oil prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks after Trump announced a trade deal with the UK ahead of US-china trade talks, raising hopes that the worst impacts of the trade war could be avoided…after trading at a four year low while falling 7.5% to $58.29 a barrel last week on weak economic reports from the US and China and on signs that the Saudis would try to expand their market share, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for June delivery dropped sharply in Asian trading on Monday after OPEC and its allies announced an accelerated pace of production hikes, raising fears of a looming supply surplus in a market already grappling with demand uncertainty, then gapped lower on the OPEC decision at the open in New York and quickly hit a low of $55.30, before retracing those losses and recovering to the opening gap, and settling with a loss of $1.16 or 2%, at a new four year low of $57.13 a barrel, as the OPEC+ decision to expedite its output hikes stoked fears about rising global supply at a time when the demand outlook was increasingly uncertain…however, oil prices rebounded sharply early Tuesday, driven by technical buying and bargain hunting after the price had hit multi-year lows in the previous session, then backfilled and closed Monday’s opening price gap, supported by signs that production from the U.S. might contract in the months ahead, and settled $1.96, or 3.4% higher at $59.09 a barrel on signs of higher demand in Europe and China, lower production in the U.S., and ongoing tensions in the Middle East….oil traded higher on global markets early Wednesday, amid news that the US and China would start trade talks this weekend, but erased its early gains in New York trading as the market remained concerned about oversupply at a time when U.S. tariffs had increased concerns about demand, and settled $1.02, or 1.73%, lower at $58.07 a barrel after the Fed said economic uncertainty had increased and there was a risk of higher unemployment and inflation…but oil prices surged on global markets early Thursday following Trump’s announcement of an impending trade agreement with a major economic power, igniting hopes for a pullback in his tariff policies, then followed with a strong move to the upside during trading in New York after Trump unveiled the framework of the trade agreement with the U.K., and settled $1.84, or 3.2% higher at $59.91 a barrel, buoyed by hopes of a breakthrough in looming trade talks between the U.S. and China, the world's two largest oil consumers….oil prices rose modestly during Asian trading on Friday, as easing trade tensions between the United States and China supported market sentiment, while a freshly announced trade deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom contributed to the uptick, then extended those gains Friday morning in New York as the first official meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials to discuss trade terms sparked hopes of a softening of U.S. trade and tariff policies, and settled $1.11 higher at $61.02 a barrel as the U.S. trade deal with the U.K. had turned traders optimistic ahead of talks between top officials from Washington and Beijing and left oil prices 4.9% higher for the week...
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for a second week, after falling through most of March and April, on recovering LNG demand, lower production, and a forecast for a hot summer…after rising 16.6% to $3.630 per mmBTU last week on a drop in daily output and on forecasts for more weather driven demand than had been expected, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery opened 1.4 cents higher on Monday, but then dwindled lower through midday as weather forecasts remained unsupportive, and ended 8.0 cents lower at $3.550 per mmBTU on forecasts for lower demand next week than had been previously expected, and on a decline in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants… the price of the June contract started 1.4 cents lower on Tuesday and again moved lower after an initial spurt, as shoulder season conditions continue to sap demand, and settled 8.7 cents lower at $3.463 per mmBTU on lower flows to LNG export plants and on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than was previously forecast…however, natural gas opened 13.4 cents higher on Wednesday, after jumping overnight due to reduced production reports and bullish weather forecasts for the back half of the month, then traded within a tight band near $3.610 throughout the afternoon before settling 15.8 cents higher at $3.621 per mmBTU on the return of the Freeport LNG plant to service, and on lower output from producing wells…natural gas opened 6.2 higher on Thursday, and traded near $3.650 leading up to the weekly storage report, before tumbling to an intraday low of $3.531 shortly after midday on a larger than expected injection of natural gas into storage and settling 2.9 cents lower at $3.592 per mmBTU on mild weather and the big storage build…natural gas prices rose early Friday as traders shrugged off a bearish storage print and focused on forecasts for early summer heat, then rallied in afternoon trading on lagging production, rising exports and a hot summer forecast to settle 20.3 cents higher at $3.795 per mmBTU and thus finish up 4.5% for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending May 2nd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 104 billion cubic feet to 2,145 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 412 billion cubic feet, or 16.1% below the 2,557 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on May 2nd of last year, but 30 billion cubic feet, or 1.4% more than the five-year average of 2,115 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 2nd of May over the most recent five years….the 104 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was was in line with the 101 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast by a Reuters' poll of analysts ahead of the report, while it was more than the 81 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as more than the average 79 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late-April early May week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 2nd indicated that after an increase in our oil imports and a decrease in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the fourth time in fourteen weeks, and for the 25th time in forty-three weeks, despite a decrease in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 557,000 barrels per day to average 6,056,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 90,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 115,000 barrels per day to average 4,006,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,050,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending May 2nd, an average of 672,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 442,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 98,000 barrels per day lower at 13,367,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,859,000 barrels per day during the May 2nd reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,071,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 2nd, an average of 7,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 207,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending May 2nd averaged a rounded 5,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +5,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a small error or omission in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since 550,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 545,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are useless….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 207,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 290,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 83,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventieth SPR increase in the past eighty weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,786,000 barrels per day last week, which was 13.3% less than the 6,675,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 98,000 barrels per day lower at 13,367,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 80,000 barrels per day lower at 12,942,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 18,000 barrels per day lower at 425,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was still 2.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 37.8% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 89.0% of their capacity while processing those 16,071,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 2nd, their highest utilization rate in sixteen weeks, up from their 88.6% utilization rate of a week earlier, but down from the 91.7% utilization rate of sixteen weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the onset of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 16,071,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.8% more than the 15,948,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending April 26th of 2024, but were 2.0% less than the 16,405,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending May 3rd, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 88.9%, also low for this time of year…
With little change in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was quite a bit higher, increasing by 253,000 barrels per day to 9,710,000 barrels per day during the week ending May 2nd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 616,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 2.3% more than the 9,495,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending May 3rd of last year, but was 4.1% less than the gasoline production of 10,129,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending May 3rd, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 4,650,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 15,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with that production increase, our distillates output was 2.8% less than the 4,783,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending May 3rd of 2024, and 8.6% less than the 5,089,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending May 3rd, 2019…
With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the first time in ten weeks, increasing by 188,000 barrels to 225,728,000 barrels during the week ending May 2nd, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,003,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 381,000 barrels per day to 8,717,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 184,000 barrels per day to 765,000 barrels per day and even though our exports of gasoline rose by 270,000 barrels per day to 975,000 barrels per day….But after eleven gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirteen weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.0% lower than last May 3rd’s gasoline inventories of 228,002,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With the modest increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 12th time in 15 weeks, decreasing by 1,107,000 barrels to 107,815,000 barrels during the week ending May 2nd, after our distillates supplies had increased by 937,000 barrels barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 29,000 to 3,521,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates rose by 380,000 barrels per day to 1,404,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 18,000 barrels per day to 117,000 barrels per day...But after 41 inventory withdrawals over the past 68 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 8.3% below the 116,410,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on May 3rd of 2024, and were still about 13% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the increase in our oil imports and the decrease in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 27th time over the past year, decreasing by 2,032,000 barrels over the week, from 440,408,000 barrels on April 25th to 438,376,000 barrels on May 2nd, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 2,696,000 barrels over the prior week… After that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories fell to 7% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of May over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this May 2nd were 4.6% less than the 459,528,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on May 3rd of 2024, and 5.2% less than the 462,584,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 5th of 2023, but were 3.3% more than the 424,214,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on May 6th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count decreased by six during the week ending May 9th, the sixth decrease in eight weeks, as 5 rigs targeting oil and 1 miscellaneous rig were removed, while rigs targeting natural gas were unchanged...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 9th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (May 2nd) and this week’s (May 9th) count, the third column shows last week’s May 2nd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 10th of May, 2024…
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Ohio house budget proposal includes funding for possible pipeline - Star Beacon - The state house’s budget proposal includes funding for the study and possible construction of natural gas and oil pipelines running from Ashtabula to Columbiana counties. Four organizations would receive $210,000 each fiscal year, as part of the amendment:
— Eastgate Regional Council of Governments.
— The Ohio Regional Valley Development Commission.
— The Ohio Mid-Eastern Government Association.
— Buckeye Hills Regional Council.
Ohio 65th District Representative David Thomas said the original amendment was introduced by the members of the Lake to River Caucus.The caucus, whose creation was announced Jan. 14, includes all state representatives from Ashtabula, Trumbull, Mahoning and Columbiana counties.Thomas said they are interested in a possible natural gas pipeline along State Route 11. “This is the perfect example of something that would help us develop and grow,” he said. Thomas is also interested in having broadband go along with it, he said.“Depending on the results of the study, we might be able to move forward,” he said. Thomas said the study would look into how feasible a pipeline could be, the possible environmental impact of a pipeline and who owns property where a pipeline might be placed.Thomas estimates a study would take about a year, he said. “[A pipeline] aligns with our goal to expand Ohio energy,” he said.
Thomas considers a pipeline to be a safer alternative to transporting fossil fuels by train or tanker trucks, he said.
Ohio commission delays decision on fracking in Egypt Valley Wildlife Area- The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission on Monday delayed decisions on whether to accept bids from oil and gas companies to drill on three areas of public land in Eastern Ohio.One of the decisions delayed was for 4,360 acres in the Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County near the West Virginia border – the second largest tract the commission has considered for oil and gas development since it began considering proposals for hydraulic fracturing in state parks, wildlife areas and rights-of-way two years ago.In addition to the Egypt Valley tract, the other two areas delayed were 382 acres in Jockey Hollow Wildlife Area on the border of Belmont and Harrison counties and 9.8 acres of Ohio Department of Transportation-owned right-of-way along State Route 821 in Guernsey County. When a reporter approached the commission chairperson to ask about the delay, a law enforcement officer stopped her by grabbing her by the arm. Commission Chairwoman Theresa White, who is the chief operating officer of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, recommended the panel bring up the three tracts for discussion only and no vote. There was no discussion. Cleveland.com/The Plain Dealer was unable to ask White why the tracts were even on the agenda if she didn’t want to schedule a vote for them.ODNR spokeswoman Karina Cheung said that the commission is required to meet within 120 days once it receives a nomination. The commission is required to approve or disprove pending nominations within two calendar quarters, or 180 days, of nomination. The nominations that were delayed Monday will be brought up at a future meeting, she said.The three tracts were nominated by oil and gas companies in December. The identities of the companies that nominated the tracts are not revealed, according to state law.“This new chair has been tabling nominations if it’s not at 180 days,” said Cathy Cowan Becker, board chair of Save Ohio Parks, an environmental group fighting hydraulic fracturing on public land. “We don’t know why.”In general, the commission doesn’t discuss the tracts at the meetings, she said. They are supposed to consider the nominations’ effects on geology in the area, state agencies, the environment, whether gas production is compatible with current uses.“They don’t discuss any of this,” Cowan Becker said. “It’s almost a rubber-stamping process. It’s just nomination X, ‘We recommend to vote this or that way,’ and they take a vote. These meeting are very short.”Also at Monday’s meeting, the commission approved nominations on the below two tracts:
- -3.6 acres at Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, which will allow the commission to accept bids from oil and gas producers;
- -A 0.7-acre right-of-way along State Route 151 in Harrison County which will allow the Ohio Department of Transportation, which controls the land, to begin the process of leasing it to a producer.
Cheung said those nominations would go out to bid in July.Although the public land is small, environmentalists say that fracking chemicals used to break open the shale in Eastern Ohio and release the gas could flow into other nearby water. The commission rejected a nomination for 52 acres of land in Belmont County partially in an ODOT right-of-way along State Route 7, since ODOT said that they didn’t control all the land that was nominated.In addition to the Egypt Valley tract, the other two areas delayed were 382 acres in Jockey Hollow Wildlife Area on the border of Belmont and Harrison counties and 9.8 acres of Ohio Department of Transportation-owned right-of-way along State Route 821 in Guernsey County.When a reporter approached the commission chairperson to ask about the delay, a law enforcement officer stopped her by grabbing her by the arm.Commission Chairwoman Theresa White, who is the chief operating officer of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, recommended the panel bring up the three tracts for discussion only and no vote. There was no discussion.
Ohio opens more state land for fracking, bars reporter from asking questions --Ohio’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission on Monday approved putting another parcel of an eastern Ohio wildlife area up for bid by fracking companies. Energy companies can now bid to frack for oil and gas under more than 3.6 acres of the Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County. Last year, the Commission awarded Encino Energy more than300 acres of Valley Run for drilling. Before the meeting, members of the volunteer group Save Ohio Parks and others rallied against the latest drilling nominations, voicing concerns about water and air pollution from fracking. Drilling in wildlife areas “is not a compatible use pairing,” said Carrie Gibbons of Athens, Ohio. “Unless you are only looking at the short term.” In February, Save Ohio Parks was among 30 organizations that delivered a letter to Governor DeWine, asking him to issue a moratorium on fracking under the state-owned lands.. “Fracking is not going to end well,” said Lea Harper, of the group Freshwater Accountability Project, who drove two hours to attend the commission meeting. “So I’m here because of my conscience. I have to keep doing this – I have to try to keep speaking truth to power, and try to save our water, and try to save what’s beautiful in the region.” The commission deferred action on nominations to frack under two southeastern Ohio wildlife areas: nearly 383 acres under Jockey Hollow in Harrison County, and 4360 acres under Egypt Valley in Belmont County. The state has already awarded over 30 acres of Egypt Valley to Gulfport Appalachia for fracking. The commission also adopted changes to extend the lease agreements from three to five years. These changes “must be considered by Ohio’s Common Sense Initiative,” according to a spokesperson at the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), and will be posted for public comment before they are finalized. After the commission meeting ended, cleveland.com and Plain Dealer (PD) reporter Laura Hancock approached Chair Theresa White to ask her questions. According to the PD, she had walked by two police officers, who were standing in the aisle leading to White. Hancock told the officers she wanted to ask White some questions, but they did not respond. Hancock said she walked past them and began talking to White. “I didn’t even get to the bottom of the question when one of the officers was pulling my arm … and leading me away to an area where I couldn’t finish my questions,” Hancock told the PD. “I have never ever been touched by a police officer. I’m a law-abiding person, so I was really kind of shocked.” Hancock said at least six armed officers were at the meeting. Rick Rouan, the politics editor for the publications, has reportedly lodged a formal complaint with Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s office. DeWine spokesman Dan Tierney told the PD that his office is looking into the matter. Hancock, a veteran reporter, said that even though she wasn’t harmed, being removed during an interview was a new experience for her. “Why are these people so precious that they can’t answer questions?” Hancock said in the PD that the move to block a reporter was more in the “spirit of authoritarianism” than that of a democracy. “I know that’s sort of how things are turning in America and probably in Ohio, as well, but – no – not in my America. Not in my Ohio,” she said. ODNR said that in light of this incident, it is “looking to find better ways to handle media access at these meetings.”
Editorial: Refinery capacity required - Toledo Blade --The REFINER Act is a fine and timely idea from U.S. Rep. Bob Latta (R., Bowling Green) to get a clear picture on what needs to be done to increase energy refining capacity in the United States. But Mr. Latta would be well advised to make changes lest the proposal fails again as it did in the last session of Congress. The Researching Efficient Federal Improvements for Necessary Energy Refining Act introduced by Mr. Latta requires recommendations on how to increase refining capacity that has declined by nearly 2 million barrels a day since the pandemic. The weakness in Mr. Latta’s proposed legislation is the slanted view of the authors he intends to have produce the study. Mr. Latta’s REFINER Act requires the National Petroleum Council to assess the current state of refineries and their suppliers and provide projections on the potential for expanding current capacity. The report must detail risks faced by the refineries with special attention paid to actions by the state or federal governments that have caused or contributed to the decline in refining capacity. It seeks recommendations on how federal agencies and Congress can increase refining capacity through policies or programs. While there is little opposition to a study on refining capacity, Democrats are dubious that an industry advocacy body can produce an objective report. They make a good point. Moreover, opponents say restricting the scope of the capacity study to state and federal regulatory issues leaves the repeal of a crude oil export ban, which sent significant quantities of U.S. oil outside the country, unaddressed. Since the oil export ban was lifted in 2015, 10 U.S. refineries have shut down. Toledo’s greatest economic development strength centers on reliable energy from the natural gas pipelines that snake through northwest Ohio. The ability of plants that are large electrical users — such as data centers — to generate power off the electric grid is a rare and precious advantage for Toledo that illustrates the crucial need for oil and gas even for the high-tech electrified economy of the future. Republican President Trump came to office with a “drill baby drill” energy mantra that is widely assumed to be focused on driving down gas prices rather than driving up oil prices by selling U.S. production to the world. This is a very important regional economic issue. Three of the four major refineries in Ohio are in northwest Ohio — Cenovus Energy in Oregon and Lima and PBF Energy also in Oregon. These northwest Ohio facilities are fortunate to have the House energy subcommittee chairman well positioned to make their issues the basis to begin national policy debate. There is no interest served by the refineries of northwest Ohio and the rest of the nation running well below their capabilities. The U.S. economy needs every drop of energy it can produce. The REFINER Act can help make it happen if revised to produce an objective and trustworthy study.
Williams Leans into Power Supply Growth with Ohio Gas-Fired Project - Williams Cos. (WMB), which capitalized on booming power demand in the first quarter, signaled on May 6 that it intends to continue its strategy as the energy from its pilot Socrates project in Ohio has been fully contracted. Socrates is a two-site, gas-fired power generating project near Columbus, Ohio, near several WMB natural gas pipeline networks. The complex will produce electricity for behind-the-meter power for customers, most likely tech companies. “We have fully contracted this project that will deliver speed to market solutions for the growing data center demand in Ohio,” Williams Cos. CEO Alan Armstrong said during the company’s earnings call on May 6. The project’s customers have not been named. The north site of Socrates is less than a mile away from a campus where Intel is developing a $28 billion chip-manufacturing facility. East Daley Analytics noted in March that the area is set to add about 2.2 gigawatts in new demand. Data center developers AWS, Google and Vantage have planned projects in the region. “If WMB sources the gas from its own G&P footprint, it can optimize the full value chain by gathering, transporting and converting gas to electricity, earning a rate at each stage,” EDA Analyst Zach Krause said in the report. “This strategy would increase in-basin consumption and would allow Northeast gas production to grow relative to our current expectations.” Williams will invest about $1.6 billion in Socrates. The contracts are backed by a 10-year fixed-price supply agreement with an option for a five-year extension. The project will produce a total of 400 megawatts of power. Construction is set to begin at both sites over the next four months, with electricity available by third-quarter 2026. Armstrong said the project should produce income at 5X EBITDA. During the call, executives said the risk involved in building Socrates is low, thanks to the credit rating of the tech customers. “This is some of the best credit out there from a customer opportunity perspective,” said John Porter, Williams’ CFO. “The customer has been with us in lockstep, making sure that we can go out and invest in these projects in a bit of a new arena, albeit playing to our core strengths and capabilities, and things we’ve done before.” Armstrong said Williams will continue to use the same model setup as with Socrates and has two similar projects that have progressed far enough to start ordering equipment.
TC Energy Pipeline Project Aims at Growing Midwest Data Center Demand - TC Energy has sanctioned an expansion of the massive ANR natural gas pipeline system, driving supplies into a Midwest region experiencing rapid development of AI data centers. “We have been working towards a meaningful announcement relating to data centers for some time, and today, we have sanctioned our Northwoods project,” said François Poirier, TC Energy CEO, during the company’s earnings call on May 1. The $900 million project will add about 400 MMcf/d of natural gas capacity to the ANR system. The new capacity is 100% contracted for 20 years and is expected to go into service in 2029. The ANR system is one of the largest interstate natural gas pipeline systems in the U.S. and already has a peak capacity of more than 10 Bcf/d. The network has access to several production basins in North America and transports natural gas from Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana to Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. The system also provides access to TC Energy’s storage operations in Michigan. Ohio has become a hot spot for data center development. On May 6, Williams Cos. announced it had fully contracted all power capacity of its Socrates project, a behind-the-meter, gas-fired generating system located near Columbus, Ohio. Poirier said that TC Energy will use the Northwoods expansion as a model for future projects. “When we think about our strategy, particularly in the U.S., we are focused on serving the data center load through our existing utility systems and leveraging our footprints to do that,” he said. “So, brownfield in corridor, permittable, constructible projects are where we’re focused.” The expansion will consist primarily of looping the existing network and increasing compression, the company said.
Shale Coalition leader knows the drill, advocates for it - Concerns about having enough energy to sustain efficiency of this region’s electric grid seem to be as abundant as the natural gas resources available in the Marcellus Shale Basin, below the Earth’s surface throughout most of Pennsylvania. Increasing energy demands, however, along with forced retirements of fossil-fuel-fired energy plants, the swift rise of data centers and shortages of infrastructure have conspired to stoke fears that parts of the U.S. northeast may become energy deficient and experience power outages. Jim Welty assures that natural gas will do its utmost to allay those fears. “We are situated atop one of the top gas deposits in the world,” he said in a recent interview, referring to Pennsylvania in general and its southwestern corner in particular. “Natural gas is the No. 1 priority of the coalition. It’s about the efficient and viable ways to use gas, whether it’s power generation for the grid, power generation for data centers or advanced manufacturing. All are in the wheelhouse of natural gas.” Welty is president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, a leading trade association for the oil and gas industry in Pennsylvania. Based in Robinson Township, MSC has about 150 members across the commonwealth. Welty, who has been with the organization for 12 years, succeeded Dave Callahan as coalition leader in January. The coalition, according to its website, “works with exploration and production, midstream and supply-chain partners across the country … from the Marcellus and Utica Shale plays.” “We represent members responsible for 95% of gas produced in Pennsylvania.” Welty said. “All of our members have a footprint in Pennsylvania.” Among states, Pennsylvania is the No. 2 producer of natural gas – behind Texas. Washington and Greene counties are largely responsible for that bounty, collectively producing 30% of the total. Our nation, likewise, is a natural gas force. In a recent weekly newsletter, Washington & Jefferson College’s Center for Energy Policy and Management cited a U.S. Energy Information Administration report saying the U.S. remained the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world last year, shipping a record 11.9 billion cubic feet per day. Welty touted his industry before a large audience in February, when he spoke at the annual Washington County: State of the Economy event. “Natural gas,” he said, “is the most efficient, clean, safe energy source across the board.” Yet energy officials and consumers are wary of what may occur with the PJM grid, which serves much of the northeastern U.S. It faces the aforementioned challenges, which could disrupt power availability. PJM Interconnection is a transmission organization that manages the wholesale electricity market and transmission grid for 13 states east of the Mississippi River. They include all of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, plus the District of Columbia. Stephen Bennett, a PJM official, spoke during a recent W&J webinar and stressed during his presentation that “safe and reliable operation of our power grid is our focus every day.” Stressed is an operative word here. PJM serves a large consumer base: 60 million people, many of whom are stressed about their grid. “The key is power,” Welty said. “There is a 100 megawatt gap between what is demand and what is needed. That gap has to be filled with some generation, and we feel natural gas is best.” The growing prominence of artificial intelligence is now accompanied by plans to develop large data centers, a number of them in Pennsylvania. Operation of the centers may require large amounts of electrical power, which could lead to higher bills and large use of water. Welty said in a statement: “We’ve been saying for a very long time that opportunities for natural gas extend far beyond production. Significant benefits are also tied to the use of gas locally, which is what we’re seeing with data center growth. “The advent of AI has created a prime opportunity for Pennsylvania to lead the AI revolution by using the natural gas under our feet to provide the significant baseload power that AI demands.” The oil and gas industry encounters challenges as well. “We have a need for more infrastructure,” Welty said. “We need more ways to get our product to market. “We need pipelines” – the construction of which, on occasion, encounters equipment, installation or permitting issues. “Another challenge is the policy side,” he said. “Policies discussed in Pennsylvania can have a chilling effect on investment.” They include setback requirements. Welty did credit the Trump administration “for helping to streamline challenges. Their focus on American energy is very helpful to what we want to accomplish in the basin – to meet the energy needs of our country.” And despite being a staunch advocate of natural gas, Welty said the coalition supports an “all-of-the-above” portfolio of energy resources. He is bullish on the basin, though. “There are significant opportunities to use our resources for our region.”
Coterra Confirms Constitution Pipe Reactivation Talks Underway - Marcellus Shale gas producer Coterra Energy confirmed they are part of talks currently underway to resume plans to build the Constitution pipeline that would alleviate takeaway constraints north of Pennsylvania. The 124-mile line was to originate from Coterra property in Susquehanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania, terminating in Schoharie County, New York, where it was to connect with existing gas infrastructure, sending gas deeper into New England.“We're watching and participating in that conversation seriously,” Tom Jorden, Coterra chairman, CEO and president, told investors in a May 6 call. The 650 MMcf/d would have supplied gas-short New England, which imports LNG, including from Russia at times.The project’s lead developer, midstream operator Williams Cos., was joined in the project by Coterra (then Cabot Oil & Gas) and utilities Duke Energy and AltaGas.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved it in 2014 but New York authorities blocked it, using water and other laws, resulting in Williams canceling it Feb. 24, 2020, after lengthy court battles.Jorden said in the call, “We think that issue will resolve itself here in the next few months.”The Appalachian Basin is constrained to roughly 36 Bcf/d of output as new pipe out of the Marcellus and Utica shale gas fields have met other regulatory and court impasses. An act of Congress was needed to get the Mountain Valley Pipeline through a few-mile finish line to get Appalachian gas to the southeastern U.S.Estimates are the basin could produce 60 Bcf/d if the midstream bottleneck was resolved.Jorden said, “We're looking at [Constitution] as a potential future opportunity for growth in the Marcellus.” President Trump put the pipeline back into national news in February, calling for its completion.Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told energy conference attendees in Houston, “If we just had another 124 miles of pipeline in New York, then we would have all of New England with lower electrical prices and they could be burning clean U.S. natural gas from ourselves.”He added, “We will step in to make sure we can deliver that.” Williams President and CEO Alan Armstrong said at the conference, “We absolutely intend to try to get Constitution built, but obviously we’re going to be working to try to gain the states’ support and the local support in those areas as well.”In announcing the project’s cancelation in 2020, Williams reported, “While Constitution did receive positive outcomes in recent court proceedings and permit applications, the underlying risk-adjusted return for this greenfield pipeline project has diminished in such a way that further development is no longer supported.”It added that, “as communities and leaders recognize the important role natural gas has played in U.S. emissions reductions—and recognize the ability to further lower emissions through use of natural gas in the future—we stand ready to deliver.”
Energy Transfer Teases 3 Additional Supply Agreements for Lake Charles LNG as it Targets FID This Year -Energy Transfer LP (ET) management said international demand for U.S. natural gas is continuing to push its Lake Charles LNG project closer to the finish line as the midstreamer works to finalize three more offtake agreements in the coming days. After years of development, Dallas-based ET kickstarted a new wave of momentum late last year for the long-proposed terminal with additional supply contracts and negotiations for its existing agreements. Energy Transfer LNG President Tom Mason said that momentum has continued to build since the beginning of the year, driving more customers to sign on to the 16.45 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity project.
Cheniere Close to Sanctioning Another LNG Expansion Project in South Texas, CEO Says - Cheniere Energy Inc. management said Thursday it expects to have four liquefaction trains online at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 LNG project in South Texas by the end of this year, while management is increasingly confident the company may soon sanction another expansion at the facility. NGI's forward natural gas price curve at Tennessee Line 500. CEO Jack Fusco said during a call to discuss first quarter earnings that three trains at the Stage 3 project should be completed and in service by the end of the year. With the project schedule on track, Fusco also said the fourth train is likely to start commissioning by then too. The Stage 3 project would add seven trains at Corpus Christi. Cheniere is progressing toward a final investment decision on an eighth and ninth train that Fusco said he expects to “occur in the coming months.”
U.S. LNG Buyers For Now Looking Past Trade War as Project Momentum Continues - U.S. LNG projects have continued to gain momentum this year despite a trade war that has cast uncertainty over the global economy. (natural gas supply and demand projections by Shell plc) Binding sales and purchase agreements (SPA) have been signed by multiple U.S. export projects to sell nearly 10 million tons/year (Mt/y) of the super-chilled fuel. Other deals have been inked or are advancing for equity stakes in export plants planned for the Gulf Coast. Overseas buyers have also been signing preliminary agreements to purchase even more U.S. LNG, continuing strong momentum that began in 2022 when Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe and upended global energy flows.
Commonwealth Increases Asian LNG Offtake as FID Nears - Commonwealth LNG LLC has signed an offtake agreement with an Asian LNG buyer as it works to commercialize the project by the summer. The Houston-based company disclosed Monday a 20-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with an unnamed Asian energy firm for 1 million tons/year of export capacity (Mt/y). “This offtake agreement marks another important milestone for Commonwealth as we work toward a final investment later this year and first offtake planned for 2029,” Commonwealth Chairman Ben Dell, managing partner of Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. LLC, said.
Golden Pass LNG Likely Ramping Before Year’s End, Says ExxonMobil’s Woods - ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass LNG project on the Texas coast, beset by issues mostly out of its control, could begin commercial operations before the end of the year, slightly earlier than envisioned a few months ago. The 15.6 million ton/year facility has faced numerous delays since being repurposed in 2012 as an export terminal. Along with market downturns, Covid-19 and the withdrawal of the lead contractor following a bankruptcy, CEO Darren Woods last summer said shipments likely would begin by the end of this year. Woods reiterated his belief during a conference call Friday to discuss first quarter performance.
Gulf Coast Feed Gas Demand Dips On Freeport LNG Power Outage, Planned Maintenance — The Offtake A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 14.33 million Dth: U.S. feed gas demand ticked back up Wednesday after an outage at Freeport LNG combined with flow reductions from planned maintenance at other Gulf Coast facilities. Freeport LNG told Texas environmental regulators the facility's three trains were offline for several hours Tuesday after a power feed interruption in the mid-morning. Gulf Coast nominations rose to 14.33 million dekatherms (Dth) Wednesday from 12.75 million Dth the day before.
- 2 Mt: Global LNG markets will grow tighter through the beginning of June as volumes taken off the market by facility maintenance rises to a seven-month high. LNG terminal maintenance is set to impact almost 2 million tons (Mt) of export capacity in May, including 0.18 Mt in the United States. Some facilities like Hammerfest LNG in Norway have extended maintenance schedules, placing 2.5 Mt offline through the first week of June.
- 200 Bcm: The European Union (EU) could fully displace Russian natural gas and LNG by 2027 under a plan outlined by the European Commission (EC) Monday. The EC’s plan calls for replacing 100 Bcm of natural gas supply by 2030 with other sources, but doesn’t mandate Russian volumes be replaced with other sources. EU gas demand would decrease by 40-50 Bcm by 2027 under the energy strategy, which also includes investment in renewable energy and alternative liquid fuels.
- 7%: Cracks are already appearing in the EU’s plans to ban Russian energy, however. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Rober Fico told the media Wednesday that his country planned to oppose plans that would call for an outright ban of Russian fossil fuels. Aurora Energy Research estimated that if the EU imported Russian natural gas at pre-war levels, Title Transfer Facility prices could drop 7% over the next three decades. Russian gas could also reduce demand for U.S. LNG, researchers noted.
- 10,300 workers: Golden Pass LNG has asked FERC to increase its daily workforce from 9,200 people on site to 10,300. Representatives for Golden Pass told Commission staff that the increase would be “necessary to timely and safely complete construction, commissioning, and start-up activities in Trains 1, 2, and 3” until the project is fully operational. The workforce request follows a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission order allowing Golden Pass to commission key liquefaction and gas treatment equipment at the Texas facility.
US natgas prices slide 2% on lower demand forecasts, LNG flows — U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Monday on forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants. The price decline came despite a drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for more demand this week. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.0 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $3.550 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since April 9. Looking forward, the premium of futures for July over June rose to a record 32 cents per mmBtu. Gas stockpiles had been below normal from mid-January through late April after utilities pulled a monthly record 1.013 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. Since gas output hit a daily record high of 17.4 bcfd on April 18, production was on track to drop by around 3.9 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 103.5 bcfd on Monday. That, however, was a smaller daily decline than LSEG forecast on Friday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 20. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 96.9 bcfd this week to 95.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.4 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a preliminary six-week low of 14.8 bcfd on Monday due mostly to a drop in flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana to 1.0 bcfd on Monday, down from 1.4 bcfd on Sunday and an average of 1.8 bcfd over the prior seven days. Officials at Cameron LNG were not immediately available for comment on the feedgas reduction. The company, however, has told customers it will conduct maintenance on a pipeline that supplies gas to the plant, which will reduce flows on the pipe this week. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.
US natgas prices slide 3% on lower flows to LNG export plans and forecasts for less demand — U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and less gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. A couple of energy traders said gas prices also fell due to unconfirmed rumors that Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas might have shut. Officials at Freeport said they had no comment. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.7 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.463 per million British thermal units. The premium of futures for July over June (NGM25-N25) rose to a record 35 cents per mmBtu. Analysts said mild weather expected to last through at least late May should keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. Since gas output hit a daily record high of 17.4 bcfd on April 18, production was on track to drop by around 4.8 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 102.6 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 21. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 96.3 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a preliminary seven-week low of 14.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline in flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in operation in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant, with some units in service and others under construction, in Texas.
US natural gas prices climb 5% on return of Freeport LNG, lower output — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 5% on Wednesday on a drop in output and forecasts for demand to rise more than previously expected this week, especially with the return to service of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas from an outage a day earlier. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.8 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.621 per million British thermal units. Analysts said mild weather expected to last through late May should keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to 103.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 96.7 bcfd this week to 94.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has fallen to 14.8 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, the shutdown of Freeport, which was due to a power interruption, and reductions at other plants caused LNG feedgas to drop to a 14-week low of 12.4 bcfd on Tuesday. LSEG said the amount of gas flowing to Freeport's 2.1-bcfd plant was on track to reach 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 0.3 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 1.9 bcfd over the prior seven days. The other LNG feedgas reductions were at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas. Gas flows to Cameron have held around 1.2 bcfd since Monday, down from an average of 1.8 bcfd over the prior seven days, while flows to Corpus have held around 1.5 bcfd since Tuesday, down from an average of 2.2 bcfd over the prior seven days. Officials at Cameron LNG have not commented on the feedgas reduction, while officials at Cheniere said they had no comment. Both companies, however, have told customers in separate postings that they were conducting maintenance on pipelines and other equipment that supplies gas to their plants. Energy traders noted that other than the Freeport shutdown, most of the feedgas reductions and pipeline work were part of normal spring and autumn maintenance when demand for gas for heating and cooling is low.
US natgas prices ease on mild weather, big storage build — U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday after mild weather kept heating and cooling demand low last week, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. That small price decline came despite a drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due in part to a rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.9 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $3.592 per million British thermal units. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 104 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 2. That was in line with the 101-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 81 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 79 bcf for this time of year. Gas stockpiles are currently around 1% above the five-year normal. Inventories had been below normal from mid-January through late April after utilities pulled a monthly record of 1.013 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter. Some analysts said mild weather and record output this spring could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May. The current all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf was set in May 2015. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. Since gas output hit a daily record high of 107.4 bcfd on April 18, production was on track to drop about 4.8 bcfd to a near 10-week preliminary low of 102.6 bcfd on Thursday. Looking ahead, analysts said the roughly 16% drop in U.S. crude futures so far in 2025 would likely prompt drillers to cut back on oil production. Any decline in oil production would ultimately reduce the amount of gas pulled out of the ground that is associated with that oil production. About 37% of U.S. gas production comes from associated gas, according to federal energy data. Over time, analysts said that reduction in gas output should increase gas prices.
House Committee advances sweeping energy expansion to unleash U.S. oil and gas production -In a decisive move to bolster domestic energy production, the House Natural Resources Committee is advancing legislation to dramatically expand oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters. The proposed changes, set to be included in a budget reconciliation bill, would mandate dozens of new lease sales in the Gulf of America, Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the National Petroleum Reserve, while also streamlining permitting for oil shale development in Western states. With Republicans controlling the Senate, the bill is poised to bypass Democratic opposition, marking a significant victory for the Trump administration’s energy agenda.The legislation, unveiled ahead of a key committee hearing on May 6, aims to reverse years of restrictive policies under the Biden administration, which industry groups argue stifled investment and contributed to higher energy prices. Proponents say the bill will enhance U.S. energy security, lower fuel costs and generate billions in federal revenue — while critics warn it prioritizes corporate interests over environmental concerns.At the heart of the proposal is a requirement for 30 offshore lease sales in the Gulf of America over the next 15 years, along with six in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and four in ANWR — a region long contested for its vast untapped oil reserves. The bill also mandates biennial lease sales in the National Petroleum Reserve and reduces royalty rates for drillers to 12.5%, a move intended to incentivize development. “These provisions will increase domestic energy production, allowing for affordable and reliable energy for all Americans,” said the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) in a letter to House leadership. The group praised the reinstatement of quarterly onshore lease sales, calling it a “long-overdue step” after years of bureaucratic delays. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in particular, has been a flashpoint in energy debates for decades. Estimates suggest ANWR holds up to 10.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil, making it one of the most accessible untapped reserves in the U.S. Past efforts to open the region to drilling have faced fierce opposition from environmentalists, but proponents argue technological advancements minimize ecological risks. The committee estimates the bill will generate $15 billion in federal revenue, primarily from expanded leasing. Additionally, it includes provisions to share offshore royalties with coastal states — a model already used in Alaska, where residents receive annual dividends from oil revenues. “The House Committee on Natural Resources is answering President Trump’s call to unleash American energy dominance through commonsense, science-based and economically sound provisions,” read a committee memo obtained by Reuters.However, environmental advocates warn the bill prioritizes short-term gains over long-term sustainability. “This would upend the use of our public lands as we know it, putting President Trump’s oil and mining industry donors in the driver’s seat,” said Jenny Rowland-Shea of the Center for American Progress. Legal challenges are expected, particularly over ANWR drilling, where past lawsuits have delayed development. If passed, the legislation could mark a turning point in U.S. energy strategy, shifting from regulatory constraints to aggressive expansion. The reconciliation process ensures it will avoid a Democratic filibuster, increasing its chances of becoming law.
Shallow M5.4 earthquake, series of aftershocks hit Texas–New Mexico border region - A shallow earthquake registered by the USGS as M5.4 struck Culberson County, Texas, near the New Mexico border, at 01:47 UTC on May 4, 2025 (20:47 LT on May 3). The agency reports a depth of 7.5 km (4.6 miles). The earthquake occurred in an area of intense oil and gas activity within the Permian Basin. Location of M5.4 earthquake near Texas - New Mexico border at 01:47 UTC on May 4, 2025. Credit: TW/SAM, Google The quake was initially measured at M5.3 before being upgraded to M5.4, making it one of the strongest earthquakes recorded in this region in recent decades. The epicenter was located 59 km (37 miles) south of Whites City (population 7) and 89 km (55 miles) south-southwest of Carlsbad (population 28 957), New Mexico. 915 000 people are estimated to have felt light shaking, and 1 982 000 weak. As of now, there are no reports of significant damage or injuries resulting from the earthquake. The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are resistant to earthquake shaking, though vulnerable structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and reinforced masonry construction. The USGS identified this quake as the potential mainshock of an earthquake sequence, with 66 events with magnitudes up to 3.2 detected over the next 4 hours. According to their forecast, there is a 3% chance of one or more aftershocks larger than magnitude 5, which could be damaging, within the next week. Smaller aftershocks are likely during this period, with up to 19 expected at magnitude 3 or greater. These may be felt in nearby areas. While the overall number of aftershocks is expected to decrease over time, a significant aftershock could temporarily increase seismic activity.
3 questions answered about Interior’s High Arctic plans - The Trump administration has jump-started plans for offshore oil and gas lease sales, but it’s also touting a new area to explore: the High Arctic. The United States has been laying the groundwork for expanding its territory off the coast of Alaska for years, and under President Donald Trump the largely unknown area may be opened to offshore drilling. The Interior Department didn’t provide many details about plans for the High Arctic in a news release last month. The area is believed to be rich in critical minerals and a potential supply of oil and gas. The offshore energy industry has already backed recent steps taken by the administration, urging officials to open the door to development in the Arctic. “Our long-term energy, national, and economic security will depend upon the U.S. taking action today through enabling policies so that we can attract investment and compete globally,” Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, said in an emailed statement. Still, the Trump administration’s plan to wade into international maritime law is causing consternation in China. Concerns also are coming from some U.S. environmentalists, who argue that sensitive Arctic ecosystems could suffer from expanded drilling or untested deep-sea mining. “While opening any more waters to offshore oil and gas drilling is reckless, opening the High Arctic is particularly so,” Kristen Monsell, oceans program legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, an arm of the Interior Department that manages offshore energy in federal waters, released a map of the agency’s existing and new planning areas last month.The High Arctic region sits above two other areas — the Chukchi and Beaufort seas — that border Alaska’s North Slope. The new area encompasses a region of the Arctic Ocean that the U.S. recently laid claim to. Under international law, countries are generally understood to have sovereignty over waters that extend up to 200 nautical miles from their coastline, according to the State Department. Beyond that is a more distant region of the seas known as the “extended continental shelf,” which countries can also exert control over. International maritime law lays out processes by which nations can claim offshore waters. As a newly defined region of U.S. territory, the High Arctic area has borders that are partially contested. For example, according to a State Department website, the United States’ extended continental shelf “partially overlaps” with Canada’s. The area of overlap is more than 94,000 square miles, Charlotte MacLeod, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, said in a statement. Prior research from USGS has shown potential oil and gas reserves around the Arctic Ocean. The agency has also found “high concentrations of critical and strategic seafloor minerals.” In the short term, the oil industry might be unlikely to spend money on exploration in the region. “It’s quite a ways from shore,” said Larry Persily, a former U.S. coordinator for an Alaska natural gas pipeline project. “I’d be surprised if anybody bid on it. … It just doesn’t seem there’s an appetite for that kind of huge risk when there’s less risky prospects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin.” But Mark Myers, a member of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, told E&E News that the reserves of critical minerals are “highly significant and certainly of interest.” Amy Gartman, a research oceanographer at USGS, said in an interview that the High Arctic area appears to have unusually high concentrations of scandium, a rare earth element used in alloys. But she stressed that there is “no indication” to date that the minerals will be extractable, or commercially viable for industry, in this area of the Arctic. Exerting control over the region could therefore have national security implications, as ocean mining is generally regulated by the International Seabed Authority (ISA). “An established [extended continental shelf] would prohibit foreign countries from pursuing exploration or exploitation contracts through the ISA for areas located within another country’s ECS,” according to a 2024 report from the Congressional Research Service. “In addition, an extension of the outer limits of the U.S. ECS to include mineral-rich areas would be a potential strategy to access mineral resources under sole U.S. authority, rather than under the authority of the ISA.”
Arc Resources Boosts Natural Gas Production as LNG Canada Nears Start Up -Prominent Canadian producer Arc Resources Ltd. said it grew natural gas output during the first quarter and capitalized on deliveries of the fuel to the United States to realize improved pricing and stronger profitability.NGI's NOVA/AECO C natural gas spot price. Calgary-based Arc said its first quarter oil and natural gas output averaged 372,265 boe/d, with the output 63% gas weighted. The total was up 6% from a year earlier. The company maintained its guidance for ongoing growth this year. Arc plans to invest between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion to generate annual average production of between 380,000 boe/d and 395,000 boe/d, with natural gas accounting for more than 60% of that supply.
LNG Canada (Nearly) Good to Go, With Tighter Natural Gas Market Continuing, Says Shell CEO- LNG Canada, the first natural gas export project in the country, remains on track to begin commercial operations by mid-year, Shell plc executives said Friday. Graph showing Shell's major global projects. CEO Wael Sawan and CFO Sinead Gorman discussed first quarter performance and laid out the near- and medium-term plans for the London-based supermajor. There was a lot of discussion around the cause célèbre, the tariff war instigated by President Trump. While the macro outlook remains hazy, there is “limited impact” on operations today, as Shell’s diversified portfolio will help to mitigate the effects, Sawan said.
Argentina LNG Ambitions Becoming Reality with FID on Offshore Export Vessel - Argentina has talked about sending out LNG for years, but stars have finally aligned with exports expected in 2027. Bar chart showing global LNG demand by country. Late last week, the Southern Energy SA consortium in Argentina said it had reached a final investment decision (FID) to proceed with a floating LNG (FLNG) facility off the coast of Rio Negro province in the Gulf of San Matias. Golar LNG Ltd. will charter the FLNG Hilli Episeyo vessel to Southern Energy for a 20-year period. In addition, the entities have signed an agreement for a 20-year charter for the MKII FLNG.
European Industrial Giants Weigh U.S. Natural Gas Access Against Trade War Uncertainty - Some of Europe’s largest industrial end-users are accelerating their search for more competitive natural gas in markets such as North America, but growing uncertainty about the U.S.-China trade war is complicating economic outlooks. (a breakdown of the European Union's LNG imports by origin country) After another quarter of high energy prices cutting into its margins, Dow Inc. disclosed it was expanding its plans to shut down or idle production units in Europe. Dow’s expanded review could lead to idling or closing two units in Germany and the shutdown of a facility in the UK. COO Karen Carter said during a 1Q2025 call with analysts that Dow had previously guided that natural gas and power prices would remain a risk through the beginning of the year, but “expected these prices to moderate” during 1Q2025. Instead, markets remained volatile and continued to compress the company’s margins, especially in its packaging and speciality plastics segment.
EU to propose blanket ban on Russian gas - The European Union’s executive will soon unveil legislation to end all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. The goal is at the core of a plan that the European Commission presented Tuesday. The Commission said it will release legislation next month to ban new gas contracts with Russia — a prohibition that would kick in at the end of 2025 for short-term market purchases, and at the end of 2027 for long-term contracts.The plan will similarly target Russian oil, but with less-binding measures. And it will go after Russian nuclear supplies, proposing upcoming measures and laws to shun Russian nuclear fuel and uranium imports.“Today the European Union sends a very clear message to Russia — no more,” EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen said as he unveiled the plan. “No more will we allow our member states to be blackmailed, no more will we indirectly help fill up the war chest in the Kremlin.”
Asian Buyers Step Back Into Spot Market as Global Natural Gas Prices Continue Falling — Global natural gas prices continued to slide on Monday, following oil lower as energy demand remains weak amid the trade war. Graph and two charts showing LNG parity prices for Asia markets. Over the weekend, OPEC-plus announced another increase in oil production for the second consecutive month. The move pushed Brent crude below $60/bbl during Monday trading, making natural gas alternatives increasingly attractive. “The oil market has been dealing with significant demand uncertainty amid tariff risks,” ING Groep NV strategist Warren Patterson wrote in a note to clients. “This change in OPEC-plus policy adds to uncertainty on the supply side.”
TotalEnergies Expecting Weak Oil Demand Amid Trade War to Weigh on LNG Prices - TotalEnergies SE is aiming to restart construction at its long-delayed Mozambique LNG project in Africa now that financing for the project has been revived. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. Management said during a recent call to discuss first quarter earnings that it plans to resume work on the 12.9 million tons/year (Mt/y) project by the middle of the year. The company declared a force majeure and stopped work on the project in 2021 amid rising violence and security threats posed by insurgents in Cabo Delgado province. TotalEnergies and its partners had previously aimed to resume work last year, but it’s been waiting for export credit agencies to reauthorize funding that lapsed after the $20 billion project ground to a halt. Mozambique LNG received a boost in April after the U.S. Export Import Bank reauthorized a $4.7 billion loan for the facility.
Oil Prices Crash as OPEC+ Boosts Supply – Brent Falls Below $60 on Oversupply Fears – Global oil prices took a steep hit in early Asian trading on Monday, falling to their lowest levels in nearly a month, as OPEC+ signaled a more aggressive approach to ramping up oil production. The move has stirred anxiety across global energy markets, with investors increasingly wary of a supply glut when demand growth remains shaky due to macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions. The international oil benchmark of Brent crude dropped by $2.21 or 3.61%, bringing the price down to $59.08 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude followed suit, falling by $2.29 or 3.93% to settle at $56.00 per barrel. Both benchmarks reached their lowest points since April 9, reacting swiftly to the latest decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to accelerate production increases. For the second month in a row, OPEC+ has opted to boost output, announcing an additional hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for June. This means the bloc will have added 960,000 bpd over three months—April, May, and June—undoing 44% of the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts implemented since 2022. Market watchers see this rapid reversal of production restraints as a clear sign that OPEC+—and Saudi Arabia in particular—is pressuring member countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan to adhere more strictly to their output quotas. Saudi Arabia, known for its role as the de facto leader of the group, has reportedly been pushing for a faster rollback of cuts in response to weak compliance by some members. Analysts say this move could flood the market with excess crude, especially if compliance issues persist and output increases continue at this pace. According to sources within OPEC+, if member nations fail to tighten compliance, the group may completely unwind its voluntary cuts by October this year. Further compounding market pessimism, the Brent crude futures spread has flipped into contango—a market structure where oil for immediate delivery is cheaper than for future delivery. For the first time since December 2023, the six-month Brent spread showed a contango of 11 cents per barrel, signaling traders expect oil supplies to outpace demand in the near term. This growing concern over surplus has already impacted price forecasts from major financial institutions. Barclays slashed its Brent price outlook by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and lowered its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel. ING similarly adjusted its expectations, now predicting Brent will average $65 in 2025, down from a prior estimate of $70. Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh noted that while OPEC+ is phasing out voluntary cuts, a slowdown in U.S. shale output may slightly offset the global supply surge. Nonetheless, Barclays has revised its supply projections upward by 290,000 bpd for 2025 and by 110,000 bpd for 2026. ING’s analysts, led by Warren Patterson, echoed similar concerns. They expect the oil market to shift deeper into surplus territory throughout 2025, especially as uncertainties tied to global trade policies and tariffs continue to impact consumption trends. With the supply side now also becoming increasingly volatile, the oil market appears to be heading into a period of heightened instability. The sharp fall in oil prices reflects deepening concerns about oversupply in the face of fragile global demand. As OPEC+ pushes forward with accelerated production hikes and compliance tensions simmer within the group, investors will be closely monitoring both supply-side behavior and macroeconomic indicators for cues on where oil markets are headed next.
OPEC+ Accelerated its Output Hikes on Saturday - The oil market gapped lower from $57.74 to $56.76 on the opening after OPEC+ decided to accelerate its output hikes on Saturday. OPEC+ agreed to further speed up its production hikes for a second consecutive month, increasing output in June by 411,000 bpd. The June increase by eight OPEC+ participants will take the total combined increase for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022. The market quickly posted a low of $55.30 and traded mostly sideways before it retraced its losses and began to backfill its opening gap. The market traded to a high of $57.70 early in the morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading pattern during the remainder of the session as the market remained pressured by concerns of more supply coming into a market amid an uncertain demand outlook. The June WTI contract settled down $1.16 at $57.13 and the July Brent contract settled down $1.06 at $60.23. Both contracts settled at the lowest level since February 2021. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.87 cents at $1.9745 and the RB market settling up 29 points at $2.0228. President Donald Trump said the declining oil price is intensifying pressure on Russia and increasing the odds for a deal to end its war in Ukraine. His comments come a week ahead of his planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 bpd, despite falling prices and expectations of weaker demand. Following an online meeting lasting just over an hour, the producer group announced the supply increase, saying the fundamentals of the oil market were healthy and inventories were low. The June increase from the eight will take the total combined hike for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd cut.UBS sees Brent crude oil price recovering to $68/barrel in the coming months despite near term pressure. It anticipates a further seasonal increase in global oil demand in the coming months amid the driving season in the U.S. and the increasing temperatures in the Middle East.Barclays cut its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing the decision by OPEC+ to expedite the phasing out of their voluntary production adjustments and accelerate output. The bank now expects Brent to average $66/barrel in 2025, down $4 from its previous forecast, and $60/barrel in 2026, a $2 reduction. The bank now anticipates OPEC+ to fully phase out the additional voluntary adjustments by October 2025, but also projects slightly slower U.S. oil output growth. Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following decisions by OPEC+ to accelerate oil output increases. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $60/barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56/barrel in 2026 down by $2 from its previous estimate. It has also cut its forecast for WTI crude by $3/barrel, now projecting it to average $56/barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $52/barrel in 2026.
Oil ends at four-year lows as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes (Reuters) - Oil fell by more than $1 a barrel on Monday to settle at over four-year lows as an OPEC+ decision to expedite its output hikes stoked fears about rising global supply at a time when the demand outlook is uncertain. Brent crude futures settled at $60.23 a barrel, down $1.06, or 1.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell$1.16, or 2%, to end at $57.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled at their lowest since February 2021. Last week, Brent shed 8.3% and WTI lost 7.5% after Saudi Arabia signaled it could cope with a prolonged lower price environment. That offset optimism on the demand side that U.S.-China tariff talks could occur, On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). The June increase by eight participants in the OPEC+ group, which includes allies like Russia, will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd. That represents a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations. "For the producers outside of the OPEC+ group, which is now nearly 60% of global oil supply, the market share gains may have reached a peak if these new barrels are fed into the market and prices move lower," The group could fully unwind its voluntary cuts by the end of October if members do not improve compliance with their production quotas, OPEC+ sources told Reuters. OPEC+ sources have said Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to speed up the unwinding of earlier output cuts to punish fellow members Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with their production quotas. "The production increase, instigated by Saudi Arabia, is as much about challenging U.S. shale supply as it is to penalize members that have benefited from higher prices while flouting their production limits," ING and Barclays have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC+ decision. Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70 previously. "Expectations of mounting global oil inventories in the coming months given the demand deterioration expected off of the Trump tariffs is tending to accentuate bearish supply-side news," Widespread recession fears and weak refined fuel import demand are also weighing on oil prices, said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa, adding that since mid-February the data analytics firm had noted an approximate 150 million-barrel build in global crude stocks in onshore tanks and on tankers at sea. Oil below $50 a barrel could hurt final investment decisions for offshore projects, Girish Saligram, CEO of oilfield services company Weatherford International, said at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. "If we see prices sustain below $50 a barrel, I think it could create a little bit of a lull for some of the new final investment decisions," Saligram said.
Crude Futures Rebound on Bargain Buying, But Bearish Outlook Lingers Oil prices rebounded sharply on Tuesday, driven by technical buying and bargain hunting after hitting multi-year lows in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged nearly 3%, recovering from a low of $55.30—its weakest since April 9—after a gap lower open. Despite bearish fundamentals, price action appears to have established a short-term value zone between $55.30 and $54.48.At 10:03 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $58.75, up $1.62 or +2.84%. Tuesday’s gains were largely technical, with market participants reacting to perceived oversold levels. Analysts noted that the drop below $60 a barrel triggered fresh buying interest, with $60 acting as a key psychological pivot. Brent crude also snapped a six-day losing streak, supported by similar sentiment. However, the market still faces resistance at $59.68 and $60.09. A sustained move above these levels could reinvigorate bullish momentum.Overhang from OPEC+ remains a major concern. The group’s decision to increase output for a second straight month has undermined bullish sentiment. While Saudi Arabia did modestly cut its official selling prices, analysts argue it’s not an aggressive bid for market share but rather a cautious recalibration. Still, expectations that supply will exceed demand have pushed oil over 20% lower since April.The return of Chinese buyers following a five-day holiday added marginal support, as the world’s top importer likely took advantage of discounted prices. Additionally, U.S. economic data surprised to the upside, with the ISM services PMI rising to 51.6, indicating modest expansion in the largest oil-consuming economy. But ongoing trade risks and broader demand uncertainties remain key. Major institutions have revised their oil prices projections downward. Barclays cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel for 2025 and lowered its 2026 estimate to $62, citing weakened fundamentals and trade tensions. Goldman Sachs also trimmed its outlook, factoring in an expected 400,000 bpd supply boost from OPEC+ in July. These revisions underscore growing concerns that any short-term rally may be unsustainable.While Tuesday’s rebound provided technical relief, broader fundamentals remain skewed to the downside. Oversupply fears, uncertain demand, and downgraded price forecasts all suggest continued bearish pressure. WTI must decisively clear resistance near $60 to alter sentiment. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling into strength.
Oil Jumps as Traders Buy the Dip -Oil prices staged a robust comeback on Tuesday, clawing back ground lost after OPEC’s surprise weekend announcement to boost production quotas by more than expected.WTI surged more than 4% on the day, trading above $59, while Brent gained 3.7%, reaching well above $62. The bounce comes after a bruising April that saw prices crater under the weight of U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ confusion. OPEC’s weekend move to raise quotas—reportedly by triple what most expected—initially sent prices tumbling. But the fine print matters. Chronic overproducers like Iraq and Nigeria are already pumping over quota, so the new targets mostly legalize the status quo. Actual production isn’t expected to rise much—if at all. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will stop bombing Yemen’s Houthi rebels, saying the group indicated it would end attacks on ships in the Red Sea. “They just don’t want to fight,” Trump said, claiming the Iran-backed rebels had “capitulated” — though the Houthis have made no public statement to that effect. Trump declined to specify how the message was received, only citing “a very good source.” Despite uncertainty around the rebels’ actual intentions, Trump called the development “very positive” and said he would take the Houthis at their word. Oil prices briefly rose on his remarks. The U.S. had resumed airstrikes in mid-March in response to Houthi attacks on commercial and military vessels, which have disrupted global trade since 2023. Tensions flared further this week after a Houthi missile landed near Tel Aviv, prompting Israeli retaliation in Yemen. The pause in hostilities comes just ahead of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. in Oman on May 11. Trump is pushing for a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions and has warned of military action if negotiations fail. As always with volatile markets, it's important not to read too much into a single-day reversal. Tuesday's rebound came after hitting four-year lows on Monday. The rally, driven by technical buying and bargain hunting, followed a selloff triggered by OPEC+’s decision to triple its production increase to 411,000 bpd in June. Traders capitalized on oversold conditions, with Brent’s $60 level acting as a psychological floor, prompting speculative long positions. Additionally, China’s robust post-Labour Day travel spending, up 8% year-on-year to $24.92 billion, fueled optimism for fuel demand, particularly in jet fuel and gasoline. However, this bounce reflects short-term market dynamics rather than a fundamental shift, as oversupply fears and trade war concerns linger.Analysts suggest the actual output increase may be tempered by overproduction from members like Kazakhstan, already 390,000 bpd above its quota, and compensatory cuts. Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar and potential U.S.-China trade tariffs threaten demand, with the IEA forecasting only 1.2 million bpd growth in 2025. The contango structure in futures markets and high volatility driven by short-covering underscore that this is a trader’s market, not a signal of sustained recovery. Without clearer demand signals or tighter supply, any significant rally is more likely to be bargain hunting than a reversal of the bearish trend.
Oil rises 3% on signs of more Europe and China demand, less US output (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 3% on Tuesday on signs of higher demand in Europe and China, lower production in the U.S., tensions in the Middle East and as buyers emerged the day after prices fell to a four-year low. Brent futures rose $1.92, or 3.2%, to settle at $62.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.96, or 3.4%, to close at $59.09. Both benchmarks rose out of technically oversold territory, the day after posting their lowest settlements since February 2021 on a decision by OPEC+ to boost output. "The market may be seeing some bottom fishing with a significant amount of profit taking out of short holdings, a major contributor to today’s price rebound," OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, decided over the weekend to speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month. "After evaluating the latest OPEC+ move to accelerate the easing of supply cuts, market players are focusing on developments in trade and the possibility ... that trade deals will be reached," Varga also pointed to the rise in geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East as Israel struck Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen as a retaliation for an assault on Ben Gurion airport. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, said the U.S. will stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen, saying that the group had agreed to stop interrupting important shipping lanes in the Middle East. Prices also drew support after consumers in China increased spending during the May Day celebration and as market participants returned after the five-day holiday. The U.S. dollar fell to a one-week low against a basket of currencies as investors grew impatient about trade deals. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies. In addition, lower oil prices in recent weeks have prompted some U.S. energy firms like Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy to announce that they would cut some rigs, which analysts said should over time increase prices by reducing output. The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed adding more individuals and over 100 vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet to its 17th package of sanctions against Moscow in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trump said late on Monday he would announce pharma tariffs over the next two weeks, his latest action on levies that have roiled global financial markets over the past months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration could announce trade agreements with some of the United States' largest trade partners as early as this week, but gave no details on which countries were involved. The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high in March as businesses boosted imports of goods ahead of tariffs, which dragged gross domestic product (GDP) into negative terrain in the first quarter for the first time in three years. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook. An interest rate cut could spur economic growth and thus, oil demand. But tariffs raise prices, and the Fed uses higher interest rates to combat inflation.
Crude Oil Prices Rise as US-China Trade Talks Signal De-Escalation Hopes Commodity markets are trading firmer amid news that US-China trade talks will kick off later this week.News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions. Yet while negotiations would help improve sentiment in the oil market, we’ll need to see significant progress on lowering tariffs to improve the demand outlook.In addition, the supply side looks increasingly more comfortable due to the aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+. This is particularly so toward the latter part of the year, when the oil surplus is expected to grow. Clearly, the risk to this view is that OPEC+ will reverse the policy once again. We’d have to see members who’ve consistently produced at above target levels start adhering to their targets. Kazakhstan is reportedly considering its options to meet targets. Our oil balance assumes OPEC+ continues with aggressive supply hikes through the third quarter, which is in line with increases announced for May and June. American Petroleum Institute numbers, released overnight, were fairly constructive. US crude inventories fell by 4.49m barrels over the last week, while stocks at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 854k barrels. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 1.97 million barrels. Distillate stocks grew by 2.24 million barrels.European natural gas prices displayed plenty of strength yesterday. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) rallied 5.5%, its largest daily increase since mid-March. The move was driven by the EU’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. This includes phasing out long-term gas contracts by the end of 2027.More importantly, the plan includes banning all new contracts and ending existing spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU believes these measures will cut Russian gas flows to the EU by one-third by the end of the year. Further details are expected next month.Meanwhile, reports that power flows to the Freeport LNG export terminal in the US have stopped, suggesting a production disruption at the 20bcm export plant. This could provide some further support to European gas prices in the immediate term, depending on the duration of the outage.
WTI Prices Extend Losses Despite Slide In US Crude Production - Oil pries pumped and dumped back tro unchanged ahead of this morning's official inventory and supply data after hopeful (demand) signs of US-China trade talks battled with fearful (supply) signals from OPEC*+. “There is a fear that the trade negotiations in Switzerland with China could backfire and turn into a demand destruction event,” Building market sentiment that a rate-cut is not in the cards anytime soon is also weighing on prices, he added. Oil has trended lower since late January due to escalating trade frictions and plans by OPEC+ to keep boosting idled supply, but prices have moved away from their lows in the last couple of days. DOE
- Crude -2.03mm
- Cushing -740k
- Gasoline +188k - first build since mid-Feb
- Distillates -1.10mm
While gasoline stocks built for the first time in 10 weeks, Crude and Distillates inventories drewdown last week...As Bloomberg's Alex Longley reports, total inventories of crude and petroleum products, excluding the SPR, climbed for a second week this week, but the buildup was fairly small. The drop in crude and distillates was countered by another increase in natural gas liquids. That said, the pace of NGL builds slowed after bumper increases in previous weeks. Despite the 'drill, baby, drill' narrative, US crude production slipped significantly over the past couple of weeks...
Oversupply Fears Rise Amid Growing Demand Concerns from Tariffs - The oil market erased some of its gains on Wednesday following Tuesday’s technical rebound as the market remained concerned about a possible oversupply at a time when U.S. tariffs have increased concerns about demand. In overnight trading, the oil market breached its previous high of $59.84 and retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $64.87 to a low of $55.30 as it rallied to a high of $60.26. The market was supported by the news that the U.S. and China are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Saturday, which could be the first step towards resolving a trade war that is disrupting the global economy. However, the crude market pared its gains and traded to a low of $57.81 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected, and said uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased. The June WTI contract settled down $1.02 at $58.07 and the July Brent contract settled down $1.03 at $61.12. The product markets also settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.22 cents at $1.9766 and the RB market settling down 3.67 cents at $2.0278. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland on Saturday for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy. The talks come after weeks of escalating tensions that have seen duties on goods imports between the world’s two largest economies increase well beyond 100%, amounting to what Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday described as the equivalent of a trade embargo. The negotiating teams convening in Switzerland are expected to discuss reductions to the broader tariffs. The talks should also cover duties on specific products, export controls and President Trump’s decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports.India attacked Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir on Wednesday and Pakistan said it had shot down five Indian fighter jets in the worst fighting in more than two decades between the nuclear-armed enemies. India hit targets in Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab for the first time since their last full-scale war more than half a century ago, triggering fears of a further escalation of military hostilities. Islamabad called the attacks a “blatant act of war” and said it had informed the U.N. Security Council that Pakistan reserved the right to respond appropriately to Indian aggression.Yemen’s Houthis said a ceasefire deal between the group and the United States does not include sparing Israel from operations, suggesting shipping attacks that disrupted global trade will not come to a complete halt.Shipments of most energy products are slowing in sync with the global economy. Exports of crude oil, gasoline, diesel and thermal coal all contracted during the January to April period when compared with the same months in 2024, as the economies of importer nations cut their demand in response to heightened trade uncertainty. According to data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler, global export volumes of crude oil from January through April totaled 4.93 billion barrels. That total was 1.3% lower than during the same period in 2024 and was driven mainly by a 9% decline in imports by China.
Oil production hike by OPEC+ nations triggers global market unrest, threatens U.S. energy dominance – OPEC+ nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan announced plans to boost global oil output by a combined 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, tripling prior targets. The decision announced Friday, May 2, has sent crude prices plummeting to four-year lows.The abrupt policy reversal, organized by Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to punish overproducing OPEC+ members like Iraq and Kazakhstan while aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump's push for lower oil prices. The move has plunged the energy market into turmoil, threatening U.S. shale firms and sharpening geopolitical tensions as Washington detects Riyadh's refusal to shield American energy ambitions. Saudi Arabia's shift from price defender to market disruptor marks a dramatic pivot. The 411,000 bpd increase – the second such surge this year – will add over 800,000 bpd by July's reassessment, analysts project. The kingdom's Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman framed it as a response to "healthy market fundamentals. However, insiders acknowledge the true motives behind the move: Disciplining OPEC+ cheaters, primarily Kazakhstan, and ingratiating the monarchy with Trump’s inflation-control agenda."It's a calculated move to punish non-compliance and wag the dog of American oil politics simultaneously," said Jorge Leon, an OPEC alumnus at Rystad Energy, calling the decision a "bombshell." Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had warned OPEC+ a month earlier not to "jeopardize U.S. energy security." Riyadh appears undeterred, however, leveraging softening relations with the second Trump administration and its polarizing trade war with China.The timing underscores OPEC+'s shift. As oil prices sank to $61 per barrel for Brent amid tariff-fueled recession fears, Trump's upcoming Middle East visit offers a strategic opportunity. With both sides instrumental in slashing prices, the alliance could stabilize oil flows ahead of potential Iranian sanctions relief, spiking regional tensions further.Kpler, an energy analytics firm, warns the output surge dooms American shale producers already battling unprofitable prices. WTI crude, now trading near $57 – a level surpassing the breakeven thresholds for many secondary formations – has ignited a drilling slowdown. U.S. crude production, projected to peak this year before declining, could drop up to 120,000 bpd annually as shale firms slash budgets."For most independents outside the Permian Basin drill core, this is beyond a speed bump – it's a parking lot," said a manager at an oilfield services firm, asking for anonymity given industry sensitivity. Kpler’s analysts added, "At current prices, there's no incentive to drill," with many operators reconsidering investments in speculative plays ahead of next year's expected Permian pipeline crunch.The ripple effect extends beyond the field. Goldman Sachs now predicts WTI could fall to $62 late this year despite U.S. demand staying strong, with recession risks from Trump's trade wars exacerbating downward pressure. JPMorgan's 18-month credit review of 150 shale firms revealed debt-to-income ratios surpassing 2016 crash levels.While Saudi Arabia's actions won favor in Washington circles, the White House remains wary. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan accused OPEC+ of "campaigning against external tariffs through its taps," signaling potential regulatory retaliation. The stakes are high: The bloc's pivot could undermine U.S. energy independence goals just as dire midterms loom.The move also fractures OPEC+ unity. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates – both reliant on oil revenues – have voiced concerns. Kazakhstan, singled out for its 422,000 bpd March overproduction, faces a loss of $50 billion by 2026 if prices stay below $60.Kremlin intrigue compounds the chaos. Though Russia's output was exempted, its oil revenues – a lifeline to Ukraine war chests – are projected to drop $8 billion monthly.The cascading effects leave little room for optimism. S&P Global warns U.S. oil demand could shrink by half a million bpd, with recession risks now priced into all sectors. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia needs $90 per barrel to balance its budget, yet their strategy could depress prices for years.For global markets, uncertainty reigns. OPEC+'s June 1 meeting – a possible ceiling-check – may see output hikes versions, but compliance disputes loom. "Every new buy button is a minefield," warns a London-based trader, noting positioning swings as large as 10% daily. As OPEC+ rewires oil geopolitics, the U.S. shale sector's decline and Saudi's recalibration of alliances carve a future defined by unstable prices and fractured partnerships. With every policy twist – whether Washington's tariffs or Riyadh's output taps – one question remains: Can any nation's energy stability survive the crossfires of this new old game? The answer, for now, is in the crude.
The Market Is Well Supplied - So Why Is Saudi Arabia Raising Oil Prices? - OPEC+ served two surprises to the oil trading world in a matter of weeks. First, it said it would bring back three times the amount of oil supply it planned to originally in May. Then, it said it would repeat the exercise in June. And then it emerged that Saudi Arabia is raising selling prices for Asia when it would have made more sense to cut them, on the face of it. OPEC+ is in the spotlight and it’s probably enjoying it as prices slide further down and U.S. shale drillers curb activity. OPEC+ said in April it would add 411,000 bpd to its collective output in May, throwing the oil market in disarray after curbing supply for months in a bid to prop up oil prices. The move was such a reversal of tactics that it was quite understandable that it took everyone by surprise. Prices fell. Speculation abounded, with analysts suggesting anything from Saudi Arabia doing Trump’s bidding to being so desperate they’d opted for flooding the market in the tried and tested method of dealing with competition in a rather final way. Officially, OPEC+ members that have been cutting their output said that the market fundamentals were healthy enough to absorb not one but two monthly boosts of 411,000 bpd each. Unofficially, the story is that the Saudis got fed up with the Iraqis and the Kazakhs who have been overproducing pretty much since the production cuts began. Kazakhstan really annoyed Riyadh, per that story, by not just overproducing but reaching record-high output levels earlier this year. Some cited data about Asian crude oil imports as evidence that OPEC+ is trying to pump up a narrative that does not reflect reality. The argument is that imports into the biggest demand region are weakening and global inventories are only slightly below the five-year average. So, we have a pretty well-supplied market, and OPEC+ is shooting itself in the leg with the output additions. Of course, there is also the oil demand outlook. The oil demand outlook is grim if one follows the International Energy Agency. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leader, does not follow the International Energy Agency. In fact, Saudi Arabia has a serious issue with the IEA and its forecasts, which the Saudis have slammed as blatantly biased in favor of the energy transition. Right now, the demand outlook is widely believed to be grim because of Trump’s tariff offensive against the world of trade. This outlook was a big reason why traders started the selloff in oil that brought prices down and then extended it as OPEC+ surprised said market with its two consecutive decisions to add more to that well-supplied market than initially planned. And then the news came that Saudi Arabia is raising its official selling price for crude for Asian buyers. In other news, OPEC’s total for April was down by 200,000 bpd, and not just because of the sudden slump in Venezuelan production after Chevron was kicked out by Trump. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also cut —and the UAE was given the green light to actually raise production. While traders and analysts try to wrap their heads around the logic guiding OPEC+, oil prices have rebounded because lower prices always and invariably stimulate greater demand for an essential commodity such as crude oil. Brent is back above $60 per barrel, and WTI has recovered to $58. This, of course, does not mean prices can’t fall again and stay fallen for an extended period of time. Perhaps at some point, it would even become officially clear whether the Saudis are doing Trump’s bidding or simply looking after their own interests as they have done repeatedly over the years. In the meantime, OPEC’s competitors will be suffering. This might even be one big reason why the cartel is adding supply if history is any indication.
Crude oil prices surge to $61.41 on trade deal hint, demand concerns - Oil prices saw a surge on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an impending trade agreement with a major economic power. This news ignited hopes for a reduction in his tariff policies.However, concerns about weakening demand and increased OPEC+ production continued to exert downward pressure on crude prices. Wednesday had seen sharp declines, with prices hovering near four-year lows after mixed U.S. inventory data revealed a cooling in fuel demand. Brent oil futures for July saw a rise of 0.5 percent to $61.41 a barrel (currently trading at $61.61), while West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 0.6 percent to $58.02 a barrel by 21:57 ET (01:57 GMT). WTI crude futures is currently trading at $58.62. Investors are closely monitoring these movements for insights into the oil price forecast. Thursday’s oil gains were largely driven by President Trump’s statement regarding a “major” trade deal with a significant country. Media reports yesterday indicated that the country in question was Britain.Any trade agreement finalized this week would mark the first since Trump introduced broad “reciprocal” tariffs against numerous major U.S. trading partners, although a 90-day exemption was subsequently announced for all countries except China.Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs has been a major drag on oil prices in recent weeks, as markets worried about their potential consequences. The oil price forecast has also been affected by recent economic data indicating weakness in both the U.S. and China, following their involvement in a trade dispute that began in April. “The word ‘uncertainty’ was bandied about several times by Powell, especially pertaining to the scope and magnitude of tariffs. Although negotiations are underway, the complexities in reaching trade deals are many. While the Fed hopes any tariff-driven spike in prices will be transitory, persistent price pressures of a considerable magnitude could cause inflation to become entrenched, particularly if trade deals fail to materialise or if tariffs are increased. As such, the central bank sees increased risk of higher unemployment and higher inflation down the line. This has elevated the possibility of stagflation, making the Fed’s path forward even more uncertain,” “As a result, the Fed is well positioned to wait and monitor forthcoming economic data points before deciding its next move. Powell stated the Fed is comfortable with its current stance and can afford to be patient, while also being prepared to act quickly if the economy weakens,” While the Trump administration has indicated its willingness to engage in trade discussions with China this week, Trump stated that he is unwilling to reduce his 145 percent tariffs on Beijing. China has also suggested that the talks taking place this week were primarily at the request of the U.S. Despite Thursday’s gains, oil prices have suffered significant losses so far in 2025. These losses have intensified in recent weeks due to growing concerns about slowing demand and rising production.Increased economic uncertainty has fueled concerns about demand. The Federal Reserve contributed to this uncertainty on Wednesday by maintaining interest rates and highlighting increased economic risks stemming from trade disruptions and a potential increase in inflation.Expectations of higher supplies have also put pressure on oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies announced plans to increase production by a considerably larger margin in June.However, this was partially offset by several major U.S. producers signaling a slowdown in domestic production, as a recent decline in oil prices prompted a reduction in capital spending.
Optimism About a U.S. Trade Deal With the U.K. and Trade Talks with China --The oil market ended Thursday’s session higher on optimism about a U.S. trade deal with the U.K. and planned trade talks with China. The market posted a low of $57.74 on the opening before it retraced most of Wednesday’s sharp losses. The crude market gradually traded higher throughout the session following the announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and Britain and on the hopes of a breakthrough in upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China’s top economic official on Saturday in Switzerland for negotiations over a trade war that is disrupting the global economy. The market, which continued to hold resistance at its downward trendline at $60.29 as it rallied to high of $60.05 ahead of the close. The market was also supported as the U.S. once again announced sanctions a third Chinese independent oil refinery and port terminal operators in China for purchases of Iranian oil. The June WTI contract settled up $1.82 at $59.52 and the July Brent contract settled up $1.72 at $62.84. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.34 cents at $2.04 and the RB market settling up 5.76 cents at $2.0854. U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “breakthrough deal” on trade that leaves in place a 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK while Britain agreed to lower its tariffs to 1.8% from 5.1% and provide greater access to U.S. goods. Britain’s car industry will see U.S. tariffs immediately cut to 10% from 27.5%, while levies on steel and aluminum will fall to zero. President Trump said the U.S.-UK trade deal will create an aluminum and steel trading zone and secure the pharmaceutical supply chain, although he said some of the details “are being written up.”U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration imposed sanctions on a third Chinese independent or “teapot” oil refinery and port terminal operators in China for purchases of Iranian oil. The U.S. Treasury designated the Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group refinery and three companies for operating a terminal at Dongying Port in Shandong Province.Sources said recent U.S. sanctions on two small Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil have created difficulties receiving crude and led them to sell product under other names, evidence of the disruption that Washington’s increased pressure is inflicting on Tehran’s largest oil buyer.According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output fell in April despite a scheduled output increase taking effect, led by a cut in Venezuelan supply on renewed U.S. attempts to cut the flows and smaller drops in Iraq and Libya. The survey showed that OPEC produced 26.60 million bpd in April, down 30,000 bpd from March’s total, with cuts by some producers offsetting higher Iranian supply. The reduction comes despite OPEC+ beginning in April to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts. U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his criticism on Thursday of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, complaining that the Fed is refusing to lower interest rates. He said cutting interest rates would be “like jet fuel” for the economy “but he doesn’t want to do it.”
Oil prices rise 3% on support from US-China trade hopes (Reuters) - Oil prices rose around 3% on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a breakthrough in looming trade talks between the U.S. and China, the world's two largest oil consumers. Brent crude futures settled up $1.72, or 2.8%, at $62.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.84, or 3.2%, to $59.91. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China's top economic official on May 10 in Switzerland for negotiations over a trade war that is disrupting the global economy. Optimism around those talks was providing support to the market, The countries are the world's two largest economies and fallout from their trade dispute was likely to lower crude consumption growth. Analysts cautioned that the recent tariff-driven volatility in the oil market was not over. "The global risk premium that was pushing oil prices up and down during the past couple of years has been replaced by a tariff premium that will also be fluctuating in response to the latest headlines out of the Trump administration," In another trade development, U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a "breakthrough deal" on trade that leaves in place a 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK while Britain agreed to lower its tariffs to 1.8% from 5.1% and provide greater access to U.S. goods. On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in OPEC+ will increase its oil output, pressuring prices. OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, a Reuters survey found, led by a cut in Venezuelan supply on renewed U.S. attempts to curb the flows and smaller drops in Iraq and Libya. Analysts at Citi Research lowered their three-month price forecast for Brent to $55 per barrel from $60, but maintained their long-term forecast of $60 a barrel this year. A U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could drive Brent prices down toward $50 per barrel on increased global supply, but without a deal prices could rise to over $70, they added. U.S. sanctions on two small Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil have created difficulties receiving crude and led them to sell product under other names, sources familiar with the matter said, evidence of the disruption that Washington's stepped-up pressure is inflicting on Tehran's biggest oil buyer.
Markets: Oil gains on trade optimism, up 3% on week Oil prices rose modestly during Asian trade on Friday, building on the previous session’s gains, as easing trade tensions between the world’s top oil consumers - the United States and China - supported market sentiment, while a freshly announced trade deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom also contributed to the uptick. As of 3 pm AEST (5 am GMT), Brent crude futures were up $0.28, or 0.4%, at $63.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also rose $0.28, or 0.5%, to $60.19 per barrel. Markets were buoyed by the news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland on 10 May. The talks are aimed at resolving longstanding trade disputes that have dampened global economic growth and, in turn, demand for crude oil. According to ANZ analysts, "The discussion could cover the treatment of fentanyl, include ways to reduce the trade imbalance in the near term, and include other strategic items such as Panama’s ports and TikTok. “Reportedly, China is willing to engage with the U.S. to strengthen drug control, offering a critical step to suspend the 20% fentanyl tariff.” Meanwhile, China’s latest customs data showed that exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year in April, outpacing forecasts, while imports declined by just 0.2%. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announced a breakthrough trade agreement. Under the deal, the U.K. will cut tariffs on U.S. imports to 1.8% from 5.1%, while the U.S. will reduce duties on British vehicles. However, a 10% tariff remains in place for most other British exports. Oil markets also weighed the potential impact of supply-side developments. ANZ analysts noted: "We see downside risks for oil prices amid a higher probability that OPEC+ will fully unwind the headline 2.2mb/d voluntary cuts by the end of 2025. This would be partly offset by the waning growth in U.S. shale oil output." Adding to geopolitical risks, the Indian army reported that Pakistan’s armed forces launched “multiple attacks” across India’s western border late Thursday and into Friday, raising concerns about heightened conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Despite mounting tensions, the oil market found support in improving macroeconomic signals and easing trade friction, helping prices remain resilient ahead of further diplomatic and OPEC+ developments.
WTI Tops $61 on Trade Hopes Oil rose as algorithmic traders fled short positions amid renewed optimism about trade talks between the US and China this weekend. West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.9% to settle near $61 a barrel, the highest in over a week, as the Trump administration weighs reducing levies on China to de-escalate tensions and temper the economic pain in both countries. The rally was limited by President Donald Trump’s comments that an 80% tariff on China “seems right.” Meanwhile, commodity trading advisers, which tend to exacerbate price swings, liquidated short positions to sit at 91% short in both WTI and Brent on Friday, compared with 100% short on May 8, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. Crude has tumbled from a mid-January peak on concerns the trade war will dent economic growth, while OPEC+ is reviving idled production. Measured optimism on trade negotiations has helped prices recover some ground after starting the week near the lowest since 2021. Fuel markets have also provided positive signs, with one gauge of strength in gasoline reaching the strongest in about six months. “WTI breaking back above $60 has likely triggered short-covering from newly established positions,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Optimism around potential progress with China is also providing support.” Still, while Trump hailed the pact with the UK as historic, specifics of the deal indicated it fell short of the “full and comprehensive” agreement he had promised. And even though Trump said negotiations with China would result in tangible progress, Beijing reiterated on Thursday its call for the US to cancel tariffs ahead of talks. The US, meanwhile, sanctioned a third so-called teapot refinery in China — along with port terminal operators, vessels and individuals — for allegedly facilitating the trade of Iranian crude. Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group was the main target of the action. The UK also sanctioned senior executives in an oil trading network that it says has been helping key Russian oil exports flowing. The country also plans to target more than 100 oil tankers. WTI for June delivery rose 1.9% to settle at $61.02 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement advanced 1.7% to settle at $63.91 a barrel.
Oil prices post weekly gains on US-China trade talk optimism (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Friday and notched their first weekly gains since mid-April as a U.S. trade deal with the United Kingdom turned investors optimistic ahead of talks between top officials from Washington and Beijing. Brent crude futures rose $1.07, or 1.7%, to settle at $63.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $1.11, or about 1.9%, to settle at $61.02. Week-over-week, both benchmarks gained over 4%. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said China should open its market to the U.S., and that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods "seems right," a day after he announced a deal lowering tariffs on British car and steel exports, among other agreements with the United Kingdom. The UK agreement and Trump's comments on China have raised hopes for similar deals between Washington and Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was to meet with China's top economic official Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland on May 10. Current U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 145%. "While prohibitively high, you can't knock the math ... 80% is substantially less than 145%," Chinese exports rose faster than expected in April while imports narrowed their decline, customs data showed on Friday, giving Beijing some relief ahead of the talks. Rising hostilities in the Middle East also boosted oil prices this week, Israel's military said it had intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards its territory, days after Oman mediated a ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen's Houthis, who claimed responsibility for Friday's attack. Still, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain and will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, its trading policies and the enforcement of sanctions on Iran and Russia, said Marcus McGregor, head of commodities research for asset management firm Conning. On Thursday, the U.S. imposed sanctions on a third Chinese independent oil refinery for purchases of Iranian crude, ahead of a fourth round of nuclear talks in Oman this weekend. Keeping a ceiling to oil price gains this week was the planned increase to oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+. However, a Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output edged lower in April as production declines in Libya, Venezuela and Iraq outweighed a scheduled increase in output. The survey was just enough to add an extra glimmer to markets already hopeful ahead of the U.S.-China trade talks, PVM analyst John Evans wrote to clients on Friday.
Israel Launches Airstrikes Near Syria’s Presidential Palace - -A week after the leader of Syria’s Islamist government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was talking about his openness to normalizing relations with Israel, the Israeli military has carried out yet more strikes against Syria, attacking the area around the presidential palace in the capital city of Damascus Friday. There were no reports of casualties in the Damascus strike, but a second drone strike against the Suwayda Governorate killed at least four. Sharaa warned this was a “reprehensible” Israelis attack on Syria, and a “dangerous escalation.” At least 20 Israeli strikes were carried out Friday.Dangerous escalation has been the order of the day since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over Syria in December. Though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially took credit for the regime change, Israel also immediately turned hostile to the HTS, invading southern Syria and occupying an ever-growing part of the southwest. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said today’s attack against the palace was a “clear warning” to Sharaa not to defy Israeli demands that they have no military assets south of Damascus. They also tried to link this to recent sectarian violence involving Syria’s Druze minority, saying they feel an obligation to protect the Druze. Israel already carried out a strike on Wednesday nominally to protect the Druze, These strikes only seem to be growing, and the Druze are only sometimes used as the pretext. HTS’s Islamist nature is also often the excuse, as well as just general claims of Israel national defense needs. Large scale anti-Israel protests were reported in Homs and Daraa after the news of the attack on Damascus. While Israel’s invasion and occupation of the southwest had mostly not been getting a lot of pushback outside of the specific region targeted, it seems this strike is waking more of Syria up to the situation.
Turkish Jets Interfere With Israeli Warplanes Attacking Syria - As Israel continues to escalate its attacks across Syria, they are running into some resistance from Turkey. Turkey is reportedly frustrated with the growing Israeli strikes on Syria, and there was an incident over the weekend where two Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled into Syrian airspace and “interfered” with Israeli warplanes actively attacking targets inside Syria.Officials are saying there was no direct conflict between the planes, though it is also being called the first direct contact between the two sides inside Syria. The Turkish planes reportedly tried to use electronic counter measures to try to warn the Israeli warplanes off.Details are still relatively scant on the matter, and the IDF denied that anything happened at all, maintaining that they have “full freedom of operation” to carry out attacks inside Syria as they see fit.. Both Turkey and Israel were seen as supporting the regime change in Syria in December, but they took opposite paths after it happened. Turkey has been closely supporting the new government, while Israel invaded the south and has launched hundreds of airstrikes against the rest of the country. Though their respective spheres of influence inside Syria don’t direct overlap, they are seen as conflicting, as seen in early April when Israel attacked an air base inside Syria that Turkey was intending to take over. Israel openly said the attack was a “message” to Turkey.Turkey reinforced the base, and there has been concern the two sides are on a collision course ever since. At the US behest, Turkey and Israel were reported to have held deconfliction talks at the time.Turkey sees Israel’s constant attacks on Syria as threatening what they envision as a potential ally, while Israel sees Turkey’s general interest in influence over Syria as a threat to their regional dominance.
Houthi missile strikes near main Israel airport -- A missile launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen struck near the main terminal of Israel’s airport close to Tel Aviv, reports detailed Sunday morning. The strike, which was not intercepted by the Israeli military, temporarily paused flights, but there were no immediate reports of fatalities, The New York Times reported. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) shared online that sirens sounded across the region “due to a projectile launch from Yemen.” The IDF is investigating the failure to intercept the strike. The military said several attempts were made to intercept the Houthis’ missile, but the missile struck near the Ben-Gurion International Airport, the Times reported. Israeli media reported that there were eight injured in the missile strike. Footage online showed the moment the missile hit in a grassy area within the airport’s perimeter. While the airport halted flights for about an hour, the departures and arrivals are moving forward as planned, the airport said in a statement on its website.
Yemeni Missile Strikes Israel's Ben Gurion Airport - A missile fired from Yemen struck an access road on the grounds of Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday, as a heavy US bombing campaign has failed to deter Yemen’s Houthis, who are officially known as Ansar Allah.According to The Times of Israel, the Israeli military tried multiple times to intercept the missile but failed. A US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system that’s deployed to Israel also failed to intercept the Yemeni missile. The missile left a crater, and six people were injured by the attack, though none of them were seriously hurt. The Houthis have fired a series of missiles and drones at Israel since the Israeli military resumed its genocidal war on Gaza on March 18, but the Sunday attack marked the first time a Yemeni missile made it past Israel’s air defenses. Later on Sunday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced the Yemeni force would impose a “comprehensive air blockade” on Israel by “repeatedly” targeting airports in the country. He said the move was a response to Israel “expanding aggressive operations against Gaza.” His announcement came after the Israeli military announced it was calling up tens of thousands of reservists to escalate in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel would respond to the Houthi attack. “We’ve acted against them in the past, and we’ll act again in the future,” he said. “This isn’t a one-and-done, but there will be some big hits.” Israel launched a few rounds of airstrikes on Yemen last year but hasn’t done so under the Trump administration. In March, the Israeli news site Ynet reported that the US has asked Israel not to respond to the Houthis’ attacks and said that US forces will handle the retaliation.Netanyahu also suggested that Israel might attack Iran in response to the Yemeni missile strike. On X, Netanyahu shared a Truth Social post from President Trump dated March 17. In the post, Trump said he would blame each Houthi attack on Iran.“President Trump is absolutely right!” Netanyahu wrote. “Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran. Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
Israel strikes Houthi targets in response to airport attack -Israel has attacked Houthi targets in the wake of a strike from the rebels on an airport near Tel Aviv, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). “A short while ago, [Israeli Air Force (IAF)] fighter jets struck terror targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist regime, along Yemen’s coastline,” a Monday IDF statement obtained by The Hill’s sister network NewsNation reads. “The strike was conducted in response to the repeated attacks by the Houthi terrorist regime against the State of Israel, during which surface-to-surface missiles and UAVs were launched toward Israeli territory and its civilians,” the IDF added in its statement. Over the weekend, Yemen-based Houthi rebels launched a missile that hit close to the main terminal of Israel’s airport near Tel Aviv. Eight people were injured via the strike, according to Israeli media. Following the strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a post on the social platform X that “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.” According to Monday’s IDF statement, parts of a Yemeni port that are used by the Houthis “as a central supply source” were hit as part of the strike, as well as a concrete plant that the rebels have “as a significant economic resource.” “This strike further degrades the Houthi regime’s economic and military buildup capabilities,” the Israeli military added.
Israel Launches Major Airstrikes on Yemen After Missile Hit Ben Gurion Airport - Israel launched major airstrikes in Yemen on Monday that targeted the Red Sea port of Hodeidah and a concrete factory near a city in the same province, strikes that came a day after a Houthi missile struck Israel’s Ben Gurion airport.The Israeli military said that about 20 of its warplanes took part in the attack and dropped about 50 munitions on the port and the concrete factory. The strikes were launched in coordination with the US.It’s unclear if US warplanes directly took part in the Israeli attack, but the US did launch other airstrikes in Yemen on Monday. According to Yemen’sSABA news agency, a total of 18 US airstrikes targeted the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and the Al Jawf province. SABA also reported that at least 21 people were injured by the attack on the Bajil cement factory, which it described as a preliminary toll. The Israeli military took credit for bombing the factory, claiming it “serves as an important economic resource for the Houthi terror regime and is used for building tunnels and military infrastructure.”Israel launched several rounds of airstrikes against Yemen last year, but this attack marks the first time the Israeli military bombed the country under the new Trump administration. Before the missile strike on Ben Gurion Airport, the Trump administration had asked Israel not to respond to the Houthis’ attacks and said that US forces would handle the retaliation. The Trump administration launched its bombing campaign in Yemen on March 15 after the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, announced they would re-impose a blockade on Israeli shipping in response to Israel violating the Gaza ceasefire deal by imposing a total blockade on the Palestinian territory. After Israel completely broke the ceasefire deal and resumed its genocidal war on Gaza on March 18, Yemeni forces began launching missiles and drones at Israel again despite the US bombing campaign. The US has launched over 1,000 airstrikes on Yemen since March 15, killing over 200 civilians, but the Houthis remain undeterred.After the missile strike hit the Ben Gurion airport, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced Yemen would impose an air blockade on Israel by “repeatedly” attacking its airports. The Houthis, who are known for their resilience, have vowed they will not stop their attacks on Israel or end the blockade on Israeli shipping unless there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli siege. They have offered to stop attacking US warships if the US stops bombing Yemen, but the Trump administration has shown no interest in the offer.
Israeli Airstrikes Pound Yemen for Second Day, Target Sanaa Airport - The Israeli military launched heavy airstrikes on Yemen for the second day on Tuesday, targeting the Sanaa International Airport and other infrastructure in the capital. According to Yemeni media, at least three people were killed and 38 were wounded in the attacks, which targeted the airport, a cement factory, and power plants. The IDF said the strikes on the airport targeted runways, aircraft, and infrastructure, and claimed the airport was “totally disabled.” The IDF claimed the attack on the cement factory “constitutes a blow to the regime’s economy and its military buildup.”The Israeli strikes that hit Yemen on Monday targeted the port of Hodeidah and the Bajil cement factory, which is also in the Hodeidah province. According to the Yemeni news agency SABA, the attacks on the port and the Bajil cement factory killed at least four people and wounded 39.The Israeli attacks on Yemen came after the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, successfully struck the Ben Gurion Airport in a missile attack. Before the missile strike, the Trump administration had asked Israel not to respond to the Houthis’ attacks and said that US forces would handle the retaliation.Israel’s strikes on key infrastructure in Yemen have dire implications for millions of Yemeni civilians who are struggling with food shortages, but the attacks are not expected to deter the Houthis. The Ansar Allah-led government, which controls an area of Yemen where about 70% to 80% of Yemenis live, is vowing it will respond.
Israeli Strikes Kill 110 in Gaza Over Three Days as Children Starve Under Blockade - Israeli attacks on Gaza killed 110 Palestinians and wounded 400 over the past three days, according to death toll updates released by Gaza’s Health Ministry, as children are starving to death under the US-backed Israeli blockade.In the same three-day period, seven bodies of Palestinians killed by previous Israeli attacks were recovered from the rubble. The Health Ministry’s numbers account for dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the Health Ministry said on Telegram.Israeli attacks over the weekend included the bombing of a house in Khan Younis, southern Gaza. According to rescue workers, the strike killed eight people, including a month-old baby, a one-year-old girl, and a one-year-old boy. Israeli strikes on Sunday included attacks on tent camps in al-Mawasi, killing at least ten people, according to Al Jazeera. Clashes were reported in southern Gaza on Sunday as Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, claimed its fighters killed IDF soldiers in an ambush near Rafah. Later in the day, the IDF confirmed two of its soldiers were killed in a booby-trapped tunnel near Rafah.On Saturday, Al Jazeera reported that a baby girl named Janan Saleh al-Sakafi died of malnutrition and dehydration at the Rantisi Hospital near Gaza City, as the Israeli military has blocked all goods from entering Gaza for more than two months.According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, 57 Palestinians have starved to death in Gaza, the majority being children. The UN’s World Food Program and the UN’s Palestinian relief agency have both said repeatedly that they have thousands of trucks ready to enter Gaza and bring much-needed relief, but the blockade remains.
One Child Killed Every 40 Minutes in Gaza: Over 16,000 Dead since Oct. 2023 - Palestine Chronicle --Since October 7, 2023, the Israeli army has killed 16,278 Palestinian children in its genocidal assault on Gaza, at a rate of one child killed every 40 minutes, the Ministry of Health reportedly said on Monday. In a statement, the ministry said that “among these martyrs are 908 infants who did not complete their first year, and 311 children who were born and martyred during the genocidal war.” The ministry warned of the escalating health and humanitarian catastrophe that the Gaza Strip is suffering as a result of more than 18 months of Israel’s genocide, which has left widespread destruction and tragic conditions, especially among children, women and the elderly. Director of Field Hospitals at the Ministry, Marwan Al-Hams, reportedly said that the Israeli blockade and the closure of crossings for more than two months have exacerbated the health situation. Primary healthcare centres have been closed due to bombings or because they are located within evacuation zones, depriving thousands of children and pregnant women of basic medical care, the MEMO report noted. Al-Hams also pointed out that polio vaccines are still prohibited from entering, threatening efforts to prevent the disease. The ministry recorded the death of 57 children due to malnutrition and health complications, amid a severe shortage of medicinal milk, especially for children with special needs. Al-Hams said that relying on one incomplete meal a day has caused many children to suffer from emaciation and malnutrition, “as they have been deprived of safe drinking water and healthy food due to the occupation’s targeting of infrastructure and the denial of aid entry.” The ministry also documented the killing of Palestinian children as they attempted to obtain food rations from charitable institutions that were directly bombed. It warned that thousands of children are now homeless and living in displacement camps that lack the minimum necessities of life, while pregnant women face extreme difficulty reaching hospitals, especially at night when the bombing intensifies.
Humanitarian aid ship bound for Gaza hit by drones off Maltese coast, evidence points to Israel - Israel used drones to attack a humanitarian aid ship en route to Gaza in the early hours of Friday, while it was in international waters just off the coast of the Mediterranean island Malta. Amid a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, in which virtually all aid has run dry, the ship, Conscience, was organized by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition (FFC), an international NGO. It set sail from the Tunisian port of Bizerte on Tuesday and was more than 1,600 nautical miles from Gaza when it was hit by drone fire. The attack began just after midnight Thursday, at 00:23 local time. The Freedom Flotilla Coalition said in a statement: “Armed drones attacked the front of an unarmed civilian vessel twice, causing a fire and a substantial breach in the hull. That there were no deaths or injuries was only down to chance. The FFC said that 30 people representing 21 nationalities were onboard the ship. The Turkish foreign ministry confirmed that Turkish nationals were among them. Speaking to CNN by phone from Malta, Yasemin Acar, the FCC’s press officer, said, “There is a hole in the vessel right now and the ship is sinking.” This was confirmed by photographic evidence. He added, “Attacking international human rights activists in international waters is a war crime.” CNN reported, “Footage shared on social media and verified by FCC activists shows passengers on the boat walking through smoke that appeared to have filled the inside of the vessel. Photos onboard the ship also show large holes in the structure, much of which is charred and covered in soot. “Trevor Ball, a former US Army senior explosive ordnance disposal team member, told CNN that the photos are consistent with two smaller blast munitions being used.” Photo showing damage to the vessel, including two large holes in the deck, caused by the drone attack [Photo: freedomflotilla.org] The FFC said the drones appeared to have targeted the generator, leaving the ship without power. Conscience put out an SOS signal, answered by a ship from Cyprus which the humanitarian crew explained was unable to “provide the critical electrical support needed”. The fire was only brought under control by a Maltese tugboat more than an hour after the ship was first fired upon. Forty people were waiting in Malta to be picked up by Conscience on Friday for the onward journey to Gaza. Among them were climate change and human rights activist Greta Thunberg and retired US Army Colonel Mary Ann Wright. Speaking to Reuters Friday, Thunberg said, “I was part of the group who was supposed to board that boat today to continue the voyage towards Gaza, which is one of many attempts to open up a humanitarian corridor and to do our part to keep trying to break Israel’s illegal siege on Gaza” She denounced the “systematic starvation of two million people.” Speaking to the AFP news agency the FFC said they “suspect” Israel was behind the attack, but “cannot confirm” it as fact. However, the FFC’s official statement was unequivocal, demanding, “Israeli ambassadors must be summoned and answer to violations of international law, including the ongoing blockade and the bombing of our civilian vessel in international waters.” There is little doubt that the attack was authorised by the war criminals in Tel Aviv, who are in the process of starving the roughly 2 million Palestinians who have survived the 15-month genocide.
Dozens of Community Kitchens in Gaza Shut Down Due To Israeli Blockade - Dozens of community kitchens in Gaza shut down on Thursday after running out of supplies due to the total Israeli blockade on the Palestinian territory, which is starving millions of civilians.Amjad al-Shawa, director of the Palestinian Non-Governmental Organizations Network (PNGO) in Gaza, told Reuters that the majority of the 170 community kitchens in Gaza have already shut down, and the few remaining will soon run out of supplies.Just a day earlier, the World Central Kitchen, a US-based charity,announced it was forced to halt operations in Gaza.“Everyone in Gaza today is hungry. The world must act now to save the people here,” Shawa said. “The remaining kitchens will be closing soon. The hunger catastrophe is beyond words. People are losing their lone source of food.”Shawa said that people had relied on the community kitchens for one and a half meals per day, but in recent weeks, it was cut down to one single meal. Palestinians who are able to cook for themselves are forced to use expired and contaminated flour. Babies have been suffering, and some have died of malnutrition, since their mothers are struggling to produce breast milk, and Israel is blocking the entry of baby formula.Israel first imposed its total blockade on March 2, and the collective punishment of Gaza’s civilian population has been strongly backed by the US. Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL), who was recently elected in the House in a special election for Mike Waltz’s seat, said in a post on X that Palestinians in Gaza should “starve away.”
Smotrich: Gaza Will Be 'Totally Destroyed,' Population Will Be 'Concentrated' - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Tuesday that within a few months, the Gaza Strip will be “totally destroyed” and the entire Palestinian population will be “concentrated” into a tiny area in the southern part of the Palestinian territory before being forced to leave as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign.“Within a few months, we will be able to declare that we have won. Gaza will be totally destroyed,” Smotrich said at a conference on illegal settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, according to The Times of Israel.“In another six months, Hamas won’t exist as a functioning entity… The population of Gaza will be concentrated from the Morag Corridor southwards. The rest of the Strip will be empty,” Smotrich said.The Morag Corridor refers to a strip of land between the southern Gaza cities of Khan Younis and Rafah.“The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places,” Smotrich added.The Israeli minister said that the Palestinian population will “leave in great numbers to third countries.” Throughout Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, Smotrich has been an outspoken proponent of the ethnic cleansing of the territory.Smotrich’s comments come after the Israeli government approved military plans to completely occupy Gaza. According to Axios, the plan will involve flattening every single building, forcing the civilian population into one small area, and pressuring Palestinians to leave, though it’s unclear where they could go.In his speech on Tuesday, Smotrich also vowed that the current Israeli government would annex the West Bank. “It will happen this term. It is one of our most important challenges. We are at a historic opportunity,” he said.Smotrich is a West Bank settler himself and holds another ministerial position in the Defense Ministry that gives him the power to expand settlements in the occupied territory.
Russia Thwarts Largest Drone Attack In History, Sparking Airport Chaos, Hours Before Victory Day Ceasefire - Hours before Putin's unilaterally declared three-day Victory Day ceasefire is expected to go into effect (starting May 8), Ukraine has launched a huge cross-border drone attack on Russia which has reportedly unleashed air traffic and flight chaos in an around Moscow, as well as other regions. Russian state media has said several Russian airlines were forced to cancel and reroute dozens of flights late Tuesday into Wednesday, amid off-and-on airport closures and flight stoppages. Russia's anti-air defense systems have been engaged in non-stop intercepts of inbound UAVs from Ukraine. This marks three consecutive days of drone attacks targeting the capital, at a sensitive moment the Kremlin is preparing to host dozens of world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, are also expected. Venezuela's Maduro is also in Moscow, where he's already met with President Putin. "Aviation authorities grounded flights at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky airports, as well as in the cities of Nizhny Novgorod, Kirov, Yaroslavl, Kazan," RT confirms. The same outlet is now saying the last hours have seen the largest drone attack against Russian soil in history... Apparently hundreds of drones were sent. Moscow has been directly targeted once again, with Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announcing the military intercepted nearly 20 inbound drones on the capital over the last half-day. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency has described of the flight chaos, "The restrictions were imposed to ensure the safety of civil aircraft flights." The Kremlin has said that Putin's ceasefire offer remains in force, but that the Russian military will undertake the appropriate response if Ukraine doesn't abide by it. Russian officials have condemned Zelensky for appearing to directly threaten Victory Day parades, such as the main televised events in the Red Square. A fresh statement from Putin's spokesman has described the following: The Russian military is doing everything necessary to ensure that the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory is held in a calm and peaceful atmosphere, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "The Kiev regime continues to demonstrate its true nature, its propensity for terrorist actions. Special services and our military are taking all necessary measures to ensure that the celebration of the Great Victory takes place in a calm, stable, and peaceful atmosphere," he said. But it looks like major disruptions are already happening, including drones fired at hit military facilities and airbases, also resulting in forced school closures and internet outages in various provinces.
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