US oil prices finished lower for the first time in seven weeks, as traders hoped talks between the US and Iran would reduce the threat to Persian Gulf oil supplies….after rising 6.8% to $65.21 a barrel last week after it was reported that 15% of our domestic oil production and Gulf Coast refining capacity was knocked out by a winter storm, and after Trump escalated his saber rattling against Iran, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery fell below $63 in early Asian trading on Monday after U.S. President Trump expressed hope that an agreement could be reached with Iran, easing concerns over an outbreak of armed conflict between the two countries in the oil-rich region, and was down by as much as 5.5% on global markets as traders also reacted to an announcement by OPEC+ to maintain its pause on oil output increases for March, and continued to sell off sharply during the US session after Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a de-escalation of tensions, and settled down $3.07 or 4.7% at $62.14 a barrel as a stronger dollar and milder weather forecasts also pressured prices…...oil prices fell towards $61.60 per barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday, amidst easing geopolitical tensions and signs of an oversupplied market, after OPEC+ reiterated its commitment to keeping output steady through March, but steadied by midday on global markets as traders considered the global supply outlook and the possibility of a de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, then edged higher early in the US session after OPEC revealed that Iraq, Kazakhstan, Oman and the UAE agreed to increase their voluntary production cuts in the months ahead to compensate for past overproduction, and continued to retrace some of Monday’s sharp losses as the market weighed the possibility of a de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions against the expectation that India would cut its purchases of Russian crude oil under a new trade deal with the US, then rallied 2% to a high of $63.74 in afternoon trading before settling $1.07 higher at $63.21 a barrel after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, and armed boats approached a U.S.-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns that talks aimed at de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could be disrupted…oil prices rose in Asia on Wednesday in a reaction to the Iranian drone being shot down by a US fighter jet, and to an American Petroleum Institute report of the largest weekly decline in US oil inventories since last summer, then climbed about 3% on a report that the U.S. would not agree to change the location and format of talks with Iran planned for Friday, only to fade after Arab and Muslim leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away from the Iran talks, but still settled $1.93 or 3% higher at $65.14 a barrel after Trump warned that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "should be very worried."….however, oil prices fell 2% in Asia on Thursday after the United States and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns over a potential military conflict that would disrupt supplies from the key oil-producing region, and were down more than 3% on global markets as traders reassessed the likelihood of escalation versus diplomacy, and held that 3% loss in early New York trading as optimism that U.S.-Iran talks would avert war between the two sides scaled down risks to Middle Eastern energy supplies, and settled $1.85 lower at $63.29 a barrel on easing concerns about Persian Gulf supplies ahead of talks between the US and Iran….oil prices held steady in early Asian trading on Friday as traders waited for news from the high-stakes talks between the United States and Iran in Oman, amid fears of another supply-disrupting Middle East conflict, and rose as Tehran signaled that the negotiations will likely be a long process, dashing hopes of a quick and more sustainable de-escalation of tensions in the key oil-producing Middle Eastern region, then fell on global markets after Iranian state TV reported in late afternoon that the day’s talks had ended and Iran's foreign minister said negotiators would return to their capitals for consultations, and that the talks would continue, but reversed early losses in New York and settled 26 cents higher at $63.55 a barrel, as traders worried that this week's talks between the U.S. and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries, still leaving prices 2.5% lower for the week…
at the same time, natural gas prices finished lower for the first time in three weeks, as forecasts showed the arctic cold would withdraw from the lower 48 by next week, and the prior week's record withdrawal from storage was less than expected…after rising 20.6% to $4.354 per mmBTU last week after a winter storm shut down US LNG exports and froze off more than 15% of US natural gas production, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for March delivery opened 81.7 cents lower on Monday after weather models shed notable heating demand forecasts for the coming week, and settled $1.117 or nearly 26% lower at $3.237 per mmBTU, on forecasts for a big change in the weather from Arctic cold last week to near-normal levels through mid-February, and traders took profits and reassessed their seasonal inventory outlooks…natural gas prices started Tuesday a penny higher as traders awaited the next market catalyst, and climbed 7.4 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $3.311 per mmBTU on a small decline in output, increased gas flows to LNG export plants, and forecasts for more demand this week than was previously expected…natural gas opened 9.8 cents higher on Wednesday and rose to an intraday high of $3.548 by 9:25AM, on bargain-buying and positioning ahead of what was expected to be an historic storage report, and held part of that initial jump to settle 15.4 cents higher at $3.465 per mmBTU, as analysts expected Thursday’s EIA storage report to reveal a record withdrawal following the late-January storm…natural gas opened 6.7 cents higher on Thursday and hovered near $3.510 ahead the report, then pulled back when the report fell short of expectations to record an intraday low of $3.328 at 11:15 AM, but bounced back to settle 4.4 cents higher at $3.509 per mmBTU as bullish midday forecasts helped the March contract claw back from the intraday low to flat before midday….natural gas futures moved higher early Friday, as traders weighed the largest-ever storage draw and rising LNG estimates against stronger production and moderating weather, and held onto those early gains through midday, as forecasts called for another round of cold that was expected to drive demand and push inventories still lower, following the historic withdrawal reported Thursday, but lost ground in afternoon trading to settle 8.7 cents lower at $3.422 per mmBTU, even as a bitter cold snap enveloped the Northeast, as the two-week forecasts offered little bullish support, leaving the price of the March contract 21.4% lower for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 30th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 360 billion cubic feet, or by 12.8%, to 2,463 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the largest one week drop on record, which left our natural gas supplies 41 billion cubic feet, or 1.7% higher than the 2,422 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 30th of last year, while 27 billion cubic feet, or 1.1% lower than the five-year average of 2,490 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 30th of January over the most recent five years….the 360 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 375 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, but was quite a bit more than the 195 billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also much more than the average 190 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late January week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 30th indicated that even after a sizable increase in our imports and a sizable decrease in our exports, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the 17th time in thirty-six weeks, and for the 45th time in eighty*one weeks, largely due to a drop in production and an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 558,000 barrels per day to 5,642,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 804,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 542,000 barrels per day to average 4,047,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,154,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 30th, an average of 1,100,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 32,000 barrels per day higher at 783,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 481,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 13,215,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,152,000 barrels per day during the January 30th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,029,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 30th, an average of 180,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 463,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending January 30th averaged a rounded 586,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -586,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…moreover, since 455,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was rounded 1,040,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore completely useless.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).
This week’s rounded 463,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 494,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 31,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,345,000 barrels per day last week, which was 3.2% less than the 6,558,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 481,000 barrels per day lower at 13,215,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 482,000 barrels per day lower at 12,784,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 431,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was still 0.9% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 36.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 90.5% of their capacity while processing those 16,029,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 30th, down from the 93.3% utilization rate of the week ending January 16th, with lower utilization levels of the past two weeks reflecting impacts of sub zero temperatures on refinery operations, as well as partial shutdowns as refineries start to change over to producing Spring blends of fuel….the 16,029,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was 4.4% more than the 15,349,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the cold-impacted week ending January 31st of 2025, and 0.4% more than the 15,972,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 31st, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.4%, which was on the low side of the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 565,000 barrels per day to 9,009,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 30th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 791,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 1.7% less than the 9,166,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending January 31st of last year, and also 9.0% less than the gasoline production of 9,903,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending January 31st, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased 5,000 barrels per day to 4,814,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 268,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after those production decreases, our distillates output was still 5.8% more than the 4,552,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 31st of 2024, but 3.3% less than the 4,976,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 31st, 2020....
Even after this week’s big decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the twelfth consecutive week, increasing by 685,000 barrels to a 71 month high of 257,898,000 barrels during the week ending January 30th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 223,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased by more this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 604,000 barrels per day to 8,153,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 30,000 barrels per day to 394,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 95,000 barrels per day to 958,000 barrels per day … In spite of thirty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-two weeks, the recent surge of additions meant our gasoline supplies were 2.7% higher than last January 31st’s gasoline inventories of 251,088,000 barrels, and about 4% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…
After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillate fell for the second time in twelve weeks and by the most since late February 2021, decreasing by 5,553,000 barrels to 127,368,000 barrels during the week ending January 30th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 329,000 barrels to a two year high during the prior week… Our distillates supplies fell sharply this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 241,000 barrels to 4,310,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 538,000 barrels per day to 1,494,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 56,000 barrels per day to 197,000 barrels per day, ... With 19 additions to distillates inventories over the past 30 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 7.5% higher than the 118,480,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 31st of 2025, but about 2% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the decrease in our oil production and the increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, decreasing by 3,455,000 barrels over the week, from 423,754,000 barrels on January 23rd to 420,299,000 barrels on January 30th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 2,295,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 4% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were 30.4% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the last weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this January 30th were 0.8% less than the 423,790,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 31st of 2025, and were 1.7% less than the 427,432,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on February 2nd of 2024, and 7.2% less than the 452,688,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on January 27th of 2023…
This Week's Rig Count
The US rig count was up by five over the week ending February 6th, the 15th increase in twenty-three weeks, as the number of rigs targeting natural gas was up by five and the count of rigs targeting oil was up by one, while miscellaneous rigs were down by one …for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 30th) and this week’s (February 6th) count, the third column shows last week’s January 30thactive rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 7th of February, 2025…
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Will-Power 3rd OH Facebook Gas-Fired Plant Begins Const. Any Time - Marcellus Drilling News - In December, MDN reported that pipeline giant Williams, through its new subsidiary, Will-Power, plans to build a third gas-fired power plant to power a Meta (Facebook) data center complex in Bowling Green, OH (see Will-Power to Build Third Facebook Gas-Fired Plant Near Toledo). The project will use 21 natural gas turbines, generators, and backup diesel generators for reliability. Will-Power aims to have 150 MW online by July 2027 and the full 350 MW by October 2027. Great news! The Ohio Power Siting Board (OPSB) has authorized the construction of the facility, which is likely to begin this week.
M-U Rig Count Stays @ 39 But PA & OH Swap 1 Rig; Nat’l Count @ 546 - The Marcellus/Utica rig count gained 1 rig eight weeks ago in the Ohio Utica, bringing the regional total to 39 rigs. The combined number of 39 remained the same last week, however, there was an important change. The Pennsylvania Marcellus picked up one rig last week, while the Ohio Utica lost a rig. PA is now operating 19 rigs, OH is operating 13 rigs, and WV maintains its 7 rigs, which it has operated since May of last year. There were 25 rigs targeting the Marcellus and 14 targeting the Utica last week. The national count gained 2 rigs last week, bringing the national total to 546 active rigs.
Shell Weighs PA Cracker Plant Future as Chemical Losses Hit $66M -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, Shell’s chemical division reported a $66 million fourth-quarter loss, driven by weak margins and operational hurdles at its $14 billion Beaver County ethane cracker plant complex. Shell CEO Wael Sawan acknowledged the chemicals business is underperforming, making a turnaround a “top priority” for 2026. Although Shell is exploring a sale or joint venture for the Monaca facility due to its geographic isolation and high costs, no specific updates were shared during the latest earnings call.
PA EHB Denies CNX Motion to Dismiss Fracking Well Water Case -Marcellus Drilling News - On February 3, 2026, Pennsylvania’s Environmental Hearing Board (EHB) denied a motion by CNX to dismiss an appeal from James and Barbara Ullom regarding significant water loss on their Washington County property. The Ulloms allege that fracking operations at CNX’s NV110 well pad, located approximately 890 feet from their well, caused their water supply to fail (loss of water). Although the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) initially found no link, the EHB, a special court that hears appeals of DEP decisions, ruled that the Ulloms had established a prima facie case. A central legal issue remains: whether the Oil and Gas Act’s “rebuttable presumption” of liability applies to water loss or strictly to contamination.
MPLX Working on $450M Marcellus Gathering System Expansion - Marcellus Drilling News -- In 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged in the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, now plays on a much larger stage, owning and operating major assets in the Permian Basin, the Bakken Shale, and the Marcellus/Utica. However, the M-U still plays a starring role for the company. MPLX recently issued its fourth quarter 2025 update. Based on 4Q earnings materials, MPLX's operations in the Marcellus and Utica (Northeast) region are characterized by near-capacity utilization and significant ongoing infrastructure expansions.
Antis Ignore Huge Natural Methane Leaks to Focus on Tiny M-U Leaks - Marcellus Drilling News -- Anti-fossil fuelers, using one of their favorite mainstream media sources (the Financial Times of London), claim that satellite data revealed over 20 massive methane “super-emitter” plumes linked to EQT Corp. and Expand Energy in the Appalachian Basin between 2024 and 2025. These events, which exceed 100kg per hour, challenge the companies’ claims of low emission intensity and effective mitigation. EQT rightly disputes the findings. So-called environmental “experts” emphasize that actual emissions often surpass industry reports. The antis say that given methane’s potency in trapping heat, these recurring leaks from major U.S. producers underscore the urgent need for infrastructure upgrades and more transparent monitoring to meet global climate goals. The thing is, these same antis ignore 79% of global methane emissions (40% of which is natural, from the Earth itself) to focus on just 21% of the “problem,” illustrating the hypocrisy of the environmental left.
Propane Inventory Draw Meets Weak Exports and Storm Impacts - The EIA reported that total U.S. propane/propylene inventories posted a draw of 6.2 MMbbl for the week ended January 30, exceeding industry expectations for a 5.1 MMbbl decline and the average draw for the week of 3.5 MMbbl. Even after the draw, total U.S. propane/propylene stocks stood at 82.7 MMbbl, or 35% higher than the same week in 2025. Inventories also remained 20% above the five-year maximum and 40% above the five-year average, with inventories remaining elevated relative to historical levels.Weekly U.S. propane exports decreased by 178 Mb/d to 1.92 MMb/d, remaining below the four-week average of 1.97 MMb/d, the 2025 average of 1.95 MMb/d, and the 2.1 MMb/d reported in the year-ago week. Total U.S. propane/propylene production declined by 418 Mb/d from the prior week to 2.35 MMb/d due to winter storm-related disruptions, though the week-over-week decline was smaller than anticipated.
Frigid Weather Slashes Ethane Production -Again: Drives a 325 Mb/d Dip in 5 of the Past 6 Years -U.S. ethane production has been one of the fastest growing energy commodities, increasing from just over 1.0 MMb/d in 2015 to more than 3.0 MMb/d in 2025 (left graph below). But even with that astronomical growth, a seasonal pattern has emerged. For five of the past 6 winters, frigid winter weather has resulted in natural gas wellhead freeze-offs and other market disruptions, which has slashed ethane production – regular as clockwork (right graph below). It sometimes happens in December or February, but most often in January, as it has this year. According to RBN’s Natgas Billboard report, U.S. natural gas was curtailed about 15 Bcf/d during most of last week. Combined with opportunistic sales of ethane in the gas stream (incremental ethane rejection), we estimate that ethane production will be cut by about 300 Mb/d on average for January, with recovery expected in February – unless the market suffers another round of weather-related curtailments.
2nd Circuit Hears Arguments to Overturn NYC, NYS Ban on Gas Hookups - Marcellus Drilling News -- In January 2023, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a leftist Democrat, floated a plan to ban natural gas hookups in every single new home and business across the “Empire” State (seeNY Gov. Hochul Loses Her Mind – Wants to Ban Gas in New Buildings). She even wanted to ban gas in existing homes, but that was too much to stomach even for NY’s left-wing Democrats (see New York Legislators Block Hochul NatGas Ban for Existing Homes). As part of the 2023-2024 budget deal, Hochul got her statewide ban on new hookups (see NY State has Fallen – Gas Stoves & Peaker Plants Banned in Budget). So, beginning Jan. 1, 2026, new homes (or businesses) in New York State were scheduled to be banned from connecting to an existing natural gas pipeline system. Except Hochul backpeddled, using a lawsuit as an excuse to delay implementing the new law (see NY’s Jan. 1 Ban on New Gas Hookups Delayed by Lawsuit). The Second Circuit heard arguments in the case last Friday.
Record-High NatGas Withdrawals from Storage for Week Ending Jan 30 - Marcellus Drilling News - Winter Storm Fern left a historic chill on the energy market, driving natural gas stocks in the Lower 48 down by 360 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 30, 2026—the largest weekly withdrawal ever recorded in the history of the report. This massive dip, fueled by a “perfect storm” of surging heating demand and weather-related production freezes, exceeded the five-year average by a staggering 89% (170 Bcf) and pushed current inventories 1.1% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Arctic Blast Triggers Largest-Ever US Gas Storage Withdrawal - US natural gas consumers withdrew more gas from storage last week than they ever have before as a powerful late-January storm boosted demand for the heating fuel while also disrupting production across key gas-producing basins. Consumers withdrew 360 billion cubic feet of gas in the week leading up to Jan. 30, the largest weekly storage decline on record, according to an Energy Information Administration report released Thursday. Stockpiles totaled 2.463 trillion cubic feet in the same period, the report said. That’s 1.1% below the five-year average. By comparison, inventories were 5.3% higher than average a week earlier. Nearly half of US grid power is generated by natural gas, which means gas-fired power plant operators and other businesses withdraw more stored gas to meet heating demand when temperatures drop sharply. Severe winter weather during the last days of January choked off as much as 18% of US gas production as water froze in wellheads, causing pipeline “freeze-offs.” Frigid conditions over the same period pushed gas demand 25% higher than the average for the time of year, BloombergNEF data show. Anticipation of the cold blast also spurred the largest-ever weekly price increase for US gas futures, while prices for physical near-term delivery of gas at the US benchmark on Jan. 26 hit a record high. Wholesale gas prices in the US are strongly correlated with weather because of consumers’ reliance on gas furnaces and electric heat. Regional grids declared emergencies as the storm battered fuel supplies, triggering blackouts across the South and record power prices in the Northeast. Record gas prices forced some grids to switch from gas to burning dirtier, less efficient oil to keep the lights on.
Northeast Price Spike Draws LNG Flows Through Saint John Import Terminal -- As cold weather continues to impact supply and prices in the pipeline-constrainted in the Northeast, Canada’s Saint John LNG import terminal has seen a spike in volumes to help meet U.S. demand.Map showing Saint John LNG and nearby natural gas infrastructure in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States, including operational pipelines, LNG import and export facilities, NGI price index locations, and key hubs across New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Maine and Quebec. At A Glance:
Maritimes prices retreat from extremes
Zone 6 prices follow cooling trend
Foreign gas supports New England power
A Little Bit More – A Big Push Is On to Pipe More PADD 2 Refined Products East to PADD 1 - For the past several years, a potent combination of market developments has incentivized PADD 2/Midwest refiners — and their midstream partners — to move increasing volumes of gasoline and diesel east into Pennsylvania and other states in the Northeast. The limiting factors have been eastbound pipeline capacity and the concerns PADD 1/East Coast refiners have expressed to regulators about the potentially negative impacts of the shift in product flows. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what’s been happening lately on this front and how it’s affecting refiners. We’ll start with a brief, big-picture review of refining and refined-product flows in the Midwest and Northeast. Since 2000, there’s been a substantive buildup in refining capacity in PADD 2 — a 17% gain in overall capacity and a 33% increase in delayed coking capacity. This has been driven primarily by the growing availability of favorably priced heavy sour crude being piped in from Western Canada. The Midwest now has more than 4.2 MMb/d of refining capacity, including 1.5 MMb/d in the four PADD 2 states closest to PADD 1 (Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio), and produces more refined products than it consumes. Over the same 25-year period, refining capacity in the Northeast (almost all of it in Delaware, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania) has fallen by half, to about 800 Mb/d. Most of the decline in PADD 1 refining can be tied to economics — including the lack of pipeline access to U.S. shale oil — but part of it is due to events, such as the devastating June 2019 fire at Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ 330-Mb/d refinery in Philadelphia, which led the facility’s owner to shut it down. The fall-off in PADD 1 refining capacity has increased the Northeast’s reliance on gasoline and diesel that is shipped in from elsewhere — waterborne imports for sure, but also piped-in volumes from refineries in PADD 2 and PADD 3/Gulf Coast. While Gulf Coast refineries have provided the majority of these domestic movements, the economics of making refined products in the eastern Midwest and piping them east into PADD 1 are becoming more compelling.Over the past 15 years, several refineries in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio made significant investments in the delayed cokers and other equipment that enable them to break down price-discounted low-API, high-sulfur Canadian crude into valuable refined products. Much of the time, the cost of making those products and piping them east into the Northeast is lower than the cost PADD 1 refiners and other suppliers there can offer — sometimes considerably so, especially for gasoline. Also contributing to these economics is the trend toward an overall surplus of refined products in PADD 2 as in-region demand stagnates and refiners look to new markets. But while that “arb” encourages the eastbound movement of Midwest-sourced refined products into PADD 1, those flows are limited not just by the capacity of the eastbound pipes but also by how far east the flows can go. Next, we’ll discuss the pipelines that can transport refined products from refineries in the eastern Midwest to western Pennsylvania, and from there east across that state and beyond (see Figure 1 above). We’ll start with the Ohio and western Pennsylvania portions of the extensive Midwest pipeline network owned by MPLX, a master limited partnership formed by refiner Marathon Petroleum in 2012. As shown by the green lines, these include pipes to batch refined products to terminals as far east as Midland, PA — about 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh — and to pipelines owned by others. (Significant volumes are also barged up the Ohio River from Catlettsburg, KY, to the Pittsburgh market; see black barge icons in map.)Then there’s Buckeye Partners, which over the past 10-plus years has been expanding its refined-product pipeline network in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The company’s Michigan/Ohio Pipeline Expansion Project (MOPEP; orange line) — aka the Broadway Project — can now transport up to 80 Mb/d from Michigan and Ohio refineries to Coraopolis, PA (~10 miles northwest of Pittsburgh). From there, up to 40 Mb/d of refined products can flow as far east as the Altoona, PA, area, along the western part of Buckeye’s Laurel Pipeline (yellow line), which has been bidirectional between Coraopolis and Altoona since October 2019. (Laurel can also move as much as 120 Mb/d west on that bidirectional section.) But Buckeye is seeking to make an additional section of pipe east of Altoona bidirectional; more on that in a moment. In addition, Buckeye owns other refined product pipelines (red lines) in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey that are not part of the MOPEP/Broadway or Laurel systems.Next up is Energy Transfer (ET), whose 160-mile Allegheny Access pipeline (magenta line), a combination of existing and new pipes in Ohio and western Pennsylvania, has since 2015 enabled up to 85 Mb/d of PADD 2-sourced gasoline and diesel to flow east as far as Delmont, PA. In January 2022, ET completed the Pennsylvania Access project (PA Access; purple line), which involved the conversion of the section of the company’s Mariner East 1 ethane pipeline from Delmont, PA, to the Reading, PA, area to refined product service. The combination of Allegheny Access and PA Access allows refined products to flow east from PADD 2 refineries to other Northeast markets — including northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York — on ET’s legacy Sunoco Pipeline system (Legacy Line; blue line).As a group, the pipelines we discussed just above have provided refiners in the eastern Midwest with important new markets for their refined products, not just in Pennsylvania but in other parts of the Northeast. Figure 2 above shows the growth in pipeline flows of gasoline and diesel from PADD 2 to PADD 1 since 2010. As you can see, eastbound flows of diesel (blue line) from Ohio to Pennsylvania exceed 30 Mb/d, and flows of gasoline (orange line) aren’t far behind.As things stand now, a portion of the refined product flows into western Pennsylvania still gets only as far as the Pittsburgh market, much of the rest flows to the Altoona market in central Pennsylvania, and no more than 25 Mb/d — the current capacity of ET’s PA Access — moves east from there to Reading in Berks Countyand points beyond, perhaps via ET’s legacy pipelines.
Crews continue cleanup, containment of Wyoming County oil spill — Crews are working to clean up and contain an oil spill from an Appalachian Power substation in Wyoming County that was reported last week, state officials said. The spill was reported just after 8 a.m. Friday and containment measures were put in place immediately. The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection said it recovered approximately 10,000 gallons of oil-and-water mixture following the incident.A collection trench has been installed at the substation site preventing any further release of the oil into the watershed, a news release from WVDEP said Tuesday. Downstream, crews constructed underflow dams in Reedy Branch and deployed containment booms throughout the watershed, including Clear Fork, the Guyandotte River, and at the inlet of R.D. Bailey Lake. Officials said some material did enter Clear Fork before all containment measures were in place. As a result, localized pockets of material remain visible between containment structures, particularly near the Toler Farm Bridge area, the news release said. The agency has directed Appalachian Power, which is required to conduct the cleanup and remediation efforts, to deploy additional resources to expedite recovery in that location. Cleanup efforts are also focused on areas where potential material may be trapped in ice and debris, the news release said. Crews are working to access and remove those pockets ahead of expected thawing conditions, which could increase streamflow. As of Tuesday, WVDEP said it has not observed sheen or other material outside of Clear Fork. It also said there have been no signs of impacts to aquatic life of downstream water intakes. WVDEP said its staff has been onsite daily since the release, including overnight in some cases. Inspectors have established sampling locations and are routinely moving throughout the affected area to assess stream conditions, verify containment performance and oversee contractor activities as cleanup continues, the news release said. The spill is similar to one in Wayne County weeks earlier that has disrupted the town’s water system and left residents under a ‘do not consume’ order for more than two weeks. Flushing efforts andtesting continue in that case.
FERC Approves Williams Transco SESE Pipeline Project for VA, NC -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two pipeline kingpins are engaged in a deathmatch with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to get their competing pipeline projects approved. One is Williams’ Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE), the other is EQT’s MVP Southgate project (see Update on N.C. Pipe Deathmatch: Transco SESE vs. MVP Southgate). Both projects would be built in the same general area, starting near Chatham, Virginia, and ending near Eden, North Carolina. Both claim they have customers ready to take their gas. In a July 2025 FERC filing, Williams said that its project could easily handle Southgate MVP’s capacity by adding meter tubes and regulation at an existing station. EQT was not pleased with the attempt to undercut Southgate. However, MVP Southgate appeared to have the regulatory momentum when FERC approved a change in the project in December (see FERC Votes to Approve Change of MVP Southgate Route, Capacity). But now, the Williams SESE project has leapfrogged Southgate by garnering a final approval from FERC to build
Cleanup ongoing after 20K gallons of diesel spill in Spartanburg creek (WSPA) — Cleanup efforts are underway after an estimated 20,000 gallons of diesel fuel spilled into a Spartanburg creek, prompting environmental concerns and questions about how the incident happened. Kinder Morgan, the company responsible for the spill, said an alarm system alerted operators to a diesel release from one of its tanks around 10 p.m. on Sunday at its Products (SE) Pipe Line Corporation facility. The tank was shut down, stopping the leak, but fuel had already leaked into a catch basin and flowed into Four Mile Branch Creek. According to state officials, roughly 15,400 gallons had been recovered as of Tuesday. More than 50 people, including Kinder Morgan personnel and contractors, are working at the site using vacuum trucks, absorbent booms, and skimmers to remove diesel from the water. Crews are also collecting a diesel-water mixture, which is placed into temporary storage tanks to separate before proper disposal. “The company has activated its emergency response plans and mobilized its spill response contractors to assist with cleanup activities,” the company said in a statement. “All appropriate regulatory and emergency response authorities have been notified.” Agencies overseeing the response include the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, South Carolina Department of Environmental Services (SCDES), and the South Spartanburg Fire District. While the company said it does not expect impacts to wildlife or fisheries, environmental advocates say important questions remain unanswered. “The big question is to dial back and say, ‘Why did this happen, and what can we do to prevent it?’” said Frank Holleman, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center. “Another question is, are there smaller leaks that have been going on over time?” The spill comes just six years after Kinder Morgan settled a lawsuit with local nonprofit Upstate Forever following a nearly 400,000-gallon gasoline spill in Belton. Holleman explained that while companies often attempt to make amends after major spills, the long-term impacts can be harder to measure. “What are they going to do to improve the habitat, the health [and] the natural resources of that watershed in that creek in response to this pollution event?” he asked. He said one of the biggest long-term concerns is possible groundwater contamination, which could affect the area for years. “So many of our streams are struggling to hold on anyway,” Holleman shared. “When you have a major pollution event, it’s further stress on the stream—the water quality and the life that lives in it. You’d be surprised how much wildlife there is around our little streams.” He added that petroleum is not the only substance that can be harmful. “In areas where you have had groundwater contamination from petroleum, there can be other substances that are toxic or raise health concerns,” Holleman explained. The EPA told 7NEWS the agency is actively monitoring the diesel spill and working with state agencies to oversee cleanup efforts. Kinder Morgan said once visible diesel is fully removed, crews will begin digging up stained soil and testing it. The company is also monitoring air quality in real time via handheld devices to ensure the safety of workers and the public.
LNG Exports, Data Centers Have North American Natural Gas Poised for Rapid Growth | RBN Energy - The next four years will reshape the future of North America’s natural gas market. LNG exports are set to surge as new terminals across the U.S., Canada and Mexico come online, causing ripple effects through global energy trade and fueling new demand from Europe and Asia. At the same time, the rise of AI and the data centers powering it are contributing to growth in electricity demand, much of which will be met by natural gas. And all of this growing demand is predicated on increasing supplies of affordable natural gas and the midstream infrastructure to get it to market. In today’s RBN blog, we preview our upcoming GasCon 2026 conference, where we’ll bring together expert analysis and leading executives from the upstream, midstream and downstream to show how all the pieces fit together.Over the next four years, North American gas will be reshaped by a LNG export surge and AI-driven power demand. Massive infrastructure buildouts loom. Warning: Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial for our upcoming GasCon 2026 conference, to be held on Wednesday, February 25, in Houston. It’s a one-day deep dive into everything shaping the North American natural gas market. The North American natural gas market began 2026 in high gear. Output in the Lower 48 (see Figure 1 below) reached 110.1 Bcf on January 9, not far from the record 112.6 Bcf set on November 30, 2025, according to RBN’s NATGAS Billboard. Although production fell to 86.6 Bcf on January 25, a result of freeze-offs and weather-related disruptions caused by Winter Storm Fern, output rebounded to 104 Bcf by January 30. To put those figures in context, that’s about double where Lower 48 production was before the Shale Revolution — it averaged 52.8 Bcf/d in 2007 .Gas production has been surging north of the border as well. Western Canada (see Figure 2 below) saw record production of 20.45 Bcf on January 25, inching ahead of the prior record of 20.42 Bcf set on December 4, 2025, according to RBN’s Canadian NATGAS Billboard. This latest high comes after a very strong recovery in supplies since the end of September 2025 and at a time of the year when production strength is most pronounced in Western Canada. We should note that while Western Canadian output is well above where it was in 2007 — about 16 Bcf/d — production fell to as low as 13 Bcf/d in the early 2010s before beginning its increase to today’s levels. As dramatic as North American natural gas supply growth has been, it’s just the precursor to the massive changes we’ll be seeing in the market over the next few years as downstream demand and capacity grow. The changes are so profound we can’t possibly get it all into a single blog. Rather, we’ve got an entire day planned — GasCon 2026 — where we’ll combine RBN’s expert analysis with panels and discussions with those that have their thumbs on the pulse of gas markets. The starting point for our conference will be to give you the full picture of the state of the North American natural gas market and how it could change in the coming years. Module 1 will kick things off with a look at the current domestic supply and demand picture, along with some of the upcoming challenges. We’ll then dive deeper into the driving forces of natural gas demand, by region, within North America.That will set us up for Module 2, where we’ll turn our focus to the elephant in the room: exports of LNG — which have been the most transformative force in the natural gas market over the past decade and are set to ramp up quickly over the next few years. The ripple effects will be felt worldwide as European and Asian buyers recalibrate their import priorities and long-term supply strategies. And there’s still more growth to come. But as monumental as LNG is — and will be — the biggest hype (and most hand-wringing) over the past year has centered on the expected growth of AI and resultant increases in power demand. Much of that new load will ultimately be served, directly or indirectly, by incremental gas-fired generation. All of that growth on the export and domestic fronts depends on a vast supply of low-cost natural gas. From there, the primary question — and the focus of Module 3 — is obvious yet complex: Where will all the gas come from? U.S. and Canadian producers have proven remarkably adept at pushing output ever higher, but the scale of what’s needed to meet future demand is staggering. By 2030, the market may require as much as 25% more gas than is produced today. The Permian will continue to lead the charge with rising volumes of associated gas, and the Haynesville will do its part as well, but additional supply will need to come from other key producing basins that will be increasingly called on to help close the supply/demand gap.
U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Starts to Snap Back after Winter Storm -U.S. LNG feedgas demand is rebounding after Winter Storm Fern, with most Gulf Coast terminals returning to pre-storm operations within days. Before Winter Storm Fern, U.S. LNG feedgas demand in January averaged about 18.8 Bcf/d, which dropped to 10.9 Bcf/d on January 26, before bouncing back. By January 27, most terminals had returned to pre-storm operations. Feedgas demand averaged 16.5 Bcf/d last week, down 0.7 Bcf/d from the previous week (see the blue-dotted line on the left side of the chart below).Freeport Train 3 tripped offline as the storm's impact unwound, delaying full recovery there by a few days, but the terminal is back to full operations. Feedgas intake at the commissioning Plaquemines has been somewhat volatile since the storm, bouncing between 3.5 Bcf/d and 4 Bcf/d. The other Gulf Coast terminals have resumed pre-storm intake levels, but Cove Point and Elba Island are still operating well below full capacity. While temperatures have mostly recovered, the cold lingered in the Northeast and Southeast and prices in those markets were still elevated at the end of last week. During cold weather, LNG feedgas demand declines due to operational issues and financial incentives. Stay tuned to the LNG Voyager Weekly Report for more insights on the LNG industry.
Record Natural Gas Demand Growth Expected After LNG Contracting, FIDs Hit Overdrive, IEA Says - LNG contracting and final investment decisions (FID) for new export terminals reached multi-year highs in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This chart tracks global LNG export terminal FIDs from 2014 to 2025, highlighting capacity surges led by the United States, Qatar and Russia, reflecting cyclical investment waves in global liquefied natural gas supply. At A Glance:
FIDs hit highest level since 2019
Contracting strongest in a decade
Lower prices expected to drive demand
Caturus Inches Commonwealth LNG Toward FID With Mercuria Offtake, Gas Supply Pacts -Caturus Energy LLC has secured more than 70% of offtake from the first phase of its proposed Commonwealth LNG project and a natural gas supplier under a long-term agreement with the trading arm of Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. At A Glance:
- Mercuria signs 20-year LNG deal
- Caturus targets FID by 1Q2026
- Commonwealth capacity 73% contracted
ANR Pipeline Maintenance Expected to Curb U.S. LNG Feed Gas Deliveries This Week -ANR Pipeline Co. on Tuesday kicked off a five-day stretch of maintenance that’s expected to reduce feed gas deliveries to the Calcasieu Pass LNG export terminal in Louisiana. Dashboard titled North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas deliveries from Jan. 25 to Feb. 3, 2026, with volumes rising from about 12.2 million Dth/d to near 18.2 million Dth/d, alongside facility-level deliveries, operating capacity utilization, and a U.S. map highlighting major LNG export terminals. At A Glance:
Feed gas volumes could near 16 Bcf/d
Maintenance scheduled Feb. 3–7
Some volumes rerouted
Cameron Parish Pipeline Fire Linked to Delfin LNG Project, One Injured -- Louisiana state police are investigating the cause of a pipeline explosion in Cameron Parish reportedly connected to infrastructure for the proposed Delfin LNG project. Map of the Delfin LNG Project in the Gulf of Mexico showing offshore floating LNG vessels (FLNGs) connected by pipelines to Port Delfin Deepwater Port, UTOS pipeline route, WC 167 and WC 327 blocks, onshore facilities and compressor station along the Texas Gulf Coast near Louisiana.
At A Glance:
One operator reported injured
Fire contained within hours
Incident precedes impending Delfin FID
ConocoPhillips Says Port Arthur, North Field East LNG Projects Remain On Track -ConocoPhillips said Thursday it expects the North Field East (NFE) LNG expansion project in Qatar to start up in the second half of this year, keeping global LNG supplies on track to continue surging as U.S. projects ramp up too.At A Glance:
- NFE startup expected in 2H2026
- Port Arthur on Track for first LNG in 2027
- Offtake portfolio balloons
Texas LNG Secures Bank Group for $5.7B Debt Financing, FID Soon - Marcellus Drilling News - Glenfarne’s Texas LNG facility in Brownsville, Texas, will have a capacity of 4 MTPA. EQT Corporation, the largest natural gas producer in the Marcellus/Utica, signed two agreements with Glenfarne to liquefy 2.0 million tons per annum (MTPA) of EQT-extracted shale gas at the facility when it’s built (see EQT Signs Contract to Ship 264 MMcf/d to LNG Export Plant in Texas). That works out to be roughly 264 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of EQT’s M-U molecules hitching a ride to South Texas. Good news: Glenfarne has raised $5.7 billion in debt financing to build it. The company actually had people raise their hands, representing $10 billion on offer.
Texas LNG Organizes Financing, Advances Toward FID Later This Year -A unit of Glenfarne Group LLC has inked a preliminary agreement with a consortium of lenders to organize a financial package of more than $5.7 billion in funding for its Texas LNG project. At A Glance:
- Lender interest exceeds $10 billion
- Early 2026 FID targeted
- FERC deadline set for 2029
Tetco Work Could Limit Freeport LNG Feed Gas, Further Limiting U.S. Flows in February --Maintenance announced for a stretch of the Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) pipeline system could further impact U.S. feed gas deliveries this month.North America LNG export flow tracker chart showing U.S. LNG export volumes from Jan. 26 to Feb. 4, 2026, with daily flows rising to about 18.8 Bcf/d. Graphic includes bar chart of total LNG exports, facility-level deliveries and utilization for Corpus Christi, Freeport, Golden Pass, Sabine Pass, Cameron, Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines, Elba Island and Cove Point, plus a U.S. map highlighting LNG export terminal locations and total deliveries of roughly 18.8 million dekatherms as of Feb. 4, 2026.At A Glance:
Tetco to start pipe cleaning
Deliveries will be cut at Stratton Ridge
Freeport could offset loss with other lines
Cheniere Moving Ahead With Yet Another LNG Expansion Project at Corpus Christi Terminal - North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing daily U.S. LNG export volumes by terminal, operating capacity utilization and total deliveries in dekatherms, with a map of export facilities and data current as of Feb. 6, 2026. Cheniere Energy Inc. has filed an application to construct the Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) Stage 4 expansion project that would add another 24 million tons/year of liquefaction capacity at the export terminal in South Texas. nAccording to the application, the expansion would add four liquefaction trains, two storage tanks and a marine terminal. It would also include building a 42-inch, 26-mile pipeline to increase feed gas deliveries to the CCL terminal by 2.75 Bcf/d
Cheniere Submits Application to Build Massive LNG Plant in Texas - (Reuters) – Cheniere Energy, the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the U.S., has submitted an application to build a 24 million metric tonnes per annum LNG plant at its Corpus Christi location in Texas, according to a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The proposed project will be an expansion of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi plant, which at present has a capacity of 18 mtpa but could soon produce as much as 25 mtpa with the ongoing Stage 3 expansion expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the Stage 4 project is approved, Corpus Christi capacity would eventually rise to 49 mtpa. The latest expansion would entail adding four new LNG processing plants, also called trains, that will each produce 6 mtpa of LNG, according to the filing with FERC. Cheniere expects that the Stage 4 expansion will require 3.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day and it hopes to get federal approval by May next year for the project. In 2025 the U.S. exported 111 million metric tonnes of LNG according to preliminary data from financial firm LSEG. The U.S. has another 100 mtpa under construction to come online between 2027 and 2030, leading to concerns by some energy majors that there could be an over supply of LNG by 2030. With the more favorable permitting climate in the U.S., Cheniere has been in a race with Venture Global (VG.N) to be the first U.S. exporter to get to 100 mtpa. Cheniere has a present capacity of 52 mtpa with another 8 mtpa under construction. Venture Global has a capacity of 40 mtpa with another 28 mtpa under construction.
LNG Wave Poised to Revive European Industry at Expense of U.S. End Users, Wood Mackenzie Cautions --The United States’ role as Europe’s leading LNG supplier could ultimately undermine the country’s competitive advantage in the global manufacturing and industrial sectors as energy prices are poised to fall on the continent, according to a recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie. Bar chart showing Europe LNG imports by region of origin from 2020 to 2025, highlighting growing volumes from the United States, Qatar, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa, with declining Russian Federation supply measured in million tonnes (Mt). -- At A Glance:
$8 European gas price expected
U.S. gas prices could jump 50%
Regulations could limit European impact
NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Price Suffers “Historic” Collapse of 26% -- Marcellus Drilling News - Natural gas futures suffered a historic 26% collapse—the steepest one-day percentage drop since 1995 (over 30 years!)—as the most-active “front month” contract plunged over a dollar to close at $3.237/MMBtu. This dramatic retreat was fueled by forecasts of “well above normal” temperatures across the Eastern U.S. and a recovery in production following recent freeze-offs, both of which point toward a looming inventory buildup. Although analysts at NatGasWeather.com suggest the market may have overshot the actual data, the combination of a thawing climate and stabilizing supply clearly spooked investors enough to trigger this record-breaking slide.
US natural gas futures rise 2% on output decline, increased LNG flows (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Tuesday on a small decline in output, along with increases in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. That price increase came despite forecasts for the weather to turn warmer than normal through mid-February, and for lower demand next week than previously expected. Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $3.311 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since January 16. Gas futures soared 140% between January 20 and 28 as extreme cold boosted heating demand to near-record highs and cut output to a two-year low by freezing oil and gas wells, before dropping 57% from January 29-February 2 as warmer weather thawed wells and boosted output. Those massive price changes boosted historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to a record high for a fourth day in a row, reaching 258.1% on Tuesday. That volatility boosted trading volume in the front-month to a record 554,860 contracts on Monday, topping the prior all-time high of 459,200 contracts set in November 2018. Higher market volatility increases traders' opportunities to profit in a shorter amount of time, but also carries greater risks. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February due mostly to reductions in North Dakota and Wyoming, down from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December. After extreme cold last week, meteorologists projected weather across the country would turn mostly warmer than normal through February 18. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were still expected to remain below normal for another week. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 159.7 bcfd this week to 143.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower. Analysts projected energy firms likely pulled so much gas out of storage to meet nearrecord demand during the Arctic blast last week that stockpiles would go from around 5% above normal for this time of year during the week ended January 23 to about 1% below normal during the week ended January 30. Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
Natural gas rebounds after brutal crash as traders brace for record storage draw - U.S. natural gas futures climbed roughly 15 cents Wednesday, as the NYMEX March Henry Hub contract gained 15.4 cents to reach $3.465 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early afternoon trading. 1 The rally is driven by traders eyeing the upcoming U.S. storage data. Analysts polled by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, forecast the Energy Information Administration will report a 366 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 30 — which would shatter the previous record and push inventories from surplus into deficit against the five-year average. “Nobody is going to care if it warms up, but right now it’s going to be a draw for the ages,” said Phil Flynn, senior account executive at The Price Futures Group. 2 The market remains unsettled after a sharp selloff. U.S. natural gas plunged the most in a single day since 1995 on Monday, with the March contract closing down 25.7% at $3.237 per mmBtu, according to Bloomberg. 3 Prices edged up slightly on Tuesday despite forecasts showing warmer-than-usual temperatures through mid-February and an expected drop in demand next week. March futures climbed 4.9 cents, or 1.5%, settling at $3.286. Meanwhile, 30-day close-to-close volatility stayed at a record high of 258.1% for the third consecutive day, Reuters noted. 4 Spot prices reveal just how quickly the panic eased. Henry Hub’s cash price hit $4.40 per mmBtu on Monday, Feb. 2, down sharply from the $30.72 peak on Jan. 22 during the storm-induced surge, according to EIA data. 5 LNG flows continue to impact U.S. supply figures. Exports dropped to 11.3 million metric tons in January, down from a record 11.5 million in December, Reuters said, citing preliminary data from LSEG. The decline followed a late-month freeze that hit output. 6 Overseas demand also plays a role. Eni executive Cristian Signoretto told Reuters the LNG market this year appears “very finely balanced,” noting that “Europe has very low storages, and we need to refill it in the summer.” 7 Producers highlight how volatile markets impact realized prices. Equinor revealed it sold roughly 30% of its U.S. gas volumes on the spot market in January amid the cold snap. CFO Torgrim Reitan noted, “We held around 30% of our exposure to cash prices or spot prices.” 8 Natural gas-linked stocks showed a mixed picture in U.S. trading. EQT dipped roughly 0.4%, while Antero Resources climbed around 0.8%. Cheniere Energy edged up about 0.4%, and Equinor’s U.S.-listed shares jumped approximately 1.3%. On the downside, Comstock Resources dropped close to 4.3%, and Kinder Morgan slid nearly 1.0%. The market remains unsettled. If withdrawals come in smaller than expected or production bounces back faster, futures could slip sharply. On the other hand, another spell of extreme cold would reignite supply concerns and send cash prices climbing once more. Traders will be watching Thursday’s EIA storage report, usually out at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Alongside that, fresh weather model updates and daily LNG feedgas flow data will also factor in.
Natural gas price heads into next week under pressure as warm forecasts, rising rigs crowd the trade -- Natural gas futures in the U.S. dropped on Friday, as traders factored in warmer weather outlooks and fresh supply cues heading into next week. The March Henry Hub contract slipped 8.7 cents, closing at $3.422 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down roughly 2.5%. 1 The market’s still feeling the aftershocks of last week’s weather swing—a wild Arctic surge sent prices soaring, only to see them sink again as the outlook warmed. February’s heating demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Each tweak in those temperature models? It hits prices immediately. Next week’s real test: does the market keep chasing those mild forecasts, or does it snap back to the tightening storage story after booking the largest weekly withdrawal on record? Liquidity usually dries up heading into the weekend. The first signs of direction will show up Sunday evening, when futures kick back into gear. U.S. natural gas storage just logged a record-breaking drawdown. Inventories across the Lower 48 dropped by 360 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended January 30, according to the Energy Information Administration—the steepest weekly withdrawal the federal Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report has ever recorded. Stocks now sit roughly 1.1% under the five-year average for this period, as Winter Storm Fern cranked up heating demand and triggered production cuts via freeze-offs and shut-ins. 2 On the supply side, the picture is shifting. U.S. natural gas rigs climbed to 130 for the week ending February 6, up from 125 the previous week, Baker Hughes numbers from YCharts show. The next data drop lands February 13. 3 Near-term balance isn’t just about the weather—exports and pipeline limits are also in play. Reuters, citing LSEG figures, noted U.S. gas production edged up early February, even as overall demand, exports included, is expected to dip next week. Gas headed to LNG export plants still acts as a lever, pulling supply out of the domestic mix. 4 European gas prices swung sharply again. Dutch TTF natural gas futures finished Tuesday at 35.694 euros per megawatt-hour, a 5.81% jump from the previous session, according to Investing.com data. 5 There’s fresh movement on the long-term demand front, too. Cheniere Energy has submitted paperwork to U.S. regulators for a 24 million tonnes-per-year expansion at its Corpus Christi facility in Texas—enough to require roughly 3.3 billion cubic feet of gas daily. The filing adds fuel to the ongoing debate around the pace of U.S. LNG capacity growth. 6 A Greek joint venture is out shopping for a long-term U.S. LNG contract, aiming to bolster southern Europe’s supply line—another sign Europe is hustling to secure gas before Russian imports are off the table. “If Europe doesn’t want to be again hostage to gas, they need to secure long-term agreements with the United States,” CEO Alexandros Exarchou told Reuters. He also said, “now (is) the best possible time to negotiate prices for the future.” 7 The risk is simple enough here: February weather models can change on a dime, so if cold settles back in, tighter balances could follow, despite more drilling. On the other hand, if forecasts for milder weather stick and output continues to rebound post-storm, prices could slide further and remain depressed. All eyes now turn to the EIA’s weekly storage report coming up February 12, a key marker. Traders are tracking updated temperature forecasts and LNG feedgas data, looking for any hint that demand is slowing down as much as the models have projected.
Winter Storm Fern Freezes Gulf Coast Crude Flows --U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports averaged 3.7 MMb/d for the week ended January 30, sliding nearly 350 Mb/d from the prior week and coming in roughly 200 Mb/d below the 2026 YTD average as Winter Storm Fern swept across much of the country. The storm disrupted production, port operations, and terminal loadings, with freeze-offs tightening supply into export docks. According to our Crude Oil Permian report, Fern led to as much as 1.3 MMb/d of Permian production shut-ins during its peak, constraining feedstock availability just as ports were contending with weather-related disruptions. Corpus Christi continued to serve as the backbone of Gulf Coast exports and showed a slight increase in exports week-on-week, but volumes out of Houston, Beaumont, and Louisiana pulled back. As discussed in our Crude Voyager, Houston-area terminals loaded an estimated 1.21 MMb/d across 12 vessels, down 16% from the prior week, and reflecting the Port of Houston’s closure, which started at 6 pm on Saturday, January 24. After U.S. Coast Guard approval, the port partially reopened to outbound traffic on Monday morning, January 26, and returned to full operations on Tuesday, January 27. For the third straight week, no crude loadings were recorded at Seaway Texas City or Texas International terminals in the Houston region. While exports are expected to rebound as weather impacts fade and ports normalize, last week’s data highlights how Gulf Coast crude flows remain exposed when winter freeze-offs and port closures collide.
Freeze Offs Tighten Crude Supplies as Distillate Draws Lift Cracks - Last week’s U.S. crude oil market was dominated by weather driven disruptions that tightened crude and distillate balances. Winter Storm Fern triggered widespread freeze offs, cutting Lower 48 weekly average production by 480 Mb/d (see graph below) and driving a 3.46 MMbbl draw in commercial crude inventories, with exports also falling due to terminal disruptions. Refinery runs declined as winter maintenance accelerated, while cold weather sharply reduced gasoline demand but boosted distillate demand, leading to a 5.55 MMbbl draw in distillate stocks, the largest since this period last year. These shifts strengthened margins, with the 3-2-1 crack rising to $24.52/bbl, led by a 20% jump in diesel cracks even as gasoline cracks weakened. Unaccounted for crude volumes swung deeply negative, likely reflecting reporting distortions tied to the scale of weather related supply and logistics disruptions.
Judge finds Texas anti-ESG law unconstitutional -A federal judge has blocked a Texas law aimed at protecting the oil and gas industry, finding that the law is “unconstitutionally vague” and violates the First Amendment right to free speech. Judge Alan Albright of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas ruled on Wednesday that the 2021 law barring the state from investing in or contracting with businesses that “boycott” fossil fuels is “unconstitutional and unenforceable” because it affects activity protected under the Constitution. The law’s “definition of ‘boycott energy companies’ permits the state to penalize companies for all manner of protected expression concerning fossil fuels,” wrote the judge, a Trump appointee. Albright ordered Texas to stop implementing or enforcing the law.
Houston-based energy company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy — Houston-based Nine Energy Service Inc. (NYSE: NINE) has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and plans to restructure.Nine’s subsidiaries in the U.S. and Canada are included in the filing but its operations in Norway are not. According to court documents, the debtors had approximately $388 million in total funded debt obligations as of the Feb. 1 petition date. Nine had $340.7 million in assets as of Sept. 30, 2025.In a Feb. 1 news release, the oil field services company said it reached an agreement with its debtholders on a comprehensive recapitalization transaction prior to filing the prepackaged Chapter 11 case. Through restructuring transactions, Nine will eliminate about $320 million of senior secured notes, reducing its annual interest expense by about $40 million. Nine said it will continue operating as usual through the court-supervised process and has received a commitment for $125 million in debtor-in-possession financing through its asset-based lender to support the operations.
Coterra and Devon announce a $21.4 billion merger. The deal creates a new Houston-based oil giant -- Houston's Coterra Energy announced a blockbuster $21.4 billion all-stock merger with Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy - a deal that would land the combined company among the biggest oil companies in the energy capital. The merger announced Monday would create a $58 billion oil giant based in Houston, the companies said. It is the largest in the sector since Diamondback Energy's $26 billion acquisition of Endeavor Energy Resources in 2024. The deal continues a yearslong consolidation trend across the U.S. oil and gas industry as producers weigh how best to navigate a maturing market in historic oilfields. Now, they also face higher production costs, lower crude prices and an increasingly bloated global oil market as Venezuelan oil production takes off. TEXAS OIL DEALS: Eagle Ford on the chopping block as Exxon refocuses drilling strategy "The combination of Devon and Coterra demonstrates that the wave of consolidation sweeping U.S. shale isn't finished yet and the march towards fewer, larger producers feels inevitable," said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research. Both companies operate in Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin and the Delaware portion of the Permian Basin, in Texas and New Mexico. "The Delaware Basin is the real prize of the deal from Devon's perspective and the centerpiece of the combined company," said Dittmar. "The deal propels Devon from the third largest to top producer in the prolific Delaware Basin based on gross operated volumes and positions it as a top three overall Permian producer on a gross operated basis." The merger is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. The company will be helmed by Devon Energy's current Chief Executive Clay Gaspar, and will keep its name after moving to Houston from Oklahoma City.
ConocoPhillips Increases Production, Lowers Capex Highlighting Drilling Efficiencies --ConocoPhillips (COP), on its Q4 earnings call on February 5, described its Lower 48 production in 2025 as “more production for less capital.” The numbers don’t lie: in Q&A, management highlighted that Delaware oil productivity per foot is up 8% year over year even as lateral lengths increased 9%. In the Eagle Ford, 2025 oil productivity per foot was up another 7% from last year, and COP plans to reduce capital spending by more than 5% versus 2025 while maintaining 2026 production guidance of 2.33 to 2.36 MMboe/d, in line with the 2.32 MMboe/d produced in 2025. COP emphasized that its upcoming LNG projects in Qatar (NFE and NFS), along with Port Arthur LNG, will drive future free cash flow. In 2026, balancing capex and operating costs while keeping production flat or growing will largely be about increasing free cash flow. EVP of Strategy and Commercial Andy O’Brien mentioned, “as we get into ’27 and ’28 a significant part of that is being driven by the LNG where we have NFE coming on, Port Arthur coming on, and NFS coming on.” He went on to mention, “we’ve placed the first 5 million tons that we have out of Port Arthur Phase 1 into Europe and Asia… and our view is that we’re feeling pretty confident around LNG prices holding up over the rest of this decade.” When asked about WCS spreads, COP’s view was that Venezuelan barrels returning to market shouldn’t materially disrupt Canadian heavy in the near-to-medium term, because “PADD 2 refiners are structurally reliant on the Canadian heavy and have minimum alternative options to displace those barrels… Gulf Coast refiners can process the heavy barrels, and we’re starting to see some of those refiners express interest in purchasing some of those Venezuelan barrels.” O’Brien went on to say, “our view is the incremental Venezuelan barrels will likely be absorbed… The way we’re thinking about it is that the annual global demand is growing at 1 MMb/d. We’re going to need incremental sources of supply to help meet that demand growth. So, our modeling isn’t showing that the Venezuelan crude coming in is going to have a material impact on Canadian heavy.”
Ruptured pipe spills oil near marina at Port of Los Angeles in Wilmington - ABC7 Los Angeles (KABC) -- Cleanup efforts are underway after a pipe ruptured and leaked oil near the marina in Wilmington early Thursday morning. The incident unfolded on Anchorage Road near the Island Yacht Marina. The U.S. Coast Guard says it responded to reports of a ruptured pipe just before 5 a.m., leaking a mixture of water and oil. Initial reports suggested that liquid spilled into the marina, but officials later said they didn't observe any pollution on the water. However, some soil and vegetation in the area was impacted. AIR7 was over the scene where there was a large amount of the substance spilled on the road. The rupture was secured a short time after. The Coast Coast will conduct an assessment to determine how much of the mixture spilled. Officials said that no oiled wildlife has been observed. Some who live in the are described a hectic scene but said they were appreciative of prompt response by officials. Evacuation orders were issued for live-aboard boats at several of the nearby docks as a precaution, but they have since been lifted. No injuries were reported. Two contracted clean-up crews were working to clear the spill.
California regulators try to save ‘critical’ oil pipeline with rate hike - California regulators on Thursday approved a nearly 60 percent increase on what oil producers must pay to use the only pipeline carrying crude oil from the state’s oil fields to Bay Area refineries. The rate hike is an attempt to save a flagging centerpiece of the state’s oil infrastructure, although the pipeline’s operator said it may close it if business does not pick up quickly. The California Public Utilities Commission adopted an emergency relief measure that will raise the rates on the San Pablo Bay pipeline system from $2.36 per barrel to $3.75 per barrel — a 59 percent jump. The pipeline is a “critical part of California’s crude oil infrastructure,” the CPUC wrote in its decision, since it is the only connection between the heart of oil production in Southern California and refineries in the north. If it closes, it will leave the state’s oil system more vulnerable to major disruptions and could force producers to seek alternative means of oil transportation, such as trucking. Oil producers stopped shipping product through the pipeline in December, according to Robert Waldron, the CEO of CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, which owns the Crimson California Pipeline company that operates the pipeline.
Bill targets oil refineries’ use of ‘exceptionally hazardous chemical’ - Oil refineries would be banned from using the toxic compound hydrofluoric acid — which can be deadly even at low concentrations — in making high-octane gasoline under a new bill from California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters.The “Preventing Mass Casualties from Release of Hydrofluoric Acid at Refineries Act,” H.R. 7384, would give existing plants five years to find alternatives to what it describes as “an exceptionally hazardous chemical” that could kill or injure thousands of people in the event of a major accident. Violators would be subject to fines of up to $37,500 per infraction.About 40 refineries currently use hydrofluoric acid, which is also known as hydrogen fluoride or HF. More than 14 million people living near refineries are at risk, many of them in communities “disproportionately impacted by environmental burdens,” the legislation states. One of those refineries is located in the city of Torrance in Waters’ Southern California district. In 2015, the plant was shaken by an explosion that could have been catastrophic had a tank containing tens of thousands of pounds of modified HF ruptured, according to a later inquiry.
US adds 5 rigs, Canada’s rig count drops by 4 | Oil & Gas Journal - US drilling activity increased this week with a 5-unit gain. For the week ended Feb. 6, there were 551 rigs working in the US, down 35 from the same period a year ago. Three additional rigs were drilling on land this week, bringing the total to 532. That count is down 38 from the same period in 2025. There were 2 additional rigs drilling offshore for a total of 16 this week, while the rig count for inland waters remained unchanged at 3. Of those rigs drilling in the US and its waters, 130 were gas-directed, 5 more than last week. One additional rig drilled for oil, bringing the count to 412. Canada's rig count decreased by 4 rigs to 228 this week. That compares with 249 rigs working at this time a year ago. Of those rigs working this week, 155 were drilling for oil, down a single unit from last week, and 73 were drilling for gas, down 3 from last week. Six additional rigs were running in Texas to reach 232 rigs running. New Mexico and California each dropped a rig to hit 101 and 7 rigs working, respectively, to end the week.
Amigo LNG Nears FID as President Sheinbaum Pledges Final Permits for Export Facility -Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum visited the port of Guaymas in Sonora on Sunday (Feb. 1), where she was joined by private sector companies including the developers of Amigo LNG. At A Glance:
- West Texas gas feeds project
- Permitting expected in a month
- Mexico eyes southern industrial growth
Canadian Natural Gas Production Outpaces LNG Demand, Capping AECO Prices -Persistent production growth in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is expected to trump gains in LNG feed gas and power demand, capping regional prices for the next few years, according to Morningstar DBRS.Line chart titled “NGI’s NOVA/AECO C Forward Basis Price Curve” showing monthly forward basis prices from February 2026 through January 2028. Prices begin near -$5.60/MMBtu in early 2026, rise sharply to around -$2.50/MMBtu by spring 2026, fluctuate mostly between -$3.00/MMBtu and -$2.00/MMBtu through 2027, peak near -$1.60/MMBtu in mid-2027, and ease back toward approximately -$2.20/MMBtu by early 2028. At A Glance:
AECO 2026 averages C$2.50
Forward AECO basis deeply negative
LNG capacity reshapes regional flows
Oil spill cleanup underway at Sidney marina following boat fire - Western Canada Marine Response Corporation (WCMRC) crews were at Van Isle Marina on Monday, continuing cleanup efforts following an oil spill caused by a Feb. 1 boat fire that destroyed and sank three large vessels. The spill stems from a blaze early Sunday morning at the Sidney marina, where three 70-foot fibreglass boats caught fire near the fuel dock and were ultimately lost. All three vessels sank in place, prompting an environmental response as fuel was released into the water. While the WCMRC has not yet determined how much fuel entered the harbour, a significant on-site presence remains as containment and recovery work continues. “At this time, there are approximately 14 WCMRC crew members on-site actively responding to the incident. In addition, multiple WCMRC staff are supporting the response behind the scenes, including logistics, planning, and operational coordination,” a spokesperson from WCMRC said. They’ve focused on stopping the spread of marine diesel in the immediate aftermath of the fire. “In the first 24 hours, our efforts focused on containing the diesel released during the incident,” they said. “A containment boom was deployed immediately and remains in place to prevent further spread. Once containment was secure, crews transitioned to mechanical recovery operations, using skimmers and sorbents to remove diesel from the water. These activities are ongoing, and our team continues to monitor conditions.” As cleanup continues, the fuel dock at Van Isle Marina remains temporarily closed. “Fuel containment and surface cleanup are actively underway, with environmental protection as a top priority. Salvage planning is in progress and will proceed in close coordination with the appropriate authorities to safely remove the vessels and debris,” the marina said in a Facebook post. The fire itself broke out around 7:30 a.m. on Feb. 1, with Sidney Fire Department crews responding to reports of a vessel fire near the fuel dock. Upon arrival, firefighters found three large vessels fully engulfed. It took roughly 90 minutes to extinguish the fire, after which the WCMRC came in to address fuel containment and cleanup. Determining the cause of the blaze may prove difficult due to the extent of the damage and the vessels sinking. “We may never know what caused it, but we did what we had to do to mitigate the impacts of the fire,” Sidney Fire Chief Brett Mikkelsen said.
Shell Says LNG Canada Exports Cut AECO Exposure as Phase 2 Talks Progress --Key LNG Canada partners are crediting the project’s export ramp-up for staunching impacts from falling oil and natural gas prices as talks of a potential expansion heat up. At A Glance:
- Shell LNG volumes support profit outlook
- AECO basis remains deeply discounted
- LNG Canada shipments outpace 2025 totals
Cold Snap Returns to Europe as U.S. LNG Supply Roars Back -Markets are reacting to lingering cold settling over northern and eastern Europe in the coming days as a thawing United States ushers a surge of LNG volumes back into the international supply pool. Europe and Asia weather charts showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures versus normal for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo, with daily average temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit through Feb. 4, 2026. At A Glance:
European storage dips below 40%
Hydro risks boost gas demand expectations
Asian LNG demand muted on milder weather
Poland and Lithuania reached record gas consumption - The harsh winter brought numerous records for Polish TSO and Świnoujście terminal operator Gaz-System. The first was the annual gas transmission volume, which reached 22.8 billion cubic metres in 2025. A record daily transmission of 108 million cubic metres was set on 8 January and was surpassed on 2 February, reaching 114.8 million. The monthly transmission also hit an unprecedented level, exceeding 3 billion cubic metres for the first time in January. The export figures are equally remarkable. Last year, the company shipped 2 billion cubic metres of gas abroad, 13 times as much as in 2024. Lithuania reached a record on 2 February as well. Lithuania reached a record high in gas consumption on 2 February, with 135.24 GWh. The majority of this volume, 114.67 GWh, arrived in the country through the Klaipėda LNG terminal, while the rest was delivered via the Santaka gas entry point from Poland. The last time Lithuania saw gas demand this high was in February 2021. The spike was driven by the cold weather and a higher need for electricity, with Ignitis Gamyba, the country’s main power generator, accounting for one-sixth of the consumption. The maximum capacity, 58.7 GWh, has been used to transmit flows from Poland towards Latvia.
Greek joint venture to deliver its first US LNG to Ukraine - Atlantic See LNG Trade, a joint venture between the Greek AKTOR Group and DEPA Commercial, signed the first agreement for the sale of US LNG with BP as supplier and Naftogaz as buyer, Naftemporiki reported.The first LNG cargo will arrive at Revithoussa, with its delivery to Ukraine scheduled in March. The gas will be transported via Route 1 (Greece – Bulgaria – Romania – Moldova – Ukraine). The quantity may reach up to 1 million megawatt-hours MWh (1 terawatt-hours TWh/89,34 million cubic metres), depending on the available capacity of the network operators.This agreement is the first major commercial transaction of Atlantic See LNG Trade, which was established last November. The company has already entered into a long-term agreement with Venture Global for the supply of LNG from the United States starting in 2030.“Following the delivery of the first American LNG cargo in March, we are moving from planning to action, commercially exploiting the infrastructure of the Vertical Corridorthat enhances the interconnectivity and diversification of supply sources in the wider region,” said Konstantinos Xifaras, President of Atlantic See LNG Trade and CEO of DEPA Commercial.
Ukraine Steps up U.S. LNG Imports With Initial Delivery via Poland --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker chart showing U.S. LNG export volumes by terminal, daily deliveries in dekatherms, operating capacity utilization and a U.S. map highlighting LNG export facilities, with data through 05-Feb-2026.
- 100 MMcm: Ukraine received its first cargo of U.S. LNG via a transportation agreement with Poland’s Orlen SA, according to state-owned Naftogaz Group. Around 100 million cubic meters (MMcm) of U.S. supplies regasified at the Świnoujście terminal in Poland was transported to Ukraine, with more deliveries expected through March. Ukraine has been ramping up imports of U.S. LNG through its strategic partnership with Poland as Russian attacks on infrastructure continue to curtail domestic supplies. Imports of U.S. gas could reach 1 billion cubic meters this year, according to Naftogaz.
- 2.28 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are estimated to swing upward week/week, driven by a return of feed gas flows to Gulf Coast terminals and swelling demand from Latin America. U.S. export volumes are expected to reach 2.28 million tons (Mt) for the week of Feb. 2, up by around 1 cargo, according to Kpler predictive data. Latin America saw the largest weekly gains, with around 0.20 Mt headed to the region. Predicted imports to Europe fell for the second week in a row, while U.S. exports to Asia saw a slight gain.
- 4 Bcf/d: Venture Global Inc. has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction contract for the second phase of CP2 LNG to Worley Ltd., according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission 8-K filing. Venture Global, which selected Worley for the first phase of the 28 Mt/y project, has targeted a final investment decision for the remaining trains later this year. CP2 could add up to 4 Bcf/d in feed gas demand at peak capacity before the end of the decade.
- 20 months: The European Union (EU) has begun phasing out Russian natural gas projects ahead of a complete ban in 2027. The bloc’s energy officials detailed Feb. 3 the full plan for transitioning from Russian gas supply, including canceling a first tranche of contracts as soon as April 25. So far this year, the United States has supplied more than 57% of all LNG imports to the EU.
Global Natural Gas Prices Slide as Iran Scraps Live-Fire Drills in Strait of Hormuz -Global energy prices fell Monday as brutal cold waned and tensions between the United States and Iran eased. North America LNG export flow tracker chart showing U.S. LNG feed gas deliveries by terminal, daily volumes in dekatherms and total deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities as of Feb. 2, 2026.At A Glance:
Oil, natural gas prices both down
U.S. feed gas hits pre-storm levels
Europe well supplied
Oil prices fall sharply on US-Iran de-escalation - Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a de-escalation of tensions with an OPEC member, while a stronger dollar also weighed on prices. Brent crude futures were down $3.34, or 4.8%, at $65.98 per barrel at 1113 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.37, or 5.2%, to $61.84 per barrel. Brent and WTI fell after posting their biggest monthly increase since 2022 in January, as risks of a military strike on Iran receded after Trump’s weekend comments. Brent gained 16% in January, while WTI rose by 13%. The lack of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, as well as falling supply disruptions in the U.S. and Kazakhstan, weighed on oil prices. On Saturday Trump told reporters Iran was “seriously talking”, hours after Tehran’s top security official Ali Larijani said arrangements for negotiations were underway. Trump had repeatedly threatened Iran with intervention if it did not agree to a nuclear deal or continued killing protesters. The persistent threats have underpinned oil prices throughout January. The weakness in oil this morning is the combination of the disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium as the U.S. and Iran show tentative willingness to negotiate, and the uptick in the dollar due to the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chairman. The slump was also driven by a broader commodities markets selloff led by deep losses in gold and silver, which analysts partially attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar. “The recent pullback has also been reinforced by renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, which typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, further weighing on prices,” Concerns about global oil supply exceeding demand also came back into focus following de-escalation in the Middle East, analysts said. At a meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil output unchanged for March. In November, the grouping had frozen further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption. “Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market,” “The historical example of last year’s 12-day war (between Israel and Iran), and a well-supplied oil market, will still bear down on Brent crude prices by end-2026.”
Oil Prices Tumble on Announced US-Iran Talks -- Oil and product futures plunged around 5% Monday, Feb. 2, morning after U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials announced talks between Washington and Tehran. WTI futures for March delivery plummeted $3.31 to $61.90 bbl, and ICE Brent for April delivery fell $3.33 to $65.99 bbl. Downstream, front-month RBOB futures were down 4.2%, or $0.0812, to $1.8610 gallon, and ULSD for March delivery plunged $0.1415 to $2.3915 gallon, down 5.6%. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.351 points to 97.210 against a basket of foreign currencies. Growing geopolitical risks centered around Iran have been pushing oil prices higher throughout January, peaking at a four-month high last Thursday on fears of an imminent U.S. attack. On Saturday though, Trump said that Washington and Tehran are "seriously talking". Iranian officials over the weekend struck a similar tone, announcing that negotiations were being arranged. Lessened supply risks and a return of previously shut-in production in the U.S. and Kazakhstan had market participants refocus on bearish fundamentals. Most analysts expect crude oil to be in oversupply throughout 2026, forecasting a large overhang particularly in the first quarter amid seasonal refiner maintenance. A broader commodity sell-off, supported by the U.S. dollar recovering from recent lows, further pressured oil prices. The U.S. Dollar Index remained some two points below the mid-January high, however. Oil prices, meanwhile, were still up more than 7% from the beginning of the year after today's plunge. Several manufacturing PMIs set to be released today will provide further insight into oil demand growth, which is expected to lag global supply additions this year. The Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing PMI for December showed the decline in U.S. manufacturing activity speeding up last month.
Easing U.S.–Iran Tensions Trigger Sharp Selloff in the Oil Market - The crude market on Monday sold off sharply as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran appeared to ease. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a de-escalation of tensions, while a stronger dollar and milder weather forecasts also pressured the oil complex. The market opened at its high of $64.74 and sold off sharply amid the news that arrangement for negotiations between Iran and the U.S. were underway. U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to meet on Friday to discuss a possible nuclear deal. The oil market extended its losses to over $3.80 as it posted a low of $61.39 in overnight trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The March WTI contract settled down $3.07 at $62.14 and the April Brent contract settled down $3.02 at $66.30. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 17.32 cents at $2.3598 amid a change in the 8-15 day weather forecast calling for near normal to above normal temperatures for most of the country. The RB market settled down 9.08 cents at $1.8514. Axios reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul to discuss a possible nuclear deal. Earlier, Iran’s semi-official Fars news service reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the start of negotiations with Washington “within the framework of the nuclear issue.” Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said a new round of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia will take place in Abu Dhabi on February 4th and 5th, adding that Kyiv was ready for a “substantive discussion”. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Tuesday, where he will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid heightened regional tensions with Iran and as the Trump administration presses ahead with its plan to end the Gaza war. The Kremlin also said that the next round of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia will take place in Abu Dhabi from February 4th-5th, saying talks planned for February 1st had not happened for scheduling reasons. OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil output unchanged for March at a meeting, even after crude prices hit six-month highs on concern the U.S. could launch a military strike on Iran. Sunday’s brief meeting reaffirmed their decision to keep output unchanged for March, after earlier gatherings did the same for January and February. Crude oil producers in the United States continued bringing oil wells back online on Monday, with only around 0.7% of national output still halted in the aftermath of a winter storm that cut output in late January. According to consultancy Energy Aspects, about 100,000 bpd of crude output remained shut, with outages in the Anadarko accounting for the majority of the losses, followed by the Appalachia.
Oil Drifts Lower as Iran Talks and Russia Supply Risks Reshape the Outlook -- Crude prices are easing as the market responds to early signs of diplomatic cooling between the U.S. and Iran, reducing the immediate geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices. Brent is down 0.4% at $66 a barrel, while WTI is lower by 0.3% at $60.84, reflecting a shift in trader focus from military escalation scenarios toward the possibility of renewed negotiations. Officials from both countries are expected to meet in Turkey this week, and the mere scheduling of talks has been enough to temper fears of near-term disruption, even though the underlying stakes remain high. The price reaction underscores how sensitive oil remains to geopolitical signaling rather than outright supply changes. With concerns about imminent U.S. military action subsiding, markets are recalibrating around the potential for a nuclear deal framework to re-emerge. That would alter expectations for regional stability and the future flow of Iranian barrels, even before any concrete policy outcome is delivered. For now, crude is trading on probability rather than certainty, and the current softness reflects a market that is increasingly unwilling to price worst-case outcomes without confirmation. At the same time, the supply balance is being complicated by shifts in global trade pressure. President Trump’s agreement to reduce tariffs on India to 18%, in exchange for New Delhi halting purchases of Russian oil, introduces a separate tightening channel. This development increases pressure on the Urals discount, as Russia may be forced to offer steeper concessions to attract alternative buyers. If demand for those barrels continues to thin, the implication is not just weaker Russian pricing power but the possibility that output would eventually have to decline, which would tighten the market from the supply side even as headline crude prices drift lower today. Investors are now watching two key threads. The base case is that talks in Turkey proceed without collapse, keeping geopolitical risk contained and limiting upside pressure in the near term. The risk scenario is that negotiations break down or trade measures further restrict Russian flows, rapidly reintroducing supply anxiety and forcing crude to reprice higher. For oil markets, the coming days are less about current demand signals and more about whether diplomacy and policy decisions stabilize supply expectations or reopen volatility.
Oil Steady as Iran Tensions Ease, OPEC Sticks to Target (DTN) -- Oil and product futures edged higher Tuesday, Feb. 3, morning, after dropping more than 4% in the previous session as a portion of the geopolitical risk premium tied to U.S.-Iran tensions faded after both sides announced talks. OPEC on Monday, meanwhile, revealed that Iraq, Kazakhstan, Oman and the UAE agreed to lower voluntary production cuts to compensate for past overproduction in the months ahead. On Sunday, eight OPEC+ countries reaffirmed plans to extend the pause in production hikes to March. The OPEC commitment, along with U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a trade deal with India, supported oil prices. NYMEX traded WTI futures for March delivery rose $0.41 to $62.55 bbl, and ICE Brent for April delivery advanced $0.31 to $66.61 bbl. Downstream, front-month ULSD futures added $0.0334 to trade near $2.3932 gallon, and RBOB for March delivery gained $0.0193 to $1.8707 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index remained little changed, softening by 0.102 points to 97.545 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S. and Iranian diplomats are to resume in Turkey on Friday nuclear talks last held in June. Some of the military escalation risk remained priced-in, as U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated his willingness to strike Iran should negotiations fail and U.S. warships remained in the region. Trump also announced on Monday that the U.S. tariffs on Indian imports would drop to 18% from a prior 25%, following his phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. The U.S. president said an additional 25% tariff imposed on India for its purchases of Russian oil would also be revoked, with New Delhi's agreement to buy U.S.-owned or marketed oil. Modi separately confirmed the new tariff rate of 18% but did not comment on the future of Indian oil purchases from Russia. The U.S.-India deal announcement came less than a week after the European Union announced a free trade agreement with India, which aims to double EU goods exports to the fastest growing large economy by 2032 and reduces tariffs by more than 96%. OPEC's commitment to stick to its production targets reinforced its desire for a balanced crude market, supported by OECD inventories that trail long term averages.
Oil prices climb 2% after US shoots down Iranian drone, worries about armed boats (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone and armed boats approached a U.S.-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns that talks aimed at de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could be disrupted. Brent futures rose $1.03, or 1.6%, to settle at $67.33 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.07, or 1.7%, to settle at $63.21. On Monday, both crude benchmarks had dropped more than 4% after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington. But on Tuesday, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. In the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a U.S.-flagged tanker north of Oman, maritime sources and a security consultancy said on Tuesday. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia. "The diplomatic effort to avoid a U.S. military strike in Iran is unravelling... it would appear (elements in Iran) are trying their best to sabotage the process right now," Iran was the third-biggest OPEC crude producer in 2025, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Regional power United Arab Emirates urged Iran and the U.S. on Tuesday to use the resumption of nuclear talks this week to resolve a standoff that has led to mutual threats of air strikes. Iran, meanwhile, is demanding that talks with the U.S. this week be held in Oman not Turkey, and that the scope be narrowed to two-way talks on nuclear issues only, casting doubt on whether the meeting will go ahead as planned. Oil prices had climbed further post-settlement, with Brent surpassing $68 and WTI hitting over $64 per barrel, but pared slightly after Trump said the U.S. was still negotiating with Iran. Brent was last trading at $68 per barrel, and WTI at $63.91. Oil prices also gained some support from estimates that U.S. crude stockpiles declined sharply last week. Crude inventories in the top producing and consuming nation fell over 11 million barrels last week, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Earlier on Tuesday, oil prices had gained support as a trade agreement between the U.S. and India raised hopes that global energy demand could increase, while Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine boosted worries Moscow's oil would remain sanctioned for longer. Trump's move to slash tariffs on Indian imports lifted sentiment among exporters and policymakers even as details of the agreement remained scant.Trump announced a trade deal with India on Monday to cut tariffs to 18% from 50% in exchange for New Delhi halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers. India is one of the world's biggest economies and oil importers. While the deal might appear bullish for oil, "the near-term impact will likely be on a further discount on Russian crude barrels that is unlikely to affect exit of shadow cargoes into the world market," In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia on Tuesday of exploiting a U.S.-backed energy truce to stockpile munitions, and using them to attack Ukraine a day before peace talks. The overnight attack knocked out heating in cities including the capital Kyiv as Ukrainian negotiators headed to Abu Dhabi for a second round of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks set for Wednesday and Thursday. Any delay to ending the war in Ukraine would likely keep oil prices elevated by leaving sanctions limiting Russia's oil exports in place following Moscow's 2022 invasion. Russia was the world's third-biggest crude producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to EIA data.
WTI Holds Losses As Freezing Temps Sparked Massive Drop In US Production -Crude oil prices (WTI) are trending moderately lower this morning as traders weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a report of sharply lower US stockpiles reported by API overnight. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff will hold indirect negotiations in Oman on Friday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim reported, adding talks would be “limited to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions.” “Geopolitical tensions are really driving it,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The underlying balance is a lower price than there is today, but with everything going on it’s very hard to say where this will end.”We can't help but feel like the API reporting (and very mixed picture) was related to the impact of the freezing weather across most of the country. API
- Crude -11.1mm (+700k exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline +4.7mm
- Distillates -4.81mm
DOE
- Crude -3.45mm (+700k exp)
- Cushing -743k
- Gasoline +685k
- Distillates -5.55mm - biggest draw since Feb 2021
The official data showed a sizable crude draw (but considerably less than API reported) as distillates saw their biggest drawdown since Feb 2021. Bloomberg's Will Zubanskuy notes that the largest portion of that distillates draw came from PADD 1, which includes the East Coast -- where homes in the Northeast lean on heating oil to warm their houses in frigid temperatures. Adding to the demand, diesel and oil-fired power plants start running when the grid comes under strain and some utilities begin pulling from heating oil for certain customers instead of natural gas when supply of the latter gets tight. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined for the second straight week, bringing inventories at the storage hub to around 24 million barrels.Despite the draw, levels at Cushing remain several million barrels above where they were this time last year. Gasoline stocks rose for the 12th straight week... (Graphs Source: Bloomberg) Crude production in the Lower 48 fell to the lowest since November 2024 as freezing temperatures disrupted drilling in the Permian and Bakken formations. In the past two months, output is down by 632,000 barrels a day. Overall, production has been shaved off by 4.4 million barrels since early December. Bloomberg's Alex Longley also noted another data point showing how much of this storm impact was centered on the gas side of the market rather than oil. While crude production was down 481k b/d versus a week earlier, NGL output tumbled 1.25m b/d. It’s the lowest since 2024 and the biggest weekly decline on record. WTI prices edged lower, likely driven by the smaller draw than API reported... Circling back to where we started, the bullish drop in inventories comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to run hot. While the U..S. Administration said negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will start this week, U.S. naval forces sent to the Arabian Sea off Iran shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier 500 miles off Iran's coast in the Arabian Sea, the BBC reported. As well, a U.S.-flagged merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for more than 20-million barrels per day of Persian Gulf exports, was harassed by Iranian gun boats. "Oil would be lower without Middle Eastern sabre-rattling. Post-settlement API figures, faithfully echoing the impact of the cold spell in the US, provide additional support this morning, as crude oil stocks dropped 11 million bbls. These are extraordinary days, weeks and months, in which perceived oversupply has been overwhelmingly overlooked, yet it is still able to set a price ceiling when perceived supply disruptions are in the crosshairs of investors," PVM Oil Associates noted.
Oil prices climb 3% on report US officials reject Irans request to change location of talks (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 3% on Wednesday on a report that the U.S. would not agree to change the location and format of talks with Iran planned for Friday. Brent futures rose $2.06, or 3.06%, to $69.39 a barrel at 1:09 p.m. EST (1809 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to $65.14. The U.S. has decided to reject Iran's request to change the location of talks planned for Friday, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two U.S. officials. Tehran is "fully ready to hold talks with U.S. only on nuclear issue," a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday. Both crude benchmarks have seesawed this week between news of talks to de-escalate tensions between the U.S. and Iran and heightened fears of potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Oil would be lower without Middle Eastern sabre-rattling," PVM analysts said in a note. The U.S. military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the U.S. military said. Separately, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a U.S.-flagged tanker north of Oman, maritime sources and a security consultancy said. The U.S. and Iran were due to hold talks in Oman on Friday, according to a regional official. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait of Hormuz, mainly to Asia. Meanwhile, India's Russian oil imports slipped in January, continuing a downturn that began in December, as refiners sought alternative sources due to Western sanctions pressure and ongoing U.S.–India trade talks, Reuters sources said and data showed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude stocks fell last week as a winter storm gripped large swaths of the country. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels last week, as oil output slid to the lowest level since November 2024, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 489,000-barrel rise. The gains from the oil inventories draw were likely limited as the decline was not as large as the more than 11 million-barrel decline estimated by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday
Iran FM Says Nuclear Talks With US Still On For Oman, Contradicting Earlier Reports -- Oil is spiking on the breaking headline that the White House has nuked the Iran nuclear talks: "The U.S. told Iran on Wednesday that it will not agree to Tehran's demands to change the location and format of talks planned for Friday, two U.S. officials told Axios." And more per the breaking Axios report: The official said that if the Iranians are willing to go back to the original format, the U.S. is ready to meet this week or next week. "We want to reach a real deal quickly or people will look at other options," the senior official said, alluding to Trump's repeated threats of military action. Trump officials are reportedly insisting that Iran be stripped of any missile range capable of striking Israel. Israel, meanwhile, would retain its full missile arsenal - including the undeclared nuclear weapons that everyone in the world knows about - capable of hitting Iran. Also the US wanted to talk about Iran's support to proxies in the region, but for Tehran anything outside the nuclear domain has remained a non-starter. Update(1515ET): And now a reversal, after hours ago Axios reported that talks for Oman were canceled, as the two sides couldn't come to agreement as to the scope of talks. But now Iran's foreign minister has contradicted this report... Axios itself is now reporting the opposite of its initial headline... Plans for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman on Friday are back on, after several Arab and Muslim leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away, two U.S. officials told me "They asked us to keep the… https://t.co/G4jOH9zJXn — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) February 4, 2026
Oil jumps after Trump says Iran supreme leader 'should be very worried' --Oil prices rose Wednesday after President Donald Trump said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "should be very worried." U.S. crude oil rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to close at $65.14 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent was up $2.13, or 3.16%, to settle at $69.46 a barrel. "I would say he should be very worried. Yeah, he should be," Trump told NBC News in an interview. "As you know, they're negotiating with us." The president has threatened to launch strikes on Iran if it doesn't agree to a deal governing its nuclear program. He previously threatened to intervene on the side of protestors who rose up against the Islamic Republic in January, but ultimately backed away from military action. A conflict with Iran or a collapse of the regime could disrupt crude oil supplies in the Middle East. Iran is an OPEC member and significant oil producer. But talks between the U.S. and Iran could still de-escalate tensions. Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said discussions with the U.S. on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will take place at 10 a.m. Friday in Muscat, Oman. The planned discussions were on the verge of collapsing earlier Wednesday after Washington and Tehran couldn't agree on a location and format, according to Axios. Middle Eastern leaders successfully lobbied the U.S. to not walk away from the discussions, two U.S. officials told Axios. Trump's warning comes after the U.S. military said Tuesday it shot down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. Iranian gunboats also tried to board a U.S. merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command. Iranian media said the drone was conducting routine surveillance that is permitted under international law.
Oil Tumbles 3% as Iran Focus Triggers Market Swings - Crude oil product futures tumbled about 3% in morning trade Thursday as optimism that U.S.-Iran talks would avert war between the two sides scaled down risks to Middle Eastern energy supplies. The two countries announced on Wednesday they would meet in Oman on Friday to resume negotiations discontinued since June. The U.S. says it wants to dismantle Iran's nuclear program which it fears would enable the Islamic republic to assemble an atomic bomb one day to strike at Israel. The Iranian government denies the assertion. Oil prices have swung heavily in recent days amid saber rattling by the two sides in the run-up to the talks, including incidents involving their navies in the Persian Gulf, which provides passage to a fifth of the world's crude cargoes. In the latest escalation reported on Thursday, Iran seized two foreign oil tankers, according to the Associated Press, which cited state television as claiming the vessels were smuggling fuel. The downside in oil prices was, however, limited by lower U.S. crude inventories over two consecutive weeks reported by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Commercial crude stocks dropped by 3.5 million barrels (bbl) to 420.3 million during the week ended Jan. 30, for the second consecutive week, said the EIA. The decline came in the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern, which led to production outages of approximately 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. NYMEX WTI crude futures for March delivery were down $1.75, or 2.8%, to $63.39 bbl, after a 3% rise at Wednesday's close. ICE Brent crude for April delivery fell by $1.86, or 2.7%, to $67.60 bbl. ULSD futures for March slid by $0.0789 to $2.3911 gallon, and RBOB for March delivery eased by $0.0298 to $1.9354 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.101 points to 97.590 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Oil Falls More Than 2% on Easing Supply Concerns After US, Iran Agree to Talks - (Reuters) – Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday but held close to multi-month highs after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday. Brent crude futures were down $1.54, or 2.2%, at $67.92 per barrel at 1306 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.52, or 2.3%, at $63.62. Oil prices are strongly influenced by tensions in the Middle East, with markets closely watching the talks in Oman, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The discussions come as the U.S. builds up forces in the Middle East, and regional players seek to avoid a military confrontation that many fear could escalate into a wider war. About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Other OPEC members, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, export most of their crude via the strait, as does Iran. PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said that ahead of Friday’s meeting the market would likely drift, with hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. “However, there will be no comfort as such in prices, for one untoward remark or a breakdown in talks and the Brent price will soon be banging on the door of $70 a barrel and looking at year-to-date highs,” he said. Volatility has led investors to rush to lock in oil prices this year, trading a record number of WTI Midland at Houston contracts in January, amid concerns around Middle Eastern supply risks and more Venezuelan barrels heading to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Strength in the U.S. dollar and volatility in precious metals also weighed on commodities and risk sentiment more broadly on Thursday, analysts said. On the supply side, discounts on Russian oil exports to China widened to new records this week to attract demand from the world’s top crude importer and offset the likely loss of Indian sales, traders said. This comes after a trade deal announced between the U.S. and India earlier in the week where the latter agreed to halting purchases of Russian crude. Argentina’s energy trade surplus could be higher in 2026 from records hit last year due to crude output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, in the range of $8.5 billion to $10 billion, three analysts told Reuters.
Easing U.S.–Iran Tensions and a Stronger Dollar Weigh on the Oil Market -- The crude market traded lower on Thursday as concerns over the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday. The strength in the U.S. dollar also weighed on the oil complex. The oil market traded sideways in overnight trading, posting a high of $64.67 in early morning trading as the market weighed the likelihood of escalation versus diplomacy. The market later sold off to a low of $62.65 by mid-morning and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The March WTI contract settled down $1.85 at $63.29 and the April Brent contract settled down $1.91 at $67.55. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 7.68 cents at $2.3932 and the RB market settling down 3.86 cents at $1.9266. The Iranian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson said Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has departed for the Omani capital Muscat at the head of a diplomatic delegation for nuclear talks with the U.S. due to be held on Friday. The spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said Iran will engage in the talks “with authority and with the aim of reaching a fair, mutually acceptable and dignified understanding on the nuclear issue.” Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is working hard to prevent U.S.-Iran tensions from tipping the Middle East into a new conflict, as the two adversaries signal that disagreement over Tehran’s missile arsenal threatens to collapse a deal. He added that talks at the level of the U.S. and Iranian leadership would be helpful after lower-level nuclear negotiations due in Oman on Friday. Iran and the U.S. remain at odds over Washington’s insistence that negotiations include Iran’s missile arsenal and Iran’s vow to discuss only its nuclear program, in a standoff that has led to mutual threats of airstrikes. Differences over the scope and venue for the discussions have raised doubts whether the meeting would take place, leaving open the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump could carry out a threat to strike Iran. On Thursday, United States envoy Steve Witkoff said that trilateral discussions with Russia and Ukraine were constructive and would continue in the coming weeks. He said they had wide-ranging discussions on the remaining open issues including methods to implement a ceasefire and monitor the cessation of military activities. The Trump administration said it would hold a sale of oil and gas drilling rights across 5.5 million acres of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve on March 9th. Exxon Mobil reported a unit upset at its 264,000 bpd Joliet, Illinois refinery on February 4th. United Steelworkers is asking members at BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana, to prepare for a strike or lockout.
Oil Markets Waver as Iran Prepares for Prolonged Nuclear Negotiations - Ahead of the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Friday, Tehran signaled that the negotiations will likely be a long process, dashing hopes of a quick and more sustainable de-escalation of tensions in the key oil-producing Middle Eastern regions. Oil prices initially rose early on Friday in Asian trade on the news, with Brent climbing to $68 per barrel and WTI Crude prices trading at $64 a barrel, before both fell back later in the day. Investors and speculators seemed to interpret the signals from Iran to mean the initial round of discussions in Muscat, Oman, today would only look to outline a roadmap for further negotiations and broad topics. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is already in Oman, wrote in an X post early on Friday that “Iran enters diplomacy with open eyes and a steady memory of the past year.” “We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights,” said the Iranian official, who will represent the Islamic Republic in the talk mediated by Oman.Steve Witkoff, the special envoy for U.S. President Donald Trump, will lead the U.S. delegation at the talks.“Commitments need to be honored. Equal standing, mutual respect and mutual interest are not rhetoric—they are a must and the pillars of a durable agreement,” the Iranian minister said. The main priorities for Iran in the round of talks on Friday include “assessing the other side’s goodwill and seriousness,” the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)reported. The start of a potentially long process of negotiations doesn’t allay concerns of further escalation between the United States and Iran, especially if President Trump loses patience in case of a stalemate, as it has happened in the past with U.S-Iran nuclear talAhead of the Friday talks, the U.S. Virtual Embassy in Tehran issued an alert urging U.S. citizens to “leave Iran now” and “have a plan for departing Iran that does not rely on U.S. government help.”
Oil falls as investors assess US-Iran talks - Oil prices fell on Friday as investors assessed talks between the United States and Iran that took place in Oman amid fears of another supply-disrupting Middle East conflict, according to Reuters. Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.00 a barrel by 1410 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 60 cents, or 1%, at $62.69 a barrel. Brent was down 5.2% on the week, while WTI had lost 3.7%. Iran and the United States held negotiations via Omani mediation on Friday to try to overcome over Tehran's nuclear programme. Iranian state TV reported in late afternoon that the talks had ended. Iran's foreign minister said negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations, and the talks will continue. Ahead of the talks, a lack of consensus on the agenda for the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues, while the U.S. wanted to discuss Iran's ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region. Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world's total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does fellow OPEC member Iran. If the prospect of conflict in the region eases, oil prices could decline further. Still, Kazakhstan's planned oil exports could fall by as much as 35% this month via its main route through Russia, four trading sources have told Reuters, as the giant slowly recovers from fires at power facilities in January. On a weekly basis, prices were weighed down by a broader selloff in markets and by persistent expectations of an oversupply of oil, analysts said. Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for March to around a five-year low on Thursday, marking the fourth straight month of price cuts. "The underlying fundamental backdrop is not really encouraging, it implies an oversupplied market,"
Oil prices climb on worries of possible Iran-US conflict (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses as traders worried that this week's talks between the U.S. and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries. Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 a barrel, up 50 cents, or 0.74%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 26 cents, or 0.41%, at $63.55 a barrel. In overnight trading, both benchmarks fell, but during the U.S. session both Brent and WTI rose more than $1 a barrel before moderating gains toward settlement. Iran and the U.S. held negotiations via Omani mediation to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran's nuclear program. "We keep going back and forth on this Iran situation," "It's better one day or even one hour then worse the next. It's status quo nervousness over Iran." Iranian state TV reported in late afternoon that the talks had ended. Iran's foreign minister said negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations, and the talks will continue. Ahead of the talks, a lack of consensus on the agenda for the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues, while the U.S. wanted to discuss Iran's ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region. Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world's total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does fellow OPEC member Iran. If the prospect of conflict in the region eases, oil prices could decline further. Kazakhstan's planned oil exports could fall by as much as 35% this month via its main route through Russia, four trading sources have told Reuters, as the giant Tengiz oilfield slowly recovers from fires at power facilities in January. On a weekly basis, prices were weighed down by a broader selloff in markets and by persistent expectations of an oversupply of oil, analysts said. Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for March to around a five-year low on Thursday, marking the fourth straight month of price cuts.
Saudi Arabia's Airstrikes in Yemen Killed at Least 13 Civilians in January - Airstrikes launched by Saudi Arabia in Yemen during the month of January that targeted the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) killed at least 13 civilians, according to the Yemen Data Project. The worst case of civilian deaths recorded by the YDP was a January 2 strike on a house in the city of Sayun in the Hadhramaut Governorate in eastern Yemen, which killed at least seven civilians. Another strike on a residential area in the Dhale Governorate in southwestern Yemen killed at least six civilians and wounded seven. Two civilians were also wounded by a Saudi airstrike on a military site in the Mahrah Governorate, Yemen’s easternmost province, which borders Oman.The YDP recorded a total of 12 Saudi air raids in January and three in December, which marked the first Saudi airstrikes in Yemen since Riyadh reached a ceasefire with the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, in 2022. The renewed Saudi airstrikes started after the STC began capturing territory from Saudi-backed forces in eastern and southern Yemen. Saudi-backed forces quickly routed the STC, and the group appears to have disbanded.Following Saudi Arabia’s airstrikes in Yemen, the Trump administrationapproved a $3 billion deal to sustain Riyadh’s fleet of US-made F-15 fighter jets, a key component of the Saudi Air Force. The US also approved a $9 billion sale of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia.The Saudi air war against the Houthis in Yemen from 2015 to 2022 was known for its brutality, as many strikes targeted civilian infrastructure and killed civilians. Riyadh relied on US support to sustain its air campaign, and the war also involved a blockade that the US helped enforce. According to the UN, by the end of 2021, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege.
Israel Has Killed at Least 529 Palestinians in Gaza Since Signing Ceasefire Deal: Health Ministry -Israeli forces have killed at least 529 Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire deal was supposed to go into effect in early October, Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday, as the IDF continues its constant violations of the US-backed truce.The Health Ministry said that another 1,462 Palestinians have been injured in that time, meaning there have been nearly 2,000 Palestinian casualties.The ministry’s count is based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians who arrive at hospitals, and it points out in each press release that a “number of victims are still under the rubble and in the streets, as ambulance and civil defense crews have been unable to reach them so far.” Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes targeted tents belonging to displaced people, according to the Ministry of Health, in the al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, January 31, 2026. IDF officials recently told Israeli media that the ministry’s overall death toll, which reached 71,803 on Tuesday, is accurate and acknowledged that it doesn’t include missing Palestinians presumed dead under the rubble. Several studies have concluded that the real violent death toll is likely near or over 100,000.The IDF launched more attacks in Gaza on Tuesday, which continue every day despite the US declaring the second phase of the ceasefire deal and forming the so-called “Board of Peace.”According to reports from the Strip, at least two Palestinians were killed by IDF fire on Tuesday. Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported that a young man was killed after being shot by Israeli forces in the al-Mawasi tent camp in southern Gaza.The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that a woman was killed by Israeli forces in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City. A child who was injured by an Israeli attack on al-Mawasi a day earlier also succumbed to his wounds.
Israel Forcing Doctors Without Borders To Shut Down Gaza Operations by February 28 - Israeli authorities have ordered the international medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) to cease all operations in Gaza by February 28 as Israel continues to impede humanitarian relief efforts inside the Palestinian territory.Israel said that it was shutting down MSF’s operations in Gaza due to its refusal to turn over the identities of its Palestinian staff, a requirement of Israel’s stringent new rules for NGO’s operating in the Palestinian territories, which MSF said are a clear pretext to obstruct humanitarian aid.“This is a pretext to obstruct humanitarian assistance. Israeli authorities are forcing humanitarian organisations into an impossible choice between exposing staff to risk or interrupting critical medical care for people in desperate need,” MSF said in a statement in response to the Israeli order.MSF said in a previous statement on Friday that it was prepared to handover the information about its Palestinian employees with their permission if Israel provided assurances for their safety. “However, despite repeated efforts, it became evident in recent days that we were unable to build engagement with Israeli authorities on the concrete assurances required,” the charity group said.MSF said it was asking Israel to guarantee that “any staff information would be used only for its stated administrative purpose and would not put colleagues at risk; that MSF would retain full authority over all human resource matters and management of medical humanitarian supplies, and that all communications defaming MSF and undermining staff safety would cease.”As a result of Israel not providing such assurances, MSF said it “concluded that we will not share staff information in the current circumstances. No staff information has been shared with the Israeli authorities in this process.” Since October 7, 2023, Israeli forces have killed hundreds of aid workers in Gaza.
UNICEF: Gaza’s Children Suffering a Total Collapse -The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) issued a stark statement on Saturday regarding the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in both the Gaza Strip and Sudan, warning that the situation remains extremely fragile and deadly for thousands of children. The organization said that children in Gaza continue to endure relentless airstrikes and are suffering from a comprehensive collapse of health, water, and education systems, making survival a daily struggle. These reports reflect the scale of international failure to protect the most vulnerable groups in conflict zones, where bombardment, hunger, and epidemics combine to create an environment hostile to life. UNICEF renewed its call for an immediate halt to hostilities and for the opening of safe corridors to deliver life-saving aid before it is too late in these stricken areas. Collapse of the Health System Palestinian medical sources in the Gaza Strip also reported that thousands of patients and wounded individuals are facing an unknown fate due to the collapse of the healthcare system. They explained that the remaining hospitals still operating in Gaza, which are struggling to continue providing services, have effectively become forced waiting stations for thousands of patients and injured people facing an uncertain future. They added that the catastrophic impacts of what they described as a “healthcare annihilation” have turned the continuation of medical care into a daily miracle and a major challenge to recovery efforts and the restoration of many specialized services. The sources noted that the depletion of medicines and medical supplies has turned even the most basic painkillers into a luxury unavailable to those facing death every minute. Zero-stock levels have reached 46% of the essential medicines list, 66% of medical consumables, and 84% of laboratory materials and blood bank supplies. They pointed out that cancer treatment, blood diseases, surgery, operating rooms, intensive care, and primary healthcare services are at the top of the list of sectors most affected by the crisis. The limited quantities of medicines reaching Gaza’s hospitals fall far short of actual needs to sustain healthcare services.
Samples Show Israel Mass Spraying Herbicide in Syria, Lebanon - For the past several days, Israel has been reported to be spraying “unidentified chemicals” on land in southern Lebanon, as well assouthwestern Syria’s Quneitra Governorate. The chemicals were sprayed largely over farmland in both areas.Samples taken in the Lebanese area finally answered the question of what was being sprayed, and the answer isn’t good for farmers in the area, as the areas showed they were exposed to glyphosate at heavy concentrations. Glyphosate is a broad spectrum herbicide, and while commonly used at lower levels, it has been the subject of repeated concerns worldwide because of the health risks it poses, particularly at higher doses, including likely causing cancer.Higher level concentration on farmland, particularly in the Levant, is bad news, because of the damage it does to the soil and the chelation of minerals by the chemical, which makes them no longer available for the crops. Since farmland in both of these areas are already not the richest soil in the world, this could easily do long term damage to the viability of growing crops there.Lebanese Agriculture Minister Nizar Hani warned the use of the chemicals was in keeping with an effort to create a “vegetation-free” land, and that the damage to the soil and water in the area could pose serious risk to humans.Since Israel has been pushing a plan for months to totally depopulate southern Lebanon and create a “Trump economic zone” out of the area, the deployment of chemicals that stand to poison the land and water for years to come is unlikely to appear accidental.The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor issued a statement warning the chemical spaying amounting to “large-scale destruction of private property without specific military necessity amounts to a war crime,” adding that deliberately targeting civilian farmland was a violation of international law.
Iraq Starts Investigating 1,300 ISIS Detainees the US Transferred from Syria - Iraq’s judiciary announced on Monday that it has begun investigating more than 1,300 ISIS detainees who the US recently transferred from Syria after Syrian government forces captured territory held by the Kurdish-led SDF, where the ISIS fighters were held.“Investigation proceedings have started with 1,387 members of the terrorist organization who were recently transferred from the Syrian territory,” the judiciary’s media office said in a statement. “Under the supervision of the head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, several judges specialising in counterterrorism started the investigation.”US Central Command announced on June 21 that it began an operation to transfer ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq that could lead to the movement of up to 7,000 prisoners. CENTCOM said the purpose of the transfers was to “help ensure the terrorists remain in secure detention facilities.”During fighting between the SDF and the Syrian government, which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda with a similar ideology to ISIS, there were reports of government forcesreleasing thousands of ISIS fighters from a detention facility in Hasakah, Syria, the same place where CENTCOM began transferring detainees.Despite the fact that the Syrian government is led by a former al-Qaeda commander and its militaryabsorbed many foreign jihadists, the Trump administration now says that it’s a better ally in the fight against ISIS than the SDF.US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who also serves as an envoy to Syria, said in a post on X on January 20 that the US’s new alliance with the Syrian government “shifts the rationale for the US-SDF partnership: the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-ISIS force on the ground has largely expired, as Damascus is now both willing and positioned to take over security responsibilities.”Barrack also said the Syrian government was willing to take over “control of ISIS detention facilities and camps,” though the US transferring thousands of ISIS detainees to Iraq signals it doesn’t trust HTS with that role.The US has been deeply involved in the SDF-run ISIS detention facilities in northeastern Syria, providing funding and helping with construction. Amnesty International said in a report in 2024that the SDF was responsible for torture and “mass death” that occurred in the facilities due to inhumane conditions, allegations based on testimony from people held in the prisons.At the time of the report, Amnesty said that a total of 56,000 people, including 30,000 children, 14,500 women, and 11,500 men, were being held at the facilities. The report said that many of the women are victims of human trafficking and forced marriage to ISIS members, and many detained boys and young men are victims of ISIS’s child recruitment.
Russia and Ukraine Resume Talks After a Huge Attack by Moscow - The New York Times -The second round of peace talks among Russian, Ukrainian and American officials began on Wednesday in the United Arab Emirates, following another huge Russian attack on Ukraine’s power grid early Tuesday. Negotiators spent about five and a half hours behind closed doors, and a Ukrainian official said the talks would resume on Thursday. While officials did not publicly say what was discussed, the delegations had been expected to talk about the two main sticking points in reaching a peace deal: the fate of Ukrainian-controlled territory in the east that Russia wants, and how Ukraine’s security would be guaranteed if Russia again attacks. Photographs released by the Emirati government showed Rustem Umerov, who leads Ukraine’s delegation and is the secretary of the country’s National Security Council, and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov, seated at a table with other Ukrainian officials. At another table, facing them, sat the Russian delegation, made up of military intelligence figures. At a third table between them sat the American delegation, which included Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy; Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law; and Daniel P. Driscoll, the Army secretary. “The work was meaningful and productive, with a focus on concrete steps and practical solutions,” Mr. Umerov said on social media after the meeting. The trilateral negotiations, first held Jan. 23 and 24 in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the Emirates, are the most public sign of progress so far in Mr. Trump’s push to negotiate an end to the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago. But the two sides remain far apart. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the Ukrainians hoped to use the new round of negotiations to understand Russia’s real intentions. “The Ukrainian side expects these meetings to provide clarity on the feedback the Russians will bring,” Georgiy Tykhyi, a spokesman for the ministry, said in a news briefing. “After the last round, they had time to coordinate their positions with their leadership, having heard what was discussed previously and the proposals put forward by the Ukrainian side.” The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to potential postwar security guarantees, according to Mr. Zelensky, although these have not been made public. But the Kremlin is deeply hostile to any arrangement that may include Western troops on Ukrainian soil. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia insists that as part of any peace deal, Ukraine give up not only the territory his forces have seized, but also the portion of the eastern Donetsk region that Ukraine still controls. Mr. Zelensky has said that is a non-starter. On Wednesday, shortly after the talks began in Abu Dhabi, Russian forces shelled a market in Druzhkivka, a city still under Ukrainian control in Donetsk that faces daily bombing attacks by Russia. At least six people were killed, officials said. A day before, Mr. Zelensky said on social media that Ukraine would shift its approach to the talks in the Emirates in light of the immense Russian bombardment of the Ukrainian power grid this week, although he did not say how.
Ukraine-Russia talks under way in Abu Dhabi in wake of ‘massive’ strikes on Kyiv – as it happened - Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s national security council chief and top negotiator, has confirmed in a Facebook post that the US-brokered talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Abu Dhabi have begun. His statement doesn’t reveal much, but he does say that Ukraine is working towards achieving a “dignified and lasting peace”. This is what he’s said of the meeting so far: The negotiation process started in a trilateral format – Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. Next comes work in separate groups by area, after which a follow-up joint synchronisation of positions is planned. We are working within the clear directives of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to achieve a dignified and lasting peace. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators began a second round of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi, as they sought to advance efforts to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine. The talks in the Emirati capital are expected to continue for a second day on Thursday. Attacks have continued in Ukraine, with officials reporting a “massive” drone strike in the southern region of Odesa. The Kremlin confirmed there were ongoing technical discussions between Russia and France after French president Emmanuel Macron suggested Europe should re-engage with Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin did not indicate any current dialogue between Putin and Macron. The UAE’s foreign minstry has released photographs of the second round of talks in Abu Dhabi, showing representatives of the US, Russia and Ukraine sat around a U-shaped table, with the Americans seated at the centre. Among the US reps are special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. We haven’t yet had any official statements or comments on the outcome of the meeting, but talks are expected to continue on Thursday. The first trilateral negotiations in the Emirati capital were held on 23 January and 24 January. Negotiators were expected to discuss the main sticking points in reaching a peace deal, namely Russia’s demand for Ukraine to give up land it still controls but which Moscow wants, and security guarantees for Ukraine from future Russian attacks. Rustem Umerov, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, commented earlier that his team were “working within the clear directives of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to achieve a dignified and lasting peace”.
Ukraine, Russia wrap 'productive' first day of US-backed peace talks (Reuters) - Ukrainian and Russian officials wrapped up a "productive" first day of new U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi, Kyiv's lead negotiator said on Wednesday, as fighting in Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two raged on. The two-day trilateral meetings come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had exploited a U.S.-backed energy truce last week to stockpile munitions, attacking Ukraine with a record number of ballistic missiles on Tuesday. "The work was substantive and productive, focused on concrete steps and practical solutions," Rustem Umerov, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, wrote on X. A U.S. official, who offered comment on condition of anonymity, also called the talks productive and said they would continue on Thursday morning. Zelenskiy, speaking in his nightly video address, said it was critical for the talks to lead to real peace and not offer Russia a new opportunity to continue the war. Ukraine's partners, he said, had to exert more pressure on Moscow. "It must be felt now. People in Ukraine must feel that the situation is genuinely moving toward peace and the end of the war, not toward Russia using everything to its advantage and continuing attacks," Zelenskiy said. Zelenskiy also said Ukraine expected the talks to lead to a new prisoner exchange soon. The president, interviewed by French television channel France 2, said the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed on the battlefield as a result of the war with Russia was estimated at 55,000. Zelenskiy had previously cited a figure of more than 46,000 Ukrainian servicemen killed in an interview with U.S. television network NBC in February 2025. Shortly after the talks began, Russian forces struck a crowded market in eastern Ukraine with cluster munitions, killing at least seven people and wounding 15, the Donetsk region's Governor Vadym Filashkin said. Photographs released earlier in the day by the United Arab Emirates' foreign ministry showed the three delegations sitting around a U-shaped table, with U.S. officials seated at the centre, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. In Paris, diplomatic sources said French President Emmanuel Macron's most senior diplomat, Emmanuel Bonne, met Russian officials in the Kremlin on Tuesday. One of the sources said the aim was to have dialogue on key issues, most importantly Ukraine, but did not give details beyond that. Trump's administration has pushed both Kyiv and Moscow to find a compromise to end the four-year-old war, but the two sides remain far apart on key points despite several rounds of talks with U.S. officials. "The good news is that for the first time in a very long time, we have technical military teams from both Ukraine and Russia meeting in a forum that we'll also be involved in with our experts," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Washington on Wednesday. "I don't want to say talks alone is progress, but it's good that there's engagement going on." The most sensitive issues are Moscow's demands that Kyiv give up land it still controls and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, which sits in a Russian-occupied area. Moscow wants Kyiv to pull its troops out of all the Donetsk region, including heavily fortified cities regarded as one of Ukraine's strongest defences, as a precondition for any deal. Ukraine said the conflict should be frozen along current front lines and rejects any unilateral pullback of its forces. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Russian troops would keep fighting until Kyiv made "decisions" that could bring the war to an end. Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine's national territory, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region seized before the 2022 invasion. Analysts say Russia has gained about 1.5% of Ukrainian territory since early 2024. "Russia is not winning its war against Ukraine," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told online media outlet Liga on Tuesday. Polls show that the majority of Ukrainians oppose a deal that hands Moscow more land. Kyiv residents told Reuters they were sceptical that new talks would bring a major breakthrough. "Let's hope that it will change (something), of course. But I don't believe it will change anything now," said Serhii, 38, a taxi driver. "We will not give in, and they will not give in either." The first round of talks was held in the UAE last month. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed their ties during a video call on Wednesday held in the run-up to the fourth anniversary of the war. The Kremlin said Xi, who it said supported the talks, had invited Putin to China in the coming months. Beijing has sought to cast itself as a peacemaker and is a close ally of Moscow, which is increasingly struggling to fund its vast war economy.
Rutte Says NATO Forces Will Be Deployed to Ukraine 'Instantly' Once a Peace Deal Is Signed - NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Tuesday that once a peace deal is signed between Russia and Ukraine, NATO troops will “instantly” deploy to Ukrainian territory.Russia has made clear that it would never accept a peace deal that involved NATO troops deploying to Ukraine, but the Ukrainian government and many of its Western backers, known as the “coalition of the willing,” continue to insist on it, making an agreement unlikely even though peace talks resumed in the UAE on Wednesday.“Ukraine needs strong support. The coalition of the willing has made progress on guarantees, as mentioned by Zelensky,” Rutte said during a speech to Ukraine’s parliament.“As soon as a peace deal is signed, there will instantly appear armed forces, planes in the sky, and maritime support from those in NATO who have agreed,” Rutte added.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday that if Ukraine asks for such security guarantees during talks in Abu Dhabi, the talks would make no progress.“I do not know what will be offered to our delegation in Abu Dhabi. I discussed with them yesterday the security guarantees that Mark Rutte spoke about yesterday in parliament in Kiev. If this is what the Ukrainians came to Abu Dhabi with, then this is another confirmation that Zelensky does not want peace,” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
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