US oil prices finished higher for the sixth time in seven weeks after the Yemeni Houthis joined Iran in the war against Israel and the US, and after Trump dropped his peacenik mask and threatened to bomb Iran back to the stone age….after rising 1.4% to a 42 month high of $98.23 a barrel last week after oil traders realized that all the peace plans Trump had been floating were nothing more than attempts to manipulate oil prices from the White House, and had nothing to do with ending the war in the Middle East, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery surged across global markets on Monday, following attacks by Yemeni Houthis on Israel over the weekend, expanding the ongoing war in the Middle East started by the US and Israel, and continued to edge higher Monday morning in New York after U.S. President Trump threatened to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal were not reached to end the Middle East conflict soon, and settled $3.24 higher at $102.88 per barrel, the first close above $100 since 2022, as the conflict was no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but extended into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, and as more U.S. troops arrived in the region…oil prices surged in early Asian trading Tuesday after U.S. President Trump threatened to destroy the key Iranian export terminal on the island of Kharg, then surged further on global markets after an Iranian drone strike hit the fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker Al Salmi near Dubai, sparking a fire on board, but gave up its gains during New York trading following a report by The Wall Street Journal stating that President Trump told aides he was willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut in, leaving its reopening for a later date, and settled $1.50 lower at $101.38 a barrel following unconfirmed media reports that Iran's president said the country was ready to end the war, assuming some guarantees were put into place….oil prices climbed nearly 2% in early Asian trading on Wednesday, supported by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, even as optimism grew that the ongoing US-Iran war might soon come to an end following recent remarks from US President Donald Trump, but turned volatile and started slipping after reports suggested the US might be open to easing its military stance in the Iran conflict, and then swung violently around the $100 mark on Wednesday in London and New York trading, after Donald Trump said US forces could leave Iran 'in two or three weeks' even as the vital Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut to tanker traffic, and dipped further after the EIA reported a sizable US crude inventory build, and settled $1.26 lower at $100.12 a barrel after Trump told Reuters that the U.S. had ensured that Iran will not have nuclear arms and is ready to get out of the war "pretty quickly"….however, oil prices began to rise that evening after Trump delivered a bombastic, inflammatory speech to the nation, vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard over the next 2-3 weeks", and threatened to send them back to the stone ages”, then soared around 5% in early Asian trading on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation retriggered worries about heightened conflict in the Middle East, and were up by more than $10 by the time the markets opened in New York, with US oil prices higher than the global benchmark for the first time since 2022, and held on to those gains to settle $11.42 higher at a 45 month high of $111.54 a barrel, and up 13.5% for the week, as traders feared a prolonged war in the Middle East that would block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks…
Meanwhile, US natural gas prices finished lower for the eighth time in nine weeks, as mild weather forecasts suggested little need for either heating or cooling….after falling 1.3% to $3.025 per mmBTU last week even as the price of April gas finished unchanged at $3.095 per mmBTU, as strong LNG demand offset forecasts for milder weather in the weeks ahead, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery opened 12.6 cents lower on Monday, knocked down over the weekend by weak domestic fundamentals, steady production and mild temperatures, and traded largely sideways into the afternoon to settle 13.8 cents lower at $2.887 per mmBTU as high inventory levels and the transition into the "shoulder season" outweighed support from energy market volatility related to the conflict in Iran…natural gas prices opened 5.8 cents higher on Tuesday, but tracked lower from there, as traders looked beyond Iran war risks and further fixated on bearish Lower 48 supply/demand dynamics. and settled 0.3 cents lower at $2.884 per mmBTU, attempting to come back after a sharp sell-off, as weak fundamentals continued to cap the upside…natural gas prices were 3.6 cents lower to start Wednesday’s trading, as the market focused on domestic fundamentals, waning cold weather and steady production, and ended the session 6.5 cents lower at $2.819 per mmBTU, as mild temperatures reduced heating and power generation needs, while increased drilling activity, particularly in the Haynesville Shale, raised concerns about future supply surpluses….U.S. natural gas futures were little changed in early Thursday trading, even as oil and LNG prices soared in response to tough talk from President Trump toward Iran, and remained lethargic after the report of a seasonally strong storage injection widened surpluses versus historical norms, and settled 1.9 cents lower at $2.800 per mmBTU, as a widely anticipated storage injection for the week ended March 27 did little to move May natural gas futures, as traders had already priced in a loosening supply/demand balance, which left the May contract price down 7.4% for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending March 27th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 36 billion cubic feet to 1,865 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 96 billion cubic feet, or 5.4% above the 1,769 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on March 27th of last year, and 54 billion cubic feet, or 3.0% above the five-year average of 1,811 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 27th of March over the most recent five years….the 36 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage for the cited week was close to the 39 billion cubic foot injection into storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, while it was a bit more than the 30 billion cubic foot of gas that were injected into natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2025, and was in contrast to the average 4 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late March week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 27th indicated that after a decrease in our refinery throughput more than offset an increase in our oil exports, we again had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 6th consecutive week and for 24th time in forty-four weeks, even as oil supplies that the EIA could not account for were not a factor….Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 10,000 barrels per day to 6,454,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 730,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 199,000 barrels per day to 3,521,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,933,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 27th, an average of 209,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 1,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 548,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,657,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,138,000 barrels per day during the March 27th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,379,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 27th, an average of 220,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 725,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending March 27th averaged a rounded 35,000 more barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -35,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since 240,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was 275,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, and therefore not very useful.... But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it).
This week’s rounded 725,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories all came as an average of 779,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 54,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first SPR withdrawal in a year and a half, following a nearly continuous string of weekly additions to the SPR from September 2023 to February 2026, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,633,000 barrels per day last week, which was 12.8% more than the 5,879,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,678,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 8,000 barrels per day lower at 13,234,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 8,000 barrels per day higher at 423,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.3% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 92.1% of their capacity while processing those 16,379,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 27th, down from 92.9% the prior week, with the recent vacillation in the refinery utilization rate likely due to temporary shutdowns for seasonal maintenance, as refineries are reconfigured to produce summer blends of fuel….the 16,379,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week was still 5.3% more than the 15,558,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending March 28th of 2025, and 3.3% more than the 15,849,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 29th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.4%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal utilization rate for this time of year…
With the decrease in the amount of oil that was refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 152,000 barrels per day to 9,583,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 27th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 309,000 barrels per day during the prior week... This week’s gasoline production was still 5.6% more than the 9,222,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending March 28th of last year, and 3.2% more than the gasoline production of 9,284,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending March 29th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) was unchanged at 5,026,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 163,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 7.5% more than the 4,677,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 28th of 2025, and 2.1% more than the 4,925,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending March 29th, 2019....
After this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the seventh week in a row, decreasing by 586,000 barrels to 240,861,000 barrels during the week ending March 27th, coming after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,593,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 238,000 barrels per day to 8,686,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline rose by 59,000 barrels per day to 502,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 41,000 barrels per day to 829,000 barrels per day … In spite of thirty-eight gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-nine weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.4% higher than last March 28th’s gasoline inventories of 237,577,000 barrels, and about 4% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of year…
Meanwhile, after this week’s distillates production was unchanged, our supplies of distillate fell for the seventh time in twenty weeks, decreasing by 2,111,000 barrels to 119,936,000 barrels during the week ending March 27th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 3,032,000 barrels during the prior week… Our distillates supplies fell this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 471,000 barrels to 471,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 226,000 barrels per day to 1,406,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 38,000 barrels per day to 175,000 barrels per day... After 22 additions to distillates inventories over the past 38 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.8% higher than the 114,626,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 28th of 2025, but still about 3% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after little change in our supply and demand, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 16th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 30th time over the past year, increasing by 5,451,000 barrels over the week, from 456,185,000 barrels on March 20th to a thirty-three month high of 461,636,000 barrels on March 27th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 6,926,000 barrels over the prior week….After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 1% above the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and were about 37% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have generally leveled off since, and as of this March 27th were 5.0% more than the 439,792,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 28th of 2025, and were 2.3% more than the 451,417,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March 29th of 2024, but were 2.5% less than the 473,691,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on March 24th of 2023…
This Week's Rig Count
The US rig count was up by 5 over the six days ending April 2nd, with the report published a day early to take a holiday on Friday, as the number of rigs targeting oil was up by two, the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by three, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 2nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (March 27th) and this week’s (April 2nd) count, the third column shows last week’s March 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday of the same week of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 4th of April, 2025…
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More than 8500 acres of Ohio's public land approved for fracking - More than 8,000 acres at Egypt Valley Wildlife Area and more than 500 acres at Salt Fork State Park were approved to be fracked during Friday’s Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission meeting, which lasted less than 20 minutes. Four different bid selections were approved for parts of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County — 3,846 acres, 2,792 acres, 849 acres, and 746 acres. One bid selection was approved for 513 acres in Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. The leases will be put out to bid next calendar quarter. Advocates for protecting Ohio’s public lands from exploitation and degradation slammed the approvals. “The poisonous fruits of fracking will now grow in everyone’s backyard,” Save Ohio Parks said in a statement. Several people booed and shouted in opposition when the commissions voted to approve the bids. “We do consider all of the factors required by the statute and public comments are certainly one of them,” commission Chair Theresa White said when asked how much public comments are taken into consideration. Fracking is the process of injecting liquid into the ground at a high pressure to extract oil or gas. Texas-based EOG Resources Incorporated was chosen to frack about 3.6 acres in Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County and less than an acre of the possible right-of-way along Ohio State Route 151 in Harrison County. EOG Resources was the only bidder for both. The commission is required to pick the “highest and best bid” per Ohio law. The lease bonus is $12,754 for Valley Run Wildlife Area and includes a 12.5% royalty, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The lease bonus is $2,446.50 for the land in Harrison County and includes a 12.5% royalty, according to ODNR. Less than an acre of land in the right-of-way along Ohio State Route 513 in Guernsey County was also approved for fracking. People opposed to fracking protest in front of the Ohio Department of Public Safety building before a Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission meeting. (Photo by Megan Henry, Ohio Capital Journal). A bid selection containing 18.71 acres of the possible right-of-way along Ohio State Route 513 in Guernsey County was denied. “Part of the nomination had parcels that included federal highways, and based on the coordination between the Ohio Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration, part of their requirements are that the federal government must give permission in writing and give that express written consent,” White said. ODOT did not get federal approval, so White said the commission did not think they had the authority to move forward with leasing the land. There were approximately 2,000 incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio from 2015-2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. There’s evidence that shows increased exposure to fracking impacts health, in particular children’s health, including low birth weight, preterm births, congenital anomalies, and asthma, according to Yale School of Medicine.. “There will be more early childhood cancers and respiratory illnesses from increased natural gas methane emissions,” Save Ohio Parks said in a statement. “Our freshwater lakes, rivers and creeks, even groundwater and soils will be even more depleted and contaminated from toxic, radioactive gas and oil wastewater brine.” Before Friday’s meeting, about 20 people gathered outside the Ohio Department of Public Safety building to protest fracking. “Parks weren’t meant to be silent and vacant industrial zones,” said Mary Huck, board member of Save Ohio Parks. “Without the connection with nature our wild spaces give, we become less human. … Mental health suffers in a society without natural green spaces, as does physical health and safety of living in peace.”
Ohio OKs Fracking Under 8,236 Acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area - Marcellus Drilling News -The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) voted on Friday to open more than 8,700 acres of public land, including an additional 513 acres under Salt Fork State Park and 8,236 acres under Egypt Valley Wildlife Area, for shale fracking. This move makes Egypt Valley the largest fracking project *under* (not on) state-owned land, despite vociferous public opposition from citizens and left-wing environmentalists. The next step in the process is to put the parcels out for bid.
Belmont County Injection Well Owner Case Against ODNR Dismissed - Marcellus Drilling News -- In a March 25, 2026, decision in the Omni Energy Group, LLC v. Ohio Department of Natural Resources court case, Judge Algenon L. Marbley from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio dismissed Omni’s amended complaint regarding Class II injection well permits. Omni alleged that the ODNR unlawfully set injection pressures too low, rendering its multimillion-dollar investment in two injection wells inoperable. This case goes back to events that began in 2019, events we previously covered in a 2024 post (see OH Injection Well Owner Wins Case Against ODNR, Potential Restart). Read that post for important background.
UAE Investment Firm Buys U.S. Midstream Gas Assets for $2.25 Billion - 2PointZero, an Abu Dhabi-based investment company focused on energy infrastructure, has signed a deal to buy 100% in U.S. firm Traverse Midstream Partners, owner of minority stakes in natural gas pipelines, for $2.25 billion.2PointZero, led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi, entered in the deal through its subsidiary E Point Zero Holding RSC LTD, 2PointZero said in a statement to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.The agreement – subject to regulatory clearance – is yet another investment from the Middle East in U.S. energy assets as companies from the Arab Gulf continue their deal-making abroad even amid the war. Traverse Midstream Partners, a portfolio company of The Energy & Minerals Group, holds a portfolio of high quality non-operated midstream assets, including strategic minority stakes in the Rover Pipeline LLC and Ohio River System LLC. Rover Pipeline is a large scale, interstate natural gas pipeline that provides critical takeaway capacity from the Utica and Marcellus shale basins to key demand markets in the Upper Midwest, U.S. Gulf Coast, and Eastern Canada.Ohio River System, for its part, is a recently constructed, dry natural gas header system strategically positioned to gather natural gas production from core Utica and the emerging Ohio Marcellus production areas. ORS plays a key role in enhancing regional connectivity and system flexibility across key energy corridors.Last year, the United Arab Emirates pledged a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the United States.In the energy sector, Abu Dhabi’s national oil and gas company ADNOC has moved some of its natural gas and green energy assets in the United States into its newly-created energy investment arm, XRG.Saudi Arabia is also investing in U.S. energy. At the end of 2025, Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest crude exporter and the largest oil company by production and market capitalization, announced 17 new agreements and memoranda of understanding with American companies worth more than $30 billion, including in LNG, supply-chain procurement, advanced materials, and financial services.
Abu Dhabi's ePointZero buys US gas assets in $2.25 billion deal - Gulf News - Dubai; Abu Dhabi-based ePointZero is moving to deepen its presence in global energy infrastructure with a $2.25 billion acquisition of US-based Traverse Midstream Partners.The deal gives the company full ownership of a portfolio tied to some of the most critical natural gas corridors in North America, strengthening its position in assets that underpin power generation, industrial demand and exports.m ePointZero, a subsidiary of Two Point Zero Group, is positioning the acquisition within a broader strategy focused on energy systems that support electrification, digital demand and long-term supply resilience. The transaction provides exposure to major midstream infrastructure, including stakes in Rover Pipeline and Ohio River System. Rover is one of the largest interstate natural gas pipelines in the US, linking production from the Utica and Marcellus shale regions to demand centres across the Midwest, Gulf Coast and Eastern Canada. Its scale and connectivity make it a key route for moving gas from production hubs to consumption and export markets.The Ohio River System complements this network by gathering gas from core production areas and improving flow flexibility across the region, helping balance supply and demand across multiple corridors.The acquisition reflects a broader push by Gulf investors into energy infrastructure that generates stable, long-term returns.Midstream assets such as pipelines tend to benefit from consistent demand and contracted revenues, even during periods of price volatility, making them attractive for investors seeking predictable cash flows.ePointZero said its investment focus remains tied to infrastructure that powers modern economies, including systems that support industrial growth and digital expansion.Natural gas continues to play a central role in global energy markets, particularly in balancing renewable energy systems and supporting industrial activity.By securing access to established pipeline networks, ePointZero gains a foothold in supply chains that connect production to end users across major markets.The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals, with completion expected once the required procedures are finalised.
UAE Buying Minority Stake in Rover Pipeline, Ohio River System - - Marcellus Drilling News - The Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) investment group 2PointZero, via its subsidiary ePointZero, has agreed to acquire U.S. natural gas infrastructure firm Traverse Midstream Partners for $2.25 billion. This acquisition includes stakes in the Rover Pipeline and Ohio River System, which connect the productive Utica/Marcellus shale region to major demand centers and export hubs. Despite escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and global energy disruptions, the deal underscores the UAE’s commitment to commercial partnerships with the United States.
19 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 23 – 29 - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received a combined 19 new drilling permits last week, Mar. 23 – 29, up 8 from the 11 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 4 of the permits. Ohio issued no new permits. And, West Virginia issued 15 new permits last week. The drillers who received new permits last week included EQT, Expand Energy, and Range Resources.Bradford County | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Range Resources Corp | Washington County | Wetzel County
PA Loses 2 Rigs from Marcellus, Combined M-U Lowest Since Nov. 2025 - Marcellus Drilling News - Last week was not a good week for the national rig count nor the count in the Marcellus/Utica. The national count dropped by 9 rigs to 543, while Pennsylvania lost 2 rigs and now operates 18, a level it hasn’t seen since January of this year. Both Ohio and West Virginia maintained the same counts last week at 11 and 8, respectively. The combined M-U count was 37 rigs last week, the lowest number since the Nov. 18, 2025, rig count report. Yuck.
PA DEP Fines Eureka Resources $100K for Wastewater Violations -- Marcellus Drilling News - The ongoing saga of Eureka Resources’ now-closed frack wastewater treatment facilities in Pennsylvania — two in Lycoming County and one in Bradford County — continues to unfold. The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) recently assessed two fines against Eureka for violations of cleanup deadlines at two of its facilities. One facility in Lycoming County was fined, and one in Bradford County. The fines were $60,000 and $40,000. We’re just not sure which facility got which fine! [UPDATE: We now know that the Williamsport facility was fined $60,000 and the Bradford County facility was fined $40,000. See the update below.] One thing we do know: Eureka was fined a total of $100,000.
Bill introduced to update oil, gas conservation laws - Pennsylvania Business Report - A bill is set to be introduced by Pennsylvania Sen. Gene Yaw. (R-Lycoming) that would update the state’s oil and gas conservation law to match current drilling practices.The bill will also speed up permit reviews for wells in Utica, Yaw said. The chair of the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy Committee, Yaw said the measure would ensure wells are treated the same across the state.“The techniques used to develop Marcellus and Utica shale are the same and it makes no sense for our laws to treat them differently,” Yaw said. “Modernizing this statute will reduce waste, protect resources and ensure Pennsylvania can continue to responsibly develop natural gas, a critical asset that supports jobs, generates revenue and strengthens our energy sector.”Yaw’s office said the legislation would update laws passed in 1961 before modernized drilling. By bringing the law up to date, he said, the bill would reduce delays in permit reviews, improve well placement and limit unnecessary surface impacts. Curren rules do not reflect how wells are drilled today, he said, and applying old standards to new wells can lead to natural gas being left in the ground. That would undermine the original legislation’s intent to prevent waste.Because many Utica wells are on land managed by the Pennsylvania Game Commission and the PA Department of Conservation and Natural Resource, the outdated rules can mean billions in lost revenue for the state that would otherwise support conservation work.Because Utica wells tap into Utica shale – rock formation that lies beneath the Marcellus Shale – well operators are able to use horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques which allow them to access large reserves of natural gas that would otherwise be unreachable.
SWPA Congresswoman Summer Lee Launches “O&G is Racist” Caucus - Marcellus Drilling News --- Southwestern Pennsylvania voters chose poorly when they elected a Communist radical as their representative to the U.S. Congress: Democrat Summer Lee. She and two other far far far far far left radicals, Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (Democrat from Michigan), and Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva (Democrat from Arizona), together just launched what they euphemistically call the People’s Environmental Justice Caucus in Congress. A better name is the “oil and gas is racist” caucus, an attempt to smear the oil and gas industry with the label of racism, claiming that O&G projects only get built in communities of color or where the residents are poor—people who (says Lee & co.) can’t fight back against the industry.
Stalled W. Kentucky Pipeline Project Sues Landowners for Easements - Marcellus Drilling News -- In September 2022, MDN told you about a new 53-mile pipeline project in Western Kentucky — a 16-inch natural gas pipeline to feed natgas to the southern Pennyrile Region (see Kentucky Spending $30M on New NatGas Pipe to Expand Biz Growth). The $115 million project is partly being underwritten by a $30 million grant from the State of Kentucky. Half of the state money ($15 million) was distributed in 2022, and the other half was distributed in 2023 (see W. Kentucky 53-Mile NatGas Pipe Moving Forward with State Funding). Even though the seed money was distributed long ago, construction has not yet begun. There’s an ongoing squabble over who will regulate the pipeline and ensure ratepayers don’t get shafted.
Big Green Files Lawsuit to Block FERC Authorization of MVP Southgate - Marcellus Drilling News -- On Tuesday, seven radicalized Big Green groups filed a court challenge to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) authorization for Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, to construct the MVP Southgate gas pipeline. The petition for review, filed by the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), Appalachian Mountain Advocates, and Sierra Club in the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Circuit), asks the court to vacate the amended certificate of convenience and public necessity issued by FERC in December 2025.
FERC Issues DEIS for Boardwalk Pipe to Carry M-U Gas to Southeast - Marcellus Drilling News -- The Kosciusko Junction Pipeline Project, led by Gulf South Pipeline Company, LLC (a subsidiary of Boardwalk Pipelines), involves the construction of approximately 110 miles of 36-inch natural gas pipeline. The project has an estimated cost of $1 billion and is supported by a 20-year agreement with an anchor customer. It is designed to transport up to 1.16 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) initially, with the potential to expand to 1.58 Bcf/d. The pipeline aims to connect gas supplies from key basins, including the Marcellus/Utica, Haynesville, and Fayetteville, to power markets in the Southeastern United States. In December 2024, Boardwalk pulled the trigger and made a final investment decision (FID) to move forward with the Kosciusko Junction project (see Boardwalk FID on Pipe to Carry M-U, Haynesville Gas to Southeast). Yesterday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a positive Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for the project.
Golden Pass LNG Nears Exporting First Commissioning Cargo -Federal regulators have granted Golden Pass LNG’s request to export its first cargo. The facility’s 6 million tons/year (Mt/y) Train 1 produced LNG for the first time last weekend. Golden Pass requested permission from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to export its first commissioning cargo on or before April 15.
Golden Pass LNG Hits First Production, Adding Demand to Gulf Coast Natural Gas Price Hubs -- Golden Pass LNG has achieved first LNG at the Texas export terminal, setting the stage for more Gulf Coast feed gas demand and additional LNG supply in the coming weeks. At A Glance:
- Facility adds incremental Gulf Coast demand
- Train 1 ramp boosts regional basis support
- Near-term flows remain below full utilization
Qatar-Exxon Golden Pass LNG plant in Texas starts production --The joint venture between QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil Corp. has started liquefied natural gas production from the first of its three trains at a facility in Texas, marking a major milestone for U.S. exports of the fuel as global supplies dwindle.The move sets the stage for Golden Pass LNG to deliver its first cargo from its facilities located in Sabine Pass, Texas, QatarEnergy said in a statement Monday. Global exports from the 18 million tons per annum project are now expected to start in the second quarter of this year.Golden Pass, a terminal near the Texas-Louisiana border, is poised to be a critical source of supply after Iran strikes damaged Qatar’s giant Ras Laffan facility on the Persian Gulf. Traders had been closely following the project as it is one of a few gas export facilities on the U.S. Gulf Coast that are close to being completed. About 20 percent of the world’s supply of LNG is sidelined as Iran all but blocks the Strait of Hormuz, paralyzing the flow of commodities from the region. Most of that LNG went to Asia, where prices for the fuel have surged about 90 percent since the start of the war.
Venture Global and Edison Settle Calcasieu Pass LNG Arbitration - Marcellus Drilling News -- Venture Global (VG) and Edison S.p.A., an Italian electric utility company headquartered in Milan, have signed a commercial agreement to fully resolve their pending arbitration regarding the Calcasieu Pass LNG project. Expected to conclude by the end of Q2 2026, the settlement terminates all legal disputes between the companies. As part of the deal, VG will deliver additional LNG cargoes to Europe, specifically targeting the Italian market through the Adriatic LNG Terminal starting in May 2026. This agreement strengthens their long-term partnership and enhances Italy’s energy security amidst global geopolitical disruptions
Why natural gas bills aren’t rising like prices at the pump - - There is a place in the United States where gas prices are steady and trending downward: Erath, Louisiana. But what’s cheap isn’t gasoline — it’s natural gas. Erath is home to about 2,000 people and the Henry Hub pipeline, where the U.S. market price of natural gas is set.And U.S. natural gas has reacted very differently than oil to disruptions caused by the Iran war, holding steady around $3 per million British thermal units because of the country’s vast supply. In other regions of the world, natural gas prices have skyrocketed as Iran retaliates by bottling up energy supplies in the Persian Gulf and attacking production sites. Liquefied natural gas prices in Asia have risen more than 90 percent since the bombing started.When Iran bombed the Ras Laffan gas plant in Qatar earlier this month, a European benchmark price for LNG surged 13 percent. In the United States, the price at Henry Hub dropped 2 cents.“So, we’re on an energy island here in the U.S.,” said Karen Harbert, CEO of the American Gas Association, “and that’s good for the economy and good for customers.” That isolation has kept natural gas prices from joining gasoline as a headache for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans in their effort to maintain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. It’s also kept electricity prices — which have climbed in recent years — from becoming more of an issue. Natural gas is piped directly into homes to heat air and water, showing up directly in customer bills. It is also the primary engine of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for 40 percent of total generation in 2025.While U.S. customers are shielded, the gyrations in the price and supply are likely to have knock-on effects that fundamentally change markets for domestic gas companies. But it’s not clear how. The rippling price shocks could open up new markets for the export of liquefied natural gas, boosting prospects for new projects on the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Pacific Coast of North America. But the steep increase in price and volatility could also drive countries away from imported natural and toward coal or renewables.
How Does the Iran War Impact Global Natural Gas Markets and U.S. LNG Development? - Click here to listen to the latest episode of Hub & Flow podcast in which NGI’s Christopher Lenton, managing editor of Mexico, and Senior LNG Editor Jacob Dick speak with Anne-Sophie Corbeau of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University about how war in the Middle East is changing global natural gas market dynamics.
Cheniere Signals Continued Feed Gas Growth With Sixth LNG Train Startup --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 210 MMcf/d: Cheniere Energy Inc. has begun commissioning activities on the sixth of seven trains at its Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 expansion project just days after the fifth train reached commercial operations. The firm told Texas regulators in a filing that contractors with Bechtel Group could initiate startup operations on Wednesday. Each train can add up to 0.21 Bcf/d in feed gas demand from West Texas hubs at peak capacity. Bechtel has delivered trains for Stage 3 to Cheniere roughly 2-3 months after commissioning begins.
- 19.6 Bcf/d: LNG feed gas demand is forecast to remain near all-time highs despite multiple operational blips at Gulf Coast terminals. Wood Mackenzie estimated nominations could average 19.6 Bcf/d over the next seven days as production at Golden Pass LNG and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi expansion continue to ramp up. However, pipeline flows indicated outages at Freeport LNG and Golden Pass on Tuesday, leading to nominations being revised down in a later gas cycle.
- 11.58 Mt: U.S. LNG exports reached a new monthly high in March, according to Kpler data, driven by incremental gains in capacity and a significant boost in demand from Asia. U.S. terminals shipped 11.58 million tons (Mt) during the month, edging above the last record set in December. Europe remained the favorable destination for U.S. LNG, importing 7.4 Mt, while East Asia drove a 1.16 Mt year/year gain compared to the prior period. Demand from Egypt also contributed to a significant rise in demand as the country again shifted from a net exporter to importer amid the conflict in the Middle East.
- 20 Tcf: Shell plc is looking to progress plans to tap Venezuelan natural gas for LNG production, including an additional field that could boost potential reserves to 20 Tcf, according to Reuters. The wire service cited anonymous sources that indicated the firm was in discussion to finalize agreements for three fields in the Mariscal Sucre and reserves in the Loran-Manatee offshore field that shares a border with Trinidad and Tobago. Gas would be connected back to existing platforms and used to boost supply for Trinidad’s four Atlantic LNG trains.
Industrial Natural Gas Buyers Face Rising Price Risk as LNG Growth, Iran War Roil Markets - Industrial consumers of natural gas are facing a more global and volatile market as surging U.S. LNG exports, geopolitical risks and shifting demand across the power and manufacturing sectors increasingly influence — but do not replace — domestic price drivers, complicating fuel and feedstock costs. Chart showing NGI prompt-month Henry Hub and TTF natural gas futures prices alongside LNG feed gas deliveries from Jan 2024 to Mar 2026, with Henry Hub prices below $5/MMBtu, TTF prices rising above $20/MMBtu, and LNG feed gas flows increasing toward 18 Bcf/d. At A Glance:
Global prices influence U.S. gas
Export constraints cap gains
Industrial exposure increases
Polar LNG Proposing to Use Sanctioned Russian Equipment - Another project has been launched to revive LNG exports in Alaska, this time at Prudhoe Bay on the state’s North Slope. Map of northern Alaska highlighting key oil and natural gas regions, including NPR-A, ANWR, Prudhoe Bay, and the 1002 Area, with infrastructure such as the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) and resource estimates in billion barrels of oil and Tcf of natural gas. At A Glance:
Equipment designed for Arctic LNG 2
First LNG targeted for 2030
Ice-class vessels would be needed
LNG Canada Advances Coastal GasLink Expansion With New Design Contract --LNG Canada has selected a contractor to design and evaluate the potential second phase of the Coastal GasLink pipeline as the partnership weighs the next steps of the project and the future of Canada’s first export terminal. Map of British Columbia natural gas pipelines and LNG facilities showing operational, under-construction and proposed export terminals, including LNG Canada, Coastal GasLink, Prince Rupert Gas Transmission and Montney/Duvernay supply basins, with NGI price index locations and major import/export points. At A Glance:
Pipeline expansion could double capacity
Shell-led project evaluates expansion pathway
FID still pending
Western Canada’s AECO Prices Languish Near 5-Month Low Despite LNG Export Growth -Cash prices at Western Canada’s natural gas price benchmark are lower than last year as output continues to outstrip takeaway capacity and demand. Chart of NGI’s NOVA/AECO C daily natural gas prices from April 2025 to April 2026, showing volatility with prices dropping below $0/MMBtu in late September, peaking above $3/MMBtu in December, then easing near $1.50/MMBtu. At A Glance:
Spot AECO trails Henry Hub
Associated gas output high
May forwards hover near $1
Lowlands gas play could generate surge of jobs – (interview transcript) Interest in an unconventional natural gas play in the St. Lawrence Lowlands soared this spring when Denver-based Forest Oil Corp. announced promising results following a drilling program that probed the area's underlying shale formations. Preliminary estimates suggest there could be as much as 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas there, handy to existing pipelines and major cities.The potential is so big, according to former Hydro-Québec CEO André Caillé, an adviser for one of the juniors in the area, that Lowlands gas could generate more jobs and economic benefits for the province than does the public utility. We asked oil and gas analysts Wendy Liu and Irene Haas of Canaccord Adams about the play. (All figures are in U.S. dollars.)
Supreme Court rejects Michigan sovereign immunity pipeline fight - - The Supreme Court has rejected Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s final effort to toss out Enbridge Energy’s federal lawsuit challenging her 2020 order revoking Line 5’s easement to cross beneath the Straits of Mackinac.On Monday, the high court issued an order rejecting Whitmer’s petition claiming the state was constitutionally shielded from being forced into federal court by the energy company.The decision comes after two lower courts found that the 11th Amendment, which limits when states could be sued in federal court, did not protect Michigan in this case.“We are disappointed by the Supreme Court’s decision not to review this important issue of state sovereignty,” said Danny Wimmer, press secretary for Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D), in a statement Monday.
Trump officials cite ESA threats to Gulf oil, but production is soaring - Trump officials have exempted oil and gas activities across the entire Gulf of Mexico from endangered species considerations, asserting that production in the region is under threat. But no court has so far turned off the oil spigot in the Gulf, and offshore oil production on federal waters is at near-records highs. Some analysts say that weakens the administration’s argument. Crude oil production from the Gulf, which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America, rose to nearly 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025, the highest production since at least 1998 and 111,000 more barrels per day than in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production from the Gulf could crest 2 million barrels per day this year, which would be a record, the EIA said in January. That amount could “decline slightly” next year “because of natural field declines.” Natural gas production since the late 1990s has dropped, according to the data, as many oil majors turn their focus to deepwater oil projects that release less natural gas. “I think that the national security argument is weak in light of the substantial production levels of fossil fuels being extracted from the Gulf,” said Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond School of Law. The Trump administration’s war against Iran has steeply driven up the price of oil to over $100 a barrel, with the national average of gas prices for consumers topping $4 per gallon Tuesday. The U.S. is already the biggest oil and gas producer in the world, with Gulf activity amounting to about 15 percent of U.S. oil volume. Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston, said that offshore oil projects require years of preparation from oil companies and that companies are unlikely to redouble their investments because the administration removes regulations. “These companies are risking shareholders money and they’re a lot more deliberate,” he said. During a 15-minute meeting of the Endangered Species Committee on Tuesday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that ongoing litigation “threatened to halt” oil and gas production in the Gulf. “Considering this litigation, it is essential to our national security to exempt all Gulf oil and gas activities from the Endangered Species Act requirements,” Hegseth said. Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, who is one of six federal officials that comprise the committee nicknamed the “God Squad,” said at the meeting that Gulf oil disruptions would “force the army to rework its fuel supply chain.” Hegseth and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who chairs the committee, did not specify what litigation they meant. But a coalition of environmental groups last year sued NOAA Fisheries the same day the agency released a new environmental analysis of oil and gas activity in the Gulf, which it found could threaten the critically endangered rice’s whale. While the analysis recommended using technology to improve monitoring of the whales and develop a plan to reduce vessel strikes, it did not restrict oil and gas operations. The environmental groups — which include the Sierra Club, the Center for Biological Diversity, Friends of the Earth, the Turtle Island Restoration Network and the Natural Resources Defense Council — have argued the analysis failed to consider environmental harms, particularly to the Rice’s whale, and have asked a judge in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland to force the government to conduct further reviews. NOAA Fisheries “illogically concluded that oil and gas activity will not jeopardize the recovery of species even after citing species recovery plans finding that oil and gas activity will prevent recovery,” the groups said in an October court filing. But the demands from environmental groups are unlikely to prompt court-ordered stoppages of oil production.
Texas oil and gas industry reporting job losses – The Texas oil and natural gas industry reported job losses in January prior to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report pointing to uncertainty in the industry because of geopolitical conflicts. Despite President Donald Trump pledging during his campaign that the U.S. would increase domestic production and “drill baby drill,” that has not materialized in Texas. In March, there were 49 fewer rig counts in the U.S., according to Baker Hughes. That number has fluctuated and remained above negative 40.Lower rig counts mean less extraction jobs and less investment in drilling new wells. Many exploration and production (E&P) firms have said they are going to “wait and see” on new drilling due to increased costs and instability in the market the conflict has created, according to the Dallas Fed, The Center Square reported. That is reflected in job losses reported in January. Overall, Texas added jobs but also reported losses and high unemployment rates in January, The Center Square reported. Based on an analysis of the latest employment data by the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO), Texas upstream sector jobs decreased over the month in January by 600 for a total of 64,300. Support activities jobs remained flat totaling 128,600. “The escalation of tensions with Iran into broader conflict in early 2026 has introduced significant global energy market vulnerabilities,” TIPRO said. “Early January geopolitical risks contributed to modest price premiums, but subsequent military actions and disruptions, particularly the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, triggered the largest supply shock in modern history. “As a result, Brent and WTI prices surged dramatically, exceeding $100 to $120 per barrel by March 2026. For Texas operators, the higher price environment alleviates margin compression, improves cash flows, and could catalyze renewed investment in drilling, completions, and midstream infrastructure. This in turn supports workforce stability and potential job growth in upstream and related sectors, reinforcing Texas's role as a reliable domestic supplier capable of quickly responding to global signals. However, the volatility also highlights risks of prolonged uncertainty, reinforcing the need for disciplined capital allocation.” By mid-March, oil futures hit $120 a barrel on the West Texas Index. On Thursday, oil futures surpassed $112 a barrel, The Center Square reported. “Even if the conflict were to end tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, oil prices would not return to pre-conflict levels of $67 per barrel,” Andrew Lipow, with Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates, said. “The damage to energy infrastructure is done and will take months, if not years, to repair the more extensively damaged facilities. The damage to Ras Laffan in Qatar will reduce LNG supplies while damage to area refineries will reduce gasoline and diesel availability.” Impacts on the Texas industry include higher oil prices that provide short-term benefit for producers and royalty owners and increased costs at major refineries, TIPRO president Ed Longanecker told The Center Square. This leads to higher costs for consumers, “which is simply a factor of market dynamics that we have no control over,” he said.
Trump wants the world to buy more US oil. He might regret it. - President Donald Trump wants the world to buy more U.S. oil, but he might regret the offer if it raises gasoline prices. In his televised address to the nation Wednesday night, Trump specifically called on countries dealing with fuel supply shocks brought by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran to purchase more from America: “Buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty.”But while the United States does have a lot of oil, it does not have enough to make up for the supply bottled up behind the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli attacks.U.S. crude prices jumped more than $11 on Thursday to land at $111.54 a barrel, their biggest gain in years. Global crude oil benchmark Brent closed above $108. The American Automobile Association said the average U.S. gasoline price rose 2 cents to $4.08 per gallon.In Asia, countries like Thailand have begun fuel rationing and curbing gasoline demand with measures like school closures and four-day work weeks. Several Asian airlines have announced they will reduce flights, and Australia has reported fuel shortages at service stations. In Europe, airlines are warning of cuts if the crisis drags on. And in the United States, United Airlines plans to cut about 5 percent of its capacity to deal with rising fuel prices. “If we supply certain amounts to the rest of the world, you will see an outcry,” said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for U.S.-based fuel retailer Gulf Oil. “If we’re exporting gasoline during hurricane season and people are paying $5 a gallon, do you think they’ll tolerate that? I don’t think so.”The war in Iran and higher gasoline prices are already proving unpopular with voters as midterm elections come into view.The GOP is already struggling to retain control with Trump’s approval rating on the economy sitting at a career low 31 percent, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll Tuesday found two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. should work to end its involvement in the Iran war quickly, even if that means not achieving the goals set out by the Trump administration.In his Wednesday speech, Trump told the countries with oil shortages they should find some “delayed courage” and reopen the strait themselves. Robert McNally, an energy and national security adviser during the George W. Bush administration and now the head of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, said that comment from Trump showed he was “implicitly recognizing” that his demand for the countries to buy U.S. oil won’t fully fix the problem.The White House noted that oil production has continued setting records since he took power in January 2025.“Thanks to the President cutting unnecessary red tape and unleashing American energy, the Administration expects domestic production to continue to grow rapidly, while also tapping into newfound markets,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. The world is already buying up American oil, said Andrew Lipow, head of oil market consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. But for as much oil as the United States now has, there’s not enough to fuel the world. The United States is the world’s biggest producer, but it remains a net importer of crude oil by about 3 million barrels of oil a day.“The world searches around for oil,” Lipow said. “They go to the location that has it available. And that’s actually what we’re seeing in the oil market today.” If the price signals are right, U.S. shale drilling operations can scale up relatively quickly, said Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting for Oxford Economics. But that would still take three to six months to happen. In that time frame, the U.S. might be able to add about 1 million barrels of oil a day, she said. “That comes nowhere near the [roughly 10 million bpd] of supply currently lost through the Strait of Hormuz,” Payne said in an email. Beyond ships being unable to pass through the strait, widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East is likely to crimp supplies even once hostilities pause.Still, U.S. production of oil and its exports of liquefied natural gas serve as a stabilizing force in a chaotic energy environment, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s largest trade group.“The U.S. remains the most reliable and secure supplier of energy — including LNG — strengthening energy security for allies and partners around the world,” spokesperson Andrea Woods said in a statement. There were times in the previous decade when America’s shale oil producers might have rushed to ramp up production in a geopolitical crisis. Shale companies were valuing production over profits then. More volume brought extra revenue to the companies, and served to tamp down U.S. prices at the pump. But more recently, oil companies, chastened by big losses in the late 2010s, have grown reluctant to quickly ramp up production, for fear the price would fall before the oil they pump gets to market. “They’d only commit to a real ramp-up if the conflict clearly drags on,” Payne said. “But that scenario probably means even greater Middle Eastern supply losses, widening the gap further.”There’s also logistical and technical problems. The oil that comes from U.S. shale plays is, in industry parlance, light and sweet crude oil that’s best suited for making gasoline, but not as good for diesel and jet fuel. And refineries on the Gulf Coast are built specifically to process the kind of heavier, sour crude.Still, Trump was right Wednesday night when he said the United States doesn’t actually get much oil from the Middle East. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, the U.S. imports about 646,000 barrels per day from the Middle East — about one-tenth of all U.S. imports, and a small fraction compared to the more than 13 million barrels it produces daily.Trump has often bragged that the United States has the largest petroleum reserves of any country. It actually ranks ninth in proved reserves, according to the 2024 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy.
Gulf of Mexico oil spill spread hundreds of miles, killed wildlife and polluted Mexican reserves (AP) — An oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in early March spread more than 600 kilometers (373 miles), including to seven nature reserves, and originated from a vessel yet to be identified and two “natural seepages,” Mexican authorities announced Thursday. Authorities, however, ruled out the possibility of severe environmental damage from the spill off coast of the eastern state of Veracruz. The release of the preliminary findings came after weeks of controversy surrounding the lack of transparency in the case. Navy secretary, Admiral Raymundo Morales, said satellite image analysis and inspections of the area identified three sources of the spill: a vessel anchored off the coast of the port city of Coatzacoalcos, in the eastern state of Veracruz; a geological site where crude oil naturally seeps, known as a “chapopotera,” located 8 kilometers (5 miles) from that port; and another natural seepage located in the Bay of Campeche. Morales said at a press conference that the vessel has not yet been identified because, as of early March, there were 13 ships sailing in the area that had not yet been inspected. He also admitted that the source of the spill “remains active,” and that one of the main sources is estimated to be the “natural seeps in Cantarell, in the Bay of Campeche.” “These oil seeps have a constant, natural emission; however, there has been a greater flow of contaminants in the last month,” he said. Five months earlier, heavy rains and flooding caused a pipeline rupture and a spill, also in Veracruz, that extended for 8 kilometers (5 miles) along the Pantepec River. In the March spill, Morales reported that the oil covered an area of about 600 kilometers (373 miles) including 200 kilometers (125 miles) of coastline in the southern states of Veracruz and Tabasco. To date, “430 tons of hydrocarbons” have been collected. Secretary of the Environment Alicia Bárcena reported that the spill affected seven protected natural reserves in the states of Veracruz and Tabasco, but insisted that “we have not detected severe environmental damage.” Environmental authorities have identified six species, including sea turtles, birds and fish, that were contaminated by the spill. The National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (Conanp) reported Wednesday in a statement that hydrocarbons have been collected in the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve, the Veracruz Reef System National Park, the Lechuguillas Sanctuary, the Totonacapan Beaches Sanctuary, the Lobos Tuxpan Reef System Flora and Fauna Protection Area, and south of the Rancho Nuevo Beach Sanctuary in the state of Veracruz. Cleanup efforts were also carried out in the Centla Wetlands Biosphere Reserve in the state of Tabasco.
Mexico Pacific Coast LNG Becomes Strategic as Global Energy Tensions Mount - Surging geopolitical instability is driving a wave of LNG offtake demand toward Mexico’s West Coast, as global buyers scramble for de-risked energy supplies.Proposed expansion of LNG export infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf Coast, highlighting key pipelines, storage hubs and connectivity to major shale basins. At A Glance:
Offtake interest surges
Waha needs outlet
Qatar risks reshape buyer strategy
Shell Strengthens Caribbean LNG Position with Venezuelan Gas Ambitions - Energy major Shell is methodically expanding its footprint in the Caribbean region. The company is reportedly in negotiations to secure access to offshore natural gas fields in Venezuela. This strategic move is aimed at significantly boosting utilization rates at its liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Trinidad. A central facility in Shell's regional strategy is the Atlantic LNG plant in Trinidad, in which the company holds a 45% stake. Currently, the plant is operating below its potential, producing only about 12 million tons per year against a total capacity of 15.5 million tons. This shortfall is primarily due to a lack of sufficient feed gas. Shell's plan involves tapping into Venezuelan gas reserves to fill this production gap and, looking ahead, potentially push output beyond the plant's original design capacity. The primary targets are the Dragon field, estimated to hold 4.2 trillion cubic feet of reserves, and the Mariscal Sucre project. The latter encompasses four separate fields with a combined resource estimate of approximately 12 trillion cubic feet. Furthermore, Shell is evaluating opportunities in the cross-border Loran field, shared by Venezuela and Trinidad, which holds combined reserves estimated at around 20 trillion cubic feet. Shell already operates the Loran-Manatee field on the Trinidadian side of this resource. A notable development adding momentum to Shell's strategy is the apparent withdrawal of Chevron from its Venezuelan interests. Should this exit materialize, Shell could substantially expand its operational control over the Loran field. Such a consolidation would represent a significant strategic advantage, enabling a more unified management of the region's gas infrastructure under a single operator.
Oil spill from Exxon’s 8th project could spreads to 12 other Caribbean islands -- An oil spill that could occur during the eight planned oil project in the Stabroek Block will hit Trinidad and Tobago the hardest, potentially affecting sensitive resources such as mangroves, manatee habitats, beaches, and forest reserves. The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) conducted by Exxon’s Consultant, Acorn International outlines a detailed description of the possible transboundary impacts from the proposed development, Longtail. According to the study, “Owing to its unique location at the southern end of the Lesser Antilles and relatively close proximity to the PDA (Project Development Area), Trinidad and Tobago would have the highest potential to be affected by the transboundary impacts of any unmitigated loss-of-well-control event in the wet season. Stochastic modelling indicated a maximum 60 to 70 per cent probability of condensate stranding on at least a portion of the coast of Trinidad and Tobago for both the most credible WCD (Worst Case Discharge) and maximum WCD scenarios in the wet season, depending on location.” The document warns that sensitive coastal resources within this zone are likely to be affected, including “all of Trinidad’s eastern and southern mangroves, manatee habitat, marine turtle nesting beaches, and forest reserves from Redhead in the north to Guayaguayare in the south.” Further, it said the beautiful coastlines of Tobago could also be hit, causing damage to “numerous marine turtle nesting beaches and coral reefs, as well as several large seagrass meadows in the south near the Mount Pleasant area.” According to the EIA, Tobago’s coastline records the highest probability of condensate reaching the shore (60 to 70 percent in the wet season) across the country’s shorelines. Meanwhile, it notes that in the dry season scenarios, the highest probability of condensate stranding is consistent across the country’s coast at less than 10 per cent. Oiling of the shoreline can happen within five days during the wet season and about 10 days after in the dry season. Exxon has indicated to the Government of Guyana (GoG) that numerous fishing areas are located east of Trinidad and could potentially be impacted if condensate from a large spill reaches them. In addition to Trinidad and Tobago, the study has highlighted a dozen other Caribbean islands that could be hit by a spill that occurs during the eight project; these include Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthélemy, Saba, and United States Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, the oil company said that implementing the Oil Spill Response Programme (OSRP) would significantly reduce transboundary impacts. With regard to working with respective countries, it noted that the communication protocol for country-to-country engagement is through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the direction of the Government of Guyana. Presently, ExxonMobil is before the Court of Appeal in Guyana fighting against citizens who previously secured a ruling from the High Court, which ordered an unlimited parent company guarantee document be signed by the oil giant to protect Guyana from any additional oil spill costs not covered by the limited insurance. Currently, the company has a US $600M oil spill insurance policy in place per event and a U.S.$2B guarantee to cover costs above the insurance. Two citizens, through their lawyers, headed by international lawyer, Melinda Janki argue that the company must pay for all damages caused by a spill. In the absence of the unlimited parent company guarantee, they say Guyana will be left to pay for damages not covered by the US$2.6B. The Longtail project is expected to produce 250,000 barrels of condensate per day (bpd) with a gas production capacity of 1,200 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/day). BlackRock Midstream describes condensate as extremely light oil. The FPSO is being specially designed to accommodate future gas export capabilities. The EIA explains, “The FPSO will be designed to separate the recovered reservoir fluids into water and gas phases. The condensate will be treated to remove impurities (e.g., sulphate and other salts) and then sent to storage tanks in the hull.” Exxon plans to drill approximately 24 to 60 development wells, with development well drilling scheduled to begin in 2027 and possibly extending as late as 2031 and beyond. The company said installation of subsea components is slated to commence in 2028 with installation of the Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO), commissioning and startup planned to occur from 2028 to 2031. Longtail is expected to continue for at least 30 years according to the project schedule. Unlike previous developments focused primarily on oil, Longtail will focus on gas production. It will produce hydrocarbons from the non-associated gas fields and potential proximal resources according to the EIA.
Brazil’s oil and natural gas production hits record in February - - Oil and natural gas production in Brazil reached a record high in February 2026, according to a report released this Wednesday (1st) by the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). A total of 5.304 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) were produced, a metric that includes both oil and natural gas. The previous record was set in October 2025, at 5.255 million boe/d. Considering oil alone, production reached 4.061 million barrels per day (bbl/d) — an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous month and 16.4% higher than in the same month of 2025. Natural gas production in February totaled 197.63 million cubic meters per day (m³/d), representing a 2.3% increase compared to January and a 24.5% rise compared to February 2025. Production came from 6,079 wells, including 582 offshore and 5,497 onshore. Offshore fields accounted for 98% of oil production and 87.8% of natural gas output in the country. Fields operated by Petrobras, either alone or in partnership with other companies, were responsible for 89.46% of total production. The pre-salt layer accounted for 80.2% of Brazil’s production, totaling 4.243 million boe/d in February. This represents a 2.3% increase compared to the previous month and a 20.1% rise compared to February 2025. From 181 pre-salt wells, 3.264 million bbl/d of oil and 155.56 million m³/d of natural gas were produced. The Tupi Field, in the Santos Basin, was the country’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas, with 865.98 thousand barrels per day and 42.87 million m³/d, respectively. The facilities with the highest output were the FPSO Almirante Tamandaré, in the Búzios Field, for oil, with 197,903 bbl/d; and the FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias, in the Mero Field, for natural gas, with 12.37 million m³/d.
European natural gas prices jump over 6% to $58 amid Iran war jitters --European natural gas prices jumped on Thursday, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract rising more than 6% to over €50 ($58), as markets reassessed supply risks after fresh remarks by US President Donald Trump on the Iran war. The TTF price rose to trade near €50.4 ($58.1) per megawatt-hour as of 0655GMT on Thursday. The jump came after natural gas prices had eased in recent sessions amid hopes for a ceasefire, which initially increased after some reports of diplomacy between Iran and the US. However, Trump’s remarks late Wednesday that signaled US attacks on Iran would continue reversed hopes for signs of a near-term ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. “We’re going to hit them extremely hard. Over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” Trump said. The front-month TTF contract, regarded as Europe’s benchmark for natural gas trading, saw a historic high of $78 last month. Traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly risks to critical oil and gas transit routes, while also assessing the potential impact on liquefied natural gas flows to Europe. European gas markets have remained highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks since the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, with supply concerns often feeding into sharp price swings across the region.
Global Warmth Curtails LNG Demand, Providing Buyers Flexibility Amid Price Volatility - A wave of warm weather over key global natural gas hubs is pushing down LNG demand, giving buyers breathing room to weigh geopolitical risk on rising benchmarks. Charts of trailing 365-day mean temperatures for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo, comparing daily averages to normal levels, showing seasonal swings and recent temperature trends impacting global natural gas demand.
At A Glance:
Narrowing spreads reshape LNG trade flows
Europe drives bearish demand outlook globally
U.S. demand mixed but overall softer
Cyclone Cuts Australian LNG Production, Tightening Supply Outlook and Pushing Prices Higher - Global natural gas prices swung higher on Monday after another day of mixed signals over the Middle East war and a cyclone disrupted operations at several export terminals in Western Australia. Map of Australia natural gas liquefaction facilities showing major LNG export projects including Gorgon, Wheatstone, Pluto, Ichthys, Prelude, and Gladstone hubs across Western Australia and Queensland. At A Glance:
Two Australian terminals still offline
JKM outpacing TTF
U.S. supply grows
Trump promoted fossil fuels. His war is pushing the world away from them. --President Donald Trump spent much of the last year cajoling the world into using more oil and gas. But the war he started is causing some countries to contemplate burning less of them.Asian countries are mandating work from home policies, fuel rationing and other energy conservation measures. European gas stations have already imposed fuel rationing amid shortages. Major airlines are considering canceling peak summer season flights if the war drags on.Those moves could represent just the beginning of an unprecedented period of demand destruction, as governments worldwide wrestle with the sudden loss of oil and gas imports from the Middle East. The crisis has the potential to boomerang on Trump, driving countries away from fossil fuels and into the arms of cleaner technologies the president scorns.“If you have higher prices for longer periods of time, it is going to undermine demand for oil and gas,” said Ira Joseph, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Spot prices for Dated Brent, a gauge of real-time global oil prices, surged above $140 a barrel Thursday, the highest level since the 2008 recession. Trump has promoted American oil and gas relentlessly since returning to the White House and frequently admonished allies for attempts to green their economies. In a September speech at the United Nations, Trump argued clean energy and climate policies were destructive and that countries needed to purchase more “abundant, affordable energy” from the United States.“I’ve been right about everything, and I’m telling you that if you don’t get away from the green energy scam, your country is going to fail,” he said. But faced with a sudden shortage of fuel needed for transport, cooking and keeping the lights on, governments in Europe and Asia have started calling for a faster shift to clean energy.The Philippines is fast-tracking 1.4 gigawatts of renewables, in what would amount to a roughly 40 percent increase in the country’s wind and solar capacity. European leaders want to ramp up nuclear energy. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called for a rapid shift to renewable energy this week, saying, “Our future will be at serious risk if we continue to rely on fossil fuels.”European Commission energy chief Dan Jørgensen warned that the bloc of 27 nations “will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future” and called for building out more clean energy to “truly become energy independent.”“Going forward, these countries are no longer going to be looking at the current price of fossil fuels relative to renewables, which by the way, renewables are already competitive in a lot of cases,” said Mary Svenstrup, who served as an economics adviser on the National Security Council during the Biden administration. “They’re going to be factoring in potential choke points in fossil fuels and the potential risk and volatility that those energy sources create for them.”Some world leaders are already panicked. The fighting has resulted in the shutdown of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastucture across the Persian Gulf, sending energy prices in much of the world soaring.“The war in the Middle East has caused the biggest spike in petrol and diesel prices in history,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in a rare national address Wednesday. “Australia is not an active participant in this war, but all Australians are paying higher prices because of it.”The turmoil unfolding across the globe is largely absent at home. The advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has turned the U.S. into one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world. Countries in Asia rely on the Middle East for around a quarter of their oil supplies and a fifth of their natural gas. While they’re competing with Europe for limited liquefied natural gas cargoes, U.S. natural gas prices Wednesday hit a six-month low.The U.S. is the country best insulated to the global oil and gas shocks now transforming the world, said Rory Johnston, an oil analyst who writes the newsletter “Commodity Context.” “The best thing to do right now is to sit pretty and say this is gonna suck, but we are in the best relative position in the world, particularly of major oil consuming regions, to handle this,” he said. The U.S. is not entirely immune to the economic fallout of the war. Prices at the gasoline pump have climbed steadily since the conflict began and now average slightly more than $4 a gallon nationally. Democrats are using the war to attack Trump on his affordability policies and polls show a growing unease among a public that is mostly experiencing the war through high gas prices. In a statement, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said the president’s “energy dominance” agenda put the U.S. in a position “to not rely on the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. other countries.” She argued other countries are now seeking to emulate his approach. “If anything, the ongoing military operations have actually underscored the importance of domestically producing reliable, affordable, and secure energy,” Rogers said. “Many of our allies that have tried transitioning to intermittent and unreliable renewable energy sources have predictably failed to break their reliance on foreign oil that goes through the Strait.”
Chevron resumes natural gas production at Leviathan - Chevron Mediterranean Ltd. restarted production at the Leviathan natural gas field 130 km offshore Haifa in the eastern Mediterranean after a suspension due to the Iran war, partner NewMed Energy said in a release. The operator had previously received clearance from the Petroleum Commissioner to proceed with preparations to resume operations at the Leviathan platform offshore Israel. Regular production from the reservoir was restarted on Apr. 2. Chevron is operator at Leviathan (39.66%) with partners NewMed Energy (45.34%) and Ratio Energies (15%).
India makes first Iranian oil purchase in seven years -Indian refiners have purchased Iranian oil amid the Middle East conflict that has disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil ministry said on Saturday. The world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, India has not received a cargo from Tehran since May 2019, following U.S. pressure not to buy Iranian crude, but supply disruptions from the U.S.-Israel war have hit the South Asian nation hard. “Amid Middle East supply disruptions, Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports,” the oil ministry said on X. Last month, the United States temporarily removed sanctions on Iranian oil and refined products to ease supply shortages. India has secured its full requirements of crude oil for the coming months, the ministry added. “India imports crude oil from 40-plus countries, with companies having full flexibility to source oil from different sources and geographies based on commercial considerations.” India has also bought 44,000 metric tons of Iranian liquefied petroleum gas loaded on a sanctioned vessel. The ministry said the vessel, which berthed at the western port of Mangalore on Wednesday, is discharging the fuel.
OPEC Output Plunges by 7 Million Bpd as War Chokes Supply -- Crude oil production by OPEC members dropped by 7.2 million barrels daily last month, according to a Reuters survey using data from platform LSEG and analytics information providers, including Kpler, the publication reported.The biggest production cuts were made by Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, for a total OPEC output of 21.57 million barrels daily for March. This is the lowest OPEC production rate since June 2020, Reuters noted in its report. Venezuela and Nigeria were the only OPEC members that saw their oil production increase in March.Iraq suffered the biggest production cut, from 4.15 million barrels daily in February to just 1.4 million barrels daily in March. Kuwait also had to slash production significantly, to just about half a million barrels daily from over 3 million barrels daily before the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran following U.S. and Israeli strikes.The UAE has had to reduce oil production by almost half, Bloomberg reported last month, from 3.56 million barrels daily to about 2 million barrels daily. Saudi Arabia has cut output by around 2 million barrels daily.“Although we have experienced disruptions in the past, this crisis is the largest ever faced by the oil and gas industry in this region,” Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser said last month, echoing the opinion of what seems to be a majority of industry leaders and analysts alike.Recovery from the oil and gas supply disruption resulting from the war would take quite a while, analysts are warning, so economists are now predicting a global recession, set to emerge in the middle of this year.“The speed and scale of this energy shock push us into uncharted territory, and it’s possible that diesel, jet fuel, and shipping fuel shortages could inflict greater damage to activity this year,” Ben May, the head of global macro research at Oxford Economics, warned recently, as quoted by City AM.
Iraq experiences OPEC’s largest fall in oil output - Iraqi News - Iraq saw the largest reduction in oil output among OPEC members, with an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in March, down from 4.15 million barrels per day in February, according to a study conducted by Reuters. In March, OPEC’s crude oil production decreased by 7.3 million barrels per day, bringing the total output to 21.57 million. This decline was mainly due to reduced production from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE made modest cuts since they both have export routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, among all OPEC member countries, only Venezuela and Nigeria increased output during March. In late March, Iraqi energy officials reported that storage tanks were at critical levels. They also indicated that the government faced challenges in transporting crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil production from major oil fields in southern Iraq decreased by roughly 80 percent, to approximately 800,000 barrels per day. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani indicated in late March that crude oil produced by the state-owned Basra Oil Company (BOC) has been reduced to 900,000 barrels per day. Abdul-Ghani stated that oil production fell from 3.3 million barrels per day to 900,000 barrels due to the suspension of oil exports through the country’s southern ports, the state-run news agency (INA) reported. According to Abdul-Ghani, the current production volumes are being used to operate local refineries. Prior to the conflict, Iraq’s southern oil fields produced around 4.3 million barrels per day.
Iran’s daily oil revenue doubles amid US-Israeli aggression: Report -- Iran has reportedly doubled its daily oil revenue since late February, leveraging the ongoing US-Israeli pressure aggression into a strategic financial advantage. According to a recent analysis by The Economist, as the aggression enters its fifth week, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically in the energy sector. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which approximately 15% of the world’s oil supply typically flows—has led to a collapse in revenues for Persian Gulf monarchies while simultaneously swelling Tehran’s coffers. Data cited by The Economist indicates that Iran is currently exporting between 2.4 and 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), comprising 1.5 to 1.8 million bpd of crude oil and the remainder of condensates. With global supplies tightening due to the instability, oil prices have surged, and Iran has capitalized on the shift. Analysts note that Tehran’s oil machine has demonstrated significant resilience, adapting to ongoing hostilities and sanctions to maintain operations. China remains the primary destination, absorbing over 90% of Iran’s exports. Small, independent “teapot” refineries are reportedly purchasing Iranian crude at prices nearing Brent crude benchmarks. In a notable shift from previous years when Iranian oil traded at steep discounts due to sanctions, the commodity is now being sold at premium rates. Economists suggest this dynamic has provided Tehran with unprecedented financial strength during a period of intense military and economic pressure from the United States and Israel.
Oil prices exceed $115 again on global markets - Oil prices in global commodity markets started the new week with an increase of nearly $10, APA-Economics reports. According to the report, May futures for U.S. WTI crude traded on the NYMEX rose by 1.71% or $1.70 to reach $101.34 per barrel. Meanwhile, May futures for Brent crude traded on the ICE exchange increased by 2.65% or $2.98, reaching $115.55 per barrel. It should be noted that Brent crude closed at around $105 per barrel at the end of last week. Market participants are currently assessing rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly potential supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz, which are directly impacting oil prices.
Brent Oil Prices See Monthly Rise As Houthi Attacks Widen Gulf Conflict - Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent heading for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis widened the Iran war by launching their first attacks on Israel. Brent futures rose 66 cents or 0.6% to $113.23 a barrel at 1031 am ET (1431 GMT) after settling 4.2% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $2.2 or 2.2%, at $101.83 after gaining 5.5% in the previous session. Brent has soared by about 58% this month, the steepest monthly jump in LSEG data going back to 1988, exceeding gains made during the 1990 Gulf War. U.S. crude, meanwhile, has climbed by 51% for its biggest monthly gain since May 2020. The gains were driven by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies. The conflict, which began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has since spread across the Middle East, stoking concerns over shipping routes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. Israel’s military said it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen on Monday, two days after Iran‑aligned Houthis fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah also fired rockets at Israel on Monday. The Houthis have yet to target shipping in the Red Sea, which handles about 15% of global maritime traffic. “If the Houthis were to attack shipping and shut the southern entrance to the Red Sea, it would likely be a $5 to $10 event,” Adding to price pressures, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on its oil wells and power plants. “Great progress has been made, but if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island,” Trump wrote in a social media post. Previously, Trump said he would pause attacks on Iran's energy network until April 6. As more U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East, Trump said earlier that the U.S. and Iran have been meeting "directly and indirectly" and Tehran's new leaders have been "very reasonable". Iran, however, described U.S. proposals to end a month of war in the Middle East as "unrealistic, illogical and excessive" on Monday and unleashed more missiles on Israel. The Israeli military said on Monday that it was attacking Iranian government infrastructure throughout Tehran. "Trump's extended deadline of April 6 – when the U.S. could potentially resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure – has had no reassuring effect. The market is now asking for concrete signs of de-escalation, not just rhetoric," SEB Research said in a note. Separately, finance leaders from the Group of Seven countries said on Monday they stood ready to take "all necessary measures" to safeguard energy market stability and limit broader economic spillovers from recent volatility. Saudi crude exports redirected from the Strait of Hormuz to Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. That was a sharp increase from an average of 770,000 bpd in January and February. If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot toward Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said. Attacks in the region escalated at the weekend and damaged Oman's Salalah terminal despite efforts to start ceasefire talks. Separately, Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical said on Monday that it was in talks with Russian partners to buy crude oil. The company said it would also buy more crude from Africa, the U.S. and Southeast Asia. Colombia's oil production fell 2.74% year-on-year in February compared to a year earlier, the country's ANH national hydrocarbon agency said on Monday.
Oil Prices Rise on Fresh US Threats in Widening Iran War (DTN) -- Oil prices edged higher Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon to end the Middle East conflict. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued at a trickle as the month-long U.S.-Israel war against Iran widened over the weekend with Houthis in Yemen launching attacks on Israel. The Tehran-linked militia had in the past targeted ships near the Red Sea and could pose a threat to millions of bpd of crude exports Saudi Arabia has rerouted to its Red Sea port. The U.S. has mobilized tens of thousands of troops in what some observers deemed a possible preparation for a ground offensive. Trump on Sunday said that the U.S. could "take Iran's oil" and seize Kharg island, Iran's major oil export hub. The president had previously extended a moratorium on attacks on the country's energy infrastructure until April 6. While he has used tough language, Trump has also claimed significant progress in peace talks with Iran. Tehran has denied there were such talks, although it acknowledged an exchange of messages via Pakistan which has stated its willingness to be a mediator in talks proposed this week. Market participants are, meanwhile, awaiting evidence that a truce will be reached soon. Oil prices have risen sharply since the start of the conflict on Feb. 27, with Brent futures on track for their largest monthly increase on record. As of Monday morning, front-month Brent futures have appreciated by close to 60% so far in March. At 9:05 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI for May delivery was up $1 to $100.64 bbl, after a session high of $103.38. Brent for May delivery rose $2.30 to $107.62 bbl after a session peak at $116.89 bbl. On their penultimate trading day for March, ULSD futures for April delivery advanced $0.0568 to $4.5523 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures edged higher by $0.0267 to $3.2768 gallon. The contracts for May delivery rose by $0.1136 gallon and $0.0464 gallon, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.153 points to 100.135 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Oil surges as Iran war escalates, Trump threatens Kharg Island - Oil prices have jumped up again as the war in Iran rages on and President Trump threatens escalations. On Monday morning, international benchmark Brent crude was trading at about $114 per barrel, up significantly from last week, when prices were floating closer to $100 or $105 per barrel. Prices have been elevated since the war began because of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane. About a fifth of the world’s oil was previously moving through this strait on a given day. Prices have fluctuated amid changing expectations about the duration of the conflict. President Trump, in an interview published Sunday, suggested the U.S. could “take the oil” in Iran. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” he told the Financial Times. The administration has also been increasing its troop presence in the region while refusing to rule out a ground invasion. Meanwhile, on Monday, the president threatened to target Iranian power plants, oil wells, and drinking water desalination plants. The conflict crossed the one-month mark over the weekend. Gasoline prices have risen along with the oil and were averaging about $3.99 per gallon in the U.S. on Monday.
Widening Middle East Conflict Pushes the Oil Market Back Above $100 - The crude oil market settled over the $100 level for the first time since 2022 after Yemeni Houthis widened the Iran war by launching their attacks on Israel and as more U.S. troops arrived in the region. The market gapped higher on the opening from $101.24 to $102.60 and traded to $103.38 as the conflict was no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz but extended into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb. The market later erased some of its gains and posted a low of $104.50 in early morning trading before it continued on its upward trend. The market was further supported as U.S. President Donald Trump issued another warning to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or risk U.S. attacks on its oil wells and power plants as well as Kharg Island. The oil market rallied to a high of $103.86 and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The May WTI contract settled up $3.24 at $102.88 and later rallied to a high of $105.36 in the post settlement period. The May Brent contract settled up 21 cents at $112.78. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 13.12 cents at $4.3643 and the RB market settling up 10.14 cents at $3.3515. The White House said that talks with Iran were continuing and progressing well, adding that what Tehran says publicly differs from what it tells U.S. officials in private. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said that he doesn’t want to “put a schedule on” the timeline for ending the war with Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that the global oil market is well supplied, with more boats traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. The Post reported that whether President Donald Trump would approve plans for deploying ground troops remains uncertain. The AAA reported that the average U.S. retail gasoline price stood at $3.99/gallon as of Sunday. Sable Offshore said it has begun selling oil from its Santa Ynez Pipeline System offshore California to Chevron, after resuming crude transportation earlier this month. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 886,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending April 3rd, increasing available refining capacity by 143,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 589,000 bpd in the week ending April 10th. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected Colonial Pipeline’s request for a rehearing after the regulator rejected the company’s proposed changes to how the country’s largest U.S. fuel artery handles gasoline shipments.
Oil Prices Jump After Iranian Drone Strike Hits Kuwaiti Tanker - GreekReporter.com - Oil prices surged early Tuesday after an Iranian drone strike hit the fully loaded Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi near Dubai. By 3:40 a.m., Brent crude had risen 2.05% to $109.59 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.96% to $105.93. As the session progressed, Brent extended its gains to $114.58 a barrel. A later Reuters global markets update put it at $115.50, underscoring how sharply the attack amplified fears of supply disruption in the Gulf. The attack targeted the Al Salmi, a giant crude carrier from Kuwait. According to the initial maritime security alert, the strike hit the vessel on its starboard side while it was sailing 31 nautical miles, or more than 57 kilometers, northwest of Dubai, near the Strait of Hormuz. The impact sparked a fire on board. Crew members remained safe, and officials reported no immediate casualties. Authorities also said they had not detected any environmental damage in the immediate aftermath, although the scale of the incident quickly raised concerns because of the ship’s cargo. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said the Al Salmi was fully loaded when the drone struck. The company said the attack damaged the tanker and ignited a fire inside the vessel, while teams continued to assess the full extent of the damage. Because the ship was carrying a full crude cargo, the incident also fueled fears of a possible oil spill in surrounding waters, even though officials had not confirmed any leak in the immediate aftermath. The strike has deepened anxiety over the security of shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important chokepoints for oil exports. Any disruption in or around the area can send immediate shockwaves through global crude markets. Monday had already marked a major moment for traders, with WTI settling above $100 a barrel for the first time since the current phase of the regional war began on February 28. Tuesday’s rally showed that investors now fear direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure could trigger a more sustained, risk-driven climb in oil prices.
Oil prices: Goldman Sachs research reveals the true impact of Strait of Hormuz blockade -- Brent crude has surged 13% in a week to trade above $110 a barrel, with WTI crossing $100 for the first time since June 2022, as the conflict with Iran shows no sign of resolution and the threat of a second major shipping disruption emerges in the Red Sea. Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, estimates that flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil normally passes, have collapsed to just 5% of normal levels as fighting continues between US and Iranian forces. The net hit to global commercial oil stocks currently stands at 11.4 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs, exceeding the 10 million barrel per day assumption underpinning the bank's 2026 annual average Brent forecast of $85 per barrel. Pipeline diversions via Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea and the UAE's Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman have partially offset the Hormuz disruption, redirecting 5.6 million barrels per day, with both routes now operating near full capacity. However, a new threat has emerged to that alternative corridor, with Houthi forces in Yemen launching ballistic missiles at Israel and threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to unfriendly vessels, the key waterway through which rerouted Saudi crude must pass to reach European and Asian markets. Flows through the Bab el-Mandeb recently exceeded 7 million barrels per day for the first time since December 2023, when Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping first began, making any renewed closure particularly damaging. Diplomatic signals remain deeply contradictory, with President Trump claiming "great progress" in talks with Tehran while simultaneously threatening strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, as the Pentagon reportedly prepares for weeks of potential ground operations. Global visible oil inventories have declined by 130 million barrels since the conflict began, OECD countries have begun releasing strategic petroleum reserves, and prediction markets now put only a 36% probability on the conflict ending by mid-May, down 18 percentage points in less than a week. Prediction market Polymarket shows traders pricing WTI crude oil hitting $120 per barrel by end of June at 62%, with an 83% probability of breaching $110 and a 92% chance of touching $105, reflecting the market's near-certainty that prices will hold elevated through the second quarter even if the conflict de-escalates modestly. At the more extreme end of the distribution, bettors place a 35% probability on $140 and 13% on $200, a level that would represent a near-doubling from pre-conflict prices and historically associated with severe global economic disruption. A separate Polymarket contract shows only a 36% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire occurring before crude hits $120, implying the market believes the $120 threshold is more likely to be breached than peace is to break out first.
De-Escalation Hopes Weigh on the Oil Market Despite Ongoing Supply Risks - The oil market ended the session 1.46% lower following unconfirmed reports that Iran’s President said the country was ready to end the war, assuming some guarantees were put in place. The market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading following an initial rally to a high of $106.86 following the news that Kuwait Petroleum Corp’s fully loaded crude oil tanker Al Salmi, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels, was struck by an alleged Iranian attack at a Dubai port. However, the market was pressured by the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump ending the war with Iran. The market gave up its gains following a report by The Wall Street Journal stating that President Trump told aides he was willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut in, leaving its reopening for a later date. The prospect of a de-escalation pushed the market lower and kept it under pressure for much of the day. However, it held its support on fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain mostly shut in for a prolonged period of time. The crude market later sold off to a low of $99.62 on the unconfirmed reports of Iran’s readiness to end the war. The May WTI contract later settled in a sideways trading range and ended the session down $1.50 at $101.38, while the May Brent contract settled up $5.57 at $118.35. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 20.09 cents at $4.1634 and the RB market settling down 3.92 cents at $3.3123. According to GasBuddy, the U.S. national average retail price of gasoline crossed $4/gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday. The $4 per gallon milestone was last reached in August 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and represents what some analysts have called a psychological barrier for consumers. U.S. national average retail gasoline prices have increased about $1.06/gallon or 36%, since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil output fell the most in two years during January following a severe winter storm that shut in production in large areas of the country. U.S. crude oil output fell 410,000 bpd on the month in January to 13.25 million bpd, the lowest level since February 2025.Bloomberg reported that the number of vessels transiting Hormuz with their signals on is increasing, even as the waterway remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping without clearance from Iran. According to Bloomberg-compiled tracking data, weekly two-way transits increased to an average of seven vessels through Monday, up from five the previous week. While still a fraction of normal traffic, the increase suggests a small, selective fleet is continuing to pass through. The latest data show that at least six ships, mostly linked to China and Iran, were seen exiting the Persian Gulf between Monday and early Tuesday. Inbound traffic over the same period was limited to a handful of fuel tankers and bulk carriers, most of them also tied to the two countries.
WTI, June Brent crude futures settle down on reports that Iran may be ready to end war (Reuters) - Brent futures for June delivery settled down more than $3 on Tuesday following unconfirmed media reports that Iran's president said the country was ready to end the war, assuming some guarantees were put into place. The Brent May contract was on track for a record monthly gain but it expired on Tuesday, with liquidity dropping as investors move their exposure to the more liquid June contract. Traded volumes for May futures were 18,652 lots, some 30 times lower than June. The Brent June contract settled down $3.42 at $103.97 per barrel, dropping after media reports, including from Bloomberg, that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to end the war but wants guarantees. Brent crude futures for May settled up $5.57, or 4.94%, at $118.35 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures settled down $1.50 or 1.46% at $101.38. Front-month Brent futures hit a record monthly gain of 64% in March, according to LSEG data dating back to June 1988. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate has gained around 52% in the month, its biggest jump since May 2020. "Once again the trap door under this market opened up with the alleged statement from the Iranian president, if there is an immediate end to hostilities then we know the Strait (of Hormuz) can be reopened and supply will come back on to the market, taking out a lot of the risk premium that has been built up in prices," The international benchmark has steadily risen over the last four weeks as the Iran war has escalated, with attacks across energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf that have resulted in the worst-ever oil-and-gas supply disruption. OPEC's oil output plunged in March by 7.3 million barrels per day on a month-over-month basis to 21.57 million bpd, its lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020, a Reuters survey found, amid forced export cuts. The market has vacillated throughout the month, with a series of dips each time U.S. President Donald Trump suggests the military operation may be de-escalated - only to resume its upward path due to the supply impairment caused by Iran's threats against vessels transiting the key Strait of Hormuz, the artery used to ship one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. Trump has suggested other countries should intervene to open the strait, a move European nations have not wanted to take until hostilities cease. The U.S. has removed sanctions on barrels from Russia and pledged reserve releases with a group of other nations, but those measures will only offset the supply loss for a limited period of time. "With the oil market's remaining buffers gradually being consumed, the market's vulnerability to a prolonged closure of (Hormuz) means that we are moving closer to physical oil shortages across a wider geographic scope, and the upward momentum for oil prices is likely to strengthen further," said Lin Ye, a vice president for commodities markets and oil at Rystad Energy. Trading on Tuesday was volatile, with front-month Brent futures swinging in a range of up 5.7% to down 1.3% from Monday's close. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that if Iran did not make a deal to end the war, the U.S. would continue the conflict with more intensity, telling a briefing on Tuesday that the next few days could be decisive. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit back with a new threat, saying U.S. companies in the region will be targeted as of Wednesday in retaliation for attacks on Iran, listing Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM , Tesla and Boeing among 18 firms. On Monday the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the strait remains largely closed, leaving its reopening for a later date. "While diplomatic signals remain mixed, the ground reality suggests that uncertainty will persist," s "Even in the event of de-escalation, restoring damaged infrastructure will take time, keeping supply tight." Kuwait Petroleum Corp on Tuesday said its fully loaded crude oil tanker Al Salmi, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels, was struck by an Iranian attack at a Dubai port. Officials also warned of the risk of oil spills in the area. U.S. crude oil inventories jumped last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks rose by 10.26 million barrels in the week ended March 27, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.21 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.04 million barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.
Crude oil prices rise 2% despite hopes of US-Iran war ending within weeks. What's near-term outlook? -Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday, April 1, after a record monthly gain, even as optimism grew that the ongoing US-Iran war may soon come to an end following recent remarks from US President Donald Trump.Brent crude futures rose over 1.8% to $105.8 per barrel, after declining 3.2% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, WTI crude advanced nearly 1.7% to $103 per barrel on Wednesday. Oil prices have remained above the key $100 level for most of March, supported by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint which accounts for a fifth of global crude oil passage.Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also witnessed a similar upward movement. MCX crude oil prices opened 1.34% higher at ₹9,697 per barrel on Wednesday.Trump told reporters that the US could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, adding that while a deal with Tehran could be reached, it may not be essential to bring the conflict to an end.He has repeatedly shifted his stance, at times suggesting an agreement with Iran is close, while also warning of an escalation in military action. The president is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday to share an update on the situation, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, as quoted by Bloomberg.Even if the conflict ends within the indicated timeline, restoring normal movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz could take time, especially as some energy infrastructure has been damaged, which could keep oil prices higher. Meanwhile, a third US aircraft carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East, keeping marketsThe US President was quoted as saying by Bloomberg that the key military objectives had largely been achieved and that the US would withdraw once Tehran was no longer capable of acquiring nuclear weapons. He also claimed the current regime was an improvement over the previous leadership. In a social media post on Tuesday, Trump urged allies to take control of the Strait of Hormuz.According to The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates has called on the US, along with European and Asian military powers, to form a coalition to forcibly reopen the strait, citing a UAE official.Meanwhile, China and Pakistan jointly called for an immediate ceasefire on Tuesday and stressed the need to ensure safe passage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The appeal was part of a five-point proposal aimed at restoring peace and stability in the Gulf and the broader Middle East, following talks between the two countries’ foreign ministers. Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, believes that a key concern for oil markets lies in the diminishing buffer provided by strategic petroleum reserve releases by the US and its allies, which have thus far helped contain price volatility.“With Trump's April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait now days away and these reserves expected to run thin by mid-April, the absence of a resolution could expose the market to a sharper supply shock,” Chainwala said.She further noted that current prices reflect cautious optimism around a potential diplomatic breakthrough, the combination of military escalation, unresolved core disagreements, and a narrowing policy buffer continues to sustain elevated uncertainty and upside risks in global oil markets.Meanwhile, Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst at Choice Broking, said that Iran’s conditional openness toward ending the conflict and discussions around a potential U.S. exit eased immediate supply fears, while improving vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz further limited upside momentum.
Oil Falls to $111 as Trump Signals Iran Conflict Halt | EasternEye -- Oil price movements turned volatile on March 31, with crude slipping after reports suggested the US may be open to easing its military stance in the Iran conflict. The shift, even if tentative, has started to cool what had been an aggressive rally driven by fears of supply disruption. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $1.22 (£0.97) to $111.56 (£89.00) a barrel, reversing earlier gains of around 2 per cent during the session. The more actively traded June contract hovered lower at $105.76 (£84.20). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also dropped, down 98 cents (£0.78) to $101.90 (£81.20) a barrel, after earlier touching its highest level since March 9. The pullback comes even as oil price volatility, Strait of Hormuz disruption and global supply concerns continue to dominate market sentiment.The shift in prices appears to follow remarks linked to Donald Trump, who has reportedly told aides he is open to ending US operations against Iran without immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The idea, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, suggests a possible attempt to de-escalate without forcing a quick resolution on the critical shipping route.That stands in contrast to his earlier warning on March 30, where he said the US would “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if the strait remained closed. The mixed messaging has left traders second-guessing the next move.Market watchers are also weighing how serious this potential shift is. Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, as quoted in a news report, said that the US appetite for a prolonged, large-scale conflict appears limited, describing recent threats as part of an effort to push negotiations forward rather than escalate fully.Even with signs of a softer stance, the risks around supply have not gone anywhere. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — which typically carries about one-fifth of global oil supply — continues to cast a long shadow over markets.The situation on the ground remains tense. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said its fully loaded tanker Al Salmi, carrying up to 2 million barrels, was struck in an alleged attack near Dubai port. Authorities later confirmed the fire had been contained, but concerns over potential oil spills linger.There are also fresh worries around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi forces launched missile strikes towards Israel. The route is a key link between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, making it vital for trade moving through the Suez Canal.Analysts say these overlapping flashpoints are keeping a floor under prices, even as short-term sentiment shifts. Ben Emons of Fed Watch Advisors reportedly said that the situation reflects a more “asymmetric” dynamic, with the US leaning towards an exit while Iran remains positioned to impose costs on global energy flows.Despite the dip, the broader trend remains striking. Brent crude has surged around 59 per cent over March, marking its strongest monthly gain on record, while WTI is up 58 per cent, its biggest rise since May 2020.For now, oil markets seem caught between two forces — signs of possible de-escalation on one side, and persistent threats to supply on the other. Which one takes the lead could decide whether prices cool further or resume their upward climb.
WTI Dips After Big Crude Inventory Build, US Production Slows - Oil prices are down overnight but playing headline roulette with every word that comes out of any leaders' (or non-leaders') mouth as ceasefire chatter (now denied) has WTI riding a roller-coaster (but below $100 once again as we write). “Flows and actions matter more than words,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. And while inventory data may not be the market-moving event in this new regime, it is useful to see signs of stockpiling or demand. DOE:
- Crude +5.45mm (+10.3mm API, +2mm exp)
- Cushing +520k
- Gasoline -586k
- Distillates -2.11mm
A sizable crude build (the sixth weekly rise in total US crude stocks in a row) was mirrored by the seventh weekly drawdown in gasoline stocks... Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, also rose for the sixth consecutive week. A 520,000-barre- build takes inventories at the storage hub to the highest level since July 2024. Stockpiles at Cushing are now firmly above 30 million barrels. Stocks for all transport fuels in the US dropped this week with diesel falling 2 million barrels to the lowest level since mid-March. That fuel, alongside jet, is in the spotlight as the Iran war has had an outsized impact on the price of those fuels compared with gasoline. Interestingly, US crude production slipped lower again last week. Refinery crude runs fell for the first time in five weeks. Despite the drop, they remain at a multi-year seasonal high. Oil prices dipped after the data... The surge in market volatility has made intraday trading choppier, with many traders having to curb position sizes.
WTI, June Brent crude futures settle down on reports that Iran may be ready to end war (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said that the U.S. would end its war on Iran fairly soon. The front-month Brent contract for June fell $2.81, or 2.7%, to settle at $101.16 per barrel, bouncing off a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.26, or around 1.2%, to $100.12 per barrel, off a session low of $96.50. Trump, who plans to deliver a speech later in the day, told Reuters that the U.S. has ensured that Iran will not have nuclear arms and is ready to get out of the war "pretty quickly." On Tuesday, he signaled that the U.S. could wind down the war in two to three weeks even without a deal, remarks that sent oil prices down more than $3 a barrel in that trading session. Market participants are betting that Trump will not allow oil supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war to extend into mid-May, when U.S. gasoline demand is typically at its strongest, SEB analysts said. "The risk to U.S. gasoline prices, consumer sentiment and ultimately the November midterm elections makes a prolonged conflict politically costly," they said. In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said Iran had asked for a ceasefire, but he will consider it only after Tehran stops blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied that it made any such request. Iran has stopped vessels from crossing the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on the country at the end of February. This disrupted Middle Eastern oil exports and drove fuel prices higher globally. Analysts expect that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be slow to return to levels before the conflict even if a ceasefire is announced. "Odds appear to lean in the direction of a U.S. Iranian war exit but ... the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain and much deserving of some geo-risk premium even if global oil supplies slowly begin to loosen," Oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will increase in April and will hit Europe as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits exports further, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said on Wednesday. Illustrating the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped by 7.5 million barrels per day in March from the previous month, as producers were forced to cut output because storage is full. In January, U.S. crude oil output fell by the most in two years, after a severe winter storm knocked production offline, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia could raise its May official selling prices for crude to Asia to record levels, after Middle Eastern oil became the most expensive globally, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.
Oil Spikes As Trump Vows To Hit Iran "Extremely Hard Over Next 2-3 Weeks", Threatens To Send It "Back To The Stone Ages" (3 hour video, Trump speech at 1:53:30) After 48 hours of messaging triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a shortened timeline for reduced US involvement... President Trump addressed the nation tonight about the war in Iran. Summary:
- Trump declares 'core strategic objectives met', threatens 2-3 more weeks of bombing, no mention of ceasefire
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”
- Air defenses have been activated in Dubai, taking out 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran
- Iran's new Ayatollah tweets "I emphatically declare that the consistent policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, following on the path of Imam Khomeini and the martyred Leader, is to continue supporting the Resistance against the Zionist-US enemy."
- "Not true": Iran rejects Trump claim that the "new regime president" asked for ceasefire (which has been Pezeshkian since 2024)
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump to Reuters: will be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if needed. Also says he's open to exiting 'paper tiger' NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with "full intensity and power" - suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
Oil had been selling off heading into Trump's address, with traders looking for clearer signals on whether Washington will end the war in the coming weeks, but started to rally strongly as Trump began speaking as traders did not hear the 'mission accomplished' they were hoping for, erasing all of yesterday's ceasefire chatter... Not what many were expecting... " In a triumph of hope against experience, some oil traders had been looking for clarity from Trump’s speech. He has provided no direction, repeating past comments and mixing bravado and threats with the prospect of an imminent end. That has pushed Brent and WTI higher," said Bloomberg's Clara Ferreira Marques.. For crude traders, producers and users, the main takeaway from Trump’s remarks is that the global oil-supply crunch triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is probably set to persist through April. Each day the waterway’s been shuttered has translated into the loss of about 11 million barrels, according to an earlier Bloomberg tally.
Oil jumps 5% to cross $106/barrel after Trump's comments erase de-escalation hopes -- Oil prices soared around up to 5% to jump back above $106 per barrel on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation retriggered worries about heightened conflict in the Middle East, despite hopes for de-escalation yesterday that had briefly cooled down the rally in oil prices to drop below $100 per barrel. Brent crude futures surged nearly 5% to trade at $106 per barrel. WTI Crude, meanwhile, gained more than 4% to $104 per barrel in the early morning hours of Thursday. Oil prices crossed the crucial $100 mark in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Front-month Brent futures hit a record monthly gain of 64% in March, Reuters cited LSEG data dating back to June 1988.
Trump said that US forces will 'finish the job' in Iran soon as “core strategic objectives are nearing completion”. "We're now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help," he said. "We don't have to be there. We don't need their oil. We don't need anything they have. But we are there to help our allies,” he added.He reiterated his claim that Iran’s “navy is gone, their air force is in ruins” and Tehran’s leaders are all dead. He claimed that joint strikes had "obliterated" the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, and “if we see them make a move, even a move for it, we will hit them with missiles very hard again”. The US President claimed that Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed.His comments suggesting that the US might attempt to wrap up the war within the next two-three weeks may have spurred investor worries about heightened attacks on Iranian power and crude facilities, unless some deal is achieved, said Garima Kapoor Deputy Head of Research and Economist at Elara Capital. “The focus of the US has moved away from regime change and opening of Hormuz. We believe, as US Iran escalation ends, the cost of insuring vessels passing through Hormuz would come down too, allowing gradual movement of energy to resume in Hormuz.,” she added.“Uncertainty will prevail in the near term with crude oil prices remaining firm, even as hopes have been offered for closure or war within next 2 to 3 weeks. So far Iran doesn't seem to be buckling under any pressure of America, but America's degrees of freedom are reducing, suggesting limited ability to continue longer. We see a finality to war soon. Heightened Volatility is likely to persist in the short term,” she further said.Even if the war eases in the near-term, oil prices may not cool down soon. Ambit Institutional Equities, in it recentreport, said that even if geopolitical tensions cool off, oil prices will remain elevated, with $80 being the new normal for Brent due to infrastructure damage, geopolitical risk premiums, and inventory restocking.
US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices settled more than 11% higher and Brent soared nearly 8% on Thursday in volatile trading, as traders worried about prolonged disruptions to oil supply the day after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue attacks on Iran. Brent crude futures closed $7.87, or 7.78%, higher at $109.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $11.42, or 11.41%, at $111.54 per barrel, settling at their biggest absolute price rise since 2020. Both benchmarks remained below highs near $120 a barrel touched earlier in the conflict. Trump said military operations would be intensified, but did not specify a timeline for ending hostilities. He gave no details on any steps that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz "We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks," Trump said. "We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong." Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic in the strait, an Iranian foreign ministry official said, after a Bloomberg report. Iran has effectively shut down the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped, in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Reopening it has become a priority for governments around the world as energy prices soar. "The real question on traders' minds is that if Iran's oil infrastructure is possibly now at risk, and with more damage in the area now very likely, even if left intact the restart of oil flows in the region (is) now looking to be delayed further," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. WTI, which typically trades below Brent, was pricing nearly $3 over Brent as the U.S. contract was trading for May deliveries, while the Brent contract was trading for June deliveries. WTI's premium over the global benchmark was the highest in a year. "Market's expectation is that if (the) Strait of Hormuz opens up in (a) couple of weeks this risk premium will immediately go down," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday that a swift war resolution may mean economic impact could be pretty moderate, adding that the economic outlook was uncertain due to the crisis. The United States has some buffers to impacts from the war, Logan said. Brent crude prices could average $95 a barrel in the base case and $130 a barrel in the bull case in the second half of the year, Citi said, while oil prices could climb to between $120 and $130 a barrel in the near-term, JP Morgan said. Prices could rise above $150 if the Strait remains closed into the middle of May, JP Morgan added. U.S. oil rigs, an indicator of future output, rose by two to 411 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. An increase in prices for oil to be delivered in future months has producers considering adding more rigs, but they have cautioned that they would like to see the higher prices hold for longer to do so. Front-month WTI traded at its largest-ever premium over the second-month and seventh-month contract on Thursday. Britain is hosting a virtual meeting of around 40 countries to discuss options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not due to attend. OPEC+, meanwhile, is likely to weigh a further oil output increase on Sunday, sources said. This would position members to add more barrels should the Strait of Hormuz reopen but is not likely to meaningfully increase supply before then. In Russia, Ukraine's strikes on port infrastructure, pipelines and refineries have reduced export capability by 1 million barrels per day, or a fifth of total capacity, sources say, enough to set the stage for imminent production cuts. The head of the International Energy Agency also said that supply disruptions would start to affect Europe's economy in April, after the region had previously been shielded by cargoes contracted before the start of the war.
Oil Prices Just Added $11.42 a Barrel, One of Their Biggest Daily Gains Ever - WSJ-- U.S. oil futures notched their biggest daily gain since they were climbing back from the Covid crash six years ago to close out a whiplash, holiday-shortened week at $111.54 a barrel. Benchmark oil futures are now up 66% since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran at the end of February. In dollar terms, prices in March rose by $43.96 a barrel, more than in any other month since West Texas Intermediate futures began trading in 1983. In two trading sessions so far in April, they have added another $10.16 a barrel.Energy futures trading is closed tomorrow for Good Friday along with the stock market. Futures will resume trading at 6 p.m. Sunday. Oil executives and analysts say that futures prices need to climb further before they reflect how expensive actual barrels of crude have become. Some spot market prices around the world are at their highest since 2008, when U.S. futures hit their all-time high of $145.29. That would be around $215 a barrel in today’s dollars. Prices had declined during the two trading sessions leading up to President Trump’s primetime address Wednesday night, when he dashed the hopes for a prompt end to the Iran war that had been coursing through markets. Trump vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.” Thursday’s $11.42-a-barrel climb was only the third time prompt-month oil futures have ever added more $10 or more in a single session. One was the anomalous $47.64 daily bounce back from negative territory during 2020’s Covid lockdown. The other two instances—$16.37 and $10.75—were on the way to the 2008 peak. Thursday’s historically sharp move has traders pondering another opportunity for what has been dubbed on Wall Street as the “TACO trade,” short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” “Some conciliatory gestures from Trump would appear likely over the upcoming holiday weekend,” trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “A deadline of next Monday has been set by the White House prior to an escalation of U.S. bombing activity and we expect another delay in this deadline as the TACO phenomenon continues to play out.”
Brent oil spot price for actual cargo soars to $141, highest level since 2008 financial crisis -- The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global, which tracks the data. The spot price reflects the demand for Brent oil that will be delivered in the next 10 to 30 days. The high price for more immediate oil deliveries points to the tightness of physical supply right now due to the huge disruption trigged by the Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The price was $32.33 higher than the Brent crude futures contract for June delivery, which closed at $109.03 on Thursday. The futures price is “almost giving a false sense of security that things are not that stressed,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, in an interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange.” “You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up,” Sen said. The price for a barrel of diesel in Europe is almost $200 per barrel right now, she said. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned last week that the futures price is not reflecting the scale of the oil supply disruption to the closure of the Strait. Wirth said the market is trading on “scant information” and “perception.”“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves on oil,” Wirth said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston on March 23.
Tankers Seized By US Carried 20 Million Barrels Of Iranian Crude To China -- Nine tankers seized by the US since it began taking direct action against the so-called shadow fleet that transport illicit oil around the world have delivered more than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude to China since 2013, according to the WSJ. The figures form part of a new report that provides an insight into the level of support China has given Iran by buying its sanctioned oil. Between 2013 and 2025, these nine vessels delivered 20.3 million barrels of Iranian crude to Chinese ports, the report said, citing data from Kpler. The vessels also carried 37.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and 11.1 million barrels of Russian crude to Chinese ports. U.S. forces taking control of an oil tanker in the Indian Ocean Altogether, that crude is worth at least $4 billion, according to the report, which is set to be released soon by Republicans on the House Select Committee on China, and seen by The Wall Street Journal. To be sure, the amount from the seized vessels represents just a small fraction of the oil China has imported from Iran, a process which has accelerated since the Iran was started, lifting Iran's output to the highest in years. Still, it underscores how China has been a major user of the shadow fleet, bankrolling Iran, as well as Venezuela and Russia. In 2025, China received a third of the crude oil carried by shadow and sanctioned tankers and 10% of heavy refined products such as fuel oil and crude residuals, the report said, citing Kpler data. Shadow fleet vessels carrying sanctioned cargo have also used China’s BeiDou satellite navigation in an effort to operate outside Western oversight, the report said. BeiDou is Beijing’s answer to the U.S. Global Positioning System, or GPS, and offers positioning, navigation and timing data globally. China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Kuwaiti loaded oil tanker ablaze in Dubai Port after Iranian attack, no casualties - Iran attacked a fully-loaded crude oil tanker at Dubai Port's anchorage on Monday (Mar 30), setting it ablaze and damaging its hull, Kuwait's state news agency reported, citing Kuwait Petroleum Corp, which warned of a possible oil spill. The apparent strike is just the latest in a string of assaults on merchant vessels by missiles or explosive air and sea drones in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb 28. US crude futures rose more than US$3 or 2.9 per cent to US$105.91 a barrel on news that the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi tanker had been attacked. Authorities in Dubai confirmed they were responding to a drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters and that maritime firefighting teams were working to bring the fire under control. No injuries have been reported, and the safety of all 24 crew members has been secured, they said. Work is underway to accurately assess damage to the tanker, said KPC, which according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data is the parent company of the vessel's registered owner and commercial operator. Iranian officials could not be immediately reached for comment. Earlier on Monday, a Greek-owned container ship located off the coast of Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura reported two separate incidents where projectiles hit water near the vessel, maritime security experts said. A representative from the Liberian-flagged Express Rome reported two unknown projectiles splashing into the water near the container ship approximately 40.7km northeast of Ras Tanura at 1.52pm GMT (9.52pm, Singapore time). The incidents occurred within one hour of each other and the crew was reported safe, British maritime risk-management group Vanguard said. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously claimed to have attacked the Express Rome on Mar 11, Vanguard said. The operator of Express Rome did not immediately comment. No group has claimed responsibility for the strike on the oil tanker or the projectiles.
Kuwaiti oil tanker was hit in Iranian attack at Dubai port, alerts raised for possible oil spill -Authorities in Dubai confirmed they were responding to a drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters and that maritime firefighting teams were working to bring the fire under control. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said a giant Kuwaiti crude oil tanker, Al Salmi, was directly targeted in what it described as an Iranian attack while anchored at Dubai port in the United Arab Emirates, causing damage to the vessel and a fire onboard, the state news agency KUNA said on Tuesday. The corporation said the tanker was fully loaded at the time of the incident and warned of a possible oil spill in the surrounding waters, adding that no casualties were reported and that an assessment of the damage was underway, KUNA added. Authorities in Dubai confirmed they were responding to a drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters and that maritime firefighting teams were working to bring the fire under control. No injuries have been reported, and the safety of all 24 crew members has been secured, they said. Work is underway to accurately assess damage to the tanker, said KPC, which, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data, is the parent company of the vessel's registered owner and commercial operator. Iranian officials could not be immediately reached for comment. Authorities in the UAE's Sharjah region said on Monday that an administrative building belonging to Thuraya Telecommunications was targeted by a drone from Iran, the emirate's media office shared in a post on X/Twitter. No injuries were reported in the attack. The post came after earlier warnings from the UAE Defense Ministry that the emirate's air defenses were actively engaged in interception activities. According to the ministry's previous post, the overall attack involved both missiles and drones. Earlier on Monday, the UAE Defense Ministry shared an overview of Iranian missiles and drones engaged by air defenses that same day. The post additionally included a total count of Iranian missiles, drones, and cruise missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses thus far in the Iran war. Gulf states faced multiple drone and missile attacks on Saturday, targeting critical infrastructure in Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE. On Saturday, a drone landed in Iraq's Majnoon oil field, but did not explode, according to the country's Defense Ministry. Also on Saturday, Kuwait International Airport was subjected to several drone attacks, according to KUNA. In addition, six people were injured on Saturday after three fires broke out in Abu Dhabi as a result of debris falling from a ballistic missile interception, the emirate's media office said.
Haifa refinery hit in latest Iranian missile barrage | The Jerusalem Post --An impact was reported in Haifa during the latest Iranian missile barrage on Israel on Monday, with initial indications pointing to a strike or falling debris in the city’s industrial zone.The impact area included infrastructure at the Bazan oil refinery, the company confirmed, which has been targeted in previous attacks.In earlier barrages, missile shrapnel struck the facility, causing localized damage and temporary power disruptions, though no casualties were reported."Search and rescue forces, both reserve and regular forces, are on their way to a site in northern Israel where reports of impact have been received," the IDF said in a statement. Fire rises from the Bazan power plant in the northern Israeli city of Haifa, June 15, 2025. The Environmental Protection Ministry told Ma'ariv that a gasoline tank is burning in the refinery complex, producing thick smoke, but with no risk to the population in the area from a hazardous materials incident.The Haifa municipality later confirmed that there was no suspicion of hazardous materials in the area, and no danger to the public.Residents near the complex were asked to close windows in their homes and not stay outside. On Sunday, an Iranian missile impacted in the industrial zone of Ne'ot Hovav, starting a fire and potentially causing a leak of hazardous chemicals.The Environmental Protection Ministry stated that the possibility of hazardous chemicals leaking was being investigated, but that at this stage, there was no expected risk to nearby towns in the Ramat Negev Regional Council. Israeli media reported that one person was lightly wounded by the shockwave.
US helicopter shot down while searching for pilot shot down in Iran (inconclusive video) 2 US helicopters were hit by Iranian fire while participating in a search operation for a fighter pilot shot down on April 3 (US time).
Yemenis stage massive march in solidarity with Iran, regional resistance amid US-Israeli aggression - The Yemeni capital, Sana’a, once again witnessed a million-man march in solidarity with Iran and the regional resistance against ongoing US-Israeli aggression. On Friday, massive crowds gathered in al-Sabeen Square, waving Iranian, Yemeni, Palestinian, Iraqi, and Lebanese flags. Demonstrators chanted slogans condemning US and Israeli warmongering and aggressive policies across the region. The protesters held banners and placards that read: “One axis, one front in the face of American-Israeli tyranny.” They hailed the Iranian armed forces’ ongoing operations, which have inflicted heavy losses on US military bases in the region and inside Israeli-occupied territories. “The Muslim Iranian people will not submit to the criminal Trump,” the demonstrators chanted. “From Sana’a to Tehran, one front like a solid structure.” They called for the continuation of these qualitative operations against US-Israeli forces until victory is achieved. The demonstrators emphasized that the Axis of Resistance, backed by Iranian support, has foiled the so-called “Greater Israel” project in West Asia. “With the steadfastness of the Iranian people, the satanic project has failed,” they said, adding, “The Greater Israel project is thwarted by the fronts of the Axis.”
Chechen Fighters ‘Ready to Deploy’ to Iran – What We Know - Palestine Chronicle - Chechen military units have announced their readiness to deploy to Iran to support the country’s armed forces in the event of a US ground invasion, Press TV reported on Monday. According to the report, the forces—loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—would intervene if US ground operations are launched against Iran. The development comes as tensions continue to rise following weeks of sustained US and Israeli military operations targeting Iranian territory. The Chechen units described the ongoing confrontation as a “religious war,” Press TV reported, portraying it as a struggle between opposing moral forces. They said that any direct intervention would constitute a “jihad,” defining it as a battle of “good versus evil” in defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This framing reflects how the forces themselves characterize their potential role, combining military positioning with ideological language. The reports come amid growing indications that the United States is considering a ground offensive after weeks of aerial operations. The war began on February 28 during indirect nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington, with the assassination of Iran’s leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, along with senior military figures and civilians, including more than 170 schoolchildren in Minab. In response, Iranian armed forces have carried out extensive retaliatory operations.
Iran's foreign minister calls on Saudi Arabia to 'eject U.S. forces' - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that the Saudi Arabian government should “eject” U.S. troops from its country, three days after the Iranian military attacked a U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia. “Iran respects the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and considers it a brotherly nation,” Araghchi wrote on the social platform X. “Our operations are aimed at enemy aggressors who have no respect for Arabs or Iranians, nor can provide any security. “Just look at what we did to their aerial command. High time to eject U.S. forces.” In his post, Araghchi also shared a photo of a U.S. Air Force E-3 Sentry with its tail broken off and its radar dome on the ground. Multiple outlets previously reported that the aircraft was destroyed in the attack. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have a longstanding partnership dating back more than eight decades. There are five U.S. military bases in the oil-rich country, according to Militarybases.com, and roughly 2,700 service members there, according to NewsNation. On Friday, an Iranian missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, injured 12 U.S. service members, according to The Wall Street Journal. The paper reported that two service members suffered significant injuries, while 10 were concussed. The attack also damaged multiple U.S. refueling aircraft, and several unmanned aerial vehicles were hit, the Journal added. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News on Saturday that Russian forces took satellite images of the air base three times in the days before Iran attacked the site. “I think that it’s in Russia’s interest to help Iranians,” he said. “And I don’t believe — I know — that they share information. Do they help Iranians? Of course. How many percent? One-hundred percent.” A spokesperson for the Pentagon told The Hill on Sunday that they could not comment on intelligence matters.
Aluminum Supply Shock: Top Gulf Producer Halts Operations After Iran Strike, Price To Spike - Over the weekend, both Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) - the largest aluminum producers in the Gulf - and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) reported drone attacks damaging smelting facilities after hits on Iranian steel infrastructure last week. Neither company (at the time) confirmed whether supply will be impacted, but this morning the worst case appears to be confirmed with Reuters reporting that according to a Wednesday note by consultancy Wood Mackenzie "EGA's Al Taweelah facility in the United Arab Emirates halted operations after an Iranian missile and drone attack on Saturday damaged a power plant." A subsequent report from Bloomberg confirmed the report, writing that "Emirates Global Aluminium, the Middle East’s top producer of the metal, halted operations at its Al Taweelah smelter after the site was struck by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the matter." At the same time, the smelter belonging to Aluminium Bahrain – Alba – which was also targeted on Saturday, “sustained significant damages and is expected to operate at an estimated utilisation of 30 percent”, Wood Mackenzie said. “The ongoing Middle East conflict is triggering a critical supply crisis in the global aluminium market, with disruptions potentially removing 3 to 3.5 million tonnes of output in 2026,” Wood Mackenzie said. For context, the world produced just under 74 million tonnes of primary aluminum last year. Wood Mackenzie’s press office said its information was sourced from the consultancy’s contacts in the Middle East, but declined to provide further details. As a reminder, the aluminum smelter in Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, has a capacity of roughly 1.5 million metric tonnes per year, and an alumina refinery. Alba’s capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per year in Bahrain makes it the world’s biggest single-site aluminium smelter. The Middle East as a whole produces about 9% of global supply, with EGA and others playing a key role in supplying manufacturers across Europe, Asia and the US. Even before the industry was directly targeted, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had already left the region’s major producers short of critical inputs, with the sector anticipating a cascading wave of production cuts unless the strait reopens soon. As Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch writes, it's "hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide." This is how the Goldman trader does the math on lost output: Lost ALBA 1mm + EGA 1.6mm + Qatalam 0.3mm + Mozal 0.6mm = 3.5m on a 74mt mkt = 4.7% impact to supply, and 7.7% of ex china supply Balance this with Oil price demand destruction ~1mm, assume China overproduce and ship 500k - need to price demand destruction to balance ~2mt (inventory we see at ~1.5mt but majority of that is China link). McGeoch says that in light of the shut downs, some traders have been eyeballing a significant surge in the aluminum price to $4500 (15% premium to LME for China is a clear starting point).
Iran puts Europe on notice with ‘game-changer’ Diego Garcia missile incident - Iran’s firing of two missiles toward the joint U.S.-U.K. base in the Indian Ocean is putting Europe on notice that Tehran appears able to levy attacks previously considered beyond its reach. In the March 20 incident, one intermediate-range ballistic missile fell into the water and the other was shot at. Still, while unsuccessful, it attests to a long-held belief by national security officials that Iran’s agreement to the self-imposed range ceiling of 1,240 miles on its missiles is a political, not a technical cap and that Tehran could pose a danger far beyond its borders. Analysts said it should force Western officials to rethink some of the underlying assumptions about Iran’s missile threat and how far Tehran could reach if left unchallenged. “While America has been defanging its missile program, an entirely new missile has been, in essence, revealed, and that is a game changer,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Iran Program. He noted that Europe would be in striking distance “if Iran even develops an IRBM, an intermediate range ballistic missile, rather than an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is what the regime would need to target the U.S. homeland.” Nicholas Carl, a fellow with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said in a recent interview that “we now need to, I think, rethink some of the underlying assumptions people have long had about the Iranian missile threat and where Iran could plausibly reach.” Hudson Institute senior fellow Can Kasapoğlu said Iran has for years maintained the “convenient fiction” that its missiles had a self-directed range of 1,240 miles, serving its diplomatic interests while “masking the true pace of its development” program. “That fiction is now operationally obsolete. A strike profile extending into the Indian Ocean demonstrates not merely extended range, but Iran’s deliberate abandonment of strategic ambiguity,” Kasapoğlu wrote in his analysis. “Iran is no longer signaling restraint. It is signaling reach, and doing so under live warfighting conditions.”
Did Iran Shut Down Ukraine’s Gulf Role in a Single Blow? – Analysis - Palestine Chronicle - Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia on March 26 as part of a multi-country Gulf tour aimed at securing military and economic support at a time of growing pressure on Ukraine’s war effort. A defense cooperation agreement with Riyadh followed on March 27, marking the beginning of a series of deals focused on long-term military coordination, technology sharing, and energy support. By March 28, Zelensky had moved to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, where additional agreements were announced. These included cooperation on missile defense systems, drone warfare, and broader security coordination, alongside efforts to secure fuel supplies critical for Ukraine’s military operations. On March 29, Zelensky arrived in Jordan for “important security talks,” confirming that the visit was part of a broader regional push rather than a symbolic stop, as reported by Reuters. The visit was driven by urgency, as Ukraine faces sustained battlefield pressure and increasing uncertainty over Western military aid. Kyiv has therefore sought to diversify its partnerships, turning to Gulf states that can provide both financial backing and strategic flexibility. Zelensky framed the agreements as long-term partnerships centered on joint defense production, counter-drone systems, and air-defense capabilities. Ukraine also offered its expertise in intercepting drones and missiles—experience gained through years of war with Russia—while securing diesel supplies essential for both military and economic stability. At a deeper level, this outreach reflected Ukraine’s attempt to reposition itself within a changing geopolitical landscape, where regional wars are increasingly interconnected and technological expertise has become a form of currency. It was in this context that a dramatic claim emerged. On March 28, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had destroyed a Ukrainian anti-drone or air-defense depot in Dubai, stating that the facility was linked to US military operations. The timing raised immediate questions, as the claim surfaced within hours of Zelensky’s presence in the UAE becoming public. Ukraine rejected the allegation outright, with its Foreign Ministry stating: “This is a lie. We officially refute this information,” describing it as part of a broader pattern of disinformation, as cited by The Kyiv Independent. The wider geopolitical context makes the episode more significant. The Washington Post had recently reported, citing officials familiar with the intelligence, that Russia has been providing Iran with targeting information, including the locations of US warships and aircraft in the region. Zelensky stated that Ukraine has “irrefutable evidence” that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran, a claim reported by Reuters on March 25, 2026. The assertion points to a deepening level of coordination between Moscow and Tehran that extends beyond previously known military cooperation. He also suggested that this intelligence-sharing should be understood within the broader context of Russia’s response to Western military support for Ukraine, indicating that Moscow is adjusting its strategic posture accordingly, though without framing it as a direct or explicit conditional exchange. This development does not exist in isolation. Iran has been a crucial partner for Russia throughout the Ukraine war, particularly through the supply of Shahed drones, which have played a significant role in Russia’s aerial campaign. That earlier phase of cooperation now appears to be evolving into a more reciprocal arrangement. What was once a one-directional flow of military support—from Tehran to Moscow—now increasingly appears to operate in both directions, with Russia potentially offering intelligence and strategic advantages in return.
Russian LNG ship attack, Ukraine warned of loss of control --The attack targeting the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz in the Mediterranean Sea on March 3, 2026 is raising new concerns about the risk of escalating conflict, as a European military expert assessed that Ukraine's actions show signs of "becoming out of control" by the West. Speaking to TASS news agency on April 4 in Geneva, Mr. Ralph Bosshard - former Lieutenant Colonel of the Swiss army and former military advisor to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe - said that the attack on the Arctic Metagaz ship is a sign that the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is acting in an increasingly uncontrollable direction.According to Mr. Bosshard, what is noteworthy is not only the incident itself, but also the "inexplicably silent" reaction of the Western media. He commented that the lack of public analysis or criticism may reflect the confusion in the approach of European countries to new developments.This expert believes that in the context of global oil and gas supplies being under great pressure, expanding attacks targeting energy tankers is a risky step.He emphasized that even the US has been forced to ease some restrictions, allowing Russian oil to continue flowing to markets such as Cuba to avoid supply disruptions.For Europe as a whole, the Kiev government is gradually becoming like an'unguided bullet' - which could cause unexpected consequences," Bosshard warned. He used the image of a "loose cannon" on the deck - when uncontrolled - that could damage everything around it, to describe the risk of widespread military action today.The incident also raises questions about the limits of the strategy of attacking energy infrastructure and sea transport - a direction that is said to be able to have a direct impact on the global economy. The Mediterranean is an important shipping route, where large volumes of oil and gas and goods circulate between Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.If attacks on merchant ships continue to increase, the risk will not stop at regional conflict. According to Mr. Bosshard, the worst-case scenario is that European countries - which are playing a supporting role in Ukraine - may be dragged deeper into a spiral of tension, even facing direct security risks.In the event of the conflict expanding throughout Europe, Kiev may unintentionally turn its back on many countries," he said, while warning of the risk of forming a large-scale confrontation related to international maritime security.There is not yet much detailed information widely announced about the attack on the Arctic Metagaz ship, but this event is being closely monitored by analysts.
EU confused by Ukraine's decision on the Druzhba oil pipeline --The European Union (EU) called Ukraine's decision to temporarily suspend the inspection of the Druzhba oil pipeline "incomprehensible".Euractiv quoted an EU diplomat as saying: "We do not have a clear picture of Ukraine's calculations on this issue".Some other diplomats believe that Kiev's efforts to prevent the inspection of this oil pipeline are "unwise" and "unclear". According to Euractiv, an EU delegation coordinated by the European Commission has been present in Ukraine for weeks, waiting for Kiev to allow access to the territory to inspect the damaged pipeline.If Druzhba is reopened, all parties benefit" - a diplomat noted.Ukraine has stopped the transit of Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary since January 27. The Slovak government has declared a state of emergency related to oil supplies. By March 28, the Slovak Prime Minister threatened to block new EU sanctions against Russia if oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline have not been restored.Previously, on March 19, the European Commission sent a delegation to Ukraine to inspect the pipeline, but experts from Hungary and Slovakia were not allowed to participate.In developments related to Druzhba, on March 31, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that the European Commission should stop politicizing the Druzhba pipeline issue. I want to ask why they don't reopen the Druzhba pipeline? That's unreasonable, because we have a simple way to ensure adequate oil supplies for Europe. This oil will help stabilize the situation not only in Slovakia and Hungary, the countries most heavily affected by supply disruptions, but also throughout Central Europe. I once again call on the European Commission to end the political games" - Mr. Fico said after consultations between the Slovak and Czech governments.The head of the Slovak government also called on the European Commission to "stop pretending to be powerless" in persuading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to allow the expert group to access the Druzhba pipeline to restore the operation of the pipeline.Mr. Fico said that the European Commission "should not prioritize the interests of non-EU member states".According to him, the Slovak-Czech intergovernmental consultations have particularly focused on energy security issues in Central Europe. He also emphasized the need to maintain peace and combat illegal immigration.
Iran Relaxes Restrictions on Hormuz Strait - - The Iranian government has allowed a number of foreign vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, with some reports stating that a one-month permit had been granted to certain ships. Once a conduit for much of the world’s oil supply, the strait was effectively closed by Tehran in response to US and Israeli attacks. At least six Bangladeshi cargo ships and two Chinese vessels have reportedly passed through the key waterway this week, while Turkey’s Anadolu news agency noted that a one-month permit was issued for “certain vessels” on Wednesday, though offered few details about the move. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle since Washington and Tel Aviv launched their war on Iran in late February. Though some 129 vessels transited the strait each day between February 1 and 27, daily averages have since dropped by 95%, according to the UN’s Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Of nearly 300 commercial vessels that passed through the waterway between February 28 and March 31, nearly half carried no cargo, Anadolu reported. Just three carried crude oil, while another 32 were transporting other petroleum products and 20 carried liquefied petroleum gas. Around one-fifth of the global oil supply previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz each year, making it one of the world’s most important commercial waterways. The ongoing US-Israeli war has rocked world oil markets, disrupting output and driving major price spikes. However, Tehran has permitted the vessels of some nations to transit the strait. Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that ships from Russia, China, Iraq, India, and Pakistan had been allowed to pass in recent days, while Maritime Executive reported that vessels from Thailand, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and several other countries had “received agreements” to transit the strait. Ships flagged to the Marshall Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, and Liberia have also been permitted to pass, according to tracking data cited by Anadolu. Throughout the war on Iran, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded that the strait be reopened, threatening to bomb Tehran “back to the Stone Age” earlier on Wednesday.Though Trump has also pressured US allies to assist with reopening the waterway, some have pushed back, with France’s deputy defense minister, Alice Rufo, insisting that NATO forces were “not meant to” carry out operations in the Strait of Hormuz, as that “would not respect international law.”“Let me recall what NATO is: it is a military alliance concerned with the security of territories, of the Euro-Atlantic area,” Rufo said on Wednesday.While the United Kingdom has allowed Washington to use some British airbases to launch strikes on Iran, other NATO allies have been more reluctant to get involved in Trump’s war, among them Spain, Italy, and Poland.On Tuesday, Warsaw’s defense chief, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, stated that his country had “no plans” to relocate any Patriot air defense systems to the Middle East to assist the war effort, saying that “Poland’s security is an absolute priority.” The Italian government, meanwhile, has reportedly denied the use of an airbase in Sicily to US forces, while Spain has similarly barred American warplanes from using its bases or airspace to launch attacks on Iran, with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez slamming the war as “dangerous” and “unjustifiable.”
World leaders bypass Trump to tackle Strait of Hormuz crisis -- Countries heavily reliant on the energy exports from the Strait of Hormuz are troubleshooting plans to reopen the critical maritime trade route amid the chaos and uncertainty around the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. The United Kingdom convened 41 countries on Thursday to discuss plans to reopen the Strait, pinning the blame on Iran for holding the global economy “hostage” by hijacking the international shipping route. While not publicly addressed at the meeting, allies are deeply frustrated with Trump, who launched the operation in Iran on Feb. 28 without a plan to keep the Strait open, and without consulting the countries he is now telling to take charge of resolving the crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a hard line against the U.S. war against Iran, rejecting Trump’s pleas to European nations to join offensive operations to open the Strait. “They cannot then complain about not being supported in an operation they decided on their own. It is not our operation,” Macron told reporters on Thursday, on the sidelines of his visit to South Korea. Macron was responding to a question about Trump’s announcement on April 1 that he was preparing for major strikes against Iran. The U.S. president on Thursday said the U.S. has Iran’s bridges and electricity plants on a target list. At the United Nations, Bahrain has authored a United Nations Security Council Resolution to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait, but is facing opposition from veto-wielding China, Reuters reported. The resolution is expected to go to a vote next week. Trump has lashed out against European nations who have rebuffed his requests for assistance, ranging from the petty — taking personal jabs at Macron’s marriage — to the existential, threatening to withdraw the U.S. from NATO.
First Western European Vessel Transits Hormuz Since War Began - A container ship owned by French shipping giant CMA CGM, has just transited the Strait of Hormuz in what appears to be the first vessel linked to Western Europe to have successfully braved the critical chokepoint since the war in the Middle East began.The Malta-flagged CMA CGM Kribi, which openly broadcasts its French ownership, transited the Strait of Hormuz between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, according to vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.Data on MarineTraffic showed that CMA CGM Kribi was in the Oman Gulf as of 12 p.m. CET.The container vessel departed from offshore Dubai toward Iran on Thursday afternoon local time and stuck close to the Iranian coast. The ship moved through the Iranian islands Qeshm and Larak in the Strait of Hormuz and its signal on Friday indicated it was offshore Muscat in the Gulf of Oman. T?he vessel has indeed transited the Strait of Hormuz, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg. French shipping giant CMA CGM, majority-owned by the Saade family, is understood to have coordinated the transit with Iranian maritime authorities, Euronews reported. Approached by reporters from the Financial Times, France's foreign ministry declined to say if France had played a role in facilitating the passage of the CMA CGM Kribi. Iran selectively allows certain ships to transit the world's most critical oil chokepoint, through which 20% of daily global oil and LNG passed before the war. Most vessels that have transited the Strait of Hormuz so far have been bound to India, China, Thailand, Pakistan, and other countries in Asia, and have owners in Asia.
Iran Launches Three Missile Salvos on Tel Aviv, 100+ Injured as War Expands - Palestine Chronicle -- Iran’s armed forces launched a new batch of missiles toward Israel on Wednesday, marking the third such attack within one hour, according to Iranian television. Israeli media reported that a fragmentation missile struck multiple buildings in Tel Aviv, while projectiles caused injuries in nearby Bnei Brak, where at least 14 settlers were wounded, including one in critical condition. Additional reports indicated that explosive missile fragments fell across the Gush Dan area, with loud explosions heard throughout Tel Aviv. According to Israeli admissions, at least 17 sites in and around Tel Aviv were damaged by falling fragmentation projectiles. Ambulance crews were reported to be responding to numerous impact locations across the greater Tel Aviv area. Sirens sounded across large parts of occupied Palestine, from the Galilee in the north to the Negev in the south, reflecting the widening geographic scope of the attacks. Early warnings were also activated in areas including Ben Gurion Airport, the coastal plain, and settlements across the West Bank. Israeli media reported that attacks were also detected from Lebanon, with Hezbollah launching drones toward northern areas, indicating coordinated pressure across multiple fronts. The Israeli Ministry of Health said that 106 people were injured in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of injuries since the start of the war on Iran on February 28 to 6,286. Other figures cited the cumulative number of injuries at 6,638, reflecting discrepancies across official reporting. The missile barrage comes amid one of the most intense phases of the confrontation, with both sides exchanging large-scale attacks. Iranian sources reported that the Revolutionary Guard launched multiple missile salvos within a short period, while earlier statements confirmed the use of suicide drones targeting “strategic and sensitive centers” inside the occupied territories. At the same time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued warnings that American companies involved in information technology, communications, and artificial intelligence could be targeted for their role in “assassinations and espionage operations.” In response, the Israeli army announced it had carried out a wide wave of airstrikes on Tehran, targeting what it described as infrastructure linked to the Iranian state. Iranian media reported explosions across several parts of the capital, including northern, eastern, and central districts, while additional strikes were reported in Isfahan and near Kerman. Air defenses were also reported to have downed an American drone in Khorramabad. The continued exchange of missile strikes, drone attacks, and air raids indicates a sustained escalation, with Iran expanding the scale and frequency of its attacks while Israel intensifies its operations inside Iranian territory. The widening scope of strikes — from Tel Aviv to Tehran — reflects a confrontation that is no longer contained to isolated exchanges, but unfolding as a multi-front regional conflict involving simultaneous pressure from Iran and allied forces.
Yemen’s Houthis Launch Missile Strikes on Israel in Coordination With Iran, Hezbollah - A week after announcing they were entering the ever-growing regional war on the side of Iran, Yemen’s Houthi movement has launched missiles at southern Israel, saying the operation, the third such flurry of missiles, was done in coordination with Iran and Hezbollah. The Houthis firing missiles at Israel is nothing new, but direct coordination with both Iran and Hezbollah, their primary allies in this conflict, suggests deeper cooperation among the factions. The Houthis said the attack had “successfully achieved its objectives.”Israel reported sirens sounded in Sderot, Ashkelon, Beersheba and Dimona, and that their interceptors were activated over a missile fired from Yemen, and later confirmed that the missile was successfully intercepted. The coordination seems to have been primarily the timing of the launch, as Iranian missiles were launched at Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak at the same time, wounding 14, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah fired rockets at the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, announcing it as the start of the “Khaybar 2″ operation in defense of Lebanon. The Houthis had previously targeted the resort city of Eilat with missile strikes, and there were missiles that hit that city, though Israeli media has continued to maintain that all the missiles and drones fired by the Houthis were successfully intercepted, so it’s not clear where the Eilat missile actually came from.While the Houthis retain a substantial number of missiles from the old Yemen government’s arsenal, their primary involvement in the war could be controlling the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the route through the Red Sea leading into the Gulf of Aden which has been suggested as an alternative route for ships since the Strait of Hormuz has been shuttered by Iran since the start of the war.
Yemen Fires Ballistic Missiles as Hezbollah Launches 40+ Rockets - The Yemeni Armed Forces, affiliated with the Ansarallah movement, announced on Wednesday the launch of their third military operation targeting Israel. In a statement, military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the operation involved a salvo of ballistic missiles targeting “sensitive targets” in southern Israel. He stressed that the attack came “in continuation of supporting and backing the fronts of Resistance” and as part of a “religious, moral, and humanitarian duty toward the free people of the Islamic nation in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine.” Saree confirmed that the operation was carried out “in conjunction with the mujahideen brothers in Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon,” adding that it “successfully achieved its objectives.”On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it had detected a missile launch from Yemen at 6:25 am, as sirens sounded across southern areas from Dimona in the Naqab to Asqalan (Ashkelon) on the coast.The Yemeni Armed Forces warned that continued Israeli escalation across the region would be met with further action, stating that “the enemy’s move towards escalating its aggression… will only push the free and proud Yemen toward further escalation in the coming period.”They added that operations will continue until “the aggression stops and the siege is lifted.”The statement also included a broader warning that Yemeni forces are prepared for direct intervention, declaring that “the armed forces’ hands are on the trigger” in the event of further escalation or expanded alliances involving the United States and Israel.Meanwhile, the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah announced on Wednesday the launch of Khaybar 2 operations, marking what it described as a new phase of escalation within its confrontation with Israeli forces.The group said the operations are part of Operation Eaten Straw, carried out “in defense of Lebanon and its people” following intensified Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory. According to Hezbollah statements, eight coordinated operations targeted sites in and around Haifa.The group said it struck the Stella Maris naval monitoring base with rockets, while also targeting the Nasherim base southeast of Haifa using rockets and swarms of drones.Additional strikes hit military-related infrastructure in the Krayot area north of Haifa, as well as the Tefen base east of Akka, using combined rocket and drone attacks.
US-Israeli Strikes in Tehran Damage Orthodox Church -- US-Israeli strikes in Tehran on Wednesday damaged a Russian Orthodox Church, the Russian Embassy in Iran has said, as the bombing campaign continues to have a devastating impact on civilians. “Two missile strikes on the morning of April 1st in the immediate vicinity of St. Nicholas Orthodox Cathedral in Tehran caused damage to the main building and outbuildings (windows and doors were blown out),” the Russian Embassy said in a statement that included photos of the damage.The strike was also recorded by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a US-based, US-funded NGO that’s very critical of the Iranian government.According to The Associated Press, the missile strike appeared to have targeted the nearby former US embassy compound in Tehran, from where the CIA coordinated the 1953 coup in Iran and where the hostage crisis started in 1979 following the Islamic Revolution that ousted the US-backed Shah. Part of the former embassy has been turned into a museum highlighting the US role in the coup, called the Den of Espionage Museum.The Russian Embassy said that a Russian nursing home was also damaged, though there were no casualties in either building. “The adjacent Russian Nursing Home, where elderly residents still live, also sustained significant damage (including a collapsed roof). Thankfully, there were no casualties,” the embassy said.“We note that St. Nicholas Cathedral was damaged during Lent and on the eve of Easter, one of the main religious holidays. Due to the military adventures of the United States and Israel, the Orthodox community in Iran is deprived of the opportunity to visit the cathedral,” the embassy added.
Senior Iranian Official Involved in Attempt at Peace Talks Severely Wounded by US-Israeli Strike - Kamal Kharazi, an 81-year-old advisor to the Iranian government and former Iranian foreign minister, was severely wounded by a US-Israeli strike on his home on Wednesday that killed his wife, Iranian media has reported. Kharazi, chairman of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, was seen as a potential negotiator and, according to Iranian officials speaking to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, he was overseeing engagement with Pakistan for a possible meeting between Iranian officials and Vice President JD Vance.The Iranian officials said they saw the attack on Kharazi’s home as an attempt to derail diplomacy. It’s unclear if the US or Israel launched the strike.While Israel is suspected of being behind the attack since it has an interest in keeping the US in the war, the Trump administration has engaged in deception campaigns when it comes to diplomacy with Iran, and could just be lying about its desire for a deal.President Trump has continued to insist that negotiations have been underway, but Iranian officials continue to deny that talks are taking place, and there’s no evidence of genuine diplomacy. Trump continues to threaten to escalate attacks on Iran and bomb more civilian infrastructure if a deal isn’t reached.
Israel Halts Arms Purchases From France In Rebuke For Iran War Stance - Israel on Tuesday took the drastic step of announcing that it will halt the acquisition of defense-related goods and services from France, according to an Israeli Defense Ministry announcement. "The Director General of the Israel Ministry of Defense. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram has decided to reduce all defense procurement from France to zero, replacing it with domestic Israeli procurement or purchases from allied countries," a Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed.The move is being done in direct rebuke to France's decision to not allow flights in its airspace which transport military items to Israel, or also American military flights which are directly connected to Iran war operations. A growing number of NATO and EU countries are doing this, also Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.The Israeli statement said further, "France has taken a series of actions that have harmed Israel's security and the operational capabilities of its defense industry.""The Israel Ministry of Defense views the French government’s policy with serious concern, as it undermines security cooperation with Israel, a country that is actively operating on the front line against Iran and protecting the security of the Western world," it added.Defense ties between France and Israel were already strained going back to the Gaza war:
Heavy Fighting, Israeli Airstrikes Killed at Least 50 in Lebanon in 24 Hours – Increasingly heavy fighting in the southwest and a growing number of Israeli airstrikes nationwide have caused the death toll in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to surge, rising to at least 50 killed in the last 24 hours. Heavy fighting was reported in several areas along the southwest of the country, with the heaviest fighting reportedly along the coastal highway. Advancing Israeli troops have reportedly exchanged heavy fire with Hezbollah forces in the area. Israeli airstrikes against the capital city of Beirut and surrounding towns killed at least seven, including reportedly a top Hezbollah commander. A drone strike in Mansour killed two and another airstrike against a home in Houmine el-Tahta killed a family of four.The Health Ministry put the overall death toll so far from the war at 1,318, which is 50 higher than their number the day prior. They also added 185 to the wounded number, bringing that total to 3,935 since the war began on March 2. The bulk of Israeli strikes have targeted southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in the east, along with persistent strikes against the Shi’ite suburbs of the capital city of Beirut. Today’s toll points to a similar concentration of the strikes, which have displaced an estimated 1.1 million civilians.Israel’s invasion of Lebanon was launched in the wake of the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, with Hezbollah having fired some rockets at Israel “in solidarity” with the Iranians. Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets at northern Israel throughout the war, and has engaged advancing IDF troops on the ground.
UN condemns killing of Indonesian peacekeepers in Lebanon | Israel attacks Lebanon | Al Jazeera -The UN has condemned the deaths of three Indonesian peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, who were killed by Israel in two separate incidents, including a vehicle explosion. They are the latest UN casualties since Israel expanded its ground invasion.
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Israeli DM Says All of South Lebanon Will Be Occupied, Villages Leveled ‘In Accordance With Gaza’ - - Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has declared that Israel would formally occupy the whole of Lebanese territory south of the Litani River, and will commit to a policy of totally leveling the villages along the border of the occupied territory and northern Israel.Katz had talked up an occupation in everything but name last week, talking of creating a “buffer zone” out of that territory, and saying no Lebanese civilians would be allowed to return to that part of Lebanon.The pretense of a “buffer zone” seems to be fading fast among Israeli officials, with Katz now talking of Israel simply gaining occupational control over the region, and destroying the southernmost villages “in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanoun model in Gaza.” Katz reiterated that the return of any Lebanese displaced into the occupied south will be “completely prohibited” and claimed this would effect some 600,000 Lebanese civilians. Israel has already destroyed all the bridges spanning the Litani River, so anyone who fled north earlier is effectively locked out of returning at any rate. Human Rights Watch noted that the policy amounted to both forced displacement and wanton destruction, which are considered war crimes under international law. The Israeli offensive continues, however, with the IDF reporting four of their troops were killed and two wounded in fighting.That Israel’s actions in Lebanon amount to war crimes appears to matter less and less, as Israel has openly deliberately attacked and killed journalists and health care workers repeatedly in the course of the war, rounding out the first month of the conflict by attacking and killed two UN peacekeepers. While there has been substantial criticism of the killing of the peacekeepers, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher expressed concern that the international community was ill-prepared for the unfolding humanitarian crisis.Fletcher cited the widespread destruction and death in Gaza, much as Katz did, asking at the UN Security Council meeting how the international community would protect the displaced civilians, given what already happened in Gaza. He further asked “given the intensity of the coercive displacement that we are seeing, how should we prepare collectively as the international community for a new addition to the list of occupied territories? “Israel began this latest invasion of Lebanon at the beginning of March, and Israeli orders have displaced some 1.1 million civilians, according to estimates. The Lebanese government itself was both unready and seemingly unable to provide for that level of displacement, leaving international aid groups scrambling and the displaced facing a very uncertain future.Given that Katz’s stated policy is to level many of their homes and ensure they’re not allowed to return to the south, that uncertainty is only growing.
'First Time in Centuries': Israeli Authorities Block Latin Patriarch From Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunday - The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, was stopped by Israeli police from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in East Jerusalem to celebrate Palm Sunday Mass, which marks the start of Holy Week for Christians around the world. According to a statement from the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the Custody of the Holy Land, the incident marked the first time in “centuries” that church leaders were prevented from entering the church, the holiest site in Christianity, for Palm Sunday Mass. Pizzaballa was on his way to the church with the Vatican’s Custos of the Holy Land, Fr. Francesco Ielpo, as well as two escorts, complying with Israel’s restrictions on the number of people allowed in the holy sites after the Palm Sunday procession was cancelled due to the US-Israeli war against Iran. “The two were stopped en route, while proceeding privately and without any characteristics of a procession or ceremonial act, and were compelled to turn back. As a result, and for the first time in centuries, the Heads of the Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre,” the joint statement said. “The Heads of the Churches have acted with full responsibility and, since the outset of the war, have complied with all imposed restrictions: public gatherings were cancelled, attendance was prohibited, and arrangements were made to broadcast the celebrations to hundreds of millions of faithful worldwide, who, during these days of Easter, turn their eyes to Jerusalem and to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre,” the statement added. The statement described the move as “manifestly unreasonable and grossly disproportionate measure” and said that it “represents an extreme departure from basic principles of reasonableness, freedom of worship, and respect for the Status Quo.” The incident sparked widespread criticism of Israeli authorities, including from Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, who is extremely pro-Israel and believes the modern state of Israel has a divine right to swaths of land across the region. Huckabee said on X that blocking Pizzaballa from entering the church was “unfortunate overreach already having major repercussions around the world.”
Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem: Agreement Reached With Israeli Police After Cardinal Blocked from Holy Sepulchre - The Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the Vatican’s Custody of the Holy Land said in a joint statement on Monday that an agreement was reached with the Israeli police after the Latin Patriarch, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, was blocked from celebrating Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in East Jerusalem. The joint statement said that “the matters concerning the Holy Week and Easter celebrations at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre have been addressed and resolved in coordination with the relevant authorities.”Cardinal Pizzaballa meeting with Israeli police officials (via Israeli Police X account)The statement added that in an agreement with the Israeli police, “access for representatives of the Churches has been secured in order to conduct the liturgies and ceremonies and to preserve the ancient Easter traditions at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.”The statement said that the “existing restrictions on public gatherings remain in force for the time being. Accordingly, the Churches will ensure that the liturgies and prayers are broadcast live to the faithful in the Holy Land and throughout the world.”Pizzaballa, the Vatican’s Custos of the Holy Land, Fr. Francesco Ielpo, and two of their escorts were blocked from the Holy Sepulchre, despite their compliance with Israeli restrictions on crowds gathering at holy sites in East Jerusalem that were imposed following the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.The Latin Patriarchate released a scathing statement in response to Pizzaballa being blocked from privately celebrating Mass at the church, the holiest site in Christianity, and said it marked the first time “in centuries” that church leaders couldn’t access the Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunday, and the incident sparked global outrage.After midnight in Jerusalem, once Palm Sunday was over, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a post on X that he was ordering the reversal of the measure to grant Pizzaballa access to the church, which is jointly owned by the Catholic Church, the Greek Orthodox Church, and the Armenian Apostolic Church.On Monday, Pizzaballa met with Israeli police officials, and the Israeli police shared a photo with the Latin Patriarch on X and said that a “mutual framework has been established for upcoming Easter ceremonies.”
Israeli Knesset Passes Death Penalty Bill for Palestinians - The Israeli Knesset passed a bill on Monday that mandates the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of deadly “acts of terror,” an effort that was led by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish power party, who was seen celebrating with champagne after the vote.The bill is designed to apply exclusively to Palestinians by mandating the death penalty for a “terrorist” convicted of killing a person “with the intent to deny the existence of the State of Israel.” According to Haaretz, the law is now applicable in any territory that Israel effectively controls, which includes the occupied West Bank and more than 50% of the Gaza Strip.In his remarks on the vote, Ben Gvir made clear that the bill was designed to execute only those convicted of killing Israeli Jews. “The State of Israel is changing the rules of the game today: whoever murders Jews will not continue to breathe and enjoy conditions in prison. This is a day of justice for the victims and a day of deterrence for our enemies,” he said.The bill was supported by 62 lawmakers in the Knesset, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Forty-eight Knesset members voted against the legislation, and one abstained.The Israeli rights group B’Tselem strongly condemned the bill and noted the high conviction rate in Israeli military courts where Palestinians who live in the West Bank are put on trial.“The penalty – execution by hanging – must be carried out within 90 days of sentencing, with no possibility of pardon. The death penalty will be determined in military courts where only Palestinians are tried,” B’Tselem said.“These courts have an approximately 96% conviction rate, based largely on ‘confessions’ extracted under duress and torture during interrogations. The law allows military judges no discretion and requires them to sentence Palestinians convicted of murder to death, except in ‘special circumstances,'” the rights group added.
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