US oil inventories see largest drop on record, including largest withdrawal from Strategic Petroleum Reserve in history

US oil prices finished lower for the second time in three weeks on repeated reports that peace in the Middle East was imminent….after rising 10.5% to $105.42 a barrel last week after Trump rejected Iran’s peace terms and said the Mideast ceasefire was on life support, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for June delivery jumped more than 2% on Asian markets early Monday, after reports of a drone attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, and continued to rise on Monday morning in London as traders feared a renewed Middle East conflict after US President Donald Trump sent a new warning to Iran via social media, then rose to their highest in nearly two weeks on Monday morning in New York on escalation fears fueled by fresh drone attacks in the Middle East and renewed threats out of Washington and Tehran, and settled $3.24 higher at $108.66 a barrel as worries over supply disruption​s ​d​ue to the Iran war offset a report that the U.S. had agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian crude during peace talks…however, June oil fell by 2% in early Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. President​ Trump announced he had suspended a planned strike on Iran to allow for negotiations to end the war in the Middle East, but were barely lower as markets opened for that contract's last day of trading in New York​, after President Trump said he had put on hold ​the planned Tuesday attacks on Iran amid the current ceasefire, and finished trading 89 cents lower at $107.77 a barrel after Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran ​had made progress in talks, and that neither country wanted a resumption of military action, while the more actively traded benchmark US light sweet crude for July delivery settled 23 cents lower at $104.15 a barrel….with markets now citing the price of the benchmark US light oil contract for July, oil prices remained subdued during Asian trading on Wednesday morning, holding near $104 a barrel, as markets weighed mixed signals from US president Donald Trump on the prospects of the war on Iran, then extended their decline Wednesday morning in New York despite an EIA report showing the largest US crude inventory drawdown in history, on hopes ​f​or a detente in the U.S.-Iran war after Trump said he was, for now, prioritizing diplomacy over renewed attacks, and settled $5.89 lower at $98.26 a barrel after three crude tankers ​successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and as U.S. President Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages….however, oil prices were up by more than 3% across global markets again on Thursday, after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader had issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, denting hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and rebounded as markets opened in New York on those same reports that Iran's leader had order​ed that the country's enriched uranium ​could not be sent abroad, but abruptly reversed course Thursday afternoon, turning from gains to losses​ on news that the US and Iran might be only hours away from announcing terms for peace negotiations, and settled $1.91 lower at $96.35 a barrel following claims on Al-Arabiya TV that US and Iran had reached a draft agreement, which included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that the deal would be announced in the following few hours…oil prices climbed in early Asian trading on Friday, as skepticism grew that U.S.-Iran negotiations would produce a breakthrough, with all the major sticking points still unresolved despite claims of progress, and continued higher as uncertainty around the Iranian uranium stockpile and control of the critical Strait of Hormuz continue​d to pose challenges to a breakthrough, then rose as markets opened in New York as conflicting statements from Tehran and Washington cast doubt on the progress of peace talks aimed at ending a conflict that had led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, but only settled 25 cents higher at $96.60 a barrel as an analyst noted that “they keep changing the news before the ink is dry on the newspaper.” even as traders worried that the US and Iran would be unable to reach a peace agreement that would allow shipping traffic to return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz…oil prices thus ended 8.4% lower for the week, while the benchmark US crude contract for July delivery, which had settled the prior week at $101.02 a barrel, ended 4.4% lower…

meanwhile, domestic natural gas prices also finished lower for the second time in three weeks, on a larger-than-expected inventory build and on an unsupportive weather forecast for the last week of May….after rising 7.4% to $2.960 per mmBTU last week as production from US wells fell to a 15 week low and as the forecast for the season’s first heat wave led to expectations of​ widespread air conditioning demand, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery opened 8.2 cents higher on Monday, as updated forecasts for increased cooling demand and short covering provided support, but struggled to rise from that level and settled 6.4 cents higher at $3.024 per mmBTU on those forecasts for warmer-than-expected weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks, a​nd also on the lower​ well output of recent weeks….June natural gas opened 3.0 cents higher on Tuesday, as increased short-term cooling demand directed prices higher for a second session, and settled 9.0 cents higher at $3.114 per mmBTU​, as widespread heat across the Lower 48 and a drop in production from the Haynesville helped prices sidestep a hiccup in LNG feedgas demand….natural gas prices opened 5.6 cents lower on Wednesday, as summer-like temperatures were expected to subside ​i​n key demand areas of the country, and settled 11 cents lower at $3.004 per mmBTU as weather demand eased, supply in storage remained elevated, and geopolitical uncertainty cast a long shadow over energy markets as Iran war tensions festered…natural gas prices opened 2.4 cents higher on Thursday, but slid to an intraday low of $2.993 at 10:35 AM following the weekly storage report, as bearish weather expectations dominated market sentiment, but recovered to settle 1.4 cents higher at $3.018 per mmBTU as stronger demand forecasts and lower ​well output supported prices​, despite a larger-than-expected storage build and reduced LNG flows…June natural gas futures drifted lower overnight and were trading below the psychologically important $3 barrier early Friday, as traders assessed the bearish inventory data and largely unsupportive forecasts, and settled 11.1 cents lower at $2.907 per mmBTU​, as traders digested a stout supply overhang and a bearish demand setup for the last stretch of May, which left June natural gas 1.8% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending May 15th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 101 billion cubic feet to 2,391 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 33 billion cubic feet, or 1.4% above the 2,358 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on May 15th of last year, and 149 billion cubic feet, or 6.6% above the five-year average of 2,242 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 15th of May over the most recent five years….the 101 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 95 billion cubic foot injection into storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, but it was less than the 119 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, while more than the average 92 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same mid May week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 15th indicated that with only small changes to exports and refinery demand from a week ago, we again pulled oil out of our stored crude supplies for the fourth consecutive week and for 26th time in fifty-one weeks, with this week’s record withdrawal due in part to an increase in demand that the EIA could not account for ….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 116,000 barrels per day to 6,016,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 424,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 112,000 barrels per day to 5,604,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 412,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending May 15th, an average of 4,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 3,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 495,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 8,000 barrels per day lower at 13,702,000 barrels per day.  Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 14,606,000 barrels per day during the May 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,319,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 15th, an average of 80,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a record average of 2,541,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending May 15th averaged a rounded 830,000 more barrels per day than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.  To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -830,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Since 56,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 775,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore useless.... But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).

This week’s r​e​cord 2,541,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 1,123,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while a record 1,417,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the eighth consecutive Iran war related withdrawal from the SPR and the largest in SPR history, following a nearly continuous string of weekly additions to the SPR from September 2023 to February 2026, which had followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports slipped  to 5,786,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1.5% less than the 5,871,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 8,000 barrels per day lower at 13,702,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,291,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 9,000 barrels per day lower at 411,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.6% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 41.3% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 91.6% of their capacity while processing those 16,319,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 15th, down from 91.7% the prior week….the 16,319,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week w​e​re 1.0% less than the 16,490,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending May 16th of 2025, and ​w​ere 1.6% less than the 16,578,000 barrels that were being refined during the pre-pandemic week ending May 17th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.9%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…

With the decrease in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 446,000 barrels per day to 9,339,000 barrels per day during the week ending May 15th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 222,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was 2.3% less than the 9,561,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending May 16th of last year, and 5.5% less than the gasoline production of 9,883,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending May 17th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 214,000 barrels per day to 5,006,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 124,000 during the prior week.  After that production increase, our distillates output was 6.2% more than the 4,712,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending May 9th of 2025, but 3.8% less than the 5,206,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending May 17th, 2019....

​W​ith this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the fourteenth week in a row, decreasing by 1.545,000 barrels to 215,711,000 barrels during the week ending May 15th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,084,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 13,000 barrels per day to 8,767,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline rose by 244,000 barrels per day to 547,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 232,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day…  After forty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-five weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.4% lower than last May 16th’s gasoline inventories of 225,522,000 barrels, and about 5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…

After this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillates rose for the fifteenth time in twenty-seven weeks, increasing by 372,000 barrels to 102,906,000 barrels during the week ending May 15th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 190,000 barrels during the prior week​.​.. Our distillates supplies rose by more this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 124,000 barrels to 3,552,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 22,000 barrels per day to 1,573,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 41,000 barrels per day to 173,000 barrels per day... After 24 additions to distillates inventories over the past 45 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.2% lower than the 104,132,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on May 16th of 2025, and about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after near record oil exports and an increase demand that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 26th time over the past year, decreasing by 7,863,000 barrels over the week, from 452,876,000 barrels on May 8th to 445,013,000 barrels on May 15th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 4,306,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 2% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were 25.4% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the middle of May over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have been less extreme since, and as of this May 15th were 0.4% above the 443,158,000 barrels of oil in commercial storage on May 16th of 2025, but were 3.0% less than the 458,845,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 10th of 2024, and were 2.2% less than the 455,168,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on May 12th of 2023…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by seven over the week ending May 22nd, as the count of rigs targeting oil was up by ten, the number of rigs targeting natural gas was down by three, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 22nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (15th) and this week’s (May 22nd) count, the third column shows last week’s May 15th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was Friday, the 23nd of May, 2025…

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BLM Ready to Auction Land in OH Wayne Nat’l Forest for Drilling -- Marcellus Drilling News - Wayne National Forest map (click for larger version) Last December, MDN brought you the fantastic news that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had opened a public scoping period to receive public input on 41 oil and gas parcels totaling 2,795 acres that may be included in a September 2026 lease sale in the Wayne National Forest (WNF) located in southeastern Ohio (see BLM Plans Ohio Wayne Nat’l Forest Lease Sale for September 2026). This is the first lease sale held in WNF since March 2017 (the first Trump administration). The comment period ended Jan. 15, 2026. But what’s this? The BLM is once again seeking public comments on the same list of properties up for lease/auction. This time, the public has until June 17, 2026, to comment,

Major gas line leak forces evacuations, closes 12th Street in Strasburg - A major gas line leak prompted evacuations and a road closure in Strasburg on Thursday afternoon, according to local police. The Strasburg Police Department said in a social media post made around 1:10 p.m. that the leak was reported on 12th Street NE. Authorities said nearby businesses were evacuated as a precaution while police and fire crews responded to manage the situation. 12th Street was closed to all traffic Thursday afternoon, and motorists were urged to avoid the area and use alternate routes. Emergency responders were working to secure the scene and ensure public safety, police said. No injuries were immediately reported, and additional details about the cause of the leak were not immediately available. Officials said updates would be provided as more information becomes available.

Infinity Natural's Ohio Utica Deal Reshapes Growth And Valuation Story - Infinity Natural Resources focuses on Appalachian energy assets, and the Ohio Utica acquisition significantly expands its footprint in that region. For investors watching US shale producers, this move places NYSE:INR more clearly in the group of companies with a scaled position in a single, established basin.With production already close to double prior levels and a larger borrowing base in place, Infinity is signaling that it intends to run a larger business than before the deal. The share repurchase program adds another element for investors to track, since capital returns now sit alongside a larger drilling and development plan as key parts of the NYSE:INR story.  (investment analysis follows)

East Daley has highlighted the outlook for growing gas demand in the Midwest, spurred by data center development and opportunities to convert older coal plants. TC Energy owns several key pipelines in the region, including ANR, Columbia Gas and Crossroads, and is well positioned to capitalize on this growth (see map from TRP investor relations).The company recently completed two successful non-binding open seasons that confirm the market upside.One, an open season to expand Columbia Gas to serve new load in the Columbus, OH area, closed on Jan. 9. That project had targeted 500 MMcf of new capacity, yet the open season received ~1.5 Bcf/d in total bids, TRP said. It is unclear if Appalachian Supply is designed to meet customer interest from that open season.A second open season to expand the 300 MMcf/d Crossroads Pipeline by 1.5 Bcf/d closed in mid-March. That open season was 2.5 times oversubscribed. TRP is still working through the bids to determine the best approach to expand Crossroads, management said on the earnings call.It is unclear if the two open seasons are related. Crossroads spans just over 200 miles from northwest Ohio to the Indiana/Illinois border, where several developers have proposed new data centers around Chicago. TC Energy could potentially build a lateral from Crossroads to connect to Columbia Gas Transmission, allowing Appalachian supply to flow into the Chicago market.Another option is to use Panhandle Eastern or ANR as connectors between Columbia Gas and Crossroads. On the earnings call, executives said they intend to link assets with access to low-cost supply, like Columbia Gas, to systems like ANR that serve long-duration demand. Taken together, the projects suggest TRP is positioning Columbia Gas and Crossroads to capture accelerating gas demand tied to data centers, electrification and new gas-fired generation across the Midwest and Northeast.

Natural gas pipeline proposed in Campbell, Pendleton Counties draws criticism from property owners - — WCPO asked anyone from Northern Kentucky who had a potential news story to join us at our Alexandria "Let's Talk" event, and Rebecca and Todd Kirchoff sat down with us to share their concerns. The Kirchoffs told us about the NKY Gate Enhancement pipeline project that would run directly through their property.The 25-mile natural gas pipeline proposal would cross Bracken, Pendleton and Campbell counties, where the Kirchoff's farm and two homes sit in California, Ky., into Hamilton County, Ohio.TC Energy is the company driving the effort to build the 36-inch steel-coated line to replace 43 miles of existing aging pipeline. According to a survey done by the Kirchoffs, the existing line would run parallel to the newly proposed line side-by-side on their property, amounting to a 100-foot total easement cutting through the farm. TC Energy has been negotiating an additional 75-foot temporary easement on their property for staging and construction access, amounting to 175 feet that would be cleared, excavated and otherwise disturbed according to the family. "Every tree you see from that direction, through that direction, will be gone. They will take every tree," Todd said, gesturing to two wooded areas lining both sides of his gravel drive.  Todd said both he and his sister have asked TC Energy to preserve some oak trees on their property that they believe to be more than 100 years old. Their family has owned the property since 1967. The potential construction scar isn't the main concern for Todd and Rebecca.They said the original contract they had with Duke Energy Kentucky allowed them to tap into the natural gas line on their property for cheap, readily available fuel to both of their homes, and the construction of the new line would eliminate their access to a farm tap. "My whole house is gas, natural gas," Rebecca said.Todd said he's worried that alternatives, electric or propane appliances and heat would be more expensive to use, and conversion costs could be prohibitive in both of the homes on their property.Rebecca said Duke had offered them $25,000 each as compensation for conversion costs, but Todd said the family was looking at tens of thousands in expenses, especially if they decided to install propane tanks on their property."It's $5,000 to put the tank in," he said, pointing to the ground next to his home. "My house is $10,000," Rebecca added.We reached out to both TC Energy and Duke Energy for comment on the family's concerns.TC Energy responded with a statement:  "Our proposed NKY Gate Enhancement Project is intended to replace portions of aging natural gas infrastructure with state-of-the-art steel pipe. The project is designed to enhance the safety, integrity and reliability to serve current and future natural gas demand in the region, and we’re committed to being a trusted partner by providing transparent and timely communication as the project progresses." As for the farm taps, TC Energy referred us to Duke. A Duke Energy spokesperson declined an interview and sent a statement instead:"Duke Energy Kentucky continues to work with TC Energy and the Kentucky Public Service Commission on how to best serve these customers who may be impacted by the pipeline replacement project. Our top priority will always be safely serving our customers with reliable utility service in accordance with applicable laws and regulations."  Todd said that part of the problem in finding solutions between the two corporations was a lack of transparency.Through tears, Rebecca said she just wanted to ensure the family would be able to remain on the property they've known for decades. "I don't plan on going anywhere else," she said. "I love my farm."

MPLX Marcellus Utilization Hits 94%, Driving Gathering Expansion - Marcellus Drilling News - In 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged with the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, now plays on a much larger stage, owning and operating major assets in the Permian Basin, the Bakken Shale, and the Marcellus/Utica. However, the M-U still plays a starring role for the company. MPLX recently issued its first quarter 2026 update. MPLX is seeing increased natural gas gathering throughput in both Marcellus and Utica, indicating robust upstream activity.

23 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 11 – 17 -- Marcellus Drilling News - - The Marcellus/Utica region received 23 new drilling permits last week, May 11 – 17, up from the 22 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 14 of last week’s permits. Ohio issued 4 new permits. West Virginia issued 5 new permits last week. The drillers who received new permits included: EOG Resources, EQT, Expand Energy, and Range Resources. Bradford County | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Marion County |  Ohio County | Range Resources Corp | Susquehanna County | Washington County

Midwest Demand Growth Drives $1.5B Columbia Gas Expansion - East Daley Analytics --TC Energy (TRP) plans to invest $1.5B to meet load growth on the Columbia Gas system, part of a trend of growing natural gas demand from data centers and power plants based in the Midwest.  TRP announced the expansion, the Appalachian Supply project, on May 1 in its 1Q26 earnings update. The 800 MMcf/d expansion is backed by a 20-year contract with an investor-grade utility and has an expected build multiple of 7.3x, the company said. The project will serve new power generation load.Appalachian Supply has an anticipated in-service date in 2030, and can potentially be expanded up to 2 Bcf/d with additional compression. On the earnings call, executives said they expect demand on the Columbia Gas system will expand 4 Bcf/d by 2035. Columbia Gas Transmission extends from Ohio through the mid-Atlantic region. The sprawling system spans nearly 12,000 miles and 10 states, connecting to Appalachian production and storage, as well as major interstate pipelines like ANR, Texas Eastern, Tennessee, and Panhandle Eastern.

McKean County Injection Well Operating Without Permit from PA DEP -- Marcellus Drilling News -   On May 14, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) issued a notice of violation to Sandstone Development LLC for operating the McKay 7A conventional well as an oil and gas wastewater injection disposal site in McKean County without a state permit. Which may sound like a major, flagrant (intentional) violation. But it’s not. Sandstone holds a federal EPA permit allowing daily injections of up to 10,500 gallons. Sandstone said it was unaware that, in addition to the federal EPA permit, it is also required to seek and obtain a state DEP permit for the same thing. In other words, Sandstone didn’t ask DEP, “Mother, May I?”

PA DEP Report: Leachate from Landfills with Shale Cuttings Safe -- Marcellus Drilling News - Can we PLEASE now put to bed the pervasive lie spread by anti-shale people that drill cuttings (the leftover rock and dirt that comes out of the ground when drilling a shale well) are somehow glow-in-the-dark radioactive and if disposed of in a landfill will cause people who live near such a landfill to die from radiation poisoning? A two-year study by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) concluded that radium levels in landfill wastewater (leachate) do NOT pose a risk to human health.

EQT Corp: gas producer updates investors after latest quarterly earnings - US natural gas producer EQT Corp. recently reported its latest quarterly results, updating investors on production levels, capital spending and shareholder returns such as dividends and buybacks.  EQT Corp. is one of the largest independent natural gas producers in the United States, with a focus on the Appalachian Basin, particularly the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. The company’s business model centers on acquiring, developing and producing natural gas and associated liquids from its acreage in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and neighboring states, according to company information published on its website and recent filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, such as the 2025 Form 10-K referenced by SEC filings as of 02/22/2026.The company generates revenue primarily by selling produced natural gas into US markets, including utilities, industrial customers and gas marketers, often under long-term transportation and sales agreements. Because natural gas prices can be volatile, EQT Corp. employs a hedging strategy using derivatives to stabilize cash flows and protect its capital program. This hedging activity can result in gains or losses that significantly influence reported earnings in a given quarter, even when underlying production volumes remain relatively stable, as highlighted in management commentary in recent quarterly presentations made available on the investor relations site in early 2026.EQT Corp.’s cost structure is driven by drilling and completion expenses, gathering and transportation fees, and operating costs such as labor, maintenance and environmental compliance. Over recent years the company has emphasized efficiency improvements and longer laterals to reduce per-unit costs. Management has also focused on balance sheet repair, using free cash flow at times of favorable gas prices to reduce debt and strengthen credit metrics, which is frequently cited as a strategic priority in company presentations and earnings materials accessible via EQT investor materials as of 04/29/2026.  The most important revenue driver for EQT Corp. is the volume of natural gas it produces and sells each quarter. Production levels depend on the pace of drilling and well completions, which in turn reflect the company’s capital expenditure plans and expectations for future gas prices. In its latest quarterly report for the first quarter of 2026, management highlighted production volumes that were broadly in line with prior guidance, while reiterating full-year volume targets, according to the company’s earnings release published in late April 2026 and summarized by Nasdaq data as of 04/30/2026.In addition to dry gas, EQT Corp. produces natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane. These NGLs can provide incremental revenue, especially when petrochemical demand is strong and NGL pricing is favorable relative to dry gas. However, NGL volumes and realizations typically represent a smaller share of total revenue compared to the core natural gas business. The company’s marketing strategy seeks to optimize the mix of pipeline capacity, regional basis exposure and sales into premium markets such as LNG-linked demand on the US Gulf Coast, where possible. Another key driver is the company’s realized price, which reflects benchmark gas prices such as Henry Hub, regional basis differentials in Appalachia, and the impact of hedging. In the first quarter of 2026, EQT Corp. discussed how lower spot prices compared with the prior year weighed on revenue, while hedging gains partially offset the decline, according to comments from the earnings call and related presentation materials published on 04/29/2026. Management noted that the company continues to adjust its hedge book to support its multi-year drilling program and protect its base dividend, with decisions informed by forward curves and internal price expectations. Fee-based and ancillary income, such as firm transportation commitments and gathering arrangements, also play a role in EQT Corp.’s financial profile. While the company has streamlined its midstream exposure compared with earlier years, gathering and transportation remain critical for moving gas from wellheads to end markets. Costs associated with these services can be significant, but securing long-term capacity helps ensure that production is not bottlenecked during periods of strong demand. In recent communications, management has pointed out that infrastructure availability in Appalachia can constrain regional growth, making existing capacity an important competitive asset.

CT Sierra Club Lies About Enbridge Project Beacon Cost, Pollution  - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, MDN told you that Enbridge has launched an open season for customers to sign up for capacity along an expanded Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline in New England (see Enbridge Proposes Major Expansion of Algonquin Pipe: Project Beacon). While details about Project Beacon are still vague, the company has indicated it would replace sections of the pipeline with larger-diameter pipes in some places and run secondary pipelines (called looping) alongside existing pipes in others. Project Beacon also involves expanding some compressor stations along the route, and could include new gas storage facilities. A day after the project was officially announced, the Connecticut chapter of the radical Sierra Club launched a campaign to lie about and smear the project.

Constellation Seeks to Keep Boston LNG Terminal Online Long-Term -- Marcellus Drilling News -  -A study commissioned by Constellation Energy concludes that the Everett Marine Terminal (EMT) in Massachusetts (LNG import terminal) remains critical to New England’s gas and electric reliability, particularly during peak winter demand. Constellation owns EMT. The report (full copy below) highlights EMT’s role during Winter Storm Fern in early 2025, when it prevented supply shortages and price spikes. Existing contracts with Massachusetts utilities run through 2030, costing ratepayers an estimated $946 million. The report says replacing EMT via pipeline expansion could cost $4.6–$6.1 billion. While consumer and environmental advocates favor demand-side alternatives such as electrification and efficiency, the report is skeptical, calling these strategies high-risk and unverified.

4th Circuit Panel Rejects Antis’ Plea to Block Transco SESE Work  - Marcellus Drilling News - One week ago, MDN told you that a three-judge panel from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (4th Circuit) heard oral arguments from Big Green asking the court to block construction of Williams’ Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE) while a court case challenging permits issued for the project grinds slowly through the legal system (see 4th Circuit Judge Tells Antis to Post a $100M Bond to Block Pipe). This past Monday, the judges politely (in legalese) told Big Green to kiss off.

Infrastructure Week: The Real Story Is Underground | RealClearEnergy -During Infrastructure Week, policymakers and industry leaders will highlight the systems that keep America moving. Roads, bridges, ports, and airports rightly receive attention. But one of the most important infrastructure stories this year is happening underground. Natural gas pipelines are in focus because America's energy needs are growing, quickly.Electricity needs are climbing, in part because artificial intelligence and data centers require enormous amounts of reliable power. At the same time, liquefied natural gas exports continue to expand, allowing the U.S. to supply allies and trading partners abroad while strengthening domestic production. In its 2026 Annual Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects strong long-term growth in natural gas demand from both the power sector and export markets. Natural gas is the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S. at approximately 41%, providing reliable and affordable power to homes, businesses, manufacturers, hospitals, and schools. As demand for natural gas continues to grow, infrastructure capacity must grow with it so that low-cost, reliable energy can reach the consumers and businesses that depend on it. The Appalachian Basin, home to the Marcellus and Utica shales, is expected to play a central role in meeting future demand. Production in the East region remains among the lowest-cost in the nation. But abundant supply alone is not enough. Natural gas must be transported to where it is needed, including manufacturing centers, power plants, and export terminals along the Gulf Coast.  Pipelines are the essential link between America's energy resources and the consumers who depend on them. They deliver affordable energy to homes, fuel industrial growth, support grid reliability, and enable exports that enhance national security. Without pipelines, natural gas cannot get from the wellhead to power plants, factories, or family homes. Without adequate pipeline capacity, supply bottlenecks emerge, prices become more volatile, and economic opportunities are lost. The infrastructure required to meet that demand is significant. The INGAA Foundation’s recent North American Midstream Infrastructure Report projects that more than $1 trillion in new midstream investment will be required through 2052. That includes roughly 37,000 miles of additional natural gas transmission pipelines and more than 100,000 miles of gathering systems needed to connect production to processing facilities and major transmission networks.According to Fortune, natural gas pipeline construction in the U.S. is experiencing its largest growth surge in nearly two decades, since the beginning of the shale revolution. More than 150 pipeline projects are planned nationwide, representing roughly 150 billion cubic feet of new capacity, according to analytics firm Arbo. Wood Mackenzie estimates that companies have committed $50 billion to new pipeline investments that would add approximately 8,800 miles of infrastructure across the country.This builds on the approximately 6.3 billion cubic feet per day of new capacity added to the grid in 2025, with most of that infrastructure directed toward the South-Central region and the rapidly growing LNG corridor along the Gulf Coast. Last year’s buildout, coupled with progress being made today are meaningful, much more infrastructure will be needed in the years ahead to keep pace with rising demandThis Infrastructure Week, policymakers should recognize that pipelines are every bit as vital as highways and bridges. They may run underground and out of sight, but they help power factories, data centers, export terminals, and homes across the country.

US ethylene exports remain elevated as Middle East war tightens European supply | S&P Global -A significant uptick in European demand since the war in the Middle East broke out has kept US ethylene exports elevated, according to the latest full-month S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.US ethylene exports have been going steadily to Europe since 2025, but shipments jumped significantly after the start of the Middle East conflict.. Total US ethylene exports rose from 60,000 metric tons in February to 155,000 mt in March, with most of the volume going to Europe, according to CAS data. The main recipients were Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal. During this time, the US' share of global ethylene exports also increased from42% to 89.8%. These levels remained elevated throughout April, totaling 124,000 mt out of the US. This surge in volume came as cracker outages in Europe kept ethylene supply tight, driving spot prices higher and boosting demand for imports. In the US, this was reflected in higher terminal fees for spot cargoes, reaching 20-25 cents/pound in mid-April, up from a previously fixed 4-6 cents/lb. "Europe couldn't really take the risk for late delivery, so that is why the 20-cent/lb cargo got done," an olefins trader said. While the fees on spot cargo exports have since come down from their peaks, they remained elevated at about 12 cents/pound, according to the latest market feedback, widening the spread between domestic and export ethylene prices while still maintaining an open arbitrage to Europe. Enterprise Products said during its first-quarter earnings call that its ethylene exports had been "really high," with co-CEO James Teage citing 3 million barrels. The company, in a joint venture with Navigator Holding, owns the biggest ethylene export terminal in the US, with a recently expanded capacity of 1.55 million mt/year. Additionally, Tyler Cott, senior vice president of hydrocarbon marketing, said spot loading rates on the US Gulf Coast had risen following the surge in demand, reaching as high as 55 cents for various products, including ethylene, propylene, LPG and ethane. "Yes. We've seen elevated spot rates. They've been volatile," Cott said. "They've been as high as kind of what you mentioned, and they're off from those highs now. Our system has more flexibility than it did previously. And so we'll respond to what products the markets need and have the highest value with the spot capacity that we have available." Domestically, ethylene's margins to upstream and downstream markets have widened since the beginning of the war, with significant price increases in the polyethylene export market and ethane's prices remaining low despite the uptick in export demand. "There is a lot of good reason for [the] market to become tighter [higher exports and summer season demand for natural gas and ethane], but there is a lot of room for buffer for spread ethane," a second olefins trader said. These wide margins have created a disconnect in immediate market dynamics throughout the chain, with ethylene market participants saying prices have been balancing mainly to European arbitrage conditions. However, following announcements that crackers are coming back online in Europe earlier than anticipated, demand for US imports might be impacted. "We are already seeing less interest in US ethylene into Europe," a shipbroker said. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed spot ethylene at 30.50 cents/lb Mont Belvieu pipeline and at 42.50 cents/lb FOB USGC on May 21, both down 0.50 cent day over day. Market participants remained in a wait-and-see mode, with their attention fixed on the possibility of a US-Iran agreement. However, confidence remained that market conditions would remain balanced.

U.S. Propane Inventories Remain Elevated Despite Smaller-Than-Expected Build | RBN Energy  -The EIA reported a propane/propylene inventory build of 421 Mbbl for the week ended May 15, coming in well below both industry expectations for a 1.8-MMbbl build and the average build for the week of 1.7 MMbbl. Total U.S. propane/propylene inventories now stand at 81.6 MMbbl, which is 28.5 MMbbl, or 54%, above the same week in 2025, 14.9 MMbbl, or 22%, above the five-year maximum, and 26.6 MMbbl, or 48%, above the five-year average. Despite historically elevated inventory levels, the smaller-than-expected weekly inventory increase may suggest storage growth is beginning to moderate.Weekly U.S. propane exports reported by the EIA declined by about 170 Mb/d to 2 MMb/d, falling below the four-week average of 2.1 MMb/d but remaining above the 1.7 MMb/d reported during the same week last year and the year-to-date average of 1.95 MMb/d. At the same time, total U.S. propane/propylene production remained near 3 MMb/d, just below the record-high levels reached in April. The recent decline in propane exports may partly reflect stronger butane export activity, while the combination of softer propane exports and still-elevated production levels continues to support ample domestic propane supply availability.

Mont Belvieu Propane Price Soars over Conway | RBN Energy - The Iran war has significantly increased the value of Gulf Coast propane relative to inland markets. Concerns over disruption to Middle East LPG flows through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed international buyers toward U.S. cargoes, strengthening Gulf Coast export demand and lifting Mont Belvieu propane prices relative to the key midcontinent hub in Conway, KS. Higher freight costs and strong export terminal utilization also have contributed to the move.  Since 2019, Mont Belvieu propane has averaged about 2.75 c/gal above Conway with winter heating demand occasionally narrowing or briefly reversing the spread. As shown in the graph below, the recent move from roughly 2.2 c/gal in May-December 2025 to nearly 9 c/gal last week reflects the unusually strong export pull on Gulf Coast barrels.

Northeast Natural Gas Revival Seen Cutting Gulf Coast Supply Short  -Appalachian natural gas supplies will be “desperately needed” on the Gulf Coast in the coming years, but growing demand in the Northeast and other hurdles could prevent much of those volumes from moving further south, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH).NGI Appalachia forward basis curves chart showing regional natural gas pricing trends through June 2028. At a Glance:
5 Bcf/d Gulf Coast deficit projected
Appalachian production to continue growing
Planned Northeast pipelines oversubscribed

Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Expand Energy Bets Big on LNG-Related Gas Demand | RBN Energy -Expand Energy’s Q1 2026 earnings call made one thing clear: the company is positioning itself for a long-term structural growth cycle in U.S. natural gas demand, with LNG exports sitting at the center of the strategy. Management repeatedly emphasized that Expand’s Haynesville position is uniquely advantaged because it sits directly on the Gulf Coast LNG corridor. Expand sees LNG as a long-term extension of its upstream business and intends to move further down the value chain through marketing, transportation and potentially gas supply management services tied to export facilities.   A major focus of the call was Expand’s new LNG agreement with Delfin FLNG, which management described as a foundational piece of its broader LNG strategy. The company signed a new SPA tied to Delfin’s first floating LNG vessel for 1.15 million tons per year (0.15 Bcf/d of natural gas throughput) after terminating a prior arrangement connected to Delfin’s second vessel. Management said the new deal is larger, expected to reach market sooner and carry better economics than the previous agreement. Beyond simply supplying gas, Expand is negotiating to become Delfin’s gas supply manager, which would allow the company to help manage upstream supply and transportation into the LNG facility. Executives framed the arrangement as part of a broader effort to build an integrated LNG portfolio that gives Expand exposure not only to Gulf Coast demand growth, but also to international LNG pricing through markets like JKM and TTF. The company also indicated it plans to continue pursuing additional LNG opportunities over time using a portfolio approach that blends long-term contracts, shorter-term sales and downstream commercial partnerships.

Caturus Takes FID on Commonwealth LNG --Commonwealth LNG has reached a final investment decision (FID) on its 9.5 MMtpa export terminal (1.3 Bcf/d) near Cameron Parish, Louisiana.Caturus (formerly Kimmeridge Energy) is targeting operations for 2030 (see picture below). The project has obtained all required regulatory approvals. In April, EQT and Glencore each agreed to take an additional 1 MMtpa (0.13 Bcf/d) from the project after JERA exited its long-term contract. The terminal now has 8 MMtpa (1.05 Bcf/d) of capacity secured under binding agreements.As we discuss in the LNG Voyager Weekly Report, this marks the second LNG project to reach FID this year, following Venture Global’s FID on CP2 Phase 2 in March. With Commonwealth moving forward, U.S. export capacity is expected to exceed 32 Bcf/d by the early 2030s. In 2025, six new LNG projects got the greenlight and the pace of FIDs surged. One U.S. project, Texas LNG, appears likely to advance in the near term. In the long term, several projects remain, including developments from industry heavyweights Cheniere and Venture Global. Many are still awaiting regulatory approvals but could come under consideration once permits are granted, likely next year.

Woodside Assessing Steel Options Amid Middle East Supply Risks - Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project remains on track to ship its first cargo by 2029 as work at the 790-acre site on the west bank of the Calcasieu River continues. At a Glance:

• Progress continues on first three trains
• FERC reports no issues with schedule
• Bechtel sourcing steel from UAE

Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Venture Global Plans Expanded LNG Exports | RBN Energy - During its quarterly earnings call last week, Venture Global gave an update on the timeline of its pending and existing LNG facilities. The company plans to grow to 85 mtpa of LNG capacity by the end of 2029. As shown in the graph below from their report, this would make them the largest LNG exporter in the U.S. and the second-largest in the world. This plan includes two bolt-on expansions (the light-blue area of the VG bar in the chart) to be developed after CP2 Phases 1 and 2 are operational. There are bolt-on expansions at the CP2 site and at the Plaquemines site, each targeting FID in 2027. The former would have a 10 mtpa capacity (1.3 Bcf/d in feedgas) and the latter has 6.4 mtpa capacity (0.8 Bcf/d feedgas). Venture Global is targeting first production from these bolt-ons in late 2028 (at CP2) and 2029 (at Plaquemines). In news from a project currently under construction, Venture Global expects to reach first LNG at CP2 in the second half of 2027. CEO Mike Sabel confirmed that the facility will rely heavily on the Permian Basin for its supply. CP2 will have a “very large nitrogen unit, among the biggest in the country” in order to mitigate the problem of excessive nitrogen in the LNG feed (which we blogged about in It’s a Gas Gas Gas). Sabel described “transportation agreements that physically connect us directly with Waha” at Katy, where they can then route gas via Blackfin to the CP Express pipeline which leads to CP2. This will link Venture Global’s LNG supply to what is currently by far the cheapest domestic gas production basin.

Sempra Seeks DOE Approval for Port Arthur LNG Cooldown Cargoes - Sempra has asked the US Department of Energy for permission to import and re-export LNG cooldown cargos at its Port Arthur LNG project as the timeline for startup of the first train at the Texas facility firms.  At a Glance:

• Commissioning activity could begin in fall
• Port Arthur adds late-decade demand
• Gulf Coast gas flows keep rising

Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 Expansion Nearly Complete -- Train 6 at the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project in South Texas is producing LNG and expected to conclude commissioning and enter commercial service this summer, Cheniere Energy confirmed this week.The seventh and final train at the expansion is also on track to be done this fall. Once finished, the 10 Mt/y project would boost the facility’s output to 25 Mt/y.

Feedgas Flows to U.S. LNG Export Plants Hit 16-Week Low on Tues. -- Marcellus Drilling News - U.S. natural gas flows to LNG export facilities were set to hit a 16-week low of 15.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, May 19, despite the anticipated return of QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass plant in Texas, according to LSEG data. Average flows dropped from a record 18.8 Bcf/d in April to 16.9 Bcf/d in May due to spring maintenance at multiple facilities, including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG.

Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver Another 90 Days, Includes LNG -- Marcellus Drilling News - On March 18, President Trump issued a 60-day waiver pausing the enforcement of the Jones Act (see President Trump Issues 60-Day Waiver of Jones Act, Includes LNG). For *years* we have railed against the 106-year-old Jones Act and its requirement that any goods (like LNG) that are transported from one U.S. port to another be on a ship manufactured in the U.S., owned by a U.S. company, and crewed by a U.S. crew. The effect of this law in the modern age is to ban LNG (and other shipments, like gasoline, propane, coal, and other products manufactured in the U.S.) from being shipped cheaply from port to port. Suspension made it possible to ship LNG from one U.S. port to another. However, the waiver expired at 12 am ET on May 18. But, good news! President Trump extended the waiver for another 90 days.

FERC proposes faster permitting for gas pipeline projects - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Thursday proposed a revamp of a decades-old blanket certificate program for natural gas projects — framing it as beneficial for building more pipeline infrastructure amid rising energy demand. FERC’s blanket certificate program — which provides a path for natural gas companies to carry out certain routine activities without the need to get a case-specific permit — was last majorly updated 20 years ago and includes cost limits that FERC leaders say haven’t kept up with the pace of inflation. “I’m very proud of the step that FERC took today on the gas pipeline blanket proceeding towards clearing the way to expansion that is critical to meeting our country’s explosive energy needs,” said Republican FERC Chair Laura Swett, speaking to reporters at FERC’s meeting. “Our proposal is grounded in thousands of hours of experience and thousands of cases and an eye to providing what we believe is a legally defensible approach in court grounded in the record while providing the industry the confidence it needs to invest in infrastructure,” she said.

Freeport LNG Feedgas Noms Rebound After Gulf South Maintenance Drop - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers.  North American LNG export capacity is poised for significant growth through 2028 as new liquefaction projects ramp up, reinforcing the region’s role as a key supplier to global natural gas markets.

• 0.87 Bcf/d: Freeport LNG feedgas nominations have partially recovered after slipping sharply Tuesday due to maintenance on the Gulf South Pipeline. Scheduled volumes to Freeport rose to around 0.87 Bcf/d in Tuesday night nominations, up from roughly 0.47 Bcf/d during the drop. The decline coincided with a notice for maintenance at the Wilson Compressor Station, which temporarily constrained capacity on the Coastal Bend delivery corridor serving the export facility. The partial recovery suggests the impact was short-lived and tied to the maintenance window, though flows are still at roughly 50% of capacity, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data.
• 9.3 Mt/y: Australian union workers at Inpex-operated Ichthys LNG are planning work stoppages of several hours a day starting May 27 for two weeks. Australian Workers’ Union leaders reported contract talks ended last week without a reasonable agreement. A strike at the 9.3 Mt/y capacity facility could further tighten global LNG markets already strained by Middle East conflict, with Ichthys accounting for about 2% of global production. The majority of those annual volumes head to Japan, which is facing rising temperatures over the next several weeks.
• $34.8 billion: In other Australian news, Inpex is doubling down on its Australian LNG position as PetroChina exits Woodside Energy’s Browse LNG project. The Japanese company agreed to purchase PetroChina’s 10.67% stake in the development in an agreement estimated at $34.8 billion. Browse LNG is a proposed development of several Western Australia offshore fields intended to feed LNG production through the North West Shelf facility. The project could tap reserves estimated to hold about 13.9 Tcf of dry gas and 390 million bbls of condensate, supporting potential output of around 11.4 Mt/y of LNG, LPG and domestic gas.
• 2.12 Mt: US LNG exports are set for a 0.26 Mt week/week dip after scheduled maintenance and operational issues cut into feedgas nominations for almost two weeks, according to Kpler data. Estimated loadings are expected to reach 2.12 Mt the week of May 18, down from 2.38 Mt the week prior. Weekly US exports this spring peaked at 2.71 Mt the week of April 20 and have since plateaued. Nominations to Golden Pass, Sabine Pass and Freeport LNG have returned to near optimal levels, indicating maintenance events are wrapping up, but overall Lower 48 feedgas flows are well below April levels, according to NGI's US LNG Export Flow Tracker.

Will LNG Exporters Dodge Hurricane Season Again This Year? -- National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters are calling for a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year, which would be welcome news for Gulf Coast LNG exporters and offshore producers. “NOAA outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season projects 8-14 named storms, including up to six hurricanes and three major hurricanes." At a Glance:

• Storms seen veering out to sea
• LNG growth amplifies market impacts
• Late-season storms could track toward Gulf

El Niño Threat Raises Stakes for Global Natural Gas Markets --Appalachian natural gas supplies will be “desperately needed” on the Gulf Coast in the coming years, but growing demand in the Northeast and other hurdles could prevent much of those volumes from moving further south, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH). NGI Appalachia forward basis curves chart showing regional natural gas pricing trends through June 2028.  At a Glance:
5 Bcf/d Gulf Coast deficit projected
Appalachian production to continue growing
Planned Northeast pipelines oversubscribed

Panama Canal Outlook Eases Near-Term Risk for US LNG Shipments to Asia --The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) reported it does not expect restrictions on the critical waterway this year, offering a measure of relief as the call for US LNG from Asian buyers raises traffic through the canal. Map of the Panama Canal lock system showing Gatun, Pedro Miguel, Miraflores locks, key shipping routes between Atlantic, Pacific.  At a Glance:
US LNG traffic to Asia rises
Freight rates begin firming again
Canal flows rebound from drought lows

Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Targa Infrastructure Update | RBN Energy - During its Q1 2026 earnings call, Targa reported increased gathering and processing volumes despite poor Waha gas pricing. President Jen Kneale noted that Permian volumes were more than 250 MMcf/d above the Q1 average, even with 200-400 MMcf/d of Permian gas temporarily shut in by producers on any given day. In the Q&A, CEO Matthew Meloy said the setup points to a stronger volume picture once more gas takeaway is available: “We have even had some tell us that they're pushing and delaying some of their completions and activity into the back half of this year. And so, even with some of that happening, us being on track for our volumes in the first part of the year with these shut-ins, paints a really good picture for us as that activity ramps when there's sufficient egress on the gas side.”Their list of gas processing plant projects shows how Targa is building around Permian growth. In the Midland Basin, East Pembrook entered service at the end of Q1 earlier than expected, while East Driver remains on track for Q3 2026. In the Delaware Basin, Falcon II came online in Q1 while Copperhead, Yeti I and Yeti II remain on schedule; all plants have an inlet capacity of 275 MMcf/d. Targa announced two new plants, Roadrunner III (265 MMcf/d) and Copperhead II (275 MMcf/d) that are expected to start up in Q1 2028 to further support growth in the Delaware.Other midstream projects the company provided an update on include the Delaware Express NGL pipeline, a 30" intra-basin system moving Delaware Basin liquids toward Targa’s Grand Prix pipeline is currently ramping up while Speedway, the 500 Mb/d NGL pipeline from the Permian to Mont Belvieu is expected to ramp up in Q3 2027. Fractionator Train 11 at Mont Belvieu began operations early in Q2, Train 12 is expected to enter service in Q1 2027, and Train 13 for Q1 2028, all with a fractionation capacity of 150 Mb/d. Other projects are tabulated below.Downstream at Galena Park, Targa averaged 13.1 MMbbl per month (MMb/m) or ~430 Mb/d of LPG loadings in Q1 despite the outage of a low-ethane propane unit, that was "quickly resolved". Galena Park's LPG export expansion is expected online in Q3 2027, raising capacity to more than 19 MMb/m (~625 Mb/d). In Q&A, President of Logistics and Transportation Ben Branstetter said that global demand is creating more butane opportunities and that Targa has “more inbounds than I've certainly ever seen, from others around the world thinking about getting into the U.S. LPG market”, from customers seeking U.S. LPG under multiyear contracts.

Could Permian’s High Nitrogen Natural Gas Pose Hurdle for Gulf Coast LNG Exporters? - Giant US export facilities on the Gulf Coast are betting on cheap, bountiful natural gas from the Permian Basin to meet surging global demand, but nitrogen content poses an operational challenge. Chart shows global LNG capacity under development led by US projects between 2025-2030, with growth also from Qatar, Canada and Australia. At a Glance:
Nitrogen cuts liquefaction efficiency
Waha prices stay deeply negative
CP2 adds major removal units

US gas futures hit seven-week high as heat drives demand and output slips (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a seven-week high on Monday on forecasts for warmer-than-expected weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks, as well as lower output in recent weeks. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $3.024 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 27 for a second day in a row. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slipped to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 2. Temperatures in Washington D.C. will reach record-breaking levels of 99 degrees Fahrenheit (37.2 degrees Celsius) on Monday, 101 F on Tuesday and 97 F on Wednesday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. That compares with an all-time high of 96 F hit on May 18, 1877, May 19, 1997, and on May 20, 1996. The normal high in the nation's capital around this time of year is 77 F. To escape the heat, homes and businesses in the PJM power grid, which includes Washington, cranked up their air conditioners, boosting spot prices for Monday by 249% to $145 per megawatt-hour, the highest since February. PJM manages the electric grid in all or part of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.1 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. In other LNG news, there are now three vessels expected to reach China in June directly from the U.S. No LNG vessel has sailed straight from the U.S. to China since February 2025, according to LSEG data, due primarily to trade disruptions between the world's two economic superpowers during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term.

US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday as stronger demand forecasts and lower output supported prices despite a larger-than-expected storage build and reduced LNG flows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 101 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended May 15. That was bigger than the 95-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 119 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 92 bcf for the period. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange edged up 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.018 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Looking forward, the premium of futures for July over June fell to a 13-month low near 14 cents per mmBtu. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Meteorologists forecast weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 5, prompting power companies to burn more gas than usual as some homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.0 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.

Gulf Coast Crude Exports Soar to Record 5.9 Million Barrels Per Day | RBN Energy - According to vessel tracking data, U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports skyrocketed to a record-breaking 5.9 MMb/d for the week ended May 15 (far right in chart below), underscoring the Gulf’s growing role as the world’s balancing barrel supplier amid heightened geopolitical risk and resilient international demand. As discussed in this week's Crude Voyager, this milestone was driven primarily by exceptional European buying, with exports to Europe alone climbing to an unprecedented 3.3 MMb/d and Dutch imports reaching a historic 1.6 MMb/d. The scale of flows highlights how Atlantic Basin refiners are increasingly leaning on U.S. crude as Middle East supply uncertainty intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz. The record export performance is particularly notable because it is occurring despite relatively flat domestic production growth. Instead, the market is relying heavily on commercial inventory draws and Strategic Petroleum Reserve barrels to sustain elevated outbound volumes. That dynamic suggests the current export pace may be difficult to maintain over the longer term without stronger upstream supply growth or a normalization in global crude trade flows.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Records Largest Draw in History | RBN Energy -The EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) released this morning highlights the growing strain the Iran conflict is placing on global oil balances. For the week ended May 15, inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) – the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil - posted a nearly 10 MMbbl draw (far right in chart below), dropping stocks to 374 MMbbl. As discussed in this week's Crude Oil Billboard, this is the largest weekly decline on record and surpasses last week’s then-record 8.6 MMbbl draw, as Washington continues releasing emergency barrels to offset supply disruptions tied to the war and instability around the Strait of Hormuz. This draw is part of the larger coordinated 400 MMbbl release with the IEA and participating member countries as a way to address supply disruptions and price hikes connected to the War in Iran.

Motor oil shortage may lead to increased costs for American drivers --Many drivers get oil changes before Memorial Day weekend road trips to avoid mishaps on the road like engine overheating. Those oil changes could become more expensive due to costs related to the Iran war. Some major automotive brands are prepping their dealers for a motor oil shortage, according to reporting from automotive news site The Drive. A shortage would increase wholesale prices, forcing auto parts and repair shops to increase sales prices and labor fees to protect their profit margins. Motor oil used in internal combustion engine, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars is primarily made of base oils and chemical additives that coat moving engine components to provide lubrication and protection. The United States imports a large percentage of the base oils used in motor oil from plants and refineries in the Middle East. Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz along with port blockades have resulted in massive shipping delays for crude oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration calls the Strait of Hormuz the "world's most important oil transit chokepoint" and war-related disruptions are having a global impact on oil supply and pricing.Gas prices have increased dramatically in the weeks following the start of the war in Iran on Feb. 28. Now, American drivers may see motor oil prices (and oil change prices) increase drastically as well. Dealers and car service centers who were warned of a potential motor oil shortage by automakers and suppliers could increase prices soon to protect profit margins.Which cars will be most impacted by a potential motor oil shortage?A potential motor oil shortage mostly impacts "low-viscosity synthetic oils like 0W-8 and 0W-16, which are commonly used in newer hybrid and fuel-efficient engines," says Yahoo Autos. Drivers that own hybrid cars could experience the impact of a motor oil shortage first because of the lightweight oils their vehicles require. Today, several of the best-selling vehicles on the road are standard hybrid models, like the Toyota Camry.According to Yahoo Autos, automotive companies like Toyota and Nissan are acknowledging the potential for a motor oil shortage and are advising dealers to "occasionally substitute heavier oil grades for certain service intervals" as a short-term solution to avoid quickly diminishing the supply of some low-viscosity synthetic motor oil grades.Gas expert Patrick De Haan shared an internal AutoZone email referencing challenges with the supply of certain motor oils that would lead to price adjustments. AutoZone operates over 6,800 locations across the U.S. and is the largest aftermarket automotive parts and accessories retailer in the country.De Haan also posted a Nissan message to its dealer partners, which stated "a supplier-driven price adjustment is expected in the near term" regarding motor oil. Prices for motor oil and oil changes will rise as the supply of base oils begins to run dry.

FERC Oil & Liquids Pipeline Index Rates Stabilize After Inflation Spike | RBN Energy --Starting July 1, oil and liquids pipelines regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and charging “index” rates will be permitted to increase their rates by just over 1.4% (red circle in chart below). Index rates remain the most popular form of ratemaking for interstate oil and liquids pipelines. This year, FERC’s index rate formula, Producer Price Index for Finished Goods (PPI-FG) minus 0.55%, resulted in a positive 0.01429. As a result, liquids pipelines must multiply their July 1, 2025, through June 30, 2026, index ceiling levels by 1.014290 to calculate their index ceiling levels effective July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027. While recent annual increases have been moderated, they come on the heels of two historically large inflation-driven adjustments. FERC issued an order reinstating index levels in September 2024, and the July index rate  — which exceeded 14% — marked the largest increase since FERC adopted its current methodology in 1992. That followed a nearly 10% increase the year before. The PPI-FG is tied to inflation trends, and FERC reviews the index level every five years to ensure it reflects changes in industry costs. The result is a framework that is backwards-looking because it relies on historical costs but updated annually to reflect inflationary changes. For more on the methodology, see You Really Got Me.

Devon Energy Enhances Permian Inventory in Federal Lease Sale - — Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE: DVN) announced the successful acquisition of 16,300 net undeveloped acres in the core of the Delaware Basin in Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico, for approximately $2.6 billion, or approximately $161,500 per net acre, through the Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) Oil and Gas Lease Sale. This acquisition bolsters the premier Delaware Basin positions in the industry, extends inventory life, and is accretive to net asset value per share. HIGHLIGHTS:

• Acquisition adds approximately 400 net locations normalized to 2-mile laterals, with expected strong well economics and low breakevens supported by:
  • High Net Revenue Interest: Federal leases carry an 87.5% net revenue interest (“NRI”), with 10-year terms across all depths, more favorable than NRIs typical of state and fee leases in the region.
  • Contiguous Acreage Position: Provides the ability to drill longer laterals and lower costs through co-development and multi-well pad development.
  • Top-Tier Productivity: Highly productive wells across multiple zones expected to compete for near-term capital.
  • Leveraging Competitive Cost Structure: Acreage is directly adjacent to Devon’s existing Delaware Basin position, providing the ability to leverage existing facilities and infrastructure. Devon’s top-tier drilling and completion cost performance across its Delaware Basin operations provides a significant underwriting advantage in developing these assets.
• Transaction value of $2.6 billion ($161,500 per net acre or $6.5 million per location) is expected to be funded with cash on hand while maintaining our strong credit profile. Devon remains fully committed to a disciplined cash-return framework, including its recently announced $8 billion share repurchase program.

“This BLM lease sale presented a rare and compelling opportunity to add high-quality, contiguous federal acreage at scale in the core of the Delaware Basin,” said Clay Gaspar, Devon’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Each tract was evaluated on rock quality, midstream connectivity, strategic fit and per-share value accretion for our owners. The favorable federal lease terms, including the lower royalty burden, multi-pay potential and the ability to develop with longer laterals on multi-well pads, are immediately accretive to our top-tier inventory. This acquisition is consistent with our successful ground game track record and strengthens our leading Delaware Basin position.” “The success we achieved in this auction is a testament to the alignment of our Board and the effectiveness of our team, even as we continue to accelerate through the integration of a major merger completed just two weeks ago. Our combined understanding of the basin following the Coterra merger only reinforced our conviction in the quality and depth of this inventory and our confidence in moving decisively to capture these accretive high-quality opportunities.”

Summertime ... and the Blendin’ Is Easy – Fuel Waiver May Lower Costs, Boost Gasoline Supplies | RBN Energy - By mid-May, the U.S. would typically be a couple of weeks into “summer refining season,” a monthslong period when refineries and refined product terminals are required to supply gasoline with lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP) — and a lot less butane. However, an emergency fuel waiver by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is allowing them to market gasoline with an RVP of up to 10 pounds per square inch (psi) for E10 and E15 gasoline. In addition, the waiver streamlines compliance, making it easier for midstream operators to blend butane up to the RVP limit. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the waiver — temporary but likely to be extended — may well increase summertime gasoline supply and improve refinery and complicated blender economics. As we said a couple of years ago in Wasting Away in Butane Blendingville, gasoline is among the most complex hydrocarbon products out there, with as many as a dozen specs — each with its own characteristics, such as octane, RVP, distillation points, aromatics, olefins, etc. — that when combined need to meet the exacting standards of regulators and, at the same time, turn as big a financial return as possible. And, to keep things interesting, federal and state regulations ratchet down the allowable RVP levels each spring and ratchet them up in late summer (often to different levels in different markets, and even at different dates). Because of varying summer temperatures across the country and because certain parts of the U.S. face more serious challenges regarding smog than others, the EPA over the years has designated areas where even stricter summertime limits are enforced. Some states, like California, New York and Illinois — established even lower RVP caps of their own (with the EPA’s blessing) to address specific pollution concerns.Generally speaking, U.S. refineries and refined product terminals have needed to meet the warmer-weather RVP requirements from May 1 to September 15, and retailers had to do the same from June 1 to September 15. That one-month delay in the enforcement startup date for retailers is designed to give them time to eliminate their remaining supplies of higher-RVP, cooler-weather gasoline. Typically, refineries start making “summer gasoline” in the second half of March and switch back to “winter gasoline” in the first half of September.With gasoline prices up by more than 50% since the start of the Iran war on February 28, the Trump administration in March and April took several steps to ease the regulatory burden on refineries and gasoline blenders with the dual aims of increasing gasoline supply and holding down gasoline prices. First, on March 24, the EPA extended for 20 days (starting May 1) the right to market E15 gasoline — that is, gasoline with 15% ethanol — repeating a loosening-up it initially approved on a similar emergency basis a few summers back. (Prior to 2022, E15 sales had been limited to non-summer months because of its high RVP and the lack of a statutory 1-psi RVP waiver for E15; see Growing Sideways.) The EPA also waived (again for an initial period of 20 days starting May 1) a long-standing federal requirement that refineries and refined product terminals ratchet down the RVP level in E15 gasoline to 9 psi, thereby permitting an RVP level of up to 10 psi in E15 during the summer months.Moreover, the waiver has streamlined and simplified summer compliance processes, making summertime butane blending by midstream players realistic. Under the standard rules, pipelines, barges, storage facilities and terminals are not allowed to blend in butane in the summer even if there is room on the RVP side without adhering to onerous sampling and testing requirements. The waiver allows for the simpler winter compliance processes for butane blending to continue during the summer months.Further, the EPA said it would suspend federal enforcement of all state “boutique” requirements for summertime RVP levels of less than 9 psi, noting that states with stricter RVP limits could continue to enforce them if they wished. The agency added that federal law limits the duration of emergency waivers to 20 days but said, “It is EPA’s intention to issue new waivers effectively extending these waivers until such time as the extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances described in this action are no longer present.” Then, on April 13, the EPA clarified its earlier actions by specifically allowing more butane to be blended into reformulated gasoline before oxygenated blend (RBOB) just as it was already allowed (via the March 24 order) for conventional gasoline before oxygenated blend (CBOB). The agency also said that gasoline distributors could redesignate CBOB as RBOB “so that there is fuel fungibility between conventional gasoline and RFG.” In other words, the EPA established — in theory, at least — a single, national gasoline pool with the same 10-psi RVP standard for summertime gasoline. Oh, and the agency extended its emergency waiver for another 20 days, the first of several likely renewals.Before we go further, we should provide a few more reminders about gasoline production and distribution and the role of butane:

• The CBOB or RBOB that refineries produce includes a carefully concocted blend of many ingredients, the largest by volume typically being (in descending order) fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) gasoline, straight-run gasoline (directly from crude distillation), reformate (a high-octane blendstock), and alkylate (a low-RVP octane booster), plus limited volumes of butane (1%-2%).
• Refineries’ end product is a “sub-octane” gasoline (either CBOB or RBOB) that is blended downstream with high-octane ethanol — and sometimes, depending on the circumstances and time of year, with more butane — to meet the final gasoline specifications before it is trucked to retail outlets.
• To refineries and refined product distributors, butane is a highly desirable gasoline component because of its low cost (about $49/bbl at Mont Belvieu earlier this month, compared to about $131/bbl for RIN-adjusted CBOB at the USGC — more on this below) and high octane content (an AKI, or anti-knock index, of about 92, or close to that of premium gasoline). Therefore, their aim is to add as much as they can. However, as we’ve noted, there are limits to how much butane can be blended into gasoline because of butane’s high RVP level (north of 50 psi) — and, of course, the related federal and state regs.

There are three primary ways to blend butane into gasoline between the refinery and the pump: (1) along the pipelines or onto barges that transport gasoline to market, (2) via direct injection into tanks, and/or (3) via rack blending, in which butane is injected into gasoline at the terminal rack where ethanol is also added. (Each approach has its pros and cons — see Wasting Away in Butane Blendingville for more on that.)The new, more lenient limits for RVP in summer gasoline currently in effect are likely having only modest effects on refinery operations. In many cases, refineries are still making gasoline with two or more levels of RVP aimed at the various regulatory markets they sell into — assuming they have the tankage to handle that. And, we should note, refineries are unlikely to make big operational changes, given that the increase in allowable RVP is only for sequential 20-day periods — there's no rock-solid commitment that the higher limit will stay in place through the summer. That doesn’t mean, though, that the EPA’s action isn’t presenting very real — and potentially very lucrative — opportunities for blending a lot more butane into CBOB and RBOB downstream of refineries at pipelines, barges, tanks and terminal racks in areas where the 10-psi rule is in force. And remember that increasing the volume of butane in gasoline by only a couple of percentage points would have a very measurable effect on the volume of gasoline available to U.S. consumers.

DOJ moves fight over California oil pipeline to federal bench - --Following setbacks in state court, the Justice Department is transferring a legal fight over the restart of a California oil pipeline to a federal bench.The Trump administration notified a federal district court in California late last week that it was shifting venues after a judge on the California Superior Court declined to dissolve her injunction blocking the restart of Sable Offshore’s Santa Ynez pipeline system.Sable Offshore, which joined the federal government in its removal notice, is in the process of reviving oil production near the Santa Barbara Channel after a 2015 oil spill that shuttered the Santa Ynez Unit for a decade. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had sought to bypass legal battles over the company’s pipeline by issuing an order requiring its restart under the Defense Production Act. Sable Offshore began operating its pipeline shortly after the secretary’s March order.

Oil industry allies swarm Supreme Court to shield companies from climate suits - Former Trump administration officials, Republican senators, nearly 100 representatives and 27 red states joined forces on behalf of the oil and gas industry Thursday, urging the Supreme Court to block local governments from suing fossil fuel producers for climate change. Allies of energy producers — including several “dark money” groups with conservative backing — along with the American Petroleum Institute and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, filed more than two dozen “friend of the court” briefs on behalf of oil companies. The legal show of force for the industry comes a week after Exxon Mobil and Canada’s Suncor Energy outlined their arguments in Suncor v. Boulder, a blockbuster climate case the Supreme Court will decide next term. Exxon, Suncor and others have asked the justices to overturn a 2025 Colorado Supreme Court ruling allowing a lawsuit filed against the companies by the city and county of Boulder, Colorado, to proceed in state court. The suit is one of dozens from local governments seeking compensation from fossil fuel companies for the costs of dealing with climate change. The companies contend the lawsuits could cost them billions of dollars, if successful.

Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Enbridge's Project Backlog Continues Growing | RBN Energy  -With its Q1 2026 results release and conference call on May 8, Enbridge provided updates on its operations and projects, and added another $1 billion to its secured project backlog, which is now up to $40 billion. There were no changes to timing guidance for previously sanctioned projects, and several newly sanctioned projects were announced.In its liquids pipeline business, Enbridge noted that its Mainline was practically full in Q1, averaging 3.2 MMb/d compared to nameplate capacity of 3.22 MMb/d, and that capacity has been apportioned all year so far. The 120 Mb/d Gray Oak pipeline expansion, and the 2.5 MMBbl Ingleside Energy Center storage expansion, entered service earlier this year.In support of its 250 Mb/d Mainline Optimization Phase 2 project (MLO2), in April Enbridge launched binding open seasons for up to 200 Mb/d of capacity on Flanagan South (FSP), and up to 50 Mb/d of capacity on the Southern Access Extension pipeline (SAX), offering service from Western Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast. These open seasons became public knowledge in April and are expected to conclude on May 29. FSP volumes would move onto Seaway at Cushing, OK, while SAX volumes would move onto the ETCOP pipeline at Patoka, IL. The Q1 press release clarified that these open seasons were “intended to offer incremental Western Canada Sedimentary Basin egress”. In other words, these are capacity expansions.In Enbridge’s Gas Transmission, Distribution, and Storage businesses, an expansion of storage at Tres Palacios was announced that would add about 25 Bcf of storage in the 2028-2030 timeframe. Enbridge also announced it had sanctioned a western extension of its Vector pipeline that will add 400 MMcf/d of capacity into Wisconsin by 2028, coupled with a successful non-binding open season for 300-500 MMcf/d of capacity. At Dawn, Ontario Enbridge is adding 8 Bcf of unregulated gas storage with a 2029 expected in-service date (ISD). The Sunrise expansion project, which will add 300 MMcf/d of capacity on the southern portion of the Westcoast pipeline system in British Columbia, was approved in April, with ISD expected by late 2028. Enbridge also sanctioned the Cone project, a 300 MW onshore wind facility in Texas expected online in 2027.

For the First Time in a Long Time – After a Long, Steady Decline, Alaska Oil Production Is on the Rise | RBN Energy - Last year, Alaska produced only 421 Mb/d of crude oil, barely one-fifth the more than 2 MMb/d that wells there were churning out back in 1988, when North Slope production peaked. It’s been a long, steady decline, but two new projects — one already producing and the other only weeks away from “first oil” — will add a combined 100 Mb/d once both are fully up and running. And Alaska’s biggest new project in years, ConocoPhillips’s massive Willow effort, will contribute another 180 Mb/d by 2030. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ongoing rebound in North Slope production and the prospects for even more growth going forward.As we said five years ago in The End?, it’s been a challenging few decades for producers in the 49th state. Back in the 1970s and ’80s, Alaska was seen as the next big thing for U.S. crude oil production. With the 1977 completion of the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline (TAPS) from Prudhoe Bay in the north to Valdez in the south, Alaska North Slope (ANS) production took off (blue line in Figure 1 below), and just 11 years later the state not only accounted for 25% of total U.S. crude oil output, it also briefly knocked Texas off its perch as the #1 oil-producing state. Alaska crude oil production was all downhill from there, however. By 1995, it had fallen to less than 1.5 MMb/d, and by 2000, it was below 1 MMb/d. The slide didn’t end there. Through the mid-2010s, production was hovering around 500 Mb/d, and so far in the 2020s it’s been averaging less than 450 Mb/d — or just over 3% of total U.S. output. That’s about to change, at least a little. In December 2024, ConocoPhillips, the largest North Slope producer, achieved first oil at its Nuna project (lower-right part of yellow-shaded area in Figure 2 below) within the Kuparuk River Unit (KRU). A representative for the E&P said during a recent conference in Alaska that Nuna is producing about 10 Mb/d, with output expected to double to 20 Mb/d soon. ConocoPhillips is in the early stages of developing the adjoining Coyote project (lower-left of yellow-shaded area), where output is expected to rise to 13 Mb/d. A couple of considerably larger projects are on deck, the first being the 80-Mb/d Pikka development (pink-shaded area) being undertaken by Australia’s Santos Ltd. (with a 51% stake) and Spain’s Repsol (49%); a final investment decision (FID) on the project was reached in August 2022. Santos said in a May 18 update that Pikka had achieved “first oil.” Crude will be flowing to market via the new 22-mile Pikka Sales Oil Pipeline (magenta line) and the existing Kuparuk Extension (tan line), Kuparuk Sales Oil Pipeline (orange line) and TAPS (purple line). First sales revenue is expected to occur approximately two months following first oil. Plateau capacity of 80 Mb/d is expected in mid-2026. The Santos/Repsol team also reported the successful completion of an appraisal well at their nearby Quokka development (aqua-shaded area), which could end up producing as much per day as Pikka in a few years.By far the biggest new development on the horizon is ConocoPhillips’s 180-Mb/d Willow project (blue-shaded area). A five-pad project was originally approved by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in October 2020. However, that approval was vacated by a federal court the following August and a scaled-down, three-pad version was approved in August 2023. ConocoPhillips reached FID on Willow that December and the project, now estimated to cost between $8.5 billion and $9 billion, is expected to start producing crude oil in early 2029. To reach TAPS, oil from Willow will flow through the planned 32-mile Willow Sales Oil Pipeline (dashed blue line) and the existing Alpine Sales Oil Pipeline (teal line), Kuparuk Extension and Kuparuk Sales Oil Pipeline.It’s not just new developments that are breathing new life into Alaska production. Hilcorp, which acquired BP’s Prudhoe Bay production assets and its 49% stake in TAPS for $5.6 billion in July 2020, is implementing Project Taiga with its Prudhoe Bay partners. The project will use polymer flooding — a type of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) Hilcorp has already successfully demonstrated at its Milne Point production area — to boost Prudhoe Bay’s output by an estimated 25 Mb/d in 2028 and another 15 Mb/d in the early 2030s. Those gains will help to offset natural declines in production there.The combination of new projects (Nuna, Pikka and Willow) and legacy-project rejuvenation (Project Taiga) is finally reversing ANS’s downhill slide. According to a crude oil production forecast released by the Alaska Department of Revenue in March, North Slope production is expected to average 459 Mb/d in the state’s 2026 fiscal year (FY 2026), which ends June 30. From there, the department sees production rising to 518 Mb/d in FY 2027 and topping 600 Mb/d by FY 2032 and 650 Mb/d by FY 2034. (Figure 3 below shows estimated ANS output by fiscal year.) There is, of course, ample takeaway capacity on TAPS; the pipeline was designed to transport up to 2 MMb/d.  We should note that the state’s production forecast is based on an average ANS oil price of $75.26/bbl for FY 2026, which combined an average price of $67.34/bbl for July 2025 through February 2026 with a forecast average price of $91.09/bbl for the Iran war-impacted March-through-June period we’re in the middle of right now. The forecast for FY 2027 is an even $75/bbl, which assumes that prices will be higher than $80/bbl at the start of the fiscal year in July and decline through the rest of the 12-month period. After that, the Department of Revenue assumes the average price will hover around $70/bbl from FY 2028 through FY 2032, then rise to $75/bbl by FY 2036.

Alaska LNG Project Advances With New ConocoPhillips Natural Gas Supply Pact - Glenfarne Group said Monday it signed a deal for ConocoPhillips to supply natural gas for its Alaska LNG project, bringing the first phase closer to being sanctioned. At A Glance:

• 30-year supply deal signed
• Enough to support first phase pipeline
• FID still pending

Kitsault Energy Revives BC Export Hub as LNG Reshapes AECO -Developers of the Kitsault Energy project in northwest British Columbia (BC) are shining the spotlight on the former mining area once again as answer to Canada’s strategy of expanding exports and economic ties to Asian allies.NGI chart shows NOVA/AECO C spot, forward natural gas prices in Western Canada rising above $2/MMBtu by winter 2027-2028. At a Glance:

• C$40B plan targets Asian buyers
• Kitsault seeks role in LNG boom
• Pipeline approvals remain key hurdle

Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: TotalEnergies Doubles Down on LNG Projects | RBN Energy - In its Q1 2026 earnings call, TotalEnergies made clear that, unlike some of its European peers, it is not retreating from hydrocarbons. The company reported 12% quarter-over-quarter growth in LNG production, with LNG sales reaching 12.4 million tons, reinforcing LNG as one of its primary long-term growth pillars and a central focus of future expansion. CEO Patrick Pouyanné stressed that recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and mounting risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have fundamentally altered global LNG market dynamics, increasing the strategic importance of supply flexibility, shipping access, and portfolio diversification. TotalEnergies noted that roughly 20% of global LNG volumes transit through Hormuz, and that rerouting Qatari cargoes around Africa could add approximately 15 days to voyage times, tightening vessel availability and supporting higher global gas prices. Against this backdrop, the company highlighted its increasingly diversified global LNG portfolio as a key competitive advantage.During the call, executives referred to Mozambique as the “Qatar of Africa” and outlined ongoing remobilization efforts, including financing, workforce returns, and procurement activity. A major milestone was achieved during the quarter with a full restart of construction on the Mozambique LNG project in January. Construction on the Mozambique LNG project was previously suspended following insurgent attacks in 2021. With a planned capacity of 13 mtpa (1.75 Bcf/d gas equivalent) and a target startup date of 2029, this project represents one of the largest energy investments ever undertaken in Africa.  Overall, TotalEnergies’ messaging reinforced the view that the company is positioning itself not just as a major LNG producer, but as one of the world’s leading integrated LNG portfolio managers and traders, capable of monetizing volatility, optimizing global flows, and capitalizing on growing concerns around global gas security. Management also emphasized that future LNG demand growth will depend increasingly on reliability and supply flexibility, rather than simply low-cost production.

Kitsault Energy Revives BC Export Hub as LNG Reshapes AECO -Developers of the Kitsault Energy project in northwest British Columbia (BC) are shining the spotlight on the former mining area once again as answer to Canada’s strategy of expanding exports and economic ties to Asian allies.NGI chart shows NOVA/AECO C spot, forward natural gas prices in Western Canada rising above $2/MMBtu by winter 2027-2028. At a Glance:

• C$40B plan targets Asian buyers
• Kitsault seeks role in LNG boom
• Pipeline approvals remain key hurdle

Shell’s ARC Deal Seen as ‘Big Vote of Confidence’ for Western Canada  -Shell’s recently announced acquisition of ARC Resources could be transformative for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, signaling a shift toward major international investment and a potential acceleration of west coast LNG exports. Map of Western Canada natural gas pipelines, LNG export terminals, data centers, power generation, proposed infrastructure projects. At a Glance:
- LNG Canada expansion gains push
- Regulators face faster approval calls
- ARC adds major natural gas volumes

Global Natural Gas Prices Rise as Iran War Squeezes Markets -Asian and European natural gas prices charged higher on Monday for the seventh trading session in a row as tensions in the Middle East flared and the market continued to tighten.North America LNG export flow tracker showing US feed gas deliveries near 16.8 million Dth/d across major LNG terminals in May 2026.
At a Glance:
No end in sight for conflict
TTF, JKM climb
Outages multiply

Wood Mackenzie Warns Hormuz Closure Could Reshape LNG Demand - An extended disruption caused by a prolonged Iran War could have severe impacts on the global LNG market, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.  At a Glance:

• Middle East LNG faces lasting losses
• Asian buyers lean on coal
• US exporters gain diversification demand

Govt gets $61M in compensation from IOPC for Tobago oilspill disaster - Trinidad Guardian - Two years after Gulfstream capsized off the coast of Tobago, causing an oil spill affecting Scarborough and the Southern Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago has only managed to recover just over $61 million from its clean-up operations from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds). The IOPC had a compensation offer to T&T of $86.3 million. The clean-up operations were handled by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and Heritage and totalled $311.7 million according to claims submitted to the IOPC. According to documents obtained by Guardian Media Investigations Desk, the MEEI has only been reimbursed $51.6 million from $138.9 million in claims submitted and reviewed, while Heritage has only been reimbursed $10 million from $50 million in claims submitted. The documents showed that the IOPC reviewed $189.3 million in claims, queried $84 million, rejected $15 million and eventually paid $61 million as of March 2026. If T&T wants to access more money from the IOPC, it has until February 2027 to make further claims. Under the IOPC’s rules, claimants ultimately lose their right to compensation under the 1992 Fund Convention after a three-year period. The latest IOPC report on the Gulfstream oil spill, dated March 10, 2026, said 306 claims had been assessed and $60,567,688 had been paid. Those claims covered clean-up operations in Tobago and fisheries where oil from the spill also washed ashore. It also covered operations surrounding the salvaging of the vessel and the remaining bunker fuel. T&T has access to the IOPC’s 1992 Fund, which allows countries affected by spills to seek compensation for eligible clean-up and recovery costs. But claims are not paid automatically. They must be supported by invoices, accounting records and other evidence showing the money was actually spent and that the loss can be quantified. In May 2024, the IOPC document had said: “Initial estimates of the cost of the response to the oil spill, inclusive of oil removal from the wreck so far, is in the region of USD 23.5 million (TTD 160 million). So far, it is estimated that USD12.5 million (TTD 85 million) has been spent as of 6 April 2024. Further costs and claims for economic losses are expected. Bulk clean-up operations were completed in March 2024 and the shoreline clean-up is expected to be completed in April 2024. The oil removal from the wreck is also expected to be completed by mid-May 2024.” In a May 11 IOPC document, T&T’s delegation acknowledged that the country was party to the international oil-spill compensation conventions, but had not yet passed the local laws needed to bring those rules fully into local law at the time of the Gulfstream oil spill. That did not stop T&T from making claims and getting access to the IOPC Funds following lobbying by former minister of energy Stuart Young in 2024 during his tenure. According to the document, T&T told the IOPC that it faces challenges dedicating money to the claims process and to the continued investigation of the Solo Creed and its owners through the Maritime Services Division and the Caricom Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (Caricom IMPACS). In an exclusive investigation by Guardian Media and Bellingcat in March 2024, the registered owner of the Solo Creed was identified as Melissa Rona Gonzalez, an officer of Melaj Offshore Corporation, whose principal owner is Augustine Jackson. Jackson has a history of involvement in oil deals in Venezuela and Guyana. But when contacted, Jackson claimed that the Solo Creed and the Gulfstream barge had been sold to Abraham Olalekan of Nigeria. The IOPC Secretariat said it had been engaging with the State Attorney’s Office in T&T on the proper implementation of the conventions into domestic law. The Gulfstream barge capsized and sank off Tobago in early February 2024 while being towed by the tug Solo Creed. According to the IOPC report, the barge began spilling oil about 16 km off Tobago before coming to rest between 150 and 200m off Canoe Bay. It said the vessel was believed to have been travelling from Pozuelos Bay, Venezuela, to Guyana. No emergency calls were transmitted by the tug. The IOPC report said remnants of the oil slick travelled about 830 km across the Caribbean Sea. On February 26, 2024, traces of oil and tar balls washed up on the east coast of Bonaire. T&T Salvage LLC and QT Environmental Inc were retained to remove oil from the wreck and remove the vessel. By August 2024, 32,675 barrels of oil had been recovered from the Gulfstream. The barge was refloated on August 19, 2024, and towed to Trinidad, arriving on August 22, 2024. The oil was later advertised for sale by auction. According to the document, because the origin of the oil could not be determined, only one international buyer was willing to purchase it in late 2025 for about US$986,000. The IOPC report said the money will be used to defray costs incurred by the country and reduce its claims against the 1992 Fund.

Venezuela minister wants compensation from T&T for oil spill - Trinidad Guardian - Venezuela’s Foreign Affairs Minister Yván Gil is demanding information from Trinidad and Tobago about the recent oil spill that his government insists originated from Trinidad, as well as compensation for the fallout from it. Venezuela’s state-run media VTV yesterday reported that Gil said the spill, which emanated from a Heritage Petroleum field, is “extremely serious,” as is “the lack of information” from T&T’s Government, and asserted that they do not know the exact origin, volume and type of hydrocarbons involved from the incident. “Trinidad and Tobago has an obligation, first and foremost, to immediately report to the Venezuelan government any spill or environmental incident. Secondly, we must have information on the type of product that was spilled and the measures taken to mitigate it,” Gil stated. The Foreign Affairs Minister demanded “responsibility for this type of event” and asserted that his country has sent various types of communication statements to the T&T Government to assess the impact. Gil showed satellite images recorded since April 28 that show the spill from Trinidad. He also said Venezuela has been “working for several weeks” on this “very worrying issue” with teams from the Venezuelan Ministries of Eco-socialism (Environment) and Fisheries and Aquaculture; the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the National Institute of Aquatic Spaces (INEA) and the Navy. Gil warned of an impact to 1,625 square kilometres in 12 strategic wetland systems in his country, as well as on the activity of more than 500 fishermen. In addition, Gil pointed out that four Venezuelan national parks are at risk. “There have been operational limitations for the fishing fleet, which generates significant costs and limits marketing. There has been a real economic and environmental impact,” the foreign minister stated, adding that more than 140 fish species were affected in the area, in addition to the mangroves. He also claimed that this was not the first oil spill from T&T that has affected Venezuela. “So far, more than 12 tons of hydrocarbon products have been collected and are being analysed,” Gil said, adding that “between 2015 and 2023, more than 876 spills of different types of compounds occurred in the area.” Contacted for comment on the claim yesterday, Energy and Energy Industries Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal said, “We are arranging to have discussions with our Venezuelan counterparts later this week and will sort out all these matters re small oil spill. We have been busy doing the technical and scientific work.” Two weeks ago, in response to a Venezuelan government communiqué on the oil spill, T&T’s Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries released an account of the incident confirming that Heritage Petroleum detected an oil spill at its main offshore field at approximately 7.25 am on May 1. The ministry reported that oil spill trajectory modelling indicated a risk of untreated hydrocarbons potentially crossing into Venezuelan waters.

Imports of Venezuelan Crude Soar to Highest Level Since 2019 | RBN Energy -  According to today’s EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended May 9, U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude surged to 588 Mb/d (far right of chart below), marking the highest weekly volume since January 2019. Venezuelan crude imports have trended steadily higher throughout much of 2026, as Gulf Coast refiners increased purchases of heavy sour barrels following the U.S.-Venezuela trade agreement announced earlier this year, alongside tightening global supply balances and ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.As discussed in our Crude Billboard, this rebound comes as refiners continue to run hard and prioritize distillate production, increasing demand for heavier feedstocks that can maximize diesel and jet fuel yields. Even with the sharp increase in Venezuelan arrivals, strong crude exports of 5.5 MMb/d kept net U.S. imports near historically low levels, underscoring how rapidly Atlantic Basin trade flows are reshuffling to offset geopolitical supply risks. For more on the situation in Venezuela and its export capabilities, see Keep On Pushin'.

Keep Pushin’ – Venezuela’s Crude Oil Terminals Need Minor Fixes, Major Overhauls to Boost Exports | RBN Energy -A lot of work must be done to revive Venezuela’s crude oil industry, which has suffered from years of poor management and underinvestment. One of the biggest priorities is to improve and expand its export capacity, which will require repairs and upgrades to export terminals while also fixing problems around unreliable power supply and tanker congestion. Exports have rebounded sharply in early 2026 after collapsing late last year, but much more could happen. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll outline the additional steps that could be completed to improve Venezuela’s facilities and boost export volumes.Venezuela has been a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere since the start of the year, when U.S. forces deposed and arrested President Nicolás Maduro. In Take Me Money and Run Venezuela, we recapped how the country went from a major global supplier to producing less than 1 MMb/d today — roughly one-quarter of its former output. We then dug into Venezuela’s crude slate in Orinoco Flow, noting that most reserves lie in the 21,000-square-mile Orinoco Belt and are extra-heavy, making the oil difficult and costly to move and refine. In When Love Comes to Town, we compared Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crudes and why they’re attractive to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. In Round and Round (which previewed our first Drill Down Report of 2026, which is available here), we laid out the practical steps Venezuela would need to take to boost crude production. Most recently, The Show Goes On detailed the country’s refining sector, Upgrade U examined the important role the country’s crude upgraders figure to play in any plan to boost domestic production and increase exports, while Don’t You (Forget About Me) looked at the country’s expansive natural gas reserves. Most Venezuelan crude oil production is low-API, high-sulfur crude, coming from the previously noted Orinoco Belt. Because the crude is so dense and viscous, it needs to be blended with a diluent — typically condensate or natural gasoline — or upgraded to a lighter synthetic crude oil (SCO) before it can be transported easily, similar to crude produced in the Canadian oil sands. Exports of crude and refined products have rebounded sharply this year after collapsing late last year. Shipments bottomed out near 100 Mb/d in early January (see Figure 1 below) following a steep December decline, then recovered to roughly 500–550 Mb/d by late January. After holding relatively flat through February, exports climbed to around 1.1 MMb/d in March — the highest level in about six months — before briefly spiking to around 1.4 MMb/d in early April.

Norway’s Natural Gas Role Grows as Europe Manages LNG Risk - Germany’s carbon-conscious electricity traders are turning to Norwegian pipeline natural gas supply as LNG price volatility shakes up Europe’s energy transition. At a Glance:

• Equinor secures German demand
• Natural gas backs renewable growth
• Europe seeks lower emissions supply

VLGC Freight Rate to Japan Hits All-Time High - The impact of the war in Iran, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have certainly impacted crude oil and LNG markets, but as we wrote in Stuck in a (Gulf) You Can’t Get Out Of, the LPG market hasn’t gotten away unscathed by a long shot. Since the start of the year, the spot VLGC freight rate from the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) to Chiba, Japan via the Panama Canal has risen 126%, going from $136/MT to a record $307.5/MT as of May 11 (righthand chart in figure below).There are two big things going on that are driving the increase in freight rate. The first, and largest piece of the puzzle is the increase in Asian demand for USGC LPG cargoes, parts of the world that have traditionally sourced the majority of their imports from the Persian Gulf. The second, growing congestion, and fees at the Panama Canal has started to impact VLGC navigation. According to RBN’s NGL Voyager Report, more vessels are making the voyage to Southeast Asia and parts of India via the Cape of Good Hope (COGH). The result is longer transit times both laden (with cargo) and unladen (without cargo heading back to the USGC). Not only does this cut down on vessel availability, but the longer transit times also raises the tonnage cost.So long as these two factors continue to impact the VLGC freight market, which seems likely for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, spot freight rates to Asia are likely to remain elevated.

Bessent confirmed that the US will extend the authorization to purchase Russian oil for another month | УНН  The US Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day general license to allow the most vulnerable countries to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This was announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, UNN reports. Bessent noted that "extending the deadline will provide additional flexibility, and we will work with these countries to provide specific licenses as needed." This general license will help stabilize the physical crude oil market and ensure oil delivery to the most energy-vulnerable countries. It will also help redirect existing supplies to the countries that need them most, reducing China's ability to stockpile discounted oil,

Malaysia urged to tighten maritime waste controls as traffic through Strait of Melaka grows | Malay Mail — The head of a waste management consultancy has warned that Malaysia must impose a stricter maritime waste management system to protect the Strait of Melaka from environmental pollution, as shipping traffic is set to increase significantly through the passageway. This is in view that the incidence of oil spills can increase as more vessels ply between Europe and Asia and are redirected through the strait as an alternative route to avoid the conflict-stricken Strait of Hormuz, said Nur Zulaikha Yusof, head of sustainability and strategic planning at Hexagon Synergy Group. She also said there should be coordination between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, which share the Strait of Melaka waterway, to ensure effective enforcement. “Vessel volume is projected to increase by between 10 and 20 per cent as more shippers seek an alternative route between Europe and Asia,” she told Bernama recently. As a result, there is a likelihood of increased oil spills as well as other incidents. This could expose the strait to greater environmental danger which could adversely affect the marine ecosystem and the livelihood of fishermen. Nur Zulaikha recounted how in just eight years between 2014 and 2022, there were an alarming 130 oil spills along the Strait of Melaka. “Accommodating more redirected vessels here makes the Strait of Melaka vulnerable.” She said the efficiency of the straits, including the Strait of Melaka, stemmed from their role in connecting Middle Eastern supply with East Asian demand. “Yet this advantage comes at a cost: the corridor is narrow, congested, and environmentally fragile.” While the recalibrating situation allows the Strait of Melaka to absorb the spillover traffic, it also creates a familiar paradox for Malaysia—greater strategic relevance accompanied by higher environmental exposure. More recently, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) identified 39 cases of illegal bilge discharge and unauthorised ship-to-ship transfers between 2021 and April 2026, often involving foreign-flagged vessels. These incidents underscore why the Strait of Melaka is not only heavily utilised, but also increasingly vulnerable, she said. Its geography magnifies risk as dense traffic funnels through narrow channels, often in proximity to coastlines and fishing grounds. This being the case, the environmental stakes are high and rising and will disrupt fisheries and the livelihood of fishermen who depend on a clean and stable marine ecosystem. New forms of pollution are also entering the equation, she said, adding that a 2021 study by the International Council on Clean Transportation identified the Melaka Strait as one of the world’s largest scrubber washwater hotspots, alongside regions in Europe and the Caribbean, with more than 180 million tonnes discharged annually. Scrubber washwater is the contaminated water byproduct generated by marine exhaust gas cleaning systems (scrubbers) used to remove sulphur and other pollutants from ship engine exhausts. “While Malaysia has banned open-loop scrubber discharge within port limits, enforcement beyond those boundaries remains difficult, allowing pollutants to accumulate in adjacent sea lanes,” she said. Nur Zulaikha also said that any sustained disruption in the Gulf, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, will push more traffic through Southeast Asia. Scenario assessments suggest vessel volumes could rise by 10–20 per cent. “That may sound manageable on paper but in reality, it compounds pressure on already strained systems such as ports, anchorages and critically, waste management infrastructure,” she said.

Drone strikes UAE nuclear plant as US and Iran rattle sabers again - A drone strike sparked a fire on the edge of the United Arab Emirates’ sole nuclear power plant Sunday in what authorities called an “unprovoked terrorist attack.” No one was blamed, but it highlighted the risk of renewed war as the United States and Iran signaled they were ready to fight again. There were no reported injuries or radiological release. The UAE, which has hosted air defenses and personnel from Israel, recently accused Iran of launching drone and missile attacks. Tensions have risen over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway tightly controlled by Iran, which is under a U.S. naval blockade. “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” President Trump posted on social media shortly after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran sparked the war on Feb. 28. Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off. “Our armed forces' fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing,” Mohsen Rezaei, a military advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television. The ceasefire remains tenuous, with diplomatic efforts for a more durable peace having faltered. And fighting has heated up between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon despite a nominal ceasefire there. Related video: Trump tells Iran 'clock is ticking' The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones had come over its western border with Saudi Arabia, with the other two intercepted. It was investigating who launched them. Iran and Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have launched repeated drone attacks targeting gulf Arab states in the war. The attack, “whether carried out by the principal actor or through one of its proxies, represents a dangerous escalation,” Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, said on social media. Saudi Arabia condemned the attack, and later said it had intercepted three drones that entered from Iraqi airspace. The $20-billion Barakah nuclear power plant was built by the UAE with the help of South Korea and went online in 2020. It is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and can provide a quarter of the energy needs in the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms that is home to Dubai. The UAE’s nuclear regulator said on X the fire didn’t affect plant safety and “all units are operating as normal.” The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said the strike caused a fire in an electrical generator and one reactor was being powered by emergency diesel generators. It's the first time the four-reactor Barakah plant has been targeted in the war. It is near the border with Saudi Arabia, some 140 miles west of the UAE's capital city, Abu Dhabi. Yemen's Irani-backed Houthi rebels, whom the UAE has battled as part of a Saudi-led coalition, claimed to have targeted the plant while it was under construction in 2017, which Abu Dhabi denied. The UAE signed a strict deal with the U.S. over the nuclear power plant, known as a “123 agreement,” in which it agreed to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel to ease any proliferation concerns. Its uranium comes from abroad. That's very different from the nuclear program in Iran, which is at the heart of long-running tensions with the United States and Israel. Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes, but it has enriched its uranium close to weapons-grade levels and is widely suspected of having had a military component to its program until at least 2003. It has often restricted the work of U.N. inspectors, including since the 12-day war with Israel last year. Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed country in the region, but has neither confirmed nor denied having atomic weapons. Iran struck near Israel's Dimona nuclear facility during the war. Nuclear plants have increasingly been targeted in wars in recent years, including during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in 2022. During the Iran war, Tehran has repeatedly claimed its Bushehr nuclear power plant came under attack, though there was no direct damage to its Russian-run reactor or any radiological release.

Barakah Nuclear Attack Pushes a New Oil Price Hike -Times of Dubai -  A drone attacked a power generator on the outskirts of Barakah nuclear power plant in Al Dhafra region, Abu Dhabi, on Sunday evening. While it was an attack on a crucial infrastructure facility, the authorities confirmed it did not cause radiation leaks nor did it lead to any injuries. All units are reportedly operating normally, according to the UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation. In every sense of the word, the Barakah nuclear attack was contained. However, the response from the oil market was more significant. By Monday morning, Brent crude climbed 1.62 percent to $111.03 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2.01 percent to $107.54. Reuters reported both contracts climbed to 2-week highs but pulled back a bit. The oil prices that followed the Barakah nuclear attack were not only caused by the burning generator, they once again underscored just how unfairly this war is hitting the common man across the globe. The Barakah nuclear power plant is the first nuclear power plant in the Arab world, situated in the UAE’s Al Dhafra region which is adjacent to major oil and gas facilities in western Abu Dhabi. The plant is currently operating four reactor units to generate around 25 per cent of the UAE’s electricity. The drone crashed into an electrical generator located outside the inner security fence at the facility, but the explosion only caused a fire which was contained without any structural or radioactive damage, as per a report by Arabian Gulf Business Insight. The UAE’s Foreign Ministry released a statement calling the strike a “dangerous escalation, an unacceptable act of aggression, and a direct threat to the country’s security. The UAE has the right to respond to what the UAE officials described as “terrorist attacks,” they said. Three drones were also intercepted separately in Saudi Arabia on the same day from Iraqi airspace, as per a Reuters report. The geographic spread of Sunday’s strikes across two countries in a single day confirmed that the conflict’s infrastructure targeting strategy is widening, not narrowing. The oil prices after the Barakah nuclear attack generated on Monday are not a standalone event. They are the latest increment in a sustained, structurally driven energy price surge that began the moment the war started on February 28. Understanding what Barakah nuclear attack on Sunday added requires understanding what was already in place. When the first US-Israeli airstrikes hit Iran on February 28, Brent crude was trading at approximately $65 to $68 per barrel. Within ten days it had crossed $120, a 65 percent increase that the World Road Transport Organisation (IRU) described as one of the fastest oil price escalations in modern market history. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil on a daily basis. By the end of March, overall oil export losses were more than 13 million barrels per day, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) had estimated that of the 360 million barrels exported, producing an unprecedented 6 million barrel per day supply-demand gap, and an additional 440 million would be exported in April. In the process the energy infrastructure of the region sustained a blow after another. A drone attacked Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery in Ras Tanura on March 2. It shut down for weeks, and immediately caused a global price increase. Each time a critical energy facility was targeted, the market added a new risk premium to crude prices. Sunday’s strike on Barakah adds another layer to that premium calculation. Both Brent and WTI gained more than 7 percent last week alone as hopes for a peace deal that would end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz faded, according to Reuters. Sunday’s attack arrived on top of that 7 percent weekly gain, compounding rather than initiating a rally that was already in motion. The oil price movement on Monday is not just about one generator. It is about what comes next. US President Donald Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for military action against Iran, according to Axios. On Truth Social over the weekend, he posted: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” That language, combined with the stalling of ceasefire negotiations, has reintroduced the scenario markets fear most. An escalation that takes the conflict beyond its current boundaries. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore described Sunday’s drone strikes as “a pointed warning — renewed US or Israeli strikes on Iran could trigger more proxy attacks on Gulf energy and critical infrastructure by Iran or its regional proxies”. That cycle, in which Western action generates infrastructure attacks on Gulf allies, is precisely what the risk premium in current oil prices is pricing in. One additional variable shapes the current oil price environment in ways that were not present in previous regional crises. The UAE formally exited OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance on May 1. The departure removed one of the few members with meaningful spare production capacity, leaving OPEC structurally weaker and less able to manage supply responses to crises, according to Jorge León of Rystad Energy, cited by Dawn. Furthermore, the Trump administration on Saturday allowed the lapse of a sanctions waiver that had permitted countries including India to buy Russian seaborne oil, effectively tightening global supply further at precisely the moment a new attack was adding to demand for risk premium. The result is a market operating without the traditional shock absorbers. Experts believe OPEC cannot easily replace UAE spare capacity. Russian oil access is being restricted. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested. And now, the Arab world’s first nuclear power plant has been targeted by a drone strike. Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian posted on X on Sunday night that Brent crude opening above $110 in Asian markets reflected a market that had not priced in how far this conflict could still go. Sunday’s strike on Barakah was not the largest attack of this war. However, it may prove to be one of the most consequential for what it signals about the conflict’s next phase..

Oil Prices Hit Two-Week High After Drone Attack On UAE Nuclear Plant – Oil prices climbed to their highest levels in two weeks on Monday after a drone attack targeted a nuclear power facility in the United Arab Emirates, raising fears of a wider escalation in the Iran conflict and fresh disruption to global energy supplies. Brent crude rose more than 1.5 per cent to above $110 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained nearly 2 per cent as investors reacted to mounting geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. The gains came amid signs that diplomatic efforts to ease the Iran war had stalled, with the United States reportedly considering further military options against Tehran. Drone attacks targeting the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the weekend intensified concerns that the conflict could spread across the Gulf region and threaten critical oil infrastructure. “These drone strikes are a pointed warning – renewed US or Israeli strikes on Iran could trigger more proxy attacks on Gulf energy and critical infrastructure by Iran or its regional proxies,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Officials in the UAE said investigations were ongoing into the strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant, while Saudi Arabia confirmed intercepting three drones that crossed into its airspace from Iraq. Saudi authorities warned they would take “necessary operational measures” to defend the country’s sovereignty and security. Oil markets have remained volatile since attacks and seizures involving vessels around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted one of the world’s most important shipping routes for crude exports. Both Brent and WTI crude gained more than 7 per cent last week as hopes for a ceasefire between Iran and its adversaries weakened. Last week’s discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended without any major breakthrough on resolving the crisis. Reports by Axios also said Trump was expected to meet senior national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss possible military action relating to Iran. Analysts said the latest developments have heightened fears over global oil supply disruptions, especially as the United States also allowed a sanctions waiver permitting some countries to purchase Russian seaborne oil to expire. “Fears of renewed strikes on Iran have worsened supply fears the United States letting the Russia sanctions waiver lapse didn’t help,” founder of Vanda Insights, Vandana Hari, said.

Oil prices climb as Donald Trump signals tougher action on Iran | Euronews - Oil prices climbed on Monday and European markets opened lower as US President Donald Trump sent a new warning to Iran via social media. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose 1.81% to trade at $111.27 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures (WTI) for June gained 2.15% to $107.69 per barrel as investors weighed President Trump's latest message to Iran. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said on Sunday: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Washington has been locked in a conflict with Tehran since US and Israeli forces launched major strikes on the Islamic republic at the end of February. Since then, little progress has been made on ending the war that has sent global energy prices soaring. A drone strike over the weekend on a United Arab Emirates’ nuclear power plant further added to worries over a potential escalation in the conflict. In other trade early Monday, markets in Japan and South Korea pulled further back from their records. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 60,843.09, a decline led by technology-related stocks, after it reached all-time intraday high levels last week above 63,000. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond surged to 2.8%, its highest level since the late 1990s, part of a shift toward higher yields as the Bank of Japan gradually raises interest rates and higher energy costs raise expectations of rising inflation. That’s up from around 2.55% just one week ago. Seoul’s Kospi jumped 0.9% to 7,558.50 after trading lower earlier in the day. It crossed the 8,000 mark on Friday, supported by buying of technology shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence, but later declined partly on profit-taking by investors. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.6% to 25,543.32. The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% lower to 4,132.24, after China reported weaker-than-expected retail data for April. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.4% to 8,508.40, while Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 1.1%. India’s Sensex fell 0.6%. In other dealings, the US dollar rose to 159.02 Japanese yen from 158.62 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1626, up from $1.1622. Related Drone strike sparks fire near UAE nuclear plant amid Iran ceasefire tension Wall Street's fall from records US stock futures, meanwhile, were trading flat after the American stock market fell from its records on Friday and joined a worldwide drop for stocks after higher oil prices sent a shiver through the bond market. Stocks that had been caught up in the euphoria around artificial-intelligence technology led the way lower.

Oil Extends Rise on Dimming Peace Prospects, Fresh Attacks (DTN) -- Crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two weeks Monday morning on escalation fears fueled by fresh drone attacks in the Middle East and renewed threats out of Washington D.C. and Tehran. Near 7:15 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery was up $1.43 to trade near $110.69 bbl, after reaching $112 bbl earlier in the session, the highest since May 5. The NYMEX WTI contract for June rose $1.41 to $106.83 bbl on its penultimate trading day, and WTI for July delivery advanced $1.55 to $102.57 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery added $0.0710 to $4.1244 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures gained $0.0312 to $3.7331 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, down 0.055 points to 99.155 against a basket of foreign currencies. On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates reported damages to a nuclear power plant following a drone strike. The UAE and Saudi Arabia said they had intercepted several more drones. Authorities were still investigating whether the attacks came from Iran or one of its regional proxies. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, issued a new warning toward Tehran on Sunday, posting on social media that Iran "better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them." Israel also continued to launch attacks on Lebanon despite the existing ceasefire, which on Friday was extended for 45 days. Iran in early April briefly allowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the initial ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon was a core Iranian condition for further negotiations with the U.S. Oil prices rose 7% last week on dimming prospects of a negotiated permanent resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran which led to the largest oil supply disruption in history. Iran has since the start of the conflict in late February effectively halted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, shutting in a fifth of global petroleum liquids supply. The U.S. blockade of Iranian maritime trade, meanwhile, on Monday entered its fifth week. The head of the International Energy Agency on Monday warned that commercial oil inventories were rapidly depleting and would only cover a few more weeks of demand. He said that the release of strategic petroleum reserves has added some 2.5 million bpd to global oil supply, which has been in a steep deficit for more than two and a half months.

Oil Market Jumps as Drone Attacks and Fading Peace Hopes Fuel Supply Fears - The oil market continued to trend higher on Monday as the prospect for peace in the Middle East continued to fade following drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia and the rhetoric from the United States and Iran raised concerns of an escalation in the conflict. Over the weekend, Emirati officials said they were investigating the source of the strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant, adding that the UAE had the right to respond to what it said were “terrorist attacks”, while Saudi Arabia, which intercepted three drones that entered from Iraqi airspace, warned it would take the necessary operational measures to respond to any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security. Also, on Sunday, Axios reported that President Donald Trump is expected to meet national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for military action. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading, trading to $108.70. However, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $102.65 on news that Pakistan shared with the U.S. a revised proposal from Iran to end the conflict. The market was further pressured on an Iranian news report stating that the U.S. had accepted waiving sanctions on Iranian crude oil temporarily. However, the market bounced off its low and rallied higher ahead of the close to a high of $109.47. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said that commercial crude oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks of supplies left. The June WTI contract settled up $3.24 cents at $108.66 and the July Brent contract settled up $2.84 at $112.10. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.11 cents at $4.1145 and the RB market settling up 5.88 cents at $3.7607. U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was holding off on a planned military attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday, while efforts continue to reach a deal, adding that the United States was ready to resume attacking if one is not reached. He said he was asked by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hold off on its planned military attack. On Sunday, Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials, that President Donald Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday with his top national security advisers to discuss the options for military action regarding Iran. Bloomberg reported that about 23 tankers have been spotted around Iran’s Kharg Island, the largest cluster to have gathered at the island since the U.S. Navy began a blockade on the country’s ports a month ago. The carriers berthed at crude or liquefied petroleum gas loading jetties were visible on satellite images taken on May 16th. The current number of tankers compares to four on April 13th, just before U.S. warships began gathering in the Gulf of Oman to check and stop vessels. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 58,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 22nd, increasing available refining capacity by 397,000 bpd from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 99,000 bpd in the week ending May 29th.

Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns - Hawaii Tribune-— Oil prices climbed about 3% to a two-week high in volatile trade on Monday as worries over supply disruption from the Iran war offset a report that the U.S. had agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian crude during talks. Brent futures for July delivery rose $2.84, or 2.6%, to settle at $112.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery rose $3.24, or 3.1%, to settle at $108.66. That was the highest close for Brent since May 4 and the highest for WTI since April 7. Futures are often volatile ahead of contract expiration due to low volumes. With only around 55,000 contracts traded, WTI June futures, which rose over $4 a barrel and fell over $2 on Monday, will expire on Tuesday. WTI front-month volume has averaged about 359,000 contracts per day in 2026. After the market closed, both crude benchmarks pared gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would hold off an attack on Iran that was scheduled for Tuesday. Last week, both contracts jumped more than 7% as hopes dimmed for a peace deal to end the almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ worth left due to the conflict and the closure of the strait to shipping. Birol, who is participating in the Group of Seven finance leaders meeting in Paris, told reporters the release of strategic reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but they were “not endless”. “We feel that progress toward a diplomatic solution to the U.S./Iran war is little changed from around the middle of March when nearby WTI was about where it is now,” analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim said it was told by a source close to the negotiation team that unlike its previous texts, the Americans had accepted in the new text to waive Iran’s oil sanctions during the period of talks.

Oil prices plunge as Trump decides to halt strike on Iran | УНН --Oil prices fell by 2% in early Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he had suspended a planned strike on Iran to allow for negotiations to end the war in the Middle East, UNN reports, citing Reuters. Brent crude futures for July delivery fell $2.26, or 2%, to $109.84 a barrel by 03:52 GMT (06:52 Kyiv time), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery fell $1.22, or 1.1%, to $107.44. In the previous session, the benchmarks reached their highest levels since May 5 and April 30, respectively. The June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, while the more active July contract fell $1.63, or 1.6%, to $102.75 per barrel. On Monday, Trump stated there is a "very high probability" of the U.S. reaching a deal with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, hours after announcing a cessation of hostilities for negotiations. "While Trump's signal has somewhat eased immediate pressure, fundamental risks remain… The market is now watching to see if Trump's comments represent a genuine shift toward de-escalation or just a tactical pause," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. In addition, Iran's reaction to recent events and what is actually happening on the water with tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz are key factors determining the further movement of oil prices, the publication writes. Iran ready to transfer uranium stockpiles to Russia as part of peace deal with US - media 19.05.26, 08:59 • 3809 views The conflict in the Middle East has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, raising fears of supply disruptions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on Monday that Tehran's position had been conveyed to the U.S. via Pakistan but provided no further details. A Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that Islamabad had conveyed a new proposal between the two sides but emphasized slow progress. "One would think the oil market would become increasingly indifferent to such headlines," ING said in an analyst note to clients. "However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and becomes more concerning with each day that oil supplies remain suspended." Meanwhile, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Washington had agreed to lift sanctions on Tehran's oil exports during the talks, but a U.S. official denied the claim. Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a sanctions waiver for 30 days to allow "energy-vulnerable" countries to continue purchasing Russian oil by sea. According to the Department of Energy, a record 9.9 million barrels of oil were withdrawn from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, bringing inventories down to approximately 374 million barrels, the lowest level since July 2024. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.4 million barrels in the week ending May 15.

Oil Slips After Trump Alleges Iran Strike Postponement -- Oil futures edged lower Tuesday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had put on hold planned Tuesday attacks on Iran amid the current ceasefire. Near 08:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery was down $1.07 to trade near $111.03 barrel (bbl) and NYMEX WTI for June delivery fell $0.28 to $108.38 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery softened $0.0305 to $4.0840 gallon and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures slipped by $0.0423 to $3.7184 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, up 0.045 points to 99.15 against a basket of foreign currencies. The president on Monday claimed he postponed new strikes on Iran scheduled for Tuesday at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, alleging "serious negotiations" were taking place. Oil prices slipped in response to the announcement. The month-long ceasefire has so far mostly held, allowing for potential negotiations. Tehran's key demands for peace were little changed in its latest proposal submitted to the United States. Iranian state media reported that the peace offer included an end of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, the lifting of sanctions, a reduction of U.S. military presence in the region and the payment of reparations. The White House is reportedly open to sanctions relief but has in the past ruled out war damage reparations and a military scale back. The U.S. Treasury, meanwhile, on Monday extended the sanctions waver on Russian oil for 30 days. Indian refiners have relied heavily on Russian crude oil amid the drought of deliveries from the Middle East. In the U.S., the largest oil supply disruption in history continued to draw on inventories amid surging exports. Commercial crude oil stocks have over the past four weeks shrunken by more than 12.8 million bbl, and the strategic petroleum reserve fell 33.8 million bbl to its lowest level in nearly two years. Total oil and product inventories have been declining since late March and are expected to further decrease as domestic crude and fuel demand pick up the pace and international demand is set to remain high. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory estimate is scheduled for release later Tuesday, followed by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Oil slips as Vance cites Iran talk progress - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday after Vice President JD Vance said the US and Iran had made progress in talks, with neither side wanting to see a resumption of military action. "We think that we've made a lot of progress. We think the Iranians want to make a deal," Vance told reporters at a White House briefing. On Monday, Trump posted on social media that he was holding off on a military attack that had been scheduled for Tuesday. Efforts to reach a deal with Iran continued, though he added the US was ready to resume attacks if a deal was not reached. Brent futures for July settled down 82 cents, or 0.73%, at US$111.28 a barrel. The US West Texas Intermediate crude contract for June delivery, which expired on Tuesday, settled down 89 cents, or 0.82%, to US$107.77. The more-active July contract settled down 23 cents at US$104.15. Even with Tuesday's dip, prices remained elevated. On Monday, Brent hit its highest since May 5 and WTI its highest since April 30. "We continue to have significant amounts of oil offline and with the regional infrastructure being in the crosshairs we are just holding our breath here until either we get a deal or another round of military action, so a pretty significant binary outcome awaits," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. The Middle East conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that typically carries daily about a fifth of global supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas, creating the world's biggest oil supply disruption, according to the International Energy Agency. Tehran's latest peace proposal to the US involves ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran and reparations for destruction caused by the war, state media reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian foreign currency exchange house and what it said were front companies overseeing transactions on behalf of Iranian banks. It also blocked 19 vessels it said were involved in shipping Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals to foreign customers. Elsewhere, Chinese state refiners have slashed oil throughput by more than 1 million barrels per day since the outbreak of the Iran war, analysts and market sources said, as disruption to crude supplies and poor margins forced them to scale back operations. Chinese state refiners are processing 8.4 million barrels per day of crude this month, down from 8.6 million bpd in April and 9.5 million bpd in March, according to consultancy Energy Aspects. That compares with about 10 million bpd before the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a sanctions waiver by 30 days to allow "energy-vulnerable" countries to continue purchasing Russian seaborne oil. Separately, Russia's Ryazan oil refinery, which accounts for almost 5% of the country's total refining volumes, stopped processing after a Ukrainian drone attack last Friday, two industry sources said on Tuesday. In the US, a record 9.9 million barrels were drawn last week from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Energy Department data showed. This reduced stockpiles to about 374 million barrels, the lowest since July 2024. US crude stocks are expected to have fallen by about 3.4 million barrels in the week to May 15. The weekly data from the Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday.

Oil Market Remains Volatile Amid U.S.-Iran Talks and Conflict Fears -- The crude market on Tuesday posted an inside trading day after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he paused a planned attack on Iran that had been planned for Tuesday to allow for negotiations to end the war. However, President Trump said the U.S. was ready to resume attacks if a deal is not reached, which limited the market’s losses. The oil market posted a low of $106.76 on the opening and retraced some of its losses, posting a high of $109.24 by mid-morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The June WTI contract settled down 89 cents at $107.77 and the July Brent contract settled 82 cents at $111.28. The oil market ended lower in light of comments made by Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran made progress in talks, with neither country wanting a resumption of military action. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 4.8 cents at $4.1625 and the RB market settling down 6.45 cents at $3.6962. The Trump administration imposed sanctions on an Iranian foreign currency exchange house and what it said were front companies overseeing transactions on behalf of Iranian banks as the U.S. maintains pressure on Tehran. The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the Iran-based Amin Exchange, also known as Ebrahimi and Associates Partnership Company, which it said has a widespread network of front companies spanning multiple jurisdictions, including in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Hong Kong. The U.S. also blocked 19 vessels it said were involved in shipping Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals to foreign customers. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said there were no special arrangements in place for the export of energy products, but that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had added complexity to supply chains in the region. Saudi state media reported that Saudi Ports Authority Mawani has launched the “Red Sea Express” shipping service at King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, to speed up cargo handling, cut waiting times, and increase logistics efficiency at the port. The service links the ports of Jeddah, Yanbu, Ain Sokhna in Egypt, and Aqaba in Jordan. King Fahd Industrial Port, in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, is one of the largest ports for loading crude oil and petrochemicals in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has increased shipments through Yanbu to offset a near-halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. According to BloombergNEF, U.S. diesel prices have increased more sharply than gasoline, passing $5.60/gallon last week, 20 cents shy of a 2022 peak. It said the increased price of diesel makes a compelling business case for electric trucks, in a market now boosted by the first large-scale production of Tesla Inc.’s Semi offering.

Oil prices subdued amid mixed signals from US on Iran war - Global oil prices traded subdued on Wednesday morning, holding above $110 a barrel, as markets weighed mixed signals from US president Donald Trump on the prospects of the war on Iran.At 8:11 AM, the July contract of Brent was trading at $111 per barrel, lower by 0.25%, while WTI fell 0.21% to $103.93 a barrel.The relative calm in crude comes even as geopolitical risks remain elevated, the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, and India—heavily dependent on West Asian crude—raises retail fuel prices for the second time in a week.. Trump claimed that efforts were underway to end the ongoing conflict, while also warning that Washington could launch fresh strikes if negotiations failed.Trump told reporters that the US could launch a renewed strike on Iran by early next week if negotiations to end the conflict fail, noting that further attacks might become necessary, reported Al Jazeera. Further, the US Senate has advanced a resolution to halt the military campaign in Iran unless the US president receives an explicit approval from the Congress. The resolution, however, requires a majority in the House, after which it would face Trump’s presidential veto in order to take effect.On the other hand, Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a tweet: "With lessons learned and knowledge we gained, return to war will feature many more surprises."The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted India as prior to the war, it imported about 60–70% of its oil requirement from West Asia.The supply shock has begun feeding into domestic pump prices. Retail fuel prices in India were raised for the second time in a week on Tuesday. Oil marketing companies increased petrol and diesel prices by around 90 paise per litre.In the national capital, petrol prices rose from ₹97.77 to ₹98.64 per litre, while diesel increased from ₹90.67 to ₹91.58 per litre, according to data from Indian Oil Corp Ltd.Prices were earlier hiked by ₹3 per litre on Friday, 15 May, after a gap of four years.Following Friday’s increase, state-owned oil firms have reduced their combined daily losses to ₹750 crore from ₹1,000 crore, Sujata Sharma, joint secretary, petroleum ministry, told reporters on Monday.The Indian crude oil basket stood at $112.79 per barrel as on 18 May. It represents a derived basket comprising Sweet grade (Brent Dated) and Sour grade (Oman & Dubai average) of crude oil imported by Indian refineries.

Oil Slips on De-escalation Hopes as VLCCs Attempt Transit (DTN) -- Oil futures extended their decline Wednesday morning on hopes of a detente in the U.S.-Iran war and of a sooner-than-expected resumption of flows from the Middle East. By 7:25 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery was down $2.61 to trade near $108.67 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for July delivery fell $2.11 to $102.04 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery slipped $0.1137 to $4.0488 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures retreated $0.0772 to $3.6190 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher by 0.045 points to 99.31 against a basket of foreign currencies. Tuesday's remarks from the White House weighed on oil futures. U.S. President Donald Trump said he for now prioritized diplomacy over renewed attacks, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance touted progress in peace talks, adding that "the Iranians want to make a deal." Prices also eased on reports suggesting that NATO was considering a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz should the Iranian blockade persist through June. This would mark a stark reversal from the defensive alliance's previous stance which limited involvement to post-conflict stabilization. Two Chinese-flagged and one South Korean VLCC, carrying a combined 6 million bbl of crude oil, attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday before they stopped transmitting signals. If successful, it would mark the first time in more than three weeks that three laden VLCCs not linked to Iran made it through the blockade. Although largely symbolic given the scale of the supply disruption, a safe passage of the three ships may entice other shippers to attempt the same as Asian refiners grow increasingly desperate for crude oil barrels. Oil importers have increasingly turned to the U.S. to plug the supply gap, leading to record-high crude and refined product exports from the U.S. rapidly drawing down inventories. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported across-the-board declines in domestic gasoline, distillate fuel oil and crude oil stocks. The API estimated that commercial crude inventories shrank by 9.1 million bbl in the week ended May 15. If confirmed by official U.S. Energy Information Administration data scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release Wednesday, the fourth consecutive weekly decline in commercial oil stocks would mark the largest since September.

Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom  - Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation. "We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they're tired of - this should have happened for 47 years," Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House's annual congressional picnic on Tuesday. "Somebody should have done something about it. And it's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. And you're going to see oil prices plummet," the president added. Oil's declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement: On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks "one of the busiest days since the closure." However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region.. The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their "devastating blows will crush" the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website. For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight... API

• Crude -9.1mm (-3.4mm exp)
• Cushing -1.4mm
• Gasoline -5.8mm
• Distillates -1.0mm

DOE

• Crude -7.863mm (-6.0mm exp)
• Cushing -1.604mm
• Gasoline -1.548mm
• Distillates +372k

Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gasoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row while distillates saw another small build... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks... Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history... Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014. Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching 'tank bottoms' once again... US Crude production dipped very modestly last week... WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw... Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end. "The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie. "The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth." The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday. It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day...

Oil prices slide after Trump says US-Iran negotiations in 'final stages' (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 6% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages, although investors remained ‌wary about the outcome of peace talks as disruption to Middle Eastern supply continued. Brent crude futures settled $6.26, or 5.63%, lower at $105.02 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $5.89, or 5.66%, at $98.26. Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the final stages but warned of further attacks unless Iran agreed to a deal. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran was ready to develop protocols for safe shipping traffic in cooperation with other coastal states, without providing further details. Despite signs of progress, some market participants ⁠and analysts remained wary about the outcome of negotiations and global supply tightness that will likely persist even if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal. "You've got to take all these pronouncements with a grain of salt these days, but the market was also quick to reward it and price in the hope of a resolution," . Analysts at Citi said on Tuesday that they expect Brent crude to rise to $120 a barrel in the near term, stating that oil markets are underpricing the risk of prolonged supply disruption, and Wood Mackenzie estimated that it could approach $200 if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely shut until the end of the year. Similarly, PVM analysts said global oil stocks could reach critically low levels. "Yet, as observed lately, market players are comparatively nonchalant (or complacent) about what the ‌conflict ⁠might bring," PVM said. The premium on Brent contracts for delivery next month over contracts for delivery in six months - an indicator of traders' views of current supply tightness - is around $20 a barrel, way below last month's highs above $35. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that some countries were lifting sanctions on Russian oil because global markets cannot function without it, the state TASS news agency reported. After a blockbuster earnings season, the honeymoon for stocks may be fading fast. Three supertankers were crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying ⁠oil bound for Asian markets, after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months with 6 million barrels of Middle East crude on board. The number of vessels crossing the strait remains well below the 130 or so ships that crossed daily before the war. The CEO of UAE's ADNOC, Sultan Al ⁠Jaber, said on Wednesday it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows. To make up the supply shortfall, countries are relying on commercial and strategic inventories. U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week as demand remained elevated, the Energy Information Administration said on ⁠Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ended May 15, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel draw.

Oil prices gain 3% after Reuters report signals complication to US-Iran peace talks - Oil prices were up 3% on Thursday after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, denting hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The report, citing two senior Iranian sources, signaled that Tehran is hardening its stance on a key U.S. demand. The directive from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei could further complicate negotiations and frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker an end to the war. Brent crude futures gained $3.07, or 2.9%, to $108.09 a barrel at 11:12 a.m. EDT (1512 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $3.52, or 3.6%, to $101.78. Both were trading lower before the report. The development came a day after Iran’s announcement of a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” which would oversee a “controlled maritime zone” in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices were volatile. Gains accelerated after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a proposed tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible. Prices pared gains later after he added that officials from Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator, will travel to Iran for talks. Pakistan stepped up diplomatic efforts to hasten the U.S.-Iran peace talks, as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest responses. Trump suggested he could wait a few days for “the right answers” from Tehran but was also willing to resume attacks on the country. “We’ve been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment,” ING analysts said in a note on Thursday, forecasting an average Brent price of $104 a barrel in the current quarter. Separately, UBS raised its oil price forecasts by $10 a barrel on Thursday, projecting Brent crude at $105 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $97 in September. Iran warned against further attacks and unveiled steps entrenching its control of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains mostly closed. Before the war the strait carried oil and liquefied natural gas shipments equal to about 20% of global consumption. Economic activity in the euro zone shrank at its sharpest rate in more than 2-1/2 years in May as a war-driven surge in living costs hammered demand for services across Europe and firms accelerated layoffs, surveys showed on Thursday. Seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries will likely agree to a modest hike in July output when they meet on June 7, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing four sources. Typically, output decisions from the group would move markets, but that was not the case during Thursday’s session, as supply disruptions linked to the Iran war continue to affect deliveries from several producers. The start of peak summer fuel demand combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and depleting stocks could push the oil market into the “red zone” in July-August, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said on Thursday. Even if the Middle East conflict ended now, full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, Sultan Al Jaber , the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) said. Iran effectively closed the strait in response to the U.S. and Israeli attacks that started the war on February 28. Most of the fighting has stopped since an April ceasefire, but while Iran is limiting traffic through Hormuz, the U.S. has blockaded its coastline. Supply losses from the key Middle Eastern producing region because of the war have forced countries to tap their commercial and strategic inventories at a rapid rate, raising concerns about draining them. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday the country withdrew nearly 10 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week for its biggest drawdown on record. U.S. crude inventories also fell by more than expected last week, according to EIA data.

Oil prices fall after Iranian news agency says US and Iran may be 'hours' from announcing deal - Oil prices abruptly reversed course Thursday afternoon, turning from gains to losses on news that the US and Iran may be only hours away from announcing terms for peace negotiations. Futures on Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 2.6% to trade around $102.30 per barrel after gaining as much as 3.5% before the news broke. Those on US benchmark WTI crude fell 2.5% to trade below $96 after rising as much as 4% earlier in the session.  The US and Iran have reached an agreement, mediated by Pakistan, that includes a full ceasefire — including any targeting of infrastructure — “freedom of navigation” in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, and a gradual lifting of economic sanctions on Iran, the Iranian semi-official news agency ILNA said in a post on Telegram.  While the post from the ILNA made no mention of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, it stated that negotiations on “outstanding issues” would begin within seven days. US and Iranian negotiators have been working toward an agreement that would bring both parties back to the table for second-round negotiations after a first round fell apart in mid-April.The losses marked a sharp change of course for oil prices that had originally risen on Thursday after Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the regime’s stores of enriched, near-weapons-grade uranium shouldn’t be sent abroad, throwing a wrench into dealmaking between the US and the Islamic Republic.The development complicates negotiations between Iran and the US, where the White House has said the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium supply is a key red line for any deal.Trump has repeatedly stated his belief that Iran can’t develop nuclear weaponry and that the US must dismantle the country’s enrichment program for any deal to go through. He has reportedly personally assured Israeli leaders that any deal must include the removal of the uranium stores, per Reuters.The directive from Tehran throws into question Trump’s comments on the US getting close to a deal with Iran. The regime is reportedly working on a response to the latest US proposal that “narrowed the gaps to some extent,” according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.  Mediators see few signs of progress toward agreement between Washington and Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. Iran has remained steadfast in its demands for war reparations, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, while the regime continues to deny US goals for dismantling the country’s nuclear program.“Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, another 14 million barrels of oil has failed to make it to market, and the first two months on the Brent curve are trading over $100,” Mizuho director of energy futures Robert Yawger said Thursday morning.Trump said Wednesday that he is prepared to direct military action against Iran if the US doesn’t receive “complete 100% good answers” from the Iranian regime, telling reporters, “It’s right on the borderline, believe me.” When asked how long he would be willing to wait for a response from Tehran, he added that a decision to strike “could go very quickly.”Tehran said the same day that any US military action would be met with “crushing blows in places you do not expect” throughout the Middle East, per the state-owned Tasnim news agency, and that “the regional war that had been promised will this time extend beyond the region.” Oil’s slide on Wednesday came after reports that a South Korean supertanker and two Chinese supertankers, all laden with crude, were successfully transiting the strait. However, the ships appeared to follow a route designated by Iran, according to ship-tracking data, and the Iranian government claimed South Korean and Chinese leaders had directly coordinated the passage of three ships with the IRGC.Reports have documented Iran’s strengthening control over safe passage, which includes directing routes, charging fees, and negotiating directly with governments looking to see their ships exit the waterway safely. The Iranian ambassador to France said Wednesday that Iran and Oman, which are on opposite sides of the Strait of Hormuz, are working toward a joint management system for the waterway that would include a permanent tolling regime.“Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner,” Iranian ambassador to France Mohammad Amin-Nejad said to Bloomberg on Wednesday.“This will entail costs, and it goes without saying that those who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share,” he said.

Oil Slumps After Conflicting Reports Over US-Iran Deal  - - Crude and product futures reversed course to settle lower Thursday as reports that the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz conflicted with statements by Tehran that it was not ready yet for a peace agreement. Market volatility was also amplified by post-expiry position shifts on NYMEX, as traders rebalanced portfolios in the newly prompt July crude contract ahead of Monday's Memorial Day holiday, triggering intraday swings across the energy complex. On the Middle East conflict, reports said Pakistani mediators had prepared a peace draft for Iran and the U.S. that will reinforce an existing ceasefire that lasted the past six weeks. The signing parties will agree not to target regional infrastructure and also guarantee freedom of navigation on the Hormuz and the wider Persian Gulf under a joint monitoring mechanism, the reports said. U.S. sanctions against Iran will be gradually lifted in return for Tehran's compliance to the deal, with negotiations on outstanding issues beginning seven days after the signing, the reports added. Energy markets tumbled on the news after rallying earlier on reports that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had refused to transfer the country's enriched uranium to a third country accepted by the U.S. But just after the settlement of NYMEX trade at 2:30 p.m. EDT, Iranian media reported the country's president and army chief as not in agreement yet with the Pakistani mediation effort. NYMEX WTI for July delivery settled the day down $1.91 at $96.35 bbl, dropping 2% to extend the previous session's 6% slide. ICE Brent for July delivery closed down $2.44 at $102.58 bbl, also deepening Wednesday's 6% retreat with a dip of 2%. Market participants said any further drop in crude prices would depend on Iran's permitting of vessels back on the Hormuz, a waterway it has blocked for most of the near three-month long war, crippling some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that account for a fifth of global daily supply. "Whatever happens, I see WTI holding at $85 and above in the distant future, and Brent at $90 and above," John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital, told DTN. Among refined products, NYMEX ULSD for June delivery fell $0.1155 to finish at $3.9471 gallon, while June RBOB futures edged lower by $0.1078 to end at $2.2796 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.171 points to 99.185 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Oil Market Ends Lower After Reversing Gains Amid Draft U.S. Iran Deal Reports -- The oil market ended the session lower on Thursday after reversing earlier gains amid reports of a draft U.S.-Iran deal. Early in the session, the market weighed the possibility of getting the U.S.-Iran peace talks on track against signals that Iran was hardening its stance on one of the main U.S. demands. In overnight trading, the market traded sideways amid reports that Pakistan stepped up its diplomatic efforts on Thursday to hasten the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest responses. On Wednesday, U.S. President Trump suggested he could wait a few days for “the right answers” from Tehran, while also noting the willingness to resume attacks on Iran. The crude market later in the morning traded higher and extended its gains to $4.40 as it posted a high of $102.66 after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. The market was well supported by concerns that the order could complicate talks on ending the war. However, the crude market later erased its gains and breached its earlier lows as it sold off to a low of $95.76 ahead of the close on prospects for a U.S.-Iran deal. The July WTI contract settled down $1.91 at $96.35 and the July Brent contract settled down $2.44 at $102.58. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the June heating oil contract settling down 11.55 cents at $3.8316 and the RB market settling down 10.78 cents at $3.3796. The head of the International Energy Agency said the start of peak summer fuel demand combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and depleting stocks could push the oil market into the “red zone” in July-August. He said the world entered the oil supply crisis caused by the Iran war with a surplus of oil, which helped to absorb the shock, but now stocks are eroding. He said it will take a lot of time to bring Middle East oil production and refining capacity back to pre-war levels and the recovery time will differ from country to country. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., global stockpiles of crude oil and products are being drawn down at a record pace as the Iran war drags on, curtailing supplies. It said inventories fell by 8.7 million bpd so far this month, almost double the average pace since the conflict began. Crude inventories in the U.S., including the SPR, fell by 17.8 million barrels last week. UBS raised its September oil price forecasts by $10/barrel on Thursday, projecting Brent crude at $105/barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $97/barrel. A Bloomberg Intelligence survey showed that oil market participants are increasingly seeing crude capped near $100/barrel over the next year as demand is forced to slow to counter the supply losses from the war. Sources stated that seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries will likely agree to a modest increase to their July output when they meet on June 7th. The monthly target set by seven core OPEC+ members is expected to be raised by about 188,000 bpd. All spoke on condition of anonymity and said a final decision had not been made. The seven of 21 OPEC+ members due to meet are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman.

Oil Prices Rise as Traders Grow Skeptical of U.S.-Iran Deal - Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Friday as skepticism grew that U.S.-Iran negotiations would produce a breakthrough, with all the major sticking points still unresolved despite claims of progress. At the time of writing, Brent futures were trading at $104.80, 2.13% higher on the day, while WTI futures climbed to $97.99, up 1.70%.The price spike comes after both benchmarks fell roughly 2% on Thursday to their lowest levels in nearly two weeks, as traders briefly priced in the possibility of diplomatic progress. It seems that sentiment has shifted overnight after conflicting signals emerged from negotiators. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that no agreement had been reached, but the two sides had narrowed some gaps. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “some good signs” in talks, but warned that any Iranian attempt to impose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable.Six weeks into the ceasefire, efforts to secure a lasting agreement have made little meaningful progress, with oil markets frequently reacting to claims from both sides before rebounding when nothing comes to fruition.Meanwhile, the ever-tightening state of physical markets has sparked major inflation fears globally, particularly as elevated fuel costs ripple through transportation and manufacturing sectors. Global oil inventories have been falling at a record pace, and countries around the world are implementing emergency measures to counter rising prices.Underscoring the market’s anxiety, ADNOC’s chief executive yesterday warned that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may not resume until at least the first or second quarter of 2027, even if hostilities were to end immediately. The UAE, having left OPEC, is now aggressively focused on increasing its export capacity beyond Hormuz with a new pipeline.In the short term, the only real solution for oil markets remains the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and markets will be nervously awaiting either a diplomatic breakthrough or a major military escalation.

Oil prices rise amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks - Pakistan Observer – The global oil prices rose on Friday but the market remained on course for a weekly decline as uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran continued to weigh on investor confidence. Brent crude futures climbed by $1.66, or 1.6 percent, to reach $104.24 per barrel during early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.11, or 1.2 percent, to trade at $97.46 per barrel. Despite the increase, both oil benchmarks were set to record weekly losses amid fluctuating market sentiment linked to developments in the US-Iran talks. Brent crude was down 4.6 percent for the week, while WTI had fallen 7.6 percent. Reports indicating some progress in diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran briefly supported the market. A senior Iranian official stated that differences between the two countries had narrowed, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to “positive signs” in the negotiations. However, key disagreements remain over Iran’s uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe oil prices are likely to stay elevated due to persistent supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said global oil fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly before 2027. The ongoing conflict has disrupted energy markets despite a fragile ceasefire that has remained in place for nearly six weeks. Rising fuel prices have also increased concerns about inflation and pressure on the global economy. Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, said WTI crude is expected to remain within the range of $90 to $110 per barrel next week, continuing the pattern seen since late March. Meanwhile, BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its average Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $90 per barrel from $81.50, citing supply shortages, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and the extended time required for market recovery after the conflict. Before the conflict, nearly 20 percent of global energy supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The war disrupted around 14 million barrels per day of oil supply, affecting exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. The head of ADNOC said full restoration of oil flows through the Strait may not occur before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ends immediately. In addition, sources said seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to support a modest increase in output during their meeting on June 7, although supplies from some producers remain affected by the Iran conflict.

Oil Up Anticipating Iran Hormuz Toll, Memorial Day Travel - -- Oil prices steadied after a three-day decline to settle slightly higher Friday as tensions swelled again in the Middle East from U.S. opposition to Iran's plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz. Record travel forecast across the United States for next week's Memorial Day holiday also boosted sentiment in futures trading of fuel. NYMEX WTI crude for July delivery settled up $0.25, or 0.3%, at $96.60 bbl, while ICE Brent for July finished higher by $0.96, or 1%, at $103.54 bbl. For the week, WTI fell 9% and Brent 5%, impacted by losses from Tuesday through Thursday when the market reacted to attempts by mediator Pakistan to secure a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and reopen Hormuz, blockaded by Tehran, to tankers carrying a fifth of world petroleum supply. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery advanced by $0.0562 to close at $3.8878 gallon. June RBOB climbed $0.0743 to end at $3.4539. Fuel prices rose as the AAA forecast that a record 45 million people in the United States will travel between Thursday, May 21, and the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, May 25. After rising with few stops between March and April, energy markets have reversed course this month as the U.S. attempts to end the war with Iran which it began at end-February and restore shipping on the Hormuz. Tehran plans a toll of $2 million on each oil tanker crossing the strait, creating a major negotiation sticking point despite claims from United States officials that talks show some positive signs. Iran and Oman reportedly held discussions Friday on enforcing the toll, ignoring warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump that the international waterway must remain free. Iran also opposes handing over its enriched uranium to the U.S. or any other country chosen by the Trump administration, defying another core condition set by the White House for a permanent truce. Negotiations toward a deal have also been held up by Iran's demands that the U.S. lift its blockade on Iranian ports in order for any talks to begin.

Oil Slick Reaches a Pristine Persian Gulf Island in Iran - The New York Times - An oil spill has reached the shores of a pristine Persian Gulf island in Iran surrounded by clear turquoise waters that provide refuge for endangered sea turtles and dolphins, according to videos circulating on social media.The tiny, uninhabited island of Shidvar is one of Iran’s most important protected nature reserves. It is home to large coral reefs and a breeding ground for more than 80,000 birds.The videos, verified by The New York Times, show large dark ribbons of oil snaking along the island’s pristine white sand beaches. Birds, turtles and crabs can be seen trapped inside mounds of tar.“It is known as the Maldives of Iran — a beautiful place,” said Kaveh Madani, director of the U.N. University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health.The videos have provided some of the first evidence of the environmental toll the war has taken on the area. Iran has been under an internet blackout since the United States and Israel started a war in late February, severely limiting visibility into the impacts of the conflict.In one of the videos, a small boat plies through waters darkened from an oil slick, as the men on board point to smoke billowing up from the oil refinery at the nearby island of Lavan.  The videos appear to have been taken not long after April 8, when Iranian state media said the Lavan refinery was struck, hours after a cease-fire had taken hold. It is unclear why the videos have emerged more than a month later, but it is likely because of the recent easing of restrictions on Iran’s nationwide internet blackout.The cause of devastation, Mr. Madani said, was likely the strikes on the Lavan refinery. “That video, I can say with a lot of certainty, is from the oil spill of Lavan, and we know the cause of that,” he added.Another oil slick has been spotted near Kharg Island, one of Iran’s most crucial oil export and storage sites. But the causes of it are less clear.Some U.S. officials accuse Iran of having dumped or mishandled oil in Persian Gulf waters. Iran has denied this, and Mr. Madani said there was no available evidence to support the dumping theory.The damage from oil spills to the Persian Gulf’s fragile ecosystem is still not known. But it could extend beyond animals, said Manoochehr Shirzaei, an Iranian environmental expert who teaches geophysics and remote sensing at Virginia Tech University.“Among the most immediate and widespread consequences could be impacts on desalination infrastructure, as many Gulf countries rely heavily on desalinated seawater for municipal and industrial water supply,” he said.“These facilities draw seawater directly from the Persian Gulf, making them highly vulnerable to oil contamination.”Mr. Shirzaei said he was able to detect several slicks off the waters of Shidvar and Lavan with satellite imagery. He also used satellite imagery from early May to detect the large oil slick reported close to Kharg Island, which could also have serious environmental consequences for the region.The oil spills come at a particularly critical time of year for the region’s delicate ecosystem, experts say. It is currently breeding season for many birds, who could struggle to find food for their young off Shidvar island, and may not have time to learn to adapt to the sudden change to their habitat.On Shidvar’s shores, thousands of turtle hatchlings should be emerging at this time from sands now covered in oil, which may make their first steps fatal.The impact of this damage could be compounded because the Persian Gulf is not an open ocean, but rather semi-enclosed, the experts said, and slower water circulation means oil slicks may linger. That intensifies the impact on humans and animals and allows the slicks to spread. “Once oil enters the Gulf, it does not remain inside the logic of war,” said Iman Ebrahimi, an Iranian conservationist who monitored the bird populations of Shidvar for four years.“It moves into beaches, nests, feathers, turtle hatchlings, fish nurseries and the bodies of animals that belong to the whole region.”

US Forces Board Iranian-Flagged Tanker in Gulf of Oman - US Central Command (CENTCOM) said US forces boarded an Iranian-flagged commercial oil ‌tanker, M/T Celestial Sea, in the Gulf of Oman on May 20, after it was “suspected of attempting to violate the US blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port.”Footage posted by CENTCOM shows US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit launching a helicopter from the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, and fast-roping down onto the M/T Celestial Sea.“American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course,” CENTCOM said in a brief statement posted online. “US forces continue to fully enforce the blockade and have now redirected 91 commercial ships to ensure compliance.”

Iran asserts jurisdiction over UAE and Oman waters in new Strait of Hormuz map - Iran has published a map claiming regulatory control over a stretch of the Strait of Hormuz that extends deep into the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates and Oman, prompting five Gulf states to formally warn shipping companies through the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) not to comply. In a post on X on Wednesday, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority defined its claimed management zone as running from Kuh-e Mobarak in Iran to the south of Fujairah in the UAE at the strait's eastern entrance, and from the end of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm al-Quwain in the UAE at its western entrance. The zone covers waters that the UAE and Oman regard as their own sovereign territory. All vessels transiting the defined area are required to obtain prior authorisation from the PGSA. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent a joint letter to the IMO this week, warning commercial and merchant vessels not to engage with the PGSA or transit the waterway using Iran's designated route. The letter was distributed by the IMO. Earlier in May, Iran had established an email-based application process for vessels seeking to transit the strait through the PGSA. The authority was said to have become operational on Monday. The crucial waterway has been largely blocked since the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, first by Tehran, and then by a US blockade of Iranian ports and ships declared by President Donald Trump. So far, the only operators paying PGSA tolls are predominantly Chinese-linked shadow fleet vessels. No Western-flagged operator has publicly acknowledged making a payment, partly because doing so could expose companies to US sanctions. The Washington-based think-tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Iranian officials remained divided over nuclear concessions but had united around formalising control of the strait. "Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate that Iranian officials believe they won the war because formalising Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is a territorial claim on the sovereign territory of another country," the ISW said in an assessment on Friday. The institute noted that a new map published on Wednesday appeared to extend Iran's claimed management zone beyond the boundaries it had outlined on 4 May, suggesting a deliberate step-by-step expansion of its territorial claims. "The new PGSA-defined zone runs from Kuh Mobarak in Iran to southern Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the east and from the end of Gheshm Island in Iran to Umm al Qaiwain in the UAE in the west," the ISW explained. "This change lays explicit claim to control over the territorial waters of the UAE and Oman," it concluded. The UAE port of Fujairah sits at the seaward end of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's West-East pipeline, which was built specifically to allow oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

IRGC Navy coordinates safe passage of another 35 ships through Strait of Hormuz -The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced that it coordinated the transit of another 35 ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. “Over the past 24 hours, 35 ships, including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels, passed through the Strait of Hormuz, after obtaining permission, [and] with the coordination and security protection of the IRGC Navy,” the Public Relations Office of the IRGC’s Navy said in a statement on Friday. The passage came on top of 31 vessels—including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships—that passed through the strait in the previous 24 hours, the IRGC Navy announced on Thursday. The Iranian authority controlling the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf has defined the supervisory management zone of the waterway, announcing on Wednesday that movement through the strategic corridor requires coordination and a permit. The zone is "the line connecting Mount Mubarak in Iran and southern Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, on the eastern side of the strait, extending to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm Al Quwain in the United Arab Emirates, on the western side of the strait." Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz to its enemies and their allies following the latest US-Israeli aggression against the country. According to a new Reuters report, the IRGC plays a central role in a new multi-layered transit system that gives preference to ships linked to allies such as China and Russia, while other vessels may require government-to-government arrangements or payments to pass. The IRGC reviews an affiliation document supplied by a ship owner or operator and during the process they may want to physically inspect the ship, the news agency said. "The affiliation check is to identify if the vessel has any connection to the US or Israel," a European shipping source told Reuters. The IRGC requires ship owners to disclose details including the value of the ship's cargo, the flag, its origin and destination, the registered owner and manager, and nationalities of the crew, according to documents sent to shipping industry sources by Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The vetting is carried out by Iranian state institutions including the Ports and Maritime Organization, the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, the national shipping organization, and the security overseer of the Supreme National Security Council, according to the report. Ship owners' willingness to deal directly with Iran shows the degree to which the strait is under the Islamic Republic's control, Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer who specializes in Iran research and analysis, told Reuters. "The straits will be blocked or opened up only by the approval of the Iranian government," said Citrinowicz. "Some will get through because of political alliances, others will have to pay, others will be turned back. This is the new norm." Bilateral arrangements for passage include an additional step: Countries contact Iran's foreign minister to request permission. The minister forwards these to the Supreme National Security Council. A decision is then made and communicated to the relevant bodies, including the IRGC which then provides the coordinates and instructions needed for safe passage. Other countries have worked out different arrangements. Among them is India, which imports about 90% of its oil needs and about 50% of its gas, much of which passes through Hormuz. New Delhi uses its embassy in Tehran to liaise with Iranian authorities, including the IRGC and the Iranian navy, which vets ships India wants to sail out of the Persian Gulf, according to an Indian shipping ministry official cited by Reuters. "The Indian navy also told us that if the Iranians ask you to stop, then you should stop. If they ask you to move, you should move," the report said, "And we've been following those instructions."

Satellite images reveal extent of damage to Israeli military bases in Irans strikes Newly analyzed satellite imagery has exposed damage to multiple Israeli military installations from Iran and Hezbollah's defensive operations, raising questions about the extent of destruction that Tel Aviv may be concealing from public view. Analysis of satellite images published by Soar shows strikes on several military bases across the occupied territories during Iran’s recent defensive strikes, codenamed Operation True Promise 4, that came in response to the US-Israeli aggression starting on February 28. The unprovoked aggression began with airstrikes assassinating senior Iranian officials, including Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and targeting civilian infrastructure. Iran responded by launching devastating strikes against US and Israeli bases and assets across the region. The report by Yedioth Ahronoth, released Friday with military censor approval, has used low-quality images, casting further doubt on the regime's transparency about the actual scale of damage sustained. Images from the Sentinel-2 satellite reveal that Ramat David Air Base was hit in two separate areas. According to the analysis, one damaged zone apparently housed support vehicles and equipment, while the second served as a refueling and service point for fighter jets—critical infrastructure for Israel's air operations. The imagery also points to a sudden change near a structure inside the Mishar base, a Unit 8200 signals intelligence facility near Safed. Soar's analysis indicates a possible strike on the base between March 5 and March 10. Additional satellite images show damage to a position at Nevatim Air Base, clearly visible on March 25. The base has been a key target in Iran's response to the US-Israeli aggression. Furthermore, images reveal a major fire at Camp Shimshon beginning March 10, the same day Hezbollah announced it attacked the site with a swarm of drones. According to the analysis, the fire burned for several days and spread across approximately 200 meters inside the base. Comparisons with older high-resolution images from 2016, 2024, and 2025 showed the damaged area had consistently been used for operational purposes, including military vehicle placement and logistical preparations. The analysis noted that past images showed no significant vegetation in the area, "indicating that the fire was caused by a strike on a significant area inside the base rather than by burning vegetation."

Alberta: Oil-rich province to vote on whether to separate from Canada -Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has announced plans for the oil-rich province to hold a non-binding vote in the fall on whether its residents wish to remain a part of Canada — or move ahead with a second binding vote on separation.The move marks the first time in Canadian history that a province other than Quebec has put the question of separation to the public and comes after months of campaigning from a group of separatists. Speaking during a televised address on Thursday evening, Alberta’s Smith said she supports the province remaining in Canada and would vote as such in a provincial referendum.“However, despite my personal support for remaining in Canada, I’m deeply troubled by an erroneous court decision that interferes with the democratic rights of hundreds of thousands of Albertans,” Smith said.An Alberta judge had previously thrown out a petition seeking for the province to separate from Canada.Backers of the citizen-led group Stay Free Alberta said that they’d collected more than 301,000 signatures in support of their campaign, which is partly driven by the view that the province has long been overlooked by decision-makers in Ottawa.Opinion polls indicate that separatism in Alberta lacks broad appeal, however. A separate petition calling for the province to stay in Canada says it has gathered more than 404,000 signatures.“Kicking the can down the road only prolongs a very emotional and important debate, and muzzling the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans wanting to be heard is unjustifiable in a free and democratic society,” Smith said.“It’s time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on,” she added.The provincial vote, which is scheduled to take place on Oct. 19, will put the following question to Albertans: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”Alberta is Canada’s fourth most-populous province, with an estimated population of around 5 million people.The province is well-known for its oil sands, which contribute significantly to Alberta and Canada’s economy.Alberta’s oil sands’ proven reserves are equal to approximately 158.9 billion barrels of oil, which means the province has the fourth-largest such reserves in the world, after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Israel's Ben Gvir Sparks Outrage With Gaza Flotilla Activist Abuse Video - --Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir on Wednesday sparked global outrage by posting a video showing the mockery and abuse of activists who were abducted by Israeli forces while attempting to bring aid to the besieged Gaza Strip via boat as part of the Global Sumud Flotilla. The video, posted on X, shows Ben Gvir taunting the activists as they’re detained with their hands tied behind their backs and on their knees facing the floor. At one point in the video, the Israeli national anthem can be heard playing while activists are detained face down on what appears to be an Israeli vessel.Several nations responded by summoning Israeli ambassadors to their capitals, including Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Canada, Al Jazeera reported. “The images of the Israeli minister Ben Gvir are unacceptable. It is inadmissible that these demonstrators, including many Italian citizens, are subjected to this treatment that violates human dignity,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a post on X. “The Italian Government is immediately taking, at the highest institutional levels, all necessary steps to secure the immediate release of the Italian citizens involved,” Meloni wrote, adding that Rome demanded an apology from Israel and would summon the Israeli ambassador to Italy.Jean-Noel Barrot, the foreign minister of France, said on X that the French government didn’t support the flotilla but that the French activists involved “must be treated with respect and released as quickly as possible” and that Paris was summoning the Israeli ambassador to “express our indignation and obtain explanations.”Ben Gvir’s video went too far even for some members of the Israeli government, including Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who said that Ben Gvir “knowingly caused harm to our State in this disgraceful display.”According to the Global Sumud Flotilla, 50 boats have been recently intercepted by Israeli forces, and 428 activists from all over the world have been taken captive in Israel. Ahead of Wednesday’s incident, the US sanctioned four activists involved in the Global Sumud Flotilla. The US has not taken any action or imposed any consequences on Israel for continuing attacks on Gaza, maintaining restrictions on aid, and taking additional territory in the Strip, all violations of the President Trump-backed ceasefire deal signed in October 2025.

Israeli Attacks in Gaza Have Killed More Than 880 Palestinians Since So-Called Ceasefire Deal Was Signed - Israeli attacks in Gaza have killed more than 880 Palestinians since the so-called ceasefire deal was supposed to go into effect in October 2025, according to numbers released by Gaza’s Health Ministry. The Health Ministry said in its daily update, which it releases about midday Gaza time, that it recorded the killing of at least one Palestinian and the injury of 16 over the previous 24-hour period.The ministry said that since the ceasefire deal was signed, 881 Palestinians have been killed and 2,621 have been wounded, a total of more than 3,500 Palestinian casualties. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and in the streets, as ambulance and civil defense crews have been unable to reach them so far,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Israeli attacks continued on Wednesday, with the Palestinian news agency WAFA reporting that at least seven Palestinians, including three children, were wounded by Israeli shelling across the Strip overnight. Israel has also violated the ceasefire deal by taking more territory in Gaza, as the IDF now occupies 60% of the Strip, up from the 53% it controlled at the start of the so-called truce, and continuing aid restrictions. While the US and Israel are accusing Hamas of violating the deal by not disarming, the actual agreement Hamas and Israel signed only established a ceasefire and a mechanism for the release of Israeli hostages and the recovery of Israeli bodies buried under the rubble. Issues like Hamas’s disarmament and a full Israeli withdrawal were meant to be dealt with in follow-up negotiations, which have been stalled.

Netanyahu Admits Israel Is Taking More Territory in Gaza in Violation of Ceasefire Deal - -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has admitted at a cabinet meeting that Israel has taken more territory in Gaza since the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect in October 2025, an acknowledgment of an Israeli violation of the truce deal.When the deal was signed in October 2025, Israeli troops pulled back to an agreed-upon line, known as the “yellow line,” which left about 53% of Gaza under IDF occupation, but that area of control has expanded. “In Gaza now, we already control not 50%, but 60%,” he said, according to The Times of Israel, confirming reports that said Israel now controls 60% of the Palestinian territory. The ceasefire deal that Israel and Hamas signed in October 2025 said that the “IDF will not return to areas that have been withdrawn from, as long as Hamas fully implements the agreement,” and Hamas had fulfilled its side of the deal by releasing all living Israeli hostages and bodies that it had and working to recover other Israeli remains.Israeli officials have claimed Hamas is violating the deal by not disarming, but the agreement didn’t commit Hamas to giving up its weapons. The two sides agreed to a US proposal that called for the “demilitarization” of Gaza as a framework for negotiations, but the issue of disarmament was meant to be worked out in follow-up negotiations.For its part, Hamas has maintained that disarmament must be linked to a path toward a Palestinian state and has also stated that it won’t discuss the issue until the first phase of the ceasefire is actually implemented. Israel has constantly violated the agreement by launching daily attacks in Gaza, killing more than 870 Palestinians since it was supposed to go into effect, and it has also not consistently allowed the agreed-upon number of aid trucks to enter the besieged territory.Despite the constant Israeli violations, the so-called “Board of Peace,” a US-led body meant to oversee the implementation of the agreement, has put the blame on Hamas’s unwillingness to disarm for the lack of progress in implementing President Trump’s plan for the Palestinian territroy.

In Response To ICC Arrest Warrant, Israel's Smotrich Orders the Destruction of a Palestinian Village - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday ordered the destruction of a Palestinian Bedouin village in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, a move that he said was a response to the International Criminal Court (ICC) seeking an arrest warrant for him.Middle East Eye first reported on Monday that the office of the prosecutor at the ICC had filed an arrest warrant for Smotrich, who also holds a position in the Israeli Defense Ministry that gives him the power to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which are illegal under international law.According to MEE, the charges against Smotrich include forced displacement as a crime against humanity and a war crime, the transfer of Israel’s own population as a war crime, and persecution and apartheid as crimes against humanity.. The Israeli minister said on Monday that the warrant is a “declaration of war” and accused the court of being “antisemitic.” In 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. It also issued warrants for three Hamas leaders, but they have all been killed by the IDF. “As a sovereign and independent state, we will not accept hypocritical dictates from biased bodies that regularly stand against the State of Israel, against our biblical, historical, and legal rights in our homeland, and against our right and duty to self-defense and security,” Smotrich said at a press conference. According to The Times of Israel, the Israeli minister announced that he was ordering the demolition of the Khan al-Ahmar, a Bedouin village east of Jerusalem in the West Bank that’s home to about 150 Palestinians. Israel has been looking to destroy the village for years, but has held off as several international bodies have said that it would be a violation of international law. Smotrich has said repeatedly that the idea of his settlement expansions in the West Bank is to “kill a Palestinian state” and has also been explicit in his desire for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements there.

Israeli Troops Advance into Southwest Syria to ‘Investigate Shepherds’  - Israeli forces continue to operate militarily in southwestern Syria, though exactly what they are attempting to accomplish is increasingly uncertain, with raids into Quneitra and Daraa Governorates involving ill-defined investigations of random homes or people.The weekend operation was near the town of Jamleh, and saw Israeli troops enter Syria to capture a group of shepherds as part of an ongoing investigation related to their shepherding. They were later released without incident.Another operation was reported further north in Quneitra this weekend, with IDF military vehicles entering the village of Ayn al-Baida and conducting a “surprise raid” on a civilian home. Here again, it’s not clear what if anything was accomplished.  Yesterday, Israeli troops also reportedly raided the village Saida al-Hanout, searching several homes. No arrests were made there. Syrian state media was critical of these operations as a violation of 1974 agreements, though the Israeli government was largely mum on them.Over the past week, Amnesty International issued a statement calling for a war crimes investigation related to the Israeli invasion of Syria and the destruction of civilian homes “with absolutely no military necessity.” They said Israel has an obligation to make reparations to civilians who lost their homes in this way.

Israeli Soldiers Detail Ongoing Looting in Southern Lebanon - With the “ceasefire” in Lebanon that Israel continues to violate, having been extended another 45 days last week, Israeli commanders are finding themselves increasingly unclear about why exactly they’re still in Lebanon, whether the ceasefire is meant to be complied with or designed to fail, and indeed what purpose the further presence is meant to serve. The commanders see Israel as in something of a “tangle,” where the US is opposing them advancing any further, but their policy is to remain in southern Lebanon, destroying villages and clashing with Hezbollah fighters. This adds to the controversy surrounding an ongoing series of reports from Haaretz in which Israeli soldiers report that the primary thing they’re actually doing inside Lebanon is looting and destroying Lebanese villages.  The soldiers said they view looting as an unofficial but “primary” mission of the ongoing occupation of southern Lebanon. Haaretz has repeatedly reported on the ongoing problem of troops bringing loot back across the border, saying Israeli military leadership is not holding looters to account, and citing troops who say they assumed it was acceptable behavior.  One reservist described the systematic taking of goods out of Lebanese villages and bringing them back to the Israeli outpost “so they’d be waiting for the soldiers when they went home.” Haaretz ran a similar report last month describing the widespread looting of Lebanese territory. Since Israel invaded southern Lebanon in early March, the Lebanese Health Ministry has reported some 3,089 people who have been killed in the war, and 9,397 others wounded. This includes hundreds of both women and children.