restored its output to where it was before the strike within a month. It also managed to bounce back quickly from an earlier attack on the pipeline this year. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 494,000 bpd of capacity for the week ending September 18th, decreasing available refining capacity by 44,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 544,000 bpd in the week ending September 25th. Exxon Mobil’s 264,000 bpd refinery in Joliet, Illinois, experienced a power outage on Sunday afternoon. The cause of the power outage is under investigation. BP’s 440,000 bpd oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana on Monday said labor contract negotiations are underway. BP also stated that it is conducting planned operational activities at the refinery over the next several days.

Oil Prices Rise on Saudi Pipeline Outage and Rising Red Sea Risks - Oil prices continued to rise early on Tuesday, rallying by 1.7% in Asian trade, as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are expanding their control over the west coast along the Red Sea, while the attacks on a key Saudi onshore oil pipeline triggered concerns about additional disruptions to already severely disrupted oil supply from the Middle East.  As of publication, Brent Crude prices were up by 1.67% in Asian trade at $107.45 per barrel. WTI Crude held above the $ 103-a-barrel mark it hit on Monday. The U.S. crude oil benchmark rose by 1.9% to $103.26.As it has become customary when oil prices rally above $100 a barrel, U.S. President Donald Trump posted late on Monday that “The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage - The concept of which we are open to.”Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, disputed President Trump’s claim, saying, “Don’t get distracted by the U.S. president’s mixed signals - from 'no negotiations' to 'we’re ready to talk.' The stakes around oil and the straits have changed. Damage control won’t stop what’s coming. No talks until Iran’s conditions are met. Period!”As hopes of talks fade, so did hopes of a wider regional agreement about the Strait of Hormuz. A meeting that was due to be held in Oman on Monday and had to involve Iran and other Persian Gulf states has been postponed.Last week's attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, a vital conduit to redirect the Kingdom’s oil exports away from the Strait of Hormuz, has forced the Saudis to shut down the pipeline. This has put further upward pressure on oil prices as the market fears the pipeline disruption could last for weeks and oil for export at Yanbu’s storage tanks may run out before the pipeline restores full operations.

Oil Steady Above $100 Bbl on Escalating Houthi Attacks  (DTN) -- Crude futures retreated from session highs Tuesday morning, remaining largely steady since the prior session's close, as escalating Houthi offensive actions in Saudi Arabia continue to maintain a formidable geopolitical risk premium across energy markets. By 9:20 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery rose $0.29, or 0.27%, to $101.68 bbl. The session high was $104.21. ICE Brent for November delivery moved up $0.21, or 0.19%, to $105.89 bbl. It reached as high as $108.43 earlier in the day. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery climbed $0.1584, or 3.06%, to $5.1199 gallon. It peaked at $5.1631 during the session. RBOB for October advanced $0.0384, or 1.03%, to $3.3555 gallon. The high for the day was $3.4080. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.199 points to 99.305 against a basket of currencies. The Iran-aligned Houthi militia launched fresh strikes against Saudi infrastructure Monday while consolidating control along critical maritime positions on the Red Sea. The tactical expansion has enabled sustained disruptions against commercial shipping transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait, directly threatening regional crude flows following last week's forced shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Market analysts project the compounding infrastructure damage could disrupt an additional 4% to 5% of total global oil supplies. Their expectation is that a solid floor will persist for crude prices in the $100 bbl territory until clearer visibility is available on Saudi export recovery timelines. Diplomatic efforts also remain stalled as planned talks between Iran and Persian Gulf states on safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz were postponed without a rescheduled date. Political friction further heightened as Tehran rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that it was seeking a diplomatic resolution with Washington, with Iranian officials declaring there will be no truce until Washington adhered to terms of a lapsed June ceasefire agreement. Oil market participants are also focused on supply data due at 4:30 p.m. EDT from the American Petroleum Institute for the week ended Sept. 11, which will serve as a precursor to official inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. In the prior week ended Sept. 4, the API reported a modest crude stock drawdown of 300,000 bbl, whereas official EIA data showed a slightly larger commercial crude draw of 400,000 bbl. Analysts expect the upcoming EIA report to show a further crude inventory decline of around 1.3 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 11, driven by steady refinery utilization and strong export demand. Inventory numbers aside, crude futures are taking directions from broader financial markets as investors await the Federal Reserve's first anticipated rate hike in three years as the central bank tries to clamp down on persistent inflation. The Fed is expected to add 25 basis points to benchmark U.S. rates at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, bringing primary lending rates now in a range of between 3.50% and 3.75% to between 3.75% and 4.00%.

Oil Market Jumps as Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Disrupts Exports -- The oil market continued to trend higher on Tuesday amid the increasing concerns over crude supplies from the Middle East following the recent attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The market remains supported as it awaits for news on how long Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline will remain offline after it was struck by the Houthi militants on Friday. The crude market retraced some of Monday’s move lower as it traded to $104.21 in early morning trading. The market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $101.21 only to bounce off its low and extend its gains amid the news that oil loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu have been suspended following the shut in of its East-West Pipeline on Friday. The market was also supported in light of the news that operations were suspended at two oil fields and a pumping station in Libya following the closure of a valve on the main Hamada-Zawiya crude loading pipeline. Libya’s National Oil Corp said it may declare force majeure if the valve remains closed or if other fields are subjected to similar forced shutdowns. The market rallied a high of $106.75 in afternoon trading. The October WTI contract settled up $4.44 at $105.83 and November Brent contract settled up $3.07 at $108.75. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 30.05 cents at $526.20 and the RB market settling up 14.81 cents at $346.52. U.S. Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, said that a ban on U.S. oil or fuel exports would be unlikely to help lower energy prices for consumers amidst the Iran war. He said that bans on oil, gasoline or diesel exports could lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, which could hurt consumers in states like California, which depends partially on energy imports. Shipping traffic at the Strait of Hormuz fell further at the start of this week after attacks intensified in the Middle East. Preliminary data from Kpler showed that commodity vessel transits at Hormuz totaled four on Monday, down from ten during the previous day. Kpler data also showed that in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 21 commodity vessels transited on Monday, down from 28 during the previous day. U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said oil should be flowing through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline within days. According to the Associated Press, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline is expected to be mostly offline for three to five weeks. Oil loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu have been suspended, days after the world’s biggest crude exporter closed its East-West pipeline due to an attack by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. Saudi Arabia has informed its European customers that some late-September crude oil cargoes will be cancelled. Saudi Arabia closed its East-West Pipeline due to an attack last week and is challenged by Yemeni Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Libya’s National Oil Corp said operations were suspended at three oil fields after a member of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, which secures Libya’s oil facilities, closed a valve on the main Hamada-Zawiya crude loading pipeline. The NOC said it may declare force majeure if the valve remains closed or if other fields are subjected to similar forced shutdowns.

Oil Prices Fall as US Inventories Rise --Oil prices fell on Wednesday after an unexpected increase in US crude inventories, as investors assessed supply risks following Saudi Arabia’s suspension of oil loading operations at Yanbu port after an attack on its East-West pipeline leading to the Red Sea. Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 0.86%, to $107.82 a barrel by 0028 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 97 cents, or 0.92%, to $104.86 a barrel. Both benchmark contracts closed more than $3 higher on Tuesday, reaching their highest levels since May 19, after the suspension of loading operations at Yanbu heightened supply concerns and Saudi Arabia reduced oil shipments to Europe. Market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week. US crude inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels in the week ended September 11, the sources said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a decline of about 1.6 million barrels. Sources said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia suspended oil loading operations at Yanbu after the world’s largest crude oil exporter shut its East-West pipeline following a Friday attack by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. Saudi Arabia uses the pipeline to divert nearly 4 million barrels per day, or about 4% of global oil supplies, to the Red Sea port. The US Department of Energy said crude oil flows through the vital pipeline linking eastern and western Saudi Arabia were expected to resume within days. However, sources who spoke to Reuters offered varying estimates of how long the pipeline could remain out of service. One source said repairs could take five to six weeks, while another said partial pumping could resume sooner as repair work continues. In Libya, the National Oil Corporation said operations at three oil fields had been suspended after protesting members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard closed a valve on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil export pipeline. However, NOC Chairman Masoud Suleiman told Reuters that Libya’s oil production had been only minimally affected by the shutdowns and remained at around 1.4 million barrels per day.

Oil Pulls Back as Saudi Arabia Finds Alternative Export Route, but Supply Risks Keep Crude Above $100 -  As of approximately 5:31 a.m. MDT Wednesday, WTI was trading around US$104.63 per barrel, compared with Tuesday’s official settlement of US$105.83. That puts WTI US$1.20 lower, or 1.13%, making today’s move clearly down rather than relatively flat. Brent was approximately US$108.16, versus Tuesday’s US$108.75 settlement, a decline of US$0.59, or 0.54%. Tuesday had been another powerful session: WTI jumped US$4.44, or 4.38%, while Brent gained US$3.07, or 2.9%, as suspended Saudi loadings from Yanbu and cancelled European cargoes intensified supply concerns. WTI remains on the October 2026 front-month contract, while Brent is on its current front-month delivery. There is no significant rollover distortion affecting today’s day-over-day comparisons. The biggest development this morning is Saudi Arabia’s effort to work around damage to its East-West Pipeline and the suspension of loadings at Yanbu. Saudi Arabia is offering Asian refiners additional crude through ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar, Oman, providing another avenue for exports after drone attacks damaged the pipeline connecting eastern Saudi production with the Red Sea. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the development was easing fears that the disruption could become even larger. That has taken some of Tuesday’s geopolitical premium out of crude. However, the underlying transportation problem has not disappeared. Visible vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to only four Tuesday from seven Monday, versus a recent 10-day average of 18. Before the Iran conflict, the Strait carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Key Market Risks or CatalystsU.S. inventories are providing another bearish influence. American Petroleum Institute figures showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly increased by 7.1 million barrels during the week ended September 11, compared with analyst expectations for a roughly 1.6-million-barrel decline. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. But refined-product markets remain extremely tight. European gasoil futures reached record territory Tuesday, while the U.S. national average diesel price recently exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time. Asian diesel refining margins have also climbed above $87 per barrel, an all-time high. Middle East escalation remains the biggest upside risk. Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are creating another potential threat to energy shipping, while Saudi forces have intensified strikes against Houthi positions. Diplomacy offers the main potential bearish catalyst. China has called on Iran and the United States to resume negotiations and reopen Hormuz, while Citi expects tensions to support prices in the near term but sees potential normalization later in the fourth quarter. Saudi Arabia’s ability to redirect some crude through Oman reduces the immediate danger of a severe Saudi export collapse. The unexpected U.S. inventory build is also putting downward pressure on prices. But with WTI still around $105, Brent above $108, Hormuz vessel traffic deeply depressed and diesel markets exceptionally tight, the fundamental supply-risk premium remains substantial. The key question is now whether Saudi Arabia can maintain enough alternative exports to prevent physical shortages while its damaged pipeline system is repaired. A reliable Tuesday WCS physical-market settlement was not available from the public sources reviewed by publication time, so this report will not manufacture a same-day WCS number. The latest verified WCS settlement remains Monday’s October-delivery Hardisty differential of US$17.35 per barrel below WTI, according to brokerage CalRock. Monday WTI settled at US$101.39, implying a WCS price of approximately US$84.04 per barrel. The previous Friday differential was US$16.75 below WTI, meaning the latest verified WCS discount widened by US$0.60 per barrel. The widening was linked partly to the shutdown of Exxon Mobil’s 264,000-barrel-per-day Joliet, Illinois refinery, an important processor of Canadian heavy crude. Because Wednesday WTI is now around US$104.63, combining that live price with Monday’s WCS assessment would create a misleading apparent spread. The appropriate latest verified comparison therefore remains Monday WCS of approximately US$84.04 versus Monday WTI of US$101.39, for a US$17.35 discount. Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.

WTI Holds Losses As Crude Production Hits Record High, SPR/Cushing Near 'Tank Bottoms' - Distillates have gone vertical again and physical markets remain incredibly tight, according to Goldman's Rich Privorotsky. Saudi’s East-West pipeline disruption forced the suspension of Yanbu loadings and cancellation of some European cargoes, with European physical crude trading north of $130 in places yesterday. Despite all that, there are reports of more visible signs of cargoes moving through the Strait. "Iraq's seaborne crude oil exports from its southern Gulf terminals averaged 3.16 million barrels/day in the first 10 days of September, nearing the prewar levels of 3.335 million b/d recorded in February" - Platts. But for now, the market is watching inventories... API:

• Crude +7.1mm
• Cushing -246k
• Gasoline +1.5mm
• Distillates +1.6mm

DOE

• Crude -640k (-1.4mm exp)
• Cushing -342k
• Gasoline +794k
• Distillates +1.58mm

US crude stocks drew down inventories for the 3rd week in a row (though only by a de minimus 640k) but drastically different from the 7.1mm build that API reported.. Cushing stocks fell again, putting tank bottoms in view... The Trump admin drained the SPR once again, but the 403k draw was the smallest since the war began... ...as 'tank bottoms' loom for the reserve... US crude production was steady at record highs... Refiner crude runs fell in most US regions last week but remain at the highest seasonal level since 2018. Runs last week were less than 100,000 barrels a day below reaching the highest seasonal level ever, continued evidence of how hard the US fuel-making fleet is running. WTI was trading around $103 ahead of the official data To close, we go back to where we started with Goldman's Rich Privorotsky noting that while he admits to having no special insight in Energy, like everyone else, he's trying to focus on incentives. "Economically, it is rational for all sides to try to find a pathway toward a deal, but I have very little certainty around timing/outcome...it does seems more is getting out of the strait then people appreciate." With gas prices at record highs for this time of year, President Trump has lots of incentives... Especially with the odds of a Democratic Sweep in November soaring...

Oil Sinks 3% on Saudi Pipeline Restart Plan, Fed Hike (DTN) -- Oil prices tumbled 3% Wednesday, marking their sharpest drop in three weeks, on reports that Saudi Arabia could restore within days half of its East-West pipeline capacity jeopardized by Houthi militia attacks. The first U.S. interest rate hike in three years also weighed as businesses expected higher capital stress from a Federal Reserve that could raise borrowing costs again before the end of the year to combat surging inflation. NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $3.41, or 3.23%, to settle at $102.43 bbl, after tumbling to $100.97 during the session. It was WTI's sharpest one-day drop since Aug. 25. ICE Brent for November delivery moved down $3.04, or 2.82%, to $105.71 bbl. The session low was $104. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased 2.24 cents, or 0.57%, to finish at $5.2396 gallon. It bottomed at $5.1227 for the day. RBOB for October advanced 1.92cts, or 0.55%, to end the session at $3.4844 gallon. It touched a session low of $3.3891 earlier. By 2:45 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.469 points to 99.810 against a basket of currencies, reacting to the Fed rate hike. Energy futures sank on reports that Saudi engineers could bring some 2 million to 2.5 million bpd of throughput back online along the damaged 7 million bpd East-West pipeline. This was on top of ship-to-ship crude transfers off Oman's Sohar port overseen by Saudi authorities determined to keep Asian contract deliveries moving. Saudi Arabia had suspended operations at its Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu earlier this week following strikes on the East-West pipeline by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. It also canceled multiple European cargo deliveries, sparking fears that the pipeline outage could last for weeks. The initial Saudi actions had boosted pricing for middle distillates, the most distressed part of the barrel since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in March. On Wednesday, the diesel crack spread for U.S. refiners reached a record high of $117.97 bbl, while European gasoil futures neared all-time peaks. Some of the concerns over distillate supply were alleviated after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that U.S. inventories for the product rose for a third consecutive week last week, climbing 1.6 million bbl to 107.9 million bbl. Gasoline stocks also rose by 800,000 bbl during the week ended Sept. 11, the EIA reported. The headline draw of 600,000 bbl in commercial crude stocks -- versus the 7.1 million bbl build reported a day ago by the American Petroleum Institute for the same week -- did little for bullish market sentiment. While refinery utilization dipped 1.0%, it remained at an elevated 96.8%, showing that the U.S. petroleum industry was doing its most to push out product. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it has raised U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing key U.S. lending rates to a range of between 3.75% and 4%. It was the first monetary tightening since July 2023 by the central bank, with analysts expecting another hike at the Fed's December rate decision.

Oil Prices Extend Declines as Supply Concerns Ease - Oil prices fell in early trading on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude shipments through Oman, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. By 0049 GMT, Brent crude futures had fallen $1.24, or 1.2%, to $104.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped $1.14, or 1.1%, to $101.29 a barrel. Both contracts fell by around $3 on Wednesday. “Concerns about tight supplies have eased somewhat following reports that Saudi Arabia will ship crude through Oman,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief analyst at Nissan Securities Investment. He added that expectations of progress toward easing tensions in the Middle East ahead of a US-China summit next week were also limiting price gains. Sources familiar with the matter said Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes for delivery to Asian refineries through ship-to-ship transfers off the port of Sohar, Oman. The move is helping ease some pressure on global supplies caused by attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. Oil prices had risen to their highest level in nearly four months earlier this week after shipping industry sources said crude shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea had been suspended and Riyadh had canceled some deliveries to European customers following attacks on the pipeline supplying Yanbu with crude. Yanbu became the main outlet for Saudi oil exports after Iran began closing the Strait of Hormuz following the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran in late February. Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies passed through the strait. According to assessments by three sources in the oil and security sectors, two pumping stations serving the East-West pipeline were damaged in an attack last week. The timeline for repairs remains unclear. Despite Thursday’s decline in oil prices, concerns over a further escalation of the war in the Middle East remain. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell by less than expected last week. EIA data showed that US crude inventories declined by around 640,000 barrels, compared with a forecast for a 1.62 million-barrel decrease in a Reuters poll of energy market analysts.

Oil Prices Slide as Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude via Oman -- Crude oil prices, which dipped yesterday, extended their losses earlier today following reports that Saudi Arabia will be exporting more oil through Oman while the East-West pipeline is repaired.At 12:20 AM CDT, Brent crude was trading at $105.89 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $102.39 per barrel. Earlier in the week, Brent topped $108 briefly, and WTI spiked to over $103 per barrel. The spike followed the latest Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, notably the East-West pipeline that was sending crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where it was exported to global markets.Following the attack, which prompted the shutdown of the pipeline, worry about oil supply security spiked in sync with benchmark oil prices. Those fears got additional momentum from reports that Saudi Aramco had cancelled several oil cargoes that were supposed to be shipped to European buyers this month. Further fuelling fears of shortages, Kpler reported that oil in storage at Yanbu port has fallen below 15 million barrels, from close to 21 million barrels in July. This would cover only a few days of exports at current rates (3.5 million barrels daily).Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it would start redirecting more oil to its Persian Gulf ports, which calmed traders, as Aramco would, reportedly, avoid the Strait of Hormuz via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.The STS transfers of spot crude cargoes have been perfected in recent months by the United Arab Emirates, whose national oil company ADNOC has offered prompt supply in multiple tenders both within the Persian Gulf and the Fujairah-Sohar range outside the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains paralysed, with the latest strike on a vessel in the waterway happening just a few days ago. Tanker traffic rates remain in the single digits.

Oil Prices Extend Decline on Saudi Supply Recovery Hopes -- Oil prices continued to retreat Thursday morning on easing supply concerns amid reports of Saudi Arabia establishing workarounds to the recent supply disruption from the Red Sea. By 9:12 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for November delivery was down $3.34 to trade near $102.49 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for October delivery fell $2.11 to $100.32 bbl. In early morning trade, the contract slipped below $100 bbl for the first time since Friday. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery retreated $0.1590 to $5.0875 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures slid $0.0663 to $3.4187 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.165 points to 99.815 against a basket of foreign currencies. Reports on Wednesday suggested Saudi Arabia was offering more crude oil cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman to compensate for the loss of exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. Shuttling oil to tankers outside of the Persian Gulf has been one of the ways Middle Eastern oil was able to bypass Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The 7 million bpd capacity East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia's primary workaround, was forced shut after being damaged by multiple drone attacks Friday, cutting Yanbu off its only source of crude oil. Estimated storage levels at the port were enough to sustain exports for a few days before loadings were suspended on Wednesday. Rumors that the country was seeking to restore around half of these flows within the coming days by bypassing the damaged pipeline sections also weighed on prices. Riyadh continued to keep the market in the dark about a timeline for the repairs needed to return to full capacity, but experts estimate that this could take weeks to months. U.S. government data released Wednesday, meanwhile, showed domestic refiners were still running far above the typical seasonal pace amid near-record high diesel cracks stemming from the global refined fuels supply crunch. The Energy Information Administration said distillate fuel oil inventories rose for a third straight week, but were still tight by historical standards, lagging year-ago levels by 13.5%.

Oil Market Retreats as Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude Through Oman  -  The oil market on Thursday extended Wednesday losses as reports of additional Saudi crude cargoes leaving Oman’s Sohar port eased supply concerns. Saudi Arabia is offering more crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship to ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, helping to offset some of the disruption caused by attacks on the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. The market posted a high of $102.47 in overnight trading before it continued its downward trend. The crude market extended its losses to over $3.30 as it sold off to a low of $99.10. The market later bounced off its low and retraced its earlier losses as it traded back towards its high ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down 52 cents at $101.91 and the November Brent contract settled down $101 at $104.82. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 13.26 cents at $5.1139 and the RB market settling up 2.23 cents at $3.5073. U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped an end to the war against Iran was near, as the conflict escalated with Saudi aircraft striking Yemen and Houthi fighters launching drones and missiles at Saudi cities. President Donald Trump reiterated his previous comments stating “They want to make a deal. We’ll see how that works out.” He also said he had heard from Iran “directly”, without elaborating. Axios reported late on Wednesday that President Trump was expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday to discuss the next steps in the conflict. Axios said President Trump would meet with leaders or foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. Preliminary ship-tracking data showed that commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just three ships on Wednesday, down from 12 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of about 17. In the Red Sea, vessel crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait eased to 21 on Wednesday, compared with 24 vessels a day earlier. According to Environmental Protection Agency data, the U.S. generated 1.29 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits in August, about the same as in July. Biodiesel blending credits (D4) fell to 693 million, from 796 million in July. U.S. Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy, said the Trump administration is temporarily relaxing rules on hours of service by truck drivers handling gasoline and diesel, citing supply and cost concerns. The 90-day waiver takes effect on Wednesday, allowing drivers to operate up to 16 hours within a 24-hour window, versus 14 under existing rules, so long as they take required rest breaks. He said the waiver was because short-term supply chain disruptions could delay gasoline and diesel shipments, which could affect freight deliveries. The move comes as the US average diesel price hit a record of $6.29/gallon, up from $3.74 a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration, as the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries squeeze supply. The department’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said it took the action “in anticipation of the need for greater hours-of-service flexibility.” The department said it aimed to “respond to global supply disruptions, anticipated increases in the demand for gasoline and diesel fuels in the late summer and fall.”

World oil prices are falling amid Saudi Arabia’s efforts to resume exports | УНН --Oil prices are falling for the third consecutive day amid Saudi Arabia's efforts to resume exports after the "East-West" oil pipeline was damaged. The market is ignoring the latest escalation in the Middle East, although a barrel of Brent is still holding above $104, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains risky. Reuters reports, UNN writes. Brent crude oil futures fell by 79 cents, or 0.75%, to $104 a barrel as of 03:19 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by 70 cents, or 0.69%, to $101.20 a barrel. On Thursday, both benchmark grades closed down by approximately 1%. Brent prices are heading for their first weekly decline in the past three weeks (down 0.5%), while WTI is on track to rise by 1.2%. Markets largely ignored concerns about new threats to supplies, even though Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi militants exchanged new strikes across the border on Thursday, expanding the front of the war in the Middle East - the publication emphasizes. Earlier this week, prices rose to nearly four-month highs after sources reported a suspension of oil shipments at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export hub on the Red Sea, while Riyadh canceled some deliveries to Europe after its "East-West" pipeline was damaged in an attack last week. However, prices cooled amid reports that Saudi Arabia aims to restore about half of the capacity of its "East-West" oil pipeline within several days, while also offering more crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off the Omani port of Sohar. Nevertheless, oil prices are still holding above $100 a barrel as markets await confirmation of a clear improvement in the supply situation, analysts say. Nonetheless, transporting oil through the region remains risky. The naval forces of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that a Togo-flagged tanker came under attack on Thursday while attempting to make an "illegal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media reported on Friday morning.

Oil Futures Diverge to End Volatile Trading Week (DTN) - Oil futures were mixed Friday (9/18) morning, with Brent crude edging lower on easing supply concerns around Saudi crude oil exports, while WTI and ULSD futures moved higher. After a volatile and turbulent trading week, most contracts were eyeing small weekly gains. By 10:00am ET, ICE Brent for November delivery was down $0.16 to trade near $104.66 bbl, while NYMEX WTI for October delivery advanced $1.04 to $102.95 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery rose $0.0543 to $5.1682 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0258 to $3.4815 gallon. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.235 points to 100.22 against a basket of foreign currencies. Supply concerns sparked by last weekend's shutdown of Saudi Arabia's 7 million bpd capacity East-West pipeline eased throughout the week as the kingdom sought to reassure buyers that it will offer additional cargoes via alternative routes. Reports that the pipeline can soon restart at half capacity also weighed on oil prices. Saudi Aramco reportedly suspending term contracts to Europe next month, however, dampened these bearish effects. The WTI contract for October delivery, meanwhile, continued to diverge from Brent futures on its penultimate trading day, leading the spread between the two crude benchmarks to plummet to $1.5 bbl in early morning trade, its lowest since May. A similar story played out with ULSD futures, reflecting the outsized impact the Hormuz supply disruption has had on refined fuels compared to crude oil. While crude oil flows through the now porous blockade have risen from war-time lows, fuel exports from the Persian Gulf, lacking alternative outlets and stymied by damages to refineries in the region, remained depressed at around a quarter of pre-war levels. The resulting divergence in crude oil and product prices, especially for fuels from the middle of the barrel, has since mid-June put ULSD cracks on a precipitous rise dwarfing the one in 2022 in both size and duration, with the differential on Wednesday (9/16) soaring to an all-time high $117.923 bbl. This continued to incentivize refiners to run as hard as possible and defer non-essential maintenance. U.S. Energy Information Administration data published this week showed unusually high refining activity for this time of year, with domestic refiners last week utilizing nearly 97% of operable capacity, compared to the 90-92% range typical for this time of year.

Oil slides after China asks Iran to limit Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities   (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday after China, acting on a request from Saudi Arabia, asked Iran to limit attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi oil infrastructure that have threatened a second oil export route in the Middle ‌East. Brent crude futures settled at $104.87 a barrel, down 95 cents, or 0.93%. US West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $100.30 a barrel, down $1.61, or 1.58%. Oil prices have moved up steadily in the last few weeks as the US and Iran resumed attacks on each other and the Iran-aligned Houthis also stepped up their military activities. The recent action, coupled with refining capacity issues worldwide, has pushed up the price of key fuels like diesel in major markets. Currently, retail diesel in the United States costs $6.45 a gallon, according to AAA data, a record, while retail gasoline averages $4.47 a gallon, at a time ⁠of the year when gasoline prices are usually declining. IIR Energy, a refining data provider, said on Friday that US refining capacity in production was expected to fall next week by 371,000 barrels per day (bpd). "Right now it's not a supply problem; it's a refining problem," Despite the reported intervention from China, analysts say the outlook for coming months remains murky. JPMorgan on Thursday said it does not have a clear baseline view for oil markets for the first time since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran in February. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely cut off, with just four commodities vessels passing through the strait on Thursday, below the 10-day average of about 16, preliminary shipping data showed on Friday. Prices climbed to close to four-month highs earlier in the week after sources said crude loadings at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had been suspended and Riyadh cancelled some deliveries to Europe ‌after its ⁠East-West pipeline was damaged in an attack last week. State-run Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refining customers they will receive no crude oil next month following an attack on Saudi Arabia's key pipeline to the Red Sea, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis exchanged fresh strikes across their border on Thursday and Yemenis took to boats in the Red Sea to escape fighting, as the spreading Middle East war created new threats to supply. Three pumping stations serving the East-West Pipeline ⁠in Saudi Arabia were damaged in an attack last week — one more than assessed previously — with a repair timeline unclear, according to satellite imagery and three industry sources. Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore about half the capacity of the East-West oil pipeline within days, though sources interviewed by Reuters have given varying estimates of how long it will take to reopen ⁠the pipeline and return crude flows to normal. "The key question is whether physical flows can normalise and what the timeline could be. If we see a sustained improvement in Hormuz traffic, some of the geopolitical premium can unwind further," The US and Iran have held ⁠no peace talks since the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June. The war will come up for discussion at the United Nations General Assembly next week, and an Iranian delegation will be able to attend, according to the US State Department.

Red flags emerge for oil prices in Europe and China - On the surface, the oil market looks relatively calm. The oil futures market, which most investors watch to see where prices are heading, has actually been down for the past three days. But there are new signs of stress in the market, and the warnings from oil executives about a looming shortage are only growing louder. U.S. gasoline prices hit $4.47 on Friday, up 17 cents in just one week. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at a conference this week that the oil market’s “buffers” are running out, leaving oil buyers increasingly vulnerable to price spikes. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is down to 285 million barrels, versus its full capacity of over 700 million. The reserve can only be drawn down by about 30 million more barrels before it hits limits imposed by Congress that make emptying it more legally complicated. As the market’s safety mechanisms disappear, escalations in the Iran war are having an outsize impact. One of Saudi Arabia’s pipelines was damaged in an attack last week, causing the kingdom to cancel planned shipments to European refiners, according to multiple media reports. Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, declined to comment about the reports. Europe normally gets about 600,000 to 800,000 of the 14 million barrels of oil it uses per day from Saudi Arabia. Refiners secure much of their supply through long-term deals. Without guaranteed Saudi oil, refiners have to buy more on the volatile spot oil market, which is already showing signs of strain. Spot prices for Brent crude, the global benchmark measured in Europe’s North sea, were up to $137 per barrel on Friday, $33 above the Brent futures price that is normally considered the most accurate price of oil. Until a couple of weeks ago, the spot and futures prices were trading in lockstep, often within a dollar of each other. When the prices decouple like they are today, it can be a sign that the stress of the day-to-day oil market isn’t yet being reflected in trading markets. That doesn’t mean that oil prices will invariably rise—the market could balance in the other direction too, assuming the Saudi pipeline is repaired sooner than expected or the Iran war comes to an end. But it does raise the risk of futures prices moving higher. Europe isn’t the only place where there are signs of anxiety in the oil market. The price of Shanghai crude on the futures market has also spiked higher, exceeding $130 per barrel earlier this week and trading around $115 on Friday, according to data from Refinitiv. China has been a wild card in oil markets since the war began. There is less transparent data about the Chinese market, so analysts have had trouble predicting what the country might do next. For much of the war, China has helped balance the market by reducing imports of oil. It has relied instead on its substantial stockpiles, estimated before the war at 1.2 billion barrels, or enough to fully cover about 100 days of normal imports. Chinese residents also appear to have reduced consumption considerably, which has allowed the country to reduce its reliance on imports. So far, China has used 147 million barrels of its inventories, JP Morgan strategist Natasha Kaneva estimates. One way to explain the recent increase in Chinese oil futures is that China’s demand is rising at a time when supply is scarce. It appears China is ramping up its oil imports again, writes Tim Rezvan, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which is one reason he’s increasingly bullish on oil into next year. Rezvan thinks that prices, and the stocks of producers can keep rising even after a very strong year. “We view this latest attack [on the Saudi pipeline] as a significant escalation that raises the ceiling on ‘worst case’ outlooks for global markets,” he wrote.

Iran postpones talks with neighbouring countries; cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz reportedly struck | CBC News - An Iranian cargo vessel was struck early Sunday off Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media said, and a plan by Tehran to brief neighbouring countries on its contested efforts to manage shipping in the strait was postponed. The attack, which the reports said killed one and wounded four, drew attention back to the strait after threats to shipping in the region intensified last week when Iran-backed Houthi rebels captured an island on the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency quoted the Qeshm governor as blaming a "terrorist enemy" for Sunday's attack. There was no immediate comment by the U.S. military, which has struck Iranian-flagged vessels during its blockade of Iranian ports and faces a new threat from Iranian ballistic missiles launched at its warships. Qeshm Island, about 22 kilometres from the port city of Bandar Abbas, is key to Iran asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. Hours before the attack, Iran's government remained defiant. "Our people can't be bullied into submission. Iran won't surrender," President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post. U.S. Central Command says it carried out fresh strikes on Iran, claiming it was retaliation for Iran preparing to launch sea mines from rockets into the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump disagreed, saying on Sunday that Iran "wants to make a deal so bad" that "they're calling constantly." Trump spoke at his golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, where he was attending a tournament. Later, when asked by a reporter whether the U.S. struck the Iranian cargo vessel early Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: "I don't want to say." He then boarded Air Force One to head back to Washington. Iran aims to brief region on strait Iran had said foreign ministers from regional countries would meet Monday in Oman to discuss efforts by Iran and Oman, located on the other side of the strait, to manage shipping on it. But the foreign minister of Oman, Badr Albusaidi, said on X late Sunday that the meeting had been postponed "in the interests of consensus." Iran and Oman agreed to postpone the talks "at the request of some regional countries," said Mohammad Ali Bak, an official in Iran's Foreign Ministry who was quoted by IRNA on X. Video U.S. and Iran trade strikes, Trump says war will end 'immediately after election' Commercial ship traffic remains low in the Strait of Hormuz as attacks continue on what was seen as an international waterway before the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations monitor said Sunday that a vessel was hit by a projectile while transiting the strait, though it wasn't clear if this was referring to the attack Iran had reported off Qeshm. The monitor said a severe fire had broken out and that local authorities were evacuating those on board.

Iran: Regional foreign ministers meeting in Oman called off at Saudi Arabias request  -Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says a meeting of foreign ministers of regional states scheduled in Oman to discuss arrangements for safe commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was canceled at Saudi Arabia’s request. Addressing reporters at a weekly press conference on Monday, Baghaei said Iran and Oman have finalized an agreement concerning maritime routes. “The understanding between Iran and Oman, as two littoral states, has been finalized. In consultation with Oman, we will decide on the next step, including how to announce or register the understanding,” he said. He noted that the Iran-Oman understanding regarding the security of maritime routes was the result of weeks of negotiations between the two countries. Iran does not make decisions on “highly sensitive and complicated” security-related issues based on a single factor, Baghaei added, stressing that Tehran should not call its own rational and forward-looking actions into question because of the ill-advised actions or broken commitments of others. Baghaei said the planned meeting in Oman was an “opportunity” created by Tehran and Muscat, saying regional countries were expected to recognize and make use of it. He reiterated that Iran has consistently made efforts to help resolve regional issues and has demonstrated that commitment in practice. “We well know that the continuation of war in the region among Muslim countries has only one winner, and that winner is no one other than the Zionist regime (Israel), which seeks to prolong tensions and insecurity among Muslim countries in our region,” the Iranian spokesperson pointed out. The Strait of Hormuz is a major global energy chokepoint, with roughly one-fifth of global oil demand passing through the waterway. Iran has maintained heightened restrictions on navigation since the start of the US-Israeli military aggression against the country on Feb. 28, citing security concerns and the need to safeguard its sovereignty. Iran and Oman have been engaged in negotiations for nearly three months over arrangements for safe navigation through the strategic waterway. On August 25, the two countries announced discussions on a phased framework that would initially establish a temporary joint maritime corridor, alongside a joint mine-clearance project. The framework is aimed at restoring safe navigation while preserving the sovereignty and sovereign rights of coastal states. Technical talks are expected to continue toward a permanent navigation corridor and an agreement on the future administration of the waterway. Mohammad Alibek, Director General of the Persian Gulf Department at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said on Sunday that the meeting of foreign ministers from Persian Gulf littoral states, originally scheduled for Monday in Oman’s Salalah, has been postponed to a later date following a joint decision by Iran and Oman, at the request of certain regional countries, stressing that Tehran remains fully committed to the process of constructive regional dialogue. Claims about Iran’s involvement in attack on Saudi oil pipeline ‘completely false’ Baghaei categorically rejected US claims that Iran was involved in an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline from Iraqi territory, describing the allegation as sheer lies. “Americans are constantly fabricating news and making false claims without paying any cost. There is no doubt about that,” he said. He added that US’ repeated lies amid the current circumstances were aimed at deepening divisions among regional countries, and urged the countries of the region to solve issues by themselves. “Otherwise, those who do not seek the good and interests of our region will continue to resort to such lies to further complicate the situation,” the spokesman warned. Baghaei also rejected claims about Iranian involvement in Yemeni affairs, saying Iran, as a country that cares about regional stability, is aware that some parties are exploiting the situation to escalate divisions and discord among Muslim countries. “It is quite clear that the Yemenis make their own decisions. [The Yemeni resistance movement] Ansarullah is an independent Yemeni party that takes decisions based on what it considers to be its own interests and priorities,” he reiterated. Yemenis have shown that they are free people and that issues concerning the Muslim world and humanity are important to them. The Iranian spokesman stressed the importance of guaranteeing shipping security and freedom of maritime trade for all. “You cannot attack a country or countries, impose a naval blockade on them, and then unilaterally expect them to act as the guardians of maritime shipping,” he said. He recommended that all the countries in the region recognize the realities on the ground and refrain from making baseless accusations against others if they genuinely seek to resolve regional problems.

IRGC Navy strikes Togo-flagged tanker after illegal attempt to transit Strait of Hormuz - The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy has announced that the offending Togo-flagged oil tanker Trend was struck and brought to a halt after a fire broke out aboard the vessel as it attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement issued on Thursday night, Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei, commander of the IRGC Navy, said the tanker sought to cross the strategic waterway last night “at the instigation and through the deception of the child-killing US military.” “The brave warriors of Islam and the valiant sailors of the IRGC Navy continue to powerfully maintain control of the vital waterway of the Strait of Hormuz and do not allow any aggressor to pass through it,” the statement read. The IRGC Navy added that the Trend “was struck and stopped after a fire broke out on it.” The force once again warned that illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz “will have no outcome other than the destruction of the offending vessel.” The statement opened “In the name of God, the Subduer of the Tyrants” and addressed “the great and honorable people of Islamic Iran,” noting that their “epic presence in the field” has now passed its 200th consecutive night. That nationwide presence, the commander said, continues to strengthen the nation's armed forces as they safeguard Iran’s maritime rights. Iran has for months enforced a new order in the Strait of Hormuz following the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression that began in late February. Under that arrangement, commercial vessels may transit only along routes designated by the Islamic Republic and only after obtaining authorization and coordinating with the IRGC Navy. Traffic outside those routes is prohibited. The IRGC has repeatedly described any alternative corridor announced without coordination with Tehran as unacceptable and dangerous. The Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have been kept free of the presence of US forces and other enemies through the committed work of Iranian sailors and the support of the Iranian nation, Rear Admiral Azmaei has emphasized in recent days. He has stressed that the waterway remains under Iranian intelligence surveillance and smart control, and that any hostile or unauthorized movement will be targeted. The latest incident fits a consistent pattern. Vessels that ignore IRGC warnings, follow US military instructions, or attempt to use undeclared and unsafe routes have been turned back, struck, or otherwise stopped. The IRGC Navy has made clear that so-called guidance from the US Central Command and the American Navy will not go unanswered and that shipping companies and insurers should disregard such directives. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital energy artery. Iran has consistently maintained that it never sought the waterway’s closure in principle, but that security, coordination, and respect for the Islamic Republic’s sovereign rights are non-negotiable after months of aggression, blockade, and attempts to dictate terms from outside the region. Safe passage is available to vessels that comply with Iranian regulations. Those that do not, the IRGC Navy says, face the consequences already demonstrated in the case of the Trend.

Iran claims it struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast developments -- Iran says it struck an oil tanker trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while hundreds of thousands of people rallied in Tehran in the largest show of support for the government since the United States and Israel launched attacks in February.    Meanwhile, South Korea says it is considering expanding a naval operation in the Gulf of Aden to protect its ships and oil-shipping routes, but it will not send troops to intervene in the Iran war. Iran said it struck the Togo-flagged oil tanker Trend over what it described as an “illegal attempt” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday night, according to the state broadcaster, which cited the Revolutionary Guard Corps.The Associated Press could not immediately confirm the report. The Guard's navy warned that vessels attempting to pass through the strait without authorization would face “destruction,” the broadcaster said. Tehran has asserted control over much of the waterway since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, which alerts about attacks or military operations, said another tanker was struck Wednesday by an “unknown projectile” while transiting out of the strait, with the crew reported safe. No other details were available.Hundreds of thousands of Iranians filled the streets of Tehran in the biggest rally since the war began in February, pledging to take up arms as “Janfaday-e Iran,” or those “who sacrifice their lives for Iran.” Iran’s government has sought to rally the people and stress national unity, even as the economy worsens under a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and new U.S. sanctions meant to increase Tehran’s economic pain. Some participants trampled flags of the U.S. and Israel. Others chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”  Hundreds of people rallied in northern areas of Yemen in support of the Houthis and to protest Saudi Arabia’s accusation that the rebels targeted Islam’s holiest site, Mecca. Houthi-controlled Al-Masirah TV showed protesters carrying pictures of the Kaaba, a landmark in Mecca, along with Yemeni, Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian flags. A speaker reiterated the Houthis’ opposition to Saudi Arabia, which supports Yemen's internationally recognized government.The Saudis said they intercepted a Houthi drone targeting Mecca earlier this week. The Houthi leadership has denied responsibility.  The Iran-backed Houthis are fighting Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, and the conflict recently has fueled mass displacement of more than 100,000 people.  Container ships and oil tankers continued to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the Houthis said they are only targeting Saudi-linked vessels. But a dip in traffic has been reported over the last week after a lightning advance by Houthis on islands in the waterway. About 26-35 vessels per day have transited this week, down from the 35-40 daily average of the prior eight weeks, according to Dimitris Ampatzidis, Maritime Risk & Compliance Manager at Kpler.Many shipping companies abandoned the route after Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked vessels began in 2023, though vessels from Russia and China appear to have no trouble.“Traffic remains severely impaired and increasingly selective,” said Mohamed Kotb with United Insurance Brokers in London.South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said his government is considering expanding the operations of a naval unit deployed in the Gulf of Aden off the coasts of Yemen and Somalia to protect his country’s vessels and oil shipping routes.But he stressed that South Korea would not take action that would draw it into the U.S.-Iran conflict, pushing back against recent pressure from the Trump administration. South Korea has deployed the anti-piracy Cheonghae Unit for years.

Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia Trade Attacks as Fighting Continues on the Ground in Yemen - - Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, reported on Sunday that Saudi Arabia launched dozens more airstrikes in Yemen as Ansar Allah continues to advance on the ground against Saudi-backed forces. Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said the Saudis launched 58 airstrikes over a 24-hour period using US-made F-15 fighter jets that took off from an air base in Khamis Mushait, southwest Saudi Arabia. Saree said that airstrikes hit the Yemeni provinces of Taiz, Lahj, al-Jawf, Hajjah, al-Bayda, and Saada.In a separate statement, Saree said that Yemeni forces targeted what he called “weapons depots and command and control centers” at a military base in the Sharurah area of southern Saudi Arabia.“We assure the criminal Saudi enemy that the continuation of its aggression against our people will be met with even more severe and massive operations deep within its territory, and the consequences for it will be dire, by the permission and power of Allah,” Saree said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency.   Yemeni media also claimed that five Saudi-backed commanders were killed during fighting in Kahboub, southwest Yemen, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Last week, Ansar Allah gained significant ground in a rapid offensive, capturing the Red Sea port city of Mocha, and later Mayyun, an island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them full control of the strategic waterway.According to SouthFront, which tracks the situation on the ground in Yemen, Ansar Allah made more territorial gains in the Taiz province on Sunday. According to the UN’s migration agency, the ground fighting has displaced more than 82,000 people in southwestern Yemen. Ansar Allah launched the ground offensive on September 3, following weeks of escalations in the wake of Saudi Arabia bombing the Sanaa International Airport on July 13, which reignited the war.

Ansar Allah Takes Control of More Red Sea Islands, Launches Attack on Saudi Arabia - - Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has taken control of more islands in the Red Sea and launched another significant missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia on Monday, as the war in Yemen continues to rage after it was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport on July 13.Yemeni sources told The Associated Press that Ansar Allah took control of the strategic islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish, which are 100 miles north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The report noted that the islands are also only 20 miles from the US military base in Djibouti.  Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF), announced on Monday morning that the YAF launched “a large-scale, qualitative military operation targeting military facilities and infrastructure, including aircraft hangars, radar installations, runways, ammunition depots, and other targets at King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait,” located in southwest Saudi Arabia.Saree said the attack was launched in response to Saudi Arabia “launching more than 300 airstrikes in the past five days” using US-made F-15 fighter jets and European-made Typhoon fighter jets. Later in the day, Saree said that Saudi Arabia had launched dozens more airstrikes.“The criminal Saudi warplanes launched 54 airstrikes in the past 24 hours using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from enemy Saudi bases in Khamis Mushait and Taif, targeting the governorates of Taiz, Lahj, Al-Jawf, Ma’rib, and Hajjah. This brutal aggression will not go unanswered and unpunished, God willing,” he wrote on Telegram.  Yemeni media reported that at least two civilians were killed by Saudi airstrikes that hit a bridge in the southwestern Taiz province. Dr. Omar Al-Bukheiti, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government, denounced the attack as a “crime” and said that it came as the “blood had not yet dried” from the September 7 strike on a prison in al-Jawf, Yemen, which killed at least 23 civilians, including inmates and a child, according to Yemeni officials. Saree previously said that the strike on the prison was carried out by a US-made F-15, and Yemen’s Mine Action Center also reported that its experts documented bomb fragments at the site and determined that the strike was carried out with a 2,000-pound US-made satellite-guided GBU-31 JDAM bomb.While the US has reportedly declined a Saudi request to launch direct airstrikes in Yemen, it is deeply involved in the war, as around 200 US military personnel are in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting assistance. The Saudi air force is also very reliant on US maintenance support and frequently uses US-made munitions.

Map: Iran's ally poised to choke additional 10 percent of oil trade by sea  - A rapid offensive by the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, also known as the Houthis, has put a powerful Iranian ally in control of the nation’s Red Sea coast and, with it, another key maritime corridor at the mercy of the Axis of Resistance. The Bab el-Mandeb lies between Yemen‘s southwest and the East African nation of Djibouti, constituting a link between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which ties to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. At its narrowest breadth, it’s just 16 miles wide and Ansar Allah has a record of paralyzing global shipping from much farther away. With Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces in retreat, a new blockade backed by the Ansar Allah’s missiles and drones would interrupt the flow of roughly 8.1 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products. That’s around 10 percent of global maritime oil trade, a figure made all the more strategically valuable by the Bab el-Mandeb’s role as an alternative route since Iran moved to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint in response to the war launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel. “If the Houthis consolidate control over Yemen’s western coast and the approaches to the strait, this becomes much more than a Yemeni issue,” Hisham al-Omeisy, a Yemeni analyst and former information resource center director at the U.S. Mission to Yemen, told Newsweek. A map of Yemen shows areas controlled by government forces and the pro-Iran Ansar Allah rebels as of September 11, 2026, according to the Sana’a Center. A Omeisy emphasized that Ansar Allah’s fighters do not necessarily even have to close the Bab el-Mandeb to make a difference. Rather, “they only need to make it dangerous enough that shipping companies decide the risk is too high,” leading to “higher insurance costs, ships going around Africa, longer delivery times and ultimately higher prices.” “And this becomes particularly dangerous when you look at what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz,” Omeisy said. “If Iran can put pressure on Hormuz while the Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb, you essentially have pressure on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula at the same time.” In addition to hosting 10 percent of global oil and 8 percent of global gas trade by sea, the Bab el-Mandeb also served as a gateway for some 30 percent of the world’s container traffic before the war, according to Nitya Labh, academy associate fellow at Chatham House’s International Security Program. “Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, countries like Saudi Arabia have diverted some of their oil exports from the Gulf to the Red Sea via overland gas pipelines, increasing the importance of the Red Sea in global energy markets,” Labh told Newsweek. But overland routes are not immune to the conflict, either. After reports emerged of attacks against Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline that runs from the eastern city of Abqaiq to the west coast port city of Yanbu, Riyadh confirmed Friday that damage had been inflicted by drones originating from Iraq, where other Iranian allies operate under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The Red Sea crisis also threatens to choke off the Suez Canal, which Labh described as “the last viable shipping pathway through the Middle East region.” After Ansar Allah launched its initial campaign against Red Sea shipping in response to the October 2023 outbreak of the war in Gaza that precipitated the ongoing Middle East crisis, traffic through the vital waterway fell by more than two-thirds. Most vessels were forced to take the far longer and costlier route toward South Africa’s Cape of Good hope in a situation reminiscent of an era before the Suez Canal’s founding in 1869. Transits slowly recovered upon a U.S.-backed ceasefire reached between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in October 2025 and had hit their highest wartime level just last month. Now that revival appears ill-fated and the impact looms for companies and consumers. “Diverting trade through this longer route introduces a number of risks: traffic congestion around ports in the Mediterranean and the coast of Africa create major supply chain disruptions,” Labh said. “New routes and changing traffic patterns create greater risk of piracy and accidents. “They also add over 15 days and millions of dollars in fuel, insurance, and transport costs. These costs often get passed to consumers leading to higher rates of inflation globally. Some imports may become prohibitively costly, cutting off supplies completely. This is particularly impacting economies in small island states.”

Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall (Reuters) - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia and were digging into positions on the western coast of Yemen along the Red Sea, Yemeni officials said, as urgent deliberations took place in Riyadh over how to respond to their lightning advance. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab states postponed planned talks with Iran, raising concerns the Middle East conflict could spread further and threaten global oil supplies. The Houthis on Monday said they fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen. Saudi authorities issued emergency alerts there and in three other southern cities. Thirteen civilians were wounded in the Houthi attacks, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said. The Houthi advances in recent days, including the taking of Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea, have put further pressure on Saudi oil exports after an aerial attack on Thursday knocked Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline offline. Riyadh blamed the pipeline attack on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia built the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) pipeline across its territory from the Gulf to the Red Sea in the 1980s to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when it came under threat from the Iran-Iraq war at that time. Traders said a prolonged shutdown of the Saudi pipeline could cut off as much as 4% of global oil supply while the strait is largely blockaded. Riyadh has not said when operations might resume. Responding to the Houthi offensive, the Saudi and Yemeni air forces have stepped up aerial bombardment of Houthi targets, including around the historic Red Sea port of Mocha, but the Houthis have maintained effective control over almost the entire western coast of the country along the Red Sea, the officials with Yemen's internationally recognised government said. “The Houthis are being put under heavy pressure. They in turn are putting more and more pressure on the Saudis, increasing their campaign of missile and drone attacks,” one of the Yemeni officials said. Crude oil prices rose more than 4% on Monday before settling about 1% higher. The renewed Yemen conflict poses another challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump. Three sources have told Reuters that Washington has so far resisted Saudi requests for direct military intervention beyond intelligence support. Trump said over the weekend he had spoken with the Saudi crown prince and that the Houthis had also contacted Washington urging it to stay out of the conflict.

Saudi regime seeks British strikes on Yemen after US refusal, Burnham undecided - The Saudi regime has asked Britain to carry out military strikes against Yemeni forces after Washington rejected Riyadh’s appeals for direct US action, according to a Bloomberg report, as the Al Saud monarchy struggles to contain the latest advances of Yemen’s Armed Forces along the Red Sea coast. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to take a final decision on the request, sources familiar with the matter told the outlet on Monday. Riyadh is seeking operational military support to try to reverse Yemeni gains toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and assistance in defending oil infrastructure that has come under legitimate retaliatory fire. Burnham has so far approved only the dispatch of British military advisers. The appeal follows a US snub. President Donald Trump turned down urgent requests from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for American airstrikes after Yemeni forces seized the strategic port of Mokha and pushed toward the strait, opting instead for intelligence sharing while keeping US forces focused on the confrontation with Iran. Yemeni Armed Forces have made rapid territorial gains in recent days, taking Mokha and other positions on the western coast after years of Saudi-led aggression, blockade and bombardment that devastated the country. Sana’a has made clear that its operations target the Saudi war machine and the economic assets used to sustain it, while international shipping remains unaffected except for vessels linked to the aggressor. Britain is no bystander. London has long armed, trained and politically covered the Saudi campaign that killed hundreds of thousands of Yemenis through bombs, starvation and disease. UK-supplied aircraft, bombs and missiles were central to the coalition’s attacks on civilian infrastructure. Sending advisers now would deepen that complicity at a moment when Riyadh’s decade-long war of aggression has failed to break Yemeni resistance. Burnham’s hesitation reflects both the unpopularity in Britain of further entanglement in Washington’s regional wars and the economic risks of a wider clash over Red Sea routes. Officials in London have privately warned that Yemeni control of approaches to Bab al-Mandeb would expose British and Western shipping interests that the UK itself helped militarize through past support for the Saudi coalition.

UK's Burnham Considers Request from Saudi Arabia To Assist in Yemen War -  - British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering a request from Saudi Arabia to assist in its war against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, according to a report from Bloomberg. Sources told the outlet that the UK has received requests for a range of military and diplomatic support and that Riyadh seeks help pushing back the Ansar Allah advance on the Red Sea coast and in defending its oil infrastructure from missile and drone attacks. The sources said that Burnham doesn’t want to appear to be too supportive of President Trump’s war with Iran, which is very unpopular in the UK. The report said the UK fears Ansar Allah’s control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could severely affect shipping and global oil prices, though senior Ansar Allah officials say their blockade still applies only to Saudi shipping. Back in 2024, the UK joined a US bombing campaign against Ansar Allah, which led to attacks on US and British commercial shipping and failed to stop Yemeni attacks on Israeli-linked shipping.The UK has approved the deployment of military advisors to Saudi Arabia to assist in the war but hasn’t ordered any direct military intervention. The US has reportedly declined to launch direct strikes against Ansar Allah, but it is deeply involved in the war, as it reportedly has up to 200 troops in Saudi Arabia assisting with intelligence and targeting. In the face of the Ansar Allah advance, Saudi Arabia has also requested help from Israel, according to a report from Israel Hayom. The report said Riyadh requested intelligence and other types of support through US Central Command.The war between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah had been in a state of ceasefire since 2022 and was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport on July 13, an attack carried out to prevent a plane from landing that was carrying a Yemeni delegation who attended the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran.

Saudi Arabia reports wide-ranging security alerts after week of strikes (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia issued security alerts over a range of territory on Tuesday, including in the holy city of Mecca and second-largest city Jeddah, following a week of attacks from Iran-aligned fighters that have drawn it deeper into the Middle East war. The alerts were swiftly lifted and Saudi authorities did not immediately report whether any incoming projectiles had landed, nor was there any immediate claim of responsibility for attacks. But the alerts were the widest ranging since an escalation in the conflict last week, and the alarm in Mecca was the first of the war in the city, which houses shrines sacred to all Muslims. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have announced a number of major attacks on Saudi Arabia over the past week, including strikes on an air base on Monday they said were in retaliation for airstrikes on Yemen. Saudi Arabia has blamed a separate pro-Iranian movement, based in Iraq, for an attack on Friday that knocked out one of the Kingdom's most important oil transport routes, the East-West Pipeline across the Arabian desert. Crude oil should be flowing through the pipeline within days, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Tuesday. A Saudi-led military coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen said 13 civilians had been wounded in the Houthis' attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday. The Iran-backed fighters launched a lightning advance along Yemen's western coast last week, culminating in the seizure of an island in the mouth of the Red Sea. The escalation in a new theatre in the Middle East conflict has strengthened Iran's hand in its war with the U.S. and further jeopardised global oil supplies. Officials from a Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which is based in the south of the country and opposes the Houthis, said the Saudi and Yemeni air forces had been responding to Houthi advances by stepping up aerial bombardment of Houthi targets. That included strikes near the historic Red Sea port of Mocha, which the fighters captured last week. But the Yemeni officials acknowledged that the Houthis had now taken effective control over almost the entire western coast of the country along the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia's 1,200-km (745-mile) East-West Pipeline, which links its Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea, has been the Kingdom's principal export route while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by six months of war. Since the pipeline was shut after Friday's attack, traders say a prolonged closure could cut off as much as 4% of global oil supply. Riyadh has not said when operations might resume, but Wright said on the sidelines of a G20 energy meeting in Houston that he thought "it will be measured in days." He said Saudi Arabia was taking steps to move more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz with assistance from the U.S. military. The new Houthi presence in the Bab el-Mandeb, or "Gate of Tears", the strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, could further jeopardise that crucial export route.

Defense Minister Says Pakistan Will ‘Fulfill Our Duty’ to Saudi Arabia Amid Attacks from Ansar Allah - Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said Islamabad was prepared to fulfill its obligations under the Mecca Agreement as Saudi Arabia battles Ansar Allah in Yemen. The “Mecca Agreement applies to us, and we will fulfill our duty,” Asif said on Wednesday without going into details about what kind of support Islamabad was preparing to provide to Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia went to war against Ansar Allah long before the Mecca Agreement was signed last month, Asif said that an alleged drone attack on the holy city of Mecca is cause for Pakistan to act. “If Mecca is attacked, there is no need for an agreement to protect it,” Asif said. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia claimed to have downed a drone fired by Ansar Allah the day before that was headed toward Mecca. Ansar Allah has firmly rejected the accusation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif restated Pakistan’s support, saying the country stood “shoulder to shoulder” with Saudi Arabia. The fighting between Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia reignited in July after the kingdom attacked the Sanaa airport. In recent weeks, Ansar Allah has taken a significant amount of territory from the Saudi-backed forces in Yemen and attacked several energy sites in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has reached out to international partners for support. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested that President Donald Trump order direct attacks on Ansar Allah positions. However, after a meeting between American and Ansar Allah representatives in Oman last week, Trump informed MBS he would only provide Saudi Arabia with intelligence support. Saudi Arabia has also asked China and Pakistan to place pressure on Iran to rein in Ansar Allah. According to three Iranian sources speaking with Reuters, Beijing privately asked Tehran to rein in Ansar Allah after receiving a request from Riyadh. The sources told the outlet that Iran responded that stability in the region depended on US and Israeli aggression. In public statements, China has called for stability. “China does not wish to see regional tensions further spill over into Yemen and the Red Sea. Escalating regional instability is not in the interests of any party,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry told Reuters. “The sovereignty and security of all countries should be respected, and facilities vital to people’s livelihoods must not be targeted. China calls for an end to actions that further complicate the situation and urges resolving issues through dialogue and negotiation.” Asif said Islamabad also relayed a message from Riyadh to Tehran asking Iran to rein in Ansar Allah. However, the Pakistani Defense Minister downplayed the Iranian role in the ongoing war between Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia. “I don’t think Iran as a state will open another front,” he said. While Saudi Arabia’s ties to the US and Ansar Allah’s relationship with Tehran allow the war between the two to appear to be a part of a larger regional war, the conflict began over a decade ago. Additionally, Ansar Allah did not begin its offensive following the US and Israeli surprise attack on Iran, but rather after Saudi-backed forces attacked the Sanaa airport, prompting Ansar Allah to resume attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Araghchi Discusses Regional Developments With Pakistan Army Chief - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the latest regional developments and issues of mutual interest with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, during a phone call from Beijing. Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that the talks took place on Wednesday on the sidelines of Araghchi’s visit to China, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain stalled with no signs of an imminent agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said he hoped the war with Iran would end soon. A separate media report said Trump is expected to meet with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss the conflict. According to Axios, Trump’s meeting with Gulf leaders in New York is expected to focus on U.S. plans for a post-war strategy. Trump is expected to meet with the leaders or foreign ministers of the six GCC countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

Yemeni Media Published Photos of Downed Saudi F-15 Fighter Jet as War Continues to Rage -Yemen’s SABA news agency on Wednesday published what it said were photos of a US-made Saudi F-15SA fighter jet that was shot down by Ansar Allah over the Yemeni province of Marib.So far, the shootdown has yet to be confirmed by US or Saudi sources, but the photos show what appears to be the vertical tail fin of an F-15 marked with a Saudi flag. Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree also released what he said was footage of the jet being shot down by Yemeni air defenses.In a statement on the downing, Saree said that Saudi Arabia had launched 450 airstrikes in Yemen over the past week using both F-15 fighter jets and the European-made Typhoon. “In the face of this brutal aggression our country and people, The Yemeni Armed Forces, with Allah’s help and grace, were able to shoot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet while it was conducting hostile operations in support of its military buildup in the skies over Marib Governorate, the fighter jet was downed using a locally manufactured surface-to-air missile,” he said. Saree also claimed that Yemeni forces forced two other F-15s to retreat and strongly denied Saudi claims that Ansar Allah had targeted Mecca, Islam’s holiest site. “The fabrications and lies propagated by the criminal Saudi regime regarding targeting Mecca cannot deceive anyone, they are the ones who defile it with immorality, debauchery, and the importation of prostitutes, there is no threat whatsoever facilities from Yemen to the holy sites, our operations target their oil places and military bases, and are far removed from the holy [sites],” Saree said In separate statements, Saree announced more Ansar Allah missile and drone attacks targeting oil and military sites in Saudi Arabia and said the Saudi forces launched 40 more airstrikes over the previous 24-hour period. The airstrikes are backed by the US, which reportedly has up to 200 troops in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting support.

UNICEF: 12 Million Yemen Children Need Aid -- UNICEF has warned that renewed hostilities across Yemen are forcing families to flee their homes, killing and injuring children, and disrupting access to healthcare and education, further worsening an already severe humanitarian crisis. More than 12 million children are in need of humanitarian assistance. In a statement, UNICEF said more than 104,000 people, including over 57,000 children, had been displaced in just two weeks. The agency added that since September 3, reports indicated that at least nine children had been killed and 12 injured, while three children remained missing following an attack on the road linking Yemen’s western coast with Aden. UNICEF said ongoing fighting in western Taiz, southern Hudaydah, Marib and other affected areas was depriving children of essential services. Services at 26 UNICEF-supported health facilities have been disrupted, while 243 schools have been closed or suspended classes, affecting more than 137,000 students. UNICEF is expanding its emergency response to reach up to 231,000 people affected by the escalation. The organization has already begun providing assistance, including support for health facilities, distributing hygiene supplies and water tanks in Taiz, providing additional water and sanitation supplies in Marib, and redeploying nine mobile health and nutrition teams to displacement sites and affected communities in Aden, Marib and Taiz. UNICEF Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa Edouard Beigbeder said the latest wave of violence was undermining the little stability left for children who have already endured years of hunger, displacement and disrupted education. UNICEF warned that the impact of the escalation extends to areas across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with more than 2,000 people, including many children, arriving in Djibouti after a dangerous crossing marked by extreme heat, dehydration and serious safety risks. UNICEF is working with relevant authorities to support newly arrived families by providing safe water, sanitation and hygiene services, child protection assistance, and referrals for the most vulnerable children to receive the care they need. The organization said that even before the latest escalation, an estimated 12.2 million children in Yemen were already in need of humanitarian assistance. It added that more than 2.2 million children under the age of five were suffering from acute malnutrition, including more than 515,000 children experiencing severe acute malnutrition, while 3.2 million school-age children were out of school. UNICEF reiterated the UN Secretary-General’s call on all parties to the conflict to protect civilians, including children, comply with international humanitarian law, facilitate safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and ensure that urgently needed assistance reaches communities in need.

Saudi Arabia Pivots to Spot Oil Sales After Key Pipeline Goes Offline -- So far this week, Saudi Arabia has sold as many as 20 million barrels of crude oil in the spot market to be picked up from just outside the Strait of Hormuz, after the Kingdom was forced to shut down the key onshore pipeline that helps it bypass the chokepoint, unnamed traders with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Chinese refiners, including state-held giants and independent refiners, as well as crude processors in other East Asian countries, have been the main buyers of the Saudi spot crude offerings this week, according to Bloomberg’s sources who wished to remain anonymous. The Saudis are selling the cargoes for pickup and loading for this month and next onto other vessels outside the Strait of Hormuz. This means buyers will not be sending tankers into the Persian Gulf via Hormuz, but will load the cargoes in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Late last week, Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West oil pipeline following drone attacks launched from the territory of Iraq close to the Iranian border on Thursday. The 750-mile-long East-West pipeline became Saudi Arabia’s vital oil route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz after the Middle East conflict started and Hormuz was closed to shipping traffic. Thanks to the East-West pipeline, the Kingdom has managed to re-route most of its crude loadings from its eastern ports in the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.  After the East-West pipeline outage, Saudi oil giant Aramco has reportedly canceled or delayed some September deliveries to European refiners.The STS transfers of spot crude cargoes have been perfected in recent months by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whose national oil company ADNOC has offered prompt supply in multiple tenders both within the Persian Gulf and the Fujairah-Sohar range outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudis tell European refiners they’ll get no crude next month - Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude oil next month after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked, people informed of the decision said. European customers normally receive Saudi Arabian crude on so-called term contracts, ensuring a steady flow of supply every month. Those deliveries will not take place next month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The decision applies to all European buyers, they said. Saudi Aramco didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment made outside normal working hours. Saudi Arabia was forced to shut its East-West pipeline last week after it was attacked by drones. The line is due to partially restart within days and be fully back up and running within six weeks, a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. European refineries typically lift Saudi crude from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, which is connected to the Red Sea via a pipeline. The pipeline halt caused panic buying from some of Aramco’s customers. Poland’s Orlen SA issued more than ten tenders since Friday in a race to secure alternative supplies. European countries in the OECD imported 577,000 barrels a day of crude from Saudi Arabia in June, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

Macron Calls for Another Emergency Oil Release as Europe Loses Supply - French President Emmanuel Macron is calling the G7 back to the table to discuss another release of emergency oil stocks as Europe loses Saudi crude deliveries and diesel prices push deeper into record territory. Macron said Friday that he will convene G7 countries in the coming weeks to coordinate stock levels, exports and production capacity and consider tapping strategic reserves. France is also working to secure diesel, jet fuel and natural gas supplies for the coming months. Europe has a useful card left to play. Unlike the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, European emergency stocks contain large volumes of finished fuels, including gasoline and diesel. Diesel is exactly where the market hurts. Europe’s diesel benchmark rose to more than $200 per barrel this week, with taxes pushing retail-equivalent costs above $300. Russia has extended restrictions on diesel exports, and Middle Eastern product exports are still constrained. Saudi Arabia added another problem Friday when Aramco told at least two European refiners they will receive no crude under term contracts in October following the attack on its East-West pipeline. The company is trying to restore partial pipeline capacity within days, with full recovery reportedly taking about six weeks. Aramco has found another route for roughly 60 million barrels through the Persian Gulf and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman. Most of those barrels are headed to Asian refiners. Europe is buying replacement crude from the North Sea and elsewhere instead. The G7 has already burned through a lot of ammunition. IEA members have released more than 300 million barrels of emergency stocks since March. Global observed inventories are still 507 million barrels lower than when the war began, after drawing at an average 2.8 million bpd over the past six months. Another stock release could put physical barrels—and importantly, finished fuel—into Europe quickly. It cannot repair Saudi Arabia’s pipeline, restart Russian refineries or reopen Hormuz.