the largest withdrawal of natural gas from storage since mid-February, 2021; gasoline inventories at a 51 week high; the largest draw from distillates supplies since mid-March 2022; demand for distillates at a 34 month high
US oil prices fell for a second week following a four week run-up to a six month high. on the first increase in US crude inventories in 10 weeks, and on uncertainty as to the impact of Trump’s looming tariffs….after falling 3.5% to $74.66 a barrel last week after Trump declared a national energy emergency and demanded that OPEC and the Saudis lower prices, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery fell in overseas trading on Monday after Trump renewed calls for the OPEC countries to slash prices to pressure oil-rich Russia, then fell further through the New York session, amid losses in the US equity markets following the news of increased interest in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s lower cost artificial intelligence model, and settled $1.49 lower at $73.17 a barrel on Trump's ongoing tariff threats and on concerns over the potential for a slowdown in AI-related power demand….oil prices ticked up but hovered near a two-week low in Asian trading on Tuesday, after weak economic data from China and warming weather forecasts elsewhere soured the demand outlook, then moved higher in New York, supported by the news that protesters in Libya had prevented crude oil loadings at the country’s Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports, and finished the session 60 cents higher at $73.77 a barrel after the White House reaffirmed Trump's plans to issue tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports later this week….oil prices traded lower on Asian markets on Wednesday, as traders evaluated the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and held those losses early in New York after the EIA reported a surprise increase in US crude inventories, and settled $1.15 lower at $72.62 a barrel after domestic crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, the Fed held interest rates steady, and traders remained focused on Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico….oil prices continued to drop on world markets on Thursday amidst a confluence of negative factors, including news that the largest economies in Eurozone, Germany and France, had contracted by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, then bounced off the lows in New York and retraced some of their losses as the market turned its focus on the 25% tariffs threatened by Trump against Mexico and Canada and looked ahead to a meeting by OPEC scheduled for Monday, February 3rd, and settled 11 cents higher at $72.73 a barrel, with prices held in check by threatened U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports that could take effect by the weekend…oil prices traded higher in Asia on Friday as traders assessed the potential impact of tariffs that Trump had threatened to impose on Canadian and Mexican exports, but softened in New York trading as traders awaited a tariff decision by President Trump on crude imports from Canada and Mexico, and settled 20 cents lower a $72.53 a barrel, thus ending 2.9% lower for the week, even as oil prices rose 1% in aftermarket trading late Friday, after Trump said he expects his administration to lower proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10%, and to hold off duties on oil and gas until around February 18th, later than initially feared.
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the second time in three weeks on a shift in the February forecasts to milder temperatures….after falling 2.0% to $4.027 per mmBTU last week on recovering LNG demand and a shift to slightly colder forecasts, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for February delivery opened 26,4 cents lower Monday morning, as updated forecasts showed a notable reduction of heating degree days expected for the last week of January, and continued to slide to settle 33.0 cents, or 8% lower at $3.697 per mmBTU, as the cold weather that evaporated from forecasts portended demand erosion, while production climbed even as the natural gas rig count and frac spreads indicated reduced field activity…natural gas prices started Tuesday 17.1 cents lower than Monday's close, knocked down overnight by continued bearish forecasts for February, and settled the session 22.6 cents lower at $3.471 per mmBTU, as a decline in demand expected amid milder weather would slow natural gas inventory erosion after a possible historical withdrawal in data due Thursday…February natural gas opened 6.1 cents lower on the last day of trading for that contract, again knocked down overnight by above average temperature forecasts for the first week of February, but rolled off the board 6.4 cents higher at $3.535 per mmBTU after the Fed announced its decision to hold interest rates steady, while the contract price of natural gas for March delivery followed a similar trajectory and settled 4.8 cents higher at $3.170 per mmBTU…with markets now quoting the price of natural gas for March, that contract opened 1.5 cents lower on Thursday, then traded along the $3.130 mark leading up to the weekly storage report, and only jumped briefly to an intraday high of $3.171, as the historic storage drop was preemptively priced into the market, before turning south to settle 12.3 cents lower at $3.047 per mmBTU, as traders looked beyond the massive storage drawdown to weaker fundamentals…the March contract price was down another 2.7 cents after the open on Friday, as National Weather Service data pointed to a seasonally mild start to February, then edged higher in midday trading as a inventory deficit countered forecasts for benign weather and a return of robust production, but failed to hold the afternoon's modest gain and settled three-tenths of a cent lower at $3.044 per mmBTU on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than was previously expected, which left natural gas prices down 24.4% for the week, while the natural gas contract for March delivery, which had closed the prior week at $3.450 per mBTU, finished the week 11.8% lower..
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 24th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 321 billion cubic feet to 2,571 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 144 billion cubic feet, or 5.3% below the 2,715 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 24th of last year, and 111 billion cubic feet, or 4.1% less than the five-year average of 2,682 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 24th of January over the most recent five years….the 321 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was the largest withdrawal since winter storm Uri in February 2021, more than the 313 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts ahead of the report, and was quite a bit more than the 234 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, and also quite a bit more than the average 189 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late January week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 24th indicated that after a decrease in the amount of oil we refined and a big decrease in our oil exports, we were left with surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for first time in ten weeks, and for ninth time in thirty weeks, as demand for crude that the EIA could not account for was still a factor...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 532,000 barrels per day to average 6,448,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 621,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 829,000 barrels per day to average 3,686,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,762,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 24th, an average of 532,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 624,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 237,000 barrels per day lower at 13,240,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,626,000 barrels per day during the January 24th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,189,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 24th, an average of 333,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 530,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending January 24th averaged a rounded 907,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -907,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded net 530,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 495,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 35,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-ninth SPR increase in the past sixty-six weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,437,000 barrels per day last week, which was 3.5% more than the 6,211,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 237,000 barrels per day lower at 13,240,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 226,000 barrels per day lower at 12,810,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 11,000 barrels per day lower at 430,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 36.5% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 83.5% of their capacity while processing those 15,189,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 24th, down from their 85.9% utilization rate of a week earlier, and down from 91.7% utilization rate of two weeks earlier, reflecting the impact of much below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries….the 15,189,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 2.3% more than the 14,848,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the equally cold week ending January 26th of 2024, but 4.6% less than the 15,924,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 24th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.2%, also quite low, even for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 44,000 barrels per day to 9,193,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 24th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 43,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 0.9% less than the 9,281,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending January 26th of last year, but 0.4% more than the gasoline production of 9,158,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending January 24th, 2020….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 4,738,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 473,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that small production increase, our distillates output was 8.1% more than the 4,385,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 26th of 2024, but 4.8% less than the 4,979,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 24th, 2020…
Despite this week’s modest decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the eleventh consecutive week, increasing by 2,957,000 barrels to a 51 week high of 248,855,000 barrels during the week ending January 24th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,332,000 barrels to a 48 week high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose again this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 216,000 barrels per day to 8,302,000 barrels per day, because our exports of gasoline fell by 231,000 barrels per day to 762,000 barrels per day and because our imports of gasoline rose by 294,000 barrels per day to 634,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-one weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.1% below last January 26th’s gasoline inventories of 254,134,000 barrels, and were still slightly below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Meanwhile, in spite of this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the twelfth time in nineteen weeks, decreasing by 4,994,000 barrels to 123,951,000 barrels during the week ending January 24th, the largest draw from supplies since since March 4th, 2022, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,070,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 398,000 to a 34 month high of 4,506,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates fell by 202,000 barrels per day to 1,127,000 barrels per day, and our imports of distillates fell by 107,000 barrels per day to 182,000 barrels per day...After 31 inventory withdrawals over the past 54 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 5.2% below the 130,795,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 26th of 2024, and about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the drop in our oil exports and the decrease in oil refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 9th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, increasing by 3,463,000 barrels over the week, from a 34 month low of 411,663,000 barrels on January 17th to 415,126,000 barrels on January 24th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 1,017,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 30% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the forth weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this January 24th were 1.6% less than the 421,912,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 26th of 2024, and 8.3% less than the 452,688,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 27th of 2023, but were virtually unchanged from the 415,143,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on January 28th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count rose by 6 from the three year low it had fallen to last week, on a sever rig increase of rigs targeting oil. most of which were added in the Permian basin in New Mexico...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 31st, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 24th) and this week’s (January 31st) count, the third column shows last week’s January 24th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 2nd of February, 2024…
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New Driller Tiburon Plans to Start Drilling Utica in 2Q25 -- Last fall, MDN told you about a newly formed drilling company that aims to target the Ohio Utica Shale, a company called Tiburon Oil & Gas Partners, LLC (see Former Carrizo O&G Team Forms New Company to Drill in Ohio Utica). The company was founded by four former executives from Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. The company is backed with money from Post Oak Energy Capital. We’d not heard anything further about the company…until now.
Infinity Natural valued at $1.3 billion in debut as US energy IPOs rebound (Reuters) - Infinity Natural Resources was valued at $1.30 billion after its shares jumped nearly 11% in their NYSE debut on Friday, underscoring a rebound in energy listings against the backdrop of a more fossil fuel-friendly Trump administration.President Donald Trump plans to maximize oil and gas production and had declared a national energy emergency last week to accelerate permitting of oil, gas and power projects, roll back environmental protections and withdraw the U.S. from the climate pact.Shares of West Virginia-based Infinity opened at $22.16, above the initial public offering price of $20 apiece. They were last up at $22.08.The oil and natural gas producer, backed by buyout firms Pearl Energy Investments and NGP, sold 13.25 million shares within the marketed range of $18 and $21 apiece to raise $265 million. Founded in 2017, Infinity has grown over the years through a series of acquisitions. It has amassed about 93,000 net acres and its operations are located in the Appalachian basin in the northeastern U.S."Infinity seems to be a fundamentally solid company, with strong margins and growth backed by its continued increases in production and acquisitions," said Renaissance Capital senior research analyst Nicholas Smith.The company has more than doubled its profit in the first nine months of 2024.Infinity, which counts Marathon Oil, BP America and Blue Racer Midstream among its major customers, has exposure to both oil and gas assets, allowing it the flexibility to shift its drilling efforts based on commodity price changes..
CNX Finalizes $505 Million Acquisition of Apex Energy Assets in Appalachian Basin — CNX Resources Corp. has completed its $505 million acquisition of Apex Energy II LLC’s natural gas upstream and midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin. The deal, subject to certain adjustments, has an effective date of October 1, 2024. The acquisition strengthens CNX's position in the stacked Marcellus and Utica shale formations, adding undeveloped leasehold acreage and infrastructure that supports future development. The company expects the transaction to immediately enhance its free cash flow per share. "We look forward to demonstrating the unique CNX approach to operations and community relations to these new communities within the Apex footprint," CNX president and CEO Nick Deiuliis said. "We place a high priority on closely collaborating with our operating communities, local officials, and directly with residents to understand their needs and concerns." Deiuliis highlighted CNX's Radical Transparency initiative, which provides real-time environmental monitoring and disclosure in collaboration with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and the state Department of Environmental Protection. "This initiative offers local communities and residents an even greater level of transparency into our operations, which we believe is second to none in our industry. We look forward to bringing the Apex assets into the CNX family," he added.
7 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 20 – 26 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Jan 20 – 26, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells fell off a proverbial cliff. Two weeks ago, 41 new permits were issued. Last week, the number plummeted to just seven new permits issued. Perhaps the most interesting thing about last week’s numbers is that NO new permits were issued in the Keystone State (PA). We believe that’s the first time we’ve seen no new permits in PA. We wonder if there’s a problem with the reporting system (the state DEP’s reporting system is known to occasionally have issues). We’ll check again next week to see if PA’s numbers get updated. Meanwhile, there were four new permits for the Buckeye State (OH) and three for the Mountain State (WV). ANTERO RESOURCES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | TYLER COUNTY
Gas leak contained, residents allowed back home in Kenner -— A gas leak that caused authorities to close off the intersection of 30th Street and Ohio Avenue in Kenner has been safely contained, and residents have been allowed back into their homes.The leak was caused when a contractor hit a gas line, prompting a response from the Kenner Fire Department and Kenner Police Department. Atmos Energy has shut off the gas supply to the affected area and conducted checks on nearby homes for potential hazards.As of now, the area has been cleared, and authorities confirmed there are no further safety concerns. The situation is under control, and residents are free to return to their homes. Motorists and residents had previously been advised to avoid the area during the response, but the all-clear has now been issued.
Woodside Touts Market ‘Support’ for U.S. LNG Export Projects, Nears Louisiana FID --Woodside Energy Group Ltd. is honing in on a final investment decision (FID) for Louisiana LNG and focusing on its new Gulf Coast assets as investors embrace shifting North American natural gas dynamics, management said. CEO Meg O’Neill said the firm is targetingan FID for the first 16 million ton/year (Mt/y) phase of the Louisiana LNG export project by the e nd of March after making progress on its efforts to sell-down equity in the project. The disclosure narrowed Woodside’s FID target from sometime in early 2025 to 1Q2025. The Australian major previously disclosed plans to keep 50% ownership and associated volumes from the facility proposed south of Lake Charles, LA.
Plaquemines LNG Nears Commissioning Final Liquefaction Blocks of First Phase -- Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana is continuing to ramp up at a rapid pace with seven of the first phase’s nine liquefaction blocks being commissioned. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. Federal regulators authorized Venture Global LNG Inc. on Tuesday (Jan. 28) to introduce hazardous fluids and begin commissioning the seventh block. The blocks consist of two liquefaction trains, each with the capacity to produce slightly more than 72 MMcf/d. The first phase is designed to produce 1.3 Bcf/d of LNG. It is near design capacity as Venture Global is in the process of commissioning about 1 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity with the latest authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Argent LNG Looks to Supply 5 Mt/y to Petrobangla in Tentative Deal -- Argent LNG LLC has disclosed a proposed supply contract from its developing Louisiana project with Bangladesh’s Petrobangla, opening a door for the United States to fill the country’s growing natural gas demand. During a ceremony in Washington, DC, Argent management and Bangladeshi officials signed a heads of agreement (HOA) for up to 5 million tons/year (Mt/y) from Argent LNG. Along with marking Argent LNG’s first tentative supply agreement, the HOA is the first major LNG offtake contract disclosed since President Trump’s inauguration.
Unpredictable Year for U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Output as Trump Revamps Energy Goals, Say NGI Thought Leaders --A firehose of executive orders and announcements to reshape the federal bureaucracy followed President Trump’s inauguration last week, as the administration declared a national energy emergency while at the same time, lifting the pause on new LNG export approvals. How much pressure the president can put on the energy industry, though, which is facing oversupply and lower demand, is unclear. NGI’s thought leaders, who have their ears to the ground to delve into trends for natural gas supply, consumption and prices, turned the microphone on themselves recently to share their forecasts for 2025. “The president in his inauguration speech declared a ‘national energy emergency’ and said he would use all powers at his disposal to make the United States energy dominant, but the truth is, the country already is producing more natural gas and oil than ever before,” NGI’s Carolyn Davis, managing editor of news, said.
US natgas prices climb 2% on colder forecasts for February — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on some long-term forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand in February. That price increase came despite milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.535 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Futures for March (NGH25), which will soon be the front-month, were trading around $3.16 per mmBtu, which would be the lowest close since early December. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 102.2 bcfd so far in January, due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Jan. 21. All of that curtailed output was on track to be back in service on Wednesday. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 13. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 136.8 bcfd this week to 126.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use during last week's extreme cold peaked at 173.3 bcfd on Jan. 20 and 181.2 bcfd on Jan. 21, easily topping the prior daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.6 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas was trading near a 14-month high of around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Draw Of -321 Bcf Exceeds Expectations - On January 30, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage declined by -321 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -313 Bcf. In the previous week, working gas in storage declined by -223 Bcf.At current levels, stocks are -144 Bcf less than last year and -111 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.Natural gas prices moved lower as traders reacted to the EIA report. The report showed a bigger-than-expected inventory draw, but it looks that the market prepared for a stronger report due to the impact of Arctic Blast. The current demand for natural gas is low, which serves as a bearish catalyst for natural gas markets. Weather forecasts suggest that traders should prepare for light national demand over the next seven days.
US natural gas prices hold near 8-week low on forecasts for less cold - US natural gas futures held near an eight-week low on Friday on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.3 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $3.044 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Dec. 4 for a second day in a row. The decline kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since October 2024. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states fell from 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 102.5 bcfd so far in January, due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Jan. 21. All of the curtailed output was back in service by Jan. 28. After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 15, with some near normal days around Feb. 8-11. LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 136.4 bcfd this week to 123.8 bcfd next week before rising to 132.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use during last week’s extreme cold peaked at 173.3 bcfd on Jan. 20 and 181.2 bcfd on Jan. 21, easily topping the prior daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big US liquefied natural gas export plants rose to an average of 14.5 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
ExxonMobil High on Natural Gas ‘Well Into the 2050 Time Frame’ --The world’s largest natural gas and oil producer is on cruise control this year, with growth pinned to global LNG, the Permian Basin and Guyana’s offshore – as well as opportunities tied to the buildout of data centers, CEO Darren Woods said Friday. (ExxonMobil Global Liquefied natural gas LNG footprint) Speaking with investors during the fourth quarter conference call, Woods said ExxonMobil’s strategy out to 2030 remains on track as it builds opportunities across the board, including for LNG. “We continue to see really healthy demand and an important role for LNG around the world,” he told investors. “As we go out into the future, and you see economies grow and people's standards of living improve, and as countries around the world look to decarbonize and back out coal, LNG is going to play a really important role.”
Unprecedented earthquake hits San Antonio area town within days - Following a rare earthquake felt in the San Antonio area Wednesday night, another rare earthquake hit around the same area on Friday morning. According to the The United States Geological Survey, the agency responsible for tracking and analyzing earthquakes, the 3.6 magnitude earthquake hit near the South Texas town of Falls City just before 4 a.m. on Friday, January 31. The earthquake also had a depth of 2.7 km. While Wednesday night's near-historic 4.5 earthquake could be felt all the way to San Antonio, Friday morning's quake was felt only in the neighboring towns of Karnes City and Poth, the "Did You Feel It?" map shows. Wednesday's quake is the third strongest earthquake in South Texas history behind a 4.8 quake in 2011, and a 4.7 quake in February 2024 that also hit near Falls City. No damage has been reported as a result of Friday morning's quake. Over the past few months, there’s been a rapid spike in the number of earthquakes impacting South Central and West Texas. In particular, there has been a spike in quakes rattling towns around San Antonio – an area not known, historically, for its earthquakes. Earlier this month, a quake the South Texas town of Pearsall, which is located less than 60 miles southwest of San Antonio. That quake was a magnitude 2.1 and had a depth of 8.3 km., according to the USGS.
Atlas Energy Begins Driverless Truck Deliveries to Wells -- Bulk carrier Atlas Energy Solutions began shipments of proppant on two driverless trucks equipped with self-driving technology from Kodiak Robotics recently, in a first for the software developer, the companies said. Atlas produces and supplies proppant, gritty materials like frac sand mixed with fracking fluid that are used by oil and natural gas wells in western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Frac sand consists of small, uniform particles injected into rock formations alongside water to fracture rock in hydraulic drilling operations. The sand props open the fractures it creates. Atlas operates 12 proppant production facilities across the Permian Basin oil and gas region with a combined annual production capacity of 28 million tons. The proppant is shipped from the production facilities to the well pads. Austin, Texas-based Atlas operates a fleet of 120 trucks. Launching self-driving trucks coincided with Atlas’ first deliveries of sand on the Dune Express, a 42-mile, fully electric conveyor system carrying sand from the company’s Kermit, Texas, sand facility to an end-of-line loadout facility in eastern New Mexico. The trucks will transport sand from the Dune Express to Atlas customers across the Delaware Basin segment of the Permian Basin. “Incorporating these driverless RoboTrucks into our operations is a significant advancement in the automation of our business, enhancing our ability to maintain a fundamentally safe and reliable service at the best price for our customers,” Atlas CEO John Turner said. “Becoming the first company to operate our own autonomous semi-trucks and reaching 100 successful autonomous proppant deliveries demonstrates our unique commitment to driving innovation and automation across the Permian Basin’s rugged terrain, dust and heat,” Turner added. Starting bulk autonomous truck deliveries on private roads in the Permian Basin is a first for any Kodiak Robotics customer, the companies said Jan. 24.“This is an incredible moment, for us and for the autonomous trucking industry as we have officially delivered a commercial RoboTruck to a customer and launched commercial operations,” Kodiak founder and CEO Don Burnette said.“The commercialization of autonomous trucks has been a goal for the industry for many years, and it has now come to fruition. Kodiak is the first company to make autonomous trucking a real business, and this is a major step towards profitability for our company,” he added.
Enbridge making progress on Jefferson County oil spill — While Enbridge Energy continues to clean up its oil spill in Jefferson County, one environmental group still has concerns. Enbridge Energy first reported an oil spill at their Cambridge Station in November. Since then, the company said they have cleaned up more than 60% of it.The company also said that a failed gasket installed in the 70s led to the spill of about 70,000 gallons of crude oil. It occurred underground. However, both Enbridge and the Department of Natural Resources said the spill has not contaminated any of the residential water wells nearby.“We have a potable water well on our property because we have a bathroom and a sink and an office on that site and there is no contamination on that either,” said Paul Eberth, Enbridge director of operations for Midwest region. Amanda Langer is the president of Sustain Jefferson, an environmental group based in Jefferson County focused on promoting environmental health.Langer said this spill shows why more pipeline projects like Line 5 in Superior shouldn’t move forward.“These pipelines were from 1975 and seeing that they weren’t updated until something was going wrong concerns me,” said Langer. “Putting in new ones doesn’t seem like an infrastructure we should be trusting, especially in our delicate areas.” Enbridge Energy said following the spill, it has been checking its older equipment to prevent this from happening again. “Pipelines remain the safest mode to transport crude oil that we all use every day,” said Eberth. “It’s critical to our way of life. The incident isn’t acceptable. It’s not acceptable to Enbridge. This shouldn’t happen, but we are taking all steps to address it.”The DNR said more than 100 oil spills are reported to them each year. However, the agency said they only make them public knowledge when there is potential harm to the public.In this case, this spill in Jefferson County was first reported at 2 gallons in November, but that number changed a month later.“Once the department was notified that the discharge from the station was much larger than originally notified, we took proactive steps to start notifying, making more of that public knowledge,” said Trevor Nobile, DNR field operations director. Langer said there is a lesson to be learned here.“I hope that after looking at this spill and just the amount of soil, the amount of oil that was spilled, it helps us realize that we need to be putting more of our future energy dependence on renewable energy and renewable resources and moving away from stuff that has the potential to poison our land and our water and our soil,” said Langer.
Why Oil Industry Jobs Are Down, Even With Production Up - The industry is pumping ever more oil and natural gas, but it is doing so with only about three-quarters as many workers as it employed a decade ago. For years, as oil and gas companies increased production, they hired lots of workers, enriching communities across the United States. That is no longer true. The country is pumping more oil than ever and near-record amounts of gas. But the companies that extract, transport and process these fossil fuels employ roughly 25 percent fewer workers than they did a decade earlier when they were churning out less fuel, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data. Now, with some worried about a looming oversupply of oil, producers are tightening their belt, with spending across North America expected to fall 3 percent this year, according to Barclays. That raises the specter of further job losses, even as President Trump urges companies to “drill, baby, drill.” The thinning out of American oil and gas jobs is reminiscent of the long decline of the U.S. coal industry, where employment crested decades before production fell as mining companies extracted more rocks with fewer people. Two decades into the shale boom, companies are drilling wells that extend deeper into the earth, unlocking more oil and natural gas. New technology is letting them oversee drilling, fracking and production from afar, with fewer people on-site. And larger companies are snapping up smaller players, shedding accountants, engineers and other workers as they go. While the total number of jobs has increased from the bleakest days of the pandemic, far fewer people are working in the industry than before Covid. Among the cost-cutting techniques being pursued by Exxon Mobil and Chevron: hiring engineers and geologists in India, where labor is cheaper, to support activities in the United States and elsewhere. The decline in oil and gas work also reflects the continuing transition to cleaner forms of energy, even if that shift is happening more slowly than many analysts had anticipated a few years ago. “You won’t see a lot of job growth in just the basic act of producing oil and natural gas,” Chris Wright, chief executive of the oil field services company Liberty Energy, said in an interview before Mr. Trump tapped him to lead the Energy Department. The industry, Mr. Wright said, is “on a trend now of flat to maybe gradually declining employment.”Mr. Trump will “protect our energy jobs” while lowering costs for consumers, said Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman. During the first half of the American fracking boom, oil and gas companies added workers at a much faster clip than other industries. The industry nearly doubled in size over 10 years, turbocharging the economies of places like North Dakota, home to the Bakken shale formation. Then, in 2014, oil prices crashed. It took a couple of years, but U.S. production eventually bounced back, soaring to a record of nearly 13.5 million barrels a day last fall. Employment never fully recovered, though, entering an undulating decline punctuated by booms and busts, most recently during the pandemic, when oil prices briefly plunged below zero. oil and gas companies slashed budgets and did whatever they could to survive. They drilled ever-bigger wells and installed sensors and other technology that enabled more remote work. Many turned to natural gas to power fracking equipment, rather than diesel, and found that it was cleaner and faster. Highly indebted companies didn’t make it, with more than 100 producers and service firms seeking bankruptcy protection in 2020, according to the law firm Haynes Boone. By late 2024, the number of drilling rigs operating in the United States had fallen roughly 28 percent in five years, federal data show. And still production climbed.“We get three times as many wells from a rig today that we did in 2018 or 2019,” Bart Cahir, who leads Exxon’s shale division, said in an interview last year. “Per person, we’re producing a lot more.”That the oil and gas industry has become more productive is good news for the economy, which benefits when people are able to do more with less, said Jesse Thompson, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.“But in the meantime,” he added, “there are firms and individuals and communities that can lose out.”One consequence of the industry’s efficiency drive is that oil and gas companies, known for paying well, are no longer offering as much of a premium over other industries. Before the pandemic, average wages in oil and gas production were more than 60 percent higher than those in manufacturing, construction and other related industries, federal data show. By last fall, that premium had narrowed to little more than 30 percent.
U.S. E&P Forecasts Tempered for ‘25, but Power Pivot to Natural Gas Expected-- The U.S. energy sector is laying out development plans for 2025 as earnings season gets underway, but a push by President Trump to step up natural gas and oil activity is unlikely to move the needle too much, based on an early analysis. NGI's Top 30 U.S. natural gas producers in 3Q2024. The big wildcard is what the impact will be during the first year of the Trump 2.0 presidency. The new president, through executive orders, wants exploration and production (E&P) companies and the oilfield services (OFS) companies that serve them to have more leasing options and fewer regulatory burdens.
The Beginning of Drill Baby Drill? US Oil Drillers See Uptick In Activity The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, after a 4-rig drop in each of the two weeks prior.The total rig count rose by six rigs, to 582, according to Baker Hughes, down 37 from this same time last year.The number of oil rigs rose by 7—down by 20 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 1, reaching 98, a loss of 19 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5.The latest EIA data showed that weekly U.S. crude oil production for the week ending January 24 dipped again, this time to 13.240 million bpd—the lowest levels since November 2024, falling from 13.477 million bpd in the week prior. The figure is almost 400,000 bpdshy of the all-time high reached during the week of December 6, 2024.Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing wells that are unfinished also fell for the third week in a row. Finishing crews are now down to 183 during the week of January 24, falling from 188 in the week prior. The frac spread count is now at its lowest level since March 2021.There was a spike in drilling activity in the Permian Basin, with the basin seeing a 5-rig climb to 303 active rigs—a figure that is still 8 fewer than this same time last year. The count in the Eagle Ford rose by 1 rig for the third week in a row, to 46. Rigs in the Eagle Ford are now 6 below where they were this time last year.Oil prices were trading down on Friday before the data release. At 12:52 pm. ET, the WTI benchmark was trading down $0.55 per barrel (-0.76%) on the day at $72.18, down nearly $2 per barrel compared to last Friday’s price. The Brent benchmark was trading down $0.12 (-0.16%) on the day at $76.75—down $1.50 per barrel compared to last Friday’s price.
Oil Executives Fume as Trump Shakes Up Climate Rules Again --President Donald Trump has been busy reversing the Biden administration’s so-called climate policies from the moment he was sworn in. He declared a national energy emergency, revoked the Biden ban on new LNG export capacity, and suspended some $300 billion in funding for transition projects in the country. With that, he has made one unlikely group angry: Big Oil executives.The 47th president’s political agenda is nothing if not oil and gas friendly. In fact, oil and gas are among Trump’s top priorities, and he has wasted no time in making life easier for the industry players after four years of extra regulatory and political pressure under Biden. Yet oil executives' apparent frustration with Trump’s reversal of Biden policies is unlikely and perhaps surprising on the surface.Below this surface sits all the money that Big Oil invested in its own transition, under pressure, indeed, but quite a lot of money. The projects this money has been invested in may well become stranded assets now, in an ironic twist of environmentalists’ warnings that oil and gas fields are about to become stranded assets in a transitional world.Reuters reported this week that some in the oil industry were unhappy about Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. This is the second time Trump has done it and, again according to Reuters, it would jeopardize global efforts to reverse global climatic trends. Not only that, but the withdrawal would reduce the availability of cash for transition investment and confuse investors as the paths of the U.S. and Europe diverge.According to the report, some executives in the energy industry believe that they could have a greater say over the energy transition if the United States is in the Paris Agreement. Yet industry players have more immediate priorities, and these have nothing to do with any climate pacts.“While we prefer that the U.S. government remain engaged in the UN climate process, the private sector is committed to developing the solutions necessary to meet the energy needs of a growing global economy while addressing the climate challenge,” Marty Durbin, president of the Global Energy Institute at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told Reuters.There is a rather practical reason energy executives would prefer the U.S. government to remain engaged in the UN climate process: those transition investments. Every large oil company has been forced to devise a transition strategy in the recent past, and every large oil company has done so. They have been pushed to invest in low-carbon alternatives to their core products and they have invested, often heavily—and they have received subsidies to pursue these alternatives further.Occidental Petroleum’s direct air capture plans are a case in point. The oil major back in 2023bought a company developing technology that can suck carbon dioxide straight from the air. Oxy spent $1.1 billion on that purchase, eyeing a market that BloombergNEF said could grow into a segment worth $150 billion annually. And the Biden administration was shouldering part of the costs with subsidies. Now, these are gone, threatening the very survival of direct air capture—and more conventional carbon capture investments. No wonder Occidental’s chief executive approached Trump directly during a campaign event to argue the case for leaving IRA funding for carbon capture untouched. Oxy is far from the only one spending big on the transition and carbon capture. Exxon has also spent heftily on developing a carbon capture business.“It's critical that any conversation about addressing climate change must be global in nature, and also recognize that America is the world leader in both energy production and emissions reductions,” the president of the American Exploration and Production Council, Anne Bradbury, told Reuters.Indeed, after so much money spent on transitioning, even partially, it must be frustrating for oil executives to be thrown back into an industry-friendly environment, positive as it is for their business. This is, in fact, the uncertainty that analysts—and industry executives—have been talking about for years. All industries like certainty, even if this is the kind of certainty that would affect their industry negatively, like Biden’s climate policies. They were harmful to oil and gas, but they were certain, so companies could take steps to mitigate the impact.Now, with Trump, it’s back to normal, but companies could never know what would happen in four years, so they will be wary of reversing their current priorities too suddenly. The good news is that most of them are already walking back their transition targets after those targets proved quite unrealistic. Even European Big Oil is going back on transition promises after discovering these promises could not be fulfilled—not at a profit, at least.So, what many hoped would happen during Trump’s presidency may indeed happen: Big Oil protecting its transition investments and pressuring Trump into not completely doing away with Biden’s climate laws, at least until there’s hard proof carbon capture does not make money, but loses money.
Trump eyes Feb. 18 for oil tariffs, expects lower duty for Canada (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he expects his administration to impose tariffs related to oil and gas around Feb. 18 and it could reduce the planned levy on some Canadian crude. The U.S. imports some 4 million barrels per day of oil from Canada, roughly 70% of which is processed by refiners in the U.S. Midwest. A tariff on oil imports could lead to lower production of fuel at those facilities and drive up costs for consumers, analysts and companies have warned. Trump did not name a specific country to which the new tariffs would apply or provide any more details about the plans. "We're going to put tariffs on oil and gas," Trump told reporters in the White House's Oval Office. "That'll happen fairly soon, I think around the 18th of February." Asked if tomorrow's tariffs would include Canadian crude, Trump said: "I'm probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that. We think we're going to bring it down to 10% for the oil." That would be instead of 25% that Trump has previously spoken about. Many U.S. oil refiners, especially in the Midwest, rely on imported crude because their facilities are configured to run heavier crude grades, such as those from Mexico and Canada. They are awaiting clarity while preparing for the new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports. Earlier this month, imports of crude from Canada to the United States hit record levels. U.S. refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N), opens new tab expects production cuts in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain region where alternative crude supplies are limited if tariffs take effect. Phillips 66, along with HF Sinclair and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR.N), opens new tab have elevated exposure to Canadian crude, data from TD Cowen shows. "Our commercial and optimization teams have been working hard to develop every possible scenario we can think of and how we would respond" to Trump's tariffs, said Gary Simmons, chief operating officer of Valero, during call with analysts on Thursday. Valero is the second-largest U.S. refiner by capacity.
Shell Still Eyes Mid-Year Start for LNG Canada, but Forecasts Second ‘Slow’ Year for Natural Gas -- Shell plc continues on course to begin exporting natural gas to Asian markets from the LNG Canada project in British Columbia later this year. However, there are no illusions that 2025 will be a growth year for natural gas, CEO Wael Sawan said Thursday. Bar graph showing Shell's progress toward various global E&P projects. The CEO presided over a conference call with CFO Sinead Gorman to discuss fourth quarter and full-year performance. Sawan also provided some insight into what kind of year this may be for the No. 1 global natural gas trader. “On LNG, 2024 was very light on use of supply,” he told analysts. “We anticipate 2025 will be of a similar magnitude. So that's two relatively slow years at a time when latent demand continues to grow.”
Global Natural Gas Supplies Forecast to Remain Tight in 2025 as Demand Growth Continues, IEA Says - Global natural gas demand hit an all-time record in 2024 and is poised to continue growing this year, albeit at a lower rate as supply expands more slowly than in years past, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest quarterly gas report. Bar chart showing future global natural gas demand growth through 2030. Fast-growing Asian markets pushed global gas demand in 2024 up by 2.8% year-over-year, or by 115 billion cubic meters (Bcm), IEA said. That was above the 2% average growth rate between 2010 and 2020. Natural gas met around 40% of the increase in global energy demand last year, a greater share than any other fuel thanks largely to supportive policies, IEA said. Tighter market fundamentals are expected to keep prices elevated this year. IEA forecast year/year natural gas demand growth to drop below 2% in 2025. Asia is expected to account for more than half of the rise in global gas consumption this year.
Germany’s Russian LNG Imports Surge Over 500% in 2024 - Germany’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) soared by 500% in 2024 year-on-year, reaching a total value of 7.32 billion euros, the Financial Times reported, citing a report by Belgian, German and Ukrainian NGOs.Though Berlin has officially banned direct imports of Russian LNG to its new facilities on the north coast, it has been receiving Russian liquified gas via face-saving intermediary ports elsewhere in Europe.The German state-owned energy company Sefe, formerly part of Gazprom and nationalized in 2022, purchased 58 cargos of LNG via the French port of Dunkirk last year — marking a more than 500% increase from the previous year, FT cited the report as saying.Between 3% and 9.2% of Germany's gas supply still originates from Russia, reaching the country through other EU members, according to the data.Previously, Germany was heavily dependent on Russian piped gas to power its economy and had not yet built LNG terminals. This made the country almost entirely dependent on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines carrying gas from Russia’s giant Yamal gas fields to Lubmin, a coastal town in northeastern Germany.Following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Berlin banned direct imports of Russian gas but continued to import it via third parties. However, with reduced volumes and soaring costs, the end of cheap imported Russian gas has led to the deindustrialization of the German economy and sent the former powerhouse of Europe into a two-year recession.A significant portion of Russian LNG arrives at Belgian ports, where it is re-gasified and transported via pipelines across Europe. Once in Germany, also home to the largest gas storage tanks in the EU, the gas is typically recorded as Belgian in official energy statistics, despite Belgium having no domestic LNG production. Belgium is among the largest importers of Russian LNG, alongside Spain and France. In 2024, Russian LNG supplies to Europe reached a record 17.2 billion cubic meters, with a portion of these shipments bound by long-term contracts that companies are unable to terminate.Europe remains hooked on Russian gas and has been unable to find alternative sources of energy.The EU is currently preparing a 16th package of sanctions on Russia that will be released on the third anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine. Despite recent calls by 10 EU members to ban Russian LNG imports, LNG will not be included in the upcoming sanctions package.
Upside Seen for TTF This Summer as Natural Gas Storage Drawdown Continues – European natural gas prices declined on Monday as U.S. LNG supply constraints eased and weather patterns shifted warmer. (a chart showing natural gas storage levels in Europe) The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract closed 4% lower after surging past $15/MMBtu to its highest point since late 2023 last week, when a rare winter storm swept over the Gulf Coast, limiting LNG vessel traffic and forcing Freeport LNG to shut down on Jan. 21. Freeport spokesperson Heather Browne told NGI Monday that the facility was back online. The plant’s feed gas nominations were back at pre-outage levels. The British Listener vessel also berthed at the terminal on Sunday and has since been loaded, according to Kpler.
TTF Hits Highest Level Since 2023 as Focus Shifts to Injection Season — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market --Hawaii is considering importing LNG to help cut electricity costs and improve reliability. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. The Hawaii State Energy Office released a study exploring ways to bolster the state’s energy supplies in the wake of the Maui wildfires of 2023. The study suggested that the site of a demolished coal plant on Oahu could be used to import the super-chilled fuel from a floating regasification and storage unit offshore. The study calls for converting oil-fired power plants to run on LNG by 2030 in order to capitalize on cost savings. The Jones Act, which prohibits cargoes moving between U.S. ports, would require the state to import the fuel from other nations like Canada, Australia or Mexico, the study acknowledged.
Russia increases gas export through pipelines more than 15% -Russia has exported more than 119 billion cubic meters of gas via pipelines in 2024, which marks a 15.6% increase compared to the previous year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, APA-Economics reports. "Gas exports via pipelines increased by 15.6% reaching more than 119 billion cubic meters, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increased by 4%, reaching approximately 47.2 billion cubic meters," Alexander Novak wrote in an article published in the "Energy Policy" journal. According to him, in 2024, gas production in Russia reached approximately 685 billion cubic meters, which is 7.6% more than the 2023 figure.
EU Weighs Resuming Russian Pipeline Gas Imports to Spur Ukraine Peace Talks – FT - EU officials are debating whether to restart Russian pipeline gas imports as a potential incentive for Moscow to negotiate peace with Ukraine, the Financial Times reported Thursday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the discussions. Some German and Hungarian officials and counterparts in other unnamed European capitals have reportedly backed the idea also as a way to lower the bloc’s rising energy costs. According to FT, the proposal could “encourage Moscow to the negotiating table and give both sides a reason to implement and maintain a ceasefire.” “There is pressure from some big member states on energy prices, and this is one way to bring those down,” one official was quoted as saying. However, Ukraine’s closest EU allies in Eastern Europe — many of whom have worked to eliminate their dependence on Russian energy — were reportedly “infuriated” by the proposal. “It’s madness,” another official told FT. “How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?” Russia halted pipeline gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine on Jan. 1 after Kyiv refused to renegotiate a transit agreement in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Prior to the cutoff, the pipeline transported around 50% of Russia’s pipeline gas exports — mainly to Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and non-EU member Moldova. Despite banning nearly all Russian pipeline gas and oil imports, the EU imported a record 17.8 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024. The bloc has committed to phasing out Russian fossil fuel imports entirely by 2027. While the EU banned Russian crude oil and coal following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it has not yet imposed restrictions on Russian pipeline gas or LNG. Earlier this week, however, FT reported that the bloc was considering import restrictions on Russian LNG as part of its next sanctions package, expected to be announced next month.
European Imports of Russian LNG Hit 'Record Levels' in 2024 - According to the Kpler global trade intelligence firm, Russia exported a record 33.6 million tons (45.7 billion cubic meters) of LNG to Europe in 2024, up 4% compared to 2023, equivalent to a third of Russia’s pre-war exports of gas to Europe. And piped gas exports to Europe, largely to Hungary, Turkey and Slovakia, were up a hefty 20%. More than half (52%) of Russian LNG exports went to Europe, which remains Russia’s most important market. China imported another 31 bcm via the Power of Siberia pipeline, more than doubling the volume of imports since the war in Ukraine started. The pipeline is designed to deliver up to 38 bcm of natural gas annually to China and the Power of Siberia 2 will add another 50 bcm if it is eventually built.Discussions are also ongoing regarding a potential new route through Kazakhstan capable of delivering up to 35 bcm annually. Russia reversed the flow of Soviet-era pipelines to Central Asia last year and is already sending about 5 bcm of gas to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.Despite the energy dearth, EU leaders are still calling for a ban on Russian gas imports, a call repeated last week by German Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz, who is widely expected to succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz following February's general election.The EU recently published a roadmap for abandoning Russian LNG by 2027 but its members are deeply divided on the issue.The largest buyers of Russian LNG in the EU in 2024 were France (6.3 million tons), Spain (4.8 million tons), Belgium (4.4 million tons) and the Netherlands (1.3 million tons).But this distorts the true picture of consumption: the same Germany that banned the reception of gas carriers with Russian LNG at its terminals imports gas through France. As a result, even now 3-9% of the gas consumed in Germany is of Russian origin. The total share of Russian LNG in EU imports approached 20% in 2024, up from 15% a year earlier.The main buyers in Asia — China and Japan — overtook the European leaders only slightly, having received 7 million tons and 5.7 million tons respectively.Two-thirds of the LNG for export (21.1 million tons) was shipped by the Russian company Novatek from its plant in the Yamal gas fields. Russia’s total share of the EU gas market, taking into account the cessation of pipeline gas supplies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has fallen from 40% to 6%.
Rescue teams empty 1,500 tons of oil from Russian tanker (AP) — Rescue workers have successfully removed almost 1,500 tons of oil left onboard a tanker that ran aground last year in southern Russia, officials said Saturday. The mishap resulted in a devastating oil spill that damaged miles (kilometers) of coastline along the Black Sea. Two Russian ships, the Volgoneft-239 and the Volgoneft-212, were badly damaged in stormy weather on Dec. 15, resulting in thousands of tons of low-grade fuel oil called mazut spilling into the Kerch Strait. A crew from Russia’s Marine Rescue Service siphoned away the remaining 1,488 tons of oil left in the grounded Volgoneft-239 in a six-day operation, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev said Saturday in a post on the Russian government’s official Telegram channel. Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov announced that the damaged tanker would be drained earlier this month but workers found it was continuing to leak oil into the water. More For You The Volgoneft-239 will now be cleaned and prepared for being dismantled, Savelyev said. The fate of the second tanker, the Volgoneft-212, remains undecided after the boat sank beneath the waves. So far, oil from the spill has washed up along beaches in Russia’s Krasnodar region, as well as in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions of Crimea and the Berdyansk Spit, some 145 kilometers (90 miles) north of the Kerch Strait. President Vladimir Putin earlier in January called the spill “one of the most serious environmental challenges we have faced in recent years.” Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry said Saturday that more than 173,000 tons of contaminated sand and soil have so far been collected by the weekslong cleanup effort, with thousands of volunteers joining the operation.
Cleanup of almost 1,700 litres of diesel underway at Diavik diamond mine - A fuel truck at Diavik Diamond Mine tipped and spilled almost 1,700 litres of diesel in December. In a follow-up spill report submitted to the GNWT, Rio Tinto, the company that owns the diamond mine, states that on Dec, 19, a fuel truck rolled onto its side and 1,688 litres of diesel leaked through its top air vent. "After ensuring the safety of the involved person and stabilizing the tipped vehicle, measures were taken to minimize the volume of spilled diesel by catching it in buckets until the air vent could be sealed," reads the report, filed Jan. 20. The remainder of the fuel that had not spilled was pumped out of the truck before the vehicle was brought upright and removed from the scene. Rio Tinto says it anticipates that the cleanup will be completed by the end of January. As of Jan. 20, the mine had cleaned up about 600 cubic meters of the contaminated area — approximately the equivalent of a large shipping container. "The road in question was generally only used for seasonal de-watering prior to area closure activities," the Rio Tinto report explains, adding that the route was not designed with sufficient criteria, such as having berms and signage for heavy equipment in winter conditions. "A site-wide audit of roads and intersections for design and signage risks is underway to prevent recurrence as area uses continue to change with progressive closure activities."
Pipeline vandalism reduces gas exports by 20% – Report -- Nigeria’s exports of liquefied natural gas saw a significant decline of 20 per cent last week, following an attack by suspected vandals who damaged crucial pipelines. is disruption severely affected gas supplies to the country’s LNG plants, leading to a sharp reduction in production and exports, a report by Bloomberg stated on Thursday. The hit on the country’s LNG exports is due to persistent vandalism and sabotage of pipelines in the Niger Delta region. The report stated that the sabotage and vandalism has curtailed gas supplies to its plant and is affecting scheduled shipments. The development indicates that the Federal Government is likely to lose projected revenue remittance from the company to fund its N49.74tn 2025 budget. The NLNG’s General Manager for external relations and sustainable development, Sophia Horsfall, in an email response said, “The loss of facilities due to vandalism and sabotage impacts feed-gas supplies to NLNG and delivery timelines.” It was noted that shipments planned for exports next month may be delayed for at least 10 days due to the substantial loss of pipeline vandalism. Nigeria’s gas exports have faced disruptions due to security issues in the Niger Delta region, although shipments from the NLNG complex saw a rebound in 2024. With the persistent sabotage of oil and gas installations, Nigeria is losing its recent gains in production and supplies, and it’s unable to meet demands.
Second oil spill reported at site of future Marine Corps airfield on Okinawa -- A construction vessel spilled oil at the site of a future Marine Corps airfield in northern Okinawa over the weekend, the second such incident in 10 days. The spill occurred just more than a mile north-northeast of Cape Henoko in Nago city at 11:50 a.m. Saturday, according to a Japan coast guard news release that day. No injuries or environmental damage were reported. The airfield is under construction at the Marine Corps’ Camp Schwab on land reclaimed from Oura Bay to replace Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in densely populated Ginowan city. The U.S. and Japanese governments agreed to move the base in 1996. The Okinawa prefectural government took to the courts to delay construction until recently. A contractor at the airfield site reported at 12:19 p.m. that hydraulic oil spilled from a crane on a 2.3-ton dredging vessel operating off the coast, according to the coast guard. The coast guard confirmed oil seepage on the water’s surface, and contractors installed an oil fence and an oil absorption mat to recover the oil. No additional oil was found leaking out of the oil fence by 2:45 p.m., according to the release. The vessel was using its crane to install equipment on another small vessel at the time of the spill. The cause is under investigation, according to the release. On Jan. 15, hydraulic oil spilled from a drill on a different vessel that was boring into the seabed. No environmental damage or injuries were reported, and the spill was contained the same day, the coast guard said.
Saudi Arabia Set to Hike Oil Prices to Asia to 14-Month High - Refiners in Asia expect Saudi Arabia to hike its official selling prices (OSPs) to Asia for March to the highest against benchmarks since January 2024, a Reuters survey found on Monday, as Middle East’s key benchmarks are rallying on tightened Russian supply to China and India after the latest U.S. sanctions. Saudi Aramco, the world’s top crude oil exporter, is expected to raise the price of its flagship Arab Light grade to Asia loading in March by up to $2.50 per barrel over the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, three refiners in the Reuters poll said. Another refinery source expects Aramco to hike its OSPs for all grades by $3 per barrel. If Saudi Arabia does next week as expected, the price of Arab Light could jump to a premium of at least $3.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, which is used by Middle Eastern exporters to price their crude going to Asia. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its crude loading for Asia in February by more than expected as supply in the world’s largest-importing region was tightening with the continued OPEC+ cuts and reduced volumes from Iran and Russia. Arab Light loading in February to Asia is priced at a premium of $1.50 over the Oman/Dubai average. The hike for March loadings which Asian refiners now expect could raise the premium of Arab Light to at least $3.50 per barrel over Oman/Dubai and would be the highest such premium since January 2024, according to data compiled by Reuters. The Oman and Dubai benchmarks have rallied in the past month amid lower supply from Russia and Iran and have surged since the U.S. slapped on January 10 the most aggressive sanctions on Russian oil trade yet. Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes. It also sets the tone for the pricing to Asia of the other major oil producers in the Middle East.
Oil Prices Dip As Trump Urges OPEC To Cut Costs Amid Ukraine War - Global oil prices fell on Monday following renewed calls by former U.S. President Donald Trump for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to slash prices. Trump’s remarks were tied to his strategy to pressure oil-rich Russia financially and expedite the end of the war in Ukraine. By 04:30 GMT, Brent crude futures had slipped by 53 cents (0.68%), trading at $77.97 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 50 cents (0.67%) to settle at $74.16 per barrel. Speaking on Friday, Trump called on OPEC to “stop making so much money and drop the price of oil,” suggesting that such a move could accelerate the resolution of the Ukraine conflict. He also warned of potential taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on Russia and its allies if diplomatic progress on the war was not achieved soon. “One way to stop [the war] quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil … That war will stop right away,” Trump stated. Russian President Vladimir Putin, responding to Trump’s comments, expressed openness to meeting with him to discuss energy prices and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Market analysts have noted that Trump’s policies to boost U.S. oil and gas output are aimed at securing overseas markets for American crude, potentially challenging OPEC’s market dominance. “He’s going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share, so in that sense, he’s kind of a competitor,” said Stephen Driscoll, an oil market analyst. Despite Trump’s call, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have yet to issue an official response. Delegates from the OPEC+ coalition pointed to their existing plan to gradually increase oil output starting in April. The downward pressure on oil prices comes after both Brent and WTI benchmarks recorded their first weekly decline in five weeks. This easing of prices follows reduced concerns about sanctions disrupting Russian oil supplies. Goldman Sachs analysts have projected minimal impact on Russian oil production, citing the availability of non-sanctioned ships to transport Russian crude and the appeal of discounted Russian ESPO grades to price-sensitive buyers. “As the ultimate goal of sanctions is to reduce Russian oil revenues, we assume that Western policymakers will prioritize maximizing discounts on Russian barrels over reducing Russian volumes,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report. Trump’s push for lower oil prices and his broader strategy to boost U.S. oil exports signal potential shifts in global energy markets. While OPEC+ remains committed to its output plan, the interplay between U.S. production policies, geopolitical tensions, and demand for discounted Russian oil will likely shape oil price dynamics in the coming months.
The Crude Market Traded Lower Amid Losses in the Equity Markets -- The crude market traded lower on Monday amid the losses seen in the equity markets following the news of increasing interest in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low cost artificial intelligence model. The oil market was already pressured earlier after the U.S. threatened and then reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia over the weekend after the South American country agreed to accept deported migrants from the U.S. The market was also pressured as Chinese manufacturing data for January was weaker than expected. The crude market, which held resistance at its previous high of $75.21, posted a high of $75.15 in overnight trading. However, the market sold off sharply in tandem with the equities market and posted a low of $72.38. It retraced 62% of its move from a low of $68.05 to a high of $79.39. The oil market later bounced off its low and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled down $1.49 at $73.17, while the Brent contract ended the session down $1.42 cents at $77.08. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 5.62 cents at $2.46 and the RB market settling down 2.08 cents at $2.0282. Goldman Sachs said it maintained its $3.30/gallon U.S. retail gasoline forecast for 2025 and forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices in 2026 at $3.10/gallon. Israel’s Walla News reported Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House next week. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.4 million bpd of capacity in the week ending January 31st, cutting available refining capacity by 195,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.46 million bpd in the week ending February 7th. On Friday, CVR Energy said its 132,000 bpd refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas, has begun planned turnaround work following a fire at the plant’s naphtha hydrotreater on Tuesday. Kommersant daily reported that Russian companies decreased oil exports by 2.2% on the year to 295.12 million metric tons in 2024. Shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and the Czech Republic, as well as from the ports of Novorossiisk and Ust-Luga, decreased. However, shipments increased via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and from the port of Kozmino. Two industry sources said Russian refineries are processing more crude oil in the hope of increasing fuel exports after new U.S. sanctions on Russian tankers and traders made exports of unprocessed crude more difficult. Russian refining runs increased 2% or by 108,000 barrels to 754,800 metric tons a day on January 15th-19th from the first week of the year. It was also up 1.2% from the average for January 2024. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported Monday morning that the U.S. experienced a total of 317 HDDs for the week ending January 25th on an oil home heating customer population weighted basis. This was 20.5% more than normal for the week and 21.5% higher than the same week a year ago. For the current week, ending February 1st, the CPC is forecasting just some 233 HDDs, 10.8% less than normal but 15.3% more than the same week a year ago.
Oil prices end lower on Trump's tariff talk, concerns over AI-related power demand - Oil futures settled lower on Monday, as the Trump administration's ongoing tariff threats and their potential economic impact, along with concerns over the potential for a slowdown in AI-related power demand, contributed to a 2% drop in U.S. benchmark crude prices. President Donald Trump paused steep retaliatory tariffs that he had threatened against Colombia, a key source of U.S. crude imports, but the risk of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico remained. Meanwhile, the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek, which has cheaply trained high-performing artificial-intelligence models, raised concerns about the outlook for AI-related spending and power needs.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery declined by $1.49, or 2%, to settle at $73.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, shed $1.42, or 1.8%, to $77.08 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- February gasoline RBG25 lost 1% to $2.03 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG25 fell 2.2% to $2.46 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 settled at $3.70 per million British thermal units, down 8.2%, after gaining 2% last week.
Trump said early Sunday he would slap retaliatory tariffs of 25% on products from Colombia and take other measures against the country after it refused to allow two military flights carrying deported migrants to land. Trump dropped those threats after the White House said Colombia had met its demands. Tariffs threatened to crimp an important flow of crude into the United States. Colombia is the nation's fourth-largest supplier of crude, exporting a little more than 200,000 barrels a day, noted Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING. Colombia's key export grades are heavier crudes of the type used by U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. Tariff-related worries may remain a factor in the oil market. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that momentum is growing among White House advisers for putting 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday. Both countries are also sources of heavy crude used by Gulf Coast refiners. "The larger ramification from the tariff actions directed toward Colombia is that it provides an important context amid looming threats of boosted tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as soon as Feb. 1st," analysts at J.P. Morgan wrote in a note dated Monday. Potential tariffs on imports from these countries "could be much more impactful to both complex-wide pricing and U.S. price differentials more specifically," they said, adding that this likely means "continued increased volatility around trade headlines in the coming weeks." Threats of tariffs, meanwhile, are also "bearish for the global economy, and especially for China, where demand is already expected to be anemic," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Oil prices also declined on the back of losses in the U.S. stock market, which saw benchmark stock indexes trade sharply lower in Monday dealings, with the Nasdaq Composite COMP dropping more than 3% and shares of chip giant and AI standard-bearer Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) plunging 18%. The stock market on Monday may post one of the biggest threats to oil, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, in a daily report. "If we continue this major meltdown, we could see some risk off buying in the crude oil," he said. "Sometimes when the stock market really gets hit, we see that risk off selling in oil and gas. [If] the stock market stabilizes though, look for all the oil and products that bounce back pretty sharply." In comments directly to MarketWatch, Flynn also pointed out that "one of the things that have been supporting energy prices was the assumption that it was going to take an incredible amount of energy to power data centers and artificial intelligence." Now "the market is reacting to this story that perhaps China has found a way to drive artificial intelligence more cheaply and with less energy," he said. "If that's the case, it could be a game changer ... for a lot of commodities, energy included." In other energy dealings, natural-gas prices dropped over 8% Monday following some forecasts for a warming trend in the days ahead, Flynn said. The "potential for a warm-up will put the focus back on prolific U.S. oil and gas production," he said. "The weather's going to be the key for this market. If the weather trends colder, we could get back into another price spike," he said. "But we're getting late in the winter at this point. January, believe it or not, is almost over. Think about spring!"
Oil prices hover near two-week low, Libya supply disruption offers support - Oil prices edged higher but remained near a two-week low on Tuesday, as weak economic data from China and rising temperatures elsewhere dampened demand prospects. Supporting prices was a disruption of oil loading operations in Libya. Brent crude oil futures were up 55 cents, or 0.70%, to $77.63 per barrel at 1236 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.67%, to $73.66. Brent settled on Monday at its lowest since Jan. 9, while WTI hit its lowest since Jan. 2. In Libya, local protesters prevented crude oil loading on Tuesday at Es Sidra and Ras Lanuf ports, five engineers and a shipping source told Reuters, putting about 450,000 barrels per day of exports at risk. “If such disorder spreads, which is not unusual when Libya’s oil industry is held to ransom by one group or another, the current National Oil Corporation evaluated production of 1.4 mbpd will come under threat,” On the other hand, China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, reported on Monday an unexpected contraction in January manufacturing activity, adding to concerns over global crude demand growth. “The general tone of caution in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers that cast further doubt on China’s oil demand outlook, may serve as a drag on oil prices,” China’s crude oil demand is also expected to be hit by the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil trade. FGE analysts see refineries in Shandong losing up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supply in the near term amid a ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group on U.S.-sanctioned tankers. Several independent refineries in China have halted operations, or plan to do so, for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies plunge plants deeper into losses. In the U.S., weather forecasts are for warmer than normal temperatures through this week, which are also weighing on demand for heating fuels after extreme cold sparked a natural gas and diesel rally in prior sessions. Broader financial markets were under pressure from a surge of interest in a low-cost artificial intelligence model launched by Chinese firm DeepSeek. “Losses (in the oil market) appear relatively limited from the turmoil in U.S. tech stocks,” IG’s Yeap said. However, oil markets remain jittery, and there is some time to play out before there is clarity on the ramifications of U.S. policy involving tariffs and sanctions, said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum.
Oil Market Rebounds After Selloff Amid AI Disruption and Equity Volatility -- The oil market on Tuesday posted an inside trading day as the market bounced higher following a sharp selloff in tandem with the equities market on Monday that was triggered by news of increasing interest in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low cost artificial intelligence model. In overnight trading, the market continued to retrace the losses seen on Monday morning. It was supported by the news of protesters in Libya preventing crude oil loadings in the country’s Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports. The market traded to a high of $74.31 early in the session. However, the market erased some of its gains and posted a low of $72.93 after fears of a supply disruption eased on news that Libya’s export activity was operating normally after Libya’s National Oil Corp held talks with the protesters. The crude oil market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled up 60 cents at $73.77, while the March Brent contact settled up 41 cents at $77.49. Meanwhile, the product markets ended in mixed territory with the heating oil market settling down 99 points at $2.4501 and the RB market settling up 2.44 cents at $2.0526. The Saudi Press Agency reported that Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held talks with Iraq’s Hayan Abdel-Ghani and Libya’s Khalifa Abdulsadek in Riyadh on Monday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for lower oil prices and ahead of a meeting next week of OPEC+ countries. The Saudi minister and his Libyan counterpart discussed “strengthening joint efforts to support the stability of global energy markets” to serve their mutual interests. He also discussed cooperation to achieve mutual interests with his Iraqi counterpart and met with UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei for informal talks. Last week, U.S. President Trump called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices. OPEC+ has yet to respond, however five OPEC+ delegates said a meeting of the group’s top ministers on February 3rd is unlikely to adjust its current plan to start raising output from April. Bloomberg is reporting that oil loadings from the Libyan ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider on Tuesday were being disrupted as a result of political protests. The state oil company was estimating Libyan oil production prior to the shutdown had been averaging 1.41 million b/d. It was expected Tuesday’s shutdown could shut in some 430,000-460,000 b/d of crude oil production. The Oil Crescent Region Movement reportedly had ordered the shutdown in protest of the state-run National Oil Corp had not transferred the headquarters of five energy companies from western Libya to the eastern part of the country. Later, Libya’s National Oil Corp said operations at all oil terminals were continuing normally after communication with protestors who blocked crude oil loadings at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports. Citgo Petroleum Corp reported a unit upset at its 184,414 bpd Lemont, Illinois refinery. LyondellBasell Industries began shutting down its 263,776 bpd Houston refinery on Monday for permanent closure. The shutdown is expected to be completed by early February as the refinery has only a few days of supply of crude oil on hand. Lyondell said that it planned to begin the refinery’s “ramp down” in late January and the process would continue through February. Motive Enterprises reported maintenance activity resulting in flaring at its 626,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery.
Oil prices rebound from multi-week lows as investors brace for Trump tariffs (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up on Tuesday, bouncing back from multi-week lows, after the White House reaffirmed U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to issue tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports this week. Fears of weaker demand linked to soft economic data from China and rising temperatures elsewhere capped gains. Brent crude oil futures settled up 41 cents, or 0.53%, at $77.49 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 60 cents, or 0.82%, at $73.77. Brent settled on Monday at its lowest since Jan. 9, while WTI hit its lowest since Jan. 2. The White House said Trump still plans to issue 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday while weighing fresh tariffs on China. "Trump's comments on tariffs kept the market on edge," The tariffs could disrupt the flow of energy products across the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico. In Libya, local protesters prevented crude oil loadings on Tuesday at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports, putting about 450,000 barrels per day of exports at risk. However, fears of supply disruption eased after Libya's state-run National Oil Corp said export activity was running normally after it held talks with protesters. "The market priced in the risk of Libyan oil supply disruption before it became clear that flows for now are not disrupted, with the risk premium evaporating again," UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "There remains a risk of new disruptions down the road," he added. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, reported on Monday an unexpected contraction in January manufacturing activity, pressuring oil prices. "The general tone of caution in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers that cast further doubt on China's oil demand outlook, may serve as a drag on oil prices," IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong said. China's crude oil demand is also expected to be hit by the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil trade. FGE analysts see refineries in Shandong losing up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supply in the near term amid a ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group on U.S.-sanctioned tankers. Several independent refineries in China have halted operations, or plan to do so, for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies plunge plants deeper into losses. In the U.S., weather forecasts are for warmer-than-normal temperatures through this week, which are also weighing on demand for heating fuels after extreme cold sparked a natural gas and diesel rally in prior sessions. The latest weekly report on U.S. inventories, from the American Petroleum Institute industry group, showed crude stocks rose last week by 2.86 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday. Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirms the build. EIA data is due on Wednesday. Oil markets remain jittery, and it will be some time before there is clarity on the ramifications of U.S. policy involving tariffs and sanctions, said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum..
Oil prices continue to bleed amidst a confluence of negative factors -- Oil prices continue to decline for the second day in a row, falling by more than 0.5% across both Brent and WTI crudes, and are close to erasing all gains recorded in January. Oil’s losses come with a set of negative factors that are likely to exacerbate concerns about either oversupply or falling demand for crude, keeping prices under continued downward pressure. Today, we saw more bleak economic data from the Eurozone, where the region did not grow in the last quarter of last year compared to the third quarter, and its largest economies, Germany and France, contracted by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. All these readings were worse than expected. These figures come this week after the results of the GfK Consumer Climate survey in Germany, which also showed a decline in economic expectations and income expectations among individuals. These economic difficulties may be exacerbated by the return to the trade war with the imposition of tariffs by the United States, which may ultimately contribute to keeping the prospects for growth in demand for crude oil dim, keeping prices under pressure. The tariffs will also include Chinese exports to the United States, albeit to a lesser extent than Donald Trump previously threatened during his election campaign. However, I do not rule out increasing these tariffs if the upcoming negotiations between the two poles do not reach an agreement on trade terms. So far, we have witnessed a series of positive steps from United States and China that have eased concerns about tariffs. However, the shock caused by the Chinese artificial intelligence product DeepSeek may be an escalating factor in tensions between the two countries as it threatens US dominance in that field. This potential tension may not be evident yet after the DeepSeek shock, but what has already been evident in the oil market are concerns about re-accelerating the shift towards renewable energy sources to keep pace with the needs of the artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to The Wall Street Journal, the DeepSeek spike has caused a sharp decline in US oil and gas stocks this week. At the same time, Trump has shown no intention of following this approach, which is contrary to his approach of easing restrictions on the extraction and production of fossil fuels, which causes an oversupply and deepens the losses in crude prices. While the realization of either of the previous scenarios will serve the same result: more pressure on oil prices to decline. Returning to the economic side, the Federal Reserve maintained concerns about keeping interest rates high for a long time after its meeting yesterday, in which it decided not to change the current range, and its Chairman Jerome Powell stressed in the speech following the announcement the cautious tone towards future cuts. This led to no change in the current expectations about the not achieving a rate cut before next June, according to the data shown by the CME FedWatch Tool. Keeping interest rates high for a long time requires the continued flow of favorable data from the economy indicating the ability to adapt to tight monetary conditions, and the failure to achieve this may increase the obstacles to oil prices on the road to recovery.
WTI Holds Losses After Surprise Crude Build; US Production Tumbles Oil pries continues to churn sideways since tumbling in the big risk-off slump from DeepSeek on Monday as traders weigh the possible fallout from President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on major US crude supplier Canada and other countries and reports OPEC will evaluate potential changes to America’s energy policy. “Crude prices keep dancing to the rhythm of Trump’s tariff orchestra, with Canada tariffs in focus as they go into effect on Saturday,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. Wednesday’s price decline represents “a sour sentiment across an overall rangebound market,” he added. API
- Crude +2.68mm
- Cushing +144k
- Gasoline +1.89mm
- Distillates -3.75mm
DOE
- Crude +3.46mm
- Cushing +326k
- Gasoline +2.96mm
- Distillates -4.99mm - biggest draw since March 2022
After 9 straight weeks of draws, crude stocks built last week (by 3.5mm barrels). Gasoline stocks rose for the 11th straight week while Distillate stocks plunged by the most since March 2022...Graphs Source: Bloomberg. US crude production plunged last week, tumbling 237k barrels/day... Including the 248k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude stocks jumped by 3.71mm barrels - the biggest build since October 2024... WTI remains lower on the day after the DOE data...
Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies post first weekly rise in 10 weeks U.S. oil futures on Wednesday marked their lowest settlement price of the year so far after official data revealed a weekly rise in commercial crude inventories following nine consecutive weekly declines. Oil traders, meanwhile, continued to weigh the outlook for demand - and the possibility that President Donald Trump will implement tariffs as soon as this weekend on Canada and Mexico that may disrupt the flow of crude supplies.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery fell $1.15, or 1.6%, to settle at $72.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 31, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $76.58 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The more actively traded April contract declined by 88 cents, or nearly 1.2%, to $75.61 a barrel.
- -- February gasoline RBG25 settled 0.8% lower at $2.04 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG25 added 0.2% to $2.45 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 ended at $3.54 per million British thermal units, up 1.8% on the contract's expiration day. The March contract NGH25, which is now the front month, added 1.5% to settle at $3.17.
The oil market is "undoubtedly in a phase dominated by bearish demand concerns," said Steven Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. "The combination of unsettling economic data from China and a [Federal Reserve] that's hitting the pause button on rate changes casts a long shadow over risk sentiment." Still, sentiment in oil markets is "notoriously volatile. ... Despite the backdrop, there's been a rebound from weekly lows as risk sentiment stabilized," he told MarketWatch. "This is partly due to the moderated approach to tariffs that, while gradual, allows room for negotiations and concessions." Looking ahead, the economic landscape "presents a mixed bag," Innes said, implying an uncertain outlook for oil demand. Upcoming personal consumption expenditures data, due out Friday, might show a softening in the economy, potentially alleviating fears of an extended Fed pause on rate cuts, but an anticipated downward revision in headline employment numbers could dampen this somewhat positive outlook, he said. Oil prices continued their move lower after the Fed Wednesday left its benchmark rate unchanged, ending a run of three consecutive meetings with rate cuts. Meanwhile, Innes said he expects oil traders to increasingly focus more attention on the inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as these reports will be "crucial in assessing whether President Trump's nudging can successfully encourage U.S. producers to increase output." The EIA reported Wednesday that commercial crude inventories climbed by 3.5 million barrels for the week that ended Jan. 24. That was the first weekly increase in 10 weeks, though domestic production edged lower. The data were expected to show a crude supply climb of 2.6 million barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory gain of 2.9 million barrels, according to a source citing the data. Total domestic oil production fell by 237,000 barrels per day to 13.24 million bpd, the EIA said. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub added 300,000 barrels to 21 million barrels. The report also showed a weekly supply increase of 3 million barrels for gasoline, while distillate inventories fell by 5 million barrels. The survey forecast an inventory increase of 1.4 million barrels for gasoline and a supply decline of 2.4 million barrels for distillates. Demand for gasoline rose, with total finished motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.302 million barrels per day in the latest week, versus 8.086 million bpd from a week earlier.
Oil prices stable at 3wk lows; OPEC+ meeting ahead Oil prices were steady near three-week lows on Thursday as market participants kept a close eye on the potential impact of tariffs from United States President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the U.S.' largest crude oil suppliers. By 3:25 pm AEDT (4:25 am GMT) Brent crude futures were down $0.07 or 0.1% to US$76.51 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was flat at $72.63 per barrel. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday that Trump intends to impose tariffs on both countries by Saturday. Meanwhile, Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary, suggested on Wednesday that the tariffs could be avoided if Canada and Mexico take swift action to curb the flow of fentanyl, while also committing to slowing China's progress in artificial intelligence. On the demand side, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels last week, closely aligning with forecasts of a 3.2 million barrel increase. This was partly due to refinery disruptions caused by winter storms sweeping across the country. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating that any rate cuts would only be considered once inflation shows a renewed decline or if there are rising risks in the jobs market. Lower borrowing costs typically boost economic activity and oil demand. Investors are also eyeing the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 3 February, where the group of leading oil producers will discuss President Trump's push to increase U.S. oil production and potentially take a unified position on the matter. Trump has publicly urged OPEC, especially its dominant member Saudi Arabia, to lower oil prices, claiming it would help resolve the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. OPEC+ has already planned to gradually increase oil production starting in April, unwinding previous cuts that had been delayed due to weak demand. Meanwhile, Russia's crude oil exports from its western ports are expected to fall by 8% in February compared to January's plan, according to Reuters. This decline is attributed to increased domestic refining and the impact of recent U.S. sanctions on Russian crude exports.
US tariff threat limits oil prices (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Thursday, held in check by threatened U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports that could take effect this weekend. Brent crude futures settled 29 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $76.87 a barrel. U.S. crude futures finished at $72.73 a barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.2% higher than Wednesday, when they settled at their lowest level this year so far. "We're getting close to the deadline and people are getting nervous," U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff as early as Saturday on Canadian and Mexican exports to the United States if those two countries do not end shipments of fentanyl across U.S. borders. The White House on Tuesday reaffirmed Trump's plan to impose the tariffs, while on Wednesday, the president's nominee to run the Commerce Department said the two countries can avoid this if they act swiftly to close their borders to fentanyl. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, however, said traders had already priced in Trump's tariffs: "(this is) a major reason why crude oil is trading where it is." Winter storms hit U.S. demand last week, with crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. rising by 3.5 million barrels as refiners cut production. Analysts had expected a 3.2 million-barrel build, according to a Reuters poll. On the supply side, the latest U.S. sanctions on Moscow are squeezing crude oil exports from Russia's western ports, which are set to fall 8% in February from the January plan as Moscow boosts refining, according to traders and Reuters calculations. Investors are also looking ahead to a meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, scheduled for Feb. 3. The group is set to discuss Trump's efforts to raise U.S. oil production and take a joint stance on the matter, Kazakhstan said on Wednesday. Trump has called on OPEC and its leading member, Saudi Arabia, to lower oil prices, saying doing so would end the conflict in Ukraine. He has also set up an agenda of maximizing oil and gas output in the U.S., already the world's largest producer and at record highs. However, analysts believe a price war between the U.S. and OPEC+ is unlikely as it may hurt both. "A price war with the U.S. would involve OPEC+ producers maximising their output to undercut prices and drive shale production into decline," analysts at BMI, a Fitch Group division, said in a note.
The Oil Market Posted Modest Gains as Traders Considered Possible Tariffs - The oil market posted modest gains on Thursday as traders considered the possible tariffs threatened by the Trump administration against Mexico and Canada as well as the OPEC+ meeting next week. In overnight trading, the market continued to trend lower and posted a low of $72.02. However, the market bounced off that level and retraced some of its losses as the market turned its focus on the 25% tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump against Mexico and Canada possibly starting on February 1st. The market was also looking ahead to a meeting by OPEC scheduled for Monday, February 3rd. The group is set to discuss President Trump’s efforts to raise U.S. oil production and his call for OPEC to lower oil prices. The crude oil market rallied to a high of $73.55 by mid-morning. The market later traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The March WTI contract settled up 11 cents at $72.73 and the March Brent contract settled up 29 cents at $76.87. The product markets ended in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.14 cents at $2.4754 and the RB market settling up 17 points at $2.0374. According to Kpler data, European Union and UK diesel and gasoil imports are on track to reach a record low of 727,000 bpd this month, compared with 902,000 bpd in December. Meanwhile, European Union and UK gasoline exports are on track to reach 898,000 bpd in January, down from 934,000 bpd in December.Insights Global reported that gasoline stocks held in independent storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp terminal in the week ending January 30th increased by 2.65% on the week and by 71.62% on the year to 1.627 million tons, while its gasoil stocks fell by 1.22% on the week but increased by 24.11% on the year to 2.43 million tons and fuel oil stocks fell by 1.69% on the week and by 0.21% on the year to 13.94 million tons. Naphtha stocks increased by 7.68% on the week and by 61.51% on the year to 491,000 tons and jet fuel stocks fell by 1.49% on the week but increased by 12.32% on the year to 793,000 tons.Bloomberg reported that oil flows through Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga appeared to pause, supporting Ukraine’s claims of a successful drone strike on a pumping station. A source said the Ust-Luga flows fell to zero on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a Ukrainian security official said that the country’s drones had struck Russia’s Andreapol pumping station on the Baltic Pipeline System-2, which feeds Ust-Luga. U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but strong domestic demand will probably keep the Federal Reserve on a slow interest rate cut path this year. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said GDP increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after increasing at a 3.1% pace in the third quarter. Economists had forecast GDP rising at a 2.6% pace. It reported that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, grew at a 4.2% rate in the fourth quarter after increasing at a 3.7% pace in the third quarter.
Oil prices lift as traders brace for tariff decision -Oil prices traded higher on Friday as traders assessed the potential impact of tariffs that United States President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on Canadian and Mexican exports. The proposed 25% levy, which could take effect as early as Saturday, has injected uncertainty into the energy markets.By 3:30 pm AEDT (4:30 am GMT) Brent crude futures for March rose $0.63 or 0.8% to US$77.50 a barrel, while the more actively traded April contract climbed $0.50 or 0.7% to $76.23 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April gained $0.69 or 1% to $73.42 per barrel.Despite Friday's gains, Brent is on track for a 1.6% decline this week, while WTI is down 2%. However, both benchmarks are set for monthly gains, with Brent up 3.6% - its best performance since June - and WTI rising 2% in January.Trump has warned that unless Canada and Mexico curb fentanyl shipments into the U.S., he will move forward with a 25% tariff on their exports. It remains uncertain whether crude oil will be included in the restrictions. On Thursday, the President stated that he would soon decide on whether to exempt Canadian and Mexican oil imports from the measure.In 2023, Canada and Mexico supplied more than 71% of U.S. crude oil imports, accounting for the majority of the 6.5 million bpd total imports according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service.
Oil prices post weekly drop as outline of Trump's tariff plans emerges - Oil futures ended lower Friday, contributing to a loss for the week, though prices held on to a gain for the month as traders awaited a tariff decision by President Donald Trump on crude imports from Canada and Mexico.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $72.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for a weekly fall of nearly 2.9%. Prices based on the front-month contract climbed 1.1% for January, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 11 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $76.76 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a weekly decline of 2.2%. It finished 2.8% higher for the month. April Brent , which become the front month at the end of the session, declined by 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $75.67 a barrel.
- -- February gasoline edged down by less than 0.1% to $2.04 a gallon, tacking on almost 1.8% for the month, while February heating oil HOG25 added 0.4% to $2.48 a gallon, settling 7.1% higher for the month. The February contracts expired at the end of the session.
- -- Natural gas for March delivery NGH25 ended at $3.04 per million British thermal units, down 0.1% for the session, with front-month contract prices losing 16.2% in January.
"There is still significant uncertainty around whether President Trump will include oil in the tariff package, specifically on Canada," Alex Hodes, director of energy-market strategy at StoneX, wrote in Friday's newsletter. Canada has reportedly threatened that if the tariffs are applied, they will "stop shipments altogether to the U.S. and not pay the tariff," he said. "Both economies will be impacted majorly by the move, so negotiations on a deal will likely be urgent." On Thursday, Trump reiterated a threat to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday. He said a decision on whether to include oil imports would be made Thursday night, but no announcement has so far been made. When asked about an exemption for oil imports, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday that she didn't have an update or readout on exemptions, but details would be available for public consumption Saturday. The U.S. imported 4.42 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in 2023, representing 52% of total U.S. oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration. Mexico comes in at a distant second, representing 11% of U.S. oil imports at 910,000 barrels per day. Still, Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners, told MarketWatch Friday that if tariffs are applied on Canada, "exporter margins will shrink, but we see no change in their volumes." He continued: "Canadian tariffs should be a net positive for [the] U.S. Treasury and a neutral for oil markets." In addition to punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Trump has threatened a raft of other levies on trading partners, including a universal tariff. Read: Here's how much gas could cost you if Trump's threatened tariffs go through In the U.S., Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) reported Friday that the number of active domestic rigs drilling for oil climbed by seven to total 479 rigs this week. Producers are looking to a "more friendly environment" for crude output under Trump, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, plan to hold a committee meeting online on Monday. Most analysts seem to believe that OPEC+ will recommend simply rolling existing production cuts, with the "producer group likely to eventually cancel the scheduled April start to adding 138,000 [barrels per day] of oil per month through September of 2026 for a total of 2.2 million bpd," wrote Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, in a note Friday. "I tend to think OPEC+ will add language to any statement that will allow them to save face versus President Trump's call for OPEC to lower prices," he said. Perhaps the members will "confirm the April barrels and give the impression they will not cancel" the production increase for the fourth time.
Oil ticks up after hours on possibility of lower US tariff on Canadian oil (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in aftermarket trading on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects his administration to decrease proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10%, and to impose duties on oil and gas around Feb. 18, later than initially feared.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 73 cents, or 1%, to $73.48 a barrel after closing down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $72.53.Brent crude futures for April rose 54 cents, or 0.7%, to $76.54 a barrel in extended trading after settling 22 cents lower on Friday. The March contract, which expired on Friday, had settled down 11 cents at $76.76 a barrel.For the week, the Brent and WTI benchmarks had settled 2.1% and 2.9% lower, respectively, and marked the second straight week of losses as the markets expect the proposed tariffs would drive up fuel prices for Americans and hit global economic growth and demand for energy."We're going to put tariffs on oil and gas," Trump told reporters in the White House's Oval Office. "That'll happen fairly soon, I think around the 18th of February."Asked if tomorrow's tariffs would be inclusive of Canadian crude, Trump said: "I'm probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that. We think we're going to bring it down to 10% for the oil."Trump had previously threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican exports to the United States on Feb. 1 and had not clarified if oil and gas would be exempt."It's uncertainty that is starting to push prices up," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.The Trump administration is doubling down and there is more potential for retaliatory measures from Canada and/or Mexico, and also the potential for escalation of these tariffs, he added.Canada and Mexico are the two largest crude oil exporters to the United States. Canadian crude in particular is used by many U.S. Midwest refineries and a curtailed flow will likely push up fuel prices, analysts have said.Tariffs would likely result in large U.S. refinery run cuts, said Energy Aspects analyst Livia Gallarati."Our base case has been that, if tariffs are announced, they will include a grace period for negotiations and that oil is likely eventually to be carved out from any tariffs," Gallarati added.Canada will respond immediately and forcefully if the United States imposes tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, warning Canadians that they could be facing tough times.The market is also awaiting an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Monday.OPEC+ is unlikely to alter plans to raise output gradually when it meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group told Reuters, despite Trump urging OPEC and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, to lower prices.Meanwhile, the U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, rose by seven to 479 this week.Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Jan. 28, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Israel Says It Will Occupy Southern Syria 'Indefinitely' - Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that Israel will “indefinitely” occupy areas of southern Syria it captured after the the regime change in Damascus that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Katz made the comments while visiting Israeli troops on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, which is located on the Syria-Lebanon border. “The IDF will remain at the summit of the Hermon and the security zone indefinitely to ensure the security of the communities of the Golan Heights and the north and all the residents of Israel,” he said. Israel has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967 and annexed the Syrian territory in 1981, a move not recognized by any country until the first Trump administration did so in 2019. Israel began its latest land grab in Syria by capturing a buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria that was patrolled by UN peacekeepers. The invading Israeli forces have also captured several towns and villages in Syria’s Quneitra Governorate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated and took credit for the overthrow of Assad since he was an ally of Iran and Hezbollah. But Israel has also used the takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, to invade and capture the land in the south. Israel also launched massive airstrikes in Syria to destroy military equipment.“We will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria… we will act against any threat,” Katz said atop Mount Hermon. “We will not be dependent on others for our security.”
Hundreds of Thousands of Palestinians Begin Returning to North Gaza - Palestinians who were displaced from northern Gaza in the early days of Israel’s genocidal war on the Strip began returning to the ruins of their homes on Monday as part of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Despite the massive destruction in northern Gaza, the Health Ministry estimates around 650,000 Palestinians will return. Later in the day,Gaza’s Media Office said 300,000 Palestinians had returned on Monday.The Israeli military first ordered the evacuation of north Gaza in October 2023, when it was estimated that the area was home to about 1.1 million people. Most Palestinians forced from the north had been displaced multiple times over the past 15 months and had been living in tent camps in southern and central Gaza. Many returning to the north will go on living in tents near the rubble of their homes. “We have spent around one year and three months resilient in the Gaza Strip, we did not need anything from the world, we only had God with us,” Fadi, a north Gaza resident who returned to find his home in ruins, told Middle East Eye. Some Palestinians said the return to the north was a message to President Trump, who recently suggested the idea of “cleaning out” Gaza of its Palestinian residents and sending them to Egypt and Jordan, an idea strongly rejected by the neighboring Arab states. “Proposals like Trump’s ignore the deep ties and sacrifices that bind people to their homes,” Rashid Khalidi, a Gaza resident, told The New Arab. “These are not just houses. They are symbols of identity and resistance.”Palestinians were able to return to the north as part of a deal that wasbrokered by Qatar that will see the release of an Israeli female civilian hostage and two other captives on Thursday. Hamas said the return to the north was a “victory” for Palestinians and a “setback” for Israel. Starting in October 2024 and in the months leading up to the ceasefire, the Israeli military had significantly escalated in the northern Gaza cities of Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia. Palestinian civilians were ordered to leave under the threat of death, whether by military action or starvation. IDF soldiers also demolished nearly every building in the cities, so Palestinians had nowhere to return. Many Israeli officials and settlers hoped the campaign in north Gaza would lead to ethnic cleansing and the establishment of Jewish settlements, and the return of Palestinians marks a major blow to their plans.Giora Eiland, a retired IDF general who devised the ethnic cleansing plan for north Gaza, which became known as the “general’s plan,” said allowing Palestinians to return to the territory was a failure of Israel’s war goals. He said Israel was now at the “mercy of Hamas.”
Israeli Forces Have Killed More Than 80 Palestinians in Gaza Since Ceasefire Went Into Effect - Since the Gaza ceasefire went into effect on January 19, Israeli forces have killed more than 80 Palestinians across the Strip, Drop Site News reported on Wednesday.Dr. Zaher al-Wahaidi, director of information for Gaza’s Health Ministry, told Drop Site that 49 of the dead were killed by Israeli troops in the southern city of Rafah, where many bodies remain buried under the rubble.Al-Wahaidi also said that since January 19, 470 bodies have been recovered from the rubble, including 150 in Rafah. “We need caterpillars and bulldozers to clear up the wreckage and recover these corpses. People are getting back to literally nothing. Rafah is destroyed, and the killing and bombing continue there,” he said.The Health Ministry said Wednesday in its daily update that Gaza hospitals received another 63 bodies over the previous 24-hour period. Fifty-nine of the bodies were recovered from the rubble, two Palestinians died of previously sustained wounds, and two were killed by Israeli forces in the past day.In several instances, the Israeli military has claimed it opened fire on Palestinians who posed a “threat” to Israeli troops on the ground. But the IDF also shot and killed an unarmed Israeli contractor who was dressed in civilian clothes simply because he was walking toward Israeli troops, demonstrating the free rein Israeli soldiers have to fire on civilians.
Ukrainian Military Intel Chief Warns of Threat to Ukraine's Existence if Negotiations With Russia Don't Start - Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has warned that if negotiations to end the war with Russia don’t begin by this summer, Ukraine’s “very existence” will be threatened.According to a report from Ukrainska Pravda, Budanov issued the warning during a closed-door meeting of Ukraine’s parliament.A source who attended the meeting told the media outlet that Budanov was asked how much time Ukraine has, and he replied, “If there are no serious negotiations by the summer, dangerous processes could unfold, threatening Ukraine’s very existence.”Describing the response to Budanov’s comments, the source said, “Everyone exchanged uneasy glances and fell silent. It seems like everything depends on things going right.”Budanov’s comments come as the new Trump administration has declared that its official policy is to seek the end of the war in Ukraine. But so far, there’s been no sign that negotiations have started.In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been floating ideas for a potential peace deal that would be non-starters for talks with Moscow, including a proposal for 200,000 Western troops to be deployed to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.Budanov’s comments reinforce the fact that time is on Russia’s side, meaning Moscow is unlikely to agree to any deals that don’t include itscore demands: Ukrainian neutrality and continued Russian control of the territories it has captured in Ukraine.
Putin Says He’s Ready to Discuss Oil, Energy Issues With Trump-- Russian President Vladimir Putin said he’s ready to discuss crude oil prices and other energy issues at a face-to-face meeting with US leader Donald Trump. Both Russia and the US are top global oil producers and consumers, Putin said in an interview with state-owned Rossiya 24 TV. Price movements in the commodity impacts both economies, he said. “We have a lot to discuss here, and there are other energy issues that might be mutually interesting,” Putin said. “I doubt that Mr. Trump — even if we are hearing about the possibility of additional sanction on Russia — would make decisions that could hurt the US economy.” Putin’s comments follow Trump’s Thursday address to world leaders in Davos, when he urged Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to “bring down the cost of oil.” “If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately,” Trump added. Earlier this week, Trump also stepped up pressure on Russia to make a peace deal with Ukraine “soon,” or else he would “have no other choice” but to impose additional taxes, tariffs and sanctions on Russian imports to the US, along with “other participating countries.” Earlier this month, the US imposed its harshest sanctions so far on Russia’s energy industry, the key source of the Kremlin’s revenue that funds the war in Ukraine. The restrictions could disrupt Russia’s exports of petroleum and reduce the global supply surplus.
Flirting With WW3: Russia Says Nuclear Plant Targeted In Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack - On Wednesday Russian officials have alleged that a new massive Ukraine drone attack included an effort to target a nuclear power plant. At least 100 drones were sent from Ukraine overnight against various oil and power facilities in one of the single biggest UAV barrages of the war.RIA news agency reported that the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant came under attack. It is the largest power generating plant in Russia's northwest region. State media reports indicate the plant is operating normally in the wake of the assault. "Air defense systems destroyed a drone attempting to strike a nuclear power facility in the western region of Smolensk bordering Belarus, Governor Vasily Anokhin said on the Telegram messaging app," France24 details.Authorities say that among the some 104 total drones which attacked Russia, at least 11 inbound UAVs were destroyed over the Smolensk region, the western part of which borders Belarus.Officials say that at least one of these drones was destroyed by air defense systems as it tried to strike the Smolensk nuclear power complex. "According to preliminary information, one of the drones was shot down during an attempt to attack a nuclear power facility," Governor Vasily Anokhin said on Telegram. "There were no casualties or damage."Still, if accurate the Ukrainians are really playing with fire here - the kind of fire which could trigger WW3 and far crosses all of Vladimir Putin's red lines.Since the war's start, most international concern for potential nuclear disaster has centered on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant, as it's basically been in a frontline area of the battle in Ukraine's east. At various points, the Russian forces who hold and oversee it have accused Ukraine of mounting attacks on the site. Each side has in the past accused the other of plotting false flag incidents at the facility, but lately the situation has become relatively stable.
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