natural gas output at a 15 week low; record withdrawal from Strategic Petroleum Reserve; gasoline imports at 18 month low

US oil prices rose for the third time in four weeks after Trump rejected Iran’s peace terms and said the Mideast ceasefire was on life support….after falling 6.4% to $95.42 a barrel last week after Trump pivoted to peace proposals in an attempt to push prices down after US gasoline prices hit a four year high, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for June delivery jumped $3 a barrel as Asian markets opened on Monday, as the United States and Iran failed to agree to a peace proposal drafted by Washington, while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, keeping global energy supplies tight, and w​a​s up nearly 5% across international markets after US President Trump rejected Iran’s most recent reply to Washington’s peace proposal, describing it as “totally unacceptable” amid escalating Middle East tensions, and continued to trend higher in New York after Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. peace proposal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with no end in sight to the war, and settled $2.65 higher at $98.07 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support"….oil prices again surged more than 3% during Asian trading Tuesday, after renewed uncertainty in negotiations between the United States and Iran raised concerns over global supply stability and put geopolitical risk back into focus, and remained elevated after JPMorgan analysts said global crude oil prices were likely to remain in the low $100s for an extended period, due to persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks, and settled oil $4.11 higher at $102.18 a barrel, as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the war in the Middle East raised concerns that supply disruptions upending the ‌global oil market were likely to be prolonged….oil prices fell on Asian markets on Wednesday, as traders awaited developments involving the fragile Middle East ceasefire, and braced for a high-stakes summit in ‌China between U.S. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, but held ​onto early gains in US trading after the EIA reported a bigger than expected drawdown in US crude stocks and the largest drop in US Strategic Petroleum Reserves on record, but slid for the rest of the session to settle $1.16 lower at $101.02 a barrel, as traders worried about possible U.S. interest rate hikes and awaited updates on the summit in Beijing between President Trump ‌and China's Xi Jinping….oil prices inched higher on Asian markets early Thursday, as traders ​adapted a wait-and-watch mode ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later that day, then turned lower after Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels recently had crossed thru the Strait of Hormuz, while the semi-official Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing ​Hormuz transit for some Chinese vessels, and edged still lower in New York after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, before settling into a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and ending 15 cents higher at at $101.17 a barrel, as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted oil prices….oil prices jumped more than 3 percent early Friday as attacks on one ship and the seizure of another around the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns about energy supplies, and held those gains across global markets after U.S. President Trump said his patience with Iran ​w​as running out, adding to concerns over the lack of progress on a peace deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz, and were trading more than 4% higher in early US trading after comments from President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz, and settled $4.25 higher at $105.42 a barrel on fears the US and Iran would soon return to combat to settle their differences, and were thus up 10.5% for the week..

US natural gas prices, meanwhile, finished higher for the second time in three weeks, as production from US wells fell to a 15 week low and as the forecast for the season’s first heat wave led to expectations of ​the onset of air conditioning demand…after falling 0.8% to $2.757 per mmBTU last week on mild weather forecasts and lower LNG demand, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery opened 7.7 cents higher early Monday on developments in the Middle East and​ on pockets of scorching heat in the domestic forecast, then trended higher through midday as traders looked ahead to stronger cooling demand, the potential for another bullish storage print​, and increased global energy prices as the war in Iran dragged on, and settled 15.3 cents higher at $2.910 per mmBTU, as short covering emerged to push prices higher, even as the sustainability of the gains remained in question amid weak shoulder season demand….June natural gas opened 5.3 lower Tuesday, and fell to $2.814 at 10:15AM, as traders continued to assess bearish fundamentals, storage and production, against warming weather forecasts and uncertainty in the Middle East, and settled 6.7 cents lower at 2.843 per mmBTU on forecasts for less demand than previously expected, ample amounts of fuel in storage and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants during their usual spring maintenance season….natural gas prices opened 8.0 cents higher on Wednesday and recorded the intraday high of $2.927 within minutes of the opening, then pulled back to find a stable range, as bearish domestic fundamentals were set against geopolitical uncertainty, and settled 2.1 cents higher at 2.864 per mmBTU on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and on declining output over recent days, as low prices had prompted producers like EQT to cut production…natural gas prices opened 5.3 lower Thursday and traded at $2.810 ahead of the weekly ​s​torage report, then found support from the as-expected storage injection and rose through the morning to cross midday at $2.892, before stalling to settle 3.0 cents higher at $2.894 per mmBTU after US gas output dropped to 15-week low, led by production declines in Pennsylvania and Arkansas…. natural gas futures climbed early Friday, as traders looked to summer heat on the horizon and long-term structural demand boosts from LNG and data centers, then pushed higher into midday as traders looked for fundamental support beyond hotter late May weather forecasts, and settled 6.6 cents higher at $2.960 per mmBTU as warmer weather forecasts lifted expectations for stronger cooling demand, leaving natural gas prices 7.4% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending May 8th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 85 billion cubic feet to 2,290 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 51 billion cubic feet, or 2.3% above the 2,239 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on May 8th of last year, and 140 billion cubic feet, or 6.5% above the five-year average of 2,150 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 8th of May over the most recent five years….the 85 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was in line with the 85 billion cubic foot injection into storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, but it was much less than the 109 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, while still in line with the average 84 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early May week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 8th indicated that after an increase in our oil exports and an increase in our refinery demand, we again pulled oil out of our stored crude supplies for the fifth time in twelve weeks, and for 25th time in fifty weeks, despite modest increases on our oilfield production and out oil imports….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 424,000 barrels per day to 5,901,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 273,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 742,000 barrels per day to 5,492,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 409,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending May 8th, an average of 318,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week (when our oil exports were greater than our imports for the first time since 1944)... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 101,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 492,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 137,000 barrels per day higher at 13,710,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 14,611,000 barrels per day during the May 8th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,399,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 8th, an average of 369,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 1,844,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending May 8th averaged a rounded 56,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -56,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Since 60,000 barrels per day of oil  supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 116,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore not very useful.... But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 1,844,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 615,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while a record 1,229,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventh consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR and the largest in SPR history, following a nearly continuous string of weekly additions to the SPR from September 2023 to February 2026, which had followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 5,801,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1.0% more than the 5,746,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 137,000 barrels per day higher at 13,710,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 134,000 barrels per day higher at 13,290,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 420,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.7% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.3% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 91.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,399,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 8th, up from 90.1% the prior week, with the recent lower refinery utilization rate likely due to temporary shutdowns for seasonal maintenance, as refineries were being reconfigured to produce summer blends of fuel at this time of year….the 16,399,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was virtually unchanged from the 16,401,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending May 9th of 2025, while it was 1.7% less than the 16,676,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending May 10th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 90.5%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 222,000 barrels per day to 9,785,000 barrels per day during the week ending May 8th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 275,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 3.4% more than the 9,383,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending May 9th of last year, but 1.3% less than the gasoline production of 9,912,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending May 10th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 124,000 barrels per day to 4,916,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 24,000 during the prior week.  After those production decreases, our distillates output was still 4.6% more than the 4,581,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending May 9th of 2025, but 9.0% less than the 5,264,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending May 10th, 2019....

Even after this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the thirteenth week in a row, decreasing by 4084,000 barrels to 215,711,000 barrels during the week ending May 8th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,504,000barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by more this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 59,000 barrels per day to 8,754,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline fell by 452,000 barrels per day to a​n 18 month low of 303,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 192,000 barrels per day to 1,048,000 barrels per day…  After forty-four gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-five weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.0% lower than last May 9th’s gasoline inventories of 224,706,000 barrels, and about 5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

However, after this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates rose for the fourteenth time in twenty-six weeks, increasing by 190,000 barrels to 102,534,000 barrels during the week ending May 8th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,294,000 barrels to a twenty-one year low during the prior week… Our distillates supplies rose this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 66,000 barrels to 3,428,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 310,000 barrels per day to 1,551,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 91,000 barrels per day to 214,000 barrels per day... After 23 additions to distillates inventories over the past 44 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 1.0% lower than the 103,553,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on May 9th of 2025, and about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after an increase in our oil exports and an increase in refinery demand, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 24th time over the past year, decreasing by 4,306,000 barrels over the week, from 457,182,000 barrels on May 1st to 452,876,000 barrels on May 8th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 2,313,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were “about 0.3% below” the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while were about 32% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of May over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have been less extreme since, and as of this May 8th were 2.5% above the 441,830,000 barrels of oil in commercial storage on May 9th of 2025, but were 0.9% less than the 457,020,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 10th of 2024, and were 3.2% less than the 467,624,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on May 12th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by three over the week ending May 15th, as the count of rigs targeting oil was up by five, the number of rigs targeting natural gas was down by one, and miscellaneous rigs were also down by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 15th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (8th) and this week’s (May 15th) count, the third column shows last week’s May 8th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 16th of May, 2025…

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Ascent 1Q Profit Swings $658M, Utica Output Tops 2.1 Bcfe/d - Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, formerly American Energy Partners, was founded by Aubrey McClendon and is a privately held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter 2026 update last week. First quarter net production averaged 2,132 MMcfe/d, consisting of 1,838 MMcf/d of natural gas, 11,500 bbls per day of oil, and 37,589 bbls per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 14% of the overall production mix for the quarter.

Utica Shale Academy receives $50000 award from Future Forward Schools program - The Future Forward Schools program, led by national non-profits Building Hope and Britebound, selected five schools from around the country to receive $250,000 for helping students from under-resourced communities. Utica Shale Academy in Salineville was selected out of a pool of over 150 applicants, and underwent a lengthy selection process involving multiple stages of judging, interviews and applications. Christine Mentis, the director of the Future Forward Schools program at Building Hope, said the Utica stood out to her because of the way they use their resources to help students to be successful. “They understand the community, and they understand the needs within their community. They are creating a program that not only allows for kids to do blended learning online, but also to get the skills where they can work straight out of high school, right there in the community and not having to leave to have fulfilling careers,” Mentis said. With the award money, Superintendent William Watson said the school will see new opportunities in a mechanics program, and plans to purchase a snap on tire changer to help students learn to change tires. He also noted that they will work towards getting students credentialed. Watson also explained that with the mechanics program also comes an opportunity for the students and staff at the school to generate a self-circulating economy, by servicing the vehicles of the community and other students and staff at the school. “In Appalachia, transportation is one of the biggest barriers to success. Any time that you can have the student population tackle a barrier to success themselves is a win for everyone,” Watson said. In addition to the program expansion, Watson plans to use the funds to upgrade the schools vehicles.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its first quarter 2026 financial and operating results. First Quarter 2026 & Recent Highlights

• Completed the transformative $1.2 billion acquisition of upstream and midstream assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream in Ohio (the “Antero Acquisition”) and the acquisition from Chase Oil Corp to increase our working interest in Pennsylvania
• Completed upsized offering of $550 million of 7.625% Senior Notes due 2031
• Completed $350 million strategic equity investment from Quantum Capital Group and Carnelian Energy Capital
• Delivered 88% growth in total net daily production to 299.3 MMcfe/d in the first quarter 2026 compared to the first quarter 2025
• Completed and placed four oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale into sales in the first quarter totaling approximately 53,000 lateral feet
• Increased natural gas net production 169% in the first quarter 2026 compared to first quarter 2025
• Narrowed net loss to $6.3 million or $0.45 per share during the first quarter 2026 compared to a net loss of $2.27 per share during the first quarter 2025
• Delivered 70% growth in Adjusted EBITDAX (1) to $97.3 million in the first quarter 2026 compared to the first quarter 2025, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin (1) of $3.61 / Mcfe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
• Acquired approximately 44,000 net surface acres through acquisitions and approximately 1,285 net surface acres through organic leasing efforts during the quarter
• Generated $58.4 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter
• Incurred $111.5 million of development capital expenditures, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
• Total net debt (1) was approximately $477.0 million and total liquidity was $928.8 million as of March 31, 2026

Iran conflict may improve odds of Shell deal for Pennsylvania PE complex -  Shell plc says it is moving ahead with plans to pursue a possible sale or partnership for its Pennsylvania polyethylene complex as the Iran conflict reshapes global energy and petrochemical markets.

PA Antis Demand DEP Redo Shale Cuttings in Landfill Report --Marcellus Drilling News - In March, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) released the results of a two-year study that found radium levels in landfill wastewater (leachate) from landfills with drill cuttings do NOT pose a risk to human health (see PA DEP Report: Leachate from Landfills with Shale Cuttings Safe). Real science like this doesn’t fit the narrative of the leftist environmental movement, which hews to political science rather than real science. So, some of the worst of the worst Big Green groups have banded together to demand that the DEP redo the study, and this time produce a result that they want. Read More

Anti-Fossil Fuelers Trash Talk Homer City Pipeline at DEP Hearing --Marcellus Drilling News -- At a Pennsylvania DEP hearing in Indiana County, environmental extremists opposed a proposed 5.8-mile, 30-inch natural gas pipeline serving Homer City Redevelopment’s planned $10 billion, 4.5-GW gas-fired power plant and hyperscale data center campus. The pipeline would cross streams, wetlands, and floodways, potentially affecting Muddy Run, Blacklick Creek, and various tributaries. Reminding us of Chicken Little in The Sky is Falling, speakers warned of water pollution, setbacks to acid mine drainage restoration, drought-related water stress, and inadequate transparency around the fast-moving project

PA DEP Denies Road Permit for PGE Shale Pad in Loyalsock Forest --Marcellus Drilling News - Last December, MDN told you that three anti-shale drilling groups—the PA Council of Trout Unlimited, the Keystone Trails Association, and the Responsible Drilling Alliance—requested the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) hold a hearing on the Chapter 105 permit requested for a 3.9-mile shale gas access road and staging area proposed by Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) in the Loyalsock State Forest (see PA Antis Want DEP Hearing on 3.9-Mile Rd to Shale Pad in Loyalsock). The antis kept up the pressure. They squawked a lot during a DEP virtual public hearing in February (see Antis Flood PA DEP Hearing Against Drilling in Loyalsock Forest). The hearing focused on the Chapter 105 water-quality permit for PGE’s proposal to construct an access road. Congratulations to the crazies: They succeeded

EOG Resources: Q1 2026 earnings beat with strong cash flow and production growth - EOG Resources has reported first quarter 2026 results that topped analyst expectations, driven by stronger crude oil, natural gas liquids and gas volumes, favorable derivative results and solid operating margins across its U.S. shale portfolio. The company posted net income of about $1.98 billion on total operating revenue of roughly $6.92 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.41, above consensus estimates of around $3.02–$3.23 per share, according to earnings summaries and market data providers.  Operating cash flow rose to about $2.97 billion, funding roughly $1.60 billion of exploration and development spending, a regular quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share and around $402 million in share repurchases. Free cash flow reached about $1.5 billion, and the company returned nearly $950 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, underscoring its focus on disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns.

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 4 – 10 --Marcellus Drilling News -- The Marcellus/Utica region received 22 new drilling permits last week, May 4 – 10, up from the 19 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 10 of last week’s permits. Ohio issued 8 new permits. West Virginia issued 4 new permits last week. The drillers who received new permits included: Ascent Resources, EOG Resources, EQT (including subsidiary Rice Drilling), Expand Energy, and Northeast Natural Energy. Ascent Resources | Bradford County | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Harrison County | Monongalia County | Noble County | Northeast Natural Energy

US Shale Crescent Region Offers To Derisk India's LPG Supplies - Deccan Chronicle - Three US states -- collectively called the Shale Crescent region -- with large natural gas reserves are seeking new investments from around the world, said a senior official from Shale Crescent USA. “The Shale Crescent region consists of Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. It is home to one of the world's largest natural gas reserves. It offers an excellent advantage to the investors,” said Greg Kozera, director (marketing), Shale Crescent USA, during the 2026 SelectUSA Investment Summit. Also Read - US Plans To Indict Cuba's Raul Castro, US DOJ Official Says Advertisement The Shale Crescent region sits atop the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, which together account for 85 per cent of new natural gas supply. Kozera, however, said the companies need to establish liquefaction plants to convert the national gas into liquefied natural gas for shipping abroad. The natural gas price in the Shale Crescent region is priced at $3.21 MMBtu, compared to $1.50 - $2.50 in Qatar. However, in the wake of the Iran crisis, the total landed cost of one MMBtu of liquefied natural gas in India from the Shale Crescent region is expected to $10 to $11 compared to around $12 to $14 from West Asia. Also Read - Trump, Xi Agreed Strait of Hormuz Must Remain Open: White House According to data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India needs 33.1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of LPG. Of this, nearly 40 per cent or 12.8 MMT is produced domestically. The rest of the 60 per cent or 20 million metric tonnes of LPG is imported from West Asia, which is reeling under the war. As West Asia remains a volatile region geopolitically, experts believe that the diversification of natural gas procurement could provide strategic stability to India and protect Indian kitchens from the vagaries of any one region. Also Read - Musk, Cook Invited To Join Trump On Trip To China Since India is the second largest consumer of LPG after China, the government could seek long-term contracts with a fixed price. Though the landed price of the US gas would be more than that of West Asia, the average price of the overall LPG from different sources could be manageable for India, especially in view of the strategic autonomy that it offers to the world’s most populous country.

Phila. Gas Works’ Proposed LNG Plant Replacement Still in Limbo --Marcellus Drilling News -- The Philadelphia Gas Commission, for a second time, has postponed a vote on Philadelphia Gas Works’ (PGW) $182 million proposal to replace and expand its natural gas liquefier (LNG plant) in Port Richmond. The commission’s staff and the Public Advocate recommend rejecting the project, arguing it is oversized and could burden customers with unnecessary debt. They also cite incomplete plant and project designs. PGW argues the upgrade is crucial for safety and affordability, preventing potential harm to customers during cold winters and avoiding the need to truck in liquefied natural gas (LNG). Instead of approving the project, the Commission voted to spend $1 million on an environmental impact study and $4 million for an engineering study. That is, they voted to procrastinate.

NFG Expands Line N as Seneca Marcellus/Utica Output Slips --Marcellus Drilling News -  National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is an integrated natural gas company with a regulated utility business, a shale drilling business (Seneca Resources), and a pipeline business (NFG Midstream, Empire Pipeline). The company issued its fiscal second quarter update two weeks ago, which is everyone else’s calendar first quarter update. The good news is that NFG is upgrading its Line N natural gas pipeline to carry an additional 94,000 Dth/d (90 MMcf/d) of Marcellus/Utica shale gas. The bad news is that Seneca produced 102.0 Bcf of natural gas, a decrease of 3.5 Bcf, or 3%, from the prior year, largely due to weather-driven completion delays and “typical natural gas production declines on producing wells.”

Northeast Natural Gas Market is Poised for a Reawakening --Marcellus Drilling News -- May According to RBN Energy, the Northeast natural gas market is entering a new phase after years of stalled pipeline development and Appalachian takeaway constraints. Once a premium destination for Gulf Coast and Canadian gas, the region became a major supplier as Marcellus/Utica production surged, reversing flows toward the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Recent legal, regulatory, and cost hurdles have frozen major projects, with the Mountain Valley Pipeline serving as both a milestone and a warning. Now, under a friendlier regulatory climate, new expansions toward New York/New Jersey and New England are advancing.

Enbridge Briefed Trump Admin on Plan to Expand Pipe into New England --Marcellus Drilling News -  Enbridge is exploring a major expansion of its Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline into New England, a move sure to inflame environmental extremists. According to super-secret sources blabbing to E&E News, the company briefed the Trump administration’s National Energy Dominance Council and potential buyers about the project. Details remain preliminary and undisclosed. The proposal comes as Democratic governors in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island face pressure over high energy costs while pursuing nutty climate goals.

Old Hippies Protest Connecticut DEEP HQ re Iroquois Compressor --Marcellus Drilling News - The Iroquois Gas Transmission’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project will increase horsepower at three compression stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, to flow more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. The NY Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) approved the permits for the NY compressors with the condition that Iroquois pays a $1.5 million “contribution” (we call it a bribe) to the “Disadvantaged Community Benefit Program” (see NY DEC Approves Iroquois Pipe Expansion…With $1.5M “Contribution”). The only remaining holdup is a permit from the CT Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) for the Brookfield compressor, which has been on hold since June of last year (see Iroquois Pipe Expansion Close to Construction, Waiting on CT Permit). A handful of old hippies staged a sit-in at DEEP headquarters on Monday to protest the compressor station.

Residents concerned about proposed natural gas pipeline A heated meeting took place as residents and Shelby County magistrates raised concerns about a proposed high-pressure natural gas pipeline that may cut through their backyards. Residents filled the fiscal court meeting room to hear from Texas Gas representatives about the 264-mile pipeline routed to run from Ohio to Kentucky. "There will be people impacted; we’re very much aware of that," said Texas Gas representative Mike McMahon. "We are willing to work with people to try to make them feel comfortable." District Seven Magistrate Danny Eades asked several questions to the representatives on behalf of his constituents. He began by asking about eminent domain. McMahon responded that the company uses it only as a last resort. McMahon told the crowd that, typically, Texas Gas will purchase about 50 feet of easement from each property owner and will restore the right of way after construction. After the project is completed, Texas Gas asks property owners not to build within the pipeline right of way, but owners may farm and graze on top of the pipeline. Texas Gas Representatives say the route is not set in stone yet and that several public forums will be held, but dates have not been announced. Potential paths include parts of Shelby, Carroll and Trimble counties, avoiding Louisville and continuing west past Hardinsburg. If approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, construction could begin in 2028, with the pipeline operational by 2030. McMahon confirmed that Texas Gas does not need permission from the Fiscal Court or the state legislature to begin the project, but rather approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Local officials are concerned that they are just hearing about the proposed pipeline and that their hands are tied in the approval process. “I believe some type of public information should have been put out,” said Eades. Denise and Jerry Vandevelde, Shelby County residents who own property on the proposed pipeline route, recently received a letter from Texas Gas asking permission to survey their land. The Vandeveldes are especially concerned as the Mid-Valley Oil Pipeline already runs through their property. While they were aware of the existing pipeline when the property was purchased and accepted the restrictions that came along with it, they now fear the further restrictions that come with a new line and what the future holds if they ever decide to sell. The proposed route also places the pipeline close to the Vandeveldes' home. Representatives during the meeting said they are pushed by regulators to create the route as close as possible to other utilities and will work with the property owner on a solution. The Vandeveldes are also concerned about safety risks, including potential explosions and constant exposure. They worry the pipeline may cause their insurance rates to rise because they may now require additional coverage. The property also has a vast forest on one side. According to McMahon during the meeting, Texas Oil will only be responsible for restoring the 50-foot easement; any other restoration will be the property owner's responsibility. Vandevelde has also been told that no mention will be made in the contract to say that Texas Oil must cover property damages in the event of an explosion. “We are not against progress; however, we are protecting our homes, our community, and our land because we already have one pipeline and having another one isn't fair, and we are asking for fair treatment; we just want our voices heard and our home protected. I had questions, and all of them were not asked,” said Vandvelde.

Big Green Continues Smear Campaign Against Dominion SC Power Plant -Marcellus Drilling News -- In February 2024, members of the South Carolina Public Service Commission approved a proposed project to build a 2,200-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in the state’s Lowcountry, in Colleton County (see SC PSC Approves Gas-Fired Power Plant Proposed for Edisto River). The Canadys project is a 50/50 partnership between Dominion Energy (formerly South Carolina Electric & Gas) and Santee Cooper (South Carolina’s state-owned electric and water utility). As they have from the beginning, the two companies continue to defend the project against attacks by anti-fossil fuel groups. Big Green continues its PR and lawfare campaign against the project.

4th Circuit Judge Tells Antis to Post a $100M Bond to Block Pipe -Marcellus Drilling News - It seems that not all of the judges who sit on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (4th Circuit) are clowns, the way the three judges who oversee cases dealing with the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project are (see 4th Circus Clown Judges Badmouth MVP Southgate in Oral Arguments). Another major pipeline project that, in some senses, competes with Southgate, Williams’ Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE), is also being sued by Big Green to block it (see Big Green Sues to Cancel Water Permit for Transco SESE Project). The case is also before the 4th Circuit, where oral arguments were heard yesterday. The SESE case is being heard by three judges different from those hearing the Southgate case.

SC PSC Approves Duke/Santee Cooper 2.2 GW Gas-Fired Power Plant --Marcellus Drilling News - Good news! The Public Service Commission (PSC) of South Carolina approved a joint application by Dominion Energy and Santee Cooper to build Canadys Station, a natural gas combined-cycle facility in Colleton County. The plant will generate approximately 2,200 megawatts (2.2 GW) — enough to power over one million homes — addressing the state’s growing energy demand. It will be built on the site of a former Dominion Energy coal plant, roughly 40 miles northwest of Charleston (the “Lowcountry” region), eliminating the need for new land clearing.

Sen. Alan Armstrong: High Energy Costs Come from Lack of Pipelines --Marcellus Drilling News - Alan Armstrong, recently retired from his role of CEO at Williams, and the newly appointed U.S. Senator for Oklahoma (filling out the term of Markwayne Mullin, who left to become Secretary of Homeland Security), is already making his mark on the D.C. swamp. Armstrong is working on permitting reform. Along those lines, he published an op-ed appearing on The Hill website (required reading in the D.C. swamp). In his column, Sen. Armstrong argues that America’s high energy costs stem less from foreign conflict than from domestic infrastructure failures.

Venture Global Inks Another Short-Term LNG Supply from Growing Portfolio -- Venture Global said Tuesday it signed a third five-year LNG supply agreement and expanded another it inked in March as it looks to sell more of the super-chilled fuel for shorter terms. At a Glance:

• TotalEnergies signs five-year contract
• Venture promotes flexibility with deals
• Volumes sourced from multiple plants

Commonwealth LNG Gets Green Light as US LNG Boom Continues --Caturus on Friday sanctioned the $13 billion Commonwealth LNG project, saying construction on the 9.5 Mt/y export facility in Louisiana would start immediately. At a Glance:

• Abu Dhabi sovereign fund helps clinch FID
• Project under development for over a decade
• Four other greenfield projects being built

US LNG Feed Gas Flows Retreat From April Highs as Terminal Work Weighs on Demand -Near-term natural gas demand has continued to soften as maintenance events and extended commissioning weigh on feed gas nominations to US LNG terminals. NGI North America LNG export flow tracker shows US LNG deliveries near 16.8 million Dth/day led by Sabine Pass, Plaquemines terminals.  At a Glance:
Freeport outage cuts Texas flows
Corpus Christi nominations remain reduced
Feed gas falls below 17 Bcf/d

US natural gas prices dip on weak demand and high storage levels (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand than previously expected, ample amounts of fuel in storage and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants during the usual spring maintenance season. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.7 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $2.843 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract rose to its highest since March 27. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 67 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.6 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Output has declined in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, like EQT, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise in the future. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 4.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.9 bcfd. Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year. But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand from near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.4 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Wednesday on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and a decline in output in recent days. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.864 per million British thermal units. In the cash market, average gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 68 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. In the West, mild weather and ample hydropower supplies cut next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub in Oregon to their lowest since June 2022 and pushed spot power at South Path 15 in Southern California into negative territory for a ninth time this year. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.4 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas and Louisiana. Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, such as EQT, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise. Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year. But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand due to near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6.5% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 6.7% above normal during the week ended May 1. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 28. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.9 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.2 bcfd so far in May due in part to maintenance at several plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Cameron LNG in Louisiana.

US natgas prices edge up as output falls to 15-week low and demand rises (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday on a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.894 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added an expected, near-normal 85 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 8. That reading was in line with the 85-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, below the increase of 109 bcf during the same week last year and slightly above the five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 84 bcf for the period. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slid to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output is on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.1 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, such as EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production while waiting for prices to rise. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 99.2 bcfd this week and next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due in part to reductions at several plants, including Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was down even further and on track to drop to a 15-week low of 15.9 bcfd on Thursday.

Parched Corpus Christi threatens to cut off water to refineries - Refineries and petrochemical plants in Corpus Christi, Texas, could have their water access cut off by a local utility if an emergency is declared and they don’t slash their usage by 25 percent. Stopping service would be a last resort at industrial sites that go over proposed monthly water allotments and can’t cut back, Nick Winkelmann, chief operating officer of Corpus Christi Water, said Tuesday at a City Council meeting in the Texas refining hub. “If that case is happening and a resolution can’t occur, then we would have to start turning valves and shut the water off to those users,” Winkelmann said. The City Council is working to finalize water curtailment plans for all customers, but the prospect of cutting water off to industrial users in one of the country’s largest petrochemical and refining centers highlights the stark reality facing the Coastal Bend region of South Texas. The crisis also has the attention of leaders across the country as cities debate data centers and other projects that would boost water demand. Corpus Christi Water, which is overseen by the Corpus Christi City Council, serves roughly 500,000 customers across a seven-county region. The city could enter a Level 1 water emergency by September, Winkelmann said at a meeting last month — a threshold triggered when the region has 180 days before water demand outstrips supply. The region’s water supplies have been ravaged by a years-long drought and growing water demands from large industrial users. To lower that demand, Corpus Christi Water officials proposed last month to require 25 percent cuts for all water users if the city declares a Level 1 water emergency. Officials tabled that proposal, directing staff to come up with changes that were presented Tuesday. The Council could vote on whether to approve those new changes in the coming weeks. The outlook now for possible cuts looks different for residents and large industrial users. All residential customers were given a baseline water usage of 7,000 gallons of a month under the previously proposed rules, and the 25 percent cut meant that a household would essentially be allotted 5,250 gallons of water a month. Large industrial users, however, had their baseline water usages calculated based on their average water use from 2022 through 2024, and those baselines were adjusted seasonally, unlike residents. On Tuesday, the City Council voted 7-2 to move forward with a proposed ordinance that would increase residents’ baseline usage to 8,000 gallons a month, or an allotment of 6,000 gallons monthly based on the 25 percent cuts. But the calculations to determine industrial water use baselines remained the same. Changes approved on a preliminary basis Tuesday also removed steep penalties for residents that went over their water allotments. The city ordinance previously set a $500 fine for residents that violated the curtailments, and repeat offenders could have their water shut off for a billing cycle.

Mexico Natural Gas Imports Jump as Early Summer Heat Drives Cooling Demand - Mexico’s natural gas imports have started to ramp up as temperatures warm and cooling demand rises with the onset of summer. NGI chart comparing Agua Dulce, Waha natural gas prices with average US pipeline exports to Mexico from 2023-2026.   At a Glance:
Cross-border flows top 7.5 Bcf/d
May imports trail 2024 slightly
Mexican output stagnant

Coal Shipments Rise as Asian LNG Buyers React to Middle East War - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers.

• $18.54/MMBtu: Global shipments of coal for power generation saw a significant bump in April as major Asian natural gas buyers reacted to the extended war in the Middle East, according to Signal Ocean. The shipping analytics firms reported a 6% rise year/year in seaborn coal shipments to 115 Mt in April, driven by Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. In Japan, the world’s second largest buyer of LNG, coal-fired generation rose 17% on a 30-day moving-average while natural gas output fell 10%, according to utility data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil-linked LNG prices have risen by roughly $6/MMBtu, or more than 50%, since the war with Iran began in late February, with NGI calculations showing Brent-linked parity at $18.54 as of May 12 versus about $12 before the conflict.
• 5 LNG carriers: Malaysia’s Petronas has arranged to secure five LNG carriers under 20-year charters through an agreement with its subsidiary, MISC Group. The 174,000-cubic-meter vessels are expected to enter service in 2029 and 2030, which coincides with the ramp up of LNG Canada and potential decisions around a second phase. Petronas has disclosed plans to both focus growth of its domestic assets like Bintulu LNG, but also control a hefty global portfolio by the end of the decade.
• 3 cargos: Golden Pass LNG could ship its third LNG cargo by early June as another ship heads to the Texas facility. After a second loaded ship controlled by ExxonMobil left the terminal on Saturday (May 9), the Barzan controlled by QatarEnergy declared its destination for Golden Pass. The ship is currently rounding the Cape of Good Hope and is estimated to reach the Sabine-Neches Ship Channel by June 2, according to Kpler ship tracking data. Meanwhile, feed gas nominations to Golden Pass have dipped from 325-426 MMcf/d in early May to about 260 MMcf/d as of Wednesday, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data.
• 20%: US LNG exports are set to fall about 20% week/week in the week of May 11, according to predictive Kpler data, reflecting softer feed gas nominations and maintenance events weighing on output. The largest declines among named terminals were at Sabine Pass, which is expected to decline 0.19 Mt week/week. Calcasieu Pass and Corpus Christi, each down about 0.14 Mt from the week of May 4, are also expected to contribute to the decline.

LNG Canada Commissioning Progresses as Exports Rise, Flaring Continues - Exports from LNG Canada have continued to reach new milestones as first phase commissioning progresses, but flaring events also persist. At a Glance:

• April shipments topped 1 Mt
• More than 80 cargoes shipped
• Four May alerts issued to communities

When Will AECO Natural Gas Prices Find Support? RBN’s King Gives Clarity -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow featuring RBN Energy’s Martin King, managing director North America and NGI in a deep dive on the Canadian natural gas market. Western Canada is currently a land of stark contrasts: record natural gas production on one side, and a mountain of natural gas with nowhere to go on the other. As AECO basis remains wide, and storage levels continue to climb, Canada is bracing for a summer that looks increasingly volatile for local natural gas producers.King joins the podcast to dissect the structural gridlock currently defining AECO pricing. The discussion circles around why the market may be too optimistic about the coming months, the likelihood of prices slipping even more before the heating season, and how Shell’s acquisition of ARC Resources signals a “vote of confidence” in the basin despite the immediate price pain.

Natural Gas Market Facing Prolonged Supply Disruptions as US, Iran Remain at Odds -- Global commodity prices shot back up Monday as negotiations to end the Iran war continued to falter and the prospects for prolonged oil and natural gas shortages strengthened.

• US maintenance curbs output
• Heat drives Asian buying
• European demand weak

Hammerfest LNG Outage Tests Europe’s LNG Supply Cushion Norway’s Hammerfest LNG export plant is offline after an operational issue and could see several days of repairs as European buyers brace for a competitive summer storage-refilling season. At a Glance:

• Hammerfest outage tightens summer LNG balance
• U.S. LNG remains Europe’s backbone
• Asia competition could lift LNG premiums

Qatar Finally Exports LNG Shipments, but Has No Plans for Other Stranded Cargoes -- Qatar has shipped two LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week.The deliveries were the first since the Iran war started at the end of February, when QatarEnergy shut down liquefaction operations and halted shipping through the waterway, which has been closed by Iran. Two Qatari liquefaction trains have since been damaged by Iranian attacks.

Trinidad says oil spill adequately dealt with, despite concerns from Venezuela - Jamaica Observer– The Trinidad and Tobago government says it has dealt adequately with an oil spill that had been detected at the start of this month, even as Venezuela complained to the international community that the spill had caused environmental damage in the Gulf of Paria and along coastal areas of Sucre and Delta Amacuro. “Evaluations carried out by Venezuelan authorities show severe risks to mangroves, wetlands, marine fauna and strategic hydrobiological resources for food security and the ecological balance of the region. Likewise, impacts have been recorded on vulnerable species and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity,” Venezuela said in a statement over the weekend. The South American country said that it had instructed its foreign ministry to immediately request all pertinent information regarding the incident, as well as the corresponding action plan for the mitigation and containment of the spill, as it also demanded “compliance with the obligations established in international environmental law and the urgent adoption of reparation measures for the damage caused”. But in a statement, the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries (MEEI) said that the oil spill detected in the Main Field on May 1 was stopped on the same day, repaired and returned to service the following day. It said that Heritage Petroleum Company Limited (Heritage) had “instantly informed relevant regulatory authorities, including the MEEI, the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard, and the Environmental Management Authority (EMA) and that approval was granted by MEEI to use chemical dispersants. “An oil spill trajectory modelling was immediately conducted, which indicated that if left untreated the hydrocarbon material could cross the Trinidad/Venezuelan border in the Gulf of Paria. Immediately upon receiving the approval of the use of the chemical dispersant, it was deployed approximately six to eight 8 nautical miles from the Trinidad/Venezuelan border. “Visual observations confirmed that the dispersant effectively broke up the hydrocarbon. Follow-up inspections using both drones and vessels showed no visible hydrocarbons remaining on the water’s surface,” the MEEi said. It said that the spill was estimated to be 10 barrels of oil and that “daily inspections continue to be made within all operating fields offshore, which have revealed no spill incidents”.

Niger Delta communities demand accountability as oil pollution crisis deepens For nearly 70 years, communities in Nigeria’s Niger Delta have continued to bear the environmental and human cost of oil and gas exploration, even as the region remains the backbone of the nation’s economy. Environmental advocates and community leaders are now raising fresh concerns over what they describe as decades of unresolved pollution, abandoned oil infrastructure and the growing divestment of multinational oil companies from onshore operations without adequate remediation of damaged ecosystems. According to the Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), the Niger Delta remains one of the most polluted regions globally, with Nigeria recording at least 589 oil spills in 2024 alone, releasing an estimated 19,000 barrels of crude oil into the environment. The spills, environmentalists say, continue to destroy rivers, farmlands and mangrove forests while threatening livelihoods dependent on fishing and farming. Director of Programmes at HOMEF, Joyce Brown, in a statement ahead of the 2026 Niger Delta Alternatives Convergence (NDAC), lamented the devastating impact of pollution on local communities. She noted that beyond environmental degradation, oil pollution has worsened poverty, damaged public health and eroded the dignity of affected communities. “When we speak of environmental pollution, many tend to overlook the impact on the people. We do not easily think about the people whose farmlands are degraded and cannot produce crops or fisherfolk who return home with empty nets, people, including children, bathing and drinking contaminated water because that is the main source of water available to them,” she said. Brown cited studies linking oil spills in the region to respiratory illnesses, skin diseases, infertility, birth defects and increased infant mortality rates. Traditional rulers have also expressed concern over the continued environmental decline in the region. At the 2024 Niger Delta Alternatives Convergence organised by HOMEF and its partners, the Ibenanaowei of Ekpetiama Kingdom in Bayelsa State, King Bubaraye Dakolo, described the Niger Delta as “one of the most polluted places in the universe”, stressing that decades of oil extraction had altered the social and economic fabric of communities. Environmental groups further criticised what they termed the “hurried divestment” of oil companies from onshore assets without proper decommissioning of ageing infrastructure. They referenced a major spill along the Trans Niger Pipeline in B-Dere community, Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State, in May 2025, reported as the second major incident on the pipeline within two months. HOMEF and allied organisations warned that ageing pipelines and abandoned facilities remain major sources of recurring pollution across the Niger Delta. The group also raised concerns over continued pollution in Ogoniland, citing incidents in Kpean in August 2025 and Eteo-Eleme in June 2023, which reportedly destroyed farmlands, contaminated water sources and displaced residents. According to Brown, accountability must include the complete decommissioning of obsolete oil infrastructure, restoration of polluted environments and compensation for affected communities. “Accountability means that the people are duly compensated for their lost livelihoods, that binding obligations on the polluters are enforced, and that the era of extractivism without responsibility is brought to an end,” she said.

Oil spill contained after vessel sinking in Lami - MSAF - The Fiji Times - The Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji says the oil spill linked to the sinking of the MV Spirit of Altruism in Lami has been successfully contained. In a statement issued today, MSAF confirmed that monitoring and assessment activities had been completed following the sinking of the vessel on the fringes of Draunibota Bay. MSAF said it worked closely with Fiji Ports Corporation Limited and other relevant stakeholders to coordinate oil spill response measures after the incident. The vessel sank after sustaining damage during severe weather conditions earlier this week. MSAF said it had fulfilled its response and monitoring responsibilities relating to the incident and would continue liaising with stakeholders regarding the removal of the wreck. The incident had raised concerns over possible environmental impacts in the bay area, particularly relating to fuel and oil leakage. However, authorities said containment measures prevented further spread of pollutants into surrounding waters.

UAE-owned tanker leaks some fuel off Oman following Iranian strike  (Reuters) - A unit of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said on Wednesday that one of ‌its tankers struck by Iranian drones last week has leaked a small amount of fuel off the coast of Oman, underscoring the ecological risks stemming from the Iran war. Tehran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made navigating the vital shipping corridor a precarious task. Hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the Gulf. ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADNOCLS.AD), opens new tab said it was monitoring the situation ⁠concerning its vessel, the M.V. Barakah, and was working "closely with the relevant authorities and specialist response teams." "The ADNOC Logistics & Services vessel Barakah remains at anchor off the coast of Oman after being impacted by two Iranian drones on May 4," a company spokesperson said. "A small amount of what is understood to be bunker fuel was unfortunately released as a result of the incident." The spokesperson did not say how much fuel was believed to have leaked. At the time of the attack, ADNOC L&S said no crew members were injured and the tanker was not carrying any cargo. Oman's Maritime ‌Security ⁠Centre did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Aerial images from Copernicus' Sentinel satellites on May 7 and 9 showed a white streak trailing from a vessel identified by TankerTrackers.com as the M.V. Barakah near Oman's Musandam Peninsula. "The white trail ... is definitely consistent with oil and is clearly coming out of the ⁠tanker," said Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, which focuses on climate and commodities. The slick was no longer visible in more recent imagery, Elizabeth C. Atwood, Earth observation senior scientist at Plymouth Marine Laboratory, told ⁠Reuters. Separately last week, satellite images showed a suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometres of sea near Iran's main oil hub of Kharg Island. Iran's top environmental official said on Tuesday ⁠it was likely caused by a tanker dumping waste water and not a leak from oil facilities.

Oil spill in Gulf likely caused by tanker dump, Iranian official says (Reuters) - Iran's top environmental official said on Tuesday that a suspected oil spill in the Gulf near Iran's Kharg Island was likely caused by ‌a tanker dumping waste water and not a leak from oil facilities. The suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometres of sea near Iran's main oil hub of Kharg Island has been seen ⁠on satellite imagery. The likely spill - appearing on images as a grey and white slick - covered waters to the west of the 8-kilometre (5-mile) long island, pictures from Copernicus’s Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 satellites showed on May 6-8. But Iranian Vice-President Shina Ansari said: "Our monitoring results show that this spill was caused by the discharge of ballast water ‌contaminated ⁠with substances from a non-Iranian tanker, and no oil leaks have been reported from (Iran's) pipelines or oil facilities," state media reported. Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, which focuses on ⁠climate and commodities, said earlier that the images likely showed an oil slick, which he said was potentially the largest ⁠to occur since the start of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran 70 days ago. Iran’s Oil Terminals Company said on Sunday ⁠inspections had found no evidence of leaks from storage tanks, pipelines, loading facilities or tankers operating near the island.

OPEC Output Plunges After Hormuz Disruption - WANA – The latest monthly report by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) paints an unprecedented picture of turmoil in the global oil market, with crude production collapsing across major producers following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report released on May 13, 2026, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell by 651,000 barrels per day in April, reaching 6.316 million barrels per day — the kingdom’s lowest production level since the 1990 Persian Gulf War. Secondary-source data cited by OPEC showed Saudi output declining from 7.726 million barrels per day in March to 6.768 million in April. Since the start of the Iran war in February 2026, Saudi production has dropped by roughly 42 percent. The decline was not limited to Saudi Arabia. Total production from OPEC’s 12 member states fell sharply to 18.983 million barrels per day in April, compared with 20.710 million in March and 28.65 million in February. Energy analysts described the figures as OPEC’s lowest production level in 35 years. Combined output from the wider OPEC+ alliance also dropped by 1.74 million barrels per day month-on-month, reaching 33.19 million barrels per day. Kuwait recorded one of the steepest declines among member states. Its oil production plunged to around 600,000 barrels per day in April, less than a quarter of its pre-war level. OPEC data showed Kuwaiti production had stood at 1.16 million barrels per day in March and 2.582 million in February, meaning the country has lost more than 75 percent of its production capacity within two months. The organization also revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026. OPEC now expects world oil demand to increase by 1.17 million barrels per day this year to 106.3 million barrels per day, around 200,000 barrels lower than its previous estimate. At the same time, OPEC raised its outlook for 2027, forecasting global demand to rise by 1.54 million barrels per day next year to 107.9 million barrels per day. The report comes amid a historic development inside the organization itself, as United Arab Emirates officially announced it would leave OPEC starting May 2026 after nearly six decades of membership, following prolonged disputes with Saudi Arabia over production quotas. Analysts say the UAE’s departure represents one of the most serious blows to OPEC unity since the organization’s founding, particularly as the global oil market faces supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and extreme price volatility linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

World oil market 'severely undersupplied,' to stay in deficit until Q4: IEA | S&P Global - The world is facing a massive 6 million b/d oil supply shortage that could keep markets tight well beyond 2026 even if the war in Iran is resolved swiftly, the International Energy Agency said May 13. The Paris-based agency has overhauled its market outlook in light of the conflict, which it said has already created a cumulative supply loss of more than 1 billion barrels and could reduce global production by 3.9 million b/d across 2026. On the demand side, the IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 420,000 b/d to 104 million b/d over the full year, a decline more than five times the scale it projected last month. Before the conflict, it expected that annual demand would grow by 850,000 b/d. From a starting point projecting a major oil supply glut in the first half of the year, the IEA now sees a 1.8 million b/d production shortfall through 2026, and expects the market to remain in deficit until the final quarter of the year. "The market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of Q3 2026, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the IEA said in its closely watched monthly oil outlook. Should the disruption last longer, however, the cumulative supply deficit could feasibly double in some scenarios, the IEA said. Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA see the crude market in a 1.2 million b/d deficit through 2026, but expect a deeper demand loss of nearly 2 million b/d. The OPEC secretariat, which has maintained a more bullish consumption view, said in its latest forecast May 13 that global oil demand would grow a "healthy" 1.2 million b/d in 2026 and another 1.5 million b/d in 2027, citing the resilience of the world economy. Demand toll Early demand destruction has been partly offset by stock releases, panic-buying and government subsidies in many of the developing countries particularly exposed to price shocks. However, as governments run out of options to cushion the impact of the crisis, global demand is now taking a bigger hit, the IEA said. In the second quarter, demand is now on track to fall by 2.45 million b/d from 2025 levels, with OECD countries accounting for 38% of the consumption loss, according to the agency. Petrochemical feedstocks have so far seen the steepest contraction, accounting for roughly half of the 2026 demand downgrade. Consumption of jet fuel/kerosene has also been badly hit, and the full-year forecast was cut by 210,000 b/d from the prewar outlook, the IEA said. In contrast, there has been a "relatively modest" impact on road fuels, although that could still deteriorate. In February and March, global gasoil and gasoline deliveries were 300,000 b/d higher than in 2025, the IEA reported, noting potential precautionary buying in markets such as the US and China. However, such behavioral patterns can only provide short-term uplift. In the US, drivers now face gasoline prices roughly 40% higher than they were pre-war, while global oil inventories were depleted by 250 million barrels over March and April. In the refining sector, crude processing is forecast to fall by 4.5 million b/d in Q2, transferring further tightness from the crude markets to fuel. Crude imports have been markedly lower in China, Japan, South Korea and India, signaling run cuts. On a macroeconomic scale, slower growth risks dragging on consumer and industrial consumption, and potentially straining economies subsidizing imports. The IEA outlook now assumes global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. On the supply side, output fell by a further 1.8 million b/d in April, led by a 14.4 million b/d production loss from the Middle East Gulf. As a result, global output in Q2 is on track to fall below 100 million b/d for the first time in four years, the IEA said. Using its East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia increased its Red Sea loadings by 900,000 b/d to 5.3 million b/d in April, while higher pipeline deliveries boosted exports from the UAE's port of Fujairah by 430,000 b/d. To restore Gulf production more significantly, however, trade exports will need to first normalize for at least two to three months, the agency suggested. Outside the Middle East, the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela have all increased production, adding 3.5 million b/d to Atlantic Basin crude exports from February. The IEA duly upgraded its Americas supply forecast by 600,000 b/d from its pre-war estimate, and now sees some 1.5 million b/d of regional supply growth in 2026. Russia also increased its crude exports in April by 250,000 b/d from the previous month, but the shift was partly driven by Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Products exports were down by 340,000 b/d, falling to the lowest on IEA records. In the longer run, rebuilding depleted oil inventories could require an extra 1 million b/d of supply growth for the next three years, the agency said. As of May 8, its member countries had released 164 million barrels of a planned 400 million barrel stock release, while the organization has said it could sanction more releases if needed. With little clarity over the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, forecasters have struggled to make definitive projections on the state of the market. Should a peace deal materialize, global demand could still swing back to growth towards the end of the year, while the level of infrastructure damage contributes to "significant uncertainty" around the new forecast, the IEA warned. The IEA and OPEC, have diverged in their recent assessments of the market, with the oil exporting organization maintaining a more bullish view on demand. OPEC announced a rare meeting between its Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol on May 12, which it said involved discussions on the global energy outlook and commitments to a stronger dialogue. The IEA announced it will defer its annual long-term oil report, Oil 2026, which was due to cover the period out to 2031, from its scheduled release in June. It has yet to specify a new publication date.

Aramco Expects Oil, Natural Gas Supply Chain Disruptions for Months Even if Hormuz Reopens Soon -  About 600 vessels, including those carrying oil, LNG and other products, are trapped in the Persian Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to Saudi Aramco.  At a Glance:

• 2–5 vessels transiting daily
• 100 million b/d of crude cut
• Natural gas output stable

IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year - Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus, OilPrice reports citing the latest IEA data. "With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per ⁠day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries. According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline. Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as price spikes lead ⁠to demand destruction and slower economic growth: Global demand is also forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd compared to a previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd in the current year. "Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as 6 million bpd. Global crude runs are expected to plunge by 1.6 million bpd to an average of 82.3 mb/d for the year as operators face infrastructure damage and severe feedstock shortages, with refinery throughput expected to fall by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter alone. Operators in the Middle East and Asia are battling significant damage to energy infrastructure and reduced availability of crude feedstocks, largely stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The heaviest cuts have been in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, heavily impacting naphtha, LPG and jet fuel production. According to the IEA, global oil inventories are projected to fall by an average of 8.5 mb/d during the second quarter of 2026, with the drawdown largely due to a decline in crude output from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. The steepest inventory draws are projected to occur in May and June, helping to keep Brent crude prices elevated at ~$106 per barrel. Whereas the release of a total of 400 million barrels by 32 IEA members is expected to provide a temporary buffer, the market will still face a significant deficit that could keep prices high through the year.

Oil prices surge 4% after US-Iran peace hopes fade - Oil prices witnessed a significant jump in international market as the United States and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement while the energy supplies may continue to face disruption due to restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reached $99.98 per barrel, up $4.56 or 4.78% from previous levels, while Brent crude climbed to $105.50, rising $4.21, an increase of 4.16%, according to a portal that monitors oil prices. Middle Eastern Murban crude also moved higher, trading at $98.82 per barrel, marking a $2.16 gain, or 2.23%. Oil Prices Surge 4 After Us Iran Peace Hopes Fade Meanwhile, natural gas prices experienced upward momentum, reaching $2.829 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), an increase of 7.2 cents, or 2.61%. Gasoline followed suit, with prices rising $0.092 to $3.619 per gallon, reflecting a 2.61% increase. The oil and energy prices moved up after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s most recent reply to Washington’s peace proposal, describing it as “totally unacceptable” amid escalating Middle East tensions. Posting on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said he had reviewed the Iranian response and strongly disagreed with it. “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘representatives’. I don’t like it — totally unacceptable,” he wrote. The statement comes as the US awaits further diplomatic progress with Iran following weeks of heightened military tensions and fragile ceasefire efforts in the Gulf region. Iran had submitted its reply to a US-backed proposal aimed at ending the regional conflict, with mediation efforts involving Pakistan playing a key role. Iranian state media outlet IRNA reported that the current phase of talks would mainly focus on halting the ongoing hostilities.

WTI at $98 as Iran War Negotiations Stall-- Oil futures climbed Monday after ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the U.S-Iran conflict failed again, with both sides dismissing each other's proposals, while disruptions to oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz continued to tighten global supplies. On Monday, Reuters reported that a survey conducted by the news agency showed OPEC's crude production fell by 830,000 bpd, the steepest decline in more than two decades, which also fueled concerns over tightening supplies, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the energy complex. Separately, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said over the weekend the Trump administration is weighing options to curb rising fuel costs, as retail fuel prices climbed amid ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict. Wright said the administration is "open to all ideas" aimed at lowering prices at the pump for U.S. consumers, including a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax. U.S. retail gasoline prices nationwide climbed to $4.581 gallon in the week ended May 4, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the highest level since the Iran conflict started. However, market participants remained focused on the Iran war developments, as attention also turned to U.S. President Donald Trump's planned visit to China this week for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agenda is expected to center on bilateral economic relations as well as the Iran war situation, given China's role as the largest buyer of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract climbed $2.50 to $97.92 bbl, while the July ICE Brent futures contract increased $2.87 to $104.16 bbl. June RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0726 to $3.5993 gallon, the front-month ULSD contract increased $0.0823 to $3.9814 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.041 points to 97.825 against a basket of currencies.

Oil prices settle higher after Trump says Iran ceasefire "on life support" (Reuters) - Oil prices settled almost 3% higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support," leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely closed with ‌no clear end in sight to the war. Brent crude futures settled up $2.92, or 2.88%, at $104.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled ‌at $98.07 a barrel, up $2.65, or 2.78%. Brent reached a session high of $105.99 and WTI hit a peak of $100.37. Last week, both benchmarks recorded 6% weekly losses on hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that would allow oil to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But on Monday, Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support," after dismissing Tehran's response to a U.S. peace proposal as "stupid." Days after Washington floated a proposal aimed at reopening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also demanded compensation for war damage, emphasized ‌its sovereignty over the strait, and called on ⁠the U.S. to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales. Within hours, Trump dismissed Tehran's offer in a social media post as "totally unacceptable." "The narrative has changed again ⁠from de-escalatory to escalatory in a matter of a few days and oil markets respond to it - although only modestly," said Florence Schmit, an energy strategist at Rabobank. Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to discuss Iran among other topics with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to U.S. officials. "I don't think anyone is looking for the U.S. to up the ante anytime in the balance of ‌the week as long as this China, Trump meeting is going on," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. The world has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months and energy markets will take time to stabilize even if flows resume, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday. Saudi Arabian crude oil exports to China are expected to fall further in June after buyers cut nominations because of costly prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict and lower supplies, trade sources told Reuters. OPEC oil output dropped further in April to the lowest in more ‌than two decades, a Reuters survey found, as the war effectively closed the strait and forced export cuts. Crude output by the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in April fell by 830,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 20.04 million bpd, the survey found. March's figure was revised 700,000 bpd lower due to a change in the Saudi ‌estimate. Meanwhile, three tankers carrying crude exited the strait last week and on Sunday with trackers switched off, Kpler shipping data showed. One was loaded with Iraqi crude bound for Vietnam. Japan's industry ministry said a tanker carrying Azerbaijani crude oil was set to arrive as early as Tuesday, the first cargo of oil received from there since the Iran war began. JPMorgan analysts expect oil prices to remain in the low $100s for ‌most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 with no quick normalization once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Oil prices jump on renewed US-Iran tensions --Oil prices surged more than 3% after renewed uncertainty in negotiations between the United States and Iran raised concerns over global supply stability and pushed geopolitical risk back into focus. Brent crude futures rose by $3.47, or 3.3%, reaching $107.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.54, or 3.6%, to $101.61. Both benchmarks had already gained nearly 3% in the previous trading session, News.Az reports, citing Al Jazeera.  Market analysts said the latest move was driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran over proposals aimed at reducing conflict in the Middle East. One analyst noted that both sides had rejected each other’s negotiation terms, contributing to renewed instability in energy markets.Concerns over supply disruptions also intensified following warnings about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Energy industry leaders cautioned that any disruption in the area could significantly affect global supply flows and delay market stabilization.Analysts further suggested that oil prices could react sharply to future developments, with potential declines if a breakthrough deal is reached, or further increases if tensions escalate or shipping routes face disruption.The situation highlights how geopolitical risks continue to play a central role in global energy pricing, particularly when tensions involve major oil-producing regions.

Brent & WTI top $100 with U.S.-Iran diplomacy at a standstill; CPI shows oil shock -- Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with both crude benchmarks topping $100 a barrel. The advance came amid an impasse between the U.S. and Iran, denting hopes for a swift end to the war. A key U.S. inflation report also showed an outsized impact of surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. At 15:50 ET (19:50 GMT), Brent crude futures expiring in July, the global oil benchmark, rose 3.4% to $107.72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures expiring in June advanced 4.3% to $102.29 a barrel. Market sentiment remained dominated by fears that the more than two-month old war in the Middle East could further tighten global supply, particularly after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest response to an American peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” He described Tehran’s reply as “a piece of garbage,” adding that an ongoing ceasefire between the warring parties was now at its weakest point. Iran defended its position on Monday, saying its counteroffer was focused on ending the war, lifting an ongoing U.S. naval blockade, and restoring shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has also demanded compensation for war damage, removal of sanctions, and recognition of its sovereignty over the strait. A CNN report late Monday said Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations against Iran as peace negotiations dithered.The comments renewed concerns over the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and fuel supply passes. Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned this week that even if the waterway reopened immediately, it could still take months for global oil flows to normalize. Oil retreated temporarily last week on expectations that Washington and Tehran may be moving closer to a diplomatic breakthrough, but those hopes have since largely faded. The United Kingdom on Tuesday said it would be contributing drones, jets, and a warship as part of any future defensive mission to secure safe shipping through the strait. ’Gusher of oil like you’ve never had before’ "We don’t have to rush anything," Trump said on Iran on Tuesday. "We have a blockade which allows them no money. It’s a very simple thing: we cannot let them have a nuclear weapon — because they’d use it," the president told radio talk show host Sid Rosenberg. Later, before boarding his flight to a three-day trip to China, Trump told reporters that the U.S. would "only" be "making a good deal." When asked what would be his redline to end the ceasefire, the president said "we’re going to see." "One way or the other, it’s going to work out very well. It’s going to work out very well. I think you’re going to have so much oil, you’re going to have a gusher of oil like you’ve never had before. So when oil goes up a little bit, I thought it would go up much more," Trump said. "If you go back three, four months ago, we were contemplating, we assumed oil would go much higher. Yesterday, it was at $99. And if you think about it, I would have taken that all day long, because it’s very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They will not have a nuclear weapon," he added. The president also said he would be discussing Iran with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his trip, adding that the Asian nation had "been relatively good" about the war. "You look at the blockade, no problems. They get a lot of their oil from that area, we’ve had no problem. And he’s been a friend of mine. He’s been somebody that we get along with... this is going to be a very exciting trip. A lot of good things are going to happen," Trump said. China is Iran’s largest oil buyer and retains significant diplomatic leverage with Tehran. Investors were also closely watching U.S. inflation data on Tuesday. As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline consumer price index (CPI) in April ticked up 0.6% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, compared to consensus estimates of 0.6% and 3.7%. The 3.8% reading is the highest since a 4% rise in May 2023. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y, versus estimates of 0.3% and 2.7%. The inflation data confirmed that surging oil prices due to the Iran war were indeed boosting U.S. consumer prices. The index for energy prices climbed 3.8% M/M in April, accounting for over 40% of the monthly headline CPI growth. However, the energy index did decelerate significantly from March’s 10.9% M/M increase. On a Y/Y basis, the energy index soared 17.9%, its highest since September 2022. The index for gasoline prices advanced 5.4% on a M/M basis in April, much slower than March’s 21.2% gain. On a Y/Y basis, the gasoline index jumped 28.4%, its highest since July 2022. "The Treasury complex’s ability to withstand elevated oil prices is being threatened by...higher fuel charges, driving accelerating inflation. And every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the fixed-income space is under greater stress as it lifts its cost-pressure expectations while demanding a tighter stance from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, May’s CPI is poised to come in north of 4%, reflecting energy inputs beginning to broaden out to the overall economy," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said. The April CPI report comes at a time of transition for the Fed, with incumbent chair Jerome Powell’s term coming to an end in three days. He is expected to be replaced by President Donald Trump’s pick Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor. Traders raised their expectations of interest rate hikes in September, October, and December after the CPI report, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

JPMorgan sees oil prices holding in low $100s despite Hormuz reopening --Global crude oil prices are likely to remain in the low $100s per barrel mark for an extended period due to persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks linked to tensions in West Asia, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. According to the investment bank's revised assessment, oil prices are expected to remain in the low-$100s range for most of the year, even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations in the coming weeks. According to the report, disruptions in shipping, refinery operations and tanker availability are expected to continue weighing on global energy supply chains, preventing a quick correction in prices. The global brokerage has projected that Brent crude could average around $97 per barrel in 2026, suggesting that energy markets may continue to face tight supply conditions over the medium term. The report further noted that reopening of the Strait alone would not immediately stabilise the market, as logistical challenges across the broader oil transport network are likely to persist for months. Meanwhile, oil prices surged again on Tuesday, with international benchmark Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel, up about 1 per cent, after US President Donald Trump criticised Iran’s response to Washington’s peace proposal, raising fresh concerns over regional stability and its impact on global oil flows. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed close to the $100-per-barrel mark, registering a gain of nearly 1 per cent. Moreover, reports showed that crude output by OPEC declined by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million barrels per day. In addition, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty came under sharp pressure, declining by around 1 per cent.

Oil settles higher as hopes of peace in the Middle East dwindle (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher for the third consecutive session on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the war in the Middle East raised concerns that supply disruptions upending the ‌global oil market are likely to be prolonged. Brent crude futures gained $3.56, or 3.42%, to settle at $107.77 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures closed up $4.11, or 4.19%, at $102.18. Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 3% on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that ceasefire talks with Iran were on "life support," pointing to disagreements over Tehran's demands of a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the removal of a U.S. naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales and compensation for war damage. Iran also emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. "Markets are doubting that a peace deal ⁠is within reach," The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it now assumes the strait will be effectively closed through late May, leading to much larger losses of Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies than its prior forecasts. The agency had earlier expected the waterway would be shut through late April. Even after flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take at least until late 2026 or early 2027 for oil output and trade patterns to return to pre-conflict levels, the EIA said. Disruptions linked to the near-closure of the strait have prompted producers to curtail exports, with a Reuters survey on Monday showing OPEC oil output in April fell to its lowest level in more than two decades. The EIA estimates 10.5 million barrels per day of output were lost during April across the Middle East due to the strait closure, limiting exports. Other sources have pegged the supply losses much higher. J.P. Hanson, global head of oil and gas at Houlihan Lokey, said the conflict has created a 14 million ‌bpd supply gap. "The ⁠market now faces an aggregate billion-barrel deficit, compounded by drained strategic reserves and limited capacity to replace lost volumes," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on Monday that disruptions to oil exports through the strait could delay a return to market stability until 2027, with the loss of about 100 million barrels of oil per week. Prolonged loss of Middle Eastern supply is forcing countries around the world to burn through their oil and gas stockpiles. The EIA now expects global oil inventories will fall about 2.6 million bpd this ⁠year, much more than its previous forecast of a 300,000 bpd decline. In the United States, crude stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 2.1 million barrels last week, an extended Reuters poll of analysts showed. U.S. fuel inventories are also expected to have declined last week, the poll showed. "Global oil balances continue to tighten daily with the loss of supply easily exceeding the ⁠price-induced reduction in demand," "This keeps us in a bullish frame of mind where nearby crude futures appear to possess another $10-12 per barrel on the upside before such lofty pricing forces some significant concessions on the part of the U.S., Iran or both."

Oil prices dip ahead of Trump-Xi talks amid Iran tensions -- Oil prices declined on 13 May amid uncertainty over a tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump prepares to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in China. At 06:30 GMT, Brent crude futures had decreased by $1.47, or 1.4%, to reach $106.30 a barrel (bbl), reported Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures had declined by $1.41, or 1.4%, settling at $100.77/bbl. On Tuesday, oil prices increased by more than 3%, building on previous gains as the likelihood of a durable US-Iran ceasefire diminished. This reduced the chances of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas volumes. Since late February, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran and Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, both benchmarks have mostly remained near or above the $100/bbl level. President Trump remarked that he does not foresee needing China’s involvement to resolve the conflict with Iran, despite the deteriorating hopes for a lasting peace. The US-China discussions are set to take place later in the week in Beijing. Despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration, China remains the largest purchaser of Iranian oil. The ongoing conflict with Iran is affecting the US economy, the largest in the world, particularly as increased oil prices push fuel costs higher. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC as of May 2026 is affecting future production figures in energy reports. Recent data highlights an estimated reduction of 10.5 million barrels per day across several Middle Eastern countries. The US Energy Information Administration anticipates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed through May, with normal traffic resuming by June and shipments normalising later in the year. Oil price movements have closely tracked changes in global inventory levels. Brent crude prices peaked at $138/bbl in early April, with average prices at $117/bbl for the month. Forecasts indicate that retail gasoline prices will average $3.88/gal in 2026 and slightly decrease in 2027. The US propane inventory surplus, due to supply growth outpacing demand, is expected to persist, with increased exports to Asia set to compensate for reduced Middle Eastern shipments. In April, US LNG export capacity grew by approximately 900 million cubic feet per day due to project expansions. During the first quarter of 2026, US-marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 billion cubic feet per day, a 4% increase from the same period the previous year. Output is expected to continue rising through 2027, supported by associated gas connected to elevated crude oil prices.

WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest SPR Drawdown In 45 Year History, Production Jumped --Oil prices are higher this morning (extending its 8%-plus surge of the last three days) as Middle East tensions simmer and global stockpiles shrink at a record pace. WTI topped $103 and Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel, erasing its retreat earlier on Wednesday, after the IEA said global observed oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million barrels a day in March and April. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its output sank to the lowest level since 1990. “With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period,” the Paris-based IEA said in its Oil Market Report. The market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month, the agency said. For obvious reasons, this morning's official inventory and supply data (for the US) is now top of mind. API :

• Crude -2.2mm
• Cushing
• Gasoline +502k
• Distillates -319k

DOE:

• Crude -4.3mm (-2.5mm exp)
• Cushing -1.7mm
• Gasoline -4.08mm - 13th weekly draw in a row
• Distillates +190k - first build in 7 weeks

Crude stocks saw a bigger than expected drawdown last week (the third week in a row) as Cushing inventories drop and while Distillates saw a small build, Gasoline stocks plunged... again... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. The drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to accelerate. The 8.6mm barrel draw was the largest on record... US crude production jumped last week... Crude exports jumped back up to near the 6 million barrel a day mark, rising 742,000 barrels to around 5.5 million barrels a day. Anything above 4 million barrels a day is generally considered robust demand and in recent weeks the US sets its all-time record for crude exports as the Iran war disrupts flows globally. Imports of Venezuelan crude soared to 598,000 barrels a day, the highest since early 2019 when the US first imposed a de facto ban on oil imports from the country. Refinery runs bounced back in a big way and are now just shy of levels seen at the same time last year as maintenance season wraps up. Valero Port Arthur was finally able to restart its largest crude unit, following a end-March fire, helping to bolster crude processing in the region. WTI extended gains, topping $103.50 this morning, as Martijn Rats, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a Monday note: "That this is the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the oil market is neither an exaggeration nor controversial."

Oil settles lower on US rate hike fears; investors watch Trump-Xi meeting  (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday as investors worried about possible U.S. interest rate hikes and awaited updates on a high-stakes summit in Beijing between U.S. President Donald Trump ‌and China's Xi Jinping. Brent crude futures closed down $2.14, or 2%, to $105.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures ‌fell $1.16, or 1.14%, to $101.02. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation pressures do not abate, a sign that the war has begun to weigh on the U.S. economy. Higher oil prices have pushed up fuel costs and economists expect to see effects in the months ahead. U.S. producer prices in April posted their biggest increase in four years, boosted by soaring costs for goods and services, the latest sign of accelerating inflation during the war with Iran. In April, U.S. consumer ‌prices rose sharply for a second straight ⁠month, producing the largest annual increase in inflation in nearly three years. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Trump landed in Beijing ⁠on Wednesday, a day after saying he did not think he would need China's help to end the war, even as prospects for a lasting peace deal weakened and Tehran tightened its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration. Trump is scheduled to meet Xi on Thursday and Friday. "There is likely to be some ‌structural tightness (in the oil market) for at least the balance of this year," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. OPEC on Wednesday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026. The International Energy Agency said global oil supply would not meet total demand this year as the war wreaks havoc on Middle East production. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1-million-barrel draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Gasoline stocks fell by ‌4.1 million barrels in the week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9-million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.2 million barrels versus expectations for a 2.7-million-barrel drop. The data briefly boosted oil futures. On Tuesday, oil prices rose more than 3% as ‌hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded, dimming prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday that Kuwait had "unlawfully" attacked an Iranian boat and detained four Iranian citizens in the Gulf. He added that Tehran demands their release and reserves the right to respond. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he believes progress is ‌being made in negotiations with Iran to end hostilities, after Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable.

World Oil Prices Hold Above $105 as Iran Tensions and Trump-Xi Summit Drive Volatility  — World oil prices remained elevated above $105 per barrel on Thursday, May 14, 2026, as ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to support the market even as investors awaited outcomes from the high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded near $105.50 per barrel in early European trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, hovered around $101 per barrel. Both contracts have stayed in elevated territory throughout 2026, reflecting persistent supply concerns and strong global demand despite economic uncertainties in some regions. The primary driver remains the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows. Since military actions began in late February, shipping traffic has been severely restricted, leading to significant supply disruptions and a sharp drawdown in global inventories. Analysts at S&P Global estimate that inventories have fallen by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, pushing prices higher and creating a risk premium in the market. The Trump-Xi summit has added another layer of uncertainty and potential relief. Trump is pressing China, Iran's largest oil customer, to use its influence to help stabilize energy flows. Any positive developments from Beijing could ease pressure on prices, but analysts caution that a quick resolution to the Hormuz situation remains unlikely. "The market is pricing in prolonged disruption," said one senior energy trader. "Even optimistic scenarios suggest it will take time for flows to normalize." U.S. production has provided some buffer. Domestic output remains near record levels, helping to offset some global tightness. However, OPEC+ members have maintained disciplined production cuts, limiting additional supply to the market. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers continue to prioritize price stability over volume in the current environment. Demand remains robust despite higher prices. Strong economic activity in Asia, particularly in India and parts of Southeast Asia, has supported consumption. China's stimulus measures have helped stabilize industrial activity, though the country's overall economic recovery remains uneven. Global oil demand is projected to average around 103 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, with transportation fuels and petrochemicals driving growth. For American consumers, the impact is noticeable at the pump. National average gasoline prices have climbed above $4.00 per gallon in many regions, adding pressure on household budgets ahead of the summer driving season. Refiners have warned that prolonged high crude costs could lead to further increases if inventory levels tighten further. Energy companies have benefited from the elevated price environment. Major producers have reported strong earnings, with many using the windfall to pay down debt, increase dividends and invest in low-carbon technologies. Oilfield service companies have also seen renewed demand, though the focus remains on efficiency and capital discipline rather than aggressive expansion. The Trump administration has used the situation to push for increased domestic production and streamlined permitting for energy projects. Officials argue that boosting U.S. output can help stabilize global markets and reduce reliance on foreign supplies. However, environmental groups and some Democrats in Congress have criticized the approach, calling for faster transition to renewable energy sources. Longer-term forecasts suggest prices could remain elevated through the remainder of 2026. Standard Chartered and other banks project Brent averaging between $100 and $110 per barrel for the year, assuming the Hormuz situation persists into the third quarter. A full resolution could bring prices back toward $80-$90, but most analysts see limited downside risk in the near term. Investors have responded with caution. Energy stocks have outperformed broader markets in 2026 but remain sensitive to any diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden supply increases. Volatility in oil futures has increased, with traders positioning for potential swings around the Trump-Xi meetings and other geopolitical developments. The situation also highlights the interconnected nature of global energy markets. Europe, still recovering from earlier energy shocks, has increased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and other alternatives. Asia's reliance on Middle Eastern crude makes it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region. As the Trump-Xi summit continues, any signals regarding Iran or energy cooperation could move markets significantly. For now, the combination of tight supply, strong demand and geopolitical risk keeps oil prices firmly in elevated territory, affecting everything from gasoline prices to inflation expectations worldwide.

Oil prices fall as Iran gives green light to vessels crossing Strait of Hormuz — Oil prices dipped on Thursday after Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours while the semiofficial Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels. Meanwhile, the White House, speaking of US President Donald Trump’s meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, said both leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. Xi said the “rejuvenation of China” and “Make America Great Again” can go hand in hand. Easing from an earlier high of $107.13 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures were down 60c, or 0.6%, to $105.03 a barrel at 14.22 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 52c, or 0.5%, to $100.50. Both contracts fell on Wednesday as investors worried about possible US interest rate hikes as higher fuel prices spur inflationary pressures. Brent crude futures lost more than $2 a barrel, while WTI futures dropped more than $1. Xi expressed interest in purchasing more US oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the White House. China, never a big buyer of US crude, has not imported any since May 2025 due to a 20% import tariff imposed during the trade war. The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy gateway, has been largely shut since the Iran war broke out at the end of February. Iran appears to have tightened its control over the strait, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region. Before the Fars report, a Chinese supertanker carrying 2-million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the strait on Wednesday after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months.

Oil prices hover around $100 after White House says Trump and Xi discussed Strait of Hormuz - Oil prices hovered around $100 on Thursday, after the White House said President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose 9 cents to close at $105.72 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June added 9 cents to settle at $101.17 per barrel. “The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” a White House official said in a statement Thursday. “President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use.” Xi also expressed interest in buying U.S. oil, the White House official said. However, Chinese state media did not mention any dicussion of Hormuz or oil purchases. Trump and Xi “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation,” according to state-owned Xinhua. OPEC and the International Energy Agency on Tuesday published their latest updates on how the Iran war has impacted the oil market. OPEC cut its demand growth estimates for 2026 to about 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million bpd previously, in its latest monthly update. The cartel’s production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April and has declined more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd since the start of the Iran war in late February. OPEC’s latest update is expected to be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which exited the cartel on May 1. “More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said. With more than 14 million bpd of supply cut, the overall loss from Gulf producers is now over a billion barrels, the IEA said, adding that greater price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches. “The duration of elevated fuel prices remains a subject of intense discussion and is closely tied to ongoing geopolitical developments surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East from further conflict,” ING analysts said in a note.

Oil Market Eases as Strait of Hormuz Transit Resumes Following U.S.-China Talks -- The oil market on Thursday traded lower in light of reports of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while the semi-official Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels. This followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, with both leaders agreeing that the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. The crude market sold off below the $100 level in overnight trading as it traded to $99.60 as the meeting between the U.S. and China began. The market bounced off that level and traded back to a high of $102.35. However, the market erased its gains once again and traded lower following the reports of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. It traded to a low of $99.39 early in the morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The June WTI contract settled up 15 cents at $101.17 and the July Brent settled up 9 cents at $105.72. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil contract settling down 6.11 cents at $3.9056 and the RB market settling down 1.3 cents at $3.6057. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is in China’s best interests and he believes Beijing will do what it can to reopen the waterway. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi urged BRICS nations on Thursday to condemn what he called violations of international law by the United States and Israel, including “their illegal aggression against Iran”. He criticized Washington, describing the war as “illegal expansionism and warmongering,” and said Iran remained open to diplomacy while being ready to defend itself “with all available means.” Iran’s stance could make it difficult for BRICS, which operates by consensus, to agree on a joint statement, given the UAE’s presence on the opposing side. Iran has launched numerous attacks on the UAE and other neighboring countries. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report of an incident 38 nautical miles northeast of the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah. It said the vessel was boarded by unauthorized personnel while at anchor and is now heading toward Iranian territorial waters. Ship-tracking data from LSEG showed that a Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refining group Eneos has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the second instance of such a Japan-linked oil ship making it through. Bloomberg reported that Vitol Group is offering Iraqi Basrah crude to customers, in a sign that some shipments may have successfully made it out of the Persian Gulf. According to source, Vitol has offered cargoes to refiners in the past few days, with Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy available on a ship-to-ship transfer basis in waters off the UAE port of Fujairah.

Iran deploys fast-boat swarms in Strait of Hormuz as Vance cites ‘sensitive’ negotiations  - A swarm of more than 300 Iranian fast-attack boats was identified in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington continued. According to maritime intelligence firm Windward AI, 342 boats were deployed across five monitored zones — a “step down from yesterday’s 454, but still elevated compared with the 27 to 230 range observed between May 4 and May 10,” the firm said in a post shared on X. On May 11, a swarm of about 200 Iranian fast-attack boats brought the Strait of Hormuz to a virtual standstill, the firm said. Windward also reported a heavy concentration of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small craft inside the northern Hormuz Corridor, using “swarm-style formations” and “escort-like behavior” to disrupt commercial traffic. “The swarm coincides with a total halt in commercial movement, with all large-hull vessels currently observed as stationary,” Windward said. Iran also expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz into a “vast operational area” far wider than before the conflict, according to reports. Citing Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political director of the IRGC Navy, the state-affiliated Fars News Agency reported May 12 that the strait is no longer viewed as a narrow stretch around a handful of islands. Instead, it has been expanded in both scope and military significance, Akbarzadeh said, according to Reuters.

Ship seized off UAE coast heads to Iranian waters - (AP) — A ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates was seized and taken toward Iran and another — a cargo ship near Oman — sank after being attacked, authorities said Thursday, as tensions escalated near the Strait of Hormuz.It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind these incidents, but they happened as a senior Iranian official reiterated his country’s claim of control over the waterway and another said it had a right to seize oil tankers connected to the U.S.The turmoil in the strait, which a fifth of the world’s oil passed through before the war, has been a sticking point for weeks in talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict. Iran’s grip on the vital waterway has jolted the world economy and spiked fuel prices far beyond the Middle East.The ongoing instability in the region comes as U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. The White House said both sides had agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.Just last week, tensions flared in the strait when U.S. forces fired on and disabled Iranian oil tankers that it said were trying to breach its blockade of Iran’s ports. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said it received reports that the ship seized Thursday was taken by unauthorized personnel while anchored 38 nautical miles (70 kilometers, 44 miles) northeast of the UAE port of Fujairah, an important oil export terminal that has been repeatedly attacked during the war with Iran.The U.K. maritime center did not name the ship seized Thursday and said it is investigating. The British military said the vessel is heading toward Iranian waters.Indian authorities said Thursday that an Indian-flagged cargo ship sank off the coast of Oman after an attack sparked a fire aboard the vessel while it was en route from Somalia to Sharjah, another UAE port. They did not say who attacked the ship. The attack on the Indian-flagged cargo ship Haji Ali occurred Wednesday, according to Mukesh Mangal, a senior official in India’s shipping ministry. He said all 14 Indian crew members were rescued by Oman’s coast guard and were safe.India’s foreign ministry called the incident “unacceptable” and condemned continued attacks on commercial shipping and civilian mariners. The ministry did not identify who carried out the attack.Iranian semiofficial news agencies reported that Chinese ships began passing through the strait Wednesday night under new Iranian protocols. According to the reports, Tehran agreed to facilitate the passage of several Chinese vessels after requests from China’s foreign minister and Beijing’s ambassador to Iran. The ships began their passage as Trump arrived in China.The seizure of a ship off the coast of the UAE happened hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had quietly visited the country during the Israeli-U.S. war with Iran, though the UAE swiftly denied it.The Gulf nation normalized relations with Israel in 2020. Iran has criticized that agreement and has repeatedly suggested over the years that Israel maintained a military and intelligence presence in the UAE. Netanyahu’s decision to go public with the sensitive meeting was likely an effort to drum up support for his flagging party ahead of Israeli elections, said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Indian cargo ship sinks off Oman after suspected strike as Hormuz crisis spreads --An Indian-flagged cargo ship has sunk off Oman after a suspected strike, with all 14 Indian crew members rescued, adding a new shipping-security shock to the Iran crisis just hours after a separate vessel was reported seized near the UAE and moved toward Iranian waters. The vessel, Haji Ali, was sailing from Somalia to Sharjah with livestock when it was hit by an unidentified explosive object near Oman’s northern coast, according to India Today. The report said officials suspect the object may have been a drone or missile, but no government has publicly identified who carried out the attack. The Associated Press also reported that Indian authorities said the ship sank after an attack sparked a fire aboard the vessel, while it was traveling from Somalia to Sharjah. AP said India’s shipping ministry confirmed all 14 Indian crew members were rescued by Oman’s coast guard and were safe. India Today identified the ship as the Haji Ali, a cargo vessel registered at Salaya Port in Gujarat’s Devbhoomi Dwarka district. The ship was reportedly near Limah, off Oman’s northern coast, around 3:30 a.m. Wednesday when it was struck by an unidentified explosive object. The strike reportedly triggered a fire, forcing the crew to send a distress signal and evacuate into lifeboats. Omani authorities then launched a rescue operation and brought the sailors to Deeba port. The ship’s owner later confirmed that everyone on board was safe. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the attack “unacceptable” and said commercial shipping and civilian mariners must not be targeted. The ministry also thanked Oman for rescuing the crew. That wording matters. New Delhi did not publicly blame Iran, the United States, Israel, or any proxy force. The confirmed facts are narrower: an Indian-flagged commercial vessel was attacked, the crew survived, and the ship sank in waters now considered dangerously exposed because of the wider Iran conflict. The sinking does not stand alone. In a separate report Thursday, AP reported that a ship anchored off the east coast of the United Arab Emirates had been seized and was heading toward Iranian waters, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center. UKMTO said it received reports that unauthorized personnel took the unnamed vessel about 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for that incident either. Together, the two reports point to a sharper phase of the shipping crisis. The threat is no longer just whether the Strait of Hormuz is formally open or closed. The bigger problem is whether individual vessels can transit nearby waters without being attacked, boarded, delayed, or forced into political bargaining. The Haji Ali was not a giant oil tanker. It was a smaller commercial cargo ship carrying livestock. That is exactly why the incident is worrying. When smaller civilian vessels become vulnerable, the risk spreads beyond energy markets into regional trade, insurance, crew safety, and the traditional shipping networks that connect Gulf ports with South Asia and East Africa. India Today reported that this was the second recent sinking involving a Gujarat-linked vessel, after another Salaya vessel reportedly sank in the Strait of Hormuz after being caught in crossfire connected to the regional conflict. For India, the issue is immediate. Indian crews are deeply embedded in global shipping, and Indian-linked vessels regularly move through Gulf routes. An attack that sends 14 Indian sailors into lifeboats forces New Delhi to treat the Iran crisis not just as a diplomatic or energy-price problem, but as a direct maritime-safety threat. The Hormuz crisis is spreading outward The Strait of Hormuz remains the central choke point, but the danger zone now appears wider. Fujairah sits just outside the Persian Gulf and serves as a major UAE oil export hub. Oman’s northern coast lies along another vital approach to Gulf shipping lanes. Incidents in both areas suggest the crisis is spilling into the surrounding sea routes that shippers use to avoid the worst of the pressure. That creates a brutal calculation for commercial operators. Avoiding Hormuz may not be enough if nearby anchorages, approaches, and alternate routes are also exposed. Even when crews survive, insurers can raise premiums, owners can delay sailings, and governments can face pressure to escort or reroute vessels.

Oil Prices Climb As Hormuz Concerns Persist --- Oil prices rallied on Friday as Hormuz concerns persisted and U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the United States will prevail in its war with Iran, "peacefully or otherwise". Brent crude prices for July delivery jumped more than 3 percent to $109.19 a barrel as attacks on one ship and the seizure of another around the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns about energy supplies. WTI crude futures soared 3.5 percent to $104.70 and were on track for a weekly gain of nearly 9 percent. Hormuz concerns persist despite Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming around 30 vessels had crossed the strait since Wednesday evening. After wrapping up his three-day visit to China, U.S. President Trump said he will not be much more patient with Tehran. In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump suggested he may resume the war against Iran after he returns from his trip to China. Elsewhere, the Trump-Xi summit has so far produced warm words but yielded little progress on the war in Iran. Trump warned Iran to make a deal or face "annihilation". In a Telegram post, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United Arab Emirates of playing an active role in the U.S.-Israeli war against his country.

Oil prices rise more than 3% amid fears of renewed US-Iran combat - Oil prices gained more than 3% on Friday, climbing over $3 a barrel after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures gained $3.24, or 3.06%, to $108.96 a barrel by 10:49 a.m. CDT (1549 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $4.13, or 4.08%, at $105.03. Over the week, Brent has climbed 7.54% and WTI 9.7% on uncertainty over the shaky ceasefire in the Iran conflict. “The tone between the U.S. and Iran has once again become significantly more confrontational. While the ceasefire holds, hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded,” Commerzbank analysts said. Iran has “no trust” in the U.S. and is only interested in negotiating with Washington if it is serious, foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday, adding that Iran is prepared to go back to fighting but also prepared for diplomatic solutions. Trump said he was running out of patience with Iran and that he had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Xi did not comment on his discussions with Trump about Iran, though China’s foreign ministry issued a statement. “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue,” the ministry said. Among deals the market was looking for from the U.S.-China summit, Trump said China wants to buy oil from the United States. Trump also said he could lift sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Iranian oil. “Market focus is back on the deadlock and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz, with a tail risk of renewed military escalation,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz between Wednesday evening and Thursday, still far short of the 140 a day that was typical before the war, but a substantial increase if confirmed. “An increasing number of vessels are filtering through the Strait … although currently this has a more tangible impact on sentiment than on the actual oil balance,” The strait’s closure comes at a time when reserves are running thin. “The world has consumed its oil safety net at a historic rate,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said in a note. “While strategic releases and demand reduction have prevented immediate chaos, the margin for error is shrinking rapidly. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz points toward tighter physical markets, potential refined product shortages, and upward pressure on prices in the coming weeks and months.” Shipping analytics firm Kpler said on Thursday that 10 ships had sailed through the strait in the past 24 hours, compared with the five to seven that have crossed daily in recent weeks. “Crude is trading higher on a combination of the Trump-Xi meeting doing little to bring us closer to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

Oil Futures Surge on Tighter Global Supply (DTN) -- Oil futures surged Friday with both WTI and Brent reaching their highest levels in seven days amid expectations of tighter supplies, despite increased vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S.-China agreement emphasizing that the key global oil and gas shipping waterway should remain open. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose $4.25, or 4.20%, to $105.42 bbl, while the July ICE Brent futures contract climbed $3.62, or 3.42%, to $109.34 bbl. In refined products trading, June ULSD futures advanced $0.1539 to $4.0595 gallon, the front-month RBOB futures contract rose $0.1046 to $4.0102 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.482 points to 99.210 against a basket of currencies. Iranian media reported that roughly 30 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, May 14, after Tehran had allowed some Chinese ships to pass through the shipping route. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil supply fell 1.8 million bpd in April to 95.1 million bpd as a result of the Iran conflict and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, bringing cumulative supply losses since February to 12.8 million bpd. "Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million bpd on average in 2026, to 102.2 million bpd," the EIA said. U.S. President Donald Trump concluded his three-day visit to China, saying his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping resulted in "fantastic trade deals." However, details of such agreements were not disclosed. The summit took place more than a year after the Trump administration imposed a baseline 10% tariff on most Chinese good imported into the U.S., prompting retaliatory measures from China and escalating trade tensions between both countries.

Oil Prices Surge Over 3% as WTI and Brent Post Strong Weekly Gains on Tightening Supply - Oil futures and refined fuel benchmarks climbed on Friday and into Saturday as traders tracked tightening supply signals and widening spreads across global crude grades. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent posted strong gains. As of 10:24 am in Tokyo on May 16, US benchmark WTI crude was up $4.25 to $105.42, a 4.2% gain. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose $3.54 to $109.26, up 3.35%. Over the week, Brent crude climbed by 7.84%, while WTI jumped by 10.48%. Gulf marker Murban crude traded at $108.00, up 3.15%, while Dubai crude was at $102.61, up 0.25%. Oman crude on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange was little changed at $104.78. The OPEC basket posted one of the session’s largest moves, up $7.43, or 6.9%, to $115.09, reflecting broad strength across member export grades. Refined products also advanced. US gasoline futures rose 2.67% to $3.702 per gallon, while heating oil gained 3.78% to $4.053. Natural gas futures were up 2.28% at $2.960. In North America, WTI Midland climbed 3.5% to $106.64, and Louisiana Light rose 1.42% to $104.52. However, some inland US grades lagged: Mars crude fell 3.51% to $116.98, and Domestic Sweet at Cushing dropped 6.55% to $91.25. Among other international grades, Russia’s Urals slipped 0.81% to $96.72, while Western Canadian Select edged up 0.17% to $88.82. India’s crude basket rose 0.24% to $109.31, and Mexico’s basket was marginally higher at $104.46. The divergence between coastal, export-linked grades and inland U.S. crudes suggested regional bottlenecks and shifting export economics, even as headline benchmarks rallied. Traders said the broad advance reflected expectations of tighter physical supply and strong refining margins heading into the Northern Hemisphere summer driving season.

World losing 100 million barrels a week of oil with Hormuz closed, Saudi Aramco chief says | Middle East Eye  - Global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer said on Monday. “The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” Saudi Aramco chief executive officer Amin Nasser told analysts on an earnings call. Nasser said the world is coping with the shock through "demand rationing" of available supplies. "We expect demand ‌rationing to continue as long as supply remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. If normal trade and shipping resume, we anticipate a very robust return to demand growth," Nasser said. Energy analysts have already said the collapse of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is being felt unevenly, with countries in Asia that are almost totally dependent on the Gulf for their oil, rationing. In the West, particularly in the US, energy prices have risen, but there have been no measures to restrict consumption. Oil prices soared on Monday by more than three percent after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support”, with traders betting on a return to conflict. But Nasser echoed other CEOs and energy experts who have said there is a disconnect between the physical price of oil and what is being traded in the futures market. As of 11 May, Brent crude futures for July delivery are trading at around $105 per barrel. However, the price customers are paying for oil in the real world is substantially higher. Georges Elhedery, the CEO of HSBC Bank, said last month that the price paid for a barrel of oil reached as high as $286 in Sri Lanka. Other experts have said that buyers in Asia are paying around $150 per barrel of oil. Nasser said the market has been buttressed by drawing down inventories stored at sea and on land, which he called “the only buffer that is available today”. He warned that global stockpiles have been “materially depleted”. The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of oil by its member countries at the start of the war. China, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil after the US, also quietly slashed its imports of oil by 25 percent from pre-war levels. Those moves have helped keep prices in check, but Nasser warned against complacency. “The aggregate inventory level globally is not a proper reflection of the current physical market tightness that we see,” he said. Oil traders, analysts and US banks have all warned that the global energy market will hit a tipping point in June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. “If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened sometime in June/July, global oil inventories will hit an operational floor and result in greater rationing, mostly outside the US,” JP Morgan warned last week. Aramco posted a 26 percent jump in first-quarter adjusted net income, beating analyst expectations. The kingdom is exporting between 60 and 70 percent of its pre-war volume, but at substantially higher prices. Whereas Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for exports, Saudi Arabia has been able to bypass the waterway via its East-West pipeline that terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Nasser called the pipeline a “critical lifeline” and said it was currently pumping at its five-million-barrel-per-day capacity, but looking to increase that number. The kingdom is also using the Red Sea to export 900,000 barrels per day of refined products.

Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs   (Reuters) - Buyers of electric vehicles and consumers of a diet cola in India may seem to be two groups with little in common, but they are both at risk from the fallout from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the narrow waterway remains closed to most vessels the more pronounced second- and third-round effects will become on the world economy, which is already having to deal with higher prices for refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline and the ‌related inflation this brings. Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely considered to be one of the big winners from the current conflict between the United States and Iran, as they allow users to move away from reliance on fossil fuels. But EVs are exposed to the Strait of Hormuz as the manufacture of their batteries is dependent on sulphuric acid, a key component in the extraction of metals such as nickel and lithium. Sulphuric acid is vital in the high-pressure acid leach method of extracting battery-grade nickel from ore at mines in Indonesia, the top producer of the metal. It is also used to extract lithium from hard rocks in Australia, the biggest producer of the metal, and is also important to produce copper. Prior to the February 28 U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran about half of global seaborne ⁠sulphur went through the Strait of Hormuz, largely to countries in Asia. Sulphur is a by-product of producing crude oil and gas, and refining into fuels, making Middle East countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia major suppliers of the raw material that is used to make sulphuric acid. Sulphur is usually transported by bulk carriers and volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed since the start of the Iran conflict, with data from commodity analysts Kpler showing only 30,000 metric tons made it out in April and 180,000 tons in March. This was down from an average of 1.27 million tons a month in the three months prior to the start of the conflict, according to Kpler. The loss of Middle East cargoes has sent the price of sulphur soaring, with delivered prices to Asia reaching as high as $880 a ton, up 50% since the start of the war. The higher price for sulphur is feeding through to sulphuric acid and will raise costs for nickel, copper and lithium miners, but of more concern is that supply might be constrained. If miners in Indonesia, Australia and Chile are forced to compete with each for supplies, it raises the risk that some may be forced to curtail production if they are unable to obtain enough sulphuric ‌acid. Several mining ⁠executives from Indonesia and Australia attending last month's Asian Battery Raw Materials Conference in Hanoi expressed concern that securing sulphuric acid supplies on a medium-term basis is becoming more challenging. China's EV and battery storage makers are exposed to any loss of supply of nickel produced using HPAL as well as lithium from Australia. There are some alternatives to using sulphuric acid in processing metals, but they are not suitable to produce battery-grade nickel, and for copper and lithium they require higher energy inputs to make lower volumes. While the processing of metals is not yet a crisis point, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed the closer that point becomes. It raises the question as to what tactics Beijing ⁠will follow if a threat to its EV and battery industries becomes more than just a remote possibility. The logical step would be to up the pressure on both its ally Iran and on U.S. President Donald Trump to reach an agreement that at the very least reopens the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. While the threat to the production of battery metals increases, there are other impacts outside of crude oil and LNG already being felt. About 8% of global ⁠aluminium supply went through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the Iran war, and this has largely stopped. About 20,000 tons of the lightweight metal exited the Strait in April, according to Kpler data, down from an average of 1.26 million tons in the three months prior to the start of the war. The loss of these cargoes has tightened aluminium supply in India, leading to a shortage of Diet Coke, which is only sold ⁠in aluminium cans. While this represents an inconvenience for Diet Coke drinkers, it also shows that shortages turn up in unexpected places and will disrupt supply chains, leading to higher prices and changed consumer behaviour.

Iran says its small subs deployed to Strait of Hormuz as expert explains threat: ‘Vulnerable to detection’ -  Iran says it has deployed small submarines to act as an "invisible guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz amid a series of rejected peace deals between Tehran and the U.S., according to reports. The deployment claim came as analysts said that although the Iranian Ghadir-class mini-subs could threaten U.S. naval forces, the vessels’ limited range, firepower and endurance would blunt any real strategic impact.  The submarine deployment was highlighted by Bloomberg and first reported by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency. Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of Iran’s navy, said that his forces deployed its light submarine, referred to as the "dolphins of the Persian Gulf," according to the Iranian state media outlet.It also comes as Tehran seeks to reinforce its control over the strait, now defining it as a far larger zone, Reuters reported."Time would be limited, probably a couple of days at the most," defense analyst Tom Shugart told Fox News Digital about the Iranian vessel deployment.The retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer also said the small diesel-electric submarines face fundamental operational constraints."If they run their diesel engines to snorkel and recharge batteries, that could generate sound that could be detected," Shugart said.  "Their snorkel mast projecting from the water could be detected by radars on patrol aircraft or helicopters," Shugart added.The submarines are said to be designed for shallow waters like the Strait of Hormuz and can operate quietly for limited periods on battery power."While they may be able to sit on the bottom for a while and operate somewhat quietly on their batteries for a while, they have no air-independent propulsion system (AIP) like more modern diesel-electric submarines," Shugart said before adding that they’ll, "eventually have to come up and snorkel. This will make them more vulnerable to detection and destruction."

Iran moves to place Internet Cables in Hormuz under State Control - Pakistan Observer– As tensions continue unabated in Strait of Hormuz, Iran has moved to tighten its control, declaring undersea internet cables as strategic assets and introducing plans to regulate both digital traffic and maritime movement through the region. At time when global energy and data flow depend heavily on this narrow passage, the decision sparked concern and raised fresh questions about the future control of one of the world’s most critical trade and communication corridors. Iranian authorities have reportedly taken major and highly sensitive step involving Hormuz, moving to place undersea internet infrastructure and key maritime traffic under tighter state control. The state regime started considering undersea internet cables passing through Strait of Hormuz as strategic national asset. These cables, which carry vast volumes of global internet traffic and critical financial data, could soon come under Iranian regulatory authority. Reports suggest that a newly created authority in the Strait of Hormuz will be responsible for overseeing and managing international submarine communication cables in the region. Under this proposed framework, all such cables would fall under Iranian laws and oversight. Tehran is reportedly working to grant domestic companies greater technical control over the maintenance and management of these undersea cable systems, further strengthening its influence over digital infrastructure in the region. This development comes just a day after Iran announced the formation of the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” a body designed to introduce a new regulatory system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign media reports claim that under this system, ships navigating through the strategic waterway will be required to obtain official permission before passage. Iran is also reportedly considering the introduction of transit fees for vessels using this critical route. Hormuz remains one of the key maritime chokepoints, through which significant portion of global oil supply is transported. Any disruption or tighter control over this route has immediate international implications for energy markets, shipping, and global trade. U.S. Navy destroyers reportedly came under Iranian attack while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, using missiles, drones, and fast boats, according to U.S. Central Command. The situation unfolded alongside a U.S. operation called “Project Freedom,” aimed at securing shipping lanes through the strait. Iran reportedly responded with further strikes on vessels and announced a new authority to regulate and charge for shipping routes in the region. Meanwhile, U.S. forces were said to have disabled several Iranian-linked tankers in separate incidents. Amid escalating tensions and reciprocal attacks, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped, as most operators avoid the area due to security risks and uncertainty.

Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety  - Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday.  The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows. In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes. The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted.  At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted.  A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. “Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.

Chinese Supertanker Sails Out Of Hormuz In Rare Exit - As president Trump was on his way to China, a Chinese tanker appears to have exited the Strait of Hormuz as it sails toward an area where the US has enforced a blockade, ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported today, citing ship-tracking data showing the VLCC moving south along the eastern side of the chokepoint. The supertanker which sailed past Iran’s Larak island, and into the Gulf of Oman, is Yuan Hua Hu, owned by Cosco, and would be only the third tanker carrying oil for China from the Persian Gulf that has traversed Hormuz since the start of the war. The vessel is broadcasting its Chinese origin and crew, Bloomberg said, as other vessels have done previously to secure safe passage. Yuan Hua Hu’s draft indicates it’s fully loaded with oil, or close to the vessel’s 2 million barrel capacity. It was seen lifting from Iraq’s Basrah terminal in early March, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel was chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese state refining giant Sinopec, according to a fixture seen by Bloomberg. In April, two very large Chinese crude carriers were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz under Iran’s toll system that demands payment of $2 million per supertanker to pass. One of those was the same Yuan Hua Hu that is currently moving along the strait. China imports the bulk of its energy from the Middle East, and while it has amassed substantial crude oil stockpiles that are helping it weather the worst of the crisis - anecdotally over 1.4 billion barrels - restoring normal flows from the Persian Gulf is important for one of the world’s top energy importers. Earlier in the war, reports emerged that Beijing had pressured Iranian officials to stop attacking vessels carrying crude oil and LNG via Hormuz. Judging from later events that involved Iranian strikes on vessels in the chokepoint, Tehran did not yield to the pressure. The moment is delicate for relations between the United States, China, and Iran as President Trump heads to Beijing for talks with President Xi on topics that are bound to include traffic via the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, President Trump plans to have “a long talk” with President Xi about Iran, even as he told news agencies he did not need China’s help in resolving differences with Iran.

Iran Allows a 'Number' of Chinese Vessels To Transit Strait of Hormuz: Iranian Media -   Iranian media reported on Thursday that Tehran has approved the transit of a “number” of Chinese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as President Trump is in Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.“Following requests by the Chinese foreign minister and the country’s ambassador to Iran, facilitation of the passage of Chinese ships was pursued based on the deep relations and the strategic partnership between Tehran and Beijing, and it was decided that a number of Chinese ships requested by the country would transit this waterway after reaching an understanding about the Iranian management protocols of the strait, and this passage began Wednesday night,” Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also announced the approval of the Chinese transit and added that any vessels linked to “an enemy state” will continue to be blocked. It’s unclear if China is paying a toll or a fee to Iran for the ships to travel through the strait. The US has claimed that Beijing agreed there should be no toll, but Chinese officials haven’t publicly confirmed that.The White House said in a statement on the talks between Trump and Xi that the two leaders agreed “that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy” and that Xi “also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use.”The Chinese side did not mention Iran or the Strait of Hormuz in its readout of the meeting. China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under heavy US sanctions, and ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing, China ordered companies in the country to ignore US sanctions on Chinese oil refineries with links to Tehran.One result of the US-Israeli war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been an increase in US oil and natural gas exports to Asia, and the White House also claimed that Xi “expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait in the future.”Trump also claimed after the meeting that Xi had committed to not providing Iran with military equipment. “[Xi] said he’s not going to give military equipment. That’s a big statement. He said that today,” Trump told Fox News after the talks.

Report: UAE Has Secretly Launched Attacks Against Iran - The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes against Iran, and its sources presented the Gulf Arab state as an active combatant in the war, backing up Tehran’s allegations against Abu Dhabi. The report said that one of the attacks included the bombing of oil infrastructure in Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, which occurred in early April, right after the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect. At the time, Iranian media blamed the attack on the UAE, saying it was likely launched by the country’s French-made Mirage fighter jets, and Iran responded with attacks on the UAE and Kuwait.Sources told the Journal that the US wasn’t upset with the UAE for attacking Iran after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect because the truce hadn’t “settled into place,” and Washington was happy to see Abu Dhabi join in on direct attacks against the Islamic Republic.Iranian media also reported that it had evidence of Emirati involvement in the war, pointing to the interception of a UAE Mirage fighter jet over Iran’s Jask island on March 22 and the April 1 downing of a Chinese WingLoong-2 drone, which, according to the reports, is “only in the possession of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” The UAE also maintains a fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jets.Throughout the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, Iranian officials had said they were tracking attacks launched from the UAE’s territory, and many of Iran’s missile and drone attacks were focused on targets inside the UAE. Last week, Iran responded to President Trump announcing a new military operation to open the Strait of Hormuz by launching attacks on the UAE, though the Iranian military officially denied conducting the operations.The lack of a US response to last week’s attacks reportedly led to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restricting US military activity at their bases, resulting in Trump pausing the short-lived military operation, which he dubbed “Project Freedom,” though other reports said those restrictions have since been lifted, and the president may restart the effort. The UAE responded to the attacks by vowing that it had the right to respond, and if the US and Israel restart the full-scale bombing campaign, Abu Dhabi will likely be more directly involved than before. The UAE has a partnership with Israel, a result of the normalization deals known as the Abraham Accords, which were signed during the first Trump administration, and Israel reportedly deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the UAE and IDF troops to operate it.

Report: Saudi Arabia Launched Attacks Against Iran During US-Israeli Bombing Campaign - Reuters reported on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes against Iran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”The report came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE also launched direct attacks on Iran, including one that came after the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect.The Reuters report, which cited Western and Iranian officials, said there was a different dynamic between Riyadh and Tehran than between Riyadh and the UAE.“The UAE has taken a more hawkish stance, seeking to ⁠extract ⁠a cost from Iran and engaging only rarely in ⁠public diplomacy with Tehran,” the report said. “Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran’s ambassador in Riyadh.”Officials said that the Saudis launched strikes against Iran in late March in response to Iranian attacks on Saudi territory and that Tehran was made aware of the strikes. Officials said that Riyadh threatened to take a more hawkish approach and hit Iran harder, which led to a decrease in Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia, which hosts US troops and has a close military relationship with Washington. Saudi Arabia maintains a fleet of US-made fighter jets, and Washington had previously backed a brutal Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen from 2015 to 2022.The UAE is seen as being much more openly aligned with Israel due to the 2020 normalization agreement, known as the Abraham Accords, and Israel has reportedly deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the Gulf Arab state.

Report: Saudi Arabia Bombed Iraqi Militias During US-Israeli Bombing Campaign Against Iran -- Saudi Arabia bombed targets in Iraq linked to the country’s Shia militias that are aligned with Tehran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Sources told the outlet that Saudi fighter jets launched strikes against targets near Saudi Arabia’s border with Iran and that some attacks occurred around the time the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect.The report said that the Saudi strikes targeted areas from where missile and drone attacks were launched against Saudi territory. It’s unclear if there were any casualties in the Saudi attacks. Sources also told Reuters that rocket fire from Kuwait targeted militias in Iraq at least twice and that one attack killed several fighters and destroyed a facility used by Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Iran-aligned militias in the country. It’s unclear if the attacks were launched by the US military or Kuwait’s own forces.Throughout the bombing campaign in Iran, the US was launching heavy airstrikes against Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mainly Shia militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and is officially part of Iraq’s security forces. The US strikes killed dozens of PMF fighters, and one attack killed seven Iraqi military troops. Another group, which calls itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and comprises some of the same militias in the PMF, claimed many of the drone attacks against US bases and other assets in the country. Reuters reported a day earlier that Saudi Arabia also launched direct strikes on Iran during the war and warned that the attacks would escalate if Iran didn’t stop targeting Saudi territory. The report said that Iran then reduced its attacks on Saudi Arabia, but that attacks emanating from Iraq continued.

Report: Saudi Arabia Floats Middle East Non-Aggression Pact With Iran - - Saudi Arabia has discussed a non-aggression pact with Middle East states and Iran in conversations with its allies about what the region will look like following the end of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the Financial Times has reported. The report noted that the US’s Gulf Arab allies are worried they will be left with a powerful Iran in the region and a scaled-back US military presence. Satellite images show that many of the US bases across the region have been badly damaged or destroyed by Iranian missile and drone attacks.The Saudis have floated something similar to the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which were meant to reduce Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the US’s allies in Europe. Recent reporting has revealed that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched direct strikes against Iran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign, though the two Gulf states appear to be taking a much different approach, as Abu Dhabi has been more openly hawkish while Riyadh appears to want to ease tensions with Tehran.Two diplomats speaking to the Financial Times questioned whether the UAE would want to be a part of any non-aggression pact with Iran. Israel would almost certainly oppose it as it seeks a return to full-scale war and has envisioned the Abraham Accords, the 2020 normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain, as the start of an anti-Iran alliance in the region.The report said that most Arab and Muslim states in the region see Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu largely to blame for bringing President Trump into the war with Iran, which the Gulf Arab states initially lobbied against. Trump has been considering restarting the full-scale bombing campaign, which appears to be likely as Washington and Tehran remain extremely far apart on their demands for a diplomatic deal.

UAE fast tracks second West-East oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz - Abu Dhabi is accelerating construction of the new West-East pipeline to Fujairah as it looks to expand its oil export capacity and bypass the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The project, expected to come online in 2027, will double the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) export capacity. The second pipeline project comes as global energy supplies remain under pressure, flows through the Strait of Hormuz are severely limited, and repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping have curtailed the UAE’s ability to restore normal output. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Friday called for faster delivery of the pipeline to meet rising global energy demand. ADNOC is “well positioned as a responsible and reliable global energy producer, with the operational flexibility to responsibly increase production to meet market needs when export constraints allow,” the Crown Prince said during a meeting of the company’s executive committee. The Emirates announced earlier this month it would depart the producer group OPEC, of which it was a member since 1967, before the UAE was even founded. The UAE has been investing heavily via ADNOC to increase its production capacity. Before the war, the UAE was producing just over 3 million barrels a day — broadly in line with OPEC+ targets. Abu Dhabi has targeted a capacity to produce 4.9 million BPD. Now, due to the war, the UAE is producing between 1.8 and 2.1 million barrels per day. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) — also known as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline — is the only existing pipeline through which the UAE can export its oil and diverge from the Strait of Hormuz. It can carry up to 1.8 million barrels.

Iran Claims 80% Of Bombed-Out Areas Of Tehran Restored, Amid $270BN War Loss Compensation Demand -  Iran has been seeking to prove its unity and defiance to the world in the aftermath of the 38-days of heavy US-Israeli bombing it endured throughout the Trump-ordered Operation Epic Fury. Along with fast seeking to rearm and recover its missile capability after the bombardment which heavily targeted above and below-ground missile silos, it is also rapidly rebuilding bombed-out parts of the capital city Tehran.In what sounds like a surprising and perhaps high estimate, about 80% of war-damaged sites in Iran's capital have been repaired, the state Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reports."More than 60,000 residential and commercial units in Tehran province were hit by American-Zionist attacks during the third imposed war," Deputy Governor of Tehran Seyyed Kamaleddin Mirjafarian was quoted in the report as saying.The 80% claim might be met with a lot of scrutiny and doubt, given that many neighborhoods and buildings seemed to suffer damage so immense in scale, that it should take at least months if not years to rebuild.But there has been some clear evidence that Iranian construction teams and engineers have worked around the clock to repair and replace vital infrastructure, like bridges for example.  The US and Israel had struck bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow.Also, "ports and railway networks, universities and research centers, and several power plants and water desalination plants were directly hit, while a large number of hospitals, schools and civilian homes were also damaged or destroyed," Al Jazeera describes. By mid-April, Iran had put a price on the damage, while demanding compensation from Washington: Iran has also raised the idea of compensation for damages to come through a Strait of Hormuz protocol, which would include a tax on ships passing through the waterway.An early estimate indicates that Iran has suffered about $270bn in direct and indirect damages since the start of the US-Israel war on February 28, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said during an interview with Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, published on Tuesday.She did not provide further information, such as a breakdown of the damages, but said the issue of compensation was discussed in last week’s negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Pakistan, and will be raised in any potential future talks with the US and mediators. President Trump himself repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age." He's reportedly mulling the resumption of full military operations, amid stalled or non-existent peace talks.

Iran’s Message to Trump: Accept Defeat or Return to War – WANA – Iran has effectively blocked every path through which the United States could exit the war claiming victory. At this point, fulfilling the Islamic Republic’s maximum demands is seen as the only way for Trump to escape the Persian Gulf quagmire: accepting Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz, ending the war on all fronts, dismantling U.S. military bases across the region, paying reparations, and recognizing Iran’s nuclear rights. Since the White House views these conditions as an outright defeat, it continues to resist accepting them. The key point is that Iran has deliberately structured its demands in a way that leaves little room for bargaining. Tehran appears to be in no rush. It has placed its maximalist and victory-oriented demands on the table while already treating the United States as the losing side. According to this narrative, that is the current reality: America came intending to kill, overthrow, divide, seize uranium stockpiles, and dominate Iran’s oil resources. Instead, it suffered humiliation, its bases were destroyed, and it lost access to the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Washington still wants to portray itself as the victor and refuses to acknowledge defeat. A woman walks near a billboard featuring an image of the late Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) If the United States refuses to accept this reality, Iran, according to this view, has no intention of retreating from its demands either. That leaves only one possible outcome: a return to war. But the issue is that the current ceasefire itself is portrayed as the result of America’s defeat on the battlefield, meaning any renewed conflict would effectively resume the same failed war. To Trump’s misfortune, time is also said to be working against American interests. Analysts argue that if the current situation continues for another two weeks, many countries could face severe crises, while the United States itself would experience dramatic inflation and price shocks. Under such circumstances, what would happen if Washington reentered the war and the conflict continued for at least another 40 days? A billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Iran had previously warned that if war were imposed on it, Tehran would not allow the other side to end it whenever they wished. Supporters of this argument point to the “Ramadan War,” claiming that after two weeks, the Americans were already sending ceasefire messages, while Iran allegedly continued the conflict for another 25 days. The implication is that under current conditions, prolonged conflict would damage the opposing camp even more severely. At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu is described as working aggressively to keep Trump locked into the war. From this perspective, the Israeli prime minister does not care how many American soldiers are killed, how many Iranians die, or whether Arab countries suffer. His only concern is his own political interests. Trump, meanwhile, looks at the situation and sees that the aircraft carriers are his, the fighter jets are his, the refueling aircraft are his, the AWACS systems and Black Hawks and MQ-9 drones are all his—so why should he not believe he can defeat Iran? Why not try once again? Yes, those temptations exist. But so do the traps surrounding him. On one side, Trump appears readying himself for war, while on the other he sees that he possesses no decisive winning card. He has everything, this argument says, except divine support. A man holds an Iranian flag and a picture of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Trump will likely soon realize that the Iranians are playing him strategically; perhaps he already understands it. What seems clear in this narrative is that nobody in Iran intends to reach an agreement with Trump unless he fully accepts defeat. Talk of negotiations is viewed merely as a tactic to buy time. Trump, according to this perspective, must lose. It is presented not as a possibility, but as an inevitability. Trump must pay a price. America must pay a price. Trump must weaken America, strip it of credibility, and bring down American hegemony. Supporters of this line of thinking point to statements previously attributed to Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In any case, the argument concludes that what must be done—and what is already being done—is steadfast resistance, whether through war or without it. Both paths have their hardships and their advantages. Short-term suffering, it says, must be endured in pursuit of long-term gains. Iran today is portrayed as standing precisely at that point. According to this analysis, offering concessions or flexibility toward Trump is not Iran’s objective, nor is it the intention of its negotiating team. The country is described as being at a peak level of internal coordination.

Iran, Oman hold talks on Hormuz Strait, discuss sovereign rights over strategic waterway --  Iranian and Omani delegations have convened a legal-technical meeting to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, arrangements for the secure passage of ships, and the sovereign rights of both nations over the waterway. The meeting was held in the Omani capital on Tuesday as part of ongoing consultations between Tehran and Muscat at several levels on bilateral relations and regional developments. The Iranian delegation was headed by Abbas Baqerpour, director general for International Legal Affairs at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, and included representatives of relevant institutions. During the negotiations, the two sides emphasized their sovereign rights and jurisdictions over the strait, stressing that it is part of the territorial waters of both countries. The Iranian delegation later met with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi for separate talks. International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez, who was also in Oman at the time, met the Iranian delegation as well, where relevant technical issues were discussed. The Strait of Hormuz is 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Iran has signed but not ratified, coastal nations may claim territorial waters extending 12 nautical miles from their shores. This creates a mathematical reality that neither side disputes. The strait is narrow enough that the territorial waters of Iran and Oman overlap or abut, leaving no high-seas corridor where international transit passage is unambiguously guaranteed. The US-Israeli war of terrorism has prompted Iran to finally put aside its longstanding diplomatic hesitation and historical reluctance over its Hormuz rights, fully enforcing its sovereign authority under the 12-mile territorial waters provision of international law to administer, regulate, and control traffic through the strait. The political deputy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGC), Rear Admiral Mohammad Akbarzadeh, said on Tuesday that Iran has fundamentally redefined the operational boundaries of the strategic waterway. “In the past, the Strait of Hormuz was defined as a limited area around islands such as Hormuz and Hengam, but today this has changed,” Akbarzadeh said. What Iran considers the scope of the strait has been expanded, stretching from the coasts of Jask and Sirik to beyond the Greater Tunb Island, and is redefined as a strategic zone, he explained. “It has expanded from a width of 20 to 30 miles in the past to over 200 to 300 miles, that is, 500 kilometers, from Jask and Sirik to beyond Qeshm Island and Greater Tunb. This is a complete crescent.”

Report: Israel Built Secret Base in Iraq To Support Bombing Campaign Against Iran - Israel established a secret military base in the desert of western Iraq to support the bombing campaign against Iran and bombed Iraqi soldiers to prevent them from finding it, The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.  Sources told the Journal that the military outpost was established just before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28 and that it was used as a logistics base for the Israeli Air Force. Israeli special forces and search and rescue teams were deployed to the base in case any Israeli fighter jets were shot down.In early March, local shepherds reported unusual military activity in the area, and Iraqi troops set out in Humvees to investigate, but they were hit by Israeli airstrikes. At the time, the Iraqi government blamed the strikes on the US. “This reckless operation was carried out without coordination or approval,” said Lt. Gen. Qais Al-Muhammadawi, a senior Iraqi military official.The Journal report has caused significant controversy in Iraq, with the Iraqi Joint Operations Command saying on Sunday that it found no evidence of a foreign military presence in western Iraq following clashes with an unidentified force on March 4.Around the same time, the US began bombing Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, or the PMF, a coalition of mainly Shia militias formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, which is part of Iraq’s security forces. During the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, US bases and other assets in Iraq came under heavy drone attacks, and some were claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, another group of Shia factions that includes some of the PMF militias.The US killed dozens of PMF fighters in its airstrikes in March, and one US attack on March 25 killed seven Iraqi soldiers. The US backs the Iraqi military against ISIS remnants in the country, though according to recent media reports, it has been withholding funding to pressure Baghdad over its ties with its neighbor, Iran.The US has controlled Iraq’s oil revenue since the 2003 invasion, giving Washington significant leverage over Baghdad, something the Trump administration is using in an attempt to influence the incoming government, which will be led by Ali al-Zaid.The controversy over the reported secret military base is also causing more anger in Iraq over the government’s relationship with the US, since Washington would have been aware of the Israeli outpost. An Iraqi security source told Saudi media that military activity of an “unknown origin” was observed in western Iraq, but that “the American side informed the Iraqi forces at the time of the need not to approach the area for security reasons.”

Netanyahu Says He Made Secret Visit to the UAE During Iran War; UAE Denies the Claim - News From Antiwar.com The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the Israeli leader made a secret visit to the United Arab Emirates during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, though Abu Dhabi later denied the claim.“In the midst of Operation Roaring Lion, Prime Minister Netanyahu secretly visited the United Arab Emirates, where he met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed,” his office said in a statement. “This visit has led to a historic breakthrough in relations between Israel and the UAE.”In response, the UAE’s Foreign Ministry said that it “denies reports circulating regarding an alleged visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE, or receiving any Israeli military delegation in the country.”“The UAE reaffirms that its relations with Israel are public and conducted within the framework of the well-known and officially declared Abraham Accords, and are not based on non-transparent or unofficial arrangements. Accordingly, any claims regarding unannounced visits or undisclosed arrangements are entirely unfounded unless officially announced by the relevant authorities in the UAE,” the statement added.In response to the Israeli statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested that Iran was aware of a visit by Netanyahu to the UAE. “Netanyahu has now publicly revealed what Iran’s security services long ago conveyed to our leadership,” he wrote on X.  “Enmity with the Great People of Iran is a foolish gamble. Collusion with Israel in doing so: unforgivable. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account,” Araghchi added.Earlier this week, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that Israel had deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the UAE, along with troops to operate it, appearing to confirm reports that said the same thing. “They were the first Abraham Accord member,” Huckabee said, referring to the UAE. “But look at the benefits that they have had as a result: Israel just sent them Iron Dome batteries and personnel to help operate them. How come? Because there’s an extraordinary relationship between the UAE and Israel.”

Israel Has Killed 120 Palestinians in Gaza Since Start of Ceasefire With Iran - Israeli attacks in Gaza have significantly escalated since Israel halted strikes on Iran under the ceasefire that started on April 8, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing data from Gaza’s Health Ministry and the conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).According to the Health Ministry numbers, since April 8, Israeli attacks in the Strip have killed at least 120 Palestinians, including eight women and 13 children, 20% more fatalities than the five weeks that preceded the ceasefire with Iran.“The war is still ongoing,” Lafi Al-Najjar, a blind Palestinian living in a tent in Khan Younis who lost his nine-year-old son, Adel al-Najjar, to an April 28 Israeli strike, told Reuters. “It stopped in the announcement, but in reality and on the ground, the war has not stopped.”The ACLED recorded an increase of Israeli attacks in the month of April by 35% compared to March. Many of the attacks targeted Gaza’s police force as Israel seeks to disrupt Hamas’s control of the area of Gaza where Palestinian civilians live, which is about 40% of the territory, as the IDF has pushed the “yellow line” further west, expanding the territory it occupies.Israeli strikes continued on Wednesday with the Palestinian news agency WAFA reporting that eight people, mostly children, were injured by Israeli attacks across the Strip. A day earlier, at least one Palestinian was killed by an Israeli strike in central Gaza. The Health Ministry said on Tuesday that since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, the IDF has killed at least 856 Palestinians and injured 2,463.

Israeli Soldiers Were Given Orders To Kill All Men on Sight in Gaza: Israeli TV Report -- Israeli soldiers who killed three Israeli captives in Gaza back in 2023 have said that they were ordered to kill all men they encountered on sight, according to a TV report from Israel’s Channel 13. “A man, no matter what age, don’t play games with it; kill immediately,” one of the soldiers said, according to Middle East Eye. The soldier added that when it came to women and children, they were told, “Use your judgment, because things happen,” and that a similar order was given regarding donkeys. The soldier made the comments to Iris Haim, the mother of Yotam Haim, one of the three men killed by the IDF in Gaza City on December 15, 2023, despite the fact that they were shirtless and clearly unarmed, waving a white flag, and yelling “help” in Hebrew. The soldier, who spoke anonymously, said he was responsible for shooting one of the captives. Yotam survived the initial gunfire and retreated into a building, but when he returned to the area with his arms raised, he was shot at again and killed. Iris told Channel 13 that Israeli soldiers in Gaza had been effectively ordered to “kill every person walking on two legs.” The brigade commander admitted to her that IDF troops regularly shot and killed unarmed Palestinians, whom he labeled as “terrorists” even if they didn’t have weapons. “If a terrorist moves toward me, I try to kill him. I do not try to arrest him,” the commander said. When asked if unarmed people were also shot, the commander said, “Of course, we need to kill him – yes, even if he is completely unarmed.”

Israeli Forces Use Robots to Expand Offensive North of Lebanon’s Litani River - With US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon just days away and the “ceasefire” still reported as in place, Israel continues to launch offensives deeper into Lebanon, with ground troops from the Golani Brigade backed by robots as they moved all the way to the Litani River, and beyond. The IDF claimed that the troops killed “dozens” of Hezbollah fighters in close-quarters combat and had gained effective operational control over the forested area they expanded into. Six people were also reported killed in various Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon’s south. New evacuation orders were issued for yet more towns in southern Lebanon, and Israeli forces reportedly destroyed the solar-powered water station in Deir Mimas, overlooking to the Litani River from which it pumped drinking water for the locals.  This growing destruction and expanded offensive casts something of a pall over the direct Israel-Lebanon talks, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated that his government wants a timeline for Israeli withdrawal, as well as US guarantees Israel will actually stop attacking. That’s the perennial hope with Israeli ceasefires in Lebanon, that someone will actual compel Israel to cease firing somewhere along the line. Right now that hope rests with the US, though trying to coax Lebanon’s president into meeting directly with Netanyahu seems the immediate priority.The IDF, meanwhile, claims to have killed more than 350 Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire began, and hit 1,100 Hezbollah “targets.” The indications are that many of these targets are the like of the water station, however, and while Israel often posthumously promotes slain Lebanese to the rank of “Hezbollah commander,” the evidence is that a lot of the people they killed, both before and after the ceasefire went into effect, were innocent civilians.The Lebanese Health Ministry puts the death toll since the ceasefire began at 380. This includes a number of women, children and paramedics, so the suggestion that over 350 of them were actually Hezbollah is certainly a vast overestimation.

UN Peacekeepers Report 1,296 Israeli Strikes in Three Days in Lebanon Despite 'Ceasefire' - A growing number of Israeli strikes on Lebanon has led to death tolls once again on the rise, despite what is notionally a ceasefire in place between the two countries. The UNIFIL peacekeepers documented 1,296 trajectories of projectiles fired by Israeli forces in the past 72 hours.  More than 100 strikes were recorded in the past 24 hours alone, and at least 87 people were killed by the IDF attacks over the weekend. The UNIFIL similarly noted that incidents of Israeli troops denying them freedom of movement continues on a virtual daily basis. War monitors reported some 3,688 Israeli strikes from the beginning of the invasion to the start of May, and while May has been in a state of ceasefire throughout those numbers are only down a little bit compared to the overall rate of destruction in the war. The Lebanese Health Ministry puts the latest death toll from the war at 2,869, along with 8,730 others wounded and between 20% and 25% of the entire Lebanese population displaced by the war.Lebanese leaders are urging the US, which brokered the ceasefire, to do something to actually convince Israel to halt the attacks. So far there are no indications any such steps will be taken, and indeed, Israel tends to couch their strikes as retaliation for Hezbollah violating the ceasefire. Hezbollah was not a party to the negotiated ceasefire, though they seemed to be expected to unilaterally halt all resistance to the Israeli occupation. Hezbollah, however, made clear that they would not honor a ceasefire that didn’t involve Israeli troops withdrawing from the country.

Lebanon Ceasefire Extended 45 Days, Israel Attacks Medical Center, Killing Paramedics - - Multiple days of negotiations in Washington D.C. have ended with Israel and Lebanon extending their ceasefire for an additional 45 days. Underscoring that Lebanese officials failed to get any assurances about the ceasefire working any better than it was before, Israel immediately attacked a medical center in southern Lebanon.The US promised to proactively faciliate military-to-military communications between Israel and Lebanon, since Israel rarely communicates with Lebanon’s military. But since Israel is accustomed to attacking Lebanon without any coordination with Lebanon, its not clear what this would actually accomplish, and indeed little appears to have changed since the extension.Israel issued new evacuation orders amid the announcement, leading to more displaced people fleeing north into the parts of Lebanon that notionally aren’t under attack but realistically get hit with Israeli airstrikes intermittently as well. Then an attack on Hanouf’s medical center came.At least six people were killed in the attack, according to Lebanese officials, including three paramedics. This adds to the ever-growing number of health care workers killed in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which has seen scores of paramedics killed in Israeli airstrikes on ambulances, and yet more killed when medical centers like this one come under inevitable attack.The IDF has yet to comment on exactly why they attacked this particular medical center, particularly so soon after the ceasefire extension. The Lebanese Health Ministry suggested the attack was in violation of international law.The ceasefire, during which hundreds of Lebanese have been killed, was scheduled to expire this weekend, but will now continue through the end of June, at least on paper. Whether anything will actually be changed for the 1.2-1.5 million displaced Lebanese people remains to be seen, but the early evidence is not promising.