largest oil price drop in 27 months; oil supplies at 11 year June low; gasoline demand at 41 mo high, imports at 56 week high

largest weekly oil price decline since March 18 2023; US commercial crude oil inventories​ at the lowest level for June since 2014;  highest refinery utilization rate since July 5th of 2024; gasoline production at a 32 week high; gasoline demand at a 41 month high; gasoline imports at a 56 week high; distillates exports at a 44 week high; oil rig count is lowest since October 2021

oil prices fell for the first time in four weeks after Trump announced, and then imposed, a cease-fire on Israel and Iran …after the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for July delivery rose 2.7% to $74.93 a barrel before expiration last week, as markets continued to react to an ongoing exchange of air attacks between Israel and Iran and their potential for further destabilization in the Mideast and related action by the US, the contract price for the benchmark crude for August delivery, which began trading as the cited front month this week, rallied over 4.6% early Monday after Trump said on Sunday that he had attacked three of Iran’s nuclear sites, but retreated just as quickly after Iran responded by attacking a US base in Qatar, sparing oil infrastructure, and settled $5.53 or more than 7% lower at $68.51 a barrel after Iran took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which the markets had feared….oil prices continued to fall that evening ​in off-market trading, after Trump announced that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a complete ceasefire, adding that Iran would begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. even as his announcement seemed to catch both Israel and Iran, as well as Trump’s own top administration officials, by surprise….but oil prices plunged in overseas trading early Tuesday, after Israel accepted Trump's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire with Iran. and continued to sell off during US trading on the announcement of ​t​he ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday evening, and settled $4.14 or 6% lower at $64.37 a barrel on expectations the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East….oil prices ​finally inched higher in Asian trading on Wednesday as ongoing Israel-Iran tensions raised supply concerns and US inventory data pointed to strong demand, then edged higher during US trading after the EIA reported across the board draws from US crude and fuel inventories, and settled 55 cents higher at $64.92 a barrel as the data showed relatively strong domestic demand, ​w​hile traders questioned the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel… oil prices inched higher in Asian trading again on Thursday, as the larger-than-expected draw in US crude stocks signaled firm demand, while traders remained cautious about the geopolitical developments in the Middle East, then continued rising Thursday morning in New York, supported by the weekly ​EIA inventory report showing commercial crude oil inventories falling for a fifth straight week to an 11-year seasonal low, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a 3-year low, and settled 32 cents higher at $65.24 a barrel as traders remained cautious over the Iran-Israel ceasefire and focused on fundamentals after the EIA reported the big draws in inventories….oil traded still higher in Asia on Friday morning, as ​traders paid more attention to economic and supply-related issues like US trade tariffs and OPEC’s July meeting than geopolitical issues like tensions between Iran-Israel, then turned south in New York trading after Russian President Putin said the OPEC+ group projected rising global demand,  especially during the summer months, suggesting the bloc would continue with large output hikes, but recovered from that midday drop to settle 28 cents higher at $65.52 a barrel, supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, but still finished 12.6% lower for the week, th​e largest decline since March 2023​​​​​​, while the August contract for the benchmark US crude, which had ended the prior week priced at $73.84 a barrel, settled the week 11.3% lower…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower a second time in three weeks on forecasts for the heatwave to break soon​, and ​on a larger than expected injection of gas into storage…after rising 7.4% to $3.847 per mmBTU last week on an outbreak of hot weather across the densely populated north eastern quarter of the country and a smaller than expected injection of natural gas into storage, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for July delivery opened 3.2 cents lower on Monday and traded lower throughout the day as traders looked past the current heat wave and monitored the escalating situation in the Middle East, and settled down 14.9 cents or about 4% at $3.698 per mmBTU on rising output and forecasts for the heat wave blanketing the eastern half of the country to end in a few days….July natural gas opened 3.7 cents lower and continued to slide on Tuesday, as traders focused on the impending cool down despite rising geopolitical tensions and the current heat wave, and ​gas prices settled 16.1 cents lower at $3.537 per mmBTU on strong production and weak forecasts, despite blazing heat and ongoing Middle East tensions, as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was on shaky ground…natural gas prices again opened 3.7 cents lower and continued to retreat on bearish weather forecasts on Wednesday, as breaking heat and rising inventories kept prices on a downward trajectory…natural gas prices opene​ was notably above expectations, and tumbled 14.5 cents to a final settlement at $3.261 per mmBTU as the big injection deepened the decline as temperatures moderated, while the more actively traded benchmark natural gas contract for August delivery settled cents lower at $3.526 per mmBTU….with market​s​ now citing the price of natural gas contract for August delivery, prices reversed in early trading Friday after a week of heavy losses, and rallied throughout the day to settle 21.3 cents higher at $3.739 per mmBTU as traders hunted for bargains even as fundamenta​l support dwindled...natural gas prices thus cut their loss to 2.8% for the week, while the August gas contract, which had closed the prior week at $3.949 per mmBTU, finished 5.3% lower...

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending June 20th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 96 billion cubic feet to 2,898 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 196 billion cubic feet, or 6.3% below the 3,094 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on June 20th of last year, but 179 billion cubic feet, or 6.6% more than the five-year average of 2,719 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 20th of June over the most recent five years….the 96 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited​ week was somewhat more than the 86 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, and was significantly more than the 59 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as more than the average 79 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same mid June week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 20th indicated that even after a sizable increase in oil imports, we again had to withdraw oil from our stored crude supplies for the ninth time in twenty-one weeks, and for the 30th time in fifty-one weeks, even after an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for…Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 439,000 barrels per day to average 5,504,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 672,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 91,000 barrels per day to average 4,270,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,674,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending June 20th, an average of 530,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 626,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 13,435,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,735,000 barrels per day during the June 20th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,987,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 20th, an average of 125,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 800,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from storage, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending June 20th averaged a rounded 4​5​3,000 barrels per day less than what what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +4​5​3,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 800,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 834,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 34,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventy-seventh SPR increase in the past eighty-seven weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,992,000 barrels per day last week, which was 17.4% less than the 7,257,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 4,000 barrels per day higher at 13,435,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 10,000 barrels per day higher at 13,010,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 6,000 barrels per day lower at 425,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.6% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also up 38.5% from the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 94.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,987,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 20th, up from their 93.2% utilization rate of a week earlier, and the highest utilization rate since July 5th of last year…. the 16,987,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 2.8% more than the 16,532,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending June 21st of 2024, but were 2.0% less than the 17,337,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending June 21st, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.2%, close to normal for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was a bit higher, increasing by 8,000 barrels per day to a 32 week high of 10,142,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 20th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 386,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 2.3% more than the 9,881,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending June 21st of last year, but 3.8% less than the gasoline production of 10,512,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending June 21st, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 185,000 barrels per day to 4,789,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 77,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that production decrease, our distillates output was 2.3% less than the 4,902,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending June 21st of 2024, and 9.7% less than the 5,305,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending June 21st, 2019…

With this week’s insignificant increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the eleventh time in seventeen weeks, decreasing by 2,075,000 barrels to 227,938,000 barrels during the week ending June 20th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 209,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 389,000 barrels per day to a 41 month high of 9,688,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of gasoline fell by 38,000 barrels per day to 763,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 47,000 barrels per day to a 56 week high of 1,007,000 barrels per day ….But after fourteen gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past nineteen weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.5% lower than last June 21st’s gasoline inventories of 233,886,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the big decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 15th time in 23 weeks, decreasing by 4,066,000 barrels to 105,332,000 barrels during the week ending June 20th, the largest drop in 20 weeks, after our distillates supplies had increased by 514,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 48,000 to 3,794,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 341,000 barrels per day to a 44 week high of 1,649,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 80,000 barrels per day to 73,000 barrels per day...After 44 inventory withdrawals over the past 74 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 13.1% below the 121,263,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on June 21st of 2024, and are now about 20% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even with big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 31st time over the past year, decreasing by 5,836,000 barrels over the week, from 420,942,000 barrels on June 13th to 415,106,000 barrels on June 20th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 11,473,000 barrels, the most since June 28th, 2024, over the prior week… After th​ose big decreases, our commercial crude oil inventories​ were at the lowest level for any June since 2014, and 11% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still 17.3% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of June over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this June 20th were 9.9% below the 460,696,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on June 21st of 2024, and 8.5% less than the 453,690,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on June 23rd of 2023, and were 0.8% less than the 418,328,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on June 17th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count decreased by seven during the week ending June 27th, the thirteenth decrease in fifteen weeks, as six rigs targeting oil and two rigs targeting natural gas were removed, while one miscellaneous rig was added...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of June 27th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (June 20th) and this week’s (June 27th) count, the third column shows last week’s June 20th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 21st of June, 2024…

the 432 oil directed rigs that were drilling this week was the lowest oil rig count since October 2021 

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Fracking Ohio state parks should not fund tax cuts for the rich - by Cathy Cowan Becker, Save Ohio Parks -- During the lame duck session of 2022, the Ohio legislature passed HB 507, a bill ostensibly about the sale of baby chicks, but loaded up with last-minute oil and gas amendments — including one that required fracking of Ohio state parks and public lands. Since then, the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has sold out our ne public land after another for fracking — including thousands of acres of Ohio’s iconic Salt Fork State Park. Frack well pads are now beginning to surround the park. Fracking has begun at Valley Run Wildlife Area, and slated to begin soon at Zepernick, Egypt Valley, Keen, Leesville, and Jockey Hollow wildlife areas. Shortly after Gov. Mike DeWine signed HB 507, then-Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman told the Ohio Oil and Gas Association that fracking our public lands is a “great revenue generator” for tax cuts. “We’re talking about a flat tax right now, perhaps eliminating it,” Huffman said. “Well, where’s that revenue going to come from?” This week, a Conference Committee comprised of leaders from the House and Senate finance committees met at 10:30 p.m. — with only 19 minutes notice — to amend and pass HB 96, Ohio’s two-year operating budget bill. It contains a bevy of favors for the oil and gas industry — including fracking our state parks to fund tax cuts for the rich. During the final days of testimony in the months-long budget bill process, the Ohio Senate amended HB 96 to include a flat tax — cutting taxes for Ohioans making over $100,000 per year from 3.5% to 2.75% — then cutting agency budget lines to make up the difference. Among items on the chopping block is Fund 730321, the Parks and Recreation budget for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. This is money used to staff and maintain our state parks and wildlife areas. The Senate budget cut this fund in half for 2026 — from $55 million to $27.5 million. Where did the Senate tell ODNR to make up the difference? From Fund 5BJ1 ALI 7256A6, the State Park Land Royalties Fund — or money that ODNR gets from fracking. Until now, fracking royalties have been used only for special projects that improve state parks. Now the money will be used for half the parks’ operating expenses — making ODNR even more dependent on fracking for basic revenue, and making the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission even more likely to approve fracking operations. This is folly. The oil and gas industry is notoriously boom and bust. Fracking revenue is not guaranteed, and production at frack wells often drops steeply within a few years. In addition, wells can be shut down on short notice. Accidents happen — public records show that an oil and gas incident in Ohio every 1.5 days. In addition, ODNR recently shut down a frack pad in Noble County because of increased earthquakes caused by high-pressurized fracking.Further, fracking puts at risk an industry near our parks that reliably produces income: tourism. Who wants to compete with thousands of brine trucks on rural roads to visit a park surrounded by the noise, light, and pollution of the fracking industry? Finally ,contrary to statements by state Sen. Jerry Cirino, the people of Ohio who own and use our public lands do not want to see these lands fracked. Public comments on nominations to frack public land routinely run 98% opposed. Making our parks dependent on fracking isn’t the only favor to the oil and gas industry in the hastily approved state budget. Other fossil fuel goodies include:

• Lengthening fracking leases on public lands for up to 10 years, instead of the current three years.
• Requiring ODNR to fast-track fracking leases in 30 days, rushing a process that is supposed to include multiple provisions to protect our public lands.
• Prohibiting state agencies from requiring any additional fees beyond those specified in the lease, which could prevent fines for pollution or cleanup after an accident.
• Allowing fracked gas projects, now defined by our legislature as “green energy,” to receive air quality revenue bonds, despite their methane pollution.
• Cutting the Oil and Gas Well Fund responsible for plugging orphan wells by eliminating filing fees.

HB 96 now goes to Gov. DeWine, who has until June 30 to sign it. Unlike for most bills, the governor has line-item veto power for anything budget related. In past budget years, DeWine has not hesitated to use his veto power. Will DeWine, who professes publicly to love our state parks, veto the items that will degrade and destroy them? Or will he blithely stand behind the supermajority legislature that favors fossil fuels over renewable energy like wind, solar, and geothermal? One thing is clear: The people of Ohio own and use our state parks, wildlife areas, and public lands – and we do not want them to be fracked just to provide tax cuts for the rich.

Enbridge ordered to lower natural gas distribution rates - WFMJ.com - Natural gas users in most of the Mahoning Valley could see a portion of their monthly bills reduced after the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio issued an order that will lower the base distribution rates for Enbridge Gas Ohio, formerly known as Dominion Energy Ohio. The decision will decrease Enbridge Gas Ohio's annual revenues by approximately $26.3 million, with a set rate of return of 6.60%. "Today’s order strikes the appropriate balance in setting rates to assure all customers have access to reliable, safe and affordable natural gas service, while paving the way for continued investments in the utility’s system,” PUCO Chair Jenifer French said in a news release. Enbridge Gas Ohio is permitted to continue its pipeline infrastructure replacement program and capital expenditure program through 2028. Costs associated with these programs will remain subject to PUCO review, approval, and audit. The commission has directed Enbridge Gas Ohio to file updated tariffs to implement the new rates as soon as possible and to inform customers within 30 days of the order. Average customer bill impacts were not immediately available from the PUCO. Thursday's order does not affect the price of the natural gas commodity itself. Enbridge Gas Ohio initially sought an increase of approximately $211 million in annual revenues when it filed its application on Oct. 31, 2023. PUCO staff filed a report analyzing the utility's application and offering recommendations on June 24, 2024. Public hearings were held in September to gather customer testimony. An evidentiary hearing took place at the PUCO offices from Jan. 13, 2025, to Feb. 18, 2025. A copy of the commission's order and a concurring opinion are available on the PUCO website.

Enbridge Gas to 'consider legal options' after PUCO orders drop in Ohio base rates – WKYC - There's some relief coming to the pocketbooks of Enbridge GasOhio customers: the state's public utilities commission on Thursday ordered the company to lower its base distribution rates. After a regulatory review process that begin in 2023, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio decided Enbridge — formerly known as Dominion Energy — must lower rates such that its annual revenues drop by about $26.3 million. PUCO's order set a 6.6% rate of return for the energy supplier.“Today’s order strikes the appropriate balance in setting rates to assure all customers have access to reliable, safe and affordable natural gas service, while paving the way for continued investments in the utility’s system,” said PUCO Chair Jenifer French. PUCO authorized Enbridge to continue work on a project to replace aging pipelines as well as a program to recover costs of "incremental capital investments" until the end of 2028. The utilities commission will review, approve and audit any costs under the two programs.The PUCO order does not affect the price of natural gas itself, which is set by the market. The ruling only applies to Enbridge's base distribution rates — the portion of the bill that covers the cost of delivering gas.In a statement, Enbridge said it is reviewing PUCO's decision, adding that the company is "concerned" about the impact to its business and future energy investments in Ohio. “Over $30 million of the Order’s revenue reduction effectively penalizes Enbridge Gas Ohio for maintaining a well-managed pension fund on behalf of its retirees," the company said. "We are considering our legal options while we work diligently on behalf of our customers to ensure that today’s Order does not compromise our ability to continue providing the affordable and reliable service that they expect."Enbridge applied for a base rate increase in October 2023, seeking to increase annual revenues by about $211 million, PUCO said. An investigation report on the request was filed in June 2024, and months later PUCO held public hearings in Akron, Cleveland and Lima to hear from Enbridge customers. An evidentiary hearing wrapped up in February. "Enbridge Gas Ohio customers already benefit from some of the lowest natural gas rates in the state," the company claims. "Maintaining and investing in our system ensures affordable natural gas is delivered safely and reliably."

Infinity Eyeing 'Lower Level' Utica M&A in the Short Term | Hart Energy (video interview with transcript) Newly public Infinity Natural Resources says it is focusing its attention on “lower level” M&A in Ohio’s Utica Shale, at least for now. Rumors have been swirling of an upcoming change of control for Utica operators, includingAscent Resources telling investors in March that it is considering an IPO. A number of publics, including Gulfport Energy, EOG Resources and Expand Energy, have been the subject of M&A chatter in recent months.While waiting for large-scale M&A to take shape in Appalachia, CEO Zack Arnold said the company is looking to gain some scale.And, Infinity continues to hold out on commodity price swings with drill-ready projects to allow for real-time decisions on where Infinity plans to deploy its capital. Arnold shares his company’s strategic approach in the Utica with Hart Energy’s Nissa Darbonne in this exclusive interview at the 2025 SUPER DUG Conference and Expo.

infinity Natural Resources on the Hunt for More Ohio Utica Assets Infinity Natural Resources (INR), headquartered in Morgantown, WV, focuses 100% on the Marcellus/Utica. The company went public earlier this year with a $265 million ($20/share) initial public offering, giving INR a $1.18 billion market capitalization (see INR IPO Does Better than Expected, Stock Trading Pops 10% Higher). Hart Energy’s Nissa Darbonne recently interviewed INR CEO Zack Arnold at the 2025 SUPER DUG Conference and Expo. He had some VERY interesting things to say about both the Ohio Utica and the Pennsylvania Marcellus.

24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jun 16 – 22 -Marcellus Drilling News- For the week of June 16 – 22, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica rose from the previous week. There were 24 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week, up six from 18 issued two weeks ago. The Keystone State (PA) issued 16 new permits. Olympus Energy received the most new permits, six, all of them in Westmoreland County (across two pads). Seneca Resources received five permits for one pad in Tioga County. Range Resources scored three permits for a single pad in Washington County. CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY

Largest Fuel Cell Backup Program in U.S. Rolling Out in WV Marcellus -Marcellus Drilling News - A fuel cell manufacturer located in Westmoreland County, PA — WATT Fuel Cell — manufactures Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (“SOFC”) stacks and systems that operate on common, readily available fuels such as natural gas and propane. Instead of burning and combusting natural gas (or propane), those fuel sources are subjected to an electrochemical process that produces electricity. In July 2023, the company announced it would distribute 500 of its units to customers of Hope Gas, a West Virginia-based natural gas utility (see NatGas-Powered WATT Fuel Cells Provided to 500 West Virginia Homes). The WATT HOME system is an advanced solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology that operates efficiently on readily available natural gas. Hope Gas announced last October another 5,300 WATT units will be distributed to its customers as part of the hydrogen hub award given to West Virginia and its partners (see Hope Gas to Use ARCH2 $$ to Distro 5,300 Hydrogen Fuel Cells in WV). It’s time to roll out the program to Hope Gas customers. The number has increased to 7,250! It is the largest residential fuel cell initiative in the entire country. And it’s happening in the WV Marcellus.

Trump Admin Sends Mixed Signals on Ethane Exports to China -Marcellus Drilling News- MDN recently brought you the news that the Trump U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) was blocking at least three (possibly more) cargoes of ethane by rejecting permits to export to Enterprise Products Partners (see U.S. Denies Permit for Enterprise to Export Ethane Cargoes to China). Ethane is a raw feedstock used to create plastics. Denying China access to our ethane will hurt the Chinese economy. We later reported that the export ban to China was just a bargaining position and had been lifted (see Trump Trade Deal Lifts Ethane Export Ban to China; Cargo to India). However, in another twist to this saga, the Trump administration has informed Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer (the two companies exporting ethane to China) that they can load the ethane and ship it. However, before unloading, they will still need U.S. government permission. Huh?

FERC removes regulatory barriers to gas pipeline construction - Federal regulators issued a handful of gas-related orders Thursday that clear the path for new pipeline and energy infrastructure in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast. The decisions from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission come as the agency has taken steps to remove barriers to building gas pipelines, including granting a one-year waiver to a FERC rule that precludes construction activities while the agency considers rehearing requests.FERC Chair Mark Christie, a Republican, said the commission opted to waive Order 871 for a year because it’d become “a tool to get automatic stay on a project during rehearing process.”“It had become a barrier to proceeding with construction,” Christie said, noting it doesn’t end the rehearing process and adding it had become “misused.”

Family Affair - Kinder Morgan Pipeline Projects to Boost Deep South’s Access to Appalachian Gas --For several years now, the biggest hurdle to natural gas production growth in the Marcellus/Utica was takeaway constraints — there simply wasn’t enough capacity on gas pipelines out of Appalachia to support a significant bump-up in regional output. Things have been changing though. The Mountain Valley Pipeline and a slew of expansion projects along Transco are allowing increasing volumes of gas to move to and through Virginia and the Carolinas. The proposed Borealis Pipeline across Ohio would enable up to 2 Bcf/d to move down the Texas Gas Transmission system to the Gulf Coast. And, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, Kinder Morgan is planning several major projects in the Deep South — including the 2.1-Bcf/d Mississippi Crossing and 1.3-Bcf/d South System Expansion 4 projects — to move more gas into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. […] So, what exactly is Kinder Morgan planning? First up is MSX (dashed green line in Figure 2 below), an approximately 200-mile, 2.1-Bcf/d greenfield pipeline that will run southeast from an interconnection with the TGP system’s 100 Line (dark-blue line to far left) in Washington County, MS, to a link with the SONAT system’s south mainline (yellow-and-red line) in Clarke County, MS. The project will also connect to Transco at its Station 85 pool in Choctaw County, AL. The new, $1.7 billion MSX pipeline will cross and interconnect with TGP’s 800 and 500 lines (other dark-blue lines) along the way. The first 177 miles of MSX will have 42-inch-diameter pipe and the last 22 miles will have 36-inch pipe; a seven-mile lateral is also planned near MSX’s interconnection with Line 800, with four other laterals planned to interconnect with third-party pipeline systems.Kinder Morgan has said it expects to file for a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificate and other permits for the pipeline in Q2 2025, begin construction as early as Q1 2027, and bring MSX online in Q4 2028. Kinder has said the project will provide power-generation, industrial and commercial/residential (res/comm) gas users in the Southeast “access to abundant shale production across the eastern half of the U.S.” and “lower energy costs.” The SONAT system that MSX will tie into runs east across Alabama and Georgia, extending into the edges of both South Carolina and northern Florida.Speaking of SONAT, Kinder Morgan’s planned $3 billion SSE4 project will involve enhancements to segments of SONAT’s south mainline between TGP’s Line 500 in east-central Mississippi and Kinder’s bidirectional Elba Express pipeline, which runs from Transco to the Kinder-operated Elba Island LNG export terminal near Savannah, GA. The SSE4 project will consist almost entirely of “looping” — or installing parallel pipelines — along 291 miles of the south mainline (red line segments along SONAT in Figure 2 above) as well as new or upgraded compression stations. The looping will mainly consist of 42-inch, 36-inch and 30-inch pipelines. The project, in total, will increase the SONAT system’s capacity by 1.3 Bcf/d.Kinder Morgan has said it expects to file for a FERC certificate and other approvals in Q2 2025, begin construction of the looping and compression work in Q4 2026, and bring the improvements online in two phases: Phase 1 in Q4 2028, Phase 2 in Q4 2029. At least a couple other Kinder Morgan gas pipeline projects are worth noting here. One is Phase 2 of the company’s Evangeline Pass expansion project (not shown in maps), which will increase the capacity of the company’s TGP and SONAT systems from south-central Mississippi to Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG export terminal by another 1.1 Bcf/d when the project is finished in Q3 2025. (Phase 1, which was completed a year ago, added 900 MMcf/d of capacity.) Another is Kinder’s planned Elba Express Bridge project (also not shown), which would extend the company’s Elba Express pipeline (light-blue line in Figure 2) into South Carolina with a capacity of at least 325 MMcf/d and perhaps as much as 1 Bcf/d.The MSX, SSE4 and Elba Express Bridge projects are designed to give Kinder Morgan a sizable piece of what pretty much everyone expects will be rising demand for natural gas in the Southeast — especially in Georgia and South Carolina but also in Mississippi and Alabama. Utilities and electric cooperatives in the region are planning a long list of gas-fired generation projects there. For example, Georgia Power’s 2025 integrated resource plan (IRP) calls for the development of up to 9,000 megawatts (MW) of new gas-fired combined-cycle and peaking plants by 2031. Also in Georgia, Oglethorpe Power — a co-op group with 38 members — is building a 1,200-MW combined-cycle plant and a 240-MW “peaker.”In the other Deep South states, Alabama Power is adding another 727-MW combined-cycle plant at its Barry station that is slated to start up later this year and Entergy Mississippi is building two 754-MW combined-cycle plants, one to begin operating in 2028 and the other to follow in 2029. In South Carolina, Duke Energy is planning a 1,400-MW combined-cycle plant that will come online in 2031 and Dominion Energy South Carolina and Santee Cooper (a state-owned utility) are jointly developing new gas-fired generating capacity at the site of an old Dominion coal plant.

Lake Charles LNG Builds Development Momentum, Expands Supply Deal With Chevron - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has agreed to supply more LNG to Chevron Corp. from its proposed Lake Charles export project in Louisiana, expanding a deal signed in December 2024 to provide 2 million tons/year (Mt/y). ET will now supply the supermajor with 3 Mt/y of the super-chilled fuel for 20 years after signing an incremental sale and purchase agreement it announced on Wednesday. “This agreement marks a significant milestone in our growing partnership with Chevron and underscores the increasing global demand for reliable, long-term LNG supply,” said ET’s Tom Mason, president of affiliate Energy Transfer LNG Export LLC.

Chevron Expands Deal with ET’s Lake Charles LNG to Buy 3 MTPA -Marcellus Drilling News - Just as the pandemic began to unfold in early 2020, Shell pulled out of a 50/50 joint venture partnership with Energy Transfer (ET) to build a new LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana (see Shell Pulls Out of Lake Charles LNG Project, Energy Transfer Stays). Bad move on Shell’s part, if you ask us. Since that time, ET has continued to build support for the project. ET has still not made a final investment decision (FID) to commit billions of dollars, but each year that passes brings the company closer to an FID. In December, ET announced a new customer for its LNG when/if the plant gets built: Chevron. Yesterday, Chevron increased its commitment to the facility.

Commonwealth LNG Gets Final Green Light; Kimmeridge Sets Third Quarter FID -- Commonwealth LNG is cleared to finish commercialization and head toward a targeted final investment decision (FID) later this year after receiving its last major federal authorization. Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. LLC, developer of the Louisiana-based LNG export project, disclosed it has received a final order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Agency. “This milestone further paves the way for development of a state-of-the-art LNG export facility that strengthens energy security domestically and for our allies, all while prioritizing environmental stewardship and providing sustained economic benefit for local communities,” Kimmeridge Managing Partner Ben Dell said.

Contractors Agree to Finish Remaining Golden Pass Liquefaction Trains — - Engineering contractors Chiyoda International Corp. and McDermott LLC have reached an agreement with Golden Pass LNG in Texas to complete the entire project. Chiyoda said the companies signed a binding term sheet to finish trains two and three at the 18 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility, covering the full scope and commercial terms for work on the project to be finished once the contract is amended. The deal marks an important milestone for Golden Pass, where work was significantly delayed in 2024 when the lead contractor in charge of staffing construction, Zachry Group, filed for bankruptcy. Thousands of workers were laid off before Chiyoda and McDermott could resume work.

Cheniere Reaches FID on Another Expansion Project, Aiming to Boost Overall LNG Output to 75 Mt/y -- Cheniere Energy Inc. said Tuesday it would move ahead with another expansion project at its Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) export terminal in South Texas that would add two more trains and ultimately boost output at the facility to more than 30 million tons/year (Mt/y). CCL Midscale Trains 8 and 9 and other debottlenecking infrastructure to improve output at the facility would add more than 3 Mt/y. Cheniere issued the contractor, Bechtel Energy Inc., a notice to fully proceed with construction. The company is already building the CCL Stage 3 expansion project, which includes seven midscale trains with a capacity of 10 Mt/y. Two units are producing LNG, and another two are expected to be online by the end of the year.

Freeport LNG Requests Additional Time for Train 4 Expansion Project - Freeport LNG Development LP is seeking more time to commercialize and build a fourth train at its Texas export facility, potentially shifting first production into the next decade. The Houston-based company in 2019 was authorized by FERC to build the 5 million ton/year (Mt/y) Train 4 project. Since then, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has extended Freeport’s deadline twice, with the latest deadline for the commencement of operations set for the beginning of August 2028. Freeport is now requesting an additional 40-month extension, citing delays and obstacles to signing contracts because of continued work bringing the facility back to peak operations after an explosion in 2022.

Freeport LNG Asks for Third Time Extension to Build Train 4 - Marcellus Drilling News -- Freeport LNG, located near Galveston, Texas, currently exports roughly 15 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from three trains—when it’s actually up and running. The Freeport facility has been plagued with outages, the most spectacular of which happened in June 2022, taking the facility offline for 10 months (see Freeport LNG Plant Back to Full Capacity Using 2.1 Bcf/d of NatGas). Freeport has (for years) planned to add a fourth train that would bump up the output to 20 MTPA. In October 2022, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted Freeport an extra two years to build its fourth liquefaction train, until August 1, 2028. Freeport is now asking FERC for yet another time extension (the third extension)—an extra 40 months.

Summer Heat Forecast Collides With LNG Demand, Raising Natural Gas Prices — The Offtake A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• $3.50/Mcf: U.S. weather patterns are pointing to another hot summer that will create more competition for natural gas supply as LNG exports continue to ramp up, according to Morningstar DBRS. Researchers with the credit rating agency adjusted full-year forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to account for a higher upside for natural gas prices as temperature forecasts, which appear ready to rival 2024’s record heat. Morningstar forecast New York Mercantile Exchange prices to average $3.50/Mcf in 2025 and 2026.
• $4.77 billion: The estimated cost of a Train 4 expansion at Rio Grande LNG has increased since an assessment was delivered last year, according to project developer NextDecade Corp. The company disclosed it has completed a price refresh with its main construction contractor Bechtel Corp. The full cost of the project could range between $6.6-6.8 billion, a $570-770 million increase. NextDecade’s share of the cost was estimated at $1.8-2 billion, around $100 million more than the last contract’s terms.
• 13%: Malaysia’s Petronas is continuing to expand the amount of U.S. LNG that will make up its global gas portfolio as it works to expand its market share. The state-owned company disclosed a 1 million ton/year (Mt/y) heads of agreement with Woodside Energy Group Ltd. for offtake from its Louisiana LNG project. The firm currently has 3.1 Mt/y in binding contracts for U.S. capacity and is reportedly in talks to increase that volume to 5.1 Mt/y by the end of the decade. If the latest contract is finalized, U.S. LNG would make up around 13% of Petronas’ portfolio.
• 2.8 Bcf/d: Venture Global LNG Inc. has withdrawn plans for a future standalone LNG terminal in Plaquemines Parish, LA amid shifting development priorities. The company informed FERC it did not plan to pursue the proposed Delta LNG project at this time. Delta LNG was designed with a 20 Mt/y nameplate capacity, equivalent to around 2.8 Bcf/d. In March, the company launched a Federal Energy Regulatory Agency pre-review process for a third expansion phase at Plaquemines LNG.

Trump Announces Gulf of America Oil Lease Sale Spanning Area Larger Than Entire United Kingdom --The Trump administration announced a Gulf of America oil and gas lease sale that would span roughly 80 million acres, an area that is larger than the United Kingdom.The behemoth lease sale, which will be the first offshore lease sale since President Donald Trump took office, is scheduled for December 2025 and will offer 15,000 blocks of federal waters across the entire gulf. Companies with winning bids will be subject to a reduced royalty rate, something that could potentially drive greater industry interest and participation in the sale, according to the Department of the Interior (DOI).It is the latest action the Trump administration has taken in pursuit of its aggressive energy dominance and "drill, baby, drill" agenda. The announcement also represents a U-turn from the Biden administration's approach to drilling, which involved shutting down oil production, canceling offshore lease sales, and hiking royalty fees for producers.And it comes days after Trump ordered his administration to quickly ramp up oil drilling. "To the Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!" he wrote in a post on Monday.Trump issued that directive after he ordered the bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers. A disruption to Iran's oil flow would have upward pressure on energy prices everywhere. Following the successful U.S. bombing operation, Iran threatened to conduct a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway where 20 percent of the global supply of petroleum is transported every dayContinued leasing and drilling in the Gulf of America could help disentangle the U.S. economy from foreign oil. The gulf already produces about 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, or 13 percent of thenation's total production, but contains an estimated 48 billion barrels of recoverable oil, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).The United States still imports about 7.5 million barrels of oil and petroleum per day, though it remains a net exporter."Energy independence is a cornerstone of U.S. economic strength, national security and global stability, boosting American energy dominance and reducing reliance on unstable foreign producers," the BOEM said in a statement. "By continuing to expand offshore capabilities, the United States ensures affordable energy for consumers, strengthens domestic industry and reinforces its role as an energy superpower." "Today’s announcement marks another step in a new path forward for safe and responsible U.S. offshore development after years of roadblocks that hampered energy investment in the Gulf of America," American Petroleum Institute's senior vice president of policy, economics, and regulatory affairs Dustin Meyer said in a statement Wednesday.

NTSB says company failed to shut down oil pipeline for nearly 13 hours after pressure dropped -- Roughly 1.1 million gallons of crude oil spilled from a pipeline into the Gulf of Mexico in November 2023 because operators failed to shut it down for nearly 13 hours after gauges first hinted at a problem, the National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday.The NTSB said the leak off the coast of Louisiana was the result of underwater landslides, caused by hazards such as hurricanes, that pipeline owner Third Coast failed to address even though the threats were well known in the industry.“In the years leading up to the accident, Third Coast missed several opportunities to evaluate how geohazards may threaten the integrity of their pipeline. Information widely available within the industry suggested that land movement related to hurricane activity was a threat to pipelines in the Gulf of America, including the MPOG 18-inch pipeline,” the NTSB said in its final report, using the new name assigned to the body of water by the Trump administration.Third Coast did not immediately respond to phone and email messages seeking comment about the report Thursday afternoon.Environmental groups raised alarm at the time about the leak and its impact on wildlife and the Gulf.The amount of oil spilled was far less than the 2010 BP oil disaster, when 134 million gallons were released in the weeks following an oil rig explosion, but it could have been much smaller if workers in the Third Coast control room had acted more quickly, the NTSB said.The pipeline operator first noticed pressure changes about 45 minutes after he started his shift at 6 p.m. on Nov. 15, 2023. The gauges showed that the volume of oil exiting the pipeline was less than the amount entering, with the output eventually dropping to zero around 12:30 a.m. the next morning.The controller said his supervisor recommended not shutting down the pipeline as the pressure dropped throughout the evening. Even after the flow went to zero, the controller and his colleagues decided not to shut it down because they believed the the data were the result of equipment issues.It was only after day shift workers started the next day and noticed the trend data and lack of output that Third Coast started to shut down the pipeline, around 6:30 a.m. It was fully shut down by 9 a.m., and the leak was reported to the Environmental Protection Agency less than an hour later. In a different incident in late April, federal authorities were forced to clean up tens of thousands of gallons of crude from another, smaller oil spill from a a decades-old well in southeast Louisiana.

DNR investigating petroleum spill into West Nishnabotna River - The Iowa Department of Natural Resources is investigating an oil spill that entered the West Nishnabotna River from a truck stop near Avoca. The spill follows a complaint of discharged petroleum at the same Eagles Landing Flying J Truckstop from this spring that the DNR was still investigating and working to help clean up when Tuesday’s spill was observed. Alison Manz, an environmental specialist senior with the DNR, said it’s unknown how much petroleum entered the river, though she believes the spill was caught “right at the very beginning” of the plume. Absorbent booms and other clean-up tools were placed immediately downstream in an effort to contain the petroleum from spreading and, as of Tuesday, no dead fish had been observed in the river. Several months ago, when the department investigated the previous complaint regarding petroleum contamination at the same site just north of Avoca off Interstate 80, the staff found a “bigger issue” when they realized petroleum was being discharged into a stormwater retention basin. Manz said the retention basin has been plugged and is “completely contained” but clean-up for the roadside ditch and culverts connected to the retention basin has been an ongoing process. “We don’t know how long that basin has been draining into the roadside ditch,” Manz said. Recent heavy rains impacted the clean-up process of the ditches and caused an unknown amount of petroleum to flow into the West Nishnabotna River. “I don’t know if we’re ever going to know what the quantity that went to the river is, because all the residual that’s in the soil and in the culverts … we’re never going to know quantity,” Manz said. She said the DNR has “no idea” how long the retention basin had been contaminated with petroleum discharges and draining into the ditch before the spring complaint brought it to the department’s attention.

The oil and gas industry has a water problem. EPA wants to help. - Oil and gas companies are running out of options for disposing of polluted water they generate every day, a problem for the Trump administration’s “energy dominance” agenda. EPA is offering the industry a hand by promoting reuse of that wastewater. The effort worries environmentalists, but it could draw crucial political allies in oil-producing states. The agency plans to update rules for what can be done with water that emerges from the ground during oil and gas extraction. The goal is to allow the chemical-laden, super-salty brine to be substantially cleaned and reused for power generation, water-guzzling data centers and irrigating rangeland. Reusing the water could address a major industry challenge and help ease crippling drought in parts of Texas and New Mexico, two of the nation’s most prolific oil-producing states. A growing body of research suggests that the water — which is three or more times saltier than seawater — can now be safely treated for certain applications, from industrial cooling to growing alfalfa and other non-food crops, proponents say. “The short answer is New Mexico is supportive,” said James Kenney, secretary of the state’s Environment Department. “We want to be EPA’s partner and thought leader on this.” But while treatment technologies for produced water have progressed, critics say they remain expensive and energy intensive. Environmentalists and some local officials also worry that EPA will not require testing for all potential pollutants lurking in the water, creating contamination risks. “EPA [has been] very upfront by saying that there’s a lack of data on the technology and its ability to effectively and reliably treat this fluid,” said Dan Mueller, a Texas-based water resources engineer who has worked with the Environmental Defense Fund. “That is a struggle, and I continue to make that advocacy point.” Drilling in the Permian Basin, the oil field that straddles Texas and New Mexico, can generate three or more times as much wastewater as oil. During hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, water deep underground mixes with naturally occurring salt, radioactive materials, heavy metals and, potentially, chemicals used to fracture shale. For years, companies have reinjected the dirty brine underground in designated locations. But that can provoke earthquakes and risks polluting water supplies. With state regulators now tightening rules around deep well injection, companies are increasingly trying to recycle, treat and reuse the water. The push comes as reservoirs in the Rio Grande Basin are around a quarter percent full, and New Mexico’s governor declared a drought emergency last month. If water supplies continue to dwindle, it could stifle clean energy and new industries such as data centers, experts say. Mueller and other skeptics want to see the oil industry do more to reduce its own water footprint before companies can treat and sell their wastewater for other uses. Others worry that the oil-friendly Trump administration and states won’t enact proper guardrails to ensure treated water is safe to reuse. “While I do think there are some beneficial reuses of these waters, our concern is they will be loosely regulated and appropriate oversight will not occur,” said Dana Ames, an environmental crimes investigator in Johnson County, Texas.

Choice of Well Tubing Plays a Key Role as Horizontal Laterals Extend Their Reach -Since its beginning in western Pennsylvania 166 years ago, the oil and gas industry has been on a relentless quest to unlock more hydrocarbons. And for years, the focus has been on drilling more productively, not just drilling more wells. The techniques that have evolved since the start of the Shale Revolution have led to rapid increases in the length of horizontal laterals, boosting initial production (IP) rates — a critical development but posing new challenges for drillers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss why longer laterals in horizontal wells aren’t the answer in every shale play, the advantages of the two types of tubing used in those wells, and how they can help boost productivity. […]Longer laterals provide increased exposure to hydrocarbon-rich formations, which improves resource recovery per well and boosts a well’s estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Further, longer laterals can improve drilling economics by reducing the number of wells needed to access large swaths of a formation, thereby reducing capital costs associated with drilling, drilling pads, pipelines and all the other associated surface equipment.But while the trend has favored longer laterals, those stretching for three miles or longer are not necessarily the norm. Of the major crude oil producing basins, among the shorter average lengths is the Eagle Ford, which, as shown in Figure 2 below, had an average lateral length (dark-green bar sections) of only 1.68 miles (8,858 feet) in 2024, although some extend much farther (light-green bar sections). […] The move to longer laterals has required E&Ps to make significant changes to the techniques and materials needed to drill that far. As an example, let’s look at well tubing. After the well has been drilled and hydraulically fractured — but before it starts producing — crews use either coiled tubing or rigid stick pipe to pump cleaning fluid into the well. While the bit drills out leftover plugs, the fluid flows back up through the space between the tubing and the casing (called the annulus), bringing bits of plugs, sand and debris to the surface, so the well is ready to start flowing smoothly. While this tubing isn’t transporting the oil or gas, it is essential for making sure the well is clean and ready for production. Let’s look next at the two basic approaches.Coiled tubing has been used in oil and gas drilling since the 1960s and utilizes a continuous, flexible steel pipe spooled on a reel for rapid deployment (see photo below), eliminating the need for joint connections. There is no hard-and-fast rule for how deep coiled tubing can go, but it’s common to reach depths of 17,000 to 22,000 feet, even more in certain instances. Then, steel casing is installed and cemented in place. After that, if the well is going to be a horizontal well, the drilling continues sideways, followed by the hydraulic fracturing. After fracking, coiled tubing could be used to clean out leftover sand or debris, pump acid to open up the rock even more, or place cement plugs if needed. It’s also great for running tools down the well to check what’s happening inside, or even to retrieve equipment that’s stuck. The coiled tubing is removed at this point and production tubing is installed as the well transitions to the final stages of completion and production.Coiled tubing is an extremely effective tool for preparing a horizontal lateral for production after it has been hydraulically fractured, works well in shorter horizontal situations such as the Permian (more on this below) and is beneficial for well cleanouts and acid stimulation. Because coiled tubing is continuous, fluids and chemicals can be pumped into the well without stopping. This keeps the process moving and reduces the risk of damaging or killing the well. Plus, it means you can do these jobs faster and with fewer workers, which saves time and money.Coiled tubing is generally less effective in longer wells due to its struggles with heavy debris and sand. Coiled tubing also wears out more quickly and typically requires replacement more frequently. Although coiled tubing is cheaper on a per-foot basis, total project costs can be higher due to the need for chemical additives and the increased risk of getting stuck. (Lubricants are used to prevent sticking, but coiled tubing can still get stuck when cleaning out sand or debris.)About 10,000 horizontal wells are expected to be drilled and completed this year in the U.S., according to Spears Research, which has been studying oilfield topics since 1965. Of those horizontal wells, about 75% will have a lateral of less than 11,000 feet (2.1 miles) and will likely use coiled tubing, while 25% will be longer and more likely to rely on stick pipe.In the oil and gas industry, “jointed tubing” is the official term but the more common phrase used is stick pipe (see photo below), which has been around for decades — even longer than coil tubing — but has gained popularity in recent years once the longer laterals noted above became more common. Stick pipe consists of segmented pipes screwed together during deployment. It’s rigid, which means it is ideal for extended-reach laterals where wellbore stability and precise positioning are crucial. When the stick pipe is deployed into horizontal laterals, a power swivel rotates the jointed tubing string as each segment is threaded together. Stick pipe is rotated as it’s installed and does a great job at cleaning the wellbore but is a slower process because each section must be connected or disconnected manually, although optimization strategies such as pre-job planning and real-time data analytics are speeding up the process.A big advantage is that with stick pipe you can keep turning the pipe as you work. The spinning action can break up debris, which is helpful, but circulation stops when sections are connected. (As noted above, coiled tubing offers continuous pumping.) The cost of using stick pipe is generally lower than that of coiled tubing for similar operations because you don’t need any of the specialized equipment necessary for coiled tubing. But stick pipe requires more labor because each joint needs to be assembled and disassembled at the surface, which can slow operations and increase labor costs. And as with coiled tubing, stick pipe is eventually removed as the well moves closer to production.Deciding which tubing to use really depends on the individual well location. Coiled tubing shines when speed and maintaining well pressure are top priorities, such as in the Haynesville Shale. It’s also excellent for tasks like removing icy plugs that can prevent the well from producing smoothly in deep offshore wells, and it can snake through horizontal wells where rigid tubing would struggle. Coiled tubing also dominates in the Permian because the wells are the right depth and length — typically around 10,000 feet (1.9 miles) deep and 10,000 feet long. That’s considered the sweet spot for coiled tubing.Meanwhile, stick pipe is excellent in wells with longer laterals. For instance, Spears Research says that the Marcellus and Utica formations have long laterals, as we discussed above. These are areas where stick pipe works better. Its rigid, jointed design allows for better weight transfer and rotation, which clears out the well and any obstacles, even in the farthest parts of the well. Stick pipe can also handle higher sand content and more robust mechanical action, reducing its chances of getting stuck and generally making it the go-to choice for challenging completions.

Thailand’s PTT Agrees to Explore 2 Mt/y Offtake Agreement With Alaska LNG -Thailand’s state-owned PTT Public Co. Ltd. has signed a tentative agreement to participate in the Alaska LNG export project, including a pathway to buy up to 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) of U.S. natural gas. Developer Glenfarne Group LLC disclosed Monday that management met with PTT executives, Thai diplomats and U.S. State Department staff to sign a cooperative agreement for the proposed 20 Mt/y capacity project. “With today’s and previously announced agreements, Alaska LNG has now reserved 50% of its available third-party LNG offtake capacity to investment grade counterparties, and the project has overwhelming interest from additional counterparties globally,” said Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC President Adam Prestidge.

LNG Canada Starts Production – What Does It Mean for Canadian, U.S. Natural Gas Markets? - Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) NOVA AECO C forward fixed natural gas price graph showing future market volatility. LNG Canada in British Columbia (BC) confirmed it has achieved first production of LNG for export over the weekend. When fully operational next year, LNG Canada will have an export capacity of 14 million tons/year (~2.0 Bcf/d). Daily prices in Western Canada were mixed on Monday, with Westcoast Station 2 up C28.0 cents to an average of C41.0 cents/GJ and other locations nearly flat or lower. This compared to U.S. benchmark Henry Hub prices that averaged US$3.515/MMBtu and Asia’s Japan Korea Marker prices that averaged close to $14.50. Coastal GasLink pipeline, the intrastate feed gas pipeline, reported zero receipts from the Willow Valley connection near Dawson Creek, BC, according to Wood Mackenzie data. Nevertheless, there are three LNG tankers slated to take on LNG from LNG Canada: the Gaslog Glasgow arriving Wednesday, the Peteri Seijinang set to arrive July 6 and the Diamond Gas Crystal scheduled for August 14. All have a carrying capacity of around 2.5 Bcf. Now that LNG Canada is in service, there could be increased trading of Western Canadian natural gas and the potential for new markets to emerge. At the same time, Canada natural gas exports to the Lower 48 could also decrease over time because of the new premium outlet for Canada natural gas. Both of these scenarios would likely prop up prices for natural gas in the Western U.S. market. On Monday, the western United States/Rockies imported a net 3.13 Bcf of gas from Canada, while flows into the Midcontinent region were 3.62 Bcf. Prices, meanwhile, were generally in the $2.000-3.000 range.

Mexico Grants Land Concession to Coatzacoalcos LNG Terminal Anchored in Isthmus - The Mexican government has given an important green light to a modular LNG project at Coatzacoalcos on the Gulf of Mexico. “We’ve just obtained the land concession where the plant will be located, effectively anchoring the project to an exclusive economic area,” Casarve Servicios SRL director Santiago Arroyo told NGI. Comercializadora Aqualita SA and Casarve are behind Ursus Energy and a proposed LNG greenfield terminal situated in the Port of Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico, aka the Gulf of America.

Russia Looks to Challenge U.S. Influence in Mexico’s Energy Sector --Amidst the tariff wars, are we about to see the birth of new energy dynamics in the Americas? A few days ago, Russia offered to supply liquefied natural gas to the United States’ neighbor, Mexico. Because of the strategic, economic and geopolitical implications, the move quickly made sector analysts sit up and take noteMedia reports quoted Russia’s Energy Minister, Sergei Tsivilev, as saying that the country was already working with Mexico in other sectors. Now it was offering to share its liquefied natural gas technologies as well as to supply LNG directly.According to a post on the social media channel X, the Russian embassy is prepared to provide several things to Mexico. These include tech for oil extraction to overcome the hurdle of geological conditions and solutions aimed at improving the efficiency of oil processing.Nearly three-quarters of Mexico’s natural gas needs are met through imports. These supplies come almost exclusively from the U.S., primarily via pipeline, and are used for power generation and industrial operations. In fact, the U.S. is Mexico’s largest trading partner.Russia’s announcement is thus very significant for two reasons. The first is the major role that the U.S. plays in supplying energy to Mexico. The second is that in May of this year, Pemex, Mexico’s state oil company, announced it was working to restart shut oil wells in an effort to push production. The firms stated at the time that this was to meet the Mexican government’s output target of 1.8 million barrels per day. About one-third of Pemex’s 3000 plus wells in Mexico are currently shut down.If successful, this move will help Russia deepen its ties in the Western Hemisphere, particularly with a U.S. neighbor. Some geopolitical experts claim it will also be looked upon as a subtle challenge to U.S. influence in the region, particularly as Mexico explores ways to bolster energy security after disruptions like the 2021 Texas winter storm.

Could Russia Supply Mexico With LNG, Replace U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Imports? - Russian authorities have offered LNG supply to Mexico, according to a social media post by the Russian Embassy in Mexico. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) daily spot Waha natural gas price compared to exports to Mexico via pipeline. “We are already working with Mexico,” Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said, according to the post. “We have excellent LNG technologies, and we are ready to share these technologies and supply LNG as well.” Russia is also prepared to share technology with Mexico “on oil extraction in difficult geological conditions, as well as technologies to improve processing.” The embassy added that Russian companies are open to cooperation with Mexican counterparts, and “invite interested partners to collaborate.”

EU Seeks to End Russian Gas by 2027 With U.S. LNG, Demand Cuts - The European Commission (EC) has unveiled a regulatory framework for phasing out Russian oil and natural gas by the end of 2027 that relies on incentivizing LNG imports from allies, such as the United States, and reducing natural gas consumption. Under the policy, European Union (EU) member countries would have to find alternative sources for up to 52 Bcm in Russian natural gas supply within the next two years, according to EU data. EC President Ursula von der Leyen said the move to gradually ban Russian energy imports will eliminate the lingering risk and influence the country holds over Europe’s economy and security.

Global Natural Gas Prices Cool Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire, but Extreme Risks Remain — The Offtake A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• $2: Global natural gas benchmarks continued to cool Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East appeared to ratchet down. The prompt Title Transfer Facility finished just above $12/MMBtu at market close, marking a nearly $2 drop from the beginning of the week. East Asian LNG prices maintained a premium amid a lingering heat wave over the region, but also pared down to the mid-$13 range.
• 1.1 Bcf/d: Israel has approved the restart of production in two of its prolific natural gas fields amid decreasing safety concerns, restoring around 1.1 Bcf/d in regional pipeline exports. After Tuesday’s ceasefire with Iran, activities resumed in the Chevron Corp.-operated Leviathan field and the Karish field operated by Energean plc. Israeli gas exports help fuel growing demand in Jordan and Egypt, as well as LNG production at Egyptian terminals.
• $25/MMBtu: As armed conflict appears to have paused, financial institutions are tallying the possible global impacts if a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatened again. Goldman Sachs Commodity Research estimated a disruption of LNG volumes from the key shipping route could spike TTF prices to around $25. A longer and more intense disruption could see prices rise to more than $34. Researchers noted, however, that U.S. prices would likely be largely insulated from price impacts.
• 50%: The amount of global LNG volumes traded on contracts connected to gas indexes surpassed oil-linked deals for the first time last year, according to the latest report from the International Gas Union (IGU). A rise in LNG spot sales, especially trades linked to Henry Hub, helped propel gas-hub based trades above the 50% mark. IGU researchers wrote the trend has accelerated since 2016 as U.S. LNG producers provide more spot cargoes to the global market.

Global Natural Gas Prices Fluctuate as Uncertainty Clouds Middle East LNG Supply — LNG Recap --Global natural gas prices were left in flux at the start of the week as traders prepared to react to expanding conflict in the Middle East that could impact a significant portion of the world’s LNG trade.European and Asian gas benchmarks rose throughout the day on Monday on the anticipation that Iran could respond to U.S.-led airstrikes on key nuclear facilities in the country. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) dropped slightly compared to last week, holding near the mid-$13/MMBtu range.East Asian LNG prices shifted higher above $14 as traders weighed an immediate impact to Middle Eastern volumes from a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Does Vessel Offshore Arctic LNG 2 Signal Return of Russian Shadow Fleet Volumes? - An LNG vessel has appeared offshore of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 facility for the first time in eight months, raising speculation that PAO Novatek could be continuing to commission the sanctioned export project. Bar chart showing Russian Federation annual LNG exports by destination region from 2022 to 2025, with Europe and Asia as primary recipients and a sharp decline in total exports projected for 2025, based on Kpler data compiled by NGI. Iris, a Russian-flagged ship controlled by Novatek, appeared near the export facility in the Arctic Circle after lingering in the Barents Sea for the past week, according to Kpler ship tracking data. The vessel’s last voyage was in August, when it transported a cargo from Yamal LNG to China. The ship has previously been used to transport volumes from Yamal to Asia and European gas storage hubs. However, that was before European Union (EU) sanctions levied last year prevented the use of infrastructure in the bloc for transferring Russian LNG.

Shell In Talks To Acquire BP In Blockbuster $80 Billion Deal -- It appears that after we spent years pounding the table on the sector, someone else also figured out that energy stocks are trading at single digit PEs. The WSJ reports that European energy giant Shell is in early stage talks to acquire the other European energy giant, BP, in what would be the largest oil deal in a generation, and one of the largest merger deals of all time. The Journal writes that while talks between company reps are active, BP is considering the approach carefully as the resulting company would be one of the biggest energy companies in the world; acquiring BP would put Shell on firmer footing to challenge larger competitors such as ZeroHedge favorite Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and would be a landmark combination of two so-called supermajor oil companies.A Shell spokesman told the WSJ that “we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”While potential terms of any deal couldn’t be learned and a tie-up is far from certain, BP is currently valued at around $80 billion, and when taking into account the usual acquisition premium, a deal could end up as the largest corporate oil deal since the $83 billion megamerger that created Exxon Mobil at the turn of the century. It would also easily be the biggest M&A deal of the year, and one of the largest deals of the century, in a market that has been rattled by President Trump’s trade war and other geopolitical tensions.Shell is coming into the acquisition talks from a position of strength, with its stock sharply outperforming BP in recent years. Shell, which like BP is based in the U.K. but has operations around the world, has a market value of more than $200 billion. Meanhwhile, BP has been the laggard among major oil companies and a poster child for getting woke and (almost) going broke, after an ill-fated push away from fossil fuels into renewable energy, to signal just how virtuous the company is sent the stock into a tailspin. It has also suffered years of management upheaval and operational disasters.Activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which owns more than 5% of BP’s shares, has pushed for changes at the energy company since at least February, underscoring the oil and gas producer’s exposure to a potential takeover bid from a rival. BP has since adopted several measures to try to address investor frustrations. It announced plans earlier this year to boost oil and gas production and sharply cut investments in clean energy. While BP has struggled, Shell has focused on its most profitable operations, pledging to pump more oil and gas and rolling back green energy targets. When asked publicly, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said recently that the company’s bar for big dealmaking would be high. Shell in May announced a multibillion-dollar share buyback plan, the latest in a long series of big share repurchases. Shell has been working with bankers on a potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S., The Wall Street Journal previously reported. For Shell, acquiring BP would take years of integration, complicated by culture clashes and possibly the sale of overlapping assets. But a deal could give Shell’s global trading business greater reach and bolster its dominance in areas like liquefied natural gas. Analysts and investors also see a good matchup in the companies’ Gulf of Mexico operations.

Oil spill detected from Tuesday’s tanker collision in the Gulf of Oman - An oil spill is growing rapidly in the Gulf of Oman after Tuesday’s spectacular collision between a Frontline VLCC and a suezmax belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet. The accident occurred at 1:14 am Dubai time on Wednesday between two tankers, the 23-year-old Adalynn suezmax and the Liberian-flagged Front Eagle VLCC, near the Khorfakkan anchorage in the Gulf of Oman. The impact resulted in a fire aboard the Adalynn and prompted the swift evacuation of its entire crew. Lars Barstad, the CEO of Frontline, discussed the accident on stage at Marine Money’s New York gathering yesterday, saying what had transpired was the “nightmare” for any shipowner. He described the incident as having “a three football field long tanker fully laden with crude oil sailing at 13 knots and then all of a sudden you end up in a collision with a vessel that you don’t know who owns it, you don’t know who manages it, and you don’t know who insures it.” Barstad highlighted the difficulty of the situation, stating that it’s customary to establish contact with the other owner to manage the situation and ensure the safety of seafarers and the environment, but this was not possible in this instance, helping to explain how “crazy” this market has become with the rise of the dark fleet. “We’ve been very vocal on how dangerous this situation can become with the dark fleet but here we had a very, very close call of having 2m barrels of crude oil in a big sheet in the Middle East,” Barstad told delegates. While the Frontline tanker did not spill oil, there is a slick emerging from the Adalynn, with Greenpeace reporting that as of yesterday satellite images suggest the size of the slick stood at more than 15 sq km, expanding rapidly. The United Arab Emirates has provided some details of the collision. The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (MoEI) announced that preliminary information regarding the accidental collision between two ships in the Sea of Oman, approximately 24 nautical miles off the coast of the UAE, indicates that the incident was caused by a navigational misjudgment by one of the vessels with GPS spoofing clearly evident in the hours prior to the collision. Persistent reports of electronic interference have been impacting navigational systems in the region. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and the US-led Combined Maritime Force’s Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) have both issued advisories regarding interference, particularly emanating from the vicinity of Iran’s port of Bandar Abbas. This disruption is directly affecting vessels’ ability to accurately transmit Automated Identification System (AIS) data, creating significant operational and navigational challenges for maritime traffic. “The ongoing interference with navigational signals in the Gulf marks a shift from conventional threats to more complex electronic disruptions. This evolution significantly increases the risk for commercial vessels, especially in strategic chokepoints,” maritime analytics firm Windward stated in an update.

Trump frets oil price spike after bombing Iran - President Donald Trump is cautioning against oil price hikes and urging his administration to increase domestic oil production in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran over the weekend.Trump signaled Monday that he’s wary of rising oil prices that spiked Sunday after the U.S. military attacked nuclear sites in Iran. Prices had dropped again Monday. And with Americans heading into the busy Fourth of July driving season, the president sought to publicly address concerns that soaring gasoline prices might follow.“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social. The president also directed his Energy Department to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” Energy Secretary Chris Wright replied to Trump, “We’re on it!”The looming uncertainty over oil prices following the bombing of Iran presents a potential political liability for the president, who campaigned on driving down energy costs for Americans. Trump’s public pronouncements mark attempts to calm consumers and influence prices, but presidents are limited in their bility to sway global oil markets.“There’s no switch at [the Energy Department] that allows you to put more rigs on the ground or pull more oil out of the ground,” said Jeff Navin, partner and co-founder of Boundary Stone Partners who served at DOE during the Obama administration. “Those decisions are almost entirely based upon the price of oil that is set globally.”DOE does not regulate oil and gas drilling. The department supports energy research and manages the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the administration could draw from

Iran’s Retaliation Following the U.S. Airstrikes Over the Weekend - The oil market on Monday pared its early sharp gains and posted an outside trading day as Iran’s retaliation following the U.S. airstrikes against Iran over the weekend focused on regional U.S. military bases and oil and gas transit continued on tankers from the Middle East. The market’s fear of the U.S. attacking Iran was realized and caused the oil market to rally over 4.6%, only for the surge in prices to fade within hours. Early Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Iran vowed to retaliate. The oil market gapped higher from $75.74 to $78.00 and rallied to a high of $78.40. However, the market gave up its sharp gains and backfilled its gap as the market awaited for Iran’s response and production and shipment of oil out of the Middle East continued, with traders keeping an eye on the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market sold off just as sharply and posted a low of $68.20 after Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar and took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The August WTI contract settled down $5.33 or 7.22% at $68.51 and the August Brent contract ended the session down $5.53 or 7.18% at $71.48. The product markets were also pressured, with the heating oil market settling down 17.87 cents at $2.3631 and the RB market settling down 11.13 cents at $2.2182. Iran said that the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called U.S. President Donald Trump a “gambler” for joining Israel’s military campaign against the Islamic Republic. Iran and Israel traded another wave of air and missile strikes on Monday as the world braced for Tehran’s response. The spokesperson for Qom Province’s Crisis Management Headquarters said Iran’s nuclear facility of Fordow was hit again on Monday in an Israeli attack, a day after the U.S. struck the same target. On Saturday, the U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear sites, joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against Iran since its 1979 revolution. Iran vowed to defend itself after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran’s Fordow nuclear site while American leaders urged Tehran to stand down.Later on Monday, Iran’s military said it had carried out a “devastating and powerful” missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar, after explosions were heard across the Qatari capital following Tehran’s threat to retaliate for U.S. airstrikes. Qatar’s Defense Minister said its air defenses had intercepted missiles directed at the Al Udeid airbase, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, situated across the Gulf from Iran. Qatari authorities said there were no casualties in the attack, which it condemned and said it reserved the right to respond. The attack came shortly after a Western diplomat told Reuters there had been a credible threat to a U.S. military base in the Gulf state following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran.Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil Company said Eni, BP, and Total Energies operating in Iraqi oilfields have evacuated a number of their foreign personnel. However, oil operations in Iraq’s southern oilfields have not been affected, with exports averaging 3.32 million bpd.Baker Hughes has taken temporary precautionary measures to demobilize personnel from Iraq. The company also said it was continuing to monitor the evolving situation.

Oil settles down 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not tankers (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than 7% on Monday, losing more than $5 a barrel after Iran took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but instead attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities. Brent crude futures closed down $5.53, or 7.2%, at $71.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased $5.53, or 7.2%, to $68.51. Brent's 7.2% drop was the steepest since August 2022. The benchmark traded in a $10 range, the widest since July 2022. Both benchmarks were down nearly 9% in after-hours trading. "Oil flows for now aren't the primary target and are likely not to be impacted, I think it's going to be military retaliation on U.S. bases and/or trying to hit more of the Israeli civilian targets," Oil fell sharply after Iran retaliated against U.S. airstrikes on its main nuclear sites with a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East. No U.S. personnel were killed or injured in Iran's attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters. In early trade in Asia, Brent rose almost 6% as investors worried the Iranian retaliation would involve disrupting oil exports from the Middle East Gulf. Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel off southern Iran that around a fifth of global oil supply passes through on its way to refineries worldwide. Iran, OPEC's third-largest crude producer, said the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces. A telegraphed attack on a well-defended U.S. base could be a first step in reducing tensions provided there are no U.S. casualties, Energy Aspects said in a post. "Unless there are indications of further Iranian retaliation or escalation by Israel/the US then we may see some geopolitical risk premium come out of the price in subsequent days," it said. There was no interruption to QatarEnergy shipments or production after the attack, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, and no other Iranian attack detected at any U.S. military base other than in Qatar, a U.S. military official told Reuters. Qatar is one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, and all its shipments pass through the Strait. Iraq's state-run Basra Oil Company said international oil majors had evacuated some staff members working in oilfields. At least two supertankers made U-turns near the strait following the U.S. military strikes on Iran, ship tracking data shows, as more than a week of violence in the region prompted vessels to speed, pause, or alter their journeys. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a desire to see oil prices kept down amid fears that ongoing fighting in the Middle East could cause them to spike. On his Truth Social platform, he addressed the U.S. Department of Energy, encouraging "drill, baby, drill" and saying, "I mean now. Investors are still weighing up what geopolitical risk premium to put on oil prices. HSBC expects Brent prices to spike above $80 a barrel to factor in a higher probability of a strait closure, but to recede again if the threat of disruption does not materialise, the bank said on Monday.

Iran's Calculated Strike: Why Oil Prices Fell | OilPrice.com -- On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq.We would normally expect such developments to send oil prices soaring. Instead, crude prices fell by 6% in late Monday trading.That decline may seem puzzling at first. After all, this was a direct Iranian attack on the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. But the market’s response makes more sense when viewed through the lens of risk pricing and investor psychology.According to New York Times reporter Farnaz Fassihi, Iranian officials coordinated the strike in advance with Qatari authorities and provided notification of the timing and targets. Sources familiar with the plan described it as a symbolic response designed to avoid significant escalation.This mirrors Iran’s approach in 2020, when it warned Iraq before launching missiles at U.S. forces following the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. In both cases, the objective was to signal strength while minimizing the chance of escalation into uncontrollable conflict.Oil markets appear to have interpreted that restraint as a sign that significant escalation is unlikely in the short term. It’s also a sign that Iran will likely not follow through on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz–a move that would be viewed as a major escalation. The fact that oil prices fell sharply after the news broke also indicates that traders viewed the immediate threat of a widening war as diminished.In the lead-up to Iran’s response, oil prices had risen on fears of a significant response. But once the strike materialized and appeared measured, the market began to unwind that risk premium.This pattern isn’t unusual. In past crises—from the U.S. invasion of Iraq to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—prices often rise ahead of military action and fall once the scope becomes clearer. Traders price in fear and then correct as uncertainty gives way to clarity.The price response also reflects a market that assumes rational actors remain in control. That assumption, however, carries its own risks. If either side miscalculates or if a future attack causes significant casualties, conditions could shift quickly and unpredictably.There’s also the unique geopolitical role of Qatar to consider. As host to U.S. forces, a diplomatic partner to Iran, and one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, Qatar occupies a precarious middle ground. Monday’s strike—though intercepted—highlights that fragile balance.Oil prices fell after Iran’s missile strike because the market interpreted the move as symbolic rather than escalatory. That reading may prove accurate—for now. But in a region where history shows how quickly tensions can spiral, any sense of calm remains tentative. For traders, energy executives, and policymakers alike, the key reminder is this: what drives the market is generally what investors believe will happen next.

Oil prices fall after Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire - Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week as U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, relieving worries of supply disruption in the area. Mr. Trump announced that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a complete ceasefire, adding that Iran will begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict. He said that a “complete and total” ceasefire will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations. Brent crude futures fell US$2.69 or 3.76 per cent to US$68.79 a barrel as of 8:06 p.m., after falling more than 4 per cent earlier in the session and touching its lowest level since June 11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped US$2.7 or 3.94 per cent, to US$65.46 per barrel, having hit its weakest level since June 9 earlier in the session and falling around 6 per cent. “With the ceasefire news we are now seeing a continuation of the risk premium built into crude oil price last week all but evaporate,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, and the easing of tensions would allow it to export more oil and prevent supply disruptions, a major factor in oil prices jumping in recent days. Oil prices had settled down more than seven per cent on Monday, losing more than US$5 a barrel after Iran took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but instead attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities. The decline followed a rally to five-month-highs after the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, stoking fears of a broadening in the Israel-Iran conflict. “Technically, the overnight sell-off reinforces a layer of resistance between approximately US$78.40 (October 2024 and June 2025 highs) and US$80.77 (the year-to-date high), and it’s clear that it will take something extremely unexpected and detrimental to supply for crude oil to break through this layer of resistance,” Mr. Sycamore added. On Monday Brent crude futures closed down US$5.53, or 7.2 per cent, at US$71.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased US$5.53, or 7.2 per cent, to US$68.51. Brent’s drop was the steepest since August 2022.

Oil Prices Plunge As Middle East Ceasefire Eases Supply Fears -- Oil prices experienced a sharp decline following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns over potential disruptions in the Middle East's oil supply. Brent crude fell by over 3% to $68.55 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by a similar percentage to $65.68, marking their lowest levels in more than a week. The truce, brokered by US President Donald Trump, was declared on Monday evening via social media. Although initial reports suggested mutual compliance, subsequent accusations of violations by both sides have cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability. Nonetheless oil traders are clearly pricing in a normalisation of relations between the two Middle Eastern countries with the Brent crude oil price falling by around 13% and WTI by close to 15% from their Monday highs. This rapid price movement demonstrates how sensitive oil markets remain to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where any shift in tensions can trigger significant volatility across energy markets globally. The magnitude of the decline reflects the substantial risk premium that had been built into oil prices during the height of the Israel-Iran conflict, with traders now unwinding these positions as immediate supply threats appear to diminish. Previous escalation had driven risk premiums higher Prior to the ceasefire, oil prices had surged due to escalating tensions, including a US airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Qatar. These developments had raised serious concerns about potential broader regional conflict. However, Iran's limited response, which avoided critical infrastructure like the Strait of Hormuz - a vital passage for global oil shipments - signalled a potential de-escalation. This strategic restraint by Iran was viewed by markets as indicating both sides' desire to avoid full-scale confrontation. The Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to global energy security, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through this narrow waterway daily. Any disruption to this chokepoint would have dramatic implications for global energy supplies and prices. Market participants had been particularly concerned about the potential for the conflict to spread to other Gulf states or to directly impact major oil production and shipping infrastructure throughout the region. Risk premium unwinding drives price decline Market analysts suggest that the easing of geopolitical tensions has led to the unwinding of the risk premium previously factored into oil prices. Additionally, the potential for Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, to resume regular exports has contributed to the downward pressure on prices. The speed of the price decline indicates how much of the recent oil price strength was driven by geopolitical concerns rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics, highlighting the premium that markets place on Middle Eastern stability. Iran's position as a major oil producer means that any resolution of sanctions or return to normal production levels could significantly impact global supply balances, particularly if combined with existing OPEC+ production policies. The prospect of increased Iranian oil supply comes at a time when global demand growth has been moderating, potentially creating additional downward pressure on prices beyond the immediate geopolitical relief. Broader market implications of oil price decline The decline in oil prices has had ripple effects across global markets. Shares of sectors sensitive to fuel costs, such as aviation and manufacturing, saw gains as lower energy costs improve their operational economics.

Oil prices drop nearly 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk - Oil prices fell almost 6% to a two-week low on Tuesday on expectations the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. That ceasefire, however, was on shaky ground with U.S. President Donald Trump accusing both Israel and Iran of violating it just hours after it was announced. Brent crude futures fell $4.02, or 5.6%, to $67.46 a barrel at 1:26 p.m. EDT (1726 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.84, or 5.6%, to $64.67. Brent was on track for its lowest settlement since June 10 and WTI for its lowest since June 6, both before Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13. “The geopolitical risk premium built up since the first Israeli strike on Iran almost two weeks ago has entirely vanished,” On Monday, both oil contracts settled more than 7% down. They had rallied to five-month highs after the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. The direct U.S. involvement in the war also focused investors on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which between 18 million and 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and fuels flow, accounting for nearly a fifth of global consumption. Prices also fell as Trump posted on social media platform Truth Social that China, the world’s second biggest economy behind the U.S., can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. In other supply news, Kazakhstan’s state energy company KazMunayGaz raised its forecast for oil output at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, the country’s largest, to 35.7 million metric tons in 2025 from 34.8 million tons expected previously, as it boosts output. Kazakhstan is a member of the OPEC+ group of countries that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies. “Prior to the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran, we had been suggesting a bearish stance mainly due to increased OPEC+ production that has prompted ample crude supplies, an evolving dynamic that has intersected with expected demand deterioration largely due to the Trump tariffs,” In Guyana, oil output rose to 667,000 bpd in May from 611,000 bpd in April, fueled by increases at two of the three production facilities operated by U.S. major Exxon Mobil.

Announcement of a Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran on Monday Evening -- The oil market continued to sell off on Tuesday following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday evening. The market, which breached a support line late yesterday in the post settlement period, continued to trade lower on expectations that the ceasefire will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. The crude market was further pressured as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. The market posted a high of $67.83 on the opening and continued to trend lower, posting a low of $64.00 by mid-day. The oil market later traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled down $4.14 at $64.37 and the August Brent contract settled down $4.34 at $67.14. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 78 points at $2.2851 and the RB market settling sharply lower at $2.0857, down 13.25 cents. President Donald Trump sharply rebuked Israel on Tuesday for its military response following a ceasefire deal and accused both Israel and Iran of violating the agreement just hours after he announced it. Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, said he had ordered the military to strike Tehran in response to what he said were missiles fired by Iran in a violation of the ceasefire announced hours earlier by U.S. President Donald Trump. Iran denied violating the ceasefire. The armed forces general staff denied that there had been any launch of missiles towards Israel in recent hours. Separately, the Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s last wave of missiles against Israel was carried out minutes before a ceasefire implementation. The developments raised early doubts about the ceasefire, intended to end 12 days of war. Israel’s Defense Minister said in a statement he had ordered the military to “continue high-intensity operations targeting regime assets and terror infrastructure in Tehran” in light of “Iran’s blatant violation of the ceasefire declared by the President of the United States.” On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Both Israel and Iran had confirmed the ceasefire after it was announced by President Trump. A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran does not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran’s agreement during a call with Iranian officials. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had achieved the goals it had set in launching its June 13th surprise attack on Iran, to destroy its nuclear program and missile capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran’s top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, said its military had forced Israel to “unilaterally accept defeat and accept a ceasefire”.President Donald Trump said that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran and hoped that they would also buy “plenty” of it from the United States. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June as households worried about business conditions and employment prospects over the next six months. The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, erasing nearly half of the sharp gain in May. Economists had forecast the index increasing to 100.0.

Oil prices up amid ongoing Israel-Iran tensions and strong US demand signals Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday as ongoing Israel-Iran tensions raised supply concerns and US inventory data pointed to strong demand. International benchmark Brent crude rose by 0.4%, trading at $67.15 per barrel at 11.03 a.m. local time (0803 GMT), up from $66.86 at the previous session's close. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by about 0.5%, reaching at $65.05 per barrel, compared to $64.72 in the prior session. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the 12-day conflict had ended with Iran's nuclear program being "dismantled," warning of further strikes should Tehran resume its nuclear ambitions. "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon," Netanyahu said in a video posted to social media. However, US intelligence assessments suggest the airstrikes only delayed Iran's nuclear progress by a few months, falling short of fully crippling its capabilities. The developments heightened concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the region, fueling market fears of more severe attacks in the future. Moreover, despite the ceasefire, tensions remain elevated. The Israeli military said it intercepted two Iranian drones near its borders on Tuesday evening, possibly launched before the truce took effect. Israeli defense officials also accused Iran of firing a ballistic missile Tuesday morning in breach of the agreement, prompting retaliatory airstrikes on a radar facility in Tehran. US President Donald Trump also acknowledged violations by both sides, stating: "I'm not happy with Iran either, but I'm really unhappy with Israel going out this morning." The renewed involvement of the US in the regional conflict has amplified investor concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products-around 20% of global consumption-flow daily. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil stocks fell by 4.27 million barrels last week, contrary to expectations. Market expectations were for stocks to decrease by 600,000 barrels. The data, signaling stronger demand in the world's top oil consumer, gave upward support to prices.

WTI Crude Prices Edge Higher After Across The Board Inventory Draws -- Oil prices edged higher this morning after posting the biggest two-day decline since 2022, as traders assessed the Iran-Israel ceasefire and the API report overnight that pointed to another drop in US crude stockpiles.“There is no longer any real fear of the conflict spreading,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.“With Trump’s comments on Iranian oil exports, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to continue.”API

• Crude -4.28mm
• Cushing -75k
• Gasoline +764k
• Distillates -1.03mm

DOE

• Crude -5.84mm
• Cushing -464k
• Gasoline -2.08mm
• Distillates -4.07mm

The official data confirmed API's reported big crude draw and products also saw major inventory drawdowns last week... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Total US crude stockpiles dropped to their lowest since January...Despite a small 237k addition to the SPR, Crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week...US crude production pushed modestly higher last week as the rig count continues to slide... WTI Crude prices inched higher after the report following two days of carnage...

Oil rebounds on signs of strong US demand (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp slide early this week, as data showed relatively strong U.S. demand, and as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Brent crude futures settled 54 cents higher, or 0.8%, at $67.68 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended up 55 cents, or 0.9%, at $64.92, both paring some of the 13% losses made earlier in the week. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday, Brent settled at its lowest since June 10 and WTI ended at its lowest since June 5 on the reduced Middle East supply risk. Oil prices had rallied after June 13, when Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Prices hit five-month highs after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. "While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply," Prices found support from Wednesday's government data that showed U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week. Crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels, data showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 797,000-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 381,000-barrel build as gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest since December 2021. "We are looking at big draws across the board," "This type of report can refocus on U.S. supply and demand, and less on geopolitics." A slew of U.S. macroeconomic data released overnight, including data on consumer confidence, showed possibly weaker-than-expected economic growth in the world's largest oil consumer, bolstering expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. The market is betting that the Fed could cut U.S. interest rates as soon as September, which would typically spur economic growth and demand for oil.

Oil Prices Edge Higher as US Oil Inventories Shrink -- Oil futures rose Thursday morning, supported by a weekly U.S. government inventory report showing oil and product stocks declining, with commercial crude oil inventories falling for a fifth straight week to an 11-year seasonal low. NYMEX-traded WTI for August rose $0.32 barrel (bbl) to trade near $65.24 bbl, and ICE Brent for August delivery gained $0.24 bbl to $67.92 bbl. July RBOB gasoline futures added $0.0124 to $2.0948 gallon, and the front-month ULSD futures contract advanced $0.0417 to trade near $2.3381 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened 0.293 points to a 3-year low 96.980. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday confirmed the large draw to domestic crude oil inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute Tuesday. According to EIA data, commercial inventories shrank by 5.8 million bbls in the week ended June 20, more than 1 million bbls above API's estimate, and beating analyst expectations of a 600,000-bbl decline. Gasoline and diesel stocks also fell sharply last week, stoking bullish sentiment. Oil futures have shed the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Israel-Iran war which sent prices rocketing over the past two weeks as both countries have so far largely adhered to the ceasefire. The White House reaffirming its continued commitment to sanctions on Iranian energy trade also supported prices.

Traders Remained Cautious Over the Iran-Israel Ceasefire -- The oil market on Thursday continued to trend sideways as traders remained cautious over the Iran-Israel ceasefire and focused on the fundamentals after the EIA on Wednesday reported draws in inventories. The crude market held its support at Wednesday’s low as it posted a low of $64.66 early in the session. It recouped some of its previous losses as it focused on oil balances in light of the EIA reporting draws in crude oil and fuel inventories for the week ending June 20th, as refining activity and demand increased. The market breached its previous high of $66.03 and traded to $66.42 by mid-day. The market was also driven higher as the dollar fell to a 3-½ year low as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than previously expected. The oil market later erased some of its gains ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled up 32 cents at $65.24 and August Brent contract settled up 5 cents at $67.73. The product markets end the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.37 cents at $2.3601 and the RB market settling up 1.66 cents at $2.0990. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel, Iran would respond to any future U.S. attack by striking American military bases in the Middle East. He said any attack on Iran would come at a “great cost”, and noted that Iran had fired on the largest U.S. base in the region, located in Qatar, after Washington joined the Israeli strikes. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the U.S. “gained no achievement” when it joined the war with Israel against Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump said nothing was moved from an Iranian nuclear facility, echoing U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who earlier said he was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved its uranium to shield it from U.S. strikes over the weekend. The Financial Times reported that European capitals believe Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following U.S. strikes on its main nuclear sites. The newspaper, citing two people briefed on preliminary intelligence assessments, said European capitals believe Iran’s stockpile of 408 kilogram of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack. European capitals believe Iran’s stockpile of 408 kilogram of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack. The U.N. nuclear watchdog said it had not received an official communication from Iran about a parliamentary bill to suspend cooperation with it that according to media reports earlier in the day had received final approval. The CFO of EOG Resources said this week that U.S. shale oil production has “definitely slowed” as a result of growing steep declines in production levels in unconventional wells and the recent capital discipline exercised by upstream producers. He expected U.S. domestic production will likely rest and then trail off gradually in the near-to medium term. He noted that typically production recently from unconventional wells will see production rates drop by more than half or more during the first year of production.

Oil inches up on US demand strength; fading Mideast supply risks offset gains (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as crude inventories in the United States fell on higher demand as summer driving season ramped up, while concerns over Middle East supply risks eased, offsetting some gains. Brent crude futures settled 5 cents, or 0.07%, higher to $67.73 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 32 cents, or 0.49%, to $65.24 a barrel. Both benchmarks climbed nearly 1% on Wednesday, recovering from losses earlier in the week after data showed resilient U.S. demand. Brent futures were trading below their close of $69.36 on June 12, the day before Israel started airstrikes on Iran. The U.S. driving season had started slowly but was now stoking demand, ANZ analysts said. "The market is starting to digest the fact that crude oil inventories are very tight all of a sudden," - U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell in the week to June 20 as refining activity and demand rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels, the EIA said, exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 797,000-barrel draw. Also supporting oil prices, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, sank to a three-year low as a report that President Donald Trump was planning to choose the next Federal Reserve chief early fuelled fresh bets on U.S. rate cuts. A weaker dollar makes oil less expensive for holders of other currencies, increasing demand. However, signs of easing Middle East supply risks offset some gains. Shortly before oil markets settled on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the outcome of Israel's war with Iran presented opportunities for peace that his country must not waste. Trump hailed the swift end to war between Iran and Israel and said Washington would likely seek a commitment from Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks with Iranian officials next week. Trump also said on Wednesday that the U.S. was maintaining maximum pressure on Iran - including restrictions on sales of Iranian oil - but signalled a potential easing in enforcement to help the country rebuild. "(The) rapid push for a ceasefire suggests that President Trump remains sensitive to high oil prices, in our view, potentially capping the geopolitical risk premium even as the conflict may linger," Citi said in a note on Thursday.

Crude oil prices rise on US demand uptick, China stimulus hopes --Global crude oil prices edged higher on Friday, buoyed by signs of strengthening demand in the US and renewed hopes of an economic stimulus in China—the world’s second-largest oil consumer. At 8am (Indian time), the August Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange traded at $68.14 per barrel, up 0.61% from its previous close. The August West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract on the NYMEX was at $65.67 a barrel, up 0.66%. Data released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a sharp drawdown of 5.84 million barrels for the week ending June 20, bringing inventories to their lowest seasonal level in 11 years. Analysts viewed the decline as a clear sign of rising demand in the US. Prices were also supported by optimism over policy stimulus in China. On Tuesday, Beijing unveiled a set of guidelines aimed at boosting domestic consumption through targeted financial measures. The policy framework—jointly issued by six ministries and the People’s Bank of China—called on financial institutions to improve credit access and services to stimulate both supply and demand-side consumption, support employment, and raise household incomes. China is both the second-largest consumer and importer of crude oil globally. However, crude prices remain lower on a weekly basis, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East helped cool supply concerns. A ceasefire brokered earlier this week between Israel and Iran led to a retreat in prices, which had spiked following a US strike on three Iranian nuclear sites. After the ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, prices dropped to levels last seen before Israel's attack on 13 June. The Indian crude basket, meanwhile, was priced at $68.12 per barrel on 25 June. For the month so far, the average stands at $69.98 per barrel—higher than May’s average of $64.04. The Indian basket reflects a weighted average of imported sour grades (Oman and Dubai) and sweet grades (Brent Dated), mirroring the typical crude mix processed by Indian refineries.

Putin: OPEC+ projects rising oil demand, especially in summer (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers including Russia projects rising global demand especially in the summer months, in comments suggesting the bloc may continue with large output hikes. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, shocked oil markets in April by agreeing a bigger-than-expected output rise for May despite weak prices and slowing demand. OPEC+ has since decided to continue with hikes above what was planned. "The volumes of crude oil and oil products consumed in the world are rising due to the growth of the economy itself," Putin said at a televised meeting with reporters. "Production is increasing only in the volume that we agreed upon within the framework of OPEC+, and it is designed for increasing demand, especially in the summer," he said. Putin also addressed Europe's plans to tighten sanctions against Russia, including cutting the price cap for Russian oil to $45 per barrel from $60 per barrel. "The more the sanctions, the worse for those who introduce the sanctions," Putin said, adding it was impossible to "shut down" Russia's oil and that the sanctions will not have a significant impact on Russia. A group of eight OPEC+ countries which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria will meet online on July 6 to discuss their production policy.

Oil steadies after report of planned OPEC+ August output hike (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday, recovering from a midday drop into negative territory following a report that OPEC+ was planning to hike production in August, but tumbled about 12% in the week in their biggest drop since March 2023. Brent crude futures settled at $67.77 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $65.52 a barrel. Four delegates from OPEC+, which includes allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar-size output increase already planned for July. "The report about an OPEC increase came out and prices cratered," Crude prices were already headed for a 12% decline for the week following the cease-fire between Israel and Iran. During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire. "The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market," Prices had also been supported earlier in Friday's session by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, U.S. government data on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, with refining activity and demand rising. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week. Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the Israel-Iran conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said. China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data. The U.S. oil and natural gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell for a fourth straight month to its lowest since October 2021, Baker Hughes said. The number of oil rigs fell by six to 432 this week, also the lowest level since October 2021.

Oil posts steepest weekly decline in three years as risk subsides -Oil prices rose on Friday but posted their steepest weekly decline in three years, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate. Brent crude futures rose 4 cents to close at $67.77 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 28 cents, or 0.43%, to settle at $65.52. During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire. Brent finished the week 12% lower, its worst week since August 2022. U.S. crude dropped about 11%, its worst week since March 2023. "The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. He said the market was also keeping an eye on the July 6 meeting of oil producers group OPEC+, where another output hike of 411,000 barrels per day is expected, while adding that summer demand indicators were key as well. Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group, said expectations of higher demand in the coming months were also giving crude a boost on Friday. "We're getting a demand premium on oil," Flynn said. A possible end to the 19-month war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and expected agreements between the U.S., Europe and China on trade were positive signs for the market, he added. "If we get a trade deal with China, we're going to be in pretty good shape," Flynn said. Prices were also supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week. Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the Israel-Iran conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said. China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data.

Rubio warns of global oil disruption over Hormuz closure Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to intervene to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important shipping routes for the world. In an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” host Maria Bartiromo asked Rubio whether he expected Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to disrupt oil transportation globally. “I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio replied. As the world braces for possible retaliation from Iran — after the United States bombed three of its nuclear sites on Saturday — Rubio warned Sunday that closing the vital strait would be “economic suicide” for Tehran. He also warned that other countries could intervene if Iran takes that step. “If they do that, it’ll be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them if they do it,” Rubio said. “And we retain options to deal with that.” “But other countries should be looking at that as well,” he added. “It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours. It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would merit a response not just by us but from others.”

UK warns Iran against Strait of Hormuz blockade - — Britain warned Iran on Monday that retaliatory fire on U.S. bases in the Middle East and the blockading of a key trade route would be a “catastrophic mistake.”The Iranian parliament on Sunday endorsed a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital — and narrow — gateway for oil shipments from Persian Gulf countries.The final decision, which will be made as Iran mulls its response to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Speaking to the BBC on Monday, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said he had urged his Iranian counterpart not to further escalate the conflict — and insisted that the supreme leader “gets” that it would be a mistake to blockade the strait.

Vladimir Putin to meet with Iranian foreign minister, ready to support Tehran --Russia stands ready to help Iran in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but Tehran first needs to articulate its requests, a Kremlin spokesperson said Monday. Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters at a briefing that the assistance “all depends on what Iran needs,” according to TASS, Russia’s state-run news agency. “We have offered our mediation efforts. This is concrete. We have stated our position, which is also a very important form of support for the Iranian side,” Peskov continued. “Going forward, everything will depend on what Iran needs at this moment.” Peskov noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday, and the two plan to discuss options for assistance. “Just today, the Iranian Foreign Minister [Abbas Araghchi] will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where they will be able to exchange views in the wake of this traumatic escalation,” Peskov said. “And, in fact, the Iranian side will be able to inform us about its proposals and its vision of the current situation,” he added. The remarks come after President Trump announced Saturday evening that U.S. forces bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, the last of which is located inside a mountain.

Israel Says It Fired 200 Munitions at Iran in Strikes on Monday - The Israeli military said on Monday that its air force fired 200 munitions into Iran after a day of heavy attacks across the country, as the death toll in the Israeli bombing campaign is nearing 1,000, according to numbers from a US-based rights group.The Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), which is very critical of Iran’s government, said that as of Sunday night, Israeli strikes on Iran since June 13 have killed at least 950 people, including 380 civilians, 253 military personnel, and 317 that have yet to be classified.Another 3,450 people have been injured, including 1,564 civilians, 248 military personnel, and 1,638 who haven’t been classified. The HRAI’s news agency, HRANA, said that over the past 10 days, Israeli strikes “in Iran have targeted infrastructure, military and civilian facilities, residential and industrial areas in 25 provinces.”Israeli strikes on Monday included the bombing of the Evin prison in Tehran, which is known to hold political prisoners and dissidents. According to The Times of Israel, the strike was apparently intended to allow the detainees to escape the facility.The HRANA reported that the Israeli attack struck the prison’s main entrance gate and a judiciary building located within the compound. Several Iranian soldiers were reported killed in the strikes, and several prison staff and inmates were reported to be wounded.The Israeli military also claimed that it targeted facilities in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran has also continued to fire missiles at Israel and strike targets inside the country. It also launched a retaliatory attack on a US base in Qatar on Monday in response to the US bombing of its nuclear facilities.

Iran Says More Than 600 Killed by Israeli Attacks -Iran’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday that 606 Iranians had been killed and 5,332 injured during Israel’s 12-day bombing of the country, while a US-based rights group put the number closer to 1,000.Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarqandi said 107 were killed in the previous 24 hours as Israel dramatically ramped up its attacks on the country before a fragile ceasefire, which appears to be holding, went into effect. President Trump criticized Israel for ramping up the attacks after he announced the truce.The breakdown of the casualties is unclear, but Zafarqandi said women and children were among the dead. He said Israel targeted military, nuclear, and residential sites, killing top military commanders, scientists, and ordinary civilians.The Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), which is based in Washington and is critical of the Islamic government in Tehran, said that as of Monday night, it has confirmed 974 fatalities using non-government sources. The dead include 387 civilians, 268 military personnel, and 319 who have yet to be classified.The HRAI’s news agency said that over the past 11 days, it had recorded Israeli attacks on “infrastructure, military and civilian facilities, residential areas, and industrial zones across 26 provinces.” Zafarqandi said that Iran hit back at Israel with 22 waves of ballistic missile attacks. According to the latest numbers from the Israeli government, the Iranian strikes killed 28 people, including civilians who were killed in residential buildings.

Iran Confirms Death Of 'War-Time Chief Of Staff' After Israeli Attacks -- Israel claims that its military campaign against Iran has resulted in the targeted killing of at least 14 scientists. Although these were key figures, the reality is that this is unlikely to completely halt any potential nuclear ambitions.Speaking to The Associated Press, Israel’s ambassador to France has declared that assassinations would make it "almost" impossible for Iran to develop nuclear weapons with what infrastructure might remain. Other assessments say that all of this set back the Islamic Republic's program by a mere months.And of course, nuclear scientists are replaceable - and it remains that the country's nuclear energy program has always been large, and a top national priority.Also important is that on Wednesday Iran belatedly confirmed the death of Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani, who succumbed to injuries sustained during Israeli airstrikes last week.Shadmani had been appointed on June 13 to lead the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which coordinates operations between Iran’s regular military and the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).He filled the top spot following the death of his predecessor, Lt. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, in Israel’s earlier attacks that took the lives of several senior commanders.Israel had called Shadmani Iran's ‘War-Time Chief of Staff’ upon claiming his death in a targeted operation last week. But Tehran has only now issued official confirmation of his death.Additionally:At least 35 Air Defense Force personnel were killed in the Israeli attacks between June 13 and Tuesday, Iran’s semi-official Student News Network (SNN) said today.SNN published the names of those who were killed. Among them were two brigadier generals, seven colonels and three lieutenant colonels.Below are some further casualty figures in Iran following what Trump dubbed the '12-day war':At least 627 people were killed in Iran during its conflict with Israel in the period between June 13 and June 25, Iranian state media outlet IRIB reported on Wednesday, citing the country’s health ministry.At least 4,870 other people were injured during that time, IRIB said.The health ministry said 86% of the victims died at the scene of Israeli attacks, as cited by IRIB.

Giant Leviathan Gas Field Offshore Israel Resumes Operations --The massive Leviathan gas field offshore Israel is resuming production on Wednesday, following two weeks in which it was shut down due to the Israel-Iran conflict. Following the ceasefire from earlier this week, Chevron’s unit, Chevron Mediterranean Limited, received a notice from the Israeli Ministry of Energy and Infrastructures, whereby the Leviathan platform may be restarted and prepared for production, Israeli firm NewMed, a partner in the Leviathan field, said on Wednesday.Accordingly, Chevron is now working on restarting the platform and resuming regular production from the reservoir within a few hours, NewMed said.Leviathan is a major supplier of gas to Egypt and Jordan, which scrambled in the past weeks to replace lost gas supply from Israel’s major gas field.Another gas field offshore Israel that had stopped production during the conflict has also been cleared by the Israeli authorities to restart output.UK-based oil and gas producer Energean plc suspended production from its offshore platform in Israel amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East earlier this month.After U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire earlier this week, Energean announced on Wednesday that it is working to safely restart production and resume normal operations at the Energean Power FPSO, after receiving notice from the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, instructing the safe restart and resumption of production and operations.

Israeli troops engage in continuous indiscriminate killing of Palestinian aid seekers in Gaza - Over the weekend, Israeli troops once again unleashed a wave of military violence upon Palestinian civilians in Gaza, killing at least 44 people in a series of attacks. According to local officials, many of those killed were simply trying to obtain desperately needed food for their families. On Friday, approximately 25 Palestinians were killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as they waited for aid trucks south of Netzarim in the central Gaza Strip. The local Palestinian health authority reported that the victims had gathered in hopes of receiving food, only to be mowed down by Israeli fire. This massacre is the latest in an ongoing campaign of violence targeting civilians at aid distribution points. The IDF responded to inquiries about the incident by once again claiming their troops had fired warning shots at “suspected militants” who advanced toward them in a crowd. According to the IDF, an Israeli aircraft then “struck and eliminated the suspects.” The IDF statement acknowledged that others were hurt in the incident and that the military was conducting a review. The Israeli military’s justification—that militants were advancing in a crowd—is a transparent cover for indiscriminate use of lethal force against unarmed civilians. The violence in Gaza was not confined to aid distribution sites. Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed at least 19 more Palestinians on Friday, including 12 people in a single house in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza. Meanwhile, the Wafa news agency said that at least three people were killed and several others wounded by an IDF drone strike that targeted Palestinians in al-Mawasi in southern Gaza. Al Jazeera said Wafa reported, “the attack targeted a tent sheltering displaced members of the Shurrab family. The tent was in an area the Israeli military had previously designated as a ‘safe zone.’” Al Jazeera also reported that in the last 48 hours, at least 202 people have been killed, including four recovered bodies after Israeli attacks, and 1,037 wounded by Israeli attacks across Gaza, the Health Ministry reported.

Israeli Forces Kill 74 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Wednesday that Israeli attacks killed at least 74 Palestinians and wounded 391 over the previous 24-hour period as the daily US-backed slaughter continues.The Health Ministry said another five bodies of Palestinians killed in previous attacks were recovered. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Medical sources told Al Jazeera that at least 14 Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire while waiting near aid distribution sites run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. According to the Health Ministry, at least 549 Palestinians have been massacred while seeking aid since the GHF began operating at the end of May. Heavy Israeli airstrikes and shelling also pounded targets across the Strip. According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, at least 15 people were killed by Israeli shelling in the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis. In Gaza City in the north, WAFA reported that at least eight people were killedby Israeli bombings of residential areas.Al Jazeera reported that five people were killed in an Israeli strike on a home in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, and another three Palestinians were killed by an Israeli attack in the nearby Nuseirat refugee camp.On Tuesday, seven Israeli soldiers were killed in a Hamas ambush in Khan Younis. According to Israeli media, the troops were killed when an explosive was detonated and set an armored personnel carrier on fire. Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, took credit for destroying a “Zionist personnel carrier.”The Health Ministry said the latest violence has brought the death toll since October 7, 2023, to 56,156 and the number of wounded to 132,239. Studies have shown that the Health Ministry’s numbers are a significant undercount, and estimates that factor in indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege and destruction of all of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure bring the death toll into the hundreds of thousands.

Israel Ramps Up Strikes on Gaza, Killing 103 Palestinians Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Thursday that Israeli attacks killed 103 Palestinians and wounded 219 over the previous 24-hour period as US-backed Israeli strikes ramped up across the Strip over the past day.The Health Ministry’s numbers account for dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Israeli attacks on Thursday included more killings of Palestinians seeking aid. According to Al Jazeera, at least three people were killed while waiting near a distribution site run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation in the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip.The Associated Press reported that 18 people were killed by an Israeli airstrike on a crowd of people in central Gaza’s Deir el-Balah who were receiving aid from a Palestinian police unit that confiscated goods from gangs that looted aid trucks. The security unit, known as Sahm, is run by the Hamas-led Interior Ministry but includes other factions, including tribal groups. Witnesses told AP that the Sahm was handing out bags of flour and other goods when the strike hit the crowd. According to hospital officials, the bombing killed at least one child and seven members of the security unit. Israel has backed a gang in southern Gaza that was responsible for significant aid looting last year. The strike on the security unit came after Israeli officials announced a halt to aid shipments over claims that Hamas was stealing aid, which has been denied by Palestinian clans in Gaza, who say armed men seen on aid trucks were providing security against looting.Israeli strikes also pounded other targets across the Strip, and photos and videos from Gaza show many children among the dead and wounded.

Israeli Soldiers Ordered to Fire on Aid-Seekers in Gaza - Israeli soldiers speaking with Haaretz say they received orders to fire on desperate Palestinians attempting to reach aid distribution sites in Gaza. Over 550 Palestinians have been killed trying to get aid in the past month. “Israeli soldiers in Gaza told Haaretz that the army has deliberately fired at Palestinians near aid distribution sites,” the outlet explains. Conversations with officers and soldiers reveal that commanders ordered troops to shoot at crowds to drive them away or disperse them, even though it was clear they posed no threat.”Earlier this week, the Gaza Health Ministry reported that 549 Palestinians have been killed and over 4,000 injured since Israel restarted aid distribution near the end of May. The IDF has even fired on Palestinians waiting to receive aid with drones and tanks. One soldier explained to Haaretz, “It’s a killing field.” They added that the Israeli soldiers fired at the Palestinians even though the aid seekers did not present a threat. An officer told the outlet, “It’s neither ethically nor morally acceptable for people to have to reach, or fail to reach, a [humanitarian zone] under tank fire, snipers and mortar shells.” A doctor in Gaza speaking to NBC News about the aid sites in Gaza said, “It’s a death trap, it’s a slaughterhouse.” They report receiving dozens of patients daily who were wounded near the aid sites. On Thursday, at least 18 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli air strike while attempting to receive aid that the Gaza police had recovered from looters. At the beginning of March, Tel Aviv broke a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas by cutting off all aid entering the Strip. Near the end of May, Israel began allowing the US-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) to distribute a limited amount of aid in Gaza. Human rights groups warned that the GHF’s distribution plan would be insufficient. Over the past week, children have died of deprivation. On Thursday, two infants at the Al-Nassar Hospital in Khan Younis died due to a lack of formula. The US recently approved sending $30 million to the GHF. The leader of the GHF, Rev Johnny Moore, is a close ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The doctors who spoke with NBC News said that Israeli aid restrictions are the cause of the formula shortages that are now killing Gazan babies.

Russian Troops Take Another Eastern Ukraine Town As NATO Leaders Wrangle Over 'What's Next' --As NATO leaders met in The Hague for their major annual summit - where the focus was collective increased defense spending, Trump's proclamation of Iran's nuclear program having been 'obliterated', and more support for Ukraine - Russian forces gained another town in Eastern Ukraine. According to Reuters on Wednesday, "Russian forces have taken control of the settlement of Yalta in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, the state-run RIA news agency reported on Wednesday citing the Russian Defense Ministry." "Battlegroup East units liberated the settlement of Yalta in the Donetsk People’s Republic through active and decisive actions," the defense ministry said in the statement. While Reuters and others are not able to independently verify the battlefield report, this is part of Russian forces' slow but steady momentum in the east, and even lately expanding west of Donetsk as part of establishing Putin's big security 'buffer zone'. At this point it's clear that Kiev's backers in NATO can do nothing about this, except throw more money and weapons at the conflict, and President Trump met with Zelensky on Wednesday on the sidelines of the NATO meeting. The two reportedly discussed Ukraine procuring more US anti-air defense systems, which ironically enough will likely be purchased with US taxpayer funds already poured into Kiev's coffers. As for Ukraine's push for more US sanctions on Moscow, the response from The Hague was as follows: “If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them [Russia] with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire – and then who’s talking to them?” Rubio said at the NATO summit.