inventories build across the board even with distillates exports at an 18 month high due to a 1.134 million barrel per day drop in demand for fuel
US oil prices fell for the first time in five weeks as ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt tempered the geopolitical risk premium underlying recent oil price strength….after rising 4.5% to a five month high of $86.91 a barrel last week on threats to supply from increasing hostilities in eastern Europe and the Middle East, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery fell nearly 3% in the opening minutes on Monday, after Israel reduced its troops in Gaza and sent a team to Egypt for talks with Hamas ahead of the Eid holidays, but recovered from a morning low of $84.69 to settle down just 48 cents at $86.43 a barrel, as the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas had reduced somewhat the geopolitical risk premium.…oil prices continued to trend lower in overnight trading amid ongoing talks for a ceasefire in Gaza, but rallied mid-morning after the commander of Iran’s navy said it could close the Strait of Hormuz, if deemed necessary. but faded again late to settle $1.20 lower at $85.23 a barrel as traders kept their eyes on the talks for a Gaza ceasefire….oil prices moved higher overnight after Israel’s Foreign Minister stated that Israel would attack Iran, if Iran attacked its territory in retribution for Israel’s deadly attack on its consulate in Syria, then slid back to unchanged early Wednesday morning after a hotter than expected consumer price report took demand-seducing rate-cuts off the table, then fell further after EIA data showed crude oil and fuel inventories swelled by much more than was expected on weak demand and lower oil exports, but rebounded to settle 98 cents higher at $86.21 a barrel after an Israeli airstrike killed the three adult sons and four grandchildren of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, clouding the prospect for a ceasefire between Israel and the militant group…oil prices rose in early Asian trading Thursday, on forecasts for strong demand in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, and rising concerns over global oil supply routes in the Middle East, but erased those gains early in the New York session, weighed down by the expectations that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September, instead of sooner, following a third consecutive higher than expected consumer inflation reading, and settled $1.19 lower at $85.02 a barrel, as weak domestic demand for fuel and concern over the effect of inflation on consumer spending prompted a pullback…however, oil prices surged 2% in early trading Friday, on intelligence reports suggesting that Iran would attack Israel within 48 hours, but pared those early gains to settle 64 cents higher at $85.66 a barrel, with trading shaped by the push-and-pull of U.S. macroeconomic indicators on the one hand and the escalating rhetoric between Israel and Iran on the other…oil prices thus finished 1.4% lower for the week, after nearing a six-month high early in the week on concern that Iran would retaliate for a Israeli attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus…
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the 2nd time in three weeks, as producers exited the winter with almost 39% more gas in storage than normal at this time of year… after rising 1.2% to $1.785 per mmBTU last week as more natural gas producers restrained their output, the contract price for natural gas for May delivery opened two cents higher on Monday and rose gradually throughout the session, as production figures remained modest and weather forecasts were neutral, and settled 5.9 cents higher at $1.844 per mmBTU, amid expectations for a seasonally modest storage injection, as lower production offset the impact of mild spring weather…natural gas prices opened 4 cents higher on Tuesday, supported by maintenance-induced declines in production, but failed to maintain momentum and settled just 2.8 cents higher at $1.872 per mmBTU, as speculation about potential disruptions to LNG exports out of Corpus Christi tempered early gains…natural gas prices opened 4 cents higher again on Wednesday on continued maintenance-induced production declines and on strong LNG export demand, but again backed off the early highs to settle 1.3 cents higher at $1.885 per mmBTU, with price gains limited by the huge amount of surplus of gas in storage and negative spot power and gas prices in parts of Texas, California and Arizona over recent weeks….natural gas prices opened 6 cents lower on Thursday, as traders apparently anticipated a bearish storage report, and continued falling to settle down 12.1 cents at a two week low of $1.764 per mmBTU following a larger-than-expected inventory increase and forecasts for benign weather and weak demand ahead….natural gas prices held near that level in Friday’s trading, on worries about a huge storage surplus and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and settled six-tenths of a cent higher at $1.770 per mmBTU, and thus ended 0.8% lower for the week..
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 5th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 24 billion cubic feet to 2,283 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 435 billion cubic feet, or 23.5% above the 1848 billion cubic feet that were in storage on April 5th of last year, and 633 billion cubic feet, or 38.4% more than the five-year average of 1,650 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 5th of April over the most recent five years…the 24 billion cubic foot addition to US natural gas working storage for the cited week was more than the 15 billion cubic foot addition that the market was expecting, and it was also more than the 11 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding first week of April 2023, while it matched the average 24 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that has been typical for the first week of April over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 5th indicated that after a big drop in our oil exports, we again had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for 9th time in eleven weeks and for the 17th time in the past 25 weeks, despite a big jump in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 183,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,434,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 85,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 1,314,000 barrels per day to average 2,708,000 barrels per day, which when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 3,726,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 5th, 1,131,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 393,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a rounded total of 17,219,000 barrels per day during the April 5th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,782,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 5th, an average of 115,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 919,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending April 5th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production was 518,000 barrels per day more than what what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week…To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [-518,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…Moreover, since 360,000 barrels of oil supply per day could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 878,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, and therefore useless...however, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing (as is obvious to anyone who watches oil prices), and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)
This week’s average 919,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 834,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 85,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the eighteenth SPR increase in twenty-five weeks, following nearly continuous withdrawals over the prior 39 months… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,508,000 barrels per day last week, which was 4.8% more than the 6,208,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 436,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did last week…US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure matches that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and is also 35.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 88.3% of their capacity while processing those 15,782,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 5th, down from their 88.6% utilization rate of a week earlier, and a below normal operating rate for early April, as US refineries have lagged normal operating rates since arctic cold penetrated to the Gulf Coast in mid January and froze off some operations… the 15,782,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.7% more than the 15,585,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending April 7th of 2023, but 2.0% less than the 16,100,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 5th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was also at a below normal 87.5%..
With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 538,000 barrels per day to 9,442,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 5th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 767,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was 1.2% less than the 9,557,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending April 7th of last year, and 7.1% less than the gasoline production of 10,169,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending April 5th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 4,639,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 208,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After seven production increases in the past eight weeks, our distillates output was 1.2% more than the 4,583,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 7th of 2023, but 7.9% less than the 5,038,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 5th, 2019…
Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the second time in ten weeks, increasing by 715,000 barrels to 228,531,000 barrels during the week ending April 5th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,256,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 624,000 barrels per day to 8,612,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 242,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 115,000 barrels per day to 978,000 barrels per day.…After thirty-one gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.8% above last April 7th’s gasoline inventories of 222,245,000 barrels, but were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for 3rd time in twelve weeks, following eight consecutive prior increases, increasing by 1,659,000 barrels to 117,728,000 barrels over the week ending April 5th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,268,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, fell by 510,000 barrels per day to 2,985,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 59,000 barrels per day to 163,000 barrels per day, even as our exports of distillates rose by 184,000 barrels per day to an eighteen month high of 1,580,000 barrels per day.…Even with 30 inventory decreases over the past fifty-two weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 4.7% above the 112,445,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 7th of 2023, but were about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after our exports of crude oil dropped by nearly a third, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 17th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 24th time in the past year, increasing by 5,841,000 barrels over the week, from 451,417,000 barrels on March 29th to 457,258,000 barrels on April 5th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,210,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 2% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were 31.8% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell due to higher exports relating to the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this April 5th were still 2.8% less than the 470,549,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on April 7th of 2023, but were 10.9% more than the 412,371,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on April 8th of 2022, while still 8.2% less than the 498,313,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on April 9th of 2021, after refinery damage from winter storm Uri left even more crude oil remaining after 2020’s pandemic precautions had left a glut of oil unused…
This Week’s Rig Count
In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 12th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 5th) and this week’s (April 12th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 5th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 14th of April, 2023…
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Federal Plan Would Open Ohio's Only National Forest to Fracking - Center for Biological Diversity— A new Bureau of Land Management plan to open 40,000 acres of the Wayne National Forest to fracking for oil and gas looks almost identical to one a federal judge rejected in 2020. The public can comment on the plan in writing or during online meetings Monday and Tuesday.Fossil fuel companies have targeted Ohio’s only national forest for years and in 2016 the BLM first attempted to auction off oil and gas leases in the Wayne. The new proposal, released in late March, is nearly identical to the fracking plan blocked in 2020 after conservation groups challenged it in federal court.“It’s hugely disappointing that federal officials are sticking with this climate-destroying plan to sell off Ohio’s precious public lands to the oil and gas industry, even as flooding, wildfires and heat waves intensify with climate change,” said Wendy Park, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Our government needs to prioritize people, wildlife and our climate over corporate profits and block fracking in the Wayne once and for all. Ohio residents have the chance to speak out over the next few weeks, and I hope land managers get an earful about this reckless fracking proposal.”Fracking threatens the Wayne’s rivers, forests and endangered plants and animals ― the same things Congress intended to protect when it created the national forest in the 1930s.“Fracking the Wayne National Forest would seriously jeopardize Ohio’s ability to fight climate change. This single oil and gas project threatens to generate enough greenhouse gas pollution to cancel out all of the Wayne’s carbon storage services for the next 30 years,” said Nathan Johnson, senior attorney with the Ohio Environmental Council. “Leasing the Wayne to the fossil fuel industry will scar this public forest and pollute our air with toxic chemicals. We should be doing everything we can to protect the public’s access to safe and beautiful public lands — especially in Ohio, where public land is in relatively short supply compared to so many other states.”In 2017 the Center for Biological Diversity, Ohio Environmental Council, Heartwood and the Sierra Club sued the BLM and the U.S. Forest Service over their environmental assessment authorizing fracking in the Wayne. In March 2020 a federal judge ruled that the agencies had ignored fracking’s potential threats to endangered Indiana bats, the Little Muskingum River and the region’s air quality. The judge prohibited any leasing or fracking in the Wayne until the agencies conducted additional studies that considered these harms.Despite the court order, the new proposal ignores how industrial-scale fracking will imperil the Wayne ecosystem. The BLM acknowledges that greenhouse gas emissions under the fracking plan would equal the emissions from 33,000 gas-powered vehicles. “If the BLM opens 40,000 acres of the Wayne to fracking as planned, these beautiful forests could become littered with well pads, gathering lines and other fracking infrastructure,” said Loraine McCosker of Save Ohio Parks. “The Wayne National Forest provides so many ecosystem services to the region, including non-timber forest products and recreation. Allowing this region to be fracked will destroy the forest integrity and harm the many communities in the area.”
Is Ohio State teaching 'How to Blow Up a Pipeline'? — Late last month, Amy Andryszak, the president and CEO of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, sent a letter to Gov. Michael DeWine (R-OH) in response to seeing The Ohio State University initially had plans to add How to Blow Up a Pipeline to its curriculum.The book, written by Swedish professor of human ecology and climate change activist Andreas Malm in 2021, advocates the climate social justice movement to ramp up its tactics “in the face of ecological collapse.” Part of its argument includes advocating the destruction of equipment and tools used in the production of fossil fuels.The New York Times review of the book details Malm’s argument that because the ruling class response to climate change has been inadequate, the “proportionate and rational response should be to target fossil fuel infrastructure: Destroy fences around a power plant; occupy pipeline routes, as protesters did for the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines.” And do the same at coal mines.In a Jan. 14 story titled "How This Climate Activist Justifies Political Violence," Malm told the New York Times that he wanted sabotage of fossil fuel operations to be on a much bigger scale than it is now.His book, which does not give actual instructions for destroying a pipeline, does ask why the climate justice movement stayed so peaceful. When questioned by the reporter how confident he is that when you open the door to political violence, it stays at the level of property and not people, this is how the conversation went: I want sabotage to happen on a much larger scale than it does now. I can’t guarantee that it won’t come with accidents. But what do I know? I haven’t personally blown up a pipeline, and I can’t foretell the future. Andryszak cast doubt in her letter to DeWine on the wisdom of Ohio taxpayers financing a curriculum that includes a book that unabashedly advocated violence of an industry where thousands of Ohioans are employed in one of the country’s top natural gas producers.“The teaching of this book anywhere, but especially in a publicly funded state university, is very concerning, should be investigated by the State and, in our opinion, prohibited,” she wrote. She added: “The activities advocated in the book can result in death, danger, and serious injury to those perpetrating the acts and innocent bystanders.” The class Geography 3597.03 according to the university was initially established in 2008 as a “team-taught, cross-disciplinary course in English and Geography about ‘Environmental citizenship’.” However, Geography 3597.03 had not been team-taught in a decade, and, over time, the course content and focus evolved considerably. Indeed, “climate justice” has been the de facto but unofficial title of the course for the past four years. That change from Geography to Climate became official when the course was offered last fall. Joel Wainwright, professor in the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University, who designed and is scheduled to teach the class, said in an interview conducted by the university’s Global Arts + Humanities program manager he “was a Marxist who shares a similar background with Geoff Mann, professor of geography at Simon Fraser University, with whom he co-authored Climate Leviathan” a book they published in 2018. Wainwright wrote in the course description that “while this course starts—as it must—with a sober, scientific assessment of the current crisis of the Earth and humanity, marked by economic insecurity, a lack of faith in political parties, species loss, and climate change, ultimately, this course aims at cultivating the imagination.” Wainwright said one of the educational goals of the class was for “successful students to integrate approaches to the theme by making connections to out-of-classroom experiences with academic knowledge or across disciplines and/or to work they have done in previous classes and that they anticipate doing in future.” The course was approved by university in October and is seemingly still listed for the fall. Yet Chris Booker, the university director of Media and PR, told me that “The course in question has not been offered since autumn 2022 and is not listed for summer or autumn 2024.”
Odor of natural gas smelled across Northeast Ohio: What Columbia Gas is saying - -- 'Our crews are aware of a gas odor in some parts of our service territory. The situation is safe, and the source of the odor is known,' according to Columbia Gas. A text alert was sent to residents of Lorain County around noon Wednesday regarding a natural gas odor in parts of the area that has also been reported by residents across Northeast Ohio. Here’s the alert: "A natural gas supplier added too much odorant to the system causing a natural gas odor without an actual leak. Contact 911 and your gas supplier for any odor." On Wednesday night, a Parma Fire Department spokesperson said the department has received "over 30 calls" regarding the smell. "We caution residents that they will likely smell a gas odor in their homes even after using appliances," the department said in a news release. "We want to reassure the public that their appliances are most likely functioning properly. "What we're asking is that you open up the windows and you ventilate your home now if that smell does not go away in 20, 30, 40 minutes and you continue getting that smell even after all of your appliances are off, that would be when we're urging you to call the fire department, that would be the sign of a gas leak," The Elyria Township Fire Department posted on social media that the department has been "experiencing an increase in natural gas odor calls" and shared the statement from Columbia Gas."Please be advised that we are receiving numerous calls for an odor of gas inside residences," The Brunswick Hills Fire Department wrote on Facebook. "We are responding to the calls in the order in which they are received. If you smell and odor of gas, do not hesitate to call 911." Meanwhile in Richland County, the Mansfield Fire Department says they have received "numerous calls reporting an odor of natural gas in businesses and residences" throughout the city. Here's their statement: "Our crews have responded to all of these incidents and used advanced metering devices to check for the presence of explosive gases. All checks have come back negative; however, the distinct odor of gas is present. "We are currently in contact with representatives from Columbia Gas to determine potential causes for the odor. Columbia Gas of Ohio provided an updated statement Thursday amid ongoing concerns about natural gas odor in several parts of Northeast Ohio. Stemming from the gas odor event in northeastern Ohio, we have been hearing concerns about the use of mercaptan in natural gas pipelines and its potential hazards. Mercaptan is an organic and naturally occurring compound. Because natural gas is odorless and colorless, utility companies add mercaptan as a safety measure to give natural gas its characteristic rotten egg odor. Federal regulations require natural gas companies to odorize natural gas. The amount of mercaptan added to natural gas is very small, but even a small amount of the compound can create a strong smell. The small amount of mercaptan in natural gas is not hazardous to human health.
ODNR responds to Austin Master Services contamination concerns – Martins Ferry residents say they’re worried about contamination after they saw floodwaters approaching Austin Master Services, an oil and gas waste management company.Residents told 7NEWS they’re worried the waste was leaking into the floodwaters during the severe weather earlier this month.Attorney General Dave Yost requested a temporary restraining order against the company last month because of the accumulation of dangerous waste materials exceeding the permitted limit. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) confirmed to 7 News today that staff was aware of flooding concerns.“ODNR staff was onsite during the situation with flood waters last week and confirmed no impact to the materials occurred,” ODNR Communications Chief Andy Chow said.Chow also specified the court granted a preliminary injunction on April 3, adding that Austin Masters would have 14 days to comply, which would include removing excess waste. This is a developing story so stay with 7NEWS for updates.
Austin Master Frack Waste has Until Apr 17 to Regain Compliance -- Marcellus Drilling News - Martins Ferry (OH) Mayor John Davies continues to make noise about the currently shuttered Austin Master Services (AMS) frack waste processing facility in his city. Two weeks ago, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took legal action seeking to force AMS to correct “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding the storage of oil and gas waste that he says threatens the Ohio River and Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply (see Ohio AG Sues Austin Master Services for Unsafe Storage of Wastewater). Media accounts report that AMS has stored at least 10,000 tons of fracking waste (drill cuttings) at the Martins Ferry facility. It’s rated to hold 600 tons.
Ohio Village in Belmont County Offered $7,500/Acre Signing Bonus - Marcellus Drilling News - It’s not often we get insight into the latest lease offers floating around. Leasing activity is definitely picking up in the Ohio Utica. We came across what has to be one of (if not THE) highest per-acre bonus offers we’ve seen in Ohio. The Village of Barnesville, in Belmont County, sought lease offers for 177 acres of village-owned property. The village received two offers. One of the offers came from Gulfport Energy, which offered $7,500 per acre as a signing bonus plus 20% royalties. Barnesville turned it down!
ODNR Testing Athens Co. Water Wells for Possible Injection Leaks - Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) “temporarily” suspended the operations of four fracking waste injection wells in Athens County last September (see ODNR Temporarily Shuts Down 4 Injection Wells in Athens County). ODNR said, with no solid evidence, that the wells presented an “imminent danger” to health and the environment. ODNR is finally about to test residential water wells in the area (i.e., do real science) to determine if there has been any kind of “communication” or contamination from the injection wells with area production and water wells.
ODNR Using Drones to Sniff Out Orphaned Wells in Bowling Green - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management, has hired environmental company Verdantas LLC to fly drones over Bowling Green (Wood County), OH, to try and identify any hidden orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells. Residents of Bowling Green received a letter from ODNR alerting them to the upcoming drone flights.
Former Colfor Mfg. property transfers twice in one week - The Carroll County Messenger - The former Colfor Manufacturing facility in Brown Township was transferred to new owners March 27 and two days later, transferred again. According to a real estate transfer recorded in the Carroll County Recorder’s office March 27, Reserve Energy Exploration Company of Chagrin Falls purchased two tracts, 2.97 acres and 11.143 acres for $2 million. The same property was transferred to EOG Resources March 29 with no money exchanged. The facility is located at the intersection of SR 43 and 183 near Malvern. According to the Reserve Energy Exploration website, the company is a privately-owned family-held business with a focus on the development of natural gas and renewable energy projects. The site states the Reserve Energy team identifies productive resource areas and secures land in sought-after markets. Areas of development include natural gas and oil exploration, wind energy development and solar energy development. The company’s headquarters is listed as Gottschalk Park Suite, Chagrin Falls. The company has been in oil and gas business since 1972. The Messenger attempted to reach the company by phone and email. Neither method was successful. EOG Resources was born in 1999, declaring its independence from Enron Corp., according to the company’s website. EOG is one of the largest crude oil and natural gas exploration companies in the United States, focusing on being among the lowest cost, highest return and lowest emissions producers, playing a significant role in the long-term future of energy, according to the website. The company has increased operations in the Appalachian Basin in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia in the Utica Shale play and operates several wells in the Carroll County area. It also operates in shale plays in the northwestern United States, Texas and Oklahoma as well as Trinidad & Tobago. Nine offices are listed on the website, including Artesia, Corpus Christi, Denver, Fort Worth, Midland, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Trinidad & Tobago and the corporate office in Houston.
EOG Resources Picks Up New Regional HQ in Carroll County, OH, $2M -- Marcellus Drilling News - It appears that EOG Resources, with headquarters in Houston, Texas, is about to establish a regional headquarters/operation in Malvern (Carroll County), Ohio. We say “appears” because we have strong evidence, but we don’t (yet) have confirmation. EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns a huge 430,000+ acres of leases in the Ohio Utica. EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. It makes sense the company would establish a regional office in the Utica near where it drills.
Ohio Oil, Appalachia Gas Plays Ripe for Consolidation - Buyers are “starved” for top-tier natural gas assets, experts say. With Henry Hub gas prices near record lows, many owners haven’t been willing to sell.But natural gas-focused M&A activity is poised to ignite as new U.S. LNG exports come online, gas demand grows and the outlook for commodity prices improves, said Daniel Crowley, a managing director for investment bank Houlihan Lokey’s oil and gas group. “We have a nice contango in the curve. We have a starved buyer universe,” Crowley said during Hart Energy’s DUG GAS+ Conference and Expo. “We’re really setting ourselves up for a significant increase in A&D activity.” The upstream sector saw a massive spike in M&A activity in 2023, including multibillion-dollar acquisitions by both U.S. supermajors Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. Dealmaking has spilled over into 2024, centered on the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico.The vast majority of recent upstream deals have centered around oil-producing assets and acreage.Oil prices, generally speaking, have been more stable than natural gas prices over the past year. Price stability has helped fuel a greater volume of transactions for oily assets.Natural gas prices have been much more volatile: Henry Hub prices should average around $2.36/Mcf this year, a 10% decline from 2023 and a 64% decline from 2022 levels.Henry Hub prices averaged $6.67/Mcf in 2022, when energy markets were stretched thin between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global economy reemerging from the COVID-19 recession.Gas-price instability caused a disconnect between what buyers were willing to pay for gassy assets and terms sellers were willing to accept.But with greater clarity on future gas demand, LNG export growth and increasing prices, gas deals have started to cross the finish line.The biggest example is Chesapeake Energy’s combination with Southwestern Energy in a $11.5 billion merger.Both Chesapeake and Southwestern have footprints in Appalachia and in the Louisiana Haynesville Shale. The merger is expected to create the nation’s largest pure-play gas producer.In the Haynesville, Rockcliff Energy II sold to Tokyo Gas Co. and partner Castleton Commodities in a $2.7 billion deal. The deal gives Tokyo Gas and its U.S. upstream subsidiary, TG Natural Resources, a deeper footprint in East Texas.There are quite a few other gassy properties being shopped around the Haynesville, including notable packages from Chevron and Tellurian.But Appalachia, with its low-cost and bountiful gas supplies and unique infrastructure challenges, could also be a hotspot for gas-weighted M&A in the next two years, Crowley told Hart Energy.“In the conversations I have with some producers in Appalachia, people are very carefully watching that contango and sort of queueing up to come to the market at the right time,” Crowley said.
8 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 1 – 7 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The new permits report for two weeks ago showed just four new permits, which we called “below dismal” (see 4 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 25 – 31). Last week, for April 1 – 7, there were eight new permits issued. However, they were all issued in Pennsylvania. Both Ohio and West Virginia failed to issue any new permits last week. Coterra Energy scored the most new permits last week with three, all of them for Susquehanna County, PA. CNX Resources received two new permits, both in Westmoreland County. Range Resources also received two permits, one in Allegheny County, the other in Washington County. And Repsol received one new permit ALLEGHENY COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | REPSOL | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY
PA Slaps Equitrans with $1.1M Fine for 2022 Rager Mountain Gas Leak -- Marcellus Drilling News - In November 2022, one of the ten natural gas storage wells at the Equitrans Rager Mountain Gas Storage Area in Jackson Township, Cambria County (in Pennsylvania), began to leak. Equitrans is the owner/operator of Rager Mountain. The well leaked roughly 100 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of gas into the atmosphere (see Equitrans Gas Storage Well in Cambria County, PA is Leaking). It took two weeks for the leak to get fixed after it had leaked an estimated 1.4 billion cubic feet into the air (see Storage Well Leak Fix in Cambria County Failed, Leaked 1.4 Bcf). It turned out to be less — around 1.1 Bcf of leaked methane in total. Now, a year and a half later, the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) is fining Equitrans $1.1 million for the accidental leak.
Bloomfield Couple Protest Pipeline By Hunkering Inside Wooden Possum - — Who needs a Trojan Horse when you have a giant possum? Jane Califf and Ted Glick – a married couple from Bloomfield, New Jersey who have been together for 45 years – recently had a unique idea to raise awareness about a controversial gas pipeline in Virginia: use a huge, wooden possum to block construction crews from accessing the site.On Wednesday, Califf and Glick locked themselves inside the wooden critter on Honeysuckle Road in Roanoke County, temporarily blocking work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline.Here’s some background on the project, according to its website:“The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project is a natural gas pipeline system that spans approximately 303 miles from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia – and as an interstate pipeline will be regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission … With a vast supply of natural gas from Marcellus and Utica shale production, the MVP is expected to provide up to two million dekatherms per day (two billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day) of firm transmission capacity to markets in the mid- and south Atlantic regions of the United States. The MVP will extend from the Equitrans transmission system in Wetzel County, West Virginia, to Transcontinental Gas Pipeline Company’s (Transco) Zone 5 compressor station 165 in Pittsylvania County, Virginia … As designed, the pipeline will be 42 inches in diameter and will require approximately 50 feet of permanent easement (with up to 125 feet of temporary easement during construction). The MVP project will require three compressor stations, located in Wetzel, Braxton, and Fayette counties of West Virginia.”After being delayed for years by legal and permitting challenges – and seeing its estimated cost more than double to upwards of $7.6 billion – the project is back on track for completion this year. Supporters say the pipeline will help to meet a crucial need for domestic energy, the Cardinal News reported.
Sierra Club Pressures Connecticut to Block Iroquois Compressor - Marcellus Drilling News -- As we told you earlier this week, the radicals who run the New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation (DEC) are gearing up to block the Iroquois Gas Transmission system from completing its Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project (see NY DEC Attempting to Use Draft Reg to Block Iroquois Compressor). The ExC project increases horsepower at three compression stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, flowing more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. In what is clearly a case of collusion, the Sierra Club is pressuring Connecticut political leaders to block the expansion of the compressor in that state even as the DEC is blocking the compressors in NY.
Natural Gas Prices Said Still Too Low for E&Ps to Bring On More Production - U.S. natural gas exploration and production (E&P) companies have reduced output in response to high inventories and the low price environment, but now the query is, when might production return? Price will tell, according to analysts. Lower 48 natural gas output has fallen below 100 Bcf/d, down from record highs around 107 Bcf/d early this year, after Chesapeake Energy Corp., EQT Corp. and others eased activity to address an oversupplied market. A major question for the market in April has been whether EQT, the largest gas producer in the country, would reverse its cuts of 1 Bcf/d of gross production made in late February. The company had said it would maintain the curtailment through March and reassess market conditions afterward.
Chesapeake-Southwestern Merger Delayed as FTC Requests More Info --The planned merger of Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company has been delayed due to a request for more information from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). In a Form 8-K filed Friday, Chesapeake said that the merger is expected to be completed in the second half of the year due to the FTC’s request for additional information and documentary materials relating to the agency’s review of the merger. The merger completion, originally targeted for the second quarter, is still subject to the fulfillment of the other closing conditions, including approvals of Chesapeake and Southwestern shareholders. Chesapeake and Southwestern in January announced in a joint statement that they entered into an agreement to merge in an all-stock transaction valued at $7.4 billion, or $6.69 per share, based on Chesapeake’s closing price on January 10. The statement said that the combined company will assume a new name at closing and that its board of directors will increase to 11 members and will initially be comprised of seven representatives from Chesapeake and four representatives from Southwestern. The two companies said that the strategic combination will create a premier energy company underpinned by a leading natural gas portfolio adjacent to the highest demand markets, premium inventory, resilient free cash flow, and an investment grade quality balance sheet. “Chesapeake and Southwestern will continue to work cooperatively with the FTC in its review of the merger,” the filing said. In March, a group of U.S. senators and representatives wrote a public letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan urging it to investigate and block all anticompetitive Big Oil mergers, specifically naming the Chesapeake-Southwestern agreement, among others.
More demand, more gas: Inside the Southeast’s dirty power push - Utilities across the U.S. Southeast are claiming that a massive buildout of data centers and factories will force them to construct gigawatts of new fossil gas-fired power plants over the coming decade — a fleet large enough and dirty enough to potentially put U.S. climate goals out of reach. However, critics of these plans say that utilities have cleaner and cheaper alternatives to reliably manage surging new power demand, and that state utility regulators in Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee need to require them to explore those options.For the moment, though, these utilities, which serve tens of millions of customers, appear set on a fossil-fueled power expansion that also promises them additional profits for years to come — profits that environmentalists and consumer advocates argue will be reaped at the expense of the climate and their customers.“The problem we face now is that everyone is searching for power,” said Simon Mahan, executive director of the Southern Renewable Energy Association. “Utilities across the Southeast are scrambling to find every last megawatt they can get…. They are trying desperately to get these new large-load customers, because they make more money when they sell more power.”In some regions, these potential new customers are big data centers to serve the skyrocketing demand for enterprise computing power, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining. In others, they’re factories for electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels supported by billions of dollars of federal incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act.The exact figures vary from region to region, but most of the utilities are now forecasting high single-digit percentage growth rates every year through the end of the decade. Demand for electricity over the past decade and a half has stayed flat or even declined, so growth on that order would be a sea change for utilities.Whether this new electricity demand will emerge at the speed and scale these utilities are predicting is unclear; utilities have overestimated demand growth before. Some critics have accused utilities of seizing on hype around the rapid expansion of energy-intensive artificial intelligence technology to win approval for gas plants that are not really necessary.But even if these projections are accurate, critics say new fossil gas plants aren’t the answer. They argue that gas plants are polluting, unreliable and likely to become stranded assets in the near future, as climate imperatives and cheaper clean-energy resources force them to close before utilities have recouped their costs.
Louisiana Court Grants Approval for DTM to Proceed with Natural Gas Crossings in Blow to Energy Transfer - A Louisiana appeals court on Wednesday ruled that Energy Transfer LP may not block DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) from building natural gas pipeline crossings underneath its system, with one judge stating that Energy Transfer’s property rights do not extend “to the center of the earth.” In a unanimous ruling by the three-judge panel, the Louisiana Second Circuit Court of Appeal said land rights granted to Energy Transfer for the ETC Tiger Pipeline LLC do not extend beyond dimensions aimed at preventing uses that could damage or interfere with its pipeline. Energy Transfer had argued its 42-inch diameter gas pipeline had exclusive rights under agreements with a landowner. The Dallas-based company also cited concerns about safety. A year ago, a division of the 42nd Judicial...
We Head into Summer with Extra NatGas Supplies from Warm Winter - Marcellus Drilling News -- According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), working natural gas inventories in the U.S. ended the winter heating season (November 1–March 31) at 2,290 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 39% more than the previous five-year (2019–23) average. Why is there so much in inventory? Warm weather all winter led to less usage of natural gas. Couple that with high production and it’s a prescription for too much gas in inventory, which leads to (you guessed it), low prices.
Steep Contango Drawing Attention to U.S. Natural Gas Salt Storage Limits - Late winter salt storage constraints that helped steepen U.S. natural gas forward curves to near record levels have started to ease with the onset of the injection season, likely providing a tailwind to prompt prices. NGI December forward prices for benchmark Henry Hub stood at a $1.693/MMBtu premium to May at the start of April, with May priced at $1.769 and December at $3.462, NGI’s Forward Look data show. That’s the steepest premium for May-December at the end of the injection season over the past 10 years. The factors driving this year’s contango, where forward prices are at a higher premium than prompt, are well established. The warmest winter on record stalled heating demand, swelling Lower 48 gas inventories to crash cash prices to 25-year lows.
Natural Gas in Crosshairs as DOE Aiming to Decarbonize Commercial, Residential Buildings - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has unveiled a national blueprint to slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from buildings by 65% by 2035 and 90% by 2050, with potentially significant implications for natural gas demand. Residential and commercial buildings account for roughly 29% of total U.S. natural gas consumption and 42% of end-use sector gas consumption, according to the plan’s authors. Buildings also consumed 38% of total energy across all primary sources (petroleum, natural gas, coal, renewable energy and nuclear power) in 2022, and 74% of electricity generated from primary sources, the DOE team highlighted. Natural gas is the leading source of electricity in the United States, accounting for about 40% of generation.
US weekly LNG exports climb to 25 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose in the week ending April 3 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.The agency said in its weekly report that 25 LNG carriers departed the US plants between March 28 and April 3, three shipments more compared to the week before.Citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the EIA said the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 89 Bcf.Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals fell 3 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week, averaging 12.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana fell 4.1 percent (0.4 Bcf/d), and deliveries to South Texas were essentially unchanged at 2.8 Bcf/d.The agency said that deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat at 1.2 Bcf/d.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the week under review.Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal also shipped four cargoes during the period.Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility, the Cove Point terminal, the Elba Island terminal, and the Freeport LNG facility each sent two cargoes,Freeport LNG, south of Houston, Texas is currently operating with only one of three trains.This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 42 cents from $1.44 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.86/MMBtu this Wednesday.The agency said the price of the May 2024 NYMEX contract increased 12.3 cents, from $1.718/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.841/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the EIA, the price of the 12-month strip averaging May 2024 through April 2025 futures contracts climbed 9.1 cents to $2.818/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures were mixed this report week.Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia increased 2 cents to a weekly average of $9.51/MMBtu.Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 32 cents to a weekly average of $8.42/MMBtu.In the same week last year (week ending April 5, 2023), the prices were $12.96/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.96/MMBtu at TTF, the agency said.
DOE urged to widen reviews of gas exports - Dozens of environmental groups joined together Monday to push the Department of Energy to make sure climate change and domestic energy prices are major priorities in the agency’s new analysis of liquefied natural gas exports.The groups, led by the Sierra Club, also called for a focus on environmental justice — the effort to reduce pollution that takes a disproportionate toll on communities of color and certain rural and low-income areas.It’s “past time for a robust review of LNG export proposals and our frontline communities, domestic consumers, and manufacturers are actively suffering as a result,” the groups said in a letter delivered to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and shared with POLITICO’s E&E News.In late January, DOE paused approvals of new LNG exports to countries that the U.S. does not have free trade agreements with — a move with big potential implications for President Joe Biden’s reelection bid that was praised by environmentalists and condemned by fossil fuel supporters. The department is now conducting an economic and climate analysis on LNG that will help inform future decisions to approve or deny exports.
Environmental Groups Keep Pressure on Biden Amid LNG Export License Pause - More than 100 environmental and grassroots groups sent a letter to the Biden administration this week urging the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to conduct a “robust analysis” of the LNG supply chain before the pause on new export authorizations is lifted. The organizations argued in the letter that the DOE has relied too long on outdated economic and environmental impact studies conducted between 2012 and 2019 to determine whether U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are in the public interest. They said the administration must build a stronger public interest determination process than it ever has before during the pause. The studies that DOE has been relying on to make its decisions “do not adequately reflect the lifecycle emissions from exports, the social cost of those...
Democrats bash GOP proposal linking natural gas exports to Ukraine aid --House Democrats are hammering a Republican proposal linking Ukraine aid to an increase in natural gas exports, accusing GOP leaders of pushing poison-pill policies that will only further delay much needed help for a democratic ally under siege. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) launched the controversial debate late last month, telling Fox News that he’s eying a plan to allow new permits for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports — a reversal of President Biden’s recent freeze on those licenses — as part of legislation providing new military assistance to Kyiv. Johnson has been vague about the specifics for a foreign-aid package, and it’s unclear if the proposed natural gas provision will be part of any final legislation emerging from his office. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), a member of GOP leadership, told reporters Tuesday the provision is still on the table. But Democrats aren’t waiting silently while the GOP’s favored energy policies gain momentum. Instead, they’re bashing Johnson’s LNG proposal as a conservative pipe-dream that would never win over the Democratic support Johnson will need to get Ukraine aid to Biden’s desk. “I think it’s a non-starter,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). “I can’t speak for every Democrat, but I know a lot of my colleagues would be mortified by that, and would be upset with any Democratic leader that negotiated for it.” Johnson is walking a tightrope in his attempt to move another round of Ukraine aid through the lower chamber as Kyiv’s forces run low on munitions and Russian troops make advances. The new funding is supported by the old-guard conservatives in Johnson’s GOP conference — who favor a strong interventionist policy overseas — but is opposed by a newer crop of isolationists, led by former President Trump, who want to use more of Washington’s resources to address problems at home. In an effort to prevent a revolt from the Trump faction, Johnson has rejected a Senate-passed foreign-aid package, which provided $60 billion to Ukraine, and is vowing to move a more conservative version through the House. As part of that effort, he’s floating the LNG provision, which would reverse a Biden policy reviled by Republicans who want to expand domestic fossil fuel production, not curb it. The Speaker says the proposal is relevant to the Ukraine debate because it could help other countries wean themselves from a reliance on Russian fuel, which is helping to fund Moscow’s invasion. “We want to unleash American energy. We want to have natural gas exports that will help un-fund Vladimir Putin’s war effort there,” Johnson told Fox News at the end of March. Democrats have far different ideas. They’ve largely supported Biden’s freeze on LNG export permits, in the name of tackling climate change, while pressing Johnson to bring a vote on the Senate Ukraine bill, which passed through the upper chamber with an overwhelming 70-29 vote, including support from 22 Republicans. Given the bipartisan nature of that bill, they say Johnson is wasting his time with the LNG proposal while Ukraine suffers. “Speaker Johnson should stop playing political games with crucial aid to our allies and bring up the bill that got 70 votes in the Senate,” said Rep. Diane DeGette (Colo.), the senior Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee’s subpanel on energy and climate.
JPMorgan CEO Says LNG Projects Delayed Mainly for Political Reasons - Trade is realpolitik, and the recent cancellation of future liquified natural gas (LNG) projects is a good example of this fact. That’s what Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said in a recent letter to the company’s shareholders, which was posted on the company’s website. “The projects were delayed mainly for political reasons, to pacify those who believe that gas is bad and that oil and gas projects should simply be stopped,” he added. “This is not only wrong but also enormously naïve. One of the best ways to reduce CO2 for the next few decades is to use gas to replace coal,” he continued. In the letter, Dimon stated that, “when oil and gas prices skyrocketed last winter, nations around the world - wealthy and very climate-conscious nations like France, Germany and the Netherlands, as well as lower-income nations like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam that could not afford the higher cost - started to turn back to their coal plants”. “This highlights the importance of safe, secure, and affordable energy,” he added. Dimon also noted in the letter that the export of LNG “is a great economic boon for the United States”. “But most important is the realpolitik goal: Our allied nations that need secure and affordable energy resources, including critical nations like Japan, Korea, and most of our European allies, would like to be able to depend on the United States for energy,” he said. “This now puts them in a difficult position - they may have to look elsewhere for such supplies, turning to Iran, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or maybe even Russia. We need to minimize anything that can tear at our economic bonds with our allies,” he added. “The strength of our domestic production of energy gives us a ‘power advantage’ - cheaper and more reliable energy, which creates economic and geopolitical advantages,” Dimon went on to state. Rigzone has contacted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the White House (WH) for comment on Dimon’s letter. At the time of writing, neither has responded to Rigzone yet.
Biden Commits to Japanese Energy Security While Holding Firm on LNG Pause - As the United States moves to reassure allies that reliable LNG exports are still a priority, market analysts warn the Department of Energy’s (DOE) pause on new export permits has already opened the door for international competitors. President Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio Wednesday where, along with security and economic cooperation, the two reportedly discussed Japan’s energy relationship with the United States. While Biden’s January directive for DOE to review its policies for approving exports from new liquefied natural gas projects does not currently prevent U.S. cargoes from being sent to Japan, some Japanese firms and officials have expressed concern about its impact on long-term energy security and affordability.
APA Curtails Permian Natural Gas Output, Citing Negative Waha Prices - APA Corp. said Wednesday it curtailed about 35 MMcf/d of U.S. natural gas production during the first quarter, mostly during March. The curtailment was “in response to weak or negative Waha hub prices.” Waha is the hub of record for the Permian Basin, which spans West Texas and portions of southeastern New Mexico. Waha prices were negative for much of March and have mostly remained that way in April amid weak weather-driven demand and a massive supply overhang in the region. Negative pricing means producers have to pay shippers to take their gas.
NatGas Flows to Freeport LNG Export Plant Drop to Near Zero, Again - Marcellus Drilling News - The problem-plagued Freeport LNG export plant is once again completely out of order. The plant had been mostly offline following an episode of cold temps in January (see Freeport LNG Repairs Won’t be Done Until May – 2 Trains Offline). Freeport announced that two of the three trains at its facility would remain out of service for testing and repairs through May. In late March, Train 3 at the plant came back online (see Freeport LNG Maintenance Work Continues – Gas Flows to One Train). However, a new problem at Train 3 took it offline late Tuesday.
Freeport Again Restarts Train 3 After Unplanned Outage – Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - Freeport LNG Development LP said Train 3 at its export plant on the upper Texas coast tripped offline late Tuesday due to an issue with the ventilation flow meter. The train, which only recently came back online after a lengthy outage, was restarted Wednesday, according to a regulatory filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Feed gas flows to the facility dropped significantly Wednesday and were nominated at below 180 MMcf/d on Thursday. The facility has been using about half of its 2.6 Bcf/d of feed gas capacity. Two of Freeport’s three trains are expected to be offline intermittently through at least May for inspections and repairs. Train 3 was restarted in March after a months-long outage caused by electrical issues during extreme cold in January...
TotalEnergies expands its US natural gas production - France’s TotalEnergies has agreed to buy the 20 percent interest held by Lewis Energy in the Dorado leases operated by EOG Resources in the Eagle Ford shale play, increasing its natural gas production capacity in Texas and further strengthening its business integration in the US LNG value chain. Located in Texas, the Dorado field will allow TotalEnergies to increase its net US natural gas production by 50 million cubic feet a day (Mcf/d) in 2024, with the potential for an additional 50 Mcf/d by 2028, it said in a statement. According to TotalEnergies, the field has an emission intensity of around 10 kg CO2e/boe. In 2023, TotalEnergies’ net US natural gas output reached around 340 Mcf/d (450 Mcf/d technical production). Largest exporter of US LNG With over 10 million tons (Mt) in 2023, TotalEnergies was the number one exporter of US LNG, thanks to its 16.6 percent stake in the Sempra infrastructure-operated Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana and several long-term purchasing agreements, the firm claims. Moreover, the company’s LNG export capacity will reach 15 Mt/y by 2030 following the start-up of the first phase of NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, currently under construction.
U.S. Natgas Prices Hit 5-Week High on Rising Feedgas to Freeport LNG, Output Drop -- U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a five-week high on Wednesday on an increase in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant and a drop in output as pipeline maintenance trapped gas in Texas and producers continued to reduce drilling activities after prices collapsed to 3-1/2-year lows earlier this year. Limiting price gains was the huge amount of surplus of gas in storage and negative spot power and gas prices in parts of Texas, California and Arizona seen over the past few weeks. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.3 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $1.885 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 6 for a second day in a row. Analysts projected gas stockpiles were about 37% above normal levels for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected gas and power demand would both hit record highs in 2024, while gas output will drop for the first time since 2020 when COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns cut demand for the fuel. The EIA also projected that U.S. gas prices would be cheaper in 2024 than coal for the first time ever. In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Basin in West Texas fell from negative $1.20 on April 8 to negative $1.50 per mmBtu on April 9, their lowest since April 2020 for a second day in a row, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. Over the past several weeks, daily power and gas prices in Texas, California and Arizona have traded below zero due to low demand, ample renewable sources of power and pipeline maintenance that trapped gas in Texas. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.9 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 12-week low of 96.1 bcfd on Wednesday. Energy traders have said preliminary data was often revised higher later in the day. With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 100.9 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a three-week high of 13.5 bcfd as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport climbs to 1.5 bcfd on Wednesday from 1.1 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 0.8 bcfd over the prior seven days. Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until all three liquefaction trains at Freeport’s plant in Texas return to service. Freeport said in late March it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating. Analysts, however, believe Freeport has already restarted at least one of the two trains shut for inspection and repairs. Each Freeport train can turn about 0.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.
U.S. Natgas Prices Hold Near 2-Week Low on Lower Demand Forecasts - U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week low on Friday on worries about a huge storage surplus and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due primarily to a drop in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas. Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 36% above normal levels for this time of year. That lack of price movement occurred despite a drop in output as producers reduced drilling activities after prices fell to a 3-1/2-year low in February and March, and forecasts for colder weather to boost heating demand in two weeks. U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs operating this week by one to 109, their lowest since January 2022, according to data from energy services company Baker Hughes. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.6 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $1.770 per million British thermal units. On Thursday the contract closed at its lowest since March 28. For the week, the front-month lost about 1% in its first weekly decline in four weeks. In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Basin in West Texas rose to negative $1.74 per mmBtu on April 11 from a near four-year low of negative $2.10 on April 10, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. In Canada, spot gas prices at the AECO hub in Alberta fell to $1.00 per mmBtu, their lowest level since October 2022 for a fourth day in a row. In other news, Williams Cos said it will allow the certificate for the proposed Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) gas pipe in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York to expire in May, according to a filing with federal energy regulators. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved construction of the roughly $1 billion NESE project in 2019, but Williams put it on hold because environmental regulators in New York and New Jersey did not approve water permits. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 99.3 bcfd this week to 94.4 bcfd next week as the weather warms before rising to 98.1 bcfd in two weeks with cooler temperatures. The forecasts for this week and the next were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 12.5 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to a one-week low of 12.0 bcfd as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG holds at 0.1 bcfd for a second day in a row on Friday, down from a recent high of 1.1 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 0.8 bcfd over the prior seven days. Freeport said in late March it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating. But the small increase in feedgas seen on Tuesday convinced some in the market that Train 1 or 2 was returning to service early. That, however, was before Train 3 tripped late on Tuesday.
Oklahoma AG Alleges ‘Unconscionable’ Natural Gas Price Gouging by Symmetry, Enable During Winter Storm Uri - Oklahoma is suing two natural gas marketers over alleged market manipulation and price gouging during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. The deep freeze wreaked havoc on natural gas and electricity supply in the South Central United States, particularly Texas and Oklahoma, causing prolonged energy outages and extreme price spikes. Rather than taking measures to ensure reliable supply for homes and businesses ahead of the cold weather event, Symmetry Energy Solutions LLC and affiliates of Enable Midstream Partners LP sought to artificially inflate gas prices, according to lawsuits filed in Osage County District Court by Oklahoma’s Republican Attorney General (AG) Gentner Drummond. Enable has since been acquired by Energy Transfer LP.
LSU professor creates new pipeline leak detection technology, saving millions of dollars - An LSU professor discovered an innovative advancement using fiber optics, that has the potential to rapidly and accurately detect pipeline leaks. This could prevent substantial environmental harm and save the oil and gas industry billions annually. According to the Louisiana Department of Energy and Natural Resources, Louisiana has about 50,000 miles worth of pipelines running through it more than any other state except Texas, creating greater margins for leaks and detection errors in a state already plagued by oil spills and air pollution. Louisiana is not alone in its pipeline complications; United States oil and gas pipeline leaks happen every 40 minutes on average. Jyotsna Sharma, LSU petroleum engineering professor and creator of this technology, said her invention helps Louisiana “given the dense network of subsea, surface and subsurface pipelines crisscrossing the state. A micro-leak in an underwater pipeline can quickly become an environmental disaster.”The energy industry spends more than $3 billion on leak detection with faulty pressure gauges, which indicate a decrease in pressure if the leak is large enough. However, when these gauges are spaced miles apart, they may not readily detect the leak. Consequently, minor leaks often go unnoticed and unremedied, leading to environmental harm.This is where fiber-optic leak detection can assist by catching minor leaks and preventing environmental damage. “Light is sent into the optical fiber. If there is a change in temperature, strain, pressure, or vibrations anywhere along the fiber– such as at a leaking location– the light gets modulated at that location. By knowing the speed of light in fiber, which is made of glass or silica, we can calculate exactly where that leak is coming from,” Sharma said. Sharma noted that, though fiber-optic sensing technology has been around for about two decades, the novelty is in their algorithm that can identify the leak signature from all other background signals that are always present, minimizing false alarms.
Cleanup underway in Bronx River after an accidental oil spill in Yonkers --Con Edison is cleaning up non-hazardous insulating fluid similar to mineral oil that leaked out of a transmission feeder in Yonkers on April 1.A portion of an estimated 1,000 gallons of oil passed through a storm drain that has an outfall on Nereid Avenue.“[Department of Environmental Conservation] spill response is directing the clean-up operation and Con Edison has placed a series of fluid absorbing booms spread across the river from McLean Avenue in Yonkers down to Fordham Road in the Bronx,” Con Edison Spokesperson Alfonso Quiroz told News 12.He added, "The booms should prevent any significant amount of fluid traveling farther south."Quiroz also told News 12 that the cleanup should be complete by Friday.News 12 also reached out the DEC but had not heard back as of Sunday evening.
Unified Command Repairs Gulf Of Mexico Pipeline After Mysterious Oil Spill Off Louisiana - A Unified Command has completed an integrity test on the Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) firm’s pipeline system southeast of New Orleans. The location was Plaquemines Parish. The procedure was done in response to an oil release detected on 16 November last year. The integrity test indicated a failed subsea connector on the MPOG line that could not maintain the pressure. It is yet undetermined if this connector was linked with the November oil release, and other potential sources are also being examined. The precise quantity of the oil discharge is also unknown. However, the initial projections indicate that around 1.1 million gallons of crude oil could’ve been released from the 67-mile pipeline that was subsequently closed by the MPOG. Working with the Unified Command, the MPOG developed and enforced a plan to remove and replace the spool piece — the part of the pipeline that included the failed connector. The operation prioritized both safety and environmental protection. The spool piece was replaced on 21 February. Following the replacement, the MPOG conducted another integrity test on most of the pipeline. It was pressurized in phases utilizing an inert gas to ensure the system maintained containment. The test ended on Friday, disclosing that no additional pipeline segments need further assessments. The Unified Command and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration monitored the operations closely. Considerable safety measures included multi-spectral imaging cameras, divers, spill response vessels, and remotely operated vehicles. No significant oil discharges could be observed during the procedures.
Gulf of Mexico Pipeline Repaired After Mystery Oil Spill Off Louisiana - --A Unified Command has successfully completed an integrity test on the Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) company’s pipeline system, located southeast of New Orleans in Plaquemines Parish. This procedure was carried out in response to an oil release that was first detected on November 16, 2023.The integrity test revealed a failed subsea connector on the MPOG line that did not maintain pressure. It is still undetermined whether this connector was associated with the November oil release, and additional potential sources are being investigated.The exact quantity of the oil discharge is unknown. However, initial projections suggest that roughly 1.1 million gallons of crude oil could have been released from the 67-mile long pipeline, which was subsequently was closed by MPOG.Working with the Unified Command, MPOG developed and executed a plan to safely remove and replace the spool piece – the part of the pipeline that included the failed connector. The operation prioritized safety and environmental protection. The spool piece was successfully replaced on February 21.After the replacement, MPOG performed another integrity test on a majority of the pipeline. The pipeline was pressurized in stages using an inert gas to ensure the system could maintain containment. The test concluded on Friday, revealing no additional pipeline segments that require further assessment.The operations were closely monitored by the Unified Command and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Multiple safety measures were in place, including spill response vessels, divers, remotely operated vehicles, and multi-spectral imaging cameras. No significant oil discharges were observed during these procedures.
Diamondback Sells $5.5B of Bonds for Endeavor Deal - Diamondback Energy Inc. borrowed $5.5 billion in the US investment-grade market to partly help fund its $26 billion takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources LP, joining other blue-chip companies capitalizing on robust investor demand to bring acquisition-related debt deals. Diamondback sold the bonds in five parts, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The longest portion of the offering, a 40-year security, yields 142 basis points above Treasuries, after initial discussions of around 170 basis points, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the details are private. The deal garnered nearly $35 billion in investor orders, Bloomberg’s Brian Smith wrote in a note Tuesday. A representative for Diamondback didn’t respond to a request for comment. Proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes, including paying a portion of the cash consideration for the Endeavor merger and repaying certain debt of Endeavor if the merger closes, added the person. Diamondback last month inked a $1.5 billion term loan agreement to finance the acquisition. Diamondback in February agreed to buy fellow Texas oil-and-gas producer Endeavor in a $26 billion cash-and-stock deal to create the largest operator focused on the prolific Permian Basin. Diamondback will fund the deal with 117.3 million shares and $8 billion in cash, the two Midland, Texas-based companies said in a statement on Feb. 12. Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Toronto-Dominion Bank managing the bond sale, said the person. Representatives for the three banks didn’t respond to requests for comment. Multi-billion dollar bond offerings to fund mergers and acquisitions are helping fuel a $559.2 borrowing binge in the high-grade market this year through Monday, a trend that Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Schiffman said he expects will boost debt sales through the rest of 2024. Home Depot Inc. told investors last month it expects to take on $12.5 billion of debt to help fund its planned purchase of building-products distributor SRS Distribution Inc. Diamondback’s debt outstanding will double to around $13 billion if it closes the takeover, CreditSights analysts including Charles Johnston wrote in a note Tuesday. Still, cash flow generated throughout the year will limit the leverage impact, with pro forma leverage expected to be at around 1.1 times by the end of the year, they added. “In the medium term, the CFO would like the net debt to be in the $6-$8 billion range, with material amounts of cash on the balance sheet for countercyclical share repurchases,” wrote the analysts.
Biden administration says federal court should reconsider Line 5 shutdown order - The Biden administration is urging a federal appeals court to reverse a lower court order that would shut down an oil and gas pipeline crossing the Bad River tribe’s reservation within three years. Attorneys with the U.S. Department of Justice weighed in for the first time as the northern Wisconsin tribe and Canadian energy firm Enbridge have been locked in a years-long legal battle over the fate of the company’s Line 5 pipeline. In 2019, Bad River sued Enbridge in federal court to shut down and remove the pipeline from its reservation. Last year, U.S. District Judge William Conley ordered the company to pay$5.1 million for trespassing where its pipeline easements expired and shut down Line 5 there by mid-2026. Both Enbridge and Bad River appealed the ruling to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. In a brief made public Wednesday, the federal government argued Conley was right to find that Enbridge has been trespassing on tribal lands for more than 10 years. Even so, U.S. attorneys said the case should be sent back for the lower court to reconsider both the tribe’s treaty rights and the consequences of shutting down the pipeline on relations between the U.S. and Canada. “The operation of that pipeline has implications for the trade and diplomatic relationship between the two countries, as well as economic and energy-supply implications,” attorneys wrote in a court filing. U.S. attorneys also argued a federal judge was wrong in awarding only $5 million to the tribe for Enbridge’s trespass. They note the company has made more than $1 billion in profits tied to Line 5 since its right-of-way easements expired in 2013 on a dozen parcels of the tribe’s land. They say the award does nothing to discourage trespassing and encourages delaying the pipeline’s relocation.In a statement, Bad River Tribal Chair Robert Blanchard said tribal leaders are grateful the Biden administration urged against Enbridge profiting from its trespass on tribal lands. “But we are disappointed that the U.S. has not unequivocally called for an immediate end to Enbridge’s ongoing trespass, as justice and the law demand,” Blanchard said. “Enbridge should be required to promptly leave our Reservation, just like other companies that have trespassed on tribal land.” A group of 30 tribal nations, including Bad River, have urged President Joe Biden and his administration to support the tribe and treaty rights in the case. Juli Kellner, an Enbridge spokesperson, said in a statement the company has valid easements under a 1992 agreement to operate Line 5 on the vast majority of land where it crosses the reservation. She said shutting down Line 5 would violate a 1977 treaty between the U.S. and Canada, adding it would negatively impact businesses, communities and millions of people who rely on the pipeline.
The legal long shot that could shut down Dakota Access - The tribe fighting to shut down the Dakota Access pipeline has new ammunition in its long legal battle: The operator needs a federal easement, but it’s barred from doing business with the government. Energy Transfer has been operating Dakota Access for years under a lake managed by the federal government. But its original easement was struck down by a court — and the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe argues that the company’s federal “debarment” means it isn’t eligible for a new one. Experts say it’s a legal long shot — but not an impossible one. Advertisement “It’s plausible, possible, but maybe not probable,” said Robert Meunier, who was a top debarment official at EPA and led the Office of Management and Budget’s Interagency Suspension and Debarment Committee. Still, he said, “It sounds like that company may have a major problem.” The debarment — which has not been previously reported — stems from Energy Transfer’s checkered environmental record, which includes spills, leaks and an explosion during construction of pipelines in Pennsylvania. It provides a new opening for a legal case that could have far-reaching repercussions: Dakota Access carries about 6 percent of the country’s daily oil production and plays an outsize role in the national debate over climate and domestic energy production. Tribal officials have contacted EPA, which issued the debarment, to outline their objections and have laid out their arguments in public filings. But the tribe has not yet formally raised the issue in their litigation with the Army Corps of Engineers. Notably, the judge in the existing case ordered the pipeline “drained of oil” in 2020, only to be overruled by a higher court. “We’re gathering our quivers and our arrows to continue to fight and stop the Dakota Access pipeline in any way we can,” Doug Crow Ghost, the tribe’s water resources director, said in an interview. “We’re trying to figure out how this debarment can play a role in a lawsuit.” Construction of the 1,172-mile Dakota Access pipeline inspired intense protests by thousands of people in 2016 and 2017. The bitter fight spurred a debate about tribal treaty rights and the costs of the United States’ newfound abundance of oil. Tribal officials have tried for years to shut down the pipeline by arguing that the Army Corps did an inadequate environmental review when granting the original easement for Lake Oahe, the tribe’s primary water supply. For the first time, they may go after Energy Transfer directly, suggesting that the company’s environmental record could haunt its highest-profile asset. Energy Transfer is a sprawling Dallas-based empire of oil and gas infrastructure led by a major former President Donald Trump donor, Kelcy Warren, and has more than 125,000 miles of pipelines. A spokesperson for the company did not respond to requests for comment. The Army Corps also did not respond to requests for comment.
Cedar LNG issues notice to proceed to SHI and Black & Veatch, expects FID by mid-2024 - Canada’s Pembina Pipeline and the Haisla Nation have issued a notice to proceed to Samsung Heavy Industries and Black & Veatch for Cedar LNG’s floating LNG production unit following the finalization of long-term commercial offtake agreements. Cedar LNG said on Thursday these “critical” milestones allow the project to proceed to secure financing, which is required prior to making a final investment decision (FID), expected by the middle of 2024. The JV is preparing for construction, with pre-FID early works starting in May 2024, including tree clearing and rough grading activities at our proposed marine terminal near Kitimat. The in-service date is expected in late 2028. Pembina and the Haisla Nation each own 50 percent in the Cedar LNG project. In February, the partners have again postponed the final decision on their Cedar floating LNG export project to the middle of this year.Pirior to that, the duo confirmed they had selected SHI and Black & Veatch to provide engineering, procurement, and construction for Cedar LNG’s floating LNG production unit. According to the statement on Thursday, the issuance of the NTP directs the EPC contractor to finalize engineering and design for, and start construction of the FLNG. Subject to the final decision, once complete, the FLNG unit will be transported from South Korea to the Cedar LNG site in Haisla traditional territory in the Douglas Channel, signaling a “step change for the LNG industry and Indigenous people everywhere.”
Drought Seen Impacting Western Canada’s Natural Gas, Oil Operations - Canadian oil and natural gas operators are working to manage water use as western provinces face increasingly dry conditions after a mild winter. Exploration and production (E&P) companies achieved record natural gas production last winter, according to the latest data from the Canada Energy Regulator. Total marketed natural gas production during December was more than 531 million cubic meters/day (MMcm/d), or 18.8 Bcf/d, the highest level achieved over the last two years. Also last winter, however, El Niño led to lower snowpack levels throughout much of Canada, including British Columbia (BC) and Alberta, the two leading gas-producing provinces.
Pemex Safety Woes Continue as Offshore Platform Fire Kills One, Injures Nine - Mexico’s state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) said a fire Saturday at the Akal-B offshore platform in Campeche Bay left one worker dead and nine injured, including two in critical condition. The deceased worker was an employee of a contractor company called COTER. The incident occurred in an area where pipelines supply natural gas as a fuel for the platform’s turbomachinery, Pemex said. One of the workers in critical condition is a Pemex employee, while the other works for COTER. Pemex said it was investigating the cause of the blaze and taking actions that would allow the restart of operations. The fire is the latest in a long series of fatal accidents at Pemex oil and gas installations.
One Dead in PEMEX Platform Fire - In a statement posted on its website on Saturday, which was originally in Spanish and translated to English, Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) revealed that a fire broke out on one of the platforms of the Akal-B Process Center in the Campeche Sound at just before 5pm local time that day. The fire occurred in the area where the pipelines that handle fuel for the turbomachinery are located, the statement highlighted. “The Emergency Response Plan (PRE) was immediately activated at the facility, controlling the fire at 5.04pm,” the translated statement said. “Two PEMEX workers and seven company workers (three from DIAVAZ, four from COTER) were reported with non-serious injuries. They are sent to Ciudad del Carmen for evaluation,” it added. In an update posted on its site on Sunday, PEMEX revealed that five of its workers had been affected by the fire. Two of these had first and second degree burn injuries and two had bruises but all four were in stable condition, according to that update, which revealed that one worker was in a serious condition and would be moved to Mexico City for treatment. “Three workers from the DIAVAZ company were evaluated at the Social Security hospital and were discharged,” the translated statement said. “Six workers from the COTER company - one worker was evaluated at the Social Security hospital and discharged; three workers with first and second degree burn injuries are hospitalized in the same institution in stable health condition; a hospitalized worker in serious health condition; and, unfortunately, a deceased worker,” it added. “The inspection and evaluation of the area continues to be carried out to establish the causes of this fire and the actions that allow the reestablishment of the operation of the Process Center,” PEMEX continued. Rigzone has contacted PEMEX asking for an update on the workers affected in the fire that occurred on the Akal-B marine platform. Rigzone also asked PEMEX if production was affected by the fire. The questions were posed in English and Spanish. At the time of writing, PEMEX has not yet responded to Rigzone.
Spot LNG shipping rates, European prices drop this week –- Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet decreased further this week, and European prices dropped for the first time in six weeks.Last week, Spot charter rates dropped below $50,000 per day.“Freight rates in the Atlantic and Pacific basins continue to fall for the second consecutive week, with the Spark30S Atlantic spot rate falling by $1,750 per day to $44,750 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific rate falling by $1,500/day to $47,000 per day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. “For this time of the year, the Spark30S Atlantic spot rate is at its lowest point since 2021,” he said.LNG freight rates remain low despite the fact that LNG carriers are still avoiding the Suez Canal due to the situation in the Red Sea and the lower LNG transits in the Panama Canal due to a drought situation.In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month dropped compared to the last week.“The SparkNWE DES LNG front month price for April delivery is assessed at $8.047/MMBtu and at a $0.300/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said.He said this is a $0.277/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, the first weekly decrease in SparkNWE DES LNG price in six weeks.Levels of gas in storages in Europe are very high following a mild winter.Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that volumes in gas storages in the EU rose and they were 59.44 percent full on April 3. Gas storages were 58.81 percent full on March 27, and 55.87 percent full on April 3 last year.The EU-27 ended the winter with record-high stocks in gas storages.US LNG exports rose in the week ending April 3 compared to the week before while the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas still operates with only one train.The LNG terminal operator told LNG Prime last month that its third train is currently online and producing LNG, while the “train 2 liquefaction unit is now offline and our train 1 liquefaction unit will be taken down imminently.”This week, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, rose slightly when compared to the last week, according to Platts data.JKM for May settled at $9.545/MMBtu on Thursday.State-run Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) said in a report earlier this week that the JKM “increased to mid-$9s on March 28 from low-$9s the previous weekend.”“In a bear market, there has been no significant movement, but the market is slowly rising after bottoming out at the end of February,” it said.Japan’s METI recently said that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of March 31 stood at 1.48 million tonnes, down 0.4 million tonnes from the previous week.Kpler said this week that March LNG imports rose in Asia and declined in Europe, with price-sensitive Asian buyers returning to the market.Asian LNG imports hit 24.29 million mt, with China leading at 6.62 million mt, seeking cheaper spot LNG cargoes, it said.In contrast, Europe’s LNG imports fell to 9.12 million mt, the lowest since September 2023, attributed to warmer weather and high gas reserves, Kpler said.
Geopolitical Tensions Push TTF Higher, but Cargoes Flow to Asia Amid Unchanged Fundamentals – LNG Recap -LNG cargoes continue to flow to Asia as injections get underway in Europe, where the market is well stocked and demand is low. Asia has imported 93.8 million tons (Mt) of liquefied natural gas year-to-date, up 8% over the same time last year, according to Kpler data. Meanwhile, European imports of the super-chilled fuel are down 19% over the same time to 38.3 Mt. Both futures and spot Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) prices were trading near $9.50/MMBtu on Monday, above European gas prices, but low enough to entice spot purchases. Buyers from India, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand have all been in the market with tenders over the last week, according to Kpler.
Baker Hughes to Provide Compressor Trains for Snam's Adriatic Line - Baker Hughes has secured a contract to provide three NovaLT12 gas turbine-driven compressor trains for a new gas compressor station in Sulmona, Italy, to European natural gas operator Snam SPA. The station is an integral part of the Adriatic Line, a Snam pipeline project, whose first phase was included in Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) as part of the REpowerEU Plan. The Adriatic Line project entails the construction of a 264-mile (425-kilometer) long, hydrogen-ready pipeline to allow the transport of additional energy supplies from Azerbaijan, Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean region to northern Europe. The contract, which was awarded to Baker Hughes following a public tender, builds on a long-standing collaboration between the two companies, Baker Hughes said in a news release, adding that the contract will be booked in the first quarter. The financial details were not disclosed. Baker Hughes said its NovaLT12 turbines will provide the option to run on 100 percent natural gas or hydrogen blends up to 10 percent. The technology will help decarbonize the Italian gas network infrastructure and aligns with Snam’s strategy to achieve carbon neutrality on direct emissions by 2040, according to the release.
Gladstone LNG exports up in March on higher China volumes - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gladstone port in Australia’s Queensland increased in March compared to the same month last year due to higher volumes going to China, according to the monthly data by Gladstone Ports Corporation. Curtis Island is home to the Santos-operated GLNG plant, the ConocoPhillips-led APLNG terminal, and Shell’s QCLNG facility. These are the only LNG export facilities on Australia’s east coast. Last month, about 2.07 million tonnes of LNG or 31 cargoes left the three Gladstone terminals on Curtis Island. This compares to about 1.74 million tonnes of LNG or 27 cargoes in March 2023, the data shows. March LNG exports rose some 19 percent year-on-year and they also rose compared to the previous month when LNG exports reached some 1.98 million tonnes of LNG or 30 cargoes. Moreover, most of March LNG exports (1.45 million tonnes) landed in China, marking a rise of 48.7 percent compared to 974,903 tonnes last year. The rest of the Gladstone LNG exports in March landed in Malaysia (245,757 tonnes), South Korea (176,594 tonnes), Japan (134,984 tonnes), and Singapore (68,866 tonnes), GPC’s data shows. Volumes to Malaysia dropped slightly compared to 248,238 tonnes last year, while volumes to South Korea decreased from 226,041 tonnes last year and volumes to Japan dropped from 187,657 tonnes last year. Volumes to Singapore dropped slightly compared to 66,167 tonnes in March 2023. The three Gladstone terminals shipped about 22.97 million tonnes of LNG or 350 cargoes in 2023.
Egypt to Import More LNG over Next Four Months to Ensure Summer Supply --Egypt aims to buy more liquefied natural gas shipments over the next four months as the nation aims to avoid a repeat of last year’s chronic blackouts. Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. is currently aiming to import at least one shipment a month through July or August, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss private details. Egypt will need at least five cargoes for the summer, one of the people said. Egypt’s oil ministry, which has responsibility for overseeing fuel imports, couldn’t be reached for comment outside usual office hours. The North African country — typically a fuel exporter — uses natural gas to produce electricity for air conditioning, and has begun buying LNG ahead of forecast summer heat waves as it aims to avoid disruptions to power supply. Temperatures that rose above 35C (95F) last summer caused interruptions that continued for an hour or two each day.
Investigation under way after gas pipeline off Victorian coast ruptures - The offshore oil and gas regulator is investigating after an undersea gas pipeline ruptured off the Victorian coast, causing a visible “sheen” on the ocean’s surface. The National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (Nopsema) confirmed it received a notification about a potential spill from ExxonMobil subsidiary Esso on Saturday morning. It is believed the rupture originates with a pipeline connecting the West Kingfish platform to the Kingfish A platform. A Nopsema spokesperson said the pipeline was “reported to contain 95% water at the time” but has since been “isolated at both facility ends and is being depressurised”. “The facility has been offline for four weeks and continues to be so,” they said. “An investigation has been launched and Nopsema is content Esso is currently managing the incident appropriately.” The regulator did not clarify what remaining material the pipeline was carrying or what may have been dissolved in the water. “As the investigation is ongoing it would not be appropriate to comment more at this stage,” the spokesperson said. ExxonMobil Australia has been contacted for comment. The gas platforms in the area are among the oldest offshore oil and gas operations in the country, with West Kingfish in the early stages of decommissioning. News of the rupture has prompted calls for more stringent regulations and transparency from the regulator and operators, particularly when it comes to decommissioning old oil and gas infrastructure. Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson said he had serious concerns about the rupture, particularly as Esso is applying to set up a carbon, capture and storage (CCS) operation in the area to inject waste CO2 into the Gippsland Basin, beneath the ocean’s surface. “Nopsema is supposed to have oversight and regulate the environmental management of the offshore fossil fuel industry, but coastal communities are fast losing confidence in the ‘independent’ regulator, which has become more of an enabler than an investigator of offshore oil and gas projects,” he said. “If Esso cannot manage to decommission rig infrastructure safely I highly doubt it’s capable of carrying out risky carbon capture and storage it has planned for the region.”
Malaysia Starts Work on Third FLNG Facility to Utilize More Stranded Natural Gas - State-owned Petronas has started construction on Malaysia’s third floating LNG (FLNG) facility to better help it capitalize on stranded natural gas assets amid failing production from other fields. The design and construction of the nearshore facility “is expected to be simpler, and upon completion, has the potential for improved production uptime as it will be located within a protected bay area” versus an offshore liquefied natural gas facility in the open seas, management said in a statement. Malaysia is struggling with declining output from its upstream assets. Its first two operating FLNGs have helped unlock the country’s gas reserves in remote and stranded fields, which were previously considered uneconomical for conventional exploration and production.
PetroVietnam Power gets $300 million loan for LNG power plants - PetroVietnam Power, a unit of state-owned PetroVietnam, has signed a deal with Citibank and ING for a $300 million short-term loan to fund the construction of its Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG power plants. PV Power said in a statement that the deal was signed during a ceremony held on April 4. In addition to the short-term loan, PV Power said it is also working with Citibank and ING to arrange a long-term loan worth up to $600 million to finance the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 power plants. PW Power said this is the first LNG power project in Vietnam with strategic importance in ensuring national energy security. The firm previously said it expects the Nhon Trach 3 power plant to launch operations in November 2024, while the Nhon Trach 4 power plant is expected to start operations in May 2025. PetroVietnam Power said in November 2021 it broke ground on the two LNG power plants in the southern province of Dong Nai worth about $1.4 billion. The Nhon Trach 3 and 4 plants will have a total capacity of 1,500 megawatt (MW). South Korea’s Samsung C&T secured a contract from PetroVietnam Power to build the plants as part of a consortium with Vietnamese contractor Lilama.
SEFE rejects GAIL's $1.81 billion claim over LNG supplies - SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore, previously known as Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore, has rejected GAIL’s $1.81 billion claim over undelivered LNG volumes. India’s largest gas utility GAIL said in a filling to the stock exchange that SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore (SM&TS) has filed its statement of defence on April 2, 2024. “SM&TS denies that it owes anything other than an alleged contractually limited sum properly evidenced and subject to SM&TS’ defences,” GAIL said. GAIL announced in December it launched an arbitration process in the hope of securing up to $1.81 billion in compensation from SM&TS over undelivered LNG volumes. GAIL said the dispute is related to “non-supply of LNG cargoes to GAIL under long-term LNG contract.” The state-owned firm filed the claim in the London Court of International Arbitration on November 30. It is seeking “up to $1.817 billion and alternative reliefs including non-monetary reliefs.” GAIL previously said that SEFE stopped supplying LNG in May 2022 and that the deliveries resumed in May last year with about four LNG cargoes per month. This means that SEFE did not supply up to 48 LNG cargoes to GAIL during the period. In 2012, the Indian firm and Gazprom’s unit signed the sales and purchase deal for 2.5 mtpa of LNG. The contract started in 2018 and ends in 2041, according to GIIGNL data. However, the German government took over Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE), previously Gazprom Germania, in November 2022 saying the move is necessary to protect its energy security due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
TotalEnergies pushes back Papua LNG FID to 2025 - French energy giant TotalEnergies and its partners have postponed a final investment decision on the planned Papua LNG export project in Papua New Guinea. This was revealed during a meeting between Patrick Pouyanne, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, and James Marape, the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, according to a statement by TotalEnergies. Pouyanne reaffirmed that TotalEnergies, operator of the project, and its international partners ExxonMobil, Santos, JX Nippon, are “fully committed” to Papua LNG. “In particular, he shared the high interest of several LNG buyers for off-taking LNG from Papua LNG due to its strategic location close to key Asian markets,” he said. Pouyanne also said that, after receiving first EPC offers, it appears that the project “will need to keep working with contractors to obtain commercially viable EPC contracts and requires more work to reach FID.” “In that view, the project will review the structure of some packages and open the competition to an enlarged panel of Asian contractors. As a consequence, FID of Papua LNG project is now expected in 2025,” the statement said. Pouyanne and Marape “agreed that this slight delay will not affect the early works planned in Papua New Guinea in 2024 and that the project will maintain its full support to local population of Gulf Province,” the statement said. Moreover, Pouyanne announced that TotalEnergies intends to drill the first deepwater exploration well on the PPL 576 license in 2025. In March 2023, the Papua LNG partners launched fully-integrated front-end engineering and design (FEED) for the project, while TotalEnergies sold a small stake in the project to Japan’s JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration in June. Pouyanne said in September last year the project partners could take a final investment decision on the project “by the end of this year or beginning of the next year.” A spokesperson for France’s Credit Agricole recently confirmed to LNG Prime that the group will not finance Papua LNG or Rovuma LNG. “Credit Agricole does not finance any new fossil fuel extraction projects as disclosed last December during its second climate workshop,” the spokesperson said. TotalEnergies has a 37.55 percent operating stake in the Papua LNG project, ExxonMobil has 37.04 percent, Santos owns a 22.83 percent interest, and JX Nippon holds 2.58 percent. The project calls for the design of about 4 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity adjacent to the existing PNG LNG processing facilities, operated by ExxonMobil and located 20 kilometers northwest of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, The facility will receives supplies from the Elk-Antelope gas field. Also, the project includes the use of 2 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity in the existing trains of PNG LNG.
World’s biggest economies pumping billions into fossil fuels in poor nations -The world’s biggest economies have continued to finance the expansion of fossil fuels in poor countries to the tune of billions of dollars, despite their commitments on the climate.The G20 group of developed and developing economies, and the multilateral development banks they fund, put $142bn (£112bn) into fossil fuel developments overseas from 2020 to 2022, according to estimates compiled by the campaigning groups Oil Change International (OCI) and Friends of the Earth US.Canada, Japan and South Korea were the biggest sources of such finance in the three years studied, and gas received more funding than either coal or oil.The G7 group of biggest economies, to which Japan and Canada belong,pledged in 2022 to halt overseas funding of fossil fuels. But while funding for coal has rapidly diminished, finance for oil and gas projects has continued at a strong pace.Some of the money is going to other developed economies, including Australia, but much of it is to the developing world. However, richer middle income countries still receive more finance than the poorest.The most recent G7 pledge, in the study, is to phase out all overseas fossil fuel funding by the end of 2022. The OCI study concentrates on the period from the beginning of the fiscal year of 2020-21 for each country, to the end of the fiscal year of 2022-23.However, the researchers also found that Japan had continued to make new fossil fuel investments overseas in the past few weeks, up to mid-March 2024, exploiting loopholes in its promise to end fossil fuel funding.The World Bank provided about $1.2bn a year to fossil fuels over the three-year period, of which about two-thirds went to gas projects.The US, Germany and Italy also provided billions in funding a year to overseas fossil fuel projects before the end of 2022-23, according to the report published on Tuesday. The UK supplied about $600m a year on average.Canada supplied just under $11bn a year on average, in the 2020-22 period studied, while South Korea put forward $10bn and Japan about $7bn.Over the same three-year period, the G20 economies put about $104bn into clean energy developments overseas, according to the report.
OIL India reports leak in Assam well site, says situation under control -- State-owned OIL India Ltd on Wednesday (April 10) reported an oil leak incident at well number BGN24, inside the Dighaltarang Tea Estate in Assam's Tinsukia district. The leak, reported around 11.30 pm on April 9, 2024, prompted an immediate response from OIL India personnel, who managed to contain the situation by 2.20 am the following day, according to a stock exchange filing. OIL India promptly informed the district administration, with officials from the administration present at the site to assess and address the situation alongside OIL India's response team. In a proactive measure, the fire service was mobilised, with a crew placed on standby to manage potential risks. On inspection, the response team identified "a hole in the flow path from the X-mass tree," prompting an ongoing investigation into the root cause of the incident. Gas and crude oil had spread to nearby areas within an approximate radius of 100 metres from the well site, necessitating immediate action. "Gas and crude oil had spread out over nearby areas located within approximately 100 m from the well site. An on-site assessment team of OIL India is formed to assess the affected areas immediately," it said. "The OIL India team is taking up measures for remediation of the affected area. An internal enquiry is being conducted for a thorough investigation and Oil India reassures that the well is in completely controlled & closed condition and there is no point of panic for the same," the company added.
Russia's Revenue Jumps in First Quarter as Oil Prices Rise - Russia reported a sharp increase in revenue in the first quarter due in part to one-time tax payments and rising oil prices as the country continues to weather sanctions over its war in Ukraine. Russia observed “sustained positive dynamics” in the flow of money to the federal budget, according to a Finance Ministry statement on Monday. Revenues for the three months through March amounted to 8.7 trillion rubles ($94 billion), an increase of 53.5% compared with the same period last year, data from the ministry showed. “The economy continues to grow at an impressive rate,” Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina told lawmakers Monday in a speech to the country’s lower chamber of parliament. Inflows from non-energy industries increased by 43% year-on-year, forming “a stable basis for further advancing income growth,” the Finance Ministry said. Payments of a “one-time nature” contributed significantly, including exit fees paid by foreign companies leaving Russia. Oil and gas revenue grew rapidly, increasing by almost 80% on last year, boosted by rising prices as well as a one-time tax payment from oil companies. Brent crude oil is trading above $90 a barrel on Monday, up almost 20% since the start of the year due to escalating geopolitical tensions and supply shocks. In 2023, energy income decreased by 23.9% to 8.8 trillion rubles, despite the fact that budget revenue overall showed a slight increase compared with 2022. That was due in part to the European Union’s ban on most seaborne imports of crude and petroleum products from Russia, and the Group of Seven nations’ price caps, both intended to punish the country for its invasion of Ukraine. “This situation is fundamentally different from the first quarter of 2023, when the average price of Russian Urals oil was only $48.92 per barrel and the ruble exchange rate was significantly stronger than now,” said Olga Belenkaya, an economist at Finam in Moscow. The Finance Ministry based the budget on a projection of an $85 per barrel average price for Brent oil in 2024. If prices remain high, which seem likely given Opec+ supply restrictions and increased geopolitical risks, then the ministry gets closer to hitting its revenue targets that once seemed optimistic, she said. “In terms of income, oil and gas did not surprise,” said Sofya Donets, an economist at Renaissance Capital. “The non-oil-and-gas sectors show strong dynamics and were somewhat ahead of our expectations.” Russia has posted a budget deficit since the end of 2022, as war costs from President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine weigh heavily on state finances.
OPEC oil production inched higher in March - OPEC’s crude oil production edged up by 3,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to February as Iran and Saudi Arabia slightly boosted output while Iraq continued to produce more than it is expected to.Crude oil production from all 12 OPEC members – including Iran, Libya, and Venezuela which are exempted from the OPEC+ cuts – averaged 26.60 million bpd in March, up by 3,000 bpd from February, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Thursday.Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gabon, and Kuwait slightly increased their respective oil output, while production in Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela dropped, according to secondary sources that OPEC uses to track production.OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, raised output by 20,000 bpd, to 9.037 million bpd in March. This is in line with the Saudi pledge with the extra voluntary 1-million-bpd cut that the Kingdom will pump “around 9 million bpd” of crude until the end of the first half of the year.But OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, while reducing some output, was still pumping well above its pledged volumes.Iraq pumped nearly 200,000 bpd more than its pledge to keep production at 4 million bpd, as it only reduced output by 23,000 bpd compared to February, according to the secondary sources in OPEC’s report. Iraq’s oil production averaged 4.194 million bpd in March, per the sources. Iran, exempted from the cuts, is estimated by OPEC’s secondary sources to have raised its oil production in March to 3.188 million bpd, up by 28,000 bpd from February.Last week, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC+ panel that monitors oil market developments and the group’s production cuts, didn’t recommend any changes to output policy but noted that compliance with the cuts needs to improve.Of the OPEC producers, the biggest laggard in compliance has been Iraq, which, despite pledges to reduce production within its quota, has been pumping above its ceiling.Iraq is committed to its voluntary cut in the OPEC+ agreement and will produce no more than 4 million bpd of crude oil, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said in February.
Oil Futures Drop on Reassessed Geopolitical Risk Premium -- Oil futures shed some of last week's gains Monday morning, after Israel withdrew its ground troops from the southern Gaza strip over the weekend amid reports of progressing negotiations for a ceasefire. Flaring tensions in the Middle East propelled both crude benchmarks to 24-week highs Friday on concerns a potential Iranian retaliatory strike on an Israeli diplomatic facility could escalate into a broader military conflict. Threats to already tight crude oil supply -- be it Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, or a potential military escalation in the Middle East -- have lately been supportive of oil prices. Their effect, however, was dampened by ample spare production capacity, a result of OPEC+'s output curtailments, which tightened the market considerably and have been the actual main driver of prices. The Energy Information Administration in its March Short-term Energy Outlook estimated OPEC spare capacity to sit at 4.71 million barrels per day (bpd).Bullish U.S. macroeconomic indicators, meanwhile, were a double-edged sword for fuel demand expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported 303,000 new jobs in March, beating expectations by 91,000. While a red-hot labor market and growing earnings are certainly supportive of gasoline demand, they also push back potential interest rate cuts and with them growth potential in manufacturing activity and associated middle distillate demand. Near 7:00 a.m. EDT, West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery were down $0.67 to $86.24 barrel (bbl), while Brent for June delivery retreated $0.70 to $90.47 bbl. RBOB for May delivery shed $0.0174 to $2.7712 gallon, while ULSD for May delivery traded near $2.741 gallon, down $0.032.
The Crude Market on Monday Retraced Some of its Previous Gains Amid the News That Israel Was Withdrawing More Soldiers From Gaza -- The crude market on Monday retraced some of its previous gains amid the news that Israel was withdrawing more soldiers from Gaza and committing to talks on a potential ceasefire. On Sunday, Israel said it withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza. The country has reduced troop numbers in Gaza since the start of the year and is under increasing pressure from allies to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks were revived as Israel and Hamas sent teams to Egypt for talks ahead of the Eid holidays, though a Hamas official on Monday said no progress was made at a new round of talks. The oil market gapped lower from $86.32 to $86.10 and sold off to a low of $84.69 as the Israeli announcement reduced the geopolitical risk premium. The market, which retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $80.30 to a high of $87.63, later bounced of its low and backfilled its opening gap as it rallied to a high of $87.10 early in the morning. However, the market once again erased its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The May WTI settled down 48 cents at $86.43, while the June Brent contract settled down 79 cents at $90.38. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.43 cents at $2.7287 and the RB market settling down 4.00 cents at $2.7486. On Sunday, Israel said it had withdrawn more soldiers from southern Gaza, leaving just one brigade, as it and Hamas sent teams to Egypt for new talks on a potential ceasefire. Israel has been reducing numbers in Gaza since the start of the year to relieve reservists and is under growing pressure from the U.S. to improve the humanitarian situation, especially after last week's killing of seven aid workers. A military spokesperson did not give details on reasons for withdrawing soldiers or numbers involved. However, Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, said the troops will be preparing for future operations in Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas confirmed they were sending delegations to Egypt. Hamas wants any deal to bring about an end to the war and withdrawal of Israeli forces. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be no deal without a hostage release and that he would not cave to international pressure. Later, Israel’s Prime Minister said a date was set for an invasion of Rafah. Goldman Sachs said Brent oil will stay below $100/barrel in their base case because they assume already sold demand, no additional geopolitical supply hit and elevated spare capacity will lead OPEC+ to increase its production in the third quarter. It said geopolitical impediments to OPEC’s ability or desire to deploy spare capacity could send Brent crude prices above $100/barrel. The head of commodities at hedge fund Citadel, Sebastian Barrack, said global oil markets are on track to be “extremely tight” in the second half, with prices increasing to a level that will eventually constrain demand if OPEC does not bring back more supply. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 932,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending April 12th, increasing available refining capacity by 348,000 bpd.
Oil prices fall after Israel reduces troop presence in Gaza -- U.S. crude oil futures fell Monday after Israel reduced its troop presence in Gaza. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.55%, to settle at $86.43 a barrel. The June Brent contract lost 79 cents, or 0.87%, to settle at $90.38 a barrel. Israel withdrew forces from the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis over the weekend, bringing its troop levels in the enclave to one of the lowest levels since the war with Hamas began last October. Negotiations on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are ongoing in Cairo. U.S. crude and Brent gained more than 4% last week as tensions mounted between Israel and Iran, raising renewed fears that a direct confrontation between the two would lead to regional conflict that disrupts crude supplies. A top Iranian military advisor warned Israel over the weekend that its embassies could be targeted. Tehran has blamed Israel for a missile strike last Monday against its consulate in Damascus, which killed top Iranian commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. “None of the embassies of the (Israeli) regime are safe anymore,” said Gen. Rahim Safavi, an advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ukraine’s campaign of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries also lifted crude prices, with global supplies already tightening due to robust economic growth and OPEC+ production cuts.
Oil falls for second day as rally pauses while traders take stock of Middle East tensions -- Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the recent rally paused while traders took stock of where the conflict in Middle East was heading. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell $1.20, or 1.39%, to settle at $85.23 a barrel. The June Brent futures contract lost 96 cents, or 1.06%, to settle at $89.42 a barrel. “This is a day of profit taking for traders who have enjoyed a handsome gain year to date, and want to lock in the gains and stay on the sidelines,” said Manish Raj, managing director of Velandera Energy Partners. WTI has gained about 19% this year while Brent is up 16% as geopolitical tensions mount against the backdrop of rising demand and OPEC+ production cuts that are expected to push the market into a supply deficit this year. Barclays expects a 400,000 barrel per day deficit for 2024. Crude prices settled lower Monday after Israel reduced its forces in Gaza over the weekend, suggesting the country’s military campaign might transition to a more limited phase. But Stefano Pascale, head of equity derivatives strategy at Barclays, said there are still upside risks to oil prices, particularly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite the recent rally taking a pause. “Further melt-up may reawaken inflationary concerns, derailing the equity rally,” Pascale told clients in a note Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the March consumer price index reading on Wednesday to see how oil prices have impacted headline in Oil rallied more than 4% last week as Israel and Iran teetered on the brink of a direct confrontation after Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, was destroyed in a missile attack. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike. The U.S. has assessed that Israel is responsible. “The conflicts in the Middle East increase the risk of a wider regional conflict, which could have implications for oil supply, but it is important to note that Iran has, so far, refrained from getting directly involved in the conflict and OPEC spare capacity is currently elevated,” Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, told clients Friday. Raj said “traders are discounting the possibility of a direct armed conflict between Israel and Iran as the latter seems to be preparing for a toned-down retaliation through its proxies.” Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed late Monday to press on with an offensive against the southern city of Rafah on the Egyptian border, saying a date had been set for the operation. “This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen —there is a date,” Netanyahu said in an address. The U.S has warned Israel against launching an offensive against Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians who have fled fighting elsewhere in Gaza are taking refuge. Cease-fire negotiations also appeared deadlocked in Cairo, with Hamas saying Israel’s proposal did not meet Palestinian demands.
Oil prices settle lower again, eyes on talks for Gaza ceasefire (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower for a second day on Tuesday, as talks for a ceasefire in Gaza continued, but losses were limited to less than a dollar a barrel as Egyptian and Qatari mediators met resistance in their search to find a way out of the war.The talks in Cairo, also attended by the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, have so far failed to reach a breakthrough.Hamas said an Israeli proposal on a ceasefire met none of the demands of Palestinian militant factions, but that it would study the offer further and deliver its response to mediators.Brent crude futures settled 96 cents, or 1.1%, lower at $89.42 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed down $1.20 or 1.4% at $85.23.On Monday, Brent posted its first decline in five sessions and WTI its first in seven as a fresh round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo raised hopes of a breakthrough."Without an end to the conflict, there is an elevated risk that other countries, particularly Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, could be drawn into the war," said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index.The commander of the Revolutionary Guard's navy in Iran said it could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary. About a fifth of the volume of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait daily.Turkey announced it would restrict exports of various products, including jet fuel, to Israel until there is a ceasefire. Israel said it would respond with its own curbs.Adding to concerns of a tight market, Mexico's state oil company, Pemex, said it would reduce crude exports by 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May so it can supply more to domestic refineries, cutting by a third the supply available to its U.S., European and Asian buyers. Pemex had already cut its April exports by 436,000 bpd.Limiting oil price declines, overall fundamentals of tighter supplies remain unchanged, citing OPEC's supply cuts, reduction of fuel exports by Russia and geopolitical instability.U.S. crude oil output was expected to rise by 280,000 bpd to 13.21 million bpd in 2024, versus a prior forecast for a 260,000 bpd increase, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.EIA said it expects Brent crude prices to average $88.55 a barrel in 2024, versus a previous forecast of $87 a barrel.Vitol CEO Russell Hardy told a conference in Switzerland that he expected oil prices to trade in a range on $80-100 a barrel and expected oil demand growth of 1.9 million bpd in 2024.U.S. crude oil inventories climbed last week by 3.034 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Analysts had estimated that stocks would rise by about 2.4 million barrels. Official U.S. government inventory data is due on Wednesday morning.
Pump-Prices Continue To Surge, Gasoline Inventories See Small Build - Crude prices slid back to unchanged this morning - from some overnight gains - after a hotter than expected CPI print took demand-seducing rate-cuts off the table. However, as Bloomberg reports, oil is still up 19% this year as OPEC+ cuts supply and geopolitical tensions across the Middle East create strong tailwinds. The market is bracing for Iran’s response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria last week, and top traders have been striking an increasingly bullish tone in recent days. API reported a sizable crude build and another gasoline draw - all eyes will be on the official data for any confirmation. API
- Crude +3.03mm (+800k exp)
- Cushing +124k
- Gasoline -609k (-1.4mm exp)
- Distillates +120k (-600k exp)
DOE
- Crude +5.84mm (+800k exp)
- Cushing -170k
- Gasoline +715k (-1.4mm exp)
- Distillates +1.66mm (-600k exp)
Bigger than expected crude build surprised traders but a build in gasoline stocks was probably the most notable aspect of the report...In aggregate, this is a pretty chunky nationwide inventory build. Total crude and product stockpiles climbed by 12 million barrels, excluding SPR last week. That’s the biggest weekly gain since July last year. In addition to crude build, there were also increases in the other oils category, as well as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. The Biden admin added 595k barrels to the SPR last week...
Oil prices fall on big build in US crude, fuel inventories - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed crude oil and fuel inventories swelled by much more than expected on weak demand and lower oil exports. U.S. crude stocks climbed by 5.8 million barrels in the week ended April 5, more than double the about 2.4 million barrel rise analysts had expected. Refined products inventories rose unexpectedly with gasoline up by 700,000 barrels and distillate stocks by 1.7 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data also showed a roughly 2.1 million barrel per day (bpd) drop in oil product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, and a 2.7 million bpd drop in crude oil exports. Brent crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.14 per barrel at 11:06 a.m. EDT (1606 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $84.88. On Tuesday, both Brent and WTI fell more than 1%. “Some of the heat has come out of the rally in crude oil in the early part of this week on hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza and higher U.S. inventories,” The commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy in Iran said it could close the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. About a fifth of the volume of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the strait daily. On Tuesday, Hamas said an Israeli proposal on a ceasefire did not meet demands of Palestinian militant factions, but it would study the offer further and deliver its response to mediators. A continuing conflict could drag in other countries, particularly Hamas backer Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Separately, the U.S. EIA sharply raised its forecast for crude oil output. It now expects an increase of 280,000 bpd to 13.21 million bpd in 2024, up from its earlier forecast of a 20,000 bpd increase. The EIA said it expects Brent crude prices to average $88.55 a barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $87, and it upgraded its demand growth forecast for the past two years. “Broadly it reconfirmed an oil market outlook with OPEC+ in good control of the oil market,” Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks to public finances.
Oil prices rise 1% as traders brace for possible Iran strike against Israel - Crude oil futures rose 1% on Wednesday as the U.S. is reportedly bracing for an “imminent” strike by Iran or its proxies against Israel. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery rose 86 cents, or 1.01%, to $86.09 a barrel. June Brent futures gained 90 cents, or 1.01%, $90.32 a barrel. The U.S. and its allies see a major missile or drone strike by Iran or its proxies against Israel as imminent, people familiar with the intelligence told Bloomberg News. The possible attack could happen in the coming days, the people told Bloomberg. Tensions in the Middle East are red hot with Israel warning OPEC member Iran Wednesday it would attack the Islamic Republic if Tehran strikes Israel. “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on the social media platform X, tagging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei has threatened to punish Israel after Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, was destroyed in a missile attack last week, killing seven Iranian military officials. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, but the U.S. has assessed that Israel is responsible. “Consulates and embassies of any country are regarded as the soil of that country. When they attack our consulate, it means that they have attacked our soil,” Khamenei said Wednesday in a speech in Tehran after leading prayers for the Eid al-Fitr holiday. Oil prices haven fallen more than 1% this week as investors booked profits after last week’s rally. U.S. crude and the global benchmark have gained nearly 20% and 17%, respectively, this year as geopolitical tensions mount against the backdrop of a tightening global crude market. Oil prices had fallen earlier Wednesday after a major U.S. crude stockpile build and a hotter-than-expected inflation report. U.S. commercial crude stockpiles, which excludes the strategic petroleum reserve, rose by 5.8 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Fuel products supplied to the market, a proxy for demand, fell by more than 2 million barrels per day during the same period. The consumer price index rose 0.4% for March and 3.5% over the previous year, compared with expected gains of 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. The market was originally expecting the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates, but traders in the fed funds futures market are now expecting the first cut to come in September, according to CME Group calculations. Lower interest rates typically boost economic growth, which can lead to higher crude demand.
Oil Futures Gain as War Concerns Overtake Bearish EIA, CPI - Oil futures closest to delivery settled Wednesday's session higher, as hope for an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza diminished, overtaking bearish weekly supply-demand data and a surging U.S. dollar on renewed inflation concerns. Several media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, said an Israeli airstrike killed three adult sons of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza, with Israel indicating they were members of the Hamas military wing. The incident clouded the prospect for a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian nationalisst organization that was renewed on Sunday (4/7) amid intense international pressure, including from the United States. Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures surged last week following a missile strike in Damascus, Syria, on April 1 that killed several members of Iran's military, including two generals. Iran vowed retaliation, blaming Israel for the attack. The geopolitical threat of a broadening war in the Middle East outmuscled bearish statistics from the Energy Information Administration that showed across-the-board inventory builds and weak demand. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market plunged 624,000 bpd to an 8.612 million bpd six-week low, and distillate fuel supplied to the domestic market tumbled 509,000 bpd to a 2024 low last week. EIA data shows gasoline demand during the four weeks ended April 5 down 241,000 bpd or 2.7% against the comparable year-ago period at 8.843 million bpd, and demand for distillate fuel 349,000 bpd or 8.9% lower at 3.573 million bpd. Despite an inverse relationship, WTI futures advanced despite a surging U.S. dollar, which spiked 1.1% in index trading against a basket of foreign currencies to a 105.031 five-month high. The dollar surged in response to a hotter-than-expected month-on-month increase in a key inflation reading, with the U.S. consumer price index up 0.4% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Against a year ago, CPI is up 3.5% in March, with core CPI, which strips out energy and food because of their inherent volatility, up 3.8% from March 2023. Investors responded by pushing back their expectations for lower interest rates beyond July, with the Federal Open Market Committee not expected to reduce the federal funds rate from a 5.25% to 5.5% target range until September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 59% probability FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate in its current target range in July compared with a 25% probability on Tuesday. Minutes from the FOMC's March 19-20 meeting released at 2 p.m. EDT support this view. "Members viewed the economic outlook as uncertain and agreed that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks. In support of the Committee's goals to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run, members agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.5%." FOMC members reiterated their dependency on evaluating incoming economic data before making any changes to the policy rate, and that it would not "be appropriate to reduce the target range until they have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent." FOMC meets in May, June, July, September, November, and December. NYMEX May WTI futures settled up $0.98 at $86.21 bbl, and ICE June Brent gained $1.06 to $90.48 bbl. NYMEX May ULSD futures advanced $0.0306 to $2.7076 gallon, with the May RBOB contract up $0.0260 on the session with a $2.7816 gallon settlement.
Oil prices up as geopolitical tensions in Middle East fuel supply concerns -- Oil prices increased on Thursday after five-month highs due to strong demand forecasts in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, and rising concerns over global oil supply routes in the Middle East.International benchmark Brent crude traded at $90.61 per barrel as of 0739 GMT, a 0.14% increase from the closing price of $90.48 per barrel in the previous trading session.The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $85.28 per barrel at the same time, a 0.08% rise from the previous session that closed at $85.21 per barrel.The conflict between Israel and Palestine continues to put global energy supply routes at risk. Three sons of the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, along with four of his grandchildren, were killed Wednesday in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in western Gaza City. Prices rose as this fed concerns for the chances of a cease-fire in Gaza, where over six months of Israeli attacks have left over 33,500 Palestinians killed.The sides began a fresh round of talks earlier this week, with the discussions yet to yield a breakthrough.Further, a missile strike on the Iranian Consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, resulting in the killing of a top commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and six other officers, has also exacerbated tensions in the region, where busy energy supply routes are located.Tensions between Israel and Iran further rose on Wednesday, when Tehran vowed to avenge the attack, while Tel Aviv expressed readiness to retaliate if attacked.However, data showing that US commercial crude oil inventories and gasoline rose last week indicated low demand, limiting upward oil price movements.According to the US Energy Information Administration, commercial crude oil inventories in the country increased by about 5.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories rose by about 700,000 barrels.
Oil prices slip as inflation fears haunt the market - Crude oil futures fell Thursday as worries about inflation overshadowed fears of a potential Iranian strike on Israel for the moment.The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery lost 86 cents, or 1%, to $85.35 a barrel. The June Brent futures contract fell 62 cents, or 0.69%, to $89.86 a barrel. U.S. crude and the global benchmark are down about 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively.Oil prices rose more than 1% Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. and its allies see an Iranian strike against Israel as imminent.But futures dipped during morning trading Thursday as inflation fears also haunt the market after a hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading for March. A measure of wholesale prices in March, released Thursday, was lower than expected, but on a 12-month basis, the gauge of producer prices climbed 2.1%, which was the biggest jump it has logged since April 2023. The increase suggests inflation could stay elevated.The Federal Reserve is now expected to start reducing interest rates in September, much later than originally forecast, with only two cuts now penciled in for the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic growth, which fuels crude oil demand. Stubborn inflation is also raising questions about whether the U.S. economy will clinch a soft landing this year.
The Oil Market Ended 1.15% Higher Amid the Intensifying Geopolitical Tension in the Middle East -- The oil market ended 1.15% higher amid the intensifying geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The oil market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading after the market erased some of its previous gains early in the week. The market traded to $86.02 early in the session as it remained well supported by the threats between Israel and Iran, with Israel’s Foreign Minister stating that Israel would attack Iran, if Iran attacked its territory after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated threats of retribution for the deadly attack on its consulate in Syria. However, the oil market erased its gains and breached its previous lows following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index report showing that inflation increased more than expected in March, putting at risk the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut in June. The market was also pressured by the larger than expected build in crude stocks of over 5.8 million barrels and the unexpected builds in distillate and gasoline stocks of 1.6 million barrels and 715,000 barrels, respectively. The crude market sold off to a low of $84.55 by mid-day before it settled in a sideways trading range. The market later rallied higher and posted a high of $86.38 ahead of the close on a Bloomberg report stating that the U.S. and its allies believe an attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies is imminent. The May WTI contract settled up 98 cents at $86.21 and the June Brent contract settled up $1.06 at $90.48. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.06 cents at $2.7076 and the RB market settling up 2.6 cents at $2.7816. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories increased last week mainly driven by low crude exports and as implied demand for refined products declined. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico fell to 209,000 bpd in the week ending April 5th. It is the lowest level on record in the first week of April, as Mexico’s Pemex cut exports to supply more oil to its domestic refineries.UBS raised its oil forecasts higher by $5/barrel as it increased its 2024 oil demand growth estimates and reduced its OPEC+ crude production projection for the second quarter of the year. It said market conditions this summer will allow for some voluntary OPEC+ production cuts to be unwound but added that this should be a gradual process. It said Brent oil will likely trade in the upper half of its new forecast trading range of $85-$95/barrel. It sees oil demand growth in 2024 of 1.5 million bpd and demand growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2025. In regards to Russia, UBS said it expects the country’s crude production to fall to 9 million bpd by June, down from 9.5 million bpd in the first quarter. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and its allies believe an attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies is imminent.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending April 12th, increasing available refining capacity by 231,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 994,000 bpd in the week ending April 19th.
Oil Futures Up on Geopolitics, Pare Gains on Demand Worry -- Oil futures jumped higher to kick off the last trading day of the week, shaped by the push-and-pull of U.S. macroeconomic indicators on the one side and escalating rhetoric between Israel and Iran on the other.Wednesday's consumer price index showing inflation in the United States remaining stickier than expected in March acted as a deathblow to expectations the Federal Reserve might kick off the rate-cutting cycle in June. The resulting support for the U.S. dollar and prospects of a struggling manufacturing sector exerted downward pressure on oil prices.At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have been ramping up after Iran vowed revenge for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed high-ranking Iranian officials. U.S. and Israeli intelligence services now expect an attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission or Israeli soil to be imminent. Fears of an armed conflict with the 3.2 million bpd crude oil producing country which could destabilize the entire region acted as a counterweight to monetary policy concerns this week.Friday morning, the International Energy Agency in its latest Oil Market Report once again lowered its demand growth estimates. The Paris-based energy watchdog expects global oil demand to expand by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.1 million bpd in 2025, citing slower growth and sluggish manufacturing activity in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries as the main reason for the 130,000-bpd downward revision to this year's estimate. This came after the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday also trimmed growth expectations for this year in the latest Short-term Energy Outlook, from 1.43 million bpd to 950,000 bpd following a large upward revision to 2023 estimates. OPEC, in contrast, left demand growth expectations unchanged in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released Thursday, calling for 2.25 million bpd of global oil demand growth in 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025.Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery were up $1.12 to trade near $86.14 barrel (bbl), and Brent for June delivery gained $1.02 to $90.76 bbl. RBOB for May delivery was up $0.0387 to $2.8128 gallon, while ULSD for May delivery traded near $2.7056 gallon, up $0.0458.
Oil prices spike as markets fear escalation of Middle East conflict amid reports of Israel bracing for attack by Iran -- Oil prices shot up on Friday amid reports Israel is gearing up for an attack by Iran as early as this weekend, an event that would mark the most significant escalation in Middle East tensions since last October's Israel-Hamas conflict. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose as much as 2% before paring some gains. WTI hovered around $85.88 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Brent surged past $90 a barrel, hitting $91.98. The sudden spike in crude prices came after reports that Israel was bracing for a potential direct attack from Iran on southern or northern territory as soon as Friday or Saturday, though sources close to Iranian leaders told The Wall Street Journal that no final decision had been reached yet. Oil has been on the rise in recent weeks as economic activity in the US remains high and conflict simmers in the Middle East, with some commentators eyeing a rapid ascent to $100 a barrel if war spills out into the greater region. "If push comes to shove between Israel and Iran, $100 or more is likely," Market veteran Ed Yardeni commented on Friday. Iran's potential method of attack on Israel is uncertain, though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond directly to any aggression. Earlier this week, US intelligence reports indicated an imminent threat of an attack on Israeli assets by Iran or its proxies, which was confirmed by a knowledgeable US official, specifying that the potential strike could target "possibly on Israeli soil" rather than Israeli interests elsewhere. The killing of seven Iranian military personnel by an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria this week signaled a notable intensification of hostilities. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has pledged to retaliate against Israel. Broader financial markets are on edge over the possibility that the conflict intensifies. Stocks were down on Friday, with the S&P 500 shedding 1.5% by midday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling nearly 500 points. "The financial markets are bracing for this calamitous scenario. The S&P 500 has had a nearly vertical ascent of 27.6% from 4117.37 on October 27, 2023 to 5254.35 on March 29. That might be it for a while, especially if push does come to shove between Israel and Iran," Yardeni wrote. "For now, we are sticking with our yearend target of 5400, but we can't rule out a test of the 200-dma under the circumstances." The unease pushed up the price of safe-haven assets, with gold reaching another record high Friday and US government bond yields tumbling.
Oil settles up on Middle East tensions, posts weekly loss -(Reuters) - Oil rose around 1% on Friday on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but posted a weekly loss on a bearish world oil demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and worries about slower U.S. interest rate cuts.Brent crude futures settled up 71 cents at $90.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 64 cents to $85.66.For the week, Brent declined 0.8%, while WTI fell more than 1%.During the week, oil prices neared a six-month high on concern that Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, might retaliate for a suspected Israeli warplane attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus on Monday."The market's main focus is on whether Iran will retaliate against Israel," , with the fear of supply disruption associated with the events in the Middle East supporting prices. The U.S. expects an attack by Iran against Israel but one that would not be big enough to draw Washington into war, according to a U.S. official. Iranian sources said Tehran has signaled a response aimed at avoiding major escalation.Supply chain issues still carry the biggest risk premium as Iran maintains its threat to shut the Suez Canal.The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).OPEC on Thursday said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024."For now the market is mostly in the OPEC 2.2 million bpd demand growth camp as opposed to the IEA's reduced 1.2 million bpd forecast," said Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen.Friday's gains erased the previous session's losses, which were dominated by stubborn U.S. inflation that dampened hopes for an interest rate cut as early as June.Higher interest rates can weaken economic growth and depress oil demand. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report.The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by three to 617 in the week to April 12, the lowest since November.Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Here's What Will Push Oil Above $100/Bbl --Back in early December, just after Powell's dovish pivot shocked everyone, many closet oil bulls like BofA's energy strategist Francisco Blanch, predicted that a dovish Fed would send oil back to $100. Unfortunately for him, oil did nothing and just one month later, as no oil buying had materialized, Blanch threw in the bullish towel and cut his oil price forecast by 11%, ironically bottom ticking to the dot oil just as it was about to soar by 20% in the next three months, an ascent which was capped with... Blanch raising his Brent oil price forecast.To be sure, BofA wasn't the only one to predict $100 oil: two weeks ago JPMorgan commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva was looking at Russia's unexpected pivot to producing less oil than it was allowed, and wrote that "the shift in Russia’s oil strategy is surprising" and "at face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s actions could push Brent oil price to $90 already in April, reach mid-$90 by May and close to $100 by September, keeping pressure on the US administration in the run-up to elections."In short, the fate of Biden's re-election was now in the hands of Putin if the Russian leader wanted to push up the price of oil back to triple digits by limiting output, and the only recourse Biden has - according to JPMorgan - was releasing another 60 million barrels of oil from the SPR (see full JPM note here).But it increasingly appears that $100+ oil is inevitable, regardless of what Putin does or does not do, and as Bloomberg writes over the weekend, the odds of $100 oil are rapidly rising, because while the recent surge in po; above $90 just days ago was blamed on escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, "the rally’s foundations went deeper — to global supply shocks that are intensifying fears of a commodity-driven inflation resurgence."Consider: a recent move by Mexico to slash its crude exports is compounding a global squeeze, prompting refiners in the US (the world’s biggest oil producer) to consume more domestic barrels. At the same time, American sanctions have stranded Russian cargoes at sea, with Venezuelan supply a potential next target. Meanwhile, Houthi rebel attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have delayed crude shipments, and despite all the "turmoil", OPEC and its allies are sticking with their production cuts.It all adds up to a magnitude of supply disruption that has taken traders by surprise. The crunch is turbocharging an oil rally ahead of the US summer driving season, threatening to push Brent crude, the global benchmark, to $100 for the first time in almost two years; in fact the last time oil was trading there, Joe Biden was draining the SPR to the tune of several million barrels per week. That’s amplifying the inflation concerns that are clouding US President Joe Biden’s reelection chances and complicating central banks’ rate-cut deliberations.
Ukraine strikes at Russian oil as battlefield desperation mounts --Ukraine is ramping up attacks on Russian oil refineries in a campaign that has damaged Moscow’s most important source of revenue. Ukraine’s forces have struck oil refineries deep inside Russia at least 12 times during the war, disrupting at least 10 percent of Russian refining capacity, according to the British Defense Ministry. In March alone, Ukraine carried out five successful reported strikes on several oil refineries. The attacks underscore how Ukraine is continuing to wield relatively cheap technology to conduct savvy strikes that damage Russia — as it has also done with naval drones against Russia’s Black Sea fleet. But experts say the oil refinery attacks would need to ramp up to change the calculus on the battlefield, where Russia has seized the upper hand in recent months, thanks in part to Republicans in U.S. Congress refusing to pass new aid for Ukraine. John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said if Ukraine is “able to scale this up in a big way, it could be a way to gain leverage over Russia.” “To the extent it affects the war, it would probably be more in finances,” he said. “For every dollar that Moscow doesn’t generate through taxes on industry, that’s a dollar that it can’t put into soldiers or producing weapons.”The attacks so far have penetrated up to 800 miles into Russia from Ukraine, but they appear to have only caused moderate damage to the Russian oil refineries, allowing Moscow to repair the targeted facilities. A March intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian strikes have forced Russia to do “major repairs,” which “could take considerable time and expense.” “Sanctions are highly likely increasing the time and cost of sourcing replacement equipment,”British intelligence officials wrote. “These strikes are imposing a financial cost on Russia, impacting the domestic fuel market.”
With Syria strike, Israel ratchets up its shadow war with Iran --The shadow war between Israel and Iran took a dramatic turn with the recent Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular building in Syria. This bold and unprecedented attack resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking Iranian military figure. It also marked a pivotal escalation in the complex chess game of regional power dynamics. The United Nations Security Council’s briefing on the incident underscored the grave nature of the situation. Iran’s letter to the UN and the Security Council detailed the missile strikes that obliterated its diplomatic presence in Damascus, killing at least five Iranian personnel and wounding others. Media reports have since adjusted the death toll to 13, encompassing both Iranian and Syrian nationals. The attack constituted a breach of Syrian sovereignty and contravened the Charter of the United Nations, in addition to violating the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. Some governments condemned the airstrike, emphasizing the sacrosanct principle of diplomatic and consular premises’ inviolability under international law. From an analytical perspective, the airstrike is a significant escalation in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, indicating a potential shift towards more overt confrontations. The attack suggests a calculated move by Israel to assert its deterrence capabilities and send a clear message to Iran and the world about its resolve to counter perceived existential threats. Israel’s decision may have been influenced by many factors, including intelligence on imminent threats, the desire to disrupt Iranian military and intelligence operations in Syria or an attempt to forestall Iranian ambitions to further influence in its immediate neighborhood. The timing and nature of the strike reflect a deeper strategic calculus to recalibrate the status quo. Some Iranian officials have questioned the potential role that Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s may have played, including a tacit agreement with Israel to restore sovereignty in order to govern Syria free from the control of the Iranian proxies. Others see the attack as a attempt to provoke Iran to take measures that justify significant escalation as a strategy to shift focus away from the crisis in Gaza, leaving the United States with no choice but to support Israel. Whatever the motives, Israel’s bold maneuver serves as a test of the international response to such overt military actions, gauging the limits of global tolerance for interventions deemed necessary for national security.Iran, faced with the loss of a strategic military asset and a blow to its regional prestige, stands at a crossroads. How it responds to this provocation will reveal much about its strategic priorities and capacity to balance regional dominance aspirations with the pragmatic desire to avoid full-scale conflict. The incident may necessitate a reassessment of tactics and strategies within the Axis of Resistance, the coalition Iran has built to counterbalance American and Israeli influence, potentially leading to a more pronounced aggressive posture against Israeli interests. Moreover, the incident underscores the vulnerabilities Iran faces in projecting power through proxies, emphasizing the operational and symbolic significance of targeting a consular facility. This evolving landscape requires a recalibration of Iran’s proxy strategy, highlighting the need for a more nuanced and adaptable approach to safeguard its interests amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
US Thinks Iranian Retaliation Against Israel Is Imminent - The US and its allies believe Iranian retaliation for the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Syria is imminent, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.Sources told Bloomberg that, based on US and Israeli intelligence, Iran or its allies in the region could launch a major missile and drone attack on military and government targets inside Israel in the coming days.Axios reported something similar, saying Israel is expecting a direct Iranian attack on its territory launched from Iran’s soil. Israeli sources told the outlet that Israel would respond by launching direct attacks on Iran, which would likely require US support. A major Iranian response could be exactly what Israel wants, as it appears to be trying to provoke a wider regional war to get the US to intervene directly.The Axios report said that the top US military commander in the Middle East, Gen. Erik Kurilla, is due to visit Israel on Thursday to coordinate on the potential Iranian attack. President Biden signaled he would directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel in a warning to Tehran he issued on Wednesday.“We also want to address the Iranian threat to launch a significant – they’re threatening to launch a significant attack in Israel,” Biden said. “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re gonna do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”Israel has a history of covert attacks inside Iran and killing Iranians in airstrikes in Syria. Iran is usually restrained in its responses to Israeli attacks, but the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic facility marked a huge escalation. The airstrikes killed a senior Quds Force commander, another Iranian general, and five other members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian General Warns That No Israeli Embassy Is Safe - An Iranian general warned on Sunday that no Israeli embassy is safe as Israel is preparing for a potential Iranian response to its bombing of Iran’s consulate in Syria.“None of the Zionist regime’s embassies are safe anymore, and therefore, it has so far closed down 28 of its embassies out of fear,”said Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, an advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Safavi appeared to be referring to Israeli media reports that said 28 Israeli embassies and consulates have been temporarily closed due to fears of an Iranian attack. “They dream of dying every night and they are the most fearful creatures,” Safavi said. The Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate killed 13 people, including a senior Iranian general and six other members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran has killed several members of the IRGC in Syria since October 7, but the brazen attack on a diplomatic facility marked a huge escalation in its attacks on Iranians in the region. Iran is usually very restrained in its responses to Israeli attacks, but the consulate bombing could provoke something big, which could be exactly what Israel wants as it appears to be seeking a regional war that would bring direct US intervention. US officials told NBC News that they are concerned Iran might be planning to hit targets inside Israel or an Israeli consulate building in the region. They said the strikes could be launched using a swarm of drones or land-attack cruise missiles.On Friday, Mohammad Jamshidi, an aide to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, said Tehran told the US not to get involved if Iran responds. “In a written message, the Islamic Republic of Iran warns US leadership not to get dragged in Netanyahu’s trap for US: Stay away so you won’t get hurt,” he wrote on X. Jamshidi said that in response to the message, the US asked Iran not to target American facilities, but the White House denied his characterization of the exchange of messages, calling it “Iranian spin.”“We received a message from Iran following the strike in Damascus. In response, we made clear that we were not behind the strike. We also warned Iran to not use the strike as a pretext to further escalate in the region or attack US facilities or personnel,” a Biden administration official told NBC.
US Could Launch Joint Retaliatory Strikes With Israel If It Is Attacked By Iran: Official - Upping the ante, a US official has told Al Jazeera that the Pentagon could intervene militarily if there is an Iranian attack launched against Israel.According to a translation from Al Jazeera Arabic, the US source said, "We do not rule out launching joint retaliatory strikes with Israel if it is attacked by Iran or its agents."There was no further elaboration, or an indicator whether a US joint response with Israel would include offensive strikes against Iran, or if this would just be defensive, for example - anti air measures. However, Axios has the following details which appears to confirm the Al Jazeera reporting:The senior U.S. military commander in charge of the Middle East is expected to go to Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies, two Israeli officials said....The commander of the U.S. military central command (CENTCOM) Gen. Erik Kurilla is expected to meet senior Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) officials and Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant.Yesterday, Israeli officials threatened that Iranian nuclear sites could be targeted, in one of the biggest strike threats to date. The region is on edge awaiting an 'imminent' response by Iran following the April 1st deadly attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus. US intelligence has said it believes a revenge attack from Tehran is coming soon.
US Says It Conducted 94 Missions Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria This Year - According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US and its partner forces in Iraq and Syria conducted 94 operations against ISIS in the first three months of this year.CENTCOM said it was involved in 66 operations with Iraqi government forces in Iraq and 28 operations with the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. The missions resulted in the killing of 18 alleged ISIS operatives and the detainment of 63.ISIS holds no significant territory in either Iraq or Syria, and remnants of the group operate in rural areas. The fight against ISIS is what the US uses as its excuse to stay in both countries, but the presence is more about countering Iran and its allies.According to the latest numbers, the US has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria.The update on US operations against ISIS comes after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudanicalled for the US to leave his country and said Iraqi security forces can handle ISIS remnants on their own. The US entered talks with al-Sudani’s government about a potential withdrawal but appears determined to stay in the country.In Syria, the government is opposed to the US presence, making it an illegal military occupation. By backing the SDF, the US is able to control about one-third of Syria’s territory, an area where most of the country’s vital oil and gas fields are located. The US also maintains crippling economic sanctions on Syria specifically designed to prevent reconstruction.
Hamas, Israel Say No Progress Made in Ceasefire Talks - Both Hamas officials and Israeli officials said on Monday that no progress was made toward a hostage deal in Egyptian and Qatari-mediated ceasefire negotiations that are taking place in Cairo. Ali Barakam, a senior Hamas official based in Lebanon, said the Palestinian group had rejected the latest proposal from Israel. “We reject the latest Israeli proposals that the Egyptian side informed us of. The politburo met today and decided this,” he told Reuters.Another unnamed Hamas official said Israel had not changed its position. “There is no change in the position of the occupation (Israel), and therefore, there is nothing new in the Cairo talks,” the official said.An Israeli official told Ynet that they “still don’t see a deal on the horizon” and that the two sides are still far apart.A Hamas official told CNN that Israel’s latest proposal did not address Hamas’s key demands, which include a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal. “The [Israeli] proposal does not respond to the questions that [Hamas] has asked in its original proposal, and that is that any agreement should clearly include a ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of [Israeli] troops – even if it happens through stages – and the return of the displaced in complete freedom to their homes,” the official said.The CNN report said CIA Director William Burns had presented a deal to bridge the gaps between the two sides. The proposal involves the release of 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for about 900 Palestinian prisoners. The US would also like Israel to allow Palestinians who fled from northern Gaza to be able to return to the north.Pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a hostage deal, and Israeli officials have accused him of intentionally sabotaging the talks. Haaretz recently reported that Israeli intelligence believes only 60-70 hostages in Gaza are still alive.Netanyahu has made clear that any ceasefire he agrees to would only be temporary as he is vowing to launch an invasion of Rafah and said Monday that he set a date to attack the city.
Israel Kills Hezbollah Commander, Three Others in Airstrike on Southern Lebanon House - At least four people were killed and an unspecified number of others wounded when Israel carried out an airstrike against an occupied house in Sultaniyeh, in southern Lebanon. Among those killed was a leader in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force.The commander was identified as Ali Ahmad Hassin and Hezbollah said he was “carrying out his jihadist duties” at the time of his death. The Radwan Force is Hezbollah’s elite commando unit.A second Hezbollah man was slain, identified as local figure Abbas Jaafar, and a third Hezbollah figure remains unidentified. A fourth victim remains unidentified.The airstrike targeted an occupied house in a residential community, badly damaging many surrounding homes. More than a dozen families were said to have lost their homes in the incident.In addition to Sultaniyeh, Israeli reconnaissance aircraft were reported to target Ramia and Aita ash-Shaab with machine gun fire. No casualties have been reported as of now.Israeli has been escalating attacks in recent weeks, with casualties nearly a daily occurrence and airstrikes almost always hitting and badly damaging residential areas. Some thousand homes are reported to have been damaged so far.The UN issued a statement today warning about the continued escalation. It urges the two sides to step back and find a way to cease hostilities before the situation becomes more catastrophic.
Gallant: Israel Withdrawing From Southern Gaza to Prepare for Rafah Invasion - The Israeli military announced on Sunday that it was withdrawing troops from parts of southern Gaza, a step Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said was being taken to prepare for an assault on Rafah, the southern city on the Egyptian border that’s packed with 1.5 million Palestinians.“The withdrawal of the troops from Khan Yunis was carried out after Hamas ceased to function as a military organization in the city, the forces left to prepare for the operation in Rafah,” Gallant said.Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the head of the Israeli military, said the withdrawal does not mean the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians would end anytime soon. “The war in Gaza continues, and we are far from stopping. Senior Hamas officials are still in hiding. We will get to them sooner or later,” he said.According to The Jerusalem Post, the withdrawal means Palestinians can move freely in southern Gaza and in the city of Khan Younis. But the Israeli military is still keeping northern Gaza cut off from the south.The White House said the Israeli announcement was likely about restfor the Israeli troops, who have been in southern Gaza for four months. “As we understand it, and through their public announcements, it is really just about rest and refit for these troops that have been on the ground for four months and not necessarily, that we can tell, indicative of some coming new operation for these troops,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
Ismail Haniyeh: Israeli airstrike kills three sons of Hamas political leader in Gaza as ceasefire talks stutter | CNN — Three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza Wednesday, with Haniyeh insisting their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks. Four of Haniyeh’s grandchildren were also killed in the attack, according to Hamas, which comes amid fresh efforts in Cairo to bring a temporary halt to months of fighting. Haniyeh in a statement said killing the sons of leaders would only make Hamas “more steadfast in our principles and adherence to our land.” “Whoever thinks that by targeting my kids during the negotiation talks and before a deal is agreed upon that it will force Hamas to back down on its demands, is delusional,” he added. The Israeli military confirmed it carried out the attack, describing the men as “three Hamas military operatives that conducted terrorist activity in the central Gaza Strip.” According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel Security Agency (ISA), those killed were Amir Haniyeh, a cell commander in Hamas’ military wing, and Hamas military operatives Mohammad Haniyeh and Hazem Haniyeh. The three were killed when the vehicle they were driving in was bombed in the Al Shati refugee camp, northwest of Gaza City, Hamas political leader Haniyeh told Al Jazeera. The IDF told CNN it is aware of claims that other relatives of Haniyeh were harmed, among them a minor. The IDF added it had not verified this information. Hamas named the four grandchildren as Mona, Amal, Khalid and Razan, calling them “martyrs.” The Hamas-run government media office (GMO) said Wednesday that the Haniyeh family had been “carrying out social and family visits on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr,” before the vehicle was struck. Eid al-Fitr marks the end of Ramadan and is one of the most important holidays on the Islamic calendar.
Hamas Leader's Sons & Grandchildren Killed In Single Israeli Airstrike The leader of Hamas has had much of his family wiped out in a new Israeli airstrike. Hamas has confirmed that its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, received word that three of his sons and grandchildren were killed in an Israeli assault Wednesday. International reports say a drone strike targeted a car that his three sons, Hazem, Amir and Mohammed, were driving in. There were traveling with other family members in the car through a refugee camp northwest of Gaza City. While one young girl reportedly survived the strike, three of Haniyeh's grandchildren did not. The group was reportedly traveling within Gaza to attend an Eid al-Fitr holiday celebration with relatives."All our people and all the families of Gaza's residents have paid a heavy price with the blood of their children, and I am one of them," Haniyeh said in a statement to Al Jazeera soon after learning of their deaths."Through the blood of the martyrs and the pain of the wounded, we create hope, we create the future, we create independence and freedom for our people and our nation," he added.This has resulted in some speculation or expectation that ongoing truce talks could be called off on Haniyeh's order; however, he has sought to personally assure that his family members' deaths will not impact ceasefire negotiations.The Israeli side appears to have confirmed that the car was targeted in a drone strike, in the following somewhat strange orunexpected statement: Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari says fighter jets attacked “three military operatives” in central Gaza, referring to a car carrying Haniyeh’s children, who were killed earlier today.He identified the three as Amir, Hazem and Mohammad Haniyeh.The Israeli army “confirms” that they are “the children of Ismail Haniyeh”, Hagari said.Thus it's clear that Israel had categorized the Hamas political chief's sons as "militants" in the organization. They were all adults. It remains unclear whether the IDF is categorizing the young grandchildren in the same way.
Erez Border Crossing Into Northern Gaza Still Not Open for Aid Despite Israeli Commitment - Israel’s Erez border crossing into northern Gaza has still not been opened for aid deliveries despite a commitment Israel made last week to do so following a call between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, El Pais reported on Tuesday.Biden told Netanyahu to take more action to allow aid into Gaza following the Israeli killing of seven workers for the World Central Kitchen, who were hit by several Israeli missiles while traveling along a pre-approved route.After the Biden-Netanyahu call, the Israeli cabinet approved the opening of Erez and the use of the Israeli port of Ashdod as a hub for humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza. But, according to the El Paisreport, Israel has yet to fulfill either commitment.The Israeli government said 468 aid trucks were allowed into Gaza on Tuesday, the highest number since October 7, and 419 entered the Strip on Monday. But UN officials are disputing the numbers and say most of the trucks being counted are only half full when they are inspected by Israel.The aid is only being allowed in mainly through Egypt’s Rafah border crossing and, to a lesser extent, the Kerem Shalom crossing. Both connect to southern Gaza, and it’s unclear how much food aid is getting into the north, where Palestinians are facing the worst food shortages.Jens Laerke, spokesman for the UN’s humanitarian agency, said food aid has been subject to the most restrictions, demonstrating that Israel is purposely starving civilians. “Food convoys that should be going particularly to the north, where 70 percent of people face famine conditions, are … three times more likely to be denied than any other humanitarian convoys with other kinds of material,” Laerke said.
Gaza Asks Us A Question About What Kind Of Future We Want To Have by Caitlin Johnstone -- A live-streamed genocide happening right out in the open forces a civilization to start asking questions about itself. If something like this can happen in plain view of everyone, and the people in charge not only do nothing but actively facilitate it, then you have to start wondering if everything about your entire nation is deranged, and if everything you’ve been told about the world is a lie. If something so nakedly evil — undisguised by anything besides a thin veneer of Zionist gaslighting telling us we’re not seeing what we’re seeing — can be allowed to stand by those we’ve entrusted to run things, then it means our entire society is diseased. Our government. Our political systems. Our media. Our education systems. Our worldviews. Our culture. It’s all rotted and corrupted, right down to the core. The future we are being shown through the window of Gaza is dark. Dark, dark, dark, dark. They’re currently using artificial intelligence to create kill lists and to determine when its targets will be at home with their families to ensure maximum civilian deaths. We used to worry about a dark future where humans send machines to go kill people indiscriminately, but it turns out it’s actually happening the other way around — we’re programming machines to tell us who to kill. The horror in our present dystopia isn’t so much autonomous murderbots as ethical decisions about killing being outsourced to AI. We’re being asked to accept this and move forward in this direction into the future. We’re being asked to walk into the future holding the assumption that it’s fine and normal for our governments to knowingly support an unforgivable act of mass slaughter upon the inhabitants of a giant concentration camp. We’re being asked to walk into the future holding the assumption that it’s fine and normal for the mass media to lie and distort and misinform the public about a matter of such urgent importance day after day, month after month. We’re being asked to walk into the future holding the assumption that it’s fine and normal for a blatant genocide to take place right in front of our faces, and then move on as though nothing happened. And right now we’re collectively ruminating on the question of whether we’re going to decide to do those things, or if we’re going to decide to do something else instead. The Gaza genocide is such a massive thing in and of itself — the injustice, the murder, the loss, the unfathomable suffering. But what’s happening in Gaza is also about so much more than Gaza. It’s a moment in history where humanity is thinking seriously about real revolutionary change, and weighing the options between that and continuing along this tired old blood-soaked path we’ve been travelling on for millennia. Gaza proves that our entire civilization is cancerous, and that everything we’ve been doing has failed. When you come across information which blows apart your worldview in your personal life, you can either collapse under the weight of cognitive dissonance until you find some way to plug yourself back into the comforting lies, or you can set about the hard work of forming a new way of looking at things. That’s the sort of moment we’re being collectively offered with Gaza. We’ll either accept the invitation, or continue our slide into darkness.
Threat of war between Israel and Iran grows as new offensives launched in Gaza - Tensions between Israel and Iran reached new heights Thursday after the United States warned of an “imminent” attack being planned by Tehran. The Iranian regime has said since Israel’s bombing of its Syrian embassy at the start of this month, killing senior members of Iran’s military, that it would retaliate. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz threatened Thursday, “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.” Speaking at the Tel Nof Air Base, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told air force personnel: “We are in challenging times. We are in the midst of a war in Gaza that is continuing with full force. In addition, we are continuing with ceaseless efforts to return our hostages, but we are also preparing for challenges from other fronts. “We set a simple principle: Anyone who hits us, we hit them. We are ready to fulfil our responsibilities to Israel’s security, in defence and attack.” According to Israeli news stations, the country’s air force recently conducted joint exercises with Cyprus to “simulate an attack in Iran.” The Israel Defense Forces are on high alert, with weekend leave cancelled and the army calling up extra reservists to the Aerial Defence Array. A top US general, Erik Kurilla, head of the US Central Command, landed in Israel for talks with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was assured by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in a call Wednesday evening that Washington would back Israel fully in any conflict with Iran. President Joe Biden had said in a press conference earlier that day, “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad, ironclad.” Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a member of the Intelligence Committee, described the situation as “the most dangerous Middle East moment since 1973,” warning, “Iran wants to launch a large-scale attack from their own territory against Israel. Israel will respond instantly with an even more severe counterattack inside of Iran.” Even as they push Iran to respond to such provocations, the US and European powers have demanded Tehran show a “restraint” never expected of their ally Israel. American Middle East envoy Brett McGurk directed the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to speak with Tehran and urge its government to back down. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock urged “maximum restraint” in the name of “avoiding further regional escalation.” But it is the imperialist powers who have constantly and deliberately driven the escalation, providing Israel with weapons and diplomatic and military support to carry out a genocide in Gaza and brazenly attack its opponents in Lebanon and Syria. Last December, Gallant described Israel as being engaged in a “multi-front war” across “seven theatres.” At the very start of Israel’s war, the United States dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean to insure the country against retaliation. These forces intercepted 11 drones launched by the Iran and Palestine-aligned Houthis in Yemen on Wednesday. The most unashamedly hawkish voices in Israel and the imperialist centres have been urging Israel to attack Iran directly.
Iran launches Israel attack that risks sparking regional war in the Middle East -- Iran launched a retaliatory attack against Israel on Saturday that risks sparking a regional conflict involving U.S. military forces. The attack marked the first time that Iran has launched a direct military attack on the Jewish state. Several hours after the attack began, U.S. officials said that American forces in the region had shot down several Iranian drones and were also trying to shoot down Iranian missiles bound for Israel. "US forces in the region continue to shoot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel," a U.S. official said. "Our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support and to protect US forces operating in the region." Iranian state television said that “in response to crimes by the Zionist Regime,” Iran had launched “missiles and drones on specific locations in the occupied lands.” The attack came weeks after a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria’s capital, Damascus, killed two generals and five officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Israel did not take responsibility for that strike, but Tehran vowed revenge. White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement that president Joe Biden was being updated about the situation by his national security team. Additionally, the statement said Biden’s team is in “constant contact” with Israeli officials, partners and allies. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, as well as American warships in the region, are part of the effort to thwart the Iranian attack, U.S. officials said. They include the USS Carney, a destroyer that has been involved in knocking out missiles and drones in the Red Sea fired by Iranian-backed Houthi forces from Yemen. The U.S. has signaled its support for Israel and worked to persuade Iran to stop short of a significant escalation that could spiral into a full-blown war between Iran and Israel. Through decades of tensions with Israel, Iran has previously avoided a direct conflict with the Jewish state, instead opting to damage its adversary through armed proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and elsewhere. In back-channel communications with the U.S. over the past two weeks, Iran indicated it would retaliate against Israel but wanted to avoid a massive escalation that would lead to all-out war, U.S. officials told NBC News. The question now is whether Iran’s attack will be interpreted in the way Tehran has planned, or trigger an unintended reaction from Israel that could escalate into an uncontrollable cycle of violence, analysts said.
A “war against humanity”: Six months of the Gaza genocide * The death toll currently stands at 33,137. Once the missing are added, the true toll is likely over 44,000. A further 75,815 people have been wounded. Over the course of just six months, 5.45 percent of Gaza’s population has been killed, wounded or is missing. A comparable percentage of the American population would be more than 18 million people. Most shocking of all is the fact that two-thirds of those killed are women and children. Israel has deliberately targeted medical workers, humanitarian workers, journalists and artists. It is waging, as World Central Kitchen founder Jose Andres said Sunday, a “war against humanity.” In the course of the past six months, every element of the US-Israeli justification for bombing, invading and blockading Gaza has been exposed as a lie. Earlier this year, it was revealed that Israel was in possession of Hamas’s entire operational plan for the October 7 attack that served as the pretext for the war. Despite this knowledge, Israeli intelligence and military forces were ordered to stand down and redeploy from the Gaza border immediately ahead of the attack. In a matter of days, the Israeli military put into effect long-held plans for a genocidal war against the population of Gaza. “We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,” declared Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on October 9. “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel.” Just four days later, Israeli President Isaac Herzog declared, “It’s an entire nation out there that is responsible. It’s not true this rhetoric about civilians not aware, not involved… we will fight until we break their backbone.” Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter declared, “We’re rolling out the Gaza Nakba.” Having made these statements of genocidal intent, the Netanyahu government systematically targeted all aspects of social, economic and cultural life in Gaza, working to level every hospital, school and home, and kill as many men, women and children as possible. The genocide has undeniably shown that the perspective of Zionism is bankrupt and reactionary. Israel will forever be marked by its association with mass murder. It is the end product of decades of brutal oppression of the Palestinians, and the false identification of the interests of the Jewish people as a whole with the Israeli state. Beyond Israel, the genocide stands as a condemnation of the entire imperialist order. The capitalist powers in the US-NATO axis have supported, armed, funded and politically justified one of the greatest crimes of the modern era. As the Israeli government was publicly stating its intent to massacre and expel the population of Gaza, the Biden administration declared over and over its opposition to any negotiated settlement of the conflict. There is “no possibility” of a ceasefire, Biden said on November 9. Just days later, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer addressed a pro-genocide rally in Washington, in which he bellowed, “We stand with you ... . We will not rest until you get the assistance you need.” Over the course of six months, the Biden administration has made more than 100 separate arms transfers to Israel, making it clear that the Netanyahu government has a green light to starve, kill and torture the population of Gaza at will. This reality stands as an unanswerable rebuttal to the claims by the Biden administration and US media that the White House has sought to “pressure” the Netanyahu government to protect civilians. In fact, the administration’s policy has amounted to a massive blank check for Israel, a policy that continues to this day despite the purely verbal criticism of Netanyahu by the White House. The Biden administration’s categorical support for the Israeli genocide is part of an eruption of US militarism throughout the Middle East, including Iran, as part of a broader struggle for global domination targeting Russia and China. The Gaza genocide will have vast and far-reaching social and political consequences. Already, the mass murder in Gaza has sparked the largest global mass demonstrations since the Iraq war. It has shown the imperialist powers, who endlessly invoke “human rights” to justify their wars, as enablers and accomplices of genocide. Most of all, the Gaza genocide is a crime of capitalism. The capitalist social order is legitimizing every form of social barbarism: from nuclear war to perpetual mass death in a preventable pandemic to genocide. Future generations will see the Gaza genocide as an inflection point, propelling the growth of powerful currents in opposition to the capitalist social order.
Australian Military Refuses To Disclose Arms Deal With Israel To Protect Its 'Reputation' by Caitlin Johnstone -- Australia’s Defence Department has refused a Freedom of Information request about the details of an arms deal with Israel on the grounds that such information “could harm Australia’s international standing and reputation,” which suggests the details must be pretty damning. Equally as scandalous, this refusal was reportedly made in consultation with the Israeli government. In an article titled “Details of defence deal with Israel kept under wraps to protect Australia’s ‘reputation’,” the ABC’s Andrew Greene details how the Australian military snubbed a Freedom of Information request by the Australian Greens regarding a “Memorandum of Understanding” between Australia and Israel that was signed in 2017. “The document within the scope of this request contains information which, if released, could reasonably be expected to damage the international relations of the Commonwealth,” the Defence Department said in a letter explaining its rejection.“A summary provided by the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) to the Greens reveals that the Israeli government was also consulted about releasing the document before Defence ultimately rejected the FOI request,” the ABC reports.“The document contains information communicated to Australia by a foreign government and its officials under the expectation that it would not be disclosed,” a Defence official wrote in justification of its decision.Greens senator David Shoebridge objected, saying “There is no place for secret arms treaties and secret arms deals between countries, and there is certainly no place for giving other countries veto power over what the Australian government tells the public about our government’s defence and arms deals.”“Over 30,000 people have been killed by the State of Israel in Gaza in the past six months. In this context, the Australian public has a right to know about the military trade relationship with the State of Israel,” added Shoebridge.
Jamie Dimon Warns World Faces "Risks That Eclipse Anything Since World War II" --Perhaps the world's most influential banker - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon - warned the world in his annual letter to shareholders that while he expects US economic resilience (and higher inflation and interest rates), and is optimistic about transformational opportunities from AI, he worries geopolitical events including the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, as well as U.S. political polarization, might be creating an environment that “may very well be creating risks that could eclipse anything since World War II.”He begins with an ominous overview of the geopolitical chaos the world faces. Across the globe, 2023 was yet another year of significant challenges, from the terrible ongoing war and violence in the Middle East and Ukraine to mounting terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China. Almost all nations felt the effects last year of global economic uncertainty, including higher energy and food prices, inflation rates and volatile markets. While all these events and associated instability have serious ramifications on our company, colleagues, clients and countries where we do business, their consequences on the world at large — with the extreme suffering of the Ukrainian people, escalating tragedy in the Middle East and the potential restructuring of the global order — are far more important.As these events unfold, America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate. We need to find ways to put aside our differences and work in partnership with other Western nations in the name of democracy. During this time of great crises, uniting to protect our essential freedoms, including free enterprise, is paramount. We should remember that America, “conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal,” still remains a shining beacon of hope to citizens around the world. JPMorgan Chase, a company that historically has worked across borders and boundaries, will do its part to ensure that the global economy is safe and secure.In spite of the unsettling landscape, including last year’s regional bank turmoil, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and the markets currently expect a soft landing. It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect. Furthermore, there are downside risks to watch.Quantitative tightening is draining more than $900 billion in liquidity from the system annually — and we have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale. Plus the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost.These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious.And he warns that investors seem too complacent about these geopolitical risks when it comes to markets.Geopolitical and economic forces have an unpredictable timetable - they may unfold over months, or years, and are nearly impossible to put into a one-year forecast. They also have an unpredictable interplay: For example, the geopolitical situation may end up having virtually no effect on the world’s economy or it could potentially be its determinative factor.We have ongoing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and consider a wide range of outcomes to manage interest rate exposure and other business risks.Many key economic indicators today continue to be good and possibly improving, including inflation. But when looking ahead to tomorrow, conditions that will affect the future should be considered. For example, there seems to be a large number of persistent inflationary pressures, which may likely continue.All of the following factors appear to be inflationary:
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