oil supplies at a 34 month low; gasoline supplies at a 48 week high w/ demand at a 52 week low; rig count at 37 month low

oil supplies at a thirty-four month low, the lowest for mid-January since 2018; gasoline supplies at a forty-eight week high with gasoline demand at a fifty-two week low; rig count lowest since December 2021

US oil prices fell for the first week of the past five after Trump declared a national energy emergency and demanded that OPEC and the Saudis lower prices…after rising 1.7% to $77.88 a barrel last week on concerns that global oil supplies would tighten following new sanctions on Russian exports, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery fell more than $1 on overseas markets on Monday, as traders awaited Trump’s inauguration and hoped for some clarity on his policy agenda, including how he planned to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boost U.S. oil and gas production, and lower costs for consumers, then traded lower in New York on Tuesday in follow through selling after Trump declared a national energy emergency and laid out a plan to accelerate oil and gas permitting to increase the country’s output, and settled $1.99 or 2.6% lower to expire at $75.89 a barrel in its final trading session as Trump’s edicts raised concerns of higher U.S. output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year, while the more actively traded March contract for the benchmark US light sweet crude fell $1.56 or 2% to settle at $75.83 a barrel at the same time…with markets now quoting the contract price for the benchmark US crude for March delivery, prices showed little movement in early Wednesday trading. as markets evaluated Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency and its potential impact on supply, then turned lower as the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had eased tensions in the Middle East while traders felt the potential increase in US oil production could lead to an oversupply on global markets, and settled 39 cents lower at $75.44 a barrel as traders considered how Trump's proposed tariffs could affect global economic growth and demand for energy….oil prices slid further in Asian trading on Thursday, as traders scrambled to decipher the potential fallout of evolving US energy policies on global economic growth and energy demand, then tumbled further after Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos that the US would seek an oil price reduction from Saudi Arabia and OPEC, and settled 82 cents or more than 1% lower at a two week low of $74.62 a barrel, as Trump implied that he would pressure major oil producers to boost output…oil prices continued to trend lower early Friday due to the Trump administration's lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy, even as traders appeared to be quite certain that his energy policies would lead to significantly higher U.S. oil production, but recovered to settle 0.4 cents higher at $74.66 a barrel, as traders continued to weigh uncertainty surrounding the president's energy policies, and thus ended down 4.1% lower for the week, while the March oil contract, which had settled the prior Friday at $77.39 a barrel, ended this week 3.5% lower..

natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished higher for the second time in three weeks on expectations of recovering LNG demand and a shift to slightly colder forecasts…after falling 1.0% to $3.948 per mmBTU last week on a break in the weeks of below normal temperature forecasts, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for February delivery opened 14.8 cents lower Monday morning, as many analysts were surprised that freeze-offs during the holiday weekend polar vortex intrusion were not as disruptive as had been expected, then traded sideways after a volatile morning session to settle 19.2 cents or nearly 5% lower at $3.756 per mmBTU, even as extreme cold across much of the country drove heating demand to a record high, as the latest weather forecasts continued to call for less cold and lower heating demand next week...natural gas prices started Wednesday a few cents lower, but trended higher through the day, on news that the Freeport LNG terminals might possibly returning to service, and settled up 20.4 cents at $3.960 per mmBTU, supported by the expectation that the supply/demand balance would tighten further… natural gas prices opened 4.1 cents higher Thursday, then traded cautiously higher to an intraday high of $4.048 at 10:25 AM, but was then knocked down to $3.861 by a surprisingly bearish storage report that landed outside the range of expectations, but slowly recovered throughout the afternoon to settle just 1.5 cents lower at $3.945 per mmBTU, following the report of a surprisingly small storage withdrawal, leaving demand and production trends holding up for a supply surplus at the end of the withdrawal season….natural gas prices accelerated their declines in early trading Friday, as recovering production and milder weather forecast for early February added to a bearish storage miss, but flipped positive through midday trading as weather models added back some cold and bears declined to press their bets ahead of the weekend, and settled 8.2 cents higher at a 2 year high of $4.027 per mmBTU, as the market reassessed the underlying drivers, signaling a slightly less bullish scenario to start the new month, and thus finished 2.0% higher for the week, while the benchmark contract for natural gas for March delivery, which will be the front month contract next week, finished 0.8% lower at $3.450 per mmBTU..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 17th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 223 billion cubic feet to 2,892 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 57billion cubic feet, or 1.9% below the 2,949 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 17th of last year, but still 21 billion cubic feet, or 0.7% more than the five-year average of 2,871 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 17th of January over the most recent five years….the 223 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was somewhat less than the 244 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and was also quite a bit less than the 277 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, while quite a bit more than the average 167 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early January week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 17th indicated that despite a decrease in the amount of oil we refined and a increase in our oil imports, we ​still needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the ninth consecutive week, and for 21st time in twenty-nine weeks, largely due to a jump in demand for crude that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 621,000 barrels per day to average 6,745,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 304,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 437,000 barrels per day to average 4,515,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,230,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 17th, an average of 184,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 610,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 4,000 barrels per day lower at 13,477,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,317,000 barrels per day during the January 17th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,522,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 17th, an average of 1,125,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 110,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending January 17th averaged a rounded 905,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -905,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 294,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,199,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, making the week over week changes we have just cited nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded net 110,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 145,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 36,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-eighth SPR increase in the past sixty-five weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,556,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.3% more than the 6,534,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 4,000 barrels per day lower at 13,477,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 6,000 barrels per day higher at 13,035,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 10,000 barrels per day lower at 442,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.9% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 85.9% of their capacity while processing those 15,522,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 17th, down from their 91.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, reflecting the impact of​ below freezing ​w​eather on Gulf Coast refineries….the 15,522,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.6% more than the 15,276,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during​ the equally cold week ending January 19th of 2024, but 7.9% less than the 16,857,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 17th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 90.5%, ​then somewhat low for this time of year…​

With the sharp decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 43,000 barrels per day to 9,237,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 17th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 397,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was​ still 11.4% more than the 8,325,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending January 19th of last year, but 2.7% less than the gasoline production of 9,535,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending January 17th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 473,000 barrels per day to 4,710,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 21,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production decrease, our distillates output was still 4.7% more than the 4,500,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 19th of 2023, but 4.9% less than the 4,954,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 17th, 2020…

After this week’s modest decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the tenth consecutive week, increasing by 2.332,000 barrels to a forty-eight week high of 245,898,000 barrels during the week ending January 17th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 5,852,000 barrels to a 46 week high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose again this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 239,000 barrels per day to a one year low of 8,086,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of gasoline rose by 20,000 barrels per day to 993,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 110,000 barrels per day to 340,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.8% below last January 19th’s gasoline inventories of 252,977,000 barrels, and were still 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

On the other hand, with this week’s sharp decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the eleventh time in eighteen weeks, decreasing by 3,070,000 barrels to 128,945,000 barrels during the week ending January 17th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 3,077,000 barrels to a 51 week high during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 269,000 to 4,108,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 205,000 barrels per day to 1,329,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 70,000 barrels per day to 299,000 barrels per day...After 29 inventory withdrawals over the past 52 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.3% below the 133,336,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 19th of 2023, and about 6% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, in spite of the increase in our oil imports and the drop in oil refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 30th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,017,000 barrels over the week, from 412,680,000 barrels on January 10th to a 34 month low of 411,663,000 barrels on January 17th, the lowest for mid-January since 2018, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 1,962,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still 29.2% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. ​  After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this January 17th were 2.1% less than the 420,678,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 19th of 2024, and 8.2% less than the 448,548,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 20th of 2023, and 1.1% less than the 416,190,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on January 21st of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

For a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 24th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 17th) and this week’s (January 24th) count, the third column shows last week’s January 17th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 26th of January, 2024…

​the total US rig count, now at 576, is the lowest since December 2021..

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Hit the Lights - E&Ps Highlight Their Success in Growing Utica Shale Condensate Production --Condensate production in the Utica Shale’s volatile oil window in eastern Ohio has more than doubled over the past three years, and plans by the handful of E&Ps that focus on the super-light crude oil suggest that output will increase further this year and next. Who are these producers, why do they see such promise for condensate growth in the Utica, and how are they measuring their success? In today’s RBN blog, we continue examining rising condensate production in eastern Ohio with a look at the leading E&Ps in this space. As we said in Part 1, the Marcellus/Utica region in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia is now one of the world’s most prolific and vital natural gas production areas, with output currently topping 32 Bcf/d and decades of reserves yet to be tapped. The overlapping shale plays generate hundreds of thousands of barrels of NGLs per day consumed in the Northeast and Midwest, piped or railed away to other U.S. and Canadian markets, or sent to the Marcus Hook or Repauno LPG export terminals near Philadelphia to be shipped overseas.What’s less well-known is that parts of the Utica play (mostly in a few counties in eastern Ohio) also produce relatively modest amounts of crude oil, almost all condensate with an API value (or viscosity) of 55 to 59 degrees (and sometimes as high as 65 degrees). More recently, at least a couple of E&Ps in the Utica have been producing small volumes of heavy condensate with an API value closer to 50 degrees — still far lighter than West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which has an API of about 40 degrees. Condensate production in eastern Ohio has been on a tear since the winter of 2021-22, topping more than 100 Mb/d in recent months. Pronouncements from the producers active in that slice of the Utica Shale indicate output could rise by tens of thousands of additional barrels per day — or maybe even double again, to past 200 Mb/d — in the next few years.

The Ohio Valley has a radiation problem by Randi Pokladnik - When they detonated the Trinity nuclear bomb in 1945 “officials chose not to evacuate the area, nor to warn residents of potential health effects.” Native Americans who worked in Uranium mines died from radiation exposures. “From 1944 to 1986, nearly 30 million tons of uranium ore were extracted from Navajo lands.” Officials knew the mines (which were often located near or on reservations) exposed entire communities to radiation, but they failed to alert the workers and the families living in the region. On Jan. 6, 2025, “The Environmental Protection Agency and Navajo Nation finalized a plan to transport one million cubic yards of waste from the Quivira Mines site to a disposal cell near Thoreau, N.M. The Quivira Mines are one of the largest and most high-risk uranium mine sites on the Navajo Nation” and according to EPA spokesman Michael Brogan, have high concentrations of Radium-226 and Uranium. Unfortunately, a similar scenario has been occurring in Southeastern Ohio. Since 2012, when fracking for oil and gas started in earnest in the tri-state area, communities, citizens, and oil and gas workers continue to be exposed to brine and fracking sludge that can contain alarming amounts of radioactive isotopes like Radium-226 and Radium-228. Every day, brine trucks that are lacking any warning placards or Material Safety Data Sheets, drive along our roads and through our towns transporting oilfield wastes from fracking well pads to Class II injection wells. In addition to bromine and chlorine salts, these trucks can also carry toxic chemicals, pit waste, refuse water, sludge, and even used frack sand along with water soluble Radium-226. Justin Nobel’s book, “Petroleum 238” is an excellent source of information detailing how the oil and gas industry has been allowed to spew radiation across the United States in the form of billions of gallons of oilfield wastes. Oil and gas exploration and production wastes (brine and drilling muds) were exempted from the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C in 1978. They are also exempted from Ohio’s hazardous waste regulations. This isn’t because the wastes are safe, in fact, officials admit the wastes could indeed be harmful to human health and the environment. The primary reason for the exemption was “if the immense volume of oil and gas wastes were regulated as hazardous it would economically harm the industry.” When the law was revisited in 1980 under President Reagan, the Environmental Protection Agency kept the exemption, saying regulations would “cause a severe economic impact on the industry and on oil and gas production in the U.S.” Basically, as far as politicians and regulatory agencies are concerned, industry profits supersede any concern for the health of our communities. A big fear is that the radiation from Radium-226 (which has a half-life of 1600 years) and Radium-228 (half-life 5.75 years) will be poisoning the tri-state region long after the fracking boom is over. Radium isotopes have been shown to cause bone, liver, and breast cancer in humans. “The Ohio Administrative Code (OAC) has set environmental discharge limits for Radium 226 and 228 at 60 pCi/L each,” yet it is not unusual for brine trucks to carry fluids testing above 3,000 pCi/L, with some as high as 7,300 pCi/L, according to the Buckeye Environmental Network brine factsheet on conventional and horizontal well brines; both contain Radium isotopes. In 1985, Ohio’s General Assembly approved the use of vertical well oilfield brine to be used on roadways as a deicer and dust suppressant. In 2004, Ohio passed HB 278, “which took away local control on oil and gas regulation and granted Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) sole authority,” meaning local communities cannot stop an injection well from being constructed. There is an injection well less than ten miles from my home. Ohio has over 234 Class II injection wells and accepts wastes from out-of-state. Each day, countless brine trucks loaded with toxic horizontal well wastes travel along Tappan Lake, a drinking water source for Cadiz, Ohio. We cannot depend on the ODNR or Ohio Environmental Protection Agency to safeguard our communities from oil and gas wastes. Several grassroots groups have taken on the task of educating the public about this radioactive nightmare. One of these is the Ohio Brine Task Force. “The Brine Task Force is a group of thoughtful and committed Ohioans interested in stopping the hazardous practice of brine spreading in our communities.” The Buckeye Environmental Network is hosting a Statehouse Symposium at the State Capital-“Spreading Oilfield Brine on Ohio’s Roadways” on March 6 from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. where attendees will hear from workers affected by oilfield brine contamination and scientific experts on why this is an urgent issue to address.

Infinity Natural Resources Launches IPO, Hopes to Raise ~$250M - Marcellus Drilling News - January 22, 2025 MDN reported in October that Marcellus/Utica driller Infinity Natural Resources (INR) intended to file an initial public offering (IPO) with the Securities and Exchange Commission hoping to raise $100 million (seeM-U Driller Infinity Natural Resources Files for $100 Million IPO). We further reported in December that INR added seven Big Banks to the existing list of four as underwriters (see Infinity Natural Resources Picks Up Another 7 Banks for Utica IPO). All signs pointed to an imminent launch of the IPO. That day is here. INR announced yesterday that it has launched an offering of 13.25 million shares of stock, hoping to fetch between $18.00 and $21.00 per share.

Utica's Infinity Natural Resources Seeks $1.2B Valuation with IPO | Hart Energy - Infinity Natural Resources is eyeing a potential market value of up to $1.2 billion through an IPO. The Appalachia producer plans to sell 13.25 million shares at a public purchase price between $18 and $21 per share, Morgantown, West Virginia-based Infinity Natural Resources said Jan. 21. Underwriters will also have a 30-day option to acquire up to an additional 1.98 million shares. Citigroup, Raymond James and RBC Capital Markets are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.Infinity expects to generate approximately $268.8 million through the offering, assuming underwriters exercise their options to purchase additional shares. The company aims to use the proceeds to repay existing debt and for other general corporate purposes.The company has been authorized to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “INR.”The company is expected to officially price the offering on Jan. 30 before trading begins on Jan. 31, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission data. Infinity is the latest energy company testing the public markets with an IPO. Last week, oilfield services firm Flowco Holdings listed its shares on the NYSE.Shares for Flowco, a provider of artificial lift and production optimization services, are trading at around $30 per share after FLOC shares opened at a public purchase price of $24 per share on Jan. 16.LNG developer Venture Global is aiming for a huge valuation of around $110 billion through an upcoming IPO. Infinity, which filed preliminary IPO paperwork with regulators in October 2024, is one of the top private producers from Appalachia’s Utica shale. The company has a portfolio of 93,000 net surface acres across the volatile oil window of eastern Ohio and the dry gas play in southwestern Pennsylvania. Infinity also owns Marcellus dry gas assets in Pennsylvania. Infinity initially focused on Appalachia’s Utica and Marcellus dry gas shale plays. It acquired its first Pennsylvania properties in March 2018 before expanding through a series of acquisitions.But given low natural gas prices, most of the company’s current development focuses on the Ohio Utica oil window—near where EOG Resources, Encino Energy and Ascent Resources have drilled horizontal wells with oily results.Infinity’s net daily oil production averaged 7,110 bbl/d during third-quarter 2024, up from around 2,000 bbl/d a year prior, according to investor materials.The company’s total production averaged approximately 25,000 boe/d (29% oil, 49% liquids) during the third quarter.Infinity operates in the core of the Ohio Utica oil window across Carroll, Tuscarawas, Harrison, Guernsey, Noble, Muskingum and Morgan counties, Ohio.There were 208 wells drilled in the play between January 2021 and September 2024 with an IP-90 of 930 bbl/d normalized to a 15,000-ft lateral; Infinity’s Ohio Utica wells average 1,098 bbl/d.Infinity has drilled 15 of the top 25 Utica horizontal wells in Carroll County, Ohio, since 2021, based on IP-90 rates.

Lawsuit: Cleveland workers didn't 'Call Before You Dig,' damaged naturalgas lines — A natural gas company has accused Cleveland’s utility workers of striking and damaging underground gas lines 15 separate times in recent years, sometimes violating Ohio law by not calling 811, the “Call Before You Dig” line. Enbridge, the natural gas utility formerly known as Dominion Energy, sued Cleveland in the Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court on Monday, seeking $43,000 to pay for the repairs.

Oregon fire responds to natural gas leak Thursday — Oregon Fire and Rescue responded to a natural gas leak Thursday morning at 816 N. Lallendorf Road near York Street. Oregon fire said a passer-by heard a loud noise coming from what they believed to be a gas line. When crews arrived, they confirmed a loud noise from a gas main release and a strong smell of natural gas. "Fire department crews worked with Oregon PD to temporarily evacuate the immediate area and coordinated efforts with Oregon Clean Energy and Nexus Gas Transmission to mitigate the natural gas leak. The hazard was neutralized at 12:35 p.m.," Oregon fire said in a press release. According to the department, no injuries or effects from the gas leak have been reported.

Utica Shale Academy awards bid for new welding lab - — The Utica Shale Academy is adding a second welding lab to its campus after awarding an estimated $907,000 bid for construction. The community school contracted with PDBM of Canonsburg, Pa., for the project and Superintendent Bill Watson said plans are to have the structure completed this summer. “It should be completed in August,” Watson said. “This will be a 50-foot-by-100-foot building with up to 40 welding labs and will include a CNC plasma machine and a classroom area.” The building will be located next to the current outdoor welding lab along East Main Street and is a restructuring of previous plans for a three-story building. Watson explained that a funding request by U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, which was made while he was still a state senator, yielded a smaller amount and caused officials to take a different course of action. USA was the first recipient of Gov. Mike DeWine’s $500 million Appalachian Community Grant to construct a new building and expand the welding, heavy equipment and robotics programs. “We’ve worked on this idea for two years to try to make it a reality. (Then-state Sen. Rulli) put in for a $5 million earmark but we received $2.5 million, so we had to change plans.” The remainder of the funds have been used to make improvements at the Williams Collaboration Building that houses the USA administrative offices, new junior high program and cafeteria. Watson said the cafeteria was renovated to house the kitchen and dining area while the offices, windows and boiler were updated, plus an ERV air circulation system was to be finished in the spring. Since its inception roughly a decade ago, the Utica Shale Academy has established a campus in the village comprised of the Hutson Building, the Energy Training Center, the Williams Collaboration Center and the outdoor welding site along East Main Street as well as the Utica Shale Academy Community Center that is housed on Church Street. About 170 students in grades 7-12 currently attend the community school, which is a dropout recovery and retention facility that focuses career-tech education for at-risk pupils. More than 150 students have graduated with over 1,100 certifications being earned since 2021.

41 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 13 – 19 | Marcellus Drilling News --Wow! Is this the Trump effect? For the week of Jan 13 - 19, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells achieved levels we haven't seen in, oh, about four years. There were 41 new permits issued last week, up significantly from 27 issued the week before and 30 issued two weeks before. The Keystone State (PA) issued a whopping 25 new permits, with 17 (!) going to EQT spread across Greene and Washington counties. Another six permits went to Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) in Bradford County. One permit each went to Range Resources and Apex Energy in Beaver and Westmoreland counties, respectively. ANTERO RESOURCES | APEX ENERGY | BEAVER COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | HILCORP ENERGY | MARION COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Court nixes Trump LNG-by-rail rule, citing ‘cataclysmic’ risk - A federal appeals court last week roundly rejected a Trump-era rule that would have expanded rail transport of liquefied natural gas. In a decision issued Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s 2020 rule failed to thoroughly analyze the public safety and environmental risks of transporting the highly flammable fuel on the nation’s railways. Though the chance of a rail accident while transporting LNG is low, the risks if one happens are “dire, if not cataclysmic,” said Judge Florence Pan, writing the court’s unanimous opinion. “A breach of one or more rail cars containing LNG could cause an explosion, an inferno, or the spread of a freezing, flammable, suffocating vapor cloud,” Pan wrote. “The real possibility of such catastrophes significantly affects the quality of the human environment.”

Trump Restarts LNG Export OKs, Moves to Lift Natural Gas, Oil Activity in Declaring ‘National Energy Emergency’ President Trump on Monday issued a suite of executive orders (EO) to increase natural gas, oil and coal production, boost LNG exports and restrict the development of renewable and alternative energy. Graph showing U.S. dry gas production by presidency. The new president promised to achieve “energy dominance” in his inaugural address. He directed federal agencies to immediately begin to reduce regulatory burdens and unlock more domestic energy from coast to coast. Among the many EOs signed on his first day in office, the president said LNG export approvals would be restarted as soon as possible. By declaring a “national energy emergency,” the president may unlock powers to bypass bureaucratic obstacles, allowing power plants and infrastructure to more quickly move forward.

Four U.S. LNG Projects Appear Poised for FID, but Hurdles Remain -- As regulatory headwinds appear to shift and U.S. LNG export developers redouble their efforts to sell volumes, there are signs of major final investment decisions (FID) taking shape in 2025. However, how many and which projects move forward could still be in flux as market dynamics and project momentum clash against financial and legal obstacles for large-scale projects. Graph showing all North American LNG facilities under construction or operational. With President Trump’s second administration kicking off, officials have launched plans for sweeping LNG export deregulation. Those plans have included eliminating policy reforms introduced by the Biden administration and introducing executive orders or national security designations that could sidestep some regulatory reviews. Last year was marked by a regulatory pause for some LNG projects in the United States seeking worldwide exports and softening commodity prices that helped chill development.

Short List of DOE LNG Export Permits Could Be Forming, but Litigation Risk Still Looms -- A handful of LNG projects is poised to accelerate development as President Trump’s sweeping set of executive orders (EOs) aims to cut Biden-era LNG export regulations and accelerate U.S. natural gas exports, according to policy experts. Commercially advanced U.S. LNG export projects impacted by Biden admin's federal review. However, the specific orders contained in Trump’s “Unleashing American Energy” agenda released Monday also could reveal which policies the administration thinks it can push past in the short term and which ones may take longer to unwind. At the top of the list of LNG policies was a directive for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to immediately resume considerations for non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits. Center for LNG Executive Director Charlie Riedl told NGI the order helps set the pace for what could be on the horizon in the coming months, but he also noted the balance White House officials are trying to maintain.

Kinder Morgan Sanctions Trident Natural Gas Pipeline, Expands Mississippi Crossing Project -Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is moving forward with the 1.5 Bcf/d Trident intrastate natural gas pipeline project in Texas that would supply gas to LNG terminals, power plants and industrial users on the coast, management said Wednesday. Map showing Kinder Morgan Inc.'s Gulf Coast assets and nearby LNG export terminals crucial to the natural gas market. The 218-mile, 42-inch and 48-inch diameter pipeline is planned to run from Katy, a gathering point for West Texas gas, to the LNG and industrial corridor near Port Arthur, TX. The Houston-based midstreamer said it expects the project to be in service by the first quarter of 2027. KMI also announced it expanded the Mississippi Crossing (MSX) project after securing additional binding transportation agreements. The $1.6 billion project, greenlit in December, is now designed to transport up to 2.1 Bcf/d natural gas from Greenville, MS to Butler, AL, with project commitments of around 1.8 Bcf/d.

Trump Executive Orders Poised to Jumpstart Delfin LNG Permitting, Future Offshore Export Projects - The Trump administration has directed the federal agency responsible for reviewing offshore LNG export projects to accelerate permitting and revisit decisions made during the Biden administration, potentially putting wind back in the sails of Delfin LNG LLC and other proposed projects. Map showing the Delfin LNG project offshore Louisiana. As a part of President Trump’s “Unleashing American Energy” agenda released Monday, the administration trimmed Biden-era policies and set a new direction for the U.S. Department of Energy with several LNG-focused executive orders (EO). Some of those orders, like ending the pause on non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits, are expected to have an immediate impact on development, while others may be a first step. However, one specific section pertaining to the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD), shows administration officials are paying particular attention to its tools for authorizing LNG projects without incurring legal challenges, LNG Allies CEO Fred Hutchison told NGI.

Rare Gulf Coast Winter Storm Limiting Some Liquefaction Operations — Global natural gas prices were volatile Tuesday as markets weighed near-term factors like wintry weather in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere against President Trump’s return to office in the United States and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The European benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gained for a second straight day as gas demand for power generation remained strong amid weak renewable output, according to Engie EnergyScan. A rare winter storm impacting parts of the Gulf Coast on Tuesday was also limiting LNG output at U.S. facilities and curbing supplies for Europe, which also sent prices higher. The TTF February contract gained about 5% to settle above $15/MMBtu on Tuesday.

US natgas futures fall 5%, while extreme cold boosts spot prices to multi-year highs — U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% to a one-week low on Tuesday even as extreme cold across much of the country drove heating demand to a record high, boosting spot gas and power prices to multi-year highs in several regions. Futures prices declined because freezing weather over the long U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend did not do much to reduce gas output and the latest weather forecasts continued to call for less cold and lower heating demand next week. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 19.2 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $3.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu0 their lowest close since Jan. 9. Even though gas futures eased about 1% last week, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a sixth week in a row to the highest level since September 2021, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Analysts projected energy firms would pull over 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage for a second and third week in a row during the weeks ending Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 to meet soaring heating demand, erasing the small surplus of gas in inventory over the five-year average for the first time since January 2022. Some analysts said storage withdrawals in January could top the current monthly record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. In the spot market gas, prices rose to their highest since January 2024 at several hubs across the country including the U.S. Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) benchmark in Louisiana, Waha (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) in West Texas, Eastern Gas South (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) in Pennsylvania, the Southern California Border (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL), PG&E (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) in Northern California and Chicago (NG-CG-CH-SNL). In the Northeast, meanwhile, gas prices soared to $43 per mmBtu in New York, their highest since hitting an all-time high in Jan. 2018, and climbed to $24 at the Algonquin hub (NG-CG-BS-SNL) in New England, their highest since February 2023. Those jumps in spot gas boosted next-day power prices to a record high of $275 per megawatt hour (MWh) at the PJM West Hub (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) in western Pennsylvania and a 30-month high of $268 in New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX). SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 103.0 bcfd so far in January, due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, freeze-offs helped cause output to slide by around 3.3 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary three-month low of 100.4 bcfd on Tuesday. While curtailments were small so far this winter, analysts and traders warned that freeze-offs could rise with more cold still to come this week. Freeze-offs in past winters cut gas output by roughly 8.1 bcfd from Jan. 9-16 in 2024, 4.6 bcfd from Jan. 31-Feb. 1 in 2023, 15.8 bcfd from Dec. 20-24 in 2022, and 20.4 bcfd from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Feb. 5, except for some near normal days around Jan. 30-Feb. 2. Jan. 20 was the coldest day since last year's Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend when gas demand hit a daily record high and spot prices jumped to multi-year highs at several trading hubs across the country. Some forecasters projected Jan. 21 would be even colder, possibly the coldest since a brutal freeze in Dec. 2022. But with less cold weather coming next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 153.3 bcfd this week to 142.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use so far this winter peaked at 168.2 bcfd on Jan. 20 and could reach 172.2 bcfd on Jan. 21. If correct, demand on Jan. 21 would top the current daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. Adding to total gas demand, the amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.2 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

US natgas prices rise 2% to one-week high on colder forecasts, rising LNG feedgas — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Friday on forecasts calling for colder weather over the next two weeks and an expected increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, due in part to signs Freeport LNG's plant in Texas was back in service after an outage. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.2 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $4.027 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Jan. 16. For the week, the contract was up about 2% after easing about 1% last week. To meet record demand for gas for heat during extreme cold weather this week, analysts projected energy firms pulled 317 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 24. If correct, that would only be the fourth time utilities pulled over 300 bcf from storage in a week, but would fall short of the weekly record 359 bcf withdrawn during a freeze in January 2018. Analysts noted this week's decline should erase the small surplus of gas in inventory over the five-year average for the first time since January 2022, and could boost total withdrawals for the month to a record high. The current all-time monthly withdrawal of 994 bcf was set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 101.9 bcfd so far in January, due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.5 bcfd in December 2023. Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Tuesday. About 5.1 bcfd of that output, however, was already on track to return by Friday. In past years, freeze-offs cut gas output by roughly 8.1 bcfd from Jan. 9-16 in 2024, 4.6 bcfd from Jan. 31-Feb. 1 in 2023, 15.8 bcfd from Dec. 20-24 in 2022, and 20.4 bcfd from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain colder than normal through Jan. 27, before turning mostly near normal from Jan. 28-Feb. 8. With the milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 156.9 bcfd this week to 142.0 bcfd next week and 133.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use peaked at 173.3 bcfd on Jan. 20 and 181.3 bcfd on Jan. 21, easily topping the prior daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.7 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 13.4 bcfd on Friday, up from a nine-month low of 10.6 bcfd on Thursday when Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant was only pulling in about 0.1 bcfd and Cheniere Energy's LNG 2.4-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas was only pulling in about 1.0 bcfd, a 33-month low. Flows to Freeport LNG, which shut on Tuesday due to power issues during a winter storm, were on track to rise to 1.4 bcfd on Friday, up from near zero on Tuesday and Wednesday and 0.1 bcfd on Thursday. That compares with an average of 1.9 bcfd over the prior week.

U.S. Renewable Leader NextEra Energy to Develop Gas-Fired Power for AI - (Reuters) — The world's largest renewable power company, NextEra Energy, is partnering with GE Vernova to develop natural gas-fired power generation projects across the United States that will mainly feed AI data centers and other large electricity users, NextEra said on Friday.NextEra's agreement with GE Vernova comes as natural gas-fired power becomes an increasingly popular electricity option for Big Tech's data centers, while federal support for renewable power is uncertain under the new Trump Administration."Given the current power demand environment, it is more important than ever to unleash all forms of electric generation," NextEra CEO John Ketchum said on a call with analysts about quarterly earnings.Over the next four years, NextEra and GE Vernova plan to develop new power generation projects that could use a combination of natural gas power plants and renewable sources such as solar and battery storage.The agreement is at an early stage, Ketchum said, and will require finding land, developing it, transporting gas to the sites and building power plants using turbines that can take years to deliver. That process may take until 2030, he said.Solar projects can be developed in 18 months and onshore wind in 12 months, he said.NextEra reported a decline in fourth-quarter profit, largely on weakness in its renewables segment.The unit, NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), saw its project backlog increase in the quarter due to growing power demand from data centers amid an artificial intelligence boom, as well as homes and businesses using more electricity for heat and transportation.A one-time loss of $845 million linked to investments in a subsidiary and higher operating expense weighed on the division's overall performance.

States, industry sue to reopen federal waters for drilling - Republican-led states and fossil fuel trade groups are teaming up in a new legal fight to block former President Joe Biden’s 11th-hour protections for 625 million acres of federal waters from oil and gas drilling. President Donald Trump moved to rescind Biden’s actions Monday with an executive order. The lawsuit, filed in federal court Friday by Louisiana Attorney General Elizabeth Murrill, seeks to overturn former President Joe Biden’s decision announced earlier this month to withdraw waters spanning much of the U.S. coastline. Murrill called Biden’s memoranda blocking development “blatantly illegal” and said if it remains in place it would harm Louisiana’s economy.

Trump signs executive orders aiming to boost oil and gas drilling - President Trump late Monday issued a pair of executive orders that seek to bolster oil and gas drilling — including in contentious areas of Alaska. One order seeks to open up drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and National Petroleum Reserve. The other initiates a review of all policies that “burden the development of domestic energy resources.” The latter order also specifically targets former President Biden’s electric vehicle push — stating that it is U.S. policy “to eliminate the ‘electric vehicle (EV) mandate.’” Many of the measures do not necessarily change the rules on the books right away — instead directing federal agencies to begin the lengthy process of undoing Biden policies that also took years to complete. However, one key policy that the second order seeks to revisit could end up preventing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from issuing climate regulations entirely. Specifically, it directs the EPA to reassess the 2009 finding that climate change poses a health risk and should be regulated. It also seeks to resume approvals for new natural gas exports — which the Biden administration had paused until its action was halted in court. Signing the Alaska order in the Oval Office, Trump was particularly enthusiastic about opening up drilling in the wildlife refuge. Drilling in the refuge is particularly controversial because the area is home to wildlife including grizzly bears, polar bears, gray wolves, caribou and more than 200 species of birds. It also contains lands sacred to the Gwich’in people. But Republicans have long-eyed it as a source of oil and a way to bolster the local economy — including of local tribes. The order particularly directs the Interior Department to reinstate drillings rights there that were revoked under the Biden administration and seeks to review a lease sale there by the Biden administration that ultimately flopped. In addition to the electric vehicle rule, the order also targets Biden’s efficiency rules for household appliances, stating that it is U.S. policy to maximize consumer choice in: lightbulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, gas stoves, water heaters, toilets and shower heads. The Trump administration rolled back energy efficiency rules for household appliances in his first term and Trump himself made disparaging the more energy-efficient versions part of his stump speech, taking aim at everything from low-flow toilets to energy-efficient light bulbs in remarks at rallies. Gas stoves, meanwhile, became a hot-button issue among Republicans during the Biden administration after U.S. Consumer Product Safety officials suggested it was exploring restrictions on them due to links to childhood asthma. However, 97 percent of gas stoves on the market already complied with the standards the department finalized last January. It also seeks to revise rules pertaining to construction — seeking to speed up building new projects, which can sometimes come at the expense of environmental reviews. Specifically, the order says that agencies assessing infrastructure projects must “prioritize efficiency and certainty over any other objectives.” Furthermore, the order also directs federal agencies to stop doling out cash issued under the Democrats’ climate, tax and healthcare bill and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. It particularly calls out funds for electric vehicle charging stations. Beyond the wildlife refuge, the order also seeks to open up other areas of Alaska to drilling and other industries. It also directs the administration to reverse Biden policies that limited drilling in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve — which was set aside in 1923 by President Harding as an emergency supply of oil for the Navy. The order also removes Biden-era protections for Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, restoring a 2020 regulation from Trump’s first term that permitted industrial logging in much of the old-growth forest. The Biden administration banned logging and most road construction in most of the area in 2023. The orders take aim at a range of other Biden policies, including its rejection of an Alaska mining road and the American Climate Corps — a climate jobs program.

President Trump declares national energy emergency - President Trump has declared an energy emergency, which his team has said would unlock additional powers to jump-start production. Speaking about the declaration from behind the desk of the Oval Office, Trump said “that means you can do whatever you have to do to get out of that problem. “ “And we do have that kind of an emergency,” he added. The order was invoked under the National Emergencies Act, which gives the president emergency powers. It directs the head of federal agencies to identify any emergency authorities they may have to facilitate the production or processing of energy. It also includes other directives, including telling the head of the agency to consider issuing emergency fuel waivers that allow for the year-round sale of gasoline that contains high ethanol content, which is typically restricted due to smog concerns. Using other laws would invoke additional authorities. Amy Stein, a professor at the University of Florida, has written that depending on the law a president uses to invoke the emergency, their broad range of new powers could include things like emergency measures to protect grid reliability and authorizing the purchase of emergency gas supplies. Nevitt said that the invocation of the Defense Production Act, which can be used to accelerate manufacturing, is also possible. “The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill,” Trump said during his inaugural speech. “America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have, the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it,” he said. The order comes as Trump also ordered a reversal of Biden efforts to protect certain areas from offshore drilling.

Trump national energy emergency, withdraws from climate pact - President Donald Trump on Monday declared a national energy emergency and ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, as he seeks to implement a sweeping agenda aimed at boosting fossil production."The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill," Trump said during his inaugural address. The president promised during his campaign to slash energy costs in half within the first year of his administration.Trump's declaration directed the heads of federal agencies "to identify and exercise any lawful emergency authorities available to them" to facilitate the leasing, siting, production and generation of domestic energy sources including on federal lands."The national energy emergency is crucial because we are in an AI race with China, and our ability to produce domestic American energy is so crucial such that we can generate the electricity and power that's needed to stay at the global forefront of technology," a White House official told reporters earlier Monday.Trump is abandoning the Biden administration's domestic and international commitments to fight climate change. The U.S. will consider its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement to be effective as soon as the U.N. ambassador submits notification to the United Nations, according to the president's executive order. The landmark international treaty seeks to limit rising global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.Trump also signed orders to revoke former President Joe Biden's actions that barred oil and gas drilling in large swathes of the Arctic and in U.S. coastal waters, a move that will likely be contested in court.He also repealed Biden administration goals for half of all new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030, to achieve acarbon-free electricity sector by 2035, and to achieve net-zero emissions no later than 2050. The U.S. has been the largest producer of crude oil in the world for years, outpacing Saudi Arabia and Russia. The CEOs of Exxon and Chevron have said oil and gas production levels are based on market conditions and are unlikely to increase significantly in response to who is in the White House."There's still some upside," Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC's Brian Sullivan in a Jan. 8 interview. "But probably not growth at the rate that we've seen over the last number of years as particularly some of these new shale plays begin to mature," Wirth said.Exxon CEO Darren Woods told CNBC that U.S. shale production has not faced "external restrictions" under the Biden administration."Certainly we wouldn't see a change based on a political change but more on an economic environment," Woods said in a Nov. 1 interview prior to Trump's election victory. "I don't think there's anybody out there that's developing a business strategy to respond to a political agenda," he said.There are areas in the Gulf of Mexico that have not opened up due to federal permitting, Woods said at the time. The Biden administration had planned the fewest oil and gas leases sales in history in a five-year program that runs through 2029. "That could, for the longer term, open up potential sources of supply," Woods said of increasing lease sales.There are several emergency statutes Trump could invoke to increase gasoline and electricity supplies, said Glenn Schwartz, director of energy policy at the consulting firm Rapidan Energy. Emergencies are often loosely defined under federal law, giving the president broad discretion to use them as he sees fit, Schwartz said. And Trump would likely face little pushback from the courts because they are reluctant to challenge presidential determinations related to national security, Schwartz said."What you end up with is that even if Trump were to expand his emergency powers in unprecedented ways, it is not clear that courts would step in to halt any of these resulting actions," the analyst said. However, there is little the president can do to force more oil and gas production, Schwartz said. "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink," the analyst said. "He can give them all the resources they need to be able to drill, but I haven't seen anything that suggests he can force them to take it out of the ground."

\Trump laid out a sweeping energy agenda. Here are all the key actions he took on day one -- President Donald Trump has launched a sweeping offensive on energy during his first hours in office, issuing a raft of executive orders to boost fossil fuel production and roll back U.S. commitments to fight climate change.It's unclear what impact Trump's initial actions will have on the energy industry. The CEOs of Exxon and Chevron have said oil and gas production levels are based on market conditions and are unlikely to change meaningfully in response to Trump's desire to "drill, baby, drill." The U.S. has been the world's largest oil and gas producer for years now. And some of Trump's orders will likely be challenged in court.Still, the president has made a clear political statement that the U.S. is abandoning the Biden administration's focus on fighting climate change through a transition to cleaner energy sources.Instead, Trump is prioritizing fossil fuel projects to "solidify the United States as a global energy leader long into the future." Here are the key actions Trump has taken on energy so far.

• 1. Declares energy emergency. Trump has declared a national energy emergency, arguing that the U.S. faces a "precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid" that threatens national security.Electricity demand is expected to surge in the coming years from data centers that support artificial intelligence and the expansion of domestic manufacturing. The largest grid operator in the U.S., PJM Interconnection, has warned it could face electricity shortfalls as coal plants are retired faster than new capacity is connected to the grid.Trump has directed federal agencies to identify and exercise any lawful emergency authorities available to them to facilitate the production, transportation, refining and generation of domestic energy sources. He also ordered agencies to use all emergency authorities available to expedite new energy infrastructure projects.
• 2. Rolls back climate commitments. Trump ordered the U.S. to begin withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The landmark international treaty seek to limit rising global temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.Under the treaty's terms, a country can exit the agreement one year after providing notification that it intends to withdraw. But Trump's executive order states the U.S. will consider its withdrawal to be effective as soon as the U.N. Secretary-General receives written notification.Trump has also scrapped ambitious Biden administration goals that aimed for half of new cars sales to be electric vehicles, for the electric grid to be free of carbon pollution, and for the economy to produce net-zero emissions.
• 3. Expand drilling, natural gas exports. Trump issued an order to revoke Biden's ban on oil and gas drilling in most U.S. coastal waters. It is unclear whether Trump actually has the authority to do this and the order will likely face litigation. A federal court struck down a similar order by Trump during his first term that sought to reverse President Barack Obama's decision to protect waters in the Arctic and Atlantic.Trump also issued an order Monday that aims to maximize the production of natural resources in Alaska. The order prioritizes the development of liquified natural gas projects and directs the federal government to expedite permitting and leasing of energy projects in the state.The president reversed the Biden administration's pause on new liquified natural gas export facilities. Trump directed the energy secretary to start reviewing new LNG projects as quickly as possible.
• 4. Rolls back clean energy incentives. Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately pause the disbursement of funds under the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden-era climate law that has provided financial support for clean energy.The president specifically ordered a halt to funding for electric vehicle charging stations. He also directed his administration to consider ending subsidies and other policies that favor electric vehicles.Trump targeted wind energy in a standalone executive order. The president temporarily suspended new or renewed leases for offshore and onshore wind projects. He also halted the leasing of wind power projects in the outer continental shelf.

Trump’s ‘energy emergency’ comes amid soaring US oil and gas production - President Donald Trump enters office as U.S. oil and gas production breaks records and gasoline prices hit three-year lows. But that didn’t stop the new president from declaring a “national energy emergency” Monday evening in a bid to boost fossil fuels. “We will drill, baby, drill,” Trump said in his inauguration speech, adding, “We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it.” The order is part of the Trump administration’s sweeping plans to “unleash American energy, which includes executive orders to boost energy production in Alaska, freeze funds from the climate and infrastructure laws and get rid of all regulations that “impose undue burdens” on energy production and use.

Trump ‘energy emergency’ centers on tech boom, national defense - President Donald Trump declared his much-anticipated “energy emergency” Monday that says the U.S. energy supply is “precariously inadequate” to meet the needs of a booming technology industry and national defense. “The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy,” Trump declared. In his inaugural address, Trump riffed on plans to dismantle the Democratic climate agenda (a version of the “Green New Deal”) and go after more “liquid gold” oil and gas. He echoed his pledge during the campaign to declare an emergency over rising energy costs. But it wasn’t until 9:30 p.m. that details and text of the energy emergency emerged. In the preamble to an executive order that carries the weight of the presidency, Trump blamed local and state officials in the Northeast and along the West Coast for risking the nation’s security through their opposition to fossil fuel production and pipelines. Then, he turned to policies under former President Joe Biden.“The policies of the previous administration have driven our Nation into a national emergency, where a precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid, require swift and decisive action,” the order said.“Without immediate remedy,” said the order, “this situation will dramatically deteriorate in the near future due to a high demand for energy and natural resources to power the next generation of technology.”The drip, drip, drip of rumors of executive orders turned into a flood of real ones. Almost as soon as Trump entered the Oval Office for the start of his second term, he rescinded orders signed by Biden directing federal action on energy and climate change. Seventeen in all.Then the new White House began coloring in the lines of a Trump “energy dominance” agenda that, by its very nature, is a dramatic shift away from the American pursuit of lower greenhouse gas emissions and a much cleaner energy portfolio. In one order, Trump directed agencies and departments to “eliminate harmful, coercive ‘climate’ policies that increase the costs of food and fuel.” “In particular, the assault on plentiful and reliable American energy through unnecessary and illegal regulatory demands has driven up the cost of transportation and manufacturing,” wrote the White House as it described one of Trump’s first major energy orders. Before heading to the inaugural balls, Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris international climate agreement for a second time in eight years. He froze pending regulations, a step toward the promised deregulatory blitz. Soon, he would sign orders to boost domestic mining of critical minerals used by big technology companies, battery makers and the defense industry. He planned to halt federal leasing for wind power and reverse pollution standards that have spurred the production of electric vehicles. With the flare of a master showman, Trump sat in front of the cameras, signed orders and complimented his nominees for Interior and Energy secretaries, Doug Burgum and Chris Wright. With that, U.S. energy policy swung again toward fossil fuels. The United States produces more oil than any other country, and it exports the most natural gas. The crisis is in electricity — the need for more power plants and pipelines to produce more electricity isn’t keeping up with a rapidly expanding high-tech economy.Trump’s emergency declaration tied actions to increase the nation’s electricity to a national defense purpose. The order directs the secretary of Defense, working with the Interior and Energy secretaries, to make a 60-day assessment of vulnerabilities that could limit the supply of electricity, oil, gas and other fuels “needed to protect the homeland.” A 2015 law requires the Energy Department to identify military facilities that could be immobilized if the power grid were knocked out by an attack or natural disaster. A focus of the 60-day study will be inadequate refining and transportation infrastructure needed to move energy within the Northeast and West Coast. Shortages of electric power during extreme weather didn’t get a mention. But the secretary of Energy has wide-ranging authority to take actions to protect or restore the reliability of electricity infrastructure in an emergency. How the Trump administration will use that authority remains to be seen. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., the nation’s power grid monitor, has warned of the dangers of blackouts during periods of extreme heat and cold. Most of America’s electric grids face “mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years,” NERC said in a December report. Power demand for new data centers to serve the booming artificial intelligence business is surging. Solar power and battery storage projects are not keeping up with the announced and planned retirements of coal- and gas-fired generation.“The trends point to critical reliability challenges facing the industry: satisfying escalating energy growth, managing generator retirements, and accelerating resource and transmission development,” the report said. NERC Chief Executive Jim Robb spelled out the challenge. “We’ve got to figure out how to build a new generation,” he said last week. “We’ve got to figure out how to build long-distance transmission, and those projects don’t happen quickly, despite exhortations.” Clues to Trump’s energy emergency plans may have been dropped last week by Burgum during his Senate confirmation hearing as Trump’s choice to lead Interior. Burgum has also been assigned to coordinate a new White House National Energy Council. Following Burgum’s appearance, ClearView Energy Partners published an analysis noting that Burgum repeatedly described the grid’s crisis as a shortage of “baseload” power, most likely referring to gas- and coal-fired power plants that can run steadily, independent of the weather or sunlight. “Electricity is at the brink,” Burgum said. “Our grid is at a point where it could go completely unstable.” Older coal-plants that struggle to compete in energy markets are candidates for retirement. But with electricity prices relatively high, gas-fired power plants have reason to stay open, particularly if Trump cancels the Biden administration’s restrictions on power plant carbon emissions. “Trump’s only legal directive is to order EPA to reconsider regulations that impact fossil fuel generation, as he is likely to do, in order to keep such entities profitable,” said Brett Hartl, governmental affairs director for the Center for Biological Diversity. Almost 80,000 megawatts of power plants, dominated by gas- and coal-fired units, are listed as confirmed retirements over the next decade. Plant owners have announced plans to retire another 115,000 MW in the coming decade. Most of new generation projects proposed to replace the shuttered capacity are either solar or solar-battery combinations, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports. EIA projects that about 50,000 MW of new generation will come online by the end of 2026, not a one-for-one replacement because renewable power meets only one-third to one-half of the same amount of gas-fired capacity that shuts down. Robb has warned that grid operators have to face the possibility that more than 200,000 MW of new power demand than was anticipated just a few years ago will be needed for new data centers. The crisis point could come in a future brutal winter storm when gas production pumps and processing equipment freezes and wind and solar power drops to near zero. Moreover, even if gas infrastructure holds up, pipeline capacity additions over the past seven years have trended downward, and some parts of the U.S. could run short of gas resources in the worst winter weather.To Trump, it’s simply about incompetence.“Our country can no longer deliver basic services in times of emergency,” Trump said during his inaugural speech. People are still suffering from Hurricane Helene that touched down in Florida and barreled across the Southeast, Trump noted. “More recently Los Angeles, where we’re watching fires still tragically burned from weeks ago without even a token of defense,” he said. Trump the candidate repeated false claims that the Federal Energy Management Agency had run out of funds because it had spent its budget helping immigrants illegally enter the United States. California Gov. Gavin Newsom opened a webpage to counter Trump’s claims about the causes of the wildfire catastrophe. “Everyone is unable to do anything about it. That’s going to change,” Trump said Monday. How FEMA responds to disasters and how federal agencies charged with ensuring the reliability of electricity in the face of climate change are now his responsibility.

Trump's executive orders include major energy, climate moves: What to know -President Trump issued a broad slew of energy policies and efforts to roll back environmental protections on his first day in office. The moves excited supporters and the fossil fuel industry. American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers, for example, said in a written statement that Trump’s moves “chart a new path where U.S. oil and natural gas are embraced, not restricted.”But they worried environmentalists, who warned that the orders would ultimately be bad for the planet.“The theme that runs throughout is to maximize both the supply of and the demand for fossil fuels, which is precisely the opposite of what we need to do to address the climate crisis,” Michael Gerrard, founder of Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, told The Hill. Here are some of the measures that could be the most impactful.

• Blocking new wind energy projects - Trump on Monday issued an executive order that barred the government from auctioning off the rights to build wind farms offshore and also temporarily blocked new rights for wind on public lands. In addition, the order directs the Interior Department to halt the construction of a wind farm in Idaho that was approved under the Biden administration.nTrump has long railed against wind as an energy source, calling windmills ugly and claiming that they have killed birds. According to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wind turbines can kill birds, but fewer than house cats and fossil fuels do.The wind industry and climate advocates alike expressed concern about the order — noting that it could disrupt the industry and prevent the build-out of carbon-free power. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) was among the critics of the action, writing on the social platform X that it would “raise the cost of energy, kill thousands of skilled trades jobs, and threaten billions of dollars of planned investments in rural communities.”
• Revisiting the EPA’s finding that climate change is dangerous -- mAnother executive order Trump signed directs the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revisit its 2009 finding that climate change is dangerous, a key policy that underlies many agency regulations.In 2007, the Supreme Court ruled that the EPA has the authority to regulate planet-warming gases if it determines they pose a threat to public health. In 2009, it did just that, saying that greenhouse gases “endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.” Some observers said the order was an attempt to undermine climate rules en masse. Stan Meiburg, who was the EPA’s acting No. 2 during the Obama administration, told The Hill via email that overturning the finding would mean greenhouse gases “would no longer be recognized as pollutants under the meaning of that term in the Clean Air Act, and so therefore the Act would not apply to them.” He added that this could lead to the undoing of a number of climate regulations, “with particular impact” on regulations impacting cars and power plants.
• Moves to speed up fossil fuel infrastructure - Trump’s orders made a number of moves aimed at speeding up both fossil fuel projects specifically and infrastructure projects broadly. The actions, which included the declaration of a “national energy emergency” as well as orders aimed at bolstering oil and gas drilling, may not only expand the nation’s fossil fuel build-out but also restrict its consideration of the environment during the construction process. The order was invoked under the National Emergencies Act, which gives the president emergency powers. Trump’s team said the powers it unlocked would enable the administration to jump-start energy production. “The biggest thing that it unlocks is more rapid leasing, siting and permitting for oil and gas production,” “It’s trying to really expedite fossil fuel exploration and production by either removing impediments or trying to speed up processes that are currently slow,” he added, noting that laws that protect water and endangered species are among those that the order targets.
• Blocking Biden’s climate cash -Another of the major provisions in a lengthy order is a directive to “pause the disbursement” of funds that come from the Democrats’ signature climate law as well as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The laws allocated billions toward clean-energy projects and incentives, including tax credits for renewable energy and the purchase of electric vehicles. The Biden administration already disbursed much of the funding, racing to get money out the door in its final months.But freezing further funds from the laws could still have a notable impact.“He’s directly interfering with the way the Inflation Reduction Act plays out to help incentivize clean energy transition,” said Sam Sankar, senior vice president for programs at Earthjustice. Sankar noted that the climate law in particular covers “an enormous range of things” from air pollution monitoring to tax credits for low-carbon energy sources. Ewing also noted that the law enables the Energy Department to disburse loans to climate-friendly energy projects. He said that even a temporary pause in funding under the laws that President Biden signed could lead to fewer investments in the industries the laws are designed to support.

Trump names slate of acting energy, enviro bosses - President Donald Trump on Monday named a roster of officials to lead federal energy and environmental agencies until his nominees are confirmed by the Senate.Walter Cruickshank will serve as the Interior Department’s acting secretary, the White House announced on a website detailing picks for temporary agency leaders. Trump’s nominee to lead Interior, Doug Burgum, is awaiting Senate confirmation.Ingrid Kolb will serve as acting Energy secretary while Trump’s DOE nominee, Chris Wright, awaits Senate confirmation. James Payne will act as acting EPA administrator. Trump has nominated Lee Zeldin for that Senate-confirmed post.

Trump Freezes Department of Energy’s $50 Billion Budget - In a sweeping move that halts billions in spending, President Trump’s administration has frozen the Department of Energy's (DOE) activities pending a comprehensive review of its alignment with his priorities. According to a memo from acting Energy Secretary Ingrid Kolb, the freeze affects grants, loans, procurement, studies, and even personnel decisions, effectively bringing the agency’s $50 billion budget to a standstill. Beyond bureaucratic tinkering, the halt is a direct shot at dismantling Biden-era climate policies. The DOE’s Loan Programs Office, holding $41.2 billion in conditional commitments to energy technology companies, now finds its purse strings tightly cinched. Other critical missions, like nuclear waste cleanup and maintenance of emergency crude reserves, are similarly on pause. The order mirrors an earlier Trump directive freezing funds tied to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and a bipartisan infrastructure law, both of which allocated billions for clean energy initiatives. Trump, who has championed fossil fuels as a cornerstone of his energy policy, has made it clear that climate-focused spending is no longer a federal priority. The Interior Department issued a similar freeze on wind and solar project leases on federal lands and waters. While the Trump administration’s goal is to “unleash” American energy by cutting red tape, critics argue that freezing investments in innovative technologies jeopardizes long-term energy security. For now, the DOE and the clean energy sector are left in limbo pending the results of a review that could redefine the nation’s energy landscape. While critics—including US oil companies—have highlighted Trump’s seemingly contradictory approach to oil markets: pressuring OPEC to lower global oil prices while promoting a “drill, baby, drill” mantra domestically, his regulatory rollbacks and anti-renewable agenda appear to be a bone tossed to U.S. oil companies, clearing the way for fossil fuel development and potentially boosting their bottom lines, even as global oil dynamics remain a tug-of-war.

Acting Interior secretary names temporary leadership team - Acting Interior Secretary Walter Cruickshank has appointed more than a dozen acting agency directors and key leadership team members who will begin implementing President Donald Trump’s new vision for the agency. The temporary Interior Department appointments include Karen Hawbecker as acting Interior solicitor, who currently serves as associate solicitor for the Division of Mineral Resources, and Jessica Bowron, the National Park Service’s comptroller, filling in as acting NPS director. Other notable appointments outlined in a secretarial order Cruickshank signed Monday include Scott Cameron — who previously served as Interior’s acting assistant secretary for policy, management and budget in the first Trump administration — as a senior adviser to the secretary. Cameron will also fill two other temporary posts: assistant secretary for water and science, and assistant secretary for insular and international affairs, according to the order.

Trump team could bring both ax and scalpel to Interior - The Interior Department presents many targets of opportunity for hard chargers in the second Trump administration. Oil and gas production could be fast-tracked in Alaska and the Lower 48 states. Budgets could be cut, science offices closed, and endangered species rules rewritten. In what amounts to a one-two punch, President-elect Donald Trump’s Interior appointees will be positioned in the short term to rescind and reverse many Biden administration policies. In the long term, Trump’s effort to reduce the size of government — the “Department of Government Efficiency” — could seek deeper cuts to the department of some 70,000 employees, including trying to shrink the size of the workforce. But getting rid of too many career employees might actually make it harder to move forward on Trump’s deregulation priorities or his oft-stated desire to boost oil and gas drilling on public lands, noted both a longtime Interior observer and a former department insider.“I would expect many of the career people to take early retirement or just bail out depending on how bad things get,” said Pat Parenteau, an emeritus professor of law and senior fellow for climate policy at the Vermont Law and Graduate School. Parenteau predicted this could create a “huge loss of institutional memory and competence that could actually impede the Trump fossil fuel agenda” because the “midlevel managers and worker bees are far more important to mission execution than the political appointees.” One Republican former Interior secretary likewise cautioned that big cuts could backfire and undermine some of Trump’s key priorities. “[Interior’s] managing 20 percent of the land in the United States. It’s a big responsibility,” noted Gale Norton, who served as Interior secretary under former President George W. Bush. “It’s not an area where there are large areas of employees doing the same thing.” With its authority over 500 million acres of federal lands, 700 million acres of subsurface minerals and 23 percent of the nation’s energy production, Interior will nonetheless present a particularly inviting target for the Trump team that will include both formal officeholders and wide-roaming advisers. Among the latter, billionaire businessman Elon Musk is recruiting like-minded activists to join him as part of the Trump administration’s commission aimed at reducing the federal budget and finding inefficiencies. “We need super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries willing to work 80+ hours per week on unglamorous cost-cutting,” the Department of Government Efficiency posted on X, the social media site also owned by Musk. Even without self-styled revolutionaries stalking departmental hallways, every new administration can try to wipe out its predecessor’s work. Three months into her term, for instance, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland in April 2021 rescinded in one fell swoop a dozen orders issued by her Republican predecessors. Any one of these rescinded GOP orders might now be revived, touching everything from energy production in Alaska to the streamlining of environmental reviews. One legal opinion that’s bounced back and forth involves the valuable mineral estate beneath the surface of North Dakota’s Lake Sakakawea. The lake within the reservation of the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation was created by the construction of the Garrison Dam on the Missouri River. A 2017 Interior solicitor’s opinion concluded the Three Affiliated Tribes held title to the riverbed mineral estate. The first Trump administration changed course and ruled the minerals belonged to the state of North Dakota.The Biden administration in 2022 then determined otherwise, and returned the mineral ownership to the tribes. If North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) wins confirmation as Interior secretary from the Republican-led Senate, he could direct changes in any number of secretarial orders and solicitor’s opinions, as well as regulations finalized during the Biden administration.Potentially vulnerable regulations that have discomfited conservatives include high bonding for oil and gas leases, new conservation rules in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, and the Bureau of Land Management’s public lands rule, which requires activities like oil and gas drilling be coordinated with conservation priorities. Under the co-leadership of Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the new Department of Government Efficiency could meanwhile be digging into every Interior nook and cranny.

Hard freeze to hit chem plants on US Gulf Coast, threatens operations (ICIS)–Temperatures along the US Gulf Coast should fall well below freezing later in the week and remain there for a prolonged stretch, threatening operations at chemical plants and refineries. Temperatures already reached freezing on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures should fall further Monday night, with a chance of rain, sleet and snow.Houston could get snow on Tuesday before temperatures plunge to 18 degrees Fahrenheit (-8 degrees Celsius). Temperatures will fall below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Until recently, temperatures rarely fell below freezing along the Gulf Coast, so it was unlikely that chemical companies designed their plants to be more resilient during frigid weather.Since 2021, freezes have become annual events along the Gulf Coast, and companies have started taking precautions. Dow escaped the freeze of December 2022 largely unscathed.However, during that same 2022 cold spell, TotalEnergies did shut down its polypropylene (PP) operations in La Porte, Texas, even though it took all possible precautions to prepare for the cold weather. Even if plants avoid damage from cold weather, they could still shut down if they lose power or natural gas.If the forecasts for sleet and snow hold true, then this could cause powerlines to snap.Spikes in demand for heating can overwhelm the power grid in Texas, leading to widespread blackouts. Chemical plants and refineries rely on electricity to power motors and pumps. As of Monday, power supply should be sufficient to meet demand through 26 January,according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the flow of electricity in most of the state. The following chart shows ERCOT’s power forecast.

UPDATE: US freeze shuts numerous chem plants, major ports | ICIS –Winter storm Enzo, which caused a hard freeze along the US Gulf Coast, led to widespread shutdowns among chemical plants and refineries. Companies shut down at least five ethylene glycol (EG) units and at least eight crackers because of bad weather. Other plants, such as a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit, also shut down.Pre-emptive shutdowns and operational disruptions reported so far include:

• BASF idles Geismar, Louisiana, EO operations following winter weather
• BASF TotalEnergies cracker shuts down due to weather
• Dow’s Plaquemine, Louisiana, glycol ethers site down following winter weather
• Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, glycol ethers site down following winter weather
• Dow idles Taft, Louisiana, EO site following winter weather
• Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, ethanolamines site down following winter weather
• Enterprise’s PDH1 unit in Texas has unplanned shutdown
• Formosa shuts Louisiana PVC unit ahead of freeze
• GCGV Portland, Texas, EG site down ahead of freezing temperatures
• Indorama’s Clear Lake, Texas, EG site down for winter weather
• Indorama Lake Charles cracker shut due to weather
• Indorama shuts Port Neches, Texas, cracker ahead of winter storm
• Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, ethanolamines unit down due to winter weather
• Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, EG unit down ahead of winter weather
• Ingleside, Texas, cracker shut before winter storm
• LACC Lotte/Westlake Louisiana cracker and EG unit down ahead of winter weather
• Lyondell Channelview, Texas, crackers flaring on operations issues
• Lyondell La Porte, Texas, cracker shutting due to weather
• Shell’s Geismar, Louisiana, EO, EG site down following winter weather

Motiva’s refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, experienced unexpected interruptions and shutdowns of several critical pieces of equipment, it said in a filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The disruptions caused emissions at a catalytic reformer, a fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit and a delayed coker unit. Renewable Biofuels conducted a planned shutdown at its biodiesel plant in Port Neches, Texas, for freeze protection, according to a filing with the TCEQ.In some cases, midstream companies reported freeze offs and hydrates forming.If these happen on a wide enough scale, they could interrupt the supply of natural gas. Chemical plants and refineries burn natural gas to produce process heat, and power plants use it to produce electricity.Ports in Houston and New Orleans were closed through Wednesday because of cold weather.Container vessel operations will begin at Port Houston at 19:00 local time on Wednesday, while all Port Houston facilities will begin normal operations on Thursday. Texas avoided the widespread power outages that had led to several plant shutdowns during winter storm Uri in 2021.Temperatures rose above freezing during Wednesday, and daily highs should continue to rise as the week progresses.

Permian Basin Oil and Gas Output Faces Disruption Due to Freezing Temperatures Texas' top electricity regulator issued a "Weather Watch" from Monday morning through Thursday, citing "extreme cold weather" and the potential for snow, which could send electrical demand soaring across the state. According to the National Weather Service, snow is forecasted to begin in Houston on Monday evening and accumulate to upwards of 4 inches by Tuesday. After the snow, frigid temperatures are expected to sweep in, bringing dangerously cold conditions that could jeopardize the power grid and energy infrastructure. "Weather Watch goes into effect today through January 23 due to forecasted extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves," the Electric Reliability Council of Texas wrote on X, adding, "Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal." Tony Fracasso, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, said, "It's a significant storm for so far south." "It looks like almost the entirety of Texas has some chance of wintery precipitation," Fracasso noted. The early alert issued by ERCOT implies that extreme cold could pressure the power grid. ERCOT stated that peak electricity demand is expected to rise over the next two days, reaching about 77.2 gigawatts. Even though ERCOT predicts high demand, it anticipates having sufficient supply to meet demand. "As freezing temps blanket Texas, the power grid is performing better than ever," Governor Greg Abbott wrote on X Sunday evening, adding, "There is ample supply of power available to meet your needs." Besides potential grid strains, frigid temperatures could curtail natural gas supplies due to the freezing of oil and gas wells and pipes, known as "freeze-offs" by energy analysts. On Tuesday, West Texas temperatures will average around 29F. Through Saturday, average temperatures in the oil-rich Permian basin will remain below the 30-year average of 47F for this time of year. This cold could disrupt oil and gas output by freezing water in wells and pipelines. Ahead of the snow, Houston Airports announced that flights at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, William P. Hobby Airport, and Ellington Airport will be suspended on Tuesday morning. The storm is expected to blanket snow across the Gulf Coast and Deep South coastal areas. Meteorologist Tony Pann questioned if this wintery weather for the Gulf Coast was a "once-in-a-lifetime event"...

Crews Extinguish Kinder Morgan Pipeline Fire in Wharton County — On Jan. 22, a fire broke out on the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, operated by Kinder Morgan, in Wharton County, Texas, according to KHOU 11. Authorities urged residents to steer clear of the area around Highway 90, between East Bernard and Lissie, as emergency crews worked to address the incident. According to KHOU 11, the Wharton County Sheriff’s Office said that Kinder Morgan began shutting off the gas valve connected to the pipeline. Despite these efforts, the fire continued to burn for a time due to residual pressure. By mid-afternoon, aerial footage showed a significant reduction in the flames. No injuries were reported, and Highway 90 remained open. However, officials advised the public to avoid the vicinity as a precaution. Kinder Morgan issued a statement to KHOU 11 confirming the fire was linked to a pipeline failure that occurred at approximately 12:35 p.m. Central Time. The affected segment of the Tennessee Gas Pipeline was promptly isolated and shut down. According to the company, the fire was fully extinguished, and all personnel were accounted for. Authorities are investigating the cause of the incident.

9th Circuit blocks oil lease sales in sage grouse habitat - A federal appeals court has largely upheld rulings that blocked the Interior Department’s oil and gas lease sales on public lands within protected greater sage grouse habitat.The 9th U.S. Court of Appeals found in a split decision Friday that federal district courts in Idaho and Montana had mostly gotten it right when they found Interior’s Bureau of Land Management violated federal law when the agency offered the public lands lease sales in Western states. At the same time, the 9th Circuit ruled that one court had gone too far by tossing out thousands of leases from five disputed sales. Both sides of the case claimed wins from Friday’s decision.

Oil Price Drop Could Hurt US Producers If OPEC Heeds Trump's Call - During his virtual appearance at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the president questioned why OPEC+ has not done more to lower global crude prices, a move he said would heap more pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. "I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil," Trump announced, later adding: "You've got to bring down the oil price, you've got to end that war. They should have done it long ago; they're very responsible actually, to a certain extent, for what's taken place." Capital Economics in a note said that these comments reflect Trump's desire to deliver lower prices at the pump for US drivers. However, in doing so, Trump may be brushing aside US oil producers, the firm said. Though non-OPEC production takes up most of the world's oil market share, oil from the Saudi-led coalition still accounts for a significant chunk of the market. In other words, how the cartel adjusts production to shift supply matters to other oil-producing countries. This dynamic was illustrated in 2020. A disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia led both countries to flood the market with extra supply, tanking crude prices at a time when the market was already being hurt by the pandemic. This resulted in pain for US producers, and sparked a spate of bankruptcies, mergers, and layoffs. The two-month price war ended with a nudge from Trump. The president threatened to pull US troops out of Saudi Arabia if production cuts weren't implemented, making prices more manageable for American firms. Nearly five years have passed, and the US energy industry is no less sensitive to pricing volatility. Lower prices chip away at profitability and offer less incentive to boost productivity. "With estimates putting breakeven oil prices for new wells in key oil-producing regions in the US between $60-70pb, oil prices wouldn't have to fall that far from current levels (~$75pb for WTI oil) before it would become uneconomic to develop some of these higher-cost new wells," Capital Economics wrote. "And it would be a big blow to Trump's obvious aspirations to exploit Alaska's even higher-cost oil resources." The president has made drilling a core part of his platform, given his view that US producers have been unfairly constrained by regulation. But with America pumping out crude at historic highs, even industry insiders have questioned the need for expanded production.

Trump Order Offers a Chance to Revive Keystone XL Pipeline - President Donald Trump appears to have opened the door for construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, the controversial oil conduit that even its former developer doesn’t want to build. A Biden administration executive order that revoked Trump’s March 2019 permit for the pipeline was among the directives rescinded by the newly elected president Monday. The decision appears to have put Keystone XL back in play — even if it may now be little more than symbolic. It’s unlikely that the multibillion-dollar 1,200-mile project to build the pipeline from Canada to Nebraska would proceed anytime soon — if ever. South Bow Corp., the oil pipeline business spun off from TC Energy Corp., hasn’t indicated interest in a revival. “We’ve moved on from Keystone XL,” South Bow’s chief executive officer, Bevin Wirzba, told Bloomberg last June. Former President Joe Biden revoked Trump’s permit allowing Keystone to cross the US-Canada border hours after taking office in January 2021. Since then, parts of the system — which runs through Alberta, Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska — have been dismantled. ‘Virtually all of the permits along the way have expired,” Anthony Swift, a senior director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in an interview. “So it would be starting from ground one to resuscitate the project.” A White House spokesman didn’t comment on the matter. Trump and other Republicans attacked Biden’s decision to kill the pipeline, blaming the move for increasing gas prices and using it to paint Democrats as anti-oil. The pipeline’s shift in fortunes unfolded despite Trump’s insistence that the US doesn’t need Canadian crude oil. “We don’t need their oil and gas,” Trump said Thursday in a remote presentation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “We have more than anybody.” The case of the Keystone pipeline underscores his zeal to revoke many Biden policies — even if the reversal was rhetorical and he didn’t yet have his own policies to replace them. “The previous administration has embedded deeply unpopular, inflationary, illegal and radical practices within every agency and office of the federal government,” Trump said in his executive order, calling it “the first of many steps the United States federal government will take to repair our institutions and our economy.”

About 12% of North Dakota's oil output shut down by cold weather (Reuters) - North Dakota's oil production was estimated to be down by between 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 150,000 bpd due to extreme cold weather and related operational challenges, the state's pipeline authority said on Monday. North Dakota is the third-largest oil-producing state in the country and the impacted production represents about 12% of the region's 1.1 million bpd of oil output, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Associated wellhead natural gas production was estimated to be down by about 350 million cubic feet per day (mcfpd) to 430 mcfpd, or about 11% of the state's natural gas output. Temperatures in the region will warm up in the coming days and the majority of lost production is expected to be back online over the next four to seven days, said Justin Kringstad, Director of North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes --Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with market experts attributing the decline to the bearish nature of President Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda on oil prices. True to word, Trump signed an executive order on Monday repealing former President efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and along large areas off the U.S. coasts. Trump also repealed a 2023 memo that barred oil drilling in some 16 million acres (6.5 million hectares) in the Arctic. However, it’s going to take a lot more to lure oil executives to ramp up oil production. The latest Baker Hughes survey has revealed that U.S. oil drilling has declined dramatically to just one rig above its post-pandemic lows. Active oil drilling rigs fell by two w/w to 478 in the latest survey, leaving activity just one rig above its post-pandemic low; 149 rigs below November 2002’s post-pandemic high and 73 rigs lower than at the time of President Trump’s 2017 inauguration. The rig count has been in a downwards trend for over two years, with companies’ strategies remaining relatively conservative and productivity gains allowing output growth with fewer active rigs. Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that drilling will remain subdued in 2025, primarily because oil prices remain too low in real terms to justify expansion during a period of significant cost inflation. Falling profits are likely to override oil companies’ attempts to rapidly ramp up U.S. oil output. Two years ago, the Biden administration urged U.S. companies to increase production in a bid to bring down fuel prices. Back then, oil prices were hovering around $100 per barrel and oil companies were raking in record profits. However, last year witnessed a sharp slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, primarily caused by a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024, with low oil prices disincentivizing more drilling. StanChart expects this trend to continue, with U.S. liquids growth expected to clock in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 before slowing down further to 151 kb/d in 2026. Over the past five years, oil and gas companies have been returning a bigger chunk of their profits to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. With oil prices declining over the past two years, these companies have resorted to borrowing more to keep their shareholders happy. Indeed, Bloomberg reported in late October that four of the world’s five oil “supermajors” saw fit to borrow $15 billion to fund share buybacks between July and September. According to a Bloomberg analysis, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron(NYSE:CVX), TotalÉnergies (NYSE:TTE), and BP(NYSE:BP) wouldn’t have enough cash on hand to cover the dividends and share buybacks their investors are demanding, let alone increase their capital expenditure to drill more. “Borrowing to buy back shares isn’t uncommon in the oil business,” Bloomberg explained. “But a dimming outlook for oil prices next year means the cash shortfall is apt to continue over the longer term,” at a time when investors’ expectations for immediate returns continue. There are other structural and technical challenges that could limit how quickly the U.S. Shale Patch increases oil production under Trump. According to commodity experts at Standard Chartered, U.S oil production, and particularly unconventional (shale oil) production, has changed significantly from the time Trump first took office in 2017. StanChart points out that U.S. crude output clocked in at 13.40 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2024, an all-time high above the previous record of 3.31 mb/d set in December 2023. U.S. crude production has increased by 4.7 mb/d since the pandemic-era low of May 2020; however, it’s just 0.4 mb/d higher than the pre-pandemic high of November 2019, working out to an annual production growth rate of just 80 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) over this timeframe. StanChart notes that the dynamics of U.S. shale oil production make long-term supply increases difficult to maintain, noting that the country’s oil production is dominated by a few majors and independent producers, alongside private companies, rather than a national oil company as is often the case with many OPEC producers. These companies have largely left behind their trigger-happy, drill-baby-drill days and adopted strict capital discipline, eschewing rapid production increases in favor of returning more capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. StanChart also points out that extensive M&A activity in the sector has reduced the number of operating companies, changing the landscape from a patchwork of small producer acreages to larger contiguous acreage. This new modus operandi allows for complex drilling and completion techniques, including multi-pad wells with extremely long lateral sections that are able to optimize spacing and associated infrastructure. These drilling and completion efficiency gains have allowed production to continue growing despite a decline in rig count. StanChart’s views appear to match those of Goldman Sachs’. According to GS, technological and efficiency gains have accounted for virtually all growth by the Texas-New Mexico shale basin since 2020; however, the bank has warned that “the Permian is maturing, and its deteriorating geology will weigh on the production of crude oil down the road.” The Permian rig count has declined nearly 15% from last year’s April high to 309 currently, and is 30% lower than its 2018-2019 average, Goldman Sachs has revealed. Earlier, GS predicted that the Permian rig count will be below 300 by the end of 2025.

Will Canada’s LNG Exports Matter for AECO Natural Gas Prices? - The LNG Canada project in Kitimat, British Columbia (BC), is poised to ship its first cargoes by mid-year, offering a long-awaited outlet for pent-up Canadian natural gas. Opinions vary, however, as to the long-term impact of Canadian exports on local prices and supply/demand balances. Graph showing NOVA AECO C forward basis natural gas prices versus Canada's natural gas production according to data compiled by Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). The Shell plc-led project, which would boast 14 million tons/year (Mt/y), or 1.8 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity in its first phase, would allow Canadian gas to reach premium priced markets, namely the Asia Pacific region. LNG Canada Phase 1, along with the under-construction Woodfibre LNG and recently sanctioned Cedar LNG, would add a combined 19 Mt/y, or 2.5 Bcf/d of export capacity by 2028 if works progress according to schedule. Meanwhile, Canadian gas production continues to break records, exacerbating basis price discounts at the NOVA/AECO C and Westcoast Station 2 hubs in Alberta and BC, respectively.

Coatzacoalcos LNG Project Could Spur Mexico Natural Gas Consumption, Developer Says -- A modular LNG project at Coatzacoalcos on the Gulf of Mexico could be online quickly and serve to develop the region’s natural gas networks, according to financial advisor Diego Pecoraro. None Pecoraro serves as a partner at Sun Peak Energy, a Mexico City-based consultancy. Sun Peak Energy has been retained by Comercializadora Aqualita SA and Casarve Servicios SRL to facilitate the sale of Coatzacoalcos II, a proposed LNG greenfield terminal situated in the Port of Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico. Pecoraro has more than 12 years of experience in mergers and acquisitions and development projects and has worked on renewable energy projects, storage, hydrocarbon terminals and commercial real estate across Latin America for international companies including BBVA, EMX Capital, EY, Siemens Gamesa and Trina Solar.

Argentina Signs MOU With Indian Natural Gas Buyers as Competition for LNG Projects Seen Mounting -- Argentina’s state energy firm Yacimentos Petroliferos SA, or YPF, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for LNG delivery with India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp., Gas Authority of India Ltd. and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Ltd. The agreement could be worth up to 10 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG, YPF executives said. YPF officials flew to New Delhi where they signed the deal with the country’s petroleum and gas minister, Hardeep Sinh Puri.

Germany Expanding LNG Import Capacity Despite Drop in FSRU Utilization Rates -- Germany is continuing to build up its LNG import capacity at a time when the country’s gas consumption is declining. Bar graph showing Germany's LNG imports by country of origin. Two more floating, storage and regasification units (FSRUs) are slated to come online this year that are expected to increase Germany's annual LNG import capacity to nearly 29 billion cubic meters (Bcm). More LNG is flowing into Europe this winter as colder weather has drawn down storage inventories at faster rates than in recent years. Germany is Europe’s largest gas consumer, but the facilities are coming online despite concerns over the reduction in average utilization rates at existing FSRUs last year and the more than $4 billion in state subsidies needed to fund the cost of leasing the units.

Europe Faces $6 Billion Gas Bill to Refill Shrinking Stocks After Winter Supply Plunge (Reuters) — Europe may have to buy at least 100 additional gas cargoes this summer, worth around $6 billion at today's prices, to replenish gas stocks after a plunge in storage levels this winter due to cold weather and a stoppage of Russian supply. EU gas storage sites have emptied faster this year than in recent winters and are currently 59% full, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That is much lower than this time last year, when storage was still 75% full, or the 79% filling level at the same time in 2023, after the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By the end of March, storage levels could drop to as low as 30-35% of capacity, said Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit. EU gas storage was 58% full at end-March last year. If storage drops to 35% full - around 38 billion cubic meters (Bcm) - European buyers will need to find an extra 12 Bcm of gas on the global market this summer, compared with 2024, Energy Aspects analyst Erisa Pasko said. That 12 Bcm equates to around 120 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers worth $6 billion at today's prices, according to Reuters calculations. "Europe will need to maintain high prices to continue attracting spot and divertible LNG supply away from Asia," Pasko said. The storage concerns are helping to prop up already high European gas prices, which are trading at 14-month highs, also boosted by cold weather and the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine. Europe's higher demand for refilling storage is also reflected in high gas prices for the summer months, which are more expensive than contracts covering next winter. This is unusual and last occurred in late 2021 and 2022, when Russia's Gazprom stopped filling its European storages, according to LSEG data. Energy Aspects expects summer EU gas prices of 49.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), accounting for the loss of some Russian LNG due to U.S. sanctions. Front-month TTF gas prices were trading at around 49 euros/MWh on Wednesday, up from 27.70 euros/MWh a year ago - but still far below their peak above 300 euros/MWh dur Analysts and industry agree that European gas shortages are unlikely this year. Even Slovakia, the country hit hardest by the end of Ukraine gas transit, has said it has enough supply and storage to cover 2025. "We're really not concerned about the fact that storage will be depleted and we cannot find supplies. But of course, this is not to say it's going to be cheap to refill them," said Aurora Energy Research analyst Arturo Regalado. Germany's gas market trading hub is in talks with the economy ministry and regulator about the possibility of contractors receiving subsidies to refill gas storage sites. The EU's need to buy more gas will reverberate around the world, potentially pulling LNG cargoes away from Asia. "Globally, there is possibly still a shortage in terms of gas supplies," said Andreas Guth, head of industry association Eurogas, though he noted that shortages are not expected in Europe. While two new U.S. LNG export terminals are expected to start up this year, the market will remain tight until 2027.

Europe may need over 100 extra gas cargoes to refill shrinking stocks (Reuters) - Europe may have to buy at least 100 additional gas cargoes this summer, worth around $6 billion at today's prices, to replenish gas stocks after a plunge in storage levels this winter due to cold weather and a stoppage of Russian supply. EU gas storage sites have emptied faster this year than in recent winters and are currently 59% full, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) NGC’s HSSE strategy is reflective and supportive of the organisational vision to become a leader in the global energy business. That is much lower than this time last year, when storage was still 75% full, or the 79% filling level at the same time in 2023, after the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By the end of March, storage levels could drop to as low as 30-35% of capacity, said Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit. EU gas storage was 58% full at end-March last year. If storage drops to 35% full - around 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) - European buyers will need to find an extra 12 bcm of gas on the global market this summer, compared with 2024, Energy Aspects analyst Erisa Pasko said. That 12 bcm equates to around 120 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers worth $6 billion at today's prices, according to Reuters calculations. "Europe will need to maintain high prices to continue attracting spot and divertible LNG supply away from Asia," Pasko said. The storage concerns are helping to prop up already high European gas prices, which are trading at 14-month highs, also boosted by cold weather and the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine. Europe's higher demand for refilling storage is also reflected in high gas prices for the summer months, which are more expensive than contracts covering next winter. This is unusual and last occurred in late 2021 and 2022, when Russia's Gazprom stopped filling its European storages, according to LSEG data. Energy Aspects expects summer EU gas prices of 49.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), accounting for the loss of some Russian LNG due to U.S. sanctions. Front-month TTF gas prices were trading at around 49 euros/MWh on Wednesday, up from 27.70 euros/MWh a year ago - but still far below their peak above 300 euros/MWh during the 2022 energy crisis. Rabobank only sees summer prices at 34-37 euros/MWh, a 10% rise over 2024 levels but below where the market is currently trading.

European natural gas prices surge amid supply concerns- European natural gas prices have seen an increase of over 3%, with the Dutch TTF contract, a benchmark in the industry, trading at 50.30 euros per megawatt-hour. The rise in prices is primarily due to a disruption at the Freeport LNG facility in the U.S. and the announcement that Germany may provide subsidies for storage refills during the summer. This move by Germany aims to ensure the country meets its target storage levels. In the European Union, gas storage levels have dipped below 60%, which has led to an increased demand for LNG. The prices for gas in Europe during the summer period are higher than those projected for the upcoming winter. This price dynamic poses a threat to the refilling of storage sites and raises the risk of potential shortages across the continent.

EU Poised to Extend Gas Storage Targets Into 2026 --The European Union is considering extending the binding natural gas storage targets for EU member states for at least another year after the current goals expire at the end of 2025, EU diplomats told Reuters on Thursday.In the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the halt to Russian pipeline gas supply to most EU countries, the European Commission adopted a target for EU natural gas storage levels to be 90% full by November 1 of each year, ahead of the winter. There are also intermediate targets for February 1, May 1, July 1, and September 1, 2025, as the EU looks to be prepared for the winter gas demand with nearly full storage sites.Each EU member state must have their storage filled to at least 90% by November 1, to ensure security of supply through refilled storage facilities for winter 2025-2026.The EU says that “each year since the introduction of the Regulation during the energy crisis, the EU has exceeded its gas storage filling target.”Referring to reports about extending the EU gas storage target scheme after 2025, a European Commission spokesperson told Reuters, “We are looking into various options to ensure sufficient gas storage once the current regulation comes to an end.”But the spokesperson declined to elaborate if extending the storage targets for another year would be the case.Ahead of this winter, EU gas storage was around 95% by the deadline of 1 November. This amounts to about 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in storage in the EU, representing around one-third of the EU’s annual gas consumption.However, colder winter weather – unlike the previous two milder winters – and periods of low wind speeds in most of northwest Europe have been draining EU storage sites at their fastest pace in eight years.As of January 21, EU storage sites were 58.5% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. In 2025, EU gas storage levels have been trending below last year’s levels and below the five-year average.

Trump Promises There Will Be LNG for Europe -President Trump has promised European energy buyers there will be enough supplies of liquefied natural gas even if it means higher gas prices at home.Trump was responding to a question by TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne who asked what the U.S. president would do about U.S. exports of liquefied gas if their growth led to price inflation on the domestic natural gas market.“I would make sure that you get it,” Trump said, as quoted by Reuters, going on to say, “I think the more that you do, the lower the price is going to go, and what I'd like to see is rapid approvals,” of new LNG export capacity.The United States has become the largest LNG exporter in the world in a few short years and it also became the biggest supplier to the European after 2022 and the suspension of most Russian pipeline flows. Before 2022, U.S. LNG exports to the continent averaged 15 million tons per year, but they jumped to 55 million tons in both 2022 and 2023.Ahead of the November elections, Trump urged the European Union to buy more U.S. LNG to mend a trade surplus with the United States. Otherwise, Trump threatened, it would be tariff time for the EU. Trump repeated his call for more LNG imports earlier this week as well, again urging the European Union to step up its purchases of American liquefied gas.“The one thing they can do quickly is buy our oil and gas,” Trump told media on Monday. “We will straighten that out with tariffs, or they have to buy our oil and gas.” The EU is indeed buying more U.S. LNG - because its gas storage is depleting fast amid strong seasonal demand. Driven by this demand, LNG traders have taken todiverting LNG cargos from their original destinations in Asia to Europe.

Six US LNG Cargoes Diverted from Asia to Europe -- Traders diverted at least six cargoes of liquefied natural gas that were on course for Asia to Europe earlier this month, drawn by higher European prices and amid weak Asian demand, according to analysts and shipping data. The diverted cargoes could help meet additional European demand as countries seek to replace piped Russian gas after the Ukraine transit deal expired on Jan. 1, while weather forecasts point to lower temperatures in northwest Europe. The vessels had loaded in the U.S. and were initially destined for China, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. The vessels were then diverted in the Atlantic Ocean between Jan. 8 and Jan. 14, changing course for Europe. "The diversions are happening because Asian prices aren't keeping enough of a premium to European prices to attract cargoes," said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus, adding that nearly all Atlantic basin cargoes are heading towards Europe. Asian spot LNG LNG-AS has slipped for two consecutive weeks, as ample inventory levels in east Asia and spot prices trading at around $14 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), seen as too high for some buyers, curb demand. Prices have eased nearly 5% since the start of the year to $13.90/mmBtu on Friday. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub closed at 47.40 euros per megawatt hour on Friday, or $14.27 per mmBtu. The Bushu Maru and Flex Vigilant vessels, which both loaded at Freeport LNG, diverted to Europe on Jan. 8 and Jan. 13, respectively. The Flex Vigilant was initially headed to Thailand. Grace Dahlia, chartered by GlencoreL, loaded at Calcasieu Pass and was first China-bound but diverted for Turkey on Jan. 8. After loading at Cameron LNG, Mitsubishi8058.T-controlled Diamond Gas Crystal diverted its route on Jan. 13, changing its destination from South Korea to Europe. LSEG data shows it is heading to Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Meanwhile, tankers Maran Gas Sparta and Gaslog Georgetown diverted on Jan. 10 and Jan. 14, respectively, after loading at Sabine Pass. Glencore-controlled Maran Gas Sparta was heading to Singapore before pivoting to the Netherlands, while Gaslog Georgetown chartered by Cheniere Energy LNG.A was previously going to China.

Japan’s Top LNG Buyer Plans More Purchases From the U.S. - JERA, the largest LNG buyer in Japan, plans to boost purchases from the United States to diversify its supply portfolio, a top company executive told Reuters on Friday.Japan, the world’s second-largest LNG importer after China, is looking to increase its energy security with diverse sources of supply and could face steeper competition from fellow Asian importer South Korea, the world’s third-biggest, as well as from Europe.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened “tariffs all the way” if Europe doesn’t boost purchases of American oil and gas.South Korea, for its part, is looking to import more crude and LNG from the United States to diversify its energy supply and reduce its trade surplus with America, South Korean Energy and Trade Minister, Ahn Duk-geun, said last week.South Korea is considering more energy imports from the U.S. to potentially stave off tariffs that President Trump has promised to introduce on trade partners.In this global context, Japan’s JERA seeks to diversify its LNG supply to reduce exposure to exporters from the Asia Pacific region such as Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia.JERA currently buys almost half of all its LNG from these exporters.’

BP’s GTA Project Nears Startup as Liquefaction Vessel Receives Feed Gas — Golar LNG Ltd. said this week that its floating liquefaction vessel, Gimi, at BP plc’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) export project offshore western Africa, has received its first feed gas from wells at the site. Bar graph showing Vaca Muerta shale natural gas production by operator with historical volatility. BP said earlier this month that it started producing natural gas from wells at GTA offshore Mauritania and Senegal. Feed gas is now flowing from BP’s floating production storage and offloading vessel to the 2.3 million tons/year (Mt/y) Gimi, allowing full commissioning to start. The project’s first LNG export cargo is expected to be loaded by the end of March. Full commercial operations are on track to start by the end of the second quarter, Golar said.

ADNOC's $10B gas supply deal boosting UAE’s energy transition - The partnership, celebrated during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2025, was reinforced by a 10-year flexible GSPA worth $10 billion. Under the deal, natural gas will be delivered to plants across the country to support its transition to a lower-carbon water and electricity system. The duo says the agreement solidifies their shared commitment to drive sustainable economic growth in the UAE. Fatema Al Nuaimi, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of ADNOC Gas, said: “We greatly value our long-term partnership with EWEC, which is underpinned by a 10-year strategic agreement, supporting the rise of digitization, the increasing need for resilient connectivity and growing technology adoption across the UAE’s economy, while advancing the nation’s net-zero ambitions. “By collaborating across the industrial value chain to leverage Abu Dhabi’s vast gas reserves, we are working to ensure the UAE’s self-sufficiency while continuing to fuel over two thirds of the nation’s industries, driving sustainable economic growth and diversification.” As explained, EWEC is mandated to implement strategic initiatives that will achieve the 60% clean energy target outlined in the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy’s (DoE) Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035 for Electricity Production in Abu Dhabi. ADNOC Gas says it supports EWEC in its strategic plans to transform the UAE’s energy sector into a clean and renewable-focused industry, driving the nation’s economic growth and digital technology-led diversification. EWEC’s CEO, Othman Al Ali, noted: “This landmark agreement with ADNOC Gas ensures a stable and flexible supply of natural gas that is pivotal to enabling the UAE’s energy transition. This partnership strengthens EWEC’s ability to deliver a secure, efficient, and decarbonised water and electricity system while contributing to the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative. By collaborating with ADNOC Gas, we are reaffirming our shared commitment to powering the UAE’s economic growth, advancing sustainability, and ensuring long-term energy security for generations to come.” According to ADNOC Gas, gas-fired plants provide important transitional capacity. Being able to start and stop quickly and adapt output to real-time demand and supply changes, these facilities are said to offer flexibility during peak demand periods. Furthermore, they complement the large-scale integration of solar power. The UAE player is developing a 9.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) Ruwais LNG terminal in Al Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi. Once the project is operational in 2028, ADNOC Gas is set to acquire its parent company’s stake in the project, which is expected to more than double its gas output.

Oil pipeline operator to pay just NIS 1.5 million in compensation for country's worst spill | The Times of Israel -- The controversial Europe Asia Pipeline Company will pay just over NIS 1.5 million ($429,000) for causing the worst oil spill in Israel’s history, following an Ashkelon court’s approval of a plea deal. Shlomi Levy, who served as EAPC deputy director of operations at the time, will be fined NIS 35,000 ($9,620), according to the deal. Haim Bar Sela, who served as the field operations manager and was ultimately not convicted, will pay NIS 30,000 ($8,250) and perform 360 hours of community service. The environmental advocacy group Adam Teva V’Din slams the decision by Judge Zohar Dolev Lehmann as inappropriate given the “magnitude of the damage that has been caused and continues to be caused to the environment, nature and health, as described in detail in the verdict.” Two other defendants decided not to join the plea agreement and to be judged on their own defense. On December 3, 2014, some 5 million liters (1.32 million US gallons) of crude oil poured out of a pipe owned by the EAPC into the Evrona Nature Reserve in the Arava Desert. The spill took place near Be’er Ora, some 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) north of Eilat, during maintenance work prior to the construction of a new airport in Timna. Initial operations to pump oil and evacuate it from the reserve greatly reduced the environmental damage, but left about 145 dunams (36 acres) of land soaked in black oil, which has not recovered to this day. In 2018, the Environmental Protection Ministry assessed the damage in Evrona at NIS 281 million ($77 million at today’s rates). In 2019, it reached a deal in a civil class action suit it had joined whereby EAPC would pay NIS 100 million ($28 million) in compensation. The case brought to a conclusion today was a separate criminal case brought against the EAPC by the state. The Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company was initially established in 1968 as a joint Israeli-Iranian venture to carry Asian oil from Eilat to Europe via a network of pipelines that reach from Eilat to Ashkelon and up the length of Israel to Haifa.

US Sanctions Could Hit 1.5 Million Bpd Of Russian Oil Exports - One week into the latest – and most aggressive yet – U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, the Asian buyers of Russian crude are scrambling for alternative supply, the price of oil has rallied, and analyses suggest that more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Moscow’s export volumes could be severely constrained, at least in the short term. The outgoing U.S. Administration on January 10 imposed the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.Many of the vessels, specialized tankers, and shuttle tankers transporting Russia’s oil from the Arctic and Far East Pacific fields and production clusters to Asia have now been sanctioned. This puts around 1.5 million bpd of Russia’s crude flows from its Pacific and Arctic ports at risk, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the tankers now designated by the U.S. Most of the flows from the Sakhalin projects require special ice-class tankers—all of these have been sanctioned. The storage tankers and specialized vessels servicing shipments, storage, and loadings at Murmansk are also under sanctions now. The Gazprom Neft fields on the Yamal peninsula will also find it much harder to export crude—the company itself has been sanctioned, as have all its seven ice-class tankers handling shipments at and through the Arctic Gates terminal. In the Arctic and Russia’s Far East, the crude grades most severely hit by the sanctions are expected to be Sokol, Sakhalin, and ESPO, according to Bloomberg’s analysis.The least affected shipments are likely to be those of the Urals crude grade from the Baltic and Black Sea, which are mostly going to India. Only a quarter of Russia’s shipments of Urals since October were carried on now-sanctioned tankers. That’s the smallest share of designated tankers of any Russian crude grade, Bloomberg’s analysis showed.The sanctions are already roiling the market. India and China are racing to procure alternative supply while studying the wider implications of the U.S. sanctions on Russian oil deliveries six months from now.The sanctions caught a few million barrels of crude oil en route to India in a precarious situation. There is a wind-down period until February 27 for parties to complete dealings with now-sanctioned entities and vessels. Indian state-held refiners are targeting to settle the payments for Russian oil in half the time they have taken so far, as part of efforts to complete the deals before the seven-week wind-down period in the latest U.S. sanctions ends.India’s refiners have stopped doing business with the Russian tankers and companies sanctioned by the U.S., a source at the Indian government told Reuters on Monday.India doesn’t expect major disruptions during the wind-down period until March.But “Going forward, it's early days yet to anticipate the impact, how discounts shape up, if somebody is willing to sell below the $60 price cap,” a source with the Indian government told Reuters earlier this week.Indian officials and refiners held emergency meetings to discuss the implications of the sanctions on the exports of its single largest crude oil supplier. China’s independent refiners have also held emergency meetings to discuss the fallout and a workaround for the sanctions, sources tell Bloomberg.Fleet capacity to service Russian exports is expected to tighten significantly, according to Mary Melton, a freight analyst at Vortexa.So far, U.S. sanctions on individual vessels have been very effective in limiting further employment in Russian trade, Melton said this week.

India is staring at an oil shock as sanctions on Russian crude loom --India's days of buying cheap Russian oil could be over.Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against Russia's energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push up inflation in Asia's third-largest economy, analysts said.The country could be looking at a potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group."India will be more affected than China by sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than China," he told CNBC.Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183 vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted to offload crude oil until March 12. The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed. Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers, 75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India."Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there," BNP Paribas' senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following the sanctions.The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify, Spanier added.India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.Increasing demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels is set to spur this growth of 330,000 barrels per day this year — the most of any country, forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. India consumed 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, EIA's most recent data showed. This consumption is expected to have increased by 220,000 barrels per day last year.India wasn't always this dependent on Russian oil. As recently as 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of India's oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had spiked to 37.6%, Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler told CNBC.The catalyst for increased oil imports was the Ukraine war, which prompted some Western countries to impose sanctions against Russia and curtail their purchases of Russian crude. As prices of Russian oil fell, India was able to hoover up supplies cheaply from companies that were not under sanctions.The discount of Russia's crude, Urals, to the global benchmark Brent has averaged around $12 per barrel from last August to October, according to S&P Global's most recently published data last November. In 2024, Russia's Urals were also cheaper by $4 per barrel compared to oil from Iraq, one of India's main sources of crude oil imports, data from Kpler showed."If India were to fully comply with U.S. sanctions, we could see a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in February and potentially March," Xu added.Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy's senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email While the impact may eventually be mitigated as affected importers scramble to source alternative suppliers in the Middle East, some industry watchers say that the relief might still take a few weeks to months to materialize. Even then, the price of oil from these alternative sources will not be as cheap. The world's crude benchmark Brent recently advanced to a five-month high to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the sanctions, after a year of languishing from oversupply and weak demand. Prices of Middle Eastern crude, which are amongst India's alternatives, have also surged this week, data provided by Kpler suggested. "Depending on how quickly Russia resolves its logistical challenges and how cooperative India and China remain with the sanctions, oil prices could spike for a few weeks," Kpler's Xu said. Additionally, as Donald Trump's inauguration draws closer, the world's supply of cheap Iranian crude, is also facing the risk of tighter sanctions. Iran made up 4% of the world's oil production in 2023, according to an EIA report released last year. The Indian economy is "significantly vulnerable" to fluctuations in oil prices, a research paper published in 2023 established. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel surge "like rockets" in response to rising crude oil prices, Abdhut Deheri, assistant economics professor at the Vellore Institute of Technology and M. Ramachandran from Pondicherry University's department of economics said in the research paper. Analysis from the Reserve Bank of India in 2019 found that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation. "High oil prices, if passed to consumers, could further hurt their purchasing power at a time when income and GDP growth have slowed," Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ. However, weak consumer demand could deter producers from passing on the cost burden to consumers, which means it could dent companies' profits instead, Nim added. Although if the government chooses to shoulder the additional costs, it would strain its finances. Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker rupee, the impact on the India economy will be magnified, said Lipow. India's rupee recently plunged to a record low as a result ofpressure from a strong greenback and selling by foreign portfolio investors.

Russia Reshuffles Tankers to Keep Shipping Oil to China After US Sanctions - Aframax oil tankers that serviced crude oil exports from Russia’s western ports are now being redirected to the Russian Far East-China route to service the exports of Russia’s ESPO crude, a favorite with Chinese refiners, Bloombergreports, citing shipbroker and ship-tracking data. The Biden Administration’s final sanctions on Russian oil trade were the most aggressive yet and sanctioned dozens of vessels that Russia used to ship the ESPO crude blend from its Far East port of Kozmino to China’s independent refiners. Many of the vessels, specialized tankers, and shuttle tankers transporting Russia’s oil from the Arctic and Far East Pacific fields and production clusters to Asia have now been sanctioned. This put around 1.5 million bpd of Russia’s crude flows from its Pacific and Arctic ports at risk, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the tankers now designated by the U.S.Some 70% of the oil tankers that Russia used to ship crude from Kozmino have been slapped with sanctions, per Bloomberg’s estimates.This has likely prompted Moscow and the traders it works with to withdraw tankers servicing the western Russian ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk and redeploy them on the Far East-China routes.The freight rates for shipping ESPO crude on the Kozmino-East China route have tripled since the U.S. sanctions were announced on January 10.At least two oil tankers that previously transported Russian crude from the western ports are now on the Kozmino-China route, according to the vessel-tracking data Bloomberg has compiled. Both these tankers are owned by companies based in Hong Kong, but it is unknown whether the ultimate owners are Russian.Following the latest U.S. sanctions, supertanker rates doubled in a week and pushed up the cost of hiring Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, too.Fleet capacity to service Russian exports is expected to tighten significantly, according to Mary Melton, a freight analyst at Vortexa. The most likely scenario for Russian crude exports going forward is that they will most likely face serious logistical difficulty due to the lack of available tonnage, according to Vortexa.

Oil spill unchecked in Nigeria's delta region, say activists -Oil has spilled for weeks in Nigeria's delta region from a well damaged by thieves, and which has also sparked a fire that has yet to be contained, environmental activists said Tuesday. The Environmental Defenders Network said the spill at Buguma wellhead 008 began early in January and both were still under way as of Monday evening. "An oil spill is not supposed to last for that long," let alone "a fire outbreak that could destroy human, aquatic and wildlife in a very short period," said Chima Williams of the Environmental Defenders Network. "It is unfortunate that for the people of the localities involved, the year 2025 has started on a bad note with the disruption of the environment that sustains their livelihood," he added. Williams said authorities have yet to assist the community affected by the spill and fire and expressed concern that the damage could be more devastating if the government does not act quickly. The well is operated by a subsidiary of the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), which blamed the accident on oil thieves. It did not provide any information about the size of the area damaged by the oil leak and fire or when they would be contained. "Since March 2023, crude oil theft on this asset has been persistent, with criminals now resorting to extreme measures, including the use of dynamite to destroy installations and illegally access hydrocarbons," NNPCL spokesperson Olufemi Soneye said in a statement on Monday. Nigeria has recently seen an uptick in its oil output after years of decline due to widespread pipeline theft. Accidents are also frequent in the country, with more than 600 oil spills reported last year, according to the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA). It said the equivalent of around 96 oil tanker oil trucks were spilled. The agency only reports figures on the size of oil spills after they are contained.

Nigeria Records 589 Oil Spills in 2024; Theft Remains Major -- 2024, Nigeria documented at least 589 oil spills, according to data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency’s (NOSDRA) Oil Spill Monitor. These incidents were reported by oil exploration companies and residents in host communities. The figure represents a significant reduction of 49.3% compared to 2023, which recorded 1,162 spills. However, the volume of crude spilled remained consistent, with approximately 19,000 barrels (3 million litres or equivalent to 95 oil tanker trucks) lost in 2024, compared to 18,747 barrels in the previous year. Of the 589 spills recorded, one spill was classified as “major,” involving over 250 barrels spilled into inland waters or more than 2,500 barrels on land, swamp, or shoreline. In contrast, three major spills were recorded in 2023. Ten spills were categorised as “medium,” involving 25–250 barrels spilled into inland waters or 250–2,500 barrels on land. 285 spills were classified as “minor,” with less than 25 barrels spilled into inland waters or up to 250 barrels on land. This marked a decrease from 520 minor spills in 2023, with 229 of these being under 10 barrels in size. Notably, 281 spills remained uncategorised in 2024, a decrease from 608 in 2023. In 261 instances, no estimated oil quantity was provided by the responsible company, and Joint Investigation Teams did not visit 45 spill sites. The report identified the following companies as having the most spills: Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) with 185 spills; Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) with 169 spills; NNPC E&P Limited (NEPL) with 41 spills; Heirs Energies Limited with 40 spills; Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited had 27 spills; Heritage Oil had 25 spills; SEPLAT with 24 spills; OANDO with 21 spills; and Chevron with 12 spills The spills were attributed to two primary causes: sabotage and oil theft, accounting for 471 spills and operational challenges responsible for 100 spills. The first half of 2024 saw a high rate of sabotage and oil theft, with an average of 53.6 spills per month. This dropped to 24.8 spills monthly in the second half of the year, suggesting fewer incidents of theft and pipeline vandalism. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has intensified efforts to combat oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta. In collaboration with security agencies and private security firms, the company uncovered over 3,000 illegal refineries in 2024. NNPCL’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, described the achievement as remarkable and emphasized the company’s dedication to protecting oil production and energy security. He added that offenders are being apprehended and prosecuted, and the campaign against oil theft remains a top priority. Oil spills have devastated the Niger Delta for decades, leading to pollution of farmlands, rivers, and fishing streams. Host communities, whose livelihoods depend on these resources, often seek compensation through legal action against oil companies, who in turn attribute the spills to sabotage. The Nigerian government established the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project (HYPREP) in 2012 to address oil spill clean-ups, particularly in Ogoniland. However, progress has been slow, leaving affected communities in dire conditions.

Ocean Tankers confirms bunker spill at East Singapore anchorage A marine fuel spill from a 2012-built 6,989 dwt bunker tanker managed by Singapore-based shipmanager Ocean Tankers occurred at Singapore port on January 20. “Ocean Tankers as managers of the bunker vessel SJ Bravo confirm the vessel was involved in an incident in which a small quantity of bunker fuel was spilled during a bunkering operation at the Anchorage Eastern Bunkering Alpha in Singapore on January 20,” it responded in a media query from Manifold Times. “The SJ BRAVO was supplying bunkers (MFO 380 CST, total quantity 2800 MT) to vessel MT RIDGEBURY PURPOSE at the anchorage. “A clean up operation using anti pollution crafts was launched and successfully completed shortly after the incident and the Singapore Port Marine Safety Department and the MPA were informed. “There were no injuries to the crew who are all safe and there was no further sheen reported on the water surface. “Ocean Tankers has launched an investigation into this incident which is ongoing.” Ocean Tankers manages and operates a fleet of about 100 vessels ranging from 180 dwt coastal barges to 318,000 VLCCs, according to its official website. It is part of a group of companies which include Hin Leong, Universal Terminal, Tuas Terminal, and Ocean Bunkering Services.

Japan's average gas price exceeds ¥185 for first time in 17 months - The Japan Times - The average retail price of regular gasoline in Japan has exceeded ¥185 per liter for the first time in 17 months, reflecting reduced government subsidies to oil wholesalers, the industry ministry said Wednesday. The average gasoline price shot up ¥4.40 from a week before to ¥185.10 as of Monday. The average price last topped ¥185 on Sept. 4, 2023, when it hit a record high of ¥186.50. Average pump prices rose in all 47 prefectures of the country, six of which saw the prices hit ¥190 or more. Kochi Prefecture had the highest price, at ¥193.60, followed by Nagano Prefecture at ¥193.50. Iwate Prefecture had the lowest average price at ¥177.80. The government started to cut back on subsidies in December. If gasoline prices exceeded the base price of ¥168, the government initially subsidized 60% of the gap between the base price and pump prices of up to ¥185. Subsidies were then reduced to 30%. Starting Thursday, the government is no longer offering subsidies for gasoline prices of up to ¥185. It still, however, provides subsidies for any prices exceeding ¥185. Shortly after the subsidy cut in December, the nationwide average gasoline price surged from around ¥175 to around ¥180. The ministry had expected the price to rise further. The Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy Economics said it expects the average price to stay around ¥185.

Saudi Oil Giant Aramco Buys Its First U.S. WTI Midland Crude Cargo The world’s biggest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco, bought this week its first cargo of U.S. WTI Midland, the crude grade which is now part of the dated Brent benchmark, S&P Global Commodity Insights told Reuters.The Saudi oil giant, which is also the world’s biggest oil company, bought the cargo in the Platts window from commodity trader Gunvor. This was Saudi Aramco’s first purchase of WTI crude in the window, Joel Hanley, global director of crude and fuel oil markets at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Reuters.Aramco, which looks to expand its crude trading business, has already sold WTI. This occurred in February last year.“Aramco has clearly made a decision to get more involved in trading - we will see more and more of this,” Adi Imsirovic, director at consultant Surrey Clean Energy, told Reuters.WTI Midland has gained popularity among crude oil traders since it was included in the dated Brent benchmark a year and a half ago.WTI Midland, produced in Texas, was included in June 2023 in the Dated Brent part of the Brent benchmark as one of several grades underpinning the contract. Dated Brent, the world’s leading benchmark price assessment is being assessed by Platts. Apart from WTI Midland, Dated Brent includes Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll—all of these are crude grades produced in the North Sea.According to the Intercontinental Exchange, Brent is the price barometer for about 80% of global crude.Going forward, Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to grow by a steady 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2024, the oil giant’s chief executive Amin Nasser told Reuters earlier this week.“We still think the market is healthy ... last year we averaged around 104.6 million barrels (per day), this year, we're expecting an additional demand of about 1.3 million barrels ... so there is growth in the market,” Nasser told Reuters.

Oil prices slide as market awaits Trump’s return to White House - Oil prices slipped on Monday as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration is expected to bring a flurry of policy announcements that may clarify how he plans to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boost U.S. oil and gas production and lower costs for consumers. Brent crude futures declined by $1.23, or 1.5%, to $79.58 by 10:57 a.m. EST (15:57 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by $1.58, or 2%, to $76.30. The more active WTI crude March contract was down $1.35, or 1.7%, at $76.05. There will be no settlement for WTI contracts due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. Trump will sign an executive order declaring a national energy emergency aimed at increasing U.S. oil and gas production, lowering costs for U.S. consumers and boosting U.S. competitiveness, an incoming White House official said on Monday. Trump, who vowed during his election campaign to “drill, baby, drill,” will also sign an executive order focused on Alaska, the official said, adding that the state was critical to U.S. national security and could allow shipments of liquefied natural gas to other parts of the United States and to allied countries. The focus is what executive orders Trump will sign over the next 24 hours, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga said the price declines were because of uncertainty over the incoming president’s policies. Trump, who will be inaugurated on Monday, is expected to make policy announcements that include an end to a moratorium on LNG export licences as part of a wider strategy to strengthen the economy. The Brent and WTI benchmarks advanced more than 1% last week for a fourth-consecutive weekly gain after the Biden administration imposed sanctions on more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers. That led to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a rush for ship supply, as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought tankers not under sanctions for oil shipment. While the new sanctions could cut supply from Russia by nearly 1 million barrels per day, recent price gains could be short-lived depending on Trump’s actions, ANZ analysts said in a client note. Trump has promised to help to end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly, which could involve relaxing some curbs to enable an accord, they said. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on taking office hours before Trump’s inauguration in Washington and said he was open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration on Ukraine and nuclear arms. Easing tension in the Middle East also kept a lid on oil prices. Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday that marked the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of war. Yemen’s Houthis will target only Israel-linked vessels following the Gaza ceasefire, the Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said. Trump will also issue a broad trade memo on Monday that stops short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, but rather directs federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico, an incoming Trump administration official said.

Oil Analysts Divided on Trump's Impact on Oil Prices - Oil markets have kicked off the new week on the back foot, falling for the second consecutive day after President Trump was sworn in for a second term on Monday. Brent crude for March delivery was down 0.85% to trade at $79.49 per barrel at 11:40 am ET while WTI crude for February delivery declined 1.5% to $76.68 per barrel. According to PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga, the price declines can be chalked up to the huge uncertainty over the incoming president's new policies. "Given the performance of the market so far this year, it is reasonable to see some people take profit before the Trump administration's modus operandi becomes clearer." Varga told Reuters.Last month, a survey by law firm Haynes Boone LLC revealed that banks are gearing up for oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of President-elect Donald Trump’s new term. Trump says he’ll push shale producers to ramp up output.However, commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that the strength in oil markets witnessed at the start of the new year is likely to persist, powered by, among other things, the removal of more Russian barrels from the market following sanctions. According to StanChart, the new restrictions roughly triple the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Whereas it’s highly likely that Russia will try to circumvent the sanctions by employing even more shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, StanChart sees 500,000 bpd of displacements over the next six months.Other than the sanctions, StanChart says there are other reasons for the strength in prompt markets: OPEC+ has largely stuck to its target quotas; non-weather-related demand is more robust than consensus expected; and non-OPEC supply growth is coming in lower-than-expected. In short, StanChart says the market strength is likely to persist after weather patterns return to seasonal averages. Last month, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered argued that the latest decision by OPEC+ to delay the planned output increase by three months to April 2025, and extend the full unwind of production cuts by a year until the end of 2026 will ensure that oil markets are not oversupplied in 2025.

The Oil Market Traded Lower from Monday’s Martin Luther King, Jr. DayThe oil market traded lower on Tuesday in follow through selling seen during Monday’s shortened trading session due to the observation of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. The market remained pressured by expectations that the U.S. will increase its oil production under President Donald Trump’s presidency. In his first day in office, President Trump declared a national energy emergency and laid out a plan to accelerate oil and gas permitting to increase the country’s output. The crude market posted a high of $78.47 and retraced almost 38% of its move from a low of $66.71 to a high of $80.77 as it sold off to a low of $75.49 by mid-morning. The February WTI contract then settled in a sideways trading range ahead of its expiration at the close. The March contract sold off from a high of $77.86 to a low of $75.05 before it too traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The February WTI contract went off the board down $1.99 at $75.89 and the March WTI contract settled down $1.56 at $75.83. The March Brent contract settled down 86 cents at $79.29. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 6.29 cents at $2.5581 and the RB market settling down 2.79 cents at $2.0843. President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency aimed at increasing U.S. oil and gas production and lowering costs for U.S. consumers. The emergency declaration is one of many actions President Trump is expected to take to support the U.S. oil, gas and power industries and put a brake on former President Joe Biden’s efforts to accelerate the electric vehicle industry. President Trump also said the U.S. will “fill our strategic reserves up again, right to the top” and export energy all over the world. Trump is also expected to sign another order aimed at utilizing natural resources in Alaska. Saudi Aramco’s Chief Executive, Amin Nasser, said he sees the oil market as healthy and expects an additional oil demand of about 1.3 million bpd this year. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order repealing former President Joe Biden’s efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and along large areas off the U.S. coasts. Earlier this month, former President Biden banned new offshore oil and gas development along most U.S. coastlines ahead of Trump taking office. The White House announced President Trump also repealed a 2023 memo that barred oil drilling in some 16 million acres in the Arctic. The oil drilling ban was one of dozens of actions taken by Biden that were repealed by Trump in his first day in office. North Dakota’s Pipeline Authority said the state’s oil production was estimated to be down by between 130,000 bpd and 160,000 bpd due to extreme cold weather and related operational challenges. It also reported that associated wellhead natural gas production was estimated to be down by about 370 mcfd to 450 mcfd or about 11% of the state’s natural gas output. Justin Kringstad, Director of North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said temperatures in the region will warm up in the coming days and the majority of lost production is expected to be back online over the next four to seven days.

Oil Prices Drop as Trump's Energy Emergency Sparks Doubts Over SPR Refill Plans (Reuters) — Oil prices fell on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office, raising concerns of higher U.S. output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year. Brent crude futures settled down 86 cents, or 1.1%, at $79.29 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for February delivery fell by $1.99, or 2.6%, to $75.89 in its final trading session. More-actively traded March WTI contract fell 2% to settle at $75.83 a barrel. There was no settlement in the U.S. market on Monday due to a public holiday. "End of the day, there is no shortage of oil out there," U.S. oil production is at record levels and the OPEC+ producer group still has some 5.86 million barrels per day of output curtailed. "What there is a shortage of is demand," Yawger said. "If the refiner doesn't need to make more fuel, they're not going to buy the crude." The oil market is expected to be oversupplied this year, after weak economic activity and energy transition efforts weighed heavily on demand in top-consuming nations the United States and China. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reiterated on Tuesday its expectations for oil prices to decline both this year and next. "Strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices," EIA economists wrote. Trump also said he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from Feb. 1, rather than on his first day in office as previously promised. The delay helped ease concerns of an immediate tightening of the market among U.S. refiners, many of which are geared to process the type of crude oil supplied by these countries, Mizuho's Yawger said. Oil's losses were also limited after the U.S. president said his administration would "probably" stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China. Trump also promised to refill strategic reserves, although analysts questioned whether that would make any changes to oil demand. "(It) will likely not change anything ... Biden was already refilling U.S. SPR at its maximum rate of 3 (million barrels) per month," SEB Research analyst Bjarne Schieldrop wrote, referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation's crude stockpile, designed as a buffer against supply shocks. Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen's Houthis said on Monday they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.

Oil Prices Dip Below $80 As Trump Effect And Middle East Ceasefire Impact Market -The oil market witnessed its fourth consecutive day of losses, reflecting the potential impact of Trump's administration on US oil production. According to Reuters, brent crude futures for March delivery fell 1.17% to $79.29 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange in London. This marks the first time since January 10 that Brent crude has traded below $80 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for March delivery also experienced a significant decline. The WTI dropped 2.01% to $75.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. These price movements indicate a shift in market sentiment driven by recent political developments and geopolitical events. Donald Trump 's inauguration speech played a crucial role in shaping market expectations. The new president declared a national energy emergency, promising to fill strategic reserves and export American energy worldwide. This announcement signals a potential increase in US oil production, which could lead to an oversupply in the global market. Trump's energy policies stand in stark contrast to those of his predecessor, Joe Biden. The new administration aims to boost the oil, gas, and energy industries while slowing down efforts to promote electric vehicles. Energy Policy and Market Dynamics Trump's "drill, baby, drill" slogan encapsulates his approach to energy policy, emphasizing increased domestic production. The president also hinted at the possibility of imposing tariffs on Europe if the bloc does not increase its purchases of US oil. This move could reshape trade relationships and impact global oil demand patterns. Market analysts project a potential oversupply in 2023 if US production expands as expected. Adding to the downward pressure on oil prices , the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has eased tensions in the Middle East. The truce, which took effect on Sunday, has led to the release of three Israeli hostages by Hamas. Furthermore, the Houthi group announced a reduction in attacks on commercial vessels and ships linked to Israel. These geopolitical developments have contributed to a more stable outlook for oil supply routes in the region. As a result, the risk premium associated with potential supply disruptions has decreased, putting additional downward pressure on oil prices.

Oil eases to one-week low amid Trump tariff uncertainty (Reuters) - Oil prices eased to a fresh one-week low on Wednesday as the market considers how U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could affect global economic growth and demand for energy. Brent futures fell 29 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $79.00 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) traded 39 cents, or 0.5%, lower to settle at $75.44. That puts Brent down for a fifth day in a row for the first time since September and WTI down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since November. Both crude benchmarks closed at their lowest since Jan. 9 for a second day in a row. "Possible sanctions under the new Trump administration remain unclear, with possible tariffs related to Canada and Mexico now seemingly at the forefront of trader uncertainties," . Trump said his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%. He also vowed duties on European imports, without providing further detail and threatened new tariffs against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. "The oil market's attention is slowly turning away from U.S. sanctions against Russia towards President Trump's potential trade policy," said ING analysts, adding that the energy complex has come under pressure with the growing threat of tariffs. In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought to project unity at a meeting in Paris, as Europe struggles to respond with one voice to threats of tariffs from the United States. The U.S. president also said his administration would "probably" stop buying oil from Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries under U.S. sanctions. The U.S. imported about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Venezuela during the first 10 months of 2024, up from an average of 100,000 bpd in 2023, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Iran, another OPEC member under U.S. sanctions, delivered a conciliatory message to Western leaders in Davos on Wednesday, with a top official denying it wants nuclear weapons and offering talks about opportunities. In other OPEC news, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in November jumped to their highest in eight months. Analysts projected U.S. crude stockpiles fell about 1.6 million barrels last week, ahead of data due from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group later on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday. , Both weekly reports were delayed by a day due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday. If correct, that would be the first time energy firms pulled oil out of storage for nine weeks in a row since January 2018 when they withdrew oil for a record 10 consecutive weeks.

International Business: Oil market mayhem: prices plunge amid policy jitters and ballooning stockpiles - The global oil market is caught in a whirlwind of uncertainty, with prices sliding further in Asian trading on Thursday as investors scramble to decipher the potential fallout of evolving energy policies on global economic growth and energy demand. Brent crude futures dropped 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.74 per barrel at 0427 GMT, dragging the benchmark further into a bleak stretch of losses. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $75.21, continuing its relentless downward spiral. The carnage in the oil market is palpable. Brent crude suffered a fifth straight day of losses on Wednesday, settling at $79.00, while WTI clocked its fourth consecutive drop, closing at $75.44. Analysts warn that the losses are piling up, reflecting deepening apprehension over global energy consumption trends. Adding fuel to the fire, data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday revealed an alarming rise in U.S. oil inventories. Crude stocks surged by 958,000 barrels in the week ending January 17. But the shockwaves didn’t end there—gasoline inventories ballooned by a staggering 3.23 million barrels, and distillate stocks soared by 1.88 million barrels, signaling sluggish demand even as production hums along. These inventory surges are amplifying concerns that the market could face a supply glut unless energy policies shift or demand rebounds dramatically. "Uncertainty is paralyzing the market," said one industry insider. "Investors are grappling with how governments’ energy policies will influence both global growth and the future of demand, particularly with the backdrop of high inventories and an increasingly fragile economic outlook." Analysts are also keeping a close eye on geopolitical factors and central bank decisions, which could create ripples across the energy sector. With Brent prices hovering dangerously close to the psychological $78 mark, fears of prolonged instability are mounting. The question now is whether global producers will take corrective action to stabilize the market or if prices will spiral further, threatening the delicate balance of the global energy economy. As uncertainty reigns supreme, the only certainty is this: the oil market is in for a wild ride.

Oil prices fall as Trump urges lower oil costs, weighs tariff - Oil fell more than 1% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down its cost during his address at the World Economic Forum. Uncertainty over how proposed tariffs and energy policies would affect global economic growth and energy demand also weighed on prices. Brent crude futures were down 90 cents, or 1.14%, at $78.1 a barrel by 11:40 a.m. EST (1640 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.01, or 1.34%, to $74.43. Prices dipped after Trump announced he would be asking Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The broader economic implications of U.S. tariffs could further dampen global oil demand growth, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova. Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. On China, Trump said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty because fentanyl is being sent from there to the U.S. On Monday he declared a national energy emergency intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure. There will be “more potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration’s lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the U.S.”, On the U.S. oil inventory front, crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.23 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 1.88 million barrels, they said.

WTI Tumbles On Trump Comments, Shrugs Off 9th Straight Weekly Crude Draw -Oil prices are lower this morning (extending a multi-day slump) following comments from President Trump to Davos that he will push Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices. Prices had recovered some overnight weakness (due to across the board inventory builds reported by API) before Trump's comments.“I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said in remarks delivered virtually to world leaders gathered in Davos Thursday. “You’ve got to bring it down.”The remarks stifled a rebound earlier in the session that had been driven by signs that fresh US sanctions on Russian crude, introduced before Trump took office, were tightening the global market.API

• Crude +1mm
• Cushing +500k
• Gasoline +3.2mm
• Distillates +1.9mm

DOE

• Crude -1.02mm
• Cushing -148k
• Gasoline +2.33mm
• Distillates -3.07mm

While API reported across the board builds, the official data was almost the opposite with only gasoline stocks rising (though only modestly... even if it was the 10th weekly build in a row). Crude inventories are down for the 9th straight week Total US crude stocks dropped to their lowest since March 2022 and the seasonally lowest since 2015... US crude production remains near record highs... WTI was trading around $74.50 ahead of the inventory data and tricked up very slightly on the crude draw...

Oil at 2-week low as Trump's efforts to lower crude prices imply a boost in output -- Oil futures finished Thursday at their lowest in two weeks after President Donald Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, implying that he would pressure major oil producers to boost output. The president has also threatened import tariffs on China, raising worries about demand from the world's largest crude importer, and on Canada and Mexico, which may crimp crude supply for U.S. refiners.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery CL.1 CLH25 fell 82 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $74.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• -- March Brent crude BRN00 BRNH25, the global benchmark, lost 71 cents, or 0.9%, at $78.29 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe to post a sixth straight session decline. Front-month Brent and WTI settled at their lowest since Jan. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- February gasoline RBG25 tacked on 0.4% to $2.07 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG25 shed 0.5% to $2.47 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 settled at $3.95 per million British thermal units, down 0.4%.

Oil began to "peel off" after comments from Trump suggested that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may raise oil production. In a remote appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. In part due to the president's "America First global policy stance," "the world knows that he wouldn't hesitate to inflict economic pain on nations with policies in place that are not aligned with our domestic best interests. That includes major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, which has been the de facto leader of OPEC since its inception." : "The last thing Saudi Arabia wants right now, though, is lower oil prices amid their already subdued output, so they would not be likely to roll over and open the spigots without some sort of concessions - whether it be military [or] defense assets ... or some other promise of U.S. investment in Saudi Arabia." Oil prices were trading more than 3% lower this week, feeling pressure after Trump took office vowing to boost U.S. crude production - which already hit a record level last year - although questions remain around how producers will respond. "Plans to materially ramp up domestic oil and gas production are negative for prices from a supply standpoint,". On the other hand, "economic expectations for 2025 are solid thanks to the anticipation of Trump and the Republicans' pro-growth agenda, and that is a positive for consumer demand expectations." Crude prices had rallied into the new year, boosted in part by wider sanctions against Russia imposed by the outgoing Biden administration. "President Trump has made the return of energy dominance a key policy pillar of his new administration. There has been a flurry of executive orders seeking to open more spaces up for drilling and lessen the regulatory burden on U.S. energy companies. However, it remains hard to see how these measures will spark an immediate flood of output that could push prices significantly lower if he does indeed adopt more coercive measures against key foreign producers," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note. So far there's been no indication Trump is looking to reverse the additional sanctions imposed on Russia by Biden, and it still appears likely the new administration will increase pressure on Iran, Croft said. Trump, in a social-media post on Wednesday, said that unless Russia moves to make a deal to end its war with Ukraine, the U.S. would "have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries." Traders also looked to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that commercial crude inventories fell for a ninth week in a row, but gasoline stockpiles climbed as demand weakened. Domestic commercial crude supplies fell by 1 million barrels for the week that ended Jan. 17, according to the EIA report. The data were expected to show a fall of 2 million barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, ended lower after the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that U.S. natural-gas supplies in storage declined by 223 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Jan. 17. That was below the average analyst forecast for a drop of 251 bcf, according to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.

Oil Prices Dip as Traders Brace for U.S. Production Boom - Crude oil prices were trending lower today and set to book their first weekly loss this year on expectations that President Donald Trump will boost global supply and depress prices.The latest drop came after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he called on OPEC and Saudi Arabia specifically to lower oil prices.“If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue - you got to bring down the oil price,” Trump said during his speech. “They should have done it long ago. They're very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what's taking place,” Trump added.“More potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration's lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the U.S.,” OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said in comments on Trump’s speech, as quoted by Reuters.While it is quite uncertain whether OPEC will heed Trump’s call and start pumping more oil immediately, traders reacted quickly, reversing a bullish trend in the oil market that started at the end of last year. On Thursday, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate fell by more than 1%, with Brent crude trading at $78.23 per barrel at the time of writing and WTI at $74.55 per barrel.Besides the reaction to Trump’s calls to OPEC, traders appear to be quite certain that his energy policies will lead to significantly higher U.S. oil production, even as some analysts have expressed doubts this would be the case—along with the industry itself.Oil drillers have repeatedly signaled they have no immediate plans to boost output in any considerable way, sticking instead with fiscal discipline and shareholder returns as a top priority. Still, the market has reacted in a rather primal way to Trump’s entry into office, taking his plans for a done deal already.

Oil prices settle pennies higher, down for week as Trump touts energy policy -- (Reuters) - Oil prices settled slightly higher on Friday but posted a weekly decline, ending four straight weeks of gains, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping plans to boost domestic production while demanding that OPEC move to lower crude prices. Brent crude futures settled up 21 cents, or 0.27%, to $78.50 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up 4 cents, or 0.05%, to $74.66. Brent has lost 2.8% this week while WTI was down 4.1%. Trump on Friday reiterated his call for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine. "One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... that war will stop right away," The threat of harsh U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, which are key oil producers, could undermine Trump's goal of lowering energy costs. "Trump knows this and has leaned on OPEC to cover the void that these will create," On Thursday, Trump told the World Economic Forum he would demand that OPEC and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, bring down crude prices. OPEC+, which includes Russia, has yet to react, with delegates from the group pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April. "I don't really expect OPEC will change policy unless there is a change in fundamentals," UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "Markets will be relatively muted until we get more clarity on sanctions policy and tariffs." Chevron said on Friday it had started production at a $48 billion expansion of the giant Tengiz oilfield, which will bring its output to around 1% of global crude supply, and could further pressure OPEC's efforts in the last few years to limit production. Trump declared a national energy emergency on Monday, rolling back environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure as part of his plans to maximize domestic oil and gas production. These rollbacks could support oil demand but have the potential to exacerbate oversupply, Trump's policies so far have largely followed predictions on the supply side, including cutting red tape to promote domestic supply growth, according to StoneX's Hodes. However "the lower hanging fruit for growth has already been picked." The U.S. president vowed on Wednesday to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He also said his administration was considering a 10% punitive duty on China. As attention shifts to a possible February timeline for new tariffs, caution is likely to persist in the market, given potential negative implications for global growth and oil demand prospects, . Traders expect oil prices to range between $76.50 and $78 a barrel, he added. While bullish catalysts such as a significant drawdown in U.S. crude stocks are providing temporary positive swings, an over-supplied global market and projections of ailing Chinese demand continue to weigh on crude futures, U.S. crude inventories last week hit their lowest level since March 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Oil prices tally their first weekly loss in 5 weeks -- Oil futures tallied their first weekly loss in five weeks on Friday as recent comments from President Donald Trump suggested he would pressure major oil producers to boost crude output. Prices, however, ended slightly higher for the trading session, a day after settling at their lowest in two weeks, as traders continued to weigh uncertainty surrounding the president's energy policies.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery edged up by 4 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to settle at $74.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices based on the front month ended 3.5% lower for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $78.50 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 2.8% lower for the week.
• -- February gasoline RBG25 shed 0.8% to $2.05 a gallon, for a weekly loss of 3%, while February heating oil HOG25 gained 1.8% to $2.52 a gallon, ending down by 4% for the week.
• -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 added 2.1% to $4.03 per million British thermal units, for a 2% weekly rise.

"Trump continues to raise the prospect of trade wars which could cause crude prices to rally," said Alex Hodes, director of energy-market strategy at StoneX, in Friday's newsletter. However, the president is also now calling for members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Saudi Arabia, to bring back more production, he said. Trump's ties with Saudi Arabia will allow for the president to "have a hand in OPEC+ and encourage the group to crack into" its 5.5 million barrels per day of reserve production capacity to lower oil prices, said Hodes. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday said after a phone call with Trump that the kingdom wants to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years, according to the Associated Press, which cited a report from state-run Saudi Press Agency. "Time will tell" if the Saudis and OPEC and their allies will cooperate with Trump's request to lower the cost of oil, Hodes said. Oil weakened on Thursday after Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down oil prices during comments delivered remotely to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. See also: Trump may have given the Saudis and OPEC the excuse they needed to boost oil production But one analyst on Friday pointed out that Trump will need to choose between two conflicting goals he has for the energy market - he'll have to choose between a lower oil price or higher domestic crude volume - because "he can't have both," Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners, told MarketWatch Friday. Read: When it comes to oil, Trump 'can't have [his] cake and eat it too,' says analyst Oil prices posted a loss for the week after Trump signed executive orders this week intended to help boost U.S. production which is already running at record levels. Still, data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday suggested a slowdown in U.S. oil production ahead, with the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil falling by 6 in the latest week. So far, the Trump presidency has "played out largely as predicted on the supply side," said StoneX's Hodes. He's "cut red tape to promote domestic supply growth," proposed increases in sanctions, and called on OPEC to tap its spare capacity to step up production to fill the void, "in the hopes the Trump [administration] can fulfill campaign promises to lower energy costs."

Oil prices recover in December 2024; Aramco reduces prices for 2025 beginning: Aljazira Capital - The recent oil and petrochemicals monthly report by Aljazira Capital unveiled that methanol, propylene, and Urea prices rose in December 2024, while EDC, PVC, HDPE and PC declined. The listed Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) lowered propane and butane prices for January 2025: Naphtha prices decreased 0.8% month-on-month (MoM) to $645 per tonne in December 2024. Propane and butane prices remained flat at $635 per tonne and $630 per tonne, respectively. Aramco slashed the prices of propane and butane for January to $625 per tonne and $615 per tonne, respectively. Aljazira Capital stated that oil prices recovered in December last year amid Chinese stimulus, sanction expectations, and US inventory drawdowns. Momentum continued in January 2025 as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Russian supply. The prices were under pressure during the start of the month due to oversupply concerns and weaker demand outlook for fiscal year 2025. The research company added: “Later, the prices recovered on account of expectations of higher demand from China owing to fresh stimulus packages, anticipation of sanctions on Russia and Iran, also aided by drawdown in US inventories amid higher demand. In early January, oil continued to rally, as the US imposed fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil supply.” Brent increased by 1.7% MoM, while WTI rose 3.8% MoM in December, ending at $74.2/bbl and $70.6/bbl, respectively. Natural gas prices at Henry Hub grew 4.5% MoM to $3.5/mn Btu.

Trump to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC 'to end Russia-Ukraine war immediately' - english.pravda.ru - During his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a way to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to him, the key is to bring global oil prices down. The American president expressed his belief that a collapse in oil prices would bring the conflict to an immediate end.The Saudis and OPEC are responsible for fueling the war in Ukraine through higher oil prices. The war would end if they slashed crude prices, Donald Trump said.“I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said in an address to the World Economic Forum in Davos via video link. “If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately.”“They’re very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what’s taking place,” Trump said. “Millions of lives are being lost.”He added that he plans to appeal to Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices."Frankly, I'm surprised they didn't do this before the elections. That wasn't very considerate of them," the president remarked. "They should have done it a long time ago," he emphasized.Trump also noted that Saudi Arabia is currently investing approximately $600 billion in the U.S., but he plans to ask Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to round that figure up to a trillion.There has been no immediate response from Saudi Arabia or OPEC, but the market reacted swiftly to Trump's statements. By the end of his speech in Davos, the price of Brent crude oil had dropped. As of 7:45 PM Moscow time, the March futures for Brent were priced at $78.05 per barrel, while WTI fell to $74.59. By 8:15 PM, Brent prices had risen slightly to $78.41, with WTI climbing to $74.74.Trump reiterated that Russia must make a deal to end hostilities in Ukraine. According to him, the conflict can be resolved "the easy way or the hard way — and the easy way is always better.” He stressed the importance of Russia and Ukraine sitting down at the negotiation table to preserve the lives of their soldiers.

Undersea Cable Damage in Baltic Sea the Result of Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage - Recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was likely caused by maritime accidents, not by Russian sabotage as many Western officials have alleged, The Washington Post reported on Sunday.NATO has used recent incidents to justify an increase in its military presence in the Baltic Sea and launched a new mission called “Baltic Sentry” just last week, a move that ratchets up tensions with Russia. The Guardian reported on Sunday that a NATO naval flotilla has assembled off the coast of Estonia to “protect” undersea infrastructure.The Post report, which cited US and European intelligence officials, said that “investigations involving the United States and a half-dozen European security services have turned up no indication that commercial ships suspected of dragging anchors across seabed systems did so intentionally or at the direction of Moscow.”US officials said “clear explanations” in each case indicated the incidents were likely accidents, and no evidence suggested that Russia was involved. In some cases, ships dragging their anchors damaged cables underwater.The Eagle S, a tanker suspected of damaging a power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, was recently boarded by the Finnish Coast Guard, and its crew has been detained indefinitely while the ship is being investigated.Finnish officials have accused the Eagle S of being part of a “ghost fleet” that carries Russian oil and avoids Western sanctions. A lawyer representing the ship’s owner acknowledged that it was carrying Russian oil but said it was not a violation of international law and denied the tanker purposely damaged the undersea cable. Western officials have said the incidents in the Baltic were part of a broader Russian sabotage campaign in Europe, and some officials quoted in the Post report said they were not convinced the damage was caused by accident, but they have produced no evidence for their claims.

At Least 37 Fighters Killed in Turkish-Backed Push Against North Syria’s Tishreen Dam - The fighting in northern Syria continued on Monday, with another offensive by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) on the Tishreen Dam and the surrounding area. The Kurdish SDF, which controls the area, repelled the offensive. Despite losing the gateway town of Manbij in early Turkish-backed offensives, the SDF has successfully defended the Tishreen Dam area. Already over 440 fighters have been killed on both sides in just the month and a half since the fall of the al-Assad Syrian government.The SNA suffered heavy losses in today’s push, with the SDF reporting 29 SNA killed and 15 others wounded. Earlier in the day, eight SDF fighters were reported killed in what may be a preliminary count. Map: Military situation in Syria on January 20, 2025 (SouthFront.press)Tishreen Dam has been a primary goal of Turkey’s offensive in recent weeks. It is one of two major dams on the Syrian part of the Euphrates River. The two dams are the primary source of drinking water and electricity in SDF-controlled northeastern Syria, and it is believed Turkey intends to use those dams as leverage to force the Kurds to disarm. Since assuming power in Syria last month, the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) de facto government in Syria has supported the anti-Kurd offensives. Now it is reported that an HTS military convoy arrived on the front lines at the dam on Monday and is preparing to join the battle. In response, Kurdish civilians have been holding sit-in protests at the Tishreen Dam, calling for the international community to stop the attacks and warning the fall of the dam would be a humanitarian crisis. Turkey in turn has attacked these sit-ins, and killed Syrian Kurdish political leader Menije Hado on Sunday, and on Monday reportedly killed Kurdish artist and filmmaker Bafi Tyar. The flagrant attacks on civilian demonstrations has fueled public protests in the Syrian town of Amuda and in surrounding villages.

Turkish Airstrike Kills Syrian Kurdish Political Leader as Offensive Continues - Fighting between Turkish-backed SNA fighters and Kurdish SDF forces continues apace in northern Syria this weekend. Supported by Turkish warplanes, the SNA fighters have attacked multiple areas between Manbij and the Tishreen Dam.Kurdish officials said they believe Turkey is trying to change the situation on the ground before President Trump takes over this week. The SNA has taken much of Manbij, and has pushed heavily toward the Tishreen Dam. So far the SDF defenses have held and the Dam remains in Kurdish hands.In addition to air support for the SNA, Turkey has been conducting airstrikes on Kurdish targets across northern Syria. A Turkish airstrike today has reportedly killed Menije Hado, the co-chairperson of the Kurdish PYD, the leading political party among Syrian Kurds. She was among 6 civilians killed and over 20 wounded in the attack near the Tishreen Dam in Qamishli. Map: Military situation in Syria on January 19, 2025 (SouthFront.press) Hado and the others were participating in a sit-in near the Dam, a protest aimed at calling the international community to do more to prevent attacks on that area, a major source of fresh water and electricity for northeastern Syria. Since the regime change in Syria last month, there have been growing calls, led by Turkey, to eliminate the effective autonomy in the Kurdish region and disarm the SDF, which Turkey insists are “terrorists.” The SDF has called for calm and suggested maintaining a more decentralized armed forces. Syria’s new Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, said it “would not be right” for the Kurds to retain their own bloc in Syria’s defense forces, and accused the SDF of procrastinating with demands to dissolve and submit to the al-Qaeda-linked government’s rule. Turkish President Erdogan has been demanding that the new government end Kurdish autonomy and also end the SDF, warning that Turkey would soon invade if that didn’t happen. He has also demanded that the rest of the international community stop intervening within Syria.

Lebanon reports 4 more Israeli violations to ceasefire --. Lebanese media on Friday reported four more Israeli violations to the ceasefire agreement that took effect 52 days ago between Israel and Lebanon. According to the National News Agency, the Israeli army blew up several homes in Meiss El-Jabal town of Marjayoun district in southern Lebanon. The Israeli drones were detected flying at a low altitude over Beirut's southern suburb, the main stronghold of the Hezbollah group. The news agency also reported that a Syrian national was arrested by the Israeli army while grazing a herd of cattle on the outskirts of the Rmeish town. Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire deal on Nov. 27 to end over 14 months of fighting between the Israeli army and the Hezbollah group since the start of the Gaza war. Lebanese authorities have reported, however, more than 564 Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including the death of 37 people and injury of 45 others. Under the ceasefire terms, Israel is required to withdraw its forces south of the Blue Line – a de facto border – in phases, while the Lebanese army is to deploy in southern Lebanon within 60 days. Data from the Lebanese Health Ministry indicates that since Israel’s onslaught against Lebanon began on Oct. 8, 2023, at least 4,068 people have been killed, including women, children, and health workers, while 16,670 others have been injured.

Israeli Military Prepares for Escalation in the West Bank, Continued Fighting in Gaza and Lebanon - Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), said Monday that the Israeli military must prepare for a “significant” escalation in the West Bank and the continuation of operations in Gaza and Lebanon. “Alongside the enhanced defensive preparations in the Gaza Strip, we must be ready for significant operations in the West Bank in the coming days. This is to preempt and capture terrorists before they reach our citizens,” Halevi said, according to an IDF spokesman. The spokesman added that Halevi “ordered the formulation of plans for the continuation of the fighting – also in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.” The comments highlight the fragile nature of the ceasefire in Gaza, which began on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted he has a US guarantee that he can restart military operations after the first phase of the deal, although there are signs that the Trump administration wants to ensure a permanent truce is reached.The new Trump administration is expected to be more supportive of the Israeli government’s plans to expand settlements and move toward annexation in the occupied West Bank. Some analysts have suggested that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, could have offered support for an escalation in the West Bank in exchange for the Gaza ceasefire deal.In Lebanon, Israeli troops are still occupying dozens of towns and villages in the south, and the Israeli military has continued demolitions and airstrikes despite the ceasefire deal. Under the agreement, the IDF is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 26, but it has only left two villages and still has 60 to go.Hezbollah hasn’t responded to Israel’s constant ceasefire violations besides one incident when it fired two rockets at an open area. But Hezbollah is warning it will retaliate if the Israeli military remains past the January 26 deadline.

Israel Advances Into South Lebanon City, Continues to Destroy Homes - There are about five days left in the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and the Israeli withdrawal by that deadline shows no signs of happening. Indeed, new reports are that Israeli troops are continuing as they had throughout the ceasefire, raiding new areas and destroying civilian homes. Reports from al-Mayadeen are that Israeli troops have moved from the town of Maroun al-Ras into the suburbs of the city of Bint Jbeil. As they moved in, they began attacking houses in the residential areas of those suburbs. This is not the first time Israeli troops have raided Bint Jbeil, though it is noteworthy that this raid comes just days after they entered Maroun al-Ras, firing machine guns into the houses there.Besides the new raids, Israeli troops have also been reported to bedemolishing homes in the nearby town of Yaroun, as well as detonating houses in Kfar Kela. In the handful of parts of southern Lebanon Israeli troops have actually withdrawn from, there is widespread destruction, more than simply the damage done before the ceasefire was announced.That’s a function of many hundreds of Israeli ceasefire violations, but the biggest violation is yet to come. That’s because the ceasefire calls on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon within the 60-days, and despite US promises that would happen, there’s no sign it actually is.US enforcement of the ceasefire, and particularly Israel’s obligations under it, have been effectively non-existent. This is leading to calls from Lebanon’s new President Joseph Aoun for the international community to pressure Israel more to withdraw.It’s not clear that’s actually going to happen, and Aoun noted that Israel’sfailure to commit to the withdraw contradicts promises made to the Lebanese government. Though he didn’t make it clear he was referring to the US “guarantees,” that’s almost certainly at least one such promiseAs the violations continue, some Lebanese civilians are trying to return to their homes in the south, despite Israeli warnings not to do so. Those homes may or may not still be there at this point, and the humanitarian situation is still dire after 55 days of ceasefire, and many have little choice but to risk returning even during the Israeli occupation of those towns and villages.

Massive Israeli Destruction Continues in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Enters Final Week - It is now just one week from the end of the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Under the terms of that deal, Israel must fully withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by January 26.Israel has completely withdrawn from just two towns in the first 53 days of the ceasefire. With at least 60 towns and villages still to go, it is unlikely Tel Aviv will meet the deadline, despite US assurances that it “guarantees” Israel will do so.Most Lebanese seem resigned to this but are none too optimistic. The current focus is on the few areas Israel has already left, which are filled with hundreds of damaged or entirely destroyed buildings. Between this destruction and the extensive infrastructure and agricultural damage, Israel is only withdrawing when there’s little left standing.While Israel did substantial damage during the actual war and invasion, it continued to do so after the ceasefire started. Throughout the truce, hundreds of Israeli violations and active demolitions have been reported in southern Lebanon. Now it appears Israel may want to keep troops beyond the 60-day deadline to be able to demolish the numerous towns and villages it still occupies.An increasing number of nations are pushing for Israel to end its occupations of southern Lebanon and southern Syria both. UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres was in Beirut this weekend holding meetings, and called for the immediate Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.President Joseph Aoun, during his meeting Saturday with Gutteres, said there was an urgent need for Israel to withdraw. He emphasized that Lebanon’s military is ready to replace Israel, the other aspect of the ceasefire, but that this hinges on Israel actually leaving.A statement from Aoun’s office further emphasized the continued ceasefire violations, noting Israel is blowing up homes and destroying border villages. Despite this, the US overseer of the ceasefire, Major General Jasper Jeffers, has praised the situation, saying Israel’s pullout is on a “very positive path.” Jeffers made no mention of Israel’s continued destruction of civilian homes, nor indeed has any other US official.

After Days of Israeli Strikes on Lebanon That Violated Truce, Hezbollah Fires Back - Israel has launched dozens of strikes in Lebanon since a ceasefire was supposed to go into effect last week, and on Monday, Hezbollah fired back for the first time, launching two rockets toward Israeli-occupied territoryas a “warning” shot, causing no casualties. Now, Israeli officials are vowing a major response, signaling Israel will use Hezbollah’s response to repeated Israeli ceasefire violations as a reason to escalate.“Hezbollah’s firing at Mount Dov constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire, and Israel will respond forcefully,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement. “We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — a minor one will be treated like a major one.”Shortly after Netanyahu’s threat, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on areas of south Lebanon, killing at least five people.A source with the UN’s peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, told CNNthat Israel has violated the ceasefire agreement “approximately 100” times since it went into effect last Wednesday. The Lebanese government said Israel had violated it over 50 times.The Israeli violations have involved gunfire, artillery shelling, and airstrikes. According to Al Jazeera, Israel strikes since last Wednesday have killed 11 people. Hezbollah said that the rockets it fired on Monday were “defensive” warning shots in response to Israel killing and wounding civilians.Israeli officials have claimed that Hezbollah’s presence and activity in southern Lebanon is a ceasefire violation, but the agreement gives Hezbollah 60 days to move its fighters and heavy weapons north of the Litani River. During that time, Israel is also supposed to withdraw from towns in southern Lebanon.According to CNN, both the US and France have warned Israel that they believe the Israeli military has violated the ceasefire agreement. Axiosreported that the US has told Israel the ceasefire deal may unravel. The US shares some of the blame for the Israeli violations since it provided Israel with a letter to assure the Israeli military could launch unilateral strikes on Lebanon if it deemed the ceasefire was being violated. The assurances from the US, Israel’s biggest backer, were given separately from the actual agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon.

Israel Launches Major Offensive in West Bank Days After Gaza Ceasefire - The Israeli military launched a major offensive in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Tuesday focused on the northern city of Jenin, which came just days after the ceasefire in Gaza took effect.The Palestinian Ministry of Health said at least nine Palestinians had been killed and 40 had been wounded by the Israeli attack on Jenin. Several doctors and nurses were among the wounded, according to the director of the Jenin Governmental Hospital.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel had“begun an extensive and significant military operation to defeat terrorism in Jenin – ‘Iron Wall'”The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that Israeli warplanes and drones launched airstrikes on Jenin, and Israeli forces invaded the city with many armored vehicles. Israeli snipers were also deployed for the assault.The Quds Brigade, the armed wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), said its fighters based in Jenin were confronting the invading Israeli forcesand fired “heavy volleys of bullets.” So far, there’s been no word of Israeli casualties.PIJ said the purpose of the offensive was for Netanyahu to save his “faltering government coalition” as he faced resignations for the Gaza ceasefire deal. “We call on our people throughout the occupied West Bank to confront this criminal campaign by all means, thwart its goals, and consolidate the enemy’s defeat in subduing the will of our people in the West Bank and Gaza,” PIJ said. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who threatened his Religious Zionism party would quit the government if the genocidal war doesn’t resume in Gaza, said the West Bank offensive was part of a deal he made with Netanyahu. “This is part of the war goals that were added to the cabinet’s demand for Religious Zionism on Friday,” he wrote on X. Smotrich, a West Bank settler who has long called for the annexation of the territory, said the operation was launched to protect illegal settlements. “‘Iron Wall’ will be a strong and ongoing campaign against the elements of terrorism and its perpetrators, to protect the settlement and the settlers, and for the security of the entire State of Israel, of which the settlement is the security belt,” he said. The Trump administration is expected to be more supportive of the Israeli government’s plans to expand settlements in the West Bank, which was demonstrated by President Trump lifting sanctions the Biden administration placed on violent settlers. The offensive in the West Bank could have been part of the deal made between Netanyahu and Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to seal the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Palestinians Dig 68 More Bodies Out of Gaza Rubble, Raising Death Toll - On Tuesday, Palestinians in Gaza continued digging bodies out of the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israel as the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas entered its third day. Gaza’s Health Ministry said that hospitals received a total of 72 bodiesover the previous 24-hour period, including 68 that were dug out of the rubble and one person who died of previously sustained injuries. Al Jazeera reported that three Palestinians, including a small child, were killed by Israeli snipers on Monday despite the ceasefire. On Tuesday, the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that another Palestinian was killed by Israeli gunfire near the southern city of Rafah. The Health Ministry said that the bodies had brought its death toll since October 7, 2023, to 47,107 and the number of wounded to 111,147. The Health Ministry’s death toll is based on bodies that have been brought to hospitals, meaning the number will continue to rise as more are discovered. A study recently published by The Lancet found the Health Ministry’s death toll was a significant undercount, likely by 41%, and the true number of Palestinians killed by the Israeli military is likely over 70,000. The estimate only accounts for people killed by military action, not indirect deaths caused by the US-backed Israeli siege.

Jakarta Unaware of Reported Plan To Relocate Gaza Palestinians to Indonesia - On Monday, the Indonesian government said that it was unaware of any plan to temporarily relocate Palestinians living in Gaza to Indonesia afterNBC News reported the Trump administration was considering the idea.The NBC report cited a Trump official who said there were discussions about relocating Palestinians during the reconstruction of Gaza and said Indonesia was “among the locations under discussion for where some of them could go.”In response to the report, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry said it was the first time they heard about the idea. “The Indonesian government has never received any information regarding this,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Roy Soemirat.Palestinians in Gaza would likely be hesitant to leave since they would fear that Israel might not let them return. Many members of the Israeli government and the Knesset are openly in favor of expelling Palestinians from Gaza to pave the way for Jewish settlements.Former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who just quit the government over the ceasefire deal, said last month that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “open” to the idea of ethnic cleansing in Gaza. “I am working hard to promote the encouragement of migration from Gaza with the prime minister, and I am beginning to discover some openness on the matter,” Ben Gvir said.