largest oil price jump in 18 months even as oil supplies rose by the most since April after Biden discussed strike on Iran oil

US oil prices rose 9.1%, the largest weekly gain since March 2023​, even though US oil inventories rose by the most since April, after Biden discussed a strike on Iranian oil refineries

oil prices rose for the third time in four weeks after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel and Biden discussed a retaliation against Iranian oil refineries….after falling 4.0% to $68.18 a barrel last week on OPEC’s plan to increase their production in December, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery rose in overseas markets early on Monday on fears that the widening conflict in the Middle East would curtail Iranian crude supplies, but traded in a narrow range in New York as the market weighed the prospect of increased supply against escalating tensions in the Middle East, and settled a penny lower at $68.17 a barrel, as traders assessed the risks that Israel’s recent strikes​ into Lebanon would widen the conflict in the Middle East​​….oil prices traded mostly sideways ​early on Tuesday before selling off sharply and hitting a low of $66.33, pressured by the prospect of increased supply from Libya’s recovering output and by the expectation that OPEC+ would increase its output by 180,000 bpd starting in December, but bounced off that low and rallied to nearly $72 after the Israel Defense Forces said that Iran had launched a missile attack against Israel, ​t​hen ​pulled back from that high to settle the session $1.66 higher at $69.83 a barrel on a genuine fear that oil supply would be impacted, as an Israeli counter attack on Iranian oil production or export facilities could cause a loss of more than a million barrels per day…oil prices surged by more than a dollar in early Asian trading Wednesday amid growing concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East would disrupt crude production, following Iran’s military strike against Israel. and were further supported by an API report of an unexpected crude inventory draw, but fell from a 3% gain after the US EIA's ​o​il supply data​ instead showed an unexpected inventory increase last week. and settled 27 cents higher at $70.10 a barrel on worries that the escalating conflict in the Middle East would threaten the world's oil supplies, despite the large build in U.S. crude inventories…oil prices further increased in Asian trading on Thursday as the wider regional conflict in the Middle East fueled fears of a disruption to crude oil flows, then extended their gains to over $3.85 and a high of $73.95 after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that U.S. officials were considering whether to support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, and settled $3.61 higher at $73.71 a barrel on fears that Israel would strike Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack earlier this week….oil prices opened higher on Friday and rallied nearly 3% to $75.57, as options traders were seen making bullish bets that oil would soon climb to $100 a barrel, before falling back and settling 67 cents higher at $74.38 a barrel, as the early gains were reduced after Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities…. oil prices ​s​till ended up 9.1% for the week, the largest weekly gain since March 2023, after falling 17% in the 3rd quarter​ on slowing demand and what had once appeared to be a lessening of bloodshed in the Middle East …

meanwhile, natural gas prices fell for the first time in 5 weeks, as millions without power in the wake of Hurricane Helene reduced gas demand from electric utilities…after rising 6.7% to ​a 14 week high of $2.902 per mmBTU last week as Hurricane Helene reduced Gulf Coast production but had little impact on LNG exports, the price of the contract for natural gas for November delivery traded in a narrow band on Monday as traders assessed the impact of Hurricane Helene, and settled 2.1 cents higher at $2.923 per mmBTU, as storage injections over July, August and September were at record lows, reducing the surplus above normal to around 6%, from the 45% surplus we ​h​ad at the end of last winter.....natural gas prices opened two cents lower on Tuesday and choppily traded around $2.90 through the afternoon, as any bullish potential was muted by forecasts for reduced cooling demand and millions of customers in the Southeast still without power due to Hurricane Helene, before settling 2.7 cents lower at $2.896 per mmBTU, dragged down by forecasts for weaker weather-driven demand and the potential for another tropical system in the Atlantic to deliver cooler air and power outages…​however, natural gas prices opened eight cents higher and rose to tap the $3.00 level on Wednesday, as forecasts brought in cooler temperatures and heating demand, but ended a penny lower at $2.886 after a volatile trading session as traders ​began selling as soon as the contract price briefly spiked to $3 in the morning….natural gas prices opened 5 cents higher ​Thursday and rose ​to near $2.97 leading up to the weekly storage report, buoyed by updated forecasts for a more seasonal winter, and settled 8.4 cents higher at $2.970 per mmBTU, as the EIA inventory report confirmed a shrinking surplus of underground supply….natural gas prices moved higher before reversing on Friday, then deepened losses through midday as traders continued to hit the sell button after the contract briefly spiked above $3 in the morning. and settled 11.6 cents lower at $2.854 per mmBTU, thus ending the week 1.7% lower and snapping a five-week winning streak on a weaker demand outlook, even as the latest EIA report showed utilities added a smaller-than-normal amount of gas into storage last week...

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending September 27th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 55 billion cubic feet to 3,547 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 127 billion cubic feet, or 3.7% above the 3,420 billion cubic feet that were in storage on September 27th of last year, and 190 billion cubic feet, or 5.7% more than the five-year average of 3,357 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 27th of September over the most recent five years…the net 55 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 59 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts were forecasting ahead of the report, and was quite a bit less than the 8​7 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in September of 2023, and also far less the average 98 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late summer week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 27th indicated that after a significant slowdown of our ​oil refining and an increase in our oil imports, we were left with a working oil surplus to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the third time in thirteen weeks, and for the 18th time in the past 42 weeks, despite ongoing demand for oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 171,000 barrels per day to 6,628,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 135,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 19,000 barrels per day to 3,878,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,750,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 27th, 190,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 580,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 100,000 barrels per day higher at an average of 13,300,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,630,000 barrels per day during the September 27th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,691,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 27th, an average of 682,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 650,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending September 27th averaged a rounded 289,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -289,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… ….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” demand, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 650,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 556,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 94,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-third SPR increase in the past fifty weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,568,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 4.6% less than the 6,886,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day higher at an average of 13,300,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 100,000 barrels per day higher at 12,900,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 15,000 barrels per day higher at 435,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 37.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 87.5% of their capacity while processing those 15,691,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 27th, down from from their 90.9% utilization rate of a week earlier, a decease which may have been hurricane related, but ​still not an unusual decrease ​f​or late September, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 15,691,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.6% more than the 15,602,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending September 29th of 2023, but 2.0% less than the 16,017,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending September 27th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic below normal 86.4% for late September…

With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 235,000 barrels per day to 9,602,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 27th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 178,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 8.8% more than the 8,826,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending September 29th of last year, but was 4.8% less than the gasoline production of 10,081,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending September 27th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 104,000 barrels per day to 4,794,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 158,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After twenty-one production increases in the past thirty-one weeks, our distillates output was 2.2% more than the 4,689,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 29th of 2023, but 0.4% less than the 4,813,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending September 27th, 2019…

Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the 14th time in thirty-five weeks, increasing by 1,119,000 barrels to 220,083,000 barrels during the week ending September 27th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,538,000 barrels to a 43 week low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 694,000 barrels per day to 8,521,000 barrels per day, even as our exports of gasoline rose by 115,000 barrels per day to 962,000 barrels per day, and even as our imports of gasoline fell by 206,000 barrels per day to 540,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-one gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-five weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.5% below last September 29th's gasoline inventories of 226,984,000 barrels, and were about 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 21st time in the past thirty-seven weeks, decreasing by 1,284,000 barrels to 121,637,000 barrels over the week ending September 27th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,227,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 384,000 barrels per day to 3,638,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 92,000 barrels per day to 194,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 237,000 barrels per day to 1,534,000 barrels per day....Even after 21 inventory withdrawals over the past 37 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.4% above the 118,795,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 29th of 2023, while they are still about 8% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big decrease in our oil refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 25th time in the past year, and by the most since April, increasing by 3,889,000 barrels over the week, from 413,042,000 barrels on September 20th to 416,931,000 barrels on Septemeber 27th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 4,471,000 barrels to a 74 week low over the prior week… With this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories rose to about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and to about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the last week of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this September 27th were 0.7% more than the 414,063,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on September 29th of 2023, but 2.9% less than the 429,203,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 23rd of 2022, and 0.4% less than the 418,542,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on September 24th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 4th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (September 27th) and this week’s (October 4th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s September 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 6th of October, 2023…

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Ohio Justices Reject Neighbor's Objection To Gas Pipeline – Law360 -- The Ohio Supreme Court on Thursday affirmed a state siting board's accelerated approval for a NiSource unit's 3. 7-mile natural gas pipeline in the city of Maumee, rejecting a commercial property owner's claims that the project's risks were not adequately considered. . . .

Ohio Supreme Court Affirms Permit for 3.7-Mile Pipe Near Toledo | Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Supreme Court issued a "slip opinion" dismissing a challenge to a tiny 3.7-mile, 30-inch pipeline Columbia Gas wants to build in Maumee, a city in Lucas County, Ohio, a suburb about 10 miles southwest of Toledo. The owners of a commercial office building claimed they would suffer "irreparable financial harm" if the pipeline were built near their office building. The pipeline does not cross any land owned by the company but does cross land adjacent to the building. We searched our considerable archives (over 28,000 posts!) and found no references to this project.

In re Letter of Notification Application of Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. - Supreme Court of Ohio - {¶ 1} In the proceedings below, the Ohio Power Siting Board granted the application of intervening appellee, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. (“Columbia”), to construct the Ford Street Pipeline Project, a 3.7-mile natural-gas-distribution pipeline in the City of Maumee in Lucas County. The board approved the pipeline project under R.C. 4906.03(F)(3), which provides an accelerated-review process for a proposed gas pipeline that is not more than five miles long. {¶ 2} Appellant, Yorktown Management, L.L.C. (“Yorktown”), which owns land and a commercial office building adjacent to property that contains a portion of the approved route of the pipeline, has appealed. Yorktown contends that the board failed to consider and resolve safety and environmental concerns related to the pipeline’s siting in proximity to the western boundary of Yorktown’s property. Specifically, Yorktown questions the placement of the pipeline and the width of the easements necessary to safely construct, maintain, and operate the pipeline. {¶ 3} As discussed below, Yorktown’s arguments lack merit. We therefore affirm the board’s decision.

EOG Resources to ramp up drilling in Ohio's Utica shale play, exec says - EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) plans to ramp up operations in the Utica shale play in Ohio, COO Jeff Leitzell said Tuesday at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference, according to Reuters. Leitzell said EOG (EOG) has doubled its activity in the Utica during the past year, operating on 445K acres with an average entry cost of ~$600/acre."The Utica absolutely has the opportunity to be a foundational play," Leitzell told attendees at the conference, adding that "if we continue to have the success that we expect, you can expect us to go ahead now and put more capital there." During EOG's (EOG) Q1 update, Senior VP for Exploration and Production Keith Trasko said the company's Utica wells "compete with the best plays in America, very comparable to the Permian on a production per foot basis."

Ascent Resources Issues $600M in New IOUs to Replace Old IOUs Marcellus Drilling News - We're not high finance people (nor are we lawyers), but we do the best we can to explain financial (and legal) news that impacts companies and individuals in the Marcellus/Utica. Yesterday, Ascent Resources, a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale, announced it is floating new unsecured notes that mature in 2032 to purchase and payoff already-existing unsecured notes that were due to be paid ("maturing") in 2026. We call them IOUs. Ascent is hoping to raise $600 million by selling the new notes.

Fitch Rates Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC's Proposed Sr. Unsecured Notes 'BB-'/'RR3' -- Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BB-'/'RR3' rating to Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC's (Ascent) proposed senior unsecured notes.Ascent's 'B+'/Outlook Positive Issuer Default Rating reflects Fitch's expectations of positive FCF over the rating horizon, debt reduction, moderate leverage, above-average production scale and strong hedge book. These factors are offset by fairly high revolver utilization and relatively high firm transportation costs, which results in netbacks slightly lower than that of its peers. The proposed senior unsecured notes issue is leverage neutral and extends the maturity of the company's debt.Fitch believes Ascent will maintain access to debt capital markets and generate FCF to reduce refinancing risk, although natural gas prices are volatile and debt capital markets can be challenging at times. The Positive Outlook is driven by Fitch's expectation that the company will use FCF to reduce revolver borrowings and total debt over the next 12-24 months. Ascent's strong and consistent hedging policy protects the company's cashflow. The company has hedged greater than 75% of expected gas production for both the remainder of 2024 and entirety of 2025 at $3.49/thousand cubic foot of gas (mcf) and $3.80/mcf, respectively. Hedging extends as far as 2027 with greater than 50% of expected gas production hedged in 2026 at $3.73/mcf and about 10% of expected 2027 production hedged at $3.91/mcf. Fitch believes that the hedging program protects current capital spending and debt reduction plans given the pricing environment. While many peers have begun to deemphasize hedging, Ascent maintains a robust hedging program, which is a credit positive.

Utica Oil E&P Infinity Natural Resources Latest to File for IPO | Hart Energy - Utica Shale oil producer Infinity Natural Resources has filed to IPO, bringing public equity into its 90,000 net acres, including leasehold it has amassed in the growing Ohio play.The Morgantown, West Virginia-based E&P filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission Oct. 4. Underwriters to date are Citigroup, Raymond Jamesand RBC Capital Markets. An estimate of the number of shares and price range is not yet determined.It expects to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "INR."Speakers at Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference in Dallas Oct. 3 said public markets are increasingly receptive to go-public deals by small- and mid-cap companies.In addition to Ohio’s Utica oil fairway, where Infinity is producing some 7,100 bbl/d, it operates in eastern Appalachia’s gassy Marcellus Shale, bringing total output to 25,000 boe/d, 29% oil and 48% liquids, according to the S-1 filing.Formed in 2017 and backed by Pearl Energy Investments and NGP, Infinity got to work drilling for gas in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus. In 2021, it began accumulating Utica oil leasehold in Ohio.Of Its 90,000 net acres, which are 83% HBP, 60,000 net are in Ohio and 30,000 in Pennsylvania.Factoring for stacked benches—both the Marcellus and Utica and multiple, layered wells in each zone—in some areas, its “total horizon acres” are 119,000 net, it reported.Proved reserves are 141.6 MMboe, 48% proved developed, comprised of 22% oil, 18% NGL, 60% gas.Future-well inventory is 339 gross laterals—73 proved; 266 unproved—for 19 years of drilling at its current pace of 18 wells per year to D&C the 4.4 million feet of lateral, it reported.Zack Arnold, Infinity president and CEO, told Hart Energy this summer that the Utica’s oil fairway in Ohio is an easier drill than Infinity’s Marcellus wells in Pennsylvania. Ohio’s Utica fairway is geologically quiet, meaning it lacks faulting.“We can do very long laterals with very few changes to our directional plan,” he said.Infinity TD’ed a 14,000 footer in mid-June that stayed in the 3.5-ft zone the entire time.“That’s hard to do in some areas of the Marcellus because you have more complexity and you have to chase that formation a little bit more,” Arnold said. “We don't have to do that in Ohio.”Infinity’s optimal lateral is between 14,000 and 20,000 feet, he added.In addition to Arnold, Infinity’s founders previously worked the Appalachian Basin for Chesapeake Energy, now known as Expand Energy, and for Northeast Natural Energy.

28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 23 – 29 | Marcellus Drilling News There were 28 permits issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica for the week of Sept. 23 - 29, down slightly from the 32 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had 15 new permits, with seven of them going to Range Resources, most of them in Washington County. Three permits were issued to Chesapeake Energy in Bradford County, and two permits were issued to Southwestern Energy in Susquehanna County. As of Tuesday, Chesapeake and Southwestern combined in a merger to form Expand Energy (see Chesapeake & Southwestern Complete Merger; Now #1 U.S. Gas Driller). It's going to take a while before the name change flows through to new permits, so we'll keep reporting on the permits by their given names for now. ALLEGHENY COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | BUTLER COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CLEAN ENERGY E&P | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GUERNSEY COUNTY | LAUREL MOUNTAIN ENERGY | MARSHALL COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

3 More Drillers Dinged by PA DEP for Not Disclosing Frack Chemicals - Marcellus Drilling News - According to Pennsylvania regulation 25 Pa. Code § 78a.122(b)(6)(iv), a drilling company must provide a list of the chemicals intentionally added to the stimulation [fracking] fluid by name and chemical abstract service (CAS) number in a Completion Report. The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) says three drillers, including EQT, Range Resources, and Greylock Energy, failed to file the proper paperwork for one or more wells.

Fracking in Pennsylvania hasn't gone as well as some may think – WHYY - Twenty years after the state's first shale gas well was drilled, jobs comprise less than 1% of the workforce, residents fear health impacts and environmental damage continues. With all the talk of fracking in Pennsylvania during this presidential race, it’s worth looking at what is at stake for workers, leaseholders and residents who live near oil and gas operations.One quick but important reality check — a president cannot ban fracking in Pennsylvania. Only an act of Congress can prohibit fracking on a national level on private and state land, which is where fracking occurs in Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris would ban fracking if she is elected president, which she wouldn’t have the power to do.“I think this whole discussion about whether fracking should be banned or not is really a diversion by the industry and others from what they should be talking about, which is how can we do this safely so it doesn’t have a negative impact on health and the environment,” said David Hess, former Department of Environmental Protection secretary who served under former Gov. Tom Ridge from 2001 to 2003. Job creation is touted as the most significant benefit of the fracking boom, especially in the more rural parts of the state where good-paying jobs can be scarce. One of the first job creation reports painted a rosy picture. Published in 2010 by Penn State University and paid for by the industry, it predicted fracking the Marcellus Shale formation would support 200,000 jobs by 2020. Six years later, another Penn State study with different authors reported about 26,000 direct jobs in the industry, half of which were filled by out-of-state residents. Today, that number is even smaller. In March of 2024, the state reported 16,831 direct jobs in the industry, less than one half of 1% of all jobs. As a comparison, direct construction jobs account for about 260,000 jobs in the state, while manufacturing currently provides 566,800 jobs. So why are we hearing in political ads and from some national journalists that fracking in Pennsylvania accounts for about 120,000 jobs?The number stems from a 2023 report by the industry that takes a very different approach to counting employment and reported 123,000 jobs were related to fracking in Pennsylvania — a year when the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics listed direct oil and gas jobs in the state at about 12,000. The Marcellus Shale Coalition surveyed companies in 2022. Its report states that the 123,000 figure includes direct jobs, as well as those “generated through the supply chain and employee spending across different sectors of the economy.” But the methods used in the industry job study are very different from those used by academics and financial analysts, and as a result, cast a very wide net. The report’s job numbers are about 10 times the number of direct fracking jobs reported in the state for 2022. Jeremy Weber, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh specializing in energy and environmental policy, used the example of how the 2023 industry report counts the increased use of natural gas as a source of electricity generation in the state.“And they attribute all of that natural gas employment associated with power generation to the shale gas industry,” Weber said. “Well, in Pennsylvania we’re producing roughly the same amount of electricity today as we did before there was any shale gas development. So the total number of people employed in the electric power sector probably hasn’t changed hardly at all. We’ve just shifted the chairs, so to speak, and are now drawing more [electricity from] natural gas.”The industry calculation also includes jobs associated with natural gas distribution, which Weber said “makes no sense.”“In Pennsylvania, we’re consuming in our homes and businesses about the same amount of natural gas today as we did 15 years ago before shale took off. And yet, their methodology and study includes all of the jobs associated with providing natural gas to homes and businesses as attributable to shale development.”Almost immediately after the shale gas boom began in about 2008, reports of fracking in Pennsylvania had residents witnessing dramatic well blowouts and reporting damaged well water, unexplained health issues and, in one famous case, the explosion of a drinking water well that had a build up of methane.The lack of regulation of shale gas production led to the adoption of Act 13 in 2012, which also established an impact fee. The law was updated in 2016.Former Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Dave Hess, who writes the Pennsylvania Environmental Daily newsletter, pours over the well inspection reports issued by the DEP.“What I see is the issue of polluted water supplies, of people being impacted by the air pollution around these facilities, people looking out their bedroom windows and 500 feet [away] is a flare shooting 25 feet up in the air, burning off excess natural gas,” said Hess. “All those issues are still there.”Hess raised alarms in a recent post that listed, in the course of one week in September, 62 notices of violations of conventional wells and seven for fracked wells, bringing the total year-to-date violations to 721 for fracked shale gas wells, and a whopping 5,857 violations for the more shallow conventional wells. The state has had conventional wells, which don’t use fracking to tap the reserves, for more than 100 years. While there are a lot more conventional wells, they do not produce nearly as much oil and gas as the deeper fracked wells.The chart below illustrates DEP violations between 2015 and 2022 for both conventional and unconventional wells. While violations for fracked wells have grown, those for the conventional wells have increased more dramatically.

Pennsylvania Gas Leaseholders Get Royalties Suit Certified – Law360 -- Hundreds of Pennsylvania landowners with natural gas leases have been certified by a federal judge as a class in their lawsuit against Range Resources, which they say took more money out of their royalty payments than their contracts permitted. . .

PA Sen. Yaw Bill Plugs Old Conv. Wells Using $$ from Solar Credits -- Marcellus Drilling News - Pennsylvania State Senator Gene Yaw believes he has a solution to help fund plugging many of the state’s ~350,000 orphaned and abandoned conventional oil and gas wells. Yaw recently introduced a bill, Senate Bill (SB) 1330, that directs the PA Department of General Services to sell any alternative energy credits it owns from buying unreliable solar energy and use the funds to plug old wells. The proposal, which could generate upward of $227 million, drives the enviro-left nuts.

DEP Begins Accepting Grant Applications Oct. 9 To Plug Orphan Conventional Oil & Gas Wells Abandoned By Their Owners -- On October 2, the Department of Environmental Protection announced it will begin accepting applications on October 9 for grants to plug orphan conventional oil and gas wells abandoned by their owners. The new program is part of the $76 million in funding Pennsylvania received from the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for plugging wells abandoned by conventional oil and gas well owners.The program offers grants of up to $40,000 to plug orphan wells 3,000 feet deep or less, and up to $70,000 for wells deeper than 3,000 feet. The grants will be available to qualified well pluggers for orphan wells, which are wells that were abandoned by conventional oil and gas well owners before April 18, 1985.[A “Qualified Well Plugger” is a “person who demonstrates access to equipment, materials, resources and services to plug wells in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements.”[A Qualified Well Plugger, a parent or subsidiary business entity, must also be in compliance with “any statute administered by the Department, a regulation promulgated under a statute administered by the Department or a plan approval, permit or order of the Department,” according to the application presentation.[An “Orphan Well” as defined in Section 3203 of the Pennsylvania Oil and Gas Act is “a well abandoned prior to April 18, 1985 that has not been affected or operated by the present owner or operator and from which the present owner, operator or lessee has received no economic benefit other than as a landowner or recipient of a royalty interest from the well.”]"By prioritizing the capping and plugging of orphaned and abandoned wells, my Administration is making meaningful strides in reducing greenhouse gas emissions while also supporting thousands of good-paying energy jobs across Pennsylvania," said Governor Shapiro. "Pennsylvania has a long legacy as an energy leader – and these wells are proof of that. Now, we are continuing that legacy by plugging and capping them, improving air quality, reducing emissions, protecting public health, and creating jobs. We are rejecting the false choice between protecting jobs and protecting our planet – and my Administration will continue to draw down as much federal funding as possible to do this critical work." “Orphan wells can leak methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere and pollute groundwater. It is not a matter of ‘if’ an orphan well will be a threat to the environment and public health – it’s a matter of ‘when’,” said DEP Acting Secretary Shirley. “This new program will allow private entities to plug lower-risk and lower-cost orphan wells while DEP focuses on priority wells that can be more expensive to plug. Plugging these orphan wells creates good-paying jobs and improves the environment. We are encouraging any qualified well pluggers to apply and help improve the economy and the environment.”

PA DEP Program Gives Fed $$ to Plug “Lower Priority” Orphaned Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - In August, the Biden-Harris administration promised (but hasn’t yet delivered a dime of) up to $152 million in “Phase 2” federal money, i.e., your taxpayer dollars, to help plug old conventional oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania (see Convenient Timing: Biden-Harris Promise Pa. Another $152 Million). In September, Biden-Harris said a check was in the mail for $76 million for “Phase 1” of the same thing (see Biden-Harris Bribe Pa. with Check for $76 Million to Plug Old Wells). It is grotesquely CORRUPT. It is vote-buying. PA Gov. Josh Shapiro says the check was received, so he’s now handing out some of that $76 million to buy votes among the oil and gas sector. Yesterday, the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) announced a new program that hands out some of the $76 million to “lower priority” orphaned wells.

Hydrogen from Methane Pyrolysis Potential New $$ for Drillers --Marcellus Drilling News - There are so many colors for hydrogen (denoting how it is produced) that we've lost track of the number. Some 95% of all hydrogen today is made by using steam with natural gas to separate hydrogen from carbon, referred to as "gray" hydrogen. If the hydrogen producer captures the carbon dioxide generated during the process, it's called "blue" hydrogen. "Green" hydrogen uses electricity from solar or wind to pass an electrical current through water to split the molecules into hydrogen and oxygen (by far the most expensive way to produce hydrogen). "Pink" hydrogen is produced from water using nuclear power. There are other colors too, like white and brown. However, we're interested in "turquoise" hydrogen today, which is also made from natural gas. Instead of steam, methane is heated to 900 degrees Celsius, which frees the hydrogen atoms and turns the carbon into a solid.

If Democrats Ban Fracking, It Would Instantly Cause a Recession - Marcellus Drilling News - We spotted an article on the Rigzone website with the following headline: “What Would a USA Fracking Ban Mean for the Oil Price?” Our initial thought was, “A frack ban will never happen.” But we read the article and came across this comment by Matt Willer, Managing Director of Capital Markets at Phoenix Group Holdings: “Willer told Rigzone that, in his opinion, the likelihood of a U.S. fracking ban is less than 50 percent.” Whoa, wait just a darned minute! You mean IF The Cackler actually wins, there is a close-to-50% chance of a nationwide frack ban? That’s what Willer appears to be saying. If true, it’s alarming. It’s astonishing. And it’s all the more reason you must motivate everyone you know to vote for DJT.

Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy Complete Merger and Provide Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call Information, Company Rebranded as Expand Energy -- Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company today closed on their previously announced combination. The combined company has been rebranded as Expand Energy Corporation. Expand Energy’s common stock will commence public trading on the NASDAQ under the ticker “EXE” at the open of trading on October 2, 2024, and will continue to trade today under the symbol “CHK”. “As America’s largest natural gas producer and a top producer globally, Expand Energy is built to disrupt the industry’s traditional cost and market delivery model,” said Nick Dell’Osso, Expand Energy’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Behind our advantaged portfolio, peer-leading returns program and resilient financial foundation, we are poised to capture the significant synergies provided by this powerful combination. We will expand opportunity for shareholders and consumers alike by enhancing margins and reaching more markets, reducing the overall cost of energy. The world needs more energy, and our team is committed to sustainably delivering it to consumers.” In connection with its rebranding, Expand Energy launched a new website, which can be found at www.expandenergy.com.The company will release its 2024 third quarter operational and financial results as well as provide certain preliminary information regarding its 2025 capital and operational plan after market close on October 29, 2024. A conference call to discuss the results and preliminary 2025 plan has been scheduled for October 30, 2024 at 9:00 a.m. EDT. Participants can view the live webcast here. Participants who would like to ask a question, can register here, and will receive the dial-in info and a unique PIN to join the call. Links to the conference call will be provided on Expand Energy’s website. A replay will be available on the website following the call.

Chesapeake & Southwestern Complete Merger; Now #1 U.S. Gas Driller - Marcellus Drilling News -- Move over EQT Corporation, there's a new number one natural gas producer in the U.S. Yesterday, Chesapeake Energy announced that its buyout of and merger with Southwestern Energy in a $7.4 billion deal was completed. The newly merged company was renamed Expand Energy Corporation and will begin trading on the NASDAQ stock market today under the ticker "EXE". As of today, Expand produces more natural gas than EQT. The big difference is that Expand's production comes from both the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville, whereas EQT's production is 100% from the M-U.

EQT Laying Off 15% of Workforce Following Equitrans Acquisition - EQT Corporation is now the #2 largest natural gas driller in the U.S. following the merger of Chesapeake Energy with Southwestern Energy to form Expand Energy Corporation (see today's lead story). EQT took the opportunity yesterday, while everyone was focused on the shiny new object (Expand Energy), to file a Form 8-K with the SEC announcing it is laying off 15% of its entire workforce. EQT says the layoffs are a result of too many workers following the merger with its former midstream division, Equitrans, in July (see Reunited: EQT Closes on Deal to Buy Equitrans Midstream for $5.4B). So, how many employees are getting canned? We have a guess.

Canadian Enbridge acquired the American gas company PSNC for $3.1 billion - Canadian energy company Enbridge Inc. has completed the acquisition of the gas company Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. (PSNC) from the American energy company Dominion Energy, Inc. This is reported in the Enbridge press release. Upon closing of the deal, PSNC will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit and will operate a business under the name Enbridge Gas North Carolina in the state of North Carolina. The deal represents a successful strategic acquisition of three American gas companies, which was first announced in September 2023. In November 2023, Dominion Energy entered into an agreement with Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge to sell three gas distribution companies, including East Ohio Gas Company, Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. and Questar Gas Company, as well as Wexpro Company, which serve 3 million households and businesses in Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho. In addition, the deal includes distribution networks, pipelines for gas collection and storage, and underground storage facilities for LNG. The total value of the transactions is $14 billion, including debt obligations in the amount of $4.6 billion. In particular, the value of the transaction for the sale of East Ohio Gas Company amounted to $6.6 billion (debt of $2.3 billion); the value of Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. $3.1 billion (debt of $1 billion) and the value of Questar Gas Company and Wexpro Company — $4.3 billion (debt in in the amount of $1.3 billion). The funds raised will be used to reduce the debt obligations of the parent company and operating enterprises. As part of the deal, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada committed to provide Enbridge with borrowed funds in the amount of up to $9.4 billion for financing, and RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley entered into agreements to acquire Enbridge shares in the amount of $2.93 billion, which will also be used to finance the transaction. Dominion Energy plans to hold a meeting with investors in the fourth quarter to discuss the company's changed strategic and financial prospects. The deal aims to create North America's largest natural gas platform in line with Dominion Energy's strategy to increase the company's long-term value to shareholders, customers and other stakeholders. PSNC is an American gas company in the state of North Carolina. The asset portfolio includes more than 20 km of pipelines for the distribution and transportation of natural gas, an LNG storage facility under construction, as well as unused minority interests in the pipeline and an LNG storage facility. Dominion Energy is an American energy company providing electricity in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, as well as providing gas supply services in 15 US states. The headquarters is located in Richmond (Virginia). Enbridge is a Canadian energy company headquartered in Calgary, Canada. The main activity of the company is the construction and maintenance of pipelines for the transportation of oil and natural gas.

Enbridge Finishes Dominion Acquisitions with PSNC Transaction Close – Rigzone Enbridge Inc. has closed its acquisition of Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated (PSNC) from Dominion Energy, Inc. The PSNC gas utility will be doing business in North Carolina as Enbridge Gas North Carolina and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit, the company said in a news release. PSNC is a premier single-state regulated gas utility in North Carolina serving over 600,000 customers in service territories supported by strong economic growth in cities such as Raleigh, Durham, Gastonia, and Asheville, according to the release. The utility’s asset portfolio includes over 13,000 miles (over 20,500 kilometers) of natural gas distribution and transmission pipelines, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage facility under construction that will enhance system reliability, and non-operated minority interests in a natural gas transmission pipeline lateral and a liquefied natural gas storage facility. "We are pleased to finalize the acquisition from Dominion Energy of three growing gas utilities, by welcoming PSNC to Enbridge. The values and operations of our businesses are strongly aligned, and we share a deep commitment to the continued safe delivery of reliable, affordable natural gas to our customers," Michele Harradence, Enbridge Executive Vice President and President for Gas Distribution and Storage, said. "PSNC is a perfect fit within our existing low-risk, utility business model and the embedded growth opportunities underscore the critical need for natural gas infrastructure over the long term. We are excited to work with our new PSNC employees to integrate the assets and complement the growth we are already seeing in Ohio and Utah and look forward to building long-term productive relationships with all of PSNC's stakeholders in North Carolina,” Harradence noted. The PSNC transaction close marks the successful completion of Enbridge’s strategic acquisition announced in September 2023, where it entered into three separate definitive agreements with Dominion Energy Inc. to acquire natural gas distribution companies The East Ohio Gas Company, PSNC, and Questar Gas for an aggregate purchase price of $14 billion (CAD 19 billion), composed of $9.4 billion of cash consideration and $4.6 billion of assumed debt. Enbridge closed the acquisition of (EOG) from Dominion Energy, Inc. in March. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. In June, Enbridge completed the acquisition of Questar Gas Company and its related Wexpro companies from Dominion Energy. Questar joined Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. The Questar Gas utility is doing business in Utah as Enbridge Gas Utah, in Wyoming as Enbridge Gas Wyoming, and in Idaho as Enbridge Gas Idaho, Enbridge said in an earlier news release. With the completion of the Dominion transactions, Enbridge added gas utility operations in Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, representing a significant presence in the U.S. utility sector. According to Dominion, the three utilities serve about three million homes and businesses and collectively comprise approximately 78,000 miles of natural gas distribution, transmission, gathering, and storage pipelines, as well as more than 62 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of working underground and (LNG) storage capacity, and approximately 400 billion cubic feet equivalent of cost-of-service regulated gas reserves as of year-end 2022.

Enbridge Sanctions Pipelines to Support BP's New Deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico Development - Enbridge Inc. announced today that it will build, own, and operate crude oil and natural gas pipelines in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico for the recently sanctioned Kaskida development, operated by BP Exploration & Production Company ("bp"). The crude oil pipeline, named the Canyon Oil Pipeline System ("Canyon Oil"), will be a combination of 24" and 26" pipe with capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. It will originate in the Keathley Canyon area and deliver crude to the existing Green Canyon 19 platform, operated by Shell Pipeline Company LP for ultimate delivery to the Louisiana market.The natural gas pipeline, named the Canyon Gathering System ("Canyon Gas"), will be a 12" pipeline with capacity of 125 million cubic feet per day and will connect subsea to Enbridge's existing Magnolia Gas Gathering Pipeline, which then delivers to Enbridge's downstream FERC-regulated Garden Banks Gas Pipeline. The definitive agreements are underpinned by long-term contracts which are consistent with Enbridge's low-risk business model and provide utility-like returns. The agreements contain options which bp may elect to exercise in order to connect potential future production from its emerging Paleogene portfolio into the newly developed pipelines. Both the Canyon Oil and the Canyon Gas pipelines are being designed to accommodate connections from nearby discoveries.Detailed design and procurement activities will commence in early 2025 with the pipelines expected to be operational by 2029. The cost of the pipelines will be approximately US$700 million.

U.S. LNG Feedgas Dropped Last Week Due to Maintenance & Hurricane - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN previously told you that gas flows (called “feedgas”) heading to the Cove Point LNG export facility along the coast of Maryland had fallen to zero as of Sept. 20 because the facility is undergoing annual maintenance (see Flows Drop to Zero @ Cove Point LNG, Closed for Annual Maintenance). Maintenance will likely last about three weeks at Cove Point. Flows to Venture Global’s not-commercially-ready but still producing LNG like crazy plant in Calcasieu Pass (in Louisiana) were down last week. Plus, a brief electricity outage at Elba Island (in Georgia) due to Hurricane Helene caused a temporary decrease in feedgas there. All of those factors combined to lower LNG feedgas flows last week.

Calcasieu Pass LNG Repairs Progress as Long-Term Customers Seek More Information - Venture Global LNG Inc. is one step closer to solving equipment faults at the Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas facility in Louisiana, which is at the center of legal disputes, but customers are still fighting for more information, according to federal regulatory filings. FERC gave Venture Global permission to introduce gas to a heat recovery steam generator, noted as HRSG 373 in the order published Tuesday. HRSG 373 is one of five units that make up the power island at the 10 million ton/year capacity facility. The units are also the source of frequent performance issues that have resulted in outages and flaring because of welding issues and manufacturing defects, the company told regulators and customers last year.

Reuters Says FERC Sides with Venture Global in Shafting LNG Customers - - Marcellus Drilling News - Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG export facility received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization to place the final three liquefaction blocks (7-9) into service in November 2023 (see Venture Global Gets FERC OK to Commission 3 Calcasieu Pass Trains). The other trains, 1-6, have been online for over two years! However, the entire facility is not officially in commercial service, even though it has shipped over 200 cargoes. Venture Global claims it is still working out the kinks. A newly issued inspection report by FERC personnel appears to support Venture Global’s claims of still working out the kinks, according to Reuters.

TotalEnergies Building Natural Gas-Heavy Eagle Ford Portfolio with Another Lewis Energy Deal - One of the largest LNG exporters in the United States, TotalEnergies SE, is snapping up more natural gas producing assets in South Texas. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Eagle Ford Shale natural gas spot price showing historical market volatility. The agreement with Lewis Energy Group includes a 45% stake in dry gas producing assets in the Eagle Ford Shale. The French integrated major said the assets have the potential to produce 400 MMcf/d by 2028. “This acquisition further strengthens our upstream gas position in the United States and contributes to our integrated LNG position with a low cost upstream gas supply,” TotalEnergies’ Nicolas Terraz, president, Exploration & Production, said. Related Tags

TotalEnergies Forecasting LNG Sales Rising 50% to 2030, but Short Term Said Sensitive to Supply Disruptions - TotalEnergies SE is advancing a strategy to expand production through 2030, anchored by oil and natural gas – notably LNG – as well as electricity generation, according to CEO Patrick Pouyanné. TotalEnergies SE's supply and demand LNG portfolio through 2030. During the annual investor meeting in New York City, Pouyanné and his executive team laid out a broad multi-year plan to increase output and lower emissions, with liquefied natural gas at the top of the agenda. “Natural gas is indeed at the core of TotalEnergies’ transition strategy,” driven mostly by LNG capacity, Pouyanné said. The compound annual growth rate for LNG sales is forecast to increase by 5-6% between 2023 and 2030.

Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - The U.S. Department of Energy has granted an affiliate of Houston-based Big River Energy LLC authorization to export American natural gas to Mexico for liquefaction and re-export to U.S. free trade agreement countries. Map showing Arabian Peninsula and maritime choke points in the Red Sea. Gato Negro Permitium Uno SAPI de CV received authorization to export up to 236 Bcf/year of U.S. gas to Mexico. It would use 33 Bcf/year for fuel and to power liquefaction at a proposed export terminal on Mexico’s west coast. The 4 million tons/year (Mt/y) Gato Negro LNG terminal in Manzanillo was authorized to re-export U.S. gas when it enters service to Dec. 31, 2050.

Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds -Exported gas emits far more greenhouse gas emissions than coal, despite fossil-fuel industry claims it is a cleaner alternative, according to a major new research paper that challenges the controversial yet rapid expansion of gas exports from the US to Europe and Asia.Coal is the dirtiest of fossil fuels when combusted for energy, with oil and gas producers for years promoting cleaner-burning gas as a “bridge” fuel and even a “climate solution” amid a glut of new liquefied natural gas (or LNG) terminals, primarily in the US.But the research, which itself has become enmeshed in a political argument in the US, has concluded that LNG is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over a 20-year period compared with coal.“The idea that coal is worse for the climate is mistaken – LNG has a larger greenhouse gas footprint than any other fuel,” said Robert Howarth, an environmental scientist at Cornell University and author of the new paper.“To think we should be shipping around this gas as a climate solution is just plain wrong. It’s greenwashing from oil and gas companies that has severely underestimated the emissions from this type of energy.”Drilling, moving, cooling and shipping gas from one country to another uses so much energy that the actual final burning of gas in people’s homes and businesses only accounts for about a third of the total emissions from this process, the research finds.The large resulting emissions mean there is “no need for LNG as an interim energy source”, the paper says, adding that “ending the use of LNG should be a global priority”. The peer-reviewed research, published onThursday in the Energy Science & Engineering journal, challenges the rationale for a huge surge in LNG facilities along the US Gulf coast, in order to send gas in huge tankers to overseas markets. The US is the world’s leading LNG exporter, followed by Australia and Qatar.Previous government and industry estimates have assumed that LNG is considerably lower emitting than coal, offering the promise that it could replace it in countries such as China, as well as aiding European allies menaced by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major gas producer.“US LNG exports can help accelerate environmental progress across the globe, enabling nations to transition to cleaner natural gas to reduce emissions and address the global risks of climate change,” Dustin Meyer, director of market development at the American Petroleum Institute, has said. But scientists have determined that LNG expansion is not compatible with the world avoiding dangerous global heating, with researchers finding in recent years the leakage of methane, a primary component of gas and a potent planet-heating agent, from drilling operations is far higher than official estimates.Howarth’s paper finds that as much as 3.5% of the gas delivered to customers leaks to the atmosphere unburned, much more than previously assumed. Methane is about 80 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, even though it persists for less time in the atmosphere, and scientists have warned that rising global methane emissions risk blowing apart agreed-upon climate goals.

Cornell Tries to Prop Up Junk “Study” on LNG by Park Foundation --Marcellus Drilling News - Two days ago, MDN told you about a Congressional investigation looking into the Department of Energy's use of a prematurely released "study" as an excuse to "pause" (i.e., ban) new LNG export approvals (see Congress Probes Role of Bob Howarth Study in DOE LNG Pause). Cornell professor Robert Howarth, using money from the anti-fossil fuel Park Foundation, wrote a "study" that purports to show that LNG is worse for the environment than burning coal! It's an elaborate exercise in mental gymnastics. The DOE used the study before it was peer-reviewed and published, i.e., before it was properly vetted. Yesterday, the study was rushed into publication by the journal Energy Science & Engineering.

US natgas prices edge up to 15-week high on weeks of low storage builds (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a 15-week high as reduced output so far this year has cut the amount of the fuel going into storage for the winter heating season. Storage injections in July, August and so far in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 19 of the past 20 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 6% above normal for this time of year due to relatively low heating demand during mild winter of 2023-2024. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.923 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 13. For the quarter, the front-month was up about 12% after jumping 48% last quarter. Futures rose despite a small increase in output over the weekend and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That small output increase came as some drillers restarted their Gulf of Mexico production now that Hurricane Helene passed through the area. The decline in demand, meanwhile, was due in part to a reduction in the amount of gas power generators will likely need to burn with over 1.9 million homes and businesses still without power in the U.S. Southeast and Midwest after Helene battered the region late last week. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea had a 40% chance of strengthening into a cyclone as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. The average output for September, however, was higher than seen last week as some Gulf of Mexico production returned to service. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 95.9 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants eased to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.

Natural gas storage sees lower-than-expected increase, surpasses previous figures The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported on the latest numbers in the natural gas storage sector, revealing a less-than-anticipated increase in the storage of natural gas. The actual increase came in at 55 billion cubic feet (B), lower than the forecasted 59B, implying a stronger demand for natural gas. The actual figure of 55B, while lower than the forecasted increase, still surpasses the previous figure of 47B. This indicates a continued growth in natural gas storage, albeit at a slower rate than initially predicted. The EIA's Natural Gas Storage report is a key indicator of the health of the energy sector, measuring the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage over the past week. Despite being a U.S. indicator, it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector. The lower than expected increase in natural gas inventories implies a greater demand for natural gas, which is bullish for natural gas prices. Conversely, if the increase in inventories had been more than expected, it would have suggested weaker demand and been bearish for natural gas prices. The latest figures, while lower than expected, still point to a continued growth in natural gas storage, signaling a robust energy sector.

US natgas gains about 3% on higher demand view, output cut (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 3% on Thursday, supported by forecasts for higher demand over the next week than previously anticipated, a drop in output and a federal report showing a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly storage build last week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.4 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27. That was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. "The storage injection was within the bracketed range, slightly under, which should have been supportive, but I think the market had priced in sort of a more dramatic event," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, adding that the report was basically a non-event. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 19 of the past 20 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 6% above normal levels for this time of year due to low heating demand during the mild winter of 2023-2024. Financial firm LSEG estimated 141 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 136 estimated on Wednesday. LSEG estimated average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.3 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week to 95.7 bcfd next week. One factor that has weighed on gas prices in recent days was the reduction in the amount that gas power generators need to burn, with about a million homes and businesses still without power in the U.S. Southeast and Midwest after Hurricane Helene battered the region late last week. "The demand destruction caused by the catastrophic path of Helene will continue to overhang the market for a few weeks," Cunningham said. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices eased on Thursday morning but remain near their highest levels in a month as concerns persist over disruption to gas production in the Middle East as conflict in the region intensifies. NG/EU Global gas demand is forecast to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025, largely supported by Asia, which alone is expected to account for more than half of incremental gas demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.

US natgas snaps five-week winning streak on demand concerns (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday, snapping a five-week winning streak on weaker demand outlook even as the latest federal report showed utilities added a smaller-than-normal amount of gas into storage last week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.6 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.854 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices hit their highest level since mid-June at $3.019 this week, but the contract posted a weekly decline of about 2%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27 which was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll. That compares with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL "We're probably getting the last blast of summer demand. We're probably heading in to a more shoulder-like season as far as demand and I think that's why we pulled back," "Supplies going into the winter season are coming in lower than previous expectations, that's raising some hopes in the industry that has been hurt by low prices that there could be some light on the horizon," The front-month contract has gained about 60% since late August, mainly due to a drop in the amount of fuel going into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season. Storage injections in July, August and likely in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. They have remained relatively low since that time. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Financial firm LSEG estimated 142 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 141 estimated on Thursday. Average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, was seen at 95.6 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week and 95.4 bcfd next week, LSEG forecast. "Natural gas is also getting a boost from the delay of the longshoreman strike. There was a lot of concern that natural gas demand could have plummeted had the strike continued for a period of time on fears that factories would shut down production of petrochemicals and plastics, so the market is getting a bullish relief," Flynn added. U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century, but clearing the cargo backlog will take time. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely flat on Friday morning, after rising on Thursday afternoon, as lower demand and stable supply were expected.

Geopolitical Risks, Unsettled Weather Patterns Place LNG Market On Edge as Winter Nears - After several mild winters and a drop in global natural gas prices this year, rising geopolitical tensions and weather risks have clouded forecasts for LNG and gas prices in winter 2024/2025. Bar chart showing European LNG imports by country. Most analysts have signaled a rise in both demand and natural gas prices this winter as cold sets in, but some traders have pointed to uncertainty as Europe is expected to see the end of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine. Meanwhile, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has threatened to spill out into broader regional fighting, which could place much-needed liquefied natural gas supplies at risk.

NGSA Forecasts Colder Winter Giving ‘Upward Pressure’ to U.S. Natural Gas Prices -A return to average winter weather conditions this upcoming heating season could provide upward support to U.S. natural gas prices compared with last season’s relatively mild climate, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). Forecast of changes in winter supply/demand. “We’re heading into a cooler winter well prepared with record production and storage,” NGSA Chairman Freeman Shaheen said Thursday during the group's 2024 Winter Outlook. For the upcoming winter (November-March), NGSA forecast 7% more heating degree days (HDD) of demand from colder weather over last winter. The forecast, which included analysis from Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) for the outlook, called for heating demand to be near the 10-year average at 3,433 HDDs.

Natural Gas, Oil Exports Seen Insulated from Eastern, Gulf Coast Strike Impacts - As tens of thousands of union members strike at ports across the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, oil and natural gas exports are largely expected to continue uninterrupted – at least in the short term. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) directed members at container terminals at 36 ports spanning Texas to Maine to begin strike actions after leadership denied the latest contract offer from the the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The current six-year contract between the ILA and the USMX, which represents employers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, expired at midnight Tuesday. While the strike means an immediate work stoppage for the movement of cargo like containers, breakbulk and vehicles, University of Houston’s Margaret Kidd, program director and instructional associate professor for Supply Chain & Logistics, told NGI impacts to commodities markets would likely be avoided if both parties come to a compromise soon.

Oil and gas waste disposal is endangering drinking water sources – NRDC --The oil and gas industry generates massive volumes of dangerous wastewater each day: In 2021, U.S. wells createdalmost 1.1 trillion gallons. That’s approximately 3 billion gallons every day of produced water and fracking flowback. More than 95 percent of this wastewater was injected underground into waste disposal wells. This wastewater, generated by fracking and oil and gas production, can be toxic and highly radioactive. When it’s injected underground it’s regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act’s Underground Injection Control (UIC) program, which is supposed to protect underground sources of drinking water from potential dangers in wastewater, including radioactive material, heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and more.Unfortunately, regulation often falls short of protecting communities and natural resources. Back in 2019, NRDC published a report on some of the failures of the UIC program. We concluded that the program’s oversight is characterized by a pattern of exemptions and exceptions and a lack of transparency. Our report also did a deep dive into one state’s program—West Virginia, with a detailed analysis of state records. We found that the state had failed to effectively administer its UIC program in accordance with the SDWA’s requirements and the state’s own regulations.But it’s not only West Virginia that has been suspected of lax regulation of underground injection of oil and gas wastes. In California, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found in 2014 that the state was not administering its oil and gas UIC program in accordance with approved statute and regulation. Concerns about problems in Texas and Ohio have also surfaced over the years. Now this issue is in the headlines again and is only getting more threatening as the amount of waste increases around the country.In Texas, hundreds of millions of gallons of oil and gas wastewater are injected every day and serious problems continue to be reported around the state. Earlier this year, local organizations asked the U.S. EPA to revoke the state’s authority to run the program in Texas because “the State ofTexas has utterly failed to implement and enforce strong protections to ensure the oil and gas waste from Class II underground injection wells do not contaminate aquifers.” Poorly regulated underground waste disposal wells areleaking this waste. In one case in Crane County, wastewater migrated about 12 miles underground before blowing out in 2022; almost 15 million gallons of wastewater shot out of the ground before the leak was stopped. The U.S. EPA has agreed to do an “extensive and thorough technical and legal review” of Texas’ regulatory practices.In Ohio, community organizations came to the similar conclusion that there were “systemic and longstanding failures” by the state to comply with its legal obligations to protect underground sources of drinking water from the dangers of oil and gas waste. There have been leaks miles away from faulty disposal wells—one leak in Noble County reached a stream and ended up killing hundreds of animals. Citizen groups asked EPA to remove Ohio’s authority view in 2022, but EPA has not yet taken any action. In the meantime, the state has shut down some waste disposal wells that were found to be leaking and endangering underground sources of drinking water, rivers and streams. It’s not enough, but it’s a start.Oklahoma is another state with examples of problematic underground injection disposal wells. In one case, leaking injection wells were discovered in 2019 when wastewater started bubbling out of the ground on a farm in Kingfisher County. The waste flowed across a field all the way to a creek, another farm, and then a pond. Acres of crops were ruined. It’s estimated that more than one million gallons of this potentially toxic and radioactive material leaked out of the ground over a one-and-a-half year period.Special loopholes carved out for the oil and gas industry in our bedrock environmental laws allow its waste to be disposed of in underground injection wells that are not designed to the standards necessary to safely hold hazardous waste-- regardless of how toxic or radioactive this waste might be. Our federal and state laws for oil and gas waste are too weak to adequately protect public health—it’s past time for new laws and regulations to ensure safer methods for the management, storage, transport, and disposal of this waste.

Diamondback Subsidiary Viper Closes $900MM Midland Royalty Deal - Diamondback Energy subsidiary Viper Energy has closed a previously announced acquisition of Midland Basin mineral and royalty interests for roughly $915 million, Viper said on Oct. 1.Viper agreed in September to acquire the mineral and royalty-owning subsidiaries of Tumbleweed Royalty IV LLC. Tumbleweed was founded in 2014 by Cody Campbell and John Sellers, the co-executives behind Permian E&P Double Eagle Energy.Combined with other recent deals with Tumbleweed, Viper has acquired about $1.1 billion from Tumbleweed and its affiliates.Viper paid for the acquisition with $459 million in cash and 10.1 million OpCo units. Based on the $45.13 closing price of Viper units on Sept. 11, the equity portion of the deal that closed Oct. 1 was worth approximately $456 million. Tumbleweed Royalty was also granted an option to acquire the same number of shares of Viper's Class B common stock as the OpCo units Viper was paid.The deal with Tumbleweed IV also includes a potential additional payment of up to $41 million cash in first-quarter 2026, based on average 2025 WTI oil prices.In September, Viper closed two other Permian Basin acquisitions from Tumbleweed-Q Royalty Partners LLC and MC Tumbleweed Royalty LLC for a combined cash consideration of $189 million.Combined, the acquisitions represent approximately 3,727 net royalty acres in the Permian Basin—3,237 in the Midland Basin and 490 in the Delaware Basin. Viper expects Diamondback to complete between 120 and 140 gross locations beyond existing DUCs and permits on the acquired properties through the end of 2026 at an average ~3% net royalty interest.

Nearly 400 gallons of oil spilled in Smith Canal in Stockton — Nearly 400 gallons of oil spilled in the Smith Canal in Stockton on Friday. Officials are now investigating this as an illegal dumping case. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife was notified Friday that a petroleum oil spill had occurred in the state waters of the Smith Canal, according to department officials. The source of the spill appears to be from an oil burner that had a potential maximum capacity of 380 gallons, though authorities have not specified how much oil has gone into the canal. A neighbor, who wants to stay anonymous, and lives directly in front of where the spill happened, told KCRA 3 that he witnesses multiple illegal dumpings along the canal on a weekly basis. "I didn't think anything of it because they drop so much garbage around here. It's kind of pointless trying to stop and yell and trying to pick a fight with every single person," said the neighbor. The United States Coast Guard is taking the lead in the investigation. In a statement, they said, "Crews from the Stockton Fire Department and the Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response responded initially and deployed a sorbent boom to minimize environmental impacts. An additional layer of a hard boom was deployed on both sides of the spill site to prevent product from entering into the San Joaquin River." KCRA noticed a white tarp over an area near the bank of the canal, where investigators confirmed that the oil container was left. They removed it Sunday afternoon. "It's a really sad event that happened for that to end up in the water. Hopefully, it has a good outcome in the end, that is what we're hoping for," said the neighbor. The Coast Guard has also opened the federal Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, established for various issues related to oil spills, including clean-up costs, to pay for the initial response to the Stockton spill and containment and recovery of the oil released into the canal. The San Joaquin County Office of Emergency Services has advised community members living along the banks or near the canal to avoid the area of the spill and stay out of the water. Officials also cautioned pet owners to keep animals out of water and not let them drink from the canal. Fish and Wildlife are asking the public to not catch and consume any fish or shellfish in the area. State and federal agencies are still searching for the person who caused the spill.

Second oil company CEO conspired with OPEC to keep prices high, FTC charges - Federal regulators are alleging a major oil company CEO conspired with foreign governments to keep oil and gas prices high. On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a complaint against John B. Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, accusing him of secretly communicating with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Hess’s company had sought a $53 billion merger with oil giant Chevron — a deal that the FTC ruled could go forward only if Hess himself was not involved with the subsequent company. “We are very pleased that our merger with Chevron has cleared this significant regulatory hurdle,” Hess said in a statement. “This transaction continues to be an outstanding deal for Hess and Chevron shareholders and will create a premier integrated energy company that is ideally positioned for the energy transition.” But while Hess will remain on as an advisor to Chevron concerning the new company’s business operations in Guyana, he will not get a seat on its board. The FTC asserted in its complaint that his direct involvement in the new conglomerate would “heighten the risk of harm” to market competition, and would “meaningfully increase” the risk of the kind of backdoor coordination between rivals that is barred by federal antitrust law. Hess, the FTC charged, urged OPEC officials to push publicly and privately for “inventory management,” or reduced pumping and fracking with the goal of driving up prices. That goal cuts against the principal selling point of the shale boom for American consumers, the FTC charges. The record U.S. oil and gas production allowed by tools like fracking and directional drilling have undercut the “artificially low production levels and associated artificially high prices OPEC oil producers seek to set,” the agency said. With 50 percent of global oil production under its control, OPEC has historically been able to influence or even set global prices, the FTC noted — something that would be illegal if carried out within the U.S. As the U.S. fracking boom crashed global oil prices, “OPEC officials had an incentive to coordinate with these [U.S.] rivals rather than compete,” the agency charged. Hess, in statements included in the filing, has praised OPEC’s price-controlling pumping. He said in a 2021 Hess earnings call that the cartel’s leadership had done a “masterful job [in] giving the market what it needs, but not oversupplying it,” and that “OPEC, I think, has done a great job managing the oil market.”

Québec May Have to Pay Questerre $4.8B for Utica Drilling Ban - Marcellus Drilling News - The province of Québec, Canada, with a huge supply of Utica Shale gas sitting beneath it, passed a new law in 2022 outlawing all oil and natural gas production throughout the province (see Quebec Pulls Trigger & Commits Energy Suicide – Bans All O&G Prod.). It was a breathtaking grab of totalitarian power. It’s also energy suicide. Québec said it would pay a piddly $79.5 million (US) to expropriate the oil and gas drilling rights of companies owning those rights in the province. We’ve seen estimates that those rights are worth more than $5 billion. Questerre Energy, which owns more than 1 million acres of leases and an estimated 6 Tcf of Utica Shale reserves in the province, sued Quebec.

Steelhead LNG Takes Cedar Patent Fight to South Korea - Infrastructure developer Steelhead LNG Corp. has sued to stop construction of the proposed liquefied natural gas export facility in Kitimat, British Columbia (BC), advancing its fight over allegations other companies infringed on its plans for low-carbon exports from Western Canada. Map showing natural gas pipeline routes to Western Canada's Cedar LNG with associated project infrastructure. Vancouver-based Steelhead LNG filed a suit in South Korea against the Cedar LNG joint venture, Pembina Pipeline Corp. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. (SHI) for allegedly infringing on its patents. The company previously filed a similar suit against Rockies LNG Ltd. over construction of the Ksi Lisim LNG project being constructed and designed by Samsung and Black and Veatch. "Steelhead LNG has dedicated significant resources to developing its unique LNG export facility solution,” President Victor Ojeda said. “Our intellectual property is the cornerstone of that effort, and we have a responsibility to safeguard it against unauthorized use.”

Slovak gas buyer SPP says talks continue to extend Ukraine transit -Slovak state-owned gas buyer SPP is continuing negotiations to secure an extension of gas transit through Ukraine after Kyiv's contract with Russian supplier Gazprom expires at the end of the year, and several options are on the table, SPP Chief Executive Vojtech Ferencz said on Thursday. Ukraine has said it does not want to renew the transit deal but some central European countries rely on Russian gas delivered through pipelines that cross the country. SPP has been a leading voice in trying to keep the transit open despite Russia's war with Ukraine, as alternative routes are more costly and it faces potential bottlenecks in other pipelines. "When I put all the risks together, I believe that the transit should be and must be maintained in order to avoid artificial costs in central Europe,” Ferencz said on the sidelines of a gas conference in Slovak mountain resort of Horny Smokovec. “I have the feeling that things will somehow fall into place...in 2019 the transit extension was also signed in December. There are many open options for what can happen.” Ferencz, fresh from a trip to Baku, confirmed that one option was the potential involvement of Azeri firm SOCAR, which could ship gas through Ukrainian territory and avoid the need for Kyiv to deal with Gazprom, but he stressed nothing had been agreed yet. He said the simplest way of involving SOCAR would be if it handed back the gas to Gazprom on the Ukraine-Slovak border - allowing Gazprom to continue servicing its European customers. SOCAR did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of business hours. Discussions with Kyiv about maintaining the status quo were also continuing, Ferencz added, despite Ukraine's rejection of that scenario. The transit could also be done under ownership of other intermediaries, including a possible consortium involving SPP, or Gazprom may try to find an alternative delivery route, Ferencz said. SPP, providing for two thirds of Slovak consumption, takes 3 Bm3y of gas from Gazprom under a contract lasting until 2034. A total of 14 Bm3 of Russian gas is expected to have flowed through Ukraine this year and any renewed arrangement should maintain these volumes, Ferencz said, as shipping only to Slovakia would raise transit costs too much. He added that he would also travel to Brussels to discuss European Commission backing for a new arrangement. Whatever happens, Ferencz said SPP's 14 TWh of storage was nearly full and the company had an option for another 3 TWh of gas in storage, along with five alternative supply contracts and two more under negotiation, safely sufficient to cover its customers in the coming heating season.

QatarEnergy LNG Awards McDermott EPCI Contract for the North Field South Offshore Pipelines and Cables Project -- -- McDermott has been awarded an engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract by QatarEnergy LNG for the North Field South (NFS) Offshore Pipelines and Cables Project. This new contract is in addition to the awards received by McDermott earlier for the NFS Pipelines FEED, the NFS Jackets EPCI, and the NFXP Topsides and Pipelines which included the NFS Topsides.The NFS infrastructure is designed to supply feed gas for two additional LNG trains and is part of the North Field Expansion Project (NFXP), which will help increase the total LNG production in the State of Qatar from the current 77 million tons per annum (MTPA) to 142 MTPA."McDermott is unique in Qatar in that we have been operating and supporting the offshore energy industry since its early developments in the 1990s. Consequently, we have a long history within the energy sector there and have followed its growth from that time until today," said Mike Sutherland, McDermott's Senior Vice President, Offshore Middle East. "We look forward to continuing to work closely with QatarEnergy LNG to contribute to the completion of this strategic offshore development."The scope of the contract comprises EPCI of almost 250 kilometers of offshore and onshore gas pipelines connecting five new offshore wellhead platforms with two new onshore LNG trains in addition to subsea composite power and control cables. The project will be managed from the McDermott Doha office with in-country fabrication support from the QFAB fabrication yard, and will be installed with McDermott's inhouse marine assets.

Japan top buyer of LNG from Russia's Sakhalin 2 -Japan is currently the biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's Sakhalin 2 plant accounting for 57.5% of its exports, Interfax news agency quoted a company senior manager as saying on Thursday. Japan has reduced its imports of Russian energy since the start of Russian's military conflict with Ukraine but has kept stakes in several fossil fuel projects in Russia. China has accounted for 26.3% of Sakhalin 2's LNG supplies followed by South Korea at 16.2%, Interfax quoted the company's chief of marketing unit Leonid Alexandrov as saying. He did not specify a timeframe. Japan reduced its LNG purchases from Russia by 11% last year to 6.1 metric MMt, though Moscow remained Japan's third biggest supplier with a 9% share behind Australia and Malaysia. Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi have 12.5% and 10% stakes, respectively, in Sakhalin 2, which is led by Russia's Gazprom. The plant delivers more than 80% of its LNG under long- and medium-term contracts while the rest is sold on the spot market, Interfax reported. Alexandrov said global LNG demand is likely to slightly exceed supply until 2027, which will underpin LNG prices, it reported.

EIA: China extracting commercially viable natural gas from deeper shale formations - China is a major natural gas importer by pipeline and the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last 10 years, the Chinese government has actively supported the development of unconventional natural gas resources to reduce import dependence and enhance energy security, notes the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).According to a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGCI), the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in 2023 produced natural gas from shale in the Low Cambrian formation in the Sichuan Basin at a depth exceeding 14,760 feet—marking the first time that commercially viable natural gas was produced from this deeper formation. SPGCI reported that the Zi 201 well initially produced 26.1 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), a commercial rate that could signify the entry of the Cambrian formation into a new phase of large-scale shale gas development. Currently, only two of China’s national oil companies—CNPC and the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)—produce shale gas, mainly from the existing fields in the Silurian Longmaxi formation of the Sichuan Basin. At an average depth of 11,500 feet, the Silurian Longmaxi shale formation is shallower than the Low Cambrian.China’s domestic shale gas production averaged 2.51 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023, up from 0.02 Bcf/d in 2013, according to data compiled by SPGCI. Since 2013, Chinese companies have gained a greater geological understanding of shale formations and deployed more advanced hydraulic and automation techniques, steadily growing shale gas production. However, EIA estimates that shale gas accounted for just 12% of China’s domestic natural gas production of 21.7 Bcf/d in 2023 as geological and cost issues have hampered more rapid development. In 2023, China’s natural gas imports averaged 16.0 Bcf/d and accounted for 42% of China’s total natural gas supply, compared with 15% of its supply in 2010.Following the release of China’s 14^th Five-Year Plan in 2021, policy directives continued to support development of unconventional natural gas resources. Production from unconventional formations, such as tight gas, shale gas, and coal-bed methane in China averaged 8.6 Bcf/d in 2023.Currently, China is one of four countries in the world where commercial volumes of shale gas are being produced. The others are the United States, Canada, and Argentina. EIA’s World Shale Resource Assessments report of 2015 estimated 1,115 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas resources from the seven most prospective of China’s natural gas basins. More than half of these resources are in the Sichuan Basin (626 trillion cubic feet). The southwest region of the Sichuan Basin dominates China’s shale leasing and drilling activity because it offers China’s best combination of favorable geology, flat surface conditions for accessibility, existing pipelines, abundant water supplies, and access to major urban natural gas markets. Other parts of the Sichuan Basin are structurally or topographically complex or have elevated hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) contamination that makes commercial shale gas development more challenging.

Australian Domestic Natural Gas Surplus Thins, Creating More Global LNG Supply Risk -Australia’s domestic market watchdog has warned that the country’s LNG exporters have contracted more volumes to overseas buyers than previously estimated, shrinking the already fragile surplus of domestic natural gas supply for the coming year. Supply/demand balances of Australia's East Coast natural gas. Since 2017, the Australian government has tasked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) with monitoring the country’s natural gas supply balance and reporting price and production forecasts. The eastern supply balance has become increasingly important to the global market as the Australian government continues to rely on liquefied natural gas exporters diverting surplus feed gas to avoid triggering mandatory bans on LNG exports. In its latest interim update reported in September, ACCC researchers disclosed the gas supply surplus for Australia’s eastern coast is forecast between 12 and 27 petajoules (PJ) for the first three months of 2025. It was a revision down from the 26-35 PJ surplus estimate in June

TTF, JKM Climb as Israel Steps Up Attacks Against Iranian Proxies in Lebanon, Yemen – Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Yemen pushed European and Asian natural gas prices higher on Monday as the market continued to weigh the potential for LNG supply disruptions in the region as tensions ratcheted up. European Union Natural Gas Storage. (graphic) The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe gained for a fourth straight session after adding 5% last week. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) spot and futures prices remained stable in the mid-$13/MMBtu range and followed TTF higher Monday. “With continued escalations in the MIddle East, which show no signs of abating, markets remain nervous and remain elevated,” said UK consultancy Auxilione in a note on Monday.

NOSDRA, SDN tackle oil spillage in the Niger Delta - The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), in collaboration with the international non-governmental organization Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN), is taking steps to tackle oil spillage and promote environmental sustainability in the Niger Delta. NOSDRA’s Director General, Chukwuemeka Woke, has reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to ensuring a clean and healthy environment through this partnership, which he believes will significantly enhance NOSDRA’s efforts. Woke made this statement during a courtesy visit from the SDN team, led by Adam Heals, in Abuja, emphasizing NOSDRA’s mandate to maintain environmental integrity in the Niger Delta and expressing the agency’s dedication to furthering discussions on the issue. According to the DG, “We have a mandate to ensure a clean environment in our country, the partnership with SDN has brought productivity to the Niger Delta for its twenty years of existence in the region. Our ultimate goal is to see a clean and sustainable environment for Nigeria, and indeed for the world,” The representative of SDN, Adams Heals emphasized the organisation’s role in partnership with NOSDRA, particularly through the development of a satellite-based methane tracker aimed at identifying oil spillage hotspots. Heals explained that methane, a potent greenhouse gas, poses a significant threat to climate stability, with its impact being far more severe than carbon dioxide. However, he noted that addressing methane emissions is a crucial step toward achieving long-term climate goals. This cutting-edge technology, he said will enable regulators, including NOSDRA, to collaborate with oil and gas companies to address emissions and minimize environmental damage. Key innovations like the oil spill monitor and gas flare tracker have been developed through NOSDRA-SDN collaboration. These joint efforts have produced a prototype of a methane tracker for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, a project supported by funding from the Dutch government. Both organisations remain optimistic about their continued cooperation in protecting Nigeria’s environment.

Bulk carrier grounds in super typhoon off Taiwan - Authorities in Taiwan deployed a number of helicopters yesterday to rescue all the crew onboard the Blue Lagoon, a Barbados-flagged, 79,500 dwt bulk carrier, which ran aground in a super typhoon on Orchid Island, off the east coast of Taiwan, with fears growing of a possible oil spill. The 229 m long bulk carrier is loaded with 67,500 tons of ore, 39 tons of marine oil, and 227 tons of fuel oil. The ship took on water, the engine room flooded and it began to list at which point the crew evacuated. The crew consisted of nine Egyptian nationals, seven Ukrainians, and three Russians.Oil was reportedly seen in the water around the 14-year-old ship, which is owned by Nova Gemi from Turkey.

Iranian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Oil Transfer Causes Large Spill in Persian Gulf -- A ship-to-ship transfer of Iranian crude oil between two dark tankers has resulted in a substantial oil spill in the Persian Gulf in the waters adjacent to Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran.The transfer took place between the two Aframax tankersFortune Galaxy (9257010) and Serano II (9165542) on September 29 and 30. A five kilometer-long oil slick is easily visible on satellite imagery.The incident was first reported by industry site TankerTrackers, which categorized it as a large spill totalling around 5,400 barrels. “These spills happen regularly and go unreported,” the company said in a post. With more than 2,000 ship-to-ship transfers by shadow fleet vessels around the world every year spills are a routine occurrence, say industry insiders. In 2023 nearly 400 millions barrels of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan oil was transferred between ships.Officially there have only been three major and 55 smaller oil spills across the global oceans in the last 25 years, though the actual figure is almost certainly much higher.Shadow fleet operations generally rely on aging and often underinsured tankers, as was the case in Fortune Galaxy andSerano II with both vessels older than 25 years. With the recent introduction of both oil and LNG shadow fleets operating in the Arctic, the environmental stakes have escalated further.This summer has seen the transfer of more than 10 million barrels of sanctioned Russian crude oil via the icy Arctic waters of the Northern Sea Route. While some vessels possess light ice-class protection, others do not. And lower ice-classes do not offer substantial protection, especially against layers of multi-year ice. “Yet another huge ice class 1C crude oil tanker on the Northern Sea Route. Even with a low ice-class it still makes me uncomfortable,” one Arctic shipping expert told gCaptain. This year thick sea ice persisted around Wrangel Island requiring continuous work by nuclear icebreakers to keep shipping lanes open.Other vessels had to take substantial detours to avoid running into any sea ice. “Ship had to perform an evasive maneuver just north-east of Wrangel Island to avoid troublesome ice. Unescorted, and with officers inexperienced in the hashtag Arctic, presumably, it seems reckless to allow such ships on the NSR, endangering the crew and with an environmental “Titanic risk,” says Kjell Eikland, founder of shipping data provider Eikland Energy.

OPEC+ Leaves Current Output Cut Policy Unchanged at JMMC - The OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) concluded on Wednesday, with the ministers refraining from making any changes to production policy, maintaining the plan to start raising output in December. "The JMMC emphasized the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation. Furthermore, the Committee will continuously assess market conditions,” OPEC said in a post-meeting statement, according to Charles Kennedy ofOilPrice.com. Once again, ministers cautioned cartel members who continue to produce above quota. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee puts the emphasis (again!) on cheating (compliance, on the cartel's speak). Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia claim they fully met their quotas in September (count my as skeptical). #OOTT pic.twitter.com/ZeqwkVEreZ (@JavierBlas) October 2, 2024 The WSJ reported on Wednesday that Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman allegedly warned OPEC+ ministers that if some members insisted on continually violating their quota agreements, oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel. Iraq and Kazakhstan are the most often cited violators of the output-cut agreement. While both countries have reported that they were in compliance in September, the official numbers will not be available to verify until next week, according to Reuters. This is part of the escalating Saudi threat to raise its price target and regain market share it has given up by bearing the heaviest burden of oil output cuts. The Kingdom has been going above and beyond to restrict supply to the market for more than a year. Apart from its share of the OPEC+ cuts in force since last summer, Saudi Arabia is also voluntarily keeping another 1 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market. It has been strictly sticking to its plan to produce “around 9 million bpd”—it has been consistently in line with its targeted oil output over the past year. However, shortly after the report, OPEC itself took the unprecedented step of refuting the WSJ article, claiming that "the article falsely reported that a conference call took place in which the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister allegedly warned OPEC+ members of a potential price drop to $50 per barrel should they fail to comply with agreed production cuts. It also attributed an alleged quote to the Minister, stating: "Some better shut up and respect their commitments toward OPEC+." These claims are entirely unfounded."OPEC secretariat stresses that no such conference call occurred last week, nor has any call or video conference taken place since the last OPEC+ meeting on September 5. The alleged statements, attributed to unnamed sources, lack any credibility and are completely fabricated.With reference to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, dated 2 October 2024, titled "Saudi Oil Min Said Prices May Fall to $50/B if Others Cheat, Sources Say," the OPEC Secretariat categorically refutes the claims made within the story as wholly inaccurate and misleading. The denial prompted some to speculate if the Biden admin was pretending to OPEC members and leaking fake news to Reuters, WSJ and FT.

The Market Weighed the Prospect of Increased Supply - The oil market on Monday continued to trade sideways, within last Thursday’s trading range. The market weighed the prospect of increased supply against escalating tensions in the Middle East. The crude market remained pressured by the reports that Saudi Arabia is committed to OPEC+ increasing its production in December and the expectations that Libya’s shut in oil production will resume following the news that Libya’s eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new governor of the central bank. However, its losses remain limited by fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail Iranian crude supply. The crude market rallied to a high of $69.32 in overnight trading following the reports over the weekend of Israel conducting strikes that killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and hit Houthi targets in Yemen, three groups that are supported by Iran. However, the market erased its gains and posted a low of $67.57 early in the morning before it once again retraced its losses as the market weighs whether the Middle East conflict will spread in the region. The November WTI contract settled up 1 cent at $68.17, while the November Brent contract settled down 2 cents at $71.77. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 9 points at $2.1318 and the RB market settling up 91 points. The EIA reported that U.S. oil demand increased in July to the highest seasonal level since 2019 while output declined for the second time in three months. Total oil consumption increased 1.2% from June to 20.48 million bpd in July, the highest for that month since 2019. Demand for both gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel was at the highest seasonal levels since 2019, whereas jet fuel demand of 1.83 million bpd was the highest for any month since August 2019. Total U.S. oil production fell by 25,000 bpd from June to 13.205 million bpd in July. On Friday, Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut. The Israeli military said on Saturday it had eliminated Nasrallah in the strike on the group’s central command headquarters in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said his government was ready to fully implement a U.N. resolution that had aimed to end Hezbollah’s armed presence south of the Litani River as part of an agreement to stop the war with Israel. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, said Tehran would not let any of Israel’s “criminal acts” go unanswered. He was referring to the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian Guard deputy commander, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who died in the same strikes on Friday. The Palestinian militant group Hamas said an Israeli airstrike killed its leader in Lebanon in the city of Tyre on Monday, and another Palestinian organization said three of its leaders died in a strike in central Beirut, the first such hit inside the capital’s limits. Another group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said three of its leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut’s Kola district. The United States has urged a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Lebanon but has also authorized its military to reinforce in the region. U.S President Joe Biden called for a ceasefire in Lebanon on Monday but a U.S. official said Israeli troop deployments suggested a ground incursion against Hezbollah militants could be imminent.

Oil slumps 17% in Q3 as Middle East conflict offset by slowing demand (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday, but posted a 17% loss for the third quarter as fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail crude supply were overshadowed by waning global demand concerns. Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expired on Monday, fell 21 cents to settle at $71.77 a barrel. Meanwhile, the more actively traded Brent contract for December delivery gained 27 cents to $71.81. The global benchmark posted a 9% drop in September, its biggest monthly decline since November 2022, and after falling a third consecutive month, it slumped 17% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly loss in a year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell a cent to settle at $68.17. The U.S. benchmark tumbled 7% in September in its biggest monthly decline since October 2023, and slumped 16% in its biggest quarterly drop since the third quarter 2023. On Monday, prices were supported by the possibility that Iran, a key producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, may be directly drawn into a widening Middle East conflict. Since last week, Israel has escalated attacks, conducting strikes which have killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and hit Houthi targets in Yemen. The three groups are backed by Iran. The market is weighing whether the Middle East conflict will spread in the region, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics. Oil prices had a muted response to Beijing's announcement last week of fiscal stimulus measures in the world's second-biggest economy and top oil importer. Traders question whether the measures will be enough to boost China's weaker-than-expected demand so far this year. Concerns about rising global crude supplies are also weighing on prices for the month. Oil prices slid last week on a report that Saudi Arabia, which is the de facto leader of OPEC, was preparing to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output. "We are proceeding on the premise that last week's Saudi decision to ramp up production in December will be an overriding bearish consideration to this market for weeks to come," Data on Monday was not encouraging for demand, showing China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month and the services sector slowed sharply in September. The prospect of Libyan oil output recovering also weighed on the market. Libya's eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, a move that could help end the crisis that slashed the country's oil output.

Libya’s Output Expected to Recover After an Agreement The oil market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day after it continued to trade for two consecutive days within last Thursday’s trading range. The market was initially pressured by the prospect of increased supply, with Libya’s output expected to recover after an agreement on a new head of the central bank was reached and the official and his deputy took their oath before Libya’s parliament on Tuesday. The market was also pressured by the expectation that OPEC+ will increase its output by 180,000 bpd starting in December. The crude market traded mostly sideways before it sold off sharply and breached its previous lows as it posted a low of $66.33. However, the market bounced off that level and rallied amid reports of a U.S. official stating that the U.S. had indications that Iran was preparing to imminently launch a missile attack against Israel. The market extended its gains to $3.77 as it posted a high of $71.94 after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. The November WTI contract later erased some of its gains ahead of the close and settled up $1.66 at $69.83, while the December Brent contract settled up $1.86 at $73.56. The product markets ended sharply higher as well with the heating oil market settling up 1.98 cents at $2.1742 and the RB market settling up 3.15 cents at $1.9666. Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Reuters journalists saw missiles intercepted in the airspace of neighboring Jordan. Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards said they launched tens of missiles towards Israel and warned that if Israel retaliated Iran’s response would be “more crushing and destructive.” The missile launches were ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israeli media reports said nearly 200 missiles had been launched into Israel from Iran. Earlier, the military had announced that any ballistic missile strike from Iran was expected to be widespread and told the public to shelter in safe rooms in the event of an attack. Iran had vowed to retaliate following attacks that killed the top leadership of its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. The firing of missiles came after Israel said its troops had launched ground raids into Lebanon, though it described the attacks as limited. In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States was prepared to help Israel defend itself from Iranian missile attacks. A senior White House official, the U.S. was actively supporting preparations to defend Israel against the possible attack. Iran had vowed to strike Israel for the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in southern Beirut and the killing of Hamas’ political leader while in Tehran. Earlier, Israel said intense fighting erupted with Hezbollah in south Lebanon on Tuesday after its paratroops and commandos launched raids there, at the start of a ground incursion and following airstrikes against Hezbollah’s leadership. Russia called on Israel to withdraw troops from Lebanon, warning that the attack would lead to a further escalation of violence in the Middle East.

Oil prices rise 3% after Iran launches missiles at Israel (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 3% on Tuesday after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Brent futures gained $1.86, or 2.6%, to settle at $73.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.66, or 2.4%, to settle at $69.83. Earlier in the day, both crude benchmarks were up by over 5%. Alarms sounded across Israel and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem and the Jordan River valley after Israelis piled into bomb shelters. Clay Seigle, an independent political risk strategist, said in an email that Israel "will not hesitate to widen its military offensive to hit Iran directly. And Iran's oil assets are very likely on the target list." An Israeli attack on Iranian oil production or export facilities could cause a material disruption, potentially more than a million barrels per day, Seigle said. In the Red Sea, meanwhile, another Iran-backed group, the Houthis in Yemen, claimed responsibility for attacking at least one of two vessels damaged off the port of Hodeidah. The Houthis have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since last November in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. "In case of an escalation, Iran's proxies, the Houthi rebels and Iraqi paramilitaries, might launch attacks on Middle East oil producers, namely Saudi Arabia," "There is now a genuine fear that oil supply will be impacted, and nervous and volatile trading is anticipated until the picture becomes clear," Before news that Iran was planning a missile attack, the oil market was trading down near a two-week low as the outlook for increased supplies and tepid global demand growth outweighed fears over an escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on crude exports from the region. A panel of ministers from the OPEC+ producer group will meet on Oct. 2 to review the market, with no policy changes expected. Starting in December, the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies such as Russia is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 bpd each month. In addition, the possibility that Libyan oil output will recover also weighed on the market earlier on Tuesday. Libya's eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, which could help to end a crisis that has reduced the country's oil output. Iran and Libya are both members of OPEC. Iran, which is operating under U.S. sanctions, produced about 4.0 million bpd of fuel in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million bpd last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

WTI Holds Gains Despite Surprise Crude Build (Biggest Since June) --Oil prices continues to rise (amid geopolitical tensions), supported by an API-reported crude draw overnight and OPEC+ headlines denying any apparent rift or plans to increase production aggressively. “Iran sits astride the world’s most strategic energy region, oil- and gas- production facilities and transit choke points,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to president George W Bush. “So, when Iran is involved in a shooting war with its neighbours, you have to price in some geopolitical disruption risk, especially when it comes to Israel,” he added. Will the already low (tank bottoms) Cushing (and total crude) stockpiles get tested further...API

• Crude -1.46mm (unch exp)
• Cushing +700k
• Gasoline +900k (-300k exp)
• Distillates -2.7mm (-1.4mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +3.889mm (unch exp) - biggest build since April
• Cushing +840k
• Gasoline +1.119mm (-300k exp)
• Distillates -1.284mm (-1.4mm exp)

In direct conflict with API's report, the official data shows a large 3.9mm barrel build in crude stocks (and an increase in stocks at the Cushing Hub). Presumably this surprise crude build was driven by anticipation of Hurricane Helene's impacts... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Refinery utilization rates in the Midwest slumped to 85%, the lowest since April. On a seasonal basis, that’s also the lowest seen for this time of the year since 2020. That’s mainly the result of BP Whiting carrying out maintenance. On the Gulf Coast, rates are the lowest since March amid planned work. PBF Chalmette, in New Orleans, has take two gasoline units -- an FCC and an alkylation unit -- offline for work. Gasoline demand plunged to a four-year seasonal low following a fifth straight decline last week.

Oil reduces gains after unexpected surge in US crude stocks -- Oil prices gained ground on Wednesday but reduced the gains after US inventory data, which showed an unexpected buildup last week.The Energy Information Administration reported a buildup of 3.9 million barrels in US crude stocks last week to a total of 416.9 million barrels, while analysts expected a drop of 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.1 million barrels to 221.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels to 121.6 million barrels. Israel said that Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at its territory, with Iran’s Revolutionary Forces saying the attack is a response to Israel’s assassination of Ismael Heniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah.There were no reports of injuries in Israel, and it comes after a similar Iranian attack in April that didn’t leave a lasting damage or impact on the financial markets.On trading, Brent December futures rose 0.45%, or 34 cents to $73.90 a barrel.US crude futures due in November rose 0.4%, or 27 cents to $70.10 a barrel.

Middle East conflict lifts oil prices despite large US crude build | (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on worries that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could threaten oil supplies from the world's top producing region, but a large build in U.S. crude inventories limited gains. Brent futures rose 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $73.90 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 27 cents, or 0.39%, to settle at $70.10 per barrel. On Tuesday, Iran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel, its biggest ever direct attack on the country. Israel and the United States vowed retribution for the attack, a sign that conflict in the region is intensifying. Israel's retaliation could include targeting Iranian oil production facilities among other strategic sites, U.S. news website Axios reported on Wednesday citing Israeli officials. On Wednesday, Iran said its missile attack on Israel was over, barring further provocation. It added that any Israeli response to its attack would be met with widespread destruction. An attack on Iran's oil infrastructure could provoke Tehran to respond with a strike on Saudi oil facilities, similar to one conducted in 2019 on crude processing facilities there, "Any of these events would irretrievably send oil prices considerably higher," he said. In another escalation of the conflict, the Israeli military on Wednesday sent regular infantry and armored units to join ground operations in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah. At a United Nations Security Council meeting about the Middle East on Wednesday, Israel and Iran threatened each other with retaliation if attacked. "A major escalation by Iran risks bringing the U.S. into the war," Capital Economics said in a note. "Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output, but an important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies were disrupted." Iran's oil output rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, ANZ analysts said. Offsetting some gains made during the week, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 417 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 27, the Energy Information Administration said. This compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also rose last week, but distillate inventories fell. "As we descend into seasonal refinery maintenance, a chunky drop in refining activity has ushered in a build to crude inventories," said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. A meeting on Wednesday of the top ministers of OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged. The group is set to raise output by 180,000 bpd each month from December. "Any suggestion that production hikes will proceed could offset concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East," ANZ analysts said. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia's oil minister warned oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members do not stick to agreed-upon output cut. OPEC refuted this claim, saying the article was "wholly inaccurate and misleading".

Oil prices edge higher over wider Middle East conflict - Oil prices increased on Thursday due to a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, home to the vast majority of oil reserves, fuelling fears of a disruption to crude oil flows, reported Anadolu Agency. International benchmark Brent crude rose by 1.26 per cent to US$74.83 per barrel at 11.01 am local time (0801 GMT), up from the previous session’s close of US$73.9. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 1.4 per cent to US$71.08 per barrel after closing at US$70.1 in the prior session. Cross-border fighting between Israel and Lebanon is expected to intensify further as the Israeli army announced “limited, localised” ground raids in southern Lebanon. Oil prices had jumped on Tuesday after Iran, a key producer and member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), fired around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. However, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released late Wednesday limited upward price movements, easing supply disruption worries. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by around 3.9 million barrels during the week ending Sept. 27, against the market prediction of a 1.5-million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also rose by about 1.1 million barrels during the same period. “Swelling US inventories added evidence that the market is well supplied and can withstand any disruptions,“

U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran -- U.S. crude oil prices rose about 5% on Thursday, posting a third consecutive session of gains on fears that Israel could strike Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack this week. President Joe Biden was asked by reporters Thursday morning whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. Biden said: "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway." The president added that "there's nothing going to happen today."CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.Biden's comments were the catalyst that moved prices higher, said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. "Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are probably at their highest levels since the Gulf War," Ghali told CNBC.The U.S. benchmark surged 5.5% earlier in the session to an intraday high of $73.99 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is ahead about 8% this week, on pace for its best weekly gain since March 2023. Here are Thursday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $73.71 per barrel, up $3.61, or 5.15%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained nearly 3%.
• Brent December contract: $77.62 per barrel, up $3.72, or 5.03%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead nearly 1%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0926 per gallon, up 5.37%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen less than 1%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.97 per thousand cubic feet, up 2.91%. Year to date, gas has gained about 18%.

The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy."This spare capacity is for now preventing runaway prices amid one of the deepest and most pervasive crises in the Middle East in the past four decades," Galimberti told clients in a Thursday note.OPEC+ spare capacity would be sufficient to cover a disruption to Iran's exports if Israel strikes the Islamic Republic's oil infrastructure as retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB.The problem, however, is that the world's spare oil capacity is heavily concentrated in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, and could also be at risk if a wider war breaks out, according to Ghali with TD Securities.If Israel hits Iran's oil industry, traders would begin to worry about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Schieldrop said. "That would add a significant risk premium to oil," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe." The strait is one of the most important trade arteries for oil in the world.As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran's oil infrastructure, Schieldrop said.

Oil Prices Spike As Biden Confirms 'Discussions' With Israel About Targeting Iran Facilities - Oil is trading more than 5% higher Thursday on the heels of President Joe Biden‘s statement that the U.S. spoke with Israel about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities."We're in discussions about that,” Biden said during an interaction with reporters. Biden seemingly indicated he wasn’t partial to the idea of striking at Iran’s oil facilities, before cutting himself off: “I think that would be a little… anyway.” See video below. When one reporter asked whether Biden would “allow” Israel to retaliate against Iran, Biden swiftly corrected him: “First of all, we don’t ‘allow’ Israel. We advise Israel.” Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S.Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. The country, which backs the Hezbollah militant group, exports around half its production abroad. China, where oil demand is weak, is its main customer. Since Iran's missile attack on Israel on Monday, the price of barrels has fluctuated. As of Oct. 3, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is $73.83 per barrel. This reflects a 5.32% increase from the previous day’s close of $70.10.The price of Brent crude is approximately $77.76 per barrel. It has fluctuated within a range of $74.33 to $77.58 for the day. The U.S., which is producing more oil under Biden than any other U.S. presidential administration, has been filling its reserves. The Biden administration acquired an additional 6 million barrels of crude just this week.It’s worth noting that ongoing violence in the Middle East puts the Straits of Hormuz at risk. A third of tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas is transported through that passageway.The U.S. and its allies are likely determined to keep the Strait open due to its strategic importance. Any attempt to block the Strait could provoke military intervention. Iran controls much of the northern coastline of the Strait and has previously threatened to block the passage in response to sanctions or conflicts with Western countries. So far, market reaction to the Middle East conflict is relatively mute compared to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.At the time, the oil market reacted with significant volatility and disruption, leading to a sharp rise in global prices.Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and by March 2022, it had briefly spiked to $139 per barrel, near the all-time high.Oil-related exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, were trending up at last check Thursday afternoon. Here’s where they stand:

Concerns the Widening Conflict in the Middle East Could Threaten Global Oil Supply - The oil market continued to trend higher on Thursday as the market remained concerned that a widening conflict in the Middle East could pose a threat to global oil supply. The crude market initially looked ready to post an inside trading day as the market awaits the Israeli response to the Iranian missile strike against Israel on Tuesday. Israel, which has mounted a deadly campaign against Hezbollah in recent weeks, has promised a forceful retaliation. The market posted a low of $70.52 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and rallied higher. The oil market extended its gains to over $3.85 as it posted a high of $73.95 after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that U.S. officials are considering whether to support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, a move that could push oil prices higher weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The market later erased some of its sharp gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up $3.61 at $73.71 and posted a new high of $73.99 in the post settlement period. The December Brent contract settled up $3.72 at $77.62. The product markets also surged higher, with the heating oil market settling up 11.26 cents at $2.2947 and the RB market settling up 10.67 cents at $2.0926. Gulf Arab states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in the conflict between Israel and Iran in meetings in Doha this week on the back of concerns that a wider escalation in violence could threaten their oil facilities, two sources told Reuters. Sources stated that ministers from Gulf Arab states and Iran attending a meeting of Asian nations centered their conversations around de-escalation. On Wednesday, Axios, citing Israeli officials, reported that Israel could target oil production facilities inside Iran as retaliation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, said Iran would be ready to respond and warned against “silence” in the face of Israel’s “warmongering”.Analysts estimate that OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for a full loss of Iranian supply if Israel knocks out that country’s facilities. However, the producer group would struggle if Iran retaliates by hitting its Gulf neighbors’ oil installations.According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil output fell in September to its lowest this year, as unrest disrupted Libyan supply and Iraq made progress in complying with its cutbacks pledged to the OPEC+ alliance. OPEC produced 26.14 million bpd in September, down 390,000 bpd from August’s revised total, with Libya accounting for the majority of the fall, with a cut of 300,000 bpd. Aside from Libya, which is exempt from OPEC+ agreements to limit production, the biggest decline came from Iraq, which is seeking to increase its compliance with its OPEC target. Iraq is still producing 90,000 bpd above quota. Nigeria pumped 40,000 bpd less oil as exports declined. OPEC pumped about 130,000 bpd more than the implied target for the nine members covered by supply cut agreements, with Iraq still accounting for the bulk of the excess.Libya’s National Oil Corp lifted a force majeure at all Libyan oilfields and terminals as of Thursday October 3^rd. Separately, Libya’s eastern-based government said that oilfields and facilities would reopen after a dispute over the leadership of the central bank was resolved, potentially ending a crisis that has cut the country’s oil output.

Biden discourages Israel from striking Iran's oil industry, crude posts best week in more than year - U.S. crude oil on Friday posted its biggest weekly gain in more than a year, as traders fear Israel could strike Iran's crude facilities in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack. U.S benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 9.09% this week for the biggest weekly gain since March 2023. Global benchmark Brent jumped 8.43% for the biggest weekly advance since January 2023.U.S. crude oil spiked about 5% on Thursday after President Joe Biden indicated the White House was discussing an Israeli strike on Iran's oil industry. Biden clarified those comments on Friday, discouraging Israel from targeting oil fields."The Israelis have not concluded what they're going to do in terms of a strike — that's under discussion," Biden told reporters at a White House press briefing. "If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields." Here are Friday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $74.38 per barrel, up 67 cents, or 0.91%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained nearly 4%.
• Brent December contract: $78.05 per barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.55%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen more than 1%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0958 per gallon, up 0.15%. Year to date, gasoline is little changed.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.854 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.91%. Year to date, gas is ahead more than 13%.

Oil prices would spike by $10 to $20 per barrel if an Israeli strike knocks out 1 million barrels per day of Iranian production over a sustained period, said Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs.Just how high prices would go depends on whether OPEC uses its spare oil capacity to plug the gap, Struyven said.Though oil prices have surged this week on geopolitical tensions, they have risen from a low baseline. Just last month, prices hit their lowest level in nearly three years as bearish sentiment swept the market on soft demand in China and plans by OPEC+ to increase production. "The risk to the oil price outlook are definitely significant," Struyven told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Friday. The oil market had largely ignored the escalating war in the Middle East until Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday."Geopolitical risk premium priced into oil markets until basically today was quite moderate," Struyven said. Brent prices at around $77 per barrel are still below Goldman Sachs' view of what constitutes fair value based on inventory levels, he said.The risk premium has been modest because there haven't been sustained supply disruptions over the past two years despite high geopolitical tensions, Struyven said. There is also about 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity on the sidelines that can come online and offset tightness from most supply disruption scenarios, the Goldman Sachs analyst said.

Oil soars 10% in five days, logs biggest weekly gain in one year over Israel-Iran war; Brent sits at $78/bbl - International crude oil prices settled higher in the previous session, logging their biggest weekly gains in over a year on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East due to Israel and Iran. However, gains were limited as US President Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to settle at $78.05 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 67 cents, or 0.9 per cent, to close at $74.38 per barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent crude gained over eight per cent, the most in a week since January 2023. The US WTI benchmark gained 9.1 per cent week-over-week, the most since March 2023. Back home, crude oil futures settled 3.07 per cent higher at ₹6,350 per barrel on the multi-commodity exchange (MCX).

• -Israel has sworn to strike Iran for launching a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday after Israel assassinated the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah a week ago. The events had commodity and oil analysts warning clients of the potential ramifications of a broader war in the Middle East.
• -Crude oil prices jumped nearly two per cent during the last session but pulled back after US President Biden said that if he were in Israel's shoes, he would consider alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. On Thursday, oil surged over five per cent after Biden confirmed the US was in talks with Israel on whether it would support a strike on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• -JPMorgan commodities analysts wrote on Friday that Israel would not prefer an attack on Iranian energy facilities. Still, low global oil inventories suggest that prices will be elevated until the conflict is resolved. Citing data from ship-tracking service Kpler, they said inventories are below last year's levels when Brent traded at $92 and 4.4 billion barrels, the lowest on record.
• -Brokerage StoneX forecasts oil prices could jump between $3 and $5 per barrel if Iranian oil infrastructure is targeted. On Friday, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since his country launched the missile attack. He called for more anti-Israel struggle.
• -According to news agency Reuters, Iran will target Israeli energy and gas installations if Israel attacks it, the semi-official Iranian news agency SNN quoted Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Ali Fadavi as saying.
• -Iran is a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing around 3.2 million barrels per day, or three per cent of global output. The group's spare production capacity should allow other members to boost output if Iranian supplies are disrupted, limiting oil price gains.
• -Supply fears have also eased in Libya. According to Reuters, the country's eastern-based government and Tripoli-based National Oil Corp on Thursday said that all oilfields and export terminals were being reopened after a dispute over the central bank's leadership was resolved.

Given the region's significant influence on global oil supplies and investor sentiment, gold and crude oil tend to experience heightened volatility during periods of geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East.“In geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, crude oil prices react sharply to concerns over supply disruptions. The uncertainty fuels a flight to safety in gold and drives energy markets to speculate on potential oil shortages, making both commodities a barometer of global risk sentiment," said Narinder Wadhwa, Managing Director at SKI Capital Services Ltd -a SEBI registered AIF and RTA & category 1 merchant bank.Analysts said crude oil exhibited significant volatility and extended its gains, with WTI prices reaching five-week highs. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have been driving up oil prices, especially after the US intervention.“Crude oil prices have surged by approximately eight per cent this week, and further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could continue to buoy prices. We anticipate continued volatility in crude oil prices. Support levels are $72.85–$72.20, with resistance expected at $74.20–$75.00.

US Not Withdrawing from Iraq - The US and Iraq on Friday announced a plan that will end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq, but US troops will remain in the country under a “bilateral security partnership.”Iraqi security officials told The Associated Press that US troops would be withdrawing from a base at the Baghdad International Airport and the Ain al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq. US officials refuse to say how many of the 2,500 US troops in Iraq, if any, will be leaving the country.“The US is not withdrawing from Iraq,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Friday. She said the US would be changing its “footprint” in the country but wouldn’t share any details.“This is a step in our relationship and a progress towards a bilateral security agreement, and we’ll have more details to share when we’re ready,” Singh said.Under the plan, the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq will officially end its mission by September 2025, but it will continue to operate in Syria and be supported from Iraqi territory until September 2026. The US has about 900 troops occupying eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing the US to control about one-third of Syria’s territory.The plan is unlikely to placate the many elements in Iraq who want the US to leave, and it could lead to more rocket and drone attacks on US bases. Recent Israeli escalations in Lebanon could also provoke attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria.Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani began calling for an end to the US military presence following an escalation between the US and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that are part of Iraq’s security forces.The US launched heavy airstrikes against the PMF over rocket and drone attacks on US bases, which began in response to US support for Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Hundreds of attacks targeted US bases before a drone hit Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan on the Syrian border, in January, killing three US Army Reserve soldiers.The Iraqi government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch drone boat that hits ship in Red Sea as missile strikes another (AP) — Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched an explosive-loaded drone that crashed into one ship Tuesday in the Red Sea and a missile that exploded against another. The attacks are the rebels’ first assaults on commercial shipping in weeks as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to become a regional conflict. They come as Israeli ground forces entered Lebanon after days of Israeli airstrikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials, and earlier explosions of sabotaged electronic devices used by the Shiite militia. The Houthis threatened “escalating military operations” targeting Israel on Monday after they apparently shot down a U.S. military drone flying over Yemen. The first attack took place some 110 kilometers (70 miles) off the port city of Hodeida and targeted the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon, the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center said. A captain on a ship saw four “splashes” near the vessel, the center overseen by the U.S. Navy said. That likely would have been missiles launched at the vessel that missed. The drone boat later damaged the Cordelia Moon, which sustained a puncture to one of its ballast tanks in the attack. Those tanks control a ship’s buoyancy. Houthi strikes in the past have targeted ships at their waterline to disable the vessels. Drone boats have been increasingly used by the Houthis. The ship had been heading north to the Suez Canal with armed private security guards aboard, the private security firm Ambrey said. Another attack with a missile targeted a separate ship also heading north to the Suez Canal with armed security on board, Ambrey said. The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center later identified it as the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage. Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree later claimed the two attacks in a prerecorded message, though he identified a different vessel as the second ship attacked. The discrepancy could not be immediately reconciled. Saree said in a prerecorded video earlier Tuesday that the rebels had launched drones targeting Israel — attacks unreported by Israel as it faces incoming fire from Hezbollah. The Houthis have exaggerated claims in the past. The Red Sea has become a battlefield for shippers since the Houthis began their campaign targeting ships traveling through the waterway, which once saw $1 trillion a year of cargo pass through it. Houthis have targeted more than 80 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started last October. They have seized one vessel and sunk two in the campaign that has also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels. The rebels maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the U.S. or the United Kingdom to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.

Israel Bombs Yemen’s Hodeidah Port, Killing At Least Four - The Israeli military conducted airstrikes against Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah on Sunday, killing at least four people and wounding 29.Yemen’s Health Ministry said the death toll is preliminary and could rise. According to Al Mayadeen, the strikes hit port facilities, a power generation plant, and the Hodeidah airport.The Israeli military said it carried out the strikes in response to the Houthis firing missiles toward Israel. On Friday, the Houthis claimed they launched attacks on Israeli cities and several US warships.Dozens of Israeli warplanes were involved in the strikes on Hodeidah, which the Israeli military said targeted port and oil facilities and “sensitive” Houthi military sites. US and Israeli officials told Axios that Israel notified US Central Command ahead of the strikes, meaning Israel coordinated with the US on the attack. Since January, the US has been bombing Yemen as part of a new campaign that has failed to stop Houthi attacks on shipping.Israel bombed Yemen for the first time back in July in response to a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv that killed one civilian. The Israeli Air Force also targeted Hodeidah in July, hitting oil infrastructure and killing six civilians.The US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

Israeli attacks on Hezbollah roil Middle East: Five pressing questions --Israel has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership with strikes over the past week, while also killing hundreds of civilians and forcing nearly 1 million people from their homes. Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was taken out in an Israeli attack Friday on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut. The United States has said justice was served to Nasrallah, a key Iranian ally in the region. However, Washington is also urging a diplomatic solution to a conflict that is moving ever-closer to an all-out war, especially as Israel threatens a ground invasion. Israel expanded its air strikes across Lebanon over the weekend, hitting central Beirut on Monday for the first time in months. Local officials say more than 1,000 civilians have been killed across Lebanon over the past week, including 100 on Sunday. “There’s no safe place guaranteed in Lebanon,” Jihan Kaisi, the head of a group helping displaced people, told NBC News. Here are five pressing questions about the conflict.

Israel pounds Lebanon, pressuring Hezbollah after killing its leader - Israel struck multiple targets in Lebanon on Sunday, pressing Iran-backed Hezbollah with more attacks after it struck a huge blow by killing the group's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The Israeli military said the air force had "struck dozens of Hezbollah terror targets in Lebanon, including launchers that were aimed toward Israeli territory, structures in which weapons were stored and additional Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure". The navy had intercepted a projectile approaching Israel from the area of the Red Sea and another eight projectiles coming from Lebanon had fallen in open areas, it said in a statement. Nasrallah was killed in a massive Israeli air attack on Friday on the group's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. It was a major blow to Hezbollah and to Iran, removing an influential ally who helped build Hezbollah into the linchpin of Tehran's network of allied groups in the Arab world. Israel announced his killing on Saturday and Hezbollah later confirmed his death. In its announcement, Hezbollah said it would keep fighting Israel and has continued to fire rockets at it, including a salvo on Sunday morning. Nasrallah's death capped a traumatic fortnight for Hezbollah, starting with the detonation of thousands of communications devices used by its members. Israel was widely assumed to have carried out that action but has not confirmed or denied it did. The escalation has increased fears the conflict could spin out of control, potentially drawing in Iran as well as the United States, Israel's closest ally. Hezbollah and Israel have been fighting in parallel with Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas since the Iran-backed Palestinian group's attack on Israel last Oct. 7. Lebanon's health ministry said 33 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon during Saturday, bringing the total toll since hostilities broke out on Oct. 8 last year to more than 1,670, including 104 children. In Beirut, displaced families spent the night on the benches at Zaitunay Bay, a string of restaurants and cafes on Beirut's waterfront where private security usually shoos away any loiterers. On Sunday morning, families with nothing more than a duffle bag of clothes had rolled out mats to sleep on and poured tea for themselves. "You won't be able to destroy us, whatever you do, however much you bomb, however much you displace people - we will stay here. We won't leave. This is our country and we're staying," said Francoise Azori, a Beirut resident jogging through the area. The United Nations' World Food Programme said in a statement on Sunday it had launched an emergency operation to provide food for up to 1 million people affected by the conflict in Lebanon.

Israel Amasses Troops, Tanks on Lebanon Border as Heavy Airstrikes Continue - Israel has amassed more troops and tanks on the Lebanon border in recent days as it continues to pound Beirut and other areas of the country, killing over 100 people on Saturday and Sunday. US officials told ABC News on Saturday that they believe Israel is preparing for a “limited ground incursion” into southern Lebanon even after it has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership.On Sunday, US officials told ABC that small-scale raids to take out Hezbollah positions right across the border may have already started. The officials said they expect any ground incursion to be limited, but Israeli troops may face face stiff resistance.The ABC report said Israel isn’t listening to US calls for de-escalation and diplomacy, which aren’t genuine since the Biden administration continues to provide military aid and shows strong public support for the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Sunday that at least 105 people were killed in another day of Israeli bombing, which targeted Beirut, the eastern Baalbek-Hemel province, and near the southern city of Sidon. According to Al Jazeera, the strike in Sidon hit two residential buildings and killed at least 32 people.On Saturday, the Health Ministry said at least 33 people were killed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon. The Lebanese Government Emergency Committee released figures on Sunday of the total casualties in Lebanon inflicted by Israel over the past year. It said since October 8, 2023, 1,640 people, including 104 children and 194 women, have been killed, and 8,408 have been wounded. At least 816 of the dead have been killed since September 23, when Israel began its dramatic escalation of airstrikes.

Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Kill At Least 95 in One Day - Lebanon’s Health Ministry has reported that Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Monday killed at least 95 people as the relentless bombing campaign continues. “The Israeli enemy’s raids in the past twenty-four hours on towns and villages in southern Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and the capital Beirut resulted in a total death toll of ninety-five people and 172 injuries,” the ministry wrote on X early Tuesday.Since Israel dramatically escalated its bombing campaign last week, Israeli strikes have killed over 1,000 peoplein Lebanon. Many civilians have been killed, and the Health Ministry said nearly a quarter of the dead are women and children.Reuters reported on Monday that an Israeli airstrike on September 25 hit two houses in Maaysrah, a village north of Beirut in the Keserwan mountains. Displaced families gathered in the houses because the village had never been attacked by Israel in previous wars.But on September 25, Israeli bombs struck two houses in Maaysrah, killing 16 people, including 14 women and children. Thirty people were wounded in the strike, about half of them children.Local officials told Reuters that one house was the residence of a Hezbollah fighter who was killed in battle in August, and a former fighter who had lost a leg in battle was there at the time, but no active combatants were present.Residential homes were Israel’s primary target when its escalation began last week. Israeli officials claimed homes were being used to store Hezbollah weapons but offered no actual evidence for the claim. As a result of the strategy, Lebanese Health Minister Dr. Firass Abiad said the “overwhelming majority, if not all,” of the 558 people killed by Israeli airstrikes on September 23 were civilians.

Israel Again Accused of Illegally Using White Phosphorus in Lebanon - "If Hezbollah rained white phosphorus over Tel Aviv there would be wall-to-wall coverage and every major leader would be saying it's the worst war crime," said one critic. Israeli forces were accused Tuesday of the war crime of firing white phosphorus artillery munitions over populated areas of southern Lebanon as Israel escalates an assault on its northern neighbor that has killed or wounded thousands of people.Video footage published on social media and reported by Middle East Eye shows distinctive explosions that appear consistent with the use of white phosphorus rounds over civilian areas of southern Lebanon, including the village of Kfar Kila.While white phosphorus munitions are not completely prohibited under international law, their use in populated areas is forbidden. White phosphorus round are primarily used to create smokescreens. However, when used as an incendiary weapon, white phosphorus – which ignites on contact with air and burns at nearly 1,500°F (815°C) – can maim and kill by burning flesh straight through to the bone, often causing a slow, agonizing death. Water does not extinguish it.There have been multiple confirmed reports of Israeli forces firing white phosphorus munitions in Lebanon since the political and paramilitary group Hezbollah began attacking Israel with rockets, drones, and other weapons in solidarity with Gaza after Israel’s assault on the Palestinian coastal enclave in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.Israel is currently on trial for genocide at the International Court of Justice over its military assault of Gaza, which has left more than 147,000 Palestinians dead, maimed, or missing.Israeli forces have also used white phosphorus in previous wars, including during the 2006 invasion of Lebanonand over a United Nations school during the 2008-09 Operation Cast Lead invasion of Gaza. Responding to a 2013 petition to Israel’s High Court of Justice filed by human rights groups including Human Rights Watch (HRW), the Israel Defense Forces said it would no longer use white phosphorus in populated areas, with “very narrow exceptions” that it would not disclose.U.S. forces used white phosphorus following the invasion of Iraq and elsewhere across the region during the post-9/11 so-called “War on Terrorism.”

Erdoğan warns of war between Israel and Turkey - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned of war between Israel and Turkey in his speech at the opening of parliament on Tuesday, saying, “The Israeli leadership, acting with the delirium of the promised land and with a purely religious fanaticism, will set its sights on our homeland after Palestine and Lebanon.” Erdoğan said that the Zionist “Greater Israel” project includes Turkey and added, “The Netanyahu government harbors a delusional ambition, including Anatolia, and pursues a utopia, and it reveals these intentions on various occasions. Since 7 October, every development increases the dimension of this threat a little more.” Pointing to the proximity of the borders between Turkey and Israel, Erdoğan hinted that war was imminent between the two critical allies of the United States in the Middle East: “Look, from the Syrian border in Hatay’s Yayladagi district, the Lebanese border is 170 kilometres away by road, and Turkey is only 2.5 hours away from Lebanon by car... In other words, occupation, terror and aggression are right next to us.” Erdoğan made a similar statement last May, saying, “Do not expect that Israel will stop in Gaza. If not stopped, this ferocious, terrorist state will eventually have designs on Anatolia with the delusion of the promised land.” Erdoğan’s latest statements come shortly after the Israeli regime launched a ground offensive in Lebanon having killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Backed by the United States and NATO, the Israeli government is trying to escalate the genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza into a regional war against Iran. After Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation Tuesday night, US and Israeli officials publicly authorised a large-scale attack on Iran. Together with Erdoğan’s announcement last July that Turkey could intervene militarily against Israel, these developments underline the danger that Israel’s US-backed war of aggression is rapidly escalating into a conflict that can engulf the entire region.The Turkish ruling class also fears that a US-backed Israeli war against neighbouring Iran could damage its interests. Ankara and Tehran share the concern that an independent Kurdish state backed by the US and Israel could be established in the region. Erdoğan expressed these concerns in his speech as follows: “We see very clearly how Israel wants to establish small satellite structure in the north of Iraq and Syria, using the separatist organisation [PKK/YPG] as a pawn.”Erdoğan and the Turkish political elite before him have been complicit in the US imperialist aggression in the Middle East for more than 30 years, contributing to the dynamics of disintegration in Iraq and Syria and the danger of the outbreak of a regional war. Erdoğan, who supported the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, has been siding with the US and Israel since 2011 in the war for regime change in Syria, which aims to overthrow the Iranian and Hezbollah-backed President Bashar al-Assad.Similarly, Erdoğan’s statement in his speech that “remaining silent, unresponsive and even neutral” towards Israel is, “to put it bluntly, complicity in the crime,” is an example of utter hypocrisy. NATO member Turkey has been complicit in Israel’s genocide in Gaza and, despite all its rhetorical criticism, has contributed to the escalation of the war. Although Erdoğan has cut trade with Israel and toughened his rhetoric, US-NATO bases in Turkey continue to support Israel. Turkey continues to intercede for Azerbaijan’s critical oil shipments to the country. There are even serious suspicions that Turkey is continuing to trade with Israel via Palestine after the official end of trade with Tel Aviv.

Iran Fires Missile Barrage at Israel - Iran launched over 100 missiles at Israel on Tuesday in an attack that came in response to recent Israeli escalations. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement that the attack was a response to the Israeli killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander who was killed alongside the Hezbollah chief.“In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and (IRGC commander) Nilforoshan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said in a statement.A statement from Iran’s mission to the UN suggests Tehran is done with its attack after launching two missile barrages, although it warned of a “crushing response” if Israel retaliates.“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran—has been duly carried out,” the mission wrote on X.“Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. Regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime,” the mission added.The Israeli military said there would be “consequences” for the attack. “We are on heightened alert on defense and offensive, we will protect the citizens of Israel. This [missile] fire will have consequences. We have plans, and we will act in the time and place that we choose,” said IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. Hagari also said there were no more threats coming from Iran, suggesting the attack was over. He said some of the missiles were intercepted but that there were impacts in southern and central Israel, and the number of casualties is being assessed. The White House said President Biden has directed the US military to intervene to defend Israel from Iran’s attacks and shoot down missiles that are targeting Israel.The attack came after the White House said that it had information that Iran was preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel and vowed the US would come to Israel’s defense.According to CNN, the White House said it had “indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel” and added that the US was “actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack.” “A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a White House official said Tuesday.The warning from the US comes amid Israel’s escalations in Lebanon, where it has killed over 1,000 people since last Monday.According to Axios, the US warned Israel around noon Israel time (5 am EST) that an Iranian attack could come in the next few hours. Later in the day, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he spoke with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about the alleged Iranian threat.

Iran fires at least 180 missiles into Israel as regionwide conflict grows (AP) — Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday, the latest in a series of rapidly escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its Arab allies that threatens to push the Middle East closer to a regionwide war. Iran said the barrage was retaliation for a series of devastating blows Israel has landed in recent weeks against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been firing rockets into Israel since the war in Gaza began. Earlier Tuesday, Israel launched what it said is a limited ground incursion in southern Lebanon. Israelis scrambled for bomb shelters as air raid sirens sounded and the orange glow of missiles streaked across the night sky. Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the country’s air defenses intercepted many of the incoming Iranian missiles, though some landed in central and southern Israel. Israel’s national rescue service said two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel. In the West Bank, Palestinian officials said a Palestinian man was killed by a missile that fell near the town of Jericho, though it wasn’t clear where the attack originated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed late Tuesday to retaliate against Iran, which he said “made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.” Iran’s armed forces joint chief of staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri warned that Iran would respond to action against its territory with strikes on Israel’s entire infrastructure with “multiplied intensity.” Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire pounded southern Lebanese villages on Tuesday, and Hezbollah responded with a barrage of rockets into Israel. There was no immediate word on casualties. Moments before Iran launched its missiles, a shooting attack in Tel Aviv left at least six people dead, police said, adding that the two suspects who had opened fire on a boulevard in the Jaffa neighborhood had also been killed. Hezbollah and Hamas are close allies backed by Iran, and each escalation has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East that could draw in Iran and the United States, which has rushed military assets to the region in support of Israel. Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for years, but rarely have they come into direct conflict. The U.N. Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for Wednesday morning to address the escalating situation in the Middle East. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran’s missile attack a “significant escalation,” although he said it was ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because of assistance from the U.S. military in shooting down some of the inbound missiles. President Joe Biden said his administration is “fully supportive” of Israel and that he’s in “active discussion” with aides about what the appropriate response should be to Tehran. Iran said it fired Tuesday’s missiles as retaliation for attacks that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military. It referenced Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut. It also mentioned Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader in Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack in July. Israel has said it will continue to strike Hezbollah until it is safe for citizens displaced from homes near the Lebanon border to return. Hezbollah has vowed to keep firing rockets into Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza with Hamas, which is also supported by Iran.On Tuesday morning, Israel warned people in southern Lebanon to evacuate to the north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers (36 miles) from the border and much farther than the Litani River, which marks the northern edge of a U.N.-declared zone intended to serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah after their 2006 war. The border region has largely emptied out over the past year as the two sides have traded fire. An Associated Press reporter saw Israeli troops operating near the border in armored trucks, with helicopters circling overhead, but could not confirm ground forces had crossed into Lebanon.Hezbollah is a well-trained militia, believed to have tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles. The last round of fighting in 2006 ended in a stalemate, and both sides have spent the past two decades preparing for their next showdown. The group’s acting leader, Naim Kassem, said Monday that Hezbollah commanders killed in recent weeks have already been replaced. As the fighting intensifies, European countries have begun pulling their diplomats and citizens out of Lebanon.

Rabobank: Iran Just Made A Huge Strategic Error - Overnight, around 200 ballistic missiles were again fired into Israel from Iran, most shot down in flight with the help of the US, UK, and Jordan, others hitting open areas near real targets, with only one casualty, a Palestinian. However, thinking this is a repeat of April’s “choreographed” Iranian strike that will be met by a token Israeli response is taking a bold bet. Back in April, I said we’d revisit that episode with worse consequences; and here we are. For those who hadn’t noticed - that includes Haniyeh and Nasrallah - Israel’s strategic dynamic has changed. It’s no longer trading blow for blow with others within prescribed geography and scale but climbing the escalation ladder to force its enemies to jump off or be smashed. Iran therefore just made a huge strategic error. Indeed, PM Netanyahu, who restored Israeli deterrence while declaring there are no red lines for it in the region cannot now show Iran is off limits. Doubly, when central Israel spent the night before Jewish new year in bomb shelters. Triply, when Iran’s shield of Hamas and Hezbollah are dismantled. Quadruply, when his new coalition member is an Iran hawk and his most potent potential political rival, former PM Bennet, tweets now is the time to strike the head of the Iranian octopus. Quintuply, when western leaders are behind Israel. Dutch PM Wilders insulted Supreme Leader Khamenei in Hebrew. Even the US stated it will help with “severe consequences” for what Iran just did rather than telling Israel to “take the win,” as reports are the US also backed Israel’s move against Hezbollah. In the second Harris/Walz-Trump/Vance debate, the first question was on the Middle East. Walz said, “Let’s keep in mind where this started,” i.e., October 7, and Israel’s ability to defend itself is “absolutely fundamental.” Vance concurred, “We should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.” Walz noted Iran is closer to being a nuclear power, a line Vance could also have used. The list of Israeli targets proportionate to their escalation vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is short:

1. Military radar systems would leave Iran open for IDF air attacks.
2. Iran’s nuclear program would require US assistance.
3. The simplest target is oil infrastructure to remove the earnings paying for its and its proxies’ weapons, and to destabilise the regime.

Yet Iranian state Telegram chatgroups, and an Iranian professor of literature(!) interviewed by the BBC, say if their oil is hit, they will burn Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE, Bahraini, and Azerbaijani oil – an escalation threat we have been flagging as a fat tail risk since immediately after October 7. (Note Qatar, a key supplier of LNG to the EU, is absent from this list despite ostensibly being a major US ally…) As such, the US might also oppose this move: but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Of course, Israel hitting Iran too hard could mean war, dragging others in; even so, it likely sees more risk in doing too little with its next strike than doing too much. For markets, the risk is therefore also around where one’s strikes are placed. Oil went up around 5% yesterday and has only come down slightly since; indeed, the above may still be just a tail risk - a literature professor is after all an expert in fiction - but it’s as fat as they come. In the Far East, trouble brews too. Japanese PM Ishiba, whom I noted yesterday is a foreign policy hawk who favours an Asian NATO with regional nuclear weapons, is making headlines today for [checks notes] supporting the creation of an ‘Asia NATO’ to deter China, Russia and North Korea with nuclear weapons – American or otherwise(!) This has huge implications.

World On Fire: Houthi Rebels Targeted Two Ships In Red Sea While Iran Launched Missiles At Israel - As the news cycle on Tuesday centered on Iran's launch of 180 ballistic missiles, including new hypersonic weapons, tensions also flared up in the Red Sea when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two commercial vessels—one with an explosive-laden drone and the other with a missile.Houston-based data intelligence firm SynMax, which specializes in maritime and energy intelligence, wrote on X early Tuesday morning, "Two ships targeted by Houthis in the RedSea yesterday—Panama-flagged CORDELIA MOON and Liberian-flagged MINOAN COURAGE—the first such attacks since September." AP News provided additional color on the attacks:The first attack took place some 110 kilometers (70 miles) off the port city of Hodeida and targeted the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon, the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center said. A captain on a ship saw four "splashes" near the vessel, the center overseen by the U.S. Navy said. That likely would have been missiles launched at the vessel that missed.The drone boat later damaged the Cordelia Moon, which sustained a puncture to one of its ballast tanks in the attack. Those tanks control a ship's buoyancy. Houthi strikes in the past have targeted ships at their waterline to disable the vessels....Another attack with a missile targeted a separate ship also heading north to the Suez Canal with armed security on board, Ambrey said. The British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center later identified it as the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage.Since October 2023, Houthi rebels have launched over 80 attacks on commercial ships in the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea, sinking two ships and killing four sailors.

Biden escalates toward disastrous war against Iran - The United States and Israel stand on the verge of a direct attack on Iran, with the most far-reaching and catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and the whole world. Using Iran’s attack on Israeli military infrastructure Tuesday as a pretext, the White House has effectively given Israel carte blanche to carry out an illegal attack against the second most populous country in the region (after Egypt). “We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us [referring to the G7 nations] agree that they have a right to respond,” Biden said Wednesday. Reuters commented in a news report, “[T]he US is not pressing Israel to refrain from retaliation.” One year after the start of the Gaza genocide, it has become clear that Israel seized upon the events of October 7 to implement long-held plans to ethnically cleanse and annex all Palestinian territories. This is part of a regional war throughout the Middle East to conquer what the Zionist state claims to be its biblical borders. For the United States, it has been a means to cement imperialist control over the oil-rich Middle East region and to establish the Middle East and Central Asia as a firm base for US military operations in order to press ahead with its confrontation with Russia and China. It is high time to put an end to the myth that Israel is an actor independent of the United States. Israel’s primary function is to serve as an attack dog and instrument of the interests of American imperialism throughout the entire region. As always, neither the US government nor the media is making any effort to inform the public about the monumental consequences of the plans now underway. During the first and only vice presidential debate between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance on Tuesday, moderator Margaret Brennan asked both candidates, “Would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran?” Walz said, “We will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences.” Vance added, “Look, it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe. And we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.” After the candidates delivered their one-line responses, no one bothered to note, first, that such an attack would be completely illegal, and second, that it would have monumental and historic consequences for the entire world. The developing US-Israeli war with Iran threatens to engulf the entire region in flames. This week, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan warned, “The Israeli government is acting in the illusion of a promised land, with religious fanaticism. After Palestine and Lebanon, our homeland will be the place they look at. Everything is aimed at this now.” Erdogan’s statement is an indication of the extent to which the actions of Israel and the US are provoking alarm throughout the region and the world. There is a growing sense that the United States and its Israeli attack dog are out of control. The US media is presenting a looming Israeli attack on Iran as a response to the strikes launched by Iran on Israeli military bases on Tuesday. In fact, Iran’s attack was a response to a series of US-Israeli bombings, murders and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of people throughout the Middle East. Iran’s missile strike on Israel took place just one day after Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, following days of escalating air bombardments that left thousands of people dead. On Saturday, Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, using 85 US-supplied 2,000-pound bombs that completely leveled high-rise residential buildings, killing hundreds. It follows Israel’s assassination of the head of Hamas’s political wing in Tehran, who was an official guest of the Iranian government. The Iranian regime has repeatedly adopted an attitude of restraint to these US and Israeli provocations. There was no significant response to the murder of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and Iran’s regime has tolerated repeated assassinations of scientists, and most recently, an Israeli bombing in Tehran itself. The president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking for the Iranian ruling class, has repeatedly adopted the most conciliatory attitude toward the imperialist powers. These efforts at conciliation have now failed, and the Iranian regime is coming under increasing pressure to resist and retaliate. The leaders of American imperialism believe that through launching a bloodbath of violence in the Middle East and blowing past all “red lines,” they will be able to undo the consequences of the debacles suffered by US imperialism over decades. They are deluding themselves. What leads them to believe that war with Iran, a country of 90 million people and a highly sophisticated society, will have any better outcome than the invasion of Iraq?

Biden Says US and Israel Are Discussing Strikes on Iranian Oil Facilities - President Biden said Thursday that the US and Israel were discussing the possibility of striking Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel on Tuesday, which was a response to multiple Israeli escalations.When asked by a reporter if he would support Israeli strikes on Iranian oil sites, Biden said, “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little… anyway.” The comments sent oil prices spiking.Striking Iran’s oil facilities is supported by the ultra-hawkish Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “These oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror,” Graham said in a statement on Tuesday.On Wednesday, Biden said he wouldn’t support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but the US is vowing to ensure Tehran faces “severe consequences.” Israeli officials have told Axios that they plan to hit Iran hard and believe their attack could lead to a major regional war.Options being considered besides striking oil facilities are targeting Iran’s air defenses or carrying out a targeted assassination inside Iran. Israeli officials have said that if Iran responds to their next attack, then any option is on the table, including strikes on nuclear facilities.Israel is coordinating its plans to attack Iran with the US because it wants the US to come to its defense in the event of another significant Iranian attack. If Israel wants to carry out a significant strike inside Iran, it may also need support from the US military.The president previously said he wouldn't support strikes on nuclear facilities

Israel Kills 61 Palestinians in Gaza Over Three Days - Israeli forces have killed at least 61 Palestinians in Gaza over the past three days, according to numbers released by Gaza’s Health Ministry.On Saturday, the ministry said 52 Palestinians were killed, and 118 were wounded in the previous 48-hour period. On Sunday, the ministry said nine were killed and 41 were injured over the previous 24-hour period.The violence brings the Health Ministry’s death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,595 and the number of wounded to 96,251. The numbers are an undercount since they don’t account for the estimated 10,000 Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble, and the number of indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege is unknown.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry said on Sunday.Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that at least 28 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza since dawn, a number that likely includes people killed after the Health Ministry put out its daily update.The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that one of the attacks targeted a school that was sheltering displaced Palestinians in the northern town of Beit Lahia, killing at least four people and wounding 15. Children and women were among the casualties. Earlier this month, Gaza’s Health Ministry released the names of 34,344 Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces, including 11,355 children. Among the children were 710 infants who did not make it to their first birthday.

Israel Kills 23 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that at least 23 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in Gaza over the previous 24-hour period, bringing the recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,638.Another 101 Palestinians were injured by Israeli attacks, bringing the total number of wounded to 96,460. The Health Ministry’s numbers are an undercount since they only include dead and wounded Palestinians who have been brought to hospitals and morgues.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry said.Later on Tuesday, Palestinian health officials told Middle East Eye that the Israeli military killed at least 37 people in Gaza on Tuesday. The Health Ministry’s figures are usually put out around mid-day Gaza time, meaning it doesn’t include all the Palestinians killed on that day.Israeli attacks on Tuesday included two strikes on houses in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, which killed at least 13 people, including women and children. Another strike hit a school-turned-shelter for displaced people in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City, killing at least seven.The latest massacres in Gaza come as the world’s attention is on Lebanon and the Iranian missile attacks on Israel. The regional escalations put much less scrutiny on Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly considering an ethnic cleansing plan for northern Gaza.In September, Gaza’s Health Ministry released the names of 34,344 Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces, including 11,355 children. Among the children were 710 infants who did not make it to their first birthday.

Israeli Airstrikes in Lebanon Kill at Least 55 in 24 Hours - The Lebanese Health Ministry has said Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon killed 95 people and wounded 156 as Israeli strikes continue to hit targets across the country. “The Israeli enemy’s raids in the past twenty-four hours on towns and villages in southern Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and Mount Lebanon resulted in a total death toll of 55 people and the injury of 156,” the ministry wrote on X on Wednesday, just after midnight Beirut time.According to AFP, Lebanon’s disaster agency said earlier that Israeli operations in Lebanon have killed 1,873 people since October 8, 2023. Over 1,000 have been killed, including many civilians, since Israel dramatically ramped up its bombing campaign on September 23.Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday continued to target the capital, Beirut. According to Middle East Eye, Israel targeted a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahiyeh and a building near Kuwait’s embassy in the city.The airstrikes came as the Israeli military said its forces were carrying out limited ground raids in southern Lebanon, although both Hezbollah and the Lebanese military denied Israeli troops entered the country. Israel told people in southern Lebanon to evacuate an area that stretches to 36 miles from the Israeli border, adding to the massive displacement crisis caused by the Israeli military operations. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said earlier this week that one million people may have been displaced.

New Israeli Strike On Damascus Kills Several Civilians Amid Fears Of Regional War - Israel on Wednesday has once again targeted Damascus - but which marks the first time Israel's military has struck Syria since the Tuesday night major ballistic missile attack by Iran.The fresh airstrike happened in broad daylight in a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of the capital, killing at least three civilians, according to state-run SANA. Another three were reported wounded.Some unverified reports say that a multi-story residential building was hit. It is unclear what Israeli jets might have been targeting, but Israeli media often casts these operations as against 'Iranian assets'.Israeli jets often fire into Syria from over unguarded Lebanese airspace, also as Lebanon has no air force or anti-air missile systems to speak of. Such attacks have been growing in the last days and weeks in the context of the escalating war in Lebanon, despite the Syrian Army staying on the sidelines thus far.Israel sees Damascus as a key enabler of the 'pro-Iran/pro-Shia axis' of Tehran-Baghdad-Beirut, given Syria has hosted Iranian and Hezbollah troops on its soil going back near the start of the Syrian proxy war of the past decade. Tuesday had seen a major Israeli attack on the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, resulting in the death a popular Syrian television anchor. State television had described in a statement— ...that it "mourns anchor Safaa Ahmad who was martyred in the Israeli aggression on the capital Damascus". The official SANA news agency earlier said "air defense systems are intercepting hostile targets for the third time tonight in the Damascus area", using a phrase that usually refers to Israeli strikes. Currently Israel is said to be planning a large-scale retaliation against Iran. There are growing fears this could spark all-out war in the region, which could draw in Syria. Israel bombed a residential neighborhood in Syria's capital, Damascus.pic.twitter.com/GURSXzROGk Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first words in the wake of the attack were "Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it" and included the vow, "whoever attacks us — we will attack them." "The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him," Netanyahu continued.

The Western Media Helped Create These Horrors In The Middle East - Caitlin Johnstone - The US and Iran are on the brink of war. Israel and the United States areplanning a major attack on Iran, which according to Biden himself could entail strikes on Iranian oil sites. Iran is now saying that its days of “individual self-restraint” are over, and it is prepared to go all-in if the US and Israel keep ramping up escalations. The IDF continues to slaughter civilians in Lebanon with US-backed airstrikes as news surfaces that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire with Israel shortly before Israel assassinated him. The US reportedly knew about the deal.And of course Israel is still killing dozens of civilians a day in its daily massacres in Gaza. Ninety-nine American healthcare workers who volunteered in the enclave have published an open letter to their president detailing the horrors that they have witnessed, and estimating the current death toll from this onslaught is over 118,908.And at this juncture in history, I think it would be good for us to give the western press their due credit for helping to take us here by manufacturing consent for the political environment in which such western-supported atrocities are possible.All the mass media personnel who’ve been lying and manipulating for Israel helped pave the way to this.All the pundits and reporters who’ve been assigning far more weight to the Israeli deaths on October 7 than to the vastly greater number of Arab deaths before and since.All the editors who’ve been running “Gaza child walks into bullet” passive-language headlines designed to mask Israel’s responsibility for the killings. Everyone who uncritically reported fake atrocity propaganda about beheaded babies and mass rapes as real news stories.Everyone who uncritically parrots e very claim made by the IDF and the Israeli government but refuses to report what Palestinians have been saying unless Israel confirms it.Everyone at the press galleries in Washington who fail to forcefully interrogate US officials for the lies and spin they’ve been spewing about Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. Everyone who publishes White House press releases disguised as news stories about how angry and upset Biden is about the Israeli war crimes he knowingly refuses to prevent. Everyone who reports on starvation and sickness in Gaza like it’s some kind of natural disaster and not the inevitable consequence of deliberate siege warfare by Israel. Everyone who treated Iranian missiles targeting Israeli military facilities without killing anybody as more horrific and significant than Israel’s daily massacres of civilians. Everyone who uncritically regurgitates the phrase “Hamas-run health ministry”. Everyone who uncritically calls Hezbollah a “terrorist organization”. All the high-profile opinion columnists who’ve been running nonstop apologia for Israel’s criminality and encouraging the west to support even further aggressiveness. Reporters who refer to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria as “Iran-backed” but never refers to the Israeli military as “US-backed”. Everyone who helps frame the Biden administration as a passive and reluctant witness to Israel’s mass atrocities instead of a willing and active participant. Everyone who called Israel’s invasion of Lebanon a “limited ground operation” after ridiculing Russia for calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation”. Everyone who framed the pager bombings and assassination strikes in Lebanon as heroic achievements of extraordinarily sophisticated intelligence when they’d be shrieking their lungs out if a nation like Iran or Russia did anything similar. Everyone who helps lend credence to the false narrative that opposition to Israeli murderousness is indicative of an epidemic of “antisemitism” in our society. All the mass media staff who helped manufacture public consent for the horrors we’ve been watching in the middle east are just as responsible for what happens there as the people who are physically inflicting the violence. They may as well have dropped the bombs and launched the missiles themselves. They may as well have pulled the triggers on the sniper rifles that shot all those Palestinian children in the head. They may as well have personally inserted those iron rods into the anuses of Palestinian prisoners. The propagandists of the western press are just as essential to maintaining the western-backed atrocities that Israel is committing as the Israeli military itself. No matter how much you despise these psychopathic manipulators, it’s less than they deserve.