Focus on Fracking: US oil supplies are lowest in 42½ years; US stocks of oil and oil products lowest in 23 years; barrels refined is October record

largest one week oil price jump in 3 months; total US oil supplies are the lowest since March 23rd, 1984; US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products are the lowest since May 23, 2003…largest oil inventory draw since February 13th; the highest October US refinery utilization rate since 2003; barrels refined were the most in any October week on record, but gasoline production from those refineries was the lowest in 33 weeks; gasoline demand was at a 32 week low; gasoline exports were at a 33 week low; distillates demand were at a 34 week high…

US oil prices finished higher for the fifth time in seven weeks after Houthi missile barrages struck the Saudi’s International Airport in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran, Iran sunk two cargo ships and hit at least a dozen others in the Strait of Hormuz, and US oil supplies fell by the most since February…after rising 0.8% to $91.85 a barrel last week on increased attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and as the first Gulf hurricane of the year shut down a quarter of U.S. offshore oil production, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery edged lower during early Asian trading on Monday, as markets weighed the possibility of more diesel supplies after US President Trump said Russia would supply additional diesel to the US and global markets, but erased those early losses to climb to nearly a two-week high as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears over the security of critical oil supply routes, and then reached that two week high in early trading in New York as Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure over the weekend added to concerns about the stability and longevity of the current Middle Eastern oil supply recovery, and settled $1.89 higher at $93.74 a barrel as the successful Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed the Trump brokered deal to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports…oil prices fell in Asian trading Tuesday, as traders debated whether additional Russian diesel supplies could ease current fuel shortages amid ongoing Middle East tensions, then extended their pullback from Monday's gains before markets opened in the US, as Trump reiterated that the Iran war would end very soon, and claimed that talks between Washington and Tehran continued through intermediaries, but bounced off a low of $91.70 and never looked back as traders focused on the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and on the Yemen Oil Company in Sanaa, and settled 40 cents higher at $94.14 per barrel as escalating political tensions in the Middle East lent support to prices, while concerns over weaker global demand weighed on the market after OPEC's latest monthly report pointed to a subdued demand outlook….oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Wednesday, as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions from renewed fighting between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia, alongside expectations of increased Russian diesel exports, then climbed further on global markets after two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian officials told Reuters they were deploying new tactics to target ships, but were mixed Wednesday morning in New York as traders assessed the latest escalation in hostilities in the Middle East and an International Energy Agency projection warning of a prolonged diesel shortage, then rallied to settle 95 cents higher at $95.09 a barrel after Houthi forces launched a strike on Saudi Aramco’s administrative headquarters in Dhahran, and Iranian officials announced a transition to offensive naval tactics targeting commercial vessels aimed at keeping oil prices elevated…oil prices declined by around 2% during Asian trading on Thursday following reports that the US was considering measures to relax restrictions on tankers associated with Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, but then climbed nearly 3% in early US trading after the EIA unexpectedly reported a steep decline in US crude oil inventories during the previous week, and settled $2.88 higher at $97.97 a barrel on the larger than expected draw from US crude stocks, and on the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Yemini Houthis….oil prices edged lower during Asian trading on Friday as uncertainty over Middle East supplies persisted amid the ongoing conflict, and were still down slightly in early US trading amid growing supply risks in Russia and the Middle East, but rallied to settle $3.44 higher on the sinking of a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz and on reports of potential preemptive strikes and rumors of attacks targeting Saudi Arabian energy networks, leaving oil prices up 10.4% for the week, the largest weekly jump since mid-July..

on the other hand, natural gas prices finished lower for the second time in three weeks on mild weather forecasts for the next two weeks and also for the coming winter…after rising 6.1% to $3.220 per mmBTU last week after Hurricane Isaias idled production but left LNG exports unscathed, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for November delivery gas fell 5.3 cents to $3.167 per mmBTU in light holiday trading on Monday, driven by updated weather forecasts predicting milder temperatures across the U.S. and lower heating demand than previously expected, but traded gradually higher throughout the Tuesday session as traders returned from a long weekend to digest the impact of Hurricane Isaias, and settled 11.6 cents higher at $3.283 per mmBTU, fueled by tight supply, recovering LNG feedgas and a brief northern cooldown in the forecast….but November natural gas opened 4.9 cents lower on Wednesday, and trended lower from there, as traders weighed warmer temperatures in the Midwest against steady LNG exports, and settled 8.5 cents lower at $3.198 per mmBTU amid signs of recovering supply and sluggish weather-driven demand in the forecast….that front month gas price started Thursday 4.2 cents higher, and rose to $3.260 ahead of the weekly storage report, then peaked at an intraday high of $3.303 just after the report of a bullish injection hit the wire, but faded thereafter to settle 3.8 cents higher at $3.236 per mmBTU, holding onto modest gains on a bullish storage surprise, robust LNG feedgas, and a major Appalachian pipeline outage…natural gas futures slumped to start Friday’s session, as traders digested a lean storage print, light production readings, an Appalachian pipeline outage, continued strong LNG volumes and mixed near-term weather forecasts, then tumbled through midday amid mild October weather expectations and weakening power demand, while a major Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) pipeline restriction remained in effect in Appalachia, and settled 12.0 cents lower at $3.116 per mmBTU on bearish near-term weather patterns and forecasts pointing toward a mild winter, and thus finished down 3.2% for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 9th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 67 billion cubic feet to 3,567 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 143 billion cubic feet, or 3.9% below the 3,710 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 9th of last year, but 45 billion cubic feet, or 1.3% above the five-year average of 3,522 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 9th of October over the most recent five years….the 67 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 75 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market had been expecting ahead of the report, and it was less than the 80 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and also less than the average 90 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical at the beginning of October over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 9th showed that after a sizeable decrease in our oil imports, a drop in production from US wells, and an increase in our oil refining, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the twenty-second time in twenty-five weeks…. Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 791,000 barrels per day to average 6,049,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 1,142,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 195,000 barrels per day to average 4,570,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1.479,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 9th, an average of 596,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 95,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 542,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 300,000 barrels per day lower 13,679,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,700,000 barrels per day during the October 9th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,615,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 9th, an average of 135,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average net of 1,222,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 9th averaged 307,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a rounded [ -308,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that amount in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Since 589,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 281,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are somehow off by that much, and are therefore not very useful….However, since most oil traders react to the figures in these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this March 2023 twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s rounded 1,222,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 1,222,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercial stocks of crude oil, while supplies in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve were unchanged for the first time in twenty-nine weeks.....but with commercial oil supplies down sharply this week, that left the Total of all US Oil Supplies at 698,560,000 barrels, down 19.8% from 870,774,000 barrels on April 17th, and the lowest since March 23rd, 1984….

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Data Overview (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,116,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.9% more than the 6,064,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year, while the four week average of our exports fell to 4,047,000 barrels per day last week, which was 0.6% less than the 4,073,000 barrel per day average that we were exporting last year year at this time... This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 300,000 barrels per day lower at 13,679,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 276,000 barrels per day lower at 13,214,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 24,000 barrels per day lower at 465,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.4% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.0% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 93.5% of their capacity while processing those 16,615,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 9th, up from 92.7% the prior week, and the highest October utilization rate since 2003….the 16,615,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were the most barrels refined in any October week on record, 9.8% more than the 15,130,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending October 10th of 2025, and 7.6% more than the 15,436 ,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending October 11th , 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 83.1%, which was well below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year, probably due to the historic flooding across southeast Texas in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda of that year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil that was being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was again lower, decreasing by 117,000 barrels per day to 9,232,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 9th, the lowest in 33 weeks, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 117,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 1.4% less than the 9,359,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending October 10th of last year, and 7.7% less than the gasoline production of 9,998,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending October 11th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 101,000 barrels per day to 5,189,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 287,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after that production decrease, our distillates output was 13.0% more than the 4,592,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 10th of 2025, and 10.7% more than the 4,688,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 11th, 2019....

Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the ninth time in thirty-five weeks, increasing by 3,518,000 barrels to 204,744,000 barrels during the week ending October 9th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 382,000 barrels to a twelve year low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose by more this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 361,000 barrels per day to a 32 week low of 8,408,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 39,000 barrels per day to a 33 week low of 792,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 4,000 barrels per day to 508,000 barrels per day.. After fifty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past eighty-six weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.8% lower than last October 10th’s gasoline inventories of 218,826,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s decrease in distillates production, our supplies of distillates fell for the seventeenth time in thirty-five weeks, decreasing by 2,527,000 barrels to 102,611,000 barrels during the week ending October 9th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 42,000 barrels during the prior week... Our distillates supplies fell by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 673,000 barrels per day to a 34 week high of 4,323,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 391,000 barrels per day to 1,373,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 27,000 barrels per day to 145,000 barrels per day... After 32 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 65 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 12.3% below the 117,030,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 10th of 2025, and were about 12% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the drop in our oil imports and the hurricane induced drop in our well production, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 17th time in twenty-six weeks, for the 28th time over the past year, and by the most since February 13th, decreasing by 8,557,000 barrels over the week, from 427,320,000 barrels on October 9th to 424,134,000 barrels on October 2nd, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,186,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 3% below recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 17% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude inventories had been less extreme up until the onset of the Iran war, when they were initially built up to a three year high by mid-April, before falling to the lowest in nearly eight years by late July…This week’s decrease was the largest in eight months, and as of October 9th our commercial crude inventories were 1.9% below the 423,785,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on October 10th of 2025, and 1.2% less than the 420,550,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 11th of 2024, and 1.0% less than the 419,748,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 13th of 2023…

With this week’s big drop in crude oil inventories, that also meant that the week ended with total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products down by 13,384,000 barrels to 1,506,999,000 barrels, the lowest for that total supply figure since May 23, 2003…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was unchanged over the week ending October 16th, as the number of rigs targeting oil was down by three, while the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by one and miscellaneous rigs were up by two…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary table from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 16th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 9th) and this week’s (October 16th) count, the third column shows last week’s October 9th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 17th of October, 2025…

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Tell the Ohio EPA: No air permit for Meta’s third polluting gas plant! – Save Ohio Parks - We are following four large combustion gas plants proposed and approved at the Ohio Power Siting Board to power the Meta Prometheus data center in New Albany.But there’s a second process – an application for an air permit at the Ohio EPA. This includes the opportunity to file a public comment – and if enough of us ask, to testify at a public hearing. Right now the Ohio EPA is taking comments on Meta’s third gas plant called Socrates the Younger. Please go to the Ohio EPA Open Projects page and search for Permit # P0139969 to file a comment. Like the other Meta gas plants, Socrates the Younger is not using Best Available Technology. Instead it will use 20 simple cycle turbines, which are more polluting, along with four internal combustion engines – like a gas car engine only much larger. As a result, it could create a long list of pollutants including:

1,825,295 tons of greenhouse gas (CO2e)
148 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
186 tons of carbon monoxide (CO)
147 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2)
104 tons of particulate matter (PM)
101 tons of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs)

Incredibly, the draft permit excuses Meta from using Best Available Technology on the grounds each of the 20 simple cycle turbines and four reciprocating engines emits less than 10 tons per year of criteria pollutants.While that may be true, the facility as a whole emits 10 to 18 times more for each of these pollutants — and the permit is for the entire facility, not each individual gas turbine or gas engine. Please file a public comment asking the Ohio EPA to deny the air permit for Socrates the Younger and hold a public hearing. Go to the Ohio EPA Open Projects page and search for Permit # P0139969. Up to 11,500 children live in the project area, and they deserve clean air. The people of Appalachian Ohio deserve clean air and water free from fracking and frack waste injection wells. And our state parks and wildlife areas are supposed to be protected from oil and gas extraction. Children also deserve a climate-safe future, but the Ohio EPA doesn’t even consider the most prevalent pollutant from Socrates the Younger – over 1.8 million tons of greenhouse gas. Finally, please also ask for a public hearing. Socrates the Younger was approved at the Ohio Power Siting Board with no public notice or public hearing. Ohioans deserve a chance to tell the state how this gas plant will affect them. Please file a public comment asking the Ohio EPA to deny the air permit for Socrates the Younger and hold a public hearing. Go to the Ohio EPA Open Projects page and search for Permit # P0139969. Thanks so much for your advocacy on behalf of Ohioans and our natural world. You can use the information above to write your comment, or find a sample comment below.

PJM plans to study SoftBank's Ohio AI project under state agreement approach -- The PJM Interconnection intends to assess SoftBank Group’s roughly 10-GW AI data center complex planned on federal land in Ohio, and the generation and transmission needed to serve it, under a “state agreement approach” framework, according to a study agreement filed Tuesday at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.The project, dubbed “Flagship,” was announced by the White House in mid-February as part of a $550 billion trade deal with Japan. It includes an estimated $33 billion for 9.2 GW in gas-fired generation for the project. An AEP Ohio data center tariff will serve an initial 800-MW phase of the project, according to PJM. The PJM study agreement covers an additional 9.6 GW of load and 10.2 GW of new gas-fired generation to be built by SB Energy, a SoftBank company, in phases through 2032. AEP Ohio plans to build three 765-kV transmission lines and related infrastructure to serve the project, according to PJM. Most of the Flagship project being developed by SB Energy and other SoftBank affiliates would be built at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, a former uranium enrichment facility in Pike County, Ohio. Some of the generation would be built about 30 miles away, according to PJM. In its filing at FERC, PJM noted that the agency has encouraged grid operators to integrate their studies of load and generation. “The Study Agreement provides a means for PJM to undertake such an integrated evaluation in response to Ohio’s specific [State Agreement Approach] request while PJM continues development of a more formalized process to study requests of this nature,” the grid operator said. PJM’s SAA framework allows a state or group of states to ask the grid operator to study specific projects needed to meet state policies. Projects that are built under the framework are paid for by consumers within the state requesting the agreement. With the Flagship project, SB Energy intends to pay for any generation and transmission infrastructure that is built to serve the data centers. “Consistent with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, SB Energy has committed to bringing new generation to support the project and paying for required power delivery infrastructure and network upgrades through arrangements designed to protect other customers from project-related costs,” PJM said. SB Energy’s commitments include infrastructure payment obligations that apply regardless of how much electricity the data center complex uses and making excess generation and transmission capacity available to the grid, PJM said. The specific cost allocation and cost recovery mechanisms remain subject to future Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and FERC proceedings, the grid operator said. In its study, PJM will assess whether the transmission facilities AEP Ohio identifed are sufficient to support the Flagship project and if additional infrastructure is needed, the grid operator said. “The studies will provide the technical basis for Ohio to determine whether to proceed, but they will not themselves select transmission projects or designated entities, establish cost allocations, or grant the Flagship Project transmission service or interconnection rights,” PJM said. While PJM conducts its grid reliability studies for the project, it said it intends to work with Ohio and other parties at the same time to develop a cost allocation methodology that would apply to any “state agreement public policy projects” that PUCO decides to sponsor. PJM asked FERC to “accept” the study agreement and make it retroactively effective on Sept. 25, 2026 — the date it was executed.

SoftBank Ohio Gas Plants Get Express Lane Around PJM's Clogged Queue -- Marcellus Drilling News - Marcellus Drilling News - Last month we told you Ohio had asked PJM to dust off the "State Agreement Approach," a grid-planning tool invented for New Jersey's offshore wind, and use it instead for the $4.2 billion in power lines feeding the 10-gigawatt SoftBank data center and gas plant complex at Piketon (see Ohio Uses NJ Wind Tool to Fast-Track Piketon Gas/AI Power Lines). That request is now a signed deal. On Tuesday, PJM filed the executed study agreement with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Tucked inside are two new pieces of news: the project's gas plants get to skip PJM's notoriously clogged interconnection queue, and the full turbine list is out. Every one of the 77 turbines is a GE Vernova. Siemens is nowhere to be found.

MDN Exclusive: 7-Figure Utica Mineral Deal Covers 116 Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a story you won’t read anywhere else. Strata Petroleum, LLC buys oil and gas mineral rights, and it has quietly sold its mineral interests in 116 producing Ohio Utica wells to Dallas-based Rising Phoenix Royalties. The deal closed effective October 5. Strata managing partner Justin Wainwright reached out to MDN with the news. He won’t disclose the exact price, but he told us it was “well into 7 figures.” The wells are operated by two of the biggest names in the Ohio Utica, EOG Resources and Ascent Resources, and they’re spread across six of the play’s core counties. Strata says it isn’t leaving the region. It plans to keep buying minerals across Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Ascent Resources | Belmont County | Carroll County | Columbiana County | EOG Resources | Guernsey County | Harrison County | Jefferson County (OH) | Lease & Royalty Payments | M&A

Bristolville couple seeking reimbursement for gas line project - Terri and David Ratcliffe of Bristolville spent years figuring out how to get gas connected to their home. They were told by Northeast Ohio Gas that there were not enough customers in their area to warrant an extension, and the connection was possible, but they would have to fund it themselves. After the Ratcliffes spent $20,333 on the project, the company has marked areas they plan to extend the gas line that the Ratcliffes started. “Why are we footing the bill? But the bigger issue just is that had we never done this, and they needed to hook up to enhance their system, they would have had to go from up there at their expense,” said Terri Ratcliffe. The couple feels the company is benefiting from a project they started. Play Video. “'I’m going to guess somebody had to present to somebody some financial plan for the project, right? This is how much it's going to cost. This is what we're going to save. How did they account for this portion? Did they say, oh, well, the Ratcliffe project saved us $20,000,” Terri added. They were told the line extension is for "improving system reliability," not for other homes to tap into. “They're not extending it for other customers to tap in. They're extending it for system reliability, which, in our opinion, is actually worse. So we funded part of their project,” However, a neighbor said they were told they will be able to tap into the line. That same neighbor was quoted $15,000 for gas connection, and has not been given a timeline for, if they do choose to have gas connected, when that would be. The couple is frustrated with the lack of communication, they have been in contact with one representative who is unable to give them answers. They have been told someone will be reaching out to them, but that has not yet happened. They are asking for a full reimbursement from Northeast Ohio Gas.. Northeast Ohio Gas released the following statement: “The project design for the customer’s mainline extension on Corey Hunt Road referenced in your inquiry was requested in March 2023. The installation included approximately 1,600 feet of two-inch pipeline to bring natural gas service to the customers’ property. The work was completed in October 2023, and the customer paid the standard, and agreed-upon, charge for the requested extension, under terms established in accordance with the company’s PUCO-approved tariff. At the time of that 2023 extension, Northeast Ohio Natural Gas was not experiencing reliability issues in this area and had not planned the current system-reliability project. During the period of extreme cold in early 2026, this area of our system struggled to meet the service needs of local customers due to gas pressure. The line serving Housel Craft Road lost pressure, resulting in an outage affecting several customers near the end of the line. Gas pressure can decline near the end of a line, particularly during periods of extreme cold and high demand.

Utica Shale Academy awarded funds to expand - Efforts by Utica Shale Academy to prepare area youth for a variety of technical careers have received a major boost with the award of federal and state funds to expand its programs to Belmont, Harrison and Guernsey counties. The regional trade school has been awarded a $336,578 grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission and $451,212 in state education funds to replicate the model for career technical education it has established in Columbiana County. Superintendent Bill Watson said the funds will be awarded over a three-year period through the federal economic development agency's Prevention, Employability, Equity and Resilience Initiative. Officials with the Appalachian Regional Commission said the project will allow Utica Shale Academy to build on its demonstrated dropout recovery and workforce development model by integrating industry-recognized credential training with evidence-based substance use prevention, behavioral health services, career coaching, peer recovery support and wraparound services. Watson said the funding will allow the school to employ a workforce readiness specialist, drug prevention specialist and school-based therapist for up to 150 students who will pursue training for certification as an instrumentation and control electrical technician. He said the training has been recommended by members of the school's oil and gas advisory board and will be vital not only for that industry but also for others turning increasingly toward automation. Asked if other programs may be offered in the future, Watson said, "You have to crawl before you walk. Do we hope to grow? Absolutely." Utica Shale Academy currently provides instruction in welding, diesel mechanics and industrial maintenance as well as online instruction in core subjects to about 164 students in Columbiana, Jefferson, Carroll, Mahoning and Stark counties. Watson confirmed that just as the current school grew with support from the Southern Local School District, school officials in the grant's target area have been involved in plans for the expansion. He expressed thanks to the Ohio Mid-Eastern Governments Association and particularly to Vicki King-Maple, its executive director; and Ellie Dudding, regional development director for the agency; for assistance in attaining the grant. Watson was asked what gave Utica Shale Academy an edge in obtaining the highly sought regional development funds. He believes a major selling point was the school's timely and efficient use of a $2.3 million Appalachian Community Grant, through the office of Gov. Mike DeWine, to establish facilities for its workforce training programs. Watson added the success of its students also was an important factor. He noted that last year, the school's graduation rate was double the state's and its students' performance in core subjects fell one point below double the state's average while its graduates have earned more than 1,000 professional certifications since the school opened. "We have a track record and history of doing what we say we're going to do and doing it well," he said.

EMG Utica Midstream rating affirmed at BB- with stable outlook - EMG Utica Midstream Holdings keeps its BB- long-term issuer rating as stable cash distributions from its Utica Shale joint ventures continue to underpin its credit profile. The assessment also reflects expectations that leverage stays around 3.25x over the forecast period, even as the company remains exposed to concentrated customers and regional volumetric risk. As reported by Fitch Ratings, the agency has affirmed EMG Utica Midstream Holdings, LLC's long-term issuer default rating at BB-, while also affirming its term loan at BB with a Recovery Rating of RR3 and maintaining a stable outlook.The rating action rests on Holdco's minority interests in two joint venture operating companies in the Utica Shale, which Fitch says provide stable monthly distributions backed by more than a decade of operating history. Fixed-fee contracts, CPI escalators and acreage dedications support revenue, while the pairing of dry-gas and rich-gas assets helps balance cash flow across commodity cycles.Fitch says the rich-gas joint venture has added capacity through a recent brownfield expansion, limiting the need for significant near-term capital spending on a new processing plant. The agency also views Holdco's cash flow protections positively because the ventures distribute available cash monthly after expenses and required reserves, and neither operating company carries debt.Holdco also retains board representation and consent rights over reserved matters at both ventures, including distribution policy changes, debt issuance above set thresholds and annual budgets. Fitch says those governance rights support adequate distributions for servicing Holdco debt despite its non-operator role and minority ownership position.Fitch says the company's small asset base leaves volumes exposed to producer development timing, shifts between dry-gas and rich-gas acreage and ethane recovery decisions. Even so, the agency views near-term risk as modest because production trends in the Utica Shale remain favorable and the two-venture portfolio provides some operational diversification.Customer and geographic concentration continue to weigh on the credit profile. Both joint ventures operate in Ohio's Utica region, while Ascent Resources is the main customer of the dry-gas venture and the largest customer of the rich-gas venture; the top three customers account for about 70% of the rich-gas venture's revenue.Fitch-calculated weighted average counterparty credit quality stands at BB-, with some improvement from stronger existing customers and new additions. Fitch expects Holdco's debt service coverage ratio to remain at or above 4.0x through the forecast period, supported by steady distributions, modest growth capital spending and an excess cash flow sweep triggered at 3.25x net leverage, though debt-funded bolt-on acquisitions could keep leverage elevated.

Infinity Natural Resources reports $64.4M derivative loss in Q3 2026 - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. recorded a total derivative loss of approximately $64.4 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, according to a company statement. The loss comprised $1.2 million in realized losses from settled derivative contracts tied to crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and regional basis differentials, along with $63.2 million in non-cash mark-to-market unrealized losses on open derivative positions. The unrealized losses reflect the revaluation of outstanding contracts using forward commodity price curves at the end of the reporting period and do not represent cash outflows. The company said the derivative contracts were entered into under a board-approved hedging strategy. As of September 30, 2026, Infinity's open oil (WTI) swap portfolio covering 3,395 thousand barrels had a fair value of negative $44.6 million, while oil collar contracts on 465 thousand barrels carried a fair value of negative $2.2 million. Natural gas swap contracts totaling 144.87 million MMBtu held a fair value of $36.8 million. Natural gas fixed-basis swaps on 14.67 million MMBtu showed a fair value of $9.5 million, while natural gas basis swaps on 76.26 million MMBtu carried a fair value of negative $7.9 million. NGL swap contracts covering 2,348 thousand barrels had a fair value of negative $14.8 million. The company noted that the third quarter financial and operating information is preliminary and unaudited, and final results will be reported in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026. Infinity is an independent energy company focused on hydrocarbon operations in the Appalachian Basin, including the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio and the Marcellus and Utica Shales in southwestern Pennsylvania. Overall Analyst Rating: SELL (= Flat)

CEO Zack Arnold: Infinity Planning on Growth Through 'Inventory Enhancement,' M&A --Brian Waizel, senior editor with Hart Energy, speaks with industry experts at Hart Energy's SUPER DUG 2026. From left: Zack Arnold, CEO, Infinity Natural Resources; Marshall Hunt, chief operating officer, Petro-Hunt. Earlier this year, Infinity Natural Resources closed on a $1.2 billion acquisition of Ohio Utica Shale assets from Antero Resources.

10 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Oct 5 – 11 --- Marcellus Drilling News - - The Marcellus/Utica region received 10 new drilling permits last week, October 5-11, down a big 19 from 29 permits issued two weeks earlier. Pennsylvania issued 7 of the new permits. Ohio issued 2 new permits. And West Virginia issued a single new permit. The drillers who received new permits last week were: Ascent Resources, EQT, PennEnergy Resources, and Range Resources. Beaver County | Belmont County | Butler County | Marion County

SCOTUS to Decide What Pipelines Owe Landowners in Eminent Domain -- Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a case that slipped under our radar, and it shouldn’t have. On Monday, Nov. 9, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, a fight between a group of North Dakota ranchers and an interstate pipeline company. The question sounds dry: when a pipeline company uses eminent domain to take land, does state law or federal law decide how much the landowner gets paid? However, the answer could put money in, or take money out of, the pockets of landowners in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Yesterday, the Court agreed to let the Trump administration take part in the argument, on the side of the pipeline company.

Shell Asks Court to Toss Big Green Cracker Suit: DEP Already Acted -- Marcellus Drilling News - Shell Chemical Appalachia wants a federal judge in Pittsburgh to throw out a lawsuit Philadelphia-based Big Green group Clean Air Council filed more than three years ago over air emissions at Shell’s ethane cracker plant in Monaca (Beaver County), PA. Shell’s main argument is simple: the PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has already gone after Shell for the very same violations, not once but twice, collecting nearly $25 million in penalties and “community” payments. Federal law, says Shell, doesn’t let a private group pile on when the state is already on the case. Shell also argues the Council never showed that a single member was actually harmed. Shell filed its motion last Friday, Oct. 9, and the Council has agreed to pause the case while the judge decides.

Homer City Gas Plant Wastewater Permit Draws Fire at DEP Hearing -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Homer City Energy Campus in Indiana County, PA, will be one of the country’s largest natural gas-fired power plants under construction. It burns Marcellus gas, and it needs a lot of water to keep cool. On Wednesday, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) held a public hearing on a permit change that would let the plant send up to 6.8 million gallons a day of used cooling water into Blacklick Creek. All of the roughly a dozen speakers opposed it. DEP says it will decide before the current permit expires at the end of this year. Here’s what the opponents said, and what DEP’s own paperwork says, which is a different story.

DEP - Day 71: Violations Continue At John D. Branch Conventional Well Site For Failing To Have Adequate Spill Containment Around Tanks Holding 42,000 Gallons On Contaminated Water In Warren County -On October 2, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection of the John D. Branch Brown 1 conventional gas wells site in Pleasant Township, Warren County and found the owner still fails to comply with secondary containment regulations around two storage tanks holding 42,000 gallons of contaminated water from conventional oil and gas wells.DEP issued the original violations for this infraction on July 23, 2026. Read more here.The DEP’s July 23 report on the complaint inspection then said-- “The small upper containment directly around the stock tanks is constructed with a dirt and gravel base and walls, and includes a drain pipe that is directed into a second containment downslope of the upper containment.”The October 2 inspection report noted “some clay material was added” to containment around the tanks, “however the clay is mixed with gravel, is patchy and was inconsistently applied” and fails to meet the regulations. One photo with the inspection report also shows a drain pipe leading away from the secondary containment area. Previous violations were continued and a response was requested by October 27. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 1,916: Monitoring Of Casing/Cement Failure Continues At Expand Operating Lucarino Shale Gas Well Pad In Bradford County - On October 6, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection conducted an inspection of the Expand Operating LLC Lucarino 3H shale gas well in Wilmot Township, Bradford County to monitor casing/cementing failure.DEP originally discovered the casing/cementing failure in the 3H well and issued a violation on July 8, 2021 to the owner for failing to report a defective well.The well was drilled in October 2013. Like many other shale gas wells with casing/cementing failures, DEP continues to regularly monitor these wells to see if there has been any change. Casing/cementing failures can lead to “communication” and contamination of other unconventional and conventional oil and gas wells and with private water supplies.As a result of this inspection, DEP continued the violation again. Click Here for the DEP inspection report.

DEP: Investigation Of A ‘Frac Hit’ Between 3 Seneca Resources Co Shale Gas Well Pads In Middlebury Twp., Tioga County Leads To Contaminated Water Spill -Recent inspections of three Seneca Resource Co LL shale gas well pads in Middlebury Township, Tioga County by the Department of Environmental Protection found the close proximity of horizontal shale gas well drilling and fracking have apparently caused well “communication” (interference) issues.On October 6, 2026, DEP inspected the Seneca Resources Co LLC Bauer 849 shale gas well pad in response to a notification of three contaminated water spills.DEP found a fiber optic cable got stuck down a Bauer gas well during an investigation of a “frac hit’from a well originating at the nearby Taft shale gas well pad in the same township.The pad crew was attempting to remove a section of tubing being used to “fish” out the cable when a valve opened at the end of the tubing and released contaminated water onto the well pad causing two spill incidents.The third spill occurred after a decision was made to pump fluids down the well bore to “kill the well” after the apparent “frac hit.” Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. [Note: The Taft well pad is 713 days into the cleanup of a contaminated water release at the pad. Violations were issued on October 23, 2024 and continued since then. Read more here. [DEP also issued violations to a shale gas well at the Taft pad after evidence was found of continuing casing/cementing failures discovered on Nov. 13, 2024. Violations were issued and continued since then. Read more here.]

DEP: Routine Inspection Finds Overflowing Contaminated Water Tank At Penn View Exploration Conventional Oil & Gas Well In Clearfield County - On October 7, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a routine inspection of the Penn View Exploration Inc. Neff 4 conventional oil and gas well in Burnside Township, Clearfield County and found a contaminated water tank had overflowed.DEP found contaminated water had overtopped the tank and ran down the side of the tank and created a channel of erosion and oil-covered vegetation leading approximately 65 feet downhill. The dump line from the storage tank was also leaking. Field measures confirmed the soil was contaminated. The well owner said the well was shut in and cleanup of the spill will be started the following week. Multiple violations were issued and a response was requested by October 29. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP: Ruptured Underground Gathering Line Releases Crude Oil Near Bull Run Resources Conventional Well In Warren County -On October 9, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected an area near the Bull Run Resources LLC Petersen 416 conventional well in Pleasant Township, Warren County in response to a notification of a crude oil release.DEP found a ruptured underground gathering line released an unknown amount of crude oil to the ground that flowed over the surface and down a slope for about 190 feet and into a woods before ending up in a road ditch.It then continued another 50 feet to the main access road for the well.A cleanup crew was onsite that had installed several barriers to contain the crude oil flow in the ditch and was beginning to remove impacted soil to a dumpster staged at the site.Multiple violations were issued. “Future inspections will be done to document the extent of the release and remediation of the site.”No written response was requested.Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 57: More Water Seeps Break Out From INR OPR LLC Cooper Shale Gas Well Pad Possibly Related To Broken Pad Drainage System In Indiana County, Site Of 336,000 Gallon Frack Water Spill – On October 13, 2026, DEP did a follow-up inspection of the INR OPR LLC Cooper shale gas well pad in Young Township, Indiana County and found new water seeps were coming out of the south slope of the well pad.On October 7, DEP found a series of water seeps coming out of the west slope of the well pad the inspector said were occurring due to “loose connections” in the pad’s water containment system.The system is designed to collect water from the pad and properly manage it before it is released anywhere.INR installed riprap around the seeps on the west slope and a sump for collecting the water that was being released. Read more here. On October 13, the new seeps on the south slope of the well pad were not present in previous inspections. The inspector said the new seeps were “possibly part of the drain issue.” The reason the pad water containment system is important is on August 17, 2026, there was a spill of approximately 336,000 gallons of fracking flowback water onto the pad that flowed off the pad and contaminated about 5.6 acres of fields and woods, according to an INR report. Read more here. It is not known whether the pad drainage system was broken then or functioning, or whether the large spill of contaminated water on the pad and recent rain brought the condition of the water containment system to light.The DEP inspection reports did not describe any efforts by INR to repair the pad water containment system or any direction from DEP to do repairs. Previous violations were continued. No response requested by the pad owner.Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 82: McGuffie Oil Co Inc. Abandoned Conventional Gas Well Still Venting Gas, Creating A Hazard To Health, Safety In Allegheny County - On October 14, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection of the McGuffie Oil Co Inc. Sheridan 1 conventional gas well in Penn Hills Township, Allegheny County and found the well was still venting gas in a hazardous manner close to homes.DEP inspected the well on July 24, 2026 in response to a complaint by the Penn Hills Fire Marshal of leaking gas and issued multiple violations.The well owner failed to submit annual production and waste generation reports since 2004 and well integrity reports since 2013.In the October 14 inspection report, DEP said the “well remains in the same condition/configuration as the initial inspection” on July 24.There is no response from the well owner to the July 24 violations posted online.DEP continued the previous violations and added violations for abandoning and not plugging the well and failure to stop gas venting from the well. DEP requested a written response by October 30. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

Expand’s Susquehanna Week: Minor Pad Fire, New 4-Mile Water Line -- Marcellus Drilling News - Expand Energy’s operating arm made the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) news twice last week, both times in Susquehanna County. One item sounds scary but isn’t: A small “flash fire” inside a compressor building on a well pad, and the equipment put it out before firefighters arrived. The other is a new permit for a 4-mile temporary waterline that will carry fresh water to Expand’s Marcellus wells in Auburn Township. It’s the second such line DEP has OK’d in that township in a month. David Hess at PA Environment Digest Blog flagged both items. Here’s the scoop.

MSC to Allegheny Health Board: Your Own Data Says Shale Is Safe -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last Wednesday, MDN told you about the Allegheny County Board of Health’s latest move against shale drilling (see Antis Cheer as Allegheny Co. Moves to Pull Shale Air Exemptions). Right now, shale well pads in the county don’t need an air permit from the county health department because they’re exempt under Article 21, the county’s air pollution rules. In September, the board voted unanimously to have the health department study getting rid of that exemption. It turns out the industry saw this coming and tried to head it off. The Marcellus Shale Coalition (MSC), the main trade group for Pennsylvania’s shale drillers, sent MDN copies of two letters MSC President Jim Welty sent the board before that vote, one dated Aug. 20 and the other Sept. 15. The letters accuse the board’s “Fracking Committee” of doing its work in the shadows. And they point to something the board seems to want everyone to forget: the county’s own data.

It’s Baaack: Bucks County Climate Lawsuit Gets Appeals Court Hearing -- Marcellus Drilling News - Remember Bucks County, PA’s “sneaky” lawsuit against Big Oil? The one a county judge tossed in May 2025 “with prejudice,” meaning don’t come back? Well, it’s back. Today (Oct. 14), Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court will hear Bucks County’s appeal, which asks the court to bring the dead case back to life. Lined up against the county is an impressive list of “friends of the court,” including Pennsylvania’s own Attorney General Dave Sunday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, the Pennsylvania Manufacturers’ Association, the Pennsylvania Chamber, and our friends at both PIOGA and the Marcellus Shale Coalition. All of them are telling the appeals court the same thing: leave it dead.

3rd Circuit Tosses Riverkeeper Challenge to Transco REA Permits -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Delaware Riverkeeper Network and PennFuture fought for years for the right to challenge Transco’s Regional Energy Access (REA) pipeline permits before Pennsylvania’s Environmental Hearing Board (EHB). They got their wish. Then they lost at the EHB. And yesterday, they lost again in federal court. A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit unanimously upheld the state Department of Environmental Protection’s (DEP) water permits for the Williams-owned pipeline expansion. The court said the groups never showed that the extra water testing they demanded would have changed a thing. Even better, the court handed down a ruling on Pennsylvania’s Environmental Rights Amendment that could make life a lot harder for anti-drillers going forward.

National Fuel announces plans to split into two publicly traded companies - National Fuel Gas Co. plans to separate its natural gas production and gathering operations into an independent, publicly traded company, creating two businesses with distinct growth strategies. The company announced Oct. 14 that its board of directors approved a plan to spin off its Integrated Upstream and Gathering business, known as IUG. The separation is expected to be completed in the second half of 2027, subject to regulatory filings, financing arrangements and other customary conditions. The transaction is intended to be tax-free for National Fuel and its shareholders for federal income tax purposes. Shareholders will receive shares in both companies, with National Fuel planning to distribute at least 80.1% of IUG's shares and retain an ownership stake of up to 19.9%. Following the separation, National Fuel will focus on its regulated natural gas utility, pipeline and storage operations across Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania. IUG will operate as an independent company focused on natural gas production and gathering in the Appalachian region. National Fuel President and CEO David P. Bauer said the company's integrated business model has provided financial and operational benefits over the years, including the ability to fund acquisitions and strategic investments. With the recent completion of its Ohio gas utility acquisition, Bauer said, the businesses have reached a scale that positions them to pursue growth opportunities independently. The separation is intended to give each company greater flexibility in allocating capital, pursuing growth and returning money to shareholders while preserving operational efficiencies and other benefits of the existing business relationships. After the separation, National Fuel expects to have nearly $5 billion in rate base, a measure of the utility assets on which it can earn an authorized return. Its natural gas utilities serve approximately 1.1 million customers across Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania. Its federally regulated pipeline and storage operations are expected to provide nearly 5 billion cubic feet per day of contracted natural gas transportation capacity and 77 billion cubic feet of fully contracted storage services. The company cited infrastructure modernization programs, increasing regional demand for natural gas, and the needs of data centers and power generation as factors supporting future investment in pipeline and storage infrastructure. The company also expects to maintain an investment-grade financial profile and said its current capital plans do not anticipate a need to raise additional equity capital over the next five years. It plans to maintain a capital return policy consistent with other utility companies. The independent IUG company will include approximately 1.2 million net acres in the Appalachian region and net natural gas production of approximately 1.1 billion cubic feet per day. Its wholly owned gathering assets transport most of its production, allowing the business to control costs and improve operating efficiency. IUG has approximately 5 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas reserves and more than 25 years of development inventory, according to National Fuel. The company said IUG has improved capital efficiency by approximately 25% since shifting its development program to its Eastern Development Area in 2023. The improvements have allowed it to generate more production and free cash flow for each dollar invested. IUG is expected to retain its current leadership team, with Justin I. Loweth, president of Seneca Resources and NFG Midstream, becoming CEO of the new company. National Fuel said the separation is intended to give IUG greater flexibility to develop its drilling inventory, manage its capital investments and pursue targeted growth opportunities.

National Fuel Gas Plans 2027 Spinoff to Create Utility and Appalachian Gas Producer - National Fuel Gas NFG plans to separate its integrated upstream and gathering business into a standalone publicly traded company through a tax-free spinoff to shareholders, a transaction the company expects to complete in the second half of calendar 2027. President and Chief Executive Officer Dave Bauer said the separation will create two independent businesses: a fully rate-regulated National Fuel and a new Appalachian natural gas producer and gathering company referred to as IUG. Following the spinoff, existing National Fuel investors are expected to own shares in both companies on a pro rata basis. 3 Dividend Kings With Royally Good Upside The transaction remains subject to customary conditions, including the effectiveness of a Form 10 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission and completion of financing arrangements. National Fuel to Become Fully Regulated Business After the separation, National Fuel will operate as a 100% rate-regulated enterprise with approximately $5 billion of rate base, management said. Its utility operations will serve about 1.1 million customers in Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania, while its FERC-regulated pipeline and storage operations will provide nearly 5 billion cubic feet per day of gas transmission services and 77 Bcf of fully contracted storage capacity. The company expects long-term rate-base growth of 5% to 7% under its current capital-spending plans. Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer Tim Silverstein said National Fuel currently spends about $200 million annually across its New York and Pennsylvania utilities and expects annual investments to nearly double following the addition of its Ohio utility business. National Fuel also said it has 700,000 dekatherms per day of new pipeline capacity under contract, nearly 400,000 dekatherms per day of which is expected to enter service next month. Management cited demand from utilities, data center developers and power-generation facilities as drivers of recent pipeline expansion activity. Bauer said separating the businesses is expected to lower the regulated company’s cost of capital relative to the combined company. He said this could support modernization and expansion projects, affordability efforts and potential future merger-and-acquisition opportunities. The proposed IUG company will include Seneca Resources and NFG Midstream. It currently produces 1.1 Bcf per day of net natural gas and holds 5 trillion cubic feet of proved reserves across 1.2 million net acres in Pennsylvania, according to management. IUG’s acreage includes more than 300,000 acres in its Eastern Development Area, concentrated in Tioga and Lycoming counties, and more than 900,000 acres in its Western Development Area. Justin Loweth, president of Seneca Resources and National Fuel Gas Midstream, said much of the western acreage is owned in fee, meaning the company does not pay royalties and does not face drilling requirements to retain the land. Management said IUG has more than 25 years of prospective Marcellus and Utica drilling inventory at its current pace, with break-even prices below $2.25 per million British thermal units based on NYMEX pricing. The company also owns gathering infrastructure that transports most of its production, which it said supports a low-cost operating structure. Loweth said IUG has approximately 1 Bcf per day of firm transportation capacity to high-value markets and has contracted for another 0.5 Bcf per day expected to enter service over the next several years. The first portion of that capacity, the Tioga Pathway Project, is expected to be available next month. Loweth, who will become chief executive officer of IUG after the separation, said the standalone structure will provide greater flexibility to consider organic and inorganic growth opportunities. He pointed to IUG’s acreage position, production potential and subsurface knowledge in Tioga County as potential advantages. National Fuel intends to retain up to a 19.9% interest in IUG following the spinoff. Silverstein said the company expects to monetize that stake in a tax-efficient manner after the separation and use the proceeds to further strengthen National Fuel’s balance sheet. Management said National Fuel expects to generate free cash flow in most years and does not anticipate a need for incremental equity financing over the next five years. Silverstein said the company expects its credit rating, after monetizing the retained IUG stake, to be two to three notches higher than its current investment-grade rating. IUG is expected to begin with leverage slightly above one times and target a long-term leverage ratio at or below one times. Silverstein said management believes the new company could reach leverage below one times within one or two years after the separation, based on expected free cash flow generation and current natural-gas strip prices. National Fuel expects its dividend to be adjusted to a payout ratio in line with utility peers, while IUG expects to balance free cash flow among balance-sheet optimization, growth investment and share repurchases.

Marcellus-Fed Cove Point Back Online; LNG Feedgas Hits 6-Month High - Good news for Marcellus/Utica drillers and the landowners who collect royalty checks from them: Cove Point LNG, the export terminal in Maryland that runs on our gas, is back in business after its annual 23-day maintenance break. Add the return of a Freeport LNG train in Texas and a record run at the new Golden Pass LNG plant, and U.S. “feedgas” (the natural gas piped into LNG plants to be chilled into a liquid and shipped overseas) jumped to 19.7 Bcf/d on Tuesday, the highest level since April. That’s billion cubic feet per day, for those keeping score at home.

MXP Outage Splits Appalachian Natural Gas Prices, Exposes Winter Basis Risk - NGI chart compares Columbia Gas and Eastern Gas South spot basis prices with TCO MXPSEG natural gas throughput from September to October 2026. Columbia Gas Transmission’s (TCO) Mountaineer XPress (MXP) outage entered a third gas day Friday, splitting Appalachian prices. TCO declared force majeure Wednesday after detecting a leak near West Virginia’s Saunders Creek Regulator Station, cutting MXP segment capacity to zero and affecting an estimated 1.9 million Dth/d of firm service. NGI’s Entropic Analytics data show scheduled flows fell from 1.88 million Dth/d on Tuesday to zero on Thursday and Friday. For Friday gas, NGI’s Columbia Gas basis to Henry Hub strengthened 56.0 cents to minus $1.260/MMBtu, its tightest since the Sept. 25 MXP outage, while Eastern Gas South and Texas Eastern M-2 discounts widened 38.5 and 42.5 cents, respectively.

Mountaineer XPress Leak Sinks Appalachian Gas Price to $1.06 - -- Marcellus Drilling News - On Thursday, physical (spot) natural gas sold at Louisiana's Henry Hub (the national benchmark) went for $3.30 per MMBtu. On the same day, gas sold at Texas Eastern M-2, which is the main price point for gas produced in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, went for $1.055. That's the same molecule of methane, and our version fetched about 32 cents on the dollar. Why? Because a pipeline carrying Appalachian gas out of the region sprang a leak again. Here's what happened, why it matters to your royalty check, and why there's some good news on the horizon.

W. Kentucky Pipeline Wins in Court, Escapes PSC; Farmers Dig In --- Marcellus Drilling News - The long-stalled Pennyrile Energy Corridor, a 53-mile natural gas pipeline planned for western Kentucky, has racked up two big wins since we last checked in. In September, a Kentucky judge ruled that the agency building the pipeline can use eminent domain to get easements from landowners who won’t sign. State lawmakers also moved the project out from under the state’s utility regulator. But a few farmers along the route aren’t budging, and one calls the $4-per-foot offer for his land “ridiculous.”

Northeast Gas Demand Down as Prices Slump | RBN Energy - We are reaching the time of year when the Northeast typically starts getting chilly, but the weather has been mild so far in October. The already low Appalachian cash basis prices have plunged even lower in response. Full cash prices have been punishingly low for the production zone over the week ended October 13, averaging about 85 cents for EGS and 83 cents for TGP Z4 according to Bloomberg data — far below breakevens for even the most well-situated producer. Unlike the futures market, physical trading was closed for Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. That means that cash prices for five of the seven days last week were determined in trading on Friday for Saturday-through-Tuesday delivery. Overall Northeast demand averaged 13.7 Bcf/d during the week ended October 13, down 0.5 Bcf/d week on week. Regional demand, excluding LNG feedgas, was 13.5 Bcf/d, down 0.3 Bcf/d from last year and 0.5 Bcf/d lower than the 5-year average. Power demand decreased by 1 Bcf/d but Res/Comm demand grew by 0.2 Bcf/d and Industrial demand moved up by 0.1 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas at Cove Point made its return on Monday, completing a three-week maintenance outage. The facility goes down for a maintenance of similar length every year, but is back to normal as seen in the dark orange section of the graph above.

Plenty of Gas, Not Enough Pipe: New England January Gas Tops $20 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The rest of the country is heading into winter swimming in natural gas. Production is at record highs, storage is above average, and Henry Hub January futures are trading below $4. Yet traders are paying more than $20 per MMBtu for gas delivered into parts of New England in January. That’s more than five times the national benchmark. The problem isn’t a shortage of gas. It’s a shortage of pipe. New England sits just a few hundred miles from the Marcellus Shale, one of the most prolific gas fields on the planet, but more than a decade of blocked pipeline projects means it can’t get enough of our gas when the weather turns cold.

Power Burn Gains Materializing, but Is Data Center Demand? - Data centers were supposed to be the next big thing for US domestic natural gas demand. So far, power burn data tells a more modest story, while states hosting the buildout are imposing new conditions on developers before much of the anticipated demand materializes. US natural gas power burn rose year/year in four regions through Oct. 14, 2026, led by Mountain at 11.5%, while Pacific fell 6.4%. At a Glance:
Lower 48 power burn up 1.3 Bcf/d
Mountain region power burn jumps 11%
Summer peak burn falls short of 2025

NGSA Winter Outlook: Cheaper Gas, Record Supply, Not Enough Pipes- The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released its 26th annual Winter Outlook yesterday, and the bottom line is music to the ears of anyone who pays a heating bill: NGSA sees “downward market pressure” on natural gas prices this winter compared to last. Henry Hub futures for November through March average $3.43 per MMBtu, down $1.08 (23.9%) from $4.51/MMBtu realized last winter. That’s less happy news for landowners hoping for fat royalty checks. But buried on page 5 of the report is a nugget every MDN reader should notice: last winter, while nearly every other U.S. shale basin grew, Marcellus and Utica production actually shrank. The reason? Pipes. Or rather, the lack of them.

FERC Proposes Dropping Air Modeling for Compressor Stations, LNG -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Thursday took a chainsaw to one of the slowest, most litigated parts of its pipeline review process. In a 4-1 vote, FERC issued a draft policy statement saying it will no longer require pipeline and LNG companies to submit “air dispersion modeling” for new or expanded compressor stations and LNG terminals. Why should Marcellus/Utica folks care? Because nearly every project that moves more of our gas to market, such as Iroquois ExC and MVP Boost, involves building or beefing up compressor stations. Faster approvals mean more pipe, more takeaway capacity, and (eventually) better prices for drillers and royalty owners.

Gulf Coast Turns Down the Volume as U.S. Propane Stocks Roll Lower | RBN Energy -- The EIA reported a 1.5-MMbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 9, lowering stocks to 106.4 MMbbl (red line in the chart below). The draw was about twice the industry-expected draw of 730 Mbbl, ran counter to the average build of 324 Mbbl for the week, and extended the prior week's 1.8-MMbbl draw. Even so, stocks are 4 MMbbl, or 4%, above the same week in 2025 (blue line), 3.2 MMbbl, or 3%, above the five-year maximum, and 13.3 MMbbl, or 14%, above the five-year average (green line).The national totals mask a regional split (see the PADD charts below). PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) accounted for the entire draw, falling 1.9 MMbbl to 66.7 MMbbl, down 3.7 MMbbl from the record 70.4 MMbbl set in late September but still 28% above the five-year average. The more telling trend is in PADD 2 (Midwest). Stocks there peaked at 26.6 MMbbl on August 21 and have slipped about 1 MMbbl since, even as the five-year average climbed 2.9 MMbbl. As a result, Midwest stocks of 25.7 MMbbl are now 887 Mbbl, or 3%, below the five-year average, 5% below last year and just 1.1 MMbbl above the five-year minimum. PADD 1 (East Coast) stocks, at 8.3 MMbbl, are 7% below last year, while PADDs 4 and 5, at 5.6 MMbbl, sit in line with the five-year average. Combined, PADDs 1, 2, 4 and 5 hold 39.6 MMbbl, 1.8 MMbbl, or 4%, below the same week in 2025, leaving the national surplus concentrated on the Gulf Coast heading into the heating season.

Louisiana Natural Gas Premium Holds as Pipes Into Gillis Hub Near Capacity -The clock is ticking for US LNG developers planning the next wave of Gulf Coast terminals to secure firm natural gas transportation into southwest Louisiana as available capacity on existing and sanctioned pipelines serving the key Gillis hub runs thin.NGI chart compares daily natural gas prices at Transco Zones 2 and 3, Katy and Henry Hub from March to October 2026, showing Zone 3 price spikes. At a Glance:
Transco eastbound flows near capacity
Transco Zone 3 premium averages 85.7 cents
Louisiana premium extends along forward curve

U.S. LNG Feedgas Begins to Climb | RBN Energy - U.S. LNG feedgas demand moved higher last week as Freeport and Cove Point returned from maintenance and Golden Pass intake hit a record over the weekend. U.S. LNG feedgas averaged about 18.2 Bcf/d for the week ending October 11 (blue dotted line below), up 0.4 Bcf/d week-on-week.Freeport LNG Train 2 was down for maintenance from October 2-8, but the train has since restarted and feedgas has rebounded. Cove Point has been down for annual maintenance since Sept. 19 and returned to full operations on Monday, October 12.Intake at the commissioning Golden Pass terminal began the week below 300 MMcf/d but reached a record level over the weekend, with feedgas deliveries over 600 MMcf/d from Friday through Sunday. We expect U.S. feedgas to reach record levels this winter.

Cove Point, Freeport Restarts Push US LNG Feedgas Demand to 6-Month High - US LNG feedgas demand climbed to a six-month high Tuesday as Cove Point LNG came back from annual maintenance, Freeport LNG returned to a three-train pace and Golden Pass LNG posted its best five-day run since commissioning began.Entropic Analytics chart compares Lower 48 LNG feedgas deliveries in 2025 and 2026, showing higher US natural gas export demand in 2026.
At a Glance:
Cove Point flows return after 23 days
Freeport back near 3-train rate
Golden Pass holds above 600 MMcf/d

FERC Moves Ahead With Blanket LNG Authorizations as Export Capacity Surges -The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Thursday proposed advancing blanket authorizations for certain activities at LNG projects in a bid to strengthen regulatory certainty and streamline permitting for the sector as US export capacity has grown significantly in recent years. NGI's LNG Export Flow Tracker shows US LNG feedgas deliveries reaching 18.72 million Dth on Oct. 15, 2026, with volumes at nine terminals. At a Glance:

Effort aimed at cutting red tape
Routine upgrades could proceed automatically
3-tier authorization framework proposed

Golden Pass LNG Targets 2027 for 2 Trains as Feedgas Hits New High -Golden Pass LNG expects to bring its second and third liquefaction trains online in 2027, as natural gas deliveries to the Texas export terminal climbed to their highest levels since commissioning began earlier this year. At a Glance:

2 remaining trains targeted for 2027
Feedgas deliveries reach 643 MMcf/d
LNG shipments accelerate since initial startup

Venture Global Eyes AI Data Centers in Expansion of Natural Gas Power Business -Venture Global has signed power agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 new power island units, each with 720 MW of capacity. At a Glance:

Agreements could add up to 10 GW
Existing gas-fired generation totals 4.5 GW
BTM network independent of grid

Tribunal Says Venture Global Stiffed Galp on Calcasieu Pass LNG - Finally, a little justice. An international arbitration panel ruled that Venture Global (VG) breached its contract with Portugal’s Galp by delaying the declaration of its Calcasieu Pass LNG export plant in Louisiana as “commercially operational.” That official start date, called COD (commercial operation date), is what triggers deliveries to long-term customers. For more than three years, VG shipped cargo after cargo of LNG from Calcasieu Pass, much of it sold on the sky-high spot market after Russia invaded Ukraine, all while insisting the plant was still in its “commissioning” (startup) phase. Galp, which signed up in 2018 to buy 1 million tonnes per year (MTPA) of LNG for 20 years, waited. Galp now joins BP as the second customer to beat VG in arbitration. The catch? Galp’s payday is capped at $170 million, and the check won’t be written until after a damages hearing in 2027 or 2028

Oracle’s Project Jupiter Awaits FERC Decision on Natural Gas Lateral - Oracle is pressing federal regulators to expedite approval of a natural gas pipeline that would serve its Project Jupiter data center in southern New Mexico, even as the state’s attorney general seeks a wider environmental review. At a Glance:

Transwestern now targets Feb. 1, 2027 start
Oracle weighs trucked CNG deliveries
Contract starts at 7,000 Dth/d, filing shows

Gas Production High in the Permian and Poised for More Growth | RBN Energy -The Permian Basin rig count jumped up by 4 rigs last week and is at its highest level since June 2025. The strong rig count will set the basin up for additional gas production growth in the coming months. So far this year around 2.3 Bcf/d of new takeaway capacity has come online, and Blackcomb is expected to add an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of capacity by the end of the year. Permian production during the week ended October 12 averaged a record high 23.9 Bcf/d. Gas flows leaving the Permian Basin increased last week, led by a surge in westbound shipments, as shown in the chart above. Deliveries to the West averaged 2.5 Bcf/d, up 0.2 Bcf/d week-on-week, driven by increased volumes on El Paso Pipeline. Westbound flows remain below typical levels for this time of year but are much stronger than in recent weeks. Constraints on El Paso at the California border have limited deliveries to the West despite hot weather in California. Northbound flows averaged 2 Bcf/d, up 0.2 Bcf/d week-on-week, primarily supported by higher volumes on El Paso toward both the Midcontinent and San Juan. Eastbound flows held steady at 14.9 Bcf/d, with strong reported volumes on greenfield pipelines.

Why Mexico’s Natural Gas Demand Boom Matters for US Producers -Click here to tune into the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast featuring Esentia Energy CEO Daniel Bustos, who unpacks the state of Mexican natural gas dynamics and how the country’s supply-demand balance affects the United States and beyond.The cross-border natural gas trade between the United States and Mexico is firing on all cylinders, driven by surging power generation, industrial expansion and the hunt for reliable energy security. Despite near-term price volatility at the Waha header and evolving domestic policy under Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, pipeline flows from West Texas continue to set records as Mexican natural gas demand outpaces broader economic activity. At the same time, mounting geopolitical friction in the Middle East has upended the global LNG market, pushing prices higher amid tightening supply and rising geopolitical risks. The turmoil underscores the importance of reinforcing Mexico’s access to US natural gas for domestic use and west coast exports.

Europe to Delay Methane Rules in Win for US LNG Suppliers -The European Commission (EC) has formally adopted a proposal to postpone by one year certain parts of its far-reaching methane regulations after concerns mounted over how the continent’s top suppliers would comply with them. EU natural gas storage was 73.9% full on Oct. 12, 2026, with 835.59 TWh in inventories, 168.6 TWh below the five-year average. At a Glance:

1-year delay formally proposed
Top suppliers warned of compliance issues
Scope of regulations remains unchanged

Europe Blinks: EU Delays Methane Rules on U.S. LNG Imports a Year - Europe blinked. On Wednesday, the European Commission (the EU’s executive branch) proposed delaying its world-first methane rules for imported oil, natural gas, and coal by one year. The rules were set to kick in on January 1, 2027. Under the new proposal, they won’t start until 2028. That’s good news for U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) exporters, which supply more than half of Europe’s LNG, and, by extension, for the drillers and royalty owners whose gas feeds those export plants. Pressure came from France, the U.S., many EU countries, and the oil and gas industry. Big Green, as you’d expect, is having a meltdown. The delay still needs a thumbs-up from the European Parliament and EU member governments, and some want a longer, three-year pause.

EU Methane Rule Delay Buys Little Time, No Certainty for US LNG -The European Commission’s (EC) proposal this week to delay onerous methane regulations facing the continent’s fossil fuel importers for a year is not enough time to address the complexities of the law and has created more uncertainty, said the head of a leading US LNG trade group. NGI bar chart compares European LNG imports by region of origin across two periods, highlighting differences in supply volumes. At a Glance:

Little progress expected over next year
Trade group urges 3-year delay
Regulations complicating long-term deals

Iran War Escalation Threatens Global Market, Ups Demand for US LNG --Renewed attacks on US allies and commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz this week are threatening global energy supplies anew, with Europe facing rising natural gas prices and a difficult race to replenish storage before winter as shipments from the Persian Gulf grow more tenuous.NGI map of Persian Gulf LNG import and export terminals in Qatar, UAE, Oman and Kuwait, highlighting the Strait of Hormuz shipping route. At a Glance:
War in Middle East intensifies
Persian Gulf energy risk rises
Demand for US LNG strengthens

Diesel prices hold high despite efforts to boost global supplies -Diesel prices remain stubbornly high as inventories sit near historically low levels, despite efforts to ease pressure on refined-fuel markets through emergency stock releases or the easing of restrictions on Russian exports. Wholesale diesel benchmarks in the U.S. and Europe have more than doubled year to date. New York Harbor distillate crack spreads, a key measure of U.S. diesel refining margins, are holding above $100 a barrel, while ICE gasoil crack spreads, the European equivalent, have retreated from recent highs but remain elevated at $78.77 a barrel. The problem isn’t simply expensive crude, but a shortage of refined products. U.S. distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—stood at about 102.6 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 9, according to the Energy Information Administration, down 12% from a year earlier. The shortfall was even more pronounced on the East Coast, where inventories were more than 22% lower than a year earlier. Diesel is a major input for trucking, agriculture, construction and industrial activity, meaning elevated prices can feed into freight charges and the cost of moving goods. U.S. retail prices were about $6.33 a gallon on Friday, down from a record $6.53 last month but still 73% higher than a year ago. Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of refined products, restricted diesel exports this year following Ukrainian attacks on its refineries—a response to Moscow’s continued strikes on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure—while disruptions to key Middle East shipping routes have further tightened the market. U.S. refineries have boosted their diesel exports, but they are running near capacity and are unable to make up for more of the global shortfall. Meanwhile, record freight rates, longer voyages and rising geopolitical risks are driving up the cost of moving crude and refined products between regions, leaving Europe particularly vulnerable as it heads into winter with low petroleum-product and natural-gas inventories. Soaring freight costs are eroding refinery profitability in Europe and Asia, despite elevated diesel crack spreads. According to the International Energy Agency, higher crude delivery weighed on margins outside North America in September, raising the risk that some refiners could cut output and further deepen the global squeeze. Additional supplies or a potential relief of sanctions on Russia might lower some cost pressures, but can’t quickly make up for lost supply to damaged refineries, depleted stocks and disrupted trade routes, according to market watchers. “Policy intervention can provide temporary relief, but there is no silver bullet for diesel,” analysts at Bank of America said. U.S. President Trump’s deal with Russia to temporarily resume diesel exports is unlikely to provide significant price relief, according to energy analysts and traders, who say the volumes involved are too small to ease the global supply squeeze. Trump said Russia had agreed to lift a self-imposed export ban and ship hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel into global markets, with the U.S. suspending sanctions on Russian energy exports for about six months to facilitate the deliveries. But the shipments amount to just over 100,000 barrels a day in October and about 125,000 barrels a day in November, compared with roughly 800,000 barrels a day that Russia exported last year. “It won’t be enough to bring down the price of diesel dramatically,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. The data provider estimates that the global diesel market faces a supply deficit of about 1 million barrels a day. Any relief from resumed exports or a potential easing of sanctions will also depend on whether Russian refineries can increase output without remaining vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. “If Russia could export diesel, it would export diesel,” Brouhard said. “They’re having a hard time getting enough diesel just for their domestic consumption.” Other policy measures offer little more than temporary relief. Europe’s planned release of over 20 million barrels of diesel from emergency stocks through the IEA will bring additional supply to the market in the near term, helping to ease market tightness. However, it also reduces the buffer against future disruptions. In the U.S., tax cuts and regulatory relief could ease the burden on consumers, but also sustain demand and prolong tight market conditions. Restricting distillate exports could help replenish domestic inventories, though it would shift the supply squeeze to trading partners in Europe and Latin America. Inventory draws are projected to accelerate in October as seasonal demand rises and refineries undergo routine maintenance. The approaching Northern Hemisphere winter leaves the market with little margin for error: until refining output recovers, inventories rebuild and shipping risks ease, efforts to lower diesel prices are likely to face significant limits. “A warmer-than-normal winter across Northwest Europe and the U.S. Northeast would clearly provide some relief, particularly if heating demand remains contained,” BofA analysts said. “But the market has increasingly little protection if the weather turns colder.”

Whitmer Declares Energy Emergency, Eases Diesel Rules For Farmers - Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of energy emergency on Oct. 12, citing disruptions to global oil markets from the war in Iran and what she said was the nation's largest year-over-year rise in average gasoline prices in Michigan. The order allows certain farm and logging vehicles to use dyed diesel on public roads. In her emergency order, Whitmer said that Michigan's farmers and loggers are facing record-high diesel prices, slim margins, and sharp market swings, with some costs passed on to consumers. "These industries already purchase and maintain substantial supplies of dyed diesel for off-road equipment. Therefore, granting eligible highway-licensed vehicles temporary access to this fuel would provide immediate relief," she wrote. Her order suspends specific provisions of the Motor Fuel Tax Act that normally bar such use of dyed diesel. Armed conflicts have tightened crude oil supply, driving up prices for both diesel and regular gasoline. The hostilities with Iran, which began at the end of February, have slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the point through which about 25 percent of the seaborne oil trade used to flow, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Shortly after the conflict started in March, diesel prices saw their biggest one-week jump on record. Global diesel markets could remain tight well into next year, with resulting high prices driving inflation and hurting economic growth, as conflicts curb output from the Middle East and Russia, the agency said on Oct. 14. Combined diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia totaled 1.3 million barrels per day in September, the agency said. The average pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States was $4.33 per gallon as of Oct. 14, according to the American Automobile Association. Diesel is much higher, at about $6.30 per gallon, reaching a record high of $6.52 at the end of last month. The emergency order ends when the governor determines the shortage no longer exists, but no later than Dec. 31. Willful interference with the order is a misdemeanor. Whitmer noted she had issued an earlier order in April that suspended Reid vapor-pressure requirements in gasoline and temporarily lowered consumer prices. She wrote that the federal government created the problem and can fix it.

Port of Astoria signs 25-year, $1.8M loan for oil spill cleanup - On Tuesday, Oct. 6, Port of Astoria commissioners passed a motion to sign a 25-year, $1.8 million loan with Business Oregon to pay for the cleanup costs incurred after an oil spill at the port. The spill leaked over 11 tons of waste and 3,249 gallons of oily water into the slipway between Piers 2 and 3, according to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. Starting on May 29, an underwater fuel line, about 12 inches in diameter and 50 feet in length, began leaking oil into the slipway between Piers 2 and 3. Soon, the port received a report from Da Yang, a seafood processor on Pier 2, that they had seen a “small amount” of oil near the pier, according to the port executive director, Will Isom. The report was investigated by port staff and quickly a response was organized, led by GrayMar Environmental Services. The spill had gotten larger and by June 1, members of the Coast Guard and Oregon DEQ were on the scene, finishing up the cleanup efforts. ’ The cleanup effort involved the deployment of over 3,000 feet of “absorbent and containment boom,” a floating barrier designed to corral oil spills. It also required a team of divers to go to the bottom of the slip to cut the remains of the broken pipe away and cap the ends of the line. Isom later said the cleanup was successful with no environmental remediation required by Oregon’s DEQ. The total cost of the cleanup came to about $2.1 million. Port Finance Director Melanie Howard said that insurance paid out $250,000, leaving them with a balance of $1.8 million with GrayMar. “The money would funnel directly to GrayMar,” said Howard. She said the commission’s approval was the final step in initiating the loan and beginning to pay off what was due for the clean up efforts. “The work was done, it was done well,” said commissioner Dirk Rohne. “The port has an obligation to pay the people.” The loan helps spread out the loss over several years, instead of creating a single massive financial impact. Rohne said the next step is to try to find government funding in the form of grants to hopefully recoup the costs.

Starting Here, Starting Now – ONEOK’s Denver Expansion Opens Door to Further Growth to the West | RBN Energy --ONEOK’s recently completed expansion of its Greater Denver refined products pipeline does more than just add 35 Mb/d of capacity to ship jet fuel to Denver International Airport. The midstream giant has larger ambitions for the 230-mile line that originates in Scott City, KS, as it also links Denver to Midcontinent and Gulf Coast supplies and could eventually carry up to 200 Mb/d of refined products. The project sits at the intersection of two increasingly important trends: Large, growing airports are becoming important anchors for new fuel infrastructure, while pipeline developers are looking for ways to push more barrels west into growing (and potentially tighter) markets in the Rockies and beyond. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how ONEOK’s Denver project fits into both trends.First, some background: In July 2024, ONEOK announced its $480 million Denver Expansion project (green-striped line in Figure 1 below). The project extended the company's existing El Dorado-Denver Pipeline, part of its Midcontinent-to-Denver refined products system, from Scott City, KS, to Denver. It used 10- and 16-inch pipeline segments and added pump stations. Randy Lentz, ONEOK’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, said in the company’s Q2 2026 earnings call that it adds capacity in “one of the fastest-growing markets in our footprint and provides a new direct jet fuel connection to Denver International Airport.” The pipeline, which was completed in August and is fully contracted under long-term agreements, is designed with future growth opportunities in mind and can transport a variety of refined products — including jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and renewable fuels — to the Denver airport, which has an existing connection to ONEOK’s nearby Aurora fuel terminal. With the completion of the Denver Expansion project, ONEOK has strengthened a critical fuel corridor and expanded capacity to meet the Denver region's growing energy needs, the company said.ONEOK's Denver project also fits a broader trend in refined products infrastructure: growing airports are becoming important demand anchors for pipeline projects. Large airports offer concentrated, relatively steady jet fuel demand, which has risen with passenger traffic and flight activity. Denver International Airport is a good example. It handled a record 82.4 million passengers in 2025, about 19% more than in 2019, though traffic was essentially flat compared with 2024. It served 4.8 million international passengers and offers 236 nonstop destinations. By land area, it's North America's largest airport and the second-largest in the world. The airport is planning for 100 million passengers a year and says it could eventually top 120 million. Fuel trends point the same way. Denver International Airport’s FY2024 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report shows aviation fuel tax revenue of $33.4 million in 2024. Revenue dipped from 2023 as jet fuel prices fell, but the airport says gallons sold kept rising; it doesn't give the volumes. Looking ahead, RMI, a Colorado-based research non-profit, projects total fuel demand at DEN — the airport code for the Denver airport — of about 604 million gallons (MMgal/yr) by 2030, or roughly 39 Mb/d. RMI says the airport accounts for 54% of the Rocky Mountain region’s jet fuel demand. In January, DEN Fuel Co., the airlines' fuel consortium at the airport, cut the ribbon on two new 120-Mbbl jet fuel tanks, adding to the six 65-Mbbl tanks in the airport's original fuel farm. The new pipeline also diversifies Denver's fuel supply. Suncor's roughly 100-Mb/d Commerce City, CO, refinery provides about one-third of the airport’s jet fuel, leaving the airport vulnerable if the refinery is down for maintenance or has an outage. In May, a third-party power outage forced an unplanned shutdown at the refinery, the second electrical-related shutdown in a month. The airport reported no fuel-supply disruptions.Denver isn’t alone. Other major airports have added jet fuel storage or are anchoring new pipeline projects to support reliable supply. Flint Hills Resources is building the BATX Pipeline, a 20-mile, 10-inch line from Bastrop, TX, to Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. It's about half built and should be running in 2027. It's expected to move more than 600,000 gallons of jet fuel a day (about 14 Mb/d). The airport currently needs about 700,000 gallons of jet fuel (about 17 Mb/d), nearly all of it delivered by truck.The airport connection is only half the story. The Denver Expansion project also fits into a broader reshuffling of U.S. refined product flows, with growing volumes moving west from the large refining centers in the Midcontinent (PADD 2) and Gulf Coast (PADD 3) into the Rockies (PADD 4) and, ultimately, the West Coast (PADD 5). The Denver line gives ONEOK an expandable route into that changing market, and the company sees the 35-Mb/d startup as just the beginning. Sheridan Swords, ONEOK Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, said in the company’s Q2 2026 earnings call that the new 16-inch line has “upwards of possibly 200 Mb/d of capacity” and is currently running 35 Mb/d today. “We’ve seen for a period of time that PADD 4 could need more volume going forward, and that could be supplied by this pipeline,” he said. That matters as California loses refining capacity (see It’s Time to Go) and other projects look to push Rockies barrels farther west (more on these below; also see One Thing Leads to Another). Swords pointed to “some talk of some projects getting into Salt Lake City,” and said ONEOK expects to play a part because it can get capacity there “the cheapest and the quickest, as we have set that pipeline up for expansions going forward.” If Rockies supply starts flowing west, ONEOK’s line is positioned to bring more Midcontinent barrels into the region to backfill. Swords said bringing the pipeline online was “very critical to us to … be able to supply that growing demand in PADD 4.” There are several projects moving refined products west, but each one is a different way of solving the same emerging imbalance. Together, they form a proposed set of east-to-west refined products corridors (see Figure 2 below) that would link Midcontinent and Gulf Coast refining capacity with demand centers in the Rockies and Southwest.

Sun Belt Connector. ONEOK announced an open season for the project in September 2025. It’s a proposed 440-mile, 24-inch greenfield pipeline (orange-dashed line in Figure 2 above) from El Paso, TX, to Phoenix, AZ. It would tie into ONEOK's extensive pipeline network serving refineries in Texas and Oklahoma. Initial capacity would be 200 Mb/d, with startup targeted for 2029, but the project still needs more shipper support.
Western Gateway. Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan proposed Western Gateway in October 2025. It reached a final investment decision (FID) on August 11, with HF Sinclair joining as a 15% partner. The $5 billion, 1,300-mile system is designed to move 230 Mb/d of refined products from St. Louis and Gulf Coast origins to Phoenix and on into California, with access to Las Vegas through Kinder Morgan's CALNEV line. Its centerpiece is about 900 miles of new 20- and 24-inch pipe (yellow-dashed line) from Borger, TX, to Phoenix. The rest of the system uses existing infrastructure, including Kinder Morgan's SFPP East Line from El Paso to Phoenix and Tucson, and a reversed SFPP West Line that would move product from Phoenix into California. Startup is targeted for 2029.
HF Sinclair. In October 2025, HF Sinclair said it was studying a multi-phase expansion of its refined products network across PADD 4 and into PADD 5. Phase 1 would expand the Pioneer Pipeline (green-dashed line) from the company's Sinclair, WY, refinery to Salt Lake City and debottleneck the UNEV Pipeline (purple line) from Salt Lake City to Las Vegas. Together, those steps would add about 35 Mb/d of Rockies supply into Nevada. The company now targets a 2029 startup and still expects to reach FID on Phase 1 by the end of 2026. Later phases could reverse and expand the Medicine Bow Pipeline (blue line) to run from Denver to Sinclair, further expand Pioneer and UNEV, and add a new lateral from Salt Lake City to Reno. A full buildout could deliver up to 150 Mb/d.

The Denver Expansion project does two jobs at once. It gives Denver International Airport a direct jet-fuel connection and an additional supply route. Over the longer term, it gives ONEOK an expandable path into PADD 4, where prices have been climbing relative to PADD 2. With the 35 Mb/d of capacity expandable to as much as 200 Mb/d, ONEOK has room to backfill more barrels from the Front Range/Denver market as Western markets tighten. That makes the project both a fix for today's airport supply and a foothold for the westward shift that's reshaping refined products flows.

How Will I Know – Will a Newly Sanctioned Pipeline Give the Bakken a Big Surplus of Gas Takeaway? | RBN Energy -The developer of a planned natural gas pipeline across North Dakota has reached a final investment decision (FID) after securing long-term, demand-side commitments for almost all its 1.4 Bcf/d of capacity. The question is, with crude oil-focused drilling activity in the Bakken flat despite elevated WTI prices, will WBI Energy’s roughly $3 billion Bakken East Pipeline leave the play with way too much gas takeaway space? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the pipeline project, the financial support the state of North Dakota is providing, and the conflicting forecasts for crude oil and associated gas production in the Bakken. Over the past 15 years we’ve written frequently about the ongoing need to build more midstream infrastructure to serve Bakken production. Crude oil gathering systems and takeaway pipelines. Crude-by-rail terminals. Gas gathering systems and gas processing plants. And, most recently, natural gas and NGL pipelines. Why? Because while Bakken oil production has been holding steady at about 1.2 MMb/d — well below the play’s 1.5-MMb/d peak in 2019 — a fast-rising gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) has increased the volumes of NGLs-rich associated gas being produced. (More on Bakken GORs and the play’s gas production outlook in a moment.) We covered the NGL-pipeline angle in July 2025’s Two Gunslingers. That same month we told the gas-pipeline story in Torn Between Two (Pipelines), which focused on competing proposals by WBI Energy (the Bakken East Pipeline) and a combo of Intensity Infrastructure Partners and Rainbow Energy Center (the Intensity Pipeline) to develop new gas takeaway capacity from the Bakken production region in western North Dakota to the Fargo area at the eastern edge of the state. In a twist we discussed in that blog, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) — eager to encourage more in-state use of the Bakken’s gas bounty — undertook a competitive evaluation process to determine which pipeline proposal would receive up to $500 million in state support via a 10-year, $50 million/year commitment for about 150 MMcf/d of capacity on the new pipe.The three-member NDIC, comprised of the state’s governor, attorney general and agriculture commissioner, in August 2025 unanimously picked WBI Energy’s two-phase, 343-mile Bakken East proposal (dashed pink and red lines in Figure 1 below), citing the company’s experience in developing and operating gas pipelines and the financial strength of WBI’s corporate parent, Bismarck, ND-based MDU Resources, which also owns four electric and/or gas utilities from Minnesota to Washington state. In addition, the commission determined that WBI was more likely to secure the commercial commitments needed to make the project a “go.”WBI Energy held a binding open season for Bakken East in February and March; the response was strong, especially from power generators and industrial customers. The company also initiated the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) process — the pipeline needs FERC approval because it interconnects with the existing WBI Pipeline System (blue lines), which moves Bakken gas across state lines. [WBI is preparing its formal Section 7(c) application and expects the commission’s thumbs-up in 2028.]Finally, on September 30, MDU Resources’ board of directors announced that it had reached FID on WBI Energy’s Bakken East Pipeline, noting that while the facility would have an initial capacity of 1.4 Bcf/d, the project “is being designed with the flexibility to accommodate anticipated future growth.” MDU President and CEO Nicole Kivisto said the new pipeline “will serve the growing demand for natural gas transportation, enable production from the Bakken region to serve customers in central and eastern North Dakota, and further enhance the security and reliability of our existing pipeline system.”The 135-mile first phase of Bakken East will start in McKenzie County, the heart of the Bakken production area, and run to the Mercer County/Oliver County line near the center of North Dakota. That section’s pipe will have a diameter of 42 inches; 12 to 14 miles of laterals off the mainline will be 24 to 30 inches in diameter. WBI Energy expects to complete Phase 1 in late 2029. The pipe on the 208-mile second phase of the project, which will run from the Oliver County line to the Fargo area, will telescope down to 36 inches and then 30 inches; 7 to 9 miles of laterals off the Phase 2 mainline will be either 20- or 24-inch pipe. WBI expects to finish the second phase in late 2030.One more thing to note about Bakken East: Unlike the “supply-push” gas pipeline projects that dominated in the Bakken in the early years of the Shale Era, WBI Energy’s new pipeline is decidedly a “demand-pull” project — that is, the vast majority of the entities committing to take capacity on Bakken East are North Dakota gas customers/users and not Bakken gas producers. For example, a few days after WBI took FID on the new pipeline, Minnkota Power Cooperative, a generation and transmission co-op that provides power to 11 distribution co-ops in North Dakota and Minnesota, confirmed to a local newspaper that it plans to construct a $1 billion, 400-megawatt (MW) power plant in Cass County, ND — home to Fargo itself — and added that the project would not have been possible without Bakken East. Several local gas distribution utilities have also signed up for space on the new pipeline. But “how will I know” whether Bakken East will provide more incremental takeaway capacity than the Bakken will need? Forecasts of Bakken crude oil and gas production vary widely, with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority (NDPA) taking a more optimistic view and Novi Labs — an AI-driven analytics firm (and RBN’s corporate parent) — anticipating a likely decline in Bakken crude output and flat-at-best gas production in the play going forward. As shown in the upper graph in Figure 2 above, the NDPA sees the Bakken’s GOR (gray line) rising from the current 3.1 — that is, 3.1 Mcf of gas for every barrel of crude oil — to more than 4 by 2030 and 4.5 in the late 2030s. The agency’s “Base” case shows crude oil production staying close to flat through the mid-2030s and natural gas production (gray line to the right of dotted vertical line in lower graph) increasing to more than 4 Bcf/d in the early 2030s and approaching 5 Bcf/d in the late 2030s. Even NDPA’s “Low” case for gas production (red line in lower graph), based on a forecast of lower WTI prices and gradually declining oil output, has gas topping 4 Bcf/d in the early 2030s.In sharp contrast, Novi Labs sees Bakken crude oil production declining by 38% to 49% by 2035 if WTI prices stay rangebound between $50 and $90/bbl. Under that price-range scenario, Bakken gas production falls by 10% to 25% over the next nine years (purple, dark-blue, and gold lines in Figure 3 below). In Novi Labs’ view, Bakken gas production will rise only if WTI prices stay reliably in triple-digit territory — the green line shows gas output increasing to 4 Bcf/d in 2030 if WTI settles at $120/bbl. (Note: Novi Labs’ Bakken inventory models the Middle Bakken and Three Forks formations, where it sees most operators targeting their future development.)From Novi Labs’ perspective, the problem is that — based on its machine learning-based analysis of the Bakken’s underlying rock — many of the play’s best locations have already been drilled, and that producers could not economically justify developing most of the remaining locations unless WTI stays north of $90, $100 or even $110/bbl.If the NDPA’s forecast is closer to the mark, it seems likely that most of the gas takeaway pipelines out of the Bakken would stay full (or close to it) over the next few years, and that no additional gas pipelines beyond Bakken East would be needed unless WTI prices really took off. However, if Novi Labs has a better handle on what’s ahead, at least a few Bakken takeaway pipelines may experience declining volumes over time as Bakken East — newly committed to by power-generation and other downstream customers — remains closer to full.

U.S. methane emissions flatline, despite increases in oil and gas production - Methane emissions from the oil and gas sector held steady in the United States even as oil and gas production increased during a recent period of heightened regulations, according to new research from Johns Hopkins University. One reason: companies have built more infrastructure needed to better capture methane—a vital component of natural gas—and transport it for sale as fuel, providing a financial incentive to limit the amount escaping into the atmosphere. The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, is part of an effort to determine whether federal greenhouse gas legislation and mandates have meaningfully decreased methane emissions. "This is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that emissions have not markedly increased, as many scientists feared would happen after an enormous increase in natural gas production in the decades following the hydraulic fracturing boom," said senior researcher Scot Miller, an associate professor of environmental health and engineering at Johns Hopkins University who studies greenhouse gases. "The bad news is that oil and gas production is still a large percentage of U.S. methane emissions, and we do not find any evidence that a flurry of federal legislation had an impact on emissions." Nearly 30 times more potent and with a shorter lifespan than carbon dioxide, methane is widely regarded as the second most important greenhouse gas to target for emissions monitoring and reduction, Miller said. In 2021, the Environmental Protection Agency restarted the process of developing rules to address methane emissions under the Clean Air Act. Congress later enacted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which established fees for methane emissions from oil and gas facilities and allocated more than $1 billion in technical support to the oil and gas sector. While short-lived, the regulations were an unprecedented push toward reducing one of the major contributors to climate change, the researchers said. To assess the efficacy of the policies, the researchers combined satellite data with atmospheric modeling to estimate where emissions from the oil and gas sector occurred in the U.S. and how large they were for the years bookending the legislative activity: 2019–2024. The researchers used data from Europe's space-based TROPOMI instrument and GOSAT satellite, which observe the amount of methane in the air at many locations across the globe. Then, because methane can be blown around by wind and other elements, the researchers developed an algorithm that traced the gas in the atmosphere back to its sources on the ground. Total methane emissions from oil and gas activities for the contiguous U.S. remained between 9.3 teragrams and 10.4 Tg each year. Emissions decreased by 0.58 Tg from 2019–2023, but rose slightly from 2023–2024. However, the intensity of emissions—the amount of methane emissions relative to oil and gas production—decreased by about 11%, representing the continuation of a decades-long trend rather than a significant drop in emissions, the researchers said. "We don't see a detectable decrease in emissions after the Inflation Reduction Act," said Ao Chen, a Ph.D. student at Johns Hopkins and first author of the paper. "Of course, there's no way to test the counterfactual. It's possible that without the Inflation Reduction Act, methane emissions would be much higher." The gradual decrease in emissions intensity may reflect better industry practices as methane transitioned from a side product of oil extraction to a valuable consumer product, the researchers said. When there is no pipeline to bring natural gas from the well to market, drilling companies have less incentive to prevent leaks and instead flare the gas to get rid of it. When pipeline infrastructure became available in regions like West Texas, that gas moved to market, and consumers began using it for heating, cooking, powering certain appliances and generating electricity. Evidence from other studies suggests that leaks decline when gas becomes a valuable commodity. Additionally, oil and gas companies have been updating and improving their infrastructure. "Better industry protocols and less flaring have likely helped gradually curb emissions intensity even as gas and oil production have increased," Miller said.

US Crude Oil Inventories See Massive Drop Off -- The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by a massive 11.12 million barrels in the week ending October 9. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.09 million barrels. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost more than 51 million barrels over the last 26 weeks, but US crude inventories are at roughly the same level as they were at the beginning of the year, according to API data, kept in check in part thanks to draws from the SPR. For the week ending October 9, no barrels left the SPR to aid commercial inventories, keeping the total inventory held in the SPR at 283 million barrels—a level that is still 431 million barrels shy of maximum capacity. The generally accepted operational minimum for oil in the SPR is between 250-300 million barrels, below which the reserve may find it difficult to pump and process oil efficiently. US production for the week ending Oct 2 rose to 13.979 million bpd, up from 13.955 in the week prior, and up 350,000 bpd from a year earlier. At 4:39 pm ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading up on the day at $106.02 (-0.12%). Brent is trading up $5 per barrel from this time last week. WTI was trading up on the day by $0.93 per barrel (+0.98%) at $95.75, which is up nearly $6 per barrel since this time last week. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million during the week ending October 7. In the week prior, gasoline inventories fell 1.37 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories fell 1.5 million barrels after rising 461,000 barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were 12% below the five-year average heading into this reporting period, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—gained 1.823 million after gaining 866,000 barrels in the previous week.

The IEA wants to empty its oil reserves faster. A federal watchdog says the US isn’t ready for what comes next - Governments are tapping their emergency oil faster than ever, and the room to keep doing so is shrinking. On Oct. 7, member governments of the International Energy Agency backed speeding up the oil stock releases they pledged under the agency’s March 2026 Collective Action, aiming to finish them as soon as possible. They also agreed to prioritize diesel, given how tight that market has become. According to Reuters, JPMorgan analysts read the move as an acceleration of barrels already promised, not a fresh intervention.The March action was historic on its own. In response to the Iran war and the disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, IEA members agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil available to the market. It was only the sixth collective action since the agency’s founding in 1974, and by far the largest.Seven months later, the buffer is visibly thinner. IEA governments still hold roughly 1.1 billion barrels of publicly held emergency stocks, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel, the agency says. In March, that figure was more than 1.2 billion barrels. Including company inventories, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser estimated this week that more than 1 billion barrels have been pulled from stockpiles worldwide.The IEA’s move followed an Oct. 2 videoconference of G7 leaders convened by French President Emmanuel Macron. In a joint statement, leaders said they had agreed on coordinated measures to “stabilize immediate energy supplies, shield households and businesses from price shocks.”The core of the plan is a coordinated release of 100 million barrels through the IEA over four months, with a large share of diesel front-loaded into the first 20 days. The G7 also pledged to stagger refinery maintenance so plants don’t go offline at the same time. Members said they would push refiners to run harder where feasible and encourage countries with significant refining capacity to boost diesel output. They also reaffirmed that they would not restrict energy exports among themselves.Diesel is the pressure point. Damage to refineries and disrupted shipping from the wars in Iran and Ukraine have pushed diesel to record highs in many markets, feeding directly into trucking, farming, and freight costs. On Sunday, IEA executive director Fatih Birol wrote to member governments ahead of the agency’s Oct. 15 governing board meeting. He urged all of them, including those that have already completed their pledged releases, to consider whether more diesel needs to come out of storage.In the U.S., the strain is showing in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Trump administration began a 172-million-barrel emergency release in March as its share of the IEA effort. The SPR has since fallen to about 284 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982, and is on track to drop to roughly 243 million once the final barrels are delivered. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has warned that drawing the reserve down too far could damage the salt caverns where the oil is stored. That is a sharp reversal from the administration’s earlier pledge to refill the SPR “right to the top.” - A report from the Government Accountability Office, published in May and released publicly in June, suggests the problems run deeper than inventory levels. GAO found that DOE has released more than 500 million barrels of crude from the SPR since 1985, more than half for emergencies such as wars. Nearly 70% of all releases occurred between 2014 and 2025. Before this year, the largest drawdown on record was the 180-million-barrel emergency sale in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. That pace has collided with aging infrastructure. GAO found that investment in the reserve isn’t keeping up with its needs, leaving a growing maintenance backlog. DOE itself has warned that aging equipment will increasingly limit the SPR’s ability to carry out fill or drawdown orders.The bigger gap, GAO argues, is strategic. DOE hasn’t completed a long-term review of the SPR since 2016, and Congress has never set a target size.“Without an updated long-term plan or target size for the SPR, DOE and Congress are making operational and investment decisions amidst uncertainty about what the SPR is capable of at present, what it should be capable of in the future to meet changing U.S. needs and obligations, and what investments and other actions may be required to bridge any gaps,” the report states.GAO urged Congress to require DOE to complete long-term SPR plans on a set timeline. It also recommended that DOE reassess the technical criteria governing how fast the reserve can be drawn down and refilled. DOE concurred with the recommendations.Under IEA rules, member countries must hold oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. Net exporters are exempt. Governments have wide latitude in how they meet that obligation, using some mix of government-held reserves, dedicated stockholding agencies, and stocks that industry is required to keep.The harder question is how and when those stocks get rebuilt. The G7 asked the IEA to deliver a follow-up report within 20 days with recommendations to improve future responses, including how to replenish stocks. IEA governments will review the situation again at the Oct. 15 governing board meeting.Refilling won’t be cheap or quick. Analysts have noted that governments rebuilding their reserves after the war, possibly to levels above where they stood before it, would create a new layer of oil demand on top of normal consumption. That could keep prices elevated long after the shooting stops.For now, governments are leaning on a cushion they’ve already worn thin. As the IEA put it, it stands ready to release more “if and when required.” The question is how much is left to give.

Castles Made of (Oil) Sand – Cenovus/Athabasca Deal Extends Trend in Canada’s Booming Oil Sands | RBN Energy -Over the past 10-plus years, there’s been an extraordinary consolidation among producers in Alberta’s booming oil sands region, most of it tied to building inventory, increasing efficiency and maximizing free cash flow. Now, with Cenovus Energy’s planned multibillion-dollar acquisition of Athabasca Oil Corp., more than 90% of oil sands production — 93% to be exact — will be owned by only five companies: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL), Suncor Energy, Cenovus, Imperial Oil, and ConocoPhillips. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the recently announced deal and ask whether the golden era of M&A up north is finally petering out.Over the past few years, we’ve blogged frequently about the Pac Man-like phenomenon of extra-large North American oil and gas producers gobbling up large competitors and becoming ever-bigger in the process. This has been especially true in the Permian Basin, the U.S.’s premier hydrocarbon play — a classic example being Pioneer Natural Resources’ $7.6 billion acquisition of Parsley Energy and $6.4 billion purchase of DoublePoint Energy (both in 2021), which were followed by ExxonMobil’s record-breaking $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer itself three years later. Other Permian producers have opted for a “ground game” — that is, foregoing splashy, big-dollar deals in favor of dozens, or even hundreds, of smaller transactions to gain heft nibble by nibble instead of gulp by gulp. (Permian Resources is a case in point; it reportedly added 30,000 net acres last year through about 700 transactions!) Up in the Alberta oil sands, the consolidation among E&Ps we’ve all witnessed since the mid-2010s results from a combination of small, medium and large transactions — the last of these exemplified by Cenovus Energy’s October 5 announcement that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Athabasca Oil via a cash-and-stock deal valued at CAD$5.7 billion, or USD$4 billion.Before we get to the details of that transaction, though, let’s take a big-picture look at Alberta oil sands consolidation since 2015. Back then, when oil sands bitumen production from mining and thermal projects averaged less than 2.3 MMb/d, 30 producers held a working interest in one or more oil sands production areas, and the Top 5 — at that time (in order), Suncor, CNRL, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and Shell — accounted for only 68% of production. Since then, through scores of transactions, more than 20 companies have exited the oil sands (see Figure 1 below) and five new players have joined the fray.Many that are left are minor players whose names most wouldn’t recognize, but several others are very well known, including:

Shell, which owned 147 Mb/d of production in the oil sands in 2015, but sold the vast majority of its holdings there to CNRL in 2017 and turned over the rest to the same E&P in 2025. (Shell still holds 20% stakes in the Scotford Upgrader, which processes raw bitumen into synthetic crude oil, and in the Quest Carbon Capture & Storage Facility, as well as 100% of its adjacent Scotford refinery and associated petrochemical assets.)
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. (COS), with 111 Mb/d of 2015 production, was acquired by Suncor in 2016.
Devon Energy, with 87 Mb/d of oil sands output 11 years ago, sold its assets there to CNRL in 2019.
MEG Energy, with 80 Mb/d of oil sands production in 2015, was acquired by Cenovus in 2025. (More on that in a moment.)
Chevron and Marathon Oil, each producing 48 Mb/d in the oil sands back in the day (from their 20% interests in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, or AOSP), each sold their assets there — Marathon in 2017 and Chevron in 2024. (CNRL now owns 100% of AOSP’s bitumen production.)

Other well-known producers leaving the oil sands over the past 11 years include Equinor (assets sold to Athabasca Oil in 2016); Murphy Oil (sold its 5% Syncrude stake to Suncor in 2017); Husky Energy (acquired by Cenovus in 2021); BP — a minor non-operated player in the oil sands that got out in 2022 by turning over its assets to Cenovus and CNRL; and TotalEnergies, which exited in 2023 when it sold its half of Surmont to ConocoPhillips and its 31% stake in Fort Hills to Suncor. Figure 2 below shows the net result of all that change — that is, the 12 current/pro forma bitumen producers in the Alberta oil sands, with Cenovus’s and Athabasca Oil’s 2025 working interest bitumen production (596 Mb/d and 36 Mb/d, respectively) combined to reflect their planned combination. As you can see, Suncor leads the pack, with 948 Mb/d of bitumen production last year, followed by CNRL (911 Mb/d), Cenovus/Athabasca Oil (632 Mb/d), Imperial Oil/Exxon Mobil (550 Mb/d), and ConocoPhillips (146 Mb/d). Other significant players include China’s CNOOC (104 Mb/d) and Strathcona Resources (61 Mb/d), which began acquiring oil sands assets in 2019. [Strathcona also has significant steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) bitumen production in Saskatchewan.] As you can see, all of the current Top 5 except ConocoPhillips have shown major gains in production since 2015, mostly via acquisitions but also through organic growth. Despite its total bitumen production not having changed much, ConocoPhillips has undertaken a drastic change in its oil sands portfolio, having sold 50% of Foster Creek and Christina Lake to Cenovus in 2017 and then in 2023 buying the other 50% of its Surmont project from TotalEnergies. Together, the five E&Ps accounted for 93% of 2025 Alberta oil sands bitumen production from mining and thermal projects, which exceeded 3.4 MMb/d; the same five accounted for only 68% of output 11 years ago. While the number of oil sands production owners dropped from 30 in 2015 to 12 following the Cenovus/Athabasca Oil deal, the number of operators will have more than halved, from 23 in 2015 to 11 following the deal.

USGS Finds 9 Tcf in Quebec Utica; New PQ Govt Will Keep It Buried - The U.S. Geological Survey has put a number on the shale gas sitting under Quebec's St. Lawrence Lowlands: 9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), technically recoverable, in the Canadian portion of the Utica Shale. That's real gas, in a province that imports every molecule it burns. Unfortunately, the USGS estimate landed just days before Quebec voters elected a new government that has no intention of letting anyone touch it. On Monday (Oct. 5), the Parti Québécois (PQ) won a minority government, the drilling-curious Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) was wiped out entirely, and the only party campaigning openly for Utica development, the Quebec Conservatives, finished third.

Record Tanker Rates Leave Heavy Crude Stranded in the Americas - The Middle East crisis has driven tanker rates to all-time highs and created a shortage of vessels. This oil logistics problem is now causing a ripple effect, tipping the heavy crude market in North and South America into oversupply—while Asia and Europe grapple with a shortage of heavy grades.Canada is producing over 5 million barrels of crude daily, most of it heavy crude. Some 4 million barrels daily of that goes south to U.S. refineries. Venezuelan production has also moved higher after the U.S. disposed of the country’s government and took control of the oil industry. According to Reuters, a lot of this heavy crude is stuck at home because of the record freight costs that have dampened appetite, pressuring prices in Canada, Colombia, and Ecuador. Venezuelan crude goes mostly to the U.S. Gulf Coast, so it is not as vulnerable to freight rate developments.Prices for Canadian, Colombia, and Ecuadorian heavy crude have all shed some $10 per barrel in recent weeks, the report said, citing Argus data. All the flagship grades are now trading at the lowest in six weeks, with Western Canadian Select reaching $74 per barrel last week, before rebounding to $79.50 at the time of writing.Ecuador’s flagship heavy crude grade, Oriente, has also recovered, after dropping to $76 per barrel last week, now trading at over 84 per barrel. Colombia’s Vasconia was the most expensive of the three last week, trading at $84 per barrel, and it has also probably gone up this week, as all oil gains on the flurry of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.These prices cited above seem quite enticing on a market where Russian Urals fetches close to $120 per barrel, and Iran Light sells for $104 per barrel, despite the U.S. Navy blockade. However, these prices exclude freight costs and insurance, and these have reached up to $40 per barrel of crude, at a time when heavy crude is in especially strong demand because of the global diesel crunch. Heavy crude yields more diesel than lighter grades, which is quite a hot topic right now.“You need a ship and the price of ships are going up, and the availability ships are going down,” TP ICAP analyst Scott Shelton told Reuters. Global tanker rates have soared this year due to Middle Eastern producers taking to ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. For this, they use shuttle tankers, including smaller carriers, to sneak the oil through Hormuz and then load it on supertankers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, supertanker rates from the Gulf to Asia hit $1.4 million daily earlier this month.Shipping costs on the route from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe, meanwhile, have surged to $46 million in total, equal to $24.50 per barrel of crude. That compares to $6.5 million, or some $4 per barrel, before the war. The price is even higher on the route from the Americas to Asia, at over $80 million or $40 per barrel. It is little wonder why refiners in Europe and Asia are balking at the price and staying away from purchases. This combination of factors suggests that the diesel crunch is not about to go away anytime soon. With heavy crude barrels stuck in the Americas because of freight costs, and few alternative suppliers of the same scale as Canada, for example, the market imbalance appears set to stay for a while. As long as there are so many vessels tied up in ship-to-ship transfers, freight costs are unlikely to move down meaningfully enough to stimulate cross-Atlantic demand for more heavy crude.

Norway Expands European Natural Gas Supply as LNG Prices Jump Ahead of Winter - Norwegian natural gas exports to Europe are running ahead of last year’s pace heading into winter with the Nordic country’s largest oil and gas producer expanding its supply commitments with another five-year agreement covering nearly 1 Bcm annually. At a Glance:

Norwegian pipeline exports exceed 2025 levels
Equinor boosts Dutch natural gas commitments
Offshore maintenance completed ahead of winter

Japan sending expert team to aid in Oriental Mindoro oil spill cleanup – The Japanese government is sending oil control experts from its coast guard to aid in Philippine efforts to respond to the oil spill in Oriental Mindoro. Japanese Ambassador Kazuhiko Koshikawa made the announcement on Wednesday, March 8, saying that experts arriving include those who specialize in oil removal and control.“We are one with you in these trying times,” Koshikawa said. Coastal communities are among those hardest hit by a February 28 oil spill, where a tanker carrying 800,000 liters of industrial oil capsized off the coast of Naujan. Philippine authorities have since been racing to contain the damage that has so far affected 76 barangays in nine towns.The oil spill has put at risk more than 30 of Oriental Mindoro’s marine-protected areas, and also threatens other provinces, such as Antique in Western Visayas.The Department of Environment and Natural Resources raised concerns over the potential effects on protected areas, including the Verde Island Passage, a center of marine biodiversity.Residents also face health risks from exposure to the oil spill.On Wednesday, Koshikawa said members of Japan’s disaster relief expert team were already en route to the Philippines.The oil spill in Oriental Mindoro is the seventh in the Philippines since 1999.

Indonesia completes oil spill response Marpolex 2026 in N. Sulawesi - The Jakarta Post -Indonesia has completed on Monday a five-day joint oil spill response drill in North Sulawesi involving Japan and the Philippines, dubbed the Marine Pollution Exercise (Marpolex) 2026. “Marine pollution handling exercise Marpolex 206 was successfully carried out on Lembeh Strait in Bitung, North Sumatra,” Sea and Shipping Guard Unit (KPLP) acting director Triono said in Jakarta on Sunday, as quoted by antaranews.com. “The exercise covered three scenarios of oil spill response operation, fire fighting and search and rescue.” Triono said that a total of 21 ships from various agencies in Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan participated in the exercise to test their operational readiness, cooperation and joint response in facing marine pollution incident. The Philippine Coast Guard deployed two patrol vessels, the 86.3-meter BRP Gabriela Silang OPV-8301 and the 44.5-m BRP Tubbataha and the Japan Coast Guard deployed the 150-m PLH Shikishima. Meanwhile, Indonesia was represented KPLP, a unit of the Transportation Ministry’s Sea Transportation Directorate General. KPLP deployed the 61.8-m KN Sarotama P-112 patrol vessel as the command vessel. The exercise also involved other Indonesian related agencies and companies. General manager of state-owned port operator PT Pelindo regional 4 Bitung, Capt. James David Hukom, said the host Pelindo Belitung provided various equipment, such as 400 m of oil boom, oil suction skimmer, supporting ships and crew. “We want the world to see that a port in Eastern Indonesia has the capabilities to face emergency, fire, marine accident and oil spill,” he said on Sunday, as quoted by tribunnews.com. He added the capabilities were supported by Pelindo Emergency and Oil Spill Combat Team.

Damaged petroleum pipeline causes oil spill in central Syria | The Peninsula Qatar --Damascus: A petroleum products pipeline extending from Baniyas to Homs leaked on Thursday in Hadida area of Homs countryside, central Syria, causing a major gasoline spill and leading to the closure of Homs-Tartus road. A source at the Syrian Petroleum Company said technical teams isolated and secured the site by shutting the main valves upstream and downstream from the leak to contain the spill, adding that maintenance personnel, firefighting units, and excavation crews were immediately deployed. The source noted that technical operations to repair the damaged pipeline are underway, with response teams remaining on-site to monitor the situation and enforce safety and security protocols.

Oil prices today: Brent at $104.50 — Can Trump's 2.25 million barrel diesel deal offset Iran war risks? | Hindustan Times -- Oil prices slipped on Monday as markets weighed the possibility of more Russian diesel supplies. US President Donald Trump said Russia would supply additional diesel to the US and global markets. He also announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy facilities. These developments raised hopes that fuel supplies could improve and ease some pressure on prices. Brent crude prices stood at $104.50 per barrel on Monday. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.2%, to $104.50 per barrel by 0821 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.45 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 1% earlier in the session. Trump's diesel deal could bring 2.25 million barrels of additional supplies to the market. On Friday, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, equivalent to around 2.25 million barrels, to the US and global markets. He added that more supplies would follow later, according to Reuters. Diesel prices fell sharply after Trump's announcement. ICE gasoil futures, a key European diesel price benchmark, dropped 4.6% to $1,415 per metric ton. The fall reflected expectations of additional diesel supplies reaching the market. However, analysts questioned whether the deal could quickly increase available supplies. PVM analyst Tamas Varga said the immediate impact of the deal was uncertain because Russia's refining capacity had been severely reduced. This could limit how much additional diesel the country can produce and deliver in the short term, as quoted by Reuters. Russia has also partially relaxed its diesel export restrictions. Moscow has allowed 500,000 metric tons of diesel, equivalent to around 3.7 million barrels, to enter the international market. Varga said this volume was roughly equal to one day of US diesel consumption and around 13% of global demand. Trump's energy ceasefire announcement has raised hopes of fewer attacks on energy infrastructure. On Sunday, Trump unexpectedly announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy facilities. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting for details of the agreement, while Russia had not commented on the announcement, according to Reuters. The International Energy Agency has called for countries to review their diesel supplies. IEA chief Fatih Birol said all member countries should assess whether additional diesel releases were needed. He also urged countries that had not fully delivered their previously pledged supplies to speed up the remaining releases, with priority given to diesel. Despite the Russian supply deal, the Middle East conflict continues to keep Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to oil shipments have supported prices. This means additional diesel supplies may ease some pressure on fuel markets without necessarily bringing down crude oil prices significantly. An attack claimed by Iran-aligned Houthis has added to regional security concerns. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. The incident added to concerns about the wider security situation in the Middle East. Attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz are threatening the recovery in oil exports. More attacks on tankers travelling through the strategic waterway have been reported this month. These incidents could slow the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports that was seen in September. Also read: Why have US bank stocks lost $270 billion in market value as rising interest rates threaten Wall Street’s profit boom? Two reported maritime incidents have added to concerns over oil shipments. A tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar in Oman, while another vessel was damaged while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported the incidents, according to Reuters. Brent crude price forecast for 2026 Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in December. The investment bank increased its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85 per barrel. It also estimated that the risk premium in oil prices was slightly above $20 per barrel. A risk premium is the extra amount traders pay because of concerns about possible supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs expects US crude prices to remain lower than Brent in the coming years. The bank forecast that WTI crude would average $81 per barrel in December 2026 and $73 per barrel in 2027. It attributed the unusually wide gap between WTI and Brent prices partly to high shipping costs for transporting US oil to Europe, as quoted by Reuters. Hurricane Isaias threatens oil production Hurricane Isaias has created another challenge for oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy companies Shell, Chevron and BP were seeking to redeploy personnel and restore production at their offshore platforms after the hurricane made landfall early on Saturday. Any delays in restoring output could affect regional oil supplies. The key question is whether Russian diesel supplies can offset the risks from the Iran war and wider Middle East tensions. The additional diesel could help ease pressure on fuel supplies, particularly if more Russian exports reach international markets. However, the deal does not directly remove the risks to crude oil shipments from tanker attacks or disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent still at $104.50 per barrel, Middle East tensions remain an important factor supporting oil prices.

Middle East tensions push global oil prices above $106 -- International oil prices climbed to nearly a two-week high on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about potential disruptions to global crude supplies. Brent crude futures rose by $1.24, or 1.2%, to $106.19 a barrel, reaching their highest level since September 29. At 11:24 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had gained $1.11, or 1.2%, to $92.96 a barrel. The increase came as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears over the security of critical oil supply routes. Expectations of increased Russian diesel exports and a reported energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have so far failed to ease market concerns. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a Saturday attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Reports cited in the incident account said the attack killed 13 people and injured more than 300. A further attack on the airport on Sunday reportedly killed one person and injured 11 others. The repeated attacks have raised concerns about the security of critical infrastructure and energy supply networks across the Middle East. Market participants fear that a wider conflict could disrupt oil production, transportation and exports, adding further upward pressure on prices. Security concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have added to the pressure on oil markets. Attacks on tankers operating in and around the strategic waterway have increased uncertainty over the movement of crude oil from the region. Around one-fifth of global oil consumption typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. A prolonged disruption to shipping through the strait could restrict supplies to international markets and push prices higher. US President Donald Trump has announced an arrangement for increased diesel supplies from Russia, alongside a reported agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. The developments had raised expectations of improved fuel availability. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and risks to tanker movements have overshadowed the potential relief from additional supplies. Market analysts say announcements of increased supply alone may not be enough to stabilise prices. A sustained improvement in regional security, safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and uninterrupted oil exports will be crucial to easing pressure on the market. Oil prices could remain elevated if tensions persist and concerns about supply disruptions continue.

Brent Jumps to 2-Week High amid Heightened Supply Risks (DTN) -- Crude oil futures rose Monday morning after Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure over the weekend added to concerns over the stability and longevity of the current Middle Eastern oil supply recovery. By 8:45 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $2.08 to trade near $106.80 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $1.91 to $93.76 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB for November delivery advanced $0.0357 to $3.3309 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures bucked the trend, retreating $0.0303 to $4.7081 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.2 points to 102.22 against a basket of foreign currencies. Tehran-allied Houthis have since the start of the Saudi-backed offensive in Yemen, aimed at retaking areas near shipping chokepoints, ramped up strikes on Saudi infrastructure. On the weekend, they twice successfully struck the Riyadh international airport, raising concerns over the kingdom's apparent limited ability to defend vital infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Last month, drones launched from Iraq damaged pumping stations along the East-West pipeline, leading to a two-week suspension of Saudi crude oil exports from the Red Sea. Geopolitical supply risks were also brewing elsewhere. Iran has markedly intensified attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which this month have become a daily occurrence. Russia, meanwhile, continued to target energy infrastructure despite the U.S. President's proclamation of an "energy ceasefire," striking a Ukrainian natural gas production and storage facility in Kharkiv late Sunday. Following a phone call with his Russian counterpart, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday demanded that Ukraine ceased attacks on Russian refineries. Kyiv has since refrained from attacking Russian energy infrastructure. Trump also announced the one-time purchase of some 3.75 million bbl of sanctioned Russian diesel to alleviate prices at the pump ahead of next month's midterm elections. Given that high prices are primarily the result of a global supply crunch and not a domestic one, and considering that this volume is equivalent to roughly one day of consumption or 17 hours of domestic production, market observers were skeptical that this temporary sanctions-waver will have a significant impact on prices.

Oil prices spike after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports - Oil prices rose Monday, after the Iranian-backed Houthis launched attacks on two airports in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.Brent Crude, the international benchmark, closed at nearly $106 per barrel as of late Monday afternoon, up roughly $1.20 from closing time Friday. The price of Brent Crude peaked at $107.33 earlier in the day.West Texas Intermediate Crude, the North American standard, reached $94.36 during Monday trading and closed at $93.16 per barrel. The Houthis, a Yemen-based rebel group aligned with Iran, launched a string of attacks over the weekend on King Khalid International Airport and King Fahd International Airport, respectively located in Riyadh and Dammam, Saudi Arabia. The pair of attacks on King Khalid killed at least 13 people and injured at least 320 others, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA). GACA noted Sunday it was assessing the damage of the attack on King Fahd International Airport, which resulted in injuries. President Trump said Saturday the U.S. “may” join Saudi Arabia in responding to the Houthis.“We will make a decision. We move very quickly,” Trump told reporters at the White House.Saudi forces, which the Obama administration and first Trump administration supplied with offensive weapons, have fought against the Houthis in Yemen for more than a decade.The Iranian proxy group has continued to launch strikes into the kingdom during the U.S.-Iran war. The latter conflict, in its eighth month, has led to oil price spikes stemming from the Islamic Republic’s restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.The shock to the energy industry has increased prices at the pump back home. As of Monday, a gallon of regular gas costs roughly $4.36 on average nationally, up about $1.28 from a year ago, according to data from AAA.A gallon of diesel fuel also costs around $2.60 more on average than it did a year ago, AAA reported.Trump on Friday announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel to the U.S. and global markets, in an attempt to lower prices ahead of the midterms.Under the deal, Russia will “immediately” supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the marketplaces, before supplying another 500,000 tons next month, 1 million tons “immediately thereafter” and 3 million tons “within a short period of time,” depending on the condition of its diesel refineries, Trump wrote on Truth Social.But analysts cautioned the deal may not lower prices, with GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan saying Monday he was “skeptical” it will “deliver significant relief to the trucking industry and consumers who depend on diesel.”

Oil Market Climbs as Saudi and Hormuz Attacks Overshadow New Supply - The oil market on Monday rallied higher as attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed possible supply to the market after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new Russian diesel exports and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. Also, more attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz have been reported. A tanker was struck by a drone in the vicinity of Oman’s Sohar, while another was damaged transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market initially traded lower, posting a low of $89.61, on the news that Russia will supply more than 300,000 metric tons or 2.25 million barrels of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with more to come later. President Trump also unexpectedly announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an energy ceasefire. However, the oil market bounced off its low and retraced its losses and rallied over $2.20 to $94.06. The market later settled in a sideways trading range before it extended its gains ahead of the close and posted a high of $94.36. The November WTI contract settled up $1.89 at $93.74 and the December Brent contract settled up $1.93 at $106.65. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.52 cents at $4.7232 and the RB market settling down 35 points at $3.2917. Bloomberg reported that a diesel deal between the U.S. and Russia will not be enough to ease the global fuel market. It stated that Russia needs a lasting halt to energy strikes and weeks of refinery repairs before it can materially boost exports. However, it noted that even if all the volumes reach buyers by the end of the month, they will amount to less than 180,000 bpd, a mere fraction of what the nation used to export. Energy Aspects and Rystad Energy see Russia’s oil-processing at around 3.5 million to 4 million bpd, around 30% below seasonal norms. With several major diesel-producing plants halted or operating at reduced rates, a significant output decline is inevitable. It stated that even if a truce materializes, restoring diesel production will require several weeks of refinery repairs if the pace of recent works is any guide. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said monthly diesel exports of 3 million tons will only be possible after December.Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Iran is still reviewing a U.S. response to its proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and will reply to Washington via intermediaries when the review is over. Regarding the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis, an Iranian ally, Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated Iran’s openess to help resolve the crisis through dialogue.Saudi Aramco CEO, Amin Nasser, said the company was studying additional crude oil export routes and working to expand its overseas storage capacity, as global energy markets face disruptions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the region. Separately, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said the country’s ability to supply energy remains resilient amid major market security turmoil. He said Saudi Arabia is looking to expand its pipeline crude export capacity to as much as 10 million bpd by repurposing a domestic gas pipeline and investing in its existing East-West network. He said Saudi Arabia could add up to 1.2 million bpd of oil export capacity within seven to eight weeks by temporarily converting a gas pipeline for crude shipments.

Oil Prices Diverge As Traders Weigh Russian Diesel Relief Against Saudi Supply Risks - Oil prices mostly declined Tuesday as traders continued to assess the risks to energy supplies from Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the potential impact of a U.S. decision to ease restrictions on Russian diesel shipments. While Saudi Arabia has taken steps to restore crude flows, uncertainty remains over whether additional Russian supplies can meaningfully ease pressure on global fuel markets. President Donald Trump defended his administration’s decision to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian diesel supplies, despite criticism from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who said the move could weaken sanctions imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine. In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump pointed to the European Union’s billions of dollars in Russian energy purchases and said his decision was in the interests of Americans. The agreement would allow Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets for six months. Traders are watching the potential deal closely as they assess whether additional Russian supplies can ease pressure on fuel prices. A day earlier, on Monday, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom’s energy supply system remained resilient despite mounting security threats and market disruption. “Energy resilience is beyond barrels of spare capacity, of pipelines and gigawatts of generation,” the minister said at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh. The comments came after a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes by Houthi militants targeting airports in Riyadh. Last month, Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline, with flows climbing above 80% of capacity, Bloomberg reported. State-run Saudi Aramco has also increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, helping push the kingdom’s total oil exports towards prewar levels in September, Bloomberg reported.

Oil Slides as OPEC Flags Saudi Supply Rebound, Weak Demand -- Oil futures retreated Tuesday morning after a three-day rally that came on the back of escalating fighting in the Middle East. An OPEC report showing a larger-than-expected production rebound last month weighed on sentiment, as did the group's latest downward revision to 2026 oil demand growth estimates. By 9:30 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $1.52 to trade near $105.13 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $0.97 to $92.77 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB for November delivery retreated $0.0734 to $3.2183 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures bucked the trend, advancing $0.0770 to $4.8002 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.375 points to 102.0 against a basket of foreign currencies. According to the producer group's monthly oil market report published this morning, combined output from OPEC members, their partners, and the UAE, in September soared by 900,000 bpd month-on-month to 39.07 million bpd, the most since the beginning of the war in late February. The increase came as Iraqi crude production rebounded by nearly 400,000 bpd to more than 93% of pre-war levels, and as Saudi Arabian output recovered from a self-reported all-time low of 6.24 million bpd in August. OPEC+ crude oil production was still 3.69 million bpd, or 9%, below the pace in February, given that Iranian and Saudi output were lagging ante bellum levels by 1 and 2 million bpd, respectively. While most major forecasters see oil demand shrinking this year, OPEC has held on to, albeit increasingly tempered, growth expectations throughout the crisis. The fact that notoriously bullish OPEC analysts have in their most recent outlook slashed their 2026 oil demand growth forecast in half, now calling for a measly 180,000 bpd year-on-year increase in consumption, was the latest in a series of growing signs pointing to demand weakness. In the U.S., offshore operations have started to return from last week's brief Hurricane-induced shutdown that affected around 75% of output. As of Monday, some 30% of evacuated rigs were still idle. To make up for lost supply, the federal government last week authorized the release of up to 4 million bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that 283 million bbl were left in emergency stockpiles as of early October, the least since 1982. Market observers will be on the lookout for the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory estimates on tap later today, followed by EIA's weekly petroleum status report scheduled for release Wednesday.

Oil Market Rises on Growing Risks to Gulf Energy Infrastructure - The crude market on Tuesday continued on its upward trend as traders monitored the attacks on Saudi Arabia. Concerns over the vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping lanes remained in focus after Iran-aligned Houthis struck Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend and tanker attacks were reported near the Strait of Hormuz. The market was supported by news of an attack on the Yemen Oil Company in Sanaa. The reported attack came shortly after the Saudi-led coalition ordered the evacuation of the facility ahead of a military operation. The oil market traded to a low of $91.70 early in the morning before the market bounced off that level and never looked back. The market extended its gains to almost $1 as it traded to a high of $94.70 ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up 40 cents at $94.14. However, the December Brent contract settled down 96 cents at $105.69. The product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 21.12 cents at $4.9344 and the RB market settling down 4.16 cents at $3.2501. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth to 180,000 bpd from a previous forecast of 380,000 bpd, marking the sixth straight downward revision. However, OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million bpd from a previous forecast of 2.36 million bpd, citing the need for the world to rebuild inventories that have been depleted by the Iran war. OPEC also reported an increase of 900,000 bpd in oil production by the wider OPEC+ producer group to 39.07 million bpd in September, led by Saudi Arabia. The top OPEC producer told OPEC that it pumped 8.372 million bpd of crude in September, up more than 2 million bpd from August. According to the Marine Minerals Administration, U.S. producers in the Gulf of Mexico shut in about 16.13% of the current daily oil production and 16.59% of the current daily natural gas production in response to Hurricane Isaias. It said personnel have been evacuated from five production platforms, representing 1.35% of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. According to data from the Department of Energy, U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were unchanged at 283 million barrels last week, their lowest level since 1982. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed to make larger refiners blend more biofuels over the next two years, seeking to appeal to farm-state voters ahead of November’s congressional elections. The EPA proposed a rule to reallocate 100% of the renewable fuel volume obligations it waived for 29 small refineries announced at the end of August. The credits were waived for the 2025 compliance year. The EPA proposed two approaches and is seeking public comment. One would split the additional 2025 SRE volume evenly between the 2026 and 2027 compliance years, while the other would allocate all of it to 2027. According to Vortexa, the U.S. blockade has kept Iranian crude exports at zero in October, after declining in the second week of September. In September, oil flows from the Gulf excluding Iran increased to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, led by ‌a recovery in Saudi exports.

Iran deploys new tactics to target ships transiting Hormuz, oil rises -- Oil prices climbed on Wednesday after two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian officials told Reuters they were deploying new tactics to target ships, as Tehran seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.3%, to $106.03 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $94.42 a barrel. Both contracts had climbed more than $1 in early trade. READ: Iran’s IRGC hits 7 ‘violating’ oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz in 5 days The Iranian officials declined to provide details of the new strategy, but one said that Iran had started using different offensive tactics against vessels it considered in violation of its restrictions about 10 days ago, adding that this had led to an increase in attacks on such ships. A container ship and a tanker were hit by unknown projectiles within the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday. “The fact that Iranian officials are openly admitting to undermining US efforts to keep oil prices under control speaks volumes about the real intentions behind the so-called ‘peace talks,'” said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova. “Iran is well aware of its geographical importance and the havoc higher oil prices can inflict on the global economy, and it may not shy away from using this leverage.” Elsewhere, the Iran-allied Houthis attacked an administrative building belonging to state-owned oil firm Saudi Aramco in the city of Dhahran, causing a limited fire, Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said on Wednesday. The group has fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia over the past week in retaliation for the kingdom’s support of Yemeni government forces. Riyadh’s international airport has been hit four times, with a strike on Saturday killing 13 people. “Supply concern stemming from conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is driving prices higher,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. “However, the expectation that increased Russian diesel exports will ease market tightness is likely to limit sharp price movement in either direction,” Kikukawa said, projecting WTI to trade between $90 and $100 a barrel. Last month, Saudi Arabia raised oil production despite disruptions to shipments caused by the US-Iran war. That led to a sharp production increase from OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia — OPEC said on Tuesday. In Russia, the government said on Tuesday it did not see any direct link between peace talks with Ukraine and its deal to export diesel to the US. The comment came after Reuters reported that US envoys had told Ukrainian officials on Friday that the deal was part of an attempt to draw Russia back to negotiations for a peace settlement.

Oil Mixed as IEA Warns of Prolonged Diesel Supply Shortage - Oil futures were mixed Wednesday morning as traders were assessing the latest escalation in hostilities in the Middle East as well as an International Energy Agency projection warning of a prolonged diesel shortage.By 09:20am EDT Wednesday, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.06 to trade near $105.63 barrels (bbl), while NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $1.31 to $95.45 bbl.Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery retreated $0.0474 to $4.8870 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures fell $0.0282 to $3.2219 gallon.The U.S. dollar index jumped following this morning's higher-than-expected U.S. inflation reading, up 0.605 points to 102.585 against a basket of foreign currencies.Like OPEC's October report published Tuesday, IEA's 2026 demand outlook also grew more bearish, revising the expected oil demand decline for this year from 2.5 million bpd to 2.6 million bpd. Diesel demand, plagued by soaring prices and a worsening global economic outlook, is expected to account for a quarter of this drop.The loss in diesel supply, however, has dwarfed the substantial decline in demand, the Paris-based energy watchdog said, leading global inventories to deplete at a rapid clip. Given that this diesel supply imbalance is far from being rectified, IEA warned that global diesel markets may be heading into peak winter demand season without sufficient shock absorbers.The expected recovery in refinery runs over the next two months, even if it continues to accelerate, won't be enough to eliminate the supply shortage, meaning that inventories are bound to stay depleted until well into 2027, IEA said.Increasing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, kept the spotlight on supply risks. While the latest wave has largely spared oil infrastructure, successful strikes on some of the country's best protected assets, like on the Riyadh international airport last Saturday, have highlighted the fragility of the ongoing oil supply recovery from the Middle East. On Wednesday, the Saudi energy ministry reported that one of Saudi Aramco's headquarter buildings was among the latest targets struck by the Tehran-allied Yemeni militia.

Oil prices gain on attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iran's new tactics to target tankers (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran said it was deploying new tactics to target ships and keep oil prices high. Brent crude futures ‌settled up 37 cents, or 0.35%, at $106.06 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 95 cents, or 1.01%, to $95.09, a three-week high. Attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and strikes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-allied Houthis are driving up oil prices. "We're seeing a lot of fear trade today," Iranian officials declined to provide details of the new strategy to target ships, but one said Iran started using different offensive tactics about 10 days ago. Gulf oil flows excluding ⁠Iran surged in September to more than 81% of prewar levels, data showed, led by a recovery in Saudi exports. Iranian exports fell to zero owing to a US blockade. "More crude reaching international markets does not necessarily mean more oil is being produced," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said in a note. "Some of the recovery reflects a redistribution of available barrels, including volumes that would otherwise have supplied regional refineries." The Houthis attacked an administrative building belonging to state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco in the city of Dhahran, causing a limited fire, Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said.The group has fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia over the past week in what it says is retaliation for the kingdom's support of Yemeni government forces. Riyadh's international airport has been hit four times, with a strike on Saturday killing 13 people. Meanwhile, a container ship sank in waters south ‌of the ⁠Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine and catching fire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said in a statement shared by state media on Wednesday. This was a day after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said a container ship and a tanker were hit by unknown projectiles in the strait."The expectation that increased Russian diesel exports will ease market tightness is likely to limit sharp price movement in either direction," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment.US ⁠President Donald Trump announced on Friday that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets and his administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian diesel that were designed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war on Ukraine.Russia's crude oil production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million bpd but remained down 870,000 ⁠bpd year over year, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.The IEA also said crude oil exports from Middle East Gulf producers rose by 4.4 million bpd in September to around 75% of prewar levels.

Oil prices drop 2% as US considers easing Russia tanker sanctions- Oil prices declined by around 2% on Thursday 15 October following reports that the US is considering measures to relax restrictions on tankers associated with Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”. By 07:29 GMT, Brent crude futures had dropped by $2.28, or 2.2%, to $103.78 a barrel (bbl), reported Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had fallen by $1.34, or 1.4%, to $93.75/bbl. The fall reversed gains recorded in the previous session. Talks in Washington are reportedly focused on potentially permitting “legal oil” to be transported using vessels previously subject to sanctions, a US official stated. This comes just days after US President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel fuel in an effort to ease a global price surge. Despite the price drop, oil markets remained supported by ongoing security concerns in key shipping lanes and renewed military activity. Over the past 24 hours, two vessels, a container ship and a dry bulk carrier, sank near a strategic strait after separate projectile attacks, according to maritime officials. The region has seen a marked increase in incidents in the past ten days. Iran has separately announced plans to intensify strikes, citing the US blockade of Iranian ports and the imposition of stricter sanctions last month. Meanwhile, Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, targeting a refinery in the Ryazan region. The latest attack followed criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about a “dangerous” withdrawal of US intelligence. In the US, market sources referencing American Petroleum Institute data reported a decline in crude oil and distillate inventories last week, with crude stocks down by 11.1 million barrels for the week ending 9 October. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran sustained significant fire damage in an attack on Tuesday, according to individuals with direct knowledge of the situation, reported Reuters. While operations have continued, some staff have been instructed to work remotely. Sources reported that the fire, which started on the ninth floor, affected several floors, including the offices of CEO Amin Nasser. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry confirmed a limited fire at the site amid ongoing conflict involving Yemen’s Houthi group.

WTI Climbs Nearly 3% on Steep US Crude Stock Draw -- Crude oil futures were mixed for a third consecutive trading session on Thursday, as Brent crude futures edged lower after media reports suggested the Trump administration may be considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels. Meanwhile, the U.S. crude benchmark WTI gained nearly 3%, tracking lower-than-expected federal data showing a steep decline in crude oil inventories during the previous week. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright at a conference earlier this week reportedly told participants that the administration was looking into easing the sanctions regime on Russian energy trade, specifically on the country's so-called shadow fleet, to combat record high tanker rates. Given that European shippers would continue to be barred by EU and UK sanctions from transporting Russian oil, a unilateral move by the United States is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 8.6 million bbl to 415.6 million bbl, after declining 3.2 million bbl the previous week. This was the steepest draw in over two months, according to the agency. Stocks were 8.2 million bbl, or 1.9%, below the 423.8 million bbl reported during the same week last year. Crude oil imports dropped by 791,000 bpd to 6.049 million bpd, while exports also fell by 195,000 bpd to 4.570 million bpd. However, the EIA's crude oil stocks figure was below the 11.12 million bbl draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday, Oct. 14, for the week ended Oct. 9, though it exceeded the 2.09 million bbl decline recorded the previous week. ICE Brent for December delivery edged down $0.34 to $105.72 bbl, while the front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose $2.57 to $97.66 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery retreated by $0.1123 to $4.8151 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures contract dropped $0.0929 to $3.1666 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.492 points to 101.85 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Currie Slams 'Vibe' Oil Contracts As Trump Admin Halts SPR Drains, IEA Urges Massive Reserve Release - Oil prices are extending gains again this morning as traders weigh a weaker global demand outlook and signs of recovering Middle East crude supplies against persistent shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz and escalating/spreading violence between the Houthis and Saudis. An overnight lull in prices (set with hopes for more reserve releases) was upset as Iran showed more clips of tankers/container ships under attack. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that Gulf crude shipments rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, reaching more than 75% of prewar levels. Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels a day to 102.3 million barrels a day, driven by Gulf producers. However, the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping, the agency said. Given the massive crude draw reported by API (likely impacted by shut-ins from the first Atlantic hurricane of the year in the US Gulf), all eyes are on the (Columbus Day-delayed) official data... API:

Crude -11.1mm
Cushing +1.8mm
Gasoline +1.1mm
Distillates -1.5mm

DOE:

Crude -8.56mm
Cushing +1.86mm
Gasoline +3.52mm
Distillates -2.52mm

HUGE CAVEAT - the shut-ins in the Gulf make this very noisy: Confirming API's reporting, the official data showed a large crude draw last week (and another sizable draw in distillates inventories) while stocks at Cushing and overall Gasoline inventories saw builds... For the first time since the Iran war began, the Trump admin did not drain any reserves from the SPR... US Crude Production tumbled last week (shut-ins in the Gulf, so not comparable)... Total US Diesel stocks remain at seasonal record lows... WTI has surged up to $97.50 However, watching futures is misleading as Wall Street veteran Jeff Currie exclaimed this morning that the world’s most important oil benchmark has become little more than a “vibe contract", blunting its usefulness as a tool to manage price volatility. Brent’s disconnect from physical markets is creating “unpriceable risk,” deterring hedgers from using the contract to protect themselves, Currie said. “Everything associated with energy is going up but Brent,” Currie said Thursday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It is not connected to the real world anymore.” A hit to Brent’s integrity undermines the market’s ability to anticipate supply shocks with “profound consequences for the market and the rest of the world,” Currie said. The disconnect between paper and physical markets has frustrated traders since the Middle East conflict began, when crude struggled to top $100 despite historic supply shortages. In contrast, Dated Brent, the most important physical oil benchmark, has surged to near $130 a barrel. That dissonance has contributed to traders fleeing the market, with Brent open interest earlier this month hitting its lowest since March 2025 even as oil dominates headlines. Finally, Bloomberg reports that US officials attending an International Energy Agency meeting in Paris earlier today informally lobbied allies to commit an additional 100 million barrels from emergency oil inventories to supply global markets. "While US officials attending an IEA gathering in Paris on Thursday have yet to table a proposal about what should be done, they have been informally lobbying for an extra commitment of at least 100 million barrels, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is not public." (BBG)

Oil Market Rallies as Saudi-Houthi Conflict Escalates - The oil market continued on its upward trend in light of a larger than expected draw in crude stocks and the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading, posting a low of $93.58, on news that the U.S. was considering easing sanctions on some of Russia’s unregulated tankers, a move that could help lower freight rates and increase flexibility in diesel shipments. However, the market bounced off its low and never looked back. The market remained well supported by the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. It extended its gains to over $3.20 to $98.32 on news that the Houthis fired missiles at the presidential palace complex in the city of Aden on Thursday. The November WTI contract settled up $2.88 at $97.97 and the December Brent contract settled down 14 cents at $105.92. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 8.18 cents at $4.8456 and the RB market settling down 7.93 cents at $3.1802. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending October 9th. Crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in light of Hurricane Isaias. Net US crude imports fell last week by 596,000 bpd. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 1.9 million barrels in the week. Refinery crude runs increased by 135,000 bpd. U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week to 208.3 million barrels due to weaker demand. The International Energy Agency on Thursday agreed to release over 20 million barrels of diesel to the market as soon as possible and any oil remaining from a record emergency reserves release pledged in March to help supply and lower prices. The 32-nation IEA’s board met on Thursday to discuss the scale and timing of stock releases. The IEA said some members had already released more than they pledged in March and that others planned to do so. The IEA said about 330 million barrels have been released so far. Three trade sources said Saudi Aramco has approached traders this week offering additional spot crude oil cargoes for delivery into Europe in late October and into mid-November. Three trade sources said Saudi Aramco has approached traders this week offering additional spot crude oil cargoes for delivery into Europe in late October and into mid-November. According to EPA data, the U.S. generated 1.19 billion ethanol blending credits in September, down from 1.29 billion in August. It reported that biodiesel blending credits increased to 788 million from 716 million in August. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecast an 80% chance for at least a strong El Nino event to continue through the January-February-March 2027 season and favors an El Nino event of any strength to continue through the March-April-May period. It said the El Nino event continues to strengthen and an El Nino advisory remains in effect and is favored to continue through Spring 2027. The CPC’s temperature outlook for November-December-January favors above normal seasonal mean temperatures for Eastern Alaska, the northern tier and western third of the U.S., south Florida, the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. It said the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions are located over southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, while near normal seasonal average temperatures are favored for much of the southeast.

Crude oil price: Oil futures fall as IEA agrees to complete remaining oil releases - Crude oil futures traded lower on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to take all necessary steps to complete the remaining release of around 100 million barrels of oil. At 10.03 am on Friday, December Brent oil futures were at $105.38, down by 0.51 per cent, and November crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $97.33, down by 0.65 per cent. October crude oil futures were trading at ₹9220 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹9285, down by 0.60 per cent, and November futures were trading at ₹9122 against the previous close of ₹9177, down by 0.60 per cent. The Governing Board of IEA acknowledged that approximately 330 million barrels of oil have so far been released, and it agreed to take all necessary steps to complete the remaining releases of around 100 million barrels in a timely manner consistent with national circumstances. It agreed to accelerate the release of the remaining volumes, with specific plans already in place, including over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible. IEA encouraged those members holding oil production and refining capacities to boost supply of crude and refined products, particularly diesel. It also underlined the importance of the free flow of energy trade. In their Commodities Feed for Friday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil remains well-supported. A pattern has set in: prices slide early in the session, then claw back most of those losses by the close. As a result, ICE Brent continues to comfortably trade above $100 a barrel. Uncertainty in West Asia and concerns over the sustainability of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has the market pricing in a significant risk premium. The longer this pickup in flows continues, the more likely the market will start giving back some of this risk premium, they said. In order to see a full removal, there needs to be some kind of agreement between the US and Iran. This would provide the market with more confidence that stronger oil flows from the region will continue, they added. Meanwhile, petroleum status report released by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a sharp decline in the inventories for the week ending October 8. According to US EIA, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels, 3 per cent below the five-year average, for the week ending October 8. Gasoline inventories increased 3.5 million barrels, 4 per cent below the five-year average. Distillate inventories decreased 2.5 million barrels, 12 per cent below the five-year average. Over the past four weeks, total products supplied in the US averaged 21.1 million barrels a day, up 2 per cent year over year. The four-week average for gasoline product supplied decreased 0.4 per cent year over year to 8.7 million barrels a day, while the four-week average for distillate product supplied decreased 0.2 per cent to 4 million barrels a day. The four-week average for jet fuel product supplied increased 2.3 per cent year over year. October zinc futures were trading at ₹418.20 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹414.60, up by 0.87 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), October castor seed contracts were trading at ₹8000 in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹8286, down by 3.45 per cent. November guargum futures were trading at ₹15849 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹15911, down by 0.39 per cent.

Oil Eyes Weekly Gain on Mideast Supply Risks, Stock Draws -- Oil futures edged lower Friday morning but were on track for a second consecutive weekly increase amid growing supply risks in Russia and the Middle East. In the U.S., crude inventories posted a steep decline following Hurricane-induced production shut-ins that coincided with the end of emergency oil stock releases. By 09:15am ET, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.15 to trade near $105.77 barrels(bbl) and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $0.32 to $97.65 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slid $0.0315 to $4.8141 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0288 to $3.1514 gallon. The U.S. dollar index slipped for a second day, down 0.295 points to 101.57 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data published Thursday showed commercial crude oil inventories fell by 8.6 million bbl last week after shrinking by 3.19 million bbl a week earlier. Compared to fuel stockpiles, which have rapidly dropped since the beginning of the U.S. war on Iran and continued to hover near seasonal record lows, commercial stocks of crude have during this time held up well, in no small part thanks to more than 132 million bbl of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve landing on the market between the end of March and early October. While in large part attributable to the temporary loss of offshore production, the second sizable weekly decline in a row also raised concerns over meeting continued unseasonably high domestic demand now that emergency stock releases have ended. According to EIA data, domestic refiners last week processed nearly 1.5 million bpd more crude oil than in the same reporting week last year. Over the past four weeks, domestic crude demand has been outpacing year-ago levels by more than 500,000 barrels per day(bpd). Supply woes were also fueled by Ukraine not only resuming strikes on Russian refineries after a short-lived break but also vowing to intensify these attacks. Kyiv at the end of last week halted these operations at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump who had called for an "energy infrastructure ceasefire", but on Thursday abandoned this unilaterally declared and observed energy truce, striking one of Russia's largest refineries that accounts for nearly 5% of the country's crude oil demand. The week was also marked by events highlighting the fragile nature of the Middle Eastern crude oil supply recovery. Iran has greatly stepped-up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi rebels in Yemen have repeatedly targeted key Saudi Arabian infrastructure. In reaction, tanker rates have soared to record highs, and flows through the oil chokepoint have once again markedly slowed.

Oil touches $110 a barrel for first time since May on Middle East, Russia supply fears - (Reuters) - Brent touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May on Friday on worries that escalating ‌tensions in the Middle East could further tighten supplies, while investors assessed how much diesel Russia could supply to the global market. Brent crude futures settled $3.94, or 3.7%, higher at $109.86, the highest since May 19, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed $3.44, or 3.5%, higher at $101.41, the highest since September 17. So far this week, Brent has risen 4.9% and WTI 10.4%. "WTI and Brent reversed earlier losses as escalation fears resurfaced amid rumours of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure," research and consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note. " Israeli reports suggest Iran may be preparing a pre-emptive strike following ⁠unusual military movements detected by Western intelligence. Although unverified, these developments reinforce our view that persistent escalation risks will keep flat prices supported," Energy Aspects added. A Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched towards the Red Sea city of Yanbu. The port is critical for Saudi Arabia's efforts to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and keep oil flowing to international markets. Initial reports indicated no damage to Yanbu's infrastructure, consultants Rapidan Energy Group said. Supply concerns also increased as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz surged over the past 10 days, with Iran saying it was stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports and tougher sanctions introduced last month. "Intensified Iranian attacks drove Gulf crude flows sharply lower," Kpler analysts said in a report on Thursday, adding that they expected a slower and more uneven recovery in Hormuz flows in the absence of a comprehensive political deal. Ukraine struck a ‌Russian oil ⁠refinery on Thursday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared that Kyiv was abandoning a ceasefire covering energy sites announced by US President Donald Trump and criticized Trump's willingness to strike deals with Moscow. Russia's Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations at a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack in the region on Thursday, two industry sources told Reuters. "Conflict in the Middle East still keeps coming back and I think it's questionable how much diesel fuel Russia can actually deliver to the markets. Those two factors ⁠are just continuing to have traders be buyers," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. To boost supply, the International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel to the market. The United States also issued a request for proposal for an exchange of up to 17 million barrels of crude ⁠oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Department of Energy said on Friday. Washington previously agreed to loan 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR as part of a wider deal with about 30 countries in the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels from reserves around the world. Brent crude ⁠was little changed on Thursday, while WTI settled up more than 3% after news that the US was weighing plans to ease restrictions on the world’s "shadow fleet" of tankers and after a big US crude stock draw on hurricane production shut-ins.

Oil Prices Soar as Yemen's Houthis Strike Saudi Oil Co., Rival's Palace in Aden – The Helpers of God (Ansarullah) movement, which controls northern Yemen where some 80% of Yemenis live, is fighting on two fronts. The Helpers of God are led by members of the Houthi clan, and are sometimes called the Houthis. They are targeting Saudi Arabian targets on land and sea, and they are attempting to expand the territory under their control inside Yemen. Southern Yemen is vast and very thinly populated, and is the seat of the internationally recognized government of Yemen, under which probably only about a fifth of the population lives. Both fronts have been hot this midweek.On Tuesday, the Helpers of God, who control the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, targeted the ARAMCO headquarters in Dhahran, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, with a ballistic missile. The Arabian American Oil Company or ARAMCO was founded as a joint US-Saudi venture in the late 1940s, but it was nationalized by Saudi Arabia in the 1970s. The missile struck its administrative building, setting fires, and destroyed the office of ARAMCO’s CEO. At $1.8 trillion, ARAMCO’s market capitalization outstrips ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell. Chasing its CEO out of his office is, let us say, a statement.The strike sent Britain’s Brent oil index above $107 a barrel, a high price at a time when President Trump is attempting to bring fuel costs down for his constituents on the eve of the U.S. midterms. Brent crude averaged about $64.54 a barrel last year at this time. That was before Netanyahu and Trump launched their war on Iran this year on February 28.The ability of the Houthis to strike ARAMCO, about 844 miles away from the Yemeni capital, shows their increasing reach throughout the Arabian Peninsula and up and down the Red Sea coast. The strike also points to failures in Saudi Arabia’s anti-missile defenses, which, however, were able to stop some strikes on the capital of Riyadh Tuesday night, even though they could not block the missile that hit Dhahran. It also points to the growing military-industrial complex in Sanaa, wherein former military engineers have used Iranian (and likely Chinese) templates to create ballistic and hypersonic missiles and effective long-distance drones. The Houthis are not significantly “Iran-backed,” being an indigenous Arab movement that would be there even if Iran did not exist. They do, however, benefit from their loose alliance with Iran, though there is no line of command and they act for their own reasons.Inside Yemen, two hot fronts are the southwestern city of Taiz, pop. 800,000 (think Seattle), and the southern port city of Aden, population 1.3 million (think San Diego). Both are Sunni, while the Helpers of God are led by Zaidi Shia. But the Zaidis get along pretty well with Sunnis, and, indeed, they couldn’t rule 80 percent of the population if many Sunni tribes had not allied with them.Taiz and Aden have resisted the Houthis, but Taiz may fall to the present Houthi campaign, in which the Helpers of God have swiftly taken 380 square miles, including the coastal city of Mocha, which gave its name to its renowned strain of coffee.

Another Tanker Catches Fire in Strait of Hormuz after Hitting Sea Mine - Tasnim News – A third oil tanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after striking a sea mine while attempting to navigate an unauthorized route, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced. The IRGC Navy’s public relations office said on Sunday night that a shuttle-type oil tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude oil attempted to pass through an unauthorized route on Sunday afternoon, disregarding warnings and alerts issued by the force. The tanker struck a sea mine, triggering an explosion and a severe fire, the statement said. In a separate warning, the IRGC Navy announced that all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that switch off their navigation and identification systems will be identified as hostile and dealt with firmly and decisively. Earlier on Saturday, the IRGC Navy reported that a supertanker carrying crude oil caught fire after striking a sea mine while attempting to leave the strategic waterway through an unauthorized route. The vessel had reportedly switched off its navigation and positioning systems before the incident and was engulfed in a massive fire visible to residents along the coast. The IRGC Navy has warned that oil tankers disregarding the security requirements and regulations governing the Strait of Hormuz will have to face the consequences.

Iran's IRGC Says It Struck Three Ships in the Strait of Hormuz Over Two Days - -Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said on Monday that its forces struck another oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and said that it was the third ship it had hit in two days. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said it recorded six separate attacks on Sunday alone, far more than the IRGC has taken credit for. It also recorded at least three attacks on October 9 and October 10. Attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have hit their highest since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, and the amount of oil leaving the Persian Gulf through the strait has declined. Footage released by the IRGC Navy (PressTV).The IRGC Navy released footage that it said showed the vessel that was hit on Monday. It said the ship was struck while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz despite warnings from the IRGC. “Any cooperation by commercial vessels and oil tankers with the US terrorist, smuggling, aggressor, and plundering military in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf will face our decisive response,” The IRGC Navy said in a statement, according to Iran’s Press TV. The US also bombed a ship in the region on October 10, with US Central Command announcing a strike on a cargo vessel that it said departed an Iranian port and attempted “to run” the US blockade. The strike marked the first known US bombing of a commercial ship in the region since early September, when it launched a series of strikes against Iranian oil tankers. All signs are pointing to another escalation in the war, as there’s been no sign of progress in the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and US media has been reporting that President Trump is considering launching a series of strikes against Iran either before or after the November 3 US midterm elections.

‘Step into the field and see for yourself’: IRGC hits back at US claims of Hormuz control - The Navy chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has hit back at claims by the United States that the Strait of Hormuz is open and under Washington’s control, urging the US forces to move closer if they want to realize who controls the strategic waterway. In his first televised interview aired on Tuesday, Rear Admiral Ali Ozmaei said Iran exercises “smart control” over the Strait of Hormuz and requires vessels seeking to pass through the route to obtain authorization. “Today, the Americans claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open and they control it, but this claim is far away from the realities on the ground,” he said. “If they want to know whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed, they should step into the field and see who is in control of it.” The IRGC Navy commander also slammed the US military presence in the region, noting that American forces and their seven fleets had effectively become “fuel smugglers.” He said the United States’ $13 billion aircraft carrier had been rendered ineffective and was operating like a runway positioned 700 to 800 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz. “The carrier is vulnerable and does not dare approach the strait and come within range of our fighters,” Ozmaei said. He said the IRGC Navy controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, while the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Navy oversees the Sea of Oman. He added that a blockade was continuing beyond the Sea of Oman, in the Arabian Sea, where the Army Navy was also monitoring developments. Explaining Iran’s approach to maritime control, Ozmaei said vessels intending to transit the Strait must obtain permission from Iranian forces. Ships traveling to or from Iran are granted authorization according to the prevailing conditions to use the Iranian waterway. He said Iranian forces had taken firm action against vessels violating maritime restrictions, slamming the United States and its partners for maintaining a media blackout to prevent the international public from learning about the measures taken against those ships. “We had to release footage of one or two of these vessels in recent days to show the extent of the humiliation the United States has suffered,” he said, adding that Iran would continue to deal firmly with violations. The commander said regional security could be maintained without a US military presence, and that cooperation among neighboring countries could safeguard the region’s economic, political and military security. “We can establish security in the region in cooperation with our neighbors, and we do not need the Americans.” “If we work together, security can be ensured in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.”

Outsiders Have No Place in Persian Gulf, IRGC Chief Says - (Tasnim) – Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Ahmad Vahidi stressed that no extra-regional power has the right to threaten, establish a hegemonic presence, or interfere in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. In a message posted on his X account, Major General Vahidi emphasized that the security of the strategic waterway and the Persian Gulf must not be undermined by the presence or intervention of powers from outside the region. "No extra-regional power has the right to threaten, maintain a hegemonic presence, or interfere in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf," he stated. His remarks echoed a message issued by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei on August 30, in which the Leader urged Muslim nations and governments, particularly those in West Asia and along the Persian Gulf, to strengthen their unity against external threats. The Leader questioned whether outside powers would dare to covet the region’s lands and wealth if its nations and governments stand united under the banner of Islam, calling on Muslim rulers to identify their true enemies, understand their plots, and confront them.

Iran’s Navy deploys new units near Hormuz, warns ships against unauthorized transit --The Iranian Army’s Navy says it has deployed operational units in a new formation east of the Strait of Hormuz and across the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea, after identifying a tanker that sustained damage and caught fire. The Navy said on Tuesday that the tanker was detected by the surveillance teams around midday after it was damaged and caught fire while attempting to cross the restricted zone with its navigation systems switched off. The Navy said its operational units have been tasked with maintaining continuous, real-time surveillance of enemy activities and maritime traffic in the region. Iran’s Navy urged all vessels to strictly refrain from switching off their electronic equipment and to comply with international regulations. It also called on ships to coordinate their passage with the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran to ensure safe transit. In a statement on Monday, the public relations office of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said commercial vessels and oil tankers cooperating with the “terrorist plunderers” of the United States in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf will face a decisive response. It also announced a third crude oil supertanker was struck and engulfed in flames in the Strait of Hormuz in the morning after ignoring warnings and switching off its navigation system. Iran has restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the early days of the US-Israeli war of aggression that began on February 28 and came to a temporary halt under a ceasefire in early April amid the Islamic Republic’s brave resistance and successful retaliatory operations. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply, with vessel movements dropping to single digits amid the ongoing war on Iran and the restrictions on shipping through the strategic waterway. Tehran has said it will not reopen the waterway until the United States meets its demands and takes steps to restore Iran’s trust.

Iran hits six oil tankers in single day -- Iran has intensified attacks on oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s forces struck six commercial vessels in and around the waterway on Sunday, a record in a single day, as part of its attempt to reassert control over the world’s most strategically important oil conduit. Alireza Ozmaei, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that any vessel switching off its navigation and identification systems in the strait would be treated as “hostile” and dealt with “firmly and decisively”. Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, said the IRGC was striking vessels nightly. “We target five or six of these every night,” he told state TV. “Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic.” He also claimed that the United States was using small craft to smuggle Iranian oil on to larger tankers out at sea. Late on Tuesday in Tehran, the Iranian army navy announced in a statement that a “violating oil tanker” had caught fire east of the Strait of Hormuz. A statement from the army navy said that it had monitored “a violating oil tanker which, after switching off its tracking systems and attempting to pass through the prohibited zone, was damaged and caught fire while transiting the area east of the Strait of Hormuz”. The maritime campaign is one front in a wider mobilisation with Iran reportedly bolstering its defences, rallying loyalists and threatening a broader, harsher response against the United States and its regional allies. It is preparing for possible American air strikes after the Nov 3 midterm elections, amid speculation that Donald Trump is reluctant to risk the political fallout from escalating the war before voters go to the polls. Satellite images analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security show earthen barriers thrown up around the Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites. The IRGC said three supertankers had been hit since Sunday. One, a shuttle tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude, reportedly ignored IRGC warnings and tried to pass by a route unauthorised by Iran. It then struck a sea mine and burst into flames, the forces said. A second hit a mine in the southern strait and a third, which had switched off its navigation system, caught fire after being struck on Monday morning. Footage posted by IRGC-affiliated media showed tankers ablaze in the Persian Gulf, with black smoke rising from their hulls. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that at least three commercial vessels were hit in and around the strait over the weekend, including a tanker attempting to leave the waterway and a container ship entering it. On Tuesday night it said another container ship had subsequently been struck by an unknown projectile. A drone set fire to Petro Dolphin, the Emirati tanker, near Oman on Sunday, leaving two Indian sailors missing. Iran framed the blasts as the work of mines and its own response to intruders, while Washington said it was increasingly guiding tankers through the strait and that traffic is recovering. Both sides insist they control the waterway. Iranian officials portrayed the campaign as an act of self-defence. Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, described the Strait of Hormuz as “a red line of national security and a defensive tool”. He argued that the restrictions on shipping were a response to American and Israeli attacks and that vessels had been able to pass freely before the war. Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said security would not return “as long as America continues the naval and economic blockade of Iran”. In a jibe at Mr Trump over his reported deal to buy Russian diesel, he asked: “If Hormuz is open, why has the United States reached out to Russia for fuel?”

Iranian attacks sink two ships in Strait of Hormuz - The Washington Post - Two ships sank in the Strait of Hormuz this week after being hit by Iranian attacks amid an escalation in violence in the critical waterway. A Singapore-registered container ship, the GFS Pride, was attacked while transiting the strait on Tuesday, according to a statement from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. The vessel caught fire after the attack, the statement said, but all crew members were evacuated and no injuries were reported.

Another 'Violating' Oil Tanker Caught Fire East Of Hormuz Strait: Iran Navy - Iran's military has announced Thursday that it has disabled another 'trespassing' tanker in the Hormuz Strait area, which caught fire after possibly hitting a sea mine - or else coming under direct attack. "A few hours ago, the Iranian Navy's surveillance teams, while patrolling and controlling the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz, identified a trespassing tanker that had caught fire in the restricted area," semi-official Fars newly reports. "This trespassing tanker was attempting to cross the restricted area in the Sea of Oman by turning off its tracking systems," the report adds. Iran's Navy is again claiming, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is under the full control and supervision of the brave men of this force and the IRGC Navy". Social media images are circulating which to show the alleged ship in question on fire. The month of October alone has seen something like 25 Iranian attacks on tankers and cargo ships in regional waters, including as a result of sea mine detonations. Last summer, the Trump administration was touting that the US Navy's mission there had successfully demined the Strait of Hormuz, but clearly Tehran is asserting and seeking to demonstrate this was not the case. On Wednesday a Singapore-flagged container ship completely sunk when it was hit by an unknown projectile the day prior while in the Strait of Hormuz, video as and Singaporean authorities have confirmed. All 21 crew members of GFS Pride were evacuated and with no injuries, with dramatic videos taken by the crew members going viral. Iranian Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, deputy coordinator of Iran’s army, has meanwhile issued yet another warning for ships seeking to transit Hormuz. He said that "without coordination [we] will see what happens to them." "We will confront enemy threats by relying on new equipment and the capabilities of our young people," he said according to Mehr news agency. "Iran can’t vote in the midterms, but it’s clearly trying to have a say."

Container ship sinks after hitting mine in Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Guards claim - A Singapore-flagged container ship has sunk near the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by a projectile, maritime security sources said on Wednesday. The GFS Pride, a small container vessel with capacity for 2,824 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), sank while sailing through the strait, sources told Reuters. Tehran said the boat had hit a naval mine. All 21 crew members were safely evacuated and no injuries were reported, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) following the incident, which comes after attacks around the waterway surged over the past 10 days. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy previously said the vessel, carrying more than 2,500 containers, attempted to transit an “unauthorised and dangerous” route, before catching fire after hitting the naval mine. "MPA is deeply concerned about the continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," the Singapore authority said. "Such attacks are unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law." The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received a report of an incident where a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile - although it is currently unclear whether the two incidents are linked. In a statement, Iran’s Guards have warned local vessels and fishermen to take care. The vessel's United Arab Emirates-based manager GFS Ship Management FZE could not be immediately reached for comment. The loss of the GFS Pride marks the second vessel to sink since the US-Iran war began on February 28, according to data from UN shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization. In a separate incident, the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao was reported to be sinking close to the strait after being struck by a projectile on September 23, the sources added. "The Antigua & Barbuda flagged bulk carrier CAPE DAO, originally hit on the 23 September, is reported to be sinking after an unsuccessful rescue attempt," British maritime risk management group Vanguard said in a note on Wednesday. Earlier on Wednesday, Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that three fishermen were injured after a fishing boat was struck in an incident involving an unidentified drone near Sirik in southern Iran's Hormozgan province. It was described as an attack by a US drone, although Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed the circumstances of the incident or who was responsible.

12 killed and over 300 hurt in latest attack on Riyadh airport, Saudi authorities say (AP) — The latest attack on the international airport in Saudi Arabia's capital of Riyadh killed 12 people and injured over 300 others, civil aviation authorities said early Sunday, with some in critical condition. A Saudi-led coalition blamed Iran-backed Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen. It was the deadliest attack in any Gulf Arab country since the start of the Iran war, whose fronts have expanded to include the recent surge in fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. A missile struck a King Khalid International Airport complex housing terminals 3 and 4 for domestic flights, a regional official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media. The Saudi statement said the dead included four Saudi citizens as well as two Bangladeshi nationals, a Palestinian, a U.S. citizen, an Egyptian, a Jordanian, a Syrian and a Sudanese. It said the injured were being treated at several hospitals. Footage posted on social media following the attack and analyzed by The Associated Press shows emergency vehicles outside the airport. Saudi civil aviation authorities on Saturday said airport operations were suspended. The closure was later extended by 24 hours until 9 p.m. Sunday, according to the flight tracking platform Flightradar 24. The attack — the latest of several in the past week on the airport — is expected to increase Saudi pressure on allies including the United States to provide military support for the kingdom, which has seemingly tried to avoid all-out war with the Houthis. Shortly after the attack on Saturday afternoon, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was evaluating whether the U.S. should join Saudi strikes against the rebels. “We may. We’re going to look at it,” he said. “We just found out about the recent attack. So we’ll make a decision. We move very quickly.” Trump later Saturday said he planned to speak to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and said “what happened in Saudi Arabia is not acceptable.” Asked if the U.S. might get involved, Trump responded, “We’ll find out.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged in a social media post that an American citizen had been killed in the attack, which he condemned. “These reprehensible attacks demonstrate a blatant disregard for innocent civilian life. They must stop now,” he said. The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis blamed them for the attack, calling it a “fully-fledged war crime” and vowing a firm response. The airport has no military facilities. There was no immediate statement from the rebels, who earlier Saturday accused Saudi Arabia of striking Sanaa International Airport in the Houthi-held Yemeni capital. The Houthis claimed attacks earlier in the week on King Khalid International Airport that killed three Saudis, including a pilot. The surge in attacks, including against other Saudi airports, military facilities and oil infrastructure, has come in the week since a Saudi-led coalition launched a major military offensive against the Houthis.

Ansar Allah Continues Attacks on Riyadh Airport After Strike Kills 13 Civilians - -Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, continued attacks against the King Khalid International Airport on Sunday, a day after one of its strikes on the facility killed 13 civilians.The Saudi aviation authority said that the 13 dead included four Saudis, two Bangladeshis, one American, one Egyptian, one Jordanian, one Syrian, one Palestinian, one Sudanese, and one Indian, and that another 309 people were injured in the attack. At least one person, a Pakistani, was killed and 11 were injured by attacks that hit the airport on Sunday, bringing the death toll over the two days of strikes to 14. Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a series of attacks on Saudi airports, including the strikes on King Khalid Airport. He didn’t address the civilian casualties, but renewed a warning against using Saudi airports and said Riyadh was to blame for any failed interceptions. “The Yemeni Armed Forces reiterate their warning to all airlines, experts, employees, workers, and travelers against using Saudi airports and airspace, as they are vulnerable to targeting and constitute a theater of operations for our forces, with the exception of Mecca and Medina airports,” Saree wrote on Telegram.“They urge everyone to take our warnings seriously, and Saudi Arabia bears responsibility for any failed attempts to intercept them,” Saree added.Ansar Allah escalated strikes on Saudi airports after issuing a warning on October 5 that Saudi airspace would no longer be safe for civilian aircraft. The group is framing the policy as an “airport for an airport” since Saudi Arabia has repeatedly bombed Yemeni airports, including the July 13 strikes on the Sanaa International Airport, which reignited the war after a ceasefire between the two sides had held relatively well since 2022.“The Armed Forces affirm their commitment to implementing the declared equation: an airport for an airport, a blockade for a blockade, and escalation for escalation, until their objectives are achieved,” Saree said in his statement on Sunday.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday “strongly condemned” the Ansar Allah attack that killed 12 civilians and confirmed an American citizen was among those killed. The attack came as President Trump said he was considering launching direct airstrikes in Yemen, which would mark another major escalation of the war.A US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 remains in effect, and an Ansar Allah official has warned that if the US breaks the truce, it would lead to attacks on US assets and the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US shipping.While the US isn’t launching direct strikes, it remains deeply involved in the war as it provides targeting and intelligence support and has resumed refueling Saudi warplanes. The Saudi air campaign has had a devastating impact on Yemeni civilians, with at least 66 killed by US-backed Saudi airstrikes in September.Saudi airstrikes continued to pound Yemen over the weekend, with Saree saying on Sunday that Saudi Arabia “launched 124 airstrikes in the past 24 hours, targeting the capital Sanaa and the governorates of Taiz, Marib, al-Jawf, Hajjah, Hodeidah, and Saada, bringing the total number of airstrikes since the beginning of the escalation against our country up to 2,058, committing massacres against our people, the majority of whose victims are women and children.”

As Houthis strike Riyadh, Saudi Arabia confronts the costs of US war on Iran -For weeks, Saudi Arabia has touted the presence of boldface-name business leaders, from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to Blackrock’s Larry Fink, at lavish investment conferences in Riyadh that showcase Saudi Arabia’s economic potential, even amid regional war. But Houthi missile strikes at a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s international airport — which killed at least a dozen people, injured more than 300 and froze all flights — have cast a shadow over the business events later this month and raised broader questions about whether the country’s immediate security and economic interests are in conflict with Washington’s war aims in Iran and with Israel’s goals in a redrawn Middle East. The threat from Houthi strikes, now being felt directly by residents of the Saudi capital, is unlikely to dissipate until the U.S.-led war ends — a prospect that seems remote as Tehran refuses to bow to the Trump administration’s demands and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns that Iran could mount attacks ahead of his country’s elections on Oct. 27. Particularly with President Donald Trump appearing reluctant to come to Saudi Arabia’s aid with U.S. air power, Riyadh could be forced to negotiate with the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which has only grown more powerful and resilient in 12 years of fighting. In striking a key airport used last year by 40 million passengers — including Saudi royals, business titans and Trump — the Houthis are using the same tactic as its allies in Tehran: targeting the economic pain points of a wealthier, more conventionally powerful adversary. “The Houthis’ ability to retaliate asymmetrically, in a way that hurts, puts the Saudi leadership in a quandary,” said Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia who served in the Biden administration. “On the one hand, they are trying to degrade the Houthis’ ability to strike Saudi infrastructure and even kill civilians with relative ease. On the other hand, they have this imperative to de-escalate and get society back to normal, so this conflict doesn’t become defining.” The question is, “can they degrade the Houthis, or do they need to find an exit ramp?” asked Ratney, who added that Saudi Arabia might eventually seek a truce with the Houthis, using a combination of diplomatic negotiations and financial incentives. On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered to mediate between the Saudis and Houthis, his office said in a statement. But Saudi Arabia will likely forgo the Iranian offer, Saudi analysts say, because Iran is seen as the primary backer of the Houthis in the conflict in Yemen, tying a resolution there to the wider dispute in the region. “Look at the [Houthi] ballistic missiles, look at the cruise missiles, these are all upgraded and manufactured in Iran,” said Salman al-Ansari, a political commentator and founder of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee, a pro-Saudi lobbying firm in Washington. “It’s clearer than ever that when it comes to the big decisions and the regional dynamics, the Houthis are taking instructions from the Iranians.” After striking oil wells and refineries crucial to the Saudi economy in response to Saudi airstrikes in recent weeks, the Houthis are threatening the very image of the kingdom — assiduously cultivated by its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS — as a stable investment destination for tomorrow’s industries: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, entertainment, real estate and beyond. The events of this weekend, analysts say, highlight the profound dilemma facing MBS, who must juggle immediate security imperatives and long-term economic interests. Even before the airport strikes, the Houthis, who have long fought Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized Yemeni government at varied levels of intensity, began to inflict economic pain. Last month, fully abandoning a 2022 truce, the group seized the Yemeni coast along the Bab al-Mandab strait, effectively choking a key seaborne outlet for Saudi oil exports. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq launched concurrent drones that knocked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offline. At the time, Trump, who has been contending with high fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections, along with depleted munitions stocks, declined to intervene militarily to support MBS, saying the Houthis had promised to keep the Bab al-Mandab open to most sea traffic and would refrain from striking U.S. targets. Even after the Houthis hit Saudi refineries and airports in response to Saudi airstrikes, Trump appeared noncommittal. Speaking to reporters after the Riyadh airport bombing on Saturday, the president said he was weighing joining Saudi airstrikes against Houthi targets but the U.S. remained in “communication” with the militia. Trump carried out Operation Rough Rider, a campaign of strikes against targeting the Houthis, last year. But that was before the United States went to war with Iran. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst, said Saudi Arabia was aware of Trump’s reluctance to get involved in another front and described the Saudi requests for aid as limited. U.S. military radar and jets could identify and bomb launch sites used by the Houthis far faster than the Saudi Air Force, which has to receive U.S. intelligence before it can strike, Shihabi said. “American help would be very useful, but President Trump has domestic political considerations, which we understand,” Shihabi said. “The help Saudi would like to have in Yemen is very, very specific against missile launchers. It’s not an open air campaign.” Shihabi, who also serves as an advisory board member on Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity project, downplayed the economic repercussions of the Houthi strike on Saudi airports, arguing that Saudi air defenses can be redeployed to better defend civilian infrastructure. The most high-profile investment summit in Riyadh this month, the Future Investment Initiative, marketed as “Davos in the Desert,” said it would proceed on Oct. 26 as planned, with executives including Dimon of JPMorgan Chase still on the attendee list. Maha al-Saud, the forum’s chief executive, said in a statement that “comprehensive” security measures were being set up for Riyadh’s airports, hotels and conference venues. A splashy 10-week sports and entertainment festival called Riyadh Season will also begin next week as planned, with tennis matches featuring Novak Djokovic and concerts by Palestinian Lebanese singer Fadel Chaker, organizers say. But Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said he would not attend another major conference, the World Petroleum Congress, which began Sunday, but participate by video instead. The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP pulled out , the Financial Times reported. For Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation to succeed, it needs to welcome global talent, investment and tourists, but “you can’t do that when people can’t land in your country safely,”

Yemen’s Houthis are bringing their war to Saudi Arabia – and reframing the narrative of being an Iranian proxy - A deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh’s international airport has highlighted how the Yemeni group is reframing its perceived “Iran proxy” role and shifting its regional focus to its ongoing battle against Saudi Arabia. The Oct. 10 strike, in which 13 people were killed and hundreds injured, was the most violent episode on Saudi Arabian soil since the beginning of the war in Iran in February.It was followed by further – albeit less deadly – missile barrages in the days since. The violence, moreover, comes just as the kingdom is hosting a major conference for oil producers. As a longtime analyst of Yemeni politics, I see the latest attacks as another illustration of both the expanding regional stalemate across the Middle East and the need to understand how Yemen’s decade-long war is having effects far beyond its territory. The Houthi movement first emerged as a militarized political actor in Yemen in 2004 and has been locked in a multiyear civil war against the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed central government. Currently, the Houthis control about a third of the territory and two-thirds of the population. They are undoubtedly Yemen’s most powerful armed force, despite lacking access to warplanes, and have developed an arsenal of long-range missiles and drones. All along, the Houthis have frequently been portrayed by their adversaries and many external observers as a proxy for Iran, the chief regional rival to Saudi Arabia. It’s true that the movement has long been broadly aligned with Tehran and frequently shared regional objections, even if the relationship is complex and varied. At the same time, the evolution of the Houthi movement remains intimately connected to Yemen’s domestic political context and to a historical feud specific to the country – something I and many other scholars have researched. What is particularly significant in the current context of an escalating fight with Saudi Arabia, however, is the way in which the Houthi leadership has sought to reframe its military engagement over the course of 2026 so that it does not appear to be directed by Iran.This shift is analytically important because it reveals how Houthi leaders understand the political effectiveness of particular narratives and how they seek to legitimize their actions. When the United States and Israel launched their attack on Iran on Feb. 28, many observers expected the Houthis to enter the conflict swiftly. Their previous intervention in the Red Sea – between November 2023 and May 2025 – in support of Palestinians after Israel’s war in Gaza had, to some extent, provided a blueprint for disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.The symbolic returns of their earlier campaign had been considerable. On the one hand, it demonstrated the Houthis’ willingness to act in support of Gaza at a time when many Arab governments were widely perceived as turning their backs on the plight of Palestinians. It also revealed the movement’s capacity to disrupt global supply chains and affect international trade far beyond Yemen. But the Houthis remained on the sidelines for several months after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Their leaders appeared to disregard reports that Iranian decision-makers had called on them, in July 2026, to close the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb to maritime traffic. Assuming that the Houthis would automatically act at Tehran’s command reflected a misreading of Yemeni history and of the identity markers that shape the movement’s political legitimacy. Acting in support of Palestinians could be framed for a domestic and regional audience as an expression of Arab solidarity. But acting on behalf of Iran, a non-Arab Persian country composed almost entirely of Twelver Shia Muslims, was considerably more difficult to rationalize in Arab Yemen where Twelver Shia Muslims are absent and Sunnis are the majority. During the summer of 2026, an important episode went largely unnoticed in the Western media: the Houthis’ attempt to establish the reopening of Sanaa International Airport through the surprise departure of a Tehran-bound flight and its subsequent return.The airport, located in the Houthi-controlled capital, had been closed since late 2024 following Israeli strikes. Its continued closure meant that access to and exit from Houthi-controlled territory remained subject to restrictions imposed by the movement’s adversaries. These included the authorities controlling Aden, the interim capital of the internationally recognized government.From the Houthis’ perspective, their sovereignty consequently remained incomplete. The airport’s closure not only restricted civilian movement but also limited their ability to send supporters abroad for training and potentially to receive military equipment. On July 13, the Saudi military’s subsequent bombing of the Sanaa runway, as the incoming aircraft from Tehran approached, provided the movement an opportunity to reignite its confrontation with Riyadh.After more than three years of a de facto ceasefire and difficult negotiations, Riyadh appeared, as in its dealings with Iran, increasingly eager to extricate itself from the region’s protracted conflicts. Sensing an opening, the Houthi leadership responded by invoking a logic of tit-for-tat retaliation. The Houthis’ tactics today are a kind of mirror to the 2015 launch of a Saudi-led bombing campaign and blockade of the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen that has led to years of protracted civil war. The Houthis now claim the right to impose reciprocal restrictions on Saudi Arabia, particularly by targeting its ports and oil-exporting infrastructure. The Houthis’ new tactic serves two purposes. First, it allows the Houthis to redirect responsibility for the economic and humanitarian crisis in and around Sanaa toward the Saudi-enforced blockade rather than their own governance failures, mismanagement and corruption. Second, it provides a rationale for escalating the conflict across the region.Previously, the Houthi military leadership had halted attacks on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea following the formal Gaza ceasefire of October 2025, despite having repeatedly come under bombardment. It had likewise suspended attacks on American vessels following an agreement with the Trump administration in May 2025.These decisions demonstrated a degree of pragmatism beneath the movement’s inflammatory rhetoric. That pragmatism appeared to persist even as the Houthis resumed their regional military engagement, with American diplomats reportedly meeting Houthi representatives in Oman in September 2026.With Saudi Arabia, however, the Houthis felt less compunction. Riyadh was already facing repeated barrages of Iran missiles as a consequences of its alliance with the U.S. and facing an energy export squeeze. So with the Saudi airport incident, the Houthi leadership feels it has trapped Saudi Arabia, with consequences extending to the global economy.This retaliatory strategy was bolstered by successful Houthi moves in early September to establish a degree of control over the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important maritime choke points. That gave the Houthis leverage over shipping crucial for Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea.Drones and ballistic missiles, as the attacks on the Riyadh airport illustrate, also give the movement the capacity to strike targets across much of Saudi Arabia.The targeting of civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, particularly airports, illustrates the retaliatory logic the Houthis have invoked to justify their actions. It’s far from clear what the consequences of this increasingly aggressive Houthi campaign will be. The region seems poised for ongoing strife, and it’s an open question whether it will draw back in the likes of the U.S., which has been reluctant to return to full-scale regional conflict.

Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen's al-Jawf Province Kill Nine Civilians, Including Five Children - Saudi airstrikes hit a government building and civilian homes in northern Yemen’s al-Jawf province on Monday, killing at least nine civilians, including five children, Yemeni media has reported. Citing the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government, the SABA news agency reported that seven other people were injured in the attack and described the casualty figures as an initial toll. Footage from Al Masirah TV shows the aftermath of the strikes and some of the casualties, including children who were killed. A man holding the body of a child killed by a Saudi strike in Yemen’s al-Jawf province on October 12, 2026 (screenshot of footage from Al Masirah TV)The Health Ministry said in a statement that the “direct targeting of government facilities and civilians constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law and a crime added to the series of crimes committed by the Saudi-led coalition against the people of Yemen.”Other civilian casualties were reported in attacks in Yemen on Monday, including shelling by Saudi-backed forces that killed a child in Yemen’s southwestern Taiz province. On Sunday night, Saudi airstrikes hit residential areas in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, damaging homes and injuring civilians.The Saudi-led coalition was notorious for bombing civilians during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the Saudi bombing campaign has followed the same pattern since Riyadh reignited the war by launching airstrikes against the Sanaa International Airport in July. The bombing campaign is backed by the US, which is providing intelligence and targeting data and has also resumed refueling Saudi warplanes. According to the Yemen Data Project, at least 66 civilians were killed, and 90 were wounded by Saudi airstrikes in September, the heaviest month of Saudi airstrikes in the country since January 2022. The Health Ministry said Saturday that since September 3, when the war escalated following the start of an Ansar Allah ground offensive, 91 civilians have been killed and 168 have been injured.Ansar Allah’s attacks on Saudi airports have also inflicted civilian casualties, with at least 14 civilians killed by strikes on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in recent days.

Saudi Airstrikes Hit Girls' School and Health Center in Yemen, Killing Five Civilians: Yemeni Media - Saudi airstrikes in Yemen’s southwestern Taiz province on Monday hit a girls’ school and a health center, killing at least five civilians, according to Yemeni media reports. Yemen’s SABA news agency, citing a local source, reported that a child was among those killed and that 15 other civilians were wounded. The news agency also published photos said to show the aftermath of the attack. Saudi Arabia was notorious for bombing civilians during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict, which was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport in July, has followed a similar pattern. Separate Saudi strikes in the northern al-Jawf province on Monday killed at least nine civilians, including five children.The Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government reported more civilian casualties on Tuesday, saying that at least two were killed by Saudi strikes on oil infrastructure in Hodeidah. On Monday, the ministry said that since September 3, when the war escalated following the start of an Ansar Allah ground offensive, Saudi strikes have killed at least 107 civilians and wounded 278.The Yemen Data Project, an independent organization, has reported a similar toll, saying in a report that at least 66 civilians were killed and 90 were wounded by Saudi strikes in the month of September. The bombing campaign is backed by the US, which is providing intelligence and targeting data and has also resumed refueling Saudi warplanes. Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has also killed civilians in its strikes on Saudi Arabia. At least 14 civilians were killed by weekend attacks on the King Khalid Airport in Riyadh.

Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen Killed at Least 66 Civilians and Wounded 90 in September - - Saudi airstrikes in Yemen killed at least 66 civilians, including eight children, and wounded 90 throughout September, according to the Yemen Data Project (YDP), as the war has significantly escalated since it was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport in July.The deadliest single incident for civilians was the September 7 bombing of the Central Correction Prison in the northern al-Jawf province, where 35 civilians, including one child, were killed and seven were wounded when the facility was hit by a Saudi strike. Yemen’s Mine Action Center reported that its experts documented bomb fragments at the site and determined that the strike was carried out with a 2,000-pound US-made satellite-guided GBU-31 JDAM bomb. Other significant incidents in September include the September 27 bombing of a market in the southwestern Taiz province, which killed seven civilians and wounded 40, including five children. On September 22, a Saudi strike hit a civilian home in the Red Sea port city of Mocha, killing six civilians, including a woman and two children.The Saudi airstrikes are supported by the US, which is providing intelligence and targeting support. Amid the escalations in Yemen and the rapid gains by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, the US has resumed refueling Saudi warplanes, which was previously suspended back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress, as the Saudi air campaign at the time was also taking an enormous toll on civilians.The YDP said September marked the highest rate of civilian casualties in Saudi airstrikes in Yemen since January 2022, when Saudi airstrikes killed at least 155 civilians. The single worst incident in that month was the bombing of a migrant detention facility in Yemen’s northern Saada province, which killed 91 civilians. That same facility was bombed by the US during President Trump’s bombing campaign against Ansar Allah last year, which killed 68 civilians, a massacre the Pentagon has acknowledged.

Iran Offers to Contribute to Saudi-Yemen Dialogue - (Tasnim) – Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed Iran’s readiness to provide any assistance to help initiate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and facilitate a political solution to the crisis. In a telephone conversation with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan on Sunday evening, the two top diplomats discussed the latest developments in the region. Araqchi expressed concern over escalating tensions, stressing that insisting on a military approach and disregarding a political solution would further complicate the existing situation. He also emphasized that the ongoing crises in the region have no military solution, reiterating Iran’s readiness to provide any assistance to help launch dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and facilitate a political settlement.

Yemen slams Saudi strike on Sana’a oil facility as ‘clear war crime,’ vows ‘harsh and painful’ retaliation -Yemeni government spokesperson Omar Al-Bukhaiti has condemned a Saudi attack on an oil company facility in the Al-Subaha area west of the capital, Sanaa, denouncing it as a “clear war crime” and vowing a “harsh and painful response” to the assault. In a statement carried by the Yemen News Agency (Saba), Al-Bukhaiti said the US-backed Saudi enemy committed "a grave act of folly by targeting civilian facilities and infrastructure in the capital, Sanaa," emphasizing that such aggression would not go unanswered. The government spokesperson reassured the Yemeni people that authorities had taken all necessary measures to confront the attack and maintain stability. He confirmed that the targeted facility was empty at the time of the strike and that the supply of petroleum products remains stable and sufficient to meet citizens' needs for an extended period, urging the public to disregard false rumors regarding fuel shortages. The strike came shortly after the Saudi-led coalition issued a warning ordering civilians to evacuate the Al-Subaha area, which houses a station belonging to the Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC) and nearby storage areas. The Yemen Petroleum Company swiftly moved to reassure the public, stating that the Al-Subaha facilities contained no stock of petroleum products at the time of the attack and that the strike would not affect fuel stock or supply chains. The company confirmed that supplies for consumption are "available in safe facilities and locations, and in sufficient quantities" to meet demand for extended periods. The attack comes despite prior warnings from the Yemeni Armed Forces that any strike on Sanaa would trigger direct retaliation against the Saudi capital. Earlier on Tuesday, after the Saudi coalition announced its evacuation warning and threatened a "special operation" in Sanaa, Yemeni military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree issued a definitive red line: "The Yemeni armed forces warn the Saudi enemy that any attacks on the capital, Sana'a, will be met with a harsh and painful response in the Saudi enemy's capital, Riyadh." Saree also declared all Saudi Aramco oil facilities "legitimate targets," issuing urgent directives for employees, engineers, experts, and citizens near any Aramco installation to evacuate immediately. He further warned airlines, airports, travelers, and employees operating in previously designated target areas to stay away. Since 2015, the US-backed Saudi-led coalition has subjected Yemen to a brutal military aggression and a comprehensive land, air, and sea siege, triggering one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. In response, the Yemeni Armed Forces have developed advanced domestic drone and missile capabilities, repeatedly striking deep into Saudi territory—including critical Aramco installations—to force the lifting of the siege.

Houthis strike Aramco hours after Saudi-led coalition hits Sanaa oil site - Al Jazeera - The Houthis have targeted an administrative building belonging to Saudi Arabia’s Aramco in the eastern city of Dhahran, an official at the Ministry of Energy told the Saudi SPA news agency. Authorities ⁠responded to a fire caused by the attack on Tuesday, ⁠the ministry ⁠said in a statement. No injuries or fatalities were reported. The attack on the headquarters of Saudi’s national oil company came after Yemen’s Houthis warned all employees and civilians near Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities to evacuate, calling the sites “a legitimate target” earlier on Tuesday. The warning from the group’s spokesman, Yahya Saree, was prompted by an evacuation order from the Saudi-led coalition urging civilians to evacuate Yemeni Oil Company’s al-Sabah central station in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa. Saree responded to the coalition’s evacuation order, warning that any strikes on Sanaa would meet a “harsh and painful” reprisal on the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh. Saudi Arabia also intercepted missiles launched by the Houthis towards Riyadh, SPA reported. Four ⁠people ⁠were injured and 15 homes were ⁠damaged by the debris from two intercepted missiles, said the Civil Defense spokesperson, according to SPA. Shortly after the Saudi-led coalition’s evacuation order, Al Jazeera’s team on the ground reported hearing explosions in Sanaa. Media outlets affiliated with the Houthis said air strikes by the Saudi-backed forces struck an oil facility in the al-Sabah area of the capital. Shortly after the warning, Saree said on Telegram that any Saudi attack on Sanaa would be met with a “firm and painful” response in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Houthi officials appeared to have anticipated the attack. The oil company said its storage facilities were empty and that a Saudi strike would not affect oil reserves or supplies for residents. Still, witnesses in the city said lines of cars formed at some gas stations amid fears of a shortage. “We heard the explosion upon Saudi Arabia targeting the Yemeni oil al-Sabah central station here in the capital Sanaa,” Al Jazeera correspondent Yousef Mawry said. Saudi Arabia also conducted two other air strike campaigns on the Ras Isa port, targeting Yemeni oil storage tanks and on an oil station in the Houthi-controlled Hodeidah province, according to Mawry. Saudi-led coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki accused the Houthis of using the facility and its underground fuel depots for their arsenal of missiles and drones. Following the reported explosions, Saree said Houthi fighters were confronting Saudi-backed forces in Sanaa. In a statement on X, Saree said the Houthis would target the sites that were ordered to be evacuated if the Saudi-led coalition proceeded with an attack on Sanaa. Civilians were told on Tuesday to evacuate the Aramco company headquarters in Dhahran, Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport and a refinery affiliated with Aramco in Riyadh. An attack on Riyadh’s airport on Saturday left at least 13 people dead and more than 300 injured, rocking the world’s top crude oil exporter. Another person was killed, and 11 were wounded on Sunday after a projectile struck the airport in Riyadh.

Ansar Allah Warns More Attacks on Saudi Oil Facilities Are Coming After Strike Hits Aramco Headquarters - Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, warned on Wednesday that more attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were coming following a strike that hit the headquarters of the Saudi state-owned oil giant Aramco in the eastern city of Dhahran.Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said that attacks also targeted the King Khalid International Airport and an Aramco refinery in Riyadh. The Ansar Allah strikes came after Saudi warplanes bombed an oil depot on the outskirts of the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, which Yemeni officials said was empty, and a fuel port on the Red Sea in Yemen’s Hodeidah province, where two civilians were killed.“The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that their operations toward Saudi depths will continue in the coming days, targeting Saudi enemy airports and oil facilities, and their consequences will be severe for the enemy, by the permission and power of God,” Saree said in a statement on Telegram. Saree also renewed the evacuation warning for Saudi airports and said that Ansar Allah would continue its “siege for siege” policy against Saudi Arabia. The war was reignited in July when Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Sanaa International Airport to enforce a long-standing blockade that was eased as a result of a 2022 ceasefire deal but never fully lifted.Saudi strikes continued to hit Yemen on Wednesday, and several civilian casualties were reported. Yemen’s SABA news agency reported that at least one woman was killed and four other civilians were wounded by Saudi airstrikes that hit the al-Shamayateen District in the southwestern Taiz Governorate.“Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 42 airstrikes and missile attacks targeting civilian areas in the capital, Sana’a, and the governorates of Taiz, Lahj, Marib, Amran, and Mayyun Island. These attacks were carried out using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases, with missile strikes originating from Najran,” Saree said in a separate statement. The Sanaa-based Yemeni Health Ministry said on Monday that since September 3, when the war escalated following the start of an Ansar Allah ground offensive, Saudi strikes have killed at least 107 civilians and wounded 278. The US is strongly backing the air campaign by providing intelligence support and refueling Saudi warplanes. Fighting also continues on the ground in Yemen as Ansar Allah is encircling the city of Taiz, which has long been a stronghold of Saudi-backed Yemeni forces. The ground fighting has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians, and the war casualties have overwhelmed hospitals in Taiz and other parts of Yemen.

Houthi Missile On Riyadh Wounds Residents, As IMF Chief Warns Of Spillover 'For Everybody, Everywhere' Wednesday has witnessed another Houthi ballistic missile attack targeting Saudi Arabia's capital. The kingdom's civil defense spokesman has confirmed bystanders were injured when missile debris from an inbound rocket fell after it was intercepted over Riyadh. "The incident resulted in injury to an Arab resident and limited material damage to a residential building and a vehicle," stated the spokesman, as quoted by state SPA news agency. A later update included more casualties: "Saudi Arabia's civil defense agency said on Wednesday that four people – two women, a man and a child – were wounded by debris from two intercepted Houthi cruise missiles in the capital and that 15 homes were damaged." Saudi coalition spokesman Turki Al-Malki had separately written on X, "Interception and destruction of a ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia towards Riyadh." AFP journalists had cited loud explosions heard in the capital at the time of the attack, with emergency messages issued by authorities warning people on cell phones of an "aerial threat" and urging them to take shelter. Saudi Arabia has faced widening Houthi strikes, which have now become daily since ramping up over the past week, in connection with the raging ground war in Yemen, focused on the Red Sea coast. Last weekend saw two unprecedented strikes on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh which killed 13 people and left hundreds injured. The head of the International Monetary Fund, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, warned that these worsening attacks on Saudi Arabia could impact people "everywhere". "The Saudi economy is important for the region and the world, and in that sense, these developments have potentially negative spillovers for everybody, everywhere," Georgieva stated at a news conference during the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok. One regional outlet has tallied that over a dozen countries have outright suspended flight services to Saudi Arabia, amid the Houthi 'war on the airports' - which has left major Saudi hubs shuttered for at least through the rest of this week: At least 17 airlines from 13 countries have suspended or canceled flights to Saudi Arabia as of 13 October following Yemeni strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. Close to 1,500 flight-cancellation listings were recorded across Saudi Arabia’s major airports on 11 and 12 October, according to Flightradar24 data reviewed by Gulf Business. Riyadh alone lost 98 percent of its scheduled traffic on Sunday, with 655 cancellations. Tuesday evening into the overnight hours also saw a rare Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco's administrative headquarters in the kingdom's east. It resulted in a "limited fire" - the company said.

Ansar Allah Strikes Headquarters of Saudi-Backed Yemeni Government in Aden - Ansar Allah launched an attack on Thursday targeting the headquarters of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government in Aden as the Yemen war continues to escalate. Officials within the Saudi-backed government said that the strike on the presidential palace killed five people and wounded 16, and that the casualties included security personnel and civilians who worked at the facility, while Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, said that it targeted the Saudi military.“The bombing of the Saudi enemy’s military operations headquarters in Aden comes within the framework of the declared equation of striking Saudi troop concentrations wherever they may be, and considering any Saudi enemy military presence a legitimate target for our forces wherever it may be,” Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree wrote on Telegram. A military source from the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces claimed to Yemen’s Saba news agency that “a number of Saudi officers were killed and wounded as a result of a strike that targeted their headquarters in Aden.”Shaya al-Zindani, the prime minister of the Saudi-backed government, was said to be at the palace at the time of the strike and was unharmed. The Riyadh-based Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), established by Saudi Arabia after Riyadh gave up its goal of reinstalling former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in Sanaa, appointed al-Zindani prime minister in January after Saudi Arabia clashed with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council.Also on Thursday, Saree denied Saudi claims that Ansar Allah targeted Medina, the second holiest city in Islam. “The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any targeting operations towards Saudi territory today, and that the Saudi enemy’s claim of targeting Medina is a blatant and gross fabrication,” he said.Saudi airstrikes continued to hit northern Yemen, and fighting between Ansar Allah and Saudi-backed forces continued around the city of Taiz, which is under siege as Ansar Allah’s forces have it encircled.

Analysis-How are Yemen’s Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia so effectively? (Reuters) - Houthi militants who control northwestern Yemen have in the past week attacked Riyadh international airport and hit the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, in air assaults that have laid bare Saudi Arabia's vulnerability to threats from its enemy next door. The attacks are shattering the illusion of Saudi Arabia as a safe international investment hub as it tries to attract foreign money and diversify away from oil. This nightmare scenario for a key US ally in the Gulf has been years in the making, weapons and regional experts say. They attribute Saudi Arabia's vulnerability to a perfect storm of factors that include Tehran helping the Houthis reach near self-sufficiency in producing and deploying advanced weapons, bolstering the ragtag Yemeni group, and the impact of the US war on Iran, which has depleted stocks of interceptors. Iran has been giving weapons, money and training to the Houthis, known formally as Ansar Allah, for more than a decade, although Tehran has officially denied arming the Houthis in violation of a ⁠UN arms embargo. While Iran has come under its own financial and military strains due to war and sanctions, the Houthis have learned – with Iranian help – how to assemble their own weapons, including drones and missiles, the experts interviewed by Reuters said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards and members of Iran's other ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, initially gave the Houthis knowledge of missile systems and their operation, said Andreas Krieg, senior security studies lecturer at King's College London. "Former Yemeni military engineers and a growing generation of locally trained specialists have helped institutionalise these capabilities," he said. "Tehran has not simply supplied the Houthis with weapons. It has helped create an indigenous military-industrial learning process that becomes progressively harder to dismantle, even if direct Iranian supply routes are disrupted." Iranian analysts said that the Houthis have in this way become one of the most cost-effective and valuable military proxies of Iran. "The Revolutionary Guards were forward-looking. They looked at what happened if the Houthis couldn't receive equipment or weapons directly (from Iran), or if these were seized by US-allied forces," said Hamid Nikou, a former political advisor to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Nikou said this strategy included teaching the Houthis how to assemble dual-use parts to make drones and even ballistic missiles. The Saudi-led military coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen says it has intercepted a number of missiles fired by the Houthis at Saudi cities, and that it has destroyed 127 Houthi weapons storage facilities and launch platforms. Coalition spokesperson Turki al-Maliki told a press conference the Houthis had acquired advanced military technology with the help of "regional actors," including ballistic missiles, drones and explosive-laden fast boats. A key strength of the Houthis in building their own weapons is that they don't rely solely on Iranian-made equipment or imports coming from Iran. The Conflict Armament Research organization said in a report this week that the Houthis were attempting to make advanced medium-range ballistic missiles using parts shipped from China, after Yemen's internationally recognised government seized one such shipment. "China has emerged as a particularly important commercial source, while Iran continues to provide specialised military technology, technical expertise and components that are difficult to obtain commercially," Krieg said. The Houthis have also experimented with artificial intelligence in efforts to improve their weapons' effectiveness. Anthropic said last month that "a cell of threat actors based in northern Yemen" had used its Claude AI assistant to help develop software for a guided rocket, a planned ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and a missile variant incorporating a hypersonic glide vehicle. While the Houthis have improved their weapons production, US allies in the region have seen their air defences stretched since the war that began when the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. The United States has used large amounts of the missile interceptors it deploys in the region to protect its bases and its allies, which include Israel and Gulf countries, leaving some vulnerable, Saudi Arabia in particular. "Saudi Arabia, in terms of the sophistication of the military and the development of an integrated air defence network, is not really yet at the level of either Israel or Ukraine, and it just has a very tough job to do," said Farzan Sabet, a Middle East expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute. Saudi Arabia's sheer size makes defence against air attacks harder than defending Israel or a US base, he said. The Houthis have learned from the increased levels of violence in the region in recent years, Sabet said. A Yemeni civil war, in which the Houthis battled Saudi-backed forces from 2014, settled into a shaky ceasefire in 2022. But after Israel’s assault on Gaza in 2023, which followed deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the Houthis began firing rockets at Israel and targeting shipping through the Red Sea. The fallout from the US-Iran war this year reignited the Yemeni civil war, by which time the Houthis had developed new capabilities. "They haven't been sitting still," Sabet said. "They were basically diversifying their supply chains... and as they gain operational experience, they're able to make those weapons more sophisticated."

Report: Netanyahu Seeking Saudi Approval To Join Yemen War Against Ansar Allah - --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking approval from Saudi Arabia to join the war in Yemen against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, Haaretz reported on Monday. The report cited an unnamed diplomatic source who also said that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman opposed Israeli military involvement over concerns about likely domestic backlash.The source linked Netanyahu’s desire to get involved in the war to advancing a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, though Saudi officials in recent years have maintained that the kingdom won’t normalize relations with Israel until there’s a path toward a Palestinian state. Israel’s intervention in the war would also serve Netanyahu’s electoral interests, as a regional escalation involving Israel could bolster his coalition’s chances of gaining enough seats in the Knesset to form a government. The Israeli elections are scheduled to take place on October 27.Israel has launched multiple bombing raids in Yemen in recent years as Ansar Allah imposed a Red Sea blockade on Israeli shipping and launched drone and missile attacks on Israeli territory in response to Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Any more direct Israeli strikes on Yemen would likely trigger Ansar Allah attacks on Israeli territory.So far, President Trump has declined requests from MbS for the US to launch direct airstrikes against Ansar Allah, though the US is deeply involved in the war by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes to support the bombing campaign, which has killed a large number of Yemeni civilians.A US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 remains in effect, and an Ansar Allah official has warned that if the US breaks the truce, it would lead to attacks on US assets and the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US shipping.

Israel Kills 15 Palestinians in Gaza Over Three Days as IDF Intensifies Strikes One Year After 'Ceasefire' Deal - Israeli attacks have killed at least 15 Palestinians in Gaza over the past three days, according to numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, as the IDF has intensified its strikes on the besieged Palestinian territory one year after a ceasefire deal was signed.The Health Ministry said on Saturday that over the past 48-hour period, the IDF killed nine Palestinians and injured 65. On Sunday, the ministry said that it recorded the Israeli killing of six Palestinians and the injury of 28. Over those three days, two other Palestinians died of wounds sustained by previous Israeli attacks, meaning that 17 fatalities have been added to the ministry’s death toll. The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported on Sunday that a seven-year-old child, identified as Jihad al-Ghandour, died of wounds sustained by Israeli gunfire in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Saturday. A separate Israeli attack on Saturday killed an eight-year-old girl, Shahd Abdul-Razzaq al-Najjar. Israeli attacks also continued on Sunday, with at least four Palestinians killed by an airstrike west of Khan Younis, and eight Palestinians, including a pregnant woman, injured by IDF fire in separate attacks across the Strip.The US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal was signed on October 9, 2025, and was supposed to come into effect the following day. Despite Hamas fulfilling its end of the agreement by releasing the remaining Israeli captives and working to find the remains of deceased Israelis, Israel has constantly violated the deal with daily attacks and by taking more territory beyond the so-called yellow line.According to the Gaza Health Ministry’s latest numbers, since the deal was signed, the IDF has killed at least 1,488 Palestinians and wounded 5,254.Back in July, President Trump and the so-called Board of Peace announced that Hamas had agreed to a deal that would see the group give up its weapons, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the US-backed proposal, and the US continues to back Israel’s strikes in Gaza.

Israel Has Killed Over 1,500 Palestinians in Gaza Since Signing So-Called Ceasefire Deal - The Israeli military has now killed more than 1,500 Palestinians in Gaza since signing a so-called ceasefire deal just over one year ago in October 2025, according to numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, as it has continued constant violations of the agreement.The Health Ministry said on Wednesday that over the previous 24 hours, Israeli attacks killed two Palestinians and another died of wounds sustained in an earlier Israeli attack, bringing the post-ceasefire deal death toll to 1,501. Another 5,323 Palestinians have been wounded in that time.In that same period, seven IDF soldiers have been killed in Gaza, including one who was killed by other Israeli soldiers in a friendly-fire incident in February of this year, and two who were killed in September in the accidental explosion of an Israeli military drone. The other four died as a result of “combat” in southern Gaza in October 2025, when Hamas militants were trapped on the Israeli-occupied side of the Strip.Hamas has also not launched any rocket attacks on Israel and has agreed to a US-backed proposal that would see the group give up its weapons, but Israel rejected the potential deal. Despite President Trump calling for Israel to stop bombing Gaza because Hamas agreed to disarm, the US continues backing Israel’s daily attacks. Israeli attacks in Gaza continued on Wednesday, with a woman reported killed by an Israeli strike on an apartment building in Gaza City early in the morning. According to a report from Al Jazeera Arabic, the woman’s three-year-old daughter was with her at the time of the strike and was rescued by Palestinian journalist Ali al-Jafrawi.“I went up to the apartment, there were flames raging everywhere. I went in despite the fire and smoke and heard a child screaming from inside. I went in and found her, so I rescued her immediately. I carried her and handed the girl over to people to take her to the hospital,” al-Jafrawi told Al Jazeera. “I later learned that her name was Maryam Ahmed Ghanem and she was 3 years old. Her father was martyred at the beginning of the war, and her mother was killed in the bombing at dawn today, leaving her alone,” he added.

Israel Has Now Destroyed at Least 48 Southern Lebanese Villages - Since relatively early in the current Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, the IDF has made a priority of destroying Lebanese villages en masse. In late June, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that certain Lebanese villages would have to “disappear,” and over the course of the summer, that’s exactly what has happened. The latest analysis of satellite imagery by the New York Times shows that no less than 48 towns and villages within the “Yellow Line” zone established by Israel in the course of the March invasion have been more or less totally destroyed, with further destruction continuing every day. Katz had been bragging about this for months. Back at the end of July, he estimated 24 municipalities had been destroyed, amounting to some 15,000-20,000 homes. He bragged that Israel was no longer destroying “one house at a time,” but rather demolishing villages wholesale. Apparently that was accurate, because the number of municipalities that are now “disappeared” has roughly doubled since then, even though more than half a dozen US-brokered deals have been reached since then. With demolition continuing daily, that 48 number is liable to continue to grow. It’s not just towns and villages, either, as Israel has notoriously attacked and destroyed an enormous amount of farmland across the south, devastating the mostly agriculture-based economy and raising concerns from the UN that Lebanon could face food insecurity going forward. It’s harvest season for Lebanon’s olive groves, and that has put them in Israel’s crosshairs as well. Already some people have been killed in IDF attacks on the groves, and while the harvest continues, it continues under ongoing Israeli artillery fire. Attacks continued across southern Lebanon today, and Israeli artillery fire was reported against multiple villages, raising concerns that yet more Lebanese territory is about to face outright elimination through military force.

Hezbollah Confirms Explosives Seized at Lebanon Checkpoint Belonged to Them, Demands Their Return - Earlier this week, Lebanese officials seized a truckload of explosives in the northeastern Hermel region, leading to accusations from some of the officials of an impending Hezbollah assassination campaign involving bombs. On Thursday, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah confirmed that the explosives belonged to the group, but insisted that there was no assassination program, and that the explosives were intended exclusively for the group’s militant faction to resist Israel’s ongoing invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon.Fadlallah called on the government to release the two men detained with the truck, and to return the explosives to the group, saying the contents of the truck “belong to the resistance.” He further accused the government of abandoning its responsibility to protect the country. Earlier this week another Hezbollah MP, Ibrahim al-Moussawi, had also rejected the allegation that the group was planning assassinations, while insisting that self-defense was the group’s natural right and similarly saying the government and military had failed to stop the invasion.The Lebanese government has been trying to ban Hezbollah’s militant wing outright, and impose a full monopoly on weaponry to the military. Hezbollah has rejected those disarmament calls, however, citing the ongoing threats of Israeli occupation as proof the organization needs to exist.Fadlallah claimed the allegations of assassination plots were meant to sow division and undermine Hezbollah’s position, saying the government’s moves against Hezbollah primarily served the interests of Israel and the US, not of Lebanon itself.

Trump lifts sanctions on Russian diesel, suggests US may buy amid surging fuel prices - The Trump administration moved Friday to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel as President Donald Trump said Moscow had agreed to release large quantities of the fuel and suggested the U.S. could be a buyer.The surprise announcement is the Trump administration’s latest effort in its struggle to bring the record diesel prices — caused by the ongoing war against Iran as well as Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries — under control ahead of the midterm elections. It also could signal weakening of Trump’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion, Democratic lawmakers said.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had just “concluded a highly successful discussion” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Putin agreed to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel “to the American and Global Marketplace.” Russia would “immediately supply” the fuel “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries,” Trump added.“Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.Immediately after Trump’s post, the Treasury Department issued a general license allowing for the “sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States” of Russian diesel through April 2027.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Trump of using peace talks in Florida between U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators as a “smokescreen” while the U.S. struck a deal with Russia.“It plays into Russia’s hands – allowing it to kill more, wage war for longer, have even less respect for America, and inflict even greater losses and damage on the world,” he said on X.The Trump administration has wrestled for weeks with how to handle record diesel prices that have angered farmers and truckers and driven up the price of goods across the economy. Diesel prices averaged $6.27 a gallon on Friday, down 10 cents from the week before but still $2.60 higher than they were last year, according to the American Automobile Association.Trump last week ruled out an export ban on diesel, instead securing a pledge by European allies to tap their diesel stockpiles, though those governments have since said the announcement largely amounted to preexisting commitments. Trump has previously criticized European allies for continuing to buy Russian oil that was helping to fund its continued campaign against Ukraine. Some European countries insisted the U.S. uphold its sanctions against Russia as a condition for the release, according to minutes from last Friday’s EU ambassadors meeting.Trump’s diesel deal with Russia comes less than a month after he signed the massive Russia sanctions legislation dedicated to the memory of Sen. Lindsey Graham and that allows for tariffs against buyers of Russian oil. The news that Trump would effectively ignore the legislation and possibly buy fuel from Russia directly raised alarm among top Democrats.Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) condemned Friday’s move as a “total betrayal of Ukraine, our European allies and American national security” in a joint statement.“After launching a war with Iran that has spiked gas and diesel prices for every American, the President is resorting to desperate ‘deals’ with a murderous dictator to attempt to clean up his own mess,” they said. “This is what failure looks like.”Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who has repeatedly disagreed with the administration on foreign policy and is not running for reelection, said the president’s deference to Putin was “embarrassing.”“The president has a moral blindness towards Putin,” he said. “Money shouldn’t trump morality.”Russia has restricted diesel exports in recent months as Ukraine has accelerated its attacks on its refineries, contributing to the global shortage of the fuel. It is unclear how Moscow will supply the quantities of the fuel promised by Trump with a large chunk of its refineries out of commission.Energy experts quickly expressed skepticism that the announcement would make a dent in diesel prices. Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said Moscow’s immediate commitment amounts to less than 2% of the total U.S. output of 3.6 million barrels per day.“Beyond the fact that these numbers aren’t very big, this would indicate Russia is willing to end its ban on refined products exports...which I have a hard time seeing without a pause in Ukrainian attacks,” Brew wrote on X. The Kremlin has yet to comment publicly on Trump’s announcement. But Putin’s special presidential representative for investment and economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, celebrated the move within minutes of Trump’s announcement Friday.“Russia-US energy and economic cooperation will continue and benefit global markets and the world,” Dmitriev posted on social media, adding emojis of the Russian and U.S. flags shaking hands.Trump has long called for an end to the fighting, most recently blaming Ukraine for its attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, which, along with the U.S. attacks against Iran, is one of the reasons diesel fuel prices have climbed to record highs. He said in September that the attacks, which have disabled nearly half of Russia’s refining capacity, were “hurting the world” by causing fuel shortages and high diesel prices.“Will the U.S. now pressure Ukraine to unilaterally cease attacks on Russian refineries? Logically it must,” said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. State Department coordinator for sanctions policy. “The damage from Trump’s Iran war keeps growing.”Trump’s announcement Friday comes as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were expected to meet with Ukrainian representatives in Miami to discuss ideas for a new proposal to end the war in Ukraine. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the war a “stalemate” and said a military solution would not likely end the conflict. Kyiv and its allies on Capitol Hill had pushed the legislation, arguing it would give the White House the economic tools it needed to force the Kremlin to the negotiating table. But the bill’s critics had warned that Trump has a history of going soft on Moscow and could decide not to use the powers afforded to him against Russia.

US hopes diesel deal can 'soften' Moscow on peace talks, sources say (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's envoys told Ukrainian officials on Friday that a deal to allow Russian diesel exports is part of a bid to draw Russia back to negotiations after the failure of previous efforts to launch sustained talks to end the war, three people familiar with the meeting told Reuters. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve ‌Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner told the Ukrainians in a meeting in Miami that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not prepared to negotiate an end to his 4 1/2-year-old war in Ukraine and that the deal announced last week could help restart trilateral talks, said two of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The third person said the US relayed to the Ukrainians that the diesel deal could help "soften" Moscow's position in part because it "sends a signal that Trump is open to do things" with Russia. That deal, under which Russia will supply more than 2.25 million barrels of diesel to US and global markets, has triggered a backlash from some US lawmakers, who say it will give Moscow cash to pursue its war without forcing Putin to make concessions to end the conflict. On Monday, Trump publicly defended the deal, calling it "the right choice for the American people." Trump says the agreement will lower US energy prices, which have become a political headache for his Republican Party ahead ⁠of pivotal midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Trump also wanted the Ukrainians to stop striking Russian refineries, Kushner said in the meeting, reiterating that the administration had made that request several times, the two people said. Trump has said Ukraine’s attacks are increasing global fuel prices, but most experts say the war in Iran is the main driver of the high costs. “The idea was that the US could go back to Russia and say ‘See, the Ukrainians stopped striking and we gave you this deal. Now it’s your turn to do something,’” one of the people said. Trump on Sunday announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine days after unveiling the diesel deal. The warring sides have not confirmed the ceasefire, though, and Russia struck energy targets inside Ukraine on Monday as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected a Zelenskiy proposal for a full 60-day truce. A fresh sell-off in chip stocks is rattling global markets once again. The Russian Embassy in Washington and the presidential office in Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A person close to the Kremlin said the diesel deal "is a way to bring Russia back" to the negotiations. One of the people familiar with the meeting said the diesel agreement is just one part of a larger conversation about how to bring Ukraine and Russia back to the negotiating table and end the war. The meeting also touched on security guarantees for Ukraine, the person said, without elaborating. Trump has repeatedly said Putin wants to reach a settlement to end the war — a claim he repeated on Saturday. Ukrainian and European officials have expressed doubts that the ‌Russian leader is ⁠willing to end the military campaign soon. The envoys' comment that Putin is not prepared to end his war suggests that Trump's view is not uniformly held within the administration. Some experts have said the diesel agreement will do little to lower prices in the US. The additional amount provided to the market will be less than a day's supply for the US transport sector alone. The Ukrainian officials attending the meeting were skeptical of the US approach, which they see as using business deals to appease Russia, the two people briefed and one person in the meeting said. The Trump administration has previously tried to entice Putin, including through sanctions relief proposals as well as potential mineral deals. Neither has substantially changed Russia’s core demands or persuaded it to accept a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. The person close to the Kremlin said Putin will only return to the table when "he gets ⁠the remaining 11% of Donbas, which he can present domestically as victory." Ukraine has said it will not hand any more territory to Russia, but that freezing the conflict on the existing battle lines could be the basis for a peace deal. NO THREAT TO WITHHOLD US SUPPORT FOR KYIV In the Miami meeting, Kushner and Witkoff stressed to the Ukrainian officials “all that the US has done for Ukraine,” one of the people said, including providing military and intelligence support to its forces. The Americans did not threaten to cut off that support if Ukraine did not agree to stop ⁠striking Russian refineries, the two people briefed and the person in the meeting said. The meeting in Miami, which also included European officials and virtual appearances by representatives from the World Bank, came after Witkoff and Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv in September. Witkoff said then that the sides had created “new momentum” and that a new round of talks could soon begin. The World Bank declined to comment. Tensions between the US and Ukraine have spiked since the announcement of the US-Russia diesel deal. Zelenskiy called it a "weak decision" by the US ⁠and a “gift to Putin.” Trump said on Saturday that Zelenskiy “could have settled this war many times” and Ukrainians needed to “get a new president.” Part of the meeting in Miami, which spanned several hours, focused on reconstruction funds for Ukraine and a need for Kyiv to formalize plans for investment in the country, the people briefed on the meeting said. The Ukrainians left the meeting without agreeing to anything formally, but signaled that they would be willing to agree to an energy ceasefire so long as Russia did.

Zelensky unleashes on Trump as Russia diesel deal rallies Ukraine’s supporters -- Kyiv’s allies, including those in President Trump’s circle, are rallying around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, pushing back against Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and threats to cut off weapons and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. Zelensky, buoyed by the support, has unleashed criticism against Trump, calling the president “weak” for making a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And he’s challenging Trump’s narrative over high diesel prices, pointing to the U.S. war with Iran as the main driver. “Everybody understands that the prices of diesel, it doesn’t depend on our attacks on diesel in Russia,” Zelensky said in an interview on America’s Newsroom on Fox News, addressing Trump’s favorite news channel during the morning hours, when he’s reportedly most likely to be watching. “Everybody understands that it depends on the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz.” Zelensky’s indignation followed Trump’s announcement on Friday that he was lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower prices in the U.S. — promoting the deal as a salve before the midterms as American voters fret over the cost of living. Trump’s diesel deal drew immediate and wide-ranging pushback from Ukraine’s supporters. Fox News host Mark Levin, who has a direct line to the president, said Putin is the actual obstacle to achieving peace in Eastern Europe and highlighted the Kremlin’s support for Iran in its conflict against the U.S. “Putin started the war. Putin has refused all peace deals with absurd demands or outright rejection. Putin has caused the death of 1 million or more,” Levin wrote Monday morning on the social platform X. “Putin has nuclear missiles aimed at our country. Putin is providing support to the Iranian regime.” Levin echoed the view coming from other people Trump pays attention to, like Fox News host Brian Kilmeade, who threw down over the weekend with co-host Rachel Campos-Duffy — who is married to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy — as she backed Trump’s criticism of Zelensky. “It would be the biggest mistake of his administration to work with Russia,” Kilmeade said, speaking about the president.“That is the modern Hitler of our generation,” he added of Putin. “He is the cause of all the problems in the region, and now, is helping Iran kill our guys and blow up our bases.”Zelensky’s immediate, unsparing pushback triggered outrage from Trump. He repeated a call for Ukraine to hold elections, with Zelensky pushing back that Russia’s refusal to halt strikes against the country makes it impossible to hold a contest. Ukraine is also under martial law, making it illegal under the country’s constitution to hold an election. Zelensky’s pushback was echoed by Ukrainian opposition politician Kira Rudik, leader of the Golos party, underscoring the country’s unity on the global stage, despite domestic disagreements over the Ukrainian president’s leadership. “We are acting according to Ukrainian constitution, and it’s up to no other leader than Ukrainian people who and when we will be electing,” she said in an interview with Sky News. But Trump retaliated further by having U.S. officials over the weekend call European capitals and Kyiv, threatening to cut off intelligence sharing and weapons delivery through Europe if Ukraine refuses to stop striking Russian oil refineries. A European official confirmed to The Hill the pressure campaign, which was first reported by the Financial Times.The majority of U.S.-supplied weapons to Ukraine are provided through European purchases of American munitions under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). PURL-supplied weapons and U.S. intelligence sharing make it possible for Ukraine to hit Russia’s energy infrastructure and other high-value targets deep in the country — a strategy Zelensky defends as crucial in the face of Russia’s energy warfare against Ukraine. On Sunday, Trump announced a sudden energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, although the Kremlin has not confirmed it will abide by the agreement. Hours later, the Russian military continued firing at Ukrainian infrastructure, hitting a power plant in Kharkiv and a gas production facility. Ukraine was apparently caught off guard by the news, but Zelensky has said the country is willing to halt strikes when Russia does. “When we speak about energy ceasefire, it means only one thing, that they don’t attack our energy infrastructure, and we don’t respond on their energy infrastructure,” he said. “This is called energy ceasefire.” Russian strikes against Ukraine’s electricity grid, on top of other civilian infrastructure, is an effort to plunge the country into cold and darkness with winter fast approaching. Ukrainians endured Russian strikes the previous winter with ingenuity — filling hot water bottles to keep warm and adding extra blankets at home — on top of international and government assistance, providing generators and heating tents with charging stations for cellphones and electronics. Ukraine is warning that Russia is escalating that strategy this winter to break Ukraine’s resolve in its defense. With the full-scale war now in its fourth year, Ukraine has seized important battlefield gains over Russia, which led to key assistance from Trump.This includes the president’s offer over the summer to grant Ukraine rights to co-produce Patriot missile interceptors — key air defense munitions that have been depleted amid the U.S. war with Iran — and Trump’s greenlighting of the Russia sanctions bill, signing it into law in September. But Putin is projecting Russian dominance on the battlefield over Ukraine in an effort to convince the Trump administration that Russia is in a strong position and that Ukraine must make concessions. Putin’s analysis of the battlefield is “so far from reality as to resemble hallucinations,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in an analysis on Oct. 2, following a speech Putin gave at the Valdai Discussion Club the day before. The ISW called Putin’s claims “absurd” and part of a cognitive warfare strategy to falsely portray Russian advances sweeping across the battlefield. The ISW added that it cannot determine whether Putin actually believes his claims or is relying on false information from briefers who are incentivized to provide a positive report. A culture of lying is “deeply ingrained in the Russian military command structure,” the ISW wrote.

Bipartisan group of senators demands Trump kill Russian diesel deal - A bipartisan group of senators is calling on President Donald Trump to “immediately reverse course” on his decision to allow Russian diesel imports, accusing the administration of violating federal law and handing Moscow a financial lifeline as it wages war against Ukraine. “President Trump’s decision to allow Russian diesel imports to the U.S. runs directly counter to that law,” the senators said in a statement released Sunday, citing Congress’ 2022 ban on Russian energy imports. “The Administration has also failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation to justify its decision as required by statute.” The rebuke includes four Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and John Curtis (Utah) — along with Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) and Ron Wyden (Ore.). Shaheen is the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Trump announced Friday that Russia would supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel “to the American and Global Marketplace” following a discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Treasury Department subsequently issued a general license allowing Russian diesel imports into the U.S. through April 2027. The move comes as Trump scrambles to try to bring down fuel prices ahead of the midterms, with the Iran war — now in its seventh month — contributing to the surge in costs. In September, the average price of diesel hit a record $6.53 per gallon, according to AAA. “The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians,” the senators wrote. “The Administration must immediately reverse course.”Tillis, a Republican who frequently splits with the Trump administration, had already questioned the deal’s legality Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” pointing to the 2022 law’s conditions for lifting the import ban, including a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.“I do believe there’s a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law,” Tillis said. “We were very clear that Russia is the aggressor. Russia is the one who can end this war by backing out of territory they occupied.”The White House, responding to Tillis’ earlier criticism, pointed POLITICO to a Trump Truth Social post declaring “an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.” The president provided no details or evidence that Moscow had agreed.The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the senators’ joint statement.The diesel agreement also overshadowed talks between U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that easing sanctions without a lasting de-escalation agreement would signal weakness.

Prominent Republican senator says Trump's Russian diesel deal may be illegal (Reuters) - Republican US Senator Thom Tillis on Sunday said President Donald Trump's diesel supply deal with Russia may be illegal and will put American lives at risk, adding to bipartisan criticism of the arrangement announced by the president on Friday. Trump said that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, and his administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel that were designed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its ‌war on Ukraine. “I do believe there’s a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law,” Tillis, an influential Republican from North Carolina who is retiring from the Senate at the end of his term in January, told NBC's "Meet the Press" with Kristen Welker. Prices for diesel — used for agriculture, heating homes and trucking — are near record highs and could hurt Trump's fellow Republicans in next month's congressional elections that will determine whether they maintain their thin majorities in Congress. Analysts have said Trump's agreement with Moscow was unlikely to lead to sustained lower fuel prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday that the Trump administration will follow through with the deal using existing legal authority, adding that the agreement was good for the American people and would bring prices down. "We're going to do it with all the legal authorities we have. So, you know, anyone in Congress who says whether it's an old bill or the current Lindsey Graham bill (that) prohibits us from doing it is wrong," Bessent told the "Fox & Friends" program. Trump last month signed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill into law, called the "Lindsey ⁠O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026," to honor the South Carolina Republican who died in July. Graham, a ⁠longtime Russia hawk, was a staunch backer of the legislation. Tillis is not the first Republican to criticize the deal. Retiring Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska said on X on Friday that "propping up (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities." Mike Pence, Trump's former vice president, called his decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil a "betrayal" of Graham’s legacy and urged the president to "rescind" it. "The president's actions and his comments over the last 24 hours are the exact opposite of the intent of that bill," Tillis said, adding, "I will guarantee you at the first opportunity Putin has to embarrass or undermine President Trump, he will." As Trump's poll numbers have cratered, congressional Republicans have increasingly distanced themselves from the president, on matters ranging from the conflict in Iran to the trade war with Canada. The Senate's No. 2 Republican, John Barrasso of Wyoming, defended the diesel deal on Sunday, telling CBS' "Face the Nation" that Trump is focused on bringing costs down for consumers, ranchers, farmers and truckers. "The president is balancing and has to make tough decisions," Barrasso said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in a call on Sunday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made it clear that the US-Russia diesel deal "is in direct opposition to the efforts of Ukraine, Canada, and our allies to create peace and stability in Europe," his office said in a statement.

Republicans turn on Trump over Russia sanctions waiver - President Donald Trump is facing criticism from Republican lawmakers after waiving key measures in a Russia sanctions law he signed last month, with some warning the move could undermine pressure on Moscow. Trump signed an executive order Friday evening waiving key sanctions and tariffs intended to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine that began in February 2022. The decision drew criticism from lawmakers in both parties and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while receiving praise from a senior Russian official. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the decision “beyond irresponsible.” “What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?” Tillis wrote on X Saturday. “It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day.” Representative Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, posted on X, “The President is prolonging the war, not ending it.” Named after the late GOP Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the legislation was designed to increase pressure on Moscow by targeting Russian officials, banks and the network of tankers used to transport Russian oil and gas amid its ongoing war with Ukraine. Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, also slammed the decision, writing on X: “Lindsey would be appalled.” Republican Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, previously said in an exclusive interview with Newsweek that the proposal risks prolonging the war in Ukraine while doing little to lower fuel prices. The White House told Newsweek that Trump wants to see this “brutal war” come to an end and the act provides him with additional authorities to pursue a peaceful resolution. “Enforcing the sanctions provisions now would impede ongoing U.S. efforts to negotiate a durable and comprehensive peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement Saturday. “The President retains the ability to exercise these authorities at any time if he determines that doing so would advance national interests.” Patrick Casale, a senior adviser to Nevada GOP chairman Michael McDonald, told Newsweek that Trump’s decision is part of a broader effort to bring down fuel prices through measures including the recent diesel deal, while also seeking to end the war in Ukraine. “It’s funny how those Republicans will do anything in their power to hurt him,” Casale said, criticizing GOP lawmakers who have opposed the move. He suggested the decision could help push both sides toward negotiations. Perhaps this will “motivate Ukraine and Russia to sit down and end the war,” Casale said.

Trump announces 'energy ceasefire' between Russia, Ukraine - President Donald Trump on Sunday announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, “effective immediately,” saying both parties had assented to the arrangement. About an hour earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had urged President Donald Trump to push for an “energy ceasefire” in the Russia-Ukraine war, speaking to ABC’s Jonathan Karl on “This Week.” It was not immediately clear whether “both sides” had, in fact, agreed to a ceasefire. After Trump’s announcement, Zelenskyy posted on Facebook: “Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well. We are awaiting details from the American side. For our part, Ukraine always FULLY supports steps toward de-escalation, the protection of lives, and the decisions needed to end the war and guarantee lasting peace.” Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS published a Russian-language story about Trump’s social media post, but did not include any statements on the subject from the Russian side. Zelenskyy said later Sunday that Russia struck the CHPP-5 power plant in Kharkiv after Trump’s announcement. Earlier in the day, Zelenskyy told Karl that Ukraine is “ready for energy ceasefire not to attack energy both sides.” “If the Russians want us not attack their diesel, their refineries and etc.,” he added, “we are asking President Trump, give them signal, not attack energy infrastructure of Ukraine.” Attacks on energy infrastructure have been a notable part of the 4-year-old war. “They attacked 196 times our energy sector,” Zelenskyy said of Russia. He claimed those attacks had killed 153 civilians. On Saturday, Trump escalated his criticism of Ukraine’s leader. “Zelenskyy could have settled this war many times. Many, many times. And he chooses not to,” Trump said. He also said Ukraine was wrong to attack Russia’s energy facilities. “Don’t hit the refineries because that’s a world problem,” Trump said. Those remarks came days after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. On Friday, Zelenskyy said Trump’s move to lift sanctions was a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible,” he told Axios. Zelenskyy expanded on those remarks Sunday: “It gives Putin money and he spends money only on this war. Kill us. Kill our children.” Speaking to Karl, Zelenskyy also responded to Trump’s statement that Ukraine needs a “new leader who can make a deal” by saying it was up to the people of Ukraine to decide when to vote. Still, he suggested that if everyone really wanted Ukraine to hold elections, Russia would need to stop its attacks to make it possible to organize elections. “Tell Putin give us two months, 60 days,” Zelenskyy said.

Trump announces energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine - President Trump claimed Sunday an energy ceasefire deal has been reached between Russia and Ukraine, days after his administration announced a deal to acquire diesel from Russia while lifting sanctions.“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday morning. “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”The president previously announced an energy ceasefire between both countries in mid-September. He wrote on Truth Social at the time that both countries agreed to not hit the other country’s energy infrastructure. Trump said the spike in diesel prices was due to the Russia-Ukraine war, not the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran.Trump announced this latest energy ceasefire deal after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with ABC News’s “This Week,” called for an energy ceasefire from both sides.“It’s fair deal. It’s not the best deal,” Zelesnky said. “The best deal not –– not to have a war to stop Putin. But the first step is ceasefire, energy ceasefire. OK, if they want energy ceasefire, we are open for this. Don’t attack us. Don’t kill our children. We will stop attack your diesel. And I think it’s fair, fair deal.” Zelensky told Axios after Trump’s Sunday announcement that the energy ceasefire “was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree.” Zelensky later said he spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement.“Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well,” the Ukrainian president wrote on social media Sunday. “We are awaiting details from the American side. For our part, Ukraine always FULLY supports steps toward de-escalation, the protection of lives, and the decisions needed to end the war and guarantee lasting peace.” An hour before Trump made his Friday announcement lifting sanctions on Russia, Zelensky said his negotiators were meeting with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in Florida when Ukrainian negotiators said the president planned to speak with Putin, Axios reported.“It’s not honest, really, because we tried to build our relations in the best way,” Zelensky told the outlet. “It looks like that they used this opportunity to meet us from one side, and from the other side called Putin and negotiate this.”Ukrainian strikes have hit Russia’s oil refineries in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, prompting the U.S. president to call for these attacks to stop amid a global fuel shortage stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran.Zelensky has slammed the diesel deal between the U.S. and Russia, which would permit Russia to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace. He called it a “birthday gift” to Putin to “kill us, kill our children.”Trump pushed back on Zelensky’s initial criticism of the deal, accusing his Ukrainian counterpart Saturday of wanting “to make problems for the world” and calling for Ukraine to elect a new president. The deal comes less than a month before the midterm elections, where rising energy prices are dominating voters’ concerns. The Treasury Department said Friday that it would be lifting sanctions on Russian diesel to allow the fuel into the global marketplace. Russia has historically been a major diesel exporter. Last year, it shipped about 2.5 million tons per month, but it was estimated to be shipping around 1 million metric tons in June, Reuters reported. Facilitating the Russian diesel on the market comes as Trump faces an Oct. 18 deadline to decide whether to impose sanctions, as part of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, targeting Russia’s energy industry or waive those authorities in the face of national security concerns.

Trump Again Claims That Russia and Ukraine Have Agreed to an Energy Ceasefire - President Trump on Sunday claimed that Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, repeating a claim he made nearly a month ago that turned out not to be true. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Following the announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios that the energy truce was “news to me,” suggesting that Trump yet again announced an agreement that didn’t exist. Later in the day, Zelensky said in his nightly address that he was ready to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow was ready to do the same, though he made similar comments after Trump’s last announcement. “Ukraine is ready to refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure – and we count on the same readiness from Russia, as well as on the agreement reached by the President of the United States on this matter. We welcome such an agreement,” Zelensky said. So far, Russia has not commented on Trump’s announcement, which came after he repeated criticism of Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The Financial Times reported that the US is threatening to cut off European-funded US arms shipments to Ukraine if the strikes continue, but the attacks are supported by US intelligence and will likely continue unless that support is also cut off. The FT report said the US is also threatening to “cut off intelligence sharing,” but it remains unclear whether the Trump administration is willing to take that step.

Russia Declines To Comment on Trump's Claimed Energy Ceasefire, Rejects Zelensky Call for 60-Day Truce - - The Kremlin on Monday declined to comment on President Trump’s claim that an agreement had been reached between Russia and Ukraine to halt strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of continuing to hit energy targets. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he couldn’t comment on the “energy truce” issue at this point. “Communication is ongoing. As soon as we have something to say on the issue, we will certainly inform you,” he said. In other comments, Peskov rejected Zelensky’s call for a 60-day ceasefire to hold elections in Ukraine, but said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to order a halt to strikes on the day a vote would be held.Peskiv said that if Ukraine “truly wants to hold elections, then the Russian president, as supreme commander-in-chief, will be ready to order the army not to strike Ukraine on election day.”The Kremlin spokesman added that Russia doesn’t “need a ceasefire but a lasting peace that will endure for generations” and criticized Ukraine for launching a major drone attack during Russia’s parliamentary elections last month.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also rejected the idea of a temporary ceasefire. “The goal is one and very simple: to bargain for time in order to secure a respite,” the Russian diplomat said, referring to Zelensky.“He said he was even ready to hold presidential elections if he was given two months to regain his strength. During that period, Europe would be able to supply him with new weapons to continue the terrorist war against the Russian people,” Lavrov added.Zelensky made the comments about a 60-day ceasefire for elections in response to President Trump suggesting that Ukraine needs a new leader to make a deal with Russia. Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, but he has remained in power because no elections have been held, and he has continued to reject the growing calls within Ukraine to hold a vote.On Monday, Zelensky claimed that Russia struck gas production facilities in Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its forces had struck Ukrainian military transport infrastructure, drone production facilities, and troop positions over the previous 24 hours, but made no mention of strikes on energy infrastructure.

Trump Admin Floats Unfreezing Russian Assets In Big Move To Restart Talks - President Trump appears to be busy rolling back years of entrenched Ukraine policy. Starting last week he announced the controversial diesel deal with Putin, and this week Ukraine's Zelensky is complaining that intelligence-sharing has been throttled, and possibly even cut off. The possibility or even likelihood of this heading to another TACO moment aside, what's next? New reporting in the Financial Times gives an idea. The United States has floated a proposal that European countries unfreeze some of Russia's sovereign assets and deposit them in an entity controlled by Washington.The FT report cites four people familiar with the matter, who describe that the idea was formally presented by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during a meeting of Western allies and Ukraine in Miami on Oct.10."The US suggested several possible methods for unfreezing the assets, including for them to be moved into a new special-purpose financial vehicle overseen by Washington," the sources said.This US plan would be enacted in the hope of opening up momentum toward a comprehensive Ukraine peace plan. Moscow has of late rejected any 'temporary' proposal, including a 60-day pause in fighting recently offered by Zelensky. It wants a lasting political settlement and not a mere 'pause' along the front lines.At the Miami meeting were NATO representatives, as well as officials from the US, France, Germany, and the EU."Many ideas have been floated as to how Moscow's frozen assets could be used after the war, the US official added," the FT says.European officials are said to have balked at any initiative to let go of Russian assets. "They were told that this was just simply not going to happen," one source said. For example, Germany has voiced its clear position: "Those are assets that are frozen in Europe and they should remain frozen in Europe. This is our business and we are deciding over ⁠it," Merz said in Brussels ahead of an EU summit. At least €260 billion in sovereign assets belonging to Russia's central bank were frozen in 2022 as a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of that year. Most of this is held at the Belgian securities depository Euroclear. The vast majority, or over €210 billion of the sum, is held in the EU.The last couple years of war has seen the EU work out a scheme wherein payments are made to Ukraine utilizing interest gained from Russa's funds. Washington's sudden willingness to ease off the pressure on Moscow has interesting implications regarding the Iran war... President Trump said on October 13 that he did not believe Russia was helping Iran. This raises a question: is this information really being withheld from the US president?

Ukraine Attacks Two More Refineries After Trump's Proclaimed 'Energy Ceasefire': Kremlin -The Kremlin on Wednesday indicated that work on the Trump-proposed energy truce with Ukraine is continuing, but in contradiction with recent Trump proclamations did not treat it as any kind of done deal currently in effect. President Trump in a late in the day Monday exchange with reporters said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin must come together to end the war. He told the press at the White House that there had been violations of his proposed "energy ceasefire" by both Ukraine and Russia. Trump had previously stated that the warring sides agreed to an energy ceasefire, which Zelensky has balked at, saying specifics of when such a ceasefire is supposed begin must be shared with him. That's when Trump claimed: "Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said: 'you agree.' That's why. They agreed because I said they agreed." More evidence has emerged Wednesday that this supposed 'agreement' is still being violated almost on a daily basis. The Kremlin has announced two more oil refineries have just been attacked by Ukrainian drones: Russia Deputy PM Novak says Ukraine attacked two refineries in Russia today; Ukraine are not showing any signs of moving towards an "energy truce". TASS has identified these as the Saratov and Ryazan refineries. These refineries have been targeted previously in the war, with Saratov in particular having suffered a full shutdown from damage in September 2025, during which time it was repaired. State media has been circulating the fresh reports: Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has meanwhile issued a fresh press briefing wherein he said the government is committed to resolving the Ukraine conflict but that "The risk of sabotage by European countries does exist." Ironically Europe is currently accusing Moscow of doing just this. "The US, specifically its negotiators and President Trump, is making efforts to help steer the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis toward peace," Peskov stated. But then he lashed out at the EU and NATO, saying: "Europeans are taking a different approach: they are doing everything they can to ensure that this war continues." "There’s a lot of media hype around all of this right now, and much of it doesn’t correspond to reality; it’s pure fiction." He was further quoted as saying: Work on the possibility of an "energy ceasefire" is continuing. But he also conceded: "There are no agreed-upon meetings on the agenda." Peskov hinted at the usual backchannels, however: "This work is ongoing discreetly and it will continue discreetly," he added. As for Ukraine's Zelensky, his first reaction to Trump earlier declaring an 'energy ceasefire' was to say it was "news to me" - strongly suggesting no such thing is in place. Both sides have continued to send wave after wave of devastating drone waves against the other, including against energy infrastructure.

Defiant Zelenskyy Resumes Russian Refinery Drone Strikes A defiant President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times on Thursday morning that Ukrainian forces will resume attacks on Russian refineries. The move certainly seems more political than anything else. Such attacks have been described as one of the drivers behind the global refining crisis, which has collided with Strait of Hormuz disruptions. "The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We're done," Zelenskyy told the FT. He said Kiev had suspended energy strikes for three days at the Trump administration's request.Even before that, the Trump administration had requested many times that Kiev stop bombing Russian refineries, but Ukraine remained mostly defiant and ramped up those attacks leading up to the US midterm elections. One can only wonder whether the escalation was politically motivated, worsening the diesel crisis and translating into consumer pain at US pumps. Zelenskyy's new narrative is that the resumption of drone attacks on Russian refineries is a response to what he described as a "dangerous" cutoff of US intelligence sharing and the degradation of Starlink service.Trump has denied cutting off intelligence sharing. Elon Musk said the US government controls Starshield's speed and usage limits, the military satellite network built on Starlink technology. Zelenskyy's office said Thursday that it had lifted the speed restrictions.A growing rift is apparent between Zelenskyy and the Trump administration, as the Ukrainian president went on a media roadshow this week to push the narrative that he feels "betrayed" by Trump. Yet this should be seen as theatrics, a performative stunt by the former comedian who knows how to put on a good act before the US midterms. Last week, Trump said it was "time to get a new leader" after Zelenskyy ignored pleas to stop strikes on Russian refineries, one of the reasons why US diesel prices recently topped a national average of $6.50 a gallon. Musk has openly agreed, saying on X, "I agree, time for Ukraine to get a new leader."The breakdown in relations comes ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. The International Energy Agency warned yesterday that the "gasoil market balance will remain tight well into 2027."Diesel prices in the US are back at their highs despite Trump's diesel deal with Moscow to add more barrels to the global market.

Ukraine Hits Russian Oil Refinery as Zelensky Says He's 'Done' With Trump's Energy Truce -- A Ukrainian drone attack hit an oil refinery inside Russia on Thursday as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “done” with an energy ceasefire that was announced by President Trump on Sunday.While there was never any real truce agreement between the two sides, Ukraine did appear to refrain from hitting Russian refineries for a few days as its massive drone attacks inside Russia continued. “The block (on attacking refineries) is out. We’re done,” Zelensky told the Financial Times.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that Russia didn’t perceive that Ukraine ever halted the attacks on energy targets. Russia has also continued to pummel energy infrastructure inside Ukraine following Trump’s announcement. Russian media reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on Thursday sparked a fire at an oil refinery in Russia’s Ryazan Region. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its forces shot down 166 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian regions overnight.So far, there’s been no comment from President Trump or other US officials on Ukraine’s attack on a Russian oil refinery. The US has reportedly been threatening to cut intelligence and weapons shipments to Ukraine if the attacks don’t stop, though the strikes on refineries deep inside Russia are known to be supported by US intelligence and may not be possible without it.Zelensky said he believed a reduction in the capability of the military version of SpaceX’s Starlink, known as Starshield, that impacted Ukrainian drone operations this week was an intentional move by the US, not a technical issue, though the satellite systems have since been fully restored. “It was not a technical problem, it was the will,” he said.Russia is leaning into the idea of a split between Trump and Zelensky, with Peskov saying that Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy targets are “coming into serious contradiction with the peace efforts of the United States and of the American negotiators who are indeed making very vigorous efforts to somehow initiate the peace process.”

Musk Suggests Trump is Behind Internet Outage in Ukraine – (news video) Russia launched a new round of punishing attacks on Ukraine as vital internet service in the war-torn country is being restored, according to a Ukrainian defense ministry source speaking anonymously. Ukrainian officials say restrictions from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network had caused some drones to lose their connection while flying. Musk is pushing back and pointing a finger at President Donald Trump for the outage. NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez reports for TODAY.

Zelensky Says He'll Hold Elections If Putin Agrees to a 60-Day Ceasefire - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that he would hold elections in Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, comments that came after President Trump said Ukraine needed a new president to reach a deal with Russia.Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, but he has remained in power because no elections have been held, and he has continued to reject the growing calls within Ukraine to hold a vote.Trump said on Saturday that he suggested Ukraine “get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never does.”Responding to Trump, Zelensky said in an interview with ABC News that Trump should tell Putin to agree to a 60-day ceasefire. “So please tell Putin, give us two months, 60 days off. Total ceasefire, 60 days, and we will organize elections,” he said. “Of course, we will be ready for any choice of our people, exactly Ukrainian people.”Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have justified not holding an election by pointing to Ukraine’s constitution, which prohibits elections during martial law, first declared after Russia’s invasion and extended since, though Zelensky suggested back in 2023 that he could hold one if the US and other Western countries paid for it. Zelensky also offered criticism of a deal Trump announced that would involve the US importing Russian diesel, calling it a “birthday gift” to Putin that would allow Russia to “kill us, kill our children.”Trump also lashed out at Zelensky on Saturday over Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries, as he’s attempting to shift blame for the global energy crisis from the US war with Iran to the Russia-Ukraine war. However, it’s been widely reported that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are supported by US intelligence.

Zelensky Says Ukraine's Backers Didn't Provide Early Warning on Russian Missile Launch for Second Night - - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday night that Ukraine’s Western backers didn’t provide an early warning for a Russian ballistic missile attack for the second night in a row.“A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Once again, no early warning from our partners,” the Ukrainian leader wrote on X.Earlier in the day, other Ukrainian officials downplayed the lack of an early warning for a Russian ballistic missile attack that occurred on Monday night, saying that the US and other NATO countries have previously failed to detect Russian missiles launched. Colonel Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said that the typical early warning for the October 12 strikes was delayed. “The intelligence data that everyone is talking about now varies. There is intelligence utilizing satellite communications that not only the US but also other NATO countries share with Ukraine,” he said. “There are moments when this information fails to arrive. This is not the first case… If there were certain technical issues this time, I believe the experts can sort it out. And we will resolve this problem together with our partners,” Inhat added.Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Zelensky, said it was not the first time Ukraine’s allies had failed to detect a ballistic missile launch from an S-400, a Russian air defense system that can also be used to strike ground targets. “There are certain nuances. It is not worth making conclusions prematurely,” he said in a Facebook post on Monday night. Zelensky’s comments have been tied to recent reporting that the US has been threatening to cut weapons shipments and intelligence to Ukraine if it doesn’t end attacks on Russian oil refineries, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that the US was still sharing intelligence, which was also reported by Ukrainian media. It doesn’t appear that Ukraine has targeted any oil refineries inside Russia over the past two days, even as its massive drone attacks inside Russia have continued. Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks, including the strikes on oil refineries, are known to be supported by US intelligence. Zelensky said in his post on Tuesday night that Russia struck a power plant in Kyiv and accused Moscow of violating an energy ceasefire announced by President Trump, though Moscow has declined to comment on Trump’s announcement and has said its discussions with the US on the issue are ongoing.

Heavy Russian Strikes Kill Nine People Across Ukraine, Pound Power Plants - Heavy Russian strikes pounded targets across Ukraine overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, killing at least nine people and leaving hundreds of thousands without power as attacks hit multiple power plants. Photos show that at least one residential building in Kyiv’s Desnianskyi district was hit during the barrage, where Ukrainian officials say at least two civilians were killed.The Russian Defense Ministry announced strikes on multiple power stations in Kyiv and Kharkiv, despite President Trump announcing several days ago that the two sides had reached an energy ceasefire, though both Russia and Ukraine made clear at the time that no such deal existed. Axios reported on October 11, citing a White House official, that the US proposal involved only halting attacks on oil refineries, not on power plants or electricity grids. The official also acknowledged that Russia had not agreed to the proposal.Ukraine appeared to have refrained from targeting Russian oil refineries for several days, though on Wednesday Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, accused Ukraine of attacking two refineries in Russia’s Saratov and Ryazan, allegations that Ukrainian officials denied. At least one civilian was killed in Russia’s Saratov region during the massive Ukrainian drone barrage. According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, a total of 902 Ukrainian drones were shot down over multiple Russian regions and the Black Sea during the massive Russian attack.According to Russia’s TASS news agency, 493 Ukrainian drones were launched toward the Moscow Oblast, one of the largest attacks on the region. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said that 180 drones were intercepted near Moscow while the rest were taken down at a further distance.

Black Sea Shipping Hit With Escalating Attacks - Drone attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea on Tuesday sank one ship and damaged another. The cargo ship Dignity, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged vessel, was sunk. The Ukrainian-operated coastal freighter Chelsea, a Malta-flagged vessel, was disabled. Both ships were attacked approximately 20 miles off the coast of Bulgaria.Officials in Bulgaria, which joined NATO in 2004, the EU in 2007 and the “Eurozone” this year, said five crew members were rescued from the Dignity, while 11 crew members remain missing as search efforts continue. All 15 crew members from the Chelsea were rescued, including 7 Ukrainian citizens.The attacks are the latest in a spiral of escalation that has been building since the summer. Last week, drones sank the Alfa Watan, a Togo-flagged cargo ship. All 10 of its crew members are missing and presumed dead. On Oct. 7, Bulgarian President Iliana Yotova blamed Russia for the deteriorating security conditions in the Black Sea but did not formally accuse it of sinking the Alfa Watan.On Tuesday, Bulgarian officials again refrained from blaming Russia for the attacks, but the Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev made a point of “summoning” the Russian Ambassador, Eleonora Mitrofanova, and telling her, “it makes no sense for Ukraine to destroy its own ships in the Black Sea, and the results of these strikes favor Russia’s interests.” Mitrofanova countered that a “third party” could have conducted Tuesday’s attacks.Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, has been willing to lay blame. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russia for sinking the Alfa Watan.On Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha directly blamed Russia for the attacks on the Dignity and Chelsea. In a post on X, he said:“Russia’s latest attack on commercial vessels near Bulgaria’s territorial waters, which injured Ukrainian and Azerbaijani citizens, once again demonstrates Moscow’s deliberate disregard for civilian lives and maritime security in the Black Sea. We urge our partners to step up pressure on Russia, strengthen sanctions, and take decisive action to hold it accountable and protect freedom of navigation. The Black Sea is a lifeline for global food security. Russia is attacking it to weaponize hunger and hold the world hostage. This must be met with strength.” It remains unclear whether Russia conducted these attacks, but both Russia and Ukraine have conducted confirmed attacks on each other’s interests in the Black Sea. Last week, Ukraine struck an oil tanker with drones off the Russian coast near Sochi. Fire raged and thick black smoke blanketed the resort city where Russia hosted the Olympic Winter Games in 2014.

NATO urged to act after Black Sea ships sunk in suspected Russian attack - Bulgaria has requested NATO help as it investigates the latest in a series of drone attacks on commercial shipping close to its Black Sea shoreline, which looks out onto a major battleground for Russian and Ukrainian unmanned vehicles. Drones struck two cargo ships near the NATO member’s coastline overnight, sinking one vessel, officials said on Tuesday. Officials said six crew members were rescued from the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity, which sank about 17 miles east of Krapets, a village near Bulgaria’s border with Romania. Another 10 people are thought to be still missing. Another ship, identified as the Maltese-flagged Chelsea-3, broadcast a distress signal at 1:30 a.m. local time roughly 18 miles east of the seaside town of Byala, south of Krapets, officials said. Bulgarian lawmakers said the ship is owned by Ukraine and was carrying seven Ukrainian citizens and eight Azerbaijani nationals. Tracking data shows the Chelsea-3 left the northeastern Turkish city of Giresun on Saturday, bound for Moldova’s Giurgiulești port. The HS Dignity departed from Algeria on October 5 and was scheduled to arrive in Romania on Thursday. All crew members were rescued, and three drones were found either on the deck or onboard the Chelsea-3, authorities in Sofia said. Five crew members received medical treatment. The incidents come roughly a week after two merchant ships were attacked by aerial and seaborne drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, one day after another drone attack sank a cargo vessel. “The repeated attacks on commercial vessels in the immediate vicinity of Bulgaria’s territorial waters are wholly unacceptable,” Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova said on Tuesday. Related video: Russia demands Ukraine stay out of NATO: Now all 32 NATO countries gather in Kyiv (Dagens.com US) Moscow and Ukraine have attacked one another’s grain and agricultural sites in and around the Black Sea, raising fears about food supplies far beyond the region because both countries are major grain exporters. Experts say Russia increased its strikes on grain-carrying ships around Ukrainian ports throughout the summer of 2026. Most of Ukraine’s grain exports leave the country through ports in the southern Odesa region. Ukraine, meanwhile, bombarded Russia’s Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk in mid-August, forcing Russia to redirect its grain exports. Roughly 40 percent of Russia’s grain exports pass through Novorossiysk. Both countries regularly use drones to carry out their assaults. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Russia of carrying out the attack and said Moscow had a “deliberate disregard for civilian lives and maritime security in the Black Sea.” “We urge our partners to step up pressure on Russia, strengthen sanctions, and take decisive action to hold it accountable and protect freedom of navigation,” the Ukrainian diplomat said. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev did not explicitly blame Moscow but said the incident “benefits the Russian Federation” and announced he would summon the Russian ambassador to Sofia.

Focus on Fracking

Monday, October 19, 2026

US oil supplies are lowest in 42½ years; US stocks of oil and oil products lowest in 23 years; barrels refined is October record

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