oil prices end week at a 42 month high after rising 31.4%, then falling 32.0%, on Monday; US oil supplies at a nine month high

US oil prices finished higher for a fourth consecutive week as Iran continued to target Middle East oil infrastructure in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on its infrastructure…after rising 35.6% to a 29 month high of $90.90 a barrel last week as the Israeli and US war against Iran shut off 20% of the world’s oil trade, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for April delivery surged more than 25% in early Asian trading on Monday. as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran, but pared those early gains to an 8% increase on the possibility of a coordinated release of crude from strategic reserves, fears that soaring energy prices would cause inflation to skyrocket and lead to weaker economic growth, and profit-taking in a technically overbought market. the​n sold off further to a low of $81.19 ahead of the close in New York on comments by President Trump suggesting the end of the war with Iran could be close and reports that the U.S. was weighing further easing of Russian oil sanctions, before rallying to settle $3.87 higher at $94.77 a barrel as finance ministers from the Group of Seven(G7) announced plans to release emergency crude reserves to offset ​the disruption in supply caused by the Iran war in the Middle East …oil prices fell 4.5% after Asian markets opened on Tuesday, on signs that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East might not last as long as earlier feared, easing concerns about major supply disruptions, and were down about 15% in midday trading in New York after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but bounced off the day’s lows to settle $11.94 lower $83.45 a barrel after the White House Press Secretary told reporters that “The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” …oil prices moved sharply higher on global markets on Wednesday after Iraqi officials said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were struck by explosive-laden boats, triggering fires and raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the region. and rallied further as markets opened in New York, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained almost completely idle amid reports of Iran deploying sea mines in the vital oil chokepoint, even as emergency release plans from strategic oil reserves kept gains in check, and settled $3.80 higher at $87.25 a barrel, as fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply disruption fears, and analysts said the International Energy Agency's proposal for a record release ‌of oil reserves was inadequate to ease those fears….oil prices surged by more than 9% in early Asian trading on Thursday, as the US-Israeli aggression against Iran had effectively stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the key route for supplying the global market with oil from the Persian Gulf states, and held those gains across global markets as the international benchmark hit the key $100 per barrel level after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that Hormuz would remain closed as long as the U.S. and Israel continued an assault on the country, and continued to trade higher in New York as Iran increased its attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, including two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters and four vessels in Gulf waters, and settled $8.48 higher at $95.73 a barrel after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the U.S. Navy was not yet ready to escort tankers through the Strait, given Iran’s offensive capabilities….oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Friday morning after the United States issued a temporary license allowing countries to purchase Russian crude and petroleum products currently stranded at sea, and were down about 1.7% by midday on global markets after an Indian oil tanker safely exited the Strait of Hormuz and the US proposed measures aimed at easing supply concerns, but reversed their early losses and rallied during New York trading to settle $2.98 higher $98.71 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and analysts worried the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started, and thus finished up 8.6% for the week…

US natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished lower for the fifth time in six weeks, as mild weather forecasts threatened to turn a small storage deficit into a surplus before April would turn weekly storage withdrawals into weekly injections….after rising 11.4% to $3.186 per mmBTU last week on surging global prices tied to the Iran war and on a larger than expected draw of natural gas from storage, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for April delivery opened 15.8 cents higher on Monday, as pre-market trading had lifted the contract​ on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but then pulled back sharply as traders tried to realign with domestic fundamentals, and settled 6.6 cents lower at $3.120 per mmBTU, surrendering its Iran war gains as shoulder season warmth reduced demand…that front month natural gas contract opened 9.1 cents lower on Tuesday, as traders turned their focus to the end of the winter season and ​to mild forecasts, and settled 10.0 cents lower at $3.020 per mmBTU, as warmer forecasts and weaker European gas prices weighed on the current month​'s price, while Middle East tensions continued supporting winter contract prices farther out the curve…natural gas prices opened 8.5 cents higher on Wednesday, as traders eyed the arrival of more seasonal temperatures for the coming week, and settled the session 18.9 cents higher at $3.209 per mmBTU, as domestic production dipped and natural gas futures rode the oil wave higher…natural gas prices opened 2.0 cents higher on Thursday and posted a cautious ascent to an intraday high of $3.262 at 11:25 AM, as the weekly natural gas storage report fell in line with expectations, then drifted to settle 2.4 cents higher at $3.233 per mmBTU as the threat of prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies overshadowed a softer-than-expected U.S. storage withdrawal…natural gas prices were little changed in early trading Friday, as traders tried to gauge the impacts of the Middle East tumult against a domestic market on the cusp of soft weather demand, then tumbled through midday trading as traders looked past a brief cold shot expected early next week and instead focused on a warming trend heading into spring, and settled 10.2 cents lower at 3.131 per mmBTU, as traders focused on fading heating demand and a market poised to flip from storage deficits to surpluses. which left April natural gas 1.7% lower for the week...

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending March 6th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 38 billion cubic feet to 1,848 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 141 billion cubic feet, or 8.3% above the 1,707 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on March 6th of last year, but 17 billion cubic feet, or 0.9% below the five-year average of 1,865 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 6th of March over the most recent five years….the 38 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was in line with the 37 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, but was less than the 64 billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 64 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late February week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 6th indicated that after a sizable decrease in our oil exports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 21st time in forty-one weeks, and for the 49th time in eighty-six weeks, in spite of an increase in our oil refining and an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 98,000 barrels per day to 6,422,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 335,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 563,000 barrels per day to average 3,434,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,988,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 6th, an average of 661,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 3,000 barrels per day lower at 550,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 18,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 13,678,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,216,000 barrels per day during the March 6th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,169,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 6th, an average of 328,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 546,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending March 6th averaged a rounded 501,000 more barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -501,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…moreover, since 239,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 261,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore questionable.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 546,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories all came as an average of 546,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while the amount of oil in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve was unchanged… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,482,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 12.6% more than the 5,756,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be a rounded 18,000 barrels per day lower at 13,678,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 23,000 barrels per day lower at 13,254,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 424,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.4% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.0% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 90.8% of their capacity while processing those 16,169,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 6th, up from 89.2% the prior week, with the ongoing fluctuation in the utilization rate likely due to seasonal maintenance and temporary shutdowns, as refineries are reconfigured to produce summer blends of fuel….the 16,169,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was 2.9% more than the 15,708,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending March 7th of 2025, and 3.0% more than the 15,701,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 6th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.4%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 554,000 barrels per day to 9,888,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 6th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 116,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 5.8% more than the 9,346,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending March 7th of last year, but 0.7% less than the gasoline production of 9,956,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending March 6th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 132,000 barrels per day to 4,944,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 61,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production increases, our distillates output was 10.8% more than the 4,462,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 7th of 2025, and 5.1% more than the 4,705,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending March 6th, 2020....

Even after this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the fourth week in a row, decreasing by 3,654,000 barrels to 249,476,000 barrels during the week ending March 6th, the largest draw in four months, coming after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,704,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by more this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users jumped by 949,000 barrels per day to 9,241,000 barrels per day,  and even as our imports of gasoline rose by 104,000 barrels per day to 552,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 187,000 barrels per day to 880,000 barrels per day … In spite of thirty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.5% higher than last March 7th’s gasoline inventories of 241,101,000 barrels, and about 5% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

Even after this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillate fell for the fifth time in seventeen weeks, decreasing by 1,349,000 barrels to 119,431,000 barrels during the week ending March 6th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 429,000 barrels during the prior week… Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 367,000 barrels to 4,065,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 5,000 barrels per day to 179,000 barrels per day, and while our exports of distillates rose by 23,000 barrels per day to 1,251,000 barrels per day... After 21 additions to distillates inventories over the past 35​ weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.6% higher than the 117,595,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 7th of 2025, but still about 2% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 30th time over the past year, increasing by 3,824,000 barrels over the week, from 439,279,000 barrels on February 27th to a nine month high of 443,103,000 barrels on March 6th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,475,000 barrels over the prior week….Even after this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 2% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 34% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the the first weekend of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this February 27th were 1.8% more than the 435,223,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 7th of 2025, but were 0.9% less than the 446,994,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March 8th of 2024, and 7.4% less than the 478,513,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on March 3rd of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by two over the week ending March 6th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by one, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was also up by one, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of March 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 27th) and this week’s (March 6th) count, the third column shows last week’s February 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 7th of March, 2025…

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Action Needed: Recent Nominations put Piedmont Lake in danger.  Save Ohio Parks - Two new fracking nominations – 26-DNR-0004 and 26-DNR-0005 – will open another 1,600 acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area to oil and gas extraction.These nominations aren’t just about gas. They’re about our water.Comments are due March 15. Fracking uses massive amounts of fresh water that is locally sourced. Very little of this water can ever return to the natural water cycle. Instead, nearly all of it must be injected underground for storage, never returning to streams, lakes, or our drinking water. Our research shows that at least 1.9 billion gallons of our fresh water will be used to frack the already approved nominations throughout the state. This water is taken directly out of our watersheds.Any new nomination, such as those in Egypt Valley, only adds to those gallons. Each well pad requires tens of millions of gallons of water. Further fracking will forever change the make-up and access to fresh water here in Ohio.Egypt Valley is still healing from decades of strip mining. Adding new extraction will only reverse the years of restoration that have gone into the wildlife area by putting Piedmont Lake in danger.Please tell the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission that Ohio public lands are meant to nourish – not frack.Go to the Nomination Comment Form and submit comments opposing EACH nomination 26-DNR-0004 and 26-DNR-0005.    SUBMIT A COMMENT  You are welcome to use our sample comment below, but please edit it to make it your own. Tell a story about your experience in Ohio parks or wildlife areas, and explain why protecting Ohio’s public lands is important to you.

Water districts in Ohio join call for injection well moratorium - The Allegheny Front -Five water districts and several municipalities in southeastern Ohio submitted a letter to Governor Mike DeWine and state legislators on Thursday calling for a 3-year pause on new waste injection wells in Washington County. The wells store wastewater, created by fracking for oil and gas, deep underground. It often contains radioactivity and other contaminants.“Our water districts acknowledge the importance of the oil and gas industry, but they believe these interests must be balanced so that regular Ohioans are protected from unnecessary risk,” the letter states.Washington County has 19 permitted injection wells, which is about as many as the entire state of Pennsylvania. According to the letter, four of those wells are permitted to inject a combined 20,000 barrels of wastewater a day. “The owner of those wells is seeking to operate an additional three injection wells – all existing and proposed wells would be within two miles of four aquifers serving 32,000 people in Ohio and West Virginia,” it states.Representatives from Washington County’s Warren, Putnam, Little Hocking, Highland Ridge, and Tri-County water authorities, joined Muskingum and Waterford Townships, the Village of Beverly, the City of Marietta, and the group Washington County for Safe Drinking Water signed the letter in support of a moratorium, which included over 300 signatures. In addition to the 3-year pause on injection wells in Washington County, the letter asks for state legislation to stop the import out-of-state waste for injection, stop all current injection of waste within six miles of the aquifers and require a full study of brine migration and risks to drinking water sources within Washington County over the next three years. “These are reasonable, temporary safeguards designed to protect essential drinking water infrastructure,” said Jay Huck, a trustee in Muskingum Township, at a community event Wednesday evening. He said the moratorium would give the state “time to gather the scientific data needed for responsible long-term policy.”Ohio regulators have suspended several injection wells in recent years after finding they leaked underground. Huck said it would be ‘devastating’ and ‘irreversible’ if the injection wells were to contaminate a drinking water aquifer. Steve Hutchinson, a member of the Warren Community Water and Sewer Association in Washington County, has been trying to get the governor and lawmakers to pay attention to this issue.“I think we’re on the right track here,” he said. “The pressure’s on. We can’t quit. We have to keep going because Columbus is listening to us. They certainly are.”

Marietta, OH Without Injection Wells = Economic Catastrophe- Marcellus Drilling News - Wastewater injection wells are an essential, safe, and highly regulated component of Southeast Ohio’s fracking industry. Banning these wells would trigger an economic catastrophe, leading to job losses and reduced public funding, without providing any actual environmental benefits. Yet that’s exactly what the political leaders of Marietta, OH, in collusion with virulent anti-fossil fuel groups, are attempting to do. Opposing injection wells while supporting fracking (as Marietta’s “leaders” are doing) is contradictory, as the two are inseparable for regional energy production and the area’s continued economic stability.

Insurance Co. Sues OH’s DeepRock $1.15M for Injection Well Cleanup -Marcellus Drilling News --Just coming to light for us is a lawsuit filed in June 2025 seeking to hold DeepRock Disposal Solutions responsible for the $1.28 million cleanup of a 2021 environmental incident in Noble County. The incident involved fracking brine migrating from a DeepRock injection well into the inactive Gant Well, triggering a massive eruption that contaminated local waterways and killed a couple of hundred fish and salamanders (see Ohio O&G Commission Blames Unplugged Well for Injection Well Leak). Although the Gant Well owner, Genesis, settled with the state for $1.15 million, the company’s insurer is now suing DeepRock to recoup those costs, alleging DeepRock’s negligence caused the leak.

Crude Oil Spill on the Ohio River Monitored by the TD-500 Oil in Water Meter - Turner Designs Hydrocarbon Instruments, Inc. is helping the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) in monitoring the 63,000 gallon crude oil spill on the Ohio river. This spill was a result of ruptured underground pipeline on the Kentucky river. ORSANCO is using the TD-500 handheld oil in water analyzer and the 10-AU field fluorometer for oil spill response. For more information on the oil spill, please see www.epa.gov/region4/midvallley_ky/index.htm. ORSANCO field personnel using the waterproof handheld TD-500, analyze water samples along the Ohio river to protect drinking water supplies from crude oil contamination with a simple solvent extraction method, analysis results are available in less than 4 minutes.

Ascent Resources plans expanded drilling in 2026 - An expanded drilling program is the goal of Oklahoma City-based Ascent Resources. The company released its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings report an indicated it will increase 2026 land spending by nearly 40% up to nearly $225 million. The company wants to beef up its long-term inventory and also take advantage of the growing development of data centers which use natural gas to generate needed power. “In addition to increasing production, Ascent is exploring supply deals with data centers to capitalize on growing power demand in the Appalachian region,” stated the company in its earnings report. Considered a major producer in Ohio, part of the Utica shale play, Ascent reported it plans to divide the 2026 drilling between gas and liquids with nearly $700 million in development. It also intends to hedge more than 80% of expected natural gas production. Ascent reported $454 million in generated cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and $1.7 billion for the year. Its adjusted EBITDAX was $462 million for the quarter and $1.7 billion for 2025. Adjusted free cash flow totaled $238 million in the quarter and $749 million for the year. Ascent had 972 gross operated producing wells in the Utica Shale in late 2025 and the company believes it has 18 to 21 years of future drilling inventory, an estimate based on current activity levels. ◦Net production averaged 2,308 mmcfe per day for the quarter and 2,149 mmcfe per day for the year; liquids production averaged 53,000 bbls per day in the fourth quarter and for the year. ◦Initial 2026 guidance of 2.1 to 2.2 bcfe per day of production on D&C spend of $650 to $700 million. The fourth quarter 2025 realized price, including the impact of settled commodity derivatives, was $3.89 per mcfe. Excluding the impact of settled commodity derivatives, the realized price was $3.58 per mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2025, a $0.03 per mcfe premium to NYMEX natural gas prices. Fourth quarter 2025 net production averaged 2,308 mmcfe per day, consisting of 1,992 mmcf per day of natural gas, 14,370 bbls per day of oil and 38,250 bbls per day of natural gas liquids (“NGLs”), putting liquids at 14% of the overall production mix for the quarter. Net production for the year ended December 31, 2025 averaged 2,149 mmcfe per day, consisting of 1,829 mmcf per day of natural gas, 14,345 bbls per day of oil and 39,022 bbls per day of NGLs, putting liquids at 15% of the overall production mix for 2025. The realized price, including the impact of settled commodity derivatives, was $3.92 per mcfe for the year ended December 31, 2025. Excluding the impact of settled commodity derivatives, price realizations were $3.56 per mcfe for the year, a $0.13 per mcfe premium to NYMEX natural gas prices. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company spud 11 operated wells, hydraulically fractured 10 wells, and turned-in-line 9 wells with an average lateral length of 13,845 feet. For the full-year, Ascent spud 56 wells, hydraulically fractured 61 wells, and turned-in-line 62 wells with an average lateral length of approximately 16,021 feet. As of December 31, 2025, Ascent had 995 gross operated productive Utica wells. As of December 31, 2025, Ascent had total debt of approximately $2.1 billion, with $185 million of borrowings and $62 million of letters of credit issued under the credit facility. Liquidity as of December 31, 2025 was approximately $1.76 billion, comprised of $1.75 billion of available borrowing capacity under the credit facility and $4 million of cash on hand.

Ascent Resources Eyes Data Center Growth with 2026 Expansion Plan -Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, formerly American Energy Partners, was founded by Aubrey McClendon, a gas industry legend, and is a privately held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 update last week. The company plans to expand its 2026 drilling program, increasing land spending by 40% to nearly $225 million. The company aims to strengthen its long-term inventory and supply natural gas to power-hungry Appalachian data centers.

OH Judge Denies Class Action Status in Antero Gas Royalty Lawsuit  - Marcellus Drilling News -  Here’s a lawsuit that had (until now) escaped our radar screen. It’s a lawsuit dealing with the issue of post-production deductions. The case is Kirkbride v. Antero Resources Corp. and is being litigated in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio. On March 6, 2026, Magistrate Judge Elizabeth Preston Deavers denied a motion to certify the case as a class action. This is a significant development in the ongoing legal friction between Ohio landowners and energy companies over how royalties are calculated.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and Provides 2026 Outlook -Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial and operating results and provided a 2026 outlook.

• Completed transformational acquisition of upstream and midstream assets in Ohio from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream in February 2026 (the "Antero Acquisition")
• Completed $350 million strategic equity investment from Quantum Capital Group (“Quantum”) and Carnelian Energy Capital (“Carnelian”)
• Delivered 93% growth in total net daily production to 271.6 MMcfe/d, or 45.3 MBoe/d, in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the fourth quarter 2024
  • Increased natural gas net production 129% compared to fourth quarter 2024
• Reported net income of $80.4 million
• Delivered 104% growth in Adjusted EBITDAX⁽¹⁾ to $94.0 million in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the fourth quarter 2024, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin⁽¹⁾ of $3.76 / Mcf, or $22.58 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
• Placed 6 wells into sales in the fourth quarter totaling approximately 103,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) 3 oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) 3 natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
• Acquired working interests in our South Bend Field in Pennsylvania (the "South Bend Acquisition") for consideration of approximately 2.5 million shares of our Class A common stock, with approximately 1,600 net Marcellus acres and 1,600 net Utica acres and Adjusted operating income⁽¹⁾ of $2.8 million for the fourth quarter 2025
• Acquired approximately 2,500 net acres during the quarter, increasing working interest in our active development projects and enhancing future projects
• Generated $75.1 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter
• Development capital expenditures incurred of $52.9 million, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
• Increased the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility from $375 million to $875 million on February 23, 2026 in connection with the closing of the Antero Acquisition
• Total net debt⁽¹⁾ was approximately $148.0 million as of December 31, 2025 (including borrowings to fund a $61.2 million deposit for the Antero Acquisition), and approximately $442.7 million as of February 28, 2026
• Total liquidity was $226.9 million as of December 31, 2025 and $413.1 million as of February 28, 2026
• Delivered 46% growth in total net daily production to 211.8 MMcfe/d, or 35.3 MBoe/d, in 2025 compared to 2024
• Reported net income of $64.0 million
• Delivered Adjusted EBITDAX⁽¹⁾ of $261.0 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin⁽¹⁾ of $3.38 / Mcf, or $20.26 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
• Placed 23 wells into sales in 2025 totaling approximately 363,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) 11 oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) 12 natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
• Acquired approximately 6,700 net acres during the year
• Generated $261.8 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2025
• Development capital expenditures incurred of $290.8 million, including D&C and midstream
• Reported total proved reserves of 1.3 Tcfe, or 225.0 MMBoe, with 45% proved developed and 16% oil, 68% natural gas and 16% natural gas liquids (“NGLs”)
• Development capital budget of $450 million to $500 million, including D&C and midstream
• Total net daily production expected to be between 345 and 375 MMcfe/d, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 70% at the midpoint of the range
  • Total natural gas net production expected to be between 235 and 255 MMcfe/d
  • Total oil and liquids net production expected to be between 18 and 20 Mbbls/d
• Anticipate running 2 rigs throughout the year with 1 rig dedicated to the assets acquired in the Antero Acquisition beginning early in the second quarter
  • Expect to turn into sales 31 gross wells, with 8 wells in the dry gas Pennsylvania Marcellus, 10 wells in the rich gas area of the Ohio Utica (on the assets acquired in the Antero Acquisition) and 13 wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica

Gulfport Energy CEO John Reinhart Suddenly Resigns and Exits Co.  - Marcellus Drilling News -  Some earthshattering news to share: Gulfport Energy CEO John Reinhart just up and quit last Friday. He resigned his post as President and CEO of the company and his membership on the board of directors. Gone. Just like that. Gulfport issued a press release yesterday to say it’s no big deal, that Timothy J. Cutt, who is Chairman of the board and the former CEO before Reinhart, will fill in while a search is conducted. But, it is a big deal. The question is, why did Reinhart abruptly quit?

Is Gulfport Energy an M&A Target in Appalachia After CEO Exit? -- The abrupt departure of Gulfport Energy’s CEO raises questions about whether the company still intends to grow in Appalachia through acquisitions or become a takeover target itself as high-quality drilling inventory grows scarce.

Key Issue for Shell PA Cracker: What Constitutes Emissions Data?  - Marcellus Drilling News - Shell’s $15 billion petrochemical complex in Beaver County faces intense scrutiny following new emissions data highlighting persistent operational problems. Since opening, the facility has received 80 malfunction reports and 43 state violation notices. From 2020 to 2024, the plant emitted 17.9 billion pounds of “pollutants,” including nearly 400 million pounds of unexpected emissions during malfunctions involving hazardous chemicals like benzene and naphthalene. Despite Shell’s efforts, ongoing issues such as flaring, equipment breakdowns, and a 2025 fire continue to concern regulators and residents, while the local economy has unexpectedly shrunk since the plant’s inception.

28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 2 – 8 - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received a combined 21 new drilling permits last week, Mar. 2 – 8, up 10 from the 11 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 21 of the permits. Ohio issued 7. And, West Virginia issued no new permits last week. The drillers receiving new permits last week included: Ascent Resources, CNX Resources, EOG Resources, EQT, Expand Energy, Range Resources, and Repsol. Ascent Resources | Bradford County | Carroll County | CNX Resources | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Jefferson County (OH) | Range Resources Corp | Repsol | Washington County

M-U Rigs Realign: PA Stays @ 20, OH Drops 2 @ 11, WV Adds 1 @ 8 - Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, the Marcellus/Utica saw a realignment in rig counts, at least in Ohio and West Virginia. Pennsylvania kept the 20 rigs it has had since early February. Ohio lost two rigs, from 13 to 11, the fewest active rigs in the Buckeye State since last September. And perhaps the biggest news was that West Virginia picked up one rig, from 7 to 8 rigs, for the first time since last May! Overall, the M-U region had a net loss of one rig last week, going from 40 to 39 active rigs. The M-U’s biggest competitor, the Haynesville, gained one rig, from 52 to 53 rigs, some 14 rigs more than the M-U. It wasn’t all that long ago that the M-U ran more rigs than the Haynesville.

Patterson-UTI CEO Predicts Coming Shortage of Fracking Equipment -Marcellus Drilling News -Patterson-UTI is a leading North American oilfield services company (OFS company) based in Houston, specializing in high-spec land drilling, pressure pumping, and directional drilling. Patterson operates one of the largest fleets of APEX® rigs, focusing on advanced, technology-driven solutions for oil and natural gas exploration. Patterson operates roughly half of the active rigs in the Marcellus/Utica. Patterson CEO Andy Hendricks made a prediction in a recent interview: Rising US natural gas exports and domestic demand from AI data centers will lead to a shortage of fracking equipment later this decade.

ProFrac and Seismos Bring "Closed-Loop Fracking" to U.S. Shale - Marcellus Drilling News - click for larger version - ProFrac Holding Corp. and Seismos, Inc. announced the successful deployment of a commercial-scale closed-loop fracturing program in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk basins (in Texas). Completing 183 stages in early 2026, the partnership utilized real-time, intra-stage optimization driven by direct in-well subsurface measurements. By integrating Seismos's SAFA™ system with ProFrac's ProPilot® surface automation, the technology executes corrective adjustments within minutes. This data-driven approach improved fracking efficiency by up to 7.5%, with the potential to boost overall productivity by 20%. This innovation shifts industry practice from passive monitoring to active control of fracturing outcomes, maximizing the productive potential of every stage through precise, automated execution. The question is, is this technology coming to the Marcellus/Utica?

Up to 8% of M-U Molecules Currently Restricted Due to Pipe Issues -Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve recently begun to highlight flow restrictions along pipelines that carry Marcellus/Utica molecules. When flows slow or stop (because they can’t reach other markets), the price typically falls because local supply exceeds local demand. In the middle of Winter Storm Fern in January, outages and freeze-offs led to significant stress with production dropping 10-12% due to pipeline and well issues (see Flow Restrictions, Freeze-Offs Lead to 10-12% Drop in M-U). We checked this morning and, as is typical, there are some restrictions that suppress outbound flows by 5-8%. We have the list of which pipelines are currently affected.

Company spills over 1M gallons of drilling fluid into mine during pipeline construction - The Allegheny Front - An oil and gas company lost over a million gallons of drilling fluid into an abandoned coal mine in Washington County over a period of months, state records show.Contractors for the pipeline company MarkWest Liberty Midstream & Resources LLC lost control of drilling fluid on at least 19 occasions over the fall and winter, according to Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection records. The records show that the company had similar experiences on two other pipelines it built in the area. The fluid went into “a mine void” at the site of the abandoned Primrose Mine in Mount Pleasant Township during drilling for a new pipeline, the Chiarelli to Imperial Pipeline Project, between October and January. The mine was active in the early 1900s, according to state records. The fluid is used to make drilling easier during horizontal directional drilling, a common technique used to bore holes underground for pipelines. The fluid, classified as industrial waste under state law, contained a mix of water, soda ash and bentonite clay, along with a product called Max Gel, according to DEP records. Max Gel is a silicone-based product used in drilling fluid. The company said in an email that the mixture is nontoxic and approved by the DEP, and that it’s monitoring for surface water contamination, but hasn’t found any. The losses of fluid were first reported by PA Environment Digest, a website run by former DEP secretary David Hess. Cat Lodge, who lives in nearby Robinson Township, doesn’t think the DEP should have allowed the company to keep drilling through the area of the abandoned mine. She’s worried about where the fluid ended up.“Where did it go? And what do you do now if it winds up in somebody’s well water?” Lodge said. “I wouldn’t want this in my drinking water. I wouldn’t it in my animals’ drinking water. If it hits the waters of the Commonwealth, this could be hazardous to fish.” The company told the DEP it did not contact local residents or test nearby groundwater.Lodge thinks residents should know more about incidents like these.  “We need to know if something is in our water; if we’re exposed to something, we should know to protect ourselves,” Lodge said. DEP spokeswoman Laina Aquiline said in an emailed statement that the agency “is continuing to investigate the reported loss of drilling fluids that occurred during horizontal directional drilling (HDD) activities associated with a MarkWest project. Because the investigation is ongoing, DEP cannot comment on potential future enforcement actions.”

Where wells run deep, biodiversity runs thin  -As the United States continues to lead global oil and gas production—accounting for roughly 20% of worldwide output in 2024—understanding how different extraction methods affect ecosystems has never been more urgent. A new study in ACS ES&T Water offers new clarity: conventional, often decades-old oil-and-gas infrastructure leaves a deeper, more persistent mark on freshwater biodiversity than unconventional shale (fracking) development. The research was conducted by a multi-institutional team led by Ryan Olivier-Meehan, a former undergraduate and now a graduate student in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (EES) in the College of Arts and Sciences at Syracuse University, in collaboration with EES Assistant Professor Tao Wen and partners at UCLA, Carnegie Institution for Science and the University of Colorado Boulder. Their analysis integrates ecology, geology, and data science to move the conversation beyond assumptions and toward evidence-based environmental stewardship.The study focused on streams in Pennsylvania, which Wen describes as the perfect natural laboratory. "Pennsylvania has a very long history of conventional oil and gas drilling with some wells dating back more than 100 years," notes Wen. "At the same time, it has been at the center of modern shale gas development. On top of that, the state has a very strong stream monitoring program." This overlap of legacy infrastructure, newer technology, and consistent biological data created a unique chance to compare ecological impacts at scale. "What makes this moment special is that we now have decades of high-quality biological monitoring data available," Wen says. "That gave us a rare opportunity to step back and ask, what has all of this development meant for stream life at a statewide scale?" To quantify ecological change, the team analyzed more than 6,800 benthic macroinvertebrate samples, which include bottom-dwelling insect larvae, small crustaceans, and worms. They compared them across watershed characteristics and detailed oil-and-gas records. The team then applied modeling and network analysis to tease apart the relative influences of shale versus conventional development on community composition and biological integrity."Benthic macroinvertebrates are excellent indicators of stream health because they live in the water year-round, constantly exposed to local conditions," says Olivier-Meehan. "If conditions deteriorate, sensitive species disappear and are replaced by more tolerant ones. By looking at the community as a whole, we get a long-term picture of stream condition—not just a snapshot of water chemistry on a single day."These organisms also form the base of the food web. They recycle nutrients, break down organic matter, and support fish and bird populations. Therefore, understanding how drilling affects their biodiversity is essential, because any disruption to these foundational species can ripple upward through the entire ecosystem and signal broader declines in watershed health.The statewide patterns were clear. Conventional development was linked with fewer species, less variety among them, and an overall decline in the ecosystem's health. It also caused the community of aquatic organisms to shift toward hardy, pollution-tolerant species—signs that the ecosystem is becoming less resilient. The effects from shale development showed limited but detectable effects."Public debate often centers on shale gas because it's newer and more visible. Our results show the story is more nuanced," says Olivier-Meehan. "In Pennsylvania, conventional drilling—much more widespread and often decades old—was more strongly associated with declines in stream biodiversity."The researchers stress that this does not imply shale development is impact-free. Rather, environmental risk reflects the age and density (number of wells within a specific region) along with infrastructure, regulatory oversight, and landscape factors that influence ecological impacts.

PA DEP Signals Recommendation on Shale Drilling Setbacks by Year End - Marcellus Drilling News - It's time to make a LOT of noise with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) if you care about Marcellus drilling continuing in the Keystone State. In December, the Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) accepted a petition by radical green groups, including the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project, to “study” the issue of increasing setbacks for shale drilling so far that it would ban ALL new Marcellus/Utica drilling in the Keystone State, which is no exaggeration (see EQB Votes to Consider Ban on Marcellus Drilling Via Crazy Setbacks). Yesterday, the Shapiro DEP told the EQB it is actively reviewing the rulemaking petition and will have a recommendation on setbacks for the board by the end of this year.

Frac Spreads Strengthen in March -- Frac spreads strengthened in March 2026, averaging $4.09/MMBtu so far—up 37% from February and 10% above the $3.70/MMBtu recorded in March 2025. Propane remains the largest contributor at $1.46/MMBtu, with natural gasoline next at $1.29/MMBtu. Propane is below year-ago levels, while natural gasoline is higher, and both remain the primary drivers of the overall spread. Normal butane and isobutane provide additional support at $0.72/MMBtu and $0.42/MMBtu, respectively. The frac spread for ethane, which was slightly negative in January, has climbed steadily and now stands at $0.21/MMBtu.

EIA Lowers Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast Despite Iran War Fallout -- Lower 48 benchmark natural gas price expectations were revised downward despite recent spikes amid the fog of war in Iran, a new U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast released Tuesday showed. Chart titled “NGI’s Henry Hub Forward Fixed Price Curve” showing U.S. natural gas forward prices from May 2026 through early 2028. Prices rise from just above $3.10/MMBtu in mid-2026 to a peak above $5.00/MMBtu around January 2027, fall sharply to near $3.20/MMBtu by mid-2027, then climb again toward about $4.90/MMBtu entering early 2028 before dropping back near $3.45/MMBtu.  At A Glance:
EIA sees Henry Hub around $3.80
Forecast 13% less than last month
Agency sees 2027 price near $3.90

Falling Natural Gas Prices Drive Coal-to-Gas Switching Surge  -Natural gas has grabbed back share of the U.S. thermal generation stack over the past month as plunging spot prices triggered a wave of coal-to-gas switching. Chart comparing NGI’s National Average Daily Natural Gas Price with natural gas’ share of the U.S. thermal power generation stack from March 2025 to March 2026, showing gas supply frequently providing about 60–75% of generation and a price spike near $50/MMBtu in early February 2026. At A Glance:
Coal-to-gas switching lifts gas share
Gas tops 72% of thermal stack
Solar growth caps longer-term gains

PADD 1 Propane Supply Remains Tight as U.S. Inventories Draw and Exports Rise | RBN Energy  - The EIA reported a 1.7 MMbbl draw in U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended March 6, exceeding industry expectations for a 1.3 MMbbl decline. Total stocks now stand at 71.7 MMbbl, which is 26.4 MMbbl (58%) higher than the same week in 2025 and 10.7 MMbbl (18%) above the five-year maximum. Inventories are also 25.2 MMbbl (54%) above the five-year average. PADD 1 (East Coast) propane inventories fell by 848 Mbbl to 2.7 MMbbl, leaving stocks 401 Mbbl, or 13%, below year-ago levels and 1.4 MMbbl, or 34%, below the five-year average. Stocks are also 268 Mbbl, or 9%, below the five-year minimum, underscoring tight regional supply.  Weekly propane exports reported by the EIA rose by 426 Mb/d to 2 MMb/d, exceeding the year-to-date average of 1.93 MMb/d. Exports also surpassed the four-week average of 1.91 MMb/d and were well above the 1.72 MMb/d reported during the same week last year.

U.S. LPG Terminaling Rates Soar - Gulf Coast LPG terminaling fees have spiked to 30 c/gal, a level not seen since late 2024, and a direct consequence of the Iran war. For most of the past five years, Gulf Coast spot LPG terminaling fees meandered well below their long-run average of roughly 8 c/gallon (left graph, red dashed line), with only occasional spikes — most notably a brief surge toward 30 c/gallon in late 2024, before collapsing back to the 4–5 c/gallon range through most of 2025. Now fees have rocketed back to 30 c/gallon almost overnight according to OPIS. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February triggered an effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 40% of global LPG supply flows. With Middle East cargoes stranded, several VLGCs (Very Large Gas Carriers, the industry’s LPG workhorse vessel) loaded from the Persian Gulf and are drifting at sea, unable to transit the strait. Consequently, Asian buyers are desperately competing for U.S. Gulf Coast supplies. That sudden stampede to U.S. export terminals is exactly what the spiking daily fee line and the highlighted data point in the right-hand graph are showing: The global market is repricing American LPG in real time as the world scrambles for supply alternatives.

Trump Considers Jones Act Waiver After War in Iran Sends Oil, Natural Gas Prices Surging -The White House is weighing a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act that would allow foreign tankers to move fuel between U.S. ports, part of a broader effort to blunt rising energy costs after Iran choked off a critical artery of global trade in response to U.S.-Israeli military strikes over the past two weeks.Map of Arabian Peninsula Maritime Chokepoints highlighting key global energy transit routes including the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and Djibouti, the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline in Egypt, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline, major pathways for Middle East oil and LNG shipments to Europe and global markets.At A Glance:
30-day Jones Act waiver considered
Would follow other emergency actions
Natural gas and oil prices jump amid war

White House Announces It May Grant 30-Day Jones Act Waivers for O&G -Marcellus Drilling News- Finally! The White House is seriously considering (and will likely sign) a temporary waiver suspending the Jones Act for 30 days. The Trump administration is considering a temporary suspension of the Jones Act to help lower gasoline prices, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirming a formal review of the policy. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, the plan involves issuing 30-day waivers that would allow foreign-flagged tankers to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast and other U.S. hubs to East Coast refiners, a move that shipping and oil companies have already been advised to prepare for.

Golden Pass Nears First LNG Cargo - Golden Pass LNG is nearing startup, with Train 1 expected to produce its first LNG cargo by late March, adding new capacity to the U.S. LNG system.Golden Pass has taken significant feedgas volumes since Feb. 17, when intake jumped from around 30 MMcf/d to 171 MMcf/d. Last week, intake was reduced, and the terminal did not take any feedgas for a few days. This is a normal part of commissioning and does not necessarily indicate issues at the terminal. We expect fluctuations during the commissioning process. Train 1, now ramping up, will require about 850 MMcf/d of feedgas at full utilization. Golden Pass will push U.S. feedgas demand higher over the coming months.  Our LNG Voyager Weekly Report added new data on March 10 on Golden Pass. Gulf Run (blue shaded area in the chart below) and Midcoast Pipeline (red shaded area) are delivering gas onto the header pipeline, with some volumes used as feedgas and some delivered to other pipelines in the area. Golden Pass is an anchor shipper on Gulf Run, holding 1.1 Bcf/d of capacity on the line from the Haynesville area to the Sabine River area, and a significant share of its feedgas is expected from Gulf Run.

Gulf Coast Facing ‘Gas Storage Problem’ as LNG Exports Grow U.S. natural gas storage capacity is failing to keep pace with market growth overall, which can cause headaches during periods of sharp demand spikes and declines alike – particularly for Gulf Coast LNG exporters.Chart showing U.S. natural gas demand growth versus storage capacity from 2012–2025, with domestic consumption plus LNG exports rising sharply and displaying strong seasonal peaks while working gas storage capacity remains nearly flat, highlighting how U.S. natural gas demand growth has outpaced storage expansion, according to EIA and API data.At A Glance:
Natural gas market growth outpacing storage
Gulf region vulnerable to demand, supply shocks
Storage buffer seen shrinking as exports grow

Venture Global Poised to Take U.S. LNG Export Crown After Reaching FID on Second Phase of CP2 -Venture Global Inc. said Friday it has reached a positive final investment decision (FID) on the second phase of its CP2 LNG project under construction in Cameron Parish, LA, marking the first U.S. export plant to be sanctioned in 2026. At A Glance:
Project would push output above 60 Mt/y
CP2 is largest financing to date at $53B
Third phase advancing at Plaquemines LNG

Texas LNG Steps Closer to FID After Tapping Kiewit to Lead Construction -An affiliate of Glenfarne Group LLC has signed a fixed-price contract with Kiewit Energy Group Inc. to build the Texas LNG facility.Under the agreement, Kiewit would be responsible for engineering, procurement of equipment, module fabrication, construction and commissioning of the 4 million tons/year (Mt/y) facility proposed for the Port of Brownsville in South Texas.

US natgas prices at Waha Hub in Texas remain negative for record 25th day - U.S. spot natural gas prices for Thursday at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. Longer-term, energy firms will likely boost Permian output when more gas pipes enter service as soaring oil prices from the Iran war encourage oil and associated gas production, and as gas demand rises to feed fast-growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and to produce electricity for power-hungry data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Analysts have long said negative prices, which force some energy firms to pay others to take gas associated with their oil production, were a sure sign that the Permian region, which spans West Texas and eastern New Mexico, needs more gas pipes. More pipes are on the way this year, but not soon enough to handle all the gas currently coming out of the ground. “Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks,” analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Permian gas output has hit record highs every year since around 2013, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 2009, reaching 27.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 – enough to supply over a quarter of U.S. demand. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025), making the Permian the fastest-growing and second-biggest gas-producing shale basin in the country behind the Marcellus/Utica Shale in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA’s latest estimates. “Longer term… higher oil prices encouraging more oil production and future associated gas suggests a huge supply tailwind as new Permian pipelines come online in the back half of 2026,” EBW said. Energy firms in the Permian have been willing to take some losses on gas because they can make up for those with profits from selling oil. Negative gas prices were not very common a decade ago when environmental rules were less strict and many drillers could flare or burn off some of their unwanted gas. But in recent years, that gas has become increasingly valuable as a fuel to generate electricity used by power-hungry U.S. data centers and for export via pipeline to Mexico and as LNG to markets around the world. In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Thursday, down from minus $5.40 for Wednesday and a record minus $7.15 for Tuesday. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 34 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative 37 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).29dk2902l

Permian Pipeline Constraints Push Waha Gas Prices Negative for 25th Straight Day Pipeline constraints in the Permian Basin are keeping natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in negative territory for a record 25 straight days, underscoring the urgent need for new takeaway capacity from the nation’s largest oil-producing region. (Reuters) — U.S. spot natural gas prices for March 12 at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. Longer-term, energy firms will likely boost Permian output when more gas pipes enter service as soaring oil prices from the Iran war encourage oil and associated gas production, and as gas demand rises to feed fast-growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and to produce electricity for power-hungry data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Analysts have long said negative prices, which force some energy firms to pay others to take gas associated with their oil production, were a sure sign that the Permian region, which spans West Texas and eastern New Mexico, needs more gas pipes. More pipes are on the way this year, but not soon enough to handle all the gas currently coming out of the ground. "Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks," analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Permian gas output has hit record highs every year since around 2013, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 2009, reaching 27.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 - enough to supply over a quarter of U.S. demand. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025), making the Permian the fastest-growing and second-biggest gas-producing shale basin in the country behind the Marcellus/Utica Shale in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA's latest estimates. "Longer term ... higher oil prices encouraging more oil production and future associated gas suggests a huge supply tailwind as new Permian pipelines come online in the back half of 2026," EBW said. Energy firms in the Permian have been willing to take some losses on gas because they can make up for those with profits from selling oil. Negative gas prices were not very common a decade ago when environmental rules were less strict and many drillers could flare or burn off some of their unwanted gas. But in recent years, that gas has become increasingly valuable as a fuel to generate electricity used by power-hungry U.S. data centers and for export via pipeline to Mexico and as LNG to markets around the world. In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for March 12, down from minus $5.40 for March 11 and a record minus $7.15 for March 10. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 34 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative 37 cents per MMBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

‘Drill Baby, Drill’ Ain’t Going To Save the GOP From a War-Driven Affordability Pounding --by David Stockman --There is more history percolating up in the current Iranian madness than just another failed Forever War. It’s going to be the end of the Trumpified GOP too, and that means that a motley menagerie of Dem statists, spenders, regulators, lifers, wokests and outright freaks are likely to be swept back into power in the elections just ahead. Sadly, that will likely mark the end of capitalist prosperity and constitutional liberty in America as we have known it, too. The truth is, only the old time GOP committed to free markets, fiscal rectitude, sound money, small, decentralized government and non-intervention abroad had any chance at all of reversing the 20th century tide of insolvent, inflationary, debt-encumbered Big Government. But that GOP of yesteryear was already deader than a doornail after three terms of the Bush’s spending, bailouts and money-printing – even before the Trumpified GOP delivered the coup de grace. That is, by going full retard on spending, borrowing, money-printing, protectionism, nativism and random government regulation and subsidization on the specious grounds of “national security”. On another occasion we will get into a fuller amplification of all the manifold statist sins of the now thoroughly Trumpified GOP. But in the meanwhile, it might be well to recognize that Donald Trump unaccountably rode into office a second time against all reason because, and only because, AFFORDABILITY!Since services inflation peaked in Q1 2023, the decline in headline CPI has been driven overwhelmingly by the collapse of global oil prices and gas pump prices especially. To wit, the headline CPI figure is still up at a +2.84% per annum rate, but even that is due to a negative -3.18% inflation rate for gasoline and +1.83% rate for groceries. By contrast, the part of the CPI that the Fed can impact most directly in the short-run is the above displayed CPI for services (shelter, medical care, education, household and business services etc.). Yet despite its cooling from the peak rate of 7.1% in Q1 2023, the annualized increase since then has still posted at +4.07% per annum and is now heading higher as the Fed’s printing press begins to again spill excess fiat credit into the financial system. In this context, it appears that the Donald and his MAGA men believe that their “drill baby, drill” mantra will shield the GOP from a rising headline inflation rate and “affordability” backlash at the polls next November. Yet they could not be more completely and fatally wrong. That’s because the price at the pump in Podunk Iowa is set by the supply and demand balance in the global crude oil and product markets, not by domestic production levels. But as we will amplify in detail in Part 2, any further modest gains in domestic production would not even begin to off-set the large shortfalls that are virtually certain to materialize in the 103 million barrel per day global petroleum market, as the Persian Gulf goes up in flames under the bombs and missiles that will be flying from both sides for weeks and weeks yet to come. In any event, drill, baby drill has caused domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas to soar since the production bottom was reached in 2007-2009 period. But as we will show in Part 2, global and domestic petroleum prices have not remotely tracked the production paths shown below. Any further crude oil production increases from the current 13.5 million barrels per day might amount to a few hundred thousand b/d at best. And that would be a drop in the bucket of the global 103 million barrels per day market, which stands to loose a substantial fraction of the 20 mb/d that transits thru the Strait of Hormuz and especially out of the Iranian energy fields.

Trump taps oil reserves as Iran conflict spikes prices - President Trump plans to tap into the U.S.’s oil stockpile, releasing 172 million barrels of oil. Asked about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during a visit to Ohio, Trump told TV station Local 12, “I filled it up once, and I’ll fill it up again, but right now, we’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down.” Shortly thereafter, the Energy Department issued a press release saying the administration would release 172 million barrels starting next week. In a statement, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the release could take approximately 120 days. The announcement comes hours after the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which the U.S. is a member, said that collectively, its members would release 400 million barrels of oil as part of an effort to bring down prices, the largest such release ever. Wright said in his statement that the release would be part of the larger IEA effort. “I’m pleased to report that earlier today, the International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from various national petroleum reserves around the world,” Trump said at a rally in Kentucky. Oil prices have risen as Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil choke point. As of last week, the U.S. oil stockpile had more than 415 million barrels of oil. Former President Biden announced a drawdown of 180 million barrels from the reserve in 2022 to combat rising energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Republicans including Trump have criticized Biden for his move to take oil from the reserve, saying it should be used for military reasons rather than to lower prices.

Louisiana nears deal with ConocoPhillips over coastal erosion - Louisiana has reached a tentative agreement with ConocoPhillips to settle years of litigation over the oil major’s contribution to the state’s shrinking coastline.Gov. Jeff Landry announced at a coastal advisory commission meeting last week that the state and the energy company are “words away from resolving the longstanding coastal litigation claims.”“I have done my part and brought the parties together,” said Landry, a Republican. “I have negotiated this deal with the help of others, and I have put my signature on it. We now need the leadership of our coastal parishes to finish the job.” The pending agreement follows dozens of lawsuits launched by Plaquemines, Cameron and other Louisiana parishes against oil majors beginning in 2013. The lawsuits seek millions of dollars in damages and allege the companies failed to obtain proper permits for drilling activity along the coastline, following the enactment of Louisiana’s Coastal Resources Management Act in 1980.

Spill cleanup under way at Louisiana offshore oil port -- The U.S. Coast Guard is responding to a spill at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the United States' only VLCC-capable loading terminal. The spill began nine days ago, according to LOOP, and remediation work is still proceeding. On February 26, crude oil was discovered near its offshore loading terminal. The leak was caused by a material failure of a cargo transfer hose, LOOP said. The source of the leak has been secured, the Coast Guard said. Local TV station WWL Louisiana first reported the spill based on residents' reports, and confirmed the presence of a slick using satellite imaging. An estimated 32,000 gallons of oil were released, and spill recovery efforts are under way. A remarkable 28,000 gallons of crude - nearly 90 percent of the spill - has been recovered. More than 460 people and 60 vessels are at work on the cleanup, and work continues. LOOP was built to take import deliveries of crude oil, but in the 2010s, the U.S. lifted a ban on oil exports and the terminal switched to shipping outbound cargoes. It is connected to 60 million barrels of underground salt cavern storage capacity - most of it dedicated to offshore production - and another 12 million barrels in aboveground tanks. In initial configuration, its 48-inch pipe was designed to handle 1.2 million bpd; the firm says that it has moved 15 billion barrels over its long lifespan.

Coast Guard responds to LOOP oil spill -- The U.S. Coast Guard is responding to a spill at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the country’s only VLCC-capable loading terminal, reports Maritime Executive. The spill began Feb. 26, according to LOOP, and remediation work is still proceeding.The leak was caused by a material failure of a cargo transfer hose, LOOP said. The source of the leak has been secured Local TV station WWL Louisiana first reported the spill based on residents’ reports, and confirmed the presence of a slick using satellite imaging. An estimated 32,000 gallons of oil were released and spill recovery efforts are under way. A remarkable 28,000 gallons of crude has been recovered. More than 460 people and 60 vessels are at work on the cleanup, and work continues.

First New U.S. Oil Refinery in 50 Years Coming to Texas - For decades, America has experienced refinery closures while Washington politicians implemented policies that hurt our energy sector. But President Trump and his administration are working to bring back American Energy Dominance. President Trump announced this week that the first new oil refinery built in the United States in fifty years will be constructed in Brownsville, Texas. The project, led by America First Refining, marks a historic investment in America’s energy future and a significant step toward restoring our energy sector. President Trump posted to Truth Social, “America is returning to REAL ENERGY DOMINANCE! Today I am proud to announce that America First Refining is opening the FIRST new U.S. Oil Refinery in 50 YEARS in Brownsville, Texas. “THIS IS A HISTORIC $300 BILLION DOLLAR DEAL — THE BIGGEST IN U.S. HISTORY, A MASSIVE WIN for American Workers, Energy, and the GREAT People of South Texas!” The announcement is also a significant win for American workers. A new refinery will create jobs in the region and support President Trump’s energy dominance agenda. Energy dominance isn’t just about producing more oil and natural gas. It’s about ensuring the United States has the infrastructure to process, refine, and deliver that energy efficiently.

For the U.S. Refining Sector, ‘Energy Dominance’ Doesn’t Mean Going it Alone | RBN Energy  -The U.S. boasts the world’s second-largest refining complex (after China) but has the most complex/dynamic facilities and significant edges over other developed economies in access to crude oil and natural gas. And while domestic demand may be stagnating, the U.S. remains a global leader in refined product exports, in large part due to the structural advantages noted above, but also, and probably even more importantly, due to the free-market environment in which the industry is allowed to operate. The other major refining markets face their own set of headwinds. While China surpassed the U.S. to become the largest global refiner by capacity in 2023, it remains focused on meeting domestic, not export demand. Refined product demand growth there is slowing, due in large part to the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a greater focus on petrochemical production, along with a deteriorating demographic environment. Refinery capacity additions are also slowing in the Middle East, where despite their advantaged crude supply refiners face high capital costs and significant geopolitical risks — highlighted by the ongoing military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Iran against some of its neighbors. India’s refining sector has seen the fastest growth in recent years, and its private refiners are large, complex and efficient. It has benefited from access to sanctioned Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine, and additional growth in Venezuelan crude production could bring future benefits (more on Venezuela below), but India will remain dependent on imported crude and natural gas, with the potential for additional regulatory issues and higher costs.The U.S. refining sector has a number of inherent advantages, but a significant part of its success is that it doesn’t operate as an island unto itself. For starters, U.S. refiners import significant volumes of crude and feedstocks — primarily heavy crude/resid and low-cost intermediates, which complex refineries can upgrade very cost effectively. As shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S. has continued to import significant quantities of crude oil (blue line) even as domestic production (green line) has more than doubled over the past 15 years and crude exports (orange line) have steadily moved higher, now averaging about 4 MMb/d. (That level of connectedness also means the U.S. isn't insulated from market-shifting global events, such as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher.)Heavy crudes are an important source of profitability for complex U.S. refiners, but the U.S. doesn’t produce a lot of them, which makes heavy crude from nearby Canada and Latin America essential (another advantage for U.S. refiners, as most heavy crude production comes from within the Western Hemisphere). Total Western Hemisphere production of heavy crude (<25 API) declined from about 7.2 MMb/d in 2016 to a low of 5.8 MMb/d in 2020, then recovered to around 6.3 MMb/d in 2025 due to continued Canadian production growth and some recovery in Venezuelan heavy crude supply, a figure that looks likely to increase in the coming years if the situation in Venezuela improves (see Take Me Money and Run Venezuela and Round and Round). By comparison, total U.S. production of heavy crude has continued to decline, falling from about 600 Mb/d in 2016 to just over 300 Mb/d in 2025.As domestic demand for refined fuels declines over time, the U.S. refining industry will have to find new homes for its production, another reason connections to the global market are more important than ever. According to the latest Future of Fuels report from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) refiners are expected to add 400 Mb/d of net capacity from 2025 to 2045 via “capacity creep,” but for that to happen exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel will have to grow by about 1.1 MMb/d (43% gasoline) during that period. As we wrote in Mixed Signals, PADD 3 refiners (see Figure 2 below) are particularly advantaged in several ways:

• The supply, demand and operational/cost advantages enjoyed by Gulf Coast refiners, particularly compared to refiners in other developed countries and in key export markets such as Latin America, are structural in most cases.
• High natural gas costs and elevated freight prices have added to PADD 3’s advantages against LNG- and long-haul, marine-dependent refiners in Europe and Asia. While the natural gas and freight cost advantages have declined since peaking in 2022, they remain higher than pre-COVID levels.
• Loss of access to Russian energy (crude and natural gas) adds to the competitive disadvantages of European refiners and will lead to continued capacity declines in Western Europe and Russia, another plus for PADD 3 refiners, and provides an opening for more exports to West Africa (which has been supplied by European refineries).

Legal fights continue as reroute of Line 5 pipeline begins - Great Lakes Now  - A network of state and regional regulators keeps Indiana's electric grid — a complex ecosystem of power plants, substations and transmission lines — operating smoothly. But recently, the federal government started meddling. In December, the Department of Energy bypassed state and regional regulators with a contentious legal maneuver to extend the lives of two aging Indiana coal plants. The Northern Indiana Public Service Company's (NIPSCO) R.M. Schahfer Generating Station in Jasper County and CenterPoint Energy's F.B. Culley Generating Station in Warrick County were both scheduled to retire by the end of 2025, but the DOE ordered them to stay online until at least March 23, 2026.Now, a contentious legal battle is materializing in response.National and local environmental and consumer advocacy groups initially filed a legal challenge against the DOE, arguing the department lacked sufficient evidence or authority to issue such orders. Additional groups, including citizens utility boards from across the Midwest, are digging their heels in as the utilities keep the plants online in accordance with DOE orders. Plant operation costs are racking up, and now, both utilities want ratepayers from across the midcontinental energy grid to foot these bills. Coal has a complicated reputation. Many view it as the backbone of American's dominance in the energy industry, but research over the past several decades has linked coal to human fatalities and ecological crises.Coal units emit deadly, toxic particulate matter, awash with contaminates like heavy metals, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. In the mid-2010s, researchers attributed a significant drop in the percentage of deaths associated with coal particulate matter to coal plant retirements and pollution regulations enacted during the Obama administration. Coal burning power plants are also significant producers of carbon dioxide, a planet-warming gas, and once burned, the fuel leaves a dangerous ashy residue that readily contaminates groundwater and is difficult to remediate. Still, some view strict coal regulation as a hindrance to economic prosperity. The Trump administration has been on a mission to "end the war on beautiful, clean coal" since taking office. Over the last year, the Environmental Protection Agency has rolled back several environmental regulations that wrangled coal pollution in Indiana, and just last week, the agency repealed the scientific basis for the government's ability to regulate greenhouse gases. Now, the DOE has created an unprecedented modus operandi to keep coal energy afloat. By flexing legal authority through Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, which grants the DOE authority to intervene in local energy grids during emergencies, the department recently halted the retirement of several coal plants across the country.Environmental advocates say the decision to do so was out of line."Historically, these 202(c) orders have been limited to things like a hurricane, an earthquake, or something that in plain American English you would think of as an emergency," Tony Mendoza, a senior staff attorney with the Sierra Club, said.The DOE, however, argues that the orders address a looming energy reliability emergency in the Midwest.Opponents say that no evidence exists to support the existence of an energy emergency — or that keeping the plants open would address it. NIPSCO and CenterPoint Energy have planned to retire the coal plants for several years. In addition, both utilities received approval from state regulators and MISO, the regional grid operator in charge of ensuring electric reliability in much of the Midwest, to close the units.In an email to IndyStar, McKenzie Barbknecht, a MISO spokesperson, explained that the electric grid in the MISO region faces complex challenges, such as harsh weather, base-load power scarcity and supply chain issues. But in terms of the two coal plant retirements, "our planning resource auction indicated adequate resources are available to meet projected demand and maintain reliability in our region," Barbknecht wrote.Several consumer advocacy groups and environmental firms like Earthjustice, the Sierra Club, Citizens Action Coalition and Just Transition Northwest Indiana have filed an appeal to the DOE over the coal plant orders."There are state and federal safeguards to make sure that reliability is assured in Indiana, and those processes are working fine. There is no emergency to address," Mendoza added. Keeping aging coal plants on the grid can be a costly endeavor. Last year the owners of the J. H. Campbell Generating Plant in West Olive, Michigan, reported it cost about $615,000 a day to keep the plant online in compliance with similar orders from the DOE. The utility filed to recover costs from ratepayers across 11 states in the MISO grid.mIn response to questions from IndyStar after the DOE orders were announced, a CenterPoint spokesperson said utility customers would see no "immediate impact" to their bills. The utility said it was "exploring all opportunities to mitigate any potential future bill impact." Now, CenterPoint and NIPSCO have begun to take steps to recover the cost of keeping the coal plants online — which an energy economics consulting group estimates costs $229,000 a day. This could total more than $20 million by the end of the 90-day order and continue to climb if the order is renewed, as happened in Michigan, where the Campbell plant is still running. Both utilities filed complaints to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to recover some costs for the plants. They asked to receive funds from ratepayers across the MISO region, which stretches across 15 states, rather than just charging these costs to local utility customers.This would "help reduce the financial impact on our customers," Jessica Cantarelli, a spokesperson for NIPSCO, wrote in an email.Because the utilities are currently seeking cost recovery, groups like CAC and the Sierra Club are filing legal challenges, joined by citizens utility boards from states like Wisconsin and Illinois, who represent ratepayers inside the MISO grid that could be asked to pay for Indiana coal plants."What the utilities are asking is to spread this across all ratepayers in the grid. That would mean AES ratepayers are paying. Duke ratepayers are paying," said Jennifer Washburn, CAC's regulatory director. "All of us."Mendoza doesn't want to see any ratepayer — whether a NIPSCO customer or not — who isn't benefitting from the coal plants pay for their continued operation. The disputed reroute of the Line 5 pipeline is officially underway. Energy company Enbridge started clearing trees in late February for a segment of pipeline planned to go around the Bad River Reservation, almost seven years after the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued to have the pipeline removed from its land. The tribe has fought against the reroute since then. And while Enbridge is currently free to proceed, new lawsuits could force work to stop.Separately, Michigan Attorney Dana Nessel and Enbridge lawyers faced off before the U.S. Supreme Court late last month as part of another yearslong legal battle: Nessel wants the part of Line 5 that runs under the Straits of Mackinac shut down over fears a spill could cause ecological disaster in the Great Lakes. The Supreme Court is weighing in on whether the case should continue in state court or be moved to federal court, as Enbridge requested. Meanwhile, key decisions are expected soon on the controversial tunnel Enbridge wants to build beneath the lakebed to house the pipeline.A group of private equity investors including a BlackRock subsidiary is planning to buy the utility that serves more than 520,000 people around Indianapolis. The parent company of AES Indiana, among the state’s largest investor-owned utilities, announced last Monday it agreed to be purchased and could go private as soon as this year. The $33 billion deal has some state leaders worried private ownership will worsen already rising electric rates. A major Michigan utility isn’t budging on plans to sell its hydroelectric dams. If state regulators block Consumers Energy from selling 13 dams to a private equity firm, the utility will decommission them all instead, an executive wrote in testimony last week. The sale agreement faces a host of recommended conditions meant to protect Consumers Energy customers. But the utility said it’s not willing to negotiate the terms of the sale despite concerns from state officials and ratepayer advocates. And who will pay to run the coal plants the Trump administration is keeping open past their retirement dates? Federal regulators will have to decide. The U.S. Department of Energy issued emergency orders in December to delay the closure of two Indiana coal plants, citing an energy reliability emergency. Now the utilities that operate the plants are asking regulators to spread the cost of keeping them open to ratepayers throughout the region, not just local customers.

‘Oh, boy’: Oil industry frets over Trump’s profit-minded Iran post - President Donald Trump may think his war in Iran is a boon for the oil industry — but his way of putting it is causing consternation. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,“ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday as crude prices rose to $95 per barrel, a 40 percent increase from where they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago. Trump’s post highlights the industry’s complicated relationship with the president — and its messaging conundrum. While oil companies are benefiting financially from the nearly $30-per-barrel run up in crude prices since the war started, executives are also worried that volatile prices are making business decisions difficult, and high prices will generate public backlash. “The idea that the industry profits from war and death is not one a VP of public relations wants to promote,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Trump’s post drew groans from some in the industry. “Oh, boy….” one energy industry strategist responded when shown Trump’s social media post. Trump’s message also feeds into a perception that oil companies are looking to gouge consumers, said a second industry official granted anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “This highlights the complicated relationship the oil industry has with the president,” the industry official said. “President Trump’s overarching concern is always the price at the pump — and the lower the better. There is also some notion that the oil and gas industry secretly works to raise prices, which is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the industry works on a global and transparent market basis.” Trump’s post also plays into some voters’ cynicism about business in general and the oil industry in particular, said Mark Mizruchi, a University of Michigan professor who focuses on the economic and political behavior of large American corporations. “The interesting thing about Trump’s statement is that he inadvertently stated a belief that a lot of people have — that something like this happens and the oil companies will make a lot of money,” Mizruchi said. “It probably didn’t occur to him that people — including in the industry — weren’t happy about that” statement.

Trump orders restart of Sable Offshore oil operations in California amid Iran war -The Trump administration on Friday directed Sable Offshore to restart its operations of the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of California, which comes as oil and gas prices surge as a result of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s order for oil production, which followed an executive order signed by President Trump on Friday, intends to “address supply disruption risks caused by California policies that have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil,” according to a statement. “The Trump Administration remains committed to putting all Americans and their energy security first,” Wright said in the statement. “Unfortunately, some state leaders have not adhered to those same principles, with potentially disastrous consequences not just for their residents, but also our national security.” “Today’s order will strengthen America’s oil supply and restore a pipeline system vital to our national security and defense, ensuring that West Coast military installations have the reliable energy critical to military readiness,” he added. The Department of Energy stated that Sable Offshore’s facility can produce around 50,000 barrels of oil per day, “a 15 percent increase to California’s in-state oil production, that can replace nearly 1.5 million barrels of foreign crude each month.” The department claimed that “decades of radical state policies targeting reliable energy sources” have resulted in a decline in domestic output. “Today, more than 60 percent of the oil refined in California comes from overseas, with a significant share traveling through the Strait of Hormuz—presenting serious national security threats,” officials said. Trump’s executive order will also prioritize pipeline transportation capacity, ensuring that crude oil produced off California’s coast travels through interstate pipelines. This action intends to allow California’s “reliance on foreign oil vulnerable to geopolitical disruption” to be reduced.

How Canadian Crude Oil Export Capacity Has Struggled to Keep Up With Production --Canadian crude oil production has nearly doubled over the past decade, with nearly all of those gains coming from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). With those volumes continuing to grow, producers, pipeline companies and politicians are discussing options to add export capacity out of the region. In today’s RBN blog, the second of a series, we review the major pipeline projects that have expanded markets for WCSB barrels since 2010 and how the timing of those pipeline capacity additions lined up with WCSB supply growth. As we said in Part 1, Canadian production recently hit 5.6 MMb/d, and all but 4% of that output comes from the WCSB. The near doubling of production since 2010 is largely attributable to Alberta’s oil sands, as producers invested heavily in both newbuild and expansion projects, especially from the late 2000s through the mid-2010s. So far this decade, Canadian production growth has been driven more by improved capacity utilization at oil-sands projects and growing conventional heavy oil and condensate production than by major oil-sands capacity expansion projects.Let’s start by looking at the WCSB’s current export pipeline capacity. Figure 1 below shows the six pipeline systems that transport WCSB crude oil to outside markets, along with other key pipeline systems moving Canadian crude within the U.S. The 3.2-MMb/d Enbridge Mainline system (light-pink lines) moves roughly two-thirds of all WCSB export volumes, transporting an average of nearly 3.1 MMb/d across the North Dakota border in H1 2025. The recently expanded, now 890-Mb/d Trans Mountain system (dark-purple line) is the second-largest system; it moved an average of 730 Mb/d to Pacific markets in H1 2025, while South Bow’s 610-Mb/d Keystone Pipeline (medium-blue line) moved 576 Mb/d across the North Dakota border in the same six months. The remaining three pipelines — Enbridge’s 310-Mb/d Express (medium-pink line), Plains Midstream Canada’s 100-Mb/d Rangeland (dark-green line) and Inter Pipeline’s 20-Mb/d Milk River (light-green line) — together moved around 340 Mb/d across the Montana border in H1 2025.Western Canada’s three largest outbound pipeline systems, the Enbridge Mainline, Keystone and Trans Mountain pipeline systems, have all provided major capacity increases over the past 16 years. Unfortunately for Canadian crude producers, some of these capacity expansions started up much later than originally expected, largely because of permitting delays. These delays have played a key role in persistently steep price discounts for WCSB crude, as production in excess of demand sometimes outpaced export pipeline capacity.We will begin by reviewing the pipeline projects that added export capacity out of the WCSB since the start of 2010 (see Figure 2 below). TransCanada Corp. (now known as TC Energy) began deliveries on its new Keystone Pipeline in June 2010, providing 435 Mb/d of capacity from Hardisty, AB, into the crude oil hub in Patoka, IL. Keystone’s ex-WCSB capacity increased to 590 Mb/d in February 2011, then to 610 Mb/d in 2022. In 2024, TC Energy spun out its crude oil pipeline business as a separate entity, South Bow Corp., which now operates Keystone.

Mexico Imports Near 7 Bcf/d as Middle East War Adds Upside Risk to Natural Gas Prices - There is a general consensus forming that the longer the war in the Middle East goes on, the more upward pressure will be put on North American natural gas prices.Chart showing NGI’s Agua Dulce and Waha bidweek natural gas prices compared with average U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico from March 2023 through March 2026. Blue bars represent exports rising from around 5 Bcf/d in early 2023 to peaks above 8 Bcf/d in 2025–2026. Black line shows Agua Dulce prices generally increasing from roughly $2/MMBtu in 2023 to above $6/MMBtu in early 2026 before falling. Yellow line shows more volatile Waha prices, frequently below Agua Dulce and dropping below $0/MMBtu at times in 2024–2026. Chart highlights growing U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico alongside Permian Basin price volatility.  At A Glance:
War keeps bullish pressure alive
Mexico demand tests new record
Storage build cools U.S. rally

Cargo Diversions, Escalating Price War Threaten Latin American LNG Supply  - The intensifying conflict in the Middle East is upending global energy flows, with LNG vessels originally destined for Latin America now being diverted to higher-paying markets.Table titled “Latin America DES Prices” (NGI, data as of March 11, 2026) showing LNG delivered ex-ship prices for April, May and June across key Latin American import terminals: Escobar, Argentina ($14.06 Apr; $16.87 May; $16.67 Jun), Pecem, Brazil ($13.40; $16.20; $16.00), Quintero, Chile ($13.74; $16.54; $16.34), Colombia ($12.88; $15.69; $15.48), Altamira, Mexico East ($12.67; $15.48; $15.27), Manzanillo, Mexico West ($13.51; $16.31; $16.11), Costa Norte, Panama ($12.89; $15.70; $15.49), with month-to-month price changes highlighted. At A Glance:
Middle East war disrupts LNG shipping
Europe, Asia outbid regional buyers
Brazil dry season heightens demand risk

Europe Remains Top Destination for U.S. LNG Cargoes Despite Asian Supply Squeeze Amid Middle East War -- Europe for now remains the most economic destination for U.S. LNG as the incentives to move cargoes to Asia have been reduced since war broke out in the Middle East late last month and curbed the region’s energy exports.Chart titled “European Union Gas Storage” showing EU natural gas inventories at 335.92 TWh as of March 8, 2026, representing 29.4% of capacity and significantly below both the five-year average and 2025 levels. The graphic includes a seasonal storage curve comparing current inventories with the previous five-year range and average, alongside a five-year chart of EU gas storage fullness showing a sharp drawdown into early 2026. Source: GIE, NGI calculations.At A Glance:
Cargo diversions slow
Some spot tenders not awarded
Competition set to intensify

War Flips LNG Surplus Narrative, Morgan Stanley Says  - The Middle East war and the resulting production halt at the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar, are erasing the projected glut of the fuel that was expected before the region was set on fire, according to Morgan Stanley. Qatar’s state energy firm QatarEnergy last week halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the world’s largest LNG complex, and later issued force majeure notices to buyers, following a drone attack at the facility and the all but halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.   If the outage in Qatar extends beyond one month, this “quickly brings a deficit” to the market, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Sunday, as carried by Bloomberg.Before the war, Morgan Stanley and all other investment banks and forecasters had anticipated a wave of excess LNG supply to hit the market as soon as this year.  But the war in the Middle East is now upending all previous forecasts and assumptions, with the LNG market seen in a deficit very soon if the world’s second-biggest exporter after the United States doesn’t restore supply within a month.Even if the war were to end today, Qatar would likely need “weeks to months” to ‌return to a normal schedule and cycle of energy deliveries, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday.Oil prices could soar to as much as $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if the critical Strait of Hormuz remains off limits for tankers, al-Kaabi told FT.  Oil already hit $100 per barrel on Monday while natural gas prices in Asia and Europe continued to soar. Following a 50% weekly jump last week, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices surged by another 20% as trade opened in Amsterdam on Monday as Asia is attracting most flexible-destination LNG cargoes away from Europe amid renewed competition for supply.  

Shell and TotalEnergies Issue Force Majeure After Qatar LNG Shut Down -- Several major energy traders have begun declaring force majeure to their own customers after Qatar’s LNG shutdown rippled through global gas markets, according to Reuters sources on Wednesday. Companies including Shell and TotalEnergies–both major portfolio players that lift liquefied natural gas from QatarEnergy–have notified downstream buyers that contractual deliveries may be disrupted following Qatar’s suspension of LNG production. The move marks the first clear sign that Qatar’s export stoppage is cascading through the global LNG trading system. QatarEnergy halted production at its giant LNG complex earlier this month and declared force majeure on shipments after drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. The country operates roughly 77 million tons per year of liquefaction capacity and is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. Shell and TotalEnergies are among the largest marketers of Qatari LNG worldwide. Analysts estimate Shell lifts about 6.8 million tons per annum of LNG from Qatar while TotalEnergies takes roughly 5.2 million tons per year, reselling the cargoes to utilities and industrial buyers across Europe and Asia. Neither company publicly confirmed the force majeure declarations. Shell declined to comment, while TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Qatar’s shutdown has already halted LNG exports for days at a time. According to Kpler vessel-tracking data cited by Bloomberg, the country recorded five consecutive days without any LNG shipments — the longest interruption since 2008. The disruption has removed a major portion of global LNG supply from the market. No LNG carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, affecting cargoes from Qatar as well as shipments normally leaving the United Arab Emirates. With Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, the halt has pushed Asian and European gas markets higher as buyers scramble for alternative supply. Some cargoes originally headed to Europe have already been diverted toward higher-priced Asian markets, tightening availability for European utilities. Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that restoring normal LNG deliveries could take “weeks to months,” even if the conflict in the region were to end immediately.

Global Natural Gas Prices Skyrocket Amid Intensifying Middle East War - Global natural gas prices soared Monday, extending their biggest gains since the energy crisis of 2022 as conflict in the Middle East that has cut off a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies shows no signs of ending soon. Chart Of European Union Natural Gas Storage Levels Showing 335.92 TWh In Storage As Of March 7, 2026, Equivalent To 29.4% Full, Significantly Below The Five-Year Average Of 489.68 TWh And Down 91.8 TWh Year Over Year, With Historical Storage Percentage Trends From 2021-2026. At A Glance:
TTF hits high of $23.62
Brent crude near $100
LNG cargoes diverting for Asia

Europe Could Again Cap Natural Gas Prices as Energy Crisis Spirals --- The European Union (EU) is again considering a natural gas price cap as the world confronts another energy crisis that has knocked out more than 20% of global LNG production capacity. Bar chart titled “Europe LNG Imports by Region of Origin” comparing liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe from 2020 through 2025. The United States dominates LNG imports with a sharp rise after 2021, far exceeding other sources including the Russian Federation, Qatar, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, EU & EEA, Latin America & Caribbean, the Middle East, Asia and Other regions. The chart highlights Europe’s growing reliance on U.S. LNG following the decline in Russian pipeline gas supplies. At A Glance:
Last price cap implemented in 2022
Mechanism was never triggered
LNG provides 40% of Europe’s gas supply

Fuel Switching, Industrial Cuts Poised to Push Asian LNG Demand Far Lower if War Continues  - The scramble for LNG supply in Asia is poised to get much worse in the months ahead if war in the Middle East continues.Chart Titled “Asia LNG Parity Prices” Showing Japan/Korea LNG Futures Around $15.92/MMBtu Versus Oil-Linked Parity Levels Near $12–$15/MMBtu, With Brent Crude at $87.80, Coal Prices Near $6.61/MMBtu, And The Implied JCC Slope Rising To About 18% As Asian LNG Prices Spike In Early 2026. At A Glance:
Last of Qatari cargoes reaching region
North Asia working through storage
Worst of crisis yet to come

India Urges LPG Users to Switch to Piped Gas Amid Supply Disruptions  -- India is urging households and businesses to switch from LPG cylinders to piped natural gas where possible as shipping disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict tighten fuel supplies. (Reuters) — India has asked liquefied petroleum gas consumers to avoid panic buying of LPG cylinders and shift to piped natural gas where possible, oil ministry official Sujata Sharma said on March 13. India's crude oil, LPG, and liquefied natural gas supplies have been disrupted due to global shipping constraints after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran halted traffic through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. "LPG is an issue of concern," said Sharma, a joint secretary in the federal oil ministry, adding the government is cracking down on black marketing and hoarding of LPG cylinders in coordination with states. About 333 million households use LPG cylinders, and more than 150 million get gas supplies through pipelines. Sharma said about six million LPG-consuming households could easily switch to piped gas use. "We request them to avail piped gas connection to ease pressure on LPG," she said. She also said that commercial and industrial consumers in major urban cities facing LPG shortages should contact their local city gas distribution company to arrange a piped gas connection. Panic Buying India consumed 33.15 million metric tons of cooking gas last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About 90% of those imports came from the Middle East. Panic buying had pushed daily LPG booking requests to about 7.6 million as of March 12 from around 5.5 million on March 1, with most bookings made online, Sharma said. India has asked refiners to boost LPG production. Domestic LPG production has risen by 30% since March 5, she said. The government has prioritized LPG supplies for households, followed by hospitals and educational institutions, while allowing commercial users to use alternative fuels such as biomass, coal and fuel oil. India has asked Coal India, the country's top coal producer, to make coal available to small and medium enterprises and the hospitality sector, including restaurants and hotels, Sharma said. To overcome the shortage, Indian ports are giving priority berthing to LPG carriers, said Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special secretary at the ministry of shipping.

Saudi Aramco Cuts Oil Output as Hormuz Crisis Chokes Exports -- Saudi Aramco has begun reducing oil production at two of its fields as the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz starts to choke off crude exports across the Gulf, according to sources cited by Reuters on Monday.The move comes just hours before the Saudi oil giant is due to report its 2025 earnings on Tuesday, placing the focus squarely on whether the world’s largest oil exporter can keep crude moving during the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.It was not immediately clear which oilfields were affected or how much production had been reduced. Aramco declined to comment on the reported cuts.The production curbs mark one of the clearest signs yet that the disruption around Hormuz is beginning to constrain supply from the region that normally exports roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. Tanker traffic through the strategic waterway has slowed sharply in recent days as military activity, security risks and insurance cancellations make shipping increasingly difficult. Aramco has begun rerouting some crude cargoes to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, attempting to bypass the Strait of Hormuz using Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline network. The system allows the kingdom to move crude from its eastern oilfields to export terminals on the Red Sea, avoiding the Gulf shipping lane.However, the pipeline cannot fully replace the massive volumes that normally leave Saudi Arabia through Hormuz, meaning export bottlenecks are now beginning to appear as storage tanks fill.Other Gulf producers are running into the same export constraints as the shipping crisis spreads across the region’s energy system.Crude output from Iraq’s southern fields has plunged by roughly 70% since the war began, dropping to about 1.3 million barrels per day from roughly 4.3 million barrels per day previously. Southern Iraq accounts for the vast majority of the country’s oil production and exports.“Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, and the remaining output after the major cut will be used to supply the country’s refineries,” a Basra Oil Company official told Reuters.Export activity has slowed dramatically. On Sunday, only two tankers were loaded at Iraq’s southern export terminals, each carrying about 2 million barrels. The vessels remained in the Persian Gulf according to vessel-tracking data.Kuwait has now begun taking similar steps as storage fills across the region. Kuwait has started shutting in production at several oilfields because the standstill in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has left the country with limited capacity to store additional crude.

Crude Cushion: IEA Announces Record 400 MMbbl Release as Hormuz Flows Remain Blocked | RBN Energy Earlier today (Wednesday, March 11), the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release up to 400 MMbbl from their emergency reserves to the market to help ease supply disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East. As discussed in this week's Crude Billboard, with IEA members collectively holding over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stockpiles, this is the largest coordinated draw in the agency’s history, eclipsing the 183 MMbbl release in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The goal this time is straightforward: cool a fast-moving oil rally triggered by the Middle East conflict and the near shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries in the global oil trade. That chokepoint matters. Roughly one in every five barrels of seaborne crude normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden disruption has sidelined a large share of Persian Gulf exports, reducing activity to just 10%-15% of normal levels, with crude prices soaring into the triple digits over the weekend.  Prices eased briefly after the IEA announcement, but traders are still waiting for the fine print. Key questions remain around how quickly the barrels will reach the market and what the crude-to-products mix will look like. For reference, the last coordinated IEA release in 2022 was about 73% crude and 27% refined products, with diesel making up the largest slice of the product barrels. Some countries have already put numbers on the table. Japan plans to release 80 MMbbl, followed by South Korea (22.5 MMbbl), Germany (19.5 MMbbl), France (up to 14.5 MMbbl), and the U.K. (13.5 MMbbl). The U.S. contribution has not yet been formally announced, though officials indicated President Trump will provide details. The expectation is that the U.S. will carry the largest share through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil which currently holds about 415 MMbbl and can release up to 4.4 MMb/d at full capacity. Even so, SPR barrels typically take about two weeks to reach the market after authorization.   At the high end of those estimates, the stock draw would likely replace only part of the barrels currently missing from global supply if the conflict and closure continue long term. In other words, this move may buy the market some time, but it does not solve the underlying problem. The real pressure valve for global oil balances remains the Strait of Hormuz. Until tanker traffic resumes through that narrow stretch of water, the market will continue to price in the risk that a sizable portion of Gulf supply remains stranded on the wrong side of the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

Oil Prices Surge Over 25% As Iran War Disrupts Supply Near Strait Of Hormuz - On Monday, oil prices in the world markets took off and climbed to their highest point in almost three years, posing pressure on the U.S. shale industry as the energy markets were shaken by the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the supply chains. Early Asian trades saw the rise of the brent crude futures by $24.96, or approximately 27, to 117.65 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) by 25.72 or 28.3 to 116.62, provided by the Reuters market data. WTI had earlier in the session had a brief rise - 31.4 up to $119.48 per barrel with Brent increasing by up to 29 to $119.50 which are the highest since July 2022 comes to pass. The acute rally was the next week to follow a consecutive week of sharp gains, as Brent and WTI have already risen by about 27 and 35.6 percent, respectively, in the past week. The surge indicates the increasing apprehension that the increasing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran may greatly impair oil shipments by the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately, one-fifth of the oil reserves in the world usually flows through the thin waterway between the Persian Gulf and the international markets. Delays in shipping and increased worries on the security of shipping through the strait has negatively affected the tanker movements, especially to the buyers in Asia who are major customers of Middle Eastern crude. Simultaneously, some of the key manufacturers into the area have started reducing production with the conflict escalating. Iraq and Kuwait have already cut output and analysts believe other Gulf producers might not be far behind, should the export routes threaten to be blocked. The spike in price is also spilling over financial markets and causing concerns that energy prices can stay high in several months even in case enmity is gone. "Unless the impact of oil traffic via the Strait of Hormuz will resume soon and whilst the area tensions ease, it can be expected that the upward pressure on prices may continue", according to Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore. The market has also responded to geopolitical uncertainty with an aggravation of the reaction to supply shocks in the Gulf. Reuters according to industry sources claimed that Iraqi oil extraction on its southern fields has been reduced drastically with the export routes passing via the Strait of Hormuz being limited. Three industry sources have said that the entirety of the Iraqi primary producing area has weakened by approximately 70 percent to merely 1.3million barrels daily due to the country being unable to export the crude through the strait. Southern Iraq storage facilities have also been over-filled meaning that the nation has a low capacity to sustain production. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation too has started reducing production and has announced force majeure on shipments, but it did not indicate the extent of cuts. Other regional producers may soon meet the same predicament, according to analysts, as shipping disruptions continue to happen. The further uncertainty to the market has been brought by the further attacks leveled on the energy infrastructure by Iran. The governments of the United Arab Emirates claimed that a drone attack led to the explosion of a fire in one of the oil industry sectors of Fujairah but no casualties were reported. The defence ministry of Saudi Arabia reported that it had intercepted a drone flying into an oilfield at Shaybah, explaining that there is an increasing threat of the facilities that store energy in the region being pulled into the battle. Market sentiment has also been affected by political developments within Iran. Recently the Iranian city of Tehran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in the country following the death of his father Ali Khamenei in the conflict. The denouement of a hard-line successor has solidified the hopes that situation with the United States and Israel might continue. The ambition of the U.S. President Donald Trump to overthrow the regime in Iran has been hampered by the fact that the new leader of Iran is the son of the late leader Satoru Yoshida a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities. The perception hastened purchases because Iran is likely to keep its blockade over the Strait of Hormuz and to attack other oil-producing countries facility as was the case last week. Yoshida also commented that WTI prices may go to $120 and potentially $130 per barrel in case the disturbances persist. U.S. Shale outlook being changed by high Prices. Although increasing crude oil is usually a good change to the U.S. shale producers, the present boom has a complex future to the industry. An increase in oil prices will drive up revenues of shale operator in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. But long-term volatility and geopolitical insecurity can as well interfere with the investment planning, and supply chains and drilling activity. The last several years were characterized by financial discipline, by the U.S. shale companies that have experienced previous periods of boom growth and excessive borrowing. Numerous producers have focused on the returns on their shareholders and debt reduction, instead of aggressively drilling. Consequently, analysts believe that shale production might not react fast to a rise in price as it was the case in other past oil booms. Daniel Hynes (ANZ senior commodity strategist) cautioned that "there are more serious implications of global supply system disruptions when they are sustained over time". The next flag will be whether it could reach a stage where they will need to begin closing in oil wells, which despite being another blow to output it will take time to react when the conflict displays signs of easing also. That would possibly maintain such prices a lot longer. Political discussion in Washington has also enhanced the skyrocketing in prices. U.S. Senate Democrat Majority Whip Chuck Schumer called on President Donald Trump to "order oil to be released to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize the markets and ease consumer pressure". Schumer wrote that President Trump is to release oil in the SPR to stabilize the markets, reduce prices, and prevent the price shock that American families already experience due to his irresponsible war. Energy analysts have observed that a strategic reserve release would only help in the short run, but would not solve the long run market disruptions caused by the Middle East trouble. The world markets are now highly observing the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz where normal tanker traffic is yet to be witnessed. According to traders, additional assaults on shipping routes or energy plants will keep pushing the price of oil even higher in the nearest future. To date, the swift intensified geopolitical tensions and supply shocks have taken crude prices to their highest point since 2022, highlighting the delicate nature in which global energy markets would respond to the situation in the Middle East.

Oil Prices Surge to Highest Levels Since Mid-2022 -- Oil prices surged more than 25% on Monday to their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran. Energy markets are particularly nervous because the crisis is unfolding around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes. Disruptions in tanker movements and rising security risks have already slowed shipping activity, leaving Asian buyers especially vulnerable given their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up $24.96 or 27% at $117.65 per barrel at 0451 GMT - on track for the biggest-ever jump in a single day, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures were up $25.72, or 28.3%, to $116.62. WTI surged 31.4% to a session high of $119.48 a barrel earlier on Monday, while Brent rose as much as 29% to $119.50 a barrel. Before the surge on Monday, Brent had already climbed 27% and WTI by 35.6% last week. “Unless oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon and regional tensions ease, upward pressure on prices is likely to persist,” said Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore. Iraq and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, adding to earlier liquefied natural gas reductions from Qatar, as the war blocked shipments from the Middle East. Analysts expect the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will have to also cut output soon as they run out of oil storage. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel. “With the appointment of the late leader’s son as Iran’s new leader, US President Donald Trump’s goal of regime change in Iran has become more difficult,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities. “That view accelerated buying, as Iran is expected to continue its closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on other oil-producing nations’ facilities, as seen last week,” he said, predicting WTI could rise to $120 and then $130 a barrel in a relatively short period. The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping. “The next flag will be whether it eventually gets to a point where they have to start shutting in oil wells, which not only impacts output even further, it delays a response once the conflict eases as well. That would potentially sustain those prices for much longer,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, three industry sources said on Sunday. Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, said an official with the state-run Basra Oil Company. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure on shipments, though it did not say how much production it would shut. Iran’s attacks on oil infrastructure across the region have continued. Fujairah Media Office said fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone resulting from debris falling, with no injuries reported. Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry said on X it intercepted a drone heading to the Shaybah oilfield. Israel’s military has threatened to kill any replacement for the deceased Ali Khamenei, while Trump said the war might only end once Iran’s military and rulers had been wiped out. Meanwhile, as oil prices surged, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “President Trump should release oil from the SPR now to stabilize markets, bring prices down, and stop the price shock that American families are already feeling thanks to his reckless war,” Schumer said in a statement.

Oil Fails to Stay Above $100 as G7 Mulls Reserve Release  - Oil prices settled in the mid- $90 bbl level after hitting nearly $120 bbl on Monday (3/9) as finance ministers from the Group of Seven(G7) announced plans to release emergency crude reserves to offset a disruption in supply caused by the Iran war in the Middle East. "We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release," the ministers said in a statement, referring to the 1.2 billion bbl the G7 held in coordination with the Paris-based International Energy Agency. The grouping of developed countries was planning an initial release of between 300 million and 400 million bbl, reports said. Crude prices retreated from their highs on reports that Saudi Arabian producers were offering oil on spot markets, in a rare move to fill a potential void in crude supplies. More Recommended for You NYMEX WTI for April delivery settled up $3.87, or 4%, at $94.77 bbl. It surged 11% earlier to a four-year high of $119.48. The ICE Brent contract for May closed up $6.27, or 7%, at $98.96 bbl, after a 10% run up to $119.50. "The bottom line here is that the risk to the supply is still high," "Iran, as long as they have missiles, they can create havoc and it's going to be very difficult to get prices to stay down." In Monday's morning trade, crude prices reached highs not seen since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine on news that Iran had installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader to replace his slain father, Ali Khamenei, against U.S. wishes. It was a sign that the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, now into its 10th day, could drag a notion, underscored by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who said, "as long as attacks continue, there is no point in talking about anything but defense and retaliation against enemies." Tehran's continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz -- where a fifth of the world's oil supply passes -- also underpinned the rally. Reports said only two crude or refined product tankers exited the Persian Gulf on Sunday (3/8), versus the typical daily average of 35 carrying some 21 million bpd petroleum liquids. Downstream, NYMEX gasoline and ULSD futures reached their loftiest levels since July 2022 before retracing. Gasoline for April delivery finished up $0.0618 at $2.8084 gallon, after a run-up to $3.2205. ULSD was the only major component of the NYMEX complex to settle the day in the session in the red, with the front-month contract closing down $0.0358 at $3.5866 gallon, after a peak at $4.4715. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.166 points to 99.145 against a basket of currencies.

Oil dips below $90 after Trump says Iran war 'is very complete' --Oil prices slipped below $90 per barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran "is very complete, pretty much" and the Group of Seven (G7) energy ministers signaled they could release strategic crude reserves to help offset the major supply disruption triggered by the Iran war. Brent crude was down 4.2% at $87.2 per barrel as of 2010GMT Monday, after earlier surging to $119.50. The spike marked the first time oil traded above $100 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3% at $88.3 per barrel, after climbing as high as $119 overnight. The surge in prices followed production cuts by Gulf Arab countries as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to security threats from Iran, disrupting the movement of crude shipments. However, prices sank after Trump told CBS News on Monday that the Iran war “is very complete, pretty much." "(Iran has) no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones," he said, adding that the US is “very far” ahead of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame for the war. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said ships are moving through it now, but also that he is “thinking about taking it over.” Separately, G7 finance ministers discussed the impact of the Iran conflict during a virtual meeting on Monday and signaled readiness to stabilize global energy markets. “We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” they said in a joint statement. The G7 members include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that higher oil prices were a “very small price to pay” for eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat, adding that “only fools would think differently.” Meanwhile, Gulf Arab producers have reduced output as crude accumulates in storage facilities due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers have largely avoided the narrow waterway amid concerns Iran could target vessels transiting the route.

Oil soared to $119 but settled under $100 on Monday - After soaring Monday to hit $119 a barrel, crude oil prices finished down while the military attacks by the U.S., Israel and other middle eastern countries continued against Iran. Reuters indicated early in the session, Brent soared by $26.81 to $119.50 a barrel, and WTI hit a session high of $119.48. Those were the highest intraday prices for both crude benchmarks since June 2022, comparable with all-time highs of $147.50 a barrel for Brent and $147.27 for WTI in July 2008. Since the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, Brent has surged by as much as 65% and WTI 78%. By the close of trading, oil prices still managed a 7% increase following the 29% jump during the session. Prices again rose as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries cut supplies while the war was expanded against Iran. While prices jumped and retreated, the U.S. and other Group of Seven countries considered tapping strategic petroleum reserves. West Texas Intermediate crude finished up $3.87 or 4.3% to settle at $94.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude closed with a gain of $6.27 or 6.8% at $98.96 a barrel, less than its Sunday close of nearly $105 a barrel. The Monday closes for WTI and Brent were their highest settlement prices since August 2022. The gain in crude oil prices resulted in another jump for gasoline prices across the U.S. on Monday as they rose 2 cents per gallon from Sunday to reach a new average of $3.47, according to AAA. Diesel fuel across the nation rose 6 cents and reached $4.65 per gallon Gasoline prices in Oklahoma hit an average of $2.97, an increase of one cent while diesel fuel prices rose 5 cents to reach an average of $4.05. Oklahoma City’s gasoline averaged $3.01, a penny higher than Sunday and its diesel fuel average was $3.99, up 4 cents. The average gasoline price in Tulsa was unchanged at $3 a gallon while diesel fuel went up 6 cents at $4.26 per gallon. Natural gas finished at $3.062 MMBtu after a decline of $0.124 or 3.89%.

Oil Market Extends Selloff as War De-Escalation Hopes Shake Supply Fears - The oil market remained pressured on Tuesday following the market’s sharp sell off on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted that the war in the Middle East could end soon, lowering expectations of prolonged disruptions to oil supply. The oil market retraced some of Monday’s losses as it posted a high of $91.48 in overnight trading. However, the market erased its gains and extended its losses to over $18 as it posted a low of $76.73 in afternoon trading on the news that the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, convened an extraordinary meeting of the group to assess market conditions, while the Group of Seven nations asked the agency to prepare scenarios for the release of emergency oil stockpiles. The market was further pressured after U.S. Energy Secretary said the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The market later bounced off its low ahead of the close following reports that there was no U.S. escort of an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The April WTI contract ended the session down $11.32 at $83.45 and the May Brent contract ended the day down $11.16 at $87.80. The product markets also settled sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 24 cents at $3.3466 and the RB market settling down 16.81 cents at $2.6403.  The EIA said Brent oil prices are set to remain above $95/barrel over the next two months as conflict in the Middle East rages on. Brent crude futures will then fall below $80/barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before falling to around $70/barrel by the end of the year. The effective closure of the critical chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows every day, will cause Mideast oil output to fall further in the coming weeks. The EIA added that those production shut-ins will gradually ease as transit resumes. It said higher oil prices are set to lead to more U.S. oil output and expects U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026 and increase by 220,000 bpd to 13.83 million bpd in 2027. The new forecast represents an increase of about 500,000 barrels from the agency’s previous forecast. It raised U.S. retail gasoline prices by 43 cents from a previous forecast to $3.34/gallon in 2026 and $3.18/gallon in 2027. It raised its retail diesel price forecast for 2026 to $4.12/gallon, up 20.1% from its previous estimate.The U.S. EIA reported that U.S. crude oil exports fell by 3% in 2025 from 2024, the first annual decrease since 2021. The U.S. exported 4.0 million bpd of crude oil, 85 times as much as in 2011, but slightly less than in 2023 and 2024. The EIA also noted U.S. exports decreased to Europe and the Asia and Oceania region, the two top regional destinations for U.S. crude oil. It added exports to Europe decreased by 7%, likely because increased output from OPEC replaced volumes from the U.S., while exports declined by 75% to Singapore and 89% to China. The annual decrease in exports comes despite a 3% increase in crude oil production to a record 13.6 million bpd. U.S. net imports of crude oil decreased to 2.2 million bpd in 2025 from 2.5 million bpd in 2024.

Oil prices tumble by 15% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation – Oil prices plunged by about 15 per cent on Tuesday, a day after soaring to their highest levels since 2022, pressured after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war with Iran could end soon, which should minimize oil supply disruptions. Brent futures fell $14.23, or 14.5 per cent, to $84.73 a barrel at 2:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $14.46, or 15.5 per cent, to $80.31. Prices were even lower at midday, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that the American military had facilitated a shipment of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. "President Trump is maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran," Wright posted at 1:02 p.m. local time before the post appeared to be removed. "The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets," Wright said. Trump's Republicans will soon be campaigning to retain control of U.S. Congress in November midterm elections, with many voters worried about rising energy prices. “This is the market reacting to the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen," said Andrew Lipow, founder of Lipow Oil Associates. "From the administration’s perspective, the move also carries clear optics: lower oil and gasoline prices help ease consumer pain." On Monday, both crude benchmarks surged to a session high above $119 a barrel, their highest since June 2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies. Prices settled with more modest gains on Monday, then retreated in late trade and into Tuesday after Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a call and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide. In addition, Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame. "Clearly Trump's comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank. Israel's foreign minister said Israel is not seeking an endless war with Iran and will coordinate with the U.S. on when to end the fighting. Even if the war ends, oil supplies will not immediately rebound, said Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "When the conflict ends, cranking up the supply chain won't be swift," Flowers said. "Product barrels in storage at refineries or in port might be moved on vessels quite quickly. But if wells are shut-in for a prolonged period, restarting production to full output could take weeks or even longer." In response to Trump, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran would not allow "one litre of oil" to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump was considering easing oil sanctions on Russia related to Moscow's war in Ukraine, and releasing emergency crude stockpiles to help curb spiking prices, according to multiple sources. "Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 (Group of Seven) countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," Priyanka Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova analyst, said in a note. G7 energy ministers stopped short of agreeing on a release of strategic oil reserves on Tuesday and instead asked the International Energy Agency to assess the situation before acting. The U.S. and Israel pounded Iran on Tuesday with what the Pentagon and Iranians on the ground said were the most intense airstrikes of the war, even as global markets bet that Trump will seek to end the conflict soon. Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, said there would be "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 1.9 million barrels per day of crude refining capacity in the Gulf has been shut in due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, consultancy IIR said. "Policy measures may have limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential losses of up to 12 million bpd over the next two weeks," JPMorgan said in a note. In the latest disruption to global supplies, Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery, a source said on Tuesday, after a fire broke out at a facility within the complex following a drone strike. Goldman Sachs said that because the situation remains fluid, it was not changing its oil price forecast for Brent at $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter and WTI at $62 per barrel.

Oil retreats even after Energy Secretary wrongly claims Navy escorted tanker through Strait of Hormuz - Oil prices retreated Tuesday, even after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright wrongly claimed in a social media post that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. “The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday. U.S. crude oil fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 per barrel. Brent crude , the global benchmark, lost 11.28% to settle at $87.80. Prices fell more than 17% immediately after Wright’s post. “I was made aware of this post,” Leavitt said. “I haven’t had a chance to talk to the Energy secretary about it directly.” “However, I know the post was taken down pretty quickly,” she said. Wright had said “the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.” An Energy Department spokesperson, in a statement later Tuesday, said, “A video clip was deleted from Secretary Wright’s official X account after it was determined to be incorrectly captioned by Department of Energy staff.” “President Trump, Secretary Wright, and the rest of the President’s energy team are closely monitoring the situation, speaking with industry leaders, and having the U.S. military draw up additional options to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, including the potential for our Navy to escort tankers,” the spokesperson said. Traffic through the critical Strait has been severely disrupted as oil shippers fear attacks by Iran, keeping ships at anchor. About 20% of global petroleum consumption was exported through the narrow waterway prior to the war. The International Energy Agency will hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to discuss a possible release of emergency stockpiles. The more than 30 members states are advanced economies in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia. They collectively hold 1.2 billion barrels of oil in reserve. The Iran war has triggered the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil industry, according to an analysis by Rapidan Energy. Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that the war will have “catastropic consequences” for the market. “While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Tuesday.

Two Oil Tankers Set Ablaze Near Iraq’s Key Export Terminals Two oil tankers carrying Iraqi oil products caught fire Wednesday after being struck in Iraqi territorial waters near the country’s southern export terminals, according to Iraqi port officials and multiple media reports. The vessels, Vishnu, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker chartered to an Iraqi company, and Zefyros, a Malta-flagged tanker transporting condensate from the Basra Gas Company, were operating near Iraq’s Al-Faw port area close to Basra when the incident occurred. Iraq’s director general of the General Company for Ports, Farhan al-Fartousi, told CNN that 38 crew members, all of whom were foreign nationals, were rescued from the tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO told CNN the vessels were attacked “while present in the sideloading area within Iraqi territorial waters.” Iran claimed responsibility for the attacks via state media, saying an underwater drone attack “blew up two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf tonight." Footage circulating on social media shows thick black smoke rising from the tankers as flames spread across the decks and surrounding water. The tankers could have been carrying up to 400,000 barrels of Iraqi oil and condensate combined, and the attack triggered leaks of fuel into the surrounding waters. Following the incident, Iraqi authorities temporarily halted operations at the country’s oil export ports, although commercial ports remained open. The attack comes amid a sharp rise in maritime incidents across the Persian Gulf as tensions escalate between Iran, the United States, and Israel. At least 14 vessels have been struck in recent weeks, with three confirmed strikes on Wednesday as the conflict continues to escalate. Oil prices continued to rally despite the announcement by the IEA of a record-breaking reserve release.

Six vessels attacked amid reports of Iranian drone boats, sea mines | Al Jazeera - Iranian explosive-laden boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters, according to reports. The ships targeted in late-night ⁠attacks on Wednesday in the Gulf near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officials told the Reuters news agency. One Iraqi port security source said the Zefyros was flagged ‌in Malta. “We recovered the body of a foreign crew member from the water,” one port security official said, as Iraqi rescue teams continued searching for other missing seafarers. It was not immediately clear which ship that person was linked to. “A boat belonging to the Iraqi Ports Company rescued 25 crew members from the two vessels, and the fires are still burning on both ships,” Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the state-run General Company for Ports of Iraq (GCPI), told Reuters. Al-Fartousi told Iraq’s state news agency that oil ports have completely stopped operations following the attacks, while commercial ports continue to function. Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Baghdad, Iraq, Mahmoud Abdelwahed, said the attack on the two tankers was described as sabotage by officials. “Iraqi officials say this is a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty given the fact this act, they say, of sabotage has happened in Iraq’s territorial waters,” Abdelwahed said. Reuters said that reports of the use of explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels, which Ukraine has used with great effect in its war with Russia, come as Iran has blocked oil shipments from transiting the key Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of ⁠the world’s oil and gas transits but has been blocked amid the United States-Israeli war on Iran. Reuters, citing two unnamed sources, also reported on Wednesday that Iran ‌has deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, while US President Donald Trump said US forces had struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels, amid warnings by Trump of severe repercussions should Iran lay mines in the key waterway for global shipping. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have warned that any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted. Early on Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre said an unidentified projectile struck a container ship, causing a small fire, 35 nautical ‌miles (64.8km) north ‌of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates. The crew were reported safe. The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree dry bulk vessel was struck by “two projectiles of unknown origin” while sailing through the strait on Wednesday, causing a fire and damaging the engine room, the ship’s Thai-listed operator Precious Shipping said in a statement. “Three crew members are ⁠reported missing and believed to be trapped in the engine room,” Precious Shipping said. “The company is working with the relevant authorities to rescue these three ⁠missing crew members,” it said, adding that the remaining 20 crew members had been safely evacuated and were ashore in Oman. Images shared by Thai news outlet Khaosod English showed what were reported to be crew members of the ship after their rescue by Oman’s navy. The IRGC said in a statement carried by the semiofficial Tasnim news agency that the ship was “fired upon by Iranian fighters”, suggesting the first direct engagement by the IRGC, which has previously fired missiles or drones. The Japan-flagged container ship ONE Majesty also sustained minor damage on Wednesday from an unknown projectile 25 nautical miles (about 46 kilometres) northwest ⁠of Ras Al-Khaimah in the UAE, two maritime security firms said. Its Japanese owner Mitsui OSK Lines and a spokesperson for Ocean Network Express, its charterer, said the vessel was struck while at anchor in the Gulf, and an inspection of the hull revealed minor damage above the waterline. All crew are safe, they said, adding that the vessel remains fully operational and seaworthy. The owner said the cause of the incident remained unclear and was under investigation. A third vessel, a bulk ‌carrier, was also hit by an unknown projectile approximately 50 nautical miles (about 93km) northwest of Dubai, maritime security firms said. The projectile had damaged the hull of the Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth, maritime risk management company Vanguard said, adding that the vessel’s crew were safe. Owner Star Bulk Carriers said the ship was hit in the hold area while it was anchored. There were no crew injuries and no listing.

Oil Prices Jump After Tanker Attacks In Iraqi Waters Amid Escalating West Asia War  --Global oil markets moved higher after reports of attacks on fuel tankers in Iraqi waters added another layer of uncertainty to energy supplies already strained by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. According to a Reuters report, oil prices climbed after Iraqi officials said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were struck by explosive-laden boats, triggering fires and raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the region.  The latest incident comes as West Asia conflict continues to disrupt energy flows and intensify volatility across global oil markets. Benchmark crude prices rose sharply following the reports of tanker attacks. Brent crude futures increased by $5.69, or 6.19 per cent, to $97.67 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $5.11, or 5.86 per cent, to $92.36, in early Asian trading. The gains reflect mounting concerns that the conflict in West Asia could disrupt supply chains in one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. Energy traders are closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf, where key export routes and infrastructure remain vulnerable to escalation. Tankers Attacked In Iraqi Territorial Waters The price surge followed confirmation from Iraqi officials that two vessels transporting Iraqi fuel oil had been targeted. Farhan al‑Fartousi, director general of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, told Reuters that two foreign tankers were hit by unidentified attackers while operating in Iraqi territorial waters. The strikes caused both vessels to catch fire. Initial findings from Iraqi security officials suggested that explosive‑laden boats launched from Iran were responsible for the attacks, though investigations were still ongoing. The incident marks one of the most direct threats to maritime oil shipments in the region since the latest phase of the conflict began. The tanker attacks come amid broader geopolitical tensions triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran, which has already disrupted energy flows across West Asia. The region plays a central role in the global oil system, and any threat to shipping routes quickly reverberates through commodity markets. Analysts say that disruptions to tanker movements and oil production facilities could tighten global supply conditions if the conflict continues. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the latest escalation appeared to be a strong response to efforts by international authorities to stabilise oil prices. "This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA's overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices," Sycamore told Reuters. In an effort to contain the surge in oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release a record volume of crude from global strategic reserves. The agency announced plans to release around 400 million barrels of oil to stabilise markets facing supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. The United States is contributing the largest portion of the release, providing about 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Reuters. The move is intended to increase supply temporarily and prevent oil prices from spiralling further. However, analysts caution that reserve releases may only offer short‑term relief if geopolitical disruptions continue. A major concern for energy markets remains the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil shipments pass through the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets. If tensions escalate further and tanker traffic is restricted, the impact on global oil supply could be significant. Amid the growing tensions, US President Donald Trump said Washington was closely watching developments in the region’s strategic shipping routes. Trump said the United States was in "very good shape" in its war on Iran and indicated that the administration was monitoring the straits closely. At the same time, intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact despite the conflict.

Crude Oil Jumps 4% as Traders Price In Supply Disruption  - Oil prices rebounded early on Wednesday as the market fears a massive supply crunch from the ongoing blockage at the Strait of Hormuz, which offset reports that the IEA is preparing its largest-ever release from strategic oil stocks. As of 6:31 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, the front-month Brent Crude futures prices moved above $90 per barrel again, having slumped to $88 at close on Tuesday. Brent was trading at $91.15, up by 3.80%. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up above $86 per barrel, at $86.86, after jumping by 4.10% so far on the day. Prices had calmed for a few hours late on Monday and on Tuesday after the market apparently believed U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments that the war in Iran “is very complete, pretty much”.  In addition, reports emerged that the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest-ever release of emergency stocks, of about 400 million barrels. This, if approved, would be more than double the 182 million barrels that IEA member states put on the market after Russia invaded Ukraine and priced spiked above $100 per barrel then, officials with knowledge of the matter told the Wall Street Journal. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency hosted a meeting of G-7 Energy Ministers in Paris to discuss the situation in the Middle East and potentially take measures to mitigate the fallout on the global oil market.IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that the group discussed all available options to stabilize the market, including the possible release of emergency stockpiles held by IEA member countries.On Wednesday, the market started panicking again about the huge supply of crude that cannot leave the Arab Gulf region, where OPEC’s top producers have already slashed crude output amid a lack of storage and blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI Extends Gains, Shrugs Off SPR Release Amid Crude Build, Dip In US Production - Oil prices are higher this morning, shrugging off the well-telegraphed (and practically useless) SPR release. "Oil prices remain volatile and risk sentiment fragile and trading is on the headlines and rapidly evolving conflict in the Middle East," noted Neil Wilson, Saxo UK investor strategist. And while, the main drivers of crude prices remain more global, the domestic supply and demand situation remains noteworthy based on its impact on gasoline (pump) prices. API

• Crude -1.7mm (+1.1mm exp)
• Cushing
• Gasoline -1.8mm
• Distillates -2.3mm

DOE

• Crude +3.82mm (+1.1mm exp)
• Cushing +117k
• Gasoline -3.65mm - biggest draw since Oct 2025
• Distillates -1.35mm

Crude stocks rose more than expected last week (third week in a row) while gasoline stocks saw sizable draws (for the fourth week in a row)... For the third week in a row, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which is now once again making headlines) saw no change... US Crude production dipped modestly last week as the rig count stabilized... Oil prices extended gains...

Oil Soars As 2 Oil Tankers Explode In Persian Gulf, Iraq's Oil Ports Stop Operations -- Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil have been subjected to unidentified attacks within Iraqi territorial waters, causing both vessels to catch fire, according to security sources cited by Baghdad Today and according to the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO). The tankers are:

• Tanker SAFESEA VISHNU, flying flag of Marshall Islands and chartered by one of Iraqi companies contracted with SOMO
• Tanker ZEFYROS, flying flag of Malta and carrying condensate produced by Basra Gas Co.

The tankers - whose cargo was naphtha and condensate, both extremely flammable - were attacked while present in loading area.Tanker ZEFYROS was scheduled to head to Khor Al-Zubair Port on March 12 to load additional 30,000 tons shipment of naphtha. This incident negatively affects Iraq’s security and economy and also represents a threat to safety of maritime navigation and oil activities within Iraqi territorial waters, SOMO says. The attack occurred in the waiting area near the Khor Abdullah waterway, approximately 11 miles from the export port caused a fire on the tanker, leading to significant damage to its structure.According to an Iraqi port official speaking to the Reuters news agency, authorities have successfully evacuated 25 crew members from the two ships. Despite these efforts, the fires have remained ablaze on both vessels.One tanker, which was flying a foreign flag, is believed to be American, though its specific nationality has not been confirmed. The attack took place within Iraq’s territorial waters, but no group has claimed responsibility for the incident.It turns out that perhaps the area is not as "safe" as President Trump said it was. And as a reminder, the US Navy already said it was 'too dangerous' to escort tankers through still. As a result of the tanker explosions, Iraq stopped operations at its oil ports. Iraq was one of the first Persian Gulf majors to start reducing oil production after the near-closure of Hormuz, followed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The cuts forced forced the International Energy Agency to act with a co-ordinated release of 400 million barrels — a historic drawdown that is significantly higher than the volume that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Oil prices are surging higher on the news with WTI back above $91 - now up on the week and 20% higher than yesterday's lows...

Oil Prices Surge Despite Record-Breaking Strategic Reserve Release --Oil prices climbed sharply on Wednesday even after the International Energy Agency announced the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in its history, underscoring the scale of supply concerns stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.At the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $93.96, up 7.69%, while Brent crude stood at $91.98, up 4.76% on the day.The price surge came as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified fears of a prolonged supply shock, offsetting any downward pressure from the IEA’s unprecedented reserve release.The IEA said it would release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves held by its member countries in an emergency effort to stabilize global markets shaken by the ongoing conflict involving Iran.The move dwarfs the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and represents the largest intervention since the agency was created after the 1970s oil crises.Member countries collectively hold roughly 1.2 billion barrels of strategic reserves, which can be tapped during supply emergencies. The United States, which holds the largest stockpile among IEA members with about 416 million barrels, indicated it could release up to 4.4 million barrels per day if necessary.Washington later said it would release 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the coordinated effort, adding that it will take "approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates".Despite the record intervention, oil markets remain focused on the escalating disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.Shipping through the strait has slowed dramatically after multiple vessels were struck by projectiles this week. Maritime security firms reported three additional ships hit on Wednesday, bringing the total number of vessels struck since the conflict began to at least 14.While 400 million barrels is a record-breaking release, it equates to only a few days of global oil production, meaning its impact will be limited if the conflict continues.Oil prices have surged more than 25% since the conflict began, with Brent briefly touching a four-year high of $119 per barrel earlier this week before retreating on expectations that emergency stockpiles would be deployed. Iran has warned global markets to prepare for significantly higher prices as tensions continue to escalate, while energy infrastructure disruptions have already begun appearing across the region.While the IEA's record-breaking release should help ease pressure on oil prices slightly, traders will remain focused on when and whether oil can once again flow freely through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan — Oil prices settled up nearly 5% on Wednesday as fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply disruption fears, and analysts said the International Energy Agency's proposal for a record release of oil reserves is inadequate to ease those worries. Brent futures rose $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session up $3.80, or 4.6%, at $87.25 a barrel. Three more vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said on Wednesday. That brought the number of ships struck in the region to at least 14 since the Iran war began. Shipping along the narrow strait has come to a near standstill since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world's oil supply and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022. President Donald Trump has said the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the U.S. Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high for now. The IEA, meanwhile, recommended the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in its history, to try to rein in energy prices, which are now up more than 25% since the war began. The time frame for the release will be decided in due course, the IEA said. The proposed volume is more than double the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but analysts said it was ultimately insufficient to resolve supply losses from a prolonged war in the Middle East. The proposed release is roughly equal to about four days of global production and 16 days of the volume of crude that transits through the Gulf, Macquarie analysts estimated. "If that doesn't sound like much, it isn't," the analysts said in a note. Oil prices also shrugged off a U.S. government report that showed crude oil stockpiles in the top oil-producing country had grown more than expected last week. U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, which include diesel and jet fuel, dropped more than expected, the report showed. Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery in response to a fire at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, according to a source, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the Iran war. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is seen boosting supplies via the Red Sea, although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed. The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to help it boost exports to avert steep production cuts as its neighbors Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already reduced output. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and oil products supply to the market by some 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude prices to $150 per barrel. "Even a quick resolution probably implies weeks of disruption for energy markets yet," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Oil Prices Jump After Tanker Attacks In Iraqi Waters Amid Escalating West Asia War -- Global oil markets moved higher after reports of attacks on fuel tankers in Iraqi waters added another layer of uncertainty to energy supplies already strained by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. According to a Reuters report, oil prices climbed after Iraqi officials said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were struck by explosive-laden boats, triggering fires and raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the region. The latest incident comes as West Asia conflict continues to disrupt energy flows and intensify volatility across global oil markets. Benchmark crude prices rose sharply following the reports of tanker attacks. Brent crude futures increased by $5.69, or 6.19 per cent, to $97.67 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $5.11, or 5.86 per cent, to $92.36, in early Asian trading. The gains reflect mounting concerns that the conflict in West Asia could disrupt supply chains in one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. Energy traders are closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf, where key export routes and infrastructure remain vulnerable to escalation. The price surge followed confirmation from Iraqi officials that two vessels transporting Iraqi fuel oil had been targeted. Farhan al‑Fartousi, director general of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, told Reuters that two foreign tankers were hit by unidentified attackers while operating in Iraqi territorial waters. The strikes caused both vessels to catch fire. Initial findings from Iraqi security officials suggested that explosive‑laden boats launched from Iran were responsible for the attacks, though investigations were still ongoing. The incident marks one of the most direct threats to maritime oil shipments in the region since the latest phase of the conflict began. The tanker attacks come amid broader geopolitical tensions triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran, which has already disrupted energy flows across West Asia. The region plays a central role in the global oil system, and any threat to shipping routes quickly reverberates through commodity markets. Analysts say that disruptions to tanker movements and oil production facilities could tighten global supply conditions if the conflict continues. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the latest escalation appeared to be a strong response to efforts by international authorities to stabilise oil prices. "This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA's overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices," Sycamore told Reuters. In an effort to contain the surge in oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release a record volume of crude from global strategic reserves. The agency announced plans to release around 400 million barrels of oil to stabilise markets facing supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. The United States is contributing the largest portion of the release, providing about 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Reuters. The move is intended to increase supply temporarily and prevent oil prices from spiralling further. However, analysts caution that reserve releases may only offer short‑term relief if geopolitical disruptions continue. A major concern for energy markets remains the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil shipments pass through the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets. If tensions escalate further and tanker traffic is restricted, the impact on global oil supply could be significant. Amid the growing tensions, US President Donald Trump said Washington was closely watching developments in the region’s strategic shipping routes. Trump said the United States was in "very good shape" in its war on Iran and indicated that the administration was monitoring the straits closely. At the same time, intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact despite the conflict.

Crude Hits $100 as Tanker Attacks Shut Gulf Oil Terminals (DTN) -- Crude prices continued climbing on Thursday, with NYMEX West Texas Intermediate surpassing the $95 bbl mark and ICE Brent trading above $100, after two oil tankers were attacked, forcing the closure of oil terminals in the Persian Gulf as the Iran war escalates. By 8:45 a.m. EDT, WTI crude futures for April delivery were up by $6.07 to $93.32 bbl after a session high at $ 95.97. Brent crude for May delivery advanced by $6.50, or 7%, to $98.48 bbl after peaking at $101.59. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB futures for April delivery rose $0.1086 to $2.8969 gallon. NYMEX ULSD futures for April soared $0.2580 to $3.9368 gallon. The upside in oil prices was partly muted by the announcement on Wednesday, March 11, by the International Energy Agency that the world's largest oil consumers will release a record 400 million bbl from their emergency reserves to mitigate a worsening global supply crisis. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said an additional 172 million bbl will be released from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reports on Thursday said Iraq has halted all operations at its oil ports after fuel spilled into the sea during attacks on two tankers in its territorial waters that killed a sailor. Footage of the vessels engulfed in flames flashed across news channels and social media platforms as Iran reiterated its warning that ships stay off the Strait of Hormuz where some 21 million bpd of petroleum liquids pass. Oman was also reported to have evacuated all vessels from a key oil export terminal as precaution following a wave of attacks on ships in the region. China, meanwhile, issued a ban on exports of all refined fuel through March to prevent a potential domestic fuel shortage. Taken together, the developments showed disruptions from the near two-week long conflict in the Middle East spilling beyond the region as the U.S. and Israeli forces kept up with their bombardment of Iran and Tehran responded by striking at oil facilities, airports and military bases of its neighboring who were U.S. allies. "Once a conflict extends beyond the initial shock phase, oil markets tend to shift from pricing uncertainty to pricing endurance," research house ANZ said in a note. "At that point, the key question is no longer whether supply is disrupted, but how long producers can physically sustain output under deteriorating operating conditions."

Escalating Iran Attacks and Strait of Hormuz Closure Drive Surge in the Oil Market -  The crude market on Thursday continued to trade higher as Iran increased its attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, increasing concerns of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Explosive-laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member on Wednesday after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters. The market seems to have dismissed the IEA’s release of oil reserves as it may only be a temporary solution, as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and production shut ins in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a longer term supply issue. The market was further supported by a statement by Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei that Iran will continue to fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, adding that Iran’s neighbors should close all U.S. bases on their territory, which Iran would continue to attack. The oil market posted a low of $88.61 on the opening and never looked back as it continued to retrace Monday’s losses. The market retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $119.48 to a low of $76.73 as it rallied to a high of $97.19 by midday. The market later erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session amid the uncertainty over how long the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to shipping. The April WTI contract settled up $8.48 at $95.73 and the May Brent contract settled up $8.48 at $100.46. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22.01 cents at $3.8989 and the RB market settling up $17.63 cents at $2.9646. The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report that the war in the Middle East is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Global supply is expected to drop by 8 million bpd in March due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israel began a campaign of airstrikes on Iran on February 28^th. The IEA said Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million bpd, a volume equal to almost 10% of world demand, as a result of the conflict. It added that without a rapid restart of shipping flows these losses were set to increase.The Trump administration has told U.S. oil companies and shipping groups to prepare for a potential waiver of the century-old Jones Act governing domestic shipping.Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/barrel and $67/barrel, respectively, from $66/barrel and $62/barrel, as it sees longer disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Goldman analysts said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz oil flows at 10% of normal levels, followed by 30 days of gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption. The bank expects Brent to average $98/barrel in March and April before falling to $71/barrel by the fourth quarter of the year. In an upside risk scenario, where flows through the strait are disrupted for a month, Goldman expects the March and April average to jump to $110/barrel before gradually declining to $76/barrel in the fourth quarter.

Brent oil closes at $100 after Iran’s new supreme leader says Strait of Hormuz must remain closed -- Oil prices closed just above $100 per barrel Thursday after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, the latest sign the market may face a prolonged supply disruption. International benchmark Brent crude gained 9.22%, or $8.48, to close at $100.46 per barrel. It was the first time Brent closed above $100 since August 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72%, or $8.48, to settle at $95.73. Mojtaba is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by the U.S. and Israel in the opening strikes of the war. His comments come as attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf continue. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC earlier Thursday that the U.S. Navy is not ready to escort tankers through the Strait yet. U.S. military assets in the region are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities, Wright said. Two oil tankers and a cargo ship were struck off the coasts of Iraq and the United Arab Emirates overnight, authorities said, the latest attacks in or near the strategically crucial Strait. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait, which links the Persian Gulf to global markets. The attacks on shipping came after the International Energy Agency announced its largest emergency release of crude reserves in history. The oil market shrugged off the stockpile release, highlighting traders’ skepticism that the measure can bridge the supply gap triggered by the closure of the Strait. “As we have said repeatedly, the only way to see oil prices trade lower on a sustained basis is by getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz,” strategists at Dutch bank ING said in a research note published Thursday. “Failing to do so means that the market highs are still ahead of us.” The IEA member countries agreed Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. The U.S. announced that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of that effort. The record IEA stock release will add needed volumes to the market, but it will only close up to a quarter of the supply gap tiggered by the closure of the Strait, said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is, suggesting the IEA does not believe the war is [likely] to end soon, and stock draws now will need to be replaced later, portending higher prices even after the war ends,” Kavonic told CNBC. One key reason markets remain uneasy is uncertainty about how quickly the barrels will reach the market, said industry veterans. While the IEA’s announcement marked an unprecedented intervention, the agency did not provide details on how fast individual countries will release their reserves or how the oil will be distributed. It will take 120 days for the U.S. to complete the release of its barrels, Energy Secretary Wright said. Strategic stockpiles are held separately by each IEA member country, meaning technical and logistical constraints could slow the flow of barrels. It could take 60 to 90 days before the oil meaningfully reaches the market which is not the immediate relief that traders wanted, said Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James. “Four hundred million is a big number,” Molchanov said. “But this is the largest oil supply disruption since at least the 1970s so we need a lot of oil, and we need it quickly,” he said.

Oil Prices Dip as U.S. Opens Brief Window for Stranded Russian Crude |- Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Friday morning after the United States issued a temporary license allowing countries to purchase Russian crude and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. The move, which promises to provide some temporary relief to global oil markets, helped push Brent crude down 0.38% to $100.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 0.58% to $95.17 per barrel. The 30-day waiver, permitting the purchase of Russian oil cargoes already loaded on tankers but left stranded by sanctions and market disruptions, is designed to ease the supply shock caused by tankers being unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, emphasized that the waiver only applies to shipments already at sea and "will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government". The announcement comes as the United States and its allies attempt to counter the largest oil supply shock in decades caused by escalating hostilities across the Middle East. The U.S. Energy Department said earlier this week it would release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb soaring fuel prices following the outbreak of war involving Iran. That effort was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves worldwide to help stabilize markets. The relief provided by stockpile releases was short-lived, however, thanks to growing concerns of prolonged supply disruptions as Iran continued to attack vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Brent closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, and plenty of upside pressure remains. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to continue the fight. He used his first public message as supreme leader to say Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the United States and Israel. While Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE is using its pipeline capacity to help bypass the Strait of Hormuz, there is no long-term solution to replace the barrels that Iran has so far managed to keep off the market. Unless the Strait reopens, and soon, expect prices to continue to climb.

Oil prices stay high despite US temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea — Oil prices traded near their highest level since 2022 Friday, shrugging off the Trump administration’s earlier decision to temporarily allow the delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude – a waiver aimed at mitigating a surge in prices following its attacks on Iran. The license, posted to the US Treasury website, applies only to Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12 and authorizes those shipments through April 11. “To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on social media. “This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.” Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.3% to just over $99 a barrel. On Thursday, it settled at $100.46 – the highest settlement level since 2022, when oil prices spiked following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. WTI, the US benchmark, dropped 2% Friday to trade at $93.70 a barrel. Crude oil prices have surged since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is flanked by Iran and is ordinarily the conduit for one-fifth of the world’s oil output. Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, an investment bank, noted that Russia produces around 10 million barrels of oil per day, while the blockage of the strait reduces oil flow by 13-14 million barrels, “without accounting for the closure of oil and gas facilities in the region.” “However, Russia was already exporting to Asian countries,” he wrote in a note, concluding that “it is not obvious” to what extent the easing of US sanctions will improve global oil supply. The US decision to temporarily lift sanctions on oil from Russia, a major exporter, comes despite previous pressure on Russian oil companies as part of a bid to stem the flow of cash funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Global oil supply continues to be under threat. Iran has warned it will set the Middle East’s oil and natural gas “on fire” in retaliation for any attacks on its own energy infrastructure. According to CNN’s reporting, US national security officials significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting risk of a global energy crisis. Now the United States is rushing to contain the economic fallout. At least 16 oil tankers, cargo ships and other vessels have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman in the past two weeks, according to the UKMTO, which monitors maritime traffic. Iran has reportedly been laying mines in the strait, and the US military said it had sunk 16 minelayers in the area earlier this week. Nonetheless, in an interview with Fox News, US President Donald Trump suggested oil tanker crews in the Strait of Hormuz should simply “show some guts” and insisted “there’s nothing to be afraid of.” Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and ranking member on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations criticized the latest US decision on Russian oil on social media. “As Putin helps Iran target Americans in the Middle East, @POTUS is now filling the Kremlin’s war coffers. Instead of squeezing Russia’s faltering economy, the President’s ill-planned war is giving Putin a windfall while American families face higher prices,” Shaheen wrote. CNN previously reported that the United States had granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea. Bessent, at the time, said the move was “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market.” As the historic disruption to energy supply persists, countries have scrambled to stem the economic impact by curbing consumption, capping fuel prices and tapping into emergency oil reserves. Analysts, economists and traders have warned that even a rapid end to the war won’t necessarily mean a quick re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Goldman Sachs revised its price forecast 20% higher for Brent crude oil this year, expecting $100 a barrel in March and $85 a barrel in April, assuming a three-week disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. However, if the closure extends to two months, that will push its end-of-year forecast from $71 a barrel to $93 a barrel.

Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure -Crude futures climbed higher on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, but analysts were wary the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started. Brent futures for May settled at $103.14 a barrel, up $2.68, or 2.67 per cent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April finished at $98.71 a barrel, up $2.98, or 3.11 per cent. Prices were down early on Friday on an erroneous report that an Indian-flagged tanker had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since the war began. Once it became clear the tanker sailed from Oman and had not passed through the strait prices began rising, turning positive before midday. Brent rose 11.27 per cent from its finish on March 6 while WTI gained 8 per cent from its value a week ago. As part of efforts to lower fuel prices to consumers in an election year, the U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. This will affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day's worth of global output, according to Russia's presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev. "Russian oil was already going to buyers; this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction," . "The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply." The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices. That plan was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the U.S. contribution. Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, however, was shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country's oil ports have completely stopped operations. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices, driven higher by the war with Iran. But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said. Both benchmark prices surged more than 9 per cent on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022. Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 a barrel ‌in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the U.S. is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG. In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical waterway.

Oil Up for 4th Week, Brent above $100 on Hormuz Crisis -- Crude prices reversed early losses to settle up for a fourth straight week Friday with Brent returning to above $100 a barrel (bbl) as traders remained focused on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House, meanwhile, raced for solutions to the crisis revolving around the world's busiest shipping lane for petroleum. U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he was considering suspending the Jones Act to allow non-American tankers to transport energy and agricultural products between local ports amid a squeeze in vessel availability caused by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. The effective blockade of Hormuz by Iran sent maritime charter rates soaring and idled hundreds of vessels -- including U.S. registered ones -- that has left huge gaps in the global energy supply chain. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday the temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products for a period of 30 days to ease the energy shortage for global buyers impacted by the war. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev said the move would free up for buyers an estimated 100 million bbl of Russian oil -- roughly a day's worth of global supply -- now trapped at sea by sanctions. Trump also called on oil tanker operators Friday to display more courage in carrying on with business on the strait, which in normal times provides passage to some 21 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum liquids. The U.S. navy reiterated its pledge to shield vessels on the waterway. However, the measures, calls and assurances failed to reassure shippers after repeated attacks by Iran on the waterway in recent days that have caused fires on vessels, fuel spills in the sea and closure of several Persian Gulf ports and facilities that load oil. While Iran itself said it had allowed an Indian tanker on Friday to pass the strait, concerns remained. "The world's oil and gas markets are on a knife's edge, waiting on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz -- once again a centerpiece in Iran's high-stakes game of energy brinksmanship," Phil Flynn, energy analyst for Chicago's Price Futures Group. On Thursday, Turkey intercepted another Iranian missile as its Port of Sohar, a major hub for petrochemicals and liquid logistics in the Middle East. "Iran knows it cannot defeat the U.S. symmetrically; instead, their goal is to trigger a global recession by weaponizing the oil supply chain," said Phil Davis, founder of PSW Investments in Boynton Beach, Florida. U.S. fatalities from the conflict have risen to 11, according to media reports. NYMEX WTI crude futures for April delivery closed up $2.98, or 3%, at $98.71 bbl. ICE Brent crude for May delivery settled up $2.68, or 2.7%, at $103.14 bbl. For the week, WTI rose 7% and Brent 10%, extending advances for a fourth straight week. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for April delivery were up $0.0764 to $3.9753 gallon. NYMEX RBOB futures for April climbed by $0.0566 to $3.0212 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, strengthened by 0.376 points to 100.13, adding to the weight on commodity markets. On the data front, the University of Michigan reported that U.S consumer sentiment has fallen to a 2026 low on concerns over the impact of the Iran war. News that U.S. GDP growth had halved to 0.7% during the fourth quarter from 1.4% in the third quarter had little impact energy markets.

Black Rain Falls on Tehran After US-Israeli Strikes Blow Up Oil Infrastructure -    Black smoke filled the skies, and water mixed with oil rained down on the Iranian capital of Tehran on Sunday, following a US-Israeli strike that blew up oil facilities, marking a new escalation of the bombing campaign. The Israeli military said on Saturday that it struck “several fuel storage complexes” around the city, and according to Al Jazeera, a total of four facilities were hit. Iran’s oil distribution company said at least four of its employees were killed in the attacks.Footage from the aftermath of the strikes shows large fireballs and black smoke pouring from the sites that were hit. The lingering black smoke blotted out the sun, confusing Tehran residents who thought it was still night when they woke up.Iranian authorities urged residents to stay inside, warning of the spread of toxic chemicals. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that “significant quantities of toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur and nitrogen oxides” were released into the air by the US-Israeli strikes.Frederik Pleitgen, a CNN reporter in Tehran, posted several videos showing that oil is raining from the sky. “I want to show you something because the rain that’s coming down seems to be saturated or filled with oil, you can see that it’s completely black. Everything on the ground is black as well,” he said in one video. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that by “targeting fuel depots, the aggressors are releasing hazardous materials and toxic substances into the air, poisoning civilians, devastating the environment, and endangering lives on a massive scale.”

Aramco Asks Asian Buyers for Dual Red Sea-Hormuz Oil Supply Plans   - Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco is requesting from Asian buyers to nominate crude loading plans for April for both its key export port in the Gulf and the export alternative on the Red Sea, multiple sources told Reuters on Wednesday.The crisis at the Strait of Hormuz has reverberated through global markets. With the Strait effectively blocked for tanker traffic, Saudi Arabia has diverted part of its crude oil exports from the Ras Tanura export terminal in the Gulf that needs free-flowing traffic through Hormuz to the Yanbu export port on the Red Sea. The loading option at Yanbu applies only to the purchase of Arab Light, Saudi Arabia’s flagship crude grade, according to Reuters’ sources. Saudi Arabia can replace a small portion of the lost export option at the Ras Tanura port with loadings from Yanbu, which bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco uses the East-West pipeline which on paper has the capacity to move about 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude towards the Red Sea. But there’s the question about how much can the terminals at Yanbu load, with some estimates putting this capacity at around 3 million bpd, Vortexa said last week.  Between March 1 and 9, immediately after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut for tanker traffic, loadings at Yanbu averaged 2.2 million bpd, doubled compared to the February average, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. From the Strait of Hormuz, Aramco shipped some 6 million bpd before the blockage. Yanbu on the Red Sea cannot offset all the lost shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. That’s why Saudi Arabia and the other top Gulf oil producers have slashed crude oil production in recent days as storage capacity fills up and the crude doesn’t have a way out of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil production by between 2 million bpd and 2.5 million bpd, anonymous sources familiar with the situation told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Saudis Eye "Large Order" Of Ukrainian Interceptor Drones As Kill-Cost Missile Crisis Deepens -Saudi Arabia is in discussions with a Ukrainian counter-drone firm to acquire low-cost interceptor drones designed to counter inexpensive IRGC kamikaze drones. The cost-exchange ratio remains highly unfavorable for the U.S. and its Gulf partners, who are using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles against $20,000 drones. If the conflict drags on for months, the risk of depleting critical interceptor missile stockpiles will become a major problem, not just in the Gulf area but also on the Ukrainian battlefront. The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing to purchase a "large order" of interceptor drones and electronic warfare equipment from Ukraine. This report is based on sources and has yet to be confirmed. The unfavorable kill-exchange ratio for the Saudis - eliminating a $20,000 IRGC drone with a +$2 million missile - is quickly straining defense budgets and supplies. A cheaper approach is to use Ukrainian interceptors that have been battle-tested in Eastern Europe for several years. Other Gulf countries, including Qatar, are also examining the use of cheap Ukrainian drones. The U.S. has already deployed Ukraine-tested Merops interceptors to U.S. forces in the Gulf region. Last week, a Financial Times report stated that U.S. officials were negotiating a purchase of interceptors to counter IRGC drones. This comes as supplies are dwindling and costs are soaring after nearly 12 days of conflict. "They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of Shaheds cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles. It is too costly," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview last week. Operation Epic Fury has heavily relied on Patriot PAC-3, SM-3 Block IIA, SM-6, and THAAD interceptors, with limited supplies. Lockheed Martin is the top manufacturer of PAC-3 and THAAD missiles, while RTX produces the SM series and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Heads of U.S. defense firms recently met with President Trump at the White House. The CEOs agreed to quadruple bomb production. One Ukrainian defense firm, SkyFall, said its P1-SUN interceptor drone has shot down 1,500 Shahed drones and an additional 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles over the past four months in Eastern Europe. It stated it can produce up to 50,000 interceptor drones per month and export between 5,000 and 10,000 units to the Middle East.

Greek Shipping Billionaire Capitalizing On Tanker Demand Surge, Deploying Five Vessels To Strait Of Hormuz --Greek shipping billionaire George Procopiou quickly moved to capitalize on the surge in tanker demand when war broke out, dispatching at least five vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Chosun Daily. His move was driven by two key calculations: the massive freight rates oil-importing countries would pay to secure transport, and the lucrative fees oil producers offer to store crude at sea when onshore storage fills up.  Greek shipowners control the world’s largest fleet of oil tankers. Most are leased to energy companies to transport crude globally, though in tighter markets the vessels can also function as floating storage.To reduce the risk of Iranian attacks while transiting the strait, Procopiou’s ships reportedly switched off their transponders and deployed armed guards on deck. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, however, the tankers would likely sink quickly if struck by a missile or drone. Crews undertaking the voyages are said to be receiving unusually high pay.The report quotes industry sources that said Procopiou’s companies offered charter rates as high as $440,000 per day — roughly four times pre-war levels.Procopiou controls several shipping firms, including Dynacom Tankers Management, Sea Traders (C Traders) and Dynagas. Dynacom alone operates about 70 vessels. Forbes estimates his net worth at around $4.7 billion. Shipping tycoons such as Procopiou wield significant influence in the global oil trade and maintain political connections in Washington.The report also identified a potential beneficiary in Sinokor Merchant Marine. The company recently bought dozens of crude tankers and sent several to the Gulf before the conflict began. Sources said Sinokor leased some vessels to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for offshore storage, earning freight rates of up to $500,000 per day.

Most Ships Transit Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started Led By Iranian, China-Linked Tankers - Yesterday we pointed out that contrary to conventional wisdom of a full Gulf blockade, more ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz... ... with the caveat that most are turning off their transponders not to attract undue attention, whether by Iran or the US. This morning, Bloomberg confirms that while mainstream Western shipping remains largely suspended through the Strait of Hormuz, recent 24-hour observations reveal a jump in Iran-linked traffic, specifically involving two sanctioned (read China-focused) VLCCs. There were eight commercial transits on Tuesday and four more were identified early Wednesday, most of which have ties to Iran or have Chinese commercial links, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Two sanctioned Iranian VLCCs, were seen exiting the Persian Gulf for Asia early Wednesday. Their drafts suggest both supertankers are fully laden, and since they saw no pushback from Iran, are headed toward China. As much as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude has been shipped through the strait since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Tankertrackers.com, a company that specializes in the use of satellite imagery to track vessels. According to Bloomberg, one Iran-affiliated container-ships entered the Persian Gulf on Tuesday and another on Wednesday. In addition, a bulk carrier also entered the Gulf Wednesday signaling ‘China Owner All Chinese.’ This increase in activity comes amid an escalation in hostilities in the region. The cargo ship Mayuree Naree was hit by an unknown projectile, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Another bulk carrier signaling ‘China Owner&Crew’ u-turned away from the strait following the incident, underscoring the heightened security risks. As we reported previously, widespread electronic warfare tactics, including spoofing and signal jamming, have made real-time monitoring of traffic increasingly difficult. With several vessels opting to deactivate AIS transponders in high-risk areas, data accuracy is expected to lag, leading to an eventual upward revision of historical transit numbers. Still, despite the occasional successful crossing, the bulk of the industry’s tonnage remains stuck on either side of the strait until maritime security is restored. Traffic through the channel was effectively halted following several attacks on merchant ships as Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes. Missile and drone activity continues to pose a critical risk to all vessels in the vicinity.

Iran Chooses Ayatollah Khamenei's Son as New Leader – Iranian media reported on Sunday that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28, has been selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as the new supreme leader of the country.The younger Khamenei is 56 years old and is said to have close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is taking power following the killing of not only his father, but also his wife, mother, and sister, in an Israeli airstrike in one of the opening attacks of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic.After his appointment, the IRGC pledged its “sincere and life-long allegiance” to Khamenei and emphasized that it will “listen to orders and be ready to implement” them. The IRGC added that his election “proved to everyone that the movement of the Islamic system does not stop, and the revolution and the Islamic system do not depend on individuals.”The choosing of Khamenei is seen as a defiant move in the face of US pressure, as President Trump has said he would not be an acceptable replacement for his father. Trump has said he must have a say in who Iran’s next leader is and has demanded the Islamic Republic’s “unconditional surrender,” signs that the war will not end anytime soon.Iranian officials have also maintained that they do not seek a ceasefire and are ready to continue fighting the US. The killing of the senior Khamenei hasn’t stopped the Iranian military response, and there’s been no sign that the government is close to collapsing or that any kind of uprising will start inside the country.

Counting the Dead: Civilian Toll Mounts in Iran and Lebanon - Palestine Chronicle - As of Monday, March 9, Iranian officials say the death toll from the ongoing US-Israeli assault has reached 1,255, with more than 12,000 people wounded, making Iran the deadliest front in the regional war so far. The figure was given by Iranian Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian, who said most of those killed and wounded were civilians. According to Jafarian, those killed include 200 children and 11 healthcare workers, with victims ranging in age from eight months to 88 years old. He said many of those struck were in their homes or at work, underscoring the extent to which civilian areas have borne the brunt of the bombardment. Iranian official and semi-official reporting has also highlighted the scale of physical destruction across the country. Press TV, citing Iran’s Health Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and Red Crescent reporting, said strikes have hit residential districts, schools, hospitals, emergency facilities, markets, and other non-military sites across several cities, especially Tehran. The damage reported by Iranian authorities goes well beyond casualty figures. Jafarian said 29 clinical facilities have been damaged, 10 of them forced to shut down. He added that 52 health centres, 18 emergency service locations, and 15 ambulances have also been damaged or destroyed. Press TV’s March 8 fact sheet, based on Iranian official reporting, said the Red Crescent had documented thousands of strikes on non-military property, including 3,646 residential and non-military units hit and 528 commercial units completely destroyed. The Iranian news network also said 11 hospitals were affected by missile strikes, three hospitals were rendered fully non-operational, and eight emergency medical bases were damaged. Iranian reporting also points to repeated attacks on schools and children’s facilities. Press TV, citing official sources, said schools in Tehran suffered severe damage and listed strikes on educational facilities, including an elementary school in Minab and a kindergarten in Narmak. The same compilation said medical sites hit included Gandhi Hospital, Khatam al-Anbiya Hospital, Motahari Hospital, the Tehran Trauma and Burn Center, and Ameneh Neonatal Care Center. A major new line of destruction emerged after Israeli attacks hit oil infrastructure. Jafarian told Al-Jazeera that the bombardment of oil facilities spread toxic smoke over Tehran and warned of respiratory and environmental risks. The report said strikes hit the Aghdasieh oil warehouse, the Tehran refinery, and the Shahran oil depot, triggering large fires and darkening the capital’s sky. After Iran, Lebanon remains the other major civilian front in the war. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry’s Health Emergency Operations Center, Israeli attacks since March 2 have now killed 486 people and wounded 1,313. Anadolu reported the updated toll on Monday evening, citing the ministry directly. The official Lebanese toll had already risen sharply by Sunday. Reuters, citing Lebanon’s Health Ministry, reported that the dead included at least 83 children and 42 women, underscoring the civilian cost of the widening Israeli assault. The same report said Israeli bombardment has sent smoke columns over Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon as the war entered a second week. It also noted that strikes hit branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan in the southern suburbs, while the Israeli military had expanded evacuation orders across south Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs. While Monday’s latest official death toll stands at 486, the pattern of destruction in Lebanon is also becoming clearer. Reuters reported that Israeli strikes have hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, including Dahiya, and large areas of southern Lebanon, while many families have fled under broad evacuation orders. Lebanese and regional reporting on March 9 also pointed to fresh strikes on Al-Qard Al-Hassan branches in Dahiya and additional casualties in southern Lebanon, as attacks continued to spread between Beirut and the south. Naharnet reported that the Health Ministry recorded casualties from those Monday strikes as well. As of March 9, the latest official counts from Tehran and Beirut indicate a widening regional war with a mounting humanitarian cost.

Iranian Strike on Bahrain Refinery Triggers Force Majeure, Oil Surges above $115 - Palestine Chronicle - The US-Israeli aggression on Iran has expanded into the Gulf energy sector after a strike targeted Bahrain’s refinery complex. According to the Anadolu news agency, Bahraini authorities confirmed that “a fire erupted after an Iranian attack on the Ma’ameer area.” The Ma’ameer industrial zone hosts the Bapco refinery, one of Bahrain’s most important energy facilities. Emergency crews responded quickly to the blaze, and officials said the fire was brought under control. However, the attack had broader implications for the country’s energy sector. Anadolu reported that Bapco Energies declared force majeure after Iranian strikes affected facilities in the country. Officials said the measure was necessary because of the disruption caused by the attack. Force majeure allows companies to suspend contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances such as war or infrastructure damage. The refinery strike illustrates how the expanding conflict is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s most critical oil facilities and shipping routes. Attacks on these installations can quickly reverberate across global markets. At the same time, the conflict has also targeted energy assets inside Iran. According to Anadolu, US officials have expressed concern over Israeli attacks on Iranian fuel depots. Citing American officials, the outlet reported that the US is “concerned over Israeli strikes on Iranian fuel depots”. Analysts say such attacks risk escalating the conflict further while also destabilizing global energy markets.

Iran Warns No Oil Will Leave the Middle East Until U.S. and Israeli Attacks Stop -- Iran has warned that “not a litre” of oil will be exported from the Middle East until the United States and Israel stop bombing it. The warning comes on the heels of statements made by President Trump that the war would be over “very soon”, which toppled oil prices from peaks reached on Monday.“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement today, as reported by Reuters.The threat followed remarks made by President Trump that included threats for the attacks to actually intensify if Iran continued to prevent oil from leaving the Middle East.“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” the U.S. president said on TruthSocial.“Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!” Trump also wrote on his social network, adding that this was a gift from the U.S. to China and all other oil importers that bought Middle Eastern oil.The situation appears to be of the stalemate sort right now, which suggests the recent reversal of the oil rally may end, after traders rushed to sell on Monday, following Trump’s remark about the war ending “very soon”. The selloff pushed Brent crude and WTI below $100. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, prices will likely start climbing again although more slowly, if Trump goes ahead with the sanction-lifting on “some countries”.

Iranian Drone Strike Hits Oman’s Largest Oil Storage Facility -  Iranian drones struck oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah in Oman on Wednesday, marking the latest attack on Gulf energy infrastructure as the regional war expands into a full-scale confrontation over global oil supply.Fuel storage tanks at the port were hit in the strike, according to maritime security firm Ambrey and Omani state media, though no merchant vessels in the area were damaged. OSINT account Visioner shared video footage of the oil storage facilities after the attack:The attack is the newest incident in a widening campaign targeting energy logistics and oil infrastructure across the Middle East during the ongoing 2026 war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Salalah, located on Oman’s southern coast along the Arabian Sea, has become an increasingly important hub for tankers seeking to bypass the increasingly dangerous Strait of Hormuz. The strike raises fresh concerns that Iran is expanding the conflict beyond the Gulf chokepoint and into alternative export routes used by oil producers and shipping companies.The strike follows several similar incidents targeting oil and gas facilities across the region since the conflict began in late February. Earlier this month, drones hit a fuel storage tank at the Port of Duqm in Oman, another strategic energy hub located outside the Strait of Hormuz.Iran-linked strikes have also targeted Saudi Arabia’s massive Ras Tanura oil refinery, briefly forcing operations to halt after drone debris sparked a fire at the facility. Iran also targeted vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency.The Thai-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree was fired upon after “disregarding warnings and insistently attempting to illegally pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” the IRGC said. Another vessel, the Liberian-flagged Express Rome, was also struck by Iranian projectiles after ignoring warnings from Iranian naval forces, according to the statement.Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic showed that both vessels had been operating in the Strait earlier in the day.According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least 13 vessels have been attacked across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman since hostilities began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory response. Three of those incidents occurred on Wednesday alone.Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters warned that Iran “will never allow even a single liter of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the United States, the Zionists, or their partners.”

Iran Warns Gulf Energy Assets Could Burn if Its Oil Facilities Are Targeted -- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Thursday that it could ignite a wider energy crisis across the Middle East if Iran’s own oil and gas infrastructure comes under attack. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said any strike on Iran’s energy facilities or ports would trigger a “crushing and devastating response.” The force warned that, in such a scenario, oil and gas infrastructure across the region linked to the United States and its Western allies would be “set on fire and destroyed.” The warning comes as tensions in the Gulf intensify amid an expanding conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. Iranian forces have targeted international cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones, disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy shipping lanes. Meanwhile, Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani issued a direct warning to US President Donald Trump, accusing him of making a “grave miscalculation” by initiating the war. In a post on X, Larijani said Iran would continue its military actions until the US president regretted the decision. “Starting a war is easy, but it cannot be won with a few tweets,” Larijani wrote. “We will not relent until making you sorry for this grave miscalculation,” adding the hashtag #TrumpMustPay. According to US Central Command, American forces have struck more than 5,500 targets inside Iran since the start of the conflict, including more than 60 vessels. The escalating confrontation is raising fears of a broader regional war that could threaten energy infrastructure across the Gulf and disrupt global oil supplies.

Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 per Barrel as Hormuz Threat Escalates- Oil markets are bracing for an even bigger potential price shock with Iran on Wednesday warning that crude could surge to $200 per barrel if the war involving the U.S. and Israel continues to destabilize the Middle East’s energy corridors.Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, warned the world to “get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel,” arguing that regional security has been destabilized by the ongoing bombing campaign against Iran.  The $200 oil price tag warning follows a major Iranian drone strike on Wednesday on Oman’s largest oil storage facility.  Tehran also warned that no oil shipments will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz until the attacks stop, placing the world’s most critical oil chokepoint at the center of the escalating conflict.  The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally handles roughly 20% of global oil supply and a large share of LNG trade, making any sustained disruption a major threat to global energy markets.  Oil prices have already reacted violently to the growing risk. Brent crude briefly surged to around $120 per barrel earlier this week before retreating toward the $90 range after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the conflict might end soon. Renewed attacks on shipping and infrastructure, however, have quickly revived fears of supply disruptions.Security incidents across the Persian Gulf are continuing to mount. Maritime authorities and ship-tracking firms report a growing number of attacks on commercial vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, with several ships struck in the latest round of incidents.   Tanker movements through the region have already begun slowing as insurers and ship operators reassess the risks of transiting the corridor.Energy analysts say the conflict is increasingly evolving into a direct confrontation over the Middle East’s oil supply network, with strikes now targeting ports, storage terminals, commercial shipping and export routes across the region.

Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz Means It's Exporting More Oil Than Before the War - Iran has been exporting more oil over the past week than it was before the US and Israel launched the war against the Islamic Republic on February 28, The Wall Street Journal has reported.The report cited data from Kpler, a tanker-tracking firm, which found that since February 28, seven tankers have been loaded off the coast of Iran, and at least two have already left the Persian Gulf. Kpler’s data show that over the past six days, tankers have loaded an average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, higher than the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported in February.The report comes as President Trump has been issuing repeated threats against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as his administration is scrambling to deal with the impact his war is having on the global oil market. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained that the strait is only open to ships that have its permission to cross, which includes Chinese vessels, as China is a major buyer of Iranian oil.“The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed until further notice,” Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Jabari, a senior advisor to the commander of the IRGC, said earlier this week. “Passage occurs only with our permission. Allied ships, such as those from Russia, China, and select partner nations, may transit. Enemy-associated vessels are not allowed to pass, and not a single drop of oil or cubic metre of gas will be permitted through this corridor.”On Wednesday, three vessels off the coast of Iran were reportedly struck by projectiles, as the IRGC has warned that any ship attempting to cross the strait without permission will be hit. Photos show that a Thai bulk carrier, the Mayuree Naree, was among the vessels struck.According to the Royal Thai Navy, the Mayuree Naree was hit while transiting the Strait of Hormuz after leaving the Khalifa Port in the UAE. It said at least 20 crew members from the ship had been rescued so far.

In First Statement, Iran's New Leader Says Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed and Attacks on US Bases Will Continue - Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his slain father as the new supreme leader of Iran, issued his first statement on Thursday, where he said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and vowed Iranian attacks on US bases in the region would continue. “Certainly, the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used,” Khamenei said in his message, which was issued as a written statement and read on Iranian TV. He suggested that Iran could open “other fronts” in the war and vowed there would be revenge for Iranians who have been killed, including more than 100 girls and boys who were killed by a US strike on an elementary school in the opening hours of the war. “The retaliation we have in mind is not only related to the martyrdom of the great leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation who is killed by the enemy becomes a separate case in the file of retaliation,” Khamenei said. “Of course, a limited portion of this retaliation has already taken concrete form, but until it is fully realized, this file will remain open above the others. We will be especially sensitive regarding the blood of our children. Therefore, the crime the enemy deliberately committed against the Shajareh-Tayyebeh school in Minab, and certain similar cases, holds a particular place in this process of accountability,” he added. The Iranian leader addressed regional countries, saying that Iran wants good relations with its neighbors but would continue targeting US bases as long as they remain. “From now on, we will again be compelled to continue doing this if necessary, although we still believe in the importance of maintaining friendly relations with those neighboring countries,” he said.

Trump says U.S. ‘obliterated’ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island but didn’t ‘wipe out’ oil infrastructure  -- President Donald Trump said on Friday that he directed the U.S. Central Command to carry out a bombing raid, hitting military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island.  “Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” the president wrote in a Truth Social post.He added that he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island.”Kharg Island is a small strip of land in the northern Persian Gulf. It’s widely considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets.The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran. Analysts have said that the prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.

Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal -- President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to order the destruction of Iran's main oil loading facility on Kharg island to force Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz. Trump said in a social media post that the US military "totally obliterated every MILITARY target" on Kharg but "for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island." Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision," Trump posted. "Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it!" Trump's statement — as other US official statements — fall short of explicitly acknowledging that Iran has effectively enforced a near halt on oil and LNG shipments from the Mideast Gulf through Hormuz since the US-Israel attacks began on 28 February. The Kharg terminal is in fact the only oil loading terminal in the Mideast Gulf from which some tankers continued to sail through Hormuz, most recently on 10 March. About 25pc of globally traded crude volumes and 20pc of LNG supply is unable to leave the Mideast Gulf. Trump in remarks to reporters on Friday evening said again that the US naval escorts for commercial ships transiting Hormuz will begin "very soon". But senior US military officials on Friday declined to provide a timeline for reopening the strait of Hormuz or explain how the Pentagon will accomplish the task. It remains unclear if and how Tehran will respond to Trump's threat. The extent of destruction at Kharg following the US raid cannot be independently verified. Iran's military has targeted some production facilities and oil fields across the Mideast Gulf, but Tehran so far has directed most attacks at ports and ships across the Mideast Gulf. The Trump administration is under pressure to respond to higher oil prices as a result of the war. April Nymex WTI rose by $2.98/bl to $98.71/bl on Friday, its highest level in more than three years.

Iran threatens to attack UAE cities after US strikes on Kharg Island -Iran’s military on Saturday threatened to attack multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that it claims the U.S. used in its attack on Kharg Island, a vital economic outpost.The claim made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters was that the U.S. launched its attack from “ports, docks and hideouts within” UAE cities. They did not specify which cities they would strike.“[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE,” the IRGC said in a statement on Iranian state media, per Al Jazeera.  President Trump on Friday said the U.S. “obliterated” every military target on Kharg Island without destroying the island’s oil infrastructure for “reasons of decency.” He added that the strikes on the island were “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East.”“However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.The attack came one day after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered the strait remain closed. The Strait of Hormuz acts as the waterway for around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gasoline exports. The closure, a result of the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, has led to a surge in gas and oil prices.

Pentagon Moves More Troops, Warships to the Middle East - Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has approved a request from CENTCOM (U.S Central Command) to send additional Marines and warships to the Middle East, according to three U.S officials. CENTCOM, which is responsible for all U.S forces in the Middle East, requested an amphibious ready group and an attached Marine expeditionary unit, which generally consists of several warships and 5,000 Marines.The request comes as Iran escalated its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, including allegedly mining the Strait, which is a key waterway in the global economy. As a result, global trade has been disrupted, oil prices have risen and the situation has presented itself as a major political challenge for President Trump.The Marine detachment, along with the Japan-based USS Tripoli, will be joining Marine forces currently present in the region in supporting the Iran operation, according to the officials. Despite the buildup, Hegseth dismissed Iran’s attacks on the Strait as “pure desperation” and responded to reporters asking about the safety of passing through the Strait that they “don’t need to worry about it” and that it’s “something we are dealing with.”The 5,000 Marines will join 40,000 to 50,000 American soldiers already in the Middle East. Those soldiers are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. So far, at least 14 American soldiers have been killed since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran two weeks ago.On Tuesday, Reuters reported speaking with US officials who said over 150 American troops have been wounded during the war, including several serious injuries.While the role of the Marine expeditionary unit is unclear, the White House has floated drastically escalating the conflict by attempting to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The President has also refused to rule out placing boots on the ground in Iran.

Thirty PMF Fighters Killed by US Airstrikes in Iraq - Nearly 30 members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were killed by what were likely US airstrikes in Iraq on Thursday, Rudaw has reported, as Iraq has become a major battlefield in the US-Israeli war against Iran.Unnamed Iraqi security officials told AFP that one of the strikes targeted a PMF base near the Iraq-Syria border housing Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, a militia that’s part of the PMF and is under US sanctions. The PMF is a coalition of mostly Shia armed groups formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and is a branch of Iraq’s official security forces.The security officials suggested the attack was a double-tap strike. “The base was destroyed, and the rescue teams who arrived at the site were also targeted,” one official said.The PMF said the US was responsible for the strike and said the base hasn’t been used for recent attacks against US assets in Iraq. The US has launched multiple rounds of airstrikes in Iraq since the war started on February 28, and US bases and facilities have been targeted by drone attacks.In its statement on the US strikes, the PMF said that “all fighters killed were carrying out their official duties, and some were stationed near the borders,” and called the PMF an “essential part of Iraq’s security apparatus.” Four PMF fighters were also killed by suspected US airstrikes on Tuesday.  On Wednesday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), another more shadowy coalition of Shia groups that includes some of the militias in the PMF, claimed that its fighters carried out “31 operations using dozens of drones and missiles against the occupation bases in Iraq and the region” over 24 hours. According to the US State Department, Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya is part of the IRI. A drone swarm hit a British military base in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, on Wednesday night, and according to British media, US troops were injured in the attack.

Hezbollah Launches Long-Range Strike on Israeli Communications Facility - Palestine Chronicle - The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah announced Monday evening that it had targeted a strategic Israeli communications facility in central occupied Palestine. Hezbollah said it struck the satellite communications station of the Israeli Communications and Cyber Defense Division in the Valley of Elah with a salvo of precision missiles. According to the group, the site lies about 160 kilometers from the Lebanese border. Hezbollah said the operation was carried out “in response to the criminal Israeli aggression that struck dozens of Lebanese cities and towns, including the southern suburbs of Beirut.” Israeli media reported that two sensitive sites were hit during the attack, prompting a military censorship order due to the security significance of the locations. Reports also indicated that a strategic facility near Beit Shemesh, west of occupied Jerusalem, was struck. According to reporting cited by the Iranian news agency Tasnim, the targeted site was the SES Satellite Station, also known as the Emek HaEla Teleport. The facility is described as one of the major ground stations in Israel’s satellite communications infrastructure. Tasnim said the site receives data from military and intelligence satellites such as Amos and Dror, which are then transmitted through Bezek’s fiber-optic network to Israeli military command and control centers. The agency described the station as the “beating heart” of Israeli ground satellite communications systems. Image analysis of the site reportedly showed numerous satellite receivers used to process satellite transmissions. Tasnim said the attack could trigger “a wide wave of disruptions” in Israeli communications networks. Some intelligence sources cited in the report said the strike followed long-term surveillance and intelligence gathering on the facility. Separate reporting indicated that Hezbollah launched heavy long-range missiles toward central Israel, marking the first such strike during the current escalation. According to Al-Jazeera, missiles struck Beit Shemesh and Lod, south of Tel Aviv. The report said that the missiles traveled approximately 200 kilometers from the Lebanese border. He added that Israeli defenses were unable to detect the missiles or activate sirens until the last moments. Analysts cited by Al-Jazeera also said the use of heavy long-range missiles suggests Hezbollah has decided to escalate the confrontation. According to the report, the group possesses missiles such as Fadi-3, Qader-1, Qader-2, and Nasser-2, which have a range of roughly 190 kilometers and carry warheads weighing around 500 kilograms. Israel’s Channel 15 also reported that security officials believe Hezbollah used a precise long-range surface-to-surface missile in the latest attack.

Israeli Strikes Kill 394 in Lebanon in One Week, Including 83 Children -  As Israeli attacks continue to escalate, the death toll of their current war on Lebanon has been soaring, with the Lebanese Health Ministry reporting today that 394 people have been killed since Monday, including at least 83 children.Among the latest strikes was an incident in central Beirut overnight Sunday, in which Israeli warplanes attacked a hotel housing a large number of displaced civilians fleeing the war. That and other overnight strikes left at least 15 people dead and 15 wounded.The hotel was in the normally touristy part of Beirut around Raouche, and because of the extra space it was a place a lot of people were fleeing to. The strike killed at least four people and wounded 10 others. It’s the second attack on a Beirut hotel this week, with the previous attack targeting the Comfort Hotel in the Christian majority suburbs of the city, killing 11.One of the deadliest strikes was in the southern village of Sir al-Gharbiyeh, an area just north of the Litani River. Since Israel has ordered everyone out of the area south of the river, the mayor of the village reported hundreds of families have fled there. The strike killed one such family, leveling a small house they were staying in and killing all within.Israeli officials reiterated the order for everyone to withdraw from the area south of the Litani River, though clearly this strike and others underscore that Israel doesn’t view the river as any functional boundary and are just as comfortable attacking civilians who have fled, as instructed, to the other side of the river. Israeli troops suffered their first fatalities inside Lebanon Sunday as well, with troops crossing onto the Lebanese side of the border near the kibbutz of Manara. The armored personnel carrier got stuck after crossing the border, and the IDF sent military bulldozers to dig it out. Hezbollah hit one of the bulldozers with a rocket, starting a fire that left two Israeli soldiers dead and one wounded.

US-Israeli Strikes in Iran Damage More Than 20,000 'Civilian Units': Iranian Red Crescent - --  The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCR) said on Thursday that US-Israeli strikes have damaged more than 20,000 “civilian units” since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28. The group, whose rescue workers are responding to strikes across the country, said that the figure includes 17,353 residential units, 4,122 commercial units, and educational facilities.The bombing campaign has inflicted a large number of civilian casualties, as the Human Rights Activists News Agency, or HRANA, a US-based NGO that’s very critical of the Iranian government, said on Thursday night that it has confirmed the killing of 1,286 civilians, including 200 children. The group also said that it has confirmed 199 military deaths and that another 373 have yet to be classified as civilian or military.Over the previous 24 hours, HRANA said 10 civilians, including three women, were killed, and another 91 were injured. In that time, it recorded attacks on several civilian targets, including a tourist camp, a government building, a residential unit, a residential neighborhood, and a hospital. HRANA also recorded attacks on several military sites, including bases, warehouses, and production sites.The Financial Times reported that the heavy strikes on civilian targets have caused Iranians who initially supported the idea of regime change to rethink their position. “We weren’t supposed to be bombed,” said a Tehran resident who experienced strikes near her apartment. “Our city, our country, this wasn’t supposed to happen. How is it that Venezuela … saw clean, bloodless regime change, but not here?”The single worst incident of civilian harm was the bombing of an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, in the opening hours of the US-Israeli attacks. About 175 people were killed, the vast majority being schoolgirls and schoolboys. A preliminary Pentagon investigation has found that the US was responsible for the strike.

‘Of Course’: IDF Drops Case Against Soldiers Accused of Raping Palestinian Prisoner - Antiwar.  -The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday dismissed the indictments of five soldiers accused of raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sde Teiman prison in July 2024 – an attack that sparked worldwide outrage.The IDF spokesperson’s office said the decision to drop the indictments of five reserve members of Force 100 – a special unit of the military police responsible for guarding and controlling high-risk detainees – “was made following an examination of all the considerations, evidence, and relevant circumstances.”“Among the factors taken into account were the complexity of the evidentiary basis in the case and the implications of the release of the security detainee to the Gaza Strip, which created significant consequences for the evidentiary aspect of the case,” the office added. “These developments created exceptional circumstances that affect the ability to continue the criminal proceedings while preserving the right of the defendants to a fair trial.”The dismissal of the indictments, according to The Jerusalem Post, does not mean the soldiers have been exonerated.The five soldiers were caught on video assaulting a Palestinian prisoner at Sde Teiman on July 5, 2024. Although they used riot shields in a bid to conceal the nearly 15-minute attack, medical reports cited in the case show the victim suffered serious rectal injuries requiring surgery, a ruptured bowel, punctured lung, and fractured ribs. An Israeli medical staffer said that the victim arrived at the hospital in critical condition.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza – welcomed the dismissal of the indictments, which he said had “damaged Israel’s reputation in the world in an unprecedented manner.”Israeli President Israel Katz raised eyebrows by asserting that “the role of the IDF’s legal system is to protect and safeguard IDF soldiers who engage heroically in war against cruel monsters, and not the rights of the terrorists of Hamas.”