oil prices end at a 24 week high on geopolitical threats to supply

US oil prices rose every day this week and ended at a new five month high ​o​n ​threats to supply from increasing hostilities in eastern Europe and the Mideast….after rising 3.2% to a 5 month high of $83.17 a barrel last week on stronger than expected US economic data and ​on expectations that OPEC would leave its production cuts in place, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery rallied almost 2% early Monday on expectations of increas​ed oil demand following the release of supportive economic news from the U.S. and China, but reversed part of those early gains to settle 54 cent higher at $83.71 a barrel as traders figured that stronger US manufacturing data would reduce the chances of a meaningful Fed rate cut​...oil prices continued on their upward trend on Tuesday amid a new wave of attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, and settled $1.44 cents higher at a new 5 month high of $85.15 a barrel after Iran vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike that killed two top generals at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, raising the specter of a broader war…oil prices edged higher early Wednesday after OPEC+ ministers affirmed the current supply cuts would continue and after the American Petroleum Institute reported across the board draws from oil & product supplies, then pulled back after the EIA reported a surprise crude inventory build, but still settled the session 28 cents higher at another 5 month high of $85.43 a barrel as trader concerns about supply disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East offset the bearish jump in U.S. crude oil inventories…oil prices fell on the EIA’s report of sluggish US fuel demand in early Asian trading Thursday, then moved mostly sideways for much of the US session as they slipped back below the $85 level as caution over US jobs data and interest rates weighed against OPEC’s output cuts and geopolitical tensions, but rallied late in the afternoon session to close $1.16 higher at another 5 month high of $86.59 a barrel on news that Israeli embassies across the U.S. had been placed on high alert due to increasing threats of an Iranian attack on Israeli diplomats….oil prices surged more than $1 a barrel in overseas markets on Friday as traders watched for a possible direct military conflict between Israel and Iran that could further tighten supplies, but pared those early gains to settle up 32 cents at a 24 week high of $86.91 a barrel as better than expected ​US jobs ​d​ata w​as bullish for oil demand but potentially bearish for interest rate cuts by the Fed later this year, and thus finished 4.5% higher on the week…

natural gas prices rose for the 2nd time in three weeks, or for the first time in four weeks, depending on whether one counts a switch to quoting a higher priced contract as a rise in prices, as Reuters and most of the media does, or not, as we would favor…after falling 2.7% to $1.763 per mmBTU while natural gas quotes were 6.3% higher on the switch from the April contract last week, the contract price for natural gas for May delivery opened nearly six cents higher on Monday and rose all morning, as analysts pointed to lower production as the impetus for the ​e​arly rally, but slipped in afternoon trading to settle 7.4 cents higher at a three-week high of $1.837 per mmBTU, as gas well output dropped and forecasts were lifted for demand next week…but natural gas prices opened 5 cents lower on Tuesday, knocked back down overnight by weakening LNG exports and weak heating demand, and fell to the day's low of $1.778 within minutes, before mounting a steady advance to settle 2.5 cents higher at another three week high of $1.862 per mmBTU, as producers continued to cut output, even as price gains were limited by lowered forecasts for demand this week…while natural gas prices opened 3 cents higher on Wednesday, prices soon backed off, as declines in production could no longer buoy a market with such saturated storage levels, and ​May natural gas settled 2.1 cents lower at $1.841 per mmBTU as the reported decline in output was less than traders had been expecting…the May contract then traded sideways near $1.835 leading up ​t​o the weekly storage report release on Thursday, then moved lower as the report hit the wire, as updated forecasts for reduced heating demand in the coming weeks added to the market’s existing bearish sentiment, and settled 6.7 cents lower at $1.774 per mmBTU, after the EIA’s storage report confirmed lofty supply levels…natural gas prices clawed back some of their losses in early trading Friday, as traders continued to mull a mix of restrained production, mild weather and plump inventories, but a serious rally could not be sustained and gas settled 1.1 cents higher at $1.785 per mmBTU, but still managed to eke out a 1.2% gain on the week…

The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending March 29th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 37 billion cubic feet to 2,259 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 422 billion cubic feet, or 23.0% above the 1837 billion cubic feet that were in storage on March 29th of last year, and 633 billion cubic feet, or 38.9% more than the five-year average of 1,626 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were typically in working storage as of the 29th of March over the most recent five years…the 37 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas working storage for the cited week was less than the 41 billion cubic foot withdrawal that the market was expecting, while it was more than the 29 billion cubic feet that were pulled from natural gas storage during the corresponding third week of March 2023, and was quite a bit more than the average 1 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same last week of March over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 29th indicated that ​after small decreases in our oil exports​ and ​in our refinery throughput, we again had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for 8th time in ten weeks and for the 16th time in the past 24 weeks, as even the oil supplies that the EIA could not account for we​re little changed….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 85,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,618,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 424,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 159,000 barrels per day to average 4,022,000 barrels per day, which when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,596,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 29th, 74,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 384,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a rounded total of 16,080,000 barrels per day during the March 29th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,897,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 29th, an average of 35,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a rounded average of 543,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US... So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending March 29th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production was 360,000 barrels per day less than what what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week…To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a +360,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed...Even so, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….(note there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week's average 543,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 459,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 84,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventeenth SPR increase in twenty-four weeks, following nearly continuous withdrawals over the prior 39 months... Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 2,272,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.9% more than the 6,214,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was also unchanged at 432,000 barrels per day and added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA's rounded national total as it did last week...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure matches that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and is also 35.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 88.6% of their capacity while processing those 15,897,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 29th, down from their 88.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, but ​a nearly normal operating rate for late March, after ​refineries recover​e​d from damage caused by the arctic cold that penetrated to the Gulf Coast in mid January... the 15,897,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.8% more than the 15,615,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending March 31st of 2023, and 0.3% more than the 15,849,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 29th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a below normal 86.4%..

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was quite a bit higher, increasing by 767,000 barrels per day to 9,980,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 29th, after our refineries' gasoline output had decreased by 435,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was 1.3% more than the 9,851,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending March 31st of last year, and 1.7% more than the gasoline production of 9,813,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending March 29th, 2019....on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 208,000 barrels per day to 4,606,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 124,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after six production increases in the past 7 weeks, our distillates output was 2.8% less than the 4,740,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 31st of 2023, and 5.4% less than the 4,870,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 29th, 2019…

Even with this week's increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the eighth time in nine weeks, decreasing by 4,256,000 barrels to 227,816,000 barrels during the week ending March 29th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,299,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users jumped by 521,000 barrels per day to 9,236,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 77,000 barrels per day to 863,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 34,000 barrels per day to 488,000 barrels per day.…​B​ut even after thirty-two gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.4% above last March 31st’s gasoline inventories of 222,575,000 barrels, but ​were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week's decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for 8th time in ten weeks, following eight consecutive prior increases, decreasing by 1,268,000 barrels to 116,069,000 barrels over the week ending March 29th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,185,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell again this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, fell by 533,000 barrels per day to 3,495,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates rose by 276,000 barrels per day to 1,396,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 61,000 barrels per day to 104,000 barrels per day...Even with 30 inventory decreases over the past fifty-two weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.7% above the 113,051,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 31st of 2023, but were about 7% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year...

Finally, after supply and demand metrics for US oil were little changed this​ past week, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 17th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 24th time in the past year, increasing by 3,210,000 barrels over the week, from 448,207,000 barrels on March 22nd to 451,417,000 barrels on March 29th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,165,000 barrels over the prior week... With this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 2% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were roughly 33% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the last weekend of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell in the wake of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this March 29th were still 3.9% less than the 469,952,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 31st of 2023, but 9.5% more than the 412,371,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on April 1st of 2022, while still 9.4% less than the 498,313,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on April 2nd of 2021, after refinery damage from winter storm Uri left even more crude oil remaining after 2020’s pandemic precautions had left a lot of oil unused…

This Week's Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes...note that since last week's rig count was released a day early, ahead of the Good Friday holiday, this week's report thus covers ​8 days...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 5th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (March 28th) and this week’s (April 5th) count, the third column shows last week’s March 28th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 7th of April, 2023...

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OH Landowners Appeal Jury Decision Allowing Pt Pleasant Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News - A royalty case that took nearly four years and hundreds of filings by both sides was finally decided by an Ohio jury in March (see OH Drillers Win Case Against Landowners re Drilling Deeper). The jury found in favor of several drillers (Ascent Resources, Gulfport Energy, Rice Energy) and against the rights owner (TERA II, LLC) in a case where the words “Point Pleasant” were not included in a lease agreement. The drillers drilled into the Point Pleasant, which sits on the border of the Utica, even though, technically, the lease did not allow it. The jury found the landowners did not “reserve their rights” to the Point Pleasant, given its location next to the Utica. The landowners are now appealing the jury decision.

New Leases Sought in Columbiana County, OH, for Oil Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News -Leasing activity is picking up once again in the northern part of the Ohio Utica shale play. Greg Carver, a trustee with Knox Township in Columbiana County, says he was recently contacted about leasing 15 acres he owns for new oil drilling. In late February, a consortium paid $1.6 million for mineral rights for 345 acres in Knox Township. Holy smokes! That’s $4,637 per acre! It sure sounds like Utica leasing is “back” — just not where you might think it would be.

Ohio Utica Quickly Becoming an Oil Play – “Could Go On for Decades” Marcellus Drilling News -- Oil production in the Ohio Utica hit a record 27.8 million barrels in 2023, up 41% from 2022, according to researchers at the Levin College of Public Affairs and Education at Cleveland State University. In December, eastern Ohio oil wells pumped 93,000 barrels of crude, up one-third from December 2022, according to federal data. Oil has been locked away in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale layer for millennia. Aubrey McClendon, co-founder and former CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the first to see the vision of freeing oil from the Utica. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale.

Williams Building New Compressor in Columbiana County, OH -- Marcellus Drilling News - We have a second big news story coming out of Columbiana County, OH, today. Pipeline giant Williams confirmed it plans to build a compressor station in Hanover Township (Columbiana County) to help push more natural gas in the northern part of the Utica play. “But wait, that’s an oil area, right?” Very good, young Padawan. It is an oily part of the play. However, when a well is drilled for oil, natural gas always comes out of the ground along with it. It used to be that drillers could just burn the “excess” methane, but not now with far stricter environmental regulations.

Company to Boost Natural Gas Capacity in Columbiana - Youngstown Business Journal - Williams Companies, a Fortune 500 corporation based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, plans to invest additional resources in Columbiana County to accelerate delivery of natural gas to its midstream network across the Utica shale basin, the company confirms. According to a spokesperson for Williams, the company “seeks to construct a compressor station in Hanover Township, an important part of the energy supply chain to bring clean, affordable natural gas to the area.” Cardinal Gas Services LLC, a division of The Williams Companies Inc., on March 6 purchased 78 acres in the township off of McCann Road for $1.8 million, data from the Columbiana County auditor’s office show. The site is proximate to where Houston-based Encino Energy has recently drilled horizontal wells that have registered strong output of both gas and oil. Compressor stations are vital to the region’s midstream development, as they essentially serve as boosters to natural gas traveling across pipelines. Extended distances, changes in elevation and friction often reduce the amount of pressure in pipelines. These stations use turbines, engines or motors to compress the natural gas and push it further along, either to another compressor or a processing plant. “This extension of our current infrastructure will bolster service to the northern section of the gathering system, meeting customer demands and growth to the Utica basin,” the Williams spokesperson said in a statement. Midstream infrastructure has long been a critical part of harvesting oil and gas from tight shale plays such as the Utica/Point Pleasant. Williams’ pipeline network connects these wells to processing plants such as its huge operation in Kensington, south of Hanoverton in Columbiana County. The Kensington plant chills natural gas and then separates dry gas from wet gas. The dry gas is then fed into an existing natural gas pipeline, while the wet gas is transported by an 18-inch line to a large fractionation plant to the south in Harrison County. The Harrison County plant then separates the wet gas into specific products, such as ethane, propane or butane. The Utica also produces a sizeable amount of liquid natural gas, which could be exported out of the United States worldwide, especially to markets in Europe.

Big Green Threatens New Lawsuit to Block Drilling in OH Wayne NF - Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released a new draft plan to allow shale drilling to finally begin on land in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest (see BLM Floats Draft Assessment for Drilling in OH’s Wayne Nat’l Forest). Even though a majority of the land and mineral rights in WNF are privately owned, the BLM and various lawsuits from foreign-backed Big Green groups have blocked drilling in WNF for the past 15+ years. It’s a TRAGEDY and horrific injustice against private landowners. With the BLM’s new plan, the usual radicalized groups are back to announce they are watching and plan to sue once again.

Barnesville approves oil and gas lease with Blue Baron - The Times Leader— Village Council recently voted in favor of entering a gas and oil lease with Blue Baron Energy for 177 acres of village-owned property within the corporation limits. Council had voted in January to advertise 177 acres of village-owned land for the purpose of leasing gas and oil rights and had received two bids in response. Those were opened and read in brief during the March 11 council meeting before being turned over to Village Solicitor Richard Myser so he could better scrutinize the offers. During the March 25 meeting, Myser broke down the offers, saying that Gulfport Appalachia had offered a five-year lease of all 177 acres with a $7,500 per acre signing bonus and 20% of gross royalties. Blue Baron had offered to lease 172 acres with a $6,750 per acre signing bonus and 20% gross royalties. Myser noted that he did not know the reason the Blue Barn lease was for only 172 acres. Myser said that besides the stated differences, the two leases were essentially the same regarding the addendums and other details. “One of the things I did not like on both of them is that they are targeting the Point Pleasant vein of oil and gas. Both of them had depth restriction language that was almost the same,” Myser added, going on to say he had contacted the land agents for both companies and neither was willing to change the depth restriction to only include the Marcellus and Utica shale layers. The Marcellus layer is generally the shallowest shale in Eastern Ohio, with the Utica layer beneath it and the Point Pleasant layer even deeper, but spanning a smaller area. Mayor Jake Hershberger said that as he understood it, Blue Baron had “closer laterals” in its plan, which would lead to greater production and royalty earnings. Hershberger also said that Blue Baron was “buying for Grenadier (Energy), which has leased a lot of land from Barnesville residents from Main Street south and from South Chestnut Street east, that whole corner, with the intent to drill.” Steve Penland of Western Land Management, who later said he was working with Blue Baron in the area, said that while he understood the difference between the signing bonuses seemed significant, he “would want to lease with a company that I knew was going to develop and drill the land properly to get the most return.” He later added that Blue Baron/Grenadier were “champing at the bit to develop this.” Penland also said he was unaware of the reason for the acreage discrepancy but that he was confident it could be worked out. Councilman Steve Hill questioned whether Gulfport had any intention of actually drilling, saying he believed the company was merely acquiring the rights to sell off later.

Flood Waters Get Close to Shuttered Austin Master Frack Waste --Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took legal action seeking to force Austin Master Services (AMS) in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), OH, to correct “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding the storage of oil and gas waste that he says threatens the Ohio River and Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply (see Ohio AG Sues Austin Master Services for Unsafe Storage of Wastewater). As the story began to unfold, we learned that AMS had stored at least 10,000 tons of fracking waste beyond its rating at the facility. Last weekend, the Ohio River, which is located 500 feet from the facility, reached flood stage and approached (but didn’t reach) the AMS facility.

Martins Ferry Mayor: Austin Master did not flood - The Times Leader — Flood water from the Ohio River did not infiltrate the Austin Master Services frack waste recycling facility on Thursday, according to Martins Ferry Mayor John Davies. City leaders and area residents have been concerned about whether flood water could be contaminated with waste, some of which is radioactive, if it were to reach the plant. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took legal action against Austin Master last week, citing “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding storage of oil and gas waste. His complaint, filed in Belmont County Common Pleas Court, states the waste is a threat to the Ohio River and to Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply. The complaint also states that the company is failing to store waste from fracking operations properly at its facility located at 801 N. First St. in Martins Ferry, which is approximately 500 feet from the Ohio River and about 1,000 feet from the city’s drinking water well field. During a city council meeting last week, Davies reported that the facility is “locked down” with security staff on site. “They took an excessive amount of debris in … at this point 10,000 tons too much, which is way past their permit, outside the original containment into the secondary containment,” Davies said of the facility. On Thursday, the Ohio River crested at nearly 42 feet at Wheeling in the wake of strong storms that brought more than 4 inches of rain to Belmont County earlier this week. Flood stage is 36 feet. Widespread flooding occurred on both sides of the Ohio River in communities such as Bridgeport, Bellaire and Powhatan Point. In Martins Ferry, water from the river reached railroad tracks along Ohio 7, and sections of First Street in the industrial area of the community were underwater Thursday. Davies said, however, that the river didn’t actually reach First Street; instead, he said, the flooding there was a result of storm drains backing up. Davies said he visited the Austin Master site “about 20 times” on Thursday. During one of those stops, he met with representatives of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, which is the agency that permitted the site to operate. According to Davies, although water could be seen surrounding the plant, no flood water was able to get inside the facility. Davies said he witnessed this himself and that he had also talked with the facility’s groundskeeper, who said no water had made it into the plant. According to Davies, for water to actually enter the plant, which is a former steel mill, the river would have to rise to a depth of 45 feet. Efforts to contact the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and Ohio Department of Natural Resources for additional information on the situation at Austin Master were unsuccessful. A media liaison for the OEPA did respond to an email with a query about The Times Leader’s deadline but did not provide any information. A call to the ODNR Division of Oil and Gas was directed to a voice mailbox that was full and no longer accepting messages.

Ohio ODNR Update: Top 5 Producers, Injection Well Primacy & More | Marcellus Drilling News -- The Ohio Oil & Gas Association (OOGA) held its annual meeting in March at the Hilton in Columbus, OH. While MDN was not there, an industry friend sent along a copy of the slide deck used by the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management. The ODNR’s “regulatory update” addressed a number of interesting issues, including the state’s ongoing application for “primacy” in permitting carbon dioxide injection wells, permitting and unitization (forced pooling), updates on rule changes for drilling and fracking, and several “top 5” lists for natural gas and oil producers in the Utica Shale. The first section of the ODNR update dealt with the state’s application for primacy in permitting new injection wells for storing carbon dioxide underground, called Class VI wells. The federal EPA has primacy unless and until an individual state applies for and (eventually) gains that authority. The application process is long and takes about five years. Ohio is about two years into that process. The ODNR gave an update on what it has done so far, and what still needs to take place before primacy is awarded to the state. The next section — on rules — doesn’t contain a lot in the way of detail. However, it’s obvious there are some coming changes (tweaks?) for both drilling and permitting of horizontal shale wells. Be on the lookout for those changes. Orphan well plugging is interesting. For all of the hoopla Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro made about plugging 132 orphaned wells in 2023 (see PA DEP Spending $44M This Yr, $76M Next Yr to Plug Orphaned Wells), Ohio, without any fanfare or chest-thumping (like Shapiro does), plugged 213 orphaned wells in 2023 (see slide 18). Ohio’s “marginal well plugging” program is like the orphaned well program, except marginal wells are producing wells (low amounts) and the operator is known. Ohio has a program with some money to plug these wells before they begin leaking. The final sections deal with stats for permitting and production. Very interesting stuff, including several top 5 lists. There’s a top 5 producers list by number of wells drilled — Encino takes the prize for the most wells drilled. For producers of natural gas, Ascent Resources takes the top prize. And for oil production, the top slot goes to Encino. As we shared yesterday in a post, Ohio is quickly becoming known more for oil production than for natural gas (see Ohio Utica Quickly Becoming an Oil Play – “Could Go On for Decades”).

4 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 25 – 31 - Marcellus Drilling News What’s below dismal? The new permits report for two weeks ago showed just five new permits, which we called “dismal” (see 5 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 18 – 24). Last week, for March 25 – 31, there were just four new permits issued. Technically, there were only twowas tardy in their new permits (both in Pennsylvania), but Ohio’s Dept. of Natural Resources update and recorded two new permits last week for permits issued the week before. We didn’t report them two weeks ago, so we will report them this week. In PA, there was one new permit each issued to Snyder Brothers (Armstrong County) and Greylock Energy (Potter County). OH issued two permits to Ascent Resources (both in Guernsey County). West Virginia issued no new permits for the second week in a row. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | GREYLOCK ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | POTTER COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS

Gas pipeline expansion project passing through Wetzel County reported in service Charleston Gazette - Facilities comprising a gas infrastructure expansion project spanning Wetzel County and parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania have been placed into service, a Mountain Valley Pipeline developer’s subsidiary has told federal regulators. Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project facilities were completed and placed into service on March 27, Equitrans L.P., subsidiary of Washington County, Pennsylvania-based Mountain Valley Pipeline lead developer Equitrans Midstream Corp., told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in a filing Monday.

FERC Wins Lawsuit Against Sierra Club re NFG's Northern Access Pipe Marcellus Drilling News - National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) and its pipeline subsidiary Empire Pipeline have worked on a plan to build the Northern Access Pipeline since 2016. Northern Access is a 97-mile project from McKean County in Pennsylvania into and through Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Erie counties in New York that will flow Marcellus gas into New York State. The project was repeatedly delayed by the radicals of the Andrew Cuomo (now Kathy Hochul) administrations in NY. NFG still wants to build the project but needs more time. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) gave NFG an extra 35 months to get the project done in a decision in June 2022. The Sierra Club challenged FERC’s time extension. On Friday the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) rejected the Clubbers and said FERC properly extended the time to build the project.

NatGas Spot Prices in M-U Moving Higher on Lower Production | Marcellus Drilling News While you wouldn’t know it from looking at the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price, the cuts in production from Marcellus/Utica producers, including Chesapeake Energy, ETQ, Antero Resources, Coterra Energy, CNX Resources, and others, IS having an effect on prices — on the spot prices of physically-traded natural gas in the M-U region. Over the past eight weeks, gas production from the Marcellus and Utica shale has fallen sharply.

US natgas prices jump 4% to 3-week high on strong demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a three-week high on Monday as output dropped and forecasts were lifted for demand next week. Price gains were limited by lowered demand forecasts for this week forecasts for mild weather through mid-April, ample amounts of gas in storage and reduced amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing repairs at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $1.837 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest close since March 6. Gas prices have been mostly depressed for months - falling to an intraday low of $1.481 per mmBtu on March 26, their lowest since June 2020. After a mild winter with record output, utility gas stockpiles are about 41% above normal levels for this time of year. Low prices should boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024 but cut production for the first time since COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest outlook. Output was already down by around 6% over the past month as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities. In the spot market, mild weather and ample hydro and other renewable power supplies in the U.S. West cut electricity prices in Arizona to record lows. Next-day power fell to negative $12 per megawatt hour at the Palo Verde hub in Arizona, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. That compares with prior all-time lows of negative $9 on March 27 and negative $8 on March 25. Negative prices mean there is too much power in a region due to low demand and/or transmission constraints, and are used to encourage power generators to shut plants or pay to keep them running. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March from 104.8 bcfd in February. In December, 2023 it hit a monthly record high of 105.6 bcfd. On Monday, daily output was on track to drop about 3.9 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 96.5 bcfd, which would be the biggest daily decline since mid-January when extreme cold froze oil and gas wells. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is usually revised over the next few days, especially first-of-the-month preliminary data. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 16, except for some cold days from April 3-6. With seasonally warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 104.0 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.1 bcfd in March, down from 13.7 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.

DC Circuit Sides with FERC in Natural Gas Pipeline, LNG Project Extensions - U.S. regulators were well within their rights to grant extensions to natural gas projects, a federal appeals court found. FERC’s decision to extend the construction deadlines for projects being undertaken by National Fuel Gas Supply Co. and Cheniere Energy Inc. “were not arbitrary and capricious,” the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled on March 29. “To the contrary, the decisions were reasonable and adequately supported by the record evidence,” the decision stated.

U.S. Public Power Utilities Opting for Natural Gas to Replace Coal-Fired Generation - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) said it would add natural gas-fired generation fueled by a potential pipeline expansion proposed by Enbridge Inc.’s East Tennessee Natural Gas LLC (ETNG) as it retires a large segment of coal generation. TVA, which has floated the proposal of retiring the Kingston Fossil Plant (KIF) since its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, said by 2027 it would be shuttering all nine units at the coal-fired facility in eastern Tennessee. In addition to solar and battery storage additions, about 1,500 MW of natural gas-fired capacity from one combined-cycle plant and 16 dual-fuel aeroderivative combustion turbines (aero CT) would replace the retired generation. Aero CTs are able to ramp up faster than conventional simple-cycle CTs as they draw air...

Plaquemines LNG Pipeline Project Cleared to Start Service - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has cleared Enbridge Inc. subsidiary Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) to start service on the Venice Extension pipeline project that would serve the Plaquemines LNG export facility under construction in Louisiana. The Venice Extension would expand the Tetco system with a new three-mile, 36-inch diameter pipeline in Louisiana to move nearly 1.3 Bcf/d to the Plaquemines facility. Enbridge is also modifying two existing compressor stations in Iberville and Lafourche Parishes, where it will build two new compressor stations in addition to another new compressor facility in Pointe Coupee Parish.

US was world’s largest liquified natural gas exporter last year --The U.S. was the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2023, according to federal data released Monday. U.S. exports of the fossil fuel last year surpassed those of major exporters Qatar and Australia, and it amounted to 12 percent more American gas shipped than in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said.The increase comes as Europe, the primary customer for U.S. gas exports, is looking to move away from another major supplier, Russia, in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.It also comes as the Biden administration is facing increasing political pressure — particularly from climate activists — over its natural gas exports.In response to objections to the nation’s growing gas exports, the administration paused approvals for some new natural gas export projects earlier this year — though that pause does not impact existing exports or projects that are already under construction. Experts have also debated the environmental impacts of U.S. natural gas exports, given that the fuel does contribute to climate change, but displaces even-dirtier coal in some nations. High oil and gas production numbers have presented a political tightrope for the administration — as it seeks to show progressive and mainstream Democrats that it is taking climate action, while also combatting right-wing attacks over not being friendly-enough to fossil fuels. The U.S. energy statistics agency said that the increase in U.S. exports came in response to strong European demand and high international prices. The return of Texas’s Freeport LNG plant in 2023 after a 2022 fire also bolstered the nation’s export numbers. U.S. LNG export levels set records in November and December.

DOE Insists LNG Pause Could End Within One Year in Rehearing Denials - Natural gas trade associations and LNG project developers could be forced to rely on the courts or Congress for a swift end to the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) pause on new export authorizations after the agency closed the door on revisiting its decision. At the end of March, DOE issued two denials of requests for rehearing on its liquefied natural gas export authorization pause from a coalition of energy groups spearheaded by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Commonwealth LNG LLC. In its denial letters, DOE’s counsel did not provide concrete dates for its policy review, but narrowed the possible timeframe for a conclusion to at least before March 2025.

E&Ps Urge Expanding Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Leasing, Continuing Wind Sales - Natural gas and oil lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) should continue, but there’s room for wind development, as well as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), according to exploration and production (E&P) companies. Both supporters and opponents of federal leasing in the offshore made their comments on the national leasing program, published late last month, following a request by the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). The Biden administration’s 2024-2029 National Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program was finalized last year. It has scheduled one auction each for 2025, 2027 and 2029. BOEM is using Area Identification, or Area ID, to develop a recommendation for the areas when considering leasing

Side Effect of US Oil & Gas Boom: Record Ethane Production & Exports | US production of ethane – one of the natural-gas liquids that are in the hydrocarbon mix at oil and gas wells – rose 9% in 2023 to a record 2.6 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the EIA.The record ethane production was a result of the boom in natural gas production that has made the US the largest natural gas producer in the world, and in 2023, also the largest LNG exporter in the world. Natural gas production in the US is in part a result of the boom in fracking for oil, that has turned the US into the largest crude oil producer in the world, with record production and exports of crude oil and petroleum products. These oil wells also produce profuse amounts of natural gas and natural gas liquids, including Ethane.Over 60% of the ethane is produced in the Permian, which spans part of West Texas and New Mexico and is the most prolific oil field in the US. Natural gas processing plants dehydrate the raw natural gas, remove impurities, and then separate ethane and other natural gas liquids, such as propane, butanes, and pentanes, from the gas (chart via the EIA): Ethane is used almost exclusively as feedstock by the petrochemical industry. Consumption of ethane by the huge US petrochemical industry rose 5% to 2.1 million b/d in 2023. The EIA reported:“Two new petrochemical crackers, located in Port Arthur, Texas, and in Monaca, Pennsylvania, ramped up operations in 2023 after coming on line in late 2022. Ethane consumption in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where most crackers are located, increased 4% from 2022 to 2.0 million b/d. Ethane consumption on the East Coast (PADD 1) more than doubled, averaging 38,000 b/d in 2023, a 22,000 b/d increase from 2022.”The rest of the ethane was exported. Exports of ethane increased by 13% to a record 471,000 b/d in 2023. About 45% of those exports went to China, 16% went to India, 14% to Canada, and 10% to Norway (chart via the EIA):The EIA credited the growth in exports to growth in demand by the global petrochemical sector, rising tanker capacity, and low prices in the US for ethane.The boom in natural gas production since 2007 has caused prices of natural gas to collapse in the US. Natural gas futures currently trade at $1.83 per million Btu (MMBtu). From 2000 through 2008, natural gas ranged from $2 to $15 per MMBtu, much of the time above $6 per MMBtu.US production is now doing the same thing to ethane prices. But when ethane prices are low relative to natural gas prices, operators of natural gas processing plants can leave more ethane in the natural gas stream to be sold in natural gas markets. So there’s another outlet for some of the ethane, in theory. But natural gas prices are low too.Ethane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, the main pricing hub for ethane (chart via the EIA):

US strategic petroleum reserve replenishment could be tempered by oil price (Reuters) - The U.S. is replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after selling a record amount of oil from the stockpile in 2022 and as one of the stockpile's sites winds down maintenance, but the pace could be tempered by rising crude prices. The Department of Energy said late on Thursday it is offering solicitations for 3 million barrels of domestically-produced crude oil, for the Bayou Choctaw, Louisiana site, which had been undergoing maintenance. The oil, if purchased, is slated to be delivered to the SPR site in August and September. In 2022, the administration of President Joe Biden announced a sale of 180 million barrels of oil over six months from the reserve, thelargest ever SPR sale, in an attempt to lower gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The DOE also conducted a sale of 38 million barrels in 2022 that had been mandated by Congress.The administration says it sold the 180 million barrels at an average of about $95 a barrel. It wants to buy back oil at $79 a barrel or less. The West Texas Intermediate oil price of about $80.70 a barrel on Friday could slow future purchases if it stays at that level or rises. The price has mostly risen in recent days after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and on an International Energy Agency outlook that signaled tighter supply.The administration has so far bought back about 29.61 million barrels of domestically-produced crude oil, since the 2022 sales, it says. The DOE says it has also sped up the return of nearly 4 million barrels to the SPR from loans to oil companies.The pace of the buybacks has been slowed by planned maintenance at two of the four SPR sites, department officials have said. Quick buybacks of much larger volumes could also risk pushing up oil and gasoline prices ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, analysts have said. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Feb. 21 the U.S. was being careful not to do anything to remove supply from the market when prices might be high. The reserve currently holds 361.6 million barrels, nearly 60% of which is sour crude, or relatively high sulfur oil which many U.S. refineries are engineered to process. The most oil it ever held was nearly 727 million barrels in 2009.The sales in 2022 sank the SPR to the lowest level in about 40 years. That angered some Republicans who accused the Democratic administration of leaving the U.S. with a thin supply buffer to respond to a future crisis. But the administration says it has a three-pronged strategy to return oil to the reserve. That includes buying back oil, the return of oil loaned from the SPR to companies, and cancelling congressionally mandated sales of 140 million barrels of SPR oil through 2027. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers had voted for those sales to pay for government programs.

Biden Halts Attempts To Refill SPR As Oil Price Soars More than a year ago, we laughed at the thought that the Biden admin would actually follow through with its promise to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil fell below $80, which in turn prompted area idiots to really rub it in our face when WTI tumbled as low as $73. In retrospect we were, of course, right (and area idiots will continue failing upward until finally someone gives them the old rugpull) because even though WTI did indeed spend a few months below $80 before exploding back up again, this is how much oil the Biden admin purchased to refill the SPR after it intentionally drained it in 2022 to limit the surge in gas prices. Can't see it? It's highlighted in the yellow circle (yeah, no wonder you can't see it). And now that WTI is back to $86 and the Biden admin has completely missed its window to add some more oil to the SPR besides the token several hundred barrels here and there, the Biden administration has capitulated and today announced it won’t move forward with its latest plans to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid rising prices.According to Bloomberg, Biden's Energy Department said it was “keeping the taxpayer’s interest at the forefront” in its decision not to purchase as many as 3 million barrels of oil for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve site in Louisiana. The plan for the barrels to be delivered in August and September had been announced in mid-March. It has now been canceled meaning that the already dismal rate of SPR refill will now flatline for the foreseeable future, at least until the NBER admits the US is in a recession. “We will not award the current solicitations for the Bayou Choctaw SPR site and will solicit available capacity as market conditions allow,” the department said. “We will continue to monitor market dynamics.”The capitulation follows a surge in crude prices, with WTI on Tuesday rising above $86 a barrel for the first time since October. The Biden administration has a target to buy oil at $79 or lower to refill the reserve, though spent an average of about $81 a barrel in its latest purchase of 2.8 million barrels late last month.The Energy Department has been slowly refilling the emergency oil supply after it reached a 40-year-low following the administration’s unprecedented drawdown of a record 180 million barrels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It currently holds about 363 million barrels, according to Energy Department data, down from almost 600 million at the start of 2022.And just like that anyone hoping that Biden would add more than a few drops to the SPR can stop holding their breath: “Domestic crude prices are likely to remain too high for the remainder of the year for DOE to resume its refilling program,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to President George W. Bush.

Washington Department of Ecology and Coast Guard respond to sunken vessel in Lake Union - The Coast Guard and Washington Department of Ecology continue their response Monday to a sunken tugboat in Lake Union in Seattle, Washington. The vessel, a tugboat converted into a residence, partially sank Saturday afternoon. Red-dyed diesel escaped from the vessel into Lake Union. There were reportedly no people aboard the vessel at the time of the sinking. Responders from the City of Seattle and the Washington Department of Ecology placed boom around the vessel to contain the spill. A response contractor was hired to clean up the spill and salvage the vessel. Contractors have pumped off 400 gallons of oily water from the vessel’s tanks and cabin and removed fuel from inside the boom surrounding the vessel as well. Professional wildlife response efforts are underway. Responders with Focus Wildlife have found several oiled birds and are taking steps to recover those animals for treatment. Responders are on scene assessing further risk to animals in the area. If you see oiled wildlife, report it at 1-800-22BIRDS. Do not to attempt to rescue oiled birds or other wildlife on your own. Oil spill responders are investigating sheens reported in other parts of Lake Union. The cause of the incident is under investigation.

Chevron owns this city’s news site. Many stories aren’t told. -Open flames shot upward from four smokestacks at the Chevron refinery on the western edge of Richmond, Calif. Soon, black smoke blanketed the sky.News spread quickly that day last November, but by word of mouth, says Denny Khamphanthong, a 29-year-old Richmond resident. "We don't know the full story, but we know that you shouldn't breathe in the air or be outside for that matter," Khamphanthong says now. "It would be nice to have an actual news outlet that would actually go out there and figure it out themselves."The city's primary local news source, The Richmond Standard, didn't cover the flare. Nor had it reported on a 2021 Chevron refinery pipeline rupture that dumped nearly 800 gallons of diesel fuel into San Francisco Bay.Chevron is the city's largest employer, largest taxpayer and largest polluter. Yet when it comes to writing about Chevron, The Richmond Standard consistently toes the company line.And there's a reason for that: Chevron owns The Richmond Standard."If you look at Chevron's website and you look at The Richmond Standard, a lot of the information is copy and paste," says Katt Ramos, a local climate activist. "They present a very skewed viewpoint that is bought and paid for by Chevron."

Diesel spill reported at drilling rig in Dunn County — Enerplus Resources recently notified state agencies of a diesel spill caused by a drilling rig in Dunn County.The incident happened about 18 miles northwest of Killdeer on March 29. Enerplus estimates approximately 187 barrels (7,854 gallons) of diesel were released under the rig and remained on the well pad.The spilled diesel is in the process of being collected and removed. Personnel from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality will inspect the site and monitor the investigation and remediation.Federal and state laws require that operators report the spillage of any materials that may pollute water, air or soil.

187 barrels of oil spilled in North Dakota — Authorities in North Dakota are cleaning up after a diesel spill caused by a drilling rig in Dunn County.The company ener-plus resources says approximately 187 barrels of diesel were released under the rig and remained on the well pad. The spilled diesel is in the process of being collected and removed.State authorities will inspect and monitor the site throughout the cleanup and investigation.

Major oil spills in United States since 1969 (Reuters) - Energy major Chevron has agreed to pay $13.1 million in settlement agreements with two California state agencies for its oil spills in 2019, which saw at least 800,000 gallons of oil and water leak into a creek bed in Kern County.The state of California has seen multiple oil spills starting from a devastating oil well blowout in Santa Barbara in 1969 to Amplify Energy's offshore spill in 2021.Here are some of the major oil spills in the U.S. since 1969:

• Keystone Pipeline, Kansas – 2022 - A progressive fatigue crack, which originated during the construction of TC Energy's (TRP.TO), opens new tab Keystone pipeline, caused a 14,000-barrel oil spill in rural Kansas. It was the biggest U.S. oil spill in nine years.
• North Dakota – 2013 - Tesoro Logistics LP's pipeline spilled more than 20,000 barrels of crude oil into a wheat field in North Dakota.
• Gulf of Mexico – 2010 - An explosion occurred on the BP operated Deepwater Horizon oil well drilling platform on April 20, killing 11 workers and releasing 134 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.
• Port Arthur, Texas – 2010 - An oil tanker Eagle Otome, chartered by Exxon Mobil, carrying crude to a refinery, was struck by a barge tow traveling in the opposite direction, spilling an estimated 11,000 barrels (462,000 gallons) of sour Mexican oil into the water.
• Kalamzoo River, Michigan – 2010 - A failure of pipeline operator Enbridge's Line 6B near Marshall, Michigan, spilled some 20,000 barrels of oil into a branch of the Kalamazoo River.
• New Orleans, Louisiana – 2005 - Hurricane Katrina caused 190,000 barrels of oil spills along the Louisiana coastline from various sources, including pipelines, storage tanks and industrial plants.
• Port Sulphur, Louisiana – 2000 - The tanker Westchester lost power and ran aground, leaking about 13,500 barrels of crude oil into the Mississippi River about 60 miles south of New Orleans. The spill was then the largest in U.S. waters since Exxon Valdez.
• Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island – 1996 -The tank barge North Cape and tug Scandia grounded on Moonstone Beach after the tug caught fire in its engine room, spilling almost 20,000 barrels of home heating oil through the Block Island Sound. The spill killed more than 10 million lobsters and prompted a ban on fishing in the area for several months.
• Galveston, Texas – 1990 - About 121,000 barrels of oil were spilled 60 miles off Galveston after an explosion at the 886-foot Mega Borg and subsequent fire in the pump room.
• Prince William Sound, Alaska – 1989 - The oil tanker Exxon Valdez, owned by Exxon Shipping, struck the Bligh Reef in Alaska and spilled more than 11 million gallons of crude oil, spreading over 3,000 square miles.

U.S. Natural Gas Flows to Mexico Seen Hitting New Records This Summer - Amid a historic natural gas price downturn and uncertainty around the future of LNG exports, the Mexico market remains a relative bright spot for bulls. Pipeline flows of U.S. natural gas to Mexico have averaged 6.09 Bcf/d year-to-date through March 27, up 552 MMcf/d versus the same period last year, according to Wood Mackenzie data. For full-year 2024, Mexico’s average pipeline imports are set to grow by more than 300 MMcf/d year/year, potentially crossing the 6.5 Bcf/d line, according to the firm’s latest projections.

Explainer: Shell appeals against Dutch court's landmark climate ruling (Reuters) - A Dutch court on Tuesday heard Shell's appeal against a landmark climate ruling which ordered it to drastically deepen planned greenhouse gas emission cuts. The district court in The Hague ordered Shell in 2021 to cut its absolute carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. The reduction includes emissions from the use of fuels sold to customers, which account for around 95% of Shell's emissions. The court will hear from Shell and Friends of the Earth Netherlands, which brought the case, for four days this month. A verdict is expected in the second half of the year. A further appeal to the country's Supreme Court is widely expected regardless of the outcome of this appeal. Shell said implementing the ruling would force it to shrink its business and would simply lead customers to shift to other suppliers of fuel. Shell aims to reduce the carbon intensity of products it sells by 15-20% by 2030 from a 2016 baseline after watering down the target in March. Shell has an "ambition" to reduce customer emissions from the use of its oil products by 15-20% by 2030 compared with 2021. Shell also aims to become a "net zero" emissions company by 2050. The reduction relates to Shell's global operations and is not limited to the Netherlands, the court ruling said.

Australian LNG Exports Climb Higher Despite Supply Headwinds - Australian LNG exports have ticked upward so far this year, driven in large part by higher volumes from the country’s east coast facilities. Exports reached 21.5 million tons (Mt) through March 27, up from 20.6 Mt over the same time last year, according to Kpler. The uptick came from the Australia Pacific, Gladstone (GLNG) and Queensland Curtis liquefied natural gas facilities. “Annual numbers show intervention in the east coast gas market last year took a toll on reserves-poor GLNG, which experienced a decline in exports from 6.1 Mt in 2022 to 5.7 Mt in 2023,” according to Australia-based consulting firm Energy Quest. East coast LNG exports operated at an average of 94% of nameplate capacity last year. Shipments were steady in 2023 at 23.3 Mt despite increased

Asian LNG Imports on the Rise as Restocking Season Gets Underway – LNG Recap - Asia is attracting more LNG cargoes as spot prices remain low and Europe enters the injection season with a plump storage cushion. While Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports dropped 20% to 9.05 million tons (Mt) last month, Asia’s jumped 12% to 24.3 Mt, according to Kpler data. China, Japan and South Korea led the region’s imports during March. Strong storage inventories, lackluster demand and mild weather have held global natural gas prices down most of the year. The European market was closed Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday, but Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices have held near $9/MMBtu amid competition with Asia for supplies. However, more LNG is expected to land in Asia in the coming weeks given European storage capacity that is 59% full, or well above normal for this time of year...

Gazprom Tightens Grip on Sakhalin 2 LNG Project by Purchasing Shell’s Stake - Russia’s Gazprom PJSC will reportedly increase its ownership of Sakhalin 2 LNG project, placing more of the country’s export capacity under state-owned company’s control as sanctions continue to pressure its oil and pipeline gas revenues. According to the Russian government, a 27.5% stake valued at $1.6 billion is to be sold to Gazprom, increasing its interest in the liquefied natural gas project to 78%. The share, previously owned by Shell plc, was expected to go to Russia’s largest LNG producer, privately held Novatek PJSC. A Shell spokesperson told Reuters that the producer “reserves all its legal rights” from the stake. However, Shell had no comment about Russia’s actions. Shell last year wrote down its investment in the 11.5 million metric tons/year facility...

Exclusive: Russia's Arctic LNG 2 suspends gas liquefaction amid sanctions, lack of tankers, sources say (Reuters) - Novatek, Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has suspended production at its Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions and a shortage of gas tankers, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.The project had been hoping to start commercial deliveries in the first quarter of this year. But plans were complicated last year when it was included in Western sanctions over Russia's conflict in Ukraine, prompting foreign shareholders to freeze participation and Novatek to issue a force majeure.The decision to suspend converting natural gas to LNG is a blow to Russia's goal to capture a fifth of the global LNG market by 2030-2035. It is currently the world's fourth-largest LNG producer with annual exports of 32.6 million metric tons.Novatek, which started tentative LNG production at the first of the plant's planned three trains in December, did not reply to a request for comment."Train one will remain shut until at least the end of June," one of the sources told Reuters, adding that construction activities for the project were still ongoing.The other two trains are due to be delivered to the site by sea in future from the port of Murmansk. The three trains are together targeted to produce 19.8 million metric tons per year of LNG and 1.6 million tons per year of stable gas condensate.The sources said the main problem was a lack of specialist tankers capable of transporting LNG - which is cooled to minus 163 degrees Celsius (minus 261.4 Fahrenheit) - and cutting through thick sea ice.Separately, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Tuesday that natural gas output at the project had fallen sharply to 83 million cubic metres (mcm) in February due to a delay in the start of LNG shipments.The sources said production had been 425 mcm in December and 250 mcm in January.Russia faces challenges in getting specialist gas tankers.According to Novatek, 15 Arc7 ice-class tankers, able to cut through 2-metre thick ice, will be built at Russia's Zvezda shipyard for Arctic LNG 2. Six more Arc7 tankers were due to be built by Hanwha Ocean, formerly Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, including three for Russia's leading tanker group Sovcomflot (and three for Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.However, the three tankers ordered by Sovcomflot were cancelled due to the sanctions against Russia, Hanwha said last year in regulatory filings.Ice-class tankers usually have double hulls - strengthened structures to withstand the pressure of ice - and reinforced propellers.So far, only three suitable gas tankers have been built for Arctic LNG 2, according to public information: the Alexei Kosygin, Pyotr Stolypin and Sergei Witte vessels.

Iran Renews Iraq Gas Contract Amid Production Uncertainty Despite a persistent and alarming deficit in its natural gas production, Iran recently chose to renew gas export contracts with Iraq – a decision that can have severe consequences for its own energy needs. While Iran boasts having the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, its production capacity has consistently fallen short of meeting escalating demand in recent years, especially during peak periods such as winter. Historically, Iran has played a pivotal role in providing vital natural gas to fulfill Iraq's energy requirements, particularly for powering electricity generation. Yet, a notable decrease in the supply of natural gas from Iran has exacerbated Iraq’s own energy crisis – with the country’s electricity output significantly lagging behind its increasing demand currently at 35 gigawatts. While several multibillion-dollar contracts were signed with power giants by Iraq since 2008, efforts to address the crisis have largely failed, with corruption, mismanagement, and political interference leading to significant losses in investment. Siemens and American General Electric (GE) are positioned to dominate the sector, leveraging partnerships with Iraqi interests.The South Pars field – the world's largest natural gas field – is crucial for Iran's economy as it provides a substantial portion of the country's natural gas production.The field, located in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Qatar, is also exposing Iranian officials’ underperformance in developing it in contrast to Qatar Petroleum. Qatar has been extracting gas from South Pars since 1990, a decade ahead of Iran, and has produced nearly double the amount of gas from the field.Meanwhile, based on its own estimates, Iran is expected to elevate its numbers over the next five years – from 1.07 billion cubic meters per day to 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm). However, such official claims often remain unrealized due to financial and technological constraints.

oil imports: India's March Russian oil imports rose over 7% from Feb, trade flows show - India's Russian oil imports rose by more than 7% in March from February as refiners snapped up cheaper oil, data from trade flow tracking agencies Kpler and LSEG shows. Refiners in India have been gorging on Russian oil since the West shunned purchases form Moscow and imposed sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The data shows that Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, cut monthly purchases from Saudi Arabia in March and raised those from Iraq, the data showed.

Indian Coast Guard strengthens presence in Gujarat -- The Indian Coast Guard (ICG) has strategically based additional hovercraft at Jakhau, close to the Indo-Pakistan maritime frontier and a capital ship at Vadinar in the Gulf of Kutch, according to an official statement issued on Monday. ICGS Samudra Pavak, a specialised Marine Pollution Control Vessel, will now operate from the new Coast Guard Jetty at Vadinar, which was recently inaugurated on March 1 by Minister of State for Defence Ajay Bhatt, it said. The Gulf of Kutch is a fast-developing area, particularly in the oil and port sectors, where 70 per cent of the country's oil is being handled through the facilities available in the region. The Gulf also has a rich biodiversity, living resources, fisheries, coral reefs and mangrove vegetation, which are highly vulnerable in case of an oil spill from surrounding oil industries, and thus the positioning of the specialist vessel by ICG will enhance its capacity to mitigate environmental threats, the statement said. The dedicated Marine Pollution Response Unit was also raised in 2018 at Vadinar to provide professional and quick responses to emerging situations and, most importantly, to be a hub of coordination for all stakeholders in the region, it added. The statement further added that the 95-metre-long ship Samudra Pavak is equipped with advanced pollution response and control equipment to mitigate oil spills. It can perform activities such as containing and recovering oil in cases of oil pollution at sea. The ship is also equipped with two rigid sweeping arms, enabling the containment of spilled oil in motion at sea as well. The ship is being commanded by DIG Aniket Singh, along with 19 officers and approximately 120 enrolled personnel, it added.

Rayong fishing groups sue Star Petroleum over oil spill devastation -A class action lawsuit has been initiated by 14 individuals from Rayong, representing fishing groups and local businesses.They are suing Star Petroleum Refining Company (SPRC), the owner of an underwater oil pipeline that ruptured in 2022, claiming that the subsequent major oil spill has devastated their livelihoods.These individuals are part of a local fishing community known as Pak Nam, Ban Rao, or Pak Nam, Our Home, which encompasses small-scale fishermen and fishery workers in the area. The class action was lodged in the Civil Court on Thursday, assisted by Somchai Armeen, the chairman of a sub-panel on environmental cases at the Lawyers Council of Thailand. The plaintiffs are seeking 4.2 million baht in compensation from SPRC. On January 25, 2022, an estimated 50,000 litres of crude oil leaked into the Gulf of Thailand and onto the beaches of Rayong due to the pipeline rupture. The province’s Fisheries Office reports that this disaster affected at least 2,600 fishermen. Not only were fish stocks in the area severely impacted, but the remaining catches were unsellable due to the oil contamination.The Fisheries Office further stated that, since the spill, local fishermen have been unable to make a living. Their regular catches have significantly dwindled from their usual fishing grounds off the Rayong coast. Many have been compelled to venture further out to sea or halt their fishing activities entirely.The president of the Pak Nam Ban Rao fishing community, Lamom Boonyong, shared that the lawsuit does not solely target the company responsible for the oil spill. Five other parties are also being sued for breaching the environment protection law.The plaintiffs represent various groups with a total of over 800 members. A ruling in their favour could set a groundbreaking precedent, enabling the remaining members to seek compensation. This could potentially cost the company around 240 million baht, reported Bangkok Post.

Giant Kazakh oil field operator denies spill reports - (Reuters) - The operator of Kazakhstan's giant offshore Kashagan oilfield denied reports of an oil spill near the field and said on Tuesday its facilities were working normally. Globus, an ecological organisation in the Central Asian nation, said earlier on Tuesday that satellite imagery had captured a large oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kashagan. Globus director Galina Chernova posted on Facebook that a slick of around 7 square km (2.7 square miles) had formed, citing images from Sentinel-1A, a European satellite. But NCOC, largely owned by Western oil majors which operate the field, said those satellite images showed some different, natural phenomenon, and subsequent shots of the same location showed nothing unusual. The company said it had studied the area and found no irregularities. Kashagan, one of Kazakhstan's largest oil fields, is being developed by the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) consortium, which includes Shell, Eni, TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil. The ecology department of Kazakhstan's Atyrau region, which borders the Caspian, has also said it would conduct a visual inspection and take samples at the oil production site.

Iran Concerned As Spill In Kazakhstan Threatens Caspian Sea Ecosystem - A possible oil spill in Kazakhstan's Kashagan Oilfield has sparked concern in Iran with pollution risks to the country's Caspian Sea coast. Globus, an environmental organization in Kazakhstan, reported that satellite imagery had detected a significant oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea vicinity of Kashagan. Galina Chernova, director of Globus, shared on Facebook that images from the European satellite Sentinel-1A depicted a slick spanning approximately 7 square kilometers (2.7 square miles). However, North Caspian Operating Company, primarily owned by Western oil majors such as Shell and Exxon Mobil, overseeing the Kashagan field, dismissed the claims, attributing the satellite images to a different, natural phenomenon. The oil pollution in the Caspian Sea poses a significant threat to Iran's environment and economy. As one of the Caspian littoral states, Iran is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of oil spills and pollution in the region. The spills not only endanger marine life and ecosystems but also impact Iran's fishing industry, which relies heavily on the health of the Caspian Sea. The contamination can also affect coastal communities and pose health risks to residents who rely on the sea for their livelihoods. Iran stands as the sole Caspian Sea littoral state refraining from oil and gas extraction activities, contrasting with Russia, Azerbaijan, and other nations which have collectively invested over $160 billion in Caspian fields. In 2024, all littoral states, with the exception of Iran, are striving to boost oil and gas production from the fields. Their combined output from the fields amounted to over 1.2 million barrels per day of oil and 50 billion cubic meters per year of gas in 2023.

One killed, 14 injured as explosion hits petroleum company convoy -- A staff member of Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) was killed and 14 others injured on Saturday after a powerful blast struck the convoy of its survey team visiting an oil exploration site in Balochistan’s Harnai district, confirmed a senior local administration official. MPCL, the largest petroleum company in Pakistan, was granted a license in 2001 by the central government to explore oil and gas reservoirs across the country. Earlier this year in February, it announced the discovery of highly promising hydrocarbons in Balochistan’s Kohlu district, adjacent to the Harnai district. The area has been a hotbed for Baloch separatists who have frequently targeted security forces and laborers working on strategic projects in the region. Speaking to an international news outlet Arab News, the deputy commissioner of the area, Ali Javed Domki, said the survey staff of MPCL was targeted in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion while conducting a survey near the mountainous areas of the Harnai district. “One employee of the company was killed and 14 injured when their vehicle was hit by a powerful explosion,” he continued. “[The paramilitary] Levis teams rushed to the spot after the blast and shifted the injured to Quetta for better medical care.”

OPEC oil output falls in March, led by Iraq - Reuters survey – (Reuters) – OPEC oil output fell last month, a Reuters survey found on Monday, reflecting lower exports from Iraq and Nigeria against a backdrop of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by some members agreed with the wider OPEC+ alliance. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down 50,000 bpd from February, the survey, based on shipping data and information from industry sources, found. Several members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia and other allies, made new cuts in January to counter economic weakness and increased supply outside the group. Producers agreed last month to keep them in place until the end of June. An OPEC+ panel of key ministers meets on Wednesday to review the market and members’ production, and is not expected to recommend any policy changes ahead of the group’s next full meeting set for June 1. The biggest output reductions in March came from Iraq and Nigeria, the survey found. Iraq last month promised to lower exports to make up for pumping above its OPEC target, a pledge that would cut shipments by 130,000 bpd from February. The 50,000 bpd cut in March, according to the survey, leaves more to do in later months to meet the pledge. Nigerian production also declined, with exports falling more sharply according to some ship trackers as the Dangote refinery took in more cargoes. OPEC fell about 190,000 bpd short of its targeted cuts in March, largely because of Iraq, Nigeria and Gabon pumping more than they had aimed for, the survey found. Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each kept output close to their voluntary targets, the survey found, as did Algeria. Output in Iran, exempt from quotas, edged lower, the survey found. Iran is still pumping near a five-year high reached in November after posting one of OPEC’s biggest output increases in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions still in place. There was no significant rise in output from any OPEC country last month, according to the survey. Libya, also exempt from quotas, pumped an extra 20,000 bpd as the country’s output returned to normal after disruption in February.

Crude Benchmarks Touch 5-month Highs on Demand Growth Signs -- Oil futures settled the first session of the second quarter mixed, with the crude and ULSD contracts lent upside support on expectations for increased demand during the second quarter as U.S. manufacturing emerged from contraction, while RBOB futures eased on anticipation for building gasoline inventory following the end of refinery turnaround activity.Oil futures moved between gains and losses during the session, with extended production cuts by OPEC+ through the second quarter supportive while demand growth is uncertain. However, manufacturing reports from the world's two largest economies in kicking off April buttressed optimism for economic growth and support for the middle of the barrel. In the United States, manufacturing grew for the first time since September 2022, ending a 16-month contraction. "Demand remains at the early stages of recovery, with clear signs of improving conditions. Production execution surged compared to January and February, as panelists' companies reenter expansion," said Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Weak manufacturing has weighed on demand for diesel, which is down 1.7% in 2024 through March 22, according to the Energy Information Administration. EIA did show an improvement in the most recent four weeks of data, which is up 2.2% against the comparable year-ago period, coinciding with growth in domestic manufacturing.NYMEX May ULSD futures reversed off a $2.5787 nearly three-month low on the spot continuous chart to settle up $0.0044 at $2.6271 gallon. Caixin's General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for China, released Monday detailed an ongoing expansion in March, indicating manufacturing growth accelerated domestically and internationally, "adding to evidence of a sustained recovery in the world's second-largest economy despite a prolonged real estate slump and sluggish consumption." Bank of America Global Research in a note to clients Monday pointed to demand growth for refined products during the first two months of 2024, citing data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and Customs office. During January and February, gasoline demand increased 15% against a year ago, diesel demand rose 9%, and jet fuel surged 59%."We attributed the growth of gasoline and kerosene to the fully recovered domestic travels during [the China New Year] compared to still dim consumption in 2M23 right after reopening," said the analysts with the bank's research unit. NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures settled $0.54 higher at $83.71 bbl, trimming an advance to a $84.49 five-month high on the spot continuous chart. ICE June Brent futures also surged to a five-month high on a spot continuous basis at $87.98 bbl, settling Monday's session up $0.42 at $87.42 bbl. U.S. refinery utilization increased for five consecutive weeks through March 22 to 88.7%, EIA data shows, as a lengthy seasonal maintenance period moved to closure. NYMEX May RBOB futures settled down $0.0106 at $2.71 gallon.

Oil up 1%, US WTI at 5-month closing high, market seen tight (Reuters) - Crude prices edged up about 1% on Monday with U.S. futures closing at a five-month high, on expectations that economic growth in the U.S. and China will boost demand, while supplies tighten on OPEC+ output cuts and attacks on Russian refineries.Brent futures for June delivery settled at $87.42 a barrel on Monday, June's first day as the front month. That was up about 42 cents, or 0.5%, from the April 28 settlement price for the June contract. April 29 was the Good Friday holiday.On April 28, the May Brent contract settled at a five-month high of $87.48 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 54 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $83.71, their highest close since Oct. 27.The U.S. diesel crack spread , which measures refining profit margins, narrowed to its lowest since May 2023 for a second day.In the U.S., manufacturing grew in March for the first time in 1-1/2 years, but employment at factories remained subdued amid "sizable layoff activity" and prices for inputs rose."Markets interpreted that (manufacturing data) as reducing the chances of meaningful Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) rate cuts, but construction was much weaker and there are a lot of jobs numbers still to come," analysts at ING, a bank, said in a note. Last week, U.S. Commerce Department data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - largely moderated in February, with the cost of services outside housing and energy slowing significantly.Most analysts said the moderation in the PCE price index should keep a June Fed rate cut on the table, which could boost economic growth and increase oil demand.In China, manufacturing activity in March expanded for the first time in six months, according to an official factory survey. China is the world's largest crude importer."Chinese oil demand is arguably the one missing factor outside of geopolitical headlines capable of taking oil prices to the next level," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note. "Strong summer gasoline demand and a rebound in China oil demand could be the one-two punch that support $100 a barrel," Yawger added.In Japan, optimism in the services sector climbed to a 33-year high in the first quarter on booming tourism and rising profits from price hikes, a central bank survey showed.In Europe, oil demand was firmer than expected, rising 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the year in February, Goldman Sachs analysts said, versus a forecast for a 200,000-bpd contraction in 2024.On the supply side, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price (OSP) in May for flagship Arab Light crude after Middle East benchmarks strengthened last month, according to industry sources.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country's oil companies will focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter to evenly spread production cuts with other members of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers.Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out several Russian refineries, which should reduce Russia's fuel exports as almost 1 million bpd of Russian crude processing capacity is offline.

The Oil Market Continued on its Upward Trend on Tuesday Amid a New Wave of Attacks -- The oil market continued on its upward trend on Tuesday amid a new wave of attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Ukraine struck Tatneft’s Taneco refinery, causing a fire that was soon extinguished. The drone attack on the refinery came after Russia carried out overnight raids against Ukraine’s energy network. The oil market was also well supported as Iran vowed to punish Israel for an airstrike on its embassy in Syria that killed a top military commander. The crude market opened 33 cents higher at $84.04 and posted a low of $83.85. However, the market rallied higher and posted a high of $85.46 amid the geopolitical concerns. The market later erased some of its sharp gains and traded towards the $84.00 level before further buying ahead of the close pushed the market above the $85.00 once again. The May WTI contract settled up $1.44 at $85.15 and the June Brent contract settled up $1.50 to 88.92. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.48 cents at $2.7119 and the RB market settling up 4.89 cents at $2.7589. Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, said Iran will retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike against its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, after seven Iranian military commanders were killed in an attack. Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria on Monday in a strike that Iran said killed seven of its military advisers, including three senior commanders, marking a major escalation in Israel's war with its regional adversaries.Bloomberg reported that near-term market gauges for Brent and U.S. crude have flipped over the past week to reflect more demand for bullish call options than bearish puts. The WTI second month call skew, which shows what traders will pay for options that profit from an increase in prices versus a decline, switched on Tuesday for the first time since November. The change underscores the magnitude of bullish sentiment for crude.Five OPEC+ sources stated that an OPEC+ ministerial panel is unlikely to recommend any oil output policy changes at a meeting on Wednesday as oil prices reached their highest level this year. OPEC+ will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on April 3rd to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts they have already agreed to extend. Two of the sources said they expected a straightforward meeting, citing the earlier decision to extend output cuts. On Friday, Russia’s Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has decided to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread production cuts with other OPEC+ member countries. When the voluntary curbs expire at the end of June, the total cuts by OPEC+ are set to decline to 3.66 million bpd as agreed in earlier steps starting in 2022. Trans Mountain will complete construction of the final segment of its Canadian oil pipeline expansion in April. The pipeline expansion will nearly triple the flow of crude from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast to 890,000 bpd. The pipeline, scheduled to be in service in the second quarter, is expected to raise Canadian crude prices just as producers increase production.

Brent oil hits highest price this year on fresh supply threats - (Reuters) - Global oil benchmark Brent on Tuesday rose above $89 a barrel for the first time since October, albeit briefly, as oil supplies faced fresh threats from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Brent futures for June delivery were up $1.35, or 1.5%, at $88.76 a barrel by 11:40 a.m. EDT (1540 GMT) after touching a peak of $89.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May rose $1.27, or about 1.5%, to $84.98 after touching a peak of $85.46, also the highest since October. A Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia's biggest refineries on Tuesday in an attack that Russia initially said it repelled. Russia's Astrakhan gas processing plant, controlled by energy giant Gazprom also halted production of petroleum products after a repair-related stoppage on March 30, the company said on Tuesday, confirming an earlier report from Reuters. A Reuters analysis of images showing the impact of the attack suggests it hit the refinery's primary oil refining unit, which accounts for about half of the plant's total annual production capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), though it did not appear to have caused serious damage. Russia, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, has been contending with a spate of Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries and has mounted its own attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. "The likelihood that continued restricted Russian product exports could further tighten US petroleum supplies has suddenly forced re-calculation of US (oil) balances across the rest of this month and possibly beyond," In the Middle East, Iran has vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike that killed two of its top generals and five other military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.Israel has been at war against Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, but direct Iranian involvement could spark a "region-wide conflict with plausible impact on oil supply," Elsewhere, an ecological organisation on Tuesday said a European satellite had spotted an oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield.Markets are also looking ahead to Wednesday's ministerial panel meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+. The panel is unlikely to recommend any change in oil output policy, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

Oil settles up on supply threats, hits 2024 highs during session (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after a session in which Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed the Brent benchmark above $89 a barrel for the first time since October. Brent futures for June delivery settled up $1.50, or 1.7%, at $88.92 after touching a peak of $89.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May settled up $1.44, or about 1.7%, to $85.15 after touching a peak of $85.46, also the highest since October. A Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia's biggest refineries in an attack Russia initially said it repelled.Russia's Astrakhan gas processing plant, controlled by energy giant Gazprom, also halted production of petroleum products after a repair-related stoppage on March 30, the company said, confirming an earlier report from Reuters.A Reuters analysis of images showing the impact of the attack suggests it hit the refinery's primary oil refining unit, which accounts for about half of the plant's total annual production capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd). Damage did not appear to be serious.Gasoline and diesel fuel stocks in Russia remain at a high level, Moscow said.Russia, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, has been contending with Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and has also attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure."The likelihood that continued restricted Russian product exports could further tighten US petroleum supplies has suddenly forced re-calculation of U.S. (oil) balances across the rest of this month and possibly beyond," In the Middle East, Iran has vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike that killed two top generals and five military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.Israel has been at war against Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, but direct Iranian involvement could spark a "region-wide conflict with plausible impact on oil supply," ."Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity meant to turn down the heat on the situation, there is definitely a chance the Iranians response will not be as measured this time," U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official government data will be published Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.Elsewhere, an ecological organisation said a European satellite had spotted an oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield.Markets are also looking ahead to Wednesday's ministerial panel meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers. The panel is unlikely to recommend any change in oil output policy, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.The demand outlook perked up as March data showed an expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity for the first time in six months and in the U.S. for the first time in a year and a half.

WTI Dips After Surprise Crude Inventory Build --Oil prices are extending gains to new cycle highs (WTI $86) ahead of the official inventory data (after API reported across the board draws). The move followed reports that OPEC+ chose to stick with oil supply cuts for the first half of the year, keeping global markets tight and potentially sending prices higher. API

• Crude -2.29mm
• Cushing -751k
• Gasoline -1.46mm
• Distillates -2.55mm

DOE

• Crude +3.21mm
• Cushing -377k
• Gasoline -4.26mm
• Distillates -1.27mm

The official data surprised with a crude inventory build (API draw) but product draws continued... Source: Bloomberg The Biden administration added 591k barrels to the SPR last week, but that might be it for a while as the Biden admin has now canceled new purchases (for taxpayers' own good)...

Oil Futures Advance, Fade Gains as Mixed Data Slows Ascent -- Nearest delivered oil futures settled Wednesday's session higher but faded gains following mixed macroeconomic data and an unexpected build in commercial crude inventory in the United States.ICE June Brent futures rallied to a $89.99 five-month high on the spot continuous chart, settling the midweek session up $0.43 at $89.35 per barrel (bbl). NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures edged up $0.28 with a $85.43 bbl settlement, trimming an advance to a $86.20 five-month high on a spot continuous basis.U.S. commercial crude inventory increased 3.21 million bbl to a 451.417 million bbl, more than seven-month high, during the week ended March 29, while up 6.375 million bbl during the most recent two-week period, Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported midmorning. Crude stocks increased 20.352 million bbl, or 4.7%, during the first quarter, with most of the build occurring in mid-February amid deeper-than-expected seasonal maintenance at refineries. Another weekly falloff in U.S. crude exports, down 159,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.022 million bpd last week, boosted the net import rate to a 2.596-million-bpd eight-week high.Domestic demand for distillate fuel dropped back a steep 533,000 bpd to 3.495 million bpd, crushing optimism for a rebound in demand amid an improvement in manufacturing activity in March. Distillate fuel supplied to the U.S. market is down a steep 245,000 bpd or 6.3% against the comparable year-ago period during the four weeks ended March 29 at 3.671 million bpd, according to EIA data.Gasoline inventory was drawn down a steep 4.256 million bbl during the final week of March, pressing stocks to a 227.816 million bbl 14-week low. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market jumped 521,000 bpd to a 9.236 million bpd five-month high in closing out the first quarter, EIA data shows.NYMEX May RBOB futures firmed with a $ 2.7609-gallon settlement, paring an advance to a $2.7910 seven-month high on the spot continuous chart. NYMEX May ULSD futures settled up $0.0205 at $2.7324 per gallon.More private payroll jobs were created in March than expected, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning which showed job growth of 184,000 compared with expectations for 150,000 new jobs. Job gains were widespread, led by leisure and hospitality, and included new employment in construction and manufacturing. Worker pay expanded last month."Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services," said Nela Richardson, chief economist with ADP.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the closely watched nonfarm employment report for March at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, with the market anticipating job growth of 200,000.The data is in modest conflict with a slowdown in the service sector, with the Institute of Supply Management on Wednesday morning reporting a 1.2% decline in its purchasing manager's index to 51.4 last month. The sector continues to grow, although service sector employment contracted for a second month in March.

Oil settles at 5-month high, gains capped by jump in US crude stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices settled at their highest levels since October on Wednesday on investor concerns about supply disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East, although a jump in U.S. crude oil inventories capped the gains.Brent futures rose 43 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $89.35 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.43 a barrel.Both contracts were up more than a dollar earlier in the session due to growing concerns about the potential for a supply deficit during the peak summer driving season.A meeting of top ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, kept oil supply policy unchanged on Wednesday and pressed some countries to boost compliance with output cuts.The group said some members would compensate for oversupplies in the first quarter. It also said Russia would switch to output rather than export curbs."If those compensation cuts get implemented, and Russia switches their export cuts to crude cuts, OPEC+ production should trend lower in the second quarter - a period when demand seasonally picks up," Also on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was cautious about future interest rate cuts due to recent data showing higher-than-expected job growth and inflation.The comments were positive for oil because they indicated solid U.S. economic growth, In the Middle East, Iran has vowed revenge against Israel for an attack on Monday that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC.Brent and WTI futures have hit five-month intraday highs for three consecutive sessions, also lifted as Ukraine'sattacks on Russian refineries cut fuel supply there. Oil market participants are figuring out how to price in these developments and for how long, Bank of America Global Research raised its 2024 Brent and WTI forecasts to $86 and $81 a barrel, respectively, it said in a note.Oil's gains were capped after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude stocks increased by 3.2 million barrels in the week to March 29. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decrease of more than 1.5 million barrels, in line with data reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday."The EIA report went in the other direction on crude oil from what the API reported yesterday, so that has helped pause the rally a little bit,

Oil prices fall amid sluggish demand in the US --Oil prices have shown a limited decline with a demand drop in the US, although global geopolitical tension put upward pressure on prices.International benchmark Brent crude traded at $89.20 per barrel at 10.49 p.m. local time (0749GMT), a 0.17 percent drop from the closing price of $89.35 per barrel in the previous trading session. At the same time, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $85.23 per barrel, down 0.23 percent from the previous session's close of $85.43 per barrel.The US is signalling a decline in demand, with data indicating an increase in crude stocks in the largest oil-consuming country in the world.US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels last week against the market expectation of a decrease of around 300,000 barrels, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. A fall in gasoline stocks in the country by approximately 4.3 million barrels to 227.8 million barrels, however, raised hopes of a demand recovery, limiting price falls.Uncertainty over the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts combined with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's "wait-and-see" messages continue to influence prices. Following a Fed meeting in which the bank kept its monetary policy unchanged, Powell said that a tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on demand, especially in interest-sensitive spending categories.Based on the higher-than-expected results from the latest data on both employment and inflation, Powell noted that inflation data in January and February remained above the low values seen in the second half of last year."Given the strength of the economy and the progress made in inflation so far, we have time to allow incoming data to guide our policy decisions," Powell said.Meanwhile, oil prices tested five-month highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and worries over global supply disruptions.Israel continues its assault on besieged Gaza despite calls for a ceasefire. In response, Yemen's Houthi group has been targeting cargo ships going to and from Israel in the Red Sea, one of the world's most frequently used sea routes for oil and fuel shipments.

The Oil Market Rallied Sharply Higher in the Afternoon Amid the Intensifying Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East - The oil market posted an outside trading day on Thursday after the market retraced some of its previous gains early in the session and later rallied sharply higher in afternoon trading amid the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market traded mostly sideways for much of the day as it traded back below the $85.00 level and posted a low of $84.64 early in the afternoon. However, the oil market bounced off that level on news that Israeli embassies across the U.S. had been placed on high alert due to increasing threats of an Iranian attack on Israeli diplomats. On Thursday, the U.S. issued its strongest public rebuke towards Israel, with President Joe Biden calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and warning that U.S. policy on Gaza will be determined by whether Israel takes steps to address the safety of Palestinian civilians and aid workers. The crude market extended its gains to over $1.70 as it rallied to a high of $87.22 ahead of the close. The May WTI contract settled up $1.16 at $86.59. The June Brent contract settled up $1.30 at $90.65 after breaching the $90.00 level for the first time since October. Meanwhile, the product markets ended higher, with the heating oil market settling up 89 points at $2.7413 and the RB market settling up 3.33 cents at $2.7942.The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s military scrambled GPS signals on Thursday as the country braced for possible retaliation by Iran or one of its allied militias for a suspected Israeli airstrike Monday on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria. The attack killed a senior Iranian general and six other military officials. Israel has sporadically disrupted GPS signals since the start of its war with Hamas in early October. However, the GPS disruptions have intensified since the Monday strike in Damascus. The IDF announced that it had decided to temporarily halt leave for combat units. The head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Aharon Haliva, warned Israel is facing “complex days” ahead amid the increasing threats of strikes by Iran. Analysts with expertise in Iran and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps say the chances of a direct Iranian strike on Israel are slim, particularly because Iran does not have the capabilities to defeat Israel militarily and is struggling to contain public unrest at home. Meanwhile, an adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said to expect a form of retaliation on Thursday or Friday, saying Iran would choose an action proportional to the Israeli attack in Damascus.The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden called on Thursday for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during a phone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to a White House statement, President Biden called on Israel to take immediate steps “to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers” and “made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” Trans Mountain said it expects its expanded oil pipeline system will start commercial operations on May 1st. The company said that with the appropriate approvals from the Canada Energy Regulator and completion of remaining construction activity, Trans Mountain will commence transporting crude oil on the expanded pipeline system.

Oil prices climb more than $1 per barrel on supply risk (Reuters) - The Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil benchmarks rose more than $1 a barrel during trade on Friday as markets watched for signs of any direct conflict between Israel and Iran that could further tighten supplies.Brent crude settled at $91.17 a barrel, up 52 cents, or 0.57%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $86.91 a barrel, up 32 cents, or 0.37%.Both benchmarks settled on Thursday at their highest levels since October.Brent and WTI are set to notch more than 4% gains this week after Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, vowed revenge against Israel for an attack that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel."If Iran directly attacks Israel, that's never happened before," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. "It's just another geopolitical risk domino about to fall."Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran's embassy compound in Syria on Monday.Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in Russia may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, aNATO official said on Thursday, hitting the country's fuel output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, this week kept its oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts."Further clampdowns on adherence to quotas should see output fall further in Q2," ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote in a note."The prospect of a tighter market should see a drawdown in inventories during the second quarter."Meanwhile, U.S. job growth soared in March, easily beating expectations, according to official data released on Friday which also showed a steady increase in wages.The gain of 303,000 jobs last month points to likely robust oil demand but potentially delays anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year.Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a third week in a row for the first time since October, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 620 in the week to April 5, the lowest since early February.

Crude Benchmarks at 24-Week Highs on Expanded Global Risk - The U.S. and international crude benchmarks settled Friday's session at 24-week highs as the risk to global security heightened this week with a high-profile killing of an Iranian general. The ULSD contract ended at a three-week high on a bullish U.S. employment report highlighting strong economic growth. June Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced $0.52 to a $91.17 per barrel (bbl) settlement Friday, trading as high as $91.91 bbl as Israel prepared for a possible retaliatory strike by Iran after a missile strike on Monday killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Analysts said hostilities between Israel and Iran came out of the shadows this week and could lead to direct confrontation. Tehran has so far used proxies in attacking Israel, seeking to avoid an attack by Israel or luring the U.S. into a conflict. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled up $0.32 at $86.91 bbl Friday, with the U.S. crude benchmark paring an advance to $87.63 bbl. NYMEX May ULSD futures gained $0.0317 on the session with a $2.7730 gallon nearly three-week high settlement on the spot continuous chart. ULSD has now advanced for six consecutive sessions after testing key trendline support in late March with the contract under pressure from weak demand amid a prolonged contraction in freight hauling and manufacturing activity. The Institute of Supply Management on Monday released its manufacturing Index for March showing factory activity grew for the first time since September 2022. Continued strength in the U.S. labor force bodes well for the economy with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning reporting job growth of 303,000 in March, far outpacing expectations. Job growth in construction, with 39,000 new positions reported, outpaced the 19,000 average over the previous 12 months. Construction is an important driver of diesel demand. While bullish for the economy, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow indicator calling for first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 2.5% before Friday's employment report, wage growth again expanded -- up 4.1% year-on-year in March. A growing labor force and higher wages add to inflation that is seen pushing back the start of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve that was seen beginning in June. CME's FedWatch Tool shows a 50.9% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain the federal funds rate in its current 5.25% by 5.5% target range at its June 12 meeting, up from 34.2% on Thursday. Consumer spending could be restrained as inflation appears to be sticky while interest rates stay higher for longer, potentially slowing driving demand. NYMEX May RBOB futures eased $0.0056 from a seven-month high settlement on a spot continuous basis to $2.7886 gallon.

Israeli Airstrike Hits Iranian Consulate Building in Damascus, High-Level Iranian General Reported Killed - On Monday, an Israeli airstrike leveled an Iranian consulate building that’s next to the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus, marking a significant escalation in Israeli attacks on Iranians in the region.At least seven people were killed in the strike, including Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran has confirmed the death of Zahedi, who oversaw the IRGC’s Quds Force operations in Syria and Lebanon and is vowing a harsh response.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani Tehran will “decide on the type of response and punishment against the aggressor.” According to AP, the IRGC said the strike also killed Zahedi’s deputy and five other Iranian officers.The bombing of the diplomatic facility comes a few days after Israel launched some of its heaviest airstrikes in Syria that reportedly killed 52 people, including Syrian soldiers and members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Israel has also killed multiple members of the IRGC since it ramped up airstrikes in Syria after October 7.

Russia Voices Outrage As Death Toll Rises To 11 After Israeli Attack On Iran's Damascus Embassy --Monitors cited in AFP report the death toll from Monday's Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus has risen to 11. "The death toll from the Israeli strikes on the Iranian embassy annex has risen to 11: eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese -- all of them fighters, none of them civilians," AFP quoted the war monitor as saying.Regional and international reaction came hours later, with Lebanese Hezbollah -- a close ally of Iran -- vowing that Israel will be "punished" for the attack. As we detailed earlier (below), several top IRGC commanders were killed in the strike at a moment a high-level military meeting was taking place.Russia's Foreign Ministry reacted as follows: "We strongly condemn this attack on the Iranian consular office in Syria. We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular facilities, the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions, to be categorically unacceptable." However, Russia has by and large taken a back seat when it comes to responding to Israeli attacks on Syria. Israeli aircraft typically fire on Syria from over nearby Lebanese airspace, but Syrians have increasingly wondered why Moscow doesn't use its significant anti-air systems parked in the region to defend against such attacks on its ally the Assad government. But Russia and Israel apparently reached a status quo deal years ago, which allow for the Israeli raids as long as they are ostensibly targeting 'Iranian assets'. Among the slain in Monday's attack was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who reportedly oversaw Quds Forces operations in Syria and Lebanon. Clearly Israeli's intelligence capabilities are significant regarding Iranian movements and operations inside Syria, given Israel clearly knew the where and when of the top level meeting.A strike like this -- against an embassy which is supposed to be 'protected' by international diplomatic norms upheld by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations -- is somewhat unprecedented and so marks a massive escalation by Israel. David Asher, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former senior State Department official under the Trump administration had this to say in terms of what's likely to come next:"This is a huge strike against Iran’s Qods Force. Expect to see Iranian missile retaliation directly against Israel. Things are moving beyond proxy war into direct conflict. Crude prices should make a decisive move higher on macro risk," he told ZeroHedge.Others are currently speculating that Israel may be trying to provoke a war with Iran to get the US directly involved on its side. The Hezbollah situation along Israel's northern border continues to be at crisis levels, given that an estimated 80,000 Israeli citizens remain evacuated from their homes.

Israel bombs Iran’s embassy in Damascus: The Middle East on the brink of region-wide war - Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Monday, which killed three senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three others, is an act of war against Iran for which Washington and its NATO allies bear political responsibility. The bombing marks a major new stage in the Israeli war on Iran, because its target is Iranian territory, according to international law. The Israeli regime has long conducted a lawless foreign policy of targeted murder, repeatedly bombing Iranian and Syrian officials—particularly after the US murder of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 in Iraq. Its latest action, however, threatens to provoke a direct war between Iran and Israel, as well as Israel’s NATO imperialist backers. Yesterday, Iranian officials vowed retaliation. “We will make [Israel] regret this crime and others it has committed,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said. The Russian, Chinese and Saudi foreign ministries also issued statements condemning the strike. The Biden administration reportedly contacted Iranian officials just after the strike, denying responsibility and claiming Israeli officials had only notified it of the strike until only minutes before it took place. However, that Israel felt it could take such action, whether or not it notified Biden, is because Washington and its NATO imperialist allies have given it a blank check throughout six months of genocide against Gaza. It is difficult to believe that Israel would have taken this action without coordination with the White House. If that was the case, it would indicate that the Biden administration is seeking an enormous escalation of war in advance of the November election. In any case, the United States, Britain and France all refused to denounce the Israeli strike last night in a UN Security Council meeting. Effectively endorsing Israel’s rationale for the strike, US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said he was “concerned by reports that terrorist leaders and elements were allegedly present at this facility and condemn Iran’s continued coordination, training and arming of terrorists and other violent extremists.” This week, US officials brazenly defended the Israeli army’s massacre of 400 people at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre baldly declared, “Hamas should not be operating out of hospitals.” US State Department spokesman Mike Matthews also indicated he would endorse an Israeli assault on Rafah, where 1.5 million Palestinian refugees are living in tent cities, stating that a scenario where “Israel does nothing about the Hamas fighters that continue to exist in Rafah” is “not acceptable.” Washington and its NATO allies green-light the Israeli genocide, which has killed 32,000 Palestinians, because they are preparing similar crimes across the Middle East. At the outset of the Gaza genocide, Washington sent carrier battle groups and nuclear missile submarines to the region that were explicitly targeted at Iran. Today, as Israeli officials discuss invading Lebanon to attack the Hezbollah militia, plans are well advanced for the NATO imperialist powers to use Israel as a proxy in new neo-colonial wars against Lebanon, Syria and beyond. For a decade, Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces have fought in Syria alongside government forces against NATO-backed “rebel” Islamist or Kurdish nationalist militias. The 13 years of the NATO war for regime change in Syria have devastated the country, leaving a half million dead and over 10 million refugees. Israel decapitated the Iranian military command in Syria and Lebanon Monday amid a global war the imperialist powers are waging for domination of Eurasia. While Washington and its NATO allies fight Russia in Europe, arming the far-right Ukrainian regime in Kiev, they are also attacking Russia and its allies in the Middle East.

Iran vows revenge for alleged Israeli strike on consulate in Syria - Iran is vowing to hit back after an alleged Israeli strike hit near the Iranian Embassy in Syria, killing at least seven people, including a senior commander in Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lamented the Monday death of Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the most high-profile loss for Tehran since Israel began fighting the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas in October. “The evil regime will be punished by the hands of our brave warriors,” Khamenei said in a Tuesday statement, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. “We will make them regret this crime and the like by God’s grace.” The alleged Israeli strike hit the consulate section near the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing Zahedi and six other IRGC officers, including another high-ranking official, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi. Zahedi was a senior commander in the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, where Iran has a large influence, and his death prompted an outcry across the country Monday and Tuesday. Israeli has repeatedly struck at IRGC officers over the years in Syria, but the death of Zahedi may provoke a more passionate response from Tehran. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi convened a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council on Monday night and afterward said “appropriate decisions” were made to respond to Israel, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. Israel “has put blind assassinations on its agenda in its attempts to save itself,” Raisi said in a statement after the attack. The Israeli military declined to comment on the alleged strike when contacted by The Hill. Israel has rarely acknowledged strikes on Iranian officers in Syria. The United Nations Security Council is expected to meet later Tuesday to discuss the strike, after Iran called for an emergency session.

Iranians Brand Government As Toothless Following Militant Attack - In the wake of a spate of deadly militant attacks in southeastern Iran, criticism of the government's intelligence and security failures has intensified, labeling it a "paper tiger." Iran International has been flooded with messages from viewers critical of the Iranian government. These messages highlight a perceived discrepancy between the government's harsh treatment of its own citizens and its apparent inefficacy in dealing with external threats. In a late-night attack on Wednesday, the Sunni militant group Jaish ul-Adl targeted at least five military posts and Revolutionary Guard bases in the cities of Chabahar and Rask. Clashes continued throughout the night, with the government announcing the neutralization of all attackers by Friday noon. At least 28 individuals were killed in the clashes, including 18 militants and 10 Iranian military personnel. Full casualty figures for the injured are unavailable, but reports indicate at least 15 Guards were wounded from a single unit. Jaish ul-Adl has a well-documented history of targeting Iranian forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, in areas bordering Pakistan. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2010, the group has also been implicated in civilian casualties from past bombings. The attack comes just a few days after an Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards, including a high-ranking general. Since the outbreak of the Gaza War in October, suspected Israeli strikes have eliminated at least 18 IRGC commanders and advisors. In response, Iran has issued repeated threats of "harsh revenge," with pronouncements from regime officials, including the Supreme Leader himself. A recurring theme in the messages sent to Iran International was that the attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan and Syria prove that the Islamic Republic is unable to respond to or prevent the attacks abroad and at home. “The Islamic Republic's real strength is in suppressing its own people," one of person said. “The government is able to quickly identify and punish any Iranian who expresses the slightest opposition to the regime.” In response to the attacks in Syria and Sistan-Baluchistan Province, the Islamic Republic has resorted to threatening Israel with revenge. However, according to an audio file, this is merely a display of strength, as the Islamic Republic lacks the capability to defeat Israel. Another Iranian highlighted that the Tehran's claims of its military power are a "sham" as it has not been able to defeat Jaish ul-Adl, a small guerrilla group that repeatedly carry out attacks in Iran. “They can't even handle Jaish ul-Adl, a guerrilla group, and yet they claim they can defeat Israel with all its equipment and intelligence superiority." In January, IRGC targeted what it claimed were hideouts of the Sunni militants in Pakistan's Baluchistan with missiles. Islamabad retaliated with heavy fire a day later, marking the first attack by a foreign country inside Iranian soil since the end of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). Iranians slammed the government for not responding to Pakistan’s airstrikes. Frequent criticism of the Islamic Republic is that it maintains power solely through the repression of its own citizens. Its strength is only in "killing its own people," said an Iranian in an audio file sent to Iran International. The Islamic Republic's intelligence capabilities are only good for "identifying opponents of compulsory hijab, harassing and imprisoning them, killing young protesters and silencing trade union activists." All in all, these comments suggest a widespread skepticism about the Islamic Republic's claims about its military and intelligence capabilities. Instead, Iranians perceive the regime's true strength to lie in its ability to suppress dissent.

Eight Killed, 30 Wounded in Overnight Market Blast in Northern Syria - An overnight car blast tore through a crowded marketplace in the rebel-held northern Syrian city of Azaz,killing at least eight people and wounding some 30 others. Two children were reported among the fatalities.The market was unusually busy that night because of the holy month of Ramadan, and shoppers were flocking to the marketplace to buy clothing for their children for the upcoming Eid al-Fitr celebration.As ambulances and rescue workers flocked to the scene, the crowd was in near panic, fearing a second explosion, as many bombing plots strike a second time during the chaos.Azaz lies due north of Aleppo, near the Turkish border. The city is the seat of the current Syrian Interim Government, the self-proclaimed government. The city is occupied by pro-Turkey rebel factions, and police say they’ve tightened checkpoints in response to the attacks. The bombing in Aleppo Province comes just two days after the deadliest Israeli attack in several years on the area around the Aleppo airport. This major attack killed at least 52, most of them Syrian soldiers.

Details show Israel's airstrike on World Central Kitchen staff was deliberate - On Monday night, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed seven international aid workers from World Central Kitchen (WCK) in Gaza in an airstrike on their vehicle convoy as it was returning to their warehouse.The attack used precision munitions directly targeting the roofs of the vehicles, which displayed large logos clearly identifying their occupants as humanitarian workers.World Central Kitchen had informed the Israeli military of its travel plans, meaning that the Israeli military would have been fully aware of the vehicles it was attacking.Herzi Halevi, the chief of staff of Israel’s armed forces, claimed that the attack was a “grave mistake” and a “misidentification.” While White House spokesman John Kirby declared that “there’s no evidence” that the attack was “deliberate.”These claims are belied both by the direct circumstances of the attacks and by Israel’s systematic targeting of food distribution workers as part of its systematic effort to starve the population of Gaza.In a statement condemning the attack, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the attack brings the number of humanitarian workers killed in Gaza “to 196 – including more than 175 members of our own UN staff.”Over the past month, Israel has killed hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza at food distribution centers in so-called “flour massacres,” including one in late February that killed at least 112 and injured more than 700.Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a statement on Tuesday, “Knowing how Israel operates, my assessment is that Israeli forces intentionally killed #WCK workers so that donors would pull out and civilians in Gaza could continue to be starved quietly.”In its investigation of the killing, Al Jazeera found that the three vehicles transporting the aid workers were targeted one at a time.After leaving the World Central Kitchen’s warehouse, the first vehicle in the convoy was struck approximately one mile down the road. Al Jazeera reported that “the injured were transferred from the first targeted car to another armoured vehicle to expedite their transport.”Al Jazeera’s investigation found that “the second vehicle was targeted approximately 800 metres (2,525 feet) away from where the first was hit. The third car was targeted about 1.6km (nearly a mile) away from the second car.” Based on these facts, Al Jazeera’s Sanad Verification Agency “found that the attacks were, in fact, intentional.”World Central Kitchen CEO Erin Gore said in a statement, “This is not only an attack against WCK, this is an attack on humanitarian organizations showing up in the most dire of situations where food is being used as a weapon of war. This is unforgivable.”The aid organization said the victims were from Australia, Poland, United Kingdom, a dual citizen of the US and Canada, and Palestine.After World Central Kitchen released the names and photos of the aid workers later in the day on Tuesday, Gore added, “These are the heroes of World Central Kitchen. These 7 beautiful souls were killed by the IDF in a strike as they were returning from a full day’s mission. Their smiles, laughter, and voices are forever embedded in our memories. And we have countless memories of them giving their best selves to the world. We are reeling from our loss. The world’s loss.”In a statement Tuesday, US President Joe Biden attempted to verbally distance himself from the massacre, saying, “I am outraged and heartbroken by the deaths of seven humanitarian workers from World Central Kitchen.” But when asked whether the killing was a war crime, White House spokesman John Kirby categorically asserted that it was not and that Israel has not committed any violations of international law during the entire conflict.“To date,” Kirby said, the US government “have not found any incidents where the Israelis have violated international humanitarian law.”When asked by a shocked reporter whether the White House was really claiming that Israel has “never violated international humanitarian law ever in the past five to six months,” Kirby replied, “the State Department has looked at incidents in the past and has yet to determine that any of those incidents violate international humanitarian law.”

José Andrés says Israel ‘systematically’ targeted aid workers -- Renowned chef José Andrés, founder of the food charity World Central Kitchen (WCK), called out the Israeli military on Wednesday after seven of his organization’s workers were killed in one of its airstrikes, saying the group was “systematically” targeted “car by car.”A convoy of WCK vehicles was struck multiple times by the Israeli military on Monday after leaving one of the group’s warehouses, where it dropped off food aid. The convoy was driving along a route previously approved by the Israeli military in a “deconflicted zone” when it was attacked.“This was not just a bad luck situation where ‘oops’ we dropped the bomb in the wrong place,”Andrés told Reuters. “Even if we were not in coordination with the [Israeli military], no democratic country and no military can be targeting civilians and humanitarians.”The seven WCK volunteers killed in the strike were from Australia, Poland, the United Kingdom and Palestine, and one was a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada.The Israeli military took responsibility for the strike, claiming it was caused by a miscommunication and false intelligence that a Hamas militant was with the group. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the Israelis are “conducting a thorough inquiry.” “This happens in war,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

Israel Bombed Foreign Aid Workers Three Times Until They Were All Killed - Israel launched three separate drone strikes on an aid convoy in its attack that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers, Haaretz reported on Tuesday. One Israeli drone fired three missiles at three cars that were clearly marked with the WCK’s logos and were traveling on roads preapproved by the Israeli military. After the first car was hit, wounded survivors were picked up by a second car. After that car was hit, they went into the third car. Then, the Israeli drone finished the job. The attack killed three British nationals, a dual American-Canadian citizen, a Palestinian, an Australian, and a Polish citizen. Israeli officials have claimed the airstrikes were a mistake, but the meticulous nature of the operation suggests it was a targeted killing of aid workers and part of Israel’s campaign to starve Palestinians, as several aid organizations have suspended operations in Gaza in response. According to Israeli sources speaking to Haaretz, the three cars were hit after escorting an aid truck to a food warehouse in central Gaza.

'Indictments Now,' Says UN Expert After Israel Massacres World Central Kitchen Workers -The United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories demanded criminal consequences for Israeli officials on Tuesday after the country's forces attacked a World Central Kitchen convoy in the Gaza Strip, killing seven workers and sparking global outrage."Israel is crossing every possible red line, still with full impunity," Francesca Albanese wrote in a social media post, noting that the Israeli military's attack on the WCK convoy came on the same day that itbombed Iran's consulate in Syria."Sanctions now," Albanese wrote. "Indictments now."The International Criminal Court, the global body tasked with trying individuals for war crimes, is currently investigating alleged Israeli crimes in the Gaza Strip.Early accounts described the Israeli attack on the WCK convoy on Monday as a singular strike, but reporting and on-the-ground testimony have since made clear that Israeli forces launched three successive strikes on the vehicles.WCK described the attack as "targeted," given that the convoy coordinated its movements with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the vehicles were clearly marked with the humanitarian aid group's logo. Photographs released in the wake of the attack show that an Israeli missile tore through the WCK logo on the roof of one of the targeted vehicles.According to Haaretz, "an Israeli drone fired three missiles one after the other" at the convoy, reportedly believing that a suspected "terrorist" was traveling with the aid workers."At some point, when the convoy was driving along the approved route, the war room of the unit responsible for security of the route ordered the drone operators to attack one of the cars with a missile," the Israeli newspaper reported, citing unnamed IDF sources.After the first car was hit, survivors attempted to flee and transfer the wounded into the other cars—at which point Israeli forces launched missiles at the two remaining vehicles.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes "unintentionally" killed innocent WCK staffers, but the Haaretz reporting indicates the IDF knowingly launched several lethal attacks on the aid convoy.

Israel's Savage Destruction Of Gaza's Healthcare System Is Exactly What It Looks Like by Caitlin Johnstone --Israel has ended its assault on the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, because there is nothing left to assault. The facility — the largest medical complex in Gaza where hundreds of civilians had been sheltering — is now an empty, unusable, burnt-out husk. Witnesses report hundreds of corpses in and around the complex, with video footage showing human body parts protruding from the earth and bodies with zip ties on their wrists. Israel is currently doing its usual song and dance where it claims the hospital was a Hamas headquarters and everyone it killed there was a “terrorist”, but at this point the only people buying that schtick are the ones who desperately need to. This was a massacre of profound savagery. It’s as plain as day to anyone who isn’t deeply invested in pretending otherwise. Israel, which at the beginning of the Gaza onslaught had adamantly denied that it would ever attack a hospital, has since launched hundreds of documented attacks on Gaza’s healthcare services and has destroyed most of its healthcare system. Just today the director-general of the World Health Organization announced that an Israeli airstrike on Gaza’s al-Aqsa Hospital compound killed four people and injured seventeen. Oxford University professor Nick Maynard, who spent time working at al-Aqsa Hospital earlier this year, recently accused the IDF of “systematically targeting healthcare facilities, healthcare personnel and really dismantling the whole healthcare system” in Gaza.“It’s not just about targeting the buildings, it’s about systematically destroying the infrastructure of the hospitals,” says Maynard. “Destroying the oxygen tanks at the al-Shifa hospital, deliberately destroying the CT scanners and making it much more difficult to rebuild that infrastructure. If the objective is to target Hamas, why trash the hospital’s medical equipment? If the objective is to target Hamas, why destroy the whole complex and make it unusable as a healthcare facility? Logically we can only conclude that it isn’t about targeting Hamas at all. It’s about destroying Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.Why would Israel want to destroy Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure? The answer to that question has been clear for months: to make the land uninhabitable for the Palestinians. The same reason they’re deliberately starving Gazans, destroying their homes, continually moving them from place to place and bombing every “safe zone” they create. This is naturally giving rise to a situation in which the inhabitants of Gaza will either die or flee to some other country — which just so happens to be exactly what Israel wants them to do.

Genocide Prevention Group Issues 'Urgent SOS Warning' as Israel Takes Aim at Rafah -The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention, an organization named after the Polish lawyer who coined the term genocide, issued what it called an "urgent SOS warning" on Tuesday for Palestinians in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than half of the enclave's population is currently sheltering with nowhere else to go.The group said Israel's flurry of airstrikes on Rafah last week "could be the opening salvo to Israel's promised ground invasion of the town, which is home to the critical crossing to Egypt." Reuters reported that one of the Israeli strikes killed 11 members of a single family."This bombing is a genocidal act conducted by Israel against a trapped civilian population," the Lemkin Institute said.The group's statement came after U.S. and Israeli officials met virtually on Monday to discuss the Biden administration's proposed "alternatives" to a large-scale ground invasion of Rafah, which is currently home to more than 1.5 million people—most of them displaced from other parts of the enclave.The meeting came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled earlier plans for bilateral Rafah talks following the U.S.decision last week not to veto a cease-fire resolution at the United Nations Security Council.Instead of launching a full-scale ground assault on the city, the Biden White House pushed Israel during the meeting "to take more targeted actions to kill or capture Hamas leaders while limiting civilian impacts,"according toThe Associated Press.The White House said in a statement following Monday's virtual meeting that "the two sides over the course of two hours had a constructive engagement on Rafah.""They agreed that they share the objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah," the statement reads. "The U.S. side expressed its concerns with various courses of action in Rafah. The Israeli side agreed to take these concerns into account and to have follow-up discussions between experts."In its statement on Tuesday, the Lemkin Institute noted that U.S. President Joe Biden has described an Israeli ground invasion of Rafah as a "red line" for his administration. Politico reported last month that Biden would "consider" placing conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel if it goes ahead with an invasion of Rafah.Echoing a growing number of U.S. lawmakers from both chambers of Congress, the Lemkin Institute urged Biden to comply with U.S. laws prohibiting weapons transfers to countries violating human rights and obstructing the delivery of American humanitarian aid—both of which Israel has done repeatedly since October."If the U.S. president fails to act on his own words to prevent the further genocide of the people of Gaza and to behave in accordance with the rules-based international order he purports to prize," said the Lemkin Institute, "his betrayal of humanity will be remembered by the world forever."

Israel Creates 'Kill Zones' in Gaza Where Anyone Who Enters Gets Shot Israel has been creating “kill zones” in the Gaza Strip in areas where the Israeli military is operating, and anyone who enters will get shot even if they’re unarmed civilians, Haaretz reported on Sunday.The report said anyone killed in a designated kill zone is labeled a “terrorist” even if they “never held a gun in their lives,” and they are “often civilians whose only crime was to cross an invisible line drawn by the IDF.”One Israeli reservist who was recently in north Gaza said the “feeling we had was that there weren’t really rules of engagement there.”Other sources in the IDF told Haaretz that Israel’s claim that 9,000 out of the 32,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza are “terrorists” is not valid. “In practice, a terrorist is anyone the IDF has killed in the areas in which its forces operate,” an Israeli reserve officer said.A senior officer in Israel’s Southern Command said it was “astonishing to hear the reports after every operation regarding how many terrorists were killed.” He added that Hamas fighters don’t operate in large groups, saying, “You don’t need to be a genius to realize that you don’t have hundreds or dozens of armed men running through the streets of Khan Yunis or Jabaliya, fighting the IDF.”Another reserve officer who spoke with Haaretz said he was tasked with telling senior IDF officers how many “terrorists” were killed in operations his men carried out and said no one “can determine with certainty who is a terrorist and who was hit after entering the combat zone of an IDF force.”The world got a glimpse of the indiscriminate policy when Al Jazeera published a video of an Israeli drone killing four unarmed men. The video shows the men walking in an open area of Khan Younis when a drone strike hits them. Two of the men instantly died, and the other two were finished off with a third and fourth missile strike. The last man who was killed was limping, then crawling away in a desperate attempt to flee.A senior IDF officer confirmed to Haaretz that the four men were “unarmed” and that they “didn’t endanger our forces in the area in which they were walking.”

The Plan Is To Turn Palestine Into A Historical Footnote So It's Too Late To Save It by Caitlin Johnstone -- The Zionist plan for the Palestinians is to kill them and drive them off their land by whatever cruelty is necessary, with the understanding that one day people will look back on it in the same way they look back on the genocides of other indigenous populations, saying “Yeah it was bad, but that was in the past so there’s nothing we can do about it.” The Zionists take a long view of history, understanding that all the outrage and backlash they’re facing over Gaza right now will one day be irrelevant if they can carry out their plan for the territory today. They know that future generations of Israeli settlers will be able to say “Sure there was an ethnic cleansing in Gaza and a bunch of mass atrocities were committed, but that all happened before I was born; I had nothing to do with it. What do you want me to do, give up the home I’ve lived in all my life? That’s nuts.” And they’re absolutely right: if Israel succeeds in driving the Palestinians out of Gaza (and assuming humanity doesn’t destroy itself via nuclear armageddon or environmental collapse), that is exactly the future they can expect to have. The genocidal atrocities against the Palestinians will be something kids learn about in history class. Israel itself might even be able to be a lot more honest about what happened, once the Palestinian problem has been fully resolved and the threat of a Palestinian state no longer exists. So they do what they need to do in the meantime, with the understanding that this will one day all be rubbed away by the sands of time. They commit what atrocities they need to commit, they lie in whatever ways they need to lie, and they exert influence wherever they need to exert influence until they can get this thing locked down. Once they have, they can sit back and let old father time do the rest of the work for them. That’s why it’s so important to oppose this thing now: because once Palestine is erased, it’s highly unlikely that it can ever be restored. We see what an uphill battle it is to obtain any rights at all for indigenous populations in other nations founded on genocidal settler-colonialism, and they haven’t even been driven out of their national borders into foreign countries. The sins of the present and the recent past are much, much easier to correct than the sins of the distant past. That’s why the Zionists are so keen to move these atrocities into the “sins of the distant past” category.

Western allies face genocide complicity if support for Israel continues -- An attack on a humanitarian convoy, killing several foreign aid workers. The destruction of a hospital with hundreds killed inside. An air raid on a consulate in a foreign country.These are just some of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the region this week, adding to the accusations of war crimes levelled against it, and even genocide.But, even as Israel’s Western allies face the possibility of charges for complicity in war crimes, many continue to send weapons to Israel and withhold funds from the main United Nations agency working in Gaza, despite the very real threat of famine among its population of roughly two million people.The charges of genocide – and the continuing case brought forward by South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – have done little to shift any of this.Late last month, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian Territory Francesca Albanese sent a warning to Israel’s Western allies, issuing a report stating that there were clear indications that Israel was violating the UN Genocide Convention, and emphasising that complicity in genocide was also “expressly prohibited, giving rise to obligations for third states”.On this basis, Nicaragua has already taken Germany to the ICJ for violating international law by continuing to arm Israel. Individual groups around the world are also pursuing cases against their governments.And yet, Germany continues to provide arms to Israel. Other large-scale providers of weapons, such as the US, the UK and Australia have also stopped short of suspending weapons sales – even as more than 32,000 people have been killed in Gaza and more are killed every day.“A failure by states such as Germany, the UK and the US to reassess how they are providing support to Israel provides grounds to question whether those states are violating the obligation to prevent genocide or could even at some point be considered complicit in acts of genocide or other violations of international law,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin who has previously worked at the ICJ, told Al Jazeera.These countries are finding it harder to plead ignorance. In a leaked recording on Saturday, Alicia Kearns, a Conservative member who is the chair of the UK parliament’s foreign affairs committee, is heard saying that UK government lawyers have advised that Israel has breached international humanitarian law, but the British government has not announced it.Kearns stood by the comments when later asked.According to Charles Falconer, former UK lord chancellor, if the British government concedes that Israel has violated international law, it will have no choice but to stop sharing intelligence with Israel.A spokesperson for the UK foreign ministry stated that advice on Israel’s adherence to international humanitarian law remained under review and that: “Ministers act in accordance with that advice, for example when considering export licenses.”Specific legal advice to the government was confidential, they said. A leading British barrister, however, warned that the UK and other countries will be fearful of any future legal culpability. “All governments have teams of lawyers providing constant advice on who they are exporting weapons to,” Geoffrey Nice, who led the prosecution of Slobodan Milosevic, told Al Jazeera. “It’s inconceivable that the advice the British government has received [on events in Gaza] is materially different from that other countries have received.” “If we ever reach the point of a criminal hearing into the conduct of this war, as I expect we may, you’ll see many of the larger countries who are now backing Israel doing everything they can to prevent Israeli witnesses taking the stand to say, we were acting with their consent as they provided the arms.”

As Strikes Escalate, 100,000 Estimated to Have Fled from South Lebanon - Near daily strikes in southern Lebanon have sent a large portion of the population fleeing deeper into the country. Just a few weeks ago, 90,000 residents were estimated as being displaced, but reports are now that fully 100,000 people of the region’s 150,000 have fled.Since the strikes started in October, some 313 have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded. But the longer-term impact, however, may be the economic damage to the region’s farming.Attacks have destroyed some 800 hectares (8 million square meters) of farmland. Between this and population displacement, nearly 75% of the residents in the area have lost their ability to earn a living by farming.Prime Minister Najib Mikati says the government must declare the south of the country to be an agricultural disaster zone.While the government has promised to compensate those whose homes were damaged in the strikes, there is no number as to how many homes will be included. Early estimates put it “in the thousands.” This large number is a clear result of Israel striking “Hezbollah buildings” that almost invariably turn out to be houses in small villages.

As Attacks Escalate, Israel DM Looks To Prepare Public for Lebanon War - Israeli Army Chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has reportedly signed off on a plan to launch a major war on the country’s northern front with Lebanon. This comes amid growing escalation of Israeli attacks and a palpable sense that diplomatic efforts are not gaining much momentum in avoiding the conflict.Lt. Gen. Halevi had ordered plans prepared last month, and reportedly held an assessment with northern commander Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin in which they both decided that the plan was appropriate.Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is reportedly having his staff work on various proposals for gearing up the general public for an “all-out” military conflict with Hezbollah, and ominously enough, for the possibility of war with Iran.The goal, according to reports, is to “raise awareness” of the possibility of a war, even if one is not imminent, and “Not to panic, but to raise awareness.” Israel Home Front Command has long been preparing for sheltering civilians in the north in the event the conflict breaks out.Embarking on a PR campaign to raise awareness about a northern war in Lebanon signals further escalation on the road to war. The public is being advised of upcoming conflict.DM Gallant is reportedly interested in making this campaign work quickly but is also worried about how Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah might react if Israel starts raising awareness for the invasion into Lebanon’s south.Nasrallah has long downplayed the threat of an Israeli invasion, saying he does not believe Israel is prepared for another full-scale war in Lebanon while it is in the middle of a war in the Gaza Strip.

What Really Happened on October 7? - Maureen Tkacik - It’s October 7, 2023, a few minutes before 7 a.m. A gang of Hamas fighters in a stolen pickup drives up upon a roadside bomb shelter crammed with maybe two dozen terrified ravers. One shoots off maybe seven bullets into the shelter, when another concocts a different plan. “That one is alive! That one, pull him by his hair!” he yells at his comrades, who dump a blood-streaked body into the back of the truck. “Don’t kill them, we need them as hostages,” the fighter yells at the others, as if he has just remembered, a dozen dead bodies too late, what he was supposed to do in the unthinkable circumstance he hadn’t been shot dead yet. They begin piling partygoers, limp but still alive, into the truck. The footage is from the body camera of a dead Hamas fighter obtained by Al Jazeera International, whose journalists Israel has repeatedly assassinated and which the Netanyahu government has been threatening to shutter for the past five months for allegedly “acting as [a] megaphone for Hamas’s military, operational, and propaganda messages.” But the Qatari investigative news agency’s new documentary October 7, which premiered this morning on YouTube, seems distinctly disinterested in preaching to the anti-Zionist choir. The Hamas portrayed in Al Jazeera’s tightly curated selection of footage swiftly disables the radar and communications towers, breaches the border fence, and seizes a dozen military bases—“We went into every corner and with our pure feet we stepped into every single hiding place, and there were no men to fight us,” one remarks, dumbfounded—only to spend the rest of the morning wandering around aimlessly, like a video game kid who doesn’t know what to do with himself now that he’s finally beaten the game. “They really don’t seem to know what exactly what they’re doing,” a military analyst observes, watching two fighters squabble with one another and raid the corpse of a dead colleague for extra ammunition. Whatever is responsible for the eerie, implausible absence of meaningful Israeli military resistance in the early hours of the attack—and October 7 echoes earlier reports in speculating that misogyny likely played a role—it does not seem to be the strategic genius of Hamas.The Israeli regime and its noxious mouthpieces in Washington have spouted so many lies about what Hamas did on October 7 that the conversation is often driven toward rebutting the charges that the group “beheaded 30 babies” or sliced a four-month-old fetus out of a dead woman, or gouged the eyes and breast out of a mother and father before moving on to the fingers and toes of the son and daughter they executed at an invaded kibbutz, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken testified before Congress in the weeks after the attack.But as October 7 shows, just because those claims were false doesn’t mean Hamas covered themselves in glory. They left a pile of dead bodies on the Nova festival stage before swiping what looked like a doughnut from a gas station convenience store, firing semiautomatic weapons randomly into car windows and port-a-potties, and killing more than three dozen Thai guest workers, though one who describes to Al Jazeera being dragged past a room full of his murdered colleagues suggests Gazan civilians led his particular abduction. “Hamas fighters committed crimes on October 7,” the narrator points out. “The Israeli media, however, focuses not on the crimes Hamas committed, but on crimes they did not.”Indeed, it is almost as though the Israelis channeled all of the efficiency and efficacy that failed their military on October 7 into the deployment of a vast edifice of insta-mythology designed to bolster a notion of Palestinians as an inherently subhuman people. Chief of this project is a man named Yossi Landau, an ultra-Orthodox first responder who operates throughout Israel and, occasionally, in South Florida. Landau, who is interviewed in the documentary, was the original source of the beheaded babies lie, and most of what formed the basis for the New York Times’debunked investigation into the alleged systematic sexual abuse perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, among other enthusiastically shared tales of horror.In interviews, Landau comes off like the used-car salesman you’d expect. Discussing one claim about finding a pregnant woman whose “stomach was butchered open” and whose “baby that was connected to the cord was stabbed,” he insists to a reporter that “if you want to see the picture I have the picture of it.” When the reporter apologizes that he “can’t see a baby here,” Landau stammers that he “didn’t think when we were, we didn’t think, we didn’t think to camera everything …”The photo, it turns out, depicts what the narrator describes as “an unidentifiable piece of charred flesh,” which as it happens is not so unlike many of the bodies that fill Landau’s accounts of unspeakable depravity. “The bodies is telling us the stories that happened to them,” he explains in one video. As October 7 notes, the IDF has repeatedly debunked those stories on the basis of basic forensic evidence, most notably when it revised downward by 200 its estimated body count upon realizing some of the dead bodies are Palestinian.Which brings us to one of the incomprehensibly less-scrutinized parts of the disaster explored in October 7: the hundreds of civilians, dozens of their cars, and numerous homes and buildings charred beyond comprehension on the day of the attack. Hamas had some rockets, but did it really have the weaponry capable of mounting this level of destruction? Western journalists have reported that Hamas was fully responsible. Al Jazeera’s documentary is much more circumspect, and in a way, so is the IDF.

US and UK Have Bombed Yemen 148 Times Since January - At least 148 missile strikes have hit Yemen since the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in January, according to the Yemen Data Project (YDP). YDP said in the first 80 days of the US-led bombing campaign that started on January 12, a total of 339 munitions have hit Yemen, averaging more than four per day. The UK has joined the US in several rounds of missile strikes, but most have been unilateral US attacks on Houthi-controlled Yemen.YDP said there was a drop in strikes in March, with 35 recorded, compared with 79 in February. The group said there were no reports of civilian casualties in March after 11 were recorded in February.Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in March that a total of 34 Houthi fighters had been killed since the Yemeni group, officially known as Ansar Allah, began targeting Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea last year in response to the onslaught in Gaza.The US-British bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Red Sea attacks and has only escalated the situation as the Houthis began targeting American and British shipping in response. In January, President Biden acknowledged the bombing wasn’t “working” but vowed to continue anyway.The Houthis have been clear that the only way they would stop targeting Israel-linked shipping is if the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza comes to an end. But the US chose escalation instead of pressuring the Israelis to stop by leveraging military aid.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the group only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.

Rising global threats force ‘epoch-making’ shift in world order The return of great power competition across the globe is forcing countries to adapt, spurring major changes to alignment and spending from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. The change is everywhere on the map — but most evident in countries like Sweden and Japan as the nations make dramatic changes to meet rising threats from Russia and China. “I’ve described the security environment as the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” said U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, head of Indo-Pacific Command, before the House Armed Services Committee this month. The rise of new tensions has driven up defense spending worldwide. In an annual report this year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies found defense spending was up 9 percent worldwide last year, reaching $2.2 trillion. In a breakdown by country, a majority of nations increased defense spending from 2021 to 2023. European countries collectively drove spending up from about $350 billion in 2021 to more than $388 billion in 2023, while Asian nations bumped that from more than $500 billion to higher than $510 billion in the same time frame. The spending bumps go hand-in-hand with public opinion. A November Ipsos poll of 30 countries found 84 percent of people believe the world is becoming more dangerous, up from 74 percent in 2018 (the poll was conducted before the Israel-Hamas war). “I don’t think we’re days away from World War III, but I do think that the world is becoming more unstable,” said Joseph Shelzi, an analyst at the Soufan Group, a global security and intelligence firm. “There’s a higher risk now, like peer adversaries engaging in high intensity conflict. We see that playing out now in Ukraine, and we see the possibility for that to play out in the streets of Taiwan.”