September natural gas price hits four month low before expiry; oil supplies at a 30 week low, gasoline supplies at a 39 week low; imports of distillates at a six month high
US oil prices finished lower for the seventh time in eight weeks on OPEC+’s plan to increase output in October, and on a US draw from crude supplies that was less than expected...after falling 0.9% to $74.83 a barrel last week on news of peace talks in the Middle East and on a sharp downward revision to US jobs data, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery spiked dramatically as the markets opened on Monday morning on news of Israel launching strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Russia launching a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine, and the Libyan government in Benghazi declaring force majeure on all its oil facilities, and settled $2.59, or 3.5%, higher at $77.42 a barrel as the production cuts in Libya added to supply concerns stemming from the reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East….however, oil prices slipped in overseas trading on Tuesday on a collective pause among oil traders, who remained resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the Fed is going to cut interest rates, and settled down $1.89, or 2.3%, to $75.53 a barrel in New York on worries that slower economic growth in the U.S. and China could reduce demand for energy ..oil prices rebounded in overseas markets on Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a sizable drawdown of US crude inventories, but reversed and headed lower in New York after the EIA reported a smaller than expected draw from US crude supplies, and settled $1.01 lower at $74.52 a barrel as recent Chinese data pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners….oil prices extended those losses in early Asian trading Thursday after Iran said Yemen's Houthi rebels had agreed to allow rescue ships to assist a Greek-oil tanker that remained ablaze in the Red Sea "in consideration of humanitarian and environmental concerns", but turned higher on renewed worries about potential disruptions to Libyan oil supplies, then rose during the New York session to settle $1.39 higher at $75.91 a barrel as concerns over Libya’s oil output and Iraqi plans to lower output raised fears of tighter global supplies…oil prices rose overseas early Friday on reports of an Iranian production cut and after the US revised its GDP higher, but pulled back sharply on a report that OPEC and allied producers would go ahead with their planned output increase in October, and settled $2.36 lower at $73.55 a barrel, thus finishing down 1.7% for the week, and down by 3.6% for the month of August...
meanwhile, natural gas prices appeared to end higher this week, but that was due to a switch to quoting the higher priced October contract, as both contracts that traded as the front month during the week ended lower…after falling 4.8% to $2.022 per mmBTU last week on a bearish storage report and a shift to milder temperature forecasts, the price of the contract for natural gas for September delivery opened four cents lower Monday with autumn temperatures on the horizon and storage levels elevated, and fell 6.6 cents, or 3.3% over the session to settle at a three week low of $1.956 per mmBTU on forecasts for lower demand next week than had been expected… September natural gas opened lower again on Tuesday and slid throughout the session amid healthy production and forecasts for comfortable temperatures, and settled 5.2 cents lower at a four-month low of $1.904 per mmBTU on forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected…the September natural gas contract opened a penny lower on its last day of trading Wednesday, but posted a solid recovery effort throughout the session, as traders squared their positions ahead of the settlement, which was 2.6 cents higher at $1.930 per mmBTU, while the more actively traded contract for October natural gas settled 4.1 cents higher at $2.097 per mmBTU, as relatively low gas prices in recent weeks prompted power generators to burn more gas and less coal to produce electricity…with markets now quoting the contract price of natural gas for October delivery as the front month, natural gas prices opened 4 cents lower on Thursday, but recovered to log a steady ascent following the storage report’s release, as bullish traders pinned their hopes on September cooling demand, and October gas settled 4.0 cents higher at $2.137 per mmBTU on some bullish implications from the latest storage data and the potential for lingering strong demand on the possibility that hot weather may continue through September….natural gas traded in a narrow range through early afternoon on Friday, as traders digested the favorable storage data, choppy production and export estimates, and an uneven weather outlook, and settled a penny lower at $2.127 per mmBTU, weakened by expected cooler weather as the first official month of autumn began….while the quoted price for natural gas finished 5.2% higher, the September contract expired 4.5% lower than the prior week’s settlement, while the October natural gas contract, which had finished the prior Friday at $2.180 per mmBTU, finished the week 2.4% lower…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending August 23rd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 35 billion cubic feet to 3,334 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 228 billion cubic feet, or 7.3% above the 3,106 billion cubic feet that were in storage on August 23rd of last year, and 361 billion cubic feet, or 12.1% more than the five-year average of 2,973 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 23rd of August over the most recent five years…the 35 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was less than the 39 billion cubic foot addition to storage that markets were expecting before the report, but more than the 28 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in August of 2023, while less the average 43 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same midsummer week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 23rd indicated that due to a decrease in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for and an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the eighth time in nine weeks, and for the 21st time in the past 37 weeks, as a decrease in our oil exports was offset by an increase in our oil refining and a decrease in our oil imports...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 92,000 barrels per day to 6,560,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 366,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 374,000 barrels per day to 3,671,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,889,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending August 23rd, 282,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 517,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 100,000 barrels per day lower at 13,300,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,706,000 barrels per day during the August 23rd reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,864,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 23rd, an average of 175,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 15,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending August 23rd averaged a rounded 143,000 barrels per day fewer than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +143,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… Moreover, since 410,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 554,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, making the week over week changes we have just cited useless…. However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” demand, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)
This week’s net average 15,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 121,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 106,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the thirty-eighth SPR increase in the past forty-five weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the prior 39 months… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,430,000 barrels per day last week, which was 6.1% less than the 6,847,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day lower at 13,300,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 100,000 barrels per day lower at 12,900,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 9,000 barrels per day lower at 400,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did last week….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 37.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 93.3% of their capacity while processing those 16,864,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 23rd, up from their 92.3% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still a bit below normal utilization for mid-summer… the 16,864,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.6% more than the 16,603,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending August 25th of 2023, but 3.1% less than the 17,408,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending August 23rd, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic normal 95.2% for late August…
Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was lower, decreasing by 156,000 barrels per day to 9,612,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 23rd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 46,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 3.9% less than the 10,005,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending August 18th of last year, and was 9.8% less than the gasoline production of 10,660,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending August 23rd, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 5,002,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 123,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after eighteen production increases in the past twenty-six weeks, our distillates output was 0.4% less than the 5,023,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending August 25th of 2023, and 3.7% less than the 5,193,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending August 23rd, 2019…
With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 20h time in thirty weeks, decreasing by 2,203,000 barrels to a 39 week low of 218,394,000 barrels during the week ending August 23rd,, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,606,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell again this week even though our imports of gasoline rose by 336,000 barrels per day to 531,000 barrels per day, because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 114,000 barrels per day to 9,307,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 86,000 barrels per day to 817,000 barrels per day.…Even after twenty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 0.5% above last August 25th’s gasoline inventories of 217,412,000 barrels, but were still about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 14th time in thirty-two weeks, increasing by 275,000 barrels to 123,086,000 barrels over the week ending August 23rd, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,312,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies managed to increase this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 246,000 barrels per day to 3,822,000 barrels per day because our exports of distillates fell by 492,000 barrels per day to 1,361,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 157,000 barrels per day to a six month high of 220,000 barrels per day ...After 18 inventory withdrawals over the past 32 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 4.4% above the 117,923,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on August 25th of 2023, but they are still about 10% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with only modest, offsetting changes in documented supply and demand, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 15th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time in the past year, decreasing by 846,000 barrels over the week, from 426,029,000 barrels on August 16th to a 30 week low of 425,183,000 barrels on August 23rd, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 4,649,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still more than 27% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of August over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this August 23rd were 0.5% more than the 422,944,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on August 25th of 2023, and 1.6% more than the 418,346,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on August 26th of 2022, while virtually unchanged from the 425,395,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on August 27th of 2021…
This Week’s Rig Count
In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of August 30th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (August 23rd) and this week’s (August 30th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s August 23rd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 1st of September, 2023…
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Ohio Supreme Court clears way for NEXUS settlement payments to begin, Stark to get $5.6 million --The Ohio Supreme Court has cleared the way for a 2022 settlement agreement between Ohio's tax commissioner and the owners of the NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline to take effect.The court's recent 4-3 decision determined the Lorain County auditor could not appeal the property tax valuation of the NEXUS pipeline that was set by a 2022 settlement agreement between Ohio’s tax commissioner and the pipeline’s owners, Detroit-based DT Midstream and Enbridge, a Canadian company.The natural gas transmission pipeline crosses 13 counties – Stark, Columbiana, Erie, Fulton, Henry, Huron, Lorain, Lucas, Medina, Sandusky, Summit, Wayne and Wood – and 37 school districts in northern Ohio."Nexus is pleased by the decision which supports the finality of the settlement agreement, providing additional revenue and certainty to local school districts," wrote NEXUS spokesperson Kristen Henson in a statement. Lorain County Auditor Craig Snodgrass had objected to the tax commissioner’s settlement, which set the taxable value of Ohio’s portion of the 256-mile interstate NEXUS pipeline at $950 million for 2019. The subsequent years’ values would be set by taking the 2019 valuation and subtracting for depreciation. Snodgrass sought to enforce the commissioner’s 2019 assessment that set the pipeline’s value at more than $1.4 billion before settlement negotiations began. He appealed to the Ohio Supreme Court when the Ohio Board of Tax Appeals denied his request.Justices Patrick DeWine, Michael Donnelly, Jennifer Brunner and Joseph Deters ruled that county auditors do have a statutory right to appeal tax valuations, but that right does not allow county auditors to void a settlement approved by the tax commissioner who is using his or her authority to compromise tax claims.Stark County Auditor Alan Harold supports moving forward with the settlement. “This decision by the Ohio Supreme Court reflects what was sought by the majority of county auditors and school districts involved,” Harold said. “We patiently wait its finality, subject to any additional rights of reconsideration by the Lorain County auditor.”Harold, along with seven other county auditors and two school districts, filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court asking the court to uphold the settlement agreement reached by the tax commissioner and NEXUS owners.They said the Lorain County auditor’s appeal has significantly impacted the other 12 counties, as well as the school districts and other local governments located along the pipeline, because it has delayed the payment of millions of dollars in property-tax distributions.While NEXUS’ valuation was under review, its owners paid taxes based on the value they believed the pipe was worth, not the state’s assigned taxable value, as they were permitted to do. The payments are the difference between the amount the pipeline owners have paid and the amount they should have paid under the settlement terms. The county auditors told the supreme court that the delay in payments has halted school construction projects and led to budget deficits. NEXUS owners have paid $23.4 million in property taxes to Stark County and the taxing entities in Washington, Nimishillen, Marlboro and Lake townships, according to the county auditor’s office.If the court’s decision stands, Stark County would receive an estimated $5.6 million in additional payments from NEXUS owners to cover the five years' worth of payments where NEXUS was paying only the amount it thought the pipeline was worth.The combined amount still is far less than the projected $41.7 million that Stark County initially expected to receive over the first five years of the pipeline’s operation.
Ohio Says It Can Pursue Rover Pipeline's Builders for Spills - Bloomberg Law News -
- State asks appeals court to revive environmental lawsuit
- Companies say Ohio waived claims and that federal law wins out
Ohio should have another chance to prove it can hold the builders of an interstate natural gas pipeline responsible for discharging millions of gallons of diesel fuel-laced drilling fluids into wetlands, an attorney for the state told an appeals court Tuesday.
Fracking is being forced onto some Ohio property owners' land: Here's why it's legal -- Jill Hunkler is a seventh-generation Ohio Valley resident who says her home was affected by fracking well unitization. Hunkler's three-acre property at the headwaters of the Captina Creek Watershed was one of hundreds in the area that she said became a magnet for fracking. Her property sits on the Utica and Marcellus Shales in the Appalachian Basin, geologic formations known to hold large reserves of oil and natural gas. As of April 2024, the Marcellus Shale contained about 120 million barrels of oil, while the Utica Shale contained 2.3 million barrels, according to the United States Geological Survey. There are 1,625 fracking wells in Belmont Country this year, which marks a 25% increase from 2023, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), which oversees unitization orders in the state. Hunkler said when oil and gas representatives called "landmen" came knocking on her door, calling her home and sending repeated notices, she learned of the state's unitization laws. The fate of her land was largely out of her hands, she said. "To be perfectly honest, it makes me cry even now," Hunkler said. Unitization is the consolidation of multiple land parcels into a single operational unit for fracking, according to ODNR. Because it's multiple properties, 65% of property owners in a project area must sign an application to lease their property for drilling before going forward, according to ODNR. This leaves a population of dissenting or "non-participatory" landowners forced into fracking in the area, even if it's not on their property. Unitization has been legal in Ohio since 1965, however, the last decade has seen unitization orders surge to meet fracking demands.The ODNR enacted 112 unitization orders in 2022 and nearly 100 in 2023, according to ODNR records. Before 2021, which saw 73 unitization orders, ODNR enacted less than 50 orders per year between 2012 and 2020, according to records. Proponents believe fracking brings jobs back to the region, which historically relied on coal and steel manufacturing, and gives residents the opportunity to make passive income by leasing land."Natural gas production has been tremendously profitable for Ohio," state Sen. George Lang and two researchers said in a 2023 press release posted on the Ohio Senate website. "The shale revolution has been the greatest driver of the state's economic progress since the late 1990s. Ohio now ranks sixth among states in natural gas production, exporting to our neighbors and the world."Ohio law states landowners must make "just and reasonable" compensation for leasing sites, which can vary based on location, under state law. In 2024, some local drillers reported paying landowners an average of $500 per acre, but lease bonus payments in southeast Ohio can range from $3,000–$6,000 per acre, according to McCleery Law Firm, which provides consultation and legal services to landowners considering entering, or impacted by, a leasing agreement. "It is also an area where landowners are chronically exploited," the firm says in their "Landowner's Guide." "This is because landmen usually offer significantly less per acre if they suspect you lack knowledge of the market. Without knowledge of fair market value, an increase of two thousand dollars per acre might seem advantageous, when in reality, the starting offer was simply egregiously low," the firm claims.Researchers found that companies used persistent and personal strategies to overcome landowner reluctance, such as repeated in-person visits, calls and in some cases, contacting their family members and neighbors. "When their calls go unanswered, they send letters. When those are returned with 'REFUSED' handwritten across them, landmen drive to her house. When she refuses to answer the door, they speak to her neighbours and family members," according to the study.When property owners refused all requests, the study found widespread use of compulsory unitization."In roughly 40% of the wells drilled in Ohio, compulsory unitization applications were used because voluntary consent from landowners was not obtained," according to the study. In a statement to ABC News, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources said the role of the agency is "to follow and administer the law, as written." "The Division does not have jurisdiction to regulate landmen," ODNR said. "People that don't live in southeast Ohio have no concept of what it's like," Randi Pokladnik, a lifelong resident of the Ohio River Valley and retired research chemist, told ABC News about fracking in the area."It sounds like a jet engine in the middle of the night and you can smell the emissions. It's a constant barrage of sand trucks and fracking trucks with brine in them," Pokladnik said.She unaffectionately calls the nightly traffic the "brine truck parade."Pokladnik and her husband own property in Tappan, Ohio, and despite denying leasing requests from oil and gas representatives for over a decade, in February, Pokladnik's property was "force pooled" to participate without their consent."It made me sick to my stomach when I first got the notice in the mail that they were going to be doing this," Pokladnik said."This is like the ultimate slap in the face for somebody who's an environmentalist," she added.
“Who’s gonna want to move here?” How fracking around Ohio’s Salt Fork State Park is changing area - Terri Sabo has a breathtaking view of Salt Fork State Park from her dining room window in Guernsey County. She and her husband Rick Sabo have lived in their ranch home since 1983 — three years after they moved to Cambridge from Canton. Terri loves the dark night skies the park provides, but more recently she sees the occasion flare from a fracking injection well about 14 miles away while standing on her front porch.“We thought we would always have beauty, but Cambridge is so different than the ’80s,” Sabo said. “I mean, it’s so industrialized now and every, every other pickup truck has an Oklahoma or Texas plate. And it’s, it’s very, very different than it used to be.” The presence of the oil and gas industry around Salt Fork and ongoing fracking have turned the Sabos into advocates trying to protect the land around Ohio’s largest state park. Well pads, injection wells and a couple of drilling rigs dot the area around Salt Fork and its winding roads. “I’m past the sadness,” Sabo said, as she drove around Salt Fork on a recent Friday morning. “I’m into acceptance now. And it’s gonna happen.” Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich signed a law allowing drilling companies to frack in state parks back in 2011. Under the law, potential drillers had to get permission from the newly created Oil and Gas Commission, but Kasich never appointed members to the commissions — effectively preventing anyone from drilling in parks. Then in 2022, an amendment to speed up the process for oil and gas companies to get a fracking lease in state parks was added to House Bill 507, which was originally written to reduce the number of poultry chicks that can be sold in lots from six to three. The bill (dubbed the “chicken bill”) made it to Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s desk and he signed the bill into law in January 2023. The law — which requires the Ohio Department of Natural Resources to allow fracking for natural gas in Ohio’s public lands and state parks — went into effect in April 2023. Within the same week DeWine signed the bill into law, the Sabos got a letter from Texas-based company Encino Energy asking to buy their mineral rights — which they still haven’t done. “You work all your life to build something and then they frack it,” Sabo said. Encino Energy, the largest oil producer and second-largest producer of gas in Ohio, did not respond to questions sent by the Ohio Capital Journal. There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions. During that same time period, there were 56 total incidents in Guernsey County (where Salt Fork is located), according to FracTracker.“When the activities first started moving into the town, we were concerned with explosions and exposures,” Sabo said. Encino Energy had five incidents during that time frame, and Washington County was the county with the most incidents in the state with 73, according to FracTracker. The Sabos first started coming to Salt Fork in the late 1960s and early 1970s, before they lived in Cambridge. Fracking in the area has brought increased truck traffic, new power lines, and additional cell towers. In particular, it has brought brine trucks and Halliburton trucks that haul fracking sand. “Who’s gonna want to move here?” Sabo said. “I mean, who’s gonna want to raise their kids here?”
Ohio senator’s company off the hook for $1.3M cleanup for leaking fracking fluid as commission dismisses appeal - cleveland.com– (from May) The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission dismissed an appeal Friday in a case involving whether to hand the $1.3 million bill to clean up leaked hydraulic fracturing wastewater to a company owned by a Republican state senator and former commissioner.State Sen. Brian Chavez, a Marietta Republican, owns Deeprock Disposal Solutions, which has two Noble County wells that store brine – the toxic, sometimes radioactive byproduct of fracking operations. Before his December appointment to the Ohio Senate, Chavez served on the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission for about 2.5 years and starting about five months after the leak was discovered.The leak was discovered when it surfaced at an oil and gas production well owned by another company, West Virginia-based Genesis Resources. On Jan. 24, 2021, brine at rates reaching 42 gallons per minute began spewing from Genesis’ production well, as reported by cleveland.com / The Plain Dealer.State workers and contractors spent two days plugging the leak. They had to remove 362,000 gallons of liquid from a nearby stream. About 450 fish, salamanders, frogs and other nearby animals died.Genesis maintains Chavez’s wells were the source of the brine and believes the water traveled from Chavez’s injection wells to Genesis’ production well. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources agreed in an order suspending Deeprock’s operations about two years after the blowout at the Genesis well. But ODNR stuck Genesis with the $1.3 million cleanup costs in January 2023. Genesis had appealed the ODNR matter to the commission in February 2023.In the four-page order allowing ODNR to dismiss the appeal on Friday, the commission noted a state law that says ODNR must order the owner of a well pay the actual documented cost of corrective actions when there’s an incident at the wellsite. In this case, the incident was at the Genesis production wellsite, even though the source of the brine was from the Deeprock injection well miles away. “In particular, the Commission recognizes that Genesis believes and alleges that the brine and other liquids that were released from the Gant Well originated from nearby-operating brine injection wells of which Genesis is not the owner,” the order states. “Assuming this fact to be true does not change the legality of the Chief’s Order or Genesis’ responsibility to comply with it. Whether any other entity may also have liability for the releases from the Gant Well does not eliminate or mitigate Genesis’ liability as established by the undisputed facts and the law applicable to the Chief’s Order.” Genesis’ well hasn’t produced oil or gas at least since 2012. Yet despite this, Genesis did not plug the well, which is the industry standard.
The Utica Shale Academy celebrates project completion - — State and local officials along with community members and staff of the Utica Shale Academy in Salineville came together Friday afternoon for a luncheon and ribbon cutting ceremony to celebrate the completion of the Connecting Communities Through Workforce Training Project.Speakers at the event included William Watson, superintendent, Utica Shale Academy; U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli; state Rep. Monica Robb Blasdel; state Sen. Al Cutrona; Julie Needs, director, Salem Area Sustainable Opportunity Development (SOD) Center; Cathy Hergenrother, Mahoning Valley Pathways HUB; and John Carey, director of the Office of Appalachia.Rulli and Blasdel both presented Watson with proclamations for the academy.Watson said The Governor’s Workforce of Appalachia had $500 million to spend in the Appalachian Region and they broke it into two categories, with a first and second round. Utica Shale Academy was one of four applicants in the first round and the first first-round applicant to reach completion and received $2.35 million which led to Utica Shale and the SOD Center creating training centers and partnering with Mahoning Valley Pathways HUB for certified health workers for a holistic approach to education.The Utica Shale Academy has been in Salineville for four years. Before that, they were tied with the Southern Local School District.According to Watkins the academy, which started in their current location with one building, now has four buildings and will soon be building a second welding facility next door to their outdoor welding lab.Rulli said The Utica Shale Academy is bringing back and protecting the American dream by making it easier for kids to get into the workforce and be trained and certified, which will benefit Ohio. He also noted that the local area has large companies, but the area doesn’t have people to staff them.Rulli also said that in a meeting in Washington D.C. where Columbiana Gas was present, Columbiana Gas said that they need to build a pipeline from this area to the Columbus area within 10 years and he questioned how they were going to build a gas line if they don’t have a workforce to do it. He told Watson they have the solution with the academy, and they were going to bridge a gap in Ohio that hasn’t happened before.
Why the Biden-Harris EPA Methane Rule is a Disaster for PA, PJM - Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, MDN brought you the news that two dozen states have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to place a temporary block on new EPA regulations that will put all coal plants out of business and block most (if not all) new gas-fired power plants from getting built (see States Asks U.S. Supreme Court to Emergency Block EPA Methane Reg). The EPA wants to force the U.S. oil and gas industry to cut methane emissions by using budget-busting new technologies and onerous (frequent) inspections (see Bidenistas Unleash Hellscape of U.S. Methane Regs at COP28). PA State Senator Greg Rothman published an excellent analysis of how the EPA’s new regs would negatively impact Pennsylvania and the PJM electric grid.
34 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 19 – 25 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of August 19 - 25, a total of 34 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica. The Keystone State (PA) had 16 new permits. PA's top recipient was Chesapeake Energy, with six permits in Bradford County. Coterra Energy was a close second, with five new permits issued in neighboring Susquehanna County. The Buckeye State (OH) received 13 new permits, with Encino Energy (EAP) receiving eight and Ascent Resources five. OH's permits were spread across Guernsey, Harrison, and Noble counties. Finally, the Mountain State (WV) received five new permits, all of them for Northeast Natural Energy in Monongalia County. ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | BUTLER COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | MONONGALIA COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | NORTHEAST NATURAL ENERGY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY
E&P Permitting Activity Showing Summer Slump in U.S. Natural Gas Plays - Permit approvals for U.S. onshore oil and gas drilling slowed in July versus June, dropping 8% to 1,538, according to new data compiled by Everus and Evercore ISI. The decline was driven by the Permian Basin, which saw approvals overall drop by 9% or 64 permits to 666. In the Appalachian Basin, the largest source of U.S. natural gas supply, permit approvals in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays totaled 162 in July, down from 171 in June. In the Haynesville Shale, the tally dipped to 26 from 29.
Analyzing Monthly New Permit Trends for PA, OH, WV Shale | Marcellus Drilling News -- We spotted an article on the always-excellent NGI website (the Daily Gas Price Index) that said exploration and production (E&P) permitting activity shows a "summer slump" in natural gas plays, including in the Marcellus/Utica. The information in the article is from data compiled by Enverus and Evercore ISI. So, we decided to review our weekly new permit reports for the M-U to see if our data shows a slump over the past three months. Our data shows no slump in permitting but rather the opposite.
WV Judge Blocks Class Action in Diversified Old Wells Lawsuit - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN has an exclusive update on a lawsuit by several West Virginia surface landowners who are suing Diversified Energy over Diversified’s failure to plug their unproducing conventional wells. At the prompting of the Sierra Club, the landowners attempted to turn the lawsuit into a class action. Yesterday, a federal judge for the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of WV struck down the class action request, meaning a couple of surface owners from the original lawsuit can proceed with their lawsuit. The outcome won’t affect anyone else. However, a second related case and a second request for a class action are still alive.
Jay-Bee Paying $42M to Settle WV Post-Production Deduction Lawsuit -Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a lawsuit that flew under our radar — until now. Several landowners in West Virginia sued Jay-Bee Oil & Gas, alleging “improper royalty deductions” were made from royalty checks for post-production work from 2010 to 2023. The landowners (their lawyers) convinced a court to turn the lawsuit into a class action. Jay-Bee denies the claims in the lawsuit but has agreed to settle the dispute to avoid additional litigation by paying $42.6 million into a settlement fund established to disburse payments to participating class members.
West Virginia NatGas Production Hits New Highs with MVP Startup | Marcellus Drilling News --Earlier this month, MDN brought you the important news that just one month after the mighty Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) went online, natural gas production in the State of West Virginia increased more than 9% (see WV Marcellus Production Up 9.5% in One Month Thanks to MVP). We now have data for another full month of production since MVP's June 14 startup. What does the data show? The increase in WV production remains elevated.
Dominion Open House for New 45-Mile Pipeline in North Carolina -Marcellus Drilling News In February, MDN told you about Dominion Energy’s filing to build a new 45-mile pipeline to connect Equitrans’ (now EQT’s) MVP Southgate pipeline project with Duke Energy’s planned new natural gas power plants on Hyco Lake’s southern shore (see Dominion Energy Announces New 45-Mile Pipeline for North Carolina). As part of the process of building the pipeline, Dominion is holding a series of open houses to allow local residents to ask questions and view maps. A large crowd turned out Wednesday, August 21, at the Yanceyville (Caswell County, NC) open house.
US natgas prices slide 3% to 4-month low on less hot forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a four-month low on Tuesday on forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should cut the amount of gas power generators need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. Energy analysts also noted the tremendous oversupply of gas in storage has kept a lid on prices all year. There was still about 12% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though weekly builds, including a rare decline during one week in August, have been smaller than normal in 13 of the past 14 weeks. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.2 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $1.904 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 26.After dropping about 15% over the past six days, the front-month entered technically oversold territory for the first time since late July. It was also the first time the contract fell for six days in a row since March. Futures for October NGV24, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 2.1% to $2.09 per mmBtu.Producers increase and decrease output in reaction to prices, but it usually takes a few months for changes in drilling activity to show up in the production data.Average monthly spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana hit a 12-month high of $3.18 per mmBtu in January before dropping to a 44-month low of $1.72 in February and a 32-year low of $1.49 in March, according to Reuters and federal energy data.In reaction to that price plunge, producers cut average monthly output from 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February to 102.7 bcfd in March, 101.5 bcfd in April, and a 17-month low of 101.3 bcfd in May, according to federal energy data.Winter storms at the start of the year caused output to fall from a record 106.3 bcfd in December to 103.6 bcfd in January.As monthly Henry Hub spot prices increased to $1.60 per mmBtu in April, $2.12 in May, and $2.54 in June, some producers, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, started to increase drilling activities, boosting output to 101.0 bcfd in June and 103.4 bcfd in July.But with average spot Henry Hub prices back down to $2.08 per mmBtu in July and $2.01 so far in August, analysts said output would likely decline in coming months as some producers reduce drilling activities again.Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.4 bcfd so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July.Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly hotter than normal through Sept. 11. Even though the weather is hotter than normal, temperatures were still declining with the coming of autumn.LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 104.6 bcfd this week to 101.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 11.9 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
NGPL Maintenance Cuts Feed Gas to Sabine Pass LNG in Possible Demand Boost for Henry Hub --A force majeure on the Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America LLC (NGPL) has cut feed gas deliveries to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass LNG terminal through September, potentially increasing demand for natural gas from Henry Hub and Moss Bluff. NGPL cited an outage on a unit at a compressor station (CS) in Liberty County, TX, that required repairs. Work began on Aug. 20 and is expected to last through Sept. 30. This could have knock-on effects on Henry Hub and Moss Bluff, Wood Mackenzie analyst Nadeem Ahmed said. Beginning on the first day of the outage, eastbound capacity at CS 302 from segments 22 to 26 was cut by 75%, according to a notice on the NGPL electronic bulletin board. Eastbound flows, which were running at a maximum capacity of 1,200 MMcf/d, dropped on Aug. 20 to 900 MMcf/d at CS 302, NGPL said.
Freeport LNG Restarts After False Alarm – --Following a series of delays, Golden Pass LNG has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for a three-year extension to finish construction of the 18 million metric tons/year export project in Texas. Golden Pass, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, wants to extend the deadline from Nov. 30, 2026 to Nov. 30, 2029. The project needs more time because of delays caused by the bankruptcy of its lead construction contractor Zachry Industrial Inc., the transition to new lead contractor McDermott and “other possible delays…that may occur such as potential hurricane impacts, and for commissioning and startup activities,” the company stated.
Why Project Delays, Regulatory Hurdles May Not Hamper U.S. LNG Development — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub and Flow featuring Baker Botts LLP’s Jason Bennett and NGI’s Senior LNG Editor Jacob Dick as they discuss why demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to remain strong despite rising complications. U.S. LNG projects have seen a bevy of challenges this year, including rising costs, construction delays and an increasing number of regulatory hurdles. But what do today’s obstacles mean for tomorrow’s liquefied natural gas supply and demand? Bennett, department chair of global projects and co-chair of energy, reviews the near-term global natural gas market dynamics and domestic policies shaping the development of U.S. LNG export capacity.
Opponents, backers of Line 5 oil pipeline cap off public comment period - Public comment ends this week for a permit needed for a high-profile oil pipeline project in northern Wisconsin. Opponents, including tribal voices, as well as supporters, have laid out recent organizing efforts ahead of an application decision. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will eventually decide on an environmental permit sought by Canadian firm Enbridge to re-route a section of its Line 5 pipeline around the Bad River Reservation. Tribal leaders have been engaged in a legal fight with the company over its existing line, which currently covers 12 miles of reservation land.Gussie Lord, Earthjustice managing attorney of the Tribal Partnerships Program, represents the tribe and says the new plan fails to ease concerns."We know that this reroute is not a solution. It's a false solution to the dangers of the current pipeline. In fact, it really extends the dangers of the pipeline and increases the threat of a devastating oil spill, both to the Bad River Reservation's watershed and Lake Superior watershed," Lord explained. Her group and other environmental organizations say more than 150,000 comments are being submitted that reflect these concerns. A separate coalition of labor, business and agricultural groups says it gathered roughly 14,000 signatures in support of the re-route. Ahead of public comment closing tomorrow, the coalition sent a letter arguing the construction would be a big economic win, with the new line aiding regional propane supplies.Some supporters tout the potential jobs and related benefits. Jason Wilhite, activism team lead with the outdoor apparel company Patagonia, contends any major spill could harm water recreation and all the business activity it creates."Put simply, a rupture of the Line 5 pipeline would have a devastating impact on our regional economy," he explained.In an emailed statement, Enbridge said it's committed to extensive protective measures to minimize and mitigate project impacts. Tribal advocates say they are especially worried about the potential effect on wild rice beds. It's not clear when the Army Corps of Engineers will decide on the application. Other permits are needed for the proposed re-route.Permian Producers Struggle With Negative Gas Prices | OilPrice.com --While oil and gas producers in the Permian Basin are undoubtedly concerned about gas prices, their response to economic forces, particularly in the gas market, has been limited. Oil remains the dominant revenue stream in the Permian, leading operators to prioritize oil operations that create an abundance of associated natural gas. Gas prices at the Waha Hub have suffered greatly in 2024 as gas production continually tests available outbound capacity. Permian producers often find themselves in a constant race to expand takeaway capacity as rising supply strains existing egress options, necessitating new pipelines or expansions to manage the increased production. The chart above illustrates historical Waha basis prices alongside the forward curve. While this static view provides insight, it doesn't capture the evolution of the curve over time, which is better represented in the seasonal strips chart below. For this, we can focus attention to the chart below that shows select seasonal strips over time. Note the ongoing decline in forward pricing for Waha, reflecting market expectations of persistent egress challenges despite new pipeline additions. Since the start of 2024, forward strips have trended lower with the anticipation of continued egress issues despite new incoming pipe. Turning to more real-time price weakness. With producers operating at the very edge of the basin’s available takeaway capacity, Waha gas prices have frequently settled in negative territory for both the prompt-month and cash markets. Waha cash market behavior, shown below, highlights how unfavorable pricing has been up to this point in 2024. As of this writing, Waha spot prices have settled negative on 109 out of the 235 days (including weekend pricing) so far in 2024, representing a staggering 47% of the time! It all comes down to takeaway capacity versus supply. As we sit here today, the modeled Permian supply is straining the daily available takeaway capacity. The graph below shows that help is on the way in the near term in the form of the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn pipeline (brown stacked area). This large greenfield pipeline provides the much-needed takeaway relief that is causing such acute weakness at Waha. Opinions differ on how quickly the Matterhorn pipeline will reach capacity, with some suggesting it could be filled by next spring. This capacity won't necessarily handle all new gas; instead, existing supply may be rerouted from less desirable corridors, like West Texas to Midcontinent. The extent of "new" gas entering the market in the next three to six months post-Matterhorn will be crucial. While the Matterhorn pipeline offers some relief, it may be short-lived. There is still significant weakness in the Waha forward curve for Cal 2025 and Cal 2026. The front of the curve at nearly -$3.00/MMBtu aligns with our earlier discussion, but the discounts of around -$1.25 to -$1.29 for Cal 2025 and Cal 2026 raise questions. A weak Cal 2026 is understandable, given the next major pipeline isn't due until late 2026, WhiteWater’s Blackcomb pipeline. However, Cal 2025 being similarly discounted might suggest severe 2024 weakness is dragging it down, or traders are highly bullish on Permian supply, expecting egress to fill sooner rather than later. In any case, Permian gas prices face an uphill battle unless oil prices shift significantly. The current forward curve suggests Waha gas prices are likely to remain volatile and weak, reflecting the ongoing challenge of balancing production growth with infrastructure development in the Permian Basin.
Exxon Puts Up Permian Assets for Sale - Exxon is looking to sell some conventional oil and gas assets in the Permian, Bloomberg hasreported, with the proceeds from the potential sale seen at around $1 billion.In a written response to the publication’s questions, Exxon said it was “exploring market interest for select conventional assets in West Texas and South East New Mexico,” adding that “This decision is consistent with our strategy to continually evaluate our portfolio.”Bloomberg also quoted unnamed sources as saying the assets to be divested included wells in the Central Basin of the Permian, where production was not particularly high but it was stable. The divestment was in line with Exxon’s strengthened focus on shale oil and gas development.The biggest step in this direction that Exxon took recently was the $60-billion takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources, completed earlier this year. The completion of the megadeal significantly bolstered Exxon's presence in the prolific Permian Basin. This strategic move effectively doubled Exxon's footprint in the region, solidifying its position as a dominant player in one of the most productive parts of the shale patch.The acquisition opens to Exxon access to over 1.4 million net acres in the Delaware and Midland basins within the Permian formation. According to the company’s projections, the combined entity is poised for a substantial surge in production to as much as 1.3 million bpd. Looking ahead, Exxon anticipates further growth, with production forecast to reach an impressive 2 million bpd by 2027, underscoring the long-term strategic value of this acquisition.Meanwhile, Exxon eyes boosting its total oil output to some 4.3 million barrels daily this year, which would be the highest in ten years, Bloomberg noted in its report on the divestment plans for the conventional Permian wells. Pioneer’s acquisition will be a major contributor to this higher output.
ExxonMobil: Oil Demand Will be Over 100 Million Bpd in 2050 -As the rivalry over global oil demand projections continues to intensify, supergiant Exxon Mobil on Monday chimed in to forecast that crude demand will continue to be over 100 million barrels per day through 2050, contradicting other forecasts that come in much lower, Reuters reported. The forecast from Exxon, which is planning to see output of 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas per day this year, is at odds with other forecasts, both among its peers and among analysts. Exxon has also estimated that in 2050, 67% of the global energy mix will be fossil fuels, down from 68% last year.Exxon’s full-year 2024 projected output represents 30% more than peer Chevron’s, according to Reuters, and the company’s demand projection is 25% greater than BP’s released in July, predicting that global oil demand will peak next year at around 102 million bpd, while wind and solar capacity will continue along their fast growth trajectory. BP, which is planning to slash production to around 2 million bpd by 2030, sees oil consumption gradually declining over the second half of the outlook to around 75 million bpd in 2050. The drop is, however, much more pronounced in Net Zero, with demand falling to just 25 million-30 million bpd by 2050.Late last week, Morgan Stanley revised its oil price forecast downward to reflect expectations of more OPEC and non-OPEC supply coupled with indications of weakening demand. Morgan Stanley lowered its global oil demand growth estimate from 1.2 million bpd to 1.1 million bpd for this year, saying it anticipates a tight Q3, with stabilization in Q4 and potentially a surplus by 2025. The firm also cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel, down from $85, and now expects prices to gradually decline to $75 per barrel by the end of 2025, slightly lower than their previous estimate of $76.
Marathon Oil Shareholders Approve Megadeal Conoco Acquisition --Shareholders in Marathon Oil have approved a ~$16 billion acquisition by ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil said in a Thursday statement, with the deal expected to close in the fourth-quarter of this year, pending a Federal Trade Commission review, Reuters reports. Conoco and Marathon Oil struck their acquisition deal in May when Conoco agreed to take over the target company in a deal worth $22.5 billion, including the assumption of $5.4 billion in debt.Earlier this month, a Marathon Oil shareholder filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the ConocoPhillips acquisition, claiming that the price undervalued the company. Investor Martin Siegel alleged in his filing that the acquisition could deprive Marathon Oil shareholders of some $6 billion in company value. Siegel also accused the company’s management and its adviser Morgan Stanley of misrepresenting the deal with Conoco to shareholders when it sought their backing for the move.For Conoco, the deal would push its market value to over $150 billion, extending its lead as the largest independent producer, on the same level as the supermajors, though slightly ahead of BP and slightly behind Shell, according to analysis from Enervus Intelligence Research. ConocoPhillips “is leveraging its premium market valuation, which it shares with the majors, to strike a deal that will immediately boost its free cash flow profile and enhance its capital return program for investors,” Andrew Dittmar, a Director on the Enervus Intelligence team, said in a statement at the time. Conoco’s chief executive, Ryan Lance, said at the time of the deal's origins that “there are too many players. Scale matters, diversity matters, and we are going through a natural cycle of that in the business”.
Will Buffett Step in to Keep Occidental Afloat? -Shares of Occidental Petroleum have dropped below $56, raising questions about whether Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway will step in as it has in the past.Berkshire Hathaway, Occidental's largest shareholder with nearly a 30% stake, has previously purchased millions of shares whenever Occidental's price dipped below $60, a pattern that analysts have dubbed "the Berkshire put." But this time, the absence of such purchases is raising eyebrows.For the past month, Occidental has traded under $60, the longest stretch since January, when a similar dip prompted Berkshire to buy 4.3 million shares. Despite this, Berkshire has remained on the sidelines, leading some to speculate that Buffett may be satisfied with his current holdings. With regulatory approval to acquire up to 50% of Occidental, the door is open for future purchases, but the current pause could suggest a potential shift in strategy. Occidental's stock is down 12.3% over the last year, contrasting with the flat performance of the broader energy sector. The pressure intensified after CrownRock LP investors filed to sell 29.6 million shares that they acquired through Occidental's $12 billion purchase of the Texas-based oil producer.Historically, Buffett's buying sprees have buoyed Occidental's stock, but the current lull could signal a different approach. In addition to common shares, Berkshire holds warrants to purchase 83.5 million shares at $59.62 each and owns preferred stock in the company, indicating a long-term commitment. However, the market is watching closely to see if the Oracle of Omaha will continue to prop up Occidental's stock, or if the Berkshire put has reached its limit.
TotalEnergies Unit Fined for Trying to Manipulate Gasoline Futures Market --The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined a trading unit of French supermajor TotalEnergies for attempted manipulation of the gasoline futures market in 2018. The U.S. market regulator ordered TOTSA TotalEnergies Trading SA, formerly known as TOTSA Total Oil Trading SA (TOTSA), to pay a $48 million civil monetary penalty and cease and desist from violating the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations. According to the CFTC’s findings, Switzerland-based TOTSA, which is not registered with the CFTC, attempted to manipulate the market for EBOB-linked gasoline futures in March 2018 by selling physical EBOB gasoline at prices below what buyers indicated they would pay. While the trading unit was selling physical EBOB at cut-rate levels, TOTSA maintained a large short position in March-settled EBOB-linked futures, the U.S. regulator said. As the large short position was a bet that gasoline futures prices would drop, the sales of physical EBOB gasoline would increase in value if the reported price of EBOB declined. “Essentially, TOTSA’s traders were willing to accept less revenue from the company’s sales of physical EBOB, in an attempt to depress the reported price of EBOB, and increase TOTSA’s overall trading profits (by boosting the value of the company’s EBOB-linked short position),” the CFTC said in its ruling. This conduct was an attempt at market manipulation in violation of sections of the CEA and CFTC Regulation. “The scheme in this matter involved an attack on the market integrity of CFTC-regulated futures contracts on gasoline, and this settlement demonstrates such attacks will not be tolerated in any market,” said Director of Enforcement Ian McGinley. The CFTC has accepted TOTSA’s offer of settlement, recognizing that the company provided some cooperation during the investigation of this matter. However, TOTSA failed to timely produce WhatsApp communications the Division of Enforcement requested or adequately preserve these communications following DOE’s request, with the result that potentially relevant evidence was unavailable to DOE.Southern California natural gas market's unusual discount status continues | S&P Global Commodity Insights --Natural gas cash prices in Southern California have been below Henry Hub for much of August, and the forwards market is pricing in a rare basis discount continuing through October amid strong storage inventories and gas production in the Western US. The SoCal Gas city-gate cash price has been below Henry Hub throughout Aug. 10-28, averaging a 28 cents/MMBtu discount in this period, Platts data showed. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.Earlier in the summer, it went on an extended stretch below Henry Hub, with the basis discount averaging 64 cents/MMBtu in May and 70 cents in July. Throughout 2024 the basis discount has averaged just 24 cents/MMBtu. This is unusual for what is a typically premium pricing point. It had an average premium of over $4/MMBtu to Henry Hub in 2023 and roughly averaged a $3/MMBtu premium in both 2021 and 2022. Looking ahead, the September and October forward contracts for SoCal Gas city-gate were both at a basis discount of 13 cents/MMBtu on Aug. 27, Platts M2MS data showed.High inventories have been weighing on prices in California this summer, particularly in the south thanks to the extra available capacity at Aliso Canyon.On Aug. 28, total supply on the SoCalGas system was over 107 Bcf, its highest level since 2015, Commodity Insights data showed Aug. 28. This compares with 79 Bcf at the end of August 2023.In August 2023, the California Public Utilities Commission voted unanimously to expand storage capacity at Aliso Canyon to 68.6 Bcf, a more than 65% increase from the earlier expansion to 41.16 Bcf in November 2021. The site previously had a capacity of 86 Bcf, but this was reduced drastically after a 2015 methane leak. Total Pacific region inventories were 288 Bcf as of Aug. 16, around 20% higher year over year and 10% higher than the five-year average, according to EIA data.Inventories are also exceptionally high in the EIA's Mountain region. There was around 263 Bcf in storage as of Aug. 16, the highest since at least 2010 despite only being in the middle of injection season, according to EIA data.While the US has seen some production cuts this summer, these have chiefly come from dry gas producers in Appalachia and the Haynesville Shale, while production has held up in further west in the Permian Basin and the Rockies.Production in the Western US region has averaged 9 Bcf/d so far this summer, around 900 MMcf/d higher year over year thanks to strong output in New Mexico, Commodity Insights data showed. Production has held up despite deeply negative prices in Permian hubs like Waha and El Paso Permian, and has even picked up further to 9.2 Bcf/d in August, the data showed.Production in the Rocky Mountain region has averaged 7.9 Bcf/d this summer, around 200 MMcf/d higher year on year.
Mexico’s Amigo LNG Project Lands Offtake Agreement with Malaysia’s E&H Energy -- Singapore-based LNG Alliance Pte Ltd., sponsor of the proposed Amigo LNG export project in Mexico, signed a long-term offtake agreement with Malaysia’s E&H Energy SDN BHD, the companies said. Under the deal, Amigo LNG – a 7.8 million metric tons/year (mmty) liquefaction terminal envisioned for the Port of Guaymas in Sonora state on Mexico’s Pacific Coast – would supply 3.6 mmty of liquefied natural gas to E&H Energy for the Malaysian market over 20 years beginning in the third quarter of 2027. E&H Energy operates LNG and compressed natural gas facilities in Johor, and in 2018 became one of Malaysia’s first private companies to be awarded an LNG import license under the country’s gas market liberalization. “The future outlook of the Malaysian gas market is positive, driven by increasing demand for gas, particularly in the Malaysian power sector,” said LNG Alliance.
Amigo LNG Project in Mexico Signs Supply Deal Covering Nearly Half of Capacity - Singapore-based LNG Alliance Pte Ltd., sponsor of the proposed Amigo LNG export project in Mexico, signed a long-term offtake agreement with Malaysia’s E&H Energy SDN BHD, the companies said. Under the deal, Amigo LNG – a 7.8 million metric tons/year (mmty) liquefaction terminal envisioned for the Port of Guaymas in Sonora state on Mexico’s Pacific Coast – would supply 3.6 mmty of liquefied natural gas to E&H Energy for the Malaysian market over 20 years beginning in the third quarter of 2027. E&H Energy operates LNG and compressed natural gas facilities in Johor, and in 2018 became one of Malaysia’s first private companies to be awarded an LNG import license under the country’s gas market liberalization. “The future outlook of the Malaysian gas market is positive, driven by increasing demand for gas, particularly in the Malaysian power sector,” said LNG Alliance.
IGU Says Global Natural Gas Demand Could Far Outpace Supply by 2030 -If global natural gas demand continues at the same pace as the previous four years, rising consumption could exceed output, resulting in a steep supply shortfall by 2030 without additional investment in production, the International Gas Union (IGU) warned in its 2024 Global Gas Report. The IGU report produced in partnership with Italian midstream company Snam SpA and Rystad Energy challenges climate plans set by governments and policymakers that fail to include energy demand scenarios that could result in energy shortages by 2030. “The report findings show rising energy demand across all regions, record-breaking coal emissions, and extreme weather conditions, demonstrating an urgent need for more policy clarity around energy supply planning,” said IGU President Yi Li Yalan.
IGU Report: Lack of Gas Investment Jeopardizes World Energy Supply -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The International Gas Union (IGU), Snam, and Rystad Energy partnered (as they have in the past) to produce and release the Global Gas Report 2024 (full copy below). The authors are sounding the alarm. According to the study, should gas demand continue to grow as it has in the last four years without additional production development, a 22% global natural gas supply shortfall is expected by 2030. If demand continues to strengthen, the shortfall will be even more pronounced. There is, say the authors, an urgent need to scale up investments. NOW.
EU hits 90% gas storage capacity 10 weeks early -The European Union (EU) reached its target of filling gas storage facilities to 90% capacity over two months ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline, the European Commission announced on Wednesday. The latest data released by Gas Infrastructure Europe showed that gas storage levels reached 90.02%, equivalent to nearly 92 billion cubic meters (bcm), on August 19. This achievement mirrors last year's performance when the target was also reached by mid-August. Under the Gas Storage Regulation, which came into effect in 2022, storage facilities in member states must reach 90% capacity by November 1st each year to ensure supply security during the winter months as it can cover up to one-third of the EU's gas demand. The EU reached its target well ahead of the November 1st deadline for the second year in a row, Kadri Simson, EU commissioner for energy, said. 'The Commission will continue to monitor the situation so that gas storage levels remain sufficiently high across the coming months and so that we also maintain our focus on improving energy efficiency and boosting the renewable energy roll-out,' Simson added. EU nations, which utilize around 400 billion cubic meters of gas annually, have 110 bcm of natural gas storage capacity. Before the Russian-Ukrainian War, 40% of the natural gas consumed in EU nations came from Russia. However, with the outbreak of the war, Russian natural gas exports to the EU have significantly declined.
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Ships, Companies Involved in Alleged Russian Shadow Fleet for Arctic LNG 2 The U.S. Treasury Department has targeted sanctions against more Russian-linked LNG vessels and companies days after satellite images and ship tracking data indicated PAO Novatek could be amassing a shadow fleet to export cargoes from its Arctic LNG 2 project. Russian LNG Exports by Destination Continent. Production at the 19.8 million metric tons/year facility began earlier in the year as a part of Novatek’s plans to boost Russian export capacity and gas production in the region. However, a ramp up of operations and first shipments was delayed due to a lack of icebreaker ships to deliver cargoes from Arctic LNG 2. That is until the end of July, when Kpler data and imaging indicated a flaring tower had reactivated. A few days later, satellite images spotted two liquefied natural gas carriers identified as Pioneer and Asya Energy appearing to load at the terminal in the Arctic Circle.
U.S. Expands Sanctions on Entities Involved in Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 - The U.S. State Department is intensifying efforts to derail Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 exports by targeting companies involved in the development of the project and vessels found to have loaded LNG from the facility.Located in the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG 2 project was considered key to Russia’s efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035. But Arctic LNG 2 has been basically on ice since the U.S. imposed in November 2023 fresh sanctions on the Russian project. As a result, foreign shareholders suspended participation in Arctic LNG 2, effectively withdrawing from the financing of the project and for offtake contracts for the new plant. The project has already seen months of delays after the U.S. sanctions upended the company’s plans for production start-up and export timelines. Russia, however, has started to amass a dark fleet of tankers to ship its LNG in vessel ownership transfers similar to the moves that Moscow began after the invasion of Ukraine to create a shadow fleet to export oil and products in the face of Western sanctions. Some tankers have recently departed from the sanctioned terminal in northern Russia, signaling Moscow’s continued efforts to circumvent Western restrictions. The U.S. State Department has recently said it had “taken new steps to sanction entities supporting the development of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 and other future energy projects.”The Department designated multiple companies related to the Arctic LNG 2 project to further disrupt the project’s ability to produce and export LNG, as well as the project’s ability to procure critical LNG carriers. These designations include entities involved in the illicit loading of LNG from the Arctic LNG 2 project in early August. Three vessels – Pioneer, Asya Energy, and Everest Energy – are LNG carriers targeted by the new sanctions, as well as their registered owners Zara Shiphoding and Ocean Speedstar Solutions.The Department is also designating White Fox Ship Management, a UAE-based ship management company which manages four LNG carriers that have transshipped LNG from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, despite being originally intended for use with the Arctic LNG 2 project.Furthermore, the U.S. sanctioned 10 companies involved in the continued development of pipeline infrastructure for Russia’s Vostok Oil project.
Higher Natural Gas Prices Seen This Winter in Europe as Geopolitical Complications Mount -European natural gas prices have strengthened over the summer amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and the trend could continue through the coming months. According to analysts at BofA Global Research, a warm winter “left the global gas market swimming in inventory for the second consecutive year in 2024.” But since February, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices have doubled, they said. September TTF closed at $12.54/MMBtu on Wednesday, down about 2% from Tuesday. It was falling again on Thursday.
Russia: European Consumers Will Suffer If Ukraine Refuses to Extend Gas Transit -European consumers will be hit hard and will have to pay more for natural gas if Ukraine does not extend the gas transit deal to allow Russian gas to pass through its territory en route to Europe, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday.Ukraine has already said on several occasions that it would not extend the current gas transit deal which expires on December 31, 2024. The latest such statement came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this week when Zelensky said “No one will extend the agreement with Russia.”Ukraine, however, will consider requests from European companies for gas transit from other sources, the Ukrainian president added.Speaking at a regular press conference on Wednesday, Russia’s Peskov said that if Ukraine decides not to extend the gas transit deal, this will “seriously damage the interests of European consumers, who are still willing to buy more volumes of guaranteed and affordable Russian gas, which is cheaper than gas from other sources, most of all from the United States.”“European consumers will have to pay much more for gas, thus making their industries less competitive,” Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax as he commented on Zelenskyy’s words that Ukraine would not extend its gas transit deal with Russia.Russia sees alternative routes for deliveries of gas to Europe, including a plan to create a hub in Turkey, Peskov said today, adding that “work is under way on this”.
Global LNG supply set for 41% surge by 2028; India to benefit from lower prices: Icra --The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to face a significant supply glut, with approximately 193 million metric tonnes (MMT) of LNG production and liquefaction capacity to be added from CY2024 to CY2028, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. This represents a 41% increase over the current global LNG production capacity. The substantial capacity addition, coupled with modest growth in global natural gas consumption, is likely to exert downward pressure on LNG prices, which would benefit India."Global natural gas consumption is expected to witness modest growth, given the focus of major natural gas consumers in regions of European Union, Japan & Korea towards other sources of energy," said Girishkumar Kadam, Senior Vice President and Group Head, Corporate Ratings, Icra Ltd. "Amidst these demandheadwinds, the LNG capacity addition over the next four years is expected to result in downward pressure on the global LNG prices. India thus stands to benefit in terms of availability of LNG at reasonable prices over the medium term." India's gas consumption, which faced challenges in FY2023 due to elevated LNG prices, recovered sharply to 187.9 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) in FY2024, marking a 17% year-on-year increase. Consumption is expected to grow by 6-8% YoY in FY2025, supported by softer LNG prices and an uptick in domestic gas production. The City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector, driven by the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) segment, is expected to be a key contributor to this growth. However, challenges remain, including the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which could impact CNG demand. The ability of CGD entities to ensure the availability of CNG at competitive prices will also be crucial, given the declining share of APM gas in the overall gas mix. The fertiliser sector will remain the largest off-taker of natural gas, though demand is not expected to grow due to the absence of further capacity expansions in the urea segment.
Tanker behind mysterious oil spill refloated - Authorities in Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday announced they had refloated the mysterious oil tanker that capsized off the Caribbean country six months ago and spilled some 50,000 barrels of oil. At the time of the spill, the vessel —identified as the “Gulfstream” — was being towed by the “Solo Creed,” which turned off its tracking beacon shortly after the incident. The Trinidad government is still trying to find those responsible for the tanker and the tugboat. The refloating occurred on Monday, and lasted until about midnight, the Ministry of Energy said. An inspection of the vessel is scheduled for Tuesday. The “Gulfstream” had been carrying roughly 85,000 barrels of fuel oil when it capsized off the coast of the Cove Eco-Industrial Park in southern Tobago in February. The ship had been sailing under an unidentified flag and made no emergency calls. No crew was found when the spill was discovered and the “Solo Creed” had meanwhile disappeared. Environmental officials said the spill damaged a reef and Atlantic beaches, on the eve of Carnival celebrations. Now refloated, the “Gulfstream” is expected to be taken to the capital, Port of Spain, in Trinidad. Energy Minister Stuart Young said in May that official requests have been made to Tanzania, Nigeria, Panama, Aruba and Curacao to help track down those responsible for the two ships involved in the spill.
Oil spill contaminates three Sattahip beaches, authorities respond swiftly - Pattaya Mail -- As of August 23, preliminary assessments by the Eastern Gulf of Thailand Marine and Coastal Resources Research Center reveal that three Sattahip beaches have been significantly impacted by an oil slick off the coast. Reports indicate that Hat Yao Thung Prong Beach has been contaminated by tar balls over a 200-meter stretch. Bang Saray Beach has been affected over a smaller area of 50 meters, while Sai Kaew Beach has experienced the most extensive impact, with oil stains and tar balls detected along a 450-meter stretch. Initial water quality tests show pH levels between 8.00 and 8.02, water temperatures ranging from 30.9 to 31.7°C, salinity levels from 28.0 to 30.5 parts per thousand (ppt), and dissolved oxygen levels of 5.3 to 5.7 milligrams per litre. These parameters are within the acceptable range for recreational seawater standards (Category 4). Water samples are being analysed for petroleum hydrocarbons to assess the full extent of the contamination. Authorities monitor water quality at Hat Yao Thung Prong Beach as part of ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the impact of the oil spill. Authorities are taking proactive steps to prevent further spills, including ensuring the proper maintenance of vessels and equipment. The response involves collaboration with local government bodies, educational institutions, and community groups to enhance reporting mechanisms for illegal dumping and oil contamination. Cleanup operations are ongoing to address the environmental impact and restore the affected beaches.
PCG: Over 160K liters collected in MTKR Terranova oil siphoning so far -- More than 160,000 liters of oil have been collected in the siphoning operation for sunken motor tanker Terranova in Bataan as of Thursday evening, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) said on Friday.In an update, the PCG said contracted salvor Harbor Star reported that it has collected 161,612 liters of oil from August 19 to 22, broken down into:
- August 19 - 2,350 liters
- August 20 - 36,100 liters
- August 21 - 42,026 liters
- August 22 - 81,136 liters
The volume of collected oil on Thursday did not meet the daily target of the salvor.According to the PCG, the salvor has been aiming to collect 200,000 liters daily since the start of the “full blast” siphoning operation on Wednesday.With this target, the completion of the siphoning of 1.4 million liters of industrial fuel oil from MTKR Terranova would take around two weeks.“Harbor Star said that the rate of oil flow during the 22 August 2024 operation was approximately 7,200 liters per hour,” the PCG said.Due to this, more booster pumps are expected to arrive on the weekend to fast-track the siphoning operation, according to the PCG.Meanwhile, the PCG said its BRP Sindangan conducted drone aerial surveillance and utilized water cannon to address the minimal oil sheen observed in the area.One crew member died and 16 others were rescued after MTKR Terranova capsized and sank 3.6 nautical miles east off Lamao Point in Limay town on July 25. Aside from MTKR Terranova, the PCG is also currently responding to the sunken MTKR Jason Bradley and grounded MV Mirola 1 in Bataan.The PCG and the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) are looking into whether the three ships are involved in oil smuggling.Owners of MTKR Terranova have denied the allegation.Due to the impact of the oil spill, a state of calamity was declared in the entire province of Bataan as well as in nine cities and towns in Cavite.
300,000 liters of oil recovered from tanker | The Manila Times -- AROUND 300,000 liters of oily waste have been collected in the waters where MT Terranova sank with 1.4 million liters of cargo. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported on Sunday that according to Harbor Star Shipping Services Inc., the rate of oily waste flow on August 24 was 13,500 liters per hour. On August 19, the salvor collected 2,350 liters, 36,100 liters on August 20, 42,026 liters on August 21, and 81,136 liters on August 22. This brings the total oil-water mixture collected so far to 300,439 liters. In the case of another tanker, the Jason Bradley, which sank off Cabcaben in Mariveles, Bataan, on July 27, the contracted salvor, FES Challenger, continued resealing and patching manhole and air vents of the sunken vessel in preparation for refloating it. Coast Guard personnel laid 50 meters of spill boom around a third sunken vessel, the MV Mirola 1, while the joint oil spill response team monitored the operations of the contracted salvor, Morning Star.
Qatar Reportedly Eyeing Stake in Germany’s Trapped Russian Refinery -- Gas giant Qatar is reportedly in talks to purchase Russian Rosneft stake in German refinery PCK Schwedt, which has been under trusteeship by Berlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bloomberg and Reuters reported on Wednesday. Schwedt is the fourth-largest refinery in Germany, it is 54% owned by the Russian state oil giant, and it gets its oil from the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia. The Schwedt refinery supplies 90% of the fuel needs of Germany’s capital city Berlin. The trusteeship terms expire on September 10, and while Berlin largely controls the assets, Rosneft is said to retain some control over the sale of its stake in the refinery, according to Reuters. With the trusteeship coming to an end and facing either termination or extension, the German government is likely keen to see a deal before that date for state-run Rosneft’s 54.17% stake valued by Russian media at around $7 billion, Reuters reported. Shell owns the remaining shares, which in December it said would be sold to Britain’s Prax Group. According to Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, Qatar is the last bidding for the refinery, with a delegation visiting Berlin in “recent weeks”. Bloomberg’s unnamed sources also said that the German government would agree to a deal with Qatar, and that the ball is now in Rosneft’s court. Rosneft did not respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment at the time of publication. The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the Qatari sovereign wealth fund, owns a 19% stake in Rosneft.
Kuwait Grows Natural Gas Supply, Qatar Relationship with 15-Year LNG SPA --QatarEnergy has inked a long-term LNG supply agreement with state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) as the nearby Middle Eastern oil producer looks to ease mounting natural gas supply and power demand issues. Starting at the beginning of next year, QatarEnergy agreed to deliver up to 3 million metric tons/year (mmty) of liquefied natural gas to Kuwait for 15 years. Cargoes are to be delivered on an ex-ship basis by Qatar Energy to Kuwait's Al-Zour LNG terminal onboard Qatar’s growing fleet of Q-Flex and Q-Max vessels. CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said the agreement will extend Qatar’s partnership with Kuwait while bolstering the fellow Gulf State’s power sector. “It also reflects our commitment to support the future needs of all our clients, foremost of which is KPC,” Al-Kaabi said.
Kuwait declares state of emergency over oil leak - Khaleej Times - Kuwait's national oil company has declared a state of emergency over an oil leak in one of its southwestern oil fields. Monday's statement by the Kuwait Oil Co. did not identify the onshore oil field affected by the leak, which began Sunday. The state-run Kuwait News Agency said the leak hit the Al Maqwa field. The company said there's no sign of a toxic gas leak. It offered no details about how many barrels of oil had been spilled. Eastern Saudi beaches were not affected by the leak, according to an official statement. OPEC member Kuwait is a major oil producer. The US Energy Information Administration says Kuwait produces some 2.7 million barrels of crude oil a day and holds the world's sixth-largest oil reserves. In August, Kuwait announced a spill at its Ahmadi field. A February fire struck another oil well after a spill.
Shutdowns at Libya’s Oilfields Continue --Another oilfield in Libya stopped nearly all output on Wednesday as shutdowns at the country’s oil-producing facilities continue over a political standoff over the leadership of the OPEC producer’s central bank.On Wednesday, the Sarir oilfield halted almost all production of about 209,000 barrels per day (bpd), engineers told Reuters.According to the field engineers, this was the daily production rate at Sarir before the field began reducing output. Oil production at several Libyan oilfields was halted on Tuesday after the rival government in the east announced on Monday a stop to all oil production and exports from OPEC’s African producer.Libya, which pumps about 1.2 million bpd of oil, was plunged into a deeper political crisis earlier this month over a row about the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the only internationally recognized depository of Libya’s oil revenues.The Benghazi-based government in eastern Libya, which is a rival to the Tripoli-based government in the politically divided North African OPEC producer, said on Monday it would shut down all crude oil output and exports.The east-based government backed by military leader Khalifa Haftar is not internationally recognized, but Haftar and his people control most of the country’s oilfields.Over the past weeks, the situation in Libya has deteriorated with the east-west rivalry flaring up again and centered on the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya—the guardian of Libya’s wealth and income from oil exports.The internationally recognized government in the capital city in the west, Tripoli, is trying to replace Sadiq Al-Kabir, the governor of the Central Bank of Libya. This has led to the latest controversy between the eastern and western governments and political factions, threatening again to reduce Libya’s oil production and exports.Despite the spreading closures at Libyan oilfields,oil prices fell early on Wednesday by about 1.8% amid continued concerns about global oil demand.
Kemp: Oil bears focus attention on low demand and planned production boost --Investors remain resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in order to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Fund managers sold oil futures and option last week after the rally to cover shorts the previous week quickly lost momentum. In the seven-day period ending August 20, hedge funds and other money managers sold equivalent to 48 million barrels of oil in six important futures and option contracts. According to the records filed at exchanges and regulators, funds have sold in six out of seven of the past seven weeks. They've reduced their position by 346 million barrels total since July 1. The combined position was reduced to just 178 millions barrels. This is the fourth lowest weekly record going back to 2013. It has fallen from a recent peak of 524,000,000 on July 2, (40th percentile). The managers of the company sold European gas oil (-20 millions barrels), NYMEX, ICE WTI and Brent (-18 million), U.S. Diesel (-4 million) and Brent (-9million), but only bought U.S. gasoline (+3million). WTI was the only exception, as the position had been shifted to a bearish outlook. Since the mid-cycle downturn in 2015/16, positions in middle distillates – the most sensitive to business cycles – were at their lowest since 2015. The fact that the Federal Reserve, and other major central bankers, are confident they will lower interest rates in order to boost consumer spending and investment by businesses has not diminished concerns over a weakening growth of oil consumption. Traders also expressed concern about the upcoming production increases by Saudi Arabia, and its OPEC allies from the start of October. Allies at the beginning of October. If implemented, this could increase inventories and further lower prices. The potential to cover shorts and rebuild bullish positions is still very high, which could help push prices higher in the event that sentiment changes from bearish to bullish. For the moment, however, price rises have been capped due to lingering concerns about economic prospects and fears about OPEC. Adding more oil to market. As a result of the hotter than normal temperatures combined with ultra-low fuel costs for power generators, portfolio investors increased their positions in U.S. Gas. Hedge funds, other money managers and hedge funds purchased futures and options relating to the price of gasoline at Henry Hub in Louisiana that equated to 163 billion cubic foot (bcf). The week ended August 20. Short-covering was the main reason for the purchases. Funds repurchased 164 bcf from previous short positions. The combined position increased to 515 bcf, which is the 46th percentile of all weeks since 2010, the highest in seven weeks. The working gas inventory has increased by just 100 bcf in the past six weeks. This is the smallest seasonal rise since 2010. On Aug. 16, inventories were still 378 bcf (+13%) or 1.21 standard deviations above the seasonal average of the previous 10 years. The surplus is down from +538 BCF (+20%, or +1.44 standard errors) on July 5, as generators took advantage of cheap gas in order to meet high airconditioning demands. It is almost certain that inventories will be higher than average for the start of winter heating season on November 1. The surplus will be completely eliminated by the end of the winter 2024/25..
Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target By $5 To $70-$85 Just As Sentiment Hits All-Time Low - - In yet another indication that the bottom for oil prices is in, and following a similar move last week by Morgan Stanley whose actions have been a rock-solid contrarian indicator in the past.... overnight Goldman's commodity analyst - now without "supercycle" permabull Jeff Currie - Daan Struyven slashed his expected range for Brent oil prices by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel, citing weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising U.S. shale production, but the biggest driver for the cut is his belief that "OPEC will raise production in Q4 as the market is potentially shifting from an equilibrium where OPEC supports spot balances and reduces volatility to a more long-run equilibrium focused on strategically disciplining non-OPEC supply and supporting cohesion."“Prices could significantly undershoot in the short term, especially if OPEC were to strategically discourage US shale growth more forcefully, or if a recession were to reduce oil demand,” the bank’s analysts noted, referring to a scenario in which Brent could trade lower than its price forecast.That, we can assure the Goldman analyst, will not happen. According to the Goldman note which is available to pro subscribers in the usual place, OECD commercial inventories have been stable contrary to expectations of summer draws for two reasons:
- First, US liquids supply is beating expectations on ongoing efficiency gains and a 0.7mb/d YoY surge in NGL supply.
- Second, China demand growth has slowed on structural road fuel switching and on petrochemical demand weakness.
Yet despite what he believes will be higher US supply and lower China demand growth (oddly enough, nobody talks about India which is rapidly becoming the biggest swing factor on the demand side), Goldman looks for oil prices "to decline only modestly in 2025" for two reasons:
- Solid OECD and India demand limits the uptick in our 2025 surplus forecast to 0.6mb/d (vs. 0.5mb/d).
- Second, lower interest rates and a normalization in valuation should limit downward price pressure.
As a result, the bank has "nudged" down its fair value estimate for Brent by $2/bbl to $70/bbl following efficiency gains from US shale producers, an upgrade in peak production on the GS Top Projects curve, and our view that cheaper global natural gas from 2026 will reduce oil demand growth.That said, the bank warns of downside risk to prices and upside risk to volatility: "The risks to our $70-85 range skew to the downside given high spare capacity, potential trade tensions, and the possibility that OPEC may fully reverse the extra cuts in 2025."While US shale breakeven Brent prices around $70 provide the long-run floor under Brent, prices could undershoot in the short-term; therefore, Goldman sees upside risk to oil implied volatility as short-term inventory volatility may pick up with OPEC's focus on long-run balance; geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved; Iran supply may fall; and current market pricing of volatility remains low.As noted above, Morgan Stanley has also recently revised its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting expectations of increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers amid signs of weakening global demand. The bank now anticipates that while the crude oil market will remain tight through the third quarter, it will begin to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially move into a surplus by 2025.
Oil prices rise on hopes of Fed rate cut - Saudi Gazette — Oil prices climbed on Monday, driven by optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and ongoing disruptions in cease-fire negotiations in the Middle East. International benchmark Brent crude rose 0.73% to $78.72 per barrel at 09:33 a.m. local time (0633 GMT), up from the previous session's close of $78.15. Meanwhile, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 0.82% to $75.44 per barrel, following a close of $74.83 in the prior session. On Friday, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut at the central bank's upcoming meeting in September. Commodity prices surged after Powell's much-anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. A reduction in interest rates in the US, the world's largest oil-consuming country, is expected to stimulate economic activity and increase oil demand. Fed Chair Powell expressed growing confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%, stating that "the time has come" for an adjustment in monetary policy. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," Powell said at the symposium. He added that the overall economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Analysts are certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is also under consideration. Market pricing indicates that the Fed may cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points by the end of the year. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September is estimated at 32.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 67.5%. Further contributing to the rise in oil prices are concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Despite ongoing international cease-fire negotiations, Israel has intensified its attacks on the blockaded Gaza Strip. Since October 7, 2023, the Israeli offensive has resulted in over 40,400 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children, and more than 93,000 injuries, according to local health authorities. The latest round of cease-fire talks concluded in Cairo on Sunday without reaching an agreement. The Palestinian group Hamas has demanded that Israel adhere to the terms agreed upon on July 2, in line with a proposal laid out by US President Joe Biden on May 31 and a UN Security Council resolution.
Oil Prices Soar as Geopolitical Risk Rises Rapidly - Oil prices spiked dramatically on Monday morning, with Brent breaking above $81 and WTI rising toward $77. While hopes of an interest rate cut had already boosted bullish sentiment in markets, it is geopolitics and supply risks that sent prices soaring on Monday morning.A combination of Israel launching strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Russia launching a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine, and the Libyan government in Benghazi declaring force majeure on all oil facilities drove oil prices up dramatically.Early on Sunday morning, Israel launched what it claims was a preemptive attack on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The exchange of fire between the two sides was the biggest since they fought a 34-day war in 2006.Shortly before 5 am local time, Israel launched 100 jets to target 40 sites in Lebanon that it claimed were preparing to fire missiles and rockets at Israel.Hezbollah then claimed to have launched more than 340 rockets at 11 military targets in Israel and the Golan Heights.These attacks are likely to undermine ceasefire talks taking place in Egypt.On Sunday night and early on Monday morning, Russia launched a coordinated missile and drone attack on cities and critical infrastructure across Ukraine. President Zelensky claimed that over 100 missiles and roughly 100 attack drones were launched by Russia overnight.Russia says it was aiming to hit critical infrastructure in the country, succeeding in causing power outages and disruptions to water supplies. Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. On Monday morning, Libya’s government in Benghazi said that the country’s oilfields were closing down and all production and exports would stop.While the government is not internationally recognized, it does control most of the country’s oilfields.Tensions have been rising in Libya in recent weeks, with attempts to oust the head of the Central Bank of Libya resulting in the mobilization of armed factions of either side. The combination of these three events has only added to bullish sentiment, and will likely drive another volatile week for oil prices as these stories develop.
Oil climbs 3% as Libya output cuts further supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled 3% higher on Monday as production cuts in Libya added to supply concerns stemming from reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude futures closed $2.41, or 3.05%, at $81.43 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures settled $2.59, or 3.5%, higher at $77.42 a barrel. Both benchmarks had gained more than 2% on Friday. "The near-term buying seems justified," on Middle East tensions, Libyan production outages and weak oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key U.S. storage hub. Libya's eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports. National Oil Corp, which controls the country's oil resources, provided no confirmation. However, NOC subsidiary Waha Oil Company said it planned to gradually reduce output and warned of a complete halt to Libya's production, citing unspecified "protests and pressures". Libya's Sirte Oil Company, another NOC subsidiary, said it will start a partial reduction in production. Libya's oil production was about 1.18 million barrels per day in July, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, citing secondary sources. "The biggest risk for the oil market is probably a further drop in Libyan oil production due to political tensions in the country, with a risk that production could fall from current levels of 1 million barrels per day to zero," A long-expected missile attack by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement appeared to have been largely thwarted by pre-emptive Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. However, the U.S. continues to assess that the threat of attack against Israel by Iran and its proxy groups still exists, the Pentagon said on Monday. There was no agreement on Sunday in Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Cairo, with neither Hamas nor Israel agreeing to several compromises presented by mediators, two Egyptian security sources said An oil tanker has been on fire in the Red Sea since Aug. 23 after an attack by Yemen's Houthis, EU Red Sea naval mission Aspides said in a post on X. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories at Cushing, the pricing point for U.S. crude oil futures, have fallen to six-month lows. "Most oil forecasters expect 2025 oil demand growth to hover around 1 million b/d. Were Libya to go down in another bout of civil war, the balances of 2025 could look very similar to this year's despite more Saudi and Russian production," On the demand side, increasing signs of lackluster growth and emerging risks to the job market overshadowed a gathering of global policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole conference, highlighting the changing trajectory of monetary policy as U.S. and European central banks eye cutting interest rates. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Monday said it was hard to imagine anything could derail a September rate cut from the current range of 5.25%-5.50%.
A Potential Shutdown of Most of Libya’s Oil Fields -- The oil market posted an inside trading day on a price correction after rallying over the previous three sessions on supply concerns amid fears of widening Middle East conflict and a potential shutdown of most of Libya’s oil fields. The market traded to a high of $77.48 in overnight trading. However, the market pulled back and held resistance at its previous high of $77.60 after it failed to break above its 200 day moving average during Monday’s move higher. The crude market sold off to a low of $75.40 in afternoon trading ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down $1.89 at $75.53 and the October Brent contract settled down $1.88 at $79.55. The product markets settled lower, with the heating oil market settling down 6.18 cents at $2.2862 and the RB market settling down 3.3 cents at $2.2469. Engineers said several oilfields across Libya have halted output as closures spread, amid a dispute over control of the central bank and the country’s oil revenue. On Monday, authorities in the east of the country where most of its oilfields are located threatened to close them all, stepping up their standoff with the country’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli, which is heavily dependent on the fields for its revenues. There has still been no confirmation of any closures from the Tripoli-based government, or from the National Oil Corp, which controls the country’s oil resources. However engineers at the southeastern Amal and Nafoora oilfields said production was halted, while engineers at Abu Attifel, also in the east, said output was reduced. Engineers at the southwestern El Feel oilfield, with 70,000 bpd, also said output had been halted. Meanwhile, Libya’s eastern parliament speaker Aguila Saleh said that oil and gas flows will remain on hold until Libya’s central bank governor resumes his legal duties.According to a Department of Energy document, the U.S. is seeking to buy about 3.6 million barrels of domestically produced crude oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The sour crude or oil relatively high in sulfur would be for delivery in January through March of 2025 to the reserve’s Bryan Mound site in Texas.Goldman Sachs cut its average 2025 Brent forecast and range for prices by $5/barrel saying unexpected increases in oil inventories and slow China demand is likely to weigh on the market. The bank cut its range for Brent prices to $70-$85/barrel and its 2025 average Brent forecast to $77/barrel from a previous estimate of $82/barrel. Goldman Sachs said U.S. liquids supply is beating expectations on ongoing efficiency gains and China demand growth has slowed on structural road fuel switching and on petrochemical demand weakness. However, it added that India’s demand, lower interest rates and a normalization in valuation should limit downward price pressure. S&P Global Commodities at Sea is estimating that over 6.2 million mt of diesel/gasoil will arrive at European ports from global exporters in August. Some 3.9 million mt has already been delivered with a further 2.3 million mt currently inbound. It estimates that U.S. exports will account for the bulk of the arriving middle distillates.
Oil snaps three-day winning streak, drops 2% on US, China growth concerns; Brent sticks to $80/bbl, MCX falls 3% [ International crude oil prices snapped their three-day winning streak and fell around two per cent on Tuesday, August 27. Worries that slower economic growth in the US and China could reduce energy demand dragged prices down, especially after they surged over seven per cent in the prior three days.Brent futures last fell $1.31, or 1.6 per cent, to $80.12 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 1.7 per cent, to $76.12. Regarding domestic prices, crude oil futures last fell 2.14 per cent lower at ₹6,344 per barrel on the multi-commodity exchange (MCX).
- -Analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said the complex is pulling back today as crude takes a breather from the strong $6 advance of the prior three sessions. However, this looks like a normal correction likely to be followed by a renewed upswing. Technical traders noted that on Monday, the prices of both contracts failed to break above resistance around the 200-day moving averages.
- -Oil prices rose over the past few days, with analysts pointing to the potential shutdown of Libya's oil fields, which could curtail OPEC's 1.2 million barrels per day of output, and other tensions in the Middle East following counter-attacks betweenIsrael and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon in recent days. Analysts said markets remain on edge as skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah intensify.
- -Crude oil prices were also supported by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Lower rates can boost economic growth and oil demand. Traders are betting on a 25- or 50-basis point interest rate cut in September.
- -CME Group's Fed Watch tool shows a 71.5 per cent chance for 25 basis points a 28.5 per cent chance for 50 basis points. UBS Global Wealth Management sees a 25 per cent chance of a US recession, up from 20 per cent previously, citing soft numbers in the July labour report.
- -US data is expected to show that energy firms pulled crude from storage last week for the eighth week of nine. That compares with a withdrawal of 10.6 million barrels during the same week last year and an average decrease of 6.3 million barrels over the past five years (2019-2023).
- -Goldman Sachs cut its average 2025 Brent forecast and price range by $5 per barrel, citing slower demand in China. The bank reduced its range for Brent prices to $70-$85 a barrel, and the 2025 average Brent forecast to $77 per barrel from $82.
- -In Germany, the economy shrank in the second quarter. Adding to global uncertainty, Russia warned the West was playing with fire by considering allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with Western missiles. It cautioned the US that World War Three would not be confined to Europe.
Analysts said Libya's current output is approximately 1.0 million barrels per day, and the potential halt in production has heightened supply concerns. Additionally, crude oil prices surged due to better-than-expected US durable goods orders data and the possibility of interest rate cuts, as the US Fed Chairman hinted at the Jackson Hole Symposium. ‘’Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with delays in ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, have also contributed to the support for oil prices.
WTI Extends Losses After Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Draw - Oil slipped for a second day, extending a bumpy run so far this month, with the market focusing on Libyan supplies, key technical indicators and US inventory data. The outages in Libya have been countered by a broadly bearish undertone - leading top Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs. and Morgan Stanley to shave their price forecasts for next year. API:
- Crude -3.4mm (exp. -3mm)
- Gasoline -1.86mm
- Distillates -1.4mm
- Cushing -486k
DOE
- Crude -846k (exp. -3mm)
- Gasoline -2.2mm
- Distillates +275k
- Cushing -668k
US Crude stocks declined for the 8th week in the last 9 (but less than expected) as Gasoline inventories tumbled and Distillates built modestly... Source: Bloomberg The Biden admin added 745k barrels to the SPR last week (but net it was still a small draw in total stockpiles)... That pushed the total US Crude stockpile down to its lowest since January... US Crude production dipped from record highs... but barely... WTI Crude prices extended their earlier losses after the smaller-than-expected crude draw... It’s against this fragile backdrop that the OPEC+ cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia must choose whether to implement plans to start increasing output in October. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are scheduled to add 543,000 barrels a day during the fourth quarter, the first stage in restoring production halted in late 2022 to shore up prices. Key members such as the United Arab Emirates appear eager to go ahead, seizing the chance to deploy idle capacity and regain relinquished market share. The Saudis have stressed the hikes can be “paused or reversed” as necessary.
Concerns Over Chinese Demand and Increased Risks of a Broader Economic Slowdown - The crude market continued to trend lower as demand concerns outweighed geopolitical tensions. The market traded lower due to continuing concerns over Chinese demand and increased risks of a broader economic slowdown. After posting an inside trading day on Tuesday, the market posted a high of $75.95 and breached its previous lows as it retraced almost 62% of its move from a low of $71.46 to a high of $77.60. It sold off to a low of $73.82 early in the morning. The market later bounced off its low and traded over the $75.00 level despite the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report, showing a smaller than draw in crude stocks of over 800,000 barrels on the week. However, gasoline stocks drew down 2.203 million barrels on the week. The oil market later traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The October WTI contract settled down $1.01 at $74.52 and the October Brent contract settled down 90 cents at $78.65. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.71 cents at $2.2291 and the RB market settling down 3.21 cents at $2.2148. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week as demand increased ahead of Labor Day weekend and the end of the summer driving season. Crude stocks fell by 846,000 barrels to 425.2 million barrels in the week ending August 23rd. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 668,000 barrels on the week. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week to 218.4 million barrels, the lowest level since November. U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline inventories last week fell by 2.8 million barrels to 76.3 million barrels, their lowest since March 2021. Two field engineers said Libya’s oilfield closures spread on Wednesday as the Sarir field almost completely halted output, amid a political dispute over control of the central bank and oil revenue. Authorities in the east, where most of Libya’s oilfields are located, declared on Monday that all production and exports would be halted. Sarir was producing about 209,000 bpd before output was reduced. Force majeure had already been announced on exports at the 300,000 bpd Sharara oilfield and this week disruptions were reported at El Feel, Amal, Nafoora and Abu Attifel. The move to shut off Libya’s main source of revenue comes in response to the Tripoli-based Presidency Council sacking Central Bank of Libya chief Sadiq al-Kabir, prompting rival armed factions to mobilize. Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, installed through a U.N.-backed process in 2021 and head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, said this week that oilfields should not be allowed to be shut “under flimsy pretexts”. Meanwhile, ports in the country’s Oil Crescent operated normally on Wednesday and had not received order to halt exports. Four vessels were at the ports of Es Sidra, Brega and Zueitina to load 600,000 barrels each. The National Hurricane Center continues to watch an area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical Atlantic that are associated with a tropical wave. Forecasters continue to look for some slow development of this system over this weekend and into early next week as it moves west/northwestward. Currently forecasters are assigning a 20% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Oil prices edge higher amid Libyan supply concerns | The Libya Observer - Oil prices experienced a slight increase on Thursday following two consecutive sessions of losses, driven by renewed worries about potential disruptions in Libyan oil supplies.As of 03:55 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by nine cents, or 0.11%, reaching $78.74 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 15 cents, or 0.2%, climbing to $74.67 per barrel.Both benchmarks had declined over 1% on Wednesday after data revealed a decrease in U.S. crude inventories, which fell by 846,000 barrels to 425.2 million barrels last week. This drop was less than the anticipated 2.3 million barrel reduction projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. Analysts noted that heightened concerns regarding possible supply disruptions from Libya - a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - contributed to the positive momentum in the market.
Oil settles up over 1% on worries over supplies from Libya, Iraq (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up by more than a dollar a barrel on Thursday as supply disruptions in Libya and plans to lower output in Iraq raised fears of tighter global supplies. Brent crude futures gained $1.29, or 1.6%, to settle at $79.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.39, or 1.9%, to $75.91 a barrel.More than half of Libya's oil production was offline on Thursday and exports were halted at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions. About 700,000 barrels per day of oil output is offline in the country, according to Reuters calculations."Libyan exports were holding up so far, but with the closure of the export terminal, that should translate in a tighter Atlantic basin," Even after blockades are lifted, traders must adapt to Libya being a wild card for the markets, Offline production in Libya is at an imminent risk of reaching 1 million bpd, Carnizelo said, adding that a gradual recovery is unlikely before October.Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said. Its agreed quota is 4 million bpd."At the moment, the market is tight and vulnerable to upside moves," Expectations for the U.S. central bank to start cutting interest rates next month also supported oil prices. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said it may be time for cuts, with inflation down farther and unemployment up more than anticipated.The disruptions, and expectations of lower interest rates in the U.S., turned the attention away from signs of weak demand.On Wednesday, oil prices lost more than 1% after data showed U.S. crude inventories last week fell by 846,000 barrels to 425.2 million, smaller than the draw of 2.3 million barrels forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.Total oil products inventories in Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining hub rose 1.1% in the week to Thursday, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.
Crude Oil Prices Surge As US Revises GDP, Iran Output Drops - Bizwatch Nigeria - Oil prices rose early Friday as a result of Iran’s planned production cut report, which came at the same time that Libya declared force majeure, limiting exports. The development has raised supply concerns in the global commodities market, increasing the risk of rising energy costs as countries battle inflation. Demand outlook appears positive as U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up to 3% from 2.8% previously. The GDP revision “sparked the bull run across multiple asset groups today,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says in a note. Brent crude trades at $79.16 a barrel on Friday. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.37% to $76.19 per barrel after closing at $75.91 in the previous session. Concerns about probable supply constraints caused by Libya’s halt of oil production fueled price increases. Libya’s National Oil Corp. stated Thursday that the losses incurred as a result of the eastern government’s decision to shut down oil and gas production in the country exceeded $120 million over three days. In a statement, the corporation, which manages the country’s oil resources, said that oil production rates had dropped from nearly 1.3 million barrels per day on Monday (the day the shutdown began) to 591,024 barrels on Wednesday. Libya, a significant member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced 1.18 million barrels of crude oil per day in July. Oil prices jumped over 1% on Thursday after it was reported that Iraq planned to reduce its oil production in September as part of a plan with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iraq will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million barrels per day after producing about 4.25 million bpd in July. Elsewhere, the European gas market is grappling with a series of supply concerns despite ample inventories cushioning risks ahead of the winter, according to analysts. The Dutch TTF contract, which currently trades 1.1% higher at 39.33 euros a megawatt-hour, is up roughly 7% on the week and 12% on the month. Annual maintenance in top supplier Norway, with gas exports this week hitting their lowest level since June, and fears that Russian gas flows via Ukraine will be disrupted before the expiration of a transit deal between the two countries, are among the main factors supporting prices in the near term.
OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned output hike from October, sources say (Reuters) - OPEC+ is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, as Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October, as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of output cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until end-2025.A slowdown in demand growth, notably in China, has weighed on oil prices and prompted some analysts to doubt whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, will go ahead with the October increase. But the six OPEC+ sources told Reuters the plan to increase production remains in place as the loss of Libyan output tightens the market and hopes build that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in mid-September.OPEC, the Saudi government communications office and the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak didn't immediately respond to requests for comment."There are many uncertainties on demand but there is also the hope that the Fed's interest rate cut will boost economic growth," one of the sources said.Brent crude prices fell by about $1 on Friday trading at just under $79 a barrel by 1341 GMT.OPEC had previously communicated that it could pause or reverse the production hikes if it decides the market is not strong enough.Two of the sources said that future output hikes will be decided on a month by month basis.OPEC+ does not have any formal talks scheduled until top ministers on a panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meet on Oct. 2. The JMMC can make recommendations to the wider OPEC+ group.The planned increase for October is only a fraction of the 700,000 bpd of offline Libyan oil output and the compensation cuts pledged by Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia.
Oil Pulls Back Sharply On Report OPEC+ To Proceed With Planned Output Increase- Following the strong upward move seen in the previous session, the price of crude oil showed a significant move back to the downside during trading on Friday.Crude for October delivery plunged $2.36 or 3.1 percent to $73.55 a barrel after jumping $1.39 or 1.9 percent to $75.91 a barrel during Thursday's session.With the sharp pullback on the day, the price of crude oil slumped by 1.7 percent for the week and tumbled by 3.6 percent for the month of August.The price of crude oil came under pressure after a report from Reuters said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October.While recent demand concerns have weighed on oil prices and raised questions about whether OPEC+ would go ahead with the plan, six sources from the producer group told Reuters the plan to increase production remains in place. Reuters noted the decision to go ahead with the plan, which will see eight OPEC+ members boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October, comes amid Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members.
Oil settles $1 down as supply set to rise, uncertainty around Fed rate cuts (Reuters) - Oil prices retreated on Friday as investors weighed expectations of a rise in OPEC+ supply starting in October, alongside dwindling hopes of a hefty U.S. interest rate cut next month, following data showing strong consumer spending. Brent crude futures for October delivery , which expire on Friday, settled $1.14 lower, or 1.43%, at $78.80 a barrel, marking a decline of 0.3% for the week and 2.4% for the month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $2.36, or 3.11%, to $73.55, a drop of 1.7% in the week and a 3.6% decline in August. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hikefrom October, as the Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters."OPEC+ talking about going ahead with tapering off production cuts was the headline that really sunk us today," Meanwhile, investors responded to new data that showed U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July, suggesting the economy remained on firmer ground early in the third quarter and arguing against a half-percentage-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.. Lower rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil. "That modest inflation increase could basically solidify that we will only get a quarter percentage-point cut and those hoping for a half will have to wait," . Elsewhere, Libya's National Oil Corporation said recent oilfield closures have caused the loss of approximately 63% of the country's total oil production, as a conflict between rival eastern and western factions continues. Production losses could reach between 900,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and last for several weeks, according to consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. Libya's eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports and driving oil to settle at a near-two week high on Aug. 26. "It is interesting see the shutdown of Libya's crude oil production have such an impact on market prices one day and completely ignored the next," “It looks to me right now there is a lot of negative inertia in the market pulling prices down,” Snyder added. Iraqi supplies are also expected to shrink after the country's output surpassed its OPEC+ quota, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday. Iraq plans to reduce its oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month. In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs, opens new tab was unchanged at 483 this week, but rose by one in August, Baker Hughes said.
Burning Red Sea oil tanker risks ecological disaster, EU warns - A ship carrying crude oil that caught fire after being attacked in the Red Sea could lead to a severe ecological disaster, the European Union’s naval force in the region said Saturday. The Sounion tanker was hit earlier this week by a series of missiles while sailing through the waterway and suffered a fresh attack Friday, EUNAVFOR Aspides said in a post on X. The vessel now poses “a significant environmental threat” due to the large volume of oil on board, it said. The UK Navy reported Friday that three fires had been seen on board. “The Houthis’ continued attacks threaten to spill a million barrels of oil into the Red Sea, an amount four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster,” the US State Department said in a separate statement. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have attacked vessels in protest against Israel’s war with Hamas. Although other ships have been sunk, the Sounion risks being the most severe incident given its cargo. After the first attack on the tanker earlier in the week its crew was evacuated with assistance from a French naval ship. At that time the vessel was anchored in international waters, the EU Navy said Saturday, however following the fires on board it was reported to be drifting.
Risk of ‘extremely serious’ oil spill grows in Red Sea following attack -- International shipping authorities are very worried about a possible environmental disaster in the Red Sea following an attack on a tanker carrying about a million barrels of crude oil. The Greek-flagged MV Delta Sounion was attacked Aug. 21 by a vessel crewed by the Iran-aligned Houthis, a Yemeni political and military organization, according to the U.S. military. It’s currently on fire and appears to be leaking oil into Red Sea waters. “The risk of an oil spill, posing an extremely serious environmental hazard, remains high and there is widespread concern about the damage such a spill would cause within the region,” said Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), in a Wednesday statement. Dominguez said he was “extremely concerned” about the situation. On Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder described the Sounion as “immobilized” in its location in the Red Sea. The ship’s condition presents “both a navigational hazard and a potential environmental catastrophe,” he said. The Greek shipping ministry said the vessel was on its way from Iraq to Greece with a crew of two Russian and 23 Filipino sailors when it was attacked, according to Ryder. The Sounion’s crew has since been evacuated. The Houthis have been carrying out attacks in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Last week, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sare’e posted a video on social media purportedly showing the Sounion being set ablaze. He described it as showing “scenes of the Yemeni Navy burning the Greek ship SOUNION in the Red Sea.” The situation with the Sounion isn’t the first time an oil tanker has posed a grave environmental risk to the Red Sea as a result of tensions with the Houthis. An oil tanker moored off the coast of the Hodeidah governorate in Houthi-controlled territory prompted multiple special meetings of the United Nations Security Council in 2021 and 2020. The leaking 45-year-old FSO Safer tanker had been serving as a floating storage facility and fell into disrepair following Saudi Arabian-led military actions against the Houthis in 2015. U.N. Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen warned at the time that a possible spill could impact 28 million people relying on local waters and resources for their livelihoods. The 1.1 million barrels of oil on board the Safer were eventually offloaded to another tanker in a ship-to-ship transfer that concluded in August 2023. Despite numerous calls for a ceasefire and de-escalation of tensions around the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, a forthcoming resolution appears unlikely following a spate of assassinations and extraterritorial attacks in the region. Hamas political bureau chair Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran in July, and deputy chair Saleh al-Arouri was killed in Lebanon in January. Fuad Shukr, a senior member of the Iran-backed Lebanese political organization Hezbollah, was the target of an “intelligence-based elimination” in July, according to the Israeli military, as reported by the BBC.In April, an Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killed two generals and five other officers, according to The Associated Press, in a significant escalation of the conflict that prompted Iran to launch retaliatory strikes on Israel.
Red Sea tanker attack: hopes rise that major oil spill can be averted -- The area around a Greek-flagged tanker attacked last week by Yemen’s Houthi rebels appears to be free of oil, the EU mission in the Red Sea has said. The tanker came under fire last week off Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah. The Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populous regions, said they were behind the attack. The Pentagon had earlier said MV Sounion was still on fire and might be leaking crude oil. The Sounion is carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil and if a spill occurs, it has the potential to be among the largest from a ship in recorded history. Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Maj Gen Patrick Ryder said on Tuesday that a third party had tried to send two tugs to help salvage the Sounion, but the Houthis threatened to attack them. “These are simply reckless acts of terrorism which continue to destabilise global and regional commerce, put the lives of innocent civilian mariners at risk and imperil the vibrant maritime ecosystem in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the Houthis’ own back yard,” Ryder said. He added that the US military was working with other partners in the region to determine how to help the vessel and mitigate any environmental impact. Aspides, the EU mission in the Red Sea, has said that the Greek-flagged oil tanker is still anchored and not drifting and was reportedly assessing protective measures, including towing to a safer location. The Iran-aligned Houthis have sunk two ships and killed at least three crew members in a 10-month campaign that has upended global ocean shipping by forcing vessel owners to avoid the Suez Canal short cut.
The Greek Tanker Struck by a Houthi Missile Is Now Leaking Oil -- A Greek tanker that the Yemeni Houthis struck with a missile in the Red Sea a week ago is leaking oil, the U.S. Pentagon said, per multiple media reports. Salvaging the vessel has proved challenging as the Houthis threaten more attacks, the BBC noted in a report quoting the Pentagon. “The MV Sounion now sits immobilized in the Red Sea, where it is currently on fire and appears to be leaking oil, presenting both a navigational hazard and a potential environmental catastrophe,” Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder said, as quotedby the Maritime Executive. Reports last week said a tanker on fire was drifting in the Red Sea. It later emerged that the vessel had come under attack by armed groups traveling on small vessels some 90 miles from the Yemeni port city of Hodeida. The tanker was also reportedly struck by missiles or drones. “The vessel reports being not under command,” the UK Maritime Trade Operations office said at the time, likely meaning it lost all power. “No casualties reported.” The Greek-flagged oil tanker, the Sounion, had 25 crew members and was traveling from Iraq to Cyprus, the Associated Press reported at the time. The crew was rescued by a European warship and transported to Djibouti. The BBC today reported that the Sounion was carrying some 150,000 tons—or close to a million barrels—of crude oil and if it spills as a result of the strikes, it could become one of the largest oil spills from a vessel in recent history. For context, the BBC recalled that the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989 totaled 257,000 barrels of crude. The Houthis have launched attacks on an estimated 80 vessels since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthi campaign is prompting shippers to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal and take the longer route around the Horn of Africa, which is set to add an additional 500,000 bpd of fuel consumption for 2024.
Houthis Agree To Allow Tugboats To Tow Damaged Oil Tanker - The Houthis have agreed to allow tugboats to reach the Sounion, a Greek-flagged oil tanker that’s anchored in the Red Sea that was struck by Houthi missiles last week.The Sounion was disabled by the Houthi strike and is reportedly still on fire. A French destroyer rescued the 29-person crew of the ship in the aftermath of the attack, and they were taken to Djibouti.Iran’s mission to the UN said on Wednesday that the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, agreed to let the tanker be towed after several requests.“Several countries have reached out to ask Ansar Allah, requesting a temporary truce for the entry of tugboats and rescue ships into the incident area,” the Iranian mission said. “In consideration of humanitarian and environmental concerns, Ansar Allah has consented to this request.” Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam denied in comments to Reutersthat the group has agreed to a temporary truce. He said they only agreed to allow the damaged tanker to be towed away.On Tuesday, the Pentagon said that the tanker could be leaking oil into the Red Sea and that the Houthis had threatened boats that tried to approach the vessel. The Houthis have continued their attacks on Israel-linked and other commercial shipping, a campaign they launched in response to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. Back in January, the US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis, but that has only escalated the situation.The last US missile strike reported by US Central Command took place on August 23. The Houthis have been clear that the only thing that would stop their attacks would be a ceasefire in Gaza.
Houthis to allow access to stricken Red Sea tanker amid fears of huge oil spill --Yemen’s Houthi group has agreed to allow tugboats and rescue ships to access a damaged crude oil tanker in the Red Sea, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said, after the Iranian-aligned militants attacked the Greek-flagged vessel last week. The Sounion tanker is carrying 150,000 tonnes, or 1m barrels, of crude oil and poses an environmental hazard, shipping officials said. Any spill has the potential to be among the largest from a ship in recorded history. “Several countries have reached out to … request a temporary truce for the entry of tugboats and rescue ships into the incident area,” Iran’s UN mission in New York said, adding that the Houthis had consented to the request, in consideration of “humanitarian and environmental concerns”. Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam denied on Wednesday there would be a temporary truce, telling Reuters that the group only agreed to allow the towing of oil tanker Sounion after several international parties contacted the group. The Pentagon said on Tuesday a third party had tried to send two tugs to help salvage the Sounion, but the Houthis threatened to attack them. In a statement on Wednesday, Iran’s UN mission said “the failure to provide aid and prevent an oil spill in the Red Sea stems from the negligence of certain countries, rather than concerns over the possibility of being targeted.” (Red Sea map.) The Sounion was targeted last week by multiple projectiles off Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah. There have been seemingly conflicting reports about oil escaping from the ship, but on Wednesday, the European Union’s mission in the Red Sea said there was no oil spill in the waters near the Greek-flagged tanker. The EU mission, called Aspides, added that the Sounion was still anchored and not drifting. The Pentagon said on Tuesday that the tanker was still on fire in the Red Sea and appeared to be leaking oil. The Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populous regions, began aerial drone and missile strikes on the Red Sea in November in what they say is solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. In over 70 attacks, they have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least three seafarers.
Egypt Reiterates Opposition To Israeli Military Presence at Gaza-Egypt Border - Egypt on Monday reiterated its objection to Israel maintaining control of the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, as part of any Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.“Egypt reiterated to all relevant parties its rejection of any Israeli presence at (the Palestinian side of) the Rafah crossing or the Philadelphi Corridor,” an Egyptian official said, according to Anadolu Agency.The comment came after hostage deal talks concluded in Cairo on Sunday, with reports saying no progress was made. Israel’s demand to maintain the Philadelphi Corridor is one of the main obstacles to a deal, as Hamas wants an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on controlling the border even though the Israeli military doesn’t think it’s necessary. On Saturday, Reuters reported that Netanyahu has been in a dispute with Israeli negotiators, who are willing to agree to an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.“The prime minister insists that this situation will continue, contrary to pressure from certain elements in the negotiating team who are willing to withdraw from there,” a person familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.After the meeting concluded in Cairo on Sunday, Hamas called for the implementation of the ceasefire deal previously presented by President Biden. The US recently put forward a new proposal that included many of Netanyahu’s demands and doesn’t include a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal.“The Hamas delegation demanded that the occupation be bound by what was agreed upon on 2 July, based on what was stated in Biden’s speech and the Security Council resolution. Hamas confirms its readiness to implement what has been agreed upon, in a way that achieves the supreme interests of our people and stops the aggression against them,” said Hamas spokesman Izzat al-Rishq, according to The Cradle.“The Hamas delegation stressed the movement’s position that any agreement must include a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the freedom of return of residents to their areas, relief and reconstruction, and a serious exchange deal,” he added.
Israel launches major attack on southern Lebanon - Israel launched its largest attack on southern Lebanon since 2006 on Sunday, involving over 100 air force fighter jets. The Israel Defence Forces claimed that the attacks involved over 40 targets. Shortly afterward, the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon announced that it was beginning an attack on Israeli military positions in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr, its senior military commander, in an attack on Beirut last month. Israel’s strikes on Lebanon are part of a US-backed military escalation throughout the Middle East, with the central target being Iran. The US is simultaneously sponsoring Israel’s genocide in Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 people. Three people were killed in the strikes in Lebanon, while no deaths were reported inside Israel. One Israeli soldier was killed on an Israeli warship after an Israeli air defense missile exploded over it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that they “intercepted all of the drones that Hezbollah launched at a strategic target in the center of the country.” The Israeli attack was the most serious since Israel’s 34-day invasion of southern Lebanon in 2006. US and Israeli officials had made it clear that they were in close coordination over the attacks, with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaking with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant twice over the weekend “to discuss Israeli actions to defend against attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah.” Israeli officials said they had briefed the US before carrying out the attack on Lebanon. On Sunday, the Pentagon reported that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had ordered two US aircraft carriers to remain in the Middle East, reversing a plan that would have sent one of them home. US National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett endorsed Israel’s attack on Lebanon, declaring: “We will keep supporting Israel’s right to defend itself.” In an interview on Sunday, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan added that “there was continuous communication, and we have been tracking the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel for some time now.” In a statement on Sunday afternoon, Netanyahu threatened to continue attacks on Lebanon, declaring the strike was “not the end of the story.” He threatened: “We are determined to do everything we can to defend our country… whoever harms us—we harm him.” In April, an Israeli strike killed a group of Iranian military officers meeting in Damascus, to which Iran responded with a strike on Israel with 300 missiles and drones, nearly all of which were intercepted. In July, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr with a strike in Beirut, followed by the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh at a military guesthouse in Iran. Israel is the largest annual recipient of US foreign aid and has received $12.5 billion in weapons since October 2023. The US has provided it with dozens of advanced fighter jets, including F-35s. Earlier this month, the US approved a $20 billion arms sale to Israel, including 50 F-15 fighter jets, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs, 120 mm tank ammunition, high explosive mortars and tactical vehicles. Israel is also the only state in the Middle East that possesses nuclear weapons. Since October, Israel has killed nearly 500 people in southern Lebanon, more than the number of people killed in the 2006 invasion of Lebanon, alongside strikes against Iran, Syria and Yemen. During the same time, nearly 50 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by attacks from Hezbollah. Against the backdrop of Israel’s strikes, negotiations over a possible exchange of hostages between Hamas and Israeli officials broke off on Sunday with no agreement. The discussions reportedly included CIA Director William Burns and David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.
Israel Kills 41 Palestinians Across Gaza - On Tuesday, Gaza’s Health Ministry said that Israeli forces killed at least 41 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in the previous 24-hour period.“Israeli forces killed 41 people and injured 113 others in three ‘massacres’ of families in the last 24 hours,” the ministry said. “Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the roads as rescuers are unable to reach them.”Israeli strikes were reported across the Gaza Strip, in the north, the south, and central areas, including Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah, and Gaza City. Amid the onslaught, Israel said that it freed a Bedouin man who was taken captive by Hamas on October 7.The Israeli military said it rescued 52-year-old Kaid Farhan al-Kadi from a tunnel in southern Gaza. Al-Kadi is a resident of an unrecognized village near Rahat, a town in the Negev Desert. According to Al Jazeera, he was working as a guard at a warehouse in southern Israel when he was captured on October 7.Gaza’s Health Ministry said the latest slaughter brought the total death toll in Gaza since October 7 to 40,476, which includes over 16,000 children. The Health Ministry’s numbers are considered a low estimate since it doesn’t include the 10,000 people who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble, and it’s unclear how many Palestinians have died due to indirect causes.A letter written by a group of experts recently published in the British medical journal The Lancet estimated the total number of deaths in Gaza, including those killed by the Israeli military and indirect causes, could reach 186,000. They reached the numbers by using the death toll from the end of June, which was 37,396. A group of American doctors and nurses who volunteered in Gaza wrote a letter to President Biden last month, and they estimated that the actual death toll has already exceeded 92,000, or 4.2% of the population. The American medical professionals also detailed the horrific violence being committed by Israeli soldiers against children.
WHO: Israel Agrees to Limited Pauses in Certain Parts of Gaza for Polio Vaccination - The World Health Organization (WHO) said Thursday that Israel has agreed to limited pauses in its bombardment of Gaza in certain areas to allow the vaccination of children for polio, which has returned to the Strip due to the Israeli siege.Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s representative for the West Bank and Gaza, said the vaccinations would start in central Gaza on Sunday, where, according to the agreement, there will be a three-day pause in Israeli military attacks.An Israeli official said the pauses will only take place while children are being vaccinated, which the official said is expected to take seven hours per day. That means outside of that time, Israel’s onslaught will continue as usual.After central Gaza, the vaccination campaign will then move to southern Gaza, where there will be another three-day pause, and then to the north for the final three-day pause.Peeperkorn said the goal is to vaccinate 640,000 children under the age of ten, but he’s not sure if a limited pause would be enough. Medical officials have been calling for a full humanitarian ceasefire to administer the vaccines. “I’m not going to say this is the ideal way forward. But this is a workable way forward,” Peeperkorn said.Hamas said it supported the vaccine drive and was “ready to cooperate with international organizations to secure the campaign.”The push for the vaccinations came after a 10-month-old boy who developed paralysis in his left leg became the first confirmed case of polio in Gaza. According to the WHO, two other children have been paralyzed by polio. For each case of paralysis, there are likely hundreds of others who have been infected.
Israeli Forces Launch Major Assault on the West Bank, Killing at Least 10 Palestinians - Israeli forces launched a major assault on the West Bank early Wednesday that appears to be the largest Israeli operation in the occupied territory since the Second Intifada in the early 2000s.The assault focused on northern areas of the West Bank, including Jenin, Tulkarm, and Tubas, which were targeted by ground raids and airstrikes. So far, at least 10 Palestinians have been killed in the operation that the Israeli military has said will last several days.When the attack started, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the West Bank must be dealt with the same way as Gaza and called for evacuating Palestinians.“We must deal with the threat just as we deal with the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents and whatever steps are required,” Katz wrote on X. “This is a war for all terms and purposes and we must win it.”According to Haaretz, the Israeli military said it might allow residents of the areas it’s attacking to leave, signaling they could order evacuations.The Palestinian Ministry of Health has said that Israeli forces have besieged medical facilities in Jenin and obstructed the movement of vehicles. A spokesman for the Palestinian Red Crescent Society told CNN that “getting to the hospital in Jenin is difficult.”The Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, announced that its fighters were confronting Israeli forces with “heavy volleys of direct bullets” and claimed an Israeli drone was downed. So far, there have been no reports of Israeli casualties in the attack.Amid Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, violence in the West Bank has soared. Since October 7, over 650 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military and settlers, including 150 children.Some members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition are settlers themselves and have long pushed for the annexation of the West Bank, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has another minister position in the Defense Ministry that puts him in charge of expanding settlements.
Israeli settlers burn crops, attack Palestinians in occupied West Bank -- Israeli illegal settlers have assaulted Palestinians and their properties in different areas across the occupied West Bank. According to the Palestinian news agency Wafa, Israeli illegal settlers assaulted Palestinians and their properties in different areas across the occupied West Bank on Friday evening. Settlers set fire to a large area of cultivated land belonging to Palestinians from the village of Burqa, located east of Ramallah. The settlers reportedly came from the nearby settlement outpost of Oz Zion. Following the attack, the Israeli army entered Burqa, firing stun grenades and teargas canisters at villagers' homes and obstructing Palestinian firefighting teams from reaching the burning land, Wafa reported. In a separate incident, settlers took control of a spring water source near the village of Beit Furik, east of Nablus. In the eastern occupied West Bank, settlers targeted a Bedouin community northwest of Jericho. Hassan Malihat, general supervisor of al-Baydar Organisation for Defending Bedouin Rights, stated that settlers attacked the Bedouin community of Arab al-Malihat. He noted that these Bedouin communities have faced repeated attacks by armed settlers, aiming to expel them from their land forcibly. Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank have spiked since October 7, according to Palestinian sources. The methods employed by illegal settlers varied from firing live ammunition to beatings, stoning vehicles, and attacking homes, families, and farmers. In a landmark advisory opinion on July 19, the International Court of Justice declared Israel's decades-long occupation of Palestinian land "illegal" and called for the evacuation of all existing settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
IAEA Reports Iran Continues to Enrich Uranium at Below Weapons-Grade - On Thursday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its confidential, quarterly report on Iran’s civilian nuclear program. Almost immediately, as often occurs, the report was leaked to myriad media outlets.Nothing in the report was especially shocking but confirmed that Iran’s enrichment of uranium has continued. Absent any new deal, Iran is not meeting the myriad IAEA demands it offer “cooperation” far beyond that expected of any other nation.The media coverage of the report centers on the fact that Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, the highest level of enrichment Iran has attempted, has grown to 164.7 kilograms.The 60% enriched uranium obtained so far is well below the level necessary for producing nuclear weapons, which is over 90%. It is noteworthy that enrichment to even 60% is higher than would be allowed under the JCPOA nuclear deal.That’s not coincidental. After the US withdrew unilaterally from the JCPOA, Iran began making reversible “violations” in an attempt to compel the remaining parties to negotiate salvaging the deal without the US. Instead, the US has kept imposing new sanctions on Iran for violating a deal to which the US isn’t even a party. The lack of diplomatic progress reflects the unwillingness of the three European members of the deal to hold new talks. This is complicated by last month’s election of a new Iranian president, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
Saudi Arabia arrests 20,718 illegal residents in a week - Saudi Gazette — The Ministry of Interior announced the arrest of 20,718 illegal residents during inspection raids carried out by its officials in all regions of Saudi Arabia during last week. The arrests were made during the joint field security campaigns carried out by security forces and the concerned government agencies during the period between Aug. 22 and Aug. 28. The arrested persons included 13,248 violators of the Residency Law, 4688 violators of the Border Security Law, and 2,782 violators of the Labor Law. The total number of people who were arrested while trying to cross the border into the Kingdom stood at 744, of whom 37 percent were Yemeni nationals, 62 percent Ethiopian nationals, and one percent belonged to other nationalities while 69 people were arrested while attempting to leave the Kingdom illegally. Sixteen people, who were involved in transporting, sheltering, and employing violators, were also arrested. A total of 14,634 expatriates, including 13,532 men and 1,102 women, are currently undergoing various phases of legal procedures as part of punitive measures against them. A total of 5,361violators were referred to their diplomatic missions to obtain travel documents while 1982 violators were referred to complete their travel reservations whereas 12,410 violators were deported. The Ministry of Interior has warned that any person who facilitates the illegal entry of individuals into the Kingdom, transports them on its territory, provides them with shelter or any other assistance or service may be penalized with up to 15 years in prison and a fine of up to SR1 million, and that the vehicles used for transportation or houses used for giving shelter will be confiscated. The ministry urged the public to report any cases of violation by calling the number 911 in the regions of Makkah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province and the numbers 999 and 996 in the rest of the Kingdom’s regions.
Russia Launches Massive Missile and Drone Strikes Across Ukraine - On Monday, Russia launched one of its heaviest missile and drone barrages across Ukraine in an attack seen as retaliation for the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.According to Ukrainian officials, over 100 Russian missiles and drones were fired at 15 Ukrainian regions, an area that makes up more than half of the country. The Russian Defense Ministry said it was targeting energy infrastructure that supported the Ukrainian military.“This morning, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive strike by airborne and sea-launched long-range precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles at critical energy infrastructure of the Ukrainian military-industrial sector. All the designated targets were destroyed,” the ministry said in a statement, according to TASS. Four people were reported killed in the attacks, and more than a dozen were injured. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal called the Russians “terrorists” and urged Kyiv’s Western backers to allow the use of long-range NATO missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia.“In order to stop the barbaric shelling of Ukrainian cities, it is necessary to destroy the place from which the Russian missiles are launched,” Shmyhal said. “We count on the support of our allies and will definitely make Russia pay.”Also on Monday, Ukraine launched drone attacks against seven Russian regions. The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces shot down 20 Ukrainian drones. “On-duty air defenses intercepted and destroyed 20 fixed-wing drones. Nine of them were shot down over the Saratov Region, two over each of the Belgorod, Bryansk and Tula Regions, as well as one over each over the Oryol and Ryazan Regions,” the ministry said.The governor of Saratov said drone debris hit residential buildings, wounding at least four people. Ukraine has stepped up its drone attacks inside Russia as it’s pushing hard for the US and NATO to lift restrictions on the use of Western missiles. Ukraine has been using US-provided weapons in its attack on Kursk, which marks a significant escalation of the proxy war. The US says it won’t allow long-range strikes with US missiles, but Ukrainian officials believe that policy could change.
Ukraine Strikes 2 More Oil Depots Deep Into Russian Territory - The Ukrainian military claimed on Wednesday to have downed a Russian fighter jet over eastern Ukraine as Russia stepped up retaliation in Ukraine’s occupied eastern region shortly after Kyiv set another Russian oil depot on fire in a strike deep into Russian territory. Early on Wednesday, a Ukrainian drone attack set a Russian oil depot on fire over 100 miles from the Ukrainian border in the Rostov region. No casualties have been reported, and at the time of writing, firefighters were still trying to extinguish the blaze, according to Ukrainian media reports. Ukraine also attacked the Zenit oil depot, which houses an oil products reservoir, over 700 miles away in the Kirov region. Kyiv ties both depots to Moscow’s military-industrial complex. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine claimed to have shot down an Su-25 “Frogfoot” fighter jet over Ukraine’s eastern occupied Donetsk region. The latest escalation comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to advance his bold incursion into Russian territory that has been ongoing for nearly three weeks now, seeking to go on the offensive after being on the defensive since the March 2022 invasion. In Ukraine’s Donbass region, Russia is intensifying its offensive, with the Kyiv Post describing Ukrainian forces on this front “outgunned” and outnumbered. Citing Zelensky, the Kyiv Post said that reinforcements were in the process of being deployed, and two towns had already fallen to Russian forces. Earlier this week, Russia launched some 200 missiles at Ukraine, targeting energy installations, while Polish media report that Warsaw has deployed aircraft to defend Polish airspace against the onslaught, and a U.S. airbase in Germany remains on full alert in a state of preparedness. Parts of Kyiv were rendered without power and water earlier this week as a result of the Russian barrage.
Hungary Warns Against Allowing Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia - On Thursday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto warned against allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to launch long-range strikes inside Russia.“If long-range attacks hit the territory of Russia, then the risk of escalation will only increase,” Szijjarto wrote on Facebook ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. “We don’t want this.”The meeting of EU foreign ministers was supposed to be held in Budapest, but the EU’s top foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, moved it to Brusselsas a punishment for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent push for peace in Ukraine, which involved trips to Ukraine, Russia, and China.During the meeting, Borrell pushed for giving Ukraine the ability to launch long-range strikes in Russia. “The weaponry that we are providing to Ukraine has to have full use, and the restrictions have to be lifted in order for the Ukrainians to be able to target the places [from] where Russia is bombing them. Otherwise, the weaponry is useless,” he said, according toPOLITICO.The meeting was also attended by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who has been pushing hard for the US and NATO to lift all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons.POLITICO reported that Hungary also opposed a proposal from Borrell to sanction Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir for their rhetoric, which Borrell has called “an incitement to war crimes.”After the meeting, Szijjarto described Borrell’s proposals as “reckless” and said Hungary wanted peace. “We do not want more weapons in Ukraine, we do not want more deaths, we do not want an escalation of the war, we do not want an expansion of the crisis in the Middle East. Today, we continue to stand for common sense and peace,” he said.
Ukraine Says Its Biggest Problem Is Western Concern for Escalation - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that the biggest problem Kyiv has faced in its war against Russia is the Western concern for escalation and the risk of provoking Moscow.“Ever since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the biggest problem Ukraine has been facing is the domination of the concept of escalation in the decision-making processes among our partners,” Kuleba said, according to Reuters.The foreign minister’s comments come as Ukraine is pushing hard for the US to allow long-range strikes inside Russian territory using US-provided missiles. Russia has strongly warned against the move and suggested that it would risk World War III.“The war is always about a lot of hardware: money, weapons, resources but the real problems are always here, in the heads,” Kuleba said. “Most of our partners are afraid of discussing the future of Russia… This is something that is very upsetting because if we do not speak about the future of the source of threat, then we cannot build strategy.”Throughout the war, the US and NATO have taken steps that they previously ruled out over escalation concerns, such as providing tanks and fighter jets. The most recent significant escalation was President Biden’s decision to give Ukraine the greenlight to use US weapons in attacks on Russian border regions. A few months later, Ukraine launched its invasion of Kursk. Kuleba made the comments during a conversation with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who expressed support for allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes with NATO weapons. Sikorski said NATO should “let Ukraine fight with whatever it has, with whatever we have delivered them, and let’s deliver them more.”
IAEA Chief Warns of Threat to Nuclear Plant in Russia's Kursk - Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),led a mission to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces on August 6.Grossi warned of the danger of a nuclear incident amid the fighting in the region. “The danger or the possibility of a nuclear accident has emerged near here,” he told reporters.The IAEA visit came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine had fired drones at the plant. Kyiv denied the charge, but Grossi said he saw evidence of nearby drone attacks.“I was informed about the impact of the drones. I was shown some of the remnants of them and signs of the impact they had,” Grossi said.According to Reuters, the IAEA chief warned that the KNPP was more exposed than most modern nuclear plants because it lacks a containment dome and a protective structure.“This means that the core of the reactor containing nuclear material is protected just by a normal roof. This makes it extremely exposed and fragile, for example, to an artillery impact or a drone or a missile,” he said. “So this is why we believe that a nuclear power plant of this type, so close to a point of contact or a military front, is an extremely serious fact that we take very seriously.”
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