US oil price at a six month high; natural gas short sales now exceed national physical natural gas inventories by 39%; US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since October 15 1982; total US oil supplies are the lowest since October 7th, 1983; US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products are the lowest since May 23, 2003; more barrels of oil were refined than in any October week on record, gasoline imports were at at a 23 month low..
US oil prices finished higher for a third straight week on continued attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and on Persian Gulf shipping…after rising 10.4% to $101.41 a barrel last week after Houthi missiles struck the Saudi’s International Airport in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran, Iran sunk two cargo ships and struck at least a dozen others in the Strait of Hormuz, and US oil supplies fell by the most since February, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery traded lower on global markets early Monday after U.S. President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia in a move that could pave the way for higher Russian fuel exports, and was down by more than $1 most of the day as traders booked profits following last week’s rise to multi-month highs, but rallied late during the US session to settle $2.25 higher at $103.66 a barrel on the news that Yemen’s Houthis carried out attacks against an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Saudi's Shaybah oilfield, the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and the Abha International Airport in southwest Saudi Arabia…oil prices edged higher on Asian markets Tuesday after Yemen’s Houthi group claimed attacks on Saudi energy facilities, airports and military targets, while a strike on a military training camp in Yemen that killed at least 58 added to regional security concerns. and remained at a five-month high during trading in Europe as uncertainty over when energy supplies would return to normal amid the war with Iran kept oil inflated, and soared to their highest since May Tuesday morning in New York amid intensifying Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and as lingering Houthi threats on Saudi infrastructure supported a higher geopolitical risk premium, but reversed after hitting a six month high and finished $1.87 lower at $101.79 a barrel as traders weighed a meeting between the Iranian president and Pakistan's army chief, a key US-Iran mediator, against continued Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of vessel attacks in the Gulf as trading of the November oil contract expired, while the contract price for the US benchmark light sweet crude for December delivery settled 72 cents lower at $97.82 a barrel….with markets now citing the price of that December contract, oil gained over $1 in early trading on global markets on Wednesday, as escalating Middle East tensions fueled fears of supply disruptions, while falling crude and product inventories in the United States added support, then jumped by more than $2 in early London trading after Iran said there was little reason to expect diplomatic progress with the US, leaving the Brent benchmark hovering near five-month highs, but were mixed in a choppy morning session in New York amid uncertainty over rumored mediation efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war, and settled 67 cents lower at $97.15 a barrel as the market weighed possible progress towards Russia-Ukraine talks against the little hope of talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East….oil prices rose more than 2% during Asian trading on Thursday after a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field intensified concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, then hit their highest levels since May following a report by Iran's state television that seven oil tankers caught fire and were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, then jumped further in early US trading after a U.S. State Department order to evacuate diplomats and their families from Saudi Arabia stoked concerns that the conflict was escalating further, and settled $2.32 higher at $99.47 a barrel, further supported after Saudi Aramco said it told its staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain….oil futures traded higher in Asia on Friday morning amid reports of escalating tensions in West Asia and reports that the US was considering plans to attack Iran after the US midterm elections, and extended their advance Friday morning in New York on growing risks to Middle Eastern oil supply amid the recent escalation in fighting in the region, and settled $3.80 higher at a six month high of $103.27 a barrel as Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, growing threats to international shipping and an oil spill off the United Arab Emirates increased fears of additional supply disruptions…oil prices thus settled 1.8% higher for the week, while the contract price for the US benchmark light sweet crude for December delivery, which had finished the prior week at $99.02 a barrel, ended the week 4.3% higher…
on the other hand, natural gas prices finished lower for the third time in four weeks on forecasts for mild weather to persist well into November across most of the US, and on massive short selling….after falling 3.2% to $3.116 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for mild weather for the near term and also for the coming winter, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for November delivery opened 2.5 cents higher on Monday, but then trended lower through most of the session, as both the U.S. and European weather models aligned to call for a bearish back end of the month, and settled 5.8 cents lower at $3.058 per mmBTU, despite elevated LNG feedgas demand, as weaker-than-normal heating demand expectations and the prospect of recovering production weighed on nearby contracts, while deferred futures prices showed resilience….natural gas prices started Tuesday 6.3 cents lower, as the latest bearish weather outlook overshadowed healthy LNG export levels, and finished the session 9.5 cents lower at $2.963 per mmBTU amid warmer weather forecasts and expectations that storage injections could continue well into November…natural gas prices opened 11 cents lower on Wednesday, knocked down overnight by bearish revisions to an already unsupportive weather forecast, and finished the session 17.3 cents lower at $2.790 per mmBTU after a steep futures sell-off fueled by forecasts for exceptionally mild weather through early November….natural gas prices were little changed ahead of the storage report early Thursday, then rose to an intraday high of $2.838 at 12:30 PM on the report of a historically bullish injection, as traders overlooked current bearish weather forecasts, instead focusing on narrowing storage levels vs. the five-year average, but faded to settle 0.6 cents higher at $2.796 per mmBTU, even as December and the remaining winter contracts declined despite a smaller-than-expected storage injection, with unusually mild weather forecasts continuing to weigh on heating demand expectations…natural gas futures slumped anew early Friday, as further easing in weather demand offset strong LNG volumes and a lean government inventory report, then floundered further at midday as traders gave more weight to weak near-term weather demand than solid LNG activity, and settled 15.6 cents lower at $2.640 per mmBTU as warmer weather forecasts pointed to sluggish heating demand and a potentially growing supply cushion that could keep prices under pressure into winter, and was thus down 15.3% for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 16th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet to 3,644 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 152 billion cubic feet, or 4.0% below the 3,796 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 16th of last year, but 35 billion cubic feet, or 1.0% above the five-year average of 3,609 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 16th of October over the most recent five years….the 77 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was close to the 75 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, but it was less than the 86 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 87 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical in mid October over the past five years…
NB: this week there is an article on the massive short sale position in natural gas futures, which is really the underlying reason for the current low prices, mild weather forecasts notwithstanding, so i used Google AI to put it what that means in perspective...in short, Google's figures show that speculators have sold short 39% more natural gas than physically exists in this country...so i'm going to copy that exchange as is, and paste it here, so you can see what it's about; the rest of the weekly news in its usual format will follow it....much of this, taken directly as it is from a Google web page, will not format correctly on a blog platform, but the key points should be obvious nonetheless...in the exchange below, my prompts are italicized and underlined, as everything else that follows is from Google:
Open2.79 | Low2.62 | Vol129202 |
High2.79 | Prev close2.80 | Open interest48393 |
- Price Pressure: Natural gas futures experienced a sharp selloff leading up to the report, dropping over 6% in a single session to settle around $3.05/MMBtu as unseasonably warm weather destroyed near-term heating demand. [1, 2]
- The Short-Squeeze Risk: When speculative short interest reaches these extreme historic levels, the market becomes highly vulnerable to a short squeeze. Any sudden shift toward freezing weather or unexpected supply disruptions could force speculators to rapidly buy back their shorts, triggering a violent upward price spike. [1]
- Retail & Equity Impact: This positioning heavily impacts consumer vehicles like the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which slid over 3% to $9.58 following the news. Conversely, some major natural gas equities like EQT managed minor gains as producers look to manage long-term hedging risk. [1]
- Single Contract Value: At a market price of roughly $3.05/MMBtu, a single standard contract controls $30,500 worth of natural gas.
- The Short Position: The 505,747 short contracts held by speculators represent a staggering 5.06 trillion BTUs of natural gas, with a nominal market value of over $15.4 billion.
- The Net Position: The net short position of 241,272 contracts means speculators are net-short roughly 2.41 trillion BTUs, giving the "crowded trade" a net financial exposure of roughly $7.3 billion betting on lower prices.
- FarmbucksHenry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX NG)$10.00 per contract Value of a 1¢ move $100 per contract Contract months Every month. Trading hours 5:00 pm – 4:00 pm CT, Sun–Fri,
how does the natural gas represented by that short position compare to daily natural gas production?
- This means the total short position represents roughly 45 days' worth of the entire United States' natural gas production completely shorted by speculators.
- This net speculative downside bet is equivalent to roughly 22 days of total U.S. natural gas production.
yes, explain how the current national storage inventory levels compares to this short position
| Metric | Physical Volume Equivalent | % of Total National Storage |
|---|---|---|
| Total National Storage Inventory | 3,644 Bcf | 100% |
| Speculator Gross Short Position | 5,057 Bcf | 138.8% |
| Speculator Net Short Position | 2,413 Bcf | 66.2% |
- The Paper Deficit: The total gross short position (5,057 Bcf) actually exceeds the entire amount of physical natural gas sitting in U.S. storage by nearly 39%. Financial speculators have sold more "paper gas" than currently exists in underground caverns.
- The Net Footprint: The net short position (2,413 Bcf) represents roughly two-thirds (66.2%) of all the natural gas stored in the country.
- The Declining Surplus: This 35 Bcf surplus over the 5-year average has shrunk from 45 Bcf the prior week, marking a steady 10-week decline. [1]
- Deep Deficits in the Gulf Coast: In the critical South Central region (home to high-deliverability salt caverns that feed LNG export terminals), inventories are actually 3.4% below the 5-year average, with salt cavern storage down 14.9%. [1, 2]
we now resume our regular programming...
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 16th showed that despite a drop in our oil exports, another sizable drop in production from US wells meant we again had to pull oil from our stored crude supplies for the twenty-third time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 45th time in seventy-three weeks, albeit by much less than the prior week, which had been the largest draw in seven months…. Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 291,000 barrels per day to average 5,758,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 791,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,128,000 barrels per day to average 3,442,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,316,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 16th, an average of 837,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 5,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 537,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 410,000 barrels per day lower 13,269,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,122,000 barrels per day during the October 16th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,649,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 16th, an average of 34,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average net of 480,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 16th averaged 47,000 fewer barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a rounded [ +47,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Since 308,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 355,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and are therefore not very useful….However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).
This week’s rounded 480,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 437,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercial stocks of crude oil, while 43,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the twenty-ninth Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR in the past 30 weeks, which left the SPR level at 282,683,000 barrels, the lowest since October 15, 1982, during its initai fillup......with both commercial oil and the SPR inventories down this week, that left the Total of all US Oil Supplies at 695,200,000 barrels, down 20.2% from 870,774,000 barrels on April 17th, and the lowest since October 7th, 1983….
Further details from the weekly Petroleum Data Overview (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,086,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.8% more than the 5,920,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports rose to 4,087,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.1% more than the 4,003,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 410,000 barrels per day lower at 13,269,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 457,000 barrels per day lower at 12,757,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 47,000 barrels per day higher at 512,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was still 1.3% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 36.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 93.4% of their capacity while processing those 16,649,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 16th, down from 93.5% the prior week, which had been the highest October utilization rate since 2003….however, the 16,615,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were still the most barrels refined in any October week on record, 5.8% more than the 15,730,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending October 17th of 2025, and 4.9% more than the 15,865,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending October 18th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 85.2%, which was well below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year, probably due to the historic flooding across southeast Texas in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda of that year…
With the increase in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries finally higher, increasing by 518,000 barrels per day to 9,750,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 16th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 117,000 barrels per day to a 33 week low during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 1.6% more than the 9,594,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending October 17th of last year, but 3.4% less than the gasoline production of 10,098,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending October 18th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 5,232,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 101,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 13.0% more than the 4,632,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 17th of 2025, and 9.8% more than the 4,765,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 18th, 2019....
Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the twenty-seventh time in thirty-six weeks, decreasing by 2,952,000 barrels to 205,310,000 barrels during the week ending October 16th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 3,518,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 575,000 barrels per day to 8,982,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 134,000 barrels per day to 926,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 227,000 barrels per day to a 23 month low of 281,000 barrels per day.. After fifty-seven gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 5.2% lower than last October 17th’s gasoline inventories of 216,679,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…
After this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillates rose for the nineteenth time in thirty-six weeks, increasing by 1,675,000 barrels to 104,286,000 barrels during the week ending October 16th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,527,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies rose this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 591,000 barrels per day to 1,379,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 6,000 barrels per day to 1,379,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 28,000 barrels per day to 117,000 barrels per day... After 33 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 66 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 9.7% below the 115,551,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 17th of 2025, and were about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the hurricane induced drop in our well production, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 3,060,000 barrels over the week, from 415,577,000 barrels on October 9th to 412,517,000 barrels on October 16th after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,186,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 3% below recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 17% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s decrease followed the largest in eight months last week, so as of October 16th our commercial crude inventories were 2.4% below the 422,824,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on October 17th of 2025, and 3.2% less than the 426,024,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 18th of 2024, and 2.0% less than the 421,120,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 20th of 2023…
With this week’s drop in both commercial crude and SPR oil inventories, that also meant that the week ended with the total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products down by 8,754,000 barrels to 1,498,245,000 barrels, the lowest for that total liquids supply figure since May 23, 2003…
This Week's Rig Count
The US rig count was unchanged for a second week over the week ending October 23rd, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by one, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was down by one, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 23rd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 16th) and this week’s (October 23rd) count, the third column shows last week’s October 16th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 24th of October, 2025…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Driller Wants to Frack Under Ohio’s Monroe Lake Wildlife Area -- Marcellus Drilling News - Ohio’s state-land leasing program has a new target. A driller (whose name is kept secret by state law, for now) has asked the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) to open about 618 acres under the Monroe Lake Wildlife Area in Monroe County to shale drilling. Public comments are open through Nov. 30. The twist this time? Because of the calendar, the final call may land on the desk of whoever wins next month’s race for governor.
Gas drillers ask Ohio to open public-owned Monroe Lake Wildlife Area for fracking - The request comes as the industry-receptive Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has opened 22,000 acres of state parks and wildlife reserves to oil and gas exploration since 2021. The next governor could shape future deals. A company has asked state officials to open Monroe Lake Wildlife Area in eastern Ohio to oil and gas development, making the preserve the newest target for industry exploration on public lands. Drillers are proposing to tap into oil and gas reserves under about 618 acres of the 1,333-acre Monroe County expanse, which is popular among hunters and fishers. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, a panel of gubernatorial appointees, will rule on the application. In practice, the panel has almost always granted industry requests, which opens a round of competitive bidding for the mineral rights. Statehouse Republicans in 2021 forcibly revived what was essentially a dormant program that allowed state agencies to lease acreage owned by the public to the oil and gas industry. Since then, Ohio has opened 22,000 acres of its state parks and wildlife areas to fracking plays, exclusively awarded to out-of-state drillers. That includes 6,200 acres of Salt Fork State Park, 14,800 at the neighboring Jockey Hollow and Egypt Valley WIldlife areas, and smaller tracts of land mostly around eastern and southeastern Ohio. All told, Ohio has received $314 million so far from the sales, mostly through signing bonuses. Some of the first royalty payments on production rolling were received this summer. About one-third of the money goes to the park that hosted the drilling, with the rest generally flowing to state coffers. When Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed the new program into law, he said his administration would only approve projects that don’t disturb surface land at parks. At all projects considered to date, applicants propose plans that entail drilling thousands of feet downward from well pads just outside the park before turning 90 degrees and reaching shale underneath. From the bore hole, drillers pump a mixture of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to free gas from the shale. They pump up the mix of gas and brine, and industrial waste, back up to the surface. Every Ohio public lands leasing deal to date with the fracking industry has fallen on DeWine’s administration. The future of Monroe Lake, however, may be in the hands of the next governor. A public comment period on the application is open until Nov. 30. The OGLMC must act within 90 days of the receipt of the nomination, meaning its deadline comes after the inauguration of a new governor unless the DeWine administration rushes it through. The Republican candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has indicated support for fracking state parks by shooting videos supporting Ohio’s fracking industry from one of the biggest such projects in Ohio at Salt Fork. He’s running against Democratic Dr. Amy Acton. The campaign in a statement said that while Acton supports fracking among other energy production resources, she thinks state forests and wildlife areas should be left alone.
Drillers Target 618 Acres Beneath Ohio's Monroe Lake Wildlife Area for Fracking - Gas drillers have asked Ohio to open up the Monroe Lake Wildlife Area, a 1,333-acre public preserve in eastern Ohio popular with hunters and fishers, to oil and gas development. The proposal would tap reserves under about 618 acres of the property, making it the newest public tract in the state's sights for fracking. The application calls for drilling thousands of feet downward from well pads positioned just outside the wildlife area, then turning 90 degrees to reach shale formations beneath the park itself, according to Signal Cleveland. From there, drillers pump a mixture of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to free gas trapped in the shale, then pump gas, brine and industrial waste back up to the surface. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, made up of gubernatorial appointees, will decide whether to approve the nomination. The commission has almost always granted industry requests like this one, the outlet reports, and approval would trigger a competitive bidding round for the underlying mineral rights. That track record matters here: the panel must act within 90 days of receiving the Monroe Lake nomination, and depending on timing, that deadline could fall after Ohio's next governor is sworn in unless Gov. Mike DeWine's administration moves first. A public comment period on the application remains open through Nov. 30, 2026. Separately, Ohio law requires that a nomination be available for public inspection for at least 21 days before the commission votes to approve or reject it, according to the Ohio Revised Code. The commission itself is described by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources as the body that deliberates on leasing the state's mineral rights. Monroe Lake is only the latest chapter in a rapid expansion of fracking on Ohio's public land. Statehouse Republicans revived a dormant leasing program in 2021, and the state has since opened 22,000 acres of parks and wildlife areas to drilling, including 6,200 acres at Salt Fork State Park and 14,800 acres across the Jockey Hollow and Egypt Valley wildlife areas, per the same reporting from Signal Cleveland's coverage of the issue. Ohio has collected $314 million so far from those public-land sales, most of it in signing bonuses, with some of the first production royalties arriving in mid-2026. Roughly one-third of that oil and gas revenue flows back to whichever park hosted the drilling, while the rest generally lands in state coffers. DeWine, who signed the leasing program into law, has said his administration would approve only projects that avoid disturbing surface land at the parks themselves. The scale of Ohio's public-land leasing has only grown this year. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission approved more than 8,000 acres at Egypt Valley Wildlife Area and more than 500 acres at Salt Fork State Park, according to the Ohio Capital Journal, which detailed four separate Egypt Valley bid selections spanning 3,846, 2,792, 849 and 746 acres, plus a 513-acre award at Salt Fork in Guernsey County. By late June, state officials had selected winning bids covering nearly 15,000 acres across Egypt Valley, Jockey Hollow and part of Salt Fork, and the cleveland.com reported the commission awarded 22 leases expected to bring in more than $241 million in upfront payments alone. At Salt Fork, drilling company Infinity Natural Resources built its first well pad on private land about a third of a mile outside the park's southern boundary and is drilling four wells there, according to WOSU Public Media. Its state leases require testing of water wells and other water sources, including Salt Fork Lake, within 3,000 feet of any well before drilling starts. At Egypt Valley, an unidentified driller has filed four more applications that would collectively open over 8,300 additional acres, The Intelligencer reported.The buildout carries documented trade-offs. Ohio has budgeted $3 million in fiscal year 2026 royalties from wildlife-area fracking toward conservation efforts, according to The Statehouse News Bureau, which also cited researchers who found that fracking activity shifts forest songbird communities over time, pushing out more sensitive species in favor of generalists. FracTracker Alliance separately tallied roughly 2,000 incidents tied to Ohio oil and gas wells between 2015 and 2023, per the Ohio Capital Journal.. Guernsey County, home to Salt Fork, had nearly 300 producing wells by the end of 2023, and a researcher cited by The Allegheny Front expects more than 100 new wells across Ohio's shale counties, Guernsey included, in the next report. The fate of Ohio's public-land leasing program, including the pending Monroe Lake decision, could ultimately land with whoever becomes the state's next governor. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running against Democratic candidate Dr. Amy Acton, supports fracking state parks and has shot industry-supporting videos at Salt Fork, one of Ohio's largest fracking projects. Acton's campaign has said she supports fracking among other energy production methods but believes state forests and wildlife areas should be left alone.
Utica Shale Academy debuts new program in Salineville, Ohio - (WKBN) – Utica Shale Academy held a grand opening Monday morning for a new program and facility. Their new Tire Changing Program teaches students how to run a garage of their own. The new facility is D.B. Dixon Garage, a workspace with vehicle lifts, balancers, a tire changer and more equipment to provide students with hands-on learning. Speakers at the event included Lieutenant Governor Jim Tressel and Congressman Mike Rulli. This is all possible thanks to the Future Forward Schools Prize, funded by Building Hope and Britebound. “With this brand new grant, it sounds really simple. It’s called tire changing. But it’s not just like, so you could change a tire when you’re going down the road,” Rulli said. “It’s actually, if you want to run a garage and you want to be involved with a different dealer, you know, the dealers are growing by leaps and bounds.” Utica Shale became a top 10 finalist for the award back in April and is one of five schools across the country to receive $50,000 from the $250,000 total prize pool. “There is such a change in philosophy throughout the country for hands-on, to do things that AI cannot do,” Rep. Michael Rulli said. “Like, if you want to be a welder, if you want to work on a natural gas pad, if you want to be a carpenter, if you want to do any of the labor-skilled trades, it is crucial that you actually start thinking about that when you’re in seventh and eighth grade. And that’s what’s going on at the Utica Shale Academy. They’re giving these kids actual hope.”
PA-OH-WV Shale Permits Oct 12-18: 12 New Wells, 19 Older-Well Moves - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received 12 new shale well permits last week, October 12-18, up 3 from 9 the week before. Pennsylvania issued 9 of the new permits. Ohio issued 2. And West Virginia issued a single new permit. The drillers who received new-well permits last week were: Antero Resources, Ascent Resources, Expand Energy, Range Resources, and Seneca Resources. Before we go further, a quick housekeeping note: Starting this week, MDN counts only permits for brand-new wells in the headline number. State agencies also issue renewals (more time to drill a well that was already permitted), modifications (changes to a well that was already permitted, like a new wellbore path), and in Ohio, “deepen” permits. Those wells were already counted the first time around, so counting them again would double-count. We now list them separately, in their own section below. Antero Resources | Ascent Resources | Expand Energy | Jefferson County (OH) | Range Resources Corp | Ritchie County | Seneca Resources | Sullivan County | Tioga County (PA) | Washington County
DEP: Contaminated Water Release Discovered At Deer Run Oil & Gas LLC Conventional Oil & Gas Well Site In Crawford County - On September 30, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Deer Run Oil & Gas LLC Newcomb 17 conventional oil and gas well in Beaver Township, Crawford County and discovered a contaminated water release.The release came from a contaminated water storage tank that spilled fluid into secondary containment.Pooled water in the containment area had a telltale sheen and field testing confirmed the water was contaminated with very high conductivity readings.“The operator is required to remedy the cause of the leak, remove the contaminated fluid and soil, and fill the affected area with fresh material. Disposal receipts for the proper disposal of contaminated material are requested.”Multiple violations were issued. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.Deer Run Oil & Gas holds 119 permits.To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.
DEP: Bialy Gas Production Intent To Plug Abandoned Conventional Well Leads To Discovery Of Severely Corroded Contaminated Water Tanks With Holes, Leaking Fluids In Beaver County - On October 8, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Bialy Gas Production LLC J. Edward Turnour 2 conventional oil and gas well in Economy Borough, Beaver County in response to a Notice of Intent to Plug the well.DEP discovered two of the five contaminated water and production tanks on the site were severely corroded and had multiple holes.One tank was leaking an oil-like substance and the second tank was releasing an orange fluid. Field testing confirmed contamination around the tanks.DEP also noted the owner did not have the required erosion and sedimentation control plan for the site and recommended one be developed and implemented. Multiple violations were issued for the corroded, leaking tanks with holes in them and a written response to the violations was requested by October 30. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. In March 2025, DEP issued violations to Bialy Gas Production LLC for abandoning and not plugging 26 conventional wells in Beaver County, including this well. Read more here. Bialy Gas holds 36 conventional oil and gas well permits.
DEP: Routine Inspections Find 3 Keystone Crude LLC Abandoned, Unplugged Conventional Gas Wells In Allegheny County - On October 9, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did routine inspections of three Keystone Crude LLC conventional wells in Moon Township, Allegheny County and found them all abandoned and not plugged. DEP found each of the wells were disconnected from production equipment and had not reported any production since 2011, although their annual production, waste and well integrity reports were submitted. Multiple violations were issued and a written response was requested by October 30. Click Here for DEP inspection reports + photos for M. Weisenberger 4, M. Weisenberger 5, and M. Weisenberger 6. August 4, 2026 follow-up inspections by the Department of Environmental Protection of three Keystone Crude LLC conventional gas well sites in North Fayette and Robinson townships, Allegheny County found the owner is making progress in addressing spills and releases at the sites dating back to June 11, 2024. Read more here. Keystone Crude LLC holds 34 permits.
DEP: Routine Inspections Find 16 Anderson Energy SVC LLC Conventional Wells Abandoned, Not Plugged In Forest County - On October 13 & 15, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected 7 Anderson Energy SVC LLC conventional wells in Harmony Township, Forest County and found them all abandoned and not plugged.Each of the wells was not equipped to produce, not connected to any gathering line and the access road and the well sites were overgrown with vegetation.This same statement was in each of the inspection reports-- “In order for this well to be brought into compliance, measures are expected to be taken to either bring the well into production or plug the well.”DEP issued multiple violations and requested a response by November 4.The conventional wells include: Milford 1, Milford 2, Milford 3, Milford 4, Milford 5, Milford 6, Milford 7, Milford 8, Milford 9, Milford 10, Milford 12, Milford 15, Milford North 31, Milford North 36, Milford North 37, Milford North 53. Anderson Energy holds 518 permits, including one other abandoned well.
DEP: Follow-Up Inspections Of 4 Michael Harju Conventional Wells Found They Continue To Be Abandoned, Not Plugged Going Back To 2020 In Westmoreland County - On October 13 & 16, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did follow-up inspections on 4 Michael Harju conventional oil and gas wells in Westmoreland County and found they continued to be abandoned and not plugged.The wells include--
- -- Upper Burrell Twp: N. Watson 1 (Abandoned since 11.8.2020),
- -- Washington Twp: George Hill 1 (Abandoned since 6.15.2023), JB Kerns 2 (Abandoned since 6.15.2023), WW Swank 4 (Abandoned since 11.18.2020)
DEP also found the owner failed to submit any production, waste generation or well integrity reports for the wells, which DEP noted is a violation of an order issued to the owner.DEP continued the abandoned well violations and requested a written response by November 6.Michael Harju holds 158 permits, including 13 other abandoned wells.DEP has issued multiple orders to Michael Harju to plug abandoned wells and failed to get a response and had to start plugging several wells at taxpayer expense. Read more here.
DEP Investigating Oct. 4 Seismic Event In Westmoreland County To Determine If There Is A Relationship To Local Shale Gas Operations - On October 9, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the EQT Production Co. Porter shale gas well pad in Allegheny Township, Westmoreland County as part of an investigation into an October 4 seismic event. DEP said a “seismic event” was reported on Sunday, October 4 and the Porter pad was within 6 miles of the epicenter of the earthquake. At the time of DEP’s visit, fracking was underway at three of the shale gas wells and three others were completed. DEP reviewed pressure logs from the wells for October 4, but did not see any abnormal fluctuations. DEP also requested stage reports for all the shale gas wells fracked on the pad in August, September and October. DEP’s Oil and Gas Mapping Tool shows there are about a dozen shale gas well pads within a six mile radius of the Porter pad, but it is not known how many other pads had drilling or fracking going on at the time of the seismic event.No other requests of the pad owner were made in the DEP inspection report.On March 4, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Penneco Environmental Solutions LLC Sedat 3A oil and gas wastewater injection well in Plum Boro, Allegheny County as a result of a seismic event recorded at the Sedat 3A monitoring station on Feb. 7, 2026 at 5:26 a.m.The epicenter of the event was near Murrysville, Westmoreland County approximately six miles from the injection well.Penneco reported normal operations at the injection well on the day of the seismic event. Read more here.Plum Boro is just east of the Porter well pad-- and others. Murrysville is about 10 miles southwest of the Porter well pad. On February 20, 2025 DEP conducted a “stimulation” [fracking] inspection of the Hephaestus shale gas well pad and six gas wells in Upper Burrell Township, Westmoreland County “due to recent observations of seismic activity within the vicinity of the well” pad. Fracking on wells 1, 3 and 5 was completed on February 9. Fracking began on wells 7, 9 and 11 on February 9. “No pressure anomalies noted on the wells being monitored on/off pad” by the well owner representatives.
New Seneca Water Pipeline Signals More Fracking in Tioga County - Marcellus Drilling News - Tioga County, PA township map (click for larger version) Want to know where a driller plans to frack next? Follow the water. Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) just issued a permit allowing Seneca Resources, the drilling arm of National Fuel Gas (NFG), to build a 16-inch freshwater pipeline through Farmington and Chatham townships in northern Tioga County. You don’t lay a 16-inch water line to fill a kiddie pool. Add in a string of new Seneca well pad water approvals in those same townships, a new interstate gas pipeline ending in Chatham Township, and Seneca’s coming life as a standalone company, and the message is pretty clear: more wells (and more royalty checks) are headed for this corner of Tioga County.
Homer City Update: First Turbine Set, Amazon Plan Now Under Review -- Marcellus Drilling News --The Homer City Energy Campus in Indiana County, PA — the largest natural gas-fired power plant under construction anywhere in the U.S. — just ticked off a few nice milestones. Construction contractor Kiewit marked one year on the job, the workforce has topped 2,000, and the first of seven giant gas turbines is now sitting on its foundation. Meanwhile, Amazon’s plan to build 36 data centers next door is officially on the county’s review clock; the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) just held a hearing on the plant’s water discharge permit, and the usual suspects are still fighting the plant’s air permit. Here’s where things stand.
World Pays $29 for Natgas, Henry Hub $3, Appalachia $1. Here’s Why -- Marcellus Drilling News - On Monday, gas buyers in Europe paid $28.91 per MMBtu for natural gas. Buyers in Japan and South Korea paid $30.01. Here at home, the November contract at Louisiana’s Henry Hub (the U.S. benchmark) closed at about $3.06. And last Thursday, gas sold at Texas Eastern M-2, the main price point for southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, fetched just $1.055. Same molecule of methane. Europe and Asia are paying nearly 10 times what the rest of America gets, and about 27 times what our Appalachian gas sold for last week. Why the giant gap? And what does it mean for your royalty check?
Appalachian Spot Prices Jump While NYMEX Futures Slide Below -- Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a head-scratcher for you. On Tuesday, the price of natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) took a tumble, slipping below $3 for the first time in more than two weeks. Yet on that very same day, the “spot” (cash) price for gas right here in Appalachia went UP—and one trading point jumped more than 20% in a single day. How does that happen? And should drillers and royalty owners break out the champagne? Let’s unpack it.
Update: MXP Pipeline Fixed Early, Appalachian Gas Prices Bounce - Marcellus Drilling News - On Friday, we told you a leak on Columbia Gas Transmission’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline had pushed Appalachian gas down to $1.06 (see Mountaineer XPress Leak Sinks Appalachian Gas Price to $1.06). There’s an update, and most of it is good news. TCO fixed the leak and lifted its force majeure Friday afternoon, a day earlier than it had predicted. Local prices had already started to recover in Friday morning trading. But the second outage we flagged, on Texas Eastern in Kentucky, won’t be fixed until early November.
Uncle Sam Writes $42M Check to Jump-Start Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Trump administration just put real money where its mouth is on the Constitution Pipeline. Yesterday the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced it will spend up to $42 million in Defense Production Act (DPA) money to nudge Williams’ long-dead, now-revived 125-mile pipeline from Susquehanna County, PA to Schoharie County, NY closer to reality. The money won’t buy a single length of pipe—it pays for permitting and pre-construction work. And it doesn’t change the fact that New York and its Big Green allies are still fighting the project tooth and nail. But it sends a loud message: Washington now officially considers Constitution a national security asset.
About 2% of natural gas supplied to a Midwest city leaks into the atmosphere -Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data. Credit: Photographs in the Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data.Their observations could signal similar emissions patterns across U.S. cities and shape mitigation strategies, members of the team said. They evaluated continuous measurements of methane, the main component of natural gas, across the Midwest city to estimate emissions from natural gas distribution.The analysis relied on a network of monitoring devices affixed to tall towers that informed one of the world's most detailed records of urban methane, the team wrote recently in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Its replicable approach offers cities a reliable way to identify and measure emissions of methane—the second-most impactful greenhouse gas generated by humans—and to inform public policy on climate, said the researchers in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. They estimated about 2% of all natural gas piped into Indianapolis is eventually leaked. Over 100 years, methane has 28 times greater impact than carbon dioxide in trapping radiation, according to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and cited by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency."Two percent leakage is massive from a climate standpoint," said lead author Zachary Barkley, an associate research professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science. He explained that the estimate represents a significant volume of uncounted emissions and outpaces an EPA estimate of such leakage nationally. "Our findings add to indicators that more methane than imagined may be escaping into the atmosphere from U.S. cities, even cities with relatively modern distribution systems like Indianapolis."The research paper emerged from a roughly 15-year collaboration among the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Penn State and other partners including the University of Maryland. Starting in 2011, NIST supported the installation of the extensive monitoring network in Indianapolis to quantify greenhouse gas emissions in an urban environment. Until its wind-down in 2025, the network of up to 12 tower-based instruments documented trace gases including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane at heights up to 136 meters, or nearly 450 feet. In part by incorporating aircraft- and ground-based measurements in their analysis, researchers determined the consistency and reliability of tower-based readings over extended periods, the team wrote. The qualities are vital in identifying long-term patterns. "We found it really doesn't take much to monitor emissions effectively," Barkley said. "Sometimes all you need is a few good, solid instruments and measurement systems downwind of a city, and you can really figure out what's going on." The researchers determined that the city released an average of 3.4 metric tons of methane per hour, nearly half of that coming from a landfill known as the South Side Landfill—the single largest source of methane emissions in the area. Methane emissions were higher by 13% during the winter, but seasonal variations were less pronounced than those recorded in Los Angeles and the D.C. region in other studies during the past decade, according to the paper.Results also suggested relative year-to-year consistency in Indianapolis' overall methane emissions, despite wide variations in calculations that the EPA used to assess the landfill emissions through 2023, Barkley said. EPA figures are available through a data portal tracking greenhouse gas emissions. While cities in the Northeast tend to have older, more leak-prone exterior gas lines, researchers expected less leakage in Indianapolis because of its more modern, plastic transmission lines. But their discovery of what they called "an ambient plume of methane everywhere in Indianapolis" suggests leaks from inside buildings, in sources such as gas-fired furnaces and interior gas pipes, Barkley said."We know where the emissions are. Public policy can reduce them," he said, pointing to incentives for technologies such as heat pumps.
Exports Let the Air Out of U.S. Propane’s Cushion Early | RBN Energy - The EIA reported a 529-Mbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 16, lowering stocks to 105.8 MMbbl (red line in the first chart below). Stocks have drawn every week since the week ended September 25, when a 1.8-MMbbl build marked the last increase and lifted inventories to 109.6 MMbbl. The 3.8-MMbbl decline since then is the steepest for this period in at least 10 years (red bar in the second chart below). The closest comparison, 2020’s 3.6-MMbbl decline, was driven mainly by strong domestic demand. Inventories remain 2.7 MMbbl, or 3%, above both the same week in 2025 (blue line) and the five-year maximum, and 12.3 MMbbl, or 13%, above the five-year average (green line), but the cushion is thinning fast. Three weeks ago, stocks were 6.3 MMbbl above last year and 17.7 MMbbl above the five-year average.Exports are doing most of the pulling (see the exports chart below), and the drawdown is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, where PADD 3 stocks are down 4.5 MMbbl from a record 70.4 MMbbl set the week ended September 25, more than the national decline. U.S. exports have averaged 2.16 MMb/d over the past three weeks, 192 Mb/d above the same period last year. That is about 4 MMbbl of additional propane leaving the country, more than the entire 3.8-MMbbl decline. Since August, exports have averaged 217 Mb/d above last year. This week’s 2.03 MMb/d was above the previous five-year maximum of 1.92 MMb/d for the week. Production averaged 2.9 MMb/d, 60 Mb/d above last year, offsetting part of the export gain, while product supplied averaged 40 Mb/d more than a year ago. Last year, stocks kept building into late October, reaching 105.7 MMbbl in the week ended October 24, 2025. A total U.S. inventory draw larger than 165 Mbbl next week would push stocks below year-ago levels for the first time since the week ended October 10, 2025, with heating season still ahead.
Enbridge Nears Startup of Tennessee Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion - East Tennessee Natural Gas is preparing to place its Ridgeline Expansion into service as early as Nov. 1, adding 300,000 Dth/d of firm natural gas capacity to serve a natural gas-fired power plant that Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is building at its Kingston coal-fired plant. Map of East Tennessee Natural Gas's proposed Ridgeline Expansion Project, showing pipeline routes and compressor stations between Nashville and Knoxville. At a Glance:
FERC accepts TVA’s 20-year Ridgeline rate
TVA extends life of Kingston coal units
Natural gas plant completion slips to 2028
NC Fracking Rules Up for Review, Data Center Well Is the Real Fight -- Marcellus Drilling News --North Carolina’s Oil and Gas Commission is doing something it is required to do once every 10 years: review its entire rulebook for oil and gas drilling, including fracking. The Commission’s verdict so far is that every last rule is “necessary.” Case closed, right? Not if you’re an anti. Clean Water for North Carolina (CWFNC) is in full alarm mode, urging supporters to flood the Commission with “not one step back” comments before the November 9 deadline. Why the panic over rules that have never been used (not once) in 11 years? Follow the gas. A company wants to reopen an old vertical well in Lee County to power an AI data center. It would be the first commercial gas well in the state’s history
Kinder Morgan Backlog Surges on AI Data Centers, Southeast Power Demand - Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported one of the largest quarterly increases in its project backlog in company history, reaching $14.4 billion as growing power demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and utilities supports new natural gas pipeline investments. NGI chart compares Waha, Henry Hub and Southeast natural gas spot prices from April to October 2026. At a Glance:
Permian Link adds 2.8 Bcf/d takeaway capacity
Southeast Connector eyes 3.5 Bcf/d capacity
Hyperscaler backs pipeline
SpaceX AI Expansion Could Drive 3 Bcf/d of Natural Gas Demand by 2027 - SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said he would “be surprised” if his firm didn’t bring on at least 13 GW of power infrastructure for its artificial intelligence (AI) buildout by the end of 2027. At a Glance:
- Analysts project 1.5–3 Bcf/d consumption increase
- Power infrastructure could reach 23 GW
- Simple-cycle turbines could boost consumption
Wisconsin Greenlights 1.5 GW of Natural Gas-Fired Capacity --State regulators have approved plans by privately held power generator Invenergy to build two simple-cycle natural gas-fired peaker plants in southeastern Wisconsin with combined installed capacity of about 1.5 GW.NGI chart compares Chicago Citygate and Henry Hub winter 2025/26 natural gas spot prices, showing a January spike above $65/MMBtu in Chicago. At a Glance:
Plants expected online in 2028, 2030
Supply routes include ANR, Guardian
Region prone to winter demand spikes
U.S. LNG Feedgas Hits New Heights — With More on the Horizon | RBN Energy - U.S. LNG feedgas surged to an all-time high last weekend, reaching the long-awaited 20 bcf/d milestone as winter peak operations ramp up across several terminals. U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged 19.6 Bcf/d (blue-dotted line below) for the week ending October 19, up about 1.5 Bcf/d from the previous week, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly report. Strong intake at Sabine Pass and Plaquemines, along with continued commissioning progress at Golden Pass, helped push demand to record levels, with further growth expected this winter as we discuss in our blog, The Time Has Come.
LNG Feedgas Breaks 20 Bcf/d Barrier as Marcellus Gas Returns on MXP - It’s official, or at least as official as these things get. America’s LNG export plants are drinking more natural gas than ever before. Two separate data trackers now say feedgas, the gas piped into LNG plants to be supercooled into a liquid and loaded onto ships, has set a new all-time high above 20 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day). NGI clocked 20.7 Bcf/d on Monday, the third straight day above its prior record. RBN Energy says feedgas has topped 20 Bcf/d for the first time ever. The milestone comes almost exactly a decade after the first LNG cargo left Cheniere’s Sabine Pass terminal in 2016. It also arrived just as a big chunk of Marcellus gas came back online after a leak on TC Energy’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline in West Virginia.
Time Has Come Today – U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Surpasses the 20-Bcf/d Milestone | RBN Energy - A decade ago, the first LNG cargo produced in the Lower 48 was exported from Sabine Pass. Now, the U.S. is home to eight terminals, with seven more under construction, and feedgas demand for LNG has surpassed 20 Bcf/d for the first time. To celebrate this monumental milestone, reached in the past few days, today’s RBN blog looks at how we got here, the recent stall in feedgas volumes, and where U.S. export demand is headed in the years to come.As U.S. shale gas production climbed in the late 2000s and early 2010s, it became clear that, far from running out of natural gas, the U.S. was heading toward a massive surplus. The abundance of low-cost natural gas spurred significant demand-side investment, driving a buildout of both natural gas-fired power generation and LNG export facilities. On July 31, 2012, Cheniere Energy reached a positive final investment decision (FID) on the first two trains at Sabine Pass LNG (dark-green diamond in Figure 1 below) in Cameron Parish, LA, paving the way for construction of the first LNG export terminal in the Lower 48.The first train began exporting in 2016 and over the next four years was joined by Cove Point LNG (light-blue diamond in Figure 1), Corpus Christi LNG (dark-blue diamond), Cameron LNG (purple diamond), Freeport LNG (teal diamond) and Elba Island LNG (medium-blue diamond). The sites — all converted from pre-existing LNG import terminals — are generally considered the “first wave of U.S. LNG.” By the beginning of 2020, U.S. LNG export capacity had reached around 7.5 Bcf/d and feedgas demand, which is the amount of gas needed to produce that LNG, was averaging around 8.3 Bcf/d and climbing. Let’s take a minute to explain feedgas, which we can think of as the demand impact on the U.S. market. In addition to the gas that is liquefied, LNG terminals (with the exception of Freeport LNG) also use gas to power the systems needed to produce that LNG and for behind-the-fence power generation. That usage, combined with losses during liquefaction, means terminals need more gas than is actually turned into LNG. The exact delta varies by terminal, season and the individual specifications at a given site but in general feedgas needs can be more than 10% higher than the export volumes or capacity. Also, while most LNG feedgas is delivered by interstate pipelines, there is some that comes completely via intrastate networks. (Intrastate pipelines are not required to report flow data, so there is a small modeled component in our topline feedgas number to account for these flows. Because of this, not every source tracking overall LNG feedgas may hit this milestone at the same time.)Daily LNG feedgas demand briefly reached above 9 Bcf/d before cratering because of the impacts of Covid-19 and the global markets crash of 2020. But while feedgas was low, the capacity buildout at the existing terminals was still underway and by the end of 2020 feedgas demand had climbed back above previous records and was over 11 Bcf/d.In 2022, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG (red diamond in Figure 1) became the first fully greenfield export terminal, followed by Plaquemines LNG (light-purple diamond) in 2025. Plaquemines is still technically commissioning, although it has been producing LNG at or even above its nameplate capacity since the end of 2025. Venture Global raised the terminal’s peak capacity during the commissioning when it became clear the trains were capable of producing LNG above the nameplate level. In late 2025, the most recent expansion at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Terminal, Stage III, also began ramping online, and with these two projects, U.S. feedgas demand soared above 19 Bcf/d, as shown in Figure 2 below.Before we talk about what followed last winter and the longer-than-expected road from 19 Bcf/d to 20 Bcf/d, we first need to understand the seasonality of LNG demand. On a surface level, LNG exports have robust, year-round demand. But while it’s not as seasonal as residential or commercial demand, the seasonal swing has become more pronounced as U.S. export capacity has increased. From an engineering perspective, LNG production is actually more efficient in the winter than in the summer. Essentially, the boosted efficiency allows operators to produce more LNG during the winter and long-term contracts are structured for higher production levels in the winter, which also coincides with the peak demand period in the end markets. LNG terminals also typically perform maintenance in spring or fall, which reduces feedgas intake (and output) compared with winter levels. On top of the contractual lift, many U.S. terminals offer short-term sales, spot cargoes or additional production volumes. Some operators, like Cheniere and Venture Global, market those volumes themselves, while some offer them at a discounted rate to their existing customers. A number of different factors go into this, but in the end every U.S. terminal (except Corpus Christi, which had new capacity ramping online) saw feedgas demand peak at some point between November 2025 and April 2026 before dropping off over the spring.Let’s use Sabine Pass, the U.S.’s largest terminal, as an example. Its size makes the seasonal differences easy to see. In 2025, Sabine Pass exported just over 4 Bcf/d of LNG (dashed blue line in Figure 3 below), and feedgas demand (dashed green line) averaged just under 4.5 Bcf/d. This is consistent with full operations at the terminal. Excluding June 2025, when the terminal was down for maintenance, feedgas demand averaged 4.3 Bcf/d in spring and summer and 4.75 Bcf/d in the peak months. The delta between feedgas and volumes exported also does not stay consistent throughout the year. Not only is there seasonal variation in the losses but terminals also have LNG storage onsite that can be used to manage a terminal’s contractual obligations and short-lived feedgas disruptions from things like pipeline maintenance or extreme weather events. All else being equal, U.S. feedgas demand follows a similar pattern, but projects ramping online also increase feedgas demand. So far this year, the peak was in April, when feedgas averaged 19.31 Bcf/d for the month. The high number was driven by a combination of lingering winter peak demand and ramping feedgas from commissioning terminals. May was this year's low point because of maintenance at Cameron LNG (light-green layer in Figure 4 below) and declines elsewhere, with feedgas averaging just 17.31 Bcf/d. Freeport (dark-blue layer) and Cove Point (light-blue layer) also took major maintenance in either the summer or the fall, leaving at least one train offline for much of non-peak season. The exact floor for each terminal varied depending on maintenance schedules and other factors, but in general average feedgas demand was below 18 Bcf/d from May through August and around 18.5 Bcf/d in September (dashed red box). The limited lift from Corpus Christi Stage III’s remaining ramp up (light-blue layer), which was placed fully into service in August, was outweighed by maintenance and lower seasonal demand.There is one more terminal that has been a factor in both the ramp up in April and the long wait between 19 Bcf/d and 20 Bcf/d — Golden Pass LNG (dark-green layer at top of Figure 4). Golden Pass is the U.S.’s next export terminal but its path to startup has been anything but smooth. The project’s development started with the first wave of LNG, but stalled out again and again before finally reaching FID in 2019. The project, backed by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, will have three liquefaction trains and an export capacity of around 2.1 Bcf/d when complete. However, the project faced a number of construction delays, most notably from the bankruptcy of its former engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner, Zachary Holdings, and Train 1 did not begin commissioning until late 2025.Feedgas demand at the terminal was near zero at the start of this year and then ramped just above 300 MMcf/d by April and exported its first commissioning cargo on April 22 before stalling out. Train 1 will require between 800-850 MMcf/d at full operations. The terminal has exported commissioning cargoes since April, with one or two per month since then. We should note here that when large-scale liquefaction projects ramp online, a train typically produces one to three commissioning cargoes before the EPC contractor hands it over to the terminal operator and it enters full operations. The Golden Pass project’s developers have been tight-lipped about what's happening at the terminal and when they expect Train 1 to enter service. In the meantime, construction on Train 2 has continued and it is expected to achieve mechanical completion at the end of this year and begin ramping online early next year, with Train 3 expected to follow later next year.Between April and the end of September, feedgas to the commissioning train averaged 300 MMcf/d, with periods when feedgas briefly reached 500 MMcf/d and periods when the terminal took little to no feedgas. While feedgas demand at the terminal continues to be somewhat bumpy, it is trending higher and October has seen record intake days, reaching as high as 690 MMcf/d. The bump up in feedgas from Golden Pass is one of the primary factors behind both reaching 20 Bcf/d and the longer-than-expected road to that milestone.Beyond Golden Pass coming online, the end of maintenance season and the start of peak demand season have pushed U.S. feedgas demand to new heights. This record is unlikely to hold for very long, as we’re almost certainly heading straight into another record-breaking winter. There is more capacity available this year than last with all of Corpus Christi Stage III and some of Golden Pass operational. On top of that, Europe’s low gas storage inventories and the curtailed production in Qatar from the war in Iran will keep demand for U.S. LNG high during the peak demand period.Beyond this winter there is even more LNG coming. More trains at Golden Pass, plus three new terminals will all begin ramping online next year. Venture Global pushed forward the timeline for its next project, CP2, and now expects to begin exporting from the terminal in the second half of 2027. Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG (green-and-white diamond in Figure 1) and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG (blue-and-white diamond) are also expected to begin commissioning late next year, meaning that 2027 will be another massive year for LNG growth and we still have more record-setting winters ahead of us.
Woodside’s Louisiana LNG Buildout 32% Complete, but Steel Supply Risks Linger -The first liquefaction train at Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project is 41% complete, the company announced Wednesday. At a Glance:
- Project is 32% complete overall
- Trains 2 and 3 progressing as well
- Company working through supply chain issues
Gulf Coast Natural Gas Buyers Seek Firmer Pipeline Access as LNG Demand Grows - Growing LNG export demand is eroding pipeline flexibility across the Gulf Coast, pushing natural gas utilities and end-users to rethink how they secure supplies as competition for transportation capacity intensifies.NGI chart comparing daily natural gas prices at Henry Hub, Texas Eastern Western Louisiana and Southern Natural from March to October 2026. Southern Natural spikes above $7/MMBtu in early September, while the other hubs remain near $3. At a Glance:
- Southeast gas premiums widen year/year
- Plaquemines feedgas averages 4.07 Bcf/d in October
- Entergy seeks firm transportation coverage
Cheniere Inks Long-Term LNG Deal With QatarEnergy - QatarEnergy has agreed to purchase 4 Mt/y of LNG from Cheniere Energy through 2054, expanding its ties to US export supplies as damage to production facilities in Qatar continues to disrupt contracted cargoes. At a Glance:
- Deliveries expected to begin in 2031
- Sabine Pass expansion FID targeted for 2027
- Gulf Coast gas transportation additions planned
QatarEnergy’s US LNG Portfolio Gains Importance as France Secures Winter Supply - France has anchored winter LNG supply commitments from Qatar as below-average natural gas storage and an approaching ban on Russian imports intensify competition for US spot volumes. At a Glance:
- EU storage trails five-year average
- Russian LNG ban begins January 2027
- Qatar seeks US replacement supplies
Our Molecules to the Middle East: Qatar Buys U.S. LNG Thru 2054- Here’s a sentence we never thought we’d write: Qatar is buying American LNG. Qatar sits on top of the world’s largest natural gas field and, until this year, was one of the two or three biggest LNG exporters on the planet. Yet this week Cheniere Energy announced two long-term deals to supply state-owned QatarEnergy with 4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG through 2054. Half of it will come from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana. And Sabine Pass is a place where Marcellus/Utica gas has been showing up for years. Translation: some of the gas drilled in PA, OH, and WV will very likely end up owned by a Middle East country, which will resell it around the world. Who’d a thunk it?
The Breakout – Permitting Reform Bill Aims to Break the Logjam for Energy Infrastructure Projects | RBN Energy -Building any type of energy infrastructure can be a heavy lift, but getting permission to do it can take even longer. Years of environmental reviews, agency coordination and courtroom battles have delayed projects and driven up costs. Now, Congress is considering another permitting overhaul that could shorten reviews, curb legal uncertainty and give all kinds of energy-related projects a boost. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the major themes of the permitting reform bill being considered by Congress, how it would change the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and how it could make it easier to build or expand oil and gas pipelines.The permitting process for major energy projects is a well-known problem that we’ve written about extensively over the years. The issue has slowed a number of oil- or gas-related projects, most famously the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), while also impacting the development process for everything from long-distance transmission lines and large-scale wind and solar projects to the production of metals and critical minerals essential for many energy projects. So, if it has taken a decade or more to get final approval for some projects, with MVP even requiring an act of Congress, it shouldn’t be a great surprise that reforms to the permitting process itself would be slow moving too.Changes to the permitting process came with 2023’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which suspended the federal debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, but also addressed immediate priorities in federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects and expedited MVP’s completion. Most importantly for our discussion today, it reformed the way NEPA operates, streamlining the review process through clearer assessment thresholds, designated lead agencies, applicant-prepared documents, deadlines, page limits, consolidated analyses and broader categorical exclusions, while preserving agency oversight and public comment procedures. (Some changes were also included in 2025’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.) Helpful as those changes may be, they were only the first steps toward more significant reforms. As we wrote in Rescue Me, the FRA’s passage appeared at the time as if it might clear a path for additional legislation. That has yet to happen, but that could be changing soon. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (BAAJA) was introduced in the Senate in September and a procedural vote is expected sometime after the midterm elections on November 3. It appears to have strong bipartisan support in the Senate, although passage in the narrowly divided House — required for the bill to move forward — seems less certain. The White House has said it supports the bill, although its treatment of wind and solar projects has been a major point of contention with Democrats in Congress. In a move that could complicate the bill’s passage, the Trump administration asked a federal court on October 9 to reassess the 2023 approval of the 704-MW Revolution Wind Project, which is expected to begin full commercial operation later this year. The project, located off the Rhode Island coast, began sending power to the grid in March and the last of its 65 turbines was installed in September.The BAAJA includes a number of significant changes related to NEPA (see Figure 1 below), including making more projects exempt from it, reducing the amount of duplicative analysis, doing more coordinated reviews, expressly codifying that NEPA is defined as a procedural process without mandating specific environmental outcomes, and broadening the use of categorical exclusions. A categorical exclusion is a class of actions that a federal agency has determined do not have a significant effect on the human environment and do not normally require an Environmental Assessment (EA) or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Figure 1. Proposed NEPA Changes Under Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. In addition to the NEPA reforms, the bill includes two other significant changes to the permitting process:
- Firmer review and decision deadlines. The proposal retains the general one-year deadline for an EA and the two-year deadline for an EIS that were part of the FRA, while adding deadlines for subsequent decisions. The one- and two-year review limits already exist in current law; the additional scheduling requirements are a key change.
- Tighter limits on lawsuits and remedies. NEPA challenges generally would have to be filed within 150 days, go directly to federal appeals courts, and come from parties that raised the relevant issue during that process. For NEPA violations, courts generally would send the authorization back for correction without invalidating it or issuing an injunction, with corrections due within 180 days.
The proposed permitting overhaul would make many other changes as well. Clean Water Act revisions would narrow state certification reviews, establish firmer deadlines, lengthen certain permit terms and limit the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) veto window. Endangered Species Act changes would accelerate consultations, coordinate them with NEPA and expand state participation. Project-certainty provisions would restrict permit reversals and provide remedies for qualifying delays or discriminatory treatment. On the power side, the bill would expand the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) transmission siting authority, strengthen regional planning and address cost allocation, generator interconnection and growing data center loads. Other provisions target drilling on nonfederal land, Tribal rights-of-way, renewables, mining, geothermal, hydropower, and offshore transmission. Historic-preservation reviews would get clearer timelines and closer NEPA coordination.For pipeline developers, the proposed NEPA changes could take some of the uncertainty out of getting projects from the drawing board into service. The biggest winners would likely be expansions of existing interstate natural gas systems, although the benefits would depend on where a project is built, which federal approvals it needs and whether it follows an existing corridor. When adding capacity to gas pipelines already in the ground, qualifying compressor additions, replacements, upgrades and pipeline looping (installing a parallel segment) would be exempt from NEPA review if they stay within the pipeline’s defined existing corridor or previously reviewed footprint, and can extend to adjacent areas for some activities. That could give developers a reason to expand an existing system instead of pursuing a new route.New pipelines requiring NEPA review could also benefit. Clearer deadlines, better coordination among agencies and greater use of existing environmental studies could make permitting schedules more predictable. A quicker deadline would require a decision, however, without assuring developers of a favorable one. Then there’s the litigation risk. A 150-day filing window and direct appeals-court review would shorten the period for NEPA challenges. Courts would generally leave authorizations in place while agencies fix review deficiencies, potentially reducing construction interruptions like those that plagued MVP.For oil pipelines, the benefits would be more project-specific. FERC approves interstate natural gas pipeline construction but does not oversee oil pipeline construction. Oil projects needing federal permits or land approvals could benefit from the reforms; those relying primarily on state approvals would see less direct impact.It’s important to note that permitting reform could help pipeline developers move projects along, but there would still be plenty of hurdles between a proposed line and its first deliveries. Start with the commercial side: Developers would still need customers willing to sign transportation contracts, lenders willing to provide financing and enough expected throughput to make the economics work. Faster environmental reviews alone won’t put those pieces together. The certificate policy under the Natural Gas Act of 1938 and FERC’s 1999 Statement of Policy still require a showing of “public convenience and necessity,’” showing the project is needed. Then there’s the route itself. Easement negotiations, landowner compensation and eminent-domain disputes would remain potential sticking points, along with applicable state and local approvals. The bill would change state water-quality certification procedures, but it would not roll every permit into a single federal green light. Environmental compliance would remain too, including Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act requirements expressly preserved by the existing-gas-corridor exemption.That exemption also has boundaries. Qualifying activities such as capacity additions, optimizations and upgrades within existing corridors or previously reviewed footprints would no longer count as a major action triggering a NEPA review, while pipelines following entirely new routes would still face applicable reviews. And although the bill would narrow the window for NEPA challenges, it would not eliminate every lawsuit, resolve community opposition or guarantee available crews and equipment. In short, a faster permitting decision could still be a “no.”For pipeline developers, the proposed reforms could mean fewer permitting detours, more predictable schedules and less risk that courtroom setbacks will derail construction. Expanding existing interstate gas systems could become especially attractive. Still, permitting is only part of building a project. Customers, financing, land rights and construction economics remain essential. Congress could help clear the path, but developers would still have plenty of ground left to cover.
FERC Blanket Rule Could Let LNG Plants Add a Train in 90 Days -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Last Thursday, in a unanimous 5-0 vote, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) proposed something it has twice before refused to do: create a “blanket” authorization program for LNG plants. That’s regulatory-speak for letting LNG export terminals (and the smaller LNG “peak shaver” storage plants up here in the Northeast) make upgrades, swap out equipment, boost capacity, and even build new liquefaction trains, tanks, and marine berths without begging FERC for a separate, case-by-case order each time. Interstate pipelines have had a blanket program like this since 1982. LNG never did. FERC Chairman Laura Swett called it “historic,” and for once the word fits. The proposal is a notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR), not a final rule, and the usual suspects are already lining up against it, including nine blue-state attorneys general. But if it goes through, more gas gets out the door faster, and that’s good news for the Marcellus/Utica.
EIA Reports 77 Bcf Weekly Build in Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage - The Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet as of Friday, October 16, 2026, according to the agency's weekly storage report released October 22. The EIA data showed a net increase of 77 Bcf from the prior week, when stocks totaled 3,567 Bcf. Stocks remained below year-ago levels, running 152 Bcf under the 3,796 Bcf recorded on October 16, 2025, a decline of 4.0 percent. Inventories held 35 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,609 Bcf, a 1.0 percent premium, and the agency noted that total working gas is within the five-year historical range spanning 2021 through 2025. Regional Breakdown The East region posted 900 Bcf, up 16 Bcf on the week, 0.3 percent above the year-ago level of 897 Bcf and 2.7 percent above the five-year average of 876 Bcf. The Midwest rose 28 Bcf to 1,065 Bcf, 0.9 percent above the prior-year 1,056 Bcf and 2.0 percent above the five-year average of 1,044 Bcf. The Mountain region added 2 Bcf to reach 257 Bcf, which was 8.9 percent below the year-ago 282 Bcf and 4.5 percent above the five-year average of 246 Bcf. The Pacific region increased 3 Bcf to 297 Bcf, 4.2 percent below the prior-year 310 Bcf and 6.5 percent above the five-year average of 279 Bcf. The South Central region gained 28 Bcf to 1,125 Bcf, 10.0 percent below the year-ago 1,250 Bcf and 3.4 percent below the five-year average of 1,165 Bcf. Within that region, salt storage rose 15 Bcf to 251 Bcf, down 21.1 percent from 318 Bcf a year earlier and 14.9 percent below the five-year average of 295 Bcf. Nonsalt storage added 14 Bcf to 875 Bcf, 6.2 percent below the prior-year 933 Bcf and 0.5 percent above the five-year average of 871 Bcf.
Wall Street Is Betting Big Against Natural Gas as a Mild Winter Looms - 24/7 Wall St. As of October 20, 2026, speculators held 505,747 short contracts in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas against 264,475 longs. That left a net short of 241,272, the largest since February 11, 2020, in Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday, October 23. Gas fell sharply on warm forecasts. United States Natural Gas Fund dropped 3.13% to $9.58. EQT rose 1.76%, and Expand Energy gained 0.29%. If you own any of these, that split matters. When a short trade gets this crowded, it can reverse quickly, and a futures fund is an expensive place to wait for that. A net short means traders have sold more futures than they bought, so they profit when prices fall. The net short fell from 233,578 a week earlier, though it remains below the all-time high of 262,061 set June 9, 2015. Hedge funds cut longs by 24,641 and added 6,287 shorts. Their net short rose to 157,409 from 126,481, the largest since February 20, 2024. Our analysis puts managed-money shorts across seven benchmark contracts at 569,954, the second-highest level since August 2013. Short sellers must buy contracts back to close out, and if a cold snap forces many to buy back at once, their buying can push prices up sharply. November gas settled at $3.116 on October 16, then at $2.790 on October 21 and $2.796 on October 22. It was trading near $2.63 late Friday. That works out to a weekly drop of roughly 15% to 16%, about 22% over a month and about 34% over a year. December, the next contract to become the front month, slipped from $3.386 to about $3.05. The government’s winter outlook expects a very strong El Niño to bring warmer weather across the northern U.S., the Midwest and much of the East. Ken Graham, who runs the National Weather Service, said: “a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream.” Short-range maps put the odds of above-normal warmth from October 29 to November 2 at 70% to 80% across the Southeast. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group said prices are “going up and down with the weather right now.” The market ignored a bullish storage report. Inventories rose by 77 Bcf, below the 79 Bcf analysts expected, the 86 Bcf added a year earlier, and the five-year average of 87 Bcf. Storage now stands only 1.0% above the five-year average and 4.0% below last year. Output has eased to about 111.4 Bcf/d from a record 113.3 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, gas flowing to export terminals rose to about 18.2 Bcf/d. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz keep European prices high, which keeps demand for U.S. shipments strong. Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis still sees “not much of a reason here for us to be very bullish.” In the near term, the weather will likely matter more than these supply numbers.
Frac Spread Shifts Into High Gear in October | RBN Energy - The frac spread, which compares the value of a typical Mont Belvieu NGL barrel with Henry Hub natural gas on an MMBtu basis, reached $7.80/MMBtu on October 19, up 36% from $5.74/MMBtu a month earlier. NGL prices did the heavy lifting, rising 26% over the past month, while natural gas gained just 5%. Through October 19, the frac spread is averaging $6.95/MMBtu, more than double the $3.16/MMBtu averaged in October 2025.Butanes have led the way so far in October, with normal butane (dark blue bars) rising to $1.41/MMBtu from $1.03/MMBtu in September and isobutane (light blue bars) rising to $0.93/MMBtu from $0.67/MMBtu, together accounting for nearly half of the frac spread’s increase from September. Propane (purple bars) remains the largest piece of the spread at $2.32/MMBtu. WTI is averaging $94/bbl so far in October, up from $60/bbl a year ago, while Henry Hub natural gas is averaging $3.14/MMBtu, below its October 2025 average of $3.31/MMBtu. If those conditions hold, NGLs should keep the spread wide.
Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough – Are We Building Enough Gas Pipeline Capacity East Out of Katy? | RBN Energy -The volumes of Permian natural gas flowing into the Katy area west of Houston will be increasing sharply over the next few years, as will gas demand from new and expanding LNG export terminals near the Texas/Louisiana border. Three new pipelines with a combined capacity of 8 Bcf/d — Blackfin, Trident and Mustang Express — are being developed to move gas from Katy to the state line, but will that be enough? In today’s blog, we’ll use RBN’s Arrow Model to assess Enbridge’s recently unveiled proposal to add up to 2 Bcf/d of incremental capacity from Katy to the Gillis Hub in southwestern Louisiana.We have blogged extensively over the past few years about three critically important and intertwined topics: fast-rising production of associated gas in the Permian, the massive buildout of new LNG export capacity along the Gulf Coast, and the frenetic development of gas pipeline capacity from Permian wells to water. Much of the discussion has focused on takeaway pipelines out of West Texas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas and the Katy Hub — most recently, we looked at the record-busting plan by a WhiteWater Midstream-led consortium to build the 4.5-Bcf/d Solitude Pipeline, which will consist of twin 48-inch-diameter pipes from the Waha Hub to the Katy area. But getting Permian gas to inland hubs like Katy and Agua Dulce — or to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, like Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline — addresses only part of the challenge. The other part is, how do you get gas from there to where it’s demanded most, namely to LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast between Port Arthur, TX, and Cameron Parish in the southwestern corner of Louisiana. Within that 40-mile stretch, about 59 MMtpa (~6.7 Bcf/d) of LNG export capacity is in operation and another 86 MMtpa (~9.4 Bcf/d) has reached a final investment decision (FID) and is either under construction or will be soon.Sure, a sizable portion of that gas demand from existing and planned LNG export terminals will be met by the Haynesville Shale in northwestern Louisiana and northeastern Texas, but while Haynesville gas is produced at a relatively high cost, gas from the Permian is produced as a no-cost byproduct of crude oil-focused drilling and needs to find a home.Midstream developers have been working hard the past couple of years to advance pipeline projects to transport more gas from the Katy area to Port Arthur and beyond. For example:
- A joint venture of WhiteWater Midstream and LNG exporter Venture Global is building the 3.5-Bcf/d Blackfin Pipeline (dashed purple line in Figure 1 below) from Colorado County, TX, (just west of Katy) to Jasper County, TX, near the Texas/Louisiana line. Blackfin is slated to start up in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. It will connect in Jasper County with CP Express (dashed orange line), a 2.2-Bcf/d interstate line being built to supply feedgas to the CP2 LNG facility just across the border in Cameron Parish.
- Kinder Morgan is constructing the 2-Bcf/d Trident Pipeline (dashed dark-red line) from Katy to the Port Arthur area; it expects to finish Phase 1 (1.5 Bcf/d) in Q1 2027 and a 500-MMcf/d expansion (Phase 2) in Q4 2028.
- ARM Energy and PIMCO are jointly developing the 2.5-Bcf/d Mustang Express pipeline (dashed blue line), which by late 2029 or early 2030 will move gas from just west of Katy to the Port Arthur area.
These three new pipelines will help supply the existing and planned LNG export terminals (yellow and striped-white diamonds, respectively), but questions remain about whether their combined capacity will be sufficient as the buildout of new LNG export projects continues. In response, Enbridge announced on October 13 that its Texas Eastern Transmission pipeline system (aka TETCO or Texas Eastern) has launched a non-binding open season for what it calls the Katy-to-Gillis Expansion project, which Enbridge said could add as much as 2 Bcf/d of incremental capacity between Katy and the growing Louisiana demand markets.In a statement, Enbridge said the prospective Katy-to-Gillis project would be developed in collaboration with ARM Energy’s Mustang Express and “would create a seamless transportation path between Katy and Gillis by combining transportation services on the Mustang Express and (TETCO) systems.” Caitlin Tessin, Enbridge’s vice president for commercial gas transmission, called the prospective project “the missing puzzle piece connecting gas molecules arriving at Katy with key demand markets in Gillis,” a hub vital to supplying gas to Sabine Pass-area LNG export terminals.In its announcement, Enbridge said: “Final capacity, receipt and delivery points, facility design and service structures will be informed by market interest received during the open season,” which runs to October 30. “Subject to securing sufficient commercial support and obtaining required approvals, the project is targeting an early 2031 in-service date.”As shown by the red arrows in the map Enbridge provided with its open-season announcement (Figure 2 below), the project could add as much as 2 Bcf/d of eastbound capacity from Katy to Vidor, TX, one of two termini of Mustang Express (dashed purple line; the other leg runs to Port Arthur LNG) as well as more capacity — maybe bidirectional — along the Texas Eastern corridor between Vidor and the Gillis Hub in southwestern Louisiana.We should note here that Enbridge’s TETCO system runs along much of this same corridor, and that the company envisions expansions to parts of that run of pipe, most likely through a combination of compression and the looping of existing pipe between Vidor and Gillis.So, what does RBN’s Arrow Model tell us about existing and expected pipeline flows in the area? As we said in All Shook Up, the Arrow Model — available to subscribers to our monthly Arrow Model Report — is a comprehensive analytical tool that explains shifting natural gas flows and market dynamics in Texas and Louisiana. More specifically, the model carves the Texas/Louisiana region into pipeline “corridors” that can be used to assess changes in the region’s inflows, outflows and flows within each state via groups of pipes that serve similar markets from comparable supply sources.As shown in Figure 3 below, these pipeline corridors (green arrows) are aggregations of dozens of pipelines connecting 15 market hubs (black dots), some within the two states and others outside the region. There also are six more corridors that track export volumes from LNG terminals, through which gas exits Texas and Louisiana in liquefied form on LNG carriers (dark-blue and light-blue arrows, respectively). The red arrows show gas exports to Mexico.The attributes of each arrow include capacities, historical flows, projected flows, constraints and other factors. The net flows for each arrow move in the direction indicated by the arrow, but they can (and do) flip around over time when modeled market conditions dictate.Our analysis today focuses on Corridor V (“V” in orange circle in Figure 3) — that is, the group of existing and planned pipelines in the Greater Houston area between Katy and the Texas/Louisiana border. We compared the expected lay of the land with and without Enbridge’s prospective addition of 2 Bcf/d of capacity between Katy and southwestern Louisiana.Currently, this is one of the more congested corridors in the two-state region, and most, if not all, of the capacity additions from Blackfin/CP Express, Trident and Mustang Express will be highly utilized as new LNG export capacity comes online. The orange line in Figure 4 below shows the expected increase in west-to-east flows along Corridor V as this new LNG — and pipeline — capacity comes online; the green line, in turn, shows the slightly higher flows along the corridor if Enbridge were to add up to 2 Bcf/d there starting in 2031. With the new capacity, flows would average about 400 MMcf/d higher during the 2031-37 period; the impact is most pronounced in 2034, when flows are about 700 MMcf/d higher than without the expansion.Put simply, with Enbridge’s proposed expansion, a relatively congested corridor between Katy and the state line would become much less so and Houston Ship Channel (HSC) gas prices would strengthen relative to Henry Hub by the mid-2030s.We should note that even with the Enbridge expansion, congestion along Corridor V could return if developers decide to add still more LNG export capacity between Port Arthur and Cameron Parish than has already reached FID. RBN’s LNG Voyager report lists at least one project in the area — a 6.7-MMtpa (900 MMcf/d) expansion at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG — as being very possible, and a few others as having at least a chance to move forward too.
Trump releases heating oil to the Northeast to reduce surging prices - The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it will release up to one-third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in a bid to lower the cost of the fuel as winter looms — and as Maine’s bitter Senate race hangs in the balance. The announcement comes as Republican Sen. Susan Collins makes a case to Maine voters amid a tight reelection contest that her years of experience in Congress show she can deliver for them. Democratic challenger Troy Jackson said she should have done more to end the U.S. war with Iran that led to the price surge. The race is one of a handful across the country that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate next year. About 3% of U.S. households rely on heating oil, mostly concentrated in the Northeast, especially in Maine, where Collins and independent Sen. Angus King have both been pushing for a release from the reserve. The average cost of a gallon of heating oil in the United States is $6.14, according to the most recent Energy Information Administration data. That’s more than double the price a year ago, which was $2.60. In New England, the average price is $6.08. “I have repeatedly urged the administration to use every tool to increase supply and lower energy prices,” Collins said in a statement from the Senate Appropriations Committee, which she chairs. “The Department anticipates this release will put downward pressure on home heating oil costs and make a real difference for Maine homeowners as they prepare for winter.” Jackson said she could have voted with Democrats in the Senate to force President Donald Trump to end the war he launched against Iran in February that has since spread through the Middle East, causing oil and fuel prices to increase. “Two weeks before Election Day, she wants Mainers to believe she’s coming to the rescue,” Jackson said in a statement Wednesday. “Susan Collins is like an arsonist who sets the house on fire and then wants credit for bringing you a cup of water.” In the announcement today, the Department of Energy said it has released a Request for Proposal for an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels of fuel oil from the reserve. Under the terms of the exchange, borrowing companies must return the same volume of fuel oil plus a premium, ensuring that the reserve is refilled ahead of next year’s heating season. “The Trump Administration is committed to doing everything in our power to lower energy costs for the American people,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement. Wright stressed that the release was a “temporary measure” to alleviate a supply disruption and said that Democratic leaders in the Northeast should join the push for a new natural gas pipeline that would help the region shift away from expensive heating oil.
Trump's diesel price relief efforts grow costlier as election nears (Reuters) - With the November midterm elections fast approaching, President Donald Trump is throwing an array of costly and politically fraught solutions at one stubborn problem: the price of diesel. His administration has offered billions of dollars to farmers, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian fuel and pressured European allies to release emergency stocks. Yet diesel prices rose again last week, leaving Trump spending political and financial capital without delivering the relief his party wants as voters go to the polls. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress, and high costs are a major concern for voters. Nearly 80% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll. US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28, reversing two weeks of declines and remaining near record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration. Diesel in the last two months has become a central issue not only in the midterms but as a catalyst driving up already-elevated US inflation. The fuel is critical for farmers, construction companies, freight operators and more, and government data last week showed its rise was partly behind hefty increases in delivery costs, early-stage food production costs and even toy prices. The political pressure is particularly acute in traditionally Republican Farm Belt states like Iowa and Kansas, where rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have fueled discontent among some of Trump's core supporters. Trump has promoted his diesel measures at campaign rallies across the region. He signed an executive order onstage in Nebraska allowing red-dyed diesel to be used in highway vehicles and announced $8 billion in new farm aid during a rally in Kansas on Monday. The measures illustrate the trade-offs Trump is accepting in pursuit of near-term relief. The new aid adds fresh strain on federal spending, while the Russian fuel move risks helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. Pressure on European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel exports, has created diplomatic friction. 00:00 00:00 “The president tends to discount long-term losses over short-term gain, and I am skeptical if there is any short gain to be had here,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania. The White House attributed high diesel prices to “pre-existing issues,” including years of refinery closures and damage from Russia's war with Ukraine.
How Much Additional Diesel Could Reach the Market? - Diesel has become the focus of an unusually coordinated diplomatic effort. That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts, including J.P. Morgan’s Head of Global Commodities Strategy Natasha Kaneva, said in a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone recently. In the report, these analysts highlighted that, over the past couple of weeks, the G7 pledged to accelerate releases from emergency inventories, Washington reached an agreement with Moscow to facilitate Russian diesel exports, and U.S. President Donald Trump urged China to increase refined product supplies. “Together, these measures raise an obvious question: how much additional diesel could reach the market, and what would that mean for prices?” the analysts asked in the report. “The answer depends less on the size of the announcement than on the government’s willingness to deliver the promised barrels and, crucially, how much of this supply would be genuinely incremental,” they added. A G7 leaders’ statement published on the websites of the European Union and the President of France on October 2 revealed that the leaders of the G7 had convened a virtual meeting “to address the deepening challenges to our energy security”. “The G7 requests the IEA to monitor the immediate and full implementation of the March 2026 commitments,” that statement noted. “In this regard, taking into account commitments that have already been fulfilled, we will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners,” it added. In a statement sent to Rigzone on October 7 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol revealed that, in a meeting that week, IEA member governments “expressed support for accelerating the oil stock releases announced in the Collective Action of March 2026, with a view to completing them as soon as possible”. A statement posted on the IEA’s website on March 11 announced that the 32 member countries of the organization unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market “to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East”. In a statement posted on his Truth Social page on October 9, Trump said, “I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter”. “Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel,” he added. In a statement posted on the President of Russia’s website on October 9, which was translated from Russian, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “during a telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on October 9 … Russia confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets”. A fact sheet posted on the White House website on September 25 highlighted that President Trump urged China’s President Xi “to increase production of refined petroleum products to stabilize global supply”. The J.P. Morgan analysts noted in their report that the European stock release could have the largest immediate effect, “particularly if a meaningful share constitutes diesel and deliveries are concentrated in the first 20 days”. “That is, of course, if Europe actually releases the barrels,” the analysts said. “So far, European governments have been reluctant to draw down emergency inventories, even as European oil stocks recovered to their spring levels by August,” they added. The analysts went on to state that the Russian agreement “is particularly interesting”. “Russia has continued to ship around 140,000 barrels per day of diesel by sea per month despite its export restrictions,” the analysts highlighted. “This raises the possibility that the agreement changes the legal status and destinations of Russian exports more than their overall volume,” they said. “In other words, the agreement could prove considerably more significant politically than in terms of additional barrels reaching the market,” they continued. The analysts also pointed out in the report that China “potentially has greater capacity to influence global diesel supplies than its current export quotas imply”. “Its refining system can respond to policy decisions, but the October‘s approval of 3.7 million tons of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel combined is below September’s expected volume,” they said. “A meaningful increase in supply would require higher diesel-specific export allocations and potentially higher refinery runs,” they noted. The J.P. Morgan analysts went on to reveal in the report that, if all commitments are fully delivered, these measures could cover up to 80 percent of the diesel deficit from November through December, “materially easing market tightness”. “For now, the announcements are already helping to keep market sentiment in check,” the analyst said. “In Europe, the diesel-crude spreads have fallen 19 percent from a month ago, although they remain roughly 200 percent above pre-conflict levels,” they added. “If inventory releases and additional exports fail to materialize, however, the persistent supply shortfall, compounded by disrupted refining logistics and record freight rates, will likely keep pressure on product markets,” they warned.
Russia Launches First Diesel Tanker to U.S. as Drone-Hit Refineries Cast Doubt on Deal - The first 40,000-metric-ton Russian diesel shipment is underway under the Trump-Putin fuel pact, but drone-damaged refineries, bipartisan congressional opposition, and Ukraine's resumed refinery strikes raise grave doubts about the deal's staying power before the November 3 midterms. Briefing:
- Russia's Deputy PM Alexander Novak confirmed Wednesday that the first tanker — carrying 40,000 metric tons of diesel — departed Thursday under the Trump-Putin fuel supply agreement announced October 9, with the destination port still undisclosed.
- U.S. diesel crossed $6 a gallon for the first time ever on September 11 and stood at $6.28 as of October 19, making fuel costs a defining political liability with the November 3 midterm elections now less than two weeks away.
- Ukraine's resumed drone campaign against Russian refineries — which the IEA calculates were struck once every three days through August — and bipartisan congressional opposition cast serious doubt on Russia's ability to deliver diesel at the volumes promised.
A tanker loaded with 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel cleared port Thursday as the opening delivery of a Trump-Putin fuel pact that has already fractured congressional alliances, enraged Kyiv, triggered and then shattered a short-lived energy ceasefire, and pulled global diesel prices down by 5 to 6 percent — before the first barrel reaches U.S. shores.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Wednesday that the vessel would depart carrying 40,000 metric tons — roughly 300,000 barrels — of fuel, without identifying the departure port, the tanker's name, or the American terminal scheduled to receive the cargo. Putin, who that same afternoon held talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, described Russia as readying multiple tanker shipments and said Moscow could deliver fuel, in Novak's words, "to the extent of our capabilities" — a commitment that carries significant supply-side caveats given the state of the country's refining infrastructure. The supply contract governing the arrangement, Novak separately cautioned, was still being finalized, leaving the volume and timing of future deliveries undefined.President Trump announced the arrangement via Truth Social on October 9 following a phone call with Putin, declaring that Russia would immediately provide at least 300,000 metric tons of diesel to American and global markets — roughly 2.25 million barrels — with 500,000 additional tons pledged for November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter. Trump's post also projected 3 million metric tons in a further round, while Russian officials have said the country could eventually export up to 3.5 million metric tons per month.That same day, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 135, a temporary authorization for Russian diesel transactions running through April 7, 2027 — a legal mechanism that bypasses the sanctions framework Congress assembled after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia, in turn, formally lifted its diesel export ban beginning October 10 — a restriction Moscow had imposed to contain domestic fuel shortages that months of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries had helped deepen. During the St. Petersburg talks, Witkoff personally thanked Putin for rolling back the export limits; Putin credited the announcement with a 5 to 6 percent drop in global diesel prices.The arrangement carries a structural contradiction: the refining capacity Russia is promising to tap has been severely degraded by the same war that created the energy crisis being sold as the deal's justification.Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported earlier this month that drone attacks had cut production at at least half of Russia's most productive diesel refineries, forcing across-the-board output cuts at plants that together supply a substantial share of the country's fuel.The International Energy Agency has quantified the pace of damage: Russian oil facilities were struck by Ukrainian drones once every three days on average through the first eight months of 2026. The IEA subsequently lowered its Russian refinery throughput forecast to approximately 4 million barrels per day — against nameplate capacity of 6.5 million barrels per day — citing compounding structural damage, sanctions-driven equipment shortfalls, and growing reliability risks across the network. The 250,000-barrel-per-day Moscow refinery, heavily struck in June, is expected to remain offline until at least early 2027.
U.S. Midwest Refiners Need Expanded Infrastructure to Move Their Surplus Capacity to Markets - U.S. Midwest refiners have large refineries that produce more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel than the regional market can use, but they have limited pipeline and waterborne access to move surplus barrels to coastal markets. The Midwest has over 4.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity—24% of the U.S. total — and produces more gasoline and diesel than local populations consume. That contrasts with the East and West Coasts, where refining capacity has declined due to retirements, conversions, and closures. To fill the deficit, Midwest refiners want to replicate U.S. Gulf Coast refiners’ infrastructure and branch into East and West Coast markets. Expanding Buckeye Partners’ Laurel Pipeline system to the Atlantic Coast and building the proposed Western Gateway pipeline connecting Illinois to Los Angeles could open East and West Coast markets to them, providing needed petroleum supply and easing gasoline and diesel prices in coastal markets.Since 2000, the Midwest has gained 17% in overall refining capacity, due mainly to the availability of heavy crude oil from Western Canada. The Midwest now has more than 4.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity, including 1.5 million barrels per day in the four states closest to the East Coast (Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio). Since 2000, refining capacity in the Northeast (primarily at 5 refineries in Delaware, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania) has fallen by half, to about 900 thousand barrels per day due to lack of pipeline access to U.S. shale oil and to other events, such as a fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery in Philadelphia, which led to its shutdown.After FERC approved regulatory and tariff filings on September 10, Buckeye Partners activated bi-directional refined product service on its Laurel Pipeline, which can move Midwest fuel from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, adding up to 80,000 barrels per day of incremental capacity. The approval comes as Middle East supply disruptions have reduced gasoline exports from Europe and Eastern Canada to the U.S. East Coast. The Northeast also receives petroleum product supply from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries via the Colonial Pipeline. Citgo was the first refiner to publicly confirm on October 1 that it had begun shipping gasoline east from its Lemont, Illinois, refinery via the expanded Buckeye system.The Western Gateway pipeline is an estimated $5 billion project backed by Kinder Morgan, Phillips 66, and HF Sinclair to connect U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast supplies to Arizona and California. California has been closing or converting refineries to biofuels, which has pushed gasoline and diesel prices $1.50 to $2.00 per gallon above the national average. The state has lost more than 30% of its refining capacity in five years. Recent refinery closures include Phillips 66’s Wilmington refinery in October 2025 and Valero’s Benicia plant in April 2026. The state increasingly relies on waterborne imports to fill the gap, importing 20% of its gasoline from Asian refiners and adding to higher costs. Middle East disruptions have recently reduced Asian supply, and West Coast gasoline inventories have remained below year-ago levels through the summer of 2026.Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, and HF Sinclair made a final investment decision on August 11 to begin development of the 1,300-mile Western Gateway pipeline system, with a design capacity of 230,000 barrels per day. It is expected to be completed in 2029, subject to obtaining permits and regulatory approvals. Phillips 66 will construct and operate a new pipeline of about 900 miles from its Borger, Texas, refinery to Phoenix, Arizona, while its Gold Pipeline, after being reversed, will connect to the Explorer Pipeline and allow Midwest refined products to flow toward Borger. Kinder Morgan will reverse its existing SFPP West Line, running from Colton, California, to Phoenix, to move product east-to-west into California.Beyond helping California, the Western Gateway Pipeline will fill a gap in Arizona, as the state has no oil refineries of its own and much of its gasoline comes from California. The Western Gateway pipeline is expected to deliver up to 200,000 barrels of gas a day to Arizona, nearly double the amount Phoenix gets from an existing pipeline. Kinder Morgan has been operating in the state and across the West Coast for decades and owns several pipelines in Arizona.The Midwest has a firm supply of crude oil from western Canada and excess refinery capacity but lacks the infrastructure to move gasoline and diesel to East and West Coast markets, where refining capacity has declined due to retirements, conversions, and closures. To address the infrastructure gap, Buckeye Partners is expanding its Laurel Pipeline system to the East Coast, and the proposed Western Gateway pipeline will connect Illinois to Los Angeles, providing needed petroleum supply and easing gasoline and diesel prices in coastal markets. Buckeye Partners activated bi-directional refined product service on its Laurel Pipeline, moving Midwest fuel from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York. The Western Gateway pipeline creates a new fuel supply corridor originating from St. Louis, Missouri, and expanded Gulf Coast receipt points to the West Coast. Once it obtains permits and regulatory approvals, construction will begin, with an expected completion date of 2029. These steps should improve the circulation of refined products in the United States and benefit consumers.
Deep-Sea Species Struggle to Recover After Deepwater Horizon Spill - -Across hundreds of miles of the northern Gulf of Mexico, a deep-water ecosystem collapsed after the massive 2011 Deepwater Horizon oil and gas spill, and recovery is uncertain, new research concludes.The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that animal populations, including octopus, krill, squid and shrimp declined by 60 to 85 percent in the three-and-a-half years after the spill, with few signs of recovery since. Krill and lanternfish, both foundational species in the Gulf’s food web, were among the hardest hit. The findings also suggest that the die-off is causing genetic bottlenecks that could further hinder ecosystem recovery.The researchers identified it as the “fastest and most severe faunal decline reported for Earth’s largest ecosystem type” ever documented. The widespread die-off of marine organisms may also reduce the ocean’s ability to transport carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the deep sea. After ruling out other factors, such as water temperature and oxygen levels, the researchers identified the Deepwater Horizon blowout as “the most parsimonious explanation” for the ecosystem’s collapse. Comprehensive natural resource damage assessments and restoration efforts involving federal, state and tribal trustees are still underway. In 2016, BP agreed to a $20.8 billion settlement, including up to $8.8 billion for environmental restoration.Remote ocean depths and habitats miles below the surface may seem buffered from the impacts of human activity, the authors wrote, but their findings suggest an industrial disaster pushed part of it into a diminished state with “limited resilience to facilitate recovery.” They said their findings also show that proposed industrial deep-sea mining could damage the ecosystem before baseline conditions are assessed.A Transoceanic drilling rig, operating for BP about 50 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta, exploded on April 20, 2010. The explosion and fire killed 11 people and triggered the largest accidental marine oil spill in history. Oil and gas spewed uncontrollably from the broken well nearly a mile deep for 87 days, ejecting 4.9 million barrels of oil at a rate of about 400 tanker trucks per day, enough to fill up 1.2 million cars. The spill also released about 7.7 billion cubic feet of fossil gas into the deep sea at a rate of 88 million cubic feet per day, enough to supply about 820,000 U.S. homes. State and federal agencies, including the EPA, also authorized BP to apply 1.84 million gallons of chemical dispersants to try to reduce the impacts.Some of the oil and gas dissipated and was transported out of the deep Gulf of Mexico region. Some coated barrier islands and devastated coastal wetlands and shellfish habitat and some settled onto the ocean floor, where currents can stir it back into the water. But enough hydrocarbon and chemical-dispersant remnants stayed suspended long enough to do almost immeasurable harm.A series of studies since the spill have shown a wide range of toxic effects on marine organisms, from impaired development and reproduction to increased mortality and lasting health problems in dolphins and whales. The new paper suggests that lingering pollutants may interfere with some species’ ability to find mates in the dark by disrupting their highly developed sense of smell.
Crazy – Attacks, Altered Crude Flows, Unbalanced Fleets Push Tanker Freight Rates to Record Levels | RBN Energy - Freight rates are sky-high right now. Japanese oil major Cosmo Oil chartered a 2020-built Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on October 8 to ship 2 MMbbl of crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast for $81 million, double September's market rate and about 5X a year ago. Higher rates show that freight, not the price of crude, has become the swing cost for moving Atlantic Basin barrels to the far east. In today's RBN blog, we look at the unique combination of factors, including new routes for Middle Eastern crude and increased purchases by China, that are helping drive freight rates to record highs. Here at RBN, we regularly track crude oil tanker voyages and freight rates, but this topic has rarely (if ever) made it into our blogosphere. That said, things have changed significantly this year— freight rates have been on a wild ride. To help make sense of it all, we turned to our friends at McQuilling Services, a U.S.-based shipping consultancy that tracks and forecasts the tanker market. The big picture: The jump in tanker rates, especially for VLCCs, isn't due to any single disruption. Instead, it's driven by a combination of stronger demand for long-haul crude shipments and a sharp drop in available vessels, with many contributing factors that have sent rates through the roof — and relief is not expected anytime soon. This is our first in a new series looking at freight rates.Before getting too far into the details, it’s worth explaining how tanker freight rates are measured. Shipping costs can be expressed in dollars per voyage or in Worldscale (WS) points, an industry-standard system that measures freight rates relative to a benchmark for a specific route. Worldscale 100 (WS100) represents the published benchmark freight rate for a route, while quotes above or below 100, referred to as “spot rates,” indicate a premium or discount to that benchmark.For example, if the published Worldscale benchmark rate is $20 per metric ton (MT):
- WS100 = $20/MT (100% of benchmark)
- WS150 = $30/MT (150% of benchmark)
- WS75 = $15/MT (75% of benchmark)
(Note: VLCC is mostly quoted in dollars and Aframax rates are commonly quoted in WS. Though lump-sum pricing is also used on some routes. Spot rates can then be distilled further to time charter equivalent (TCE) figures, which standardizes how much money a vessel earns per day after accounting for voyage-related costs, such as fuel, port charges, and canal fees for both laden and ballast legs.)The cost of a VLCC voyage from the Gulf Coast to Asia (red line and right axis in Figure 1 below) reached its highest point on record in early October, and most of that move has happened in just the last few weeks. Prior to the start of the War in Iran earlier this year, the voyage cost typically ranged between $8 million and $14 million. However, once the conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the range of reasonable freight rates became a thing of the past. VLCC costs doubled from $15 million the last week of February to nearly $30 million the first week of March, setting the first of many new record highs. From March through August, voyage costs generally ranged between about $18 million and $25 million, with some cooling off in June before momentum picked back up. In early October, the cost skyrocketed to more than $80 million. (That works out to roughly $40/bbl, compared with a historical norm of $4-$5/bbl.) The nearly $30 million voyage cost that seemed extraordinary in March — more than double the upper end of the prewar range — now looks modest. Rates have since eased off the record, with the VLCC voyage at $65.39 million as of October 19 — still nearly five times the top of the prewar range. The Aframax voyage from the USGC to Europe (blue line and left axis) has been choppier this year, but it reached WS1,000 on October 6, about 6X the year-ago rate, before easing to WS648.89 by October 19.On the tanker supply side, much of this year's market upheaval stems from conflicts involving Russia and Iran (see Go With The Flow). Attacks on vessels, sanctions and threats to key shipping lanes have made shipping riskier, forced costly detours, and reshaped how crude moves around the world. Oil tankers have also increasingly become strategic assets, with Middle Eastern oil majors aggressively acquiring VLCCs at prices exceeding $200 million per vessel, effectively removing these vessels from the spot market. Combined with port congestion, fleet inefficiencies from ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, and elevated drydocking activity, these developments have further tightened an already constrained fleet.On the tanker demand side, China’s crude imports have rebounded following the lifting of refined product export restrictions, while drone strikes on Russian oil export terminals (see Rock Bottom) have prompted buyers to seek alternative supplies. Meanwhile, Middle East barrels are increasingly rerouted via Saudi’s East-West Pipeline and Egypt’s SUMED Pipeline to the Mediterranean, while some cargoes bound for Asia must take longer voyages via Gibraltar and the Cape of Good Hope. These extended sailing distances increase ton-mile demand and vessel turnaround times, effectively absorbing additional tanker capacity and leaving fewer ships available for other cargoes. One major factor driving freight rates has been the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which set off two chain reactions. First, Asian buyers had to replace Saudi crude previously exported through Yanbu with alternative grades, resulting in a surge of last-minute tanker bookings, particularly from Chinese refineries (more on that below). Second, Saudi Arabia, along with other Middle East suppliers, has redirected some crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler’s AIS tracking, an average of 32 VLCCs exited the strait per week in October on a four-week moving average, approaching the 36 weekly transits recorded before the U.S.-Iran conflict. Although crude flow has yet to fully recover, tanker demand has risen sharply because extensive ship-to-ship transfers around Fujairah and Sohar, both major oil-shipping hubs just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly reduced fleet efficiency. A voyage from inside the strait to Fujairah that once took about four days now requires 12–15 days, including waiting time and STS transfers.As a result, Sohar has become a busy hub. STS transfers, where cargo is moved from one vessel to another at sea (a common practice in areas like the U.S. Gulf Coast; see our weekly Crude Voyager report for more), are picking up there not only for crude but also for refined products such as naphtha and diesel. In August alone, 60 VLCC cargoes left Sohar this way. That pace slowed in September to 49 cargoes, after Iran stepped up attacks on commercial ships along the Omani route, with two vessels hit on September 11. Unlike STS operations associated with U.S. crude exports, where smaller tankers such as Aframaxes often transfer cargo to a VLCC to top it off, crude transfers in the Strait of Hormuz region can involve two VLCCs. In these cases, a VLCC typically controlled by a Middle Eastern oil producer transports the crude from the loading terminal to a lightering area outside of the Strait of Hormuz, where the cargo is transferred to another VLCC for delivery to its final destination. This arrangement allows the receiving vessel to avoid entering higher-risk waters but adds vessel time, costs and logistical complexity. As STS capacity near Fujairah and Sohar becomes increasingly constrained, some transfers are shifting to more distant locations, including offshore Malaysia, further reducing tanker fleet efficiency. For example, the 2016-built VLCC Maran Ariadne transferred its cargo to the 2009-built Sakuragawa offshore Malaysia on September 20. The combined operation required about 34 VLCC days to transport crude from Fujairah to Sakai, Japan, compared with 26 days for a direct voyage, adding about 31% vessel time and reducing transport efficiency.This alternative route has also added costs for crude suppliers and charterers, including additional war risk premiums (AWRP) for insurance and extra fees when ships are held longer than expected (demurrage). However, Middle East suppliers and Asian buyers remain incentivized to move these barrels, supported by Saudi official selling price (OSP) discounts and elevated delivered crude prices in Asia, leaving plenty of room to pay for expensive freight. Together, these factors gave the oil tanker market a boost at a time of year when it’s usually softer. McQuilling expects crude tanker freight rates to remain firm if Middle Eastern crude continues to rely heavily on STS operations.In addition, some of the 3-4 MMb/d that used to move through the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, including cargoes headed to Europe, are reportedly going to Asia instead, generating longer voyage distances (as much as 2.5X) and increased tanker demand. Fujairah is seeing more liftings too. Since the United Arab Emirates (UAE) left OPEC earlier this year (see Canary in a Coal Mine), more crude has been arriving there, mostly via two routes that skip the usual path. The first is the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline, which can move about 1.5 MMb/d to Fujairah, with plans to double that by 2027. The second is the “dark” voyages along the Omani coast, where ships turn off their tracking signals.After the U.S.-Iran war broke out, China moved to keep domestic oil prices steady. It temporarily banned fuel exports, set mandatory run rates for independent “teapot” refiners and likely drew down commercial and strategic crude stocks. Crude imports fell sharply as state-owned refiners cut runs and the country stopped filling its strategic reserve. That started to change in August, when Beijing fully lifted the product export ban and issued August and September quotas that were higher than before the war (see Help!). Better margins have pushed refinery runs back up, particularly for diesel amid the global supply shortage, and have since encouraged refiners to increase runs, supporting a recovery in crude imports.Domestic demand is getting other boosts too, such as Golden Week, a major Chinese holiday period when millions of people travel, increasing demand for gasoline and jet fuel. Now, Shanghai crude futures are above Brent for the first time since May. On September 16, the October Shanghai crude contract traded at a record 838.6 yuan/bbl (or about $123/bbl), compared with roughly $106/bbl for Brent, a premium of about $17/bbl. China is also returning to seaborne Russian crude. Reuters reported that Sinopec, the state-owned oil major, bought at least 10 Aframax-sized cargoes of Russian ESPO crude a month from July through September after a temporary U.S. waiver. Looking ahead, a strengthening Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar could further improve China's purchasing power for dollar-denominated crude, while rising per-capita incomes should provide additional support to domestic oil consumption. McQuilling therefore expects the recovery in Chinese crude imports to provide a significant tailwind to global crude tanker demand heading into 2027.In our second piece, we'll dig into why tanker supply is so tight: Russian export infrastructure under Ukrainian drone attack, 63 tankers disabled by strikes this year, a fleet bunched up in the Atlantic while East of Suez demand recovers, congestion backing up the Mediterranean, and a surge in VLCC dry dockings. Together, these are shrinking effective capacity and keeping freight rates elevated and relief looks far off until new ships arrive and Middle East crude stops leaning so heavily on ship-to-ship transfers.
Largest gas pipeline network in Northwest could grow as Oklahoma-based owners pursue expansion - The Oklahoma-based company that owns one of the largest gas pipeline networks in the Northwest is beginning to pursue permits to expand that network, and to pump more gas to the region to meet rising electricity demand. Pipeline company Williams, owner of the 4,000-mile long Northwest Pipeline system that brings fracked gas from Rocky Mountain states to Idaho, Washington and Oregon, last month submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission paperwork to build a new pipeline called the Silver Spur between two existing gas transmission lines in Idaho and Nevada. The news was first reported by the nonprofit gas industry watchdog group Oil and Gas Watch. If approved, the 88-mile pipeline would carry up to 275 million additional standard cubic feet of natural gas per day to the Northwest, while states like Oregon and Washington simultaneously try to drive down gas consumption through policies and pollution caps meant to slow the growing threat of climate change. Environmental advocates say Williams’ claims that the pipeline is meant to meet overall demand for electricity growing in the region masks that the demand is being driven almost entirely by data centers. The Hood River-based nonprofit environmental organization is raising alarms about the proposed expansion with state officials and earlier this year led 20 organizations in calling on Washington and Oregon leaders to block fossil fuel expansion in the region. Two analyses from Columbia Riverkeeper and the Seattle-based think tank Sightline Institute show that a growing number of Northwest utility companies are spending on new gas-powered energy infrastructure or buying gas-powered energy from other states to power new demand coming almost exclusively from data centers. A recent analysis by ECOnorthwest found data centers today are responsible for nearly one-quarter of all power consumption in Oregon. A spokesperson for Williams on Thursday said the company does not disclose information about its customers, and that analyses show the Northwest will continue to need natural gas and more of it. “Natural gas remains a critical part of maintaining reliability as renewable energy and demand continues to grow,” they wrote. As part of the permitting process, FERC and other federal agencies will review the Silver Spur project, and eventually hold public meetings and comment periods. The company has said in interviews it plans to complete the pipeline in 2030. The pipeline expansion would be significantly more than the 150 million cubic feet per day that Canadian pipeline company TC Energy was approved to add to its Gas Transmission Northwest Express pipeline in 2023, and that got major pushback from the region’s Democratic leaders, including U.S. Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley of Oregon and then-Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington.
Woodfibre LNG Moves Up Construction Target as Project Reaches 75% Completion- Woodfibre LNG disclosed construction of its British Columbia (BC) export facility is approximately 75% complete, advancing another source of natural gas demand toward startup as Western Canadian prices remain under pressure. At a Glance:
- Construction roughly 75% complete
- Commissioning targeted next year
- Project adds roughly 300 MMcf/d demand
Coastal GasLink Expansion Moves Forward With New Engineering Deal -LNG Canada has awarded a contract worth more than $224 million to advance the second phase of the Coastal GasLink pipeline and nearly double natural gas transportation capacity following a final investment decision (FID) on the British Columbia export terminal's expansion. At a Glance:
- Pipeline capacity expected to nearly double
- Construction targeted to begin in 2027
- Five new compressor stations planned
Canadian LPG Stocks Drop, Exiting September Below Normal Levels | RBN Energy - Western Canada saw large drops in LPG inventories in September, especially butanes, according to data released by the Canadian Energy Regulator on October 15. Butanes inventories in Western and Eastern Canada, and propane inventories in Eastern Canada, are below normal for this time of year, while Western Canada propane inventories are near normal for this time of year.Western Canadian propane inventories fell by 889 Mbbl month-over-month, to exit September at 6.92 MMbbl, or about 1% below the prior five year average for September (see left chart below), after exiting August above the prior five-year August high. In Eastern Canada, stocks gained 281 Mbbl month-over-month, but remain near prior five-year seasonal lows, exiting September at 3.1 MMbbl (right chart below).Butanes inventories in Western Canada saw an even steeper drop, declining by 1.12 MMbbl, to exit September at 3.75 MMbbl, which is 10% below the prior five-year average for September (see left chart below). The large decline in Western Canadian LPG stocks, and large 3.3 MMbbl build in Western Canadian inventories of NGL mix, may imply low utilization of Alberta fractionation capacity in September. Eastern Canada butanes inventories fell by 369 Mbbl to exit September at 2.91 MMbbl, which is 14% below the five-year average for September (see right chart below).
Amigo LNG Faces Environmental Review as US Exports to Mexico Dip -US natural gas exports to Mexico are dipping heading into winter, even as new LNG projects and other demand drivers appear on the horizon. NGI chart comparing Agua Dulce and Waha natural gas bidweek prices with US pipeline exports to Mexico from October 2023 through October 2026. At a Glance:
ECA targets year-end startup
Permian underpins proposed export capacity
Henry Hub slips below $3/MMBtu
From Mexico to Argentina, AI Data Centers Fuel New Natural Gas Demand Prospects - Latin American entrepreneurs are eyeing natural gas to support a growing data center buildout to support artificial intelligence (AI) across the region. At a Glance:
- AI seen transforming regional energy markets
- Venezuela flares 2 Bcf/d of natural gas
- Colombia plans $180M LNG import project
Argentina LNG Targets 2027 Exports as Global Buyers Seek Supply Diversity - Argentina is on track to export its first LNG by the end of 2027, according to developer Southern Energy CCO Matias Lacabanne. At a Glance:
- Pipeline financing clears critical hurdle
- European buyer anchors long-term commitments
- Hilli Episeyo targets 2.45 Mt/y capacity
North American LNG Exports Gaining Leg Up as Middle East Outages Drag On -After more than seven months of Middle East LNG outages caused by the Iran war, North American export projects are getting a boost from buyers increasingly looking for supply diversity, according to developers. NGI chart projects North American LNG export capacity growth to 2033, highlighting Golden Pass, Rio Grande LNG and other major projects. At a Glance:
Buyers seeking diversity, security
Coastal Bend, Alaska LNG seeing more interest
Demand strengthening despite outages
US Feedgas Demand Surges, With Europe Claiming Bulk of Cargoes -NGI LNG export tracker shows US feedgas deliveries rebounding to 19.52 million Dth on Oct. 21, 2026, with flows to nine LNG terminals. US LNG feedgas demand rebounded Wednesday, climbing about 1.3 Bcf/d from Tuesday, according to Entropic Analytics’ US Daily Supply & Demand Report. The gain reversed a one-day dip at Cameron LNG and Freeport LNG and left deliveries within about 250 MMcf/d of Sunday’s 20.7 Bcf/d, the highest daily level since at least early 2025. Feedgas demand averaged 20.1 Bcf/d over the latest seven days, up from about 19.1 Bcf/d the preceding week, as nominations resumed at Cove Point LNG and intake climbed at Sabine Pass and Plaquemines. Reported pipeline data may still be lagging behind intrastate flows. NGI estimates show about 2 Bcf/d of implied deliveries to Corpus Christi and Freeport through intrastate pipelines over the four weeks ended Oct. 18, with Corpus Christi
Mild Europe, Asia Forecasts Limit Weather-Driven Demand for US LNG - Weather forecasts Tuesday pointed to below-normal heating demand in Europe and a largely near-seasonal pattern in North Asia into early November, limiting weather-driven demand for US LNG.NGI charts compare daily mean temperatures with historical normals in Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo through Oct. 20, 2026. At a Glance:
European heating demand seen below normal
EU storage fill lowest in 5 years
North Asia weather near seasonal
EU gas storage levels below historical average: Commission - European Union gas storage levels are below the historical average, but the bloc does not currently face a security of supply issue despite the prospect of a difficult winter, European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said Wednesday. Speaking at the midday press briefing, Itkonen said the EU was closely monitoring gas storage levels and holding more frequent coordination meetings with member states to assess the situation across the bloc. “On gas storage, we are lower than the historical average,” Itkonen said, noting that the issue was also discussed at last week’s European Council summit. “Despite the fact that we are headed for a difficult winter, we do not have a security supply issue, but the crisis in the Middle East is impacting energy prices, and this impacts then our gas storage levels,” she said. Itkonen also noted that the EU does not have legally mandated strategic gas stocks, raising the possibility of discussions on establishing strategic gas reserves. “This is something that we can start having a discussion about strategic gas reserves,” she said. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are complicating efforts to replenish European inventories, while reduced LNG supplies from the Middle East are tightening the global market.
European Parliament Backs Longer Methane Rule Delay for LNG Importers - The European Parliament voted Thursday to delay significant methane reporting regulations for fossil fuel importers by three years after a lengthy campaign among the continent’s top suppliers that opposed next year’s deadline and warned they would not be able to comply.EU natural gas storage was 74.6% full at 844.56 TWh on Oct. 20, 2026, trailing the five-year average by 165.5 TWh. At a Glance:
Parliament pushing for 3-year delay
Would extend timeline until 2031
Clarity sought on implementation
EU Policy Draft Softens Language on Arctic Drilling - The European Union looks to be relaxing its opposition to oil and gas production in polar areas, while still calling for all fossil fuels to be kept in the ground in its forthcoming Arctic strategy. A draft of the strategy, seen by Bloomberg, contains no references to a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, marking a shift in wording from the EU's 2021 stance. The wording has been a topic of intense discussions between the trade bloc and Norway, which has lobbied hard for the EU to abandon its climate-based opposition to oil and gas exploration in the high north. The Nordic nation awarded five oil and gas exploration licenses in the Barents Sea, which is part of the Arctic, in last year's licensing round and opened up 38 blocks in 2026 for applications. Norway supplied almost a third of EU's gas imports last year, including a small part from those fields. The petroleum industry's fear was that the EU would pledge not to buy oil and gas from Norway's new Arctic fields. Instead, the draft says the union will "prioritize" renewable energy sources and hydrocarbons produced outside the Arctic. The European Commission also says it will work toward an international commitment to prevent further development of Arctic oil and gas resources, or purchases from them, when such activity "poses a threat to the Arctic ecosystem." In 2021, the EU had said that "building on the partial moratoriums on hydrocarbons exploration in the Arctic" in parts of the US, Canada and Greenland, "the EU is committed to ensuring that oil, coal and gas stay in the ground, including in Arctic regions" and that it would work toward "a multilateral legal obligation not to allow any further hydrocarbon reserve development in the Arctic or contiguous regions, nor to purchase such hydrocarbons if they were to be produced." The latest draft also reiterates the EU's broader commitment to work toward keeping coal, oil and gas in the ground, including in the Arctic, in line with its climate targets. The bloc has set a legally binding goal of cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 from the 1990 level. A spokesperson for Equinor ASA, which already produces oil and gas and is exploring more fields in the Barents Sea - referred questions to the Energy Department, and a spokesperson for the ministry declined to comment ahead of the strategy's release. Environmental groups said the changes don't amount to a significant retreat by Brussels. Paal Frisvold, who heads the Alliance to Preserve the Moratorium on Oil Drilling in the Arctic, told Bloomberg that he believes that the omission of the word moratorium makes the key message on climate stronger, adding "EU is determined to keep fossil fuels in the ground." The draft text also maintains the EU's opposition to deep-sea mining until scientific knowledge gaps have been "satisfactorily filled." Norway in 2024 approved seabed mining, although no such works have yet started.
Middle East Tensions Rise, Pushing Global Natural Gas Prices to Four-Year Highs -The possibility of the United States and Iran again trading attacks, along with escalating tensions elsewhere in the Middle East that are once again threatening a broader conflict, continued Monday to push global natural gas prices higher. NGI chart showing European Union natural gas storage at 843.65 TWh, or 74.5% full, on Oct. 17, 2026, up 14.1 TWh year over year but 163.8 TWh below the five-year average. At a Glance:
- EU inventories at 15-year low
- TTF-JKM spread narrows
- US feedgas deliveries hit record
Hormuz LNG Crossings Increase as Qatar Steps Up Dark Loadings - Qatar has stepped up dark loadings with LNG carriers taking on cargoes without transmitting signals that show their location as the country works to sell more of the super-chilled fuel amid a conflict that has impacted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Vessel tracking firm Kpler said it has detected an increase in the loadings at Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan Industrial City since late August by monitoring satellite imagery and tugboat movement. Two liquefaction trains at the complex were damaged by Iranian strikes earlier this year, knocking out about 17% of the country’s output.
LPG prices surge to Rs750 per kg in parts of KP amid supply shortages - Pakistan Observer – The consumers across Pakistan are struggling with sharply rising liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices as supply disruptions push rates to Rs750 per kilogram in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with some cylinder prices exceeding Rs10,000. The situation has worsened over the past five to six days following a decline in LPG supplies, which officials have linked to the closure of the Taftan border amid tensions involving Iran and the United States. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has yet to initiate a planned crackdown on companies and retailers accused of overcharging consumers. Authorities are reportedly concerned that enforcement measures could provoke protests or strikes, further disrupt supplies and deepen the ongoing energy crisis. Although OGRA has set the official LPG price at Rs279.34 per kilogram for the current month, consumers in several areas are reportedly paying between Rs550 and Rs600 per kilogram. In Peshawar, the commodity is selling for around Rs600 per kilogram, while prices in northern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have climbed to Rs750. A senior OGRA official said Pakistan relies on imports for approximately 70 per cent of its LPG requirements, with domestic production accounting for the remaining 30 per cent. An OGRA spokesperson said the authority was working to resolve the situation. The spokesperson acknowledged that the closure of the Taftan border had created supply difficulties but expressed hope that the problem would be brought under control soon. The price escalation has particularly affected low-income households in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where shortages of natural gas have compounded the problem. Residents in rural areas and the outskirts of Peshawar have increasingly turned to firewood for cooking as LPG and piped gas become harder to obtain. However, the shift has also raised firewood prices by Rs200 to Rs300 per maund. Previously sold for Rs1,400 to Rs1,600 per maund, firewood now costs between Rs1,600 and Rs1,800, adding to the financial burden on households already facing rising fuel expenses. Consumers remain vulnerable to further price increases if supply disruptions continue and regulatory intervention fails to stabilise the market.
New Sensation – India Appears Primed to Lead the Next Era of Global Refining Expansions | RBN Energy - Global refining is entering a new phase. After decades of capacity growth centered in China and the Middle East, the baton is passing to India, where rapidly rising fuel demand is driving a new wave of refinery investment. About 900 Mb/d of capacity is slated to come online through 2030, including expansions and grass-roots projects. More than 70% of this capacity is expected to start up before the end of next year, including some already beginning operations, adding perhaps 300 Mb/d of desperately needed middle distillate production. In today’s RBN blog, we examine India’s short- and long-term goals, the kinds of projects underway, and how the U.S. is playing a role in their development. The state of refining and the global refined products market has been a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere over the last several weeks, from war-related disruptions in the Middle East and Russia to surging diesel crack spreads and the possibility of a U.S. ban on diesel exports. But if U.S. refining capacity is near its limit and the disruptions in the Middle East and Russia continue, where could relief come from? As we noted in Help!, China is one potential alternative, largely because its refineries operate in a way that is unique in the global market. While refiners in the U.S. (and most everywhere else) make decisions on production rates, imports and exports based on what’s best for them individually, that’s not the case in China, where refiners operate within a very specific set of government controls. China has the potential to increase its refinery runs and product exports, but only if it chooses to do so, which isn’t necessarily based on market conditionsAs noted in our recently updated Future of Fuels report, the two regions which led the way in refining additions over the past couple of decades, China and the Middle East, have largely moved away from adding fuels-focused capacity. Instead, India and (to a lesser extent) Africa are taking the lead in capacity increases and are likely to be responsible for most of total net global capacity growth through 2030. We expect India to add about 900 Mb/d of capacity through eight small/medium, mostly brownfield expansions at state-owned plants, accounting for about 60% of the 1,489 Mb/d of growth seen in the Asia Pacific region (green bar in Figure 1 below). In contrast, the U.S. (red bar) is expected to see its capacity fall by 66 Mb/d over the same period.The African expansions (purple bar in Figure 1) should add up to 510 Mb/d and include the final ramp up of the 700-Mb/d Dangote refinery this year (see Almost There) and several smaller refineries (primarily in Angola). While the prospects for the Indian projects are pretty firm (and discussed in detail below), there is greater uncertainty regarding the startup and operating success of the Angolan projects and the long-term operations of Dangote (or the prospects of two proposed new and similarly large Dangote plants that aren’t included in our forecasts through 2030). Also note that smaller expansions of refining capacity are expected in Canada/Mexico and the Middle East, while no changes are seen in Europe and Central/South America.Before we dig into the details of what’s planned in India, let’s start with the big-picture view. The Asia Pacific region, and especially China, has been on a tear for the past three decades in adding refining capacity. Since 1995, China by itself has grown capacity by more than 4X (14+ MMb/d). Unlike the Middle East, where much of the capacity was export-oriented, Chinese (and most other Asia Pacific) capacity growth targeted rapidly growing domestic demand for transportation fuels. With slowing transportation fuels demand growth, this dynamic has shifted in recent years as most new projects, particularly those in China, have shifted toward petrochemicals. A major exception is India, where government-owned oil companies are advancing refining projects to keep up with rapidly growing domestic fuels demand (although petchems are becoming a growing focus there as well).Of the eight refinery projects that we’re tracking (see Figure 2 below), six are expected to be online by the end of 2027 (and much of that in just the next few months). These projects, including a pair of grass-roots refineries (Barmer and Nagapattinam), are sponsored by several government-owned entities (IOCL, HPCL, OIL, HRRL, BPCL and CPCL), with the largest, IOCL, participating wholly or in part in five projects. All the projects are geared more toward middle distillates than gasoline, producing about 370 Mb/d combined, and three include significant petchem integration.Here’s where each of those eight projects currently stand, including six expansions (blue refinery icons in Figure 2 above) and two grass-roots projects (green icons):
- IOCL’s Barauni project will add 60 Mb/d of refining capacity to process medium-weight crudes, with much of it likely sourced from the Middle East. (Nearly all of India’s new capacity by 2030 is aimed at these types of crudes.) This project, which has seen several delays, is reportedly still planned to start up before the end of this year, although we don't expect the full amount of additional capacity to be effective until 2027, and further delays are possible.
- IOCL’s Koyali project will add 86 Mb/d of capacity and includes integration with the refinery’s lube and petchem units. Progressive commissioning of units is already underway but we don’t believe full capacity will be reached until Q1 2027.
- The HCPL/HRRL Barmer 180-Mb/d refinery, one of two grass-roots projects in Figure 2, began startup in June after a several-month delay due to a fire. While gasoline and diesel sales have begun, full operations on heavier, higher-sulfur crudes and startup of petrochemical units are not expected until H1 2027. When complete it will have the highest level of petrochemical integration of any refinery in India.
- While some parts of the project are already going through commissioning steps, the bulk of startup activities at IOCL’s 200-Mb/d expansion of its Panipat refinery (the largest addition of capacity among these projects) are not expected to begin until November or December, with full capacity expected by the end of H1 2027, although minor slippage is possible.
- The startup date for 120 Mb/d of new capacity at Oil India and NRL’s Numaligarh refinery has continued to slip, with a recent update from the sponsors moving the schedule back from early 2027 to later in the year, with full capacity operations not until year-end 2027. It is possible that this could slip a bit further into 2028.
- The 6-Mb/d expansion at IOCL’s Digboi refinery (the smallest of the group) is primarily focused on improving yields of transportation fuels. Its startup has been pushed back to mid-2027 (from mid-2026) as delays continue.
- The 60-Mb/d upgrade to BPCL’s Bina refinery is focused on expanding petchem production, and also includes a green hydrogen plant. Those additions are expected online by 2029.
- The last project is IOCL/CPCL’s 180-Mb/d refinery in Nagapattinam, the second grass-roots project on our list. The site has recently been restructured to change focus from fuels to petrochemicals. Its official startup date has been pushed from the end of 2027 to 2030, and it’s possible it could be delayed into the early 2030s.
As with China, several other proposed major projects in India are on our Watch List, including greenfield and brownfield projects. Two of the more probable are the brownfield expansions of the two largest privately owned refining complexes in western India’s Gujarat state — Nayara Energy’s plant in Vadinar and Reliance’s mega-complex in Jamnagar. If/when they are completed, they would add 250 Mb/d and 500 Mb/d of capacity, respectively. We note that Reliance remains in talks to acquire a 49+% interest in Nayara from Rosneft, which would make it the largest refiner in India (surpassing IOCL). In addition, HPCL/HRRL’s Vizag refinery is planning another expansion (following its recent expansion) of up to 100 Mb/d. A 180-Mb/d greenfield plant sponsored by BPCL is approaching a final investment decision (FID) and is another project to keep an eye on, with a possible startup by as early as 2030 if everything goes well. Saudi Aramco is also involved in potential joint ventures (JVs) in India with IOCL and others, which are the ones to watch in the long term. Since diesel production is so critical now, we will also note one other project which was recently completed but did not add crude capacity: HPCL’s resid hydrocracker at its Visakh refinery. This unit started up earlier this year and can increase the refinery’s overall diesel production by around 35 Mb/d.The added refining capacity is critical for India. After a decline in 2026, India is expected to add about 333 Mb/d of total liquids products demand in 2027 and another 251 Mb/d in 2028, while Other Asia/Pacific adds about 352 Mb/d and 197 Mb/d in those years. India is forecast to see significant increases in demand for liquids products well into the 2040s, a sharp contrast with most of the global market, as shown in Figure 3 below. European demand began falling in the 2019-25 period (dark-blue bar in Europe grouping), U.S. demand growth is expected to reverse by the 2030-35 period (green bar in U.S. grouping), while Chinese demand turns negative by the 2035-40 period (purple bar in China grouping), thanks in large part to the rapid acceleration of EV adoption. While Indian refiners and their government-owned parents are providing most of the capital for this phase of refinery expansion, U.S. companies are playing an important supporting role by supplying the advanced technologies, engineering services, catalysts and specialized equipment needed to turn more crude into higher-value, cleaner products.The most directly relevant development came during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February 2025 visit to Washington. President Trump and Modi formally recommitted to the U.S.-India Energy Security Partnership and agreed to increase bilateral energy trade. The joint statement specifically called for establishing the U.S. as a leading supplier of crude oil and petroleum products to India and for increasing investment in oil-and-gas infrastructure and cooperation between U.S. and Indian energy companies.Washington’s role has generally been to facilitate U.S. commercial participation rather than directly fund India’s refinery construction. The U.S. Trade and Development Agency has financed feasibility and engineering studies aimed at introducing U.S. technologies at Indian refineries, while the U.S. Export-Import Bank has historically provided financing that enabled Indian refiners to purchase U.S. equipment, technology and services.That involvement is particularly evident at Numaligarh. Honeywell UOP is providing technology for a new diesel hydrotreater designed to produce India’s BS-VI-spec diesel, while Chevron Lummus Global (CLG) is supplying residue-upgrading and hydrotreating technologies, along with engineering, catalysts, equipment and technical services. At Barauni, Indian Oil has also selected CLG hydrocracking technology. U.S. refining technology has been deployed at other Indian facilities, including Panipat, although some of those investments predate the current expansion program.India’s refinery buildout comes as the global refining map is shifting and fuel-demand growth increasingly tilts toward emerging markets. With a firm 900 Mb/d of capacity in the works (and more possible), India is positioning itself to meet rising domestic demand while expanding its petrochemical capabilities. And there’s a U.S. angle: American technology is helping enable the projects, while growing Indian crude requirements could provide another important outlet for U.S. barrels in the years ahead.
Russia boosts oil supplies to China by 18.3% - Russia increased its oil supplies to China by 18.3% year-on-year in January-September, reaching 87.59 million tonnes.In September alone, Russian oil shipments to China rose by around 20%. The value of exports in the first nine months of the year increased by 36.6% to $51.55 billion, according to Chinese customs data cited by RIA Novosti.
UAE confirms oil spill off coast and temporarily closes Umm Al Quwain beaches -UAE authorities are working to contain an oil spill from a supertanker in the Arabian Gulf, with Umm Al Quwain Municipality intensifying efforts to limit pollution and protect marine habitats. The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment confirmed the incident early on Friday morning. It said the spill is causing a strong smell that residents of Dubai and the northern emirates have reported in recent days. The ministry did not name the vessel, but international maritime agencies say the Gem No.2 was struck in a suspected Iranian drone attack on October 9 to 10. Twenty-two Indian sailors were rescued from the 330-metre vessel at the time. Gulf nations urged to tackle 'unprecedented' environmental damage from Iran war Iran war causing 'unprecedented' ecological damage in Gulf The extent of the oil slick is unclear, but the incident was confirmed amid growing concerns about the environmental impact of the Iran war on the Gulf and the Arabian Sea. On Friday afternoon, Sharjah authorities closed Al Hamriya Beach as a precautionary measure after Umm Al Quwain temporarily closed all beaches and coastal areas. Umm Al Quwain Municipality said it was carrying out field operations to contain the effects of the spill and minimise damage to marine and coastal environments. The municipality will monitor conditions, identify affected areas and support clean-up and treatment work as part of those efforts. Specialists will also help to assess the impact of the spill and determine appropriate measures. People in the UAE have in recent days reported an acrid and strong fuel smell in the air. The ministry said there was no health risk from the odour, but advised the public to stay away from any oil that washes ashore. "The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment confirms the UAE’s technical monitoring and environmental assessment system detected a tanker oil spill affecting Umm Al Quwain’s beaches," it said in a statement. "Odours noticed in Sharjah, Ajman and Umm Al Quwain pose no health risks to residents. … "Teams immediately began containment, cordoning, clean-up and remediation with local and federal authorities to limit environmental impacts. Precautionary coastal surveys, monitoring and assessments continue to gauge impacts and protect the marine environment. "With relevant authorities, the ministry has temporarily closed all Umm Al Quwain beaches and coastal areas until technical teams complete assessments and identify safety and marine protection measures. Fishermen and sea users are urged to follow authorities’ instructions and avoid fishing in affected areas." Dr Diana Francis, an associate professor and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, said oil spills caused by the regional conflict could create odours. “When an oil spill happens, it continues to move with the currents unless it is removed and cleaned completely,” she told The National before the ministry confirmed the oil slick incident. “Several spills can also move with the currents and accumulate in favourable gyre [rotating ocean current] areas. Then with time, heat and winds, they evaporate into the air and give off fuel-like odours. “Oil doesn't mix with water. It continues to float until it is removed or evaporate with time.” Prashant Kumar, professor of air quality and health at the University of Surrey in the UK, said air pollution – and the smells that it brings with it – can travel over long distances. “The smell can travel tens of kilometres,” he said, in comments also made before the ministry's statement on Friday. “It depends on the meteorological conditions, it depends on the wind speed and the wind direction. You can easily have the longer-range transport of pollutants from one place to another.”
UAE's Ras Al Khaimah shuts all beaches as neighbours grapple with oil spill |(Reuters) - Ras Al Khaimah authorities said on Saturday that all beaches in the emirate would be closed until further notice, a day after an offshore oil leak prompted beach closures in neighbouring Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah. The Public Services Department announced the closures in a statement shared by Ras Al Khaimah Police General Headquarters. No reason was given. The United Arab Emirates said on Friday that efforts were underway to contain oil leaking from a tanker offshore, with its Ministry of Climate Change and Environment conducting an environmental assessment. All beaches and coastal areas around the city of Umm Al Quwain were temporarily closed until technical teams completed their assessments and determined the necessary safety and marine protection measures, the ministry said. The ministry also urged fishermen and other sea users to avoid affected areas and follow official instructions. Authorities in Sharjah temporarily closed Al Hamriyah Beach, on the UAE's northern coast near the border with Umm Al Quwain, as a precaution, the Sharjah Government Media Bureau said. Since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, attacks on commercial vessels in Gulf shipping lanes have heightened concerns about maritime security and the conflict's environmental fallout. Ras Al Khaimah, a northern UAE emirate known for its beaches and luxury resorts, is also home to Wynn Resorts' planned casino resort on Al Marjan Island. The Las Vegas-based operator, which won the UAE's first commercial gaming licence in 2024, said in February it expected the resort to open in the first quarter of 2027. Wynn said in March it had resumed construction after a brief pause, even as the Iran war continued to disrupt businesses across the Middle East. Residents reported unusual odours in parts of Sharjah, Ajman and Umm Al Quwain, but the UAE's environment ministry said they posed no health risks. The smell remained pungent across Umm Al Quwain on Friday. UAE authorities have not named the tanker involved in the incident or said what caused the spill.
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Attacks Put Oil Prices and Trump's Midterm Hopes at Risk -Iran's escalating attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz have heightened pressure on global oil prices and added to President Donald Trump's political challenges ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. At least 23 attacks were recorded during the first two weeks of October, according to data by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The surge threatens shipments through a critical Gulf energy route as U.S. households face higher fuel costs. Iranian officials have described the period before the election as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Washington. October's attack tally exceeded the monthly totals recorded since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to UKMTO figures. Six vessels were attacked on one Sunday, while 12 incidents were recorded between Oct. 5 and 11. Two commercial vessels, the container ship GFS Pride and the dry bulk carrier Cape Dao, sank near the strait in mid-October after sustaining damage in separate attacks. The loss brought the reported number of commercial vessels sunk since the conflict began to three, according to an analysis of International Maritime Organization (IMO) casualty data. The IMO has reported 24 seafarer deaths in incidents near Hormuz during the conflict. Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority condemned the attacks in a statement. "MPA is deeply concerned about the continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority said in a statement. "Such attacks are unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law." Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Oct. 17 amid concerns about shipping near Hormuz and repeated missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained, reaching $94.64 a barrel earlier in the week. Combined crude oil and petroleum product exports through Hormuz and alternative routes fell to an estimated 9.5 million barrels per day over the preceding week, according to the energy market, which compares with a recent high of 16 million barrels per day and a September average of 14 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency warned on Oct. 15 that pressure on global diesel supplies could persist into the first half of 2027. Diplomatic uncertainty has added to concerns about when shipping volumes might recover. The lack of progress on the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track "leaves little immediate prospect of a full reopening of the waterway," said Firas Bechwaty, head of business development at trading platform ICM. Iranian officials and regional diplomats said that Tehran views the weeks before the U.S. elections as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Trump. Iranian leaders expect the president to be less politically sensitive to elevated energy prices after Americans have voted. "It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks, both from themselves and via the Houthis," said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler. The political concern centers on fuel costs, which affect household spending and transportation expenses. U.S. gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and climbed above $4 within two months. At least six states subsequently recorded average gasoline prices above $5 a gallon, while diesel prices rose 71% from the start of the war. A Pew Research Center report found that 74% of Americans were concerned about gas and energy prices. Separately, a Politico poll found that 29% of undecided voters said a $1 reduction in gasoline prices wouldn't make them more inclined to vote Republican. Neither survey directly measured the electoral impact of the latest attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has sought to maintain pressure on Iran while addressing the economic effects of disrupted oil supplies. In a Truth Social post, he said his blockade of Iranian oil exports had left the country in a "very bad condition," adding that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections." The statement didn't rule out further U.S. strikes after Election Day. The administration has also explored measures to increase available oil supplies, and it was considering easing sanctions on some "shadow fleet" vessels used to transport oil from countries including Russia. HSBC analysts have warned that Brent crude could reach approximately $120 a barrel if diplomatic efforts fail and oil flows through Hormuz remain near current levels.
Global oil prices fall following a U.S. decision to suspend sanctions on Russia – Oil prices fell significantly on Monday, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend sanctions and tariffs imposed on Russia. This move is also expected to pave the way for an increase in the flow and export of Russian fuel to global markets. In terms of trading, Brent crude futures fell by $1.94, or 1.77%, to reach $107.92 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 83 cents, or 0.82%, to stand at $100.58 per barrel. Trump had signed an executive order suspending key sanctions and tariffs against Moscow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that the U.S. administration would assess the economic impact of these decisions over a period of up to 60 days. Trump had signed an executive order suspending key sanctions and tariffs against Moscow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that the U.S. administration would assess the economic impact of these decisions over a period of up to 60 days. Despite downward pressure stemming from anticipated increases in Russian supply, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—along with ongoing attacks on commercial vessels—have helped limit price declines. This is due to persistent concerns regarding the safety of maritime navigation and the stability of global energy supplies.
Oil Eases as Traders Assess Supply Risks, Sanctions Waiver -- Oil futures retreated Monday morning after rallying Friday on the back of growing Middle East supply risks as escalating fighting in the region threatened a fragile oil supply recovery. By 9:30 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $2.18 to trade near $107.68 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $1.16 to $100.25 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slid $0.0472 to $4.8519 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0287 to $3.2067 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index steadied, down 0.008 points to 101.65 against a basket of foreign currencies. Iranian forces have markedly intensified attacks on vessels attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic has in reaction slowed down significantly, vessel tracking data showed. According to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, oil exports from the Persian Gulf averaged 8.5 million bpd last week, less than half of the average pace observed just the week prior. On Sunday, an oil tanker exploded after striking a mine in the waterway. The incident highlighted the lack of navigational safety and put into question frequently repeated claims that the oil chokepoint has been cleared of mines. Mounting threats to shipping fueled concerns of a deepening crude oil supply disruption just weeks after flows had finally rebounded near pre-war levels. The U.S., meanwhile, on Friday waived new sanctions on Russia just days before they were set to take effect. U.S. President Donald Trump, who last month signed the legislation passed by both chambers of Congress with bipartisan support, granted this 60-day suspension in an effort to ease retail fuel prices ahead of next month's elections. A week earlier, the Treasury suspended sanctions relating to Russian diesel exports after Trump announced he had struck a deal with the Kremlin that Russia will immediately supply the global market with 2.25 million bbl of diesel. Analysts, however, were largely skeptical that this additional supply will have a significant impact on prices. Question marks surrounding the country's ability to significantly ramp up exports as Ukrainian strikes have by now more than halved Russian refining capacity aside, the initial volume slated for October is equivalent to about 18 hours of U.S. diesel demand, or enough to meet less than two hours of global consumption.
Oil Prices Drop as Investors Take Profits Amid Middle East Tensions - Pakistan Observer - Global oil prices fell by more than $1 on Monday as investors booked profits following last week’s multi-month highs, while concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continued to support the market. Brent crude futures declined $1.72, or 1.6%, to $108.14 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 87 cents, or 0.86%, to $100.54 a barrel at 1427 GMT. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remained a key concern after attacks on commercial vessels reduced average daily crude flows to around 8.5 million barrels last week, down from more than 20 million barrels in the previous week, according to analytics firm Kpler. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Analysts warned that further attacks could disrupt oil exports, while Egypt’s offer to support Saudi Arabia against Yemen’s Houthis added to concerns over regional stability.
Oil Market Pushes Higher as Houthis Strike Saudi Energy Targets - The oil market traded higher as traders remained concerned about the continuing conflict in the Middle East, with the Iran-aligned Houthis attacking Saudi energy, airport and military targets on Monday. The market remained supported on the opening on Sunday evening after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The market later gave up some of its gains and posted a low of $99.24 on some profit taking. However, the market bounced off that level and settled in a sideways trading range before it extended its gains further in afternoon trading. The market, which posted a high of $104.18 ahead of the close, was well supported by the news that Yemen’s Houthis carried out attacks against an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha airport. The November WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $103.66, while the December Brent contract settled down 31 cents at $109.55. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.1 cents at $4.9201 and the RB market settling down 4.4 cents at $3.1914. During a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said regional issues should be resolved through diplomacy and blamed the United States for insecurity and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. He called for regional countries to work toward a joint security arrangement. Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Minister said that Russia has no interest in volatile energy prices. Kpler said increased attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Horzmuz cut Gulf crude flows to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million bpd last week from more than 20 million bpd the week before. At least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels were reported last week. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said his decision to waive sanctions and tariffs related to Russian exports is an effort to keep Russia at the negotiating table. On Saturday, the day after waiving sanctions and tariffs related to Russian exports, U.S. President Donald Trump said he has yet to announce a final decision on the matter, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said officials want more time to evaluate the situation. The U.S. Secretary of State said that President Trump will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs that he waived a day earlier. President Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the law known as the Graham Act, which he signed last month at the urging of lawmakers who want to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine. The measures, including tariffs on Russian goods and penalties on countries buying Russian oil and gas, were due to take effect next week. Friday’s order did not specify how long the waiver would last, but U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump opted for a 60-day review. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 479,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 95,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 213,000 bpd in the week ending October 30th.
Oil prices jump above $110 per barrel amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia - Pakistan Observer – Oil prices edged higher after Yemen’s Houthi group claimed attacks on Saudi energy facilities, airports and military targets, while a strike on a military training camp in Yemen added to regional security concerns. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.15%, to $110.03 per barrel. The increase followed a decline of more than $3 during the previous trading session, as investors took profits. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.68, or 1.66%, to $103.09 per barrel. On Monday, the Houthis claimed they had targeted several sites in Saudi Arabia, including a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha Airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the reported attacks. The latest developments have added to concerns over regional stability and potential risks to energy infrastructure, factors that can influence global oil prices. Meanwhile, the death toll from a missile attack attributed to Yemen’s Houthi movement on a military training centre in Shabwa province has climbed to 58, according to the provincial governor. The strike targeted a training facility near Ataq, the provincial capital, leaving more than 200 recruits injured. Several of the wounded are reportedly in critical condition. Local authorities denounced the attack, while Yemen’s internationally recognised government vowed to take a strong response following the deadly incident.
Oil Soars to 5-Month Highs on Mounting Supply Risks (DTN) -- Oil futures rose to their highest since May Tuesday morning amid intensifying Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and lingering Houthi threats on Saudi infrastructure supporting a higher geopolitical risk premium. WTI's front-month contract on its last trading day jumped more than 5% earlier in the session. By 7:55 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $2.18 to trade near $107.68 bbl. NYMEX WTI for November delivery soared $5.84 to $109.50 bbl, while the more actively traded December contract rose $2.07 to $100.61 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery advanced $0.0768 to $4.9969 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures edged higher $0.0166 to $3.2080 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.09 points to 101.695 against a basket of foreign currencies. Attacks on vessels in the region have so far in October been more frequent than at any other point during the conflict that started in late February. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center has so far this month reported of 30 attacks in and surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity intelligence firm Kpler on Monday said they had counted 18 verifiable ship attacks over the last two weeks alone. Iranian forces, meanwhile, alleged that two oil tankers had struck mines on Sunday, although no independent reports have so far confirmed the reports circulating in Tehran-affiliated media. Vessels crossing the waterway weren't the only ones subject to this new wave of Iranian attacks. Ships in the Gulf of Oman are also increasingly being targeted, threatening one of the few workarounds to the blockade of the strait. Saudi Arabia has over the past several months diverted as many crude oil loading operations as possible from terminals inside the Persian Gulf to offshore ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Houthi rebels have also ramped up attacks on Saudi Arabia since the start of the Yemeni Saudi-backed counteroffensive earlier this month. A spokesperson for the Tehran-allied militia on Monday claimed several new attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including the Shaybah oil field and the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi forces have previously successfully intercepted drones launched at the Shaybah field near the border with the United Arab Emirates, and Riyadh has so far not commented on Monday's alleged strikes. In reaction to the growing Houthi threat, the kingdom on Monday officially postponed a planned in-person economic forum citing security concerns. Elsewhere, market participants are awaiting weekly U.S. inventory reports to gauge the level of supply-demand imbalance now that crude oil releases from the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve have trickled out. Commercial inventories posted a hefty decline of 8.6 million bpd amid hurricane-induced production shut-ins in the week ended Oct. 9. Despite offshore operations having largely been restored, analysts still expect inventories to have shrunk further during the last week. The American Petroleum Institute is set to release inventory estimates later Tuesday, followed by U.S. Energy Information Administration data scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 21.
Why Is the WTI Oil Price Rising More than Brent Intraday? | Rigzone - Why is the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rising more than Brent today? This was the question Rigzone posed to several analysts, including Artem Bakushev, Head of Risk at Monaxa, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, and Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group. In response, Bakushev highlighted to Rigzone that WTI is “outrunning Brent today in a slightly awkward sprint … even as both sit near multi-month highs”. “The November WTI contract is rolling off today, so some of the punchier moves are coming on thinner volume, but the broader message is clear enough: geopolitical risk is still doing the heavy lifting,” Bakushev told Rigzone. “Fresh Houthi claims and shipping nerves around Saudi facilities and the Strait of Hormuz are keeping a decent premium in the market, and traders seem more willing to pay up for the landlocked U.S. barrel right now than the seaborne international one,” he added. “It feels less like a clean fundamental breakout and more like the market still twitchy and unwilling to fade the latest flare-ups,” he continued. Hogan told Rigzone that the spread between WTI and Brent has been compressing for a week and continues again today. “West Texas Intermediate is rising more than Brent largely due to a combination of strong domestic inventory draws, contract expiries/positioning, and the shifting spread dynamics related to Middle East shipping and tanker/freight premiums,” he said. “Just two weeks ago the spread between WTI and Brent had blown out to over $12 but has recently shrunk to under $5,” Hogan highlighted in his response to Rigzone. Flynn told Rigzone that part of the surge in WTI today is due to the November WTI contract expiration. “There seems to be a bit of a surge … signaling a tight market that was made tighter because of last week’s hurricane,” Flynn added. Flynn went on to outline that “the pause on Russian oil sanctions” is also a “factor” for the oil market to consider, noting that “overall strength is because oil infrastructure is the main target of Russia and Ukraine, adding to the upside risk”. At the time of writing, the WTI oil price is trading at $109.08 per barrel, which marks a 5.23 percent increase from Monday’s close, while the Brent price is trading at $111.29 per barrel, which marks a 1.59 percent rise from yesterday’s close. WTI’s highest close so far in 2026 was seen on April 7, at $112.95 per barrel. Brent’s highest close in 2026, so far, was seen on March 31, at $118.35 per barrel. In a report sent to Rigzone on Friday by the Saxo Bank team, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at the company, noted that crude oil prices remained “elevated”, with Brent “trading around $105 per barrel and WTI outperforming during the week”. “The Middle East conflict continues to dominate supply conditions, even as crude shipments recover towards pre-war levels,” Hansen pointed out in that report. “However, recovering exports should not be mistaken for normalization. Attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with exceptionally high freight and insurance costs, continue to disrupt the economics of moving crude and refined products,” he added. In this report, Hansen warned that a growing concern is the pressure on refinery profitability. “According to the International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report, elevated crude acquisition and freight costs have severely undermined refining margins in Europe and Asia, despite historically high diesel and other middle-distillate prices,” Hansen said. “This creates an apparent contradiction: diesel remains exceptionally expensive, yet producing it is becoming increasingly difficult to do profitably,” he added. “Refiners cannot simply convert every barrel of crude into diesel. Alongside diesel and jet fuel, they produce gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, whose margins have deteriorated sharply,” he continued. “Gasoline cracks have turned negative in some markets, while other fuels trade at discounts to crude,” he noted. Hansen went on to state that continued margin deterioration could force some refiners to reduce throughput, “deepening the shortage of middle distillates and adding further upward pressure on diesel prices”.
Oil Market Reverses Lower After Surging Above $110 - - The oil market ended the session lower following a volatile session that saw the expiring November WTI contract trading to a high not seen since April. The market weighed the continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market traded mostly sideways in the overnight session before it rallied higher in early morning trading. The market extended its gains to over $6.80 as it posted a high of $110.48. The market remained well supported after the Houthis on Monday said they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, such as an Aramco site in Yanbu. However, the crude market erased all of its gains as it sold off to a low of $101.04 by mid-morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract went off the board down $1.87 at $101.79, while the December WTI contract settled down 72 cents at $97.82 and the December Brent contract settled down 76 cents at $108.79. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 49 points at $4.9250 and the RB market settling down 7.42 cents at $3.1172. According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.7 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. U.S. Energy Department Under Secretary, Kyle Haustveit, said diesel prices are higher than anyone wants right now and added that the U.S. is working with refiners to seek ways to produce more. International Energy Agency Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said the IEA will consider a further release from members’ emergency oil reserves, if needed. He said the timeline for the release of 20 million barrels of diesel from IEA members’ emergency reserves depends on individual countries and the oil market situation. Last week, the IEA decided to accelerate the release of oil remaining from a record emergency reserves release pledged in March, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible to increase supply and lower prices. Senior officials said Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the U.S. to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war. Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider said Tehran was convinced the U.S. president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight month old war. The Revolutionary Guards’ Navy said two tankers were set ablaze and brought to a halt south of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting Iranian mines while violating Iranian regulations. The statement also said a U.S. drone was downed by Iran on Monday night.
Brent falls as Iran's president discusses mediation with Pakistani army chief (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down after touching a five-month high on Tuesday as traders weighed a meeting between the Iranian president and Pakistan's army chief, a key US-Iran mediator, against continued Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of vessel attacks in the Gulf. Brent crude futures settled down 76 cents, or 0.69%, at $108.79. Earlier in the session, the front-month contract reached $111.99, a five-month high. The November contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude, which expired on Tuesday, settled down $1.87, or 1.8%, at $101.79. That was down from the session high of $110.48, the highest since April for a nearby contract. The more active December contract settled down 72 cents at $97.82 a barrel. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed mediation efforts and regional developments during a meeting with Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran's Nournews reported on Tuesday. Pakistan's mediation efforts resulted in an interim peace agreement signed in June. But that deal quickly faltered amid new fighting between Iran and the US weeks later. Advertisement · Scroll to continue The talks in Tehran are against the backdrop of continued attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, who said on Monday they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, such as an Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Abha airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the Houthi claims and Reuters could not independently verify them. "Oil prices remain well-supported... This suggests the market is pricing in a significant risk premium, given the situation's volatility," ING analysts said in a note on Tuesday. At least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked over two weeks, which keeps the risk premium intact, shiptracker Kpler said in a note on Monday. Also on Monday, a Houthi attack on a training camp for government security forces in Yemen's Shabwa province killed 58 people and injured more than 200. The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard The renewed attacks heightened fears about regional stability and underscored continuing risks to energy supply from the region, keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement he is "committed to completing the elimination of the Iranian regime," and spoke with US President Donald Trump about it on Sunday. Russian diesel cargoes are returning to their traditional destinations after the US suspended sanctions and secured the lifting of an export ban, with at least two tankers signaling trips to Turkey and Brazil in recent days, according to shipping data from Kpler and LSEG. The US is working with domestic refiners to squeeze more crude through its refining complex, US Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit said on Tuesday at the Drake Forum in Titusville, Pennsylvania, a sentiment echoed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright later on Tuesday in Houston. The US is also pushing shuttered domestic refineries to reopen, Wright added. US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week along with product inventories, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell by about 800,000 barrels in the week ended October 16.
Oil prices jump $2 as Iran knocks hopes of diplomatic progress (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped by more than $2 on Wednesday after Iran said there was little reason to expect diplomatic progress with the US, leaving the Brent benchmark hovering near five-month highs, with further market support from falling US crude and product inventories. Brent crude futures gained $2.06, or 1.9%, to $110.85 a barrel by 1048 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $2.13, or 2.2%, at $99.95. In the previous session, Brent hit its highest in five months while WTI touched a six-month peak before prices fell back on discussions on mediation efforts in a meeting between Iran's president and Pakistan's army chief in Tehran. On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told the Financial Times that Iran was fully prepared to defend itself and President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media the US could not expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran. "Neither of the two geopolitical conflicts underpinning the market's bullish sentiment has shown any signs of de-escalation," PVM analysts said, referring to the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars. At least 18 vessel attacks were recorded over the past two weeks, Kpler data showed, while LSEG analysts warned that Iran was targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reaching into the Gulf of Oman and jeopardising Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers supporting regional loadings. Iran-aligned Houthis on Monday claimed responsibility for attacks on a Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and Saudi Arabia's Riyadh and Abha airports. In the US, two Energy Department officials said on Tuesday that they were working with refiners around the world to boost fuel output. US crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended October 16, with gasoline and distillate inventories also down, said market sources citing API data.
Oil Slips as Traders Weigh New Emergency Stock Releases (DTN) -- Oil futures were mixed in a choppy morning session Wednesday amid uncertainty over rumored mediation efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war. An industry report showed commercial crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. posting another large decline was offset by expectations of more releases from strategic reserves. By 9:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.62 to trade near $108.17 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery fell $0.48 to $97.34 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slipped $0.0751 to $4.8499 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures steadied, up $0.0021 to $3.1193 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, down 0.02 points to 101.505 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil prices soared to five-month highs Tuesday before reversing course after debunked reports of an imminent diplomatic settlement of the nearly eight-month-old conflict that has led to the largest oil supply disruption in history and globally plummeting inventories. Tehran denied these rumors, but confirmed that indirect negotiations via third party mediators were ongoing. Futures relinquished some of their earlier gains this morning after Reuters reported that the U.S. Department of Energy was set to release 315,000 bbl of heating oil from emergency reserves in order to tame middle distillate prices. The release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, which holds about one million bbl of ultra-low sulfur diesel, will come in the form of loans and is expected to be completed by Nov. 13. Commercial distillate fuel oil stocks in the Northeast have barely rebounded since hitting an all-time low at the end of August, and are currently at their seasonally lowest on record, trailing year-ago levels and the five-year seasonal average by 41% and 45%, respectively, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. have until recently not experienced the precipitous decline recorded in refined fuel stockpiles, largely due to the release of nearly 133 million bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Two weeks ago, crude stocks posted a hefty decline that came on the back of hurricane-induced production shut-ins but also coincided with the SPR supply stream drying up. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported across-the-board draws to commercial inventories last week, including a nearly 5 million bbl decline in crude oil stocks despite largely restored offshore production. Official government data from the EIA is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release Wednesday.
WTI Flat After Another Crude Draw, Distillates Stocks At Seasonal Record Lows - Oil prices are flat this morning, reversing earlier gains that pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel - 5 month highs (and WTI back above $101), as traders weighed a recovery in Middle East oil exports against persistent threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks targeting Saudi Arabia.. Specifically, shipping risks remained elevated as Iran's IRGC said Tuesday that two oil tankers caught fire after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. “High exports do not necessarily mean lower risks,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “Shipping remains exposed to attacks, while exceptionally high freight rates and insurance premiums make transporting oil expensive.” Regional tensions also persisted. The Saudi-led coalition said Wednesday that it intercepted drones launched toward the kingdom, including one targeting the Eastern Province, a major oil-producing region. Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are reportedly continuing. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that contacts, visits and exchanges of messages between Washington and Tehran remained ongoing, amid efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the regional escalation. With hurricane shut-in effects fading, API reported inventory draws across the board (except a small build at Cushing). API
- Crude -4.9mm
- Cushing +936k
- Gasoline -2.0mm
- Distillates -2.6mm
DOE:
- Crude -3.06mm (-340k exp)
- Cushing +987k
- Gasoline -2.95mm
- Distillates +1.68mm
Official US crude stocks drewdown for the 3rd straight week (more than expected but less than API). Cushing stocks rose for the 5th straight week while Gasoline inventories saw their biggest drawdown since May... With IEA urging the world to release more barrels from reserves, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw a small 300k barrel drain (after no change the prior week)... Despite the build this week, distillates stocks remain at record lows for this time of year... US Crude production fell once again (storm shut-ins)... WTI was trading around $98 ahead of the official data and didn't move much on the print... And much to Trump's chagrin, pump prices have never been higher at this time of year... Finally, Bloomberg reports that there are signs that physical markets in some parts of the world are beginning to cool. As flows through the Middle East rise, one key benchmark in the region has fallen to its weakest level in three months. The “Gulf crude oil market has been pressured” by the availability of multiple cargoes at relatively short notice, said June Goh, oil analyst at Sparta Commodities SA. At the same time, traders said high shipping costs mean American barrels aren’t traveling as far afield, pointing more supplies to Europe and pressuring the Dated Brent physical benchmark.
Oil Market Pulls Back as Russia-Ukraine Talks Offset Hormuz Risks - The crude market posted an inside trading day on Wednesday as the market weighed possible progress towards Russia-Ukraine talks against little hope of talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. The oil market was supported overnight by the continuing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least two more ships being struck. The market retraced some more of the previous day’s early losses as it traded to a high of $100.40 early Wednesday morning. The market later erased some of its gains after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreed to resume U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine as soon as next month. The market sold off to a low of $96.26. However, the market retraced some of its losses ahead of the close amid the continuing concerns over the conflict in the Middle East. The December WTI contract settled down 67 cents at $97.15 and the December Brent contract settled up 3 cents at $108.82. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory once again, with the heating oil market settling down 16.17 cents at $4.7633 and the RB market settling up 33 points at $3.1205. The Department of Energy said the Trump administration is offering to loan up to nearly a third of the 1 million barrel U.S. emergency heating oil reserve. The move came after senators from both political parties urged the administration to release heating oil from the reserve as prices for diesel reached records above $6.50 per gallon on disruptions across the Middle East caused by the Iran war. The department will loan up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil from Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Deliveries are set to be completed by November 13th. A source at the Energy Department said the administration will evaluate whether further releases from the reserve are necessary. Market watchers and analysts said President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets is unlikely to meaningfully lower diesel prices, noting that the promised volumes are too small to ease a global supply squeeze. Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, said it would take an additional 400,000 barrels per day of diesel supply to materially ease prices in the current market. However, the initial shipment of roughly 2.2 million barrels would amount to only about 73,000 bpd if distributed over a month. She said that volume on its own would probably not significantly affect global diesel prices. Caspian Conran, lead economist at consulting firm Baringa, estimated that the market would require an additional 850,000 bpd of supply to produce an immediate softening in prices. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 479,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 95,000 bpd.
Oil prices increase as 7 tankers reported damaged in Hormuz - — Sharp drops for stocks in the AI industry are dragging down markets worldwide on Oct. 22, while oil prices hit their highest levels since May following a report by Iran's state television that seven oil tankers caught fire and were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. If the report is verified, it would be the largest number of vessels damaged in the waterway in a single day since the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28.. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to $111.19 after touching its highest level in five months. It’s at the high end of the $97 to $112 range it’s been yo-yoing through in October on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will allow the global energy industry to return to normal. The S&P 500 sank 0.8% following even sharper losses in Asia, whose markets are full of AI and other technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 142 points, or 0.3%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.3% lower. AI stocks have been shaky on worries that their boom may be under threat because of how expensive it has become to borrow money to build data centers and buy more AI chips. Concerns also remain high that prices simply shot too high for AI-related stocks in their yearslong frenzy, even though companies in the industry continue to report growth. Lam Research, whose equipment and services help make semiconductors, reported gains in both profit and revenue for the summer that were slightly stronger than analysts expected, for example. Usually, that helps boost a stock’s price, but Lam Research’s tumbled 10.1% for one of the market's sharpest losses. The global tide against AI stocks knocked Nvidia down 1.8%. Because it’s the largest stock on Wall Street by total value, the chip giant was the heaviest single weight on the S&P 500. Also weighing on global stock markets was the jump in oil prices. In Europe, France’s CAC 40 stock index fell to one of the continent’s sharpest losses with a drop of 1% It has fewer tech stocks than Asian or U.S. indexes, but it was hurt by another jump in yields for French government bonds. Yields have been generally climbing there because of worries about the government’s big debt load and strained budget. Violent protests across France have raised pressure on the government to increase spending, which could add further to its debt. Worries about big debt affect almost every developed economy in the world, including the United States. Such concerns have pushed yields in the U.S. bond market to their highest levels in decades, along with high inflation, signals of a still-strong U.S. economy and other factors.
Oil Prices Surge on Houthi Attacks, Escalation Signs (DTN) -- Brent futures jumped to their highest since May Thursday morning following a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. A U.S. State Department order to evacuate diplomats and their families from the country, meanwhile, stoked concerns of the conflict escalating further. By 8:55 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $3.21 to trade near $112.03 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $2.46 to $99.61 bbl, after touching a high of $100.09 bbl earlier in the session. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery jumped $0.1511 to $4.9144 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures advanced $0.0828 to $3.2033 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index remained unchanged at 101.6 points against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil fields, government buildings and an airport were among the latest targets struck by the Tehran-allied group. Saudi Aramco said that there was no impact to oil production operations, but the successful attacks still raised supply concerns as they highlighted the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the region, and Saudi Arabia's seemingly limited means to protect vital assets. The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, ordered the evacuation of diplomatic staff and their families from several sites in Saudi Arabia. The move stoked fears of an imminent escalation in fighting and the possible return of U.S. military operations against the Houthis. Reports suggesting the U.S. is also planning to withdraw personnel from other countries in the region also contributed to a higher risk premium. Attacks on tankers in the region also continued. Iran's armed forces on Thursday claimed to have struck four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and said that another three vessels had collided with mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center on Wednesday reported that a tanker was struck in the Gulf of Oman. In the U.S., meanwhile, crude oil inventories last week declined by more than expected, Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday showed. Refining activity at a seasonal record high and a lull in offshore production contributed to the second consecutive larger-than-anticipated draw. Volumes held in commercial inventories dropping below year-ago levels for the first time since early August also coincided with the end of significant emergency stockpile releases.
Oil prices hit five-month high as Houthi attacks stoke Middle East supply fears (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 4% to a five-month high on Thursday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the key exporting region. Brent futures rose $4.35, or 4.0%, to settle at $113.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.32, or 2.4%, to settle at $99.47. That was the highest close for Brent since May 4 and kept the global benchmark in technically overbought territory for the third time in a week. "The complex is rebounding on another strong injection of risk premium related to an additional Houthi attack on Saudi infrastructure amid talk of a combined US/Israeli strike on Iran after the mid-terms," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Saudi Aramco (2223.SE), opens new tab told staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain, Reuters reported, as fighting between the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen's Houthis intensified. Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognized government have raged since the Iran-aligned group pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb, a shipping chokepoint at the Red Sea's mouth. "Reports of Middle East crude oil exports exceeding pre-conflict levels are more than countered by attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and on its oil infrastructure," PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga said. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that Middle East crude oil exports were around 17 million barrels per day last week. Crude exports from the region averaged about 18 million bpd in the 12 months before the start of the Iran war, according to Kpler. In the US, refiner Valero Energy kicked off earnings season for US refiners on Thursday by posting its highest-ever quarterly profit, beating Wall Street expectations, as fuel supply disruptions due to wars in Iran and Ukraine boosted margins during the third quarter. Russia pounded Kyiv with ballistic missiles and Ukraine sent hundreds of drones towards Moscow overnight as the two sides kept up a barrage despite the latest US push to end the war. But consumer staples and financial stocks declined. Russia said on Wednesday it was ready to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine next month, after President Vladimir Putin hosted US envoy Steve Witkoff for talks in St Petersburg. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he hoped negotiations, which would be the first since February, would take place early in November. Russia was the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, US energy data showed. Sanctions designed to keep Russian energy out of global markets after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine have helped support oil prices. Any deal to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022, could allow Russia to export more. Senior Russian political and energy officials urged the European Union on Thursday to reconsider its plans to ban imports of Russian LNG, arguing the bloc's low storage levels had put Europe in a precarious position. The European Parliament, meanwhile, approved a three-year delay to EU methane emissions rules for oil and gas imports, after pressure from governments including France and the US. In Libya, an oil pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port has been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields, the head of the National Oil Corporation told Reuters on Thursday.
Oil Extends Rise as Supply Risks Grow, Peace Prospects Dim - Oil prices extended their advance Friday morning on growing risks to Middle Eastern oil supply amid a recent escalation in fighting in the region. Brent futures were trading at their highest since early May and were on track for the third consecutive weekly increase. By 9:10 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $1.90 to trade near $115.07 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $1.94 to $101.41 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB for November delivery advanced $0.0307 to $3.2072 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures bucked the trend, retreating $0.0234 to $4.9087 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index steadied, up 0.04 points to 101.48 against a basket of foreign currencies. Driving the rally was less acute physical supply disruption but rather mounting risks that the current recovery in crude flows from the region is standing on shaky ground. While this week's Houthi attacks on key Saudi Arabian infrastructure, including an oil field and the vital Red Sea port of Yanbu, failed to meaningfully hamper output, the deadly strikes highlighted the kingdom's seemingly limited means to protect core assets. Adding to the risk premium were signs the U.S. may be preparing for a surge in fighting. The U.S. State Department this week issued an evacuation order for personnel from Saudi Arabia, and reports suggested that the administration was preparing to extend this order to other countries in the region. In addition, the New York Times on Wednesday reported that Israel and the U.S. were drafting plans for renewed military strikes on Iran following the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Reciprocal strikes on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine war also continued this week. Russia has since the summer lost a significant portion of refining capacity to Ukrainian drone attacks, leading to regional fuel shortages and refined product export bans. Reports this week suggested that plant operators in Russia were holding off some repair work for as long as Ukrainian strikes continued unhindered, increasing the likelihood the global diesel crunch may extend far into 2027. Despite domestic supply constraints, the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the U.S. since the White House waived sanctions on the country and the Kremlin in return lifted its diesel export ban departed Friday, according to media reports based on ship tracking data, and is expected to arrive in the U.S. in two weeks.
Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, where UAE authorities also reported an oil spill. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel, up $3.55 or 3.14%, their highest since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $103.27 a barrel, up $3.80 or 3.8%. Brent finished the week up 6% and WTI ended 2.3% higher. "Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels carried out a series of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist for LPL Financial. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain, Reuters reported. Fighting intensified between Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen-based Houthis. An oil spill from a tanker was detected off the UAE coast of Umm Al Quwain, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said. It did not say what caused the spill and authorities have not identified the tanker involved. Shipping sources said on October 9 that the Gem No. 2 supertanker was struck by an unidentified projectile 13 nautical miles (24 km) west of Al Jazeera in the UAE. "The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers that we've seen increase over the last week," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute." Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the Iran-aligned Houthis pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month, a shipping chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. Keep Watching President Donald Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly, but said perhaps Washington should allow the conflict to gradually wind down. The US Department of Energy said it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66's Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana. The SPR is already at the lowest level since 1982 after President Donald Trump tapped it as the US war on Iran disrupted supply lines. Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, also tapped the SPR following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Germany's national oil stockpiling agency EBV circulated a tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude oil volumes from strategic reserves. This marks Germany's first oil releases from strategic reserves since G7 countries, under pressure from Trump, agreed to do so at the start of October. Advertisement · Scroll to continue On Thursday, the head of Libya's National Oil Corp told Reuters that an oil pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields. Ship tracking data showed the first Russian diesel bound for the US since Moscow and Washington reached an export agreement was aboard a tanker heading for New York. Trump announced the deal this month as part of efforts to bring down soaring diesel prices ahead of US midterm elections on November 3. US energy firms this week kept the total rig count unchanged for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, held steady at 603 during the week ended October 23.
Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than $3 higher on Friday, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, where UAE authorities also reported an oil spill. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel, up $3.55 or 3.14%, their highest since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $103.27 a barrel, up $3.80 or 3.8%. Brent finished the week up 6% and WTI ended 2.3% higher. "Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels carried out a series of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist for LPL Financial. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain, Reuters reported. Fighting intensified between Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen-based Houthis. An oil spill from a tanker was detected off the UAE coast of Umm Al Quwain, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said. It did not say what caused the spill and authorities have not identified the tanker involved. Shipping sources said on October 9 that the Gem No. 2 supertanker was struck by an unidentified projectile 13 nautical miles (24 km) west of Al Jazeera in the UAE. "The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers that we've seen increase over the last week," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute." Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the Iran-aligned Houthis pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month, a shipping chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. President Donald Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly, but said perhaps Washington should allow the conflict to gradually wind down. The US Department of Energy said it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66's Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana. The SPR is already at the lowest level since 1982 after President Donald Trump tapped it as the US war on Iran disrupted supply lines. Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, also tapped the SPR following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Germany's national oil stockpiling agency EBV circulated a tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude oil volumes from strategic reserves. This marks Germany's first oil releases from strategic reserves since G7 countries, under pressure from Trump, agreed to do so at the start of October. On Thursday, the head of Libya's National Oil Corp told Reuters that an oil pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields. Ship tracking data showed the first Russian diesel bound for the US since Moscow and Washington reached an export agreement was aboard a tanker heading for New York. Trump announced the deal this month as part of efforts to bring down soaring diesel prices ahead of US midterm elections on November 3. US energy firms this week kept the total rig count unchanged for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, held steady at 603 during the week ended October 23.
Qalibaf meets Ayatollah Khamenei to discuss US-Israeli economic, military war against Iran - Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has met with the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, to discuss the latest developments in the country. Ayatollah Khamenei and Qalibaf discussed the latest developments in the military, economic, and cognitive warfare waged by the US and Israel against Iran. During the meeting, the Leader called for strengthening the country’s components of power and highlighted the effective role of members of parliament in preserving and consolidating social cohesion and national unity. He also praised the continued participation of Iranians in public gatherings in support of the Islamic Republic and the armed forces, describing it as “deterrent”. Ayatollah Khamenei called on the government and parliament to work together to address people’s economic issues, and to advance matters related to the country’s strategic partners. For his part, Qalibaf briefed the Leader on measures lawmakers have taken since the start of the latest US-Israeli war late in February, as well as the parliament’s current and future plans for addressing the country’s issues and challenges. The US and Israel launched the aggression against Iran on February 28, some eight months after carrying out unprovoked attacks on the country. Iran swiftly retaliated by launching barrages of missiles and drones at the Israeli-occupied territories, as well as US bases and interests across the region. Washington has signaled it is preparing to restart large-scale military aggression against Iran, with reports indicating the Pentagon has instructed Central Command to be ready for potential strikes. Iran has warned that any new attack will trigger a far more severe response than previous rounds. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said recently that Iranian armed forces have prepared a “more devastating plan” that will not follow the “rules they are familiar with.”
2 Tankers Set Ablaze, Halted in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC - (Tasnim) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said two non-compliant oil tankers were set ablaze and brought to a halt after hitting mines laid by the force’s naval unit in an unauthorized passage south of the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the IRGC said the incident occurred as its naval and aerospace forces continue monitoring regional developments and enforcing Iran’s control and management of the strategic waterway. The statement said the IRGC Navy had warned that passage through the mined route is illegal and would result in violators’ assets being set ablaze. It added that if the US “mischief” continues, oil companies will have to pay a heavier price. The IRGC also said its air defense forces have identified and destroyed the 54th MQ-9 drone belonging to the US military the previous night while monitoring the airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. The statement also praised the Iranian people for their steadfastness, saying their continued presence in the streets for more than 230 nights has inspired oppressed nations around the world.
Tanker involved in incident with military forces off Oman: UKMTO- A tanker was involved in an incident with military forces off the coast of Oman, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said Tuesday. It said the incident occurred Monday at 1000 GMT, approximately 121 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman. “Reports indicate that the tanker was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region,” UKMTO said. The agency said authorities were aware of the incident and investigations remained ongoing. It advised vessels operating in the area to monitor the latest maritime security information and remain alert to the evolving security situation. UKMTO did not provide details about the nature of the interaction or any possible casualties or damage. The incident comes amid heightened maritime tensions following the US-Iran military confrontation and continuing security concerns affecting shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran says supertanker carrying over 2 million barrels of oil hit mine near Hormuz - A supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil exploded and caught fire after striking a naval mine south of the Strait of Hormuz, the Navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Tuesday. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the navy said the vessel was committing violations and that it had switched off all its radar and navigation systems. The tanker ignored warnings from the IRGC Navy and was trying to leave the strait through an “unauthorized southern route” when it struck the mine, according to the statement. The navy did not identify the vessel or provide details about its flag, crew, possible casualties, or the extent of the damage. “Vessel owners and crews in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman are responsible for transiting unauthorized routes,” it said. “Any movement that disregards the security of this strait will be dealt with decisively,” it added.
Tanker struck by unknown projectile off Oman: UK maritime agency - A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman early Wednesday, sparking a fire that was later extinguished, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said. The incident occurred at 0145GMT, approximately 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, according to a UKMTO warning issued Wednesday. Local authorities reported that the projectile struck the tanker and caused a fire, which has since been extinguished. The vessel is now at anchor, the agency said. All crew members were reported safe, with no environmental impact reported at the time of the warning, it added. The UKMTO advised vessels transiting the area to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity to the agency as authorities investigate the incident. The incident comes amid heightened maritime tensions following the US-Iran military confrontation and continuing security concerns affecting shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran Escalates Threat to Target Undersea Cables in Hormuz Strait: ‘All of the World’s Internet and Commercial Data Depend on Them’ Cryptocurrency punters remain skeptical that Iran will sabotage undersea cables to disrupt critical digital infrastructure, despite a renewed threat from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The betting crowd on Polygon based Polymarket priced in a 4% chance that Iran or any of its proxy groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, physically damage undersea cable infrastructure by month-end. The probability of the attack occurring by year's end was 12%. The odds shift as IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "all of the world's internet and commercial data depend on them," reported Al Jazeera. Spokesman for Iran's IRGC, Brigadier-General Hossein Mohebi, has warned the US against renewed attacks and threatened to target internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/V8uVRI4Qek pic.twitter.com/euP7RMEF0b — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 19, 2026 Mohebi's comments came after Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that a return to intense fighting could endanger critical technology infrastructure, including cables, data centers, and AI facilities.The threats followed drone attacks in early March that damaged Amazon Web Services infrastructure in the UAE and Bahrain, causing physical damage, power disruptions and cloud service outages.More than 90% of data capacity between Europe and Asia passes through subsea fiber-optic cables running beneath the Red Sea, according to telecom data analytics firm TeleGeography. Iran-backed Houthis control key coastal areas and shipping lanes at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, giving Tehran another pressure point.
6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways - Thousands of sailors remain stranded near the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating attacks on commercial ships, the United Nations' top maritime official warned Sunday after Iran accused the U.S. military of using an international emergency radio channel to threaten civilian crews. The warning also came amid reports that 24 ships had been attacked on the waterway over roughly two weeks, underscoring growing concerns about maritime safety in the region, according to Financial Times. "The situation continues to be severe and critical when it comes to international shipping," International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told Fox News Digital. "There is a double blockade and too many vessels have been attacked, particularly in recent days. "Seafarers have continued to perish in these attacks and around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped since the beginning of the conflict," he warned, adding that his message was not to transit the Strait of Hormuz or put seafarers at risk "until we have guarantees." Dominguez's warning followed an Oct. 9 letter to the IMO in which Iran alleged that the U.S. military used VHF Channel 16, an internationally designated maritime distress and safety channel, to intimidate Iranian crews in the Persian Gulf. "VHF Channel 16 has been repeatedly occupied for prolonged periods by the United States military forces operating in the Persian Gulf," the letter stated. "During such transmissions, Iranian seafarers have been addressed in Persian with threatening, abusive and provocative language and in certain instances urged to abandon their vessels." In a statement to Fox News Digital, U.S. Central Command defended its enforcement of the naval blockade of Iranian ports. "The U.S. naval blockade has been in place for months and is professionally communicated to all international mariners," CENTCOM said. "Vessels that refuse to comply with blockade enforcement receive multiple warnings, with ample opportunity to comply. "American forces remain highly vigilant, focused and professional while fully enforcing the naval blockade against Iran." Iran's complaint was submitted by Seyed Ali Mousavi and its ambassador to the IMO and circulated to member states on Oct. 9, according to a copy reviewed by Fox News Digital. Tehran also accused American forces of turning the maritime safety channel into an "instrument of military intimidation and psychological pressure against civilian crews." The letter cited commercial vessels, shipping companies and maritime operators but provided no recordings, transcripts or specific details of the alleged exchanges. Fox News Digital could not independently verify the accusations. "Seafarers are not trained for combat, and they are not guilty of any conflicts that are happening around the world," Dominguez said. "And we have seen this in several parts of the world where Channel 16, that should not be used for this kind of communication, starts receiving messages that may be perceived as actually threatening or that are outside the remit of why it was created." Iran also asked the IMO to raise its allegations with member states and relevant international organizations, potentially including the International Telecommunication Union. Dominguez said the IMO could review its regulations and procedures to determine whether stronger safeguards are needed, though he did not announce a formal investigation. "Our role here at IMO is that when those situations take place, we will then look into any technical measures or any operational aspects that we may need to clarify further within our regulatory framework," he said, stressing that member states have equal rights to raise concerns, regardless of the conflict. "We have a responsibility, and I have a duty as well, to circulate letters and notes that the countries actually put forward when they're also being affected."
Iran's IRGC Navy Says Seven Oil Tankers Struck in the Strait of Hormuz - - Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said on Thursday that its forces struck four oil tankers that were transferring oil in the Strait of Hormuz and that another three ships struck mines as oil prices reached an 11-month high. The IRGC Navy warned that US bases would be targeted in the region if the US continues to encourage vessels to go through the strait. “The aggressor US military must know that, if this trend continues, the scope of confrontation will extend to the aggressor bases in the region. This is a serious warning,” the statement said.So far, the attacks haven’t been confirmed by other sources, but the UK Maritime Trade Operations recently said that it’s struggling to report on all the incidents in or near the Strait of Hormuz because the “majority” of attacked vessels are refusing to report to the organization. An oil tanker on fire near the Strait of Hormuz (PressTV) For his part, President Trump is accusing Iran of making up attacks on ships. “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election. They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else, because more Oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the Conflict,” he wrote on Truth Social. Oil has continued to flow through the strait despite Iran dramatically increasing its attacks in recent weeks, since captains are reportedly being offered $100,000 a month to operate through the strait, but the shipments haven’t brought down the price of oil. Brent crude hit $112 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since May 18.The IRGC statement came as the US and Israel appear poised to launch another major attack on Iran either before the upcoming US and Israeli elections or after.
Iran War Updates: Trump accuses Iran of making up fake strikes on ships to drive up oil prices --President Trump accused Iran of making up the fact that ships in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting mines or being struck by missiles or drones, saying it was a bid to drive up oil prices before the midterms. The price of Brent crude oil surged about 4% on Thursday to $113 per barrel as Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had attacked four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz for using a route that Tehran rejects. The IRGC said three other ships using that route hit sea mines and were forced to halt. The U.S. military has quietly reduced its footprint at posts in the Middle East due to ongoing threats and attacks by Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen, sources told CBS News on Wednesday. The latest attack, on King Fahd International Airport in the eastern Saudi city of Dammam, has killed at least two people and injured eight more. The U.S. Central Command posted a celebration Thursday of 100 days of its reinstated blockade on Iranian ships entering or exiting ports through the Strait of Hormuz.The blockade has prevented $25 billion in crude oil exports by Iran, according to CENTCOM.The blockade was reinstated on July 14 after the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding fell apart over the wording of one of the clauses. Iran believed it would determine navigation through the strait and withhold charging fees for at least 60 days. The U.S. said the wording in the memorandum did not allow for Iran to determine transit.Iran began targeting ships in the strait again and the U.S. reinstituted its blockade that initially ran from April 13 to June 18. The initial blockade redirected at least 140 ships attempting to transit the strait. The new one had redirected 138 ships as of the last U.S. update on Oct. 17."There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed," the post added.
Iran-Russia relations closer than at any point in history: Araghchi - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran and Moscow are enjoying the closest relations in their history, following talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran on regional and global developments and the expansion of economic and nuclear cooperation. In a post on X on Tuesday, Araghchi said the two officials held “timely talks” covering regional and global developments. “We covered everything from Europe to West Asia, including Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine and Yemen. Also focused on expansion of economic and nuclear cooperation,” he said. “Never in our history have Iran and Russia worked as closely as now,” Araghchi added. On Monday, Araghchi and Lavrov held talks and attended a joint press conference. During the news briefing, Araghchi highlighted the “close” cooperation and consultations between Tehran and Moscow, saying both sides believe regional issues cannot be resolved militarily and should instead be addressed through diplomatic and political channels. Araghchi also said that cooperation between Iran and Russia will play a proper role in establishing stability in the region. Heading a diplomatic delegation, the Russian foreign minister arrived in Tehran on Monday to meet top Iranian officials on his first visit since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran almost eight months ago.
Over 400 Activists Urge UN Intervention to Stop Execution of Warisheh Moradi -The “Free Warisheh Moradi Campaign” reported that 56 organizations and 383 political, civil, and human rights activists have signed a petition urging the United Nations to take immediate action to prevent the execution of political prisoner Warisheh Moradi. The letter was addressed to the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran and the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran. Signatories highlighted that since Warisheh Moradi’s arrest in the summer of 2023, troubling reports of “torture” and “ill-treatment” during her detention have emerged. They also emphasized the fundamentally unfair nature of her judicial proceedings. The petition calls on the UN Fact-Finding Mission and the Special Rapporteur to utilize all available mechanisms within their mandates, including urgent appeals to the Iranian government, to demand that Islamic Republic authorities immediately stay her execution and refrain from taking any steps toward its implementation. They further urged UN officials to demand official guarantees from the regime that Moradi’s death sentence will not be carried out. Among other demands, the signatories requested that experts “raise Warisheh Moradi’s case publicly and in discussions with governments and international bodies in a position to help prevent her execution.” In the publicly released letter, the signatories noted that in similar cases, families and defense lawyers often receive minimal or no prior notice before executions are carried out, prompting their urgent call for immediate intervention by UN experts. Warisheh Moradi, also known as Joana Sanandaj, was born in 1985 and is a Kurdish political, women’s rights, and environmental activist. She was arrested in August 2023 near Sanandaj and spent roughly five months under interrogation in Ward 209 of Evin Prison, which is managed by the Ministry of Intelligence, before being transferred to the women’s ward, where she has remained in detention ever since. In November 2024, Moradi was sentenced to death by Branch 15 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Salavati, on charges of “rebellion” (baghi). Branch 9 of the Supreme Court overturned the ruling in December 2025 due to investigative flaws and procedural violations, remanding the case to the Revolutionary Court for retrial. However, on October 14 of this year, Moradi’s defense counsel reported that the Revolutionary Court had reissued the death sentence against the female political prisoner.
Riyadh's iconic tower empties as Houthi attacks kill 13, push Egypt toward war -- One of the most recognizable towers on the Saudi skyline has become the latest symbol of a kingdom operating under duress. The management of Kingdom Centre — the 99-story skyscraper that has anchored Riyadh's silhouette since 2002 — issued an urgent directive Sunday ordering all office-based employees to shift to remote work, effective immediately and until further notice, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels continued striking the Saudi capital with missiles and drones. Building management delivered the order by email — obtained by Agence France-Presse — without specifying a reason, though the timing left little room for ambiguity. Riyadh has been gripped by a security climate not seen in years, with repeated strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, aviation hubs and the broader urban core. The directive carries weight far beyond its architectural symbolism. The tower houses a cluster of globally prominent tenants, among them the International Monetary Fund, financial services giant Merrill Lynch and management consultancy McKinsey & Company. The simultaneous suspension of in-office work for institutions of that stature signals just how gravely the threat environment is being assessed at the highest levels of the international business community. Management declared remote work "mandatory," with the arrangement set to remain in place until further notice. One notable exception: the shopping center at the tower's base continued welcoming visitors, suggesting the security posture targets concentrated office populations rather than general public access — a distinction that has drawn skepticism from observers who question the internal logic of that carve-out.The Kingdom Centre directive did not emerge in a vacuum. It followed weeks of escalating Houthi aggression that turned Saudi civilian aviation into a recurring target. Houthi forces intensified their campaign against Saudi airports in early October, striking Riyadh, Abha, Jazan and Najran, while also targeting King Fahd International Airport in Dammam — though those strikes produced no reported casualties.The deadliest blow came on October 10, when a missile hit a passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing at least 13 people and wounding 309 others, some of them critically. Saudi civil aviation authorities initially confirmed 12 deaths; the Indian Embassy in Riyadh subsequently announced that one of its nationals hospitalized from the attack had died of his wounds, raising the confirmed toll. The Saudi-led military coalition called the attack "a full-fledged war crime according to the Customary International Humanitarian Law," with spokesman Turki al-Maliki vowing a decisive response.Coalition data released October 15 showed that King Khalid International Airport had been hit in 20 separate Houthi attacks since the beginning of October, with 17 people killed and 333 injured at that airport between October 7 and 11. Adding the two fatalities at Abha's airport — where a Moroccan and an Algerian national were killed and 28 others wounded on October 7 — the combined toll across all targeted Saudi airfields reached 19 dead and 364 injured as of that date. The airport campaign has rippled well into the fabric of ordinary life in Riyadh. Schools in the capital extended remote-learning measures amid continued security threats, and King Khalid International Airport has remained closed since the October 10 strike. The day after that attack, the Houthis issued a warning to airlines, travelers and airport workers to stay away from Saudi airports entirely. The coalition, meanwhile, has pledged decisive retaliation and reports continued airstrikes against Houthi launch sites in Yemen. Two ballistic missiles fired toward the kingdom's southern region were intercepted, underscoring how wide the threat geography has grown — stretching from border zones to the heart of the capital itself. As conditions in Saudi Arabia deteriorate, regional powers are recalibrating their posture. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for an emergency session of the House of Representatives to authorize potential defensive military intervention in Saudi Arabia should Riyadh formally request it — a move that could draw one of the Arab world's most capable armed forces into the conflict. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, speaking to Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, stated that Egypt would respond to any Saudi request "without any reservation." Abdelatty also confirmed that Cairo is actively weighing membership in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement — the security pact currently uniting Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. In a separate exchange, Abdelatty spoke by phone with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, reiterating Egypt's condemnation of the attacks and affirming full support for the kingdom's security and stability. The Kingdom Centre episode crystallizes the bind Saudi Arabia now finds itself in. Coalition spokesman al-Maliki noted that Houthi attacks on the kingdom have intensified since early October, following an escalation campaign the group began in July — a trajectory showing no sign of reversal. What was once a conflict largely confined to Yemen's southern battlefields has been extended, with methodical precision, to the towers, terminals and schoolrooms of Riyadh itself. For international firms operating across the kingdom, the mandatory work-from-home order at Kingdom Centre may prove an early indicator of broader operational recalibrations ahead. The question is no longer whether Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia will continue, but how long the kingdom's economy — and the global institutions embedded in its most iconic structures — can absorb the strain before more permanent adjustments become unavoidable.
Ansar Allah Strikes Military Training Camp in Yemen's Shabwah Governorate, Killing Over 50 - The Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces announced on Monday that its forces attacked the al-Alam camp in Yemen’s south-central Shabwa province, which it described as being run by “Saudi officers.” The local authority told Reuters that there were significant casualties, reporting that 53 people were killed and more than 200 were wounded. The report described al-Alam as a military training camp for the security forces of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.Local media reported that among the wounded were members of the Security Belt Forces, a militia affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council, which has historically been backed by the UAE, though Saudi Arabia ousted the UAE from Yemen late last year and injected cash into the country to pay the salaries of the fighters that Abu Dhabi had supported. Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, claimed that the attack caused Saudi casualties, which so far haven’t been confirmed, and it warned Yemenis against joining the Saudi-backed forces. “We warn those who have been deceived against responding to the Saudi enemy’s calls to send them to their deaths with tainted money, sacrificing them instead of their own soldiers and showing no regard for their lives,” Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree wrote on Telegram. Saree also announced a ballistic missile attack on Saudi-backed forces in the al-Saqiya and Ras al-Ara areas in the southwestern Lahj province, which has a coast on the Gulf of Aden, and claimed it resulted in “dozens of dead and wounded and the destruction of several vehicles.” Later, he issued another statement announcing a series of six attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on airports and oil infrastructure.He said the attacks on Saudi Arabia came “in retaliation for the brutal Saudi aggression targeting our country and people, which has launched more than two hundred airstrikes and missile attacks during the past 48 hours, targeting civilian infrastructure in the capital, Sana’a, and the liberal provinces, leaving dozens of martyrs and wounded, most of whom are women and children.”A Saudi airstrike hit a civilian home in Yemen’s Saada province on Sunday, killing at least 10 people, including seven children. The US is strongly supporting the Saudi air campaign despite the large number of civilian casualties and is providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.
UK to deploy fighter jets to defend Saudi cities from Houthi attacks- The U.K. said it would provide defensive military support, including fighter jets, to support Saudi Arabia as attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels escalate. The Houthis, a Yemeni militant group, have launched a series of strikes on Saudi targets in recent weeks. Airport attacks in the capital city of Riyadh led to multiple fatalities, flight cancellations and property damage, while facilities belonging to oil giant Saudi Aramco were targeted last week. “The continuing attacks from the Houthis on our ally Saudi Arabia are absolutely despicable. The targeting of the airport in Riyadh in particular shows the lengths the Houthis are going to escalate the situation in the region,” U.K. Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said in a statement on Tuesday. He added that Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets will fly defensive air missions to help protect Saudi airspace from drones and missiles. “This builds on the UK equipment and personnel we already have in the country to defend against Houthi air attacks,” Streeting said. The U.K. Ministry of Defence also said that the fighter jets would operate only in a defensive role and would not conduct offensive strikes against the Houthis. It said the Royal Air Force would also provide an Airbus A400M Atlas jet “to support the movement of defence materiel within Saudi Arabia,” while U.K. military advisers will also give support to Saudi staff officers. “Escalating violence in the Gulf can have a serious impact at home in the UK — driving up the cost of living, disrupting energy supplies and costs to British businesses. It is also causing devastation to the civilian population in Yemen,” the MoD said. “We unequivocally condemn the Houthi attacks on civilian targets like King Khalid International Airport and are clear that Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen have the right to defend themselves.” Yemen’s civil war has returned to full-scale fighting between the Houthis and the country’s internationally recognized government amid a wider regional escalation linked to the U.S.-Iran war. Al Jazeera reported Monday that at least 53 people were killed when the Houthis launched three ballistic missiles at a military camp in southern Yemen. CNBC was not able to independently verify the reports.
Yemen Announces Six Operations against Saudi Targets As Explosions Rock Riyadh - (Tasnim) – Yemen’s armed forces launched a ballistic missile toward Riyadh on Tuesday, according to the Saudi-led coalition, as Yemeni forces reported six military operations against Saudi targets within 48 hours. Yemen’s armed forces announced six military operations against targets inside Saudi Arabia over a 48-hour period, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha Airport, Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oil field, as Saudi authorities reported explosions in the capital on Tuesday and the Saudi-led coalition acknowledged a ballistic missile launch from Yemen toward Riyadh. Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesperson for Yemen’s armed forces, said Tuesday that the operations involved ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones and described them as retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense activated early-warning systems in Riyadh and Al-Kharj province on Tuesday, alerting residents to a potential threat. The warnings were followed by reports of air defense activity and several loud explosions in the Saudi capital. The Saudi-led coalition acknowledged that a ballistic missile had been launched from Yemen toward Riyadh, claiming that its forces had intercepted the projectile. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense later announced that “the danger in Riyadh has passed,” without providing further details about the threat or its origin.
One person killed and 8 injured in airport attack in Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation said one person was killed and eight others were injured in Wednesday’s attack that hit the international airport in the eastern city of Dammam, an oil-producing area near Bahrain that is home to thousands of the industry’s foreign workers. Also Wednesday, the State Department said it ordered the departure from Saudi Arabia of nonemergency U.S. government employees and their family members in response to increased hostilities against Saudi Arabia by the Houthis. The agency cited attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure that have resulted in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions, and a senior administration official warned hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly, including beyond the immediate area.The Dammam airport incident follows the deadliest series of attacks on Saudi Arabia in a decade earlier this month, when Houthi missile strikes hit the country’s key international airport in Riyadh. In the Oct. 10 strike, at least 12 were killed and hundreds injured.Houthis, who didn’t appear to immediately claim responsibility for the latest incident, have also threatened Red Sea shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen and attacked Saudi oil pipelines. The incidents have shaken Saudi Arabia and illustrated the ability of the Houthis to strike deep inside the country.Nearly eight months since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran, the Houthi movement in Yemen that shares some ideology with Tehran is becoming an increasingly worrying dimension to hostilities in the Mideast.President Trump has stepped up threatening language aimed at Tehran but also said the U.S. won’t attack the country before the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Iran has long supplied Yemen’s Houthis with weapons and shares certain ideology with the group, including opposition to the influence in the region of the Saudi regime, the U.S. and Israel.In addition to the airport attack, the Saudi military said it has intercepted and destroyed four drones in the eastern part of its territory.
Why can't Saudi Arabia stop the Houthis' deadly attacks? -- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent weeks have inflicted severe losses on the kingdom, with missiles hitting energy infrastructure and civilian airports, killing at least 20 people. The Iranian proxy group has struck the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, and is fighting Saudi-backed government forces for control of Yemen's coastline on the Red Sea, a vital waterway for global energy supplies. The fighting has put further upward pressure on oil and gas prices as Iran and the U.S. fight over the nearby Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, despite its size, wealth and a substantial military, has appeared to be on the back foot as it faces the Yemeni rebels. The kingdom's opaque government releases regular statements about Houthi ballistic missiles and drones being intercepted, including five it said were destroyed Wednesday. But many have got through, including an Oct. 10 strike that killed 13 people at Riyadh's King Khalid Airport, including a U.S. citizen."No country can ever have a 100% interception rating, that just doesn't really exist," Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CBS News, but that "was a hell of a one to miss."Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute — far more than any other country in the Middle East, including Israel.So why has the kingdom struggled to stop the Houthi barrage? Saudi Arabia is vast and, analysts say, geographically vulnerable. Its east, home to the kingdom's oil fields, is bordered by the Persian Gulf — all that separates Saudi Arabia from longtime foe Iran. Early in the war, Iran launched strikes targeting bases used by the U.S. in Saudi Arabia in retaliation for U.S. attacks.To the north, across Saudi Arabia's long border with Iraq, are Iran-backed militia groups that the Saudis — along with the U.S. — struck in July in response to dozens of attempted drone attacks on the kingdom's infrastructure and on U.S. installations in the region. To the south, Saudi Arabia shares a more-than-800-mile border with Yemen. A vast portion of the war-wracked nation is controlled by the Houthis. To Saudi Arabia's west, the Houthis have also been battling for control of the Red Sea's vital shipping lanes."Over the last eight months, they have been facing threats from every direction," said Dent."There is a lot of critical infrastructure: multiple airports, many pipelines, as well as extensive oil production and export infrastructure, military bases, government buildings, royal palaces, and so on," said Thomas Juneau, associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank's Middle East and North Africa Program. "It is simply extremely difficult to provide air defenses for all these sites over such a large area." "If the Houthis are able to hit Saudi infrastructure with only a minority of their attempted drone or missile attacks, it counts as a success for them and an embarrassment and a loss for Saudi Arabia," Juneau told CBS News.The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have caused a global supply shortage of the interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles and other weapons, including the U.S.-made Patriot system used by Saudi Arabia and other American allies.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked about Ukraine's longstanding request for Patriot interceptors, said Tuesday that "every other country in the world" also wants them. "I also talked to Saudi Arabia today. They'd like interceptors. Israel would like interceptors. We would like interceptors. Every country in the world would like interceptors," Rubio said, calling it "probably the most in-demand product right now in the defense field." "Demand coming from the international [market] is stronger than ever," Tim Cahill, president of missiles and fire control at Lockheed Martin, the world's biggest weapons manufacturer and maker of the Patriot interceptors, told CBS News last week when asked about the short supply.Saudi Arabia is secretive about its weapons systems and stockpiles, but CBS News reported in March that Gulf countries were seeking emergency resupplies of interceptors, while the Wall Street Journal and Associated Press have reported that the kingdom has sought air defense systems from Japan, South Korea, France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt.Patriot interceptors are expensive, costing as much as $4 million per unit."If there's fear over utilizing or drawing down your resources," said Dent, "are you more reticent to pull the trigger?"Saudi Arabia has purchased 730 Patriot interceptors from Washington since 2020, according to U.S. military data, but even if it does have enough, the pricey missiles aren't ideal for combating everything in the Houthi arsenal. Patriots were designed to intercept ballistic missiles, and the Houthis have launched those at Saudi Arabia. But the rebels also have an array of relatively cheap drones, including weapons supplied by Iran, and locally made copies of Iranian attack drones. These inexpensive weapons have been a key element in the Houthis' tactics, analysts say. They can be launched in swarms, Allison Minor, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CBS News. The Houthis "combine an overwhelming number of relatively cheap systems, namely drones, to distract and disrupt and exhaust, and then amid that, also weave in these more catastrophic missile attacks," she said.The Saudis' multi-layered air defense system is sophisticated, but Houthi drones and cruise missiles can change their trajectory, making them harder to track, said Dent, "so if one aspect of that layered defense system breaks down, it can create a gap in coverage, like what may have occurred for the airport attack.""This is a whole new ballgame," said Dent. "It's a tactic that requires some adjustments."One possible solution could be Ukrainian-developed drone interceptors, which cost in the thousands of dollars to manufacture and are produced in the tens of thousands annually, unlike Patriots, which are produced in the hundreds. Saudi Arabia and some of its neighbors have already made deals with Ukraine to acquire such systems, but Dent said they won't be a quick fix as "a lot of what the Ukrainians have been implementing is very hands-on." The systems require skilled operators, in other words, and they require training. Another issue is the Saudi personnel available to receive that training. Analysts do not rate the kingdom's military among the world's best, despite its huge defense budget. Saudi Arabia's armed forces have a reputation for being "structured and run according to the interests of its royal leadership, with an emphasis on regime security," said CBS News national security analyst Aaron MacLean. "You can spend all the money you want on your military and your missile defenses, but you also have to have a culture of readiness and excellence among the troops responsible," he said. "If that's lacking, again, the problem is inherently a hard one: fighting intelligent people who really are trying to kill you and are willing to be quite creative in their pursuit of that goal," he said. "Some shots are going to get through."
Saudi Airstrike Kills Eight Yemeni Fishermen - - Saudi airstrikes struck two fishing boats off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, killing at least eight fishermen, according to Yemeni media. According to the SABA news agency, vessels were struck off the al-Kadha coast in the Dhubab district of Yemen’s southwestern Taiz province near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an area that was under the control of Saudi-backed forces until Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, took the territroy as part of its lightning offensive last month.Yemen’s Al Masirah TV aired footage that showed bodies and wreckage of small boats on the beach following the strikes. According to SABA, the Agriculture and Fisheries Ministry of Yemen’s Ansar Allah-led government, based in Sanaa, described the “targeting of fishermen while working in coastal waters, pursuing and attacking them as they tried to escape, as a crime against civilians.”The statement also “rejected claims by the Saudi-led coalition’s spokesman that traditional boats were being used to smuggle weapons, missiles and military equipment into Yemen, stressing that such allegations do not justify targeting civilian fishermen and their boats.”The Sanaa-based Health Ministry said that the first strike targeted a fishing boat that was anchored near the shore and that the second strike “targeted the surviving fishermen as they attempted to escape in another boat, killing them all.”A day earlier, Turki al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, released footage that showed strikes on vessels he claimed were smuggling weapons, but so far there has been no statement from the coalition about Tuesday’s strikes.The Saudi-led coalition was known for bombing fishing boats during the war from 2015 to 2022. Human Rights Watch reported in 2019 that since 2018, the coalition killed at least 47 Yemeni fishermen, including seven children.Since Saudi Arabia reignited the war by launching airstrikes against the Sanaa International Airport in July, the renewed bombing campaign has had a devastating impact on Yemeni civilians, with at least 66 killed by airstrikes in September, according to the Yemen Data Project. The Saudi air campaign in Yemen is supported by the US, which provides intelligence and targeting support, and is again refueling Saudi fighter jets involved in the war after ending such support eight years ago due to pressure from Congress.
Saudi Attacks in Yemen Have Killed 155 Civilians Since July: Health Ministry - Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks in Yemen have killed at least 155 civilians and wounded 455 since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport on July 13, according to the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government. The vast majority of the civilian casualties were inflicted in September and October, following the start of the ground offensive launched by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.The Yemen Data Project, an independent organization, previously reported that at least 66 civilians were killed by Saudi airstrikes in Yemen in September, and found the single deadliest incident was the September 7 Saudi bombing of the Central Correction Prison in the northern al-Jawf province, where 35 civilians, including one child, were killed. A man holding the body of a child killed by a Saudi strike in Yemen’s al-Jawf province on October 12, 2026 (screenshot of footage from Al Masirah TV) Saudi airstrikes and the number of civilian casualties appear to have increased significantly in October. Health Ministry spokesman Dr. Anis Al-Asbahi said that in just 48 hours between October 16 and October 18, Saudi airstrikes killed 29 civilians and wounded 88.Recent bombings have included strikes on multiple civilian homes. An October 18 strike on a civilian home in Yemen’s northern Saada province killed at least 10 people, including seven children and one woman. An October 12 Saudi bombing of a home in the al-Jawk province killed nine people, including five children.The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen was notorious for bombing civilian areas during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict has followed a similar pattern. The US is strongly backing the Saudi bombing campaign by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support the US suspended back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress. Despite the US support, the civilian casualties in the Saudi air campaign receive very little coverage in US and other Western media, while more of the focus is on the Ansar Allah attacks in Saudi Arabia, which have also caused civilian casualties, though not on the same scale. Most notably was the October 10 strike on the King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, which killed 13 civilians, including one US citizen. On Wednesday, Ansar Allah struck the King Fahd International Airport in the eastern city of Dammam, killing at least two people. Ansar Allah has also been accused of killing civilians in its attacks on Taiz, which is encircled by the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces. Two teenage girls were reported killed by an Ansar Allah missile strike on a residential area of Taiz on Tuesday.The World Health Organization has recorded 1,574 total deaths and 6,939 injuries in Yemen since the war escalated, but it’s unclear what the breakdown is between civilian and militant casualties, as heavy ground fighting between Ansar Allah and Saudi-backed forces has continued.
Saudi Aramco tells staff to evacuate Dhahran as clashes with Yemen's Houthis continue (Reuters) - Saudi state oil company Aramco has told staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf, six people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday, as fighting between the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis intensifies. Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the group pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb, a shipping chokepoint at the Red Sea's mouth. The instruction to staff to evacuate the building and work remotely follows a wave of Houthi attacks on the kingdom, targeting the company and Saudi airports. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment on what would be the first evacuation since the start of the Iran war. It was unclear what the reason for the evacuation was. The kingdom's benchmark index .TASI dropped 2.5% on Thursday following the Aramco news, according to LSEG data. Oil prices rose to their highest since May on Thursday on concern over an escalation of the Middle East conflict and its impact on crude oil supplies from the world's key exporting region. Saudi Arabia reportedly launched 1,600 airstrikes in three weeks - the Houthis are still fighting the Yemeni offensive there to work for good, not just Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised speech that the group had launched attacks on Aramco facilities in the Red Sea city of Yanbu and the Saudi defense ministry in the capital Riyadh. Saudi authorities did not confirm the attack. The Saudi-led coalition said on Thursday it had intercepted drones over Riyadh and Islam's holy city of Medina, which is near Yanbu. The renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and Houthi militias in recent weeks ended a 2022 UN-brokered truce, which had largely halted cross-border attacks, and opened another front in the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Houthis caused extensive damage to Aramco's headquarters earlier this month when they struck the building, with fire spreading across several floors. Saudi Arabia has responded to Houthi attacks with a wave of strikes on missile launcher sites, vowing to protect the kingdom, and says it has intercepted many ballistic missiles fired by the group. Saree said that Saudi attacks on Yemen have killed and wounded 562 people since mid July, when the Houthis imposed a naval blockade on the kingdom which then drew a warning from the Saudi-led coalition that it would respond "firmly". Separately, he said earlier on Thursday that the group is rescuing a boat carrying 14 Indians that was attacked off Jabal Zuqar island near the strait, one of the territories the group seized in an advance in September. A Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Saudi Arabia's eastern oil hub of Dammam near Dhahran on Wednesday evening killed two people, a Saudi citizen and an Indian national, and wounded eight others. Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation said on Thursday that operations at the airport had resumed and air traffic had returned to normal. Authorities in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday blamed Iran-backed Houthi militants for a new attack on a civilian airport that resulted in casualties, as the U.S. said it was pulling some diplomatic personnel from the country in response to continuing threats from the Yemen-based group.
Report: US Troops and Diplomats Evacuating Posts Across the Middle East - The US military has been scaling back its presence at bases across the Middle East, and the US has ordered staff reductions at multiple diplomatic posts in the region, NBC News reported Wednesday, amid growing signs that the US and Israel may be preparing to launch another attack on Iran. Sources told NBC that similar drawdowns were carried out before the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28. US troops at bases in Jordan are among those that have been moved as Iran pounded the facilities during exchanges of strikes in the summer, attacks that caused significant US casualties. The US is also pulling troops out of facilities in Kuwait and Qatar.One US official told the outlet that moving troops out of harm’s way was part of the US military’s planning as President Trump considers restarting “major combat operations” against Iran potentially before or after the November 3 US midterm elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also appears eager to restart the bombing campaign as he’s facing elections in less than a week.The NBC report said that on Wednesday, chiefs of mission at multiple diplomatic posts in the Middle East were notified they would operate with reduced staff. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott denied an earlier report from Reuters that said the US was preparing to issue an order for the departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the region, but acknowledged that such an order has been given for Saudi Arabia.“The US Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency US government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only,” Pigott said.Saudi Arabia continues to face major attacks from Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport. The US is strongly supporting the Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen, which has inflicted significant civilian casualties, by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.“Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions,” Pigott said. “The safety and security of Department personnel and their families remain our highest priority, and we will continue to take all necessary steps to protect and support them.”
Israel Flew Dozens of Fighter Jets Near Iran's Border on Monday: Axios - Dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew near the border of Iran on Monday, according to a report from Axios, a move that may have been meant to provoke an Iranian attack.The report, which cited unnamed US and Israeli officials, said that the Israeli warplanes flew through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, following a flight path consistent with potential strikes against Iran.The sources told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Israel notified the US ahead of time and described the provocative flight as a “power projection” aimed at deterring Iran from attacking Israel before the October 27 Knesset elections. But US officials were left with the impression that Israel was hoping the Iranians would fire at the aircraft.Netanyahu may benefit from a renewed conflict before the elections, and if Iranian missiles are striking Israel, it could actually postpone the vote. In the days leading up to election day, he has ramped up his rhetoric, declaring on Wednesday that he’s directed the IDF and the Israeli spy agency Mossad to “overthrow the Iranian regime.”The US and Israel have been closely coordinating, and the Israeli Air Force operation near the Iranian border occurred the same day that US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was in Israel and met with Netanyahu, though Axios’s sources said the meeting wasn’t related to the flight.
Netanyahu Says His Directive to the Israeli Military Is to 'Overthrow the Iranian Regime' - - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that his directive to the Israeli military is to “overthrow the regime in Iran” as he continues to ramp up his rhetoric in the days before the October 27 Israeli elections.“My directive to the IDF, the Mossad, and the defense establishment… [is] to overthrow the regime in Iran,” Netanyahu told a group of graduating IDF officers, according to The Jerusalem Post. The Israeli leader went on to claim that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is pursuing nuclear weapons, a claim he’s been making about the Islamic Republic for decades.“The Iranian regime still has not learned its lesson. Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father’s footsteps and has released the safety catch, and Iran is once again trying to develop weapons of death,” he said. “Iran is once again attempting to develop a nuclear bomb.”While both Netanyahu and President Trump continue to frame the conflict as being about preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current war that Tehran had decided to pursue nuclear weapons, and that was the consensus of the US intelligence agencies. Netanyahu also referenced Trump’s suggestion that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran, something the US president said when endorsing Netanyahu for Israel’s elections.“And so, as long as they are here, as long as they are willing to join a threatening and terrible weapon, the State of Israel is in existential danger. And our role, the role of all of us, is to save the nation. My good friend, President Trump, also believes that this is the only way,” Netanyahu said.“He said a few days ago, ‘We are ready to finish the job, to finish the job, he said. We are ready to finish the job, but we will do it only with you, the State of Israel.’ And this is exactly what we will do,” he added.The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Netanyahu wanted to resume bombing Iran earlier this month and that the IDF was ready to start the strikes on October 10, but that Trump decided not to restart the conflict before the November 3 US midterm elections.The report said that the strikes would have targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, government sites, and civilian infrastructure, and that if Trump had given the green light, the attacks would have been heavier than the ones launched when the war began on February 28.
WFP Says It's 'Drastically Reducing' Aid To Gaza as Israel Continues Daily Attacks - - The UN’s World Food Program said on Monday that it was being forced to “drastically reduce” aid to Gaza due to funding shortfalls, a statement that came as Israel continued its relentless attacks across the besieged Palestinian territory.The WFP said the funding cuts will reduce the number of people in Gaza it supports with cash and food aid from 1.6 million to 1.5 million, and that it is cutting food rations in half and reducing hot meals from 250,000 to 150,000 per day.“Families living in hard-to-reach areas, including near the yellow line of Israeli military control, will receive a hot meal every other day instead of daily,” the WFP said. Citing data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the WFP said that an estimated 1.4 million people, or 67% of Gaza’s population, are experiencing acute food insecurity at crisis levels or worse.The WFP also said that it was forced to reduce assistance in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and that it would need $450 million to “maintain critical operations in Gaza and the West Bank over the next six months.”The WFP announcement came after Israel halted the shipment of commercial goods into Gaza last week, cutting off another supply of food and other vital goods. Israel claimed the decision was made on behalf of Gaza merchants who dispute a dispute with Hamas, but Palestinians involved in importing goods into Gaza denied that claim, saying it was a unilateral Israeli decision.The Israeli military’s occupation authority, COGAT, said on Monday that the shipment of commercial goods into Gaza would gradually resume, though it said it wouldn’t allow merchants paying any fee to Hamas to import goods, suggesting it will keep tight control over the shipments.Also on Monday, the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that two children were killed by an Israeli drone strike near Khan Younis, southern Gaza, marking the second day in a row that the IDF killed at least two children in the Strip. A third Palestinian was also killed by an Israeli drone attack in Gaza City. Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its daily update on Monday that at least four Palestinians were killed and 22 were injured by Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours. Since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, the IDF has killed at least 1,522 Palestinians and wounded 5,421.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz Says Over 60 Lebanon Villages Have Been Destroyed - -- Last week, the New York Times released the results of its investigation into the ongoing Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon and found that some 48 towns and villages had been destroyed by IDF forces. Defense Minister Israel Katz, in a weekend appearance on Israel’s Channel 14, bragged that the number is even higher.Katz boasted in the appearance that more than 60 villages were actually destroyed outright. “Every single village, we’re talking about 23,000 homes, is in ruins,” Katz declared before a cheering studio audience, before adding “there are no residents left, 200,000 people have been displaced.”The comments appear to leave little doubt that Katz is presenting the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure as a primary goal of the ongoing war in Lebanon, and with elections approaching, one that Katz seems to be seeking to emphasize. “This is the Gaza model. That’s what we’ve been implementing,” Katz declared at the end of laying out those details. The “Gaza model” has been presented time and again by the Israeli right as something to adopt in their various other offensive wars. Since it amounts to a level of wholesale destruction that is already bringing Israel charges of genocide for what happened in Gaza, the attempt to expand the policy abroad seems like it would be controversial, though the Israeli right seems to be campaigning almost exclusively on escalating and expanding the range of such attacks.While Israeli officials have tried to frame Katz as less extreme than some other members of the cabinet, the defense minister has repeatedly pushed narratives toward further aggression. Indeed, just a few days ago he issued a statement threatening to expand the permanent occupation deeper into Lebanon and to totally annihilate Lebanon’s Shi’ite community.This puts the destruction in Lebanon in a position somewhat district from the indiscriminate violence in Gaza. While Israel is eagerly destroying much of the infrastructure in Lebanon as well, Katz has repeatedly made clear that Israel is deliberately targeting Shi’ites within Lebanon, destroying Shi’ite majority villages, and expelling Shi’ite civilians from their homes. While there were already serious war crimes concerns under international law for the indiscriminate violence against civilians, deliberately targeting a single religion puts the crime in a potentially whole new category of religious persecution and violence. Israel invaded Lebanon in early March, and has expanded the offensive north of the Litani River. Though there are notionally some diplomatic deals in place with Lebanon at this point, none of them require Israel to stop attacking or occupying, and attacks on Lebanese towns continue daily. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam is seeking international support for convincing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and international help to reconstruct what has been destroyed. Since Katz has repeatedly presented southern Lebanon as a “permanent” buffer zone Israel intends to control, that’s an uphill battle on both accounts.
Israeli guards assault female Palestinian detainees, force them to remove headscarves: Rights group A Palestinian prisoners’ advocacy group says Israeli prison guards have forcibly removed the headscarves of female Palestinian detainees, physically assaulted them, and fired tear gas into their cells and bathing areas. In a report issued on Monday, the Asra Media Office (AMO) said the abuse had caused health problems among several detainees, including a pregnant woman. The rights group said an Israeli police officer forced female Palestinian detainees to remove their headscarves for hair inspections and undo their braids, before placing 17 of them in solitary confinement. The group denounced the incident as a “violation of their privacy.” The AMO noted that Israeli soldiers made several inmates lie face down on the ground for an hour, beat them and then led them into cells filled with tear gas. Prison guards also sprayed pepper spray into a room holding 15 female detainees, including elderly women, causing several to vomit. According to the group, one detainee had to be removed from the room after fainting, while another was left unable to walk. The AMO called for immediate action to protect Palestinian women detainees from abuse and violations in Israeli prisons and ensure they receive the medical care they need. Thousands of Palestinians remain in Israeli prisons, where human rights organizations have repeatedly documented violations of detainees’ rights under the Geneva Conventions. Palestinian detainees are held in Israeli prisons under dire conditions, facing inadequate sanitation, systematic abuse, intimidation, and other forms of mistreatment. The Palestine Detainees Studies Center says around 60 percent of Palestinians held in Israeli detention suffer from chronic health conditions, with some dying in custody or shortly after their release due to the severity of their illnesses.
Jerusalem Church Leaders Strongly Condemn Jewish Settler Attack on Christian West Bank Village - Christian leaders in Jerusalem have released a statement strongly condemning an attack by Jewish settlers against the Christian village of Taybeh and visiting European diplomats in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and the “terror” that Palestinians are facing from settlers across the territory.The attack near Taybeh targeted Palestinians, Belgian, French, and Polish diplomats, as well as a French mayor. The statement from the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem, which includes Catholic, Orthodox, and Protestant leaders, condemned the “heinous attack carried out on Saturday, 17 October, by masked settlers in Taybeh against local residents during the olive harvest, and against the foreign guests, including diplomats and officials from European countries.”It said that the “wild attack on the Christian village of Taybeh and against its peaceful population is not an isolated incident,” noting that in recent weeks the “Palestinian villages of the West Bank have been exposed to a wide-scale terror by settlers, which is reaching a peak during this time of the olive harvest, when families go to their lands to collect what they need to live and renew their generations-long bond with their land.”The Christian leaders also condemned a religious ruling from Rabbi Dov Lior, a leading figure in the religious Zionism and settler movements, that said Jews had the right to steal olives from Palestinian orchards in the West Bank.“In this regard, we consider the religious ruling recently published, allowing Jews to take the olives of Palestinians, as unfounded, very worrying and dangerous, and absolutely unacceptable. We very much appreciate that several rabbis and Jewish voices have publicly rejected it,” the Christian leaders said.The statement noted that Israeli police made arrests following the attack on Taybeh and expressed hope that “this enforcement will continue in a serious and consistent manner and will not remain an isolated measure.”Taybeh, the last entirely Christian village in the West Bank, has faced relentless pressure and attacks from Israeli settlers, which have continued despite international attention on the village. Following the latest attack, US diplomats visited Taybeh, but US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended a settler conference that same day.Huckabee has condemned certain settler attacks but has defended the settler movement as a whole and maintains that Jews have a God-given right to Palestinian land. Huckabee is a Christian Zionist, an ideology that the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem previously described as “damaging.”
Ukraine Hits Oil Sites in St. Petersburg as It Launches Over 1,000 Drones at Russia - - Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot and an oil export facility in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Sunday, setting the facilities on fire as Ukraine continues targeting Russian oil infrastructure despite President Trump claiming he’s opposed to such attacks. Aleksandr Beglov, the governor of St. Petersburg, said on Telegram that one person was killed and five others were injured by the Ukrainian attack. He said that 12 apartment buildings and two private homes were damaged in the attack and that there were fires at the Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchyi oil depot.While Trump has expressed opposition to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, the strikes are known to be supported by US intelligence, and there’s no sign that support has been suspended since the attacks continue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed the US deliberately reduced Ukraine’s Starlink capability last week, and Reuters reported that the White House ordered the throttle, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied those claims. “I don’t know what Zelensky said, I’m not sure Zelensky knows what he’s talking about, but it wasn’t deliberate,” Rubio said on Saturday. “We had nothing to do with that. I don’t, the United States, nobody ordered that Starlink speed to be slowed down. It sort of happened, but my understanding is it’s been restored, it’s back to what it was before.”Rubio also denied that Ukraine ever had access to the US military’s version of Starlink, known as Starshield, but had requested it. “Starshield is a contract with the US military, it has nothing to do with Ukraine. I know Ukraine wants access to Starshield, they do not have Starshield now. They’ve asked for access to it in order to conduct deep strikes inside of Russia. They do not have access to it at this moment. Those are two different products,” he said. Regarding the Ukrainian attacks on Sunday, Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad Oblast, the region that surrounds St. Petersburg, said that 135 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Leningrad, making it one of the largest attacks on the region of the war. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, the largest attack occurred on June 6, 2026, when Russian forces intercepted 144 drones.The attacks on St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast were part of a major Ukrainian attack on Russia that involved more than 1,000 drones. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its forces shot down 1,015 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian regions and the Black Sea.Russian attacks also continued in Ukraine on Sunday, with strikes in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia killing a woman and injuring two, including a six-year-old, according to The Associated Press. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its strikes included attacks on “military industry enterprises, energy infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the AFU, as well as ships involved in the delivery of military cargo to Ukraine.”
Bombshell: Lithuanian Defense Minister Reveals Ukrainian Drones Used in St. Petersburg Attack Came From Polish Airspace --Last night Ukraine launched another large-scale attack on the St. Petersburg region, which according to reports was the largest of the war as it targeted multiple different enterprises, including oil and data center facilities.The Ukrainian operation against Saint Petersburg, Russia, has been the largest in this war against this Russian city.Three major targets were hit during this operation:
- The local oil terminal respectively the oil storage units
- The VKontakte Datacenter
- The local Ozon logistics hub
The biggest story surrounding the attack, however, is that once again Ukraine utilized NATO airspace to carry out the attack and, presumably, to bypass Russian air defenses. Before we get into the details, let us first bring reminder of the last time this happened during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June of this year, which we covered in the following piece: Ukraine's SPIEF Attack Aims for Max Provocation, as Drones Witnessed Coming From Baltic Direction - Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Russia’s St. Petersburg to coincide with the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). The purpose was obviously to humiliate Russia in front of its many international attendees, which included US State Department personnel and foreign dignitaries.You’ll recall that we geolocated and triangulated the drone trajectories during that attack and concluded that based on the vantage point of the cameras, at least some of the drones which hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal were in fact coming from the westerly direction as follows: The article also included a video taken from a Russian boat that showed a Ukrainian drone skimming the Baltic Sea at an area we guessed to be near the border of Estonia. But now, we have definitive confirmation from last night’s attacks: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman admitted that Lithuanian airspace was utilized by Ukrainian drones, but blamed it on “Russian electronic warfare”: The full statement: We regret the incident that occurred this morning in Lithuanian airspace, which may have resulted from Russian electronic warfare diverting drones during an operation against legitimate military targets in Russia. We apologise for any disruption, risks, and concern this may have caused. We are committed to sharing all relevant information with our Lithuanian partners to establish the full circumstances of the incident. We will continue to work closely together to prevent similar incidents in the future.We sincerely thank Lithuania, our ally, for supporting Ukraine in countering Russian aggression, which is the root case of the security threats in our region. Some Russian channels have mapped the incident as follows, utilizing the air alerts and civil warnings that were issued in various central Lithuanian counties, as well as those in bordering regions of Latvia:Speculation continues that the drones traveled through Russian territory, skirting around Belarus, and then swung west into Latvian and Estonian territory for the final stretch of the mission. But that makes little sense, and would not explain why Lithuania had air alerts, which is quite far from Russian borders. Recall my logical critique from the earlier article: If Russian electronic warfare was so inimitable as to be able to thwart the Ukrainian drones to somehow veer all the way into Lithuania as claimed by the Ukrainian spokesman—a country that does not even remotely border Russia (not counting Kaliningrad)—then why wouldn’t the same all-powerful electronic warfare systems be able to keep all drones from hitting their targets in St. Petersburg?As far as we know, most of the targets were in fact hit. Why would Russia have extremely effective electronic warfare systems positioned in the unpopulated hinterlands east of Belarus, yet have none of the same “powerful” systems anywhere near St. Petersburg which could have easily deflected the Ukrainian drones into the Baltic Sea just as they so easily deflected them into Lithuania according to these claims? In short: The EW warfare explanation is an obvious fraud.But in a shocking plot twist, a Reuters report quoted the Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas as casually revealing that the drones in fact “came from Poland”:
NATO Deploys Planes, Drones, and Radar Systems to the Black Sea - - On Tuesday, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev disclosed that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, tasked to NATO, had begun patrols over the Black Sea. Bulgaria, which joined NATO in 2004, the EU in 2007 and the “Eurozone” this year, requested NATO assistance following escalating drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea. Last week, the cargo ship Dignity, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged vessel, was sunk and the Ukrainian-operated coastal freighter Chelsea, a Malta-flagged vessel, was disabled. Both ships were struck by drones approximately 20 miles off the coast of Bulgaria. According to Stars and Stripes, NATO’s top decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, held a meeting on Tuesday to discuss Black Sea security concerns. In a press statement, US Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesman, said, “Allies have or will send additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, explosive exploitation teams, intelligence personnel, drones, and more to the Black Sea.”According to the Kyiv Independent, in a press statement, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said, “NATO has already strengthened our posture along the eastern flank, including with counter-drone capabilities…We will continue to stand united and ensure that we are ready and able to address any threat and to keep our one billion people safe.”Neither NATO nor the national governments of any of its 32 member nations have directly accused Russia of the recent drone attacks, while Ukraine has. Two weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russia for sinking the Alfa Watan, a Togo-flagged cargo ship. Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha directly blamed Russia for the attacks on the Dignity and Chelsea.It remains unclear whether Russia conducted those specific attacks, but both Russia and Ukraine have conducted confirmed attacks on each other’s interests in the Black Sea. Two weeks ago, Ukraine struck an oil tanker with drones off the Russian coast near Sochi.Black Sea shipping is vital to global food and energy security, and the recent escalation of attacks comes at a time when the American and Israeli war against Iran has critically degraded Middle East energy production. Experts have warned that a global famine could be brought about if these conflicts are not resolved.The United Nations’ “Black Sea Initiative” of 2022 sought to stabilize agricultural shipping during the war but was abandoned during the summer of 2023. With no end in sight to the war that has raged for almost five years, the deployment of NATO assets to the Black Sea signals the potential for even more escalation.
China Imposes Export Curbs On Drones, Heavy Machinery - China said on Monday it would expand curbs on drone exports and restrict the sales of some heavy machinery to "sensitive countries" with which the communist regime has disputes. Exporters will need a license to ship certain types of drones, such as those capable of traveling more than 300 km (186 miles) or flying beyond the natural line of sight, China's Ministry of Commerce said in an Oct. 19 statement, citing national security grounds. The drones' engines, operating systems, and technologies used for manufacturing will also be subjected to controls. Other affected products include some tunnel-boring machines, walking excavators, and high-altitude concrete-spraying machines - all sophisticated machinery for building railway and road tunnels through mountains, according to a separate press release. Decades of investment have helped China become the world's major supplier of tunnel-boring machines. Chinese media have long touted that the country makes 70 percent of such machines around the globe. Among the leading manufacturers are state-owned China Railway Engineering Equipment Group, whose website said its machines are delivered to overseas projects in 36 countries, including Italy, Australia, and Peru. Separately, the regime's commerce ministry announced export restrictions on key components of dredgers, including heavy-duty pumps used to scoop up mud and sand from the seabed. Overseas companies and individuals will be barred from transferring China-sourced dredger-related items to "sensitive countries and regions that have disputes with China," the ministry said. Beijing didn't name any specific country. But some analysts, including Brookings Institution fellow Kyle Chan, said India could be a likely focus. The two neighbors have longstanding border disputes that escalated into war in the 1960s. China has invested heavily in developing its dredger industry, with state-owned CCCC Dredging being the country's leading producer and contractor. All three new export restrictions will be enforced beginning Nov. 18. A ministry spokesperson said these newly added products have "clear dual-use characteristics," meaning they can be used for both military and civilian purposes. Chinese officials had already notified trading partners through export-control dialogue mechanisms ahead of the announcement, the spokesperson added. The ministry also signaled tightened checks on dual-use products. Customs officers will detain goods and question export operators if they suspect a shipment includes controlled items. Exporters will have seven working days to respond and submit required documents such as contracts and receipts. The rules take effect immediately and also apply to cross-border e-commerce, mail, and travelers' luggage.
