oil prices at 14 month low; oil imports at a 24 week low; commercial crude inventories at a 52 week low; the largest SPR increase since June 2020; natural gas inventory increase smallest on record for end of August
US oil prices finished lower for the eighth time in nine weeks and at the lowest price in fourteen months, on demand concerns following weak economic data from the US and China...after falling 1.7% to $73.55 a barrel last week on OPEC+’s plan to increase output in October, and on a draw from US crude supplies that was less than was expected, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery extended last week's losses in overseas markets on Labor Day on expectations for higher OPEC+ production starting in October as signs of sluggish demand in China and the US raised concerns about future consumption growth, then sold off sharply in New York on Tuesday, after reports that a deal was imminent to resolve a dispute that had halted Libyan production and exports, and settled $3.21 lower at a 2024 low of $70.34 a barrel, as downbeat economic data from China and a weak reading on U.S. manufacturing fed worries about a slowdown in energy demand….oil prices continued to trend lower on Wednesday in follow through selling, as bearish sentiment seemed to be dominating the market's narrative, and settled down $1.14 at a nine month low of $69.20 a barrel as traders worried about future demand while crude producers offered mixed signals about supply increases….oil futures edged higher overnight and into Thursday morning, after data from the American Petroleum Institute released late Wednesday showed a larger-than-expected weekly decline in US crude stocks, but then began to slide despite the EIA’s report confirming a huge crude draw which sent US crude inventories to a 2024 low, and settled down 5 cents at another nine month low of $69.20 a barrel, as worries about demand in the U.S. and China and a likely rise in supplies out of Libya offset the big withdrawal from U.S. inventories and a delay to output increases by OPEC+ producers…oil price hovered around $68.60 during the Asian trading hours on Friday due to concerns over demand in both the US and China after manufacturing surveys in both countries indicated that factory activity had contracted, then edged higher ahead of the US jobs report on sketchy communication from OPEC and its allies on a deal to delay production normalization, but tumbled to settle $1.48 lower at a fourteen month low of $67.67 a barrel, as weaker than expected US jobs data exacerbated demand concerns and outweighed price support from an OPEC delay to supply increases, and finished 8.0% lower for the week, the biggest weekly drop in 11 months…
on the other hand, natural gas prices rose for the first time in 3 weeks on an unprecedentedly small storage injection for this time of year.…after falling 2.4% to $2.127 per mmBTU last week on a shift to milder temperature forecasts, the price of the contract for natural gas for October delivery mounted a steady ascent after initial weakness early Tuesday, as steady LNG exports, a decline in production, and higher spot gas prices all provided support, and settled 7.6 cents higher at $2.20 per mmBTU, despite bearish forecasts for less hot weather, on a decline in output and an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals…that front month natural gas contract opened 5 cent higher on Wednesday, but then moved sharply lower as fundamentals became unsupportive, and settled down 5.8 cents at $2.145 per mmBTU on bearish forecasts for less demand this week than had been expected, and an oversupply of fuel still left in storage after last years mild winter….natural gas prices opened 5 cents higher again on Thursday, but this time jumped to the $2.275 level right after a bullish storage report hit the wire, and finished the session 10.9 cents higher at $2.254 per mmBTU on the smaller-than-expected storage build, rising LNG feedgas demand, and a continued decline in output so far this month….natural gas prices drifted between modest gains and losses most of Friday, as weaker weather-related demand butted-up against vestiges of support from Thursday’s extremely bullish storage print, and settled 2.1 cents higher at an eight week high of $2.275 per mmBTU amid falling production estimates and searing summer temperatures across stretches of the South, and thus finished 7.0% higher for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending August 30th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 13 billion cubic feet to 3,347 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the smallest increase on record for the last week of August, which left our natural gas supplies 208 billion cubic feet, or 6.6% above the 3,139 billion cubic feet that were in storage on August 30th of last year, and 323 billion cubic feet, or 10.7% more than the five-year average of 3,024 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 30th of August over the most recent five years…the 13 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was well below the 27 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, and also much less than the 33 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding last in August of 2023, and far less the average 51 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late summer week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 30th indicated that due to a big decrease in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the ninth time in ten weeks, and for the 22nd time in the past 38 weeks, despite an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 768,000 barrels per day to a 24 week low of 5,792,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 92,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 85,000 barrels per day to 3,756,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,036,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending August 30th, 853,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 515,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,300,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,851,000 barrels per day during the August 30th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,900,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 30th, an average of 36,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 730,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending August 30th averaged a rounded 319,000 barrels per day fewer than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +319,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” demand, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)
This week’s net average 730,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 982,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 252,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the thirty-ninth SPR increase in the past forty-six weeks and the largest SPR increase since June 2020, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the prior 39 months… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,322,000 barrels per day last week, which was 8.0% less than the 6,870,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,300,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,900,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was unchanged at 400,000 barrels per day, and added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 37.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 93.3% of their capacity while processing those 16,900,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 30th, unchanged from their 93.3% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still a bit below normal utilization for late-summer… the 16,900,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.7% more than the 16,623,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending September 1st of 2023, but 2.8% less than the 17,381,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending August 30th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic normal 94.8% for late August…
With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 136,000 barrels per day to 9,748,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 30th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 156,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 0.4% less than the 9,788,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending September 1st of last year, and was 5.1% less than the gasoline production of 10,272,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending August 30th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 167,000 barrels per day to 5,169,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 110,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After nineteen production increases in the past twenty-seven weeks, our distillates output was 3.0% more than the 5,017,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 1st of 2023, and a bit more than the 5,154,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending August 30th, 2019…
With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the 11th time in thirty-one weeks, increasing by 848,000 barrels to 219,242,000 barrels during the week ending August 30th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,203,000 barrels to a 39 week low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 8,938,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 212,000 barrels per day to 655,000 barrels per day, and our exports of gasoline rose by 48,000 barrels per day to 865,000 barrels per day.…Even after twenty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-one weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.1% above last September 1st's gasoline inventories of 214,746,000 barrels, but were also still about 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 19th time in thirty-three weeks, decreasing by 371,000 barrels to 122,715,000 barrels over the week ending August 30th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 275,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 175,000 barrels per day to 3,997,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 46,000 barrels per day to 1,407,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 38,000 barrels per day to 182,000 barrels per day ...Even after 19 inventory withdrawals over the past 33 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.5% above the 118,602,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 1st of 2023, but they are still about 10% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the big drop in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 16th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time in the past year, decreasing by 6,873,000 barrels over the week, from 425,183,000 barrels on August 23rd to a 52 week low of 418,310,000 barrels on August 30th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 846,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still more than 25% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the end of August over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this August 30th were 0.4% more than the 416,637,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on September 1st of 2023, but 2.1% less than the 427,191,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 2nd of 2022, and 1.7% more than the 423,867,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on August 27th of 2021…
This Week’s Rig Count
In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (August 30th) and this week’s (September 6th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s August 30th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 8th of September, 2023…
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EOG Resources Eyes Expansion in Ohio's Utica Shale Activity - EOG Resources, Inc. EOG, a leading Houston, TX-based shale producer, is set to significantly expand its activities in the Utica shale play in Ohio, per a Reuters report. Speaking at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York, chief operating officer Jeff Leitzell announced that the company has doubled its activity in Utica over the past year, marking a significant growth in its presence in the region. EOG Resources now operates on 445,000 acres, with an average entry cost of approximately $600 per acre. Leitzell highlighted the strategic significance of the Utica shale for EOG's future growth, noting its potential to become a major asset in the company's portfolio. He indicated that if the company's current success in the region continues, EOG Resources plans to increase its capital investments there. This expansion reflects the company’s confidence in the Utica play as a long-term contributor to its oil and gas production. In addition to its Ohio operations, EOG Resources is making significant strides in the development of its Dorado natural gas play in the Eagle Ford region of southeast Texas. The company has been navigating a period of record-low natural gas prices, choosing to delay several completions until the second half of the year. According to Leitzell, this approach allows EOG to better manage market fluctuations while maintaining profitability. EOG Resources anticipates extended periods of low gas prices with occasional short-term spikes. To navigate these fluctuations and maintain profitability, the company plans to defer completions and allocate resources strategically to maximize returns despite market volatility. With a clear focus on growing its operations in Ohio and Texas, EOG Resources is positioning itself to capitalize on evolving market dynamics, reinforcing its long-term strength in the U.S. shale industry.
EOG to ramp up activity in Utica shale play in Ohio, company says (Reuters) - Houston-based shale producer EOG Resources expects to ramp up operations in the Utica shale play in Ohio, Chief Operating Officer Jeff Leitzell told attendees at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York on Tuesday. EOG Resources has doubled its activity in the Utica year-on-year, operating on 445,000 acres with an average entry cost of around $600 per acre, Leitzell said. "The Utica absolutely has the opportunity to be a foundational play," Leitzell said. "If we continue to have the success that we expect to, you can expect us to go ahead now and put more capital there." EOG is also developing its Dorado natural gas play in the Eagle Ford in southeast Texas. The company has managed record low gas prices in part by deferring a handful of completions to the second half of the year. "There's going to be long periods of low pricing with short duration periods of high pricing, and you've got to be able to make returns and margins all the way through those periods on the gas side," Leitzell said.
EOG set to add to Ohio Utica spending | Oil & Gas Journal - EOG Resources Inc’s budding Ohio Utica shale operation is—barring an ugly surprise in the coming months—in line to get more capital in 2025, one of the company’s top executives told an investor gathering Sept. 3. Speaking to the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference, chief operating officer Jeff Leitzell said Houston-based EOG is “seeing outstanding results both through delineation and with our spacing tests in all three areas” of its Utica holdings, which tally 445,000 net acres in the east of the Buckeye State. The company’s early work has focused on about 225,000 net acres that are producing volatile oil. “Everything so far has basically met type curve or exceeded type curve,” Leitzell said. “On that 225,000 acres, we’re just about there […] Everything kind of came in the way we want without any misses.” If development work continues to progress as it has, Leitzell added, EOG’s Utica teams will get more funding in 2025 to add to this year’s 20 net wells, a figure more than triple 2023’s total. And while he didn’t specify dollar details relative to EOG’s total 2024 capex budget of $6.2 billion, it appears likely that Ohio spending will soon be a material part of the company’s outlays. “It absolutely has the opportunity to be a foundational play” on a level with EOG’s core Delaware basin and Eagle Ford assets, Leitzell said. “And it’s on the pathway to be there.” Leitzell’s bullish comments echo those of EOG leaders on the company’s second-quarter earnings call roughly a month ago. (OGJ Online, Aug. 2, 2024) At the time, chief executive officer Ezra Yacob and others praised the consistent production from the company’s delineation work in the Utica and noted its potential to be cost-competitive with parts of the Permian basin. At the Barclays gathering, Leitzell also placed EOG’s Utica work inside its broader strategy, specifically its focus on incrementally amassing acreage to develop rather than following other exploration and production companies into the market for big M&A. Typically, he said, once the EOG team looks at whether the acreage is operated or not, the various contracts that come with a potential target, and the depletion rates at fields in question, it sees more potential value in an organic growth model. “The goal is for it not just to be financially accretive but also accretive on a portfolio level,” Leitzell said. “So when we look at it all, we compare it to our exploration opportunities and we just see a lot more value right now in our exploration opportunities.”
Conservancy district curtails water sales from Atwood Lake to energy company because of drought conditions -- · Drought conditions have lowered the level of the lake from its normal summer pool level by a foot and a half.‒ Due to significant drought conditions in much of Ohio and the Tuscarawas Valley, the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District is curtailing water sales from Atwood Lake to Encino Energy for oil and gas well operations. As of Wednesday, the conservancy district is reducing water sales to Encino by 75% because Atwood Lake is a foot and a half below its normal summer pool, according to Craig Butler, MWCD executive director. The MWCD had an agreement to sell the company a maximum of 2 million gallons a day from Atwood for a couple of pad operations. Until lake levels stabilize, that number has been reduce to 500,000 gallons per day. Atwood has a storage capacity of 7 billion gallons. "We think it's the right thing to do," he said. The conservancy district receives significant revenue from bonuses and royalties from oil and gas wells around the district. The MWCD has about 100 wells on its property, generating around $200 million in revenue in the past decade or so.
Cecil Twp Proposes Ban on New Shale Drilling via 2500-Ft Setback -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Board of Supervisors for Cecil Township in Washington County, PA, has caved to pressure from radical leftists and is floating a plan to effectively ban all new shale drilling in the township by increasing setbacks from "protected structures" from 500 feet to 2,500 feet (a half a mile!).The supervisors will hold a special meeting tonight to discuss this lunacy. We strongly recommend you attend and voice your opposition.
Pennsylvania Dropped 3 Rigs Last Week, Lowest Count in 2.5 Years - Marcellus Drilling News - The big news (for us) with the weekly Baker Hughes rig count is that last week, Pennsylvania laid down its use of three active drilling rigs, resulting in the lowest rig count in the state in 2 1/2 years. PA now operates 18 active rigs, down from 21 the week prior. The last time PA operated only 18 rigs was, according to our records, in November 2021. Fortunately, West Virginia picked up one of those rigs and improved its count from five to six. Ohio remained the same with nine active rigs. So, the Marcellus/Utica, in total, went from 35 active rigs two weeks ago to 33 active rigs last week. The national rig count (for both oil and gas rigs) dropped by two, now with 583 active rigs.
Biden-Harris Bribe Pa. with Check for $76 Million to Plug Old Wells -- What’s your price, Pennsylvania oil and gas industry? Are you willing to sell yourselves to the Democrats for $152 million (revised down to $114 million) in bribes? How about if Biden-Harris sweetens the pot and rushes a check for $76 million to the state, as they did yesterday? Can you not see through this sleazy attempt to unduly influence the election? In August, Biden-Harris promised (but hasn’t yet delivered a dime of) up to $152 million in “Phase 2” federal money, i.e., your taxpayer dollars, to help plug old conventional oil and gas wells in the Keystone State (see Convenient Timing: Biden-Harris Promise Pa. Another $152 Million). Yesterday, the administration said a check is in the mail for $76 million for “Phase 1” of the same thing. It is grotesquely CORRUPT. It is vote-buying.
Pennsylvania Drillers Defeat Landowner Lawsuit After 9 Years - In 2015, a group of nearly 60 landowners in northeastern Pennsylvania who had leased their land for fracking filed a lawsuit against Chesapeake Energy, Anadarko, Statoil (now Equinor), Mitsui E&P, and Access Midstream (later bought by Williams), alleging the companies had improperly deducted post-production costs (e.g., gas gathering and transportation expenses) from royalties owed to the landowners in breach of their respective leases. The lawsuit also alleged collusion and conspiracy to defraud the landowners. The lawsuit was on hold for many years while other lawsuits played out. Earlier this year, a federal court in Scranton unpaused this lawsuit, and yesterday, the judge ruled, tossing out the landowners’ claims.
UGI Seeks to Store LNG in Trailers in Scranton Suburb During Winter --Marcellus Drilling News --UGI, a diversified energy company with midstream (pipeline) operations in the Marcellus and one of PA’s largest utility companies, wants to store trailers of LNG in the parking lot of a storage facility near Scranton, PA, and is seeking a zoning variance to do so. UGI needs extra supplies of natural gas to inject into its utility system during peak periods in the winter months. The company says it will be a temporary situation.
32 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 26 – Sep 1 -- For the week of Aug. 26 – Sept. 1, a total of 32 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica, nearly matching the previous week's 34. It's nice to see the numbers returning to higher levels. The Keystone State (PA) had 18 new permits. PA’s top recipient was EQT (and its subsidiary Rice Drilling), with ten permits in Greene County. Seneca Resources was second, with five new permits issued in Lycoming County. Olympus Energy received three permits in Westmoreland County. Antero Resources | Carroll County | Encino Energy | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Lycoming County | Marshall County | Ohio County | Olympus/Huntley & Huntley | Seneca Resources | Southwestern Energy | Westmoreland County | Wetzel County
DC Court Vacates LNG Approval at Port of Brownsville --The D.C. Circuit Court on Tuesday ruled against approval of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal and related pipeline projects at the Port of Brownsville, effectively canceling prior approval of three such projects by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.The Sierra Club, in announcing the ruling, said this is the first time a court has vacated FERC approval of an LNG terminal.FERC approved Rio Grande LNG, Texas LNG and the Rio Bravo Pipeline “despite widespread concerns for the harm the projects would cause to the surrounding communities and the climate.”A lawsuit was filed against FERC by the Sierra Club, the city of Port Isabel, Vecinos para el Bienestar de la Comunidad Costera and the Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe of Texas, a Floreville-based nonprofit organization, claiming that FERC failed to “adequately consider the environmental justice impacts and greenhouse gas emissions of the three projects, as required by the National Environmental Policy Act and the Natural Gas Act.“The D.C. court upheld the petitioners’ arguments, vacating FERC’s approvals, meaning the agency now has to reconsider the impacts of the three projects. This will require a new draft supplemental Environmental Impact Statements and public comment period before FERC decides whether to issue new project permits.The court’s ruling follows two other rulings in July that “call into question the adequacy of FERC reviews,” according to the Sierra Club, which noted that last week the D.C. Circuit Court ruled FERC had failed to consider greenhouse gas emissions as well as market need for expansion of Real Energy Access, a Williams company pipeline project in the Northeast.Also last month, the same court ruled that FERC failed to adequately assess Commonwealth LNG’s air pollution impacts and greenhouse gas emissions, the Sierra Club said, adding that “it is unacceptable for FERC to conduct insufficient environmental justice analysis and to decline to make determinations on the significance of climate-warming emissions.”
US approves gas exports from New Fortress Energy -- The Biden administration on Tuesday granted a gas export terminal the authority to ship fuel abroad after a court blocked its efforts to delay such permissions. The Energy Department approved shipments from a New Fortress Energy facility in Mexico to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free-trade agreement.The gas in question is originally sourced from the U.S.; it then will be transported to Mexico and later to other countries.The administration announced earlier this year that it would pause new approvals for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports like the one it approved on Tuesday, but that pause was halted in court in July. Nevertheless, environmental advocates expressed disappointment in the administration, as some hoped it simply wouldn’t approve major gas projects even without a formal pause in place. “The Department of Energy’s decision to approve the New Fortress LNG Terminal is deeply concerning,” said Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. program manager at advocacy group Oil Change International, in a written statement. “By doing so, it has broken its own commitment to pause LNG export authorizations— a commitment made out of recognition that its current guidance doesn’t adequately consider the risks LNG exports pose to the climate, environment, and public health and safety,” Rosenbluth said. The pause on new LNG export approvals was widely seen as an overture toward the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. And the new export approval comes as Vice President Harris, in her presidential campaign, hasshifted toward the center on other issues, including fracking. A spokesperson for the Energy Department noted that the facility is already constructed and operational. The official added that it does not increase “the total volume of LNG” that the facility can export, but does increase exports to countries without U.S. free trade agreements by about 3 percent. The department’s pause announced earlier this year came in conjunction with a review of its approval practices, including the extent to which factors like climate change are considered. The spokesperson said that the department is continuing to update how it evaluates these projects moving forward. Under the new approval issued on Monday, New Fortress Energy will be allowed to export about 1.4 million tonnes per year of gas for five years.
Venture Global seeks OK to unload first LNG commissioning cargo at Louisiana plant - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Venture Global LNG sought authorization on Thursday from U.S. energy regulators by Aug. 30 to unload the first LNG commissioning cargo at the Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana. About a week ago, a tanker (the Qogir) full of LNG docked at Plaquemines, according to Venture Global and data from financial firm LSEG. The tanker came from Norway. Energy analysts and traders said Venture Global would use that LNG to cool down parts of the Plaquemines facility as part of the plant's testing and commissioning process. Earlier in the week, Venture Global said the Qogir docked at Plaquemines but did not provide other information. On Thursday, Venture Global filed with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for authorization no later than Aug. 30 to unload the first LNG commissioning cargo on or after Aug. 30. LNG plants under construction, like Plaquemines, use super-cooled fuel to test and cool equipment in preparation for startup. In addition to the Qogir, another LNG vessel, the Venture Gator, which was not fully loaded with LNG, according to data from LSEG, was anchored in the Mississippi River near Plaquemines. Analysts said it was likely the vessel, which was listed as available for orders, would go to Plaquemines. Plaquemines started pulling in small amounts of natural gas from U.S. pipelines in late June, analysts have said the plant could start turning gas into small amounts of LNG in test mode in coming months. Venture Global has said that building the two phases at Plaquemines would entail an investment of about $21 B. Analysts have said they expect Venture Global to complete work on the first 1.8-Bft3d phase of Plaquemines from 2024 to 2026 and the second 1.2- Bft3d phase from 2025 to 2026. The U.S. is already the world's biggest LNG exporter with seven export plants able to turn about 13.8 Bft3d of gas into about 104.6 metric MMtpy of LNG. One Bft3 is enough gas to supply about 5 MM U.S. homes for a day.
NGPL Expansion Could Move Ahead Without Delfin as Delays Continue for LNG Project -Delfin LNG may not be able to accept natural gas supplies on a pipeline expansion that’s expected to enter service in July 2026 as the offshore export project continues working through delays, a Kinder Morgan Inc. subsidiary told federal regulators. Delfin warned Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America LLC (NGPL) that it might not be able to adhere to the schedule outlined in its long-term transportation agreement for 80 MMcf/d on the Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project, NGPL said in a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Delfin has asked the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for an extension to place its first phase online in June 2029. The company cited energy market impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic and global conflicts that made it impossible to reach previous deadlines under its permits.
Harris defends fracking reversal --Vice President Harris in an interview Thursday addressed her reversal on a fracking ban, which she supported during the 2020 Democratic primary but has since come out against. “As vice president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking,” Harris told CNN’s Dana Bash in a joint interview with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).Bash followed up by citing Harris’s comments at a 2019 town hall in which she said “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” and asked why she had since changed her position.“My values have not changed. I believe it is very important that we take seriously what we must do to guard against what is a clear crisis in terms of the climate. And to do that, we can do what we have accomplished thus far,” Harris answered.She went on to cite the recent boom in renewable energy jobs in the U.S., much of it in the wake of the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, for which she cast the tiebreaking Senate vote.“That tells me, from my experience as vice president, we can do it without banning fracking,” she said. “What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking.”Fracking, the process of extracting natural gas from bedrock by injecting pressurizing fluids, is a major employer in the southwest of Pennsylvania, which is likely to be a pivotal state in the November election.
NFE’s Altamira LNG Granted First Natural Gas Export Permit Since Biden Administration Paused Approvals --The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is allowing New Fortress Energy Inc. to export up to 1.4 million metric tons/year of LNG to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries from its recently commissioned Fast LNG facility in Mexico, marking the first non-FTA permit granted this year. Graph of Commercially Advanced North American LNG Projects impacted by DOE Review. In an order issued over the U.S. Labor Day weekend, DOE staff noted ongoing concerns about U.S. liquefied natural gas development, including an ongoing study into the impacts of gas exports, but ultimately concluded Fast LNG’s shipments to the international market were in the public interest. “DOE is continuing to monitor market developments closely as the impact of successive authorizations of LNG exports and re-exports unfolds,” agency staff wrote in the order. “DOE also acknowledges that proposals to re-export U.S.-sourced natural gas in the form of LNG from Mexico or Canada to non-FTA countries raise public interest considerations that are not present for domestic exports of LNG.”
Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - The Southern Environmental Law Center and the Natural Resources Defense Council have filed a court challenge against FERC’s authorization of the proposed CP2 LNG export project in Cameron Parish, LA. The groups filed the petition for review in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Circuit) on behalf of local fishermen and landowners. They allege the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s June approval of the 20 million metric tons/year liquefied natural gas project violates the Natural Gas Act and “illustrates FERC’s failure” to review projects in the public interest. The DC Circuit vacated FERC authorizations for the Rio Grande and Texas LNG projects after challenges from other environmental groups.
EOG’s Gassy Dorado Play in South Texas Opening Doors for Multi-Linked LNG Export Pricing, Says COO --Houston-based EOG Resources Inc. has for years remained a top dog among Lower 48 explorers, with a cache of gassy and oily targets from which to pick and choose. The diversified portfolio has provided assurance when prices are high or low, a top executive said. COO Jeffrey R. Leitzell discussed the independent’s marketing strategy Tuesday at the Barclays 38th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference. The multi-basin explorer has accumulated assets in the Anadarko, Appalachia, Denver-Julesburg, Permian, Powder River and Williston basins, and in the Barnett, Eagle Ford and Utica shales. It also has gas-heavy assets offshore Trinidad and Tobago.'
Texas Waha Hub Gas Prices Plunge to Record Lows, Hit Negative Territory (Reuters) — Natural gas prices in the Permian shale basin in West Texas have turned negative a record number of times in 2024, including an all-time low on Aug. 30, as pipeline and other constraints trap gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. Spot gas prices for Friday at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas fell by about 120% to a record low of minus $4.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). That was the 21st time Waha prices averaged below zero in August and was lower than the prior record low of minus $4.76 on Aug. 9. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023. So far in 2024, Waha prices have averaged below zero 32 times. Analysts have said that is a sure sign the region needs more gas pipes, which prompted a coalition of energy firms including privately-held WhiteWater to move forward in July with the Blackcomb pipeline. Other energy firms, including Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer, have also proposed new projects. There is, however, only one big gas project under construction in Texas that could relieve the severe pipeline constraints in the Permian region this year, the Matterhorn Express Pipeline. In the past, Matterhorn Express projected the 490-mile (789-kilometer) pipe capable of moving up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, could enter service in the third quarter of 2024, but most analysts now expect the project to start in the fourth quarter. Matterhorn Express is a joint venture between units of WhiteWater, EnLink Midstream, Devon Energy and MPLX, according to WhiteWater's website.
US natgas prices climb 4% to 2-week high on lower output, higher LNG feedgas (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a two-week high on Tuesday after the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend on a decline in output and increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals. That price increase came despite bearish forecasts for less hot weather than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.6 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $2.203 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Aug. 19. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 11 before turning warmer than normal from Sept 12-18. Energy traders, however, noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would only average around 75 degrees F (23.9 degrees Celsius), down from an average of 79 F (26.1 C) in mid-August. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 102.8 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. In Mexico, New Fortress Energy's NFE.O Fast LNG export plant in Altamira received authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy to export LNG to non-free trade agreement countries. That should allow the plant, which turns U.S. gas into LNG, to increase exports. Gas prices were trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
US natural gas prices fall 3% on forecasts for less demand, ample stockpiles (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Wednesday on bearish forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected. Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year is the oversupply of fuel left in storage after a mild winter. There was still about 12% more gas in storage than normal, even though injections have been smaller than usual in 15 of the last 16 weeks after low prices early in the year prompted several producers to cut output. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.8 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.145 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest price since Aug. 19. The market has seen a drop in output so far this month and forecasts for warmer weather next week than previously expected, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to fall to an all-time low and average in negative territory for a record 33rd time this year. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023. In the Atlantic basin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there was a 30% chance that atropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could strengthen into a cyclone as it move into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week.
US natgas prices jump 5% to 7-week high on small storage build, rising LNG feedgas (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a seven-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a continued decline in output so far this month. That price spike came despite forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 13 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 30. That was well below the 27-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 33 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 51 bcf for this time of year. Even though last week's build was smaller than normal for the 16th time in 17 weeks, there was still about 11% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. Analysts have said that oversupply of gas left in storage after a mild winter has helped keep prices depressed all year, prompting several producers to cut output. Those output cuts were the reason for the smaller than normal weekly builds seen in recent months. Spot gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL fell to a 25-year low earlier this year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.9 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $2.254 per million British thermal units, their highest close since July 12. In the spot market, a heat wave in the U.S. West caused power prices to soar over 400% to their highest levels since August 2023 to around $160 per megawatt hour (MWh) at the Palo Verde hub EL-PK-PLVD-SNL in Arizona and $150 at South Path 15 (SP-15) EL-PK-SP15-SNL in Southern California as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners. In Texas, the Matterhorn gas pipeline was moving small amounts of gas from the Permian basin in West Texas toward the Gulf Coast, which should relieve the negative prices in the Waha market. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a three-month high of 13.3 bcfd on Thursday. Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant's history and notices to customers.
US natural gas prices rise 1% to 8-week high on higher LNG feedgas, lower output - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to an eight-week high on Friday as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rises and producers continue to curtail output. That small price gain occurred despite bearish forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. There is still about 10% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though injections have been smaller than usual in 16 of the last 17 weeks. Analysts said those small builds happened mostly because several producers cut output this year after spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark fell to a 25-year low in the spring and have remained relatively low since. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 12 for a second day in a row. For the week, the front-month was up about 7% after gaining about 5% last week. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.1 bcfd over the last six days to a preliminary 11-week low of 101.7 bcfd on Friday. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary data was often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 9 before turning warmer than normal in the Sept. 10-21 period. Energy traders, however, noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would only average around 74 degrees Fahrenheit (23.3 degrees Celsius), down from an average of 79 F (26 C) in mid-August. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 102.5 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd for the next two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a three-month high of 13.4 bcfd on Friday.29dk2902l Gas prices were trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
‘Molecule-Agnostic’ Equipment Opening Doors Beyond Natural Gas, Says Baker Hughes CEO -Baker Hughes Co. in only a few years has navigated a brief merger with General Electric, an energy-demand-crushing pandemic and an exit from Russia, but it continues to deliver solid results. The secret, said CEO Lorenzo Simonelli, is the oilfield service company’s “differentiated” technology strategy. Pie chart showing 2023 industrial and energy technology revenue. The CEO offered his “roller coaster perspective” on Wednesday at the Barclays 38th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference. Simonelli took the helm in 2017, shortly after a blockbuster tie-up with General Electric. The deal had soured by 2018, though, and in 2019, it was becoming a standalone company once again.
It's Spreading: America's Top Oil Field Terrorized By Armed Venezuelan Gangs --It's only going to get worse from here, as the Biden-Harris administration's disastrous open border policies have now come to a 'neighborhood near you' (for some of you). In the past week, we saw armed Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua members terrorize the northern Denver suburb of Aurora and other sanctuary cities run by far-left Democrats. New concerns out Thursday afternoon indicate critical infrastructure is now under threat from migrant cartel members. According to Libs of TikTok, a Texas-based oil/gas company issued a memo to employees informing them that police and the FBI havewarned armed Cuba and Venezuela migrant gangs are committing thefts in the Permian Basin (America's highest producing oil field). Here's the memo:Industry peers and law enforcement in West Texas (WTX) are aware of a recent increase in organized criminal activity inclusive of violent crimes, gang activity and oil field thefts in and around WTX operational areas. Specifically, regional law enforcement and the FBI advised that gang members emanating from Cuba and Venezuela are organizing and working in concert to commit thefts within the Permian Basin. These individuals and groups are armed, violent in nature and will not hesitate to use force.Crimes associated with these groups include the theft of oil, diesel fuel, copper wire, and catalyst elements. Recent incidents have also included two assaults by water haulers who were attempting to steal oil from WTX oilfield sites. After the thieves were observed by witnesses who drove up to investigate, the thieves attempted to use their vehicles to run the witnesses off the road. In another incident, a thief, acting as a spotter and following a water hauler who had stolen oil, also attempted to run a witness off the road. There have been numerous reports of second vehicles acting as spotters for water haulers committing oil thefts.An industry peer provided the below snapshot of a video surveillance of an armed thief checking out an area before stealing diesel from the location We highlighted earlier this week that law-abiding Americans must be made well aware of the cities, counties, and states that have laws, ordinances, and policies that obstruct immigration enforcement and shield illegal alien criminals from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This is because these areas are increasingly becoming dangerous, with migrant criminals running amok. Aurora is a prime example. It will not matter who wins the election. The flood of illegals have a purpose in the overall plan that has been unfolding. Chaos as far and wide as possible. Massive spread across the nation! https://t.co/qFhElt4NtW
Billionaire Kelcy Warren invests in pipelines — and Trump - Kelcy Warren is good at getting a return on his investments. The billionaire pipeline mogul goes big and moves fast — even if it sometimes looks bad from the outside.That’s how his company, Energy Transfer, built the Dakota Access oil pipeline in spite of bitter tribal protests. And that’s how the company made $2.4 billion from buying and selling natural gas during the deadly Texas blackouts in 2021.This year, he’s invested $5 million in the campaign to elect former President Donald Trump to another term in the White House. The potential return on investment is high.A Department of Energy under a second Trump administration could put Energy Transfer’s natural gas export project in Louisiana back on track. If he retakes power, the former Republican president could end talk of “pausing” federal export permits and dial back President Joe Biden’s heightened scrutiny of the types of mergers and acquisitions Warren uses to expand his company. A second Trump term could also put to rest the continued threats to Dakota Access.“He is a very wealthy guy, and he owns a critical element of U.S. energy infrastructure,” said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University just outside Dallas. “The way he protects it, from his perspective, is to be more of an old-style Republican economic conservative in which he protects his business from over regulation and taxation by face-to-face opportunities to lobby on behalf of his interests.”The oil and gas industry has given Trump more money than all but three other industries, according to the campaign finance tracking site OpenSecrets.org. And Warren is a top giver from the industry, tied with Midland oilman Tim Dunn for first place among oil moguls.The petrodollars oil tycoons are shoveling into Trump’s campaign demonstrate how closely the GOP nominee has aligned himself with an industry respected for its job creation and clout in global energy markets and vilified for its environmental record and its economic power over American consumers.And the prospect of Vice President Kamala Harris winning the White House is even more frightening to many oil and gas executives than was four more years of Biden. Warren himself has said he’s “scared to death” when politicians talk about banning fracking, which is exactly what Harris did during her short-lived campaign for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. She has since walked that back but hasn’t made clear how she might be different than Biden on energy issues.“There is a strong sense that Biden, and especially Harris, represent an existential threat to the status quo for the oil and natural gas industry,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.The $5 million Warren sent to Trump ties him with Dunn for seventh place on the list of top Trump donors compiled by OpenSecrets. The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.According to an analysis of contributions done by OpenSecrets for POLITICO’s E&E News, Warren and his wife, Amy, have contributed nearly $28 million to federal candidates and nearly $7 million to Texas candidates since the end of 2010, almost all of it to Republicans.
North American LNG capacity to more than double by 2028 | Gas Processing & LNG - North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcfd in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. During this time, we expect developers in Mexico and Canada to place their first LNG export terminals into service and in the United States to add to existing LNG capacity. By the end of 2028, we estimate LNG export capacity will grow by 0.8 Bcfd in Mexico, 2.5 Bcfd in Canada, and 9.7 Bcfd in the United States from a total of 10 new projects that are currently under construction in the three countries.
- Mexico: Developers are currently constructing two projects with a combined LNG export capacity of 0.6 Bcf/d—Fast LNG Altamira offshore on Mexico's east coast and Energía Costa Azul on Mexico's west coast.
- Fast LNG Altamira consists of two Floating LNG production units (FLNG), each with a capacity to liquefy up to 0.199 Bcfd of natural gas, located off the coast of Altamira, in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Natural gas from the United States delivered via the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline will supply these units. The first LNG cargo from this facility was shipped in August 2024.
- The Energia Costa Azul LNG export terminal (0.4 Bcf/d export capacity) is located at the site of the existing LNG regasification (import) terminal in Baja California in western Mexico. Developers proposed an expansion of this project in Phase 2 by 1.6 Bcf/d. This project will be supplied with natural gas from the Permian Basin in the United States.
- Canada: Currently, three LNG export projects with a combined capacity of 2.5 Bcfd are under construction in British Columbia on Canada’s west coast. Developers of LNG Canada (1.8 Bcfd export capacity) plan to start LNG exports from Train 1 in the summer of 2025. Woodfibre LNG (export capacity 0.3 Bcfd) targets the startup of LNG exports in 2027. Cedar LNG—an FLNG project with capacity to liquefy up to 0.4 Bcfd—made a final investment decision in June 2024 and expects to start LNG exports in 2028. These projects will be supplied with natural gas from western Canada. In addition, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has authorized four LNG export projects, including an expansion of LNG Canada, with a combined proposed LNG export capacity of 4.1 Bcfd.
- United States: Five LNG export projects are currently under construction with a combined export capacity of 9.7 Bcfd—Plaquemines (Phase I and Phase II), Corpus Christi Stage III, Golden Pass, Rio Grande (Phase I), and Port Arthur (Phase I). Developers expect to produce the first LNG from Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage III and ship first cargoes from these projects by the end of 2024.
U.S. LNG export dominance tested as Europe's demand wilts - The United States has remained the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) so far in 2024, but a steep drop in selling prices and a sharp swing in export volumes to key markets is likely testing exporter appetite to stay on top. The U.S. shipped a record 56.9 metric MMt of LNG during the first eight months of 2024, according to Kpler. That surpassed the 54.3 MMt from Australia and 53.7 MMt from Qatar during that period, and marks only the second straight year that U.S. exporters have topped global export rankings. However, a more than 25% drop in average LNG export prices during the first half of 2024 from the first half of 2023 dealt a heavy blow to export revenues, which dropped by $4 B from the opening half of 2023 to $13.2 B, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows. That was the lowest half-year revenue total since the first half of 2021, and marks a more than $12-B fall from the second half of 2022 when U.S. export earnings from LNG peaked. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes, prices and revenues since 2010. The challenge of sharply falling revenues was compounded by a sharp reconfiguration in export volumes to key markets, which saw shipments to relatively close markets in Europe drop by more than 20% while sales to more distant Asia rose by over 40%. Continued muted LNG demand in Europe and further growth in Asia may test the resolve of U.S. exporters to remain the world's largest LNG sellers, as several far-flung Asian markets can be more cheaply supplied by other sellers. Europe's sudden jump in demand for LNG since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 snarled natural gas pipeline flows to the region has been the main catalyst behind the ascendancy of the U.S. LNG export industry. From 2018 through 2021, U.S. LNG exports to Europe averaged around 15 MMtpy, according to Kpler, but jumped to around 55 MMtpy in 2022 and 2023 as Europe's power firms scrambled to replace lost Russian gas by whatever means necessary. U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by continent since 2018. U.S. exporters were happy to help fill the gas gap, lifting total export volumes by 95% from 2019's total by the end of 2022. Europe's share of the total U.S. LNG traffic also roughly doubled, from around 37% from 2019–2021 to nearly 70% in 2022. A roughly 44% drop in shipments to Asia during 2022 from the year before also allowed U.S. LNG sellers to prioritize Europe over all other customers, and capitalize on the unprecedented supply shock that roiled global gas markets during that period. U.S. LNG shipments to Europe scaled even greater heights in 2023, but the tone has changed in 2024, with shipments from January through August dropping by 22% from the same months in 2023. A key driver behind that slowdown has been a sharp climb in European power generation from renewable energy sources, which remain a priority for Europe's power firms going forward. Solar and wind power's share of electricity generation in Europe jumped from around 16.4% in 2022 to 20.5% so far in 2024, according to Ember. To make way for the higher renewables generation, fossil fuel generation's share dropped from around 44.6% in 2022 to 36.6% so far this year. Coal-fired power has been the main fossil fuel source that has been cut in Europe, but natural gas generation's share has also declined, from around 26% in 2022 to 22% so far this year. Lower gas reliance across Europe is bad news for U.S. LNG exporters. To make up for lower sales into Europe, U.S. exporters may attempt to grow share in Asia, which is a clear bright spot for global gas sellers. However, other major exporters including Qatar and Australia boast far lower shipping distances to key Asian markets, on top of competitive gas liquefaction charges. Shipments to India, for example, can take five times longer from Cove Point in the U.S. than from Ras Laffan in Qatar, LSEG data shows. And Australia can ship LNG to southern China in under nine days, compared to 35 days from the U.S. East Coast.
Mexico Arising as Potential Ally in Southeast Asian Energy Security — Energy demand in Southeast Asia is on a strong upward trajectory, driven by urbanization, industrial growth and the changing energy matrix in the region. Energy policy priorities for governments in the region are to maintain energy security, affordability and sustainability, but their infrastructure gaps make it difficult for them to achieve full connectivity. In this context, liquefied natural gas has emerged as one of the energy sources with the greatest potential. Indonesia and Malaysia play a dual role in both receiving and sending out LNG.
Vista Energy to pump more than $1 billion into growing Argentina shale (Reuters) - In a push to unlock more of the oil riches buried in a massive shale deposit in Argentina, Vista Energy will invest about $1.1 billion this year as it also aims to cut costs there by double digits, the firm's chief executive told Reuters. Miguel Galuccio, Vista Energy's founder and CEO, offered the near-term development plan for the Vaca Muerta shale formation in a Zoom interview from New York , where he was celebrating the company's five-year anniversary on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares have surged more than 460% since the company's initial public offering. The company also trades on the main stock index in Mexico, where it operates an onshore field. But Vaca Muerta, the world's largest shale project in development outside the United States, is by far the company's top project. It is also the Argentine government's main hope for reversing a longstanding energy deficit that has forced it to finance costly imports over decades. Galuccio noted how the project has taken off in just over a decade. "In 2012, Vaca Muerta was for believers. Today Vaca Muerta is for engineers," he said, touting expected production gains. Since last year, output from the deposit has more than doubled to reach 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in this year's second quarter. The breakneck growth will likely continue as output in the fourth quarter is seen hitting 85,000 boepd, on its way to reaching 100,000 boepd in 2026 and 150,000 boepd by the end of the decade, said Galuccio. To prime the expansion, Vista will invest in more wells and related transport infrastructure in the area, located in Argentina's western Neuquen province, where it already has 1,150 new well locations identified across more than 200,000 acres, according to company data. The former chief executive of state-owned oil producer YPF, Galuccio said Vista added its third drilling rig to its Vaca Muerta operations earlier this year and will bring on a second fracking crew in the fourth quarter. The technique requires blasting sand, toxic chemicals and large quantities of water into wells, which environmentalists criticize as harmful to aquifers and likely linked to a rise in earthquakes. While Vaca Muerta's lifting costs settled at $4.50 per barrel in the second quarter, the executive sees the extraction costs dipping around 11% to $4 by 2026. He described the expected cost at near the technical limit, from about $18 per barrel when production began. Galuccio flagged that insufficient pipeline capacity was the local industry's biggest bottleneck last year, but pointed to plans to address that by doubling capacity on midstream operator Oldelval's pipeline network, as well as separate expansions on the Vaca Muerta Sur and Norte pipelines. He also stressed that Argentina could use more help developing the massive shale formation, which is about the size of Belgium. "Vaca Muerta needs more Vistas and more investment," he said..
LNG tankers line up at Malaysia's Bintulu complex after maintenance -A backlog of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers is waiting to load at Malaysia's Bintulu terminal this week after outages and maintenance work disrupted production, according to industry sources and shiptracking data. The Bintulu facility in Sarawak, controlled by state-owned Petronas, consists of nine LNG production trains run by four different operators with total capacity of nearly 30 metric MMtpy, making it the largest LNG-exporting complex in Asia. Petronas' MLNG joint venture completed planned maintenance on its train 7 in August, while Train 4 had issues that required unplanned maintenance, two sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. One of the sources said that Trains 8 and 9 had also undergone unplanned maintenance in August. All four of the affected trains are now back up, the source said, declining to be identified because they were not authorized to speak to media. Petronas had previously requested that buyers defer some LNG loadings from its Bintulu complex due to operational issues at one production train, Reuters reported in August. A Rystad Energy report on Friday said that Trains 7 and 8 at Bintulu, operated by Petronas' Tiga joint venture, were facing issues. "The Petronas-operated Tiga project in Bintulu, Malaysia, is ... facing reduced capacity due to upstream gas issues for Train 7 and a glitch in the heat exchanger for Train 8, likely resulting in delivery delays for the fourth quarter of 2024," analyst Masanori Odaka wrote. At least seven LNG tankers were waiting to load at the Bintulu terminal as of Tuesday, with loading dates for some of them pushed back slightly, shiptracking data showed. Kpler analyst Go Katayama said that typically there would be two to three LNG vessels waiting to load at Bintulu. The LNG tanker Dukhan was scheduled to load on Tuesday, Kpler data showed, but the ship was still waiting off Bintulu as of Tuesday afternoon. LSEG data on Tuesday showed that the loading dates for Dukhan and another tanker, Oceanic Breeze, were pushed back by a day to Sept. 7. Asian spot LNG prices increased last week amid the production issues at Bintulu and an unplanned outage at Australia's Ichthys LNG, rising 20 cents to $14.00/MMBtu on Friday.
Supply Disruptions, Maintenance Not Enough to Sustain Global Natural Gas Price Gains — European and Asian natural gas prices fell again on Tuesday amid weak demand, but the losses could be shortlived as concerns over potential supply disruptions persist. NGI's LNG export flow tracker chart. In Europe, the prompt Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract fell 4% Tuesday to finish slightly above $12/MMBtu. It was the second straight session of declines following a period of strong gains in August, when the contract increased by 10% during the month. LNG plant outages, heavy Norwegian maintenance, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as hotter weather, all combined to push prices higher.
Egypt counts on foreign funds to buy gas as power crisis worsens --Saudi Arabia and Libya have financed the purchase of gas cargoes worth at least $200 MM to help Egypt ease its energy crisis this summer amid a steep decline in domestic gas output, two industry sources familiar with the matter said. Egypt needs some $2 B worth of gas to cover summer demand through October, according to one of the two sources familiar with the government's plan, but a hard currency crisis means it lacks funds to fully cover imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). "Without support from our friends in the Gulf, we won't be able to pay for these shipments," one of the sources said. He added officials were looking to raise more money from allies. The two sources said Saudi Arabia had financed three of the 32 LNG cargoes Cairo has bought so far this year, which according to Reuters calculations are worth around $150 MM at current prices. Libya bought one cargo in July worth around $50 MM with funds of the Libyan National Oil Corporation, the sources added. Egypt’s gas bill and funding from Saudi Arabia and Libya have not been previously reported. A spokesperson for Egypt's petroleum ministry said gas tender details were confidential. The Saudi government, Saudi Arabia's central bank and Libya's state energy firm NOC did not respond to requests for comment. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have poured tens of billions of dollars into Egypt to support President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, who they view as an important ally. Egypt has had to resort to load-shedding in the last year to keep its grid functioning amid a lack of gas supply and rising demand, and the deepening energy crisis is straining Cairo's budget as it grapples with a heavy subsidies bill. Sisi's government has boosted fuel and food subsidies this summer, but those increases do not offset a 60% devaluation in the Egyptian pound since March 2024, leaving Egypt's growing population struggling with the rising costs of living. Egypt’s foreign debt reached $154 B in May, close to end-2023's all-time high of $168 B. "This financial burden (of the gas bill) comes at a critical time for Egypt as it faces troubles reining in its subsidy bill, which could have an impact on social security and overall stability,"
Russia's Gazprom says H1 net income more than tripled to $10.9 B --Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom said on Thursday its first-half net income more than tripled from a year earlier to more than 1 T roubles ($10.9 B), thanks to rising gas exports and cost controls. Gazprom plunged to a net loss of around $7 B in 2023, its first year in the red since 1999, as its gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market, dwindled due to the military conflict in Ukraine. Deputy CEO Famil Sadygov also said on Gazprom's Telegram channel that core earnings in the January to June period rose 19% year on year to 1.459 T roubles due to an improving oil trade and a rise in gas exports, including to China. He added that a rise in Gazprom's stake in the Sakhalin Energy oil and gas project in Russia's Pacific also boosted its financials, while adjusted net profit, the base for the dividend payment, reached 779 B roubles for six months. Gazprom said it swung to a second-quarter net income of 389.7 B roubles from a loss of 18.6 B roubles a year before. Russia has continued to diversify its trade away from the West, which has imposed numerous unprecedented sanctions against Russian business and individuals over the conflict with Ukraine, and cemented its ties with Asia, notably China. Gazprom's CEO Alexei Miller said earlier on Thursday that the group increased natural gas exports to China by 37% in the first eight months of the year.
U.S. Again Sanctions Russia’s LNG Shadow Fleet to Stymie Operations -The U.S. government has imposed additional sanctions to hinder operations at Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 by further targeting a shadow fleet of tankers assembled to move cargoes from the facility. None The United States added the New Energy and Mulan vessels to a list of seven others that were sanctioned late last month. The State Department also sanctioned the vessels’ owner, Gotik Energy Shipping Co., and commercial manager Pilo Energy Cargo Shipping OPC PVT Ltd. Both companies are based in India. The sanctions are part of a broader package first rolled out by U.S. officials last year against the 19.8 million metric tons/year Arctic LNG 2 facility.
LNG entities under U.S. sanctions to curb Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on hundreds of entities and individuals for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine, including companies supporting the development of Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project and its shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as other future energy projects. The Arctic LNG 2 project by Russia's Novatek is subject to Western sanctions over Russia's conflict with Ukraine. The project had been due to become Russia's largest LNG plant with eventual output of 19.8 million metric tons per year of LNG from three trains. Below are the companies designated by the U.S. state department, as well as the vessels they own or manage, according to data from Equasis and Kpler: The U.S. state department said on Aug. 24 the Pioneer and Asya Energy vessels had entered Russian waters in late July, and had shut off and manipulated their automatic identification system (AIS) to broadcast false locations. While producing a false AIS signature, Pioneer and Asya Energy loaded LNG from the Arctic LNG 2 facility on Aug. 1-3 and 9-11 respectively, said the state department, citing commercial satellite imagery. Ocean Speedstar Solutions and Zara Shipholding did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In another round of sanctions on Sept. 5, the U.S. state department said New Energy used deceptive shipping practices, including shutting off its AIS, to load cargo from Arctic LNG 2 via a ship-to-ship transfer with the Pioneer vessel on Aug. 25. The four vessels have transshipped LNG from Russia's Yamal LNG project despite being originally intended for Arctic LNG 2 use, said the U.S. state department, adding that it is committed to blocking the expansion of Russia's existing LNG fleet. "Further, this transshipment of LNG by vessels with obfuscated ownership could eventually help Russia circumvent EU restrictions prohibiting the transshipment of Russian-origin LNG through European ports," it said. The state department also targeted Novatek China Holdings Co Ltd, a China-based firm established in August 2023 to market LNG from Arctic LNG 2. It also designated Russian construction firm Limited Liability Company Ekropromstroy used as a special purpose vehicle to sell equity stakes in Arctic LNG 2, and UAE-based Waterfall Engineering that provided parts to Arctic LNG 2 in 2023. The United States in addition designated several Russian-based companies involved in the development of the future Yakutia LNG project, one of the largest prospective LNG production projects in Russia. They include LLC Power of Yakutia, LLC Yakutstroiproekt and LLC Liquefied Natural Gas Yakutia.
Turkey Inks 10-Year, 4 Bcm Agreement to Buy U.S. LNG from Shell -Turkey’s state-owned Botaş Petroleum Pipeline Corp. is growing its LNG portfolio and the country’s potential as a natural gas hub with another long-term supply deal with a global market giant. A graph showing the amount of yearly LNG imports to Turkey from 2020 to September 2024. The firm, which controls Turkey’s extensive natural gas and oil pipelines and terminals, inked a 10-year agreement with Shell plc’s Middle East marketing arm for 4 Bcm, or around 2.9 million metric tons/year (mmty). Deliveries of liquefied natural gas from Shell’s U.S. portfolio are expected to begin in 2027.
Brent crude oil fell to 76.3 dollars per barrel - Oil prices fell on Monday on statistical data from China, which showed an increase in the decline in activity in the country's industrial sector, Azernews reports. The purchasing managers' Index (PMI) in the processing industry of the People's Republic of China in August fell to 49.1 points compared with 49.4 points a month earlier, the index value below 50 points indicates a decline in activity in the sector. The industrial PMI has been below this level for the fourth month. The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange was $76.33 per barrel, which is $ 0.6 (0.78%) lower than at the close of previous trading. WTI crude futures for October on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell in price by $ 0.53 (0.72%) to $ 73.02 per barrel. Last week, Brent fell by 0.3%, WTI - by 1.7%. In August, prices decreased by 2.4% and 5.6%, respectively, according to Dow Jones. Signals of a decline in activity in the industrial sector of the People's Republic of China reinforce expectations of weakening energy demand in the country, while OPEC+ countries are preparing to partially abandon voluntary production restrictions from October. According to Bloomberg, the countries of the alliance still intend to increase production by 180 thousand barrels per day from next month. At the moment, there is no evidence that this decision can be postponed, the agency's sources say.
The Oil Market Sold Off Sharply Following the Long Labor Day Holiday -- The oil market sold off sharply on Tuesday, following the long Labor Day holiday on Monday, after reports that a deal was imminent to resolve a dispute that has halted Libyan production and exports. During Monday’s holiday shortened session, the crude market traded higher and posted a high of $74.41, recovering some losses from late last week, as Libya’s oil exports remained halted and Libya’s National Oil Corp declared force majeure on its El Feel oilfield. However, the oil market erased Monday’s gains and sold off as sluggish economic growth in China increased demand concerns. Weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index over the weekend exacerbated concerns about China’s economy. The market was further pressured by the reports that a deal to resolve a dispute that halted Libya’s oil production and exports was imminent. The crude market extended its losses to $3.45 as it posted a low of $70.10 ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down $3.21 at $70.34, the lowest settlement since December 12th. The November Brent contract settled down $3.77 at $73.75. The product markets also ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.55 cents at $2.206 and the RB market settling down 2.34 cents at $1.9777. The legislative bodies representing Libya’s two regions agreed on Tuesday to appoint jointly a central bank governor, potentially defusing a battle over control of the country’s oil revenue that has cut output. The House of Representatives in Benghazi and the High State Council signed a joint statement after two days of talks hosted by the U.N. Support Mission in Libya. They agreed to appoint a central bank governor and board of directors within 30 days. Two engineers said Libya’s 70,000 bpd El Feel oilfield is “now undergoing major maintenance that will take time”, following the country’s National Oil Corporation’s declaration of force majeure on the field as of Monday, September 2nd. Several engineers said oil exports at major Libyan ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, amid a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 263,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 6th, increasing available refining capacity by 162,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 559,000 bpd in the week ending September 13th. Saudi shipping firm Bahri said its tanker Amjad was not targeted in a Red Sea attack, and that it had been spared any damage from the incident that hit another tanker that was sailing nearby. The U.S. Central Command said Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two crude oil tankers, the Saudi-flagged Amjad and the Panama-flagged Blue Lagoon I, in the Red Sea on Monday with two ballistic missiles and a one-way attack uncrewed aerial system, hitting both vessels. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output fell in August to its lowest since January as unrest that disrupted Libyan supply added to the impact of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC+ alliance. OPEC produced 26.36 million bpd last month, down 340,000 bpd from July.
Oil slumps about 5% as end to Libyan dispute in sight (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 5% down on Tuesday at their lowest levels in nearly nine months on signs of a deal to resolve a dispute that has halted Libyan crude production and exports. Brent crude futures closed down $3.77, or 4.9%, at $73.75 a barrel, their lowest level since Dec. 12. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) , which did not settle on Monday because of the U.S. Labor Day holiday, fell $3.21, or 4.4%, to $70.34 - also their lowest since December. Brent closed down 0.3% last week, while WTI settled 1.7% lower. Libya's legislative bodies have agreed to appoint a new central bank governor within 30 days after U.N.-sponsored talks, a statement signed by representatives of those bodies said on Tuesday. Libyan oil exports at major ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue. The speculation about a deal was triggering momentum selling, said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank. Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on its El Feel oilfield from Sept. 2. Total production had plunged to little more than 591,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 bpd on Aug. 26, NOC said. Production was at about 1.28 million bpd on July 20, the company said. Ahead of the news of more Libyan supply possibly returning to the market, prices had fallen on the belief that demand was being undercut because of sluggish economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer. "The weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend likely exacerbated concerns about the Chinese economy's performance," China reported on Monday that new export orders fell for the first time in eight months in July and that prices of new homes rose in August at their weakest pace this year. Hopes that the U.S. driving season would propel prices to new 2024 highs this summer have also failed to materialize, U.S. gasoline futures fell nearly 6% to their lowest since December 2021, as the end of the summer driving season weighed on demand for the motor fuel. "The fact that recent data shows no signs of any acceleration in import demand in China, Europe or North America points to a situation where the oil market is not going to be as tight as expected a few months ago," Some supply is set to return to the market as eight members of OPEC and affiliates, together known as OPEC+, are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 bpd in October. The plan is likely to go ahead regardless of demand worries, industry sources said. Disruptions to supply flows from the Middle East after two oil tankers were attacked on Monday in the Red Sea off Yemen were not enough to buoy prices. The tankers did not sustain major damage.
The Parties Vying for Control in Libya Reached an Agreement -- The crude market continued to trend lower on Wednesday as bearish sentiment seems to be dominating the narrative. While the market fell sharply on Tuesday following reports that the parties vying for control in Libya reached an agreement that may lead to the resumption of the country’s crude exports, the market seemed to discount the fact that Libya’s output remains shut. In overnight trading, the oil market continued to trade lower in follow through selling. The market later traded back above the $71.00 level to a high of $71.46 amid the news that OPEC delegates are discussing whether they should delay an oil output increase of 180,000 bpd starting in October due to the recent decline in prices. However, the market once again erased its gains and sold off to a low of $69.11 ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down $1.07 at $68.52 continued to sell off in the post settlement period to a low of $68.90. Meanwhile, the October Brent contract settled down $1.05 at $72.70. The product markets also ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.85 cents at $2.1575 and the RB market settling down 1.59 cents at $1.9618. UBS believes the oil market is undersupplied despite weak Chinese oil demand as demand remains strong in other countries, supply growth disappointed in some non-OPEC+ states. It said oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. It maintains a positive outlook and expects oil prices to recover from current levels over the coming months. It expects prices to recover, with Brent prices moving back up above $80/barrel over the coming months. Citi said that if OPEC+ doesn’t reduce production further, the average price of oil could fall to $60/barrel in 2025 due to reduced demand and increased supply from non-OPEC countries. Citi said that while a technical rebound was possible, the market could lose confidence in OPEC+ defending the $70/barrel level if the group does not commit to extending current output cuts indefinitely. Citi analysts said that if Brent prices fall into the $60s, financial flows could drive them down further, possibly to $50/barrel before a potential rebound. Citi recommends selling into rallies when Brent approaches $80, given the current market dynamics. Bloomberg is reporting that OPEC+ is discussing a possible delay to an oil output increase planned for October, which is scheduled to increase the group’s production quotas by 180,000 b/d. Last week, the group looked set to proceed with a 180,000 bpd increase in October, but market volatility from oil facility shutdowns in Libya and a weak demand outlook have raised concern within the group. Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to raise output by 180,000 bpd in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of output cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of next year. A 600,000 barrel oil tanker Front Jaguar was loading at Libya’s Brega port on Wednesday, despite a blockade that has halted other exports. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 529,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 6th, cutting available refining capacity by 104,000 bpd. Teamsters members working at Marathon Petroleum’s 140,000 bpd Detroit refinery will go on a strike starting Wednesday after months of pay and safety related negotiations with the company did not yield results. Marathon said it does not expect the strike to impact operations at the facility.
Crude futures settle down by more than $1/bbl on demand fears (Reuters) - Crude futures fell by more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday in see-saw trading, with traders worried about demand in coming months as crude producers offered mixed signals about supply increases. Brent crude futures settled down $1.05, or 1.42%, to $72.70 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.14, or 1.62%, at $69.20. During the session, both benchmarks swung from $1 down to $1 up following news OPEC+ was discussing delaying a possible output increase because Libyan production is expected to rise. In a broader sell-off, Brent crude futures tumbled as much as 11%, or about $9, in a little over a week, hitting a low of $72.63 on Wednesday. Lackluster data from the U.S. and China reinforced expectations of a weaker global economy and oil demand, helping set off a broader decline in world markets. "It's definitely worries about a slowdown in manufacturing," "That's the only negative we're seeing." Meanwhile, traders believed there could be an end in sight to a dispute halting Libyan oil exports, which would bring more crude supply back online. "This sell off moved the attention to what OPEC+’s response would be, which last week looked set to start the planned output hikes in October," . "The group is now concerned about pricing and sources say that a delay to the hikes is now being discussed." Recent data releases fed concerns of weak demand from China, the world's biggest crude importer, and U.S. consumption taking a hit. On Saturday, Chinese data showed manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August, when growth in new home prices slowed. On Tuesday in the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management data showed manufacturing remained subdued. Weekly U.S. oil inventory data was delayed by Monday's Labor Day holiday. The report from the American Petroleum Institute is due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday and data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published at 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday. U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. While traders were pessimistic on demand fears, changes in supply could easily change sentiments, . "We could flip on a dime," "It could very easily turn positive. We could see a pretty decent crude draw later today."
US oil futures higher after US inventories draw; sentiment fragile -- U.S. crude oil futures edged higher Thursday, helped by a larger-than-expected decline in weekly US domestic crude stocks as well a possible delay to the arrival of additional supply to the market. At 07:55 ET (11:55 GMT), Crude Oil WTI Futures traded 0.4% higher at $69.48 a barrel, while Brentfutures gained 0.6% to $73.12 a barrel.U.S. crude inventories decreased by about 7.4 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 30, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Wednesday, compared with a decline of 3.4M barrels the previous week. Economists were expecting a decline of just 900,000 barrels.Gasoline stockpiles fell by about 300,000 barrels, while distillate inventories -- the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil -- fell by 400,000 barrels.The official government inventory report is due later in the session.Also helping the tone were reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, next month was considering delaying oil output hikes, which had been planned for next month.Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October, as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. "If these reports turn out to be correct, the next key question is how long the group will delay their supply increases. The oil balance is in surplus through 2025 (assuming OPEC+ increases supply) and so continuing cuts into 2025 might make sense," said analysts at ING, in a note.However, gains are still limited Thursday amid concerns about global demand with a number of important economies showing signs of stress.A official survey released over the weekend indicated that China's manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August, raising doubts about future consumption from this key market.European economies are also struggling, while all eyes will be on further U.S. macroeconomic indicators later Thursday, including jobs data, to see how the world's largest economy is proceeding.
Oil Slides Despite Huge Draw Sending Total US Crude Inventories To 2024 Low With oil trading at 2024 lows, despite a report earlier denying last week's Reuters fake news that OPEC+ would hike output in October which sent oil prices tumbling, and despite last night's API report that a whopping 7.4 million in crude oil were drawn in the past week with draws also in all other categories, moments ago the DOE confirmed what we warned recently, namely that as CTAs - and the Kamala/Biden oil trading desk - are aggressively shorting oil into oblivion, oil demand remains resilient and very soon we may hit tank bottoms... ... when it reported another huge draw in the last week. Here is what API reported yesterday, and what the DOE said this morning: API ":
- Crude -7.4mm (exp. -1mm)
- Gasoline -0.3mm
- Distillates -0.4mm
- Cushing -0.8mm
DOE
- Crude -6.873k (exp. -0.3mm)
- Gasoline +848k
- Distillates -371k
- Cushing -1.142mm
Of note, US Crude stocks declined for the 9th week in the past 10 (my much more than expected) as Gasoline inventories rose fractionally reversing 3 weeks of draws while distillates were flat. But what is perhaps most interesting is the continued drain of Cushing, where a few more weeks of this decline and everyone will be talking about tank bottoms. One reason for the large oil draw is that in the past week, the Biden admin added a notable 1.8mm barrels to the SPR, the largest increase since June 2020. That pushed the total US Crude stockpile down to its lowest since January...... with Cushing stocks rapidly approaching the 20MM level many consider tank bottoms.The collapse in US inventories takes place as US crude production remained at an all time record high (and despite a continued decline in oil rigs).
Implications of OPEC+ Decision on the Oil Market - Discussions Between OPEC+ Producers on Delaying the Output Increases Scheduled for October - The oil market continued on its downward trend despite some supportive news that initially limited the market’s losses. The market held support in overnight trading following reports of discussions between OPEC+ producers on Wednesday about delaying the output increases that are scheduled to begin in October. The market retraced some of its losses and traded in a sideways trading range from $69.15 to $70.15. The crude market later rallied higher to a high of $70.82 on the announcement by OPEC that eight members of OPEC+ will extend their voluntary output cuts by two months until the end of November. The market was further supported by the larger than expected draw in crude stocks reported by the EIA. The weekly petroleum stocks report showed a draw of over 6.8 million barrels on the week. However, as bearish sentiment once again overshadowed any supportive news, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $68.75 ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down 5 cents at $69.15 while the October Brent contract settled down 1 cent at $72.69. The product markets ended the session mixed with the heating oil market settling up 1.14 cents at $2.1689 and the RB market settling down 3.6 cents at $1.9258.The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell to their lowest since September 2023 as imports fell, while gasoline stockpiles increased with the end of the summer driving season. Crude inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels in the week ending August 30th. Net U.S. crude imports fell last week by 853,000 bpd to 2.0 million bpd, while exports increased by 85,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd. Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 1.1 million barrels.OPEC said eight members of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, will extend their voluntary output cuts by two months until the end of November. It said the participating countries agreed to extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd.HSBC said in a report that any decision by OPEC+ might be taken negatively by the market. Holding off its output increase may be interpreted as a belated admission by OPEC that oil demand is weak. It said increasing production would tip the oil market into a meaningful surplus from the first quarter of 2025 onwards. HSBC said its Brent price forecasts remain at $80/barrel for the second half of 2024 and $76.50/barrel for 2025. However, it stated that downside risks are increasing.RBC Capital analyst, Helima Croft, said that it may be prudent for OPEC+ to wait until December before returning extra barrels.Shipping data showed that Libyan oil exports remained mostly halted on Thursday, but some tankers were being allowed to load crude from storage, with output still curtailed amid a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue. Engineers said an oil tanker, Kriti Samaria, has been approved for entry into Libya’s Zueitina port on Thursday evening or Friday to load 600,000 barrels of crude oil and will head to Italy. The tanker will be permitted to load oil from storage. Another tanker, the Front Jaguar, was loading crude from storage at Libya’s Brega port.
WTI hovers around $68.50 close to nine-month lows -West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $68.60 during the Asian hours on Friday, hovering around 68.37 lowest since December 2023, which was recorded on Thursday. Crude Oil prices depreciate due to concerns over demand in both the United States (US) and China. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated that factory activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month, with the pace of decline slightly exceeding expectations. Additionally, the world's biggest crude importer China showed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, with factory gate prices dropping significantly. On Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a Crude Oil Stocks Change, which reduced by 6.873 million barrels of crude Oil inventory for the week ending August 30. This was significantly larger than the market's expectation of a 0.9 million-barrel decrease, following the prior reduction of 0.846 million barrels. The downside of the Oil prices would be restrained due to ongoing discussions between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia (OPEC+), regarding a delay in planned output increases set to begin in October. According to Reuters, OPEC+ decided to postpone the scheduled Oil output increase for October and November and indicated that further delays or reversals of the hikes could be considered if necessary. WTI prices may find support from the dovish comments made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which enhance the chances of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed in September. Lower borrowing costs could stimulate economic activity in the United States, potentially boosting Oil demand. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the longer-run trend of the labor market and inflation data justify the Fed easing interest-rate policy soon and then steadily over the next year. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Goolsbee’s words as neutral with a score of 3.8. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has risen to 41.0%, up from 30.0% a week ago.
Oil settles down 2%, big weekly drop after US jobs data (Reuters) - Oil prices settled 2% lower on Friday, with a big weekly loss after data U.S. jobs data was weaker than expected in August, which outweighed price support from a delay to supply increases by OPEC+ producers. Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel, their lowest level since Dec. 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48, or 2.14%, to$67.67, their lowest since June 2023. For the week, Brent declined 10%, while WTI dropped around 8%. U.S. government data showed employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested an orderly labor market slowdown that may not warrant a big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month. "The jobs report was a little soft and implied that the economy in the U.S. is on the slide," Concerns around Chinese demand also kept pressuring oil prices. On Thursday, Brent settled at its lowest since June 2023 despite a withdrawal from U.S. oil inventories and a decision by OPEC+ to delay planned oil output increases. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 6.9 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels last week, compared with a projected decline of 993,000 barrels in a Reuters poll of analysts. Signals that Libya's rival factions could be closer to an agreement to end the dispute that has halted the country's crude exports also pressured oil prices this week. Exports remained mostly shut in but some loadings have been permitted from storage. Bank of America lowered its Brent price forecast for the second half of 2024 to $75 a barrel from almost $90 previously, it said in a note on Friday, citing building global inventories, weaker demand growth and OPEC+ spare production capacity. The U.S. active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, remained unchanged at 483 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes reported on Friday. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Oil prices drop 8% for the week, pressured by prospects of a slowdown in demand Oil futures fell sharply on Friday to post a weekly drop of about 8%, with global benchmark prices settling at their lowest since 2021, driven by worries over a slowdown in demand. Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday raised concerns over the economy, but also fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon reduce interest rates to avoid a recession. An agreement by major oil producers on Thursday to postpone plans to increase oil production ultimately failed to provide any support the crude market. November Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined by $1.63, or 2.2%, to end at $71.06 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe - the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 3, 2021. It posted a weekly decline of 7.6%.West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery fell $1.48, or 2.1%, to settle at $67.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest finish since June 12, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices lost 8% for the week.October gasoline RBV24 shed nearly 1.6% to $1.90 a gallon, ending 9.4% lower for the week, while October heating oil HOV24 lost 2.5% to $2.12 a gallon, for a weekly loss of 7.2%.Natural gas for October delivery NGV24 settled at $2.28 per million British thermal units, up 0.9% for the week to log a weekly rise of 7%. Prices for oil had moved up shortly after the disappointing U.S. jobs data, which lifted prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut that is likely to stimulate economic growth, and oil demand along with it. But the weaker jobs report also intensified concerns over oil demand, Traders will continue to pay attention to economic data, especially the U.S. consumer price index reading Wednesday, he said. That's the last major U.S. data release before the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy meeting starts on Sept. 17. The U.S. economy created 142,000 new jobs in August data on Friday showed, below the 161,000 forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, declining for the first time in five months. The smaller-than-expected gain was "probably just enough to tip the Fed in favour of a measured 25 [basis point] rate cut this month, rather than a more dramatic move," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, in a note. "But the labour market is clearly experiencing a marked slowdown." WTI and Brent wiped out 2024 gains this week with analysts citing fears over a global economic slowdown. With oil slumping, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies said on Thursday they would extend voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day for two months to the end of November. The reductions will be "gradually phased out on a monthly basis starting Dec. 1, 2024." The cuts had previously been scheduled to be phased out beginning in October. OPEC+ has been "backed into a corner; they can't unwind production cuts without pushing prices further [down] into the $60s," "The bigger challenge comes for them given seasonality - supply is going to outpace demand over October and November, as long as Libyan supply issues are resolved," he said. In a note, Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said "the final agreement on a postponement of two months has so far only helped the oil price to a limited extent - after all, 'postponed is not canceled,' but it shows that OPEC+ is continuing its efforts to stabilize prices." Meanwhile, traders keeping an eye on weather systems forming in the Atlantic, with more than two months left in the Atlantic hurricane season. "The Atlantic Hurricane Map has splotches all over it," with forecasters at the National Hurricane Center keeping an eye on weather disturbances swirling in the Atlantic Basin. "It is so difficult to predict what is going to happen to those potential storms," said Kpler's Smith. "If one makes landfall on the western side of the U.S. Gulf, then it would likely lean bearish crude and bullish products because of an impact to refinery operations," he said. "If a storm makes landfall further east in the U.S. Gulf towards Louisiana, then it would lean morre bullish for crude because of likely production shut-ins in Gulf of Mexico.".
ISIS Suicide Bombing Kills At Least Six in Kabul - On Monday, a suicide bombing was carried out on the southern outskirts of the Afghan capital city of Kabul. The attack killed at least six people and wounded 13 others, according to Afghan police.The strike was in the Qala Bakhtiar neighborhood. ISIS-K, the local ISIS affiliate which US officials repeatedly claimed was totally destroyed during the Afghan War, has taken credit for the attack, and put the total number of deaths much higher at “more than 45” killed.ISIS said that the strike was meant to “avenge Muslims held in Taliban prisons.” Though violence in Afghanistan is generally down since the end of the US-led occupation, ISIS-K remains an active force in the country, carrying out attacks of opportunity as they are able.The Taliban has sought to downplay the seriousness of the ISIS-K threat just as much as the US-backed government did, saying last month that ISIS-K only existed in the country before the Taliban “suppressed them very hard.” Government spokesmen Zabihullah Mujahid added at the time that “no groups exist” which pose any threat to the country.ISIS-K has been blamed for several high-profile attacks in recent years,including the 2021 attack outside the Kabul airport, and the 2022 attack targeting students at a school, both of which left high casualties.The most recent ISIS-K attack in Afghanistan came in March, and was detonated in front of a bank in the city of Kandahar. Three people were reported killed and 12 others were wounded.
New Great Game: Why Central Asian countries are pivoting towards Taliban - News published in the Afghan press in recent weeks suggests that some Central Asian countries have taken significant steps towards recognising the Taliban administration in Afghanistan. According to these reports, three major Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—have already undertaken concrete steps to recognise the Taliban administration and signed important agreements with Kabul. An August 31 statement quoting Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Bakayev said the country had approved Taliban’s representative as chargé d'affaires of Afghanistan in Astana, while Turkmenistan took a similar step in July. Earlier in June, Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev said he had removed the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations to enhance economic relations with Afghanistan. Similar developments are evident in Uzbekistan-Afghanistan relations, with Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Nigmatovich Aripov meeting Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Mawlawi Abdul Kabir on August 18. “Uzbekistan was the first country to establish official relations with the Islamic Emirate, and these relations are currently being maintained on the basis of goodwill and cooperation. Soon, the ambassador of the Islamic Emirate will be received in Tashkent,” Aripov was quoted as saying by Afghanistan’s national TV, emphasising the development of bilateral ties. Meanwhile, on August 21, Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov told Afghanistan's Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi that Turkmenistan was ready to support Afghanistan on the TAPI project, a natural gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. These developments collectively indicate that Central Asian countries are preparing to officially recognise the Taliban administration and establish normalised relations. In the three years since the Taliban reassumed power in Afghanistan, world politics has experienced numerous crises.However, Afghanistan seems to have experienced relative calm in the absence of any serious opposition, allowing the Taliban the space to institutionalise its grip on power.According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)'s June 2024 assessment report, “although two anti-Taliban resistance groups…have carried out confirmed attacks in the capital, armed opposition in the capital and northern provinces has not posed a significant challenge to the Taliban's territorial control since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021”.
Saudi Economy Chalks Up 'Robust' Growth As MbS Sits Out Of Regional Conflicts -Saudi Arabia’s economy has powered ahead despite Israel’s war in Gaza and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, suggesting that the kingdom’s efforts to distance itself from regional tensions are paying off, literally. "Geopolitical events in the Middle East have not had any major impact on the Saudi economy so far," the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report published on the kingdom’s economy.The report says that Saudi oil exports are not dependent on the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthis have targeted commercial ships, in what they say is in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Likewise, Saudi Arabia’s tourism numbers "remain strong". In general, the IMF painted a rosy picture of Saudi Arabia’s economy, with a strong banking system, growing home ownership and "robust" non-oil economic growth. The report underscores the divergence between Gulf economies and those of poorer states like Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan, whose already weak economies have been battered by Israel’s war.Saudi Arabia will take the IMF report as affirmation that it has successfully maneuvered to avoid getting sucked into the Gaza war. Saudi Arabia has become more vocal in calling for Israel to take steps towards a Palestinian state and has frozen talks to normalise ties with Israel, but it has held off on any further measures in solidarity with the Palestinians.Saudi Arabia has also avoided joining the US’s military campaign against its one-time foe, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. As the group wages a war on commercial shipping, Saudi Arabia has relaxed banking restrictions on them and resumed flights to Yemen.Despite tensions over Gaza that have raised concerns about a regional conflict, Saudi Arabia has been focused on economic growth as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 program, designed to wean the Saudi economy off of petrodollars.The program is bearing fruit. At the end of 2023, Saudi Arabia’s unemployment rate reached a historic low, mainly because of a growth in private sector jobs, the IMF said. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP hit 3.8 percent in 2023, marking a slowdown from 2022 when it reached 5.3 percent, but was still “robust” thanks to strong investment and private consumption. However, the IMF also noted that Saudi Arabia has "recalibrated" some of its more ambitious mega-projects. The kingdom has had to scale back Neom, a $1.5 trillion megacity project which organizers claim will eventually be 33 times the size of New York City and include a 170km straight-line city. Instead of 1.5 million people living in the city by 2030, Saudi officials now anticipate fewer than 300,000 residents. Meanwhile, only 2.4km of the city is set to be completed by 2030.The crown prince's program is dependent on oil revenue. The IMF estimates that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $96 per barrel to balance its budget, roughly $20 less than they are now. The kingdom has tried to balance its efforts to support oil prices by cutting output and pumping crude before global energy demand peaks.The IMF’s assessment that Saudi Arabia's oil revenue is likely to decline quicker than previously estimated will raise concerns among Saudi officials. Revenue is expected to rise to $209bn in 2026, roughly 26 percent of GDP, before declining faster in 2029 to 4.1 percent less than expected earlier.
Cabinet underscores Saudi efforts to end Israeli aggression on Palestinians - Saudi Gazette — The session of the Council of Ministers, chaired by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday, underscored Saudi Arabia's relentless efforts to put an end to Israel's aggression on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and other occupied territories. In this context, the Cabinet was briefed on the phone calls made by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt. During the phone calls, the Crown Prince had emphasized the Kingdom's keenness on unifying Arab and Islamic efforts to support the Palestinian people, and stressed the need to exert all efforts to halt the Israeli escalation and violations. The Crown Prince also briefed the Cabinet on the message sent to the prime minister of Tonga as well as on his meeting with the president of the European Council. In a statement to the Saudi Press Agency following the session, Minister of Media Salman Al-Dossary said that the Cabinet reviewed the outcomes of the several international meetings in which the Kingdom attended as part of its commitment to increasing cooperation and coordination with friendly nations, and advancing multilateral endeavors to attain progress and prosperity. The Council commended the recent meeting of the Executive Committee of the Saudi-Qatari Coordination Council, which demonstrated the two countries' commitment to strengthening relations and pursuing shared goals in various sectors, to the benefit of the people of the two countries. The Cabinet also reviewed regional and international developments, and reaffirmed the Kingdom's unwavering support for initiatives aimed at promoting security, stability, and sustainable development regionally and globally.
UK Announces Partial Ban On Arms Exports To Israel - The United Kingdom has announced it will suspend a portion of its current arms and defense sales to Israel, citing a "clear risk" to civilians and that they could be used to violate international humanitarian law.Foreign Secretary David Lammy informed parliament Monday that the suspension will impact of 30 of 350 arms export licenses to Israel. The partial ban covers supplies "which could be used in the current conflict in Gaza" against Hamas. However, parts for F-35 fighter jets are exempt from the ban. He emphasized that the country still backs Israel's right to self-defense, and thus the UK is not enacting a blanket ban on all items."It is with regret that I inform the House [of Commons] today the assessment I have received leaves me unable to conclude anything other than that for certain UK arms exports to Israel, there does exist a clear risk that they might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law," Lammy said, after conducing a review of shipments to Israel. "We recognize, of course, Israel’s need to defend itself against security threats, but we are deeply worried by the methods that Israel’s employed, and by reports of civilian casualties and the destruction of civilian infrastructure particularly," he continued. The Gaza Health Ministry has said that over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in over ten months of war. Israel says a large percentage of the deceased are Hamas militants, while Palestinian sources assert the majority are women and children. Analysts say this is not expected to have much of an impact on Israel's operations given that British exports only make up less than one percent of total external arms sales Israel receives.Israel reacted with disappointment, anger, dismay. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz lashed out Monday in wake of the UK decision, saying it "sends a very problematic message" to terrorist groups like Hamas and its supporters in Iran.But Lammy had sought to emphasize in his comments it doesn't mean he believes Israel is guilty of war crimes or human rights abuses per se. "This is a forward looking evaluation, not a determination of innocence or guilt, and it does not prejudge any future determinations by the competent courts," he said. Meanwhile, pressure from Washington to wrap up Gaza operations also could be growing... Large and growing pro-Palestine protests which have gripped parts of London over the last weeks and months have been increasing in size and intensity, and are perhaps having an impact on Labour politicians.
UK Suspends Some Arms Exports to Israel Over Gaza War Crimes - The UK announced Monday that it has suspended some arms export licenses to Israel over concerns the weapons are being used to violate international law in Gaza.Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the decision, which suspends 30 out of 355 export licenses for Israel and covers components for military aircraft, including fighter jets, drones, and helicopters. The export bans do not apply to components for the F-35 fighter jets, which the UK exports as part of a multinational program, unless it is known that the components will be shipped directly to Israel. Activists who have pressured the British government to suspend arms exports to Israel criticized the exemption for F-35s, which are a critical part of the Israeli Air Force. “The suspension of export licenses took far long and didn’t go far enough,” said Yasmine Ahmed, director of Human Rights Watch in the UK, according to Middle East Eye. “That the UK government chose to exempt components for the F-35, a workhorse of Israel’s brutal bombing campaign, shows either a miscomprehension of the law or a wilful disregard.” Lammy said a British government review concluded that there is a “clear risk” that British weapons might be used in serious violations of international humanitarian law. He also claimed that it hasn’t been verified that Israel has violated international law despite the mountain of evidence of Israeli war crimes that has emerged over nearly 11 months of the genocidal slaughter in Gaza. The US has similar foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries that will use it to violate US or international law. After a review, the State Department concluded that Israel was likely breaking the law but claimed there wasn’t evidence, allowing the military shipments to continue to flow.
Israel fuming over ‘shameful’ UK ban on some Israel arms exports - Israeli officials are furious over the United Kingdom’s decision to immediately halt some of its arms exports to Israel, a move that was made because they could be used for a “serious violation” of international humanitarian law in the country’s war in Gaza. U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy said Monday that the government will stop 30 of the 350 arms export licenses with Israel due to a “clear risk” some weapons might be used to “commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law” in the embattled enclave. The suspended export licenses are for equipment such as military fighter jet, helicopter and drone parts, along with other items used for ground targeting, Lammy told U.K. lawmakers. He stressed the decision was “not a determination of innocence or guilt” over whether Israel had broken international law, and it also wasn’t an arms embargo. “We recognize, of course, Israel’s need to defend itself against security threats, but we are deeply worried by the methods that Israel’s employed, and by reports of civilian casualties and the destruction of civilian infrastructure particularly,” Lammy told Parliament. But the move — while not a serious development as U.K. exports make up less than 1 percent of arms Israel receives from other countries — is nonetheless a clear move to pressure Israel to end its conflict against Hamas in Gaza. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey stood by the decision when he said his country had a duty “to tell the hardest truths” to its “closest friends.” Israeli officials, however, were not pleased, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant writing on the social platform X on Monday that he was “deeply disheartened” to learn of the sanctions. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on Tuesday called Britain’s decision “shameful.” The U.K.’s “shameful decision will not change Israel’s determination to defeat Hamas, a genocidal terrorist organization that savagely murdered 1200 people on October 7, including 14 British citizens,” he said in the statement.
Protests roil Israel for second day over hostage deaths --Protests roiled Israel for a second day and a general strike caused disruptions across the country after the military recovered the bodies of six hostages over the weekend.Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets on Sunday night to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a cease-fire and hostage release deal with the militant group Hamas after nearly 11 months of conflict. A general strike was held Monday, The Associated Press reported, called by Israel’s largest trade union, the Histadrut. Street protests also resumed across the country.Late Monday, several thousand demonstrators gathered outside Netanyahu’s private home, chanting, “Deal. Now,” according to the AP.The families of the deceased hostages have blamed Netanyahu, contending they could have been saved through a deal with Hamas, according to the AP. President Biden also said Monday that Netanyahu isn’t doing enough to secure a hostage deal.Netanyahu pushed back against the pressure for a cease-fire, saying he’ll continue to insist on Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt. He also sought forgiveness for the hostage deaths and vowed consequences for Hamas.“I told the families, and I repeat and say this evening: I am asking for your forgiveness that we didn’t manage to bring them back alive. We were very close, but we couldn’t make it,” Netanyahu said during a Monday press conference, per a CNN translation.Hamas’s surprise assault last year left more than 1,100 people dead, and roughly 250 hostageswere taken captive, sparking the ongoing war in Gaza. Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians since early October, according to local health officials.
Israeli Labor Court Ends Strike Meant To Pressure Netanyahu on Hostage Deal - Israel’s Labor Court ruled on Monday to end a general strike that was called to pressure the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a hostage and ceasefire deal with Hamas.The court ordered the strike to be lifted at 2:30 p.m. local time, three and a half hours before its scheduled end. Israel’s largest labor union, the Histadrut, which called the strike, said it would comply with the order.The partial strike still disrupted services across Israel for the first half of the day. According to The Washington Post, the strike closed or delayed schools and universities, delayed departure flights for at least two hours, and closed some banks and malls. Doctors and nurses also walked off their jobs, restricting hospitals to emergency services only.By ruling to shut the strike down, the court accepted the government’s argument that the strike was political and not about the economy. The Histadrut’s stance was that the government was damaging the economy by not accepting a hostage deal with Hamas.The court’s decision was a major victory for Netanyahu, who reportedly accused the workers participating in the strike of supporting Hamas. According to Israeli media outlets, Netanyahu told his security cabinet that the strike was a “disgrace. It’s telling [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar — you murdered six people. Here, we support you.”The strike was declared after the Israeli military recovered the bodies of six Israeli hostages in Gaza. The Hostage Families and Missing Forum said Netanyahu was to blame for their deaths since he’s been doing everything he can to sabotage the chances of a ceasefire deal. “A deal for the return of the abductees has been on the table for over two months. If it weren’t for the thwarting [of the deal], the excuses, and the spins, the abductees whose deaths we learned of this morning would probably be alive,” the forum said.
Live blog: Deadly Israeli strike hits Gaza college sheltering displaced — At least seven Palestinians were killed and several others injured in an Israeli airstrike targeting a college building housing displaced people in Gaza City, a medical source has said.The attack targeted the Namaa College building, where hundreds of displaced Palestinians have taken shelter northwest of Gaza City, the source added."There is a threat from the Israeli army to strike the college again," the Palestinian Civil Defense Agency warned in a statement. According to witnesses, one of the college buildings was destroyed in the Israeli attack."The targeted area was crowded with residents and displaced people," an eyewitness told Anadolu. The head of the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) said that a recent announcement by the United Kingdom that it will suspend 30 of 350 export licences in arms sales to Israel is a "small but important step" toward ensuring adherence to international law.Zara Mohammed emphasised the devastating effect of the Israeli bombardment on civilian lives in Gaza and argued that the UK’s decision, while her group welcomed, falls far short of what is needed."It comes at a time when the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 40,000; too many lives have been lost and injured due to Israeli bombardment," said Mohammed.The UK government announced a restriction on arms sales to Israel in a significant yet limited policy shift. The move, which represents 1 percent of the UK's arms trade with Israel, comes amid growing international concern about the escalating conflict in Gaza.Despite the move, Mohammed expressed deep concern about the continuing flow of arms from the UK to Israel, noting that the restricted licenses represent a fraction of the total arms trade.
Israel Kills 47 More Palestinians in Gaza, Recorded Death Toll Passes 40,700 - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Sunday that Israeli forces killed at least 47 Palestinians in Gaza in the previous 24 hours, bringing the recorded death toll to 40,738.“Israeli forces killed 47 people and injured 94 others in three ‘massacres’ of families in the last 24 hours,” the ministry said, according to Turkey’sAnadolu Agency. “Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the roads as rescuers are unable to reach them.”One of the strikes targeted a school in Gaza City that was sheltering displaced civilians. According to AFP, Gaza health officials said the strike targeted policemen and killed a total of 11 people.“Eleven people, including a woman and girl, were killed when an Israeli air strike struck the Safad school in Gaza City sheltering displaced people,” said Gaza Civil Defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal. Also on Sunday, an effort to vaccinate children for polio began in central Gaza. The drive will last three days in central Gaza before moving to the north and then the south. The World Health Organization said Israel has agreed to pause military operations in those areas while the vaccines are being administered. But Israeli strikes were reported in central Gaza on Sunday, including one on a vehicle that killed four people.
Israel Kills Another 48 Palestinians in Gaza - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli forces killed at least 48 Palestinians in Gaza, bringing the recorded death toll to 40,786.“Israeli forces killed 48 people and injured 70 others in three ‘massacres’ of families in the last 24 hours,” the ministry said, according to Turkey’sAnadolu Agency. “Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the roads as rescuers are unable to reach them.”The ministry said that the 70 Palestinians who were injured bring the total number of wounded since October 7 to 94,224.Israeli strikes were reported across the Gaza Strip, including in Gaza City,where seven Palestinians were killed in two separate airstrikes. Two Palestinians, including a child, were reported killed in the Nuiserat camp in central Gaza.
Israeli Forces Kill 42 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip -Gaza’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that 42 more Palestinians were killed by Israel’s assault on the besieged territory in the previous 24-hour period, and another 107 were wounded.The new casualties bring the total recorded death toll to 40,861 and the number of wounded to 94,398. The Health Ministry’s numbers do not include Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble, which has previously been estimated to be about 10,000 people.It’s also unclear how many people have died in Gaza due to indirect causes. A letter written by a group of experts recently published in the British medical journal The Lancet estimated the total number of deaths in Gaza, including those killed by the Israeli military and indirect causes, could reach 186,000. They reached the numbers by using the death toll from the end of June, which was 37,396.Israeli strikes were reported in Gaza on Wednesday across the territory, including in the southern city of Khan Younis, the central Nuseirat camp, and in northern areas, including Gaza City.
'Jenin Is Just the Beginning': Israel Planning More Escalations in West Bank - Israel is planning more significant escalations in the West Bank, and the Israeli military now considers the occupied territory the second most critical front, immediately after Gaza, Israel Hayom reported on Tuesday.Israeli security officials told the outlet that while the directive for the West Bank is in its initial stages and that changes on the ground will take time, a new series of operations across the territory are imminent.Last week, Israel launched its largest attack on the West Bank since 2002, with raids focused on Jenin and Tulkarm in the north. “The Jenin operation is just the beginning,” a security official told Israel Hayom.The Israeli assault on Jenin continued for the seventh day on Tuesday as the city remains under siege. According to the Jenin municipality, the Israeli military has destroyed 70% of the roads and infrastructure in the city, and about 80% of the water has been cut off to residents.According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, at least 30 Palestinians have been killed and 130 others were injured in the West Bank since Israel launched the assault last week. The total deaths include six children and two elderly people. Since October 7, 680 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank.The Israel Hayom report said that the Israeli military aims to have a calmer West Bank by October, but the escalations will likely lead to more armed resistance from Palestinians.As Israel began the assault last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the West Bank should be dealt with the same as Gaza and called for the evacuation of Palestinians. Some Palestinians have been forced out of their homes in the territory, similar to the forced displacements in Gaza.Many members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government have been outspoken about their desire to annex the West Bank and take over more land. When the coalition was formed in 2022, it agreed to prioritize the expansion of West Bank settlements with the ultimate goal of annexing the territory.
Gallant Says Israel 'Mowing the Lawn' in the West Bank But Will Need to 'Pull Out the Roots' - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that the Israeli military was “mowing the lawn” in the Israeli-occupied West Bank but will eventually need to “pull out the roots.”“Mowing the lawn” is a term the Israeli military used for its bombing campaigns in Gaza pre-October 7. The idea is that the raids would reduce Hamas’s military capability but not eliminate it, and it would eventually grow back, requiring another bombing campaign.“The process is an attack to prevent terror. We are mowing the lawn, [but] the moment will also come when we will pull out the roots, that must be done,” Gallant said.Israeli settler and military violence surged in the West Bank amid Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. The Israeli government has also approved new major land grabs in the occupied territory, and settlers have been taking over Palestinian homes. The Israeli actions have naturally led to an increase in armed Palestinian resistance. “These terror organizations that call themselves by all kinds of names, in Nur Shams, or Tulkarm, or Far’a, or Jenin — they should be wiped out. Every such terrorist should be eliminated, [or] if they surrender, arrest them. There is no other option, use all the forces, everyone who is needed, with full strength,” Gallant said.Last week, Israel launched its largest assault on the West Bank since 2002, which is still underway in the northern areas of Jenin and Tulkarm.Israel Hayom reported that Israel is planning more escalations in the West Bank and now considers the territory the second most critical front, immediately after Gaza.According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, 33 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s operation in the West Bank since it was launched last Tuesday. A total of 685 Palestinians have been killed in the territory since October 7.
Amnesty International Calls for War Crimes Probe Into Israel's 'Buffer Zone' - On Thursday, Amnesty International said Israel’s creation of a “buffer zone” in Gaza should be investigated as war crimes since it has involved the “wanton destruction” of all buildings and agricultural land in those areas.“Using bulldozers and manually laid explosives, the Israeli military has unlawfully destroyed agricultural land and civilian buildings, razing entire neighborhoods, including homes, schools and mosques,” Amnesty said.“By analyzing satellite imagery and videos posted by Israeli soldiers on social media between October 2023 and May 2024, Amnesty International’s Crisis Evidence Lab identified newly cleared land along Gaza’s eastern boundary, ranging from approximately 1km to 1.8km wide. In some videos, Israeli soldiers are seen posing for pictures or toasting in celebration as buildings are demolished in the background,” the group added.Amnesty also said the destruction should be investigated for the war crime of collective punishment. “Systematically destroying civilian objects in retaliation for actions by armed groups may constitute collective punishment and should be investigated as a war crime,” the group said.Israel’s “buffer zone,” which runs along Gaza’s border with Israel,accounts for 16% of the besieged enclave’s territory. The Israeli military has carried out a similar campaign of destruction in the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip. Combining the two areas accounts for about 26% of the Strip.Many Israeli ministers and lawmakers have called for the re-establishment of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip. Settlements used to be located in the Netzarim Corridor, including where the Turkish hospital now stands, which has been taken over by Israeli forces and is now used as a military base.
Putin arrives in Mongolia, key link in planned gas pipeline to China -The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had arrived for a state visit in Mongolia, which lies on the route of a planned new gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. Russia has been in talks for years about building the pipeline to carry 50 Bm3y of natural gas from its Yamal region to China via Mongolia. The project, Power of Siberia 2, is part of Russia's strategy to compensate for the loss of most of its gas sales in Europe since the start of the Ukraine war. It is the planned successor to an existing pipeline of the same name which already supplies Russian gas to China and is due to reach its planned capacity of 38 Bm3y in 2025. The new venture has long been bogged down over key issues such as the pricing of the gas. However, Putin said on the eve of his visit that preparatory work, including feasibility and engineering studies, were proceeding as scheduled. He is due to hold talks with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh on Tuesday. Ukraine urged Mongolia last week to arrest Putin on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court warrant last year, when it accused him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. The Kremlin has dismissed the accusation, saying it is politically motivated, and has said it has no worries about Putin making the trip. The warrant obliges the court's 124 member states, including Mongolia, to arrest Putin and transfer him to The Hague for trial if he sets foot on their territory. Asked whether there had been discussions with Mongolian authorities about the ICC warrant, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that "all of the aspects of the visit have been thoroughly discussed."
Putin visits Mongolia, in defiance of arrest order from international court - Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived Monday in Mongolia, a member of the international court that has issued an arrest warrant against him. It’s Putin’s first visit to a member country of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since it issued an arrest warrant in March 2023. Ukraine is calling on Mongolia to arrest Putin and hand him over to ICC. Last week, a spokesperson for the Russian President said the Kremlin was not worried about the visit. While ICC member countries are bound to detain suspects if there is an arrest warrant out against them, there is no enforcement mechanism, The Associated Press reported. ICC issued the arrest warrant more than a year ago over allegations of war crimes and the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. It was largely viewed as a way for the international community to hold Putin responsible for the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in Feb. 2022. Putin is expected to meet with Mongolian leader Ukhnaa Khurelsukh Tuesday and attend a ceremony marking the 1939 victory of Soviet and Mongolian troops over the Japanese army. Mongolia is heavily dependent on both Russia and China for resources, The AP reported.
Putin Declares Kursk Gambit Failed As Ukraine's Army Steamrolled In East --Russian President Vladimir Putin has used his visit to the allied country of Mongolia to thumb his nose at the West. Firstly, Mongolia is a signatory to the Rome Statutes of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has pleaded for its member state to arrest him, which Mongolia will of course not do.But Russian media on Monday has quoted some new wide-ranging remarks by Putin on the status of Ukraine's Kursk incursion and efforts to force the invaders back across the border. He gave the remarks to a group of students just before traveling to Mongolia. The offensive is nearing one month and clearly dealt a surprise blow, but without changing anything fundamental concerning frontlines in Ukraine's east (the Donbass).Putin in the fresh remarks focused on progress in the Donbass, stating "The Russian armed forces are taking control of territories not by 200, 300 meters at a time, but by square kilometers." He emphasized this is a rapid pace not seen in a "long time".The Kremlin has pointed out that the Kursk incursion is happening more out of desperation than anything strategically impacting the battle space.Putin said that Kiev is inevitably doomed to failure in its cross-border attacks, and that Russian forces will "deal with the Ukrainian bandits" who have breached the border in order in efforts to destabilize the nation's security.Putin also described his view that once Kursk fails for Ukraine, and as its forces are getting beaten back in Donbass at a rapid pace, Kiev will soon realize it must negotiate - something Putin said Moscow has never refused to do. But he noted the Zelensky has declared martial law and refused to hold a national election. But it remains that—"The current authorities are clearly not ready for this, they have little chance of being re-elected," Putin said."That is why they are not interested in ending the fighting, that is why they tried to carry out this provocation in Kursk Region, and before when they tried to carry out the same operation in Belgorod Region."He stressed that regardless Russia will continue to protect its people in Donbass as "our common future, the future of Russia. He explained that Russia "cannot allow hostile structures to be created right next to us that hatch aggressive plans against our country and constantly try to destabilize the Russian Federation."
Dozens killed, scores wounded in Russian strike on Ukraine's Poltava: Kiev --Two ballistic missiles blasted a military training facility and a nearby hospital in Ukraine, killing at least 50 people and wounding more than 200 others, Ukrainian officials have said, in one of the deadliest Russian strikes since the war began. The strike hit the central-eastern city of Poltava, the capital of the region of the same name, partially destroying a building used by the Poltava Military Institute of Communications, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved," Zelenskyy said in a video posted on his Telegram channel. He said he ordered “a full and prompt investigation." Earlier, Ukraine's Defence Ministry said the strikes partially destroyed one of the institute's buildings. "The time interval between the alarm and the arrival of the deadly missiles was so short that it caught people in the middle of evacuating to the bomb shelter," the ministry said. Rescuers were still at work after saving 25 people, including 11 trapped under the rubble, according to the ministry. Russian military bloggers had said that the strike targeted an outdoor ceremony. Ukrainian MP Maria Bezugla, who regularly criticises Ukraine's military leadership, blamed high-ranking officials for endangering soldiers by allowing such events. "These tragedies keep repeating themselves. When will it stop?" she posted on Telegram. Zelenskyy ordered a prompt investigation into the circumstances of the strike and called for more air defence equipment from Ukraine's Western partners.
At Least 51 Killed in Russian Missile Strike on Ukrainian Military School - Two Russian ballistic missiles hit a Ukrainian military institute in the central Ukrainian city of Poltava, killing at least 51 and wounding 235, Reuters reported on Tuesday.The attack is being reported as the single deadliest strike in Ukraine of the year. Russia has stepped up its missile and drone attacks across Ukraine in response to the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, which is being carried out with US weapons and Western intelligence.Ukrainian officials told AP that the strike on the military institute also hit a nearby hospital. So far, Russia has not commented on the attack, but it has been reported by Russian media.Vladimir Rogov, chairman of a pro-Russia movement in Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia, said Russian forces delivered the missile strike.“It was this manpower [of the military school] that was hit by a missile strike. It happened at the moment when they all gathered for their daily routine, when initially there were over half a thousand servicemen. The enemy’s losses amount to hundreds of people,” Rogov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukraine will hold seized Russia land indefinitely - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Kyiv intends to indefinitely hold theRussian land it seized in its surprise incursion last month.“We don’t need their land. We don’t want to bring our Ukrainian way of life there,” he told NBC News in a translated interview.The Ukrainian leader said “hold[ing]” the territory is vital to his “victory plan” to end the war, which has stretched more than 2-and-a-half years since Russia invaded Ukraine, per NBC News’s translation.It has been nearly a month since Ukrainian troops launched a surprise attack into the western Kursk region in Russia on Aug. 6. Since then, an estimated 180,000 people have been evacuated from the Kursk region, and Ukraine has captured about 450 square miles of Russian territory, marking the first time the nation’s sovereignty has been violated since World War II.More than 100 Russian soldiers were captured as prisoners of war, some of whom were later swapped with Russia for Ukranian prisoners, the Associated Press reported.Zelensky told NBC News the Aug. 6 mission was a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Russian forces from establishing a buffer zone along Ukraine’s border. He declined to say whether Ukraine is planning to attempt to take more Russian land.“I will not tell, I’m sorry,” he said, per NBC. “With all respect, I can’t speak about it. I think the success is very close to surprise.”The incursion forced Russia to divert some troops from parts of eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region, according to Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief. He claimed an estimated 30,000 Russian troops were moved to the Kursk area, though The Hill cannot independently verify that number.Zelensky last week said he is planning to eventually present a peace plan to President Biden and current White House candidates, Vice President Harris and former President Trump. This plan is four stages, he said, with the first being the incursion into the Kursk region.Zelensky said he plans to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month, during which he plans to meet with Biden and present the plan. He will also share with Harris and Trump, given the uncertainty of who will win the 2024 election, he added.
Putin says Ukraine’s incursion failed; claims he supports Harris in U.S. election, citing her ‘infectious’ laugh - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Ukraine’s gamble to seize his country's territory has backfired by boosting his own military's advance, a boast he paired with a teasing claim of support for Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming U.S. election. Speaking at an economic forum in the far-eastern city of Vladivostok on Thursday, he said it was the “sacred duty” of the Russian army to do everything to “throw the enemy out” of the border region of Kursk and protect its citizens after last month's stunning assault.Yet, Putin also said that Moscow's main goal remained capturing the Donbas region, Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland where Russian troops have been pushing forward for months. The goal of the Kursk operation was to make Russia “nervous and fidgety,” Putin said, forcing Moscow to transfer troops from key areas of the battlefield and stop its advance, particularly in the Donbas — composed of the neighboring Donetsk and Luhansk regions.“Were they successful?” Putin asked rhetorically about Ukraine's offensive. “No. The enemy has failed.”In fact, the Russian army had “stabilized the situation” and started to gradually “squeeze out” the Ukrainians from border areas, he said, while his troops in the Donbas were now advancing not by hundreds of meters but “square kilometers.”Putin's ebullient mood matched Ukraine's own confidence with developments on the battlefield, after a cross-border assault that turned the tables on the Kremlin.Kyiv claims it’s very much still in control of the nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory and 100 settlements it has seized there. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC News in an exclusive interview earlier this week that he plans to hold this land for as long as needed to end the war.But Putin suggested he was comfortable with the events of the past month.“Having transferred into our border regions its rather large and well-prepared units, the enemy has weakened itself in the key areas and our troops have accelerated our offensive operations,” he said.Ukraine's manpower struggles mean it will soon have to resort to recruiting young people, he claimed — like Nazi Germany did during World War II with its youth force, known as Hitlerjugend.“I sometimes get the impression that those who lead Ukraine are some kind of aliens or foreigners,” Putin added. “The next step is to call on students and so on, to completely bleed the country out,” he said. “I repeat once again, it seems that these are not their people.”Asked about the upcoming U.S. election, Putin said it was ultimately “the choice of the American people” but claimed that Russia backed Harris, the Democratic nominee.His tongue-in-cheek intervention comes less than 24 hours after the Justice, State and Treasury departments announced sanctions and criminal charges in what the Biden administration said were Russian government-sponsored attempts to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the November vote.“I told you, our favorite, if I may say so, was the current president, Mr. Biden,” Putin said with a smirk on his face. “He was removed from the race, but he advised all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. So we will do it as well, we will root for her,” he said, to applause from the audience. “Secondly, she has such an expressive and infectious laugh that it means she is doing well,” Putin said, speaking of Harris.“And if she is doing well, then … Trump introduced so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia, like no other president had ever introduced before him. And if Ms. Harris is doing well, perhaps she will refrain from doing anything like that,” he said.
Ukraine’s gamble against Russia risks becoming blunder - The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk region has so far failed to achieve one of its main objectives: diverting Russian troops from the front lines of eastern Ukraine in a bid to reshape the battlefield. Ukraine’s surprise August incursion has achieved other goals, including dealing a blow to Russia’s image of strength, destroying military assets and taking territory and prisoners for negotiating leverage. But the failure of the more crucial goal to divert troops has opened the door to criticism of Kyiv’s military gamble, especially as Russia makes advances along the war’s 600-mile eastern front line. Russian forces have continued pounding away in Ukraine, taking vast swaths of territory in the past month and closing in on the key rail junction town of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who just weeks ago was expressing frustration with the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, touted his military’s progress while visiting a school. “The enemy did not achieve the main task that they set themselves: to stop our offensive in the Donbas,” he said. “We have not had such a pace of offensive in the Donbas for a long time.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued the Kursk offensive is a key part of Kyiv’s strategy and would be included in a proposal for winning the war that he plans to present to the United States this month. Zelensky said in a Sunday video address that repeated Russian strikes on cities across Ukraine has “proved the correctness of our tactics, particularly in Kursk.” “We must push the war back to where it came from, into Russia,” he said. “And not just in the border areas. The terrorist state must feel what war truly is.” But some Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have publicly questioned the Kursk offensive at a time when Russia’s army is using its mass to press forward across the front lines, and particularly in Donetsk. Moscow is aiming to take the rest of the region, along with the neighboring Luhansk province, to cement control in the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Mariana Bezuhla, a Ukrainian member of Parliament, said Ukrainian commanders have placed “zombie squads” and inexperienced troops to defend Pokrovsk. “Now we have further consequences,” she wrote last week on Facebook. “Human lives and territories.” Capturing Pokrovsk would help Russian forces by severing a crucial supply line that Ukraine uses to defend its troops on the front line. It would also help them advance further into Donetsk and threaten Ukrainian positions in southeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have ordered mass evacuations in recent days from Pokrovsk, which had a prewar population of some 60,000, with Russian forces just a few miles from the town. George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Kursk operation was still in its early stages but “looks like it’s heading toward a failure.” “The Russians have not diverted significant numbers of forces from the front lines in Ukraine. If anything, they’ve stepped on the accelerator pedal,” he said. “There seems to be a great deal of skepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish, and I think growing concerns that it was a blunder.”
Chinese, Philippine Vessels Collide Near Sabina Shoal for Third Time - Chinese and Philippine vessels collided near Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea on August 31st, marking at least the third collision between the two coast guards near the disputed reef in recent weeks.Sabina Shoal is about 80 miles west of the Philippine island province of Palawan and is claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan.As usual, the two sides trade blame for the latest incident. Chinese Coast Guard spokesman Liu Dejun said a Philippine vessel “deliberately collided” with a Chinese Coast Guard ship “in an unprofessional and dangerous manner.”The Philippine side said that the Chinese ship intentionally rammed the Philippine vessel, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, three times. Tensions have been high near Sabina Shoal since Manila anchored the Teresa Magbanua in the area over claims that China was planning to build a permanent structure on the shoal to assert its claims.The Philippine Coast Guard said it would not move the vessel “despite the harassment, the bullying activities and escalatory action of the Chinese Coast Guard.”In response to the collision, the US reaffirmed its commitment to defend the Philippines in the South China Sea. “The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” the State Department said.
China’s bulging commodity stockpiles show depth of economic woes Inventories of key raw materials are piling up in China, evidence that economic activity remains too feeble to clear a surplus that’s crushing prices from steel to soybeans. The government’s growth target for the year looks increasingly out of reach, an unwelcome development for the drillers, miners and farmers that supply the world’s biggest importer of commodities. The blowout in stockpiles might suggest that some traders were caught out by the economy’s poor performance since the end of the pandemic. Others may have underestimated the extent of China’s pivot from the old economy to the new. But the stockpiling is also testimony to the premium placed by Beijing on making sure its factories and citizens never run short. Even when its economy is hot, China houses outsized quantities of raw materials. It holds more than 90% of the world’s visible copper inventories, nearly a quarter of the world’s crude oil, and over half of staple crops like corn and wheat, according to research from JPMorgan Chase & Co. So, while consumption and industrial activity are surely weak, China’s state-owned importers may be not be too fussed if they’ve mistimed their purchases, given their mission to guarantee that the country’s reserves are sufficient come what may. The power-shortage scares of 2021 and 2022 drew renewed scrutiny of China’s energy security, especially around the availability of its mainstay fuel — coal. Beijing’s response was to lift production and imports to record levels. But those efforts have coincided with subdued industrial demand, and a dramatic surge in clean energy generation that now meets almost all of the country’s growth in consumption. The upshot is that coal inventories rose to a unprecedented 635 million tons at the end of June, from less than 90 million in late 2021, according to an estimate from data provider China Coal Resource. China’s oil market is facing similar issues with a weak economy, rising domestic production, and a long-term decline in demand as decarbonization gathers pace. Refiners have been forced to cut their cloth accordingly by reducing operating rates. Imports have dwindled. Although onshore crude inventories swelled to a 10-month high of more than 1 billion barrels in July, they’re still below last year’s summer peak, according to Vortexa Ltd. That could signal even fewer imports if firms are taking a cautious approach by drawing on ample supplies to meet any seasonal upturn in demand in the fall. “Given the uncertain demand outlook, refineries may choose to destock commercial tanks rather than increase buying, if they need to raise runs as demand picks up seasonally,” said Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. China’s steel industry is in crisis as the country’s moribund property sector drags on construction demand. Port inventories of its key raw material, iron ore, have ballooned to their highest ever for the time of year. Margins on fashioning hot-rolled coil, used for car bodies and appliances, are near a record low, although there are tentative signs the market is recovering from its summer slump. But for mills to weather the downturn, they’ll probably have to keep cutting production, and that’ll mean even less demand for the steel-making ingredient.
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