US commercial crude supplies rose by the most in 51 weeks; gasoline inventories rose to a 53 week high; distillates demand at a 3 year high led to largest draw from distillates inventories in 47 months
US oil prices fell for a third consecutive week, after reaching a six month high four weeks ago, after the Trump administration paused their tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the EIA reported that US oil inventories jumped by the most in almost a year….after falling 2.9% to $72.53 a barrel last week on the first increase in US crude inventories in 10 weeks, and on uncertainty as to the impact of Trump’s looming tariffs, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery rose sharply in overseas trading on Monday, after Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising fears of disruptions in crude from the US’s largest oil suppliers, and opened above $75 in New York, but then breached its support and erased most of its gains as it slid to a low of $72.05 after the Trump administration said the U.S. would pause tariffs planned for Mexico for a month, but recovered to settle 63 cents higher at $73.16 a barrel after tariffs of 10% on energy products from Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China remained in place….oil prices fell more than $2 in overseas trading on Tuesday, after U.S. tariffs on China took effect and Beijing retaliated with its own measures, heightening trade war fears, but then retraced more than half of its drop from Monday’s high on news that Trump planned to restore his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including sanctions and enforcement of existing sanctions, and settled 46 cents lower at $72.70 a barrel amid the tariff drama between Washington and Beijing after Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran…oil prices traded slightly lower during Asian trade on Wednesday as traders monitored the impact of China’s tariffs on US energy imports, even as renewed pressure from Trump on Iranian crude exports offered some support, then extended their losses after the EIA reported the largest US crude inventory build in nearly a year, and settled $1.67 lower at $71.03 a barrel as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies signaled weaker demand, while worries about a new China-U.S. trade war fueled fears of softer economic growth.…oil prices moved higher in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply increased crude prices for March shipments, then traded higher in New York after the news that the Treasury Department had imposed sanctions targeting shadow networks responsible for moving Iranian oil to China, but faded into the close to settle 42 cents lower at $70.61 a barrel after Trump repeated a pledge to boost U.S. oil production in order to lower prices….Oil prices rose marginally in Asian trade on Friday as traders reacted to news of U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports to China, then added to the gains on Friday morning in New York amid some optimism about the outcome of the trade tariff war between the U.S. and China, then drifted to settle 39 cents higher at $71.00 a barrel, supported by the new sanctions on Iran's crude exports, but still finished 2.1% lower for the week…
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks on a bullish shift in February temperature forecasts and on a price reset following the 25% drop last week due a switch to quoting the cheaper March contract….after falling 11.8% to $3.044 per mmBTU last week on a shift in the February forecasts to milder temperatures, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for March delivery opened 26 cents higher Monday morning, gapping higher over the weekend to reprice the recently discounted front-month contract that had drifted into oversold territory, and edged gradually higher throughout the session to settle 30.8 cents higher at $3.352 per MBTU, as hefty tariffs on Canadian imports and signs of more winter weather ahead overshadowed robust domestic production….however, natural gas prices opened 17.7 cents lower on Tuesday, as a bearish shift to forecasts and ongoing tariff battles stymied the previous day’s momentum, but clawed its way higher through midday to settle 9.9 cents lower at $3.253 per MBTU on lower flows to LNG plants and a delayed imposition of tariffs…natural gas prices opened 4.9 cents lower on Wednesday, but reclaimed those overnight losses by 10 AM due to a bullish shift in February forecasts and the ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs, and continued to rally to close 10.7 cents higher at $3.360 per mmBTU, as signs of strengthening demand and declining storage levels overshadowed stout production….natural gas prices traded up to 6 cents lower ahead of the storage report early Thursday, then ticked gradually higher through midday as the publication fell in line with expectations, and settled 4.8 cents higher at $3.408 per mmBTU on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw, on rising flows to LNG export plants, and on forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks than had been expected…natural gas prices moved sideways Friday morning, as abundant production offset a looming cold front and strong LNG export demand, then slipped lower late in the session as traders weighed robust production against steady export demand and forecasts for colder mid-February domestic conditions, and settled down 9.9 cents at $3.309 per mmBTU on rising output and forecasts for lower demand next week than was previously expected, but still finished 8.7% higher for the week..
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 31st indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 174 billion cubic feet to 2,397 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 208 billion cubic feet, or 8.0% below the 2,605 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 31st of last year, and 111 billion cubic feet, or 4.4% less than the five-year average of 2,508 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 31st of January over the most recent five years….the 174 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was slightly higher than than the 168 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and was quite a bit more than the 110 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, but it exactly matched the average 174 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same end of January week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 31st indicated that after a decrease in demand for crude that the EIA could not account for and increases in our oil imports and production, we were left with surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for second time in eleven weeks, and for tenth time in thirty-one weeks, and by the most since February of last year...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 467,000 barrels per day to average 6,448,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 532,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 645,000 barrels per day to average 4,331,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,584,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 31st, an average of 178,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 613,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 238,000 barrels per day higher at 13,478,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,675,000 barrels per day during the January 31st reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,349,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 31st, an average of 159,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 1,273,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending January 31st averaged a rounded 52,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -52,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….However, since 907,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 854,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are nonsense….But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded net 1,273,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 1,238,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 36,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixtieth SPR increase in the past sixty-seven weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,558,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.8% more than the 6,378,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 238,000 barrels per day higher at 13,478,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 233,000 barrels per day higher at 12,810,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 436,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.9% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 84.5% of their capacity while processing those 15,349,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 31st, up from their 83.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still down from 91.7% utilization rate of three weeks earlier, reflecting the impact of the recent below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries….the 15,349,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 3.4% more than the 14,840,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the equally cold week ending February 2nd of 2024, but 3.9% less than the 15,972,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 31st, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.4%, also quite low, even for this time of year…
Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was a bit lower, decreasing by 27,000 barrels per day to 9,166,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 31st, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 44,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 1.7% more than the 9,011,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending February 2nd of last year, but was 7.4% less than the gasoline production of 9,903,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending January 31st, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 186,000 barrels per day to 4,552,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 28,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production decrease, our distillates output was 4.5% more than the 4,357,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending February 2nd of 2024, but 8.5% less than the 4,976,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 31st, 2020…
In spite of this week’s modest decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the twelfth consecutive week, increasing by 2,233,000 barrels to a 53 week high of 251,088,000 barrels during the week ending January 31st, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,957,000 barrels to a 51 week high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose again this week as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 26,000 barrels per day to 8,328,000 barrels per day, and as our exports of gasoline rose by 98,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day and while our imports of gasoline fell by 41,000 barrels per day to 593,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were fractionally higher than last February 2nd’s gasoline inventories of 250,988,000 barrels, and were slightly above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Meanwhile, with this week’s sharp decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the thirteenth time in twenty weeks, decreasing by 5,471,000 barrels to 118,480,000 barrels during the week ending January 31st, the largest draw from supplies since since March 5th, 2021, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 4,994,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 93,000 to a 3 year high of 4,599,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of distillates fell by 234,000 barrels per day to 893,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 23,000 barrels per day to 159,000 barrels per day...After 32 inventory withdrawals over the past 55 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 7.1% below the 127,574,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on February 2nd of 2024, and about 12% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the increase in our oil imports and the decrease in demand for crude that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, increasing by 8,664,000 barrels over the week, or by the most in 51 weeks, from 415,126,000 barrels on January 24th to 423,790,000 barrels on January 31st, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,463,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after this week’s big increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were almost 32% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the end of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this January 31st were 0.9% less than the 427,432,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on February 2nd of 2024, and 6.9% less than the 455,111,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on February 3rd of 2023, but were 3.3% more than the 410,387,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on February 4th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count rose for a second week after falling to a three year low two weeks ago, on a the addition of 12 horizontal rigs since that time...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 7th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 31st) and this week’s (February 7th) count, the third column shows last week’s January 31st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 9th of February, 2024…
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ODNR Uses Drones to Sniff Out Orphaned Oil & Gas Wells in Ohio - Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management, is about to fly drones equipped with magnetometers to sniff out orphaned oil and gas wells in Van Wert County. The ODNR previously completed drone flights in Auglaize, Hancock, Mercer, and Wood counties. The ODNR issued a press release to inform (warn) about the upcoming flights, no doubt to prevent the mass hysteria we’ve seen in recent months about drone flights along the Eastern seaboard.
Exclusive: Encino's owner mulls $7 billion sale, IPO of energy producer, sources say (Reuters) - Canadian pension fund CPP Investments is weighing strategic options, including a sale or initial public offering, for Encino Acquisition Partners that could value the U.S. oil and natural gas producer at as much as $7 billion, including debt, people familiar with the matter said. The deliberations come as the energy industry is anticipating tailwinds from the administration of President Donald Trump, which has put forward an economic agenda tailored to boost fossil-fuel production, as it speeds up permits for energy projects and rolls back environmental protections. Moreover, the booming demand for artificial intelligence and data centers is expected to drive a jump in U.S. power demand, which in turn is likely to boost the need for natural gas to fuel power generation. Houston, Texas-based Encino, which is majority-owned by CPP, is in the early stages of evaluating options and is working on selecting investment banks to lead the review process, the sources said, requesting anonymity as the matter is confidential. A deal is expected to happen later this year, the sources said, cautioning that Encino's plans are subject to market conditions. Encino and CPP declined to comment. Encino operates in the Utica shale basin of Ohio and is one of the largest privately owned oil and gas exploration and production companies in the United States. It was formed in 2017 as a partnership to buy and develop U.S. oil and gas assets. Under the terms of the agreement, CPP Investments invested $1 billion in the venture, while oil and gas producer Encino Energy agreed to operate the acquired assets. A year later, Encino Acquisition Partners bought Chesapeake Energy's Ohio assets for $2 billion. CPP Investments said in April 2024 it would invest another $300 million in the business to help accelerate the development of the company's assets. In January, Infinity Natural Resources raised $265 million from its IPO and the company's shares jumped on their debut in New York. The positive market reaction to the natural gas producer's stock market launch helped accelerate Encino's decision to explore its options, one of the sources said.
Shocker: Encino Energy Considers Sale or Possible IPO for $7B | Marcellus Drilling News -- We suppose we shouldn't be shocked, but we are. Reuters is exclusively reporting that Canadian pension fund CPP Investments, the majority owner of Encino Acquisition Partners (aka Encino Energy), is considering either a sale of the company or possibly an initial public offering (IPO) that values the company at roughly $7 billion. Encino's claim to fame is that after taking over Chesapeake Energy's Ohio Utica assets in 2018, it cracked the code on how to coax crude oil (condensate) out of the low-pressure Utica shale (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). The company quickly became the #1 producer of crude oil in the Utica (see Encino’s “Four Pillars” Transformed Co. into M-U’s Top Oil Producer).
22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 27 – Feb 2 -Marcellus Drilling News- For the week of Jan 27 – Feb 2, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells recovered from the previous week. Two weeks ago, only 7 new permits were issued. Last week, the number increased to 22 new permits issued. Whereas the Keystone State (PA) issued no new permits two weeks ago, PA issued 13 new permits last week. Six of those permits went to Apex Energy in Westmoreland County. Five permits were issued to EQT (Rice Drilling) in Greene and Lycoming counties. And two permits went to Expand Energy (Chesapeake) in Bradford County ANTERO RESOURCES | APEX ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | RITCHIE COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
Why New York and Others Must Embrace Natural Gas -It’s not just Republicans saying the Democrats are in disarray. Even Democrats are admitting the quiet part out loud.Take New York Congressman Pat Ryan, the moderate from Hudson Valley, who declared that “Democrats got our butts kicked in November… We became the party of the elites, and folks felt that.”Yet, rather than turn the page, New York’s Governor is doubling down on the old.Kathy Hochul’s latest $252 billion budget is more than 8% higher than last year’s. The additional revenue is, of course, more taxes. New Yorkers will pay a new$75billion tax on oil and gas disguised as some climate change justice. New Yorkersnow pay $9 for the privilege of sitting in traffic, courtesy of the nation’s first “congestion fee.”Luckily for Governor Hochul, there is a proven winner hiding in plain sight: natural gas. Natural gas is so popular that it was embraced by Vice President Kamala Harris, as it was by Barack Obama before her. During last year’s campaign, Harris even made clear her support for fracking, opposing any sort of national ban favored by the likes of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.Surely, Governor Hochul aligns with the former Vice President? During campaign rallies the Governor repeated the line “New York is Kamala Harris country” adding “Kamala President Harris fights for freedom.” It’s exactly that sort of economic freedom New York currently needs and desperately. The potential for New York is untold. An enormous portion of the Marcellus Shale Formation runs under the state with an estimated 9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. A few thousand feet below that lies the Utica Shale Formation, with an additional 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1 billion barrels of oil. So important are these resources that neighbor Pennsylvania not only supports fracking, but their Democratic Governor (once on Harris’ short list for Vice President) Josh Shapiro embraces it. So does U.S. Senator John Fetterman. The highest-ranking Democrat too slow and too milquetoast in defending Pennsylvania’s energy industry was former Senator Bob Casey. “Former” being the operative word. After 18 years in the Senate, Casey lost his seat to pro-energy outsider Dave McCormick, who featured the issue prominently in his campaign. In Pennsylvania, it’s politically dangerous to oppose energy. It is clear why: the industry supports hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs and generates nearly $40 billion in economic activity. Rural, working-class Americans are thriving in Pennsylvania because of the energy industry, and as Bob Casey found out the hard way, they vote. New York is the fourth largest natural gas consumer, and yet despite its tremendous reserves, it imports natural gas. As Governor Hochul, and previously Governor Andrew Cuomo, embrace green policies, New York’s electricity priceshave climbed year over year to among the highest in the nation. New York also has an unemployment rate of 4.4%, 35th worst in the nation. Embracing natural gas fixes so many of New York’s problems. It brings increased revenue, jobs, and affordable energy. It promotes development in rural communities. It allows elected leaders to start “meeting people where they are,” as Rep. Ryan put it. If Governor Hochul is wedded to the Democrats of old, fear-mongering climate hysteria, denigration of fossil fuels, and an illogical support for failed green policies, Pat Ryan, Josh Shapiro and others need to push them out of the party and out of office.Energy is everything, and New York has incredible untaped energy potential. With real leadership, the Empire State can become an energy empire, but only if the left retires their visionless and weak politicians and return to their roots of working for the people.
NFE Plans Onshore Construction of Second Mexico LNG Export Facility This Year --New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) aims to start construction on a second phase of its Fast LNG export project in Mexico this year, adding to a growing wave of U.S. feed gas demand from Mexico. Image of Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) North American Pipelines and LNG map showcasing a section of the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline in Mexico. In an investor presentation published at the end of last month, NFE disclosed construction and conversion of onshore facilities at the onshore Altamira import facility on Mexico’s Atlantic coast could begin by 3Q2025. Modular liquefaction equipment, the same used in the first Fast LNG unit offshore, are currently under construction at the Kiewit Corp. shipyard in Ingleside, TX. Commissioning and start-up of FLNG 2 is expected within the first six months of 2027, according to NFE. Once operational, the facility would add 1.4 million tons/year (Mt/y) of export capacity to NFE’s Mexico operations, totaling 2.8 Mt/y.
Trump Administration Returns to ‘Regular Order’ on LNG Exports, Revokes ‘Wrongful Withdrawal’ of Offshore Drilling -- The Trump administration’s Interior and Energy Department chiefs took steps this week to remove obstacles to expand natural gas and oil drilling by pulling the plug on Biden administration orders and pledging to approve permits for long-delayed energy infrastructure. Interior Department Secretary Doug Burgum signed six secretarial orders on Monday that included removing the block on future natural gas and oil drilling off the East Coast, eastern Gulf of Mexico, Pacific Coast and a portion of Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea. And Energy Department (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright, former Liberty Energy Inc. CEO, laid out his priorities on Wednesday, which include clearing obstacles to permitting natural gas and oil infrastructure.
Energy Industry Wants DOE to Eliminate Seven-Year Export Deadline — The U.S. LNG industry is urging the Trump administration to rescind a policy statement issued under former President Biden that requires all projects to start exporting the super-chilled fuel within seven years of receiving export authorization from the Department of Energy (DOE). Chart showing annual U.S. LNG cargoes sent to China over the last few years. DOE said in 2023 that it would not extend its authorizations unless a project had already started construction or could demonstrate that “extenuating circumstances” have delayed it. “Several projects that are approaching the seven-year deadline are unlikely to meet this inflexible/unworkable policy and will need more time for completion,” said LNG Allies CEO Fred Hutchison. “Without a policy change, construction schedules cannot be finalized, and projects may be in jeopardy.”
Natural Gas Market Bracing for U.S. Trade War, but Nymex Impacts ‘Minimal’ So Far -- Natural gas markets showed signs of nerves Monday as news of U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico made headlines. None Over the weekend, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, and all imports from Canada barring energy, which would be faced with a 10% levy. The tariffs were meant to take effect on Tuesday. Trump said the tariffs were related to undocumented migrants and illegal drugs that came into the country from Canada and Mexico.
US natural gas prices jump on colder forecast, sanctions worries - US natural gas futures jumped about 9% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week and worries about supplies from Canada related to US President Donald Trump’s sanctions. In 2024, about 9%, or roughly 8.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of the gas consumed in the US came from Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That compares with average US imports from Canada of around 7.6 bcfd during the prior five years (2019-2023). Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 26.8 cents, or 8.8%, to $3.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 6:34 a.m. EST (1134 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Dec. 4 for a second day in a row. That futures price jump pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.5 in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Jan. 21. All of the curtailed output was back in service by Jan. 28.
US natgas prices fall 5% on lower LNG feedgas, tariff delays -- U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Tuesday as less gas flowed to the nation’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and after President Donald Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada. That tariff suspension reduced futures prices because roughly 9% of the gas consumed in the United States comes from Canada, and higher tariffs would have boosted the cost of that fuel. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to $3.177 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:05 a.m. EST (1305 GMT). In the spot market, uncertainty about the tariffs on Monday boosted gas prices at the AECO hub in Alberta by over 70% to $3.68 per mmBtu, their highest since January 2024. That Canadian gas spike sent next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub in Oregon soaring by more than 124% to a near five-month high of around $235 per megawatt hour. The Pacific Northwest is heavily dependent on gas supplies from Canada. About two-thirds of the gas used in Oregon comes from Canada, according to state data and local media reports. In 2024, gas-fired plants generated about 38% of the power in Oregon. Most of the rest – about 41% – came from hydropower dams, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The United States consumed a record 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas in 2024. About 8.4 bcfd, or roughly 9%, of that fuel came from Canada, according to the EIA. That compares with U.S. imports from Canada of around 8.0 bcfd in 2023 and an average of 7.5 bcfd during the prior five years (2018-2022). Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall by around 1.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 105.1 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a daily record high of 106.6 bcfd on Jan. 31. The prior all-time high was 106.4 bcfd in January 2024. After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from warmer than normal through Feb. 8 to mostly colder than normal from Feb. 9-19. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 123.8 bcfd this week to 132.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to 14.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a reduction in flows to Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana. Flows to Sabine were on track to drop to a 13-week low of 4.1 bcfd on Tuesday, down from 4.6 bcfd on Monday and an average of 4.9 bcfd over the prior seven days.
US natgas prices edge up to one-week high on rising LNG flows, colder weather — U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1% to a one-week high on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw last week, rising flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures NG1! for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.408 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 29 for a second day in a row. The price increase came despite an increase in output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 174 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 31. That was slightly higher than the 168-bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 110 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 174 bcf for this time of year. After extreme cold late last month boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through February 21 except for some colder-than-normal days from February 10-14. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.1 bcfd this week to 135.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.9 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading near a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe. In Asia, meanwhile, gas was trading around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark.
US natgas prices slide 3% on rising output, lower demand forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Friday on rising output and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came despite rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.9 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.309 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since January 29 for a second day in a row. For the week, the front-month was up about 9% after dropping about 24% last week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by 1.1 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 105.4 bcfd on Friday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on January 31. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.3 bcfd this week to 133.4 bcfd next week and 133.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas was trading at a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
Demand Strong for Natural Gas Equipment Beyond LNG, with Power Market Gaining, Says Baker Hughes CEO --Natural gas and LNG consumption continues to accelerate globally, in parallel with increasingly positive trends for power demand, according to Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli. Bar chart showing Baker Hughes Co.'s primary energy demand outlook through 2040. The Houston-based global oilfield services giant provides an array of products that serve natural gas, oil and power markets. Simonelli shared his view of 2025 last Friday during a quarterly conference call. “The global economy will be navigating a number of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which could result in another year of uneven global economic growth,” he said of 2025. “Against this economic backdrop, we have seen increasingly positive trends for power consumption.
LNG Freight Rates at Historic Lows as Supply Climbs Slowly and Demand Remains Limited -Too many ships and limited global demand has continued to push LNG shipping rates to record lows, but with so many vessels available, importers could benefit from lower shipping costs. Chart showing Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) and Fearnleys' estimates for spot LNG vessel rates. Widening the discount are the 90 new-build ships scheduled this year to hit a market that’s already flush with available vessels. The global fleet stands at about 650 ships. Moreover, the additional LNG capacity new ships are ultimately designed to serve is not expected to enter service until later in the decade. For a round-trip voyage in the Atlantic Basin, LNG freight rates were assessed at $4,250/day for a 174,000 cubic meter two-stroke vessel on Tuesday, up by $250 from Monday, according to Spark Commodities. In the Pacific, they were at $11,000, down by $500 from Monday.
Crude oil spill in Bottineau County (KMOT) – State regulators said 300 barrels of crude oil spilled from a tank overflow roughly five miles northwest of Maxbass. Scout Energy Management reported the spill Wednesday, according to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. The report indicated some of the spill sprayed off the well pad. The department is working with the responsible party to monitor cleanup.
Crews cleaning up after crude oil spill in north central North Dakota (KFGO) – Scout Energy Management reported a large oil spill five miles northwest of Maxbass Wednesday. The North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality says 300 barrels, amounting to about 12,600 gallons of the crude oil spilled from the tank. The report indicated some of the spill sprayed off the well pad. Department personnel are working with the responsible company and will continue to monitor the remediation.
Trump’s Tariff Push Will Give LNG Exporters Bigger Asian Presence -President Donald Trump’s approach to fixing U.S. trade deficits with the country’s biggest trading partners will benefit LNG exporters to Asia, giving them a bigger share of that market, Bloomberg Intelligence has forecast.The EU has already suggested it would increase its purchases of U.S. liquefied gas after Trump urged the bloc to do just that in order to shrink its surplus with the United States, which he considers unacceptable.Japan’s JERA was just recently reported to consider greater imports of U.S. LNG as well, seeking to diversify its sources of the commodity but also falling in line with Trump’s quest against trade deficits, as Japan is another big trade partner.JERA buys some 30 to 35 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually, of which just 3.2 million tons currently come from the U.S. The rest is imported mainly from Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These are the countries set to suffer the biggest losses in Asian market share as U.S. exporters ramp up their shipments.China is also planning to buy more liquefied gas from the United States. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese gas traders have committed to buying a total of 14 million tons from U.S. producers beginning in 2026. This is 50% more than China’s previous record of U.S. LNG purchases, set back in 2021.Other Asian nations are also ramping up their purchases of American LNG. Bangladesh just this week signed a supply deal with Louisiana-based Argent for the delivery of 5 million tons of the superchilled fuel annually. Meanwhile, PetroVietnam bought a U.S. LNG cargo for delivery in March. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, these developments could lead to less price volatility as additional supply caps rates at around $10 per million British thermal units. Not everyone agrees, however, with some predicting that European LNG demand growth, at some 14 million tons annually, would in fact boost prices.
China Slaps Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Crude and LNG - China has struck back at Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States, announcing today a 15% levy on imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal, and a 10% tariff on crude oil. Beijing also introduced export limits on more critical minerals, including tungsten, molybdenum, tellurium, ruthenium, and ruthenium-related elements in a bid to “safeguard national security interests,” Reuters reported. Tariffs will be introduced on farm equipment imports from the United States as well as some cars. “The trade war is in the early stages so the likelihood of further tariffs is high,” Oxford Economics said in comments on Beijing’s latest retaliatory move. President Trump announced he would be imposing import tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports into the United States and adding a 10% levy on Chinese imports before he took office, justifying the move with trade deficits the U.S. was running with its biggest trade partners. Trump reduced the rate for Canadian crude oil to 10% and on Monday announced a 30-day delay to the tariffs on Mexico and Canada taking effect amid urgent negotiations with the heads of the two states as they sought to clinch a new trade deal with Washington. There was no mention of such negotiations with China, however, and the 10% additional tariffs went into effect today. The tariffs on LNG could see a change in flows of the superchilled fuel into China in a reversal of earlier plans to boost these imports, as forecast by Bloomberg Intelligence last month. At the time, the outlet predicted that Trump’s approach to fixing U.S. trade deficits with the country’s biggest trading partners would benefit LNG exporters to Asia, giving them a bigger share of that market. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese gas traders have committed to buying a total of 14 million tons from U.S. producers beginning in 2026. This is 50% more than China’s previous record of U.S. LNG purchases, set back in 2021. Now, these flows may be in jeopardy unless the tariff exchange stops.
China’s Tariffs Could Drag Down U.S. Crude Oil Exports -The 10% Chinese tariff on imports of U.S. crude oil could push American crude exports lower in 2025 from the record highs seen in the past two years, analysts tell Reuters.On the day on which the U.S. blanket tariff of 10% on all Chinese imports took effect, China responded with several measured retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% levy on LNG and 10% on crude oil imports from the United States.U.S. crude accounted for about 5% of China’s total crude oil imports in 2024, as Chinese refiners imported about 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) of American crude volumes, per vessel-tracking data from Kpler cited by Reuters.Expectations are that China will significantly reduce or halt altogether U.S. crude imports due to the tariff.This could contribute to a decline in overall international demand for U.S. oil, according to Kpler.U.S. crude exports hit a record of over 4 million bpd in 2023, and were essentially flat last year, trade flow tracking showed.Per Kpler’s estimates, American crude exports rose only marginally last year from the previous year, and were up by just 24,000 bpd to average 3.8 million bpd in 2024.U.S. crude oil exports could be peaking and “China's retaliatory tariffs could only further accelerate that,” Kpler analyst Matt Smith told Reuters.American seaborne exports averaged 3.9 million bpd in 2024, down from 4 million bpd in 2023, per datafrom Vortexa.“Americas crude exports started to stagnate during the second half of 2024 with the US, the largest exporter, showing signs of slowdown,” Rohit Rathod, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Vortexa, said last month.U.S. crude exports could slide to 3.6 million bpd this year, especially if the Trump Administration enacts the tariffs on Mexico and Canada – currently on pause until March 4 – and more of the U.S. medium sour grades, such as Mars and Southern Green Canyon, is kept for domestic refining, Vortexa’s Rathod told Reuters.
LNG Price Impacts from Chinese Tariffs ‘Limited’, but Long-Term Volatility Clouds U.S. Projects - LNG market experts are predicting limited price impacts in the short term from Chinese tariffs on U.S. volumes, but a longer trade war could give a boost to projects in other countries. Graph showing North America's operational and under construction LNG facilities showing peak export capacity. Days after U.S. tariffs on some Chinese products went into effect, triggering reciprocal action from China, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reportedly been reticent to commit to trade talks. As Mexico and Canadian officials negotiate with the United States during a 30-day pause on the proposed 10-25% tariffs, duties on Chinese products went into effect early Tuesday. In response, China targeted U.S. LNG and coal imports with a 15% tariff beginning Monday (Feb. 10) and a 10% tariff on oil and heavy farm equipment that takes effect on Feb. 14.
Tariffs on Oil Are a Major Problem for U.S. Refiners -Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will further weaken the position of U.S. refiners who are already facing headwinds due to declining refining margins, Energy Aspects director of research Amrita Sen told Bloomberg on Monday.On Saturday, the U.S. Administration announced that additional tariffs would be implemented on Canada, Mexico, and China this week. Canada and Mexico face 25% tariffs, with Canadian energy slapped with a lower, 10%, tariff.The 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports doesn’t break U.S. refining, but it will add to the costs of refiners in the Midwest and the West Coast, although a weakened Canadian dollar would absorb some of that tariff, Sen told Bloomberg.Canada could send more of its oil to Asia from its Pacific Coast after the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, while the U.S. has to pay up for alternatives, Sen said.The bigger problem for U.S. refiners would be the 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. Refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast face much higher costs for 400,000 bpd of Mexican crude and another 200,000 bpd of fuel oil imports.Essentially, the tariffs “are a boon to Asian refiners,” Sen told Bloomberg.“It’s a win for a lot of the rest of the world, just a massive loss for US refining,” she added.It will be an unintended consequence “but that is absolutely how it’s going to play out,” Sen said.Commenting on the tariff announcement, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) President and CEO Chet Thompson said, “We are hopeful a resolution can be quickly reached with our North American neighbors so that crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals are removed from the tariff schedule before consumers feel the impact.”“American refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce the affordable, reliable fuels consumers count on every day,” Thompson added.American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Mike Sommers commented that API would continue to work with the Trump administration “on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation’s energy advantage and support American jobs.”
Top US Refiner Is Ready to Switch to Domestic Crude on Tariffs - Marathon Petroleum, the largest US refiner and a major buyer of Canadian crude, sees ample opportunity to switch to domestic oil at its Midwest plants should President Donald Trump’s potential trade war with neighboring countries limit access to foreign supply. Domestic US oil from the Bakken formation, Rocky Mountains and the Marcellus and Utica shale basins were examples Hessling gave of alternatives ...
Why US Refiners Won’t Ditch Canadian Crude Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that U.S. tariffs are on hold for one month after she held talks with President Trump and pledged to send 10,000 troops to the border to fight drug trafficking. Trump also spoke to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau to discuss the punitive tariffs, saying that Ottawa has “misunderstood” the situation. Over the weekend, Trump slapped Canada and Mexico with duties of 25% and China with a 10% levy. Oil flows facing tariffs represent 44% of U.S. oil product imports, 69% of crude oil imports and 81% of heavy crude oil imports. Last week, Trump engaged in his usual isolationist bluster, claiming that the U.S. does not need Canadian commodities including oil and lumber. “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country,” he said while speaking at the World Economic Forum. However, the experts have pointed out that Trump needs a reality check.“It’s not factually correct,” Richard Masson, an executive at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, told CTV News. “They do need our oil. We ship diluted bitumen, so four million barrels a day go to the states; more than two million barrels a day of that is diluted bitumen. It goes to refineries that are specifically configured to process it, especially in Minneapolis, Chicago and Wood River. That’s why they rely on it so heavily. So, the first part is hopefully we can talk to him and educate him if he doesn’t understand it. I’m sure that the big refiners in the U.S. are doing that now. But if it turns out that he’s going to put a tariff on it, then our challenge will be what happens to overall demand.”Similarly, commodity analysts at StandardChartered have painted a dire picture of the situation, saying oil buyers in the Midwest will almost certainly pay the price of the tariffs thanks to the limited substitutability of Canadian crude with other oils resulting in strong pass-through to retail prices.According to the analysts, the U.S. imported ~ 6.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in the first 10 months of 2024, of which 4.0 mb/d was heavy oil for use in upgraded refineries with cracking units. Canada provided 75% of U.S. heavy crude oil imports in 2024, with its market share having steadily increased since 2000, squeezing outflows from Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Some 80% of Canada's crude production flows downstream to U.S. refiners, with U.S. imports of Canadian crude reaching a record high of 4.42M bbl/day in the week ending January 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Unfortunately for Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot easily be substituted with the light oil that makes up most of U.S. shale oil production. StanChart has pointed out that such a switch would create a significant loss of optimization in the highly expensive cracking units that require feed from vacuum distillation of the heavy residual obtained by simple distillation. Canada has supplied 99.89% of all heavy imports into Midwest refineries over the past decade; the low substitutability of this flow implies that a tariff would largely feed through to local retail prices. Refiners will also have to cut runs due to the loss of refinery optimisation.
Trade Dispute Could Force U.S. to Buy Venezuelan Oil, Canada Says -- President Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian imports could leave the United States reliant on crude oil from Venezuela, with which the U.S. doesn’t want to work, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told the Financial Times. Joly is visiting this week Washington, D.C. for her first official meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. government leaders. The Canadian foreign minister emphasized the negative impacts that U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would have on both countries’ economies, workers, and businesses on both sides of the border. “Canadian energy and resources—including oil and critical minerals—underpin the long-term economic security and prosperity of both Canada and the United States to protect our energy security and reduce our reliance on the resources of non-like-minded countries,” Joly said ahead of her trip to Washington. “I’m travelling to Washington this week to emphasize that we are stronger when we work together, as partners and neighbours.”In an interview with FT, Joly said “We ship oil at a discount which is, ultimately, refined in Texas. If it’s not us, it is Venezuela.”Canada’s heavy crude is a staple with U.S. refineries in the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, which are configured to process the heavier crudes from Canada and Venezuela rather than the much lighter crudes from the U.S. shale patch.“There’s no other option on the table, and this administration doesn’t want to work with Venezuela,” Joly told FT.President Trump said on Thursday that the administration was considering a possible exemption for oil in the proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs could be imposed as early as Saturday.Canada has reportedly drafted a list of U.S. goods worth about US$105 billion that it could tax with tariffs if President Trump moves to impose tariffs on imports from Canada.
Colombian President Cancels Oil Joint Venture With U.S. Company - Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, has canceled a joint venture between state energy company Ecopetrol and Occidental Petroleum on environmental concerns regarding hydraulic fracturing.Bloomberg reported that Petro had shared his concern on national TV, saying he was against a recent expansion of the deal between Ecopetrol and Oxy because it involved fracking, going counter to his energy policy efforts, which center on the transition away from hydrocarbons to alternative sources of energy.“I want that operation to be sold, and for the money to be invested in clean energies,” Petro said at a livestreamed cabinet meeting. “We are against fracking, because fracking is the death of nature, and the death of humanity.”The call to dismantle the joint venture comes barely a day after Ecopetrol announced the extension of the deal with Oxy, which is focused on the Permian Basin—the most prolific shale play in the United States, with hydraulic fracturing the standard practice in such unconventional oil and gas deposits.“With this investment plan in 2025 from Ecopetrol Permian, to develop assets in the Midland and Delaware sub-basins, we could be drilling about 91 development wells, with an investment that exceeds $880 million,” the chief executive of the Colombian state oil firm said in a statement on Tuesday, asquoted by Reuters.Ecopetrol produces some 95,200 barrels of crude daily in the Permian, based on 2024 figures, which accounts for 12% of its total oil production. However, President Petro is a staunch opponent of the oil and gas industry and an ardent proponent of the energy transition. Fracking is banned in Colombia.In September last year, the Colombian governmentannounced a plan to spend $40 billion on shifting away from oil and gas, and replacing revenues from the hydrocarbons industry with other sources of government income. The money would be spent on what the publication called “nature-based climate solutions”, along with low-carbon energy, transport electrification, agricultural practices improvement projects, and projects for biodiversity protection.
Economic Headwinds Could Limit LNG Imports from Natural Gas Demand Leaders China and India - China and India are expected to remain key LNG import markets this year as global demand growth continues to be driven by Asia, but lagging economic recovery could curb the countries’ intake. Bar chart showing estimates for global natural gas demand growth. Asia accounted for more than 40% of global incremental gas demand last year, primarily driven by China and India, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest quarterly gas report. IEA forecast year/year natural gas demand growth to drop below 2% in 2025. Asia is expected to account for more than half of the rise in global gas consumption this year. But China’s gas demand is expected to slow down in 2025, largely because of reduced demand for energy overall, said Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.
China Targets U.S. LNG With Reciprocal Tariffs as Industry Warns of Project Impacts --President Trump slammed a 10% tariff on imports from China on Tuesday, triggering reciprocal actions against U.S. LNG exports that could cool long-term contracts from some of the world’s largest natural gas buyers. Chart showing U.S. LNG export facilities and the number of cargoes sent to China. While tariffs against Mexican and Canadian imports that rattled financial markets were given a last minute reprieve Monday, a tariff on Chinese products went into effect early Tuesday morning. In response, China targeted U.S. LNG and coal imports with a 15% tariff beginning Feb. 10 and a 10% tariff on oil and heavy farm equipment that takes effect on Feb. 14.
Trump’s Tariffs Send European Natural Gas Prices Higher — European natural gas prices continued to rally on Monday, reaching their highest level since October 2023 as the market weighed the impact of U.S. tariffs and President Trump’s threats to impose more against the European Union (EU). Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. Trump’s tariffs against Canada and China roiled equity markets and sent commodities seesawing. A 25% tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, along with a 10% tariff on imports from China, is set to take effect on Tuesday. Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Mexican goods by a month after speaking with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum. Trump continues to raise the prospect of tariffs against the EU, citing a wide trade deficit. The EU has pledged to retaliate.
Russia's gas exports via TurkStream hit record high in January - Russia's natural gas exports via the TurkStream pipeline to Europe reached a record high of more than 50 million cubic meters (mcm) per day last month after transit through Ukraine was shut, according to the recent preliminary calculations conducted by Reuters. These calculations closely correlated to those of the Russian news agency Tass, which on Saturday reported that Russia increased gas exports to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline in January to a record high since its launch in 2020. It cited the total monthly volume of 1.56 billion cubic meters (bcm), calling on data from the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG). Türkiye has remained the only route for Russian gas to Europe after a five-year transit deal between Moscow and Kyiv was not extended when it expired on Jan. 1. The TurkStream gas pipeline, with a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas, runs from Russia through the Black Sea to Türkiye and is designed to supply gas to Türkiye and the countries of southern and southeastern Europe. Based on data from European gas transmission group Entsog, calculations showed that Russian gas exports via the TurkStream jumped last month by 26.8% year-over-year, rising to 50.6 mcm per day from 39.9 mcm in January 2024, Reuters said on Friday. In total, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream have reached about 1.57 billion cubic metres in January, it said, up from 1.24 bcm in January last year and 1.54 bcm last December. Russia supplied about 63.8 bcm of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022, as shown by Gazprom data and Reuters calculations. That collapsed by 55.6% to 28.3 bcm in 2023 but increased to about 32 bcm in 2024. At their peak in 2018-2019, annual flows to Europe reached between 175 bcm and 180 bcm.
Russia Begins Large-Scale Inspection Of Tankers After Kerch Strait Oil Spill The Russian Ministry of Transport has started a large-scale inspection program for companies operating river-sea tanker fleets after the sinking of two tankers in the Kerch Strait in December 2024.The inspections were ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who directed the Ministry of Transport to assess whether tanker companies and individual owners are following regulations.The program will include the inspection of around 500 maritime and inland waterway transport firms that operate tanker vessels. The inspection is set to be completed by April 2025, before the start of the 2025 navigation season.The Ministry of Transport also confirmed that it would conduct a full audit of the regulatory framework governing the transportation of oil and petroleum products by sea and inland waterways.The inspection follows the tragic loss of two Russian oil tankers in the Kerch Strait on December 15, 2024. The tankers, the Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239, were carrying a total of about 9,200 tonnes of fuel oil when they sank. mOfficial reports state that about 2,400 tonnes of fuel oil were spilt, though unconfirmed reports suggest it could have been as much as 4,300 tonnes. The spill stretched nearly 10 miles, reaching parts of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, affecting coastlines and marine life.Reports indicate that over 700 seabirds and 61 dolphins were contaminated by the oil. Russian media quoted Viktor Basargin, the head of the Federal Service for Supervision of Transportation (Rostransnadzor), who confirmed that the inspections are already underway. He added that the inspection process would be completed by April, well before the 2025 navigation season begins. The Volgoneft class vessels involved in the incident are Soviet-era ships built in the 1960s and 1970s. These vessels were originally designed for operations on the Volga and Black Seas. Soviet naval architects used a mix of standard plate and higher-strength steel for construction. However, the vessels have a history of serious cracking issues, which led to an overhaul of the fleet in the 2010s. Despite these updates, the vessels are now over 50 years old and showing signs of wear and tear. The recent wrecks in the Kerch Strait have brought attention to the age and condition of these ships. While there have been several incidents with the vessels in the past, the December 2024 disaster is considered one of the worst environmental incidents in recent years. The Russian Ministry of Transport is also reviewing the regulatory framework governing the transportation of oil and petroleum products. The ministry aims to improve safety standards and prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future. Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection has criticised the vessels involved in the spill, calling them “unfit for their purpose.” The issue was discussed at a recent IMO sub-committee focused on pollution prevention and response, where allegations of negligence were also raised.
India's Russian Oil Imports Surge 13% In Jan Amid Sanctions - India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose 13 per cent in January, reaching 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), despite fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers, according to data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. In December 2024, Russia supplied 1.48 million bpd to India. Russia remains India’s largest crude supplier, accounting for over 30 per cent of total imports—a sharp increase from just 0.2 per cent before the Ukraine war in 2022. However, with the US imposing sanctions on January 10 targeting Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and 180 oil tankers, Russian crude exports are expected to decline in the coming months. India’s oil secretary Pankaj Jain previously noted that Russian oil tankers must be discharged by February 27, and financial transactions completed by March 12, as per the US Office of Foreign Assets Control's guidelines. Given these restrictions, Indian refiners have struggled to secure new spot purchases from Russia, with Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) warning of a decline in Russian crude's share in its import basket. India’s state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)—including IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL—source Russian crude via the spot market but have yet to secure a term deal with Russian suppliers. With uncertainty over Russian oil supplies, India increased imports from Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait, and Brazil in January. Saudi Arabia’s crude supply to India rose 12 per cent month-on-month to 723,000 bpd, while US oil imports surged 322 per cent to 279,000 bpd from 66,000 bpd in December. However, Iraq’s exports to India fell 8 per cent in January. India’s total oil imports rose by 6 per cent in January, reaching 4.98 million bpd, compared to 4.70 million bpd in December. The shift underscores India’s efforts to diversify crude sources amid growing supply uncertainties from Russia.
Singapore Reports 23-Tonne Oil Leak Near Sentosa - A diesel oil leak was detected in the southern waters of Singapore on Wednesday after a damaged shore fuel hose at the Police Coast Guard’s Brani Base spilled approximately 23 tonnes of oil.According to a joint statement from the Singapore Police Force, Maritime and Port Authority, and National Environment Agency, the leak started on 11.40 am (per Bloomberg time writing) was contained about four hours later.Cleanup operations, involving patrol craft and spill response teams, are underway, with authorities confirming that no oil slicks have been observed. Navigational traffic in the area remains unaffected. Despite the spill, Sentosa’s beaches remain open, with no oil sightings reported, according to the Sentosa Development Corporation.
Shell reports oil spill in Nigeria after saver pit overflows – (Reuters) - Shell reported an oil spill on Tuesday at Ogale, near Port Harcourt, after a saver pit overflowed during flushing operations in the Niger delta region. The oil major's Nigeria business said its spill response team contained the overflow and informed authorities. It added that arrangements were being made for a regulator-led joint visit to determine the cause and impact of the spill, a Shell spokesperson said in a statement. Decades of oil spills have blighted Nigeria's Niger River delta region, causing widespread environmental damage that has destroyed the livelihood of millions in the local communities and impacted their health. Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre (YEAC-Nigeria) said the spill occurred after an underground pit filled with crude started flowing to a pipeline that separates an area of the Ogoni cleanup project.
Around 40km Of West Coast Beaches Have Been Polluted By An Oil Spill – An oil slick first spotted over a week ago has spread to pollute around 40 kilometres of West Coast beaches, now threatening the Oilfant’s River estuary — a vital biodiversity hotspot. Bird Island near Strandfontein is just 20km south of the affected area, putting SANCCOB (Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds) on high alert. They’re especially worried about the 45,000 endangered Cape Gannets at Lamberts Bay. At least one Cape Gannet was found dead over the weekend. The exact source of the spill hasn’t been confirmed, but suspicion is on the wreck of the Panama-registered MV Ultra Galaxy, which ran aground south of Brand se Baai last July. The ship broke apart in a storm days later, spilling over 500 tons of oil and fertiliser into the ocean. Pollution is visible from just south of the wreck site. Locals say it doesn’t look like heavy crude oil but more like lighter hydrocarbons. Back when the ship went down, it was carrying around 332 tons of VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil), 180 tons of MGO (marine gas oil), and other hydraulic oils. The spokesperson for the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) Peter Mbelengwa told GroundUp on Sunday that the source of the spill was still being investigated and that samples had been collected for analysis. This incident triggered the emergency oil spill response company Spill Tech for clean up and monitoring at the sites where oil had been observed. “Protection measures for the Olifant’s River estuary are being considered with the possibility of booming the estuary if conditions allow.” Anti-pollution booms had been delivered to the estuary on Sunday. The Olifant’s River estuary is a key concern as it is one of just four permanently open estuaries on the West Coast and is ranked in the top five most important estuaries from a conservation perspective. Locals are saying that the authorities brushed off the first warnings about the pollution. Local diver Ronnie Coetzee shared in a widely-shared voice note how he and two other divers got “lekker sick” after diving in the area, with burning throats. He even spent three days trying to get oil out of his wetsuit. GroundUp notes that while an official was reportedly sent to take a water sample after this, Coetzee was never interviewed and no immediate anti-pollution measures were instituted. By Thursday afternoon, oil had started appearing on beaches to the south of the wreck, prompting clean-up teams to be deployed with full clean-up operations underway by Friday. West Coast environmental activist and conservationist Suzanne du Plessis, who chaired Olifant’s Estuary Management Forum for three years, was also someone who raised the initial alarm about the current slick. “This is a big slick, it’s huge, and it’s coming from way up north as far as the eye can see. If it gets into the estuary, it will be a disaster. For the beaches, there’s not much anyone can do except clean them, but the estuary can be protected and I think that should be a priority.” SANCCOB reported that no live oiled birds had been seen yet, but described the situation as “developing” and said it was waiting for further information and was ready to deploy teams if necessary.
Iraq’s oil exports to US surge by 118,000 bpd in a week - Iraq's oil exports to the United States rose by 118,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Sunday. According to the EIA data, US crude oil imports from top 9 countries averaged 5.981 million bpd last week, down by 92,000 barrels from the previous week's 6.073 million bpd. "Iraq's oil exports to the US reached 336,000 bpd, up by 118,000 bpd from the previous week's 218,000 bpd," it confirmed. The US's highest oil revenue last week came from Canada, averaging 3.716 million bpd, followed by Mexico at 521,000 barrels, Saudi Arabia at 417,000 barrels, and Venezuela at 319,000 barrels. The US also imported 283,000 bpd from Colombia, 114,000 from Brazil, 102,000 from Ecuador, and 92,000 from Nigeria.
OPEC’s Oil Production Continued to Decline in January - OPEC’s oil production declined in January for a second consecutive month amid lower output from Iran and Nigeria, according to the monthly Reuters survey published on Wednesday. Last month, all 12 OPEC producers saw their combined output drop by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December to 26.53 million, according to the Reuters survey of data from oil-flow tracking companies and sources at OPEC, oil firms, and consultants.Supply from Iran and Nigeria dropped by 60,000 bpd each, the most among OPEC producers, according to the survey.Iran, exempted from the ongoing OPEC+ cuts, reduced output by 60,000 bpd, and analysts expect further losses ahead as U.S. President Donald Trump restored the "maximum pressure” campaign on the Islamic Republic with the aim to drive its oil exports to zero. Nigerian production also fell by 60,000 bpd as the West African producer reduced exports.OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia saw its output slightly drop in January from December, the Reuters survey found. So did Iraq, the second-largest producer in the cartel.Iraq, however, has a lot of compensating to do over the next year, after having pumped above its quota in the OPEC+ agreement so far.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC+ panel monitoring the oil markets,praised this week Iraq for its improved compliance with the cuts.The JMMC meeting on Monday was a routine affair in which the panel did not recommend any changes to the current OPEC+ plan to begin gradually unwinding the cuts in April 2025.The JMMC doesn’t take decisions on production levels—these are taken by the OPEC+ ministerial meetings. At the previous OPEC+ ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.
OPEC+ Won't Change Oil Production Plans -Despite pressure from President Trump and a recent rise in oil prices, the OPEC+ group has said it won't change its current plan to begin gradually unwinding the cuts from April.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC+ panel reviewing policy and markets and potentially recommending actions to the group’s ministers to take, made its decision during its Monday meeting.No changes had been expected after anonymous delegates to Reuters ahead of the JMMC meeting.The JMMC, the panel that takes stock of oil market developments and proposes courses of action to the ministers of the OPEC+ group, doesn’t take decisions on production levels—these are taken by the OPEC+ ministerial meetings.At the previous ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.OPEC+ reiterated the importance of compliance with the cuts and the timely compensation for those producers who haven’t adhered to their assigned quotas.Ahead of the JMMC meeting on Monday, the oil market saw several turbulent weeks in which oil prices jumped after the previous U.S. Administration slapped aggressive sanctions on Russian oil trade. Prices fell two weeks later after the new administration, President Trump specifically, called on OPEC to lower the price of oil.“I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” President Trump said in an address to the World Economic Forum, four days into his second term in office.On Monday, global financial markets sunk while oil prices rose after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada, except for Canadian energy, for which the levy would be 10%. China will also be taxed with an additional 10% on all its exports to the U.S.
OPEC+ Challenges Trump, Maintains Production Cuts | Egypt Oil & Gas - OPEC+ agreed to maintain their policy on production cuts and gradually raise output as planned starting in April, despite President Trump’s calls for lower prices. Trump laid out his energy policy agenda in his address to the World Economic Forum, urging OPEC to lower oil prices, saying elevated prices have helped Russia continue the war in Ukraine. Concerns over US sanctions on Russia had pushed oil prices to $83 a barrel in mid-January, the highest since August 2024, before falling back below $77 later. However, they have risen again as concerns over supply disruptions have mounted. OPEC+ delegates have pointed out that their current plan is already in place to address market needs. Notably, OPEC+, including Russia, are cutting production by up to 5.85 million barrels per day (bbl/d), or about 5.7% of their global imports, under a series of measures agreed since 2022. In October 2022, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) to support oil prices amid fears of a global economic recession. It made several adjustments to its production targets during 2022, including increasing monthly global oil supply hikes and later bringing some production back online In April 2023, OPEC+ agreed to extend their voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) until the end of November 2024. However, as market conditions evolved and the need for further stabilization became evident, OPEC+ decided to implement additional cuts, raising the total to 3.66 mmbbl/d starting in April 2025 and continuing until September 2026.
Global oil prices surge on Monday as Trump’s tariffs spark supply fears - Global oil prices jumped up on Monday following the imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China, as the move sparked concerns over potential disruptions in crude supply from the two U.S. neighbours who are its largest oil suppliers. Reuters reported that by 0656 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.36, or 1.88%, to $73.89 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 73 cents, or 0.96%, to $76.40 per barrel. On Saturday, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, escalating trade tensions that could hinder global economic growth and fuel inflation. The tariffs include 10% on Canadian energy products and a full 25% tariff on Mexican energy exports to the U.S. U.S. oil refiners anticipate a hike in the price of crude oil from these two countries which contribute one-quarter of crude processed by US refineries, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Industry experts warn that the tariffs will increase costs for heavier crude grades essential for optimal refinery production, potentially reducing profitability and forcing production cuts. Meanwhile, there are concerns that demand may drop which may either cause a reduction in global oil prices or force oil producers to cut production. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee told Reuters that oil prices might decline in the longer term as tariffs weaken demand and pressure OPEC+ to reverse production cuts. Although OPEC+ is unlikely to succumb to Trump’s pressure to cut production. Delegates of the cartel hint that the group is unlikely to deviate from its current plan to gradually increase output during its meeting on Monday. What does this mean for Nigeria Nigerians are subjected to the volatility of the international oil market due to inadequate domestic supply of crude and continued reliance on imports. Nairametrics reported that the Naira-to-Crude initiative of the Federal Government, which is supposed to make crude oil available to local refiners in Naira, is marred by inconsistent implementation. Retail prices of petroleum products have gone up and down in recent weeks, with the latest development being a reduction in ex-depot price by the mega Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. Marketers say they still have petrol purchased at the higher price in stock, hence the price reduction by the Dangote refinery will not reflect in pump prices immediately. Any surge in global oil prices will be felt by Nigerians, as the volatility in the global market persists.
Oil prices close at 1-month low as US pauses tariffs on Mexico (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up in volatile trade on Monday but closed at a one-month low on the expiration of a higher-priced contract, as the market digested U.S. President Donald Trump's planned imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.Concerns over imports from two of the main crude suppliers to the U.S. boosted prices by over $1 a barrel earlier in the session before Trump paused the new tariffs on Mexico for one month as Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border to stem the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl. Brent futures for April delivery rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, from where that contract closed on Friday to settle at $75.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $73.16.That was the lowest close for Brent since Jan. 2 now that the lower-priced April contract is the front-month after the expiration of the higher-priced March future on Friday.Trump's sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China on Tuesday had threatened to kick off a trade war that could dent global growth and reignite inflation.The proposed tariffs included a 25% levy on most goods from Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports."Tariffs on Canadian energy imports would likely be more disruptive for domestic energy markets than those on Mexican imports and might even be counterproductive to one of the president's key objectives - lowering energy costs," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. Canada and Mexico together account for about a quarter of the oil U.S. refiners process into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Bar chart showing U.S. imports of crude oil by countryU.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in more than two years in January, but recovery was likely to be short-lived due to Trump's tariffs, which will potentially further raise raw material prices and snarl supply chains. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said the type of tariffs announced by the Trump administration may drive up inflation, while noting there's a lot of uncertainty and no urgency on the part of the U.S. central bank to change the direction of monetary policy. Higher inflation could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates to combat rising prices. That could reduce demand for energy by boosting borrowing costs and slowing economic growth.Tariffs will raise costs for the heavier crude grades that U.S. refineries need for optimum production, industry sources said.Gasoline pump prices in the U.S. are certainly expected to rise with the loss of crude for refineries and the loss of imported products, said Mukesh Sahdev at Rystad Energy.Trump has already warned that the tariffs could cause "short-term" pain for Americans. U.S. gasoline futures climbed up about 3% to a two-week high, helping to boost the 3:2:1- crack spread, which measures refining profit margins, to its highest since August 2024. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies like Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its policy of gradually raising oil output from April and removed the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration from the sources used to monitor its production and adherence to supply pacts.
Oil, gasoline futures rise after Trump slaps tariffs on Canadian crude - Oil futures finished Monday with a gain after President Trump slapped tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, sparking worries over U.S. crude imports. Upside was limited, however, by concerns that a trade war would dent demand. At a regularly scheduled meeting on Monday, ministers from members of OPEC+ - made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - left its existing oil production plans unchanged, even as Trump last month called on the group to lower oil prices.
- - West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery rose 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $73.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $75.18.
- -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, tacked on 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- Back on Nymex, March gasoline RBH25 climbed 2.9% to $2.12 a gallon, while March heating oil HOH25 gained 2.7% to $2.46 a gallon.
- -- March natural gas NGH25 surged 10.1% to $3.35 per million British thermal units, after posting a gain of nearly 12% last week.
Oil futures finished higher, but below the session's intraday highs above $75 a barrel for WTI. Trump on Saturday announced tariffs, including levies of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% on energy products from Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China. Then on Monday, Trump said tariffs against Mexico would be delayed by a month after "friendly" talks with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. "The fact that Canadian energy will have a 10% tariff - rather than 25% on everything else from Canada - will moderate the resulting increase in U.S. fuel prices," Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, told MarketWatch. 'The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump.'Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James "But let's be clear, drivers will still notice it at the pump," he added. "The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump. That means drivers should notice it toward the end of February" - though the magnitude of the price increase will be "very different as we look around the country." Read: Here's how much gas could cost you if Trump's threatened tariffs go through Many U.S. refiners are heavily dependent on the heavy crudes produced by Canada and Mexico. The U.S. imported 4.42 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in 2023, representing 52% of total U.S. oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration. Mexico comes in at a distant second, representing 11% of U.S. oil imports at 910,000 barrels per day. Read: Here's how long it may take for oil's gains to show up in gas prices at the pump "In theory, tariffs mean higher feedstock prices for U.S. refiners (which will ultimately be passed on to consumers)," Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, said in a note. They argued that the full cost of the tariff is unlikely to be picked up by U.S. refiners and consumers, however. In 2023, 97% of Canadian oil exports went to the U.S. Given that Canada has very few alternatives for where to export its crude oil, the price of West Canada Select will fall, and its differential to WTI widen, they wrote. At the same time, a global trade war is seen damping demand for crude. The tariffs "could be negative for oil prices if this has a negative economic impact," said Matt Polyak, managing partner at Hummingbird Capital. "Despite relative statistical inelasticity to GDP, historically one rule of thumb can be that every 1% of GDP growth or decline can impact U.S. demand growth" for crude oil by plus or minus 0.5%, he said. Meanwhile, OPEC+ ministers who met via videoconference Monday reaffirmed their current oil production plans, which include a gradual phaseout of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels starting April 1. The unwinding of those cuts had initially been set to take effect in the final quarter of last year, but were repeatedly delayed amid price weakness. Trump last month had called on OPEC to boost oil production. There was some speculation that OPEC+ would end the voluntary cuts to please Trump, but that overlooked the fact that the group of oil producers has ignored such requests by Trump in the past, said Anas Alhajji, an independent energy expert and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors. "OPEC+ is likely to start unwinding the voluntary cuts on April 1 if two conditions are met" - low inventories and increasing global oil demand, he told MarketWatch. In other energy news, prices for natural gas extended their rally from last week, when the EIA's storage report Thursday indicated a large withdrawal of 321 billion cubic feet - causing U.S. gas storage levels to fall into a deficit compared to the five-year average for the first time since January 2023, noted Seth Harper, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in Monday report. However, "warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in the first weeks of February may relax balances and help storage levels return to a surplus," he said.
Crude prices fall on US-China trade clash - Markets - Crude prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. tariffs on China took effect and Beijing retaliated with its own measures, heightening trade war fears, while U.S. President Trump delayed steep levies on Canada and Mexico for a month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $2.03, or 2.77%, at $71.13 a barrel by 1400 GMT while Brent futures lost $1.41, or 1.86%, to $74.55. China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% on U.S. coal and LNG, as well as 10% on crude oil, farm equipment and the small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States. Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may dampen demand for oil, leading to continued pressure on prices. “The tit-for-tat measures out from China may not stop at just the 10% tariffs on crude oil from the U.S., which can also see a deliberate attempt to weaken the yuan if the U.S. fires back with more tariffs on China exports to the U.S.,” “Overall such actions are likely to give rise to a stronger U.S. dollar that in turn weakens … oil prices given that OPEC+ members are still on track to increase oil supply gradually from April.” China’s 2024 crude oil imports from the United States accounted for 1.7% of its total crude imports, customs data shows. China’s counter-tariffs could be perceived as a sign of escalation and reduce the likelihood of a temporary resolution akin to U.S. agreements with Mexico and Canada, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement efforts in response to Trump’s demand to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling. That would pause for 30 days U.S. tariffs of 25% on the two countries as well as a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, all of which had been set to take effect on Tuesday. The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Monday to stick to its policy of raising oil output gradually from April. On the demand side, investors are awaiting U.S. oil stockpile data for the week to Jan. 31. Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude inventories to have risen but gasoline and distillate inventories are likely to have declined.
The Oil Market Sold Off as the U.S. Tariffs on China Took Effect - The oil market on Tuesday sold off sharply and ended the session lower as the U.S. tariffs on China took effect and China imposed retaliatory levies of its own, increasing fears of a trade war. The market was pressured as the trade tensions between the U.S. and China may lower demand for oil. China imposed levies of 15% on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% on crude oil after President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China went into effect early Tuesday morning. This followed a pause for 30 days of the 25% tariffs the U.S. was set to impose on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada starting on Tuesday. The crude market breached Monday’s low of $72.05 and sold off more than 3.4% as it posted a low of $70.67 by mid-morning. The market later retraced more than 50% of its move from Monday’s high of $75.18 to its low of $70.67 after an official said that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to restore his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions. The oil market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled down 46 cents at $72.70 while the April Brent contract settled up 24 cents at $76.20. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.33 cents at $2.4298 and the RB market settling down 1.87 cents at $2.0990. On Tuesday, China imposed retaliatory import duties of 15% on U.S. LNG and coal and 10% on crude oil as well as on farm equipment and some autos starting February 10th. China’s move came after the Trump administration imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports of Chinese goods into the United States. China’s reaction raises the risk of further moves by the United States, and increases the trade tension between the world’s two largest economies. The risk is that a series of tit-for-tat measures causes global economic growth to slow and inflation to rise as countries have to re-order supply chains and deal with increased disruptions to industries such as manufacturing and construction. However, the immediate impact of China’s measures on imports of U.S. crude, LNG and coal is likely to be limited. According to commodity analysts Kpler, China imported 5.99 million barrels of crude from the United States in January. This is equivalent to about 193,000 barrels per day, which is less than 2% of China’s total imports. China’s LNG imports from the United States have also been modest in recent months, with January coming in at 190,000 metric tons, down from 220,000 tons in December. China’s total LNG imports have been averaging around 6.5 million tons a month recently, meaning the U.S. is supplying in a range between 4% and 12% of the total. According to Kpler, China’s imports of coal from the United States were 1.34 million tons in January. Official customs data showed China’s total coal imports averaged 45.2 million tons per month in 2024, making the U.S. little more than a fringe supplier.A U.S. official said U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign a presidential memorandum on Tuesday that restores his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran and aims to deny Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.33 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 7th, cutting available refining capacity by 5,000 bpd.Jim Teague, the CEO of Enterprise Products Partners, said Enterprise has not received enough customer interest to commercialize its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) crude export project. The CEO blamed regulatory delays and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which rerouted oil flows, for the lack of interest in the project, adding that the company will continue to promote SPOT.
Oil mixed as Trump restores pressure on Iran, tariff drama caps prices (Reuters) - Oil prices diverged at settlement on Tuesday amid tariff drama between Washington and Beijing, and after U.S. President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, in a bid to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, per a U.S. official. Trump signed the presidential memorandum ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordering the U.S. Treasury secretary to impose "maximum economic pressure" on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 46 cents, or 0.63%, at $72.70 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude futures settled up 24 cents, or 0.32%, to $76.20. Oil came under pressure early as new 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports took effect on Tuesday, spurring retaliatory tariffs by Beijing. At its session low, U.S. crude was down more than 3%, the lowest since late December. Trump had driven Iran's oil exports to near zero during his first term after reimposing sanctions. They rose under former President Joe Biden's tenure as Iran succeeded in evading sanctions. Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracts about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, or around 3% of global output. "The reason why oil was down near the lower end of the trading range was the China retaliation, and it went back up because of the 'maximum pressure' on Iran," Traders had been eyeing efforts to schedule a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but the U.S. president said on Tuesday he was in no hurry to speak to his Chinese counterpart. Trump said "that’s fine" when asked about China's decision to issue retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. Earlier, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro had said the two leaders would speak, suggesting to investors there was scope for China to receive a temporary reprieve like Trump granted to Mexico and Canada on Monday. "Oil was down on the China retaliation, I think it's the expected Trump-Xi call that brought us back up, and we kind of know how those go now, in terms of walking this all back," On Monday, Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement. Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may dampen demand for oil, further pressuring prices. "The tit-for-tat measures out from China may not stop at just the 10% tariffs on crude oil from the U.S., which can also see a deliberate attempt to weaken the yuan if the U.S. fires back with more tariffs on China exports to the U.S.," "Overall such actions are likely to give rise to a stronger U.S. dollar that in turn weakens ... oil prices, given that OPEC+ members are still on track to increase oil supply gradually from April." China's 2024 crude oil imports from the U.S. accounted for 1.7% of its total crude imports, customs data shows. "The Chinese are smart targeting crude oil and liquefied natural gas, because that's effectively going to knock them out of the U.S. market as you're adding $5-$7 a barrel, depending on pricing and that's just not competitive," Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks rose last week while distillate inventories fell, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. .
Oil prices slide; China tariffs, Iran tensions in focus - Oil prices traded slightly lower during Asian trade on Wednesday as investors monitored the impact of China’s tariffs on United States energy imports, while renewed pressure from President Donald Trump to eliminate Iranian crude exports offered some support. By 2:45 pm AEDT (3:45 am GMT), Brent crude futures eased $0.33, or 0.4%, to US$75.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.26 or 0.4%, to $72.08.Oil prices fluctuated on Tuesday, with WTI briefly dropping 3% to its lowest level since 31 December after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal in response to Washington’s levies on Chinese exports.However, prices rebounded after Trump reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to curb its nuclear program and cut its crude exports to zero, as he did during his first term.According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the effect of China’s tariffs on energy prices is expected to be minimal, as global supply and demand remain unchanged.Further pressure on oil prices came from rising crude and fuel stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer. According to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures, U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.03 million barrels in the week ending January 31, greater than the 3.17 million barrels expected. Investors now await official U.S. government oil inventory data, set for release later on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into market direction.
WTI Extends Losses After Biggest Crude Inventory Build In A Year - Oil prices are leaking lower this morning after surging yesterday on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran as traders weigh the effect of a US-China trade war on demand.“Trump tariff chaos and trade war is no good for global growth and oil demand growth,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “But supply disruptions, as so often before, can then rapidly and suddenly turn everything around.”API reported yuuge builds for Crude and gasoline overnight but a large draw for Distillates (cold weather?)...API
- Crude +5.025mm
- Cushing +110k
- Gasoline +5.4mm
- Distillates -7.00mm
DOE
- Crude +8.64mm - biggest build since Feb 2024
- Cushing -34k
- Gasoline +2.23m - 12th straight weekly build
- Distillates -5.47mm - biggest draw since March 2021
Some massive swings in the inventory data last week with a huge crude build and large distillates draw... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Including the 250k addition the SPR, last week saw the biggest crude inventory build since Feb 2024 US Crude production rebounded from the cold-weather impacts...
Oil down as US crude inventories swell, traders worry about China-US trade (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signaled weaker demand, while worries about a new China-U.S. trade war fueled fears of softer economic growth. Brent crude futures settled down $1.59, or 2.09%, to $74.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.67, or 2.3%, to $71.03. U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners facing soft gasoline demand did maintenance work. "Refiners just don't have a call for crude right now," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York. "They're racing into maintenance, given the slack demand we're seeing for gasoline," he added. Concern over a new trade war between the U.S. and China, the world's largest energy importer, also pressured prices. On Tuesday, China announced tariffs on imports of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas and coal in retaliation for U.S. levies on Chinese exports, pushing WTI down 3% at its session low, the lowest since Dec. 31. "China putting a tariff on U.S. imports reduces the demand for those commodities, which need to be redirected into another market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. On Wednesday, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions, after Trump said he would restore the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that he enacted in his first term. Trump drove Iran's oil exports to near zero during part of his first term after reimposing sanctions to curtail the country's nuclear program. "Should these sanctions be reimposed, the resulting supply squeeze could sustain the upward momentum in oil prices, particularly amid slower than expected supply adjustments from OPEC+ producers," said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone. Tehran's oil exports brought in $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion a year earlier, according to EIA estimates. Output during 2024 was running at its highest level since 2018, based on OPEC data. "The oil market is now caught between increasing fears that an escalating trade war will damage global oil demand growth on the one hand and possible sudden disruption of Iranian oil exports,"
Oil Prices Rise as Trump's Policies Continue to Impact Markets --Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply increased crude prices for March. However, the rise was minimal compared to the biggest drop in Brent crude prices in nearly three months recorded the previous day. Brent crude futures rose by 8 cents to $74.69 per barrel as of 04:22 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 15 cents to reach $71.18 per barrel. Oil prices had fallen more than 2% on Wednesday, as a significant rise in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories signaled weak demand. Investors also weighed the impact of a new round of U.S.-China tariffs, which included levies on energy products. Prices have dropped nearly 10% from their highest levels of 2025, recorded on January 15—just five days before Donald Trump took office as President of the United States. Analysts expect market volatility in the coming weeks. “We can expect significant price fluctuations in the weeks and months ahead as markets assess the impact of Trump's new policy stances, particularly regarding tariff measures,” analysts from BMI wrote in a note on Thursday. The sharp price hike for Asian buyers by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, helped limit Wednesday’s sell-off. "Following the overnight sell-off and the Saudi price hike, we are likely to see some buying from traders covering short positions before reaching strong support levels between $70 and $68," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. Last month, the U.S. imposed new stringent sanctions on Russian oil trade, targeting so-called “shadow ships” believed to be used to circumvent trade restrictions. Since taking office, Trump has imposed tariffs on China, although they have been less severe than his campaign threats. In response, Beijing announced on Tuesday new tariffs on U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and coal imports. However, China’s purchases from the U.S. remain relatively modest, limiting the impact of these measures. “While some tariff measures may put upward pressure on oil prices, the net effect is likely to be bearish, given their potential negative impact on the global economy and Trump’s apparent willingness to grant energy exemptions to limit supply disruptions,” BMI noted.
US slaps sanctions on network shipping Iranian oil to China (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Thursday it is imposing new sanctions on a few individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China, in an incremental move to boost pressure on Tehran. They were the first U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil after U.S. President Donald Trump this week vowed to bring Iran's crude exports to zero as the U.S. tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Treasury said the oil was shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and its front company Sepehr Energy, which the U.S. designated in late 2023. The sanctions target individuals and companies in countries including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, the department said. Treasury said it imposed blocking sanctions on the Panama-flagged CH Billion tanker and the Hong Kong-flagged Star Forest tanker for their role in shipping Iranian oil to China. The U.S. said the tankers "onboarded" Iranian crude from storage in China as part of a scheme involving Iran's military, which stands to profit from the sale of the oil. The sanctions block access of the individuals and entities to any of their assets in the United States and prohibit U.S. foreign assistance. "We will use all tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable for its destabilizing activities and pursuit of nuclear weapons that threaten the civilized world," Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson, said about the sanctions. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian this week urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions. Jeremy Paner, a sanctions lawyer, said the move was a "tactic, not a strategy" in Trump's desire to greatly reduce oil exports since it did not go after banks in China that allow energy transactions. Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard, said it was similar to a series of sanctions imposed over the last two years by former President Joe Biden. The sanctions designated Iranian national Arash Lavian, who the U.S. said helped support Sepehr. The U.S. also designated Marshal Ship Management Private Limited. In addition, Young Folks International Trading Co and Limited and Lucky Ocean Shipping Limited were designated for operating in Iran’s petroleum sector. "These kinds of sanctions can be effective, but it's not going to drive the exports down to zero," said Paner, a former lead sanctions investigator at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. Fernando Ferreira, the head of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, said the sanctions were "an opening shot against China and Iran, designed to put Beijing on notice without disrupting backchannel discussions to explore the potential for a nuclear deal."
The Market Continues to Weigh New Policy Positions -- The crude oil market continued to trend lower on Thursday after posting an inside trading day on Wednesday. The market continued to weigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s new policy positions, including the trade tariffs, his vow to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero and his pledge to increase U.S. oil output. After trading mostly sideways in overnight trading on news that Saudi Aramco raised its prices for crude buyers in Asia, the market briefly breached a previous low of $70.67 posted on Tuesday. It traded to $70.66 before it quickly retraced its losses and rallied to a high of $71.85. The market traded higher amid the news that the Treasury Department imposed sanctions targeting shadow networks responsible for moving Iranian oil to China. However, the market erased its early gains and sold off to a low of $70.43 in afternoon trading after President Donald Trump reiterated a pledge to increase U.S. oil production. The March WTI contract settled down 42 cents at $70.61 and the April Brent contract settled down 32 cents at $74.29. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.38 cents at $2.3980 and the RB market settling up 24 points at $2.0747. China’s retaliatory tariffs on the United States may cause U.S. oil exports to decline in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, after growth plateaued last year. According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, China’s demand for U.S. oil has declined in recent years due to discounted Russian and Iranian oil, with exports to China totaling about 166,000 bpd in 2024, accounting for nearly 5% of all U.S. crude exports. Meanwhile, U.S. crude export growth stalled in 2024, increasing just 0.6% or 24,000 bpd in 2024 to average 3.8 million bpd, as U.S. companies limited shale production amid worries about global demand. Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said international demand for American crude exports may be peaking “and China’s retaliatory tariffs could only further accelerate that.” For China, the impact is likely muted as U.S. imports accounted for 1.7% of the country’s total crude imports in 2024, worth about $6 billion, and down from 2.5% in 2023, according to Chinese customs data. China increased imports from Canada by about 30% last year to over 500,000 bpd, following the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline.Trade sources said oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from China over tariffs that the Chinese government plans to impose on U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas imports starting February 10th. Data from analytics firms Kpler and LSEG showed that four tankers, carrying 6 million barrels of U.S. WTI and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude, and two LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Companies are expected to apply for waivers for tankers that have already been booked.The U.S. Treasury said it is imposing new sanctions on individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China. The move comes after U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week vowed to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero as the U.S. tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.According to Kpler data, EU and UK gasoline exports reached 895,000 bpd in January, down from 942,000 bpd in December.
Oil falls in choppy trade after Trump repeats pledge to lower prices -Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production, unnerving traders a day after the country reported a much bigger-than-anticipated jump in crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $70.61. Trump on Thursday repeated a pledge to boost U.S. oil production in order to lower commodity prices, saying the country will produce more oil than anyone has ever seen before. Oil prices have tumbled by about 10% since January 15, five days before Donald Trump took over as U.S. President, with the marketed buffeted by rapidly changing tariff measures from the U.S. against its major trading partners. Prices had briefly recovered on Thursday after the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on individuals and entities in multiple jurisdictions for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil to China. The move came after Trump earlier this week vowed to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, part of U.S. efforts to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "The notice is out - if you're a refiner or shipper moving Iranian oil, any part of it, you're at risk of getting whacked by the Treasury," said Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn. "Dealing with Iranian oil will be like Superman dealing with Kryptonite," he said. In Cyprus, the 'frying pan movement' is turning household waste into a sustainability lesson.00:0401:55 Oil prices were also supported by a decision by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Saudi Aramco to raise its March crude prices sharply for buyers in Asia. Prices of oil had plunged by more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signalled weaker demand, while investors also weighed up the implications of a new round of U.S.-China trade tariffs, including duties on energy products.
Oil trades above 5wk lows amid fresh Iran sanctions --Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trading on Friday but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. By 3:35 pm AEDT (4:35 am GMT), Brent crude futures were up $0.26 or 0.4% to US$74.55, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April rose $0.22 or 0.3% to $70.59 per barrel.The U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on Thursday on a network of over a dozen individuals and firms accused of facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China.The sanctions target entities and individuals in China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as several vessels.Meanwhile, ANZ analysts said in a note to clients: “There are also signs emerging that US sanctions on Russia are taking effect. Russia’s flagship crude oil dropped below a price cap of USD60/bbl for the first time since December. Sellers of Ural, the nation’s key export grade are having to swallow discounts of as much as USD16/bbl, according to data from Argus Media. At the same time, the spread between export prices at Russian ports and import prices at Asian destinations have ballooned. Tighter sanctions are likely to have an immediate impact on the physical market.” Over the weekend, Trump announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as part of a broader strategy to address the U.S. trade deficit. However, he held off on imposing similar levies on Mexico and Canada.
Oil Futures Rose Following Sanctions on Iranian Oil Trade - Oil futures rose Friday morning following new sanctions the U.S. Department of Treasury imposed on Iranian oil trade, amid some optimism about the outcome of the trade tariff war between the U.S. and China. "Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing's retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING Research, in a report. Oil futures ended up on Friday as markets reacted positively to the announcement of additional sanctions that the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed... The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose by $0.62 to $71.23 bbl while the April ICE Brent futures contract increased by $0.52 to $74.81 bbl. March RBOB futures contract rose by $0.0122 to $2.0869 gallon while ULSD futures contract for March delivery increased by $0.0127 to $2.4107 gallon. In the opposite direction, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped by 0.32% to 107.515 against a basket of foreign currencies. Thursday, Feb. 6, the Department of Treasury announced sanctions on "an international network for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the People's Republic of China." According to the Treasury statement, the Iranian crude was shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars. The U.S. sanctions are targeting entities and individuals from China, India and the United Arab Emirates, as well as several vessels. U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. Stricter sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil trade are expected to affect global supply-demand balance, putting upward pressure in international oil prices. Friday morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non-farm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4%. Both figures were below the market expectations of 169,000 and 4.1%, respectively. Job gains occurred in healthcare, retail trade and social assistance, while employment dropped in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industry, the BLS said.
Crude falls for the week as Trump's historic moves 'write the script' for oil in the short term - Oil futures climbed Friday from their lowest levels of the year, but tallied a third straight weekly fall amid rising U.S. inventories and worries that the Trump administration's higher tariffs on China will dent economic growth and demand for crude.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery rose 39 cents, or nearly 0.6%, to $71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange - but prices for the front-month contract lost 2.1% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 37 cents, or 0.5%, at $74.66 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a weekly decline of 1.3%.
- -- March gasoline RBH25 tacked on 1.5% to $2.11 a gallon, up 2.2% for the week, while March heating oil HOH25 climbed 1.4% to $2.43 a gallon, for a weekly rise of 1.4%.
- -- Natural gas for March delivery NGH25 settled at $3.31 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% for the session but posting a weekly rise of 8.7%.
Overall, "the biggest influence on oil prices, no doubt, is President Donald Trump," "The president will keep us guessing - from tariffs on to tariffs off." Trump this week restated a goal from his first presidency to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, and there's speculation he may unveil a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. The largest effects on the oil market will be "whether sanctions on Russia would continue to be in place if a peace deal was agreed upon," "If sanctions were removed, there would be some downside volatility in crude-oil markets, even though Russian oil flows have remained steady since sanctions have been in place." 'All of these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come.' All in all, however, "these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come," said Flynn. On Friday afternoon, Trump said he would announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Details on that are "missing," Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates, wrote in a daily note. He expected more volatility in the financial markets going into the weekend, as "the new administration has been showing a tendency to make new announcements over the weekends." WTI, the U.S. oil benchmark, had fallen toward $70 a barrel on Thursday, finding "strong dip-buying" interest this morning, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. Both WTI and Brent ended Thursday at their lowest since Dec. 27. Concerns over Trump's trade policies - after the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on China this week and uncertainty over other tariff moves - threaten to "hammer global growth prospects and will probably support a deeper retreat in crude prices," she wrote, with a fall toward the $65 to $68 range now looking plausible. A hefty rise in weekly U.S. crude supplies contributed to oil's losses this week. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that commercial crude inventories climbed for a second week in a row, rising by 8.7 million barrels for the week that ended Jan. 31.
Kremlin Says Zelensky Is 'Delusional' & 'Approaching Madness' After Nuclear Comments -Moscow has responded to fresh words of Ukraine's President Zelensky wherein he urged for the West grant Ukraine nuclear weapons access. "Give us back nuclear arms," Zelensky said while discussing scenarios of how the Ukraine war could end in a televised interview with Piers Morgan. Zelensky told Morgan: "Will we be given nuclear weapons? Then, let them give us nuclear weapons. Will they give us the missiles in the quantities [needed to] stop Russia? I’m not sure of that, but I think it would help. Otherwise, what missiles can stop Russia’s nuclear missiles?" He added: "That’s a rhetorical question."And that's when he urged more seriously, "So, let’s do it the following way: Give us back nuclear arms. Give us missile systems. Partners, help us finance the one-million[-man] army, move your contingent on the parts of our state where we want the stability of the situation, so that the people have tranquility." Zelensky is now openly requesting that nuclear weapons be given to Ukraine and that Ukraine will accept them to deter Russia.There is really only one path forward from this position if you are the Russians. pic.twitter.com/CXRaJlyvPZ
15 Killed as Gunmen Carry Out Sectarian Massacre in Another Syrian Alawite Village - Syria’s ruling Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has repeatedly promised an inclusive Syria that respects all of its communities. That doesn’t appear to be working out so well for the nation’s Alawite minority though, which is coming under growing attack. Over the weekend, gunmen from an unidentified Sunni group attacked the village of Arzah al-Dabaa. They reportedly went door to door andshot Alawites who answered the knock. At least 15 people are reported to have been killed.Details are still emerging, but this is hardly the first time since the regime change in December that Alawites have come under direct attack. The HTS even participated in some past raids, though this incident they don’t appear to have been directly present.(Map of situation in Syria by southfront.press)The Alawites are a Shi’ite sect, and make up about 10% of Syria’s population. Former President Bashar al-Assad was an Alawite, so some who participated in the rebellion are transferring their hostility toward him to Alawite villagers, even though Assad wasn’t always particularly nice to Alawites either, and many were quite hopeful with his ouster. At least at first. Since the regime change, there have been a lot of attacks on Alawite civilians, and the new government has shrugged them off as moves against “remnants” of Assad forces. This minority is definitely feeling at risk in the present circumstances. Reports from the Lebanese side of the border are that Alawites in the village of Ghajar, near the Syria crossing, are increasingly concerned about the fate of their brethren inside Syria. Consistent reports of summary executions and a Syrian government run by people with historic links to al-Qaeda don’t suggest this is going to be resolved any time soon.
Arab states policing Gaza as Trump and Netanyahu plan ethnic cleansing of Palestinians-- US President Donald Trump has made clear that his plan to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip assumes the direct collusion of the Arab regimes. When Trump first issued an open call for Israel to “clean” Gaza of its Palestinian inhabitants, in a textbook definition of ethnic cleansing, he told reporters on Air Force One, “You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out” the Gaza Strip, which he described as a “demolition site”. He then called for the Palestinians to be resettled in Jordan and Egypt, adding, “I wish [Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi] would take some. We helped them a lot, and I’m sure he’d help us. He’s a friend of mine. He’s in … a rough neighbourhood. But I think he would do it, and I think the king of Jordan would do it too.” He later made the not too subtle observation that both countries received significant aid from the US. Trump’s call was met with pro-forma and polite rejection from both al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Likewise his subsequent proposal, made at the White House Tuesday alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of a direct US takeover of Gaza was rejected by all the Arab regimes, who, along with all the major imperialist powers, reiterated their commitment to a Palestinian return to their homeland and an eventual “two states solution.” But however politically difficult this might be for the bourgeoisie in the Middle East, and it certainly is, Trump has reasons to anticipate some form of deal being reached on ethnic cleansing, even if this doesn’t involve a US real estate deal. Over the last 16 months, the Arab states have given their backing for Israel’s genocidal assault and deepened their collusion with the Netanyahu government in policing the Palestinians and suppressing domestic opposition. Their alternative to the forcible displacement of the Palestinians from Gaza desired by Trump and Netanyahu is not a mythical “two states solution”, but their agreeing to act as prison guards for Palestinians trapped in a ruined enclave—without homes, water, electricity, health care and any of the fundamentals of existence. And if this proves unacceptable to the White House, then collusion in some variant of ethnic cleansing is not excluded. Trump’s statements confirm that the fascist government of Netanyahu utilised the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023 to launch a pre-planned campaign of mass murder with the aim of the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, beginning with Gaza and then moving on to the West Bank and including Israel’s two million Arab citizens.
Lancet study finds Gaza life expectancy slashed in half by Israeli genocide - Life expectancy in Gaza plunged by nearly 50 percent in the first year of the Israeli genocide in the besieged enclave, a study published in The Lancet has found. The study, led by Michel Guillot, professor of sociology in the School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, found that life expectancy in Gaza fell by a staggering 34.9 years, erasing over a century of progress in life expectancy in just one year. For men, life expectancy dropped to 35.6 years from a pre-war life expectancy of 73.6 years—a decline of over 50 percent. For women, life expectancy declined from 77.5 years to 47.5 years. By comparison, Nigeria, the country previously with the lowest life expectancy, has a life expectancy at birth of 54.46 years. The study’s findings indicate that the population of Gaza now has a life expectancy lower than any other country in the world. These findings make clear that Israel’s war in Gaza is not a war, but a genocide, aimed not at any military objective but at killing as many Palestinians as possible and destroying as much of Gaza as possible in order to ethnically cleanse the territory, settle it, and annex it into “greater Israel.” This has been the aim of the Israeli state since the Nakba of 1948-1949, and has been its modus operandi for decades, including the illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1967. With the support of the Biden administration, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu initiated a full-scale genocide in October 2023, using the October 7 attacks as a pretext. The figures in the latest The Lancet study are likely to be a major underestimation, as they do not account for deaths uncounted in official government statistics or deaths due to Israel’s deliberate policy of starvation, dehydration, and the destruction of Gaza’s medical infrastructure. The study based itself on data from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, which estimates that Israeli forces have directly killed 45,936 Palestinians. The authors noted that “our approach to estimating life expectancy losses in this study is conservative as it ignores the indirect effect of the war on mortality… Actual losses are likely to be higher.” Earlier this month, another study published in The Lancet estimated that Palestinian deaths in Gaza from Israeli bullets and bombs “probably exceeded 70,000.” An earlier study from The Lancet suggested that the all-cause mortality from the genocide, including from malnutrition and disease, could be 186,000 or more. In November, the United Nations Human Rights Office published a report showing that nearly 70 percent of verified deaths in Gaza were of women and children, further underlining the reality that Israel is waging a genocide in Gaza.
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