oil prices finished lower for the fourth time in five weeks on weak economic reports from the US and China and on signs that the Saudis would try to expand their market share.…after falling 1.5% to $63.02 a barrel last week on reports of progress in US talks with Iran and on indications that OPEC would increase its output in June, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for June delivery decreased slightly during Asian trading on Monday amid uncertainty over trade talks between the US and China, as well as concerns about a potential oversupply in global oil markets, then erased early sharp gains in US trading after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not back Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were underway to settle 97 cents lower at $62.05 a barrel on worries over how the U.S. and China trade war was affecting demand across the world…oil prices declined again during Asian trading on Tuesday, as traders scaled back their expectations for demand growth amid the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, then tumbled to nearly $60 in US trading after the widely referenced US consumer confidence gauge weakened significantly in another sign of the pessimism stemming from Trump’s tariffs. and settled $1.63 cents lower at a two-week low of $60.42 a barrel as traders braced for OPEC+ to boost output and worried that Trump's tariffs would hit the global economy and slow demand for the fuel….oil prices continued to decline for a third straight session on global markets Wednesday morning, as lingering tariff risks, expectations of OPEC+ loosening output curbs, and a bearish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) weighed on prices, but came off their lows in early US trading after the EIA reported large draws from crude and gasoline inventories, only to turn lower again in afternoon trading after Saudi Arabia signaled a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, before settling $2.21 lower at a four year low of $58.21 a barrel, thus recording the largest monthly drop in almost 3-1/2 years, as the global trade war eroded the outlook for fuel demand….oil prices rose slightly on bargain hunting on global markets early Thursday following their steep drop Wednesday, despite signs that the OPEC+ alliance might be entering an extended phase of production increases, then retraced some of its previous losses in New York as a rebound in the equities market and the postponement of U.S.-Iran talks offset any concerns over the U.S. economy and the possibility of increased OPEC+ output, and settled $1.03 higher at $59.24 a barrel after Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after the fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks was postponed…oil prices dropped during Asian trading on Friday as traders adjusted their positions ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, amid caution surrounding a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute, then settled the New York session 95 cents, or 1.6% lower at $58.29 a barrel, as traders turned cautious ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's output policy for June, which left oil prices down 7.5% for the week, the biggest weekly loss in a month of losses…
natural gas prices, on the other hand finished higher for the first time in five weeks on a drop in daily output and on forecasts for more weather driven demand next week than was previously expected…after falling 9.5% to a 5 month low of $2.937 per mmBTU last week on near record production, weakening demand, and a bearish storage report, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery opened 4.5 cents lower on Monday, but posted a strong recovery throughout the day, which analysts attributed to short-covering following last week’s sell-off, and finished the expiring contract’s trading 23.3 cents higher at $3.170 per mmBTU, as the market reset as the June contract took over at the front of the curve, while that more actively traded natural gas contract for June delivery settled 22.9 cents higher at $3.343 per mmBTU…with markets now quoting the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery, that contract opened 6.1 cents higher on Tuesday as Monday’s rally persisted and strong LNG exports provided support, but faded to hover near $3.350 throughout the afternoon before settling 4.3 cents higher for the day at $3.386 per mmBTU, as a bullish drop in daily output offset bearish forecasts for lower demand next week....natural gas prices then opened 4 cents lower on Wednesday, knocked down overnight by expectations of a bearish storage injection, and traded sideways near $3.320 through the afternoon before settling 6.0 cents lower at $3.326 per mmBTU, on economic unease following a weak GDP report and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks…natural gas opened 5.1 cents higher on Thursday, then jumped to a two-week intraday high of $3.540 following a bullish storage report, and settled 15.3 cents higher at $3.479 per mmBTU on a drop in output over the previous few days and forecasts for more demand next week than was previously expected….natural gas prices continued higher in early trading on Friday, aided by technicals and inventory data pointing to a drop in renewable generation tightening weather-normalized balances, and traded still higher through midday, as traders looked past mild shoulder season weather to expected growth in demand this summer, and settled 15.1 cents higher at $3.630 per mmBTU amid bullish technical momentum and a supportive inventory report, and were thus up 23.6% for the week, while natural gas contract for June delivery, which had closed the prior week at $3.114 per mmBTU, ended 16.6% higher…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 25th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 107 billion cubic feet to 2,041 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 478 billion cubic feet, or 17.6% below the 2,412 2,476billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on April 25th of last year, but 5 billion cubic feet, or 0.2% more than the five-year average of 2,036 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 25th of April over the most recent five years….the 107 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was was in line with the 107 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast by a Reuters' poll of analysts ahead of the report, while it was much more than the 64 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in April of 2024, as well as much more than the average 58 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late-April week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 25th indicated that after an increase in our oil exports and an increase in refinery demand, we had to pull oil out if our stored crude supplies for the third time in thirteen weeks, and for the 24th time in forty-two weeks, despite an increase in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 90,000 barrels per day to average 5,498,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 412,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 572,000 barrels per day to average 4,121,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,377,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 25th, an average of 662,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 452,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 13,465,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,294,000 barrels per day during the April 25th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,078,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 25th, an average of 189,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 233,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending April 25th averaged a rounded 550,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +550,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…Moreover, since 35,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 515,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are garbage….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 233,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 385,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 152,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-ninth SPR increase in the past seventy-nine weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,819,000 barrels per day last week, which was 11.0% less than the 6,541,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 5,000 barrels per day higher at 13,465,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,022,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 443,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 88.6% of their capacity while processing those 16,078,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 25th, the highest in fifteen weeks, up from their 88.1% utilization rate of a week earlier, but down from the 91.7% utilization rate of sixteen weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the onset of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 16,078,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 2.8% more than the 15,641,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending April 26th of 2024, but were 2.2% less than the 16,446,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 26th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.2%, also a bit low for this time of year…
Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was sharply lower, decreasing by 616,000 barrels per day to 9,457,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 25th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 661,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 0.6% more than the 9,396,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending April 26th of last year, but was 4.7% less than the gasoline production of 9,927,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending April 26th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 15,000 barrels per day to 4,626,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 62,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that modest production decrease, our distillates output was 2.2% more than the 4,508,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 26th of 2024, but was 10.1% less than the 5,128,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending April 26th, 2019…
With this week’s big decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the ninth consecutive week, decreasing by 4,003,000 barrels to 225,540,000 barrels during the week ending April 25th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,476,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell again this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 316,000 barrels per day to 9,098,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline fell by 277,000 barrels per day to 581,000 barrels per day and because our exports of gasoline rose by 30,000 barrels per day to 705,000 barrels per day….After thirty-eight gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-four weeks, our gasoline supplies were 0.7% lower than last April 26th’s gasoline inventories of 227,087,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With the modest decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 11th time in 31 weeks, increasing by 937,000 barrels to of 107,815,000 barrels during the week ending April 25th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,353,000 barrels barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 353,000 to 3,550,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 32,000 barrels per day to 1,124,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 92,000 barrels per day...But after 40 inventory withdrawals over the past 67 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 6.9% below the 115,850,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 26th of 2024, and were still about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the increases in our oil exports and our refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 27th time over the past year, decreasing by 2,696,000 barrels over the week, from a 41 week high of 443,104,000 barrels on April 18th to 440,408,000 barrels on April 25th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 244,000 barrels over the prior week… After that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories fell to 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 27% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this April 25th were 4.4% less than the 460,890,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on April 26th of 2024, and 4.2% less than the 459,633,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on April 28th of 2023, but were 6.3% more than the 414,424,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on April 22nd of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count decreased by three during the week ending May 2nd, the fifth decrease in seven weeks, as 4 rigs targeting oil and 1 miscellaneous rig were removed, while 2 rigs targeting natural gas began drilling...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 2nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 25th) and this week’s (May 2nd) count, the third column shows last week’s April 25th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 3rd of May, 2024…
notice that three rigs were removed from Ohio’s Utica shale this week…oddly enough, they were all oil rigs, and had been drilling in Belmont, Harrison, and Guernsey counties a week ago...that leaves Ohio with nine rigs still drilling; with natural gas targetting rigs in Columbiana, Jefferson, Monroe, and Belmont counties, and oil rigs in Harrison, Guernsey, Noble, and two in Carroll county...there is also a directional rig drilling into the Utica shale in Beaver county Pennsylvania..
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6th Circuit Reverses Lower Court, Blocks EOG from Surface Drilling -Marcellus Drilling News - This is news of a lawsuit with implications for drillers, rights owners, and surface land owners that we were not previously aware of. EOG Resources, an oil and gas drilling giant with nearly half a million leased acres in Ohio, holds drilling rights on land owned by Lucky Land Management in Ohio—we could not determine the exact location or county. The two sides couldn’t agree on whether EOG’s rights to drill included the right to drill from Lucky Land’s surface out to adjacent properties as well. So EOG sued. EOG then asked a district court to grant a preliminary injunction, allowing the company to access the land to cut down trees and begin constructing wells. The district court did so, finding that EOG would probably succeed on the merits of the case.
Why Canadian utilities are looking past the Trump threat to continue a U.S. spending spree -- For all the political talk of the need for a “Canada First” strategy on infrastructure investment, the county’s largest utilities continue to pour money into U.S. expansion. And investors large and small are lining up to support these cross-border growth strategies on the theory that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war will leave the infrastructure sector unscathed. Two weeks ago, Edmonton-based Capital Power Corp. CPX-T spent $3-billion to acquire two natural-gas-fired power plants, one in Ohio and a second in Pennsylvania. The week before, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP BIP-UN-T agreed to buy Colonial Enterprises, owner of pipelines connecting Texas oil fields to New York customers, for US$9-billion, including debt. Both investments took place against the backdrop of sweeping tariffs from Mr. Trump and increasingly frosty relations between Canada and United States. The deals follow billions’ of dollars worth of investments in American and Mexican infrastructure by Canadian heavyweight utilities such as TC Energy Corp. TRP-T, Enbridge Inc. ENB-T and Fortis Inc. FTS-T, all launched before Mr. Trump’s election victory last November. Capital Power’s acquisition is significant because it’s the latest in a series of well-received deals meant to shift what was once a city-owned utility away from its roots as a supplier to the Alberta grid. This month’s purchase of two U.S. gas-fired power plants gives Capital Power its first access to North America’s largest electricity market, a 13-state grid known as the PJM Interconnection, which has roots in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The deal also cements the utility’s standing as one of the continent’s top five natural-gas-fired power producers. Capital Power is buying the U.S. gas-fired plants from New York-based LS Power Equity Advisors LLC, a privately-owned asset manager. The deal is expected to boost Capital Power’s adjusted funds from operations – a standard measure of performance at utilities – by an impressive 17 per cent to 19 per cent a year. To pay for the acquisition, which is expected to close within six months, Capital Power raised $150-million by selling stock to Alberta Investment Management Corp., the $168-billion asset manager owned by the Alberta government.
Expand: 2%-Plus Gas OFS Deflation if Permian Cuts Rigs, Frac Crews - Expand Energy sees net gas-field drilling and completion (D&C) cost deflation of up to 2% and possibly more in the wake of $60 oil as OPEC+ plans to up its output, while U.S. tariffs on most imported goods may further squeeze oil-basin associated gas producers’ margins. The pureplay gas operator is the nation’s largest, putting 6.8 Bcfe/d net into pipe in the first quarter from its 1.9 million net acres in the Haynesville, Marcellus and Utica shale plays. Some of Expand’s D&C cost savings are coming from merging with Southwestern Energy in October, giving it a stronger negotiating position for gas-field goods and services, Josh Viets, COO, said in an investor call April 30. But what may create “a little bit of a tailwind for us as well is the outlook in the oilier basins, specifically within the Permian,” Viets said. J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Arun Jayaram reported oil-focused E&Ps may drop 50 rigs if $60 oil persists—and to up to 100 rigs may go idle at $55. “There are a lot of predictions out there right now of cuts to rigs in the Permian,” Expand Energy President and CEO Nick Dell’Osso said. “We've seen anything from 20 to 50, but we haven't seen a lot of specific plans just yet. So we're going to be watching that really closely.” The Permian Basin is the U.S.’ No. 2 gas producer behind Appalachia (36 Bcf/d) and ahead of the Haynesville (15 Bcf/d), putting 25 Bcf/d of associated gas into the market from its oil wells, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “If we see any material pullback in activity there, I think you could expect some additional deflation showing up across our [gas] business,” Viets said. Dell’Osso said the pattern in the Permian has been that operators have plenty of associated gas to put into pipe—when new pipe is built. “We saw how quickly Matterhorn [Express pipeline] filled, even though it didn't appear that there were a lot of DUCs in the basin leading into that,” Dell’Osso said. “And so I think … the basin continues to prove that associated gas is available when pipeline capacity is available.” If Permian drillers start dropping rigs, though, “that'll change and that could be a really interesting development for the dynamics of Lower 48 [gas] supply,” Dell’Osso said. OCTG cost With 11 rigs drilling, Expand is already seeing some weakness in oilfield service costs, Viets said. “And so, as we look out to the rest of the year and specifically around tariffs, there is clearly going to be a little bit of pressure … that is going to show up within our casing cost.” Roughly 80% of Expand’s casing—that is, oil country tubular goods (OCTG) used in making oil and gas wells—is manufactured in the U.S., though. “So there is some level of insulation,” Viets said. “But we know, as import costs rise, that will likely bleed into some of the domestic cost as well.”
24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 21 – 27 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of April 21 – 27, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica was down nine from the previous week. Last week, 24 new permits were issued in the M-U. In the Keystone State (PA), 17 new permits were issued. Both Coterra Energy in the northeastern part of the state and EQT Corporation in the southwestern corner received six permits each. Coterra’s permits were all issued for the same pad. EQT received five permits for a single pad in Greene County, and one permit for a pad in Washington County. Range Resources received four permits for a single pad in Beaver County, and Olympus Energy scored one permit in Westmoreland County. ARSENAL RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HARRISON COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY
FERC chair said ready to fast-track natural gas permitting - FERC Chairman Mark Christie expressed support for the Trump administration’s energy dominance agenda, which aims to expedite natural gas infrastructure approvals by removing regulatory barriers, as outlined in a recent executive order declaring a national emergency to boost U.S. energy production. Speaking at a press conference, Christie emphasized FERC’s commitment to efficient permitting under the Natural Gas Act, a focus since his appointment as chairman. He highlighted the need for adequate staffing to handle an expected increase in project proposals and noted that the time-consuming National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process is being adjusted, with the withdrawal of prior environmental justice guidelines to focus on broader community impacts. Addressing concerns about potential dismissals of FERC’s Democratic members, Christie referenced a 1935 Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential removal powers, suggesting any such action would face legal scrutiny.
Fossil fuels back in play as Amazon, Nvidia power AI ambitions -- The surging energy demands of artificial intelligence have prompted major tech firms like Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) to consider fossil fuels, including natural gas, as viable power sources for their data centers, according to CNBC. At a recent gathering of tech and energy leaders at the Hamm Institute for American Energy in Oklahoma City, executives emphasized the urgency of securing reliable power to meet AI’s immediate needs, even as they navigate a shifting political landscape under President Donald Trump, who has prioritized fossil fuel production over climate commitments. Amazon, the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy, is investing in advanced nuclear and carbon capture technologies but acknowledges these won’t be available until the 2030s, leaving natural gas as a necessary interim solution to ensure steady power, as stated by Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers.Nvidia’s Josh Parker, senior director of corporate sustainability, underscored the need for an “all options on the table” approach, noting that while some customers prioritize clean energy, others are less concerned, highlighting the pressing need for power to sustain AI growth. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark estimated that AI will require 50 gigawatts of new power by 2027, equivalent to the output of 50 nuclear reactors, and urged realism about current energy options while suggesting AI’s demand could spur innovation in novel power sources over time. Despite Trump’s push to boost coal production citing AI needs, executives expressed reluctance to embrace coal, with Clark noting it’s not a top priority but part of a broader set of options. Amazon remains committed to its goal of net-zero carbon by 2040, Miller affirmed, but meeting customer demand for capacity takes precedence, necessitating a pragmatic reliance on thermal generation in the short term. The discussions, as reported by CNBC, reflect the tech industry’s balancing act between environmental goals and the immediate energy realities of powering AI’s rapid expansion.
Will U.S. LNG Exports Lose Out to Demand for Gas from Power Plants? - Marcellus Drilling News -- Speaking of gas turbines and our current inability to produce them quickly enough, we came across a somewhat related story from Reuters. The reporters from Reuters are sounding the alarm that U.S. LNG export facilities may soon have to compete for natural gas supplies with power plants needed to power AI data centers. The result is that the price of natural gas will increase, and in some cases, it may not be available for exports. Of course, the free market (capitalism) will sort this out on its own, but in the meantime, there may be some tension.
TC Energy approves $900m pipeline expansion in US Midwest to serve data center market - TC Energy, a Calgary based natural gas and energy company, has approved a $900 million natural gas pipeline project in the Midwest of the US to serve gas-fired power plants which intend to power the region's growing data center market. The Northwoods pipeline expansion project is expected to add 400,000 million British thermal units - equivalent to 117,228MWh - of new capacity, and increase the storage capacity of the system by 0.4 billion cubic feet per day. The project will expand the ANR pipeline, which covers more than 10,600 miles delivering natural gas from Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma to Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. “We have approved the Northwoods project on our ANR system, designed to serve electric generation demand in the US Midwest, including data centers and overall economic growth," said Francois Poirier, president and CEO at TC Energy. The project will include pipeline looping, compressor facility additions, as well as other systems updates. It has an anticipated in-service date of late 2029 and is tied to 20 year take-or-pay contracts with Midwest utilities. The Midwest is emerging as one of the fastest-growing data center hubs in the US. The growth is the result of significant tax incentives and cooler temperatures, which make it an ideal location for large-scale data centers. For example, Ohio currently has 179 operational data centers, making it the fifth-largest market in the US. Amazon Web Services is the dominant player in the market, with 56 planned or already in operation across Ohio, according to Data Center Maps. TC also said it is considering options in powering the Alberta, Canada data center market. Unlike projects in the US, where it is broadly seeking behind-the-meter agreements to power data centers, in Canada, TC is seeking utility partners to provide natural gas directly to the grid. "Strictly from a pipeline perspective, it's a little bit different in Canada, a little bit more of an 'if you build it they will come' kind of approach," said Poirier. "So we are working with producers, developers as well to see what the solution set might look like." . "We're going to be very thoughtful in our approach and of course we must compete for capital among all the other great opportunities," Grant said. Alberta is increasingly becoming a hotbed for AI data centers seeking available and affordable gas power. The province produces more than half of the country’s natural gas, reaching 11.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2023, the highest level since 2010.
Commonwealth LNG Requests FERC Authorization by June -Commonwealth LNG LLC has asked FERC to speed up the remand process for its final authorization, citing regulation-cutting executive orders by the Trump administration. Since last year, Commonwealth has been waiting for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to answer a court order from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Circuit) to revisit the agency's environmental analysis for the project. Commonwealth’s authorization, along with two other projects, were remanded to FERC last year by the DC Circuit. However, Commonwealth lawyers argued FERC has already defended its analysis process in other cases and should be clear to make a final authorization decision by June.
Woodside FIDs $17.5B Louisiana LNG in Another Sign of U.S. Export Project Momentum --Woodside Energy Group Ltd. will move ahead with the first $17.5 billion phase of the Louisiana LNG facility and is aiming to start up by 2029. The first phase will have the capacity to produce 16.5 million tons/year (Mt/y), but the project is fully permitted to produce up to 27.6 Mt/y. The decision to move ahead would create the largest single foreign direct investment in Louisiana’s history, Woodside said. It also marks the first greenfield U.S. LNG project to be sanctioned since July 2023, when NextDecade Corp. gave the greenlight to the Rio Grande LNG project.
Woodside Taps BP Natural Gas Assets in Louisiana LNG Supply Agreement — The Offtake A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 640 Bcf: Fresh off of its final investment decision for the Louisiana LNG export project, Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has also disclosed a natural gas supply agreement for the facility. Woodside has agreed to purchase up to 640 Bcf of natural gas from BP plc starting in 2029. Gas would be sourced from production areas managed by BPX Energy, which has assets in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville Shales, as well as the Permian Basin.
- $12.68/MMBtu: Goldman Sachs Commodities Research is tracking how a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could impact its global natural gas forecast. Specifically, researchers assume a deal that lifts sanctions on Russian LNG could dip Title Transfer Facility prices lower than its current assumption of $12.68/MMBtu for the balance of the year. More supplies from Russia also boosts the likelihood of market oversupply in 2027.
- 80%: Germany is taking steps to lower mandatory natural gas storage targets ahead of a European Union (EU) decision on bloc-wide energy security policies. German policymakers lowered targets for critical underground infrastructure from 90% by Nov. 1 to 80%. Less critical infrastructure was lowered to 45%. EU member countries are expected to vote in May on whether to lower targets in order to reduce market speculation during the winter filling season.
- 1 cargo: China National Offshore Oil Co. (CNOOC) has sold a contract LNG cargo from Calcasieu Pass LNG for delivery in May, according to Kpler data. CNOOC holds a 1.5 million ton/year sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global LNG Inc. that was supposed to begin at the end of 2024. The diversion of U.S. cargoes by Chinese buyers to other markets and an overall drag on economic outlooks due to trade tensions helped lower European and Asian natural gas benchmarks this week to the lowest point in about a year.
Golden Pass LNG Receives Greenlight to Commission Key Liquefaction Equipment - Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC has received federal approval to commission major liquefaction components at its Texas export project, signaling the next major addition of Gulf Coast feed gas demand. In an order Monday (April 28), FERC granted the Houston company’s request to commission compression systems, LNG storage, pumps and liquefaction systems at the 15.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity facility (No. CP14-517-000). Golden Pass’ request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission had been pending since late December. The order followed approvals earlier in April for Golden Pass to commission gas treatment components, flaring equipment and refrigeration systems. Three requests had been pending since 2023.
Venture Global Secures More Financing for CP2 Project as FID Process Continues — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - Venture Global LNG Inc. has secured a $3 billion loan from 19 banks for development of its CP2 export terminal in Louisiana. The company initiated the final investment decision (FID) process for the project in March. CEO Mike Sabel said the facility is scheduled to receive its first two liquefaction trains soon. He added that $4 billion has already been invested in the project and said the loan would allow fabrication, manufacturing and procurement to continue at “an accelerated pace.” CP2 is designed with a peak production capacity of 28 million tons/year (Mt/y).
Trump administration kicks off rewrite of LNG safety rules - The Trump administration said Tuesday it is renewing efforts to replace 45-year-old safety rules for the coastal terminals that chill natural gas into a cryogenic liquid and load it onto ships for export.The rewrite will be focused on deregulation and examine “cost savings for the industry,” according to a draft notice and a news release from the Department of Transportation.“Under this administration, America is building again,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a statement. DOT’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, he said, “is laying the groundwork to revamp decades-old regulations and slash red tape to increase LNG exports, generate good-paying jobs, and allow the U.S. to safely send more of its natural resources around the world.”The LNG announcement comes as the Trump administration seeks to accelerate what is already a dramatic surge in exports of liquefied natural gas from U.S. terminals along the Gulf Coast. That surge is being met with growing opposition to exports from environmental groups. The rulemaking process could spur a heated debate about safety, U.S. energy security, energy costs and the role of natural gas in fueling the world.The country’s main pipeline safety advocacy group criticized focus on deregulation, saying the Trump administration approach leaves numerous gaps in safety. The Pipeline Safety Trust said PHMSA should focus on protecting communities near the massive terminals, mostly along the Gulf Coast.“While it’s wonderful to see PHMSA finally addressing the long-outdated LNG safety regulations, it’s hard to reconcile this effort with PHMSA’s references to this being deregulatory,” Bill Caram, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, said in a news release.The U.S LNG industry did not voice objections about the renewed regulatory effort Tuesday. Its main trade group, the Center for LNG, has long said the rules are outdated, and Executive Director Charlie Riedl cheered Tuesday’s announcement. “This effort represents a meaningful opportunity to update prescriptive regulations with a performance-based, risk-informed approach that improves safety outcomes while supporting continued U.S. LNG leadership on the global stage,” he said in an emailed statement, adding that the industry wants to ensure the rule is “effective, science-driven, and reflective of industry best practices.” PHMSA’s planned overhaul also arrives as the LNG industry continues to try to ramp up U.S. export capacity with complex industrial projects. On Monday, Australia-based Woodside Energy announced a final investment decision on three production lines of its planned Louisiana LNG export project, which includes a pipeline. On Tuesday, three workers died, and two were injured in a scaffolding incident at an LNG terminal construction site near Port Arthur, Texas. OSHA said it is investigating. Bechtel, the construction contractor, said all work at the site was stopped following the incident. DOT said Tuesday that PHMSA will also be revising regulations that cover when pipelines carrying crude oil and other hazardous liquids must be repaired, when pipeline companies must upgrade pipes in response to population growth and the rules about transportation of petroleum-based fuels. Tuesday’s announcement is technically a step backward in the process for LNG rules. PHMSA has for years been working on a new draft of the regulations called a “notice of proposed rulemaking.” But DOT is shifting to an information-gathering stage called an “advance notice of proposed rulemaking” to seek comment. When that is complete, the agency will start work on its proposed rulemaking. The effort to update the regulations stalled in Trump’s first term and made little progress during the Biden administration as emissions and other efforts took priority.The current LNG export industry bears little resemblance to what it looked like in 1980, when the current rule was published.That was the last full year of the Carter administration, and LNG was kept as backup fuel for gas-fired power plants when demand peaked. In the early 2000s, fear of gas shortages led to construction of terminals to potentially import natural gas liquefied abroad. But then the market changed because of a surge of U.S. gas production from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Today, massive coastal terminals coasts handle billions of cubic feet of gas piped in every day from U.S. production fields. They shrink it six-hundredfold by supercooling it to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit and ship it overseas on vessels roughly the size of aircraft carriers. That brings a hazard that wasn’t present at import terminals. Heavier hydrocarbons — such as ethane and propane — are used as refrigerants to shrink the gas. Unlike methane, these gases are heavier than air and can create a vaporous, flammable fog if they leak.The industry has mushroomed since 2015, when there were essentially no LNG exports from the Lower 48 states. Today, eight terminals ship an average of 12 billion cubic feet every day overseas.Five more are under construction, and another dozen or so are in various stages of permitting. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says LNG exports could be double 2024 levels by around the end of Trump’s current four-year term.
U.S. Natural Gas Summer Outlook Flat as LNG, Industrials Support Demand Growth -Rising natural gas production is expected to meet LNG and industrial demand growth this summer, while more renewable generation may help satisfy light power sector demand driven by mild weather, analysts said. Add in economic uncertainty, and fundamentals create a relatively flat scenario for natural gas this summer. NGI's Henry Hub natural gas spot price. “Despite wild wildcard factors, like energy policy, global events and the economy, the summer outlook predicts flat pressure compared to last summer, when the average Henry Hub price of natural gas was $1.880/MMBtu,” Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) Chairman Freeman Shaheen said Wednesday. The 2024 summer season began with about 3.21 Tcf in underground storage. Weighed down by supply 17% above the five-year average, Henry Hub prices fell to a $1.335 low last April and reached only as high as $2.800 throughout the April-October period, NGI data show.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 5% Ahead of Contract Expiration (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Monday in light trade ahead of the expiration of the front-month contract on forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected. Earlier in the day, prices slid about 2% to a five-month low on rising output and forecasts for mild weather through mid-May that will limit heating and cooling demand, allowing utilities to keep putting more gas than usual into storage. On its last day as the front month, gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 15.1 cents, or 5.1%, at $3.09 per million British thermal units at 10:06 a.m. EDT (1406 GMT). Despite the price jump, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for an eighth day in a row for the first time since February 2024. The June contract, which will soon be the front month, jumped about 6.5% to $3.31 per MMBtu. One factor pressuring prices in recent weeks has been fast growth in the amount of gas in storage. After falling below normal levels in mid-January, analysts project gas inventories will rise above the five-year average in the next week or two. After cold weather in January and February boosted demand for gas, the total amount in storage was about 1% below normal for this time of year. With gas futures down about 33% over the past seven weeks, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for a seventh week in a row to their lowest since January, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 Bcf/d in March. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 13. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 99.2 Bcf/d this week to 97.4 Bcf/d next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 Bcf/d in March to 16.0 Bcf/d so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's 3.2-Bcf/d Plaquemines export plant, under construction in Louisiana. Gas was trading near a nine-month low of around $11 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and at an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
US natgas prices jump 5% to 2-week high on output drop, despite big storage build — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a two-week high on Thursday on a drop in output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected. Prices increased despite a federal report, which was delayed due to a software problem, showing last week's storage build was, as expected, much bigger than usual for this time of year. The build returned the amount of gas in stockpiles to normal levels for the first time since January. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.3 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.479 per million British thermal units, their highest close since April 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 107 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended April 25. That was in line with the 107-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with an increase of 64 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 58 bcf for this time of year. The build boosted the amount of gas in storage to near normal levels for this time of year. Gas stockpiles had been below normal since mid-January as utilities pulled a record 1.013 bcf of gas from storage to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter. Some analysts said mild weather and record output so far this spring could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May, breaking the all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf set in May 2015. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a record 105.8 billion cubic feet per day in April, up from the prior monthly all-time high of 105.6 bcfd in March. On a daily basis, however, gas output was on track to drop by 3.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary two-month low of 102.0 bcfd on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. climbed to a record 16.0 bcfd in April, up from the prior monthly all-time high of 15.8 bcfd in March, on rising flows to Venture Global's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana. Gas was trading at a nine-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and near an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
Oil Spill Occurs In Louisiana Marshes The US Coast Guard, operator Spectrum OpCo and the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office (LOSCO) have established a Unified Command in response to an oil and gas mixture release in a marsh environment near the Garden Island Bay Production Facility company's well in Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. An overflight by an LOSCO aircrew on Saturday confirmed the presence of crude oil. The operator is implementing its federal and state approved emergency oil spill response plan. There have been no reports of injuries or wildlife impacts. The cause of the incident is under investigation.
Crews race to clean up oil spill along Louisiana coastline– Nearly 200 personnel are working to contain an oil spill along the coast of Louisiana that threatens to pollute marshes around Plaquemines Parish. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, the agency was alerted to a leaking well about 20 miles southeast of Venice over the weekend. A unified command was established and deployed thousands of feet of boom in an attempt to contain the oily residue. The agency reports that more than 23,000 gallons of oily water have been collected so far, and drone video shows streaks of a brownish-black substance along the shoreline. "Our top priority remains the safety of the public and our responders," Gregory Callaghan, a captain with the U.S. Coast Guard, said in a statement. "The Unified Command is working around the clock to secure the source of the discharge as safely and quickly as possible. We are committed to minimizing further impacts to the environment." The exact amount of discharged oil remains unknown as crews continue efforts to plug the once-active well. Aerial surveillance by drones and helicopters has not detected any immediate health concerns for humans, as the impacted area is located some distance from communities. Officials remain concerned about the potential impact on wildlife, including birds, fish and other species that inhabit the marshlands. Authorities have not reported any significant harm to animal populations at this time, though the situation is still developing. Officials have not disclosed what may have triggered the well to start leaking, nor whether elevated water levels from the Mississippi River are complicating containment and cleanup efforts.
US Coast Guard Takes Over Major Oil Spill Cleanup Near Louisiana Coast -The U.S. Coast Guard has taken charge of the oil spill cleanup near Garden Island Bay, Louisiana, after a major leak of oil and natural gas posed a threat to both the environment and public safety. On May 1, the Coast Guard officially stepped in, taking over from Spectrum OpCo, LLC, the company responsible for the spill. Using federal emergency funds, the Coast Guard hired a cleanup company called Environmental Safety & Health Consulting Services Inc. to lead the response. A team called the Unified Command, made up of the Coast Guard and Louisiana’s Oil Spill Coordinator’s Office, is managing the cleanup. They’re working closely with local, state, and federal agencies to stop the leak and protect the area. As of 11 a.m., more than 180 people were working on the response. Cleanup teams have already placed over 11,700 feet of containment boom in the water and are using skimmers and other tools to collect the oil. Another 2,300 feet of boom is on standby. So far, about 32,700 gallons of oily water have been recovered, but officials don’t yet know how much oil has spilt. A contractor specialising in well control is at the site trying to stop the leak. Equipment like cranes, piping, cutting tools, and storage barges is being brought in for the job. Teams are also monitoring the weather carefully to make sure cleanup efforts can continue safely. Aerial surveys are underway to track the spread of the spill, and air tests so far show no serious health risks. For safety reasons, vessels are being kept out of a one-nautical-mile area, and aircraft are restricted from flying too close. So far, there haven’t been any confirmed cases of animals harmed by the spill. Authorities are asking anyone who sees oil in the water to report it to the National Response Centre at 800-424-8802. If anyone spots wildlife that looks affected, they should call the Wildlife Hotline at 832-514-9663. People or businesses impacted by the spill can call 1-866-601-5880 for help. The cleanup team is working with a long list of agencies, including NOAA, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and local Louisiana departments. The cause of the spill is still being investigated.
Oil spill off Louisiana's Gulf Coast raises alarm as DOGE cuts may threaten response efforts - Former federal disaster response specialists and national environmental groups warn that DOGE job cuts may hamper the response to a major oil spill off Louisiana's Gulf Coast this week, a leak that is fast contaminating marshlands and threatening vital wildlife habitats and fisheries.Although the amount of crude oil currently leaking out of the well is not yet known, a report from the U.S. Coast Guard's National Response Center earlier this week said "the amount discharged could potentially reach the threshold of a major spill for coastal waters (over 100,000 gallons)." The leak was first reported on Friday, April 26, as a "well blowout." The cause is not yet known. On Thursday, the Coast Guard reported more than 30,000 gallons of an "oily watery mixture" had been collected from the spill site, and while more than two miles of booms had already been deployed, crews were waiting for more containment materials to arrive. More than 1,000 employees of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were laid off or have taken early retirement in recent days. That is in addition to around 1,000 that were cut earlier this year, according to sources familiar with the reduction in forces. This week eight of 28 staff members from NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration Emergency Response Division — the very team tasked with addressing the oil spill — left the agency. The office handles approximately 150 oil and chemical spills annually. According to NOAA, the office has helped recover $10.8 billion from responsible parties over the past three decades to support environmental restoration. A recently retired NOAA senior manager involved in spill responses told CBS News that the agency has undergone "substantial reductions" in the team that provides scientific support to the Coast Guard, which is currently in charge of coordinating operations, and is the lead agency investigating the cause of the spill in Garden Island Bay. Adriana Bejarano until this week was a chemical scientist in that Emergency Response Division and was let go because of her probationary status. Although Bejarano had been in the job for under a year, she was previously a senior eco-toxicologist at Shell Oil who holds a Ph.D. and had been in this field of work for 20 years. "If this continues and other disasters happen at the same time, I don't think NOAA will have the expertise or personnel to respond," Bejarano told CBS News. Gib Brogan, who is with the nonprofit group Oceana, told CBS News that the equivalent of "27,000 years of NOAA experience are walking out the door this week with early retirement.""We are very concerned about staff and expertise that won't be able to respond to this oil spill," Brogan said. "No part of NOAA has been spared from DOGE and early retirements, we know the expertise is not there and the support from the agency and the support isn't there for the responses." Currently, what has been described by witnesses as a geyser of oil is shooting 30 to 40 feet into the air from a well operated by Spectrum Opco LLC. Clean-up crews have been spraying the airborne oil with water to push it back to the surface to more easily collect it, and prevent the oil from drifting further away from the spill site. The well, known as Well 59, was drilled in 1942 to a depth of nearly 7,000 feet and has changed ownership multiple times. It was capped in 2016 and has not been operational since then, the Coast Guard said. But according to Scott Eustis of Healthy Gulf, a nonprofit that monitors the health of the region and advocates for moving away from oil and gas extraction, it should have been plugged a decade ago. That's a process that involves injecting concrete into the well to permanently seal it off. The leaked oil appears to have reached critical habitats, including areas used by the threatened loggerhead sea turtle, although no harm to wildlife has been reported. This incident is part of a larger issue that has concerned experts for years: a study in 2023 identified 14,000 unplugged, abandoned wells in the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has pushed to expand offshore oil drilling and accelerate the permitting process, reducing timelines to just weeks. The leak is occurring near the Garden Island Bay area of the Pass-a-Loutre Wildlife Management Area, a sensitive ecological zone in southeastern Louisiana.According to Eustis the spill threatens a range of species including black terns, bottlenose dolphins, larval yellowfin tuna, marsh birds, spring pogies, and young fish migrating into the estuaries for spring growth. There are also potential threats to the region's shrimp industry, with the shrimping season scheduled to start in just a couple of weeks, including in the marsh where the spill is still actively spraying. The Coast Guard announced yesterday that response efforts have been "federalized," allowing federal agencies to take full control of the containment and cleanup operation. A capping stack and other well control equipment were en route on Thursday. An update on operations Thursday said that 32,718 gallons of oily water mixture had been recovered.
Court agrees to dismiss oil group’s lawsuit over offshore leases - A federal court has granted the American Petroleum Institute’s request to scrap its lawsuit challenging the Biden administration’s five-year plan for offshore oil and gas development. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit approved the trade group’s request Wednesday, just days before the court is set to hear oral arguments on the Interior Department’s plan to hold three offshore auctions from 2024 to 2029. API said this week it no longer needs to pursue its legal claim after the Trump administration announced it would revisit the leasing plan. The appeals court’s May 6 hearing is still set to continue, with adjusted argument times, as API’s challenge had been consolidated with another lawsuit led by the environmental group Healthy Gulf.That lawsuit takes the opposite position from the fossil fuel trade group, which had asserted that the Biden administration had failed to offer sufficient offshore auctions.
US shale patch slows down as oil prices sink (Reuters) - Some small U.S. shale producers are putting the brakes on oil drilling as crude prices sink to multi-year lows and steep tariffs drive construction costs higher. Less drilling could slow future output growth from the world's top oil producer. Total U.S. production is forecast to reach a new record this year at 13.7 million barrels per day (bpd), with some 9.7 million bpd coming from shale. Both U.S. and international energy watchdogs have, however, cut their forecasts for 2025 total U.S. production growth. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its output growth forecast by 100,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd. Pointing to President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its U.S. supply growth forecast for 2025 by 150,000 bpd to 490,000 bpd, and also predicted global oil demand growth would fall to its slowest rate in five years. "We're paring back on drilling until we see what happens with the tariffs and demand for oil, and where oil prices go," said Bill Daugherty, co-founder and managing partner of Blackridge Resources, an independent operator working in the Appalachian basin in the eastern U.S., producing around 500 bpd. Blackridge will drill only 10 of the 15 prospects it had planned at the start of the year because of the recent slump in oil prices, Daugherty said. U.S. crude futures tumbled to a more than four-year low of $55.12 a barrel on April 9 as investors worried that tariffs could prompt an economic slowdown. The benchmark rebounded to over $62 that day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries other than China, but remains pressured by the escalating trade war. On Thursday, U.S. crude settled at $62.79. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at their lowest on April 8 since 2021, at $59.58 as investors priced in an increasing likelihood of a recession due to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest economies. "There are people in the administration touting that oil should be in the $50s. Even the best acreage in the Permian isn't going to make much money in the $50s," said Dan Doyle, president and owner of Arena Resources, a Wyoming-based operator producing around 1,000 bpd, and fracking firm Reliance Well Services. The Permian is the largest U.S. oilfield. Doyle is looking to delay plans to drill three wells next month at a drilling pad built in Powder River, Wyoming, potentially risking a large penalty. "Nobody's going to make money at $60 oil," he said. Powder River breakeven costs are among the highest in the U.S., according to research firm Wood Mackenzie, at around $58 a barrel, compared with the Permian basin, where operators can make money at $38-42 a barrel. Matador Resources, which operates in the Delaware basin in the Permian, and produced 115,030 bpd in the first quarter, said on Wednesday it would drop one drilling rig by the middle of 2025 in response to recent price volatility, leaving the company with nine rigs. Oil producers are set to report their first quarter earnings in the coming days. U.S. oilfield service firms Baker Hughes and Halliburton already warned in earnings this week of the hit to their revenues from less drilling. Baker Hughes also flagged cost impacts from tariffs. Oil and gas producer spending in the U.S. and Canada is set for a low-double digit decline, Baker Hughes said on Thursday, compared with a previous forecast for a drop in the mid-single digits. Morningstar analysts estimate that for every $5 decline in crude prices, U.S. shale spending falls by about 5%.
Colorado must consider oil and gas in emissions plan, court rules - A federal appeals court handed a win Monday to an environmental group challenging Colorado’s plan to comply with federal air quality standards for new emissions sources. The 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that EPA’s approval of part of the state’s plan to comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards improperly allowed the state to not consider air pollution from drilling and hydraulic fracturing from oil and gas wells before production begins. Colorado is the fourth-biggest state for oil production.The appeals court sent that part of the plan back to EPA, but it declined to set an “arbitrary deadline” for the agency to provide “fuller explanation of its decision.”The court agreed with the Center of Biological Diversity’s claims “concluding that the EPA acted arbitrarily and capriciously by failing to address the potential emissions during drilling, fracking, and well completion,” said Judge Robert Bacharach, an Obama appointee, writing the opinion for the court.
Close to 100 litres of heating fuel spilled in Baker Lake - Residents of Baker Lake have been advised by the Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Nunavut’s Petroleum Products Division (PPD) that a diesel heating fuel spill of about 96 litres occurred on April 4 at the Baker Lake tank farm. The fuel spill occurred at the tank farm in front of the diesel dispenser building as a result of human error while filling a fuel delivery truck, stated a press release issued by Greg Belanger, manager of policy, legislation and communications with Transportation and Infrastructure Nunavut. The news release said the contractor responsible for the fuel spill — Arctic Fuel Services — is working under the direction of the regulator (Department of Environment) to contain the spill and remediate the area. The Government of Nunavut stated that it became aware of the fuel spill on April 9. “The PPD is providing additional oversight through the work of an environmental specialist being dispatched to the tank farm property,” stated the news release. “The fuel spill occurred downstream from the raw water intake for the Baker Lake water treatment plant. “While PPD does not typically oversee fuel spill response, in this case the incident occurred on tank farm property, so PPD dispatched an environmental specialist to provide on-site support. “Immediately following the spill, the contractor collected the contaminated snow into two Quatrex bags, which were then transferred into three 45-gallon drums for secure containment and storage. The department will continue to monitor the site until regulatory agencies are satisfied with cleanup efforts.” PPD stated that there is no evidence to suggest that any fuel got into the water. It stated while hydrocarbon testing is a part of routine water sample testing, the GN has increased monitoring during remediation efforts. “Water sample analysis of both raw and treated drinking water is completed by a qualified independent laboratory, with test results being provided directly to the drinking water regulator (Department of Health), which is actively monitoring and ensuring the safety of the community drinking water supply. “The community is asked to continue following the current boil-water advisory put in place this on Feb. 26. Residents will be updated of any changes and will continue to be informed as more information becomes available.” Listed below are the recorded spills in Kivalliq region so far this year, according to the Government of Nunavut's spill data base.
Amigo LNG Project Adding Offtake Deals as North America Export Projects Get Woodside Boost - Singapore-based LNG Alliance Pte. Ltd., sponsor of the proposed Amigo LNG export project on the west coast of Mexico, has signed two new commercial agreements in recent weeks. Map showing the location of the proposed Amigo LNG export facility. One is with Nigeria-headquartered multinational Sahara Group. The sales and purchase agreement (SPA) would be for 0.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) for 20 years. The LNG would go to Asian markets with delivery to start in the third quarter of 2028, according to LNG Alliance.
Europe Focuses on Energy Security, U.S. LNG Imports as Russian Natural Gas Exit Plan Reignites -- Europe has not forgotten how the United States “immediately stepped in with LNG” after Russia halted shipments of pipeline gas to the bloc, according to European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future.U.S. imports remain “of strategic importance for the European Union,” von der Leyen said at an energy event in London sponsored by the UK government and the International Energy Agency (IEA).She said Europe must phase out all imports of Russian natural gas and oil and that a roadmap would be published in the next two weeks. The EC had previously committed to end Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
Return of Egyptian LNG Exports to Europe Could Take Years, Leaving Global Natural Gas Markets Tight, Eni Says -Eni SpA is betting big on natural gas investments to build a robust international LNG portfolio from South America to the Middle East that can help buoy its long-term cash flows. Bar graph showing Egypt's annual LNG imports. In the near-term, though, the Italian integrated major expects prolonged energy security issues in Egypt and global trade tensions to keep the market tight and LNG prices elevated until more supply hits the water in the coming years. During the first quarter, Eni accelerated its strategy of replacing Russian gas volumes with equity supply by signing deals for exploration projects in Cyprus and the Vaca Muerta Shale formation in Argentina.
Supply Disruptions Not Enough to Lift Global Natural Gas Prices as Asian Demand Remains Weak — Global natural gas prices again failed to gain any traction on Monday despite a series of supply outages that have limited exports in recent weeks. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. Both European and Asian natural gas prices have fallen over much of the past month, and the declines continued as this week got underway. Mild shoulder season weather in Asia, along with macroeconomic concerns amid a global trade war have limited restocking efforts in the region. “Liquefaction outages in Asia and Europe were not enough to raise gas and LNG prices significantly,” said Rystad Energy analyst Masanori Odaka. “Despite the non-peak gas consumption season, spot prices remain significantly higher than long-term LNG contract levels.”
Offshore oil platform pollution exposed in world-first for ocean - A groundbreaking investigation led by SkyTruth has plotted and ranked the world’s most polluting offshore oil and gas facilities using advanced satellite technology to highlight the worst persistent oil slicks and greenhouse gas emissions around the world. Researchers from the global non-profit, SkyTruth have published a new report, identifying and exposing the biggest sources of pollution from offshore oil, including oil leaks, transportation emissions, and methane flaring, as well as the most polluted locations across the global ocean. This groundbreaking investigation has plotted and ranked the world’s most polluting offshore oil and gas facilities using advanced satellite technology to highlight the worst persistent oil slicks and greenhouse gas emissions around the world. Until now, this alarming pattern of environmental damage wrought by the oil and gas industry has gone largely undetected. The report – Exposing the Environmental Costs of Offshore Oil: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oil Slicks, and Flaring – provides the first-ever public data about threats from offshore oil infrastructure. And it’s just been brought to the world’s stage. The report has been launched to coincide with the 2025 Our Ocean Conference where the team behind the investigation has been presenting its findings as part of the Digital Oceans: Actions for Advancing Sustainable Ocean through Digital Technology theme of the annual event. Based on 16 months of monitoring, the report comes with a series of downloadable maps and charts of the top polluters across the globe. It’s research that has been conducted using Cerulean, the world’s first free, publicly available technology developed by SkyTruth that uses artificial intelligence and satellite imagery to track ocean oil pollution and identify the potential sources of it. “Despite the urgent climate crisis, offshore oil production continues to expand globally, often with little public scrutiny,” said Christian Thomas, Geospatial Engineer at SkyTruth and co-author of the report. “By making this critical data publicly available, we aim to empower communities, regulators, and advocacy organisations with the information needed to hold polluters accountable and ensure marine protection.” Among the report’s key findings, several sources of what it has called chronic oil pollution have been identified. Ten of these stood out in particular for the frequency and extent of oil slicks, collectively responsible for at least 216,000 gallons of oil (over 5,100 barrels) detected on ocean surfaces. Floating production and storage vessels also rank among the most severe polluters, accounting for four out of ten of the most polluting assets observed globally, despite making up a small fraction of the total infrastructure. The most polluting offshore oil infrastructure is, however, concentrated in West Africa, in particular Nigeria, which hosts five of the ten most polluting floating production and storage vessels observed by the study. The United Kingdom, Norway, Angola, and the United Arab Emirates also host multiple facilities among the worst polluters. In 2023, offshore oil and gas operators flared over 23 billion cubic metres of natural gas, generating approximately 60 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide. The largest sources of this were linked to infrastructure in Iran, Nigeria, and Mexico. Finally, vessel traffic to offshore oil and gas facilities generated at least nine million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide in the same year. That’s a carbon footprint larger than many small countries.
Guyana To Make Companies Liable For Oil Spill Damages -Guyana's government has submitted an oil pollution bill to the Parliament proposing to make responsible parties liable for damages caused by oil spills, including from vessels, according to a copy of the act published in the Official Gazette. The South American country, whose oil production is controlled by an Exxon Mobil-led consortium is expected to surpass 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, is trying to reinforce oversight of its nascent energy industry, where all crude and gas output comes from offshore fields. Responsible parties shall provide financial assurance to cover spills, conduct regular inspections and audits, and address any issues found, according to the bill, to be discussed by lawmakers in coming weeks. The bill includes penalties for companies that fail to comply with regulations, including the suspension of licenses to explore and produce oil for those that do not provide the financial assurance required. According to legislation previously approved, the net-zero carbon emission country does not allow routine flaring from vessels producing crude and gas offshore. More than 80% of Guyana's land is covered by forest. Guyana last year became Latin America's fifth largest oil exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. The Exxon group, which includes U.S. Hess and China's CNOOC, produced an average of 631,000 bpd of oil in the first quarter, 3% higher than in the same period last year. Under the proposed measure, the country's Oil Spill Committee would be assigned more formal duties to oversee the industry and coordinate response to any spills.
2015 oil spill: Nema orders KPC to clean Makueni river afresh | Daily Nation -The National Environment Management Authority (Nema) has walked back on a 2018 directive that had given oil polluted River Thange in Makueni County a clean bill of health. The agency on Friday con´rmed that soil and water sources in the area were still contaminated with oil. The environment agency directed the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) to clean the environment polluted by oil from its punctured pipeline. The leakage was ´rst discovered in 2015, prompting a raft of measures to restore the environment. "Citizens have a right to a clean environment. From Monday, we shall look into the restoration order so that KPC will undertake proper clean-up and follow the laws and regulations that are in place to safeguard citizens.We shall relook the whole thing now that we have new evidence coming up.We shall not allow citizens to utilise this environment in its current form," Nema boss Boru Mano told reporters when the agency toured the affected region in the company of the Senate Energy Committee and local leaders.
Vessel collision in Vietnam leads to oil spill -On April 25, containership KMTC Surabaya and bulk carrier Glengyle collided on Vietnam’s Long Tau River near Ho Chi Minh City, resulting in an oil spill. The collision happened at around 10:40 p.m. local time at milepost 15 on the Saigon–Vung Tau waterway. KMTC Surabay struck the port side of Glengyle, causing significant damage to the bulker’s after hold and stern. The force of the collision punctured Glengyle’s hull, and resulted in severe flooding, causing the vessel to partially sink and settle on the river’s shallow bottom. A fuel oil spill was observed leaking from the bulker’s tanks. Meanwhile, the KMTC Surabaya’s bow sustained visible damage and remained interlocked with Glengyle, with tugs on scene monitoring the situation as of Saturday. Despite the serious structural damage, no casualties or cargo losses were initially reported. Vietnamese authorities dispatched rescue vessels to separate the ships and launched oil spill containment efforts. Additionally, authorities issued maritime notices to restrict traffic near the accident site and warned vessels to avoid the area, while cleanup and salvage operations continued.
Fitch Ratings lowered its oil price forecast for this year -- International rating agency Fitch Ratings has updated its forecast for average oil prices for the years 2025–2028, APA-Economics reports citing Fitch’s base forecast.The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be: $65 per barrel in 2025 (previous forecast – $70), $65 in 2026, $65 in 2027 (no changes in forecasts for 2026–2027), and $60 in 2028 (no change for 2028). According to the forecast, the price of WTI crude oil is projected to be: $60 per barrel in 2025 (previous forecast – $65), $60 in 2026, $60 in 2027, and $57 in 2028 (forecasts for 2026–2028 remain unchanged).The report also notes that in 2024, the average price of Brent was $80.5, while WTI averaged $76.6.
Oil edges lower amid uncertainty over US-China trade talks - Oil prices slightly decreased on Monday amid uncertainty over trade talks between the US and China, as well as concerns about a potential oversupply in global oil markets. International benchmark Brent crude fell by around 0.06%, trading at $65.83 per barrel at 10.37 am local time (0737 GMT), down from $65.87 at the previous session's close. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate declined by about 0.13%, reaching $62.85 per barrel, compared to its prior session close of $62.93. US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published Friday, stated that tariff negotiations were underway with China, though Beijing denied any talks were taking place. This adds to a series of mixed signals about the progress of efforts to ease a trade war. Trump mentioned that the US had made 200 tariff deals and claimed that China's President Xi Jinping had called him. Conflicting statements on US-China trade talks are fueling concerns about the global oil demand outlook. Concerns over a potential oversupply in global oil markets also weighed on prices. Eight OPEC+ countries are reportedly considering accelerating production hikes for a second consecutive month in June. This comes after the group's decision to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May, up from the initially planned 138,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are scheduled to hold a video conference on May 5 to decide on supply plans for June. Moreover, diplomatic developments related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran, are raising concerns about increased oil supply. US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met on Saturday—their first face-to-face encounter since a tense White House meeting in February—at the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City. Discussing the meeting, Trump told reporters, 'I think the meeting went well. We'll see what happens over the next few days.' Regarding nuclear talks with Iran, Trump expressed optimism, stating, 'The Iran situation, I think we're doing very well. I think a deal is going to be made there... We'll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place.' The third round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in the Omani capital Muscat concluded on Saturday, Iranian state media reported. Delegations from both countries returned to their capitals for consultations before reconvening for another round next Saturday.
Brent crude oil prices drop on demand fears (Reuters) - Brent crude oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday morning as economic worries from the U.S.-China trade war were pressuring demand. Brent crude futures settled at $65.86 a barrel, down $1.01, or 1.51%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $62.05 a barrel, down 97 cents or 1.545%. Brent futures rose marginally in the previous two sessions, but finished last Friday with a weekly loss of more than 1%. The U.S.-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, said analyst John Evans of brokerage PVM, superseding nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran and discord within the OPEC+ coalition. "This wait-and-see attitude coming out of the U.S.-China talks is leaving a bad taste in peoples' mouths," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research for Tradition Energy. "If the talks go bad, you could see a drop in demand for oil from China." Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that could sap global growth. In the latest comment from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back Trump's assertion that negotiations with China were underway. Earlier, Beijing denied any talks were taking place. "A lot of the feeling in the market is how is it going to be playing out in the next 24 to 48 hours?" said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "Are we going to be bombing Iran? Is China going to be buying more crude?" Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to suggest that the group accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5. "Sentiment has turned more bearish since our forecast last month with OPEC+'s more aggressive unwind – and accompanying doubts about unity within the cartel – the key change," said BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer in a note. BNP Paribas expects Brent in the high $60s per barrel in the second quarter of this year, the note said. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he remained "extremely cautious" about the success of the negotiations, asnuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman continue this week. In Iran, a powerful explosion at its biggest port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday.
Uncertainty Over Trade Talks and the Prospect of Increased OPEC+ Supply - The crude market on Monday posted another outside trading day as the market continued to weigh the uncertainty over trade talks and the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply continue to cast a shadow on the overall outlook. The market rallied higher on the opening and quickly breached its previous high of $63.41 as it posted a high of $63.92. However, the market just as quickly erased its sharp gains. The market remained pressured throughout the day, breaching its previous low of $61.80 as it posted a low of $61.48 ahead of the close. Concerns over weaker global demand due to the U.S.-China trade war continue to drag on sentiment, with mixed signals surrounding the status of negotiations. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, did not back President Donald Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were underway. The market was also pressured by expectations that some OPEC+ members will suggest that the group accelerate oil output increases for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5th. The June WTI contract settled down 97 cents at $62.05 and the June Brent contract settled down $1.01 at $65.86. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 82 points at $2.1755 and the RB market settling down 1.31 cents at $2.1058. On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not back President Donald Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were under way and said he did not know if the U.S. President had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. President Trump himself has said talks on tariffs were taking place with China and that he and China’s President have spoken. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said he had interactions with his Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, but did not mention tariffs. In a separate television interview on Sunday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the U.S. was holding daily conversations with China over tariffs, but did not elaborate. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry said President Xi Jinping had not spoken to Donald Trump recently, nor were their respective administrations trying to strike a tariff deal, contradicting the U.S. President’s claim. S&P Global Commodities at Sea is estimating European imports of diesel and gasoil in April should reach 3.8 million mt some 8% less than March levels. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.33 million bpd of capacity in the week ending May 2nd, increasing available refining capacity by 293,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 971,000 bpd in the week ending May 9th. The Trump administration issued an emergency waiver to allow the sale of a higher-ethanol gasoline blend to be sold this summer nationwide, saying it will add to fuel supply during the peak U.S. driving season and bring down costs. The government currently restricts sales of E15 gasoline in summer months due to environmental concerns over smog, which the biofuel industry says are unfounded. The emergency waiver will go into effect on May 1st. The Environmental Protection Agency, which issued the waiver, said it expects to extend the waiver until it no longer deems it necessary.
Oil prices decline as trade war clouds demand outlook - Crude oil prices declined during Asian trade on Tuesday as investors scaled back their expectations for demand growth amid the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. By 2:50 pm AEST (4:50 am GMT), Brent crude futures fell $0.53 or 0.8% to US$65.33, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined $0.47 or 0.8% to $61.58 a barrel. Markets have been unsettled by mixed messages from U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing regarding the progress of efforts to ease a trade war that threatens global economic growth. Bessent said he spoke with his Chinese counterparts at last week’s International Monetary Fund meetings about “traditional things like financial stability, global economic early warnings”, without directly addressing tariffs. Meanwhile, Chinese officials continue to deny any tariff negotiations with the U.S., stating that no discussions have taken place and refuting Trump’s claim that President Xi spoke with him on the matter. ANZ analysts observed: "Easing geopolitical risks also weighed on the market. The U.S. and Iran reported signs of progress in talks on a deal over Tehran’s nuclear program. The two sides agreed to meet again in Europe." Meanwhile, several members of OPEC+ — the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — are expected to propose accelerating output increases for a second consecutive month at their June meeting. In terms of upcoming data, the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its estimates on U.S. oil inventories later in the session (Wednesday AEST), with official figures from the Energy Information Administration set to follow on Wednesday (Thursday AEST).
Oil Slumps as Consumer Confidence Sinks | Rigzone - Oil dropped as the global trade war hurt the outlook for demand, with data indicating signs of strain in the US economy. West Texas Intermediate slipped 2.6% to settle around $60 a barrel, the lowest close in more than two weeks. The widely referenced US consumer confidence gauge weakened significantly in data released Tuesday, another sign of the pessimism stemming from President Donald Trump’s levies. Additional reports due this week, including manufacturing data out of China, will shed further light on the economic strength of the world’s biggest importer of crude. A handful of spreads along the futures curve traded in contango on Tuesday as traders brace for a “meaningful surplus” in the future, according to Morgan Stanley. At present, Brent’s nearer months are still pricier than those next in sequence, forming a rare configuration with little historical precedent, according to the firm. US crude is on track for the largest monthly loss since 2021, with prices battered by tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and its trading partners, as well as by OPEC+’s plans to revive more production. While many countries are entering into trade negotiations with Washington, Beijing says it has so far declined to engage. There is now an “elevated probability” that Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC+ nations opt to accelerate planned supply increases at the upcoming May 5 meeting, JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note. “It is becoming clear to the market that growth over recent months has primarily been driven by stockpiling and pre-tariff hoarding,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “That effect is fading, which could lead to a sharp decline in US growth as consumption starts drawing down existing inventories instead of boosting production.” Geopolitical tensions are showing signs of cooling, increasing the prospect of supplies from some nations. Discussions about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activity have signaled progress, with the country also pitching its sanctioned economy as an investment opportunity to the US. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a new three-day truce in his war on Ukraine that will start on May 8. Still, Putin is insisting that Russia must take control of four regions of Ukraine it doesn’t fully occupy as part of any agreement to end his war. Elsewhere, Spain and Portugal returned to some semblance of normality after suffering Europe’s worst blackout in years, which forced several oil refineries to halt. WTI for June delivery retreated 2.6% to settle at $60.42 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement fell 2.4% to settle at $64.25 a barrel.
Concerns Over a Protracted Trade War Could Reduce Global Economic Growth Recap: The oil market on Tuesday continued to trade lower as the concerns over a protracted trade war between the U.S. and China could reduce global economic growth and demand. The market was also pressured by expectations that OPEC+ will increase its output by accelerating its output hikes for the second consecutive month. The market also traded lower as expectations that progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations could lead to lifted sanctions and thus an increase in supply. The crude market traded sideways and posted a high of $62.07 in overnight trading. However, the market breached its previous low and sold off throughout the session to a low of $60.23 ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled down $1.63 at $60.42 and the June Brent contract settled down $1.61 at $64.25. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.51 cents at $2.1204 and the RB market settling down 3.46 cents at $2.0712. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an order giving automakers building vehicles in the U.S. relief from part of his new 25% vehicle tariffs to allow them time to bring parts supply chains back home. He said automakers would receive credits for up to 15% of the value of vehicles assembled in the U.S. that could be applied against the value of imported parts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs see oil demand as resilient for now. Based on its global tracking, oil demand is on par with where it was a year ago. It said one of the positives on the global demand side and thus prices is that Chinese officials are looking to provide support for industries and exports that are especially impacted by tariffs. According to Morgan Stanley, Brent futures prices are pointing to near-term tightness while also showing a “meaningful surplus” further out. Morgan Stanley analysts said the Brent forward curve is downward sloping across the first nine contracts and upward sloping thereafter. The analysts said the contango after the ninth month signals a rapid weakening later this year, with slowing demand and strong supply growth driving a surplus. Morgan Stanley estimates that Brent is expected to fall back into the low $60s/barrel later this year. U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nearly five-year low in March as increasing concerns over tariffs weighed on the economic outlook. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points to 86.0 in March, the lowest reading since May 2020. Economists had forecast the index falling to 87.5. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 0.9 point to 133.5. The Expectations Index fell 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead..
Crude Oil Prices Extend Losses as Oversupply and Trade Worries Hit Sentiment -The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning. WTI is trading back below $60/bbl while ICE Brent is down about 15% this month, with prices about to witness their record monthly loss. Lingering tariff risks and expectations of OPEC+ loosening output curbs continue to pressure oil prices. Meanwhile, a bearish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) further weighed on prices. Numbers overnight from the API show that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.8m barrels over the last week, in contrast to the 0.8m barrel draw the market was expecting. Cushing crude oil stocks increased by 674k barrels. As for refined products, the API estimates that gasoline stocks decreased by 3.1m barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.5m barrels. Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, demand for Middle East crude appears to remain stable, with the market expecting Saudi Arabia to raise the official selling price by around US$0.3/bbl for Asian buyers for June deliveries. Earlier, Saudi Arabia reduced its official selling price for its Arab Light grade into Asia for May loading by US$2.30/bbl – the biggest cut since 2022. In its latest forecasts, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the global copper market to see a supply surplus of 289kt in 2025, largely on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, compared to the 194kt of surplus projected earlier and 138kt of surplus seen last year. However, the surplus is expected to ease slightly to 209kt in 2026 amid a continued demand recovery. On the supply side, global mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year this year and by a further 2.5% YoY in 2026 following the additions from new mines. Global refined output is projected to increase by 2.9% YoY this year and 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity and the start-up of new capacity in other countries, most notably Indonesia, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Total apparent refined copper consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.4% YoY in 2025 and would see a further expansion of 1.8% YoY in 2026, with Asian nations driving most of the demand growth. In China, the recent US tariffs diverted copper away from the country, leading to a significant decline in domestic inventories and eventually encouraging the buying interest and lifting prices. Recent data from Shanghai Metals Market shows that the Yangshan copper premium (amount paid by Chinese consumers above the exchange price) continued to expand and stood at $94/t (the highest level since 18 December 2023) as of 29 April, compared to just $35/t at the end of February. This rise was largely driven by market tightness, supported by strong domestic demand and declining exchange inventories. The threats of recent US copper tariffs have driven a large flow of copper into the US. Chinese warehouse inventories fell by 54,858 tonnes (the biggest weekly decline on record) for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday (the lowest since the end of January 2025). The latest LME COTR report released yesterday shows that speculators decreased their net long position in copper by 3,529 lots to 64,806 lots for the week ending 25 April, the lowest since the week ending 17 January 2025. Similarly, net bullish bets for aluminium fell by 1,649 lots for an eighth consecutive week to 79,412 lots at the end of last week. This is the lowest net long since 15 September 2023. Meanwhile, money managers increased net bullish bets for zinc by 772 lots after declining for five consecutive weeks to 4,339 lots as of last Friday.
WTI 'Off The Lows' After Large Crude/Gasoline Inventory Draws; Pump-Prices Set To Tumble - Oil prices extended their recent plunge this morning as traders expect Saudi Arabia to steer OPEC+ to agree on another supply surge next week as the kingdom continues its campaign to discipline the cartel’s errant members.“History shows that when OPEC+ leadership decides to encourage compliance by supply pressure, it does not stop until it achieves its goal,” said Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official.Overnight we saw a mixed bag from API (big crude build and bid product draws). Now let's see what the official data has to show... API
- Crude +3.8mm
- Cushing +674k
- Gasoline -3.1mm
- Distillates -2.5mm
DOE
- Crude -2.696mm
- Cushing +682k
- Gasoline -4.003mm
- Distillates +937k
The official data was just as mixed but showed a sizable draw in crude inventories and gasoline stocks (fell for the ninth week in a row)... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Even including a large 1.065mm barrel addition to the SPR, total US Crude stocks fell last week... US crude production remains near record highs but 'drill baby drill' is not so obvious in the rig count data...
Oil Plunges On Report Saudis Bracing For Price War, Can "Live With Lower Oil Prices" It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record... and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices. This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members - most notably Kazakhstan - took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members. Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said. Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.
Is Saudi Arabia Preparing for Another Oil Price War? --US benchmark WTI crude is down nearly 4% as Saudi Arabia reports emerge that not only can the Saudis sustain today’s low oil prices, but output increases are likely to be announced next week, for June output, sources speaking to both Reuters and Bloomberg have indicated. On Wednesday, Reuters cited five unnamed sources as saying that the Saudis have no intention of boosting oil markets with further supply cuts, as Riyadh’s budget can tolerate sustained low prices.On the contrary, sources are suggesting that the Saudis could start producing more to grab more market share after sacrificing production for OPEC+ voluntary cuts for so long. Additionally, Bloomberg on Wednesday cited oil traders as saying they expect the Saudis to now push the cartel for another supply boost next week for June, and that this time it will be exponentially larger. “History shows that when OPEC+ leadership decides to encourage compliance by supply pressure, it does not stop until it achieves its goal,” Bloomberg quoted Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official, as saying on Wednesday.Earlier this month, OPEC+ announced it would advance the cartel’s planned phase-out of voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May--equivalent to three monthly increments. That move was our first indication that the Saudis may be prepared to give up their role as swing producer, having for too long picked up the slack for OPEC+ quota violators who continue to overproduce, including Kazakhstan, the UAE and Iraq. Traders are also eyeing geopolitical motivations here, according to Bloomberg, with the Saudis attempting to appease Washington, which has called on OPEC to intervene to lower fuel costs by pumping even more. At 1:31 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading at $63.14, down 1.79%, while the U.S. crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading down a sharp 3.53%, to trade at $58.29.
The Oil Market Posted its Largest Monthly Decline Since November 2021 --The oil market continued to trend lower on Wednesday and posted an 18.56% decline in April, its largest monthly decline since November 2021 as the Trump administration’s tariff policy eroded the outlook for fuel demand while concerns over increasing supply also weighed on market sentiment. The market posted a high of $60.43 in overnight trading and continued on its downward trend amid some negative Chinese economic data showing China’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April. The crude market remained pressured by data showing the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years during the first quarter, deepening concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs and the global trade war. The market extended its losses to over $2.50 and retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $54.57 to a high of $64.87, as it posted a low of $57.91 in light of Saudi Arabia signaling it can live with lower oil prices, a possible shift that could suggest a move towards producing more and increasing its market share. The oil market later bounced off its low and retraced some of its losses ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled down $2.21 at $58.21 and the June Brent contract settled down $1.13 at $63.12. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 8.37 cents at $2.0367 and the RB market settling down 3.42 cents at $2.0370. The EIA reported that total U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.16 million bpd in February, up about 29,000 bpd from January. Crude oil output from New Mexico increased about 72,000 bpd to a record 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile, oil output in North Dakota fell by 35,000 bpd on the month. Crude oil output in Texas increased by 41,000 bpd on the month to 5.62 million bpd and output in offshore Gulf of Mexico fell by 39,000 bpd on the month. It reported that U.S. oil exports in February increased to 4.294 million bpd, up from 3.931 million bpd in January and total refined oil product exports fell to 2.779 million bpd in February from 2.914 million bpd in January. U.S. total oil demand in February increased by 1.4% or 276,000 bpd to 20.225 million bpd, with distillate demand increasing by 2% or 78,000 bpd to 3.997 million bpd and gasoline demand increasing by 0.9% or 80,000 bpd to 8.681 million bpd.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.32 million bpd of capacity in the week ending May 2nd, increasing available refining capacity by 302,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 971,000 bpd in the week ending May 9th.Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Iran will hold nuclear talks with the U.K., France and Germany in Rome on Friday, ahead of nuclear negotiations with the U.S. this weekend also to be held in Italy.The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, weighed down by a flood of goods imported by businesses eager to avoid higher costs, amid President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP that U.S. GDP fell at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter. Economists had forecast that GDP increased at a 0.3% pace in the January-March period. The economy grew at a 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter. It reported that imports increased at a 41.3% rate, the largest increase since the third quarter of 2020. That offset a modest increase in exports, resulting in a large trade gap that cut a record 4.83 percentage points from GDP.
Oil settles lower, posts steepest monthly decline since 2021 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down on Wednesday and recorded the largest monthly drop in almost 3-1/2 years after Saudi Arabia signaled a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, while the global trade war eroded the outlook for fuel demand. Brent crude futures settled $1.13, or 1.76%, lower at $63.12 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $2.21, or 3.66%, to close at $58.21, the lowest settlement since March 2021. For the month, Brent settled down 15% and WTI was down 18%, the biggest monthly percentage declines since November 2021. Both benchmarks slumped after Saudi Arabia, one of the world's biggest oil producers, signaled it was unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and could handle a prolonged period of low prices. "It raises concern that we could be headed towards another production war," "Are the Saudis trying to send a message that they are going to get back their market share? We'll have to wait and see." Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May. Several OPEC+ members will suggest a ramp-up of output increases for a second straight month in June, sources told Reuters last week. The group will meet on May 5 to discuss output plans. "The trade war directly reduces oil demand and hinders travel by consumers. Combined with OPEC’s unwinding of output cuts, the risk of oversupply is escalating," U.S. President Donald Trump's announced tariffs on all U.S. imports on April 2 and China responded with its own levies, stoking a trade war between the world's top two oil-consuming nations. Concerns over the global economy weakening continued to pressure oil prices. Data on Wednesday showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, weighed down by a deluge of goods imported by businesses eager to avoid higher costs. Trump's tariffs have made it probable the global economy will slip into recession this year, a Reuters poll suggested. U.S. consumer confidence, meanwhile, slumped to its lowest in nearly five years in April on growing concerns over tariffs, data showed on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week on higher export and refinery demand, limiting some price losses. Crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ended April 25, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 429,000-barrel rise.
Rebound in the Equities Market and a Postponement of U.S.-Iran Talks -- The oil market ended higher after it retraced some of its previous losses amid a rebound in the equities market and the postponement of U.S.-Iran talks offset any concerns over the U.S. economy and the possibility of increased OPEC+ output. The crude market continued its downward trend in overnight trading and posted a low of $56.39 early in the session in follow through selling seen on Wednesday. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced its losses as the equities market rallied on strong tech earnings from Meta and Microsoft. The market was also supported by the news that the fourth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, previously scheduled for Saturday, were postponed. Also, the possibility of additional sanctions on Russian crude lifted prices after U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said he has “broad support” for a bill that would enact new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on countries that buy its oil if Russia does not engage in serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The market’s gains further accelerated when President Trump said any country that buys any amount of oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be subject to secondary sanctions immediately. The market rallied to a high of $59.50 ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled up $1.03 at $59.24 and the July Brent contract settled up $1.07 at $62.13. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.02 cents at $2.0120 and the RB market settling up 3.15 cents at $2.0492. U.S. President Donald Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil and petrochemical products must stop and any country or person buying any form the country would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions.Earlier, Oman’s foreign minister posted on X today that a new round of talks between the United States and Iran scheduled for Saturday will be delayed due to “logistical reasons” and “new dates will be announced when mutually agreed.” U.S. officials though reportedly have said the U.S. never agreed to join the latest round of talks this weekend but that talks could still be held in the near future. Meanwhile Iranian news media was reporting Thursday the talks were being rescheduled at the request of Oman, which is hosting the talks.On Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran that it will face consequences for supporting the Houthis, even as the United States has relaunched talks with Iran over its nuclear program.A social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said the United States has approached China seeking talks over President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs.The U.S House of Representatives voted Thursday to bar California’s landmark plan to end the sale of gasoline-only vehicles by 2035 that has been adopted by 11 other states. The House backed legislation to repeal a waiver granted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under former President Joe Biden in December, allowing California to mandate at least 80% electric vehicles by 2035. The Senate now has until mid-May to vote on the California waivers.
Oil up 2% as Trump threatens new sanctions on Iran (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after a fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks was postponed. Brent crude futures settled at $62.13 a barrel, up $1.07, 1.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed $1.03, or 1.8%, higher at $59.24 a barrel.Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop and any country or person buying any from the country would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions.His comments follow the postponement of talks. which had been due to take place in Rome on Saturday, over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters a new date will be set depending on the U.S. approach."If the Trump administration is successful in enforcing secondary sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil that could lead to a reduction in supply of about a million and a half, barrels per day," "These low prices of oil are giving the Trump administration cover to more strictly enforce those sanctions, especially at a time that OPEC+ is producing well over their quota and looking to increase production." Several OPEC+ members are set to suggest the group accelerates output hikes in June for a second consecutive month, three people familiar with OPEC+ talks have said. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to decide a June output plan.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is telling allies and industry experts that it is unwilling to prop up the oil market with supply cuts and can manage a prolonged period of low prices, sources told Reuters.On the demand side, however, the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, data showed on Wednesday, swamped by a flood of imports as businesses raced to avoid higher costs from tariffs and underscoring the disruptive impact of Trump's unpredictable trade policy. Trump's tariffs have made it probable the global economy will slip into recession this year, a Reuters poll suggested.
Oil prices fall as traders adjust ahead of OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-China trade talks - Oil prices dropped on Friday as traders adjusted their positions ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting and with caution surrounding a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute. Brent crude futures declined by 56 cents, or 0.9%, to $61.57 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 61 cents, or 1%, to $58.63 per barrel. For the week, both Brent and WTI were on track to record 7% declines, marking the largest weekly drops in a month. China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it was “evaluating” a proposal from Washington to engage in talks over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, raising hopes for a possible easing of the ongoing trade tensions. However, oil markets remain cautious, as the broader trade war between the U.S. and China has raised concerns over global economic growth and oil demand. Additionally, the situation is complicated by President Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil, with China being the largest importer of Iranian crude. These developments follow the postponement of U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear program. Oil prices had briefly risen late on Thursday, following Trump’s comments, but concerns about a potential increase in OPEC+ output and the broader trade tensions kept prices under pressure. OPEC+ is preparing for a meeting on May 5 to decide on its output strategy for June. Several members are expected to push for accelerated output increases after the group raised production in April. However, Saudi Arabia has indicated that it may not take additional steps to support oil prices through further supply cuts.
Oil posts biggest weekly loss in a month ahead of OPEC+ meeting (Reuters) - Oil prices fell over 1% lower on Friday and recorded for their biggest weekly losses since the end of March, as traders turned cautious ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's output policy for June. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 95 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $58.29 a barrel. Brent crude futures closed down 84 cents, or 1.4%, at $61.29 a barrel. For the week, Brent fell over 8% and WTI lost about 7.7%. The OPEC+ meeting was moved up to Saturday from the original plan of Monday, three sources told Reuters on Friday, although it was not clear why the meeting was rescheduled. Members of the group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, are deliberating whether to make another accelerated oil output increase in June or stick with a smaller hike, two of the sources said. Either way, oil traders braced for more supply from the group, at a time when fears of an economic slowdown caused by a trade war between the U.S. and China have prompted market experts to lower demand growth expectations for this year. Reuters reported this week that officials from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, have briefed allies and industry experts that they are unwilling to prop up oil markets with further supply cuts. OPEC+ is currently cutting output by over 5 million barrels per day. Traders were also cautious given the possibility of a de-escalation of the trade dispute between China and the U.S. States, after Beijing on Friday said it was evaluating a proposal from Washington to hold talks to address U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. "There is some optimism when it comes to U.S.-China relations but the signs are only very tentative," Friday's oil price decline was kept in check by rising equity markets, as Wall Street climbed after U.S. jobs data showed payrolls increased more than expected last month. A threat by Trump on Thursday to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil also helped ease some of the pressure on oil prices, as it could tighten global supply. The threat, which came after U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear programme were postponed, could also complicate trade talks with China, which is the world's largest importer of Iran's crude. Signs of slowing U.S. oil output growth could also be somewhat supportive for oil prices from a longer-term point of view, U.S. drillers cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in three weeks, data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes showed. The oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by four to 479 this week.
Trump threatens sanctions on countries that buy oil from Iran -- President Trump has threatened sanctions on countries that are purchasing from Iran.“ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions,” Trump said Thursday in a post online. “They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form.” It’s unclear how Trump would implement the ban, but his alert is a threat that could escalate tensions with China, who is Iran’s top customer, during an already unstable time due to Trump’s tariffs, the Associated Press reported. The warning came after planned talks about Iran’s nuclear program were postponed. The discussion was set for this coming weekend, but Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said it was delayed for “logistical reasons.” New dates have not yet been mutually agreed to, he said.The talks were intended to constrict Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the U.S. lifting some economic sanctions. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran in early April.Trump expressed confidence ahead of the third round of talks with Iran, but it was unclear if the two countries could find common ground about eliminating or scaling back Iran’s nuclear program.It was also unclear if the Trump administration would try to strike a deal that resembles the Obama-era nuclear agreement that restricted Iran’s ability to create a nuclear weapon but allowed the infrastructure to remain intact.
Trump Threatens Major Sanctions on Countries Purchasing Iranian Oil - President Trump on Thursday threatened major sanctions on any country that purchases Iranian oil as he continues to ramp up the “maximum pressure campaign” against Tehran.“ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions,” the president wrote on Truth Social.“They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. Thank you for your attention to this matter, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP,” he added.The post effectively amounts to a threat to impose major sanctions on China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil. At this point, it’s unclear exactly what type of sanctions the US may try to place on China in response to Iranian oil purchases.
Amnesty International: Israel Carrying Out 'Live-Streamed Genocide' in Gaza - Amnesty International said in its annual human rights report that Israel is carrying out a “live-streamed genocide” as the world looks on.“Since 7 October 2023 – when Hamas perpetrated horrific crimes against Israeli citizens and others and captured more than 250 hostages – the world has been made audience to a live-streamed genocide,” Amnesty Secretary-General Agnes Callamard said in an introduction to the report.“States watched on as if powerless, as Israel killed thousands upon thousands of Palestinians, wiping out entire multigenerational families, destroying homes, livelihoods, hospitals, and schools,” Callamard added.The report said that Israel was committing the crime of genocide by “killing Palestinian civilians, causing serious bodily or mental harm, and deliberately inciting conditions of life calculated to bring about Palestinians’ physical destruction by causing mass forced displacement, obstructing or denying lifesaving aid, and by damaging or destroying life-sustaining infrastructure.”Amnesty first concluded Israel was committing genocide in Gaza in a report published in December 2024. The US has rejected the conclusion and has opposed the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice since US officials are implicated due to US military aid and other types of support for Israel.The new Amnesty report criticized some aspects of the domestic situation in the US and the US government’s support for Israel. “The continued supply of munitions to Israel violated US laws and policies regarding the transfer and sale of arms, intended to prevent arms transfers that risk contributing to civilian harm and violations of human rights or international humanitarian law,” Amnesty said.Amnesty said that it had identified US-made bombs used in “unlawful deadly airstrikes by the Israeli military on residential homes and a makeshift camp for displaced people in the occupied Gaza Strip.”
Mass starvation looms in Gaza as World Food Program says stocks have run out - After seven weeks of a full blockade of food, water, medical supplies and electricity, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) warned that it had delivered its last remaining food stocks to hot meal kitchens in Gaza, raising the prospect of imminent famine for the enclave’s remaining population. Israel, with the support of the Trump administration, has imposed a policy of deliberate mass starvation upon the people of Gaza, with the aim of ethnically cleansing them from their homeland in preparation for its annexation. As a result, nearly 3,700 children were diagnosed with acute malnutrition, an 80 percent increase over the 2,000 who were diagnosed in February. In a statement Friday, the World Food Program said that the final stocks it is distributing to hot meal kitchens are expected to fully run out within a matter of days. The hot meal kitchens are the last functional food distribution system operated by the United Nations in Gaza. On March 31, all of the World Food Program’s bakeries were forced to shut down. The same week, all remaining food parcels distributed by the WFP, containing two weeks of rations, were exhausted. The UN reported that over 116,000 metric tons of food—enough to feed the entire population of Gaza for two months—is stationed outside the borders of Gaza and is being blocked by Israeli forces. In its statement, the World Food Program said, “This is the longest closure the Gaza Strip has ever faced, exacerbating already fragile markets and food systems.” “Right now, it is probably the worst humanitarian situation ever seen throughout the war in Gaza,” UN spokesperson Jens Laerke said last week, noting that the entire population of Gaza is facing acute shortages of food, medicine, fuel and clean water. In a statement published earlier this month, the Oxfam charity, together with other aid agencies, declared that “Famine is not just a risk, but likely rapidly unfolding in almost all parts of Gaza.” Michael Fakhri, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food, told Al Jazeera Sunday that “the United States is complicit in the genocide, in the starvation of civilians.” He added, “On March 3, Netanyahu announced that Israel would stop all goods and humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. This was over 50 days ago.” He continued: Let’s recall that there is an international criminal warrant against Netanyahu and former minister Gallant for the crime of starvation, for crimes of humanity, for mass murder, and yet they continue announcing their intentions and executing this starvation campaign with no repercussions under international law. There is no condition in which anyone can deny humanitarian aid to civilians. He added: Who controls the borders, who controls the flow of goods and humanitarian aid? Who controls everything that goes in and out of Gaza? It is Israel. What we saw in the last month alone, child acute malnutrition increased by over 80 percent, so they’re using children’s lives and the death of thousands in this negotiation process.
Israel Bombs Humanitarian Aid Flotilla on Way to Gaza -A ship carrying supplies bound for the Gaza Strip was attacked by Israeli drones in international waters on Friday, according to the activist group that organized the flotilla. The vessel reportedly took at least one direct hit to its hull and sustained damage from fire, forcing its crew to issue an urgent call for help.Organizers with the Freedom Flotilla Coalition (FFC) said one of their vessels was attacked by an unidentified drone in the early hours of Friday morning, noting the ship was not far off the coast of Malta when it was hit.“At 00:23 Maltese time, the Conscience, a Freedom Flotilla Coalition ship, came under direct attack in international waters,” the group said in a press release. “Armed drones attacked the front of an unarmed civilian vessel twice, causing a fire and a substantial breach in the hull. [. . .] The drone strike appears to have deliberately targeted the ship’s generator, leaving the crew without power and placing the vessel at great risk of sinking.”An FFC spokesperson, Caoimhe Butterly, later told Reuters that the ship was struck en route to Malta, where it was scheduled to pick up other activists, among them climate campaigner Greta Thunberg and retired US Army Colonel Mary Ann Wright. The group said it had arranged the aid shipment “under a media black out to avoid any potential sabotage.”The FFC also shared footage which allegedly shows the aftermath of the strike, with smoke and flames seen on the ship. At one point in the brief video, an apparent explosion can be heard.In a second press release, the group later shared a photo of the damage sustained in the strike.Maltese authorities said they received an SOS call from a vessel in international waters soon after midnight local time, adding that a nearby tugboat assisted the ship, according to Reuters. Officials added that the crew of the Conscience declined to board the tugboat, and also confirmed to CNN that the fire on the ship had been extinguished. No casualties have been reported in the attack.
Smotrich: Israel Will Stop Fighting Once 'Hundreds of Thousands' of Palestinians Are Removed from Gaza -Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said Israel would stop its military operations only if “hundreds of thousands” of Palestinians are removed from Gaza and Syria is partitioned, among other conditions, The Times of Israel reported on Tuesday.“With God’s help and the valor of your comrades-in-arms who continue to fight even now, we will end this campaign when Syria is dismantled, Hezbollah is severely beaten, Iran is stripped of its nuclear threat, Gaza is cleansed of Hamas and hundreds of thousands of Gazans are on their way out of it to other countries, our hostages are returned, some to their homes and some to the graves of Israel, and the State of Israel is stronger and more prosperous,” Smotrich said in a speech at a Jewish settlement in the West Bank.Smotrich, a West Bank settler himself, is a major proponent of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the collective punishment of the civilian population. He said last year that it may be “moral and justified” for Israel to starve millions of Palestinians in Gaza to death.Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party, has significant power in the Israeli government and threatened to quit the coalition if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t break the ceasefire deal that was signed in January and restart the genocidal war after the first phase was completed.Smotrich recently visited the US and received a warm welcome from the Trump administration. He met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and thanked the administration for the “unequivocal support of the State of Israel in the critical war of existence we are waging.”
Israel Strikes Metro Damascus, Say They Will ‘Protect’ Druze - Sectarian fighting in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana left at least 18 dead yesterday, and Israel is already looking to parlay that into a new excuse for military action against the Syrian government, with the idea that they need to “protect” the Druze minority militarily.The Israeli military reported attacking the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya, and that they targeted an “extremist group” that was planning new attacks on the Druze. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz issued statements demanding the Syrian government take action to prevent further attacks on the Druze.Details of the strike are still scant. Indeed, Syria’s Interior Ministry said they had yet to receive word that the Israeli attack even took place at all. Since Israel launches a large number of attacks inside Syria regularly, it’s not necessarily improbable that they launched one on Sahnaya, but it appears not to have been particularly large.
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