oil prices hit multi year lows w/ US supplies at 31 week high; natural gas prices hit 26 month high, gain most in 37 months

US oil prices hit a 22 month low, Brent hit a 39 month low, US natural gas prices hit a 26 week high on way to the biggest weekly gain since January 2022; US commercial crude supplies at a 31 week high; distillates’ production falls by the most in 47 months

US oil prices finished lower for a seventh consecutive week after OPEC agreed to end its production cuts in April and the EIA reported an unexpected and large US crude inventory build….after slipping 0.9% to $69.76 a barrel last week on bearish economic reports from the US and Germany and on unexpected builds in US distillates and gasoline supplies, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for April delivery edged higher in overseas trading on Monday, as upbeat manufacturing data from China led to renewed optimism for fuel demand, even as uncertainty about a Ukraine peace deal and potential US tariffs loomed, but erased its gains and sold off by mid-morning in New York on headlines that OPEC+ had decided to proceed with a planned April output increase, and settled $1.39 or 2% lower at a 12-week low of $68.37 a barrel on reports that OPEC would proceed with its planned oil output increase in April and on worries that US tariffs would hurt global economic growth and oil demand…oil prices continued their decline on global markets Tuesday following the report that OPEC+ planned to stick to its production increase for April, while markets braced for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as retaliatory tariffs from Beijing against Washington, and continued to sell off during the US session on Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, since the growing distance between the U.S. and Ukraine increased the possibility of sanctions relief for Russia, but later bounced off its low and traded back towards its open​ing price ahead of the close ​t​o settle 11 cent lower at $68.26 a barrel on OPEC+’s plans to increase production in April​, and ​on news of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as well as Beijing's retaliatory tariffs…oil prices crashed on overseas markets Wednesday, with the international benchmark Brent falling to 2021 lows, after an API report of a surprise US inventory build, while the cost of Oman crude on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange fell below Brent crude for the first time since late 2024 on the expected OPEC supply surge, then hit multi year lows in New York after the EIA weekly petroleum status report showed a larger than expected build in crude stocks, ​but pared some losses to settle $1.95 lower at $66.31 a barrel on U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico after ​larger-than-expected U.S. crude oil stockpiles added a further headwind to OPEC+ plans to increase output in April…oil prices recovered slightly from multi-year lows on Asian markets Thursday, amid pressures from trade tariffs between the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as OPEC+ plans to raise production, and recovered further in New York after the U.S. announced that it would exempt automakers from the 25% tariffs imposed against Canada and Mexico, but settled just 5 cents higher at $66.31a barrel in choppy trading, remaining under pressure from tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and China, and plans by OPEC+ to raise output…oil prices were little changed on Asian markets on Friday, remaining on course for their steepest weekly decline since October, as uncertainty over US tariff policies dampened demand outlooks, while rising global supply added further pressure, but began an ascent in London trading after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced strict sanctions on the Russian and Iranian energy sectors, and settled the New York session 68 cents, or 1% higher at $67.04 a barrel after a report of a U.S. plan to refill its strategic oil reserve, but still finished 3.9% lower for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the fourth time in five weeks after Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian gas and on record flows to LNG export plants…after falling 7.1% to $3.834 per mmBTU last week on record well output and milder weather forecasts, the price of the benchmark contract for April natural gas delivery opened 6.2 cents higher on Monday and rallied through midday​, due to short-covering and updated bullish weather forecasts​, to settle 28.8 cents higher at per mmBTU on record flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than was previously expected…natural gas prices opened 19.9 cents higher Tuesday and resumed its overnight rally to $4.549 by 11:30AM, the highest intraday mark since December 2023, after Trump’s new tariffs had taken effect Tuesday morning, but withdrew throughout the afternoon to settle 22.8 cents, or nearly 6% higher at a 26 month high of $4.350 per mmBTU on record flows to LNG export plants and on worries that gas exports from Canada to the U.S. would decline due to the just imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico…natural gas prices opened 7 cents higher on Wednesday to begin a volatile session that saw prices fall to an intraday low $4.265 at 9:20AM and rise to an intraday high of $4.477 at 1:45PM, as traders balanced numerous market factors, before settling 10.0 cents higher at another 26 month high of $4.450 per mmBTU largely due to Trump’s tariffs on Canadian natural gas…natural gas prices opened 5.5 cents lower on Thursday and slid lower from there, after a bearish storage report hit the wire, and settled down 14.8 cents or 3.3% at $4.302 per mmBTU on record well output and the EIA report showing last week's storage draw was smaller than expected…natural gas prices extended that decline in early trading Friday as milder weather forecasts added to bearish selling pressure triggered by Thursday’s lighter-than-expected storage draw, then flipped positive in midday trading as traders taking a longer view erased a 17-cent day/day decline notched in the morning, and settled 9.7 cents higher at $4.399 per mmBTU as colder-than-usual weather fueled concerns over supply replenishment ahead of summer​, when demand typically increases for air condition​ing, and thus finished with a 14.1% increase for the week, the biggest weekly gain since January 2022…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending February 28th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 80 billion cubic feet to 1,760 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 585 billion cubic feet, or 24.9% below the 2,345 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on February 28th of last year, and 224 billion cubic feet, or 11.3% less than the five-year average of 1,984 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 28th of February over the most recent five years….the 80 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 92 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, but was more than the 56 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in February of 2024, while ​it was close to the average 94 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same end of February week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 28th indicated that after a decrease in our refining and an increase in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the fifth time in six weeks and the for the 13th time in thirty-five weeks, in spite of modestly lower imports...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 106,000 barrels per day to average 5,813,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average 98,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 52,000 barrels per day to average 4,136,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,667,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending February 28th, an average of 54,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 551,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 6,000 barrels per day higher at 13,508,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,726,000 barrels per day during the February 28th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,387,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 28th, an average of 346,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 516,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending February 21st averaged a rounded 168,000 barrels per day less than what was being added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +168,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 391,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 559,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are useless….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 516,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 516,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while oil supplies in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged for the third​ straight week, after increasing​ weekly since November 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,965,000 barrels per day last week, which was 10.7% less than the 6,682,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 6,000 barrels per day higher at 13,508,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 2,000 barrels per day higher at 13,065,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 443,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.3% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 85.9% of their capacity while processing those 15,387,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 28th, down from their 86.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, and down from the 91.7% utilization rate of seven weeks earlier, reflecting the impact of ​J​anuary's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and also the beginning o   f ​US refinery’s Spring maintenance….the 15,387,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.8% more than the 15,268,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the cold impacted week ending March 1st of 2024, but 2.0% less than the 15,696,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending February 28th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.9%, also somewhat low for this time of year…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was ​q​quite a bit higher, increasing by 464,000 barrels per day to 9,634,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 28th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 20,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was fractionally more than the 9,626,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending March 1st of last year, but was 1.3% less than the gasoline production of 9,757,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending February 21st, 2020….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 587,000 barrels per day to 4,575,000 barrels per day, the largest decrease in 47 months, after our distillates output had increased by 439,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that big production decrease, our distillates output was 5.3% more than the 4,345,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 1st of 2024, but ​was 1.6% less than the 4,648,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending February 28th, 2020…

Even with this week’s big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the third time in sixteen weeks, decreasing by 1,433,000 barrels to 246,838,000 barrels during the week ending February 28th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 369,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 423,000 barrels per day to 8,877,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of gasoline fell by 33,000 barrels per day to 816,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 141,000 barrels per day to 603,000 barrels per day.…After thirty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.0% higher than last March 1st’s gasoline inventories of 239,745,000 barrels, and were 1% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the big decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the fifteenth time in twenty-four weeks, decreasing by 1,318,000 barrels to 119,154,000 barrels during the week ending February 28th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 3,908,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 106,000 to 3,991,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates rose by 164,000 barrels per day to 1,041,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 101,000 barrels per day to 269,000 barrels per day...After 34 inventory withdrawals over the past 59 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.8% above the 117,010,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 1st of 2024, and about 6% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the decrease in our oil refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 21st time over the past year, increasing by 3,614,000 barrels over the week, from 430,161,000 barrels on February 21st to 433,775,000 barrels on February 28th, after oil supplies had decreased by 2,332,000 barrels over the prior week… After that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 32% above the average of our available crude oil stocks after the end of February over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this February 28th were 3.3% less than the 448,530,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 1st of 2024, and 9.3% less than the 478,513,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March ​2nd 2023, but were 5.4% more than the 411,562,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on March 3rd of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count fell for the first time in six weeks after rebounding from a three year low hit seven weeks ago, as oil futures prices are close to the breakeven level for most drillers...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 21st, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 14th) and this week’s (February 21st) count, the third column shows last week’s February 14th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 23rd of February, 2024…

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Activists protest at Ohio Statehouse over oil and gas extraction, wastewater injection -- Cleveland.com - – More than 40 people gathered outside the Ohio Statehouse Thursday to voice their opposition to oil and gas extraction and wastewater injection in Ohio.Braving wind and bitter cold, they criticized state lawmakers for allowing the gas industry to drill for natural gas underneath state parks and public lands. And they lashed out at regulators for what they described as overly lax oversight of injection wells, where operators inject toxic brine deep underground at high pressure.

Antis Rally at OH Statehouse to Protest Fossil Fuels They Were Wearing - Marcellus Drilling News -Sorry to be so blunt: You can’t fix stupid. You can only call attention to it, which is what we’re doing with a group of “40 to 50” protesters who gathered yesterday at the Ohio Statehouse to protest drilling for oil and gas under state-owned land, including drilling under (not on) state parks. It was cold and blustery, so they get props for coming out in the foul weather. However, all of the clothes they wore, including the coats, hats, mittens, gloves, boots, not to mention their signage, the glasses some of them wore, the cell phones in their pockets, the bullhorn and podium the used—were all made from the very oil and gas they were protesting. Not to mention none of them arrived there by horse and buggy or by walking. They all drove vehicles made from and powered by fossil fuels. Do they realize how ridiculous they looked? No, we suppose not.

OH Dem Intros Bill to Force Disclosure of Frack Chemical Names - Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2023, Ohio House Bill (HB) 507 became law with the signature of Gov. Mike DeWine (see OH Gov. Signs Bill Expanding Drilling in State Parks, NatGas “Green”). The law allows shale drilling under (but not on top of) Ohio state-owned land, including state parks. HB 507 encourages (pushes for) more drilling under state-owned land. Since that time, lefty Democrats have tried their best to bully, berate, and otherwise block drilling under (not on) state-owned land. Their histrionics can be quite amusing (take a gander at the nutballs pictured in this post: Ohio O&G Commission Approves More Fracking Under State Lands). The newest tactic from the left comes via a Democrat member of the Ohio House who introduced legislation requiring oil and gas well owners to publicly disclose chemicals used in drilling operations within state parks before they drill or frack.

EPA investigates oil spill in Little Cuyahoga River -The Environmental Protection Agency is investigating an oil spill in the Little Cuyahoga River in Akron. Around 4:40 p.m., according to the City of Akron, the Akron Fire Department received a call to the intersection of East Market and Massilon Road to investigate a report of unknown oil in the river. A hazmat team arrived at the scene to contain the spill, and the EPA and other fire department officials were also called to assess the incident. On Monday, the Ohio EPA said the spill was petroleum traced to a vacant industrial building and was less than 100 gallons in volume. Some of the spill made it into a storm drain that flowed into the Little Cuyahoga River, but "containment measures" prevented it from flowing further downstream. No drinking water, wildlife or aquatic life was threatened by the spill, the Ohio EPA said.

EOG Commits to 2 Rigs, 1 Frac Crew in Ohio Utica; Needs Infra. -- Marcellus Drilling News - EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns nearly a half million acres of leases in the Ohio Utica (~460,000 acres). EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. During the company’s fourth quarter and full-year update, we learned that EOG has fully committed to operating two rigs and one frac crew in the Ohio Utica in 2025. Looking back at 2024, the company drilled and completed 25 Utica wells. Looking forward to 2025, the plan is to drill and complete another 30 new Utica wells.

Utica Oil Player Ascent Resources 'Considering' an IPO -- Privately held Utica Shale oil producer Ascent Resources is considering an IPO or an M&A exit, it told investors and analysts in a call March 7.But going the IPO or M&A-exit route versus continuing as-is would require the public market—or a buyer—to throw more cash to the 2.2 Bcfe/d operator’s existing investors than they’re already earning in distributions and buybacks, executives said.Of its fourth-quarter output, 14% was liquids, all from eastern Ohio: 51,554 bbl/d, from its 918 operated Utica wells, consisting of 14,011 bbl/d of oil and 37,543 bbl/d of NGL.“We certainly spend a lot of time—both among ourselves and with our board—discussing the IPO markets … and the M&A markets” as well as on continuing as-is, CFO Brooks Shughart said on the call.“We have a significant amount of dialogue across all three of those potential options. And I'd say we are considering how we may or may not play a part in all those.”Jeff Fisher, chairman and CEO, said that, among Ascent’s shareholders, “with the free-cash-flow generation that the business is now throwing off … everybody's very pleased, happy.”And there’s more to come, he added.“We've got an opportunity in front of us to increase that substantially this year. That's … really our focus and we sit in a very, very good position,” he said.But “it’s great to have options.”Ascent’s plan is to “continue to run the business and optimize the business as best we can on a go-it-alone basis for at least for a little bit,” Shughart said in the call.Ascent is a Top 5 producer in Ohio’s Utica oil fairway, along with newly public Infinity Natural Resources, privately held Encino Energy, publicly held EOG Resources and Expand Energy, which picked up its Ohio position in an Oct. 1 merger with Southwestern Energy.Infinity’s IPO on Jan. 31 valued its leasehold, including in the Utica oil window and in the Marcellus Shale’s gas window, at $52,700 per flowing boe/d.Fisher said, “It's good to see the markets returning. We've had a lot of interest [in Ascent] obviously.“But we're being pretty measured in how we approach that going forward from a position of strength.”Attention was drawn to the Utica’s oil fairway when EOG announced in 2022 that it had accumulated a position, which now totals 460,000 net acres.The majority was picked up from Encino, which had bought most of its position from Chesapeake Energy, which is now known as Expand.Fisher said, “The volatile oil window sure has gotten a lot of attention and rightfully so. It's been kind of a well-kept secret for a long time and we remain very excited about it, and we'll continue to focus on it.”As for whether Ascent would be on the buyside of an M&A deal—and of property outside the Utica too—"we obviously look with interest across the U.S. at various opportunities,” Fisher said.“But our dollars are best spent on where we can maximize margins and basically riff off of the great franchise that we built here in the Utica.”Shughart said there are deals out there. “There are smaller land deals [of] 10s to 20s of millions of dollars all the way up to multi-billion-dollar opportunities.”But, he said, “we are focused on the cash flow.”In 2022, Ascent bought Exxon Mobil’s XTO Energy subsidiary out of Ohio’s Utica for $270 million. The deal followed others totaling $1.5 billion from Hess Corp., CNX Resources Corp., Utica Minerals Development and an undisclosed seller.Ascent’s leasehold totals 375,600 net acres in the Utica’s volatile oil, wet gas and dry gas windows, including 76,600 mineral acres.It also holds some sections of acreage in the mostly undeveloped Utica black oil fairway, in which EOG is looking at 3D seismic now. EOG picked up another 15,000 acres in Ascent’s neighborhood recently in the volatile oil window.Fisher said, “We are looking to add to our inventory all the time. …We're essentially replacing our inventory each year as we go.”In the oil window, a position in Guernsey County was part of its founding leasehold. “It's really the best rock, so that's really our focus,” Fisher said.Ascent’s four-well Lodge development in Guernsey County, Washington township, came online on Oct. 19 and produced 488,678 bbl of oil combined in its first 74 days, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources data.Associated gas and NGLs totaled 1.3 Bcfe. Lateral lengths were not disclosed. Into 2025, the Lodge pad’s first-90-day output averaged more than 6,500 bbl of oil/d and 2,600 bbl/d of NGL, totaling more than 9,100 bbl/d of liquids, Keith Yankowsky, Ascent COO, said on the call.

Shale a “Game Changer” for Youngstown, OH Compressor Company - Marcellus Drilling News - How often have we read that shale energy doesn’t create jobs and isn’t the economic boom to local communities as advertised. The enviro-left peddles the lie that oil and gas companies get fat on profits while everyone else suffers. We have the perfect story that exposes the left’s lies about the economic benefits of shale energy—and it comes from Youngstown, OH. Dearing Compressor & Pump designs and manufactures compressor packages for three major business lines including natural gas pipelines.

Gulfport Targets More NGLs & Crude Production in Ohio for 2025 | Marcellus Drilling News - Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 numbers last week. The company drills Utica and Marcellus wells in Ohio. It also has an active drilling program in the Oklahoma SCOOP shale play. Gulfport’s net daily production in 4Q24 averaged 1,055.5 MMcfe/d (1.06 Bcfe/d), down slightly from 4Q23’s average of 1,063.3 MMcfe/d. Gulfport’s net daily production for the full year of 2024 averaged 1.05 Bcfe/d, consisting of 841.7 MMcfe/d in the Utica and Marcellus and 212.4 MMcfe/d in the SCOOP. Put another way, the M-U produced 80% of the company's production. For the full year of 2024, Gulfport’s net daily production mix comprised approximately 92% natural gas, 6% NGLs, and 2% oil and condensate. According to the 4Q update, Gulfport plans to boost liquids production by 30% in 2025.

Smart Sand Predicts Growth of Frac Sand for Utica Drillers in 2025- Marcellus Drilling News -Smart Sand is a fully integrated frac and industrial sand supply and services company, offering complete mine to wellsite proppant and logistics solutions to frac sand customers and a broad offering of products for industrial sand customers. The company produces low-cost, high quality Northern White sand, a premium sand used as a proppant to enhance hydrocarbon recovery rates in the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells. The company’s main markets are the Bakken and Marcellus. However, the company is increasingly supplying sand to Ohio Utica drillers.

16 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 24 – Mar 2 -- Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Feb 24 – Mar 2, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells increased by a couple. Four weeks ago, 24 new permits were issued. Three weeks ago, the number increased to 36 new permits. Two weeks ago, the number deflated, going down to 14. Last week, we added two permits for a total of 16 new permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued just one new permit, which went to Snyder Brothers for a well in Armstrong County. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | ENERGY COMPANIES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY

Oil & Gas Advisory Board To Hear DEP Update On Water, Wastewater Shale Gas Well Development Pipelines; Methane Migration; Guidance On Dewatering Impoundments March 20 DEP’s Oil and Gas Technical Advisory Board is scheduled to meet on March 20 to hear updates on water and wastewater shale gas well development pipelines, methane migration and guidance on dewatering water impoundments.Also on the agenda are the federally-funded conventional oil and gas well plugging program, oil and gas wastewater injection well permitting and other topics.Dan Counahan, Director of the Bureau of Oil and Gas Operations, is on the agenda to provide an update on the hundreds of miles of water and wastewater pipelines that carry millions of gallons of water used to develop shale gas wells.There have been a series of significant incidents of water pipelines splitting and breaking releasing water that contaminated drinking water wells and streams.The water wells of several families in Cameron County were contaminated after a Seneca Resources wastewater pipeline ruptured and spilled an estimated 18,000 gallons of wastewater. Read more here.A Range Resources water pipeline whipped around like a garden hose after suffering a blowout that launched a “pig” sent through the line to clean it into the air. Read more here. In another, a CNX wastewater pipeline continued pumping for 24+ hours after it was punctured by earth moving equipment. Read more here.Water intakes and related freshwater pipelines have also caused issues, notably in the Exceptional Value Loyalsock Watershed in Lycoming County where a water intake and related pipelines resulted in significant water quality violations that threatened the habitat of the Eastern Hellbender as they crossed the stream. Read more here. Real questions have been raised about how many miles of each type of water and wastewater pipelines and whether they are even mapped. Other questions include whether any agency regulates how the pipelines themselves are constructed (materials, construction, maintenance methods), how they are secured to prevent ruptures and whether there are any comprehensive standards for their operation and continuous monitoring.[The answer to that is the Public Utility Commission has no jurisdiction and DEP doesn’t have standards on construction or operation of these frequently high pressure pipelines.] There are also questions about how and when water well owners and public water suppliers are notified of spills that could affect them.DEP proposed draft Technical Guidance for Maintaining Freeboard and Dewatering Well Development Impoundments for shale gas well development on January 4. Read more here.The guidance outlines how shale gas well owners can develop a plan to prevent pollution to the waters of this Commonwealth as it relates to land application of excess water from a well development impoundment for maintaining freeboard while the impoundment is in use and also for dewatering the impoundment of all water prior to decommissioning it for restoration.The public comment period closed February 3.

DEP Orders Energy Transfer/Sunoco To Install Water Treatment Systems In Over 200 Homes Impacted By Petroleum Products Pipeline Leak In Bucks County -- On March 6, the Department of Environmental Protection issued an order to Energy Transfer/Sunoco to provide water to residents in Upper Makefield Township, Bucks County affected by a leak in Energy Transfer’s 14-inch jet fuel/petroleum products pipeline. Energy Transfer will be required to install point-of-entry-treatment systems to over 100 homes in the Mt. Eyre neighborhood and remediate the affected areas. To date, treatment systems have been installed at 42 residences, six of which had results above drinking water standards for petroleum products, with detectable contamination at other residences. Energy Transfer has agreed to install at least 102 more treatment systems at the request of homeowners.The point-of-entry treatment filtration systems that have been installed are designed to remove all contaminants from drinking water.“Today’s order will ensure that these residents have safe drinking water, the contamination is cleaned up, and the community has a direct line of contact with Energy Transfer to express their concerns,” said DEP Acting Secretary Jessica Shirley. “Clean, safe drinking water is one of the most important resources we have, whether that is from a public water supplier or a private water well. Pennsylvanians have a constitutional right to pure water and we will work to ensure that right is protected in Upper Makefield Township.”DEP already had insisted on water testing at impacted homes, and so far, under DEP oversight, a third-party contractor has taken 447 samples of well water for petroleum contamination. DEP is conducting stream assessments and water chemistry sampling of three nearby streams: Dyers Creek, Houghs Creek and an unnamed tributary. DEP also is overseeing hydrology testing to characterize the subsurface affected area and better understand groundwater flow, which will help inform the longer-term remediation plan. In addition to requiring temporary relief such as bottled water, DEP’s Order requires Energy Transfer to submit an enforceable schedule for completing its environmental investigations and submitting cleanup plans to address the impacts of the leak. Governor Josh Shapiro also sent a letter to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), calling on federal leaders to hold Energy Transfer accountable under their authority. The federal government has primary jurisdiction related to operation of the pipeline itself under the Pipeline Safety Act. More details can be found on DEP’s community webpage for Upper Makefield Pipeline.Click Here for a copy of DEP’s announcement.For more information on environmental programs in Pennsylvania, visit DEP’s website. Submit Environmental Complaints; Click Here to sign up for DEP’s newsletter; sign up for DEP’s eNotice; Like DEP on Facebook, Follow DEP on Twitter and visit DEP’s YouTube Channel. NewsClips:

• -- Courier Times: Bucks County Residents Demand Answers On Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Inspection Report For 2023 Flash Flood
• -- WHYY: Bucks County Residents Call For Shutdown Of Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline [After 16 Month Leak Contaminated Wells]: ‘Our Lives Have Been Upended’
• -- Inquirer - Frank Kummer: Bucks County Residents Fear Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Leak Could Be More Widespread Than Company Acknowledges; Class Action Lawsuit Expected To Be Filed
• -- Courier Times: Energy Transfer/Sunoco Disputes Findings, Recommended Fixes Of Federal Pipeline Regulator In Jet Fuel Pipeline Leak Investigation In Bucks County
• -- Courier Times: Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline In Bucks County Operational Again After Leaking Fuel For 16 Months, Some Are Worried
• -- Courier Times: More Wells In Bucks County Contaminated, Residents Fear Impact Of Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Leak Spreading

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do - Move Away From Long-Term Deals Carries Risk for LNG Buyers, Producers | RBN Energy - The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices may impact LNG commercial models. The long-term LNG contract, typically running for 20-25 years, has allowed producers, over time, to expand production — all LNG plants have spare capacity — with the result that a short-term market has developed, generally defined as contracts of four years or less. In 2023, short-term volumes of LNG — which includes cargoes that were transacted on a spot basis — accounted for 35% of global LNG imports, or 141 million metric tons (MT), compared to only 19%, or 41.6 million MT, in 2010. The increase in short-term trade is a reflection of the increasing commoditization of LNG. Although the long-term contract remains, for now, the major medium for contracting LNG supply, accounting for 260 million MT (34.4 Bcf/d) of 2023 imports, more than 100 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa; 13.2 Bcf/d) of global long-term contracts are due to expire by 2031, as shown in Figure 1 below.We should emphasize that the impact of this trend, should it continue, would affect U.S. LNG contracts at a later date. The first U.S. LNG export facility, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana, shipped its first cargo in 2016, so any long-term contracts for that site would likely go until at least 2036. Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has 20-year contracts that haven’t even started yet. Likewise, most of the new U.S. projects being built offer 20-year contracts that won’t even begin until the end of this decade. (To track the progress of U.S. LNG export projects under development, see our weekly LNG Voyager report.) It’s also important to note that the need for project financing — and the long-term commitments that provide it — is not needed for terminals that have already been built and the original 20-year-old deals underpinning them have expired, which makes shorter arrangements more viable. In addition, some of the long-term commitments signed recently for projects under development also provide volumes today — bridging cargoes intended to meet a buyer’s potential supply gap.A feature of long-term, or legacy, contracts is that they represent a “liner” trade model with fixed annual contract quantities and high take-or-pay obligations. This originally served the industry well, as utilities could predict and manage demand growth in tandem with their LNG purchasing requirements. However, the advent of large amounts of variable renewable electricity (i.e., wind and solar power) in some LNG-consuming countries has increased uncertainty about just how much LNG buyers require — not only on a long-term basis, but seasonally, and even monthly. This creates major uncertainties for LNG buyers in terms of the volumes and durations to which they can commit. Consequently, producers cannot take the automatic extension of existing long-term contracts under their rigid terms for granted. The expiry of legacy LNG contracts allows buyers to source supply on more flexible terms and potentially under different pricing formulas from the predominantly oil-based, long-term contracts that are due to expire.Examples of contract terminations in recent years provide some precedents. As we noted in (Not So) Big in Japan, Japan’s JERA declined in 2022 to extend its 25-year contract with Qatargas (now QatarEnergy) for 5.5 MMtpa (0.73 Bcf/d). The Qatari contract was linked to the Japan Customs Cleared (JCC) oil price and precluded the buyers from selling the LNG to third parties under so-called destination restrictions, which the Japanese buyers had railed against for several years. Instead, JERA has focused its attentions on other sources, including Freeport LNG in the U.S., where it has access to LNG indexed to Henry Hub gas prices and is free of destination restrictions, allowing JERA to expand its global trading ambitions. In addition, JERA has signed up for 2.35 MMtpa (0.31 Bcf/d) from Oman, commencing in 2025. The contract has a 10-year duration, reflecting the uncertainty buyers face regarding their long-term LNG needs. The message is that LNG buyers are seeking lower commitment and greater diversity in supply sources and pricing formula, against a background of increasing uncertainty in gas demand.Although the LNG market has always been regarded as a growth one, recent experience shows that demand, both long and short term, can fall. For example, Pakistan has deferred an agreement to buy LNG from Qatar for a year, and Egypt has recently experienced problems in accommodating the volumes of LNG it had committed to under a tender. The need for supply flexibility to meet buyer needs is becoming increasingly important. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that, unlike the oil industry, LNG has very limited storage capacity to accommodate swings in demand and supply. Global LNG storage has been estimated at less than 10 days of global demand, compared with more than 60 days for oil. When market dislocations occur, either on the demand or supply side, a lack of storage will likely manifest itself as increased price volatility as players seek to restore market balance.These demand vagaries suggest that LNG buyers will need to make use of a range of purchasing options, including short-term contracts, strips of cargoes (i.e., a multi-cargo contract typically spanning the short to medium term) and spot purchases. The expiry of long-term contracted volumes that we noted at the top is helping pave the way for a portfolio approach to purchasing LNG on a more volume-flexible basis. One thing that seems clear, however, is that LNG purchased under long-term, take-or-pay contracts will form a decreasing proportion of the portfolio. While some might argue that this undermines security of supply — you can’t build new terminals without those initial commitments — LNG is now highly commoditized. One crucial feature of a commodity is that it is always available (for a price, of course), as evinced by the ability of Europe to ramp up its LNG imports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (see Lublin on the Edge and Help is on the Way).What does this change in buyer objectives mean for LNG projects looking to take a final investment decision (FID), especially those in the U.S.? These projects are looking for buyers prepared to commit to contract durations of 15 years or more with volume purchase obligations of more than 1 MMtpa (0.13 Bcf/d) in order to obtain the financing required to take FID. Aggregating such demand — especially for a large project looking to realize economies of scale — is a challenge, requiring negotiations with multiple buyers, each having different requirements in terms of volume, timing and duration. This inevitably adds to project delays while LNG developers assemble a critical mass of long-term commitments. Intense competition among projects for buyers only adds to the uncertainty as to which projects will proceed and when. The binding sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) underpinning the projects have conditions precedent, including backstop dates for FID, which, if not satisfied in a timely manner, allow the offtaker to pursue other opportunities. That, of course, is before regulatory approvals are taken into consideration, which can lead to further delays, as we have seen over the last year (see Tired of Waiting for You).Essentially, LNG project sponsors want counterparties willing to take market risk over a protracted period. Two types of counterparties have emerged in response to this requirement. The first is the portfolio player model: BP, Shell and TotalEnergies. These are now being joined by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, both of which have signed up for volumes from Mexico Pacific’s Saguaro LNG project, for example (see Two Of Us). These companies are deliberately long in LNG, shipping and import terminal capacity, giving them opportunities to optimize their operations among a wide span of buyers across multiple markets. These players are shouldering price and market risk and incur high fixed costs for shipping, terminal capacity, tolling fees and large trading teams.

Golden Pass LNG Nabs Commissioning Extension to 2029 - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has granted a permit extension to Golden Pass LNG as the Trump administration continues to accelerate authorizations for U.S. export projects. Marking the third LNG-related authorization since Energy Secretary Chris Wright took the DOE reins last month, the agency Wednesday granted a request by Golden Pass LNG that had been pending since August. “Exporting U.S. LNG supports American jobs, bolsters our national security and strengthens America’s position as a world energy leader,” Wright said. “President Trump has pledged to restore energy dominance for the American people, and I am proud to help deliver on that agenda with today’s permit extension.”

Venture Global Plans 18 Mt/y Expansion for Plaquemines LNG Export Project -- Fresh off of its initial public offering launch, Venture Global LNG Inc. is looking to use the momentum from a wave of U.S. regulatory changes to sanction a third Plaquemines LNG expansion in the next few years. The Virginia-based LNG exporter disclosed Thursday plans to build an additional 24 modular liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines LNG site south of New Orleans. Estimated to be an $18 billion investment, the phase three expansion would boost Venture’s export capacity at the Plaquemines site by 18 million tons/year (Mt/y) for a combined 45 Mt/y. CEO Mike Sabel said the firm’s financial momentum from its commissioning cargoes at the first two facilities and the shifting regulatory winds in the United States have created a prime opportunity for continued growth.

EOG Targeting LNG, Power Demand, as South Texas Dorado Adding More Natural Gas Supply -- Executives at multi-basin exploration and production firm EOG Resources Inc. see support for natural gas prices this year on the back of rising power and LNG demand. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Waha daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. In a fourth quarter conference call, CEO Ezra Yacob also noted the drop in natural gas inventories below the five-year average for the first time in more than two years. Despite a difficult price environment in 2024, the Houston-based independent’s natural gas output grew. Natural gas output was 2.09 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter from 1.95 Bcf/d in 4Q2023. Full-year production was 1.95 Bcf/d, versus 1.71 Bcf/d in 2023.

LNG Buildout Seen Loosening Market, but Not for Long, Says Wood Mackenzie Expert --A wave of new LNG supply may loosen the global natural gas market in the coming years, but this would likely spur a corresponding uptick in demand, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Ed Crooks, vice chair for the Americas. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. It is “clearly the case that the Trump administration is already stepping on the accelerator in terms of getting permitting approved for new LNG projects,” Crooks told NGI in a recent episode of the Hub & Flow podcast. U.S. LNG feed gas demand has hit record levels in recent weeks, and export capacity is expected to double by 2028 versus 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

US natgas prices jump 8% on record LNG flows, Germany not in talks on Nord Stream 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders said U.S. gas prices also gained support from reports Germany was not in talks with Russia over a "possible pipeline-based supply of Russian gas" via the partly damaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That means Germany and the rest of Europe will likely continue to import massive amounts of U.S. LNG. Germany's economy ministry said the country's energy independence from Moscow is crucial. The comments were in response to a weekend report in the Financial Times that a long-time ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin is lobbying the U.S. to restart the $11 billion project. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.8 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $4.122 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 14. The price increase occurred despite record output and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the middle of March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks. Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. With prices down about 9% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange for the second time in 12 weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 18. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 119.3 bcfd this week to 114.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

US natgas prices jump 6% to 26-month high on record LNG flows, Canada tariff worries - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 9% to a 26-month high on Tuesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected. Traders said prices also gained support on worries gas exports from Canada to the U.S. could decline due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico that took effect on Tuesday. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.8 cents, or 5.5%, to settle at $4.350 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2022. Prices rose despite near-record output and forecasts for mild weather through mid-March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks. Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. Looking forward, the premium of futures for March over April 2026 rose to a 15-month high on Tuesday. Some analysts said it signals the market is betting energy firms will have a tough time rebuilding stockpiles to normal levels by the winter of 2025-2026, which could cause prices to spike during the winter months if the weather turns extremely cold. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said summer should not trade above winter because demand for the fuel is generally higher during winter months. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves on changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. On a daily basis, output was on track to decline by 1.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 104.7 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a three-week high of 106.5 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 106.7 on February 6. In the import market, the U.S. was on track to pull in around 8.3 bcfd of gas from Canada on Tuesday, down from an average of 9.6 bcfd over the prior seven days. That compares with 8.6 bcfd in 2024 and an average of 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023). The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants held at an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in March, the same as February's record high, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to a preliminary three-week low of 15.2 bcfd on Tuesday on small declines at several export plants. That compares with an all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd on February 23.

North American Natural Gas Prices Jump as Tit-for-Tat Trade War Launches -- President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, and natural gas prices jumped. Graph showing Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) NOVA/AECO C daily natural gas price versus U.S. net natural gas imports from Canada. On Tuesday afternoon, the New York Mercantile Exchange contract for April was trading at around $4.500/MMBtu, up 8% from Monday’s close. NOVA/AECO C natural gas was up C9.5 cents to average C$1.945/GJ, according to NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. Natural gas prices at hubs along the U.S.-Mexico border were mixed, with some hubs trading about $7.000 higher day/day, while other locations sank around $3.000, NGI’s Mexico price data show. President Trump cited fentanyl overdose deaths as the reason for the levies.

US natgas prices slide 3% from 26-month high on small storage withdrawal - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Thursday from a 26-year high in the prior session on record output and a federal report showing last week's storage draw was smaller than expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28. That was much smaller than the 92-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with declines of 56 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average draw of 94 bcf for this time of year. Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 11% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.8 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $4.302 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2022 for a second day in a row. Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, including exports. The percentages were higher in some U.S. border states and regions, and some of those U.S. exports went to Canada. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline by 2.4 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary one-week low of 104.5 bcfd on Thursday, down from a three-week high of 106.9 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 107.2 on February 6.

US Natural Gas Prices Climb on Cold Weather, Supply Concerns Ahead of Summer - U.S. natural gas prices rose on Friday, setting their best weekly performance in two months, as colder-than-usual weather fueled concerns over supply replenishment ahead of summer when demand typically increases for power generation to run air conditioners. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 9.7 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.399 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract is up 14.1% for the week, marking its biggest weekly gain since January. “We’re getting a burst of cold weather late in the season, raising concerns about supply buildup ahead of summer’s cooling demand,” “Despite the current chill, forecasts suggest an unusually hot summer and better-than-expected demand for LNG exports, keeping the longer-term outlook bullish.” The tariff situation adds uncertainty, with a potential slowdown in Canadian exports to the U.S. making it harder to rebuild storage levels. Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.2 bcfd over the past few days since Trump’s tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data. That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023). Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly warmer than normal from March 6-15 to mostly colder than normal from March 16-21. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 110.4 bcfd this week to 109.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower compared to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

Texas workers face mounting dangers in the heart of America's greatest oil boom -Jose Gonzalez* wore no mask, despite the toxic chemicals he worked with in the oil field. “One leak, and no one will hear from you again,” he said. He shrugged. At 31, with three children at home, he faced constant risks in his job as a truck driver in the Permian Basin, both from the chemicals and the relentless pace of the roads where he and other drivers pull 24-hour shifts driving the ingredients and products of fracking — sand, cement, fracking fluid, produced water, oil — from wellhead to storage depot and back again. It didn’t pay, he said, “to think too deeply about the danger.” The Permian Basin, a region spanning west Texas and eastern New Mexico, is the once and future heart of the greatest oil and gas boom in American history, a frenzy of production triggered by the introduction of new technologies like fracking and horizontal drilling in the 2010s. The boom has marked a return to prominence — and prosperity — for a region whose resources once helped the Allies win World War II but that was abandoned by major oil companies decades later amid the great bust of the 1980s. Up Next - Shutdown clock ticks with Trump set to address Congress Once-moribund Permian oil production approximately tripled between 2010 and 2024, making the region the source of 47 percent of U.S. output. Meanwhile, gas production, which largely fuels electric power plants and is used to make plastics and chemicals, has nearly doubled. For President Trump and Texas’s Republican leadership, that outflow offers a prospect of American “energy dominance.” State and federal officials are seeking to amplify the boom even further with promises to “unleash American energy” by cutting climate regulations, speeding up permits of new wells and pipelines, and greenlighting facilities to ship U.S. natural gas overseas.“President Trump will treat oil and natural gas as an asset, not a liability, and domestic energy production and jobs will be prioritized,” Todd Staples, head of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, told reporters in January. But the push to bolster fossil fuel production is heightening concerns among oil field workers and first responders about the mounting dangers facing workers and Permian residents. The region’s prospering oil industry is all too frequently shadowed by injury and death: About 30 Texas workers per year, more than two per month, die of poison gas, explosions, blunt force trauma or vehicle crashes. In October, a Permian Basin worker was engulfed in flames. In December, another was killed by flying debris after a pressure valve explosion. The death toll is higher still on the region’s roads, where drivers like Gonzalez race their oil field cargo back and forth on long shifts. Crashes accounted for two-thirds of oil worker deaths in 2023, according to federal data. But it’s not only truckers who are at risk: The roads have also become more dangerous for the populations of the towns they race through.In 2023, according to the state Department of Transportation, someone died every day on the Permian’s highways — the result of a staggering 73 crashes per day, which left more than two people seriously injured for every one killed. That year, more than 1,000 people died on the highways of all of Texas’s oil-producing regions — making the roads among the most dangerous in the country and exceeding the death toll faced by the U.S. military in its bloodiest year in Iraq. Permian crashes were twice as likely to be fatal as those in the rest of Texas. Out in the Permian — where everyone is up too early, in bed too late, and working under constant stress — Gonzalez told The Hill “accidents are our daily bread.” Between 2010 and 2023, the number of deaths on the region’s roads more than doubled.The rise in fatalities has come alongside a steep increase in oil production that has brought a flood of new fossil fuel workers to the Permian and revitalized its economy. Before the boom, the region had been in decades-long decline following the 1980s bust, when oil majors like Exxon and Shell departed the landscape that had once been the heartland of American oil seemingly never to return and leaving behind empty office buildings and shuttered stores and restaurants.“This part of Texas was dying,” said Kirk Edwards, CEO of Latigo Petroleum and a Midland-Odessa business leader. Now the majors are back, and the region is “thriving,” revived by high-tech methods like fracking and horizontal drilling that turned oil extraction into “a cookbook, almost a manufacturing process,” Edwards said.

Central Valley oil distributor says state-owned oil refineries are a bad idea - As oil refineries continue moving out of California, the state’s energy commission is trying to ease the gasoline supply crisis. According to the Los Angeles Times, state ownership is considered for one or more oil refineries. However, a local oil distributor said bad California policies are to blame for the refinery exodus. “We’ve driven more than half of the refineries out of the state, and now the state thinks that they’re going to jump in and somehow do it better,” West Hills Oil President Scott Cain said. California is going through an oil refinery crisis. “I started in 1992, there were 32 refineries and now we’re down to 14. And over that time period, they’ve made it increasingly hard to do business in the state of California,” Cain said. Phillips 66 is the latest refinery announcing its departure from California by the end of 2025. The California Energy Commission proposed a state takeover of the remaining refineries to ensure a reliable supply of gas, but Cain said that wouldn’t fix the problem. “As a distributor, I sit here and I’m just baffled,” Cain said. “The state of California somehow thinks that they’re going to jump into, you know, a business they’ve never had, you know, any inkling of doing and that they’re going to somehow do a better than the for-profit companies.” Assemblymember David Tangipa also doesn’t understand why anyone would support state-run refineries. “The state wants to take on more and more and more. And yet we don’t have any of the financial institutions in place. We don’t have any money left,” Tangipa said. Both Tangipa and Cain say state regulations, like ending the sale of gas powered cars by 2035, are driving oil refineries out. “This is what we call strangulation through regulation. They are strangling these businesses to where California is just inoperable,” Tangipa said. Cain says doing away with punitive state regulations would solve the problem. “You might even be able to tap somebody like Phillip 66 and to keeping that refinery open in Los Angeles instead of shutting it down in 2025,” Cain said. The Phillips 66 refinery leaving California by the end of this year makes up for 10% of the state’s gasoline supply.

President Trump Touts Alaska LNG Project, Energy Dominance and Vows Tariffs Will Continue-- President Trump on Tuesday night doubled down on expanding U.S. energy might and praised the newly enacted tariffs during a joint address to Congress. A deal, he said, also is advancing that would fulfill a long-held dream to transport Alaska natural gas to Asian markets. In the longest speech ever delivered before a joint session of Congress, the president said “common sense has become a common theme, and we will never go back, never… “A major focus of our fight to defeat inflation is rapidly reducing the cost of energy. The previous administration cut the number of new oil and gas leases by 95%, slowed pipeline construction to a halt and closed more than 100 power plants. We are opening up many of those power plants right now.”

Pembina Extending Natural Gas Opportunities Beyond Cedar LNG, With Alliance Poised to Fuel New Data Center -- With Cedar LNG set to begin exports to Asian markets in three years, aligned with a portfolio of natural gas and liquids projects across Western Canada, Pembina Pipeline Corp. is on the cusp of growing even larger across North America. Speaking with investors during the recent fourth quarter conference call, CEO Scott Burrows said the Calgary-based midstream giant had “an abundance of opportunities ahead of us and a clear pathway to growth.” The midstream giant, which reports in Canadian currency (C$1.00/69 cents), has around $4 billion of secured projects under construction “and more than $4 billion of additional projects in various stages of development,” Burrows noted.U.S. Natural Gas Production, Rising LNG Demand Threaten Summer Price Spikes — A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. 50 rigs: U.S. Energy Information Administration researchers calculated U.S. natural gas rigs decreased by 32%, roughly 50 rigs, between 2022 and 2024. The majority of that reduction occurred in the Haynesville Shale and Appalachia Basin, which have helped supply the growing demand for feed gas from Gulf Coast LNG terminals during the same period. Both regions declined by a combined 21 rigs last year as natural gas prices continued to crater amid surging oversupply and the pull of LNG demand from Europe. 106 Bcf/d: Analysts with Mansfield Energy Corp. estimated that producers would likely have to ramp up volumes heading into the spring as commissioning LNG projects continues to raise feed gas demand. Mansfield placed average production at the beginning of March at 106 Bcf/d. If power demand during the summer is intense or production volumes lag, Mansfield analysts recently said that natural gas prices could rise “high enough to incentivize switching to coal where economically viable.” 0.8 Mt/y: The Philippines is reportedly one of several Asian countries in talks to sign on for volumes from the proposed Alaska LNG project, but in the meantime, power companies in the Southeast Asian country are relying on trading houses to fill the gap. A unit of South Premiere Power Corp. and Excellent Energy Resources Inc. signed a 10-year, 0.8 million ton/year (Mt/y) contract with Swiss-based Vitol Inc. 7%: Consultants with McKinsey and Co. estimate Germany’s natural gas consumption could continue falling, decreasing by 3-7% below current levels by 2030. The European Union’s manufacturing powerhouse has been impacted by inflation and rising energy costs since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Germany imported 4.57 Mt of LNG last year, a 0.39 Mt decrease year/year, according to Kpler data. The majority of its volumes were spot purchases from U.S. producers.

NFE Moves to Insulate LNG Volumes Against Cooling Volatility in Global Natural Gas Markets -- New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is hedging some volumes from its Mexico LNG export project in anticipation of falling European prices as it progresses the next phase of terminal platforms. Chart showing various global natural gas markets and previous 5-day trading values. NFE’s 1.4 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity Fast LNG asset began producing and shipping cargoes last September. It delivered around 0.20 Mt by the end of 2024, according to Kpler data. Around 0.13 Mt of the volumes were spot trades, which helped partially offset NFE’s massive capital expenditures and refinancing during the year. Since the beginning of the year, Fast LNG has shipped 0.30 Mt. As NFE prepares its next export expansion in Mexico, CEO Wes Edens said the company is focusing on how to get the best earnings from those cargoes.

Norwegian firm refuses fuel to US warships over Trump's snub to Zelenskyy -- Norwegian fuel company Haltbakk Bunkers has announced an immediate halt of supply to US military forces and naval vessels docking in Norwegian ports, citing dissatisfaction with recent American policy towards Ukraine. The move follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent visit to the White House, where he had a hostile conversation with US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. In a statement shared on Facebook, the company condemned the televised exchange between the leaders, calling it the "biggest s***show ever presented live on TV.” Haltbakk Bunkers praised Zelenskyy for his restraint during the discussion, accusing the US of staging a “backstabbing TV show.” “As a result, we have decided to immediately STOP as fuel provider to American forces in Norway and their ships calling Norwegian ports. No Fuel to Americans!” the company declared, further urging other Norwegian and European fuel providers to follow suit. The statement concluded with “Slava Ukraina,” a slogan widely associated with support for Ukraine. Gunnar Gran, owner of Haltbakk Bunkers, reinforced the company's stance in an interview with Norwegian maritime news outlet Kystens Næringsliv, asserting that “not a litre” of fuel would be supplied to US forces “until Trump is finished.” “We run a private limited company and choose our customers,” Gran stated, adding that his company had previously banned fuel sales to Russian entities following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. “We lost a lot of revenue, but we have a moral compass. Now the United States is excluded based on their behaviour towards the Ukrainians.”

Norway breaks silence after fuel giant 'refuses to fill US navy' -- Norway has officially broken its silence after a Norwegian fuel firm announced a ban on refuelling any US Navy vessels. On Saturday, the Express broke the news that petrol giant Haltbakk Bunkers had banned all sales to US forces following Donald Trump's treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. The firm had announced it will stop providing fuel to all American forces in Norway as it declared "No fuel to Americans!". It posted on social media to declare its support for Zelensky and dealt a serious blow to US President Trump following the unprecedented scenes of discord televised from the Oval Office. Now the Norwegian Minister of Defence has contacted the Express to make clear the country's official position is one of cooperation with the US. Norway's Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik told the Express: "We have seen reports raising concerns about support for US Navy vessels in Norway. "This is not in line with the Norwegian government’s policy. I can confirm that all requested support has been provided. The U.S. and Norway maintain a close and strong defense cooperation. American forces will continue to receive the supply and support they require from Norway." Haltbakk Bunker had announced: "We have today been witnesses to the biggest s***how ever presented "live on tv" by the current American president and his vice president. "Huge credit to the president of Ukraine restraining himself and for keeping calm even though USA put on a backstabbing tv show. It made us sick. Short and sweet. As a result, we have decided to immediate STOP as fuel provider to American forces in Norway and their ships calling Norwegian ports. "No Fuel to Americans! We encourage all Norwegians and Europeans to follow our example. SLAVA UKRAINA" Owner of the firm Gunnar Gran has told Norwegian maritime news site Kystens Næringsliv that 'not a litre of fuel' will be delivered 'until Trump is finished'. It reported: "As you probably understand, not a liter will be delivered until Trump is finished, the owner tells Kystens Næringsliv. "We run a private limited company and choose our customers!" The owner also said that the group has excluded Russians since Putin's invasion, adding: "It gave a lot of our competitors a lot of extra revenue. We lost a lot of revenue. But we have a moral compass. Now the United States is excluded based on their behavior towards the Ukrainians." It had said that fuel ban takes effect immediately and applies to vessels calling at Norwegian ports, it says.

U.S., Ukraine Clash Casts Uncertainty Over European Natural Gas Market – European natural gas prices charged higher on Monday largely in response to the calamitous meeting between Ukraine and the United States on Friday that cast a U.S. brokered peace deal with Russia into doubt. a chart showing daily estimated feed gas demand at U.S. LNG export terminals Expand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cut a trip to the United States short after an argument over the war with President Trump and Vice President Vance. The clash left the prospect of some Russian gas supplies returning to Europe a remote possibility for now and created more instability for a gas market already on edge. “Uncertainty abounds following last week’s showdown between the U.S. and Ukraine,” said ING Bank analysts on Monday. “It’s unclear where the U.S. now stands, making a peace deal seem more distant than a week ago.”

Europe Delays Plans to Phase Out Russian Fossil Fuels — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market -- The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will no longer oversee LNG bunkering in U.S. ports or international waters as part of a broader push by the Trump administration to ease restrictions on the energy sector. DOE modified an order issued by the Biden administration to the Jax LNG terminal near Jacksonville, FL, which asserted new oversight for using LNG as a maritime fuel. The facility provides fuel to ships, including cruise ships, car carriers, petroleum tankers and container vessels. DOE said it would no longer exercise jurisdiction over ship-to-ship transfers of LNG for fuel. The only bunkering-related activity that would continue to be considered an export is for ship-to-ship transfers of U.S. LNG when the receiving ship is in the territorial sea of a foreign country, including foreign ports.

Leak at new gas field off Senegal, Mauritania - Work is under way to repair a gas leak at a new offshore natural gas field off Senegal and Mauritania which poses no risk to employees, operator British energy giant BP said Wednesday. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) field shared by the two west African countries began operating on December 31. It was jointly developed by BP, American company Kosmos Energy, Mauritanian hydrocarbons company SMH and Senegal's state-owned Petrosen. A gas leak at one of the GTA wells was discovered on February 19, the Mauritanian environment ministry said on Facebook last week. "A thorough investigation to control the situation and minimise any potential environmental impact" is being carried out, the ministry said. In a statement sent to AFP on Wednesday, BP said "low-rate subsea gas bubbles" were discovered at a GTA well. "We have a plan to stop the bubbles, as part of that plan we have mobilised specialised equipment and personnel," it added. "Considering the low rate of release and the gas and condensate properties, the environmental impact is currently expected to be negligible," BP said, adding there was "no risk to employees". The site's three other wells continue their production activities while the repairs are carried out, it said. Contacted by AFP, Senegalese authorities did not respond. A Dakar-based think tank, LEGS-Africa, called for people in Senegal to be informed of the cause, extent and impacts of the leak. The site aims to produce around 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year. Delayed several times, the start of production was highly anticipated in both countries, with hopes high it will help transform their economies.

India emerges as top buyer of UAE LNG - India received more than half the UAE’s LNG exports in the first nine months of 2024 while the rest were supplied to other Asian markets, an official report shows. All the LNG exports last year were from the gas treatment plant on Abu Dhabi’s Das Island, which has a production capacity of around 5.8 million tonnes per year, said the report by the Kuwaiti-based Arab Energy Organization (AEO). The quarterly report published this week showed the Das LNG exports surged by nearly 13 percent to around 4.3 million tonnes in the first nine months of last year from about 3.8 million tonnes in the same period of 2023. India accounted for nearly 52 percent of the LNG exports in the first nine months of 2024 while Japan and China received 15 percent each, South Korea and Taiwan 6 percent each. The rest was exported to other Asian markets, according to the report. As for Qatar, it showed the Gulf country was the second largest LNG exporter last year after the US, with exports standing at nearly 60.1 million tonnes in the first nine months.

Aramco Working to Finalize Deals, Build Global LNG Portfolio -- State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, has pieced together a 7.5 million tons/year LNG supply portfolio that it is working to finalize as it moves into the global natural gas market. The capacity includes volumes already available through Aramco’s stake in MidOcean Energy LLC and non-binding deals the company is negotiating. Aramco is owned by the Saudi royal family and is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies. In recent years, it has been working to boost natural gas output and extend its reach beyond oil into low-emissions fuels.

Ecuador awards oil contract to Chinese-led group to boost ‘crown jewel (Reuters) – Ecuador’s government awarded an onshore oil contract to a consortium led by China’s state-owned producer Sinopec on Monday, in a push to grow crude output from the country’s Sacha block. The block is Ecuador’s most productive, located in the country’s northeastern Amazonian province of Orellana. It pumped 77,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year. The 20-year production sharing contract for Sacha would be run by a consortium comprising Sinopec and Canada’s New Stratus Energy. Energy and Mining Minister Ines Manzano said the consortium has four weeks to sign the contract, and pitched the deal as a way to upgrade an aging but still productive asset. “It’s been said that Sacha is the (local oil sector’s) crown jewel, but I’m sorry to say its a rusty crown and the jewels need to be polished,” she said at a press conference, stressing that the block is not being privatized or sold off. “But it will be operated with greater efficiency,” she said. New Stratus said in a statement on Monday announcing the deal that it includes an upfront cash payment of $1.5 billion, $600 million of which it will pay, with the contract expected to formally commence later this month. Sinopec holds a 60% stake in the consortium, and New Stratus the remaining 40%. Ecuador is one of Latin America’s smaller oil producers, currently producing 465,000 bpd, far behind regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico. The project could add some 373 million barrels of oil output over the next two decades, with government coffers expected to take 82% of the income generated assuming an average price of $62 per barrel, according to the Ecuadorean government. Guillero Ferreira, deputy hydrocarbons minister, told reporters that the contract should help boost Sacha’s output to 100,000 bpd over the next three years. In the past, officials have said Ecuador does not have the funds or the technology needed to best develop Sacha.

Brazil Plans to Use $3.5-Billion Oil Fund to Bolster Economy - Brazil looks to boost its economy with money from its $3.5-billion social fund, which collects revenues from oil and gas exploration and production, as approval ratings of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have slumped to a record low.Inflation and most of all rising food prices have sapped the confidence of Brazilians in their president in recent weeks.In the middle of February, a poll by pollster Datafolha showed that approval of Lula’s government dropped to 24% from 35% in December—a record low during any of Lula’s three terms in office as president of Brazil.The share of people who view Lula’s administration as bad jumped to 41%, up from 34% in December — a record high.Amid record-low approval, the Brazilian president and his government have now drafted a measure to create a committee to manage the so-called social fund. The fund, created in 2010 to collect royalties from oil, has accumulated $3.5 billion (20 billion Brazilian reals) so far.The committee will be tasked to decide how Brazil should spend the money. It could use it for general budget purposes or transfer it or part of it into different funds, a finance ministry official told Bloomberg.While Lula looks to support the economy amid the worst approval rating ever, he defended oil drilling in the Amazon.Lula is pressuring Brazil’s environmental regulators to approve oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River, arguing that revenue from this new fossil fuel supply could help finance a transition to green energy.“I want it (oil) to be explored. But before exploring, we need to research and see if there is oil and how much oil there is,” Lula said during an interview with radio station Diario last month. “What we can’t do is stay in this endless chatter that drags and drags—Ibama is a government agency, but it seems like it’s working against the government.”

Crack in oil tank causes oil spill in Hamburg – On 2 March, approximately 5,000 liters of an oil-water mixture leaked from a tank into the Elbe River at a company site in Hamburg. The spill spread across an area of about 90,000 cubic meters, according to German Authorities. While the fire department deployed oil booms on the river, the primary damage was on land, affecting the company site and the embankment, rather than the water itself. The leak occurred at an oil waste recycling site in the Kattwykhafen area due to a crack in a heavy fuel oil tank. The mixture contaminated the water surface in the Rethe, a tributary of the Elbe River.The fire department worked for around three and a half hours on Sunday evening with over 30 personnel to contain the spill

Russia adds funding for Kerch Strait oil spill response - The Russian government has allocated approximately RUB104.8 million (US$1.17 million) from its reserve funds to the salvage and pollution control effort following the December 15, 2024 incidentswherein the tankers Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 suffered damage in bad weather in the Kerch Strait between mainland Russia and Crimea.The funds will be used by the Federal Agency for Maritime and River Transportation (Rosmorrechflot) for the purchase of additional spill containment booms with a total length of 12 kilometres and 30 tonnes of biosorbent.The federal government had earlier allocated RUB1.5 billion (US$17 million) for the removal of contaminated sand and the restoration of affected coastal areas. Ongoing work as part of the response effort includes the cutting the hull of Volgoneft-239 to facilitate its immediate disposal, the recovery of spilled oil from the seabed, and the cleanup of nearby beaches. The oil spill resulting from the twin incidents is reportedly one of the worst environmental disasters to occur in the region in years.

Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Dropped by 18% in February - Russia saw its oil and gas budget revenues drop by 18.4% in February from a year earlier, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry.Last month, Russia’s budget received $8.6 billion (771.3 billion Russian rubles) from oil and gas, down from $10.6 billion (945.6 billion rubles) in February last year.The lower oil prices have played a role in Russia’s lower revenues in February 2025 compared to a year earlier.Going forward, Russia’s revenues from oil are set to be volatile, due to the January sanctions on Russian oil trade, which may delay some shipments and payments until the supply chains are reshuffled.Proceeds from oil and gas sales are the most important cash stream for Russia’s federal budget.Russia has been signaling it would be seeking to reduce its dependence on oil to minimize the impact of volatile oil and gas prices on its budget revenues.Meanwhile, in recent weeks Moscow has been struggling to offload its crude.Tankers continue to load crude oil from Russia but many of these are seeing difficulty in delivering the cargo to ports as buyers avoid supply chain sanctioned by the United States, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The Biden Administration’s farewell sanctions on Russian oil trade were the most aggressive yet and sanctioned dozens of vessels that Russia used to ship the ESPO crude blend from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino to China’s independent refiners. Many of the vessels, specialized tankers, and shuttle tankers transporting Russia’s oil from the Arctic and Far East Pacific fields and production clusters to Asia have now been sanctioned. Of the 19 vessels loaded from the Sakhalin Island in Russia since the U.S. sanctions came into effect, only five have delivered their cargoes to a final port of destination, according to the data reported by Bloomberg.

Chinese Refiners Slash Run Rates as Sanctions Cripple Russian Crude Supply China’s independent refiners have slashed their processing rates to the lowest level in nearly five years as costs to procure crude soared amid dwindling Russian supply following the latest U.S. sanctions.Crude supply became more expensive for the private Chinese refiners, concentrated in the Shandong province, and dragged refining margins to a loss. The independent refiners, commonly known as teapots, have slashed run rates, to just 43.64% of processing capacity as of this week, according to data from industry consultancy Mysteel Oilchem reported byBloomberg. This is the lowest average crude processing rate since the start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.The Biden Administration’s farewell sanctions on Russian oil trade and shadow fleet crippled supply of Russia’s ESPO crude shipped from the port of Far Eastern Russian port of Kozmino. ESPO has been a favorite with the Chinese refiners, but the scores of oil tankers sanctioned by the U.S. slashed the availability of non-sanctioned tankers to ship Russian crude to China.As Russia’s top buyers in Asia – China and India – prefer to steer clear of sanctioned tankers and entities involved in the trade, the freight rates for shipping Russian crude to its biggest buyers have soared.This has made refining crude at many private refineries in China’s Shandong province unprofitable, and many plants slashed run rates.

Iraq invites global oil firms for talks -Iraq's Ministry of Oil said on Saturday it had invited global foreign companies operating under the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) umbrella, along with firms contracted by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to a meeting in Baghdad on March 4. The talks are set to address issues related to existing contracts and seek agreements that align with international best practices for oilfield development while safeguarding national interests, the ministry said in a statement. The Kurdistan Region's Ministry of Natural Resources is also expected to attend the discussions. Eight international oil firms operating in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region said they would not resume oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan on Friday despite an announcement from Baghdad that the restart was imminent. The government said on Friday it would announce a resumption in the coming hours, with an initial amount of 185,000 bpd exported through state oil marketer SOMO and that quantity gradually increasing. APIKUR, which represents 60% of production from the region, said later no formal contact had been made for clarity on commercial agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.

Kazakhstan says it has tasked oil majors to cut output to meet OPEC+ quotas - Kazakhstan is producing oil above its OPEC+ quotas and has tasked oil majors to cut production, Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev said on Friday. Kazakhstan is currently producing at a record high, and well above its target. OPEC+ - consisting of OPEC countries and allies including Russia and Kazakhstan - decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022. It said its decision took into account healthy market fundamentals and a positive market outlook, without mentioning Kazakhstan.

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices to Asia for first time in three months -- Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, on Friday lowered crude oil prices for Asian buyers in April for the first time in three months, in line with market expectations and after OPEC+ agreed to gradually increase supply in the same month. State oil company Saudi Aramco lowered the April official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude by 40 cents to $3.50 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai prices, a pricing document from the producer showed. In the previous month Arab Light's OSP hit its highest in more than a year at $3.90 above the Oman and Dubai average after harsher U.S. sanctions on Russian oil disrupted global trade and caused oil prices and freight rates to spike. The company also lowered April prices for other grades it sells to Asia. The cut in Arab Light price for Asia was in line with the 20 to 65 cents cut forecast in a Reuters poll. OPEC+, which pumps about half the world's oil, decided this week to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the group's first since 2022. Meanwhile, Russian and Iranian oil supply to top importer China is rebounding in March as non-sanctioned tankers are drawn by lucrative payoffs, easing supply concerns.

OPEC February oil output rises 170,000 barrels per day, survey finds - The following table shows crude oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in millions of barrels per day in February and January, according to a Reuters survey published on Wednesday. OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed in December to defer the start of output rises by three months until April and extend the full unwinding of cuts until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production outside the group. The figures in the first and second columns are in millions of barrels per day. Totals are rounded. January's figure for Libya was revised higher.

OPEC+ to increase oil production after long delay --A group of oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ will proceed with a long-delayed hike in oil production.Eight countries that have repeatedly delayed production increases will now move forward with them. Those countries are: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They cited “healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook,” which could mean they expect oil prices to rise in the near future.The production increases will begin in April, though the countries noted they could change their minds in response to “evolving conditions.”The increase in oil output comes as President Trump has called on OPEC countries to “cut the price of oil.”The Trump administration has repeatedly engaged with Saudi Arabia. The president’s call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was his first foreign leader call after being sworn in.

Oil rises on demand optimism, but Ukraine uncertainty looms -- Oil rose on Monday as upbeat manufacturing data from China, the world’s biggest crude importer, led to renewed optimism for fuel demand, though uncertainty about a Ukraine peace deal and global economic growth from potential US tariffs loomed. Brent crude climbed 36c, or 0.5%, to $73.17 a barrel by 4.39am GMT while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $70.10 a barrel, up 34c, or 0.5%. Prices rose after official data on Saturday that showed that China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in February as new orders and higher purchase volumes led to a solid rise in production. Investors are eyeing China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which starts March 5, for further measures to support its battered economy. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said one of the possible drivers for rising prices was that “the China NBS manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers index] moved back into expansionary territory over the weekend”. However, he cautioned that the country’s economic outlook may not be inspiring, with another round of tariffs on exports to the US set to start on March 4. Analysts from Goldman Sachs were somewhat more positive about the data, saying in a note it suggests stable to slightly better economic activity in China in early 2025, though the imposition of the extra 10% US tariff may prompt retaliatory measures. Last month, Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in three months as the threat of tariffs from the US and its trade partners shook investors’ confidence in global economic growth this year and reduced their appetite for riskier assets. Overall sentiment improved after a summit on Sunday where European leaders offered a strong show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to do more to help his nation, just two days after US President Donald Trump clashed with him, and Zelensky cut short a visit to Washington. Zelensky said on Sunday that he believed he could salvage his relationship with Trump but that talks needed to continue behind closed doors. He added that he remained ready to sign a minerals deal with the US, and he believed the US would be ready as well. “It’s unclear where the US now stands, making a peace deal seem more distant than a week ago,” “This is altering energy-market hopes for an easing of sanctions.” In addition, ongoing attacks at Russian refineries have raised concerns about its refined products exports, with another plant in the Russian city of Ufa reportedly on fire. For 2025, analysts are holding their oil price forecasts largely steady, with Brent averaging at $74.63 a barrel, as they expect any impact from further US sanctions to be balanced by ample supply and a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, a Reuters poll showed. Though the US is urging Iraq to resume exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, eight international oil firms operating there said on Friday they would not restart shipments through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan due to a lack of clarity on commercial agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.

Diminished Expectations for a Quick Agreement to End the Russia-Ukraine War -The oil market on Monday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed some supportive economic news from China and the diminished expectations for a quick agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war against the expectations that OPEC+ will proceed with its oil output increase starting in April. The crude market retraced some of Friday’s losses and posted a high of $70.60 in overnight trading amid the news that China’s manufacturing activity in February increased at the fastest rate in three months. The market was also supported as the market awaits the outcome of efforts to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. The market later erased its gains and sold off to $69.15 by mid-morning as it held support at Friday’s low of $69.14. The market, however, breached its support and sold off sharply to a low of $67.89 on some headlines stating that OPEC+ has decided to proceed with a planned April output increase. The April WTI contract settled down $1.39 at $68.37 and the May Brent contract settled down $1.19 at $71.62. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.46 cents at $2.2604 and the RB market settling down 3.45 cents at $2.1878. Sources stated that OPEC+ has decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase. The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of cuts begins in April with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd.U.S. President Donald Trump said there was no chance for Mexico or Canada to avert the 25% tariffs that he promised to impose starting Tuesday. Earlier, U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said President Donald Trump was still weighing pending tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico before the midnight deadline and will announce his decision on Tuesday. He said the two neighboring countries had done a good job on tightening their borders with the United States but had to do more to stop the flow of the drug fentanyl. A U.S. official said the United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine. The White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss with Russian representatives in the coming days as part of the administration’s broad talks with Russia on improving diplomatic and economic relations. According to the sources the sanctions offices are now drawing up a proposal for lifting sanctions on select entities and individuals, including some Russian oligarchs.On Sunday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said European leaders had agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to present to the United States. At a summit in London just two days after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump and cut short a visit to Washington, European leaders offered a strong show of support to the Ukrainian president and promised to do more to help his nation.The startup of oil production from Equinor’s Arctic Johan Castberg field has been delayed again due to bad weather. Equinor had previously said it planned to start the field by the end of February, after postponing its startup from the end of 2024.

Oil prices fall 2% to 12-week low with OPEC+ set to increase output (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 2% to a 12-week low on Monday on reports OPEC+ will proceed with a planned oil output increase in April and worries U.S. tariffs could hurt global economic growth and oil demand.Brent futures fell $1.19, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.39, or 2.0%, to settle at $68.37.Those were the lowest closes for Brent since December 6 and WTI since December 9. "Crude oil is under siege on multiple fronts and is vulnerable to the latest bearish headline or economic data," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a report, pointing to the OPEC+ decision, U.S. manufacturing data, Ukraine peace talks and U.S. tariffs.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase, three sources from the producer group told Reuters on Monday.OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.Britain said several proposals had been made for a truce in fighting between Ukraine and Russia, after France floated a plan for a one-month pause leading to peace talks, but U.S. President Donald Trump suggested his patience was running out.The U.S., meanwhile, is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine.Russia is the third-biggest oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and is a member of OPEC+.On the trade front, Trump will decide on Monday what levels of tariffs the U.S. will impose early on Tuesday on Canada and Mexico amid last-minute negotiations over border security and efforts to halt the inflow of fentanyl opioids.Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with 10% on Canadian energy products.Canada's oilfield drilling and services sector was showing signs of slowing ahead of threatened tariffs.Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country was ready for whatever decision Washington reached.In response to U.S. tariffs, China, the second-biggest economy after the U.S., said it was preparing countermeasures to tariffs targeting U.S. agriculture.U.S. manufacturing was steady in February, but a measure of prices at the factory gate jumped to nearly a three-year high and it took longer for materials to be delivered, suggesting that tariffs on imports could soon undercut production.Analysts have said Trump's planned tariffs have also raised inflation worries at the U.S. Federal Reserve. This could lead the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, which could slow economic growth and energy demand.Worries about the impact of possible slowing economic growth on oil demand pressured WTI prices, which have declined by around 10% over the past six weeks.That prompted speculators last week to cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange to their lowest level since hitting a record low in December 2023. In other U.S. energy markets, the start of the April contract as the new front month cut diesel futures down to a nine-week low toward the end of winter heating season. Gasoline futures soared to a six-month high ahead of the summer driving season.

Oil Prices Fall as OPEC+ Increases Production and Trade Tensions Escalate -- Oil prices continued their decline on Tuesday following reports that OPEC+ plans to stick to its production increase plan for April, while markets brace for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as retaliatory tariffs from Beijing against Washington. Brent crude futures dropped by 57 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.05 per barrel by 06:50 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.98. Darren Lim, a commodities strategist at Phillip Nova, stated, “The current bearish trend in oil prices is mainly driven by OPEC+’s decision to increase production and U.S. tariffs.” He added that the geopolitical developments related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are further complicating the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the halt of all military aid to Ukraine after his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to move forward with the planned oil production increase in April by 138,000 barrels per day, the first increase of its kind since 2022. Lim noted, “Although this decision aims to gradually unwind previous production cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential market oversupply.” U.S. tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, with Trump imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on Canadian energy, while the tariffs on Chinese imports rose to 20% from 10%. Analysts expect these tariffs to impact economic activity and fuel demand, putting pressure on oil prices. Analysts at BMI stated in a note: “Market participants are struggling to estimate the impact of the slew of energy-related policy announcements made by the Trump administration this month,” adding, “Negative factors, particularly the U.S. tariff measures, are dominating the market right now.” In response, China announced an increase of 10% to 15% on tariffs imposed on a range of U.S. agricultural and food products, along with placing 25 U.S. companies under export and investment restrictions. Another factor affecting oil prices is Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, which the market interpreted as a sign of a potential de-escalation in the conflict, possibly leading to the easing of sanctions on Russia and the return of more oil supplies to the market. Reuters reported that the White House has asked the State and Treasury Departments to prepare a list of sanctions that could be eased for discussion with Moscow. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, said, “The perfect storm for crude oil has intensified,” noting that “reports of the cessation of U.S. military aid to Ukraine are seen as paving the way for easing sanctions on Russian oil.” He added, “This is happening at the same time that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are coming into effect, raising fears of a trade war. Crude oil is not getting any relief right now.” However, analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out in a note on Monday that Russian oil flows are more constrained by OPEC+ production targets than sanctions, warning that easing restrictions may not lead to a significant increase in supply. The bank also noted that higher-than-expected supply and weaker demand due to sluggish U.S. economic activity and escalating tariffs present downside risks to oil price forecasts.

OPEC+ to Proceed with Planned Output Increase in April - The oil market on Tuesday extended its Monday’s sharp losses in light of the OPEC+ decision to proceed with its planned output increase of 138,000 bpd in April and as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China came into effect. The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy, while tariffs on goods from China were increased by 10% to 20%, which is expected to weigh on economic activity and demand for energy. Further weigh on market sentiment was U.S. President Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, as the growing distance between the U.S. and Ukraine potentially increasing the possibility of sanctions relief for Russia. On Monday, the White House asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss during talks with Russia. The oil market opened at its high of $68.46 and continued on its downward trend, breaching the lower limit of a downward trend channel at $67.02. The market extended its losses to $1.60 as it posted a low of $66.77 by mid-morning. The crude market later bounced off its low and traded back towards its high ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down 11 cents at $68.26 and the May Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $71.04. The April WTI contract later traded to a high of $68.56 in the post settlement period. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.68 cents at $2.2872 and the RB market settling up 64 points at $2.1942. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. The tariff actions took effect at midnight, hours after Trump declared that all three countries had failed to do enough to stem the flow of the deadly fentanyl opioid and its precursor chemicals into the United States. China responded immediately, announcing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. imports starting March 10th and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25% tariffs on C$30 billion or $20.7 billion worth of U.S. imports and another C$125 billion or $86.2 billion if Trump’s tariffs were still in place in 21 days. Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said there was no justification for U.S. President Donald Trump’s implemented 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and said her government would respond with tariff and non-tariff measures. According to traders and analysts, U.S. retail gasoline prices are set to increase in the coming weeks as new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration raise the cost of energy imports. Fuel distributor TACenergy said the tariffs have triggered an increase in wholesale gasoline prices in the U.S. Northeast, a region that relies heavily on Canadian shipments of gasoline, heating oil and diesel. Retail fuel experts said the increase will start filtering through to New England’s pumps soon and could add 20 to 40 cents a gallon. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said it is ending a license that it had granted to Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after the U.S. accused Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. According to an update of the license, published by the U.S. Treasury Department, Chevron will have through April 3rd to wind down exports from Venezuela.

Brent settles down, hit 6-month low on OPEC+ output rise, tariffs, Ukraine news (Reuters) - Oil prices swooned on Tuesday and settled close to to multi-month lows after reports of OPEC+ plans to proceed with output increases in April and news of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as well as Beijing's retaliatory tariffs. Brent futures settled 58 cents lower, or 0.8%, at $71.04 a barrel. The session low was $69.75 a barrel, its lowest since September. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 11 cents a barrel, or 0.2%, at $68.26. The benchmark previously dropped to $66.77 a barrel, the lowest since November. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, its first since 2022. The move took the market by surprise, The change in OPEC strategy looks like they are prioritising politics over price. Those politics are likely connected with the wheeling and dealing of Donald Trump," Schieldrop said, referring to the U.S. president's calls for lower oil prices. U.S. tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT), with 10% tariffs on Canadian energy, while tariffs on imports of Chinese goods were increased to 20% from 10%. Analysts expect the tariffs to curb economic activity and demand for energy, weighing on oil prices. China swiftly retaliated, announcing 10-15% increases on import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products while also placing 25 U.S. companies under export and investment restrictions. Prices steadied later in the session. Further, some geopolitical tension moderated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he regretted last week's extraordinary Oval Office clash with Donald Trump. Sources told Reuters the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal would be signed soon. On Monday, Trump paused all U.S. military aid to Ukraine. The move followed a Reuters report that the White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss during talks with Moscow. Lifting sanctions could bring more Russian oil to market. But on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts said Russia's oil flows were constrained more by its OPEC+ production target than sanctions. The bank also said higher-than-expected crude supply and a demand squeeze from softer U.S. economic activity and tariff escalation posed downside risks to oil price forecasts. Chinese demand is also down, with a period of refinery maintenance looming, said Josh Callaghan, head of crude derivatives at Arrow Energy Markets. The Trump administration said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the U.S. has granted to U.S. oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after Washington accused President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. Market participants now await government data on U.S. crude stockpiles, due on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Middle East Oil Prices Slide Amid OPEC+ Supply Surge - Oil prices in the Middle East have experienced a significant decline, with the cost of Oman crude on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange falling belowbrent crude for the first time since late 2024. This shift marks the end of the Middle Eastern grade's longest run of premiums over the global benchmark since 2023. The downturn is largely attributed to the anticipated increase in oil supplies from OPEC+ nations, prompting a selloff in the region's crudes. The Organization of the petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have confirmed plans to proceed with a gradual increase in oil production starting April 2025. This decision involves unwinding the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts that were implemented to stabilize the market. The phased approach will see an average monthly rise of 137,000 bpd, extending until September 2026. Notably, the United Arab Emirates will receive a 300,000 bpd increase in its production target over this period. This strategic move by OPEC+ reflects a response to healthier market fundamentals and a positive outlook for global oil demand. However, the group has emphasized flexibility, stating that the planned production increases may be paused or reversed if market conditions warrant such adjustments. This adaptability aims to maintain oil market stability amid evolving economic landscapes.The announcement has exerted downward pressure on global oil prices. Brent crude futures fell by 1.6%, settling at $71.62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 2.0%, closing at $68.37 per barrel. These figures represent the lowest closing prices for Brent and WTI since early December 2024.Market analysts attribute the price decline to multiple factors beyond the anticipated OPEC+ supply boost. President Donald Trump's recent announcement of imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as increasing duties on Chinese goods, has raised concerns about potential dampening effects on energy demand. Additionally, the U.S. decision to pause military aid to Ukraine and speculation about easing sanctions on Russia have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty.The increase in oil production is expected to come from several OPEC members and their allies, adding approximately 2.2 million barrels over the next 18 months. Analysts suggest that this decision could lead to oversupply issues, further pressuring prices if demand does not keep pace. This situation has negatively impacted major oil company stocks, with significant declines observed in Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total Energies.The shifting dynamics in the oil market underscore a potential transition of influence from traditional producers like OPEC to other global players. The rise of electric vehicles, advancements in fuel efficiency, and reduced reliance on oil for power and heating have contributed to weaker demand, challenging the market power of oil-producing nations.

Brent Crude Crashes To 2021 Lows After Surprise US Inventory Build - Oil prices extended their losses overnight to the lowest in almost six months as traders wrestle with conflicting signals on the longevity and effects of US tariffs on the country’s two largest external crude suppliers. A mixed bag from API last night did not help but all eyes on the official data this morning for any signs of life. API:

• Crude -1.5mm
• Cushing +1.6mm
• Gasoline -1.2mm
• Distillates +1.1mm

DOE

• Crude +3.614mm
• Cushing +1.124mm
• Gasoline -1.433mm
• Distillates -1.318mm

US crude inventories rose for the 5th week in the last 6, with stocks at the crucial Cushing Hub rising for the 4th straight week. On the product side, both gasoline and distillates saw drawdowns... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. For the third week in a row, the Trump administration did not add to the SPR...US crude production remained near record higher as Trump's 'drill baby drill' plan prompted a jump in the rig count...WTI traded back near 6-month lows on the surprise crude build...

The Oil Market Trended Lower for a Fourth Consecutive Session - The oil market continued to trend lower for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday after the EIA weekly petroleum stocks report showed a larger than expected build in crude stocks, adding to further downward pressure following OPEC+ decision to proceed with its planned output increase in April and the U.S. tariffs imposed in Canada, Mexico and China. The market posted a high of $68.10 in overnight trading and continued on its downward trend, breaching its previous low of $66.77. It extended its losses to over $3.00 as it sold off to a $65.22. The market was further pressured by the larger than expected build in crude stocks of over 3.6 million barrels on the week. The crude market, however, bounced off its low and pared some of its sharp losses amid the news that the Trump administration was considering granting some relief from tariffs on certain industries. He said the relief under consideration would eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. The White House later confirmed that President Donald Trump agreed to delay tariffs for one month on some vehicles built in North America. The market traded back above the $66.00 level ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down $1.95 at $66.31 and the May Brent contract settled down $1.74 at $69.30. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.64 cents at $2.2408 and the RB market settling down 5.72 cents at $2.1370. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks increased more than expected in the week ending February 28^th. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 346,000 bpd and utilization rates fell 0.6% to 85.9% of total capacity. U.S. East Coast refinery utilization rates fell to their lowest level since July 2020, falling sharply to 54.8% of capacity from 82.5% in the prior week. Gasoline stocks fell more than expected by 1.4 million barrels on the week to 246.8 million barrels. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased by 200,000 barrels to 60.4 million barrels, the highest level since February 2024.On Tuesday, in an address to Congress, U.S. President Donald Trump said he received a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in which the Ukrainian leader expressed willingness to come to the negotiating table over the Russia-Ukraine war. He said Ukraine was ready to sign a minerals deal with the United States. President Trump also said he had been in “serious discussions with Russia” and had “received strong signals that they are ready for peace”. Meanwhile, four sources said that the Trump administration and Ukraine plan to sign a minerals deal in return for military aid, which President Trump has paused.According to Reuters, OPEC oil output increased in February as Iranian exports held strong, despite renewed U.S. attempts to cut the flows and Nigeria increased output above its target within the wider OPEC+ group. The survey showed that OPEC produced 26.74 million bpd in February, up 170,000 bpd from January’s revised total, with Iran and Nigeria posting the largest gains of 80,000 bpd to 3.3 million bpd and 50,000 bpd to 1.57 million bpd, respectively. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s oil output fell by 20,000 bpd on the month to 8.93 million bpd and Iraq’s output increased by 40,000 bpd to 3.98 million bpd.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.2 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 7^th, cutting available refining capacity by 86,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 985,000 bpd in the week ending March 14^th.

Oil settles down more than 2% after US crude stocks build, OPEC+ hike, US tariffs (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday after U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected build, adding a further headwind as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to increase output in April and U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Brent futures settled down $1.74, or 2.45% to $69.30 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down $1.95, or 2.86%, to $66.31 a barrel. Prices pared some losses after hitting multi-year lows earlier in the session - Brent sank to $68.33, its lowest since December 2021, and U.S. crude futures touched $65.22, its lowest since May 2023. They recovered slightly after the U.S. Commerce Department chief, Howard Lutnick, said Trump would make the final decision on whether to grant any relief on tariffs to certain industries, on Bloomberg TV. While Lutnick said the 25% tariff levied on Canada and Mexico would remain, the relief under consideration would eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, which comply with the rules of origin under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a source familiar with the discussions said. Pulling prices down, U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week amid seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell due to a hike in exports, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 341,000-barrel rise. Brent fell more than $2 after the data was released. "The imposition of tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico by the U.S. sparked swift reprisals from each nation that increased concerns over a slowdown in economic growth and the consequent impact on energy demand," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said. Canada and China retaliated immediately against Trump's tariffs on Tuesday, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would respond, without giving details. JP Morgan analysts said a 100-basis-point slowdown in the U.S. GDP growth rate could potentially reduce global oil demand growth by 180,000 bpd, analysts said in a note. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022, pressuring crude prices. The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to almost 6% of global demand. "There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Analysts at Morgan Stanley Research said it was possible OPEC+ would deliver only a few monthly increases, rather than fully unwind the cuts. The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a license that Washington granted to U.S. oil producer Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil. The decision puts 200,000 bpd of supply at risk, ING commodities strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday. Meanwhile, JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand last month averaged 103.6 million bpd, marking a year-over-year increase of 1.6 million bpd, but falling short of their projected 1.8 million bpd rise for the month.

Brent Oil Prices Slide Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns -- Sentiment remains negative in the oil market, with ICE Brent falling close to 2.5% yesterday. It settled below US$70/bbl after briefly trading to its lowest level in three years. Rising OPEC supply and prospects for further increases, combined with ever-present tariff uncertainty, pushed the market lower. Recent price weakness makes it difficult for US producers to “drill, baby, drill.” While prompt WTI is trading below $67/bbl, forward values are even weaker. The calendar 2026 price is trading around $63/bbl, reducing incentives for producers to increase drilling activity. If anything, we’re likely to see a bigger pullback in activity. Producers need, on average, a $64/bbl price level to drill a new well profitably, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey. Weekly US inventory data was also fairly bearish. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.61m barrels over the last week. That’s a marked increase from the 1.5m-barrel decline the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the previous day. Also, crude oil stocks at Cushing rose by 1.12m barrels. This leaves stocks at the WTI delivery hub at the highest level since November. Lower refinery rates contributed to the build, with utilisation rates falling by 0.6pp, and crude inputs dropping by 346k b/d week on week. Among refined products, gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 1.43m barrels and 1.32m barrels, respectively. European natural gas prices traded in a volatile manner yesterday. Ultimately, prices closed lower with TTF settling 4.5% lower on the day. Positioning data shows that investment funds reduced their position in TTF by 56.5TWh to a net long of 174.8TWh, the smallest since July. It hardly helped that the European Commission delayed the release of a plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels. Some read this as a sign that a partial resumption in Russian pipeline gas is possible under a peace deal. In addition, the EU will allow some flexibility in storage targets, although member states should still aim to have storage 90% full by 1 November. Comex copper futures surged more than 5% yesterday after US President Donald Trump proposed a 25% tariff on copper imports. The move in COMEX copper also pushed LME copper prices higher. The COMEX/LME arb widened back towards $1,000/t on the back of the news. Last week, Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to mull potential copper import tariffs. The market anticipated a relatively long investigation before tariffs are implemented. The latest indications are that the copper tariff could be enforced sooner. China’s National Development and Reform Commission pledged to enforce production cuts in the country’s steel and oil industry. The aim would be to improve industry profitability and reduce pollution. China’s steel production remains above 1bn tonnes despite Beijing’s efforts to reduce capacity. Industry estimates suggest that cuts of around 50mt could be implemented.

Oil Prices Rise After Hitting Lowest Level in Years --Oil prices rose on Thursday after a heavy sell-off pushed the market to its lowest level in years. However, uncertainty over tariffs and expectations of increased supplies limited the gains. Brent crude futures rose by 50 cents, or 0.72%, to $69.80 per barrel by 07:16 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 48 cents, or 0.72%, to $66.79 per barrel. Brent crude had dropped by 6.5% over the previous four sessions, reaching its lowest level since December 2021 on Wednesday. WTI crude also fell by 5.8% during the same period, marking its lowest level since May 2023. "The sharp drop in oil prices below the $70.00 mark could lead to a short-term break in today’s session, as technical conditions try to stabilize from the oversold region," said Yiap John Rong, a market strategist at IG trading platform. However, he added, "The recovery momentum remains fragile, as the unfavorable supply and demand dynamics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment." This decline followed the United States' imposition of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, including energy imports, coupled with a decision by major producers to raise production quotas for the first time since 2022. But the losses were mitigated after the U.S. announced it would exempt car companies from the 25% tariffs, increasing optimism that the impact of the trade dispute could be limited. Additionally, a source familiar with the discussions stated that U.S. President Donald Trump might cancel the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, which are in compliance with existing trade agreements. Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, stated in a note on Thursday: "Trump’s trade actions threaten to reduce global energy demand and disrupt trade flows in the global oil market. This has been exacerbated by rising U.S. inventories." Market sentiment remains negative due to the combined impact of the tariffs and the decision by the OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories, the world’s largest consumer of oil, rose more than expected last week amid seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell due to higher exports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Crude inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters survey, which had forecasted a rise of only 341,000 barrels. There are also other signs of weak U.S. oil demand, as U.S. imports of seaborne crude oil fell to their lowest level in four years in February, due to a drop in Canadian shipments to the East Coast, according to vessel-tracking data. Tariffs are still in place on Mexican crude imports to the U.S., which is a smaller oil flow compared to Canadian imports, but it remains a key source for U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast.

Oil steadies in choppy trading on tariff uncertainty, OPEC+ hike plans (Reuters) - Oil settled largely unchanged in choppy trade on Thursday, with global benchmark Brent closing below $70 a barrel under pressure from tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and China, and plans by OPEC+ to raise output. Brent futures settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $69.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $66.36. On Wednesday, Brent hit $68.33, its weakest since December 2021, after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories further pressured oil after OPEC+'s hike in output quotas for the first time since 2022 and new U.S. tariffs enacted on Tuesday. "The OPEC news of adding barrels next month, along with a Russian/Ukraine peace deal now looking more promising and a flip/flop of tariffs is keeping crude in a volatile trade," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Russia said it will seek a peace deal, opens new tab in Ukraine that safeguards its own long-term security and will not retreat from the gains it has made in the conflict. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump exempted goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs that he imposed this week, the latest twist in fast-shifting trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and business leaders. A source familiar with the discussions said that Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements. Chinese officials have flagged that more stimulus is possible if economic growth slows, seeking to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the U.S. Helping boost prices, meanwhile, the U.S. will exert a campaign of maximum pressure of sanctions on Iran to collapse its oil exports and put pressure on its currency, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The U.S. is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that provide Iran any degree of economic relief and urging the Iraqi government to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said. Downside risks on demand will likely be greater than supply-side risks at this point with the additional oil coming from OPEC, said Scott Shelton, energy analyst at TP ICAP. "Spare capacity can offset supply losses, but there is no way to fix demand, which should flounder under the weight of sanctions and underperform," Shelton added. The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022. One OPEC+ delegate, commenting on the market's reaction to Monday's decision, said the price drop looked overdone and hoped that the market was now on a "gradual recovery."

Oil Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns And US Policy Uncertainty -- Oil prices rebounded but remained below $70 per barrel due to concerns over supply disruptions caused by sanctions on Iran and Russia. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs and OPEC+ production plans added pressure on the market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced strict sanctions on Russian and Iranian energy sectors, emphasizing the US government’s intent to use sanctions as a geopolitical tool. As of 9:36 AM local time, Brent crude gained 0.27%, trading at $69.39 per barrel, while WTI crude increased 0.24% to $66.15 per barrel. The price rise followed statements from Bessent, who criticized previous weak sanctions on Russian energy, arguing that they contributed to prolonging the ongoing war. He stated that the US government would maintain and even strengthen sanctions to apply maximum economic pressure on adversaries. Last month, the White House announced a new ‘maximum pressure’ campaign targeting Iran’s entire oil supply chain and drone manufacturing industry. “We are going to shut down Iran’s oil sector and its ability to manufacture drones,” Bessent stated. These developments have heightened concerns about global oil supply and contributed to rising prices. At the same time, the US government’s trade policies are creating additional economic uncertainty. The recent 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect on March 4, while tariffs on Chinese goods doubled from 10% to 20%. US President Donald Trump signed an exemption for goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), delaying tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2. However, trade experts warn that these tariffs could disrupt global commerce, slow economic growth, and reduce oil demand.

Oil up, but off highs as Trump warns new Russia sanctions possible (Reuters) - Oil prices gained on Friday but retreated from session highs after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine.Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 a barrel, up 90 cents, or 1.3%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $67.04, up 68 cents, or 1.02%.Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he was "strongly considering" sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine.In early trade, Brent jumped as high as $71.40, while WTI hit $68.22 after Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC+ producer group will go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production. . Flynn said oil's moves on OPEC+ and possible Russia sanctions swept aside other news, including delays in Israel and Hamas seeking a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. For the week, Brent was down 3.8%, its biggest weekly decline since the week of November 11. WTI finished down 3.9%, its biggest weekly drop since the week of January 21. Late in Friday's session, prices stabilized following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Powell said the Federal Reserve Board was watching how new policies from the Trump administration, especially on trade, were affecting the economy. Kilduff said rapid changes in implementing policy, plus developments that could increase geopolitical risk, were being felt by traders. Brent prices fell to their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories rose and OPEC+ announced its decision to increase output quotas.OPEC+ had said it intended to proceed with a planned April output increase, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.In other supply news, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the U.S. aims to reduce Iranian crude exports to a trickle.Trump's administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter, continuing efforts to drive down Iranian oil exports to zero.Global markets have been whipsawed by fluctuating trade policy in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.On Thursday Trump suspended the 25% tariffs he had imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2, though steel and aluminum tariffs would still take effect on March 12. In the U.S., job growth picked up in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market's resilience in the months ahead.

Oil refinery in Russia's Ufa on fire -- Several Russian Telegram channels, including the SHOT news channel, reported the fire followed an explosion at the refinery.

Fire Engulfs Russian Oil Refinery 900 Miles From Ukraine After Drones Heard – Newsweek -- A fire erupted at one of Russia's largest oil refineries in the city of Ufa in Bashkortostan, approximately 900 miles from the Ukrainian border, following a reported drone attack. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment by email. Ukraine has primarily used drones to target Russian sites that support the country's war efforts. These include airfields, military plants, ammunition depots, warehouses, and oil hubs and refineries, which have boost Russia's economy and supplied fuel to President Vladimir Putin's military since the conflict began on February 24, 2022. Videos circulating on social media showed a huge fire engulf the Bashneft-owned refinery, which is situated about 932 miles east of the Ukrainian border, and processes up to 168,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters. The Bashkortostan Ministry of Emergency Situations said the fire erupted "in the area of the incinerator." "There is no threat to residents of nearby areas. A laboratory is operating on site to monitor the air quality. There were no reports of casualties," the region's emergency ministry said in a statement on social-media platform Telegram. The ministry said technical issues caused the fire, but prominent Russian Telegram channels with links to local security services said that residents reported hearing drones and explosion sounds in the city before the fire broke out. Newsweek couldn't independently verify the reports of a drone attack.

Arab League Backs Egypt's Gaza Reconstruction Plan, Israel and US Reject It - The Arab League issued a statement following a summit in Cairo on Tuesday backing an Egyptian-proposed $53 billion reconstruction plan for Gaza, an idea quickly rejected by Israel and the US.The Egyptian proposal was a response to President Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, a plan that would involve an ethnic cleansing campaign to forcibly displace Palestinians. The Arab statement rejected “any form of Palestinian displacement, whether within or beyond their land, under any pretext or justification.”A major talking point from the Trump administration is that Palestinians can no longer live in Gaza due to the massive destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign, but the Egyptian proposal would keep Palestinians in the territory during reconstruction.The first phase of the five-year reconstruction plan would involve establishing temporary housing and initial repairs of partially damaged homes that aren’t totally destroyed. A temporary committee led by the Palestinian Authority (PA) would oversee the first six months of reconstruction, and then the PA would take over the management of the Strip.Hamas, which has said it does not need to rule over a post-war Gaza, welcomed the plan. “We welcome the Gaza reconstruction plan adopted in the summit’s final statement and call for ensuring all necessary resources for its success,” the group said.Hamas also expressed support for “the formation of the Community Support Committee to oversee relief efforts, reconstruction and governance in Gaza,” referring to the temporary committee.In its statement rejecting the proposal, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the Arab League’s statement “fails to address the realities of the situation following October 7th, 2023, remaining rooted in outdated perspectives.”The Israeli Foreign Ministry complained that the Arab statement didn’t condemn Hamas’s October 7 attack and that it “relies” on the PA and the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA. The ministry called for President Trump’s plan to be implemented instead. “Now, with President Trump’s idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged! Instead, Arab states have rejected this opportunity, without giving it a fair chance, and continue to level baseless accusations against Israel,” the ministry said.White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes also rejected the Arab League statement, saying the plan doesn’t “address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”Hughes added that President Trump “stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas.”

US Rejects Arab League's $53BN Alternative Gaza Reconstruction Plan The United States and Israel have quickly rejected a new Gaza peace and reconstruction plan proposed by the Arab League under Egypt's leadership, which was unveiled Tuesday.A counterproposal to Trump's provocative Gaza 'takeover' plan which advocates the removal of the Palestinian population to neighboring Arab states, the Egyptian plan would of course allow its roughly two million inhabitants to remain.The $53 billion plan approved by the Arab League aims to rebuild the destroyed Gaza Strip by 2030, while setting up hundreds of thousands of temporary housing units so that Palestinians won't have to leave. Arab leaders have blasted Trump's prior proposals as but greenlighting an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign, and Jordan and Egypt in particular have vehemently rejected the possibility of resettling Palestinians in their territories.It calls on UN Security Council to deploy an international peacekeeping force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which would establish security while reconstruction takes place - and foresees the recycling of rubble to expand Gaza's coastline and even "sustainable, green and walkable" housing and urban areas, also utilizing renewable energy.Further, according to the Associated Press, "The communique said Egypt will host an international conference in cooperation with the United Nations for Gaza’s reconstruction, and a World Bank-overseen trust fund will be established to receive pledges to implement the early recovery and reconstruction plan."Hamas has welcomed the plan, despite that it says the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) would eventually take over governance and management of the Gaza Strip."We welcome the Gaza reconstruction plan adopted in the summit’s final statement and call for ensuring all necessary resources for its success," the group said. The Islamist militant group further expressed support for "the formation of the Community Support Committee to oversee relief efforts, reconstruction and governance in Gaza."An Israeli government statement said the Arab League's plan ultimately "fails to address the realities of the situation following October 7th, 2023, remaining rooted in outdated perspectives." It also blasted the Arab body for failing to condemn the Hamas Oct.7 terror attack in its statement announcing the plan.Instead, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said, "Now, with President Trump’s idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged! Instead, Arab states have rejected this opportunity, without giving it a fair chance, and continue to level baseless accusations against Israel."

Israel’s Smotrich calls for ‘opening gates of hell’ on Gaza after halt of humanitarian aid – Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday called for “opening the gates of hell” on the Gaza Strip after a government decision to halt humanitarian aid to the besieged Palestinian enclave, Anadolu news agency reported.The Israeli government stopped the entry of humanitarian aid into the war-torn territory on Sunday, just hours after the expiry of the first phase of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal.“The decision we made last night to completely halt humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas is destroyed or completely surrenders and all our hostages are returned is an important step in the right direction,” Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionism Party, said in a statement.Describing the move as the “threshold of the gates of hell,” he added: “Now we need to open those gates as quickly and lethally as possible on the cruel enemy, until absolute victory.”The first six-week phase of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on 19 January, officially ended at midnight on Saturday. However, Israel has not agreed to move forward to the second phase of the deal to bring an end to the war in Gaza.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sought to extend the initial exchange phase to secure the release of as many Israeli captives as possible without offering anything in return or fulfilling the military and humanitarian obligations of the agreement.The Palestinian resistance group Hamas has refused to proceed under these conditions, insisting that Israel abide by the terms of the ceasefire and immediately start negotiations for the second phase, which includes a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a complete halt to the war.The ceasefire agreement has halted Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, which began 7 October 2023 and has since killed more than 48,380 victims, mostly women and children, and left the enclave in ruins.In November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.

Israel Preparing 'Hell Plan' for Gaza That Would Cut Electricity and Water - The Israeli government is preparing a “hell plan” for the Gaza Strip that would involve cutting all electricity and water to the territory on top of the blocking of food, fuel, and all other goods that was announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli broadcaster Kan has reported. According to The Guardian, the Kan report said that the “hell plan” would also involve forcing Palestinians in northern Gaza to move to the south to prepare for a resumption of the bombing campaign. Other Israeli media reports say Israel is preparing for a full-scale resumption of its genocidal war if Hamas doesn’t accept Israel’s terms.Hamas is urging that Israel follow the initial deal, under which phase two of the ceasefire was supposed to start already and would have involved a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.After refusing to engage in talks on the second phase, Israel is trying to get Hamas to agree to an extension of the first phase ceasefire for another 42 days and release more hostages without an Israeli withdrawal, a proposal Israel says was put forward by President Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff. Israel has received widespread condemnation for blocking all aid shipments into Gaza and collectively punishing the civilian population amid the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but the US has expressed support for the war crime and signed off on billions in new military aid ahead of Netanyahu’s announcement. On Monday, Netanyahu warned things could get worse in Gaza, threatening that if Hamas doesn’t release Israeli hostages, there would be consequences “that you cannot imagine.” An analysis from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz acknowledged that Hamas was unlikely to agree to release more hostages without a long-term peace plan since the captives are the group’s only leverage over Israel.Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire since the truce went into effect on January 19, killing over 100 Palestinians in Gaza since then. Israel’s restrictions on aid before imposing the total siege and its refusal to engage in talks on phase two were also violations of the agreement. On Monday, at least two more Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire in the southern city of Rafah.

UN Food Agency Says It Has Under Two Weeks Worth of Food Supplies in Gaza Due to Israeli Blockade - The UN’s World Food Program (WFP) has warned that it only has enough food supplies in Gaza to keep public kitchens and bakeries open for less than two weeks after Israel blocked the entrance of all goods into the Palestinian territory, The Associated Press reported on Wednesday.Israel announced it was cutting off the delivery of food, fuel, medicine, and other supplies in Gaza on Sunday with full backing from the US. Israel is in violation of the ceasefire deal agreed to back in January and is attempting to pressure Hamas to agree to a new arrangement that won’t involve a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.The WFP said that on top of its low food stocks, it only has enough fuel for a few more weeks. Palestinians in Gaza said they immediately felt the effects of Israel’s siege on the entry of all goods as food prices began to climb.Before Sunday, Israel was still blocking the entry of mobile homes and sufficient tent supplies in Gaza, which it committed to allowing into the Strip as part of the ceasefire deal. Due to the Israeli restrictions and a cold spell, at least six Palestinian infants living in tents died of hypothermia in recent weeks.While the US has backed Israel’s siege, the collective punishment of Gaza’s civilian population amid the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has received widespread condemnation. Israel is also reportedly planning to cut all water and electricity to Gaza as part of a “hell plan” if Hamas doesn’t agree to its terms.

Israel's Ben Gvir Calls for Bombing of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza - Former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has called for Israel to bomb aid that entered Gaza before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut off deliveries and announced a full siege on Sunday.“The government must also order the bombing of the aid stockpiles that have accumulated in Gaza in enormous quantities during and before the ceasefire, alongside a complete halt of electricity and water,” Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party in the Knesset, wrote on X on Monday.Israeli media has reported that the Israeli government is considering also cutting electricity and water to Gaza as part of a “hell plan” to prepare for resuming the genocidal war on the territory. The US has backed Israel’s decision to impose the siege on aid entering Gaza and punish the Strip’s civilian population. Ben Gvir, who recently quit Netanyahu’s government over the ceasefire deal, said it was necessary to “bring about the starvation of Hamas terrorists before resuming combat, so that we can later crush them with ease.”Ben Gvir is an outspoken proponent of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements in the territory. He has welcomed President Trump’s calls for the expulsion of Palestinians and has said that if the plan is implemented, his party could rejoin the government.Israel has broken the original hostage and ceasefire deal that it agreed to and is now calling on Hamas to accept a last-minute proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire. Under the initial deal, Israel committed to withdrawing from Gaza after the end of the first phase but has refused to do so.Israel has also refused to enter negotiations on implementing the second phase of the deal, which was supposed to involve a commitment to a permanent ceasefire. For their part, Hamas is calling for a full implementation of the original deal.