oil prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks on hopes for US trade deals with China and Europe, an OPEC commitment to cut production, and new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports…after ending 0.8% lower at $61.50 a barrel was week in rebounding from four year lows after Trump paused the implementation of most of his announced tariffs for 90 days, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery rose more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday after the United States announced exclusions on some tariffs, and Chinese data showed a sharp rebound in crude imports for March, then traded in a narrow range in New York as traders weighed the news of exemptions for some electronic goods from U.S. tariffs and the increase in China’s crude imports against concerns that the trade war would weaken global economic growth, and settled 3 cents higher at $61.53 a barrel as progress on talks with Iran undercut the impact of the tariff reprieve…oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday, supported by new tariff exemptions announced by Trump and a rebound in Chinese crude oil imports, but again traded in a narrow range in New York as traders weighed the latest oil demand forecast against the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff policies, then pulled back to settle 20 cents lower at $61.33 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency followed OPEC in slashing its oil demand forecast…oil prices dipped during Wednesday's Asian session, as traders weighed the escalating United States-China tariff dispute and its potential drag on global economic growth and energy demand, then reversed course and rallied higher on the possibility of trade talks between China and the U.S., then further extended the prior gains after the EIA reported that oil supplies at the all important Cushing Hub fell to their lowest for this time of year since 2008, and then settled $1.14 or nearly 2% higher at a two week high of $62.47 a barrel on concerns about global oil supplies after Washington issued new sanctions targeting Chinese importers of Iranian oil…oil prices extended strong gains in Asian trading on Thursday, driven by supply disruption concerns after the U.S. imposed new sanctions, then continued their upward trend on global markets, supported by expectations of tighter supplies after some OPEC members pledged deeper production cuts to offset previous overproduction beyond their agreed quotas, and settled the New York session $2.21, or 3.2% higher at a two week high of $64.68 a barrel, supported by hopes for a trade deal between the United States and the European Union and by new U.S. sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports, which continued to elevate supply concerns, and thus finished 5.2% higher for the week…(NB: there was no official trading in the US on “Good Friday”)…
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the fifth time in six weeks on forecasts that mild weather and anemic demand would persist through early May…after falling 8.1% to $3.527 per mmBTU last week on an unseasonably large addition to inventories and on ongoing concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on demand, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery opened up 3.1 cents on Monday and briefly ticked higher, but then pulled back throughout the morning, as weak fundamentals and steady production provided bearish pressure during the session, and settled 20.2 cents or nearly 6% lower at $3.325 per mmBTU on record output over the weekend, and on forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected…May natural gas opened 6.5 cent lower on Tuesday, and traded near the $3.30 level throughout the session as tariff wars continued to provide uncertainty, but turned positive near the close to settle four-tenths of a cent higher at $3.329 per mmBTU on near-record output, a decline in daily flows to LNG export plants, and on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected…the front-month natural gas contract opened 4.5 cents lower on Wednesday and trended lower, as recession fears and warming forecasts continued to cast a bearish shadow on the market, and settled 8.2 cents lower at a 10-week low of $3.247 per mmBTU on near-record output and a decline in daily flows to liquefied natural gas export plants…natural gas prices moved higher early Thursday, after the EIA reported an injection of natural gas into storage that was lower than historical norms and market expectations, but returned to drifting in afternoon trading as the market digested an unexpectedly modest storage build, while bullish sentiment quickly eroded amid longer-range fundamental pressures, and settled two-tenths of a cent lower at at a 10-week low of $3.245 per mmBTU on forecasts for the weather to remain mild and for demand to remain low through early May, and thus finished 9.2% lower for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 11th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 16 billion cubic feet to 1,846 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 480 billion cubic feet, or 20.6% below the 2,326 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on April 11th of last year, and 74 billion cubic feet, or 3.9% less than the five-year average of 1,920 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 11th of April over the most recent five years….the 16 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 22 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts ahead of the report, and was considerably less than the 46 billion cubic foot that was added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in April of 2024, and also much less than the average 50 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early April week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 11th indicated that after a big increase in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for and a big decrease in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, we again had surplus oil left to add to our stored crude supplies for the tenth time in twelve weeks, and for the 18th time in forty-one weeks, despite a big increase in our oil exports...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 189,000 barrels per day to average 6,001,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 277,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,856,000 barrels per day to average 5,100,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 901,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 11th, an average of 2,046,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 596,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 13,462,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 14,959,000 barrels per day during the April 11th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,564,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 11th, an average of 64,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 116,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending April 11th averaged a rounded 722,000 barrels per day less than what what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +722,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…Moreover, since 968,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,690,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are garbage….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 116,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 74,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 43,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-seventh SPR increase in the past seventy-seven weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,213,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 5.2% less than the 6,554,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 4,000 barrels per day higher at 13,462,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,020,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 442,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 86.3% of their capacity while processing those 15,564,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 11th, down from their 86.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, and down from the 91.7% utilization rate of twelve weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the onset of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 15,627,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 2.2% less than the 15,913,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending April 12th of 2024, and were 3.2% less than the 16,078,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 12th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.7%, also somewhat low for this time of year…
Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was significantly higher, increasing by 466,000 barrels per day to 9,412,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 11th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 338,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was less than 0.1% less than the 9,417,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending April 12th of last year, and was 5.1% less than the gasoline production of 9,917,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending April 12th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 4,688,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had 16,078,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that modest production increase, our distillates output was 1.9% more than the 4,601,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 12th of 2024, but was 2.8% less than the 4,823,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending April 12th, 2019…
Even with this week’s big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the ninth time in ten weeks, decreasing by 1,958,000 barrels to 234,019,000 barrels during the week ending April 11th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,600,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell again this week despite the production increase because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 37,000 barrels per day to 8,462,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 60,000 barrels per day to 854,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 247,000 barrels per day to 531,000 barrels per day.…Even after thirty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.9% higher than last April 12th’s gasoline inventories of 227,377,000 barrels, and were only about 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With the modest increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 19th time in twenty-nine weeks, decreasing by 515,000 barrels to a sixteen month low of 109,231,000 barrels during the week ending April 11th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,544,000 barrels barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 148,000 to 3,858,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 31,000 barrels per day to 1,197,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 33,000 barrels per day to 102,000 barrels per day...But after 39 inventory withdrawals over the past 65 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.4% below the 114,968,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 12th of 2024, and were about 11% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, despite the big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 25th time over the past year, increasing by 2,553,000 barrels over the week, from a 39 week high of 442,345,000 barrels on April 4th to a 40 week high of 439,792,000 barrels on April 11th , after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,553,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories slipped to about 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were almost 28% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this April 11th were 3.7% less than the 459,993,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on April 12th of 2024, and 5.0% less than the 465,968,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on April 14th 31st of 2023, but were 5.0% more than the 421,753,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on April 8th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count increased by two during the six day period ending April 17th, the first increase in five weeks, as 1 rig targeting oil and 1 rig targeting natural gas were added...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 17th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 11th) and this week’s (April 17th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 11th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 19th of April, 2024…
you might note that there was a two rig increase in Ohio's Utica shale...both of those were natural gas rigs, one in Belmont county, and the other in Columbiana...but here's the surprise: of the twelve rigs now drilling in Ohio, eight of them are shown to be drilling for oil; two each in Carroll, Guernsey, and Harrison counties, and one each in Belmont and Noble counties...meanwhile, Belmont, Columbiana, Monroe and Jefferson counties have the natural gas rigs, and there is also a Utica rig targeting natural gas in Beaver County, Pennsylvania...note that Ohio frackers use the term oil quite loosely; most of what they're getting from those wells are condenstates, sometimes even too light to refine gasoline out of...but even after the drop in oil prices, it's worth more than the methane and ethane that Ohio wells were originally known for...
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OH Supreme Court Case Allows Surface Owners to Keep Mineral Rights -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the Ohio Supreme Court issued a ruling dismissing a case that leaves in place a ruling from the Seventh District Court of Appeals. The case, Darrell Crozier et al. v. Pipe Creek Conservancy LLC et al., involves a decision on who owns the oil and gas rights underlying a property in rural Belmont County. The case revolves around the Ohio Marketable Title Act (MTA), something we’ve written about multiple times (see our MTA stories here). The issue of who owns the mineral rights is vitally important for surface owners, rights owners, and drillers. The MTA provides a way for surface owners to reclaim subsurface rights that had been severed under certain conditions. That’s what this case was about.
Court Dismisses Challenge to Mineral Rights Ownership -The Supreme Court of Ohio today dismissed a dispute over oil and gas rights underlying property in rural Belmont County, letting a lower court ruling stand.The Supreme Court ruled it had improvidently accepted Darrell Crozier et al. v. Pipe Creek Conservancy LLC et al., a case it heard in February. The Court majority issued an entry without an opinion, keeping in place the ruling of the Seventh District Court of Appeals.Justice Patrick F. Fischer wrote a concurring opinion, stating the Court correctly dismissed the case after determining the family who brought the challenge waivedtheir right to argue an error they claimed the Seventh District made. Justice Fischer wrote the family actually changed their argument on the issue the Supreme Court agreed to hear only after losing the case in the Seventh District.Justices Jennifer Brunner, Joseph T. Deters, and Daniel R. Hawkins joined the entry dismissing the case.Justices R. Patrick DeWine and Megan E. Shanahan joined Justice Fischer’s opinion. Chief Justice Sharon L. Kennedy dissented without a written opinion.
Austin Master Services Frack Waste Cleanup in OH Almost Complete -- Marcellus Drilling News --One of the significant stories of 2024 in the Ohio Utica was about Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, that handles fracking waste (trucks it for disposal). AMS ran into trouble when it ran out of money. The Martins Ferry facility, where waste is temporarily stored, went from a permitted maximum of 600 tons of stored waste to over 10,000 tons, violating its permit. The Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against the company in March 2024 to force compliance and to force the cleanup of the facility. More than a year later, we are finally near the end of the cleanup process.
Indiana Michigan Power seeks approval to acquire natural gas plant in Ohio - Indiana Michigan Power (I&M) is seeking approval from the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) to acquire the Oregon Clean Energy Center, a natural gas plant located in Oregon, Ohio. I&M’s filing explains the need to acquire the facility, which generates about 870 megawatts (MW) of power, as well as future operating plans. In its review process, the IURC will be gauging whether the proposed plant acquisition is in the public interest and is just and reasonable. This proposed acquisition is one component of I&M’s Future Ready plan, which details the resources needed to provide I&M customers with reliable and affordable energy. “I&M has established the need for additional electric generation, and we believe the Oregon Clean Energy Center is an important opportunity to further diversify our current generation portfolio and position I&M for future growth,” Steve Baker, I&M president and chief operating officer, said. “It is our responsibility to ensure that our current and future customers have reliable and affordable power.” Power demand in its service territory is expected to more than double the Indiana peak from approximately 2,800 MW in 2024 to more than 7,000 MW in the 2030 timeframe. The rapid growth in demand provides an opportunity for I&M to reshape the way it serves customers. The Oregon facility, if approved, will provide a stable source of power to meet the 24 hours per day x 7 days per week operational requirements of existing customers as well as new customers. I&M’s current generation portfolio includes solar, wind, nuclear, coal and hydroelectric units. The company’s vision for the future is to implement an “all of the above” approach. I&M, a subsidiary of American Electric Power, anticipates a decision from the IURC on the filing in early 2026
Duke Energy Files to Build 2 Gas-Fired Power Plants in Indiana - Marcellus Drilling News -Cayuga Station, owned by Duke Energy, is a three-unit coal-fired power plant built between 1970 and 1993 in Vermillion County, Indiana. The existing plant produces as much as 1,040 megawatts (MW) of electricity. Duke recently filed a request with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) for permission to build two new gas-fired plants at the Cayuga site to replace the coal-fired units. The combined output of the new gas-fired plants will be 1,510 MW. The plan is to build and commission the gas-fired plants first and then shut down the coal-fired plants.
36 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 7 – 13 -- Marcellus Drilling News --Last week was an interesting week for new permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica. For the week of Apr 7 – 13, the number of permits issued soared, up 15 from the previous week. Last week, 36 new permits were issued. The surprising thing is just how few of those new permits were issued in the Keystone State (PA). Just five new permits went to PA. CNX Resources had four of PA’s new permits, all for the same well pad in Westmoreland County. The other permit went to EQT in Fayette County - BELMONT COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | FAYETTE COUNTY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | GULFPORT ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | HILCORP ENERGY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | MARSHALL COUNTY |MONONGALIA COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
FERC approves storage expansion at Mississippi Hub -- Enstor Gas has received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for its Mississippi Hub Expansion Project, allowing a significant increase in the natural gas storage capacity at its underground facility in Simpson County, Mississippi, according to a Business Wire article. The project will add three storage caverns, each with a 10 billion cubic feet (Bcf) capacity, tripling the facility’s total capacity to 56.3 Bcf. The expansion, set to be in-service by 2028, has secured a long-term contract for its first cavern with a Kinder Morgan subsidiary, enhancing reliability for Gulf Coast and Southeast markets. The facility connects to major pipelines, including Southern Natural Gas and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line. Enstor’s CEO, Paul Bieniawski, emphasized the project’s role in meeting growing U.S. LNG export and gas-fired power generation demands, strengthening energy security.
Calcasieu Pass LNG Open for Business After Shipping 400+ Cargoes - Marcellus Drilling News -After liquefying and exporting over 400 cargoes of LNG from March 1, 2022, through this month, Venture Global says its Calcasieu Pass (CP) LNG export facility in Louisiana is now officially open for business—three years after it began shipping LNG. Venture Global claimed the CP facility was not commercially ready until now. Venture Global has been selling cargo after cargo of LNG on the open “spot” market, making two, three, or four times the money it could make by selling the cargoes to its legally contracted customers at a predetermined price. At last count, Venture Global has made over $20 billion by selling cargoes on the open spot market.
ET Asks FERC to Extend Lake Charles LNG Construction Extra 3 Years - Marcellus Drilling News - Energy Transfer’s (ET) Lake Charles LNG project is in the news again. Last week we told you that ET had landed a new partner to help pay for the project, MidOcean Energy, which will cover 30% of the cost of building the plant (see MidOcean Partners with Energy Transfer on Lake Charles LNG Exports). ET has just filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to add an extra three years to the permit to get the facility built and online.
Lake Charles LNG Seeking Another FERC Extension Needed to Reach FID --Energy Transfer LP’s (ET) Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana has again asked FERC for more time to finish building the export terminal and to place it into service. “Without such an extension, the project likely would not be able” to reach a final investment decision (FID), the company said in its filing, noting that it’s also a precondition for sanctioning the facility. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has granted previous extensions, including one in 2022 that gave the company until 2028 to finish the project. The ET affiliate is now asking for an extension until Dec. 31, 2031.
LNG Export Demand Prompts Eagle Ford Natural Gas Growth as Oil Stagnates --While tariff fallout wreaks havoc on oil prices, growing U.S. LNG export demand is casting a spotlight on the potential for rising natural gas production from the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in Texas. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) forward basis Houston Ship Channel prices showing future volatility in reference to Henry Hub markets. Expand Since late last year, commissioning LNG export projects on the Gulf Coast have helped boost feed gas demand to new heights. That added demand also has driven a rise in domestic natural gas prices as growing exports collided with winter weather. Several forecasts have indicated Haynesville Shale producers will likely be the first to add rigs to match demand. However, production areas west of Louisiana also could play a key role in the supply balance, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) researchers.
NextDecade Shores Up Rio Grande LNG Train 4 Offtake with 1.5 Mt/y TotalEnergies SPA -NextDecade Corp. has long-term binding and tentative contracts for a majority of the export capacity from Rio Grande LNG Train 4 after a new deal with TotalEnergies. The French super major disclosed Monday it has exercised an option as a part of its equity agreement with NextDecade to purchase 1.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) for 20 years from a proposed fourth train expansion at the Texas terminal. If the project reaches a final investment decision (FID), cargoes would be linked to Henry Hub and delivered on a free-on-board basis starting in 2027 under the sales and purchase agreement (SPA).
Woodside Taps Mexico Pacific CEO to Help Lead Louisiana Export Project — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market -A federal appeals court has upheld Alaska LNG’s ability to ship the super-chilled fuel to non-free trade agreement (NFTA) countries – if it is built. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Circuit) found that the Department of Energy (DOE) properly reviewed potential environmental impacts of the project exporting LNG when an NFTA license was issued. The Sierra Club and other environmental groups challenged DOE’s NFTA approval for the project, arguing it violated the Natural Gas Act and the National Environmental Policy Act.
Trump’s push for more LNG exports risks domestic price surge - When a natural gas export terminal on the Texas coast exploded on June 8, 2022, the plant closed, and the price of gas in the United States suddenly dropped. By the end of the day, it had plummeted 16 percent. The reason: supply and demand. The facility, Freeport LNG, was then one of seven sites in the United States where gas was being liquefied at cryogenic temperatures and shipped overseas. When it closed, less gas could be exported.If gas prices can crash when one plant stops exporting, what does that mean for the years ahead? Will prices rise as the country exports more and more gas overseas? Higher gas costs could dramatically affect people’s heating and electricity bills because North American exports are expected to at least double between 2024 and 2028 as new terminals open. Gas prices will also help determine whether President Donald Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda lowers expenses for American consumers or raises them at a time when new U.S. tariffs are spurring worries of a recession and putting pressure on prices across the economy. Trump suggested last week in the Oval Office that buying billions of dollars of U.S. energy exports could be a way for Europe to avoid his tariffs.Any increase in energy costs breaks Trump’s promise to voters last year that he would cut energy prices in half in his first 18 months, said Tyson Slocum of Public Citizen.“It’s deliberate sleight of hand,” said Slocum, director of the consumer advocacy group’s energy program. “Right now, every major action I’ve seen him undertake is actually going to increase price.”The White House did not respond to requests for comment about Slocum’s assertion or whether Trump has concerns that increased exports could diminish his ability to lower energy prices for Americans.
Could Tariff Wars Threaten Natural Gas Demand Growth? Kinder Morgan Executives Not Buying It -Leadership of Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) downplayed the impacts of a potential recession on natural gas demand growth, citing an array of supply- and demand-side drivers. Map showing Kinder Morgan Inc.'s Lower 48 pipeline network. Expand In a call with analysts to discuss first quarter earnings for the midstream giant, Executive Chairman Rich Kinder theorized that President Trump’s trade war could even benefit U.S. LNG exporters. He explained that “the announcement of expanded tariffs by the Trump administration inspired others to question whether this would result in less demand for U.S. LNG, thereby reducing the amount of feed gas required in this country.”
China Halts U.S. LNG Imports Amid Tariff War - China hasn’t imported liquefied natural gas from the United States since early February, as the tariff war hit energy trade and could have long-term consequences for U.S. LNG export contracts.The last LNG cargo to arrive in China from America was a tanker from Corpus Christi, which docked in the southern Chinese province of Fujian on February 6, according to shipping data cited by the Financial Times.The Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods, including energy products, and the broader trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could have long-term consequences on the ability of new U.S. LNG export projects to attract anchor offtake commitments, analysts warn.“I do not think Chinese LNG importers will ever contract any new US LNG,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas specialist at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told FT.Since the U.S.-China trade war escalated, China’s LNG buyers have been reselling the cargoes they are buying from the U.S. as Chinese tariffs on American goods are raising the costs of U.S. LNG imports.LNG import demand in China has been weaker this year amid comfortably full winter inventories. Chinese LNG imports are expected to drop this year, according to the latest estimates from BloombergNEF. China is set to see the first annual decline in LNG imports since 2022.The trade war and the new tariffs on U.S. LNG are driving major Chinese LNG buyers to stop imports from the United States and resell the cargoes they have already bought or contracted. Following the tariffs, Chinese LNG buyers with long-term supply contracts with U.S. producers have started reselling the cargoes to Europe, Bloomberg reported, citing trading sources. What’s more, Chinese traders have grown cold towards new long-term commitments for future supply from the United States, instead seeking long-term deals with gas producers in the Middle East and the Asia Pacific.
Midcontinent energy execs peg $3.80 as necessary for profitability -- A Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City survey indicates that natural gas prices in the Tenth District, which includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico, are approaching levels needed for profitable energy activity, averaging $3.80/MMBtu, with $5.10/MMBtu required for significant increases. Current Henry Hub prices are slightly below that at $3.55, with projections of $3.612 for summer and $4.356 for winter 2025/26. Crude oil requires $65/bbl for profitability and $85/bbl for substantial growth, compared to current West Texas Intermediate prices above $61/bbl. First-quarter energy activity rose modestly, marking the first increase since Q4 2022, though revenues and profits declined. Expectations remain positive, but 62% of firms anticipate higher costs due to recent Trump administration trade policy changes, with mixed demand outlooks. Uncertainty around tariffs, high demand, and inflation are pushing development costs, while foreign-sourced inputs are expected to slightly decrease over time.
US natgas prices drop 6% to 9-week low on record output, lower demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 6% to a nine-week low on Monday on record output over the weekend and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. Gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 20.2 cents, or 5.7%, to settle at $3.325 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since February 7. The price drop came despite record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for higher gas demand this week than previously expected. Gas stockpiles were currently about 4% below normal levels for this time of year, after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March. On a daily basis, output hit a record 107.4 bcfd on Saturday and Sunday, topping the prior all-time high of 107.3 bcfd on March 24. Looking forward, however, analysts said energy firms could cut back on oil drilling in coming weeks due to the roughly 14% drop in U.S. crude futures so far in April. The crude price drop was related in part to uncertainty tied to U.S. President Donald Trump's on-again off-again trade tariffs. Any reduction in oil drilling in shale basins such as the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota could boost gas prices by cutting gas output associated with that production. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 29. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 101.0 bcfd this week to 97.2 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.3 bcfd so far in April, on rising flows to Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana. Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and at an eight-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
US NatGas Prices Slide 3% to 10-Week Low on Near-Record Output, Mild Weather -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on April 16 to a 10-week low on near-record output and a decline in daily flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. In addition, analysts said forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks should allow utilities to keep pushing lots of gas into storage through early May. U.S. gas stockpiles are around 4% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 8.2 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.247/MMBtu, their lowest close since Jan. 31. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 1. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 99.7 Bcf/d this week to 96.7 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were slightly higher than LSEG's outlook on April 15. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 Bcf/d in March to 16.2 Bcf/d so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's 3.2-Bcf/d Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to hold at a one-week low of 16.1 Bcf/d on April 16, down from an average of 16.7 Bcf/d over the prior seven days, according to LSEG data. That daily LNG feedgas decline was mostly due to lower expected flows to Cheniere Energy's 3.9-Bcf/d Corpus Christi export plant in service and under construction in Texas to 1.7 Bcf/d on April 16, down from 2.2 Bcf/d on April 15 and an average of 2.3 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. The Corpus Christi plant includes three 0.8-Bcf/d operating trains and seven 0.2-Bcf/d mid-scale trains under construction. Gas was trading at a one-week high of around $12 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a 10-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
U.S. natgas prices hold at 10-week low on forecasts for mild weather through early May U.S. natural gas futures held at a 10-week low on Thursday ahead of the long Good Friday holiday weekend on forecasts for the weather to remain mild and demand low through early May. Lack of price movement came despite a federal report showing a smaller than expected weekly storage build, a small decline in daily output and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.2 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $3.245 per million British thermal units (MMBtus), their lowest close since January 31 for a second day in a row. That kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since January. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 16 Bft3 of gas into storage during the week ended April 11. That was lower than the 22-Bft3 build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 46 Bft3 during the same week last year and a 5-yr average build of 50 Bft3 for this time of year. Analysts said the storage build was smaller than usual as cool weather last week kept heating demand for the fuel higher than normal. Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.3 Bft3d in April, up from a monthly record of 106.2 Bft3d in March. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop to a one-week low of 105.5 Bft3d on Thursday as spring pipeline maintenance leaves some gas trapped in production basins, traders and analysts have said. Looking ahead, analysts said energy firms could cut back on oil drilling in the coming weeks due to the roughly 12% drop in U.S. crude futures in April. The crude price drop was related in part to uncertainty tied to U.S. President Donald Trump's on-again off-again trade tariffs, which could reduce economic growth and oil demand. Any reduction in oil drilling in shale basins such as the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota could boost gas prices by cutting gas output.
Speed of U.S. LNG Export Capacity Development Creates Natural Gas Price Upside Uncertainty -- The pace of new LNG feed gas demand hitting the market is raising the prospect of upside risk and regional price volatility as the next wave of export projects head closer to commissioning. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. Natural gas storage injection season in the United States started early this year, with net injections beginning in mid-March. East Daley Analytics’ Jack Weixel, senior director of energy analysis, told NGI that storage levels were tracking above the average. However, with flows to developing export projects growing exponentially and an uncertain path for Lower 48 production, Weixel said early injections were likely to only provide a thin buffer compared to the influx of feed gas demand hitting the market.
Could DOGE Workforce Cuts Impact Weather Data Essential to Forecast Natural Gas Supply, Demand? - The importance of weather information for the natural gas market cannot be overstated, according to market weather experts. Market participants rely on the data to help project demand and support supply-side decisions. But, aggressive staffing cuts at the U.S. government’s main forecaster has the market on edge about adequacy of its data going forward. Graph showing Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Henry Hub natural gas price varying with seasonal volatility against Lower 48 demand. “Weather data is one of the most important data points used in the natural gas market to understand and predict demand,” an energy industry meteorologist told NGI. “Very few things influence the demand side – and occasionally the supply side – more.” Data Transmission Network (DTN) Weather and Climate Intelligence manager Renny Vandewege went further, telling NGI, “As you can imagine, weather drives natural gas decisions across the value chain, such as to inform demand peaks and supply, delivery constraints, balancing with other energy sources, and hedge-based purchasing to avoid spot market price spikes and trading.”
Motiva Restarts Unit at Port Arthur Refinery after Lengthy Overhaul -Motiva Enterprises has finally restarted a gasoline-producing unit at its huge Port Arthur refinery in Texas, following several attempts at a restart in recent weeks after an overhaul. Motiva Enterprises, the owner of the second biggest refinery in the United States, has restarted operations at the gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker (FCC) at Port Arthur, sources with knowledge of the plant’s operations told Reuters this week.The refinery’s FCC, which typically converts gas oil into unfinished gasoline, has a capacity of 81,000 bpd. As of Wednesday, the unit was operating at 69,300 bpd capacity, or 86% of full capacity, the sources said.Motiva shut the FCC unit at the end of January 2025 for an overhaul, which was planned to last two months. Since the end of March, the refiner, owned by Saudi oil giant Aramco, has made three attempts to restart the unit.The third attempt appears to have been successful as the unfinished gasoline being produced at the cracker is meeting test standards, according to Reuters’ sources.The Port Arthur Refinery produces conventional gasoline, commercial aviation fuel, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel, Export (High Cetane) Diesel, and Texas Low Emissions Diesel. The refinery typically produces 275,000 barrels of branded fuel every day and 40,000 barrels of base oil per day, according to Motiva Enterprises.The refinery is the second largest in the United States by operable capacity, after Marathon Petroleum’s 631,000-bpd refinery at Galveston Bay, Texas, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as of January 1, 2024.Of the five largest U.S. refineries, four are located in Texas and one in Louisiana, as the U.S. Gulf Coast hosts a large portion of America’s refining capacity. More than 48% of total U.S. petroleum refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast, as well as 51% of total U.S. natural gas processing plant capacity.
Army Corps fast-tracks permitting for Michigan pipeline tunnel - The move drew backlash from longtime opponents of the Line 5 project, but developer Enbridge said the review process has been underway for five years.The Army Corps of Engineers will speed up its review of a planned Michigan pipeline tunnel meant to cross under the Straits of Mackinac, exposing the stark divide between the project’s opponents and backers.On Wednesday, the Army Corps’ Detroit District named Enbridge’s Line 5 tunnel as an “energy project” that’s subject to President Donald Trump’s “energy emergency” executive order signed on his first day back in office. Trump’s order directed the Army Corps to use emergency authority under the Clean Water Act to accelerate pipeline construction.Enbridge’s underground tunnel would house a replacement segment of Line 5, which carries light crude oil and natural gas liquids and currently sits on the lakebed of the Straits of Mackinac. The straits divide Michigan’s Upper and Lower peninsulas.The project has long been a source of tension between environmental groups fearful of an oil spill in the Great Lakes, backers of the project who reject calls to shut down the pipeline and ongoing court proceedings. Now, the Army Corps has granted national energy emergency status to the $750 million tunnel project.
Oil and gas industry targets Colorado’s emission rules as Trump urges repeal of state-level energy overreach -- Western Colorado oil industry stakeholders are suing the Centennial State, in a bid that they say serves to protect energy security and job interests in the region. Specifically, the West Slope Oil & Gas Association — a branch of the Colorado Oil and Gas Association umbrella group — recently filed a complaint against the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission’s newly adopted Midstream Oil and Gas Rule. The lawsuit was submitted on March 21 but only made public in a press release last week, just days after President Trump issued an executive order that sought to protect “American energy from state overreach.” The complaint, filed in Denver County’s District Court, cites grave economic damage, infeasible implementation requirements and harm to local communities and the environment. In filing the suit, the West Slope group explained that it seeks to safeguard the state’s “critical oil and gas industry,” which generated more than $48 billion for Colorado’s economy and $15.4 billion in direct labor revenue in 2021 alone. “Colorado’s overly prescriptive and inflexible regulations have unfairly targeted the midstream operators in Western Colorado, where economic realities and logistical challenges differ significantly from the Front Range,” said Cody Davis, commissioner of Mesa County, in a statement. Davis — whose county is located along the Western Slope, the part of the state west of the Continental Divide — stressed that fossil fuel industry operators “have consistently proven their commitment to environmental stewardship.” “Yet the Commission’s one-size-fits-all approach has failed to recognize the impractical and devastating effects these new regulations will have on our West Slope communities,” the commissioner added. The Colorado Air Quality Control Commission adopted the midstream rule in December, with an effective date of Feb. 15. The first-in-nation rule addresses emissions from midstream oil and gas operations, such as facilities that gather, compress and process natural gas, as well as engines, turbines and heaters. Under the regulation, midstream facilitates have until 2030 to meet greenhouse gas emissions limits and must maintain these reduced levels each year thereafter, while adhering to additional targets beyond 2030. The West Slope Colorado Oil & Gas Association noted that in reality, this means that local operators whose pipelines and facilities transport natural gas to businesses and homes would need to cut emissions by 20.5 percent from 2015 levels by 2030.
Oil and Gas Industry Navigates Emission Reduction Challenges - Decarbonization in the oil and gas sector has long been a pressing and highly debated topic among stakeholders. With 2025 being a milestone year for emissions targets, the question remains: will it mark a period of downward revisions, a continuation of the current trajectory, or a moment for companies to intensify their efforts? The direction and scale of change will ultimately determine whether these companies can achieve their intermediate emission targets and make meaningful progress towards broader net-zero commitments. This year will be pivotal for measuring the oil and gas industry’s environmental progress, as several corporations have set 2025 as a benchmark for achieving interim reductions in Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. But the reality is that not all companies' targets and data measurement methodologies are standardized and verified by third-party organizations. Furthermore, the complexity of these metrics — and the variability of reduction measures — can raise questions about the credibility and comparability of the targets. Rystad Energy analyzes 120 key oil and gas companies, each of which has its own strategy for reducing emissions. These companies’ upstream operations collectively emitted more than 630 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, representing around 58% of the industry’s total emissions last year. The pressure to decarbonize has reshaped oil and gas company strategies in recent years, and most — from international majors to national oil companies (NOC) and regional players — publicly outlining their strategies and committing to various decarbonization pathways. This year will be a milestone for many: in our analysis, more than 20 companies have interim emission-reduction targets for 2025, especially in Scope 1 and 2. Several companies, based on the progress they reported, already achieved their intermediate 2025 targets back in 2023. For example, BP, France’s TotalEnergies and US gas independent Expand Energy had already surpassed their targets as of 2023. BP, in particular, had reduced its absolute emissions by 41% that year, well above the targeted 20%, while Expand exceeded its target by 14%. At the same time, for the second consecutive year, BP’s absolute Scope 1 and 2 emissions have increased on a year-on-year basis. In 2024 Compared to 2023, emissions rose by 5%. The company attributes this increase primarily to the ramp-up or commencement of several projects in 2024, which begs the question of how long this reverse trend will continue, as the company is no longer planning to reduce its hydrocarbon output. While target-setting is an important part of oil and gas company strategic plans, the starting points, actual performance, and understanding of how these reductions were achieved should be an essential part of their overall strategic decision-making process The chart below shows how different peer groups have managed to reduce their absolute and upstream emissions intensity since 2019. Among the 120 key oil and gas companies selected, distinct segments can be categorized to assess their progress in reducing emissions over the last five years. We analyzed upstream CO? emissions and reduction trends from 2019 to 2023 across major company categories. For example, within the NOC/INOC group, European companies such as Equinor, OMV and MOL have substantially reduced their absolute emissions and lowered their emissions intensity. In contrast, Russian NOCs such as Gazprom and Rosneft have increased their emissions in both metrics since 2019. Similar disparities are observed in the regional company and global independent segments, illustrating how regional factors and operational environments influence emission-reduction outcomes. The US and European majors segment stands out as the best-performing group. Highly scrutinized for their decarbonization efforts, these companies have implemented various strategies, including divestments, operational efficiency improvements, electrification, flaring reduction and methane emissions control. TotalEnergies, for example, has reduced emissions through combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) phase-outs, electrification, and eliminating routine flaring at assets such as OML 100 in Nigeria. Decarbonization in the oil and gas sector has long been a pressing and highly debated topic among stakeholders. With 2025 being a milestone year for emissions targets, the question remains: will it mark a period of downward revisions, a continuation of the current trajectory, or a moment for companies to intensify their efforts? The direction and scale of change will ultimately determine whether these companies can achieve their intermediate emission targets and make meaningful progress towards broader net-zero commitments.
American Shale Chief Tells Peers to Stop Drilling 'Right Away" -- Shale boss Bryan Sheffield, the son of Pioneer Natural Resources founder Scott Sheffield, appears to have called on America’s shale drillers to cut drilling immediately, as Brent crude flirts with prices below $60 and WTI falls to $57/barrel. Sheffield, who controls Formentera Partners LP, told Bloomberg he is planning to delay drilling in some cases, shift focus to existing short-term drilling contracts, and return to expanding the company’s uncompleted wells once the market stabilizes, given the chaos and oil price plunge caused in part by Trump’s tariff warfare.Sheffield reportedly told Bloomberg that the situation right now is a “blood bath”.“The industry needs to cut immediately and hunker down to let the tariff war play out,” Sheffield was quoted as saying.Earlier this week, during a Permian basin golf tournament, American shale drillers let their frustrations with the Trump administration be known, according to a Bloomberg report. The industry is frustrated over its high level of support for the new administration, which has since caused a severe oil price plunge despite promises of a future where shale drillers could “drill baby, drill”.Shale drillers contributed significantly to Trump’s election campaign and were responsible essentially for “making America great again” by catapulting the country to the status of top crude producer in the world. The betrayal is now being felt as prices continue to tank.
US drillers add oil and gas rigs for first time in four weeks, Baker Hughes says (Reuters) - U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in four weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Thursday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by two to 585 in the week to April 17. , , Sign up here. Baker Hughes released the rig count report one day early on Thursday due to the Good Friday holiday. Despite this week's rig increase, Baker Hughes said the total count was still down 34 rigs, or 5% below this time last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by one to 481 this week, while gas rigs gained one to 98. In the Utica shale basin, which covers parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, drillers added two rigs, bringing the total rig count to 13, the highest since February 2024. The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on boosting shareholder returns and paying down debt rather than increasing output. Even though analysts forecast U.S. spot crude prices would decline for a third year in a row in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected crude output would rise from a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to around 13.5 million bpd in 2025. That increase in U.S. crude output, however, was lower than EIA's outlook in March due to lower oil price forecasts as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs increase the chances of weaker global economic growth and oil demand. The EIA's annual forecast this week also showed that the nearly two-decades-old shale boom that turned the U.S. into the world's largest oil producer is drawing closer to its end, challenging Trump's vision of unleashing higher domestic oil supply. U.S. oil output will peak at 14 million bpd in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the EIA said. Shale production will peak at 10 million bpd in 2027, up from about 9.7 million bpd this year, and then fall to 9.3 million bpd by 2050.
Keystone operator restarts pipeline nearly a week after spill - The operator of the Keystone pipeline restarted the oil conduit less than a week after it ruptured, spilling thousands of barrels of crude in southeastern North Dakota.Calgary-based South Bow said Monday that federal pipeline regulators approved the company’s repair and restart plans, allowing it to move forward with a “carefully controlled” restart. Also on Monday, spokesperson Nathaniel Sizemore of the Department of Transportation confirmed that the department had given a green light to South Bow’s plans. He said the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration — which is part of DOT — acted quickly to send investigators to the site in North Dakota and to South Bow’s headquarters in Canada. “As part of our safety investigation, the operator was required to submit a repair plan and a restart plan. These plans met PHMSA standards and the agency has signed off on both,” Sizemore said in a statement. “PHMSA’s investigation is ongoing and the pipeline is operating at reduced pressure until PHMSA is confident that the pipeline can resume normal operations.”
Keystone Pipeline resumes operating after oil spill in North Dakota --The Keystone Pipeline resumed operations Monday at a reduced pressure as cleanup efforts continue from an oil spill in North Dakota. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration said it approved operator South Bow’s plan to restart the pipeline, after a corrective action order issued by the federal regulators. The company shut down the Keystone Pipeline on April 8 after a drop in pressure. South Bow later estimated that about 3,500 barrels, or 147,000 gallons, of oil spilled in a farm field near Fort Ransom. The spill was contained to the field. The failed section of pipe was excavated and replaced, according to a statement from PHMSA. The failed section will be sent to Houston for testing. South Bow in a statement described it as a “carefully controlled restart” of the pipeline. The repaired line will be tested at various pressures, regulators said. The Keystone Pipeline carries Canadian oil through the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba then south through the Midwest. Regulators remained at the spill site and planned to continue monitoring the operator’s compliance. As of Friday, an estimated 1,170 barrels, or 49,140 gallons, of oil had been recovered by five vacuum trucks.
Intensity Infrastructure plans second phase of Bakken Shale natural gas pipeline Following the conclusion of an open season on Phase 1 of the Intensity natural gas egress pipeline in the Bakken, its developer launched April 17 an open season for a second phase to take gas further east in North Dakota. Intensity Infrastructure Partners is planning a second phase of the pipeline "as a result of feedback gathered during its initial open season," it said on April 17. The second phase would comprise 208 miles of 30-inch pipeline running east from McLean County to Casselton, North Dakota, around 20 miles from the border with Minnesota. It has an estimated in-service date of Jan. 1, 2030, the company said. An open season on the first phase, which will run 136 miles from the Bakken in western North Dakota into McLean County, concluded in March. Intensity Infrastructure has slightly revised down the planned size of the first phase. It will have a diameter of 36 inches and the pipeline will have an initial capacity of 1.1 Bcf/d, expandable to 1.5 Bcf/d with compression, the company said on April 17. When launching the first open season on Feb. 3, the company had envisioned a 42-inch pipeline with an initial capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d. Intensity Infrastructure expects the gas to be consumed within the state. "The pipeline will be permitted as an intrastate Hinshaw pipeline pursuant to Section 1 (c) of the Natural Gas Act and will serve end users in North Dakota," Chief Commercial Officer Matthew Griffin said by email on April 17. Intrastate pipes are considered 'Hinshaw' lines if the gas is received and used within the state and subject to state regulation. Potential receipt points include interconnections with Northern Border and WBI Energy interstate pipeline systems, and also several gas processing plants, according to the open season document. The Intensity project is in competition with Bakken East, an expansion on the WBI Energy System that would have a capacity of up to 760,000 Dt/d and could run around 375 miles from the Bakken to central North Dakota, WBI Energy said when launching a non-binding open season in December 2024. "WBI Energy is actively engaged with potential customers and landowners along the proposed route to ensure the project is designed responsibly while meeting the long-term natural gas transportation needs of the region," spokesperson Mark Snider said on April 17. "The benefits of our existing pipeline and storage assets, as well as potential new pipeline interconnects, have been viewed positively by potential customers for this project, and we are pleased with our discussions to date." S&P Global Commodity Insights expects production to peak around 3.8 Bcf/d in the mid to late 2030s, up from current production of around 2.6 Bcf/d, analyst Anna Trier said. For now, limited pipeline capacity is constraining production, which has been hovering close to 2.6 Bcf/d since late 2023, according to data from Commodity Insights. Gas produced in the Bakken competes with Canadian gas for space on the Northern Border Pipeline, driving down prices in Western Canada; The AECO C cash prices held an average discount of $2.68/MMBtu to Henry Hub in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 53 cents in the same period of 2024 according to data from Platts, part of Commodity Insights. So far this April the basis discount has averaged $1.94/MMBtu, compared with 57 cents/MMBtu in April 2024. Some relief for the basin will come when Kinder Morgan's Bakken xPress and TC Energy's Bison XPress start service. The linked projects will add 300 MMcf/d of transport capacity from the Bakken to the Cheyenne Hub. The projects were approved by the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in October 2024 and are planned to start service in 2026.
Oil company fined record $18 million for defying state orders to stop work on pipeline -The California Coastal Commission fined an oil company a record $18 million on Thursday for repeatedly defying orders to stop work on a corroded pipeline in Santa Barbara County that caused a major oil spill nearly a decade ago. The vote sets the stage for a potentially high-stakes test of the state’s power to police oil development along the coast. The onshore pipeline in Gaviota gushed more than 100,000 gallons of crude oil onto coastal land and ocean waters, shutting down fisheries, closing beaches and harming marine life and coastal habitats in 2015. Sable Offshore Corp., a Houston-based company, purchased the pipeline from the previous owners, Exxon Mobil, last year, and is seeking to restart the Santa Ynez offshore oil operation.The Coastal Commission said Sable has done something no alleged violator has ever done before: ignoring the agency’s multiple cease-and-desist orders and continuing its work. “Our orders were valid and legally issued, and Sable’s refusal to comply is a refusal to follow the law,” said Commissioner Meagan Harmon, who also is a member of the Santa Barbara City Council. “Their refusal, in a very real sense, is a subversion of the will of the people of the state of California.”The company argued it can proceed using the pipeline’s original county permit issued in the 1980s. In February, Sable sued the Coastal Commission saying the state is unlawfully halting the company’s repair and maintenance work. At a 5-hour public hearing in Santa Barbara, more than 100 speakers lined up, many of them urging the commission to penalize Sable and stop its work. Some invoked memories of the 2015 Refugio Oil Spill as well as the massive 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill caused by a blowout on a Union Oil drilling rig.
Valero may shutter Northern California refinery - Valero Energy announced Wednesday it is considering whether to close one of its two California oil refineries next year, putting the state on notice that it could lose nearly 9 percent of its refining capacity. Valero Refining, a subsidiary of Valero Energy, said it had notified the California Energy Commission of its plans “to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations” at its Benicia refinery by the end of April 2026.It’s the second California refinery to announce a pending closure in the past six months as the state targets the oil industry in an effort to rein in carbon emissions and gas prices. The refinery is the state’s sixth-largest, responsible for about 9 percent of the state’s crude oil refining capacity, according to the California Energy Commission. It produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt and employs about 400 people.
Chris Wright promised a ‘golden age’ for oil. His old company is bracing for a storm. - The oil company founded by Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported falling profits Thursday, warning investors that the oil industry faces “storm clouds on the horizon” amid President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz. Liberty Energy is a barometer of the health of America’s oil patch. The Denver-based company provides fracking services to oil and gas companies, and it is of growing importance today — as the company was founded by Wright and is one of the first oil firms to report its first quarter earnings amid the president’s push to impose tariffs on a broad-range of imported goods. “As we look forward, of course, there are some storm clouds on the horizon,” Liberty CEO Ron Gusek told financial analysts. “We don’t know if that storm is going to roll in here or not.” Liberty executives sought to put a good face on the moment. They noted the oil and gas industry is a cyclical business and that drillers are in better shape to withstand a downturn than in previous years. They predicted drilling activity would pick up in the second quarter, as winter turned to spring. And they expressed hope that Trump’s decision to pause a wide range of tariffs had relieved pressure on the global economy. But the tone was a far cry from the “golden era of American energy dominance” that Wright promised shortly after becoming Energy secretary earlier this year. Liberty’s quarterly profit of $165 million represented its worst quarter since the first three months of 2022 and was down from almost $239 million in the same quarter last year. Liberty’s stock has fallen around 40 percent since the start of year. Company executives conceded a slowdown in the oil patch could occur if oil prices continued to slide. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for American crude, has lost more than 20 percent from its high of around $80 a barrel in early January. The company will be closely watching its capital expenditures and share buyback as market conditions evolved, Gusek said, adding, “We will be keenly focused on a fortress like balance sheet that will enable us to navigate whatever is coming our way.” The Department of Energy did not respond to a request for comment.
EIA Annual Energy Outlook: Oil & NatGas Demand Peaks in 2027/2032 -- Marcellus Drilling News - Et tu, Brute? We’ve poked fun at “peak oil” and “peak gas” quacks for years (over a decade). People like Art Berman who pronounce, on a regular basis, that we’ve finally hit peak oil (or gas) production and/or demand, and that from here on out, fossil fuels will decline. They’re wrong every single time. Yet now, none other than the number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are making their own “peak” predictions. In its latest Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2025, the EIA says we will likely see U.S. crude oil output hit a peak of 14 million barrels per day by 2027. Natural gas has a longer fuse, hitting a high of 43.44 trillion cubic feet per annum in 2032.
White House moves to cut BLM lands rule, Alaska protections - The Trump administration is moving to rescind two key Biden-era rules finalized by the Bureau of Land Management last year that advanced protections for millions of acres across the West and Alaska’s North Slope.The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs posted a notice Tuesday that BLM’s signature public lands rule, which was implemented in June, is under formal review and has been marked for possible “rescission.”OIRA, which is part of the White House Office of Management and Budget, also posted Tuesday it is reviewing a BLM rule implemented last year that restricts oil and gas development in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A).Both notices indicate the review involves BLM developing proposed rules to rescind the two Biden-era policies. An Interior Department spokesperson said in a brief emailed statement to POLITICO’s E&E News that, in accordance with orders issued in February by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to increase energy development on public lands, “the BLM will pursue rescinding both rules.”The rescission of both rules would affect the management of millions of acres of public lands. The conservation and landscape health rule includes measures to place conservation and restoration on par with oil and gas drilling, mining and other uses across 245 million acres overseen by BLM; the NPR-A rule restricted oil and gas development within the 23-million-acre reserve in Alaska’s North Slope.The timeline for completing the reviews and rules rescission isn’t clear. Nor is it known whether there will be opportunities for public review and comment.A White House spokesperson referred questions about the OIRA review notices to the Interior Department, which did not address the timeline for rescinding the rules in its emailed statement. OMB representatives didn’t respond to a request for information.The OIRA reviews are not surprising, given that congressional Republicans have made several attempts to revoke the public lands rule. What’s more, both President Donald Trump and Burgum have publicly discussed plans to ramp up development of oil and gas and other mineral resources across Alaska.Burgum may have telegraphed the NPR-A rule review last week when he told Interior employees during an “All Hands Meeting” that restricting oil and gas development there makes no sense, noting it serves as the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve.He also mocked the controversy over BLM’s approval in 2023 of ConocoPhillips’ Willow drilling project inside the NPR-A.“This is not a national wildlife refuge, it’s the national strategic petroleum reserve,” Burgum told employees. “We have a bunch of resources on the North Slope, it was designated, and then somehow we decided we can’t even produce energy in a national strategic petroleum reserve.”
DC Circuit rebuffs challenge to DOE approval of Alaska gas exports -- A federal appeals court has dismissed an effort by environmental groups to challenge a Department of Energy gas export approval for a planned Alaska terminal.In a 12-page decision Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit sided with DOE and a 2023 order from the department.DOE’s order affirmed a Trump-era approval from 2020 that authorized liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the proposed Alaska LNG project to countries that don’t have a free trade agreement with the United States. Environmental groups argued in October that DOE’s review of the Alaska LNG proposal under the National Environmental Policy Act was “uneven” and included uncertainties about the project’s climate risk, while finding the project would be economically positive.
Trump administration moves to expand offshore drilling — including in the Arctic --The Trump administration announced Friday it was moving to expand offshore drilling, potentially including in the Arctic. In a Friday press release, the Trump administration said it would replace a Biden-era plan for offshore drilling in the years ahead that included the fewest number of opportunities for new drilling in the history of the program. The administration also indicated it was eyeing future drilling off Alaska’s coast in the “High Arctic” — in contrast with the Biden plan that drilled only in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s not entirely clear where exactly all new drilling will take place under the Trump plan, as the initial step being taken is called a “request for information,” which seeks to ask the public for input on where and when it should auction off offshore drilling rights. But Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, in the press release, indicated it would advance the administration’s goal of producing more oil and gas “Launching the process to develop the 11th National Outer Continental Shelf Program marks a decisive step toward securing American Energy Dominance,” Burgum said. “Through a transparent and inclusive public engagement process, we are reinforcing our commitment to responsible offshore energy development—driving job creation, bolstering economic growth and strengthening American energy independence.”
DC Circuit leans toward FERC in Texas-to-Mexico gas pipeline case - An appeals court appeared likely Thursday to uphold federal energy regulators’ limited jurisdiction over a proposed pipeline carrying Texas gas bound for a planned liquefied natural gas export facility in Mexico. During oral arguments, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit appeared unswayed by claims that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission improperly restricted its analysis of ONEOK’s Saguaro Connector pipeline to 1,000 feet of the project near the U.S.-Mexico border. The judges pressed for clarity on what the Natural Gas Act said about FERC’s legal obligations to analyze the pipeline exporting gas. “What is the test that we, FERC or whoever are supposed to apply?” asked Judge Patricia Millett, an Obama appointee. “There has to be some legal basis to say that FERC had to define the export facility longer,” she said, referring to the segment of the pipeline crossing the border.
Uniper Nets 2 Mt/y in LNG Supply Deals Linked to Woodside’s Louisiana LNG -- Germany’s Uniper SE has secured multiple supply deals with Australia’s Woodside Energy Group Ltd., including for U.S. LNG, as the Louisiana export project moves toward sanctioning. Uniper, Europe’s largest natural gas buyer, agreed to purchase up to 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) in a pair of deals disclosed Wednesday (April 16). “This deal will support our security of supply and flexible generation strategy together with the potential development of additional gas-fired power plants in Germany to complement the renewable build-up,” Uniper CEO Michael Lewis said.
Summer LNG Import Forecasts Signal Higher Demand, Natural Gas Prices — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 20%: The European Union’s (EU) energy regulatory authority estimates that member states will have to import more LNG at a higher price than last year to meet the bloc’s 90% storage target. The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) forecast that the EU would need to import 20% more LNG, around 70 Bcm, during the coming summer than it did last year. Forward prices in April also indicate global LNG prices would continue to rise after a 50% year/year jump during the winter, according to ACER researchers.
- 10 Mt: Europe’s rise in LNG demand this summer is a part of an overall squeeze in supply and upturn in global prices this year, according to Kpler analysts. The firm estimated LNG imports between April and September would jump 10 million tons (Mt) compared with last year, reaching nearly 204 Mt. Most of those volumes are expected to head to Europe, but Egypt and China also are forecast to increase summer LNG imports year/year as above average heat sets in.
- 50 cents: European benchmark natural gas prices are rising slightly after tariff news shocked the market. However, EU LNG importers still could be hesitant to make a move given the uncertainty of a looming trade war, analysts with Energi Danmark said. The Title Transfer Facility rose almost 50 cents by the middle of the week, compared to $10.947/MMBtu at Friday close. Meanwhile, spot East Asian LNG prices have continued to stay about $1 ahead of Europe as buyers search for volumes.
- $3.85: Venture Global LNG Inc. has loaded its first cargo for a long-term contractor holder from its Calcasieu Pass terminal, marking a shift in its earnings outlook. Galp Energia SGPS SA disclosed Wednesday that a ship loaded at the Louisiana facility earlier in the week with the firm’s first contracted cargo. Venture Global has estimated that it could earn an average $3.85/MMBtu fee for contracted volumes, compared to $7.94 per spot cargo from Plaquemines LNG.
Unplanned Outages in Asia, Europe Halt Steep Drop in Global Natural Gas Prices — LNG Recap - Supply disruptions in Asia and Europe helped to lift natural gas prices on Monday in a break from the steady declines that have characterized the market in recent weeks amid increasing trade tensions. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. President Trump’s onslaught of tariffs have spooked financial markets and weighed on commodity prices. But temporary exemptions from U.S. tariffs on smartphones and computers offered a reprieve as the financial markets rallied Monday. Meanwhile, problems at the Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin fields offshore Norway, along with issues at LNG terminals serving Asia, helped lift prices. The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract, which has fallen for three weeks in a row, gained 3% to finish at $11.45/MMBtu on Monday.
Indonesia to Offer to Buy $10 Billion of Additional U.S. Energy Goods - As Indonesia seeks to negotiate a reduction of a planned tariff of 32% on Indonesian goods sold in the United States, the government of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy will offer to buy an additional $10 billion worth of American oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Indonesia was slapped with one of the highest tariffs - 32% - in the “liberation day” tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. These tariffs were suspended last week for 90 days, during which the Trump Administration expects most countries to come pleading their cases and promising to boost their imports of U.S. goods to avoid high tariffs. Indonesia’s Energy Ministry has recommended an increase in the import quota for U.S. LPG and higher imports of U.S. crude oil, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia told local media on Tuesday. With the offer of $10 billion more U.S. energy imports, Indonesia plans to buy total U.S. goods worth between $18 billion and $19 billion to eliminate its trade surplus with America. Indonesian officials are heading to the U.S. to discuss tariffs and how to potentially buy their way out of them. Indonesia’s imports of U.S. crude oil are estimated to have averaged just 13,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year, out of the total 306,000 bpd crude imports, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Indonesia is just one of the countries looking to buy their way out of steep tariffs with deals to purchase American energy products. South Asian nation Pakistan is actively considering the idea of importing U.S. crude oil for the first time to seek a reduction of its trade surplus with America. South Korea is reportedly looking at more LNG imports to get Washington to drop the tariffs, while India is weighing the option to scrap its import tax on American liquefied natural gas to increase U.S. LNG imports and reduce its trade surplus with the United States.
Pakistan Weighs First-Ever U.S. Oil Imports to Reduce Trade Surplus - Pakistan is actively considering the idea of importing U.S. crude oil for the first time to seek a reduction of its trade surplus with America and avoid one of the highest tariffs – currently paused – on its goods sold in the United States.Crude oil is one of the products that Pakistan is actively exploring to buy from the U.S. to appease President Donald Trump, a Pakistani government source and an executive at a local refinery told Reuters on Tuesday.Pakistan imported about 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last year, mostly from the major OPEC producers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).Now, the South Asian country is weighing the possibility of buying U.S. crude for the first time ever to avoid a 29% tariff on its goods sold in America, its top trade partner. The 29% tariff on Pakistani goods was announced by President Trump on the so-called “liberation day,” but was paused for 90 days last week, as were all additional tariffs on all other countries except China.A Pakistani delegation is heading to Washington D.C. these days to negotiatetariffs and could use a minerals deal as leverage, government officials told the BBC on Monday.Crude oil “is one of the products being reviewed ahead of a delegation leaving for the U.S. to talk about tariffs,” the government source directly involved with the proposal to buy more U.S. crude told Reuters.Pakistan’s idea is to buy crude oil from the United States equivalent to the value of its current imports of oil and refined products, which is estimated at around $1 billion, the refinery executive told Reuters.Pakistan is just one of the countries looking to buy their way out of steep tariffs with deals to purchase American energy products. South Korea, for example, is reportedlylooking at more LNG imports to get Washington to drop the tariffs, while India is weighing the option to scrap its import tax on American liquefied natural gas to increase U.S. LNG imports and reduce its trade surplus with the United States.
Ecuador Oil Spill Affected 150,000 People, UN Assessment Finds *A massive oil spill in Ecuador last month has left at least 150,000 people in need of humanitarian assistance, according to an assessment by UN aid coordination office OCHA. The disaster was caused by the rupture of the SOTE pipeline in Esmeraldas province in March, resulting in the spilling of more than 25,000 barrels of oil. The UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination, team, which is part of OCHA, carried out the assessment. In addition to the thousands affected, the team also pointed to a concerning increase in respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases, as well as limited access to safe drinking water. People's livelihoods have been particularly hit hard, especially in fishing, agriculture and shellfish harvesting. OCHA said more than 37,000 women have lost their means of earning a living. Many are shellfish gatherers and now face growing health risks and exposure to gender-based violence. According to a press release, the UN is testing water from affected rivers, treatment plants and seafood from the ocean to see if it has the presence of hydrocarbons and heavy metals, as it could have long term environmental and health repercussions. UN Resident Coordinator in Ecuador Lena Savelli has shared the findings and recommendations with Government ministers and the national humanitarian forum.
Guerillas Blow Up Oil Pipeline in Colombia -The Bicentenario crude oil pipeline in Colombia has been shut down following an explosion that state oil company Ecopetrol said was caused by a guerrilla attack.Per a Reuters report citing the company, the Bicentenario pipeline was hit by the National Liberation Army. Reuters notes the NLA is the largest guerrilla organization in Colombia and is considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. Guerilla groups have recently stepped up their attacks on oil pipelines in Colombia. Last year, at one point Ecopetrol reportedas many as five attacks on two pipelines: Bicentenario and Cano Limon-Covenas. The government deployed the army to the pipelines to protect Ecopetrol staff that was repairing the infrastructure.Colombia has been struggling to reverse a decline in oil production over the past five years and now has an ambition to boost its daily average to over 1 million barrels, from around 800,000 barrels in 2024. State oil company Ecopetrol is contributing to the output increase through enhanced oil recovery techniques, improving extraction volumes from reservoirs. Colombia's 2024 oil recovery rate averaged 27 percent, energy minister Andres Camacho said last May.At the same time, the current government has ambitious plans for wind and solar growth as it seeks to reduce Colombia’s dependence on oil, gas, and coal revenues. Hydrocarbons, however, remain a major contributor to budget revenues and the most likely source of transition money, given the price tag of the government’s green plan is $40 billion. Back in 2022, when he came to power, Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro pledged to shift Colombia’s economy away from oil, coal, and gas, in favour of lower-carbon energy alternatives. At the 2023 COP28, Petro became the first leader of a large energy producer to vow phasing out hydrocarbons endorsing a call for something called a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. He also suspended the issuance of new oil and gas licenses in Colombia.
An LNG export tax is the best way to address looming gas shortages and reduce prices | IEEFA --Domestic gas reservation in Australia’s troubled east coast gas market has grabbed headlines in recent weeks, as have gas industry warnings that further market intervention will only make things worse. Eastern Australia faces gas shortages by 2030, and four main solutions are proposed to solve this issue: increasing domestic supply, decreasing domestic demand, importing liquified natural gas (LNG) or redirecting LNG exports to the domestic market (gas reservation).Gas industry group Australian Energy Producers (AEP) argues that “governments and regulators must work with industry to remove regulatory barriers to new gas supply and investment to avoid shortfalls”. New gas production does not, however, guarantee domestic gas supply. Since FY2014-15, gas production has doubled on the east coast but domestic gas consumption has fallen by 25% due to gas prices tripling and Queensland LNG exporters effectively soaking up domestic production for export markets. The federal government also has limited measures to encourage new gas production quickly. In practice, there are only a handful of proposed projects in offshore waters on the east coast (over which the federal government has oversight), but none of the developers cite regulatory approval as a barrier to their projects. Even if they did, it generally takes two to five years for new gas projects to begin supply, unlikely to be fast enough to address the risks of shortages. There is also the risk that even if new gas projects are developed in time, actual production may be less than anticipated. IEEFA modelling shows there is a great potential to decrease gas demand through energy efficiency and electrification for households and some industries. This would lower energy bills, insulate those consumers from high gas prices and materially reduce, but not fully address, the risk of gas shortages. There are a number of live projects to build LNG import terminals in Eastern Australia. They provide a realistic short-term solution to increase supply, but the gas is likely to come at a higher cost than domestically produced gas – at least under current market conditions. This is because significant costs are involved in liquefying the gas, transporting it, then regasifying it. Conversely, IEEFA research has shown significant amounts of uncontracted gas destined for export as spot LNG could be redirected to the domestic market with relatively limited financial impact on LNG producers. Put simply, addressing the risks of gas shortages without increasing gas prices will likely require some form of reservation.
China Halts U.S. LNG Imports Amid Tariff War - China hasn’t imported liquefied natural gas from the United States since early February, as the tariff war hit energy trade and could have long-term consequences for U.S. LNG export contracts.The last LNG cargo to arrive in China from America was a tanker from Corpus Christi, which docked in the southern Chinese province of Fujian on February 6, according to shipping data cited by the Financial Times.The Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods, including energy products, and the broader trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could have long-term consequences on the ability of new U.S. LNG export projects to attract anchor offtake commitments, analysts warn.“I do not think Chinese LNG importers will ever contract any new US LNG,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas specialist at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told FT.Since the U.S.-China trade war escalated, China’s LNG buyers have been reselling the cargoes they are buying from the U.S. as Chinese tariffs on American goods are raising the costs of U.S. LNG imports.LNG import demand in China has been weaker this year amid comfortably full winter inventories. Chinese LNG imports are expected to drop this year, according to the latest estimates from BloombergNEF. China is set to see the first annual decline in LNG imports since 2022.The trade war and the new tariffs on U.S. LNG are driving major Chinese LNG buyers to stop imports from the United States and resell the cargoes they have already bought or contracted. Following the tariffs, Chinese LNG buyers with long-term supply contracts with U.S. producers have started reselling the cargoes to Europe, Bloomberg reported, citing trading sources. What’s more, Chinese traders have grown cold towards new long-term commitments for future supply from the United States, instead seeking long-term deals with gas producers in the Middle East and the Asia Pacific.
Understanding the competitive landscape for China’s LNG market –IEEFA - Over the last decade, China has been a shining star in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. When markets waned in 2016 due to global oversupply, China jumpstarted LNG purchases to become the world’s largest importer in 2021. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese companies signed a flurry of LNG deals while European buyers hesitated to commit to long-term contracts. Gas exporters have also touted LNG’s potential to replace coal and reduce emissions in China. A United States (U.S.) gas producer recently suggested that since China’s electricity mix “mirrors” that of Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2005, China might use LNG to pursue a similar coal-to-gas switching model. When viewed as a simple substitute for coal, China’s LNG demand appears limitless. However, the role of LNG can only be understood in relation to its alternatives. LNG faces intense competition from coal, renewables, and other gas sources in terms of both cost and energy security. In the power sector, for example, LNG has yet to make a dent in China’s coal usage due to high costs and the rapid growth of cheaper renewables. As a result, many expect the rate of China’s gas demand growth to slow, curtailing the need for LNG.Ongoing volatility in global markets and escalating tensions with suppliers like the U.S. have only weakened the case for LNG in China. If the country’s demand stagnates and remains price-responsive, Chinese companies may increasingly look to resell contracted LNG abroad, exacerbating global market oversupply set to emergelater this decade.At first glance, China’s LNG market appears to be booming. Imports jumped nearly 9% in 2024 to 106 billion cubic meters (bcm) or 78 million tonnes (mt), according to Kpler data. The country’s supply came from Australia (34%), Qatar (24%), Malaysia (10%), Russia (9%), and the U.S. (6%).Despite the year-on-year increase in 2024, China’s LNG imports fell 2% shy of record purchases in 2021 and grew at a slower pace than in 2023. The country’s multi-year demand recovery demonstrates the prolonged consequences of market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty on LNG demand.Lower imports compared to three years earlier reflect the country’s slower economic growth, COVID-19 lockdowns, and unaffordable LNG prices exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As prices started to jump in late 2021, Chinese buyers were forced to withdraw from spot markets entirely. In 2022, Chinese LNG demand plummeted 19%.At the same time, Chinese companies dramatically reduced their future spot market exposure by signing long-term contracts. In 2021 and 2022, China signed a combined 44mt of LNG contracts, four times the volume signed in the two years prior. Most of those contracts were signed with the U.S., followed by Qatar, and the largest share will begin deliveries in 2026.China may have sufficient LNG purchase agreements to satisfy LNG demand through 2030, which means Chinese buyers will likely sign fewer contracts in the future. However, this does not necessarily imply that contracted volumes will land in China. Since the majority are with U.S. suppliers offering flexible destination terms, Chinese companies, many of which are active LNG traders, can resell volumes abroad if fundamentals at home favor other energy resources.Although new LNG purchase contracts will begin in the coming years, China has met a growing share of its overall natural gas demand from cheaper, more reliable gas sources, namely domestic production and pipeline imports.Preliminary figures indicate that China’s overall gas consumption increased by 30.7bcm, reaching 428bcm in 2024. Since 2017, China’s apparent gas demand — production plus imports — has increased at an average rate of 8% annually. The largest share of natural gas is consumed in the industrial and city gas segments — which account for 42% and 33%, respectively — followed by the power and fertilizer sectors.
EU plan to end Russian oil and gas imports due out in May -The European Commission will unveil a detailed strategy in May 2025 to phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2027, following delays due to uncertainties around U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs, which may impact EU-U.S. energy trade talks. Initially slated for release in March, the roadmap, now set for May 6, aims to end the EU’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels in response to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite a significant drop in Russian pipeline gas deliveries since 2022, the EU increased its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2024, with Russia supplying 19% of the bloc’s total gas and LNG. The Commission has not detailed specific measures but analysts suggest tariffs on Russian gas imports. The EU is also considering increased LNG purchases from the U.S., though concerns persist about over-reliance on American supplies amid Trump’s trade negotiations.
Key Turkish Refinery Gets Back Into Russian Oil - Turkey’s top oil refiner, Tupras, has resumed purchasing Russian Urals crude oil after a brief halt earlier this year prompted by U.S. sanctions on Moscow. According to trading sources and shipping data reviewed by Reuters, the company restarted imports following a drop in Urals prices below the G7's price cap, reaching their lowest point since 2023. Tupras had previously become one of the largest buyers of Russian crude after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the first 11 months of 2024, Russian oil accounted for roughly 65% of Turkey’s total oil imports, based on figures from the country’s energy regulator. Although Tupras did not respond to requests for comment, the shift signals a renewed effort to balance geopolitical constraints with economic pragmatism. Tupras’ choice to return to the Russian market appears to be driven more by pricing than politics, as the affordability of Urals crude makes it a financially attractive option despite ongoing Western sanctions. This development comes as global energy markets remain volatile due to conflicts, shifting alliances, and sanctions regimes. The market will be watching to see whether Tupras’ move will prompt others to take similar actions. Right now, everyone is in limbo, trying to test the waters between sanctions compliance and the desire for cheap oil. Earlier this month, Urals crude plunged along with other oil benchmarks, dropping close to $50 per barrel for the first time in nearly two years. On Wednesday, April 16, at 11:46 a.m. Urals was trading at $67.61, compared to Brent crude at $65.96 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $62.63. The Tupras exclusive by Reuters comes a day after reports that the European Commission will, on May 6, unveil its big plan to phase out all Russian oil and gas by 2027, according to a Reuters report.
Sanctioned Russian Oil Exports to China Jump as STS Transfers Rise -Chinese imports of Arctic Russian crude grades are on the rise as ship-to-ship (STS) transfers from sanctioned vessels on non-sanctioned tankers offshore Malaysia and Singapore are booming, according to traders and analysts. The Biden Administration’s farewell sanctions on Russian oil trade and exports sanctioned dozens of vessels carrying the ARCO, Novy port, and Varandey crudes from Russia’s Arctic oil projects. The sanctions, slapped in early January, blacklisted dozens of vessels that Russia used to ship the ESPO crude blend from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino to China’s independent refiners. Many of the vessels, specialized tankers, and shuttle tankers transporting Russia’s oil from the Arctic and Far East Pacific fields and production clusters to Asia have now been sanctioned. Since Chinese buyers began demanding oil to be delivered on non-sanctioned vessels, STS transfers in the South China Sea and near Singapore have been picking up, Russian oil traders have told Reuters. As many as 4 million barrels of Russia’s Arctic crude oil was transferred via STS last week, Emma Li, senior analyst at energy flows analytics firm Vortexa, told Reuters. Another 16 million barrels of Arctic crude from Russia have either arrived or are planned to arrive in the South China Sea in April, Li added. Last month, Chinese crude oil imports rebounded to a 20-month high, also due to increased imports of Russian and Iranian oil. A massive reshuffling of tankers following the sanctions on Russia and Iran has allowed non-sanctioned vessels to pick up trade with Russian and Iranian oil. Iranian crude imports into China surged to a record 1.8 million bpd in March, with Shandong alone absorbing more than 1.5 million bpd and marking a nearly 50% jump from the 2024 average, according to Vortexa. Russian crude is also on the rebound in China, with many cargoes on sanctioned tankers finding buyers in Shandong. Moreover, stranded Russian Arctic cargoes are now targeting Chinese teapot buyers via STS transfers using the dark fleet, Vortexa’s Li noted.
Iraq Plans Oil Export Cuts as OPEC Pushes Discipline-- Iraq plans to cut oil exports next month as OPEC presses members to adhere to production targets, according to an official with knowledge of the matter. The group’s second-largest producer aims to reduce shipments by roughly 100,000 barrels a day to an average of 3.2 million barrels a day in May, the official said, asking not to be identified as the figures aren’t public. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners announced last month they would gradually start reviving production halted two years ago, but sought to offset the increases by insisting on better discipline from quota-violators. Baghdad, along with some other members of the OPEC alliance, is under pressure from the group’s leaders to make extra supply curbs as compensation for overproducing during the past year. OPEC uses oil production rather than exports to measure compliance with its targets. Iraq’s output was about 90,000 barrels a day more than its target last month, according to figures used by OPEC , while estimates from the International Energy Agency put the figure more than 300,000 barrels a day above its quota. While Iraq’s export reduction may indicate it has correspondingly curbed production, an associated drop isn’t guaranteed. The country has in the past often promised quota adherence and then failed to deliver. Baghdad has long chafed against OPEC output limits, as it seeks to rebuild its economy and trading relationships after decades of sanctions and conflict. The country would need an oil price of $92 a barrel in order to cover government spending this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Brent crude futures are trading near $65. Data from OPEC released on Wednesday showed that Iraq made some notional progress with its compensation backlog last month, while Kazakhstan — the group’s biggest offender — instead flouted its limits even more blatantly.
Iraq signs contract for third offshore oil export pipeline - Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announced on Sunday that state-owned Basra Oil Company has signed a contract with Italy’s MICOPERI and Turkey’s ESTA to construct the country’s third offshore crude export pipeline. The new pipeline, which will have a design capacity of 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd), is aimed at enhancing the flexibility and stability of Iraq’s oil exports through its southern ports, local media report citing official statement. The infrastructure will support export operations through Basra Oil Terminal, Khor Al-Amaya Oil Terminal, and a floating Single Point Mooring (SPM) platform. The project scope includes the installation of a 48-inch offshore pipeline extending 61 kilometres at sea and 9 kilometres on land. It also involves the construction of two offshore platforms—one each at Basra Oil Terminal and Khor Al-Amaya—and the deployment of a floating SPM platform. The project cost and completion timelines weren’t disclosed.
OPEC Lowers 2025 Oil Demand Forecast on Trade Tensions - OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing escalating trade tensions and weaker-than-expected economic indicators. The cartel now anticipates a demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, down 150,000 bpd from its previous projection. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been adjusted downward to 1.28 million bpd. OPEC's latest report highlights that Trump’s tariff war has dampened economic activity, leading to a more cautious outlook on oil consumption. The organization also revised its global economic growth forecast, now projecting a 3% expansion for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 3.1%. Last week, eight OPEC+ countries announced they would phase-out voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May--equivalent to three monthly increments. In other words, the Saudis are signaling they might be willing to give up their long-time role as OPEC’s swing producer in an attempt to take a tougher stance against countries that continue to violate the output pact, most notably Kazakhstan, the UAE and Iraq. The revised forecasts have also impacted oil prices, with Brent crude trading near $66 per barrel, influenced by both the demand outlook and recent tariff exemptions. Analysts suggest that continued trade disputes could further affect market dynamics and investor confidence.? On Monday, April 14, at 11:44 a.m., Brent crude was still trading under $65 per barrel, with the only good news being that it was trading flat instead of down, up a slight 0.05%. The U.S. crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading down 0.24% at $61.35. For traders, all eyes now will be awaiting the monthly oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is set to be released on Tuesday.
IEA slashes 2025 oil demand forecast as trade tensions escalate With escalating trade tensions significantly impacting the global economic outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting a dramatic fall in oil demand. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published on 15 April, the IEA has downgraded world oil demand growth for 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) since the previous month’s report to 730,000b/d. This latest downgrade comes on the heels of robust oil consumption in the first quarter of 2025, which was up by 1.2 million b/d year-on-year, the strongest rate since 2023. The IEA said the recent escalation of trade tensions had negatively impacted the economic outlook. “After a period of relative calm, global oil markets were roiled by a barrage of trade tariff announcements in early April,” the IEA reported. “Benchmark crude oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in four years on a sharp escalation in trade tensions and the prospect of higher supplies from some OPEC+ countries.” While imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from the tariffs announced by the US, concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes weighed on oil prices. The IEA noted that Brent futures tumbled by more than $23 per barrel to below $94/bbl after the tariffs first hit, but subsequently recovered to around $102/bbl after the implementation of some of the tariffs was postponed. The decision by some OPEC+ members to accelerate the unwinding of extra voluntary production cuts added to the bearish momentum. “With arduous trade negotiations expected to take place during the coming 90-day reprieve on tariffs and possibly beyond, oil markets are in for a bumpy ride and considerable uncertainties hang over our forecasts for this year and next,” the IEA noted. “Global oil demand growth prospects are rapidly shrinking as drastic trade tariffs threaten to hit consumption in the US and China.” “Responding to a paradigm shift in the global economy, the IEA now sees world oil demand growing by […] roughly two-thirds of its previous forecast, to reach 103.5 million b/d.”
'Paradigm shift' in world economy to slash oil demand growth by one-third: IEA | S&P Global -Global oil demand growth prospects are rapidly shrinking as drastic trade tariffs threaten to hit consumption in the US and China, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report published April 15. Responding to a "paradigm shift in the global economy," the IEA now sees world oil demand growing by just 730,000 b/d this year, roughly two-thirds of its previous forecast, to reach 103.5 million b/d. Seeing a prolonged fallout from a new high-tariff environment initiated by US President Donald Trump on April 2, growth could slow to just 690,000 b/d in 2026, according to new guidance from the Paris-based energy watchdog. "Within a matter of days, the outlook went from solid, if subpar, economic growth to the possibility of recession and expectations of a period of heightened protectionism," it said. Based on its latest figures, the IEA expects a global oil supply overhang of almost 700,000 b/d in 2025, rising to roughly 1 million b/d in 2026. It sees growth in non-OPEC+ supply alone "comfortably eclipsing" consumption growth next year. The IEA had already begun trimming its demand outlook on fears of underwhelming consumption data, warning that key growth markets such as China, India and Southeast Asia could suffer the effects of a deteriorating trade environment. The IEA said emerging Asian economies could consume roughly 600,000 b/d more oil in 2026 than in 2025, while OECD demand is bound for a year-over-year decline. The US and Chinese demand are among the most exposed to slowing economic performance, according to the IEA, which sees particularly punitive tariffs exchanged by the two global powers accounting for half the decline in its 2025 global oil growth outlook. As of April 11, the US and China have pledged import tariffs of 145% and 125% on each other's goods, risking severe repercussions for discretionary spending and industrial growth. Though tariff policies have already proved highly volatile, the IEA warned that "renewed trade hostilities" between the two countries are "unlikely to be short-lived," cautioning that Chinese oil product imports of LPG and ethane could also be caught in the crossfire. Globally, the IEA revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.4%, warning that the shift could disproportionately hit oil-intensive developing economies. In India, demand contracted for a second month, falling 20,000 b/d year over year in March, though Brazil's consumption outperformed expectations. In an April 4 note, S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts projected that global GDP growth could fall as low as 1.6% in 2025, seeing world oil demand increases drop from 1.2 million b/d to 700,000 b/d or less. The latest monthly oil market report from the OPEC producers' alliance, released on April 14, agreed that tariffs would constrain the world oil demand growth outlook, but it still sees consumption climbing 1.3 million b/d in 2025. The IEA said oil supply growth could also be negatively impacted by the White House's raft of new tariffs, despite OPEC+'s surprise move to lift its output targets. Its latest report put global supply growth at 1.2 million b/d this year, 260,000 b/d lower than its previous outlook. In 2026, the agency now sees production climbing by 960,000 b/d to reach a total of 105.2 million b/d. The revision was led by a 150,000 b/d downgrade to the 2025 production outlook in the US, where drilling can be highly price-elastic. After April 2 tariff announcements shaved roughly $10/b off global oil benchmarks, prices have underperformed the $65/b threshold US shale producers target to drill new wells, the IEA said, warning of likely production shut-ins. US benchmark WTI crude futures were last trading at roughly $62/b at around 0830 GMT on April 15, leaving jitters among producers as prices recovered from below $57/b on April 7. Beyond the US, weaker Venezuelan output promises to drag on the overall outlook for OPEC+ supply, the IEA said, reducing its overall output forecast for the alliance by 50,000 b/d in 2025. Noting falling export activity after a US sanctions crackdown on Venezuela, the report cut its output forecast for the South American oil producer by 100,000 b/d from May onwards. The agency was unmoved by OPEC+'s April 3 pledge to return 411,000 b/d to the market in May, expecting that recent overproduction among its members would limit the real impact felt across the market. "A number of countries, including Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, are already producing well above their targets," the report said, adding that compensation plans by some producers could curb future output. The UAE pumped 3.26 million b/d of oil in March, while Iraq produced 4.32 million b/d, according to new IEA figures, leaving the two countries a combined 790,000 b/d above their implied targets for the month. The recent startup of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field expansion has also put it 390,000 b/d above its quota, the IEA said. As global oil prices tumbled, observed crude, NGL and feedstock inventories surged by roughly 40 million barrels and crude oil on the water jumped, the IEA reported, expecting further inventory gains in March. The rise in crude stocks came despite persistent backwardation for WTI and Brent through March, which priced front-month supply at a premium of roughly 50 cents/b to the month ahead. Storage draws were partly offset by a roughly 20 million barrel draw on oil product reserves, however, and global inventories continue to sit at the bottom of the previous five-year average.
JP Morgan cuts oil price forecasts on weak demand, higher output (Reuters) - JP Morgan on Monday lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand. The bank cut its 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 per barrel from $73 and its 2026 target to $58 from $61. It lowered the 2025 WTI price outlook to $62 per barrel from $69 and the 2026 view to $53 from $57. Brent crude futures were trading around $65 on Monday, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were around $61. [O/R] JP Morgan now expects global oil demand to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (mbd), with growth averaging only 0.3 mbd in the third quarter. "Higher production volumes from the OPEC+ alliance indicate a shift in the reaction function, which, when combined with weaker demand, will push balances into a large surplus and drive Brent down below $60 towards year-end," the bank said in a note. The oil market remains under pressure from an "80% probability of a mild recession coupled with an additional 1 mbd of increased" production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), JP Morgan analysts said. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts, JP Morgan said. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs reduced its Brent and WTI oil forecasts for 2025 and 2026 on the expectation of higher OPEC+ supply and the risk of an escalating trade conflict will trigger a global recession, denting demand.
Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Outlook Once Again -- Goldman Sachs has reduced its outlook for oil prices for the third time since the start of April, now expecting Brent crude to average $63 this year and $58 in 2026. The bank sees WTI at an average of $59 per barrel this year, falling to $55 in 2026, Reuters reported. The update follows one from April 4, when Goldman slashed its 2025 outlook for Brent and WTI by 5.5% and 4.3%, respectively, to $69 for a barrel of Brent crude and $66 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Then, on April 6, the bank cut its 2026 outlook for the oil benchmarks.“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman analysts said in their note.In its latest price update, Goldman predicted weaker-than-expected oil demand growth this year, at a modest 300,000 barrels daily this year. Goldman also revised down its demand forecast for the end of 2026, slashing the figure by 900,000 bpd for the final quarter, Reuters also noted in its report.Prices could fall a lot further, too, Goldman said, in case OPEC+ decided to remove the production caps it adopted in 2023. In such a scenario prices could fall to the $40s for Brent crude, the bank’s analysts estimated, adding the global benchmark could even fall below $40 per barrel “in an extreme combined scenario.”“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” Godman said in one of its earlier April notes, referring to the most expected outcome of the tariff war that President Trump started in early April. However, there is a good chance the war will end before it start hitting the global economy, eliminating the biggest risks as defined by Goldman Sachs and thus reducing the danger of a more serious oil price decline.
Oil rise on tariff exemptions and rebound in Chinese imports --Oil prices rose 1% on Monday after U.S. exclusions on some tariffs and Chinese data showing a sharp rebound in crude imports in March, but gains were capped by concerns that the trade war between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose by 62 cents, or 1%, to $65.38 a barrel by 0955 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was also up 62 cents, or 1%, at $62.12. "The news about the exemptions on tariffs has helped lift sentiment across markets," "But there is still a lot of fragility; you have policy risk around this erratic approach to trade that continues to weigh on markets." Late on Friday U.S. President Donald Trump's administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses. Trump said on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week. China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries. However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world's two largest economies has intensified. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026. It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks. The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has also flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply. As companies prepare for a possible decline in demand, the U.S. oil and natural gas rig count dropped for a third consecutive week last week, according to oil services company Baker Hughes. Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump's plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme. Both countries held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week, officials said over the weekend. "This may help remove some of the sanction risk affecting the oil market, particularly if talks keep on moving in the right direction," ING analysts said in a note.
Oil Market Trades Sideways Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Mixed Signals -- The oil market continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range as the market weighed the news of exemptions for some electronic goods from U.S. tariffs and data showing an increase in China’s crude imports in March against concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth. The market was supported early in the session by the news that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration late Friday granted exclusions from tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported mostly from China. It was the latest in a series of announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back. The market was also supported by the news that China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months. The oil market traded sideways and posted a high of $62.68 early in the morning. However, the market gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $60.59 as the market remained concerned over the impact of the tariffs on the global economy. The market’s gains were also limited by the continuing uncertainty over tariffs as President Trump said there were no tariff exemptions announced on Friday. The market later retraced some of its losses ahead of the close, with the May WTI contract settling up 3 cents at $61.53 and the June Brent contract settling up 12 cents at $64.88. The product markets ended the session, up 2.64 cents at $2.0917 and the RB market settling up 2.31 cents at $2.0222. According to a list of items published by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection late Friday, the United States excluded certain electronics like smartphones and computers from President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. CBP listed some 20 products, also including semiconductor-based transducers, solid-state storage devices and flat panel displays. However, on Sunday, President Trump said “There was no tariff ‘exemption’ announced on Friday.” President Trump and his economic advisers stressed over the weekend that any reprieve would be temporary, with specific tariffs to be imposed on goods put under a new national security classification. White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, said U.S. and European Union negotiators have met numerous times and are making enormous progress, as EU negotiators were in Washington for talks on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. He also stated that the Trump administration is close to finalizing a trade deal with more than 10 countries. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.46 million bpd of capacity in the week ending April 18th, increasing available refining capacity by 286,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 940,000 bpd in the week ending April 25th. The Keystone oil pipeline, with a capacity to carry 600,000 bpd of oil from Alberta, Canada to the U.S., is expected to resume service by Tuesday, April 15th. OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast for the first time since December, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the U.S. In a monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand would increase by 1.30 million bpd in 2025 and by 1.28 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast. In the report, OPEC lowered its world economic growth forecast this year to 3.0% from 3.1% and reduced next year’s to 3.1% from 3.2%. OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd due in part to reductions by Nigeria and Iraq.
Oil Steadies as Progress on Iran Talks Undercuts Tariff Reprieve - Oil held steady as traders weighed the latest US moves in the global trade war, as well as the prospect of looser restrictions on Iranian crude. West Texas Intermediate settled little changed near $61.50 a barrel, and Brent held below $65. While equities rallied after US President Donald Trump paused import duties on some electronics, fresh data revealing that American consumers see higher inflation in the year ahead weighed on oil futures. The US and Iran met on Saturday for nuclear talks that both sides described as constructive, raising the possibility of higher oil volumes from the OPEC member. Weekend talks in Oman marked the first top-level engagement since 2022 and signaled a renewed effort to resolve a years-long standoff over the country’s nuclear program. Both sides agreed to meet again. On the demand side, traders are grappling with a rapidly evolving outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries slashed its projections for annual consumption growth by about 100,000 barrels a day, following a larger cut by the US Energy Information Administration. More banks also reduced their price forecasts, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. now seeing Brent at $66 this year. Crude has been dragged down in April as the trade war — especially the confrontation between the US and China — stokes fears of a global recession that would hurt energy demand. A surprise OPEC+ decision to bring back shuttered output more quickly than expected has added to the bearishness. “While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, estimating a glut of 800,000 barrels a day this year. Brent is expected to average $63 over the rest of 2025, they said. Oil’s losses this month have formed part of an intense global market reaction to the evolving trade war, with most commodities and equities selling off. Investors pulling out of crude and fuel markets triggered a $2 billion net outflow in the week ending April 11, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Tracey Allen wrote in a note to clients. There have also been unusual declines in the US dollar and Treasuries, assets that typically function as havens during periods of stress. WTI for May delivery gained 3 cents to settle at $61.53 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement edged up 12 cents to settle at $64.88 a barrel.
Oil Prices Rise, Supported by New Tariff Exemptions... Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday, supported by new tariff exemptions announced by U.S. President Donald Trump and a rebound in Chinese crude oil imports. According to Bloomberg economic news agency, Brent crude futures rose by 27 cents, or 0.42%, to reach $65.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 26 cents, also 0.42%, to reach $61.79 per barrel.
Oil prices dip after IEA cuts demand outlook -Oil prices inched down on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency followed OPEC in slashing its oil demand forecast, though price falls were limited by U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion of some new tariff exemptions.Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.32%, to close at $64.67 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.33%, to settle at $61.33 a barrel. Vacillating U.S. trade policies have created uncertainty for global oil markets and prompted OPEC on Monday to lower its demand outlook.The IEA also cut its forecasts on Tuesday for global oil demand growth to 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year from 1.03 million bpd - and to 690,000 bpd next year, citing escalating trade tensions.Meanwhile, Swiss bank UBS cut its price forecast for Brent by $12 a barrel to $68 a barrel on Tuesday."Should the trade war further escalate, our downside risk scenario case — i.e., a deeper U.S. recession and a hard landing in China — could see Brent trading at $40-60/bbl over the coming months," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.BNP Paribas lowered its average price expectation for this year and next to $58 a barrel from $65.In comments that helped to support prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump's plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.Data on Monday showed that China's crude oil imports in March were up nearly 5% from a year earlier as arrivals of Iranian oil surged. Risk assets such as equities and oil also got some support after Trump said he was considering a modification to the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto imports from Mexico and other places.
Oil prices slip as IEA cuts demand forecast - Oil prices dipped during Wednesday's Asian session, with investors weighing the escalating United States-China tariff dispute and its potential drag on economic growth and global energy demand. By 3:30 pm AEST (5:30 am GMT), Brent crude futures slipped by $0.29, or 0.5%, to $64.38 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by $0.31, also 0.5%, to $60.44 per barrel.The drop in oil prices followed the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest outlook, which slashed its global demand growth forecast for 2025. The agency now expects demand to rise by only 730,000 barrels per day - its slowest pace in five years - citing trade tensions and a weakening macroeconomic backdrop. The IEA attributed the lower demand forecast to slowing economic activity, particularly in the U.S. and China, which are at the centre of the ongoing trade war. “A growing sense of a global economic downturn is also weighing on sentiment,” noted ANZ analysts. “The IEA also expects consumption growth to be even slower in 2026 at 690kb/d due to a fragile macroeconomic environment. It also said the rising use of EVs is impacting demand. "This comes after the Energy Information Administration and OPEC both reduced their forecasts for demand this year.”Rising supply from OPEC+, which includes Russia and other allied producers, is also contributing to the bearish sentiment in oil markets. Meanwhile, weekly inventory data added further complexity. According to the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended April 11, well above market expectations of a 1.68 million barrel draw.
WTI Extends Gains As Cushing Hub Stocks Hit Lowest For Time Of Year Since 2008 -Oil prices are higher this morning on the prospect of US-China trade talks (and after better than expected China macro data last night and an implicit suggestion that Beijing will do 'whatever it takes' to maintain the illusion of 5% growth). Prices shrugged off the surprise build in crude stocks reported by API last night.Elsewhere, Iran said it won’t be drawn into negotiations with the US over its ability to enrich uranium, reducing the potential of looser restrictions on Iranian crude.“A bit of risk-on followed” the news of China’s openness to talks, said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. “Overall, the market seems to be settling into a bit of a wait-and-see mode.”Will the official data have any more bearing on sentiment than the API build? API:
- Crude +2.40mm (-1.68mm exp)
- Cushing -349k
- Gasoline -3.0mm
- Distillates -3.2mm
DOE:
- Crude +515k (-1.68mm exp)
- Cushing -654k
- Gasoline -1.96mm
- Distillates -1.85mm
Crude stocks rose for the 3rd straight week (but only adding 515k barrels - a lot less than the 2.4mm build reported by API) while Gasoline stocks fell for the 7th straight week... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Even with the 299k barrels addition to the SPR, this was a small crude build...Total gasoline stocks are at their lowest since Dec 2024...Stocks at the all important Cushing Hub fell to their lowest for this time of year since 2008...
Crude Oil Gains 2% on Hopes of Tariff War Truce -Crude oil edged more than 2% higher on Wednesday, driven primarily by hopes that tensions will ease in the U.S.-China trade conflict and U.S. inventory data. At 1:28 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading up 2.09% at $66.02, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading up 2.12% at $62.63.A weaker U.S. dollar, bullish inventory data, and renewed hopes for easing U.S.-China trade tensions are all boosting crude today, particularly following a Bloomberg report suggesting China may be open to trade talks—pending specific actions from the Trump administration. China reportedly expects the U.S. to moderate critical rhetoric from cabinet members as a precondition for negotiations.Energy markets also responded to today’s bullish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, which showed an increase of 500,000 barrels during the week ending April 11.Crude oil prices were trading up prior to the crude data release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration after a sharp dip over the last couple of weeks in the wake of the tariff war that has analysts worrying about recession. Also on Wednesday, the EIA said in itsAnnual Energy Outlook 2025 that U.S. crude oil production was set to peak at around 14 million barrels per day in 2027, where it will remain until the early 2030s, after which point it will decline faster through 2050. Despite bullish inventory and mere hopes that the trade war will not escalate, global economic concerns look set to put significant limitations on how far crude could climb in this climate. The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its 2025 global trade growth forecast from +3.0% to -0.2%, citing escalating tariff risks. If the U.S. proceeds with reciprocal tariffs, global trade could shrink by as much as -1.5%, raising fears of reduced energy demand.
News of Further Sanctions Targeting Iran's Oil Exports - The crude market on Wednesday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the impact of the U.S.-China trade war against the possibility of a de-escalation, reports of OPEC+ countries updating their output compensation plans and the news of further sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports. The market was pressured in overnight trading and posted a low of $60.44 after the IEA on Tuesday said global oil demand this year is expected to grow at its slowest level in five years. However, the market reversed course and rallied higher to a high of $62.71 on the possibility of trade talks between China and the U.S., amid reports that China wants more respect from the Trump administration before it can agree to talks. The market was further supported on reports that OPEC+ members pledged to make further oil output cuts to compensate for producing over their agreed quotas as well on the news that the U.S. imposed sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, including against a China-based “teapot refinery”. Most of the market’s move higher was ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report, which showed a small build of 515,000 barrels in crude stocks. The crude market posted a high of $62.84 before it erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The May WTI contract ended the session up $1.14 at $62.47 and rallied higher in the post settlement period to a new high of $62.98. The June Brent contract ended the day up $1.18 at $65.85. The product markets ended higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.7 cents at $2.1154 and the RB market settling up 19 points at $2.0434. The United States issued new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, including against a China-based “teapot refinery”. The Treasury said it imposed sanctions on a China-based independent “teapot” refinery it accused of playing a role in purchasing more than $1 billion worth of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. Treasury Department, the United States also imposed new sanctions targeting shipping companies under its Iran-related sanctions program.OPEC has received updated oil output compensation plans from seven countries that have exceeded voluntary production quotas within the OPEC+ group. The OPEC secretariat said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman will cut production by 222,000 bpd in April, 378,000 bpd in May and 431,000 bpd in June. Monthly cuts would then range between 196,000 bpd and 501,000 bpd over the following 12 months, ending in June 2026. This is up from between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd previously. Iraq and Kazakhstan are planning the largest cuts at 1.934 million bpd and 1.299 million bpd cumulatively. The UAE, which has also overproduced in recent months, will compensate by just 386,000 bpd cumulatively through June 2026 after agreeing to a 300,000 bpd production baseline increase in April. OPEC+ data shows that the total backlog of overdue compensation cuts has increased by almost 9% to about 139 million barrels.South Bow restarted the Keystone pipeline system at a reduced operating pressure after approval from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. The Keystone pipeline was shut down last week after an oil spill near Fort Ransom, North Dakota.The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers granted Enbridge’s proposed tunnel for its Line 5 pipeline national energy emergency status, fast-tracking a key federal permitting process.
Global Oil Prices Continue to Rise Amid Supply Cut Expectation -Oil prices continued their upward trend on Thursday, supported by expectations of tighter supplies as some OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members pledged deeper production cuts to offset previous overproduction beyond agreed quotas. According to the economic news agency Bloomberg, Brent crude futures rose by 34 cents to reach $66.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 44 cents to reach $62.91 per barrel. Supply concerns intensified after OPEC announced on Wednesday that it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries to implement further production cuts to compensate for previously exceeding their quotas.
Oil prices climb to two-week highs on fresh Iran sanctions - Oil prices rose Thursday, heading for weekly gains on supply disruption concerns after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in June rose 1.3% to $66.69 per barrel, whileWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1.5% to $63.40 per barrel.Both contracts are on track for their first weekly rise in three, hitting two-week highs after a recent decline in prices. Thursday is the last settlement day of the week ahead of the Easter holidays.President Donald Trump’s administration has escalated its sanctions against Iran’s oil sector by targeting Chinese entities, including a "teapot" refinery in Shandong province.A "teapot refinery" is an industry nickname for small, independent oil refineries, primarily found in China.These measures are part of Trump’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero and curbing its nuclear ambitions. The sanctions also target several companies and vessels facilitating Iranian oil transport through a so-called "shadow fleet."The U.S. actions coincide with ongoing nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with recent talks held in Oman and upcoming discussions scheduled for Rome.Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday it had received updated plans for Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make further output cuts to compensate for pumping above quotas.Meanwhile, sentiment improved earlier Wednesday after Bloomberg reported that China is open to restarting trade talks with the Trump administration, but is seeking more respect from Washington, while talks between Japan and the U.S. were seen proceeding smoothly. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that crude oil inventories increased by 515,000 barrels for the week ending April 11, bringing total stockpiles to 442.9 million barrels. This marked the third consecutive weekly build, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 507,000-barrel rise.In contrast, gasoline inventories declined by 2 million barrels to 234 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.9 million barrels to 109.2 million barrels—the lowest since November 2023. While the increase in crude stockpiles signals a potential buildup in supply, stronger-than-expected draws in gasoline and distillate inventories point to resilient demand for refined products.
Oil posts weekly gain on trade deal hopes, new Iran sanctions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than 3% higher on Thursday, supported by hopes for a trade deal between the United States and the European Union and new U.S. sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports, which continued to elevate supply concerns. Brent crude futures settled $2.11, or 3.2%, higher to $67.96 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.21, or 3.54%, at $64.68 a barrel.For the week, both Brent and WTI gained about 5%, their first weekly gain in three weeks. Thursday is the last settlement day of the week ahead of the Easter holidays and trade volumes were thin.U.S. President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met in Washington and expressed optimism about resolving trade tensions that have strained U.S.-European relations."We're going to have very little problem making a deal with Europe or anybody else, because we have something that everybody wants," Trump said.Reaching a trade deal with the EU could potentially limit oil demand destruction from Trump's tariffs, Sanctions issued by Trump's administration on Wednesday, including against a China-based "teapot" oil refinery, ramp up pressure on Tehran amid talks on the country's nuclear programme. "Teapot" is an industry term for small, independent and simple oil refiners. "These are far-ranging sanctions, focusing on the Chinese teapot refineries," . "It's a potential supply loss to the market."Washington also issued additional sanctions on several companies and vessels it said were responsible for facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China as part of Iran's shadow fleet."The U.S. continues to aggressively sanction Iran and impose sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil. OPEC+ has also provided updates and reassurance to the market, stating that they remain in control with flexibility to cut production if needed," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday it had received updated plans for Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make further output cuts to compensate for pumping above quotas.However, OPEC, the International Energy Agency and several banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, cut forecasts on oil prices and demand growth this week as U.S. tariffs and retaliation from other countries threw global trade into disarray.
U.S. Strike on Yemen Oil Port Kills 58, Houthis Say -At least 58 people were killed in U.S. air strikes on a fuel port in Yemen, Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV said on Friday, in what could be the deadliest U.S. attack in Yemen since U.S. President Donald Trump ordered strikes on targets of the Iran-aligned rebels a month ago. In the middle of March, the U.S. began air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, with the U.S. Department of Defense stating the attacks would continue until the Houthis stop attacking ships traversing the Red Sea. The U.S. Central Command said on Thursday about the attack that “The Iran-backed Houthis use fuel to sustain their military operations, as a weapon of control, and to benefit economically from embezzling the profits from the import.” “This fuel should be legitimately supplied to the people of Yemen. Despite the Foreign Terrorist Designation that went into effect on 05 April, ships have continued to supply fuel via the port of Ras Isa. Profits from these illegal sales are directly funding and sustaining Houthi terrorist efforts.” The Central Command also noted that “US forces took action to eliminate this source of fuel for the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists and deprive them of illegal revenue that has funded Houthi efforts to terrorize the entire region for over 10 years.” The U.S. military said that the objective of the latest strikes was to reduce the economic source of power of the Houthis. “This strike was not intended to harm the people of Yemen, who rightly want to throw off the yoke of Houthi subjugation and live peacefully.” “The Houthis, their Iranian masters, and those who knowingly aid and abet their terrorist actions should be put on notice that the world will not accept illicit smuggling of fuel and war material to a terrorist organization,” the Central Command said. The Houthis responded in a statement that “We affirm that the targeting of the Ras Isa oil port is a full-fledged war crime, as the port is a civilian facility and not a military one.”
Saudi Defense Minister Visits Iran, Meets With Khamenei - -Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman arrived in Iran on Thursday, marking the highest-level Saudi visit to the country in decades.Prince Khalid’s visit comes about two years after Riyadh and Tehran normalized relations under a China-brokered deal in 2023. The visit signals that Saudi Arabia supports the negotiations between the US and Iran and opposes a potential US-Israeli attack on Iran.While in Tehran, Prince Khalid met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and delivered a letter from his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz. “We believe that relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia will be beneficial for both countries, and that the two nations can complement each other,” Khamenei said during the meeting, according to his website.Khamenei said the improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have faced opposition from “enemies” in the region. “We must overcome these hostile motives, and we are prepared in this regard,” he said. “It is far better for brothers in the region to cooperate with and assist each other than to depend on others.”
US and Iran To Hold More Negotiations After 'Constructive' First Round - The US and Iran are set to hold another round of negotiations on Saturday, April 19, after indirect talks held over the weekend appeared to go well.Following the negotiations in Oman, both the US and Iran described the engagement as “constructive.” The US side was led by President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian delegation was headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The negotiations lasted about two and a half hours and were mostly held indirectly, with Omani mediators passing messages between each delegation. However, at the end of the talks, Witkoff and Araghchi spoke directly for just a few minutes.“The discussions were very positive and constructive, and the United States deeply thanks the Sultanate of Oman for its support of this initiative,” the White House said in a statement after the negotiations.The White House said that Witkoff’s “direct communication today was a step forward in achieving a mutually beneficial outcome.”According to Axios, the next round of talks will be held in Rome, and the US and Iranian delegations could hold negotiations in the same room with Omani mediators present.Aragchi said in a post on X that the talks were “constructive and promising” and conducted “in an atmosphere of mutual respect.” He added that “both sides decided to continue the process in a matter of days.”The fact that there appears to be progress signals that the US is focusing on seeking a commitment from Iran not to weaponize its nuclear program, a pledge Tehran has said it has stuck to and is willing to reaffirm.Just a few weeks before the negotiations, US intelligence agencies said in their annual threat assessment that there’s no evidence Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Despite that conclusion, President Trump has been threatening to bomb Iran if a deal isn’t reached.Iran hawks in the US and Israel have been demanding a deal that would involve the complete dismantlement of Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which is a non-starter for negotiations with Tehran. Iran has also rejected the idea of a deal that would place limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for its allies in the region. Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, has said a narrow deal focused on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from the US has a real chance of success.
Trump Suggests Iran Slow-Walking Talks, Repeats Threat of Military Action - President Trump on Monday suggested that Iran was slow-walking talks with the US and repeated his threat of military action if a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program isn’t reached.The US and Iran held indirect negotiations in Oman over the weekend and are set to hold another round in Rome this coming Saturday. “Iran wants to deal with us, but they don’t know how. They really don’t know how. We had a meeting with them on Saturday. We have another meeting scheduled next Saturday, I said, ‘that’s a long time,’ so I think they might be tapping us along,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office while meeting with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele.Trump said that Iran has to “get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon, they cannot have a nuclear weapon.” Iran has made clear that it’s willing toreaffirm its pledge that it doesn’t seek nuclear weapons, and US intelligence agencies recently said in their annual threat assessment there’s no evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb or that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his 2003 fatwah that banned the production of weapons of mass destruction.Despite the conclusion from US intelligence agencies, Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iran if a deal isn’t reached on its nuclear program. “If we have to do something very harsh, we’ll do it,” he said. “And I’m not doing it for us. I’m doing it for the world. These are radicalized people, and they cannot have a nuclear weapon.” When asked if the options include a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the president said, “Of course.”
The crux of negotiations: Are Iran’s ballistic missiles more dangerous than its nuclear programme? – Middle East Monitor - What do Washington and Tehran want in the negotiations? Trump wants to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon. Tehran wants the negotiations to be limited to discussing the nuclear issue alone, but it is clear from the statements of the US President and his aides that Washington seeks to expand the scope of the negotiations to include, in addition to the nuclear issue, Iran’s policy in the region, particularly its support for the Houthis in Yemen and its programme to build and develop long-range ballistic missiles. While Tel Aviv deliberately ignores the danger of the ballistic missiles it suffered during Iran’s response to its recent aggression, its strategic experts realise that the crux of the negotiations is Iran’s programme to build and develop ballistic missiles, which are more dangerous to Israel (and perhaps to the US, as well) than its nuclear programme. Tehran’s (presumed) success in developing a nuclear bomb would not prompt it to use it in war for three significant reasons: First, because Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued a fatwa prohibiting its manufacture or use, as the extreme deadliness and indiscriminate destruction it would cause are morally and religiously prohibited. Arabs, both Muslims and Christians, who live in the Zionist entity that has existed since 1948, as well as in the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, would certainly suffer enormous human and physical damage if nuclear weapons were used. Second, because the use of nuclear weapons would cause immense harm and damage to both warring parties using them, greatly limiting its legitimacy and effectiveness. Third, because the US is far more powerful when it comes to nuclear weapons than Iran, and it would cause Iran immeasurable damage compared to the US. What further need or benefit would there be for using this deadly weapon? Compared to nuclear weapons, long-range ballistic missiles appear to be more effective, more destructive, and even more dangerous to Israel than nuclear weapons. Why? Because the occupying entity also will not use nuclear weapons for the reasons mentioned above. Furthermore, it is inconceivable that the US would use them on its behalf, knowing that Iran could use its ballistic missiles to retaliate forcefully, causing massive human and material damage to all US military bases in West Asia, not to mention the devastating damage that would be inflicted on the Zionist entity itself. Despite the positive impressions expressed by both the Iranian and American sides after their first meeting last Saturday to determine the course of negotiations, most observers in Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington tend to doubt the success of the ongoing negotiations in Oman. They believe they will be prolonged for several reasons, not least of which is the growing negative reactions to the tariff war launched by Trump against most exporting countries, and his need to contain the reactions in order to reduce its negative repercussions on the US and the rest of the world. However, another group of observers have not ruled out the possibility of Washington and Tehran possibly reaching a compromise involving freezing the Iranian nuclear programme, particularly its high-percentage enrichment of uranium, necessary for the manufacture of nuclear bombs. This would satisfy Iran, as this compromise would keep its peaceful nuclear programme unrestricted, which is its primary concern. It also would not affect its right to develop its long-range ballistic missile programme and would lift the unjust US economic sanctions imposed on it. This compromise would also satisfy the US, as its main concern is that Iran never possesses nuclear weapons, by Iran accepting strict monitoring and control mechanisms. It would also allow it to attract Iranian investment in the US economy. As for Israel, whose primary concern is dismantling the entire Iranian nuclear infrastructure, this compromise would leave it empty-handed. A question remains for the future: What if the US-Iranian negotiations in Oman fail, and what repercussions will it have on the Arab-Israeli conflict?
Iran's Khamenei Says Talks With US Went 'Well' But May Lead Nowhere - Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tuesday that Tehran’s negotiations with the US were off to a good start but warned they might not go anywhere, stressing his lack of trust in the US. According to Iran’s PressTV, Khamenei said the negotiations held in Oman over the weekend were “implemented well in their initial steps” but added that Tehran is “very skeptical” of the US side.“The negotiations may or may not yield results. We are neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about them. Of course, we are very skeptical of the other party, but confident in our own capabilities,” he said.Khamenei said that Iran would continue to work to offset the impact of sanctions. “The removal of the sanctions is not in our hands, but neutralizing them is; there are many ways and [there is] great domestic capacity to do that. If this objective is achieved, the country will become impervious to sanctions,” he said. While he offered a mixed reaction, Khamenei’s comments made clear that he supports the government of Masoud Pezeshkian to continue the negotiations, which were mostly held indirectly, although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Steve Witkoff spoke to each other briefly.Another round of negotiations is set to be held this Saturday. Some reports say they will be held in Rome, while Iran insists they will be held again in Oman.President Trump has continued to threaten military action if a deal isn’t reached on Iran’s nuclear program even though US intelligence agencies recently said in their annual threat assessment that there’s no evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb or that Khamenei has reversed his 2003 fatwah that banned the production of weapons of mass destruction.
Trump envoy backtracks on remarks limiting Iran’s nuclear program--Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s point person on talks with Iran, clarified earlier remarks on Tuesday saying the White House could tolerate Iran having a civilian nuclear program, saying it wants Tehran to eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weapons program. “Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East — meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program,” Witkoff wrote on the social media site X. “It is imperative for the world that we create a tough, fair deal that will endure, and that is what President Trump has asked me to do.” Witkoff’s remarks came after he appeared Monday night on FOX News Channel’s “Hannity” where he said the U.S. would not tolerate Iran enriching uranium beyond 3.67 percent – triggering backlash from Iran hawks that the Trump administration was reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era nuclear deal that Trump exited in 2018. Witkoff participated in talks with Iranian officials in Oman on Saturday, the first major engagement between the Trump administration and Tehran over whether a deal could be reached that would see the U.S. trade sanctions relief on Iran over dismantling its nuclear weapons program.
Witkoff Says Iran Must 'Eliminate Its Nuclear Enrichment' Program - Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, said in a statement on Tuesday that Iran must “eliminate its nuclear enrichment” program, suggesting the Trump administration is hardening its position in negotiations with Tehran.Witkoff made the comments a day after appearing on Fox News and suggesting that the US wanted Iran to reduce its levels of nuclear enrichment to 3.67%, the enrichment level under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, which President Trump withdrew from in 2018. Iran currently enriches some uranium at 20% and 60%, still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade.Witkoff’s comments on Fox signaled that the US was not demanding the full dismantlement of Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which is believed to be a non-starter for Tehran. After strong backlash from Iran hawks, Witkoff appeared to reverse his stance in the statement he released on Tuesday.“A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal. Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East — meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program,” Witkoff said in a statement released by his office.“It is imperative for the world that we create a tough, fair deal that will endure, and that is what President Trump has asked me to do,” Witkoff added.Witkoff participated in the indirect negotiations between the US and Iran this past weekend and briefly spoke directly with the leader of the Iranian delegation, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. While both sides said the talks went well, and another round is scheduled for this Saturday, President Trump suggested on Monday that Iran was “tapping” the US and repeated his threat of military action if a deal isn’t reached. Trump has been threatening to bomb Iran over its nuclear program even though US intelligence agencies recently said in their annual threat assessment that there’s no evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb or that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his 2003 fatwah that banned the production of weapons of mass destruction. Aragchi has also made clear that Iran is willing to reaffirm its pledge that it doesn’t seek nuclear weapons and allay any concerns the US may have when it comes to weaponization.
Iran Warns US Against 'Moving the Goalposts' After Witkoff Statement on Enrichment - Iran on Wednesday warned the US against “moving the goalposts” after US envoy Steve Witkoff suggested the Trump administration was seeking a deal to eliminate Tehran’s civilian nuclear program. Witkoff said in a statement on Tuesday that any deal must “eliminate its nuclear enrichment” program. The statement came after he suggested the US would be happy with a deal that limited Iran’s nuclear enrichment to 3.67%, which drew backlash from Iran hawks. “Moving the goalposts constitutes a professional foul and an unfair act in football. In diplomacy, any such shifting (pushed by hawks who fail to grasp the logic/art of commonsensical deal-making) could simply risk any overtures falling apart,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei wrote on X. “It could be perceived as lack of seriousness, let alone good faith. We’re still in testing mode,” Baghaei added. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also responded to Witkoff’s comments, saying Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was non-negotiable. “Iran’s enrichment is a real, accepted matter. We are ready to build confidence in response to possible concerns, but the issue of enrichment is non-negotiable,” he said. Iran is currently enriching some uranium at 60% and 20%, which is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade. Tehran has made clear it’s willing to reduce enrichment levels, but eliminating its nuclear program altogether is a non-starter. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, which President Trump withdrew from in his first term, capped Iran’s enrichment levels at 3.67%. Trump has been threatening to bomb Iran over its nuclear program, even though US intelligence agencies recently said in their annual threat assessment that there’s no evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb or that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his 2003 fatwah that banned the production of weapons of mass destruction.
US, Iran set to enter next phase of nuclear talks for 'fair, enduring' deal The U.S. and Iran are set to enter the next phase of the nuclear talks to achieve an agreement that would guarantee that the country does not have nuclear weapons or remain under the constraint of sanctions, according to Oman. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, through the mediation of Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi “have agreed to enter into the next phase of their discussions that aim to seal a fair, enduring and binding deal which will ensure Iran completely free of nuclear weapons and sanctions, and maintaining its ability to develop peaceful nuclear energy.” “It is only in dialogue and clear communication that we will be able to achieve a mutually credible agreement and understanding for the benefit of all concerned regionally and internationally,” a spokesperson for Oman’s foreign ministry said in a Saturday statement. “It is also agreed that the next round will take place in Muscat in the next few days.” The second round of talks between the two sides took place in Rome and started around 11:30 a.m. local time, the U.S. official told The Hill on Saturday. “I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death — and I’d like to see that, that’s my first option,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei wrote Saturday in a post on social platform X that the Islamic Republic has “always demonstrated, with good faith and a sense of responsibility, its commitment to diplomacy as a civilized way to resolve issues, in full respect of the high interests of the Iranian nation.” “We are aware that it is not a smooth path but we take every step with open eyes, relying also on the past experiences,” Baghaei added.
Report: Trump Declined To Back Israeli Attack on Iran in Favor of Diplomacy - President Trump declined an Israeli plan to attack Iran with US support as soon as next month in favor of attempting diplomacy with Tehran over its civilian nuclear program, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.The report said Israel developed plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities that would have required significant US support. The initial Israeli plan would have involved a bombing campaign with Israeli commando raids on Iranian nuclear sites in hopes that American aircraft would be involved.The commando plan would have taken months to prepare, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was looking to attack Iran this May, so the plan shifted to a prolonged bombing campaign that would last over a week. The idea would be to destroy Iran’s air defenses and then start targeting nuclear facilities.Officials told the Times that Trump made the decision to hold off on the attack after months of internal debate within the administration. The rough consensus, at least for now, is that the US should hold off on the military option to pursue negotiations. The report said that Vice President JD Vance told the president that he had a unique opportunity to reach a deal with Iran, but he said that if the negotiations failed, Trump could then support the Israeli attack.
Trump Says He's 'Not in a Rush' To Attack Iran Because Tehran Wants Talks - On Thursday, President Trump said he was “not in a rush” to attack Iranwhen asked about a report from The New York Times that said he “waived off” an Israeli plan to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities that would require significant US support.“I wouldn’t say waived off. I’m not in a rush to do it because I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death, and I’d like to see that. That’s my first option,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.“If there’s a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran, and I think Iran is wanting to talk. I hope they’re wanting to talk, it’s going to be very good for them if they do. I’d like to see Iran thrive in the future,” the president added.The Times report said that Trump declined to attack Iran with Israel in favor of pursuing diplomacy to reach a deal related to Iran’s nuclear program. The president has been threatening to bomb Iran over its nuclear program, even though US intelligence agencies have recently reaffirmed in their annual threat assessment that there’s no evidence Iran is building a nuclear weapon.“I don’t want to do anything that’s going to hurt anybody. I really don’t, but Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon … it’s really simple,” Trump said.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also asked about that report and didn’t deny that Israel drew up plans to attack Iran. His office said in a statement that Netanyahu has led a “global campaign against Iran’s nuclear program.”“The prime minister has led countless actions, overt and covert, in the campaign against Iran’s nuclear program — and only because of [those actions], Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in its arsenal today,” Netanyahu’s office added. While the statement claims that pressure from Israel is what has prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Israeli covert attacks have actually led to increases in Iran’s nuclear activity.
Saudi Arabia To Pay Off Syria's World Bank Debt --Saudi Arabia is planning to pay off the debts owed by Syria to the World Bank, according to three sources cited by Reuters on Monday. "Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's debts to the World Bank … paving the way for the approval of millions of dollars in grants for reconstruction and to support the country's paralyzed public sector," the sources said. "Damascus is short of foreign currency and a previous plan to pay off the debts using assets frozen abroad did not materialize … World Bank officials have discussed providing financing to help reconstruct the country's power grid, heavily damaged by years of war, and also to support public sector pay," they added. A Saudi Finance Ministry source told the outlet that "We do not comment on speculation, but make announcements, if and when they become official."Reuters had reported over the weekend that Syria will be sending a delegation to the US for the annual World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings in Washington later in April. The extremist-led Syrian administration of Ahmad al-Sharaa, which assumed power after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s government, has been hoping to secure some relief from the heavy sanctions imposed on Damascus over the years. The UK and a number of EU countries have lifted some of their sanctions on Syria, and Washington provided a six-month exemption from some sanctions in January. The US has also given Syria a list of demands that it wants the Syrian government to fulfill in exchange for partial relief from sanctions, reports said late last month.These include the destruction of any chemical weapons, cooperation on "counter-terrorism," and ensuring foreign fighters are not granted top positions. Several militants who fought with Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked organizations against the former government have been incorporated into the army and given posts of command. Syrian government forces killed over 1,500 Alawites in a series of bloody sectarian massacres early last month. Tens of thousands have been displaced and have fled to Lebanon.
Israel Bombs Christian-Run Hospital in Gaza City on Palm Sunday - Early Sunday morning, the Israeli military bombed the al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza City, putting the medical facility out of service.According to Middle East Eye, Gaza’s Civil Defense said the bombing caused “the destruction of the surgery building and the oxygen generation station for the intensive care units.” The strike damaged other buildings, includingthe adjoining St. Phillip’s Church.The Civil Defense said the strike hit the hospital “minutes” after the Israeli military ordered the hospital to be evacuated. Eyewitnesses told MEE that they only had 18 minutes to leave the hospital. At least three patients, including a child with head injuries, died as a result of the forced evacuation. The Israeli military took credit for the attack and claimed it targeted a Hamas “command and control center” but offered no evidence.The attack on the hospital, which was founded in 1882, comes amid severe shortages of medical supplies due to the total Israeli blockade on all goods entering Gaza, which has been imposed since March 2. Hospitals have been overwhelmed since Israel fully restarted its genocidal war on March 18.The Baptist Hospital is managed by the Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, which strongly condemned the attack and noted that it occurred on Palm Sunday, the start of the Christian Holy Week that ends on Easter Sunday.
Israeli Defense Minister Says No Humanitarian Aid Will Enter Gaza, Vows Indefinite Occupation - On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that no humanitarian aid will enter Gaza and vowed that the IDF will occupy the territory it has captured in Gaza indefinitely.Since March 2, Israel has imposed a total blockade on aid and all other goods entering Gaza, which constitutes collective punishment of the entire civilian population. Katz said that the blockade was one of Israel’s main “pressure tools” against Hamas.“Israel’s policy is clear: no humanitarian aid will be allowed into Gaza, and preventing humanitarian aid to Gaza is one of the central pressure tools that stops Hamas from using this means against the population,” Katz said in a post on X.“No one, under the current reality, is going to allow any humanitarian aid into Gaza, and no preparations are being made to allow any aid of this kind,” Katz added.Katz’s comments were meant to clarify an earlier statement where he suggested Israel could allow the distribution of aid “through civilian companies.” In that statement, he also said IDF troops would not leave the territory they’ve captured since Israel restarted its genocidal war on March 18.“The IDF will remain in the security zones as a buffer between the enemy and the communities in any temporary or permanent reality in Gaza—similar to Lebanon and Syria,” Katz said. “To date, hundreds of thousands of residents have been evacuated, and dozens of percent of the territory have been incorporated into the security zones.”He added that “in parallel” to the Israeli occupation of territory in Gaza, the “plan for the voluntary relocation of Gaza residents is being advanced,” referring to the goal of ethnic cleansing.
Israeli Bombs Multiple Tent Camps in Gaza, Killing Dozens - Overnight Israeli strikes on Gaza hit multiple tent camps sheltering displaced Palestinians, killing dozens, Gaza’s Civil Defense agency has said.One attack hit tents in al-Mawasi, a tent camp in southern Gaza that Israel had declared a so-called “humanitarian zone” but continues to bomb.“At least 16 martyrs [were killed], most of them women and children, and 23 others were wounded following a direct strike by two Israeli missiles on several tents housing displaced families in the al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis,” Mahmoud Bassal, spokesman for the Civil Defense, told AFP.Another seven Palestinians were killed by an Israeli strike on tents in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza that was the scene of large anti-Hamas protests on Wednesday. Two other Palestinians, a father and his son, were killed by an Israeli strike on another part of al-Mawasi. So far, there’s been no comment from the Israeli military about the attacks.Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Thursday that at least 39 Palestinians were killed, and one body was recovered from the rubble over the previous 24-hour period. Another 73 Palestinians were wounded by Israeli attacks.The Health Ministry’s numbers account for dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry said.
"I Want A Death That The World Will Hear" — Journalist Assassinated By Israel For Telling The Truth - Caitlin Johnstone - - Israel assassinated a photojournalist in Gaza in an airstrike targeting her family’s home on Wednesday, the day after it was announced that a documentary she appears in would premier in Cannes next month. Her name was Fatima Hassouna. Nine members of her family were also reportedly killed in the bombing. She was going to get married in a few days. The documentary is titled Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, and it’s about Israel’s crimes in Gaza. In an Instagram post from August of last year, Hassouna wrote the following:“If I die, I want a loud death. I don’t want to be just breaking news, or a number in a group; I want a death that the world will hear, an impact that will remain through time, and a timeless image that cannot be buried by time or place.” Hassouna said she viewed her camera as a weapon to change the world and defend her family, making the following statements in a video shared by Middle East Eye: “As Fatima, I believe that the image and the camera are weapons. So I consider my camera to be my rifle. So many times, in so many situations, I tell my friends, Come and see, it’s not bullets that we load into a rifle. Okay, I’m going to put a memory card into the camera. This is the camera’s bullet, the memory card. It changes the world and defends me. It shows the world what is happening to me and what’s happening to others. So I used to consider this my weapon, that I defend myself with it. And so that my family won’t be forgotten. And so I can document people’s stories, so that my family’s stories too don’t just vanish into thin air.” Israel saw Hassouna’s camera as a weapon too, apparently. As Ryan Grim observed on Twitter:“For this to have been a deliberate act — which it plainly was — consider what that means. A person within the IDF saw the news that Fatma’s film was accepted into Cannes. He/she/they then proposed assassinating her. Other people reviewed the suggestion and approved it. Then other people carried it out.” Israel has been murdering a record-shattering number of journalists in Gaza while simultaneously blocking any foreign press from accessing the enclave because Israel views journalists as its enemy. And Israel views journalists as its enemy because Israel is the enemy of truth. That’s why the light of journalism is being aggressively snuffed out in Gaza while Israel massively increases its propaganda budget to sway public opinion. It’s why journalists like Fatima Hassouna are being assassinated while the western propaganda services known as the mainstream press commit journalistic malpractice to hide the truth of Israel’s crimes. It’s why western journalists are banned from Gaza while western institutions are silencing, deporting, firing and marginalizing those who speak out about Israel’s criminality. Israel and truth cannot coexist. Israel’s enemies know this, and Israel knows this. That’s why Israel’s primary weapons are bombs, bullets, propaganda, censorship, and obstruction, while the main weapon of Israel’s enemies is the camera. Fatima Hassouna’s death has indeed been heard. All these loud noises are snapping more and more eyes open from their slumber.
Israel demolishes statue of Christian saint in southern Lebanon on Palm Sunday – The Israeli occupation army demolished a statue of Saint George in the town of Yaroun, in the Nabatieh Governorate in southern Lebanon, as Christians marked Palm Sunday, according to Lebanese media. The Lebanese National News Agency (NNA) shared a video showing an Israeli military bulldozer demolishing the statue in violation of the ceasefire agreement and religious rights. The Israeli attack comes as Christians marked Palm Sunday, the seventh Sunday of Lent and the last Sunday before Good Friday, which is followed by the commemoration of the Resurrection of Christ. This day commemorates the entry of Jesus into Jerusalem, where he was greeted by people with palm and olive branches.
Israeli Ground Troops Pushed Deeper Into Southern Lebanon, Continue Attacks - Though the November 26 ceasefire was meant to end the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanese territory, Israeli troops never completely left. On Monday, they expanded that occupation once again, pushing deeper into the Marjayoun District.Israeli troops and civilian administrators advanced along the river near the village of Wazzani. They also reportedly advanced further west and opened fire on people on the outskirts of Ayta ash-Shaab, and conducted “search operations” in the area.Details are still emerging on what they’re doing and why, but the most significant part of this further invasion of Lebanese territory is that Israel has not publicly commented on the matter at all, not even offering the sorts of flimsy pretexts they generally give for violations of the ceasefire.This is just another of well over 1,400 ceasefire violations which Lebanon has reported to the enforcement body, which is run by the United States and France. France has criticized Israel for violations at times, while the US has simply pressured Lebanon to make even further concessions and vowed to block international reconstruction aid until Israel is satisfied.Besides the new advancement of ground troops, Israeli forces have continued to carry out airstrikes on a near daily basis. On Sunday they launched a drone strike against the outskirts of the town Yohmor.The incident that’s most likely to fuel international condemnation, though, came in Yaroun, in the Nabatieh Governorate. Also on Sunday, which was the Christian holiday of Palm Sunday, Israeli military forces entered the area with military bulldozers and demolished a statue of Saint George, a Christian saint. The statue incident has been widely criticized in the Christian world because of the timing, and amounted to not just another violation of the ceasefire, but a violation of religious rights of the Lebanese Christian community.Saint George is considered the patron saint of England, along with Ukraine, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Georgia and Ethiopia. He is also considered the patron saint of the Lebanese capital city of Beirut. A third century soldier in the Roman Army, he was executed for refusing to recant his Christian faith, and is thus considered a martyr. It is held that he is buried in Lod, a city near Tel Aviv in central Israel.
Lebanon Information Minister: Over 2,700 Israeli Ceasefire Violations Reported -Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos revealed on Thursday that his country has documented over 2,700 ceasefire violations committed by Israel since the ceasefire went into effect on November 26.The ceasefire was meant to end the Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, but Israeli ground troops have remained in post on Lebanese soil and they continue to carry out daily attacks against Lebanon, both of which violate the letter and spirit of the ceasefire. The constant Israeli attacks during the ceasefire have resulted in at least 190 deaths and 485 injuries. Morcos also noted that the ceasefire terms, which include Lebanese Army forces moving into the southern part of the country, have been hindered because of the continued presence of Israeli forces there, and constant drone strikes. The Israeli attacks show no sign of slowing down, and more airstrikes were reported overnight and into early Thursday. At night, Israel carried out multiple attacks against southern Lebanon, claiming it was targeting “Hezbollah infrastructure.”
Up to 400,000 displaced from Darfur camp after Sudan RSF takeover, UN agency says (Reuters) - Between 60,000 and 80,000 households - or up to 400,000 people, - have been displaced from Sudan's Zamzam camp in North Darfur after it was taken over by the Rapid Support Forces, according to data from the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration. The RSF seized control of the camp on Sunday after a four-day assault that the government and aid groups have said left hundreds dead or wounded. The United Nations said on Monday that preliminary figures from local sources show more than 300 civilians were killed in fighting on Friday and Saturday around the Zamzam and Abu Shouk displacement camps and the town of al-Fashir in North Darfur. This includes 10 humanitarian personnel from Relief International, who were killed while operating one of the last functioning health centres in Zamzam camp, said a U.N. spokesperson. Rights groups have long warned of possible atrocities should the RSF succeed in its months-long siege of the famine-stricken camp, neighbour to the army's only remaining stronghold in the Darfur region, al-Fashir. Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed burning buildings and smoke in Zamzam on Friday, echoing prior RSF attacks. The RSF has dismissed such allegations, and says the Zamzam camp was being used as a base for army-aligned groups. At the start of the war, the camp was home to about half a million people, a number that is thought to have doubled. In a video shared by the paramilitary force, RSF second in command Abdelrahim Dagalo is seen speaking to a small group of displaced people, promising them food, water, medical care and a return to their homes. The RSF accelerated its assault on the camp after the army regained control of the capital Khartoum, cementing its retaking of the center of the country. It has also accelerated drone attacks into army-controlled territory, including an attack on the Atbara power station in the north of the country on Monday according to the national electricity company, cutting off power to the wartime capital of Port Sudan. The war in Sudan erupted in April 2023, sparked by a power struggle between the army and the RSF, shattering hopes for a transition to civilian rule. The conflict has since displaced millions and devastated wide swathes of the country, spreading famine in several locations.
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