natural gas price at a 14 month low; distillates supplies at 51 week high after largest fuel inventory increase in 53 weeks

natural gas price at a 14 month low; gasoline inventories at a 44 week high; distillates inventories at a 51 week high with distillates demand at a 31 week low; largest distillates and total fuel inventory increase in 53 weeks…

US oil prices finished a higher for a third consecutive week as traders struggled to sort out the implications of the sudden US takeover of Venezuelan oil output…after rising 1.0% to $57.32 a barrel last week as deterioration of peace prospects in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and US saber rattling against Venezuela and Iran offset expectations for a worsening oil glut, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery edged slightly lower as global markets opened ​on Monday, as traders weighed whether the upheaval in Caracas could meaningfully alter the supply–demand balance in a market already grappling with oversupply and subdued demand growth, and continued moving lower on concerns over sluggish demand in China, a stronger dollar and the prospect of a production revival in Venezuela, after OPEC+ had decided to keep output unchanged through the first three months of the year, but then bounced off its lows and extended its gains to almost $1.20​ and posted a high of $58.51 by mid-morning in New York after Bloomberg reported that realizing Trump’s plan for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s struggling oil industry could be a years-long and challenging process costing upwards of $100 billion, and settled $1.00 higher at $57.32 a barrel as traders realized it was a leap too far to think that all those Venezuelan barrels were going to come back to the market immediately and flood the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries with Venezuelan heavy crude….oil prices fell in Asian trading on Tuesday amid expectations of abundant global supply and weak demand, as markets assessed the potential for increased Venezuelan crude production following the U.S. abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, and settled the US session $1.19, or 2% lower at $57.13 a barrel, as traders debated the future trajectory of Venezuelan supply after Trump claimed U.S. oil companies were ready to invest in the South American country to boost its production and exports, and continued to sell off in the post settlement period on the news that the U.S. and Venezuela were in talks to export Venezuelan oil to the United States….oil prices continued to fall on global markets on Wednesday morning, on fears of a​n oil supply increase after Trump said Venezuela would send up to 50 million barrels to the United States, but bounced off its overseas low and retraced its earlier losses to post a high of $57.17 in New York amid the news that the U.S. had seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker after a more than two-week long pursuit across the Atlantic, before reversing again to settle $1.14 lower at $55.99 a barrel after traders digested Trump's deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move that would lift supplies to the world's largest oil consumer….oil prices came under renewed pressure in Asia on Thursday after Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA said talks to sell crude to the US were progressing, while signals from Washington pointed to a selective easing of sanctions that could allow Venezuelan oil back into global markets, but rose slightly on global markets, as a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories gave investors ​a reason to buy futures, then traded sharply higher in New York as the market continued to assess the developments in Venezuela, supported by the news that progress was ​being made on proposed U.S. sanctions legislation against countries doing business with Russia, and settled $1.77 or 3% higher at $57.76 a barrel, as traders worried about supplies from Russia, Iraq and Iran….oil prices continued to climb in early Asian trading on Friday morning, as the market again priced in geopolitical risk across multiple key producers and shipping routes, and moved higher ​across global markets on fears of supply disruptions in Venezuela and Iran, where civil unrest had raised concerns about production stability in one of the world’s key oil producers, and settled​ the New York session $1.36 or 2.4% higher at $59.12 a barrel, on growing supply worries linked to intensifying protests in oil-producing Iran and an escalation of attacks by Russia on Ukraine, and thus was up 3.1% on the week…

natural gas prices​, on the other hand, finished lower for the fourth time in five weeks​, as traders focused on mild short term weather forecasts amid lower spot prices….after falling 6.7% to $3.618 per mmBTU last week as near term forecasts turned warmer across most of the US, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for February delivery opened 20.4​ cents lower on Monday and tumbled to a two-month intraday low of $3.355 within minutes of the opening, as updated bearish forecasts continued to apply downward pressure on the contract over the weekend, but then gradually rose slowly throughout the session to settle 9.5 cents lower at $3.523 per mmBTU, pressured by expectations for lackluster demand amid persistently mild weather through the balance of winter…natural gas opened 16.6 cents lower on Tuesday, but stabilized at that level, as traders shook off the latest bearish forecasts in favor of hoping for a frigid back end of the month, and settled 17.3 cents lower at $3.350 per mmBTU on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected…that February gas contract opened 14 cents higher on Wednesday, as overnight forecasts had added heating demand​ to the back half of the month​​, and settled 17.5 cents higher at $3.525 per mmBTU, on a decline in output and on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand later in January…front month natural gas prices started 6.3 cents lower Thursday​, after losing ground overnight as traders chose to focus on near-term weak demand and steady production, then pulled back further following the weekly storage publication, before partially recovering near the close to settle 11.8 cents lower at $3.40 per mmBTU​, on a small rise in daily output and on forecasts for the weather to remain mostly mild over the next two weeks, keeping heating demand lower than usual…natural gas futures extended their losses early Friday, even as physical markets were edging higher, then crumbled in afternoon trading to settle 23.8 cents, or 7% lower at a 14 month low of $3.169 per mmBTU, as traders appeared unconvinced that weather for the remainder of winter would generate any meaningful demand, and thus finished 12.4% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 2nd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 119 billion cubic feet to 3,256 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 123 billion cubic feet, or 3.6% less than the 3,379 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 2nd of last year, but 31 billion cubic feet, or 1.0% more than the five-year average of 3,225 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 2nd of January over the most recent five years….the 119 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was ​a bit more than the 114 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and was much more than the 51 billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, and was also more than the average 92 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late December early January week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 2nd indicated that despite a big increase in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the 19th time in thirty-three weeks, and for the 36th time in seventy-eight weeks, due to a sizable increase in our oil exports and a sizable ​reversal ​f​rom supply to demand for oil that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,387,000 barrels per day to 6,339,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of an average of 1,133,000 barrels per day to a 58 month low during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 823,000 barrels per day to average 4,263,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,076,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 2nd, an average of 564,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 9,000 barrels per day lower at 680,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 16,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 13,811,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,567,000 barrels per day during the January 2nd reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,909,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 2nd, an average of 62,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 512,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending January 2nd averaged a rounded 171,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -171,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.…moreover, since 578,000 barrels per day of oil supplies not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 748,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are also off by that much, and also useless​, except as an indication of why this week's inventory draw appeared to be larger.... But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 512,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 547,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 35,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,976,000 barrels per day last week, which was 9.7% less than the 6,618,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 16,000 barrels per day lower at 13,811,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 9,000 barrels per day lower at 13,380,000 barrels per day, and because Alaska’s oil production was 7,000 barrels per day lower at 431,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 5.4% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 42.4% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 94.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,909,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 2nd, unchanged from the 94.7% utilization rate of the week ending December 19th, with higher utilization levels typical near year end, following the end of routine Fall refinery maintenance….the 16,909,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was barely changed from the 16,902,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending January 3rd of 2024, and less than 0.1% more than the 16,897,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 3rd, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 93.0%, a bit low​er but within the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

Even with the modest increase in the quantity of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was again somewhat lower, decreasing by 472,000 barrels per day to 9,000,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 2nd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 352,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was still 1.3% more than the 8,883,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending January 3rd of last year, and 1.3% more than the gasoline production of 8,887,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending January 3rd, 2020….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 81,000 barrels per day to 5,315,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 76,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 2.1% more than the 5,204,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 3rd of 2024, but barely changed from the 5,310,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 3rd, 2020....

Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the eighth consecutive week, and by the most in 53 weeks, increasing by 7,702,000 barrels to a 44 week high of 242,036,000 barrels during the week ending January 2nd, coming after our gasoline inventories had increased by 5,845,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased by more this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 393,000 barrels per day to 8,170,000 barrels per day, after falling by 379,000 barrels during the week ending December 26h, and even as our exports of gasoline rose by 66,000 barrels per day to 967,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 24,000 barrels per day to 549,000 barrels per day… Even after thirty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.8% ​h​igher than last January 3rd’s gasoline inventories of 237,714,000 barrels, and about 3% above the five year average for this time of year…

After this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels also rose for the eighth consecutive week, and by the most in 53 weeks, increasing by 5,594,000 barrels to a 51 week high of 129,273,000 barrels during the week ending January 2nd, coming after our distillates supplies had increased by 4,977,000 barrels during the prior week.. Combined, this week’s distillates and gasoline inventory increases add up to the largest fuel inventory increase in 53 weeks… Our distillates supplies rose by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 184,000 barrels to a 31 week low of 3,195,000 barrels per day, and even as our imports of distillates fell by 76,000 barrels per day to 207,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 1,527,000 barrels per day, after they’d fallen by 133,000 barrels per day over the week ending December 19th... With 55 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 101 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were only 0.3% more than the 128,938,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 3rd of 2024, but about 3% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after the big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, decreasing by 3,832,000 barrels over the week, from 422,888,000 barrels on December 26th to 419,056,000 barrels on January 2nd, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 1,934,000 barrels over the week ending December 26th… After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were 3% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 30% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this January 2nd were 1.1% more than the 414,642,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 3rd of 2025, but were 3.1% below the 432,403,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 5th of 2024, and 4.7% less than the 439,607,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on January 6th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

After the rig count reports of the last two week were released on Tuesdays because of the holidays, the rig count for the week ending January 9th was back on it normal Friday schedule, and hence reports the changes over the 11 days ending that date.….so for the 11 day period ending December 30th, the US rig count was down by 2, the 6th decrease in nineteen weeks, as the number of rigs targeting oil was down by three, and the count of rigs targeting natural gas was down by one, while miscellaneous rigs, which could be anything from exploratory drilling to​ waste storage wells to utility scale geothermal wells, were up by two…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 9th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 30th) and this week’s (January 9th) count, the third column shows last week’s December 30th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on December 23rd and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 10th of January, 2025…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2 Workers Die from Explosion Plugging Old Well in Ohio Wayne NF-- Marcellus Drilling News -- click for larger version -- We have some very sad news to report. Back in August, MDN reported that a crew from Monroe Drilling Operations, LLC, was working to plug an abandoned well located in Wayne National Forest (in Washington County, OH, in the “Marietta Unit”) when natural gas and crude oil traveled up through the well to the surface and ignited, causing an explosion (see 5 People Critically Injured Plugging Old Well in Ohio Wayne NF). In addition to five members of Monroe Drilling, a mineral resources inspector from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) was also on-site. All six people on-site were injured by the blast, with five of the six “critically injured.” We’re sad to report that two of the five critically injured have died.

Carroll County Commissioners Review EOG Well Pad Flash Fire Incident -- Marcellus Drilling News -- MDN previously reported news of an explosion and fire on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at an EOG Resources shale well pad located on June Road in Malvern (Carroll County), Ohio (see EOG Shale Oil Pad in Carroll County, OH Explodes During Fracking). According to the scant news we could find, a well on the pad was actively being fracked at the time of the incident. Fortunately, there were no injuries. The fire was contained to a vapor tank on the pad and extinguished quickly. The wellheads themselves were not involved or damaged. During the Dec. 18 Carroll County Commissioners meeting, the commissioners were briefed “to clear up public misconceptions about the incident.”

OH Board Rules Asphalt Supplier’s Natural Gas is Tax-Exempt - Marcellus Drilling News - An interesting case in Ohio deals with whether or not natural gas can be taxed, depending on how it’s used. The Ohio Board of Tax Appeals ruled on Tuesday, January 6, that MGQ Terminal, Inc. is exempt from use tax on natural gas purchases used to process asphalt to customer specifications. Although Tax Commissioner Patricia Harris had assessed use tax for the period between 2013 and 2016 based on the determination that the company was engaged in a storage business, the board reversed this decision, finding that the company’s activities qualify as tax-exempt “manufacturing operations.” The board held that MGQ’s use of natural gas to heat, agitate, and blend refinery waste into homogeneous, specification-compliant products constitutes a transformative manufacturing process rather than mere storage.

26 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 22 - 28 - Marcellus Drilling News - The combined number of new permits issued to drill shale wells across the Marcellus/Utica region was 26 for the week of Dec. 22 – 28, more than double the 12 issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 15 new permits, Ohio issued 6, and West Virginia issued 5. Among the companies receiving new permits were Antero, EOG, EQT, Hilcorp, INR, and Range Resources. Antero Resources | Columbiana County | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Greene County (PA) | Hilcorp Energy | Indiana County | INR/Infinity Natural Resources | Range Resources Corp | Tuscarawas County | Tyler County | Washington County

Range Well Suffers Casing Failure/Loss of Control During Fracking -- Marcellus Drilling News -- On December 17, 2025, a casing failure and loss of well control occurred at one of three wells during fracking operations at a Range Resources pad in Washington County, PA. After gas pressure spiked to 2,000 psi, the company stabilized the well and later installed two kill plugs. Despite Range sending an immediate email notification, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) cited Range for failing to use the required website portal for instant alerts. Additionally, the company missed deadlines for a mandatory Area of Review report regarding potential “communication” with other O&G wells and/or water wells in the area.

PA DEP Adopts Enviro Justice Policy as Blunt Tool Against Shale -- Marcellus Drilling News - In August 2023, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) posted an Interim Final Environmental Justice Policy to guide DEP’s permit application reviews and outreach efforts in environmental justice areas throughout the Commonwealth (see PA DEP Issues Interim “Final” Shale-Drilling-is-Racist Regulation). New Environmental Justice (or EJ) policies are a euphemism for regulations that prohibit drilling and pipelines built in neighborhoods of color or economic hardship zones because, says the left, those people can’t fight them. It is a dystopian and prejudiced view of the world. We call it “all shale drilling is racist” regulations. Completely repugnant. But the Shapiro DEP forged ahead and yesterday released a final version of these odious new policies and a new website tool to help identify EJ regions.

Will Trump Admin Challenge PA’s Odious New Enviro Justice Regs? -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The short answer to the question posed in our headline is, “We sure hope so!” Yesterday, MDN reported that the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has officially adopted a final version of updated Environmental Justice (EJ) regulations (see PA DEP Adopts Enviro Justice Policy as Blunt Tool Against Shale). The new regs clearly violate an executive order signed by President Trump in April. PA now runs the risk of (a) being sued, and (b) losing federal funds earmarked for the environment, due to its new EJ regulations.

Pa. groups appeal permit for Homer City gas power plant meant to fuel data center - The Allegheny Front --Three environmental groups are objecting to a permit granted to a proposed natural gas plant meant to power a massive data center at the site of the former Homer City coal-fired power plant. The proposed 4.4 gigawatt gas-fired plant would generate enough power for more than 3 million homes and emit more greenhouse gases each year than all the cars on Pennsylvania’s roads, according to the groups appealing the permit. Clean Air Council, PennFuture, and the Sierra Club said the state Department of Environmental Protection made several errors by granting the permit, including failure to follow its own environmental justice policy by not adequately engaging with the surrounding community and accepting flawed methodology for the amount of emissions the plant will create. They also say letting this plant go forward is a violation of the state’s Environmental Rights Amendment, which guarantees the right to a healthy environment for Pennsylvanians today and into the future. Lawrence Hafetz, legal director for Clean Air Council, said public health will suffer if the plant is allowed to be built as proposed. He said the added pollution could especially harm vulnerable groups and people with respiratory conditions, such as asthma. The appeal also said the applicant, Homer City Generation, failed to show the benefits of the project would “significantly outweigh the environmental and social costs.” “ Most of that power will likely go to the data center, which is a private company as opposed to that power going to the public grid,” said Sarah Gordon, a staff attorney at Clean Air Council. “And so there’s a really different calculation in the cost benefit analysis of that pollution.” Hafetz was critical of what he said is the DEP’s piecemeal approach to permitting. He said the power plant is only one part of the planned 3,200-acre data center campus. “ You can’t look at the environmental impacts of a project unless you look at the totality of the project,” Hafetz said. Gordon said they believe it’s DEP’s duty under the Environmental Rights Amendment to do a comprehensive review of the entire project, including water use and noise pollution. Hafetz said it appears the DEP prioritized speed over accuracy in reviewing the permit application. Gordon said a Right-to-Know request of communication about the Homer City project found that a DEP staffer said the goal was “to provide a concierge level of service.” “DEP’s job is to protect us and to protect Pennsylvania residents who are living alongside these major industrial projects. Their duty is not to be a concierge for industry,” Gordon said.

PA Dem Senator Intros 6 Bills to Block $92B Data Center Investment -- Marcellus Drilling News --January 9, 2026 Last October, a seven-member, all-Democrat group of Pennsylvania House of Representatives members announced a six-bill legislative package aimed at regulating the “responsible development” of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in the state (see PA Dems Intro Multiple Bills to Block AI Data Centers in the State). “Responsible development” is a euphemism for “no development” of new AI data centers. The proposed onerous legislation focuses on environmental and community impacts related to the centers’ water and energy use, emergency preparedness, community standards, and transparency. This week, PA State Senator Lisa Boscola of Bethlehem (near Allentown, north of Philadelphia) put out a call for a package of six bills she plans to introduce in the Senate to “protect” the good citizens of PA from data centers. Here we go again.

Post-Gazette: Pennsylvania Could Lose $200+ Million In Federal Funding For Abandoned Mine Reclamation, Plugging Conventional Oil & Gas Wells Abandoned By Their Owners Under Budget Bill Passed By US House --On January 9, Laura Legere of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the US House of Representatives Thursday passed a budget bill that cut $785 million from programs to restore abandoned coal mine lands and plug abandoned oil and gas wells saying it was “a blow to Pennsylvania efforts to clean up those scars.” If no changes are made by the US Senate, Pennsylvania could see a cut of $169 million in abandoned mine reclamation funds and a reduction of at least $24 million in funds for plugging conventional oil and gas wells abandoned by their owners.The bill shifts the abandoned mine and well cleanup funds to programs that would primarily benefit western states: wildland fire management by the Department of the Interior and general operations for the U.S. Forest Service.The Post-Gazette quoted DEP Press Secretary Neil Shader as saying, “Cutting federal funding for these projects will hurt Pennsylvania’s ability to continue its historic work to create jobs and protect public health and safety.”“DEP has made significant progress plugging more than 350 orphaned and abandoned wells,” said Shader, with 227 of those wells plugged using the infrastructure law funding. Another 43 plugging projects are currently underway.Click Here to read the full article. [PDF of Article] Kurt Klapkowski, Director of DEP's Bureau of Oil and Gas Planning and Program Management, told the PA Grade Crude Development Advisory Council December 4 the chaos surrounding the federal budget in 2025 had a major impact on the well plugging program.“There's been a pretty significant hiring freeze in place given the chaos at the federal level with the budget, and then the state budget impasse this year. Our human resources department has basically locked down any hiring. So, we’ve got significant vacancies.”“We didn’t know, honestly, six months ago if the [federal Bipartisan] Infrastructure Act was going to continue to be funded at all.”He added-- “I feel a lot better about where we are today. I feel a lot better about the assurances that we've gotten from the federal government. This funding is not going to be cut off.” Read more here.Obviously, there was no warning the US House would act to cut off funding for plugging wells and reclaim abandoned mines.

DEP Invites Comments On Renewal Of Title V Air Quality Permit For 750 MW Marcus Hook Energy Natural Gas Power Plant, Delaware County -- The Department of Environmental Protection invites comments on the renewal of the Title V Air Quality Permit for the 750 MW natural gas-fired Marcus Hook Energy power plant in Marcus Hook Borough, Delaware County. (PA Bulletin, page 8784) No public hearing has been scheduled, but one may be requested. Comments are due January 26 -- 30 days from notice. Comments should be sent to: Janine Tulloch-Reid, Facilities Section, Air Quality Program, at DEP Southeast Regional Office, 2 East Main Street, Norristown, PA 19401 or at RA-EPSEROAQPUBCOM@pa.gov.Documents related to the application are available for public review by contacting Janine Tulloch-Reid at 484-250-5920 or at RA-EPSEROAQPUBCOM@pa.gov or jtullochre@pa.gov.Read the entire PA Bulletin notice for more information. (PA Bulletin, page 8784)

Xpress Natural Gas Truck Hauling CNG Catches Fire on NY Thruway -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Photo from viewer of tractor-trailer fire on Thruway, courtesy WHEC-TV (click for larger version) At 9 a.m. Tuesday morning, an Xpress Natural Gas (XNG) tractor-trailer carrying a full load of compressed natural gas (CNG) canisters caught fire on the New York Thruway (I-90) in Montgomery County, triggering a hazardous materials emergency and closing the highway between Little Falls and Canajoharie. The intense blaze required firefighters to call in water tankers from surrounding areas due to a lack of local hydrants. Following federal safety protocols, authorities evacuated 165 residents within a one-mile radius of the scene. The situation was successfully brought under control by 11 a.m., allowing residents to return home. Fortunately, there were no injuries. The question is, why did the rig catch on fire? And, did any of the CNG canisters explode?

Antis, Township Sue to Block Iroquois Compressor Expansion in CT -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Iroquois Gas Transmission’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project would increase horsepower at three compressor stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, to flow more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. The two NY compressors are in Dover and Athens. The CT compressor is located in Brookfield. In September, we told you that the Sierra Club paid for a fake study bashing the Connecticut portion of the project (see Antis Attack Iroquois Plan to Expand Connecticut Compressor Stn). The left continues its attack. A Big Green puppet group, Save the Sound, along with the Town of Brookfield, is using Connecticut’s Superior Court to try to block the project. Read More

Northeast Gas Demand Started New Year with a Bang - Demand for natural gas in the Northeast was 2.1 Bcf/d higher for the week ended January 6 relative to the prior week. The region’s weekly gas demand averaged 33.1 Bcf/d, with the peak daily demand of 34.9 Bcf/d occurring on New Year’s Day. The 2.1 Bcf/d week-on-week increase in total demand was driven by a 2.2 Bcf/d week-on-week Res/Comm demand jump that coincided with cold Northeastern weather. However, forecasts call for the weather to warm considerably in the coming week. As seen in the dotted dark-purple line in the graph below, our models predict that Northeast demand will be below the 5-year minimum from Wednedsay through Saturday of this week. For the week ended January 6, the demand surge led to a tighter gas balance and a 0.6 Bcf/d week-on-week decline in net outflows to other regions. Outflows on the Southeast/Gulf corridor fell by 0.8 Bcf/d to 6.6 Bcf/d as Transco averaged only 37% full heading south of Station 165 into North Carolina. Outflows to the Midwest were up 0.2 Bcf/d to 5.3 Bcf/d, led by a 0.3-Bcf/d increase on Rockies Express. Meanwhile, net inflows from Canada were flat at 1.1 Bcf/d.

Higher Prices, Better Economics Could Find More Appalachian Natural Gas Fueling LNG Exports --Skyrocketing demand on the Gulf Coast, driven primarily by LNG exports, is likely to necessitate an increase in southbound natural gas flows from the Appalachian Basin.Chart showing NGI’s forward fixed natural gas prices for Henry Hub and Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt from February 2026 through November 2035, highlighting recurring seasonal price spikes with Henry Hub generally trading above Texas Eastern M-2, with prices ranging roughly from $2.00/MMBtu to $4.75/MMBtu.At A Glance:
Production expected to grow by over 50%
Haynesville, Permian volumes could fizzle
Higher prices could incentivize more pipelines

Propane Inventories Draw, but Stocks Remain Historically High --The EIA reported a 2.2 MMbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories, exceeding industry expectations for a 1.8 MMbbl decline but falling short of the average draw for the week of 2.4 MMbbl. Despite the draw, total inventories remain 19% higher than the same period last year. U.S. propane inventories remain well above historical norms, with the majority of the recent draw occurring in PADDs 1, 2, 4, and 5. Total U.S. propane/propylene stocks stand at 98.1 MMbbl (red line in chart below), which is 15.5 MMbbl above the same week in 2025 (blue line) and above the five-year maximum. Inventories are also 23 MMbbl, or 31%, above the five-year average.The chart below illustrates days of supply using the EIA’s methodology, which divides total stocks by the four-week average of “product supplied,” a proxy for domestic demand. On this basis, days of supply are estimated at about 83 days (red line), roughly 20 days higher than the same week in 2025 and above the five-year maximum, marking the highest days-of-supply level for this week on record. This highlights the extent to which inventories remain elevated relative to recent demand levels.

Lee County, NC Residents Duped into Opposing Gas Well, Data Center --- Marcellus Drilling News --Deep River Data, a company with connections to the cryptocurrency industry, wants to drill for natural gas in Lee County, North Carolina. However, production from the well would not be used to power crypto mining, but instead to fuel an AI data center. If approved, the project would be the first commercial well drilled into the Triassic Basin, a natural gas repository underlying North Carolina and other Eastern Seaboard states. The planned well is conventional, not shale, so itinvolves no (or very little) fracking. Yet lefty environmentalists have whipped up opposition from the locals by urging them to “ban fracking.”

Texas Eastern Line 31 Expansion Project to Feed MS Power Plant-- Marcellus Drilling News -- Another new (to us) pipeline project in the Southeast with the potential to flow Marcellus/Utica molecules. We recently became aware of Enbridge’s Texas Eastern Line 31 Expansion Project. The project is designed to expand the capacity of the Texas Eastern (TETCO) interstate natural gas system in Madison County, Mississippi. The current proposal (not yet officially filed with FERC) includes approximately 10.2 to 11.5 miles of 36-inch-diameter pipeline looping, a 1.7-mile delivery lateral, and the construction of the new Ridgeland Compressor Station. The project is expected to provide between 125,000 and 160,000 dekatherms per day (Dth/d) of additional natural gas transportation capacity, primarily intended to serve Entergy’s proposed Ridgeland Advanced Power Station (gas-fired power station) in Madison County

EOG’s 2026 Outlook Shaped by LNG Growth, Regional Natural Gas Dynamics - Houston’s EOG Resources Inc. is heading into 2026 leaning on growing natural gas demand from LNG exports and power generation, while keeping a tight grip on capital spending and efficiencies in the Lower 48, a top executive said this week. Map illustrating EOG Resources’ diverse U.S. marketing strategy, highlighting oil, natural gas, and NGL sales markets across the Permian, Gulf Coast, Rockies, Midwest, Northeast, West Coast, and Southeast, with access to Henry Hub, Waha, CIG, Chicago, SoCal Border, Agua Dulce, and LNG export corridors.At A Glance:
Power generation drives incremental gas use
Capital spending trimmed
Oil oversupply pressures prices near term

Carnival LNG Offtake Deal Advances Stabilis’ Planned Galveston Bunkering Hub -Stabilis Solutions Inc. has landed an agreement to supply LNG to a major cruise line, securing its second long-term agreement for a developing bunkering project in Galveston, TX. At A Glance:

• Carnival marks second long-term customer
• Stabilis has covered 55% of capacity
• LNG demand for marine fuel expected to accelerate

Lake Charles LNG Project Still Alive With Talks for Potential Sale Said Advancing --At least two buyers, including MidOcean Energy LLC, have been lined up to purchase Energy Transfer LP’s (ET) Lake Charles LNG project after it suspended development last month. The sales and purchase agreements that ET has already signed would be transferred to those buyers along with the site and other assets held by ET subsidiaries, sources with knowledge of the matter told NGI.

Mild U.S. Weather Cuts Heating Demand While LNG Exports Appear Muted - Forecasts show weather patterns are setting up for a warmer-than-average January in North America, leaving U.S. exporters to seek opportunities in a seemingly well-supplied global market. Four-panel chart showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures versus normal for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo, with daily mean temperatures tracking seasonal warming into summer and cooling into winter, measured in °Fahrenheit, based on NGI calculations and Bloomberg data as of Jan. 5, 2025. At A Glance:
Early January temperatures near record highs
Warm Texas, Louisiana favor liquefaction operations
Asian LNG imports near multi-year lows

U.S. Natural Gas Outpacing Oil Demand as Data Centers, LNG Seen Lifting ‘26 Outlook - After a year marked by macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical volatility and tighter margins, the U.S. oil and natural gas industry has shown resilience by doubling down on innovations, capital discipline and efficiency, according to a Deloitte expert. U.S. map showing GW-scale data centers expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, highlighting major projects by companies such as AWS, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI across regions including Texas, the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and West, with bubble sizes indicating capacity ranging from about 1,000 MW to 4,500 MW, sourced from Grid Strategies LLC. At A Glance:
LNG exports expanding through 2026
Permian oil slowdown risks associated gas volumes
Infrastructure spending tops $35 billion

Data Centers ‘Playing Second Fiddle’ to LNG as Haynesville, Permian Ramp up Natural Gas Supply - Although data centers seem to capture all the headlines, LNG is poised to drive the bulk of U.S. natural gas demand growth this year, with incremental supply mostly coming from the Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin. Line chart showing NGI’s forward look basis prices in $/MMBtu for Houston Ship Channel, Katy, and Waha from February 2026 through February 2028, with Houston Ship Channel and Katy trading near flat to slightly negative, while Waha remains deeply discounted below minus $3/MMBtu in early 2026 before gradually improving toward around minus $1/MMBtu by late 2027. At A Glance:
LNG to lead demand growth
Data center outlook less certain
Permian decongestion seen flattening basis spreads

LNG market moves from famine to feast on wave of new supply - A record-breaking surge in liquefied natural gas supply is creating a long-term buyers’ market, marking a major shift from the post-Ukraine invasion shortage. Global output rose 6% in 2025, with massive projects in Texas and Qatar poised to add capacity equivalent to 11% of global exports. This supply glut is driving spot prices to year-long lows, allowing developing nations like Vietnam and India to secure fuel to meet rising electricity demand and displace coal. As supply growth outpaces demand through the decade’s end, energy majors are increasingly targeting Southeast Asia to find new buyers for this surplus fuel.

Record Broken in 2025: U.S. First Country to Export 100 MMT of LNG - Marcellus Drilling News - In 2025, the United States became the first nation to exceed 100 million metric tons (mmt) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports annually, reaching a record 111 mmt. This 24% year-on-year growth, fueled by high terminal utilization and the rapid ramp-up of facilities like Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant, solidified the U.S. as the world’s leading exporter over Qatar. Europe remains the primary market as it shifts away from Russian energy, while shipments to Turkey and Egypt also stayed strong. Experts anticipate further growth in 2026 as new projects, including the Golden Pass LNG venture, begin production.

More U.S. LNG Growth Expected After Record-Breaking Year --U.S. LNG feedgas demand ended 2025 with record-breaking growth, and 2026 started with the same momentum. Last week, U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged about 19.3 Bcf/d, up 0.8 Bcf/d week-on-week, with all terminals operating at or above nameplate capacity and most at winter peak levels. The levels now are about 5 Bcf/d higher than a year ago, when feedgas demand hovered around 14 Bcf/d. See the far left-hand side of the chart below in January 2025 compared to the right-hand side of the chart in January 2026. Intake at the commissioning Plaquemines was back above 4 Bcf/d, after being around 3.8 Bcf/d for most of December. The terminal is operating at peak levels. Venture Global is currently marketing all cargoes produced at Plaquemines itself and will continue to do so until at least the middle of this year. Feedgas demand will continue to grow this year and we expect more records to take place. Intake at Corpus Christi will rise and Golden Pass will soon take significant feedgas volumes. So far, Golden Pass has only taken minuscule amounts of feedgas, but that is expected to change this month as the terminal prepares to start up. For more insights on the U.S. LNG Feedgas industry, check out our LNG Voyager Weekly Report.

U.S. LNG Profits Exposed as Market Again Shifts, Global Natural Gas Prices Converge - A wave of global LNG supply and increasing natural gas demand in the United States are pushing international price benchmarks closer together, creating new opportunities and more volatility for U.S. energy exports. Line chart showing NGI’s prompt-month Henry Hub natural gas futures versus JPN/KOR (JKM) and TTF futures prices from 2026 through 2030, with Henry Hub trading near $3–$4/MMBtu and international benchmarks ranging roughly from $7–$10/MMBtu. At A Glance:
JKM, TTF near parity in 2026
Henry Hub sees sustained rise through 2030
Shipping, feed gas costs threaten affordability

Prospects Dim for U.S. LNG Projects Left Behind in 2025, but Some Still Close to Reaching FID - While 2025 was a banner year for new North American LNG projects, a coterie of U.S. projects that were considered close to advancing have seen their timelines for final investment decisions (FID) slip into the new year. Global LNG capacity under development by region, highlighting North America’s growing share in recent years. At A Glance:
FIDs delayed for U.S. projects
Most targeting 1Q2026 to advance
Market shifting into oversupply

Clearer Timeline Emerges for Next Wave of U.S. LNG Projects as Buildout Hits Overdrive - LNG exports are expected to be the biggest growth driver of the U.S. natural gas market in 2026 with output soaring and two more facilities expected to enter service. Chart showing North America operational and sanctioned LNG facility peak export capacity rising from near zero in 2016 to more than 35 Bcf/d by the early 2030s, highlighting major U.S. projects including Sabine Pass, Freeport LNG, Corpus Christi, Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines LNG, Golden Pass, Port Arthur LNG, Louisiana LNG, Rio Grande LNG, and Energia Costa Azul, compiled by NGI using DOE and EIA data. At A Glance:
CCL Stage 3, Golden Pass next up
New capacity could be online by June
Biggest pipeline buildout in a decade coming

Will Henry Hub Premium Hold? Natural Gas Outlook Still Murky --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, in which NGI’s Christopher Lenton, managing editor of Mexico, and Patrick Rau, senior vice president of research and analysis, sit down to discuss the natural gas market in a shifting supply landscape.While industry sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, the discussion explores a critical tension. Can a 6% Henry Hub price premium survive the current storage surplus on top of the unpredictability of winter weather?From the massive growth in LNG exports to the regulatory hurdles facing power generation and data center expansion, the conversation delves into whether North American producers can ramp up production in time to meet the 4 Bcf/d demand surge projected for the coming year.

New Year Starts With a Whimper for Sinking Global Natural Gas Prices -Ample LNG and pipeline supplies have offset the frigid weather gripping Europe as the new year gets underway, keeping global natural gas prices under pressure despite colder conditions.
European Union natural gas storage chart showing gas in storage at 691.8 TWh and inventories 60.5% full as of Jan. 3, 2025, compared with five-year averages and prior-year levels, highlighting tighter EU gas balances during winter. At A Glance:
Supplies strong in Europe, Asia
LNG offsetting arctic air in Europe
Maduro’s capture didn’t move energy markets

Henry Hub & Appalachian Spot Prices Crash; Futures Price Down, Too --- Marcellus Drilling News -- Henry Hub spot gas prices “collapsed to $2.86 per MMBtu” on Monday. Less than a month ago, on Dec. 8, the HH spot price was $5.01. Yeah, that constitutes a collapse! What about across the Marcellus/Utica region? The Appalachian Regional Average yesterday (as near as we can tell) was $2.28/MMBtu, down from $4.80 on Dec. 8. Also a collapse. Why the drop in the M-U? We’ll tackle some reasons below. What about the NYMEX futures price for natgas? That price was $3.35 yesterday, down for the fifth consecutive trading session and the lowest since Oct. 28.

Henry Hub Spot Gas Prices 'Collapse' | Rigzone- In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted that Henry Hub spot gas prices “collapse[d] to $2.86 per MMBtu [million British thermal units]” on Monday. “Physical natural gas prices are crashing, with Henry Hub spot prices trading at a mere $2.86 per MMBtu yesterday,” Rubin stated in the report. “Last month, December 2025 averaged $4.13 per MMBtu - and yesterday’s $2.86 average sits 45 cents (-14 percent) below even subdued physical pricing over an extraordinarily mild Christmas holiday,” he added. “Regionally, while extended cold in the Northeast has Algonquin City Gates at $9.91 per MMBtu, prices have fallen apart to just $2.02 per MMBtu in the Rockies. Houston Ship Channel traded at $1.78 per MMBtu - nearing levels often associated with price-induced shut-ins during the lower demand shoulder season,” Rubin warned. “Daily demand is expected to average 2.3 Bcfpd [billion cubic feet per day] lower on Wednesday-Friday than during today’s session, implying continued pressure on spot prices likely to bleed into the NYMEX futures market,” he continued. In the report, Rubin noted that the NYMEX front-month contract “tested as low at $3.355 [per MMBtu] yesterday before finding support and rallying 17 cents into the close”. “While technicals attempted to fill the gap down at the open, however, the near-term outlook (i) continues to bleed heating demand and (ii) may be weighed down by Henry Hub spot market collapse to $2.86 per MMBtu,” he added. The EBW report highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.523 per MMBtu on Monday. It outlined that this was a 9.5 cent, or 2.6 percent drop, from Friday’s close. In the report, Rubin said “weather driven demand will weaken further into Friday’s record warmth”, adding that “next week’s national gHDD total may approximate Week 1”. “Eventually, a colder back half of January remains on tap - but even that may do little to offset blowtorch early-month warmth eviscerating January gHDDs to the third warmest since 2017,” he added. In Tuesday’s report, EBW predicted a “test lower and rebound” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and an “upside cold dependent” trend over the next 30-45 days. In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin outlined that “mild weather forecasts” were “refashion[ing] [the] January natural gas outlook”. “Weather forecasts continued to melt down over the weekend, sending natural gas hurtling lower. While January is barely 100 hours old, DTN’s forecast has already shed 55 gHDDs and 85 Bcf [billion cubic feet],” Rubin said in that report. “Other widely followed meteorologists predict even larger gHDD losses,” he stated. In that report, Rubin warned that “daily demand may lose another nine Bcfpd into Friday’s record warmth” and added that “weather has amplified bearish technicals with risks of the February contract falling to $3.25”. Rubin went on to state in that report that “weather normalized fundamentals are stout”, noting that “weekly average production readings stumbled two Bcfpd to open 2026, virtually erasing supply gains since Thanksgiving”. “Weekly LNG feedgas reached a record 19.9 Bcfpd. Both offer a degree of fundamental support,” he said. “In the middle of winter, however, weather remains king. Chances for a sharply colder back half of January could still spark upside, and more than half of winter remains ahead,” Rubin pointed out. “If forecasts cannot arrest gHDD declines, however, bulls will run out of time before the March contract becomes the NYMEX front-month in just three weeks,” Rubin warned. EBW highlighted in Monday’s report that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.618 per MMBtu on Friday. This was down 6.8 cents, or 1.8 percent, from Thursday’s close, the report outlined. In Monday’s report, EBW predicted a “volatile pattern continues” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and an “upside cold dependent” trend over the next 30-45 days.

US natgas futures slide 5% to 10-week low as mild winter weather curbs demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a 10-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.3 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $3.350 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 28. That put the front month down for a fifth day in a row for the first time since June and pushed it into technically oversold territory for the first time in two weeks. The decline in futures also helped reduce the stock prices of the two biggest U.S. gas producers, Expand Energy and EQT, by over 1% to their lowest levels since October. In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the first time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. That compares with an average of $1.15 per mmBtu in 2025 and $2.88 during the past five years (2021-2025). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of around 108.0 bcfd on Tuesday due in part to declines in Louisiana and Texas, down from 109.3 bcfd on Monday and a daily record high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 21, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 130.8 bcfd this week to 132.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.7 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.4 bcfd in December.

US natgas futures jump 5% on forecasts for seasonally cold weather in late January (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Wednesday on a decline in output and forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand later in January. Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $3.525 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest price since October 28. Looking ahead, however, the 12-month futures strip NG12Mst fell to $3.46 per mmBtu, its lowest price since December 2024. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of around 108.1 bcfd on Wednesday, due in part to declines in Arkansas and Texas, down from 108.5 bcfd on Tuesday and a daily record high of 111.1 bcfd on December 21, according to LSEG data. Despite a slight cooldown in the forecasts, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 22, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 131.2 bcfd this week to 132.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December. Gas was trading around $10 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. Global prices have declined to multi-month lows over the past month or so on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. Such a development could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

US natural gas futures dip 3% on forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday on a small rise in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain mostly mild over the next two weeks, keeping heating demand lower than usual. Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.8 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $3.407 per million British thermal units. Futures fell despite a federal report showing last week's storage withdrawal was bigger than usual for this time of year, near-record liquefied natural gas exports, and - despite the current mild weather - forecasts for seasonally cold weather and higher demand for at least a few days in late January. The decline in futures also helped reduce the stock prices of the two biggest U.S. gas producers to their lowest levels since October, with Expand Energy down about 2.8% and EQT down about 3.9%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 119 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 2. That was slightly bigger than the 114 bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with a decline of 51 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 92 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the second time this month as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. Negative prices have caused Waha prices to average negative 73 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with an average of $1.15 per mmBtu in 2025 and $2.88 during the past five years (2021-2025). Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025. Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 132.0 bcfd this week to 133.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high average of 18.4 bcfd in December.

Hold On ... I’m Comin’ – Producers, Midstreamers Preparing for Rising Tide of Permian-Sourced NGLs | RBN Energy -- Even if Permian crude oil production were to stagnate over the next few years — a big if — the region’s output of NGLs would likely increase by half, from the current 3.2 MMcf/d to about 4.8 MMcf/d in 2030. NGL shippers, all too aware of the double-barrel impacts of the Permian’s rising gas-to-oil ratios (GORs) and rising gallons of NGLs per Mcf of gas, have been supporting the development of new pipeline capacity from West Texas to the Gulf Coast, most recently evidenced by the plan to expand the throughput of the Bahia NGL Pipeline to a cool 1 MMb/d. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the ongoing buildout of NGL pipeline capacity out of the nation’s largest NGL production area.As we said a few months ago in Don’t Worry, Be Happy, the stresses on crude-oil-focused drilling in the Permian — especially the ramp-up in OPEC+ production and the slump in WTI prices — have led at least some NGL folks to wonder what a leveling off (or an outright decline) in Permian crude production would mean for the volumes of mixed NGLs (Y-grade) being piped to fractionation hubs. We noted that while U.S. oil production has increased by more than 160% since 2008 and natural gas output has nearly doubled, the volume of Y-grade produced at gas processing plants has quadrupled, from 1.8 MMb/d 17 years ago to 7.3 MMb/d today.The Permian accounts for more than 40% of that NGL total because oil-focused drilling in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico generates vast amounts of NGL-saturated associated gas. And this is all-important: Over the past 10-plus years, the Permian’s GOR has increased from about 3.4:1 to 4.2:1, and the gallons of NGLs per Mcf of gas has risen from about 4.5 to 5.2. This trend toward gassier, more NGL-packed production continues, and we’ve calculated that — if you assume the basin’s average GOR continues to increase by 4% annually and that its average GPM rises by 4.5% a year — the Permian’s NGL output is almost sure to keep climbing even under the bleakest crude oil production scenario.More specifically, continued gradual growth in Permian oil production (to nearly 8 MMb/d in 2030) would lead to 5.8 MMb/d of NGL output in 2030 (up 2.6 MMb/d from current levels), flat oil production (as we said in the intro to today’s blog) would boost NGL production to about 4.8 MMb/d that year, and even a 5%/year decline in oil production would leave the Permian’s NGL output about 500 Mb/d higher than it was in 2025. (In other words, at about 3.7 MMb/d.) With that near certainty of a significant increase in Permian NGL volumes, Y-grade shippers of all stripes (producers, marketers, fractionators, etc.) have been supporting the development of new NGL pipeline capacity from West Texas to fractionation centers along the Texas coast. This rising tide of NGLs also has been attracting new entrants to this space. The most recent example is ExxonMobil’s November 20 announcement that it had reached an agreement to acquire a 40% undivided interest in Enterprise Products Partners’ new 550-mile, 600-Mb/d Bahia NGL Pipeline from West Texas’s Ector County to the Mont Belvieu fractionation hub east of Houston (green line in Figure 1 below). The Bahia Pipeline is just beginning commercial service. As part of the ExxonMobil/Enterprise deal, which is expected to close in the next few weeks, Bahia’s capacity will be increased by 400 Mb/d by Q4 2027 and ExxonMobil will build a 92-mile pipeline connection (dashed red-and-black line) — to be known as the Cowboy Connector — between its Cowboy Central Delivery Point (CDP; yellow star) in southeastern Eddy County, NM, and Bahia’s current origination point. Enterprise will serve as operator of the combined Cowboy/Bahia system.ExxonMobil’s XTO Energy subsidiary owns and operates the Cowboy CDP, an oil and gas complex in the Northern Delaware Basin with 1.2 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity as well as 600 Mb/d of oil processing capacity and 1.2 MMbbl of onsite oil storage capacity. In a statement, ExxonMobil said the Bahia investment and Cowboy Connector will “improv(e) logistics flexibility associated with our growing Permian production in the Delaware and Midland basins.” The parent company said in a December 5 presentation that it expects to produce about 1.8 MMboe/d in the Permian in 2026 and to increase its output there to 2.5 MMboe/d by 2030.In addition to the Bahia Pipeline, Enterprise has interests in other pipelines that transport NGLs out of the Permian, including a 67% stake in the Shin Oak NGL Pipeline (yellow; Kinetik owns the rest) and all of the Mid-American Pipeline (MAPL; purple and orange lines) and Seminole (magenta line) systems.Other big Permian NGL takeaway projects are in the works too. For example, Targa Resources in February 2025 announced plans for Delaware Express, a 100-mile, 30-inch-diameter NGL pipeline (dashed yellow-and-black line in Figure 2 below) that in Q2 2026 will expand and expedite Y-grade flows from the company’s growing fleet of processing plants in the Delaware Basin to Targa’s 1-MMb/d Grand Prix/Daytona NGL pipeline system (blue line), which transports NGLs to Mont Belvieu. Then, in September 2025, Targa said it also will build the Speedway NGL Pipeline (dashed black-and-white line), a ~500-mile, 30-inch conduit that will run from the heart of the Midland Basin (and the terminus of Delaware Express) to Mont Belvieu, part of it alongside Grand Prix/Daytona and the rest along a new right of way. Speedway’s initial capacity will be 500 Mb/d but Targa noted it will be expandable to 1 MMb/d; that would push the company’s total NGL takeaway capacity out of the Permian to more than 2 MMb/d. And then there’s Phillips 66’s Coastal Bend NGL Pipeline (blue line in Figure 3 below), which until the company’s April 2025 purchase of the facility was known as the EPIC NGL Pipeline. Soon thereafter, Phillips 66 completed an expansion of the pipeline’s capacity to 225 Mb/d (from the original 175 Mb/d); a further expansion to 350 Mb/d is slated to come online in Q4 2026. Phillips 66 also owns the 1,400-mile Sand Hills Pipeline (green line), which transports up to 500 Mb/d of Y-grade from the Permian and the Eagle Ford to the Sweeny, TX, and Mont Belvieu fractionation hubs. Also, through its 50/50 Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem) JV, Phillips 66 holds a half-interest in the two-part CPChem Line EZ system (red line), whose pipes run from (1) Artesia, NM, to Benedum, TX, (where CPChem owns an NGL salt-dome cavern to support the pipeline’s operations) and (2) from Benedum to CPChem’s fractionation, storage and steam-cracker complex in Sweeny. (The latter pipe’s capacity is 100 Mb/d.)

Record $9.6M fine for Third Coast after substantial oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico - Pipeline safety regulators on Monday assessed their largest fine ever against the company responsible for leaking 1.1 million gallons of oil into the Gulf off the coast of Louisiana in 2023. But the $9.6 million fine isn’t likely to be a major burden for Third Coast to pay.This single fine is close to the normal total of $8 million to $10 million in all fines that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration hands out each year. But Third Coast has a stake in some 1,900 miles of pipelines, and in September, the Houston-based company announced that it had secured a nearly $1 billion loan.Pipeline Safety Trust Executive Director Bill Caram said this spill “resulted from a company-wide systemic failure, indicating the operator’s fundamental inability to implement pipeline safety regulations,” so the record fine is appropriate and welcome.“However, even record fines often fail to be financially meaningful to pipeline operators. The proposed fine represents less than 3% of Third Coast Midstream’s estimated annual earnings,” Caram said. “True deterrence requires penalties that make noncompliance more expensive than compliance.”The agency said Third Coast didn't establish proper emergency procedures, which is part of why the National Transportation Safety Board found that operators failed to shut down the pipeline for nearly 13 hours after their gauges first hinted at a problem. PHMSA also said the company didn't adequately assess the risks or properly maintain the 18-inch Main Pass Oil Gathering pipeline.The agency said the company “failed to perform new integrity analyses or evaluations following changes in circumstances that identified new and elevated risk factors” for the pipeline.That echoed what the NTSB said in its final report in June, that “Third Coast missed several opportunities to evaluate how geohazards may threaten the integrity of their pipeline. Information widely available within the industry suggested that land movement related to hurricane activity was a threat to pipelines.”The NTSB said the leak off the coast of Louisiana was the result of underwater landslides, caused by hazards such as hurricanes, that Third Coast, the pipeline owner, failed to address despite the threats being well known in the industry.A Third Coast spokesperson said the company has been working to address regulators' concerns about the leak, so it was taken aback by some of the details the agency included in its allegations and the size of the fine.“After constructive engagement with PHMSA over the last two years, we were surprised to see aspects of the recent allegations that we believe are inaccurate and exceed established precedent. We will address these concerns with the agency moving forward," the company spokesperson said.

USGC 3-2-1 Crack Spread Reflects Higher Diesel, Lower Gasoline --The U.S. Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread is near $18.33/bbl. Over the most recent period, the diesel crack increased from approximately $25.45/bbl on December 29 to $27.68/bbl on January 5, while gasoline cracks declined almost continuously since the start of December, reaching $13.66/bbl on January 5. Recent movements in the USGC 3-2-1 crack spread coincide with higher diesel cracks and lower gasoline cracks over the period. As of January 5, there was a $14/bbl difference between diesel and gasoline cracks on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Holiday Demand Weakness Drives Motor Gasoline Inventory Build - The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report released this morning points to a loosening in U.S. motor gasoline balances for the week ending January 2, 2026. As highlighted in our Crude Billboard, implied motor gasoline demand declined by nearly 400 Mb/d last week, reflecting typical holiday-related consumption weakness around the New Year. Against this backdrop, total motor gasoline inventories (red line in the chart below) recorded a 7.7 MMbbl build, with the bulk of the increase concentrated in PADDs 2 and 3. Midwest gasoline stocks rose nearly 3.6 MMbbl, the largest weekly build for the region since January 2022. Meanwhile, Gulf Coast inventories increased by 2.3 MMbbl, lifting regional stocks to their highest level since January 2020. Going forward, it will be important to monitor whether supply-side momentum outpaces near-term demand, adding further pressure to gasoline markets.

Glenfarne Goes for Gold to Strengthen Alaska LNG Economics - The developer of the Alaska LNG export terminal is pursuing a deal to supply natural gas to one of the largest gold mining operations in the state as a part of its strategy to improve the economics of the massive project. At A Glance:

• Deal covers up to 50 MMcf/d gas supply
• 315-mile pipeline, power plant proposed
• First phase serves in-state demand

LNG Canada Ramp-Up to Drive Record January Exports, Boost Natural Gas Demand -As the second train at LNG Canada restarts, exports from the country are expected to reach an all-time high this month, adding demand for natural gas out of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB).NGI’s NOVA/AECO C forward basis remains negative from 2026–2028, showing clear seasonal volatility. At A Glance:
Exports exceed November peak by 0.2 Mt
Train 2 restart adds 370 MMcf/d in demand
Phase 1 ramping to nameplate capacity

The Sky’s the Limit - Alberta Sets Crude Oil Production Record in November ---Alberta’s crude oil output in November 2025 rose to a record of 4.40 MMb/d (height of stacked columns in dashed rectangle in chart below), a gain of 0.26 MMb/d over October and 0.20 MMb/d greater than a year ago according to data released by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). The monthly increase was driven by a gain of 0.12 MMb/d in synthetic crude oil (red columns) to a record 1.48 MMb/d and a 0.11 MMb/d increase in non-upgraded bitumen (green columns) to 2.24 MMb/d. Small gains were recorded for other production categories with the output of light conventional crude reaching 0.41 MMb/d, its highest level since March 2015. The conclusion of turnarounds at various oil sands production and upgrading sites in October, as well as the start up of expansions, led to the November production record. Unsurprisingly, with production at a record level, exports of crude oil from Alberta also set a record in November at 4.55 MMb/d (green text and arrow in chart below), consistent with strong export levels to the United States via pipelines and record levels of waterborne exports via the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX). With additional production gains expected in 2026, exports are likely to continue to trend higher to a new record.

Trans Mountain Waterborne Crude Exports Fall to 10-Month Low in December --Waterborne crude oil exports from the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) averaged 383 Mb/d in December 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), a sharp decrease of 130 Mb/d versus a revised record November export level of 513 Mb/d, and an increase of 40 Mb/d from a year ago based on tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The latest exports are a 10-month low just ahead of February 2025 at 366 Mb/d. The reduction is surprising given that prior anecdotal market information and management at TMX had suggested that export levels were looking strong heading into December. However, there are indications that regional pricing differentials may have partly moved against TMX barrels as Russian medium sour crude became more heavily discounted in December due to additional sanctions on Russian producers and crude oil tankers, leading to additional purchases by importers such as China.China (red columns in above chart) held its position for the past 12 months as the largest purchaser of Canadian crude from TMX with December intake of 258 Mb/d, a sizeable reduction of 115 Mb/d versus November’s record of 374 Mb/d and 93 Mb/d more than one year ago. The United States (blue columns) was the second largest buyer at 108 Mb/d, down 14 Mb/d from the prior month and 69 Mb/d less than a year ago. South Korea (green columns), a small and irregular purchaser, emerged for a second consecutive month, buying 17 Mb/d, down 1 Mb/d from November and 17 Mb/d above a year ago.Combining the latest waterborne exports with RBN’s estimates of crude oil and refined product flows from TMX to land-based destinations in British Columbia and Washington state, resulted in a pipeline utilization rate for TMX of 79% in December, a pullback from the record 94% computed for November and the second lowest rate in 2025.

U.S. to Control Venezuelan Oil Sales Indefinitely -- The Trump administration will sell Venezuelan oil “indefinitely” and control the proceeds, Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced Wednesday, as part of the administration’s broader strategy to manage Venezuela’s oil exports and rebuild its energy sector. Speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference in Miami, Wright said the U.S. will initially market backed-up crude currently stored in Venezuelan facilities and tankers, then continue selling all Venezuelan oil production going forward. “We’re going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela—first this backed up, stored oil, and then indefinitely, going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace,” Wright said. President Trump said Tuesday that Venezuela will provide between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil—worth approximately $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion at current market prices—to be transported by ship to U.S. docks. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump said he had directed Wright to execute the plan and that he would personally control how the money is used. “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!,” Trump wrote. The proceeds will be held in U.S. Treasury-controlled accounts at globally recognized banks, protecting the funds from Venezuela’s creditors while the administration maintains leverage over the country’s transition. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the funds would be “dispersed for the benefit of the American people and the Venezuelan people at the discretion of the United States.” The plan comes after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro and Trump announced American oil companies would rebuild the country’s decaying infrastructure. On Friday, the president is scheduled to meet with executives from Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon Mobil at the White House to discuss investments in Venezuela. The influx of Venezuelan crude is particularly valuable for Gulf Coast refineries, which are specifically configured to process heavy crude and have been seeking new sources since losing access to Venezuelan barrels in recent years. The complex refining infrastructure along the Gulf Coast can handle the heavier, sulfur-rich Venezuelan oil that simpler refineries around the world cannot process, making these barrels especially suited for U.S. consumption. The immediate availability of heavy crude could benefit U.S. consumers through lower prices for jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, and other refined products. The administration has selectively rolled back sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector to enable the transport and sale of crude that had been blocked by U.S. enforcement actions. Wright said the U.S. would also import parts, equipment, and services to increase Venezuelan oil flow, with the goal of attracting major American oil companies that previously operated in the country before nationalization under Hugo Chávez. Venezuela’s oil production has fallen to less than 1 million barrels per day due to years of corruption, underinvestment, and neglect. Wright estimated that output could increase by several hundred thousand barrels daily in the short to medium term, though fully restoring the industry would require an estimated $10 billion per year over the next decade, according to Francisco Monaldi, director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The quantity Trump announced—up to 50 million barrels—represents approximately 15 percent of Venezuela’s annual oil production and would require as many as 25 of the world’s largest oil tankers to transport. U.S. forces have seized multiple sanctioned oil tankers in recent days, including two more vessels Wednesday—one flying a Russian flag seized in the Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland, and another apprehended in the Caribbean—as the Trump administration moves to control all exports of Venezuelan crude. Global oil futures slipped 1.3 percent Wednesday, trading around $60 per barrel. Brent and WTI crude—the international and U.S. oil-price benchmarks—both dropped roughly 1 percent following Wright’s announcement. This suggests that oil traders are confident the Trump administration will succeed at increasing the amount of Venezuelan oil brought to global markets. Trump has threatened Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, to cooperate with U.S. demands. “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” Trump said Sunday. Chevron is currently the only U.S. major operating in Venezuela under a special license from Washington. Exxon and ConocoPhillips previously operated in the country but left after Chávez nationalized their assets in the mid-2000s. Oil companies will likely want assurances of a stable Venezuelan government and confidence that Washington will support their presence beyond Trump’s term before committing to the massive long-term investments required to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure.

Trump’s Venezuela gambit relies on oil boom for payback - Leaders around the world questioned the geopolitics and legality of Saturday’s U.S. raid in Venezuela, but President Donald Trump presented it as a business transaction. The United States plans to get its money back. The South American petrostate has the world’s largest oil reserves. So, Trump said, there should be plenty of money to revive oil production, pay back oil companies who say they were wronged years ago by nationalization and lift the fortunes of the beleaguered population of Venezuela. “We’re going to get reimbursed for all of that. We’re going to get reimbursed for everything that we spend,” Trump said during a Saturday news conference. The “money coming out of the ground is very substantial, so it’s not going to cost us anything.” But reimbursement is not as simple as it might seem in the wake of the dramatic U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday morning and drug trafficking charges. Analysts say restoring the Venezuelan oil industry won’t happen fast and won’t be easy — and there are some early warning signs.For one thing, oil companies are not rushing in to set up shop. POLITICO reported over the weekend that some industry officials are waiting whether the conflict-ridden country will hospitable to oil development. Some observers say the Trump administration hasn’t done much to show it will be. Part of the reluctance is tied to the current glut of oil, which has driven prices so low that U.S. oil companies are starting to back off some of their production plans in the United States. The International Energy Agency has said there are nearly 2 million extra barrels per day of oil in the global market, or about twice what Venezuela has been supplying. U.S. benchmark crude traded last week below $60 a barrel, a level considered at or below the breakeven point for many oil projects. And there are other big international plays, including some in more stable areas of South America such as off the coast of Guyana, that promise years of supply. While Trump says the previous Venezuelan administrations “stole” American oil, the reserves never belonged to the United States or companies based in the United States. The Venezuelan government nationalized and took control of wells, pipelines and other infrastructure. Beyond all of that, it’s not clear what Trump and his top leaders mean when they talk about “reimbursement” and funding Venezuela operations with the country’s oil money. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Sunday, though Trump told reporters that the U.S. action in Venezuela is about “peace on earth.” “The phrase ‘take the oil’ has been used a lot in articles and punditry, but just like energy dominance, there’s a lot of room to define it within the broader context of how things really work,” “It’s just not that simple.” Venezuela, which is about 1,300 miles from Florida, has the world’s largest proved oil reserves with nearly 304 billion barrels. By contrast, U.S. reserves are pegged at 69 billion barrels. Production in Venezuela, however, has plummeted amid economic collapse while U.S. crude production has surged in record levels in recent years. Texas-based Chevron is the one U.S. oil producer still operating in Venezuela under a license the Trump administration renewed earlier this year. ConocoPhillips left Venezuela in 2007 amid a nationalization of oil. The company is “monitoring developments in Venezuela,” ConocoPhillips said in a statement Sunday, adding that “it would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments.” Exxon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Sunday. London-based Shell, which also previously operated in Venezuela, declined to comment. Increasing Venezuelan oil production to reimburse the U.S. government and oil companies or support the Venezuelan people would be no simple task.The country’s production infrastructure has eroded during years of chronic underinvestment, León said, and much of the skilled workforce has left the country. Rystad estimates that it would take about $110 billion worth of investment to increase production from about 1 million barrels a day to 2 million barrels by early 2030. By comparison, the United States last year produced more than 13 million barrels of oil a day. It is “difficult for international companies to justify new investments in Venezuela at present,” León said.

Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry no easy feat: Update - President Donald Trump's call on US producers to invest billions of dollars to help revive Venezuela's battered oil sector will likely face an uphill struggle. After announcing the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, Trump said US oil firms will be given the job of rebuilding the Latin American nation's long-neglected oil industry, a task that analysts said will prove a tough slog following decades of neglect, underinvestment and sanctions. A meaningful turnaround will demand costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. US producers will also need clarity around legal frameworks regarding contracts, as well as sharply higher oil prices to justify the massive investments needed. "This is a multi-year repair and investment cycle, not a quick restart," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Even US oil majors would need sustained price signals, stable governance and durable sanctions relief before committing meaningful capital." Shares of US oil producers advanced on Monday following the weekend US strikes on Venezuela and ouster of Maduro, in anticipation of a potential windfall, even though that may be years away. Chevron climbed as much as 5pc while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips also posted gains. Oil services stocks including SLB and Halliburton jumped more than 10pc each. In contrast, shares of Canadian heavy crude producers such as Cenovus Energy tumbled on speculation that an eventual revival of Venezuelan output could pose a direct threat to demand from US Gulf coast refineries. Chevron said it remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of its employees in Venezuela, as well as the integrity of its assets. "We continue to operate uninterrupted and in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations," a company spokesman said. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips said it is monitoring developments in Venezuela, as well as potential implications for global energy supplies and stability. "It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," the company said. ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus. Production has fallen from more than 3mn b/d in the early 2000s, largely because of the impact of falling investment and US sanctions. Chevron would have a headstart over rivals in responding to Trump's call to help rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, given its role as the only major US producer left in the nation. The second-biggest US producer operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to data from Kpler ship tracking. During a press conference on 3 January, Trump dubbed Venezuela's seizure of assets from US oil companies under former president Hugo Chavez as one of the "largest thefts of property" in US history. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which lost assets in Venezuela in 2007, have since won awards in international tribunals and US courts for the expropriation of their assets. While Venezuela holds the world's biggest proven reserves, with an estimated 303bn bl, its extra-heavy crude is costly and complex to produce, posing an additional hurdle to reviving the nation's oil industry. "It remains unclear which companies would be willing to invest in Venezuela at current oil prices, especially amid ongoing political, security and legal uncertainties," added Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS. "Additionally, Venezuelan oil is primarily extra-heavy crude — highly viscous and with elevated sulfur and metals content — making it less valuable than sweet light crude."

Ex-Chevron executive reveals huge fund for Venezuelan oil projects -- A huge fund is being raised to develop Venezuelan oil projects following the capture of Nicolas Maduro, a former top executive for Chevron has said. Chevron’s former head of Latin American operations Ali Moshiri told the Financial Times his Amos Global Energy Management fund had identified Venezuelan assets and was talking to institutional investors. He said Amos had a $2bn private placement memorandum that was “ready to go with several investment targets identified.” However, energy industry analyst Allen Good, told Newsweek in a statement that Venezuela’s oil industry will require tens of billions of dollars in investment to lift production.and the bulk of its reserves are extra-heavy oil, which is costly and capital-intensive to extract. The capture of Maduro and Trump’s warning that Washington would dictate terms to Venezuela’s new leaders has raised the prospect of a corporate rush into the country whose oil reserves are reportedly larger than those of Saudi Arabia. Trump has called for “billions of dollars” to be poured into the country to tap its immense oil resources. Amos’s fundraising effort is a litmus test of whether Wall Street will want to fund the rebuilding of Venezuela’s decrepit oil infrastructure. The Trump administration has signaled that U.S. companies would be involved in the restoration of Venezuelan crude production following the capture of Maduro. Moshiri, Amos CEO, told the FT that the U.S. Special Forces’ capture of Maduro and Trump’s call had created a sudden opportunity and that interest in Venezuelan oil had “gone from zero to 99 per cent.” He said that Amos had a $2 billion private placement memorandum, which details the terms and the risks for potential investors. The FT said that the memorandum shows the fund intends to acquire 20,000-50,000 barrels a day of oil production and 500,000 barrels of reserves from the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), predicting an exit within seven years and a 250 percent return on investment. Chevron is the only major U.S. operator remaining in Venezuela, since Exxon and ConocoPhillips left in 2007 after the government nationalized their assets.

Take Me Money and Run Venezuela – Venezuela’s Oil Industry Could Be Poised for a Rebound, But It Will Take Time | RBN Energy - Venezuela took center stage over the weekend when U.S. forces removed President Nicolás Maduro from power, triggering a flood of speculation and market commentary about the country’s vast oil reserves and the potential for reviving its now-moribund upstream and refining sectors. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, but one thing seems clear: The upheaval could impact everything from crude oil flows and price differentials to refining slates and export economics. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into the outlook for Venezuela’s oil and refined product sectors in the short, middle and long term. Venezuela was once a critical supplier of heavy sour crude to Gulf Coast refineries, providing more than 1 MMb/d in the late 1990s and early 2000s before Venezuelan production entered a long period of decline soon after Hugo Chavez came into power (see It's Tricky). Today, the country produces less than 1 MMb/d of crude oil, barely one-quarter of where it was in the late ’90s at around 3.5 MMb/d. Most Venezuelan production is low-API, high-sulfur crude, coming primarily from Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt (dark-blue-shaded area in Figure 1 below). Because the crude is so dense and viscous, it needs to be blended with diluent — typically condensate or natural gasoline — or upgraded to a lighter synthetic crude oil (SCO) before it can be easily transported, which is similar to crude produced in the Canadian oil sands. Yet, while Venezuelan oil requires significant expertise and investment to produce, it tends to be less expensive to extract than similar quality Canadian bitumen as in-situ combustion (ISC) techniques, a type of enhanced oil recovery (EOR), can be utilized there. Venezuelan crude also requires more complex refining equipment than lighter crudes, making it a good fit for U.S. Gulf Coast plants that have invested specifically in such facilities. Venezuela was also once a major regional supplier of refined products and is home to five operating refineries (black pentagons), all of which have operated far below their full capacity in recent years. Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company allowed to extract and export Venezuelan crude, and only under a special U.S. Treasury license that permits it to ship barrels to the U.S. despite sanctions — that license accounts for the recent increase in the share of Venezuelan production headed to the U.S. (red line in Figure 3 above). Most of Chevron’s production is from the Orinoco Belt mentioned above, along with the Petroboscan project in western Venezuela. It’s important to note that Venezuelan production and export capacity are limited by a lack of crude upgrading capacity (due to the shutdown of their JV upgraders in Jose during the Chavez/Maduro years) as all four of its crude upgraders (white pentagons along the coast in Figure 1 above) appear to be shut down. With no upgrading capacity to process its heavy crude, Venezuela is limited to exporting volumes that can be blended with diluent, which is a big constraint on its operations. This appears to be a big problem and is likely causing a massive bottleneck. (We believe that most of the diluent has been coming from Iran, with some coming from Russia and the U.S.) Before we get to the specifics of our short-, medium- and long-term outlooks, we should emphasize that there are many unknowns about how this might play out. Here are a few examples. Will Maduro’s successor cooperate with the U.S., and to what degree? How soon will it be safe for heavy-oil production specialists to come in and assess what’s needed to increase output? Will U.S. oil companies and oilfield service providers agree to spend billions of dollars without guarantees they will recoup those investments? What is the condition of the idled oilfield assets, particularly the Jose upgraders? And how long will it take to make the necessary repairs and refurbishments and implement other required improvements?With that in mind, let’s start with what’s happening right now. Chaos pretty much rules the day. Except for Chevron, which resumed shipments after a four-day pause, all other crude oil export cargoes are on hold, storage is filling up, and operators are shutting in wells because there is nowhere for extra barrels to go. With exports constrained and shipments disrupted, it will take a while before anything close to a steady flow pattern returns.As for Venezuelan refiners, we don’t expect any meaningful short-term progress in improving Venezuela’s domestic plants. Utilization is sitting at roughly 19% and, for now, that is about as good as it will get (more on this below). With the country’s refining capacity mostly offline, any capital that eventually shows up is far more likely to chase upstream barrels than downstream upgrades. That’s because money will likely go where it can generate cash flow the fastest, and that is most likely upstream, not into rebuilding refineries. It should also be noted that Iran’s national oil refining company (NIORDC) has been involved in repairing Venezuela’s struggling refineries (to limited effect) and even those efforts will likely cease in the aftermath of the Maduro removal. Another issue to consider is that in the next six months, the eight-year battle over CITGO’s parent company could be resolved (see Aint' No Stoppin' Us Now). [Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA owns PDV Holding (PDVH), which in turn is the sole shareholder of CITGO Petroleum.] There’s been a primarily below-the-radar battle playing out in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware since 2017 about how best to help satisfy the claims of a dozen-plus creditors who collectively lost more than $20 billion when the government of Venezuela defaulted on its bonds. Long story short, while the sale has been signed off on by the judge, it has not been finalized. If the Trump administration is successful in its efforts to “run” Venezuela, over the next two years the story would shift from stranded barrels and paralyzed exports to one of Venezuela — and the oil companies working there — slowly rebuilding its upstream and export system. This isn't just about a gradual increase in output but also a rerouting. There will be efforts to redirect heavy crude that had been moving to Asia (especially China) toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. (Many of China’s refineries are configured to process Venezuelan barrels, and Venezuela owes Chinese lenders billions that were being repaid in crude, raising questions about how those obligations might be handled.) On Tuesday, President Trump indicated that Venezuela will give the U.S. between 30-50 MMbbl of crude oil. As this oil moves to the Gulf Coast, that will nudge the heavy-light differential a bit wider and boost the economics of complex Gulf Coast refiners that can run heavy sour crude, although we are talking about an incremental move, not a massive blowout. Venezuela’s long-term outlook will hinge on whether capital can push past politics, legal issues and crumbling infrastructure. The country’s self-reported resource base is enormous. In 2023, Venezuela reported about 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, which would be roughly 17% of the global total, although there’s skepticism about that estimate. Despite those doubts, what’s really holding production back are classic “aboveground issues,” especially the lack of outside investment tied to political instability. Long term, we still see meaningful upside for heavy crude production, although that would likely require a more stable government. That said, we do think progress could come faster than what we expected before Maduro’s ouster, but it would still take many years. Restoring full production in Venezuela will likely take tens or hundreds of billions of dollars over a decade or more. With today’s oil industry focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns, it’s hard to see many international companies committing that kind of money without very strong guarantees. The bottom line is it will likely take years for real change, and there is still much chaos and uncertainty.

Continental Grows Vaca Muerta Exposure as Argentina Natural Gas Output Rises --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas volumes from Dec. 29, 2025 through Jan. 7, 2026, with exports ranging from about 17.6 to 19.1 million Dth. The graphic details deliveries, operating capacity and utilization rates for major U.S. LNG export terminals, including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport and Plaquemines, alongside a U.S. map of facility locations.

• 7 Bcf/d: Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources Inc. is expanding its interest in Argentina’s gas-rich Vaca Muerta shale play in a deal with Pan American Energy (PAE). The firm disclosed it has inked a purchase agreement with PAE for non-operating interests in four blocks in the Vaca Muerta’s Neuquén Basin. Hamm previously met with Argentinian officials to acquire assets in the oil-heavy Los Toldos II Oeste field. Continental, the Anadarko Basin’s top producer, has been increasingly seeking international exposure with project investments in Argentina and Türkiye’s Diyarbakır Basin. The International Energy Agency recently estimated investment in Vaca Muerta could boost Argentine gas production to more than 7 Bcf/d in 2035.
• 17.65 million Dth/d: Feed gas nominations to U.S. LNG terminals have backed off from the near-record highs of the past week as global spot cargo demand appears muted. After hitting around 19.33 million Dth/d at the beginning of the week, nominations have slumped to 17.65 million Dth/d, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. The drop has been led by reduced nominations from the Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass export facilities, cutting into the sustained gains at Plaquemines LNG.
• 10.72 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow 2.39 million tons (Mt) month/month in January despite a drop in demand from Europe, according to Kpler predictive data. Volumes from the nation’s terminals are expected to reach 10.72 Mt by the end of the month. Imports from European countries are estimated to drop 1.71 Mt year/year in January as buyers rely on storageand affordable spot cargoes during mild winter temperatures. Meanwhile, Asian buyers could be incentivized to buy an additional 1.67 Mt over last January.
• 466 miles: Project partners of the 12 Mt/y capacity Ksi Lisims LNG export project planned for British Columbia (BC) are honing in on a final investment decision in the coming months. Representatives for Western LNG told local officials that the partnership could sanction the floating LNG facility sometime during “early 2026,” according to the Prince George Citizen newspaper. The partners also plan to adjust the path of the 466-mile associated pipeline further north through Nisga’a Nation territory. Ksi Lisims is being developed by the Nisga’a Nation, a consortium of producers and Houston-based Western LNG. The partnership is currently constructing the pipeline planned to move up to 2 Bcf/d from northeastern BC to the west coast.

ICE’s Longer Trading Window to Align TTF, NBP With Henry Hub Peak Liquidity -Natural gas and electricity trading hours in the UK and continental Europe are set to expand to a nearly all-day window, creating almost continuous arbitrage opportunities for U.S. LNG. Table showing U.S. Gulf Coast LNG netback prices on a 12-month forward strip as of Jan. 7, 2026. The table compares JPN/KOR, NBP and TTF futures prices, estimated shipping costs from the Gulf Coast, calculated LNG netbacks and netback margins versus Henry Hub futures, with Gulf Coast netbacks generally ranging from about $8.1/MMBtu to $9.4/MMBtu. At A Glance:
22-hour trading begins Feb. 23
HH–TTF spreads adjust more quickly
Forward curves signal price compression

EU accused of fuelling Putin’s war by importing Russian liquefied natural gas -European governments have been accused of fuelling Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine as new data shows the Kremlin earned an estimated €7.2bn (£6.2bn) last year from exporting its liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU. Brussels has pledged to ban imports of Russian LNG – natural gas that is supercooled to make it easier to transport – by 2027 but an analysis suggests there is yet to be any letup in the vast quantities being received at European ports from Russia’s LNG complex on the Yamal peninsula in Siberia. More than 15m tonnes of Yamal LNG was transported through the Arctic ice to reach EU terminals in 2025, according to the human rights NGO Urgewald, earning the Kremlin an estimated €7.2bn. While Europe has cut supplies of pipeline gas from Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s share of global shipments from Yamal increased in the last year, the fourth of the war in Ukraine, rising to 76.1%, up from 75.4% in 2024, the report said. The imports remain legal and the EU has been reluctant to ban Russian shipments of LNG, particularly due to the dependency of central and eastern Europe on the energy source. One of the two European shipping companies who are said to form the logistical backbone for Yamal LNG is Seapeak, which is based in the UK. The latest analysis suggests Seapeak transported 37.3% of Yamal LNG on its ships, while Greece’s Dynagas transported 34.3%. The two companies have been contacted for comment. Eleven of the 14 specialist ice-breaking Arc7 tankers that transport LNG from Yamal are owned by Seapeak, which is owned by the American investment firm Stonepeak, and Dynagas. The UK has said it will transition towards a ban this year on the provision of maritime services for vessels carrying Russian LNG. “While Brussels celebrates the latest agreement to phase out Russian gas, our ports continue serving as the logistics lung for Russia’s largest LNG terminal, Yamal. “In the current geopolitical situation, we cannot afford another year of complicity. We are not just customers, we are the essential infrastructure keeping this flagship project alive. Every cargo that offloads at an EU terminal is a direct deposit into a war chest that fuels the slaughter in Ukraine. We must stop providing the oxygen for Russia’s energy profits and shut the Yamal loophole now.” Russia’s Yamal plant is dependent on access to EU ports and the use of ice-breaking LNG tankers of the Arc7 class, which were built specifically for the project. The ships would have to accept significantly longer transport routes if they did not have the unloading or reloading opportunities in EU ports including Zeebrugge in Belgium. According to Urgewald, 58 ships reached the Belgian terminal in 2025, delivering 4.2m tonnes of LNG. During the same period, only 51 ships reached Chinese ports, delivering 3.6m tonnes. A total of 87 ships delivered 6.3m tonnes of LNG to the French ports of Dunkirk and Montoir in 2025, making France the largest importer. France’s energy major TotalEnergies remains a key investor in Russia’s Yamal project. Access to the European ports enables the ice-class tankers to quickly return to the Arctic to pick up more gas, rather than being tied up on weeks-long voyages to Asia.

Norwegian Natural Gas Output Decline Widens Path for More U.S. LNG to Europe - - Norway’s oil and natural gas production is expected to fall before 2030 unless investments are made to maintain output from Europe’s top supplier, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) warned in an annual update. At A Glance:

• Investments forecast to fall 6.5%
• Oil, gas production could weaken
• 2025 Norwegian output near record levels

Sweden receives $3.9m compensation for Marco Polo oil spill - The Swedish state is receiving SEK35.6 million ($3.9 million) in compensation for the Swedish Coast Guard’s environmental rescue work following the oil spill from the ship Marco Polo. The payment was made by the ship’s insurance company to cover the authority's efforts, vessel readiness, equipment, and personnel costs. Nina Andersson, head of the coast guard’s legal unit, stated that international regulations ensure taxpayers receive compensation when oil reaches the sea. The Marco Polo, a Ro-Pax ship operated by TT-Line, ran aground on October 22, 2023, in Pukaviksbukten off the coast of Blekinge, leaking at least 60,000 litres of oil. The environmental rescue operation lasted 19 days, involving approximately 75 coast guard personnel and rescue divers. Efforts included four kilometres of dredging and were carried out in collaboration with local municipalities, the Swedish Maritime Rescue Society (SSRS), and the Home Guard. A separate water pollution fee of SEK1.4 million, determined in accordance with the act on measures against pollution from ships, has been appealed by TT-Line to the Stockholm District Court. The Marco Polo was towed away on November 9, 2023, for repairs at a shipyard in Poland. The compensation received will be reported directly to the national treasury.

Oil spill reported at "M-25" field in Boysun - According to the Ministry of Energy, an oil spill occurred at the “M-25” oil field in Boysun. To prevent further spread and protect the environment, additional containment ponds were built around the site and along the stream. The collected oil is continuously transported to a special site. There, there are two isolated sludge ponds with a capacity of 5,000 cubic meters each, which allow safe storage of oil and its later efficient use. According to the ministry, all work is being carried out in full compliance with current industrial and environmental safety requirements. Oil samples are being analyzed, and based on the results, the possibilities for processing will be studied. Geological studies are also ongoing. Currently, the situation is under constant monitoring, and the oil has been contained. In the first days, cleanup work is being carried out for oil that entered the canal.

Exploration plans spark fear of another Santos WA oil spill - WA's peak environmental body warns that proposed drilling by Santos to find oil under the seabed north of Port Hedland is a risk to marine parks, commercial fishing and protected species. Conservation Council of WA (CCWA) director Matt Roberts said Santos’ own modelling showed that spills from the drilling could cause wide-ranging devastation to WA’s iconic Pilbara coastline. “Santos wants permission to drill near some of our most iconic marine parks and around 40 kilometres from the Rowley Shoals Marine Park,” he said. Adelaide-based Santos plans to drill up to seven wells sometime in the next five years in the Bedout Basin, more than 100km from the WA coast (see pink outlined areas below). In December Santos lodged an environment plan for the drilling to be assessed by the Federal offshore environment regulator NOPSEMA. The Adelaide-based company's analysis showed that the environment that may be affected (EMBA - see blue outlined area above) was a vast swathe of ocean stretching from off Carnarvon, northwards to near Timor Leste. The most serious possible incident is a loss of well control, which Santos predicted in the worst case could last for 77 days until it could drill a relief well to stem the flow from the initial hole. "Hydrocarbons will persist within the environment for a longer period of time, although the hydrocarbon released is expected to weather quickly through evaporation and dispersion," the Santos environment plan stated. According to the CCWA, inside the area that may be affected are three World Heritage Areas - Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Murujuga - and nine marine parks. The area also contains fisheries for economically important crayfish, scallops, abalone and prawns and is home to 13 protected species. Roberts pointed to Santos' "dire record of ongoing leaks and spills in the Northern Territory and WA." In August, the ABC revealed that a tank holding liquified natural gas at a Santos gas export plant near Darwin had been leaking for two decades. In 2022 three dead dolphins were found within 200m of an oil spill at Santos' Varanus Island gas processing plant off the Pilbara coast. The Adelaide-based company denied any link between the two events as, according to a company spokeswoman, the carcasses were found a few hours after the spill "in which time no harm would have resulted from this incident.” However, SA Museum honorary mammal researcher Dr Catherine Kemper said in 2022 that the fact that the dead dolphins were floating suggested a sudden death. In 2025 Santos plead guilty in the Karratha criminal court to "failing to operate its licensed pipeline in a proper and workmanlike manner, failing to prevent the escape of petroleum." A whistleblower whose anonymous statement was tabled in Federal parliament in 2023 accused Santos of a cover up. “Santos lied to us all. It is not a coincidence to find dead dolphins in the middle of an oil spill," he said. “It indicates a belief within Santos that they can operate to avoid public interest through misinformation, supported by a cosy relationship with regulators and government.” The oil spill was just one of five known serious safety and environmental incidents that occurred in just two years at Santos' operations around Varanus Island.

Oil residues can travel over 5,000 miles on ocean debris, study finds -- When oily plastic and glass, as well as rubber, washed onto Florida beaches in 2020, a community group shared the mystery online, attracting scientists' attention. Working together, they linked the black residue-coated debris to a 2019 oil slick along Brazil's coastline. Using ocean current models and chemical analysis, the team explains in Environmental Science & Technology how some of the oily material managed to travel over 5,200 miles (8,500 kilometers) by clinging to debris. "The research findings of our study would not have been possible without the dedication of the Friends of Palm Beach," says Bryan James, lead author of the study and a researcher at Northeastern University. "Their long-term knowledge of the local marine debris enabled them to notice when unique and interesting items like oily plastic comes ashore. If they hadn't been willing to investigate and share their observations, this discovery would still be lost at sea."Although some plastics can drift thousands of miles on ocean currents, crude oil or refined petroleum usually doesn't. Instead, sunlight and microbes break down oil within a few hundred miles (300 kilometers) of where it entered the water. So, in 2020, the source of oily plastic bottles and glass containers along the shore in Palm Beach, Florida, was curious to the Friends of Palm Beach cleanup group.With no spills reported nearby, the group's main clues about the oil's source were the bottle labels in Portuguese, Spanish and English, and large chunks of rubber that had also washed up. The group became community scientists as some members teamed up with international researchers led by James and Christopher Reddy at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to find the origin of the oil and plastic pollution. James, Reddy and their colleagues hypothesized that the oily plastic and rubber littering the beach in Florida could have the same origin as similar pollution found on Brazil's coast in late 2019. And the source of the oil and rubber might be the SS Rio Grande, a sunken World War II supply ship in the Atlantic Ocean. To test their hypothesis, the researchers conducted computer simulations and oil spill forensic analyses.

• Origin: Ocean current models traced the plastic bottles backward in time, predicting origins spanning from the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and Brazil.
• Travel time: Additional models estimated that the oily debris drifted for 240 days, which is a timeframe consistent with currents carrying material from the 2019 Brazil oil spill to the Florida coast.
• Chemical analyses: Several of the oily residues collected from the Florida debris showed evidence of refining, and the "chemical fingerprints" of the oily plastic matched those collected from the Brazil oil spill.

Reddy concludes that this work demonstrates an additive contaminant effect where plastic pollution can transport oil pollution far beyond its origin, and it expands on the current understanding of "petroplastic"—a recently recognized form of plastic pollution from humans.

Oil prices fall as capture of Maduro raises questions over supply | Khaleej Times - Oil prices opened the first full trading week of 2026 with a muted reaction to one of the most dramatic geopolitical events in recent history: the weekend US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Benchmarks such as Brent crude edged slightly lower, with WTI also dipping as investors weighed whether the upheaval in Caracas could meaningfully alter the supply–demand balance in a market already grappling with oversupply and subdued demand growth. The Wall Street Journal and other outlets noted that markets were awaiting clarity on the oil supply implications of the US action, but initial trading suggested traders saw limited near-term disruption. Brent, the global oil benchmark, has hovered around $60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate — the US marker — has remained near mid-$50s, continuing the downtrend that marked 2025 as one of the poorest years for crude in half a decade. Analysts point out that Venezuela’s current contribution to global oil production is minimal. Once a petrostate powerhouse, the country’s output has plummeted over the last two decades due to mismanagement, sanctions and deteriorated infrastructure — a decline that means Venezuela now accounts for less than 1 per cent of actual global oil supply despite holding some 17–20 per cent of proven reserves. As a result, the market’s limited near-term price reaction reflects the view that political headlines alone do not equate to real supply shocks. Energy strategists argue that even if US companies were to re-enter the Venezuelan oil sector, the timeframes involved are measured in years, not weeks or months. Upgrading facilities in Venezuela’s heavy-crude-rich Orinoco Belt requires massive capital investment, robust logistics and a sustained security environment — prerequisites that do not materialize overnight. Reviving production meaningfully could take well into the latter part of the decade. “Washington’s operational success over the weekend does not automatically translate into increased barrels on the global market,” says an industry trader in London. “Markets are correct to distinguish between geopolitical noise and tangible supply shifts.” This fundamental weakness in demand relative to supply is underscored by official forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent and WTI prices to remain under downward pressure through 2026 as production growth outpaces consumption, with Brent averaging near the mid-$50s and WTI near the low-$50s over the next year. EIA data highlights record U.S. output levels contributing to a supply surplus that threatens to swamp inventories further. Global oil market consultancies echo the bearish consensus. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have maintained 2026 price forecasts at around $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, emphasising that any Venezuelan recovery would be gradual and dependent on substantial investment and political stability — factors that remain uncertain despite the recent regime change. Meanwhile, forecasts from multiple agencies suggest supply could exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026 — a glut equivalent to roughly four per cent of world consumption — keeping downward pressure on crude. Beyond fundamentals, geopolitical dynamics still play a secondary role. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters warn that structural surpluses, rather than geopolitical shocks, will ultimately define price trajectories through 2026 and possibly beyond — unless coordinated supply discipline emerges from major producers. While the US strike in Venezuela has added a dramatic twist to oil market narratives, it has not fundamentally altered the bearish undercurrents driving prices: chronic oversupply, production growth in the US and other regions, and the complexities of returning Venezuelan oil to international markets, analysts note.

Oil Prices Edge Lower On Supply Glut Concerns - Oil prices were moving lower on Monday after OPEC+ decided to keep output unchanged through the first three months of the year. Concerns over sluggish demand in China, a stronger dollar and the prospect of a production revival in Venezuela also weighed on prices. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell over 1 percent to $60.13 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 1 percent at $56.73. OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production at its meeting on Sunday, despite falling oil prices on fears of oversupply, and tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The eight countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - raised their production targets by 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, which is almost 3 percent of global oil demand. On the data front, a private survey showed that China's services activity expanded at its slowest pace in six months in December, as growth in new business softened and foreign demand declined. Amid weak consumer spending at home and growing scrutiny from global trading partners, China's broader economic backdrop remains worrisome. Meanwhile, the dollar rose on increased geopolitical uncertainty after the U.S. moved to oust Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. It is feared that U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to run the county and unlock vast reserves could deepen a global supply glut.

The Oil Market Assessed the Impact on Venezuela's Oil Flows - The oil market posted an outside trading day as the market assessed the situation in Venezuela, whose crude exports have been under a U.S. embargo, and the potential impact on Venezuela’s oil flows following the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. In volatile trading, the crude market, which initially traded higher in overnight trading, sold off to a low of $56.31 as traders expect little impact to the overall supply of crude oil, as President Trump stated that the embargo remained in place and any further disruption to Venezuela’s exports could be offset by increased output elsewhere. However, the crude market bounced off its low and extended its gains to almost $1.20 as it posted a high of $58.51 by mid-morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The February WTI contract settled up $1 at 58.32 and the February Brent contract settled up $1.01 at $61.76. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.77 cents at $2.1428 and the RB market settling up 2.18 cents at $1.72. Bloomberg reported that realizing President Donald Trump’s plan for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s struggling oil industry could be a years-long and challenging process costing upwards of $100 billion. It said a significant impact on the oil market following the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro could take years to materialize. Francisco Monaldi, director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry to increase Venezuela’s output back to its peak levels of the 1970s would require companies that could include Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and ConocoPhillips to invest about $10 billion per year over the next decade. He said a faster recovery would require even more investment. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during an interview with ABC on Sunday that he expects U.S. oil companies will be eager for the opportunity to drill for Venezuela’s heavy crude, which is key for refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, according to Lino Carrillo, a former manager at PDVSA, companies will want to be certain the country is stable. He said “For any oil companies to actually get serious about investing in Venezuela would require that there will be a new congress or National Assembly.” On Sunday, OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged following a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the political crises affecting several of the producer group’s members. The eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, raised their oil output targets by around 2.9 million bpd in 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand, to regain market share. The eight members agreed in November to pause output hikes for January, February and March due to relatively low demand in the northern hemisphere winter. Sunday’s brief online meeting affirmed that policy. The eight countries are scheduled to meet next on February 1st.

Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Oversupply and Developments in Venezuela -Brent crude futures declined 0.5% (28 cents) to $61.48 per barrel by 07:35 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.6% (32 cents) to $58.00 per barrel. Brianka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Philip Nova, noted that oil prices have responded only weakly to major geopolitical events, such as U.S. military moves in Venezuela and ongoing attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, indicating that fundamental supply and demand factors remain the main price drivers. “From a supply perspective, the oil market remains well-stocked,” she added. “According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global crude supplies continue to outpace consumption growth, pushing inventories higher and maintaining downward pressure on prices.” A Reuters survey conducted in December showed that market participants expect oil prices to remain under pressure throughout 2026 due to increased supply and weak demand. Pressure on prices could intensify following Maduro’s arrest on Saturday, raising the possibility of lifting U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil and boosting production. Maduro appeared in a New York court on Monday, pleading not guilty to drug-related charges. A source told Reuters that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet this week with executives from American oil companies to discuss ways to increase Venezuelan oil output. Ed Mayer, a market analyst at Marex, said: “Even a partial implementation of Trump’s approach is likely to increase Venezuelan oil production, adding more pressure to a market already facing oversupply.” Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels, but its oil sector has declined over the years due to underinvestment and U.S. sanctions. Last year, Venezuelan production averaged around 1.1 million barrels per day. Analysts suggest production could rise by up to 500,000 barrels per day over the next two years if political stability is achieved and U.S. investments flow in. However, ANZ Research noted in a report that political instability remains the most likely scenario, adding that increasing production beyond Venezuela’s current effective capacity would require substantial investment.

Oil falls as investors weigh supply outlook, Venezuelan uncertainties - (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations of ample global supply this year against uncertainty around Venezuelan crude output after the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro, the South American country's leader. Brent crude futures fell $1.06, or 1.7%, to settle at $60.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.19, or 2%, to $57.13 a barrel. "It is premature to evaluate the impact of Nicolas Maduro's capture on the oil balance. What seems obvious, nonetheless, is that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member," Global oil demand likely grew by around 900,000 barrels per day last year, compared to a historical trend rate of 1.2 million bpd, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note on Tuesday. OPEC supply grew 1.6 million bpd and non-OPEC supply grew about 2.4 million bpd between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025, the Morgan Stanley analysts said. "This means both sources of supply enter 2026 at a very strong level," they said, adding that could put oil markets in a surplus of as much as 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026. Market participants polled by Reuters in December also said they expected oil prices to be under pressure in 2026 because of rising supply and weak demand. "As the evolving global oil surplus becomes more transparent, the stage for a renewed downturn by next week will be set," Price pressure could be exacerbated by the U.S. capture of Maduro on Saturday and its potential to hasten an end to a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil, leading to higher output. Market participants were also debating the future trajectory of Venezuelan supply after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed U.S. oil companies were ready to invest in the South American country to boost its production and exports. U.S. oil company CEOs are expected to visit the White House as early as Thursday to discuss investments in Venezuela, according to three sources familiar with the planning.Venezuela's oil sector has long been in decline, due in part to underinvestment and U.S. sanctions. Oil production from the country averaged 1.1 million bpd last year. "We estimate only 300,000 barrels per day of additional supply within the next two to three years on limited incremental spending," "Some of this can be financed organically by (state-run oil company) PDVSA but international capital would need to be committed to make 3 million bpd by 2040 possible," Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell last week while fuel stocks rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. The API figures showed a 2.77 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil stocks. Official U.S. government statistics on the country's oil inventories are due at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. Eight analysts polled by Reuters ahead of the report estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ending January 2.

The Market Weighed Uncertainty Regarding Venezuela's Oil Output - Sprague Energy The oil market erased its early gains and ended the session lower as the market weighed the uncertainty regarding Venezuela’s oil output after the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and the concerns about an oversupply. The crude market traded mostly sideways before it breached its previous high and rallied to a high of $58.87 early in the morning. However, the market held resistance at that level and erased its earlier gains, posting a low of $57.03 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled down $1.19 at $57.13 and continued to sell off, trading to a low of $56.84 in the post settlement period in light of the news that the U.S. and Venezuela are in talks to export Venezuelan oil to the United States. The March Brent contract settled down $1.06 at $60.70. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.98 cents at $2.0830 and the RB market settling down 1.94 cents at $1.7006. Late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela will be “turning over” 30-50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. Earlier, the Trump administration dismissed analysts’ estimates that it would take years to increase Venezuela’s oil production, saying there were ways to quickly increase the country’s output. U.S. Interior Secretary, Dough Burgum, said one option was for the U.S. to lift sanctions on Venezuela that had prevented the country from accessing crucial oil field equipment and other technologies to maximize production. U.S. President Trump has stated that the U.S. industry could expand operations in Venezuela in less than 18 months, possibly with the help of subsidies. Venezuela’s main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising U.S. President Donald Trump for toppling Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election. U.S. President Trump has stated the United States needs to help address Venezuela’s problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic. President Trump has given little indication of backing the opposition leader. The U.S. administration appears so far to be hoping to work with interim President Delcy Rodriguez, a Maduro ally who has denounced his “kidnapping” while also calling for cooperation and respectful relations with Washington. Shipping data showed that Venezuela’s main oil ports on Tuesday entered their fifth day without delivering crude for state-run PDVSA’s customers in Asia, as the U.S. pressures the nation through an oil embargo. On Monday, Chevron resumed exports of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. after a four-day pause and called workers abroad back to its Venezuela offices as flights to the country restarted. The U.S. firm has emerged in recent weeks as the only company fluidly exporting Venezuela’s crude. The administration of President Donald Trump is planning to meet with executives from U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production after U.S. forces ousted its leader Nicolas Maduro.

Oil prices fall again after Trump says Venezuela to send oil to U.S. -- Oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday morning, on fears of a supply increase after U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuela will send up to 50 million barrels to the United States. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, Trump said Venezuela’s interim government would hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of “sanctioned oil” to the U.S., in a move he framed as benefiting both nations. A barrel contains 159 litres. The amount is the equivalent of one to two months of Venezuelan oil production. The oil would be sold at market prices, and proceeds would be controlled by him as president to ensure they were used “to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump posted. A barrel of North Sea Brent for delivery in March fell on Wednesday morning by 56 cents, or nearly 1 per cent, to 60.14 dollars, after the price fell by nearly 2 per cent on Tuesday. The price for a barrel of U.S. grade WTI for delivery in February fell by 73 cents, or 1.3 per cent, to 56.40 dollars. It was initially unclear over what period the volume of crude oil cited by Trump would be made available by Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela’s most important source of revenue and foreign currency. The new leadership in Caracas did not immediately comment on Trump’s announcement.

The U.S. Reached a Deal to Import $2 Billion of Venezuelan Crude - The crude oil market on Wednesday sold off sharply following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement late Tuesday that the U.S. reached a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude. The oil market quickly sold off to a low of $55.76 during the overnight session following the announcement that the U.S. would refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude that had been stuck in Venezuela under the U.S. blockade. The market later bounced off its low and retraced all of its earlier losses as it posted a high of $57.17 amid the news that the U.S. seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker after a more than two-week long pursuit across the Atlantic. However, the market once again erased its gains and traded back towards its low and held support at $55.86 during the remainder of the session. The February WTI contract settled down $1.14 at $55.99 and the March Brent contract settled down 74 cents at $59.96. The product markets ended the session settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.63 cents at $2.0567 and the RB market settling down 61 points at $1.6945. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Caracas and Washington reached a deal to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the United States, a negotiation that would divert supplies from China while helping Venezuela avoid deeper oil production cuts.CNBC reported that oil sales from Venezuela will continue indefinitely and sanctions will be reduced. Citing a source close to the White House, CNBC said the 50 million barrels were only the first tranche, with sales expected to continue indefinitely, and that U.S. sanctions on Venezuela would be rolled back as part of the deal.The U.S. seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker that was being shadowed by a Russian submarine on Wednesday, after a more than two-week-long pursuit across the Atlantic as part of a U.S. “blockade” of Venezuelan oil exports. Separately, the U.S. Coast Guard has also intercepted another Venezuela-linked tanker in Latin American waters, as the U.S. continues enforcing its blockade of sanctioned vessels from Venezuela.Russia said that the U.S. seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic was a violation of maritime law. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia is demanding that the U.S. ensure humane and decent treatment of its citizens aboard a seized oil tanker and their swift return home. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated the oil market could reach a surplus of as much as 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026, based on weak growth in demand last year and increasing supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 391,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 9th, decreasing available refining capacity by 206,000 bpd.

Oil settles down more than 1% after Trump statements on Venezuelan oil (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower for a second straight session on Wednesday as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move that would lift supplies to the world's largest oil consumer. Brent crude futures closed down 74 cents, or 1.2%, at $59.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.14, or 2%, to $55.99 a barrel. Both benchmarks slid more than $1 a barrel during the previous trading session, with market participants expecting ample global supply this year. Venezuela will be "turning over" between 30 million and 50 million barrels of "sanctioned oil" to the U.S., Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. The deal between Washington and Caracas initially could require the rerouting of cargoes that were bound for China, sources told Reuters. "Crude futures continuing on the defensive after the late day sell-off yesterday on news that Venezuela will be giving the US between 30 to 50 million barrels of oil," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded on tankers and in storage tanks that it has been unable to ship since mid-December due to a blockade on exports imposed by Trump. The blockade was part of a U.S. pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government that culminated in U.S. forces capturing him over the weekend. Top Venezuelan officials have called Maduro's capture a kidnapping and accused the U.S. of trying to steal the country's vast oil reserves. The U.S. also seized an empty Russian-flagged, Venezuela-linked oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Providing some support to prices, U.S. crude stocks dropped by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ended January 2, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had estimated a rise of 447,000 barrels. U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 7.7 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 3.2 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, climbed by 5.6 million barrels in the week versus expectations for a rise of 2.1 million barrels. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated the oil market could reach a surplus of as many as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, based on weak growth in demand last year and rising supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. However, the prospect of higher, cheaply extracted Venezuelan oil exports could pause expansion of productive capacity in the U.S. and elsewhere, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note on Wednesday. Venezuela has been selling its flagship Merey crude grade at around $22 per barrel below Brent for delivery at its ports. "That raises the expected price of oil over the medium term, especially if the Venezuelan regime survives,"

Venezuelan Supply Expectations Weigh On Oil Prices -- Oil prices came under renewed pressure on Thursday after Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA said talks to sell crude to the US are progressing, while signals from Washington pointed to a selective easing of sanctions that could allow Venezuelan oil back into global markets, Anadolu Ajansi reported. International benchmark Brent crude stood at $59.96 per barrel at 9.13 a.m. local time (0613 GMT), down 0.3 per cent from the previous close of $60.13. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.2 per cent to $56.06 per barrel, compared with $56.20 in the prior session. PDVSA said negotiations with Washington are being conducted under frameworks similar to existing commercial arrangements with international producers such as Chevron and are based on principles of legality, transparency and mutual benefit. Markets interpreted the developments as increasing the likelihood of additional Venezuelan crude supply, reinforcing concerns over a growing global surplus at a time when demand growth remains fragile. The supply outlook was further underscored by comments from US officials. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that interim authorities in Venezuela had agreed to transfer between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US to be sold at market prices, with proceeds directed toward benefiting both Venezuela and the US. Venezuela and the US. The White House also said Trump will host a meeting with US oil executives on Friday to discuss potential industry involvement in Venezuela's energy sector, part of a broader effort to selectively ease sanctions and enable the transport and sale of Venezuelan crude and refined products globally. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the US has already begun marketing Venezuelan crude internationally, adding that leading commodity traders and major banks will be involved in executing sales and providing financing. She said proceeds from the sales will initially be held in US-controlled accounts at internationally recognised banks before being allocated at the discretion of the US government. Leavitt also said Energy Secretary Chris Wright met with oil company executives in Florida on Thursday, with a follow-up meeting scheduled at the White House on Friday, highlighting growing engagement between Washington and the energy industry over Venezuela's oil sector. The prospect of Venezuelan barrels re-entering global trade flows has added to oversupply concerns, limiting upside for crude prices. On the other hand, data showing a draw in US commercial crude inventories helped cap further price declines. US commercial crude stocks fell by about 3.8 million barrels, or 0.9 per cent, to 419.1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 2, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration on to data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. However, strategic petroleum reserves — which are excluded from commercial inventories — rose by 200,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, while gasoline inventories jumped by around 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels. The rise in strategic reserves and gasoline stocks underscored ample supply and soft demand, reinforcing bearish sentiment across oil markets.

The Oil Market Continued to Assess Developments in Venezuela - The oil market traded sharply higher on Thursday after two days of declines as the market continued to assess the developments in Venezuela and was well supported by the news that progress was made on a proposed U.S. sanctions legislation against countries doing business with Russia. The market rebounded over last week’s closing levels, recovering from the Venezuela-related selling, on expectations that a meaningful amount of Venezuelan crude coming into the Gulf Coast region could be years away. U.S. oil companies are reportedly seeking guarantees from the U.S. before they decide to make large investments in Venezuela ahead of a meeting with the Trump administration scheduled for Friday. The market was also supported by the news that U.S. President Donald Trump is allowing a Russian sanctions bill to advance, raising concerns of further disruption to Russian oil exports. The market was further supported by news that a Russia-bound oil tanker suffered a drone attack in the Black Sea. The crude market posted a low of $55.97 in overnight trading before it retraced its previous losses. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $58.88 to a low of $55.76 as it rallied to a high of $57.84 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up $1.77 at $57.76 and later continued to extend its gains in the post settlement period, posting a new high of $58.50. The March Brent contract settled up $2.03 at $61.99. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.28 cents at $2.1195 and the RB market settling up 6.58 cents at $1.7603. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and his advisers are planning an initiative to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come, and the president told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to $50/barrel. It reported that a plan under consideration includes the U.S. exerting some control over Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA, including acquiring and marketing the majority of the company’s oil production. In an interview published by the New York Times, U.S. President Donald Trump said that “only time will tell” how long the United States will maintain oversight of Venezuela. He said U.S. oversight of Venezuela could last for years. He made no commitments about when elections would be held in Venezuela. In the interview, President Trump also added that that the U.S. was “getting along very well” with the government of the interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, a longstanding Maduro loyalist who had served as the ousted leader’s vice president. The Financial Times reported that U.S. oil companies want “serious guarantees” from Washington before they make large investments in Venezuela as President Donald Trump urges them to back his bid to reshape energy markets. The U.S. Senate advanced a resolution on Thursday that would bar President Donald Trump from taking further military action against Venezuela without congressional authorization, paving the way for further consideration in the 100-member chamber. Late Wednesday, U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that President Trump had “greenlit” a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill after the pair met on Wednesday. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the text of a bilateral security guarantee between Kyiv and Washington was “essentially ready” to be finalized with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Oil Surges 3% on Russia Sanctions, Biggest Jump Since July -- Crude futures jumped 3% on Thursday, Jan. 8, their most in a day since July, driven by White House approval for new sanctions on Russian oil. A weekly draw in U.S. crude inventories also helped the market claw back most of the losses from the prior two sessions that had been triggered by concerns over Venezuela's oil sector. Data showing the smallest U.S. trade deficit in 17 years -- along with expectations that the Friday, Jan. 9, release of U.S. jobs numbers for December could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut later this month -- added to the bullish sentiment. Oil futures settled higher Friday with their biggest weekly advance in three months as market participants covered short positions amid fresh buying in... The rally got off to an early start on news that U.S. President Donald Trump had approved a bipartisan Senate bill to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, including China and India, in bid to further restrict the Kremlin's energy revenues over the Ukraine war. Data from Wednesday, Jan. 7, by the Energy Information Administration showing U.S. commercial crude stocks declining by a combined 5.7 million bbl over the past two weeks was a catalyst as well to the early run-up in oil. Market momentum picked up after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the October trade balance at $29.4 billion versus Wall Street's forecast of $58.9 billion. Analysts noted that it was the smallest deficit since 2009. Futures markets have priced in a 90% probability that the Fed will hold U.S. rates steady in a range of between 3.5% and 3.75% at its Jan. 28 policy decision. But some economists say the central bank might consider another 25-basis point cut this month, like it did three times last year, if the U.S. unemployment rate hits a four-year high of 4.7% in Friday's jobs data. The NYMEX WTI contract for February delivery settled up by $1.77, or 3.2%, at $57.76 bbl. It was the highest percentage rise for a front-month contract in U.S. crude since July 29. ICE Brent for March delivery closed up by $2.03, or 3.4%, at $61.99. RBOB futures for February climbed by $0.0738 to $1.7929 gallon while the front-month ULSD for February advanced by $0.07473 to $2.1314.

Oil Prices Climb as Geopolitical Risk Rises Rapidly | OilPrice.com -Oil prices continued to climb in early Asian trade on Friday morning after posting a sharp increase on Thursday, with the market again pricing in geopolitical risk across multiple key producers and shipping routes.At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate was trading around $58.27 per barrel, up by 0.85% or $0.49. On Thursday, both WTI and Brent climbed by over 3%, with Brent on the brink of breaking the $62 mark. Venezuela remained a major driver of the risk premium after the U.S. escalated enforcement against sanctioned flows by seizing two Venezuela-linked oil tankers in the Atlantic on Wednesday, including one sailing under Russia’s flag, amid an intensifying push to constrain Venezuelan crude movements. One of those seizures was of a Venezuela-linked tanker that had been renamed and registered under a Russian flag after a weeks-long pursuit across the Atlantic. The willingness of the Trump administration to board a tanker under the apparent protection of Russia was a clear warning for the shadow fleet being used to avoid sanctions.Meanwhile, the risk of a major supply shock related to Iran is climbing as protests swept the country, leading to a nationwide internet blackout. President Trump's earlier threat to come to the rescue of any peaceful protesters killed by the Iranian regime adds to concerns in oil markets that these protests could result in direct action by the U.S. in Iran.Developments in Iran's neighbor, Iraq, added to the broader geopolitical support for crude, as the cabinet approved plans to nationalize operations at the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield to avert potential disruptions linked to U.S. sanctions on Russian stakeholder Lukoil. While that won't lead to an immediate export outage, the prospect of operational or contractual instability at one of the world’s largest oilfields is adding to supply uncertainty.Finally, a Russia-bound oil tanker was attacked by a drone in the Black Sea, prompting a request for Turkish Coast Guard assistance and a course diversion. While no party has claimed responsibility for the attack, it does highlight further instability in the region and a broader threat to oil flows.Geopolitical risk risen rapidly at the start of the year and, even in a heavily oversupplied market, is pushing prices higher on concerns of a significant supply disruption.

Oil prices gain on concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela, Iran - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday, set for their third weekly gain, on uncertainty about the future of supply from Venezuela and as Iranian unrest increases concerns about output there. Brent futures rose 40 ⁠cents, or 0.7%, to $62.39 per barrel at 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.11. Both benchmark prices climbed ⁠more than ‌3% on Thursday, following two straight days of declines, and Brent is set to climb 2.7% for the week, while WTI has gained 1.4% for the week. "Bottlenecks in the flow of sanctioned barrels and steady demand signals appear ⁠to counter the backdrop of an oversupplied 2026, at least for now," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "Escalation in geopolitical stress adds to the current momentum in oil prices." Prices have gained following U.S. President Donald Trump's seizure of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro last week and his claims the U.S. will control the South American country's oil sector. Civil unrest in major Middle ⁠Eastern producer Iran and concerns about the spread of the Russia-Ukraine war to target Russian oil exports have also increased supply concerns. "The price surge has been primarily due to Trump's claim to control Venezuela's oil ‍export, which could see a price increase from previously discounted sales," said Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ. Oil major Chevron Corp, global trading houses Vitol and Trafigura, and other firms are competing for U.S. government deals to export crude oil from Venezuela, according to sources familiar with the matter. Trump has demanded that Venezuela give the U.S. full access to its oil sector just days after it captured Maduro on Saturday. U.S. officials have said Washington will control the country's oil sales and revenues indefinitely. The companies are contesting initial deals to market the up to 50 million barrels of oil that state-run oil company PDVSA has accumulated in inventories amid a severe oil embargo that has involved four tanker seizures, two of the sources said. "The market will focus on the outcome in the coming days for how the Venezuelan oil in storage will be sold and delivered. Oversupply concerns could remain a concern if there is no limitation on sales," said Teng. Oil prices surged after ⁠several subdued days, partly correcting earlier neglect of geopolitical risks, Haitong Futures said in a ‌report on Friday. A nationwide internet blackout was reported in Iran on Thursday, internet monitoring group NetBlocks said, as protests in the capital Tehran and the major cities of Mashhad and Isfahan and other areas around the country over economic hardships continued. Still, global inventories are rising, ‌and oversupply remains the main ⁠driver that could cap the gain, Haitong Futures said. Unless risks around Iran escalate, the rebound is likely limited and hard to sustain, Haitong ⁠Futures added.

Oil jumps more than 2% to post third weekly gain amid Venezuela and Iran supply risks -Oil prices jumped by more than 2 per cent on Friday and posted a third consecutive weekly gain as tensions in major Opec members Venezuela and Iran stoked supply concerns. Crude, which rallied 3 per cent at the close on Thursday, extended gains because of risks associated with US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs of 500 per cent on countries that buy Russian oil, seeking to break the deadlock in Moscow's peace talks with Ukraine. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, gained 2.18 per cent to settle at $63.34 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, added 2.35 per cent to close at $59.12 per barrel. From last Friday’s close, Brent and WTI rose more than 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. Crude prices fell about 20 per cent in 2025 as geopolitical and economic pressures affected markets. Venezuelan gold rush The US is considering more action against Venezuela, following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. He has appeared in federal court in New York to face charges including drug trafficking. After taking over Venezuelan oil assets, the US plans to sell 30 million to 50 million barrels of crude worth $2 billion in the markets. Mr Trump also plans to hold talks with American oil companies, which have been encouraged to enter Venezuela and develop its oil reserves – the largest in the world. Relations between the Trump administration and Venezuela’s political and military leaders are critical variables that will determine the course of matters such as oil, said Jim Burkhard, vice president for oil markets at S&P Global. But he does not expect the developments in Venezuela to alter S&P Global's view of a 1.4 million barrel per day global crude stock build in the first quarter of 2026. "There is risk relative to our outlook in the near term, both to the upside [up 200,000 bpd] and downside [down 350,000 bpd] in terms of production and exports, but not enough either way to significantly alter the global oil balance in the first quarter," Mr Burkhard said. The White House intends to keep sanctions on Venezuelan oil in place as influence against the country's interim leadership. But the easing of sanctions would only allow Venezuelan crude production to return to its previous 1.1 million bpd level, analysts at London market intelligence firm Energy Aspects said. Chevron, the only US oil company currently operating in Venezuela, and major trading houses Trafigura and Vitol are among the organisations reportedly competing to secure deals from Washington to export oil from Venezuela. "Traders are closely watching for the potential impact of regime change on Venezuela’s oil production, reflecting hopes for a swift upswing ... however, excitement about a rapid rebound in Venezuelan oil output risks putting the cart before the horse," Energy Aspects said. "Even with Mr Maduro gone, the path to recovery will be uneven. If Mr Trump is satisfied with how Venezuela acts over the next few weeks or months, he may start to reshape oil sanctions." In Iran, protests over economic woes entered a 13th day on Friday amid a nationwide internet blackout, further increasing supply concerns. Iran is the world's seventh largest producer of crude. Markets are also keeping an eye on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction this year. Mr Trump has pushed for lower interest rates, arguing it would help to boost the world's largest economy. The Fed's decisions remain a critical macro driver for oil markets in 2026, primarily through its influence on economic growth, inflation expectations, the strength of the US dollar and broader risk sentiment, said Yousef Alshammari, president of the London College of Energy Economics. "Markets and many economists price in more easing ... potentially starting as early as March or June, driven by labour market softness and political pressures, which could weaken the dollar [and be a] modest upside for Brent and WTI," he said.

At Least 80 Separatists Killed as Saudi-Backed Forces Retake South Yemen Cities - The situation in southern Yemen seems to be coming to a head once again, with the Saudi-backed “National Resistance Forces” entering into direct conflict with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group that controls an ever-growing amount of Yemen’s south.The STC grew out of long-standing secessionist ambitions in southern Yemen, which was merged into North Yemen in 1990. When Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in 2015, the STC pretty quickly emerged and started contesting control of the southern part of the country, which was effectively all the Saudis ever managed to control to begin with.As it stands, the STC controlled almost all of what was once South Yemen, while the Saudi faction, which styles itself the real government of Yemen, controlled only a portion of Yemen’s western coast. The Shi’ite Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, control Yemen’s capital city and a large portion of what used to be North Yemen, an area where most of Yemen’s population lives.This came to another head with recent fighting between the Saudi-backed faction and the STC, leading the STC to declare their intention to hold a referendum on independence from Yemen, and a warning that if fighting continued they’d eschew the referendum for a unilateral declaration of independence. Fighting hasn’t stopped, and between heavy airstrikes and ground conflicts, at least 80 STC fighters have been reported killed since Friday, with over 150 wounded and another 130 captured by the Saudis and their affiliate forces.The Saudi-backed faction claims that all the facilities in the key port city of Mukallah have been retaken and are under their control now. Mukallah is the capital of the key southeastern Hadhramaut Governorate, which extends north into the mountains along the Saudi border.The claim extended later to say that the Saudi-backed forces control all the districts within Hadhramaut Governorate, and that they had further retaken all of the al-Mahra Governorate. Mahra is the relatively sparsely populated easternmost part of Yemen, along the Oman border. Territorily, that’s a substantial amount of southern Yemen that has changed hands in the offensive. Hadhramaut is considered far more important because of the natural resources within the mountainous north, though Mukallah is also an import port.The STC retains South Yemen’s largest city, Aden, however, and while this was a relatively high-profile loss in the decade of historical clashes between UAE-backed and Saudi-backed forces over control of South Yemen, it’s unlikely that the fighting of the last few days is anything like a decisive battle.

Saudis Launch New Strikes on South Yemen as Separatist Delegation ‘Disappears’ in Riyadh - Fighting between UAE-backed separatists and Saudi-backed forces in Southern Yemen seem to be further escalating today, with Saudi-brokered peace talks seemingly in ruins and Saudi forces carrying out heavy airstrikes against the separatist STC’s positions.Indications are that the talks never actually got a chance to begin. The STC sent a delegation of some 50 people to Riyadh for the talks, and after their plane was delayed for three hours they arrived, were ushered onto a bus by Saudi officials, and were never seen again. The STC is reporting that they have had no contact with their delegation since they were put on the bus, and all their phones were switched off. At the same time, Saudi warplanes started bombing the STC again, at the time when talks were nominally meant to just be getting underway. The Yemeni “government,” which is a Saudi-backed faction that controls little of Yemen’s actual territory, used this opportunity to oust the STC entirely from their coalition government, and accused top STC leader Aidrous al-Zubaidi of fleeing rather than going to Riyadh as ordered. It’s not clear what Zubaidi’s status is, but if he indeed didn’t go to Riyadh, that suggests that he’s still present within Yemen and not simply disappeared. Given what apparently happened to the rest of the delegation, it might well have been prudent for him to not attend.Forces loyal to the “government” officials attacked more STC targets in the interim capital city of Aden. This included the airport and the presidential palace. Pro-Saudi forces also claimed the easternmost governorates of Hadhramaut and al-Mahra in offensives over the weekend, killing at least 80 STC fighters in the process.With heavy Saudi warplane backing, the goal seems to be to prop up a non-separatist force with meaningful territory in south Yemen, though the Saudis have been trying to do this for over a decade with only intermittent success, and styling their faction as anything resembling the rightful government of Yemen means little in practice for a country that’s been torn apart and which they haven’t controlled significant territory within for years.

Yemen Separatist Leader Flees to UAE; Saudis Declares Him a ‘Fugitive’ - Adding to questions about the situation in southern Yemen, STC President Aidarous Zubaidi hasreportedly fled the country and arrived in the United Arab Emirates. The Saudi military accused the UAE of smuggling him out of the country by way of Somaliland.The separatist STC movement has been seeking to reassert South Yemen as an independent country for years, and Saudi-backed forces attacked them over the weekend, reclaiming territory in the country’s southeast, leading the Saudis to offer to host negotiations between the two sides in Riyadh. Talks were agreed to, and an STC delegation departed for Riyadh early morning Wednesday.That’s where things get strange, as after a flight delay, the STC negotiating team went to Riyadh, was loaded into a bus by Saudi officials, and promptly disappeared. The STC officials who remained in Yemen said they had lost all contact with them, though by Thursday morning, some media were reporting the Saudis were holding talks with the delegation.While this was going on, Saudi forces attacked the Dhale Governorate and the city of Aden, and the Saudi-backed government expelled STC from their coalition government while Saudi warplanes were pounding the country. Zubaidi apparently made his way out of the country, to Somaliland and later to Mogadishu, where he was flown to Abu Dhabi. The Saudis are now calling him a “fugitive” and claiming he committed “high treason” against the government which the Saudis have been propping up for 15 years, but which until the weekend didn’t control much of any territory.The government now claims to control Aden, after the fighting, though the STC has claimed to retake the al-Mahra Governorate from them, and the odds of anything being resolved by the Riyadh talks that may or may not be happening seems uncertain, at best. Southern Yemen seems, as ever, in a state of uncertainty, with multiple rival factions vying for control.

Israeli Officials Use US Venezuela Attack To Threaten Iran - Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who now leads the opposition in the Knesset, used the US attack on Venezuela to issue a threat to Iran, as the US and Israel are moving toward another war against the Islamic Republic.“The regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela,” Lapid wrote on X after the US bombed Caracas and abducted President Nicolas Maduro. Amichai Chikli, Israel’s diaspora minister, said that the attack delivered a blow to the “global axis of evil” and sent a “clear message” to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US assault on Caracas came after President Trump appeared to threaten war with Iran over the protests taking place inside the country.“If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, responded to Trump’s threat by warning that if the US attacks, US troops in the region would be targeted.“Moreover, the disrespectful President of America should also know that with this official admission, all American centers and forces across the entire region will be legitimate targets for us in response to any potential adventurism; Iranians have always been united and determined to act in the face of an aggressor enemy,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.

Israeli Minister: Gaza Is 'Ours,' Palestinians Are Just 'Guests' Who Will Leave - Miki Zohar, Israel’s culture minister and member of the ruling Likud party, has claimed Gaza belongs to Israel and referred to the Palestinians who live there as “guests” who will one day leave.Zohar made the comments on Thursday when asked about his decision to cut government funding to an Israeli film award that went to “The Sea,” a move that depicts a Palestinian boy from the Israeli-occupied West Bank being denied an entry permit to visit the beach in Israel.When pressed about why he opposed a movie that depicts the reality of the Israeli occupation, Zohar denied there was an occupation at all and claimed Israel had the right to Gaza and the West Bank, which he referred to as Judea and Samaria. “Judea and Samaria are ours,” Zohar said. “Gaza is also ours. We’re just letting them stay there as guests until a certain point, but Gaza is ours.”Other Israeli officials have expressed similar sentiments after Israel and Hamas signed a US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal, which the IDF continues to violate by launching attacks against Palestinians and conducting daily military operations.Just a few days after the US-backed deal was signed, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrichvowed there “will be Jewish settlements” in Gaza. “So, we have patience, but we have determination, and faith, and with God’s help, we will continue the series of victories, and the big miracles,” he said.More recently, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli occupation of Gaza will be permanent and suggested Israel will establish a type of settlement that is established by IDF soldiers.“We are deep inside Gaza and will never leave all of Gaza – that will not happen. We are here to defend and to prevent what happened,” Katz said last month. “With God’s help, when the time comes, also in northern Gaza, we will establish Nahal pioneer groups in place of the settlements that were evacuated.”

Netanyahu: Gaza Border Crossing with Egypt Will Remain Closed Until Hamas Returns Final Hostage - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas must release the body of the final Israeli hostage before he allows aid to enter Gaza from Egypt. On Tuesday, the Israeli broadcast Kan News reports that Netanyahu received approval from President Donald Trump to keep the Rafah crossing closed until the remains of Sgt. Maj. Ran Gvili are returned to Israel. According to Itzik Gvili, Ran’s father, President Trump said that reconstruction of Gaza would not begin until his son’s body is returned to Israel. In October, Hamas and Tel Aviv agreed to a ceasefire and hostage exchange that was intended to bring an end to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. Hamas freed the 20 living Israeli hostages and returned the bodies of 27 of the 28 deceased captives. Finding some of the bodies is a difficult task as they are buried under the rubble of Gaza and the exact location of the remains may not be known. While Hamas has largely complied with the agreement, Israel has violated the truce daily. On Tuesday, Mosab Abu Toha reported a 14-year-old Palestinian boy, Hamad al-Fajim, was killed by an Israeli tank shell in Khan Younis. Additionally, Israel continues to restrict aid deliveries in Gaza. The Rafah crossing could provide a key lifeline of aid for the hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians suffering from a lack of food, shelter, clean water, and medical care.

Internet and phones cut in Iran as protesters heed exiled prince’s call for mass demonstration (AP) — Iran’s government cut off the country from the internet and international telephone calls Thursday night as a nighttime demonstration called by the country’s exiled crown prince drew a mass of protesters to shout from their windows and storm the streets. The protest that went on into Friday morning represented the first test of whether the Iranian public could be swayed by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, whose fatally ill father fled Iran just before the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Demonstrations have included cries in support of the shah, something that could bring a death sentence in the past but now underlines the anger fueling the protests that began over Iran’s ailing economy. The demonstrations that have popped up in cities and rural towns across Iran continued Thursday. More markets and bazaars shut down in support of the protesters. So far, violence around the demonstrations has killed at least 42 people while more than 2,270 others have been detained, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. The growth of the protests increases the pressure on Iran’s civilian government and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. CloudFlare, an internet firm, and the advocacy group NetBlocks reported the internet outage, both attributing it to Iranian government interference. Attempts to dial landlines and mobile phones from Dubai to Iran could not be connected. Such outages have in the past been followed by intense government crackdowns. Iranian state television’s 24-hour news channel did not acknowledge the internet outage that cut the nation over 85 million people off from the world, highlighting instead food subsidies in their 7 a.m. Friday broadcast. Meanwhile, the protests themselves have remained broadly leaderless. It remains unclear how Pahlavi’s call will affect the demonstrations moving forward. “The lack of a viable alternative has undermined past protests in Iran,” “There may be a thousand Iranian dissident activists who, given a chance, could emerge as respected statesmen, as labor leader Lech Wałęsa did in Poland at the end of the Cold War. But so far, the Iranian security apparatus has arrested, persecuted and exiled all of the country’s potential transformational leaders.”

Iran protests catch fire as Trump, Khamenei escalate war of words- President Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are escalating a war of words as the Islamic Republic cracks down on mass protests that saw buildings set on fire in cities across the country overnight Friday. Khamenei claimed Friday that nearly two weeks of protests amounted to rioters and “hirelings” acting on Trump’s behalf, in a barrage of social media posts that largely took aim at the U.S. president for his repeated threats to intervene militarily in Iran to protect demonstrators. “The US President who judges arrogantly about the whole world should know that tyrants & arrogant rulers of the world, such as Pharaoh, Nimrod, Mohammad Reza [Pahlavi] & other such rulers saw their downfall when they were at the peak of their hubris. He too will fall,” read a Friday post on Khamenei’s account on social platform X. Later in the day, Trump repeated warnings that he is prepared to strike against Iran if protesters are killed. The threats come as Trump has reveled in the military successes in capturing Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, Christmas strikes in Nigeria, and attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June. “Iran’s in big trouble. … I’ve made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved; we’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts,” Trump said Friday from the White House. “That doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very hard where it hurts. We don’t want that to happen.” Human rights groups have said that dozens of protesters have been killed since demonstrations first began Dec. 28, sparked by economic grievances but that have exploded into mass discontent with the regime. “The regime has likely determined that these protests represent an extremely dire security threat and has intensified its crackdown accordingly,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based public policy research organization, wrote in an analysis published Thursday. The regime has deployed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces in at least one province and possibly others, the institute wrote, describing the move as a “rare step.” “Protest activity in Iran has expanded dramatically in both rate and magnitude since January 7, including in major cities like Tehran and in northwestern Iran,” the institute wrote, recording 156 protests across 27 provinces. Trump’s remarks on the unrest can provide “wind beneath the wings of Iranian protesters,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. But he warned that Trump’s characterization of protesters as “rioters” and claims of protesters killed in “stampedes” risks legitimizing the Iranian regime’s crackdown. “That’s the way the regime tries to cast anyone with a political grievance is that it turns out they’re all rioters and thugs. This is classic Khamenei and it would be a mistake for the West to fall into that rhetorical trap,” he said. The Iranian government shut down the internet Thursday, with internet monitor NetBlocks recording the digital blackout for at least 24 hours.

Russia Repeats Long-Standing Objection To Any Deal That Puts NATO Troops in Ukraine - The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday repeated its long-standing objection to troops from NATO countries deploying to Ukrainian territory as part of a potential future peace deal, as Ukraine and its Western backers continue to push the idea. “The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warns that the deployment of military units, military facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of Western countries on Ukrainian territory will be classified as foreign intervention, posing a direct threat to the security of not only Russia but also other European countries,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. “All such units and facilities will be considered legitimate combat targets of the Russian Armed Forces,” Zakharova added. Her statement came after the UK and France signed a “declaration of intent”committing to lead a troop deployment to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the declaration “paves the way for the legal framework, under which British, French and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil,” though the document is lacking in details on what the force would actually look like.

Russia says it used new Oreshnik ballistic missile against Ukraine -- Russia said Friday it has used the new Oreshnik ballistic missile along with other weapons in a massive strike on Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said four people were killed and at least 22 wounded in the capital overnight. Russia didn’t say where Oreshnik hit, but Russian media and military bloggers said it targeted a huge underground natural gas storage facility in Ukraine’s western Lviv region. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia attacked Ukraine with 242 drones and a combination of 36 missiles. It said one medium-range ballistic missile was used, but did not specify this as the Oreshnik. It said this missile was launched from the Kasputin Yar test site in Russia’s Astrakhan region, believed to be the site of the Oreshnik missile launcher. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the attack was a retaliation to what Moscow said was a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence last month. Both Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump have rejected the Russian claim of the attack on Putin’s residence. The attack comes amid a new chill in relations between Moscow and Washington after Russia condemned the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker in the North Atlantic. It also comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled he is on board with a hard-hitting sanctions package meant to economically cripple Moscow.

Putin sends warning to Ukraine and West with weapon not used since 2024 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's launch of an Oreshnik hypersonic missile appears aimed at intimidating Ukraine and sending a signal of Russian military might to Europe and the United States at a crucial juncture in talks to end the war. Putin has repeatedly boasted of the speed and destructive power of the Oreshnik, which Russia first fired at Ukraine in November 2024. Since then, it has kept the weapon in reserve. The overnight Oreshnik strike in western Ukraine came after a week of setbacks for Russia. On Saturday, President Donald Trump sent U.S. special forces to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a close Putin ally, and on Wednesday U.S. forces seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the north Atlantic. On Tuesday, Britain and France announced plans to deploy troops in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire - prompting Moscow to respond that it would view foreign soldiers as legitimate combat targets. Gerhard Mangott, a Russia specialist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, said Moscow was frustrated at being sidelined during weeks of diplomacy between the U.S., Ukraine and the Europeans, and "particularly mad" about the planned potential troop deployment by Kyiv's European allies. The use of the Oreshnik should be seen in that context, he said. "It's a signal to the United States and the Europeans about the military capabilities of the Russian army," Mangott said in a telephone interview. He said Moscow wanted to convey that "Russia is to be taken seriously, given its military arsenal, and that the Europeans and Trump should return to a minimum of respect for the Russian position in the negotiations." The Oreshnik is capable of carrying nuclear as well as conventional warheads, although there was no suggestion of any nuclear component to the latest attack. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that the missile struck a state enterprise in the western city of Lviv and was likely carrying inert or "dummy" warheads - as in 2024, when Russia first fired it to test the weapon in war. "It does appear that at this point Russia is using Oreshnik for signaling purposes, so the destruction is not necessarily the goal," Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, told Reuters when asked if the use of dummy warheads would diminish the capacity of Moscow's action to intimidate Ukraine and its allies. "It's probably a general signal of resolve to escalate. My guess is that it will be read this way by the West," he said. Western reaction to the attack, around 60 km (40 miles) from Ukraine's border with NATO member Poland, was swift. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany called it "escalatory and unacceptable". European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said it was "a clear escalation against Ukraine and meant as a warning to Europe and to the U.S.". Russia specialist Mangott was sceptical about the official statement from Russia's Defence Ministry that the Oreshnik launch was in response to an alleged Ukraine drone strike targeting one of Putin's residences, in the northern region of Novgorod, late last month. Ukraine has denied any such attack took place, accusing Moscow of lying about it in order to derail peace talks. Several high-profile Russian war bloggers also criticised the official framing of the strike as a revenge attack. One, Yuri Baranchik, suggested it would have "looked more convincing" if Moscow had fired the missile at President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's bunker in Kyiv. Mick Ryan, an Australian military expert, linked the weapon's use to Russia's recent setbacks, especially over Venezuela. He said the point was "to demonstrate that Russia remains a nuclear-armed world power. In this guise, it is a psychological weapon – an instrument of Putin’s cognitive war against Ukraine and the West – rather than a weapon of mass physical destruction." Russian arch-hawk Dmitry Medvedev, a former president who is now deputy chairman of Putin's Security Council, alluded in a social media post to the capture of Maduro, the oil tanker seizure by the U.S. and the possibility of further U.S. sanctions against Russia, which he said had made for a "stormy" start to the year. In comments highly critical of Washington, he said international relations had descended into a madhouse and compared the Oreshnik strike to "a life-saving injection of haloperidol", an anti-psychotic drug. Prominent Russian war blogger Fighterbomber, a former military serviceman, said he thought the use of the Oreshnik was a display of power to convey a message and that Moscow would not be resorting to it often. He noted that some Oreshnik systems had been transferred to Belarus and that Russia would have some of its own in reserve, but suggested that there was not an endless supply of the relatively new missile. "Taking all these constants into account, we can assume that we can afford to conduct such demonstrations two or three times a year," he wrote. He expressed hope that no further launches would be needed for now, concluding: "The signals have been sent and they have been heard."