gasoline inventories at an eleven year low; natural gas price hits eight month high; record oil production from US wells

natural gas price hits eight month high on record LNG demand;  new record for oil production from US wells, US gasoline inventories an eleven year low; biggest increase in commercial crude oil inventories in four months

US oil prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian Black Sea port shut off 2% of global oil supplies.…after falling 2.0% to $59.75 a barrel last week on a strong​er US dollar, the largest US oil inventory build in over 3 months, and on slowing factory activity in the US and Asia, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery ​r​ose in early Asian trading on Monday, as market sentiment improved after the US Senate passed a funding agreement that could end the US government shutdown, but traded mostly sideways during the US session​, as the market weighed the expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would soon come to an end against the continuing concerns about an oversupply in the market, and settled 38 cents higher at $60.18 a barrel​, as analysts focused on potential fuel supply disruptions from fresh U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, even as predictions of a crude supply surplus kept gains in check….oil prices declined in Asian trading on Tuesday, as concerns over excess supply outweighed uncertainty about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, but continued to trend higher in New York as optimism that the U.S. government shutdown would end this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding increased demand expectations, and settled 91 cents higher at $61.04 a barrel on the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown….oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday, as traders weighed the risk of oversupply against renewed strategic demand from China, then tumbled more than $2 on international markets as OPEC's latest report predicted that global oil supplies would be in line with demand in 2026, a significant departure from ​their previous forecasts of a supply shortage, and sold off sharply in New York, also pressured by OPEC’s monthly report​, and settled $2.55 cents or 4.2% lower at $58.49 a barrel after OPEC said that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group's production increase…oil prices slipped further on global markets on Thursday, continuing losses from the previous session, as reports of rising crude inventories in the United States heightened concerns that global supply is outpacing current fuel demand, but bounced modestly off the prior day’s ugly drop in early US trading after the Trump administration moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine with further sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and settled 20 cents higher at at $58.49 a barrel, as traders weighed concerns about global oversupply with looming sanctions against Russia's Lukoil….oil prices jumped nearly 3% in early Asian trading on Friday morning after a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, triggering renewed fears of supply disruptions, and continued to trade 2% lower after the port of Novorossiysk suspended it’s oil exports - about 2.2 million barrels per day, or equivalent to 2% of global supply - and settled $1.40 higher at $60.09 a barrel after Ukraine said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility nearby overnight, which left oil prices 0.6% higher for the week…

Meanwhile, natural gas prices rose for a fourth straight week on ​greater LNG demand and colder than normal forecasts for early December… after rising 4.6% to $4.315 per mmBTU last week on record LNG demand and colder than normal forecasts for the 3rd and 4th week out, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for December delivery opened 16.5 cents higher on Monday, as a turn from warm to cold weather jolted futures and revived a market fueled by rising demand, but retreated to modest gains as technical and fundamental indicators offered mixed signals, and settled 2.3 cents higher at $4.338 per mmBTU, as record exports and an early season pulse of heating demand lifted Lower 48 gas consumption, even as traders eyed milder temperatures ahead….natural gas prices opened 3.5 cents higher on Tuesday and surged ​upward ​through the morning, as LNG demand persisted and weather forecasts remained supportive, and settled 22.7 cents or 5.2% higher at $4.565 per mmBTU, as traders bet on another round of cold weather in December and firmer power demand, even as temperatures were expected to moderate next week….December natural gas opened 4.7 cents higher on Wednesday and rose to an intraday high of $4.579 by 10:25 AM, but then pulled back to trade along either side of $4.515 by midday, weighed down by near-term mild forecasts, in spite of a possible frigid start to December, and settled 3.2 cents lower at $4.533 per mmBTU as traders weighed Tuesday's gains against the return of mild weather after this week’s freeze…natural gas prices opened 1.7 cents higher on Thursday and rallied on speculative trading to achieve a twenty-two-month intraday high of $4.688 at 1:55 PM, despite conflicting weather forecasts, and settled 11.3 cents higher at an eight month high of $4.646 per mmBTU, supported by stronger LNG exports and forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in December….natural gas futures struggled to find their footing early Friday after the EIA reported an injection of 45 billion cubic feet natural gas into storage, exceeding expectations and exceeding the five-year average build of 35 billion cubic feet, then moved lower through midday after the bearish storage report and mild forecasts signaled weak demand and the potential for additional storage builds ahead of the start of the usual withdrawal season, and settled 8.0 cents lower at $4.556 per mmBTU​, amid overbought conditions that were compounded by a seasonally ​large storage increase​, but still finished 5.6% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending November 7th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 45 cubic feet to 3,960 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 6 billion cubic feet, or 0.2% lower than the 3,966 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on November 7th of last year, but 172 billion cubic feet, or 4.5% more than the five-year average of 3,788 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 7th of November over the most recent five years….the 45 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 34 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, but matched the 45 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, while it was more than the average 35 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the last week of October over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 7th indicated that after a major drop in our oil exports and a sizable increase in what was already record production from US wells, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 22nd time in forty weeks, and for the 39th time in seventy weeks, in spite of a large increase in oil refinery throughput….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 703,000 barrels per day to 5,222,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 873,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,551,000 barrels per day to average 2,816,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,406,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending November 7th, an average of 848,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 13,000 barrels per day lower at 456,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 211,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at a record 13,862,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,724,000 barrels per day during the November 7th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,973,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 7th, an average of 717,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 1,030,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending November 7th averaged a rounded 279,000 fewer barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for th​e​ difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+279,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.…moreover, since 393,000 barrels per day of our oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 114,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are also off by that much.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 1,030,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 916,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 114,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,529,000 barrels per day last week, which was 12.1% less than the 6,289,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 211,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,644,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 209,000 barrels per day higher at 13,424,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 2,000 barrels per day higher at 438,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported ​record oil production figure was 5.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 42.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 89.4% of their capacity while processing those 15,973,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 7th, up from the 86.0% utilization rate of a week earlier, with ​that increase in utilization largely due to an end to routine Fall refinery maintenance…. the 15,973,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 3.2% less than the 16,509,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending November 8th of 2024, but were 0.4% more than the 15,916,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 8th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.8%, which was a little below the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

With the increase in the numbers of barrels of oil that were refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 102,000 barrels per day to 9,933,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 7th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 241,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was ​still 3.3% less than the 10,267,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending November 8th of last year, and 2.4% less than the gasoline production of 10,173,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending November 8th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 309,000 barrels per day to 5,028,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 211,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those two hefty production increases, our distillates output was 1.9% more than the 4,969,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 8th of 2024, but 0.2% less than the 5,039,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 8th, 2019....

Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 6th consecutive week and for 15th time in seventeen weeks, decreasing by 945,000 barrels to an eleven year low of 205,064,000 barrels during the week ending November 7th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,729,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 154,000 barrels per day to 9,028,000 barrels per day, in part because our exports of gasoline fell by 83,000 barrels per day to 1,005,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 548,000 barrels per day… Even after thirty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty weeks, our gasoline supplies were just 0.9% less than last November 8th’s gasoline inventories of 206,873,000 barrels, and about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with this week’s sizable increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 25th time in 44 weeks, decreasing by 637,000 barrels to 110,909,000 barrels during the week ending November 7th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 643,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased again this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 308,000 barrels to 4,018,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 73,000 barrels per day to 1,268,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 63,000 barrels per day to 167,000 barrels per day... With 55 withdrawals from inventories over the past 93 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.1% less than the 114,415,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 8th of 2024, and about 8% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the drop in our oil exports and the increase production from US wells, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, for the 28th time over the past year, and by the most since July, increasing by 6,413,000 barrels over the week, from 421,168,000 barrels on October 31st to 427,581,000 barrels on November 7th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 5,202,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still 4% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 24% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first week of November over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this November 7th were 0.5% less than the 429,747,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 8th of 2024, and were 3.0% below the 440,755,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 10th of 2023, and 3.6% less than the 436,830,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 4th of 2022…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by one over the week ending November 14th, the ninth increase in thirteen weeks, as the number of rigs targeting oil rose by three, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was down by three, and miscellaneous rigs were up by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 14th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (November 7th) and this week’s (November 14th) count, the third column shows last week’s November 7th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 15th of November, 2024…

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Ohio Bill Updating Law Governing O&G Wells Gets Pushback -- Marcellus Drilling News - One month ago, we reported that Ohio Republican Senators had introduced Senate Bill (SB) 219, the first significant update to Ohio’s oil and gas laws since the Kasich administration more than a decade ago (see Ohio Bill Makes Major Changes to Law Governing O&G Wells). SB 219, introduced by Sen. Al Landis, aims to reform Ohio’s orphaned oil and gas well program. The bill proposes establishing the Oil and Gas Resolution and Remediation Fund, funded by filing fees and penalties, to protect orphan well funds from being raided by the state legislature (as often happens now). The bill also streamlines notification procedures for abandoned wells, accelerates drilling by eliminating the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ (ODNR) discretion to deny expedited project reviews, and makes road-use agreements with local governments voluntary and capped at three years. It won’t surprise you that anti-fossil fuel nutters are pushing back. It may surprise you that some county leaders and landowners are also pushing back.

Antis Sue ODNR for Approving 2 Injection Wells Near Marietta, OH - Since August, we’ve reported about an ongoing war of words between the City of Marietta officials (mostly Republicans) and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) over a permit for a fifth wastewater injection well located close to the city (see Marietta, OH Officials Ask ODNR to Deny Permit for Injection Well). In September, the ODNR rejected Marietta’s appeal and went ahead and issued a permit for the well (see ODNR Rejects Marietta Hearing Request, Issues Injection Well Permit). Not happy with the outcome, in October, the Marietta City Council passed three resolutions to block new injection wells in the area (see Marietta, OH, Passes 3 Resolutions Against Injection Wells). And now, a state environmental group, the Buckeye Environmental Network, backed by lawyers from the controversial Earthjustice, has sued the ODNR over permitting the new well and one other injection well in the Marietta area.

Vallourec announces multi-million dollar investment in a new premium threading line in Youngstown, Ohio -- Vallourec, a world leader in premium tubular solutions, announced today a US$48 million investment to expand its operations in Youngstown, Ohio. The investment will support the creation of a new Premium Threading Line within Vallourec’s existing steel making, rolling and finishing operations. This addition will offer a competitive, fully integrated domestic manufacturing route and strengthen Vallourec’s position in the Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) market in the US. This new line will increase capacity to thread VAM® high-torque connections, which are increasingly used in onshore wells with long laterals. This development marks a major milestone in Vallourec’s ongoing commitment to US manufacturing excellence and energy innovation. Construction began in July 2025 and is expected to be completed by early 2027, with no disruption to current operations. Once operational, this new line will create 40 full-time-equivalent positions, expand the local supply chain, and support the regional energy industry, further reinforcing Ohio’s industrial ecosystem. Vallourec North America is a fully integrated supplier of 100% Made in America seamless tubes. The company delivers best-in-class tubular solutions capable of withstanding the most extreme environments across the energy and industrial sectors. At the core of Vallourec’s US operations lies a strong circular economy approach: its seamless tubes are manufactured entirely from recycled scrap metal. Vallourec’s North American headquarters are located in Houston, Texas, and its main production facility is based in Youngstown, Ohio. With nearly 2000 employees in North America, the United States represents Vallourec’s largest market globally.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results, Updates 2025 Guidance and Announces $75 Million Share Repurchase Program - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its third quarter 2025 financial and operating results and updated 2025 guidance. Additionally, Infinity's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $75 million. Third Quarter 2025 & Recent Highlights:

• Delivered 39% growth in total net daily production to 36.0 MBoe/d in the third quarter 2025 compared to the third quarter 2024
  • Increased natural gas production 70% compared to third quarter 2024 with an additional three-well natural gas pad expected to be turned in line in the fourth quarter 2025
• Reported net income of $40.0 million
• Delivered Adjusted EBITDAX⁽¹⁾ of $60.0 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin⁽¹⁾ of $18.12 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
• Placed ten wells into sales in the third quarter totaling approximately 162,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) six oil-weighted wells in the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) four natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
• Acquired approximately 3,000 net acres during the quarter, increasing working interest in our active development projects and enhancing future projects
• Generated $186.7 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025
• Development capital expenditures incurred of $83.2 million, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
• Total net debt was approximately $70.8 million as of September 30, 2025
• Increased the borrowing base under its revolving credit facility to $375 million on October 1, 2025
• Total liquidity was $304.3 million as of October 1, 2025

Infinity Natural Resources targets 33.5–35 MBoe per day for 2025 while launching $75M share repurchase program -Earnings Call Insights: Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR) Q3 2025 Management View

• CEO Zack Arnold highlighted "exceptional results that demonstrate our continued momentum across the Appalachian Basin," with 39% total production growth year-over-year to 36.0 MBoe per day for the quarter and 70% growth in natural gas production compared to Q3 2024. He noted a single day net production record of 47.9 MBoe per day in October.
• Arnold reported the company placed 10 wells into sales during the quarter, split between 6 oil-weighted wells in Ohio Utica and 4 natural gas wells in Pennsylvania Marcellus. He added the team "drilled 93,000 lateral feet and completed 442 stages across 6 wells during the quarter" and set a new company record by exceeding 16 completion stages in 24 hours on a Guernsey County project.
• Strategic initiatives included acquiring 3,000 net acres across 350 transactions, increasing working interest in active projects. Arnold described these additions as "among the highest returning dollars we invest."
• Production guidance for full year 2025 was raised to 33.5 to 35 MBoe per day from the previous 32 to 35 MBoe per day range. Development capital expenditure guidance was updated to $270 to $292 million.
• CFO David Sproule stated, "we delivered a 39% increase in net production to 36 MBoe per day year-over-year... natural gas production increased 70% year-over-year to 138 MMcf per day for Q3 2025."
• Sproule added, "we also continue to drive cash operating costs lower, the $6.09 per Boe from $9.42 per Boe in the prior year's quarter," and "generated adjusted EBITDA of $60 million during the quarter and an adjusted EBITDA margin of $18.12 per Boe."
• Sproule announced, "our Board of Directors has authorized a $75 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in our underlying long-term value for our business, the strength of our balance sheet, and the undervalued nature of our stock price relative to our performance."

Outlook

• Full-year 2025 net daily production guidance was raised to 33.5 to 35 MBoe per day, from 32 to 35 MBoe per day, citing strong well performance and operational successes.
• Full-year total development capital expenditure guidance was updated to a range of $270 to $292 million, compared to the previous combined D&C and midstream CapEx guidance of $249 to $292 million.
• Management signaled continued flexibility between oil and gas development, with a nearly 50-50 split expected for 2025.

EOG Utica Production “Stronger Than Expected” – Drilled Dry Gas Well - Marcellus Drilling News - EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in several other countries), issued its third quarter update last week. EOG closed on its purchase of Utica driller Encino Energy in August (see EOG Closes on $5.6B Purchase of Encino Assets in Ohio Utica). Over the past three months, EOG has worked to integrate the Encino assets into what the company calls one of its “foundational plays” — the Utica — with a combined 1.1 million leased acres. According to EOG Executive VP & COO, Jeffrey Leitzell, production volumes outperformed in 3Q25, “largely driven by stronger-than-expected base production performance in our Utica asset.”

EOG Completes $5.7B Purchase of Encino Acquisition Partners – Rigzone - EOG Resources Inc has consummated its takeover of Encino Acquisition Partners (EAP) from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Investment Board and Encino Energy for $5.7 billion subject to post-closing adjustments. "In the Utica, the integration of the Encino assets is proceeding exceptionally well, with continued incremental efficiency gains", EOG chair and chief executive Ezra Yacob said in the company's quarterly report. The transaction involved the purchase of CPP's 98 percent stake and Encino Energy's two percent stake in EAP, which the two formed 2017, CPP said May 30 announcing the deal. The acquisition grows EOG's Utica shale position by 675,000 net acres to 1.1 million net acres with over two billion net barrels of oil equivalent undeveloped resources, Houston, Texas-based EOG said in a separate statement May 30. "Pro forma production totals 275,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day creating a leading producer in the Utica shale play", EOG said then. "The acquisition expands EOG's core acreage in the volatile oil window, which averages 65 percent liquids production, by 235,000 net acres for a combined contiguous position of 485,000 net acres", EOG said at the time. "In the natural gas window, the acquisition adds 330,000 net acres along with existing natural gas production with firm transportation exposed to premium end markets. "In the northern acreage, where the company has delivered outstanding well results, EOG increases its existing average working interest by more than 20 percent".

Smart Sand Rides Higher Sales To Record Quarterly Revenue - Smart Sand raked in a record $92.8 million in revenue last quarter, up 24% from last year, thanks to surging sand sales in Canada and the Utica shale region. This jump in Smart Sand’s earnings shows just how strong demand is for fracking materials right now, paired with solid execution from the company. A mix of higher sales and better pricing lifted adjusted EBITDA to $13.6 million, while gross profit rose to $14.9 million. The firm posted $0.08 earnings per share, and handed $6.4 million back to shareholders so far this year through dividends and buybacks. A one-off $4.4 million gain from higher-than-expected sand sales also boosted profits. With full-year sales expected to hit between 5.1 and 5.4 million tons and steady free cash flow in the forecast, Smart Sand’s push into Canada and Utica is giving it clear momentum.Selling more sand to major energy regions like Canada and Utica is helping Smart Sand carve out a bigger role in North America’s proppant market – even as the sector evolves. The company’s measured approach, with $15 to $17 million in expected 2025 capital spending and a focus on returning surplus cash, could strike a chord with investors looking for both growth and steady payouts.Smart Sand’s standout results show how robust shale activity continues to prop up a whole network of industrial suppliers. As energy producers prioritize efficiency and output, businesses providing key inputs like sand are positioned to gain – with ripple effects likely to reach equipment, logistics, and infrastructure companies throughout the broader energy supply chain.

Appalachian Producers Reverse Shut-ins as Winter's Approach Lifts Natural Gas Prices - After months of price-driven well shut-ins that helped steady Appalachian markets, firming natural gas prices are drawing production back online ahead of winter — following a reactive strategy for managing basis risk that the region’s largest producer, EQT Corp., has embraced. East Region gas production remained steady through mid-2025 as Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt prices fluctuated between $1.50 and $3.50/MMBtu, ending the period with a sharp late-October rebound. At A Glance:
Tetco M-2 benchmark surges past $3
Analysts expect Appalachian supply rebound
Appalachia’s forward curve basis strengthens

Coterra NE Pa. Gas Well Gets Frisky, Sprays Mist During Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News - On October 22, Coterra Energy reported a well control incident during fracking the 12H well on the Lauer pad in Susquehanna County to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). A loss of control resulted in the high-pressure release of an unknown quantity of fracking and production fluids, along with natural gas, causing the fluid to “spray” on and off the well pad. Coterra, which was fracking five wells simultaneously, called in Cudd Well Control Services and did not regain control until 49 hours later on October 24, after installing a second bridge plug.

24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 3 – 9 - Marcellus Drilling News - You knew the number of new permits issued in the M-U would come back down to earth sooner or later. Last week it happened. After three consecutive weeks with numbers of 37, 39, and 37, the number of new permits issued fell to 24 last week. Still respectable, but not in the coveted 30s. Pennsylvania issued 16 new permits last week, up from 13 the prior week. Ohio issued 6 new permits, down from 8 the prior week. West Virginia was shut out, issuing no new permits last week, which was the main reason why the number fell precipitously. ANTERO RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BEECH RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EXPAND ENERGY |JKLM ENERGY | LYCOMING COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SABRE ENERGY | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

New York approves controversial gas pipeline -The state of New York has approved a contentious natural gas pipeline that is expected to bring fuel to New York City residents but is drawing fire from some Democrats. On Friday, New York’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) issued a permitallowing for the construction of the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline. This vessel would bring gas from Pennsylvania to Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. In a statement, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) cited the state’s energy needs and said it is taking an “all-of-the-above” approach. “As Governor, a top priority is making sure the lights and heat stay on for all New Yorkers as we face potential energy shortages downstate as soon as next summer,” Hochul said. “And while I have expressed an openness to natural gas, I have also been crystal clear that all proposed projects must be reviewed impartially by the required agencies to determine compliance with state and federal laws. I am comfortable that in approving the permits, including a water quality certification, for the NESE application, the DEC did just that,” she added. The decision comes after New York’s grid operator recently warned that the state could soon face reliability challenges.

Pipeline project breaks through in once-resistant Northeast - Shale gas producers have complained for years that New York’s resistance to pipelines amounts to an “energy blockade.” But on Friday, one project got through. The state’s environmental regulators gave their blessing, in the form of a water quality certification, to a New York city-area pipeline. New Jersey joined in, clearing hurdles for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, or NESE, that seemed insurmountable just a year ago. The decision follows President Donald Trump’s strong-arm tactics to force New York to accept new fossil fuel infrastructure. Trump has claimed that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul agreed to consider new gas pipelines in return for him lifting his administration’s unprecedented halt on an under-construction offshore wind project. Hochul, however, has denied there was a deal, casting her administration’s approval as pragmatism — “making sure the lights and heat stay on.” Still, Hochul said Friday that Trump’s hostility to renewable energy is part of the reason why New York needs an “all-of-the-above” approach that includes fossil fuels along with nuclear power. “We are facing a war against clean energy from Washington Republicans,” Hochul said in an emailed statement. “And while I have expressed an openness to natural gas, I have also been crystal clear that all proposed projects must be reviewed impartially by the required agencies to determine compliance with state and federal laws.” White House officials said the NESE project will create jobs, keep the lights on and keep New Yorkers warm, and they cast it as a hand extended across the country’s partisan divide. “As promised, President Trump is unleashing American energy dominance across the country — even in Blue states like New York — because he is a President for all Americans,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “President Trump is restoring our energy dominance by building beautiful pipelines.” Jim Welty, president of Marcellus Shale Coalition, said Friday’s progress on NESE is “an important step in beginning to lift the energy blockade” that he said hurt consumers. But “more must be done to build additional pipelines that connect the energy-hungry regions with Pennsylvania’s natural gas abundance,” said Welty, whose group represents shale gas producers in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Friday’s double approval by New York and New Jersey is a huge step forward for NESE. But it doesn’t guarantee the project’s completion — nor necessarily serve as a harbinger of more Northeast fossil fuel projects. The Natural Resources Defense Council, along with other groups, is already challenging federal moves supporting the project and said Friday it will be also challenging state approval in federal court. And Williams Cos., the developer behind NESE, has withdrawn its water permit application for a second Northeast pipeline project, the 124-mile Constitution pipeline. The company plans to follow up with additional filings. But NESE’s progress is a sign that Democratic governors in the Northeast might reduce their resistance to new natural gas infrastructure in the face of rising energy costs. In her statement, Hochul stressed “affordability,” the buzzword Democrats repeated as they rode to victory in last week’s elections in New Jersey and elsewhere. Williams released a statement from company CEO Chad Zamarin that emphasized the point. “There is increasing recognition that energy affordability directly impacts everyday affordability,” said Zamarin. “Expanding natural gas infrastructure is vital to lowering costs and increasing economic opportunity, and the NESE and Constitution projects are important to connecting energy to opportunity in the Northeast.” NESE would add a 24-mile pipeline running underwater from New Jersey into New York. It would be added to Williams’ 10,000-mile Transcontinental system that connects the New York metro area to Gulf states. New Jersey would host three miles of onshore pipe. Williams has said it hopes to put NESE into operation by the end of 2027.

NY’s Jan. 1 Ban on New Gas Hookups Delayed by Lawsuit - Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2023, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a leftist Democrat, floated a plan to ban natural gas hookups in every single new home and business across the “Empire” State (see NY Gov. Hochul Loses Her Mind – Wants to Ban Gas in New Buildings). She even wanted to ban gas in existing homes, but that was too much to stomach even for NY’s leftwing Democrats (see New York Legislators Block Hochul NatGas Ban for Existing Homes). As part of the 2023-2024 budget deal, Hochul got her statewide ban on new hookups (see NY State has Fallen – Gas Stoves & Peaker Plants Banned in Budget). So, beginning Jan. 1, 2026, new homes (or businesses) in New York State will not be allowed to connect to an existing natural gas pipeline system. Except Hochul is now backpeddling, using a lawsuit as an excuse to delay implementing the new law.

Massachusetts considers expanding effort to ban gas in new buildings - Massachusetts lawmakers may double the number of cities and towns allowed to ban fossil fuels in new construction. A bill under consideration would add up to 10 communities to an ongoing pilot program that proponents say is already reducing emissions, making homes healthier, and lowering energy bills — all without stifling the development of new housing.Cities including Salem and Somerville are lining up to participate in an expanded program, and some local leaders in Worcester are eager to take part, too. Boston, the state’s largest city, has previously expressed interest in joining.“We’re a coastal community that’s going to bear the brunt of climate change,” said state Rep. Manny Cruz, a Democrat representing Salem. “We want to make sure we’re doing our part to mitigate the damage.”As Massachusetts strives to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, it has prioritized policies that encourage the transition away from fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. In 2022, as part of a wide-ranging climate law, the state created a pilot authorizing 10 municipalities to prohibit fossil-fuel hookups in new construction and major renovations. In 2023, it introduced an optional building code aimed at reducing energy consumption and preparing for an all-electric future, and later that same year, regulators issued guidelines for natural-gas utilities to evolve toward clean energy.Massachusetts joins other states and cities pursuing such policies. New York this summer became the first state to commit to an all-electric building standard, though Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is now under pressure to delay the implementation of these rules. Dozens of local governments nationwide have measures on the books barring gas use in new buildings and renovations, and some have policies to ratchet down fossil-fuel appliances in existing structures over time, too. Advocates hope Massachusetts’ pilot paves the way for the legislature to allow all 351 of the state’s cities and towns to choose their own path on fossil-fuel restrictions. The bill still faces committee votes in both the House and Senate. Single-issue bills like this one are rarely approved by the full legislature, but are instead wrapped into a larger package, said state Sen. Michael Barrett, a Democrat and chair of the legislature’s telecommunications, utilities, and energy committee, which heard testimony on the bill late last month.

Ontario Gas Power Burn at Records on Nuke Outages -Natural gas consumption for power generation (“power burn”) in Canada’s most populous province of Ontario has recorded record seasonal highs since mid-September (green dashed rectangle in chart below) and not far below summer peaks when power load is at its highest because of air conditioning loads. As discussed in RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard, September, October and November-to-date average power burn have set records for each respective month with expectations of elevated burn to at least the end of the year. The latest surge in power burn occurred when the Darlington #1 reactor (878 MW) went offline from October 18 to November 8 (joining downtime for Pickering #6 which went down on September 18) reducing total nuclear generation by approximately 10% (black dashed rectangle in chart below). The unit’s full return to service on November 9 has only marginally reduced gas power burn as other seasonal factors (cooler weather and shorter daylight hours) have come to bear on the Ontario power market. In addition, at least three nuclear reactors are currently offline for refurbishment with staggered restarts currently scheduled between mid-2026 and late 2027. Moreover, current plans call for an additional five nuclear units to enter refurbishment at the end of September 2026. This combination of ongoing and planned outages is likely to result in sustained high levels of gas power burn for the remainder of 2025 and for the balance of 2026 after allowing for seasonal swings.

WV’s First-Ever Gas-Fired Power Plant to Begin Construction - How many times over the years have we reported on (and cheerleaded for) gas-fired power plants to get built in West Virginia? MANY times. Dozens, maybe hundreds of posts about this topic. Yet, in all the time we’ve been writing MDN (since January 2009), not a single, solitary gas-fired power plant has been built in the Mountain State. Not one new plant! Until now. Energy investment firm Blackstone announced yesterday it has made a final investment decision (FID) to move forward with building the $1.2 billion Wolf Summit Energy Center power plant in Harrison County, WV.

N.C. Does a 180-Turn, Issues Water Permit for MVP Southgate - We continue to win so much, it feels strange. But hey, we can get used to it! Back in April 2021, we reported that the leftist Democrats who run the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (NCDEQ) had, for the third time, rejected giving the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project a necessary Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 401 water quality certification permit (see NC DEQ Rejects Permit for MVP Southgate Pipe Third Time). The project went dormant after that, until the mainline MVP itself was built. After all, if there’s no MVP, there’s no need to build the Southgate extension. MVP finally finished building and went online in June 2024 (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). And now, the unthinkable (for the left) has happened: The NCDEQ issued a Section 401 permit to MVP Southgate, a 31-mile extension of MVP into North Carolina.

Crypto Co. Eyes Drilling Conventional Gas Well in NC Triassic Basin - Deep River Data, a company with connections to the cryptocurrency industry, wants to drill for natural gas in Lee County, North Carolina. However, production from the well would not be used to power crypto mining, but instead to fuel an AI data center. If approved, the project would be the first commercial well drilled into the Triassic Basin, a natural gas repository underlying North Carolina and other Eastern Seaboard states. The well that is planned is conventional, not shale, so it involves no (or very little) fracking.

U.S. Propane Inventories Stay Elevated with Gulf Coast Stocks Pushing Higher - The EIA reported a 691 Mbbl withdrawal in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended November 7 — a larger draw than industry expectations for a 48 Mbbl pull but smaller than the typical seasonal draw of 921 Mbbl. Total stocks stood at 105.4 MMbbl, 7% above both the same week in 2024 and the 5-year maximum, and 16% above the 5-year average. Overall, inventories remain firmly on the high side of historical norms. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) propane inventories increased by 148 Mbbl, pushing regional stocks to 63.3 MMbbl — the third consecutive week of record highs since our recordkeeping began in 2011. Inventories were 7.2 MMbbl, or 13%, above both 2024 levels and the 5-year maximum. It’s an unusually comfortable starting point as the heating season ramps up. Weekly propane exports reported by the EIA averaged about 1.9 MMb/d, a decrease of 35 Mb/d from the previous week. Export levels were above the four-week average of 1.86 MMb/d and also exceeded the 1.8 MMb/d reported during the same week last year. The continued strength in exports points to steady international demand heading into the winter season.

PHMSA Investigates Leaking Ethane from Cove Point LNG Tanks -- Marcellus Drilling News - - Federal safety officials are investigating leaks of ethane near two small underground storage tanks at the Cove Point LNG export terminal in Maryland and have requested that they be taken out of service immediately, citing potential safety concerns. The cause of the leak appears to be related to the tanks or their piping. However, Cove Point LNG, a facility owned and operated by a Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiary, maintains that the 40-gallon tanks are “safe to operate under the current conditions” and that the leaks have never posed an unsafe condition for employees or the community. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) issued a proposed safety order in mid-October, and the company has requested an informal consultation to discuss it.

U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries Shatter Record, Push Global Natural Gas Prices Lower — LNG Recap - U.S. feed gas deliveries to LNG export terminals hit yet another record over the weekend, continuing a relentless charge higher that has added to global supplies and kept a lid on international natural gas prices. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing daily U.S. LNG export deliveries from Nov. 1–10, 2025, with volumes ranging between 16.95 and 18.86 million Dth. The chart highlights top U.S. LNG terminals including Corpus Christi, Freeport, Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, Plaquemines, Sabine Pass, Elba Island, and Cove Point, alongside inactive listings for LNG Canada and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul. Total U.S. LNG export deliveries on Nov. 10 reached 18.53 million Dth, down 92,703 Dth from the previous day. Map inset marks key LNG sites across the Gulf Coast and East Coast. At A Glance:
U.S. feed gas deliveries hit 18.2 Bcf/d
35 domestic cargoes loaded last week
More deals signed to sell U.S. LNG

U.S. LNG Feed Gas Hits Record as Winter Demand Tightens Supply — The Offtake - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 18.2 Bcf/d: Flows of LNG feed gas demand to U.S. terminals has reached new highs in November as commissioning projects and winter demand swell exports. Feed gas nominations reached 18.2 Bcf/d on Nov. 12, according to NGI calculations. Feed gas demand has averaged around 17.5 Bcf/d since the beginning of November as the final block of trains at Venture Global Inc.’s Plaquemines LNG continue commissioning.
• 2 Mt/y: Shell plc has asked the New York Supreme Court to overturn a decision by an international tribunal in its arbitration case against Venture Global. In August, a tribunal panel sided in favor of the developer of the Calcause Pass LNG terminal, concluding the company abided by the terms of the 20-year, 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) agreement with Shell. However, a similar panel decided in favor of BP plc in October. In a court filing, Shell lawyers claimed that Venture Global withheld information to the tribunal that influenced the decision.
• $11.6 billion: Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE) plans to end a legacy contract to export 2.9 Mt/y of Russian LNG by 2027. The contract to take cargoes from Yamal LNG, valued at around $11.6 billion, was originally planned to end in 2040. In October, European Union member countries approved a measure to accelerate the bloc’s ban on Russian LNG to the beginning of 2027.
• 18 Mt/y: A holding company of the Haisla Nation has applied to take over the permits of an abandoned Canadian export project. The Kitimat LNG originally proposed by Chevron Corp. and Woodside Energy Group was previously designed with a nameplate capacity of up to 18 Mt/y from three trains before both companies walked away in 2021. The Haisla Nation currently holds a 50.1% stake in the Cedar LNG project currently under construction in British Columbia. '

US LNG producers ink near record contract volumes, even as fees climb (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas developers are on track this year to ink the second-highest annual number of binding sales contracts, despite industry concerns about increasing capacity and rising costs. In the first 10 months of 2025, U.S. LNG producers signed sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) for 29.5 million metric tonnes of LNG per year, more than four times the 7 mtpa signed in all of 2024, data from consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group shows.. The SPAs are used by project developers to raise financing by demonstrating that planned projects can generate positive cash flow with customers locked into contracts for as long as 20 years. The only time more binding agreements were signed by U.S. exporters was in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to Rapidan Energy. Many buyers seeking to diversify away from Russian energy are willing to pay higher liquefaction fees that American LNG developers charge to convert natural gas into a liquid that can be easily transported around the world in specialized ships. Companies with LNG trading portfolios are also picking up volumes from American producers. President Donald Trump returned to office in January with a pro-oil and gas agenda. He has promoted LNG deals in trade talks with Europe, which agreed to buy $750 billion in energy from the U.S. His administration also lifted former President Joe Biden's moratorium on new export project approvals. A flurry of final investment decisions followed that will add new capacity totaling 61.5 mtpa of LNG to an existing export base of 120 million mtpa. Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Sempra, Next Decade and Woodside Energy have all greenlit new facilities this year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the country's overall LNG capacity to double by 2029. America could export one third of global LNG by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. Rapid expansion of U.S. LNG could result in a global glut, with the IEA predicting lower prices. “As new supply comes to market, notably from the United States and Qatar, it should apply downward pressure on prices - offering welcome relief for gas importers worldwide,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. Similar forecasts of lower LNG prices have come from producers including Total and Shell, yet some investors in new export facilities like Woodside and Venture Global say predictions of a glut are overstated. "We're very bullish on LNG demand for the long term," Woodside CEO Meg O'Neill said at an event in September. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel predicts demand growth as data centers and more Asian countries replace coal with LNG for electricity generation. "I think data centers are going to be a massive source of new incremental demand, but you are short today on gas production capacity," Sabel told Reuters. Labor inflation caused by shortages of skilled workers and rising prices of equipment due to tariffs are increasing construction costs, according to Poten and Partners business intelligence head Jason Feer. "Costs have increased up to 20% in some instances, and it makes some projects ... uncompetitive," TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said on an earnings call last month. Venture Global has reported cost overruns at its 27.2 mtpa Plaquemines LNG facility, while Golden Pass, a joint venture between Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy is over budget and behind schedule. To keep projects economically viable, developers have been seeking, and so far getting, liquefaction fees that are up around 15% on average from two years ago, Feer said. Venture Global, considered a low-cost supplier, is charging $2.30 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) for liquefaction in new contracts. The fee is higher than the $1.75 per mmBtu it charged for LNG out of Calcasieu Pass when that facility first contracted sales, two people with knowledge of its pricing told Reuters. Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG producer, is charging a premium of over $2.75 per mmBtu. Woodside is offering 10-year contracts coming in at around $2.90 per mmBtu, said Feer, adding that fees across the broader market had averaged $2 per mmBtu in 2023. The window may be closing for more LNG projects to be developed in the U.S. at this time because of rising costs and the prospect of lower global prices, according to Rapidan Energy director of global gas Alex Munton. "This bull run must come to an end, it cannot continue forever," said Munton. Still, buyers including ENI and Petronasare snapping up new long-term contracts even in the face of higher liquefaction fees and potentially lower spot prices. JERA, one of Japan’s largest power generators, says it wants U.S. gas to diversify and avoid an over-dependence on Australia and to meet demand growth spurred by data centers and AI. TotalEnergies' Pouyanné said many large players are focusing on the bigger picture and locking in new volumes to trade, even if fees are rising. As the market grows, so do trading and arbitrage opportunities. Even some easing of the market could still create opportunities for more price sensitive countries in Southeast Asia to move away from coal and boost global demand for LNG, the IEA said.

IEA Rethinks Role of Natural Gas as Wave of New LNG Supply Poised to Reshape Demand -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its flagship World Energy Outlook that oil and natural gas demand would continue to grow until 2050 in a reversal from last year’s report as global policies and economies shift. Stacked column chart illustrating global LNG capacity under development from 2010 through 2035, segmented by contributions from the United States, Qatar, Australia, Canada and other countries, with 2025–2030 showing the largest growth. At A Glance:
Natural gas demand to grow 10–15%
Overall energy demand climbing
Geopolitical risks pose renewed supply threat

Can U.S. Energy’s New Direction Reshape Global Gas Flows? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to tune in to the latest episode NGI’s Hub & Flow, in which NGI’s managing editor of Mexico, Christopher Lenton, speaks with Alex Munton, global gas and LNG research lead at Rapidan Energy Group. The conversation looks at how the U.S. natural gas industry has welcomed a more favorable policy environment. At the same time, Munton suggests rising costs are weighing on activity, making for a more complex dynamic for natural gas even as LNG projects boom. The two also discuss LNG ambitions in Mexico and Alaska amid financing and logistical challenges, reinforcing why Gulf Coast terminals now dominate. As affordability and energy costs become political flashpoints, Munton warns that high prices could reshape the energy landscape — and voter sentiment.

Shell Challenges Venture Global Arbitration Loss in NY Court -- Marcellus Drilling News - Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (CP) LNG export facility in Louisiana began operations in March 2022 (see Calcasieu Pass LNG Loads Inaugural Cargo; Sabine Pass LNG Expands). Typically, a new LNG facility will load and ship several (maybe two or three) cargoes to “work out the kinks” and ensure everything is working as advertised. Venture Global, using loopholes in its signed contracts, maintained that they were working out the kinks long after it began shipping. After hundreds of cargoes were shipped, CP’s customers were still not receiving their contracted (at lower prices) shipments. Shell, along with several other customers, sued (see Shell, Edison, BP File for Arbitration Against Venture Global LNG). Shell lost its arbitration case, but two months later, BP won its arbitration case. Shell is now appealing the rejected case.

Energy Transfer seeks equity partners for Lake Charles facility - Energy Transfer seeks equity partners for Lake Charles facility Energy Transfer will not move ahead with a final investment decision (FID) for its Lake Charles LNG facility until at least 80% of the project has been sold to equity partners, the US pipeline operator stated in a post-earnings call Reuters reported on November 5. The Louisiana-based facility will possess a production capacity of 16.5mn tonnes per year (tpy). Moreover, the export terminal has secured long-term offtake deals for most of its supply. But amid rising project costs, the US midstream company is seeking further financial assurances before the greenlight can be given for the plant to be built in Cameron Parish. “Our projects need to meet certain risk-return criteria, and we're not there yet on LNG,” co-CEO Tom Long told reporters. “We are hoping that these equity partners will step up by the end of the year and get us to where we want this kind of risk profile, in the space we want this project,” Long added. Energy Transfer has secured MidOcean Energy, which is backed by investment firm EIG, as an equity partner. A non-binding contract was signed in April with MidOcean committing to cover 30% of the construction costs in return for 5mn tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG supply. Chevron has also signed an offtake deal, agreeing to purchase 2mn tpy, while Kyushu Electric Power has also committed to purchase 1mn tpy. Energy Transfer has been targeting to take FID by the end of the year, but with a lack of equity partners this timeline may need to be pushed back. Hesitancy by Energy Transfer over a lack of equity partners comes at a time when construction costs have been soaring for LNG facilities in North America. Inflationary pressures, particularly the rising wages of skilled labour in the Gulf Coast region have led to massive cost overruns for a number of LNG facilities, including ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass LNG, as well as Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility. Rising construction costs for LNG export terminals are not limited to the Gulf Coast. Woodfibre LNG, located in the western Canadian province of British Columbia has also grappled with soaring construction costs at the halfway mark of building.

Energy Transfer Taps the Brakes on Lake Charles LNG Export FID- Marcellus Drilling News - In April, we told you that Energy Transfer’s (ET) Lake Charles LNG project had landed a new partner to help pay for the project, MidOcean Energy, which will cover 30% of the cost of building the plant (see MidOcean Partners with Energy Transfer on Lake Charles LNG Exports). Not long after that news, ET filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to add an extra three years to the permit to complete the facility’s construction and bring it online. FERC responded in the affirmative in May (see FERC Grants Request to Extend Lake Charles LNG Construction by 3 Yrs). The Department of Energy (DOE) issued its blessing for the delayed timeline three months later, in August (see DOE Gives Lake Charles LNG Until December 2031 to Begin Exporting). However, ET is tapping the brakes on a final investment decision (FID) until 80% of the project has been sold to equity partners.

Energy Transfer Expands Permian Gas Network as Data Center Demand Surges -- Energy Transfer LP (ET) is continuing to build out Permian Basin processing capacity and storage as it locks in a bevy of supply agreements with data centers and utilities seeking reliable Texas natural gas. Map showing Energy Transfer’s Desert Southwest pipeline expansion, highlighting Transwestern Pipeline routes from the Permian Basin at Waha into Arizona near Phoenix, along with Energy Transfer interstate and intrastate pipeline networks across Texas, New Mexico and the broader Southwest.
At A Glance:
ET eyes 1 Bcf/d in data center supply
Management discloses deals with Oracle
Lake Charles FID hinges on equity sales

South Texas Dorado Positions EOG for Next LNG Wave- Multi-basin exploration and production (E&P) firm EOG Resources Inc. is bullish on natural gas based on the growing LNG pipeline, but management is maintaining discipline as it builds a plan for 2026, CEO Ezra Yacob said in a third quarter earnings call. Line chart comparing NGI forward natural gas price curves for Henry Hub, Waha, SoCal Border Avg., Houston Ship Channel, and Cove Point from late 2025 through 2027. Cove Point shows sharp seasonal spikes above $6.00/MMBtu, while Waha trends negative at times and other U.S. hubs remain near flat to slightly positive, highlighting regional spreads tied to future LNG export demand. At A Glance:
Natural gas output tops prior guidance
LNG, power demand boost EOG strategy
Utica acquisition expands gas footprint

Is the U.S. LNG Market Getting Too Crowded? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, in which NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, sits down with Poten & Partners’ Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence, to discuss how rapid North American LNG export growth could slow down projects still in the development phase. They explore whether potential project delays could slow an expected LNG supply glut later in the decade, as well as how long oversupply could affect the natural gas market. Cocklin and Feer also discuss implications of the supply glut on U.S. natural gas prices and on global benchmarks, and how foreign offtakers could react to shifting prices.In the wake of six U.S. LNG projects having reached final investment decisions in 2025, they also delve into the viability of financing additional projects.

US natgas futures extend rally to eight-month high on bets of fresh December cold, firm power demand - U.S. natural gas futures rose 5% on Tuesday, extending gains to an eight-month high, as traders bet on another round of cold weather in December and firmer power demand, even as temperatures are expected to moderate next week. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.7 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $4.565 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract climbed to its highest level since March. "The market is expecting another blast of cold in December, and that's keeping sentiment bullish despite the brief warm-up ahead," He added that expectations for stronger power demand in the coming weeks were also helping support prices. The recent rally has kept the front-month contract in technically overbought territory for a ninth straight session. Analysts said any prolonged moderation in temperatures could slow momentum, but traders are watching forecasts closely to see what comes after the current warm-up. "Besides the cold weather, a recent record pace of export activity has added to recent bullish sentiment. But we can also indicate a strong pace of production that has provided significant mitigation against the rising exports," In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a sixth session in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. Meanwhile, Shell has challenged its defeat in an arbitration case against U.S. liquefied natural gas producer Venture Global in the New York Supreme Court, a legal filing seen by Reuters shows, weeks after rival BP won a similar $1 billion-plus arbitration. Dutch and British power prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday morning as mild weather keeps heating demand subdued and amid strong supply from Norway and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months. Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 118.6 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd last week on colder weather, before easing to 114.7 bcfd as temperatures moderate. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. LSEG estimated 228 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, compared with 246 estimated on Monday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Poised to Ramp as Demand Mounts, EIA Says - Natural spot gas prices at benchmark Henry Hub could rally into the winter months and through 2026 amid strengthening domestic demand and steadily climbing calls for U.S. LNG exports, according to the latest federal outlook.U.S. natural gas prices remain relatively stable compared with sharp seasonal swings in residential rates, which are projected to rise again this winter, according to NGI and EIA data. At A Glance:
EIA sees Henry Hub at $3.90 in winter
Agency expects $4.00 average for 2026
Futures set new highs on frigid weather

US natgas scales highest level since March on stronger LNG exports, cold December outlook - U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest level since March on Thursday, supported by stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in December. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 11.3 cents, or 2.5%, higher at $4.646 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract hit its highest level since March 10 earlier in the session. "The LNG export market is acting as a strong demand driver," The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months as Venture Global's Plaquemines plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi plant in Texas continue to ramp up production, according to LSEG data. By December, according to some projections, it is going to get colder than normal. Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise to 119.2 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd the previous week. LSEG estimated 253 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 228 estimated on Tuesday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. Record output this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, ADNOC Gas reported an 8% rise in its third-quarter net profit to $1.34 billion on Thursday, its highest ever for the period, as strong domestic demand and improved margins offset a weaker oil price environment. Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices were slightly down on Thursday, trading in a narrow range amid weak demand due to warm weather, which is expected to become colder over the coming week.

Natural gas prices hit highest level since invasion of Ukraine - Wall Street Journal -- The onset of cold weather and record-breaking Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports have driven U.S. natural-gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This surge, with December futures hitting $4.646 per million British thermal units—up 67% from a year ago—benefits U.S. drillers who suffered from a supply glut last year. However, these higher costs threaten to increase heating bills for the roughly 61 million American homes warmed by natural gas, plus the many more powered by gas-generated electricity. The rise is largely attributed to a sustained, record pace of LNG export activity, primarily to European allies, which is more than offsetting the near-record domestic production pace, despite ample storage levels heading into the winter.

Analyst Warns NatGas Is 'Nearing Price-Inelastic Portion of Curve' | Rigzone - In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Wednesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned that natural gas is “nearing [the] price-inelastic portion of [the] curve”. “Yesterday’s session spanned a wide and volatile 30.5 cent intraday trading range en-route to a $4.565 December contract close - a four-month high,” Rubin said in the report. “This is near the bottom of the price-inelastic portion of the curve where price increases hold less sway over short-term supply or demand, opening the door to substantial further volatility and price increases,” he warned. Rubin stated in the report that today’s spot market action may prove pivotal as demand falls more than 13 billion cubic feet per day from Tuesday to Saturday. “If Henry Hub spot prices relent from Monday’s seven-month high at $3.79 (spot markets did not trade on Veteran’s Day), it may join with the Relative Strength Index nearing technically overbought conditions to yield consolidation,” he said. The EBW energy analyst went on to note in the report that the long-term outlook for natural gas “is structurally bullish”, adding that “early December could be cold”. “Near-term pullbacks have been shallower - and shorter - than record high production and market indifference to winter supply adequacy concerns suggest,” he said. “While short-term consolidation is likely, NYMEX winter contracts rest at the base of a hockey stick curve and could snap steeply higher at any point,” he continued. EBW’s latest report outlined that Tuesday’s December natural gas contract close of $4.565 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) was up 22.7 cents, or 5.2 percent, from Monday’s close. The report highlighted that EBW’s prediction for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price was “relent and restrengthen” over the next 7-10 days and a “jagged path higher” over the next 30-45 days. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the EBW team, Rubin warned that natural gas momentum showed “signs of softening”. “The December natural gas contract rose to test key resistance at $4.509 yesterday [Monday], only to return 24.7 cents before stabilizing in the low $4.30s/MMBtu,” Rubin said in that report. “Henry Hub spot prices reached $3.79 - but the end of the current cold spell implies relenting physical demand to refocus traders on a well-supplied November market,” he added. In that report, Rubin highlighted that “weather forecasts shed seven HDDs [heating degree days] for Weeks 2 and 3 in a moderating pattern for natural gas”. “Week 2 will be milder than Week 1, and even a modest injection cannot be ruled out. Collectively, mild weather, record production, storage above 3,925 Bcf, and softening technical momentum are likely to challenge recent upside,” he said. Rubin went on to state in the report, however, that “long-term fundamentals are robust, weekly average LNG set another record high, and elevated chances for a cold December may limit downside”. “Any signs of December cold creeping into the forecast could reignite bullish momentum - although current forecasts indicate cold is most likely after Thanksgiving,” he added. That EBW report highlighted that the December natural gas contract closed at $4.338 per MMBtu on Monday. That closing price was up 2.3 cents, or 0.5 percent, from Friday’s close, the report outlined. This EBW report also highlighted that EBW’s prediction for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price was “relent and restrengthen” over the next 7-10 days and a “jagged path higher” over the next 30-45 days.

LNG Prices Will Drop in 2026 to Absorb Supply Surge, But by How Much?: Russell - The liquefied natural gas market is bracing for a surge in supply next year, largely from top exporter the United States, but what is less certain is just how low spot prices will have to drop to clear the additional volumes. Global supply of the super-chilled fuel is expected to rise to 475 million metric tons in 2026, according to data from commodity analysts at Kpler, a 10.2% gain over the 431 million tons forecast for 2025. To put this figure in context, the expected increase in supply is equivalent to the total annual demand of South Korea, the world’s third-biggest LNG importer behind China and Japan. The bulk of the increase in LNG supply comes from the United States, with Kpler’s principal LNG analyst Go Katayama telling a seminar in Sydney on Thursday that U.S. capacity will rise to 130 million tons next year. This is up from 90 million tons in 2024 and an expected 110 million this year. Such a jump in supply is likely to weigh on prices, with Kpler forecasting that benchmark Asian spot prices will average $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, down from about $12 in 2025. That doesn’t seem overly bearish, but within an average price forecast for a calendar year there can be quite some movement on a week-by-week basis. For instance, it’s likely that demand during the upcoming northern winter will keep the spot price around its current $11.10 per mmBtu, with the risk that a colder-than-usual season will push the price higher. This means the spot price will start 2026 well above the $10 average forecast for the whole year, giving it scope to drop throughout the year. If all 44 million tons of forecast new LNG supply does eventuate and hit the market, much of it will come in the second half of 2026. This makes it likely that spot prices will be weaker in the second half as the market struggles to absorb additional supply. The question is who is likely to buy the new LNG, much of which is uncontracted and thus available for spot transactions. China’s weak LNG imports this year may well reverse amid stronger residential and trucking demand, with Kpler expecting imports to rise 8 million tons to 75 million in 2026. Other potential bright spots for LNG demand are India and Southeast Asian nations such as Thailand and the Philippines. However, these countries can largely be described as price-sensitive buyers, and it would likely take a drop to below $8 per mmBtu to drive them to take significant volumes. Europe’s LNG demand may also increase as the continent continues to walk away from Russian pipeline natural gas, but growth may be more modest as renewables increase their share of the region’s energy mix. Whether the new volume of LNG hitting the market in 2026 will be enough to drive the spot price as low as $8 is debatable, but a further wave of supply in 2027 could be enough to rout prices. Qatar, which vies with Australia as the second-biggest LNG producer, is advancing work to boost its output from 77 million tons to 126 million by 2027. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said last week the Middle East producer is on track to start up new production from its massive North Field by the middle of next year, with the fourth quarter being the latest it would commence. The LNG market is heading for a situation where supply additions are running ahead of demand growth. This is leading to a market consensus that spot prices are likely to drop on a sustained basis, which will help boost demand in Asia. But for any lift in demand to be sustained, prices will have to remain depressed, a situation that is likely to curb future investment in new LNG capacity.

Chevron sees oil prices under ‘more pressure’ than LNG next year - Chevron CEO Mike Wirth predicts that increased oil supply from OPEC+ nations will continue to pressure crude prices next year, making 2026 prices likely to feel more pressure than LNG. Following its correct prediction of this year’s oil price drop, Chevron unveiled a five-year plan prioritizing profitability over production growth through 2030, aiming for 14% annual free cash flow growth with $70/barrel crude. While Chevron expects strong global demand for liquefied natural gas, Wirth anticipates lower LNG spot prices at the end of the 2020s due to a supply surge from the Gulf Coast and Middle East, potentially exceeding demand.

USA shale operators defy $60 oil to keep increasing output -- US shale producers, including Exxon Mobil, Diamondback Energy, and Coterra Energy, are moving forward with plans to increase output, despite oil prices near the $60 mark, setting the stage for a record global supply glut next year. This resilience stems from years of technological advancements in drilling and pumping, which have significantly enhanced efficiency and lowered break-even costs for producers, such as Diamondback’s dropping to about $37 a barrel. Exxon is leading the charge with a major increase in its 2025 production guidance, driven by new fracking techniques. Analysts suggest that given current incentives, oil prices will likely need to fall into the low $50-a-barrel range before the market forces US producers to curb their continued growth.

Occidental Petroleum Cuts 2026 Spending As Oil Prices Weigh On US Producers - Occidental Petroleum plans to reduce its capital spending for 2026 while concentrating on its largest U.S. oilfields, aiming to maintain steady production despite ongoing pressure from lower global oil prices. The move underscores the company’s focus on financial discipline and operational efficiency. The company will trim its 2026 capital expenditure to a range of $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, down from $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion in 2025. Most of the funding will go toward U.S. onshore projects, particularly in the Permian Basin, which allows Occidental flexibility if market conditions deteriorate further. Spending in the Gulf of Mexico and Oman will rise by $250 million, while investment in low-carbon initiatives will be temporarily scaled back. The approach reflects a balancing act between near-term production priorities and long-term sustainability goals. Brent crude has fallen nearly 13% this year, settling in the low $60s due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand. Despite these challenges, Occidental anticipates maintaining or slightly increasing 2026 output by around 2%, supported by advanced unconventional drilling techniques in the Permian Basin. The company is also prioritizing debt reduction following major acquisitions. Shareholder returns remain a key focus, with plans for share buybacks and preferred share redemptions aimed at maintaining investor confidence amid market uncertainty. Occidental’s strategy mirrors a broader trend among U.S. oil producers, which are emphasizing capital discipline and financial health over aggressive expansion. As the energy sector navigates price volatility, technological innovation and strategic investment choices will likely define the industry’s resilience and long-term trajectory.

Increased New Mexico oil spill list identifies OKC firm - A new report by the environmental group, WildEarth Guardians, claims the number of oil and gas spills that occurred in the third quarter of the year in New Mexico soared 400%. It identified an Oklahoma company has one of the most frequent offenders. The group said four of the five largest spills happened at produced water “recycling” facilities, exposing the risks of reusing toxic fracking waste. WildEarth Guardians stated in its findings that Oklahoma City’s Devon Energy along with ExxonMobil’s XTO were among the top offenders. The Q3 2025 Waste Watch report documents 350 fluid spills between July 1 and September 30, including more than 2 million gallons of toxic waste “lost” to the environment, largely in the Permian Basin of southwest New Mexico. The findings confirm a dramatic escalation from both the Q1 and Q2 reports, which already showed steady increases in waste and wellsite mismanagement across state and federal lands. “Toxic spills exploded nearly 400 percent this quarter—mostly on public lands,” said Melissa Troutman, Climate & Health Advocate and lead author of the report. “Produced water ‘recycling’ sites are becoming major polluters. Large contaminant ponds used for storage and treatment of produced water lead to much bigger spills.” The report found that four of the five largest spills this quarter occurred at so-called produced-water “recycling” or reuse sites, where toxic wastewater is stored and treated for reuse in new drilling operations. The largest, on July 15, 2025, involved OXY USA’s Mesa Verde East site on federal public land, where equipment failure caused a spill of 1.6 million gallons of produced water and 126,000 gallons of crude oil, nearly all of which were lost to the environment. “These ‘recycling’ facilities are ground zero for contamination,” said Troutman. “They prove what we’ve been warning regulators: you can’t safely reuse or discharge toxic oil and gas waste without putting water, land, and communities at risk.” Over 60% of all spills occurred on federal lands, confirming that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and EPA continue to fail in enforcement. The surge in spills comes as the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission (WQCC) considers a controversial new rule that would allow the discharge of treated produced water into the environment — the very waste responsible for this quarter’s biggest contamination events.WildEarth Guardians and coalition partners previously won a strong discharge prohibition rule in May, which is now under appeal by industry. The current WQCC proceeding—backed by the Oil and Gas Association and “recycling” operators—seeks to roll back those protections.“This data is Exhibit A in why the WQCC must reject the proposed produced water discharge rule sponsored by industry,” said Rebecca Sobel, Climate & Health Director at WildEarth Guardians. “If companies can’t safely contain produced water at their own recycling facilities inside the oilfield, there’s no justification for allowing them to transport this waste offsite to dump into rivers or spread onto fields.” Across all three quarters of 2025, more than 7.6 million gallons of oil and gas wastes and other contaminants have been spilled in New Mexico — equivalent to over 1,200 tanker trucks of toxic material. Yet no major fines or penalties have been issued to repeat violators. Trade-secret loopholes continue to hide chemical identities, making cleanup, worker protection, and medical response far more difficult and dangerous.“The state’s produced-water ‘recycling’ experiment has turned public lands into toxic waste zones,” Sobel said. “Regulators have the authority—and obligation—to stop the next spill disaster before it happens.”

Western States, Tribal Nations Eye Pacific LNG Path for Rockies Natural Gas -- Members of the Western States and Tribal Nations (WSTN) Energy Initiative along with state officials are heralding the Rocky Mountains region as a potential cost-competitive source for LNG supply.
Line chart comparing NGI’s Henry Hub and Rocky Mountains regional average daily natural gas prices from November 2024 through November 2025. Both price trends rise sharply during February 2025 before stabilizing around $3.00/MMBtu through the remainder of the year. At A Glance:
Rockies gas potential estimated at 277 Tcf
Two LNG export routes identified
Asian demand drives regional ambitions

ARC Resources Reaffirms LNG Pricing Exposure and Connection to LNG Canada | RBN Energy -ARC Resources Ltd., one of Canada’s largest natural gas producers, reported its third quarter earnings on November 7, highlighting further developments for its Montney focused portfolio as well as providing an additional corporate update on its future LNG supply/pricing exposure and connection to LNG Canada.

• Although the company’s 150 MMcf/d supply agreement to LNG Canada via a contractual arrangement with Shell Canada, the operator of LNG Canada, has been known since early 2024, ARC’s latest corporate update provided clear confirmation that its Sunrise gas plant is now hard connected to the Coastal GasLink Pipeline that ships gas to LNG Canada (green and purple dashed lines in company slide below). The company has not yet made any mention as to whether gas has been flowing or not.
• Approximately 25% of planned natural gas production by 2029 will be flowing under contracts that increase the company’s exposure to international LNG prices. The 200 MMcf/d supply contribution to Cedar LNG (greed dashed rectangle in company slide below), located a short distance from LNG Canada, represents approximately one-half of the anticipated gas intake for the project. ARC is aligned with several other large natural gas producers such as Tourmaline Oil Corp. and Canadian Natural Resources that have been diversifying their natural gas price exposure away from Western Canada toward international LNG price markers.
• The company confirmed that output of natural gas (~360 MMcf/d) at its Sunrise project in the British Columbia Montney was curtailed for a majority of Q3 2025 due to low natural gas prices, with production restored as of late October. Gas plant flow data for August and September confirm the reduction with September recording zero volume through the plant. The return of production in late October, along with increased output from many other producers, recently sent Western Canadian natural gas production to a record high in early November (see our Analyst Insight of November 5).

Pembina Forges Ahead with Pipeline/Fractionator Expansions and LNG Marketing -Pembina Pipeline Corporation, one of Canada’s largest midstream companies, announced its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6 which incorporated a raft of updates for its suite of pipeline and fractionator expansions to take on Western Canada’s expected NGL growth over the next several years. The company also advanced a key LNG marketing arrangement as part of its commitment to the under-construction Cedar LNG project at Kitimat, BC. Key announcements included:

• Construction of its new 55 Mb/d propane-plus (C3+) Redwater Fractionator (RFS IV) is 75% complete and remains on track to begin operations in Q2 2026. The start up of this unit will bring fractionation capacity at the Redwater complex to ~256 Mb/d (which includes 60 Mb/d of C2 ethane fractionation capacity at the RFS I and RFS II units).
• Pipeline expansion announcements included:
  • Fox Creek-to-Namao: 70 Mb/d expansion that is part of the company’s larger Peace Pipeline system to increase NGL shipment capacity from West Central Alberta to the Namao hub near the Redwater fractionation complex. A final investment decision (FID) is expected by the end of 2025.
  • Taylor-to-Gordondale: a new pipeline to link NGL production growth in the British Columbia Montney into the Peace Pipeline and is intended transport up to 118 Mb/d of condensate (field condensate) from Taylor, BC to a connection with the Peace Pipeline near Gordondale, AB. On November 7, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) recommended approval for the project to the federal Governor-in-Council with a decision expected by early 2026. The company is contemplating FID in 2026.
  • Birch-to-Taylor: a pipeline proposal to increase throughput capacity from Birch, BC to Taylor, BC to accommodate anticipated NGL growth from the Montney and would ostensibly be connected to the Taylor-to-Gordondale expansion. FID is anticipated in 2026.
• Pembina announced on November 5 that it had entered into a 20-year contractual agreement to supply 1 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa) of LNG to Petronas from the under-construction Cedar LNG project. This marks the first step in Pembina’s remarketing of its 20-year 1.5 MMtpa tolling and liquefaction agreement that it entered in June 2024 to bring about a positive final investment decision for the construction of Cedar LNG. The company reported that it expects to reach definitive agreements for the remarketing of the remaining 0.5 MMtpa of capacity by the end of 2025. Cedar LNG is a 3.3 MMtpa (~400 MMcf/d) liquefaction plant under construction as part of a 49.9%(Pembina)/50.1% (Haisla) joint venture with the Haisla First Nation with a planned in-service of late 2028.
• The Greenlight Electricity Centre, a 50/50 partnership with Kineticor, made additional progress. As proposed, the project is working toward the construction of up to 1,800 MW of natural gas-fired combined-cycle power generation that would be tied to future data centres in Sturgeon County, AB. An agreement has been signed for the delivery of two turbines with a total generation capacity of 900 MW for the first phase of the project. FID is anticipated in the first half of 2026 with an in-service date targeting 2030.
• The company’s Alliance pipeline will launch a binding open season for a new point-to-point service agreement for up to 350 MMcf/d of gas from a point in northwest Alberta to Fort Saskatchewan, AB. Pembina suggests that agreement could be tied to gas delivery for the Greenlight Electricity Centre. Although not explicitly mentioned by Pembina, the agreement may involve capacity commitments to ATCO’s proposed 1.1 Bcf/d Yellowhead Pipeline that would ship gas from northwest Alberta to Fort Saskatchewan.

Alberta’s September Crude Oil Production Slips, But More Gains Year-on-Year | RBN Energy -Alberta’s crude oil output in September 2025 slipped to 4.22 MMb/d (height of stacked columns inside dashed rectangle in chart below), a record for the month, a small loss of 0.02 MMb/d versus August and 0.39 MMb/d greater than a year ago. The small monthly decline was driven by a small reduction in output of synthetic crude oil (red columns) to 1.31 MMb/d, a loss of 0.05 MMb/d versus August. Some offset was provided by an increase in non-upgraded bitumen (green columns) of 0.04 MMb/d to 2.26 MMb/d, just short of the record 2.31 MMb/d set in July, with other production categories largely unchanged month-on-month. Year-on-year production gains remained focused in non-upgraded bitumen (green columns inside dashed rectangle in chart above), with the September increase versus a year ago registering at 0.27 MMb/d and the year-to-date gain computing as 0.12 MMb/d. Expansion work is ongoing at numerous bitumen production sites with major players such as Cenovus, Imperial Oil, Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources all highlighting various project upgrades in recent quarterly conference calls that will ensure additional growth into the end of this year and in 2026-27. Year-to-date average oil production stands at a record 4.09 MMb/d, ahead of 2024’s full-year average of 3.98 MMb/d. RBN is expecting that Alberta’s average oil output in 2025 will rise 0.16 MMb/d to 4.14 MMb/d as expansion work continues in the oil sands, primarily related to the production of non-upgraded bitumen.

Waterborne Crude Oil Exports from Trans Mountain Fall in October, But Exports to China Hit Record -Waterborne crude oil exports from the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) averaged 421 Mb/d in October 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), a drop of 51 Mb/d versus a revised September level of 472 Mb/d and an increase of 6 Mb/d from a year ago, based on tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. October’s exports marked the first month-on-month decline since June. Export upside may materialize in November with media stories suggesting that tanker export bookings off TMX have increased in response to favorable pricing opportunities versus other overseas crude streams and wider sanctions on exports of Russian crude oil in an attempt to target importing countries such as China. China (red columns) held its position as the largest purchaser of Canadian crude oil for the tenth consecutive month and a record level with October’s exports pegged at 342 Mb/d, 42 Mb/d higher than September’s revised level of 300 Mb/d, and 116 Mb/d higher than a year ago. A distant second in the month were exports to the United States (blue columns), landing at 79 Mb/d, a significant drop of 93 Mb/d versus September and 92 Mb/d less than one year ago. The sharp drop may have been a result of turnarounds at California refineries during the month, as well as the winding down of crude imports on the pending closures of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery at the end of this year and Valero’s Benecia refinery in April 2026. Both have been regular importers of crude from TMX. No other countries were reported by Bloomberg as destinations for Canadian crude from TMX in October. China’s imports have been exclusively geared to heavy oil consisting of Access Western Blend (AWB), a sour, higher acid blend of diluted bitumen (grey columns in chart below), and Cold Lake Blend (teal columns), another sour diluted bitumen closer to Western Canadian Select (WCS), Western Canada’s benchmark heavy oil, with lower acid and sulfur content than AWB. Exports to China of AWB were a record 292 Mb/d in October, up from 264 Mb/d in September and zero a year ago. In contrast, Cold Lake exports in October tallied just 34 Mb/d, down from 36 Mb/d in September, and a huge drop from 226 Mb/d one year ago. New refineries and growing experience in handling the higher sour and acid content of Canadian barrels have shifted China’s focus to AWB for both logistical and economic reasons.

Lower 48 LNG Flows to Europe Expand Under Venture Global, Kinetik Contracts - European natural gas buyers have locked in more long-term U.S. LNG supply under a pair of deals aimed at increasing energy security. At A Glance:
Greek company locks in 0.5 Mt/y
Ineos to sell 0.5 Mt/y to Kinetik
TTF cools to $10.60 range

TC Energy Bets on Rising Mexico Natural Gas Imports, Power Expansion - Executives at Canadian midstream giant TC Energy Corp. were bullish about natural gas demand in Mexico during their third quarter earnings call. Map showing Southeast Mexico’s natural gas infrastructure, including operational and proposed pipelines, gas processing plants, LNG export projects, and key hubs such as Villahermosa, Coatzacoalcos, Mérida, and Veracruz. The map highlights NGI’s Mexico gas price index points, the Lakach natural gas field, and the under-construction Southeast Gateway Pipeline. At A Glance:
Mexico imports hit record 8 Bcf/d
Southeast Gateway pipeline to ramp
Power buildout drives new gas capacity

IEA predicts increase in oil and gas consumption by 2050 -- The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook predicts an increase in oil and gas consumption through 2050, with the US set to remain the world’s largest producer. The IEA projected that oil demand could reach around 113 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) by mid-century, an increase of roughly 13% from 2024 consumption. The agency also predicted that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity could expand to roughly 1.02 trillion cubic metres. Total final consumption increases in the current policies scenario (CPS) by around 1.3% each year over the next decade, according to the IEA. Global energy demand is forecasted to increase by approximately 90 exajoules by 2035. IEA restored the current policies framework for the first time since 2019 after finding insufficient 2031–35 national climate plans to form a pledges-based pathway. The agency said that its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions and are not forecasts. In the stated policies scenario, which includes proposed but not yet adopted measures, oil demand peaks around 2030. The report noted final investment decisions in 2025 will bring online around 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) of new annual LNG export capacity by 2030. This represents an increase in global LNG volumes from around 560bcm in 2024 to 880bcm in 2035 and 1,020bcm by 2050. IEA predicted a rise in power-sector demand from data centres and AI. It projects global investment in data centres at $580bn in 2025. The outlook identifies electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates as a key variable. Under the CPS, EV market share broadly plateaus after 2035, supporting higher oil consumption to mid-century. In the stated policies scenario, EV sales double by 2030 and exceed 50% of new car sales around 2035. The IEA also outlines a net-zero scenario that requires the deployment of emissions reductions and carbon removal technologies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: “When we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once – a situation that calls for the same spirit and focus that governments showed when they created the IEA after the 1973 oil shock. “With energy security front and centre for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change. “The World Energy Outlook’s scenarios illustrate the key decision points that lie ahead and, together, provide a framework for evidence-based, data-driven discussion over the way forward.” The IEA, funded by member countries, with the US as the largest contributor, has faced pressure from the US to shift focus towards clean energy, reported Reuters. Last month, the IEA projected an estimated surplus in the global oil market for 2026 of up to 4mbbl/d.

EIA Raises US Oil Output Forecast, Says Oversupply Will Weigh on Prices - (Reuters) – U.S. oil production is expected to set a larger record this year than previously forecast, even as global oil supply outpaces fuel demand, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on Wednesday. The Department of Energy’s statistical arm expects U.S. oil output to average 13.6 million barrels per day both this year and in 2026, up from its prior forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years. The agency said the revision was due to higher than expected output in August. Get the Latest US Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It's FREE: Quick Sign-Up Here Oil output averaged 13.2 bpd last year, which was the prior record. Global oil inventories will rise through 2026 as global oil production is growing faster than demand for petroleum fuels, the EIA said, expecting it to pressure crude oil prices. Tarco | Delivering Engineered Solutions Oil prices will fall through the end of 2025 and to average $55 per barrel in 2026, the EIA said. Petroleum fuel prices will fall as the price of oil comes down. U.S. gasoline prices is expected to fall to an average of $3 per gallon in next year, down 10% from 2024, and diesel prices will drop to $3.5 per gallon in 2026, down 7% from 2024, the EIA said. The price of crude oil accounts for roughly half the price of gasoline and diesel. The EIA forecasts the price of crude oil to account for a 43% share of the price of gasoline and 36% of the price of diesel in 2026.

Europe's LNG Demand Surge Flips Global Gas Market -- Asia has been the driver of global demand for liquefied natural gas for years now, with its fast-growing economies guzzling energy at elevated rates. This year, however, has seen this change. Asian demand for LNG is weakening—but Europe’s is on a substantial rise, more than offsetting Asia’s weakness, despite plans to reduce consumption of all hydrocarbons. LNG imports to Asia last month stood at 22.84 million tons, Kpler data, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell, showed. This was a slight increase from September but palpably lower than October 2024, when imports hit 24.39 million tons. Over the first ten months of the year, Asia’s imports of liquefied gas were down by over 14 million tons on the year to 225.8 million tons. Russell suggests China was one driver of this trend, booking year-on-year LNG import declines every month since November 2024. Yet while Asian energy importers curbed their purchases of liquefied gas, European buyers stepped up their orders. The Kpler data shows that over the first ten months of the year, Europe imported 101.38 million tons of the fuel. This was 16.75 million tons more than what Europe imported a year earlier—even as the EU leadership boasted about permanently reducing the bloc’s consumption of natural gas, not just from Russia but in general. It was this increase in European LNG purchases that likely affected demand for the superchilled fuel in Asia. Despite growing at a faster clip than Europe overall, Asian economies are more price-sensitive in energy imports. A surge in demand for LNG from Europe regularly prices out poorer Asian importers, although an argument could be made that Europe is finding it increasingly hard to pay its own energy import bills as it stretches itself thin to fund an energy transition away from oil and gas, and an accelerated buildout of military capabilities that requires cheap energy to be successful. Europe, in other words, has emerged as a hotspot for LNG demand, drawing the attention of producers. However, this attention is not homogeneous. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, for instance, has repeatedly called on Europe to stop importing Russian energy altogether and boost its purchases of U.S. LNG. Indeed, the European Commission’s president Ursula von der Leyen signed a trade deal with President Trump, committing to a massive increase in such purchases. Yet one of the largest LNG exporters in the world, Exxon, has warned it may have to stop doing business with the EU unless it axes new legislation that aims to force international companies to track their emissions and human rights record across their supply chains.Exxon, moreover, is not the only one threatening to quit Europe if it goes ahead with the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Qatar, the world’s number-two in LNG exports, is also going to stop selling gas to Europe if it tries to force QatarEnergy to track and reduce its emissions, and monitor human rights protection, or risk getting fined 5% of its annual global revenues.Meanwhile, as the EU buys ever more LNG—including from Russia—one energy-focused energy transition advocacy outlet warned the bloc should not saddle itself with long-term LNG purchase commitments, because demand for gas in Europe was about to shed a quarter over the next 25 years.“European countries risk over-relying on one supplier if they commit to long-term US LNG contracts. The US supplied more than half (57%) of Europe’s LNG imports in H1 2025, as deliveries from the country reached a new high,” the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis reported earlier this month, noting that Germany and Greece had topped the single-supplier list, sourcing a respective 94% and 84% of their LNG from the United States over the first half of the year.Yet the IEEFA believes this acceleration in LNG purchases this year is a temporary glitch while demand dynamics point to a weakening in the future. The reason: more wind and solar. This has been the go-to argument of the pro-transition lobby, even though evidence suggests the record buildout of wind and solar generation has done little to change the energy consumption makeup of the European energy system outside certain seasonal output peaks. Germany, for instance, was recently revealed to have booked the highest rate of power generation from natural gas power plants due to weak winds for most of the year.While the IEEFA and other transition outlets predict gas demand destruction in Europe, they also predict a glut of LNG due to excess capacity. Yet cheaper LNG is likely to only push demand higher across more importing countries as the commodity becomes more affordable for everyone. With the weather unlikely to become more predictable in the future, chances are that reliance on natural gas will continue strong in both Europe and Asia, regardless of transition ambitions.

Naftogaz Secures Greek, Polish Partnerships to Import US LNG --Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz Group has signed separate agreements with Poland's state-owned ORLEN SA and a new Greek company for the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced in the United States into Ukraine and other European countries. Naftogaz and Atlantic-See LNG Trade SA, formed last week by Greece's Aktor Group and DEPA Commercial SMSA, "agreed to jointly develop the supply of LNG from the U.S. to Europe and Ukraine through Greek LNG terminals and the Vertical Corridor", Naftogaz said in a statement on its website. "This long-term partnership extends through 2050 and will enable the phased implementation of new strategic projects: ensuring stable long-term LNG supplies for Ukraine; integrating Ukraine’s infrastructure into Europe’s LNG logistics routes; creating a sustainable system for the storage and supply of U.S. LNG". Concurrently gas transmission system operators (TSOs) that are part of the Vertical Corridor, a network of existing gas infrastructure allowing the multidirectional flow of gas across seven European countries, signed a joint letter requesting that regulators in Bulgaria, Greece, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine approve more flows via two routes. "TSOs request the regulators’ approval on the availability of Routes 2 and 3 until April 2026; and the possibility of simultaneous provision of Route 1, Route 2 and Route 3 special capacity products in competing auctions", said a statement posted on DESFA's website. "All participating TSOs have agreed to apply significant discounts - ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent across their interconnection points, to encourage market use of the new capacity and facilitate diversified gas flows. The coordinated tariff reductions and the availability of multiple route options will help mitigate potential disruptions, support uninterrupted deliveries to Ukraine, and ensure the most efficient use of existing infrastructure across the region.

U.S. outpaces Russia by 75% in natural gas output, EIA finds - The United States remains the world’s largest natural gas producer, outpacing Russia by 75% in 2023, according to a new analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports. The report notes that U.S. production reached 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) last year, marking a record high and underscoring the country’s position as a dominant global supplier. The United States has maintained this leadership since 2009. In the first half of 2025, U.S. output climbed even further, averaging 106 Bcf/d. Three major regions—the Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville - rank among the world’s top 10 natural gas-producing areas when compared individually with other countries. The Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, produced 33 Bcf/d in 2023, making it the second-largest gas-producing area globally. Output has remained steady through the first half of 2025. In the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, production increased from 21 Bcf/d in 2023 to 25 Bcf/d in early 2025, ranking the region fifth worldwide. Meanwhile, production in the Haynesville region - spanning Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas - slipped slightly from 15 Bcf/d to 14 Bcf/d during the same period. According to the EIA, the sustained growth of U.S. natural gas production continues to reshape global energy markets and strengthen the country’s role as a key supplier in the evolving energy landscape.

Iran reports sharp rise in household gas consumption - Iran is experiencing a major rise in daily gas consumption as more households and businesses turn up their heating to cope with an early cold spell. Figures released on Sunday by the Iranian Oil Ministry’s news service Shana showed that the country’s gas use had reached 695.9 million cubic meters (mcm) per day on Friday. The figures showed that households and businesses were responsible for more than 54% of the total gas consumption in Iran. The local branch of the National Iranian Gas Company in Tehran province, which includes the capital, said on Sunday that gas use in the province had hit 57 million cubic meters in the past 24 hours, up 67% from the same period last week. The figures come amid a sharp drop in temperatures in Tehran and other cities in Iran. However, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), which controls the country’s gas fields in the south, said it is fully prepared to cope with a sudden rise in demand for natural gas. NIOC CEO Hamid Bovard was in the gas production hub of Assaluyeh, in southern Iran, on Sunday to assess the readiness of refineries and transmission facilities for the winter season. “Thanks to the planning we’ve done based on last year’s experience, we’re entering this winter with better preparation and coordination,” Bovard said. The official, who also serves as a deputy oil minister, said that Iran's improved management of gas demand would allow it to ease some of the restrictions typically imposed on industries during the colder months. Iran is the world's fourth-largest consumer of natural gas, after the US, Russia, and China, with a peak demand that reaches nearly 900 million cubic meters per day on some cold winter days. NIGC figures show household demand for gas reached peaks of nearly 600 million mcm last year.

IEA: Oil and gas demand to rise through 2050, climate goals at risk | IranOilGas Network - The International Energy Agency (IEA) now projects that global oil and gas demand will continue rising until 2050, marking a shift from its earlier forecasts of a rapid clean energy transition. In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA’s “current policies” scenario—based on existing, not aspirational, climate policies—foresees oil demand reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2050, a 13% increase from 2024. The agency predicts total energy demand will grow 15% by 2035, largely driven by expanding data centers and AI-related power use. LNG capacity is set to surge 50% by 2030, reaching over 1,000 bcm annually by 2050. The IEA dropped its “pledges scenario” this year, citing insufficient national climate plans for 2031–2035. It also warns that global temperatures are on track to exceed the 1.5°C target from the Paris Agreement, unless large-scale carbon removal technologies are deployed.

Russian Oil Production Rises in October, Still Below OPEC+ Limits - In October, crude oil production in the Russian Federation increased to an average of 9.41 million barrels per day, which is 43,000 barrels more compared to September. However, even with this increase, the production volume remained 70,000 barrels below the established OPEC+ quota, which also requires compliance with obligations related to compensatory cuts due to previous excesses over the limits. The Russian oil sector continues to face pressure from the international community. In particular, new U.S. sanctions targeting the largest oil companies in Russia, as well as the increase in Ukrainian drone attacks on the aggressor’s energy infrastructure, significantly complicate the industry’s operations. If Moscow is unable to find new buyers for sanctioned companies or quickly restore damaged refining capacities, the aggressor country may be forced to suspend production at certain fields. This threatens to damage wells and could lead to a long-term reduction in the country’s production capabilities.According to reports, Australia, despite officially halting direct purchases of energy resources from Russia, has received over 3 million tons of oil products from Russia through third countries since 2023 due to the imperfections in the sanctions mechanisms. In effect, this provides additional support to Russian oil production and fills the Kremlin’s budget.In turn, the Japanese Ministry of Economy noted that even after the introduction of new U.S. sanctions against Rosneft, foreign participation projects, such as Sakhalin-1, remain critically important for the country’s energy security. The new U.S. restrictions on Russia will take effect on November 21: after this date, all operations with Rosneft and Lukoil must be ceased.The situation in the Indian market is also changing. Indian state-owned refineries have begun purchasing crude oil from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries instead of Russian oil. Specifically, two enterprises acquired 5 million barrels of oil on the spot market, including American WTI oil, Murban from Abu Dhabi, and Basra Medium.

US Sanctions Push Indian Refiners Away From Russian Crude - All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg on Tuesday. India’s refiners, which have come to rely on cheap Russian crude in the past three years, have withdrawn from the December purchasing window which typically closes by November 10. Five large refiners, including state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), and private firms Reliance Industries Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have not requested any Russian crude for December. Combined, these five firms have imported two-thirds of all Russian crude oil into India year to date, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg. Only India’s biggest state-held refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft holds 49%, have purchased crude from Russia for December, per Bloomberg’s sources. At the end of October, following the U.S. sanctions on Russia, IOC acquired five December-arriving cargoes of Russian crude from non-sanctioned sellers. IOC has bought about 3.5 million barrels of Russia’s ESPO crude at about the same price as the Dubai quotes for delivery at an eastern Indian port in December, a trade sources told Reuters, without naming the sellers of the Russian oil. IOC has vowed that it would fully comply with international sanctions related to crude oil imports from Russia.

Middle Eastern Oil Producers Boost Crude Supplies to India | Egypt Oil & Gas -Middle Eastern oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, will increase crude oil shipments to India in December. This strategic move allows the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members to reclaim market share as Indian refiners pivot from Russian supplies due to tightening Western sanctions.The shift follows a pause in purchases from Russia by many Indian refiners after the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom (UK) imposed fresh sanctions on top Russian producers, including Rosneft and Lukoil, last month. The sanctions disrupted typical trade flows, prompting buyers in the world’s third-largest oil consumer and importer to seek alternative suppliers.Indian refiners have received full crude allocations from Saudi Arabia and Iraq for December, in line with their requests. Furthermore, one refiner is slated to receive a higher monthly supply from Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) compared to November, while Saudi Aramco has similarly raised deliveries to another Indian refiner. Kuwait Petroleum (KPC) is also ramping up supplies to Indian buyers in November and December.The increase in supply is supported by the reduction of official selling prices (OSPs) by both Saudi Aramco and SOMO, making Middle Eastern crude more financially attractive to Indian buyers. This ample oil availability has allowed Indian refiners to expand spot purchases from the Middle East, Iraq, and the US to secure steady fuel supplies. Saudi Aramco declined to comment, while SOMO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russian Seaborne Oil Exports Drop to 3-Month Low Amid New U.S. Sanctions -Russia’s seaborne oil shipments fell to a three-month low last week as Moscow rushed to reroute shipments following U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy companies, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Friday, citing market analysts. The Center for Pricing Indices, a Russian export-pricing agency, said seaborne exports averaged around 320,000 metric tons per day in the week of Nov. 3-9, the lowest level since mid-July. Only 23 tankers reportedly left Russia that week compared to a typical 26-28. The drop came less than two weeks after the United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. However, analysts at the agency say the slump in seaborne oil exports reflects a temporary dislocation in supply chains rather than a collapse in demand. The U.S. measures allowed shipowners to charge higher “risk premiums” for carrying Russian oil, especially on routes to Turkey, where authorities enforce compliance rules more strictly, according to The Center for Pricing Indices. Freight costs rose 3.7% week-on-week across most major routes. Despite higher costs, analysts at the agency said the market is not facing an acute tanker deficit and capacity remains sufficient to move current export volumes. The uptick in freight costs also comes amid Russia’s growing reliance on a so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers, or independent carriers that are less constrained by Western commercial and political pressures. India’s imports of Russian crude have remained steady despite the shipping route turmoil, with the 3.6 million metric tons supplied between Oct. 27 and Nov. 9 above average September-October levels. The Center for Pricing Indices forecasts that freight rates will continue strengthening through November as trading activity resumes under the new logistics setup. NEFT Research, a consultancy firm, expects shipping costs to end the month 10-15% higher than before the U.S. sanctions.

U.S. Sanctions Strand a Third of Russia’s Crude Exports at Sea - Nearly a third of Russia’s current seaborne oil export potential is now stuck in tankers as the U.S. sanctions upend crude flows and Russia’s top buyers, China and India, are still struggling to assess the implications of the sanctions, according to JPMorgan. “Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect, prompting its two largest customers — India and China — to sharply reduce their December purchases,” the Wall Street bank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.According to JPMorgan’s estimates, as many as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, or nearly a third of its exporting potential, are on tankers at present, amid re-routing and slowed unloading as buyers are hesitant following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. Due to the sanctions, the discount of Russia’s flagship crude Urals to Brent has widened in recent days to the highest this year at $20 per barrel. As of Monday, Urals was priced $19.40 per barrel below Brent on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, widening from $13-$14 per barrel discount at the beginning of November, an industry source told Russian daily Kommersant earlier this week, citing data by Argus. All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg earlier this week. In China, major state-owned refiners have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian crude oil, but the independent refiners in the Shandong province, the so-called teapots, are unlikely to halt imports of the cheap crude that has become a staple for their refineries.

Oil Prices Climb as Senate Passes Deal to Reopen Government | OilPrice.com --In early Asian trade on Monday, crude oil prices were climbing after the United States Senate passed a funding agreement that could end the federal government shutdown. At the time of writing, WTI had climbed to $60.20 while Brent was trading at $64.05, both up by roughly 0.7%. Senate negotiators had struck a deal ahead of a Sunday evening session to begin advancing a House-passed continuing resolution. After nearly two hours, the funding measure passed with the support of eight Democrats.The package combines the continuing resolution with a “minibus” appropriations bundle (three long-term spending bills) and guarantees the Democrats a vote on extending health-insurance tax credits.From a market perspective, the expectation that roughly 800,000 unpaid federal workers will soon see their salaries returned, benefit programs will restart, and key government services will resume is boosting sentiment. Speaking to Reuters, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore argued that the reopening prospect “should also help improve risk sentiment across markets”.The optimism surrounding a deal can be seen on platforms such as Polymarket, which now has the odds of the shutdown ending before the 16th of November at 95%. Despite the rising confidence, a deal still faces some hurdles. After the Senate vote, approval by the United States House of Representatives needs to be secured, and the President will have to sign off before the longest government shutdown in history is brought to an end. For oil markets, a government reopening should lead to improved domestic U.S. demand for goods and services (including energy) and the return of halted government spending, which can bolster crude demand. Additionally, improved risk appetite tends to reduce safe-haven premiums and can shift funds into commodities like oil.

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Market Weighs U.S. Government Shutdown and Oversupply Concerns -- The oil market traded mostly sideways on Monday as it continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range. The market weighed the expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would soon come to an end against the continuing concerns about an oversupply in the market. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending the 40-day shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and impacted air travel. Analysts were concerned about any impact from flight cancellations on U.S. jet fuel demand. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 flights on Sunday, the worst day for disruptions since the start of the shutdown. The crude market breached its previous high as it posted a high of $60.48 in overnight trading. However, it gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $59.41 by mid-day. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract ended the session up 38 cents at $60.13 and the January Brent contract settled up 43 cents at $64.06. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.83 cents at $2.5104 and the RB market settling up 3.08 cents at $1.9711. The Kremlin said it wanted the Ukraine war to end as soon as possible but that efforts to resolve it had stalled. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 500,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 14th, increasing available refining capacity by 303,000 bpd from the previous week. Two Indian state refiners have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from spot markets via tenders as they continue to scout for alternatives to Russian supplies. Hindustan Petroleum Corp bought 2 million barrels each of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January arrival. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd bought one million barrels of Basra Medium crude for January 1st-7th delivery. Indian refiners are scouting for alternatives after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in an attempt to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Sources stated that Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq’s giant West Qurna-2 oilfield after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major affected its operations. Iraq has since halted all cash and crude payments to the company. Lukoil sent a letter to Iraq’s oil ministry last Tuesday saying there are force majeure conditions preventing it from continuing normal operations at the West Qurna-2 field. A senior Iraqi oil industry official said that if the reasons behind the force majeure are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will shut production and exit the project entirely.

Oil settles higher as tight fuel markets offset crude supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Monday as analysts focused on potential fuel supply disruptions from fresh U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, although predictions of a crude supply surplus kept gains in check. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 38 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $60.13 a barrel. Fuel futures led gains in the oil complex as U.S. gasoline futures closed over 1% higher and diesel futures rose close to 1%. A string of refinery issues in the U.S. and drone strikes on Russian refineries have helped lift fuel prices, analysts said. "Refinery issues in the Great Lakes and West Coast have kept prices elevated," He added that thousands of U.S. flight cancellations due to the federal government shutdown could also create more gasoline demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 on Sunday in the worst day for disruptions since the start of the shutdown. In Russia, oil major Lukoil's Volgograd refinery halted operations last Thursday after it was struck by Ukrainian drones, three sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday. On Monday, Russian forces destroyed four drone boats near the country's Black Sea port of Tuapse, a local task force said. Lukoil also declared force majeure at Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oilfield, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major hampered its operations. Lukoil's operations faced mounting disruptions as a U.S. deadline for companies to cut off business with the Russian company looms on November 21 and after an agreement to sell the operations to Swiss trader Gunvor collapsed. The oil market is split between rising volumes of crude stored at sea weighing on oil prices and limited availability of Russian refined products sustaining fuel prices, The volume of oil stored aboard ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks after tightening Western sanctions curtailed imports into China and India, and onshore inventories were also on the rise in the U.S.. Both crude oil benchmarks fell about 2% last week, their second consecutive weekly decline, on expectations that crude oil supply will exceed demand in the months ahead due to higher OPEC+ production and record U.S. output. This month, OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, agreed to increase output slightly in December. While the group also paused further hikes in the first quarter, that may not limit supplies enough to support prices. "Even with the prospect of reduced Russian supply and the 1Q26 freeze on OPEC+ production quotas, the global crude oil market may run a smaller supply/demand surplus rather than a more supportive deficit," Evans said.Oil prices were also supported by investors' increasing willingness to hold so-called risk assets as signs emerged of progress towards ending the U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Senate moved forward on Sunday on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending the shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel. U.S. lawmakers' first step toward ending the shutdown boosted investors' risk appetite, PVM's Varga said.

Oil Prices Fall Amid Concerns Over Supply Glut and Sanctions on Russia - Oil prices declined in Asian trading on Tuesday, as concerns over excess supply outweighed uncertainty about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, despite optimism over progress toward reopening the U.S. government. Brent crude futures fell by 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.79 per barrel by 07:17 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $59.86 per barrel. Both benchmarks had gained about 40 cents in the previous session. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to end this week after the Senate approved a deal to fund the federal government, which will now go to the House of Representatives. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hope to pass it by Wednesday. While progress toward reopening the government has supported markets generally, concerns about crude oversupply continue to weigh on oil prices. "With OPEC production continuing to rise, global oil balances are tilting increasingly negative on the supply side, while demand continues to slow amid sluggish economic growth in major oil-consuming countries." Earlier this month, the OPEC+ alliance approved a 137,000 barrels per day production increase for December, maintaining the same level as in October and November, and agreed not to raise output further in the first quarter of next year. Although the supply glut from rising OPEC output has prompted investors to adopt more pessimistic positions in recent weeks, U.S. sanctions remain a focal point. Analysts at ANZ noted that President Donald Trump’s recent measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil add further market uncertainty. Reuters reported Monday that Lukoil declared force majeure at one oil field in Iraq, while Bulgaria is preparing to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery, marking the most direct impact yet from last month’s sanctions. Oil inventories on ships in Asian waters have also doubled in recent weeks, as strict Western sanctions reduced exports to China and India, while import quota restrictions limited demand from independent Chinese refineries. Some refineries in China and India have turned to buying oil from the Middle East and other regions. "One potential challenge to the current bearish outlook for oil is whether China will continue to channel Russian supplies into its strategic reserves, and whether India will respond to Trump’s pressures by delaying further purchases from Russia."

Traders Assess the Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil - The crude market continued to trend higher on Tuesday as traders assess the impact of the U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, with Lukoil declaring force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates on Monday. Also, optimism that the U.S. government shutdown could this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding is increasing demand expectations. The oil market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading, posting a low of $59.66. However, the market bounced off its low and breached its previous highs and retraced more than 62% of its move from high of $62.59 to a low of $58.83 as it rallied to a high of $61.28 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled up 91 cents at $61.04 and the January Brent contract settled up $1.10 at $65.16. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.53 cents at $2.5757 and the RBOB market settling up 4.09 cents at $2.0120. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +11% w/w to 95.18 million bbls in the week ended November 7. According to Kpler, EU-27 and UK diesel and gasoil imports reached about 772,000 bpd from November 1st-11th, compared with a one-year high of 1.17 million bpd in October. According to traders and LSEG data, Russia has maintained a steady pace of oil shipments from its sea ports at the start of November despite new U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s largest oil companies. Traders said exports are proceeding according to schedule in various directions, with tankers from the so-called shadow fleet and vessels flying Russian flags continuing to participate in shipments. They said many vessels loading at Russia’s western ports, Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk, list Port Said or the Suez Canal as their destination, but later continue on to Asian ports, mainly India and China. Supplies of Urals crude to India are continuing for now, with cargoes sold before the latest Western sanctions still arriving. Traders expect stable shipments to continue at least until November 21st, the deadline set by Washington for transactions with sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil. Volumes are expected to start declining from late November, with December shipments set to fall further. Traders expect that unsold oil may eventually be shipped to China, with Russian oil being sold in Asia at the deepest discounts in the past year. Average estimates put November transshipment of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO grades in Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk at about 2.3 million bpd, compared with around 2.4 million bpd in October, including volumes rolling over from September. Sources at three Indian refiners said both Saudi Arabia and Iraq have allocated full term crude volumes to Indian refiners for December, while also offering more under optional contracts. Increasing demand from Indian suppliers for Middle East crude came after they paused Russian oil buying due to tightening Western sanctions.

Oil up as investors balance sanctions risks, oversupply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about $1 on Tuesday on the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, although oversupply concerns limited gains. Brent crude futures settled $1.10, or 1.72%, higher to $65.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 91 cents, or 1.51%, to settle at $61.04 a barrel. Investors continued to assess the fallout from the U.S. sanctions on Russia, and their impact on both crude oil and refined fuel markets. Russia's Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates, sources told Reuters on Monday, marking the biggest fallout yet from the sanctions imposed last month. Restricted fuel exports due to the sanctions are propping up oil prices in the face of a crude oil glut, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. "Fresh U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil producers and exporters are weighing on product exports," Varga said. As a result, heating oil and gasoline are moving in a different direction from crude. Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait will raise crude oil supplies to India in December as Indian refiners seek alternatives to Russian barrels, sources at four Indian refiners said on Tuesday. The markets also saw support as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history could end this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding. "The optimism around the government reopening is increasing demand expectations," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is due to vote on the deal Wednesday afternoon. However, worries about crude oversupply are curbing price gains. Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, but also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year. "The oil market is also facing a considerable oversupply in the coming year, which is why prices are likely to remain under pressure. The main cause of the oversupply is the significant expansion of supply by OPEC+," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has added 2 million bpd of output since April, and a willingness within the group to reverse voluntary production cuts further after the first quarter pause could add an extra 1 million bpd in the coming year, Commerzbank said.

Oil’s Fragile Balance: Supply Fears Meet China’s Strategic Buying - Crude oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade, pausing after three straight sessions of gains. The move reflects a fragile balance between technical correction and a deeper shift in sentiment as traders weigh the risk of oversupply against renewed strategic demand from China. Brent futures hovered near $82 a barrel, while WTI held close to $78, both slightly lower on the day after a modest rally earlier in the week. The underlying narrative remains one of divergence between fundamentals and positioning. On one side, the supply outlook is loosening as U.S. production stays near record levels above 13 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC supply continues to expand. Forecasts from the International Energy Agency point to a surplus in the first half of next year as global demand growth cools to around 1.1 million barrels per day. On the other side, China’s refineries have quietly increased crude imports for stockpiling, filling strategic reserves as prices stabilize. That buying has tempered the downside pressure, preventing a deeper correction despite the broader risk-off tone across commodities. Macro conditions have reinforced the cautious mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm near 104, limiting gains for dollar-priced commodities. U.S. Treasury yields have steadied, with the 10-year holding at 4.40%, as markets await fresh inflation data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate path. A strong dollar, coupled with resilient yields, has historically capped rallies in oil by tightening global liquidity and raising the cost of imports for energy-intensive economies. Equity markets have reflected the same ambivalence. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5% in the prior session, tracking higher oil futures, but gains faded in after-hours trading as crude softened. European majors like BP and Shell have also moved sideways this week, indicating that investors remain wary of committing capital amid conflicting supply-demand signals. In contrast, transportation and manufacturing sectors—sensitive to input costs—have welcomed the recent stabilization in fuel prices. The near-term base case is for consolidation. With Brent likely to trade in the $80–85 range over the next few weeks, markets will look to key triggers such as U.S. inventory data, OPEC+ output guidance, and China’s industrial activity readings. If inventories continue to build while refinery margins stay weak, the downside could extend toward $78 on WTI. The alternative scenario hinges on geopolitical or supply disruptions: renewed conflict risk in the Middle East or unplanned outages could push Brent back above $88, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting a short-term rotation into energy equities. For investors, the key takeaway is that oil remains range-bound but directionally fragile. The balance between ample supply and strategic restocking is temporary, and volatility could return as macro data clarifies global demand trends. Portfolio managers should treat any rally toward the upper end of the current range as an opportunity to rebalance rather than chase momentum. A sustained breakout would require either clear evidence of demand recovery or a meaningful supply shock—conditions that remain absent for now.

Oil Prices Slide As OPEC Glut Fears Trump IEA's Demand Optimism -Oil prices are tumbling this morning, erasing yesterday's gain as OPEC and IEA unveiled their latest global supply/demand outlooks...OPEC flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies. Demand:

• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3mln BPD unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• In the OECD, oil demand s forecast to grow by about 0.1mln BPD in 2025 while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln BPD.
• In 2026. global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month's assessment.
• The OECD is forecast to grow by about 01mln BPD Y/Y. while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln Y/Y.

Supply:

• Non-DoC liquids product on (i.e. liquids production from countries net participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD Y/Y in 2025 revised up slightly by around 0.1mln BPD from last month s assessment, mainly due to received historical data n 2025.
• The main growth drivers are expected to be the US. Brazil. Canada, and Argentina
• The non-DoC liquids product on growth forecast for 2025 remains at 0 6mln BPD Y/Y. with Brazil. Canada. US and Argentina as the main growth drivers.

The report published this morning also indicated that the OPEC+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter.Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026.The organization cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.Heading into 2026, OPEC’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October. But, the International Energy Agency (IEA) leaned in hard in the demand side, stating that global demand for oil and gas will keep rising for the next 25 years unless governments change course, according to the Irish Times. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based IEA warns that on the world’s current trajectory, fossil fuel use will continue to climb with “no meaningful fall in CO2 emissions.”The new Current Policies scenario reflects a shift in governments’ priorities toward energy security and affordability, a slowdown in electric vehicle growth, and a “declining” focus on climate action. “Climate change is declining – and declining rapidly – in the international energy policy agenda,” said IEA head Fatih Birol.Until this year, the IEA had assumed fossil fuel demand would peak this decade — a position fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industry and the White House. The agency denied that U.S. pressure prompted the change, noting that it consulted all member governments.In July, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright called the IEA’s previous “peak oil” modelling “total nonsense,” adding that Washington might “reform the IEA or withdraw its support.” The U.S. provides 14 per cent of the agency’s budget.The Irish Times writes that major producers such as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE argue the world still needs oil and gas to meet rising power demand from artificial intelligence and improving living standards.The Current Policies scenario assumes existing laws remain unchanged for 25 years. Oil demand grows from 100 million barrels a day in 2024 to 113 million by 2050, while EV sales plateau at about 40 per cent by 2035. The Stated Policies case — reflecting announced but not enacted measures — sees oil peaking at 102 million b/d by 2030, with half of all cars sold in 2035 being electric.Both scenarios show strong gas demand and a peak in coal use this decade. Electricity demand rises roughly 40 per cent by 2035, or 50 per cent under a more ambitious Net Zero path, with 80 per cent of growth in solar-rich regions.“For some people it is very optimistic, for some people it is very pessimistic,” Birol said. “We just put the scenarios on the table.”Clean energy advocates note that renewables dominate future power generation in every case. “Nearly all new electricity demand – driven by manufacturing growth, AI, cooling needs, and the shift to electric cars – will be supplied by renewable energy,” said Bruce Douglas of the Global Renewables Alliance.Finally, we thought it noteworthy that OPEC’s secretariat hailed this shift by its counterparts at the IEA, which before today had in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade

Oil prices fall as oversupply concerns overshadow US government reopening - - Oil prices fell more than $2 on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit. Brent crude futures fell $2.15, or 3.3%, to $63.01 a barrel by 10:11 a.m. CST (1611 GMT) after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $2.07, or 3.39%, at $58.97 a barrel, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases - a shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026. “The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “I think the market wants to believe it’s balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA.” The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. The projection was a departure from the IEA’s previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges back to one that takes into account only existing policies. “Due to a modest downward revision of oil demand and higher non-OPEC+ supply in 3Q, the OPEC secretariat now also predicts a surplus for 3Q. That said, it is still much smaller compared to EIA and IEA,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year. The reopening of the U.S. government, however, could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday.

World Oil Supply Will Match Demand Next Year Due to Production Increases - The oil market sold off sharply on Wednesday, pressured by an OPEC’s monthly report. OPEC said world oil supply will match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, marking a shift from its earlier projection of a supply deficit. The crude market posted a high of $61.06 on the opening and sold off throughout the session, falling further upon the release of OPEC’s monthly report. The market extended its losses to $2.74 as it sold off to a low of $58.30 ahead of the close. It retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $55.96 to a high of $62.59. The December WTI contract settled down $2.55 at $58.49 and the January Brent contract settled down $2.45 at $62.71. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9.41 cents at $2.4816 and the RB market settling down 5.66 cents at $1.9554. The U.S. Energy Department said it bought 900,000 barrels of crude oil for nearly $56 million. Trafigura Trading will supply 600,000 barrels, while Energy Transfer Crude Marketing will supply 300,000 barrels. The contracts awarded are for deliveries in December and January to the Bryan Mound site in Texas.The International Energy Agency said global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predicting that the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals. In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will reach 113 million bpd by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption.OPEC said world oil supply is expected to match demand next year in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026. In its latest monthly report, OPEC said the world economy’s growth trend remained firm. Global demand growth in 2025 is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.3 million bpd. It also left its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 unchanged at 1.38 million bpd. It said that while demand is seen as steady, OPEC+ in October cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group’s output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan. OPEC forecast world demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026, down 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast. In its Short-Term Outlook, the EIA said U.S. oil production is expected to set a larger record this year than previously forecast, even as global oil supply outpaces fuel demand. The EIA expects U.S. oil output to average 13.6 million bpd both this year and in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years. The agency said the revision was due to higher than expected output in August. Oil output averaged 13.2 bpd last year, which was the prior record. U.S. oil demand for 2025 and 2026 is forecast at 20.5 million bpd, unchanged from a previous forecast. World oil output in 2025 is forecast to total 106 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 105.9 million bpd and output in 2026 is estimated to increase to 107.4 million bpd, up from a previous estimate of 107.2 million bpd. The EIA sees 2025 world oil demand at 104.1 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 104 million bpd and demand in 2026 is seen at 105.2 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 105.1 million bpd. The EIA said oil prices will fall through the end of 2025 and to average $55/barrel in 2026.

Oil Prices Dip Amid Rising US Inventories, OPEC Revises 2026 Forecast - Oil prices slipped on Thursday, continuing losses from the previous session, as reports of rising crude inventories in the United States heightened concerns that global supply is outpacing current fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $62.62 a barrel by 04:36 AM WAT, following a 3.8% drop on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.38 a barrel, extending Wednesday’s 4.2% fall. Market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) data, reported that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. Prices had already dropped more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasted that global oil supplies will slightly exceed demand in 2026, a reversal from its earlier projections of a deficit. The expected surplus is attributed to broader production increases by OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allied producers such as Russia. Adding to market caution, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release official inventory data later Thursday. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected that U.S. oil production will hit record levels this year, surpassing previous estimates, and that global oil inventories will continue to rise through 2026 as production growth outpaces fuel demand. The combined reports have intensified bearish sentiment among investors, putting further downward pressure on oil prices.

WTI Holds Gains Despite Big Crude Build, New Record US Crude Production - Oil prices are bouncing modestly off of yesterday's ugly drop driven by OPEC+'s outlook for a sizable surplus (glut) ahead. The IEA also flagged a deteriorating outlook for a sixth consecutive month, saying in a report on Thursday that supply will exceed demand by just over four million barrels a day next year. “There’s a lot of oil supply that’s coming back from the OPEC+ countries,” Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television. “There’s a period of time when it would appear we’re going to see more supply coming into the market than demand will be able to absorb.” At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. An oil trading firm that’s a unit of Russian oil giant Lukoil is starting to terminate jobs with days to go until sanctions fully kick in. “The latest round of sanctions appear significant and there’s clear risk to supply,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. That, coupled with Ukraine attacks against Moscow’s energy infrastructure, has helped to support fuel prices and offer a support to oil markets otherwise weighed down by oversupply fears. Overnight, API reported a modest crude build. Quick reminder that this week’s data won’t include the effect of the US government shutdown on aviation and, therefore, jet fuel demand and inventories. That will come in next week’s data after airlines began curtailing flights on Nov. 7. API:

• Crude +1.3mm
• Cushing -43k
• Gasoline -1.4mm
• Distillates +944k

DOE

• Crude +6.413mm - biggest build since July
• Cushing -346k
• Gasoline -945k
• Distillates -637k

Crude inventories surged higher for the second week in a row (biggest build since July), modestly offset by small drawdowns for products (down for six straight weeks)...The last two weeks have lifted US crude stocks to their highest in five months, but we note on a seasonal basis, it continues to lag recent years... US Crude production surged by over 200k b/d last week to a new record high despite the ongoing slide in the rig count... WTI is holding on top its modest gains off yesterday's plunge lows for now... The bearish outlook for next year has triggered a key indicator - WTI’s prompt spread - to sink into contango... Graphics Source: Bloomberg

Crude Moves Up as Oversupply Pressures Persist - The oil market on Thursday retraced some of Wednesday’s sharp losses as the market weighed concerns about global oversupply and the sanctions against Russia’s Lukoil. The market remained pressured in overnight trading after OPEC on Wednesday said global oil supplies would slightly exceed demand in 2026. The IEA has also raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly report, signaling a larger surplus in 2026. The crude market sold off to a low of $58.12 before it retraced some of its losses and traded to a high of $59.21 early in the morning. The market later gave up some of its gains ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report and remained under pressure in light of the EIA showing a large build in crude stocks of over 6.4 million barrels. The December WTI contract settled up 20 cents at $58.69 and the January Brent contract settled up 30 cents at $63.01. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.69 cents at $2.4647 and the RB market settling up 43 points at $1.9597. The EIA said U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 945,000 barrels to 205.1 million barrels in the week ending November 13th, the lowest level since November 2014. Gasoline stocks in the U.S. East Coast fell to a three-year low of 49.4 million barrels. The IEA raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report, signaling a deeper surplus in 2026. The agency expects global oil supply to grow by around 3.1 million bpd in 2025 now and 2.5 million bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd from its previous estimate. The IEA raised its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 790,000 bpd from a previous forecast of 710,000 bpd and its 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 770,000 bpd, up from a previous forecast of 700,000 bpd. With supply outpacing demand, the IEA’s November report implies that in 2026 total oil supply will be 4.09 million bpd higher than total demand, up from an implied surplus of 3.97 million bpd in its last monthly report.JPMorgan said around 1.4 million bpd of Russian oil or almost a third of the country’s seaborne exporting potential, remain in tankers as unloading slows due to U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. JPMorgan said with a cut-off date of November 21st for receiving oil supplied by the sanctioned companies, unloading cargoes could become significantly more challenging thereafter.Bloomberg reported that the world oil markets are oversupplied and it is most obvious in the Americas, especially the U.S. It noted the futures curve for WTI crude is in a contango structure, suggesting supply is exceeding demand for prompt barrels. Also, U.S. crude exports are high, with overseas crude shipments in October increasing to the highest level since July 2024. Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to grow to 113 million bpd in 2040 from 103.5 million bpd in 2024, driven by increasing energy needs and ongoing challenges in low-carbon technology and infrastructure. It expects solid annual average demand growth of 900,000 bpd in 2025-2030 before slowing to 100,000 bpd by 2040.

Oil Prices Soar 2.75% After Ukraine Strike On Major Russian Export Hub | Oil prices jumped in early Asian trade on Friday morning as markets responded to renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most significant oil export hubs, triggered renewed fears of supply disruptions. At the time of writing, WTI had risen 2.71% to $60.28... While Brent was trading at $64.54. The attacks damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members aboard the vessel, Russian regional authoritiesconfirmed.Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles. The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”If Ukraine continues to press its deep-strike campaign and Russia faces rolling or compounding infrastructure losses, the supply risk to global oil markets could rise meaningfully.Russian oil supply is being further suppressed byrenewed U.S. sanctions, most notably new restrictions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prohibiting transactions with the companies as Washington increases pressure on Moscow. The broader oil market outlook, however, remains bearish, with U.S. crude inventories rising and multiplewarnings of a severe glut in 2026.

Ukrainian attack halts oil exports from Russia's Novo, affecting 2% of global supply, sources say (Reuters) - Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk temporarily suspended oil exports - equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global supply - on Friday, according to industry sources, after a Ukrainian missile and drone attack. The attack was one of the biggest on Russian oil-exporting infrastructure in recent months. It follows a ramping-up of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries since August, part of an attempt by Kyiv to degrade Moscow's ability to finance its war. Global oil prices rallied by more than 2% on supply fears after the attack. Long-range Ukrainian air and sea drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted Russian oil infrastructure this year, targeting Baltic and Black Sea ports, a trunk pipeline system, and a number of oil refineries. Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had fired Neptune cruise missiles and used various types of strike drones in the attack on Novorossiysk "as part of efforts to reduce the military and economic potential of the Russian aggressor". Ukraine said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility in nearby Engels overnight. Russian pipeline oil monopoly Transneft has also been forced to suspend supplies to the port of Novorossiysk, the sources told Reuters. The company declined to comment. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports oil from Kazakhstan through the neighbouring Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, suspended oil loadings for a few hours and then resumed them when the air alert was lifted, sources said. It plans to export 1.45 million barrels per day this month from the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, around 15 kilometres (9 miles) southwest of Novorossiysk. Debris from the drones fell on the terrain of Russian grain terminal NKHP, which was working normally, Interfax news agency reported, citing director general Yury Medvedev. Russian officials said Friday's attack had also damaged a docked ship, apartment buildings and an oil depot in Novorossiysk, injuring three of the vessel's crew members. Aftermath of a drone attack in Novorossiysk Delo, a transport and logistics group, said drone debris had fallen onto a container terminal in Novorossiysk, but that its operations continued as usual. British maritime security company Ambrey said a crane sustained damage, and so did several containers. It said a non-sanctioned container ship alongside the terminal suffered some collateral damage, while no crew members were injured as they sheltered in a safe muster point within the vessel. ' Russian crude oil shipments via Novorossiysk's Sheskharis terminal totalled 3.22 million tonnes, or 761,000 barrels a day, in October, according to industry sources. For the first 10 months of the year, the figure was 24.716 million tonnes. The sources told Reuters that a total of 1.794 million tonnes of oil products had been exported through Novorossiysk in October and oil product exports for January-October totalled 16.783 million tonnes. According to three industry sources, the Ukrainian attack hit two oil berths at Sheskharis. The damage was inflicted on berth 1 and berth 1A, which handle 40,000-deadweight-ton and 140,000-deadweight-ton tankers respectively. Two of the sources said the Sierra Leone-flagged Arlan oil tanker was also hit during the attack. . "Overnight, more than 170 people and 50 pieces of equipment dealt with the aftermath of the attack, quickly extinguishing fires and assisting residents," Three injured crew members of the damaged boat were being treated in hospital, Kondratyev said. Local officials later said that a fire at an oil depot at the Sheskharis terminal, which handles crude oil and oil product exports, had been extinguished. Coastal structures had also been damaged, they said, without providing details. The Ukrainian statement said damage was also inflicted on a Russian S-400 air defence system and missile storage facility, causing a detonation and a fire. Reuters could not independently confirm those details.

Oil Jumps After Russia Halts Exports From Major Oil Hub -- Oil prices jumped around 1.5% Friday morning after a Ukrainian strike on Russia's main Black Sea port forced the suspension of oil loading operations. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery jumped $1.01 to $59.70 barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent for January delivery rose $0.87 to $63.88 bbl. December RBOB gasoline futures edged up $0.0175 to $1.9772 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures advanced $0.0651 to $2.5298 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, down 0.080 points to 98.970 against a basket of foreign currencies. Ukrainian attacks reportedly damaged an oil depot and a vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. The port is one of Russia's main oil export hubs, loading more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil exports. It also houses the terminal for most seaborne Kazakh crude oil exports, amounting to some 1.5 million bpd. While Russia suspended exports from the port, the terminal handling Kazakh exports seems to be unaffected. The extent of the damage and duration of the export pause remain unclear, although the newest attack fueled supply risk concerns that added to the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have so far mostly affected the downstream sector, leading to fuel shortages and fuel export bans, but barely impacting crude oil supply. In its monthly oil market report published Thursday, the International Energy Agency flagged elevated risks to Russian crude oil supply posed by fresh U.S. and U.K. sanctions on the country's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, and threats of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy. While Russian crude oil export volumes have so far proven resilient to sanctions, the IEA did flag rapidly swelling volumes of Russian oil on water as some cargoes struggle to find buyers ahead of the new sanctions coming into force on Nov. 21. At the same time, the Paris-based energy watchdog raised its forecast on next year's global oil surplus to 4.09 million bpd from a prior 3.97 million bpd. This was despite OPEC+ halting output increases in the first quarter of 2026, citing historically low demand growth versus healthy output growth in non-OPEC oil production. The report also noted that global inventories expanded for the ninth consecutive month in October. In the U.S., crude oil inventories grew more than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported a 6.4 million bbl build to commercial crude oil stocks in the week ending Nov. 7. At 427.6 million bbl, inventories were 11.6 million bbl higher than two weeks earlier.

Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than 2% higher on Friday as Russia's port of Novorossiisk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that hit an oil depot in the Russian energy hub, stoking supply concerns. Brent crude futures settled up $1.38, or 2.19%, at $64.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.40, or 2.39%, at $60.09 a barrel. Brent rose 1.2% on the week, and WTI posted a weekly gain of around 0.6%. Friday's attack damaged a ship in port, apartment blocks and an oil depot in Novorossiisk, injuring three of the vessel's crew, Russian officials said. "The hit on that Russian terminal was huge and seems to have had a bigger impact than previous attacks," The Russian port of Novorossiisk paused oil exports, equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global supply, and oil pipeline monopoly Transneft suspended crude supplies to the outlet, two industry sources told Reuters. "The intensity of these attacks has increased; it's much more often. Eventually, they could hit something that causes lasting disruption," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. Ukraine on Friday said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility in nearby Engels overnight. Investors are trying to assess the impact of the latest attacks and what they mean for Russian supply longer term, he said. Investors are also watching the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil supply and trade flows. Britain on Friday issued a special licence allowing businesses to continue working with two Bulgarian subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian oil firm Lukoil, as the Bulgarian government seized control of the assets. The U.S. imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21 as part of efforts to bring the Kremlin to peace talks over Ukraine. About 1.4 million bpd of Russia's oil, or almost a third of seaborne export potential, has been added to stocks held on tankers as unloading slows due to the U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, JPMorgan said on Thursday. Unloading cargoes could become much more challenging after the November 21 cut-off to receive oil supplied by the companies, the bank added. Meanwhile, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States rose by 3 to 417 in the week to November 14, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Iran Seizes Oil Tanker in Gulf of Oman -Iran seized on Friday an oil tanker en route to Singapore after it passed the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East in the first major escalation of the tensions in the region since the Iran-Israel war in June. The Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Talara was seized by Iranian forces in the Gulf of Oman after having passed the Strait of Hormuz from Ajman in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), heading to Singapore. Iran’s forces diverted the ship from the international waters to the Iranian territorial waters, a U.S. defense official told AP on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. The vessel was travelling near Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates when it lost contact with Columbia Shipmanagement, its Cyprus-based manager, the company told Bloomberg.The tanker Talara had loaded high sulfur gasoil from the UAE’s northeastern deep-water port of Hamriyah in October, according to vessel-tracking data cited by Bloomberg. The Talara has passed the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and was turning to the Gulf of Oman when the incident took place. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the UK Navy’s liaison in the region, said on Friday that it had received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, the UAE. Emirates Authorities are investigating while vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, it said. A possible “state activity” forced the Talara to turn into Iranian territorial waters, according to UKMTO cited by AP. Iran has not yet acknowledged or commented on the incident, which reignites the tensions in the Middle East that the oil market seemed to have forgotten in recent months. In June, with the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and the Israel-Iran war, the oil market was on edgefearing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global daily oil consumption passes.

Ukraine Suffers Power Cuts After Russia’s Heaviest Air Barrage in Months - Kyiv and many Ukrainian regions faced extensive power cuts and outages as crews struggled to repair infrastructure battered by Russian air attacks.Power was reduced in most regions for eight to 16 hours on November 9, state energy provider Ukrenergo said, adding that consumption restrictions were scheduled for November 10 as well. "The reason for the introduction of restrictions is the consequences of massive Russian missile and drone attacks on energy facilities," the company said. "It is difficult to recall such a [large] number of direct strikes on energy facilities since the beginning of the invasion," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address that "repair crews are working almost around the clock in most regions." "Restoration efforts are ongoing, and although the situation is difficult, thousands of people are involved in stabilizing the system and repairing the damage," he added. Even before the onset of cold weather across Ukraine, Russia had intensified its campaign to take out the country's power grid, as well as natural gas facilities and pipelines, in an effort to freeze and demoralize Ukrainians. At least seven people were killed and an unknown number of others wounded in the Russian attacks on November 7, prompting Zelenskyy to again urge Kyiv's allies to punish Russia and pressure President Vladimir Putin. "Any [further] weakening…only encourages Putin to prolong the war, inflict more damage on our country, our people, and others around the world," he said on November 8. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Russia had targeted substations that provided power to two nuclear facilities. "These were not accidental, but well-planned strikes. Russia is deliberately jeopardizing Europe's nuclear safety," he said in a post to X. He called for an urgent meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, to respond to the "unacceptable risks." IAEA director Rafael Grossi warned of the danger of military strikes on nuclear plant electrical substations. "I continue to call for maximum military restraint in order to maintain nuclear safety and avoid an accident with serious radiological consequences,” he said in a statement. Grossi also said Ukraine's biggest nuclear facility, in Zaporizhzhya, had regained access to back-up electricity from the grid for the first time in six months. The plant, which is under Russian control, has seen interruptions that have endangered critical plant infrastructure, like pumps that supply cooling water. Russia launched more than 450 drones and 45 missiles in the November 8 barrage, Ukrainian officials said. Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said it had launched "a massive strike with high-precision long-range air, ground and sea-based weapons" and claimed it targeted weapon production and energy facilities in Ukraine.Power cuts were also undertaken in the Poltava region under a special emergency outage schedule ordered by Ukrenergo, with Kremenchuk -- a city of 200,000 people -- reporting a complete blackout, prompting the opening of temporary public hubs offering heat, power, Internet, water, and basic aid.In Dnipro, a Russian drone strike hit a nine?story residential building, with at least three people reported killed. A two-day mourning has been declared.Russian attacks also cut power to subway stations in Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said. Subways and trams have been fully stopped and water supplies have also been disrupted, he said in a post to Telegram. For its part, Ukraine has conducted its own near-nightly drone barrage of Russian energy facilities, a campaign that has sharply reduced Russia's ability to produce gasoline and other refined oil products. In Russian border regions, like Belgorod and Kursk, Ukraine has hit electricity infrastructure, along with municipal heating plants.More than 20,000 people were reported without power in several border regions on November 9, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. Unconfirmed reports said that the municipal heating plant in Voronezh, about 200 kilometers east of the Russian border, had been hit by Ukrainian drones.The Defense Ministry reported that more than 40 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight, mostly over the Bryansk region. The Defense Ministry made no mention of the Voronezh region.Kyiv has urged the United States to supply long?range Tomahawk missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia but President Donald Trump has repeatedly rebuffed the requests. Moscow warned Washington against sending Tomahawks, with Putin calling the move a "completely new stage of escalation" in US-Russia relations.As Ukraine battled with the latest attacks on its energy sector, its forces were also struggling to hold the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk.Ukrainian authorities have acknowledged that the situation in the region is "difficult" but have denied Russian claims that Pokrovsk is surrounded.The city has become the fiercest area on Ukraine's front line this year, with fighting there resembling some of the bloodiest and longest battles of the war.Ukrainian military expert Oleksiy Hetman told RFE/RL that while the situation is growing difficult, Ukrainian forces still have strongholds prepared west of the city, which would allow them to repel further Russian assaults.

Ukraine Claims Fresh Strike on Saratov Refinery - Ukraine claimed new strikes on two Russian refineries as military authorities in Kyiv press ahead with attacks on Moscow's oil-processing industry to curtail its energy revenues. Ukraine's General Staff said it struck Rosneft PJSC's Saratov refinery in Russia's Volga region for a second time this month, triggering explosions and "a massive fire," with the extent of damage still being assessed. Later on Tuesday, it claimed a separate attack on the Orsk refinery in the Orenburg region near Kazakhstan that damaged a key processing unit. Bloomberg News was not able to independently verify the strikes or the extent of the damage. Rosneft and ForteInvest JSC, which owns the Orsk refinery, didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Saratov regional governor Roman Busargin said unnamed industrial facilities, located in the Zavodskoy area of Saratov, were damaged in the overnight drone attack, providing no further details. The Saratov refinery is located in the same area. Orenburg regional governor Evgeny Solntsev also cited damage to an industrial facility, without providing details. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian oil infrastructure - from refineries to crude pipelines and sea terminals - in recent months in an effort to reduce the energy revenue that helps Moscow finance its invasion. Since the beginning of August, Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil-processing facilities nearly 40 times, compared with 21 strikes between January and July, according to public statements and data gathered by Bloomberg. That’s also more than the total number of Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian downstream segment last year. As a result of refinery outages, fuel prices at the Russian commodity exchange set historic highs and gasoline shortages emerged in several regions across the nation. In response, the Russian government imposed a ban on gasoline exports until year-end and introduces some restrictions on exports of diesel. Some of Russia's refineries were able to quickly repair the damage in the recent weeks, yet the nation's oil-processing volumes still remain below the seasonal norm. The Saratov refinery has the capacity to process about 140,000 barrels of crude a day and is a key supplier of gasoline and diesel to regions in the western, most populated parts of Russia. It has been a target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year, most recently on Nov. 3. The Orsk facility, last attacked early October, has a design capacity to process about 130,000 barrels a day and produces several types of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

Nordic and Baltic States Pledge $500 Million To Purchase US Weapons for Ukraine - A group of eight Baltic and Nordic NATO states announced on Thursdaythat they were pooling together funds to pledge $500 million to the NATO scheme that funds US arms shipments to Ukraine, known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL initiative.According to numbers released by Ukraine earlier this month, the new package funded by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden brings the total in PURL funds pledged by NATO countries to about $3.3 billion. The initiative first began over the summer following a White House meeting between President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The US started actually shipping weapons to Ukraine using the PURL fundsin September. The US and NATO have not detailed the contents of each PURL package, but reports say it is primarily air defenses, including Patriot missile interceptors, missiles for the HIMARS rocket systems, and other types of munitions.The Trump administration has also continued to ship weapons packages to Ukraine that were previously approved by the Biden administration and has approved several weapons sales for Ukraine, including one that’s partially funded by US military aid and will arm Ukrainian forces with long-range cruise missiles. US weapons shipments to Ukraine were reportedly slowed by the government shutdown, which just ended this week. The news of the latest PURL funding comes as Ukraine is losing territory to advancing Russian forces in both eastern and southern Ukraine, and peace talks between the two sides remain stalled.

Ukrainian Justice and Energy Ministers Forced To Resign as Corruption Scandal Rocks Ukraine - Ukraine’s energy and justice ministers have been forced to resign amid a corruption probe by Ukraine’s anti-graft watchdogs, which found that close allies of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have skimmed about $100 million from Ukraine’s energy sector.The revelations come as Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts and leaving the government scrambling to make repairs and get more funding for its energy sector from its Western backers.The findings were the result of a 15-month investigation by Ukraine’s two state corruption watchdogs, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP). Earlier this year, Zelensky attempted to curb the powers of NABU and SAP, but reversed the move after facing significant backlash.In response to the investigation, Zelensky called for the resignation of Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. “This is, among other things, a matter of trust. If there are accusations, they must be addressed. The decision on suspension from office is prompt, as swift as possible. I have asked the Prime Minister of Ukraine to ensure that these ministers submit their resignations,” Zelensky said in a video address on Wednesday.The Ukrainian leader said that he supports “every investigation carried out by law enforcement and anti-corruption officials, and this is an absolutely clear and consistent position for everyone.”While Zelensky himself is not implicated in the investigation, one of his business partners is. Timur Mindich, a Ukrainian businessman and co-owner of Zelensky’s Kvartal 95 media production company, is alleged by SAP to be the ringleader of the scheme to get kickbacks from the Ukrainian energy sector. Galushchenko, the now-resigned justice minister, has been accused of helping Minich launder money, though he has not been charged.POLITICO reported that Minich was tipped off about the investigation and has fled to Israel. So far, five out of seven people allegedly involved in the network have been arrested.The investigation involved 1,000 hours of wiretapping, and, according to The Associated Press, two recorded discussions involved delays in building defensive fortifications for energy sites and waiting for a more profitable alternative. The conversations mentioned giving contracts to build defensive protections to a known company, and later to increase kickbacks up to 15%.Ukraine has long been notorious for corruption, but the US and its NATO allies sought to downplay the issue following the 2022 Russian invasion as they poured hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons and other kinds of aid into the country.

LIVE BLOG: ‘Everything in Gaza Has Been Destroyed’ as Israel Continues to Violate Ceasefire – Day 769 - The Khan Yunis Municipality said on Wednesday that everything in Gaza has been destroyed, as Israeli forces continued to violate the ceasefire. Despite the truce, Israeli air and artillery attacks have persisted across the enclave, leaving no area untouched..Since October 7, 2023, Israel has killed 69,187 and injured 170,703 others, the majority of whom are women and children, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza.

Officials Fear Permanent Israeli Occupation of More Than Half of Gaza - Reuters reported on Tuesday that European officials and other sources are concerned that, without more progress on the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal, the so-called “yellow line” dividing Israeli-occupied Gaza from the rest of the Strip will become a de facto border, meaning there will be an indefinite Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territory.The report comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a plan to allow reconstruction only in the Israeli-occupied side of Gaza, which accounts for about 58% of the territory. The Atlantic has reported that the US is considering building housing on the Israeli side of the yellow line that could be used by Palestinians who have been “screened” and approved by Israeli intelligence.Arab countries have been warning against the plan as they fear it will lead to a permanent Israeli occupation and expressed skepticism about the idea of Palestinians being willing to live on the Israeli side.“Palestinians may not want to live under the rule of Hamas, but the idea that they’ll be willing to move to live under Israeli occupation and be under control of the party they also see as responsible for killing 70,000 of their brethren is fantastical,” an Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel last week.The Atlantic report said that less than 2% of Gaza’s population lives on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Israel is backing at least four anti-Hamas militias and gangs behind the yellow line, and the US has reportedly been in contact with the groups about “enforcing order” in Gaza. One of the gangs, led by Yasser Abu Shabab, who admitted in 2024 that his group was looting aid trucks, has members with ties to ISIS. Israeli media reported on Tuesday that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who has been pushing the plan to divide Gaza into two, met with Abu Shabab, but the State Department denied that the meeting took place. The reports said that the US believes the Abu Shabab gang could help facilitate the movement of an estimated 150 Hamas militants trapped in Rafah on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Under the US ceasefire plan, Israel is required to withdraw further from the yellow line as an international force is deployed into Gaza and as the Strip is “demilitarized.” But there has been little progress on forming the international force, as the countries willing to participate want more clarity on the mission and don’t want to end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel. Hamas has also ruled out the idea of disarming without the establishment of a Palestinian state, an idea the Israeli government has repeatedly rejected.

Palestinian Bodies Show Signs of Organ Harvesting, Says Surgeon Ghassan Abu Sitta -The bodies of Palestinians recently returned by Israel appear “highly indicative of organ harvesting,” according to British-Palestinian surgeon, Dr. Ghassan Abu Sitta.“The bodies show clearly surgically removed lungs, heart, kidneys and liver – done in a professional, surgical way, using sharp bone saws, causing zero damage to surrounding tissues,” Abu Sitta told Al-Jazeera earlier this week, the Quds News Network (QNN) reported. His conclusions are based on photographs that he saw of the bodies, which the Palestinian Ministry of Health received from the Israeli army. In an interview with @AJEnglish @AJArabic , Dr. @GhassanAbuSitt1 revealed medical evidence indicating that vital organs — including hearts, lungs, kidneys, and corneas — were surgically stolen by the Israeli occupation from Palestinian martyrs in #Gaza. … pic.twitter.com/yu18JeQb7M“The bodies show clearly surgically removed lungs, heart, kidneys and liver – done in a professional, surgical way, using sharp bone saws, causing zero damage to surrounding tissues,” he said. The UK-based surgeon said the bodies “also had liquid nitrogen burns on their skin, but no other injuries. It’s unlikely the organs were retrieved post-mortem.” Liquid nitrogen is a chemical used to prevent tissue degradation. He added: “All of these bodies belonged to Palestinians whose families said they had been imprisoned alive. So all of this is highly indicative of organ harvesting.” Abu Sitta noted that “every organ was removed as if ready for transplant.”The photographs were taken on October 17, shortly after Israel handed over 120 bodies, he said. Abu Sitta’s comments support reports by the Gaza Government Media Office director, Dr. Ismail al-Thawabta, who also reported that Israeli forces stole organs from Palestinian corpses and called for an immediate international investigation, QNN reported. Al-Thawabta reportedly said dozens of bodies were found mutilated and missing vital parts, including eyes, limbs, and internal organs.“When we examined the bodies, we found that large parts were missing, there were half bodies, bodies without heads, without limbs, without eyes, and without internal organs,” he was quoted as saying.Gaza’s Health Ministry confirmed on Monday that 315 bodies have been received from Israeli authorities since the US-brokered ceasefire took effect last month. The Ministry confirmed that 38 unidentified bodies were buried, raising the total number of unidentified bodies buried to 182.Gaza’s forensic department has previously said that most Palestinian bodies returned from Israel were blindfolded and bound, providing evidence of torture and execution before death.Several bodies of Palestinians whose remains had been held by Israeli occupation forces and could not be identified were buried in a mass grave in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. pic.twitter.com/58zsIoe2wg— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) November 10, 2025Hamas said in a statement on Monday that Israel has “handed over dozens of Palestinian bodies that had been brutally mutilated, including bodies crushed under tank treads, and others who were field-executed while bound and blindfolded.”“This constitutes a fully-fledged war crime and a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law,” the statement added.Gaza’s Government Media Office has called “for the urgent establishment of an independent international commission of inquiry to investigate these heinous crimes and to hold Israeli leaders accountable for the war crimes committed against our people in the Gaza Strip.”Mohammed Zaqout, director of hospitals in Gaza’s Health Ministry, also spoke about the “clear signs of torture” found on the bodies, QNN reported.He said: “One body shows signs of hanging with a rope still wrapped around the neck, blindfolds around the eyes, and bound hands. That martyr was placed as is and sent to us.”Citing the Palestine Center for Prisoners Studies, QNN reported that the deaths of more than half of the Palestinian prisoners in detention were a result of torture and abuse. Due to the sharp rise in arrests, particularly of Palestinians from Gaza, Israel has opened new detention and interrogation centers operated directly by its military, the report stated.According to the Center, these facilities have become sites of “systematic torture and mistreatment, in clear violation of international law and human rights,” the report added.A new report published on Friday in the leading peer-reviewed medical journal The BMJ details extensive evidence of torture and inhumane treatment of Palestinians held in Israeli detention sites since 2023, including accusations of complicity by Israeli health workers. The report, co-authored by physicians and medical experts including Dr. Sara el-Solh and Norwegian doctor and professor Mads Gilbert, cites multiple documented cases of physical, psychological, and sexual violence against Palestinian detainees.

Land Grab Feared as IDF Builds Wall Deep Into Southern Lebanon - Amid Israel’s ongoing military escalation against Lebanon, there is mounting concern that the Israeli military intends to effectively seize significant parts of the southern Lebanese border area, as troops are constructing a wall in the area near Maroun El Ras and Aitaroun, several kilometers into Lebanese territory. The move is being presented by Israeli media as an attempt to further secure one of the IDF’s “strategic sites,” military outposts they built inside Lebanon after last year’s war and which they refused to withdraw from.This ties into military operations inside Aitaroun, where Israeli troops blew up multiple homes inside the border town. The IDF similarly blew up homes in Houla on Monday, which they claimed was because Hezbollah was using the homes.The border wall construction comes as the US is pressuring Lebanon to enter into direct talks with Israel, talks that Lebanon has already agreed to and which Israel has recently rejected out of hand. This suggests that even if the talks do end up happening, ending the Israeli occupation is a non-starter.Meanwhile, Israeli attacks only continue to escalate, as we come up on the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire that was meant to end the Israeli invasion. The IDF has claimed 15 Hezbollah members killed, without providing evidence, and Lebanese firefighters and civil defense forces struggle to contain fires set across the south by Israeli strikes.While Hezbollah has thus far not fired any rockets at Israel since the ceasefire began, the growing escalation and Israeli demands for the Lebanon government to crack down on Hezbollah may be bringing that, and any pretense of a ceasefire, to an end.Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned the group will not agree to disarmament during the active Israeli attack, adding the current situation “cannot continue” and the group remains ready to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty.