natural gas price hits another 26 month high; US gasoline demand and inventory drawdown both at 22 week highs

US oil prices ended slightly higher for the first time in eight weeks​, as a weaker dollar and strong US gasoline demand offset fears over the economic impact of new US tariffs….after falling 3.9% to $67.04 a barrel last week after OPEC agreed to end its production cuts in April and the EIA reported an unexpected and large US crude inventory build, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for April delivery edged lower in Asian trading on Monday on concerns over the impact of U.S. import tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as rising output from OPEC+ producers, then fell further in US trading as analysts discussed the possibility of a recession in the U.S. as a result of the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration, and settled $1.01 or 1.5% lower at $66.03 a barrel on fears that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would slow economies around the world and slash energy demand just as OPEC+ ramped up its supply…oil prices climbed on global markets Tuesday, despite ongoing uncertainties driven by fears over the global economic impact of tariffs, a potential US recession, and OPEC+ plans to boost output, then traded sideways ahead of the close in New York as traders positioned themselves ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports, and settled 22 cents higher at $66.25 a barrel, supported by weakness in the dollar, even as gains were capped by mounting fears of a U.S. economic slowdown….oil prices edged higher in Asia on Wednesday, as a 0.5% drop in the U.S. dollar provided support for oil prices by making crude more affordable for buyers using other currencies. then jumped 1% after Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire plan put forward by the U.S, and held those gains in US trading after the EIA reported the largest gasoline draw in five months, and settled $1.43 cents or 2.2% higher at $67.68 a barrel, as signs of cooling inflation offered traders some respite from tariff fears after U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in February…however, oil prices eased in Asian trading on Thursday​, as worries about the impact of intensifying tariff wars on global economic growth and energy demand outweighed the positive sentiment from a larger-than-expected draw ​f​rom U.S. gasoline stocks, and remained pressured and erased early gains in US trading amid the uncertainty created by the seesawing tariff announcements, and the​ir expected impact on the global economy, and settled $1.13 lower at $66.55 a barrel as traders weighed macroeconomic concerns, including the risk that tariff wars between the U.S. and other countries could hurt global demand ,as well as uncertainty stemming from a U.S. proposal for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire….oil prices rebounded in global trading on Friday, partly due to the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that would bring back more Russian energy supplies to Western markets, and settled the US session 63 cents higher at $67.18 a barrel, as news of tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia was seen as a potential disruption to global crude supplies, and thus managed to eke out a 0.2% gain for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the second time in six weeks on an outbreak of mild temperatures across the most of the US…after rising 14.1% to $4.399 per mmBTU last week on record flows to LNG export plants after Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian gas​ imports, the price of the benchmark contract for April natural gas delivery opened 24.4 cents higher on Monday and hit a fresh two-year intraday high of $4.645 within minutes, as traders looked past the latest weather forecasts to focus on storage levels for next winter, but pulled back to $4.47 by 10 AM and traded sideways the rest of the day to settle 9.2 cents higher at $4.491 per mmBTU, still the highest close since Dec. 29, 2022, as traders shrugged off bearish forecasts amid flat production in the lower 48…​April natural gas opened 7.4 cents higher on Tuesday, but pulled back to a low of $4.388 by 11 AM​, as analysts continued to worry about production ramping up to prepare for next winter while balancing healthy LNG demand and mild temperatures, and settled 3.8 cents lower at $4.453 ​per mmBTU, as rising output and mild weather offset the outlook for higher demand.... natural gas prices opened 21.7 cents lower Wednesday morning, trending lower overnight in response to warming weather forecasts, and slid throughout the session to settle 36.9 cents lower at $4.084 per mmBTU​, amid balmy weather and declining heating demand, as the storage withdrawal season was winding down…natural gas prices started Thursday 10.7 cents lower, knocked down overnight by warming forecasts, but jumped on the release of a bullish storage report to settle 2.7 cents higher at $4.111 per mmBTU, as a heavier than expected withdrawal of the fuel from storage facilities breathed life into futures, even as cash prices slipped… natural gas futures were lower ahead of the Friday open, as the market turned its attention from a tightened natural gas supply to spring weather and summer inventory rebuilding, then limped into early afternoon trading amid dissipating heating demand and forecasts for mostly mild weather in coming weeks, and settled 0.7 cents lower at $4.104 per mmBTU​, as traders weighed spring’s advance against stout storage deficits and tariff-induced volatility, and thus finished 6.7% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending March 7th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 62 billion cubic feet to 1,698 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 628 billion cubic feet, or 27.0% below the 2,326 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on March 7th of last year, and 230 billion cubic feet, or 11.9% less than the five-year average of 1,928 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 7th of March over the most recent five years….the 64 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the average 48 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that traders were expecting ahead of the report, and well more than the 19 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in March of 2024, also more than the average 56 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same March week over the past five years…  

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 7th indicated that after a big decrease in our oil exports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the sixth time in seven weeks and the for the 14th time in thirty-six weeks, in spite of an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 343,000 barrels per day to average 5,470,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 106,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 846,000 barrels per day to average 3,290,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,180,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 7th, an average of 502,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 548,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 67,000 barrels per day higher at 13,575,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,303,000 barrels per day during the March 7th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,708,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 7th, an average of 321,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 246,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending March 7th averaged a rounded 349,000 barrels per day more than what was being added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -349,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 168,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 517,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are useless….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 246,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 207,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 39,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-second SPR increase in the past seventy-two weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,756,000 barrels per day last week, which was 10.6% less than the 6,238,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 67,000 barrels per day higher at 13,575,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 72,000 barrels per day higher at 13,136,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day lower at 439,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.​6% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 86.5% of their capacity while processing those 15,708,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 7th, up from their 85.9% utilization rate of a week earlier, but down from the 91.7% utilization rate of eight weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the beginning of US refinery’s Spring maintenance….the 15,708,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.3% more than the 15,658,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending March 8th of 2024, but ​were virtually unchanged from the 15,701,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 6th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.4%, also somewhat low for this time of year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 78,000 barrels per day to 9,556,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 7th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 464,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 3.6% less than the 9,911,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending March 8th of last year, and was 4.0% less than the gasoline production of 9,956,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending March 6th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 113,000 barrels per day to 4,462,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 587,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production decreases, our distillates output was 2.2% less than the 4,562,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 8th of 2024, and was 5.2% less than the 4,705,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending March 6th, 2020…

With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the fourth time in seventeen weeks and by the most since October 4th, decreasing by 5,737,000 barrels to 241,101,000 barrels during the week ending February 28th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,433,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell by more this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 305,000 barrels per day to a 22 week high of 9,182,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 24,000 barrels per day to 840,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 25,000 barrels per day to 578,000 barrels per day.…After thirty-one gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.0% higher than last March 8th’s gasoline inventories of 234,083,000 barrels, and were about 1% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the sixteenth time in twenty-five weeks, decreasing by 1,559,000 barrels to 117,595,000 barrels during the week ending March 7th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,318,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell again this week as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 93,000 to 3,898,000 barrels per day, and as our exports of distillates fell by 5,000 barrels per day to 1,036,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of distillates fell by 20,000 barrels per day to 249,000 barrels per day...After 35 inventory withdrawals over the past 60 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.8% above the 117,010,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 1st of 2024, ​b​ut about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the big decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 21st time over the past year, increasing by 2,332,000 barrels over the week, from 433,775,000 barrels on February 28th to 435,223,000 barrels on March 7th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,614,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after those increases, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 33% above the average of our available crude oil stocks after the first week of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this March 7th were 2.6% less than the 446,994,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 8th of 2024, and 9.3% less than the 480,063,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March 10th 2023, but were 4.6% more than the 415,907,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on March 11th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count was unchanged during the week ending March 14th, as an oil rig replaced one targeting natural gas in another quiet week...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of March 14th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (March 7th) and this week’s (March 14th) count, the third column shows last week’s March 7th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 15th of March, 2024…

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Activists protest at Ohio Statehouse over oil and gas extraction, wastewater injection -- Lima News – More than 40 people gathered outside the Ohio Statehouse on Thursday to voice their opposition to oil and gas extraction and wastewater injection in Ohio.Braving wind and bitter cold, they criticized state lawmakers for allowing the gas industry to drill for natural gas underneath state parks and public lands. And they lashed out at regulators for what they described as overly lax oversight of injection wells, where operators inject toxic brine deep underground at high pressure.Melinda Zemper, of Save Ohio Parks, offered five criticisms of the oil and gas industry:

• • They’re allowed to self-report incidents, like a Jan. 2 explosion at a Gulfport Appalachia well pad near Salt Fork State Park, where flames and billowing smoke oozed into the air, requiring a five-mile evacuation
• • Ohio allows “unidentified, unregulated, toxic chemicals” to be used in the fracking process
• • Fracking requires millions of gallons of water
• • The wastewater – a radioactive brew of water, methane runoff and the chemical cocktail pumped underground – is sometimes stored in injection wells around the state. Several of those have allowed waste leakage reaching miles away
• • No statewide studies, she said, have been conducted to prove the safety of the extraction process.

The Thursday event, hosted by the Buckeye Environmental Network, spanned the better part of the day and included speakers with personal experience living near injection wells, and Justin Nobel, who wrote a book about the industry’s radioactive waste “spilled, spread, injected, dumped, and freely emitted across America.”Others took aim at a state law that allows transportation officials to spread radioactive brine on roadways as a deicer – though the Columbus Dispatch reports the state ended its contract with a brine vendor in 2021 amid radioactivity concerns. An Ohio Department of Transportation spokesman said the department currently only uses a mixture of water and salt, plus cold weather additives like a molasses made of beets, calcium chloride, or magnesium chloride to lower the freezing point of the standard brine.Any changes the activists seek would likely face a tough run inside the Statehouse. Republican lawmakers who hold supermajorities in both legislative chambers recently passed legislation opening state parks to fracking; declaring methane gas as “green energy” despite its inherently climate change-causing properties; and allowing gas utilities to charge customers for the infrastructure costs of extending gas pipelines to speculative economic development sites.State Sen. Brian Chavez, chair of the Senate Energy committee, owns natural gas injection wells, including one that state officials found allowed brine to “migrate” for miles underground.Both chambers of the General Assembly, meanwhile, are considering legislation that’s backed by major natural gas generation companies. While the bills vary in form and are undergoing amendments, they generally aim to block distribution utilities from acquiring and operating any generation assets; end ratepayer funded subsidies of two coal plants owned in party by Ohio utilities; and (pending which version of the bill prevails) allow data centers owned by tech giants to own and operate their own natural gas generation on site.

Appeals Court Rejects Anti Effort to Block Drilling Under Ohio Parks -Marcellus Drilling News- A three-judge panel (all liberal Democrats) from the Ohio District Courts of Appeals for the Tenth District ruled yesterday that anti-fossil fuel fanatics don’t have the right to appeal a decision by the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) to meet and award contracts to drill under (not on) several Ohio state parks, including the 20,000-acre Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. The case was appealed by Earthjustice acting on behalf of the anti-fossil fuel Save Ohio Parks. In February 2024, a liberal Democrat judge from Franklin County ruled against antis (see Dem Judge Shuts Down Anti Effort to Block Drilling Under Ohio Parks). The antis appealed and have lost yet again. The only (final) step would be to appeal to the Ohio Supreme Court.

Ascent Resources Actively Considering IPO or Sale | Marcellus Drilling News -- Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 update last week. The big news came from comments during a conference call with analysts. CFO Brooks Shughart said company management and the board are internally discussing and monitoring the markets with an eye on a potential IPO (initial public offering), or possibly the M&A markets for a potential sale.

Expand Lands 5.6-Miler in Appalachia in Five Days With One Bit Run - -Expand Energy landed a 5.6-mile hole in northern West Virginia’s Marcellus—and in five days with just one bit run, it reported.The total hole was made in roughly 134 hours, "a new U.S. land record for a single bit/BHA run," a spokesman told Hart Energy.The results are among the drilling and completions (D&C) and other operational improvements the E&P was expecting just a few months after the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy to form Expand, said COO Josh Viets.“That type of progress … clearly has an opportunity to lend itself to other areas that ultimately translates into incremental synergy,” Viets said in a recent earnings call.The well, Shannon Fields OHI #3H, has a 29,687-ft vertical, heel and lateral beginning in Ohio County, West Virginia, according to Expand. The lateral alone is 24,812 ft or 4.7 miles. It was made from a pad due east of Wheeling and terminating on the West Virginia side of the Ohio River across from Tiltonsville, Ohio, according to WellDataBase.com. Expand is planning more cost efficiencies, Viets said. “We definitely see there's meat on the [post-merger] bone and are really, really excited about what we have in front of us.” Post-closing on Oct. 1, Expand holds more than 650,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale in northwestern Louisiana and 1.3 million net acres in the Marcellus and Utica shales in Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. An oilfield securities analyst told Hart Energy that onshore wells with laterals greater than 4.5 miles are rare.Service firm Tenaris reported in 2023 that West Virginia hosted what was the longest lateral in North America at the time: 24,166 ft (4.57 miles) in Lewis County.“But probably not for long,” Tenaris added in its report. “Every month, a new well is achieving record-breaking lengths for their lateral sections in the Appalachian region.”The firm participated in the 2023 D&C job and noted in its report that the longer the lateral, the more challenging the torque.“The trend of longer laterals has steadily grown in recent years, calling for extreme torque capabilities, quicker installation speeds and overall connection robustness,” Tenaris reported.In 2022, Axis Energy Services performed the completions drill-out on what was the longest lateral in North America at the time: 23,700 ft. The job was for Utica Shale operator Ascent Resources in Ohio.“A total of 136 plugs … were successfully drilled out in a single run with no down time,” Axis reported. Earliest to test the limits on super-extended laterals in the Appalachian Basin was Eclipse Resources, which advanced length to 3.5 miles in 2016 with its Purple Hayes #1H in the Utica in Guernsey County, Ohio. In 2017, it took a lateral as far as 20,800 ft (3.94 miles) in its Mercury #5H, also in the wet-gas Utica.By October 2017, it had 11 extra-long lateral wells, according to a press release at the time.Its longest Utica dry-gas well was Wiley D #8H with a 19,335-ft lateral (3.66 miles). After Eclipse merged with another E&P and was renamed Montage Resources, it was purchased in 2020 by Southwestern Energy, which is now part of Expand.

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 3 – 9 | Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Mar 3 - 9, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells increased by six from the previous week. Last week, 22 new permits were issued, with 13 (more than half) going to the Keystone State (PA). Expand Energy (Chesapeake Energy) scored five permits for a single pad in Bradford County. Coterra Energy also received five permits for a single pad in neighboring Susquehanna County. EQT had two new permits for a single pad in Washington County. And Range Resources rounded out PA's permits with a single permit in Washington County. ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | EQT CORP | GULFPORT ENERGY | HG ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | LEWIS COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP |SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Diversified JV Targets NatGas for Data Center Power in WV, VA, KY -Marcellus Drilling News -- This morning, Diversified Energy, FuelCell Energy, and TESIAC announced a strategic partnership “intended to address the urgent energy needs of data centers” by supplying as much as 360 megawatts (MW) of electricity to three distinct locations in Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky. The partnership has agreed to create an Acquisition and Development Company (ADC), essentially a joint venture, focused on delivering reliable, cost-efficient, so-called net-zero power from natural gas and captured coal mine methane (CMM) to meet the soaring demand of data centers for reliable power. The way they will provide the power is quite interesting.

Diversified Energy, FuelCell Energy, and TESIAC Collaborate to Form an Acquisition and Development Company to Leverage Coal Mine Methane and Natural Gas for Off-Grid Data Center Power Projects - Diversified Energy Co., FuelCell Energy, Inc. and TESIAC announced a strategic partnership intended to address the urgent energy needs of data centers by supplying as much as 360 megawatts of electricity to three distinct locations in Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky.The partnership has agreed to create an Acquisition and Development Company (“ADC”) focused on delivering reliable, cost efficient, net-zero power from natural gas and captured coal mine methane (“CMM”) to meet the soaring demand of data centers for reliable power.The collaboration among the three companies would leverage in-basin natural gas production, advanced energy generation via fuel cell technology, and infrastructure financing to create a highly efficient, scalable, and sustainable energy solution tailored for the rapid expansion of data center power capacity requirements. Natural gas or CMM, extracted from coal mines by Diversified Energy and delivered via pipeline to fuel cells, would generate power through the electrochemical conversion of methane to hydrogen, and then to electricity. This combustion-free process is virtually free of air pollution emissions, speeding air permitting and enabling the system to be brought online faster than combustion-based systems. Heat that is co-generated by the fuel cells can be harnessed and converted to chilling for the data center, thus increasing overall system efficiency and further enhancing economic value. Importantly, this process qualifies for established environmental and tax credits that have the potential to provide meaningful cash flow in addition to the economic benefits of gas and power sales. The parties are structuring the terms of the agreement to include:

• Diversified Energy supplying natural gas and CMM or captured waste methane from coal mines that otherwise would have been vented into the atmosphere, from its Appalachian Basin production as the base fuel.
• FuelCell Energy deploying its fuel cell energy platforms, delivering distributed, high-efficiency baseload power generation, emissions management, and thermal energy solutions. This includes electricity and waste heat driven absorption chilling, ensuring data centers achieve unmatched efficiency, carbon reduction, and resilience.
• TESIAC leveraging its investment and development expertise, securing highly competitive financing options to accelerate deployment while maintaining long-term profitability and scalability.

This unique partnership intends to create a decentralized, high-performance, and sustainable energy solution to meet the demands of data centers that enable rapidly growing AI and high-performance graphics processing units. The partnership initiative, using U.S.-made technology and materials, could create hundreds of well-paying jobs in construction, operation, maintenance, and assembly and engineering, as well as indirect economic benefits, all while driving a new era of innovation in the data center industry, alongside other high-volume electric off-take markets.Other key attributes include:

• Behind-the-Meter Solutions: Rather than rely on grid-based power, this model is expected to be designed to provide on-site, continuous, and scalable power generation, securing data center uptime even in volatile market conditions with optionality to sell into the grid.
• Disruptive Financing Model: Innovative capital structuring will target faster deployment and stronger financial resilience compared to traditional investment structures.
• Carbon-Optimized Power Generation: The integration of captured methane, distributed fuel cells and emissions capture ready technology to reduce a customer’ s carbon footprint, setting a new industry standard.

“Natural Gas Extraction” Job Paid Average Wage of $176,800 in 2024 -Marcellus Drilling News -- Earlier this month, the Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) released the 10th edition of its “State of Energy Report,” offering a detailed analysis of national and state trends in oil and natural gas employment, wages and other key economic factors for ?the energy industry in 2024 (full copy below). TIPRO’s “State of Energy Report” series was developed to quantify and track the economic impact of the domestic oil and natural gas sector, emphasizing the state of Texas. However, the report has a lot of great data, including a breakdown of key O&G employment and economic stats for Pennsylvania and Ohio. One thing that caught our attention is that nationwide those classified as working in “natural gas extraction” jobs made an average annual salary of $176,800 in 2024, up $10,740 from 2023. Hey, we’re in the wrong business!

DOE Progresses Natural Gas Export Permitting Fast Lane with Delfin LNG Extension - Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright said that the Trump administration is continuing its strategy of accelerating U.S. LNG development with a new federal authorization for the proposed Delfin LNG project. Delfin LNG LLC has been working for more than a decade to construct the first floating LNG (FLNG) export terminal in the United States. The 13 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity project design consists of a deepwater port about 50 miles south of the Louisiana coast that would connect four FLNG units to existing onshore pipeline infrastructure. However, while the firm previously told DOE officials it had secured enough binding and tentative supply contracts to sanction at least one vessel, the project faced regulatory uncertainty from the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) and President Biden’s DOE.

Cheniere’s Train 8 and 9 Corpus Christi LNG Expansion Receives Final FERC Approval - FERC has granted final authorization for Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Train 8 and 9 midscale expansion at Corpus Christi LNG in South Texas, marking the Commission’s first natural gas export approval this year. Just a month after Cheniere reported first LNG from Train 1 of its Stage 3 expansion at the Texas facility, the company is inching closer to a final investment decision (FID) for its next roughly 3.3 million tons/year (Mt/y) expansion. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted approval for the project in an order published Monday after almost a year of consideration (No. CP23-129-000). FERC staff released a final environmental impact statement for the project in December, concluding that the expansion could be built without significant environmental issues.

Freeport LNG, EQT’s Top Execs Expect European Buyers to Clinch More Long-Term U.S. LNG Contracts --As talks about the end of the war in Ukraine swirl, LNG exporters and exploration and production executives are expecting prolonged demand in Europe for U.S. natural gas once market volatility subsides. Speculation of a Trump administration-brokered peace resolution has impacted Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices as traders try to predict whether some Russian natural gas supply will return to the continent. TTF has continued to drop through the week, falling to $13.39/MMBtu Thursday. The May and June contracts fell further. Despite easing market tensions, though, Freeport LNG Development LP CEO Michael Smith said the company has continued contract discussions with European gas buyers since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He said most have still indicated strong interest in domestic natural gas supplies.

Asian Spot Buying Jumps as Inventories, Prices Slide – Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - NO. 1: NextDecade Corp. said this week it would utilize Baker Hughes Co. technology for an expansion at the Rio Grande LNG facility under construction in South Texas. The companies have entered into a framework agreement for NextDecade to utilize Baker Hughes’ gas turbine and refrigerant compressor technology for Trains 4-8. The deal also includes service agreements for the infrastructure. NextDecade is building the first 17.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) phase that consists of three trains, while it works to commercialize another two trains not yet sanctioned.

Baker Hughes, NextDecade Enter Framework Agreement for Rio Grande LNG Expansion Trains - Baker Hughes, an energy technology company, and NextDecade Corporation and announced Tuesday that they have entered into a framework agreement whereby NextDecade plans to utilize Baker Hughes’ gas turbine and refrigerant compressor technology (Equipment Packages) and enter into contractual services agreements to perform maintenance work for these Equipment Packages for Trains 4 through 8 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. “Utilizing Baker Hughes’ industry-leading rotating equipment and their maintenance services is critical to ensuring the Rio Grande LNG Facility operates efficiently and reliably,” said Matt Schatzman, chairman and CEO of NextDecade. “We look forward to continuing our collaboration with Baker Hughes as we progress our plans to make the Rio Grande LNG Facility one of the largest LNG production and export facilities in the world.” “Baker Hughes is proud to continue our long-standing relationship with NextDecade, providing advanced gas technology solutions that enhance the efficiency and reliability of their LNG operations,” said Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes. “This agreement is a further example of our commitment to delivering innovative solutions in support of increasing energy demand.” NextDecade is making excellent progress on commercializing Rio Grande LNG Trains 4 and 5. The Company expects to make positive final investment decisions and commence construction on Trains 4 and 5 and related infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG Facility, subject to, among other things, maintaining requisite governmental approvals, finalizing and entering into EPC contracts, entering into appropriate commercial arrangements, and obtaining adequate financing to construct each train and related infrastructure. NextDecade is developing and beginning the permitting process for Trains 6 through 8, which are wholly owned by NextDecade and are cumulatively expected to increase the company’s total liquefaction capacity by approximately 18 million tonnes per annum once constructed and placed into operation. Baker Hughes expects orders, in relation to this agreement, as NextDecade’s project progresses.

US natural gas prices down over 1% on rising output, mild weather outlook — U.S. natural gas prices slipped more than 1% on Tuesday, as rising output and forecasts for milder weather offset a higher demand outlook for next week and record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 3.8 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $4.453 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices rose to their highest level since December 2022 on Monday. "With the weather factor diminishing in importance with near-record temperatures expected across some key consuming regions this week, further downward adjustment in HDD (heating degree days) accumulation would normally be pressing values lower," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Financial firm LSEG estimated 213 heating degree days over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from the 221 HDDs estimated on Monday. The normal level is 278 HDDs for this time of year. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 15. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February. However, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 110.4 bcfd this week to 113.3 bcfd next week. Forecasts for next week were higher compared to LSEG's outlook on Monday. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Tuesday amid lower Norwegian exports to Europe and higher demand. Gas prices rose more than 14% last week on record flows to LNG plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. Trump later said the two trading partners would not have to pay tariffs until early April on any goods that fell under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada. In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.8 bcfd over the past few days since Trump's tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data. That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023). The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's V VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. "We continue to expect 2026 Henry Hub prices to remain above $4/mmBtu to incentivize drilling increases in the Haynesville region, the current source of marginal U.S. dry gas production growth, to help keep storage comfortable in the 2026/27 winter as U.S. LNG exports continue to move higher," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

US natural gas prices fall - US natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Wednesday, driven by record production levels and predictions of milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which could dampen heating demand and enable utilities to draw less gas from storage. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 22.7 cents, or 5%, at $4.23 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 9:17 a.m. EDT. Prices rose to their highest level since December 2022 on Monday but fell 0.9% in the previous session. “I think the run-up this week was largely inspired by technical factors and bigger macro funds, but the weather this week has been rather bearish, so I think today’s action is just really a reflection,” Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 111.6 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week. This was a decrease from Tuesday’s forecast of 113.3 bcfd for next week. Meanwhile, LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February. LSEG estimated there would be 198 heating degree days over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 US states, down from the 213 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal level is 243 HDDs for this time of year. Gas prices rose more than 14% last week on record flows to LNG plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the US after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4.

Price of Natural Gas Futures Up 140% Year-over-Year: One More Reason for Inflation to Not Back off Easily by Wolf Richter -- The notoriously volatile price of US natural gas futures has been zigzagging higher since mid-2024 and overnight spiked to over $4.80 per million Btu, and currently trades at $4.52 per million Btu, up by 140% from a year ago.Nearly 43% of electricity in the US was generated by natural-gas-fired power plants in 2024. Natural gas is widely used for heating by residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Fertilizer makers use natural gas as feedstock. Natural gas is used as fuel for city buses, drayage trucks, garbage trucks, etc. And the US has been investing in a massive export boom of natural gas, with exporters taking up 19% of US production last year.For the past 20 years, it has been drill-baby-drill, and US natural gas production has more than doubled, turning the US into the largest natural gas producer in the world. Overproduction has caused the price of natural gas to collapse repeatedly.Over the past three decades, natural gas prices spiked to $10 per million Btu and higher, including to over $15 in 2005. Natural gas prices can go wild. And in 1997, natural gas had already been at $4.50. Power generators, utilities, and fertilizer makers purchase much of their projected needs with long-term contracts, so price changes in the futures market leave their near-term costs largely unaffected. But they might raise their prices anyway, and many have already done so, blaming the higher costs. Regulated utilities will do what regulators let them do.The CPI for natural gas piped to the homes across the US has risen by 6.4% since August (through January, February CPI will be released on Wednesday) and is up 4.9% year-over-year.Electricity prices have risen because regulators allow utilities to hike their prices. In California, for example, PG&E’s electricity prices have spiked with multiple price hikes and fee changes, as it passes on the costs of the settlements related to wildfire destruction, the costs of their wildfire mitigation efforts, other costs, and whatever, while its net income surged to $2.5 billion in 2024.National storage levels are running near the bottom of the five-year range for this time of the year, at 1.76 trillion cubic feet, down from 2.34 trillion cubic feet a year ago, when they were forming the new top of the five-year range. Forecasts for milder weather indicate that there will be less heating-related demand.But export demand, both via LNG to the rest of the world and via pipeline to Mexico, is a booming business and rose to 7.7 trillion cubic feet in 2024, using about 19% of US production in 2024.In January, Trump had lifted the freeze on LNG export permit applications for new LNG export terminals. Biden had paused approvals of permits for new export terminals in order to curtail future growth in demand from LNG exporters that could drive up wholesale prices of natural gas in the US. Since lifting the freeze, the Trump administration has approved four new LNG export projects and extensions of existing projects.It has become a huge business. And this demand from exporters comes on top of the growth in demand from power generators scrambling to provide electricity to new data centers (for AI and the cloud), which are enormous power hogs, and which are spouting like mushrooms.

Aethon: Haynesville E&Ps Hesitate to Drill Without Sustained $5 NatGas Prices - U.S. natural gas prices are rising, but possibly not high enough to entice increased drilling in the Haynesville Shale. Haynesville producers, like Aethon Energy, are watching with caution as natural gas strip prices rise. Dallas-based Aethon is sitting on top of multiple decades of Haynesville gas inventory, said President and Partner Gordon Huddleston. To massively step up drilling activity, the company needs to see higher prices—preferably above $5/Mcf—for a sustained period. “We’re starting to see that in 2026, but that really needs to carry beyond ’26 into ’27 and ’28,” Huddleston said during the 2025 CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference. After two years of low natural gas prices, rising demand is starting to push prices higher. Henry Hub strip prices currently average $4.70 for the rest of 2025, according to CME Group data. On March 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its outlook for natural gas prices upward due to higher consumption and lower storage inventories. The EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices to average $4.20/MMBtu in 2025, 11% higher than its forecast last month. In 2026, spot prices should average around $4.50/MMBtu in 2026, 8% over the EIA’s last forecast. Increasing LNG export capacity is also pushing gas demand higher. Producers anticipate an incremental 5 Bcf/d to 6 Bcf/d of demand to fuel new LNG exports within the next 12 months. But Haynesville operators aren’t racing to step on the gas pedal. Huddleston pointed to the market volatility producers saw in 2024 as a reason for the hesitancy. A warm winter season and the delayed startup of Golden Pass LNG knocked off around 2 Bcf/d of demand that gas producers expected to see materialize last year. Low prices forced Aethon, Expand Energy and other gas producers to curtail production and delay turning wells to sales. “Producers said, ‘here’s this demand coming. We’re going to try to get in front of that,’” Huddleston said, “and it didn’t materialize.” “It makes it even harder to do it again,” he said.

Federal court asks if it should continue hearing Line 5 suit - A federal appeals court is asking if it should hold off on considering a dispute over the Line 5 oil pipeline while a similar challenge plays out in state court.In a letter seeking additional briefing from the parties in the case, the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals asked whether the court’s abstention “is appropriate.”The 6th Circuit cited a 1971 Supreme Court case, Younger v. Harris, which held that a federal court should only intervene in proceedings already in state court when the defendant in the lawsuit will face irreparable harm.The letter, filed Monday, came a week before the 6th Circuit will hold a hearing on the dispute between Line 5 developer Enbridge and Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Wildcatter Harold Hamm Says Shale Needs $80 Oil for Costly Fields - Harold Hamm, the billionaire wildcatter and a major donor to President Donald Trump, has challenged a claim from the new US energy secretary that domestic oil companies could increase production even at prices as low as $50 a barrel. Hamm’s words represent one the first signs of public push-back from the US shale industry against the Trump administration’s energy policy. Hamm, 79, was one of the president’s biggest financial backers in last year’s election. Many in the sector have welcomed the new administration’s policy of cutting regulations and boosting domestic oil and gas production. But that support sits uneasily alongside Trump’s statements calling for significantly lower energy prices. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the Financial Times this week that while new supply will push down prices, oil companies will learn to innovate and bounce back. Speaking Thursday, Hamm, 79, the co-founder and chairman of closely held shale driller Continental Resources, warned that US drillers need $80-a-barrel oil to be able to cover costs at some wells. “There are a lot of fields that are getting to the point that’s real tough to keep that cost of supply down,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “When you get down to that $50 oil that you talked about, then you’re below the point where you’re going to ‘drill, baby, drill.’” West Texas Intermediate crude currently trades at around $67, having fallen from $80 in January amid concerns about weak Chinese demand and more supply from OPEC+. Shale operators are slowing production growth after years of drilling up their best locations. At this week’s CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston, executives for some of the largest US shale companies forecast US oil production will peak in the next three to five years. Scott Sheffield, who expects US output to peak at about 14 million barrels a day, said in a Bloomberg Television interview this week that the oil price needed for publicly traded drillers to cover costs and turn a modest profit is in the range of $50 to $55 a barrel. “That includes paying your dividend,” Sheffield said. “Nobody’s going to cut the dividend. It’s a no-no.” Hamm said he has yet to speak with Wright, the former chief of frack-provider Liberty Energy Inc., about the costs that shale operators face and the oil prices they need to thrive. “He and I are good friends and understand each other quite well,” Hamm said. “I look forward to that conversation.” Hamm added that Trump’s import tariffs are a concern because of the steel pipe needed to line oil wells. “That’s another thing that can add a great deal of cost to what we do,” he said. It’s helpful that there are some steelmakers in the US, Hamm said, “but they can’t supply it all.”

Youth lose climate lawsuit targeting Alaska LNG -An Alaska judge has dismissed a challenge from young activists who say a proposed project to ship liquefied natural gas from the North Slope to Asian markets would harm their right to a clean environment.The Tuesday decision from Alaska Superior Court Judge Dani Crosby comes as the Trump administration has championed the fossil fuel megaproject at the heart of the case. The youth challengers have vowed to appeal Crosby’s finding that stopping the Alaska LNG project is a job for state legislators — not the courts.“Precedent dictates this case must be dismissed on both the political question doctrine and prudential grounds,” Crosby wrote. “Important questions regarding climate change mitigation do not present justifiable questions because the Court lacks both the authority and the tools to reweigh the competing economic, environmental, social or conservation goals.”The judge noted that the state Legislature had found that the project was in the best interest of Alaskans. While the young challengers may be frustrated with that choice, Crosby wrote, “they may not utilize the courts to undercut” state lawmakers.

ExxonMobil Snatches 1.5 Mt/y From Canada’s Cedar LNG — The Offtake -A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 1.5 Mt/y: Arc Resources Ltd. has found a buyer for its 1.5 million ton/year (Mt/y) liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG project in British Columbia. The Calgary-based company disclosed Tuesday a deal to sell all of its LNG volumes from the project to an Asian trading unit of ExxonMobil. Cargoes linked to international indexes are expected to begin shipping in 2028, when Cedar LNG is anticipated to begin commercial operations.
• $4.20/MMBtu: Above-average storage withdrawals and increased demand in the Southeast prompted the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to raise its forecast for Henry Hub spot prices in 2024. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA researchers raised price assumptions for the year by 11% to an average of $4.20/MMBtu. Spot prices in 2026 are expected to be higher as additional LNG capacity comes online. EIA raised its 2026 average 8% to $4.50. NGI’s Henry Hubaverage currently sits at $4.545 as of Tuesday (March 12).
• 2 trips: Freeport LNG experienced a trip last Thursday (March 6) that knocked Train 3 offline for 11 hours and significantly dropped feed gas nominations to the facility for a day, according to Wood Mackenzie data. Nominations recovered heading into the weekend, but dropped again on Saturday when an issue at the facility knocked Train 2 offline for more than 9 hours. Engineers with the company blamed both issues on compressor failures, according to Texas Commission on Environmental Quality filings.
• 15.4 Bcf/d: Along with the Freeport LNG trips, Wood Mackenzie reported several pipeline maintenance events that could be squeezing available feed gas capacity for Gulf Coast LNG terminals. Planned maintenance on Station 2 of Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Tejas Pipeline in Texas could cause some gas to be rerouted to Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi export facility, according to Wood Mackenzie. The firm also estimated that compressor station maintenance on Columbia Gulf Transmission planned to start Thursday could limit feed gas to Cameron LNG and create market tightness for the Henry Hub. Average U.S. feed gas demand in the coming seven days was estimated as 15.4 Bcf/d Tuesday.
• 30 cargoes: The second week of March has ushered in a wave of tenders from companies across Asia seeing short and medium-term LNG supplies. CPC Corp. in Taiwan is seeking 14 cargoes for delivery throughout the year, while PetroVietnam Gas is seeking three cargoes from April to May, according to Kpler. But, the buy market is largely dominated by Indian companies seeking cargoes for industrial facilities and growing power markets. The ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel Corp. joint venture launched the largest tender of the period and is seeking 30 cargoes from April 2026 to 2031 to the Dahej and Hazira terminals.

Ovintiv’s North American Portfolio Backstopping ‘Significant Torque’ for Rising Natural Gas Prices -- Denver-based Ovintiv Inc., one of the largest natural gas producers in North America, is seeing its Western Canada options expand ahead of LNG Canada’s ramp-up, and as industrial demand from petrochemicals (petchem) and data centers begins to boom. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Henry Hub forward fixed natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. The multi-basin independent is throwing most of its financial weight this year to produce oil and condensate from the Permian and Anadarko basins, and the Montney Shale in Western Canada. However, about one-half of the production is weighted to natural gas. That means Ovintiv should have opportunities to open the tap when it’s time, CFO Corey Code said during the recent fourth quarter conference call.

Tourmaline CEO Urges Canadian Self Reliance, More LNG and Pipe Infrastructure as U.S. Trade War Escalates --Canada “needs to look after itself” and expand the nation’s energy infrastructure in light of U.S. tariff threats, according to Tourmaline Oil Corp. CEO Michael L. Rose. (chart of NGI's NOVA/AECO C natural gas spot price) Rose’s comments came during the Calgary-based independent’s fourth quarter conference call held earlier this month. He was joined by CFO Brian Robinson to discuss the results. Tourmaline, Canada’s largest natural gas producer and one of the nation’s largest natural gas liquids (NGL) operators, would be impacted by the on-again, off-again tariffs pushed by the Trump administration, Rose said.

Latin American LNG Prices Rise on Global Natural Gas Market Tightness — LatAm Recap -- April delivered ex-ship (DES) prices to LNG import terminals in Latin America rose Monday amid strengthening of benchmarks globally. April DES prices to the Bahia Blanca terminal in Argentina rose 35.7 cents to $13.21/MMBtu, according to NGI calculations. DES prices at the Pecém terminal in Brazil were $13.03, up 34.1 cents, and prices on Mexico’s West Coast at Manzanillo rose 13.6 cents to $13.23. DES prices are NGI’s cost-plus formulations based on natural gas benchmark prices from the supplying country, such as the United States or Trinidad and Tobago. They also factor in shipping costs to Latin America. More than half of LNG imports into Latin America currently come from the United States, according to Kpler data. Some volumes to Latin America are also re-routed from Europe.

Leading U.S. LNG Exporters, Global Traders See Natural Gas Demand Surpassing Previous Estimates - Cheniere Energy Inc., the United States’ largest LNG exporter, and Shell plc, the world’s largest global natural gas trader, are preparing for a rising wave of LNG demand through the next two decades. Two bar charts showing Shell plc's outlook for natural gas supply/demand. Speaking at the annual CERAWeek conference by S&P Global in Houston, Shell CEO Wael Sawan cautioned that the source of that growth, as may be the case with emerging economies, may go against common assumptions about the trajectory of the energy transition. Earlier in the year, Shell published an outlook that called for global LNG demand to rise by 60% of 2024’s levels by 2040. Much of that demand is expected to be driven from the economic rise of East and South Asian countries, but Sawan said it’s clear that demand for power and energy security across the globe is well established.

U.S.-flagged tanker, cargo ship in North Sea collision off coast of England, setting both vessels on fire - A U.S.-flagged tanker carrying jet fuel was struck by a cargo ship in the North Sea off the coast of eastern England on Monday, triggering multiple explosions, setting both vessels on fire and sending fuel pouring into the water, officials said. An English port boss said he had been told there was "a massive fireball" following the collision. Several hours after the collision happened, the cargo ship's owner said one crew member was missing. Efforts to locate the missing crew member were ongoing, the German-based Ernst Russ in a statement. Earlier, local lawmaker Graham Stuart said he was told by U.K. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander that 37 crew members were aboard the two ships, with one hospitalized and the other 36 mariners safe and accounted for. Crowley Maritime, which operates the U.S.-flagged chemical and oil products carrier MV Stena Immaculate, said the tanker was anchored in the North Sea off the coast of Hull, about 155 miles north of London, when it was struck by the Portugal-flagged container ship Solong. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's office said details of the collision and its cause "are still becoming clear." Abdul Khalique, head of the Maritime Center at Liverpool John Moores University, said it appeared the crew of the cargo ship had not been "maintaining a proper lookout by radar" as required by international maritime regulations. The Stena Immaculate was at anchor near the port of Grimsby, according to ship-tracking site VesselFinder. The Solong was sailing from Grangemouth in Scotland to Rotterdam in the Netherlands. According to the BBC, the Stena Immaculate was en route from Agio Theodoroi in Greece to Killingholme in the U.K. It is one of just 10 tankers enlisted in a U.S. government program designed to supply the armed forces with fuel during times of armed conflict or national emergency, the BBC reported. A cargo tank on the ship containing jet fuel ruptured, leaking fuel and a fire broke out, Crowley said. "The Stena Immaculate crew abandoned the vessel following multiple explosions onboard," Crowley said. "All Crowley mariners are safe and fully accounted for." The company said it was working with authorities to contain the fire and secure the vessel. Stuart said he was concerned about the "potential ecological impact" of the spill, whose cause was being investigated by the U.K.'s Marine Accident Investigation Branch. Meanwhile, business information service Lloyd's List Intelligence said the cargo ship was carrying 15 containers of the chemical sodium cyanide. It wasn't immediately clear if any of the containers were damaged.

Oil tanker collision in North Sea sparks fears of toxic spill as one person still missing - One person is still missing after a container ship carrying toxic sodium cyanide crashed into an oil tanker transporting jet fuel for the US military in the North Sea on Monday, sparking multiple explosions in what the UK government described as an "extremely concerning" situation. Lifeboats and a coastguard helicopter were called to the collision just before 10am near the entrance to the Humber Estuary off the East Yorkshire coast. The vessels involved were a Portuguese container ship called the MV Solong and the US-flagged tanker MV Stena Immaculate, which was on a short-term charter to the US Navy's Military Sealift Command. Initial reports stated 37 people were rescued, with one hospitalised. It has subsequently been reported by the Times that 38 people across both vessels are accounted for but that one crew member of the Solong is still missing. The Solong vessel was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence. It is unclear if any of the chemical - which can dissolve in water and release a toxic gas if heated - leaked into the water. The Stena Immaculate spilled some jet fuel into the water after sustaining a ruptured cargo tank, according to US logistics group Crowley which manages the vessel. HM Coastguard has said it is assessing the “likely counter pollution response required". Martyn Boyers, chief executive of the Port of Grimsby East, said he had been told there was “a massive fireball” after the crash. Two maritime security sources told the Reuters news agency there was no indication of any malicious activity or other actors involved.

Arrested Container Ship Captain That Hit US Tanker Is Russian National - The captain of the container ship that collided with a U.S.-flagged tanker carrying jet fuel for the U.S. military off the coast of England has been identified as a Russian national and taken into custody over suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter. Maritime experts are searching for answers to how the Portuguese-flagged Solong container ship, equipped with modern navigation equipment, failed to avoid U.S.-registered tanker Stena Immaculate off the East Yorkshire coast on Monday morning. BBC News said that local area police have launched a criminal investigation into the collision and arrested a 59-year-old Russian national piloting the ship at the time of the incident. He was arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter. "Detectives are continuing to conduct extensive lines of inquiry alongside partners in connection with the collision," Humberside Police said, adding they were also working with the Maritime and Coastguard Agency on the investigation.Both the container ship and tanker ignited after the collision on Monday. Coastguard officials said 36 people were rescued from the vessels, and one remains unaccounted for, presumably dead. A video reportedly taken from the bridge of #Solong showing the moments after the allision with #StenaImmaculate and the outbreak of fire. The low visibility due to fog is evident but does not excuse the failure to see or identify the anchored tanker on radar. pic.twitter.com/B0iIlvfdGc

Two ships collided in the North Sea: the captain, a 59-year-old Russian, was arrested. -Fuel for the conspiracy theory fire? The captain of the cargo ship that collided with a tanker carrying US military jet fuel on Monday is a Russian national, the ship's owner, Hamburg-based Ernst Russ, announced Wednesday morning. The captain, whose identity has not been released, is 59 years old and was arrested Tuesday afternoon by Humberside police on suspicion of negligent homicide. In the same statement, the shipowner also indicated that the rest of the crew was a mix of Russian and Filipino sailors. A British government source told local press on Monday that initial investigations did not suggest that the incident was caused by sabotage, but that it could not be ruled out either. However, the revelation of the nationality of the captain and a large part of the crew, the fact that the Solong rammed a ship flying the American flag,Stena Immaculate, and the fact that specialists still cannot explain how such an accident was possible, when both ships have radar systems to avoid collisions even in thick fog, has once again fueled suspicions of intentional action. To determine this, however, we will have to wait for the completion of the analysis of the recordings of the conversations from the two bridges – a system similar to that of airplane black boxes. The tanker Stena Immaculate It measures 183 meters in length, while the Solong It measures 140.6 meters. A crew member from this last ship is still missing and is now presumed dead. Data from the ship tracking website Marine Traffic suggests that the Solong was traveling at 16 knots at the time of impact. The impact was so brutal that theStena Immaculate, which was anchored about ten miles from the port of Hull,It moved almost 200 meters before stopping. After the collision, large explosions occurred, and both ships were engulfed in flames. The two hulls were initially stuck together, but separated on Monday night. From that moment on, the Solong began to drift south. On Tuesday night, the British Coastguard said the fire on board theStena Immaculate had "reduced considerably" and that flames were no longer visible. For its part, the Solong is still adrift and on fire Wednesday, but is not expected to sink. The Solong had recently failed safety inspections related to the ship's steering system. Documents from the inspections, dated July of last year, show that Irish authorities determined that "the emergency rudder position and compass reading communications were illegible." This was one of ten deficiencies found during the condition check of the Portuguese-flagged vessel, which was carried out in Dublin. Other problems included "inadequate alarms," rescue craft "not properly maintained," and fire doors "that did not meet" safety requirements. Separately, Virginia McVea, chief executive of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, said on Wednesday that "there have been no further reports of marine pollution from either vessel beyond what was observed during the initial incident." In this regard, the Florida-based company that owns the tanker, Crowley, confirmed that at least one of the tankers' fuel tanks began leaking on Monday, following the collision. According to the statements of a sailor of theStena Immaculate, on the American network CBS, "a huge ship appeared out of nowhere" and we only had "a few seconds to react." The sailor, who is not authorized to comment and who asked to remain anonymous, also said he heard shouts of "brace for impact." Other crew members of the American-flagged ship have indicated that there was no one on the bridge of the ship. Solong at the time of the accident. The other big question investigators are asking is whether all the containers are still intact on both ships. "One of our main concerns regarding the environment is that just south of the incident site is an area called the Silver Pit, which is a unique glacial tunnel in the seabed, with very steep walls. It's home to many marine creatures, including anemones and other marine life that feed in the area. So, we're obviously concerned about its vulnerability, as it's a very fragile and delicate ecosystem," Tammy Smalley, head of conservation at Lincolnshire Wildlife Trust, told BBC Radio 4 this morning. Another focus of concern for specialists is the area's seabirds. At this time of year, snipe and puffin gather in the North Sea before heading towards their breeding grounds. There are also waders and waterfowl that spend the winter on the coasts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. And a third element of concern is that the accident occurred during the mass migration season, with several bird species stopping to feed on the shores of these two counties.

European, Asian Natural Gas Imports Fall, but TTF Creeps Higher Ahead of U.S., Ukraine Meeting – LNG Recap --European natural gas prices strengthened on Monday ahead of talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials scheduled for Tuesday as efforts continue to end the war with Russia. The market is waiting for direction after relations between the countries were strained late last month after an argument broke out during a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump over the war. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) has fallen over much of the past month as Trump has pursued a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Could Ukraine’s Search for Secure LNG Supply Draw it Closer to the United States? - Ukraine is working to diversify its natural gas supplies and make up for a possible shortfall through LNG agreements as damage to its production facilities continues to mount. (european union natural gas storage levels) Those efforts could rely on spare U.S. LNG supply during a tight global market, but the fledgling commodity trading arm of DTEK Group, Ukraine's largest private energy company, is looking to build a portfolio on its path to becoming a regional natural gas player. DTEK’s D.Trading signed a heads of agreement with Venture Global LNG Inc. last year for 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) until 2046. Its first cargo was delivered at the end of last year from Calcasieu Pass to the Revithoussa port in Greece.

BP to supply Egypt with 160M cubic feet of natural gas daily in H2 2025 - BP plans to boost Egypt’s natural gas production by 160 million cubic feet per day from two wells in the King Mariout and Fayoum deepwater concessions in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half (H2) of 2025, an unnamed government official told Asharq Business. Increasing domestic gas production would help reduce Egypt’s reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, which surged last year due to a supply-demand gap that led to power outages affecting both households and industries. The country’s natural gas production has declined to 4.35 billion cubic feet per day, while demand stands at around 6.2 billion cubic feet daily. The official said bp is currently drilling two exploratory wells in the King Mariout 2 and Fayoum 5 concessions, each with an estimated production capacity of 80 million cubic feet per day. The wells are located in the North Alexandria concession area, where BP is working to assess actual producible reserves. The process is expected to be completed by April. The cost of drilling a single well in the North Alexandria concession area in the Mediterranean’s deep waters is estimated at around $150 million, the official added. To address the supply gap, the Egyptian government plans to import between 155 and 160 LNG shipments this year. At the end of last year, Egypt introduced new incentives to attract foreign investment in gas production, including allowing companies to export part of their new output to cover operational costs and increasing the price of their share of production from any field.

Mozambique LNG Clears Hurdle to Restart Construction With $4.7B U.S. Loan --The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has reauthorized a $4.7 billion loan for the long-delayed Mozambique LNG facility, bringing the project a step closer to restarting construction. The EXIM board at a meeting on Thursday reapproved a loan that was previously issued during President Trump’s first term. It needed reauthorization after majority stakeholder TotalEnergies SE declared a force majeure and stopped work on the project in 2021 amid rising violence and security threats posed by insurgents in Cabo Delgado province. TotalEnergies and its partners have been working for years to revive the $20 billion, 12.9 million tons/year (Mt/y) project. Management previously hoped to restart work at the end of last year, but it’s been waiting on EXIM and export credit agencies in the UK and the Netherlands to reapprove loans. The UK and Dutch are reportedly poised to reconfirm their commitments to the project as well.

Small oil spills pose threat to marine life --A new study by the Environment Authority (EA) has raised concerns over the rising number of small-scale, unattributed oil spills that continue to pose a significant risk to marine environments. The research, titled ‘Problem of Small-Scale Marine Oil Spills Discharged by Unattributable Vessels’, was led by Dr Omran bin Mohammed al Kamzari, Senior Specialist in Environmental Policy, Law, and Oil Pollution at EA, and published in the Pollution Study Journal. In an interview with Muscat Daily, Kamzari stressed that while large-scale oil spills have received substantial attention, the impacts of smaller, unreported spills are equally, if not more, damaging to marine ecosystems. “Oil pollution is one of the most serious threats to marine ecosystems. While large spills are often the focus of research and media attention, small spills, frequently of unknown origin, continue to harm coastal areas and marine life,” Kamzari explained. The study calls for better methods to identify fugitive polluters, improve oil spill cleanup strategies, and establish stronger compensation mechanisms for the damage caused by such spills. Kamzari underlined the urgency of addressing this issue, as the health of marine ecosystems and the livelihoods of coastal communities are at stake. One of the primary challenges in dealing with small, unattributed oil spills is the lack of international attention, according to Kamzari. Factors such as deep-water spills, routine ship operations, and unreported incidents make it difficult to trace the origin of the pollution. “When oil spills occur in deep waters or during routine ship operations, they are hard to detect. By the time they reach coastal areas, the source is often untraceable, complicating efforts to hold polluters accountable or claim compensation for cleanup costs,” he said. The study highlights that oil pollution from unknown sources is one of the most severe environmental threats to marine life, with only about 8% of oil spills being reported. The majority go undetected, continuing to pose a substantial risk to marine ecosystems. Kamzari also pointed out that small oil spills are often overlooked in media and economic discussions. “These spills do not receive the attention that larger incidents attract, and as a result, they are underreported. This lack of focus has led to continued environmental harm,” he said. However, he acknowledged that social media has played a significant role in improving public awareness and reporting of such events. Oman, situated along the heavily trafficked Strait of Hormuz, is particularly vulnerable to oil pollution. The strait sees daily oil tanker shipments, contributing to environmental risks, especially for Oman’s northern coasts. Sources of oil pollution include accidental tanker spills, illegal discharge of ballast water, and leaks from offshore oil facilities, all of which threaten marine life, including coral reefs, mangroves, and fish stocks. Kamzari explained that most small spills result from deliberate oil waste discharge by ships, especially during periods of minimal regulatory oversight. “Many vessels dispose of oil-contaminated ballast water or clean their fuel tanks at sea to avoid the costs of proper disposal,” he said.

US raises oil price forecast for next year -- The U.S. Department of Energy has reduced its forecast for the average price of Brent benchmark oil in 2025 from $74.50 to $74.22, APA-Economics reports citing the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).The price of WTI crude oil is expected to be $70.68 in 2025 (previous forecast – $70.62). Additionally, the EIA has updated its forecast for the average prices of mentioned oil benchmarks for 2026. According to the agency's estimates, the average price of Brent will be $68.47 per barrel (previous forecast – $66.46), and WTI will be $64.97 per barrel (previous forecast – $62.46). It is noted that in 2024, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $80.56 and $76.60, respectively.

Oil Prices Fall Over U.S Import Tariffs, Rising OPEC Production Oil prices fell on Monday over the impact of U.S. import tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as rising output from OPEC+ producers. Brent crude fell 6 cents to $70.30 a barrel by 0720 GMT after settling up 90 cents on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.96 a barrel, down 8 cents after closing 68 cents higher in the previous trading session. Latest data by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries secretariat as of March 3, said the price of its basket of twelve crudes stood at $75,16 a barrel on Friday, compared with $74,98 the previous day. WTI declined for a seventh successive week, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent was down for a third consecutive week after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed then delayed tariffs on its key oil suppliers Canada and Mexico, while raising taxes on Chinese goods. China retaliated against the U.S. and Canada with tariffs on agricultural products. “Tariff uncertainty is a key driver behind the weakness,” ING analysts said in a note, adding that oil price cuts from Saudi Arabia and deflationary signals from China also hurt sentiment. IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters that other factors weighing on oil prices include concerns about U.S. growth, the potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ opting to increase output. “Nonetheless, with much of the bad news likely factored in, we expect weekly support around $65/$62 to hold firm before a recovery back to $72.00,” he said in a client note in reference to the WTI price. Oil prices clawed back some loss on Friday after Trump said the U.S. would increase sanctions on Russia if the latter fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine. The U.S. is also studying ways to ease sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if Russia agrees to end its war with Ukraine, according to Reuters.

Oil Futures Dropped Due to Recession Fears-- Oil futures settled lower to start the week on Monday, with the front-month NYMEX WTI hitting the $65 mark as traders continued to assess the impact of the tariff war on the U.S. economy, amid weak demand and abundant supply fundamentals. The bearish sentiment in the oil futures market was also driven by concerns about a possible contraction of the U.S. economy in the following months as some tariffs imposed by the United States and its trade partners -- China, Canada and Mexico -- under the Trump administration will take effect this week. President Trump declared a one-month pause last week on additional trade tariffs levied on some imported goods from Canada and Mexico, which were schedule to go into effect on March 4. However, a 25% tax on imports on aluminum and steel from Canada and Mexico is expected to go into effect this week. Retaliatory tariffs from China ranging from 10% to 15% on multiple U.S. agricultural goods are also anticipated to take effect this week, in response to the 20% tax on imported Chinese goods implemented by the United States to date. Analysts have started to discuss the possibility of a recession in the U.S. in the coming months as a result of the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration. On March 6, the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasted that the U.S. GDP is expected to be at -2.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from a 2.3% expansion reported in February. This week, market participant will focus on U.S. inflation data for February to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, March 12. The market expectation for year-over-year inflation is 3%. In January, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5%, bringing the annualized inflation rate to 3.0%. The increase was driven by higher energy and food costs, with gasoline prices climbing 1.2% in the month. The NYMEX WTI futures contracts for April delivery fell by $1.07 to $65.97, front-month ICE Brent futures contract dropped by $1.16 to $69.20. RBOB futures contract for April delivery rose by $0.0191 to $2.0896 gallon while the April ULSD futures contract fell by $0.0373 to $2.1787 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index recovered for multi-day losses by climbing 0.18% to 103.99 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Oil settles down 1.5% as tariffs prompt fears of slow demand (Reuters) - Oil prices were down 1% on Monday on fears that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would slow economies around the world and slash energy demand while OPEC+ ramps up its supply. Brent crude oil futures futures settled at $69.28 a barrel, down $1.08, or 1.5%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $66.03 a barrel, shedding $1.01, 1.5%. Last week marked WTI's seventh consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent fell for a third consecutive week. U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies have roiled markets across the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on his country's biggest oil suppliers -- Canada and Mexico -- while also raising duties on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs of their own. "This market is on tenterhooks and there's a lot to be processing as we move forward," "There are recession talks for the U.S. and it's very concerning for the macro picture." Over the weekend, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump would not let up pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Investors now are worried about a possible economic slowdown that could curtail oil demand. Stocks, which crude prices often follow, continued a steep decline amid tariffs concerns, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling 2% in mid-day trade and the Nasdaq Composite sliding more than 3%. On Friday, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the OPEC+ group agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but could reverse the decision afterwards if there are market imbalances. Also on the supply front, Trump is seeking to choke off Iranian oil exports as part of efforts to pressure Tehran to rein in its nuclear programme. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that his country will not be bullied into negotiations. Possible sanctions against Iran and Russia could provide support in the short term, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. "Looking at the bigger picture, lingering uncertainties will likely make any oil rally brief," Varga said. Oil rebounded from six-month lows on Friday after Trump said the United States would intensify sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine. The U.S. is also studying ways to ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector if Moscow agrees to end its war with Ukraine, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Oil Prices Recover Amid Ongoing Uncertainties -Oil prices have climbed despite ongoing uncertainties in the commodities market, driven by fears over the global economic impact of tariffs, a potential US recession, and OPEC+ plans to boost output. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.5% to $69.32 per barrel, up from its previous close of $68.97. Meanwhile, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 0.48%, reaching $65.98 per barrel from $65.66 in the prior session. Persistent inflation and recession concerns continue to weigh on global markets, with US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies adding to economic uncertainty. His recent comments on tariffs have further fueled fears of a potential recession. In a Sunday interview, Trump did not rule out the possibility that tariffs could slow the US economy or contribute to rising inflation this year. When asked about a possible recession due to tariffs, Trump avoided making a direct prediction but described the situation as a “period of transition,” emphasizing that his policies aim to bring wealth back to America. He also acknowledged inflation concerns, noting that tariffs could have an impact but pointing out that interest rates have fallen. “Trump’s remarks triggered a sell-off as investors began pricing in the risk of weaker demand growth,” said Daniel Hynes, a commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. Market sentiment was further dampened by economic data from China, which revealed a larger-than-expected decline in consumer inflation. “The drop in service prices and a negative reading for core inflation reflect sluggish consumption,” Hynes added. The uncertainty surrounding US trade policies is set to intensify as a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports takes effect on March 12. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that Canada’s most populous province will impose a 25% surcharge on electricity supplied to US states. On the supply side, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are preparing to increase oil production from April. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Friday that they are ready to adjust their approach if market imbalances arise. Experts warn that a combination of slowing demand and rising supply could significantly impact oil prices in the coming months.

Continuing Concerns Over a U.S. Economic Slowdown - The oil market on Tuesday traded higher following Monday’s sell off that was prompted by the sharp equities market losses, although its gains were limited by continuing concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth. The crude market, which continued to trend lower in overnight trading, breached its previous low and sold off to a low of $65.29. The market later bounced off that level and retraced some of Monday’s losses as it posted a high of $67.17 by mid-morning. However, the market pared some of its earlier gains after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would impose an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, increasing the total tariff on those products to 50%. It traded back towards the $66 level and traded sideways ahead of the close as the market positioned itself ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports. The April WTI contract settled up 22 cents at $66.25 and the May Brent contract settled up 28 cents at $69.56. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.69 cents at $2.1968 and the RB market settling up 1.25 cents at $2.1050. In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast world oil demand of 104.1 million bpd in 2025, unchanged from a previous forecast, while demand is expected to increase by 1.2 million bpd to 105.3 million bpd in 2026, which is up 100,000 bpd from a previous estimate. World oil output in 2025 is estimated at 104.2 million bpd, down 400,000 bpd from a previous forecast. Output in 2026 is forecast to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 105.8 million bpd, down 400,000 bpd from a previous estimate. U.S. oil output in 2025 is forecast at 13.61 million bpd, up 20,000 bpd from a previous forecast, while output in 2026 is expected to increase by 150,000 bpd to 13.76 million bpd, which is up 30,000 bpd from a previous estimate. The EIA forecast that the 2025 Brent crude price will average $74.22/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $74.50/barrel and the 2026 forecast is expected to fall to $68.47/barrel, up from a previous forecast of $66.46/barrel. The average price of WTI in 2025 is forecast at $70.68/barrel, up from a previous forecast of $70.62/barrel and the average price in 2026 is forecast to fall to $64.97/barrel, which is up from a previous forecast of $62.46/barrel. U.S. trade advisor, Peter Navarro, said the 25% tariff increase on Canadian steel and aluminum will no longer take effect on Wednesday. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump said he is “probably so” going to reduce the recently increased tariffs on Canada after Ontario suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States. Ontario’s Premier said the electricity surcharge, which he announced earlier on Tuesday, will be suspended temporarily after U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, reached out and offered an olive branch. The Premier is expected to meet with the U.S. Commerce Secretary on March 13th. According to a joint U.S.-Ukraine statement following talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine has agreed to accept a U.S. proposal for an immediate 30 day ceasefire and to take steps toward restoring a durable peace for the country following Russia’s invasion.

Oil settles slightly up on weaker dollar, US economic fears cap gains (Reuters) - Oil prices settled slightly higher on Tuesday, helped by weakness in the dollar, but gains were capped by mounting fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth. Brent crude futures settled 28 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $69.56 a barrel after falling as low as $68.63 in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $66.25 a barrel after previous declines as well. The dollar index hit a four-month low, making oil less expensive for overseas buyers. But U.S. stock prices, which also influence the oil market, fell again, adding to the biggest selloff in months. Both crude benchmarks fell 1.5% on Monday, when the S&P 500 its biggest daily drop since December 18 and the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022. Oil prices pared gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he had instructed his commerce secretary to add an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, bringing the total tariff on those products to 50%. "That kind of drama is adding to the volatility here," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. Trump's protectionist policies have shaken global markets. He has imposed, then delayed tariffs on major oil suppliers Canada and Mexico, while also raising duties on China, prompting retaliatory measures. Over the weekend, Trump said a "period of transition" was likely and declined to rule out a U.S. recession. In supply, U.S. crude oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than prior estimates, at an average 13.61 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. Investors are waiting for U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the path of interest rates. They also are closely monitoring OPEC+ plans. The producer group has announced plans to increase output in April. A scaling back of U.S. tariffs would ease fears of inflation and economic contraction, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, but the recent oil price plunge meant it was "hard to see OPEC+ going ahead with its plan and releasing oil back to the market from April." On Friday, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that OPEC+ would go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production. Brent is finding strong technical support at around $70 a barrel and may look to stage a bounce, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding the OPEC+ supply response would be flexible, depending on market conditions. "If oil prices fall below the $70 per barrel mark for an extended period, output hikes may be paused in our opinion. OPEC+ will also keep a careful eye on Trump's Iran and Venezuela policies," he said. In the U.S., crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. The report comes ahead of U.S. government data on crude stockpiles due on Wednesday.

Oil Prices Rise On Hopes For Ukraine Peace Deal - Oil prices are trending higher as hopes rise for a peace deal that will end the three-year-old war between Ukraine and Russia.The government of Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire plan put forward by the U.S., if Russia also accepts the deal.The plan sees the U.S. immediately lift its pause on sharing intelligence information with Ukraine, and America will also resume military and humanitarian aid to that country.The agreement comes after negotiations were held on March 11 in Jedda, Saudi Arabia between high-level American and Ukrainian officials.News that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire has helped to send crude oil prices about 1% higher.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S. standard, is currently trading at $67.19 U.S. per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, is trading at $70.47 U.S. a barrel.In recent days, both oil prices were trading below the key support level of $70 U.S. a barrel.It is not known if Russia will accept the proposed 30-day ceasefire and enter into peace talks with Ukraine following three years of war between the countries.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to increase sanctions on Russia to get that country to entertain steps aimed at ending the war.Russia is the world’s third largest crude oil producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and its oil production and sales have been curtailed by sanctions imposed after it invaded Ukraine.Crude oil prices spiked above $100 U.S. a barrel in the months after Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in early 2022.

WTI Holds Gains After Big Gasoline Inventory Draw, US & OPEC Production Jump --Oil prices are rising again this morning, despite a surge in OPEC+ production reported for February and also in spite of a large crude build reported by API last night.The rise comes after the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it expects the market to remain under supplied until the third quarter. Last month, the agency forecast that inventories would begin rising by the end of June.A weakening greenback is also supporting prices as the currency suffers from chaotic U.S. trade policy."The lack of coherent policies is the primary trigger of the current dollar malaise. Confusion reigns. Will the situation worsen or brighten and the sell-off will change course? Clarity on US economic policies could steady the dollar boat," PVM Oil Associates noted.So all eyes on the official data this morning to see if it confirms the big crude build. API

• Crude +4.25mm
• Cushing
• Gasoline -4.56mm
• Distillates +421k

DOE:

• Crude +1.45mm
• Cushing -1.23mm
• Gasoline -5.74mm - biggest draw since Oct
• Distillates -1.559

Crude stocks rose last week (but less than API reported), but it was the major draw in gasoline stocks that caught traders' eyes... For the first time in four weeks, the Trump admin added to the SPR (+275k barrels)... US crude production rose back near record highs last week... WTI is holding gains above $67 for now...

Oil Rebounds on Softer Inflation and Tightening Market Outlook -- Oil extended gains as a stream of bullish data out of the US pointed to resilient domestic demand, even as trade strife continued to weigh on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.2% to settle near $68 a barrel, continuing a rebound from oversold territory, while Brent settled just below $71. US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering a reprieve after months of stalling inflation progress. At the same time, US government figures Wednesday showed gasoline demand is up to 9.2 million barrels a day, the highest level since November. The nation’s oil inventories gained by 1.5 million barrels, a smaller buildup than the 4.2-million-barrel increase projected by an industry group, while reserves fell at the Cushing hub. Still, futures remain far below their mid-January highs on the chaotic rollout of US tariffs, OPEC+ plans to add supply and a weakening demand outlook in China. Limiting gains on Wednesday were reports that the cartel’s crude production surged last month as Kazakhstan further breached its output quota, though the nation agreed on Wednesday to adhere to the limit in the near future. “Crude is rallying amid a risk-on sentiment following a softer CPI print, as it continues to trade within the vortex of macro-driven moves,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “The latest OPEC report highlights overproduction by several members, but the market remains firmly focused on broader macroeconomic dynamics.” Geopolitical concerns also remain front and center. Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia that raises the possibility of a pause of hostilities in the three-year-old war. Meanwhile, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said US efforts to kickstart nuclear talks with the Islamic Republic are a ploy that will lead to tighter sanctions on the nation’s economy. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration slashed its prediction for a surplus for this year and halved its outlook for a glut in 2026, citing the prospect of diminished flows from Iran and Venezuela. WTI for April delivery rose 2.2% to $67.68 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement advanced 2% to $70.95 a barrel.

Oil eases on concerns about escalating tariff wars impact - Brent futures fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $70.88 a barrel by 0107 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.57 a barrel. Oil prices eased on Thursday after surging the day before as worries about the impact of intensifying tariff wars on global economic growth and energy demand outweighed the positive sentiment from a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. gasoline stocks.Brent futures fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $70.88 a barrel by 0107 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.57 a barrel.Both benchmarks rallied about 2% on Wednesday as U.S. government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories.U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Wednesday, which was less than the 2 million-barrel rise forecasters had expected

Focus on Tariffs Raising U.S. Recession Fears - The oil market on Thursday continued to trade within its recent trading range from $65.00 to $68.50 as the market weighed economic concerns and its impact demand. President Donald Trump’s focus on tariffs has shaken investors, consumers and business confidence and raised U.S. recession fears. The market breached its previous high and posted a high of $67.94 in overnight trading. However, it was unable to sustain its gains amid the uncertainty created by the seesawing tariff announcements and the expected impact on the global economy and thus demand. The market remained pressured and erased its gains, trading to a low of $66.37 by mid-day. The April WTI contract settled down $1.13 at $66.55 and the May Brent contract settled down $1.13 at $69.88. The product markets also ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.41 cents at $2.1622 and the RB market settling down 1.7 cents at $2.1331. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly oil market report that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year, up 100,000 bpd from its previous forecast, after a downward revision to its 2025 demand growth forecast. The IEA said the surplus could grow by a further 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ extends its unwinding of output cuts and fails to rein in overproduction against quotas. The IEA’s February oil market report had suggested a slightly narrower surplus of around 500,000 bpd. The IEA revised down its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 bpd to around 1 million bpd, with growth driven largely by Asia, specifically China’s petrochemical industry. On the supply side, the IEA sees 2025 global supply growth doubling relative to the 2024 pace of growth to around 1.5 million bpd, assuming OPEC+ maintains cut levels after its planned April unwinding. It estimates global supply for 2025 at 104.5 million bpd. It added that OPEC may actually only add around 40,000 bpd of oil to the market following its April cut unwinding from Saudi Arabia and Algeria, because continued overproduction from other member states leaves no room to open taps further. It reported that OPEC+ led a 240,000 bpd increase in world oil supply in February, due to record output from Kazakhstan and an increase of 130,000 bpd from Iran and Venezuela. It downgraded its Venezuelan supply forecast for 2025 by 190,000 bpd. The IEA continues to see non-OPEC+ production driving the majority of supply growth in 2025, forecasting a 1.5 million bpd increase driven mostly by the Americas.On Thursday, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran’s Oil Minister, Mohsen Paknejad and targeted more companies and vessels linked to the “shadow fleet” that Iran uses to circumvent sanctions.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was not going to change his mind on imposing tariffs on April 2^nd. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that Russia supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but that any truce would have to address the root causes of the conflict and that many crucial details needed to be sorted out.

Oil settles down more than 1% on tariff worry, supply-demand expectations - Oil prices fell over 1 per cent on Thursday as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns, including the risk that tariff wars between the U.S. and other countries could hurt global demand as well as uncertainty stemming from a U.S. proposal for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Brent futures settled $1.07, or 1.5 per cent, lower at $69.88 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.13, or 1.7 per cent, to $66.55 a barrel. The International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, with global demand now expected to rise by just 1.03 million bpd, off last month's forecast by 70,000 bpd. The report cited deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including escalating trade tensions. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 200 per cent tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports from Europe, opening a new front in a global trade war and sparking investor worries about stiffer trade barriers around the world's largest consumer market. Trade tensions have rattled investors, consumers and business confidence. U.S. stock indexes fell, dragging down oil market sentiment despite favorable fundamentals such as government data showing tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories, said Phil Flynn senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "It's creating this push-pull dynamic," Flynn said. "Do we focus on supply and demand, which still looks pretty bullish, or do we focus on tariffs?" The tariffs situation is the major factor weighing on the market's perception of oil demand growth in 2025, said Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates. "The expectation is that the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are going to ultimately impact the consumer," Lipow said. Also on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow agreed with U.S. proposals to stop fighting but any ceasefire should lead to a lasting peace and address root causes of the conflict. The market is weighing the potential for a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said he "remains skeptical" that this would boost the availability of Russian oil. With Trump's stated commitment to cheaper oil, Citi analysts said their outlook for Brent by the second half of 2025 is $60 a barrel. On Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Kazakhstan led a sizeable jump in February crude output by OPEC+. The producer group seeks to enforce adherence to agreed output targets, even as it intends to unwind production cuts. Worries about flagging jet fuel demand weighed further on markets, with JP Morgan analysts saying that U.S. Transportation Security Administration data showed "passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5 per cent year-over-year, following stagnant traffic in February". However, the JP Morgan analysts added: "As of March 11, global oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, expanding 1.7 million barrels per day year-over-year and exceeding our projected increase for the month by 60,000 barrels per day."

Oil prices rebound on unclear path to Ukraine ceasefire -- Oil prices rebounded on Friday after a more than 1% loss in the previous session as investors weighed the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies to Western markets. Brent crude futures were up 73 cents, or 1.04 %, to $70.61 a barrel at 1:18 p.m. EDT (1718 GMT), after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.27 a barrel, up 72 cents, or 1.08%, after closing down 1.7% on Thursday. Prices are set to end the week more or less stable from last Friday, when Brent settled at $70.36 and WTI at $67.04. “Brent oil has hovered around the $70 mark for the past two weeks. Whether it will remain at this level in the coming week depends on the political news situation,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but sought a number of clarifications and conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting. “If the prospect for a ceasefire continues to be pushed into the future, the market would expect Russian oil to be under sanctions for an extended period of time,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates. On Friday, Trump again urged Russia to agree to a ceasefire proposal, saying on his private social media platform that he would extract the U.S. from what he called a “real ‘mess’ with Russia”. The Trump administration had said a licence allowing energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expired this week. Chinese state firms are also curbing Russian oil imports on sanctions risks, sources told Reuters. China and Russia stood by Iran after the U.S. demanded nuclear talks with Tehran, with senior Chinese and Russian diplomats saying dialogue should only resume based on “mutual respect” and all sanctions ought to be lifted. “Most price projections were to the downside in the short term, but geopolitical tension could still cause supply disruptions,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients. The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the U.S. and weaker-than-expected global demand. Unstable macroeconomic conditions caused by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations prompted the IEA to cut its demand growth estimates for the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year. “High risks on the demand side and increasing supply from OPEC+ argue against a sustained recovery in oil prices,” Commerzbank analysts said. In the U.S., energy firms this week kept the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating unchanged, services company Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, was steady at 592 in the week to March 14.

Oil Futures Mixed Amid Weak Demand, Ample Supply Outlook -- Crude oil futures rebounded Friday morning despite the International Energy Agency forecasting on Thursday that oil supply will exceed the global demand in 2025, driven by an escalation of the trade tariff war. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract edged up by $0.24 to $66.79 bbl while the ICE Brent futures contract for May delivery increased by $0.26 to $70.14 bbl. In the opposite direction, April RBOB futures contract fell by $0.0026 to $2.1305 gallon and April ULSD futures climbed by $0.0133 to $2.1489 gallon. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.16% to 103.7 against a basket of foreign currencies. Expectations of abundant global supplies are expected to continue putting pressure on oil futures markets as uncertainty about the impact of trade tariffs on the global economy persist. The IEA forecasted Thursday that the growth in global oil demand is set to accelerate to over 1 million bpd in 2025, from 830,000 bpd in 2024 to reach 103.9 million bpd. In its Oil Market Report, the IEA anticipates that Asia will account for nearly 60% of gains due to a growth of Chinese petrochemical feedstocks. Domestically, abundant supplies were also confirmed this week by Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute data showing a build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended March 7. The EIA reported commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 million bbl to 435.2 million bbl last week, lower than the 4.247 million bbl build reported by API for the same week. The trade tensions ignited by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imported goods from China, Canada and Mexico have affected recently the projections of global supply and demand fundamentals and price forecast for the two main oil benchmarks.

Oil ends higher as tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran, Russia may disrupt global supplies Oil futures finished higher on Friday, with news of tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia having the potential to disrupt global crude supplies. U.S. crude prices eked out gain for the week - their first in eight weeks - as traders continued to monitor rising trade tensions and their impact on the economy and demand for oil.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for April delivery climbed 63 cents, or nearly 1%, to settle at at $67.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices edged up by 0.2% for the week based on the front-month contract, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- May Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 70 cents, or 1%, to $70.58 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It tacked on 0.3% for the week.
• -- April gasoline RBJ25 added 0.7% at $2.1487 a gallon, up 1.9% for the week, while April heating oil HOJ25 rose 0.2% to $2.1666 a gallon, but posted a weekly loss of 2.2%.
• -- Natural gas for April delivery NGJ25 settled at $4.104 per million British thermal units, down 0.2% for the day and losing 6.7% for the week.

Oil benchmarks drew some support from tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia, but remained weighed down by the International Energy Agency's bearish forecast for the global supply-demand equation, Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, told MarketWatch. In a report released Thursday, the IEA cut its estimates for oil demand growth in the fourth quarter of last year and the current quarter. "Overall, oil benchmarks are unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound over the near term as long as the risk of an oversupply looms large," said Tan. Month to date, WTI oil prices were trading down by 3.7%. The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday announced tighter sanctions on Iran - targeting its minister of petroleum, Mohsen Paknejad, as well a number of specific shipping companies. The impact of the tightened sanctions on oil prices will "depend more on the enforcement of sanctions than their severity," analysts at J.P. Morgan wrote in a note on Friday. Currently, Iranian crude exports have remained relatively stable at around 1.7 million barrels per day, surpassing 2024 and 2023 levels, with an estimated 46% of February's exports shipped on sanctioned vessels, the analysts said - though Iranian crude in floating storage has been steadily increasing. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report said the U.S. tightened sanctions on Russia by restricting payments for energy. The Trump administration quietly let expire a license covering payments for energy to a handful of Russian banks that were still allowed to receive payments in U.S. dollars, the report said. "Despite nearly 16% of the Russian tanker fleet being under U.S. sanctions, Russian exports of crude oil and oil products continue to flow," the J.P. Morgan analysts said - with the current four-week average for total liquid exports standing at 5.7 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since June 2024. Against this backdrop, prices for WTI and Brent saw a modest rise for the week, with WTI just managing to snap a streak of seven straight weekly declines. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he didn't support an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, a development which was supportive for oil prices, analysts said. "If no solution is found, sanctions against Russia could be tightened. Tougher sanctions had pushed oil prices sharply higher at the turn of the year. However, Russia's oil exports have since recovered significantly," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. Meanwhile, investors continue to gauge the potential economic fallout from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and retaliatory measures threatened by trading partners. Trump on Thursday threatened 200% tariffs on wine and all other alcoholic products from the European Union, saying the import taxes would come "shortly" unless the E.U. backs down from its plan to hit American whiskey with a 50% levy on April 1.

The Almost Unbelievable Details Of The Great Gas Pipeline Caper Of 2025 This is the most astounding thing I have heard of in a long, long time. It almost is too fantastical to believe. If it happened here in the US or West, it would be all over the front pages and on every newscast. Agents would be angling for the movie rights.What am I talking about? Briefly put, 800 Russian special ops marched 12 km. (7.2 miles!) through an abandoned gas pipeline (in some portions crawled apparently), came out the other side, and in conjunction with other Russian troops, closed the trap door on Zelensky's Kursk misadventure.A bit of context: last year the EU closed the door on purchasing cheap Russian gas, which flowed out of Russia underneath Ukraine and into Europe. Zelensky obligingly cut it off on his end. No matter that you ruin your economies and your citizens don’t have enough heat in the winter by buying the much more expensive LNG from the U.S. (or ironically, the gas that Russia sells to India who sells to the U.S. who sells, with 2 markups, to Europe.)That is a small price to pay, I suppose, for all the virtue you can signal by not purchasing that nasty Russian gas directly. Anyway, there remained a enormous gas pipeline, now completely empty, and the Russians saw an opportunity.How did they do it? I get much of my real news from Telegram channels. This is how one explained the plan:

• 1) The gas pressure pumps were stopped and the gas was sucked out
• 2) Oxygen was pumped into the pipeline
• 3) Diggers dug out rooms for assembly and toilets were installed
• 4) Water, food and ammunition was brought in to these assembly rooms
• 5) 800 soldiers went through the pipe to the assembly rooms
• 6) The soldiers waited 4 days in the assembly rooms and in the pipe close to the exit
• 7) When the signal was given, they ran out and went into the industry zone of Sudzha
• 8) The Ukrainian army was surprised to see such a huge force in their rear, they began to panic and became disorganized
• 9) Russians liberated many settlements in Kursk region, due to this

Below: blue=Ukrainian control, orange=recaptured by Russia, yellow=current fighting, red=Russian incursions into Ukraine), via Kalibrated maps on X.

'Ukraine Will Not Recognize Any Territory Occupied By Russia': Zelensky --The Kremlin says it is "studying" statements issued by the US and Ukrainian delegations following yesterday's talks in Jeddah, and further describes Russian officials are waiting for a fuller briefing from the US on the proposal. The 30-day ceasefire plan calls for a halt to all the fighting on land, sea and in the air - which can be extended by mutual agreement, with a hoped-for path to a permanent truce based on negotiations in the interim. President Zelensky in a Tuesday X post said the ceasefire will apply to missile, drone and bomb attacks "not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line" - though its as yet unclear what mechanism there will be to monitor this.Update(1210ET): On Wednesday President Zelensky shut the door on territorial concessions, awkwardly at a moment Ukraine has just agreed to a US plan for a 30-day ceasefire intended to pave the way for extended peace negotiations. An initial statement from the Kremlin said that Putin likely to eventually agree to truce but with own terms as Moscow "studies" the Trump-sponsored proposal hammered out during the Tuesday Jeddah talks."We are fighting for our independence. Therefore, we will not recognize any occupied territories as Russia's. This is a fact," Zelensky said in the fresh comments. "Our people have fought for this, our heroes died. How many injured, how many passed. No one will forget about it... This is the most important red line. We will not let anyone forget about this crime against Ukraine."But Russia's red line in any near-future negotiations will be to demand recognition of the Russian Federations sovereign control over the four easter territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions - which President Putin has previously referred to as "our citizens forever." As for Zelensky's new proclamation that he won't cede territory, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters just after the Ukraine-US talks in Saudi Arabia that discussions with Kiev's delegations included "territorial concessions" as part of a negotiated settlement. The suggestion from the US side is that Ukraine showed openness and willingness on this question. So either the two allies can't get on the same age (which is no surprise), or else Zelensky is trying to tank these negotiation efforts before they ever get off the ground, also as the White House has pressed Kiev to hold new presidential elections. Fresh comments from Zelensky asserting Ukraine will NOT recognize any territory occupied by Russia...'Ukraine will NOT recognize any territory occupied by Russia' – Zelensky That will surely help the peace talks... https://t.co/JN7f7aWy5ypic.twitter.com/gdLyCvDTLECertainly Russia sees no need to rush into negotiations, especially if Zelensky is unwilling to budge on territory in the east, given all the battlefield gains of late. Kursk will also soon return to full Russian control, as Ukrainian forces there are reportedly in disarray, and as Moscow has taken back over a dozen key sites just this week.

Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza, Ramping Up Collective Punishment - Israel on Sunday said it was cutting off electricity to the Gaza Strip as it ramps up the collective punishment of the civilian population to pressure Hamas to release Israeli hostages, violating the ceasefire deal reached in January. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen made the announcement, saying he instructed the Israel Electric Corporation to immediately stop selling electricity to power stations in Gaza. “We will employ all the tools available to us so that all the hostages will return, and we will ensure that Hamas won’t be in Gaza on the ‘day after,'” Cohen said. The move is expected to impact Gaza’s water supply since electricity powers desalination plants that produce drinking water.Since March 2, Israel has blocked the entry of aid, medicine, fuel, and all other goods into Gaza, a war crime backed by the US. The UN’s World Food Program has warned that it’s running out of food supplies in Gaza, and Palestinians report a sharp rise in prices since Israel imposed the total siege.Israel is demanding that Hamas release more Israeli hostages but without a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or commitment to a permanent ceasefire, which were both conditions of the second phase of the initial deal. Hamas continues to call for the implementation of the second phase, saying it will not release the remaining hostages without an Israeli commitment to end the genocidal war permanently.The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Israel is planning a series of escalatory steps that could lead to the full-scale resumption of its genocidal war. The report said that after cutting all aid to Gaza, the next step was cutting off electricity and water. After that, if Hamas doesn’t agree to Israel’s terms, airstrikes could resume, followed by mass displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and another Israeli invasion.The Journal report said an Israeli invasion of the territories it withdrew from in Gaza seems inevitable.However, some US officials, including Adam Boehler, President Trump’s special envoy for hostage affairs, who held direct talks with Hamas, have said they believe a deal can be reached.“I think you could see something like a long-term truce, where we forgive prisoners, where Hamas lays down their arms, where they agree they’re not part of the political party going forward. I think that’s a reality. It’s real close,” Boehler told CNN on Sunday.

Yemen's Houthis Announce Renewed Blockade on Israeli Ships Due to Lack of Gaza Aid - Yemen’s Houthis announced on Tuesday night that it has re-imposed its blockade on Israeli shipping in response to Israel blocking the entry of aid and all other goods into Gaza.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said that any Israeli ship that enters the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden will be targeted.Saree said the “ban” on Israeli ships entering those waters will continue until “the crossings to the Gaza Strip are reopened and aid, food, and medicine are allowed in.”The announcement came after Houthi Abdul Malik al-Houthi issued an ultimatum to Israel on Friday, saying the attacks would resume if aid wasn’t allowed to enter Gaza within four days.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, ceased their attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked shipping once the Gaza ceasefire deal was reached. But the group had vowed that it was ready to intervene if Israel violated the agreement.Renewed Houthi attacks could mean the US will resume its bombing campaign against Yemen. From January 2024 to January 2025, the Biden administration launched hundreds of missile strikes on Yemen, which didn’t deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation in the Red Sea.So far, under the new Trump administration, the US has not bombed the Houthis but appears to be preparing for the possibility. The administration has re-designated the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” and slapped new sanctions on the group on Wednesday.President Trump also recently loosened restrictions on drone strikes and special operations raids, and US officials said the move was made with the Houthis in mind as a potential target, along with al-Shabaab in Somalia, which US Africa Command has targeted at least three times under the new Trump administration.

Trump orders strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and issues new warning to Iran --President Donald Trump said he ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi rebels cease their attacks on shipping along a vital maritime corridor. The Houthis said at least 18 civilians were killed. “Our brave Warfighters are right now carrying out aerial attacks on the terrorists’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses to protect American shipping, air, and naval assets, and to restore Navigational Freedom,” Trump said in a social media post. “No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World.”He also warned Iran to stop supporting the rebel group, promising to hold the country “fully accountable” for the actions of its proxy. It comes two weeks after the U.S. leader sent a letter to Iranian leaders offering a path to restarting bilateral talks between the countries on Iran’s advancing nuclear weapons program. Trump has said he will not allow it to become operational.The Houthis reported explosions in their territory Saturday evening, in the capital of Sanaa and the northern province of Saada, the rebels’ stronghold on the border with Saudi Arabia, with more airstrikes reported in those areas early Sunday. Images online showed plumes of black smoke over the area of the Sanaa airport complex, which includes a sprawling military facility. The Houthis also reported airstrikes early Sunday on the provinces of Hodeida, Bayda, and Marib.At least 18 people were killed, including 13 in Sanaa and five in Saada, according to the Houthi-run health ministry. At least 24 others were wounded, including nine in Sanaa and 15 in Saada, it said.A U.S. official said this was the beginning of air strikes on Houthi targets that are expected to continue. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press.Nasruddin Amer, deputy head of the Houthi media office, said the airstrikes won’t deter them and they would retaliate against the U.S. “Sanaa will remain Gaza’s shield and support and will not abandon it no matter the challenges,” he added on social media.Another spokesman, Mohamed Abdulsalam, on X, called Trump’s claims that the Houthis threaten international shipping routes “false and misleading.”The airstrikes come a few days after the Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. They described the warning as affecting the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.There have been no Houthi attacks reported since then.

Tehran Slams US Ending Waiver That Allowed Iraq To Buy Electricity from Iran - Iran on Monday denounced the US decision not to renew a sanctions waiver for Iraq that allowed it to purchase electricity from neighboring Iran, a move that’s part of the Trump administration’s so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Tehran.“Such statements are an admission of lawlessness, an admission of crimes against humanity, because the US sanctions, the unilateral US sanctions, against the Iranian nation have no justification or legal basis,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei.Baghaei said the US ending the waiver, which expired on Sunday, was “absolutely illegal.” The waiver first started in 2018 after the previous Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal by reimposing sanctions on Iran. Iraqis are worried that the lack of electricity from Iran will cause more power outages in the country. It’s also unclear if Iraq will still be able to purchase gas from Iran. The import of electricity from Iran, combined with the power generated by Iranian gas, accounts for 30% of Iraq’s electricity. Also on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Iran would not negotiate with the US in the face of increasing sanctions. “We will NOT negotiate under pressure and intimidation. We will NOT even consider it, no matter what the subject may be,” he wrote on X.Araghchi also said that Iran’s nuclear program will always be peaceful despite claims from US and Israeli officials that Tehran wants a nuclear bomb. “Iran’s nuclear energy program has always been—and will always remain—entirely peaceful. There is fundamentally therefore no such thing as its ‘potential militarization,'” he said.President Trump recently acknowledged that Iranian leadership does not seek nuclear weapons but chose to increase sanctions on Iran anyway.

Iran Receives Trump Letter, Ayatollah Khamenei Again Rejects Talks in Face of US Pressure - A letter from President Trump was delivered to Iran by the UAE on Wednesday, an offer for negotiations that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said was a “deception” meant to create the impression that the US was the reasonable party and that Tehran refuses to negotiate. Khamenei and other Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected the idea of talks with the Trump administration in the face of increasing US sanctions and threats of potential military action. Last week, when Trump discussed the letter in an interview, he warned that “there are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal.”Khamenei said one reason Iran was unable to negotiate with President Trump was the fact that during his first administration, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.“So why do we refuse to negotiate? This same person tore up the JCPOA,” Khamenei said. “How can we negotiate with this person? In negotiations, one must be sure that the other party will fulfill their commitments. When we know that they will not keep their word, what’s the point?”Trump wants a deal on Iran’s nuclear program even though he’s acknowledged that Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb. The US also wants to impose restrictions on Iran’s conventional weapons and its relationship with its allies in the region, ideas Khamenei rejected over the weekend.“They will be about defense capabilities, about international capabilities of the country. (They will urge Iran) not to do (certain) things, not to meet some certain people, not to go to a certain place, not to produce some items, your missile range should not be more than a certain distance. Is it possible for anybody to accept these?” Khamenei said on March 8.Last year, Khamenei expressed an openness to direct talks with the US, saying there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.” He made the comments shortly after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in.Pezeshkian vowed during his campaign to engage directly with Western countries in an effort to get sanctions relief, and Khamenei’s comments appeared to give him the green light to pursue the idea. But since Trump re-imposed his “maximum pressure campaign,” both Khamenei and Pezeshkian have discouraged the idea of negotiations with the US.On Tuesday, Pezeshkian strongly rejected the idea of talks. “It is unacceptable for us that they give orders and make threats. I won’t even negotiate with you. Do whatever the hell you want,” he said.

Qatar Calls for Israel Nuclear Facilities To Be Brought Under IAEA Supervision - Qatar has renewed its calls for Israel’s nuclear facilities to be brought under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and for Israel to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state, which would require Israel to abolish its nuclear stockpile.Israel has a covert nuclear weapons program that it does not officially acknowledge and is estimated to have somewhere between 90 and 300 warheads. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said that Doha’s ambassador to the UN in Vienna, Jassim Yacoub al-Hammadi, made a statement concerning Israel’s nuclear program during a meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Governors.“Hammadi underscored the need for the international community and its institutions to uphold their commitments under resolutions of the UN Security Council, the UN General Assembly, the IAEA, and the 1995 Review Conference of the NPT, which called on Israel to subject all its nuclear facilities to IAEA safeguards,” the Foreign Ministry said.The statement added that Hammadi “pointed out that all Middle Eastern countries, except Israel, are parties to the NPT and have effective safeguard agreements with the Agency.”The IAEA’s Board of Governors often censures Iran through Western-drafted resolutions for its nuclear program even though it is subject to IAEA inspections, and, despite the hype over uranium enrichment levels, there’s no evidence Tehran is seeking a bomb.On the other hand, Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program, which is not subject to any inspections, rarely gets any attention. This is largely due to the fact that the US also does not acknowledge its existence and doesn’t put any pressure on Israel to sign the NPT.The US cannot recognize the existence of Israel’s nuclear weapons since foreign assistance laws prohibitmilitary aid to nuclear-armed countries that are not subject to IAEA inspections.

Qatar to provide gas to Syria via Jordan with a US nod, sources say - Qatar is set to provide Syria with gas via Jordan to improve the nation's meagre electricity supply and boost Syria's new rulers, according to three people familiar with the matter, in a move that a U.S. official said had Washington's approval. It would be the most significant tangible support for the new administration in Damascus by Qatar, one of the region's sternest opponents of the now-deposed Bashar al-Assad and strongest backers of the rebels-turned rulers who replaced him. A U.S. official said the gas deal had a nod of approval from President Donald Trump's administration without saying how this was communicated. Qatar's state news agency later said an agreement had been signed between Qatar's development fund and Jordan's energy ministry to provide Damascus with "an approved supply of natural gas" via Jordan to help address Syria's electricity shortage, without mentioning Syria's new rulers or Washington. Qatar's fund will provide Jordan's energy ministry with a grant to supply Syria with the gas, the fund told Reuters in an email. Jordanian energy minister Saleh al-Kharabsheh told Jordan's state news agency the initiative would be fully funded by Qatar's fund. The gas will be received at Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba and pumped to Syria via the Arab Gas Pipeline, Jordanian energy minister al-Kharabsheh said. A segment of the pipeline runs from Aquaba north across Jordan to Syria. The U.S. green light and efforts to encourage a deal between Kurdish forces in Syria's north and Damascus suggest the U.S. remains actively engaged in Syria, despite Washington moving more cautiously than European states to ease sanctions. The gas would be transferred from Jordan via a pipeline to the Deir Ali power plant in southern Syria, two of the sources said. The move will initially boost the Deir Ali power plant's output by 400 megawatts per day, an amount that would "gradually increase", according to the Qatari fund's statement. Estimates of Syria's recent power capacity range up to around 4,000 MW.

Hundreds Killed in Syria's Northwest in Fighting, Mass Executions - Thursday’s reports of fighting between the Syrian government and Alawite militias in Latakia Governorate have exploded into what some are calling an outright insurgency, with hundreds of people killed and reports of the ruling Islamists of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) carrying out mass executions of members of the Alawite minority. 162 Alawite non-combatants were reportedly executed.Exact figures are difficult to confirm so far, but between Thursday and Friday over 200 people have been killed in the ongoing fighting. This includes combatant death tolls of 50 government fighters and 45 militia members.The fighting centered on Jableh, in Latakia Governorate, where Alawite militias carried out an organized joint attack on HTS government forces. Large numbers of government reinforcement have been sent to the area, but only some are involved in the fighting in and around Jableh. Other government forces attacked Alawite villages across the area, including al-Mukhtareyah in Homs Governorate, al-Haffah and al-Shir in Latakia Governorate, and smaller villages in the immediate vicinity of Jableh and Baniyas. Troops from the Defense Ministry and forces from the Interior Ministry reportedly rounded up Alawite men and carried out summary executions. 162 civilians were reported killed in those incidents on Friday. Mostly men were executed, but 13 women and 5 children were also said to have been slain.The death toll in al-Mukhtareyah alone from executions was at least 30. The government has not directly commented on the killings, but state media quoted an unnamed official attributing them to people “seeking revenge” for the violence against government.HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), who is also the de facto ruler of Syria since December, has issued a statement demanding that all Alawites surrender completely and disarm. He further declared that they had made an “unforgiveable mistake” in resisting security forces.Sharaa went on to vow to continue his effort to totally monopolize weapons ownership in the hands of the central government, declaring that “there will be no more unregulated weapons” in Syria.

Over 1,000 dead as Western-backed HTS regime in Syria escalates massacre of Alawites In Syria, the Western-backed Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime’s massacre of Alawites has escalated, with over 1,000 people killed. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that armed groups affiliated with the HTS regime have killed at least 745 civilians, including women and children, in the coastal region since Thursday. The brutality of the killings was demonstrated by the bodies being left in the streets as a warning. HTS jihadist terror against Alawites and other religious minorities is not new. As the World Socialist Web Site has reported, these attacks have been systematic since it took power in Syria in December, toppling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In late December, the aggression of the regime forces led to mass protests. According to BBC reports, the violence began when residents of Beit Ana village in Latakia refused to hand over a suspect to security forces on Thursday and quickly spread to other coastal cities in the northwest. Armed groups composed of former Syrian army soldiers launched coordinated attacks on government checkpoints, security convoys, and military positions. In response, the interim government forces launched a large-scale operation. By Saturday, SOHR was already reporting that at least 745 civilians, 148 insurgents, and 125 regime soldiers had been killed during the operation. Alawite men who served in the security forces during the Assad regime were executed by the new government forces, and many Alawite villages were looted and set on fire. Jenan Moussa, Al-Aan TV’s Middle East correspondent, shared footage on social media related to HTS militia’s attacks in the Latakia region on Friday. The videos show severe violence against individuals described by the Syrian regime as “remnants of the old regime,” with most victims wearing civilian clothes. Moussa’s footage revealed 29 men executed in the Al- Mokhtariyeh area and 11 in Al-Hafa. The videos included sectarian insults and slogans. In one, an HTS supporter referred to the victims as “dead animals.” Another showed a man in civilian clothes and slippers being shot at close range. SOHR is an anti-Assad organisation funded by the UK Foreign Office and other European powers. It’s director, Rami Abdulrahman, was imprisoned three times in Syria before fleeing to the UK. He stated that the widespread massacres in areas with dense Alawite populations, such as Jableh, Baniyas, and surrounding regions, are among the worst violence in the 14-year civil war. Abdulrahman emphasized, “This is not about being pro or against the former Assad regime. These are sectarian massacres that aim to expel the Alawite population from their homes.”

Report: US Encouraged Kurds To Sign Deal With HTS-Led Syrian Government - The US encouraged the Kurdish-led SDF to sign a deal with the new Syrian government led by the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Reutersreported on Wednesday.The leader of the SDF and Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani), signed a deal for the SDF to be merged into the Syrian government and military on Monday.The US-backed SDF controls northeast Syria, where about 2,000 US troops are deployed. The Trump administration has drawn up plans to withdraw from Syria, but a Pentagon official told Reuters that there was no sign that a pullout was imminent.The signing of the deal came after a weekend of massacres of mainly Alawite civilians by HTS forces in northwest Syria. The Reuters report said the killings “nudged” the SDF deal along.A senior regional intelligence source said the US played a very “crucial role” in getting the deal signed. The details of how exactly the SDF will merge with the HTS-led government still need to be worked out, but the agreement states that the Kurds will be able to have “constitutional rights.”Sources told Reuters that they expected the deal to ease Turkish pressure on the Syrian Kurds, although the SDF continues to battle with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the agreement in a statement on Tuesday.“The full implementation of the agreement reached yesterday in Syria will contribute to the country’s security and stability. The beneficiaries of this will be all our Syrian brothers and sisters,” Erdogan said.

Over Ten Thousand Syrian Alawites Flee Into Northern Lebanon After Massacres - There were hopes in Lebanon that the restoration of calm after the ouster of President Bashar Assad in Syria would mean that the large numbers of Syrian refugees living in Lebanon would return home. Some of that started to happen, but now a new influx of new refugees is reported in northern Lebanon.Amid massacres of Alawite civilians in northwest Syria’s Tartus and Latakia Governorates, many thousands of Alawites are fleeing into north Lebanon, which is where that nation’s own Alawite community lives.Villages in the northern Akkar District were the first to receive the new refugees. There are multiple Alawite villages in Akkar, and it’s the closest district, so it makes sense that’s the first place refugees would head. Thousands of people were reported in just a handful of villages. 18 villages in Akkar have reportedly opened up to the displaced, and more than ten thousand entered through Akkar overall. That’s a lot more people than they could reasonably hold, so many more are headed further south along the coast, to the major city of Tripoli.The Jabal Mohsen neighborhood of Tripoli has a large Alawite population, so it was another place for refugees to go. That neighborhood has seen its own share of sectarian clashes with the Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh throughout the decades though, so there is a risk that an influx of new Alawites displaced by a Sunni Islamist government in Syria will add new tensions to that area.Lebanon has absorbed well over a million refugees over the years, and in the summer of 2024 we were seeing growing anti-refugee sentiment in the country. That sentiment somewhat got sidelined during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon later in the year, though following the December regime change in Syria there were renewed calls for the Syrians to return home.The hope clearly was that the new Islamist-dominated Syrian government’s promises of unity would lead to renewed calm, and indeed there were many reports of Syrian returning home en masse from all over the world.Now, after well over a thousand people, mostly civilians have been killed in a little over two days in the northwest of Syria, there is simply a new round of refugees fleeing from the new government’s persecution. Lebanon, once again, is the most convenient option for many.

Secret Side Deal With US Gave Israel Free Hand to Keep Attacking Throughout Lebanon Ceasefire - Virtually from the moment the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal was signed in November, there have been reports that the US assured Israel they could both sign the ceasefire and be totally free to keep carrying out attacks on Hezbollah.Sources are now reporting that not only did that happen, but that the US and Israel actually signed a secret agreement with respect to the ceasefire the US was supposed to enforce. Lebanon was made aware of the secret deal, though they never signed or approved of it.This revelation now provides context to the in excess of 1,000 ceasefire violations Israel has committed since November 27, and why the US did absolutely nothing about it. Israel has continued near-daily attacks on southern Lebanon, and spent months after the ceasefire was agreed burning homes in southern villages.It was unlikely that Israel would’ve agreed to a ceasefire if it came with the presumption they could actually have to cease firing. Israel has presented each attack they carried out as an “imminent threat” posed by Hezbollah, even though Hezbollah has not carried out a single attack on Israel since the ceasefire was agreed upon.Lebanese MPs have been complaining about the secret agreement in recent days. The US National Security Council claimed the existence of the agreement was “not true,” but refused to answer any followup questions about why Israel keeps carrying out attacks without a US reaction.The secret agreement and the continued attacks cast a pall over ongoing US efforts to start mediation of border disputes between Israel and Lebanon. Israeli officials have suggested that the aim of the new talks about Israeli occupations of the Shebaa Farms, the ongoing military presence inside southern Lebanon, and other issues could lead to “normalization” with Lebanon.The Lebanese PM’s office insisted the talks are not in any way a path to normalization on their own. Rather, they say the new committee discussions on border issues are part of UN Resolution 1701, and that there are still no direct talks with Israel ongoing.In the meantime, the tensions remain palpable at the border, with Israeli airstrikes continuing. Lebanese troops reportedly removed barbed wire from the area of Barkat Risha, in the south of the Tyre District along the Israel border. The wire was left there by Israeli occupation forces.