US oil prices finished lower for a fifth consecutive week as geopolitical risks to oil supplies continued to wane...after finishing 0.4% lower at $70.74 a barrel last week after Trump called Putin to jumpstart peace talks on Ukraine and after the EIA reported another large increase in US oil inventories, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery moved lower in early overseas trading on Monday on a stronger US dollar and the prospect of peace in Eastern Europe, and remained under pressure on talk of a potential restart in oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, while US markets were closed for the holiday…. however, oil prices rose in early global trading Tuesday following a drone attack on a Russian oil pipeline pumping station that curbed flows from Kazakhstan, then traded mixed on US markets as supply disruptions from Kazakhstan lifted prices while uncertainty over ongoing peace talks between the United States and Russia kept gains in check, but began an upward trend on a Bloomberg News report stating that OPEC+ was considering whether to delay their supply increase, and settled $1.11 higher at $71.85 a barrel as supply disruptions mounted in Russia and the U.S., while talks to end the war in Ukraine limited gains, as that could boost supplies from Moscow…oil prices extended their gains in Asian trading early on Wednesday, as supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia tightened global markets, and held near a one week high in US trading before settling 40 cents higher at $72.25 a barrel on worries about supply disruptions as traders awaited clarity on sanctions on Russia and Iran while the US was trying to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine….prices for the US March oil contract drifted lower in Asia on its last day of trading on Thursday after an American Petroleum Institute report indicated a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles, while concerns over trade tariffs further pressured sentiment, but then moved higher in Europe after the EU agreed to a new sanctions package against Russia, and held those gains in New York despite a larger than expected crude inventory increase, after Trump vowed his Administration would fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fast and expired 32 cents higher at $72.57 a barrel after EIA data showed gasoline and distillate inventory drawdowns, while worries about supply disruptions in Russia also supported prices, while the more actively traded contract for the benchmark US crude for April delivery settled 38 cents higher at $72.48 a barrel...with markets now quoting the price for April oil, prices dropped on global markets on Friday, as Kazakhstan had managed to pump record high oil volumes despite damage to its CPC export route, and tumbled further in New York after the breach of a key technical price level accelerated selling driven by the possibility of increased flows from Iraq, and settled $2.08 lower at $70.40 a barrel, as traders grappled with a fading Middle East risk premium amid uncertainty about a potential peace deal in Ukraine, and thus ended 0.5% lower for the week, while the April contract for the benchmark US oil, which had closed the prior week at $70.71 a barrel, ended 0.4% lower...
natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished higher for a third consecutive week. due to lost production from freezing wells and record flows of gas to LNG export plants….after rising 12.6% to $3.725 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for much colder eastern US temperatures thru the first week of March, the price of the benchmark contract for March natural gas delivery opened 3.6 cents lower on Tuesday morning after the holiday weekend, as traders reacted to a forecasted month-end thaw, but moved confidently higher by midmorning on the way to a settlement 28.2 cents higher at $4.007 per mmBTU as extreme cold in some parts of the country cut output by freezing oil and gas wells, while gas flows to LNG export plants had reached record levels…natural gas prices moved sharply higher through midday trading on Wednesday, finding ample support from winter storms traversing large swaths of the country, and settled 27.3 cents higher at a 25-month high of $4.28 per mmBTU, as extreme cold in some parts of the country boosted demand for heating and cut output by freezing oil and gas wells….however, natural gas prices opened 15.2 cents lower on Thursday, as traders took profits and shifted their focus to impending mild March temperatures, and settled 12.8 cents lower at $4.152 per mmBTU on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand next week than previously forecast…natural gas prices moved higher early Friday, as fickle forecasts flipped from near-term warming to further freezing, and March natural gas went on to settle 8.2 cents higher at $4.234 per mmBTU as extreme cold over the past couple of weeks had cut output by freezing wells while gas flows to LNG export plants remained at record highs, which thus left natural gas prices 13.7% higher for the week...
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending February 14th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 196 billion cubic feet to 2,101 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 386 billion cubic feet, or 15.5% below the 2,487 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on February 14th of last year, and 118 billion cubic feet, or 5.3% less than the five-year average of 2,219 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 14th of February over the most recent five years….the 196 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was more than than the 188 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and was quite a bit more than the 58 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, and was also more than the average 145 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same end of January week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 14th indicated that despite a decrease in our oil imports and an increase in our oil exports, we were again left with surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for fourth time in thirteen weeks, and for twelfth time in thirty-three weeks, largely due to an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 488,000 barrels per day to average 5,820,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 606,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 472,000 barrels per day to average 4,381,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,439,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending February 14th, an average of 960,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 568,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 13,497,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,504,000 barrels per day during the February 7th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,416,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 14th, an average of 15,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 662,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending February 14th averaged a rounded 573,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +573,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 458,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,031,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded net 662,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 662,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while oil supplies in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged for the first time since November 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,373,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.6% less than the 6,409,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 3,000 barrels per day higher at 13,497,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 2,000 barrels per day higher at 13,061,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 436,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 84.9% of their capacity while processing those 15,416,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 14th, down from their 85.0% utilization rate of a week earlier, and down from 91.7% utilization rate of five weeks earlier, reflecting the impact of the earlier below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and also the beginning of refinery’s Spring maintenance….the 15,416,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 5.8% more than the 14,574,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the similarly cold impacted week ending February 16th of 2024, but 4.9% less than the 16,210,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending February 14th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.4%, also low for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 156,000 barrels per day to 9,190,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 14th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 180,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 1.8% more than the 9,029,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending February 16th of last year, but was 3.5% less than the gasoline production of 9,525,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending February 14th, 2020….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 180,000 barrels per day to 4,723,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 9,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 13.2% more than the 4,171,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending February 16th of 2024, but 2.7% less than the 4,852,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending February 14th, 2020…
With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the second time in fourteen weeks, decreasing by 151,000 barrels to 247,902,000 barrels during the week ending February 14th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 3,035,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 337,000 barrels per day to 8,239,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 72,000 barrels per day to 898,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 27,000 barrels per day to 346,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-nine gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-five weeks, our gasoline supplies were 0.4% higher than last February 16th’s gasoline inventories of 247,037,000 barrels, but were 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with the increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the fourteenth time in twenty-two weeks, decreasing by 2,051,000 barrels to 116,564,000 barrels during the week ending February 14th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 135,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 679,000 to 4,364,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of distillates fell by 166,000 barrels per day to 918,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates rose by 22,000 barrels per day to 267,000 barrels per day...After 33 inventory withdrawals over the past 57 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 4.2% below the 121,651,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on February 16th of 2024, and about 12% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, even with the decrease in our oil imports and the increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, increasing by 4,633,000 barrels over the week, from 427,860,000 barrels on February 7th to 432,493,000 barrels on February 14th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 4,070,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after those two big increases, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 3% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were 33.3% above the average of our available crude oil stocks after the second week of February over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this February 14th were 2.4% less than the 442,964,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on February 16th of 2024, and 9.7% less than the 479,041,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on February 17th of 2023, but were 4.0% more than the 416,022,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on February 18th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count rose for a fourth consecutive week after falling to a three year low five weeks ago, mostly on an increase of horizontal rigs drilling for oil since that time....for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 21st, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 14th) and this week’s (February 21st) count, the third column shows last week’s February 14th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 23rd of February, 2024…
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First fracking well under state wildlife areas has been drilled, officials say – Cleveland.com A Houston-based oil and gas company has drilled the first fracking well beneath Ohio’s preserved park and wildlife lands.Ohio Department of Natural Resources Director Mary Mertz told the House Natural Resources Committee this week that one well has been drilled, but it is not yet producing any oil or gas. A department spokeswoman later confirmed Mertz was referring to land beneath Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, where Encino Energy won mineral rights.“The unit is not in the wildlife area and there are no surface impacts to the wildlife area,” said agency spokeswoman Karina Cheung. “The wells have been drilled and are not in the production phase.”The well was planned to sit northwest of Valley Run, just under 2 miles away, documents show.That is possible via an extraction technique called hydraulic fracturing — better known as fracking — in which operators drill down thousands of feet vertically from a well pad at an adjacent property before turning 90 degrees and reaching laterally for miles. From there, they pump water, sand and a chemical cocktail under high pressure to free methane (natural gas) from the underground shale. They then pump the gas and the spent brine back to the surface. Encino paid more than $1 million to the state as a signing bonus and will pay 18% on royalties from any gas the well produces.An Encino spokeswoman declined to comment or offer timing on when production might begin.The state Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has previously opened up 6,584 acres of land at Salt Fork State Park, plus smaller tracts at Keen Wildlife Area, Zepernick Wildlife Area, Leesville Wildlife Area and Egypt Valley Wildlife Area. Developers have also asked the state to open Jockey Hollow Wildlife area as well. Technically, Republican state lawmakers first allowed agencies to lease their lands in 2011. However, the leasing program remained dormant under Gov. John Kasich and the Gov. Mike DeWine’s first four-year term.But Republican lawmakers in 2022 effectively force started the program by passing new legislation, which also legally redefined natural gas as “green energy.” DeWine signed the bill but said he would not allow any drilling to occur at the surface level in state parks and wildlife areas.Under state law, 30% of the lease proceeds must go toward capital expenditures at that specific site. Lawmakers and state officials are now sorting out what to do with the rest. According to Mertz, there’s about $40 million left over from the first round of lease bonus payments. Her department formally asked state lawmakers to allocate the money to the Division of Parks and Watercraft, in lieu of a general revenue fund increase, to pay for equipment for resource officers, payroll, operational costs and replacing some of the department’s vehicle fleet.The budget is in its early legislative stages and it remains to be seen what comes of the $40 million.Meanwhile, the state will in the coming years begin to receive its first royalty monies, but Mertz said there’s no saying how much that will be.“I have no sense at all of what to anticipate in terms of royalty proceeds,” she said.
How Oxford's drinking water avoided a contamination catastrophe - It was a normal day for Tim McLelland when he got a call that helped avert a potential disaster. McLelland, the groundwater protection manager at Hamilton to New Baltimore groundwater consortium in Southwest Ohio, receives plenty of random phone calls, many of which involve neighborly disputes or exaggerated claims. But this particular call stood out. “When the lady called me and said ‘I got a crude oil pipeline sticking out of my backyard in the creek,’ I didn’t believe it,” McLelland said. “I thought maybe it’s a natural gas line.” When he checked the maps, he realized she was right: an exposed crude oil pipeline ran through Seven Mile Creek, posing a significant risk to the well fields in that area that supply Oxford’s drinking water. McLelland said he knew he needed to investigate the matter. When he visited the site the following day, he was met with a sign that read: “Warning Exposed Crude Oil Pipeline” from Mid Valley Pipeline Company. According to federal regulations from the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, oil companies are not required to rebury or cover pipelines if they are exposed. Instead, they are only required to monitor the pipelines, assess environmental hazards and post a sign indicating the exposure. “I thought to myself, ‘Man, that’s a crazy rule,’” McLelland said. “[The pipeline] was buried underground, but now it’s sticking up out of the creek. If a boulder comes along and hits that pipe, we’re screwed.” After talking with the woman who noticed the exposed pipeline, McLelland learned she had tried to contact the Ohio EPA and Department of Natural Resources about the situation, but no progress had been made. Knowing he needed to take action, McLelland worked with Andreas Eddy, the water plant manager in Oxford, to notify the Ohio EPA about the situation in May 2023. At the time, two fallen trees were overlying the pipeline, which could’ve been deadly had they breached it. Before writing the letter to the EPA, Eddy contacted Mid Valley and was told that an engineer would assess the situation. He later received a follow-up call from a company representative. “He stated that Mid Valley has extensive records of this particular section of pipeline,” Eddy wrote in the letter to the Ohio EPA. “He told me the pipe is in good condition for its age and that the corrosion rate was normal. He assured me that this situation was low-risk. I kindly disagreed with him.” They soon discovered the Ohio EPA has no regulatory authority over the pipeline industry unless a spill occurs. In that case, they can assist with the cleanup efforts. McLelland researched similar incidents of spills occurring from the same pipeline, including one in 2014, when 20,000 gallons of oil spilled in Colerain Township, contaminating a constructed wetland and nature preserve. The full cleanup effort of the preserve took five years. The specific pipeline crossing Seven Mile Creek is over 74 years old and runs about 420,000 gallons worth of oil per hour. The nearest shutoff valves are 16 miles apart, meaning if the valves were shut off following a spill, a maximum of approximately 1.4 million gallons of oil could be spilled if the pipeline weren’t patched. Knowing the potential for disaster from this pipeline, McLelland sent a letter to the company expressing concern about the pipeline's proximity to drinking water sources and asked for “open and transparent dialogue.” After a month of waiting, he received a call from the company saying, “We appreciated the tone of your letter, we’ll agree to meet with you.” After initial discussions, McLelland convinced Mid Valley to conduct a “spill drill” in the region. In August 2024, over a year after McLelland was notified of the exposed pipeline, the company sent representatives from its headquarters in Longview, Texas, to its office in Hebron, Kentucky, to conduct the drill with its staff and McLelland. On Sept. 5, 2024, McLelland’s birthday, Mid Valley completed their promise to rebury the pipeline crossing Seven Mile Creek by covering it with a Submar mat, a concrete system meant to prevent further erosion and protect the pipeline. “The rules say they don’t have to [cover the exposed pipeline], but they did it anyway [and] spent the money to do it,” McLelland said. “They didn’t have to do a spill drill with us, either. They didn’t have to take our information down and consider it a risk, but they saw it [and] they realized that this was a concern.”
Report Reveals Ohio’s Largest Oil & Gas Counties, Royalty Payers -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The Ohio Natural Energy Institute (ONEi) is a nonprofit organization of professionals who educate people about the essential energy that makes life better, specifically focusing on natural gas and oil production. ONEi provides trusted, factual information through teacher workshops, first responder training, guest speaker programs, and more. The organization used to be called Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program, or OOGEEP (see OOGEEP Renames & Rebrands Itself as Ohio Natural Energy Institute). The organization publishes some great materials, including a brand-new report titled The Essential Facts on Essential Ohio Energy (copy below). This report is loaded with great information.
Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County Fails 2 Integrity Tests -- Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2024, MDN brought you the news that the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) approved a plan by Catalyst Energy to convert an existing conventional gas production well on Route 646 in Cyclone (Keating Township, McKean County, PA) into a shale wastewater injection well (see PA DEP Approves Shale Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County). The DEP approved the plan on Jan. 11, 2024. Residents who live nearby and are opposed appealed the decision to the PA Environmental Hearing Board (EHB), a special court set up to hear appeals of DEP decisions. The EHB issued an opinion on Dec. 27 that allowed the well to move forward (see PA EHB Allows Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County to Open). Catalyst commenced injections on Jan. 22, subject to mechanical integrity and other requirements. However, the well failed DEP mechanical integrity tests….twice. Yet it continues to inject.
36 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 10 – 16 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Feb 10 – 16, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells soared. Two weeks ago, 24 new permits were issued. Last week, the number increased to 36 new permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued the vast majority with 23 new permits last week. Seven permits went to PennEnergy Resources, all on a single pad in Armstrong County. Snyder Brothers received five permits for a single pad, also in Armstrong County (meaning half the PA permits went to Armstrong). Range Resources was third in line with four new permits for a single pad in Washington County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | JKLM ENERGY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SNYDER BROTHERS | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
Stop Press! Trump Pledges to Revive PA-to-NY Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News - Never in our wildest dreams did we see this one coming. And we must caution against too much hope. However, we are JAZZED. Last Friday, President Trump signed yet another executive order. This EO creates the National Energy Dominance Council, directing the new council to move quickly to increase domestic oil and gas production (see our companion post today for details). During comments with reporters at the EO signing, Trump vowed to complete the long-dead Pennsylvania Marcellus to New York State Constitution Pipeline! Trump’s own words: “We are going to get this done, and once we start construction, we’re looking at anywhere from nine to 12 months.”
Antero Resources plans increased drilling activity in 2025 amid strong production in West Virginia — Antero Resources Corp., the largest driller in West Virginia and a leading operator in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, released its fourth-quarter 2024 financial and operational results recently, announcing plans to ramp up drilling activity in 2025 following stable production and cost reductions. Antero reported net income of $150 million for the quarter, with adjusted net income totaling $181 million. The company achieved a 27% reduction in drilling and completion capital expenditures compared to the prior year, underscoring its commitment to cost efficiency.
Antero to Drill 50-55 New Wells, Spend $100M on New Leases in 2025 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its fourth quarter 2024 update last week. The company reports net production in 4Q24 averaged 3.43 Bcfe/d, up ever-so-slightly from 3.42 Bcfe/d in 4Q23. Natural gas production averaged 2.1 Bcf/d, a 7% decrease from the same period in 2023. Liquids (NGL) production averaged 217 MBbl/d, a 14% increase from the year-ago period. A little less gas, a little more liquids. Antero achieved a net income of $150 million and adjusted net income of $181 million. Additionally, the company realized a 27% reduction in drilling and completion capital expenditures compared to the prior year.
West Virginia sees surge in new shale drilling permits, with more planned with Antero's expansion -Shale industry officials are reporting a surge in the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus and Utica, with a total of 36 new permits granted—up from 24 just two weeks prior.West Virginia issued eight new permits last week, reinforcing the state’s role as a key hub for natural gas development. Seven of those permits went to EQT for a single pad in Wetzel County, while Antero Resources received one permit in Tyler County, according to Marcellus Drilling News.
EQT Working on Deals with Data Centers; MVP & Southgate Key Assets --- Marcellus Drilling News -- EQT Corporation, the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer after Expand Energy, delivered its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 update yesterday. The company, which drills solely in the Marcellus/Utica, produced 605 Bcfe of natural gas and equivalents during 4Q, which works out to be 6.58 Bcfe/d, despite curtailing 27 Bcfe (or 0.29 Bcfe/d, the same as 290 MMcf/d). Aside from the stats of what happened in 4Q24 and for the full year, much of the chatter in the update was about what is coming in 2025. EQT’s top brass said it is deep in discussions with multiple data centers and will likely have a few signed deals to provide gas to data center power plants by the end of 2025.’
MVP at Full Throttle, Strong Southeast Demand Help Lift Natural Gas Prices for EQT - EQT Corp. is not looking to invest in natural gas production growth in 2025 as it expects demand to eventually outpace supply and push prices higher in the coming years. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot XXXX daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. CFO Jeremy Knop said the company is completely unhedged in 2026 and beyond amid an “increasingly bullish set up” for prices. Underinvestment and scarce inventory depth in the Haynesville Shale, along with infrastructure constraints in Appalachia and no new pipeline capacity coming online in the Permian Basin until later next year, are likely to lift prices, EQT’s management team said Wednesday.
Virginia Legislators Pushing to Use Taxpayer Funds for Natural Gas Projects - Lawmakers from both parties are seeking to use state tax dollars to boost new natural gas infrastructure projects related to data centers and chicken processing plants, as a proposed spending plan is nearing completion before going to the governor for review. House Appropriations Chair Del. Luke Torian (D-Prince William) is including in the House budget proposal $15 million to provide “road extension, grading, and natural gas pipeline extension” for business site readiness improvements for a natural gas power plant and potential data center in Pulaski County, in rural Southwest Virginia. Del. Rob Bloxom (R-Accomack) is seeking up to $7.4 million in the House proposal for Chesapeake Utilities to extend natural gas from Maryland into Accomack County, Virginia, on the Eastern Shore to serve chicken processing plants owned by Perdue Chicken and Tyson Foods, as well as NASA’s Wallops Island facility, among other potential users. “These counties, what they’re telling us, is that they need money in order to put in the infrastructure for future economic growth, whether for the data center or some other industry that will come in,” said Torian. “Pulaski is perhaps not the only county that is in need of resources for infrastructure development, whether it be some level of energy design. They all need it.” Details of the proposal for Pulaski County are sparse. According to information included in the House proposal, the county would enter into memos of understanding with the state’s Department of Housing and Community Development to require “a dollar for dollar match of non-state resources for these site readiness improvements.” In Pulaski County, the state funding would also “help secure up to $3.0 billion in capital investment in the region through the construction of a data center and powerplant in the County,” the budget proposal says. In an interview, Torian said county officials “need money for infrastructure, so they can do economic development.” Dels. Jason Ballard and Jonathan Arnold, Republicans who represent the locality, said they didn’t have any details about the project. “Generally speaking, any time when we get money coming into [the county] that’s a good thing, but I just don’t know what it’s for,” Ballard said. The proposal comes as the state is wrestling with the high energy needs of, and the frequent community opposition to, data center development. Virginia’s non-partisan legislative research arm, called the Joint Legislative and Audit Review Commission, found that about 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic moves through Virginia data centers, which house large numbers of computer processors. Northern Virginia, birthplace of the internet, is home to the world’s largest concentration of data centers—largely because of access to fiber internet cables and a tax break.
TVA Green Lights New 500 MW Natural Gas Power Plant in Mississippi -Marcellus Drilling News - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally-owned electric utility corporation in the U.S. TVA’s service area covers all of Tennessee, portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and small areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. TVA is the sixth-largest power supplier and the largest public utility in the U.S. In 2021, MDN told you that TVA is spending over $1 billion to replace six coal-fired plants with natgas-fired turbines (see TVA Investing $1B to Build New Natgas-Fired Electric Plants). As part of the overall plan, in 2023, TVA proposed to build a new gas-fired plant at the site of a former privately operated power plant in Mississippi (see TVA Proposes New 500 MW Natural Gas Power Plant in Mississippi). Last Friday, TVA pulled the trigger and made a final investment decision to move forward with the project. Read More
DOE gives Louisiana LNG project conditional export approval - The Department of Energy issued a conditional approval for exports from a major liquefied natural gas export facility planned along the Louisiana coast — the first such green light since President Donald Trump took office last month. In a 67-page order Friday, the department said exports from the Commonwealth LNG project to countries that lack a free trade agreement with the U.S. “are likely to yield economic benefits to the United States, diversify global LNG supplies, and improve energy security for U.S. allies and trading partners.” DOE said its authorization of Commonwealth LNG is not likely to negatively affect the availability of natural gas to U.S. consumers or “result in natural gas price increases” and heightened price volatility, though federal analysts have projected a rise in gas prices. The conditional export permit comes as Trump has pledged to expand energy production, outlining in an executive order Friday his policy to “make America energy dominant.”“Today marks one of many steps that DOE will be taking to assure our future as a reliable energy supplier to the world and resume regular order to our regulatory responsibilities over natural gas exports,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.
Trump Grants First LNG Export License, Forms US Oil and Gas Energy Council - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Friday it has granted a liquefied natural gas export license to the Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana, the first approval of LNG exports after former President Joe Biden paused them early last year. The exports are approved to go to markets in Asia and Europe. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, whose agency is responsible for approving the shipments, said exporting U.S. LNG "strengthens the U.S. economy and supports American jobs while bolstering energy security around the world." The U.S. is trying to increase its LNG exports to help reduce Europe's dependency on Russian gas after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Trump ordered a lifting of the freeze on LNG export approvals the day he came into office for a second time on January 20. Commonwealth LNG, which has waited longer than any other company for its permit, wants to build a 9.5 million metric ton per annum export plant in Louisiana to sell to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the U.S. "Today's actions demonstrate that President Trump is prioritizing the American energy industry and we are both pleased and grateful to have achieved these important regulatory objectives," said Commonwealth CEO Farhad Ahrabi. The company is expecting to make a final investment decision in September 2025 as a result of the license and subject to regulatory approval. Commonwealth expects first LNG production from the project in early 2029. Two other LNG companies, Cheniere LNG.N and Energy Transfer, have said they plan to move full speed ahead with their plans to export the fuel. U.S. LNG exports are expected to double before the end of the decade, based on approvals that had been granted before Biden's pause. That has raised environmentalists' worries about the LNG boom's potential to boost carbon emissions, while some manufacturers and fuel-dependent industries are concerned it might spike domestic gas prices. Trump also signed an executive order in the Oval Office on Friday creating a new energy council to be led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, which will seek to expand U.S. output of oil and gas. The U.S. is already the world's largest producer of those fossil fuels. The President commented on how he plans to boost drilling and said more than 600 million acres of offshore federal waters are now open to oil and gas development, after Biden had taken them off the table. Trump said he was working on getting approval for the Constitution natural gas pipeline that would bring gas from Pennsylvania's drilling fields to New York, in order to bring down energy prices in the region. Williams Cos canceled the pipeline in 2020 following opposition from politicians and environmentalists in New York, and it is uncertain how it could be approved.
Commonwealth LNG Granted Long-Awaited – but Conditional – Permit to Transport 9.5 Mt/y Worldwide -Commonwealth LNG received a number of well-timed Valentine’s greetings from U.S. regulatory agencies Friday, pushing the blocked Gulf Coast export project closer to full authorization. Marking the first export permit granted under Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) granted non-free trade agreement (NFTA) export authorization to Commonwealth for up to 9.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) through 2050. After waiting five years for authorization, Kimmeridge Texas Gas LLC’s proposed Louisiana export project is now approved to ship cargoes to countries worldwide. NFTA permits are usually considered essential for large-scale LNG projects to receive financial backing, as most of the leading natural gas importers in the world are NFTA countries.
Commonwealth LNG Set to Make FID After Trump DOE, FERC Approvals --- Marcellus Drilling News -- On Friday, Commonwealth LNG achieved two significant milestones on the way to making a final investment decision (FID). The first was that the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a long-delayed (because of Biden) approval to export LNG to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries. The second is that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS). Kimmeridge Energy Management, the main investor behind the project, said these two important items pave the way for an FID in September of this year. Provided that happens, the first LNG production at the plant is expected to flow in the first quarter of 2029.
US approves LNG exports, forms energy council to boost oil and gas - President Trump has resumed LNG export approvals, which had been paused under former president Biden. The US Government has granted an LNG export licence to the Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana, marking the first such approval since the pause on LNG exports announced by the previous administration. The global energy market, particularly the Asia and Europe markets, stand to benefit from the decision. Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasised the move's benefits, noting that exporting US LNG will strengthen the US economy, support US jobs and enhance global energy security. The approval comes as the US seeks to increase exports to Europe to help the region reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the conflict in Ukraine. Commonwealth LNG plans to construct a 9.5 million tpa export plant in Louisiana. The company expects to make a final investment decision by September 2025, pending regulatory approval, with the first LNG production expected in early 2029. Commonwealth CEO Farhad Ahrabi said: “Today’s actions demonstrate that President Trump is prioritising the American energy industry, and we are both pleased and grateful to have achieved these important regulatory objectives.” Other LNG companies including Cheniere and Energy Transfer are also moving forward with their export plans. US LNG exports are projected to double by the end of the decade based on previously granted approvals. However, environmentalists have expressed concerns about the potential increase in carbon emissions due to the LNG boom, while some manufacturers fear a rise in domestic gas prices. Additionally, President Trump has established a new energy council led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to expand US oil and gas output. Trump also commented on his strategy to enhance drilling, revealing that more than 600 million acres of offshore federal waters are now available for oil and gas development. He is also seeking approval for the Constitution natural gas pipeline, which would transport gas from Pennsylvania to New York, aiming to lower energy prices in the region. However, the pipeline's future remains uncertain following its cancellation in 2020 due to opposition.
Cracking the Case: How Experts Are Measuring LNG Project Litigation Risks — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to join NGI senior LNG editor Jacob Dick and Arbo’s Tom Sharp, director of permitting intelligence, in a discussion about why despite some recent momentum under the Trump administration, litigation risk still looms for some U.S. LNG projects. After a year of regulatory slowdowns for LNG projects, 2025 has been full of agency shake-ups, policy changes and executive orders. But what does it mean for project development and future U.S. natural gas demand? With feed gas demand forecasts and major project financing hurdles on the line, what is going on in federal courts and on energy agency dockets is getting more attention than ever. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI, which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing locations across North America, works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.
Expansion of Corpus Christi LNG in Texas Starts Delivery -- Cheniere Energy Inc. has produced the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from a project expanding the Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) terminal in the namesake Texan city. CCL Stage 3 has seven midscale trains with an expected production capacity of over 10 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa), raising CCL’s output capacity to over 25 MMtpa from 10 trains. “First LNG production from the first train of the CCL Stage 3 Project was achieved in December 2024, and the first cargo of LNG was produced in February 2025”, Houston, Texas-based Cheniere said in its quarterly report. It plans to build two more mid-scale trains adjacent to the Stage 3 project for a further capacity addition of about 3 MMtpa. “In June 2024, we received a positive Environmental Assessment from the FERC and anticipate receiving all remaining necessary regulatory approvals for the project in 2025”, the report said. Citing new capacity unlocked from the expansion, Cheniere expects to surpass last year’s earnings. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is $6.5 billion-$7 billion, compared to the actual 2024 figure of $6.2 billion. Distributable cash flow this year is expected to be $4.1 billion-$4.6 billion, compared to the actual 2024 figure of $3.7 billion. “We expect 2025 to be another record year for LNG production as Stage 3 trains are completed, and we look forward to delivering financial results within these ranges and further enhancing the long-term value proposition of Cheniere”, commented president and chief executive Jack Fusco. Last year Cheniere exported a record 646 LNG cargoes, or 2.33 trillion British thermal units. Cheniere posted $977 million in net profit for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 and $3.25 billion for the full year. The figures were down 29 percent and 67 percent by year-ago comparisons, respectively. On a diluted basis, Q4 earnings per share landed at $4.33, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 per share. “The decreases were primarily attributable to approximately $599 million and $6.7 billion of unfavorable variances related to changes in fair value of our derivative instruments (before tax and non-controlling interests) for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2024, respectively, as compared to the corresponding 2023 periods”, Cheniere said. “The decreases were partially offset by lower provisions for income tax, as well as lower net income attributable to non-controlling interests during both periods”. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA dropped year-on-year by about $73 million for Q4 and $2.6 billion for 2024. “The decreases were primarily due to the moderation of international gas prices, resulting in lower total margins per MMBtu [million British thermal units] of LNG delivered, as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts during both 2024 periods as compared to the corresponding 2023 periods”. Revenue totaled $4.44 billion for Q4, down eight percent year-over-year, and $15.7 billion for 2024, down 23 percent against 2023. Cheniere declared a dividend of $0.5 per share for Q4, maintaining the previous rate. It ended the year with $2.64 billion in cash and cash equivalents, plus $552 million in restricted cash and cash equivalents. Current assets totaled $4.8 billion. Cheniere owed $4.44 billion in current liabilities as of year-end, including $351 million in current debt.
Cheniere Focuses Future LNG Expansions as Corpus Christi LNG Continues to Add U.S. Natural Gas Demand --Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to ride the “tailwinds” of a new administration and robust global LNG demand in 2025 as its Corpus Christi export project adds fresh natural gas demand to the domestic market, according to management. Aerial image of Corpus Christi LNG. Expand Houston-based Cheniere is continuing to hone in on growth and the next phases of its massive U.S. LNG platforms even as its Stage 3 expansion in South Texas ramps up. The first train of seven started production ahead of schedule at the end of last year, and has continued to ramp up through the first months of 2025. CEO Jack Fusco said the first cargo was produced from Train 1 earlier in the month and commissioning of the second train has already begun.
U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries to Export Terminals Continue Record Run — Federal regulators have approved Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Plaquemines export facility to produce more of the super-chilled fuel. (Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence.) The authorization allows the terminal, which is under construction in Louisiana, to produce up to 27.2 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG, or about 3.6 Bcf/d at peak capacity. The facility was designed to produce 20 Mt/y and previously was authorized for peak capacity of 24 Mt/y. Venture is not expanding the plant to achieve the production increase. Instead, it plans to rely on train efficiencies to boost output.
US NatGas Prices Jump 8% to 3-Week High as Cold Freezes Wells - (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Tuesday to a three-week high, as extreme cold in some parts of the country cut output by freezing oil and gas wells, while gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants reached records and forecasters predicted more cold weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.2 cents, or 7.6%, to settle at $4.007 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 24 for a second day in a row. That was the biggest daily percentage increase since Feb. 3 when prices soared by about 10%. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. With the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 3.5 bcfd over the last 12 days to a preliminary three-week low of 103.2 bcfd on Monday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22 before switching to near normal levels from February 23-March 5. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 146.4 bcfd this week to 129.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.0 bcfd on Monday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18. That LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global’s 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a fresh high of 1.4 bcfd on Sunday. Gas was trading at around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 7% to 25-Month High as Freeze Cuts Output (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a 25-month high on Wednesday as extreme cold in some parts of the country boosted demand for the fuel for heating and cut output by freezing oil and gas wells. Traders said prices also gained support on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27.3 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $4.280 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since December 2022. That put the contract up for a seventh day in a row for the first time since July 2021 and kept it in technically overbought territory for a second straight day for the first time since November 2024. With gas futures up 29% over the past seven days, stock prices of several of the biggest U.S. gas producers soared. Recent increases in gas prices coupled with a decline in oil futures cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, to 17 to 1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas. So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 20 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023). Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in February, up from 102.7 Bcf/d in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 Bcf/d in December 2023. But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 Bcf/d over the last 13 days to a preliminary four-week low of 100.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday. That compares with a daily record of 106.7 Bcf/d on February 6. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 Bcf/d so far in February, up from 14.6 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.2 Bcf/d on Tuesday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.0 Bcf/d on Monday. The LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit a fresh high of 1.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday. In other LNG news, LSEG noted flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bcf/d export plant in Louisiana were on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 1.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down from 2.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday and an average of 2.3 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Traders noted there were storms in Louisiana overnight but did not know of any possible impact from the storms on the plant.
Mother Nature’s Having Her Fun with Natural Gas Traders, Prices Intelligence on natural gas market fundamentals presented by NGI’s data and price analysts After back-to-back warm winters, a frigid January and the arctic blast penetrating deep into the United States have sent natural gas prices skyrocketing to levels not seen in years. Natural gas futures soared close to $4.40/MMBtu on Wednesday, lending support to prices 13 months out the curve. The December 2025 and January 2026 contracts crossed the $5.00 mark.
US natgas prices slide 3% on less cold forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday from a 25-month high in the prior session on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.8 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $4.152 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2022. Prices dropped on Thursday despite a federal report showing utilities pulled a little more gas out of storage than expected to heat homes and businesses during frigid weather last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 196 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 14. That was slightly bigger than the 188-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 58 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 145 bcf for this time of year. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 bcfd since hitting a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a preliminary four-week low of 100.0 bcfd on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.2 bcfd on Tuesday. The LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday.
US natgas prices climbs up 2% on frozen wells, record LNG flows - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday as extreme cold over the past couple of weeks cut output by freezing wells and as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants hit record highs. In addition, traders noted that colder-than-normal weather so far this year forced utilities to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles down to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.2 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $4.234 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a fourth day in a row for the first time since October 2024. The front-month closed at a 25-month high of $4.280 per mmBtu on February 19. For the week, the contract was up about 14%, rising for a third week in a row for the first time since November and gaining around 39% during that time. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through March 8. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 148.4 bcfd this week to 127.9 bcfd next week and 122.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a record 16.5 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday. The LNG daily feedgas record occurred as flows to Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd from Wednesday to Friday. Gas was trading at around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, which some analysts say could free up some Russian energy exports, the European Union said it will seek more gas from countries including the U.S. to replace Russian supplies, and expand renewable energy faster to cut its overall reliance on the fuel. The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Natural Gas is Still a Dirty Word, But It’s Here to Stay: WoodMac -- Natural gas will play a critical role in the global energy transition, serving as a bridge fuel between coal and renewables, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie. Despite concerns over emissions and affordability, gas is expected to remain a key part of the energy mix for decades, particularly in power generation, industrial processes, and transport. According to WoodMac, natural gas demand has surged 80% over the last 25 years, now accounting for nearly a quarter of global energy consumption. While electrification and renewables are expanding, they alone won’t be enough to meet rising global energy demand, especially in Asia and Europe. Gas provides flexibility, reliability, and a lower-carbon alternative to coal, which still powers 30% of the world’s energy needs. In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are expected to add up to 180 GW of new gas-fired power by 2050 to support economic growth. In China and India, natural gas demand is projected to rise 95 bcm by 2050, offering a practical path to reducing coal dependency. However, high LNG prices remain a key barrier to further adoption. Without a carbon price of $100/tonne, coal could remain the more attractive option for many Asian markets. Beyond power generation, natural gas is also enabling low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue hydrogen. While green hydrogen remains too expensive for large-scale deployment, blue hydrogen—produced from natural gas with CCS—will help drive early adoption. WoodMac forecasts 40 Mt of blue hydrogen capacity by 2050. However, the report warns that gas is still a “dirty” word in climate discussions due to methane emissions and its fossil fuel status. Addressing LNG supply chain emissions and scaling up low-carbon alternatives like biomethane and e-methane will be critical to securing its long-term role. WoodMac argues that governments must balance net-zero goals with energy security, ensuring that gas remains a viable option if renewables and emerging technologies fail to scale fast enough. With the next wave of LNG supply expected in 2026, market dynamics could shift, making gas more affordable and reinforcing its position as an essential transition fuel.
Green groups sue over Trump moves to expand offshore drilling - Conservation groups filed two legal challenges Wednesday to the Trump administration’s moves to shrink areas protected from offshore oil and gas development. In the first lawsuit, a coalition of local and national groups including the Center for Biological Diversity, Greenpeace, the Sierra Club and the Northern Alaska Environmental Center sued over Trump’s attempt to rescind Biden-era protections of 265 million acres of federal waters. Trump signed an order withdrawing the protections within his first hours in office. In his first term, Trump took similar action against Obama-era protections, but a federal judge ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act only authorizes presidents to block drilling in the affected areas rather than revoke previous presidents’ protections. A second lawsuit seeks to restore protections against drilling in the Arctic, filed by many of the same groups, with Earthjustice and the Natural Resources Defense Council representing them. The complaint specifically seeks to reinstate a 2021 decision affirming protections from nearly 130 million acres in the Arctic and Atlantic. “We defeated Trump the first time he tried to roll back protections and sacrifice more of our waters to the oil industry. We’re bringing this abuse of the law to the courts again,” Earthjustice managing attorney for oceans Steve Mashuda said in a statement. “Trump is illegally trying to take away protections vital to coastal communities that rely on clean, healthy oceans for safe living conditions, thriving economies, and stable ecosystems.” Trump pledged on the campaign trail to implement a “drill baby drill” energy policy and has spent his first weeks in office prioritizing new fossil fuel development and rolling back both Biden-era environmental protections and incentives for the renewable energy industry. His interior secretary, Doug Burgum, has acknowledged the threat of climate change but has expressed confidence that it can coexist with new oil and gas development through largely unproven carbon capture technology.
Trump admin approves massive Texas deepwater oil project -- The Trump administration granted a deepwater port license for a major oil export terminal off Texas’ coast, bolstering its push to send U.S. energy overseas.The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued a record of decision last week to Dallas-based Sentinel Midstream, giving it the green light to build a terminal about 30 miles offshore of Freeport, Texas. The Texas GulfLink project, if completed, could fill tankers with as much as 2 million barrels of crude oil a day.“This permitting milestone is a testament to the hard work, perseverance, and expertise of the Sentinel team,” Jeff Ballard, Sentinel’s CEO, said in a statement, adding that “Texas GulfLink is now well positioned to capitalize on strong market interest and advance as the premier offshore crude oil export facility in the United States.” Sentinel officials did not respond Tuesday to questions about how much the project will cost, when it could come online and what other permits it needs in order to begin construction.
Saudi Arabia’s Texas Refinery Just Made a Power Move – While some U.S. refiners are scaling back, Saudi Arabia’s Motiva Enterprises just made a power move. The Saudi Aramco-owned refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, has quietly expanded its capacity, now processing a record 654,000 barrels per day—officially making it the largest refinery in the United States above Exxon’s Beaumont and Marathon’s Galveston Bay. Motiva pulled this off without a flashy billion-dollar project—just good old-fashioned optimization, removing bottlenecks in the system to squeeze out more production. And they did it at a time when smaller, less efficient refineries are dropping like flies. LyondellBasell’s Houston plant is closing. Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery is shutting down. Unlike its smaller refining peers, Port Arthur is doubling down, proving that size absolutely matters in refining. Motiva’s expansion fits into a bigger industry shift, where mega-refineries are getting even bigger while smaller plants either shut down or pivot to biofuels. The rationale? If you can’t be nimble, be massive. And while U.S. refiners whine about demand uncertainties and ESG pressures, Aramco isn’t here to play defense—it’s here to dominate. The real question now is whether Motiva will finally pull the trigger on its long-rumored petrochemical expansion. Back in 2021, Aramco was considering pouring $6.6 billion into turning Port Arthur into a full-fledged petrochem hub—a move that would’ve put the plant even further ahead of its competition. That plan seemed to fizzle out, but given this latest expansion, it might just be back on the table. Motiva, of course, isn’t saying much—declining to comment so far when asked by media. But with oil demand holding strong, shuttered competition, and its parent company sitting on a cash pile the size of some national economies, it’s hard to imagine Port Arthur isn’t gearing up for more.
Permian Basin pipeline ruptures after M5.0 earthquake hits Texas - A natural gas pipeline in the Permian Basin, Texas, ruptured following an M5.0 earthquake near Toyah in Reeves County at 05:23 UTC on February 15, 2025 (22:53 LT, February 14), resulting in a fire. Emergency response teams were deployed to the site, and the fire was fully extinguished by the morning of February 15. The Permian Basin is a large sedimentary basin in the southwestern United States, primarily located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is one of the most prolific oil and natural gas-producing regions in the world. The rupture marks the second pipeline failure in the county within eight months and the third in 19 months, renewing concerns over the link between fracking activities and seismic events in the region. The last pipeline failure in Reeves County occurred on July 15, 2024, when a 61 cm (24 inches) natural gas pipeline ruptured approximately 275 m (300 yards) into the county. The epicenter of the February 15 earthquake was located 53 km (33 miles) west of Toyah, 85 km (53 miles) south of Carlsbad, and 133 km (83 miles) south of Artesia. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), approximately 352 000 people experienced light shaking, while 592 000 felt weak tremors. At least 16 aftershocks followed the main event over the next five hours, with magnitudes ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 and depths between 3.4 km and 7.1 km (4.4 to 7.1 miles). Seismic activity in Texas has been increasing over the past two decades, particularly in regions with extensive oil and gas operations. One of the primary factors contributing to this trend in the Permian Basin is wastewater injection, a byproduct of hydraulic fracturing. Unlike fracking, which involves short bursts of fluid injection to extract hydrocarbons, wastewater disposal is a continuous process that raises underground pressure over time, potentially reducing friction along pre-existing faults and triggering earthquakes. Studies by the USGS and Texas Seismological Network (TexNet) have established a strong correlation between wastewater disposal and seismic events. In response, the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), which oversees oil and gas operations, implemented restrictions in early 2023, halting deep-water reinjection in northern Culberson and Reeves counties, among the most seismically active areas in the Permian Basin. The RRC continues to monitor seismic activity and has tightened oversight of wastewater injection wells. Industry representatives have acknowledged the seismic risks associated with wastewater injection but argue that regulatory measures should balance safety with economic viability. The Permian Basin remains the largest oil- and gas-producing region in the U.S., and any restrictions on drilling and disposal activities could have big economic implications.
Trump’s oil ambitions face harsh economic and geologic realities - President Donald Trump wants to “unleash” American energy. The problem: U.S. oil production growth is starting to dwindle.The nation’s once-hot shale plays are maturing. It’s getting more expensive to get significant amounts of new oil out of the ground. Some observers expect production to level off in the coming years and then start to decline by the early 2030s.Soon enough, oil companies may need to “drill, baby, drill” just to keep up current production levels rather than boosting them. Trump is calling for “energy dominance,” yet for many in the oil patch the debate is not whether U.S. oil production is hitting its peak, but when and how fast. “We’re 17, 18 years into the U.S. shale story,” said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs, an Austin, Texas-based research firm that uses artificial intelligence to analyze the economics of wells. “It does have an end.”Right now, the U.S. oil industry is producing more crude than ever before — north of 13 million barrels a day — and the price of gasoline is slightly higher than $3 a gallon, hoveringnear a three-year low. So it may be hard to realize the type of production increases Trump suggested on the campaign trail, where he boasted that within 18 months he’d cut energy prices in half.“That presumes that you can press a button and get even more out of those rocks than ever for an extended period of time,” said Barry Rabe, a professor emeritus of environmental policy at the University of Michigan. Pulling that off, he said, is “sort of a triple bank shot.”When asked whether declining shale fields could interfere with Trump’s “energy dominance” plans, a White House spokesperson sent a statement saying “President Trump took decisive action on day one to immediately reverse the shortsighted policies of the previous administration and unleash American energy.”Nationally, oil production might creep up in the next couple of years, driven by drilling in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. But other once-booming plays in places like Colorado, South Texas and North Dakota are flat or declining.Barring a big technological revolution in drilling — some suggest leaps in AI might deliver one — the United States’ position as an oil powerhouse could be challenged in the years ahead. Some analysts say it will be 10 years or more before production starts to plateau. Others say it has already started. For its part, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted last week that the country’s oil production will grow a little more than 3 percent in 2025 to 13.7 million barrels a day, but then climb less than 1 percent in 2026. The report reversed a previous forecast that production would drop slightly in 2026. EIA’s outlook last week also suggested that Trump’s price-cutting goal might be tough to achieve. The agency projected oil prices dropping by 2026 because of reduced demand and increased foreign production, but by only about 20 percent, compared to 2024. EIA projected natural gas prices could nearly double in the same time frame.
Drill Baby Drill Is Dead, Oil Executives Say - Despite Trump’s full-throttle push to “unleash” U.S. energy, Permian oil producers are keeping their foot on the brakes. At a Houston conference this week, energy executives made it clear that while production is still growing, the breakneck pace of the past decade is history. In 2025, Permian output is expected to rise by about 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from last year’s 380,000-bpd increase. That’s a 25% slowdown, and it’s not just because of market conditions—it’s intentional. On Thursday, Chevron’s Barbara Harrison summed up the mood to Reuters: “We still expect to see growth in the Permian, but we expect to see that moderated.” In other words, U.S. shale is no longer in “drill, baby, drill” mode. Instead of chasing volume, companies are focused on keeping costs in check and delivering returns to investors—a stark contrast to the reckless production boom of the 2010s. Even though the U.S. remains the world’s top oil producer at 13.2 million bpd, capital discipline is the new mantra. Coterra Energy’s Shannon Flowers spoke of the irony: “The Trump administration wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers.” Refiners like Delek are bracing for potential supply constraints as these producers hold back. And with Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports looming, there’s even more uncertainty in the mix. Bottom line: The days of unbridled U.S. shale expansion are over, oil executives say. The industry is moving cautiously, balancing supply growth with financial discipline. Trump may want a flood of new production, but Wall Street wants profits. Right now, Wall Street is winning.
Kinder Morgan closes on US$640 million acquisition of a natural gas gathering and processing system from Outrigger Energy II - Kinder Morgan, Inc. has announced that its subsidiary, Hiland Partners Holdings LLC, closed on its previously announced US$640 million acquisition of a natural gas gathering and processing system in North Dakota from Outrigger Energy II LLC. The acquisition includes a 270 million ft3/d processing facility and a 104 mile, large-diameter, high-pressure rich gas gathering header pipeline with 350 million ft3/d of capacity connecting supplies from the Williston Basin area to high-demand markets. The gathering and processing system is backed by long-term contracts with commitments from major customers in the basin. “We are pleased to have completed this strategic acquisition and to start integrating these assets with our existing Hiland gas footprint,” said KMI Natural Gas Midstream President Tom Dender. “This acquisition expands our transportation and processing services, allowing us to meet the growing needs of our customers.” KMI expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to its shareholders, with a 2025 Adjusted EBITDA multiple of approximately 8 times on a full-year basis. Adjusted EBITDA does not include approximately US$20 million of expected cash payments in 2025 that receive deferred revenue recognition. With this transaction, KMI expects to reduce future capital expenditures needed to accommodate the growth of its existing Bakken customers.
Pemex Reports Illegal Boarding -- In a statement posted on its website this week, which was translated from the original Spanish, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported that, on February 13, “a group of approximately eight individuals not affiliated with the public company illegally boarded the Zaap-D satellite platform of the Ku Maloob Zaap Production Asset”. Pemex revealed in the statement that the individuals “stole radio devices, as well as various tools and self-contained breathing equipment”. “For this reason, Pemex physical security personnel in Ciudad del Carmen coordinated support with personnel from the Navy (Semar) in order to activate the General Protocol for Attention to Events in the Marine and Coastal Facilities of Pemex Exploration and Production,” the company said in the statement. “It should be noted that the staff of this public company did not suffer any physical harm; only two Pemex workers were evacuated from the platform, due to a possible stress scenario resulting from the incident, so they were transferred to the Pemex General Hospital in Ciudad del Carmen, for their corresponding medical evaluation,” Pemex added. Pemex said in the statement that it reinforced security measures in the Campeche “with a greater number of physical security agents and also coordinated with the Semar to increase the number of patrols with vessels”. In its latest maritime security threat advisory (MSTA), which was released on February 17, Dryad Global said “piracy in the Gulf of America/Mexico, particularly around the Bay of Campeche, has been on the rise, with oil platforms and vessels becoming prime targets”. Dryad noted in its MSTA that the Mexican Navy has deployed numerous naval vessels, aircraft, and personnel in Operation Refuerzo to combat threats. “They recently have shifted their security strategy from relying on vessels to incorporating more drones for improved coverage and response times across the Gulf,” Dryad added. “Despite these efforts, the military’s response has been criticized for delays, which could be attributed to budget constraints and logistical challenges,” Dryad went on to state. Dryad’s latest MSTA gives Mexico a “substantial” risk and impact rating. That sits in the middle of Dryad’s risk and impact rating system, which goes from low, to moderate, to substantial, to severe, to critical, the company’s MSTA shows. Rigzone has contacted Mexico’s Secretaria de Marina and Secretaria de la Relaciones Exteriores for comment on Pemex’s statement and Dryad’s MSTA. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone’s request. Pemex states on its site that it is “the most important company in Mexico and one of the largest in Latin America”. The business notes on its site that it carries out “extensive exploration and extraction projects every year”. The company has six refineries, six petrochemical complexes, and nine gas processing complexes, according to its site. Dryad Global notes on its site that it offers a comprehensive suite of maritime intelligence and cyber solutions. The site highlights that the company is impartial and that its CEO, Corey Ranslem, has 27 years of experience in the public and private sector working with ports, cargo lines, cruise lines, and large yachts. Ranslem is a veteran of the U.S. Coast Guard and is a recognized expert in U.S. Federal Court in maritime security, the site states.
Trump puts the spotlight anew on a major Alaska gas project. Will it make a difference? (AP) — Since his election, President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed support for a major natural gas pipeline in Alaska — comments that have drawn fresh attention to a project that's floundered for years despite support from state leaders.Trump mentioned the pipeline at a news conference with Japan’s prime minister earlier this month, drawing praise from Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy and U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, both Republicans. As proposed, the nearly 810-mile (1,300-kilometer) pipeline would funnel gas from Alaska’s vast North Slope to port, with an eye largely on exports to Asian countries.Critics, however, see this as a repackaged version of a decades-old effort that has struggled to gain traction. Hurdles include the cost — an estimated $44 billion for the pipeline and related infrastructure — competition from other projects and questions about its economic feasibility. One state senator said Alaska has put around $1 billion over the years into trying to get a pipeline built. The Alaska project calls for a pipeline from the gas fields of the North Slope to south-central Alaska. A liquefaction facility in Nikiski, southwest of Anchorage, would process and export the liquefied natural gas. Trump, following his election, said his administration would ensure the project gets built “to provide affordable energy to Alaska and allies all over the world.” He highlighted it as a priority in an Alaska-specific executive order aimed at spurring resource development he signed on his first day in office. And during a recent news conference with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan, Trump touted the Alaska project's relative proximity to that country and said there were talks “about a joint venture of some type.” He did not elaborate.Japan's Foreign Ministry, in a statement, said the meeting between the leaders “was carried out in a way that would be beneficial to both sides and confirmed that the two nations will cooperate bilaterally toward strengthening energy security, including increasing LNG exports to Japan.” It did not specifically reference the Alaska project.Trump was a booster of the project during his first term. In 2017, he was there for the signing in Beijing of an agreement between then-Alaska Gov. Bill Walker and representatives of Chinese companies that called for the parties to work together on elements of the project. That effort ultimately fizzled: Walker, an independent, left office in 2018, and his successor, Dunleavy, took the project in a different direction. The project has a history of new governors taking a different tack than their predecessors; Walker did it, too. Walker called Trump’s recent actions significant: “What he has done is a tremendous boost to the awareness of the project worldwide.” Currently, there is no way to bring Alaska's large gas reserves to market. The focus for decades by major companies on the North Slope has been on producing more profitable oil. The 800-mile (1,280-kilometer) trans-Alaska oil pipeline — which began operating in 1977 — is the state's economic lifeline. Gas that occurs with deposits of oil is reinjected into the fields.State leaders are facing the likelihood that Alaska could have to import gas to help meet the needs of its most populous region due to production constraints in the aging Cook Inlet basin in south-central Alaska, hundreds of miles (kilometers) from the North Slope. Cook Inlet is Alaska's oldest producing oil and gas basin, dating to the 1950s.Even a year ago, the idea of importing gas was widely seen by lawmakers as a humiliating possibility. But it's now being met with resignation and hopes by some that it might simply be a short-term solution until a gas line is built.Alaska House Majority Leader Chuck Kopp, a Republican, said Alaskans “need to be hopeful" and cautioned against negative thinking.“We need to watch how we talk because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and an energy project of this size, if it was successful, would be transformative to the economic security of our state,” he said.Roger Marks, an oil and gas economist in Alaska, said he can't see the pipeline project happening and said more energy should be devoted to preparing for possible imports. “Creating these false expectations has just been a big distraction from what needs to be done,” he said.
Russia Dangles Arctic Oil to Lure Back U.S. Firms -The Kremlin is signaling that it’s once again open for business with American oil companies—if the political winds shift. Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev told reporters ahead of talks in Saudi Arabia that Moscow sees a return of U.S. firms as inevitable, arguing that American majors once thrived in Russia and they would be unwise to ignore the opportunity again. The pitch comes as Russia faces mounting pressure to fill the void left by Western oilfield services giants like Halliburton and Baker Hughes, which exited after sanctions took hold. While President Putin has ordered the development of domestic drilling and exploration technologies, Russian experts admit the country remains critically dependent on Western equipment. Hydraulic fracturing technology, vital for boosting well output, is still sourced from “unfriendly” countries, with key components like rotary steerable systems being 100% imported. Dmitriev emphasized that joint U.S.-Russia projects, particularly in the Arctic, would be mutually beneficial. For now, ExxonMobil remains the only major U.S. oil firm tied to Russian assets, albeit under strained circumstances. The company was forced to abandon its stake in the Sakhalin-1 project after sanctions hit, yet Moscow has twice extended the deadline for the sale, now pushing it to 2026. While the Kremlin is offering access to vast natural resources, Western firms will be weighing the risks. Russia’s reliance on foreign technology and ongoing economic isolation make reentry anything but simple—even with a warm invitation.
Russia and US eye joint Arctic energy projects after Saudi talks - Russia and the United States discussed possible cooperation on energy projects in the Arctic at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, a top Russian negotiator told POLITICO.Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said the economic conversations had been about broad strokes, but that the two sides had discussed some “specific areas of cooperation.”“It was more a general discussion — maybe joint projects in the Arctic. We specifically discussed the Arctic,” Dmitriev said by phone as he boarded a flight home after the talks in Riyadh.The negotiations, which sidelined Ukraine and Europe, have sparked angst and urgency in key European capitals as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin look set to decide on Ukraine’s future without substantial input from Kyiv or its Western allies.
G7 Seeks to Disrupt Russian Exports With Tighter Oil Price Cap -- The Group of Seven is looking to send a big anti-Russia message on Feb. 24, the three-year anniversary of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with a potential tightening of an oil price cap intended to further hurt revenue for Russia's war machine. Bloomberg has revealed a G7 draft statement Tuesday calling for member nations to collectively redraw the price limit, which is currently set at $60 a barrel for crude oil. The document spells out pressure for Russia to "incentivize it to negotiate a meaningful peace" in Ukraine; however, it's anything but clear whether this is being called for in cooperation with Trump officials, who are engaged in direct talks with Moscow. The draft at one point references "troops and resources on the ground, coupled with robust international oversight to monitor agreed-upon lines," Bloomberg writes. But based on the wording, it does seem a last-ditch parallel effort to jump-start a peace arrangement with Moscow, as European nations in particular seek a 'seat at the table' - given both Zelensky and EU officials were completely cut out of Tuesday's meetings with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia.According to more of the content: The draft indicates the allies would “recognize” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s “readiness to engage in talks to end the war,” while warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms for peace “have so far amounted to Ukraine’s complete capitulation.” The draft shows the allies are planning to meet with Zelenskiy on Feb. 24. Allies will call, according to the draft, for a “common sense peace that is fair, a peace that lasts,” which would entail “a durable security guarantee.”The initial oil price cap by the Western allies, first implemented in December 2022, proved too easy for Russia to work around, as India and China have remained the biggest buyers of Russian crude, and have proven not so compliant. The outgoing Biden administration in December then sought to ratchet sanctions on Russian oil, including sanctions on Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two Russian oil firms which together account for 25% of exports. Middlemen who supply Russian oil have also been targeted. This new planned G7 initiative would aim to severely disrupt Russian oil exports to India and China, and if successful could give Trump's team more leverage in negotiations with Moscow. But Bloomberg also notes: The allies will maintain their line that any negotiation to end the war “must involve Ukraine’s full participation,” and leave it open to pursuing Euro-Atlantic integration. It’s hard to be sure what tightening or adapting the cap would look like in practice. While a lower price could be one option, another could be to try to bolster enforcement of the current measure. During a late Tuesday afternoon press Q&A from Mar-a-Lago, Trump blasted critics of his peace plan, saying "I hear they're upset about not having a seat. Well, they've had a seat for three years." This was in response to Ukrainians feeling 'betrayed' by being left out of current talks with Moscow. Meanwhile, there are reports saying Trump and Putin could finally meet face-to-face by month's end, as the sides potentially progress toward a firm deal.
EU envoys approve new Russia sanctions package - European Union ambassadors approved on Wednesday the latest package of sanctions against Russia, banning Russian aluminum imports and imposing new export bans on Moscow.This 16th package is now expected to be approved by EU ministers at a regular meeting next Monday, the three-year mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.It includes new listings against shadow fleet vessels, export bans on chemicals, chrome and other products used in precision machine tools, as well as a ban on servicing oil and gas refineries, two EU diplomats said. They were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door discussions. Despite last-minute concerns expressed by Greece, EU countries agreed to stop imports of Russian aluminum.
Will Europe return to Putin's gas? - The first proper winter in three years had already reignited energy debates. With temperatures frigid, winds weak and Asian competition for supplies fierce, the spot price at the Dutch Transfer Title Facility (TTF), Europe’s gas-trading hub, hit €58 ($61) per megawatt hour (MWh) on February 10th, its highest in two years (see charte). Then, two days later, came Donald Trump’s announcement that negotiations over an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine would start “immediately”. Six days after that America held talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia. Little surprise, then, that some European officials are eyeing Russian gas. Lower energy bills might revive Europe’s industry and placate households. Jari Stehn of Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts that an end to the war could lead to a 0.5% rise in European GDP, with most of that coming from cheaper gas. Renewed flows could also encourage Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal and then stick to it, proponents suggest. Hungary and Slovakia are making the case. In a recent interview with The Economist, Friedrich Merz, who is likely soon to be chancellor of Germany, said that there would be no return to Russian gas “for the time being”, but conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility. Any such deal would represent an astonishing turnaround. The European Commission’s position is that it is “not making any links” between the restart of Russian flows and Ukrainian peace talks. Indeed, its stated ambition is to import no Russian gas or oil at all by 2027, so as to reduce dependence on its hostile neighbour. Most gas deliveries ceased in 2022, when Russia closed down Nord Stream 1, its main pipeline to Europe; another conduit, running through Ukraine, ceased to function on January 1st this year. The EU now receives just 10% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% in 2021. Russia, meanwhile, cannot redirect most of its supplies, which takes a heavy financial toll. In 2022 sales of the fuel accounted for 13% of its federal budget. Now they account for just 8%. In 2023 Gazprom, the country’s state-owned gas giant, posted its first loss since 1999. Ultimately, the decision about whether to turn on the taps will be made by countries at both ends of the pipelines and those the conduits traverse: Russia, Germany and Ukraine, as well as a few other eastern European states. Their leaders will come under severe pressure from other countries, too. Who is likely to prevail? At cruising speed the European Union consumes 320bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year. The bloc’s storage capacity, at around 115 bcm, is equivalent to a third of that. These reserves were nearly full when winter started. Since then, cold weather and supply snags have forced the EU to burn more gas than expected. Its storage is now only 44% full, compared with 66% at the same time last year. Analysts expect it to fall to the high-30% range by the end of winter, forcing heavy users, such as chemical makers and smelters, to scale back. Industrial output across the EU, already weak, would surely contract further. A bigger problem will arrive in summer. EU rules require storage to be 90% full by November 1st. It is typically replenished from April to October. This year Europe will have to buy more than usual—just when Asian importers are also rushing to restock. Little extra supply exists: a wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America and Qatar is expected, but most will arrive next year. As a result, the price of gas for delivery this summer is above that for next winter, an anomaly that makes it unprofitable to store the fuel. Germany’s regulator is mulling subsidies to encourage storage. Some countries want to relax the EU‘s storage target; the European Commission is drafting a plan to that effect. Hungary and Slovakia still receive piped Russian flows from Turkey. They and a few others, including Austria, probably also welcome regasified Russian LNG that flows through northern Europe. But they now pay more for their fuel, supply of which is less certain than before. Resuming flows via Ukraine, which were paused at the start of the year, would help them. Doing so would also probably push down prices across Europe by reducing competition for supplies. Since Mr Trump’s remarks about a negotiated peace, prices on the TTF have fallen by 9%. Just reinstating the 15bcm the Ukrainian conduit carried in 2023—well below its maximum—could bring TTF prices down by a third from their recent peak, says Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University. MUFG, a bank, suggests prices could halve again by 2026 were flows through Ukraine to rise from their low level in 2023. Ukraine is adamant that it will not renew its deal with Russia, but workarounds are being studied. Slovakia’s national gas firm is establishing a subsidiary in Ukraine and applying for a transport licence, which may enable shipments from Russia. In a swap agreement with Russia, some of that gas may be labelled Azerbaijani, to help address Ukraine’s concerns.
U.S. LNG Flows Rise as Asian Buyers Grab Winter Spot Cargoes — U.S. LNG exports are continuing to ramp up through February, despite a seeming drop in interest from European buyers. U.S. volumes on the water are set to reach 2.29 Mt by Feb. 23, a 0.19 Mt week/week increase, according to Kpler predictive data. The increase was driven by Japanese and South Korean buyers shoring up supplies, as well as portfolio traders sending cargoes to East Asia.
- 2.29 million tons (Mt): U.S. LNG exports are continuing to ramp up through February, despite a seeming drop in interest from European buyers. U.S. volumes on the water are set to reach 2.29 Mt by Feb. 23, a 0.19 Mt week/week increase, according to Kpler predictive data. The increase was driven by Japanese and South Korean buyers shoring up supplies, as well as portfolio traders sending cargoes to East Asia.
- 43.4%: Meanwhile, European LNG imports appear to be slowing down as traders weigh policy changes on storage requirements and Ukrainian peace talks. European Union (EU) storage withdrawals have outpaced previous years, reaching 43.4% of capacity as of Monday (Feb. 17). That’s more than 20% lower than the same time last year, according to NGI calculations of Gas Infrastructure Europe data. However, Europe is set to see a nearly 1 Mt week/week drop in imports, according to Kpler predictive data.
- 10 Bcm: Last year, Russian pipeline supplies transported through Ukraine met around 4% of the EU’s total natural gas supply. The end of a transit agreement with Russia’s PJSC Gazprom in December briefly spiked prices as traders worried about a supply shortfall. Now the opposite may be happening. Ukraine has gauged European interest in using its infrastructure to transport gas from Azerbaijan, while U.S.-led talks with Russia have sparked speculation about a potential return of Russian supplies. Either way, Rystad estimated a return of flows through Ukraine could displace 10 Bcm of EU LNG demand this year.
- $13: Storage levels and impacts to renewable generation kept the prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract climbing over the past several weeks, reaching as high as the mid-$17/MMBtu mark last week. However, prices appear to be softening as storage forecasts firm. The European Commission is reportedly considering exemptions for storage requirements for some members, while Engie SA estimates the bloc could weather winter with 80% storage capacity, according to Bloomberg. Rystad Energy analysts estimated TTF spot prices could average $13.00-13.50 through the summer before increasing near the end of the year.
3 cargoes: Bangladesh could become a destination for U.S. LNG cargoes diverted from the ongoing trade dispute with China. A unit of the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corp. (Petrobangla) has launched a tender for three LNG shipments in March as summer heat and Rammadan power demand are expected to spike. Petrobangla has been issuing tenders and buying at least one U.S. spot cargo from Chinese companies since September, according to Kpler data. In January, the firm signed a tentative agreement for up to 5 Mt/y from the developing Argent LNG project in Louisiana.
Europe’s Growing Need for LNG Seen Having Limited Impact on U.S. Natural Gas Prices This Summer --Europe is expected to take in far more U.S. LNG this year to replenish its depleted natural gas stockpiles and to help offset the loss of demand from Chinese buyers looking to avoid reciprocal tariffs levied against imports of the super-chilled fuel from America. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. A cold winter, lower wind output and geopolitical tensions have left European natural gas inventories at lower levels than in years past. Kpler is forecasting a need for the European Union (EU) to inject more than 50 billion cubic meters, or about 1.8 Tcf, of natural gas this year in order to meet the bloc’s storage targets. That is higher than in the previous two restocking seasons. The continent also is expected to need more than 17 million tons (Mt) of additional LNG this year to meet its storage goals, according to Kpler Insight’s Laura Page, manager of LNG and natural gas.
LNG, Power Segments Help Shield TotalEnergies During Bumpy End to 2024 - TotalEnergies SE is still waiting to secure financing to restart construction at its long-delayed Mozambique LNG project in Africa. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures contract settles for daily market intelligence. The company is standing by for three export agencies to fulfill financing before it can lift a force majeure declared on the work amid violence in the region in 2021. CEO Patrick Pouyanné said he expects the U.S. Export-Import Bank to confirm $4.7 billion of financing in the coming weeks. He added that funding for the $20 billion, 12.9 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility from the UK government was less certain as it continues to transition away from fossil fuels.
Oil Spill in the River Wandle | Merton Council Newsroom - A spokesperson for Merton Council said: “The council is aware of a diesel spill from Croydon that has polluted parts of the River Wandle – particularly in Watermeads Nature Reserve, Mitcham – with some wildlife covered in oil. “The Environment Agency (EA) is onsite leading a multiagency response, of which we are a part. “The London Fire Brigade has been attempting to contain the spill and Thames Water is working on cleaning efforts. “The public is advised not to touch the water, nor allow pets into the water. “In addition, residents should not feed wildlife in the waterway as that will encourage them to ingest contamination. “An investigation will be led by the EA. “The council will provide an update when it has more information.” Updated: Wednesday 19 February 2025 at 7.30pm A spokesperson for Merton Council said: “The Environment Agency (EA) – leading the response to the oil spill affecting the River Wandle – continues to work with Thames Water to clean the water system and to also capture oil before it makes further progress in the river. “The EA, RSPB and National Trust are monitoring effects on wildlife, including a small number of wildfowl which have been contaminated. Fish have been so far unaffected. “Residents are reminded to keep away from the contamination and to prevent pets entering the water. “Investigations into the spill are ongoing.”
In a major shift, Japex to prioritise oil and gas investment through 2030 (Reuters) - Japan Petroleum Exploration is prioritising investment in oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) through 2030 - revising an earlier plan to aggressively expand its renewables businesses, its president said. "For now, the investment focus will remain on oil and gas exploration and production... as securing a fair return from renewable energy sources such as offshore wind is challenging due to rising costs," President Michiro Yamashita told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. Other global peers have also scaled back renewables investments due to lower returns. At the same time, profits from oil and gas have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply and propelled energy prices higher. In 2022, Japex set a goal of having its profits split equally between E&P and other businesses by the 2030 financial year to support the energy transition towards carbon neutrality. Yamashita said, however, that the current ratio of E&P contributing 70%-80% of earnings will likely remain unchanged through 2030, driven by expansion in the U.S. and Norway. He added that Japex could selectively invest in non-oil and gas segments if returns are viable. Japex's original plan called for E&P investment of 230 billion yen ($1.5 billion) over nine years. But the company now expects to invest 1.5 times that amount or even more as current crude prices exceed the plan's assumed $50 a barrel by a large margin. "My biggest challenge now is acquiring a tight oil operator business in the U.S. and building an investment structure for sustainable profits," Yamashita said, adding that the company would like to secure a deal this year or in 2026. Investment will likely be capped at $300 million per project, reflecting lessons from past losses on large investments and Japex's exit from a Canadian oil sands project, he said. Japex wants to strike a balance between shareholder returns, financial soundness and investment discipline, Yamashita said. In Norway, Japex is seeking to boost profit by expanding production at an existing project and with further exploration. Yamashita said the Japanese company views the Trump administration's energy policy as enhancing predictability and stability, making it "favourable" for them. Given Trump's plan to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, the company aims to gradually acquire gas assets, he said. But the Alaska LNG project, which Trump supports, is not a realistic investment proposition due to its unclear economics and large scale, he said.
NOSDRA signs pact to tackle oil spill in Niger Delta -- The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has moved to curb oil spillage in the Niger Delta region and other oil-producing areas across Nigeria. The agency signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with F1 Consulting in Abuja on Thursday to strengthen oil spill response and training NOSDRA personnel. The agreement is aimed at enhancing the agency’s effectiveness in mitigating environmental pollution in oil-producing communities. Speaking at the signing, NOSDRA’s Director-General, Mr. Chukwuemeka Woke, emphasized the agency’s dedication to fulfilling its mandate. He expressed optimism that the collaboration would yield significant results in protecting communities affected by oil spills. “With the establishment and signing of this MoU, we believe this will go a long way in solving the problem of pollution and oil spillages in our various communities,” Woke said. He called on oil companies and stakeholders to support the agency’s efforts and ensure prompt reporting of spills instead of withholding crucial information. In his remarks, Mr. Jude Ndubisi, Lead Consultant of F1 Consulting, noted that the partnership seeks to institutionalize Nigeria’s national oil spill contingency plan at the grassroots level, particularly within host communities. “The national spill contingencies plan is the primary document that talks about spill response strategies as a country. “This document for a very long time has not been institutionalised down to the host communities. “So, we are trying to build a partnership and synergy with NOSDRA to bring the provisions of the national spill contingency plan down to the communities where the oil installations exist,” he said. He further stressed the importance of collaboration between oil license holders, government agencies, and local communities to enhance environmental preservation. Also speaking, Mrs. Katherine George, NOSDRA’s Director of Legal Services, described the MoU as being in line with the agency’s core mandate of ensuring zero tolerance for oil spillage. “We believe this MoU will accomplish NOSDRA’s goals and mission of achieving zero oil spillage in the country,” she said.
Suriname Seeks 1.5 Billion Dollars to Fund Oil Project --Suriname’s state oil company needs to find $1.5 billion in funding this year in order to be able to take part in the development of the Gran Morgu deposit, Reuters hasreported, noting the project got a final investment decision late last year.Staatsolie is already talking with banks, the managing director of the company told Reuters, and “They're very eager to do it.”The Gran Morgu deposit lies in Block 58—an offshore block explored by TotalEnergies and APA Corp. The French supermajor announced a massive investment plan of $10.5 billion for the block in a perceived bid to repeat Exxon’s success in Suriname’s neighbor Guyana. The oil reserves in the area are estimated at some 750 million barrels, lying in depths between 100 and 1,000 meters. According to Suriname’s state oil company the project could have a productive life of 20 to 25 years.The total costs of developing the Gran Morgu deposit have been estimated at $12.2 billion, with Staatsolie’s share of this total at $2.4 billion, of which around half needs to be committed this year. First oil from the field is expected in 2028. TotalEnergies has already commissioned the construction of a floating production, storage and offloading vessel for Gran Morgu. The vessel will have a capacity of 200,000 barrels daily, which would make it one of the French company’s biggest, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said last October.Crude oil discoveries in Suriname have opened access to some 2.4 billion barrels in reserves, Wood Mackenzie analysts have estimated. The consultancy also reported that the South American nation holds some 12.5 trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves. A total of nine offshore discoveries have been made in the South American country in the last six years but commercial development of any of them is still in the future.Iraq: Kurdish oil export ban cost $19 billion - Iraq is working with the Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve technical issues that have blocked oil exports to Turkey for nearly two years, causing the country losses estimated at $19 billion, the Iraqi Foreign Minister confirmed. Fouad Hussein, in an interview with “Bloomberg” during his participation in the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany, relaunched in the homeland by “Iraqi news”. “The legislative framework has been established, but now there are a number of technical hurdles that need to be resolved between the oil companies, the federal government and the regional government before exports can resume,” Hussein said. The main issue in the discussion is the volume of exports and the number of barrels to be allocated for domestic consumption. According to Hussein, oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan stands at around 300 barrels per day, while the Kurdish government estimates its domestic needs – including electricity generation – at around 120.000 barrels per day. However, the federal government in Baghdad believes that a lower volume could be sufficient to cover the region's domestic consumption. Iraq's Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul-Ghani, announced that oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan will resume in the coming days. During the Iraqi-British Business Forum in Baghdad, Abdul-Ghani said that Baghdad will receive about 300 barrels per day from Iraqi Kurdistan. A decisive step in the resumption of exports was the approval by the Iraqi parliament, in early February, of an amendment to the general budget law, which resolved the dispute between the federal government and the KRG over the management of oil resources. Thanks to this agreement, oil extracted in the autonomous region will be able to be exported again through Turkey, restoring one of the main sources of income for the Iraqi economy.
ADNOC Gas Delivers Record $2.84 Billion Placement -- Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. PJSC (ADNOC) achieved Friday what it said is the biggest placement on the Abu Dhabi exchange, raising about $2.84 billion from issuing 3.1 billion shares in its integrated gas processing arm to institutional investors. The so-called marketed offering, the first in the United Arab Emirates according to ADNOC, was priced at AED 3.4 ($0.93) per share, about 43 percent higher than ADNOC Gas PLC’s initial public offering (IPO) price of AED 2.37 in March 2023. Raising around $2.5 billion and resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $50 billion, the IPO was the largest on the Abu Dhabi bourse then according to ADNOC. Friday’s offering, which attracted Gulf and international investors, represents four percent of ADNOC Gas’ issued and outstanding share capital and will raise its free float to 9 percent headline, ADNOC said in an online statement. ADNOC retains an 86 percent stake in ADNOC Gas. “A higher free float is also expected to provide a pathway towards inclusion in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Market Index and the Financial Times Stock Exchange Emerging Market Index, which may take place at the next quarterly review, subject to ADNOC Gas meeting all the relevant inclusion criteria”, ADNOC said. “Index inclusion of ADNOC Gas would contribute to the diversification of the Company’s investor base and significantly broaden awareness of its value proposition”. The offering was oversubscribed 4.4 times, ADNOC said, noting the final offer price represented a five percent discount to ADNOC Gas’ closing price Thursday. ADNOC expects settlement February 26. BofA Securities, Citi, EFG-Hermes, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC and International Securities acted as joint global coordinators and joint bookrunners. ADNOC chief financial officer Khaled Al Zaabi said, “The exceptional demand and competitive discount provided by the international and domestic investor community reflects the strong confidence in ADNOC Gas’ track record and growth prospects”. In 2024 ADNOC Gas achieved its highest-ever yearly net profit at $5 billion, driven by natural gas demand in the UAE. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2024 totaled $1.38 billion, ADNOC Gas’ highest quarterly result since its public listing in 2023, it reported February 6, 2025. Annual sales volumes grew two percent to 3,616 million MMBtu. ADNOC Gas supplies about 60 percent of the UAE’s sales gas needs, as well as supplies over twenty countries, according to the company. Adjusted revenue for 2024 rose seven percent year-on-year to $24.43 billion. “The company’s strong top-line performance for 2024 translated into a strong EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of 14 percent to $8.65 billion with a high, stable margin of 35 percent”, ADNOC Gas said. For the fourth quarter, adjusted revenue was $6.06 billion and EBITDA $2.28 billion. “The robust improvement was driven by several factors including a richer mix of gas, producing more liquids, and improved commercial terms in the domestic market”, ADNOC Gas said. Year-end free cash flow was $4.58 billion, with the October-December period contributing $1.22 billion. ADNOC Gas declared a dividend of $3.41 billion for 2024, half of which was paid September 2024. It expects to distribute the remaining half this April. “The final dividend for FY 2024 is in line with the company’s robust policy to increase the annual dividend by 5 percent annually and reflects the company’s strong free cash flow, which exceeds the dividend commitment by over $1 billion”, it said.
Kazakh Oil Output Hits Record High Despite Russian Pipeline Damage (Reuters) — Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage on its main export route via Russia, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), industry sources said on Thursday. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan was around 2.12 million barrels per day (bbl/d) on February 19, the sources said, citing official data, which has not been made public. Russia said this week CPC capacity was down 30-40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes given output increases need to correspond with export pipeline capacity. Кazakhstan relies on the Caspian pipeline for more than 80% of its exports and lacks alternative routes. It ships more than 1% of daily global supply, stretches over 1,500 km (939 miles) and carries crude from Kazakhstan's vast Tengiz oilfield on the northeastern shores of the Caspian Sea as well as from Russian producers. Record high oil output in Kazakhstan in February follows a rise in production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, which has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. Oil output stood above 920,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) on February 19, up from some 900,000 bbl/d early in February and an average of 640,000 bbl/d in January. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the drone attack damage would affect global energy markets and that restoring the facility quickly would be challenging as it would require Western equipment. A 30-40% flow reduction would amount to some 500,000-680,000 bbl/d of installed capacity of CPC pipeline, Reuters calculations showed. Kazakhstan's energy ministry said on Tuesday the country was supplying oil without restrictions. The ministry has yet to reply to a request for comment on Kazakh oil output. Shareholders in the CPC include U.S. majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil, as well as the Russian state, Russian firm Lukoil, and Kazakh state company KazMunayGas.
Iranian Oil Exports to China Rebound Iranian crude oil flows to China have rebounded this month after a U.S. crackdown on shipments launched in late 2024 decimated them in January. In a last-minute push to sanction Iran, the Biden admin blacklisted a number of tankers, trading entities, and shipping companies as participants in sanctioned oil trade. The February average of Iranian oil exports to its biggest buyer is set to average 1.74 million barrels daily, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The figure is an 86% increase from January flows. The boost in shipments was enabled by the opening of new receiving terminals and more ship-to-ship transfers, the Bloomberg report noted. The Trump administration has threatened to return to the maximum pressure approach of Trump’s first term in a bid to force Iran to give u developing a nuclear weapon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the target is to squeeze Iranian oil exports to a tenth of their current levels. Kpler said in a recent analysis that the return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran on the part of Washington was likely to weaken oil exports to China, at least for a while. “Some buyers, particularly larger Chinese privately owned refiners, are likely to steer clear of such dealings as a precaution in the near term,” due to higher prices resulting from workarounds to avoid U.S. sanctions, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi wrote. China’s private oil refiners, the so-called teapots, are key buyers of Iran’s sanctioned crude, and the two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. However, the tougher U.S. squeeze on Iran’s oil industry will inevitably lift prices, which would affect buying decisions, as noted by Kpler.
Crude Oil Prices Extend Losses Ahead Of Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks --The easing in crude oil prices continued unabated on Monday with both Brent and WTI shedding a little less than a quarter percent. The sentiment is attributed to the prospect of peace in Eastern Europe, as talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine are expected to begin in Saudi Arabia later in the week. Supply concerns are expected to ease if an end to the war also portends a reversal of sanctions on Russia and an easier flow of Russian crude oil to the global markets. The easing in the prices of the black liquid comes also amidst the Dollar's strength. The Dollar Index which measures the U.S. Dollar's strength against a basket of 6 currencies is currently at 106.83 versus 106.71 at close on Friday. Brent Oil Futures for April settlement is currently trading at $74.66, having slipped 0.11 percent from the previous close of $74.74 on Friday. Brent oil had declined 0.37 percent on Friday, 0.21 percent on Thursday and 2.4 percent on Wednesday. The day's trading ranged between $75.21 and $74.19 whereas the 52-week trading range was between $68.68 and $92.18. Losses are more than 1.6 percent over the past week and 7.6 percent over the past month. Brent oil is currently down more than 20 percent from the levels three years ago. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Futures for April settlement edged down 0.03 percent from the previous close of $70.71 to trade at $70.69. WTI Crude oil had declined 0.60 percent on Friday, 0.14 percent on Thursday and 2.5 percent on Wednesday. Prices ranged between a high of $71.19 and a low of $70.50 in the day's trading. Trading has ranged between $64.61 and $86.97 over the past 52 weeks. Losses in the past week exceed 1.8 percent. Over the past month, the decline exceeds 9.2 percent. Prices are currently 21.6 percent below the levels three years ago.
Ukraine Peace Talks Could Sink Brent Oil by $10 | OilPrice.com - The start of the U.S.-Russian talks on ending the war in Ukraine adds another bearish geopolitical factor for oil prices this year.As top U.S. and Russian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the possible end of the war without Ukraine’s participation, the market is starting to come around to the potential of eased access to Russian oil supply.If talks result in a deal and a possible sanctions relief on Moscow’s crude oil and petroleum product exports, oil prices will ease by up to $10 per barrel for the Brent benchmark, Bank of America says.“Should sanctions relief allow it, we believe Brent crude oil prices could drop between $5 and $10/bbl if Russian barrels suddenly do not need to make a long journey to India or China, and more supply is suddenly made available,” analysts at BofA said in a notethis week.A potential sanctions relief could also depress refining margins globally amid higher diesel supply out of Russia, according to the bank.“Global refining margins could fall as well. While margins have been normalizing since the Ukraine war started, they could go even lower under sanctions relief for diesel,” BofA’s analysts noted.Of course, oil prices could shoot up if talks falter or fail and the U.S. ratchets up the sanctions on Russia to try to force a deal.The potential of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is one of the several bearish factors that market analysts and participants are watching at the start of the year.The U.S. tariff threats and trade spats, the tariffs already in place, and the possibility of endless tit-for-tat levies could reduce economic growth in major economies, including the U.S. and China. Trade frictions with the on-again, off-again tariff threats have raised uncertainty, and businesses now lack the predictability of stable trade with any country with which America trades.In January, supply concerns with tightened sanctions on Russia and Iran and falling global stocks boosted an oil price rally, but these bullish signals were overshadowed by early February by concerns about economic and oil demand growth amid the trade and tariff tensions. By the first week of February, crude oil prices had erased all the gains they had accumulated in 2025. Market sentiment reverted to caution after President Trump began imposing tariffs and threatening to slap more of these.In the week to February 11, the latest available data from exchanges, hedge funds and other money managers continued to amass short – in other words, bearish – positions in the two most traded crude oil futures, WTI and Brent.The WTI net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – fell in the latest reporting week, driven more by fresh shorts entering the market than longs liquidating, ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.The net long in Brent futures also dropped, albeit at a much slower rate, the strategists added.The past few weeks added an additional bearish factor for oil prices—Iraq and Kurdistan are on track to resume oil flowsand exports from the semi-autonomous Iraqi region by the end of March.The resumption of Kurdistan’s exports would add about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the oil supply, although it is not clear yet how much of this would be allocated to international markets and how much would be kept for domestic consumption in Iraq.Among the mounting bearish signals for crude, OPEC+ is set to start adding supply in April, per its current plan to begin easing the production cuts from the second quarter onwards.But April is also reportedly a target date for the U.S. Administration to have some form of a ceasefire for Ukraine ready by Easter. If oil prices drop materially in case of a peace deal, OPEC+ may have to reconsider, once again, its plans to return more supply to the market. On the bullish front, tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign could support oil prices. Yet, President Trump can’t have it all. A deal on Ukraine would surely go down in his own book of “proudest legacy” as a peacekeeper—legacy the President wants to be remembered by, as he said in his inaugural address. If a deal leads to a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices, it would ease energy costs for American consumers—a key campaign pledge of President Trump. But U.S. oil producers would not be willing to boost drilling at $10 a barrel lower prices.They are not ramping up activity even at the current prices as they seek capital efficiencies and cost cuts and stick to spending discipline to return more cash to their shareholders. U.S. producers are unlikely to unleash President Trump’s coveted “drill, baby, drill” boom as they look at the economics of output levels and at signals from Wall Street investors.
Crude Oil Prices Drop Amid Talks of Potential Restart of Kurdish Oil Exports - Oil prices are under pressure this morning with talk of a potential restart in oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region Energy. Despite the downward pressure on oil prices through much of last week, the market still managed to eke out a small gain with ICE Brent settling 0.11% higher on the week. However, time spreads have weakened significantly since peaking in January, suggesting that the tightness in the physical market is easing. While the prompt ICE Brent spread is still in backwardation, the NYMEX WTI prompt spread has flipped back to a small contango. Pressure on the flat price has continued this morning with suggestions that oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region could resume in March, which could see exports of around 300k b/d through the Ceyhan pipeline. Flows were halted in early 2023 after a payment dispute between Iraq and Turkey. However, this is not the first time we have heard suggestions that exports could restart. In addition, if flows were to resume it would complicate issues around Iraqi output and its compliance with production targets under the OPEC+ deal. Positioning data also shows that speculators are relatively more bearish towards the oil market. The managed money net long in NYMEX WTI fell by 18,303 lots WoW to 122,237 lots as of last Tuesday. This move was driven more by fresh shorts entering the market than longs liquidating. Meanwhile, there was little change in speculative positioning in ICE Brent, with the net long cut by just 569 lots to 289,154 lots. European gas prices fell by a little more than 9% last week, the largest weekly decline since early January. However, prices still remain elevated, with TTF trading above EUR50/MWh. US and Russia talks working towards a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will weigh on sentiment. In addition, there are ongoing discussions around flexibility with regard to storage refill targets. There is still little clarity over whether Germany will subsidise storage refills and, if so, how it will be done. However, the backwardation between summer 2025 and winter 2025/26 prices has flattened somewhat over the last week. If this trend continues, it obviously reduces the likelihood of new subsidies. However, storage levels are a concern for Europe. Gas storage levels fell at a fairly quick pace last week, leaving them at a little under 45% full, compared to a 5-year average of 54% full. Colder weather forecasts for the next couple of days mean that these stronger storage draws will likely continue until the weather turns milder later in the week.
Oil Futures Remain Mixed Amid Supply Disruptions, Peace Talks (DTN) -- Oil futures traded mixed Tuesday as supply disruptions from Kazakhstan lifted prices, while uncertainty over ongoing peace talks between the United States and Russia kept gains in check. NYMEX WTI futures for March delivery rose $1.06 to $71.80 barrel (bbl), while April ICE Brent futures increased $0.58 to $75.81 bbl. March RBOB futures fell $0.0024 to $2.0875 gallon, while ULSD futures for March delivery dropped $0.0229 to $2.4389 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.340 points to 106.915 against a basket of foreign currencies. A Ukrainian drone damaged a CPC crude oil pumping station in Russia, halting flows on the export pipeline and raising concerns about a potential 30% reduction in Kazakhstan's oil exports for up to two months, according to Transneft. Kazakh crude oil, rebranded as KEBCO after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, accounts for about 1% of global supply. This supply disruption has contributed to the upward movement in oil prices, though gains remain limited as ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine conflict continue to shape market sentiment. New sanctions on Russian crude oil exports have increased demand for Middle Eastern crude among Indian and Chinese refiners, pushing Dubai-Oman crude to a 15-year-high $2.43 premium to Brent. Oversupply concerns have also weighed on the market after Iraq's oil minister on Monday reiterated that flows on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline could resume within a week, potentially adding 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply. However, no formal agreement has been reached between Baghdad and Kirkuk.
The Market Weighed the Expectations of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal The oil market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and news of a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia. The oil market, during Monday’s shortened trading session, traded to its low of $70.12 after U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration officials announced they had begun discussions with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. The market later bounced off its low and began its upward trend on a Bloomberg News report stating that OPEC+ was considering whether to delay the supply increases, which was later denied by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak. The market was further supported and rallied to a high of $72.07 early Tuesday morning on news that Ukrainian drones had attacked a Russian pipeline that pumps about 1% of global crude supply. However, the market gave up some of its sharp gains and traded in a sideways trading range amid the uncertainty in the market. The March WTI contract settled up $1.11 at $71.85 and the April Brent contract settled up 62 cents at $75.84. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 2.12 cents at $2.4406 and the RB market setting down 32 points at $2.0867. On Tuesday, a senior Russian official said that Ukrainian drones had attacked a pipeline in Russia which pumps about 1% of global crude supply, a strike that he said could disrupt flows to world markets and damage U.S. companies. On Monday, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that a crude oil transportation facility, the Kropotkinskaya station in the southern Krasnodar region, was struck by several drones loaded with explosives and shrapnel. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that the volume of oil pumped through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was down by 30-40% due to a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station in southern Russia. Separately, Russian oil transporting company Transneft said oil transit volumes from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline could be reduced about 30% due to the damage done by a Ukrainian drone attack. It said it will take up to two months month to deal with the damage caused by the drone strike. The State Department said the United States and Russia agreed on Tuesday to address “irritants” to the U.S.-Russia relationship and begin working on a path to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said oil production was estimated to be down between 120,000 and 150,000 bpd of oil, as of Tuesday morning, due to the recent extreme cold and related operations challenges. Justin Kringstad, the director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said associated wellhead natural gas production was also estimated to be down 0.34 to 0.42 bcfd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ producers are not considering a delay to a series of monthly oil supplies increases scheduled to begin in April.
Oil settles up on supply hits, traders cautious on Ukraine peace talks (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as supply disruptions mounted in Russia and the U.S., while talks to end the war in Ukraine capped gains as this could boost supply from Moscow.Brent crude futures rose 62 cents, or 0.8% to settle at $75.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.11, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.85 a barrel, catching up with the gains Brent registered on Monday, when the U.S. contract traded without settlement due to a holiday.Brent rose 48 cents in the previous session after Ukrainian drones attacked a pumping station in Russia on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline, which moves crude from Kazakhstan to world markets.Oil flows through the pipeline were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. A 30% cut would equate to a 380,000 barrels per day reduction in oil supply, per Reuters calculations."Brent already benefited yesterday from the CPC supply disruptions, but generally it will come down to how long and how big the disruption is," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Oil markets received another supply shock on Tuesday as Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk suspended loadings due to a storm, two sources familiar with the matter said. Exports from the port in February were revised up by 0.24 million metric tons from an initial plan to 2.25 million tons or some 590,000 barrels per day, sources said Monday. A cold snap in the U.S. has hit oil supply. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that production in the country's No. 3 producing state would be down by as much as 150,000 barrels per day.Keeping prices in check, U.S. and Russian delegates held a 4-1/2-hour meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ways to halt the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. Ukraine was not represented and Russia hardened its demands. If a deal is reached, Washington and its allies could drop sanctions on Russian oil supplies."Everyone is waiting on what is going to happen with Russia and Ukraine," "That's not something that's going to happen in the next 15 minutes, so the market is going to stay cautious," In a potential boost for oil prices, U.S. inventories and trade data due on Thursday could show lower net-imports for crude oil last week.However, expectations of a heavy refinery maintenance season could weigh on demand in the weeks ahead. "There is plenty of crude out here on the offer with refinery turnarounds beginning in March seen as heavy," U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Traders are also waiting for clarity on whether OPEC+ will proceed with plans to boost oil supply from April, or delay that to a later date.
Oil price climbs amid US, Russia supply disruptions - Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday as supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia tightened global markets, while investors awaited updates on Ukraine peace negotiations. By 4:05 pm AEDT (5:05 am GMT) Brent crude futures climbed $0.12 or 0.2% to US$75.96 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery added $0.13 or 0.2% to $71.968 per barrel. Oil flows through the pipeline fell by 30-40% on Tuesday after Ukraine’s drone attack on CPC’s largest pump station, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Meanwhile, frigid temperatures in the U.S. threatened domestic oil production. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that output in the state, the third-largest oil producer in the country, could decline by as much as 150,000 bpd due to extreme cold. The geopolitical landscape remained in focus, as Washington announced plans for further discussions with Moscow on ending the war in Ukraine. ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: "The U.S. and Russia signalled an intention to remove sanctions against Moscow as part of any accord to end the conflict in Ukraine.” Additionally, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a second stage of a Gaza ceasefire agreement were set to begin, officials confirmed.
Concerns Over Oil Supply Disruptions in the U.S. and Russia - The oil market continued to trend higher on Wednesday as it remained well supported by concerns over oil supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia, while the market awaits further developments on a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine. In the U.S., extreme cold weather in the U.S. has threatened oil supply due to wells freezing and in Russia, Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows were reduced by 30-40% as of Tuesday following a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30% cut equates to a loss of about 380,000 bpd of oil supply. The crude market posted a low of $71.71 on the opening and continued to extend the gains seen during Tuesday’s trading session. The market rallied to a high of $73.04 by mid-morning amid the supply concerns. It later erased some of its sharp gains as it positioned itself ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports later in the evening and on Thursday morning. The March WTI contract settled up 40 cents at $72.25 and the April Brent contract settled up 20 cents at $76.04. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.59 cents at $2.4565 and the RB market settling down 2 points at $2.0865. U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “a dictator without elections” and said he had better move fast to secure a peace or he would have no country left. This was after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hit back at U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion on Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, saying the U.S. president was trapped in a Russian disinformation bubble. Speaking ahead of talks with President Trump’s Ukraine envoy, a day after the U.S. President said Ukraine “should never have started” the conflict, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said he would like Trump’s team to have “more truth” about Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump could meet as early as this month, although a face-to-face meeting will take time to prepare.Goldman Sachs said a potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia’s oil flows. The bank said “We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports.” The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.25 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 21st, increasing available refining capacity by 258,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 893,000 bpd in the week ending February 28th. According to Natgasweather, the overnight GFS weather model trended 7-8 heating degree days colder for the next 9-15 day period. Meanwhile, the European weather model was less than 1 heating degree day changed. The EC remains nearly 20 HDDs warmer compared to the GFS for the 8-15 day forecast period. The private weather forecaster stated that while the EC is not as cold as the GFS for February 26th-March 6th, it still shows colder than normal temperatures gaining ground across the U.S. for March 5th-6th.
Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed (Reuters) - Oil prices held near a one-week high on Wednesday on worries about supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S., while the market awaited clarity on sanctions as Washington tries to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Brent futures rose 20 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $76.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $72.25. That was the highest close for both crude benchmarks since February 11. "The market is trying to make up its mind on three bullish drivers: Russia, Iran and OPEC," said BNP Paribas commodities strategist Aldo Spanjer. "People are trying to figure out the impact of announced and actual sanctions." Drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are reducing supplies. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30% cut would equate to the loss of 380,000 barrels per day of market supply, Reuters calculations show. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the CPC attack might have been coordinated with Ukraine's Western allies. In the U.S., cold weather threatened oil supply, with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimating production in the state would decline by as much as 150,000 bpd. There is also speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia and Kazakhstan may decide to delay its planned supply increase in April, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as "a dictator without elections" on Wednesday and said he should move fast to secure peace. However likely a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine may be, analysts at Goldman Sachs said any associated easing in sanctions against Russia is unlikely to bring a significant increase in oil flows. "We believe that Russian crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9 million bpd production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said in a report. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations on a second stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal, which could weigh on oil prices by reducing the risk of supply disruption. Tariffs announced by the Trump administration could also dent oil prices by raising the cost of consumer goods, weakening the global economy and reducing fuel demand. Worries about European and Chinese demand are also helping keep prices in check. Trump's initial policy proposals have raised concern at the Federal Reserve about higher inflation, with firms telling the U.S. central bank they generally expect to raise prices to pass through the cost of import tariffs. The Fed uses higher interest rates to combat rising prices and inflation. So long as the Fed and other central banks keep interest rates higher for longer, borrowing costs will remain elevated, which can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Separately, the market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group later on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. , Those reports will come out one day later than usual due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday on Monday. Analysts forecast energy firms added about 2.2 million barrels of crude to U.S. stockpiles during the week ended February 14. If correct, that would be the first time energy firms added crude into storage for four weeks in a row since April 2024.
Oil dips as US stockpiles rise, tariff concerns weigh -- Oil prices traded lower on Thursday after an industry report indicated a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles, while concerns over trade tariffs further pressured sentiment. By 4:00 pm AEDT (5:00 am GMT) Brent crude futures fell $0.28 or 0.4% to US$75.76 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April dropped $0.36 or 0.5% to $71.89 per barrel. Oil prices had held near a one-week high on Wednesday but retreated as fresh data signaled growing U.S. inventories and potential trade disruptions. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.34 million barrels for the week ending February 14, exceeding expectations of a 2.2-million-barrel rise. Investor sentiment was further dampened by new import tariffs announced by the Trump administration, which could raise costs for consumer goods, weaken the global economy, and ultimately reduce fuel demand. Despite the downward pressure, concerns over global supply disruptions helped limit losses. Russia reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station had reduced Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows by 30% - 40% on Tuesday. Analysts at ANZ noted: "The uncertainty over Trump's trade and foreign policies are also increasing the uncertainty over the supply outlook. Adding to this were reports that as much as 30% of oil exports from a major Kazakh pipeline to the Black Sea may be halted after a Ukrainian drone attacked a pumping station in Russia." Official U.S. crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Thursday, following a one-day delay due to a U.S. holiday.
Oil Prices Climb as Trump Pledges to Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve - The U.S. Administration will fill up fast the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), President Donald Trump said at an investment conference in Miami. “We’ll fill it up fast, but it’s at the lowest level. When we made the transition, it was at the lowest level in history, ever recorded,” President Trump said. “They put it all out because they thought they could keep gasoline prices down a little bit, just go past the election, and after that, they didn’t care,” the President added, criticizing Joe Biden’s administration for failing to curb the hikes in gasoline prices. “And it didn’t work because they didn’t get elected. I got elected, but the price of gasoline still rose over 35 percent,” President Trump said. The SPR needs to be refilled as the strategic reserve plays a critical role in stabilizing the U.S. market during global supply disruptions. The Biden administration released more than 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR starting in 2021, amid high gasoline prices. The Department of Treasury claims that these releases, along with coordinated international efforts, helped reduce gasoline prices by up to 40 cents per gallon in 2022. The SPR currently houses 395 million barrels of crude—a figure that is about 250 million barrels less than oil in the SPR at the beginning of Joe Biden’s term in office. The Reserve’s total capacity is 714 million barrels of crude. Also this week, President Trump promised tax cuts for oil and gas producers. President Trump will enlist the help of Republicans in Congress to reduce the debt burden on households and companies, notably oil and gas producers, whom he will allow to expense 100% of capital spending. Oil drillers, however, have signaled they had no immediate plans to boost production any further, unless global prices improved enough to motivate such a move.
WTI Holds Gains Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Build, No SPR Addition - Oil extended a string of small gains as uncertainty over global supplies lingered, offsetting API's report of another increase in US crude stockpiles. Crude has risen this week on the prospect that supplies may tighten as oil flows through a key Kazakh pipeline were reduced and as OPEC+ considers whether to push back a planned production increase. “Prices will likely remain rangebound, continuing to move with headlines,” Royal Bank of Canada analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a note, adding that “as more time passes without the market realizing a substantial catalyst,” traders will tend to position themselves closer to average prices. So all eyes are on the official data this morning for confirmation of the inventory rise. API
- Crude +3.34mm
- Cushing
- Gasoline +2.8mm
- Distillates -2.7mm
DOE
- Crude +4.63mm (+2.16mm exp)
- Cushing +1.47mm
- Gasoline -151k
- Distillates -2.05mm
Crude stocks rose more than expected last week - the fourth straight weekly build - as Distillates inventories drew down again but the official Gasoline stocks shift was de minimus... Source: Bloomberg For the first time since Nov 2023, there was no addition to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve... US Crude production inched higher... WTI was hovering up near the high of the day around $73 ahead of the print and is holding the gains for now... Trading has calmed after a tumultuous start to the year, with prices locked in a narrow range this month as the market becomes increasingly numb to the array of changes that US President Donald Trump is seeking to implement.
Oil Prices Rise as EU Sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ Uncertainty Weigh on Supply The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels Energy – EU Sanctions Russian Vessels Supply uncertainty continues to support the oil market, which faces multiple risks, including disruptions to Kazakh flows, the potential for a delay in the return of OPEC+ barrels, weather events in the US, and ever-present sanctions risks hanging over the market. The concerns pushed ICE Brent back above US$76/bbl yesterday. This week, the market is dealing with supply disruptions in North Dakota due to extremely cold weather. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said that oil production is down between 120-150k b/d, while natural gas production has also taken a hit. These disruptions will likely last until the weekend when warmer weather is forecast in the region. As for sanctions, the EU agreed to a new sanctions package against Russia. It includes targeting oil exports by sanctioning 73 additional vessels that are part of Russia’s shadow fleet. The EU had sanctioned 79 vessels previously. While similar sanctions from the US on Russia have not led to a significant drop in export volumes, floating storage has increased. This has buyers less willing to accept sanctioned vessels. However, potential restarts of oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, and soon, are offsetting these supply risks. There's talk that these flows could resume soon, after being offline since early 2023. A resumption could bring 300k b/d of supply onto the market. This isn’t the first time that there’s been talk of an imminent restart of flows. In addition, it’s unclear how Iraq would manage its OPEC+ production target if these flows were to resume. Overnight, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude oil inventories rose by 3.3m barrels over the last week, close to market expectations. Meanwhile, crude stocks at the WTI delivery hub increased by 1.7m barrels, fitting with recent weakness in the prompt WTI timespread. On the product side, gasoline inventories increased by 2.8m barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 2.7m barrels. The widely-followed Energy Information Administration inventory report will be released later today. LME aluminium prices rose above $2,700/t briefly yesterday, for the first time in a month. This followed reports the EU agreed on a sixteenth package of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on primary aluminium imports. Prices later gave up the gains. The package is expected to be adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This comes as the US conducts talks with Russia on a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. The US has signalled that sanctions relief could be part of an agreement. The ban on Russian aluminium imports will be phased in a year from the official adoption of the package. Any impact is likely to be limited. Although the EU continues to import Russian aluminium, volumes have fallen, with European buyers self-sanctioning since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia now accounts for around 6% of European imports of primary aluminium, half 2022 levels. The gap left by Russian supplies has mostly been filled by imports from the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, and this trend is likely to continue. Meanwhile, more Russian metal has been shipped to China, the world's biggest aluminium consumer. The US and the UK banned the import of metals produced in Russia in 2024. The EU has so far banned aluminium products, including wire, tube, pipe and foil, which account for less than 15% of EU imports. Russia is the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China, accounting for about 5% of global aluminium production.
Oil rises for third day on US fuel stocks draw, worries about Russia disruptions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Thursday, marking a three-day streak of gains, after data showed gasoline and distillate drawdowns in the U.S., while worries about supply disruptions in Russia also supported prices. Brent futures settled up 44 cents, or 0.58%, at $76.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for March delivery rose 32 cents, or 0.44%, to $72.57. The more-actively traded April WTI contract gained 0.35% to $72.50 a barrel. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose slightly more than expected while fuel inventories fell last week as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. "The crude build was a bit larger than expected, but there was a modest draw in gasoline and larger draw in distillate, keeping total inventories flat," Crude futures extended gains slightly following the report. Russia and the U.S. have had their first meeting since the start of the Ukraine war, aimed at restoring relations and preparing the ground for ending the conflict. However, disruptions to oil supply kept prices elevated. Russia attacked Ukrainian gas infrastructure and damaged gas production facilities overnight, Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30%-40% on Tuesday after a Ukraine drone attack on a pumping station. Elsewhere, potential restarts of oil flows from Iraq's Kurdistan region were offsetting supply risks, analysts at ING said in a note. Turkey, which hosts the port of Ceyhan that loads Iraqi oil from the Kurdistan region, had not received confirmation from Iraq on the resumption as of Thursday, the country's energy minister told Reuters. A resumption of the Iraqi oil flows would add 300,000 barrels of supply per day onto the market, ING analysts said. Import tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could dent oil prices by raising the cost of consumer goods, analysts said, weakening the global economy and reducing fuel demand. Concerns about European and Chinese demand were also helping keep prices in check. "It is natural to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global 'free-trade structure' with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the U.S.,"
WTI Slips 2% as Key Support Level Breached - Oil fell after the breach of a key technical level accelerated losses driven by the possibility of increased flows from Iraq, weakening the prospects of supply constraints that have gripped the market recently. West Texas Intermediate slid more than 2% to trade below $71 a barrel, with the drop deepening after prices dipped below their 100-day moving average of about $71.51. The decline puts oil at risk of its fifth straight weekly loss, which would be the longest streak in more than a year. Crude has been trapped in a roughly $5 range for the past three weeks because of an uncertain outlook for supply, including increasing expectations that OPEC+ will delay a planned production increase and a drone attack that threatened Kazakh pipeline flows. At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s rapid-fire tariff actions and other policy decisions have dimmed the outlook for demand and boosted US consumers’ expectations for long-term inflation. OPEC+ postponing its 120,000 barrel-a-day output hike — a move delegates are flagging as a possibility — would mark the fourth time the group delayed plans to revive production halted in 2022. At present, the alliance aims to restore a total of 2.2 million barrels a day in monthly increments, starting in April. “Given prices in the mid-$70s, we continue to anticipate that the producer group postpones the beginning of bringing back withheld oil supply to market,” Citigroup Inc. analysts, including Eric Lee, wrote in a note. “The decision to bring back more oil to market might only come if the US exerts more sanctions pressure on Iran amid potential negotiations.” WTI for April delivery slid 2.6% to $70.63 a barrel at 1:30 p.m. in New York. Brent for April settlement fell 2.4% to $74.67 a barrel.
Oil prices end lower, erasing weekly gains -Oil futures ended with losses Friday, turning lower on the week, as crude continued to struggle to break out of a sideways trading pattern.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for April delivery CL.1 CLJ25 dropped $2.08, or 2.9%, to finish at $70.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- -- April Brent crude BRN00 BRNJ25, the global benchmark, fell $2.05, or 2.7%, to settle at $74.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- Back on Nymex, March gasoline RBH25 declined 2.9% to close at $2.0267 a gallon, while March heating oil HOH25 fell 2.8% to $2.4323 a gallon.
- -- March natural gas NGH25 rose 2% to finish at $4.234 per million British thermal units, leaving it with a 13.7% weekly jump after an Arctic blast boosted demand and served to undercut production.
Friday's slide left both WTI and Brent with a 0.4% weekly decline. Crude has struggled to break out of its recent sideways trading pattern.The rangebound trading "may be due to the fact that a number of decisions are pending that could drive the oil price in one direction or the other,". "These include the possible postponement of the gradual increase in OPEC+ production, which is currently scheduled to begin in April, the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, the possible tightening of U.S. sanctions against Iran, and, last but not least, U.S. President [Donald] Trump's announcement that he wants to quickly rebuild the U.S. strategic reserves," she said.
Oil settles down $2, posting weekly loss as Mideast risk premium fades (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than $2 a barrel on Friday, posting a weekly decline as investors grappled with a fading Middle East risk premium alongside uncertainty about a potential peace deal in Ukraine. Brent futures settled down $2.05, or 2.68%, to $74.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $2.08, or 2.87%, to $70.40. Brent closed 0.4% lower on the week, while U.S. crude futures posted a 0.5% weekly loss. The relative calm in the Middle East as the Gaza ceasefire held has reduced risk in the market. Later in the day, analysts also pointed to media reports indicating that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China said they discovered a new coronavirus in bats. Oil first slipped around $2 a barrel when those reports surfaced, according to analysts. Investors also continued to weigh an uptick in U.S. crude oil stockpiles, reported on Thursday, as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row to the highest level since June, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by four to 592 in the week to February 21. Traders kept an eye on potential oil supply disruptions, however, which capped some losses. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. Oil flows from Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield via CPC are uninterrupted, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, citing Tengizchevroil. Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage to its CPC export route via Russia, industry sources said on Thursday. It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes. The Ukrainian drone attack helped support crude prices this week, said Alex Hodes, analyst at StoneX in a note on Friday, also pointing to analysts' expectation that OPEC+ will delay its production cut once again, in light of crude prices remaining below $80/bbl. Elsewhere, relations between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump deteriorated this week after Zelenskiy criticised U.S. and Russian moves to negotiate a peace deal without Kyiv's involvement. The rift was widened by Trump comments blaming Ukraine for starting the three-year-old conflict. Yet after a meeting with Trump's envoy for the Ukraine conflict on Thursday, Zelenskiy said Ukraine was ready to work quickly to produce a strong agreement with the U.S. on investments and security. "Trump keeps hammering Ukraine and the market is taking that as a potential easing of sanctions on Russia, and Russian oil flows coming back to the market,"
CENTCOM: Five ISIS Fighters Killed by US-Backed Airstrike in Iraq - US Central Command said in a press release on Saturday that its forces backed an airstrike near Rawa, Iraq, that was launched by Iraqi Security Forces on February 12.The command claimed the strike killed five ISIS fighters and said its “initial post-strike clearance confirmed the dead ISIS operatives, various medium and small caliber weapons, grenades, suicide explosive belts, and ammunition.”The attack marks the third time CENTCOM said it backed an airstrike launched by the Iraqi government since President Trump took office on January 20. The last strike occurred on February 12 near Kirkuk, whichCENTCOM claimed killed two ISIS operatives.The US has continued military operations against ISIS in Iraq in recent years despite the government repeatedly saying it doesn’t need the US’s help against ISIS remnants. In 2024, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called for the withdrawal of US and other foreign troops, and Washington and Baghdad entered talks about the US presence.Those talks resulted in the US and Iraq announcing a deal to officially end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition by September 2025, but it said the US will remain in Iraq under a “bilateral partnership.” The Pentagon said at the time that the US was “not withdrawing from Iraq.”
Tehran Hits Back at Netanyahu's Threat To 'Finish the Job' Against Iran - The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday hit back at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for threatening that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran. “Threatening others is both a gross violation of international law and the United Nations Charter,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. He added that the US and Israel could “not do a damn thing” against Iran. Referring to President Trump’s calls for a deal with Iran, Baghaei said, “You cannot threaten Iran on one hand and claim to support dialogue on the other hand.” Trump has also increased sanctions on Iran by reinstating his so-called “maximum pressure campaign.” Netanyahu made the threat against Iran while hosting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem on Sunday.“Over the last 16 months, Israel has dealt a mighty blow to Iran’s terror axis. Under the strong leadership of President Trump and with your unflinching support, I have no doubt that we can and will finish the job,” Netanyahu said.Rubio also took aim at Iran in his remarks to the press, claiming the Islamic Republic was the “single greatest source of instability in the region.”The threat from Netanyahu came after a report from The Washington Post said the US expects Israel to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months.The report, which cited US intelligence, said the idea would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities even though there’s no evidence Tehran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. President Trump even recently acknowledged that Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb.Iran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program that the US doesn’t officially acknowledge.
Zelensky Says Ukraine Will 'Not Recognize' Upcoming US-Russia Talks - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine will “not recognize” upcoming talks between the US and Russia and denied that his country was invited to participate. “Ukraine will not accept. Ukraine knew nothing about this. And Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results,” Zelensky told reporters while visiting the UAE. The Kremlin has confirmed the peace talks with the US will be held in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The negotiations will involve high-level Russian and American officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Zelensky denied claims from US officials that Ukraine was invited. “Ukraine will not take part in the negotiations. Ukraine did not know they were planned. And the visit to the region was planned long before the US decided to meet Russia there,” he said. Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, and he is expected to be joined by US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy who has been involved in some diplomacy with Russia. Lavrov will be joined by Yury Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky has said that European countries should be involved in the talks, but that idea has been rejected by both the US and Russia. Lavrov said Monday that most European leaders aren’t interested in peace. “I don’t know what they could do at the negotiating table. If their aim is to cunningly extract a deceptive truce while secretly preparing for continued war—true to their habits and nature—then why invite them at all?” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. While it’s still unclear how the war will end, the Trump administration’s policy toward Russia is a dramatic shift from the Biden administration, which essentially cut off high-level contacts with Moscow after the Russian invasion of Ukraine despite the risk of nuclear war.
Hamas Releases Three Hostages But Trump Restates Demand To Release All of Them - Following the release of three hostages, including one with an American, President Donald Trump restated his demand that all Israeli captives must be released from Gaza today.“Hamas has just released three Hostages from GAZA, including an American Citizen. They seem to be in good shape! This differs from their statement last week that they would not release any Hostages,” The presidentwrote on his Truth Social account.The post continued, “Israel will now have to decide what they will do about the 12:00 O’CLOCK, TODAY, DEADLINE imposed on the release of ALL HOSTAGES. The United States will back the decision they make!”Tel Aviv may view Trump’s post as a greenlight to break the ceasefire and resume its onslaught in Gaza. Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi said Saturday that it is his “duty to bring everyone back,” and the IDF is “investing in many efforts for this purpose, and at the same time, we are preparing offensive plans.” Trump is restating a threat he made on Monday. “If all the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I think it’s an appropriate time. I would say cancel it, and all bets are off. Let hell break out,” he said. Trump issued the threat after Hamas said it would display the hostage release scheduled for February 15 because Israel was not abiding by the ceasefire agreement. Since the deal went into effect on January 19, Israel has killed around 100 Palestinians in Gaza. Additionally, Tel Aviv is not letting in the amount of aid that was promised under the deal.Construction equipment to begin clearing debris, mobile homes, and tents were all pledged to be allowed into Gaza during the ceasefire and hostage deal. However, Israeli officials speaking with the New York Timesconfirmed that Tel Aviv was not living up to its end of the deal.On Thursday, Hamas walked back its plan to withhold future hostage releases until Israel complies with the deal.While it was Trump’s envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that pushed the hostage exchange and ceasefire deal across the finish line, Israel is now failing to comply with the agreement and Hamas is continuing to release hostages.It is unclear why Trump set Saturday as the deadline to release all hostages. Under the deal, captives on both sides were agreed to be released slowly over the first two phases of the agreement that would take several months.Last week, Trump appeared disturbed over the gaunt look of the Israeli hostages that were released by Hamas. While the American media and political class has focused on the status of the Israeli hostages, Palestinians detainees have also been released in ill health, and have additionally been subjected to severe beating. One released Palestinian told Al-Jazeera, “The Israelis told us to ‘Welcome to hell.’ It was a hell,” he said. “From the first day, we were beaten badly. The beatings were brutal, tough and unbearable.”Israel has also harassed the freed Palestinians and their families. Shortly after the release on Saturday, Israeli forces raided the homes of one of the freed men.
Report: Netanyahu Adds New Demands in Talks on Second Phase of Gaza Deal -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has added several new demands amid negotiations for the second of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israel’s Channel 13 has reported.The report said Netanyahu is demanding Hamas leadership be exiled, for Gaza to be demilitarized, and for Israel to continue maintaining “security control” of the Strip, which would mean a continued Israeli military occupation or blockade. Hamas has rejected Israeli calls for the group to be disarmed, and its main demand has been for an Israeli withdrawal, meaning it would be unlikely to agree to an arrangement that keeps Israeli troops in Gaza. On Wednesday, Hamas offered to release all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s envoy for the Middle East, acknowledged on Thursday that it would be “difficult” for the second phase of the ceasefire to be implemented but said it was a possibility.“The issue with [phase] two is that there’s supposed to be an end to the war, and the Israelis have a red line that Hamas cannot be in the government,” Witkoff said. “It’s hard to square that circle, but we’re making a lot of progress in that conversation, and hopefully it leads to good things and good results.”Witkoff also defended Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, which would require an ethnic cleansing campaign since Palestinians don’t want to leave despite the massive destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli siege and bombing campaign.“I sat in Gaza with a bulletproof vest looking at the scenery, and I don’t know why anyone would want to live there today. It’s illogical to me,” Witkoff said.The Trump administration has also backed Netanyahu’s stated goal of “eradicating” Hamas, signaling the US is ready to support Israel if it decides to restart its genocidal war on Gaza. In the meantime, the hostage exchanges continue as Hamas released four bodies of Israeli captives, including the remains of the Bibas brothers, who were only nine months and four years old when kidnapped during the October 7 attack on southern Israel. Hamas has maintained that the children and their mother were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza in November 2023.Hamas is expected to release six live Israeli hostages on Saturday, and Israel will free hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli jails, including many women and children who were captured in Gaza following October 7 despite having nothing to do with the attack.
Netanyahu Orders West Bank Escalation After Empty Buses Explode in Israel -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered a massive escalation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank after three empty buses exploded in the Israeli city of Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.“The Prime Minister has ordered the IDF to carry out an intensive operation against centers of terrorism in Judea and Samaria,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement, using the biblical name for the West Bank. The buses that exploded were empty and in separate parking lots, and Israeli police said two additional unexploded bombs were found. No one was wounded or injured in the blasts. Israeli police say they’re treating the incident as a “suspected terrorist attack,” and Israeli officials are claiming the blasts are tied to the West Bank, although so far, no Palestinian group has taken credit for the bombing. On January 21, Israel launched a new operation in the West Bank dubbed “Iron Wall” that has focused on the northern cities of Tulkarm and Jenin and their refugee camps. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed, and tens of thousands have been forcibly evacuated from their homes, the most significant displacement in the territory since 1967. The Israeli military has expanded its “open fire orders” in the West Bank, leading to a surge in the killing of Israeli civilians by IDF troops. Among those killed in the recent operations have included a pregnant woman, a two-year-old girl, and a seven-year-old boy. Netanyahu’s order suggests the Israeli assault on the occupied West Bank will intensify even more. The bus explosions also risk the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza as elements of the Israeli government are looking for excuses to restart the genocidal war.
Israel Has Violated Gaza Ceasefire 266 Times, Killing 132 Palestinians - Israel has violated the Gaza ceasefire 266 times and has killed 132 Palestinians since the truce went into effect on January 19, Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday, citing Palestinian security sources.Out of the 132 people who were killed, 26 succumbed to wounds received during Israeli attacks. Over 900 Palestinians have also been injured by Israeli gunfire and airstrikes.In many cases, the Israeli military acknowledged its forces fired on Palestinians simply because they were approaching IDF troops. Due to the Israeli military’s open-fire policy, an unarmed Israeli civilian contractor was also killed. The Palestinian security sources said other ceasefire violations have included strikes on vehicles headed to north Gaza, attacks on bulldozers working to clear the rubble, and gunfire on civilians attempting to return to their homes.Al Jazeera also reported that Israeli gunfire killed a child in Rafah, southern Gaza, on Tuesday, and another was wounded by an Israeli attack in Gaza City. It’s unclear if the latest violence was included in the total casualty count.Despite the Israeli ceasefire violations, Hamas is still going through with hostage releases and announced Tuesday that it would be releasing six living and four dead Israeli hostages this week.Hamas said that in exchange, Israel agreed to allow mobile homes and construction vehicles into Gaza. The fact that Israel had been blocking such equipment is also a ceasefire violation since it made a commitment to allow the aid to enter Gaza under the initial ceasefire and hostage deal.
Israel Continues To Block Entry of Temporary Housing into Gaza in Violation of Ceasefire Deal - Israel has continued to block the entry of temporary housing into the Gaza Strip despite agreeing to allow the deliveries as part of the hostage and ceasefire deal, Middle East Eye reported on Monday.Under the deal, Israel agreed to allow 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes in Gaza, but so far, only 20,000 tents have entered, and no mobile homes have been allowed in. Tens of thousands of mobile homes are stuck at the Rafah crossing in Egypt.The Times of Israel reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not given approval for the entry of mobile homes and construction equipment needed to clear the rubble. The report acknowledged that the movewas a “potential breach of the ceasefire.”According to Al Jazeera, a spokesman for Netanyahu admitted Israel was blocking the entry of the mobile homes, saying Israel would use “any leverage” it has to ensure Hamas releases hostages under the first phase of the ceasefire deal. But the strategy may backfire since Hamas threatened to postpone Saturday’s hostage release over Israel’s ceasefire violations.Palestinians in Gaza told Al Jazeera that mobile homes were needed due to the conditions of their tents. “Tents are flooded with rain and sewerage water. We are soaked in waste water. Our children are getting sick. Those readymade homes would solve some of our many problems,” said Umm Mohammed Selemy, a resident of north Gaza.Israeli forces have also continued to bomb and shoot Palestinians in Gaza despite the ceasefire deal, killing around 100 since the truce went into effect on January 19. The Israeli military said on Monday that its fighter jets targeted a vehicle traveling from north Gaza to central Gaza, claiming it was “on a route not approved for vehicle traffic.”A day earlier, an Israeli drone strike killed three police officers near the southern city of Rafah. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the officers were in the area to secure aid shipments.
Israel Pushes New Atrocity Narrative Just As Ceasefire Deadline Approaches -Caitlin Johnstone -- A new narrative is being aggressively pushed by Israel and its apologists to justify resuming the Gaza genocide, conveniently just as an important deadline for ceasefire negotiations draws near.The IDF is now claiming that the Israeli children Kfir and Ariel Bibas “were both brutally murdered by terrorists while being held hostage in Gaza, no later than November 2023.”IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari told the press on Friday that, “Contrary to Hamas’ lies, Ariel and Kfir were not killed in an airstrike. Ariel and Kfir Bibas were murdered by terrorists in cold blood. The terrorists did not shoot the two young boys, they killed them with their bare hands. Afterward, they committed horrific acts to cover up these atrocities.”Anyone who has been following the events in Gaza over the last year and a half will be unsurprised to learn that Israel provided no evidence to support these incendiary claims. Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement in his signature American English waving around an enlarged photograph of the children and talking about what savage monsters the Palestinians are. “Hamas murdered them in cold blood,” Netanyahu says, while the camera zooms in on the adorable little redheads. “As the prime minister of Israel, I vow that I will not rest until the savages who executed our hostages are brought to justice. They do not deserve to walk this earth. Nothing will stop me. Nothing.”This happens just as Netanyahu has been working to sabotage ceasefire negotiations by adding new non-starter demands that were not in the original agreement, just as sources in Israeli media predicted he would do upon his return from Washington earlier this month. The six-week-long first stage of the ceasefire deal with Hamas is set to expire at the beginning of March.This is obvious babies-on-bayonets atrocity propaganda, being released at the most convenient of times. After Israel has been caught lying about beheaded babies and mass rapes and so much more, only an idiot would take any of these claims on faith.
Israeli Soldiers in Gaza Used 80-Year-Old as Human Shield Before Killing Him and His Wife - A senior Israeli officer in Gaza tied an explosive around the neck of an 80-year-old Palestinian man to force him to act as a human shield, and the man and his wife were later killed by Israeli soldiers, the Israeli media outlet The Hottest Place in Hell has reported.Israeli soldiers present at the scene told the media outlet that the incident occurred in May 2024 in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood. Israeli soldiers found the elderly couple in their home, who said they didn’t evacuate due to mobility issues.“They said they had nowhere to run and that they couldn’t evacuate to Khan Younis. The man was walking with a cane, and they said they simply wouldn’t be able to walk all the way there,” one of the soldiers said.The Israeli soldiers then separated the man from his wife and tied an explosive to him, threatening that his head would be blown off if he tried to run away even though he had a cane.“They explained to him that if he did something wrong or not as we wanted, the person behind him would pull the rope, and his head would be severed from his body. He walked around with us like that for eight hours, even though he was an 80-year-old man and even though he couldn’t escape us,” one soldier said.After eight hours of checking for explosives, the man was returned to his wife. Then, Israeli soldiers ordered the elderly couple to evacuate to the south on foot. The report said the soldiers didn’t inform other nearby battalions that the elderly couple was heading south, and after only walking for 100 meters, they were shot and killed. “After a hundred meters, the second battalion saw them and shot them on the spot. They died like that, in the street,” a soldier said. Israeli media has previously revealed that the IDF had an “open fire” policy in many areas of Gaza, meaning any Palestinian who entered it would be shot even if they were unarmed civilians, or in this case, elderly people walking with a cane. Haaretz has reported that unarmed civilians who were killed would be counted as “terrorists.” The practice of using Palestinian civilians as human shields became widespread in Gaza, so much so that the Israelis gave it a name. Palestinians detained in Gaza and used as human shields are called “mosquitos,” while Palestinians brought in from Israel for that purpose are called “wasps.” The Hottest Place in Hell referred to the use of the 80-year-old man as a human shield as the “Mosquito Procedure.”While the IDF claims it doesn’t allow the use of Palestinian civilians as human shields, a soldier said it has become official policy. “The Mosquito Procedure is fully institutionalized, and it’s a very gray area within the army,” a soldier said. “It’s something that comes down as an explicit order from the battalion commander level and below. But somewhere at the brigade commander level, they completely deny it. When problems start, they push the responsibility downward and say not to do it.”
Israel Confirms Troops Will Remain at Southern Lebanon Sites After Deadline - It is just one day from the extended deadline for Israel to withdraw its military from Lebanon. Israel is preparing to do something presented as withdrawal but which would more correctly be presented as continuing to occupy Lebanese soil.Israeli officials suggest they’re going to withdraw from the towns and villages they currently occupy and in which they’ve carried out systematic demolition of civilian homes for months. They are being very clear thatthey’ll continue to hold five hilltop surveillance posts inside Lebanon though, and troops will remain there despite what is being broadly called a “full withdrawal.”Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani says that the US has approved this idea as a “temporary measure.” However, as no end date is specified, how temporary this actually might be remains entirely unknown.Other unknown aspects of a continued occupation include, particularly, how Hezbollah will react. They expressed impatience at Israel remaining for weeks now but didn’t attack occupation forces during the ceasefire. They did, however, press the new Lebanese government to ensure Israel comply with the withdrawal deadline, and now that it’s clear Israel plainly will not do so, there’s going to be pressure within Hezbollah to do something.Also unclear is whether Israel will change its policy of shooting civilians trying to return home to southern Lebanon. Israeli troops shot and killed dozens of people trying to go home during the ceasefire, and while they said the ban on returning remains “indefinitely,” they have not said anything new in recent days.An Israeli drone attacked and killed a Hamas member in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon today as well. This raises the question of whether or not, post-ceasefire, Israel will make fewer attacks on Lebanon. The attack on Sidon almost certainly violated the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and might well violate the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza as well. It’s merely one of many violations though, as Israel has committed hundreds of violations in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect in late November.Adding to concerns about the post-ceasefire but not post-occupation border, Israel is reportedly going to triple the number of troops on the border with Lebanon. While some military buildup may be seen as an attempt to convince displaced Israelis it is safe to return north, the inevitable concern is that this is really a stopgap before the next Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
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