natural gas price at a 41 week low; distillates output at a 37 week high; 2nd highest refinery utilization in nearly 7 years

US oil prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks on an unexpectedly large draw from US oil supplies and as talks on ending the war in Ukraine stalled, increasing the likelihood that Russian oil will remain sanctioned….after falling 1.7% to $62.80 a barrel last week on forecasts for increasing global oil supplies and forecasts for lower prices, as traders awaited the outcome of the Trump-Putin talks, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for September delivery held steady in early ​overseas trading on Monday, as traders awaited clues from a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky as they attempted to end Europe’s deadliest war in 80 years, but edged up after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India's purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine and had to stop, ​t​hen rallied in afternoon trading as a meeting between the U.S. and Ukraine and European allies began, and settled 62 cents or 1% higher at $63.42 a barrel as Trump expressed hope that Monday's summit with Zelensky could eventually lead to a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin….oil prices then moved lower in Asian trading on Tuesday after comments by Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky fueled expectations that the war in Ukraine could move toward a resolution and sanctions on Russian crude could be eased, then dropped further in early New York trading as hopes grew for progress in ending the war in Ukraine, and settled $1.07 or 1.7% lower at $62.35 a barrel as traders weighed the possibility that U.S. efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine toward a peace agreement would lead to an easing of sanctions on Russian oil….the price of the expiring September oil contract steadied in Asian trading early Wednesday, after the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected a decline in US stockpiles, while traders weighed the outlook for Ukraine-Russia truce talks, and held onto the overseas gains in New York after the EIA reported the largest draw from US oil inventories in over two months, and expired 86 cents higher at $63.21 a barrel on the bigger-than-expected weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories, as traders awaited the next steps in ​the talks to end the Ukraine war as sanctions on Russian crude remaining in place, while the more actively traded contract for US light sweet crude for October delivery settled 94 cents higher at $62.71 a barrel….with markets now citing that October contract as the US price of oil, pri​ces rose in early Asian trading, supported by renewed concerns over global supply risks, as escalating tensions could trigger new sanctions on Russia and disrupt global oil flows, and advanced further in a choppy US session after a Trump administration trade official said he expected additional tariffs on India as a result of th​a​t country’s Russian crude purchases, and settled 81 cents higher at $63.52 a barrel on a stalled Russia - Ukraine peace process and ​on signs of strong demand in the US….oil prices advanced​ around the glob​e on Friday, as renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine rattled markets, while U.S. inventory data revealed a sharper-than-expected drop in crude stockpiles, and edged slightly higher in early US trading as hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine faded, but settled 14 cents lower at $63.66 a barrel amid uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine…oil price quotes thus finished the week 1.4% higher, while the contract for US light sweet crude for October delivery, which had ended the prior week priced at $61.98, finished 2.7% higher…

natural gas prices​, on the other hand, finished lower for the eighth time in nine weeks and at ​t​heir lowest settlement since November 4th, as much cooler temperatures were expected to spread across much of the northern half of the Lower 48 through the final stretch of August...after falling 2.5% to $2.916 per mmBTU last week on near record output, above normal supplies, and the apparent end to record hot weather for the season, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for September delivery opened 4.3 cents lower and dipped further early on Monday, as an unsupportive shift to weather forecasts over the weekend piled on to existing bearish fundaments, as production remained steady and storage levels swelled, but reversed those early losses and ultimately closed just​ 2.6 cents lower at $2.890 per mmBTU, as weather forecasts doubled down on a cooler end to August and LNG demand slumped…Tuesday saw the front-month gas contract start 8.1 cents lower and slide to a nine-month intraday low of $2.725 by 11:15 AM, as forecasts for short-term cooling demand decreased, and barely recovered to settle 12.4 cents lower at $2.766 per mmBTU, knocked back by forecasts for diminished demand and steady, strong supply…natural gas prices opened slightly lower Wednesday and traded just a few cents on either side of $2.75 throughout the session, as fundamentals remained largely unchanged, and settled 1.4 cents lower at a nine-month low of $2.752 per mmBTU on near record output from wells with ample fuel already in storage…the September contract opened at $2.790 on Thursday and backed up to the intraday low of $2.775 by 9:05 AM, then trended higher to reach an intraday high of $2.849 at 11:35 AM a​fter the weekly storage publication landed on the low side of market expectations, and settled with a 7.4 cent gain at $2.826 per mmBTU on the smaller-than-expected storage build, recent declines in daily output and an increase in gas flows LNG export plants ….​but natural gas futures fell ​back early Friday, as traders refocused on bearish fundamentals, then tanked around midday as forecasts pointed to the coolest August ​finish in half a century, and settled down 12.8 cents at a nine month low of $2.698 per mmBTU on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage, and forecasts for the weather to remain near normal through early September, leaving natural gas prices down 7.5% for the week​...

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending August 15th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 13 cubic feet to 3,199 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 95 billion cubic feet, or 2.9% less than the 3,294 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on August 15th of last year, but 174 billion cubic feet, or 5.8% more than the five-year average of 3,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 15th of August over the most recent five years….the 13 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was somewhat less than the 22 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and also less than the 29 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as well less than the average 35 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same mid August week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 15th indicated that after a decrease in our oil imports and a big increase in our oil exports, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the thirteenth time in twenty-eight weeks, and for the 26th time in fifty-eight weeks, despite a ​m​odest increase in production from Alaskan wells ….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 423,000 barrels per day to average 6,497,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 958,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 795,000 barrels per day to average 4,372,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,125,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending August 15th, an average of 1,218,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 489,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 55,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 13,382,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,996,000 barrels per day during the August 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 17,208,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 15th, an average of 28,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 827,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending August 15th averaged a rounded 385,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +385,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 827,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 859,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 32,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the ​string of nearly continuous additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,379,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 2.3% less than the 6,529,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 55,000 barrels per day higher at 13,382,000 barrels per day even as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 2,000 barrels per day lower at 13,009,000 barrels per day, because Alaska’s oil production was 57,000 barrels per day higher at 375,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.2% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also up 38.0% from the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 96.6% of their capacity while processing those 17,208,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 15th, up from the 96.4% utilization rate of a week earlier, and the second highest refinery utilization rate since September 7th, 2018…. the 17,208,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 3.1% more than the 16,689,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending August 16th of 2024, but were 2.8% less than the 17,702,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending August 16th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 95.9%, which was within the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

Even with the modest increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was quite a bit lower, decreasing by 259,000 barrels per day to 9,554,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 15th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 10,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was also 2.2% less than the 9,768,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending August 16th of last year, and 3.5% less than the gasoline production of 9,897,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending August 16th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 193,000 barrels per day to a 37 week high of 5,330,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 32,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production increases, our distillates output was 9.0% more than the 4,892,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending August 16th of 2024, but still 0.2% less than the 5,340,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending August 16th, 2019​....

With this week’s ​s​izable decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the eighteenth time in twenty-five weeks, decreasing by 2,720,000 barrels to 223,570,000 barrels during the week ending August 15th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 792,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by more this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 158,000 barrels per day to 8,842,000 barrels per day because our exports of gasoline rose by 194,000 barrels per day to 1,019,000 barrels per day while our imports of gasoline rose by 23,000 barrels per day to 655,000 barrels per day ….Even ​after twenty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past twenty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.3% above last August 16th’s gasoline inventories of 220,597,000 barrels, while they were about 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the big increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 15th time in 33 weeks, increasing by 2,343,000 barrels to 116,028,000 barrels during the week ending August 15th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 714,000 during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased by more this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 266,000 to 3,967,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 289,000 barrels per to 1,152,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 17,000 barrels per day to 124,000 barrels per day... With 47 withdrawals from inventories over the past 81 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 5.5% below the 122,811,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on August 16th of 2024, and about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big increase in our oil exports and the decrease in our imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 23rd time over the past year, decreasing by 6,014,000 barrels over the week, from 426,698,000 barrels on August 8th to 420,684,000 barrels on August 15th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,036,000 barrels over the prior week… After that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were 6% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 25% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of August over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this August 15th were 1.3% below the 426,029,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on August 16th of 2024, and 3.0% less than the 433,528,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on August 18th of 2023, and were 0.2% less than the 421,672,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on August 19th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count was down by one over the week ending August 22nd, as rigs targeting oil decreased by one, while rigs targeting natural gas were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of August 22nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (August 15th) and this week’s (August 22nd) count, the third column shows last week’s August 15th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 23rd of August, 2024…

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New law focused on energy production takes effect — House Bill 15 came into effect Thursday, and it’s meant to empower construction of gas plants across the state. Research fellow of the Buckeye Institute Greg Lawson said this law comes at a time that the demand of electricity is spiking. The bill is meant to increase the incentives for people to produce more electricity in Ohio.Lawson said it also makes things easier for developers to get things going.“It expedites the process for going to the public utilities commission, who has to approve these things,” Lawson said. “It also does some tax code changes that create, shifts the burden around a little bit to make it easier to develop projects.”John Patrick Blackwood, the spokesperson from the Office of Ohio Consumers’ counsel said he’s also on board with this bill. One thing it does is that it ends subsidies that consumers have been paying for over the last five years–subsidies from the two scandal-linked coal plants.“That bill did some great things that are going to support consumers and potentially help get more generation in Ohio,” Blackwood said. “Consumers paid $500 million in subsidies for these two, you know coal burning power plants, one of those in Indiana.”Some experts say there are some problems to consider.Victor Flatt is the Coleman P. Burke Chair in Environmental Law at Case Western Reserve University School of Law.Fracking Flatt said, within the state parks is one of the problems he’s concerned about in this bill.“I would say the noise impact is probably the biggest problem on average,” Flatt said. “But it can intrude with your visuals, it can intrude when they’re doing the construction, it can tie up the roads, it can cause problems with water runoff, various other things.” Flatt said solar and wind can help connect to the grid faster, but the agenda seems to have something else in it. “It just seems like they’re trying to push this through to try to attract data centers,” Flatt said. While Ohio needs environmental regulations, Lawson said, money speaks louder.

EOG's Encino Energy Made Ohio's Top 15 Oil Wells in 2Q -EOG Resources’ Encino Energy brought on Ohio’s largest new Utica Shale oil wells in the second quarter, clocking the play’s top 13 wells, according to newly released Ohio state data. EOG, which began testing the tight Utica’s oil fairway with first IPs in 2022, bought Encino on Aug. 1 for $5.6 billion in cash. In May 2024, it had declared the Utica’s volatile oil window can “compete with the best plays in America.” The combined operators’ second-quarter Ohio oil results totaled 84,220 bbl/d gross, with Encino contributing 68,750 bbl/d and 15,470 bbl/d by EOG. Two more Encino wells rounded out the top 15 largest second-quarter producers. Both came on in the first quarter and were already 29 days old at the start of the quarter. The combined 15 wells produced an average of 1,738 bbl/d each in the second-quarter during their combined 1,260 days online, or 84 days each, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources data. Among the 13 newest wells, Encino’s new four-well Folsam CR HAR pad surfaced 652,896 bbl in three months. The largest, the #205H, made 195,194 bbl in its first 91 days. The other three—#1H, #3H and #5H—made between 137,000 bbl and 165,000 bbl. Encino also brought on the four-well Snyder CR UNI pad, totaling 567,201 bbl in just 71 days online, averaging 1,997 bbl/d per each of the four wells. The #1H made 150,838 bbl. The other three—the #205H, #3H and #5H—made between 128,000 bbl and 149,000 bbl. The five-well Landman GY CEN pad made 672,241 bbl in its first 86 days online, averaging 1,563 bbl/d per well. The two Encino wells in the top 15 that had come online in the first quarter are the Kitzmiller CL KNX #10H and #210H. Already online 29 days, they made another combined 297,465 bbl or an average of 1,634 bbl/d each in the next 91. The 15 Encino wells are in Carroll, Columbiana and Guernsey counties. The wells also made 10.5 Bcf in their 1,260 days online combined, averaging 8.3 MMcf/d per well.

Hope Utilities Secures Deal to Build Natural Gas Pipeline for Data Center Project in Ohio - Pipeline Technology Journal =US-based pipeline company Hope Utilities has entered into an agreement with American Electric Power (AEP) to construct a natural gas pipeline that will supply its fuel cell power station, which is being developed to power a data centre in central Ohio. Announced on Thursday, August 14, the pipeline will be built, operated, and maintained by Hope Utilities' local subsidiary, Northeast Ohio Natural Gas Corporation (NEO). According to Hope Utilities’ release, NEO will also construct and maintain the associated gas facilities and pipelines for the project, including interconnects with interstate pipelines. “Data centre developers will build these facilities in locations that have the reliable and affordable energy resources they need. Hope Utilities and NEO are ready to deliver the natural gas expertise, infrastructure, and resources necessary to move these important projects forward,” he said.The entire project is expected to be completed and commissioned by October 2026, providing the capabilities required to meet the growing energy needs amid the growing number of power-hungry data centres in Ohio. “Ohio is poised to benefit from investments to support data centers,” said O’Brien, emphasizing that data centre investments will “significantly enhance the economic trajectory” of Ohio as a state and the region at large. This pipeline investment is just the start of Hope Utilities and NEO’s support of these projects to provide meaningful economic development opportunities throughout Ohio,” said O’Brien.

Data center in Hilliard area to be powered by new central Ohio natural gas pipeline -- American Electric Power is hoping to develop a fuel cell-powered data center in the Hilliard area that will rely on a natural gas pipeline to be built by a West Virginia company and its Ohio subsidiary. Known as the Scioto Darby Creek Road Fuel Cell System Project, it will be located in a potentially environmentally sensitive area just north of Scioto Darby Creek Road and west of Interstate 270, according to a document filed with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. "I would assume that there are other pipelines already serving Hilliard," said Anthony Sasson, a member of the Darby Creek Association and watchdog of ecological impacts in the area. "If the pipeline is new and goes far enough west, that could be an issue." Hope Utilities announced an agreement to construct the pipeline to supply a fuel cell project being developed by American Electric Power (Nasdaq: AEP) to power a data center in the county. The size and precise location of the data center have not been released. "AEP previously announced an agreement to purchase Bloom Energy fuel cells to use as a generation solution for data centers. The (Public Utilities Commission of Ohio) recently approved AEP’s proposal with the end customer supporting the total cost of the fuel cell projects," Scott Blake, AEP director of media relations, said in an email to The Dispatch. "This pipeline would supply natural gas to one of those projects. Customer information and contract details are confidential." AEP in June announced plans to install onsite fuel cells at facilities operated by Amazon Web Services and Cologix. The fuel cells provide the energy that allows these data centers to begin operations quickly, while the electric grid grows to support their needs, according to the news release. Bloom systems provide energy through chemical reactions from solid oxide fuel cells and natural gas. Under these long-term agreements, AWS and Cologix will cover the full project costs. It was unclear which of the projects would be online first. Blake said that the 4-mile pipeline would act as a connector to a larger gas line. Data centers, typically used by large tech companies Amazon, Google and Facebook, have received scrutiny for their energy consumption and potential to overburden the electrical power grid. Columbus alone has at least 23 data centers, according to a Dispatch analysis earlier this year. Hope Utilities, based in Morgantown, West Virginia, owns natural gas, water and wastewater utility companies in several states, including gas utilities in Ohio and four other states. The companies provide service to more than 200,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Hope Utilities’ Ohio subsidiary, Northeast Ohio Natural Gas Corporation (NEO), will build, operate and maintain the pipeline and associated natural gas facilities for this project. NEO is a regulated public utility that provides natural gas service to more than 36,000 customers in 31 Ohio counties. "Hope Utilities and NEO are ready to deliver the natural gas expertise, infrastructure and resources necessary to move these important projects forward,” Morgan O’Brien, Hope Utilities CEO said in a prepared release. The pipeline project and supporting infrastructure will be complete and in service by October 2026. “Ohio is poised to benefit from investments to support data centers,” said O’Brien. “Data center investments will significantly enhance the economic trajectory of Ohio and the region. Hope is committed to adding to those investments through infrastructure upgrades and other community investments."

OH Supreme Court to Hear Case of Closed AWMS Injection Well, Again - Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve been tracking a story that we consider an ongoing tragedy for more than a decade. American Water Management Services (AWMS) owns a wastewater injection well in Trumbull County, Ohio, that supposedly caused a low-level earthquake (that nobody could feel) in 2014. Actually, there are two injection wells located at the site, both operated by AWMS. They were both “temporarily” shut down by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) following the quake nobody could feel (seeODNR Temporarily Shuts Down Injection Wells After Low-Level Quake). ODNR allowed AWMS to reopen one of the injection wells but denied it the right to reopen the second well. AWMS said it makes no economic sense to reopen just one of the wells and has been locked in a legal battle to reopen the shuttered well and get compensated by the state for forcing it out of business (missed revenues). The Ohio Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case tomorrow—for a third time.

OH Republican Officials Squabble in Public Over Injection Wells - Marcellus Drilling News - According to a leftist Democrat publication, Signal Ohio, what was “supposed to be a sleepy, county-level Republican meeting where political allies get on the same page” turned into a shouting match between Marietta City Council President Susan Vessels (a Republican) and State Senator Brian Chavez (a Republican and Chairman of the Senate Energy Committee). The heated discussion revolved around wastewater injection wells and their proximity to city water supplies. Chavez is the former CEO of DeepRock Disposal Solutions, which currently operates four injection wells near Marietta and has applied to build a fifth.

Cover Story: Utica Shale Boom Part II? - WFMJ.com -news video w/ oilfield activity background

Ohio academy expands welding, heavy equipment programs — Utica Shale Academy’s new interior welding lab is almost finished, with work expected to wrap up in the next two weeks. The 5,000-square-foot facility, located next to the school’s outdoor welding lab at 83 E. Main St., will be used for welding and heavy equipment programs. It will feature 20 welding bays, a plasma cutter, a pipe beveler, and a workspace for heavy equipment training. Ground was broken in March after PDDM Solutions of Canonsburg, Pa., was awarded the $907,000 construction bid. FMD Architects of Fairlawn designed the project. With additional welding bays added, the final cost rose to about $1.5 million, funded through an Appalachian Community Grant and Ohio House Bill 2. Superintendent Bill Watson said coursework will be held in the new building, with three teachers sharing a classroom. The project replaces earlier plans for a three-story structure after funding secured by then–state senator, now Congressman, Michael Rulli came in at a lower amount. Utica Shale Academy was the first recipient of Gov. Mike DeWine’s $500 million Appalachian Community Grant program, which also funded improvements to the Williams Collaboration Center. That building now has new offices, cafeteria upgrades, and an updated air system. Watson credited Rulli, State Rep. Monica Robb Blasdel, and State Sen. Al Cutrona for helping secure support for the project. A ribbon-cutting is planned for Oct. 3. Enrollment at the academy is rising. Watson said 52 more students are enrolled compared to last year, with 15 new students joining in the past two weeks. The school graduated 49 students this year, and the current senior class is about 60. The academy serves about 170 students in grades 7–12. Founded a decade ago, it focuses on career and technical education for at-risk students and offers certifications to prepare them for the workforce.

DEP: Monaca Shell plant's 'high-priority' Clean Air Act violations 'not an imminent threat'- - A Shell plastics plant in the Ohio River Valley has been issued three new High Priority Violations (HPVs) as of June, bringing the facility to a total of six violations in 2025, already surpassing the previous year, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports.The EPA defines HPVs as a "subset of violations of regulations authorized by the Clean Air Act that warrant additional scrutiny" to ensure state and local agencies respond to them in an appropriate manner.Though the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) told 21 News that HPVs are "typically not items that pose an imminent threat to the public," the EPA additionally describes the violations as "most likely to be significant for human health and the environment."The latest violations state that Shell exceeded the legal limits for nitrogen oxides, toulene, benzene, formaldehyde and other fine particulate matter. DEP described these violations as "exceedances of Shell’s Twelve Month Rolling Total limit for nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from the facility" and told 21 News that "these exceedances are a subject of a plan approval application that DEP is currently reviewing." Beaver County Marcellus Awareness Community (BCMAC) stated in a Tuesday press release that the public, especially residents in the surrounding area, have been left in the dark about Shell's recent violations and the potential health risks they pose."Shell violated air pollution laws in a way that the federal government itself considers a 'high priority' but no one prioritized informing our communities. Real people live near this plant. Families. Children. People deserve transparency from the billion-dollar corporation polluting their air and from the regulators whose job it is to protect us," BCMAC Executive Director Hilary Starcher-O'Toole said in the release.DEP told 21 News that it is not required by law to provide public notice of permits, violations or inspections but does so anyway as a "public courtesy." According to DEP, information on the Monaca Shell facility can be found on the department's public E-Facts page and on the southwest community information page of their website. In 2023, DEP sought to hold Shell accountable for the facility exceeding its emissions limits. The oil company agreed to pay $10 million to the state, including roughly $5 million in civil penalties and $5 million toward funding local environmental projects. Since construction of the Monaca facility began in 2017, Shell has accumulated nearly 50 Notices of Violation, according to BCMAC. However, the company has not been issued a formal monetary penalty for the noncompliance since May 24, 2023, when the company was fined $4,935,023 by the EPA for Clean Air Act violations.

SRBC Stops Water Withdrawals for Fracking Use at 47 Locations -- Marcellus Drilling News - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its highly dysfunctional and irresponsible counterpart, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals and consumptive use for responsible and safe shale drilling. The SRBC also tells shale drillers when to stop withdrawing if low water flow (i.e., drought) conditions exist. And that’s what the SRBC did earlier today. The agency, via its Hydrologic Conditions Monitor, warned shale drillers that, at 47 listed locations (all in Pennsylvania), they must stop water withdrawals until streamflow reaches a specific “trigger flow” target (different for each location).

‘Black Goop’ Spills into Susquehanna River from Closed Eureka Plant - Marcellus Drilling News --Once upon a time, Eureka Resources operated three shale wastewater recycling facilities in the Marcellus region, one in Bradford County, PA, and two in the Williamsport, PA, area (Lycoming County). One year ago, MDN brought you the news that Eureka had “temporarily” closed the Bradford site and had permanently closed the two sites in Williamsport (see Eureka Temporarily Idles Bradford County Shale Wastewater Plant). In June, MDN reached out to the company for comment on why it had not resumed operation at the Bradford site. We got no response. Now comes word that one of the closed facilities in Williamsport is leaking an “oily substance” that found its way into a storm drain and from there, into the nearby Susquehanna River. A fisherman reported it looked like a “black goop” when reeling in his line.

Feds won’t confirm safety findings on Mountain Valley pipeline - Federal pipeline safety regulators are refusing to release information about their handling of a safety inspector’s complaint that the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline was built unsafely.The operator of the pipeline in Virginia and West Virginia said regulators at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration are satisfied with the company’s handling of the inspector’s complaints. But the agency won’t corroborate that, saying it will “neither confirm nor deny the existence” any complaint or investigation. That has unsettled some people who live along the 3½-foot diameter pipeline.“If there’s no problem with those welds, why won’t they release the information?” said Maury Johnson, a West Virginia landowner with about 2,000 feet of pipeline crossing his farm.

Big Green-Owned NY Politicians Pressure Hochul to Block Trump Pipes - Marcellus Drilling News - Big Green is keeping up the pressure on New York Governor Kathy Hochul to block two natural gas pipeline projects that have roared back to life at the prompting of President Trump. Just a week and a half ago, a Big Green rent-a-mob of some 400 (paid) protesters held a rally in New York City and proceeded to march across the Brooklyn Bridge to register their opposition to new natural gas pipelines (see Big Green Marches on Brooklyn Bridge to Protest NESE, Constitution). Barely a week later, Big Green keeps up the pressure, this time by sending a letter signed by 130 New York elected politicians, bought and paid for by Big Green, to Hochul, urging her to block the two projects.

Canada Wants to Dump Marcellus Gas, Source from W. Canada - Marcellus Drilling News --Over the years, we’ve written extensively about natural gas flowing from the Marcellus into Canada. While several pipelines connect to Canada and flow our gas to our cousins to the north, the most prominent such pipeline is the Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP), which travels from New England north into Canada, carrying M-U gas along its route. Some of our “cousins” to the north are now advocating to replace natural gas from the U.S. (from the PA Marcellus) with gas from thousands of miles away in Western Canada. Why? Because they hate Donald Trump.

PHMSA Looks to Get Biden-Derailed LNG by Rail Back on Track - Marcellus Drilling News --In January, three leftist judges who sit on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), one appointed by Joementia, one by Lord Obama, and a third by George H.W. Bush (Bush the 1st), threw out a rule the U.S. Department of Transportation had adopted during President Trump’s first term which allowed liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be transported by train (see DC Circuit Dems Overturn LNG-by-Rail Reg from Trump’s 1st Term). The law-abiding Trump administration recently published changes to its LNG rules to comply with the court’s order. However, Big Green is VERY concerned that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) has (1) carved out a loophole, and (2) is looking to reintroduce a full-blown LNG by rail regulation that this time would pass muster in the courts.

U.S. Propane Stocks Build Above Industry Expectations as Exports Lag Year-Ago Levels -- The EIA reported total U.S. propane/propylene inventories had a build of 2.63 MMbbl for the week ended August 15, which was more than industry expectations for an increase of 2.2 MMbbl and the average build for the week of 1.5 MMbbl. Total U.S. propane stocks are now at 91.2 MMbbl, which is 836 Mbbl, or 1% less, than the same week in 2024 and 1 MMbbl, or 1%, less than the 5-year maximum. Inventories are 9.6 MMbbl, or 12%, above the 5-year average. Weekly exports of propane reported by the EIA were about 1.7 MMb/d, up 55 Mb/d from the previous week but below the year-to-date average of 1.8 MMb/d. Reported exports are below the 4-week average of 1.75 MMb/d and below the 2 MMb/d reported in the year-ago week.

Black Bear Transmission (Southeast Pipeline Co.) Selling to Enstor - - Marcellus Drilling News - Black Bear Transmission (BBT), the owner of nine regulated short pipeline transmission systems in the Southeastern U.S. totaling approximately 1,700 miles of pipeline, with a throughput capacity of about 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), is selling itself to Enstor Pipeline Holdings, LLC, for an undisclosed sum. Black Bear’s pipelines interconnect with 16 major long-haul pipelines and storage facilities across seven states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Believe it or not, there is a connection to the Marcellus/Utica.

USCG Backs Commonwealth LNG, Says Rising Ship Traffic Demands Tighter Coordination - The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has determined Commonwealth LNG’s facility designs are safe for the Calcasieu Ship Channel, but cautioned that growing congestion will require operators to cooperate closely. In a response to FERC, USCG officials disagreed with Venture Global Inc.’s request for an additional review of Commonwealth’s design and traffic studies, ruling that reports from 2022 would be sufficient. In July, Venture had asked Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff for assurance that increasing activity around its Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal and other projects wouldn’t disrupt its natural gas shipments.

Regulatory Tailwinds, Surging Global Demand Drive Historic U.S. LNG Buildout -The U.S. LNG industry is booming nearly 10 years after the first cargo sailed from the Gulf Coast, lifted by a favorable regulatory environment, a competitive landscape and end-users that continue to see a role for natural gas in the future, among other factors. Chart showing North American LNG projects by country, divided into existing and under-construction facilities with sendout capacity in million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Three of the four positive final investment decisions (FID) this year have been taken on U.S. projects, with Woodside Energy Group Ltd.’s Louisiana LNG, Venture Global Inc.’s CP2 LNG and another expansion at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi LNG terminal all crossing the finish line. The floating Southern LNG project in Argentina was also sanctioned this year. In North America, project developers have raised nearly $37 billion so far in 2025, which surpassed last year’s levels and is closing in on the record $54 billion raised in 2023, according to Poten & Partners.

What’s Ahead for U.S. LNG amid Rapid Expansion? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow. NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, is joined by LNG Allies CEO Fred Hutchison for a wide-ranging conversation to discuss the historic buildout of natural gas export infrastructure along the Gulf Coast.

9:10 PM

U.S. LNG Growth Spurs Excelerate’s Plan for Caribbean Natural Gas Supply Hub -Excelerate Energy Inc. management expects surging U.S. LNG supply to unlock more natural gas opportunities in the Caribbean as it plans to leverage its new assets to create a regional export hub. Bar chart of annual Caribbean Islands LNG imports by origin country from 2020 to 2025, showing the United States as the dominant supplier, with additional imports from Nigeria, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, Mexico, Algeria, Spain, France, Norway, Brazil, and others. Imports rise steadily from about 1.0 Mt in 2020 to nearly 3.5 Mt in 2024, before easing slightly in 2025. Data source: Kpler. During the quarter, the Texas-based company closed a transaction valued at $1.06 billion to acquire Jamaican gas and power assets from New Fortress Energy Inc. Excelerate is now working to integrate the terminals at Montego Bay and Old Harbour LNG, as well as a power plant, into its plans to expand LNG trucking and bunkering from the island. CEO Steven Kobos said the portfolio of contracts in Jamaica creates a natural destination for the 0.7 million tons/year (Mt/y) of volumes the company will begin receiving from the second phase of Plaquemines LNG starting in 2027.

U.S. natural gas storage levels remain above average through injection season –The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that working natural gas inventories will reach 3,872 billion cubic feet (Bcf) by the end of October 2025, about 2% higher than the five-year average for that period. Inventories grew rapidly from late April through early June, with seven consecutive weeks of net injections over 100 Bcf each—the longest streak since 2014. U.S. natural gas production outpaced natural gas consumption during the start of the 2025 injection season. At the start of the injection season in late March, storage was 4% below average, but by August 8, it was 7% above the 2020–24 average, as production outpaced consumption.The injection season generally runs from April through October, when injections into storage are typically greater than withdrawals. The latest data from our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report show total natural gas inventory was 7% above the five-year (2020–24) average as of August 8, compared with the start of this injection season, when it was 4% below average for the week ending March 28. Although weekly net injections are expected to slow through October due to rising demand for power generation and liquefied natural gas exports, storage levels remain strong. The South Central, Midwest, and East regions drove recent gains, with South Central inventories forecasted to finish at their highest level since 2016, while other regions are expected to align closely with five-year averages.

Gas demand at two of the top US LNG plants declines (Reuters) - Two of the United States' largest liquefied natural gas export plants recorded major declines in demand for natural gas on Monday, suggesting parts of their facilities might be down, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Cheniere's (LNG.N), opens new tab Sabine Pass export facility in Texas, which utilizes up to 4.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, was down to 3.7 bcf, and Sempra's (SRE.N), opens new tab Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana, which processes 2 bcfd, was down to 1.3 bcf, according to LSEG data. Cheniere declined to comment, while Sempra did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Sabine Pass is the United States' largest LNG plant and Cameron the fourth largest. Together they have helped keep the U.S. as the world's largest LNG exporter since 2023. Monday's drop in consumption from those two facilities pulled the day's demand down to 14.7 bcf, the lowest level in two months, according to LSEG data. U.S. natural gas futures fell about 1% on Monday morning, with front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling 2 cents to $2.90 per million British thermal units.

LNG slump, cooler weather data snuff out rally in natural gas futures -- Nymex natural gas futures reversed early losses Monday but ultimately closed lower as weather forecasts doubled down on a cooler end to August. The September Nymex contract settled down 2.6 cents at $2.890/MMBtu on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 3.0 cents to $2.570, weighed down by milder air bringing relief from summer heat to eastern states. “Natural gas continues to drift lower with summer on the downswing,” Pinebrook Energy Advisors’ Andy Huenefeld, managing partner, said. August weather has been consistently warm “but not extreme, keeping cooling demand elevated and supporting stronger spot pricing across all regions,” Huenefeld said. “Even so, the forward curve remains under pressure as attention shifts to the anticipated late August cooldown.”

With supply abundant and demand easing, natural gas futures falter again --Natural gas futures failed to muster momentum on Tuesday, held back by forecasts for diminished demand and steadily strong supply. Following a 2.6-cent decline to start the week, the September Nymex gas futures contract fell by a steeper 12.4 cents on Tuesday to settle at $2.766/MMBtu. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. followed suit and shed 4.5 cents to $2.525. While above-average temperature reigned across most of the Lower 48 on Tuesday, heat was projected to begin fading by midweek in northern markets, according to NatGasWeather. Milder conditions were then expected to spread across much of the northern half of the Lower 48 by next week, curbing cooling demand substantially in the final stretch of August. Forecasts show a “not nearly hot enough pattern” across the northern half of the United States in the last third of August, the firm said.

US Natural Gas Prices Drop 4% on Record Output - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a nine-month low on Tuesday on near-record output, ample fuel in stockpiles and forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand through early September than previously expected. Another factor weighing on gas prices was a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants due to small reductions at several facilities. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 3.7%, to $2.782 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since November 8. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through September 3, which is cooler than previously expected. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Hurricane Erin, which was near the Bahamas, would move north and then east off the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week without hitting land. The storm, however, could cause some tropical storm force winds in eastern North Carolina on Thursday. The NHC said another system in the Atlantic Ocean behind Erin had a 60% chance of strengthening into a cyclone over the next week as it moves west toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Even though storms can boost gas prices by knocking Gulf of Mexico gas production out of service, analysts have said storms are more likely to cut demand and prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking power out to millions of homes and businesses, reducing the amount of gas that electric generators need to burn. Only about 2% of all U.S. gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, while more than 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Climb 3% on Small Storage Build, Higher LNG Flows (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Aug. 21 on a smaller-than-expected storage build, recent declines in daily output and an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $2.826 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Aug. 20, the contract closed at its lowest since November 8 for a second day in a row. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 13 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended August 15. That was smaller than the 22-Bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 29 Bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 35 Bcf over the 2020 to 2024 period. Analysts said the build was smaller-than-usual due to increased cooling demand during hot weather last week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 Bcf/d in July. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 3.6 Bcf/d to a preliminary six-week low of 106.4 Bcf/d on Thursday since hitting a daily record high of 109.8 Bcf/d on July 28. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through September 5, which is about the same as previously expected. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 110.8 Bcf/d this week to 106.8 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 Bcf/d so far in August, up from 15.5 Bcf/d in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 Bcf/d in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to 15.5 Bcf/d on Thursday, up from an average of 14.2 Bcf/d over the prior three days due to reductions at several plants, including Venture Global LNG's 1.6-Bcf/d Calcasieu in Louisiana, Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bcf/d plant in Louisiana, and Freeport LNG's 2.1-Bcf/d plant in Texas.

US natgas prices fall 5% to 9-month low on near-record output, ample gas in storage — U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a nine-month low on Friday on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage, and forecasts for the weather to remain near normal through early September. That price drop occurred despite an increase in daily gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as some units exited brief outages in recent days. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.8 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $2.698 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since November 8. For the week, the contract fell about 8%, putting it down for a fifth week in a row for the first time since December 2023. Futures prices have dropped by about 24% during those five weeks. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a couple of disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean had a chance of strengthening into tropical cyclones over the next week or so, but expected none to hit the U.S. mainland during that time. One system, however, with a 40% chance of turning into a cyclone over the next seven days, was headed west toward Barbados and other Caribbean islands. Hurricane Erin, meanwhile, was expected to weaken as it swirls northeast toward Iceland. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July. . Despite hotter-than-usual weather earlier in the summer, record output allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. Analysts said there was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.0 bcfd this week to 106.7 bcfd next week and 104.7 bcfd in two weeks. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise from an average of 14.2 bcfd from Monday to Wednesday to 16.2 bcfd on Friday, with increases at several plants, including Venture Global LNG's 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu facility in Louisiana, Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, and Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. U.S. LNG exports will soar by roughly 10% a year through 2030 as energy firms double their LNG production capacity, according to analysts, providing a shot in the arm to the country's maturing shale industry, which has seen growth slow and costs rise.

Texas AI, LNG Demand Raising Houston Ship Channel Prices, Mexico’s Natural Gas Costs -The boom in natural gas power demand for artificial intelligence (AI) in Texas and LNG along the Gulf Coast is real and reflected in forward prices at a key benchmark for Mexico's natural gas deals. Chart showing NGI’s Daily Houston Ship Channel natural gas price compared with South Texas pipeline exports to Mexico from August 2024 to August 2025, highlighting price fluctuations between $2-8/MMBtu and export volumes ranging from 3.5-5.5 Bcf/d. U.S. natural gas production, fueled by the Permian Basin, is at record levels, but the supply and demand balance could soon swing, according to NGI forward price data. NGI’s daily cash market price at Houston Ship Channel (HSC) averaged $2.715/MMBtu on Monday (Aug. 18). NGI’s Forward Look data shows HSC fixed prices rising to $4.107 in early January, 2026. By the start of January 2027, the price would reach $4.632.

Devon Confirms Decade-Long Deal with Centrica to Supply U.S. Natural Gas -Devon Energy Corp. has inked a 10-year agreement to sell 50,000 MMBtu/d to global trader Centrica plc. chart showing NGI's Waha natural gas spot price Expand The deal was announced by Devon executives during the recent second quarter conference call. However, the counterparty was not disclosed. Centrica Energy, the UK-based trading arm, said Devon’s gas volumes are to be delivered beginning in 2028 and be equivalent to five LNG cargoes a year. Volumes are to be indexed to Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas hub.

BKV Builds Even Bigger Natural Gas Portfolio in Barnett, Nabs Gunvor for Carbon-Sequestered Supply -With a queue of LNG export projects underway and another queue of hyperscalers advancing data centers, BKV Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the Barnett Shale of Texas, is forging a bevy of deals with operators that want low-carbon supply. BKV map showing natural gas hubs and LNG terminals near its Barnett Shale acreage CEO Chris Kalnin, CFO David Tameron and upstream President Eric Jacobsen shared a microphone recently to discuss second quarter results. The talk centered around two recent transactions that would expand the natural gas inventory and advance carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) solutions. “The second quarter was marked by significant macro and regulatory events that have all strengthened the business environment for BKV across our natural gas, carbon capture and power businesses,” Kalnin said. “In particular, the macro backdrop for natural gas remains bullish.

As Permian E&Ps Shift to Natural Gas-Rich Zones, Horsepower Demand Follows, Says Kodiak Chief - Permian Basin explorers are shifting to “deeper, gassier development zones,” opening up a broad growth path for Kodiak Gas Services Inc., one of the largest natural gas contract compression firms in the Lower 48. Pie chart illustrating Kodiak Gas Services’ fleet horsepower profile. The chart shows that 79% of the company’s total compression fleet horsepower comes from large units exceeding 1,000 horsepower, while 21% comes from smaller units under 1,000 horsepower. Data source: Kodiak Gas Services Inc. The company, headquartered north of Houston in The Woodlands, deployed 31,800 hp of compression units during the second quarter, CEO Mickey McKee told investors during the recent second quarter conference call. Fleet utilization increased to 97.2%, a 290 basis point (bp) increase from 2Q2024. Large horsepower “is being effectively fully utilized at over 99%,” he said.

Gas outflows to Mexico high on strong Permian production - Exports of natural gas from the Permian Basin directly to Mexico averaged 2.0 Bcf/d during the week ending August 18, which is in line with previous peak summer levels. After a very strong start to summer, outflows to Mexico fell in July and early August, but the past two weeks have been back at that peak level, as can be seen in the green line in the chart below. Depending on Mexican power demand, peak outflows could last into September before tapering off as the weather cools in the fall. Outflows have been aided by the robust Permian supply picture. Production averaged 21.8 Bcf/d over the past week. After remaining relatively flat for most of this year, production has climbed this summer. This climb has started to put downward pressure on Waha cash prices as takeaway capacity has filled. There is no new capacity due online until next year, which may limit supply growth in the short term.

Oil and gas companies are betting big on data centers - Companies that provide drilling and oil field services are struggling as falling prices soften the outlook in the U.S. oil patch.But one of the country’s largest oil field service companies is outperforming expectations in part to a surprising source: its work with data centers.Houston-based Baker Hughes saw its net income rise by 21 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared with same period a year earlier. The company’s performance contrasts with competitors Halliburton and SLB, which posted year-over-year net income declines of 33 percent and 9 percent, respectively.Baker Hughes’ success in attracting data center contracts underpins a hope from the oil and gas industry that increasing power needs at data centers will be a boon for infrastructure usually seen in areas that produce oil and gas.

Pemex to Overhaul Major Crude Unit at Texas Refinery in October, Sources Say (Reuters) — Pemex, Mexico's national oil company, is preparing for the "big block" overhaul at its 312,500-barrel-per-day (bpd) Deer Park, Texas, refinery to begin in early October, people familiar with plant operations said on Aug. 15. The refinery's 270,000-bpd DU-2 crude distillation unit (CDU), the larger of two at the refinery, will be shut for the planned overhaul that will last about 60 days, the sources said. A Pemex spokesperson did not immediately reply to a request for comment. DU-2 breaks down crude oil into feedstocks for most other units at the refinery. While it is shut, the 70,000-bpd fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU), 70,000-bpd diesel-producing hydrocracking unit (HCU) and 92,000-bpd coker will be shut along with other units because of the lack of feedstocks, the sources said. The 70,000-bpd DU-1 CDU will remain in operation while DU-2 is down for the overhaul. FCCUs use a catalyst under high heat and pressure to convert gas oil into unfinished gasoline. HCUs use a catalyst under high heat and pressure in the presence of hydrogen to convert gas oil into gasoline. Cokers break down gunky, tar-like residual crude oil into either motor fuel feedstocks or petroleum coke, which can substitute for coal.

Arizona Chamber praises new interstate natural gas pipeline - The Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry is excited about the future, thanks to a deal between state utilities and Transwestern Pipeline Co. The company will build a new interstate natural gas pipeline from west Texas into Arizona. Danny Seiden, president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber, told The Center Square that Arizona’s economy will benefit in areas such as construction and labor costs. Sponsored “More importantly, more natural gas coming into our state for generation purposes is a huge win for a state that is growing like ours,” said Seiden. Gas is less expensive than alternative forms of energy, according to Seiden. He said it will allow Arizonans to keep air conditioners running for less money and noted manufacturers will keep making goods at a cheaper price. Still, environmental groups are not happy with pipelines of any kind. The Sierra Club, for example, envisions “a future that is no longer dependent on polluting fossil fuels.” To do that, the organization states on its website that “we must stop the expansion of fracked methane gas and dirty oil,” which are transported via pipelines. “Building and expanding pipelines will further lock us into a future powered by fossil fuels, instead of the clean energy that is readily available now,” said the Sierra Club. But Seiden told The Center Square that Arizona is a model state when it comes to balancing environmental impacts with economic growth.

US oil and gas M&A roars in 2024, hitting $206.6bn - US oil and gas mergers and acquisitions roared back to life in 2024, with deal value more than tripling year-on-year. Transactions totaled $206.6 billion, up from just $47.9 billion in 2023, according to data highlighted by EY and other industry trackers.That surge reflected a clear strategic shift: rather than funneling record profits into dividends and buybacks, companies reinvested in scale. Exxon Mobil epitomised this approach, completing its $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May and pushing its total deal value to $84.5 billion for the year. This boom came at a time when companies were rebalancing capital priorities. Shareholder distributions fell by a quarter to $29.2 billion, while exploration and development spending slid 7% to $85.5 billion.Sector profits also softened, dropping 10% to $74.8 billion as commodity prices retreated. Even so, the appetite for consolidation was clear. The number of publicly traded upstream firms contracted from 50 to 40 in 2024, with those remaining producers accounting for roughly 41% of US oil and gas output. EY notes that integration costs in energy are relatively low — around 3.5% of target revenue — making it easier for firms to execute large-scale transactions compared to industries such as technology or health care.Momentum stalls in 2025The momentum that defined 2024 has cooled in 2025. In the first quarter, deal activity totaled $17 billion, bolstered largely by Diamondback Energy’s transactions. By the second quarter, however, the market slowed sharply.Total deal value fell to $13.5 billion, a 21% decline from the prior quarter and nearly 60% lower than the first half of 2024. Only two transactions, EOG Resources’ $5.6 billion purchase of Encino Acquisition Partners in Ohio’s Utica shale and a royalty acquisition by Viper Energy, accounted for more than three-quarters of the total.

The Race Is On – The Efforts to Develop More Crude Oil Pipeline Capacity From Alberta to Cushing - A few months ago, Enbridge unveiled its plans to expand its massive Mainline and smaller Express/Platte crude oil pipeline systems into the U.S. Midwest/Great Plains. We blogged about those plans, and followed up with a look at how the incremental volumes of Western Canadian crude on the Mainline and Express/Platte might move south from PADD 2 to where they’re wanted most: the Gulf Coast. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss efforts to piece together a more direct pipeline route from Alberta to Cushing and on to the Texas/Louisiana coast. Two of the surest bets in the North American energy space these days are that (1) Western Canadian production of heavy crude oil will continue rising and (2) new pipeline takeaway capacity will be needed — sooner or later — to handle those increasing volumes. In Here, There and Everywhere, we discussed Enbridge’s plan to spend up to C$2 billion (US$1.5 billion) by 2028 to improve the efficiency and reliability of its 3.28-MMb/d Mainline pipeline system from Alberta to the Midwest. We noted that Enbridge is investing another C$1.5 billion (US$1.1 billion) by 2027 on a multiphase optimization project that will boost the system’s capacity by 150 Mb/d — and maybe more, if demand warrants. In addition, the company is looking to add up to 30 Mb/d of capacity to its 310-Mb/d Express-Platte pipeline system, which runs from Hardisty, AB, to Wood River, IL, just west of the Patoka, IL, crude oil hub. More recently, in Take the Long Way Home, we looked at where those incremental barrels being piped south to PADD 2 (Midwest/Great Plains) would end up and, just as important, how they would get there. As we explained, most of those barrels will be heavy crude from the Alberta oil sands and, given that PADD 2 refineries can’t shoehorn much more low-API oil into their crude slates, almost all of the incremental imports will need to flow through the Midwest to the Cushing, OK, hub and on to refineries and export terminals along the Gulf Coast.We noted a few possibilities for enhancing the pipeline infrastructure south of the Mainline and Express/Platte systems, including a 100-Mb/d expansion of Enbridge’s 700-Mb/d Flanagan South Pipeline (light-purple line in Figure 1) from the Mainline’s Flanagan, IL, hub to Cushing. Another possibility is Energy Transfer and Enbridge’s proposed Southern Illinois Connector project (dashed dark-green line), which would allow more heavy crude to flow southwest from Flanagan on Enbridge’s Spearhead Pipeline (dark-purple line), then east on its Platte Pipeline (dark-pink line) to Wood River, east from Wood River to Patoka (on the Southern Illinois Connector), and finally south on the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP; aqua line) to Nederland, TX. (Energy Transfer holds a 38% ownership interest in ETCOP and Enbridge owns a 28% stake — most midstreamers prefer to keep crude oil on company-owned pipelines to optimize efficiency and to earn fees each leg of the journey from production area to end user.)Today, we shift our focus to another Enbridge-focused option we’ve heard is under very active consideration. It would make extensive use of existing pipelines between Western Canada and the Cushing hub, but would also require major capital investments to expand pipeline capacity along the routes. In addition to Enbridge’s Flanagan South expansion and Southern Illinois Connector plans we discussed above, we’ve heard the company is also well along in developing an Express/Platte-based route for moving more Western Canadian heavy barrels to Cushing. We are not privy to all the details, but our understanding is that the basic plan would be to increase the capacity of both the Express and Platte pipelines (light-pink and dark-pink lines, respectively, in Figure 2 below) and also make changes to Enbridge’s crude oil terminal (largest green tank icon) in Salisbury, MO, which has seven tanks with a combined shell capacity of 840 Mbbl. With those changes, and an enhanced interconnection between the Platte and Flanagan South pipelines at Salisbury, Enbridge would be able to transport substantial incremental volumes of heavy crude down Express, Platte and Flanagan South (light-purple line) to Cushing. (Note: Express’s current capacity is 310 Mb/d and Platte’s capacity is 164 Mb/d from Casper, WY, to Guernsey and 145 Mb/d from Guernsey to Wood River.)

WBI to receive $500M state financial guarantee to build natural gas pipeline in North Dakota • The North Dakota Industrial Commission on Thursday awarded WBI Energy an up to $500 million financial guarantee to build a pipeline that will bring natural gas to the state’s eastern communities. WBI’s project, which it calls Bakken East, is expected to transport about 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day to eastern North Dakota. Bringing natural gas from the Bakken to the eastern part of the state will help North Dakota’s overall economy, Gov. Kelly Armstrong said. Right now, the eastern part of the state only gets gas from the Viking Gas Transmission pipeline, which spans the U.S. and Canada, so WBI’s project will give eastern North Dakota a more secure power supply, he added. “Communities need gas to grow,” said Armstrong, who chairs the Industrial Commission. “We are taking a product that we have in excess that is stranded in the Bakken, and we are going to be able to move it across the state to people who need it.” The pipeline also will support continued oil and gas development in the Bakken, Armstrong said. The state has had a program to encourage businesses to build natural gas pipelines connecting to eastern North Dakota for over 15 years, though the program initially lacked funding. The Legislature in 2023 made $30 million per year in financing available, which the 2025 Legislature then voted to increase to $50 million per year. WBI Energy, a subsidiary of MDU Resources, proposes building the first phase of its pipeline from McKenzie County to Washburn, and the second phase from Washburn to Mapleton, just west of Fargo. The company also plans to build an extension from Jamestown to Ellendale. WBI’s timeline is to have phase one in service in November 2029, and phase two in service in November of 2030. WBI has not disclosed the total project cost. Justin Kringstad, executive director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, has said he estimates a project of this scope would cost $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion. The project would be built entirely in North Dakota but would be classified as an interstate pipeline since it would connect with other existing pipelines that leave the state. For this reason, it would be permitted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, not the North Dakota Public Service Commission. Intensity Infrastructure Partners also applied for the state support. Representatives of the companies presented their project proposals to the Industrial Commission in July. Intensity representatives said the first phase of the pipeline from Watford City to Underwood was firm, but the company was still securing commitments for a second phase to the Fargo area. North Dakota is purchasing capacity on the pipeline as a financial backstop. The state plans to eventually transfer pipeline capacity to private businesses. According to Kringstad, there are already companies expressing interest. However, if North Dakota is unable to transfer its pipeline capacity, the Pipeline Authority could work with a gas marketing firm to try to recoup the state’s investment, Kringstad said. Justin Kringstad, executive director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, and Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring listen to discussion about two pipeline project proposals during the Aug. 21, 2025, meeting of the North Dakota Industrial Commission. (Photo by Mary Steurer/North Dakota Monitor) In a worst-case scenario, the state would have to shoulder the full $500 million, or $50 million a year for 10 years. To finance this, it would have to take out a loan from the Bank of North Dakota, which would ultimately be repaid with state dollars from the Strategic Investment and Improvements Fund.

Planned restart of California oil production faces legal challenges – Oil and gas production resumed on May 15 that had been out of service for 10 years after an oil spill off the California coast, with the restart of the Santa Ynez Unit in the Santa Barbara Channel expected to boost U.S. energy supplies by up to 50,000 barrels per day by year-end 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Legal challenges remain, however. Litigations involve the environment, oversight approval involving Santa Barbara County, and accusations from the lieutenant governor and State Lands Commission she leads. The three platforms that comprise the Santa Ynez Unit – Harmony, Heritage and Hondo – tap into an offshore reservoir containing approximately 190 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves, representing nearly 80% of reserves in Pacific Northwest states and about 3% of total U.S. reserves, the bureau says in a release. Platform Harmony began production on May 15 at a rate of 6,000 barrels a day. The Santa Ynez unit includes 112 wells located 5 to 9 miles offshore in federal waters, three offshore platforms, a pipeline system, and an onshore oil and gas processing facility at Las Flores Canyon. In the year before the 2015 shutdown, the three Santa Ynez Unit platforms produced an average of about 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent each day. Restarting production at the Santa Ynez Unit is “a significant achievement” that aligns with the Trump administration’s energy dominance initiative, said bureau Principal Deputy Director Kenneth Stevens. “President Trump made it clear that American energy should come from American resources," he said. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement had expected production would resume on Platform Heritage in July and Platform Hondo in August. Stevens said second-term Republican President Donald Trump’s leadership and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum's commitment turned a decade-long shutdown into a comeback story for Pacific oil production. “In just months, BSEE helped bring oil back online safely and efficiently – right in our own backyard," said Stevens. "That's what energy dominance looks like: results, not delays." The 2015 spill occurred when a 24-inch buried pipeline owned by Plains All American Pipeline ruptured near Refugio State Beach in Santa Barbara County, releasing 140,000 gallons of oil, some of which flowed into the Pacific Ocean and soiled miles of beach. After a cleanup and then years of litigation and class action lawsuits, Plains All American agreed in 2024 to pay $230 million to the fishing industry and shoreline residents and to settlements totaling $72.5 million with California State Lands Commission and Aspen American Insurance. In February 2024, Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp. bought the dormant Santa Ynez Unit from ExxonMobil, which never repaired the assets. In late May this year, Sable said it had hydrotested seven of the eight sections of the unit’s onshore pipeline and only one final test would be required. The company said it had obtained all permits from state and county governments necessary to resume production. Sable says it has added new safety measures that include a total of 27 emergency shutoff devices and round-the-clock leak detection.

Supply Glut Pressuring Canada Natural Gas Prices as LNG, Domestic Demand Slowly Ramp -Immense oversupply of natural gas in Western Canada has outweighed any bullish price impacts of the country’s nascent LNG export industry, but that dynamic could change over the coming years, according to industry experts. (chart showing NGI's NOVA/AECO C forward natural gas price) The Shell plc-led LNG Canada liquefaction terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia (BC), sent out its first cargo on June 30, offering a long-awaited outlet for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) molecules. Prices at the NOVA/AECO C hub in southern Alberta routinely trade at a discount to U.S. benchmark Henry Hub because of chronic oversupply in the basin and insufficient pipeline capacity to more lucrative markets. “I mean, of course it’s a huge positive,” Liberty Energy Inc. CEO Ron Gusek told NGI in reference to LNG Canada entering service. “I don’t think that alone is going to move the needle on AECO differentials.

Gunvor Deepens North American LNG Push with Amigo LNG Deal in Mexico — The Offtake --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 0.85 million tons/year (Mt/y): Gunvor Group Ltd. is still on the hunt for North American LNG volumes, this time south of the border. A Singapore-based unit of Gunvor has signed a 20-year, 0.85 Mt/y agreement for offtake from the proposed Amigo LNG project at the Port of Guaymas in Sonora, Mexico. Gunvor previously made arrangements for offtake from Tellurian Inc.’s Driftwood LNG and Energy Transfer LP Lake Charles facility, but those agreements ultimately expired. It still holds tentative or binding agreements for between 1-3 Mt/y from the proposed Delfin, Lake Charles and Texas LNG projects.
• 19%: Asia’s traditional LNG buyers are on track to reclaim the title as the global center of demand, according to shipping firm Flex LNG Ltd. In its half-year results report, the LNG carrier owner forecast that Japan could be the largest importer of super-chilled gas for the first time since 2021. The supply balance shuffle was largely attributed to China, which saw a 19% reduction in LNG imports in the first six months of the year. India also experienced an 11% year/year drop, shifting more cargoes to South Korea and Taiwan.
• 15 months: European benchmark prices are continuing to drop despite a decline in hydroelectric generation during searing summer heat. The prompt Title Transfer Facility contract dropped below the $11/MMBtu mark Wednesday, falling to the lowest level in almost 15 months. The price of landed LNG in the European Union was almost 60 cents cheaper at $10.40, according to NGI calculations and EU price assessments. Meanwhile, TTF futures through the fourth quarter climbed a cumulative 5% as traders expect LNG competition to heat up, according to trading firm Mind Energy.
• 2 Bcf/d: Two of Freeport LNG’s trains have tripped since the beginning of the week, pulling U.S. feed gas demand downward from near-peak highs. The 15 Mt/y capacity export facility in South Texas reported a compressor issue Monday that tripped Train 1 and caused flaring for 9 hours. By Tuesday night, another compressor issue caused a trip on Train 2 that lasted until Wednesday morning. Freeport’s feed gas demand averaged around 2 Bcf/d in July, according to pipeline nomination data.

US resumes imports of Venezuelan oil under new license -Two tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude reached US waters on Thursday, marking the first US imports of the South American country's oil following a new license granted by Washington, vessel tracking data showed. The US Treasury Department last month issued a restricted license to Chevron allowing the US company to operate in the OPEC country and export its oil after a three-month pause triggered by more strict policies towards sanctioned Venezuela. The vessels Mediterranean Voyager and Canopus Voyager loaded Venezuelan Boscan and Hamaca crudes earlier this month after negotiations with PDVSA, which is Chevron's partner in several joint ventures, according to LSEG data and documents from the state company. The tankers plan to discharge at Port Arthur, Texas, and New Orleans, Louisiana. Two other Chevron cargoes that set sail from Venezuela this month are also on their way to the United States. Chevron's chief executive Mike Wirth earlier this month said the flow of Venezuelan oil to the US would resume in August in limited volumes. Chevron had not had access to Venezuelan crude since April, when PDVSA canceled a handful of cargoes it had scheduled for the company due to payment problems related to the sanctions. Chevron, which in the first quarter exported some 252,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil to the US, typically processes a portion of the crude at its own refineries and sells the rest to independent refiners, including US Valero Energy and PBF Energy. Venezuela's government rejects the US sanctions and has said they amount to an economic war against the nation.

European gas hits 15-month low -- Dutch TTF prices have fallen below $10/MMBtu for the first time since late May 2024. Prices, which have been trending down since early August, hit a new low amid the bearish sentiment in the market, especially in Asia. Asian demand is weaker due to higher LNG inventories in China, less demand for power for air conditioning due to a cool spell, and ample LNG supplies in the region. Despite the downward trend, TTF prices are expected to stabilize in the coming month as increased competition for cargoes from outside the region and higher cooling demand are likely to be offset by ample pipeline supply and higher renewable generation. As summer gives way to fall, the market can be expected to tighten somewhat; however, increasing production from the U.S. may have a downward impact on prices, especially in the face of high storage levels. There is still a risk to prices for natural gas should tariffs with the U.S. and/or its trading partners change in the coming months.

European Natural Gas Prices Edge Higher as Ukraine Peace Talks Fuel Uncertainty — LNG Recap --European natural gas prices swung higher Monday amid uncertainty ahead of a meeting at the White House to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. The war has upended global energy flows since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gained six cents to close at $10.72/MMBtu as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders arrived at the White House to meet with President Trump. Zelenskyy was expected to hear a plan from Trump to cede land in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the land deal during a meeting with Trump in Alaska on Friday.

Ukrainian man arrested in Italy over Nord Stream pipeline blasts (AP) — A Ukrainian man suspected to be one of the coordinators of undersea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany in 2022 was arrested in Italy on Thursday, authorities said.The 49-year-old was detained in the early hours in San Clemente, a village inland from Italy’s Adriatic coast and 11 kilometers (7 miles) from the resort of Rimini, after Italian authorities were alerted to his possible presence in the country, police in Italy said.Officers raided a bungalow where the suspect was staying with his family for a few days. Police said he surrendered without resistance.The man was detained on a European arrest warrant that was issued Monday by German authorities. German federal prosecutors identified him only as Serhii K. in line with local privacy rules.He was taken to jail in Rimini after his arrest. It wasn’t immediately clear how soon he might be handed over to German authorities. Undersea explosions on Sept. 26, 2022, damaged pipelines that were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The damage added to tensions over the war in Ukraine as European countries moved to wean themselves off Russian energy sources, following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Prosecutors have given little detail so far on their investigation, but said two years ago they found traces of undersea explosives in samples taken from a yacht that was searched as part of the probe.In a statement Thursday, German prosecutors said Serhii K. was one of a group of people who placed explosives on the pipelines and is believed to have been one of the coordinators. They said he is suspected of causing explosions, anti-constitutional sabotage and the destruction of structures. The suspect and others used a yacht that set off from the German port of Rostock, which had been hired from a German company using forged IDs and with the help of intermediaries, prosecutors said.

BlackRock’s GIP leads $11B deal for Saudi gas assets -- BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and a group of investors have signed an $11 billion lease deal with Saudi Aramco, acquiring infrastructure tied to the $100 billion Jafurah gas project and leasing it back for 20 years. The agreement includes creating the Jafurah Midstream Gas Company, with Aramco holding a 51% stake and the GIP-led group the remainder. The transaction, which imposes no limits on production, is part of Aramco’s broader push to raise international capital by monetizing infrastructure assets while focusing investments on higher-return core activities. Aramco, central to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification strategy, is developing Jafurah to fuel domestic power plants and exports as the kingdom prepares for a post-oil future. The deal strengthens BlackRock’s footprint in the Middle East, following its 2021 investment in Aramco’s gas pipeline network and expansion across the Gulf. Aramco executives emphasize the strategy as a way to “unlock capital” from low-return infrastructure.

Qatar to supply 40% of new global LNG by 2030 amid geopolitical tug-of-war -Qatar is undertaking one of the world’s largest LNG expansion programs, set to boost output from 77 mtpy today to 142 mtpy by 2030. The emirate has carefully balanced ties between East and West, first leaning toward China with long-term LNG contracts, but later signing major deals with Germany, the U.S., and European allies.Liquefied natural gas (LNG) became the key global emergency energy source from the moment that Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Unlike pipelined energy that requires time-consuming infrastructure build-out and contract negotiations before it can be moved anywhere, LNG can be bought in the spot market when required and move swiftly to wherever it is needed. As increasing sanctions have hit Russia’s previously enormous global oil and gas exports, LNG’s crucial importance to the world’s energy balance has, if anything, increased. Against this backdrop, the centrality of the small Middle Eastern emirate of Qatar in the global energy market has dramatically expanded and is set to do so further. Its position as one of the world’s top LNG exporters will be bolstered as from the middle of next year by the first LNG exports from Phase 1 of the giant North Field East (NFE) expansion project. This is part of a broader output expansion programme that will see the emirate’s LNG production jump from the current 77 million metric tonnes per year (mtpy) to 110 million mtpy by end-2026, to 126 million mtpy by end-2027 and to 142 million mtpy by end-2030. By that time it is forecast that Qatar will account for at least 40% of all new LNG supplies across the globe. The geopolitical importance is not lost on any of the world’s major powers.Qatar’s geographical positioning between the two great Middle Eastern powers (Saudi Arabia and Iran) and their principal superpower sponsors (respectively, the U.S., China, and Russia) has long required it to play a delicate diplomatic balancing act between the competing sides. However, from around a year before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the emirate appeared to be veering more towards the China-Russia sphere of influence, given the flurry of new long-term LNG contracts signed with Beijing’s firms during that period. This began in March 2021, with the signing of a 10-year purchase and sales agreement by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and Qatar Petroleum (QP) for 2 million mtpy of LNG. December 2021 saw another major long-term contract for Qatar to supply China with LNG, on that occasion, a deal between QatarEnergy and Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co for 1 million mtpy of LNG, starting in 2024 and ending in 2034, although it could be extended. Several other major deals followed. China and Russia had always thought that Qatar might be predisposed towards joining their bloc, given that the emirate shared its principal gas reservoir asset (North Field, or ‘North Dome’) with neighbouring Iran (South Pars), a key ally of both major powers. This 9,700 square kilometre reservoir was, and remains, by far the biggest gas resource in the world, holding an estimated 51 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of non-associated natural gas and at least 50 billion barrels of natural gas condensates. Following the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or ‘nuclear deal’) with Iran in May 2018, senior figures from Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and Qatar’s Energy Ministry began a series of meetings to agree a new North Dome-South Pars joint development plan.

Sanctioned Russian LNG Carriers Head Toward Asia Amid Ukraine Talks - Four sanctioned Russian vessels appear to be heading to Asia with cargoes from Arctic LNG 2 following U.S. and Russian talks in Alaska last week. Bar chart showing Russian Federation annual LNG exports by destination region from 2022 to 2025. Exports were around 33 million tons in 2022 and 2023, slightly higher in 2024, then dropped below 20 million tons in 2025. Europe and Asia accounted for most volumes, while exports to the Americas and unknown destinations were minimal. Data compiled by NGI from Kpler. Since late June, Russian-controlled LNG carriers have loaded and idled around PAO Novatek’s 10.8 million ton/year capacity facility in the Arctic Circle despite U.S. sanctions. Earlier in the month, the Christophe De Margerie became the fourth vessel to load at the facility after a six-month quiet period. Now, all four vessels are headed on a similar route to East Asia with indications that at least two ships could land in China, according to Kpler’s predictive shiptracking data. Most of the vessels began moving eastward Friday (Aug. 15), the same day President Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Related Tags

India’s Gas Import Bill Falls 9.4 per cent To $4.8 Billion In FY26 -India’s natural gas import bill fell 9.4 per cent to $4.8 billion in the first four months of FY26, compared with $5.3 billion in the same period of FY25, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). During April–July FY26, the country imported 11,534 million standard cubic metres (mmscm) of LNG, a 12.4 per cent decline year-on-year. In July alone, the bill dropped 20 per cent to $1.2 billion, while import volumes also slipped 20 per cent to 2,946 mmscm... India’s natural gas consumption fell 7.8 per cent to 23,134 mmscm, while domestic production declined 3 per cent to 11,754 mmscm. State-owned ONGC produced 6,129 mmscm, down from 6,271 mmscm a year earlier, with output remaining below target. Experts attribute the stagnation to ageing fields operated by ONGC and Oil India...

TotalEnergies contemplates next move after offshore drilling setback | African News Agency -TotalEnergies E&P South Africa and its partners are contemplating their next move having been dealt a huge blow when the Western Cape High Court recently halted their offshore oil exploration plans. The court set aside the government’s decision to grant environmental authorisation for offshore drilling in Block 5/6/7, along the South-West Coast to TotalEnergies EP South Africa. The court has sent the matter back to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) for a fresh decision. Total intends to transfer the environmental authorisation to Shell. The ruling follows a legal challenge brought by environmental rights organisations, The Green Connection and Natural Justice, arguing that Total’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report failed to properly assess the socio-economic impact of the proposed project because it did not assess the socio-economic impact which a well blowout and consequent oil spill may cause on the fishing industry and small scale fishers, among others. Judge Nobahle Mangcu-Lockwood ruled that Total must be afforded the opportunity to submit new or amended assessments, as the case may be, to cure the deficiencies identified in the first to fifth grounds of review of the judgment. She also said that public participation must be conducted in regard to the new and/or amended assessments submitted by Total, before the government decided on the matter. TotalEnergies E&P South Africa said along with its joint venture partners, they are the process to “legally assess the judgement in more detail and decide on the course of action”. “TotalEnergies E&P South Africa acknowledges the decision of the High Court of South Africa to set aside the Environmental Authorisation granted in April 2023 for further exploration in offshore Block 5/6/7 and to remit the matter to the decision-maker for reconsideration following requested additions. Although the Company announced its exit from this block in July 2024, it remained fully committed to respecting the judicial process to its term and to engaging continuously with all its stakeholders. From the outset of the exploration project, Block 5/6/7 joint venture complied with all required local regulations, in particular environmental and social,” Total Energies said. Reacting to the court outcome, the the African Energy Chamber (AEC) said the ruling was a setback for the country’s energy security. “South Africans deserve energy security, economic opportunity and industrial growth. Oil and gas exploration, development and production offer the promise of achieving these goals. Standing in the way of responsible oil and gas development does not protect our future, it jeopardises it. We must work together to responsibly harness our resources, end energy poverty and give our people the chance to prosper. “In opposing vital projects such as those led by TotalEnergies and Shell, groups such as The Green Connection and Natural Justice continue to demonstrate their commitment to disrupting development in Africa,” said AEC executive chairperson, NJ Ayuk.

MoE responds to Battambang oil spill - Environment Minister Eang Sophalleth is leading a team to address environmental damage after a train derailment on Saturday in Tuol Ta Ek village

'Maharaja tariffs': Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro's fresh attack on India over Russian oil; calls it 'laundromat' for Moscow - Times of India -- US President Donald Trump's trade counsellor Peter Navarro on Friday accused New Delhi of acting as a “laundromat for the Kremlin” by purchasing discounted Russian crude oil, refining it, and selling the products at premium prices worldwide. Navarro, said India’s actions were “perpetuating the war” in Ukraine, dismissing claims that Russian imports were essential for India’s energy security. “Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India bought virtually no Russian oil... The argument now, when this percentage has gone up to 30-35%, that somehow they need Russian oil, is nonsense,” Navarro said. He alleged that Indian refiners were “profiteering” from the arrangement, adding: “Russian refiners have gotten in bed with Italian refiners in a game in which they get cheap Russian crude at a discount. Then they make refined products, which they sell at premium prices into Europe, Africa and Asia.” Navarro linked the practice directly to Russia’s war effort, claiming that money from these transactions was fuelling Moscow’s weapons production. “India doesn't appear to want to recognise its role in the bloodshed... It's cosying up to Xi Jinping. They don't need the (Russian) oil. It's a refining profiteering scheme. It's a laundromat for the Kremlin,” he said. While he described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as “a great leader”, Navarro appealed to India to reconsider its stance: “What you're doing right now is not creating peace. It's perpetuating the war.” The Trump aide defended Washington’s decision to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, which took effect in August and the punitive tariff which will take effect on August 27, arguing that New Delhi had long maintained “higher tariffs, Maharaja tariffs, higher non-tariff barriers” while running a “massive” trade surplus with the United States. “In India, 25% tariffs were put in place because they cheat us on trade. Then 25% because of the Russian oil... That hurts American workers and businesses. Then they use the money that they get from us when they sell us stuff to buy Russian oil, which then is processed by refiners... but then the Russians use the money to build more arms and kill Ukrainians. So American taxpayers have to provide more aid... That’s insane,” Navarro said, adding that “the road to peace runs through New Delhi.” Navarro’s remarks come amid broader debate in Washington on how to handle India’s balancing act between the West, Russia and China. Former US ambassador Nikki Haley has urged Trump to rebuild ties with New Delhi, calling India a “prized free and democratic partner” against Beijing’s rise. Meanwhile, economist Jeffrey Sachs has condemned the tariffs as “bizarre” and “very self-destructive of US foreign policy interests”, warning that they risk uniting BRICS countries against Washington. India has pushed back strongly. External affairs minister S Jaishankar said the logic behind targeting India was flawed, given that China is the largest purchaser of Russian oil and the EU remains Moscow’s biggest buyer of LNG. “We are very perplexed at the logic of the argument... We are a country where the Americans have said for the last few years that we should do everything to stabilise the world energy market, including buying oil from Russia,” Jaishankar said. Ministry of external affairs also issued a statement reaffirming that India’s imports were based on “market factors” and aimed at ensuring the “energy security of 1.4 billion people”. It called the additional tariffs “extremely unfortunate”, stressing that India would “take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.”

Oil Prices Steady Ahead of Trump-Zelensky Meeting - Oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses Monday morning ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Concerns around Russian oil supplies, fanned by President Trump warning of "severe consequences" should Russia not agree to a ceasefire deal, faded after the President on Friday signaled no urgency to ramp up sanctions enforcement or implement additional punitive tariffs on main buyers of Russian oil like China. Oil prices were little changed to end the week on Friday but were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks, and the largest since early July. NYMEX-traded WTI for September delivery rose $0.14 to trade near $62.94 bbl, and ICE Brent for October delivery gained $0.12 to $65.97 bbl. September RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0099 to $2.0824 gal, while the front-month ULSD contract slid $0.0108 to $2.2142 gal. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.173 points to 97.885. Following the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska last Friday, the U.S. President in a social media post shifted responsibility for ending the war to Ukrainian President Zelensky, further easing Russian supply woes. Trump on Friday also said he is not ready to increase tariffs on imports from China to dissuade buyers of Russian oil. An op-ed published in the Financial Times on Monday, in which White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro strongly criticized India for funding Russia's war via oil purchases, however, reignited supply concerns ahead of the meeting later today.

Oil prices rise after Trump-Zelenskiy meeting - Oil prices rose on Monday, after the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents held talks in Washington in the wake of an inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska on Friday Brent crude futures rose 75 cents, or 1.14%, to close at $66.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 62 cents, or 0.99%, to settle at $63.42 a barrel. Last week Brent eased by 1.1% while WTI dropped 1.7%. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met as they attempt to reach a peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. Investors are watching for clues on potential ramifications for global oil supply, with potential for either a tightening of sanctions or steps toward reconciliation. "I don't believe the oil market has priced in a full peace dividend that potentially could see prices of crude and EU gas suffer further setbacks," said Saxo Bank commodities strategist Ole Hansen. Trump told Ukraine on Monday to give up hopes of getting back annexed Crimea or joining NATO, emerging more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. The Alaska summit ended with no agreement to resolve or pause the war, though Trump emerged from talks more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal rather than a ceasefire first. Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India's purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine and had to stop, reviving concerns about supply flows. "India acts as a global clearing house for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs," Navarro said. The statement triggered some buying interest in the market, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said: "The U.S. adviser's sharp words on India's Russian crude imports, paired with postponed trade talks, revive concerns that energy flows remain hostage to trade and diplomatic frictions, even as peace prospects in Ukraine brighten."

Optimism About Bringing an End to the Russia-Ukraine War - The crude market settled higher on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and expressed optimism about bringing an end to the Russia-Ukraine war following an inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit on Friday. In overnight trading, the market traded lower as President Trump emerged more aligned with Russia on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. Concerns over a disruption in Russian oil supply dissipated as President Trump said on Saturday that he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to “in two or three weeks”. The market saw short-lived buying interest that pushed the market higher after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Russia’s war in Ukraine and had to stop, reviving concerns about supply flows. However, in a yo-yo manner, the market erased those gains and continued on a downward trend posting a low of $62.18 by mid-morning before it retraced its losses and rallied higher in afternoon trading as a meeting between the U.S. and Ukraine as well as European allies began. The oil market posted a high of $63.79 in afternoon trading. The September WTI contract settled up 62 cents at $63.42 and the October Brent contract settled up 75 points at $66.60. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.53 cents at $2.2403 and the RB market settling up 2.62 cents at $2.0987. U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States would help Europe in providing security for Ukraine as part of any deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, as he and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy began a White House meeting to discuss a path to peace. However, he also suggested to reporters that he no longer believed reaching a ceasefire was a necessary prerequisite for striking a peace agreement, backing a position staked out by Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposed by Ukraine’s President and most European leaders. Following their one-on-one discussion, President Trump and Ukraine’s President made a joint appearance with the leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the European Union and NATO, who traveled to Washington to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy described the one-on-one discussion with President Trump as “very good” and said they had spoken about the importance of U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. President Trump said he and Ukraine’s President had covered “a lot of territory” during their discussion. He also again proposed a three-way summit with Russia’s President, Ukraine’s President and himself aimed at reaching a peace deal, which Zelenskiy said he would support. President Trump said in the Oval Office that he liked the concept of a ceasefire, but they could work on a peace deal while the fighting continued. During the later appearance, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pushed back on that suggestion.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 226,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 22nd, unchanged from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to remain at 226,000 bpd in the week ending August 29th.

Oil prices edge lower as Trump, Zelenskyy signal talks with Putin Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after comments by US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fueled expectations that the war in Ukraine could move toward a resolution and sanctions on Russian crude could be eased. International benchmark Brent crude fell 0.77% to $65.63 a barrel at 10.10 a.m. local time (0710 GMT), down from $66.14 at Monday's close. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased 0.79% to $62.11 per barrel, compared to $62.61 in the previous session. Prices retreated after Trump said preparations had begun for a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy, which he would also attend. Zelenskyy reiterated he is ready for bilateral talks with Putin ahead of a broader format involving the US and European leaders. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said following the meeting in Washington, which included European leaders, that Zelenskyy and Putin were expected to meet within two weeks. The announcements eased market concerns over supply flows and weighed on prices. Analysts said that while a ceasefire or peace deal is not imminent, the progress in negotiations has reduced geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, investors also turned their focus to US trade measures against India, after the Trump administration announced on Aug. 6 a 25% penalty tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil. The levy, which takes effect on Aug. 27, will raise total tariffs on many Indian imports to as much as 50% and has stalled trade talks between Washington and New Delhi.Peter Navarro, a counsellor for trade and manufacturing at the White House, on Monday called India's "dependence" on Russian crude "opportunistic and deeply corrosive of the world's efforts to isolate Putin's war economy." New Delhi has pushed back on US tariffs, calling the Trump administration's moves "unfair and unjust." According to Navarro, India's purchases of Russia's crude oil had climbed to over 30% of its total imports, from a mere 1%, since the Ukraine war began in February 2022. He also accused India of "now cozying up to both Russia and China." "India's oil lobby is funding Putin's war machine, that has to stop," he added. According to analysts, Indian refiners are likely to continue buying Russian crude as long as it remains economically viable. They added that late-August talks between the US and India, if they go ahead, could prove decisive for market sentiment. Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, set for Aug. 21-23, where Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will be parsed for clues on the path of rate cuts.

Oil Prices Retreat as Ukraine Peace Hopes Trim Geopolitical Premium -Oil prices dropped Tuesday as hopes grew for progress in ending the war in Ukraine. Brent crude fell 1.1% to $65.84 a barrel, while WTI slipped 1.2% to $61.92. The declines came after a series of meetings between President Trump and other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Although last week’s Trump-Putin talks didn’t deliver a cease-fire, fears of immediate U.S. retaliation — such as secondary tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil — did not materialize, easing market anxiety. Further discussions in Washington with Zelensky and European leaders have added to optimism that negotiations are moving forward, analysts say. That has pressured crude, with traders dialing back risk premiums built into prices during months of escalating geopolitical tension. Still, skepticism lingers. While rhetoric has softened, concrete steps toward peace remain elusive, meaning energy markets may stay volatile in the weeks ahead. For now, the momentum points lower, with supply outlooks steady and demand concerns tied to trade frictions still unresolved.

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Mask Unexpected Oil Price Reactions - Brent oil prices have shifted very little over the last two weeks, staying in the range of $65 to $66 per barrel. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks loom large, with bearish sentiment winning out in anticipation of Russian barrels making a return to global markets. “The probability of the US placing stronger sanctions on Russia is waning, with the market expecting Russian oil trade to make a comeback as a result of the peace talks — yet this sentiment masks emerging signals toward upside," said Rystad Energy’s Senior Vice President, Chief Oil Analyst, Mukesh Sahdev. "Rystad Energy analysis of storage fundamentals, particularly as China’s stockpiling continues with 10% higher imports than needed, indicates that oil prices are unlikely to tank to level of $60 /bbl and stay there for long." "There is also a lack of clarity around the OPEC+ unwind on which barrels will be exported vs. fed into their own refining system. We are in an opaque vs. non-opaque fundamentals era, with OPEC vs. non-OPEC production becoming an outdated method of analyzing global oil markets. The prompt time spreads between Brent and WTI continue to signal a tighter market. Overall, our view is that backwardation will continue to roll and it’s not time to stay short for long. The path to peace is likely to be non-linear.” While it is difficult to predict what happens next in the complex peace process involving Ukraine and Russia, the signals are there that oil prices are not tanking to very low levels and Russian energy will flow easily. Despite a significant drop in bullish Nymex WTI crude net-long positions, there are signals for accumulation among the commercials and some exhaustion in downward momentum. The unsolved fundamentals are likely to be resolved without crashing oil prices. The trading world is likely to witness many unexpected trade flow shifts ahead like news of the export of diesel from India to China.

Oil prices fall on talks to end Russian invasion of Ukraine (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders bet that talks over a possible agreement to legitimize or end Russia's invasion of Ukraine could ease sanctions on Russian crude oil, boosting global supply. Brent crude futures settled at $65.79 a barrel, down 81 cents, or 1.22%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery, set to expire on Wednesday, finished at $62.35 a barrel, down $1.07, or 1.69%. "Even with this peace dividend, we have a record short position," "Because of the size of the short position, people are betting on a cease-fire and if we don't get one there could be a bounce." Following a White House meeting on Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump said arrangements were being made for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy, which could lead to a trilateral summit involving all three leaders. Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank, said Trump's softened stance on secondary sanctions targeting importers of Russian oil had reduced the risk of global supply disruptions, easing geopolitical tensions slightly. Chinese refineries have purchased 15 cargoes of Russian oil for October and November delivery as Indian demand for Moscow's exports has fallen away, two analysts and one trader said on Tuesday. Zelenskiy described his talks with Trump as "very good" and noted discussions about potential U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump confirmed the U.S. would provide such guarantees, though the extent of support remains unclear. Trump has pressed for a quick end to Europe's deadliest war in 80 years, but Kyiv and its allies worry he could seek to force an agreement on Russia's terms. "An outcome which would see a ratcheting down of tensions and remove threats of secondary tariffs or sanctions would see oil drift lower toward our $58 per barrel Q4-25/Q1-26 average target," Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a note.

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises --Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise. Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump."The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions. API

• Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)
• Cushing
• Gasoline +1mm
• Distillates +500k

DOE

• Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)
• Cushing +419k
• Gasoline -2.72mm
• Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Oil Market Trades Higher on Crude Draw as Talks to End the War in Ukraine Continue - Ahead of the September WTI contract’s expiration at the close, the oil market on Wednesday traded higher in light of a larger than expected draw in crude inventories. It continued to trade within Monday’s trading range as the market continued to await the next steps in talks to end the war in Ukraine. The market posted a low of $62.39 in overnight trading and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks report. The market later posted a high of $63.55 after the EIA reported a larger than expected draw in crude stocks of 6 million barrels in the week ending August 15 th. The crude market later traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The September WTI contract went off the board up 86 cents at $63.21. The October WTI contract settled up 94 cents at $62.71, while the October Brent contract settled up $1.05 at $66.84. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.85 cents at $2.2796 and the RB market settling up 3.93 cents at $2.1283. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that Russia is ready to discuss the political aspects of a settlement with Ukraine. He said Russia is ready to conduct talks in any format and to raise the level of delegations in negotiations. However, he repeated Moscow’s insistence that any meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian leaders should be the culmination of such negotiations, and would need to be carefully prepared. He also said that attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine without the participation of Moscow was a “road to nowhere”. Roman Babushkin, an offical at the Russian embassy in India, said Russia will continue supplying oil to India and the country’s President Vladimir Putin will meet India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi by the end of year. He said Russia has a “very, very special mechanism” to continue oil supplies to India and added that India’s crude oil imports from Russia will remain at the same level. The U.S. is set to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports on August 28th, citing their imports of Russian oil. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 303,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 22nd, cutting available refining capacity by 77,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to remain at 226,000 bpd in the week ending August 29th. IIR said BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana, was in the process of restarting after flooding disrupted its operations earlier this week. It added that the units would take several days to ramp up. The facility aims to be back running at full rates by early next week. The refinery reported flaring due to flooding caused by a severe thunderstorm. TotalEnergies began a planned 60-day overhaul on the small crude distillation unit, along with a reformer and hydrotreaters at its 238,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery. Citgo reported that operating conditions at its 165,000 bpd Corpus Christi East plant in Texas have made flaring necessary. The U.S. EPA could rule this week on dozens of pending petitions from small oil refineries seeking exemptions from ethanol- and biodiesel-blending obligations.

Oil prices climb 2% on drop in US crude inventories as investors focus on Ukraine peace push (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% on Wednesday on a bigger-than-expected weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories as investors awaited the next steps in talks to end the Ukraine war, with sanctions on Russian crude remaining in place for now. Brent crude futures were up $1.05, or 1.6%, to settle at $66.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 6.0 million barrels of crude from inventories during the week ended August 15. , That was bigger than the draw of 1.8 million barrels forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll and the decline of 2.4 million barrels that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group cited in its figures on Tuesday. "We had a decent-sized crude drawdown. We saw a rebound in exports ... That and the strong refinery demand really makes this a bullish report," On Tuesday, crude prices fell more than 1% - with WTI closing at its lowest level since May 30 - on optimism that an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war seemed closer. "Much of the choppy price action has been driven by daily updates to the Ukraine/Russian negotiations that have gone back and forth from bearish to bullish as far as the impact on future oil balances is concerned," U.S. President Donald Trump conceded that Russian President Vladimir Putin might not want to make a deal. Russia was the second-biggest producer of crude in 2024 behind the U.S., so any agreement that could ease sanctions on Moscow should boost the amount of Russian oil available for export to global markets. On Tuesday, Trump said he had ruled out putting U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine, but said the U.S. might provide air support as part of a deal to end Russia's war in the country. On Wednesday, Russia said attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine without Moscow's participation were a "road to nowhere", sounding a warning to the West as it scrambles to work out guarantees for Kyiv's future protection. Russia said it expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the U.S., Russian embassy officials in New Delhi said on Wednesday, adding that Moscow hopes trilateral talks will soon take place with India and China. Trump has announced an additional tariff of 25% on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from August 27, as a punishment for buying Russian oil. India's state-run refiners Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have bought Russian oil for September and October delivery, resuming purchases after discounts widened, two company officials aware of the matter said on Wednesday. Russian forces have advanced in the east of Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, taking the village of Novoheorhiivka close to the Donetsk region, Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday. "The likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict with Russia now seems unlikely,"

Oil prices rise; US inventory draw signals firm demand - Oil prices traded slightly higher during Asian deals on Thursday, supported by evidence of robust United States demand after government data showed steep withdrawals from crude and fuel stockpiles.By 2:55 pm AEST (4:55 am GMT) Brent crude futures rose 27 cents or 0.4% to US$67.11 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 86 cents or 1.4% to $63.21.Among data releases, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 6 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel draw.Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down 2.7 million barrels compared with forecasts for an 800,000-barrel draw, pointing to strong demand during the peak summer driving season.“Crude oil prices rebounded as signs of strong demand in the U.S. boosted sentiment,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note Thursday. Still, he added, “While the data was mildly bullish, it wasn’t enough to change the broader mood in the market. Bearish sentiment remains evident as traders continue to monitor negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. and military officials from NATO discussed security measures for Ukraine to help forge a peace agreement.”Geopolitical risks remain in focus. Russia said Wednesday that attempts to resolve security issues around Ukraine without its involvement were a “road to nowhere”, as U.S. and European officials weighed post-conflict security guarantees for Kyiv. With peace talks stalled, Western sanctions on Russian oil supplies remain in force, while further U.S. penalties on buyers of Russian crude loom.Despite the sanctions backdrop, Russian officials signaled they would maintain shipments to willing customers. Diplomats in New Delhi said Russia expects to continue oil supplies to India even as Washington applies pressure.U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting 27 August in response to India’s Russian oil purchases. Meanwhile, the European Union has sanctioned Nayara Energy, an Indian private refiner backed by Rosneft.

Oil Gains as Tariff Fears Loom - Oil advanced in a choppy session after a Trump administration trade official said he expected additional tariffs on India as a result of the country’s Russian crude purchases. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery climbed more than 1% to settle above $63 a barrel after trade adviser Peter Navarro said he expected US tariffs on India to double on Aug. 27 as a penalty for Russian oil purchases. Brent gained to settle near $68. For the past 10 sessions, US oil futures have been locked in a tight range between about $62 and $65 a barrel. Investors are monitoring progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump. The US has worked to set up a meeting between the warring sides, though the Kremlin so far has proved noncommittal. Any peace deal may lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions. Investors also continued to parse a mixed US crude stockpile report from Wednesday that included the biggest overall decline since mid-June but a seventh straight weekly buildup at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures has seen a recent surge in supplies from the Permian Basin. Oil has dropped more than 10% this year on concerns that US tariffs will hurt economic growth just as OPEC+ nations are returning idled production, raising expectations for a glut once peak summer demand ends. US gasoline stockpiles also declined for a fifth straight week, offering a reminder that, while many traders expect a surplus later this year, global inventories are still abnormally low. Jet fuel demand remains strong. “The market continues to weigh a mix of bullish and bearish drivers that, which together with thin summer liquidity, are keeping prices boxed in,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. WTI for October delivery rose 1.3% to settle at $63.52 a barrel. Brent for October settlement advanced 1.2% to settle at $67.67 a barrel.

Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand (Reuters) - Oil prices rose by nearly a dollar a barrel on Thursday as Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for a stalled peace process, and as earlier U.S. data showed signs of strong demand in the top oil consuming nation. Brent crude futures rose 83 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $67.67 a barrel, a two-week high. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 81 cents, or 1.3%, to close at $63.52 a barrel. Both contracts climbed more than 1% in the prior session. The path to peace in Ukraine remained uncertain, turning oil traders cautious after a selloff over the past two weeks on hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump would soon negotiate a diplomatic end to Russia's war with its neighbor. Both Moscow and Kyiv have since blamed each other for stalling the peace process. Russia on Thursday launched a major air attack near Ukraine's border with the European Union, while Ukraine claimed to have hit a Russian oil refinery. "Some geopolitical risk premium is slowly being pumped back into the market," oil trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates told clients on Thursday. The uncertainty in the peace talks means that the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russia has resurfaced, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Oil prices were also supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the last week, indicating strong demand. U.S. crude stockpiles fell 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday, while analysts had expected a draw of 1.8 million barrels. "These tight domestic stockpiles stand in contrast to the oversupply outlook projected by both the IEA and EIA for 2026, challenging traders' broader market expectations," Investors were also looking to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming for signals on a possible Fed interest rate cut next month. The annual gathering of central bankers begins on Thursday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Friday.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Russia-Ukraine Escalation And U.S. Supply Drop -Global oil prices advanced on Friday as renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine rattled markets, while U.S. inventory data revealed a sharper-than-expected draw in crude stockpiles. Brent crude edged up to $67.22 per barrel, a slight increase from the previous day’s $67.13, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $63.51 per barrel. Ukraine’s military reported one of the largest airstrikes of the year, which resulted in casualties and heightened tensions. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of refusing to engage in meaningful peace negotiations and called for stronger international sanctions. Adding to bullish sentiment, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude inventories declined by six million barrels last week, significantly above expectations of an 800,000-barrel reduction. Analysts believe this points to firm demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation. Meanwhile, markets await insights from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium, as potential rate cuts could stimulate economic growth and further lift oil demand. Tensions also flared after a Ukrainian strike targeted a Russian oil pipeline supplying Hungary. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto condemned the attack, calling it “an assault on Hungary’s energy security.” He criticized Kyiv’s actions, reiterating Hungary’s refusal to be drawn into the conflict and its opposition to the EU’s “war budget” allocations. With no resolution in sight, oil traders remain cautious, balancing geopolitical risks with economic indicators that continue to drive market volatility.

Oil prices set for weekly gain as Ukraine peace process stalls - Oil prices edged up on Friday as hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine faded, putting prices on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks. Brent crude futures were up 18 cents at $67.85 a barrel by 10:31 a.m. EDT (1431 GMT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 25 cents, or 0.39%, to $63.77. Both contracts gained more than 1% in the previous session. Brent has risen 3.04% so far this week while WTI is up 1.5%. “Everyone is waiting for President Trump’s next step,” said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Over the coming days, it seems nothing will happen,” he added. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he will see if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will work together in ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. The three-and-a-half-year war continued unabated this week as Russia launched an air attack on Thursday near Ukraine’s borderwith the European Union, and Ukraine said it hit a Russian oil refinery and the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia’s Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline. Hungary said deliveries through the pipeline had been halted. Trump is seeking to arrange a summit between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelenskiy as part of efforts to broker a peace deal for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there is no agenda for a potential summit between Putin and Zelenskiy, accusing Zelenskiy of saying “no to everything”. The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russia, ING analysts said in a client note on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. and European planners have presented military options to their national security advisers after the first in-person meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders sinceRussia invaded Ukraine. Estonia is ready to participate in a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine with a force of up to one battalion, the Baltic country’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal said at a press conference with his Finnish counterpart in Tallinn on Friday. Putin demanded that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce NATO ambitions and keep Western troops out of the country, sources told Reuters. Trump pledged to protect Ukraine under any war-ending deal and Zelenskiy dismissed the idea of withdrawing from internationally recognised Ukrainian land. Larger than expected fall in US oil stocks Oil prices were also supported by a larger than expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the past week, indicating strong demand. Stocks fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.8 million barrels. Weak economic data from Germany on Friday partially offset the stocks draw, showing that Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter, raising concerns over oil demand. Investors were also looking to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming for signals of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday pointed to a possible rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting but stopped short of committing to cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand, potentially boosting prices.

Oil prices rise, make weekly gains as Ukraine peace process stalls (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Friday amid uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with prices gaining on the week for the first time in three weeks. Brent crude futures settled up 6 cents or 0.09% to $67.73. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 14 cents or 0.22% to $63.66. Both contracts gained more than 1% in the previous session. Brent gained 2.9% this week while WTI rose 1.4%. "Everyone is waiting for President Trump's next step," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Over the coming days, it seems nothing will happen," he added. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he will see if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will work together in ending Russia's war in Ukraine. "There is still uncertainty around the potential ceasefire, the negotiations are not going as quick as the market would have hoped," The 3-1/2-year war continued unabated this week as Russia launched an air attack on Thursday near Ukraine's border with the European Union, and Ukraine said it hit a Russian oil refinery and the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia's Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline. Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia could be suspended for at least five days. Trump is seeking to arrange a summit between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelenskiy as part of efforts to broker a peace deal for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there is no agenda for a potential summit between Putin and Zelenskiy, accusing Zelenskiy of saying "no to everything".The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russia, ING analysts said in a client note on Friday.Meanwhile, U.S. and European planners have presented military options to their national security advisers after the first in-person meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine.Estonia is ready to participate in a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine with a force of up to one battalion, the Baltic country's Prime Minister Kristen Michal said at a press conference with his Finnish counterpart in Tallinn on Friday. Putin demanded that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce NATO ambitions and keep Western troops out of the country, sources told Reuters. Trump pledged to protect Ukraine under any war-ending deal and Zelenskiy dismissed the idea of withdrawing from internationally recognised Ukrainian land. Oil prices were also supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the past week, indicating strong demand. Stocks fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 538 in the week to August 22, the lowest since mid-July. Weak economic data from Germany on Friday partially offset the stocks draw, showing that Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3%, opens new tab in the second quarter, raising concerns over oil demand. Investors were also looking to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming for signals of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday pointed to a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month but stopped short of committing to it, in remarks acknowledging both the growing risks to the job market and the ongoing threat of higher inflation. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand, potentially boosting prices.

Russian fuel prices surge after Ukraine hits refineries (AFP) – Russian fuel prices are at near-record highs, stock exchange data showed Thursday, after a slew of Ukrainian attacks on refineries caused breakdowns during the travel season. Ukraine routinely targets Russian refineries and oil depots to hamper Moscow's ability to fund its offensive. Recent hits have coincided with the summer holiday season and have contributed to higher rates of driving over train and air travel. In a bid to tame prices, Russia, one of the world's biggest oil producers, introduced a total ban on fuel exports last month, but it appeared to have little effect. AI-92 and AI-95, the two most popular fuel blends in Russia, were trading at around 72,663 and 81,342 thousand rubles per tonne ($900 and $1,000), close to their all-time highs, according to trading data from the Saint Petersburg commodities exchange. Russian broker BKS cited "the high season, repairs and new accidents at the refineries" as reasons for the price surge, noting higher demand for fuel because people tend to drive more during the summer months. Additionally, Ukrainian attacks have also disrupted air and railway travel, further contributing to the surge, the brokerage said. "Recent disruptions at the Afipsky, Ryazan and Saratov oil refineries could have reduced the petrol supply on the market," it added, saying this could have probably exacerbated the situation. Ukraine claimed to have hit the three refineries this month, but there was no official comment from Russia on any stoppages there. The Russian energy ministry said the price rise was due to "high seasonal demand and agricultural works", and supported extending the ban to September as well, without mentioning Ukrainian strikes or any repair work on refineries. The fuel shortage is the most acute in Russia's south and far east, as well as in the part s of Ukraine held by Russian troops, local authorities said.

Major Russian attack on western Ukraine hits an American factory during U.S.-led push for peace | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Russia launched a rare drone and missile attack on western Ukraine overnight, officials said Thursday, striking targets including an American-owned electronics plant and injecting further uncertainty into the U.S.-led efforts to end the three-year-old war. The aerial assault on a part of Ukraine that has largely avoided such focused attacks was one of Russia's biggest this year and came amid Moscow's objections to key aspects of proposals that could end the fighting following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of its neighbor. President Donald Trump discussed the war with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week before hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders at the White House on Monday. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the strikes targeted “enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex," including drone factories, storage depots, missile launch sites and areas where Ukrainian troops were gathered. Russia has repeatedly denied targeting civilian areas of Ukraine. But in a post on X, Mr. Zelenskyy wrote that “the Russians practically burned down an American company producing electronics — home appliances, nothing military.” “The Russians knew exactly where they lobbed the missiles. We believe this was a deliberate attack against American property and investments in Ukraine,” Mr. Zelenskyy wrote, adding: “Telling attack, right as the world awaits a clear answer from Russia on negotiations to end the war.” Trump last month questioned Mr. Putin’s commitment to ending the war, saying the Russian leader “talks nice and then he bombs everybody.” In a social media post Thursday, Trump criticized his predecessor, Joe Biden, for not providing Ukraine with more weaponry it needs to “fight back.” “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country,” Trump said. “It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offensive. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia.” The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Trump is considering changes to the types of weapons the U.S. will provide to Kyiv.

Ukrainian attack suspends Russian oil flows to Hungary, Slovakia (Reuters) - Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia could be suspended for at least five days after a Ukrainian strike on a facility in Russia, Hungarian and Slovakian officials said on Friday, in a widening of the fallout of Russia's war in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, hitting Ukrainian domestic heating supplies, Russia's Druzhba pipeline and other facilities, over the past few weeks as U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed for a deal to end the conflict. . The European Union reduced energy supplies from Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is seeking to phase out Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. EU members Slovakia and Hungary have maintained relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposed sanctions against Russia that Ukraine says are vital to make Moscow drop unacceptable war demands. They also oppose the phase-out of Russian energy supplies via the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban published on Friday a letter he wrote to Trump in which he says that Ukraine attacked Druzhba just days before the U.S. president met Putin in Alaska on August 15. Orban called the attack a "very unfortunate move". A photocopy of the letter posted by Orban on Facebook showed what appeared to be a handwritten note on it from Trump, saying: "Viktor - I do not like hearing this - I am very angry about it." The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Hungarian and Slovak foreign ministers also wrote to the European Commission on Friday saying that the latest Ukrainian attack could leave them without Russian oil imports for at least five days, urging it to guarantee the security of supplies. "The physical and geographical reality is that without this pipeline, the safe supply of our countries is simply not possible," Hungary's Peter Szijjarto and Slovakia's Juraj Blanar said in their letter. The EU says it has invested in energy infrastructure in Croatia that could provide the two countries with alternative supplies. The Ukrainian strike on Thursday night marked the second time this week that Russian oil supplies have been cut to Hungary and Slovakia, after a halt on Monday and Tuesday. Ukraine's military said late on Thursday it had again struck the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia's Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline. A Russian industry source also said the supplies could be halted for a few days. The Russian energy ministry did not reply to a request for comment.

Iran Warns Israel Could Resume Its War at Any Time - Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned on Monday that Israel could resume its war on Iran at any time and that Tehran must be prepared for the possibility.“We must be prepared at every moment for confrontation; right now, we are not even in a ceasefire (agreement); we are in a cessation of hostilities,” Eref said.The Iranian official said that Tehran prefers diplomacy but is unsure what the other side will do and that if the war does restart, Iran will be prepared to end it.“Of course, our strategy is to resolve issues through negotiations, but we are concerned whether the other side believes in negotiations or not,” he said,according to Iran’s MEHR news agency. “We do not seek war, but our strategy is that if they start a war, its end will be ours.” Aref’s comments come as Israeli officials have made clear that they do seek another war with Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video last week where he spoke in English and urged the “Iranian people” to rise up against the government, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has repeatedly threatened Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the end of the 12-day US-Israeli war on Iran, there have been no negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran has been seeking assurances that it won’t be attacked again during the next round of talks, and it also maintains that the US must not demand zero uranium enrichment. For his part, President Trump has threatened to bomb Iran again if it restarts uranium enrichment.

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris -Syria has issued confirmation of a meeting between its foreign minister and a close confidante of Benjamin Netanyahu in Paris, marking the first official announcement of direct talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Earlier, reports had said Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani would meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris. "Shaibani met today in the French capital, Paris, with an Israeli delegation to discuss several issues related to ‘enhancing stability’ in the region and southern Syria. Discussions focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syria's internal affairs, reaching understandings that support stability in the region, monitoring the ceasefire in As-Suwayda Governorate, and reactivating the 1974 agreement," state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday. "These discussions are being held with US mediation as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity," it added. This was not the first meeting between Dermer and Shaibani. US envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said on July 24 that he met in Paris with Syrian and Israeli officials for “dialogue and de-escalation.” Shaibani and Dermer were both visiting the French capital at the time. Barrack’s announcement came after the end of violent clashes between pro-government forces and local Syrian Druze factions in the southern city of Suwayda and its countryside, resulting in numerous civilian massacres.Israel intervened with a series of violent airstrikes targeting Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, under the pretext of “protecting” the Druze minority. According to reports, Syrian-Israeli negotiations, which had been ongoing since the start of the year, resumed quickly after the attacks, following a brief pause. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, Israeli forces have established a widespread military occupation across southern Syria. Occupation forces continue to expand their presence in the country’s south, launching regular raids, incursions, and airstrikes. Israel says it wishes to demilitarize the entire south, protect the Druze minority from persecution, and prevent ‘hostile forces’ from establishing a presence.

Amnesty Says Israel Is Carrying Out a 'Deliberate Campaign of Starvation' in Gaza - The UK-based human rights group Amnesty International said on Mondaythat Israel is carrying out a “deliberate campaign of starvation” in the Gaza Strip, citing testimonies from Palestinians living under the siege, and called for an immediate ceasefire and end to the blockade.“To even begin reversing the devastating consequences of Israel’s inhumane policies and actions, which have made mass starvation a grim reality in Gaza, there must be an immediate, unconditional lifting of the blockade and a sustained ceasefire,” said Erika Guevara Rosas, Senior Director for Research, Advocacy, Policy and Campaigns at Amnesty International.“The impact of Israel’s blockade and its ongoing genocide on civilians, particularly on children, people with disabilities, those with chronic illnesses, older people and pregnant and breastfeeding women, is catastrophic and cannot be undone by simply increasing the number of aid trucks or restoring performative, ineffective and dangerous airdrops of aid,” Rosas added.The report put emphasis on the plight of pregnant women and mothers of infants who are struggling to produce breast milk and facing shortages of baby formula and are struggling to feed their children. Save the Childrenscreened 747 pregnant and breastfeeding women in July and found that over 40% were malnourished.“I fear miscarriage, but I also think about my baby: I panic just thinking about the potential impact of my own hunger on the baby’s health, its weight, whether it will have [birth defects], and even if the baby is born healthy, what life awaits it, amidst displacement, bombs, tents,” Hadeel, a fourth-month pregnant mother of two told Amnesty. Palestinians also spoke of how people were fighting for aid rather than cooperating and helping each other like they used to. Palestinians have been coming under Israeli attack while trying to reach aid, with nearly 2,000 aid seekers being killed since the end of May. “I saw with my own eyes people carrying bags of flour stained with the blood of those who had just been shot; even people I knew were almost unrecognizable. The experience of hunger and war has changed Gaza completely; it has changed our values,”

Israel Calls Up 60,000 Reservists Ahead Of Gaza City Takeover -Israeli media is reporting that around 60,000 Israeli reservists are set to receive call-up orders on Wednesday as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) gear up for a major assault on Gaza City.A report in Times of Israel notes that reservists will have up to two weeks before going to their duty stations, but not all will be directly involved in the Gaza City offensive, as some are needed replace Israeli forces currently stationed in other parts of Gaza. The controversial Netanyahu-ordered expanded offensive which aims to achieve total control of Gaza City is expected to displace over a million Palestinian civilians.The IDF is prepared to use artillery to forcibly remove them, and a ramped-up air campaign has already been underway. Arab media sources, including Al Jazeera, have said that areas with a lot of tent shelters for refugees have at times been directly struck.Israel's military has issued evacuation orders, and is framing this as simply a mass transfer, while the Palestinian side along with international human rights monitors have decried an ethnic cleansing and land grab in progress.Reports in Israeli media have further described that after capturing the city, the IDF plans to spend over a year systematically demolishing it, which is precisely what previously happened in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia.The ostensible justification is for removal of "Hamas infrastructure" - but critics have said it is ultimately to pave the way for Jewish settlement of the Gaza Strip.