US gasoline supplies at a 97 week low after biggest drop in 11 months on record jump in gasoline demand to a 34 month high

US oil production at a record high; US oil supplies rose by the most since April; US gasoline supplies at a 97 week low after the biggest drop since November 2023, on a record jump in gasoline demand to a 34 month high, while gasoline imports were at a 32 week low; distillates supplies at a 20 week low with distillates demand at a 30 week high

oil prices rose for the fourth time in five weeks as the market awaited an Israeli retaliation against Iran….after rising 9.1% to $74.38 a barrel last week, the largest​ price jump since March 2023, after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel and Biden discussed a retaliation against Iranian oil refineries, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery continued rising in overseas markets on Monday, as concerns over a potential escalation of ​the war in the Middle East fanned fears of delays to exports from the region, and never looked back during the New York session as the market weighed the threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East and ​h​it $77.22 by mid-day, before settling into a sideways trading range ahead of a close to finish $2.76 higher at $77.14 a barrel as the market waited for Israel to strike Iran…however, oil prices plunged in overseas markets Tuesday as China’s top economic planner ended a highly anticipated briefing without new stimulus measures, sparking a risk-off ​m​ove across markets, then slumped by more than 4% in early US trading, as traders had yet to see an actual supply disruption in the Middle East, so they turned to focus on China’s underwhelming demand again, and settled $3.57 or nearly 5% lower at $73.57 a barrel as traders took profits on ​the news of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel….oil prices fell further in after hours trading after The American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected spike in US crude oil inventories, and held those losses in early trading on Wednesday after the EIA also reported a large crude inventory build, then sold off on weak demand after the EIA lowered its demand forecast for next year, then traded in a narrow range during the remainder of the session and settled down 33 cents at $73.24 a barrel, as losses were limited by the risk of Iranian supply disruptions ​in the Persian Gulf and by Hurricane Milton in the ​Gulf of Mexico.​...oil prices edged higher in Asia on Thursday​, as markets remained on tenterhooks amid uncertainties about Middle East supply risks​, and a spike in US demand caused by hurricane Milton, then retraced its previous losses in New York as the market remained concerned over the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and settled $2.61 higher at $75.85 a barrel, supported by continued worries over the potential for a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran that could threaten Middle East crude flows…oil prices eased on Friday as traders booked profits and unwound some positions ahead of Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran and the potential rollout of fresh economic stimulus in China, and settled 29 cents lower at $75.56 a barrel as traders weighed possible supply disruptions in the Middle East against Hurricane Milton's impact on fuel demand in Florida, but still managed to book a 1.6% gain on the week...

meanwhile, natural gas prices fell for a second week​ following a four week run-up, as traders anticipated anther storm related hit to demand from a Category 5 Hurricane heading to Florida…after falling 1.7% to $2.854 per mmBTU last week as the millions without power in the wake of Hurricane Helene ​led to reduced natural gas demand from electric utilities, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for November delivery opened three cents lower on Monday and slid from there, as traders figured on a​ further decline in demand with Hurricane Milton on track hit Florida as a Category 5 storm, and settled 10.8 cents, or 3.8% lower, at $2.746 per mmBTU on expectations that Hurricane Milton would cut the amount of gas power generators need to burn l​by knocking out electricity service to ​ millions of homes and businesses in Florida….natural gas prices opened 4 cents lower on Tuesday, but then​ began a hesitant ascent throughout the session, as traders weighed recent bullish forecasts against the weak demand expectations in Florida, but finished on a downbeat to settle 1.3 cents lower at $2.733 per mmBTU on expectations ​that power generators would burn less gas after Hurricane Milton knocked  out power to millions in Florida later this week….natural gas prices opened lower again on Wednesday and ​traded in a downward trend throughout the day, as Hurricane Milton began reducing demand in Florida and settled 7.3 cents lower at $2.660 per mmBTU as the National Hurricane Center projected Milton would slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm on Wednesday night before sweeping across the central part of the state on Thursday…natural gas prices opened 4 cents lower on Thursday and dipped to an intraday low of $2.596 after the somewhat bearish storage report hit the wire, but clawed out an afternoon relief rally even as Hurricane Milton smacked western Florida late Wednesday and pushed across the state the following morning, knocking out power for millions of residents, and settled 1.5 cents higher ay $2.675 per mmBTU….natural gas contracts traded in a narrow range on Friday as traders tried to balance forecasts for northern US heating demand against higher production and the demand destruction ​due to the former Hurricane Milton, and settled 4.3 cents lower at $2.632 per mmBTU amid mostly mild fall weather in northern markets and the demand destruction imposed by the massive hurricane that crashed into Florida, and thus ended 7.8% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 4th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 82 billion cubic feet to 3,629 billion cubic feet by the end of that week, which left our natural gas supplies 124 billion cubic feet, or 3.5% above the 3,505 billion cubic feet that were in storage on October 4th of last year, and 176 billion cubic feet, or 5.1% more than the five-year average of 3,453 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 4th of October over the most recent five years…the 82 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 76 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts were forecasting ahead of the report, but was a bit less than the 85 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in September of 2023, and well less the average 96 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early autumn week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 4th indicated that after a modest decrease in our oil imports was offset by an increase in our production, a decrease in our refining, and a decrease in our oil exports, we again had a working oil surplus to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the fourth time in fourteen weeks, and for the 19th time in the past 43 weeks, as the EIA’s balance sheet was nearly in balance...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 389,000 barrels per day to 6,239,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 171,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 84,000 barrels per day to 3,794,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,445,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 4th, 305,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 584,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 100,000 barrels per day higher at a record high of 13,400,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,429,000 barrels per day during the October 4th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,590,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 4th, an average of 101,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 884,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 4th averaged a rounded 44,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +44,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… (for the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 884,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 830,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 54,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-third SPR increase in the past fifty weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,411,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.5% less than the 6,572,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day higher at a record high of 13,400,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 100,000 barrels per day higher at 13,000,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day lower at 432,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.3% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 86.7% of their capacity while processing those 15,590,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 4th, down from from their 87.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, but not an unusual decrease for early Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 15,590,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 2.5% more than the 15,203,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending October 6th of 2023, but 0.4% less than the 15,656,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending October 4th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic below normal 85.7% for early October…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was higher, increasing by 627,000 barrels per day to 10,229,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 4th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 235,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 5.6% more than the 9,684,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending October 6th of last year, and was 1.6% more than the gasoline production of 10,066,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending October 4th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 194,000 barrels per day to 4,988,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 104,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After twenty-two production increases in the past thirty-two weeks, our distillates output was 5.5% more than the 4,727,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 6th of 2023, and 3.2% more than the 4,835,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 4th, 2019…

Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 22nd time in thirty-six weeks, decreasing by 6,304,000 barrels to 214,898,000 barrels to a 97 week low during the week ending October 4th, the biggest drop since November 2023, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,119,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by a record 1,133,000 barrels per day to a 3​4 month high of 9,654,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 112,000 barrels per day to a 32 week low 428,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 20,000 barrels per day to 942,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-two gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-six weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.8% below last October 6th’s gasoline inventories of 225,671,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Despite this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 22nd time in the past thirty-eight weeks, decreasing by 3,124,000 barrels to a twenty w​eek low of 118,513,000 barrels over the week ending October 4th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,284,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 393,000 barrels per day to a 30 week high of 4,031,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 90,000 barrels per day to 104,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 27,000 barrels per day to 1,507,000 barrels per day....Even after 22 inventory withdrawals over the past 38 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.3% above the 116,958,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 6th of 2023, while they are still about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with changes to oil supply and oil demand nearly offsetting each other, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 25th time in the past year, and by the most since April, increasing by 5,810,000 barrels over the week, from 416,931,000 barrels on September 27th to 422,741,000 barrels on October 4th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,889,000 barrels over the prior week… Even with this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and rose to about 27% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first week of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this October 4th were 0.4% less than the 424,239,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on October 6th of 2023, and 3.7% less than the 439,082,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 7th of 2022, but 0.4% more than the 420,887,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 1st of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 11th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 4th) and this week’s (October 11th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s October 4th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 13th of October, 2023…

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Critical (Energy) Election for Ohio Supreme Court Judges This Nov. - Marcellus Drilling News - The stakes in this November’s election are incredibly high—for the country as a whole and for shale energy everywhere, including here in the Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania has been the focus this election season due to the presidential race. However, there is another M-U state, Ohio, where the outcome of a statewide race is also very important: that of the Ohio Supreme Court. There are seven judges on Ohio’s high court, with Republicans holding a slim 4-3 majority. There are three seats up for election. It is anticipated that the Ohio Supreme Court will handle an appeal by anti-fossil fuel zealots of the state’s law that allows drilling under (not on) state land and state parks. If the high court tips to the radical left, drilling under state land is in jeopardy.

Hold state legislative candidates accountable for voting to frack Ohio state parks – Save Ohio Parks - In December 2023, during the Christmas holiday lame duck session – with no public participation — the Ohio General Assembly stuffed a poultry bill with fossil fuel amendments and passed a law requiring fracking of Ohio’s state parks and public lands for gas and oil. HB 507 also falsely defined fracked gas as a “green energy,” despite climate scientists’ warnings that methane is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Ohio public lands include state parks, forests, wilderness and wildlife areas, public colleges and universities, and Ohio Department of Transportation rights of way. Save Ohio Parks, the statewide, all-volunteer group concerned about the effects of fracking on human health, the environment, its fresh water, and planet warming, lists in a Candidate Accountability document the legislators who voted yes on H.B. 507 and are running for office in 2024 – 13 for Ohio Senate seats and 35 for Ohio House. Download the Save Ohio Parks Voting Guide for Park Lovers“Your vote can hold accountable the politicians running for re-election this year for industrializing pristine lands dedicated in 1949 for the enjoyment and leisure of all Ohioans,” said Cathy Cowan Becker, steering committee member at Save Ohio Parks. “These lands belong to the people of Ohio, not politicians.” Save Ohio Parks suggests voters should ask candidates in local political forums why they voted to frack our beloved state parks, wildlife areas, and other public lands, then consider voting for their opponents. “We need leaders who care about Ohioans’ quality of life and the future of our public lands for our children and grandchildren. We need lawmakers who serve the citizens of Ohio, not the oil and gas industry,” Cowan Becker said. Methane emissions from fracking operations and transportation are a top cause of planet- warming carbon pollution driving the climate crisis. Warmer oceans supercharge storms and make hurricanes like Helene and Milton more frequent and increasingly dangerous. “Climate change is real, and climate change is here,” Cowan Becker said. “We need to halve our greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and simultaneously ramp up clean, renewable energy like wind, solar and geothermal. We’ve already breached 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, and climate scientists now say we’re on a trajectory to an unlivable planet if we do not transition our energy sources away from fossil fuels.” Cowan Becker said people need to educate themselves on fracking, methane emissions and climate change and urge lawmakers at local, state and federal levels to create energy policy that will allow the survival of the planet and humankind.

Utica Oil: EOG's New Downspacing Test Came on With 1,108 Bbl/d | Hart Energy --EOG Resources’ five-well, 700-ft downspacing Utica oil test came on with more than 72,000 bbl in its first 13 days online, according to new data from Ohio state files. The pad, Shadow CBR07 in Carroll County, is near EOG’s four-well, 1,000-ft spaced Timberwolf CBN16, which came online in August 2023. Shadow’s five wells’ total 72,022 bbl, averaging 1,108 bbl/d, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources well files. At Timberwolf, the first three of its wells produced 137,632 bbl in their first 37 days, averaging 1,239 bbl/d each. A fourth well was turned into sales four months later for 658 bbl/d its first three months. Through June 30, Timberwolf has produced 919,551 bbl, averaging nearly 740 bbl/d per each of the four wells in their combined 1,243 days online. EOG is expected to provide an update on the Shadow pad and other Ohio results during its third-quarter earnings call in the coming weeks. The operator’s roughly 445,000 net acres, which are more than 90% HBP in the Utica’s volatile oil window, span a roughly 140-mile north-south stretch through eastern Ohio. EOG also owns the minerals under 135,000 of the net acres. Six of Ohio’s Top 10 oil wells in the second quarter were made by privately held Encino Energy, including its four Sproul TC RSH pad wells in Tuscarawas County, according to the Ohio DNR. In their first 80 days online, the wells surfaced 507,712 bbl, averaging about 1,587 bbl/d each. Separately, privately held Encino’s new four-well Sparkman GY CEN pad in Guernsey County made 383,773 bbl in its first 78 days, averaging 1,230 bbl/d each. In particular, Sparkman #1H surfaced 109,110 bbl, averaging 1,399 bbl/d, and the #205H made 105,349, averaging 1,351 bbl/d. Another new pad—the five-well Dutch Valley 7-5-1—produced 528,288 bbl, averaging 733 bbl/d since it was brought online in March. In Columbiana County, Encino’s four-well Lehwald CL BUT pad that came online at year-end 2023 has produced 455,729 bbl, averaging 633 bbl/d through June 30. In Harrison County, its four-well SHC Enterprises HN MON pad that came on in the fourth-quarter of 2023, produced 790,963 bbl through June 30, averaging 821 bbl/d per each of the well’s first eight months online. One of the wells in particular, the #4H, made 224,133 of the barrels, averaging 930 bbl/d in its first 241 days. Its first-two-months production averaged 1,498 bbl/d. In addition, Encino’s four-well Williams CR MON, which came online in October 2022 in Carroll County, made 1.57 MMbbl through this past June 30, averaging 616 bbl/d per well. Also privately held, Infinity Natural Resources brought on Ohio’s No. 3 oil producer of the second quarter: Casper #5HU in Carroll County with 1,361 bbl/d in its first 88 days online. Infinity turned to sales the state’s No. 9 well also: Casper #1HU with an 88-day average of 1,112 bbl/d. The four-well Casper pad’s two additional wells—Casper #3HU and #7HU—brought the pad’s first-88-day average to 1,085 bbl/d per well, according to the Ohio DNR. NGP- and Pearl Energy Investments-backed Infinity began leasing in Ohio in 2021 and has amassed 60,000 net Utica acres. It filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 4 to go public. Another private producer—Ascent Resources, which has mostly focused on the Utica’s adjacent NGL and dry-gas windows in far eastern Ohio—took the No. 6 position with the Slabaugh W RCH GR #1H. The Guernsey County well produced 1,158 bbl/d in the quarter’s 91 days, according to the Ohio DNR well files. The #1H had already been online for 42 days, making 54,604 bbl in February and March. Its first-133-day output through June 30 was 159,980 bbl, averaging 1,203 bbl/d. It and the #3H and #5H in the three-well Slabaugh pad produced 414,711 bbl in their combined first 395 days online, averaging 1,050 bbl/d each. Also in Guernsey County, Ascent brought on its four-well Caston NE LND GR pad in the second quarter, producing 1,117 bbl/d per well in their first 70 days online. Nearby, Ascent turned into sales five new Donna wells—#1H, #3H, #5H, #7H and #9H—averaging 1,090 bbl/d each in their first 47 days online. A three-well pad it brought online in August and September of 2023—the Jackalope NE #5H and Jackalope NW #1H and #3H in Guernsey County—produced 727,861 bbl through this past June 30, with each of the three wells averaging 802 bbl/d. With the adjacent three-well Jackalope S, SE and SW pad, the six-well development has produced 1.58 MMbbl, averaging 782 bbl/d. Its three-well Wampum RC GR pad in Guernsey County has produced 809,838 bbl since coming online in March of 2023, averaging 596 bbl/d each and, in their first three months online, averaging 1,212 bbl/d each.

More petrochemical leaks likely, UC professor says – WVXU --Petrochemical leaks have harmed communities in Ohio over the past few years — and they’re likely to continue happening as the oil and gas industry grows.University of Cincinnati Environmental Science Professor Amy Townsend-Small says it is common for trains traveling through towns to be transporting chemicals made from oil and gas.The train car that leaked in Whitewater Township last week was carrying an oil-derived chemical called styrene. Similarly, the vinyl chloride spilled from a tanker in East Palestine was made from oil.Production of the oil and gas used to make these chemicals is on the rise. Last year, the U.S. produced more crude oil than any country, ever, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.“That's been helpful in making the United States less reliant on foreign oil and gas, helped bring down gasoline prices, energy prices for home heating, things like that,” Townsend-Small said. “It's also spurred more production of plastics, which are made from oil and natural gas.”In eastern Ohio, several plastics manufacturing plants are being built near natural gas fracking operations, according to reporting from Inside Climate News.“Nobody really wants natural gas pipelines being built, so that's how they're accommodating all this excess natural gas, by making plastics,” Townsend-Small said.There are also plastics manufacturers near Cincinnati, like the INEOS facility where the styrene-leaking tanker was headed to.So, as more oil and gas is produced and transported to plastics manufacturers via truck, train and barge, the likelihood of leaks increase. That’s why Townsend-Small says petrochemical spills, like the styrene leak, will probably happen again.Nearly 100 community members showed up to a joint meeting of the Whitewater and Miami Township boards of trustees Tuesday night, almost a week after many had evacuated their homes because of the styrene leak.Several people asked the same question as one Whitewater Township resident: “What can we do to prevent the toxic tank to be parked that close to the school, water and community?”Brian Stussie, a representative of the Central Railroad of Indiana, said the company had to move all goods and products for everybody, including hazardous material. He cited freight railroads’ “common carrier obligation.”Increased regulation of the rail industry could improve safety measures. Following the train derailment in East Palestine, U.S. senators introduced the bipartisan Railway Safety Act of 2023.

Water Worries re Water Used for Fracking During Ohio Drought - Parts of Ohio (like other areas in the northeast) have experienced a moderate drought over the past several months. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) manages ten lakes and four dry dams in southeastern Ohio for purposes of flood control, recreation, and conservation. One of its biggest customers for water sales is the shale oil and gas industry. With the ongoing drought, MWCD recently stopped water sales from Atwood Lake, a popular boating and fishing spot southeast of Canton that has experienced a foot-and-a-half drop in water levels over the past few months. It is the only location where MWCD has had to stop water sales.

DEP Issues Violations To 3 Shale Gas Drillers For Failing To Report Fracking Chemicals, Including At EQT’s Lumber Well Pad In Greene County -- The Department of Environmental Protection issued notices of violation to EQT Production Company in Greene County, Range Resources-Appalachia, LLC in Washington County and Greylock Production LLC (unknown location) last week for failing to report chemicals used in fracking shale gas wells. All three violations involved situations where the companies listed chemicals as “proprietary,” but failed to submit those chemicals under separate, confidential cover to DEP as required by law. These violations follow violations DEP issued on September 8, 2024, to Apex Energy (PA) LLC for failing to submit a list of fracking chemicals used to frack 37 shale gas wells in Salem and Hempfield Townships, Westmoreland County between March 20, 2018 and February 17, 2024. Read more here. The new violations include--

• -- On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to EQT Production Company for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking eight shale gas wells at the Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad in Springhill Township, Greene County. DEP said the violations occurred on April 22, 2024. The well owner was asked to submit a response to the violation by October 10, 2024. The Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad is at the center of a dispute with the surrounding community over whether a “frack-out” of a well at that pad caused the contamination of private water supplies in 2022. On November 29, 2023 the Environmental Hearing Board accepted a settlement agreement between the Department of Environmental Protection and EQT Production Company involving appeals of DEP actions related to a June 19, 2022 frack-out and the Lumber and Spleen Splitter shale gas well pads both in Springhill Township, Greene County. Read more here. DEP said it could not determine if the EQT fracking caused the contamination of the nearby water supply wells. Read more here. On September 10, 2024, WESA reported EQT Corporation is facing accusations from Greene County residents in a class-action lawsuit filed this summer.The complaint, filed June 20, alleges the company’s natural gas drilling operations in New Freeport contaminated the community’s groundwater aquifers in June 2022. Read more here.
• -- On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to Range Resources-Appalachia, LLC for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking one shale gas well at the Brownlee Kelley 12333 Unit Shale Gas Well Pad in Hopewell Township,Washington County. DEP said the violations occurred on March 19, 2024. The well owner was asked to submit a response to the violation by October 10, 2024. On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to Greylock Production LLC for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking.The company said some chemicals were listed as “proprietary,” but failed to submit those chemicals under separate, confidential cover to DEP. Since this notice of violation was not available online, the location and the name of the shale gas wells cited were not available.To find documentation of DEP’s NOV search DEP’s Oil & Gas Compliance Database for September 26, 2024 and Greylock Production LLC.

The Derrick: PUC Considering Emergency Order To Have Aqua Pennsylvania Take Over 6 Rhodes Estate Water Companies [Fallout Continues From Conventional Oil Well Wastewater Spill 15 Months Ago In Venango County] - On October 10, The Derrick reported that on October 8, a draft emergency order was filed with Public Utility Commission Administrative Law Judge Mark A. Hoyer to appoint a temporary receiver to operate six Rhodes Estate water companies as a result of the resignation of the certified water system operators. The Venango Water Company supplying water to the Village of Reno is already operated by Aqua Pennsylvania under a PUC receivership order issued on August 11, 2023 due to contamination of one of its water sources by a wastewater spill from a conventional oil well owned by Petro Erie, Inc. [Read more here]The draft order was filed by the Office of Consumer Advocate and the PUC Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement who are parties in the PUC hearing on the future of the Venango Water Company and the six other Rhodes Estate water companies that started this past July. According to the draft order, Randall and Kevin Rhodes gave notice to parties in the case they would be resigning their positions as certified water system operators effective October 31. Without a certified system operator “it is likely that the Rhodes Utilities will cease providing water and wastewater service to its customers on November 1, 2024,” according to the draft order. The Rhodes Estate water utilities include the Sugarcreek Water Company, West Hickory Water Company, Plumer Water Company, Fryburg Water Company, Cooperstown Water Company, and Blaine E. Rhodes Sewer Company, in addition to the Venango Water Company.. Since “it appears that the Rhodes Utilities do not have a plan that would result in the hiring of a certified operator by November 1,” the draft order requests the Commission to name Aqua Pennsylvania as the receiver to also operate the six other Rhodes Estate water companies. The order suggests a schedule for considering the emergency receivership order that would result in a decision by October 23. Judge Hoyer has scheduled a telephone hearing on the draft emergency order for October 15 at 10:00 a.m.

EPA Files $4.2 Million Settlement Of Air Pollution Violations For 2019 Philadelphia Refinery Explosion, Fire; Public Comments Invited -On October 8, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the federal government has settled its final federal Clean Air Act (CAA) claim against Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing, LLC pertaining to the June 21, 2019 fire and explosion at its former South Philadelphia refinery. EPA alleged that the company violated CAA section 112(r) which requires facility owners and operators to ensure that regulated and other extremely hazardous substances are managed safely. Specifically, EPA alleged that PES violated CAA 112(r) and implementing regulations found at 40 C.F.R. Part 68, which requires facilities to identify and assess the hazards posed by regulated substances, develop an accident prevention program to reduce the risk of accidental releases, and develop an emergency response program. According to EPA, the company violated these requirements by, among other things, failing to ensure that its refining operations, particularly the hydrofluoric acid unit, were designed, built, and operated in accordance with recognized and generally accepted good engineering practices. The proposed $4.2 million settlement, filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court represents the largest CAA 112(r) penalty EPA has ever imposed for a single incident. EPA has three previous settlements with PES from 2020, one regarding CAA Renewable Fuel Standards, one for compliance issues related to a prior CAA Consent Decree, and the other for recovery of EPA costs related to the refinery’s explosion and fire under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. The proposed settlement in which PES did not admit liability will have a 30-day public notice and comment period and require final court approval. If approved by the court as an allowed general unsecured claim in the PES bankruptcy matter, the penalty will be paid pursuant to a court-approved bankruptcy reorganization plan. Any monies collected will go to the U.S. Department of Treasury. The former refinery no longer stands or operates at the South Philadelphia location. The current owners intend to use the property as a warehouse distribution center.

20 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 30 – Oct 6 | Marcellus Drilling News There were 20 permits issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica for the week of Sept. 30 - Oct. 6, down eight from the 28 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had eight new permits, with five going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy following a merger with Chesapeake) in both Susquehanna and Wyoming counties. The other three permits went to Laurel Mountain Energy for a pad in Butler County. ASCENT RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | LAUREL MOUNTAIN ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY |WEEKLY PERMITS | WYOMING COUNTY (PA)

Woodside Acquisition of Tellurian, Driftwood LNG Heads Toward Finish Line with Shareholder Approval Tellurian Inc. shareholders have agreed to accept the acquisition of the firm, and its 27.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) Driftwood LNG project, by Woodside Energy Group Ltd., bringing the Australian energy giant a step closer to expanding its North American strategy. The Houston-based company disclosed Friday that a majority of shareholders approved the merger agreement in a transaction valued at $1.2 billion, including debt. With stockholder approval, Woodside has guided that the deal could be closed by the end of the year, pending regulatory confirmation. “Woodside is a highly credible operator, with better access to financial resources and a greater ability to manage offtake risk, and I am confident it is the right developer to take Driftwood forward,” Executive Chairman Martin Houston said in a July letter to shareholders.

Driftwood LNG Renamed to Woodside Louisiana LNG with Closure of Tellurian Merger Tellurian Inc.’s long-proposed LNG export facility is moving forward under a new name after Woodside Energy Group Ltd. closed its $1.2 billion acquisition of the Houston company and its Louisiana project. The 27.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) liquefied natural gas project currently under early-site work near Lake Charles, LA, has been renamed to Woodside Louisiana LNG from Driftwood LNG, the Australian energy giant disclosed Tuesday. “This is a major growth opportunity that significantly expands our U.S. LNG position, enabling us to better serve global customers and capture further marketing optimization opportunities across both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins,” Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill said.

US natgas prices drop 4% to one-week low ahead of Hurricane Milton (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Monday on expectations Hurricane Milton will cut the amount of gas power generators need to burn later this week by knocking out electricity service to potentially millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Milton will slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm late on Wednesday before sweeping across the central part of the state by Thursday morning. Those Florida outages will add to the over 200,000 homes and businesses still without power in the Carolinas and Georgia since Hurricane Helene moved inland after slamming into Florida on Sept. 26. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $2.746 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Sept. 26. But with gas futures up in five of the past six weeks, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a fifth week in a row to their highest since June, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. One factor that has supported prices in recent weeks - the front-month has gained about 41% over the past six weeks - was a drop in the amount of fuel utilities have injected into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season. Storage builds in July, August and September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 20 of the past 21 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 5% above normal levels for this time of year due to low heating demand during the mild winter of 2023-2024. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will ease from 96.4 bcfd this week to 96.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to an average of 12.2 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance, which will likely end later this week.

US natgas prices fall 3% to 1-week low as Hurricane Milton targets Florida (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a one-week low on Wednesday on expectations power generators would burn less gas after Hurricane Milton knocks out power to potentially millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Milton will slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm on Wednesday night before sweeping across the central part of the state on Thursday. Milton has already caused about 48,000 homes and business to lose power in Florida. Those outages will add to the roughly 118,000 customers still without electric service in North Carolina and Georgia since Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26. In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us. That means every 1 million in customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.3 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $2.660 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26 for a fourth day in a row. That was the first time the contract dropped for four days in a row since late August. During that time, it was down about 11%. One factor that has weighed on futures prices all year has been low spot or next-day prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana. The spot market has traded below front-month futures for 168 out of 194 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were down about 5% to $2.39 per mmBtu for Wednesday. Analysts have noted that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.

Natural Gas Prices Digesting Damage from Hurricane Milton - Natural gas prices are digesting the damage from Hurricane Milton in Sarasota Country, Tampa, and other areas caught in the band, Frederick J. Lawrence, the ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist told Rigzone in an exclusive interview late Thursday. “This hurricane compounded the losses already felt from Hurricane Helene and power restoration will obviously be a priority,” Lawrence told Rigzone. “Milton has caused lost power to at least 3.2 million homes and businesses thus far and will impact demand in the Gulf Coast region. Florida is the third largest consumer of electricity in the U.S. after California and Texas,” he added. Lawrence told Rigzone that the storm missed supply in the Gulf of Mexico but said the larger issue will be resupplying gasoline stations, adding that “Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the United States”. According to data on the GasBuddy website, 24.80 percent of gas stations in Florida were without fuel as of 10.30am ET on October 10. The site showed that 62.97 percent of stations in Tampa/St. Petersburg, 43.68 percent of stations in Sarasota, and 36.63 percent of stations in Fort Myers/Naples were without fuel as of 10.30am ET on Thursday. In another exclusive interview with Rigzone late Thursday, David Seduski, the Head of North American Gas at Energy Aspects, highlighted that Hurricane Milton’s “landfall and pass over Florida is going to cut the state’s gas power demand by up to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day for the next few days”. “The total impact is hard to judge, since it will depend on how quickly power outages can be restored. We are already seeing a sharp decline in the state’s gas demand because of the storm though,” he told Rigzone. A release posted on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ website on October 10 pointed out that, at around 8.30pm EDT on October 9, Hurricane Milton “made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour near Siesta Key in Sarasota County”. “Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing significant flooding and damaging winds near its path,” the release added. A fact sheet posted on the White House website on October 10 stated that, “before Hurricane Milton made landfall, the federal government pre-staged personnel and resources to ensure a robust and immediate response effort could begin once the storm passed”. “Following Hurricane Milton’s impact on Florida, the Biden-Harris administration is working alongside state and local officials to carry out life-saving response efforts,” it added. “As conditions on the ground begin to improve, first responders have begun assessing damage and assisting communities. The top response priorities include search and rescue, power restoration, route clearance, and debris clean-up,” it continued. The fact sheet highlighted that more than 50,000 workers from 42 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada “already are dedicated to the power restoration efforts”. In a statement posted on its website back in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that “atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90 percent probability of this result”. “2024 has only a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season,” it added at the time. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) website is no longer tracking Hurricane Milton. At the time of writing, the site is monitoring two weather disturbances in the Atlantic. These comprise Tropical Storm Leslie and an unnamed disturbance situated in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) did not activate its hurricane response team in response to Hurricane Milton. In September, BSEE activated its hurricane response team in response to two storms – Helene and Francine.

US natgas prices slide 2% to 2-week low on Hurricane Milton power outages (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a two-week low on Friday aspower generators burnedless gas after Hurricane Milton knocked out power to millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The price decline came despitea decline in output so far this monthand forecasts for the amountof gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to increase onceCove Point in Maryland returns to service, which could happen any day now. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.632 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26. For the week, the contract was down about 8% after sliding about 2% last week. Hurricane Milton slammed into the west coast of Florida as a major storm Wednesday night and swept across the central part of the state on Thursday. The storm has now dissipated in the Atlantic Ocean. There were still around 2.3 million customers without power in Florida from Milton on Friday, down from a high of around 3.4 million on Thursday. There were also still about 66,000 customers without power in North Carolina and Georgia after Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26. In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us. That means every 1 million customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.2 bcfdso far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly milder than normal through at least Oct. 26. But even though the weather will be mild, it is still turning seasonally cooler with the coming of winter. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance. That Cove Point outage could end soon. The company told customers it was seeking to purchase gas on Oct. 11, but also noted some gas flows would be restricted until further notice due to unplanned maintenance at the Pleasant Valley compressor station in Virginia.

Henry Hub Spot Prices to Average $3.10 in 2025 as U.S. LNG Capacity Increases, Says EIA -Henry Hub natural gas spot prices rose by 15% month/month in September and should continue to climb into 2025 on the back of more domestic LNG capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). NGI's Henry Hub daily and bidweek Henry Hub natural gas prices graphed alongside U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates for U.S. natural gas prices showing historical volatility. In the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for October, researchers noted that spot gas prices in September averaged $2.28/MMBtu, up from $1.98 in August. The rise in prices was partly attributed to Hurricane Francine, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast on Sept. 11, EIA researchers noted. About 53% of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) gas production was taken offline because of the storm.

Government Won't Sell New Oil Leases For The First Time Since 1958 - Despite gas prices still being high, the federal government hasn't held any new oil and gas lease sales this year—the last time this happened was in 1958. This means America is becoming more dependent on other countries for energy. Jay Young, founder and CEO of King Operating Corporation, told KTRH that this, of course, means higher prices. He said, "If you did not have horizontal drilling and fracking, this country would be so dependent on Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other countries that people would be walking everywhere." Young also said that this will make it harder for oil companies to secure investments because of the industry's volatility. He explained, "Pensions and teachers' retirements put hundreds of billions of dollars at risk. All the companies that put all the money at risk lost." He says they aren't likely to invest in the oil industry again. Young also warned that if Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November, don’t expect this situation to improve at all.

2 Dead After Chemical Leak at Pemex Houston Area Refinery | Rigzone --2 Dead After Chemical Leak at Pemex Houston Area Refinery -- Two people are dead and 35 are injured after a chemical release. Image by Sean Pavone via iStock Two people are dead and 35 are injured after a chemical release at a Houston area refinery owned by Mexico’s state oil company. The Deer Park plant halted some operations after the leak late yesterday, according to a statement from Petroleos Mexicanos. The workers who died were contractors and not Pemex employees, Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez Padilla said in a press conference Friday. “We were not able to recover the bodies until dawn due to the area remaining contaminated for a few hours,” Padilla said. The state-owned company has come under scrutiny in recent years for its poor safety record, which including a 2021 offshore platform accident that killed five, and numerous fires at its network of oil refineries. Pemex in 2022 acquired the Deer Park plant, which had been a joint venture between the state oil company and Shell Plc. The refinery shut at least three units following the leak, Padilla said. Among them were a coker that processes residual oil and a hydrotreater that removes sulfur from refined products.

NGO calls for more action to mitigate oil spill risk before production restart of pipeline connected to platform trio off California - Santa Barbara-based nonprofit Environmental Defense Center (EDC) has urged the government to postpone the restart of a pipeline in California that caused an oil spill nine years ago until the state provides access to all relevant documentation, conducts an environmental review, and enables public engagement to allow greater transparency into the plans made by Sable Offshore, a Texas-based oil company, to bring the pipeline back online and transport hydrocarbons produced at three offshore platforms linked to it. EDC and 13 legislators representing coastal communities sent letters to the state fire marshal seeking an environmental review as required by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) before authorizing the plan to restart the former Plains All-American pipeline on the Gaviota Coast.The pipeline’s rupture in 2015 caused the Refugio oil spill, deemed one of the worst oil spills in recent California history. According to Sable, the operation, including the pipeline, is planned to be restarted by the year’s end.“We have grave reservations regarding the restart of (the pipelines), which have already caused a catastrophic oil spill, and which Sable intends to restart without effective protection from corrosion,” the state legislators wrote in a letter spearheaded by State Senator Monique Limón. “The safety of these pipelines is a serious concern for many in our community, and it is important that the public is aware of the conditions of the pipelines and what is being done to make them operate safely.”As the approval process has been conducted behind closed doors with no opportunity for the public to review or comment on the restart plans, the letters also request that the fire marshal hold hearings and release documents related to the plan to allow public input.In 2015, the corroded Plains All-American pipeline ruptured near Refugio Beach. Based on EDC’s data, the spill destroyed 150 miles of the California coast and thousands of acres of shoreline and subtidal habitat, killed many animals, shut down fisheries, cost hundreds of millions to clean up, and resulted in criminal convictions for the former owner.According to a draft environmental impact report from Santa Barbara County, restarting the compromised pipeline would likely result in a spill every year, and a major rupture every four years. The county predicted that ruptures could be nearly twice the size of the Refugio spill, even if Sable installs modern safety valve technology.In response to a public records request by EDC, Sable sued the state and EDC in July to prevent the release of the company’s oil spill contingency plan. Despite being required to submit this document to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), Sable claimed this would compromise national security and the company’s trade secrets.The Sacramento County Superior Court ruled in favor of the state and EDC in August, giving access to Sable’s contingency plan. The NGO claims that the plan suggests that a worst-case spill from its onshore pipelines could be at least 14 times the volume of the Refugio spill. Furthermore, the document contains no plan to respond to another spill nor proof of the financial means to remedy one. “Should (the state Fire Marshal) approve the Restart Project, our clients and our community will bear the consequences,” EDC’s letter stated. “All we are asking for is a voice in a decision that will directly and substantially impact our community and the future of the Central Coast.” The pipelines and other equipment were formerly owned by ExxonMobil. The NGO claims that the operation – known as the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) – was responsible for more than half of Santa Barbara County’s total greenhouse gas emissions when operational. The SYU comprises an onshore oil and natural gas processing facility near Goleta, California, and three offshore platforms – Hondo, Heritage, and Harmony. The oil and gas are transported through a subsea pipeline and treated at the Las Flores Canyon oil and gas plant and the Pacific Offshore Pipeline Company (POPCO) gas plant, both located in Las Flores Canyon. The platforms are located 5 to 9 miles offshore in shallow water and service 112 wells, comprised of 90 producers, 12 injectors and 10 idle with well over 100 identified, undrilled opportunities. Before shut-in, the operations produced approximately 34 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d). The onshore facilities separated oil, propane, butane, sulfur products, and fuel-quality gas, with oil transferred to the All American Pipeline for final processing at a refinery. Since the pipeline was shut down in May 2015, SYU assets have not produced commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. According to Sable, if necessary permits are not obtained and production restarted by January 1, 2026, the assets are to be reverted to ExxonMobil under the terms ofthe purchase and sale agreement. On its part, the Texan player says it continued preparing for the restart of production by hiring additional employees and contracting repair crews to begin its anomaly repair program and other requirements necessary to meet conditions of the federal court consent decree on California pipelines Line 324 and Line 325 in cooperation with and under the supervision of the California Office of the State Fire Marshal (OSFM). While the fire marshal has the final say over whether Sable can restart its failed onshore pipeline, additional approvals are needed before the Texan player can restart the SYU, including from Santa Barbara County, the State Lands Commission, and the CDFW.

Illegal construction cited on Refugio oil spill pipeline -The California Coastal Commission is accusing the company that owns the Refugio Oil spill pipeline of doing unpermitted construction. The Coastal Commission first sent a violation letter in September, asking Sable Offshore Corp. to stop all work on the pipeline until it secured the proper coastal permits. Sable agreed, but last week, the Commission learned construction had not stopped. In a second letter, the Commission warned that it would issue a cease-and-desist order if the unpermitted work didn’t stop right away. A decade ago, this pipeline spilled over 100,000 gallons of oil that flowed into the ocean. Alex Helperin, an attorney for the Coastal Commission, said the permit rules are in place to protect the environment. “We've seen the consequences of a past failure of this pipeline. We need to be able to look at all the resources that could be affected if something were to go wrong here and to make sure that nothing does go wrong,” Helperin said. Sable Offshore Corp. said in a statement that it has moved crews out of the coastal zone and is complying with the Commission's requests. The pipeline has been shut down since the 2015 oil spill, but work is underway to reopen it. If construction continues in the coastal zone, Helperin said the Commission could take more action, including filing a lawsuit to seek penalties

U.S. Sends More Natural Gas to Brazil Amid Drought — Brazil’s LNG imports are on the rise as the country’s dry season nears an end. A drought has reduced hydroelectric production and forced the country to buy more spot liquefied natural gas cargoes. Imports hit 230,000 tons last week, above the four-week moving average of 150,000 tons and the highest level since November 2021, according to Kpler data. About 190,000 tons were delivered from the United States last week, while the rest came from Trinidad and Tobago, according to Kpler. Brazil’s dry season typically runs from May to November before rains set in and help to boost hydroelectric output each year.

Chevron Sells Canadian Oil Sands, Duvernay Shale Assets for $6.5B - Chevron’s indirect subsidiary Chevron Canada Ltd. said Oct. 7 that it and a related entity had entered into an agreement to sell interests in the Athabasca Oil Sands project and the Duvernay Shale to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.In exchange for Chevron Canada’s 20% interest in Athabasca and 70% interest in the Duvernay, the company will receive $6.5 billion cash. The assets subject to the agreement contributed 84,000 boe/d, net of royalties, to Chevron in 2023.Chevron has previously said it expected its Duvernay assets to fetch about $500 million, suggesting that the Athabasca assets made up the lion’s share of the sale price.The $6.5 billion all-cash transaction is in line with previously announced plans by the supermajor to divest between $10 billion and $15 billion in assets by 2028. Chevron is optimizing its global energy portfolio following the company’s pending acquisition of Hess Corp. for a $53 billion.The Hess deal remains on pause as Exxon Mobil and Chevron work through arbitration related to Hess’ offshore Guyana assets. The oil sands and Duvernay transactions have an effective date of Sept. 1, 2024, and is expected to close in fourth-quarter 2024, subject to regulatory approvals.

Colombia Reports Giant Offshore Find as Natural Gas Shortfall ‘Crisis’ Looms -Colombian state oil and gas firm Ecopetrol SA in partnership with Brazilian oil giant Petrobras SA have potentially struck it rich in the Caribbean Sea offshore Guajira. State-owned Petrobras said that the Sirius-1 and Sirius-2 developments offshore Guajira in Colombia could hold about 6 Tcf of natural gas, “confirming the magnitude of the discoveries made in the area and its importance for the Colombian gas market.” Ecopetrol officials said the find could meet 80% of Colombia’s natural gas demand.

TTF Rally Ends, but Middle East Tensions Keep Global Natural Gas Prices Elevated – LNG Recap European natural gas prices declined Monday in a sign futures contracts were overbought amid a rally last week that was sparked by escalating tensions in the Middle East. European Union Natural Gas Storage. The November Title Transfer Facility contract gave up about 3% on Monday to finish just under $13/MMBtu. TTF closed at its highest point all year on Friday, when it settled at $13.21 days after Iran attacked Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles. The contract charged higher most of last week, driven by a European market that’s still concerned about supply disruptions more than two years after Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off nearly all natural gas exports to the continent.

Another FSRU Enters Service in Europe as Winter Heating Season Gets Underway -- Greece’s first floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) entered service last week to serve central and Southeast Europe as the continent continues to diversify its natural gas supplies. Gastrade AE said the Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal started service on Oct. 1. It was sanctioned in January 2022 – just before Russia invaded Ukraine and later cut off most natural gas exports to Europe. The terminal includes an FSRU and pipelines that connect to Greece’s gas transmission system. The 5.5 billion cubic meter/year facility would import liquefied natural gas for delivery to Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine.

Global Natural Gas Demand Seen Hitting New Highs Amid Limited LNG Supply Growth -Worldwide natural gas demand is forecast to break records in 2024 and 2025, with modest growth in LNG supply driving tightness in the market, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). International Energy Agency's (IEA) bar chart showing global natural gas demand forecast changes from 2023 to 2024 for 2050. The global energy watchdog expects global gas demand in 2024 to grow by more than 2.5% to reach a record 4,200 billion cubic meters (Bcm), with the Asia Pacific region accounting for almost 45% of the growth. Researchers detailed their findings in IEA’s Global Gas Security Review, published earlier this month. North American gas consumption is forecast to rise by 1% year/year, “with growth primarily supported by the power sector,” the IEA team said. “In 2025 natural gas demand is projected to remain close to its 2024 levels.”

Exclusive: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy -- (Reuters) - BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm's energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.When unveiled in 2020, BP's strategy was the sector's most ambitious with a pledge to cut output by 40% while rapidly growing renewables by 2030. BP scaled back the target in February last year to a 25% reduction, which would leave it producing 2 million barrels per day at the end of the decade, as investors focused on near-term returns rather than the energy transition. The London-listed company is now targeting several new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost its oil and gas output, the sources said. Auchincloss, previously BP's finance head, has sought to distance himself from the approach of his predecessor Bernard Looney, who was sacked for lying about relationships with colleagues, vowing instead to focus on returns and investing in the most profitable businesses, first and foremost in oil and gas. The company continues to target net zero emissions by 2050."As Murray said at the start of year... the direction is the same – but we are going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, and higher value company," a BP spokesperson said. BP shares were up 0.8% by 0912 GMT.Rival Shell has also slowed down its energy transition strategy since CEO Wael Sawan took office in January, selling power and renewable businesses and scaling back projects including offshore wind, biofuels and hydrogen. The shift at both companies has come in the wake of a renewed focus on European energy security following the price shock sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.BP has invested billions in new low-carbon businesses and sharply reduced its oil and gas exploration team since 2020.But supply chain issues and sharp increases in costs and interest rates have put further pressure on the profitability of many renewables businesses. A company source said that while rivals had invested in oil and gas, BP had neglected exploration for a few years.BP is currently in talks to invest in three new projects in Iraq, including one in the Majnoon field, the sources said. BP holds a 50% stake in a joint venture operating the giant Rumaila oilfield in the south of the country, where it has been operating for a century.In August, BP signed an agreement with the Iraqi government to develop and explore the Kirkuk oilfield in the north of the country, which will also include building power plants and solar capacity. Unlike historic contracts which offered foreign companies razor-thin margins, the new agreements are expected to include a more generous profit-sharing model, sources have told Reuters.BP is also considering investing in the re-development of fields in Kuwait, the sources added.In the Gulf of Mexico, BP has announced it will go ahead with the development of Kaskida, a large and complex reservoir, and the company also plans to green light the development of the Tiber field. It will also weigh acquiring assets in the prolific Permian shale basin to expand its existing U.S. onshore business, which has expanded its reserves by over 2 billion barrels since acquiring the business in 2019, the sources said. Auchincloss, who in May announced a $2 billion cost saving drive by the end of 2026, has in recent months paused investment in new offshore wind and biofuel projects and cut the number of low-carbon hydrogen projects down to 10 from 30.

Oil spill expected from sunken HMNZ Manawainui -- Seventy-five crew members of the New Zealand Navy Ship, the HMNZS Manawanui were rescued after it ran aground and sank off the coast of Samoa's main island of Upolu over the weekend. The vessel was surveying the sea floor, just two kilometres from shore, when it ran into a reef on Saturday night and caught fire. Samoa's acting Prime Minister Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio said Samoa police assisted in the evacuation of 75 crew members who were later taken to the New Zealand High Commission in Apia. "A call was received from the rescue coordination centre in New Zealand that the crew would be abandoning ship and getting into life rafts," said the acting Prime Minister. "The Manawanui is not recoverable and has sunk into the sea...the possibility of an oil spill is highly probable," he added.

New Zealand Navy ship sinks near Samoa, raising oil spill fears - The Washington Post — A New Zealand navy ship sank one mile off the coast of Samoa on Sunday, prompting fears of an environmental and ecological disaster. The roughly $60 million ship, the HMNZS Manawanui, was conducting a hydrographic reef survey on Saturday when it ran aground near the southern coast of Upolu, Samoa, according to a statement released by the New Zealand navy. The cause of the accident is not yet known. An inquiry has been launched into what the navy said was its first peacetime loss of a vessel. The last naval ship loss was during World War II. The 75 personnel on board evacuated in life rafts and safely made it to the nearby shore with the help of rescuers, officials said. “The HMNZS Manawanui is not recoverable,” Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio, acting prime minister of Samoa, said in a statement posted to social media Sunday. The possibility of an oil spill occurring was highly likely, he said, and government agencies were beginning to conduct environmental impact assessments on the marine ecosystem.“The most immediate threat to the local reef ecosystem stems from the release of fuel oil which is likely already occurring,” Nick Ling, an associate professor of science at the University of Waikato in New Zealand, said in an email. Recovery efforts will be challenging, he said, “given the exposed nature of the site and the dangers for any salvage vessels working in such close proximity to the reef.” Chris Battershill, a professor and coastal science expert at the same university, said ship hulls can be “quite damaging” to fragile coral reef systems — particularly if they’re painted with older varieties of antifouling paint, used to deter marine pests, which can contain tin and other toxic materials. The ship has come to rest about 500 feet from the ocean surface — a depth that means it is less likely to be disturbed by future storms, exacerbating any existing hull damage. But that depth also makes salvage efforts more difficult, Battershill said. “Crew may need decompression chambers, and there’s only a narrow window of time to seal any fuel leaks,” he wrote in the publication the Conversation.

CNOOC Started Production in Seven Oil and Gas Projects in 2024 - CNOOC Ltd. has begun production in the Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield Development Project in central Bohai Bay, the seventh oil and gas project put onstream by the Chinese state-backed company this year. The oil and gas explorer and producer expects the project to reach 18,800 barrels of heavy crude per day in peak production in 2025. CNOOC Ltd., majority-owned by China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), aims to commission 59 development wells in the project, 34 of which would be for production. “Smart engineering and standardized construction have remarkably reduced the project’s construction cycle”, CNOOC said in a press release. “It has strongly promoted the efficient development of offshore oil and gas resources and laid a solid foundation for the production growth in the Bohai oilfields, the largest crude oil production base in China”. Bozhong 19-2 has an average water depth of about 20 meters (65.6 feet). The production facilities include a new central processing platform and four unmanned wellhead platforms. CNOOC Ltd. is the sole owner. Late last month CNOOC Ltd. put online the Shenhai-1 Phase II Natural Gas Development Project in the northern South China Sea. It expects the Qiongdongnan Basin project to reach 162 million cubic feet and 3,931 barrels of condensate per day in peak production in 2025. CNOOC Ltd. aims to commission 12 development wells in the second-phase project. “The project has successfully overcome the world-class challenge of deepwater high-pressure oil and gas reservoir development”, CNOOC Ltd. chair Wang Dongjin said in a statement September 27. “It witnesses effective large-scale conversion of reserves into production from the ‘South China Sea trillion-cubic-meters-level gas region’, and provides stable supply of clean energy for the economic and social development of South China. “In the future, CNOOC Limited will accelerate the development of new quality productivity of marine energy and strengthen the exploration and development of deepwater oil and gas resources, thereby further contributing to the high-quality development of China’s offshore oil industry”. Shenhai 1 started operation June 2021 using the world's first deepwater semi-submersible oil production and storage platform, according to the 100 percent operator. The second-phase project has an average water depth of about 900 meters (2,952.8 feet). The production facilities include a new fixed production platform and three centralized subsea wellheads. Earlier in September CNOOC Ltd. said the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 Oilfield Secondary Development Project in the eastern South China Sea had started production. It expects the project, which consists of oilfields Liuhua 4-1 and Liuhua 11-1, to reach around 17,900 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boed) in peak output in 2026. CNOOC Ltd. aims to commission 32 wells in the project. Liuhua 11-1/4-1 is the first oil project in Asia “to be developed with the 'Deepwater Jacket Platform + Cylindrical FPSO' mode”, CNOOC Ltd. chief executive and president Zhou Xinhuai said in a media release September 19. The production facilities include a new deepwater jacket platform and a cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit. Liuhua 11-1/4-1 has an average water depth of around 305 meters (1,000.7 feet). “While revitalizing the deepwater oilfields with original oil in place over 100 million tons, the new mode has substantially reduced the construction and production costs”, Zhou said. “It provides a Chinese solution for the efficient development of similar deepwater oil and gas fields”. CNOOC Ltd., listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is the sole developer. On September 4 it said it had started up the Wushi 17-2 Oilfields Development Project, located in the Beibu Gulf in water depths of approximately 28 meters (91.9 feet) on average. CNOOC Ltd. expects the project to achieve about 9,900 boed in peak production 2026. It plans to commission 43 development wells, 28 of which would be production wells. CNOOC Ltd. operates the project with an 80 percent interest. Before the four projects put onstream over the last two months, CNOOC Ltd. started up three projects in 2024: the Suizhong 36-1/Luda 5-2 Oilfield Secondary Adjustment and Development Project, the Bozhong 19-6 Gas Field 13-2 Block 5 Well Site Development Project and the Wushi 23-5 Oilfields Development Project. “Technological breakthroughs made the Company more competitive in the market”, CNOOC Ltd. said in a financial report August 28. “Progress in exploration theory and technology guided the discovery of multiple oil and gas fields such as Lingshui 36-1, Bozhong 8-3 South and Longkou 7-1. “In terms of development and construction, Liuhua 11-1/4-1 Oilfield Secondary Development Project adopted the innovative mode of ‘deep-water jacket platform + cylindrical FPSO’, creating a brand-new solution for the efficient development of deepwater oil and gas fields in offshore China. “For drilling and completion, the Company drilled an ultra-deep extra extended reach well in Enping 21-4 oilfield, the first one of its type, setting new records for the deepest offshore drilling depth and horizontal length in offshore China. The well would significantly improve production efficiency of the project”. On September 10 CNOOC Ltd. declared “the first major exploration breakthrough in ultra-deepwater carbonate rocks offshore China” after drilling nearly 3,000 meters (9,842.5 feet) deep into the Pearl River Mouth Basin. The well sits in a water depth of nearly 1,640 meters (5,380.6 feet) in the Baiyun Sag, the biggest hydrocarbon sag in the Pearl River Mouth Basin according to the company. The total depth was nearly 4,400 meters (14,435.7 feet). "Previously, exploration in China's ultra-deepwater areas mainly focused on clastic rocks”, the company’s chief geologist, Xu Changgui, said then. “The success of this well has, for the first time, revealed the enormous potential of carbonate rocks in China’s ultra-deep waters, marking significant breakthroughs in both exploration understanding and operational techniques”. In the first half of 2024 CNOOC Ltd. produced 362.6 million boe, a 9.3 percent year-on-year increase and the company’s highest production in the January–June period.

The Conflict in the Middle East Continuing to Drive the Market Higher - The crude market on Monday continued to add to the previous week’s gains with the conflict in the Middle East continuing to drive the market higher. The market posted a low of $73.62 soon after it opened before it bounced off that level and never looked back as the market weighed the threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East on the first anniversary of Hamas’ October 7^th attacks against Israel, which led to its retaliation in Gaza. The oil market extended its gains to over 3.8% as it traded to $77.22 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up $2.76 at $77.14 before it rallied to a high of $77.40 in the post settlement period. Meanwhile, the Brent market traded over the $80 level for the first time since August, posting a high of $81.08. The December Brent contract settled up $2.88 at $80.93. The product markets remained well supported as well, with the heating oil market settling up 8.35 cents at $2.3962 and the RB market settling up 5.8 cents at $2.1538. On Monday, Hamas’ armed wing attacked Israel’s Tel Aviv with a missile salvo. The Israeli military said sirens were sounded in central Israel. Meanwhile, Hezbollah rockets hit Israel’s third largest city Haifa early on Monday as the country looked poised to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza War. The growing conflict has raised fears that the United States and Iran will be sucked into a wider war in the oil-producing Middle East. Israel’s military, in a statement, said five rockets were launched at Haifa from Lebanon. It said 15 other rockets were fired inland at Tiberias in Israel’s northern Galilee region, some of them intercepted.Chevron said all personnel from its Blind Faith platform in the Gulf of Mexico have been transported and the facility has been shut in ahead of Hurricane Milton. It said production from its other Gulf of Mexico assets remain at normal levels.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 873,000 bpd of capacity offline in the week ending October 11^th, increasing available refining capacity by 383,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 795,000 bpd in the week ending October 18^th. Energy giant Shell warned Monday it expects to post a sharp drop in its refining margins for the third quarter of 2024 as a result of a slump in global demand for refined products. It sees its refining margin of just $5.5 per barrel down from $7.70 per barrel in the second quarter. Shell noted its downward revision was the result of a slowdown in China’s economy and a slump in the European industrial sector as well as increased supply of products coming out of the Middle East as new refineries come online.Sable Offshore said it was expecting to restart the Santa Ynez oil and gas pipeline off California’s coast by the end of the year after it was shut for nearly a decade following a major oil leak. However, the company cautioned that there was no assurance it would obtain the necessary permits to restart the pipeline. The Santa Ynez unit includes three offshore oil platforms, an onshore processing facility and a pipeline off the coast of California, connecting the Santa Barbara Channel to the Las Flores Canyon liquids storage terminal.

U.S. crude oil jumps more than 3%, closes above $77 as market waits for Israel strike against IranU.S. crude oil jumped more than 3% on Monday, as the market waited for Israel to strike Iran. Oil prices spiked last week on fears that Israel could hit Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack.U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 9.09% last week for the biggest weekly gain since March 2023. Global benchmark Brent jumped 8.43% for the largest weekly advance since January 2023. Here are Monday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $77.14 per barrel, up $2.76, or 3.71%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained more than 7%.
• Brent December contract: $80.93 per barrel, up $2.88, or 3.69%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead about 5%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.1538 per gallon, up 2.77%. Year to date, gasoline has advanced more than 2%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.746 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.78%. Year to date, gas is ahead more than 9%.

President Joe Biden on Friday discouraged Israel from striking Iranian oil facilities, after prices jumped about 5% a day earlier when the president suggested the U.S. was discussing the possibility of such an attack. Biden has also said he opposes Israel hitting Iran's nuclear facilities. It's still unclear what form Israeli retaliation will take, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The impact on the oil market would be significant if Israel struck Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's crude exports pass, Croft said."We do really have to see what the Israelis hit, what would the Iranian response mechanism be" Croft told CNBC's"Worldwide Exchange" on Monday. "But certainly we have not been closer to a regional war in a long time."The market right now is only pricing in the possibility of Israel striking Iran's oil facilities but that is not the worst-case scenario, Alan Gelder, vice president of oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. The worst-case scenario is a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude exports flow, Gelder said. Iran might target the strait in response to an Israeli strike, which would have a far more dramatic effect on crude prices, the analyst said. The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has now ground on for a year with no end in sight. The conflict has increasingly escalated into a multifront war in the Middle East. Israel is battling Hezbollah in Lebanon and has struck Houthi militants in Yemen, in relation for rocket attacks by those groups. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are allied with Iran. The war in the Middle East has not led to a disruption of crude supplies so far, but analysts warn the risk is rising the longer the conflict continues.

Oil Prices Plunge as China Fails to Deliver New Stimulus - Oil plunged as China’s top economic planner ended a highly anticipated briefing on Tuesday without new stimulus measures, sparking a risk-off mood across markets. Global benchmark Brent crude and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate both lost 4.6%, snapping five-session rallies. China’s National Development and Reform Commission said it’s confident the country will reach its economic targets this year, but the lack of new spending disappointed investors. “The disappointment — for traders expecting to see new fiscal spending — is what has tamped down on most commodity prices today.” said Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie. Still, the oil market remains susceptible to a flare-up in the Middle East. Traders are watching for Israel’s retaliation against Iran following a missile attack last week, which raised concerns of an all-out war. Crude pared some of its earlier losses midday after NBC reported that Israel is still considering striking Iran’s energy facilities, among a number of options. Iron ore and base metals slumped following the NDRC’s comments, and Hong Kong shares had their worst day since 2008, falling almost 10%. Chinese officials said that they would speed up spending while largely reiterating plans to boost investment. Oil demand from China, the world’s top crude importer, has been a major cause for concern among investors, and prices slumped in the third quarter largely due to those worries. With crude rallying more than $7 a barrel since Iran first launched missiles at Israel, some investors are also likely booking profits as markets await new developments, traders said. “After the recent massive rally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Geopolitical premiums tend to fade as fewer headlines emerge, even when underlying risks remain present.” WTI for November delivery declined 4.6% to settle at $73.57 a barrel. Brent for December settlement dropped 4.6% to $77.18 a barrel. Israel, meanwhile, escalated fighting against Iran-backed groups, keeping the market on edge. On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said a fourth army division is being deployed into Lebanon a week after the start of a ground operation against Hezbollah, and that about 135 projectiles were fired by the Iran-backed militia into Israel. The Middle East accounts for a third of global crude supply, and President Joe Biden has sought to discourage Israel from attacking Tehran’s oil fields. Israel’s defense minister is set to travel to Washington as the country weighs how to respond to Iran’s attack. A gauge of implied volatility for Brent remains near the highest in a year. There’s been a deluge of call options — which profits buyers when futures gain — and prices have also closed above some key long-term moving averages. “In the short term, the risk is for higher prices,” Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. While speculative net bets on rising Brent prices are near record lows, “we have lots of supply risks potentially in Iran,” he added.

Energy Companies Began Shutting Down Their Pipelines in Tampa - The crude market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day, as it continued on its upward trend in follow through strength seen on Monday before it sold off on profit taking. The market quickly rallied to a high of $78.46 on the opening overnight. However, the market just as quickly erased its gains on concerns over China’s economy as traders were disappointed after China’s top economic planner ended a briefing on Tuesday without announcing new stimulus measures to spur growth in the sluggish economy. The oil market continued to trend lower and extended its losses to $4.45 as it posted a low of $72.69 in afternoon trading. The market was also pressured by the reports that Hezbollah left the door open to a ceasefire with Israel. The crude market later retraced some of its sharp losses ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled down $3.57 at $73.57 and the December Brent contract settled down $3.75 at $77.18. The product markets also ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market ending the session down 9.9 cents at $2.2972 and the RB market settling down 8.57 cents at $2.0681. The EIA estimated in its Short Term Energy Outlook that world petroleum demand in 2024 will increase by 920,000 bpd to 103.06 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate and expects demand to increase by 1.2 million bpd to 104.3 million bpd in 2025, up 0.29% from a previous estimate of 104.6 million bpd. World oil output is forecast to increase by 500,000 bpd to 102.5 million bpd in 2024, up 0.29% from a previous estimate of 102.2 million bpd, while output in 2025 is forecast to increase by 2 million bpd to 104.5 million bpd, down 0.1% from a previous estimate of 104.6 million bpd. U.S. oil output is forecast to increase by 290,000 bpd to 13.22 million bpd in 2024, down 0.23% from a previous forecast of 13.25 million bpd and output in 2025 is expected to increase by 320,000 bpd to 13.54 million bpd, which is down 0.95% from a previous estimate of 13.67 million bpd. Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand in 2024 is forecast at 20.3 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate. Demand in 2025 is forecast to increase by 200,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd, which is down 0.49% from a previous forecast. Israel’s Defense Minister said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had been “eliminated”. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made the announcement about Hashem Safieddine as Israel began ground operations in southwest Lebanon, expanding its incursions to a new zone, and as Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire. Energy companies began shutting down their pipelines and fuel-delivery terminals in Tampa, Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton. Kinder Morgan Inc shutdown its pipelines that are part of its central Florida pipeline system and closed all terminals in the Tampa area in response to Hurricane Milton. Citgo also shut down its Tampa terminal as Hurricane Milton approaches the Florida coast. Buckeye has suspended operations at its Tampa terminal facilities on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an increasing number of gasoline retailers were running out of fuel on Tuesday amid some panic buying ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall. According to GasBuddy, as many as 15.8% of Florida’s gasoline stations had run out of fuel on Tuesday morning.

Crude prices slide over 4% on possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire (Reuters) - Oil prices slid on Tuesday, settling down more than 4% on news of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, although prices found some support on fears of a potential attack on Iranian oil infrastructure. Brent crude futures settled down $3.75, or 4.63%, at $77.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures finished down $3.57, or 4.63%, at $73.57 a barrel. At their session lows, both were down more than $4 a barrel. "This morning, we heard about the potential ceasefire. Then we got indications targets are still being dialed in and energy targets are in the mix." "That Hezbollah is open to a ceasefire, is the kind of headline that people jump on," "There should be a lot of volatility up and down on this conflict."On Monday, Brent rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since August after more than a 3% daily gain. That followed the largest weekly gain in over a year, roughly 8%, in the week to Friday on rising concerns of a spreading war in the Middle East.Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire after Israeli forces raised the stakes in the conflict with its Iran-backed enemy by making new incursions in the south of Lebanon. Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had also been eliminated. Late on Tuesday, Israel's military warned people away from specific buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut.The oil price rally began after Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel on Oct. 1. Israel has sworn to retaliate and said it was weighing its options. Some analysts said an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure was unlikely and warned oil prices could face considerable downward pressure if Israel focuses on any other target. In the U.S., Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm on its way to Florida after forcing at least one oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico to shut on Monday. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 11 million barrels last week, while fuel stockpiles fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 10.96 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 557,000 barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.60 million barrels, they said.

Oil Prices Decline as Traders Take Profits In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, George Pavel, General Manager at Capex.com Middle East, said oil prices declined on Tuesday as traders took profits following a sharp rally that had pushed prices to their highest levels in over a month. “The recent surge was mainly driven by fears of potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East due to recent attacks involving Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel’s response,” Pavel said in the analysis. “While geopolitical tensions remain high, the market appears to be pricing in a low likelihood of direct attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure. OPEC’s spare production capacity is also giving confidence that any potential shortages could be managed,” he added. Pavel also noted in the analysis that, on the demand side, concerns about slow growth in China have contributed to the cautious outlook for oil. “Traders are also keeping an eye on upcoming U.S. inflation data and crude oil inventory reports,” he said, adding that “a rise in crude could further pressure prices if they indicate weaker demand”. “Whilst geopolitical tensions could still create volatility, the market may experience a bearish trend in the near term as market participants digest recent gains and reconsider supply and demand dynamics,” Pavel stated in the analysis. He went on to note, however, that “any significant escalation in geopolitical risks or unexpected strength in demand could provide further upside momentum for crude prices”. In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Tuesday, Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, highlighted that “oil prices aren’t rising again today”. “That’s not because peace has broken out in the Mid-East. In fact, peace seems more elusive,” he said in the report. “Ominously, Israel’s defense minister is in the U.S. this week, ostensibly to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s attack of last week. The visit may mean there’ll be no response until those discussions end,” he added. “But it makes the size and scope of the response feel no less significant. As for oil, there’s the premise that Iran’s oil infrastructure may be attacked, of course, but there’s also the threat that Iran may deliberately blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel’s response,” he continued. “The prospect that oil prices rise to $100 per barrel is, no doubt, intended to put pressure on Israel to refrain from attacking Iran at all,” Wizman went on to state. In the report, Wizman said that, if oil prices do end lower today, it will probably be because of China, not the Mid-East. “Traders overnight were said to have been let down by the lack of emphasis from China policymakers on pushing more fiscal stimulus through the system,” he stated in the report. In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone earlier today, Antonio Di Giacomo, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, said oil prices saw a significant increase on Monday. “This rise is due to growing tensions in the Middle East following an attack by Iran on Israel. Brent, one of the main international benchmarks in the oil market, reached the $81.10 per barrel mark, while WTI rose to $78.42 per barrel,” he highlighted in the analysis. “This upward trend reflects market concerns about the impact a prolonged conflict in the region could have on the global oil supply,” he went on to state.

Surprise Crude Inventory Spike Slams Oil Prices --Crude oil inventories in the United States rose by a shocking 10.9 million barrels for the week ending October 4, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a build of 1.95 million barrels.For the week prior, the API reported a 1.5-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories.So far this year, crude oil inventories have slumped by just 5 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.3 million barrels as of October 4. SPR inventories are now at 382.9 million barrels, a figure that reflects an increase of more than 35 million from its multi-decade low last summer, yet 252 million from when President Biden took office. At the current rate of replenishment, it will take more than five years to return to January 2020 levels.Oil prices shrugged off what is now becoming rather for the markets—threats of a possible supply shock in the wake of continued conflict in the Middle East. WTI and Brent fell sharply ahead of the API data release as traders took handsome profits from the recent oil rally and their kept their eyes on soft demand from China. At 3:39 pm ET, Brent crude was trading down $3.46 (-4.28%) on the day at $77.47—a nearly $4 per barrel gain from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading sharply down on the day by $3.29 (-4.26%) at $73.85—a $3.70 per barrel gain from this time last Tuesday.

WTI Holds Losses After Large Crude Build, Huge Gasoline Draw -Oil prices are falling once again as hope for more China demand (stimmies) fade and last night's huge crude inventory build reported by API (likely storm-related).The slide in prices overshadowed nervousness about an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, particularly a possible retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran’s oil facilities following a missile barrage last week.“Heightened geopolitical risks have supported oil prices and appear likely to continue to do so,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note.“However, the underlying balance has continued to weaken.”So, the question is, will the official data confirm API's big builds...API

• Crude +10.9mm (+1.95mm exp)
• Cushing +1.359mm
• Gasoline -557k
• Distillates -2.59mm

DOE

• Crude +5.81mm (+1.95mm exp) - biggest build since April 2024
• Cushing +1.247mm
• Gasoline -6.304mm - biggest draw since Nov 2023
• Distillates -3.124mm

The official data confirmed API's reported large crude build (though smaller) but it also showed a huge gasoline draw (largest since Nov 2023) as we suspect Hurricane Helene had some significant impact in the supply chain...

Oil falls as swelling US supply counters Middle East and hurricane risks (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after U.S. data showed rising crude inventories, but losses were limited by the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the U.S.Brent crude futures settled at $76.58 a barrel, falling 60 cents, or 0.8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled down 33 cents or 0.5%, at $73.24 a barrel.Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel rise.The build was smaller than estimated on Tuesday by trade group American Petroleum Institute, which also limited declines in oil prices, Larger-than-expected drawdowns in gasoline and distillates also helped soften the impact to prices,."There's a bullish element in the gasoline number, which might have been a rebound from the hurricane," , referring to Hurricane Helene, which struck the U.S. late last month.The country is bracing for a second major storm, Hurricane Milton, which spawned tornadoes and lashing rain hours ahead of its expected landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The storm has already driven up demand for gasoline in the state, with about a quarter of fuel stations selling out of supplies, which has helped support crude prices.Markets remained on edge about a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure, even after oil prices tumbled by more than 4% on Tuesday on a possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal being reached.U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel's plans concerning oil-producer Iran in a call on Wednesday. Neither the White House nor Netanyahu's office provided details of the discussion. "We're still on tenterhooks with the Middle East situation," "Speculation of a strike on Iran is worth about $5 a barrel."Even with threats to the oil-producing Middle Eastern region top of mind, economic problems in top crude importer China made it difficult for prices to advance."Despite the current heightened tensions in the Middle East, it is easy to forget that the oil market is very much vulnerable to corrections due to the ongoing bearish macro narrative centered on China," China said on Tuesday it was "fully confident" of achieving its full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more support for the economy.Investors have worried about slow growth dampening fuel demand in China, the world's largest crude importer.Weak demand continues to underpin the fundamental outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 on weakening economic activity in China and North America.

Oil prices edge up on US storm and Israel-Iran fears - Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, underpinned by a spike in fuel demand as a major storm barrelled into Florida, with Middle East supply risks also in focus. Brent crude futures rose 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $77.16 a barrel by 0847 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.85. In the United States, the world's largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida, where about a quarter of fuel stations sold out of gasoline, helping to support crude prices. Prices spiked this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. With Israel yet to respond, crude benchmarks have eased once more and remained relatively flat through the week. But investors remained wary, given Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising". U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel's plans concerning Iran, though ANZ analysts said there is growing concern that Israel's allies have little influence on its strategy. Even with threats to the oil-producing Middle Eastern region in the spotlight, demand concerns continue to underpin the fundamental outlook. "Without a genuine demand excess or supply shortage, the risk will remain skewed to the downside. Even if the Israeli bellicose rhetoric is embodied in an Israeli assault on Iranian oil infrastructure, the price reaction could be brief, albeit violent," said Tamas Varga at oil broker PVM. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 on weakening economic activity in China and North America. EIA data on Wednesday showed crude inventories last week built more than expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

The Market Remained Concerned Over the Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Iran - The oil market on Thursday traded within its recent trading range after the market retraced its previous losses as the market remained concerned over the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The market posted a low of $73.26 on the opening and began its upward trend for the day. The crude market remained well supported after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday promised that any strike against Iran would be “lethal, precise and surprising.” The market was further supported as Israeli forces fired on positions used by U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon on Wednesday and Thursday, as Israel warned Lebanese civilians not to return to homes in the south and pursued a widening offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $71.53 to a high of $78.46 as it rallied to a high of $76.24 on the close. The November WTI contract settled up $2.61 at $75.85 and the December Brent contract settled up $2.82 at $79.40. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.4 cents at $2.3509 and the RB market settling up 8.45 cents at $2.1509. Three Gulf sources said Gulf states are lobbying the U.S. to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates. The sources stated that as part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington. A White House National Security Council spokesperson said the U.S. is deeply concerned about reports that Israeli forced fired on U.N. peacekeepers’ positions in southern Lebanon and is pressing Israel for details on the incidents. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that oil production in North Dakota fell by 60,000-90,000 bpd due to the ongoing wildfires. It said the associated wellhead natural gas production is estimated to be down 0.17-0.27 bcfd. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said that it has restored production close to levels before the country’s central bank crisis, reaching 1.22 million bpd on Thursday. Last week, Libya’s eastern-based government and Tripoli-based NOC announced that all oilfields and export terminals had been reopened after a dispute over leadership of the central bank was resolved. Oil and condensate production levels reached 1.217 million bpd on Thursday, up from 1.158 million bpd on Wednesday. NOC says that Libya produced about 1.3 million barrels per day before output at the Sharara, El Feel and Essider oilfields was halted in late August and early September. U.S. consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next month. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in September after gaining 0.2% in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 2.4%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since February 2021 and followed a 2.5% advance in August. Analysts had forecast the CPI increasing 0.1% and rising 2.3% year-on-year. Excluding the food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI increased 3.3%. That followed a 3.2% gain in August.

Oil Eases After Choppy Trading Amid Israel-Iran Tensions -Oil eased following a day of choppy trading as investors booked profits and unwound some positions ahead of Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran and the potential rollout of fresh economic stimulus in China. West Texas Intermediate settled below $76 a barrel while Brent settled near $79 a barrel. Both benchmarks jumped more than 3% on Thursday. Israel’s government has yet to decide how to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack last week, according to an official familiar with the matter. While US President Joe Biden has counseled against an attack on energy facilities in the third-largest OPEC producer, the lingering possibility is leaving investors on edge. Tumult in the Middle East has boosted price volatility and prompted hedge funds to bolster net-long positions. “We are waiting for the event on Israel’s retaliation, with no one really sure what they are going to do,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “Most of the people I know who trade actively are sidelined and waiting for the retaliation rather than actively getting in front of it.” Meanwhile, the US is expanding its sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemicals sectors in response to the country’s Oct. 1 ballistic-missile attack on Israel, according to a statement from the Treasury Department. Beijing has scheduled a briefing for this weekend to give more details on a potential stimulus package. Faltering oil consumption and slowing economic growth in the world’s biggest crude importer have weighed on market sentiment this year. In yet another sign of flailing demand, BP Plc said lower margins from processing crude will hit earnings by $400 million to $600 million, adding to similar projections from Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc. WTI for November delivery fell 0.4% to settle at $75.56 a barrel. Brent for December settlement slid 0.5% to settle at $79.04 a barrel.

Oil settles down on Florida fuel demand worries, Mideast risk drives weekly gains (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Friday but rose for the second straight week as investors weighed factors such as possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton's impact on fuel demand in Florida. Brent crude oil futures settled down 36 cents, or 0.45%, at $79.04 a barrel. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down 29 cents, 0.38%, to $75.56 per barrel. For the week however, both benchmarks rose by more than 1%. Money managers raised their net long positions on Brent crude by 123,226 contracts to 165,008 in the week to Oct. 8, according to the Intercontinental Exchange. "Markets can feel the tension, as Israel contemplates the size and form for their response to Iran's massive missile attack. If Israel destroys Iran's oil & gas infrastructure, prices will rise," Crude benchmarks spiked so far this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond. "$75 per barrel for WTI is sort of the fair value area for elevated tensions," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising." "We need to wait and see how Israel responds, but I think until that point the oil market will keep a risk premium," Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites out of concern their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's allies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.Weighing on prices, Hurricane Milton plowed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after cutting a destructive path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power.Gasoline shortages gripped the state earlier in the week as drivers stocked up ahead of the hurricane, with nearly a quarter of 7,912 gasoline stations in Florida out of fuel by Wednesday morning, but the destruction could go on to dampen fuel consumption in the hurricane's aftermath. Florida is the third-largest gasoline consumer in the U.S., but there are no refineries in the state, making it dependent on waterborne imports. And reservations over high crude inventories and a possibly more gradual monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also helped put the recent rally in oil prices on hold. On the supply side, Libya's national oil corporation (NOC) said on Friday it had restored oil production to levels before the country's central bank crisis as it reached 1.25 million barrels. Meanwhile, easing third quarter earnings for big oil may have also weighed on investor sentiment, with weak refining margins due to a slowdown in global demand for fuel and lower oil trading, putting a dent in BP's third-quarter profit by up to $600 million, the British oil major said on Friday.

Israeli Airstrikes Target Aid Trucks in Central Syria, Wound Three - Israeli attacks against Syria continued apace over the weekend, with strikes reported against humanitarian aid trucks in the Homs Province of Central Syria. The trucks were carrying food and blankets, along with medical aid, from the Iraqi Red Crescent. Details are still emerging. The attacks reportedly took place in an industrial area, near a car factory. Three members of the relief teams sent from Iraq were reported wounded in the strikes, and their condition is not at present clear.It has been reported that in the last 72 hours, some 150 trucks have entered Syria through Iraq’s Abu Kamal border crossing, and that the focus is to offer relief to the large number of Lebanese who have fled into Syria after the Israelis began ground invasions of Lebanese over the past week. Since Israel has been attacking Syria almost daily since then, it’s clear that they couldn’t simply flee from Lebanon to escape the onslaught.Israel has not commented on the attacks on aid shipments, and probably won’t do so, since such strikes would tend to be embarrassing to them to admit. Israeli media often speculates that such attacks are because Iran is smuggling arms under the guise of humanitarian aid, though clearly it being humanitarian aid isn’t much of an obstacle to Israeli attacks.

Israel Jails American Journalist for Reporting on Iranian Missile Strikes - Jeremy Loffredo, an American journalist for The Grayzone, has been arrested by the Israeli military for his reporting inside Israel.Loffredo was jailed just a few days after releasing a report on Iranian missile strikes in Israel, information the Israeli military has been trying to censor. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, because of the report, Loffredo faces charges of “aiding the enemy during wartime and providing information to the enemy.” Representatives from the US embassy attended a hearing on a police request to extend Loffredo’s detention, but so far, the US government has been silent and has not publicly called for his release.The report Loffredo released before being arrested by the Israeli military“Israel is detaining and prosecuting an American journalist for doing journalism. Will his media colleagues defend him?” Aaron Maté, a journalist for The Grayzone, wrote on X.An independent journalist who was arrested alongside Loffredo but has since been released said they were beaten and blindfolded by the Israeli military.“Today I was beaten, kidnapped, blindfolded and taken to a military base by the Israeli Occupation Forces, together with 4 other journalists,” the journalist, Andrey X, wrote on X. “Two of us were held for 11 hours without charges, my phone was confiscated (stolen), and one of us is still in custody.”British journalist Kit Klarenberg, a contributor to The Grayzone, is asking people to contact the US embassy in Israel (JerusalemACS@state.gov) and urge pressure on the Israeli government to release Loffredo.

Israel seeks to reshape Middle East, with force and with US backing --One year after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, Israel is reshaping the Middle East by force, taking the fight to Iran and its proxies with the help of the United States — despite pleas from the Biden administration for diplomacy. While President Biden is warning Israel against a major attack on Iran in retaliation for a missile barrage last week, Israel’s ambassador to the United States is warning “a long and arduous path” lies ahead. “Following the carnage of Oct. 7, all our enemies in the region and globally smelled the blood, sensed weakness and vulnerability and rose to hit us,” said Michael Herzog, Israel’s envoy in Washington, during a memorial ceremony Monday at the Israeli Embassy. “One year on, the story of this war is also of Israel rising to its feet, turning the tide, restoring its deterrence and dismantling the ring of fire that Iran has built around us.” The Israeli ambassador’s message was delivered in front of national security adviser Jake Sullivan, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, and White House coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk — officials who were blindsided last month when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected a cease-fire proposal with Hezbollah the White House had coordinated with Jerusalem behind closed doors. Since then, Israel has forged ahead with its plans to dismantle Hezbollah, weaken Iran and suppress Hamas in the Gaza Strip — largely without consulting the United States beforehand, but relying heavily on military and political support from Washington. “It must be said, we wouldn’t be where we are today were it not for the steadfast support of our close friend and ally the United States of America,” Herzog told the assembled diplomats, along with members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. The episode demonstrates how the Israeli government, under Netanyahu, is reframing its war aims toward a vision of long-lasting regional dominance. “This is our war of existence — ‘the war of redemption.’ This is how I would like the war to be called officially,” Netanyahu said during a Cabinet meeting on Monday. “We are changing the security reality in our region, for our children and for our future, in order to ensure that what happened on Oct. 7 does not recur. Never again.” While rocket fire still emanates from the Gaza Strip and Hamas holds 101 hostages it kidnapped from Israel on Oct. 7, the Israeli military has shifted operations to take on the threats from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel estimates Hezbollah has fired 9,500 rockets into the country since Oct. 8, 2023, and considers the group its most dangerous, proximate adversary, with a well-stocked, organized and disciplined fighting force. But the exact goals of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah are not entirely clear. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 calls, generally, for the absence of weapons between Israel’s northern border and Lebanon’s Litani River. But Netanyahu, in a speech Tuesday night, called for the Lebanese to “stand up and take their country back” from Hezbollah.

Report: US Considers Launching Airstrikes Against Iran To Support Israeli Attack - The US has discussed the idea of supporting Israel’s expected attack on Iran with intelligence or with airstrikes of its own, NBC News reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed US officials.The report said senior US military officials have discussed launching “very limited” airstrikes against Iranian targets inside Iran or outside of the country, though the US officials said intelligence support for Israel was more likely.So far, no final decision on US action has been made, according to the report, and the US officials said Israel has not briefed the US on its specific plans to strike Iran in response to the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week.Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations in the region, including the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In the aftermath, the US said it would work with Israel to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” for the attack.The NBC report said US officials were worried that Israel could launch its attack while Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Wednesday. However, after the report was published, Gallant’s trip to the US has been canceled.Israeli media said the trip was postponed because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to speak with President Biden and wants the Israeli security cabinet to agree on a plan to attack Iran before Gallant heads to Washington.The Israelis are considering several types of targets to hit in Iran: military and intelligence infrastructure, air defenses, and energy facilities. Based on media reports, Israel does not plan to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in its first attack, but could if Iran hits back and the situation turns into a full-blown war, which Israeli officials think is likely to happen.

Biden Holds Phone Call With Netanyahu On Iran Strike Plans After Gallant Trip Blocked --President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are holding a crucial phone call Wednesday morning focused on Israel's plans to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, which saw some 200 warheads launched, many of which hit targets on the ground including key airbases.It marks the first call since Iran's attack, and also the first between the leaders in two months, and comes as Washington has signaled it is deeply worried that a bigger regional war could break out if Israel's retaliation goes too far. The call is scheduled for 10:30ET. NBC is reporting that Vice President Kamala Harris will join the call.The call comes amid some internal Israeli drama, given the open spat between Netanyahu and his Defense Minister. Netanyahu has forced Gallant to cancel a planned trip to Washington. It was set for Wednesday, and he was to meet with counterparts in the Pentagon about "ongoing Middle East security developments," a Pentagon statement had indicated."An Israeli official, who asked not to be identified discussing the decision, cited last-minute objections to the trip by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," Bloomberg confirms."Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has sparred with Netanyahu about the conduct of the yearlong war in Gaza and on other fronts, had been due to fly to Washington for talks," the report adds.And Axios has filled in some further details as follows:

• Netanyahu told Gallant his trip wouldn't be approved he had received a call from Biden and the Israeli security cabinet had approved the attack plans.
• The Biden-Netanyahu call was already scheduled before the flare-up between Netanyahu and Gallant, according to a source familiar with the issue.

As it stands, Biden is opposing both Israeli potential plans to strike nuclear facilities, and also energy sites such as oil and gas depots."A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision was made, Netanyahu would want to brief Biden," Axios noted. Is the Wednesday call all about Bibi getting a final go ahead from the White House?

Biden, Harris Speak With Netanyahu To Discuss Attacking Iran - President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday to discuss Israel’s plans to attack Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage fired at Israel last week.Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations, including the assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Israeli officials told Axios that Israel’s retaliation would likely involve airstrikes on Iranian military sites coupled with covert operations similar to the Haniyeh assassination.NBC News reported on Tuesday that the US was considering supporting Israel’s attack with direct airstrikes of its own, although US officials said intelligence support was more likely. The US has also committed to defending Israel from any Iranian response.The White House readout of Biden and Harris’s call with Netanyahu said Biden “affirmed his ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and “condemned unequivocally Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1.”According to Axios, Netanyahu will meet with his security cabinet on Thursday to get approval for military action in Iran, which Israeli officials believe will likely lead to full-blown war. Iran has vowed it would respond to any Israeli attack.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was due to visit Washington on Wednesday, but his trip was postponed. According to Israeli media, Netanyahu wanted to speak with Biden and get approval from the security cabinet to attack Iran before Gallant’s trip.Gallant issued a threat to Iran on Wednesday, saying, “The Iranian attack was aggressive but inaccurate. In contrast, our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising — they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results.”

Harris says Iran is America's 'greatest adversary' -- Vice President Kamala Harris said she considers Iran to be America's "greatest adversary," in a new interview on the CBS show "60 Minutes Overtime." The Democratic presidential nominee's choice of Iran, rather than Russia or China, underscores how much the Mideast war has shifted U.S. foreign policy priorities. Speaking with "60 Minutes" correspondent Bill Whitaker, Harris was asked which nation she considers "to be our greatest adversary.""I think there's an obvious one in mind, which is Iran," Harris replied. "Iran has American blood on their hands. This attack on Israel, 200 ballistic missiles.""What we need to do to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, that is one of my highest priorities," she added.Whitaker followed up, asking, "If Iran is building a nuclear weapon, would you take military action?""I'm not going to talk about hypotheticals at this moment," said the vice president.That Iran would be among America's primary adversaries is hardly a surprise. The Islamic Republic has been locked in an asymmetrical Cold War by proxy with the United States for more than 40 years. But the fact that, for Harris, concerns about Iran appear to have eclipsed those about China, Russia and North Korea, even briefly, is noteworthy.Iran's adversarial relationship with the United States, already set in stone, has been degraded further in the past year as military confrontations between Israel and Iran have expanded what was formerly localized operations into a regional Middle East war.Last month, Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon that killed hundreds, including longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. U.S. and Israeli armed forces intercepted the missiles.Global financial markets fell on fears that Israel could respond by striking Iranian oil facilities, a move that President Joe Bidendiscouraged in a press conference Friday.Former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, which had provided sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for limitations on its nuclear program. Iran is still formally part of the deal, but has not been honoring it since the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions under Trump.The Biden administration encouraged talks on reviving the deal in 2022. But they collapsed after the White House accusedTehran of providing lethal weapons and training to Russian forces invading Ukraine.In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Iran was ready to restart multilateral nuclear negotiations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The White House reportedly signaled that the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran.

Trump Says Israel Should Strike Iran's Nuclear Sites - Former President Donald Trump said on Friday that Israel should target Iran’s nuclear facilities, criticizing President Biden for saying he didn’t support such strikes. “They asked him, what do you think about Iran, would you hit Iran? And he goes, ‘As long as they don’t hit the nuclear stuff.’ That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Trump said at a campaign event in Fayetteville, North Carolina. “I think he’s got that one wrong,” Trump added. “Isn’t that what you’re supposed to hit? I mean, it’s the biggest risk we have, nuclear weapons.”The former president also claimed that soon Iran will have nuclear weapons, but there’s no evidence Tehran is working to make a bomb, something that’s been acknowledged by US intelligence this year. Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and all of its nuclear facilities are for civilian purposes.In contrast, Israel is not a signatory to the NPT and has a secret nuclear weapons program that the US does not officially acknowledge. It’s estimated that Israel has somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear warheads.Trump’s comments about Iran’s nuclear sites come as the world is anticipating an Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israel last week, which was a response to several Israeli escalations in the region.The US is closely coordinating with Israel on its plans to attack Iran and is expected to participate in some way, whether by sharing intelligence or more direct participation. Bide said the possibility of striking Iran’s oil infrastructure was being discussed, though he later cautioned against the idea. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” he said on Friday.

CIA Says No Evidence Iran Has Decided To Build a Nuclear Weapon - CIA Director William Burns said Monday that there’s no evidence Iran has decided to build nuclear weapons, comments that come amid calls in the US and Israel for strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.“No, we do not see evidence today that the supreme leader has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponization program,” Burns told the Cipher Brief security conference, according toNBC News.In 2003, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. His predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, also rejected the idea of starting a WMD program while facing chemical attacks from a US-backed Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.Burns said that if Iran did move to make a nuclear weapon, US intelligence would likely be aware of the decision. “I think we are reasonably confident that — working with our friends and allies — we will be able to see it relatively early on,” he said.The CIA chief noted that Iran has increased uranium enrichment levels since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, in 2018. Iran is enriching some uranium at 60%, which is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade.Iran increased uranium enrichment to 60% in 2021 following an Israeli sabotage attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, which was timed to sabotage indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran.Burns claimed Iran would only need one week to “produce one bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material,” but the NBC report noted most experts say it would take at least one year to build an actual nuclear warhead.

Report: US To Give Israel 'Compensation' If It Hits Only US-Approved Targets in Iran - --The US has offered Israel a “compensation package” if it avoids hitting certain targets in its planned attack on Iran, The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday, citing the Israeli TV channel Kan 11. Amichai Stein, a correspondent for Kan 11, said the package would include military aid and a guarantee that the US would provide total diplomatic support. “An American official said, ‘If you don’t hit targets A, B, C, we will provide you with diplomatic protection and an arms package,” Chair said. “Israeli officials responded saying, ‘We consider the United States and listen to them. But we will do anything and everything we can to protect the citizens and the security of the State of Israel.'”The US is coordinating with Israel on its plans to respond to the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week, which came in response to several Israeli escalations throughout the region, including the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.The US has said it will ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” but has warned against certain types of attacks, including attacks on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities. President Biden said the US and Israel were discussing the idea of strikes on Iranian oil sites, but later said if he was in Israel’s shoes,he would be thinking about “other alternatives than striking oil fields.”Other attacks Israel is considering include strikes on Iran’s air defense systems or more targeted assassinations inside Iran. The US is expected to support the attack in some way, whether by providing intelligence or more direct support and is vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian retaliation.Any Israeli attack on Iran risks provoking a major war as Iran is vowing that Israel will face a harsher attack if it retaliates. On Friday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran and its allies in the region won’t back down in the face of Israeli attacks.

The role of Iran’s oil and gas in US war plans against China - The United States and Israel are on the brink of war with Iran. While the Biden administration has publicly stated that it does not want “escalation,” it has made clear that it will support Israel regardless of what Netanyahu does. Nearly every bomb dropped on Gaza and Lebanon was made in the US and given for free to Israel by the Biden-Harris administration. For Netanyahu, who faces multiple criminal indictments once he leaves office, this moment presents an opportunity to realize the long-held, grotesque ambitions of the Israeli ruling class: to destroy the Iranian regime through war. As the Financial Times warned this past weekend, “the chances of an Israeli attempt to topple the Iranian regime cannot be fully discounted.” The paper noted that last week Netanyahu declared, “When Iran is finally free—and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think—everything will be different.” The Trump faction of the American ruling class has expressed its full backing for such a war. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former Middle East adviser, wrote a long post on X arguing for Israel and the US to topple the Iranian regime. He stated, “Iran is now fully exposed. … Failing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.” Though other sections of the ruling class have voiced concerns about the spiraling situation, the logic of their position—unconditional support for Israel’s actions—puts them on the same road toward war with Iran. The Democrats may have tactical differences with Trump about how to overthrow the Iranian regime but both salivate at the prospect of doing so. The removal of the Iranian regime, while a geopolitical end in itself for American imperialism, is also a critical steppingstone in its economic and military confrontation with its chief adversary: China. All factions of the American ruling class unconditionally support Israel because they know that controlling the resource-rich Middle East—and ending the Ayatollah’s power—will significantly increase their power and flexibility in a war with China. Iran is a large country, roughly the size of Spain, Ukraine and France combined. Eighty-nine million people live there. Compared to Iraq, its neighbor, which was invaded by the US in 2003, Iran has almost four times as many people and a far more sophisticated military and economy. Iran has a long history of colonial subjugation, including British control over its oil industry in the first half of the 20th century, the CIA-MI6 coup in 1953 to prevent the nationalization of its oil industry and several decades of bloody rule by the US-backed Shah. Everyone knows that Iran’s wealth primarily comes from its oil. Iran produces a little more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, about 3 percent of the world’s total. What is not as well understood, however, is the potential for Iran’s oil production to expand. Only three other countries in the world have larger reserves of commercially realistic oil (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq). Additionally, Iran has the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world after Russia. Oil and natural gas remain the energetic bedrock of the global economy. Despite efforts to promote new alternative energies, the “energy transition” under capitalism remains a half-hearted and contradictory affair. The principal concern of the US and Europe with their investment in EVs and critical minerals is not stopping global warming but ensuring their economic and geopolitical supremacy vis-à-vis China, which has excelled in this area. Fifty-seven percent of the world’s energy comes from oil and gas, another 27 percent from coal, and just 1 percent comes from solar, a record high. Given the enduring supremacy of oil and gas, countries holding large, cheap reserves of the commodity remain essential to geopolitical calculations. It is striking that Russia, Iraq and Iran—after Saudi Arabia—are the world’s largest holders of cheap oil reserves. Each country has been a principal target of US imperialism over the last quarter-century. The US invaded Iraq and is now on the brink of war with both Russia and Iran, the second and third largest holders of oil and gas reserves. What is more, each of them—partially due to being squeezed and sidelined by economic sanctions—has a relatively underdeveloped oil industry, deprived of vital streams of capital and advanced technology required for production. This is evident in the case of Iraq, where after the US’s brutal invasion, American and European oil companies significantly raised production, increasing output from 2 million to almost 5 million barrels per day today.It is important to stress that a key driver of US imperialism is the growing military and economic collision with China’s development. The US and its allies are fundamentally opposed to giving Chinese capitalism a “seat at the table” of the most advanced capitalist countries.For several decades, China served as the cheap goods platform for the world’s major companies. But due to its own internal development—particularly in education and more advanced manufacturing processes—China has now created domestically controlled industries that seriously challenge US and European companies.This is most obvious in the realm of automobiles, where Chinese EVs, advanced and cheaper than those of the US, have experienced rapid growth. In just a few years, China’s auto exports have gone from being a small fraction of those of Japan, the US and Germany to now overtaking all of them.

Israeli Strikes Kill Over 100 Children in Lebanon in 11 Days - At least 100 children have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon since Israel dramatically escalated its attacks on the country on September 23, the UN’s child relief agency, UNICEF, said Friday. Citing Lebanon’s Health Ministry, UNICEF said 127 children have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past year, with more than 100 dying between September 23 and October 4. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have wounded at least 890 children since October 8, 2023. “Doctors tell us of treating children who are bloodied, bruised, and broken, suffering both physically and mentally. Many are experiencing anxiety, flashbacks, and nightmares related to explosions. No child should be subjected to such horrific situations,” said Adele Khodr, UNICEF’s director for the Middle East. The number of child casualties in Lebanon has likely risen since Friday as Israel continues to pound Lebanon. Israel launched its heaviest bombing yet on Beirut from Saturday into Sunday, with about 30 strikes reported in Dahiyeh, the city’s southern suburb. Lebanon’s children have also been suffering a massive displacement crisis in the wake of Israel’s escalations. Lebanon’s government has said more than 1.2 million people have been displaced, including over 400,000 children. Similar to the Israeli assault on Gaza, Israeli warplanes have bombed evacuation routes in Lebanon, including the Masnaa border crossing, which connects Lebanon and Syria. Israeli strikes on the crossing early Friday severely damaged the road, forcing Lebanese fleeing into Syria to travel by foot.

IDF warns of operations against Hezbollah along Lebanon's southern coast -Israel’s military on Monday said it would soon launch operations on Lebanon’s southern coast, which would mark a further escalation of its fight against Hezbollah. “Urgent warning to vacationers, beachgoers, and anyone using boats for fishing or any other use from the Awali River line southward, the IDF will soon operate in the maritime area against Hezbollah’s terrorist activities,” Avichay Adraee, the military’s Arabic spokesperson, warned in a post on the social platform X. “For your safety, refrain from being in the sea or on the beach from now until further notice. Being on the beach and boat movements in the area of the Awali River line southward pose a danger to your life.” The warning, which applies to a 36-mile stretch along the Mediterranean, comes on the anniversary of the Hamas-led attack into Israel from the Gaza strip, which killed nearly 1,200 people — the deadliest attack in the country’s history. The Oct. 7, 2023, raid — which also saw the abduction of 250 people, 100 of whom are still being held as hostages — set off a brutal air and ground campaign against Hamas in Gaza and sparked a simmering conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon that has rapidly escalated in recent weeks. Israel has been trading cross-border fire with Hezbollah over the past year, but last month stepped up its bombing across Lebanon and began a limited ground campaign just over its shared border, threatening to tip the region into a wider war. On Monday, Israeli fighter jets hit Hezbollah positions inland in southern Lebanon with more than 120 strikes in an hour. Separate from its coastal warning, Israel’s military also told residents in several neighborhoods south of Beirut to evacuate Monday night local time. “For your safety and the safety of your families, you must evacuate these buildings and the surrounding ones immediately and move at least 500 meters away from them,” Adraee said in a post on X that showed a map of the area and marked buildings. The ongoing Israeli strikes — which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, killed some 1,400 people and displaced another 1.2 million — have drawn the ire of Iran, which last week hurled a barrage of some 180 missiles at Israel. Israel’s leaders have vowed to respond to the strikes. In a speech to mark the anniversary of the Hamas attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel will “continue to fight.” “As long as the enemy threatens our existence and the peace of our country, we will continue to fight,” Netanyahu said at a ceremony in Ofakim, Israel. “As long as our hostages are still in Gaza, we will continue to fight.”

Israeli Strikes Kill 36 in Lebanon as Netanyahu Threatens To Turn the Country Into Gaza ---Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 36 people and wounding 150, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to destroy the country like he has Gaza.In a video he posted on social media, Netanyahu said he was addressing the people of Lebanon and told them to “save” the country of Lebanon or face the “destruction and suffering” that’s been inflicted on Gaza.“You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,” Netanyahu said. “I say to you, the people of Lebanon: free your country from Hezbollah so this war can end.”Israeli strikes were reported across Lebanon on Tuesday, including in Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburb that has been heavily targeted. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed 2,119 people in the country and injured 10,019 since October 2023, with the majority of the casualties inflicted since Israel escalated in mid-September.Also on Tuesday, Israel sent a fourth division of ground troops into southern Lebanon, where its forces have faced stiff resistance from Hezbollah. According to Middle East Eye, based on recent mobilizations, there may be 15,000 Israeli troops inside Lebanon.

Israel Has Killed Nearly 2,100 in Lebanon Since Last Year - Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed at least 2,083 people and wounded 9,869 others since October 8, 2023, the Lebanese Health Ministry said on Monday.The majority of the deaths occurred since mid-September, when Israel dramatically escalated its attacks on Lebanon, first by blowing up Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, then by ramping up airstrikes.The Health Ministry said since September 23, Israel has killed 1,251 people in Lebanon. The exact breakdown is unclear, but the casualties includemany civilians, and over 100 children have been killed since September.Al Jazeera reported Monday that Israel expanded its attacks on southern Lebanon and Dahiyeh, the southern suburb of Beirut that has been heavily targeted. One Israeli strike killed 10 fire fighters in the southern Lebanon town of Baraachit.Hezbollah also fired a barrage of rockets into Israel on Monday, hitting an area near the port city of Haifa. At least 10 people were wounded by the Hezbollah attack, which marked the first strike on Haifa since Hezbollah and Israel began trading fire across the border last year.Ground fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters continues in south Lebanon. So far, Israel has confirmed that 11 of its soldiers have been killed on the ground.Israel’s assault on Lebanon has put Irish soldiers stationed as part of the UN’s peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, in a dangerous situation. Reports say fighting between Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops took place just two kilometers from the Irish peacekeepers’ outpost, known as Post 6-52. Both the UN and Ireland have rejected an Israeli request to remove the peace keepers from the area.

US Opposes Ceasefire In Lebanon, Urges Israel To 'Degrade' Hezbollah The State Department said Tuesday that it doesn’t want to see a ceasefire in Lebanon and supports the heavy Israeli bombardment of the country to "degrade Hezbollah." State Department spokesman Matt Miller was asked about comments from Hezbollah Deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said the group supports efforts by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire without mentioning that it must also include a ceasefire in Gaza. "Now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly, they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire," Miller told reporters. Miller claimed the US "ultimately wants a diplomatic solution" but voiced strong support for Israeli military operations, which have killed more than 1,250 people, including over 100 children. "We support Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability," he said. The US is also calling for Lebanon to hold new presidential elections amid the Israeli bombardment. Lebanon hasn’t had a president since 2022, as the many different factions in parliament haven’t agreed to elect one. Hezbollah’s political wing currently holds 15 seats in the nation’s 128-seat parliament."What we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is Lebanon able to break the grip Hezbollah has had on the country … break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had over the country," Miller said.The US is still characterizing the Israeli assault on Lebanon as a "limited incursion" despite the massive bombings in Beirut and across the country.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Tuesday that more escalations were coming. In a threatening message to the people of Lebanon, he called for them to "free" the country from Hezbollah or they will face "destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza."Before Israel launched a strike that killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the US was calling for a temporary 21-day ceasefire. But the US put no real pressure on Israel to accept the truce since it provided a massive new military aid package as Netanyahu was rejecting the idea of a ceasefire.

Israeli Forces Kill 56 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israeli forces killed at least 56 Palestinians and wounded another 278 in the previous 24-hour period as Israel continues to launch strikes across the Strip.The ministry said the latest violence brings its recorded death toll since October 2023 to 41,965 and the number of wounded to 97,590. The figures only include injured and dead Palestinians who arrived at hospitals or morgues and don’t account for the estimated 10,000 people who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble or indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.In an open letter to President Biden and Vice President Harris, 99 American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.Israeli strikes on Tuesday included attacks on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. On Sunday, Israel issued a new evacuation order for all of north Gaza, which signaled the start of an ethnic cleansing plan that has been reviewed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that the streets of Jabalia are strewn with the bodies of dead Palestinians. “Eyewitnesses said that a number of civilians were lying on the ground in the streets and alleys of Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip, as civil defense crews were unable to rescue them due to the continuous Israeli occupation bombing,” the news agency said.The Cradle reported that the Qassams Brigade, the armed wing of Hamas,said its fighters were engaged in “fierce clashes” with Israeli forces in the Jabalia camp.An Al Jazeera journalist reporting from Jabalia said the Israeli military was ordering civilians to leave the camp but was also blocking the way out. “The army is blocking the way out. We are all trapped here. We don’t know what will happen in the next hours,” said Moath al-Kahlout.Heavy Israeli strikes were also reported in central Gaza in the refugee camps of Nuseirat and Bureij. Israel also hit targets in southern Gaza, withWafa reporting at least eight Palestinians were killed by a drone strike that targeted civilians gathered at a water filling station.

Israel orders 3 hospitals to be evacuated in northern Gaza: Health Ministry - The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of patients and staff at three hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip, the enclave’s Health Ministry said Tuesday. Israel “demands the evacuation of Kamal Adwan Hospital, the Indonesian Hospital, and Al-Awda Hospital from patients and health personnel,” it said in a statement. Israeli troops arrested "a paramedic who accompanied a critical care patient during their transfer from Kamal Adwan Hospital despite prior coordination,” according to the statement, that noted the army is besieging the Kamal Adwan Hospital and firing at its administrative headquarters. The army threatened the hospitals with "destruction, killing, and arrest" if they did not evacuate, similar to what happened at the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City which has been besieged for weeks at a time since last November, it added. The ministry warned that the Kamal Adwan Hospital could stop functioning within hours because of a lack of fuel. Gaza health officials pleaded for the "serious protection for health institutions and their staff, especially in the northern Gaza Strip." Hossam Abu Safia, director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital, said in an audio recording sent to reporters that "the Israeli army has given them 24 hours to completely evacuate the hospital of patients and health staff." "The army communicated directly and threatened us, saying we must evacuate the hospital or we would put ourselves in danger,” he said. Abu Safia described the Israeli move as dangerous, threatening the "collapse of the health care system in the northern Gaza Strip" and expressed concerns about a potential new plan to displace residents of northern Gaza by incapacitating the health care system. The Israeli army announced Sunday the beginning of a military operation in Jabalia, claiming it was to "prevent Hamas from regaining strength in the area," following hours of fierce attacks on the eastern and western areas of northern Gaza in the most intense fighting since May. Witnesses reported that Israeli ground military vehicles reached areas in northwestern Gaza. Earlier Tuesday, the Israeli army warned Palestinians to evacuate their homes in Jabalia town and its camp and head south through a "safe corridor," while the Gaza Interior Ministry cautioned residents about complying because it is "deception and lies." Israel has continued a brutal offensive on Gaza following an attack by Hamas last October, despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire.

New Israeli Assault on North Gaza Signals Start of Ethnic Cleansing Plan - The Israeli military has launched a fresh assault on northern Gaza and ordered all Palestinian civilians living in the north to head south, signaling Israel may be enacting an ethnic cleansing plan that has been reviewed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Known as the “general’s plan” since it was drawn up by retired IDF generals, the plan would result in the complete ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from areas in Gaza north of the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military that separates Gaza City and other parts of the north from the south. Itsik Zuaret, a reporter for Israel’s public broadcaster Kan, said the general’s plan was underway. “In the future, the entire northern area of the Gaza Strip will be cleansed according to the general’s plan,” he wrote on X.The first step of the plan is to transfer the estimated 300,000 Palestinian civilians out of northern Gaza, then impose a full siege on the north to starve out remaining Hamas fighters and other Palestinians who remain. Northern Gaza would be declared a “closed military zone,” meaning anyone who remains will be targeted by the IDF.Since Israel has bombed so-called “safe zones” throughout the war and the tent camps in the south are already extremely overcrowded, many Palestinian civilians are expected to ignore the new evacuation order. According to Al Jazeera, some Palestinians have started to head south, but Palestinian authorities are calling on civilians not to listen to the Israeli evacuation order.“Israeli claims about the presence of safe zones in southern Gaza are lies as Israel commits crimes and massacres in all areas of the enclave,” Gaza’s Interior Ministry said. “We call on citizens in northern Gaza to ignore Israeli threats.”Israeli forces are currently focusing their renewed assault in northern Gaza on the Jabalia refugee camp and have sent tanks into the area for the first time in months. At least 17 people, including nine children, were killed by Israeli attacks on Jabalia overnight Saturday into Sunday.The Israeli military said it has surrounded Jabalia, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad said its fighters have targeted Israeli troops attempting to penetrate the camp.Under the general’s plan, once Israel kills and starves the remaining Palestinians in northern Gaza, it can use the same tactics in other areas of the Strip. Israel’s assault on Lebanon and the looming Israeli attack on Iran has taken much of the world’s attention away from the genocidal war in Gaza, giving Netanyahu an opportunity to enact the ethnic cleansing plan with less global scrutiny.

One year of genocide in Gaza - October 7 marks one year since Israel and the United States launched the genocide of the Palestinian people in Gaza, as the first phase of a regional war throughout the Middle East that is now metastasizing into a US-Israeli war on Iran. The toll of the war of extermination against the civilians of Gaza is staggering. Between 40,000 people, according to official figures, and 186,000 people, according to an estimate published in the authoritative medical journal The Lancet, have been killed by Israeli bullets, bombs, or through famine or preventable disease. The entire remaining population of Gaza is being starved by Israel, with “the highest number of people facing catastrophic hunger ever recorded by the Integrated Food Security Classification system—anywhere, anytime,” in the words of UN Secretary General António Guterres. Gaza, one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, has been turned into a wasteland, with the majority of its buildings damaged or destroyed. Every single university in Gaza has been leveled, along with hospitals, schools and cultural centers in a calculated and deliberate sociocide. The official justification for the genocide and ethnic cleansing now underway is the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas. The US media seeks to present the events of October 7 as a bolt from the blue, an unexpected sneak attack by Hamas that could not have been predicted and had no antecedent factors. But this narrative fell apart within a matter of months. In December 2023, the New York Times published a report revealing that the Israeli government was in possession of the exact document that laid out “point by point” the plan for the attack, which was “implemented with alarming accuracy.” Moreover, Israeli military and intelligence forces operating on the Gaza border were ordered to carry out a deliberate stand-down, with border units withdrawn to other areas of Israel just days ahead of the attack. The official United Nations inquiry on the October 7 attacks asserted “that Israeli authorities failed to protect civilians in southern Israel on almost every front.” It was likewise revealed that a significant portion of Israeli casualties were killed by Israeli forces themselves, who fired indiscriminately into settlements where Hamas was operating, and deliberately targeted Israelis being held hostage. According to an official United Nations inquiry into the attack, Israeli forces “applied the so-called ‘Hannibal Directive’ and killed... Israeli civilians.” On October 18, 2023, US President Joe Biden visited Israel to declare that the events of October 7 were “Israel’s 9/11.” Indeed, there is a deep connection between the two events. The September 11, 2001 attacks were seized upon by the Bush administration to launch the long-planned invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, together with sweeping attacks on democratic rights at home. Likewise, the October 7 attacks were used as a pretext to implement plans long in the making. On September 22, 2023, just two weeks before the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displayed a map at the United Nations General Assembly of the “new Middle East,” showing Israel encompassing all of the Palestinian territories, as part of a geopolitical framework with the US-aligned Middle Eastern states of Egypt, Sudan, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. One year later, it is clear that Israel and the United States seized upon the events of October 7 to implement this vision of what he called the “new Middle East.” When Netanyahu spoke again at the United Nations on September 27, near the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks, he again referenced “the map I presented here last year,” declaring, “With American support and leadership, I believe this vision can materialize much sooner than people think.” The war now unfolding in the Middle East is part of a decades-long effort by US imperialism to subjugate the whole of the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa, a continuation of the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the regime-change operations in Libya and Syria. If the ferocity and homicidal character of this effort have become more intense, it is because the US-Israeli genocidal war in the Middle East is part of the eruption of a global war against Russia and China—both nuclear-armed states—in which the Middle East is only one front.

Israeli Forces Kill 39 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli forces killed at least 39 more Palestinians and wounded another 137 in the previous 24-hour period. The ministry’s figures are based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians that arrive at hospitals and morgues. “The Israeli occupation commits 4 massacres against families in the Gaza Strip, of which 39 martyrs and 137 injuries arrived at hospitals during the past 24 hours,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.The latest violence brings the ministry’s recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,909 and the number of wounded to 97,303. The numbers are an undercount since they don’t account for the estimated Palestinians missing and presumed dead under the rubble or the indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.The ministry said in a statement marking one year of Israel’s genocidal war that it’s estimated “many times those who were martyred died as a result of the lack of medical services.” In an open letter to President Biden and Vice President Harris, 99 American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.The Israeli military on Monday issued a new evacuation order for the southern city of Khan Younis, claiming a rocket attack that targeted central Israel was launched from there. Hamas’s armed wing, al-Qassam Brigades, took credit for the attack. Israeli warplanes struck Khan Younis as Palestinian civilians were fleeing the city. Nowhere is safe in Gaza as Israel has repeatedly targeted so-called “safe zones” throughout the past year.Israeli forces also launched artillery strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, killing at least eight and wounding dozens. On Sunday, Israel ordered all remaining Palestinians in northern Gaza to head south,signaling the start of an ethnic cleansing plan that’s been reviewed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel Kills 45 More Palestinians in Gaza, Escalates in Northern Gaza - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that Israeli forces have killed at least 45 Palestinians and wounded 130 in the previous 24-hour period as Israel is working to cleanse northern Gaza of Palestinians.The latest violence brings the ministry’s recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 42,010 and the number of wounded to 97,720. The figures do not include the estimated 10,000 Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have saidthey believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.On Wednesday, the Israeli military escalated operations in northern Gaza, where it is carrying out an ethnic cleansing campaign based on an outline known as the “general’s plan.” On Sunday, the Israeli military ordered the estimated 300,000 Palestinians living in northern Gaza to head south.The renewed Israeli assault in the north has been focused on the Jabalia refugee camp. The Israeli military’s Arabic language spokesman issued a fresh evacuation order for the camp on Wednesday.“We reiterate our call that you in the Jabalia camp evacuate your homes and shelters immediately,” the spokesman said. “This is your chance. Move now without delay from your shelters and homes to the southern Gaza Strip.”While the Israeli military has been ordering Palestinians to leave Jabalia, it has also been firing at those trying to flee. CNN reported on Tuesday that Israeli drones were shooting Palestinians who were evacuating.“Drones were firing at everyone passing by on the road,” Mohammad Sultan, an eyewitness, told CNN. “Three people were shot right in front of me. My brother and I tried to help the injured get to the hospitals, but a little girl was shot in the neck, and her father was also injured.”Israel has also ordered the evacuation of all patients and medical staff from three hospitals in northern Gaza: the Kamal Adwan Hospital, the Indonesian Hospital, and the Al-Awda Hospital.

Israeli Strikes Kill 28 Palestinians Sheltering at School in Gaza - On Thursday, Israeli strikes targeted a school-turned-shelter for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, killing at least 28 and wounding 54.Gaza’s Health Ministry said the number of dead and wounded was based on bodies and injured people who were brought to hospitals and morgues, meaning the toll could rise.The breakdown of the casualties is unclear, but footage and photos of the aftermath of the attack show many women and children were killed and wounded. “Children and women were torn to pieces by the intensity of the strike,” said Al Jazeera reporter Tareq Abu Azzoum.“I saw with my own eyes lots of bodies that were torn to pieces, making it quite hard to identify them unless family members managed to find out who they were from some signs in their clothing in the hospital morgue,” Azzoum added. Nahed al-Zaneen, a Palestinian who teaches displaced children at tents outside of the Rafadi school, told Middle East Eye that he was just meters away from the blast. “I get out, and all I see is shreds of bodies all over the floor. Heads blown up, innocent children scattered across the floor,” he said.As usual, the Israeli military claimed it targeted a Hamas “command and control center” but offered no evidence for the claim. Schools sheltering displaced Palestinians have become frequent targets of the Israeli military.Strikes continued across other parts of Gaza on Thursday, including in north Gaza, where Israeli forces are trying to cleanse the entire area of Palestinians. Gaza’s Health Ministry said at least 55 Palestinians were killed and 166 were wounded in the previous 24-hour period, bringing its death toll since last October to 42,065 and the number of wounded to 97,886. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.

Israeli Snipers Routinely, Deliberately Shoot Palestinian Kids In The Head - Caitlin Johnstone -- There’s yet another doctor testimonial about Israeli forces constantly shooting Palestinian children in the head, this one published in The New York Times. The report, titled “65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza,” begins as follows:“I worked as a trauma surgeon in Gaza from March 25 to April 8. I’ve volunteered in Ukraine and Haiti, and I grew up in Flint, Mich. I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones. But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die. Thirteen in total.   “At the time, I assumed this had to be the work of a particularly sadistic soldier located nearby. But after returning home, I met an emergency medicine physician who had worked in a different hospital in Gaza two months before me. ‘I couldn’t believe the number of kids I saw shot in the head,’ I told him. To my surprise, he responded: ‘Yeah, me, too. Every single day.’” Numerous named medical staff who worked in Gaza then testify in the report about routine encounters with children who’d been shot in the head and chest by Israeli forces, as well as children and infants suffering from severe malnutrition and easily preventable infections.Such reports have been coming out all year. Because Israel has not been allowing foreign press into Gaza, medical staff have in many ways become the de facto western journalists on the ground in the enclave — and they are all saying the same thing. Back in July a group of 45 doctors and nurses who’d been working in Gazasigned an open letter to President Biden testifying that “every single signatory to this letter treated children in Gaza who suffered violence that must have been deliberately directed at them.” “Specifically, every one of us on a daily basis treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head and chest,” the letter continues. Also in July, Politico published an article by two American surgeons named Mark Perlmutter and Feroze Sidhwa titled “‘Nothing Prepared Us for What We Saw’: Two Weeks Inside a Gaza Hospital,” which contains the following passage:“We started seeing a series of children, preteens mostly, who’d been shot in the head. They’d go on to slowly die, only to be replaced by new victims who’d also been shot in the head, and who would also go on to slowly die. Their families told us one of two stories: the children were playing inside when they were shot by Israeli forces, or they were playing in the street when they were shot by Israeli forces.” In April an article titled “‘Not a normal war’: doctors say children have been targeted by Israeli snipers in Gaza” was published in The Guardian, citing nine doctors who’d worked in Gaza after October 7 who “reported treating a steady stream of children, elderly people and others who were clearly not combatants with single bullet wounds to the head or chest.”Forensic pathologists were able to identify bullets used by the Israeli military in these attacks on children:“The Guardian shared descriptions and images of gunshot wounds suffered by eight children with military experts and forensic pathologists. They said it was difficult to conclusively determine the circumstances of the shootings based on the descriptions and photos alone, although in some of the cases they were able to identify ammunition used by the Israeli military.”In February the Los Angeles Times published an article titled “I’m an American doctor who went to Gaza. What I saw wasn’t war — it was annihilation”. The author, a reconstructive surgeon named Irfan Galaria, writes as follows:“On one occasion, a handful of children, all about ages 5 to 8, were carried to the emergency room by their parents. All had single sniper shots to the head. These families were returning to their homes in Khan Yunis, about 2.5 miles away from the hospital, after Israeli tanks had withdrawn. But the snipers apparently stayed behind. None of these children survived.”

It's So, So Bad, And It's About To Get A Whole Lot Worse - Caitlin Johnstone -- Things are so, so bad in the middle east right now, and from the looks of things they’re about to get a whole lot worse. Israel is going full scorched-earth on northern Gaza in advancement of itslong-planned ethnic cleansing of the area. The IDF is besieging and attacking civilian populations throughout the north, and the UN World Food Programme reports that no food aid whatsoever has been allowed in so far this month.Hossam Shabat, one of the last remaining journalists in northern Gaza, reports the following on Twitter:“The Israeli occupation has besieged us in this area, which includes Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and the Jabalia refugee camp, for the past eight days. Since October 1st, they have stopped all food, water, and medical supplies from entering. They have threatened hospitals to shut down, stopped fuel from entering in order for hospitals to operate, and are targeting anyone who moves. So far, 400 people have been killed. People are bleeding in the streets, and we can’t reach them.”Another post from Shabat:“Due to the Israeli occupation siege on Jabalia camp, most injuries caused by the occupation’s bullets and shelling lead to death, as there are no medical resources or capabilities available to effectively treat the wounded.”Another post, the most recent as of this writing:“We are literally living our final moments. O Allah, grant us a good end.”The western media have been working fanatically to facilitate these atrocities.     A CNN report on the World Food Programme’s findings titled “UN says no food has entered northern Gaza since start of October, putting 1 million people at risk of starvation” does not mention the word “Israel” until the twelfth paragraph, and then somehow manages to go the entire rest of the article without making it clear that Israel is blocking the food.  A BBC report describes Israel’s policy of laying total siege to a population of hundreds of thousands of civilians as merely “controversial”, with an amazingly delicate headline that reads “‘Surrender or starve’: Attack on Jabalia hints at controversial Israeli plan for northern Gaza”. In a recent interview on CNN, a doctor who worked in Gaza for two weekscorrected CNN anchor Kate Bolduan for absurdly referring to the results of Israel’s war crimes as a “humanitarian crisis”, saying “This is not a humanitarian crisis, Kate, and I’m gonna say it very clearly for your viewers to hear: this is genocide.”   In southern Lebanon, Israel has been deliberately targeting healthcare facilities so extensively that nearly half of the medical centers in areas of conflict have already been closed. More UN peacekeepers have been wounded by Israeli fire as Israel continues to deliberately target staff from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. The Israeli military is now saying they’re going to start attacking ambulances because the ambulances are Hezbollah. And as horrifying as both these developing stories are, they’re going to be shifted to the back burner as soon as Israel begins its planned attack on Iran. As we discussed previously, Iran has already said it will respond to any further attacks by Israel with attacks of its own, and that its days of restraint in this stand-off are over.The US now reportedly has boots on the ground in Israel, with American troops set to operate the THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems that are being sent by Israel’s superpower ally. It seems inevitable that the US will become further and further involved in this conflict the more Israel escalates against Iran, and nobody in the White House seems particularly invested in preventing it from doing so. And of course the mass media are helping to pave the way toward this next war as well. The Washington Post has published unverified documents that were given to them by the Israeli military which purport to show Hamas plotting to petition Iran for assistance in the October 7 attack, admitting all the way down in paragraph 14 that “the documents’ authenticity could not be definitively established.” The New York Times published its own report on the documents, which it claims it “verified” by asking the Israeli military and some Palestinian sources who aren’t even in Gaza if they appeared authentic.