natural gas price hit 2 year high; fuel supplies rose most in 51 weeks; distillates demand fell most in a year to 38 week low

natural gas price hits 2 year high; gasoline inventories rose by the most in 51 weeks to a twenty-four week high; distillate inventories rose most in 51 weeks as distillate demand fell by the most in a year to a 38 week low

US oil prices finished higher for the third time in four weeks following ​the enactment of a fiscal stimulus pr​ogram in China​, and on forecasts for higher heat oil demand in the US .. after rising 1.6% to $70.60 per barrel last week on a larger than expected withdrawal from US oil inventories and on concerns about another escalation in the Mideast, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery continued to increase on world markets on Monday, supported by optimism for Chinese economic growth after China’s government announced further stimulus measures last week, but reverted back to where it had started in New York in anticipation of the last economic reports for the year from China and the US, then rose again to settle 39 cents higher at $70.99 a barrel as traders bet that a drop in temperatures across the U.S. and Europe over the coming weeks would boost heat oil demand…oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday after data showed China's manufacturing activity expanded in December, then continued to rise in New York driven in part by expectations of tight supplies and a recovery of global oil demand in 2025, and settled 73 cents higher at $71.72 a barrel after the EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production rose to a new record of 13.46 million bpd during October, while demand surged to its highest level since the pandemic…. oil prices rose by more than 2% in Asia during the first trading day of the new year on Thursday, fueled by optimism over China's economy and fuel demand​ after a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth, then kicked off 2025 in New York by pushing to a three month high after the API reported a small draw from crude inventories, and settled $1.41 cents or 2% higher at $73.13 a barrel, as swelling gasoline and distillate inventories in the U.S. pressured prices and limited gains…oil prices were little changed near two month highs on global markets on Friday, underpinned by expectations of further economic stimulus in China and lower US interest rates​, then extended the week’s rally as shrinking US crude stockpiles and a risk-on tone in broader markets overshadowed signs of a misfiring Chinese economy, ​​ending up 83 cents or 1.13% to close at $73.96 a barrel, buoyed by expectations of further stimulus in China, and thus finished 4.9% higher for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices ended lower for a second week, despite hitting a two year high midweek, as traders turned bearish after Friday’s delayed natural gas storage report indicated an inventory withdrawal that was well below expectations…after falling 0.8% to $3.383 per mmBTU last week while traders pulled out of the expiring January contract amid uncertainty about the January forecast, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for February delivery opened 27.4 cents higher and surged in early Monday trading​, as the latest weather forecasts had frigid cold showing up across major population centers as early as the weekend, then charged upward through midday to an intraday high of $4.201 per mmBTU, propelled by robust LNG exports and a bone-chilling cold forecast for early to mid-January, and settled 55.3 cents higher at $3.936 per mmBTU, the biggest daily jump since 2012, as frigid weather forecasts for January sent traders scrambling to position for possible freeze-offs and the erasure of supply surpluses by month end….natural gas contract prices pared some of the previous session’s meteoric gains in early trading Tuesday, even as weather-driven bullish momentum remained in effect, then slid to settle 30.1 cents lower, or down 7.7%, at $3.633 per mmBTU, as traders took profits after prices had surged on Monday to their highest since January 2023….February’s natural gas price opened the new year 3.7 cents higher on Thursday, as winter temperatures forecasted to cover much of the country and strong LNG demand helped to keep the contract elevated, and settled 2.7 cents higher at $3.660 per mmBTU, as traders assessed the extent of which a massive cold front would cause furnaces to crank and inventories to dwindle…natural gas prices slid in morning trading Friday, after the reported storage withdrawal was on the lighter end of market expectations, then accelerated their losses in midday trading as traders appeared to have been pricing in a relatively large storage withdrawal, and settled 30.6 cents lower at $3.354 per mmBTU, as forecasts began calling for warmer weather….referencing the $3.514 per mmBTU closing price for the January contract ​t​he prior ​F​riday, natural gas price​ quotes​ thus ended this week 4.6% lower, while the price of February natural gas finished 0.9% lower…

with a new 2 year high for natural gas prices​ hit midweek, we’ll include a graph of current weekly natural gas prices over the past 2 years from Barchart.com​ to show you how that looks visually….each bar on th​e graph ​below represents one week’s price range for the actively traded front month natural gas contract during that week, with green bars representing weeks when prices rose, and red bars representing weeks when prices fell…the small “wicks” extending from the “candlestick” bars for most weeks represent trading prices outside of the opening and closing prices indicated by the solid bars…as you can barely see, the ‘wick’ for the the most recent week extends up to $4.201 per mmBTU, the highest point on the 2 year graph:

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending December 27th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 116 billion cubic feet to 3,413 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 67 billion cubic feet, or 1.9% below the 3,480 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on December 27th of last year, but 154 billion cubic feet, or 4.7% more than the five-year average of 3,259 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 27th of December over the most recent five years….the 116 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the median 127 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, but was much more than the 35 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in December of 2023, and also more than the average 104 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late December week over the past 5 years…

​The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 27 indicated that even after a sizable increase in our oil imports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the sixth consecutive week, and for 19th time in twenty-seven weeks, as domestic demand for oil that the EIA could not account for continued to be a factor...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 455,000 barrels per day to average 6,926,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 178,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 132,000 barrels per day to average 3,854,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 3,072,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending December 27th, 323,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 558,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 12,000 barrels per day lower at 13,573,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,203,000 barrels per day during the December 27th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,857,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 27th, an average of 41,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 131,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending December 27th averaged a rounded 476,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -476,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 131,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an rounded average of 168,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 37,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-fifth SPR increase in the past sixty-two weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,507,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1.3% less than the 6,595,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 12,000 barrels per day lower at 13,573,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 19,000 barrels per day lower at 13,135,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 7,000 barrels per day higher at 438,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.6% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,857,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 27th, up from their 92.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still fairly low for this time of year….the 16,857,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.1% more than the 16,679,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending December 29th of 2023, but 2.5% less than the 17,283,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending December 27th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.5%, then fairly normal for this time of year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week,​ the gasoline output from our refineries was quite a bit lower, decreasing by 959,000 barrels per day to 8,964,000 barrels per day during the week ending December 27th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 51,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 2.4% more than the 8,755,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending December 29th of last year, but 11.9% less than the gasoline production of 10,173,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending December 27th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 99,000 barrels per day to 5,371,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 178,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production increases, our distillates output was 2.7% more than the 5,231,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending December 29th of 2023, and 1.1% more than the 5,311,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending December 27th, 2019…

Even after this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the seventh consecutive week and by the most in 51 weeks, increasing by 7,717,000 barrels to a twenty-four week high of 231,384,000 barrels during the week ending December 27th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,630,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose by more this week despite lower production because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 840,000 barrels per day to 8,168,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 8,000 barrels per day to 665,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 75,000 barrels per day to 978,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.4% below last December 29th’s gasoline inventories of 236,954,000 barrels, and were still slightly below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the fifth time in fifteen weeks, and by the most in 51 weeks, increasing by 6,406,000 barrels to 122,867,000 barrels over the week ending December 27th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,694,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies rose this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 1,021,000 barrels per day​. the largest drop in a year, to a 38 week low of 3,232,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 19,000 barrels per day to 1,421,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 17,000 barrels per day to 197,000 barrels per day...After 28 inventory withdrawals over the past 50 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.4% below the 125,855,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on December 29th of 2023, and about 6% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after the big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,178,000 barrels over the week, from 416,779,000 barrels on December 20th to 415,601,000 barrels on December 27th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 4,237,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s modest decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still 26.9% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the last weekend of December over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this December 27th were 3.6% less than the 431,065,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on December 29th of 2023, and 1.2% less than the 420,646,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on December 30th of 2022, and 0.5% less than the 417,851,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on December 31st of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

​For a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 3rd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 27th) and this week’s (January 3rd) count, the third column shows last week’s December 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 5th of January, 2024…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Investment in Ohio's shale energy sector rises to $3.1 billion - - Total investment in Ohio’s shale-energy sector was approximately $3.1 billion in the second half of 2023, according to a study by the Energy Policy Center at Cleveland State University’s Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs. The report, the 16th of a series prepared for the state’s private non-profit economic development corporation, JobsOhio, covered shale-related investment from July 2023 through December 2023 and showed that cumulative shale-related investment has risen steadily during the 12-year period ending last year. “Since 2011, the shale-related investment in Ohio’s energy economy has steadily increased to $108.2 billion,” JobsOhio President and CEO J.P. Nauseef said in a news release. The study calculated cumulative oil and gas investment in Ohio through December 2023 at about $108.2 billion, with $76.7 billion in investment linked to activities such as exploration and production; $22 billion linked to storage, processing and transportation; and $9.5 billion related to refining, distribution and end use. The three areas of investment in the oil and gas industry are identified as upstream, midstream and downstream investment. Upstream is the early stages of the oil producing process, which includes exploration and production of oil. Midstream is the transportation and storage of oil while downstream is the conversion of crude oil and natural gas to finished products. According to the study, upstream investments were down by about $332 million during the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year, which reflected a decline in the number of new wells drilled. Midstream investment rose by 69 percent over the previous six-month period, reaching $290.4 million. The figure was further broken down, with the study identifying $166.9 million spent on gathering lines, $91.9 million spent on compression and $31.5 million spent on natural gas liquids pipelines. The study noted that seven natural gas-powered plants consumed 13 percent of Ohio Utica gas production for power generation during the second half of 2023, generating the equivalent of approximately 35 percent of the electricity consumed in the state across all sectors. “Total shale-related investment was up $1 billion in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year, due largely to construction starting on a major natural gas power plant,” the policy center’s Research Supervisor Mark Henning said. “This level of overall investment will likely continue as upstream producers continue to ramp up activities in the region’s oil window, where we have seen new well development more than double during the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of last year.” The report listed an average oil-to-price ratio of 6:1 since the beginning of 2023. Officials said that as the spread between oil and natural gas prices has increased, discovery and development costs for oil have fallen due to innovations improving operational efficiency of shale-well production. The study suggested that the application of artificial intelligence to upstream operations could drive additional improvements. “As natural gas exploration technology continues to evolve, Ohio’s abundance of resources can play an essential role in supporting economic growth in industries like advanced manufacturing, health care, polymers, construction, aviation and automotive,” Nauseef said.

Condensate Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio's Utica Shale - RBN Energy -- The Marcellus/Utica is a natural-gas-and-NGLs play, right? Almost entirely, yes. But a handful of dogged, innovative E&Ps have been producing fast-rising volumes of superlight crude — better described as condensate — in the Utica Shale’s “volatile oil window” in eastern Ohio. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recently ramped-up drilling-andcompletion activity in that swath of the Buckeye State, the potential for more growth through the second half of the 2020s, and the impact of increasing output on Midwest midstreamers and refiners. ( https://rbnenergy.com/products/gusher?utm_source=Inline-Ad&utm_medium=Web&utm_campaign=CrudeGusher ) Few would have guessed it a quarter-century ago, but the Marcellus/Utica region in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia is now one of the world’s most prolific and vital natural gas production areas, with output currently topping 32 Bcf/d and decades of reserves yet to be tapped. The overlapping shale plays generate hundreds of thousands of barrels of NGLs per day that are consumed in the Northeast and Midwest, piped or railed away to other U.S. and Canadian markets — or piped to the Marcus Hook export terminal near Philadelphia and shipped overseas. What’s less well-known is that parts of the Utica play — mostly in a few counties in eastern Ohio — also produce relatively modest amounts of crude oil, almost all of it condensate with an API value (or viscosity) of 55 to 59 degrees. More recently, at least a couple of E&Ps in the Utica have been producing small volumes of “heavy condensate” with an API value of 49 to 52-degrees — still far lighter than West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which has an API of about 40 degrees. (Despite the wide variation in the viscosity of condensate being produced in the Utica today, all condensate barrels in the play are currently fungible — though that may change, as we’ll discuss later.) In the Pre-Shale 2000s, crude oil/condensate production in the three Marcellus/Utica states — the last gasp of output from conventional oil and gas wells drilled years earlier — was flat-lining at de minimis levels. But a sharp rise in drilling-and-completion activity pushed Ohio production alone to a peak of 80 Mb/d in the fall of 2015 and a pre-COVID peak of 87 Mb/d in the summer of 2019 (from only 14 Mb/d in 2012; see Figure 1 below). And, as we’ll get to later, production has been on a tear since the winter of 2021-22, more than doubling from a postpandemic low of 48 Mb/d to 108 Mb/d in September, the latest EIA data available.

New Request to Frack Under Another 4,743 Acres of OH Wildlife Areas - Marcellus Drilling News - An undisclosed shale driller has asked the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) to consider opening up an additional 4,360 acres of state-owned Egypt Valley Wildlife Area for shale drilling under the land. A new “nomination” for drilling was also sent to the OGLMC for 383 acres of Jockey Hollow Wildlife Area, located near Egypt Valley. Both tracts nominated for consideration are in Belmont County, OH.

ODNR Seeks $6M from Austin Master Services to Cover Cleanup Costs -- Marcellus Drilling News - One of the significant stories of 2024 in the Ohio Utica was about Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, that handles fracking waste (trucks it for disposal). AMS ran into trouble when it ran out of money. The Martins Ferry facility where waste is temporarily stored went from a permitted maximum of 600 tons of stored waste to over 10,000 tons, in violation of its permit. The Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against the company in March to force compliance. Local newspaper The Times Leader, in doing a Top 10 stories of the year, provides an update on AMS and where things stand with the cleanup.

State steps in as Austin Master found in violation of permit -- AFTER YEARS of warnings from the Concerned Ohio River Residents, it was revealed in March that Austin Master Services LLC allegedly had violated its permit and was storing hundreds of tons of dangerous waste within its Martins Ferry facility. And mere weeks after Ohio Attorney Dave Yost took legal action to halt the frack waste processing plant’s operations and force a cleanup, flooding of the nearby Ohio River threatened to breach the facility and release hazardous and radioactive contamination.A lawsuit filed in March in Belmont County Common Pleas Court alleged that more than 10,000 tons of solid and liquid waste — some of which is radioactive — had accumulated at the former steel mill at 4K Industrial Park along First Street near the city’s water well field despite the fact that Austin Master was only permitted to house 600 tons of the material there.Belmont County Common Pleas Judge John Vavra subsequently ordered Austin Master to cease operations at the location and to reduce the amount of waste on site to a permitted level. ODNR has since stepped in and launched a cleanup effort.Now, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources is working to preserve evidence and ensure the state will be reimbursed as the cleanup proceeds.“The cleanup is ongoing and is on schedule,” ODNR said via email Monday in response to a request for a status update.Bridgeport resident Beverly Reed, a member of the CORR organization, recently approached Martins Ferry City Council to inquire about progress at the site. While Mayor John Davies told Reed that he has seen progress at the plant and that work continues on a daily basis, Reed warned that court filings show the state is seeking to ensure that AMS and its ownership are not able to conceal or destroy evidence in the case and that the business pays for the cleanup, which will cost more than $6 million according to the terms of a contract secured by ODNR.Court documents indicate that the state requested a restraining order to ensure Brad Domitrovitsch, CEO of Austin Master’s parent company American Environmental Partners Inc., cannot destroy or dispose of 61 boxes of business records related to AMS that had been in the possession of a former company employee.In a filing seeking to have Domitrovitsch turn those records over, Yost states that ODNR’s Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management was contacted by that employee, Wayne Minnicks, saying that Domitrovitsch had retrieved 61 boxes of records from him. The filing states that Minnicks also told state officials that when he had asked Domitrovitsch what to do with the records, Domitrovitsch told him to destroy them.The state also filed for a restraining order to halt Domitrovitsch from selling off assets of the company, such as a skidsteer, an office trailer and other large equipment, since he has disavowed control over AMS operations.In court filings, ODNR and Yost point out that Austin Master took in substantial revenue for accepting the excess waste that had been stored at the plant, yet Domitrovitsch claims he is unable to fund the cleanup of the site.At the facility, meanwhile, the first phase of cleanup is complete. According to ODNR Media and Outreach Specialist Karina Cheung, that work was done by a contractor under an existing state contract for environmental remediation. She said the bid for the cleanup’s second phase was awarded to Select Water Solutions LLC with a contract bid of $6.1 million. The Ohio Controlling Board approved the release of oil and gas funds to cover that expense in September.“ODNR fully intends to seek reimbursement from Austin Master Services, its parent company, and CEO Brad Domitrovitsch,” Cheung wrote in an email.The first phase of the work was finished on Aug. 9, according to Cheung. That contractor removed 3,000 tons of waste from the facility.“The second phase of the cleanup is still underway and is expected to be fully remediated by May 23, 2025, per the contract,” Cheung added.The goal is to return the facility to a condition that will allow it to be used for further development. 4K Industrial has filed a lawsuit against Austin Master claiming breach of contract due to unpaid rent and 4K’s loss of use of the facility, as it cannot be rented to another business until the waste inside is remediated. That is a complicated process, according to ODNR.“The remediation requires thorough cleaning, which will involve multiple rounds of power washing throughout the entire site,” Cheung noted. “The comprehensive and time-consuming cleaning will bring the Austin Master Services site into the same condition it was in before it ever was the site of an oil and gas waste facility. Appropriate industry tests and sampling will take place inside and outside the facility building.”

PTT Investing $21.25B in 2025 to 2029, But Not in Ohio Cracker -- This is your friendly (somewhat snarky) semi-regular reminder from MDN that the PTT ethane cracker project in Ohio is dead (see Facing Reality – PTT Ohio Cracker Plant Project is Dead). We periodically look for signs of life in the project, and it has been a flat line for YEARS. Nothing. Local and state leaders in Ohio used to pop their heads up to tell us to have hope, that it will still happen. Not anymore. While PTT still chips in donations to the town now and again, no one seriously thinks there will be a cracker plant on the site in Dilles Bottom (Belmont County), Ohio. We have more evidence to support our view…

27 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 16 – 22 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Dec 16 – 22, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica remained healthy. There were 27 new permits issued last week, up from 22 issued the week before. In something of an unusual twist, the Keystone State (PA) issued just four new permits, all of them to different drillers. PennEnergy Resources’ permit was in Beaver County; Seneca Resources’ permit was in Tioga County; and Range Resources and EQT (Rice) each had one permit in Washington County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARSENAL RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | DIVERSIFIED ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | RITCHIE COUNTY | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Anti-Shale Group Continues to Try and Block Apex Wells in SWPA - Marcellus Drilling News - A leftist anti-fossil group calling itself Protect PT (Penn-Trafford), located in Westmoreland County, PA, backed with big money from Big Green groups, has for years challenged Penn Township ordinances that allow Apex Energy and Huntley & Huntley (now Olympus Energy) to drill and operate shale wells. Protect PT finally struck out (legally) at the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in May 2020 (see Penn Twp Frack Ban Case Strikes Out at PA Supreme Court). However, Protect PT soldiered on (with Big Green $$), even after its crushing Supreme Court defeat. Apex Energy proposed drilling two wells (the Drakulic Well project) on a pad in a rural part of Trafford, PA, a boro straddling Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. Protect PT challenged the original permits and a time extension of the permits (see PA EHB Allows “Narrow” Appeal of 2 Apex Energy Well Permits). We are nearly a year later, and the case still plays out. A hearing is set for Jan. 15 to examine whether the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) lawfully issued drilling permits to Apex Energy.

Hochul's fracking foolishness locks $1T of energy underground -- Hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking, has transformed the United States into the Saudi Arabia of natural gas — but not in New York, where foolish politicians like Gov. Hochul stubbornly refuse to tap the enormous wealth beneath our feet.Two giant shale formations sit beneath much of northeastern North America.The relatively shallow Marcellus Shale extends from West Virginia into New York’s Southern Tier region.The Utica Shale, which lies below the Marcellus and may hold even more natural gas, extends further northwest into Canada and further east toward Albany — a vast swath of the Empire State.Together, these two formations are estimated to hold at least 500 to 1,000 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, distributed throughout their extent. While it’s difficult to determine exactly how much of the gas lies within New York’s borders, one study from the New York Energy Research and Development Authority estimated it at between 160 and 300 Tcf — enough to supply the state’s total natural gas needs for up to 300 years, at current consumption rates.At today’s market value, New York’s reserves could be worth up to $1 trillion. Rather than exploit the economic benefits this offers, however, New York has allowed environmental hysteria to crush its nascent fracking industry, beginning with a moratorium imposed by Gov. David Patterson in 2008. Legislation banning fracking entirely was signed in 2014 by Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who also effectively banned new natural gas pipelines that would have transported Pennsylvania’s low-cost natural gas to New York. Last month, Hochul piled on, signing legislation banning the use of carbon dioxide for fracking instead of water. “We’re not fracking . . . we’re not going backwards,” she said in September. Environmental zealots have cited multiple reasons to oppose it, from cancer fears to water-contamination worries to tales of flaming faucets that have been definitively debunked. They have successfully smothered the industry in New York state — even in the face of the enormous benefits reaped by neighboring Pennsylvania. Fracking has provided the Keystone State with billions of dollars in economic benefits. Impact fees collected from drillers have generated over $2.7 billion for rural Pennsylvania communities since 2012 — money that these previously ailing towns and counties have invested in new schools, housing and economic development. Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry supports hundreds of thousands of jobs: more than 100,000 direct jobs with drilling companies, according to a 2023 study, and several hundred thousand more in indirect ones — that is, jobs supported by fracking-company outlays on goods and services and workers’ wages. And fracking jobs pay well. A study by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated average wages in 2017 of almost $150,000 in today’s dollars. By greatly increasing natural gas production, fracking in Pennsylvania has lowered energy prices for state residents — for natural gas used for heating as well as for electricity, much of it generated using natural gas.

U.S. Winter Storms Threaten Power Outages, Natural Gas Supply Disruptions | Pipeline and Gas Journal - (Reuters) — Freezing weather and snow storms across the U.S. could cause massive power outages over the next week and boost natural gas demand to its highest levels of the winter, according to energy analysts and reliability coordinators. The bump in demand comes as supplies of gas could drop due to the freezing of oil and gas wells and pipes, known in the energy industry as so-called "freeze-offs." Gas provides about 43% of the nation's power generation and heats about 45% of the country's homes, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The jump in demand coupled with a drop in supply could drive up prices next week. "Appalachia and Rockies production face freeze-off risks as temperatures drop into the single digits or below," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note. The U.S. produces about 105 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas with about a third of that supply coming from the Appalachia region of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, according to data from financial firm LSEG and the EIA. In past winters, freeze-offs have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 16.5 Bcf/d in January 2024, according to data from LSEG. Frigid temperatures in December 2022 cut supplies by 19.4 Bcf/d, and in February 2021 hit output by 20.4 Bcf/d, according to LSEG data. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million homes for a day. As heating demand picks up, LSEG projects total U.S. gas use, including exports, could reach 156.4 Bcf/d on Jan. 9. That compares with the nation's daily record of 168.4 Bcf/d hit on Jan. 16, 2024 during another brutal winter freeze. The combination of soaring demand and freeze-offs in January 2024 boosted spot gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana to over $13 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were currently around $3.65 per MMBtu, the highest levels since January 2024.

Williams Says Latest Transco Expansion In Service, Touts Record December Natural Gas Volumes - Williams said it has placed into full service the 423,400 Dth/d Southside Reliability Enhancement natural gas pipeline project serving North Carolina and Virginia. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Transco Zone 5 daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. The project, an expansion of Williams’ flagship Transcontinental Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco) system, is fully contracted and able to meet the energy needs of more than two million homes in the region, according to the Tulsa, OK-based midstreamer. The company noted that Transco is “experiencing record and near-record loads already this month” amid strong heating demand.

U.S. LNG Export Growth Muted in 2024 as Supply Balance, Development Delays Collide - Domestic natural gas exports grew by a little more than 1 million ton (Mt) year/year in 2024, the smallest rise in U.S. LNG volumes since international sales began, according to Kpler data. Bar chart showing annual U.S. LNG exports. LNG exporters in the United States shipped a record 87.33 Mt in 2024, marking a slight increase from 86.31 Mt in 2023, the data indicated. Annual LNG exports from the United States have historically grown at a considerable rate since Cheniere Energy Inc. shipped the first commercial cargo from the Gulf Coast in 2016. However, in 2024, a lack of additional export capacity coming online in the United States and rebalancing in gas markets across the world partially capped growth.

Corpus Christi Stage 3 Adding Natural Gas Demand to Gulf Coast as LNG Production Commences - Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project has achieved first LNG production, ushering in another source of natural gas demand on the Gulf Coast as multiple projects ramp up. Houston-based Cheniere confirmed Monday the first of seven mid-scale trains planned as a part of the Stage 3 project had begun producing liquefied natural gas. Bechtel Energy Inc., Cheniere’s engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the project, is expected to continue commissioning work on the train until the end of March. If crews meet Cheniere’s first quarter of 2025 timeline, substantial work on Train 1 could be finished six months ahead of the company’s previous schedule.

Natural gas surges 20% on expectations for colder-than-usual January on the East Coast - Natural gas futures prices surged Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January. Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.The West, however, is expected to see temperatures come in milder than average, according to the report. Notably, the "Four Corners" region – the area of the United States that consists of the southwestern corner of Colorado, southeastern corner of Utah, northeastern corner of Arizona and northwestern corner of New Mexico – is expected to be the most above average.The report also said that colder temperatures in the East could hit a peak by mid-month, likely being "much farther below average" when compared with the entire month's forecast for the eastern U.S. That said, it's still unclear how temperatures will take hold in January's second half.In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could set up a "stormy pattern," with areas seeing "substantial snow and ice" for a significant portion of the month's first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week.John Kilduff of Again Capital said Monday on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" that natural gas "freeze offs" could take place, meaning disruptions in natural gas production flows."We are talking [about] bone-chilling polar vortex weather, which has caused this spike in natural gas this morning," Earlier in the session, February futures prices advanced as much as 20% and hit a high of $4.201 per thousand cubic feet. That marks its highest level since Jan. 4, 2023, when prices traded as high as $4.219 per thousand cubic feet.The February futures move comes as natural gas – which is used for home heating – has seen major gains as of late. Prices of the commodity have jumped nearly 9% in the past week and about 58% this year.Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rose 30 cents to $74.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 79 cents to $71.16 a barrel.

US Natural Gas futures surge 16%, most since 2012, after Arctic blast warning - US natural gas futures soared as the weather outlook for January shifted colder, raising demand prospects for the fuel used in heating and power generation.Gas for February delivery rose 16% in New York and settled at $3.936 per million British thermal units on Monday, the biggest daily jump since the contract started trading in 2012. At one point during the trading session, the most-active contract climbed to a two-year high, on an intraday basis. The National Weather Service expects a higher chance of colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its latest 8-14 day outlook. That would be an abrupt shift from what’s until now been a mostly mild autumn and early winter in the US. Forecasts for early next month turned markedly colder across a swath of the country from Texas to Michigan to Georgia. That shift is driving bullish sentiment for energy demand that already was expected to see a winter-driven spike, according to NatGasWeather.com. The frigid outlook is “creating a buying frenzy,” Dennis Kissler, an energy trader and analyst at BOK Financial, wrote in a note Monday. Front-month gas futures largely stayed below $3 for much of the year amid ample domestic production from shale fields. However, the imminent cold snap threatens to freeze some wellheads, which could stifle some gas output, especially in parts of the Marcellus Shale of Appalachia, according to analytical-trading firm Analytix.AI. Funds relying on algorithmic trading strategies have also changed risk positions from flat to net long, according to Stephen Roseme, managing member of Bridgeton Research Group LLC. Additional consumption for supplying liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf Coast is expected to add to overall demand in the coming period, including an expansion at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi LNG plant and Venture Global LNG Inc.’s second plant Plaquemines LNG. Gas futures for February delivery closed up 55.3 cents, or 16%, to $3.936 per million British thermal units in New York.

US natural gas prices see best year since 2021 as LNG export demand surges - US natural gas futures retreated on Tuesday as traders booked profits, though the market recorded its biggest annual jump since 2021 fueled by an increase in gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants on rising overseas demand. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 30.1 cents lower, or down 7.7%, at $3.633 per million British thermal units as of 02:42 p.m. EST, as traders took profits after prices surged on Monday to their highest since January 2023. “Gas prices yesterday jumped up on the revised and colder January weather forecast during the weekend, and the decline now is, I believe, a correction from the sharp increases, the magnitude of which may not be fully justified by the prolific gas production in the last a few months,” said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City. Financial firm LSEG estimated 492 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 499 estimated on Monday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping from 118.9 bcfd this week to 144.4 bcfd next week. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 103.3 bcfd so far in December, from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. “Gas prices still have room to head higher in the short to medium terms due to potentially substantial increase in demand in January and February and the possible wellhead freeze offs. No matter what happens, winter weather uncertainty will continue to bring volatilities to gas prices in the next couple of months especially in January,” Zhu added.

U.S. Natural Gas Demand from Mexico LNG Terminal Pushes Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Flows to New Highs - New Fortress Energy Inc.’s (NFE) Fast LNG facility in Mexico is boosting feed gas demand from South Texas to new monthly highs, according to Wood Mackenzie data. The first Fast LNG unit and successive onshore phases receive feed gas supply from CFE’s gas marketing arm, CFEnergía. Supply also comes from the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas via the Valley Crossing pipeline. CFE transports volumes on the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline. At peak operations, Fast LNG is expected to add around 0.18 Bcf/d in feed gas demand to the U.S. market from the Waha hub. NGI’s Waha spot price added 89.0 cents day/day to average $1.890/MMBtu on Monday.

Dallas Fed: Trump Can Cut Red Tape, but Raising Prices Trickier - U.S. oil and gas firms are encouraged by President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, according to the Dallas Fed’s latest survey findings. But they’re also being realistic about what could be a bumpy 2025 for oil and gas prices. While operators see opportunities to untangle regulatory red tape during a second Trump administration, the commander in chief has less sway over global oil and gas prices. Commodity prices, ruled by a broad mix of economics, geopolitics, the weather and other nations—China and OPEC members—have producers fretting. Natural gas’ lackluster 2024 performance remains a particular sore point for both gas- and oil-focused E&Ps.The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ quarterly energy survey is a broad measurement of sentiments across a large swath of the U.S. oil and gas sector. The Dallas Fed’s fourth-quarter survey, published Jan. 2, includes responses from 134 E&Ps and service company executives based in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana. Survey responses were collected between Dec. 11 and 19.Overall sector activity increased slightly in the fourth quarter: The survey’s broadest measurement, the business activity index, increased from -5.9 in the third quarter to 6.0 in the fourth quarter.The increasing sentiment can be attributed in part to the changing political landscape, E&P executives told the survey.“The new administration should have a positive effect on the economy, thus lifting the oil industry,” one executive said.By and large, survey respondents believe a second Trump presidency will eliminate regulatory compliance hurdles and encourage development of new oil and gas projects.Most executives expect permitting times to drill wells on federal lands to improve over the next four years; 33% of respondents expect to see significantly faster federal permitting timelines.Industry experts also say the new administration will likely lift a federal pause on approving new LNG export projects.President Joe Biden formally paused approvals for new LNG export projects in January 2024, slamming the brakes on billions of dollars of investment by energy companies.When announcing the pause, the Department of Energy (DOE) called for an updated analysis of the environmental, economic and national security implications of new LNG export authorizations.When the long-awaited report was published in December, the DOE said that the “astounding” ramp-up in U.S. LNG exports would increase domestic natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emissions. But the report stopped short of saying new projects were not in the best interest of the public—a key consideration in greenlighting a project to move forward.U.S. producers are looking at LNG as a profitable outlet for bountiful natural gas output. An oversupply of gas production, elevated storage inventories and weaker-than-expected demand have kept commodity prices depressed since early 2023.“We need restrictions to be lifted for selling LNG to overseas buyers so that demand for natural gas will increase the prices we receive,” one executive said.

US oil inventories reportedly down by 1.4M barrels -- Crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.44 million barrels in the week ending December 27, according to private data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) released Tuesday. The decline was smaller than the expected 3 million barrels and the 3.2-million-barrel drop recorded the previous week. Reserves at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 305,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2.16 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles saw a rise of 5.72 million barrels.

EIA: US oil output hit record high in October -- US crude oil production surged to a record 13.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Tuesday. This marked a 260,000 bpd increase from September, driven by the highest demand levels since before the pandemic. The year-over-year rise in production of 2.3% came despite lower crude prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaging 16% below the previous year's levels in October. Meanwhile, demand for petroleum products, a key metric tracked by the EIA, climbed to 21.01 million bpd, the highest since August 2019. Distillate fuel oil, including diesel and heating oil, also saw significant growth in demand, rising by 347,000 bpd.

EIA Data Show That US Oil Production Reached A Record --The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil production increased by 260,000 barrels a day (bpd), month over month, to a new record of 13.46 million bpd during October. Demand surged to its highest level since the pandemic. U.S. crude oil production has increased rapidly this year despite concerns about oversupply, which have led to a drop in prices, particularly for China, the world's largest oil importer. Calculations show that U.S. oil output rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, but West Texas Intermediate (WTI), crude futures prices fell by an average of 16% during the month. WTI and Brent crude, the global benchmark, are both on course to suffer their second consecutive annual decline in 2024. EIA data revealed that the previous monthly record for U.S. crude oil production was 13,36 million bpd, in August. The data revealed that the U.S. crude oil and petroleum product supply, as measured by EIA, increased by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 21,01 million bpd, the highest level since August 2019. The demand for distillate fuel oils, including diesel and heating oil rose by 347,000 barrels per day to 4,06 million barrels per day in October. This was the highest level in over a year

Global Natural Gas Prices Mixed as Market Tracks Tightening Supplies — LNG Recap While natural gas prices in the United States charged higher on Monday, overseas benchmarks lost steam after gaining ground The February Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gave up 10 cents on Monday to close at $14.58/MMBtu. The contract finished 7% higher last week, surging to its second weekly gain as an agreement that allows Russia to move natural gas through Ukraine to Europe is set to expire on Tuesday. While alternatives are still being discussed, Russian, Ukrainian and European officials have all ruled out a new deal that would allow about 530 Bcf of Russian natural gas to continue transiting Ukraine.

Hammerfest LNG Outage Adds Upward Pressure to European Natural Gas Prices, LNG Demand - An outage at the Hammerfest LNG terminal in Norway is exacerbating natural gas supply anxiety in Europe as traders weigh the impacts of an end of Russian volumes and falling temperatures. A compressor failure has cut off feed gas supply to the export terminal operated by Equinor ASA until at least Jan. 9, according to an operational notice published Friday by pipeline grid operator Gassco AS. Hammerfest LNG, the only large-scale export terminal in Europe, is located on the island of Melkøya and is fed by the undersea Snøhvit field.

Slovakia rejects Ukraine accusations of opening up second energy front (Reuters) - Slovakia has rejected Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's accusation that Prime Minister Robert Fico had opened a "second energy front" against Kyiv on the orders of Russia as a gas transit dispute deepened between the countries. Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said on Sunday Slovakia was closely monitoring communications from Ukraine regarding Fico's statements and said Zelenskiy's suggestion of an alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin was "fabricated". "We fully understand that they are exposed to a long-term war conflict, but that is why they should not create new enemies and fabricate a formation of a second front because member states of the European Union, including Slovakia, support Ukraine and its people," Blanar said in a Facebook post.Ukraine pumps Russian natural gas through its territory to several European countries including Slovakia but it is expected to halt the flow when the existing transit deal - signed before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine - expires at the end of the year.Fico, who visited Putin in Moscow a week ago, said on Friday Slovakia would consider reciprocal measures against Ukraine such as halting electricity supplies if Kyiv stops the gas transit from Jan. 1 - spurring Zelenskiy's accusation that Slovakia was opening up a second energy front.The Slovak prime minister also posted on Facebook on Sunday, calling on the European Commission to pay close attention to the matter and repeating his claims that the loss of gas transit across Ukraine would hit European consumers and businesses."We are coming to a conclusion that must be unacceptable for the European Union and its goals," Fico wrote in an open letter. "Unilateral stoppage of transit through Ukraine towards Slovakia will cost European citizens, businesses and infrastructure tens of billions."

Ukraine halts Russian gas transit after pre-war deal expires - Ukraine has halted the transportation of Russian gas supplies through the country after a prewar transit deal expired at the end of last year, the nation’s energy minister confirmed.Ukraine Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko said Wednesday morning on the Telegram messaging app that the transit was stopped “in the interests of national security.”“This is a historic event. Russia is losing markets and will incur financial losses. Europe has already decided to phase out Russian gas, and [this] aligns with what Ukraine has done today,” Halushchenko said, according to a translation by The Associated Press.Russia’s Gazprom said in a statement that Kyiv’s refusal to extend the deal means the majority state-owned energy corporation has “no technical or legal possibility” of sending gas through Ukraine. Transportation stopped at 8 a.m. Moscow time, Gazprom said.Even as Russia’s war against Ukraine began in 2022, Russian natural gas flowed through the country’s pipeline network, established when both nations were part of the Soviet Union, to Europe under a five-year deal. Ukraine collected transit fees, while Gazprom earned money from the gas.Nearly 40 percent of the European Union’s pipeline natural gas was supplied by Russia before the war. When the fighting got underway, an energy crisis in Europe followed since Russia cut off most supplies through other pipelines. Europe has since outlined plans to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027.

Russian Gas Flow To Europe Through Ukraine Ends as Deal Expires - Russian gas deliveries to Europe through a Ukrainian pipeline will end on January 1 as a five-year agreement signed in 2019 expires at the end of 2024.Russian gas continued to flow through the Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline following the Russian invasion of Ukraine under a deal signed between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, both state-run gas companies.The Russian news agency TASS reported there were no orders for gas to be pumped through the pipeline on January 1 and said that meant the chances of a last-minute deal to keep the gas flowing were slim. Ukraine chose not to renew the agreement, a step that angered Slovakia, which receives Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline. From Slovakia, the pipeline split and took gas to Austria and the Czech Republic.Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, an opponent of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, had warned Slovakia could take “reciprocal measures” in response to Ukraine not renewing the deal. He said those measures could include cutting electricity exports to Ukraine.In comments to POLITICO, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko dismissed Fico’s threat, saying, “I don’t think that they would do this.” If Slovakia does cut electricity to Ukraine, Poland has said it could boost power production.According to Reuters, Slovakia is not expected to face gas shortages and could make up for what it loses through the pipeline by importing more from Hungary, Poland, and Austria.

Ukraine's halt of Russian gas transit raises supply, price concerns - The halt in Russian gas transit through Ukraine has sparked fears of supply shortages and soaring energy costs, particularly in landlocked European nations like Slovakia. Both Ukraine and Russia announced the stoppage on Wednesday, pushing some EU countries to resort to costlier energy alternatives, Xinhua news agency reported. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Wednesday said that stopping gas transit through Ukraine to Europe will have "severe consequences for all of us in the European Union (EU), but will not harm Russia." The stoppage follows Ukraine's decision not to renew a 2019 gas transit agreement between its state-run Naftogaz and Russia's Gazprom, which expired on December 31, 2024. "At 07:00 a.m. (0500 GMT), in the interests of national security, the transportation of Russian natural gas through the territory of Ukraine was stopped," the Ukrainian Energy Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. Similarly, Gazprom confirmed that it has stopped gas supply due to expiration of key agreements and Ukraine's refusal to renew them. In a letter to the European Commission (EC) on Sunday, Fico condemned Ukraine's gas transit halt as irrational and warned it would heighten tensions and harm the EU more than Russia. He also indicated his government might consider measures such as cutting electricity supplies to Ukraine. Slovakia, heavily dependent on Russian gas, is among the worst-hit countries. It imported approximately 3 billion cubic metres of natual gas from Russia through Ukraine annually, accounting for two-thirds of its demand. However, the EC has downplayed the potential impact, with a spokesperson saying that the European gas infrastructure is "flexible enough" to provide gas of non-Russian origin to central and eastern Europe via alternative routes, and that it has been reinforced with significant new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacities since 2022. Mark Cigoj, editor-in-chief of the Croatian weekly 7 Dnevno, has said that Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary are particularly vulnerable, given their reliance on Russian gas and lack of direct access to LNG imports. Slovakia's Regulatory Authority for Network Industries, the country's energy regulator, has forecasted household gas price increases of 15-34 per cent in 2025 without state energy assistance. To cushion the impact, the Slovak government has allocated around 235 million euros ($244 million) for energy aid, further straining the country's already tight budget. SPP, Slovakia's state-owned gas utility, on Wednesday assured continued supply but acknowledged the increased costs of alternatives. Moldova, which imports approximately 2 billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia via Ukraine, has enacted measures on Wednesday to cut electricity usage by at least 30 per cent. The measures include limiting street lighting, stopping escalators in some public and commercial buildings, and changing the working hours for high-energy-consuming areas. In 2023, roughly 15 billion cubic metres of Russian gas were transported via Ukraine to Europe, accounting for around 5 per cent of Europe's needs. Following the halt of Ukraine transit, the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea becomes the sole remaining route for transporting Russian gas to Europe. According to the EC, the share of Russia's pipeline gas in EU imports has plummeted from over 40 per cent in 2021 to about 8 per cent in 2023. However, Cigoj noted that the EU must develop a clear plan for coordinating gas purchases among member states, warning that higher margins and transport costs will drive up gas prices, further fueling inflation. While many European countries have significantly reduced their reliance on Russian gas since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nations like Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria remain dependent on it. Slovak Vice Premier and Economy Minister Denisa Sakova said on Tuesday that Slovakia is technically well-prepared for the stoppage of gas supplies, as the country has sufficient gas reserves and alternative gas supplies for the year of 2025. However, she warned of challenges if the issue persists into the winter heating season next year.

Türkiye's natural gas imports up 17.7% in October -Türkiye's natural gas imports increased by 17.7% in October, compared to the same month in 2023, according to data from Türkiye's energy watchdog on Monday. Natural gas imports in October reached 3.95 billion cubic meters (bcm), up from approximately 3.35 bcm last year, Türkiye's Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) said in its monthly natural gas market report. In October, 3.58 bcm of imports were made through pipelines and 366.23 million cubic meters (mcm) was imported via liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia was the largest natural gas supplier to Türkiye, providing 1.71 bcm, while Azerbaijan and Iran followed with 1 bcm and, 866.31 mcm, respectively. Algeria exported 866.31 mcm of LNG to Türkiye in October.The country's total gas consumption decreased to 3.14 bcm in October, down by 0.02% compared to the same period last year. Household consumption rose by 6.72% to 434.88 mcm, while gas consumption in power plants decrease by 8.04% to 860.48 mcm, during the same period. The natural gas storage volume in October declined by 4.13% to around 5.16 bcm, compared to 5.38 bcm in October 2023.

BP Nears Liquefaction at Greater Tortue as Natural Gas Starts Flowing — BP plc and Kosmos Energy Ltd. said Thursday they have started natural gas production at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project (GTA) offshore Mauritania and Senegal, keeping it on track to produce the super-chilled fuel this year. Image showing BP's Tortue offshore natgas project. Expand BP, which operates the project, said it has started flowing natural gas from wells to its floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel for the next stage of commissioning. Water, condensate and impurities are removed at the FPSO 25 miles offshore before gas is sent to a floating liquefaction vessel six miles offshore. GTA is one of the deepest offshore natural gas developments in Africa, with resources in water depths of 9,350 feet. Once Phase 1 comes online, which is expected sometime in the first quarter, it is expected to produce 2.3 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG.

Russia: Oil spill from Russian 'shadow fleet' reaches Crimean shore -- Russian officials warned on Thursday that an oil leak from two damaged tankers had reached the beaches of the annexed Crimea peninsula. The two ageing tankers, named Volgoneft-212 and the Volgoneft-239, were carrying 9,200 tons of heavy fuel oil when they ran into a storm last month. They even caused them to start spilling the load into the sea. President Vladimir Putin said it was an "ecological disaster" and that volunteers had joined the massive cleanup operation. Over 10,000 people are now working to rescue wildlife and remove tons of sand saturated with mazut — a heavy oil-based fuel, Russian media report. About 73,000 tons of contaminated sand has already been removed from beaches, of the 200,000 tons officials believe to be affected. Ukraine blames Russian 'shadow fleet' Ukraine has called the spill "the largest in the Black Sea region in the 21st century," accusing Russia of using older vessels no longer suitable for the harsh winter conditions in the area. Kyiv says that, due to Western sanctions against Russian oil and gas companies, Russia has been forced to use a "shadow fleet" of ageing ships to covertly move its supplies to buyers around the world. "Most of the more than 1,000 tankers of the Russian 'shadow fleet' are hopelessly outdated, have fictitious insurance policies, conceal their true owners, and often overload oil at sea. Other large-scale accidents are statistically inevitable," Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said last month.

Kerch Strait oil spill significantly smaller than initially thought, Russia claims --The amount of oil spilled in the Kerch Strait by two Russian oil tankers is "significantly less than the initial estimate," Russia's Transport Ministry claimed on Jan. 2.Two Russian oil tankers,Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239, suffered severe damage during a storm on Dec. 15. Both vessels were reportedly carrying a total of 9,200 tons of fuel, which began leaking into the Black Sea.Russian state news outlet RIA Novosti initially reported that some 3,700 tons of low-grade fuel oil have spilled into the Kerch Strait, forcing Russia to declare a federal state of emergency in response to the spill.Russian scientist Viktor Danilov-Danilyan said in a press conference on Dec. 25 that about 200,000 tons of soil along the Black Sea coast have been contaminated, while Greenpeace Ukraine warned on Dec. 16 that the destruction of the Russian oil tankers could cause "significant" environmental damage.On Jan. 2, Russia's Transport Ministry claimed that only about 2,400 metric tons of oil had spilled, citing a skewed account "of one of the tanker captains." The Transport Ministry added that the M100-grade fuel oil spilled into the sea solidifies at a lower temperature, thus sinking to the surface instead of remaining at the surface.The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Russian officials.The Kerch Strait separates mainland Russia from Russian-occupied Crimea.In October, the Kyiv School of Economics Institute warned that Russia's "shadow fleet" of old and poorly insured tankers pose significant environmental risks, as these vessels increase the danger of oil spills.Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has caused massive environmental damage, including the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and subsequent flooding, widespread forest fires, and the devastation of wide stretches of farm land.

Russia reports new oil spill in Black Sea - A new oil spill has been detected in the Black Sea on the Dynamo beach in the Russian town of Anapa, the operational headquarters of the Krasnodar region said in a post on Telegram. The authorities noted an oil spill was discovered today morning and stressed it is "being quickly removed. 50 people are working on the site: employees of the municipal administration, rural settlements, municipal enterprises." Earlier this month, fuel spills were reported following the sinking of two Russian ships in the Kerch Strait, with the country's President Vladimir Putin calling the spills an "environmental disaster."

India’s import of Russian crude oil falls in December - India's import of Russian crude oil falls in december, ramps up supplies from middle-East international locations India's import of Russian crude oil in december fell to the lowest inside the year resulting from rising domestic call for from moscow as its refineries resumed operations after the protection season. no matter the steep fall in imports from russia, the united states remained the top crude oil dealer to india, records from commodity marketplace analytics company Kpler confirmed. india imported 1.forty four million barrels consistent with day (bpd) of crude oil from russia in december, declining from 1.seventy eight million bpd in the preceding month. "Indian refiners hold to prioritize Russian crude, as even marginal discounts yield substantial savings in mild of India's over eighty five% crude import dependency. As the world's 1/3-largest crude consumer, india stays heavily willing in the direction of value-efficient alternatives, making Russian crude imperative to its procurement method regardless of shrinking discounts," said sumit Ritolia, senior oil refining analyst at Kpler. discounts supplied by means of moscow to indian refiners on buy of crude oil has declined sharply in 2024 as a consequence of larger marketplace for Russian oil. To supplement the drop in Russian volumes in december, refiners an increasing number of turned to standard center-jap suppliers. In december, iraq provided 1.23 million bpd of crude oil to india, better than 890,000 bpd within the previous month, at the same time as saudi arabia provided 582,000 bpd of crude, compared to 621,000 bpd in November. India's general crude oil imports additionally improved in december pushed by resumption in refinery activity. india imported four.eight million bpd of crude oil in december, as compared to 4.7 bpd inside the preceding month, confirmed records. "India's crude oil imports experienced a remarkable rebound in november and december 2024, pushed with the aid of the resumption of full-capacity operations at home refineries following the seasonal preservation shutdowns. This restoration in refinery utilization, along strong domestic demand for fuels and petroleum products, extensively boosted crude oil imports. The uptick highlights India's robust post-preservation operational momentum in overdue 2024, putting a stable foundation for Q1 2025," stated Ritolia. Kpler expects India's crude oil imports to stay strong, supported by way of ramped-up refinery operations. higher oil call for is probable to increase into the first zone of 2025, driven via seasonal call for and kingdom refiners maximizing throughput to meet economic-yr goals and rising home consumption, it added. "looking beforehand to 2025, new refining capacities together with the Barmer Greenfield Refinery, in conjunction with capability expansions at Barauni (60 kbd), panipat (116 kbd), and Visakhapatnam RHCU, are anticipated to similarly elevate crude import volumes. but, periodic refinery preservation activities may additionally bring about short-term fluctuations in import stages, emphasizing the cyclical nature of India's crude demand," stated Kpler.

Türkiye's oil imports down 7.82% in October - Türkiye's total oil imports decreased by 7.82% to 3.91 million tons in October compared to the same month in 2023, according to recent data released by the country's energy watchdog on Monday. Crude oil imports, the category with the highest oil import volume, decline by 25.9% in October to 2.18 million tons, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) said in its monthly report. Türkiye imported the majority of its crude oil and oil product needs from Russia in October, totaling 2.15 million tons. Iraq and Saudi Arabia followed with 494,430 tons and 321,754 tons, respectively. Oil refinery product exports decreased by 26,71% to 947,436 tons. Additionally, domestic oil product sales increased by 10.9% year-over-year in October to 2.97 million tons.

Turkey Plans New Oil Pipeline to Syria -- Turkey is considering the construction of a new oil pipeline to Syria, which would also be integrated with the existing Iraq-Turkey pipeline, according to a statement made by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. The minister explained that while there are many aspects of the project still under development, the plan envisions a direct pipeline from Syria to Turkey that would be connected to the Turkey-Iraq oil pipeline, reported by a local media outlet, Rudaw. This proposed pipeline is part of Turkey's broader efforts to strengthen its influence in the region by fostering ties with Syria, a country that has long been embroiled in political unrest. Bayraktar’s comments came after Turkey took significant steps to establish diplomatic relations with Syria’s new interim government. This government was formed earlier this month by rebel forces who successfully ousted President Bashar al-Assad, marking the end of over five decades of Baathist rule in Syria. Following the regime’s collapse, Turkey has moved quickly to capitalize on the power vacuum and is looking to play a central role in Syria’s future, particularly in the reconstruction of the country using its vast natural resources. One of the key resources Turkey is eyeing is Syria’s oil, which holds great potential to help revive the nation’s struggling economy. Syria's oil production has dramatically declined in recent decades, a fact Bayraktar emphasized in his statement. In the early 2000s, Syria produced around 600,000 barrels of oil per day, a figure that has since plummeted to approximately 30,000 barrels per day. This drastic reduction in oil output has had a severe impact on Syria's income from one of its most important natural resources, leaving the country economically crippled. Bayraktar believes that by tapping into Syria's oil potential and rebuilding its infrastructure, there is a significant opportunity to reinvigorate the nation’s economy and improve its financial situation. He suggested that Turkey’s expertise in energy and infrastructure could be instrumental in supporting Syria’s recovery. Turkey had been a staunch critic of President Assad for much of the Syrian Civil War, providing strong support to opposition forces and advocating for regime change. However, in a notable shift in foreign policy, Ankara has recently started to reengage diplomatically with Syria. Turkey was one of the first countries to reopen its embassy in Damascus and establish ties with Syria’s newly formed leadership. This shift in approach reflects a broader strategic recalculation by Turkey, which is now seeking to assert its influence in Syria's post-Assad era. Bayraktar further indicated that he is planning to lead a Turkish delegation to Syria in the near future. This visit would likely focus on exploring the details of potential collaboration on energy and infrastructure projects, including the proposed oil pipeline. By strengthening its relationship with Syria, Turkey hopes to position itself as a key player in the country’s future, with a particular focus on its energy resources. If successful, this pipeline project could help both countries benefit from Syria's oil reserves, providing economic opportunities for reconstruction while enhancing Turkey's energy security and regional influence.

Iraqi cabinet approves $4.6 billion Basrah-Haditha oil pipeline project (Reuters) - The Iraqi cabinet has given approval for a Basrah-Haditha oil pipeline project, a statement from the Prime Minister's office said on Monday. The pipeline will cost about 5.97 trillion Iraqi dinars ($4.56 billion), the statement said. Iraq's oil ministry said in August that the proposed pipeline would transport crude oil to the country's central and southern regions. Iraq's current oil output stands at about 4 million barrels per day, oil ministry officials say.

Oil spill at Shell’s Pulau Bukom refinery is the second incident in three months Singapore News -- Shell’s Pulau Bukom refinery experienced an oil spill on December 27, marking the second such occurrence at the facility in the past three months. The latest incident involved a leak from an oil processing unit that produces diesel and other refined products, with several tonnes of refined oil products discharged into the sea through the facility’s cooling water system. The cooling system, which uses seawater to regulate the temperature of oil products during the refining process, inadvertently released the oil, resulting in visible sheens near a wharf at the Shell Energy and Chemical Park on Pulau Bukom. Upon detecting the spill, Shell immediately shut down the affected unit and activated its emergency response protocols. Containment and cleanup efforts included deploying containment and absorbent booms, spraying dispersants, and using a built-in skimmer system within the cooling water discharge channel to recover spilled oil. The company’s response was bolstered by the involvement of the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), the National Environment Agency (NEA), and other local agencies. Response boats were dispatched to clean up the oil sheens, and drones and satellites provided aerial monitoring to track the spill’s impact. Although no oil slicks were detected on nearby beaches, absorbent booms were preemptively deployed at Sisters’ Islands Marine Park and Sentosa’s beaches as a precaution. The authorities have since confirmed that the beaches remained unaffected and safe for public use throughout the incident. This is the second oil spill at the Pulau Bukom refinery in recent months, raising questions about operational safety and environmental risks associated with the facility. Shell has assured the public that it is working to investigate the cause of the incident and implement measures to prevent future occurrences. Pulau Bukom, located just off Singapore’s southern coast, is home to Shell’s largest integrated refinery and petrochemical hub in the region. The facility plays a key role in producing refined products for both domestic and international markets. Concerned Singaporeans are urging Shell and authorities to prioritize transparency in their investigation and ensure stricter safeguards to mitigate further risks.

Bulk Carriers Collide in China's Changjiang River, Spilling Fuel Oil -- A collision between two bulk carriers in China’s Changjiang River has resulted in a fuel oil spill and hull damage. The incident, which occurred at approximately 10 p.m. Singapore time on December 30, involved the Singapore-registered YANGZE 22 and the Japan-registered VEGA DREAM. Following the collision, YANGZE 22 reported hull damage and approximately 9 metric tonnes of fuel oil released. The vessel is currently at Hengsha East Anchorage undergoing damage assessment. Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration (MSA), which is coordinating cleanup efforts alongside support vessels, reported that the situation is under control. Both vessels remain in stable condition, and no crew injuries have been reported. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has confirmed it will investigate the incident and is maintaining contact with both YANGZE 22′s ship management company and Shanghai MSA.

Two Bulk Carriers Collide in China's Yangtze River, Oil Spill Reported - Two bulk carriers collided in the Yangtze River in China, on December 30, 2024, resulting in an oil spill. The incident involved the Singapore-flagged Kamsarmax bulk carrier Yangze 22, and the Japanregistered Capesize bulk carrier Vega Dream, operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. The collision occurred around 10 p.m. local time in the northern channel of the river. Preliminary reports suggest that the outbound Yangze 22 executed a port-side maneuver, leading to a collision with the inbound Vega Dream. The impact struck the Yangze 22 on its starboard side near the No. 5 cargo hold, causing damage to an oil tank. Approximately nine metric tons of fuel oil spilled into the river following the collision. The Yangze 22 has been anchored at Hengsha East Anchorage for damage assessment, while the Vega Dream was safely moored at Baoshan North Anchorage with the assistance of tugboats. The Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) is leading the clean-up operations, with support from vessels deployed by the Yangze 22's management company. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has confirmed that the spillage is under control and that both vessels remain in stable condition. No injuries to crew members on either vessel have been reported. The incident highlights the importance of navigational safety in busy waterways. The MSA is investigating the cause of the collision to prevent similar incidents in the future. Impact and Response The oil spill poses a potential threat to the marine environment, including local wildlife and fisheries. The swift response from the MSA and the deployment of clean-up resources are crucial to mitigating the environmental impact of the incident. The collision also serves as a reminder of the risks associated with maritime transportation. The increasing volume of shipping traffic in global waterways necessitates robust safety measures and continuous improvement in navigational practices to minimize the risk of accidents. This incident underscores the importance of international cooperation in maritime safety. The involvement of the MPA in the response demonstrates the collaborative efforts of maritime authorities in addressing such incidents. Further The investigation into the cause of the collision is ongoing. Further updates on the clean-up efforts and the assessment of the damage to the vessels are expected in the coming days. The Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) is overseeing the cleanup efforts, with extra assistance from ships provided by the management company of the Yangze 22. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has confirmed that the spill is contained and that both vessels are in stable condition.

Iran for resumption of oil trade with India - Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi is on a visit to India seeking to resume trade in oil and natural gas, which was suspended in 2019 following US-backed sanctions. Other items on the agenda include increasing bilateral trade in both energy and non-energy sectors, improving connectivity and tourism, regional and international security and adding projects at the Chabahar Port in Iran. A senior Iranian official was quoted by a news agency as saying, “We used to have good economic ties but they are not same after sanctions, nevertheless there are opportunities to have better traditional energy trade.” Iran is expected to suggest to India to make a petro-chemical plant at the Chabahar port, which is not on the list of sanctioned entities in Iran. This plant can possibly be used for future trade in oil. In May last year a 10-year agreement was signed by India and Iran to develop the port as a regional connectivity hub was signed in May last year.

The Crude Market Traded Higher Ahead of the New Year -- The crude market traded higher in thin volume trading ahead of the New Year as the market remained supported by optimism for Chinese economic growth next year after China’s government announced further stimulus measures last week. The market was also led by the strength in the heating oil market as frigid temperatures are expected across the Midwest and eastern U.S. from January 2^nd-12^th. The crude market, which posted an inside trading day on Friday, breached its previous highs as it remained well supported. The oil market posted a low of $70.12 on the opening and rallied over 96 cents to a high of $71.56 in early afternoon trading. The market later erased some of its gains ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up 39 cents at $70.99 and the February Brent contract settled up 22 cents at $74.39. The product markets settled higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.47 cents at $2.2995 and the RB market settling up 1.81 cents at $1.9763. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 149,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 3^rd, decreasing available refining capacity by 108,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 845,000 bpd in the week ending January 10^th.Citgo Petroleum Corp reported a spill at its 177,000 bpd Lemont, Illinois refinery on Sunday. It said the spill did not originate at the refinery.Several trade sources said China has issued at least 152.49 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners in a second batch for 2025 so far. These quotas are being issued in batches by provinces this year and follow a recent small batch of 5.84 million tons that was issued in November. This brings the total volume issued for 2025 so far to 158.33 million tons or 3.17 million bpd versus a total of 179.01 million tons for 2024. Trades sources stated that China has issued 87.85 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners in Shandong and Zhejiang provinces in a second batch for 2025Supply of the five North Sea crude oil grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark will average about 550,000 bpd in February, down from 588,000 bpd in January.According to LSEG, heating degree days are expected to increase to 499 over the next two weeks in the U.S., compared with 399 estimated on Friday. Meteorologists at LSEG also anticipate temperatures turning colder in Europe in January.

Oil rises on diesel demand boost in sparse holiday trade (Reuters) -Oil prices settled higher on Monday in thin late-year trade as investors bet on a drop in temperatures across the U.S. and Europe over the coming weeks to boost diesel demand. Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $74.39 a barrel. The more active March contract settled at $73.99 a barrel, up 20 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 39 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $70.99 a barrel. U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures settled 2.5% higher at $2.30 a gallon, the highest since Nov. 5. "Diesel prices are leading the energy complex," fuel distributor TACenergy's trading desk wrote on Monday. Concerns of colder weather in the weeks ahead are boosting diesel as a substitute for natural gas in space heating, TACenergy wrote. Heating degree days, a measure of energy demand for space heating, are expected to rise to 499 over the next two weeks in the U.S., compared with 399 estimated on Friday, according to LSEG. Meteorologists at the firm also anticipate temperatures turning colder in Europe in January. U.S. natural gas futures surged 17% to their highest level since January 2023, boosted by the weather forecasts and rising export demand. Further support for oil prices could come from declining U.S. crude stockpiles, which are expected to have fallen by about 3 million barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Both Brent and WTI rose about 1.4% last week buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude inventories in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand. [EIA/S] Investors are also waiting for China's PMI factory surveys, due on Tuesday, followed by U.S. ISM survey on Friday, to gauge the economic health of the top oil-consuming nations. A weak Chinese economy could cause oversupply in oil markets next year, said Alex Hodes, analyst at brokerage firm StoneX. Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025 to revive economic growth, Reuters reported last week. Oil-market participants are also speculating that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will cut Iranian crude oil exports to below 500,000 barrels per day through sanctions, taking over 1 million barrels of daily crude oil supply off the global market, Hodes said.

Oil prices rise on Chinese factory data, but set for yearly declines -- Oil prices rose in Asian Trade on Tuesday as Chinese manufacturing activity reading boosted sentiment, while trading was thin on the last day of the year as investors assessed the outlook for the upcoming year. At 21:05 ET (02:05 GMT), Brent Oil Futures rose 0.7% to $74.51 a barrel, and Crude Oil WTI Futures expiring in February also jumped 0.7% to $71.05 a barrel. Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year's start as many institutional investors and traders took time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity. Chinese manufacturing data in focus, U.S. ISM survey on tap China’s manufacturing sector expanded in December but at a slower-than-expected pace, marking its third straight month of expansion as a raft of fresh stimulus measures provided support, purchasing managers index data showed on Tuesday. The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world's largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries. Markets are awaiting more clarity on Beijing’s plans for stimulus measures in the coming year. Recent reports suggested that the country will ramp up fiscal spending to support economic growth. Additionally, the U.S. releases the ISM survey for December on Friday, and traders will be seeking clues about the strength of economic activity in the world’s largest energy consumer. Both contracts were heading for annual declines, with WTI set to slip nearly 1% and Brent dropping on track to lose nearly 4%, as traders remain wary about China's economic outlook and the possibility of oversupply in the months ahead. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had recently raised its demand forecast for next year but maintained its projection that the oil market will remain adequately supplied. Latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data has shown that U.S. oil production remains near record levels, and the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to agree to policies that would focus on ramping up domestic fossil fuel production. Market participants are also cautious about the broader economic concerns, including weaker-than-expected demand growth in China, traditionally a key driver for global oil consumption. China's oil demand has been contracting, further underscoring the expected oversupply scenario. Traders are concerned about the 2025 outlook as rising supply and tepid demand recovery weigh on the balance sheets.

Oil prices post 3% annual decline, slipping for second year in a row (Reuters) -Oil prices fell around 3% in 2024, slipping for a second straight year, as the post-pandemic demand recovery stalled, China's economy struggled, and the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers pumped more crude into a well-supplied global market. Brent crude futures on Tuesday, the last trading day of the year, settled up 65 cents, or 0.88%, to $74.64 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 73 cents, or 1.03%, to $71.72 a barrel. The Brent benchmark settled down around 3% from its final 2023 closing price of $77.04, while WTI was roughly flat with last year's final settlement. In September, Brent futures closed below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021, and this year Brent broadly traded under highs seen in the past few years as the post-pandemic demand rebound and price shocks of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine began to fade. Oil will likely trade around $70 a barrel in 2025 on weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies, offsetting OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Tuesday. A weaker demand outlook in China in particular forced both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut their oil demand growth expectations for 2024 and 2025. The IEA sees the oil market entering 2025 in surplus, even after OPEC and its allies delayed their plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices. U.S. oil production rose 259,000 barrels per day to a record high of 13.46 million bpd in October, as demand surged to the strongest levels since the pandemic, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Tuesday. Output is set to rise to a new record of 13.52 million bpd next year, the EIA said. Investors will be watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut outlook for 2025 after Fed bank policymakers this month projected a slower path due to stubbornly high inflation. Lower interest rates generally spur economic growth, which feeds energy demand. Some analysts still believe supply could tighten next year depending on President-elect Donald Trump's policies, including those on sanctions. He has called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, and he could re-impose a so-called maximum pressure policy toward Iran, which could have major implications for oil markets. "With the possibility of tighter sanctions on Iranian oil with Trump coming in next month, we are looking at a much tighter oil market going into the new year,"

Oil Prices Rise At The Start Of 2025 As Demand Optimism Prevails -- Oil prices began the 2025 trading year with a rise in Asia on Thursday as market sentiment turned positive on expectations of stronger economic and oil demand growth.Oil prices have been rangebound for most of the fourth quarter amid concerns about demand in China and other major economies and expectations of an oversupply this year.For 2024, oil saw a second consecutive year of annual declines, falling by about 3% compared to the last closing price of 2023.On Thursday, the first trading day of 2025, oil was up by half a percentage in Asian trade as the market digested signals that China would introduce additional measures to boost its economic growth this year.The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading 0.43% higher at $72.04 in early Asian trade.Brent Crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.42% at $74.97 per barrel.China is set to be more proactive in measures to boost economic growth in 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year's address.In a separate speech, Xi also suggested that China would meet its official 2024 economic growth target of 5%.Official oil consumption data from the United States also boosted positive market sentiment.Earlier this week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that America's total oil demand hit 21.01 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2024. This was the highest volume of total crude oil and petroleum products supplied – a proxy for demand – since the pandemic, and a jump of about 700,000 bpd compared to September 2024.Later on Thursday, the market and traders will be watching the EIA weekly crude and fuels inventory report for additional insights.“With a balance between supply discipline and economic recovery, crude oil prices are poised for a potential recovery driven by geopolitical and economic factors,” Axis Securities says in a note on oil prices, as carried by The Wall Street Journal.

WTI Holds Near 3-Month Highs As Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom - Graphics Source: Bloomberg Oil prices kicked off 2025 with strong gains as WTI pushed above $73 - its highest since October - as it broke above a key technical level after API reported a small crude draw last night. The prices gains came despite a weak China PMIs (which potentially prompots more hope for further stimulus), but was helped by a modest rise in US PMIs."President Xi Jinping's statements promising more proactive policies to stimulate growth have raised expectations of increased energy demand. While recent data indicates marginal growth in the country's manufacturing activity, sectors such as services and construction have started showing signs of recovery, suggesting a gradual strengthening of China's economy," said Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, in a note.This morning we get the final look at supply and inventory data from the DOE:“A draw is likely because producer and storage operators generally try to empty their tanks by year-end for tax reasons,” .API

• Crude -1.4mm
• Cushing +300k
• Gasoline +2.2mm
• Distillates +5.7mm

DOE

• Crude -1.18mm
• Cushing -142k
• Gasoline +7.72mm -- biggest build since year-end 2024
• Distillates +6.41mm -- biggest build since year-end 2024

The official data confirmed API's with the sixth straight weekly crude drawdown (and another draw at the Cushing hub) but product stocks soared higher (as year-end tax-related issues likely affected them)... Including the addition of a further 260k barrels to SPR, total US crude inventories declined for the sixth straight week...Stocks at the crucial Cushing hub slipped closer to 'tank bottoms' - lowest since Oct 2023...US Crude production dipped very modestly off record highs... WTI surged above its 100DMA to its highest since October ahead of the official inventory data

Oil prices rise 2% on China optimism as investors return from holiday - Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday as investors returned for the first trading day of the new year with an optimistic eye on China's economy and fuel demand after a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth. Brent crude futures rose $1.65, or 2.2%, to $76.29 a barrel by 11:17 a.m. EST (1617 GMT), after gaining 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day of 2024. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.75, or 2.4%, at $73.47. Xi said in his New Year's address on Tuesday that China would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025. China's factory activity grew in December, a Caixin/S&P Global survey showed on Thursday, but at a slower pace than expected, amid concerns about how tariƒs proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will aƒect trade. The data echoed an oƒicial survey released on Tuesday, which showed China's manufacturing activity barely grew in December. However, services and construction fared better, with the data suggesting policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors. Weaker Chinese data is seen by some analysts as positive for oil prices because it could prompt Beijing to accelerate its stimulus programme. Swelling fuel inventories in the United States, however, limited gains. U.S. oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday, released a day later than normal due to the New Year holiday, showed that gasoline and distillate inventories jumped last week. U.S. gasoline stocks swelled by 7.7 million barrels in the week to 231.4 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 6.4 million barrels in the week to 122.9 million barrels. Crude stockpiles, meanwhile, fell less than expected, decreasing by 1.2 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels last week compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.8-million-barrel draw. As traders return to their desks, they are probably weighing higher geopolitical risks and Trump running the U.S. economy red hot against the expected impact of tariƒs, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. "Tomorrow's U.S. ISM manufacturing release will be key to crude oil's next move," Oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel in 2025, down for a third year after a 3% decline in 2024, with weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies oƒsetting OPEC+ eƒorts to shore up the market, a Reuters poll showed. In Europe, Russia halted gas pipeline exports through Ukraine on New Year's Day after the transit agreement expired on Dec. 31. The European Union has arranged alternative supply ahead of the widely expected stoppage while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.

Oil Futures Soared as Crude Stocks Slid Last Week - Oil futures kept their upward trend from last week in the first trading session of 2025, supported by low crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration Thursday, despite a hike in gasoline and diesel stocks due to sluggish demand. Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. dropped by 1.2 million bbl to 415.6 million bbl in the week ended Dec. 27, EIA data released Thursday showed. Oil futures were mixed at the close of the week on Friday as U.S. crude stocks declined for the fifth consecutive week while gasoline and distillate builds... In contrast, gasoline stocks rose 7.7 million bbl week-over-week to reach 231.4 million bbl, while distillate fuel stocks soared 6.4 million bbl to 122.9 million bbl last week, according to EIA. Oil futures prices also rallied reaching multi-month high records after the Labor Department said Thursday morning that Initial Unemployment Claims fell by 9,000 to 211,000 last week, to its lowest level since March, giving signals of steady job security for U.S. workers. Another economic indicator setting the bullish tone in the oil futures market during the day was the Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index PMI released on Thursday, which came in at 50.5 in December, compared with 51.5 in November. The index showed that the Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in the last month of 2024, despite lower exports affecting overall demand. On Tuesday, Dec. 31, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China's economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory. Jinping anticipated the national GDP for 2024 is expected to surpass 130 trillion yuan, about $18.08 trillion. In 2024, oil prices remained under downward pressure due to the lack of demand from China, the main buyer of crude in the world, which continues struggling to reactivate its domestic consumption. The February NYMEX WTI futures contract climbed by $1.47 to $73.19 bbl, while the front-month ICE Brent futures contract rose by $1.32 to $75.96 bbl. January RBOB futures edged up $0.0435 to $2.0527 gallon, while front-month ULSD rose by $0.0415 to $2.3579 gallon.

Oil prices rise; set for second straight weekly gain --Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as optimism around China's economic growth lifted market sentiment.The Brent Oil Futures were last up 0.8% to $76.6 a barrel, and Crude Oil WTI Futures expiring in February was up 1.1% to $73.3 a barrel. Oil had gained sharply in the previous session after data showed growth in Chinese factory activity.Both contracts were on course for second consecutive weekly gains, with WTI 1.3% and Brent0.9% higher. China's factory activity grew in December, a Caixin/S&P Global survey showed on Thursday, but at a slower pace than expected.An official survey released on Tuesday also showed that China's manufacturing activity barely grew in December. However, services and construction fared better, with the data suggesting that policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors.Beijing has signaled looser monetary policy for 2025 and has doled out a raft of major stimulus measures since late September, in order to boost its sluggish economy.China's central bank has indicated that it plans to lower interest rates from the current 1.5% “at an appropriate time” in 2025, the Financial Times reported on Friday.US crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks saw significant increases as demand softened during the week ending December 27, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday.The EIA stated that crude inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week, falling short of analysts' expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel decrease.Latest EIA surveys have shown that U.S. oil production remains near record levels, and the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to agree to policies that would focus on ramping up domestic fossil fuel production.This comes amid worries about potential oversupply driven by anticipated production increases from non-OPEC nations, further underscoring an oversupply scenario.The International Energy Agency recently said that the oil market will remain adequately supplied, despite a rise in demand forecast for 2025.

Oil prices score weekly gains, buoyed by China policy support Oil futures settled higher on Friday, posting solid gains in a holiday-shortened week after being buoyed by expectations of further stimulus in China, the world's largest crude importer, to boost its sputtering economy.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery 25 rose 83 cents, or 1.1%, to end at $73.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices based on the front month ended 4.8% higher for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, popped 58 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $76.51 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It was up 3.7% for the week.
• -- Prices for U.S. and global benchmark oil scored their largest weekly gains since the week ending Dec. 13, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- February gasoline RBG25 finished nearly flat, at $2.0537 a gallon, for a weekly advance of 4.2%, while February heating oil HOG25 dropped 0.3% to $2.3478 a gallon, up nearly 4.4% for the week.
• -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 declined 8.4% to end at $3.3540 per million British thermal units, ending 0.9% below the week-ago close.

Crude kicked off the new year with solid gains this week, boosted by remarks from China President Xi Jinping, who pledged more proactive economic policies to boost growth in 2025. On Friday, Beijing announced it would increase the issuance of ultralong-term special Treasury bonds that can be used to promote large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods, news reports said. "Despite Brent's trading liquidity remaining thin during the first trading day of 2025, the initial trend appears supportive of higher prices," Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, said in a note. General trading sentiment also indicates that traders have worried about geopolitical risks, particularly with Donald Trump's inauguration approaching on Jan. 20, the analyst wrote. "His policy pledges could collide with ground realities, particularly concerning the Ukraine and ongoing Middle East tensions - potential catalysts for the re-emergence of a risk premium in Brent prices. Still, whether this expectation holds or proves otherwise will become clearer with price movements in the coming days," Assiri said. Traders were also watching for further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to buoy the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management said on Friday that its manufacturing PMI rose to a nine-month high of 49.3 last month, from 48.4 in November. A reading below 50 typically suggests contraction in the manufacturing industry. American businesses are betting that the incoming Trump administration could strengthen the economy and corporate America, but some of his economic plans, such as high tariffs and a crackdown on immigration, could hurt businesses and send borrowing costs higher again. The U.S. government on Thursday revealed a sixth straight weekly decline in domestic commercial crude inventories, which fell by 1.2 million barrels for the week that ended Dec. 27, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts had expected a decline of 2.4 million barrels.

Foreign Jihadists Appointed to Senior Positions in New Syrian Military - Foreign jihadists have been appointed in senior positions in the new Syrian military, which is now led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda that led the offensive that ousted former President Bashar al-Assad. Syrian sources told Reuters that the foreign fighters appointed to the military include Uyghurs, a Jordanian, a Turk, and an Albanian. “This is a small token of recognition for the sacrifices Islamist jihadists gave to our struggle for freedom from Assad’s oppression,” an HTS source told the media outlet. Among the Uyghurs is Abdulaziz Dawood Khudaberdi, the commander of the Turkistan Islamic Party’s (TIP) forces in Syria. The TIP’s stated goal is to create an Islamic State in China’s western Xinjiang region. Khudaberdi was named a brigadier general in the Syrian military, and two other Uyghur fighters were appointed colonels. Sources told Reuters that Turkish citizen Omar Mohammed Jaftashi and Jordanian citizen Abdul Rahman Hussein al-Khatib were also made brigadier-generals. Abdul Jashari, an Albanian fighter who was designated a terrorist by the US Treasury Department, was made a colonel.HTS is still designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization, but the Biden administration has celebrated its takeover of Syria. The US has also made clear it’s willing to work with the new government and its de facto leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who has been going by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa. Earlier this month, Barbara Leaf, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, met with Julani and announced the US was removing a $10 million bounty on his head. Julani, a former al-Qaeda leader, appointed other HTS members in senior positions of the “transitional government” and has said elections in Syria probably won’t happen for at least four years.

Fighting Between Turkey, Syrian Kurds Escalates, at Least 31 Killed - Fighting has been raging off and on for weeks, but seems to be picking up intensity this weekend along the Syria-Turkey border, with Turkey and its affiliates fighting against the Kurdish SDF in and around Manbij. At least 31 combatants between the two sides have been killed since Sunday. Turkey had been building up forces along the border for weeks, and has been talking up an offensive aimed at eliminating the Kurdish YPG, the largest faction within the SDF. Though fighting isn’t a new occurrence in the area, it has plainly gotten more aggressive on both sides since then.Turkey’s allies in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have been attacking the SDF in several areas, with fighting around Manbij in the Aleppo Province, but also incidents reported in Raqqa Province and artillery strikes by Turkey against silos in the Hasakeh Province, causing substantial damage.The SDF has carried out its own offensives, especially around Manbij and the nearby Tishreen Dam. The SDF claims that Turkey is setting up two military bases there, inside Syrian territory, and attacked and destroyed radar systems at those bases, along with at least one Turkish tank.The SDF described this as “Martyr Eziz Ereb Manbij Operation,” saying it was aimed to stop those bases being established and to repel the invasion attempt. In addition to ground operations, the SDF also shelled the town of Abo Qalqak, southeast of Manbij.Beyond the Turkish attacks on SDF forces in the area, Turkey also carried out multiple drone strikes near the Tishreen Dam, trying to stop SDF offensives.In the course of strikes between the two factions, the village of al-Aloush was hit. One child was killed in the incident, and one other was wounded. It’s unclear from the reports which side actually hit the civilians.Turkey has been demanding that the US stop backing the SDF and promises to “do whatever it takes” to eliminate the YPG. It doesn’t seem like that’s happening, however. Indeed, the US and coalition allies areholding training operations for the SDF in Hasakeh concurrent with the increased fighting, increasing the SDF’s combat readiness and training them in the use of heavy artillery.Ironically, while the Pentagon didn’t detail those training operations, it did claim that a “ceasefire” between Turkey and the SDF was holding in Manbij. The US has repeatedly claimed that there is such a ceasefire, though Turkey has said there never was, and never will be. The intense fighting seemingly underscores that the US ceasefire narrative wasn’t true at all, but US officials continue to offer it.

Israeli Army Advances Deeper Into Syria’s Quneitra Province - The regime change in Syria earlier this month was followed almost immediately by an Israeli invasion across the demilitarized zone line separating Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria. Since then, that invasion keeps getting deeper, with troops reportedly reaching the city of Quneitra on Monday. Israeli troops and tanks surrounded government buildings in the town of al-Baath in the Queneitra countryside, ordering officials to withdraw from the area and claiming they were “conducting inspections.” Quneitra City is even deeper into Syrian territory, about 2 miles, beyond the UNDOF demilitarized zone and inside southern Syria proper. In al-Baath, they focused not just on government buildings, but also an automated bakery and the Real Estate Bank. All workers were expelled from those buildings after they were surrounded by Israeli tanks. Israel has already seized Mount Hermon, a strategic location at which it intends to stay throughout at least all of 2025. More recently it has seizedwater resources in the Yarmouk River Basin, ensuring that the Israeli military will have de facto control over these parts of Syria for, potentially, as long as it wants.Israel has yet to make any statements on its latest advances into Syria. The incursion, combined with an ever-growing number of deadly airstrikes across the country, are leading to considerable speculation about Tel Aviv’s long-term intentions. The only thing Israeli officials are emphasizing publicly is that their air strikes are intended to destroy old military assets of the Assad government. The new Islamist government in Syria has been talking up a better relationship with Israel, but Israeli officials are indicating that they don’t consider the new government legitimate, and seem to be as hostile militarily toward Syria as they were before the regime change.

Israeli Forces Advance Deeper Into Southern Lebanon, Burning Homes - Sunday marks 33 days into the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. So far, Israel has committed at least 329 violations of that ceasefire, and officials are more and more open in saying they probably won’t withdraw from Lebanon in 60 days, as they were meant to under the deal. The violations include airstrikes and gunfire in several areas across southern Lebanon, but the Marjayoun District seems to be the most serious focus in recent days. Israeli troops have invaded the towns of Qantara and Taybeh, and have begun burning civilian homes in both. Israel started the new offensive last week, invading areas deeper than into Lebanon than they’d managed to occupy during the war. They hit Wadi al-Hujeir first and were expelling the civilian population with heavy machinegun fire. Wadi al-Hujeir is just west of the towns hit this weekend, pushing them closer to the Litani River. The UNIFIL peacekeepers were told before this new offensive that they should keep patrols away from the Marjayoun District for their own safety. Israel has attacked UNIFIL sites and personnel multiple times during the war, and has consistently warned them away from their operations. This seems to be the first time they’re actively warning UNIFIL about offensive operations after the ceasefire. Since the ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 33 people and wounded 37 others, mostly in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has largely not retaliated over the attacks, but Israel still accuses them of ceasefire violations. Those “violations” on the Lebanese side are largely civilians attempting to return to the parts of Lebanon that Israel continues to occupy militarily.The Israeli violations, which more heavily are related to shooting at pressand civilians, have been increasingly criticized, especially when combined with Israel’s talk of staying in Lebanon past the 60-day deadline.Lebanon has also complained that Israel has been damaging farmland in the south during this latest offensive. Saplings provided by the World Food Programme and funded by the EU were destroyed during Israel’s recent raid on Wadi al-Hujeir. After Israel invaded the town, bulldozers were brought in to level the agriculture project. Lebanon’s Agriculture Ministry noted this was a violation of their sovereignty, but it appears to just be one of many in the ongoing offensive.

Israeli Troops Advance Deeper Into Southern Lebanon, Escalate Demolitions - - Israel’s military continued its invasion of southern Lebanon today, despite the 60-day ceasefire in place during which it’s meant to vacate the country. The village of Beit Lif was the latest target, with Israeli Merkava tanks and military bulldozers arriving at the outskirts of town and shelling the area. Israeli troops armed with machine guns also invaded the neighboring towns of Yater and Ramieh.These towns and villages aren’t far from the Israeli border but were not occupied at the time of the ceasefire. Israel has taken multiple villages in different parts of southern Lebanon since the ceasefire began and has withdrawn from only a handful.The ceasefire was meant to see Israel leave the occupied towns and Lebanese forces to replace them. Lebanese troops are showing up in towns like Shamaa and al-Bayda, however, and are reporting that Israelhas razed multiple neighborhoods to the ground.There have been persistent reports of Israeli bulldozers leveling civilianhomes across southern Lebanon, but it is only with the arrival of Lebanese forces in those areas that we see what is actually left there. Bulldozing homes for weeks after the ceasefire, the reality is that there isn’t much left.While it can’t be definitely stated that the newly invaded towns and villages are going to face the same demolition, the bulldozers are present, and Israel has been stepping up the bulldozing of homes and infrastructure wherever it goes.Israel has made a point of warning civilians against trying to return to their homes all across a band of southern Lebanon, and these newly invaded towns are inside that zone. Many Lebanese have been displaced throughout the war, and many are trying to return home after almost 40 days of “ceasefire,” despite the warnings against doing so. Israeli activist are stepping up calls to just expand Israel into southern Lebanon outright and set up settlements over the ruins of the former villages that the bulldozers are in the process of destroying. They claim an “historical” Israeli right to southern Lebanon and insist that only Israeli settlements would lead to security in the region.

Hezbollah ‘Patient,’ But Threatens Retaliation If Israel Troops Remain Past Deadline - Now 35 days into a 60-day ceasefire, Israeli troops remain inside Lebanese territory and are increasingly open about staying indefinitely. Given the several hundred Israeli ceasefire violations and scores of Lebanese casualties, however, the real story may be Hezbollah’s lack of response. Hezbollah has not aggressively retaliated to any Israeli attacks on either Hezbollah itself or on Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qamati says the group is being “patient,” but that on day 61 of the 60-day ceasefire, any Israeli troops still inside Lebanon will be considered to be “occupation forces.” This seems particularly important because day 61 is fast approaching, and despite Israeli claims of victory, Hezbollah insists the organization remains operationally intact. While in many ways the war never really ended in southern Lebanon, full-bore fighting could quickly return. Israel’s avowed intention to remain in Lebanon through the ceasefireclearly indicates Tel Aviv has its eye on returning to fighting, above and beyond the hundreds of violations it’s already committed. Israeli military officials are emphasizing their continued military control of strategic areas in southern Lebanon, which they believe will give them the advantage if and when all-out fighting resumes.Israel further issued a new statement today announcing a line across southern Lebanon beyond which civilians still cannot return home, “until further notice.” This includes much of the territory Israel occupied during the war, but so far does not include all the towns Israeli forces have invaded and occupied since the ceasefire began, which are deeper into Lebanese territory.The effort to keep civilians from returning home appears two-fold. It both allows Israel to claim “violations” by Lebanon because many civilians don’t have a choice and are desperately trying to return home, and also because Israel has been carrying out mass demolitions of homes in the towns and villages closest to the border. By the time Israel lifts the ban on civilians returning home, their homes probably won’t exist.

Israel Launches Major Airstrikes Against North Syria - Syria’s new government may view peace with Israel as a top priority, but Israel seems to be heading in a different direction, as they airstrikes continue to escalate against sites across Syria, and Israeli ground forces are taking more and more strategic locations in southern Syria.Locals reported huge explosions in the northern Syrian city of al-Safira, just east of Aleppo. There were at least seven airstrikes reported against different targets in the city, mostly targeting defense industry factories, but also some hitting research centers in the area.The attacks were carried out overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Locals said the explosions were so huge they “turned night into day.” There are still no official figures on the casualties from any of these latest attacks.This is a continuation of the Israeli attacks on Syria’s military infrastructure, strikes which have escalated since the recent regime change. Israel may have backed that regime change, but it’s not stopping them from attacking Syria every chance they get.On Wednesday, Israel also carried out an attack on the Tal al-Shahem military camp. The camp is near Damascus and overlooks the southern Quneitra Province. Since Israel is in the process of occupying more and more of that province, the camp apparently was perceived as a potential obstacle to their ground operations.Israel used the regime change as a pretext to seize substantial land in the demilitarized zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria. Since then they’ve moved deeper into Syria, and Wednesdaythey reached the al-Mantara Dam in Quneitra Province.The dam is the largest in southern Syria, and gives them effective control over the six major sources of fresh water in southern Syria. They have also recently taken the al-Wahda Dam along the Yarmouk River Basin.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Meets With HTS Leaders in Damascus - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha was in Damascus on Mondayand met with Syria’s de facto leader and other senior members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the al-Qaeda offshoot that led the offensive to oust former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.Ukrainian intelligence supported the HTS offensive against Assad by providing drones and drone operators weeks before it was launched. Assad was allied with Moscow and recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics in eastern Ukraine in 2022, which led to Kyiv ending diplomatic relations with Damascus.Sybiha said Ukraine was ready to restore relations with the new HTS-led Syrian government and expressed hope that “mutual recognition of territorial integrity and sovereignty will pave the way for the restoration of diplomatic relations, political dialogue, and the work of diplomatic institutions.”Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, the foreign minister for the HTS-led “transitional” government, said he hoped for “strategic partnerships” with Ukraine. “Certainly, the Syrian people and the Ukrainian people have the same experience and the same suffering that we endured over 14 years,” he said.In a post on X, Sybhia said he delivered a message from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Syria’s de facto leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who has been going by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, since taking over the country.Sybhia said he “personally conveyed the message of Ukraine’s President
[Zelensky] to the Syrian people: we are with you and ready to assist in restoring normal life, stability, and food security.” Julani previously led the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, known as the al-Nusra Front, which he merged with other Islamist factions in 2017 to form HTS. The US still considers HTS a “foreign terrorist organization” but celebrated the group’s takeover of Damascus and removed a $10 million bounty on Julani’s head.

Tensions with Russia rise amid power line sabotage - Russia’s connection to the rupture of an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia is raising a new bevy of fears over the sabotage of critical power lines. The new incidents come as tensions between the West and Russia and China have risen over the war in Ukraine, and as the world braces for a shift in U.S. leadership as President-elect Trump prepares to take office. The Estlink-2 power cable between Finland and Estonia was allegedly cut on Christmas by a Cook Island-flagged ship called Eagle S. Western officials claim the ship is part of a vast Russian shadow fleet working to circumvent western sanctions. The incident adds to a larger problem related to the security of undersea infrastructure, as China has also been accused of three incidents since 2023 that have disrupted power lines in European waters. Dozens of cables are ruptured each year, usually accidentally, and it’s unclear if the latest events were intentional. Still, European leaders are sounding the alarm. “Recent Baltic Sea sabotage attempts are not isolated incidents; they form a deliberate pattern aimed at damaging our digital and energy infrastructure,” said European Union foreign policy head Kaja Kallas in an interview with German newspaper Welt. Tensions between the Russia have been simmering for years over the Ukraine war. Russia is also suspected by Azerbaijan’s leaders of shooting down an airliner on Christmas Day, killing 38 people.Finland is investigating the Estlink-2 incident, which caused minimal disruption, but it said this week that an anchor suspected to be from the Eagle S was dragged up to 62 miles under the water. The Eagle S was seized by Finnish police last week.. The case is similar to a November incident, in which the Chinese carrier ship Yi Peng 3 is accused of dragging an anchor to cut cables linking Sweden and Lithuania and another connecting Germany and Finland. In November 2023, a Hong Kong ship was responsible for rupturing a critical gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland. They are not the first such attacks, following the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Reports suggest Ukraine was likely behind the attack on Nord Stream, which carries gas from Russia to Germany.