US oil price at a 29 month high after largest one week price increase on record; US oil supplies at a nine mo​nth high

US oil prices finished higher for the third week in a row and for the ninth time in eleven weeks, and probably by the most ever in one week, as the Israeli and US war against Iran shut off 20% of the world’s oil trade…after ending up 0.8% at a seven month high of $67.02 a barrel last week after talks between US and Iran concluded without an agreement and oil analysts raised their forecasts for 2026 oil prices, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for April delivery surged more than 10% in Asian trading on Monday, after Iran-linked strikes targeted a major Saudi oil facility, triggering fears of crude oil supply disruption and sending global oil markets into turmoil, and remained volatile across global markets as traders increasingly bet that oil supplies from Iran and other Middle Eastern producers would slow dramatically or grind to a halt altogether, and also surged during US trading as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened and looked set to last for weeks, and settled up $4.21 or 6.3% higher at $71.23 a barrel following the Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran and the retaliation by Tehran that forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities ‌across the region and disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz….oil prices climbed higher on Asian markets Tuesday, as US and Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic cut energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – about a fifth of global oil transits – creating fears of a new energy crisis that would ramp up inflation, then leapt as US markets opened on the news that Iraq had begun curtailing oil production at its key southern fields, and settled the US session $3.33 higher at $74.56 a barrel as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran widened, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz….oil prices rose about 1% in Asian trading Wednesday, amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that threatened global energy shipments, and were up about 1.6% in London trading as the conflict in the Middle East disrupted supplies to Europe, but eased Wednesday morning in New York after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reinforced Trump’s pledge that the navy was prepared to escort tankers passing through the Hormuz, after Iran had fired at commercial ships in the strait, but ended the session 10 cents higher at $74.66 a barrel, supported by widening tensions in the Middle East and the continuing halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth ​straight day….oil prices continued to rise on global markets on Thursday, as the war in the Middle East entered a sixth day with no signs of de-escalation, heightening fears of supply disruptions from the key crude-producing region, and were up 3% in early trading in New York, as diesel prices soared to three-year highs on the back of a rally in European gasoil futures, as refiners in Asia were forced to scale back operations and cancel product exports, as the Iran war hit crude deliveries from the Middle East, and settled $6.35 or 8.5% higher at $81.01 a barrel, as the escalating Iran war disrupted global fuel supplies, with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill due to attacks on tankers…oil prices fell 2% in early trading on global markets Friday, after the US declared a temporary waiver to allow Indian refiners to take in the Russian crude oil shipments that were currently stranded at sea, to relieve the panic over ​the interruption of global energy supply amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, but surged ​once again after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that the escalat​ing tensions with Iran could force all Gulf energy producers to halt exports within a week, and ​then was up about 6% in early US trading as the Iran war had paralyzed about a fifth of global petroleum supplies before the end of its first week, and continued to rally to settle $9.89 ​or 12% higher at a three year high of $90.90 a barrel on disruptions to global oil supplies due to the expanding ‌U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and thus finished the week 35.6% higher, the largest one week increase in oil futures trading history…

Meanwhile, ​US natural gas prices finished higher for the first time in ​f​ive weeks on surging global prices tied to the Iran war and on a larger than expected draw of gas from storage….after falling 4.2% to $2.859 per mmBTU last week on a seasonally small inventory draw and ​on forecasts for mild March weather, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for April delivery opened 16.7 cents higher on Monday, as prices had jumped over the weekend in response to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but trended lower through the morning to an intraday low of $2.941 at 11:45 AM, before moving upwards in a narrow range to settle 10.1 cents higher at 2.960 per mmBTU, in contrast to increases of 40% and 39% in Europe and Asia​ at the same time…natural gas prices opened higher again on Tuesday, and rose to an intraday high of $3.188 amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but faded in afternoon profit taking to settle 9.4 cents higher at $3.054 per mmBTU, as near term forecasts indicated a return of colder temps across the Midwest and East Coast by mid March…natural gas opened 9.5 cent lower on Wednesday and slid to as low as $2.891 by 10:55AM, as bearish weather forecasts weighed on the market, before ​p​artly recovering to settle 13.7 cents lower at $2.917 per mmBTU, as traders awaited word on possible discussions to end the war in Iran, a conflict that injected fears of global supply shortages​, and ​had sent prices higher to start the week….natural gas prices hovered close to $3.00 early Thursday as traders braced for the latest government inventory data​, and ​for updates on the war in Iran, but were unmoved when the EIA storage report confirmed a steeper withdrawal than survey averages predicted, as sinking demand on spring like weather held futures in check, but rallied after midday to settle 8.6 cents higher at $3.003 per mmBTU as the war in Iran and steady LNG demand outweighed fading heating demand….natural gas futures moved higher to start Friday's session, as traders weighed waning weather demand and strong production against solid LNG activity, a widened storage deficit​, and the uncertainties imposed by war in the Middle East, and settled the session 18.3 cents higher at $3.186 per mmBTU on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than had been expected​, and on soaring global energy prices and supply concerns as the U.S.-Iran war escalated, and thus ended 11.4% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending February 27th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 132 billion cubic feet to 1,886 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 115 billion cubic feet, or 6.8% above the 1,771 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on February 27th of last year, but 43 billion cubic feet, or 2.2% below the five-year average of 1,929 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 27th of February over the most recent five years….the 132 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 121 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage ​that was forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts ahead of the report, and was also more than the 106 billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also quite a bit more than the average 96 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late February week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 27th indicated that after a decrease in our oil imports, a decrease in our oil exports, an increase in our oil refining, and a modest increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 20th time in forty weeks, and for the 48th time in eighty-five weeks, but by quite a bit less than the prior week’s increase, which had been a three year high….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 335,000 barrels per day to 6,324,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 136,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 316,000 barrels per day to average 3,997,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,327,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending February 27th, an average of 19,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 1,000 barrels per day lower at 553,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 6,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 13,696,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,576,000 barrels per day during the February 27th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,841,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 27th, an average of 180,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 496,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending February 27th averaged a rounded 239,000 more barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -239,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…moreover, since 1,342,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 1,582,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore nonsense.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 496,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories all came as an average of 496,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while the amount of oil in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve was unchanged… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,578,000 barrels per day last week, which was 10.6% more than the 5,965,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be a rounded 6,000 barrels per day lower at 13,696,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 3,000 barrels per day lower at 13,277,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day lower at 419,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 89.2% of their capacity while processing those 15,841,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 27th, up from 88.6% the prior week, with the ongoing low utilization rate likely due to seasonal maintenance and temporary shutdowns, as refineries ​a​re reconfigured to produce summer blends of fuel….the 15,841,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was 3.0% more than the 15,387,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending February 28th of 2025, ​a​nd 0.9% more than the 15,696,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending February 28th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.9%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 119,000 barrels per day to 9,334,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 27th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 223,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was still 3.1% less than the 9,634,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending February 28th of last year, and 4.3% less than the gasoline production of 9,757,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending February 28th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 61,000 barrels per day to 4,812,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 136,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 5.2% more than the 4,575,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending February 28th of 2025, and 3.5% more than the 4,648,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending February 28th, 2020....

Even after this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the third time in sixteen weeks, decreasing by 1,704,000 barrels to 253,130,000 barrels during the week ending February 27th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,011,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by more this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 441,000 barrels per day to 8,292,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline fell by 125,000 barrels per day to 438,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 298,000 barrels per day to 1,067,000 barrels per day … In spite of thirty-four gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-six weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.6% higher than last February 28th’s gasoline inventories of 248,271,000 barrels, and about 4% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillate rose for the twelfth time in sixteen weeks, increasing by 429,000 barrels to 120,780,000 barrels during the week ending February 27th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 252,000 barrels to during the prior week… Our distillates supplies rose a bit more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 197,000 barrels to 3,698,000 barrels per day, and even though our imports of distillates fell by 227,000 barrels per day to 174,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates fell by 3,000 barrels per day to 1,228,000 barrels per day... Even after 21 additions to distillates inventories over the past 34 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.4% higher than the 119,154,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on February 28th of 2025, but still about 3% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 30th time over the past year, increasing by 3475,000 barrels over the week, from 435,804,000 barrels on February 20th to a nine mo​nth high of 439,279,000 barrels on February 27th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 15,989,000 barrels over the prior week….Even after this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 3% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 34% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the end of February over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this February 27th were 1.3% more than the 433,775,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on February 28th of 2025, but were 2.1% less than the 448,530,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March 1st of 2024, and 8.5% less than the 480,207,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on February 17th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by one over the week ending March 6th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by four, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was down by two, and miscellaneous rigs were down by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of March 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 27th) and this week’s (March 6th) count, the third column shows last week’s February 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 7th of March, 2025…

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Southeast Ohio officials seek ban on injecting fracking wastewater underground -- Nearly 3 billion gallons of oil and gas wastewater have been injected underground in southeastern Ohio — pumped deep beneath the feet of residents who say they’ve had little say in the process. “This is our town. These are our communities,” said Dee Arnold of Washington County for Safe Drinking Water. “We should have a say in what goes into our ground.” Especially when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says that wastewater is often radioactive. Officials from Marietta, Muskingum Township and nine water authorities delivered a letter to Gov. Mike DeWine on Thursday calling for a moratorium on new injection wells until the state studies their impact on groundwater. “We’re asking the governor not to forget us out here,” Muskingum Township Trustee Jay Huck said. “We are tired of being forgotten about.” Hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking, dramatically increased oil and gas production in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations over the past 15 years. The drilling technique uses a high-pressure mix of water, sand and chemicals to crack underground shale and release oil and natural gas trapped inside. But more drilling means more waste. Each well produces salt and chemical-laden wastewater called brine that flows back from deep underground during the drilling process. According to the U.S. EPA, this wastewater can contain heavy metals and concentrated amounts of naturally occurring radioactive materials. Radioactivity varies depending on the geology of the rock formations where drilling occurs. Because of those contaminants, companies cannot dump brine on the ground or send it to most wastewater treatment plants. Federal and state laws require it be stored in specialized disposal wells.And much of the region’s brine ends up in Ohio. The Buckeye State has 232 active Class II injection wells, compared with 18 in Pennsylvania and 70 in West Virginia.“About 50% of the waste injected into Ohio is from out of state,” said Hillary Royster with Washington County for Safe Drinking Water.Washington County is a hotspot for injection wells in Ohio, and locals aren’t convinced that’s a good thing.There’s a fear that wastewater injected deep underground can migrate through old oil and gas wells and work its way into their farmfields and drinking water.In 2021, wastewater from injection wells linked to DeepRock Disposal Solutions migrated through underground pathways in Noble County, triggering a blowout that cost the state more than $1.2 million to contain.State records showed the brine traveled five miles from the injection site.“Want a full study of brine migration within Washington County,” Marietta City Council President Susan Vessels said.

EOG 2026 Utica Program: 3 Rigs, 3 Frac Crews, Drill 85 Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, EOG Resources reported strong full-year 2025 results, earning $5.0 billion in net income and returning $4.7 billion in free cash flow to shareholders. For 2026, EOG announced a $6.5 billion capital plan targeting 13% total production growth and increased operational efficiency. A central component of this strategy is EOG’s Ohio Utica play, which the company has identified as a top priority alongside the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford. Following its transformational Encino Energy acquisition last August, the company expects significantly higher activity in the Utica throughout 2026.

Ascent Resources to Boost Land Spending Nearly 40% in 2026 - Hart Energy - E&P . The company produced 2.15 Bcfe per day, representing a 4% year-over-year and maintaining its position as the largest natural gas producer in Ohio...

Europeans Visit Pittsburgh to Talk About Buying More U.S. LNG -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Marking the tenth anniversary of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, European Union (EU) and American officials convened in Pittsburgh on Friday for an all-day conference, “EU-U.S. LNG Cooperation 2.0,” which was held at the Heinz History Center. The purpose of the meeting was to reinforce a critical strategic energy partnership. Since the first shipment in 2016, and accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. LNG has transformed European energy security by enabling a dramatic shift away from dependence on Russian gas. As Europe seeks to eliminate Russian gas entirely, the U.S. has become the world’s leading exporter

PA Republicans Propose More Drilling On and Under State-Owned Land --- Marcellus Drilling News -- During the Pennsylvania House Appropriations Committee hearing held on March 2, House Republicans advocated for expanded shale gas drilling on state forest lands and beneath state parks to bolster revenue. Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR) Secretary Cindy Adams Dunn, a radical leftist, noted that current drilling provides an average of $95 million annually but has already caused the “loss” of 30,000 acres of core forest land. Republican members suggested that revising the long-term leasing moratorium could generate an additional $250 million, which fell on deaf Democrat ears.

Anti-Fracking CROWD Lawsuit Against West Deer Gets Day in Court -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Olympus Energy (now owned by EQT) drills in the Greater Pittsburgh region, in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. In 2021, Olympus applied to build a new well pad in a rural part of Allegheny County, in West Deer Township. So-called “concerned citizens” got amped up to oppose the project. They succeeded when town supervisors rejected the Dionysus well pad (see West Deer Township Denies Olympus Permit to Build Shale Pad). The “concerned citizens” then attempted to block a second well pad, the Leto pad, proposed by Olympus in another West Deer location (see West Deer Antis Try to Block 2nd Olympus Shale Well Pad). However, West Deer supervisors approved the Leto pad in June 2023, which set off the antis who threatened to sue (see West Deer Approves Olympus “Leto” Well Pad, Antis Pledge to Sue). They followed through with a lawsuit. The case was argued before the state’s Commonwealth Court yesterday.

WV Senate Bill 641 Modifies Oil & Gas Storage Tank Regulations -- Marcellus Drilling News - Inthe closing hours of the 2014 West Virginia legislative session, the legislature passed Senate Bill (SB) 373, the Aboveground Storage Tank Act (see Fate of 3 WV Laws that Impact Marcellus/Utica Drilling). The bill, which was signed into law, was in response to a chemical leak that affected the drinking water for 300,000 West Virginia residents. Even though the leak was not related to oil and gas drilling (it was related to coal mining), the new rules governing aboveground storage tanks for chemicals affect several industries, including the Marcellus/Utica (see Impact of WV’s New Chemical Tank Law on Marcellus Drillers). Over the years, several attempts have been made to relax the over-restrictive new rules for the oil and gas industry. Another attempt is underway in this year’s legislative session: Senate Bill (SB) 641, which passed the Senate yesterday and now sits with the House.

M-U Gas Begins Flowing Through WV’s Morgantown Connector Pipeline - Hope Gas is a Local Distribution Company (LDC, i.e., utility company) that provides gas service to approximately 140,000 residential, industrial, and commercial customers in 39 West Virginia counties. The company monitors and maintains over 7,000 miles of pipelines that safely deliver West Virginia natural gas to many homes and commercial and industrial sites. In September 2023, Hope Gas asked the West Virginia Public Service Commission for permission to build a new 30-mile pipeline in Monongalia County (see Hope Gas Seeks to Build 30-Mile Gas Pipe in Monongalia County, WV). Hope said the project, with an estimated price tag of $177 million, was necessary to meet the growing demand for natural gas in the Morgantown area and to ensure reliable service for existing customers. Good news! The pipeline has begun flowing.

Hope Gas Announces 30-Mile M-U Pipeline to WV Data Center Campus - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, West Virginia Governor Pat Morrisey and utility company Hope Gas announced a $250 million investment to expand natural gas infrastructure in Mason County, West Virginia. The centerpiece is a 30-mile, 24-inch pipeline scheduled for construction between April and December 2026. This pipeline, dubbed the “Prosperity Line,” is designed to power major regional developments, including an initial 2 gigawatts (GW) of power generation at the AIPC Monarch Compute Campus, natural gas for Babcock and Wilcox projects, and extending natgas service to local homes and small businesses.

M-U NatGas Could Play Bigger Role as Middle East War Strains LNG -- Marcellus Drilling News - As the conflict with Iran and the halt in LNG production in Qatar triggered a 100% spike in European natural gas prices, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) has solidified its role as a critical global energy stabilizer. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. became Europe’s primary supplier, a shift highlighted at a recent Pittsburgh energy conference. EQT CEO Toby Rice and other Pennsylvania producers argue that expanding Marcellus Shale exports is essential for allied security. Despite infrastructure bottlenecks, U.S. LNG exports are projected to grow significantly by 2030, offering a reliable alternative to volatile Middle Eastern and Russian energy supplies.

CNX Gains From Technological Development & Strategic Capital Investment - CNX Resources Corp. CNX has been gaining from technological development, systematic capital investment, strong volume growth, strategic cost management and a clean energy initiative that boosts performance. CNX focuses on the Appalachian Basin and plans to use new technologies to develop low-cost natural gas to meet the demand for clean energy in the region. The use of low-cost natural gas reduces emissions and makes it easily affordable to consumers. Commodity price volatility is effectively managed with a strong hedge strategy. The company is aimed at exporting Appalachian natural gas to other parts of the United States and the world, creating new growth opportunities. It intends to start production from 27 Marcellus wells and three deep Utica wells in 2026, which is expected to increase the company’s overall production volume. The company plans to invest $556-$586 million in the 2026-time frame. Most capital expenditures are expected to be allocated for drilling and completion activities, while the remaining fund is anticipated to be used for enhancing land holdings and expanding midstream infrastructure. The capital-intensive Oil and energy will benefit from the decline in the Fed rate to 3.5- 3.75%. In addition to CNX, other Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production, like Murphy Oil MUR, APA Corporation APA and Antero Resources AR, will see a drop in capital servicing expenses due to lower interest rates. MUR plans to invest $1.2-$1.3 billion in 2026. The company is aimed at allocating 75% of capital expenditure for development activities, 12% for exploration drilling initiatives and 6% for appraisal projects. APA intends to invest $2.1 billion in upstream capital in 2026, with $230M for GranMorgu and $70M for Suriname Block 58. AR expects to allocate approximately $1 billion in 2026 for its drilling and completion activities. CNX continues to expand its footprint through strategic acquisitions. In September 2025, the company announced the purchase of nearly 23,000 acres of Utica Shale oil-and-gas rights for $50 million beneath the Apex Energy footprint. The transaction adds strategic value by allowing CNX to use Apex’s existing infrastructure. This deal is expected to boost operational efficiency and increase production volume.

Positioning for the Energy S-Curve: CNX's Low-Carbon Infrastructure Bet - - The shift to a low-carbon economy is more than just replacing traditional fuels—it's about constructing a new foundation for a digital, decarbonized future. CNX Resources is positioning itself at the forefront of this transformation, redefining its assets as essential, low-carbon infrastructure rather than conventional fossil fuel sources. The company's approach centers on two main strategies: utilizing its established shale resources for their environmental benefits and integrating advanced technologies to address the rapidly growing energy needs of sectors like artificial intelligence. CNX's core focus is on producing premium, low-carbon products from its Marcellus and Utica shale holdings. The company is not simply selling natural gas; it is capturing and monetizing the environmental attributes generated during production. By developing markets for carbon credits, methane performance certificates, and emission reductions, CNX is transforming its operations into new revenue streams linked to sustainability. This innovative approach sets CNX apart in today's energy sector. One of the most immediate uses for CNX's infrastructure is supporting the digital economy. As demand for energy from artificial intelligence and data centers accelerates, CNX has introduced a unique solution: blending 15% ultra-negative carbon intensity remediated mine gas with 85% local shale gas to deliver net-zero electricity. This blend, verified through the company's Radical Transparency program, offers a dependable, flexible, and locally sourced alternative to an overburdened grid. CNX highlights its ability to quickly scale up to meet data center needs, enabling new projects to launch within 18 to 24 months. CNX's operational model is built on proprietary technology designed to cut both emissions and costs. Through its AutoSepSM Technologies joint venture with Deep Well Services, CNX has implemented an automated flowback system that virtually eliminates methane emissions during well completion. Additionally, the company is electrifying drilling rigs in partnership with Dynamis, reducing fuel use and on-site emissions. These advancements are not minor tweaks—they are fundamental to creating a scalable, lower-cost, and lower-impact production system. By leveraging its extensive shale resources, prioritizing environmental attributes, and deploying cutting-edge emission-reduction technologies, CNX is laying the groundwork for the next wave of growth—from AI-driven data centers to industrial decarbonization. The company is betting on the rapid adoption of foundational, low-carbon infrastructure, positioning itself to capture significant value as the market evolves. CNX’s vision extends beyond gas production to building a comprehensive, low-carbon infrastructure from the ground up. This ambitious goal requires substantial investment and proprietary technology to minimize emissions and costs, creating a scalable platform for the energy transition. Central to this effort is the AutoSepSM Technologies joint venture with Deep Well Services, which delivers an automated flowback system that eliminates methane emissions during well completions. CNX is also capturing waste heat from compressor stations to generate zero-emission power for its operations, turning what was once a byproduct into a valuable energy source and further shrinking its carbon footprint. To fund this technological build-out, CNX is making a significant capital commitment. In 2026, the company plans to invest $556–$586 million, primarily targeting drilling and completion activities. This investment aims to bring 27 Marcellus and three deep Utica wells online, boosting overall production. To support these initiatives, CNX recently completed a $500 million senior notes offering, ensuring the financial flexibility needed to execute its plans and advance its technology without being hindered by short-term cash flow fluctuations. In summary, CNX is taking a comprehensive approach to infrastructure development—deploying proprietary technology to reduce emissions, investing heavily to expand capacity, and securing additional funding to mitigate risks. This integrated strategy is how the next generation of energy infrastructure is being built.

Big Green Sues to Block Clean-Burning Gas Plant in Bartow County, GA - Marcellus Drilling News- Two radical environmental groups, the Southern Environmental Law Center and Sierra Club, have sued Georgia regulators over the approval of four clean-burning natural gas turbines at Georgia Power’s Plant Bowen. The radicals claim that the expansion at Bowen (in Taylorsville, Bartow County, Georgia) will release hundreds of tons of smog-forming volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) annually, thereby worsening air quality in the Atlanta region (Taylorsville is about 40 miles from Atlanta as the crow flies). The lawsuit claims the Georgia Environmental Protection Division bypassed stricter permitting requirements intended for areas with high ozone levels. Typical lawfare tactic.

U.S. NGLs Hit Record 7.5 MMb/d Production on Ethane-Driven Gains - U.S. NGL production climbed to a record 7.5 MMb/d in 2025, up from 7.0 MMb/d in 2024, marking a new all-time high (left graph). The increase was led by ethane. Ethane production rose from 2.9 MMb/d in 2024 to 3.1 MMb/d in 2025 — an 8% year-over-year increase — compared with roughly 5% growth in other NGLs. As a result, ethane’s share of the NGL barrel moved up (right graph), reaching about 41.5% in 2025, continuing a multi-year climb from just under 38% in 2019. Most of the incremental barrels came from PADD 3, particularly the Texas Inland and New Mexico sub-PADDs — in other words, the Permian. Ultra-low and at times negative regional gas prices made maximum ethane recovery economically compelling. With gas takeaway constrained, producers had every incentive to strip out as much ethane as possible: recovering ethane reduces residue gas volumes that must compete for limited pipeline egress, while Y-grade NGL takeaway capacity has been far less constrained. The result was a sharp lift in ethane extraction and a new record for total U.S. NGL supply in 2025.

Surprise Propane Build Driven by PADD 3 as Exports Fall | RBN Energy The EIA reported total U.S. propane/propylene inventories increased by 819 Mbbl for the week ended February 27, a sharp contrast to industry expectations for a 1.3 MMbbl draw and the average draw of 1.9 MMbbl for the week. The build — largely driven by increases in PADD 3 — was the largest for this reporting week since our records began in 2011. Total inventories were 51% higher than the same period last year, with U.S. propane/propylene stocks now at 73.4 MMbbl, or 24.7 MMbbl (51%) above the same week in 2025, 13.3 MMbbl (22%) above the five-year maximum, and 26 MMbbl (55%) above the five-year average. PADD 3 propane inventories increased by 815 Mbbl for the week, bringing total regional stocks to 52.6 MMbbl. Inventories are 20.7 MMbbl (65%) higher than the same week in 2025 and 14.7 MMbbl (39%) above the five-year maximum. Stocks are also 23.4 MMbbl (80%) above the five-year average. Weekly exports of propane reported by the EIA were 1.6 MMb/d, down 353 Mb/d from the previous week and below the year-to-date average of 1.92 MMb/d. Reported exports were also below the four-week average of 1.87 MMb/d and the 2.25 MMb/d reported in the same week last year.

Born To Be Wild – U.S. Propane’s Wild Journey from Lab Discovery to Vital Consumer Fuel | RBN Energy --Today, U.S. propane is a $75 billion-a-year business involving a maze of natural gas processing plants and salt caverns connected to pipelines, fractionators, rail facilities, truck racks, retail tanks and export docks. But like many vital energy industries, the propane business began with a handful of scientists and entrepreneurs who experimented with something they didn’t really understand. Over decades of development, propane has powered Olympic kitchens, lifted hot-air balloons across the English Channel, and helped turn a quiet “mount” of southeastern Texas into the center of the global NGL universe. Along the way, propane attracted larger-than-life personalities and true “born to be wild” characters who pushed the business forward in unique ways. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the history of U.S. propane. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing how the propane industry works today, who does what, how molecules move, and why it matters for prices and reliability. In Part 1 of our recent series on the propane market, we walked through propane’s journey from wellhead to burner tip and looked at the major demand segments — industrial, petrochemical, commercial, residential and agricultural — and the roles that processing plants, refineries, wholesalers and retailers play along the way. We showed how propane produced at fractionators and refineries often makes its first stop in vast underground salt-cavern storage, then moves through a complex web of pipelines, railcars, and transport trucks before reaching an end user. In Part 2, we detailed the role of wholesalers, the companies that sell propane to retailers by aggregating supplies, operating logistics networks, trading physical volumes, and other supply functions. In Part 3, we outlined retailers’ roles and functions in the market. (For a more in-depth dive into the fascinating propane industry, check out our Propane Master Class Encore, now available online.) But none of this would be possible without the early discoveries of propane, dating back to the 1800s, when scientists, mostly chemists, were experimenting with a hydrocarbon gas they barely understood. Those experiments — and the messy trial-and-error that followed — laid the groundwork for the systems we might take for granted. Today, we’ll highlight the discoveries and adventures that shaped propane’s story and help explain why it plays the role it does in the world.

Judge Blocks Shell’s Effort to Revisit Venture Global LNG Contract Ruling -Shell plc’s gambit to overturn an arbitration decision in Venture Global Inc.’s favor has ended after the New York Supreme Court refused to hear its petition to vacate. At A Glance:

• Calcasieu Pass dispute affirmed
• Venture Global’s financial risk falls
• Discovery request denied by court

NY Court Blocks Shell’s Attempt to Overturn VG LNG Arbitration -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (CP) LNG export facility in Louisiana began operations in March 2022 (see Calcasieu Pass LNG Loads Inaugural Cargo; Sabine Pass LNG Expands). Typically, a new LNG facility will load and ship several (maybe two or three) cargoes to “work out the kinks” and ensure everything is working as advertised. Venture Global, using loopholes in its signed contracts, maintained that it was working out the kinks long after it began shipping. After *hundreds* of cargoes were shipped, CP’s customers were still not receiving their contracted (at lower prices) shipments. Shell, along with several other customers, sued (see Shell, Edison, BP File for Arbitration Against Venture Global LNG). Shell lost its arbitration case, but two months later, BP won its case. So, Shell appealed the case that was rejected in the New York County Supreme Court. And lost…

U.S. LNG Capacity Faces Test as 2 Wars Rage, Spot Market Poised for Chaos - U.S. LNG plants have a limited ability to fill supply gaps if war in the Middle East continues for a prolonged period, which is likely to strengthen competition for spot cargoes, according to industry experts.Chart comparing annual LNG exports from the United States and Qatar from 2008 to 2025, showing rapid growth in U.S. LNG shipments surpassing Qatar by 2025 at more than 100 million tons.At A Glance:
Global buyers brace for tighter spot market
U.S. unlikely to offset Qatar disruptions
Maintenance season limits U.S. LNG flexibility

Cameron LNG Back Online Following Brief Outage Amid Global Supply Shock - Operations were ramping back up at Cameron LNG in Louisiana on Tuesday after the plant was briefly shut down on Monday afternoon. At A Glance:

• All three trains shut down Monday
• Feed gas nominations back to normal
• Vessel loading at terminal

Venture Global’s CP2 LNG Project Cost Climbs $4 Billion to $33.5 Billion -Venture Global says construction costs for its CP2 LNG export project in Louisiana have risen by $4 billion, pushing the total expected investment above $33 billion.(Reuters) — The anticipated construction cost for two phases of Venture Global's CP2 LNG liquified natural gas project has jumped by $4 billion, or just under 14%, the company said in an annual report released earlier this week.It cited design modifications, inflation and the potential impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump,Venture Global is the second largest LNG exporter in the U.S. and was responsible for most of the output growth in the country last year. The company is currently constructing phase one of the 35 million metric tons per annum facility in Louisiana.

• Venture Global estimates the cost of building the plant at between $32.5 billion and $33.5 billion, up from a previous $28 billion to $29.5 billion.
• Venture Global imports modular plants from Italy then puts them together in the U.S.
• Venture Global did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
• As of December 31, 2025, the CP2 Project had 3.0 MMtpy of nameplate capacity that had not yet been sold under a long term contract, Venture Global said.

U.S. LNG Feed Gas Slips as Corpus Christi Maintenance, Cameron Issues Weigh on Flows A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers, North America LNG Export Flow Tracker chart showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas volumes from Feb. 23 to March 4, 2026, ranging roughly between 16.9 and 19.1 Bcf/d, with detailed breakdown of deliveries and capacity utilization at major LNG export terminals including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Cameron, Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, plus a U.S. map marking facility locations and total deliveries to LNG export facilities of about 18.4 million dekatherms on March 4.

• 80,000 MMBtu/d: Feed gas nominations to Corpus Christi LNG could be limited through the end of the week during maintenance at a critical compressor station, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Activities at the Sinton Compressor Station on the Corpus Christi Pipeline (CCPL) are expected to limit deliveries by about 80,000 MMBtu/d at the height of restrictions. Nominations to the terminal have been falling since Sunday (March 1), reflecting past maintenance events at the facility.
• 19.2 Bcf/d: U.S. feed gas nominations to Gulf Coast terminals have pulled back slightly over the week as disruptions at Cameron LNG and an end of elevated nominations to Golden Pass in Texas cut into overall demand. However, Wood Mackenzie estimated nominations to average 19.2 Bcf/d over the next seven days, about 4 Bcf/d above the year ago period. Roughly 2 Bcf/d has been nominated to Golden Pass since late February during operational test, but flows have reduced to near 0% capacity as of the Tuesday evening cycle, according to pipeline data.
• 2.55 Mt: Despite a global call on LNG spot cargoes during QatarEnergy’s force majeure, U.S. LNG exports could be heading to a week/week decline. U.S. facilities are expected to ship 2.55 million tons (Mt) the week of March 2, according to predictive Kpler data. The week could post a 0.27 Mt week/week decline as maintenance events and shipping disruptions ripple through the market. Waning demand for U.S. LNG is driven by Asia, which is expected to see more than five additional cargoes from within the Pacific Basin during the week.
• $278,250/day: Demand for more shipping capacity and spot cargoes to Europe is triggering a shock in LNG vessel prices, especially for ships available to load U.S. LNG. The prompt average spot rate for vessels to Europe jumped $116,500 Wednesday to $278,250/day, according to Spark Commodities data. Rates for Asian shipping also rose by almost the same rate to $207,500/day. The U.S. arbitrage margin swung wildly Wednesday by around $3, briefly closing out from Asia before narrowing again to favor buyers in the Pacific, according to Spark Commodities data lead Qasim Afghan.

DOE Approves Export Expansion at Corpus Christi LNG -Marcellus Drilling News -- The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has granted non-FTA export authorization for Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG expansion, specifically Mid-Scale Trains 8 and 9. This 3.28 MMTPA addition establishes the terminal as the second-largest U.S. LNG export project, with a total authorized capacity of 4.45 Bcf/d. Following a June 2025 investment decision, construction is proceeding alongside the Stage 3 Project, which successfully completed four trains in 2025. As the U.S. leads global LNG exports, Cheniere is already seeking further capacity increases through 2026. This authorization lasts until 2050, securing the facility’s long-term role in international energy markets. Marcellus/Utica molecules help feed this facility, so this is good news for our region!

Is a Glut Really Coming for LNG? Charif Souki Separates ‘Mythology From Reality’ for the U.S. Industry - Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast in which NGI’s Christopher Lenton and Jacob Dick sit down with former Cheniere Energy Inc. CEO Charif Souki.

LNG Markets Face Extreme Volatility as Middle East War Intensifies, Supply Disruptions Indefinite - An intensifying war in the Middle East wreaked havoc in energy markets Tuesday, with natural gas bearing the worst of it, but analysts predicted supply disruptions could be short-lived despite American and Israeli claims that their attacks against Iran could last weeks or longer. Chart of European Union gas storage as of 01-Mar-2026, showing inventories at 343 TWh, 30.1% full, below prior year and five-year average, with historical storage trends from 2021-2026. At A Glance:
Freight rates surge
Asia’s call for cargoes strengthens
Supply disruptions could be short

Construction crew hits natural gas pipeline in Jackson - A construction crew hit a gas line on Tuesday in Jackson on Cohea Street. According to an Atmos statement, the crew that hit the line was unrelated to Atmos Energy, but the pipeline is owned by Atmos. Atmos sent personnel to suspend natural gas service to this part of their system, inspect the line, and make necessary repairs. The Jackson Fire Department also supported the repair crew. The statement Atmos issued said, “The most common cause of outside natural gas leaks is digging or construction that disturbs natural gas pipelines. If you nick, scrape, or dent a natural gas pipeline, call 911 and then call Atmos Energy’s emergency number at 866-322-8667 so we can inspect the pipeline and make any needed repairs. Even minor damage can weaken a pipeline and lead to a future leak.”

Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-4-26 - Spot month nat gas extended its rally Tuesday amid broad based bullish sentiment across the energy complex while near term forecasts indicated a return of colder temps across the Midwest and East Coast by mid March. April NG settled 9.4 cents higher at $3.054. While the eastern US will see widespread much above normal temps over the next 5 days, colder conditions will begin filtering into the Northern Plains, Upper and Great Lakes regions during the 6-14 day period. Over the coming week, heating demand is forecast to ease to seasonal lows around 18 BCF/d. However, stronger gas fired heating demand across the Upper Midwest and NE is expected to lift res/comm usage to more than 30 BCF/d by the middle of March. This week’s storage report covering the week ended Feb 27 is likely to be supportive following last week’s cold driven surge in demand. Total demand rose nearly 10 BCF/d week over week to more than 132 BCF/d, with res/comm usage accounting for 6.8 BCF/d of the increase. Power sector demand also increased by 1.8 BCF/d. Platts is calling for a draw of 125 BCF, which exceeds both the 5 yr avg pull of 96 BCF and last year’s pull of 106 BCF, and would reduce stocks to 1.893 TCF. LNG flows were revised lower for both Monday and Tuesday, to 16.9 BCF/d and 17.8 BCF/d respectively, amid an outage at Cameron LNG. Production there is rebounding, with total feedgas demand estimated at 18.5 BCF/d as of this morning. The terminal continues working toward full restoration. Prices are trading lower this morning as bearish fundamentals outweigh Middle East supply risks. Reports that Iran may be in talks to end the conflict have tempered risk sentiment, though longer dated contracts are not down as sharply, reflecting lingering concerns over protracted supply risks.

Natural gas price drops after Tuesday rally as traders eye EIA storage report, Cameron LNG restart - Natural gas futures in the U.S. pulled back Wednesday, retreating after Tuesday’s jump as traders zeroed in on the latest domestic weather signals and export numbers. By 12:53 p.m. ET, April gas had dropped 10.4 cents to $2.95 per mmBtu, down 3.41%. On the ETF front, BOIL tumbled 7.29%, while KOLD gained 7.21%. 1 The move is catching attention: traders have been working to bake a Middle East risk premium into a contract dominated by U.S. weather, storage, and bottleneck issues. If that premium even slightly unwinds, screens can flip in a hurry. April gas climbed 9.4 cents to finish at $3.054 on Tuesday, after touching $3.188 earlier in the session. Still, “bearish fundamentals outweigh Middle East supply risks,” noted Heather Wine, senior risk manager at StoneX, in a daily note. She flagged unseasonably warm weather across wide areas for the next five days, plus a dip in LNG feedgas flowing earlier in the week with the Cameron LNG outage. As for Thursday’s storage report, Wine expects numbers could remain supportive; Platts projects a 125 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 27. 2 The price jolt has been felt more acutely overseas. Asia’s spot LNG benchmark for April delivery shot up 68.52% on Tuesday, landing at $25.393/mmBtu. Northwest Europe recorded its own jump, with April spot LNG climbing 57% to $15.479/mmBtu, according to Reuters, after the conflict disrupted shipments and forced a halt to Qatari output. “Front month arbs have increased significantly,” Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan said, adding those arbitrage routes are now “open to Asia” from a number of export points. 3 The gap partly explains why U.S. gas prices have been so jumpy this week; just a few LNG headlines are enough to sway sentiment, despite the fact that U.S. export capacity can’t scale up in a hurry. Still, the underlying drivers remain weather and storage. Working gas in storage landed at 2,018 Bcf as of Feb. 20, per the latest U.S. government data—a weekly drop of 52 Bcf. Next update comes March 5. 4 The weekly natural gas storage data from the EIA is set for 10:30 a.m. Eastern every Thursday, unless holidays prompt a change, the agency’s release schedule shows. 5 Still, risks cut both ways here. If LNG feedgas demand snaps back, March turns colder, or storage withdrawals outpace forecasts, prices could rebound. On the flip side, more export hiccups or a stubbornly mild stretch would put pressure on the contract, possibly sending it sliding toward lows again. Traders are eyeing the Middle East for signs the turmoil lingers, keeping global LNG buyers scrambling for shipments. On the other hand, chatter about de-escalation keeps trimming that premium. The next trigger for U.S. gas comes with Thursday’s EIA storage report covering the week ended Feb. 27. After that, traders will be watching for new mid-March weather outlooks and looking for confirmation that Cameron’s outage is no longer weighing on the market.

US natgas prices climb 3% on big storage withdrawal, US-Iran war energy supply concerns (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal, forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected, and soaring global energy prices as the U.S.-Iran war escalated. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.6 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.003 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Even though the shutdown ‌of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export production in Qatar removed about 20% of global LNG supplies, prices in the U.S. have not reacted much because the country was already exporting all the LNG it could produce. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas. U.S. gas is up about 6% so far this week versus 54% in Europe. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 132 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 27. Analysts noted that was higher than usual for this time of year because homes and businesses cranked up their heaters last week as a winter storm dumped massive amounts of snow in the Northeast and other ⁠parts of the country. Last week's storage withdrawal was more than the 121-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 106 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average decline of 96 bcf for the period. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 124.0 bcfd this week to 111.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.0 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February. Gas flows ‌to QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas were on track to fall to near zero on Wednesday and Thursday after averaging around 0.2 bcfd over the prior seven days. Energy analysts expect the plant to start producing its first LNG in coming weeks. In the Middle East, QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared a force majeure due to the Iran war, causing gas prices around the world to soar. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the U.S. and Australia. Gas traded near $18 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and near $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Rise 6% on Demand Forecasts, Iran Supply Risks - U.S. natural gas futures climbed 6% to a three-week high as stronger demand forecasts and escalating Iran tensions pushed global energy prices higher. (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 6% to a three-week high on March 6 on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and on soaring global energy prices and supply concerns as the U.S.-Iran war escalated. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.3 cents, or 6.1%, to settle at $3.186 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since Feb. 13. Even though the shutdown of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export production in Qatar removed about 20% of global LNG supplies, prices in the U.S. have not reacted as much as elsewhere because the country was already exporting all the LNG it could produce. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas. U.S. gas was up about 11% this week versus 54% in Europe. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 21st day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. In Arizona, meanwhile, next-day power prices at the Palo Verde hub fell to $3.45 per megawatt-hour (MWh), its lowest since hitting a record low of 35 cents in May 2024. That compares with averages of $24.26 per MWh so far in 2026, $34.82 in 2025, and $59.94 over the past five years (2021-2025). Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (billion cubic feet per day) so far in March, up from 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 billion cubic feet per day in December 2025. Energy analysts said mostly mild weather this week likely allowed energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual, which should keep stockpiles about 2% below normal for the week ended March 6, the same as the week ended Feb. 27. Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 21, which should keep heating demand and the amount of gas energy firms need to pull from storage low in coming weeks. The weather, however, is still expected to be a little cooler in two weeks than next week. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.9 billion cubic feet per day this week to 113.0 billion cubic feet per day next week with milder weather before climbing to 120.9 billion cubic feet per day in two weeks with cooler weather. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on March 5. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, down from a record 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in February. Gas traded near $18 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and near $16 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

U.S. Natural Gas Insulated as Global Markets Roiled by Conflict - Winter Storm Fern battered the U.S. gas market in late January, with 79 all-time spot price records set at NGI indexes, but so far the war in the Middle East has barely excited market bulls. Line chart titled “NGI’s Henry Hub Daily Spot Price vs Prompt JPN/KOR & TTF Futures Contract Settlement Prices” showing Henry Hub U.S. natural gas prices near $3/MMBtu from Feb. 27 to March 3, 2026, while global LNG benchmarks rise sharply, with Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) increasing from about $10.5 to nearly $16/MMBtu and Europe’s TTF climbing from roughly $11 to above $18/MMBtu, highlighting the widening price spread between U.S. natural gas and international LNG markets." At A Glance:

• U.S. LNG plants run near capacity
• Henry Hub hovers around $3/MMBtu
• Global benchmarks surge amid supply disruptions

Save Room – The Expanding Role of Natural Gas Storage in East Texas and West Louisiana | RBN Energy -New and expanded natural gas storage facilities near the Texas/Louisiana border are coming online and being planned, mostly in response to the ongoing buildout of LNG export capacity along the Gulf Coast and new gas pipelines to those terminals. In today’s RBN blog — the second in a series — we continue our look at existing and planned storage capacity between the Haynesville and Western Haynesville gas production areas and the LNG export meccas along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu ship channels, as well as storage near the Katy, TX, gas hub. As we said in Part 1, the infrastructure buildout along the border between the Lone Star and Bayou states is well underway. Planned liquefaction trains there with a combined capacity of 75 MMtpa (10 Bcf/d) have reached a final investment decision (FID), are under construction and will be starting up between now and 2031. These new LNG export facilities (blue-striped diamonds in Figure 1 below) will join three existing terminals (green diamonds) in the area — Sabine Pass LNG, Cameron LNG and Calcasieu Pass — that together have nearly 53 MMtpa (7 Bcf/d) of capacity. That means that within five years or so, terminals along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu waterways will receive as much as 17 Bcf/d of natural gas. This massive demand center is fed by pipelines delivering gas from several production areas, including the Permian, the Eagle Ford and the far-away Marcellus/Utica. But as LNG export demand ramps up, increasing volumes will come from the relatively close-by Haynesville (light-gray-shaded area in Figure 1 below) and, in all likelihood, from the emerging Western Haynesville, which is centered in East Texas’s Freestone, Leon, Limestone and Robertson counties (outlined in red). To help deliver these increasing volumes, new pipeline capacity has been — and continues to be — built between “the Haynesvilles” and the Sabine-Neches/Calcasieu region, and from the Permian to the Katy gas hub — and from there to the Texas/Louisiana border. (Solid lines in Figure 1 show some of the existing pipes and dashed lines show planned ones.)The gas needs of LNG export terminals and gas-fired power plants can vary widely — and sometimes suddenly. As we noted last time, pipelines can absorb many of these variations with linepack and other means, but balancing gas supply and demand in the region will require more gas storage facilities that can, for example, quickly receive large volumes of gas when an LNG train trips offline or quickly send out stored gas when demand for gas-fired generation spikes.In Part 1, we began our look at gas storage facilities in the region with descriptions of Caliche Storage’s Golden Triangle Storage (now in the midst of an expansion) and Spindletop Expansion Project; Trinity Gas Storage’s Bethel, TX, facility (also being expanded); and Energy Transfer’s Bethel Gas Storage (ditto) and Bammel facilities.Today, we continue that review, starting with NeuVentus, a portfolio company of Lotus Infrastructure Partners that is developing the Texas Reliability Underground Hub (TRU Hub; light-teal star in Figure 2 below). As we discussed in Wanna Be Startin’ Somethin’ last April, the project may eventually consist of as many as 12 salt caverns within the Moss Bluff salt dome in Liberty County, TX — a short drive from existing and planned LNG export terminals near the Texas/Louisiana state line.Last spring’s non-binding open season for up to 20 Bcf of firm gas storage capacity at TRU Hub’s first two caverns — each of which would have about 10 Bcf of working storage capacity —was oversubscribed. Since then, the company has been refining the final design and negotiating binding customer agreements.With the positive response to the open season, TRU Hub plans to build a pipeline header (dashed green line) that will interconnect with eight interstate and intrastate gas pipelines (dark-teal boxes). From south to north, they are Kinder Morgan’s Texas and Tejas pipelines, Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO), Enterprise Channel, NGPL, the planned Mustang Express, Transco and the planned Trident Pipeline. Further north, there are a possible header extension (dashed orange line) and possible tie-ins (orange boxes) with the planned East Texas Rose and Blackfin pipelines and with Trunkline.Next up is Black Bayou Energy Hub (blue star in Figure 3 below), a planned salt cavern storage facility in Cameron Parish, LA — very much in the midst of the region’s existing and planned LNG export terminals (purple and brown dots). The project, which was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in October 2025, will consist of four new underground salt caverns with about 8.7 Bcf of working storage capacity each, or a total of 34.7 Bcf, with up to 1.6 Bcf/d of injection capacity and up to 2 Bcf/d of withdrawal capacity. Two caverns with a total of about 17.4 Bcf of capacity are expected to come online by Q4 2028, with the other two caverns to follow by Q4 2030. FERC has already approved a pair of 27-mile, 24-inch-diameter, bidirectional pipelines (parallel black lines) that will interconnect with at least 10 pipelines (green dots and text along parallel black lines), including (from south to north): Sabine Pipeline, Port Arthur Pipeline, Kinder Morgan Louisiana Pipeline (KMLP), Florida Gas Transmission (FGT), CP Express, Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP), TETCO, Golden Pass Pipeline, the Transco main line and Gulf Run.Our understanding is that Black Bayou has binding, long-term offtake commitments for over 95% of its certificated capacity, and plans to ask FERC to approve a lateral (single black line to east/northeast) to multiple interconnects in the Lake Charles, LA, area, including Creole Trail, Cameron Interstate Pipeline (CIP) and Woodside’s Line 200. Black Bayou expects to formally greenlight construction of the first four caverns after completing an ongoing capital raise, and is also actively pursuing further expansion.As we noted in Part 1, we’re also looking at gas storage near the Katy Hub because of all the gas flowing through that area on its way to LNG export terminals along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu waterways. Among the projects under development near Katy is Gulf Coast Midstream Partners’ 23-Bcf Freeport Energy Storage Hub (FRESH; green-outlined star in main map and blue circle in inset in Figure 4 below), which secured the Texas Railroad Commission’s approval in June 2025. Plans call for the simultaneous development of two salt caverns in Fort Bend County, TX, just north of Sweeny.Finally — for today — there’s Enbridge’s 22-Bcf Moss Bluff gas storage facility in Liberty County, TX, and 21-Bcf Egan facility in Acadia Parish, LA, which straddle the existing and planned LNG terminals along the Sabine-Neches and Calcasieu waterways and are connected to Enbridge’s TETCO system and several other pipelines. Enbridge announced in November 2025 that it had taken FID on a planned 7-Bcf expansion at Moss Bluff that will come online in 2028 and a 16-Bcf expansion at Egan that will start up in two phases in 2030 and 2033, respectively.Enbridge also has 41.5 Bcf of capacity across four salt caverns at its Tres Palacios gas storage site in Matagorda County, TX. A 62-mile header pipeline connects Tres Palacios to 11 interstate and intrastate pipelines; a link to the planned Mustang Express Pipeline is expected when that pipe and its Cougar Lateral (between the Tres Palacios header and Katy) come online in 2029-30.

Strong Earthquake Hits Louisiana; State’s Second Largest Quake Ever - According to USGS, a relatively strong earthquake struck Louisiana this morning, rattling people out of their beds and homes from what would be rated the second strongest quake to ever hit the state. At 5:30 am today, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck Red River Parish in the northwest corner of Louisiana from a depth of 5.0 km. The epicenter is south of Shreveport, Louisiana, and east of Tyler, Longview, and Nacogdoches, Texas. The strongest earthquake on record in Louisiana remains a magnitude 5.3 event that struck Grand Isle on February 6, 2006. Today’s earthquake was also the strongest to strike North America over the prior 24 hours. The area involved in today’s strong earthquake has been shaking quite a bit since December, with 8 earthquakes rated over 2.4 impacting he area. USGS reports that more than 1,190 people used the “Did you feel it?” reporting tool on their website to report they felt today’s earthquake. According to USGS, earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.0 or less are rarely felt or heard by people, but once they exceed 2.0 , more and more people can feel them. While damage is possible with magnitude 3.0 events or greater, significant damage and casualties usually don’t occur until the magnitude of a seismic event rises to a 5.5 or greater rated event. Each color dot reflects oil/gas production sites, many of which are fracking related, across Louisiana and nearby offshore waters. The Coushatta earthquakes are likely manmade. Louisiana does not regularly experience natural quakes due to its geology, but like in east Texas and Oklahoma it is believed an increase in shaking over recent years is due to the disposal of waste water generated from oil and gas extraction through injection into the ground. Beginning in 2009, Oklahoma experienced a surge in seismicity according to USGS. “This surge was so large that its rate of magnitude 3 and larger earthquakes exceeded California’s from 2014 through 2017,” writes USGS in a report analyzing the increase in seismicity here. “While these earthquakes have been induced by oil and gas related process, few of these earthquakes were induced by fracking. The largest earthquake known to be induced by hydraulic fracturing in Oklahoma was a M3.6 earthquakes in 2019. The largest known fracking induced earthquake in the United States was a M4.0 earthquake that occurred in Texas in 2018. The majority of earthquakes in Oklahoma are caused by the industrial practice known as “wastewater disposal”. Wastewater disposal is a separate process in which fluid waste from oil and gas production is injected deep underground far below ground water or drinking water aquifers. In Oklahoma over 90% of the wastewater that is injected is a byproduct of oil extraction process and not waste frack fluid.” According to USGS, this is not a seismically active part of the country. According to the Fractracker Alliance, though, the area of today’s activity is in an area rich of fracking and oil and gas production. Due to the strength of today’s earthquake, USGS says there could be more. They’ve released an aftershock forecast, computing the odds of at least one aftershock within the next week. Right now USGS forecasts a less than 1% chance of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake, a 1% chance of a magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake, an 11% chance of a magnitude 4.0 or greater earthquake, and a 41% chance of a magnitude 3.0 or greater earthquake. USGS also says there’s a 65% chance that a magnitude 3.0 or greater earthquake will strike here within the next year.

Oil spill near Port Fourchon releases thousands of gallons into the Gulf -- An offshore oil leak near Port Fourchon spilled thousands of gallons of crude oil into the Gulf last Friday. WWL Louisiana first learned of the incident from a viewer that claimed an oil spill near Port Fourchon was the reason the Audubon Aquarium Rescue postponed a turtle release event last Friday. A satellite photo from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration taken on that day depicted a "sheen" in the general area. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) said in a news release that the cause of the leak was an offshore mechanical failure. Approximately 12,600 gallons of crude oil were released into the Gulf. "We were able to isolate that whole system and stop the leak within minutes." said Wade Tornyos, director of planning for LOOP, LLC. "We have well over 250 people responding to it right now." According to a U.S. Coast Guard report to mariners published Wednesday, there has been a shoreline impact to barrier islands around the Houma Navigation Canal, mariners have been advised to travel slowly and avoid oil spots. LOOP said on Wednesday that a "substantial portion" of the oil had been recovered from the water and isolated barrier islands after the oil port deployed 32 response vessels. The oil port will continue to conduct offshore cleanup and monitor barrier islands for wildlife and shoreline impacts. LOOP said it is recovering the oil for its clients to potentially reuse the oil.

ULSD Futures Soar to 3-Year Highs as Iran War Drags -- Diesel prices soared to more than three-year highs Thursday morning on the back of a rally in European gasoil futures as more refiners in Asia were forced to scale back operations and cancel product exports as the Iran war hit crude deliveries from the Middle East. NYMEX ULSD futures' front month, April, peaked at $3.5755 gallon, the highest since the $3.5800 level it touched in January 2023. ICE gasoil for March soared to $1,130.25 tonne, the highest since October 2022. The rally in both came as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill on the sixth day of a widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, cutting off some 5 million bpd of refined product supply. The Middle East has become a vital supplier of diesel to Europe after the European Union banned refined product imports from Russia in February 2023, a year after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Several refiners in Asia who are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil, meanwhile, have started to reduce crude throughput and cancel exports amid a lack of crude deliveries from the Persian Gulf, where some 14 million bpd of crude oil supply remained stranded. The 300,000-bpd capacity Mangalore refinery in India on Wednesday told clients it may not be able to fulfill export obligations, and the Chinese government advised major refineries to suspend product exports. Refiners in Indonesia and Japan have also started to cut runs, and refiners in Thailand were told to halt fuel exports. An escalating war added to supply risks. Iranian drones and missiles struck several U.S.-allied countries in the region over the week, dragging them into the conflict. On Wednesday, U.S. and Israeli officials said Kurdish militias from northern Iraq have started a ground offensive, although that claim was denied by both the semi-autonomous Kurdish government and Iranian state media. Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Thursday claimed to have struck a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. At 8:40 a.m. EST, NYMEX WTI crude futures for April delivery were up $2.29 to trade near $76.95 bbl, and ICE Brent crude for May delivery advanced $1.89 to $83.29 bbl. Downstream, aside from ULSD, RBOB futures for April delivery soared as well, by $0.0769 to $2.5918 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.245 points to 98.975 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Every Day I’m Shuffling – Changes at Houston, Corpus Christi Show How U.S. Crude Exports are Evolving | RBN Energy -Houston and Corpus Christi dominate U.S. crude oil exports, but the balance between the two hot spots is shifting, with Houston growing and closing in on Corpus Christi as export flows and terminal connectivity change. In Houston, Enterprise Products Partners could be set to extend its regional lead, and in Corpus Christi, Gibson Energy’s South Texas Gateway is fighting for the top spot after adding a connection to the Cactus II pipeline — critical for bringing more crude to the terminal. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the shifts in crude flows and terminal activity in Houston, Corpus Christi and key overseas markets and how they have changed U.S. crude oil exports. Gulf Coast crude oil exports can swing significantly from week to week, but the underlying trend is clear: Corpus Christi (dark-blue layer in Figure 1 below) has consistently loaded the largest volumes each week in recent years. Houston (aqua layer) has held steady in second place for some time but has been narrowing the gap. Houston’s crude exports have climbed steadily, increasing from 0.7 MMb/d in 2022 to 1.2 MMb/d in 2025, a gain of 71%, while Corpus Christi volumes rose from 1.9 MMb/d to 2.25 MMb/d over the same period, up 18%. The gap between the two ports has continued to narrow in early 2026, with Houston averaging 1.3 MMb/d and Corpus Christi at 2.2 MMb/d the past several weeks. Total U.S. crude exports, including Beaumont (orange layer) and Louisiana (pink layer) are averaging 3.8 MMb/d so far in 2026, according to our Crude Voyager Report. To see how and why things have changed over the past few years and what might be ahead, let’s look at both markets, starting with Houston. A number of factors have impacted crude oil shipments from Houston, where the Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) is the export leader. (Note that in the Houston area, Enterprise also operates the Seaway Texas City Terminal and the Seaway Freeport Terminal.) EHT exports rose from 375 Mb/d in 2022 to 597 Mb/d in 2025, an increase of 59%. EHT’s growth has been driven largely by crude pushing out of the Permian Basin, as we’ve regularly discussed in our Crude Oil Permian Report. For the past couple of years, Enterprise has had two major pipelines moving crude from the Permian to Houston — Midland to ECHO 1 (M2E-1; purple line in Figure 2 below) and Midland to ECHO 3 (M2E-3; dark orange line), which represents the company’s 29% undivided interest in the Wink to Webster Pipeline (W2W; orange line). W2W starts in Wink but Enterprise’s ownership begins at Midland. Together, these give Enterprise 1.07 MMb/d of crude takeaway capacity from the Permian to Houston. Now, things are slated to kick up another notch. A third pipeline, Midland to ECHO 2 (M2E-2, blue line in Figure 2), had been moving NGLs since December 2023 under the name Seminole Pipeline but has been officially returned to crude oil service (see The Boys Are Back in Town). In Enterprise’s quarterly earnings release on February 3, Co-CEO Jim Teague said the recent commissioning of the Bahia NGL Pipeline brings “the added benefit of our Seminole Pipeline’s conversion back to crude oil transportation service, lowering the operating costs on our Permian crude oil pipeline system through the return of cost-effective transportation capacity.” Other terminals contributing to Houston’s export growth since early 2024 have been (1) the Seabrook Logistics export terminal (light-blue bar segments in Figure 3), a joint venture (JV) of LBC Tank Terminals and Magellan Midstream Partners (now part of ONEOK); and (2) Texas International (dark-green bar segments), which started exporting crude in January 2024. (We must note there are changes at Texas International, namely that Platts recently stripped the terminal of its Brent eligibility. WTI Midland can still be loaded, but barrels shipped from the terminal will no longer factor into Dated Brent price formation, which could impact its export volumes.)Changes are also afoot a little farther down the Texas coast, where the Port of Corpus Christi has wrapped up its Channel Improvement Project. The work, aimed at supporting the growing presence of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), deepened the channel from 47 to 54 feet and widened it from 400 to 530 feet in most places. The first three phases — from the Gulf to the Chemical Turning Basin — expanded vessel access, enabling Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC), Gibson Energy’s South Texas Gateway (STG), and the Sunoco and Valero terminals to handle larger cargoes, including the loading of up to 1.6 MMbbl onto VLCCs at EIEC and STG. The final leg, Phase 4, was completed in June 2025. Led by Callan Marine, it extended those benefits to the EPIC Marine, Pin Oak, Eagle Ford and Buckeye terminals along the Inner Harbor. In addition, the new Harbor Bridge, with 205 feet of vertical clearance (up from 138 feet), opened the Inner Harbor to deeper-draft vessels, solidifying Corpus Christi’s position at the center of Gulf Coast crude exports. [..] In addition to factors at the ports, exports have been influenced by several international developments. Canadian crude exports have been reshuffled dramatically in recent years. As shown in Figure 5 below, Gulf Coast re-exports of Canadian heavy crude climbed sharply starting in 2022, peaking near 350 Mb/d in late 2023. But everything changed in October 2024 thanks to two events — the ramp-up of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) in Western Canada and China's related decision to stop buying Canadian heavy crude from the Gulf Coast. (TMX delivers crude oil from Canada’s oil sands in Alberta to an export terminal in British Columbia. The expansion took the Trans Mountain system’s capacity from 300 Mb/d to 890 Mb/d. China is the #1 destination for barrels moved on the expanded TMX.) TMX-driven re-exports did affect the Gulf Coast balance, but the impact was concentrated around Beaumont/Nederland.The differences in the Houston and Corpus Christi markets are also a factor. Corpus Christi is primarily an export market with limited local refining, while Houston is a large, integrated refining and export hub with significant storage and broad access to international markets. That makes Houston a good place to send your crude if you’re a shipper and are unsure about the economics of shipping to Asia. The tug-of-war between Houston and Corpus Christi is far from over. Corpus Christi retains the edge, anchored by VLCC-capable docks and deep Permian connectivity, but Houston is steadily gaining ground as pipeline expansions, terminal additions and ship-channel improvements enhance its flexibility. The return of M2E-2 to crude service will further boost Enterprise’s position, while STG’s Cactus II link strengthens its challenge to EIEC. Layer in shifting trade flows, TMX-driven adjustments and Europe’s pull on Aframaxes, and the Gulf Coast export map keeps evolving. In short, infrastructure optionality — not just dock capacity — will determine who wins the next round.

Where She Goes – For Gulf Coast Refined Products, It’s Down to Mexico by Truck, Rail, Ship and Pipe | RBN Energy - U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to Mexico have been mostly rising the past 15 years as Mexican demand for refined products stabilized, the utilization of south-of-the-border refineries sagged, Covid hit and, most recently, Pemex — the state-owned oil and gas company — started bringing its new Dos Bocas refinery online. Over that same decade and a half, the Mexican government’s policy on the import-related roles of Pemex and private companies has zigged and zagged, complicating and ultimately slowing efforts to develop new midstream infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review Mexico’s refined product demand, production and imports from the U.S. — and discuss what likely lies ahead.Mexico is obviously a key trading partner in general, and has been the #1 source of total U.S. imports since 2023 (when it overtook China for that top spot) and in 2025 it also became the #1 recipient of total U.S. exports, ending (at least for now) Canada’s third-of-a-century run at the top of that heap. It will come as no surprise to our readers that energy — or more specifically, crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — is a major factor in all that U.S.-Mexico trade. Mexico still is shipping significant volumes of heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries and the U.S. every day is moving billions of cubic feet of natural gas and hundreds of thousands of barrels of refined products south of the border — Mexico is by far the #1 destination for those products.We recently examined U.S.-to-Mexico natural gas exports (and the role of non-state pipeline companies) in our three-part blog series, Private Dancers. Today, we shift our attention to refined products. We’ll begin with a big-picture look at Mexico’s demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel; the highly variable output of Pemex’s refineries over the years; and the pace of Mexico’s refined product imports from the U.S. After that, we’ll discuss how gasoline, diesel and jet fuel make their way from Gulf Coast refineries to the Mexican market.Combined demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel in Mexico rose by almost half in the first decade of the 21st century — from about 900 Mb/d in 2000 to 1.3 MMb/d in 2010 — due to a combination of population and economic gains. Demand growth has moderated since then, averaging 1.3 MMb/d in 2015 and just under 1.4 MMb/d in 2024 and 2025. (There was a sizable dip in 2020 — to just 1.1 MMb/d — due to Covid.) Over the same 2015-25 period, Mexican demand for gasoline (blue layer in Figure 1 below) increased from 807 Mb/d to 835 Mb/d, while diesel demand (green layer) grew from 421 Mb/d to 427 Mb/d and jet fuel demand (yellow layer) rose by one-third, from 74 Mb/d to 101 Mb/d.You might think that Pemex’s six legacy refineries (blue refinery icons to left in Figure 2 below), with a combined capacity of 1.6 MMb/d, would be able to meet a substantial portion of Mexico’s refined-product needs, but ... no. The fact is, while those refineries through the 2000s operated at relatively high utilization rates — approaching 80% most years — their performance declined precipitously in the 2010s due to a lack of investment, inadequate maintenance, and less-than-stellar management. By 2019, the refineries had a utilization rate of less than 40%. Yikes!Adding to the misery, the refined product (gasoline + jet fuel + diesel) yield of Pemex’s refineries has been hovering around 55%, compared to a yield of near 90% at their U.S. counterparts. Andrés Manuel López Obrador — aka AMLO — who served as Mexico’s president from December 2018 to October 2024, made increasing refinery utilization and refined product yields a high priority, and also initiated the plan to have Pemex build a seventh refinery: the 340-Mb/d Dos Bocas facility (blue refinery icon to far right in Figure 2 below) in Mexico’s Tabasco state, which (after significant delays and cost overruns in the billions) started coming online in mid-2024. (More on Dos Bocas later.) The sharp decline in the Pemex refineries’ utilization through the 2010s and their low refined-product yields left Mexico with little choice but to ramp up its imports from the U.S. (For simplicity’s sake, we’ll focus on gasoline and diesel, which together account for the vast majority of the imported volumes.) We should note that Mexico already had been importing at least some gasoline and diesel — from 2000 through 2009 it received an average of 139 Mb/d: 109 Mb/d of gasoline (teal bar segments in Figure 3 below) and 30 Mb/d of diesel (orange bar segments). Those volumes took off in the 2010s and hit a peak of 799 Mb/d (511 Mb/d of gasoline and 288 Mb/d of diesel) in 2018. From 2019 through 2024, U.S. gasoline-and-diesel exports to Mexico plateaued, averaging 741 Mb/d (463 Mb/d of gasoline and 278 Mb/d of diesel) over that period. While the ramp-up of the Dos Bocas refinery reduced those volumes materially in the first 11 months of 2025 to an average of 666 Mb/d (stacked bar to far right) — 447 Mb/d of gasoline and 219 Mb/d of diesel — they remain well short of the self-sufficiency levels AMLO and his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum, have been promoting as major objectives. The plateauing of U.S. gasoline and diesel exports to Mexico is attributable to at least a couple of factors, one being Pemex’s ongoing efforts to improve utilization rates and refined product yields at its six legacy refineries and the other being the startup of the Dos Bocas refinery. RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics practice (RFA) has estimated that the six refineries achieved a 2025 utilization rate north of 50% — not great by any means, but a significant improvement from a few years ago. Also, a new coker unit at Pemex’s 315-Mb/d Tula refinery in Hidalgo state is reportedly nearing completion and would help to increase that facility’s refined-product yield. We’ll caution, however, that the coker project has missed multiple previously targeted startup dates and the operating performance of Pemex’s three existing delayed cokers has been mediocre at best, so expectations of significant improvements at Tula should be tempered. As for Dos Bocas, while RFA expects it may take at least another year for the refinery to reach full and consistent operation, it is now at least producing meaningful volumes of gasoline and diesel and thereby trimming how much of those fuels Mexico needs to import from the U.S. Of course, as with Mexico’s legacy refineries, the ability to maintain consistent operations at Dos Bocas remains very uncertain and RFA is forecasting sub-industry-standard utilizations and yields at the plant as a result. That brings us to the matter of how gasoline, diesel and jet fuel produced at Pemex’s refineries or imported from the U.S. reaches its end users. As shown in Figure 2, most of Pemex’s production is transported by the company’s two pipeline systems (orange lines) to the company’s extensive set of storage-and-distribution terminals (gray tank icons). The larger southern system is centered around Mexico City and connects to the Salamanca, Tula, Minatitlan and Salina Cruz refineries. (Salina Cruz also serves much of western Mexico via marine movements.) The smaller northern system mostly serves northeastern Mexico, including the Monterrey industrial center in Nuevo Leon state, and connects to the Cadereyta and Madero refineries. From the terminals, virtually all of the refined products are delivered to service stations and other customers by tanker truck. The process for importing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into Mexico from the U.S. is more complicated. The largest share of cross-border deliveries is by tanker truck, with the next-largest tranche moving by rail, most of it via unit trains on the Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) rail network. That network, formed by the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, includes more than 3,000 miles of track in Mexico. Smaller railed volumes are transferred at the U.S.-Mexico border from Union Pacific and other U.S. railroads to Ferromex, which operates the largest railroad network in Mexico and which is co-owned by Grupo México (74%) and Union Pacific (26%). Additional volumes of U.S.-sourced refined products are piped to Mexico or shipped there by tanker. In an upcoming blog, we’ll examine these various approaches to transporting gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast to Mexico in more detail. We’ll also discuss the prospects for Pemex providing a larger share of Mexico’s refined-product needs as well as the long-term outlook for U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to its southern neighbor.

ONEOK Scale Helps Even Out Ups and Downs -Despite some headwinds in 2025, ONEOK was able to maintain its streak of 12 consecutive years of adjusted EBITDA growth. As shown in the slide below, lower crude prices (which resulted in reduced Bakken gas throughput) and a narrow RBOB to butane spread impacted earnings, as did delayed startups of connected third-party gas processing plants in the Permian. However, the company was able to make up for those shortcomings in other parts of the business. In particular, ONEOK was able to capitalize on the strong Waha to Katy natural gas price spread and Permian volume growth. Looking forward, there are a couple of major projects to note:

1. The 150 MMcf/d Shadowfax gas processing plant, which was relocated to the Midland from North Texas will ramp up at the end of 1Q 2026. (For all you non-nerds out there, Shadowfax was the legendary Lord of Horses from Lord of the Rings that befriends Gandalf (pictured below). According to lore Shadowfax is a direct descendant of the horse that the Valar, Orome, rode across middle Earth.)
2. Expansion of 110 MMcf/d of Delaware processing capacity across two unspecified existing processing plants, due online in 3Q 2026.
3. The company's 300 MMcf/d Bighorn plant will come online in 2027.
4. Finally, phase 1 of the Medford NGL fractionator rebuild is expected to ramp up in 4Q 2026 and will have capacity for 100 Mb/d. Phase 2 will add an additional 110 Mb/d of capacity in 1Q 2027.

BLM to help oil industry find new uses for wastewater - The Bureau of Land Management is instructing employees in the field to help companies find uses for oil field wastewater, such as for agriculture, beyond injecting it underground permanently. The new BLM policy is the latest step in a debate about what to do with the billions of gallons of wastewater produced every year. Decades of deep injection have resulted in earthquakes, geyser-like well blowouts and ground swelling. Some water managers in Texas worry that if the practice continues at the current rate, groundwater resources could get contaminated.The move comes as the Trump administration’s EPA is also working on a regulation to make it easier for companies to treat and reuse the water.The wastewater, often referred to as “produced water,” “salt water” or “brine,” comes up with oil and gas at well sites. The byproduct is many times saltier than seawater, often has chemicals added during drilling and fracking and can be radioactive.

South Bow Seeks Shipper Commitments to Restart Keystone XL Project South Bow has launched an open season seeking long-term shipper commitments as it evaluates reviving part of the Keystone XL pipeline, a move that could significantly boost Canadian crude exports to the United States. (Reuters) — Canadian pipeline operator South Bow said on March 5 it has launched a formal open season seeking binding long-term shipping commitments for a revival of part of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, a move that could boost Canada's crude exports to the United States by more than 12%. The open season, which runs until March 30, would solicit transportation commitments from Hardisty, Alberta, to U.S. delivery points. South Bow will then conduct a 60-day review of the results before deciding on next steps. The project would require an approval from the Trump administration. Additional pipeline links to U.S. refining hubs would need to be constructed if approval is granted. South Bow took over the Keystone XL pipeline following its spin-off from TC Energy. The pipeline was canceled in 2021 by then-President Joe Biden. The Canadian portion of the line is already built and holds all necessary Canadian regulatory permits. Shares of South Bow fell nearly 1% in after-hours trading. Separately, the company reported a decline in fourth-quarter adjusted core profit, weighed by lower throughput volumes on its operating Keystone Pipeline and the U.S. Gulf Coast segment of the Keystone Pipeline System. The company's throughput from the Keystone Pipeline came in at 594,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the quarter ended December 31, compared with 621,000 bpd a year earlier. Throughput on the U.S. Gulf Coast segment was 680,000 bpd, compared with 784,000 bpd a year earlier.

How Soon Is Now – Short-Term Priorities Emerge as Global Demand for Natural Gas Heats Up | RBN Energy --The world is hungry for more natural gas. The newly reintroduced Current Policies Scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global demand rising from today’s 400 Bcf/d to about 475 Bcf/d by 2050, roughly in line with other notable forecasts from the likes of BP and ExxonMobil. OPEC is even more bullish, predicting demand will reach 540 Bcf/d by midcentury. And that doesn't even account the short-term pressures related to the military action against Iran. Any way you slice it, that’s a lot of natural gas. So, where will it come from and what are the biggest issues facing the market? Those are among the major questions addressed at RBN’s recent GasCon 2026 conference and the focus of today’s RBN blog. Warning: Today’s blog includes some blatant plugs for a newly available replay of our event in Houston. As we did at the conference, let’s start with a little background about where things stand today. Global natural gas production in 2024 was a little more than 400 Bcf/d, with the U.S. (green layer in left graph in Figure 1 below) accounting for about 110 Bcf/d, or more than one-quarter of total supplies. Canada’s 20 Bcf/d (red layer) put total North American production at about 130 Bcf/d. After the U.S., Russia (pink layer) is the next-biggest producer, with the rest supplied by Australia (yellow layer), Qatar (light-orange layer), and several other smaller producers within Other OCED (light-purple layer), Other OPEC (dark-orange layer) and others (blue layer). But these numbers don’t tell the whole story because some countries — notably the U.S., Russia, Qatar and Australia — produce substantially more gas than they consume. In 2024, U.S. demand for natural gas was 91 Bcf/d (orange bar section at left side of right graph), leaving 13 Bcf/d available for export (blue bar section), primarily as LNG. (The global market got a lot tighter on March 2 when Qatar halted LNG production after Iran struck two of its facilities in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.) Starting with Cheniere’s Sabine Pass, 10 North American liquefaction and export terminals have come online since 2016 that today consume about 19 Bcf/d of feedgas (blue layer in Figure 2 below), mostly centered on the U.S. Gulf Coast, with a lot more on the way. In addition to the expansions of existing terminals, eight more have taken a final investment decision (FID) and are under construction. Post-FID projects at new and existing terminals could take an additional 14 Bcf/d (orange layer) just five short years from now, rising to 15.7 Bcf/d not long after that. And there are a host of other developers that have thrown their hat in the ring and are working to secure the permits and offtake agreements necessary to push their projects across the finish line (red layer), which could bump feedgas demand past 40 Bcf/d or even 45 Bcf/d somewhere down the line. U.S. LNG has plenty of potential for future growth, but it’s no sure thing. Policy choices can have a major impact on project development and regulatory certainty is a key factor in the LNG industry’s prospects, Tala Goudarzi, a former Department of Energy (DOE) official, said during a fireside chat with RBN President and CEO David Braziel. Goudarzi, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Office of Fossil Energy at the DOE, led initiatives that expanded U.S. LNG exports, including lifting the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG export approvals, which she said slowed the industry’s development. In the first of two panel discussions that highlighted the second half of the conference, executives from two natural gas producers and an analytics expert said they were hopeful that natural gas will remain available to meet growing demand, but logistical and infrastructure challenges will shape how smoothly they can get gas from areas like the prolific Permian Basin to where it’s needed, including LNG terminals in operation (solid orange diamond near Corpus Christi in Figure 3 below) or under development (striped diamonds along coast) and key trading hubs like Agua Dulce and Katy. All told, about 16 Bcf/d of pipeline capacity from the Permian to and along the coast is expected to be added by 2029. (Note: Solid lines in Figure 3 show pipelines that are operational. Dashed lines show pipelines in development.) “The question this panel is going to get at is: Will there be enough natural gas? And that depends on the price signals, the infrastructure buildout, and how quickly operators can respond,” said Anders Hyde, Director of Fundamental and Quantitative Analytics at Expand Energy, the nation’s largest natural gas producer. Also on the panel were James Pearson, Senior Consultant for Market Analysis at ConocoPhillips, and Brandon Myers, Head of Research at Novi Labs. Hyde and Pearson said they’re using better strategies and technology to slash costs for new wells, but there's no silver bullet — “I can’t point to one specific thing. … It’s a series of continuous improvements," Hyde said. Myers cautioned against putting too much stake in “dark horse gas plays” at this point, because many of them can be quite expensive and challenging to capture gas efficiently and effectively. Sital Mody, President of Natural Gas Pipelines at Kinder Morgan, said midstream developments will need to focus on three things in the coming years: unlocking supply, building new infrastructure (and debottlenecking problem areas), and increasing ways to reach the end-user market. If those challenges can be met, he said, big things are ahead. “When I take a step back and reflect on the natural gas industry, the one thing that comes to mind for me is all gas, no brakes,” he said. Danielle Bertoldi, a technical adviser at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), emphasized that better gas-electric coordination has become a much-bigger priority, a lesson learned the hard way during 2021’s Winter Storm Uri. “What used to be very siloed sectors, the electric sector and the gas sector … we’re at the point now where you can’t really differentiate between the two industries, you have to consider them together if you want to maintain reliability for the U.S. grid,” she said.Gas storage will become increasingly important for ensuring reliability and meeting supply-and-demand challenges, especially as U.S. LNG exports are poised to increase sharply in the next few years, Caliche Storage CEO Dave Marchese said. The U.S. saw a significant overbuild of natural gas storage in the early 2000s, but what for many years had been excess capacity is now being used and more capacity is needed, Marchese said. He said there are two main holdups to getting more facilities built — storage is more expensive to develop than it was a few years ago, and developers are looking for the long-term contracts (10 or 15 years) necessary to secure financing, a sharp departure from the cheaper and much shorter contracts required in previous years.

Alaska offshore oil safety regulator on leave after warning of staffing shortfall - A longtime Interior Department official is on leave after he warned that the agency that oversees oil rigs in the waters off Alaska was dangerously understaffed, according to two people familiar with the situation.Justin Miller, who has headed the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s Alaska office since 2022, went on leave just days after POLITICO reported he had publicly warned agency counterparts that his office lacked the staffing to oversee existing oil operations in Alaska — let alone a massive expansion being pushed by the Trump administration. It was not clear whether Miller had been placed on leave or had chosen to temporarily step away from his role, according to the two people, one current and one former Interior employee who were granted anonymity to describe internal agency dynamics.Other Interior officials were informed that Miller would be on an “extended leave” but were given no other details, according to the current employee.

Q4 2025 Earnings Calls: Tourmaline Oil - Montney Outperformance Plus LNG & Data Centers To Tighten Gas Markets | RBN Energy -Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s (TRMLF) 2025 fourth quarter earnings call took place on March 5, 2026, and provided several insights into operational trends and the supply and demand balance in the Western Canadian gas market. While regional prices remain weak, management focused on well performance, infrastructure expansion in northeast British Columbia, and how their portfolio is positioned to respond to tightening fundamentals across North America and global LNG markets. Production performance remains strong across the company's core Montney assets. Tourmaline reported record production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and again in January 2026, when output averaged roughly 685,000 boe per day before the Peace River High asset sale (see image below). Drilling programs continue to move toward longer laterals and updated completion designs. Average completed lateral length in northeast BC increased to about 8,400 feet, around 1,100 feet longer than in 2024. Management noted that they can drill wells but delay completions, which represent about 60% of total well cost, allowing them to manage when new production enters the market. They estimate breakeven gas prices around C$2.00/Mcf in the Alberta Deep Basin, and around C$1.40/Mcf in the BC Montney. Initial supply of LNG Canada comes from producers directly connected to the facility. As demand increases, additional gas is pulled from the Enbridge system through the Sunset West delivery point, and finally from the NGTL system through the Willow meter. Because the NGTL system feeds volumes last, the broader AECO market tends to see the impact later in the ramp up cycle. Tourmaline noted that flows at the Willow meter have strengthened over the past several weeks, suggesting LNG Canada is beginning to pull incremental supply from NGTL and tighten basin balances. Tourmaline continues to expand its exposure to global gas markets through LNG exports. The company currently has access to roughly 200 MMcf/d of LNG capacity, which is expected to grow to around 330 MMcf/d over the next several years. Tourmaline continues expanding its infrastructure footprint in northeast British Columbia. Two major processing projects remain on schedule: the Aitken gas plant, expected in Q4 2026, and the Groundbirch Manirias facility, expected in Q4 2027. The company has also completed a liquids hub near the Aitken complex, along with associated pipelines to integrate liquids handling across the region. Tourmaline plans to terminate discretionary deep cut processing contracts in the Alberta Deep Basin as they expire. Management indicated that ethane recovery economics remain persistently weak because abundant ethane content in Alberta gas means any price improvement quickly attracts additional recovery, keeping the market soft. Tourmaline also expanded its storage position through a long term agreement at AltaGas' Dimsdale facility in Alberta, described by management as a high deliverability reservoir. The agreement provides 6 Bcf of storage starting in April 2026, increasing to 10 Bcf by mid 2027. This summer the company expects to be able to inject approximately 67 MMcf/d into the facility, with that rate roughly tripling by the summer of 2027, making storage an increasingly meaningful tool for managing price exposure. Management quantified the potential demand from gas fired power generation and data center development, estimating that behind-the-fence co-location projects and on-grid data center developments could represent a minimum of 1.5 Bcf/d of incremental in-basin gas consumption by 2030. This would arrive ahead of any LNG Canada Phase 2 contribution. Overall, management's comments suggest that while pricing remains weak today, the combination of declining local supply growth, advancing LNG export ramp, normalizing West Coast demand, growing storage optionality, and emerging data center load point toward meaningfully tighter fundamentals over the medium term across Western Canada and connected export markets.

Cedar LNG Build Moves Ahead While Gas Supply Questions Loom Over Future Expansion --Construction progress of the Cedar LNG project and relaxing constraints in Western Canada is lifting outlooks for oilsands producers, according to Pembina Pipeline Corp. management, but future expansions still hinge on whether the basin can provide more natural gas supply. Map of Western Canada natural gas pipelines and LNG export facilities showing the Montney and Duvernay plays, major pipelines to the British Columbia coast, and LNG Canada, Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG, and other proposed or operating export terminals. At A Glance:
Cedar LNG construction passes 35% milestone
WCSB gas supply key to expansion
LNG Canada ramp-up boosts basin sentiment

Sempra Axes Vista Pacifico LNG Plan, Cutting Mexico’s Proposed Export Capacity - Mexico’s potential LNG export buildout has shrunk by about 0.5 Bcf/d after Sempra ended development plans for its long-proposed Vista Pacifico project.Map of Sempra Infrastructure assets across North America showing LNG terminals, natural gas pipelines, clean power projects, and energy infrastructure in the United States and Mexico, including Cameron LNG, Port Arthur LNG, and Energia Costa Azul LNG.At A Glance:
Sempra, CFE terminate development agreement
Mexico loses 0.5 Bcf/d export capacity
Exit reduces Permian demand outlook

SEFE’s Landmark Argentine LNG Deal Bolsters Europe Energy Security -Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE) signed a deal to buy up to 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG for eight years from Southern Energy SA in Argentina. The deal is Argentina’s first long-term LNG supply contract.Chart showing Europe LNG imports by region of origin from 2020–2025, highlighting the United States as the dominant supplier with imports rising sharply after 2022 to roughly 270 million tons, while smaller volumes come from the Russian Federation, Qatar, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, EU & EEA, Latin America & Caribbean, the Middle East, Asia and other regions, according to NGI analysis of Kpler data. At A Glance:
Germany secures long-term Argentina LNG supply
Vaca Muerta shale drives production surge
Floating LNG vessels target 2027 startup

Northeast Asia Cold Boosts LNG Demand Amid Europe’s Mild March Outlook - The outlook for a brief cold spell in Northeast Asia could help continue to pull U.S. LNG cargoes to the Pacific as springlike weather settles over Europe.Charts showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo as of March 4, 2026, comparing daily mean temperatures with normal levels to track weather trends impacting global natural gas demand.At A Glance:
European HDDs fall sharply below normal
LNG flows favor Pacific markets
Weather divergence reshapes LNG flows

20% of World LNG Supplies Threatened by Strait of Hormuz Closing -- Marcellus Drilling News - Oil prices are surging following a functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered by U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran over the weekend. While not a formal blockade, the halt in traffic—driven by insurance withdrawals and safety risks—threatens 15% of global oil and 20% of LNG supply. Analysts from Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan, and Rystad Energy warn that Brent crude could jump by $20 per barrel immediately, potentially exceeding $100 (or even $200) per barrel if disruptions persist. Major shipping firms like Maersk and MSC have suspended transits and rerouted vessels as the industry reassesses geopolitical risks.

LNG Markets Face Extreme Volatility as Middle East War Intensifies, Supply Disruptions Indefinite --An intensifying war in the Middle East wreaked havoc in energy markets Tuesday, with natural gas bearing the worst of it, but analysts predicted supply disruptions could be short-lived despite American and Israeli claims that their attacks against Iran could last weeks or longer. Chart of European Union gas storage as of 01-Mar-2026, showing inventories at 343 TWh, 30.1% full, below prior year and five-year average, with historical storage trends from 2021-2026. At A Glance:
Freight rates surge
Asia’s call for cargoes strengthens
Supply disruptions could be short

Qatar Shuts World’s Largest LNG Export Plant, Europe Gas Soars 85% -- Marcellus Drilling News - Although the Iran war has caused shipping, including oil shipping, to temporarily stop through the Strait of Hormuz, the bigger story is how the war currently is, and will continue to, affect the price of natural gas around the globe. Yesterday, QatarEnergy announced it is suspending production at the world’s largest LNG export facility following attacks by Iran. Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG capacity, so its decision removes 20% of the market’s LNG supply for now. It represents the most significant market shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures (the European benchmark, like our own Henry Hub) for April 2026 have surged 85% since Friday, trading near €59.62 following a 33.97% jump earlier today.

Qatar Braces for Lengthy Shutdown at Ras Laffan, Begins Leasing Idle LNG Tankers -- QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi told the Financial Times the country would not be able to restart LNG production at its shuttered Ras Laffan Industrial complex until the conflict raging in the Middle East ends completely. At that point, he said it could take weeks to resume production and begin normal deliveries again. He also said the company is examining damage to its LNG facilities. If the war stretches on, Al-Kaabi said all of the Persian Gulf’s energy exports could be halted, pushing oil as high as $150/bbl, which could “bring down economies of the world,” according to the report.

‘Nightmare Scenario’ in Middle East as Qatari LNG Output Remains Offline with No End in Sight --QatarEnergy’s decision this week to suspend LNG production after its infrastructure was attacked by Iran dealt a major blow to the global natural gas market, with practically no options to replace that supply and a slow process ahead for restarting output when the time comes. At A Glance:
Outage eliminates 3-4 daily cargoes
Ras Laffan restart could take a week
U.S. spot cargoes could fill small void

U.S. LNG Arb to Asia Strengthens Amid War as Competition With Europe Heats Up --Asian LNG prices were jolted higher Monday as the market weighed the impact of limited natural gas exports from Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the coming weeks amid war in the Middle East. At A Glance:

• Asian spot, futures prices jump
• TTF saw strongest gains Monday
• TTF-JKM spread widens

Spot LNG Shipping Rates Surge, U.S. Arb Grows on Persian Gulf Security Fears -Daily spot rates for shipping LNG to the Atlantic and Pacific shot up by almost half Monday with higher rates seen ahead in the coming days as war in the Middle East shuffles global vessel traffic. Map of Arabian Peninsula maritime chokepoints highlighting Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline, key routes for Middle East oil and LNG exports.At A Glance:
Atlantic LNG rates jump 43%
Qatar LNG output pause roils markets
Vessel attacks disrupt Gulf shipping

Natural gas prices soar as Middle East war raises global supply fears -A prolonged surge in natural gas prices triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East risks denting European growth and hitting some Asian economies hard, analysts have warned.Global gas prices have soared this week amid fears of a lengthy disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route running between Oman and Iran that handles about one-fifth of global LNG trade — as the Iran conflict escalates. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures, Europe's benchmark gas contract, rose 35% on Tuesday to more than 60 euros ($69.64) per megawatt-hour. On the week, prices are around 76% higher.The Northeast Asia LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), which captures deliveries to Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan, reached a one-year high, and was last seen around 43 euros ($49.83) per MWh. U.K. natural gas was also sharply higher.Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG producers, halted production on Monday following Iranian drone strikes at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. Goldman Sachs estimated the pause will reduce near-term global LNG supply by about 19%. A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard official later said the country had closed the Strait of Hormuz to all ships, and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the channel would be attacked. The U.S., however, said the route remained open, according to a Fox News report. Europe and much of Asia are more heavily exposed to potential gas price shocks than the U.S., which benefits from both domestic shale and LNG production.Around 25% of Europe's total gas supply is LNG, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel. With roughly 20% of global LNG production sitting behind the Strait, a prolonged disruption could trigger a supply squeeze comparable to the 2022 shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he said in a note."We are much more concerned about European gas prices than we are about oil prices," Wheaton said.

Russia weighs redirecting LNG exports from Europe to Asia-Pacific -Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that he had discussed with domestic energy companies the ‌possibility of redirecting Russian supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Europe to other markets, Interfax news agency and Izvestia newspaper reported.Earlier this week Russian President Vladimir Putin said that ⁠Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, pre-empting EU plans to stop Russian LNG imports by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 30, 2027Novak said that Russian companies were considering opportunities to divert shipments ‌to ⁠Asia-Pacific markets. Negotiations are already under way, he said, and in the near future supplies will be redirected from the European market to what he described as friendly countries.“Our companies are considering opportunities, without waiting for further restrictions from Europe, to conclude new long-term contracts with our partners and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China”, Novak said.

LNG Tankers Divert to Asia as Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply - LNG tankers are diverting toward Asia as buyers scramble for replacement cargoes following supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters) — More tankers carrying liquefied natural gas are diverting towards Asia as buyers scramble for replacement cargoes after the Middle East war halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted supplies from Qatar, the world's second-largest seller of the fuel. Map of the Strait of Hormuz. (Map Source: Global Energy Infrastructure.) Shiptracking data by analytics firms Kpler and LSEG show three LNG tankers diverting towards Asia so far. Carrying U.S. cargoes from the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi LNG terminals, respectively, the Simsimah and Clean Mistral tankers pivoted toward the South Atlantic on March 4 after heading northeast towards Europe. Earlier this week, the BW Brussels, carrying a Nigerian cargo from Bonny LNG, pivoted away from its initial Atlantic-bound course on March 3, and is now Asia-bound via the Cape of Good Hope. The price of the U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark was $2.97 per million British thermal units on Thursday versus $17.01 per MMBtu for the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark and $15.495 per MMBtu for the Japan-Korea Marker, the Asian benchmark. The higher European and Asian prices are more than enough to offset the cost of longer distances to move the cargoes to Asia. "Cargoes have started to be diverted to Asia, away from Europe in recent days, and the prevailing JKM-TTF spreads, averaging much above the U.S. shipping differentials, indicate flexible U.S. cargoes will likely start to come to Asia on stronger netbacks," said Energy Aspects analyst Kesher Sumeet. While some Asian buyers are delaying spot purchases or not awarding tenders due to elevated prices, others are paying up to secure cargoes. "Buyers from South Korea, India, Taiwan, Bangladesh, and Thailand have been seeking replacement spot cargoes, though many remain hesitant to award tenders due to high prices or a lack of offers," said Sumeet. "India and Bangladesh are reportedly securing spot cargoes above $20 per MMBtu, but the volumes awarded remain well below the levels impacted due to Qatari disruptions," he said, adding that Asian buyers will unlikely be able to replace all the lost Qatari cargoes for March and April. Bangladesh has secured two spot cargoes from Gunvor and Vitol at $28.28 per MMBtu and $23.08 per MMBtu, respectively. Additionally, a power utility in western Japan is seeking replacement cargoes after previously expecting deliveries from Qatar beginning in June 2026, while another major Japanese utility has been seeking prompt cargoes amid growing concerns that supply availability for late March and early April delivery may tighten, said Rystad Energy analyst Masanori Odaka. Cargo diversions could intensify competition between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Asia takes more than 80% of Qatar's LNG exports, and Europe is increasingly relying on LNG to fill gas storage since the region halted most Russian pipeline gas imports after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While global front-month arbitrage was open to Asia earlier this week, the U.S. front-month arbitrage firmly pointed to Europe on Thursday, as high freight prices and a falling JKM-TTF spread make Europe more competitive, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

Peru Pipeline Leak Halts Pluspetrol Gas Production, Disrupts LPG Supply --A pipeline rupture near Peru’s Camisea gas field forced Pluspetrol to suspend LPG production, cutting supply from a facility that provides roughly 70% of the country’s domestic demand. (Reuters) — Peru's Pluspetrol suspended liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production following a pipeline rupture and leak in the country's Amazon region, the company said in a statement on March 4. The rupture of the pipeline, operated by Transportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP), occurred Sunday in the district of Megantoni, in the Cusco region, a few kilometers from the Camisea gas field where Pluspetrol extracts natural gas. The outage has cut off the flow of natural gas to Pluspetrol's fractionation plant in Pisco. The facility supplies approximately 70% of Peru's LPG consumption, according to company data. TGP said on March 2 it would implement temporary restrictions on gas supplies to industrial and electricity sector users while it repairs the leak. Pluspetrol said its Pisco and Malvinas plants "remain ready to resume full production capacity once TGP has restarted its natural gas and gas liquids pipeline transportation service." The company added that it is coordinating with national authorities and has made logistical resources available to TGP to resolve the situation. Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines also declared a 14-day emergency for natural gas transportation on March 2, a move intended to prioritize domestic market supply.

Peru suspends gas exports after pipeline rupture sparks energy crisis - (Reuters) - Peru suspended natural gas exports as it grapples with its worst energy ‌crisis in two decades following a pipeline rupture at the country's largest gas field, Energy and Mines Minister Angelo Alfaro said on Thursday. The halt follows a leak reported Sunday, which forced operator Transportadora ⁠de Gas del Peru (TGP) to shut down a section of the pipeline to isolate the damage. Alfaro, speaking to Congress, said this was the most serious energy crisis in the last two decades. "The reduction in the (gas) supply has been tremendous, brutal... only 10% is being delivered," he added. The Ministry of Energy and Mines ‌had ⁠declared a 14-day emergency for the national pipeline network to prioritize supplies for residential, commercial, and essential services while repairs are underway. TGP also had implemented temporary restrictions on gas ⁠supplies to industrial and electricity sector users while it repairs the leak. Energy firm Pluspetrol suspended production of liquefied petroleum gas on ⁠Wednesday after the outage cut the flow of natural gas to its Pisco fractionation plant. The facility ⁠supplies approximately 70% of Peru's LPG consumption, according to company data.

QatarEnergy Declares Force Majeure As One-Fifth Of Global LNG Supply Goes Dark -Qatar’s long-standing image as the world’s most reliable LNG supplier abruptly ended on Wednesday after QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared force majeure to customers, a major shock to global gas markets given that Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, with 80% of those volumes to Asia. "Further to the announcement by QatarEnergy to stop production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products, QatarEnergy has declared Force Majeure to its affected buyers," QatarEnergy wrote in a press release on Wednesday morning. Qatar’s LNG chief Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi is confronting the biggest energy shocks of his career after an Iranian drone strike earlier this week forced the shutdown of Ras Laffan, Qatar’s top LNG export hub, for the first time in three decades. The most immediate consequence is reputational. Wall Street analysts say the drone attack may permanently weaken Qatar’s ability to command premium gas pricing and long-term contract terms, as customers, especially in Asia, rethink their exposure to U.S. LNG in the calm warm waters of the Gulf of America. The duration of the shutdown at the world’s leading LNG exporter is not yet known, but restarting gas liquefaction after a full shutdown can take up to two weeks, with another two weeks needed to return to full capacity. In other words, the shutdown and the time required for liquefaction plants to return to full capacity could last a month or more. In terms of flows, Qatar’s LNG exports mostly go to Asia. The latest data shows more than 80% of Qatar’s LNG is shipped to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Europe is also another large customer. At the start of the week, European gas (TTF) futures nearly doubled on LNG disruptions from the Gulf area due to the Strait of Hormuz being paralyzed. On Monday, Goldman analysts wrote (read report) that "significant upside risk to prices from a potential sustained disruption of LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz. In a scenario where flows halt for one month, we think it is likely that TTF and JKM could approach 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu) -- 130% above current levels -- a threshold that triggered large natural gas demand responses during the 2022 European energy crisis." Vessel tracking website MarineTraffic said Wednesday morning that traffic in the critical waterway has collapsed by 90%. "Unlike several other vessel segments where movements have largely ceased, some tankers are still travelling east and west through the strait, with a number of voyages occurring under AIS blackouts," Kpler analyst Matt Wright wrote in a note. Tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz down by 90% Analysis of vessel activity indicates tanker transits are now around 90% lower than last week. Matt Wright, Principal Freight Analyst at Kpler, explains: "Unlike several other vessel segments where movements have largely… pic.twitter.com/JIhFoAkQKO — MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 4, 2026 The Qatari LNG production halt has pushed TTF prices to €60/MWh (about $20), with JKM seeing a modest increase to $13.5/mmBtu. Although Qatar sends >70% of its exports to Asia, market reactions suggest Europe as the main concern. How much and how long prices rise depends on the extent and duration of disruptions; our revised forecasts assume disruptions could persist for next 1-2 weeks. Given a tight market, any disruption may cause widespread effects, leading to elevated prices in 2026. We raise TTF to €38 in 1Q26E, €37 in 2Q26E, and €35 on average for 2026E. JKM revised up to $14 in 1H26E and $13 in 2026E. US Henry Hub is less affected but rising US LNG demand may push prices up to $5.00 in 1Q26E, then down to $3.15 in 2Q26E, averaging $4 for 2026E. Longer-term forecasts unchanged (see Figure 1). How much gas has been impacted so far? Currently, nearly 140bcm of gas supply is either disrupted or at risk. 1) 118bcm from Middle Eastern LNG exports: Qatar accounts for 110bcm, and the UAE adds 8bcm, together representing 21% of total LNG flows. 2) 10bcm of gas exports from Israel to Egypt have been completely halted. 3) 10bcm of pipeline supply from Iran to Turkey is also at risk. Given the significant volumes involved, markets remain focused on the duration and impact of Qatar’s suspension. What are the alternatives? Spare capacity remains limited. The US could increase production in response to prices, but has little room for growth (Figure 15). We see Russian piped gas as the feasible option with capacity of >130bcm but faces political barriers (link). Short disruptions may be offset by later ramp-ups, but persistent supply issues may be hard to resolve without new capacity. Golden Pass start-up is near, yet the project will steadily boost output. It is too early to say the situation mirrors the 2022 energy crisis, yet we cannot dismiss the possibility of additional shocks. The previous supply shortfall was offset equally by reduced demand and increased LNG supply, but now there is little scope for such move. Are flows shifting? or stalling? how importers to react? Despite only 7% of Qatar's exports going to Europe, Europe faces more pressure due to low storage, limited alternatives, and potential for greater competition for spot cargos with Asia. Pre-disruption, EU storage was estimated at 26% by end-March. The ongoing disruption from Qatar throughout March could bring a loss of up to 1bcm. Given Qatar’s monthly exports to Asia (excl. China) reaching 4–5bcm, if these buyers enter the spot market, storage levels could drop further toward 20%. China is less vulnerable given its other fuel/supply options and natgas storage. We expected Europe to need an 8% y/y increase in LNG imports (see our Jan outlook), which may now be even more with Qatar and other disruptions, making the impact most pronounced. A wide range of outcome and prices; upside risks remain Uncertainty around Middle East tensions may cause significant volatility in prices, with risks skewed to the upside while conflicts persist. Iran's attacks on Qatari LNG/energy facilities could drive prices >€100 (or $30) if they escalate. With limited alternatives, prices may stay higher for longer in that case, with potential demand adjustments as situation develops. If US/Israeli operations conclude and Iran ceases attacks soon, risk premiums could drop quickly, lowering prices to ~€30s (or $10-11) as weather gets mild. The full note can be viewed here and is available to pro subs. Beyond Qatar, Iraq has shut in 460,000 barrels per day of production at the West Qurna 2 field and will likely be forced to cut more than 3 million bpd if the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed. President Trump has offered insurance and U.S. military escorts in an effort to unfreeze the critical maritime energy chokepoint. China's massive exposure to cheap energy from Iran and other Gulf nations has infuriated Beijing, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that his government will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation. China really needs the strait to remain open China, the world's biggest crude importer, sources about half of its seaborne imports - or 5.4 million bpd - from the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted for an extended period, China would take a meaningful energy and industrial hit, first through soaring energy prices, then through supply woes, and ultimately through an economic growth hit. It is increasingly clear that Beijing will do everything in its power to keep the strait open and pressure Tehran to avoid a prolonged shutdown. All of this comes before Trump heads to Beijing.

What to Know About Iran: How War in the Middle East is Roiling Natural Gas Markets -A disruption in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz threatens to delay 21–25% of monthly global LNG supply.Table titled “Prompt Month Statistics – Previous 5 Trading Days” details Henry Hub futures, LNG feedgas, NBP and TTF futures, storage levels, global DES LNG prices and spark spreads for Feb. 23-27.After a series of retaliatory missile strikes threatened infrastructure in Qatar, the world’s second largest LNG exporting country paused operations at its Ras Laffen facility. Vessels leaving Oman and the United Arab Emirates have also signaled diversions or slowing as reports of attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman increase, according to Kpler ship tracking data. Combined, all three countries export an average of 8 million tons/month (Mt), or about 88 Mt/y, according to Kpler data. The majority of volumes head to China, India, Japan and South Korea. The amount of Middle East LNG heading to Asia has increased since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as global markets have adjusted to Europe’s draw on spot cargoes from the United States and Africa.

Prolonged War in Middle East Could Send Natural Gas Prices Soaring Higher in Weeks Ahead --Global energy prices moved sharply higher on Monday and have the potential to skyrocket as there appears to be no end in sight to the war that broke out across the Middle East over the weekend. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing total U.S. LNG deliveries of 18.63 Bcf/d on March 2, 2026, compared with 18.55 Bcf/d the previous day, with individual export terminal volumes and capacity utilization rates for Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Cameron, Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines, Golden Pass, Elba Island and Cove Point, highlighting strong Gulf Coast export activity. At A Glance:
More U.S. forces head to middle east
TTF, JKM could hit $25
Europe seen most susceptible

Oil spill from cargo ship washes up on Thai tourist islands - An oil spill from a capsized cargo ship in the Indian Ocean is washing ashore on the pristine beaches of Thailand's most famous resort island, a lawmaker told AFP Friday. The Panama-flagged Sealloyd Arc sank off Phuket on February 7 while sailing for Chattogram in Bangladesh, Thai authorities said, spilling around 1,700 liters of oil. The coagulated residue has begun washing up on the island's Ya Nui Beach, as well as a smattering of smaller islands in Phuket province, local lawmaker Chalermpong Saengdee told AFP. The oil has tainted Koh Hey's Banana Beach -- a popular destination for island-hopping tourists seeking turquoise clear waters -- and is expected to keep spreading, he said. "It's very worrying because the incident happened two weeks ago, but the situation is not improving and it poses a threat to marine life and coastal reefs," he said. "We are also concerned it could affect Thailand's tourism and economy." The ship lies at a depth of about 60 meters (197 feet), making it difficult for divers to contain the leak, Chalermpong said. Footage on public broadcaster Thai PBS showed locals combing beaches with rakes and buckets to collect globs of the oil. While the Thai Navy has been using dispersants to treat the spillage, Chalermpong has called for government funding to salvage the wreck. Thailand suffered 130 oil spills affecting more than 23 provinces between 2017 and 2021, according to the Department of Marine and Coastal Resources. Environmental organizations warn oil spills cause severe and long-lasting damage to ecosystems -- coating wildlife, contaminating food sources and releasing toxic chemicals.

Analysts Warn of Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History | Rigzone - The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has the potential to be the largest oil supply disruption in history if oil flows via the narrow Strait of Hormuz remain low or come to a halt. That’s what was stated in an analysis piece sent to Rigzone by the S&P Global team late Monday. The analysis piece was penned by Jim Burkhard - who heads S&P Global Energy crude oil research - and the S&P Global Energy Crude Oil Markets team. “Initially, energy infrastructure had not been targeted by Iran, but that has changed with attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar,” the analysis piece noted. “This adds a critical further dimension to the shock wave hitting oil and gas markets,” it added. S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea data shows that, on March 1, five oil tankers transited the Strait, the analysis highlighted. This compares with around 60 tankers per day recently, according to the analysis. In the first two months of this year 20.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and products was shipped via the Strait of Hormuz, with 82 percent going to Asian markets, the analysis noted, adding that about 18 percent of global LNG supply also transits the Strait as well. “The loss of a good part of this energy supply could fuel financial and economic shocks,” the piece warned. “If tankers halt transiting the Strait, as much as 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and products - most of which is crude oil - are at risk, with the precise amount dependent on the utilization of Saudi and Emirati pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz,” the analysis added. “A supply disruption even at the mid-range of volumes at risk - seven to eight million barrels per day of crude and products - would be higher than the volume that was initially at risk when Russia invaded Ukraine or the volume cut off from the market following Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait,” it continued. The analysis highlighted that, before the outbreak of hostilities, the S&P Global Energy outlook expected global crude oil production to exceed demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and by an average of one million barrels per day for the year overall. The analysis noted, however, that “the reduction in tanker traffic and the targeting of energy infrastructure have the potential for a shift - and possibly a historic one - from a surplus to a large deficit, which would mean prices high enough to ration scarce supplies and lower demand”. In the analysis, Burkhard pointed out that “the duration of the war is critical”. “If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so it will be historic. Beyond that it would be epochal for the oil market with prices rising to ration scarce supply and impacts in financial markets,” he warned. “While not certain, the risk is real. The potential impact on global oil supply and the world economy could be so significant that it is difficult to imagine a worst-case scenario - no tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz - lasting more than a short while, but it could,” he continued. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global, said in the analysis piece, “key questions are how much supply will be lost, for how long, and how do major powers react?”. “That a scenario capable of causing the greatest oil supply upheaval in history is even under consideration is, by itself, alarming,” Yergin added. In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Tuesday morning, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, highlighted that, on February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. “Initial developments point to a short-lived but expansive campaign, with the threat of further escalation in the coming weeks,” the analysts noted. “For global oil and gas markets, the conflict introduces risk through two primary channels: damage to physical infrastructure and disruption to transit in the Strait of Hormuz,” they added. In the report, the analysts noted that maritime traffic “has dropped sharply and at least three tankers have been attacked” in the Strait. “Ultimately, the magnitude and persistence of any price moves will hinge on the scale and duration of disruptions in the strait and the extent of any damage to infrastructure,” the analysts said. The BMI analysts stated in the report that, depending on how the conflict evolves, they see three pathways for crude, “broadly aligning with our Country Risk team’s three pathways for military escalation”. “Currently we are largely in our low case scenario, with certain spillovers into the mid case,” they said. In its low case scenario, BMI anticipates a “short-lived, large campaign, but with greater regional spillover, [and] partial/full Hormuz disruption”, the report showed. This scenario sees a settled oil price trading range of between $75 and $90 per barrel. BMI’s mid case scenario also anticipates a “short-lived, large campaign, but with greater regional spillover, [and] partial/full Hormuz disruption”, but this scenario projects a settled oil price trading range of between $90 and $110 per barrel, the report outlined. In this scenario, “direct tanker strikes, vessel seizures, swarm tactics or limited mine-laying force temporary pauses while lanes are assessed” and infrastructure outages “become more consequential”. Under BMI’s high case scenario, there is a “prolonged, large-scale campaign, greater regional spillover, [and] partial/full Hormuz disruption”. This case sees a settled trading range between $110 and $130 per barrel and warns of a risk of prices jumping over $130 per barrel. In this scenario, commercial transit of the Strait “becomes commercially non-viable even if not formally ‘closed’” and infrastructure sees “extensive and systemically significant outages”. In a separate BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Tuesday, BMI analysts said they are maintaining their 2026 Brent crude forecast at $67 per barrel, “despite a stronger than expected price performance in Q1 and the outbreak of military hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran”. “While the distribution of outcomes has widened materially and near-term upside risks have intensified, our analysts’ core view for a short-lived, albeit large, campaign is consistent with a brief spike in oil prices in March, followed by rapid retracement heading into Q2, as geopolitical risk premia fade and investor focus shifts back towards loose underlying fundamentals,” BMI analysts stated in that report. “This will limit the impact on prices from an annual average perspective,” they added. The analysts noted in that report that they are factoring in a trading range of around $75 to $90 per barrel in March, “bringing the Q1 average to around $71 per barrel”. “In Q2, we forecast a far lower average, at $63 per barrel,” they said. “This view makes several key assumptions, most notably a rapid normalization of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and no material lasting damage to Middle East Gulf export infrastructure,” they noted. “Stripping away conflict-related disruptions, the global oil market looks oversupplied for H1 and the loss of the geopolitical risk premia surrounding Iran would likely be the trigger for a sharp sell-off in Brent,” they continued. “Over H2, we expect a gradual recovery in prices, and a marked reduction in volatility, as oil demand continues to rise and economic momentum and market sentiment improve,” they stated. “That said, whereas the risks to our $67 per barrel average forecast were previously skewed to the downside, they now skew to the upside, given the potential for wider escalation and larger and longer-lasting conflict-related disruptions,” the analysts went on to state. Rigzone has contacted the White House, Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the S&P analysis piece and the BMI reports. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.

Petronas Sees No Disruption from Mideast War for Now -Malaysian energy giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd. said it is closely monitoring the conflict in the Middle East even though it has seen no direct impact on its operations so far. "Petronas is closely monitoring the developments in parts of the Middle East with concern," the company said in an emailed response to queries on Tuesday. "At time of writing, there were no reports of any direct threats to Petronas personnel or assets, and operations continue as usual." Petronas has oil and gas exploration concessions in Abu Dhabi's Al Dhafra region, as well as long-term sales and purchase agreements with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. for supply of liquefied natural gas. Iran's retaliation in the Middle East conflict has directly affected the UAE, triggering missile interceptions, airport disruptions and flight suspensions. Petronas said it will prioritize the well-being of those supporting its operations in the region while taking steps to safeguard its assets and ensure business continuity. The company said it is coordinating with authorities to assess the evolving situation and take precautionary measures.

Global Oil Prices Surge To Seven-Month High As US-Israel Strikes On Iran Spark Middle East Crisis | Sahara Reporters - Global oil markets were thrown into turmoil on Monday as crude prices surged sharply and stock markets across Asia, Europe and the United States slid following coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, and retaliatory missile attacks targeting Israeli territory and US military installations across the Middle East. The intensifying confrontation has disrupted global energy supply chains, rattled investors and triggered fresh fears of a broader regional war that could cripple oil exports from one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude, rose steeply in early Monday trading. According to data from the CME Group, WTI was selling at $72.79 per barrel, marking an 8.6 percent increase from Friday’s trading price of approximately $67. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed even higher. Al Jazeera reports that data from FactSet showed Brent trading at $79.41 per barrel, up 9 percent from Friday’s closing price of $72.87 while the surge pushed Brent to a seven-month high. Traders are increasingly betting that oil supplies from Iran and other Middle Eastern producers could slow dramatically or grind to a halt altogether. This followed statements from US President Donald Trump suggesting that military operations would continue until American objectives were achieved. Military strikes by the US and Israel showed no sign of easing, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region. The exchange has heightened fears that neighboring countries could be drawn into the conflict, threatening broader instability in the oil-rich Gulf. At the centre of global concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes daily. The strait, bordered to the north by Iran, serves as the export artery for oil and gas shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran itself. Although the waterway has not been formally blocked, marine tracking platforms revealed that oil tankers were piling up on both sides of the strait, either wary of potential attacks or unable to secure insurance coverage for transit through the high-risk zone. Two vessels traveling through the strait were reportedly attacked on Sunday, further escalating tensions. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Reuters that the impact on oil markets was already severe. "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of ‌traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets,” Leon said. “Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil.” The oil price spike is expected to have direct consequences for consumers worldwide. Higher crude prices typically translate into increased petrol prices at the pump and rising costs for transportation, food and essential goods, a worrying development at a time when many economies are still grappling with inflationary pressures. Iran previously demonstrated its ability to disrupt the strait. In mid-February, Tehran temporarily shut down sections of the passage for what it described as a military drill. That move alone caused oil prices to jump by approximately 6 percent in subsequent days. Now, with actual hostilities underway, markets fear a more prolonged disruption. In an attempt to stabilise supply, eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announced on Sunday that they would boost oil production. The planned increase, originally scheduled before the outbreak of hostilities, will see output rise by 206,000 barrels per day in April, a figure that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The countries raising production include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. However, analysts warn that the additional supply may not fully offset disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Stock markets across Asia reacted swiftly to the escalating conflict. Japan’s Nikkei index fell 1.3 percent on Monday as investors dumped equities amid rising geopolitical risk. China’s blue-chip stocks slipped by 0.1 percent, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2 percent. Iran exports approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, with the majority destined for China. Any sustained disruption could force Beijing to seek alternative suppliers, potentially driving global energy prices even higher. Although analysts note that China maintains substantial strategic oil reserves and could increase imports from Russia, uncertainty remains high. In the Gulf region, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets, citing “exceptional circumstances.” As a net energy exporter, the United States stands to gain relatively from higher crude prices. Additionally, US Treasury bonds remain viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of global instability. The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.1787, reflecting investors’ flight to safety amid mounting uncertainty.

Oil Prices Surge as U.S.–Israel Strikes on Iran Disrupt Middle East Supply and Strait of Hormuz Shipping - The oil market surged as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened and looked set to last for weeks. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliation by Iran forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the oil complex sharply higher. The oil market was also supported after Iran launched drone attacks against several Gulf countries in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli attacks, forcing Saudi Arabia to shut down its 550,000 bpd Ras Tanura refinery. The crude market gapped higher from $67.83 to $75.00 and quickly extended its gains to over $8.30 as it posted a high of $75.33, a level not seen since June, on the opening after the U.S. and Israel preemptively struck Iran on Saturday. The oil market later partially backfilled its gap as it eased back to a low of $69.20. The market bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading pattern from about $70 to $73.50 for much of the session as it continued to digest the developments in the Middle East. While, the crude market retraced more than 50% of its gain, the April WTI contract still settled up $4.21 at $71.23 and the May Brent contract settled up $4.87 at $77.74. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22.95 cents at $2.9004 and the RB market settling up 29.27 cents at $2.3706. OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output increase of 206,000 bpd for April on Sunday just as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation disrupted oil flows from key members of the producer group in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been increasing oil production and exports in recent weeks by around 500,000 bpd in preparation for U.S. strikes on Iran. Sources stated that OPEC+ had debated options ranging from 137,000 bpd to 548,000 bpd. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 930,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending March 6th, increasing available refining capacity by 367,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 830,000 bpd in the week ending March 13th. Valero Energy Corp reported maintenance activity at its 205,000 bpd Houston, Texas refinery that may require the use of its safety flare system. According to a filing with the Illinois Emergency Management Agency, an equipment malfunction on Sunday at ExxonMobil’s 264,000 bpd refinery in Joliet, Illinois resulted in flaring. According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail price tracker GasBuddy, U.S. average retail gasoline prices are set to break above $3/gallon for the first time in more than three months as the conflict between the United States and Iran interrupts global oil flows. They were as low as $2.85/gallon in February.

Oil, gasoline prices jump amid Iran strikes, with future uncertain -The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have surged oil prices, and costs for consumers at the pump are expected to rise. The price of global benchmark Brent Crude oil was at about $77 per barrel as of Monday afternoon, up from about $71 a week ago and about $66 per barrel a month ago. U.S. gasoline prices were also up Monday following the weekend’s strikes, averaging about $3 per gallon nationwide, up 6 cents from a week ago and 12 cents from a month ago. Analysts say the war could push prices further up in the weeks and months ahead. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said he expects gas prices to rise between 10 and 15 cents over the course of the next week or two. That could be on top of a general price rise that occurs in the spring amid more demand for gasoline. De Haan projected that “by the time prices peak, they could be 25 to 40 cents higher than today.” Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for Gulf Oil, estimated that gas prices could peak at between $3.25 and $3.50 per gallon this spring. National average gasoline prices last spring were between $3.20 and $3.30 per gallon. The analysts also noted that prices for diesel could go up even more and worsen inflation because shipping will become more expensive. Kloza predicted diesel prices could soon be on par with where they were in 2022 after oil and oil product costs jumped in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Diesel prices are … probably going to be back around $4 or higher here in the second quarter,” he said. “Those are stunning highs, comparable to what we saw in 2022.” De Haan similarly said, “Gasoline prices are going to go up, but diesel prices are going to go up far more noticeably.” “Inflation numbers are going to start heating up a bit if diesel is continuing to rally,” he added. On Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, saying they killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The future of the conflict remains uncertain, with President Trump saying Monday that U.S. operations are projected for four to five weeks but adding “we have capability to go far longer than that.” Trump also told CNN the operation’s “big wave” has yet to take place. Meanwhile, in retaliation, Iran struck a Saudi oil refinery that De Haan described as “a big player in diesel markets globally.” Kloza said that much of the current price increases are related to apprehension from potential oil sellers rather than any change in the quantity of oil being produced. He added that Trump’s “big wave” comment may be particularly scary to traders. “Right now, with quotes like that, you’re just not going to have anybody willing to sell into the marketplace. I think they probably would be smart if they did, but it’s just too risky,” he said. De Haan said uncertainty about the status of the Strait of Hormuz could also put an actual constraint on supply. The equivalent of about 20 percent of the world’s oil consumption flows through this strait, located between Oman and Iran, each day. “Should you travel the Strait of Hormuz, there’s a lot of risk right now in doing so. You don’t want to be targeted by Iran,” he said. “Shippers may be seeing a very high jump on the price of insurance that they have to carry — just a lot of challenges,” he added. “It’s probably just a bit easier instead of navigating those challenges to just hold on for the time being.” Kloza, however, said he believes “we’re going to see tankers moving through the strait once things calm down a little bit.” But, he added, prices may come down again in time for November. “Those within the administration, I think they believe that they can get a handle on this, and they can, they can restore reasonable flows in time for the midterms,” Kloza said.

Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output (Reuters) - Oil and gas prices surged on Monday following Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran and retaliation by Tehran that forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities ‌across the region and disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to a sustained rise in oil prices, fuelling inflation that could undermine global economic growth and push up U.S. retail gasoline prices as well. Brent crude futures rose as much as 13% to $82.37 a barrel, highest since January 2025, before settling up $4.87, or 6.7%, at $77.74 a barrel. The contract surged in post-close trading after Iran's Revolutionary Guards late Monday said they would set fire to any ship attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $71.23, up $4.21, or 6.3%. The benchmark at one point gained more than 12% to $75.33, highest since June. The initial surge in oil prices was less dramatic than some analysts had ⁠predicted, but Iran's retaliatory attacks on other key energy-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar fanned fears that a longer, protracted back-and-forth would risk additional supply disruptions. "Key questions are how much supply will be lost, for how long, and how do major powers react?" On Monday, Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike. Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas and state-owned QatarEnergy was set to declare force majeure on LNG shipments. The widening Iran conflict also left 150 ships stranded at anchor around the Strait of Hormuz after a seafarer was killed and at least three tankers were damaged. On a typical day, ships carrying crude oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand sail through the Strait of Hormuz along with tankers hauling diesel, gasoline and other fuels to major Asian markets including China and India. The waterway is also the conduit for about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. JPMorgan said a three- to four-week squeeze on Strait of Hormuz traffic could force Gulf producers to shut output and push Brent above $100. Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X, said ‌the North American ⁠energy complex was well positioned to hedge against disruptions should there be any lasting impacts on global energy trade. The relatively muted response in U.S. natural gas markets versus European and Asian benchmarks illustrates that point. Front-month natural gas futures rose 10.1 cents, or 3.5%, to $2.96 per million British thermal units on Monday. However, the Dutch front-month contract at the TTF natural gas hub , the benchmark European price, settled up about 40% at 44.51 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) on the Intercontinental Exchange. Asian LNG prices jumped almost 39% on Monday with the S&P Global Energy Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), widely used as an Asian LNG benchmark, at $15.068 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), Platts ⁠data showed. Global tensions have contributed to a 19% rally in Brent this year, while WTI has gained about 17%, even though the International Energy Agency and other analysts believe the market is well supplied, with extra output from producers such as the United States, Guyana and OPEC+ expected to outpace global demand this year. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil output by 206,000 barrels per day in April. Every ⁠OPEC+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except for Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said. Globally, visible oil inventories stood at 7.827 million barrels, enough for 74 days of demand, which is near a historical median, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices crossed $3 a gallon for the first time since November on Monday. Analysts expect the widening conflict to further ⁠increase prices in the coming days. U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures rose to a two-year high on Monday at $2.90, gaining about 9%, while gasoline futures rose about 4%. “While we do not know where these disruptions will end or how the conflict will ultimately resolve, the near-term result is likely to be heightened volatility in global energy markets and a potential rerouting of global oil and gas cargoes," said Global X's Zhu.

Asian Markets Slump, Oil Prices Rise as Iran War Fears Intensify - Asian markets slumped on Tuesday, while oil prices climbed higher, as investors fret about the widening war in Iran and the Middle East. US and Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic have cut energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – about a fifth of global oil transits – creating fears of a new energy crisis that will ramp up inflation. The biggest market impact was felt in Korea, where the KOSPI index fell by more than 7.2%, while the Nikkei in Tokyo was also down by 3.1%. Analysts say market moves have been comparatively mild so far because there is still hope that the crisis might be limited to a few weeks and may not cause a major problem for the global economy. But analysts warned that the longer it goes on, the more painful it would be as supply chains are hit and prices surge. US President Donald Trump said the war, which began on Saturday (Feb 28) with a strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was going “substantially” ahead of schedule, although he warned that it could go on for more than four weeks. And for the first time, he also laid out objectives – destroying Iran’s missiles, navy and nuclear programme, and stopping its support for armed groups across the region. Notably, they did not include toppling the Islamic Republic. So far, there has been no end to hostilities in sight. The US embassy in Riyadh was hit by two drones, which caused a limited fire and some damage, according to a Reuters report which cited a Saudi defence ministry post on X. The US State Department, meanwhile, urged Americans to leave all of the Middle East from Egypt, and heading east. Iran has responded by unleashing missiles and drones across the Middle East, including at Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Dubai, while threatening explicitly to drive up global energy costs. That fiery rhetoric sent oil prices soaring nearly 14% on Monday before slightly easing, while European natural gas prices spiked almost 40% after Qatar’s state-run energy firm said it had halted liquefied natural gas production. Meanwhile, a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to “burn any ship” seeking to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. “We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. Oil price will reach $200 in the coming days,” he warned. Crude surged again on Tuesday, with Brent up more than 4% and back above $80 a barrel, and WTI climbing more than 3%. India, which is one of four Asian giants dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East, said it has started to ration gas supplies to industries after production in Qatar was shut down, Reuters reported. The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, shot up more than 33%. The rise in energy costs could give most central bankers a headache as they look to bring down inflation while also cutting interest rates to support their economies. “A spike in energy prices creates a dilemma for central banks,” said Rodrigo Catril at National Australia Bank. “Stagflation makes central banks very uncomfortable, a longer-lasting energy shock is inflationary and at the same time it weakens growth.” Chris Weston at Pepperstone added: “With the Strait of Hormuz temporarily constrained, the longer the disruption persists, the greater the risk that additional facilities and infrastructure across the Gulf region may be forced offline.”

Oil Prices Leap Higher as Iraq Shuts Down Production At Giant Oil Fields Iraq has begun curtailing oil production at key southern fields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is also shutting in roughly 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi oil officials. The cuts follow escalating regional tensions that have effectively stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi authorities said disrupted navigation and a shortage of available tankers have pushed storage tanks in southern export terminals toward critical levels, forcing production reductions.Separately, a drone attack targeted the UAE port of Fujairah, the country’s largest oil export hub outside the Strait of Hormuz. The incident adds to mounting security risks for Gulf energy infrastructure, though there have been no confirmed reports of catastrophic structural damage at the port.The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one fifth of global oil flows. Any sustained disruption materially tightens the seaborne crude market, particularly for Middle Eastern barrels bound for Asia. Oil prices have risen sharply as traders price in the growing geopolitical risk premium and the potential for broader supply interruptions across the Gulf. At 09:30 EST on Tuesday morning, Brent crude futures jumped to 7.99% to $83.95, while WTI futures jumped 8.75% to $77.46 per barrel.

Oil Prices Surge as Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating U.S.–Israel Conflict - The crude market continued to surge on Tuesday after prices soared over 6.2% on Monday, as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran widens, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers and container ships are avoiding the waterway after insurers cancelled coverage for vessels and global oil and gas shipping rates soared. Concerns increased after a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass the waterway. Meanwhile, United Arab Emirates authorities said they were dealing with a serious fire at Fujairah port and Iraq’s Kirkuk crude oil loadings at Turkey’s Ceyhan port were halted on Tuesday. Iraqi oil officials said Iraq may be forced to cut its oil output by more than 3 million bpd in a few days amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has as of Tuesday decreased production from the Rumaila oil field by 700,000 bpd and cut 460,000 bpd from the West Qurna 2 field. The oil market posted a low of $70.41 on the opening and continued on its upward trend throughout the overnight session. It posted a high of $77.98 by mid-morning before it gave up some of its sharp gains amid news that Saudi Arabia was attempted to reroute some of its crude exports to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would provide insurance to all maritime trade in the Gulf region. The April WTI contract settled up $3.33 at $74.56 and the May Brent contract settled up $3.66 at $81.40. The product markets ended sharply higher once again, with the heating oil market settling up 28.65 cents at $3.1869 and the RB market settling up 8.68 cents at $2.4574. Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr Albusaidi, reaffirmed his country’s call for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel and a return to responsible regional diplomacy. The Gulf country had been mediating talks between Iran and the United States before the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes began on Saturday. Bloomberg News reported that the International Energy Agency is ready to aid in stabilization of the global oil market affected by the war in Iran, noting that member countries hold more than a billion barrels in emergency stockpiles. Bloomberg reported that diesel’s premium to crude oil increased to its highest level since the summer of 2023, as the conflict in the Middle East threatens global supplies. Benchmark diesel futures in Europe cost over $40/barrel more than crude earlier on Tuesday, the widest that premium or crack spread has been in 2 ½ years. The fuel’s premium to oil also increased in the U.S. and Asia. Janiv Shah, a vice president for commodity markets at Rystad Energy, said diesel deliveries to Europe from refineries in Asia that were taking crude from the Persian Gulf “are now severely at risk”. He added that “Persian Gulf volume flows to Europe are also risked.” Standard Chartered sees asymmetric upside risk to its forecasts if the Middle East conflict escalates further and impairs production from Iran or other regional producers. The bank raised its first-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $74/barrel from $62/barrel, its second-quarter forecast to $67/barrel from $63/barrel, and its 2026 average forecast to $70/barrel from $63.50/barrel.

Oil prices jump nearly 5%, settle at highest since January 2025 on Middle East conflict - (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up 4.7% on Tuesday, the highest since January 2025, as U.S.-Israel battles with Iran intensified, disrupting energy shipments from the Middle East and stoking fears of ‌a longer conflict. Brent futures settled up $3.66, or up 4.7%, at $81.40 a barrel, its highest settlement since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $3.33, or 4.7%, at $74.56, the highest settlement since June. Brent is up 12% since the conflict began on Saturday. Israeli and U.S. forces pounded targets across Iran on Tuesday, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes around the Gulf as the conflict spread to Lebanon. Iraq, No. 2 crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries behind Saudi Arabia, cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day. The cuts could more than double within days as the country runs out of storage space for crude it cannot export ⁠due to the crisis. Iran has responded with strikes against regional energy infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes. Tankers and container ships are avoiding the strait after insurers cancelled coverage for vessels and global oil and gas shipping rates soared. Concerns increased after Iranian media reported on Monday that Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass through the strait. "Iran’s retaliation has been broader than its previous, mostly symbolic measures, and its approach has resulted in several regional flashpoints posing real risk to supply," analysts at Standard Chartered wrote in a note. President Donald Trump said U.S. and Israeli air attacks were projected to last four to five weeks but could go on longer. Trump said the U.S. was considering oil tanker insurance support.. Brent hit a session high of $85.12, its highest since July 2024. It pared gains after Trump said the war effort has eliminated many Iranian naval and air targets. "Just about everything has been knocked out," he said, predicting Tehran will eventually lose ‌its capability ⁠to lob missiles. "Trump said Iran is not going to keep this fight up for longer...so the market is thinking there might be a quicker resolution than previously feared," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. India and Indonesia said they were seeking alternative energy supplies. In China, some refineries were shutting or bringing maintenance plans forward. Since the attacks began, Qatar has stopped liquefied natural gas production, Israel has stopped production at some gas fields and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest refinery. Saudi oil giant Aramco is attempting to reroute some crude exports to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz where the risk of attacks has slowed shipping to a near halt, sources said. U.S. diesel futures jumped about 10% to their highest since October 2023. U.S. gasoline futures climbed nearly 4% to $2.46 a gallon, their highest since July 2024. Crack spreads , which measure refining profit margins, soared to their highest since 2023. In global natural gas ⁠markets, benchmark Dutch contracts, British gas prices and European and Asian LNG prices all jumped. The premium of Brent over WTI widened to nearly $8 a barrel, its highest since November 2022. Analysts have said that when this premium rises over $4, it can support U.S. crude exports. U.S. crude and distillate stocks rose while gasoline inventories fell last week, according to market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 5.6 million in the week ended February 27, higher than the 2.3 million barrels analysts projected energy firms added to storage. ,

Oil Prices Rise As Iran Crisis Disrupts Middle East Supply - On Wednesday, oil prices crept up as the current war between the United States, Israel and Iran persisted in manipulating energy related movements along the Middle East yet the gains were curtailed by a move by Washington to possibly come up with naval support aimed at defending tanker traffic flow along the Strait of Hormuz. The Brent crude futures became higher 1.17 or 1.4 percent to be at 82.57 a barrel at 0408 GMT and the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased 72 cents, or approximately 1 percent, to 75.28 a barrel. Both benchmarks have risen approximately 5 percent during the last two trading periods according to Reuters with the growing geopolitical tensions. The price increase is after increasing disturbance in energy deliveries in the Gulf region. Earlier this week, Israeli and U.S. forces launched attacks targeting targets in Iran, which were retaliated by Tehran in attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the region that produces almost a third of all oil in the world. Iran has also targeted tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz which is among the most important energy routes in the world. Approximately a fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the tiny waterway and any form of interruption poses a significant threat to the energy markets of the world. Cargo transit via the strait has virtually grounded in the past few days as shipping corporations re-evaluated the risk of security and insurers recalled war-risk policies on all vessels transiting the strait. Analysts believe the geopolitics have taken over the historic market motives like inventory information, economic growth and OPEC production predictors. The normal price indicators such as inventory information, U.S. economic statistics or OPEC remarks have now evidently yielded place to geopolitics, according to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. Physical export data in the Gulf, any verified tanker accidents, U.S. naval activity, and the tone of Iran are the pointers to consider in the near term, she added. The situation in the region is still very sensitive in energy markets. The second-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Iraq has already reduced the production by almost 1.5 million barrels per day, as a result of storage capacity constraints and absence of export routes, officials told Reuters. The nation threatened to close almost 3 million barrels per day of production in the course of days in case of export failure. The closures depict the pace at which the conflict is impacting the world supply chains. Analysts believe that a long-term disruption may move the oil prices to even greater heights as shipping channels will be blocked or the production facilities in the region will be shut down. In the past few days, oil prices increased by almost 10 percent due to the escalation of the conflict and the start of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Even though the supply continues to be a cause of concern, the positive trend concerning oil came to a halt when the United States President Donald Trump indicated that the United States might engage in measures to defend tanker traffic across the Gulf. Trump indicated that the U.S. Navy would escort any oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz upon the need-be, and that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation would issue political risk insurance and other financial guarantees to facilitate maritime commerce within the area. Energy analysts believe that the offer can be used to re-establish confidence in shipping routes, but its implementation can be long. According to ING analysts, although the move to have insurance guarantees is a great initiative, insurers have already started to cancel war-risk covers to ships passing through the strait. Such guarantees are promised as the insurers cancel the war risk cover on ships that are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is good news, and it is apparent that it cannot be achieved immediately. Naval escorts would come in handy, however, this would be a long process at least the bank said in a research note. In the meantime, countries and businesses are considering different supply policies. India and Indonesia are starting to find alternative energy supplies to cut on the reliance of Gulf supplies whereas some Chinese refineries are closing units or scheduling upkeep shutdowns in response to supply complications. The oil profits were also capped by the indications of increasing inventories of crude oil in the United States. According to market sources, the American Petroleum institute data indicated that in the past week U.S. crude stockpiles had increased by 5.6 million barrels which was much higher than an estimate of 2.3 million barrels as had been expected by the analysts. U.S. energy information administration official inventory numbers are to be released later Wednesday and may affect the short-run market trend. In the meantime, analysts explain that geopolitical events have been driving prices of oil dominating over normal supply-and-demand factors. The war has already caused a major volatility in the energy markets and traders project further price movements as markets adjust to the happenings in shipping security, production rates in the area and diplomatic processes to stabilize the Gulf. Oil markets will be very volatile to geopolitical indicators in the days ahead with the energy infrastructure being threatened and shipping routes being narrowed.

Gas and oil prices surge in Europe amid Iran conflict -- Energy prices in Europe are surging as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts supplies. The European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures briefly jumped nearly 50 percent from Monday's close. They hit the upper-65-euro-per-megawatt-hour range at one point, the highest level since January 2023. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for gas and oil transport, has been disrupted as the United States and Israel continue the conflict with Iran. Attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar led to the suspension of LNG production at a state-run firm, adding to supply concerns. Crude oil prices are also spiking. The benchmark WTI futures rose to the upper-77-dollar-per-barrel range at one point on Tuesday. That's the highest level in about eight months. Brent crude oil futures in London briefly traded at the lower-85-dollar-per-barrel range, a 20-month peak.

Crude Stocks Rise 3.5 Million, Highest Since May 2025 -With oil flows passing through the Straits of Hormuz blocked indefinitely, markets were paying especially close attention to today's weekly DOE report on oil stocks, to see how much capacity the US has in case of a prolonged lockout. The result was satisfactory. The DOE reported the following weekly changes:

• Crude +3.475MM, more than the expected +3.00MM, and the highest since May 2025
• Gasoline -1.704MM, down to the lowest since Jan 9, 2026
• Distillates +429K, biggest increase since Jan 2026
• Cushing +1.6MM, rising to the highest since Aug 23, 2024.

Visually: Also notable: production dipped modestly by -6kbd to 13.696MMb/d, yet the total US output remains remarkable especially when considering the sharp drop in wells in recent years. Finally, while still relatively low, Cushing stocks continue to rise, and this week's 1.6 million barrel increase to 26.5 million pushes them to the highest since August 2024. Overall, this was a welcome report as it showed that not only is US oil production humming along, but US commercial stocks continue to increase and in a worst case scenario of prolonged Hormuz closure, the US can remain relatively energy independent, even if Asia and especially China and Korea scramble to find alternatives to Gulf energy.

Oil Prices Hold Firm as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Halt and Middle East Tensions Support Market -- The oil market ended the session slightly higher after posting an inside trading day. The market remained supported by widening tensions in the Middle East and the continuing halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth day. The market traded to a high of $77.23 in overnight trading before it erased its gains and sold off to a low of $73.28 early in the morning. The market was pressured by a New York Times report stating that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence signaled openness to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency to talks on ending the war. The crude market later bounced off its low and once again retraced some of its losses ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled up 10 cents at $74.66, while the May Brent contract settled unchanged at $81.40. The product markets continued to settle sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 10.69 cents at $3.2938 and the RB market settling up 5.75 cents at $2.5149. U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the U.S. Navy is currently focused on the Iran conflict and it will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as it can”. Earlier, White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said the Pentagon and the U.S. Energy Department are working on plans to secure the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safety for oil tankers amid the war on Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that crude oil markets are well supplied amid the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, and that the U.S. plans to make a series of additional announcements on the issue. He said “The crude markets are very well supplied. There are hundreds of millions of barrels on the water away from the Gulf. But more importantly, we have a series of announcements that we’re going to be making.” The U.S.-Iran war widened sharply on Wednesday after a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people, and NATO air defenses destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired towards Turkey. The escalation came as the powerful son of Iran’s slain supreme leader emerged as a frontrunner to succeed him, suggesting Tehran was not about to buckle to pressure, five days after the United States and Israel launched a military campaign. The missile incident is the first time that Turkey has been drawn into the conflict, but U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said there was no sense that it would trigger the Atlantic alliance’s collective defense clause. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General, Dan Caine, said that Iran was firing fewer missiles as the war progressed and added that U.S. strikes will now expand inland inside Iran. According to Reuters estimates, at least 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Hundreds of other vessels remained outside Hormuz unable to reach ports. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.23 million bpd of capacity offline in the week ending March 6th, increasing available refining capacity by 68,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.18 million bpd in the week ending March 13th. Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT

Oil extends weekly gains as Iran conflict rages on, with Brent up about 15% -- Oil prices continued to extend their weekly gains on Thursday, as the war in the Middle East entered a sixth day with no signs of de-escalation, heightening fears of supply disruptions from the key crude-producing region. At 08:52 ET (13:52 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in May advanced 2.3% to $83.28 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 2.9% to $76.82 per barrel. The crude benchmarks are up 15% and 14.5%, respectively, for the week, with Brent trading just below its highest level since July 2024. Get premium commodity market insights with analyst comments on InvestingPro Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz concerns in focus The conflict in the Middle Eat, which began over the weekend when the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, has shown no signs of ending, with the U.S. sinking an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka in international waters, in a move that underscored the widening scope of the conflict. The U.S. Senate voted on Wednesday, largely along party lines, against a motion aimed at stopping the air campaign and requiring that military action be authorized by Congress. Meanwhile, Tehran rejected a report that suggested Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had reached out to Washington to negotiate an end to the conflict, dismissing it as “pure falsehood” and accusing Western media of spreading misinformation, dampening hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Supply concerns have intensified after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints through which roughly a fifth of global oil shipments pass. The disruption has already begun affecting regional producers. Reports showed that Iraq declared force majeure on some crude exports as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were severely disrupted. Iraq is the second-largest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day for lack of storage and an export route, officials told Reuters. "Successfully blocking the Strait of Hormuz would leave significant upside to the market, potentially with Brent hitting $140/bbl, with supply losses unable to be offset," said analysts at ING, in a note. "However, a full and prolonged blockage of the strait would likely be unsuccessful, with any attempts to do so leading to a rapid response. Partial disruptions, which could include seizing or attacking tankers, would likely mean Brent spikes towards $100/bbl initially but settles in a largely $80-90/bbl range."

Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Halt Forces Middle East Production Cuts -- The oil market rallied higher on Thursday after it posted an inside trading day on Wednesday as U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts global oil supplies and shipping on the Strait of Hormuz has been halted. Iraq and Qatar have already shut in oil and gas production due to the shipping paralysis through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has shut down 1.5 million bpd of crude production because it is running out of storage for oil production, while Qatar has shut down its production of its liquefied natural gas for the same reason. Analysts noted that Kuwait and the UAE could be next to cut their supply as storage space runs out. The crude market posted a low of $78.53 in overnight trading and continued to rally higher throughout the session. It extended its gains to $7.5 as it rallied to a high of $82.16 ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled up $6.35 at $81.01, while the May Brent contract settled up $4.01 at $85.41. The product markets were also well supported, with the RB market settling up 15.6 cents at $2.6709 and the heating oil market settling up 32.05 cents at $3.6143, a level not seen since November 2022, amid a lower supply outlook in the fuel markets. According to analysts, traders and sources, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are the Gulf oil producers who will be next to reduce output if they cannot export crude through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran crisis, as storage tanks fill up. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near halt after Iranian hits on six vessels since the crisis started. Earlier this week, Iraqi oil officials said Iraq cut oil production by nearly 1.5 million bpd, and those cuts could widen to more than 3 million bpd within days as the country runs out of storage and cannot export crude due to the crisis. This week, analysts at JPMorgan said that Kuwait has about 18 days before output would need to be curtailed due to storage being used up, and the UAE 22 days if vessels are not re-routed, as estimated from the first day of the conflict. Two oil traders who deal in UAE crude said Abu Dhabi may need to lower production earlier than this if exports through the Strait do not resume. According to ship tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler that excludes some of the smallest tankers, around 300 oil tankers remained inside the Strait as vessel traffic in and out of the chokepoint nearly halted following the outbreak of war. According to the AAA, the national average cost of gasoline, has increased 27 cents since last week to $3.25/gallon. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is considering asking China to reduce oil purchases from U.S. adversaries like Russia and Iran. It reported that the U.S. Treasury Secretary may raise the issue in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Paris in mid-March, adding that they are planning to firm up a framework for the April summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens (Reuters) - Oil prices rallied on Thursday on growing disruption to global oil supplies caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with U.S. futures prices ‌rising faster than the international benchmark Brent futures as Washington said it may take action in the futures market to combat rising energy prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $6.35, or 8.51%, to $81.01, its highest since July 2024. Brent crude settled up $4.01, or 4.93%, at $85.41 per barrel, a fifth session of gains. The divergence between the two benchmarks was most pronounced around 1500 ET. The two contracts typically trade in lockstep unless there is a specific change impacting supply or demand relevant to one of the benchmarks. The U.S. Treasury Department may take action in the oil futures market as part of measures to combat ⁠rising energy prices expected to be announced as soon as Thursday, a senior White House official said. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was not concerned about rising U.S. gas prices driven by the widening Iran conflict, telling Reuters in an exclusive interview that the U.S. military operation was his priority. Trump also said that the United States wanted to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader. Iraq and Qatar have already shut in oil and gas production due to the shipping paralysis through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq shut down nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of crude production because it is running out of storage for the oil it produces without oil tankers to take it away. Qatar has shut down its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the same reason- LNG tankers cannot traverse the Hormuz shipping chokepoint. Kuwait and the UAE could be next to cut supply as storage space runs out, according to analysts, traders and sources. "There is no movement in the Strait ‌of Hormuz ⁠so prices will grind higher, and with countries having to shut in production then we will be delayed even longer because it is not like you can just resume production at full strength, that will be a problem for a while," Around a fifth of global oil flows through the Strait. "... if this persists into next week, the eventual re-starting of production and re-vamping of shipping once the Strait is re-opened will also take time to ⁠get back online." Attacks on oil tankers continued on Thursday in the Gulf, as the Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe reported its hull was breached after a blast near Iraq's port of Khor al Zubair. Those attacks, along with Chinese measures to reduce fuel exports, pushed prices higher, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The refined product market is also showing ⁠signs of stress due to missing Middle East exports, he added. Some oil refineries in the Middle East, China and India shut their crude units because of the conflict in the Middle East. As a result of a lower supply outlook in fuel markets, U.S. diesel futures jumped 10%, reaching just over $3.60 a gallon during the session. Around ⁠300 oil tankers remained inside the Strait of Hormuz after vessel traffic in and out of the chokepoint nearly halted following the outbreak of war, according to ship tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler that excludes some of the smallest tankers.

Oil prices surge towards $150 as Qatar warns of Gulf export shutdown - Qatar’s Energy Minister gave a stark warning stating that the escalated tensions with Iran could force all Gulf energy producers to halt exports within a week. He warned of an increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel as oil prices have skyrocketed to 22-month highs on Friday, March 6. West Texas Intermediate crude raised 4% ($84.12) while Brent experienced 2% increase ($87.12). This marks the steepest weekly gains in the market since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI alone soared 25% this week. While speaking with the Financial Times, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that all Gulf exporters are in a state of force majeure if the war continues further. Qatar, for its part, had already suspended its liquefied natural gas production on Monday, which accounts for 20% of the world’s supply, after Iran retaliated against Israeli and US attacks by targeting Gulf countries. Kaabi said: “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted.” “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that can’t supple,” he added. Crude oil prices may surge to as high as $150 in two to three weeks if tankers cannot pass through the strait, said Kaabi, who also forecasts that prices for natural gas may rise to $40 for every million British thermal units.

Oil Prices Fall After US Waiver Allows India To Buy Russian Crude -The world oil prices fell on Friday when the United States declared a temporary waiver that would allow the Indian refiners to take in the Russian crude oil shipments that were currently stranded at sea and relieve panic over interruption of global energy supply amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. First trading on benchmark crude contracts was lower after the announcement of the U.S. Treasury. Brent crude in April contract was selling at 84.21 per barrel at the Intercontinental Exchange, declining 1.52 percent since the close of the last session. The U.S. standard West Texas Intermediate slumped further and went down 2.10 percent to 79.31 per barrel during the early trading. This fall has been preceded by an explosion of over 15 percent in oil prices during the last week as the United States, Israel and Iran scuffled. Reuters market data show that since the conflict has occurred the oil markets have been very sensitive to any geopolitical events and this is largely because of the threat of an oil supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important routes of oil transportation in the world. Analysts indicated that the waiver alleviated fears of supply in the short term because it enabled the oil that is already at sea to be sold to customers before this tightened the world markets further. The U.S government ratified the move as a short term step towards stabilizing energy supply and avoiding an abrupt oil market shock to world oil markets. Scott Bessent stated that the waiver was meant to ensure that the oil supply chains were stable in the ongoing geopolitical crisis. In order to allow oil to continue flowing into the world market, the Treasury Department is issuing a 30-day waiver to Indian refiners which will allow them to buy Russian oil. He pointed out that the waiver could only affect the current situation with crude shipments already stranded on the sea and it would not bring lasting economic benefits to Russia. This is a deliberately short-term action that will not give much financial advantage to the Russian government since it will only allow transactions to be carried out with already stranded at sea oil. This announcement comes after previous warnings by Washington that any interference with the tanker routes via the Strait of Hormuz would pose a threat to world energy supplies in case the conflict escalated. The U.S officials have also indicated that in case of a worsening situation, navy escorts would be employed to safeguard the oil tankers that travel through the strategic corridor. India is a major importer of crude oil in the globe and this has exposed it to be too susceptible to any disturbance in global energy market. Almost 90 percent of the crude oil needs in the country are imported, with the Middle East and Russia being the major contributors of this imported quantity to maintain the domestic demand. Shipping data provided by Kpler indicated that in February Russia supplied 1.04 million barrels per day on average of crude oil to India, therefore, ranking it the largest supplier to India. Saudi Arabia was the second one with an approximate of 1 million barrels per day, and Iraq had around 980,000 barrels per day. Each day, India goes through approximately 5.5 million barrels of crude oil, which makes the need to have stable supply routes rather significant. Much of the Indian imports also pass via the Strait of Hormuz where tanker traffic is closely monitored owing to the growing military tensions within the region. The energy analysts have estimated that approximately 1.5 million to 2 million barrels of oil that are bound to India pass through the corridor every day. Oil Markets are still being affected by Geopolitical Risks. Although Friday saw a fall in the prices, the energy markets are volatile as the traders evaluate the effects that the current developments of military in the Middle East may have. The recent spike in crude prices was an expression of the concern that any interruption in the tanker traffic or oil production would restrict the supply in the world market at a time it already was experiencing high demand. Washington officials have indicated that military activities against Iran would one day stabilize the world energy markets by lowering the perceived security dangers to shipping routes. But analysts add that this is an ever-changing situation and may change easily based on events within the conflict. The diplomatic actions of key oil exporters and world powers are also under close monitoring by the market players since any repeat of the actions might take the prices even higher. In the meantime, the temporary waiver that will allow Indian refiners to acquire Russian crude oil is being quite helpful to oil markets because it will make sure that the oil that is already in transit will flow to consumers and stabilize the global supply in the short run.

Brent Hits $90, WTI in Pursuit in 6th Day of Iran War -- Brent crude crossed $90 bbl Friday with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude not far behind, as the Iran war neared its first week, paralyzing about a fifth of global petroleum supplies. The soaring shortage of energy worldwide forced the U.S. to announce its first reprieve on Russian oil sanctions, allowing Indian refiners to access Russian oil already at sea. By 10 a.m. EST, ICE Brent crude for May delivery was up $5.19, or 6%, to $90.60 bbl after hitting a 2-1/2-year high of $91.89. The spread between April and May contracts widened to nearly $6. The global crude benchmark is up 23% since the close of Feb. 27, which marked the eve of the start of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran. NYMEX WTI crude futures for April delivery were up $6.69, or 8%, to $87.80 bbl after reaching $89.62 earlier, its highest since October 2023. For this month alone, the U.S. crude benchmark has risen 30%. The spread between the April and May contracts for this benchmark widened to nearly $4. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed significantly to a low of $2.27 bbl at Friday's peaks for both benchmarks from $5.46 at Friday's settlement. Refined oil prices rallied sharply too, with diesel hitting near 3-1/2-year peaks and gasoline approaching two-year highs. NYMEX ULSD futures' front month, April, rose $0.0805 gallon to $3.6948 after reaching $3.7485, a peak not seen since November 2022. RBOB futures for April delivery added $0.0315 to climb to $2.7024 gallon, after surging to $2.7333, a high since April 2024. The U.S. Treasury, via its Office of Foreign Assets Control, issued a General License 133 on Thursday, March 4, permitting the sale and delivery of Russian-origin petroleum products already loaded on vessels as of March 5. The reprieve was specifically for India, although it marked the first easing of Russian sanctions by the Trump administration after intensifying them months to try and deprive the Kremlin of oil money used to fund Moscow's occupation of Ukraine. U.S. and Israeli air raids, meanwhile, hit Iran's defense capabilities for a sixth straight day while Tehran has responded with a barrage of missiles and drones aimed at neighbors such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE who are also U.S. allies.

Iran war sends US crude futures up 12% a barrel (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures climbed 12% on Friday due to disruptions to global oil supplies because of the expanding ‌U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 a barrel, up $7.28, or 8.52%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished at $90.90 a barrel, up $9.89, or 12.21%. . In one week, WTI rose 35.63% and Brent climbed 27%, the biggest weekly gains since the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020. For the second consecutive day, U.S. crude futures rose more than Brent futures as refiners worldwide scrambled to buy alternative crude to plug the gap left by disruption to Middle East supplies. "Refiners and trading houses are searching for alternative barrels, and the U.S. is the ⁠largest producer," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS. Several factors contributed to the divergence in gains between WTI and Brent on Friday, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil analytics at Rystad Energy. High levels of refinery production due to favorable margins and strong arbs to Europe accounted for the split between the two contracts, Shah said. Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel, according to an interview published on Friday. "The worst-case scenario is developing before our eyes," J "I think the forecasts of $100 a barrel all are to come to true." Oil started its steep rally after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran last Saturday, prompting Iran to ‌stop tankers ⁠moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supply equal to about 20% of world demand usually passes through this waterway each day. With the Strait now effectively closed for seven days, that means about 140 million barrels of oil - equal to about 1.4 days of global demand - has been unable to reach the market. The conflict has spread across the Middle East's key energy-producing areas, disrupting output and forcing shutdowns of refineries and liquefied natural gas plants. "Every day the Strait ⁠stays closed, prices will go higher," Staunovo said. "The belief in the market was that Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn't want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk." U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview on ⁠Thursday that he was not concerned about rising U.S. gasoline prices linked to the conflict, saying "if they rise, they rise." The possibility that the U.S. Treasury Department might take action to combat rising energy costs briefly pushed prices down by more than 1% early on Friday. The Treasury ⁠on Thursday granted waivers for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil. The first waivers went to Indian refiners, who have since bought millions of barrels of Russian crude

Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history - U.S. crude oil on Friday posted its biggest weekly gain in futures trading history, as the escalating war in the Middle East has triggered a major disruption to global fuel supplies. West Texas Intermediate futures surged 12.21%, or $9.89, to close at $90.90 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent rallied 8.52%, or $7.28, to settle at $92.69 per barrel. U.S. crude soared 35.63% for the biggest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract dating back to 1983. Brent jumped about 28% for its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.President Donald Trump on Friday demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged war that could wreak havoc on the global oil and gas market. The war has already brought traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for energy supplies, to a near standstill.Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told The Financial Times on Friday that crude prices could reach $150 per barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers were unable to pass through the Strait.This could "bring down the economies of the world," Kaabi said. "Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues," Kaabi told the FT. "All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure. If they don't, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that's their choice." The Trump administration on Friday announced a $20 billioninsurance program for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, though the measure did little to calm the crude market. Iraq has shut down 1.5 million barrels per day of production, two Iraqi officials told Reuters Tuesday. Kuwait has also started cutting production after running out of storage space, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal on Friday. "The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients in a Friday note.Production cuts could approach 6 million bpd by the end of next week if the Strait is not open to traffic, Kaneva said. JPMorgan expects the United Arab Emirates to show supply constraints next week.The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly 27 cents in the last week through Thursday to $3.25, according to data from U.S. travel organization AAAThe war between Iran and the U.S. entered its seventh day on Friday. In a press conference on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. had "only just begun to fight." "Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation," he told reporters.

Tanker hit by explosion off Kuwait, causing oil spill as Middle East conflict intensifies – India TV - A tanker was hit by a "large explosion" in the waters off Kuwait, causing an oil spill, British maritime security agency United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Thursday. The UKMTO center, run by the British military, said the attack happened off the coast of Kuwait in the northern Persian Gulf near Mubarak Al-Kabeer, Kuwait. The vessel's master witnessed the blast before spotting a small craft fleeing the area near the Mubarak Al-Kabeer. "The Master of a tanker at anchor, reports witnessing and hearing a large explosion on the port side then seeing a small craft leave the vicinity," the UKMTO stated in a social media post on X. Maritime officials expressed concern over the environmental consequences of the subsequent leak. "There is oil in the water coming from a cargo tank which could have some environmental impact. The vessel has taken on water, there are no fires reported and the crew are safe and well. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO," the agency added The UKMTO did not specify what caused the latest maritime incident, but Iran has previously used "limpet mines"—explosive devices that divers attach magnetically to a ship's hull—to target vessels in the region. These mines are designed to damage ships without necessarily sinking them and have been linked to several tanker attacks in past Gulf tensions. So far, most of the recent maritime security incidents have occurred around the Strait of Hormuz and the nearby Gulf of Oman—two crucial shipping lanes through which a large share of the world's oil and gas exports pass. Attacks or threats in these areas have raised concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies and commercial shipping. Oil prices have soared following Iranian attacks on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and global stock markets have been hammered over worries that the spike in oil prices may grind down the world economy. US stocks appeared steadier at Wednesday's opening. The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran, more than 50 in Lebanon, and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. The United Nations says 100,000 people fled the Iranian capital in the war's first two days alone.

"Unknown Projectile" Strikes Container Ship In Strait Of Hormuz As Maritime Crisis Explodes - This morning has been very active on the maritime security front. The latest incident involves a container ship that was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reports that a container ship about two nautical miles off Oman, transiting eastbound through the critical and narrow waterway, was "hit by an unknown projectile just above the waterline, causing a fire in the engine room.""The crew have now abandoned the vessel and all crew are accounted for with no reported injuries," the maritime security center wrote in an update on X.UKMTO's alert did not identify the container ship by name, but there are currently three transiting the paralyzed waterway. We suspect that the vessel hit was "Safeen Prestige," though there is no official confirmation. UBS analyst Cristian Nedelcu provided clients with a clearer picture of the logistical nightmare unfolding due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz: Rising uncertainty, however a potential prolonged disruption could push rates up. We note that since the . end of November, the EU logistics and shipping sector share prices were up on average ~18%, outperforming Stoxx 600 by ~5%. We believe this mainly reflects expectations for an improvement in the European and US economies in 2H 2026. In the context of the escalation in the Middle East, a potential prolonged and significant increase in oil prices could represent a headwind to demand raising question marks around global freight volume growth going forward.Nevertheless, we believe a potential prolonged disruption could also bring upwards pressure on ocean and air freight rates on some routes. We believe a scenario of continuous disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern air space would bring upwards pressure to ocean and air freight rates touching Middle East and Asia-Europe, with potential for temporary incremental profits for ocean carriers, dedicated freighters operators (DHL Express), and increased complexity that could lead to some benefits for freight forwarders operating on these routes.

China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, sources say (Reuters) - China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S.-Israeli war on Tehran intensifies, three diplomatic sources told Reuters.The war, ‌which entered its sixth day on Thursday, has left the critical shipping passageway all-but shut, with countries around the world cut off from a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. China, which has friendly relations with Iran and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supplies, is unhappy about the Islamic Republic's move to paralyse shipping through the Strait and is pressing Tehran to allow safe passage for the vessels, according to the sources.The world's second-largest economy gets about 45% of its oil from the Strait. Ship tracking data showed a vessel called the Iron Maiden passed through the Strait overnight after changing its signalling to 'China-owner,' but far more sailings will be needed to calm global markets. Crude oil prices are up more than 15% since the conflict began amid production stoppages as Tehran attacks energy facilities in the Gulf as well as ships crossing the Strait. Its missiles have also reached as far afield as Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Turkey, destabilising global markets and prompting major ‌economies to ⁠warn about inflation risks. Crude tanker transits through the strait fell to four vessels on March 1, the day after hostilities broke out, versus an average of 24 a day since January, Vortexa vessel-tracking data showed. Around 300 oil tankers remain inside the Strait, according to Vortexa and ship tracker Kpler. Sugar industry veteran Mike McDougall told Reuters that ⁠Middle East sugar executives say there are some ships transiting the Strait at the moment, all of which are either Chinese or Iranian-owned.Jamal Al-Ghurair, the managing director of Dubai-based Al Khaleej Sugar, told Reuters some ships carrying ⁠sugar are currently allowed to pass through the Strait while others are not, without giving further details. Iran's government said earlier in the week that no vessels belonging to the United States, Israel, European ⁠countries or their allies would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the statement made no mention of China.

More Than 100 Reported Killed in Strike on Girls’ School in Iran. Here's What We Know | TIME - A strike on a girls' elementary school in the opening salvo of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on Saturday killed more than 100 children, according to Iranian officials and teachers inside the country. The strike hit the school in Minab, a city in the Hormozgan province of southern Iran, on Saturday morning, the start of the school week in Iran, when children were in class. Shiva Amelirad, a Canada-based representative of the Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations, a network of teachers’ unions in Iran, told TIME that at least 108 children had been killed in the attack, according to information she had received from sources in Minab. Read More: Did Trump Have the Legal Authority to Strike Iran? An Expert Explains “Due to the limited capacity of the hospital morgue, refrigerated vehicles have reportedly been used to store the bodies of the victims,” she said. TIME has not been able to independently confirm the casualty figures. Amelirad said a decision was made to close the school when U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began, “but the time between the announcement of the school’s closure and the moment of the explosion was very short, and many families had not yet arrived to pick up their children.” She said that in some cases, multiple children from the same family were killed in the explosion, and that some teachers were killed in the attack. The U.N. education agency, UNESCO, said in response to the attack that it was “deeply alarmed” by the impact of strikes on educational institutions. “Initial reports indicate that an attack on a girls' primary school in Minab, southern Iran, has resulted in the deaths of over 100 individuals, including numerous students. The killing of pupils in a place dedicated to learning constitutes a grave violation of the protection afforded to schools under international humanitarian law,” the agency said in a post on X.

Death toll from school bombing in southern Iran reportedly rises to 165 -- The death toll from a missile strike on a girls’ school in southern Iran has risen to 165, according to state media. The IRNA news agency also cited a local prosecutor as saying that 96 people had been wounded in Saturday’s strike in Minab. The strike on school appears to be the worst mass casualty event of the US-Israeli-led bombing campaign on Iran so far. Video and photographs of the aftermath, which have been verified as authentic and geolocated to the site, show hundreds of people gathered around the partially collapsed and smoking building, with rubble strewn across the street and men digging through it for victims. Screams can be heard in the background. In some of the images, schoolbags and textbooks are being pulled from the debris. Capt Tim Hawkins, the spokesperson for US Central Command, said the US was “aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations. We take these reports seriously and are looking into them”. The school building appears to be adjacent to an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps barracks. Hossein Kermanpour, the spokesperson for Iran’s health ministry, said in a post on X that the bombing of the school was “the most bitter news” of the conflict so far. “God knows how many more children’s bodies they will pull from under the rubble.” Restrictions on international reporting in Iran mean the Guardian and other independent media outlets have not been able to access the site in Minab or independently verify the death toll. The Nobel peace prize laureate and girls’ education advocate Malala Yousafzai said in a statement: “They were girls who went to school to learn, with hopes and dreams for their future. Today, their lives were brutally cut short. “Justice and accountability must follow. All states and parties must uphold their obligations under international law to protect civilians and safeguard schools.”

Funerals Held for 168 Minab School Victims as 69 Students Remain Unidentified - Palestine Chronicle Funeral ceremonies were held on Tuesday for the bodies of 168 victims of the Shajareh Tayyebeh (Taiba Tree) Girls’ Elementary School in Minab, in Hormozgan province, southern Iran. On the first day of the US-Israeli aggression, Saturday, the school was bombed in what Iranian authorities described as a massacre. A total of 168 people were killed, most of them students, in addition to school staff and several parents. The attack also left 96 others wounded. The broader assault began early Saturday morning, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across multiple provinces in Iran. The attacks resulted in the killing of hundreds of Iranians, including senior political and military figures and Ali Khamenei. Iranian state media and officials said the school was struck while classes were in session, describing the attack as a direct hit on civilian infrastructure. Iranian authorities announced that out of the 168 students killed in the strike on the Minab school, the identities of 69 remain unconfirmed. Hossein Sadeghi, head of the Information and Public Relations Center at the Ministry of Education, told Tasnim News Agency that 99 victims have been fully identified and their names publicly released. He stated that the remaining 69 students are still unaccounted for in official records, with their identities yet to be definitively established. To complete the identification process, Sadeghi said families will need to provide DNA samples to allow forensic confirmation. The Minab strike formed part of a broader military offensive that targeted multiple civilian locations across the country and resulted in heavy civilian casualties, according to Iranian officials.

Air Freight Rates To Spike As Iran War Escalates - The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday is already disrupting air cargo traffic in the Middle East, a key freight corridor between Asia and Europe where two of the world’s largest cargo airlines are based, and raising the potential for a rise in air freight rates. Airlines are suspending flights, rerouting traffic around the conflict zone and unable to use key transload hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar because of retaliatory missile attacks by Iran. More scheduling changes are anticipated in the days ahead. Longer routes require more fuel, reducing the amount of cargo aircraft can carry so as not to exceed weight limits. Some airlines are expected to add refueling stops. “We are expecting some potentially significant move in rates, especially Asia-Europe, if the situation continues with large-scale flight cancellations,” said Neil Wilson, editor of global price reporting agency TAC Index, said in an email exchange. FedEx has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. “The safety and well-being of our team members is our highest priority. As a result, pickup and delivery services in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and United Arab Emirates have been temporarily suspended until further notice. Shipments to and from other markets throughout the region may experience extended transit times,” the company said in a service alert. “We are closely monitoring the situation and will resume services as soon as it is safe to do so.” UPS has not announced any operational changes, but said in a statement provided to FreightWaves, “We are closely monitoring this fluid situation and using established contingency plans to manage our operations safely and efficiently.” Qatar Airways, which operates 29 Boeing 777 freighter aircraft and carries huge volumes of cargo on widebody passenger planes, has temporarily halted flights to, and from, Doha due to the closure of Qatar’s airspace. Qatar Airways Cargo offers shippers 13 tons of capacity per day.The airline warned customers to expect flight delays once the airspace re-opens and it resumes operations there. In the meantime, tendered cargo is being held at its hub and other stations around the world. Emirates Skycargo, the fourth-largest cargo airline by traffic, has similarly suspended flights through Dubai. It operates nearly a dozen Boeing 777 freighters and leases several crewed Boeing 747-400s from third-party carriers. The United Arab Emirates has closed its airspace and Dubai International Airport sustained minor damage to a passenger concourse from an Iranian attack, according to news accounts from the region.

War insurers cancel ship coverage as Iran conflict expands - Insurance companies that provide specialized maritime war coverage are canceling policies and preparing to increase rates as the risk of ships being destroyed or hijacked rises with the war in Iran expanding to the broader Middle East. The reaction by insurers highlights the unique way that companies that handle risk stemming from military conflicts adapt to the highly volatile market of war coverage. Insurance for war-related damage resembles flood insurance in the U.S. — both are excluded from standard property coverage because of the unpredictable nature of the risk, and are purchased as separate policies or riders. War policies include built-in protections for insurers from massive losses due to military strikes, terrorism or piracy. Policies generally include a seven-day cancellation notice that lets either party end coverage if the risk changes, the analytical firm Morningstar DBRS said in a report Monday.

Banking, payments services disrupted after Amazon UAE data centers hit in drone strikes - Apps and digital services in the United Arab Emirates are reporting outages following drone strikes on Amazon Web Services' data centers in the country.AWS said late Monday that two of its data centers in the UAE and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline. Consumer apps, including delivery and taxi platform Careem, and payments companies Alaan and Hubpay reported outages as a result of issues with AWS infrastructure in the country. Banking providers, including ADCB and Emirates NBD, alongside enterprise software providers like Snowflake , have also reported service disruptions. The U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran over weekend, killing the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and prompting waves of attacks by Tehran across the region. Military bases and critical infrastructure, including data centers and oil and gas production facilities, have also been targeted. The AWS Health Dashboard most recently reported that the disruption was "ongoing." "We continue to make progress on recovery efforts across multiple workstreams," the company posted on Tuesday at 8:14 a.m. PST. "We continue to strongly recommend that customers with workloads running in the Middle East take action now to migrate those workloads to alternate AWS Regions."

Middle East conflict poses fresh test to central banks as oil shock fuels inflation -Crude prices soared on Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Tehran responded with missile attacks targeting multiple Gulf countries.Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for oil shipments, has effectively stalled as the threat of attacks from Iran deterred vessels from passing through the waterway.Brent crude prices extended four days of gains, rising 1.6% to $82.76 a barrel on Wednesday, hovering near the highest level since January 2025. TheU.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices also rose for a third day to $75.48.Higher energy prices would ultimately filter through to consumer and producer prices, particularly for economies that rely heavily on Middle East oil imports, leaving central banks scrambling to reassess their interest rate trajectory. "The ongoing Iran conflict solidifies the case for many central banks to hold rates steady for now," a team of economists at Nomura said in a note on Sunday.As heightened tensions weigh on economic activity, policymakers are juggling a delicate task of balancing inflationary risk against slowing growth.The European Central Bank is caught in what ING economists called a "genuine dilemma," as an oil shock could push already sticky inflation higher while its growth outlook weakens under the strain of higher U.S. tariffs. They added that "to see a rate hike, the eurozone economy would have to show clear resilience."Europe imports nearly all of its oil and a significant share of its liquefied natural gas, raising the risk of a dual energy and trade shock, the bank said.ECB council member Pierre Wunsch said this week officials would avoid reacting hastily to any movements in energy prices. "If it lasts longer, if the increase in energy prices is higher, then we will have to run our models and see what happens," Wunsch said.

Iran death toll surges past 1,200 as Israel bombs two more schools - The death toll from the US-Israeli war on Iran surged past 1,200 on Thursday as two more schools were bombed in the city of Parand, southwest of Tehran—the third and fourth schools struck since the bombing campaign began six days ago. Iran’s Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs reported 1,230 people killed and more than 6,000 wounded. The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that more than 3,600 civilian sites have been damaged, including 3,090 homes, 528 commercial centers, 13 medical facilities and nine Red Crescent centers. The World Health Organization has verified 13 attacks on health infrastructure in Iran, resulting in four healthcare worker deaths and 25 injuries. The Valiasr Burn Hospital in Tehran has been rendered inoperable. The two schools struck Thursday—the Shahid Bahonar Middle School and the Arian Pouya Elementary School, located across the street from one another—sustained blown-out windows, collapsed classroom walls and heavy structural damage, according to photos verified by the New York Times. Iranian authorities had closed schools after declaring a month of mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and there were no immediate reports of casualties. But the strikes underscore the pattern of devastation being inflicted on civilian infrastructure across the country. The schools in Parand are near a telecommunications tower, the type of facility that has been a frequent target throughout the campaign. The Times noted that intentional attacks on schools are considered war crimes under international law. The Parand strikes came less than a week after the deadliest single atrocity of the war: the bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, which killed 168 people—most of them girls aged 7 to 12. BBC Verify’s analysis of satellite imagery and verified video revealed that both the school and the adjacent IRGC naval compound were hit in what munitions expert N.R. Jenzen Jones described as “multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes.” Video from the scene shows desperate families rushing through the wreckage, holding up bloodied schoolbags and books. Aerial footage captured three days later showed more than 100 graves freshly dug in rows at a nearby cemetery. Thousands of mourners filled the streets of Minab for the mass funeral, casting rose petals over the procession of coffins, some of them child-sized. Neither the United States nor Israel has accepted responsibility. According to the US-based Human Rights News Agency, at least 1,114 civilians have been killed since fighting began, among them 183 children. The devastation of Iranian society is accelerating. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday that 33 civilian sites have been hit, among them hospitals, schools, residential neighborhoods, the Tehran Grand Bazaar and the Golestan Palace complex, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Strikes also damaged the Azadi Stadium, the country’s largest sporting venue. Tehran residents reported intensifying bombardment. “Today is worse than yesterday,” one resident told Al Jazeera by phone. “They are striking northern Tehran. We have nowhere to go. It is like a war zone.”

Lebanese PM Bans Hezbollah From Resisting Israel Militarily -Hezbollah historically has fit in an unusual position in Lebanese politics, being a substantial Shi’ite political party as well as a substantial Shi’ite militia that was centered on resisting Israeli military intervention on Lebanese territory. Those statuses are coming into focus again as Israel ramps up its latest war against Lebanon.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has announced a full ban on all military and security activityby the Hezbollah movement, citing major Israeli attacks across Lebanon and insisting that Hezbollah restrict itself entirely to the political sphere.Hezbollah launched rockets against Israel over the weekend, citing ongoing Israeli military activity against Lebanese territory as well as the assassination of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Whether Hezbollah can be expected with this new ban to simply not retaliate as the war further escalates remains to be seen, but that appears to be the intent.These were the first rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israel since the ceasefire went into effect in November of 2024. Israel, by contrast, fired over 1,000 distinct strikes at Lebanese territory since the agreement.Salam insisted that the decisions surrounding war rest solely with the Lebanese state, and ordered the Lebanese military to enforce his decision. He also presented this new ban as an opportunity to forcibly disarm Hezbollah “immediately and firmly.”Salam has long sought to disarm Hezbollah nationally, and while the group cooperated with disarmament in the south, under the terms of the 2024 ceasefire with Israel, they have rejected disarmament elsewhere in Lebanon, citing the ongoing military actions by Israel as something they need to be prepared to resist.Israel had also demanding that full disarmament for some time, but the latest indications are that it would no longer be sufficient to end the Israeli war at any rate, with Israeli officials reportedly now demanding that Lebanon declare all of Hezbollah a “terrorist group” and disband them entirely as both a militia and a political party.The threat is that Israel will attack the Lebanese international airport, their ports and other civilian infrastructure targets if the government doesn’t capitulate to these latest demands. It’s not clear what legal process exists whereby Salam could outlaw a political party on the basis of foreign military demands. It would also greatly complicate Lebanese politics if such a ban were possible, as Lebanese politics are split along sectarian lines, and Hezbollah’s bloc is one of only two meaningful Shi’ite political parties. The Amal Movement, the other party, is often aligned with Hezbollah on political issues and it’s not clear if the Israeli demand to ban Hezbollah from politics would grant Amal a de facto monopoly among Shi’ite voters, or presume them to be banned as well for being Hezbollah-adjacent.

Israel expands the war on Iran, ordering mass displacement in Lebanon - Within days of joining the US in an unprovoked and illegal bombardment of Iran, Israel has opened a second front, attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, signalling the war’s transformation into a region-wide conflagration. Israeli jets have launched more than 250 strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, eastern Lebanon, and the southern coastal cities of Tyre and Sidon. At least 75 people have been killed, including Mohammed Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, and some of Hezbollah’s senior commanders. There are more than 400 wounded. Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh area of Beirut, Thursday, March 5, 2026. [AP Photo/Hassan Ammar] According to World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, three paramedics were killed and six injured in Tyre while rescuing people wounded in earlier explosions, in what appeared to be a “double-tap” strike by Israel. Israel claims its aim is to eradicate Hezbollah, an Islamist group allied with Tehran, and thereby eliminate Iran’s remaining influence in the Middle East. Hezbollah, backed by the Shi’ite Amal party and the impoverished Shi’ite masses, emerged in the 1980s as a mass movement amid the bloody convulsions of Lebanon’s civil war, fuelled by US interference and Israel’s brutal occupation of the south. The Zionist state has long sought to expand its borders, including up to the Litani River—encompassing roughly a quarter of Lebanon—under the guise of establishing a “demilitarised zone” in the south of the country. A Lebanon subordinate to Israel would also give Tel Aviv leverage over developments in Syria. Israeli officials have framed the latest aggression as retaliation for Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel early Monday—fire Hezbollah said was a response to the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran on Saturday. But Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the government had already approved a strike on Lebanon the previous night, before any rockets were launched. According to this account, Israel waited for a token number of rockets to land to manufacture the necessary pretext for a full-scale assault. Officials have stated that Israel’s attacks “will only intensify in the coming days, regardless of what Hezbollah chooses to do.” A leaked embassy cable provides indirect evidence of Israel’s intentions. On the eve of the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Israeli officials had told Washington that Hezbollah was rebuilding its military capabilities faster than the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) could degrade them and that neither Beirut nor Damascus could be trusted to contain the threat on Israel’s northern border. After Hezbollah fired a few rockets on Monday—the first time since the 2024 ceasefire—the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) instructed all residents south of the Litani River to evacuate to the north. This was far broader than any previous evacuation order, even during its 13-month war with Hezbollah in 2024, which displaced 300,000 people. Many of those targeted had already been displaced multiple times during earlier Israeli bombardments. On Tuesday, the IDF launched a ground invasion, deploying troops “deeper into southern Lebanon” and moving into at least nine towns, beyond the five positions Israel has occupied since the November 2024 ceasefire. The LAF withdrew from its border posts. The IDF described the renewed offensive as part of an “enhanced forward defence posture.” Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened on X, “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price for the firing toward Israel. Whoever follows in Khamenei’s path will soon find himself together with him in the depths of hell, along with all those eliminated from the axis of evil.” IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that the war would not end “before the threat from Lebanon is removed.” He vowed, “We will conclude the campaign when not only Iran is harmed, but Hezbollah also suffers a very heavy blow. We will continue to insist that Hezbollah be disarmed.” Over 100,000 IDF reserves have been called up for the planned operation. On Thursday, the IDF dramatically expanded its assault, issuing an unprecedented evacuation order for vast areas of Beirut, including Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold, and three other predominantly Shia suburbs. While in the past the IDF has ordered specific buildings to evacuate, this was the first time the Israeli military demanded that entire areas decamp. Furthermore, it dictated specific evacuation routes: residents of Bourj el-Barajneh and Hadath were told to move east toward Mount Lebanon on the Beirut–Damascus Road; residents of Haret Hreik and Shiyyah were told to move north toward Tripoli on the Beirut–Tripoli road or east toward Mount Lebanon via the Metn Expressway. “Save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately… We will notify you when it is safe to return to your homes,” warned IDF spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee. “It is forbidden to move south.”

At Least 52 Killed, Including Hezbollah Intel Chief, In Israeli Attacks on Beirut and Southern Lebanon - Israel continued to pound Lebanon overnight Sunday and into Monday, with multiple attacks targeting the capital city of Beirut, particularly the Shi’ite suburb of Dahiyeh. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports that at least 52 people have been killed and 154 wounded in the strikes.Among the slain, according to the Israeli military, was Hussein Makled, who they identified as the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters. They said he was responsible for providing Hezbollah with information about Israel and the Israeli military.The IDF further claimed to have hit at least 70 Hezbollah “weapon depots and rocket launching sites” across Lebanon, and has issued evacuation warnings against multiple parts of Lebanon which they intended to attack. All told, Israel launched some 221 strikes since Monday morning. The evacuation orders and the attacks on densely populated cities have fueled panic and overwhelmed the Lebanese highway system as civilians attempt to flee from the areas which are being targeted in favor of other places which may well also be targeted as well but are not being imminently threatened publicly.Israel has issued evacuation orders for no less than 50 sites across southern and eastern Lebanon, leaving the ability of locals to find places that aren’t subject to imminent strike strained.Israeli DM Israel Katz has vowed to send Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem to “the depths of Hell” and IDF chief Eyal Zamir said that attacks on Lebanon would continue “until the threat from Lebanon is eliminated.”Since Israel has launched near daily attacks on Lebanon for months before this latest war on Hezbollah there is a dubious line between Israel being at war in Lebanon and just doing their normal attacks at any rate.

Israel Pounds Lebanese Capital After Hezbollah Takes Credit for Rocket Fire at Haifa - Israel is attacking the Lebanese capital city of Beirut this evening after Hezbollah reportedly took credit for rocket fire against the Israeli city of Haifa. Israeli warplanes have also hit multiple other sites across southern and eastern Lebanon today, including the Bekaa Valley and the Nabatieh District.Details about the extent of the damage in Beirut are still emerging, but media reported the strikes centered on the Dahiyeh suburb, the Shi’ite-dominated suburb in Beirut’s south. There have yet to be casualty figures out of Dahiyeh.There were, however, reports earlier in the day that as many as 10 people had been killed in Lebanon by the other Israeli strikes. Dozens were also reported wounded in those strikes, and reportedly, Hezbollah had confirmed they’d lost eight members to the strikes. Hezbollah was accused of firing three rockets at Israel earlier in the day, though apparently to no effect, with one intercepted and the other two being allowed to land in open areas. There similarly were no reported casualties from the Haifa attack.Hezbollah was said to have presented the rocket attacks both as revenge for the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and as a “warning” for Israel to withdraw its military from Lebanese territory. Israel has had troops inside Lebanon since a November 2024 ceasefire was reached, and has refused to withdraw since then.These attacks mark the first time Hezbollah has retaliated against Israel in well over a year, as while Israel often accuses Hezbollah of violations of the ceasefire by their very existence, this is the first cross-border rocket fire from Hezbollah since the ceasefire went into effect.Israel, by contrast, has attacked Lebanon on a virtually daily basis in recent months, and indeed when strikes were reported earlier this weekend it wasn’t clear if they were strictly related to the ongoing Iran War or were just part of the persistent Israeli escalation ongoing anyhow.

Eleven Killed as Israel Pounds Christian-Majority Area of Beirut - At least 11 more people have been killed today as Israel continues its airstrikes against Lebanon, with substantial focuses of the strikes being residential areas and a hotel in the Christian-majority part of the capital city of Beirut. The Comfort Hotel, in between Hamzieh and Baabda, was directly across the street from the Sacre Coeur Hospital, and adjacent to the Chaldean Christian Cathedral of St. Raphael. While the IDFissued a generalized statement about the attacks targeting “Hezbollah infrastructure,” they did not explain why they attacked a hotel next to a hospital and a cathedral. Though Israel has been carrying out near daily attacks on Lebanon for months now, the rate and intensity of the attacks has dramatically escalated since the beginning of the new war on Iran last weekend. Israeli planes returning from bombing runs on Iran reportedly just stop off in Lebanon to hit targets there since they’re in the area anyway. In addition to the attacks on Beirut, Israel’s military has issued an evacuation order that covers effectively the entire area south of the Litani River in Lebanon, an order issued as Israeli ground troops entered the border of Khiam. The Litani River winds through southern and eastern Lebanon, going from the Bekaa Valley down into southern Lebanon and eventually emptying into the Mediterranean north of Tyre. An evacuation of everything south of that will encompass some 250,000 people and multiple towns and cities.Lebanese officials reported some 83,000 civilians displaced by the war already, and that number seems like it’s going to grow exponentially with the new evacuation order and the ground invasion that has accompanied it.UNIFIL peacekeepers reported multiple Israeli incursions into towns and villages along the border, and since the evacuation order covers effectively the entire border area that the UNIFIL was meant to patrol, many of their peacekeepers are now reportedly confined to base.

Evacuations Soar as Israel Launches New Ground Invasion of Lebanon - A growing number of civilians are flooding out of towns and villages in southern Lebanon over the past 48 hours. Some 30,000 civilians were displaced already Monday, and the number is expected to grow markedly as Israeli troops launched a new ground invasion of the country.Israel had ordered evacuations in several locations in Lebanon Monday before airstrikes, and Tuesday the evacuations expanded to another 80 towns and villages in the south, which appear to be the first targets of the new ground incursion. Evacuations of parts of the city of Tyre were also reported.While more are being displaced by the war, some are using the conflict as a reason to attempt to return home, with thousands of Syrians who had fled to Lebanon during Syria’s assorted warscrossing back into Syria since it’s not being actively invaded by Israel.
Throughout Monday and overnight, the attacks targeted the whole country, with multiple attacksreported against the capital city of Beirut. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported 52 killed on Monday, though they suggested it was only 40 in an update on Tuesday, with hundreds of others wounded.UNIFIL personnel confirmed that they’d seen small arms fire since the ground invasion began, but they do not appear to have been involved in the conflict directly, and so far Israel does not seem to be operating in the Bint Jbeil area, where UNIFIL Irish peacekeepers are positioned.Israel presented the invasion as targeting Hezbollah, as indeed they’ve presented their many attacks since the ceasefire of 2024 ended the last war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the troops were doing an “incredible job” in attacking Lebanon. Hezbollah, for their part, said they were ready for “open war.” Since the November 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah had not fired a single rocket at Israel until this weekend, and while they withdrew from the area south of the Litani River, Hezbollah is believed to retain substantial capabilities elsewhere in the country. The Lebanese government, however, has formally banned Hezbollah from resisting Israel militarily, though the intention appears to be to ignore the ban since the ground invasion began. Israel appears unwilling to accept a ban on just military resistance at any rate, reportedly demanding that Lebanon also ban Hezbollah from existing as a political party with the threat Israel will attack the Beirut airport if they refuse.

Ordering Civilians Out of Beirut Suburbs, Israeli Minister Vows Area Will Look Like Gaza City of Khan Younis - Israel continues to escalate the attack on Lebanon today, with the first strikes against the country’s north being reported, and additional strikes against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, which came with new rounds of evacuation orders.The Israeli military ordered tens of thousands of civilians out of Dahiyeh, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issued a video talking up the planned strikes against the suburb, vowing to turn Dahiyeh into Khan Younis, a city in the Gaza Strip which the Israeli military has more or less totally destroyed.The displaced from Dahiyeh are only a fraction of the number of people Israel is chasing out of their homes nationwide, with the current estimate of the displaced being in excess of 300,000 and rising all the time. Just two days ago, the evacuation orders effectively covered the entire south of the country, and with attacks growing in the north, the east, and around the capital city, it’s not clear where in Lebanon would not be subject to an Israeli strike at any given time.Targeting Dahiyeh is seen as symbolic among Israelis because the suburb is historically seen as a “Hezbollah stronghold” and has a substantial Shi’ite population. At the same time, Israel attacked a hotel in a Christian-majority suburb as well, so the escalation is going far beyond a specific focus on just Hezbollah, or even only Lebanon’s Shi’ite population.Israel launched the new war on Lebanon over the weekend, and the Lebanese Health Ministry reported today that, since Monday morning, Israeli strikes had killed 102 people and wounded some 638 others. The indications from Smotrich are that this is only the beginning.Of course, “new war” is something of a misnomer, because Israel was attacking Lebanon on a virtually daily basis during the state of ceasefire at any rate, and while this is a substantial further escalation, there is a case to be made that this is the same war, launched in 2024, that never really ended.With evacuation orders covering more and more of Lebanon, Human Rights Watch issued a statement warning that issuing such orders across broad swathes of the country “raises serious legal and humanitarian red flags” and may amount to a violation of the laws of war.

At Least 22 Killed in Pakistan During Protests Against US-Israeli Attacks on Iran - At least 22 people were killed in Pakistan on Sunday as Shia Muslims in the country held demonstrations against the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the war is causing turmoil across the region.According to Reuters, security personnel at the US consulate in Karachikilled 10 people who breached the outerwall of the US diplomatic facility.The New York Times reported that two more protesters were killed near the US embassy in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, and another 10 people died in the northern Gilgit-Baltistan region. Protests against the US attacks in Iran are also taking place in Baghdad, where Shia demonstrators have attempted to enter the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located. “Their attempts had been thwarted so far, but they keep trying,” a security source told AFP. Pakistan shares a more than 560-mile border with Iran, and about 15% of the country’s population is Shia Muslim. The US and Israeli attacks on Iran came as Pakistani and Afghan forces have been exchanging strikes and clashing along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, known as the Durand Line. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said in a statement on Sunday that he expressed “profound sorrow over the martyrdom” of Khamenei and sent condolences to the Iranian people. “Pakistan stands with the Iranian nation in this moment of grief and shares in their loss,” he said.

Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Boat Blew Up Shadow LNG Tanker In Mediterranean- Times of Malta reports that the Russian-flagged LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, identified as part of Russia's shadow fleet, suffered an explosion while transiting the Mediterranean Sea between Malta and Libya. Multiple sources told the local newspaper that Arctic Metagaz experienced a "series of explosions" and that it "was a case of deflagration; indications are that there was a huge explosion on board." В Средиземном море горит российский газовоз Arctic Metagaz https://t.co/TuVXeiWxG9 pic.twitter.com/bvjka1EL7jThe outlet cited the UK-based global security risk firm EOS Risk Group, which said the explosion is due to a "drone attack."In a separate report, Reuters also says the LNG tanker may have been hit by a drone, with Ukraine suspected of carrying out the operation.Reuters recently reported that three crude oil tankers have been damaged by blasts in the Mediterranean area, with the cause unknown.At least ten tankers have reportedly been hit by IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran's semi-official Mehr News. At the same time, the battlefield appears to be widening beyond the Gulf region. A Russian-flagged LNG tanker, Arctic Metagaz, carrying fuel from Russia's blacklisted Arctic LNG 2 project, was reportedly hit by Ukrainian drone boats in the Mediterranean.According to Bloomberg, "The tanker was likely en route to China, which has been the sole buyer of gas from sanctioned Russian export projects, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel was carrying cargo that originated from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which the U.S. sanctioned in 2023."Russia's Transport Ministry stated in a post on Telegram that the attack on the LNG tanker was "carried out from the Libyan coast by Ukrainian unmanned boats."Aerial footage circulating on X shows the severely damaged Arctic Metagaz.