US oil price hits six-month high after biggest inventory draw in 5 months; distillates demand at a 4 year high

US oil prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks as a breakdown of talks between Russia and Ukraine, a US troop buildup around the Persian Gulf, and Trump’s saber rattling against Iran increased the geopolitical risk premium on the Mideast's main commodity….after falling 1.0% to $62.71 a barrel last week after the API and EIA both reported the largest US crude inventory increases in more than a year, and after the International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand forecast for this year, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery edged higher across global markets on the US holiday Monday, as traders weighed the market implications of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions against a backdrop of expected OPEC+ supply increases, but fell on Asian markets on Tuesday amid expectations of supply disruptions due to Iran’s naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of planned talks between the United States and Iran, but trended higher early Tuesday morning in the US session, supported by the news that Iran was partially shutting the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours due to security precautions while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills, before turning south after Iran's foreign minister signaled substantive progress in talks with the United States and settlling 56 cents lower at $62.33 a barrel on hopes that tensions between the United States and Iran were easing after Iran's foreign minister said the countries had reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" of their nuclear talks…oil prices rose on global markets early Wednesday as markets struggled with geopolitical balances as a result of sustained fluctuation between supply and demand outlooks, then surged nearly 3% after peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended abruptly after only two hours, and extended that surge to 4% after J.D.Vance said Iran ignored the key U.S. demands, and that military strikes were on the table, and settled $2.86 higher at $65.19 a barrel, as traders priced in potential supply disruptions amid concerns of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and after talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended without a breakthrough….oil prices continued to rise in Asia on Thursday, driven by growing concerns about potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as both countries stepped up military activity in the oil-producing Middle East, and surged 1.8% to a six month high in European trading as the U.S.-Iran talks appear to make no headway, while the U.S. continued to amass military forces near the Persian Gulf, and settled the US session $1.24 higher at a six-month high of $66.43 a barrel as traders worried about escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which had both stepped up military activity in the oil-producing region…oil prices hovered near a six-month high in Asian trading on Friday amid escalating tension between OPEC member Iran and the US, raising the prospect of conflict between the two that could disrupt the supply flow to global markets, but edged lower during the US session, after President Trump said he was considering a limited military strike to pressure Iran over its nuclear program, and settled 4 cents lower at $66.39 a barrel as the market awaited developments in the struggle between Iran and the U.S., but still ended 5.9% higher for the week…

Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for a third straight week, on a warmer forecast and the third straight lower than expected inventory withdrawal… after falling 5.2% to $3.243 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for above normal temperatures for most of the country for the rest of February, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for March delivery opened 16.1 cents lower on Monday morning, as forecasts shifted warmer and traders eyed the end of the winter season, and continued to trend lower throughout the session to settle 21.2 cents lower at $3.031 per mmBTU, on forecasts for a stretch of unusually warm weather ahead for much of the eastern and central U.S., which would likely hold national heating demand to “very light”, despite the Westen US hanging onto colder conditions…that front month contract price started Wednesday 2.8 cents lower and trended lower early on bearish forecasts, but rebounded on bargain buying below $3 to settle 2.0 cents lower at $3.011 per mmBTU, as traders looked past a brief burst of cold toward spring demand erosion and rising storage…prices opened 6.5 cents higher on Thursday and trading around $3.070 leading up to the weekly storage report, but tumbled below $3 on a gas withdrawal that was below the market's estimate and settled 1.5 cents lower at $2.996 per mmBTU after the storage data from the US EIA pointed to looser market fundamentals…natural gas futures struggled to hold a $3 handle in early Friday trading, as markets digested a third straight bearish storage miss and forecasts showed limited bursts of cold ahead, but jumped late in the session to settle 5.1 cents higher at $3.047 per mmBTU, as colder U.S. weather model revisions sparked buying, but still finished 6.0% lower for the week..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending February 13th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 144 billion cubic feet to 2,070 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 59 billion cubic feet, or 2.8% below the 2,129 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on February 13th of last year, and 123 billion cubic feet, or 5.6% below the five-year average of 2,193 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 13th of February over the most recent five years….the 144 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 150 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, and was quite a bit less than the 192 billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 151 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early February week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 13th indicated that after a decrease in our imports, a sizable increase in our oil exports, and a big jump in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the 20th time in thirty-eight weeks, and for the 37th time in eighty-three weeks….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 281,000 barrels per day to 6,524,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 604,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 851,000 barrels per day to average 4,590,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,934,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending February 13th, an average of 1,132,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 202,000 barrels per day lower at 550,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 22,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 13,735,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,219,000 barrels per day during the February 13th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,077,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 13th, an average of 77,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 1,255,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending February 13th averaged a rounded 1,396,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -1,396,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…moreover, since 312,000 barrels per day of demand for oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 1,084,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore useless.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 1,255,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 1,219,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 33,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, resuming what's been a nearly continuous string of​ weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,293,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1.3% less than the 6,373,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be a rounded 22,000 barrels per day higher at 13,735,000 barrels per day even though the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 2,000 barrels per day lower at 13,282,000 barrels per day, because Alaska’s oil production was 24,000 barrels per day higher at 453,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.6% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 91.0% of their capacity while processing those 16,077,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 13th, up from 89.4% the prior week, with the increased utilization rate likely reflecting a recovery from the impact of ​the near zero temperature​ outbreak on refinery operations….the 16,077,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was 4.3% more than the 15,416,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the cold-impacted week ending February 14th of 2025, but 0.8% less than the 16,210,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending February 7th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.4%, which was on the low side of the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 290,000 barrels per day to 9,438,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 13th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 139,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 2.7% more than the 9,190,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending February 14th of last year, but 0.9% less than the gasoline production of 9,525,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending February 14th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 4,887,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 45,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production increases, our distillates output was 3.5% more than the 4,723,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending February 14th of 2025, and 0.7% more than the 4,852,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending February 14th, 2020....

Even after this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the first time in fourteen weeks, decreasing by 3,213,000 barrels to 255,845,000 barrels during the week ending February 13th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,160,000 barrels to a 71 month high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 449,000 barrels per day to 8,749,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of gasoline fell by 12,000 barrels per day to 353,000 barrels per day, and while our exports of gasoline fell by 124,000 barrels per day to 854,000 barrels per day … In spite of thirty-two gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-four weeks, the recent string of additions meant our gasoline supplies were 4.4% higher than last February 14th’s gasoline inventories of 248,053,000 barrels, and about 3% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

Even after this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillate fell for the fourth time in fourteen weeks, decreasing by 4,566,000 barrels to 120,099,000 barrels during the week ending February 13th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,703,000 barrels to during the prior week… Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 303,000 barrels to a 4 year high of 4,753,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 37,000 barrels per day to 985,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 48,000 barrels per day to 199,000 barrels per day, ... With 19 additions to distillates inventories over the past 32 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.0% higher than the 116,564,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on February 14th of 2025, but about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the increase in our oil exports and the decrease in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 23rd time over the past year, and by the most since September 2025, decreasing by 9,014,000 barrels over the week, from 420,299,000 barrels on February 13th to 428,829,000 barrels on February 6th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 8,530,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 5% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 31% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of February over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this February 13th were 2.9% less than the 432,493,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on February 14th of 2025, and were 5.2% less than the 442,964,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on February 16th of 2024, and 10.9% less than the 471,394,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on February 10th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was unchanged over the week ending February 20th, as the number of rigs targeting natural gas was​ unchanged​, the count of rigs targeting oil was unchanged, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 20th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 13th) and this week’s (February 20th) count, the third column shows last week’s February 13th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 21st of February, 2025…

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Trump Announces Largest-Ever U.S. Gas-Fired Plant Coming to Ohio -- Marcellus Drilling News - President Donald Trump unveiled the first projects under a $550 billion trade deal with Japan yesterday, including a $36 billion investment in U.S. energy and minerals. In exchange for a 15% reduction in tariffs on imports, Tokyo will fund initiatives in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia to revitalize the industrial base. The centerpiece is a record-breaking $33 billion natural gas power plant in Portsmouth (Scioto County), Ohio, operated by SoftBank’s SB Energy. This 9.2-gigawatt facility—the largest in U.S. history—is designed to create thousands of jobs and support the surging energy needs of data centers and artificial intelligence applications. It will produce enough electricity to power every single home in Ohio! It’s massive.

The Trump Administration says Japan will provide funds for a $33 billion natural gas plant in southeast Ohio — Southeast Ohio is set to receive an investment from Japan for a projected $33 billion natural gas plant, according to an announcement by the Trump administration Tuesday evening. The project is one of the first under a $550 billion investment commitment made by Japan as part of a trade deal last year. A crude oil export facility off the coast of Texas and a synthetic diamond manufacturing plant in Georgia were also announced as part of the investment deal. It’s not yet clear how much of the projects Japan will fund or how much the country will earn from them. SB Energy, a subsidiary of Japanese tech investor SoftBank Group, will operate the natural gas facility. It will produce up to 9.2 gigawatts of power. The Trump administration claims it will be the largest natural gas facility in the world. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said one gigawatt of power could provide energy for about 800,000 homes.“This project, it should be powering about 7.4 million homes in that regional context … it’s equivalent to supplying electricity for the population of several states,” he said. A fact sheet from the U.S. Department of Commerce describes the project location as “in the vicinity of Portsmouth, Ohio.” WOUB could not confirm the exact location and did not hear back from the Commerce Department in time for this publication. The U.S. Department of Energy owns thousands of acres near Piketon at the site of the retired Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant. It’s also where Centrus Energy has been operating its American Centrifuge Plant since 2023, enriching uranium for the next generation of nuclear power plants.A data center may also soon come to the site, and a Silicon Valley company plans to build two nuclear power plants there. Facebook parent Meta announced last month its plans for a multibillion dollar investment in these nuclear plants.Pike County Commissioner Tony Montgomery said he believes the project will be located in Pike County, but could not say for sure whether the site would be on the federally owned land of the Portsmouth plant or on adjacent privately owned property.Montgomery is hopeful the project will provide long-term local jobs for the community, which has not seen a major employer since the uranium enrichment plant began the decommissioning process two decades ago.“Those have always been the best jobs in the area, working at the plant,” he said. “Anything that can help replace those jobs is a bonus.”Flynn said he believes the project will be a significant source of energy as AI infrastructure like data centers continue to place unprecedented pressure on the nation’s power system. “The demand for electricity is going to grow by maybe 50% over the next 10 years,” he said. He added that he believes the project will incentivize more development in Ohio and bring more jobs to the area, because businesses and data centers want to locate where cheap energy is accessible. “If you have this … center being able to power eight million homes, hey, you know, how many data centers can you power as well?” he asked. “The longer you have to move electricity the more expensive it is, you have to put in pipelines. But if you’re closer to the action, it costs a lot less.” Reuters reported in January that a large-scale infrastructure project involving SoftBank in data center construction was among other short-listed projects considered under the trade deal.Montgomery said he welcomes the possibility of new business developments or data centers in the area, especially if the natural gas facility can prevent strain on local resources.“Hopefully it’s one of those situations where this can provide enough power that when those industries come this way that it’s not going to be a burden on the local citizens,” he said.

SB Energy Tapped for Proposed 9.2‑GW Ohio Gas Power Plant in First Tranche of $550B U.S.–Japan Deal: What We Know. - The Trump administration is touting a proposed 9.2‑GW natural gas power complex near Portsmouth, Ohio, as the centerpiece of a new U.S.–Japan trade deal that officials say could steer up to $550 billion of Japanese capital into American energy and industrial projects.According to a Feb. 17 Commerce Department fact sheet and a statement by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the “Portsmouth Powered Land Project” would be a 9.2‑GW, $33 billion natural gas plant in the vicinity of Portsmouth, operated by Japanese conglomerate SoftBank’s U.S. affiliate, SB Energy. Billed as one of the “largest natural gas generation projects in the world,” the facility “represents a strategic initiative to create an integrated platform capable of supplying reliable, large‑scale, dispatchable energy,” the Commerce Department said. But beyond those claims, neither the government nor the developer has released other basic details such as plant configuration, permitting path, interconnection plan, financing structure, or target in‑service date. Some politicians have suggested more details may be forthcoming in President Trump’s State of the Union speech on Feb. 24. The Ohio mega‑project is one of three deals in a first $36 billion tranche the Trump administration credits to a U.S.–Japan “strategic investment” framework first announced in July 2025 and formally implemented by executive order that September, under which the White House said Tokyo has pledged up to $550 billion for U.S. projects in return for a 15% tariff cap on most Japanese imports. In that EO, the White House noted the “investments” will be selected by the U.S. government. The second project that will benefit under the $36 billion “commitment” is a $2.1 billion deepwater crude export terminal off Brazoria County, Texas. That project, tied to the Texas GulfLink project, is expected to generate “$20–30 billion in U.S. crude exports annually” and “expand American energy dominance,” Commerce said. The third project is an approximately $600 million high‑pressure synthetic diamond grit facility in Georgia operated by Element Six, which Commerce calls “critical” to U.S. industrial manufacturing and national security because diamond grit is “vital” to the semiconductor, automotive, and oil and gas industries.SB Energy is a fully integrated U.S. digital‑infrastructure and energy platform founded in 2019 and owned by SoftBank, which describes it as a group company and AI‑infrastructure developer. SoftBank, a Japan‑based technology and investment conglomerate best known for its multitrillion‑yen Vision Funds and major stakes in AI and semiconductor companies, now treats SB Energy as one of its core “AI infrastructure” holdings.SB Energy says it has raised more than $10 billion in project capital and built a 5‑GW‑plus portfolio of utility‑scale solar, storage, and powered‑land projects that are operating or under construction in Texas and California, including the 900‑MW Orion Solar Belt complex serving Google’s Midlothian data center in Milam County, Texas; the 402‑MW Athos battery storage project in Riverside County, California; and the Pelican’s Jaw solar‑plus‑storage project in Kern County, California. In January 2026, notably, SoftBank and AI research and deployment company OpenAI each invested $500 million of equity into SB Energy and signed a 1.2‑GW data‑center lease in Milam County, Texas, as part of OpenAI’s Stargate initiative, a White House–backed plan to build “next‑generation AI data centers” in the U.S. The deal makes SB Energy OpenAI’s preferred development and execution partner for multi‑gigawatt AI data‑center campuses and their associated generation. It also brings SB Energy into a non‑exclusive “preferred partnership” with SoftBank and OpenAI to roll out a repeatable data‑center design model and builds on an earlier $800 million redeemable‑preferred investment from Ares and SB Energy’s acquisition of Studio 151, a data‑center engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) and operations firm, which has experience on roughly 20 campuses.

Word game in Ohio bill can't make nuclear or gas 'clean - Melinda Zemper, Save Ohio Parks - Cre­at­ing a law declar­ing something is true doesn’t mean that it is.Take what law­makers are try­ing to do with the word “clean” at the State­house.Save Ohio Parks is among the envir­on­mental organ­iz­a­tions opposed to Sen­ate Bill 294. The bill addresses energy project sit­ing decisions, but it con­tains a major flaw. It declares nuc­lear power and nat­ural gas to be “clean” ener­gies.They are not. While nuc­lear power may be emis­sions-free, the prob­lem is the same today as it was in 1951: man­aging and stor­ing its dan­ger­ous, radio­act­ive nuc­lear waste. Nuc­lear acci­dents are rare, but when they occur, res­ults are dev­ast­at­ing and unfor­giv­ing. Chernobyl, in Ukraine, has a 1,000-square-mile exclu­sion zone still in effect. It is unin­hab­it­able today because of radi­ation pois­on­ing from the plant explo­sion in 1986.Caused by an earth­quake and a tsunami in 2011, the Fukushima dis­aster man­dated dis­place­ment of 164,000 people, 41,000 who remain evacu­ees today. The costs of both acci­dents are in the hun­dreds of bil­lions of dol­lars.Radium is often present in nuc­lear waste and its decay products. Just the half-life of Radium 226, which is bone-seek­ing and cause can­cer in humans, is 1,600 years. In Ports­mouth, we wit­ness the ongo­ing effects poor fed­eral nuc­lear waste man­age­ment has had on people liv­ing near the Ports­mouth Gaseous Dif­fu­sion Plant, which pro­cessed uranium dur­ing the Cold War.Piketon’s radi­ation expos­ure levels from plant oper­a­tions con­tinue to risk the health of res­id­ents. Radi­ation has con­tam­in­ated the sur­round­ing area’s air, soils and water, caus­ing a pre­ma­ture death rate in Pike County for people 74 years and younger to be 107% higher than the U.S. aver­age.That’s 750 early deaths from can­cers and other dis­ease in a county pop­u­lated by 27,088 people. Can­cer clusters and early death rates in the area from radi­ation expos­ure have been repor­ted for years by local and regional media.Nuc­lear energy can­not be called “clean” when human expos­ure to its radio­act­ive waste clearly causes can­cer and early deaths. Nat­ural gas, which we also know as meth­ane gas, or fracked gas, is dirtier and more dan­ger­ous than nuc­lear energy. Meth­ane gas emis­sions, leaks, flares and vent­ing from nat­ural gas pro­duc­tion over the past 30 years have accel­er­ated global warm­ing and cli­mate change like a hockey stick. This is not news. Fifty years ago, Amer­ic­ans were told nat­ural gas was a less-pol­lut­ing altern­at­ive to coal and oil while the trans­ition to renew­able energy occurred. The sci­ence is clear and the world around us is embra­cing renew­able ener­gies like cheap, reli­able wind, solar to mit­ig­ate the worst effects of cli­mate warm­ing and cli­mate change. Why isn’t Ohio? To call nat­ural gas “clean” is not just laugh­able. It’s tra­gic. Nat­ural gas frack­ing is a main driver of our loom­ing envir­on­mental crisis.Law­makers should stop pre­tend­ing. Ohio needs an eth­ical, 21st-cen­tury energy policy that includes wind, solar and other truly clean, emis­sions-free, renew­able energy sources. Any­thing less harms our health; our clean air, water and arable farm­land; biod­iversity in our state parks and pub­lic lands; and our chil­dren and grand­chil­dren’s sur­vival on a liv­able planet.

The expanding energy sector and what landowners need to know -Ohio has been buzzing with energy lately; no pun intended. The energy sector has changed and is growing across the entire state, from wind and solar projects to oil and gas pipelines, transmission lines, and distribution system upgrades. New forms of energy are also entering into the mix, including carbon sequestration projects, injection well infrastructure, and hydrogen production and storage. With so many energy projects emerging, understanding how to navigate these opportunities while also protecting your property is increasingly important. Dale Arnold, the director of energy, utility, and local government policy at the Ohio Farm Bureau Federation, shares his knowledge on how to make energy work for you. “In the Northeast and Northwest parts of Ohio, we are seeing a lot of refits of current transmission infrastructure, many being installed in the 60s and 70s are going through major refits, with new towers, new lines, and expanding the size of right-of-way,” Arnold said. “In Central Ohio, there is a tremendous amount of industrial development, and in Southern Ohio, there is a resurgence of oil and gas production.” As these projects reshape different corners of Ohio, Arnold said, there are a lot of things property owners need to understand. “The first step is to find out basically exactly what they are talking about here. Are we talking about electricity? Are we talking about fuel or liquid type energy? Are we talking about gaseous? Is it going to be a merchant function, which means they’re going to literally produce a form of energy as a commodity and sell it as is? Or is it part of utility infrastructure? If that’s the case, do eminent domain provisions apply,” Arnold said. “That’s the basic structure right there and that’s where the conversation starts.” Arnold and his team can help landowners understand leases, easements, and surface agreements, but he says multi-generational planning is the best place to start. “The next thing is to sit down with your family, all three generations, grandma and grandpa, dad, mom, grandchildren, if they can understand and appreciate the situation, and think long-term,” Arnold said. Arnold notes that the “short-term” window that energy developers look at is a 30-year time span. “It’s interesting because you need to think about that, because you’re talking about a very consistent revenue stream long-term,” Arnold said. “If it’s a lease, you’re talking about a one-time lump payment. If it’s an easement, you also need to take a look at it, and I have families that put together the plan long term, and sometimes that takes longer than negotiating the lease or the easement or the agreement between you and energy development.” Energy projects will continue expanding statewide, and Arnold says landowners should not navigate these agreements on their own. If landowners have questions or need something reviewed, they can contact their local county Farm Bureau office or reach out to ofbf.org.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces Increased Increased Interest in Antero Ohio Acquisition Funded with $350 Million Strategic Equity Investment -Infinity Natural Resources, Inc.today announced that it agreed to increase its interest from 51% to 60% in the transformational $1.2 billion Antero Ohio Utica Shale Acquisition pursuant to an agreement with Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., using a portion of the proceeds of a $350 million strategic equity investment (the "Investment") from leading energy-focused private capital investors Quantum Capital Group ("Quantum") and Carnelian Energy Capital Management ("Carnelian"). The Investment in Series A Convertible Preferred Stock ("Preferred Stock") significantly reduces the Company’s pro forma leverage and increases its liquidity. The Investment positions Infinity to continue to accelerate development of its extensive drilling inventory and pursue additional strategic consolidation opportunities within the Appalachian Basin.The convertible structure, including the 30% premium in the conversion price, aligns the Investment with long-term equity appreciation while enhancing balance sheet flexibility. The remainder of the proceeds from the Investment will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of borrowings under the Company's senior secured revolving credit facility. INR continues to anticipate that the Antero Ohio acquisition will close by the end of the first quarter of 2026."Quantum and Carnelian bring deep energy sector expertise and a proven track record of partnering with management teams to drive operational excellence and strategic growth," said Zack Arnold, President and Chief Executive Officer of Infinity. "Their investment further validates our strategic direction while allowing us to increase our participation in the Antero Ohio acquisition and maintain a conservative capital structure. The transaction furthers our financial flexibility to pursue additional accretive growth opportunities. We are excited to have Matt Kelly from Carnelian join the Board at closing.""Infinity's strong operational execution and successful organic drilling program demonstrate management’s ability to create significant stakeholder value in the Appalachian Basin," said Rob Anderson, Managing Director at Quantum. "We are excited to partner with Infinity as a strategic investor and to support its transformational Antero Ohio acquisition and continued growth trajectory.""The combination of Infinity's operational excellence and the strategic scale provided by the Antero Ohio acquisition positions the company as a leading consolidator in one of North America's premier unconventional basins," said Matt Kelly, Managing Director at Carnelian. "This investment aligns with our focus on partnering with best-in-class management teams executing accretive growth strategies."The terms of the Preferred Stock are as follows, subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the definitive agreements:

• $350 million of Preferred Stock, with Quantum purchasing $275 million and Carnelian purchasing $75 million
• The Preferred Stock carries an 8.00% dividend per annum, paid quarterly, for the first five years, and 12.00% thereafter, with an option to pay in cash or in kind as an increase to the liquidation preference available for the first two years
• The Preferred Stock is convertible at the option of the holders into shares of Infinity’s Class A common stock at a conversion price of $21.39 per share, representing a 30% premium over the five-day volume-weighted average price preceding the signing
• After 3 years, the Company has the right to convert the Preferred Stock into Class A common stock if the closing price of the Class A common stock exceeds 140% of the conversion price for a certain period of time
• After 5 years, the Company has the option to redeem the Preferred Stock at a price that equals an internal rate of return of 15% per annum
• On an as-converted basis, the Preferred Stock represents approximately 20.5% of Infinity's voting power, and the Preferred Stock generally votes on an as-converted basis with the shares of the Company’s common stock
• The holders of the Preferred Stock have certain minority consent rights and anti-dilution protections

Ohio School Launches Oil Field Safety Training Program - A Lorain County, Ohio training provider is expanding its curriculum to address workforce requirements in the regional energy sector. Great Lakes Truck Driving School has developed an oil field safety certification program launching this month. The curriculum includes OSHA compliance training, First Aid certification, and Rigging instruction—competencies identified as critical by drilling contractors in the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions. The school reports that 10 drilling contractors have identified immediate hiring needs totaling more than 4,000 positions. Employers specifically require candidates holding CDL licenses and heavy equipment operation credentials combined with the safety certifications the program provides. The training organization recently secured accreditation from the International Association of Drilling Contractors, allowing it to issue Health, Safety, and Environmental RIG PASS Cards and SafeLandUSA Endorsements upon course completion. The program's training strategy is focused on aligning curriculum development with employer demand in sectors experiencing sustained growth. The oil and gas industry represents a long-term employment pipeline for the state's workforce. The facility offers training for professional driving, heavy equipment operation, and energy sector safety.

Mason Capital Demands to See Ascent Resources’ Books & Records -- Marcellus Drilling News - The bidding war for Ascent Resources continues to bubble. Ascent, formerly American Energy Partners, is a privately held company focused 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The largest shareholder in the privately owned company is the private equity firm Energy & Minerals Group (EMG), with an “over 30% stake.” EMG wants to sell that stake in one of its portfolio companies to another EMG company. That action set off a firestorm with one major investor (the Abu Dhabi Investment Council) suing to block the transfer, and several other investors, including Mason Capital Management, making offers to buy the company lock, stock, and barrel. Mason issued a press release yesterday, “demanding” answers from Ascent, accusing the board of stonewalling

43 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 9 – 15 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received a combined 43 new drilling permits last week, Feb. 9 – 15, up 19 from the permits issued two weeks ago. The most recent high in permits (going back at least a year) occurred during the first week of December, when 60 new permits were issued (see 60 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 1 – 7). A week with 43 permits is also significant, indicating an increase in drilling activity. Pennsylvania issued 25 new permits, Ohio issued 7, and West Virginia issued 11. The drillers receiving new permits last week included: Antero Resources, Arsenal Resources, Ascent Resources, Coterra Energy, HG Energy, Infinity Natural Resources, JKLM Energy, and PennEnergy Resources. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARSENAL RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | JKLM ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RITCHIE COUNTY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA)

Marcellus Drilling News: Capital & Main Resolves Legal Challenge From CNX Resources Over Its Reporting With Editor’s Note Explaining What It Did Not Say Or Write About In An Article - On February 13, Marcellus Drilling News reported the news outlet Capital & Main resolved its legal challenge from CNX Resources over an article about its “Radical Transparency” shale gas monitoring program by adding an editor’s note saying what it did not say or write about in its September 2025 article.The article-- Pennsylvania Gas Driller: Our Operations Pose No Health Risk; You Can’t Be Serious, Activists Say-- described how “CNX Resources Corporation, a major Pennsylvania natural gas producer, has racked up air quality violations by the hundreds and three years ago pleaded no contest to criminal charges of skirting state pollution laws for years by misreporting air emissions at one of its facilities.”“Now, CNX is doing its best to resurrect itself as a white knight in the fossil fuel trade, and as proof offering up an industry-written study it says demonstrates its fracking operations pose “no public health risks.” The study was born from a partnership that CNX inked last year with its old nemesis — Shapiro.”The article reported how “A group of 40 environmental organizations, as well as state Sen. Katie Muth, have submitted a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy in which they express their opposition to the inclusion of CNX’s “Radical Transparency” on the list of projects vying for the federal funds.““The ‘Radical Transparency’ program is a cynical attempt to undermine those harmed by fracking by discrediting the thousands of peer-reviewed papers, government reports and media investigations that have demonstrated grave harms fracking poses to health, safety, the environment and climate,” the lettOn October 31, 2025, Capital & Main reported a lawsuit was filed by CNX Resources Corporation accusing the news organization of defamation for quoting sources critical of an industry-written study. Capital & Main said it stands by its reporting and vows to fight the suit. Read more here.Marcellus Drilling News first reported the settlement between CNX and Capital & Main resolved claims by CNX in the lawsuit by adding an editor’s note to the September article--“Capital & Main did not state, and did not intend to imply, that CNX fabricated any reported data in its Radical Transparency program. Further, Capital & Main did not state, and did not intend to imply, that CNX engaged in manipulation of the stock market or any improper attempts to influence its ratings or stock values. Capital & Main has no facts or basis to believe that any fabrication of data or market manipulation occurred.” Capital & Main’s article did not change.

Toby Rice: Pipeline Permitting Failure is the Expensive Option -- Marcellus Drilling News - Toby Rice is President & CEO of EQT Corporation, the second-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and THE largest producer of Marcellus/Utica gas. He has been a tireless advocate for natural gas, pipelines, and LNG exports. In a recent op-ed, Rice makes the strong case that Winter Storm Fern’s extreme natural gas price spikes exposed the urgent need for permitting reform to ensure energy reliability. We need more pipelines (and natural gas infrastructure of all kinds), and we need it NOW. In regions like the Southeast and New England, inadequate infrastructure during Fern forced prices fifty times the national average or necessitated a shift to dirtier fuels. The failure of permitting reform, which blocked new pipelines to New England, was the expensive option. It’s time to end the renewable fantasy and get back to reality.

Elevated U.S. Propane Inventories Mask Regional Tightness as Venezuela Launches LPG Exports The EIA reported a 3.1 MMbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended February 13, smaller than industry expectations for a 3.4 MMbbl decline and below the average draw of 3.2 MMbbl for the week. Even with the pull, total stocks stand at 74.2 MMbbl — 18.9 MMbbl, or 34%, above the same week in 2025, 10.8 MMbbl, or 17%, above the five-year maximum, and 22.2 MMbbl, or 43%, above the five-year average. Much of the surplus remains concentrated in PADD 3. PADD 1 (East Coast) propane inventories declined by 406 Mbbl to 3.7 MMbbl and now sit just 132 Mbbl, or 4%, above the five-year minimum — a thin cushion for this point in the winter season. Stocks remain 865 Mbbl, or 19%, below the five-year average, although still 92 Mbbl, or 3%, higher than a year ago. Weekly U.S. propane exports increased by 169 Mb/d to 2.04 MMb/d, rising above the four-week average of 1.98 MMb/d, the year-to-date average of 1.95 MMb/d, and the 1.99 MMb/d reported in the year-ago week, signaling stronger export demand week over week. Imports rose by 52 Mb/d to 236 Mb/d, including volumes delivered to Providence, RI aboard the Chrysopigi Lady.

East Coast LNG Export Ambitions Fade Further as Another Project Stalls -The possibility of building a large export terminal in eastern Pennsylvania looks increasingly remote after years of effort to advance the Penn LNG project have failed to gain traction. Bar chart of global LNG capacity under development by period, showing United States, Qatar, Australia, Canada and other projects in Bcm, with 2025-2030 led by U.S. and Qatar additions. At A Glance:
No progress on Penn LNG
Developer dissolves entity
Project said still advancing

Potential Philadelphia LNG Export Facility Appears to be Dead -- Marcellus Drilling News - In early 2024, we reported that Penn America Energy CEO Franc James, the potential builder of the proposed Penn LNG export facility in the Philadelphia area, said that he “pumped the brakes” on the project but that it wasn’t dead yet (see Penn LNG CEO Says Philly Export Project on Hold, “Not Dead Yet”). Antis will be delighted to learn that all of their fussing has had an effect. It appears the project is likely now dead. The developer, Penn America Energy Holdings LLC, has reportedly been dissolved. While some individual entities may still exist, the core organization responsible for advancing the project is no longer active in its original form.

One Train Down at Atlantic LNG for Emergency Repairs - Here are three things to know about the global LNG market this week. Federal regulators have granted Cheniere Energy Inc.’s request to introduce feed gas and refrigerants to the first string of the fifth train’s cold end at its Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 expansion project, bringing the unit one step closer to producing the super-chilled fuel.The company has asked to flow gas to the cold end of string 2 as well — the final step before LNG production.

Lake Charles LNG Could Become NGL or Crude Export Hub as ET Reconsiders Strategy -- Energy Transfer LP (ET) is considering all options for the future of its Lake Charles LNG terminal in Louisiana, including a pivot away from LNG entirely, according to management. At A Glance:

• ET open to new project partners
• Possible shift toward NGL, oil exports
• ET targets data center gas demand

Vessel Traffic Limited at Sabine Pass LNG by Heavy Fog Forecast Through Weekend - Heavy fog continued to stop vessel traffic on the Sabine-Neches waterway Friday and again limited LNG exports.

Golden Pass LNG Activity Normalizes; Permian Lateral Cleared to Proceed - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 3,493 MMBtu: Nominations to the Golden Pass LNG facility have been revised down and returned to average levels after two days of reported spikes in flows, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Flow data indicated significant equipment testing could be underway at the facility after levels jumped to near 15% of capacity Monday and Tuesday. However, those figures have been revised to around 1.5% of capacity at the highest levels. Nominations to the terminal were reported at 3,492 MMBtu Wednesday, near the same levels reported since gas began flowing into the system last summer.
• 1.1 mile: In other development news, Golden Pass LNG has been given the green light to begin construction on a 1.1 mile, 42-inch lateral to connect the terminal to alternative feed gas supply from the Permian Basin. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission previously approved the lateral project last month. Once completed, Golden Pass would be connected to up to 1 Bcf/d of West Texas supply through the 218-mile, 42-inch and 48-inch diameter Trident Intrastate Pipeline system developed by Kinder Morgan Inc.
• 110 Bcf/d: Elevated feed gas demand at Gulf Coast LNG terminals is being offset byswelling natural gas production in the lower-48, according to Wood Mackenzie data. Nominations to export facilities was estimated at 19.3 Bcf/d over the past seven days, according to the firm. Meanwhile, production has ticked up to an average of 110 Bcf/d during the same period. Canadian imports added another 5.3 Bcf/d to U.S. markets.
• 2.47 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are expected to rebound the week of Feb. 16 on an uptick of demand from Asian buyers, according to Kpler data. Anticipated LNG exports from U.S. terminals was estimated at 2.47 million tons (Mt) for the week, up 0.25 Mt from the week prior. The majority of volumes are expected to head to Europe, but the region’s imports could fall by 5-6 cargoes. Meanwhile, Asian buyers — mostly in South Korea — are expected to receive an additional 6-7 cargoes from a week prior.

TC Energy Tops Estimates as LNG Deliveries Jump 21%, Gas Flows Hit Record - TC Energy beat fourth-quarter profit estimates as North American natural gas flows hit record levels and LNG deliveries surged 21%, underscoring growing pipeline demand from export terminals and power markets. (Reuters) — Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy beat analysts' estimates for fourth-quarter adjusted profit on Feb. 13, helped by record natural gas flows across its North American network and increased demand for natural gas and power. Major pipeline operators such as TC Energy are doubling down on expectations of surging natural gas demand as LNG export facilities expand and power-hungry AI systems, cryptocurrency miners and data centers ramp up electricity use. TC Energy operates a 58,100 mile-long network of pipelines, supplying more than 30% of the clean-burning fuel consumed daily across North America. The company placed C$8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, and expects to place nearly C$4 billion of capital into service this year. In January, it closed a non-binding open season for 0.5 billion cubic feet per day on its Columbia Gas Transmission system near Columbus, Ohio, attracting 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of total bids, three times the proposed project capacity, as power demand from data centers surged. The company anticipates full-year capital expenditure to be between C$6.0 billion and C$6.5 billion. Canadian natural gas pipeline deliveries averaged 27.2 billion cubic feet per day during the quarter, up 5% from a year earlier, while U.S. pipeline flows rose 9.5% to 29.6 billion cubic feet per day. Deliveries to LNG facilities jumped 21% to 3.9 billion cubic feet per day. TC Energy's adjusted core profit at U.S. natural gas pipelines, its largest segment, rose to C$1.39 billion ($1.02 billion), from C$1.2 billion a year ago. Adjusted core earnings from Canadian natural gas pipelines rose nearly 13% to C$961 million during the quarter. On an adjusted basis, the Calgary-based company earned 98 Canadian cents per share, compared with analysts' average expectations of 92 Canadian cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. It raised the quarterly dividend by 3.2% to C$0.8775 per share, marking its twenty-sixth straight year of dividend growth.

TC Energy Sets Growth Sights on U.S. Data Center Boom -Pipeline and power company TC Energy Corp. is looking to capitalize on the insatiable electricity demand from U.S. data centers, but it’s focused on tweaking its existing system to meet those needs instead of building from scratch. “Our strategy has been very intentional to capture this growth without increasing our risk exposure,” CEO François Poirier told analysts on a recent conference call. “Our primary focus is on brownfield in-corridor expansions that leverage our existing footprint to primarily serve investment-grade utility customers, particularly in regions where we hold long-standing incumbent positions.” TC’s infrastructure is located near 60 per cent of projected U.S. data center growth, Poirier said. TC has pitched an expansion to its Columbia Gas Transmission system to serve an area of Ohio that’s seeing significant development of data centers — the enormous facilities that house the computing firepower for artificial intelligence and other applications. Such operations require massive amounts of energy to run the machinery and keep them cool. The Calgary-based company offered customers a total of 500,000 MMBtu per day of capacity during an open season that wrapped up last month. It garnered bids representing triple that amount. TC is also looking to expand its Crossroads Pipeline system by up to 1.5 million MMBtu a day, serving markets in northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota, where significant anticipated data center growth is also expected. ANR Pipeline Company, founded in 1945 as the Michigan-Wisconsin Pipe Line Company and now part of TC Energy, operates one of the largest interstate natural gas systems in the U.S., moving gas from Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana to the Midwest and Great Lakes region and connecting to major storage facilities in Michigan. Image: TC Energy For potential power generation investments, TC is more interested in plants that would serve the overall grid instead of linking up exclusively with a data center customer. “We really are focusing in front of the meter with our utility customers,” Poirier said. “To the extent a data center wants to get service directly for gas and is willing to provide a long-term contract that is consistent with what we get from the utility customers, we will, of course, contemplate those. We’re not looking at any power project development and ownership behind the meter at this time.”

TC Energy's Data Centre Play: Old Pipelines, New Profits -The artificial intelligence revolution has created an insatiable appetite for electricity at U.S. data centres—and one Canadian energy giant sees an opportunity. But rather than building new power plants or pipelines from scratch, TC Energy Corp. (TRP) is betting on a different approach: upgrading what it already owns. The Calgary-based pipeline company plans to leverage its vast natural gas network to help fuel America’s rapidly expanding data centres. Speaking on a recent investor call, CEO François Poirier laid out the company’s disciplined growth strategy. “Our strategy is very clear: capture this growth without increasing our risk exposure,” Poirier said. He noted that 60 per cent of projected U.S. data centre growth sits near TC Energy’s existing infrastructure, making “brownfield in-corridor expansions”—essentially building out from current assets—the primary focus, with an emphasis on serving investment-grade utility customers. Concrete projects are already taking shape. TC Energy has proposed expanding its Columbia Gas Transmission system to serve a data centre hotbed in Ohio. During a recently concluded open season, the company offered 500,000 mmbtu per day of capacity—and received bids for three times that amount, underscoring the market’s urgency. Further expansion is planned for the Crossroads Pipeline system, targeting northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and South Dakota, regions poised for significant data centre development. TC Energy aims to add up to 1.5 million mmbtu of daily capacity there. When it comes to power generation investments, the company prefers plants that serve the broader electrical grid rather than “behind-the-meter” facilities tied exclusively to a single data centre customer. Poirier indicated TC Energy would consider direct gas service contracts with data centres if they match the terms and duration of utility agreements, but said the company isn’t pursuing behind-the-meter power project development or ownership at this time. Competitors circle the same prize TC Energy isn’t alone in chasing the data centre opportunity. Fellow Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge Inc. is also positioning itself aggressively. CEO Greg Ebel revealed on his company’s quarterly call that Enbridge is advancing more than 50 potential data centre projects, which could require up to 10 million mmbtu of natural gas daily. Approvals are expected to begin rolling out in 2026 and continue through 2027. Enbridge has also been directing parts of its renewable energy portfolio toward the U.S. data centre market, striking offtake agreements with tech heavyweights including Meta Platforms Inc. The financial case for TC Energy’s approach is becoming clearer. The company forecasts $6 billion in annual net capital expenditures through 2030 and projects North American natural gas demand will grow by 45 million mmbtu per day by 2035. Fourth-quarter results released Friday showed revenue climbing to $4.17 billion, up from $3.58 billion a year earlier. Net income came in at $959 million—a dip from $1.07 billion in the same period last year, but still ahead of analyst expectations.

Enbridge Eyes 50 Data Center Projects as Natural Gas Demand Surges - Canadian midstreamer Enbridge Inc. sees a massive data center opportunity in North America that could require up to 10 Bcf/d of incremental gas capacity. U.S. map of GW-scale data centers expected online in 2026-2027, highlighting major projects by AWS, Microsoft, Meta and others, with clusters in Texas, PJM and the Midwest totaling up to 4,500 MW capacity. At A Glance:
50 projects advance toward sanction
Texas Eastern hits 15 Bcf/d
Gulf Coast storage demand surges

ENBRIDGE INC SEC 10-K Report - Enbridge Inc. achieved several operational milestones and announced key projects aimed at enhancing its infrastructure and expanding its energy portfolio:

• Liquids Pipelines Investment: Plans to invest up to US$1.3 billion in the Mainline System through 2028, focusing on extending the service life and enhancing reliability and efficiency.
• Noncontrolling Interest Investment: On July 2, 2025, Stonlasec8 Indigenous Investments Limited Partnership invested approximately $736 million in the BC natural gas pipeline system, with Enbridge retaining an 87.53% ownership.
• Gas Transmission Rate Proceedings: Several rate cases were filed and settled, including Algonquin, Maritimes & Northeast, East Tennessee, and Vector, with new rates becoming effective in late 2024 and 2025.
• Gas Distribution and Storage Rate Applications: Enbridge Gas Ontario and Enbridge Gas Ohio filed applications for rate adjustments, with decisions impacting revenue and operational strategies through 2028.
• Mainline Optimization Phase 1: This project aims to increase capacity by 150,000 barrels per day on the Mainline System and 100,000 barrels per day on the Flanagan South Pipeline, expected to be in service by 2027.
• Texas Eastern Modernization: The modernization project is set to enhance safety and reliability, with completion expected by 2026.
• T-North Expansion (Aspen Point): This expansion will support 535 mmcf/d of additional capacity, driven by regional demand and potential LNG exports, with a target in-service date in 2026.
• Tennessee Ridgeline Expansion: Aimed at supporting TVA's transition to lower-carbon fuels, this project includes pipeline looping and a solar array, expected to be operational by 2026.
• Woodfibre LNG Project: Enbridge holds a noncontrolling interest in this project, which is expected to be in service by 2027, with updated commercial terms agreed upon in 2025.
• Sequoia Solar: An 815 MW solar farm in Texas, with the first phase completed in 2025 and the second phase expected in late 2026, underpinned by long-term PPAs.
• Clear Fork Solar: A 600 MW solar farm near San Antonio, Texas, fully contracted under a long-term offtake agreement, expected to be in service by 2027.
• Easter Wind Project: A 152 MW onshore wind project in Texas, fully contracted under a long-term offtake agreement, with completion expected in 2026 and 2027.
• Cowboy Phase 1: A 365 MW solar farm and battery energy storage system in Wyoming, expected to be fully operational by 2027.
• Courseulles Offshore Wind: Located off the coast of France, this 448 MW project is expected to be in service by 2027, with revenues underpinned by a 20-year fixed price PPA.

Enbridge Inc. has outlined several strategic initiatives and capital management activities to support its long-term growth and financial stability:

• Mainline System Investment: Plans to invest up to US$1.3 billion through 2028 to extend the service life and enhance reliability and efficiency.
• Expansion Projects: Involvement in projects like the Texas Eastern Modernization and T-North Expansion to increase capacity and support regional demand for natural gas.
• Mainline Optimization Phase 2: A project to provide additional egress from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, expected to enter service in 2028.
• Capital Management: Completed long-term debt issuances totaling $4.6 billion and US$4.7 billion in 2025, enhancing liquidity to fund capital projects and acquisitions. Renewed and extended approximately $22.1 billion of credit facilities with maturities ranging from 2027 to 2030.
• Dividends: Paid $8.2 billion in dividends in 2025 and announced a 3% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.9700 per common share, effective March 1, 2026.
• Future Outlook: Plans to maintain sufficient liquidity to fund capital projects and acquisitions without accessing capital markets for the next 12 months. Strategic investments in infrastructure projects, such as the Pelican CO2 Hub and various gas transmission expansions, to support long-term growth and meet increasing demand. Aims to sustain investment-grade credit ratings and manage financial metrics to ensure ongoing access to funding on attractive terms.

Enbridge Inc. faces several challenges and risks that could impact its business operations and financial performance:

• Regulatory Risks: Involvement in multiple legal proceedings, such as the Line 5 easement dispute with the Bad River Band and the Michigan Line 5 dual pipelines case, which could result in operational disruptions or financial liabilities if adverse rulings are made.
• Operational Risks: Undertaking significant capital projects, such as the Mainline System investment and various gas transmission expansions, which carry risks related to construction delays, cost overruns, and regulatory approvals.
• Market Risks: Exposure to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices, which can affect earnings, cash flows, and the valuation of derivative financial instruments used for hedging purposes.
• Emerging Risks: Expansion of the renewable power generation portfolio introduces new operational and market risks associated with the integration of renewable energy sources and the management of related regulatory requirements.

Management is actively addressing these challenges by implementing comprehensive risk management strategies, including economic hedging programs to mitigate market risks and strategic partnerships to support project execution. Additionally, the company is engaging with regulatory bodies and stakeholders to navigate legal challenges and secure necessary approvals for ongoing and future projects.

Missouri approves new Ameren gas plant and battery site in Jefferson County - Missouri regulators approved a plan to build a new natural gas plant and battery storage facility in Jefferson County on the site of the retired Rush Island coal plant. On Wednesday, the Missouri Public Service Commission formally approved an agreement allowing for construction of a simple cycle combustion turbine generator (CTG) and battery energy storage system (BESS), together to form the Big Hollow Energy Center. The Big Hollow property site, is currently owned by Ameren and was formerly the site of the Rush Island Energy Center, a coal plant that shut down in late 2024 after multiple violations of federal clean air regulations. Current plans call for a 400-megawatt lithium-ion battery storage and installation facility, along with an 800-megawatt, multi-unit simple cycle natural gas electric generation facility, all connected to Ameren’s electric transmission system, according to Ameren and the Missouri PSC.

Data Centers Push Great Lakes Region to the Brink - After years of steady energy consumption rates, the Great Lakes region is expected to see a 2 to 3 percent annual rise in energy demand over the next ten years as data centers pop up at a rapid clip to support the AI boom. Not only will this growth rate place extra stress on local energy grids (and therefore on consumers’ bottom lines), it could also pose a real threat to water resources in an area where freshwater is rarely thought of as scarce.“The energy story emerging today is one of tumultuous change in energy supply and demand coupled with conflicting state and federal objectives that are colliding with a buzzy economic narrative centered around AI and data centers,” states a recent reportfrom Bridge Michigan. With skyrocketing demand from data centers and shifting policy priorities under the Trump administration, local policymakers are scrambling to keep up. Due to these compounding economic and political forces, the development of coal plants, new and revitalized nuclear plants, gas-fired power plants, and battery storage is accelerating in the region. All of these industries require huge amounts of water for their daily operations, and there is question as to whether the region’s water tables can handle the pressure. “As electricity demand is soaring, in part due to data centers, we’re seeing changes in water use, we’re seeing changes in electricity consumption,” Mike Shriberg, director of the University of Michigan Water Center, was quoted by Bridge Michigan. “And how our region responds to that over the long term will have a massive impact for the Great Lakes and for our energy future.”While it’s hard to imagine the Great Lakes running out of water, it’s a real threat. Freshwater is a finite resource, and the Lakes support a huge amount of water demand for the United States. Already, without even considering the increased demand from data centers, there has been considerable concern and even conflict over water withdrawals in the Great Lakes states. Disputes over shared resources and overextraction have popped up in Southwestern Michigan, Minnesota, the Central Sands region of Wisconsin, and Indiana, according to an August 2025 report by the Alliance for the Great Lakes, a non-profit based in Chicago. Conflict has been intensifying as various industries extract more and more water from the lakes, rivers, and water table. Agriculture is a major consumer of water in the region, but the energy industry is the largest consumer, and growing larger all the time. Clean energy, while an environmental net positive, is a particularly major water consumer. “In Indiana, it’s suspected that construction activities associated with dewatering to make way for data centers and an EV battery plant have caused at least three residential wells to fail,” the Alliance reports. Plus, data centers themselves are enormously thirsty, on top of the energy sources that support them. The biggest data centers can consume more than 365 million gallons annually, a mind-blowing sum that is roughly equivalent to the annual water use of 12,000 Americans. As data center development has gone gangbusters in the last few years, water usage has skyrocketed accordingly. Water usage by data centers in the United States tripled from 5.6 billion gallons in 2014 to 17.4 billion gallons by 2023. The result will be enormous strain on regional water resources as well as on local economies, which are already struggling to keep pace with the rapid spread of data center development. Sectors like agriculture won’t just be competing with Big Tech for precious water resources, they will also be footing the bill for skyrocketing energy demand. “As we see some of these big power users wanting to come into the state of Illinois, like data centers and those types of things, there’s some concern by our membership that there’s going to be an over-demand on power,” Kevin Semlow, director of governmental affairs and commodities with the Illinois Farm Bureau, told Brownfield Ag News last year. “As you see demand go up and supply stays the same, what changes? It’s the price.”

Natural Gas Pipeline Buildout Accelerates as 18 Bcf/d LNG Wave Advances -Nearly 18 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity is under construction or sanctioned along the Gulf Coast, but the pipelines needed to move the required feed gas remain a work in progress, with more projects likely yet to be unveiled.Table of U.S. LNG export terminal projects in development, detailing CCL Stage 3, Golden Pass, Rio Grande LNG, Port Arthur, CP2 and Woodside Louisiana, with Bcf/d capacity, trains, pipelines, lead companies. At A Glance:
Pipeline buildout trails LNG FID pace
Haynesville seen supplying two-thirds of supply
Gillis could need another 5 Bcf/d ingress

FERC Upholds Eliminating Order 871 – Pipeline Challenge Rule -- Marcellus Drilling News - One of the environmental left’s favorite tactics to defeat fossil fuel projects is to challenge every single infrastructure project (pipeline or otherwise) connected to fossil energy at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). As soon as a company files an application to build a new project and FERC approves it, Big Green will challenge it first at FERC and eventually in court. FERC had an internal rule, called Order No. 871, that states a company cannot begin construction (even though FERC has approved the certificate) until all such legal challenges are resolved, which can take YEARS. Which is the point—delay, and eventually, some of the projects will give up and won’t be built. Run out the clock. In October, FERC issued a new rule eliminating the Order No. 871 rule, meaning construction can now begin months and years sooner, even while appeals continue (see FERC Cuts Pipeline Challenge Rule; Result is Faster Construction). The enviro-left appealed the decision with FERC, and yesterday, FERC commissioners told the enviro-left to buzz off.

Natural gas tumbles to a 4-month low near $3 as mild weather slashes demand — what to watch next -- U.S. natural gas futures dropped hard on Tuesday, hitting a level not seen in about four months. Traders are looking at mild temperatures and robust supply. March’s contract wrapped up at $3.031 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down 21.2 cents. (Natural Gas Intel)This shift is key: the market’s no longer stuck on “winter shock” mode, it’s back to tracking the weather, day in, day out. If outlooks flip warmer across the biggest U.S. population centers, heating demand can nosedive—prices tend to follow, sometimes in minutes.The timing coincides with traders shifting focus beyond the core winter stretch, eyeing storage levels. The key dynamic: gas left underground versus remaining cold ahead. That equation usually shapes the mood heading into March. NatGasWeather flagged a stretch of unusually warm weather ahead for much of the eastern and central U.S., likely holding national demand “very light” despite the West hanging onto colder conditions. The firm pointed out the latest U.S. storage data showed a 249 Bcf pull for the week ended Feb. 6, and said storage remains below both last year and the five-year norm. (NatGasWeather) Supply remained the key focus. BloombergNEF pegged Lower 48 dry gas production Tuesday at 114.4 billion cubic feet per day, versus demand at 86.2 bcfd. LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals landed at 20.0 bcfd, according to Barchart. Commodity Weather Group, meanwhile, saw above-normal temperatures sticking around the eastern half of the country through Feb. 21. (Barchart) Funds tied to natural gas tracked the fuel’s slide. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) dropped roughly 4.3%. BOIL, a leveraged bet, shed about 7.9%. On the flip side, KOLD, which moves inversely, climbed 7.2%, according to Barchart data. (Barchart)In its February Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration reported that January’s cold snap forced well freeze-offs, knocking production lower. By early February, though, most output had returned. The EIA projects U.S. dry natural gas production will average around 110 billion cubic feet per day for this year, rising above 111 bcfd next year. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)Earlier this month, EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey pointed to the winter price surge, saying it’s likely to push up drilling and output as the year goes on, giving inventories a boost. “Ultimately, this will result in lower natural gas prices next year than we had forecast,” Abbey said. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)The downside isn’t exactly straightforward. If colder weather hits in late February, or another round of freeze-offs strikes, supply could tighten in a hurry and spark sharp short-covering rallies — particularly if LNG feedgas demand holds steady.The next data point arrives Feb. 19, when the EIA is set to publish its weekly natural gas storage numbers at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, as per the usual Thursday timetable. Traders aren’t likely to ignore the daily weather models either, scanning for any hint the current warm streak might snap before month-end. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Comstock to Double Western Haynesville Wells in 2026, Advances NextEra Data Center Project - Comstock Resources detailed plans to continue aggressive development of what CEO Jay Allison called "some of the most valuable gas in the world" - its 535,000 net acre position in the Western Haynesville (blue area in map below, locations of completed wells in red). On today's Q4 2025 conference call, the company announced it plans to turn 24 Western Haynesville wells to sales in 2026 compared to 12 wells in 2025, while maintaining four operated rigs in the area. As the company works to transition the Western Haynesville from an emerging play to major production region, the upcoming year will focus on cost reduction through technology improvements including rotary steerable drilling systems, insulated drill pipe, and upgraded 10,000 PSI rated rigs. Many of these technologies are already in use in other basins, but are now finding their way to the more challenging conditions of the Western Haynesville where operators must drill much deeper wells at more extreme temperatures. The company also provided an update on its previously announced partnership with NextEra Energy to develop a data center project in the Western Haynesville. The company expects to commercialize the project in 2026, with initial capacity of 2 gigawatts and potential future expansion to 8 gigawatts. CEO Jay Allison emphasized Comstock's strategic advantages for the project, noting its proximity to Dallas and Houston, as well as Comstock's unique position of owning both upstream gas resources and midstream infrastructure through Pinnacle Gas Services.

Bits and Pieces, Encore Edition – LNG Exports, Data Centers Have North American Natural Gas Poised for Rapid Growth --The next four years will reshape the future of North America’s natural gas market. LNG exports are set to surge as new terminals across the U.S., Canada and Mexico come online, causing ripple effects through global energy trade and fueling new demand from Europe and Asia. At the same time, the rise of AI and the data centers powering it are contributing to growth in electricity demand, much of which will be met by natural gas. And all of this growing demand is predicated on increasing supplies of affordable natural gas and the midstream infrastructure to get it to market. In today’s RBN blog, we preview our upcoming GasCon 2026 conference, where we’ll bring together expert analysis and leading executives from the upstream, midstream and downstream to show how all the pieces fit together.

Survey Finds Big LNG Buyers Changing Strategy to Short-Term Deals -- Marcellus Drilling News - McKinsey & Company’s 2025 LNG Buyers Survey (full copy below) reveals a strategic shift toward flexibility and risk mitigation as global markets stabilize with upcoming supply from North America and the Middle East. Faced with geopolitical uncertainty, buyers are prioritizing supply diversification and flexible contract terms, specifically regarding destination and volume. While demand is expected to rise in Asia due to price-sensitive coal-to-gas switching, European demand will likely decline as renewables expand. To manage volatility, 70% of buyers are pursuing a mix of short- and long-term contracts (instead of just long-term). Overall, the survey emphasizes that adaptive procurement strategies are essential for navigating today’s evolving energy landscape.

What's that smell? 7,700 gallons of jet fuel spill into the James River - An estimated 7,700 gallons of jet fuel spilled into the James River on Feb. 13 near Newport News Shipbuilding, according to officials. The spill happened during a refueling operation involving the aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy, which is nearing completion at the shipyard, according to a release from the city of Newport News. Residents of Newport News and Hampton complained Sunday about a strong fuel odor coming off the James. According to the Virginia Department of Health, local drinking water and tap water remain safe, and there is no impact to public water systems, the Newport News release said. But there is no broader health threat. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality is leading the environmental response in coordination with the Coast Guard, the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, the Virginia Department of Health, and the cities of Newport News and Hampton. The responsible party—which wasn't named—activated an oil spill response company to begin oil containment and recovery operations, according to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, including deploying a containment boom, conducting boat-based recovery, and using a vacuum truck to remove captured product. The cause of the spill remains under investigation.

7,700 gallons spill during fuel transfer at Newport News -- Approximately 7,749 gallons of JP-5 fuel spilled into the James River on Feb. 13 during a transfer operation at Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News Shipbuilding division, Newport News, Va. The fuel was being transferred from a Navy barge to the future USS John F. Kennedy (CVN 79) when the spill was identified around 1 p.m. ET. In a statement, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) said early estimates significantly understated the volume. “Initial estimates placed the release at approximately 50 gallons; however, follow-up investigations and fuel tank measurements later determined the total volume discharged to be 7,749 gallons.” According to DEQ, “Odors and surface sheens were reported across portions of Newport News and Hampton, prompting coordinated on-water investigation by DEQ, the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM), the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), and fire departments from the cities of Newport News and Hampton.” The shipyard said the transfer was secured and cleanup efforts were initiated immediately. DEQ confirmed that response operations were activated by the responsible party. “The responsible party activated an oil spill response company to begin oil containment and recovery operations, including deploying containment boom, conducting boat-based recovery, and using a vacuum truck to remove captured product. Favorable tides and winds assisted in containing the release, and a USCG drone overflight confirmed the effectiveness of response actions. Most recoverable product remains concentrated near the spill area.” The U.S. Coast Guard Sector Virginia is continuing to monitor the situation. DEQ stated, “Pollution Assessment teams from Coast Guard Sector Virginia, supported by Coast Guard Station Portsmouth boat crews and Unmanned Aircraft Systems, are blanketing the area via land, air, and water to provide real-time tracking of the sheen and ensure rapid response to any shifting conditions.” City officials in Newport News said the cause of the spill remains under investigation. The Virginia Department of Health said there is no impact to local drinking or tap water supplies. While some residents may notice a strong odor and individuals with respiratory conditions could experience headaches or nausea, officials said there is no significant health risk. Residents and boaters were advised to avoid areas of the river where a visible sheen or strong odor is present.

Cleanup underway after tree fell on oil pipeline valve, causing 150-gallon oil spill in Crosby: Officials - ABC13 Houston -- Cleanup is underway after a storm-toppled tree caused an oil spill in Crosby on Saturday night, officials said. According to authorities, the leak occurred near the 16700 block of Golf Club Drive after a tree fell during severe storms and struck a pipeline valve, causing it to malfunction. "You'd think a tree branch, or like, any tree wouldn't crush a pipeline. Pipelines are typically made out of steel, so it's kind of crazy to hear that," said Cannon Stringer, who lives in the area. At about 9:15 p.m., the Harris County Sheriff's Office said deputies responded to reports of a possible gas leak, and residents in the immediate vicinity were told to shelter in place. "We definitely closed our windows, and we didn't drink out of the tap or anything like that," Stringer said. At around 10:30 p.m., the Fire Marshal's Office said its hazmat team had made entry and isolated the leak. Officials confirmed the substance was crude oil, not gas, and lifted the shelter-in-place order. Air monitoring continued as crews worked to secure the area. In a statement, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said a tree branch fell on an Energy Transfer pipeline valve during the evening's storms, causing approximately 150 gallons of crude oil to spill before the valve was shut off. County officials said the oil did not reach nearby homes or bodies of water and only extended about 10 feet from the plant's fence line. First responders placed containment booms around the site to prevent further spread. SkyEye flew over the area on Sunday morning, capturing video of the cleanup effort as crews placed materials on the ground, all welcome news for Stringer. "Hopefully they did the right thing and take that soil up and clean it up and make sure the area is safe going forward too, because the next rain event you don't want any of that washing away into that lake, so that's good to know that they took control of that," Stringer said. The Fire Marshal's Office confirmed the leak did not occur at a water treatment plant and had no impact on plant operations or systems, and said no injuries were reported.

Permian, Gulf of Mexico & Haynesville Shuffle Rigs While Total Count Remains Unchanged For Second Consecutive Week - U.S. oil and gas rig count was unchanged for the second consecutive week, holding at 551 rigs for the week ending February 20 according to Baker Hughes. Rigs were added in the Permian (+1) and All Other (+2), while the Gulf of Mexico (-2) and Haynesville (-1) both declined this week. Total rig count is up two in the last 90 days, but remains down 37 from this week a year ago. Oil-directed rigs at 409, gas-directed rigs at 133 and miscellaneous rigs at 9 were all unchanged this week as well.

Bridger’s 550 Mb/d U.S. Canada Cross-Border Crude Pipeline Play | RBN Energy -Bridger Pipeline Expansion, LLC has filed plans with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality for a new 36-inch crude oil transmission line (yellow dashed line in map below) that would move Canadian crude roughly 645 miles south to Guernsey, Wyoming. Given the proposed border origin point, the only infrastructure capable of supplying that scale of incremental volume is the partially constructed Keystone XL system (red line in map) in Alberta, which has remained idle since 2021. Segments of 36-inch pipe, along with the Hardisty-area terminal and two pump stations, are already in place. By effectively tying into that dormant footprint, Bridger’s proposal would repurpose stranded assets and create a functional cross-border outlet without reviving Keystone XL’s full southern leg. More than half of the Montana segment and all of Wyoming would parallel existing rights-of-way. That approach lowers construction costs and reduces environmental and regulatory risk in a landscape where permitting timelines can make or break project economics. Operationally, the line could interconnect with Bridger’s existing systems at Four Mile and Baker, allowing some Bakken light crude to enter the stream. Although Canadian barrels appear to be the primary target, incremental Bakken receipts would add throughput stability and commercial optionality. Guernsey, however, is not an endpoint but rather a gateway - meaning downstream integration will be critical. According to our friends at Plainview Energy, with an initial capacity of 550 Mb/d, one option for this next step would be a new-build connection to Keystone’s existing pipeline at Steele City, Nebraska, where underutilized capacity exists toward Cushing and Patoka (green line in map). From there, volumes could take advantage of Gulf Coast markets via Marketlink from Cushing or Capline from Patoka. As there isn’t an expandable pipeline with space flowing from Guernsey to Steele City, this would require a new pipeline to be built. Another option is a potential tie-in with Pony Express with additional infrastructure. The existing 20 inch Pony Express pipeline (light blue line in map) typically runs nearly full, transporting crude from Guernsey and Northern Colorado to Cushing. Although it wouldn’t be able to accommodate an additional 550 Mb/d of supply, a secondary line already extends into northern Colorado. By leveraging portions of that secondary line and constructing a new pipeline broadly paralleling the existing Pony Express route to Cushing, Bridger could establish a scalable pathway to market. While this approach would still require significant new build, it would anchor the expansion to a proven corridor and established delivery point, rather than starting from scratch.

House GOP targets green groups over Willow fight - House Republicans are investigating environmental groups over their efforts to stop a major oil and natural gas project in Alaska. GOP leaders on the Natural Resources Committee said Friday that they sent letters to the Center for Biological Diversity, Defenders of Wildlife, Earthjustice, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and the Natural Resources Defense Council, seeking a slew of internal records about their fights against the Willow Project, which President Joe Biden greenlit in 2023. “The Committee is particularly concerned with [the Center for Biological Diversity’s] extensive history of lawfare, including ethically dubious sue and settle tactics, and CBD’s coordination with other activist environmental groups to not only champion a disdain for established essential multiple use principles, but also drown out the voices of native Alaskans while simultaneously undermining American energy independence,” Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chair Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) wrote in their letter to CBD dated Thursday, with similar language in other letters. Each group, the lawmakers wrote, “appears determined to ignore Willow’s indispensability, undermine American energy security, and obstruct native Alaskan prosperity through its unscrupulous coordinated litigation tactics.”

Interior moves to open 2M acres in Alaska to drilling, mining - The Interior Department announced Friday it is revoking two public land withdrawals along a highway important to the oil and mining industries in Alaska after the state accused the Biden administration of reneging on a promise to do so two years ago. The issue involves Interior issuing a public land order that would lift restrictions on the use of federal lands covering more than 2 million acres along a significant stretch of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and a highway used by the oil industry. The state has long sought access to those lands, which are critical to the future of its oil economy. It wants them turned over to Alaska as part of its ongoing efforts to gain title to millions of acres of land currently under federal ownership. The Bureau of Land Management was supposed to launch an analysis into lifting the restrictions but then abruptly changed course in 2024, sparking an angry response from Alaska’s elected leaders.

LNG Floods Europe, Keeping Lid on TTF Prices Despite Storage Deficit -A steady influx of LNG to Europe, combined with exceptionally weak Asian demand are keeping global natural gas prices low as the winter draws to a close. European Union gas storage chart showing inventories at 383.22 TWh, 33.5% full as of Feb. 15, 2026, down 151.3 TWh year/year and below the five-year average by 177.0 TWh. At A Glance:
European imports outpacing recent weeks
Lunar New Year weighing on Asia demand
Golden Pass LNG ramping up

Europe’s Storage Deficit Expected to Continue Pulling U.S. LNG During Strong Restocking Season -European LNG imports hit a monthly record in January, but storage inventories are on track to end the winter at their lowest point since 2018 as the continent has become more reliant on seaborne shipments of the fuel since Russia cut off most of its pipeline deliveries. Table titled “U.S. Gulf Coast LNG Netback Prices (12-Month Strip)” as of Feb 18, 2026, showing JKM, NBP and TTF futures, shipping costs, Gulf Coast netbacks and margins over Henry Hub, with April 2026 netbacks near $10/MMBtu and margins above $7/MMBtu.At A Glance:
Storage at 32.5% of capacity
10–15 Mt of demand expected
40 Mt of new LNG coming to market

China Pullback Shifts LNG Demand Focus to Southeast Asia -As the 2026 restocking season approaches, the center of gravity in the global LNG market is shifting as traditional giants like China and Japan pull back from the volatile spot market. NGI chart of prompt month natural gas statistics for previous five trading days, showing U.S., Europe, Asia fundamentals, Henry Hub futures, LNG feedgas, storage, spark spreads, global DES prices in $/MMBtu. At A Glance:
TTF, JKM hover near $10
Lower prices lure sensitive buyers
China leans on coal, hydro

EU Considers Emergency Steps to Restore Russian Oil Through Druzhba Pipeline -A European Commission spokeswoman on February 17 confirmed that Brussels was in touch with Ukraine regarding the Druzhba pipeline that has been damaged since late January, preventing Russian oil from flowing to Hungary and Slovakia."We are in contact with Ukraine on the timeline for reparation of the Druzhba oil pipeline and how quickly this might be up and running," Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told journalists in Brussels, adding the EU executive was ready to call an emergency coordination group with relevant parties to discuss alternative routes to fuel supply. Itkonen also said there were "no short-term risks to security of supply for Hungary and Slovakia" as they hold 90 days of reserve stocks.The halt of Russian oil via the pipeline has caused tensions between Ukraine and EU member states Hungary and Slovakia.While Kyiv has maintained that a Russian drone attack was responsible for the disruption starting on January 27, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on February 15 that Ukraine had delayed the restart of the oil flow in order to pressure Hungary to drop its veto on Ukraine's future membership of the European Union.Fico said this was "political blackmail."While the European Union has imposed an import ban on Russian oil via pipelines over the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, landlocked Hungary and Slovakia secured exemptions to those sanctions.On February 16, Budapest also expressed its wish to invoke the temporary exemption to import seaborne Russian crude oil via Croatia using the Adria pipeline."We request Croatia to enable the transport of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia via the Adria pipeline, as our sanctions exemption provides the possibility to import Russian oil by sea if pipeline deliveries are disrupted," Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto wrote on X.Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar said Zagreb should be able to help,tweeting that "Croatia will not allow Central Europe's fuel supply to be endangered. We are ready to help solve the acute disruption."He did, however, also criticize Budapest and Bratislava in the same post on X for so far not being able to diversify from Russian energy imports by adding that "the Adria pipeline is ready, so there are no technical excuses left for staying tied to Russian crude for any EU country. A barrel bought from Russia may appear cheaper to some countries, but helps fund war and attacks on Ukrainian people. It's time to stop that war profiteering."

FT Uncovers $90 Billion Russian Oil Smuggling Operation -- Nearly fifty seemingly separate companies have been involved in coordinating to mask the origin of Russian oil, moving crude worth at least $90 billion, an investigation of the Financial Times has found. FT uncovered the network due to an IT blunder—the 48 identified entities all share a single private email server. The oil smuggling network includes firms and persons linked to Russia’s top oil producer, state-controlled Rosneft, and these have been in coordination to mask the origin of Russian crude, especially of Rosneft. The profits are estimated very conservatively at $90 billion, but are likely much higher, according to FT’s investigation. The U.S. slapped sanctions on Rosneft in October 2025, effectively cutting off a major market for the Kremlin-controlled firm. The Russians and their connections were not deterred—they intensified the smuggling operations. Since October 2025, one company part of the network, Redwood Global Supply, has been the single biggest exporter of Russian crude oil, according to FT’s investigation. Redwood Global Supply was sanctioned by the UK in December 2025 together with 13 other “entities and individuals involved in supporting the Russian energy sector.” Some of the companies in the email server are already known to EU sanctions authorities for being involved in shady operations and likely helping sell Russian crude, the FT notes. But the true scale of the smuggling operation is unclear. It’s not clear how many other persons or entities are involved, either, according to FT. The uncovered sprawling smuggling network comes as no surprise for analysts, who say the oil trading business is so lucrative that there are always entities involved in selling sanctioned crude cargoes. “It’s quite obvious that Rosneft and Lukoil are using the same oil marketing networks and tankers to circumvent sanctions and keep oil flowing,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime expert at marine intelligence company Windward, told FT.

Discovery Off Brazil Has About 8 Billion BOE in Place: BP -There are about 8 billion boe in place in BP’s Bumerangue discovery offshore Brazil, the company said in its earnings report for Q4 2025. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the estimate and plans are being made for an appraisal program that will start around the end of the year, Chief Financial Officer Kate Thomson said on the earnings call.At the time the discovery was announced in August 2025, BP said it was its biggest in 25 years and that it expected well activities to begin in 2027.BP said it started up seven new major projects and set a record for upstream plant reliability in 2025, which supported flat underlying production versus 2024, exceeding its guidance from 12 months ago. It said upstream production is expected to be slightly lower in 2026, with oil production and operations to be broadly flat and gas and low-carbon energy to be lower. Combined oil and gas output was 2,344 Mboe/d in Q4 2025. Capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated at $13 billion to $13.5 billion, about level with 2025, with the spending weighted toward Q1 2026.

Vermilion's Wandoo gas exports halted after December oil spill - Vermilion must cease petroleum export at Wandoo until the regulator is satisfied that the environmental risks have been reduced. The federal regulator has halted exports from a foreign-owned gas field after an oil spill off Western Australia's north coast in December. The National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) said it had found "systemic failures" by Vermilion Oil and Gas Australia at its Wandoo facility, about 80 kilometres north-east of Karratha. The "recurring themes" of earlier inspections then culminated in an unplanned leak of petroleum. A spokesperson for Vermilion confirmed the December 11 incident in a statement. "The leak contained a limited amount of oil and seawater, as a pressure test and flush had just been completed," the spokesperson said. "The equipment was depressurised to reduce the amount of oil and water released from the escape point, and a plug was successfully inserted." Vermilion, which has owned the Wandoo field since 2005, said methods of containment or dispersal were not needed. The Canadian-owned producer engaged the Australian Marine Oil Spill Centre and self-reported to NOPSEMA, estimating about four cubic metres of oil and water were spilled. No impact on wildlife has been revealed thus far. NOPSEMA said the incident, combined with a failed environmental inspection in October 2025, showed "repeated non-compliance" and "inadequate implementation of inspection, maintenance, and assurance processes". The regulator has issued a general direction to Vermilion to cease all gas export from the Wandoo system until it is satisfied appropriate interim controls have been put in place. It has also required a third-party review, corrective actions and a transition to a fully replaced oil export system by the end of 2027.

Oil Prices Subdued As US, Iran Resume Talks - Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors weighed prospects of OPEC+ supply increases and awaited upcoming U.S.-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions. Benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 0.2 percent to $67.65 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 0.2 percent at $62.65. Due to Presidents' Day holiday in the United States, there will be no official settlement for WTI today. Both contracts posted modest losses last week after U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects a nuclear deal with Iran to materialize within the next month. The two countries will hold a second round of talks over Tehran's nuclear program this week, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urging Trump to demand Iran dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Ahead of the talks taking place on Tuesday in Geneva, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC in an interview that the country is ready to consider compromises to reach a nuclear deal with the United States in return for the lifting of sanctions. Meanwhile, media reports suggest the OPEC+ alliance is considering "resuming output increases" starting in April. No decision has yet been ?made and talks will continue in the weeks ahead of the meeting on March 1, it was said.

Oil prices edge higher ahead of US–Iran nuclear talks - Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, with investors weighing the market implications of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions against a backdrop of expected OPEC+ supply increases. Brent crude futures gained 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.16 a barrel by 1508 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.32 a barrel, up 43 cents. The contract will have no settlement on Monday, the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States. Fears of supply disruption from the U.S.-Iran tensions have helped keep oil prices stable. Trading is set to be muted also with markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Last week, both benchmarks posted weekly declines with Brent settling about 0.5% lower and WTI losing 1% after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington could make a deal with Tehran over the next month. The two countries are due to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday over Tehran’s nuclear programme. In the run-up to the talks with Washington, mediated by Oman, Iran’s foreign minister met with the U.N. nuclear watchdog chief. Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides, with energy and mining investments and aircraft purchases up for discussion, an Iranian diplomat was reported as saying. The U.S. is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks do not succeed, U.S. officials have told Reuters. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they could retaliate against any U.S. military base. “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel,” SEB analysts said in a note. With U.S.-Iran tensions pushing up oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - together called OPEC+ - are putting a dampener on this bullishness by leaning toward a decision to resume output increases from April at their March 1 meeting following a three-month halt, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, China’s Russian oil imports are set to climb for a third straight month to a new record in February after India slashed purchases on the back of U.S. pressure, according to traders and ship-tracking data.

Brent Oil Prices Drop on Iran Naval Drills Ahead of US Talks | Ukraine news - Brent oil price fell on Asian markets on Tuesday amid expectations of supply disruptions caused by Iran’s naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of planned talks between the United States and Iran. According to market analysts, the market remains sensitive due to potential supply constraints and geopolitical tensions that could affect oil prices. Brent futures fell 0.47% to hit $68.33 per barrel at 04:30 GMT (06:30 Kyiv time), after rising 1.33% in the previous trading day. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI crude traded at $63.51 per barrel, up $0.62, or 0.99%. However, this uptick largely reflected Monday’s momentum, as some contracts did not settle due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States. Many market platforms were closed on Tuesday due to Chinese New Year holidays, including in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was indirectly involved in the talks in Geneva, adding that, in his view, Iran is looking to strike a deal. Over the weekend, Trump said that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.” “Market sentiment is closely tied to the tone and pace of these talks, which supports the geopolitical risk premium in prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of the Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil output increases from April as the group gears up for peak summer demand, with prices supported by the tension between the United States and Iran. “Our base case envisions that deals with Iran and between Russia and Ukraine will be concluded by or during the summer this year, which would help push prices down to $60-62 per barrel of Brent,” Citi said. Analysts note that the market could face further swings depending on how talks unfold and any potential deals that could affect global supply. Still, the current momentum underscores pressure on Brent and the potential price range in the coming months.

Oil Prices Fall on US-Iran Talks Progress (DTN) -- Oil and product futures mostly slid Tuesday morning after Iran's foreign minister signaled substantive progress in talks with the United States, which is attempting to shut down Tehran's nuclear program. In crude, NYMEX WTI futures for March delivery slid $0.20 to $62.69 bbl, and ICE Brent for April delivery fell $1.01 to $67.64 bbl. Downstream, front-month ULSD futures were down $0.0032 to $2.3847 gallon. RBOB for March delivery bucked the trend, rising $0.0038 to $1.9148 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.446 points to 97.265 against a basket of foreign currencies. Following indirect negotiations between U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Geneva earlier Friday, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the two parties had reached an "understanding on main principles," and have a "clearer path forward". Following the remarks, front-month WTI futures briefly plunged $0.85 bbl. Oil prices rose earlier on Tuesday after Iran announced it will close the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours for a military drill. Prices soon steadied, as the announced temporary closure of the vital oil chokepoint was interpreted as an Iranian show of force with negligible impact on global supply. A rising geopolitical risk premium tied to U.S.-Iran tensions has so far this year supported prices against an otherwise bearish backdrop of market fundamentals. The International Energy Agency in its latest monthly oil market report published Thursday, Feb. 12, cut demand growth expectations for 2026, forecasting a 3.7 million bpd crude oversupply this year. Meanwhile, supply constraints elsewhere prevented a deeper price plunge. Ukraine on Tuesday announced it had struck yet another refinery inside Russia, ahead of trilateral talks scheduled for today. The outcome of negotiations brokered by the U.S. in Geneva is another factor keeping oil price volatility elevated.

Oil prices slide 2% to two-week low on talk of progress in US-Iran talks (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 2% to a two-week low on Tuesday on hopes tensions between the United States and Iran were easing after Iran's foreign minister said the countries had reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" of their nuclear talks. Brent futures fell $1.23, or 1.8%, to settle at $67.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 56 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $62.33. Those were the lowest closes for Brent since February 3 and for WTI since February 2. Iran and the United States reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of indirect talks in Geneva over their nuclear dispute on Tuesday, but that does not mean a deal is imminent, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said. The talks took place amid a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Iran's supreme leader said on Tuesday that any U.S. attempt to depose his government would fail. Separately, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday, Iranian state media reported, without making clear whether the waterway, one of the world's most vital oil export routes, had fully reopened. Oil prices are likely to stay volatile, with sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals, said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm. Investors are closely watching U.S.-Iran relations as any escalation or conflict could lead to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the between Oman and Iran, making any disruptions in the area a major risk to global oil supplies. Iran and fellow Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait, mainly to Asia. In 2025, Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Another factor weighing on prices was the gradual increase in oil production at Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oil field after an outage in January, Russian news agency Interfax reported. Also in Geneva on Tuesday, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia concluded the first of two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva on Tuesday, with U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal to end the four-year conflict. Any peace resolution could see a lifting of sanctions on Russia, bringing Russian oil back to the mainstream market. In 2025, Russia was the third-biggest crude producer in the world behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, according to data from the U.S. EIA. Ukraine, meanwhile, continued its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday it struck the Ilsky refinery, while a drone attack was also reported at the port of Taman.

Oil prices rise amidst geopolitical, geoeconomic concerns - Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as markets struggled with geopolitical balance, as a result of sustained fluctuation between supply and demand outlook. U.S policy instability has stoked pressures on geoeconnomic stressing global economic projections. Brent crude traded at $67.09 per barrel, up 0.2% from the previous close of $66.93. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.2 per cent to $62.32 per barrel, compared with $62.18 in the previous session. Markets focused on comments from US Vice President JD Vance, who said a second round of negotiations with Iran had been productive “in some ways,” but that Tehran was “not yet willing” to engage on certain “red lines” set by President Donald Trump. “Our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon,” the vice president said during an interview with Fox News. “In some ways, it went well. They agreed to meet afterwards. But in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through,” Vance added. The Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while the US team was headed by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Araghchi said there had been progress in Geneva, describing the atmosphere as “more constructive.” “It was decided that both sides will work on the drafts of a potential agreement, and after exchanging the texts,” he said. “The timing of the next round of talks will be determined.” Iran’s top diplomat added that a clear path lies ahead for nuclear negotiations with the American side, which is “assessed positively” from Iran’s perspective. On February 6, Oman hosted a first round of indirect talks in Muscat, the first since Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June. Trump has since directed a US military buildup in the region as he threatens Iran to make a deal with Washington. While the comments suggested some progress, investors appeared reluctant to price in a full easing of geopolitical risk without clearer signs of a concrete agreement. Any durable deal could eventually open the door to changes in Iran’s oil supply outlook, but for now uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said Tuesday that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to continue negotiations following a third set of trilateral discussions in Geneva. “Today, at President (Donald) Trump’s direction, the United States moderated a third set of trilateral discussions with Ukraine and Russia,” he said on the US social media platform X. Witkoff thanked Switzerland for hosting the meetings. “Both parties agreed to update their respective leaders and continue working towards a deal,” he added. His remarks came after the first day of US-brokered peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations ended without any significant developments. The US was represented by Witkoff and Kushner, who entered the negotiations after assisting with indirect discussions with Iranian officials at another location in the Swiss city earlier Tuesday. Analysts say any shift in the geopolitical balance could inject a risk premium into oil prices. Markets are also watching US inventory data, with figures from the American Petroleum Institute due later Wednesday and the Energy Information Administration’s official report expected

Oil Prices Surge 3% After Russia-Ukraine Talks Break Down -- Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Wednesday after peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended abruptly after only two hours. The failure to reach a breakthrough heightened market fears that sanctions and supply restrictions on Russian oil will persist longer than previously anticipated. Brent crude for April delivery was up 2.74% to trade at $69.15 per barrel at 8.20 am ET in Wednesday’s morning session while WTI crude for March delivery gained 2.79% to change hands at $64.05 per barrel.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the talks “difficult” and said Russia was dragging its feet rather than moving seriously toward ending the war, now in its fourth year. Before the breakdown, traders had started to factor in the possibility of a “peace dividend”, in which Russian crude could flow more freely back into global markets. When the negotiations stalled, that expectation faded, and oil prices moved higher as geopolitical risk returned to the forefront.Traders are also focused on Iran. U.S.-mediated nuclear talks could eventually lead to some sanctions relief and allow more Iranian crude onto the market. At the same time, joint naval drills with Russia and renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes, are keeping supply risks in view. That balance between possible additional barrels and potential disruption is adding to price swings.Meanwhile, tensions remain high following reports that Hungary has halted diesel shipments to Ukraine until crude flows through the Druzhba pipeline are fully restored. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that the cessation is a direct response to the halt of Russian oil transit through Ukraine, which has been blocked since January 27, 2026. Hungary has called the halt in crude shipments “political blackmail” by Ukraine and insists there is no technical reason the transit cannot restart. To secure supplies, Hungary’s MOL Group has asked to tap about 250,000 tons of strategic crude reserves and is looking at moving Russian oil through Croatia via the Adriatic pipeline. Slovakia has also warned that continued disruption could affect fuel imports and force limits on exports. Adding to the strain, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovi? has voiced reservations about increasing the transit of Russian crude to Hungary through Croatia’s territory, suggesting that any expanded use of the Adriatic pipeline could face political scrutiny in Zagreb.

Oil jumps 4% after Vance says Iran ignored key U.S. demands, military strikes on the table - Oil prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, after Vice President JD Vance said Iran did not address U.S. red lines in nuclear talks this week and President Donald Trump reserves the right to use military force. U.S. crude oil rose $2.86, or 4.59%, to close at $65.19 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent was up $2.93, or 4.35%, to settle at $70.35 per barrel. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, described the discussions as "constructive," according to Iranian media. Araghchi said the talks yielded a general agreement on guiding principles. Oil prices closed lower Tuesday as traders interpreted the foreign minister's comments as a sign that the U.S. and Iran could still reach a settlement. But Vance said Tehran had failed to address core U.S. demands. "In some ways it went well, they agreed to meet afterwards," the vice president told Fox News on Tuesday evening. "But in other ways it is very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through." Trump reserves the right to use force if diplomacy does not succeed in stopping Iran's nuclear program, Vance said. "We do have a very powerful military — the president has shown a willingness to use it," the vice president told Fox News. Sources told Axios, meanwhile, that a U.S. military campaign against Iran would likely be massive, last weeks and look more like a full-fledged war than the raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. Iran's Revolutionary Guard conducted war games this week in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade choke point for global oil flows. About one-third of all waterborne crude exports pass through the narrow waterway, according to data from energy consulting firm Kpler. The market is worried those oil flows would be disrupted if the U.S. and Iran go to war. Iranian state media said traffic in part of the strait was closed Tuesday due to the military exercises. Kpler did not observe any halt in traffic in the strait on Tuesday, said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at the firm. Trump has stationed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Middle East. The USS Gerald Ford is en route to the region. Trump said Friday he deployed the second aircraft carrier in case negotiations fail. "If we don't have a deal, we'll need it," the president told reporters outside the White House. The Iranian government did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Brent Oil Price Tops $71 as Fears of U.S.-Iran Conflict Grow --Following a 4% surge on Wednesday, oil prices advanced by another 1.6% in European trade early on Thursday to send Brent to above $71.50, the highest level in six months, as concerns about a U.S. military campaign in Iran intensified.The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was up by 1.71% at $71.55 in morning trade in Europe, as the U.S.-Iran talks appear to make no headway, while the U.S. is amassing military forces near the Persian Gulf.The U.S. benchmark oil prices, WTI Crude, also jumped to trade at $66.37 per barrel, up by 1.83% on the day, following the 4% surge at Wednesday’s settlement.The U.S. Administration has warned Iran that it would be “very wise” to make a deal as diplomatic efforts and talks continue. On Wednesday, Axios reported that the U.S. is moving closer to a war with Iran. A campaign in Iran would be nothing like the Venezuela blitz and could involve “a massive, weeks-long campaign,” Axios reported, citing sources. U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision about a possible military intervention, sources with knowledge of the discussions among top U.S. national security officials told CBS News. But the President has discussed options, including a strike that could be ordered as soon as this coming Saturday, according to the sources. “For oil markets, the concern is clearly what action would mean not only for Iranian oil supply, but also broader Persian Gulf oil flows, given the risk of disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING strategists wrote in a Thursday note. Adding to the difficult U.S.-Iran talks, the Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva also broke down without any breakthrough and pushed oil prices higher.Moreover, the shape of the ICE Brent futures curve suggests that the oil market is “tighter than what many analysts have been expecting, including us,” ING’s strategists said, noting that many buyers aren’t touching large volumes of sanctioned barrels, which is tightening supply.

WTI Extends Geopolitical Risk Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws -Oil prices pushed higher Thursday on worries that nuclear talks between US and Iran might not avert a new conflict that could threaten supplies. "Oil is extending its gains, with Brent crude back above $70 a barrel... as fears of a military confrontation between the US and Iran rattled energy markets," "Nuclear talks between the two sides appear to be going nowhere fast, and the geopolitical premium is clearly back in play," he added. On top of that, API reported an across the board draw in energy inventories. “The failure to resolve core areas of contention continues to tip the scales in favor of another military confrontation,” “The massive buildup of US military assets in the region as well as the recent Iranian naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz seem to suggest that the launch sequence for a second military conflict has commenced.” Will the official data confirm API's draws and build (pun intended) on the geopolitical risk premia in crude prices... API:

• Crude -609k
• Cushing -1.4mm
• Gasoline -312k
• Distillates -1.6mm

DOE:

• Crude -9.014mm - biggest draw since Sept 2025
• Cushing -1.095mm - biggest draw since Jun 2025
• Gasoline -3.21mm - biggest draw since Oct 2025
• Distillates -4.566mm

The official data confirmed API with inventory draws across the board. Crude saw its biggest destocking since September and Gasoline stocks fell for the first time since Nov 7th... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. US crude production extended its rebound from the storm slowdown... WTI is trading near $67 after the official inventory data, extending gains..."Geopolitical issues, above all Iran, are the key bullish factor in the oil market at the moment," University of Texas-Austin energy analyst Ben Cahill tells Axios via email."Otherwise there's not a whole lot of price support toward $70 [per barrel]. The slack in this market could embolden the White House," he said. Iran exports about 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China. But the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage next to Iran, is a choke point that handles a whopping one-fourth or so of the world's maritime oil trade. "For oil markets, the concern is clearly what action would mean not only for Iranian oil supply, but also broader Persian Gulf oil flows, given the risk of disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note on Wednesday.

Escalating U.S.–Iran Tensions Send the Oil Market to Six-Month Highs -- The oil market rallied higher on Thursday and ended the session at its highest level in six months amid worries of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or “bad things” will happen, and appeared to set a 10-day deadline before the U.S. might take action. The U.S. has deployed aircraft carriers, warships and jets to the region, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance saying Washington was considering whether it should continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran or pursue another option. Meanwhile, according to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Iran issued a notice to airmen that it planned rocket launches in areas across the south of the country on Thursday. The market posted a low of $64.88 on the opening and continued to trend higher throughout the session. The market was further supported by the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report, which showed an unexpected draw in crude stocks of 9 million barrels in the week ending February 13th. The EIA also reported large draws in distillates and gasoline stocks amid higher demand. The oil market rallied to a high of $66.88 in afternoon trading and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The March WTI ended the session up $1.24 or 1.9% at $66.43 and the April Brent contract settled up $1.31 or 1.9% at $71.66. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 9.6 cents at $2.6147 and the RB market settling up 3.86 cents at $2.0666. The EIA reported that U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as demand increased from refineries to the fuel pump. Crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels in the week ended February 13th. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 1.1 million barrels. Total product supplied, a proxy for demand, increased by 540,000 bpd to 21.65 million bpd. U.S. product supplied of distillate fuel oil increased to 4.75 million bpd, the highest since January 2022. Gasoline demand increased by 449,000 bpd to 8.75 million bpd. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or “bad things” will happen, and appeared to set a 10-day deadline before the U.S. might take action. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were going well but insisted Tehran has to reach a “meaningful” agreement. He called on Tehran to join the U.S. on the “path to peace.” On Wednesday, a senior U.S. official said that Iran was expected to submit a written proposal on how to resolve its standoff with the United States after the talks in Geneva. The official said U.S. national security advisers met in the White House on Wednesday and were told all U.S. military forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March. The Environmental Protection Agency reported that the U.S. generated fewer renewable blending credits in January. It reported that about 1.22 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in January, compared with about 1.32 billion in December. It reported that credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending fell to 438 million in January from 670 million in December.

Oil Prices Hover Near Six-month High On US-Iran Tensions - Oil hovered near its highest level since August on Friday amid rising geopolitical risks after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran that it had a "maximum" 15 days to reach a deal with the U.S. or "bad things will happen". Benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 0.2 percent to $71.53 a barrel but were set for a 6 percent weekly gain. WTI crude futures were down 0.3 percent at $66.22 after adding about 7 percent in the prior two sessions. A stronger dollar prompted traders to book profits at higher levels as investors waited for cues from the release of U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data later in the day. After the failure of multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Trump has set a 10-15 day deadline for Iran to agree nuclear deal or face "bad things". With potential U.S. military action looming, Iran has warned that U.S. bases in the Middle East could be "legitimate targets" if Washington attacks. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reportedly blocked a request from Trump to allow U.S. forces to use U.K. air bases during any pre-emptive attack on Iran, saying it could break international law. Elsewhere, U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said today that the United States doesn't want anyone buying Russian oil and President Trump "has been clear on this." Underlining Washington's push for India to diversify its crude imports amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, Gor said that discussions are underway between the U.S. Department of Energy and India's Ministry of Energy over potential imports of Venezuelan crude.

Trump Says He Is 'Considering' Limited Strike On Iran To Pressure It Into Deal - US President Donald Trump said he was considering a limited strike on Iran after ordering a major naval buildup in the Middle East aimed at heaping pressure on Tehran to cut a deal to curb its nuclear programme. The latest threat came after Iran's foreign minister said a draft proposal for an agreement with Washington would be ready in a matter of days following negotiations between the two sides in Geneva earlier this week. Trump had suggesting on Thursday that "bad things" would happen if Tehran did not strike a deal within 10 days, which he subsequently extended to 15. Asked by a reporter on Friday whether he was contemplating a limited military strike, Trump answered: "The most I can say -- I am considering it." After the talks in Geneva, Tehran said the two sides had agreed to submit drafts of a potential agreement, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told US media would be the "next step". "I believe that in the next two, three days, that would be ready, and after final confirmation by my superiors, that would be handed over to Steve Witkoff," he said, referring to Trump's main Middle East negotiator. Araghchi also said US negotiators had not requested that Tehran end its nuclear enrichment programme, contradicting statements from American officials. "We have not offered any suspension, and the US side has not asked for zero enrichment," he said in an interview released Friday by US TV network MS NOW. "What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran's nuclear programme, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever," he added. His comments stand in contrast to information relayed by high-ranking US officials, including Trump, who has repeatedly said Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium at any level. Western countries accuse the Islamic republic of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies, though it insists on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes. Iran, for its part, is seeking to negotiate an end to sanctions that have proven to be a massive drag on its economy. Economic hardships sparked protests in December that evolved into a nationwide anti-government movement last month, prompting a crackdown from authorities that left thousands dead, rights groups say. The two foes held an initial round of discussions on February 6 in Oman, the first since previous talks collapsed during the 12-day Iran-Israel war last June, which the US joined by striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Washington has pursued a major military build-up in the region in tandem with the talks, and both sides have traded threats of military action for weeks. On Thursday, Trump again suggested the US would attack Iran if it did not make a deal within the timeframe he laid out. "We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen," Trump told the inaugural meeting of the "Board of Peace", his initiative for the post-war Gaza Strip. Iran's ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, warned that US bases, facilities and assets would be "legitimate targets" if the United States followed through on its threats. Araghchi, however, insisted that "there is no ultimatum". "We only talk with each other how we can have a fast deal. And a fast deal is something that both sides are interested about," he said. "We are under sanctions, (so) obviously any day that sanctions are terminated sooner it would be better for us," he said, adding Iran had "no reason to delay". Washington has repeatedly called for zero enrichment, but has also sought to address Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for militant groups in the region -- issues which Israel has pushed to include in the talks. The Israeli army said Friday that it was on "defensive alert" regarding the situation with Iran, but that its guidelines for the public remained unchanged. Ratcheting up the pressure, Trump has deployed a significant naval force to the region. After sending the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and escort battleships to the Gulf in January, he ordered a second carrier, the Gerald Ford, to depart for the Middle East. Iranian naval forces also conducted military drills this week in the Gulf and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz in their own show of force.

Oil prices stable as Trump considers limited military strike against Iran - Oil prices were stable on Friday, after President Donald Trump said he was considering a limited military strike to pressure Iran over its nuclear program."I guess I can say I am considering that," Trump said when asked by a reporter at a White House breakfast with U.S. governors.International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery rose 10 cents to close at $71.76 per barrel, while U.S.West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery lost 4 cents to settle at $66.39.Both contracts notched their highest settle in six months in the previous session as energy market participants continue to monitor supply risks in the oil-rich Middle East.The U.S. and Iran have held talks in Switzerland this week to try to resolve a standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. Initial reports of progress, however, gave way to accusations from Washington that Iran had failed to address core U.S. demands.Speaking at the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. president said "bad things will happen" if Tehran doesn't agree to a deal over its nuclear program.Trump added that the world will likely find out over the next 10 days whether the U.S. will reach a deal with Iran or take military action. He later told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted an agreement within "10 to 15 days." His comments come after a significant buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East and amid reports the White House is considering fresh military action against Tehran as soon as this weekend.Trump said Iran's nuclear potential had been "totally decimated" by U.S. strikes on its facilities in June last year, before adding "we may have to take it a step further or we may not," without providing further details.Iran reportedly said in a letter to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday that Tehran will respond "decisively" if subjected to military aggression.The Islamic Republic has conducted military drills in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz in recent days, as well as joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman, also known as the Sea of Oman. "Everything is in place, or will be by Saturday night, for strikes to commence and so the window opens then," Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, told CNBC's "Access Middle East" on Friday."Doesn't mean that's going to happen immediately. The president did indicate that he is waiting to hear from Iran whether they are prepared to make concessions on their nuclear program that he's insisting on," Shapiro said."I think it's unlikely. We have never seen Iran open to those types of concessions, so I think it is unlikely they will agree to those, which means that in the days coming, the president will have to make that decision on military strikes," he added.The Trump administration has said it still hopes to reach a diplomatic resolution over Tehran's nuclear program, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that it would be "very wise" for Iran to make a deal.Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that, while the oil market is "very well supplied" on a global basis, there are three factors propping up prices."Worries about Iran, clearly. Also, an unusually large amount of buying by China, simply for stockpiling purposes. It makes you wonder what they are going to do with all these inventories and then also we have very high freight rates," Rats told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" on Friday.Strategists at Barclays said Friday that while equity markets have largely shrugged off the geopolitical noise so far, tensions have been rising since Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to discuss so-called "red lines," alongside reports of increased U.S. military capability in the region."We believe that any strike would likely have to be time limited and with defined targets (nuclear, ballistic missiles), as they were last summer," the strategists said in a research note. “With midterm elections later this year and the administration prioritizing affordability for US consumers, we suspect their willingness to tolerate a prolonged period of significantly higher oil prices, and potentially casualties too, will be limited," they continued. "So if conflict is imminent it is likely to be short lived, in our view."

Report: US Preparing for Sustained, Weeks-Long War Against Iran If Trump Orders Attack - The US military is preparing for the possibility of a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran if President Trump orders an attack on the country, Reuters has reported, as the US continues to build up its forces in the region.The report, which cited two unnamed US officials, said a US attack on Iran could lead to a far more serious conflict than the two countries have seen before. All signs indicate that Iran wouldn’t hold back or give the US notice in advance of a counterattack as it did during the 12-Day War after the US bombed its nuclear facilities.President Trump has continued his threats against Iran despite Washington and Tehran now engaging in negotiations, which are set to resume on Tuesday in Geneva. Trump said on Friday that regime change in Iran would be “the best thing that could happen.”The New York Times reported that Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran, including strikes on its nuclear facilities, attacks meant to hurt its ability to launch missiles, and even the possibility of sending US commandos into the country. US officials acknowledged to the Times that taking out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be much more difficult than the attack on Venezuela to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro. If Iran is attacked and believes it faces an existential threat, it could unleash its missiles on US bases and warships in the region, a scenario that would inflict a massive number of American casualties. To prepare for Iranian counterattacks, the US has reportedly been deploying additional Patriot missile systems and an additional THAAD air defense battery to its bases in the Middle East. During the 12-Day War, the US used about 20% of all of its THAAD interceptors defending Israel from attacks, and missiles still got through.

Huckabee Says US and Israel 'Absolutely Aligned' on Iran - US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said on Monday that the US and Israel are “absolutely aligned” on the need to “deal” with Iran as Washington continues building up its forces in the Middle East to prepare for a potential attack on the Islamic Republic. Huckabee made the comments when addressing the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem, where he cast doubt on the idea that the US and Iran could reach a diplomatic deal and said that another US attack on the country is likely. “At some point, the United States has to say, enough is enough,” Huckabee said, according to Haaretz. “Either Iran makes a radical change in direction, or it experiences what we call in the South the second kick of a mule. There is no education in the second kick. If you didn’t learn the first time, you won’t learn the second.” The US and Iran are set to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday. Israel wants any deal to involve restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missiles, a demand designed to collapse diplomacy since Tehran’s missiles are its only form of deterrence. According to Iranian officials, the US has dropped the demand for an agreement that includes missiles, but President Trump and other Trump administration officials continue to push the issue. Huckabee said that the US and Israel have agreed that Iran cannot “continue building vast surpluses of ballistic missiles.” President Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if a deal isn’t reached, echoing threats he made in the lead-up to the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran that was launched in June 2025, just days before another round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran were scheduled to be held.

From Israel, Sen. Lindsey Graham Pushes for War on Iran While Admitting US Troops Could Be 'Hit' - From Israel on Monday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) pushed for a US war against Iran while acknowledging that US soldiers in the region could get “hit” by Iranian counterattacks, a risk he said was worth it.“Could our soldiers be hit in the region? Absolutely, they could. Can Iran respond if we have an all-out attack? Absolutely, they can,” Graham said during a press briefing at the David Kempinski hotel in Tel Aviv.The South Carolina senator also said that the US decision on potential military action against Iran is “weeks” away, not months, and described Israel as the place where “the wars of the future are being planned.”All signs indicate that if the US bombs Iran, Tehran will not hold back in its response or provide the US with a warning ahead of time as it did before launching retaliatory missile strikes on the US’s Al Udeid airbase in Qatar following the US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. Many US bases and warships are in range of Iranian missiles, leaving open the possibility of thousands of US casualties if Iran goes all-out with its response. “I think the risk associated with that is far less than the risk associated with blinking and pulling the plug and not helping the people as you promised. We told him to go back in the street, keep protesting, help was on the way. We have to be good to our word,” Graham said, referring to President Trump’s threats to bomb Iran amid recent major protests in the country.

USS Gerald Ford Crossing the Atlantic Ocean as US Continues Major Mideast Buildup to Prepare for Attack on Iran - The aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford and its strike group are crossing the Atlantic Ocean and heading toward the Middle East, a US Navy official told USNI News on Tuesday, as the US continues its massive military buildup in the region to prepare for a potential attack on Iran.The Ford left the Caribbean after operating in the waters for several months as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” the US military operation that has involved airstrikes on alleged drug-running boats and the US attack on Venezuela to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro.The Ford will be the second US aircraft carrier entering US Central Command’s area of responsibility, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been operating in the Arabian Sea. If the Ford is deployed through mid-April, it will break the post-Vietnam War 294-day record for US carrier deployments.The US has also positioned additional fighter jets at its bases in the region, moving 50 F-35, F-22, and F-16 jets to the Middle East just over the past 24 hours, according to a US official speaking toAxios. More than 150 US military cargo aircraft have flown to the region since last month as the US is beefing up its air defenses to prepare for Iranian counterattacks, which could cause significant US casualties if Tehran doesn’t hold back in its response.The US has continued its military buildup in the region despite renewed negotiations with Iran, which were held in Geneva on Tuesday. The talks ended without a breakthrough, and while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was a “clear path” to a deal, US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran wasn’t acknowledging President Trump’s “red lines.”Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the White House has given Israel the impression that the talks with Iran have reached an end and that Israeli officials are convinced Trump will launch an attack on the Islamic Republic. The report said the US sought to create the impression that it had exhausted negotiations to “legitimize” a potential US attack.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Says Ball Is in US Court To Reach a Deal - Iran’s deputy foreign minister said in an interview published on Sunday that Tehran is ready to make compromises to reach a nuclear deal with Washington, but that any agreement hinged on whether the US is serious.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that the ball was “in America’s court to prove that they want to do a deal … If they are sincere, I’m sure we will be on the road to an agreement.”A second round of talks between US and Iranian officials is set to be held in Geneva this Tuesday, though the diplomacy doesn’t mean a US attack is not coming, as the two sides were engaged in nuclear negotiations in the lead-up to the 12-Day War in June 2025.According to Takht-Ravanchi, the US has indicated it is dropping its demands for any deal to include limits on Tehran’s ballistic missiles and a commitment to zero nuclear enrichment, although President Trump has said publicly that any agreement must include those two conditions.“Our understanding is that they have come to the conclusion that if you want to have a deal, you have to focus on the nuclear issue,” the Iranian official said, adding that the “issue of zero enrichment is not an issue anymore, and as far as Iran is concerned, it is not on the table anymore.”The issue of including missiles and a commitment to zero uranium enrichment reflects Israel’s demands, which also include Iran cutting support for its allies in the region, and are likely designed to collapse diplomacy and ensure war.Takht-Ravanchi explained why Iran wouldn’t negotiate its missiles, which are the country’s only form of deterrence and way to respond to US or Israeli attacks. “When we were attacked by Israelis and Americans, our missiles came to our rescue, so how can we accept depriving ourselves of our defensive capabilities?” he said.Iranian officials have said that they are willing to dilute Iran’s stockpile of uranium that’s enriched at the 60% level as part of a deal with the US, an offer Takht-Ravanchi pointed to. “We are ready to discuss this and other issues related to our programme if they are ready to talk about sanctions,” he said.

After Talks With the US in Geneva, Iran's Foreign Minister Says There's a 'Clear Path' to a Deal - Following indirect talks with US officials in Geneva on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was a “clear path” to a deal, though he stressed that an agreement wasn’t imminent and that more work needed to be done.Araghchi told reporters that “good progress” was made and that the US was more “serious” this time than in the previous round of negotiations in Oman. “Finally, we were able to reach an agreement on a set of guiding principles based on which we will move forward and discuss the text of a potential deal,” he said. US Vice President JD Vance later threw cold water on the idea that a deal could be reached soon, saying, “In some ways, it went well. They agreed to meet afterward. But in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.” Iranian officials have previously said that the US dropped its demands for a deal to include zero nuclear enrichment and restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missiles, conditions sought by Israel that are designed to collapse diplomacy and ensure war. But US officials, including President Trump, continue to mention the demands when discussing what they want a deal to include. Araghchi added that the two sides would work on the text of a potential agreement and exchange it before holding another round of negotiations. The US side was led by US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, who have not yet made public comments on the negotiations. An unnamed US official told Axios that the talks “made progress” but “there are still a lot of details to discuss.” The US is also continuing its massive military buildup in the region, with a second aircraft carrier on its way and the US military deploying 50 F-35, F-22, and F-16 fighter jets to the Middle East over the past 24 hours, according to the Axios report. Despite the negotiations, the threat of a US attack remains since during the lead-up to the 12-day US-Israeli war on Iran that was launched in June 2025, the US and Iran were engaged in nuclear talks, and President Trump claimed he was committed to that diplomacy as Israeli jets were getting in the air to launch the first strikes on the Islamic Republic.

Report: Trump Close To a Major Attack on Iran That Will Be Bigger Than 12-Day War - The Trump administration is close to launching a major attack on Iran as it continues a massive buildup of military forces in the Middle East, according to a report from Axios reporter Barak Ravid.Sources told Ravid that the potential US attack on Iran would likely be a massive multi-week operation, much bigger than the US operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. They said it would also be much broader in scope than the 12-day US-Israeli war on Iran that was launched in June 2025. Reuters also recently reported that the US was preparing for a sustained, multi-week attack on Iran.Israeli officials said that the Israeli government, which is pushing for the US to pursue regime change in Iran, is preparing for the possibility of the attack starting in the coming days, and CNNlater reported that the US military is ready to start the war as soon as this weekend. Other sources put the timeline a little later, saying the war would likely start in a few weeks.“The boss is getting fed up,” a Trump adviser told Ravid. “Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”The Axios report noted that there has been little public debate about the potential war amid the major US military buildup and said that Americans will likely be surprised by the scale of the coming attack.All signs indicate that if the US bombs Iran, Tehran will not hold back in its response and could target multiple US bases and warships in the region, leaving open the possibility that the war could result in hundreds or thousands of US casualties. The conflict could also have a major impact on the global economy, as Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 31% of seaborne crude oil shipments passed in 2025.The US and Iran held talks on Tuesday, and while the Iranian side said there was a “clear path” toward a deal, US Vice President JD Vance said that Iran was not acknowledging President Trump’s “red lines.”Vance claimed the main US demand was that Iran must not pursue a nuclear weapon, but for many months, the administration had insisted the June 2025 US strikes on Iran “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, and there’s no sign Tehran can enrich uranium at the moment. Iran has also made clear it’s willing to enter a deal that would involve a commitment to low enrichment levels, and Iranian officials maintain they don’t seek a nuclear bomb.

White House Claims There Are 'Many Reasons' to Strike Iran, Doesn't Elaborate Further -As a US attack on Iran appears increasingly likely, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed on Wednesday that there are “many reasons” for the US to bomb the country, but declined to elaborate further, as the administration hasn’t given a coherent reason for the potential war. Leavitt made the comments when asked why a potential attack on Iran was necessary after President Trump insisted for months that the US airstrikes launched against Iran during the 12-Day War in June 2025 “obliterated” the country’s nuclear facilities. “Well, there are many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran,” Leavitt said. “The president had a very successful operation as commander-in-chief with Operation Midnight Hammer. As you know, as you just said, totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Leavitt was then asked whether the president felt the need to make the case for war to the American people, potentially in his upcoming State of the Union address, but she declined to answer, saying she wouldn’t “engage in a hypothetical.” Vice President JD Vance has claimed the US’s main demand of Iran is that it must not pursue nuclear weapons, but there’s no sign Tehran is able to enrich uranium following the US strikes on its nuclear facilities, and Iranian officials have been clear that they would agree to a deal where they would commit to enrichment levels far beyond the 90% needed for a weapon, a level they’ve never even attempted. In recent weeks and months, President Trump has frequently threatened to bomb Iran or back an Israeli attack on the country and has repeatedly shifted the pretext. Back in December, he said he would back an Israeli attack if Iran “continued” its conventional missile program, then in January, he repeatedly threatened to attack over the protests in the country, and now appears to be back to the nuclear issue.

Trump Says 'War Is Over' in Gaza Despite Israel Killing Over 600 Palestinians Since Ceasefire Deal Was Signed - President Trump claimed at his first “Board of Peace” meeting on Thursday that the “war in Gaza is over” despite Israel’s repeated violations of the ceasefire deal, which have killed more than 600 Palestinians. While declaring the conflict is over, Trump added that there have been “little flames,” an apparent acknowledgement of at least some ceasefire violations. Israeli attacks in Gaza continued as he held the meeting. The mother of the deceased, Abdul Hamid al-Farra, and his relatives bid a final farewell to his body at the morgue of Nasser Medical Complex, after he was killed by Israeli army fire in the al-Tahliya area, east of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, on February 19, 2026 (IMAGO/APAimages via Reuters Connect)Israeli airstrikes and shelling were reported across Gaza on Thursday, and at least one Palestinian was injured by Israeli gunfire in the southern city of Khan Younis. Photos from Gaza show Palestinians at the Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis on Thursday mourning a man who was killed by Israeli fire in the area.Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Thursday that at least two Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces over the previous 24-hour period, bringing the total number of Palestinians killed since the deal was signed in early October to 611. Another 1,630 Palestinians have been injured.The Health Ministry’s numbers account for dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and in the streets, as ambulance and civil defense crews have been unable to reach them so far,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.

US Plans To Build a 5,000-Person Military Base in Gaza for International Force - The Trump administration is planning to build a 5,000-person military base inside Gaza, theGuardian reported on Thursday, citing contracting records from the so-called “Board of Peace.”The report said that the base would take up more than 350 acres of land in southern Gaza and is envisioned as a future base for the international force that may deploy to the Strip under President Trump’s plan for the Palestinian territory, though so far, only Indonesia has announced plans to commit troops to the force.The Guardian said that the plans it reviewed “call for the phased construction of a military outpost that will eventually have a footprint of 1,400 metres by 1,100 metres, ringed by 26 trailer-mounted armored watch towers, a small arms range, bunkers, and a warehouse for military equipment for operations. The entire base will be encircled with barbed wire.” The contracting document includes protocol for what happens if construction teams come across human remains, since the bodies of at least 8,000 Palestinians are missing under the rubble. “If suspected human remains or cultural artifacts are discovered, all work in the immediate area must cease immediately, the area must be secured, and the Contracting Officer must be notified immediately for direction,” the document says. It’s unclear how much the base would cost to build, but earlier reports suggested the US was planning to construct a major military facility on the Gaza border at a cost of between $500 millionand $600 million.

President Trump Threatens War With Iran at His First 'Board of Peace' Meeting - President Trump on Thursday convened the first meeting of his so-called “Board of Peace,” a body he formed to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, which Israel continues to violate, and appeared to threaten that a US attack on Iran could come within 10 days. In a speech at the meeting, Trump referenced his June 2025 attack on Iran, which targeted the country’s nuclear facilities. “Now, we may have to take it a step further — or we may not. Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next, probably 10 days,” he said. Trump also said that Iran “must make a deal. If that doesn’t happen… bad things will happen.”The US president convened the “Board of Peace” while overseeing what The Wall Street Journal has described as the largest gathering of US airpower in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US has sent a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and deployed dozens of additional fighter jets there in recent days.While Trump claims Iran has the opportunity to “make a deal” with the US, it’s unclear what sort of agreement he would accept, and his administration hasn’t made a coherent case for why it needs to attack the country.In his remarks on Thursday, Trump said Iran cannot have a “nuclear weapon,” but for months, he insisted the US airstrikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, and there’s no sign Tehran is even capable of enriching uranium at the moment. According to The New York Times, Iran has suggested it’s willing to suspend nuclear enrichment for three to five years, and then enter a regional consortium to enrich civilian-grade uranium, an arrangement that would give Tehran no path to a nuclear weapon. The US’s real goal with Iran is likely either regime change or removing Iran’s ability to strike Israel. Israeli officials have demanded that any deal must include restrictions on Iran’s missiles, a condition Tehran would never accept since its missiles are its only form of deterrence and way to launch counterattacks if it’s bombed by the US or Israel.

Report: Starmer Blocking Trump From Using UK Bases To Attack Iran - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is blocking President Trump from using British Royal Air Force (RAF) bases to launch an attack on Iran, The Telegraph reported on Thursday. The report said that the British government has yet to give consent for the US to use bases in the UK for bombing runs against Iran because of concerns that the attack could breach international law, the same conclusion London reached before the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-Day War back in June 2025. The UK’s position is what likely led to President Trump’s post on Truth Social, in which he again flipped on Starmer’s Chagos Islands deal, under which the UK will hand control of the islands, home to the US military base at Diego Garcia, to Mauritius. Under the agreement, the US and UK will lease the base from Mauritius for 99 years. “I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that is ‘claiming’ Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located in the Indian Ocean,” Trump said. The US president suggested that Diego Garcia and an RAF airbase in Fairford, England, that houses US Air Force personnel, could potentially be used in a war with Iran. “Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries,” he added. The US is required to notify the UK of its operations involving Diego Garcia, but doesn’t need London’s permission to carry them out. The base in Fairford is another story, as the US would need the OK of the British government to launch a long-range bombing attack from the facility.

Trump Says He Is 'Considering' Limited Strike On Iran To Pressure It Into Deal - US President Donald Trump said he was considering a limited strike on Iran after ordering a major naval buildup in the Middle East aimed at heaping pressure on Tehran to cut a deal to curb its nuclear programme. The latest threat came after Iran's foreign minister said a draft proposal for an agreement with Washington would be ready in a matter of days following negotiations between the two sides in Geneva earlier this week. Trump had suggesting on Thursday that "bad things" would happen if Tehran did not strike a deal within 10 days, which he subsequently extended to 15. Asked by a reporter on Friday whether he was contemplating a limited military strike, Trump answered: "The most I can say -- I am considering it." After the talks in Geneva, Tehran said the two sides had agreed to submit drafts of a potential agreement, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told US media would be the "next step". "I believe that in the next two, three days, that would be ready, and after final confirmation by my superiors, that would be handed over to Steve Witkoff," he said, referring to Trump's main Middle East negotiator. Araghchi also said US negotiators had not requested that Tehran end its nuclear enrichment programme, contradicting statements from American officials. "We have not offered any suspension, and the US side has not asked for zero enrichment," he said in an interview released Friday by US TV network MS NOW. "What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran's nuclear programme, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever," he added. His comments stand in contrast to information relayed by high-ranking US officials, including Trump, who has repeatedly said Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium at any level. Western countries accuse the Islamic republic of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies, though it insists on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes. Iran, for its part, is seeking to negotiate an end to sanctions that have proven to be a massive drag on its economy. Economic hardships sparked protests in December that evolved into a nationwide anti-government movement last month, prompting a crackdown from authorities that left thousands dead, rights groups say. The two foes held an initial round of discussions on February 6 in Oman, the first since previous talks collapsed during the 12-day Iran-Israel war last June, which the US joined by striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Washington has pursued a major military build-up in the region in tandem with the talks, and both sides have traded threats of military action for weeks. On Thursday, Trump again suggested the US would attack Iran if it did not make a deal within the timeframe he laid out. "We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen," Trump told the inaugural meeting of the "Board of Peace", his initiative for the post-war Gaza Strip. Iran's ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, warned that US bases, facilities and assets would be "legitimate targets" if the United States followed through on its threats. Araghchi, however, insisted that "there is no ultimatum". "We only talk with each other how we can have a fast deal. And a fast deal is something that both sides are interested about," he said. "We are under sanctions, (so) obviously any day that sanctions are terminated sooner it would be better for us," he said, adding Iran had "no reason to delay". Washington has repeatedly called for zero enrichment, but has also sought to address Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for militant groups in the region -- issues which Israel has pushed to include in the talks. The Israeli army said Friday that it was on "defensive alert" regarding the situation with Iran, but that its guidelines for the public remained unchanged. Ratcheting up the pressure, Trump has deployed a significant naval force to the region. After sending the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and escort battleships to the Gulf in January, he ordered a second carrier, the Gerald Ford, to depart for the Middle East. Iranian naval forces also conducted military drills this week in the Gulf and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz in their own show of force.

Satellite images show Iran repairing and fortifying sites amid US tensions (Reuters) - Satellite images show that Iran has recently built a concrete shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, experts say, advancing work at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024 amid tensions with the U.S. Images also show that Iran has buried tunnel entrances at a nuclear site bombed by the U.S. during Israel's 12-day war with Iran last year, fortified tunnel entrances near another, and has repaired missile bases struck in the conflict. They offer a glimpse of Iranian activities at some of the sites at the centre of tensions with Israel and the U.S., as Washington seeks to negotiate a deal with Tehran on its nuclear programme while threatening military action if talks fail. A combination picture of satellite images show the Parchin military complex before the Israeli strikes of October, 2024, in this image dated October 20, 2024, (top row 1st), the Parchin... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more Some 30 km (20 miles) southeast of Tehran, the Parchin complex is one of Iran's most sensitive military sites. Western intelligence has suggested Tehran carried out tests relevant to nuclear bomb detonations there more than two decades ago. Iran has always denied seeking atomic weapons. Israel reportedly struck Parchin in October 2024. Satellite imagery taken before and after that attack shows extensive damage to a rectangular building at Parchin, and apparent reconstruction in images from November 6, 2024. Imagery from October 12, 2025 shows development at the site, with the skeleton of a new structure visible and two smaller structures adjacent to it. Progress is apparent in imagery from November 14, with what appears to be a metallic roof covering the large structure. But imagery from December 13 shows the facility partly covered. By February 16, it cannot be seen at all, hidden by what experts say is a concrete structure. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), in a January 22 analysis of satellite imagery, pointed to progress in the construction of a "concrete sarcophagus" around a newly built facility at the site, which it identified as Taleghan 2. ISIS reported in November that imagery showed "ongoing construction and the presence of what appears to resemble a long, cylindrical chamber, maybe a high-explosives containment vessel, likely measuring approximately 36 meters long and 12 meters in diameter placed inside a building". "High-explosive containment vessels are critical to the development of nuclear weapons," ISIS added, "but can also be used in many other conventional weapons development processes." William Goodhind, a forensic imagery analyst with Contested Ground, said the roof had a similar hue to the surrounding area, adding: "It has most likely been covered with dirt to obscure the concrete colour." ISIS founder David Albright wrote on X: "Stalling the negotiations has its benefits: Over the last two to three weeks, Iran has been busy burying the new Taleghan 2 facility ... More soil is available and the facility may soon become a fully unrecognizable bunker, providing significant protection from aerial strikes." The Isfahan complex is one of three Iranian uranium-enrichment plants bombed by the United States in June. In addition to facilities that are part of the nuclear fuel cycle, Isfahan includes an underground area where diplomats say much of Iran's enriched uranium has been stored. Satellite images taken in late January showed new efforts to bury two tunnel entrances at the complex, ISIS reported on January 29. In a February 9 update, ISIS said a third entrance had also been backfilled with soil, meaning all entrances to the tunnel complex were now "completely buried". A February 10 image shows all three tunnels buried, Goodhind said. ISIS reported on February 9 that "backfilling the tunnel entrances would help dampen any potential airstrike and also make ground access in a special forces raid to seize or destroy any highly enriched uranium that may be housed inside difficult". ISIS has reported that satellite images point to ongoing efforts since February 10 to "harden and defensively strengthen" two entrances to a tunnel complex under a mountain some 2 km (1.2 miles) from Natanz - the site that holds Iran's other two uranium enrichment plants. Imagery shows "ongoing activity throughout the complex related to this effort, involving the movement of numerous vehicles, including dump trucks, cement mixers, and other heavy equipment", ISIS wrote. Iran's plans for the facility, called Pickaxe Mountain, are unclear, ISIS said.

U.S.-Iran Tensions Threaten to Send Oil Tanker Rates Soaring - The ratcheting up of tensions between the United States and Iran could push an already red-hot supertanker market even higher with rates soaring to the highest level since 2019, analysts say. The daily rate for hiring a supertanker on the key Middle East-to-China route has surged threefold since the beginning of the year, to over $150,000. That’s the highest since 2020, per data from the Baltic Exchange cited by Bloomberg. The rally in freight rates for the very large crude carriers (VLCC) capable of carrying around 2 million barrels of crude began at the end of 2025 on the back of growing oil supply, longer voyages, and disruptions due to sanctions and altered shipping lanes. Following a brief respite in January, the tanker rates have rebounded this month to the highest since 2020 as the market became aware of a major vessel buying spree from South Korea’s Sinokor shipping group, which is now estimated to control about a fourth of all available non-sanctioned tankers. “VLCC rates continue to go from strength to strength,” upwards to the mid $150,000 per day for eastbound cargoes from the Middle East, shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report to February 18. “2026 is the year of the horse – and it is galloping at full speed as far as the tanker market goes,” said Fearnleys, which sees “Very few clouds on the sky short term with Sinokor now controlling about 25% of the compliant fleet, leaving charterers with very slim pickings for alternatives.” Fears of a potential U.S. military campaignin Iran that could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates, the shipbroker noted. “We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday, referring to Iran. “Military action in the Middle East will likely take VLCC rates to levels not seen since 2019,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told Bloomberg on Friday.

Indonesia Prepares 1,000 Troops To Be Deployed to Gaza by April for Potential International Force - Indonesia is preparing 1,000 troops to deploy to Gaza as part of a potential peacekeeping force by April, a spokesman for the country’s military told Reuters.Indonesia has said it could potentially deploy a total of 8,000 troops to the besieged Palestinian territory, and the spokesman said the full force will be ready by June.“The departure schedule remains entirely subject to the political decisions of the state and applicable international mechanisms,” spokesman Donny Pramono told the outlet.Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Washington this week to attend the first meeting of President Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace,” a US-led body meant to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, which Israel has constantly violated by killing more than 600 Palestinians in the Strip since the deal was signed.Under Trump’s plan for Gaza, an “International Stabilization Force” is supposed to deploy to replace Israeli troops, who currently occupy more than 50% of the Strip. The US was initially planning for the ISF to deploy to Gaza much earlier, but the force didn’t materialize over concerns from countries initially willing to participate that their troops might end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel. According to Middle East Eye, the Indonesian Foreign Ministry said in a statement over the weekend that its troops deploying to Gaza will have a non-combat role and will not have a mandate to disarm any group. “Indonesian troops will not be involved in combat operations or any action leading to direct confrontation with any armed group,” the ministry said. However, under the UN Security Council that endorsed Trump’s peace plan, which essentially places Gaza under US control, the ISF is mandated to ensure “the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip” and “the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups.” The Indonesian Foreign Ministry also said that its involvement in Gaza doesn’t mean it’s normalizing relations with Israel and condemned the idea of the forced displacement of Palestinians. “Indonesia consistently rejects all attempts at demographic change or the forced displacement or relocation of the Palestinian people in any form,” it said. The Indonesian government has faced pushback from its own people, with protesters in Jakarta accusing Subianto of “serving Israel’s goals” by joining the Board of Peace amid constant Israeli ceasefire violations.

Israeli Attacks Kill at Least 12 Palestinians in Gaza - Israeli forces killed at least 12 Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, according to the enclave’s rescue agency, as the IDF continues killing Palestinians in the Strip despite the US-backed ceasefire deal.Gaza’s Civil Defense said that one Israeli strike hit a tent sheltering displaced Palestinians in Jabalia, northern Gaza, killing at least five people. Another person was killed by Israeli army gunfire in Beit Lahia, and a separate strike hit Khan Younis, southern Gaza, killing five.The heavy Israeli attacks came after the IDF on Saturday said that it killed five “armed terrorists” in northern Gaza who emerged from a tunnel as IDF forces were demolishing buildings in the area.The IDF claimed the presence of allegedly armed Palestinian militants violated the ceasefire deal, though the Palestinian side argues that the continued IDF demolitions are a violation of the deal since the agreement calls for the halt of “all military operations” in Gaza.The Israeli military has also been launching daily attacks across Gaza, killing at least 601 Palestinians and wounding 1,607 since the ceasefire deal was signed, according to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, which account for bodies brought to hospitals and morgues.“A number of victims are still under the rubble and in the streets, as ambulance and civil defense crews have been unable to reach them so far,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.

US Says 15,000 to 20,000 Escapees Remain at Large From Syrian ISIS Camp Exodus - This time last month, the Syrian military was sweeping through Kurdish territory in the country’s northeast Hasakeh Governorate, and having seized control of the al-Hawl prison camp, there were reports of thousands of ISIS-linked detainees being freed by the Islamist government’s forces.The government downplayed this issue, blaming the escapes on Kurdish security weakness, andclaimed to have recaptured them almost immediately. US intelligence assessments, however, suggest that wasn’t the case, and that 15,000 to as many as 20,000 escapees from Camp Hawl remain at large.The camp was one of several that, after the defeat of ISIS, was being used as a more or less permanent holding facility for people with any ties for the former Caliphate. Massive numbers of non-fighters were being held on a permanent basis, including those suspected of being family members of ISIS figures. Estimates put the number of detainees at Camp Hawl as high as 70,000 at one point, and the population of the prison included many young children, some of whom were born after the camp itself was established. With the fall of autonomous Syrian Kurdistan, the US announced it was sending several thousand of the detainees to neighboring Iraq for safekeeping.There was never any sort of real resolution to this, however. The US did send thousands of detainees to Iraq, but many, many more simply went missing in the chaos of the Hasakeh offensive and prison takeover, and where they are now remains unclear.The nature of these open-ended prison camp cities means many people who didn’t really have a violent background or a substantial criminal history were likely radicalized by the camp environment and the concern is that now that they are out of custody, many will willingly join ISIS.While ISIS isn’t believed to hold a substantial amount of territory anymore, and are far removed from their Caliphate days when they held substantial parts of Syria and Iraq, the group has retained a capability to carry out attacks and with a massive influx of fighters like this could be poised for a resurgence.