US distillates supplies rose by the most since January 3rd 2025; total oil + oil product inventories increased by the most since February 10, 2023 and left total inventories at the highest since August 5 2022
US oil prices finished higher for the third time in four weeks after Israel attacked Qatar, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, Ukraine attacked Russian oil infrastructure, and Russian drones attacked Poland….after falling 3.3% to $61.87 a barrel last week on reports that OPEC would hike its output again in October, and on a surprise increase in US crude inventories, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery rose in early overseas trading on Monday, after OPEC+, meeting on Sunday, agreed to slow the pace of output increases from October amid expectations of weaker global demand, then climbed sharply after intensifying Russia-Ukraine hostilities reignited fears of supply disruptions, but steadied in New York trading as traders weighed an OPEC+ decision to raise production at a modest against Saudi Aramco's reduction in selling prices of its crude to Asia, and settled 39 cents higher at $62.26 a barrel as the OPEC production increase was seen as modest and traders priced in the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude…oil prices rose almost 2% in Asian trading on Tuesday, after Israel carried out a rare and brazen strike on Hamas peace negotiators in Doha, Qatar, an escalation that rattled global energy markets, and rallied to a high of $63.67 by mid-day in New York, supported by the modest OPEC+ output increase, expectations that China would continue stockpiling oil, and concerns over potential new sanctions against Russia, following the news of Israel expanding its military campaign, but settled up just 37 cents at $62.63 a barrel, giving up the majority of its early gains after the United States assured Doha that such an attack would not happen again on its soil….oil prices rose modestly on global markets Wednesday following the Israeli strike on Qatar soil, on news that Trump had urged the European Union to impose a 100 per cent tariff on China and India to curb their purchases of Russian crude, and held those gains in early US trading in spite of an EIA report showing across-the-board builds in U.S. oil and product inventories, as traders weighed Trump’s latest tariff threats on Russian crude buyers, the fallout from Israel’s strike in Doha, and the outlook for US interest rate cuts, and settled $1.04 higher at $63.67 a barrel as traders worried about possible supply disruptions after Poland downed Russian drones in its airspace and the U.S. pushed for new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil…. oil prices eased slightly on global markets on Thursday, as overseas traders absorbed fresh data showing a sharp rise in U.S. inventories and production levels, raising concerns over weakening demand in the world’s largest oil consumer, and then traded lower on US markets as concerns over weaker U.S. demand and global oversupply offset concerns over the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, and settled $1.30 lower at $62.37 a barrel after The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply would rise more rapidly than expected this year, due to the planned output increases by OPEC+…oil prices rose by nearly 2% in Asia on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loadings, outweighing downward price pressure from oversupply concerns and weaker U.S. demand risks, and then were pushed lower in early US trading on concerns over swelling inventories and sluggish demand, before they recovered to settle 32 cents higher at $62.69 a barrel, as traders watched for sanctions or tariffs from the Trump administration aimed at reducing use of Russian crude by India and China, and thus end up 1.3% higher for the week…
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the sixth time in eight weeks, on reduced demand from LNG export plants and on a larger than expected injection of natural gas into storage….after rising 1.7% to $3.048 per mmBTU last week as falling gas production outweighed weak demand fundamentals, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for October delivery opened 9.2 cents higher on Monday. as the threat of a possible tropical storm faded over the weekend, but trended lower through the morning as fundamentals remained bearish, and settled with a 4.2 cent gain at $3.090 per mmBTU, as weather models tended to be less bearish than they were on Friday….October natural gas opened 2.2 cents higher Tuesday, but pulled back to $3.046 by 11:45 AM, then rebounded into the afternoon as traders focused on additional cooling demand in the latest forecasts, and settled 2.7 cents higher at $3.117 per mmBTU as cooling demand lingered while LNG demand was expected to rise…but natural gas prices opened 10 cents lower on Wednesday as LNG demand faded, then recovered to an intraday high of $3.070 by 10:10AM before moving lower again to settle down 8.8 cents at $3.029 per mmBTU as inconsistent LNG feed gas nominations and robust supply kept bulls at bay….natural gas futures were flat in early trading on Thursday as the market sought direction, with weather models trending warmer and LNG feed gas remaining weak, then pulled back after the weekly storage injection report fell on the high side of expectations, and faded over the balance of the session to settle 9.5 cents lower at $2.934 per mmBTU, as the sizable EIA storage report met expectations and reinforced bearish sentiment….natural gas futures traded sideways early in Friday’s session, as traders digested swelling inventories, evolving forecasts, and subdued LNG feed gas demand, then held below $3 during afternoon trading as cash prices at the Waha Hub in south Texas plunged into deeply negative territory, and settled seven-tenths of a cent higher at $2.941 per mmBTU, as warmer forecasts offset a decline in LNG export flows, but still finished 3.5% lower for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending September 5th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 71 cubic feet to 3,343 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 38 billion cubic feet, or 1.1% less than the 3,381 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on September 5th of last year, but 188 billion cubic feet, or 6.0% more than the five-year average of 3,155 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 5th of September over the most recent five years….the 71 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 66 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, and was way more than the 36 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as well more than the average 56 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late August week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 5th indicated that after a big decrease in our oil exports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the seventeenth time in thirty-one weeks, and for the 34 time in sixty-one weeks, despite a decrease in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 471,000 barrels per day to average 6,271,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 508,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,139,000 barrels per day to average 2,745,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 3,526,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 5th, an average of 668,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 503,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 72,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 13,495,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,524,000 barrels per day during the September 5th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,818,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 5th, an average of 51,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 636,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending September 5th averaged a rounded 70,000 more barrels per day than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [-70,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… Moreover, since 518,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 588,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are useless…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 636,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 563,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 73,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,436,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.5% less than the 6,468,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 72,000 barrels per day higher at 13,423,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 58,000 barrels per day higher at 13,077,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 14,000 barrels per day higher at 418,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 94.9% of their capacity while processing those 16,818,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 5th, up from the 94.3% utilization rate of a week earlier, and a bit on the high side of the normal post-pandemic utilization rate for this time of year…. the 16,818,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 0.4% more than the 16,759,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending September 6th of 2024, but were 3.9% less than the 17,495,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending September 6th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 95.1%, which was within the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 285,000 barrels per day to 9,587,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 5th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 109,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 2.2% more than the 9,377,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending September 6th of last year, but 7.5% less than the gasoline production of 10,360,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending September 6th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 24,000 barrels per day to 5,229,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 36,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with this week’s production decrease, our distillates output was 0.4% more than the 5,209,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 6th of 2024, but 2.1% less than the 5,341,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending September 6th, 2019....
Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the first time in eight weeks and for the eighth time in twenty-eight weeks, increasing by 1,458,000 barrels to 219,997,000 barrels during the week ending September 5th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 3,795,000 barrels to a 9 month low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 609,000 barrels per day to 8,508,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 99,000 barrels per day to 681,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 11,000 barrels per day to 993,000 barrels per day….Even after twenty-two gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-one weeks, our gasoline supplies were only 0.7% below last September 6th’s gasoline inventories of 221,552,000 barrels, while they were back to the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with the decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 17th time in 36 weeks, and by the most since January 3rd, increasing by 4,715,000 barrels to 115,923,000 barrels during the week ending September 5th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 1,681,000 during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 391,000 barrels to 3,377,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 121,000 barrels per day to 217,000 barrels per day while our exports of distillates rose by 53,000 barrels per to 1,394,000 barrels per day... With 48 withdrawals from inventories over the past 84 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 3.5% below the 125,023,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 6th of 2024, and still about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the big drop in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, increasing by 2,415,000 barrels over the week, from 420,707,000 barrels on August 29th to 424,646,000 barrels on September 5th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,415,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories rose to 3% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were also about 27.8% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this September 5th were 1.3% above the 419,143,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on September 6th of 2024, and 1.0% more than the 420,592,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 8th of 2023, but were 0.6% less than the 427,191,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on September 2nd of 2022…
In addition to the big increases in inventories of gasoline, distillates and crude oil which we've just reviewed, inventories of kerosene-type jet fuel, fuel enthanol, residual oils, propane/propylene, and other oils all also increased this week.... as a result, the total of all U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including those in the SPR, increased by 15,944,000 barrels over the week, from 1,670,530,000 barrels on August 29th to 1,686,474,000 barrels on September 5th, the largest increase in our total oil and oil products inventories since February 10th, 2023...that left our total inventories at 1,686,474,000 barrels on September 5th, which was the largest total supply figure since August 5th, 2022...
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count was up by two over the week ending September 12th, the second increase in nine weeks, as rigs targeting oil increased by two, while rigs targeting natural gas were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 5th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (August 29th) and this week’s (September 5th) count, the third column shows last week’s August 29th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 13th of September, 2024…
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Oil spills into the Ohio River after boat overturns - (WTRF) Officials are on the scene of an oil spill in the Ohio River after a boat overturned. Crews at the scene say a dredge boat on the river overturned near Newell, West Virginia, around 11:30 pm on Wednesday. Officials say the vessel carrying the fuel can hold anywhere from 10 to 13,000 gallons and at this time they don’t know how much has spilled into the Ohio River. A curtain boom has placed around the dredger, and a river salvage company is also on scene. The U.S. Coast Guard’s Marine Safety Unit in Pittsburgh has been called out to assess a situation. At this time, the environmental impacts are unknown. The Coast Guard is working to determine how the incident occurred and how much damage was caused. Officials say no authorities in West Virginia were notified when the incident happened, but Newell and Chester Fire Departments have been dispatched. A dredge boat, or dredger, is a specialized vessel equipped with tools to excavate or scrape sediment and debris from the beds of waterways like rivers, lakes, and harbors. This is a developing story, refresh this story for any updates. UPDATE: The company that owns the vessel, Tri-State River Products, has contacted a private company to assist in the cleanup The U.S. Coast Guard and West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection are investigating the situation, and no environmental impacts are known at this point.
ODNR Rejects Marietta Hearing Request, Issues Injection Well Permit -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, Marietta, OH, officials, including the city’s Republican mayor, law director, water superintendent, and a majority of city council members, asked the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) Oil and Gas Chief Eric Vendel to deny a permit application from DeepRock Disposal Solutions for the Stephan #1 injection well, which would be the company’s fifth injection well in the area (see Marietta, OH Officials Ask ODNR to Deny Permit for Injection Well). City officials sent a letter to Vendel claiming the Stephan #1 well would be in close proximity to Marietta’s Source Water Protection Area, which serves 32,000 residents in multiple water systems. The letter says that “five disposal wells are too many.” The ODNR has responded…
Marietta, OH City Council Discusses Suing to Block Injection Well -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, Marietta, OH, officials, including the city’s Republican mayor, law director, water superintendent, and a majority of city council members, asked the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) Oil and Gas Chief Eric Vendel to deny a permit application from DeepRock Disposal Solutions for the Stephan #1 injection well, which would be the company’s fifth injection well in the area (see Marietta, OH Officials Ask ODNR to Deny Permit for Injection Well). Last week, the ODNR rejected Marietta’s appeal and went ahead and issued a permit (see ODNR Rejects Marietta Hearing Request, Issues Injection Well Permit). Marietta is now considering filing a lawsuit to block the project.
Greylock Pushes into Utica After 'Purely Opportunist' Wyoming Sale - (interview with transcript) Greylock Energy, which has legacy assets across the Appalachian Basin, has been actively hunting for leasehold opportunities in the Utica Shale in northeast Pennsylvania. While still in early stages of its Utica foray, President and CEO Kyle Mork said the company has adopted a ground game strategy of acquiring and then developing acreage. Far to the west, Greylock recently divested its Wyoming assets three years after acquiring them from a public operator. Although the assets increased the company’s Wyoming production by 25%, Mork said that knowing when to sell acreage can be as profitable as knowing when to buy. The divestiture helped Greylock keep its leverage down while and generating proceeds for future opportunities, including potential acquisitions in other areas including the Rockies— or really any basin, Mork said. Regardless of any opportunity or basin, the firm holds its value on smart and healthy growth for its investors. With inventory degradation increasingly a topic of industry conversation, Greylock is also positioning itself close to Tier 1 acreage and then optimizing operations well enough generate compelling returns. Mork discusses Greylock's operations and strategy with Hart Energy's Darren Barbee in this exclusive interview.
Driver injured after Jeep crash sparks natural gas fire near Atwood Lake --The Ohio State Highway Patrol is investigating a one-vehicle crash near Atwood Lake that triggered a natural gas fire Monday afternoon. The crash happened about 1:40 p.m. on State Route 212 near mile post 17 and the Atwood Lake spillway in Tuscarawas County, according to the New Philadelphia Post of the patrol. Troopers said a white 2007 Jeep Wrangler driven by a 44-year-old Scio woman was headed east when it went off the right side of the road and struck a gas line pump house. The impact ruptured gas lines inside the building and the Jeep became fully engulfed in flames. The fire spread to the pump house and scorched the surrounding area. The driver was able to escape the vehicle and get to safety, authorities said. She suffered minor injuries and was taken by Smith Ambulance to Union Hospital. Representatives from Enbridge Gas quickly located a shutoff valve near the scene and stopped the gas supply fueling the blaze. Northeast Ohio Gas, which services the line, also responded and assisted in containing the leak. The Ohio Department of Transportation helped with road closures and traffic control. The Highway Patrol was assisted by the Tuscarawas County Sheriff’s Office, Fairfield Township Fire Department, Sherrodsville Fire Department, Enbridge Gas, Northeast Ohio Gas and Keith’s Towing. The crash remains under investigation. The crash remains under investigation.
About 700 Carroll, Tuscarawas County residents without gas after crash; crews working to restore - More than 700 residents in Carroll and Tuscarawas counties are without natural gas service after a one-vehicle crash near Atwood Lake ruptured a pipeline facility and sparked a fire Monday afternoon, authorities said. The Ohio State Highway Patrol said the crash occurred about 1:40 p.m. on State Route 212 near milepost 17 and the Atwood Lake spillway in Tuscarawas County. A white 2007 Jeep Wrangler driven by a 44-year-old Scio woman went off the right side of the road and hit a gas-line pumphouse, rupturing lines inside the building. The Jeep caught fire and the blaze spread to the structure, scorching the surrounding area. The driver suffered minor injuries and was taken by Smith Ambulance to Union Hospital. Enbridge Gas representatives at the scene located a shutoff valve and stopped the flow feeding the blaze. Northeast Ohio Gas (NEO), which services the line, also assisted in containing the leak, officials said. NEO estimates roughly 700 to 750 customers are affected in Mineral City, Sherrodsville, Dellroy and smaller pockets of New Philadelphia and Roswell. The company has established a command center at the Dellroy Community Center, and additional crews are assisting with restoration work. “We’re working through individual meter shutoffs and beginning the restoration process, but we don’t have an estimated time yet,” said Christine Mitchell, a spokesperson for NEO, in a phone call with Jordan Miller News. She said the situation is safe and there is no danger to the community. The company said it expects to provide an update on service restoration soon but could not give a timeline. Carroll County Emergency Management Agency Director Tom Cottis said local officials are coordinating with state partners and utility crews to reach the largest number of customers as quickly as possible. The Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) handled road closures and traffic control following the crash. Assisting at the scene were the Tuscarawas County Sheriff’s Office, Fairfield Township Fire Department, Sherrodsville Fire Department, Enbridge Gas, Northeast Ohio Gas and Keith’s Towing. The crash remains under investigation by the Highway Patrol.
Shell to supply chemically recycled PE for specialty films - Specialty film producer Charter Next Generation has agreed to buy polyethylene (PE) produced by Shell Polymers using chemically recycled feedstock, for use in high-performance flexible packaging.In April, Freepoint Eco-Systems shipped its first rail car of pyrolysis oil (pyoil) from its Hebron, Ohio, plant to Shell’s Norco refining complex in Louisiana. The following month, Shellannounced it would use pyoil from Freepoint to make virgin-quality PE resin at its Monaca, Pennsylvania, facility.The pyrolysis process uses heat and pressure to break down discarded polyolefins into their building blocks for reuse in making virgin-quality plastics. Pyrolysis is one form of chemical recycling, which also is known as advanced recycling.“Advanced recycling represents one pathway toward achieving circularity in flexible packaging, especially for high-performance applications where functionality cannot be compromised,” said John Garnett, senior vice president of sustainability, technical and innovation at Charter Next Generation.In 2019, Shell announced its first use of pyoil to make new plastics and started up the Pennsylvania PE complex plant in 2022, leveraging the nearby Marcellus and Utica shale fields for natural gas feedstocks. The plant remains the first significant resin production built outside the Gulf Coast in at least 40 years. However, that isolation combined with lackluster global demand for PE has led Shell Polymers to reconsider the investment. During a late July investor call, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the company was considering selling the plant. “The issue is it’s our only one, our only major facility, and that’s why we’ve said we’re not the natural owner of that asset.”
Pipeline Work in Bradford County Leaks ~430 Barrels of Drilling Mud -- Marcellus Drilling News -- On September 8, Blackhill Energy informed the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) of an “inadvertent return” that occurred during horizontal drilling for the Brad-Tenn Loop Pipeline in Granville Township, Bradford County. Blackhill reported that while drilling beneath Route 6 and Sugar Creek, they experienced a pressure issue. The company discovered that 18,000 gallons (approximately 430 barrels) of nontoxic bentonite drilling mud had been lost. The company stopped drilling ops at that point and reported it to the DEP.
11 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 1 – 7 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of September 1 – 7, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica decreased from the previous week. There were 11 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week, down from 19 issued two weeks ago (and way down from 30 issued three weeks ago). Pennsylvania issued just three new permits, with one each going to Expand Energy, EQT Corporation, and Range Resources in Bradford, Greene, and Washington counties, respectively. ANTERO RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GRENADIER ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | HILCORP ENERGY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | WASHINGTON COUNTY
EQT’s Toby Rice: Marcellus Gas Key to Future of AI in U.S. -- Marcellus Drilling News -The AI Horizons Pittsburgh Summit, held in Pittsburgh from Wednesday of this week through today, brought together Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator David McCormick, and dozens of top AI (artificial intelligence) and industry CEOs to spotlight how Pennsylvania is leading with AI that solves complex problems, drives economic growth, and accelerates breakthroughs. One of the industry CEOs speaking yesterday was EQT CEO Toby Rice. He said natural gas in the Marcellus Shale and elsewhere will be key for the future of AI in the U.S.
US East Coast condensate exports surge as Philly hub dives in -- Shipments of condensates from the US East Coast to foreign destinations have risen to records over the... Supplies leaving from Philadelphia are produced in western Pennsylvania's Marcellus and Utica shale formations, according to the Energy Information Administration ...
DRBC Gives LNG Export Dock in Dela. River Extra 5 Yrs to Build -- Marcellus Drilling News -In September 2022, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), a dysfunctional, hot mess of an organization, voted to extend a permit to build the special LNG export dock along the shoreline of the Delaware River in New Jersey by an extra three years (see DRBC Gives LNG Export Dock in Dela. River Extra 3 Yrs to Build). That action sent the enviro-left, including THE Delaware Riverkeeper (Maya van Rossum), into apoplectic fits. Here we are three years later at the end of the extension, and in a surprise move, the five members of the DRBC voted unanimously to extend the deadline *another* five years! Once again, the left is sputtering.
More than 200 gallons of oil spilled in New Bedford Harbor (WLNE) — The New Bedford Fire Department and United States Coast Guard said that 216 gallons of oil were spilled in New Bedford Harbor on Sept. 9. The Coast Guard said the spill occurred when an offshore supply vessel was conducting an “internal fuel transfer.” The Coast Guard responded to an oil spill in New Bedford Harbor yesterday evening. The spill occurred while an offshore supply vessel conducted an internal fuel transfer. MADEP and Coast Guard responders currently estimate 216 gallons of marine diesel was spilled into the harbor. 
️ The discharge has been secured, and containment boom and absorbent pads are being used to contain and recover the oil. The spill was contained via a containment boom and absorbent pads.
Virginia SCC Staff Report Supports “Compressor is Racist” Theory --- Marcellus Drilling News -Despite a “public outcry” (of 13 people), the Chesapeake City (Virginia) Council voted 6-3 in July to approve a compressor station for Virginia Natural Gas (see Chesapeake City Council Approves Va. NatGas Compressor Station). The proposed site is already zoned industrial and has other VNG operations already in place. It’s not like it’s being constructed in the middle of a neighborhood. However, the State Corporation Commission (SCC) hit the pause button on the project in August, to give the commission extra time to sift through the barrage of incoming lies that this compressor station is racist (see Virginia SCC Hits Pause on VNG Proposed Compressor in Chesapeake). And in an act of self-fulfilling prophecy, SCC staffers (no doubt Democrats) have produced a report for commissioners that “echoes” the racism concerns expressed by radicalized antis. Read More“Virginia SCC Staff Report Supports “Compressor is Racist” Theory”
Same Old Liars Tell the Same Old Lies re Transco NC Pipe Project - Last November, Williams officially filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to build an expansion of its mighty Transco pipeline system in the southeastern U.S., a project called the Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (see Williams Files with FERC to Expand Mighty Transco Pipe in Southeast). The SSE project will add 1.6 million dekatherms per day (1.6 Bcf/d) of natural gas transportation capacity, equivalent to what is needed to serve approximately 9.8 million homes. The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) held a hearing last Thursday and is accepting public comments until Oct. 6. The same old liars were out in force peddling the same old lies about pipelines and water quality, air quality, etc., to try to defeat this project.
N.C. Pipeline Deathmatch: Transco SESE vs. MVP Southgate -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two pipeline kingpins are engaged in a deathmatch with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to get their competing pipeline projects approved. One is Williams’ Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE), the other is EQT’s MVP Southgate project. Both projects would be built in the same general area, starting at the same point near Chatham, Virginia, and ending near Eden, North Carolina. Both claim they have customers ready to take their gas. In a recent FERC filing, Williams said that its project could easily handle Southgate MVP’s capacity by adding meter tubes and regulation at an existing station (see Williams’ Transco Tries to Muscle Out MVP Southgate in FERC Filing). EQT was not pleased with the attempt to undercut Southgate. The question is whether this is a deathmatch with one winner taking all, or could both projects receive a FERC green light?
FERC Begins Enviro Reviews for 2 Key Southeast Pipeline Projects -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two major Kinder Morgan pipeline projects that will flow Marcellus/Utica molecules in the southeastern U.S. have taken a big step forward at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The two projects are Tennessee Gas Pipeline’s Mississippi Crossing (MSX) Project and Southern Natural Gas/Elba Express’ South System Expansion 4 (SSE4) Project. The 2.1-Bcf/d MSX and 1.3-Bcf/d SSE4 projects will move more Marcellus/Utica gas into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina (see Kinder Morgan Projects to Boost Deep South Access to M-U Gas). FERC announced last week that the agency is now working on an environmental impact statement (EIS) for both projects, inviting comments on environmental issues that may affect them.
Momentum’s 1.7 Bcf/d Haynesville Natural Gas Pipe Ramps as LNG Demand Builds - The New Generation Gas Gathering LLC (NG3) pipeline has begun operations months ahead of schedule, marking the second new Haynesville Shale gathering project to recently start sending supply toward the Louisiana coast to feed growing LNG feed gas demand. Line chart showing NGI’s Southern California LA Regional Average to Northern California LA Regional Average daily natural gas price spread from March 2024 through September 2025. The spread fluctuates mostly between $0.10 and $0.70 per MMBtu, peaking above $0.70 in June 2024 and dipping briefly negative in March 2025. The chart highlights seasonal volatility and regional basis differentials in California gas markets. Source: NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index.At A Glance:
NG3 startup ahead of late year ramp
Legal fights delayed buildout by a year
Expand sees limited basis impacts near term
Quiet Atlantic Storm Season Belies Still Intact, Growing Demand Risks to Gulf Coast LNG Exports U.S. natural gas markets have gotten a reprieve from hurricane demand destruction risks at an unusually quiet midpoint for the Atlantic storm season, though significant threats to LNG exports remain through November.(Map showing 2025 Atlantic hurricane season storm tracks across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean. Colored lines indicate storm intensities, including major hurricanes, hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions, subtropical storms, and subtropical depressions. Tracks are numbered 1 through 6, with markers for 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC positions along each path. The map highlights storms that approached the U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast, Central America, and open Atlantic. Source: National Hurricane Center.) At A Glance:
Atlantic hurricane season stalled at midpoint
Second half of season still a risk to LNG exports
U.S. LNG capacity set to double by 2030
EQT signs 20-year deal to buy LNG from Commonwealth LNG's Louisiana plant -- EQT Corp. said post-market Monday it agreed to purchase 1M metric tons/year of liquefied natural gas facility for 20 years from Commonwealth LNG's export facility under development on the Louisiana Gulf Coast. EQT. which will purchase the LNG on a free-on-board basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub, said it will market and optimize its cargoes internationally. The additional export capacity will allow to further expand its domestic direct-to-customer strategy into the global energy markets, the company said. Last week, EQT (EQT) signed a similar 20-year deal with NextDecade to buy 1.5M tons/year of LNG from the Rio Grande export facility in Texas. The Commonwealth LNG facility is designed to produce 9.5M metric tons/year of LNG and received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in June; the company has said it plans to make a final investment decision in this year's Q4, with first production targeted for 2029.
Monkey Island LNG Advances with McDermott FEED Study — The Offtake A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 15.6 Mt/y: The developers of the Monkey Island LNG (MILNG) project have contracted McDermott LLC to perform a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for the 15.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) first phase of a proposed terminal. MILNG, a unit of Southern California Telephone & Energy, has proposed an export facility in southwestern Louisiana since at least 2014. Engineering and permitting are targeted to begin in 2026, with first LNG production expected by 2030.
- 200 MMcm: Hungary is moving to displace more of its supply formerly imported from Russia, but the country has not fully committed to a full reduction. Hungary’s MVM CEEnergy has agreed to purchase 200 million cubic meters (MMcm) of LNG from Shell plc for 10 years, delivered via Croatia's Krk import terminal and the Hungary-Croatia pipeline. The contract would cover around 2.5% of Hungary’s current natural gas supply, mostly procured from Russia.
- 3 phases: Big River Energy Inc. has launched proposed expansions of its Mexico LNG export project that could grow capacity to 9 Mt/y. The Gato Negro project sited at the Port of Manzanillo in the Mexican state of Colima could consist of three phases, each adding 3 Mt/y in export capacity. Gato Negro would be fed by U.S. natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas. Commercial operations are targeted for 2030.
TotalEnergies boosts U.S. LNG role with stake in Rio Grande Train 4 - -TotalEnergies has strengthened its position in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by signing agreements with NextDecade to acquire a 10% stake in the joint venture developing Train 4 of the Rio Grande LNG project in South Texas, Trend reports. Through its 17.1% shareholding in NextDecade, the French energy company will hold an additional indirect stake of nearly 7% in the project. Alongside NextDecade (40%), Global Infrastructure Partners (36.9%), GIC (7.9%), and Mubadala (5.2%), TotalEnergies has also joined in taking the Final Investment Decision (FID) on Train 4. With a planned capacity of about 6 million tons per annum (Mtpa), Train 4 will lift Rio Grande LNG’s total production capacity to around 24 Mtpa when it becomes operational in 2030. The development will be financed through a mix of approximately 40% equity and 60% debt. “This project from which we will offtake 1.5 Mtpa strengthens our LNG export capacity from the United States,” said Stéphane Michel, President of Gas, Renewables & Power at TotalEnergies. “The LNG from this fourth train will increase TotalEnergies’ U.S. LNG export capacity to over 16 Mtpa by 2030, further enhancing our ability to contribute to gas supply and building on our 10% market share worldwide.” TotalEnergies is already a partner in Phase 1 of Rio Grande LNG, holding a 16.7% interest and committed to offtake 5.4 Mtpa of LNG. Phase 1, which includes three trains currently under construction, is expected to begin operations in 2027.
NextDecade Pushes U.S. LNG Buildout as Rio Grande Train 4 Reaches FID - NextDecade Corp. has reached a final investment decision (FID) on the first of a wave of planned expansion projects at its Rio Grande LNG facility in South Texas as offtake momentum continues to mount. At A Glance:
$6.7 billion Train 4 project launched
Fourth positive U.S. FID reached in 2025
Train 5 FID expected by year’s end
EQT Cements Exports Ambitions, NextDecade Commercializes Fifth Rio Grande LNG Train in Flurry of Deals -NextDecade Corp. has commercialized the fifth liquefaction train at its Rio Grande LNG project, while EQT Corp. continued to add LNG to its portfolio in a flurry of deals announced at the start of Gastech 2025 in Milan, Italy. At A Glance:
- Train 5 FID expected before Nov. 15
- EQT signs up for more LNG offtake
- TotalEnergies confirms Kogas deal
Pipeline capacity set to nearly double
LNG exports fuel rising Gulf Coast demand
Simple-cycle turbines offer “speed-to-market”
Natural Gas Prices Sink 3% on Bearish US Supply Build --Natural gas futures plunged more than 3% on Thursday after a bearish US storage report and expectations of tepid demand heading into the fall. The energy commodity has struggled to break out following a disappointing summer. October natural gas futures declined 3.1% to $2.934 million British thermal units (Btu) on Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas prices are on track for a weekly decline of approximately 5%, bringing their year-to-date decline to above 6%. New US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that domestic natural gas inventories soared by 71 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 5, up from the previous week’s supply build of 55 billion cubic feet. This came in slightly above the market consensus of 68 billion cubic feet. A majority of the supply build was concentrated in the Midwest (30 billion cubic feet) and the East (22 billion cubic feet). The Pacific region registered a withdrawal of one billion cubic feet. In total, US natural gas supplies stood at 3.343 trillion cubic feet, down 38 billion cubic feet from the same time a year ago. They are also 188 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.155 trillion cubic feet. This was shortly after the EIA projected that US natural gas prices would average $3.70 per million Btu in the fourth quarter and $4.30 next year. As the autumn season approaches, US temperatures are expected to remain warmer than usual in the early part. This is weighing on near-term price action since there would be little domestic demand. However, prices could find support as weather outlooks are pointing to blasts of cold weather across the United States. In other energy commodities, October West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures declined $1.30, or 2.04%, to $62.37 per barrel. November Brent crude futures erased $1.12, or 1.66%, to $66.37 a barrel. October gasoline futures fell $0.0104, or 0.53%, to $1.9689 per gallon. October heating oil futures dipped $0.01, or 0.45%, to $2.27 a gallon.
US natgas prices hold near two-week low as warmer forecasts offset decline in LNG export flows — U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week low on Friday as a decline in flows to liquefied natural gas export plants offset forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather that should support some late-summer air conditioning demand in coming weeks. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.7 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.941 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since August 27. That put the contract down about 4% this week, its first loss in three weeks after gaining about 13% during the prior two weeks. In the spot gas market, prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale in West Texas held around 7 cents per mmBtu for a second day in a row, their lowest since late May when the hub traded in negative territory. Traders noted the Waha price drop was a sign that pipeline constraints, such as maintenance on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express in Texas, were trapping gas in the Permian Basin. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a disturbance off the west coast of Africa had a 40% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days as it moves west across the Atlantic Ocean. T Even though storms can boost gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual this summer. There was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year, and analysts said they expect that percentage to grow in coming weeks. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least September 27. That heat should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 101.0 bcfd this week to 102.6 bcfd next week and 102.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 15.5 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to fall to a three-week low of 15.0 bcfd on Friday due to recent decreases at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi facility in Texas and 4.5-bcfd Sabine in Louisiana, Venture Global LNG's VG 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. That figure compares with a daily LNG feedgas record of 17.3 bcfd on April 9. In other LNG news, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland is scheduled to shut around September 15 for about a month of planned annual autumn maintenance.
Oil Field Job Cuts Pile Up in the US Shale Patch for Fear of a Glut - Producers are slashing head count as OPEC+ hikes threaten to weaken prices further. Roustabouts, roughnecks and petroleum engineers in US oil fields are facing the deepest job cuts since crude prices crashed three years ago, and the prospects of an upturn any time soon are looking bleak. Employment slid 1.7% last month to levels not seen since the summer of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with industry leaders from Chevron Corp. to ConocoPhillips slashing head count to get costs under control. Three years ago, staff levels shrank in response to increasing pessimism about the pace of post-pandemic demand growth and a potential supply glut that tanked crude prices. This time, similar fears are percolating from Houston to London as OPEC+ moves to restore suspended output despite tepid demand signs in some of the largest economies. Benchmark US crude is down more than 12% so far this year, putting it on track for the worst annual performance since the pandemic emerged in 2020. This past weekend, the producers’ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia surprised observers with a supply boost that wasn’t expected so soon. More increases are forecast for coming months, further darkening the outlook for a revival in US shale, where producers unceasingly push to pump more barrels with fewer resources. “A lot of these jobs are just going to be gone,” said Ed Hirs, an economist at the University of Houston. “There will still be jobs in the oil patch in the US, but it will be fewer jobs.” Big Oil’s chief executive officers are trying to stay one step ahead of the price gyrations that underpin their bottom lines. Unlike many of their state-controlled international competitors, US shale bosses not only must cover labor and material costs, but they also have to “return something to the capital markets,” Hirs said.
Court clears path for challenge to California oil rigs - Environmental groups opposing the resurrection of a trio of aging oil drilling platforms off the coast of California scored an interim win after a federal judge rejected a request from the platforms’ owner to dismiss their case. On Wednesday, the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California ruled that the Center for Biological Diversity and the Wishtoyo Chumash Foundation had followed the correct procedure for bringing their challenge and the court would consider the substance of their claims.The groups alleged the Interior Department had violated federal law when it failed to require the new owner of the Santa Ynez Unit, Sable Offshore Corp., to conduct an updated development and production plan before it was slated to resume production for the first time since 2015. Sable intervened in the case on behalf of Interior and asked the court in July to toss out the case, alleging the groups failed to provide proper notice to the agency of their plans to sue. Interior also backed the request to dismiss the case. But the court found their notice of intent to sue filed in 2024 was enough to comply with requirements under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act.
EIA sees lower oil prices in latest outlook | Oil & Gas Journal -In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) projects Brent crude oil prices will decline from about $68/bbl in August to an average of $59/bbl in fourth-quarter 2025, before falling further to about $49/bbl in March and April 2026. For all of 2026, Brent is forecast to average $51/bbl, compared with an average of $68/bbl in 2025. The price decline reflects a significant build in inventories, which are expected to average more than 2 million b/d in second-half 2025, and levels are expected to remain elevated through 2026, according to EIA. EIA noted that its forecasts were finalized before OPEC+ announced a new production increase of 137,000 b/d in October, which could add further pressure on prices. “Despite our assessment that global oil production has been much higher than demand this summer, we have yet to see a significant increase in observable oil inventories. Some third-party data sources that track non-OECD inventories do not show as significant of a stock build as our estimates suggest. This disconnect is likely the result of some of the excess production ending up in observable strategic reserves, particularly China, or other stockpiles used by countries for domestic consumption. However, OECD inventories have recently moved above their seasonal average range from 2018–24 (excluding 2020 and 2021) on a days-of-supply basis. Recent growth in OECD inventories suggest some excess supply is beginning to show up in observable oil inventories,” EIA said. “As temperatures begin to cool and summer driving demand wanes, we expect strong oil supply growth to be reflected in OECD inventory levels, which we see exceeding to the upper bound of their recent five-year average by the end of our forecast in 2026,” EIA added. EIA estimates that global oil inventories will increase by an average of 1.6 million b/d in 2026, compared with an average annual increase of 1.7 million b/d in 2025. EIA expects inventory builds will be highest in fourth-quarter 2025 and first-quarter 2026, averaging 2.3 million b/d over that time. Global oil supply, demand EIA’s forecast indicates that the anticipated increases in OPEC+ production, alongside robust supply growth from non-OPEC+ nations, will continue to fuel global liquid fuels production. EIA projects an increase of 2.3 million b/d in global liquid fuels production in 2025, followed by an additional rise of 1.1 million b/d in 2026. Most of this growth is expected to come from countries outside of OPEC+, which we estimate will contribute 1.7 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026. Notably, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and the US are anticipated to be key drivers of this production increase. In contrast, OPEC+ crude oil production is projected to rise by 0.6 million b/d in 2025 and by 0.5 million b/d in 2026. This increase is based on the assumption that OPEC+ plans to moderate output growth to avoid excessive inventory accumulation and prevent a further drop in oil prices. On the consumption side, global liquid fuels consumption is forecasted to grow by 0.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.3 million b/d in 2026. This growth is predominantly driven by non-OECD countries, which are expected to see increases of 1.0 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. Conversely, OECD consumption is predicted to decrease by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 before experiencing a growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2026. Most of the growth in non-OECD countries will be concentrated in Asia, with liquid fuels consumption in India and China each projected to increase by 0.4 to 0.5 million b/d from 2024 to 2026. EIA's forecast of declining oil prices is expected to result in lower gasoline prices. EIA expects the US average retail price for regular-grade gasoline will be around $3.10/gal this year, down $0.20/gal from last year. Looking ahead to 2026, retail gasoline prices are projected to drop further to an average of $2.90/gal, with annual averages falling below $3.00/gal in all regions except the West Coast. Driven by falling gasoline prices, US drivers’ gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income are likely to be the lowest since at least 2005—excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020. EIA estimates expenditures will average less than 2% of disposable income this year, down from an average of 2.4% over the previous decade. EIA forecasts a slight increase in US gasoline consumption next year. “The forecast for rising gasoline consumption is driven by an upward revision to the number of people of working age compared with our previous forecasts, and lower gasoline prices compared with our forecasts from earlier this year,” EIA said. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of $2.91/MMbtu in August to $3.70/MMbtu in fourth-quarter 2025 and $4.30/MMbtu next year. Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in US LNG exports. Due to rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices in 2026, EIA forecasts that crude oil will trade at its lowest premium to natural gas since 2005. “As a result, we expect drilling activity in the US to be more centered in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026. We expect US natural gas production will be relatively flat next year compared with 2025, while we expect crude oil production will decline by about 1%,” EIA said.
Canada Considers Lifting Oil Emissions Cap in Exchange for Industry Pledges -- The Canadian federal government has proposed lifting an emissions cap on the oil industry, but only if the industry promises to find other ways to reduce its emissions in line with 2030 and further targets.Per a Reuters report citing unnamed sources in the know, Alberta’s government will also have to make an emission reduction promise if it wants the emissions cap lifted on its key industry. Prime Minister Mark Carney was in discussions about the cap with oil industry executives, the Reuters sources said.The oil and gas sector is the source of the biggest chunk of Canada’s emissions, accounting for 28% of the total based on 2021 numbers. The federal government’s plan, first released at the end of last year by Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, calls for a reduction in emissions from 171 million tons in 2019 to between 106 and 112 million tons by 2030.The oil industry reacted to the idea as one might expect, slamming it as a cap on oil production, essentially preventing the Canadian oil industry from growing beyond a certain level. At a House of Commons hearing a year ago, top executives from the oil sands said the cap would be unproductive and redundant.“The world will not consume one less barrel of oil simply because Canada chooses not to provide it. That barrel will come from somewhere else,” Suncor chief executive Rich Kruger said at the hearing. Imperial Oil’s CEO noted the presence of other “vehicles and requirements” put in place to curb emissions of carbon dioxide in the country. The cap is scheduled to go into effect from 2030, but if Carney’s new idea gains traction, it might end up in the trash, to be replaced by a “climate competitiveness strategy”, which the Carney government is set to announce later this year, according to the Reuters sources.
Canada’s East Coast LNG Push Resurfaces with Fermeuse Export Project --An LNG infrastructure developer has proposed an export project in Newfoundland and Labrador as Canada looks to open an Atlantic natural gas corridor to Europe. At A Glance:
Fermeuse eyes $12-15B Newfoundland terminal
Project targets exports to Europe
Developer looks to tap Jeanne d’Arc associated gas
Argentina LNG Push Gains Scale, Mexico’s Gato Negro Expands — The flurry of activity in the LNG space is not limited to the United States. Latin America's LNG ambitions are powering up too as Argentina’s YPF SA CEO Horacio Marin touted the firm's export project as an economic boon for the country, while Mexico’s Gato Negro plans to triple its proposed capacity. Alt-Text: Line chart showing NGI’s Waha Forward Fixed Price Curve from September 2025 through September 2027. Prices start below $1.00/MMBtu in late 2025, spike to nearly $3.00 in early 2026, dip back below $1.00 by spring 2026, then steadily climb to a peak above $4.00/MMBtu in early 2027 before easing to the $3.00 range by mid to late 2027. At A Glance:
Confidence grows in Argentina investment
Rio Negro FLNG project gains momentum
Gato Negro triples LNG capacity plan
Strong Demand in Asia, Europe Lifts Global Natural Gas Prices — LNG Recap -- Global natural gas prices climbed on Monday as fundamentals shifted and supply concerns returned to the market.
NGI’s North America LNG Export Flow Tracker for Sept. 8, 2025, shows total U.S. LNG deliveries at 15.78 million Dth, down from 16.45 million Dth the previous day. A bar chart tracks daily flows from Aug. 30 to Sept. 8, ranging between 15.72 and 16.45 million Dth. Listed U.S. LNG facilities include Corpus Christi, Freeport, Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, Plaquemines, Sabine Pass, Elba Island, and Cove Point, with operational capacities and utilization rates. LNG Canada and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul show no reported deliveries. A U.S. map highlights LNG facility locations. Data sourced from Wood Mackenzie, pipeline EBBs, and NGI calculations. At A Glance:
Norway cuts exports during planned maintenance
China takes more Russian LNG
U.S. prices move higher as tropical storm fizzles
Global LNG Buying Spree Continues, Further Lifting Prospects for U.S. Export Expansion - Global buyers continued to ink deals to purchase more LNG in a spate of deals announced from one of the world’s largest natural gas conferences in Milan this week. At a Glance:
Texas LNG inks new deal
Cheniere agrees to supply Turkey’s Botas
Alaska LNG advances tentative supply deals
Exxon Expects Long-Term LNG Commitments From Europe -Exxon expects European gas buyers to commit to long-term supply deals with U.S. sellers, the Financial Times has reported, as Europe has become the most important market for U.S. liquefied gas. These contracts would be part of a broader commitment that the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen made to President Trump for the EU to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. oil and gas until 2028. The European Union has been averse to long-term gas commitments for years, in the belief that gas would not be part of its energy mix over the longer term, so spot market purchases and shorter contracts of one to two years were the smarter bet. According to Exxon’s senior vice president of LNG, Peter Clarke, this was starting to change. Earlier this year, Italy’s Eni inked a 20-year contract with Venture Global for the delivery of 2 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually. Venture Global scored another 20-year deal with Germany’s state gas buyer SEFE, which also sealed an LNG delivery deal with Conoco, for a shorter period of 10 years. Exxon itself is still building its Golden Pass LNG plant in a joint venture with QatarEnergy. The facility is expected to be commissioned in 2026 and later reach a peak capacity of 15 million tons. A lot of this could end up going into Europe in the context of the EC commitment and President Trump’s recent call on the EU to give up all Russian energy imports. The EU already imports 55% of its LNG from the United States, up by 20% from last year, according to Exxon’s Clarke. That number could go up to 66% with new long-term commitments and a further shift away from Russian energy, regardless of the cost differentials.
U.S. Energy Chief: EU Can Quit Russian Gas in Less Than 12 Months --The EU could accelerate the phase out of natural gas imports from Russia and end purchases within six to 12 months by replacing it with American LNG, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Reuters on Friday, after communicating the same to EU officials in Brussels on Thursday. “I think this could easily be done within 12 months, maybe within six months,” Secretary Wright told Reuters, adding that “I definitely voiced the opinion we could do it faster.” “On the U.S. side, we could do it faster, and I think it would be good if those dates were moved up even more. I don't know that that's going to happen, but that was dialogued,” Wright said, referring to his meeting with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen.The EU currently plans to phase out all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, under a roadmap to end dependency on Russian energy unveiled in May this year. The roadmap calls for the EU to stop all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 by improving the transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets. New contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented and spot contracts (for immediate payment) will be stopped by the end of 2025. “We are particularly looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in the 2025 State of the Union Address on Wednesday, without giving details how the EU could do it. The U.S. has increased pressure on Europe to cut off its energy dependence on Russia and stop buying Russian oil and gas to reduce revenues for the Kremlin and force Vladimir Putin to engage in genuine talks on peace in Ukraine. “The faster we phase out, the sooner you put pressure on Russia,” Secretary Wright told Reuters, as the United States is intensifying pressure on its EU and G7 partners to act with tariffs on India and China over their continued imports of Russian crude oil.
Chevron Submits Bid for Offshore Gas Exploration in Greece -- U.S. oil major Chevron has submitted a bid to explore for natural gas in four blocks offshore Greece in a consortium with Greece's Helleniq Energy, Greece's Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou said on Wednesday. The country launched the tender this year after Chevron and oil refiner Helleniq Energy expressed interest in four deep-sea blocks off the Peloponnese peninsula and the island of Crete. The deadline for bids was at 1700 (1400 GMT) on Wednesday. A Chevron spokesperson confirmed the bid for the four blocks "Chevron has a large and important position in the Eastern Mediterranean, a region which is very much a part of our future and a priority for us." Greece, which produces very small volumes of oil, has ramped up renewables output in recent years but still relies heavily on gas for power generation. The country aims to tap domestic resources as part of a European Union push to shift away from Russian energy after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Major gas finds off Egypt, which lies south of Crete, have sparked hopes that Greek waters could also contain significant gas reserves. The area off Crete borders two licensed blocks where an ExxonMobil-led consortium has been evaluating seismic data before taking any final decision on test drilling.
Türkiye signs 3-year LNG deal with BP, eyes stronger energy security - Türkiye’s state energy company BOTAS and British energy giant BP have signed a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement valid for three years, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on Tuesday. Bayraktar said the deal foresees annual deliveries of around 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm), amounting to a total of 4.8 bcm over the contract period. He noted that the partnership is expected to strengthen supply security during the winter months, increase diversification of sources, and enhance commercial flexibility. Speaking at the Gastech 2025 Forum in Milan, Bayraktar underlined Türkiye’s rapidly rising energy needs. He stated that electricity consumption currently stands at about 350 terawatt-hours annually and is projected to reach 1,000 terawatt-hours within the next 30 years. The minister pointed to the country’s domestic production efforts, recalling a large natural gas discovery in the Black Sea five years ago. "We are now producing gas from this field, which supplies four million households in Türkiye," he said. “We need more gas, so we are boosting production in the Black Sea and also looking into other projects with our partners in Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East."
Woodside Seals 15-Year LNG Deal With Petronas -Woodside Energy Trading Singapore and Petronas LNG have signed a 15-year LNG sale and purchase agreement for 1 million tonnes per year to Malaysia. The binding deal converts a heads of agreement signed in June 2025 and will draw on Woodside’s global portfolio. Volumes may include supply from Woodside’s Louisiana LNG project once it comes online. Deliveries can begin as early as 2028 from portfolio sources. First LNG from Louisiana is targeted for 2029. The three-train development is sanctioned at 16.5 mtpa and fully permitted to expand to 27.6 mtpa with two additional trains. Woodside has secured a long-term feedgas agreement for up to 640 bcf. Train 1 was 22% complete at mid-year, with first structural steel expected by year-end. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved an in-service extension to end-2029 for the plant and the Driftwood pipeline. This is Woodside’s first long-term LNG supply arrangement with Malaysia. The agreement supports Petronas’ plan to bolster energy security in Peninsular Malaysia. It also helps integrate domestic gas developments with LNG imports to meet rising demand from power and industry. Drivers include data-center growth, wider AI adoption, and the shift away from coal. Mark Abbotsford, Woodside’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, said the deal opens a new long-term customer relationship in Malaysia. For Petronas, the contract adds a diversified source of LNG while major regional projects ramp and electricity demand accelerates. If Louisiana LNG’s full expansion proceeds, Woodside will have additional headroom later in the decade. Until then, portfolio flexibility allows early deliveries while construction advances in the U.S.
Nigeria targets $60bn investment to boost gas output, infrastructure = The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has announced plans to raise $60 billion in new investments over the next five to seven years to expand gas production and develop infrastructure aimed at strengthening the country’s role in the global energy market. Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Bayo Ojulari, outlined the target on Tuesday during the Energy Talk segment of the 2025 Gastech Exhibition and Conference in Milan, Italy. The announcement was contained in a statement released by NNPC’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh. Ojulari said Nigeria intends to scale up daily gas production to 12 billion cubic feet while increasing refining capacity to meet rising global demand. He added that the Federal Government had improved conditions for foreign capital. “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has improved Nigeria’s investment climate and positioned the country as the preferred investment destination for the energy sector in Africa,” he said. According to Ojulari, several gas-based projects, including petrochemical and methanol plants, have already attracted investors, but additional capital is required. “We require additional investments to build infrastructure to support the Federal Government’s aspiration to power the nation’s transportation sector with Compressed Natural Gas (CNG),” he stated. He also pointed to untapped reserves in crude oil. “Apart from gas, our existing crude oil assets have huge untapped reservoirs for investors to tap into to boost production beyond the current 1.7 million barrels per day. We also have over 200 undeveloped oil fields with enormous potential,” he said. Ojulari highlighted ongoing projects, including the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline and NLNG Train 7, as central to Nigeria’s energy transition strategy, which focuses on gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas. He also noted NNPC’s commitments to carbon capture initiatives, energy efficiency technologies, and reduced gas flaring. “Our focus is on eradicating energy poverty, which requires enormous investments in gas as the fuel of choice for industrialisation and LPG as domestic cooking gas for the over six million Africans who lack access to clean energy,” Ojulari said.
Over 65 bcm of sweet gas produced in South Pars in 5 months - Tehran Times - The managing director of the South Pars Gas Complex stated that in the first five months of this year, over 65 billion cubic meters of sweet gas and 79 million barrels of gas condensate were produced. Gholam Abbas Hosseini said: "In the first five months of this year, approximately 76 billion cubic meters of feed gas were extracted from the sea. After processing, over 65 billion cubic meters of sweet gas were transferred to the national grid. Gas condensate production during this period also exceeded 79 million barrels."He emphasized: "This production capacity contributes to the stable supply of energy during the cold season and is the result of the expertise of domestic personnel and the use of modern technologies in the 13 refineries of South Pars."
Australia Approves North West Shelf LNG Extension to 2070 -Australia has given the final approval for the North West Shelf Project Extension that will see the operating life of the country’s biggest and oldest LNG plant extended to 2070. Woodside’s North West Shelf gas processing plant in Karratha, Western Australia, the country’s first and largest LNG plant, can now operate until 2070, after Australia’s federal Environment Minister, Murray Watt, gave the final approval on Friday, with 48 strict conditions that will avoid and mitigate significant impacts to the Murujuga rock art.The project’s operator, Australia’s top gas producer Woodside, first proposed the extension of the operating life of the North West Shelf Project back in 2018. State and federal governments have been reviewing the plans to extend the life beyond 2030, as it was originally planned, amid hundreds of appeals by activists campaigning to preserve the environment and the cultural heritage of the local people.Extending the environmental consent for the project, which began producing gas in 1984, means that Woodside and its partners in the project would continue to deliver gas using existing infrastructure.The project will be required to reduce its emissions every year and reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 under the Albanese Government’s strengthened Safeguard Mechanism, the minister said in a statement.Woodside and the North West Shelf Joint Venture welcomed the Australian Government’s final decision to grant environmental approval for the North West Shelf Project Extension.“This final approval provides certainty for the ongoing operation of the North West Shelf Project, so it can continue to provide reliable energy supplies as it has for more than 40 years,” said Liz Westcott, Woodside Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Australia. Energy companies operating in Australia are looking to boost domestic gas output as supply in major consuming areas is often strained at peak demand periods.
"Shock To Global Seaborne Gas Trade": China-Russia Pipeline Seen Displacing One-Third Of LNG Imports -China’s planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline with Russia could displace the equivalent of one-third of the country’s LNG imports and deliver a “shock” to the global seaborne gas trade, according to analysts cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP).The 50-billion-cubic-meter-per-year conduit, slated to run through Mongolia, would lock in long-term Russian pipeline supply and sharply cut China’s need for LNG cargoes just as global exporters scale up capacity.The warning follows Sunday’s signing of a binding memorandum between Moscow and Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom chief Alexei Miller presented the deal in Beijing as a centerpiece of their energy partnership.While intent has been formalized, key commercial details such as pricing and financing remain unsettled, with analysts describing the accord as a demonstration of strategic alignment between the two nations, underscoring Russia’s eastward pivot after Europe halted most pipeline purchases. Chinese media continue to emphasize the sheer scale of the shift. Sina Finance reported Gazprom’s plans to expand existing Power of Siberia flows from 38 to 44 bcm annually, and Far East volumes from 10 to 12 bcm, alongside the new Mongolian line. QQ.com highlighted Beijing’s view of the project as insurance against volatile LNG markets and leverage in negotiations with U.S. and Qatari suppliers.The initiative is part of a “new gas world order,” with pipeline deals reinforcing China’s long-term bargaining power in energy.Analysts from Barron’s and Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy have warned that U.S. LNG exporters could lose market share in Asia if China secures more Russian volumes, with the pipeline reducing spot demand and softening growth trajectories for American cargoes. If Power of Siberia 2 is built on schedule, it would provide China with fixed-price, long-distance pipeline gas at volumes comparable to major LNG supply deals.
Russia-China Gas Deal May Seal New Gas World Order -The signing of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal by the presidents of Russia and China was perhaps the biggest news to come out of the two leaders’ meeting earlier this month. It was also the deal that may very well make the new global natural gas flow order permanent, potentially interfering with President Trump’s energy dominance ambitions.The Power of Siberia 2 project has been in the works for years. Yet China took its time deciding to commit to it. Now, the decision has been made, and although details have yet to be tailored, the signal is clear: China will be sourcing more natural gas from Russia—a lot more. The annual amount of gas Russia will be selling to China once the second Power of Siberia is completed would exceed 100 billion cu m.Incidentally, this is a similar amount to that which Russia was supposed to be sending to Europe after the completion of the second branch of the Nord Stream pipeline. This will not be happening now, not with the EU leaders pledging to suspend all imports of Russian energy within two years, even as they keep buying Russian gas from TurkStream and step up LNG imports from the most sanctioned country in the world. This will have to stop if the EU is serious about ending all Russian energy imports.As luck and geopolitics would have it, the EU has a ready and willing alternative supplier. U.S. gas producers have been on a roll, boosting production for the liquefaction plants along the Gulf Coast, eyeing the European market as a long-term demand source. The Trump administration has been encouraging this as part of its energy dominance agenda. For both, the Russia-China pipeline deal is a problem. It is, however, a bigger problem for the European Union.European businesses have a competition problem. It stems from high energy costs that drive up final prices for things produced in Europe. China, on the other hand, has lower energy costs that boost the competitiveness of Chinese-made products. There is also the innovation issue, but that’s a different topic. So, China enjoys low-cost energy to enhance the competitiveness of its products on international markets, while Europe struggles with the impact of high-cost energy on its competitiveness. Now, the struggle is about to become chronic. Europe is already the largest market for U.S. liquefied natural gas. This is good in terms of supply security but not so good in terms of price. As has been repeated ad nauseam, there is no way in the physical world we inhabit for U.S. LNG to become cheaper for European buyers than Russian—or indeed Norwegian—pipeline gas for obvious reasons related to geography and the production costs of gas liquefaction. This automatically puts LNG-dependent Europe at a disadvantage compared to China, an even greater one than it is already facing.The situation is somewhat problematic for the Trump administration as well, because the energy cost troubles of European businesses will eventually begin to affect their purchasing power—and the purchasing power of the governments responsible for securing energy supplies for, say, the heating season. This is not good for governments planning to dedicate billions in subsidies to specific industries and financial aid to households unable to afford current energy prices. Essentially, there is not enough money to cover all the expenses in Europe.From the U.S. perspective, the Power of Siberia 2 deal is also bad news because it means China would be importing less LNG, including U.S. LNG, as Reuters’ Ron Bousso pointed out in a recent column. Yet China has not imported U.S. LNG for months. It stopped importing U.S. LNG in early spring, amid the tariff spat between Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports hit an all-time high last month, suggesting producers don’t really need the Chinese market all that vitally.
Wright and Burgum urge Europe to rethink methane curbs - The Trump administration is aiming to sabotage a European climate regulation that could thwart U.S. plans to export hundreds of billions of dollars of fossil fuels. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are ramping up the pressure this week, during a diplomatic blitz that includes stops at the Gastech conference in Milan and a trip Thursday to Brussels. They have urged Europe to rethink a methane regulation that will restrict imports that exceed strict emission levels for methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The trip comes just weeks after the White House and EU inked a trade framework to send $250 billion of U.S. energy, including liquefied natural gas, to Europe annually over the next three years. “There’s a number of sort of nontariff barriers that I think are problematic for growing energy into Europe,” Wright said Wednesday at a press conference in Milan, pointing to the methane regulation. “Wouldn’t be good for America … wouldn’t be good for Europe. “We want to engage in those dialogues,” he said. The EU’s methane regulation is set to take full effect in 2027, after EU officials adopted it last year. That could be a problem for the U.S. oil and gas industry, which may not be able to meet the new standards. The rule could deprive U.S. producers of a lucrative market, said Brenda Shaffer, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a researcher at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. “It was obvious there was going to be a collision course over the methane content,” she said in an interview. “The main producing American companies have made it very clear that they really can’t comply with this and that it’s a huge obstacle to supplying the European market.” In a statement Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute called the regulation “ill-conceived,” arguing it undercuts U.S. industry. “We will continue working with the administration to push for delayed implementation and ensure any compliance requirements for U.S. energy exports are practical,” said Aaron Padilla, vice president of corporate policy at API, a major U.S. oil and gas lobbying group. The pressure on Europe is part of a broader Trump administration push to boost global consumption of fossil fuels, even as temperature rise is poised to pass thresholds that will bring far more extreme weather, according to the United Nations and most climate scientists. Along with carbon dioxide, methane is a powerful, climate-warming greenhouse gas. The Trump team is urging allies to embrace fossil fuels to meet rising demand from artificial intelligence projects and increased electrification. At Wednesday’s press conference, Burgum argued that losing the AI race was a bigger threat than climate change (see related story). “What’s going to save the planet is winning the AI arms race,” Burgum said at the press conference. “I’m worried about the next generation, but that’s all solvable. The real existential threat right now is not a degree of climate change, it’s the fact that we could lose the AI arms race if we don’t have enough power.”
Donald Trump issues warning to EU leaders: Stop buying Russian oil -- President Trump joined a call Thursday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and world leaders during which he urged Europe to stop purchasing Russian oil as a way to undercut Moscow’s war in Ukraine.French President Emmanuel Macron and Zelensky met in France, while roughly 20 other leaders joined the meeting virtually to discuss efforts to end the war in Ukraine, which has been raging since Russian forces invaded in February 2022.“President Trump emphasized that Europe must stop purchasing Russian oil that is funding the war — as Russia received €1.1 billion [$1.28 billion] in fuel sales from the EU in one year,” a White House official said in a statement. “The president also emphasized that European leaders must place economic pressure on China for funding Russia’s war efforts.”The call took place as progress has appeared to stall on efforts by Trump and others to end the war in Ukraine. The president has sought to arrange a meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but there has been little progress on getting the two leaders together.Trump has bristled at the suggestion that he has not taken action against Russia as it continues to bombard Ukraine with drone strikes, pointing to tariffshe imposed on India over its purchase of Russian oil and gas.Trump told CBS News in an interview late Wednesday that he remained optimistic there would be a conclusion to the war, even if it was not imminent. “Something is going to happen, but they are not ready yet,” the president said. “But something is going to happen. We are going to get it done.”Leaders from Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan and several other nations joined Thursday’s call, members of what is dubbed the “Coalition of the Willing.”Zelensky said following the meeting that the group discussed security guarantees for Ukraine and additional sanctions on Russia.“We share the same view that Russia is making every effort to drag out the negotiation process and prolong the war,” Zelensky posted on social platform X. “Support for Ukraine must be increased and pressure on Russia must be intensified. Preparations for the 19th EU sanctions package are underway. Japan is also working on sanctions measures.” Putin has in recent days met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, raising concerns that those nations are forging a close partnership to counter the U.S. and Europe.
No dip in crude imports from Russia in August -Over a third of India’s energy imports continue to be driven by Russia, a trend which has largely remained stable through this year even as India grapples with the levy of an ‘additional’ tariff from the US, penalising it for this trade. This, despite an overall decline in import volumes in August. Analysis of recent figures from financial data firm LSEG shows that a 11 percent dip in imports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) countries, USA and Qatar has resulted in the overall drop in crude imports into India in August. While India’s total crude oil imports experienced a minor contraction, from over 19,500 kilotonnes in July to 19,172.5 kilotonnes the next month, Russian crude imports increased by 11 percent in the same period. In August, Russian crude accounted for 36.6 percent of India’s total imports. While this is slightly lower than the year’s high of 39.9 percent in June, it still indicates a sustained flow of Russian crude into India driven by its low prices in the global market. The Trump administration levied an additional 25 percent tariff on India in August penalising it for importing Russian crude, alleging it further fuels the war in Ukraine. Forbes India had reported earlier that the US imports three times more from Russia than it does from Ukraine. And despite India’s reliance on Russian crude, it imported goods worth over $1 billion from Ukraine in 2024, way more than the $500 million that the US did in the same year. For its part, there has been no indication from New Delhi that it will decrease or stop Russian energy imports.
Japan Cuts Price Cap on Russian Oil to $47.60 --Japan joins the EU in cutting the price cap on purchases of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel, in a move effective Friday and aimed at punishing Russia over the war in Ukraine, yet unlikely to affect any Japanese purchases. Japan lowered the price cap from the $60 per barrel imposed by the G7 years ago, to $47.60 a barrel. Japan is also imposing fresh export sanctions on Russian firms and additional asset freezes, as part of its efforts to help the international push to end the war in Ukraine, chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at a regular news briefing on Friday, as carried by Reuters.The Japanese move follows the EU’s price cap cut from July, when the European Union lowered the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.60 from $60 per barrel as it adopted the 18th sanctions package against Russia, targeting a hundred more ‘shadow fleet’ tankers, energy trade, and traders and banks enabling it. The 18th sanctions package seeks to curtail Russia’s energy revenues, with the lower price cap “to align it with current global oil prices,” the EU said. The price cap mechanism set by the G7 and the EU says that Russian crude shipments to third countries can use Western insurance and financing if cargoes are sold at or below a certain ceiling, which is now $47.60 per barrel for the EU and Japan.Japan’s imports of Russian oil, which have accounted for a tiny 0.1% share so far this year, would not be affected as the Asian economy imports oil from the by-product from the Sakhalin-2 project, which is exempted from the price cap rule. Japan gets about 9% of its LNG from Sakhalin-2. The fresh Japanese sanctions on Russia come as U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly urged U.S. partner countries in the G7 group to impose tariffs on China and India in punishment for their continued energy trade with Russia.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict And OPEC+ Supply Cuts - Global oil markets climbed sharply on Monday as intensifying Russia-Ukraine hostilities reignited fears of supply disruptions, compounded by a modest production increase from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). Brent crude futures advanced 1.3% to $66.34 per barrel, up from $65.45 at the previous close, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.4%, trading at $62.60 per barrel from Friday’s $61.70. The price rally followed Moscow’s largest air assault on Ukraine since the war began, escalating geopolitical tensions and raising expectations of tougher sanctions. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian forces deployed over 800 drones, alongside four ballistic and nine cruise missiles, targeting Kyiv in an unprecedented strike. The Ukrainian Air Force reported most drones were intercepted, but at least 54 UAVs and nine missiles hit the capital, including a direct strike on a government building. Speaking before his departure to New York, U.S. President Donald Trump warned he was prepared to escalate sanctions against Russia. European Council President Antonio Costa confirmed the bloc was accelerating plans for additional measures and would send a delegation to Washington to coordinate policy. Traders fear that prolonged conflict and mounting sanctions could deepen global supply concerns, supporting higher crude prices. At the same time, Trump’s sanctions rhetoric injected uncertainty into demand forecasts, stoking concerns about weaker global economic growth. Adding to supply-side pressures, OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-anticipated production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in October. The decision, driven by major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, undershot market expectations, which had anticipated a more significant boost. The alliance had previously raised output by 547,000 bpd in September and 548,000 bpd in August. Analysts suggest the restrained increase signaled OPEC+’s caution in the face of uncertain demand and volatile geopolitical dynamics. Market watchers say the combination of war-related risks and constrained supply continues to underpin oil’s upward momentum, though concerns about slowing global growth may limit the rally in the near term.
OPEC+ Decided to Increase its Output in October - The oil market posted an inside trading day and settled in positive territory despite OPEC+ deciding to increase its output again in October. The market remained supported as the production increase of 137,000 bpd from October was seen as modest and had been priced into last week’s decline in prices. Also, the producer group left room for flexibility ahead. The market was also supported by the possibility of further sanctions on Russian crude after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he was ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia. The oil market posted a low of $61.85 on the opening before it retraced most of Friday’s losses by early Monday morning and posted a high of $63.34. The market gave up some of its gains once again but held its support at its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The October WTI contract ended the session up 39 cents at $62.26 and the November Brent contract ended the session up 52 cents at $66.02. Meanwhile, the product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.49 cents at $2.3119 and the RB market settling down 56 points at $1.9586. OPEC+ agreed to further increase its oil production from October as Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share, while slowing the pace of increases compared with previous months due to an anticipated weakening of global demand. On Sunday, eight members of OPEC+ agreed in an online meeting to raise production from October by 137,000 bpd, much lower than the monthly increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August and 411,000 bpd in July and June. The Sunday deal also means OPEC+ has begun to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd by eight members more than a year ahead of schedule. The group has already fully unwound the first part of 2.5 million bpd since April, equivalent to about 2.4 percent of global demand. OPEC+ said it retained options to accelerate, pause or reverse hikes at future meetings. It scheduled the next meeting of the eight countries for October 5th. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said the country is complying with its commitments under the OPEC+ deal and is eager to compensate for its overproduction of oil. The Kremlin said that no sanctions will ever be able to force Russia to change course on Ukraine, just hours after both the United States and European Union indicated they were considering additional sanctions. The Kremlin’s spokesman said that Europe and Ukraine are doing everything they can to draw the United States into their orbit. He said the Kremlin’s preference was to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means but if that was impossible then what Putin calls the “special military operation” would continue. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +6.8% w/w to 77.69 million bbl in the week ended September 5. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 574,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 12th, cutting available refining capacity by 143,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 697,000 bpd in the week ending September 19th.
Oil settles up after OPEC+ opts for modest output hike (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Monday, recovering some of last week's losses, after producer group OPEC+ opted for a modest output hike and investors priced in the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude. OPEC+ flagged plans to further increase production from October, but the amount was less than some analysts had anticipated. Reuters reported earlier this month that members were considering another hike. . "The market had run ahead of itself in regard to this OPEC+ increase," "Today we're seeing a classic sell the rumour, buy the fact reaction." Brent crude settled up 52 cents, or 0.79%, to $66.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 39 cents, or 0.63%, to $62.26 a barrel. Both benchmarks had risen more than $1 earlier in Monday's session. Prices fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak U.S. jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, agreed on Sunday to further raise oil production from October. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, cut the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia a day after OPEC+ producers agreed the output hike. "Riyadh and its allies signaled a decisive pivot: defending market share now outweighs defending prices," "By allowing supply back into a market moving toward surplus, OPEC+ is playing offense, not defense. Traders have been put on notice," he added. OPEC+ has been increasing production since April after years of cuts aimed at supporting the oil market. The latest decision comes despite a likely looming oil glut in the Northern Hemisphere winter months. The eight members of OPEC+ will lift production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. That, however, is much lower than increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August and 411,000 bpd in July and June. The impact of the latest increase is expected to be relatively low, because some members have been over-producing. So the higher output level would likely include barrels that are already in the market, analysts said. OPEC on Monday released a compensation schedule from six of its members covering the period from last month and until June next year to make up for producing above their targets. The schedule indicates that in total the members need to deliver monthly cuts ranging from 190,000 bpd to 829,000 bpd to comply with output targets. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against Moscow or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine. "Expectations of tighter supply from potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia are also lending support," . New sanctions on buyers of Russian oil could disrupt crude flows, Russia launched its largest air attack of the Ukraine war over the weekend, setting the main government building on fire in central Kyiv and killing at least four people, Ukrainian officials said. Trump said on Sunday that individual European leaders would visit the United States on Monday and Tuesday to discuss how to resolve the conflict. In a note over the weekend, Goldman Sachs said it expects a slightly larger oil surplus in 2026 as supply upgrades in the Americas outweigh a downgrade to Russian supply and stronger global demand. It left its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025 and projected the 2026 average at $56/$52 a barrel.
Oil Prices Jump as Israel Strikes in Qatar -- Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after Israel carried out a rare and brazen strike in Doha, Qatar, an escalation that rattled global energy markets. WTI crude rose 1.37% to $63.11, while Brent gained 1.32% to $66.89. Israel struck Hamas officials in Doha, according to reports — the first known Israeli attack to land on Qatari soil. The location alone raises the stakes: Qatar is home to a large U.S. base and keeps open political channels with Hamas. The strike has stirred talk of wider instability in the Gulf, a region critical to global energy flows. Traders wasted no time adding a risk premium. Qatar doesn’t ship much crude oil, but it is a top gas supplier and a key player in the Gulf energy network. Any hint of trouble there tends to push oil benchmarks higher. Analysts noted that markets are already contending with ongoing supply-side uncertainties—from OPEC+ output maneuvering to U.S. shale retrenchment—and the Doha strike added another layer of volatility. The episode comes at a delicate diplomatic moment. Washington has leaned heavily on Qatar in recent years, relying on Doha as a go-between with Hamas and as a stabilizer in regional conflicts. An Israeli strike on Qatari soil not only heightens security risks but also complicates U.S. and European diplomatic calculations at a time when both are considering tightening sanctions on Russia’s oil trade. For oil producers, the immediate impact is supportive of prices. But as one trader put it, markets are less worried about barrels missing today than about what this means tomorrow. If the strike signals a willingness by Israel to expand its battlefield into the Gulf, then the geopolitical risk premium could be back in force after a relatively quiet summer.
The Oil Market Traded Higher Following Attack in the Middle East - The oil market on Tuesday traded higher in light of the news that the Israeli military carried out an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar’s capital Doha. The market, which posted a low of $62.37, retraced some more of Monday morning’s losses as the market was supported by the modest OPEC+ output increase, expectations that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions against Russia. It was further supported and rallied to a high of $63.67 by mid-day following the news of Israel expanding its military campaign. The attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar came hours after Israel said it was about to obliterate Gaza City. However, the crude market later gave up some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range. The October WTI contract settled up 37 cents at $62.63 the November Brent contract settled up 37 cents at $66.39. The product market also the ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 80 points at $2.3199 and the RB market settling up 3.39 cents at $1.9925. The U.S. EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report that global oil prices are set to fall significantly in the months ahead as rising OPEC+ production will lead to large oil inventory builds. The EIA said oil inventories will increase at an average of about 2.1 million bpd through the second-half of 2025 and remain elevated through next year. For the full year, Brent crude prices are expected to average $67.80/barrel, while WTI crude futures are expected to average $64.16/barrel. Global crude oil and liquid fuels output is expected to average 105.5 million bpd this year, up 100,000 bpd from its previous forecast. Consumption is expected to average 103.8 million bpd this year, up 100,000 bpd over the previous forecasts. U.S. crude oil output is now expected to average a record 13.44 million bpd this year, up from the previous forecast of 13.41 million bpd. Gasoline consumption in the U.S. will increase next year to average 8.93 million bpd due to a combination of lower fuel prices and revisions to official data that increased the number of people of working-age in the country. Gasoline demand this year is expected to fall nearly 1% on the year to an average 8.9 million bpd. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeli Baghaei, said Iran and the U.N.’s IAEA have reached an understanding on how “to interact in the new situation” following U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country’s nuclear sites. Platts reported that according to data from Ursa Space, the Chinese SPR was estimated to currently hold about 2213.19 million barrels in August, a nearly 1 million barrel increase from July levels. Total Chinese crude inventories reached a new high in August of 1.23 billion barrels. Valero notified local regulators it has begun maintenance work at its 85,000 b/d Wilmington, California refinery this week. The work is expected to last until the end of the month. Bloomberg reported that California legislators are considering giving Valero Energy Corp hundreds of millions of dollars to cover refinery maintenance costs in a bid to prevent the closure of a San Francisco-area fuel plant. Under such a deal, the state would pay Valero to continue operating its Benicia refinery. The plant is scheduled to close by April.
Oil settles higher after Israeli attack on Qatar (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after the Israeli military said it carried out an attack on Hamas leadership in the Qatari capital Doha, an expansion of its military actions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures settled 37 cents, or 0.6%, higher at $66.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed 37 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $62.63 a barrel. Both benchmarks had gained almost 2% shortly after the Israeli attack on Qatar, but gave up the majority of those gains later as the United States assured Doha that such a thing would not happen again on its soil. "Both the U.S. and Qatar have made it clear they are not seeking further escalation, while the muted reaction from other (Gulf Cooperation Council) members reinforces the view that the risk of a wider regional flare-up remains contained," "For now, geopolitical risk premiums are easing rather than building," L Oil prices also pared some gains because the attack did not create any immediate supply disruption, The oil benchmarks were trading higher prior to the attack on Qatar, supported by the latest oil output increase from OPEC+ being smaller than anticipated, expectations that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions against Russia. Capping oil's gains, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects global crude prices to be under significant pressure in the months ahead due to rising inventories. Physical oil markets also appeared to be softening, with prompt spreads weakening heavily in the Atlantic basin, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. Softer prompt physical markets are typically an indicator of weak demand. "The fact that the market did not respond with such an escalation (in the Middle East) is an indication of how weak the market is in my opinion," Hodes said. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing a report by the American Petroleum Institute. Official EIA data on U.S. stockpiles is due on Wednesday at 10:30 am ET. Traders are also expecting the Federal Reserve, which meets next week, to cut U.S. interest rates. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. U.S. employment data for the 12 months through March was revised lower more sharply than expected on Tuesday, prompting traders to bet that the Fed will cut short-term rates next week and continue, with more in store this year to shore up the labor market..
Doha strike, new EU tariff threat rattle oil market --Global oil markets are once again navigating turbulent waters, with geopolitical shocks from the Middle East and fresh trade maneuvering by Washington combining to keep traders on edge. On Wednesday, crude prices rose modestly after reports of an Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, and confirmation that US President Donald Trump had urged the European Union to impose a 100 per cent tariff on China and India to curb their purchases of Russian crude. At midday trading, Brent crude hovered at $67.09 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $63.32, both slightly higher than Tuesday’s close. The gains, however, were modest — under 1 per cent — underlining that while geopolitical risk premiums are back in play, fundamentals remain weak. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks spiked nearly 2 per cent before retreating after Washington assured Doha that no further Israeli strikes would occur on its soil. The attack in Doha immediately reverberated across the region, threatening to derail fragile ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas mediated by Qatar. “Any escalation involving Qatar — a key mediator and LNG powerhouse — injects uncertainty into the market. But the muted reaction shows traders are unconvinced about sustained supply disruptions,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects. For much of this year, geopolitical flashpoints from Ukraine to the Red Sea have failed to translate into lasting price gains. The underlying drag has been persistent concerns about global demand growth, with the US Energy Information Administration warning this week that rising inventories and Opec+ output increases will cap prices in the months ahead. Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, said the market’s muted response reflects “skepticism that isolated strikes will translate into long-term supply disruptions, especially when demand signals remain weak.” Overlaying the Middle East tensions is President Trump’s latest push to weaponise trade policy in the energy war with Russia. According to sources cited by the Financial Times, Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs of 100 per cent on crude imports by China and India, the two largest buyers of discounted Russian oil since 2022. The move, if enacted, would mark a dramatic shift from sanctions to secondary tariffs, targeting Russia’s biggest remaining revenue lifeline. Analysts warn, however, that such a step could trigger a host of unintended consequences. “Expanding secondary tariffs to include China would be seismic. It could disrupt Russian flows, squeeze supply, and push prices higher. But it risks destabilising EU-China trade and could backfire economically,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. EU officials are reportedly wary. China is the bloc’s second-largest trading partner after the US, making tariffs a politically fraught proposition. India, meanwhile, has deepened its energy ties with Moscow, importing record volumes of Russian crude. For Washington, the strategy carries its own contradictions. Higher oil prices, while hurting Russia, would also fuel inflationary pressures in the US and complicate the Federal Reserve’s expected pivot to rate cuts. “Aggressive tariffs would tighten supply but clash with Trump’s political imperative to lower inflation before the 2026 campaign cycle gains pace,” noted LSEG analysts in a report quoted by Reuters. In the short term, traders expect volatility to remain elevated as headlines from both Doha and Brussels filter into pricing. A weaker dollar, should the Fed cut rates as anticipated next week, could also lend support to crude by making commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. But the medium-term outlook remains capped by oversupply risks. Opec+ has begun gradually raising output, while US shale producers continue to maintain robust production levels. The International Energy Agency has forecast that global oil demand growth will slow sharply into 2026, a trend reinforced by weaker-than-expected Chinese consumption data. “Absent a major and prolonged disruption, oil remains vulnerable to the downside. Structural demand weakness outweighs short-term geopolitical rallies,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Energy market experts argue that she latest developments highlight the increasingly complex intersection of geopolitics, trade policy, and energy security. “For oil markets, it is not just supply shocks but the political tools used — from sanctions to tariffs — that are shaping price expectations.” For now, oil traders are treading carefully, balancing the bullish implications of tighter supply against the bearish weight of slowing demand, they said. The Israeli strike in Doha may prove to be a flashpoint without lasting supply impact, but it underscores the fragility of Gulf diplomacy and the potential risks to Qatar’s pivotal role in global LNG markets. Trump’s tariff gambit, meanwhile, could escalate into a broader trade confrontation with China and India, reshaping global crude flows in ways difficult to predict.
WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest Crude+Product Build Since 2023 --Oil climbed for a third session as investors weighed President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats on Russian crude buyers, the fallout from Israel’s strike in Doha and the outlook for US interest rate cuts. Trump told European Union officials he’s willing to slap new tariffs on India and China, the top importers of Russian crude, in an effort to get Moscow to negotiate with Ukraine - but only if EU nations do so as well. Meanwhile, Israel’s attack targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar’s capital threatens to derail US-led efforts to end the Middle East conflict, reviving geopolitical risk premiums in crude prices. Israel has claimed full responsibility, while Trump distanced himself from the strike. Despite an expected draw, API reported a crude inventory build overnight, but traders shrugged it off... API
- Crude +1.25mm (-1.9mm exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline +399k
- Distillates +1.5mm
DOE
- Crude +3.939mm (-1.9mm exp)
- Cushing -365k
- Gasoline +1.458mm
- Distillates +4.715mm - biggest build since Jan 2025
In an even bigger surprise than API, the official data printed a 3.94mm barrel build in crude stocks (versus a 1.9mm expected draw). Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in 8 weeks and Distillates saw the biggest build since January... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. The build gets more notable as the Trump admin added another 514k barrels to the SPR... US crude production rose back near record highs as the trend lower in rig counts appears to have stalled for now... WTI is holding gains for now despite the big builds... Overall, according to Bloomberg, this is a very big build in total crude and product stockpiles, with builds across the board, leading to a 15.4 million barrel increase. It’s the largest since the middle of 2023.
The European Union Considering a Faster Phase Out of Russian Oil - The crude market continued to move higher on Wednesday on increasing geopolitical tensions. The market remained supported by the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, as several countries condemned the attack. The market opened at its low of $62.72 and continued to trend higher. Geopolitical tensions increased further when Poland shot down drones during a Russian attack in western Ukraine, marking the first time a NATO member fired shots in the war. The oil market was further supported by news that the European Union was considering a faster phase out of Russian oil as part of new sanctions against Russia after U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India. The market rallied to a high of $64.08 in afternoon trading as the market dismissed the EIA report showing builds across the board. It later gave up some of its gains and traded sideways ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled up $1.04 at $63.67 and the November Brent contract settled up $1.10 at $67.49. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.38 cents at $2.3337 and the RB market settling up 1.55 cents at $2.008.On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that a call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will take place this week or early next week.On Wednesday, Poland shot down drones in its airspace with the backing of military aircraft from its NATO allies, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired shots during Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its drones had carried out a major attack on military facilities in western Ukraine but that it had not planned to hit any targets in Poland.European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said the European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Russia after U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian oil. She said the EU was preparing sanctions on ‘shadow fleet’ tankers that transport its oil and third countries that buy it. EU officials are in Washington this week to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, told European leaders last week to stop buying oil from Russia. The EU has already banned imports of seaborne crude oil from Russia, accounting for more than 90% of its Russian oil imports, and imposed a price cap on Russian oil trade. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 585,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 12th, cutting available refining capacity by 154,000 bpd. It added that offline capacity is expected to increase to 702,000 bpd in the week ending September 19th. Magellan Pipeline this week launched a binding open season to gauge customer interest in its proposed 440 mile refined products pipeline running from Texas to Arizona. The Sunbelt Connector pipeline project would have an in-service date of 2029 and have a 200,000 b/d capacity.
Crude Oil Prices Edge Lower As U.S. Inventories Build And Production Hits New Highs Crude oil prices eased slightly in Thursday’s session as the global market absorbed fresh data showing a sharp rise in U.S. inventories and production levels, raising concerns over weakening demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Brent crude futures slipped 0.1% to $67.41 per barrel at press time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 0.3% to $63.50 per barrel. The pullback comes after both benchmarks rallied more than $1 in the previous session, when geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East and Eastern Europe briefly spurred risk premiums. On Wednesday, oil traders had responded to Israel’s strike targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar and Poland’s activation of NATO-backed air defenses to counter suspected Russian drones over its airspace during Ukraine strikes. However, despite the elevated geopolitical backdrop, traders appeared to conclude that neither incident posed an imminent threat to global energy flows. The recent rebound in crude prices, which followed a three-month low recorded on 5 September, has now given way to renewed scrutiny of market fundamentals. Weakening consumption indicators across major economies have heightened supply-demand imbalances. China’s crude imports continue to expand, albeit at a slower pace, while India’s agreements with Russia provide alternative supply channels. Meanwhile, U.S. import volumes remain volatile. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending 5 September, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1 million barrel drawdown. Gasoline stocks climbed by 1.5 million barrels, also defying projections of a decline. Strategic petroleum reserves—excluded from commercial inventory levels—were up 500,000 barrels to 405.2 million. U.S. oil output climbed by 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching approximately 13.49 million bpd for the week ending 16 May, further cementing the country’s position as the world’s leading crude producer. At the same time, U.S. crude imports dropped by 471,000 bpd to 6.27 million bpd, while exports fell by 1.1 million bpd to 2.745 million bpd. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on 10 September, the EIA projected that U.S. production would average 13.4 million bpd in 2025. The build-up in inventories comes amid signals of cooling U.S. economic activity. A weaker labor market and declining producer prices are fueling expectations of slowing demand, further clouding the outlook for oil consumption in the near term.
Oil Prices Soften After IEA Hikes Surplus Forecast-- Oil prices fell Thursday morning, after the International Energy Agency, in its oil market report published Thursday morning, called for an even larger oil surplus this year and next than in last month's report. IEA expected global oil inventories to grow by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2025, a pace the agency called "untenable". Oil futures edged up to close the week on Friday, following fresh UK sanctions on Russian oil trade, and despite U.S. consumer sentiment falling to its lowest... NYMEX-traded WTI for October delivery fell $0.89 to trade near $62.78 bbl, and ICE Brent for November delivery slid $0.87 to $66.62 bbl. October RBOB gasoline futures slid $0.0311 to $1.9769 gal, and the front-month ULSD contract was down $0.0453 to $2.2884 gal. The U.S. dollar index softened in response to a higher-than-expected inflation report, but was still up 0.118 points to 97.865 on the day. While demand growth expectations for 2025 were raised by 60,000 bpd to 740,000 bpd, OPEC's rapid unwinding of production curtailments and solid non-OPEC output growth led the agency to revise its supply growth forecast from 2.5 to 2.7 million bpd, leading to hiked surplus expectations. The report also highlighted global inventories growing for a sixth consecutive month in July, expanding by 26.5 million bbls last month. Global stocks have added 187 million bbls since the start of the year. Despite record production, preliminary data suggested inventories remained relatively unchanged in August as refinery crude oil throughputs surged to a record high 85.1 million bpd. Adding to bearish sentiment, the agency expected global oil inventory builds to extend into 2026, forecasting production to grow by 2.1 million bpd to 107.9 million bpd, in contrast to demand growth of 700,000 bpd. A 200,000-bpd upward revision to 2026 production and an unchanged demand growth figure translated to a larger surplus than previously anticipated.
Oil prices slide 2% on worries about global oversupply, US demand (Reuters) - Oil prices slid on Thursday, settling about 2% lower as concerns over possible softening of U.S. demand and broad oversupply offset threats to output from the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures fell $1.12, or 1.7%, to settle at $66.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 2.0%, to settle at $62.37.The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year due to planned output increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia."Oil prices are falling today in response to bearish IEA headlines, which suggest massive oversupply on the oil market next year," On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise production from October. But in another report, however, OPEC kept non-OPEC supply and demand forecasts for the year unchanged, citing steady demand.The market was torn between a perceived supply shortage due to a rise in tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and actual oversupply from higher OPEC+ production and swelling stocks, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to surge, several trade sources told Reuters on Thursday, with state-controlled energy firm Aramco shipping about 1.65 million barrels per day in October, up sharply from 1.43 million bpd allocated in September.The market is also questioning how long China could continue to absorb barrels and keep Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) inventories low, investors were also watching for further sanctions affecting Russian oil.In Russia, the world's second-biggest producer of crude behind the U.S. in 2024, revenue from crude and oil products sales declined in August to one of the lowest levels seen since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the IEA said.U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jorgensen discussed efforts to restrict Russian energy trade during talks in Brussels, with Jorgensen saying the European Union's planned deadlines were ambitious but there is a need to speed the process.In India, meanwhile, the largest private port operator, Adani Group has banned entry at its ports of tankers sanctioned by Western countries, three sources said and documents show. The move could hit Russian oil supplies for two Indian refiners.U.S. consumer prices in August increased by the most in seven months, fueled by higher housing and food costs. A surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept feeding expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next Wednesday, which could boost economic growth and demand for oil.The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, but offered no clues about its next move. Investors continue to bet the EU economy will need more support next year, yet traders curbed their bets on another ECB rate cut this cycle. Another move is now seen as a coin toss.
Oil jumps nearly 2% after drones strike Russian terminal - Oil prices rose by nearly 2% on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loadings, outweighing pressure from oversupply concerns and weaker U.S. demand risks. The drone attack on Russia’s northwestern port of Primorsk - one of the country’s largest oil and fuel export terminals - led to a suspension of oil loading operations overnight, an official from Ukraine’s SBU security service told Reuters. “Those attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have room to drag down Russian crude and refined product exports,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Brent crude futures rose $1.02, or 1.5%, to $67.39 a barrel by 1328 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.08, or 1.7%, to $63.45. The Kremlin said on Friday that there was a pause in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Negotiators have held three rounds of direct talks this year in Istanbul, most recently on July 23, but the two sides remain far apart on how a possible peace deal might look, which could trigger further Western sanctions against Russia. “Strong sanctions could potentially overshadow the underlying oversupply outlook,” said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye. The Brent and WTI benchmarks had fallen by 1.7% and 2% respectively on Thursday. A monthly report from the International Energy Agency on Thursday said that global oil supply would rise more rapidly than expected this year because of planned output increases by the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. However, OPEC’s own report later in the day made no change to its relatively high forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next, saying the global economy was maintaining a solid growth trend. On the supply side, India’s largest private port operator, Adani Group, has banned tankers sanctioned by Western countries from entering all of its ports, three sources told Reuters and documents show, potentially curbing Russian oil supplies. India is the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, mostly shipped on tankers that are under sanctions by the European Union, the United States and Britain.
Oil Prices Rebound After Early Morning Selloff -Oil prices initially fell due to oversupply concerns but quickly reversed course and surged higher on reports of new risks to Russian output. The price rebound for WTI and Brent crude was attributed to geopolitical factors and the impact of potential supply disruptions from Russia. Oil traders got whiplash today. Prices sank in early trading on oversupply jitters, only to rip higher by late morning as Russia once again stole the show. WTI was last at $63.79, up 2.28%, with Brent climbing 2.40% to $67.96. Natural gas was quieter, nudging up 0.27%. The surge came hours after a very different mood set the tone; concerns over swelling inventories and sluggish demand had pushed crude lower this morning, feeding the familiar narrative of too much oil chasing too few buyers. But markets quickly turned. Reports of fresh risks to Russian output, layered on top of already tightening OPEC+ dynamics, gave traders reason to reverse course. Sanctions chatter and infrastructure vulnerabilities in Russia injected just enough doubt about supply security to trump the glut storyline. In short, when barrels from one of the world’s top producers look even remotely uncertain, bears scatter. The price swing shows just how brittle sentiment has become. Weeks of modest OPEC+ quota hikes have fueled talk of a looming surplus, yet the slightest hint of disruption in Russia—or slowing U.S. output growth—can light a fire under prices. Today’s rally reminds us that oil doesn’t move on tidy balance sheets alone. It moves on geopolitics, whispers of sanctions, and the possibility of supply chains wobbling under pressure. Traders who hit “sell” this morning learned quickly how fast the script can flip. With Brent clawing back toward $68 and WTI holding above $63, the market is sending a simple message: oversupply fears may be real, but they’re no match for the specter of geopolitical risk.
Oil gains weighed down by US demand worries (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack suspended loadings from the largest port in western Russia, but gains were capped by concerns about U.S. demand. Brent crude futures settled at $66.99 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 0.93%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $62.69, a gain of 32 cents, or 0.51%. Early in the day, crude reacted to the drone attack on Russia's northwestern port of Primorsk, which led to a suspension of oil loading operations overnight, an official from Ukraine's SBU security service said. "Those attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have room to drag down Russian crude and refined product exports," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. But later in the day, gains shrank as traders continued to focus on a revised U.S. jobs report issued earlier in the week along with higher inflation figures. "The economic data is not supportive of a rally," "The overall weight is down and the trend is bearish." The U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the U.S. Labor Department said on Tuesday. The department said on Thursday the consumer price index rose 0.4% in August, the biggest gain since January, after increasing 0.2% in July. The markets are also watching for sanctions or tariffs from the Trump administration aimed at reducing use of Russian crude by India and China. "Any potential for the tariffs to India and China to harm exports, then we would see Russian barrels off the market," . The Brent and WTI benchmarks fell by 1.7% and 2% respectively on Thursday. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday global oil supply would rise more rapidly than expected this year because of planned output increases by the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, according to an agency report. However, OPEC's own report later in the day made no change to its relatively high forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next, saying the global economy was maintaining a solid growth trend. On the supply side, India's largest private port operator, Adani Group, has banned tankers sanctioned by Western countries from entering all of its ports, three sources told Reuters and documents show, potentially curbing Russian oil supplies. India is the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, mostly shipped on tankers that are under sanctions by the European Union, the United States and Britain.
Iran Says It's Ready for a Nuclear Deal To Limit Uranium Enrichment and Increase Inspections - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an op-ed published by The Guardian on Sunday that Iran was ready to pursue a nuclear deal that would limit its uranium enrichment and increase oversight of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.The purpose of the op-ed was to tell the UK, France, and Germany to reverse course after the three countries, known as the E3, took action to trigger the “snapback” mechanism of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that will re-impose UN Security Council sanctions. “The three countries want the world to forget that it was the US, and not Iran, that unilaterally ended participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the formal name of the deal,” Araghchi wrote. Araghchi criticized the E3 for backing US demands for zero uranium enrichment and supporting the US-Israeli war on Iran. “It does not make any sense for the E3 to claim participation in a deal pillared on uranium enrichment in Iran while demanding that Iran must disavow those very capabilities,” he said.“Openly cheerleading illegal military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities protected by international law – as Germany’s chancellor has done – does not constitute ‘participation.’ While this lawless behaviour is fueling calls for action to ensure ‘never again,’ Iran remains open to diplomacy. It is ready to forge a realistic and lasting bargain that entails ironclad oversight and curbs on enrichment in exchange for the termination of sanctions,” Araghchi added.
Iran Says Cooperation Deal With IAEA Hinges on Halting of 'Snapback' Sanctions - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that a new cooperation deal Tehran has reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be scrapped if UN Security Council sanctions are reimposed on Iran under the so-called “snapback” provision of the 2015 nuclear deal.“This document and its continuation are conditional on no hostile action being taken against the Islamic Republic of Iran. For instance, if the so-called snapback mechanism is activated, the implementation of this document will also be halted,” Araghchi said on Tuesday after meeting with IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi in Cairo.On August 28, France, the UK, and Germany, collectively known as the E3,took the step to trigger the snapback sanctions and said that Iran has 30 days to offset them. The E3 stated that they wanted Iran to resume full cooperation with the IAEA, but it remains unclear whether they will lift the sanctions after the deal reached in Cairo.Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA following the 12-day US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic over the agency’s role in providing a pretext for the initial attack and its lack of condemnation of the US and Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran also suspects that Israel obtained information about the Iranian nuclear scientists it assassinated from the IAEA. The exact details of the new cooperation deal between Iran and the IAEA have not been made public. Grossi said that it allows for “a clear understanding of the procedures for inspections” and “includes all facilities and installations in Iran, and it also contemplates the required reporting on all the attacked facilities, including the nuclear material present at those.” Araghchi said that the deal “officially recognized that new conditions have emerged” for cooperation between Iran and the IAEA in the wake of the US attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. But he said it does not allow access for IAEA inspectors and that details on inspections still need to be negotiated. “This agreement itself does not create any access. Based on the reports that Iran will provide later, the type of access should be negotiated in due course,” he said.In an op-ed published by The Guardian over the weekend, Araghchi urged the E3 countries to change course on the snapback sanctions, pointing to the fact that it was the US that left the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. He also warned that if the sanctions go through, it could lead to “destructive” consequences and made clear Tehran was ready to face another Israeli attack.“Israel may be pitching itself as capable of conducting war on behalf of the West. But as in June, the truth is that the powerful armed forces of Iran are ready and able to once again pummel Israel into running to ‘daddy’ to be bailed out,” Araghchi wrote. “The failed Israeli gambit this summer cost American taxpayers billions of dollars, robbed the United States of vital hardware that is now missing from its inventories, and projected Washington as a reckless actor dragged into a rogue regime’s wars of choice.”
Israel Attacks Sites Near Several Major Syrian Cities - Israel has reportedly carried out a number of attacks in northern and central Syria this evening, hitting sites near the major cities of Homs, Palmyra and Latakia. Details about the extent of the damage caused are still emerging.The first of the strikes was reported near Homs, hitting a military baseaccording to Syrian media. The size of the strike was unclear though locals reported a substantial explosion from the area of the base. Since this was at night in Homs, the details may not be fully clear until Tuesday.Syrian air defenses were activated during these attacks, and explosions were also reported near Palmyra and Latakia, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting the strike near Latakia was also aimed at amilitary site just south of the city. The Syrian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the strikes as a blatant infringement of regional stability, and accused them of being a part of an ongoing Israeli escalation.Conspicuously absent in all of this is any comment from the IDF. That’s not unheard of, as Israel often attacks Syria and only sometimes comments on why they do so. In April an attack on a military site near Palmyra was carried out mostly without official comment, and to the extent they addressed it at all it was presented as sending a message to Turkey.No casualties have been reported at any of the strikes, though given the time of night such details may simply not be available to local media yet. Israel has carried out scores of strikes on Syria so far this year, killing at least 61 people according to the Syrian Observatory.Last month Israel and Syria were reported to be engaged in direct talksaimed at reducing military tensions. Little has been said of those talks since then though, and given the substantial number of Israeli strikes since then, it seems safe to assume they’re not going particularly well. Israel invaded Syria in December, and has built multiple military sites across the southwest.
Report: Israeli Strike on Homs Targeted Turkish Missile Warehouse - On Monday evening, Israel carried out a series of attacks against sites near major Syrian cities. The first and largest of those strikes was against Homs, though subsequent strikes targeted areas near Palmyra and Latakia.Details were scant and there was never an official statement out of Israel about why they carried out such an attack. A report is quoting an Israeli security official as saying the attack on Homs was about targeting a warehouse holding missiles and air defense equipment from Turkey. Turkey has been supplying Syria with a growing amount of military support, to the consternation of Israel which considers it a rival for regional control.The official is said to have played up the idea of Israel mandating southern Syria being totally demilitarized. It should be noted though that none of these three cities are particularly southerly within Syria. Latakia, one of the targets, is on the country’s far northern coast.In comments that appear to give credence to this, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir commented at a Navy graduation ceremony that they had struck several areas in Syria that “posed a threat to our freedom of action.”Though Syria largely has not resisted the ongoing Israeli invasion of the southwest, they have activated their air defense systems for some of Israel’s airstrikes further to the north, or against the capital city of Damascus. They may consider Syria having a level of air defenses that would allow them to even theoretically oppose unprovoked Israeli strikes to amount to a “threat” to the freedom of action they have generally enjoyed in their ability to attack with impunity.
Israeli Surprise Strike on Qatar Sends Oil Prices Higher -Reports of a surprise Israeli strike on Hamas targets in Qatar jolted markets, lifting Brent briefly above $67/bbl as traders priced in a higher Middle East risk premium and potential supply-security disruptions.
- Following four years of tightness, global LNG supply is set for a prolonged period of oversupply as the United States, Qatar, Canada and even Russia all add hefty volumes of incremental supply from 2026 onwards.
- Simultaneously to the US ramping up Plaquemines and Corpus Christi III, Qatar’s largest expansion since 1997, the 32 mtpa North Field East, will start producing LNG mid-next year.
- Higher supplies should also mean higher LNG demand as the boil-off tends to disincentivize storing gas for long stretches of time, with the IEA expecting a 7% year-over-year increase.
- Whilst LNG prices for October-delivery cargoes now hover within the $11.00-11.50/MMBtu range, leading banks anticipate both JKM and TTF prices to dip into single digits by Q4 2026 and stay below $10/MMBtu for the rest of this decade.
- Russia could become the LNG markets’ black swan factor over the upcoming years as China starting to buy sanctioned gas from the 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 plant could add to the oversupply.
- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) signed a memorandum of understanding with Egyptian authorities to drill five new gas wells in the Mediterranean Sea, boosting the country’s exploration efforts.
- Canada’s Strathcona Resources (TSO:SCR) raised its offer for peer oil sands producer MEG Energy (TSO:MEG), now offering $30.86 per share as it seeks to trump Cenovus Energy’s $27.79 per share bid.
- UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) farmed out a 55% interest in its offshore Block 04 in São Tomé and Principe’s territorial waters to Brazil’s Petrobras and Portugal’s Galp.
- Speaking at the 2025 APPEC conference in Singapore, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) top executive Brant Fish said that the U.S. oil major will invest heavily in petrochemicals in South Korea and cut down on its refining presence in Singapore.
OPEC+ pulled off a deft bit of expectations management—letting chatter build around a large output hike, then delivering far less. Even with an extra ~137,000 b/d coming from the group, Brent has rebounded to around $66.50/bbl, and it briefly jumped above $67 after reports of a surprise Israeli strike on Hamas targets in Qatar. Near-term upside risk also lingers if President Trump follows through on renewed talk of Russia sanctions. Despite initial speculation that eight OPEC+ members could bring as much as 550,000 b/d of production back in October, the oil group agreed to raise collective output by ‘only’ 137,000 b/d to regain market share. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has reacted to the OPEC+ decision by cutting the official selling price for October-loading cargoes headed to Asia by $1 per barrel, dropping it to a $2.20 per barrel premium vs Oman/Dubai. Underwhelming US labor data from last week’s nonfarm payroll data helped push gold prices above $3,600 per ounce for the first time in history, with traders now seeing an almost 90% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in September.
Qatar PM Says Doha Will Continue Role as Mediator, Calls for Regional Response to Israel's Attack - Qatar’s prime minister said on Tuesday that his country would continue its role as a mediator despite the Israeli airstrikes that targeted Hamas officials in Doha, though he noted that the attack had killed the chance for the latest efforts to lead to a ceasefire.“Qatar has spared no efforts and will do everything it can to stop this war in Gaza, but for current talks, I do not think there’s something valid right now after what we saw from today’s attack,” Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani said at a press conference.Al-Thani said that Israel had sabotaged the chances for peace, as Hamas says the officials who were targeted were gathered to discuss a US ceasefire proposal. The Qatari leader also criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he engaged in “state terrorism.” “Does the world need a clearer message than this about who is closing the door to peace? Does the international community need further proof of who the bully in this region is?” he said.Al-Thani said that Qatar has a “right to respond” to the attack and called on regional countries to join. “Today, we have reached a turning point for there to be a response from the entire region against such barbaric conduct,” he said.President Trump is claiming that the strike was Netanyahu’s decision and not his, although some media reports said the US gave Israel the “green light” for the attack and that Trump “blessed” the strikes.“This morning, the Trump Administration was notified by the United States Military that Israel was attacking Hamas which, very unfortunately, was located in a section of Doha, the Capital of Qatar. This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump said that bombing Qatar “does not advance Israel or America’s goals” but added that “eliminating Hamas” was a “worthy goal.” At this point, it appears that the Israeli strikes failed their stated purpose as Hamas says its senior political leaders were not killed. Hamas has said a total of six people were killed, including the son of a senior official, four office staff, and a Qatari security officer.
Qatar Says Israel's Strikes 'Killed Any Hope' for Release of Israeli Captives in Gaza - Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani has said that Israel’s airstrikes on Doha that targeted Hamas officials “killed any hope” for the release of Israeli captives in Gaza. Throughout Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, al-Thani has served as a mediator between Israel and Hamas and said that he had just met with family members of an Israeli who is still being held in Gaza. “I was meeting one of the hostage’s families the morning of the attack,” al-Thani said on Wednesday,” according to NBC News. “They are counting on this mediation, they have no other hope for that. I think that what Netanyahu has done yesterday, he just killed any hope for those hostages,” al-Thani added. On Thursday, al-Thani addressed an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and made similar comments. “Extremists that rule Israel today do not care about the hostages — otherwise, how do we justify the timing of this attack?” he said. The Israeli airstrikes targeted Doha after the US had passed a ceasefire proposal to Hamas. According to Hamas officials, they were gathered to discuss the proposal when the Israeli missiles hit. Despite the attack, al-Thani vowed that Qatar would “continue our humanitarian and diplomatic role without any hesitation in order to stop the bloodshed.” The 15-member Security Council released a statement condemning the Israeli attack, which means it had the backing of the US. “The members of the Security Council expressed their condemnation of the recent strikes in Doha, the territory of a key mediator, on 9 September. They expressed deep regret at the loss of civilian life,” the Council said. However, the US envoy at the meeting defended Israel from charges that it didn’t want a ceasefire. “It is inappropriate for any member to use this to question Israel’s commitment to bringing their hostages home,” said acting US Ambassador Dorothy Shea.
Qatar Says It Reserves Right To Retaliate Against 'Barbaric' Netanyahu -Qatar has threatened retaliation after Israel's strike on Doha Tuesday which killed five top Hamas officials. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in a fresh speech condemned the attack as "state terrorism" on the Gulf country's capital and warned that payback is coming. He said Qatar reserves the right to retaliate, saying, "We've reached a decisive moment; There should be retaliation from the whole region." Referencing Israel's Netanyahu at one point in the address, Thani said that "barbaric actions that only reflects one thing: It reflects the barbarism of this person that is leading the region, unfortunately, to a point where we cannot address any situation and we cannot repair anything, and we cannot work within the frameworks of international laws." The Qatari leader continued of the Israeli prime minister, "He just violates all those international laws" - he said through the translator from the Arabic. But for all the tough talk, the reality remains that Qatar has long been host to major US military and naval bases, especially Al-Udeid Air Base - the largest US installation in the Middle East, and is the operational regional HQ for US Central Command (CENTCOM). And so it would not take drastic action against a close US military ally such as Israel, also given Qatar's military capabilities are miniscule compared to Israel's. The small oil and gas rich GCC nation also does significant lobbying on Capitol Hill. Reflecting this reality, Thani quickly switched to a more restrained tone in his reaction speech at one point: "Mediation and Qatari diplomacy is part of its identity, and it will continue, and nothing will deter us from persisting in this role across the various issues around us in the region, in order to achieve the stability of the region and ultimately the stability of our peoples," he said. So we should expect that absolutely nothing will happen, at least on the military front, but a direct aerial attack on a Gulf state does put the prospect of expansion of the Abraham Accords at a greater distance.
Netanyahu Appears To Threaten More Attacks on Qatar - --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday appeared to threaten more airstrikes on Qatar despite the widespread international criticism of the Israeli attack on the US-allied nation.“You either expel them or you bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will,” Netanyahu said, referring to Hamas political leaders based in Qatar. Hamas has said that the Israeli airstrikes killed five of its lower-level members and one Qatari security officer, but didn’t kill the senior officials whom Israel attempted to target. Israeli media reported on Wednesday that Israeli officials are now doubting that the strikes killed the intended targets.Qatar strongly condemned Netanyahu’s comments and pointed to the fact that it hosts a Hamas office to facilitate negotiations between the Palestinian group and Israel. The Hamas office opened in Qatar in 2012 at the request of the US, according to Qatari officials. Israel also facilitated Qatari payments to Hamas in Gaza for years, and ensured they continuedwhen Doha was considering cutting them off.“Netanyahu is fully aware that the hosting of the Hamas office took place within the framework of Qatar’s mediation efforts requested by the United States and Israel,” the Qatari Foreign Ministry said in a statement.“He is also fully aware of the office’s role in facilitating numerous exchanges and ceasefires, which have been widely acknowledged and appreciated by the international community and have brought relief to Palestinian civilians and Israeli hostages in desperate need of basic humanitarian relief from the ruthlessness that has ensued since October 7th,” the ministry added.Netanyahu compared the attacks on Doha with the US targeting of al-Qaeda following the September 11 attacks, which Qatar rejected. “The false comparison to the pursuit of al-Qaeda after the terrorist attacks is a new, miserable justification for its treacherous practices,” the ministry said. “There was no international mediation involving an al-Qaeda negotiating delegation, with which the United States could engage with international support, to bring peace to the region at the time.”
Israel's Smotrich Says West Bank Villages Should Be Destroyed Like Cities in Gaza After Jerusalem Shooting - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday that villages in the Israeli-occupied West Bank should look like cities in Gaza that have been reduced to rubble in response to the shooting at a bus stop in Jerusalem that killed six Israelis.Smotrich, a West Bank settler who recently proposed a plan to annex 82% of the Palestinian territory, said that the Palestinian Authority must “disappear from the map,” even though after the attack, PA President Mahmoud Abbas condemned “any targeting of Palestinian and Israeli civilians,” and “denounced all forms of violence and terrorism, regardless of their source,” according to a statement from his office.“The State of Israel cannot accept a Palestinian Authority that raises and educates its children to murder Jews,” Smotrich wrote on X. “The Palestinian Authority must disappear from the map, and the villages from which the terrorists came should look like Rafah and Beit Hanoun.”Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that the IDF would escalate its operations following the Jerusalem shooting. At the beginning of the year, the IDF began military operations in the West Bank’s northern refugee camps that involved the destruction of homes and displaced tens of thousands of Palestinians.“Just as we crushed Palestinian terror in the Jenin terror camp and the terror camps in northern Samaria—so we will soon do in additional terror camps. Whoever sponsors terror and directs terror will pay the full price,” Katz wrote on X. Following the Jerusalem attack, Israeli troops conducted a raid in the Jenin refugee camp, which killed at least two 14-year-old boys. The IDF also raided the home of one of the Palestinians accused of being a shooter in the Jerusalem attack in the central West Bank town of Qatana. According to Al Jazeera, Israeli forces arrested the suspect’s father and brother. So far, no group has taken responsibility for the shooting.
Israeli Attacks and Starvation Kill 89 More Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday that Israeli forces killed 83 Palestinians and wounded 223 over the previous 24-hour period as the US-backed Israeli assault on Gaza City and the Israeli strikes in other parts of the Strip continue. On top of the violent deaths, at least six Palestinians died of malnutritionamid the ongoing famine caused by the Israeli siege. The Health Ministry said the starvation deaths brought the “total number of deaths from malnutrition to 399, including 140 children.”Israeli attacks on Tuesday continued in Gaza City as the IDF ordered the entire city to be evacuated. The Israeli military is ordering Palestinians to flee to southern Gaza despite its continued attacks in the area.According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, the bodies of 18 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces were brought to the Nasser Hospital in the southern city of Khan Younis on Tuesday. The news agency said one child was shot and killed by the IDF near an aid distribution point south of Khan Younis. The Health Ministry said that it recorded the deaths of 14 aid seekers and the injuries of 37 over the 24-hour period. Since the end of May, the ministry has recorded the killing of 2,444 aid seekers and the wounding of 17,831.
Yemeni Drone Hits Israel's Ramon Airport - A drone fired from Yemen hit the Ramon Airport in southern Israel on Sunday as the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, continue their attacks in response to Israel’s genocidal war and blockade on the Gaza Strip.According to the Israeli military, the drone hit a passenger terminal at the airport, and shrapnel lightly injured a 63-year-old man, who was taken to a hospital along with a woman who fell while running from the scene. The IDF said it’s investigating why the drone wasn’t intercepted by air defenses.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree took credit for the attack. “A drone targeted Ramon Airport, which, by Allah’s grace, directly hit the airport and caused the airport to shut down and halt air traffic,” Saree said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency.Saree also announced several other drone attacks, but there were no indications that they struck any targets. “The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that they will escalate their military operations and will not back down from their support for Gaza, regardless of the consequences,” Saree said. The latest Houthi attack comes after the Israeli military assassinated the prime minister of the Houthi-led Sanaa-based Yemeni government. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has been threatening Yemen with biblical plagues, signaling Israel wants to escalate its attacks on the country.
Israel Kills at Least 35 in Heavy Airstrikes on Yemen - Heavy Israeli airstrikes targeted Yemen on Wednesday, hitting the capital Sanaa and the Jawf province, killing at least 35 people and wounding 131 more, according to the Yemeni Health Ministry.Health Ministry spokesman Anis al-Asbahi said in a post on X that 28 people were killed in the strikes on Sanaa and seven were killed in Jawf. “In a non-final toll, as civil defense teams, ambulances, and rescue are still searching for missing persons under the rubble and debris, and the number is likely to increase,” he said.Footage from Yemen’s Al Masirah TV shows two young girls being rescued from the rubble in Sanaa. The channel also released photos of children at a hospital, who it said were injured in strikes on the Yemeni capital.According to Al Jazeera, the Health Ministry said the strikes hit civilian areas, including homes in Sanaa’s al-Tahrir neighborhood, a medical facility in the southwest of the city, and a government compound in al-Jawf’s capital, al-Hazm.The Israeli military claimed that the strikes targeted “military camps in which operatives of the terrorist regime were identified, the Houthis’ military public relations headquarters and a fuel storage facility that was used by the terrorist regime.”The Israeli attacks come as the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have continued their attacks on Israel and have vowed that the operations will continue until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade on the Palestinian territory. In the wake of Wednesday’s strikes, Yemeni officials said they would respond.According to Yemen’s SABA news agency, the parliament for Yemen’s Sanaa-based government “emphasized that such actions will not deter Yemenis from fulfilling their national, religious, and moral duties to support the people of Gaza, who endure unprecedented aggression and siege.”
Watch: IDF Helicopters Chase Yemeni Drone For Several Minutes As Airport Under Threat - Israel's skies witnessed a lot of dangerous drone activity out of Yemen on Sunday into Monday. Israel's Ramon Airport in the south of the country was directly struck by one of the drones, resulting in all flights having been grounded. What is unusual is that sirens were not sounded ahead of the attack, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are investigating the incident. Ramon primarily serves the city of Eilat at the southern tip of the country on the Red Sea, and it was completely shut down for 90 minutes after the attack. Videos showed the airport arrivals hall littered with glass as many windows were busted out in the attack. The Houthis owned up to it, stating that its drone "directly hit the airport and caused the airport to shut down, halting air traffic." A 63-year-old man was injured in the attack, but no other casualties were reported. It comes after Israel's main Ben Gurion International Airport has come under repeat ballistic missile attack - though most projectiles have failed to hit the target. Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree declared Sunday the Houthis "will escalate their military operations and not back down from their support for Gaza" - and warned that Israeli airports "are unsafe and will be continuously targeted."
Undersea cables cut in the Red Sea, disrupting internet access in Asia and the Mideast (AP) — Undersea cable cuts in the Red Sea disrupted internet access in parts of Asia and the Middle East, experts said Sunday, though it wasn’t immediately clear what caused the incident. There has been concern about the cables being targeted in a Red Sea campaign by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, which the rebels describe as an effort to pressure Israel to end its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But the Houthis have denied attacking the lines in the past. Undersea cables are one of the backbones of the internet, along with satellite connections and land-based cables. Typically, internet service providers have multiple access points and reroute traffic if one fails, though it can slow down access for users. Microsoft announced via a status website that the Mideast “may experience increased latency due to undersea fiber cuts in the Red Sea.” The Redmond, Washington-based firm did not immediately elaborate, though it said that internet traffic not moving through the Middle East “is not impacted.” NetBlocks, which monitors internet access, said “a series of subsea cable outages in the Red Sea has degraded internet connectivity in multiple countries,” which it said included India and Pakistan. It blamed “failures affecting the SMW4 and IMEWE cable systems near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.” The South East Asia–Middle East–Western Europe 4 cable is run by Tata Communications, part of the Indian conglomerate. The India-Middle East-Western Europe cable is run by another consortium overseen by Alcatel Submarine Networks. Neither firm responded to requests for comment. Pakistan Telecommunications Co. Ltd., a telecommunication giant in that country, noted that the cuts had taken place in a statement on Saturday. Saudi Arabia did not acknowledge the disruption and authorities there did not respond to a request for comment. In Kuwait, authorities also said the FALCON GCX cable running through the Red Sea had been cut, causing disruptions in the small, oil-rich nation. GCX did not respond to a request for comment. In the United Arab Emirates, home to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, internet users on the country’s state-owned Du and Etisalat networks complained of slower internet speeds. The government did not acknowledge the disruption. Undersea lines can be cut in accidents and attacks Subsea cables can be cut by anchors dropped from ships, but can also be targeted in attacks. It can take weeks for repairs to be made as a ship and crew must locate themselves over the damaged cable. The cuts to the lines come as Yemen’s Houthi rebels remain locked in a series of attacks targeting Israel over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. Israel has responded with airstrikes, including one that killed top leaders within the rebel movement. In early 2024, Yemen’s internationally recognized government in exile alleged that the Houthis planned to attack undersea cables in the Red Sea. Several were cut, possibly by a ship attacked by the Houthis dragging its anchor, but the rebels denied being responsible. On Sunday morning, the Houthis’ al-Masirah satellite news channel acknowledged that the cuts had taken place, citing NetBlocks.
Israeli Strikes on Media Offices Kill At Least 25 Journalists in Yemen - -An Israeli attack on Yemen hit the offices of two newspapers in Sanaa, killing dozens of journalists and civilians. The Yemeni Journalists Union condemned the attack, labeling it a heinous war crime. According to the Yemeni Health Ministry, the Israeli strikes hit the offices of the 26 September newspaper and Al-Yemen newspaper, killing at least 25 journalists. 26 September is the military’s media outlet, and Al-Yemen is one of the most read newspapers in the country. The largest journalists massacre in one Israeli strike on Yemen. Massacre of Yemeni journalists: The toll from the Israeli airstrike on Yemen is feared to be extremely high after strikes hit the offices of Al-Yaman and 26 September newspapers. Local sources report that at least… https://t.co/bsJfcXogFC pic.twitter.com/CpqP5mWHco The Yemeni Journalists Union said it “strongly condemns the heinous war crime committed by the brutal Israeli aggression on Wednesday, 10 September 2025, through its direct targeting of the offices of 26 September newspaper and Al-Yemen newspaper in the capital.”Yemeni authorities report that at least 46 people were killed in strikes across Sanaa on Thursday. A military facility and a fuel station were targeted along with the media offices. The death toll is expected to rise as rescue and recovery efforts are ongoing. More than 165 people were injured.The majority of those killed, 38, died in the strikes which targeted residential areas. The latest Israeli strikes in Yemen are part of the ongoing conflict between Tel Aviv and Ansar Allah. Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, control most of Yemen, including the capital city. After Israel began its onslaught and siege of Gaza, Ansar Allah placed a blockade of Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea. In response to the blockade, Israel and the US have repeatedly bombed Yemen, killing a large number of civilians. The strikes have failed to break the blockade, and Ansah Allah has responded by direct attacks on Israel with missiles and drones.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Pipelines, Fuel Supply Hit Hard -Russia’s energy infrastructure has taken a hammering after a string of explosions knocked out three major oil and gas pipelines within a 24-hour period. Ukrainian military intelligence sources confirmed that the Kuibyshev-Lysychansk pipeline in Saratov Oblast—capable of moving 82 million tons of oil annually—was crippled in the early hours of September 8.The line had been supplying petroleum products directly to Russian military units.The Saratov strike followed blasts in Penza Oblast just hours earlier, where at least four explosions ripped through the Zheleznodorozhny district. Those attacks disabled two main gas pipeline tubes with a combined capacity of 2 million bpd, along with two regional lines, according to HUR, Ukraine’s intelligence directorate. Both sets of pipelines were reportedly tied to Russian military operations.Moscow has downplayed the disruption, with state media describing the incidents as “planned exercises” by Transneft Druzhba in coordination with emergency services. Locals were urged to stay calm.This marks the third time in a single day that Russia’s oil and gas arteries have come under fire—an escalation in Ukraine’s campaign to disrupt Moscow’s war machine by targeting energy flows. The strikes are part of a broader pattern since the full-scale invasion began, with Kyiv increasingly relying on long-range drones and sabotage to squeeze Russia’s fuel supply lines.While the full extent of the damage remains unclear, the hits land at a sensitive moment for Russia. Domestic fuel markets are already tight, and the loss of major infrastructure could push Moscow closer to the crisis line.Beyond the pipeline attacks, Ukraine has also stepped up drone strikes on Russia’s refining backbone. Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery—one of the country’s largest with 260,000 bpd of capacity, or 5% of national throughput—was hit again this month, alongside earlier strikes on Rosneft’s Saratov plant (140,000 bpd) and Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery, a key fuel supplier in southern Russia. The Ust-Luga port complex on the Baltic has also sustained heavy damage, with repairs at one unit expected to take six months. With at least half a dozen refineries disrupted in recent weeks, Russia is facing mounting pressure to boost crude exports instead of processing at home—just as the EU and U.S. weigh freshcoordinated sanctions to further choke Moscow’s oil revenues.
India urges BRICS partners to address trade deficits as China calls for unity -- India on Monday urged BRICS members to address their trade imbalances with New Delhi, as the bloc rallied against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs that have unnerved Washington's friends and foes alike.Speaking at the virtual summit, India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said that the country's "biggest trade deficits are with BRICS partners." The bloc, which has Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as key members, has been charged by Trump of pursuing "anti-American policies."Jaishankar was representing India in the absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China last week was seen as signaling warming ties with Beijing at a time when relations with the U.S. have been under strain.India's tone at the BRICS meeting contrasted with that of host Brazil, which charged the U.S. of "blackmail." Brazil, along with India, is among the nations hardest hit by Trump's tariffs, with levies as steep as 50%.China, too, took veiled swipes at Washington's trade policies as President Xi Jinping warned against "Hegemonism, unilateralism, and protectionism.""Trade wars and tariff wars waged by some country severely disrupt the world economy and undermine international trade rules," Xi said, urging the BRICS member nations to stick together in the face of higher tariffs elsewhere.India sees BRICS as mainly an economic initiative, while China and Russia view it more as a geopolitical grouping, said Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow at Chatham House.Indeed, New Delhi has pushed for economic initiatives within BRICS, such as the New Development Bank and an emergency liquidity support financial framework. "In China's strategic vision, BRICS engagement supplements the Belt and Road Initiative's geoeconomic focus and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's geopolitical-security role in expanding China's global influence," the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a research report in March. During a meeting of BRICS trade ministers held in May, India pushed for smoother trade flows and called for stronger cooperation among BRICS members. Chinese imports by India have been on a steady rise in recent years, taking New Delhi's trade deficit with Beijing to a record high of $99.21 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025. China has racked up a $77.7 billion trade surplus with India this year as of August, 16% higher compared to the level a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data released Monday. "The BRICS itself can set an example by reviewing trade flows among its member states," Jaishankar said, adding that India had been pressing for "expeditious solutions" to address trade deficits. Bilateral trade between New Delhi and Moscow also reached a record high of $68.7 billion in fiscal year 2025, with India's increased oil imports contributing to a $59 billion deficit."India has not been able to adequately tap the BRICS markets, despite the fact that imports by all these [BRICS] countries have increased substantially in the last ten years. There is a need to undertake a dedicated initiative to boost exports," a report by Indian think tank Natstrat said in March this year.
'Critically Uneducated': Russia, China Mock EU's Kaja Kallas After Bizarre Commentary - European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is being widely mocked after a clip of her latest remarks on Russia and China went viral starting last week.While speaking at an event hosted by the EU Institute for Security Studies, Kallas presented some strange analysis claiming that Russians are strong in social sciences but weak in tech, and that the Chinese are the reverse. The comments lacked explanation or nuance, and came off as utterly simplistic and based merely on overly broad stereotypes in her mind."Chinese are very good at technology but they are not that good in social sciences," Kallas said. "The Russians… are not good at technology at all, but super good in social sciences."She's also being called out for her reflections on the Soviet Union and China in World War 2. Her comments were a response to President Xi's massive military parade in Beijing. Kallas, who is from Estonia, of course very much hates Russia and so does not want to give credit to Moscow's immense role in WWII against the Nazis. She dismissed the Russians and China's role in defeating the axis powers. On Sunday the Russian foreign ministry blasted her analysis, calling Kallas "critically uneducated". Specifically on her labeling Russian and Chinese societies, the FM spokesperson said-- “On the same note, China would not be able to govern a billion citizens without being strong in social sciences,” Zakharova wrote. “Kallas is critically uneducated.” China's foreign ministry has also responded, saying, "The statement made by the relevant EU official is full of ideological bias and lacks basic historical common sense, and blatantly stokes rivalry and confrontation. This is disrespectful to the history of WW2 and undermines the EU's own interests. It's preposterous and irresponsible." One China commentator, Arnaud Bertrand, concluded: "It takes a lot for China to officially call a senior foreign leader an idiot but that's what they essentially just did."
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