natural gas supplies at an eight year high; gasoline exports at a 47 week high leaves gasoline supplies at a two year low

natural gas price hits 5 month high before report that natural gas inventories are at an eight year high; gasoline exports at a 47 week high leaves gasoline supplies at a two year low

US oil prices finished lower for the second week in three on a stronger US dollar and forecasts for increasing supplies and lower demand...after rising 1.4% to $70.38 a barrel last week on an OPEC production cut extension, the US election of Donald Trump, production disruptions from a major hurricane in the Gulf, a Fed interest rate cut, and disappointment in Chinese economic stimulus measures, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery declined during early overseas trading on Monday, as the risk of supply disruptions had eased following the passing of the U.S. storm "Rafael," and as China’s stimulus plan disappointed traders, who had been hoping for increased fuel demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer​. oil prices then extended their losses during morning trading in New York, as the U.S. dollar index strengthened to a four-month high and Chinese stimulus measures fell short of expectations, and settled $2.34 or 3.3% lower at $68.04 a barrel after Bank of America said that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, while global demand led by China was expected to fall….oil prices held steady in early Asian trade on Tuesday, as traders waited for further price direction from OPEC's monthly report, and resumed their decline after OPEC revised its oil demand growth forecasts lower for the fourth consecutive month, then seesawed in a 50 cent trading range during the remainder of the session and settled 8 cents higher at $68.12 per barrel as traders absorbed OPEC's latest downward revision of demand growth, a stronger U.S. dollar, and disappointment over China's latest stimulus plan….oil traded higher in Asia on Wednesday morning due to near-term supply tightness, as available cargoes were being snapped up quickly, but continued to trend lower in follow through selling in New York, pressured by the OPEC report released on Tuesday and the strength in the U.S. dollar, which ​r​ose to a near seven month high after data showed U.S. inflation was in line with expectations, suggesting the Fed would keep cutting rates, then rebounded slightly on short-covering to settle 31 cents higher at $68.43 a barrel as a strong dollar capped gains…oil prices fell in early Asian trading Thursday, reversing most of the previous session’s gains, due to a stronger dollar and concerns about higher global output amid sluggish demand growth forecasts, then dipped in New York after the EIA reported US crude inventories had risen to their highest in three months, but recovered to settle 27 cents higher at $68.70 a barrel, as a steep draw ​f​rom U.S. fuel stocks outweighed oversupply concerns and demand worries stemming from a stronger dollar…oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Friday after EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, then headed lower on persistent concerns about rising supplies from the U.S. and ​from OPEC+, doubts on China’s economic recovery. and a less dovish stance from the Fe​, and settled down $1.68 or 2.5% at $67.02 a barrel as a looming supply glut and a strong dollar depressed the markets, thus leaving oil prices 4.8% lower for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the third time in four weeks, as traders were surprised by a forecast for wintry weather to arrive by the end of November…after inching up 0.2% to $2.669 per mmBTU last week on a drop in production and a hurricane threat in the Gulf, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for December delivery opened nearly 20 cents higher on Monday and hit $2.956 by 9:55AM, supported by threatening storms in the Gulf and possible short covering, and settled 25.1 cents higher at $2.920 per mmBTU on a ​recent drop in daily output, forecasts for much cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than had been expected, and a speculative short squeeze…natural gas prices opened 3.8 cents lower on Tuesday, but rallied on bullish weather forecasts to a fresh five-week intraday high of $3.013 by 11:25AM, before turning south and settling 1.3 cents lower at $2.907 per mmBTU, as traders sized up ​their lofty gains from Monday​, that ​h​ad been sparked by more production cuts and chillier weather forecasts…natural gas contracts started Wednesday​'s trading 5 cents lower, but then moved cautiously higher to reclaim the overnight losses by 11:00AM on updated forecasts for increased demand to close out the month, then rallied in afternoon trading to settle 7.6 cents higher at a five-month high of $2.983 per mmBTU, on forecasts for the weather to turn seasonally cold in late November, which would force utilities to start pulling gas from storage to meet heating demand….natural gas prices moved sideways along the $2.945 level ahead of the weekly storage report on Thursday, then trended lower for the balance of the session on the above average injection and historically warm temperatures to start the month, and settled down 19.8 cents at $2.785 per mmBTU after weather forecasts backtracked on an early dose of winter​, and the weekly storage report landed heavy…after slumping Friday morning, natural gas prices found technical support at the $2.70 level by midday, which triggered a round of short covering, then a rally on a 10-month high in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants and an 11-month high in gas prices in Europe, leaving gas prices 3.8 cents higher at $2.823 per mmBTU on the day​, and 5.8% higher for the week..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending November 8th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 42 billion cubic feet to an eight year high of 3,974 billion cubic feet by the end of that week, which left our natural gas supplies 158 billion cubic feet, or 4.1% above the 3,816 billion cubic feet that were in storage on November 8th of last year, and 228 billion cubic feet, or 6.1% more than the five-year average of 3,746 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 8th of November over the most recent five years….the 42 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week surpassed the 34 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast ahead of the report, while it almost matched the 41 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in November of 2023, ​a​nd was somewhat more than the average 29 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same autumn week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 8th indicated that in spite of a sizable increase our oil exports, we had surplus oil left to add our stored commercial crude supplies for the seventh time in twenty weeks, and for the 23rd time in the past 49 weeks, as ​the demand for oil that the EIA could not account for ​last week was ​l​ower this week...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 269,000 barrels per day to average 6,509,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 265,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 590,000 barrels per day to 3,440,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 3,069,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending November 8th, 321,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 556,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 100,000 barrels per day lower at 13,400,000 barrels per day. Hence​, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,025,000 barrels per day during the November 8th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,509,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 8th, an average of 175,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 379,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending November 8th averaged a rounded 136,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [-136,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….​B​ut since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 379,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 298,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 81,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-eighth SPR increase in the past fifty-five weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,289,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.2% less than the 6,301,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day lower at 13,400,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 100,000 barrels per day lower at 13,000,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 432,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was​ 2.3% ​higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 91.4% of their capacity while processing those 16,509,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 8th, up from from their 90.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, both ​close to normal utilization rates for the middle of Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 16,509,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 7.2% more than the 15,399,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending November 10thof 2023, and 3.7% more than the 15,916,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 8th, 2019, a week when our refinery utilization rate was at a fairly low 87.7% for mid-Autumn…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 559,000 barrels per day to 10,267,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 8th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 13,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 9.0% more than the 9,415,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending November 10th of last year, and 0.9% more than the gasoline production of 10,173,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending November 8th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 127,000 barrels per day to 4,969,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 233,000 barrels per day during the prior week. But after twenty-four production increases in the past thirty-seven weeks, our distillates output was 4.5% more than the 4,753,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 10th of 2023, while 1.4% less than the 5,039,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 8th, 2019…

Even after this week’s big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the twelfth time in twenty weeks, decreasing by 4,407,000 barrels to a two year low of 206,873,000 barrels during the week ending November 8th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 412,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 331,000 barrels per day to 8,828,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 293,000 barrels per day to a 47 week high of 1,177,000 barrels per day, and fell even as our imports of gasoline rose by 399,000 barrels per day to 628,000 barrels per day, .…After twenty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-one weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.1% below last November 10th’s gasoline inventories of 215,670,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the seventh time in eight weeks, decreasing by 1,394,000 barrels to 115,809,000 barrels over the week ending November 8th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 2,947,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 692,000 barrels per day to 4,098,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 252,000 barrels per day to 1,179,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 54,000 barrels per day to 108,000 barrels per day....Even after 25 inventory withdrawals over the past 42 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 7.4% above the 106,579,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 10th of 2023, while they are still about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after ​a big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 24th time over the past year, increasing by 2,089,000 barrels over the week, from 427,658,000 barrels on November 1st to a three month high of 429,747,000 barrels on November 8th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,149,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories increased to about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while remaining about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the 8th of November over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this November 8th were 2.2% less than the 439,354,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 10th of 2023, and 1.3% less than the 435,355,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 11th of 2022, and 1.2% less than the 435,104,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 5th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

Included below is a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 15th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (November 8th) and this week’s (November 15th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s (November 8th) active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 17th of November, 2023…

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Tell the Commission: Leave Valley Run Wildlife Area alone! – Save Ohio Parks -- Last year the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission approved three different nominations of Valley Run Wildlife Area for fracking. Encino Acquisitions Partners — bankrolled by the Canadian Pension Plan — got the bids to do all this fracking. Now an unnamed oil and gas company has nominated Valley Run Wildlife Area again for fracking — and yet again we need to tell the commission to DENY this nomination.Valley Run is a 304-acre wildlife area in Carroll County, named for the stream that runs through it. Originally part of the adjacent Harrison Hills Campground, it was slated to be developed as campsites before the Ohio Department of Natural Resources purchased it from the county in 2000.Valley Run is now a wooded wildlife area, home to diverse species such as turkeys, grouse, squirrels, deer, rabbit, box turtles, and amphibians. Songbirds include kingfishers, wood ducks, woodpeckers, flycatchers, catbirds, orioles, and red-tailed hawks. Former logging roads provide excellent hiking and wildlife viewing.Unfortunately, the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has already approved Encino to frack across almost all of Valley Run’s 304 acres. The latest nomination is for the last 3.6 acres.Tell the Commission: Enough fracking of Valley Run! Please visit the Nomination Comment Form, choose Nomination #24-DNR-0010, and submit your comment.

EOG Grows Utica Drilling in 2025 – Will Operate 2 Rigs -- EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns nearly a half million acres of leases in the Ohio Utica. EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. The company experimented with the Utica this year, however, the time for experimenting is coming to a close. During the company’s third quarter update last Friday, COO Jeff Leitzell said EOG will be “up to two full rigs and one full frac fleet by year-end” next year.

EOG Greenlights Second Rig to Ohio Utica Oil Wildcatting | Hart Energy - EOG Resources has greenlit its Utica oil wildcatting in eastern Ohio to two rigs and one full-time frac spread as finding and development (F&D) costs fall to between $6/boe and $8/boe.The E&P brought nine more Utica wells on in third-quarter 2024, taking its new-drill dataset in the play to 25 wells to accompany vertical and horizontal control from past drillers’ well logs. “Oil and [natural gas] liquids performance continues to meet or exceed expectations, demonstrating the premium quality of this play,” Jeff Leitzell, EOG COO, told investors in a Nov. 8 call. EOG reported in May that the Utica’s oil results “compete with the best plays in America—very comparable to the Permian on a production-per-foot basis, both in oil and equivalent.”In addition to the Permian, EOG operates in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and other Lower 48 plays.Days to D&C wells in the Utica have been falling—by 29% to drill and by 13% to complete—the operator reported in the call this month.It made 2 miles of lateral in one day in a recent well, Leitzell said. It also completed 1,900 ft of lateral in one day, EOG reported.The D&C pricetag in a few years will average less than $650 per treated lateral foot, he added.To date, EOG has done its delineation with one rig and a part-time frac spread. “We're looking at about a 50% increase in activity. We'll be up to two full rigs and one full frac fleet by year-end,” Leitzell said.The new wells include the single Whitacre that had a 30-day IP of 1,975 boe/d, 55% oil and 80% liquids. (Note: All IP figures from EOG on its Utica wells normalizes lateral length to three miles.)It was made near two multi-well pads—Timberwolf and Shadow—on the northern end of the roughly 140-mile north-south stretch of volatile oil fairway.The four-well Timberwolf IP’ed in August of 2023 at 1,000-ft spacing with 2,150 boe/d, 55% oil and 85% liquids. Through the second quarter of this year, it has produced 919,551 bbl of oil, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) data.The five-well Shadow tested this past June at 700-ft spacing with 2,125 boe/d, 50% oil and 80% liquids. In its first days online, it made 72,022 bbl of oil through June 30, according to the DNR.Also new is the four-well Wolverine package at 800-ft spacing in the central part of the fairway. These IP’ed an average of 2,950 boe/d, 55% oil and 75% liquids in September.The spacing test is near the three-well Xavier pad that IP’ed at 800-ft spacing in October of 2023 with 3,250 boe/d, 55% oil and 75% liquids. The Xavier wells produced 822,009 bbl of oil through June 30, according to the DNR.At the southern end of the oil fairway, the four-well Sable at 800-ft spacing came on in July with 1,425 boe/d, 65% oil and 85% liquids.It is near the four-well White Rhino that IP’ed this past spring from 1,000-ft spacing with 1,700 boe/d, 70% oil and 85% liquids. Through June 30, it produced 260,509 bbl of oil.

Ascent Resources 3Q – Continues Shifting Focus to More Oil & NGLs - Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its third quarter 2024 update last week. The company produced 2,075 MMcfe/d (2.08 Bcfe/d), down 4% from 2,165 MMcfe/d (2.16 Bcfe/d) produced in 3Q23. Ascent pivoted to produce more liquids, including oil and NGLs, with an emphasis on producing more NGLs during 3Q24. According to the update, the company plans to continue its liquids focus in the fourth quarter.

34 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 4 – 10 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Nov 4 – 10, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica came roaring back with a total of 34 permits issued (up from 13 issued the prior week). There were some VERY interesting things to note about some of the permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued 16 new permits, with five going to Range Resources in Washington County. And that’s the first of three interesting things to note. All five Range permits were issued for Cecil Township, which recently passed a ban on new fracking via a 2,500-foot setback regulation (see Cecil Twp Supervisors Pull the Trigger on Frack Ban Via Setbacks). ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HG ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Utility Dive: North American Electric Reliability Corp: Natural Gas Electric Generation Is Threatened This Winter By Ongoing Concerns About Gas Production, Delivery In Extreme Weather Conditions - On November 15, Utility Dive reported the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said in its Annual Winter Reliability Assessment natural gas electric generation “is threatened this winter by ongoing concerns with natural gas production and delivery in extreme conditions and a potential regional pipeline capacity issue in the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.” NERC continued, “While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America, placing electric reliability at risk. “As winter approaches, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep natural gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.” “During recent extreme winter weather events [winter storms Elliott and Uri], each of these areas has experienced or come dangerously close to a shortfall in electricity supply for which fuel availability was a significant factor. “Because foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity again this winter, a shutdown of in-service regional natural gas facilities would endanger grid reliability.” NERC said, “The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates a colder winter than last year’s relatively mild winter season, leading to a projection that U.S. households that use natural gas to heat their homes will consume 5% more than last winter. “In addition, natural gas consumption in the power sector has seen record highs this year. “The increased consumption of natural gas for power generation combined with the anticipated year-on-year increase in consumption of natural gas for home heating, particularly in the Midwest, comes as lower natural gas prices have had a chilling effect on natural gas production. “The result of higher consumption and lower production is inventory that is settling closer to average volumes after several years of above-average natural gas stockpiles.” NERC said, “More generally, concerns over natural gas production issues during cold weather events remain in the Eastern and Western Interconnections. “As one reporting assessment area has noted, there is (outside of Texas) little to no information to indicate that upstream gas producers, gatherers, and processors have improved winterization of their operations.” NERC Conclusion: NERC’s winter reliability assessment concluded that all areas of the bulk power system have adequate resources for normal winter peak-load conditions but “more extreme winter conditions extending over a wide area could result in electricity supply and energy shortfalls.” Click Here for a copy of the NERC Winter Reliability Assessment.

Williams Says NatGas Demand Sky High, Full Roster of Pipe Projects -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Williams delivered its third quarter update last week. The company is working overtime to expand its extensive network of natural gas pipelines. Quick fact: Did you know that Williams’ pipeline network handles about one-third of U.S. natural gas? Massive! And it’s only going to grow, according to CEO Alan Armstrong, who said: “Not only do we have a clear line of sight to a full roster of projects that are in execution, but we continue to commercialize vital high return projects across our footprint.” Much of the expansion will come in the Marcellus/Utica region and regions adjacent to ours fed by our molecules.

Kentucky Utility Plans to Build 4 New Gas-Fired Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), a nonprofit power generation and transmission electric utility with headquarters in Winchester, Kentucky, announced plans to build two new natural gas-fired power plants and convert its two existing coal-fired power plants to burn natural gas. That’s four new gas-fired power plants coming to two different counties, one county in the northern part of the state, the other in the southern part. While no mention was made of the source of gas to be used, it’s a safe bet the molecules will come from the Marcellus/Utica

Court Rescinds Approval of WNY Gas-Fired Plant Sale to Bitcoin Co.-- Marcellus Drilling News -- In September 2022, the New York Public Service Commission (PSC), which oversees and regulates public utilities in the state, approved the takeover of the Fortistar gas-fired power plant in North Tonawanda, NY, a town close to Niagara Falls, by Canadian crypto mining company Digihost. In December 2022, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) offered its blessing too. All of which prompted the radicals of Earthjustice, representing two other disgusting radical groups—the Sierra Club and Clean Air Coalition of Western New York—to sue (see Green Radicals Sue NYS for Approving Niagara Falls Bitcoin Plant). Fortunately, the lawsuit didn’t stop the transfer, which happened in early 2023 (see Canadian Bitcoin Operator Completes Purchase of WNY Gas-Fired Plant). However, Earthjustice continued to pursue its lawsuit and yesterday got a ruling from a state court to nullify the PSC’s original approval of the sale to Digihost.

Venture Global Seeks Full Gator Express Pipe In-Service as IPO Rumors Swirl — Venture Global LNG Inc. could be preparing to launch an initial public offering (IPO) in the coming days as it pushes forward with commissioning of its Plaquemines project. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) chart showing U.S. LNG export facilities' feed gas intake for Nov. 14. Bloomberg reported the Virginia-based LNG export developer is preparing to launch an IPO that could raise $3 billion, according to confidential sources. The company was launched in 2013 by co-founders Mike Sabel and Bob Pender. Its Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana began producing volumes in 2022. In the meantime, Venture Global is awaiting approval from FERC to introduce feed gas to the first block of liquefaction units at its Plaquemines LNG facility after filing a request earlier in the week. Related Tags

NextDecade Juggles Rio Grande LNG Construction, Train 4 Contracts as Appeals Case Continues -- NextDecade Corp. is progressing work on its LNG export project in Texas and pursuing customers for its expansions while it awaits federal court decisions. As part of a third quarter business update, the Houston-based company disclosed it made progress on the 17.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) first phase of the Rio Grande LNG project during the quarter. NextDecade has been facing regulatory uncertainty since August, when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit ordered FERC’s authorization of several Texas projects to be vacated and remanded. CEO Matt Schatzman said its construction partner Bechtel Corp. has been pushing ahead with construction and foundational work at the Brownsville, TX, site while NextDecade fights to appeal the decision.

Crown LNG rushing to develop and start building US LNG plant while Trump in office -Norwegian headquartered Crown LNG is racing against time to develop and start construction of a LNG export plant in the U.S. before President-elect Donald Trump's second term ends in 2029, its CEO Swapan Kataria said. "We were sincerely hoping that he would be there to support the industry because certainly the old administration was against it, quite simply," said Kataria on Tuesday in an interview with Reuters. Trump has promised to reduce regulations to make it easier for LNG projects to be approved. The U.S. is already the world's largest exporter of the super-chilled gas and there are several projects under construction and in the development stage. Crown LNG is hoping to build a 9-MMtpy LNG facility offshore Texas from which it hopes to then export the gas to its proposed regasification terminals in India, Vietnam and Scotland, all of which are still in various stages of development. The company has ruled out locating the plant in Louisiana because it worries about accessing natural gas pipelines over a 25- to 40-year period, and wants to build offshore because it feels the approval process is quicker than on land and will have to meet fewer demands than those of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Kataria said. Crown LNG believes the Maritime Administration (MARAD) is a less challenging regulatory environment that favors getting projects done. "MARAD has a quicker turnaround than the FERC. FERC has a lot more expensive process as opposed to MARAD," Kataria said. Crown is proposing to use a bottom-fixed, gravity-based structure for its LNG plant to lower costs and reduce its environmental footprint. The company's CEO said the strategy of developing its regasification terminals and selling to smaller end users, like power plants and fertilizer producers, means it can get many A-grade counterparties to help raise the debt required for plant construction. Crown is also open to buying LNG from the U.S. for its proposed 7.5 MMtpy terminal in India but said U.S. companies must know there is a cap on the price Indian buyers can pay and unless they are prepared to work a formula that recognizes that cap, Indian buyers will continue to purchase during downcycles, Kataria said.

US natgas prices soar 9% to 5-week high on output drop, jump in demand (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures soared about 9% to a five-week high on Monday on a drop in daily output over the past few days, forecasts for much cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and a possible speculative short squeeze. The heating demand should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage in late November. There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Analysts projected utilities added more gas than normal into storage last week for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October 2022. Prior to the last few weeks, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March. Prices have remained relatively low since then, dropping to a 23-year low for the month of October. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 25.1 cents, or 9.4%, to settle at $2.920 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Oct. 3. The tremendous gain, which was the biggest daily percentage increase since prices soared 21% on Oct. 30, cut the premium of futures for January over December to just 21 cents per mmBtu, the lowest since November 2022. The jump in gas prices also boosted stock prices for several U.S. gas producers, including a 7% increase for Antero Resources AR.N, a 6% increase for Comstock Resources and a 5% increase for EQT. Even though gas futures gained about 18% over the prior three weeks, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their highest since April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. "The weekend (weather) shift could catch aggressive speculator shorts off-guard, and, if momentum can be sustained, potentially trigger a near-term short squeeze to drive NYMEX futures steeply higher first," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note. In the spot market, gas prices plunged to a 25-year low at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana and dropped into negative territory for a record 47th time at the Waha hub in West Texas. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output over the past three days fell by 2.3 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.2 bcfd on Monday. Some of that output drop was due to curtailments in the Gulf of Mexico for Hurricane Rafael, which has since dissipated. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will switch from warmer than normal from now through Nov. 20 to near normal from Nov. 21-26. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this week to 110.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion - US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in. Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows "massive cold trends" for the eastern half of the US. "The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead," BAMWX wrote on X, adding, "Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential." Massive colder trends on the mid-day GEFS run for late November. The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead. Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential.#Energy #NatGas #OOTT $ng $ung pic.twitter.com/UpJ5pT44t8— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 13, 2024Meteorologist Ryan Kane wrote on X, "It's safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS.""Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established," Kane noted. Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.

US natgas prices climb 3% to 5-month high with cold weather coming in late November (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a five-month high on Wednesday on forecasts for the weather to turn seasonally cold in late November, which should force utilities to start pulling gas from storage to meet rising heating demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.6 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.983 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 12. Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 8, but were so far uncertain whether they would add or pull gas during the week ended Nov. 15 since supply and demand were very close. About 6% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. After weeks of mild weather, analysts said the expected build during the week ended Nov. 8 would be the first time utilities added more gas to storage than usual for four weeks in a row since October 2022. Prior to the last few weeks, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March. Prices have remained relatively soft since then, dropping to a 23-year low in October. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a record 48th time this year. Analysts have said that Waha prices traded in negative territory on eight of the past nine days due in part to pipeline constraints caused by maintenance on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway gas pipe in Texas, which the company has said it expected to mostly complete on Nov. 14. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain warmer than normal through Nov. 20 before turning near normal from Nov. 21-28. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 bcfd this week to 109.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was below LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Gas prices traded around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia

U.S. natgas flows to LNG export plants on track to hit 9-month high -- The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to rise to a nine-month high on Thursday as feedgas to a few plants hit multi-week highs, according to data from financial firm LSEG. The energy market cares about feedgas flows to U.S. LNG plants because exports have been the gas industry's biggest source of demand growth in recent years. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices, feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions, and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. U.S. LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 14.0 Bft3d on Wednesday to a nine-month high of 14.4 Bft3d on Thursday. One Bft3 can supply about 5 MM U.S. homes for a day. That increase in gas flows was due to rising feedgas at several plants. Flows to Venture Global LNG's 1.6-Bft3d Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana were on track to rise to a four-month high of 1.5 Bft3d on Thursday. Flows to Cameron LNG's 2-Bft3d Cameron plant in Louisiana were on track to rise to a four-week high of 2.3 Bft3d on Thursday. Flows to Cheniere Energy's 4.5-Bft3d Sabine Pass in Louisiana were on track to rise to a three-week high of 4.9 Bft3d on Thursday. Sabine is the biggest U.S. LNG export plant. LNG export plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of that fuel to run liquefaction and other equipment. In addition to the operating export plants, the gas market is waiting for two new facilities under construction to enter service in test mode before the end of the year - the first 1.8-Bft3d phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines in Louisiana and the 1.5-Bft3d Stage 3 expansion at Cheniere's Corpus Christi in Texas. Plaquemines has been pulling in small amounts of pipeline gas in test mode every day since mid-September, according to LSEG data. Many analysts expect the plant to start pulling in more gas in coming days or weeks to test the plant's liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG.

US natgas prices edge up 1% on rising LNG feedgas, spike in European prices (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday due to an increase in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to a 10-month high and the recent spike in gas prices in Europe to an 11-month high. Capping that price increase was a risein daily output and forecasts for less cold weather in late November than previously expected, whichshould reduce heating demand and allow utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage for another week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.823 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the front-month was up about 6%, putting it upfor a fourth week in a row for the first time since September. During those four weeks, the contract has gained about 25%. Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022. There was currently about 7% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. Prior to the last moth or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output rose by about 2.7 bcfd over the prior four days to 101.2 bcfd on Thursday, up from a nine-month low of 98.4 bcfd on Nov. 10. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 30 except for some near normal days from Nov. 21-24. But with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week and 117.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a 10-month high of 14.4 bcfd on Friday with flows to a few plants hitting multi-week highs in recent days. Gas prices traded near an 11-month high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe on supply concerns afterRussia told Austria it would suspend gas deliveries from Saturday.NG/EU

EPA rule imposes fee for excess methane emissions in oil, gas industry --The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a final rule Tuesday that implements a charge for oil and gas companies that release too much of the planet-warming gas methane.The fee was passed as part of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill. Methane is a planet-warming pollutant that is about 28 times as powerful as carbon dioxide. Oil and gas production is one major source of methane emissions, because methane — the main component of natural gas — is sometimes released or burned during that process. Under the 2022 law, companies that emit methane at levels equivalent to 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide each year must pay for their excess emissions. That fee is $900 per metric ton this year, $1,200 for emissions next year and $1,500 for emissions the following year.Much of this is set out in the law, and the EPA’s rule details how the charge will be implemented. The EPA estimates the program will prevent a total of 1.2 million metric tons of methane from entering the atmosphere, with climate gains equivalent to taking nearly 8 million gas-powered cars off the road for a year. It will cost the industry $2.2 billion to comply, the agency estimates.This program could be scrapped by Congress in the months ahead. It was part of a law that passed by a process called budget reconciliation, which allows certain legislation to evade the filibuster — only requiring 50 votes in the Senate. It passed the House and Senate without a single Republican vote.Now that the GOP has secured a trifecta, Republicans could pursue their own reconciliation bill that eliminates the program. Facilities in compliance with the recently finalized Clean Air Act standards for oil and gas operations would be exempt from the charge after certain criteria set by Congress are met.

Oil and gas jobs decline amid record-breaking production - The United States is pumping out more oil and gas than any country in history. But even as production soars, oil field employment keeps shrinking. The decadelong decline isn’t driven by climate policy or the rise in clean energy. Instead, it’s the result of boom-and-bust cycles — and the fossil fuel industry’s relentless push for efficiency. “You just need fewer workers to produce more oil,” said Greg Upton, executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies. “When you need less workers, that’s a sign of growth. On the other hand, these are real people losing their jobs.” Advertisement Oil production is up 5 percent since 2019, the last peak before the pandemic. The industry set a new record for crude production last week, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, pumping an average of 13.4 million barrels a day. But employment among the people who find that oil and pull it out of the ground is down nearly 20 percent from prepandemic levels. Oil and gas production still supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States, from the rig floor to office suites in Houston skyscrapers. Even at the low end, many pay enough to offer middle-class incomes to people without college degrees. And many of the jobs supported by oil and gas drilling are also far from the oil field — such as the union pipefitters who work in refineries and the workers at nearby restaurants. The Marcellus Shale Coalition trade group says in Pennsylvania the industry supports 10 times the jobs that drilling wells create directly. But declining oil field employment shows that the transition away from fossil fuel jobs is already happening without drilling bans or comprehensive federal climate regulation.

Coterra to Acquire Permian Assets from Franklin, Avant for $3.95B -Coterra Energy Inc. is acquiring Permian Basin assets from Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources through two separate definitive agreements worth $3.95 billion, Coterra announced early Nov. 13.The company is acquiring 400 to 550 net Permian Basin locations primarily targeting the Bone Spring, Harkey, Avalon and Lower Wolfcamp/Penn Shale. The deals will add 49,000 net acres in Lea County, New Mexico, which are contiguous with its northern Delaware Basin acreage, to create an 83,000-acre portfolio in the Delaware.Coterra is funding the deals with $2.95 billion in cash and $1 billion in common stock, or approximately 40.9 million shares.The announcement is a long-awaited move by Coterra to grow dramatically in the Permian, moving on large portions in New Mexico’s Delaware Basin. Franklin Mountain, in particular, was seen as a likely takeover target in recent months.

Plains All American agrees to pay about $73 million to settle California oil spill lawsuit – (Reuters) – Plains All American Pipeline has agreed to pay $72.5 million to settle a lawsuit over the 2015 Refugio Beach oil spill in Santa Barbara, a filing showed on Tuesday. The spill occurred after a pipeline, which ran across California’s coastline, ruptured and spilled an estimated 126,000 gallons of oil into the ocean and on the beaches. In 2020, the California State Lands Commission and insurance firm Aspen American Insurance had sued Plains All American – the operator of the failed pipeline – alleging negligence, willful misconduct, and interference with prospective economic advantage. The state of California will receive $50.5 million from the settlement, while Aspen will get $22 million. Plains All American and Aspen Insurance did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. “This settlement … holds the operator accountable and provides appropriate compensation to the state for the fiscal damages caused by this spill,” Joe Stephenshaw, state lands commissioner and California Department of Finance director, said in a statement.

Trump picks fracking executive Chris Wright as DOE secretary - President-elect Donald Trump named oil and gas executive Chris Wright as his choice to lead the Department of Energy on Saturday.In a statement, Trump said Wright would also be part of a new Council of National Energy.“Chris was one of the pioneers who helped launch the American Shale Revolution that fueled American Energy Independence, and transformed the Global Energy Markets and Geopolitics,” the statement said. Wright is a Trump donor and CEO of the Denver-based energy technology company Liberty Energy, which provides hydraulic fracturing services throughout the West. If confirmed, Wright will be tasked with approving billions of dollars for renewable energy, carbon capture, gas, direct air capture and hydrogen projects.

North Dakota seeks to intervene in latest Dakota Access Pipeline lawsuit • The state of North Dakota has asked to become a defendant in the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s new lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers seeking to shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline. The tribe’s complaint, filed last month, accuses the Army Corps of violating federal law by allowing the pipeline to operate without an easement, adequate environmental study or proper emergency spill response plans, among other violations. North Dakota in a memo filed last week argued that closing the pipeline, often referred to as DAPL, would cost the state government hundreds of millions of dollars, put thousands of jobs in jeopardy and disrupt regional supply chains. North Dakota also argues that a federal court order shuttering DAPL could infringe upon the state’s right to regulate its own land and resources. The Army Corps of Engineers has jurisdiction over a section of the pipeline that passes under Lake Oahe, a reservoir on the Missouri River, about a half-mile upstream from the Standing Rock Reservation. Standing Rock opposes the pipeline over concerns that it violates the tribe’s sovereignty, has disrupted sacred cultural sites and endangers the tribe’s water supply. If a judge were to grant Standing Rock’s request to shutter DAPL, the North Dakota state government would lose out on a projected $900 million in revenue in the first 12 months, Office of Budget and Management Director Susan Sisk said in a statement filed in court. The state relies on energy taxes to fund a significant portion of its operations, Sisk wrote. She noted more than 10% of North Dakota’s annual general fund revenue comes from oil and gas taxes, and nearly 60% of the state’s tax and fee revenue comes from oil and gas extraction and production. DAPL is a big piece of that equation, according to Sisk. She wrote that half of the crude oil produced in North Dakota is transported through the pipeline. If the pipeline went away, that oil could also be transported by rail or truck, but existing infrastructure wouldn’t be able to move it at the same pace as DAPL, she added. State officials say that energy workers would also be at risk. Shutting down DAPL would cause North Dakota to temporarily lose roughly 8,450 to 9,300 jobs, and permanently lose 1,700 to 2,200 jobs, Department of Mineral Resources Director Nathan Anderson wrote in court records filed by the state.

Gas flares contribute to 2 western North Dakota wildfires, reports say • Heat from natural gas flares combined with high winds and dry vegetation caused two of the October wildfires in western North Dakota, according to the state fire marshal. Investigations into an Oct. 5 fire near Keene and a fire the same day near New Town found that both originated with flares at oil and gas wells next to agricultural land with stubble or dry grass, according to investigative reports. The McKenzie County fires occurred in the hours before state regulators asked operators to voluntarily shut down oil and gas wells in areas with high fire danger, according to the investigative reports and an interview with Department of Mineral Resources Director Nathan Anderson. The North Dakota State Fire Marshal is finalizing investigative reports on wildfires in Williams County, including one that claimed two lives and injured six. The U.S. Forest Service is investigating the Elkhorn Fire in McKenzie County and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms is investigating the Bear Den Fire on the Fort Berthold Reservation. A total of 190 fires occurred in North Dakota in October, burning 126,273 acres, according to the state Department of Emergency Services. Damage estimates are still being compiled, but so far rural electric cooperatives report an estimated $7.7 million in damages, said Department of Emergency Services spokeswoman Alison Vetter. That would not include losses to farmers and ranchers. McKenzie County fire crews received a report shortly after 3 p.m. Oct. 5 of a rapidly spreading fire near Keene. It ultimately burned 7,000 acres. About 5:30 p.m. that day, New Town fire crews were dispatched to another wildfire that resulted in damage to more than 2,000 acres. Both occurred near oil sites and the fires are referred to in investigative reports as the Midnight Run fire and the Dinwoodie fire – named after the oil wells. Homes near both fires were evacuated as a precaution. No structures were lost and no injuries were reported. To evaluate the cause of the fires, investigators examined the scene, interviewed witnesses and reviewed data including weather information. Wind gusts in the region were as high as 60-70 mph at times. The North Dakota State Fire Marshal classified both fires as accidental. The reports rule out other causes and conclude that the high winds influenced the ignition and the spread of the fire. The reports note the conclusions could change if additional information is provided. The New Town fire originated next to a Hess Corp. site with five oil and gas wells and a flare stack that a witness said was about 300 feet from the burned area, according to the report. Operators are required to keep flares lit at oil and gas wells to prevent venting of natural gas. If a well is shut in, there is no need for a flare. The report on the New Town fire said the normal temperature from the flare pilot ranges from 1,200-1,800 degrees Fahrenheit, according to information provided to investigators. A Hess Corp. representative told investigators the pilot temperature was slightly higher that day, the report says. It’s possible for pressure spikes to occur with a flare stack that cause hot oil or carbon particles to be dislodged. When investigators were on site on Oct. 9, the Hess flare stack had a sudden “burp,” causing the flare to get larger and black smoke to extend from the stack, investigators noted. A Hess representative told investigators that one pressure spike was recorded the day of the wildfire but said it should not have caused hot oil to dislodge, the report says. A Hess spokesperson said Wednesday the company was still reviewing the fire marshal’s report and had no immediate comment.

Exclusive: Harold Hamm's Top Oil, Gas Goals After Trump Victory | Hart Energy --When Harold Hamm talks U.S. energy, President-elect Donald Trump listens. Hamm, the founder and executive chairman of privately-held Continental Resources, ran point on drumming up oil and gas industry support and funding for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. In an exclusive interview with Hart Energy, Hamm refused to take any credit for Trump’s election victory last week—but acknowledged the role he played in getting the U.S. energy industry to rally behind the former president. “Obviously it’s no secret that I helped gather the industry up, oil and gas producers and the entire industry,” Hamm said. “They got really broad coverage about the meeting at Mar-a-Lago with the president—[I] had dinner with him with the entire group.” But after Trump’s resounding victory at the ballot boxes last week—and with both houses of Congress potentially back under Republican control—Hamm expects to see results for the U.S. energy industry. From a “laundry list” of hundreds of items that need to be done, or undone, a handful stick out to Hamm.Impediments put in place by the Biden administration to slow or halt oil and gas leasing activity on federal lands or in the Gulf of Mexico should be removed, Hamm said.“The mineral wealth of the U.S. government is tremendous, but you have to develop that,” he said. “Certainly, Trump will do that. Our economy needs it, federal government needs it.”The Biden administration eventually resumed auctioning drilling leases on federal lands in 2022—when costs for fuel and power were skyrocketing—but with smaller acreage packages offered and higher royalties for producers.Offshore leasing has been limited to the central and western Gulf of Mexico in favor of the Biden administration’s lofty goal of expanding offshore wind power generation.But it’s not just upstream. The permitting process needs to be simplified and streamlined to build out pipelines, downstream facilities or even infrastructure like new housing, Hamm said.“Permitting affects everything,” he said. “You’ve got to turn that loose, and you just need some new people to do it.”The Biden administration also drew ire from the U.S. oil and gas industry earlier this year for “pausing” the issuance of LNG export licenses to non-free trade agreement countries.The administration said the pause would allow time for a study analyzing the impacts of U.S. LNG exports on the climate, the economy and national security.Industry executives and analysts say the pause has negatively impacted the nation’s reputation as a reliable exporter—at a time when countries like Qatar and Australia are actively expanding global LNG market share.Many oil and gas executives have lobbied for Trump to un-pause the LNG pause, Hamm included.“In the U.S. we certainly got a whole lot of natural gas,” Hamm said.Hamm also pushed back on the outgoing administration using federal agencies to stymie the oil and gas industry’s day-to-day business.The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) intervened in several large-scale upstream M&A transactions, including Exxon Mobil’s $60 billion acquisition of Permian Basin giant Pioneer Natural Resources, Chevron’s $55 billion acquisition ofHess Corp. and the merger between gas producers Chesapeake Energy andSouthwestern Energy.The FTC barred Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield and Hess CEO John Hess from serving on the Exxon and Chevron boards, respectively, alleging the executives worked to collude with the OPEC cartel to fix global commodity prices.The Biden administration also frequently tapped the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for matters related to power plant pollution, methane emissions from upstream production and vehicle tailpipe emissions standards.“They used every single agency as much as they could to deter the industry, delay the industry,” Hamm said, “and basically live up to their promise to get us off fossil fuels going forward.”

EIA expects decreasing refining capacity to slow the decline of US refining margins; India emerges as leading source of growth in oil consumption - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US refinery capacity to be 17.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2025, about 3% less than at the beginning of this year. LyondellBasel Industries plans to close its Houston Refinery in the first quarter of 2025, removing nearly 264,000 barrels per day of domestic refining capacity. Last month, Phillips 66 announced it will cease operations at its Los Angeles refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025, removing a further 138,700 barrels per day of US refining capacity.In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that after declining for several years, refinery margins (the difference between the selling price and the cost of production) for gasoline and diesel, known as crack spreads, will remain relatively unchanged in 2025.Crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, and we expect them to hold steady next year, even with the decrease in refining capacity. The good news from a consumer perspective is that lower crack spreads have resulted in reduced gasoline and diesel prices at the pump.— EIA expects the US gasoline price to average about $3.20 per gallon and diesel to average about $3.60 per gallon in 2025.Other highlights from the November STEO include:

• Brent crude oil spot price: EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price to average about $76 per barrel in 2025. EIA expects that global oil inventories to increase in the second quarter of 2025, following five quarters of decreases, as increased production from OPEC+ and other regions result in global oil production outpacing demand. Two primary sources of uncertainty in EIA’s forecast are the course of conflicts in the Middle East and the willingness of OPEC+ members to adhere to production cuts.
• US distillate fuels consumption: EIA forecasts US consumption of distillate fuels will grow by about 4% in 2025, largely because of growth in domestic manufacturing activity and increased demand from truckers that ship goods.
• Global oil consumption: India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in our forecast. Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally. We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024. EIA expects even more growth next year, with global oil consumption rising by 1.2 million b/d.
• Global liquid fuels demand: EIA forecasts global liquid fuels consumption to have increased by about 1.0 million barrels per day by the end of this year and increase by 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of next year. Global liquid fuels consumption will likely average a record 104.4 million barrels per day for 2025, although the average consumption growth rate for each year is less than the average rate over the last ten years. Most liquid fuels consumption growth is in Asia—especially India. EIA expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by about 300,000 barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, driven by rising demand for transportation fuels.
• Winter fuels: EIA updated its forecasts for average household heating fuel expenditures for this winter after a warmer-than-normal start to the season. EIA expects negligible changes from its previous forecast for the average household consumption and total expenditures for heating fuels this winter.

US LNG Exports Poised to Hit 9-Month High - The seven largest US LNG export plants are receiving high volumes of gas, new data from LSEG revealed on Thursday, with gas flows expected to reach a nine-month high.The data shows that US LNG feedgas is set to rise from 14 billion cubic feet per day yesterday to 14.4 billion cubic feet per day today.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana—the largest LNG export plant in the United States—was on track to receive 4.9 bcfd today—a three-week high.And flows could continue to climb as the new Plaquemines has been pulling gas in test mode for two months now, LSEG data shows. Federal regulators gave Venture Global LNG permission to begin starting up its LNG equipment at Plaquemines in early September. At the time, Venture said the first phase of the plant would begin exports later this year, with full operations resulting in 10 million tons per annum, making it the second largest single LNG facility in the U.S., behind Sabine Pass.The share prices of LNG exporters in the United States have seen a jump following Donald Trump’s election victory, with many seeing the industry as one of the main beneficiaries of an upcoming new trade deal between Washington and Brussels.Trump has spoken about the trade deficit that the U.S. has been running with the European Union for years and wants to change that by imposing tariffs on European imports. The European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, responded to that threat by suggesting the EU could boost the amount of U.S. LNG it buys.“We still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia. And why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper, and brings down our energy prices,” Von der Leyen said earlier this month.

Improved AECO Pricing From LNG Canada Startup Unlikely to Last Long, Says Ovintiv CEO --Multi-basin independent Ovintiv Inc., which works in the Montney Shale of Western Canada, expects the startup of LNG Canada next year to lead to better natural gas prices at the AECO hub, but the gains may be transitory, CEO Brendan McCracken said. Chart showing Ovintiv's 3Q2024 operational performance. During the third quarter conference call on Friday, McCracken said Ovintiv’s Montney natural gas would help to feed the Shell plc-led LNG Canada export project and others underway in British Columbia (BC). LNG Canada, in Kitimat on the BC coast, is close to commissioning its first train. Another BC project, Cedar LNG, sponsored by Pembina Pipeline Corp. and the Haisla Nation, was sanctioned in June, but is not expected to impact markets in the near term.

Cedar LNG Construction Underway With Offtake Contracts Expected in Early ‘25, Says Pembina Exec --A pending patent lawsuit by Steelhead LNG against the proposed Cedar LNG export export facility in British Columbia is expected to have no impact on construction or in-service timelines, according to Pembina Pipeline Corp. executives. Map of Western Canada, specifically showing Cedar LNG infrastructure location with associated natural gas pipeline routes. “We don’t believe that the Cedar prior project infringes on the patent or that the patent is valid, there’s currently a challenge that has been ruled invalid in Canada,” said Pembina’s Janet Loduca, senior vice president of external affairs, during the third quarter conference call. "That appeal is going to be heard shortly. So no, we don’t anticipate any impacts to construction or in-service date for the project.”

Panama Canal Offering LNG Vessels More Incentives as Cape of Good Horn Transits Gain Favor -- Following a huge drop in U.S. LNG shipments to Asia that traveled through the Panama Canal, the waterway is offering a long-term slot allocation system (LOTSA) to attract more vessels. Map of Panama Canal and the associated infrastructure. It has been difficult for some LNG operators to secure slots at the Panama Canal in advance, but the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is trying to resolve this situation by introducing the LOTSA system. It would allow shipowners to book up to one year ahead. According to Kpler, a number of players have already secured slots for 2025. The PCA was forced to reduce vessel traffic last year when lower water levels caused a historic drought. The canal typically is the fastest route for U.S. LNG to reach Asia. Vessels carrying American LNG took the longer route around Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America to deliver the super-chilled fuel to Asian customers.

U.S. Looks to Ensure Long-Term Demand for Its LNG in Europe --The United States is looking to keep its LNG flowing to Europe in the long term when the EU will have standards for methane emissions for all imported fossil fuels.The EU’s methane regulation will require imports of oil and gas, including LNG, to have equally strong or more stringent requirements of thresholds for these emissions than the European Union, starting in 2030.These requirements, yet to be deliberated and announced in detail, would mean that U.S. LNG developers and exporters would need to clean up their operations to ensure their product would be EU-emission compliant by the end of the decade.Days before the U.S. presidential election, the Biden Administration sought to begin discussions with the EU to ensure that LNG supply compliant with U.S. methane rules would automatically be considered compliant with the EU regulation. The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) co-signed a letteraddressed to European Commission Director-General for Energy Juul Jorgensen, requesting a determination of “equivalency” for U.S. exports of LNG to Europe.The letter was signed by DOE Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Brad Crabtree, and the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Assistant Administrator for the Office of Air & Radiation, Joseph Goffman.“We understand that this process will take time. However, we would like to begin discussions as soon as possible, to ensure the continued reliable and stable supply of natural gas from the United States to Europe,” they wrote in the letter dated October 28.“We are confident that the United States’ extensive domestic regulatory regime to monitor, measure, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (especially methane) from the oil and gas sector is consistent with the goals of the EU’s regulations,” they noted.With an alignment of methane emission standards, the U.S. is looking to keep its now largest LNG export market well into the next decade. It is also seeking to have methane regulation on U.S. LNG regardless of what President-elect Donald Trump would do with U.S. environmental protection requirements over the next four years—most likely repeal most of them.The United States, the world’s top LNG exporter last year ahead of Qatar and Australia, continued to export two-thirds of its LNG volumes to Europe, including Turkey, in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Western Sanctions Limiting Russian LNG Operations, but Cargoes Continue Flowing to Europe -- Despite an increasing number of sanctions on Russian LNG projects and vessels, cargoes continued to flow from the country’s export facilities, potentially raising the prospects of an increase in oil and natural gas revenues from state-owned entities like Gazprom PJSC. Bar chart showing Russian LNG exports by destination continent over the last six years. Europe’s LNG imports from Russia increased 20% in the first nine months of the year, compared with a 14% rise during the same period last year, according to Kpler data. The European Union’s (EU) investment ban last summer prohibited new investments and services in Russian LNG projects. The bloc would reduce the transshipment of Russian LNG via EU ports effective March 2025, but there still has been no EU-wide ban on Russian LNG.

Germany rejects arrival of Russian LNG shipment at Brunsbuttel terminal - Germany has refused to allow a Russian liquefied natural gas shipment at the Brunsbuttel terminal in northern Germany in line with Berlin's policy not to import LNG from Russia. The Financial Times reported earlier on Thursday that Germany's economy ministry BMWK had instructed the Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept any deliveries of Russian LNG after the company informed Berlin that its Brunsbuttel import facility was set to receive a Russian cargo on Sunday. It was not clear who ordered the shipment. Three LNG tankers recently left the Yamal LNG facility in Russia and are awaiting orders, LSEG data showed. "The cargo was destined for Brunsbuttel and someone tried its luck and it seems wanted to check how Berlin would react," an industry source told Reuters, adding that this is "a bit of political PR stunt". Germany, Europe's largest economy and once Russia's largest importer of natural gas, has never directly imported Russian LNG and has stopped buying Russian pipeline gas following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It has relied on LNG from the United States and elsewhere as well as on pipeline gas from Norway to replace Russian gas. "Germany does not import Russian gas as a matter of principle and it is also clear to the BMWK that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," a BMWK spokesperson said. In February, a spokesperson for the ministry said that German companies that import LNG or move it to Germany have committed to ensuring that no Russian LNG goes to Germany when they buy on the market. A Reuters analysis of data in April found that more than a tenth of the Russian gas formerly shipped by pipeline to the European Union has been replaced by LNG delivered to EU ports, mainly in Spain, Belgium, and France. While Germany no longer directly imports Russian gas, it is an ultimate destination for some of the Russian gas that is injected into pipelines by some other EU countries via Belgium's Zeebrugge and other terminals. Last year, Germany imported 48.6% of its gas via pipeline from Belgium, France and the Netherlands, according to the federal network regulator Bundesnetzagentur.

UPDATE: Austria says Russia to cut off gas from Saturday - Russia told Austria it is suspending gas deliveries from Saturday in a development that signals a fast approaching end of Moscow's last remaining gas flows to Europe. The suspension means Russia will now only supply significant gas volumes to Hungary and Slovakia, in stark contrast with the decades of dominance that saw it meet 40% of the EU's gas needs before Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Austria was the first western European country to buy Russian gas when the USSR signed a gas contract in 1968, just months before the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. This year, the relationship will end following a contractual dispute between Russia's Gazprom and Austria's OMV. In a notice published on the central European gas hub platform, OMV said Gazprom told it supply would stop on Saturday. Gazprom declined to comment. Austria is one of the few European countries still dependent on Russian gas as much of the rest of the continent has reduced imports following the invasion of Ukraine. OMV said it has been preparing for the eventual cut-off of Russian gas and it can still deliver gas to its customers by importing via Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. "We still expect this will exacerbate an energy crisis in Austria that has caused its gas demand to drop significantly, and has hit its manufacturing sector," said analysts at Eurointelligence. "Austria's economy is currently stuck in recession. Germany is sneezing, and Austria is catching the cold," they added. Germany was also heavily reliant on Russian gas before the war, but shipments ceased when the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were blown up in 2022. The notification of the end of supplies to Austria came as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany - Russia's biggest gas customer until Moscow's forces invaded Ukraine - held their first phone conversation since December 2022. Russia was ready to look at energy deals if Berlin was interested, the Kremlin said. "It was emphasized that Russia has always strictly fulfilled its treaty and contractual obligations in the energy sector and is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation if the German side shows interest in this," the Kremlin said. Russia shipped about 15 Bm3 of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - representing only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018–2019, according to data compiled by Reuters. In 2023, the transit route met 65% of gas demand in Austria and its eastern neighbors Hungary and Slovakia, according to the International Energy Agency. Ukraine has said it doesn't plan to extend the transit agreement into 2025, which would have meant the loss of gas for Austria and Slovakia. Hungary no longer gets much gas via Ukraine and imports volumes via the TurkStream pipeline which runs along the bed of the Black Sea. Slovakia still gets Russian gas via Ukraine. EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson told Reuters on the sidelines of a UN climate conference in Azerbaijan that all EU countries receiving gas via the Ukraine route have access to other supply sources that could fill the gap. "We have been very clear that alternative supply is available and there is no need for the continuation of Russian gas transiting via Ukraine to Europe," Simson said.

Russia Weighs Plan to Merge Biggest Oil Companies, WSJ Reports -- Russian officials and business executives have held talks about merging the country’s biggest oil companies into a single producer, the Wall Street Journal reported.Under one potential plan, state-backed Rosneft PJSC would take over Gazprom Neft and Lukoil PJSC, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people familiar with the discussions. The talks, which have taken place over the past few months, aren’t guaranteed to result in a deal, and plans could change, the people said.Lukoil and Gazprom Neft did not immediately respond to emails sent outside of regular business hours. Rosneft’s press service doesn’t accept requests over the weekend.A Rosneft spokesman told the WSJ that the reporting was false according to the information available to him, and said in an email to the paper that the article “may be aimed at creating competitive market advantages in the interests of other market participants.”A Lukoil spokesman said neither the company nor its shareholders were engaged in merger negotiations, while spokesmen for Gazprom Neft and Gazprom PJSC didn’t respond to requests for comment, according to the WSJ. A Kremlin spokesperson told the paper he had no knowledge of a deal. If such a deal was reached, the company would be the world’s largest crude producer after Saudi Aramco, according to the report.

Nigeria’s petrol imports surged in October – OPEC -- The volume of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) imported into Nigeria surged in October, a report by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Company says. This is despite the fact that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery started producing petrol in September this year. OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report, said though petrol import still remains at a 60 per cent low when compared to the same period in 2023, there was an increase in the quantity of PMS imported between September and October 2024. Recall that some vessels arrived on the shores of Nigeria to discharge PMS, especially at a time when marketers were at loggerheads with the Dangote refinery. It was learned that petrol import into Nigeria and West Africa came majorly from Europe during the month under review. Quoting Argus, OPEC said, “Gasoline exports to West Africa strengthened and compensated for a drop in flows to the US. Exports to Nigeria were reported to have surged compared to the level registered in September despite still remaining 60 per cent lower, year-on-year.” The report disclosed that PMS crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent increased as PMS exports from Europe rose in October. Additional European PMS volumes were said to have been shipped to Libya and Saudi Arabia in October as well. The international organisation maintained that new product volumes entering international markets from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, China’s Yulong petrochemical, and Mexico’s Olmeca refinery “are set to lengthen product balances going forward, particularly for gasoline.” Reuters earlier reports that about a third of Europe’s 1.33 million barrels per day average petrol exports in 2023 went to West Africa, a bigger chunk than any other region, with most of those exports ending up in Nigeria. It noted that the 650,000-capacity Dangote refinery could end a decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth $17bn a year.Imperial Oil fined for 2021 'slop oil' spill in Sarnia | The Sarnia Observer -- Imperial Oil was fined $900,000 and ordered to pay a $225,000 victim surcharge after being convicted under the Environmental Protection Act of discharging “slop oil” in April 2021. The company pleaded guilty Sept. 16 in Sarnia court to one violation under the act, the Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks said Wednesday in a court bulletin on its website. “We regret this incident, and we accept the fine imposed by the court,” Imperial Oil said in a statement. Imperial has a refinery in Sarnia with steam tracer lines to keep its pipelines warm and leaks in the tracer lines are relatively common, the ministry said. The company discovered a leak in January 2021 in a tracer line along an elevated pipeline containing slop oil, a waste product typically composed of crude oil, water and waste solids that contains various contaminants which may include hydrogen sulphide, the ministry said. Imperial avoids conducting steam tracer line repairs in winter because of the risk of pipelines freezing and splitting and may schedule repairs for warmer weather. Steam tracer line leaks are categorized in three levels to determine priority for repairs, based on factors including urgency, repair time, resources and forecasted temperatures, the ministry said. The January 2021 leak was designated a second level priority and repairs were planned for March 2021 but in April of that year it was discovered steam escaping from the tracer leak had bored a hole in the nearby pipeline resulting in a spill, according to the ministry. The company said workers at the Sarnia site responded on April 15 to an incident involving a leak from a pipeline to a tank containment area and approximately 1,150 litres of slop oil was discharged. The spill was contained on site, the company said.

India to drive global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025: EIA -- India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on late Wednesday. Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% total oil demand growth globally, the EIA said in its November Short Term Energy Outlook. “We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the agency said. Next (LON:NXT) year, global oil consumption is likely to rise by a further 1.2 million barrels per day, it said in the report. The US energy agency said that the growth in global oil demand projected for both 2024 and 2025 will be below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.5 million barrels per day of annual growth. The projected growth for this year and the next will also be lower than what was seen in the pandemic recovery period between 2021 and 2023. Most of the growth is seen from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development alliance. In India, oil demand is likely to increase by 300,000 barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, the EIA said. This will be driven by rising demand for transportation fuels. “We forecast China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by less than 0.1 million b/d in 2024 before recovering to almost 0.3 million b/d 2025,” the agency said.

Mathura refinery blast: Indian Oil refinery explosion injures 12 people - A major explosion occurred at the Indian Oil Corporation refinery on the Agra-Delhi National Highway on Tuesday, according to police. The incident has left at least 12 people injured. Eyewitnesses described hearing a loud blast followed by towering flames rising from the refinery in Mathura, with the fire visible from several kilometers away. The explosion occurred around 8:30 pm while the main plant was being restarted after a month-and-a-half-long shutdown. According to initial reports, 10 to 12 workers were injured in the fire, with four in critical condition, police said. The injured were initially treated at the refinery’s hospital. However, the four critically injured individuals were later transferred to a private hospital in the city for further care. While the refinery administration and district authorities have not yet released an official statement, Inspector Sonu Kumar from the refinery police station confirmed the incident. The explosion was heard between 8:30 pm and 9:00 pm, injuring several workers near the main plant, Inspector Kumar reported. Initially, the refinery attempted to control the fire internally and, after containing the blaze, notified local authorities, he added. The injured were first treated on-site, but four critically injured workers were admitted to the ICU at City Institute of Medical Sciences (CIMS) Hospital. All affected workers are currently reported to be in stable condition, with those in critical condition under close monitoring, Kumar said. In a statement, Renu Pathak, Senior Corporate Manager of Mathura Refinery, said about 12 people were injured in the incident. “The management of the refinery has ordered a probe to determine the cause of the explosion,” she said, PTI reported. According to Pathak, one employee suffered 50 per cent burn injuries, while two others sustained 20 per cent burn injuries. The remaining five workers, with relatively minor injuries, are currently receiving treatment at the refinery’s hospital. She added that the situation is now under control, and the fire is fully extinguished.

Indian Oil says fire at refinery fully extinguished, death toll climbs to two (Reuters) - Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), opens new tab said on Tuesday a fire at its Gujarat refinery had been fully extinguished and refinery operations were back to normal, even as the death toll rose to two. Officials had earlier said that one person was killed and two others injured in the fire that broke out on Monday in a benzene storage tank at the company's integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in the western state of Gujarat. The blaze later spread to a second tank. "The second victim was a canteen worker in the refinery and received severe injuries...He died last night," AB Mori, the inspector of the Jawaharnagar police station, told Reuters on Tuesday. The company, in a statement, also confirmed the rise in the death toll and said remaining personnel, plant, and machinery were safe. "Expert teams are reaching site for assessment," it said.

OPEC+ Faces Double Trouble: China Demand Weakness And Trump's Policies -The OPEC+ group has struggled to manage oil supply and prices this year. First, there was overproduction from several members, undermining the cuts from the other producers in the pact.Then came the summer and the first actual consumption data for the first and second quarters of the year, showing that China’s oil demand growth is nowhere near OPEC’s expectations. Toward the end of the year, just as the cartel and its allies announced they would postpone the start of the easing of the production cuts to January 2025, they now have the wildest card on the market of all—President-elect Donald Trump.China’s weak oil demand has already thrown OPEC+ off track in its supply-management policies and continues to defy OPEC forecasts with underwhelming crude consumption and imports.The group now has to contend with some policies President-elect Trump has promised to introduce, including easier permitting for fossil fuel projects, import tariffs, and a more rigid stance toward Iran.China has already undermined the OPEC+ alliance’s policy. The group is cutting production, but demand has been weaker than expected amid slower Chinese economic growth, the property crisis undermining construction activities and diesel consumption, and the surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales and registrations of LNG-fueled trucks. OPEC has been wrong-footed by the surge in electric mobility in China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2024 report last month.In October, OPEC cut its 2024 global oil demand forecast in the third consecutive monthly report, citing actual consumption data so far this year and expectations of slightly lower demand in some regions, including China.In each report since August, OPEC has signaled that its estimates of Chinese oil demand growth were too optimistic when it published the first outlook for 2024 in July 2023.Despite the optimistic long-term view, OPEC’s short-term demand outlook on China has been revised down, again.Weaker-than-expected oil consumption in China and rising electric vehicle sales will continue to weigh on the world’s oil demand growth going forward, according to the IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol. “This year, global oil demand is very weak, much weaker than previous years, and we expect this will continue because of one word — China,” Birol told Bloomberg in an interview last month.

OPEC Oil Production Jumps by 470,000 Bpd as Libyan Output Returns -The return of Libya’s oil production to full capacity raised the total OPEC output by 466,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October from September, the cartel’s monthly report showed on Tuesday, less than two months ahead of a planned reversal of part of the cuts.Total crude oil production in all 12 OPEC members averaged 26.53 million bpd in October 2024, up by 466,000 bpd compared to September, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report published today.Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Nigeria and Congo, while production in Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait decreased, OPEC said.Libya saw a jump of 556,000 bpd in its production last month after the political impasse that had halted more than half of its output was resolved.Libya had most of its output halted for the whole month of September, and its oil production was decimated after the country’s two rival administrations locked horns over the appointment of a new central bank governor.Following the resolution of this latest crisis, Libyan oil production resumed in early October and is now estimated to have exceeded pre-crisis levels and hit 1.3 million bpd.Iran’s oil production, on the other hand, dropped by 68,000 bpd in October, per OPEC’s secondary sources.Awaiting a retaliatory strike from Israel, the Islamic Republic reduced output and alsoexports last month.Early last month, Iranian oil tankers were spotted moving away from Kharg Island, Iran’s biggest oil export terminal, amid fears of an imminent Israeli attack on the most important crude export infrastructure in Iran. Israel opted for a limited strike on Iran, which has somewhat defused tensions in the region, for now.Elsewhere among OPEC’s producers, Saudi Arabia, the top producer in the cartel, saw its output stable at just below 9 million bpd—as the Kingdom pledged more than a year ago.OPEC is set to begin reversing the production cuts in January 2025, market conditions permitting.

Oil Slides on US Dollar Strength, Chinese Demand Woes-- Oil futures extended their decline Monday morning, as the U.S. dollar index strengthened to a four-month high and Chinese stimulus measures fell short of expectations.China's Standing Committee of the National People's Congress concluded its week-long meeting Friday with the announcement of a $1.4 trillion debt package geared toward alleviating the growing liquidity crisis of local governments burdened by high debt and falling revenues, and did not include any direct stimulus measures to boost consumption. This further dimmed outlooks on Chinese oil demand growth which had trailed expectations for most of the year.The package should ease deflationary pressures brought upon local government spending cuts but fails to address those brought upon lackluster domestic consumption. Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed consumer price inflation in October slowing to 0.3% year-on-year, with prices falling 0.3% from September. Producer price deflation, meanwhile, accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year, the steepest in 11 months.The U.S. dollar index reached a four-month high 105.5 on Monday, further pressuring USD denominated commodities. Friday's rally had already erased most gains spurred by OPEC+ postponing a planned output hike. The producer group, which had banked on its largest consumer to drive oil demand growth, slightly lowered growth expectations last month but remained much more bullish than the IEA and EIA. OPEC's monthly oil market report is scheduled for release Tuesday, with EIA's short-term energy outlook following Wednesday and IEA's monthly oil report Thursday. Near 9:45 a.m. EST, WTI for December delivery was trading near $68.53 barrel (bbl), down $1.85, and Brent for January delivery was down $1.77 near $72.10 bbl. December RBOB fell $0.0423 gal to $1.9702, and December ULSD retreated $0.0374 gal to $2.2015.

Oil Market Recap: Factors Affecting Bearish Sentiment -- The oil market settled lower Monday as a confluence of factors kept the bears in control of this market. A surging dollar, coupled with poor near term heating demand, and disappointing economic data continuing to come out of China helped the oil markets basically match or exceed the losses recorded on Friday. In just the past two trading sessions, the spot WTI contracts have lost $4.32 per barrel in value while the spot distillate and gasoline contracts dropped by 8.88 cents and 9.66 cents respectively.The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service updated their winter season temperature outlook on Monday. The weather forecasting service sees a probability of at least 60% that northern Europe and the Mediterranean will experience above normal temperatures between December and February. Forecasters noted that no section of Europe is expected to see seasonal temperatures to be below normal. Forecasters see both Japan and the northeastern U.S. facing a 70-100% probability for temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming December-February period. Hurricane Rafael is no longer threatening production areas in the Gulf of Mexico as the storm had dissipated over the past weekend. The National Hurricane Center currently is watching an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea which is associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. There is a 50% chance that a tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend as it moves toward the western Caribbean Sea. Longer term, forecasters do not expect additional tropical development in the Atlantic basin as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be moving through a Phase 2-3 event over the next 8-14 day period and beyond.The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported this afternoon that some 26% of offshore crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or 449,541 b/d still remained shut in from the result of closures due to Hurricane Rafael’s passage through the Gulf of Mexico.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 557,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 15^th, raising available refining capacity by 85,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 399,000 bpd in the week ending November 22^nd.Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -0.4% week on week to 61.78 million barrels in the week ending November 8^th.

Oil falls on Chinese stimulus disappointment, supply outlook (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday after China's latest stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking demand growth in the world's second-biggest oil consumer, while supply looked set to rise in 2025. Brent crude futures settled at $71.83 a barrel, down$2.04 or 2.76%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $68.04 a barrel, down $2.34, or 3.32%.Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.Donald Trump's U.S. election victory may continue to affect the market, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group."The election with Trump's promise to 'drill, baby, drill' has taken away some incentive to go long," Flynn said.The U.S. dollar index , a measure of its value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, slightly overshot the highs seen right after last week'sU.S. presidential election, with markets still waiting for clarity about future U.S. policy.A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the U.S. currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy."Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory ... Chinese economic momentum remains negative," said Achilleas Georgolopoulos. Bank of America Securities said in a note on Monday that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026."Meaningful non-OPEC growth next year and an unconvincing Chinese stimulus package likely mean inventories will swell even without OPEC+ increases," Bank of America noted. In late September, OPEC+ said it would boost supply in December by 180,000 bpd, but earlier this month an agreement was reached among the member and allied countries to postpone the supply expansion until January.The U.S. offshore production regulator said 25.7% of crude oil production and 13% natural gas output remains shut because of Hurricane Rafael, which by Monday broke apart and was only a remnant storm in the central Gulf of Mexico.

OPEC's Latest Downward Revision for Demand Growth - The crude market settled in a sideways trading range after trading lower in follow through selling seen in the previous two sessions as the market weighed OPEC’s latest downward revision for demand growth, a stronger U.S. dollar and disappointment over China’s stimulus plan announced on Friday. The crude market breached its previous low and posted a low of $67.75 in overnight trading. However, the market recovered some of its losses only to trade back down towards the $68.00 level in light of OPEC cutting its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also cutting its projection for next year. The oil market later rallied to a high of $69.13 by mid-morning. However, the market seesawed back towards the lower end of its trading range and settled in a 50 cent trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 8 cents at $68.12 and the December Brent contract settled up 6 cents at $71.89. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.32 cents at $2.2108 and the RB market settling up 73 points at $1.9643. OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and lowered its projection for next year, highlighting China, India and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth consecutive downward revision. In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand will increase by 1.82 million bpd in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd previously forecast. China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year on year for a seventh consecutive month. OPEC, which is still at the top end of industry estimates after the revision, also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. The report also showed that OPEC’s output is increasing, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ produced 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Meanwhile, Iraq cut its output by 66,000 barrels to 4.068 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota. OPEC said Russia’s crude oil output increased in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd. This was slightly above the quota agreed by the OPEC+ group. Under OPEC+ deals and voluntary cuts, Russia’s monthly quota stands at 8.98 million bpd. Russia has pledged to compensate for its overproduction since April with reductions in October and November this year and between March and September next year.The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that more than a 10% or 183,992 bpd of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 3% or 59 million cubic feet of natural gas output remained offline in the aftermath of post-tropical cyclone Rafael.BloombergNEF is estimating that net oil refining capacity globally is set to grow by 4.7 million b/d over the next six years outpacing the expected growth in consumption. S&P Commodity Insights estimates that for the week ending November 8^th U.S. crude oil exports stood at 3.13 million b/d.

Oil prices hold near 2-week low after OPEC cuts demand view, dollar rises (Reuters) - Oil prices held near a two-week low on Tuesday after dropping about 5% over the past two sessions as investors absorbed OPEC's latest downward revision for demand growth, a stronger U.S. dollar and disappointment over China's latest stimulus plan.Brent futures were up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $71.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $68.12.On Monday, both crude benchmarks settled at their lowest prices since Oct. 29. "A normal tendency in crude following a sharp drop would be a recovery back to about the middle of the prior day's range within a couple of sessions," OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also lowered its projection for next year, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision. The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. This month, the group postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices."With China's demand remaining lackluster, supply-side tinkering by OPEC is not having the desired impact other than to maintain the Brent price floor at $70," said Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London.OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth forecast of 1.93 million bpd last month.The group also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.OPEC remains at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view. OPEC's forecast on robust growth in China is "at odds with other forecasters, who have considerably reduced their end-2024 estimates on China's poor macroeconomic performance and disappointing fiscal stimulus," On Friday, China unveiled a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4-trillion) debt package to ease local government financing strains. Republican former President Donald Trump, who won the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, has threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods.Analysts said China's plan fell short of the amount needed to boost economic growth.Another factor that could limit oil demand growth is the foreign policy team Trump is putting together. Trump is expected to tap U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, sources said. Rubio has in past years advocated for a muscular foreign policy with respect to America's geopolitical foes, including China, Iran and Cuba."The foreign policy team (including possibly Rubio) is being brought in to tighten the screws on China, which will threaten oil demand growth from the largest oil importing country on the planet," Also weighing on oil prices, the U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high versus a basket of currencies as investors kept piling into trades seen benefiting from Trump's victory.A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand.In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, investor morale clouded over this month, an economic research institute said, as Trump's election and the collapse of the German government unleashed added uncertainty over Germany's already ailing economy.Protectionist policies from the incoming U.S. administration will hamper global growth and Europe must be better prepared than in 2018,European Central Bank policymakers said.

Crude prices rise on temporary supply tightness in physical market | S&P Global Commodity Insights --Crude oil futures rose in midmorning trading in Asia on Nov. 13, as short-term supply tightness in the physical market prompted buyers to secure any available cargoes, supported by OPEC's relatively bullish global oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Overnight, the NYMEX December WTI settled 8 cents, or 0.12%, higher at $68.12/b, and the ICE January Brent climbed 6 cents, or 0.08%, to settle at $71.89/b, remaining relatively steady in the US open. At 11.53 am Singapore time (0353 GMT), the ICE January Brent futures contract rose 18 cents/b (0.25%) from the previous close to $72.07/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract was up 15 cents/b (0.22%) at $68.27/b. "Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand," Previously, pessimism weighed on the crude complex, as concerns over the potential imposition of new US tariffs on China compounded disappointment over Beijing's recent stimulus measures, which failed to boost sentiment in the flatlining economy of the world's largest crude importer."Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly. This has supported the Dated Brent benchmark, despite futures prices in WTI suggesting an oil glut is looming," OPEC trimmed its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fourth time in as many months, days after punting plans to start tapering 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts into January, although the bloc remains far more bullish than many other forecasters.In its closely watched monthly oil market report released Nov. 12, OPEC projected global demand to grow by 1.82 million b/d in 2024 -- down 110,000 b/d month over month and 430,000 b/d lower than its July forecast -- to 104.03 million b/d.Meanwhile, OPEC forecast that global oil consumption will rise by 1.54 million b/d in 2025, down from its October estimate of 1.64 million b/d.Although OPEC has revised its demand forecasts downward in recent months, it remains significantly more optimistic than other forecasters, with the estimated "call" on OPEC+ crude -- the quantity the alliance must produce to balance the market -- well above current production levels."[OPEC] attributed the change to weakening demand in China and India. Nevertheless, its outlook remains relatively bullish compared with other major agencies, such as the IEA [International Energy Agency]. In some cases, its demand growth forecast is almost double the rate," Martin and Hynes said. Meanwhile, attention has shifted back to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as the global market waits for President-elect Donald Trump's new cabinet appointments for his second term in the Oval Office. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East policy remains uncertain, but former US officials said Nov. 12 that his penchant for deal-making and stated opposition to international conflict could help ease tensions with Iran. "Trump is inherently unpredictable, and his first term is no indication for his second term," Ryan Cocker, former US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan and Lebanon, said. "His Middle East agenda remains a mystery, possibly even to him at the moment." "Newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known for his hardline stance on Iran and support for Israel, could bring a new layer of geopolitical tension to the energy markets," As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East potentially simmer, the likelihood of supply disruptions may rise, providing some support to the crude complex. "Heightened pressure on Iran could lead to supply disruptions, ramping up the stakes for oil traders navigating this volatile environment,"

Prices Continued to Trend Lower in Follow Through Selling - On Wednesday, the oil market retraced its earlier losses on some short covering after prices continued to trend lower in follow through selling seen in the last few trading sessions. Early in the session, the market posted a high of $68.86 before it sold off to a low of $66.94 as it breached its previous low of $67.75 and its support line at $67.52. The crude market remained pressured by the OPEC report released on Tuesday showing lower global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025 amid demand concerns in China. The market also pressured amid the strength in the U.S. dollar, which traded to a near seven month high after data showed U.S. inflation for October increased by 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year, in line with expectations, suggesting the Fed will keep cutting rates. However, the market later bounced off its low and traded back towards its high in afternoon trading. The December WTI contract settled up 31 cents at $68.43 and the January Brent contract settled up 39 cents at $72.28. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 85 points at $2.2193 and the RB market settling up 8 points at $1.9651. In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reported world oil consumption in 2024 is expected to increase by 990,000 bpd to 103.13 million bpd and increase by 1.22 million bpd in 2025 to 104.35 million bpd. Meanwhile, world oil output in 2024 is forecast to increase by 600,000 barrels to 102.62 million bpd and by 2.04 million bpd to 104.66 million bpd in 2025. The EIA also reported that U.S. output is forecast to increase by 300,000 bpd to 13.23 million bpd in 2024 and by 300,000 bpd to 13.53 million bpd in 2025. U.S. total petroleum products consumption in 2024 is forecast to increase by 40,000 bpd to 20.32 million bpd and by 190,000 bpd to 20.51 million bpd in 2025. U.S. gasoline demand is expected to remain unchanged in 2024 at 8.94 million bpd and fall by 20,000 bpd to 8.92 million bpd in 2025, while distillate demand is expected to fall by 100,000 bpd to 3.82 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 150,000 bpd to 3.97 million bpd in 2025.Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts. Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS said oil prices could fall to $30 to $40/barrel if OPEC unwinds its output cuts and does not have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. The head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, Henning Gloystein, said that given that oil demand growth next year probably would not be much more than 1 million bpd, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep decline in crude prices, possibly towards $40 a barrel.” Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since COVID.”IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 563,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 15^th, raising available refining capacity by 79,000 bpd.Enbridge said Tuesday apportionment on its Canadian Mainline crude oil system has been reinstated for November at 2% for both light and heavy barrels. The Mainline has been apportioned for every month this year except September and October due to industry turnarounds. Enbridge said it is ongoing discussions with producers for adding additional 100,000-150,000 b/d pipeline capacity out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with an estimated in-service date of late 2026 or early 2027.

Oil rebounds slightly on short-covering as strong dollar caps gains (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday on short-covering a day after they fell near a two-week low on OPEC's reduced demand forecast, but gains were limited as the dollar hit a seven-month high.Brent crude futures settled up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.28 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.43.On Tuesday, the benchmarks closed at their lowest level in nearly two weeks after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing weak demand in China, India, and other regions. It was the producer group's fourth straight downward revision for 2024."The forecast is no doubt bearish and the market is still digesting it," , adding the market bounced back as some speculative investors tried to recoup losses.Both U.S. and global oil production are set to rise to slightly larger record highs this year than prior forecasts, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.U.S. oil output is now expected to average 13.23 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and global production is set to reach 102.6 million bpd.The International Energy Agency, which has a much lower demand growth forecast than OPEC's, is set to publish its updated estimate on Thursday.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have underscored the importance of continuing a "close coordination" within OPEC+ during a phone call on Wednesday, also providing some support.On the supply side, markets could still face disruption from Iran or further conflict between Iran and Israel."If this war continues, Israel is eventually going to attack Iranian oil assets," said Clay Seigle, an independent political risk strategist. "This could be limited to Iran's refineries, but Israeli planners may be more ambitious and go for production and export facilities," he said.Trump's expected pick for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, could be bullish for prices as his hawkish view on Iran could see sanctions enforced, potentially removing 1.3 million bpd from global supply, . Iran's oil minister said Tehran had made plans to sustain oil production and exports and was ready for possible oil curbs by the U.S., the ministry's news website Shana reported.Limiting oil price gains, the dollar advanced to near a seven-month high against major currencies after data showed U.S. inflation for October increased in line with expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.U.S. crude stocks fell by 777,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. That compares with a forecast by analysts polled by Reuters for a 100,000-barrel build. Government data is due on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET. Both reports were delayed a day due to Monday's Veterans Day holiday.

Oil Prices Decline Due to a Stronger Dollar and Concerns Over Increased Production After Trump’s Election Victory - Oil prices fell in early trading Thursday, reversing most of the previous session’s gains due to a stronger dollar and concerns about higher global output amid sluggish demand growth forecasts. Brent crude futures dropped 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.83 per barrel by 0726 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 48 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.95 per barrel. “The main driver of oil prices, both in the near term and longer term, will be the direction of the U.S. dollar,” said Danish Lim, an investment analyst at Phillip Nova, adding that recent supply and demand dynamics have been putting downward pressure on prices. Lim noted that the dollar’s recent rally has been a key factor, predicting that oil markets will remain volatile, though with a bearish tilt. The U.S. dollar surged to a one-year high, extending Wednesday’s gains after hitting a seven-month high against major currencies, following data showing U.S. inflation in October rose in line with expectations. This, in turn, raised concerns about slowing demand in the United States. The market is a “mix of weak demand factors,” with recent worries including a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and an increase in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to 2.35%, “This increases the odds of a shallow Fed interest rate cut cycle going into 2025, meaning there is less liquidity to drive an increase in oil demand,” he added. On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for U.S. oil output slightly, to an average of 13.23 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up 300,000 bpd from last year’s record 12.93 million bpd, and higher than an earlier estimate of 13.22 million bpd. The agency also increased its global oil output forecast for 2024 to 102.6 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 102.5 million bpd, and expects global output of 104.7 million bpd in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 104.5 million bpd. The EIA’s oil demand growth forecasts are weaker than those of OPEC, projecting about 1 million bpd in 2024, though that is up from its earlier estimate of about 900,000 bpd. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market report is expected later today. With demand slowing in China, there are few supply-demand factors currently supporting bullish oil markets, noted independent analyst Tina Teng. Markets were also assessing the potential impact of Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win on oil prices, according to some analysts. “While the near-term impact is likely limited, the possibility of friendlier ties with the Middle East, potential production increases from OPEC+, reduced geopolitical risks, and an overall more favorable drilling environment in the U.S. all put a cap on oil price sentiment,” said Suvro Sarkar, sector lead for DBS Bank’s energy team. The potential for Trump’s win to slow global economic growth and dampen demand in China adds further bearish sentiment, said Teng.

WTI Dips After Crude Inventories Build To Highest In 3 Months - Oil price are trading higher this morning after treading water for two days (lower than pre-election) following API's report of a (unexpected) small crude inventory draw and despite a strong dollar. However, the IEA on Thursday warned that the oil market faces a surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day next year,which could swell further if OPEC+ decides to press ahead with supply hikes."World oil supply is rising at a healthy clip. Following the early November US elections, we continue to expect the United States to lead non-OPEC+ supply growth of 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, along with higher output from Canada, Guyana and Argentina," the report noted." ... Total growth from the five American producers will more than cover expected demand growth in 2024 and 2025 ... Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 mb/d next year."In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday the Energy Information Administration also predicted supply will exceed demand beginning in the second quarter of next year. API

• Crude -800k
• Cushing -1.9mm
• Gasoline +300k
• Distillates +1.1mm

DOE:

• Crude +2.09mm
• Cushing -688k
• Gasoline -4.41mm
• Distillates -1.39mm

US Crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week according to the official DOE data (as opposed to the small draw reported by API). Product inventories tumbled though (as did stocks at the Cushing hub)...Total US crude stocks are back at their highest since early August...

Oil settles slightly higher, investors focus on steep draw in fuel stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices closed slightly higher in choppy trading on Thursday, as a steep draw in U.S. fuel stocks outweighed oversupply concerns and demand worries stemming from a stronger dollar.Brent crude futures settled 28 cents, or 0.4% higher at $72.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4% at $68.70. Both benchmarks had briefly dipped into negative territory during the trading session.Brent was on track to lose about 1.7% for the week, while WTI was set to end the week over 2% lower due to a stronger U.S. dollar and worries about rising supply amid slow demand growth.U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel build. The stockpile of 206.9 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 8 was the lowest since November 2022. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 200,000-barrel rise. U.S. gasoline futures settled 0.8% higher, while heating oil futures closed down about 0.3% after briefly spiking on the data. Capping oil-price gains, however, was a 2.1-million barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories last week, much more than analysts' expectations for a 750,000-barrel rise. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, as rising production from the U.S. and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.The Paris-based agency raised its 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 bpd, and left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 bpd.The premium of the front month WTI contract over the second month contract also narrowed this week to its smallest since June. The narrowing of the premium, or backwardation, indicates that a perception of tight supply for prompt delivery has eased.The dollar surged to a one-year high, and headed for a fifth-straight daily gain fuelled by higher yields and President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in the United States.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.A rally in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and a surge in the 10-year break-even inflation rate to 2.35% added to demand worries, "(This) increases the odds of a shallow Fed interest-rate-cut cycle heading into 2025 (and) overall, there is less liquidity to stoke an increase in demand for oil," OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and next, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth-consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook."Crude futures are trying to establish an equilibrium pricing, as a rising U.S. dollar index is creating a further headwind, along with a Trump administration that will now have control of Congress, which is likely to roll back most of the Biden administration's energy policies," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said in a note. Brent crude is expected to average $80 across 2025, down from a forecast at the end of September for $85, UBS Switzerland AG's oil strategist Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note, citing lowered demand growth estimates, particularly from China."Overall, we see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year," Staunovo said.

Oil settles down 2% on weaker Chinese demand, uncertainty over Fed rate cut (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than 2% on Friday as investors fretted about weaker Chinese demand and a potential slowing in the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Brent crude futures settled down $1.52, or 2.09%, to $71.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.68, or 2.45%, at $67.02.For the week, Brent fell around 4%, while WTI declined around 5%. China's oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier because of plant closures and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. The country's factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating, adding to investors' concerns over the economic health of the world's largest crude importer. "The headwinds out of China are persisting, and whatever stimulus they put forward could be damaged by a new round of tariffs by the Trump administration," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end China's most-favored-nation trading status and impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% - much higher than those imposed during his first term. Goldman Sachs Research economists have modestly lowered their 2025 growth forecast for China, the bank said in a note, following on expectations of significant tariff increases under Trump.“However, we would likely make larger downgrades if the trade war were to escalate further,” Goldman Sachs Research chief economist, Jan Hatzius said in the note.Oil prices also fell this week as major forecasters indicated slowing global demand growth."Global oil demand is getting weaker," said International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol on Friday at the COP29 summit."We have been seeing this for some time and this is mainly driven by the slowing Chinese economic growth and the increasing penetration of electric cars around the world."The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.OPEC, meanwhile, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions. U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting the economy kicked off the fourth quarter on a strong note."The economic data this morning was strong and notable so that is keeping things somewhat stable with regard to what the U.S. demand picture should be," Again Capital's Kilduff said.The data added to the debate among Federal Reserve policymakers over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts as investors further downgraded their expectations for a rate reduction at the central bank's December meeting.Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth, aiding fuel demand.Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, however, did not rule out a December rate cut when speaking on Bloomberg's television channel."Looking at those numbers, there is nothing forcing the Fed to get real crazy about it, I think the odds for a 25 basis rate cut for December have dropped to between high 50s-60%," said chief economist at Matador Economics, Tim Snyder. "I wouldn't be surprised if we do not see anything in December, and have to wait and see how the year ends," Snyder added.

Oil prices fall for the week on bets for a 'looming surplus,' soft China demand - Oil futures settled at their lowest in over two months Friday with expectations for a supply surplus next year, strength in the U.S. dollar, and continued worries over demand from China - the world's largest crude importer - prompting prices to post a loss for the week.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for December delivery CL.1 CLZ24 fell $1.68, or nearly 2.5%, to settle at $67.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices based on the front month contract settled at their lowest since Sept. 10 and logged a weekly fall of 4.8%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- January Brent crude BRN00 BRNF25, the global benchmark, shed $1.52, or 2.1%, at $71.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It saw a weekly decline of 3.8% and settled at the lowest since Sept. 11.
• -- December gasoline RBZ24 fell 1.6% to $1.9493 a gallon, for a loss of 3.1% for the week, while December heating oil HOZ24 lost 1.9% to $2.1709 a gallon, posting a weekly loss of 3%.
• -- Natural gas for December delivery NGZ24 settled at $2.823 per million British thermal units, up 1.4% for the session and up 5.8% for the week.

Oil prices fell against a backdrop of a "looming surplus, even as the U.S. appears headed for a soft landing," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.He pointed out that even if the group of major oil producers known as OPEC+ continues to extend production cuts, the International Energy Agency has predicted that supply will exceed demand by 1 million barrels next year.Saudi Arabia seems to be "getting more unhappy" with the countries that are producing oil above their quotas - primarily Iraq and the U.A.E. - which "raises the possibility of a price war," Lynch told MarketWatch.Strength in the dollar also contributed to oil's losses this week. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was on track for a 1.6% weekly rise and traded at its highest in a year. A rising dollar can be a negative for commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies.Investors also have been weighing the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's agenda, which ranges from efforts to increase domestic oil production to tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran. Trump's biggest impact will be internationally, said Lynch. "If he tightens enforcement of Iranian sanctions, that could take 1 [million barrels of oil per day] off the market, supporting the current price level," but if he undermines sanctions on Russia, that would largely offset the lower Iranian supplies.'Fears about economic instability in the U.S. as Trump upends the government, combined with Chinese economic weakness, suggest that $70 might be a ceiling' for U.S. oil prices for now Michael Lynch, Strategic Energy & Economic ResearchLooking ahead, "fears about economic instability in the U.S. as Trump upends the government, combined with Chinese economic weakness, suggest that $70 might be a ceiling" for U.S. oil prices for now, said Lynch.Government data from China showed refinery throughput fell 4.6% year-over-year in October, according to Reuters.Some of the reduced refining capacity can be attributed to refinery maintenance season coming to a close, Alex Hodes, director of energy-market strategy at StoneX, wrote in a Friday newsletter. "However, the weakness in demand clearly continues from the world's second-largest oil consumer."For now, Lynch thinks the floor for U.S. oil prices "might be $60, but a price war could see us at $50, even if briefly."The market may not yet be at the point where the Saudis will initiate a price war, but "after global inventories begin building, we will be much closer," he said.

Operation to transfer oil from tanker damaged by Houthis - A ship-to-ship transfer of crude oil from Sounion’s cargo tanks has begun in Egypt more than two months after the vessel was badly damaged in a Houthi attack, sparking fears of an oil spill disaster in the region. According to Egypt’s Shipping Ministry, the operation is expected to take three to four weeks to complete, Sounion was towed into the Suez anchorage south of the Suez Canal from the north of Yemen a week ago after about 20 fires burning on her deck had been extinguished. EUNAVOF Aspides provided security during the initial towing, which began on September 14, when she was moved to a more secure location north of Yemen, closer to Eritrea. Salvage crews worked for six weeks to douse fires, mostly in the tank hatches. However, Egyptian officials have now raised concern that the tanker’s structural integrity was compromised during the attacks on August 21 and by the later Houthi explosions on the deck. The vessel was left without power and her bridge was destroyed during the initial attacks. Officials said they were concerned that the vessel had no means of maintaining stability without power. The Sounion was carrying 150 000 tonnes of crude oil (one million barrels) that had been loaded in Iraq when she was attacked en route to Rotterdam. The crew was safely evacuated by French naval forces the day after the first attack. Greece’s Delta Tankers, which manages the vessel, dispatched one of its crude oil tankers, Delta Blue (158 322 dwt), to Egypt for the operation. The Houthis said in a statement last week that the rebels would “continue to impose a naval blockade on the Israeli enemy and target all vessels belonging to it, associated with it or bound for it, and this blockade will continue until the aggression stops, the blockade of the Gaza Strip is lifted and the aggression against Lebanon is stopped”.

Arab, Muslim leaders touch down in Riyadh for talks on war in Gaza and Lebanon | The Times of Israel Arab and Muslim leaders have begun arriving in Saudi Arabia for a summit scheduled for Monday that will focus on Israel’s wars against the Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah terror groups, Saudi state media said. The Saudi foreign ministry announced the summit in late October during the first meeting of an “international alliance” pushing for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Attendees will “discuss the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian territories and the Lebanese Republic, and the current developments in the region,” the official Saudi Press Agency said on Sunday. It comes one year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during which leaders condemned Israeli forces’ actions in Gaza as “barbaric.” The Saudi state-affiliated Al-Ekhbariya news channel broadcast footage on Sunday of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati landing in Riyadh. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was also scheduled to attend, the Pakistani foreign ministry said last week, adding that he planned to call for “an immediate end to the genocide in Gaza” and the “immediate cessation of the ongoing Israeli adventurism in the region.” The 57-member OIC and 22-member Arab League include countries that recognize Israel and others firmly opposed to its regional integration. Last year’s summit in Riyadh saw disagreement on measures like severing economic and diplomatic ties with Israel and disrupting its oil supplies. Israel has been at war with Hamas and its allies since October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, massacring some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, 97 of whom are still being held. The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 43,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7. Israel also says it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques. Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 370.m

Saudi Arabia’s MBS demands immediate end to Israel’s war in Gaza, Lebanon | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has demanded that Israel immediately stop its military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon at the opening of a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh. In an address before the joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit on Monday, the crown prince, also known as MBS, condemned the “massacre committed against Palestinian and Lebanese people”. He urged Israel “to refrain from any further act of aggression” and called on countries around the world to recognise Palestinian statehood. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the Arab League, also joined MBS in condemning Israel’s military operation in Gaza and Lebanon, saying that “words cannot express the plight of the Palestinian people”. “The actions taken by Israel against the Palestinian people are undermining efforts to achieve lasting peace. It is only with justice that we will be able to establish lasting peace,” Aboul Gheit said. \ “The world cannot turn a blind eye” to Israeli violence, he stressed. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati told the summit that his country was suffering an “unprecedented” crisis that threatens its existence, as Israel wages war on Hezbollah. “Lebanon is going through an unprecedented historical and existential crisis that threatens its present and future,” he said. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian did not attend the meeting due to pressing “executive matters”. But Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref condemned Israel’s assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as “organised terrorism” in remarks to the summit. “The operations that are conceptualised with the deceptive phrasing of ‘targeted killing’, and during which Palestinian elites and leaders of other countries in the region are killed one by one or en masse, are nothing but lawlessness and organised terrorism,” he said. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu also attended the summit. In the closing statement on Monday, the assembled leaders said they “condemn in the strongest terms” the Israeli army’s actions “in the context of the crime of genocide … especially in the northern Gaza Strip during the past weeks”, citing torture, executions, disappearances and “ethnic cleansing”. The statement also condemned attempts to cement Israel’s grip on Israeli-occupied east Jerusalem, calling it the “eternal capital” of the Palestinian territories, and called for the unification of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem under a Palestinian state. “We reaffirm the full sovereignty of the State of Palestine over occupied East [Jerusalem], the eternal capital of Palestine, and reject any Israeli decisions or measures aimed at Judaising it and consolidating its colonial occupation of the city,” the summit’s closing statement said. The summit comes a year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based OIC, during which leaders condemned Israeli actions in Gaza as “barbaric”. However, leaders were unable to agree on action against Israel despite calls to sever economic and diplomatic ties with the country or disrupt its oil supplies.

Saudi armed forces chief visits Iranian counterpart for rare meeting - Saudi Arabia’s top military official has visited Tehran for talks with Iranian officials in a rare high-level meeting since the countries restored ties last year, Iran’s state media reported, General Chief of Staff Fayyad al-Ruwaili of the Saudi armed forces met his Iranian counterpart, General Mohammad Bagheri, at the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters in Tehran on Sunday, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported. “The development of defence diplomacy and the expansion of bilateral cooperation are among the main topics of this meeting,” it added. The country’s Fars news agency said that Bagheri called for increased security cooperation between the two countries at the meeting. “We would like the Saudi navy to join Iranian naval exercises next year, either as participants or observers,” Fars quoted Bagheri as saying. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the phone, Iranian media said. \ Pezeshkian told the crown prince he would not be able to attend a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh due to his busy schedule, and would be dispatching the Iranian first vice president as a representative, the Mehr news agency said Tohid Assadi, an Iranian affairs expert, told Al Jazeera that the meeting between the two armed forces chiefs could be considered a step forward in Iran-Saudi relations. “This visit also takes place after the election of [Donald] Trump in the US, who promised peace in [the Middle East]. However, the possibility of tensions ramping up is still here. So Iran and Saudi Arabia are indeed trying to make sure that everything is on the right track,” Assadi said. “They’re trying to build a sort of confidence when it comes to collective action against collective threats,” he added.

UN Committee Says Israel Is Carrying Out a Genocide, HRW Says Israel Is Committing War Crimes - On Thursday, a report published by a special UN committee said Israel’s actions in Gaza are “consistent with the characteristics of genocide,” while Human Rights Watch released a report saying Israel was committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing.The UN report, released by the UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices, said Israel has used “criminal means” to achieve its military goals, including the use of starvation as a weapon.“This included intentionally causing death, starvation, great suffering, and serious injury, using starvation as a method of warfare, and intentionally directing attacks against civilians,” the report reads.The committee, which was formed in 1968, also discussed the occupied West Bank, where it said Israel has an “apartheid system of injustice.” The report said the “killing of and serious bodily or mental harm caused to Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, are violations under international law.”The HRW report focused on Israel’s forcible displacement of Palestinians in Gaza. “Israeli authorities have caused massive, deliberate forced displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza since October 2023 and are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity,” HRW said. “There is no plausible imperative military reason to justify Israel’s mass displacement of nearly all of Gaza’s population, often multiple times.”

Qatar Says It Suspended Role as Mediator Between Israel and Hamas - Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced on Saturday that Doha had suspended its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, citing the lack of progress in Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations. “The State of Qatar notified the parties 10 days ago during the last attempts to reach an agreement, that it would stall its efforts to mediate between Hamas and Israel if an agreement was not reached in that round,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.The statement came in response to reports that Qatar had ended its role as mediator altogether and agreed with a US request to expel Hamas officials who are based in Doha. The Qatari Foreign Ministry said the reports were not accurate.The ministry said that its spokesman, Majed Al-Ansari, stated, “The main goal of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication between the concerned parties, and this channel has contributed to achieving a ceasefire in previous stages.”A senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera that they were aware of Qatar suspending its mediation role but said, “No one told us to leave.”The Hamas office in Doha opened in 2012 at the request of the US, which wanted a line of communication with the Palestinian group. Hamas was based in Damascus before that but was expelled for siding against the government in the war in Syria.Qatar has come under pressure from members of the US Congress over Hamas’s presence. But Doha’s mediation led to a successful deal in November 2023 that freed over 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of over 200 Palestinian prisoners.The suspension of Qatar’s mediation means Israel will not be under any pressure to reach a hostage deal as it is carrying out an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza. US officials have blamed Hamas for the lack of another ceasefire deal, but Israeli media reports and comments from Israeli officials have made it clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was doing everything he could to sabotage an agreement.

Israeli Drone Attack Targets Aid Distribution Center in Syria - The near-daily Israeli airstrikes on unrelated targets in Syria continued today when a multi-rocket drone strike hit a distribution center forhumanitarian aid in the village of Shinshar on the highway between Homs and Damascus.Reports are that the rockets were fired at a convoy of trucks headed to the site. This also lead to initial reports that the target was a “military site linked to Iran,” and while that doesn’t appear to be the case, pro-Israeli social media still insist the site or the trucks are somehow in league with Iran and/or Hezbollah.Shinshar is a relatively small Sunni village, so it wouldn’t make much sense for Shi’ite Hezbollah to set up a military site there. The site’s location does make it ideal for humanitarian aid distribution though. On the highway between the major cities of Homs and Damascus, Shinshar is also right next to the road to Qusayr city, which has a major border crossing. Lebanese refugees probably pass by Shinshar on their way elsewhere.This is the seventh Israeli airstrike in Syria since the start of November. Yesterday Israel attacked apartment buildings in the Damascus suburb of Sayeda Zeinab, killing at least nine civilians and wounding 20 others.That Shi’ite suburb has been hit twice in Israel’s strikes this month, while other attacks have struck other areas, including Qusayr, Aleppo Province, and Idlib. Though Israel has attacked targets in Syria off and on for decades, the number of strikes has dramatically escalated recently.

At Least Nine Civilians Reported Killed in Israeli Attacks on Damascus Apartments - Israel has been attacking targets inside Syria with growing frequency, as their assorted regional wars continue to escalate. On Sunday, Israel again attacked Sayeda Zeinab, the Shi’ite suburb south of the capital of Damascus.While Monday Israel attacked farms on the outskirts of Sayeda Zeinab, today’s attack hit a pair of apartment buildings in the residential areaitself. Hospital sources reported nine civilians were killed and 20 others wounded in the strikes.Details are still emerging on the strikes, and Israel has not commented on them. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed that the apartment buildings were occupied by Hezbollah members and the attacks targeted specific members. That cannot be confirmed, however.Sayeda Zeinab is a hugely important site for Shi’ite Muslims. It is said to be the resting place of Muhammad’s granddaughter, and is a very popular site for Shi’ites to visit on pilgrimage. Attacks on that area will doubtless be seen as a provocation by many.Beyond two strikes on Sayeda Zeinab already this month, Israel has carried out four other strikes, two against the border city of Qusayr and Friday’s airstrikes against Aleppo and Idlib Province. The Qusayr strikes were said to have targeted Hezbollah weapons smuggling operations, while the Aleppo strike targeted a scientific center and they hit Syrian troops in Idlib. The latter attacks don’t necessarily seem to be related to Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah.Media reports earlier today indicate that Hezbollah figure Salim Ayyash has been killed in one of the Qusayr airstrikes. Most of the slain and wounded in the Israeli strikes have not been identified. Though Israel has been attacking Syria off and on for decades, the number of airstrikes has been escalated dramatically recently, especially since the invasion of neighboring Lebanon. It has gotten to the point where strikes happen nearly daily.

Israeli Strike Kills 23, Including Seven Children, in North Lebanon Village - Despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel continues to escalate airstrikes across that nation. Today, one of those strikes hit the northern village of Almat, killing at least 23 people, seven of them identified as children by Lebanon’s Health Ministry.Rescue workers are still in the area looking for more survivors, and the toll has not been finalized. At least six survivors were reported as wounded. Almat is in a region that is strongly majority Maronite Christian, but the village’s own population is majority Shi’ite Muslim.Israel has yet to comment on the strike on the village, but security officials reported to the AFP that an unnamed Hezbollah member was visiting one of the attacked homes. He apparently died of his wounds, along with a lot of other people.Locals, including a man whose home was destroyed today, said civilians displaced from the Baalbek Province had relocated to Almat. It isn’t clear where the displaced will go now, or where the dozens of residents who lost homes in today’s attack will relocate. The Israeli attacks on Sunday have killed at least 38 people in Lebanon. In addition to the 23 killed in Almat, at least 12 were reported killed in the latest strikes on Baalbek. Thus far three were reported slain in smaller strikes elsewhere.

Israel Kills 38, Including Women and Children, In Attacks Across Lebanon - While officials are saying they see “a shot” at an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon, there is no sign of the airstrikes against Lebanese territory slowing down. Over 100 airstrikes have been reported against Lebanon in the past 24 hours.The death toll isn’t finalized, but right now the report is at least 38 people were killed nationwide in the airstrikes, and a number of others were wounded. A substantial number of women and children were among the casualties.The biggest single strike was against a refugee shelter in the village of Joun. Joun is south of Beirut and northwest of Sidon. With people displaced from both areas, there were a substantial number of refugees flocking to the village to escape Israeli attacks. The toll has been steadily rising, and locals are reporting at least 15 were killed and 12 wounded. The killed included eight women and four children.Not far away, another airstrike in the mountainous Aley region killed at least eight other people, according to the Health Ministry. That attack too was reported to be on a house where displaced people had taken refuge.Other strikes were reported further south, in Tefahta and Tyre, and more deadly strikes were reported in the eastern Bekaa Valley. Both of those areas are under daily attack with multiple strikes across the country. Despite over a month of invasion, the Israel war on Hezbollah has not halted the rocket fire headed into Israeli territory. Today, a rocket reportedly scored a “direct hit” on a warehouse in the northern Israeli city of Nahariya, killing two men. Nahariya is the northernmost coastal city in Israel, and only about 6 miles from the Lebanese border.

Hezbollah Claims First Ever Attack On Israeli War Ministry HQ In Tel Aviv -"In Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire and no pause. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force until our war objectives are achieved." Those are the words of Israel's new Defense Minister Israel Katz, issued Tuesday. The Biden administration has still been touting that it is working hard on a ceasefire."Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not secure its right to independently enforce and prevent terrorism, achieve its war objectives in Lebanon, disarm Hezbollah, push them back beyond the Litani River, and allow northern residents to safely return to their homes," he added. The statement was given the same day that Lebanon's government announced that over 100 Israeli airstrikes were recorded on the country in the prior 24 hours. Tuesday night, Lebanese authorities said that 17 people were killed and 21 injured in Israeli airstrikes on the central and southern towns of Baalchmay, Joun, Rumin, and Al-Maali.More were killed in what were widely described as some of the heaviest daytime strikes on Beirut of the war, per the Associated Press: Another Israeli strike on an apartment building east of Beirut killed at least six people. Wael Murtada said the destroyed home belonged to his uncle and that those inside had fled from the Dahiyeh last month. He said three children were among the dead and other people were missing. An Israeli airstrike on a residential building in central Lebanon killed 15 people, including eight women and four children, and wounded at least 12 others, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said. The strike came without warning, and state media said the building was sheltering displaced families. On the Israeli side, rockets from Lebanon have continued into northern towns at unrelenting pace. Reuters has said that about 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed since the start of the conflict: Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,287 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel. Hezbollah late on Tuesday said its forces had killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers since Oct. 1. In another important development, Hezbollah on Wednesday claimed its first ever attack on Israel’s Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, which ishome to the Israeli war ministry headquarters. "Hezbollah said the base was the headquarters of the Israeli war ministry and general staff, as well as its war management room and the air force’s war control and supervision authority," Al Jazeera reports. "The group claimed the attack was carried out with a squadron of attack drones and the targets were hit accurately." A translated Hezbollah statement says, "We conducted for the first time, an air attack with a squadron of qualitative suicide drones, on the Kirya base (the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of War and General Staff, the War Management Room, and the Air Force’s Military Control and Oversight Authority) in the city of Tel Aviv, and hit its targets accurately." If true this would mark a significant escalation. Not only would it mean that Israel's most sensitive command infrastructure is exposed, but it would mark a significant failure of Israel's advanced anti-air defense systems.

Israeli drones shooting children in Gaza deliberately 'day after day', UK surgeon tells MPs - A retired NHS surgeon who recently returned from working at a hospital in Gaza said he treated children "day after day after day" who had been deliberately targeted by Israeli drones following bomb attacks.In harrowing testimony to British MPs on Tuesday, Nizam Mamode said of all the conflicts he had worked in, including the genocide in Rwanda, he and other experienced colleagues in Gaza had "never seen anything on this scale ever".He said at least once or twice daily, there were "mass casualty incidents," meaning that 10 to 20 people were killed and up to 40 seriously injured. He estimated that at least 60 percent of the people treated at these times were women and children. "Drones would come down and pick off civilians, children," Mamode told members of the International Development Committee in a hearing focused on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. "This is not an occasional thing. This was day after day after day operating on children who would say, 'I was lying on the ground after a bomb dropped and this quadcopter came down and hovered over me and shot me'." Mamode worked at Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza for a month between August and September for the British charity Medical Aid for Palestine (MAP). He said he spent the entire month in the hospital partly because it was not safe to travel around, but also because Israelbombed MAP’s guest house in southern Gaza in January, an act that Mamode believes was deliberate. "All of those guest houses are in the Israeli army’s computers and are designated safe houses, so my assumption is that it was a deliberate attack and the aim behind it is to discourage aid workers from coming," Mamode said. He ascribed the same aim to five Israeli attacks on UN convoys, including one while he was in Gaza. Labour MP and committee chair Sarah Champion asked Mamode to clarify if he meant that rogue snipers were shooting at the armoured vehicles."No, no," he said. "This is the Israeli army coming up as a unit and deliberately shooting." Mamode said he had been given "very clear instructions" about what to do when travelling in a UN convoy while in Gaza. "The doors are going to be locked when you set off. Do not unlock the doors, if the army shoots at you and order you out. Do not get out of the vehicle," he said he had been told. "This is a UN convoy. It's got UN in big letters on the side and twice a week, it carries about 30 to 40 aid workers from different organisations in and out." Mamode said he had to choose whether to sleep in a hot room inside the hospital or outside on stairs where it was cooler, but where drones "had the ability to pick me off". The 62-year-old surgeon broke down three times during his testimony as he provided detailed accounts of his patients, including an 8-year-old girl who he said was bleeding to death during surgery one Saturday evening."I asked for a swab and they said, 'No more swabs'," he said, momentarily unable to speak. Mamode said lack of medical supplies as a result of Israel not allowing aid into Gaza included sterile gloves, drapes and pain killers, but also basic items like soap and shampoo, leading to unhygienic conditions."I saw I don't know how many wounds with maggots in [them]. One of my colleagues took maggots out of a child’s throat in intensive care," he said. "There were flies in operating theatre landing in wounds."He and his colleagues were particularly disturbed by a pattern of wounds - three to four shots on the left and right side of the chest and also in the groin area - caused by drones."That we thought was prima facie evidence of an autonomous drone or semi-autonomous drone because a human operator would not be able to fire with the degree of accuracy that quickly," Mamode said.But he also said the pellets fired by most drones were also more destructive than bullets which would pierce a body straight through. Instead, the pellets were bouncing around inside bodies.A seven-year-old boy - one of the children who had told Mamode that he had been in a bombing and then deliberately hit by a drone - came into the hospital with his stomach hanging out of his chest, and further injuries to his liver, spleen, bowel and arteries. "He survived that and went out a week later," he said. "Whether he is still alive, I don’t know."When an MP asked Mamode if he had seen Hamas while he was working, the doctor laughed."I am laughing because this was a question I asked when I got there. ‘So is Hamas in the hospital?’ And they just laughed at me," he said. "They said: 'There is no Hamas. There are a few fighters hiding in tunnels. There is no Hamas. There never was any Hamas in the hospital. Everybody hates Hamas'."