US commercial oil supplies at a 45 week high; record nine rigs now drilling for oil in Ohio's Utica shale

US oil prices ended lower for the first time in three weeks on the likelihood that OPEC will ​agree to increase their production again in July when they meet on June 1st….after ending 2.4% higher at $62.49 a barrel last week after the US and China agreed to lower their tariffs to a sustainable level, defusing fears of a damaging trade war, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for June delivery edged down during Asian trading on Monday as disappointing Chinese economic data and uncertainty surrounding United States-Iran nuclear negotiations raised concerns over global oil demand, then fell sharply ahead of the open in New York after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, causing concerns about government debt and interest payments and leading to a pullback from all U.S. assets, including crude oil, but recovered to settle 20 cents higher at $62.49 a barrel as signs of a breakdown in U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear program offset concerns over Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating….June US oil was little changed on global markets on its last day of trading on Tuesday, as traders weighed the potential collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks against strong physical demand in Asia for the first month of this year, and cautious macroeconomic expectations regarding China, and likewise traded in a narrow range in New York as traders assessed the potential risks stemming from the Ukraine-Russia peace talks and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, and settled 13 cents lower at $62.56 a barrel on uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and on new data showing decelerating industrial output growth and retail sales in China, while the more actively traded contract for the US light sweet crude for July delivery settled 11 cents lower at $62.03 a barrel…with markets now citing the contract price for the benchmark US oil for July delivery, oil prices jumped on global markets Wednesday following a report that US intelligence suggested Israel was planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, fueling ​fears of a regional conflict. but pulled back dramatically from that overnight spike after the EIA reported unexpected increases in US oil and gasoline supplies, and settled 46 cents lower at $61.57 a barrel on the bearish government report on crude supplies and on news that Iran and the U.S. would hold a fresh round of nuclear talks later in the week…oil prices fell 1 per cent in Asian trading on Thursday after a report that OPEC+ was discussing a production increase for July, stoking concerns that global supply could exceed demand growth, and similarly settled the US trading session 47 cents lower at $64.44 a barrel on the potential further increase in OPEC+​'s output….oil price dropped for a 4th consecutive session on Asian markets on Friday, due to renewed pressure from supply resulting from a possible OPEC+ production increase in July, then plunged Friday morning in New York after Trump lamented the lack of progress in trade talks with EU representatives and suggested a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, but then drifted higher in thin pre-holiday trading as traders’ conviction that the US and Iran could reach a nuclear deal waned while strong US data buoyed a shaky demand picture, and oil settled 33 cents higher at $61.53 per barrel as U.S. buyers covered short positions ahead of the three-day weekend amid worries over the latest round of nuclear talks between American and Iranian negotiators, but still finished 1.5% lower for the week, while the contract for the benchmark US oil for July delivery, which had settled the prior week priced at $61.97, ended 0.7% lower…

natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished the week unchanged, after rising two of the prior three weeks, as a building glut of gas in storage tempered otherwise bullish fundamentals.. after falling 12.1% to $3.334 per mmBTU last week on another large inventory increase and on forecasts for milder weather, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery opened 17.2 cents lower on Monday and continued falling, as mild weather forecasts and steady production applied bearish pressure throughout the session, and settled 22.1 cents or nearly 7% lower at a three-week low of $3.113 per mmBTU on an increase in output despite pipeline maintenance that curtailed gas flows from West Texas and trapped an excess of gas in the Permian basin, and caused spot prices at the Waha hub to turn negative for the fourth time this year….however, natural gas opened 4.9 cents higher on Tuesday and continued their pre-market ascent, as bargain-hunting traders found value in the recently diminished contract, and settled 31.4 cents or 10% higher at $3.427 per mmBTU on a decline in daily output, forecasts for more demand next week, long-term forecasts for a hotter-than-normal summer and what some analysts called a technical bounce….natural gas opened 1.8 cents lower on Wednesday, and traded largely sideways throughout the session, as fundamentals remained unchanged, then settled 5.9 cents lower at $3.368 per mmBTU on a smaller-than-expected decline in daily output so far this month, and on forecasts that demand would remain low across much of the country in coming weeks….natural gas prices started ​trading 6.1 cents lower on Thursday ahead of what was expected to be a bearish storage report, then pulled back after a brief rally on the report’s release to settle 11.5 cents lower at $3.253 per mmBTU, as the EIA storage report came in slightly bearish versus already bearish expectations…natural gas prices drifted lower early Friday, even as changes in weather patterns were setting demand on a course for intensification, then turned modestly higher heading into the afternoon, with the contract’s expiration looming early next week and the official start of summer promising more heat and stronger demand, and settled 8.1 cents higher at $3.334 per mmBTU as traders shrugged off declines in spot markets and instead looked ahead to summer demand with the Memorial Day weekend’s unofficial start to the season, and thus ended unchanged for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending May 16th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 120 billion cubic feet to 2,375 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 333 billion cubic feet, or 12.3% below the 2,708 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on May 16th of last year, but 90 billion cubic feet, or 3.9% more than the five-year average of 2,285 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 16th of May over the most recent five years….the 120 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was close to the 118 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, but it was quite a bit more than the 78 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as much more than the average 87 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same mid May week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 16th indicated that after a modest increase in our oil imports and little change in demand, we again had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the twelfth time in sixteen weeks, and for the 20th time in forty-five weeks, even after a decrease in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 247,000 barrels per day to average 6,089,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 214,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 138,000 barrels per day to average 3,507,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,582,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending May 16th, an average of 109,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 586,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 5,000 barrels per day higher at 13,392,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,560,000 barrels per day during the May 16th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,490,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 16th, an average of 89,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 310,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending May 16th averaged a rounded 240,000 barrels per day less than what what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +240,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a small error or omission in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 310,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 190,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 120,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventy-second SPR increase in the past eighty-two weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 5,871,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 13.5% less than the 6,787,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 5,000 barrels per day higher at 13,392,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 8,000 barrels per day higher at 12,958,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day lower at 434,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.2% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 90.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,490,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 16th, their highest utilization rate in seventeen weeks, up from their 90.2% utilization rate of a week earlier, but down from the 91.7% utilization rate of eighteen weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then an extended period of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 16,490,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were just fractionally more than the 16,482,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending May 17th of 2024, but were 0.5% less than the 16,578,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending May 17th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.9%, also quite low for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 178,000 barrels per day to 9,561,000 barrels per day during the week ending May 16th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 327,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 4.9% less than the 10,049,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending May 17th of last year, and 3.3% less than the gasoline production of 9,883,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending May 17th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 69,000 barrels per day to 4,712,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 69,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with that production increase, our distillates output was 7.0% less than the 5,064,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending May 17th of 2024, and 9.5% less than the 5,206,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending May 17th, 2019…

With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the second time in twelve weeks and by the most since January, increasing by 816,000 barrels to 225,522,000 barrels during the week ending May 16th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,022,000 barrels to a twenty week low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 150,000 barrels per day to 8,644,000 barrels per day, and even though our imports of gasoline fell by 75,000 barrels per day to 724,000 barrels per day while our exports of gasoline rose by 50,000 barrels per day to 983,000 barrels per day….But after twelve gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifteen weeks, our gasoline supplies were 0.6% lower than last May 17th’s gasoline inventories of 226,822,000 barrels, and were about 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 4th time in 17 weeks, increasing by 579,000 barrels to 104,132,000 barrels during the week ending May 16th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,155,000 barrels to a 20 year low during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 365,000 to 3,412,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 75,000 barrels per day to 1,358,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 38,000 barrels per day to 141,000 barrels per day...But after 42 inventory withdrawals over the past 70 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 10.8% below the 116,744,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on May 17th of 2024, and were still about 16% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 26th time over the past year, increasing by 1,328,000 barrels over the week, from 441,830,000 barrels on May 9th to a 45 week high of 443,158,000 barrels on May 16th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 3,454,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after those increases, our commercial crude oil inventories remained 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still 24.7% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of May over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this May 16th were 3.4% less than the 458,845,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on May 17th of 2024, and 2.6% less than the 455,168,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 19th of 2023, but were 5.6% more than the 419,801,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on May 20th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count decreased by ten during the week ending May 23rd, the eighth decrease in ten weeks, as eight rigs targeting oil and two rigs targeting natural gas were removed...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 23rd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (May 16th) and this week’s (May 23rd) count, the third column shows last week’s May 16th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 24th of May, 2024…

despite the decrease in active drilling rigs nationally, you might note that Ohio’s Utica shale ​saw a net ​increase of 2 rigs this week, after one ​rig was added last week…however, it's more complicated than that, because there was a lot of movement ​among rigs statewide....rigs added to Ohio's Utica this week included oil rigs in Belmont, Harrison, Guernsey, Tuscarawas, and Jefferson counties, while Jefferson lost a natural gas rig and Carroll and Noble counties saw rigs targeting oil removed; a week earlier, an oil rig had been added to Harrison county, which now has three oil rigs running...​following those changes, Ohio now has nine ​Utica rigs targeting oil and three rigs targeting natural gas, while another ​Utica shale rig is targeting natural gas in Beaver County PA..

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Ascent 1Q Drilled 18 Wells, Produced 2 Bcfe/d, Lost $362 Million - Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter 2025 update on May 7. 1Q25 net production averaged 2,002 MMcfe/d (2.0 Bcfe/d), consisting of 1,680 MMcf/d of natural gas, 13,833 bbls/d of oil, and 39,789 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 16% of the overall production mix for the quarter.

North Hudson Raises $344M for Non-Op Investments, Including Utica --Marcellus Drilling News -- The oil and gas industry is large and complex, including how companies raise money to drill new wells. One of the ways companies get financing to drill is via partners that invest but don't take an active role. It's called being a non-operated (non-op) owner or partner. A company (another driller, an investment company, bank, etc.) will give an active driller money and, in return, will receive a percentage ownership in the well and its production. North Hudson Resource Partners, a Houston-based energy investment firm, is one such company. North Hudson has, in the past, raised multiple rounds of money from investors and invested that money in different plays, including the Utica Shale.

EOG Cuts Back on Oil Drilling in Some Places, but Not in the Utica -- EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns nearly half a million acres of leases in the Ohio Utica (~460,000 acres). EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and considers it one of the company’s “premium” and “emerging” plays. EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. During the company’s first quarter 2025 update in early May, we learned that EOG is cutting $200 million from its 2025 spending plan, believing Trump’s tariffs will lead to a slowdown in oil demand. However, the company is not cutting spending or work in the Utica

Vast Majority of MPLX NatGas Processing Happens in Marcellus/Utica -- Marcellus Drilling News -In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged in the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including the ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. However, the M-U still plays a starring role for the company. MPLX recently issued its first quarter 2025 update. CEO Maryann Mannen said most of the company's first quarter profits were from its natural gas and NGL segment in the Northeast.

Marcellus/Utica Gas Ready to Power the AI Revolution - Marcellus Drilling News - - Yesterday, the first of what will no doubt be many such events, the Appalachian AI Energy Conference (sponsored by Shale Directories) was held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Pittsburgh/Southpointe. Event speakers explored why Appalachia is uniquely suited to meet AI’s massive energy needs. CNX’s VP of sustainable development, Brent Bobsein, spoke about the region’s “massive opportunity.”

New Pipes, Data Centers, LNG – Is M-U Set to Increase Production? - Marcellus Drilling News - -The Marcellus/Utica region is the United States’ top natural gas production area, accounting for about one-third of the country’s daily output. Natural gas production in the M-U has soared from 2 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) to over 33 Bcf/d today in the past 15 years. Growth has slowed in recent years due to pipeline constraints, but new pipeline projects, rising Gulf Coast LNG demand, and in-basin data center development could drive a resurgence. Despite past challenges like canceled pipelines and a focus on the Permian, our region’s vast potential and improving infrastructure suggest a breakout, according to RBN Energy. However, low gas prices and regulatory hurdles remain big concerns, though data centers and LNG exports could boost demand significantly.

Is the Marcellus/Utica Finally Poised for a Gas-Production Breakout? --The Marcellus/Utica region is by far the most prolific natural gas production area in the U.S., accounting for about one-third of the nation’s daily output. The shale play experienced phenomenal growth in the 2010s, its gas production rising from less than 2 Bcf/d to more than 33 Bcf/d over that decade. But the pace of growth has slowed dramatically in recent years, mostly due to takeaway constraints. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how a combination of new pipeline projects, in-basin data center development and incremental Gulf Coast LNG demand might breathe new life into the Marcellus/Utica. In their production-growth heyday a few years back, the “dry Marcellus” in northeastern Pennsylvania and the NGL-packed “wet Marcellus/Utica” in southwestern Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and eastern Ohio garnered more than their share of attention. But then came the Permian, which like Beyoncé or Taylor Swift stole the show when crude-oil-focused development activity in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico took off like a SpaceX rocket. It didn’t help that much of the energy news out of Appalachia the past few years has been about pipeline projects that were set back or canceled — or that took what seemed like eons to finally advance to construction and operation. Even out of the spotlight, the Marcellus/Utica has remained a production powerhouse. As shown in Figure 1 below, the broader region (Marcellus/Utica plus other parts of Appalachia) has been hovering between 34 Bcf/d and 36 Bcf/d through the first half of the 2020s, with only a few MMcf/d coming from the “other” category. Of the current ~35 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica production, about 11 Bcf/d comes out of the dry Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania and the other 24 Bcf/d comes out of the wet Marcellus/Utica: ~10 Bcf/d from northern West Virginia, ~9 Bcf/d from southwestern Pennsylvania, and ~5 Bcf/d from eastern Ohio. (RBN estimates that more than 1 MMb/d of NGLs is currently being “recovered” — that is, not “rejected” into natural gas for its Btu value — in the wet Marcellus/Utica, more than 400 Mb/d in both southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia and more than 200 Mb/d in eastern Ohio.) As all but our youngest readers will recall, the rapid expansion of Marcellus/Utica production upended traditional gas-flow patterns in the Northeast. For decades, the region had piped in the vast majority of its natural gas needs from the Gulf Coast, the Midcon, the Rockies and Canada. But as we discussed in our Drill Down Report, 50 Ways to Leave the Marcellus, the Northeast quickly flipped to a net “exporter” of gas and midstreamers scrambled to (1) allow for bidirectional flows on existing pipelines and (2) build greenfield pipelines to enable increasing volumes of Marcellus/Utica gas to flow to the Midwest, the Gulf Coast, the Southeast and Canada. Also, several smaller, in-basin pipelines were either built or expanded to allow more gas to flow from production areas to larger-diameter takeaway pipelines, and a couple of projects enabled a modest increase in gas flows into New England. And, as we’ll discuss in more detail later, gas demand within the Northeast increased, in part as power plant developers in particular sought to take advantage of the readily available, favorably priced natural gas being produced in the Marcellus/Utica. Most important, perhaps, several thousand megawatts (MW) of older, coal-fired power plants in the region were replaced by dozens of new gas-fired combined-cycle plants, which generate considerably lower volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). And still more gas-fired plants are under development in the region, in part to meet an expected rise in power demand from data centers. Figure 2 below shows the largest pipelines moving Appalachia-sourced gas out of the basin, which include — as we said — a mix of large pipes like ANR (purple line), Columbia Gas (blue line), Rockies Express (REX; dark-green line), Tennessee Gas (orange line), Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO; red line) and Transco (brown line) that have been made bidirectional during the Shale Era and new pipes like NEXUS (light-green line) and Rover (yellow line) built to provide still more egress capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica. For many years, there was a seesaw race in the Marcellus/Utica between egress capacity and production, with E&Ps holding back on increasing their output until the next increment of pipeline capacity came online. By the late 2010s and early 2020s, it became increasingly difficult to secure needed approvals and permits for new takeaway projects — especially newbuild efforts in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states — and the pace of capacity additions stalled. Many midstreamers (and their attorneys) surely could recite the proposals that failed to advance: the Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania through New York, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline from West Virginia to North Carolina, and the Penn East Pipeline from Pennsylvania into New Jersey, to name just a few. One major project — the 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP; aqua line in Figure 2) from northern West Virginia to south-central Virginia — managed to make it through, but it literally took an act of Congress. Thanks in large part to MVP, several other efforts to add incremental egress capacity are in the works — including a big project unveiled by Williams on May 5. Before we get to those, we should note that, with major takeaway additions few and far between the past few years, Marcellus/Utica E&Ps have been carefully managing their production levels so as not to exacerbate regional oversupply issues and further reduce the price they receive for their gas, which is typically between $0.30/MMBtu and $1/MMBtu lower than Henry Hub. Most producers have done this by shifting to maintenance mode — that is, limiting their drilling-and-completion activity to levels that enable them to keep their output close to flat. E&Ps and gas marketers also have been supporting midstreamers’ efforts to expand takeaway capacity and encouraging the development of additional in-basin and near-basin demand from data centers, industrials and other customers. We expect that incremental takeaway capacity from the projects we’ll discuss next — and incremental demand from customers within or near the Marcellus/Utica region — will enable producers to ramp up their output gradually over the next few years. Several projects aimed at increasing egress capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica have been advancing over the past couple of years, many of them along Transco. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll divide the projects into three buckets and work our way from north to south. In the northernmost first bucket, Williams in July 2024 started service on its Regional Energy Access expansion project (yellow line), which helped to debottleneck the existing eastbound route from northeastern Pennsylvania to New Jersey and Maryland and allows Transco to move an incremental 829 MMcf/d.In the second bucket, we’ll note the handful of projects tied to Station 165 — the southern terminus of MVP. We’ll begin with Williams’s recently announced Power Express project (dashed purple line), which will run north from Station 165 along existing rights of way to northern Virginia, the biggest concentration of existing and planned data centers in the world. Williams said during its quarterly earnings call earlier this month that the project already has an anchor shipper and will provide a whopping 950 MMcf/d of incremental capacity. Nothing’s been filed yet, but Williams expects to bring Power Express online in Q3 2030.The other projects associated with Station 165 include:

• The Carolina Market Link (orange line), which came online in Q1 2024, added 78 MMcf/d of firm service south from Station 165 to delivery points in Cherokee County, SC. Patriots Energy Group (which operates a gas pipeline serving three counties in north-central South Carolina) and Duke Energy signed up for that capacity.
• The Southside Reliability Enhancement Project (green line), which started up in December 2024, added and upgraded compression and other facilities to increase takeaway by 423 MMcf/d on Transco’s existing system in southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. The project also allowed an incremental 160 MMcf/d to flow east from Station 165 via Transco’s South Virginia Lateral for delivery to North Carolina’s Northampton and Hertford counties. And it enabled an additional 263 MMcf/d to move south from an interconnect with Williams’s Pine Needle LNG storage/peaking facility in Guilford County, NC, to Iredell County, NC.
• The Commonwealth Energy Connector (dashed pink-and-black line), slated for startup in Q4 2025, will install additional compression and six miles of new pipeline along Transco’s South Virginia Lateral in Brunswick and Greensville counties in southern Virginia to expand capacity by 105 MMcf/d.
• The Southeast Supply Enhancement (SSE) project (dashed blue lines), which via 55 miles of pipeline looping and other improvements will add a total of 1.6 Bcf/d of capacity along three paths, each extending south from Station 165: to Station 160 in Rockingham County, NC (Path 1; dashed light-blue line); to Station 145 in Cleveland County, NC (Path 2; dashed medium-blue line); and the Station 85 Zone 4 Pool in Choctaw County, AL (Path 3; dashed dark-blue line).

In upcoming blogs in this series, we’ll discuss the Borealis Pipeline project in more detail. We’ll also look at the impact of new LNG export projects in Louisiana and Texas on Marcellus/Utica producers and the efforts by those producers and others to spur the development of more gas-fueled projects within and near the Appalachian Basin, including power plants tied to new data centers. And we’ll examine the latest drilling and production plays by gas-focused E&Ps in the Pennsylvania/West Virginia/Ohio region to help assess how quickly a new round of Marcellus/Utica production growth might begin in earnest.

31 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 12 – 18 - Marcellus Drilling News - - For the week of May 12 – 18, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica was up five from the previous week. Last week, 31 new permits were issued in the M-U. In the Keystone State (PA), seven new permits were issued. The top permittee was Range Resources, which was issued four permits in Washington County. Seneca Resources scored two permits in two different counties: Elk and Tioga. PennEnergy Resources received a single permit in Butler County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BUTLER COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | ELK COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | TIBURON OIL & GAS | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Low Marcellus Break-Even Prices Keep Region #1 for Gas Production -- Marcellus Drilling News - -The Marcellus Shale has a distinct advantage over every other gas-focused shale play in the country: It’s WAY cheaper than anywhere else to produce gas in the Marcellus. It’s called the break-even point, when a driller makes a profit after paying for expenses. The break-even in the Marcellus is *below* $2/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) for many drillers, including giants EQT and Expand Energy. Other gas-focused plays, like the Haynesville, cost a lot more—$3.50/Mcf or more for break-even. But then, the Haynesville is much closer to Gulf Coast LNG export facilities, so it costs much less to pipeline the gas. That’s OK, the Marcellus has a geographic advantage, too.

Trump Deal Trades NY Offshore Wind for Constitution, NESE Pipes -- Marcellus Drilling News - - It is “The Art of the Deal” with Donald J. Trump. Only DJT could pull off such a miracle. We are referring to a deal just struck (on Monday) with New York Governor Kathy Hochul. Trump will allow New York to blow $5 billion on an idiotic offshore wind project (off the coast of Long Island) in return for Hochul allowing the construction of two long-stalled pipeline projects: The Constitution Pipeline and the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) Project, part of the Transco pipeline system. We had no idea NESE was on the table as part of a potential deal!

Antis Convince Rockland County, NY Legislators to Oppose Pipe Proj. -- Marcellus Drilling News - -The Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline (owned by Enbridge) transports up to 3.09 Bcf/d through a pipeline that is 1,131 miles long. Algonquin connects to Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO), Millennium Pipeline, and Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline and supplies New England with critically needed natural gas supplies for power generation and consumer use. As we told you in September 2023, Enbridge conducted an open season to gauge interest in expanding Algonquin’s capacity to flow more gas into New England—mainly from the Marcellus/Utica—called Project Maple (see Enbridge Open Season to Expand Algonquin Pipe in New England). Since that time, anti-fossil fuel nutters (like Food & Water Watch, Sierra Club, and others) have mounted a coordinated attack against the project (see our Project Maple stories here). Here we are, almost two years later, and the antis finally have a sliver of support—from the emasculated legislators of Rockland County, NY.

Williams Plans New Transco Expansion to Serve 'Power-Hungry' Virginia — Williams has unveiled a major expansion of its Transco pipeline network with the newly announced Power Express project, a 950 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) expansion aimed at meeting surging power generation needs in Virginia. The project is slated to enter service by the third quarter of 2030. The Transco pipeline delivers natural gas through a 10,000-mile interstate transmission pipeline system extending from south Texas to New York City. The pipeline system transports approximately 15% of the nation’s natural gas. The expansion underscores the pipeline operator’s strategy to support rapidly growing electricity markets increasingly driven by data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which require reliable and scalable natural gas capacity. The expansion joins a growing list of Transco initiatives, including the recently completed Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway and Southeast Energy Connector, as well as ongoing construction on the Alabama Georgia Connector. In addition to the Virginia expansion, Williams reported progress on its Socrates Power Innovation project in New Albany, Ohio. The $1.6 billion development includes two advanced natural gas-fired generation facilities—Socrates North and South—with a combined capacity of 400 megawatts (MW). Each site, covering about 20 acres, is designed to provide 200 MW of behind-the-meter power for AI and data center operations. Socrates is already under construction and is fully contracted under a 10-year fixed-price power purchase agreement. Regulated by the Ohio Power Siting Board, the Socrates project is expected to be in service by Q3 2026. Construction activities include the installation of high-efficiency gas turbines, substations, and emissions control technology to minimize environmental impact. The company noted the project’s role in reinforcing grid reliability and enabling power-hungry industries to scale in the Columbus metro area. Beyond Virginia and Ohio, the company is actively advancing other projects, including its Overthrust Westbound Expansion and deepwater pipeline systems tied to the Whale and Ballymore fields. These developments are expected to further boost earnings through 2026.

Strategy Revealed for Building 3 GW Gas-Fired AI/Data Center in SWPA - Marcellus Drilling News - In January, MDN brought you the news that TECfusions, based in Tampa, Florida, had purchased 1,395 acres in Upper Burrell (Westmoreland County), PA, for a groundbreaking data center project called TECfusions Keystone Connect (see Massive 3 GW Gas-Fired AI/Data Center Coming to Southwest Pa.). The site is the old Alcoa R&D campus and the surrounding real estate in New Kensington. The project will transform the shuttered office and industrial site into a state-of-the-art data center campus, with plans to deploy up to 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired capacity over six years, using gas wells on the property (see Massive 3 GW Gas-Fired AI/Data Center in SWPA to Use Local Wells). At the Appalachian AI Energy Conference held earlier this week, TECfusions COO Mark Hamilton laid out the company’s strategy for developing the site moving forward

Backlog for Natural Gas Turbines Expands on Surging Demand, Supply Constraints -There is tremendous buzz around natural-gas-fired turbines right now with backlogs reportedly stretching five years into the future due to supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and a surge in demand. The power generation industry is poised for a major upswing as data center development and overall electricity demand continue to accelerate, driving an even greater need for gas turbines. In today’s RBN blog, we will explore why gas turbines are so challenging to build and why there’s such a manufacturing backlog. As we noted recently in Only Happy When It Rains, there’s been a lot of talk the past few months about artificial intelligence (AI) and plans by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and others to build a slew of data centers — energy hogs that require vast amounts of around-the-clock electricity. Developers have been considering the full gamut of power-generation sources — everything from renewables to nuclear — but almost everyone understands that gas-fired plants will be a big part of the solution. A number of major gas producers and just about every big midstreamer with a gas pipeline network have been talking up their plans to serve these new power plants, and several gas-fired projects — many tied directly to data centers — have already been announced. And while there are other fundamental factors stimulating demand for gas-fired power generation, the high profile of the data center development has put a spotlight on the prospects for acquiring the turbines needed to run a gas-fired power plant, a bigger challenge than it might appear. Given their size and complexity, it’s no surprise that turbine manufacturing can be expensive and time consuming. A small to medium gas turbine can weigh anywhere from 6,000 to 16,000 pounds but GE Vernova’s enormous gas turbines (see photo below) — among the largest and most advanced in the world — can weigh up to 700,000 pounds (350 tons), making manufacturing and delivery challenging. One of the biggest issues for would-be customers is that only three prominent players manufacture gas turbines — GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Power and Siemens Energy — and all three are focused on meeting their existing contracts rather than capacity expansion (more on that in a bit). One reason few firms manufacture gas turbines is that they are highly complex and expensive to build, and the plants themselves require massive capital investment. (GE Vernova is spending $160 million to expand its facility near Greenville, SC, one of the largest in the world.) Plus, getting all the necessary parts, including steel, can be especially challenging in today’s environment. (We’ll discuss how tariffs could impact these materials in Part 2 of this series.) Those factors have helped contribute to the backlogs being reported today by turbine manufacturers, with customers urged to secure orders early to address multi-year delays. For example, as we just said, GE Vernova is expanding in South Carolina to meet surging demand, but that won’t do much to reduce its order backlog right away. GE Vernova has the capacity to produce more than 50 GW of turbines over the next five years but already has orders in place for 29 GW, up from 22 GW in Q4 2024. That means the company has slots available for 21 GW of future orders, which won’t have a chance of arriving until 2028 or even 2030. The backlog at Mitsubishi, which had $12.5 billion in gas turbine orders in 2024, is currently 15-18 GW based on the 2024 order volume. Orders placed today face multi-year delays, with deliveries around 2029 or 2030. Industry analysts estimate the turbine backlog at Siemens at 25-30 GW. Let’s look next at the factors that manufacturers say are contributing to the backlog:

• Surging Demand: As we noted earlier, several factors are contributing to a significant increase in electricity, with one notable factor being the expected surge in data center demand and their search for more power (see Storm Front, Dive In, and We Should Be Friends, Part 1 and Part 2). Gas-fired power plants are considered ideal candidates to power data centers because they can offer the 24x7 electricity that data centers demand. Future power demand in the U.S. is uncertain but the U.S. National Power Demand Study expects on-grid electricity demand in the Lower 48 to increase from 4,170 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to between 4,734 and 4,970 TWh in 2030; 5,139 and 5,573 TWh in 2035; and 5,591 and 6,127 TWh in 2040.
• Manufacturers’ Reluctance: Despite the feeding frenzy for data centers and the power they will demand, turbine manufacturers have been reluctant to invest more heavily in expanding production. They’ve been burned at least twice in recent years — first during the 2010s, when the gas turbine market collapsed, leading to massive layoffs and restructuring. Then, in 2017-18, global demand fell again due to several factors, including low energy demand growth and improvements in energy efficiency. Because the turbine market changed so rapidly in previous years, executives have said they will sign large agreements for turbine manufacturing but are reluctant to make major increases in production lines. In a letter to shareholders in February, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik emphasized his company would “defend shareholder value” rather than chase short-term demand.
• Supply-Chain Bottlenecks: Turbine components such as castings and forgings — used for turbine blades — rely on the same suppliers as the aerospace and defense industries, which are also booming. This creates competition for critical parts like turbine blades and combustion systems. Plus, there are concerns about tariffs, which could cause bottlenecks.
• Shortage of Skilled Workers: The massive layoffs mentioned above caused a shortage of workers with expertise in turbines; now, with the surge in demand, companies are struggling to rehire them. Because turbine manufacturing is specialized, it can take years to train new engineers and technicians and there is fierce competition in the energy industry for the same workers.

There’s no quick fix to the turbine backlog — a result of surging demand, supply-chain issues, labor gaps and manufacturing caution — and industry analysts say turbines won’t be available at scale until at least 2030. And, as you’d guess, the pace of turbine deliveries will have a direct impact on domestic demand for natural gas. In Part 2 of this series, we’ll address the surging costs, challenges in finding materials, and tariffs.

Kinder Morgan Proposes 290-Mile Gas Pipeline Expansion Spanning Three States - Kinder Morgan, one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in the United States, introduced plans for a multibillion-dollar expansion of its existing natural gas pipeline system in the southeastern U.S. back in February, according to Augusta-Aiken WRDW-TV. The proposal, currently under review, calls for the addition of 14 new pipeline segments totaling approximately 290 miles. These lines would stretch across Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama. The plan also includes upgrades to 13 compressor stations and the installation of four new metering facilities to manage and measure gas flow. “This is an expansion of an existing natural gas pipeline system that we have operated in Georgia for over 50 years,” Allen Fore, vice president of Kinder Morgan, told Augusta-Aiken WRDW-TV. “It’s designed to increase natural gas supply for the region.” Branded as the “South System 4 Expansion,” the project is being positioned as necessary to meet long-term energy demand, even for those who don’t directly use natural gas at home. Some property owners in Jefferson County have expressed concern about how the project might interfere with future land use. In recent public forums, Kinder Morgan has emphasized its willingness to work with landowners to accommodate specific needs. If regulatory approvals are granted, construction could begin in the coming years, with operations expected to start between 2028 and 2029.

Pipeline Operators Favor Buying Over Building Despite Trump Push for Projects(Reuters) — President Donald Trump's pro-energy policies were meant to speed the construction of the United States' next generation of energy infrastructure, but many oil and gas pipeline operators would still rather buy than build their way to expansion due to a host of factors impeding large projects. Trump declared an energy emergency on his first day in office and has issued directives to support exports, reform permitting and roll back environmental standards. Since his November election, a number of large-scale projects have been greenlit, including a liquefied natural gas terminal and a handful of pipelines. But higher costs from a global trade war sparked by U.S. tariffs, labor shortages, low oil prices, and the risk of legal snags mean many companies are generally reluctant to commit to bold new construction. Instead, operators see mergers and acquisitions as a more efficient way to grow. In the first quarter of this year, 15 U.S. midstream deals were struck, the highest quarterly number since the final three months of 2021, according to energy tech company Enverus. "We have spent a lot of time thinking about the buy versus build question and, at this time, we're seeing more opportunities to buy assets," said Angelo Acconcia, a partner at ArcLight Capital Partners, which invests in energy infrastructure. Acconcia said factors including tariffs and high demand for supplies and labor made it challenging to calculate the economics of building a project. One of the most prevalent trends in dealmaking so far in 2025 has been pipeline companies buying back stakes in joint ventures, previously sold to help fund the initial development costs of prior-year builds. Targa Resources TRGP.N said in February it would acquire preferred equity in its Targa Badlands pipeline system from Blackstone for $1.8 billion, while MPLX said in the same month it would buy the 55% interest in the BANGL natural gas pipeline previously owned by WhiteWater Midstream and Diamondback Energy for $715 million. Private equity owners of energy infrastructure are keen sellers, having spent recent years developing systems that are now online. Northwind Midstream, a New Mexico-focused pipeline operator, is currently being marketed for sale by Five Point Infrastructure, for example.

Biden-Era LNG Study Complete, Opening Door to Next Wave of Natural Gas Export Approvals -The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is set to begin issuing full LNG export authorizations after concluding that a study of the industry undertaken during the Biden administration justifies expanding natural gas exports. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. More than a year after DOE staff was ordered to review the environmental and economic impacts of U.S. LNG, the agency has reviewed public comment and finalized the study for the public record.In a response to public comments published earlier in the week, DOE reaffirmed that it would continue to review LNG export projects on an individual basis. However, it largely assumed sending more domestic natural gas into the global marketplace is in the public interest.

Commonwealth LNG Clears Final Environmental Review, Paving Way for Summer Authorization -Federal regulators have delivered a key analysis for the Commonwealth LNG project that could signal a busy summer of final authorization orders for FERC in the coming months. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff published a final supplemental environmental impact statement (SEIS) with data of potential nitrous dioxide (NO2) emissions from the proposed Louisiana export project (CP19-502). FERC staff wrote that they reached the same conclusions after further study as the first EIS issued in 2022.

3 Years Later, Freeport LNG Returns LNG Storage Tank to Service -- Marcellus Drilling News - -Freeport LNG’s export terminal with three liquefaction “trains” completely shut down (all three trains) in June 2022 after an explosion and fire (see Explosion Rocks Freeport LNG Export Plant – Offline for 3 Weeks). What was initially thought to be a three-week outage lasted for ten months. The plant finally returned online in March 2023 (see Freeport LNG Plant Back to Full Capacity Using 2.1 Bcf/d of NatGas). Since that time, one or more Freeport trains have been offline more times than we can count. Freeport announced yesterday that, finally, after three years, it has restored full operations to the last remaining component that was still offline since 2022—an LNG storage tank.

Freeport Back at Full Capacity Three Years After Explosion — Freeport LNG Development LP has returned its third LNG storage tank to service nearly three years after it was knocked out of service by a fire and explosion at the facility on the upper Texas coast. The tank will increase the facility’s storage capacity by 165,000 cubic meters after the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized its return. The incident occurred on June 8, 2022 near LNG transfer equipment and the storage area. The failure occurred because of the warming and expansion of LNG within piping and an improperly isolated pressure relief valve. The expansion increased pressure within the piping, which ruptured and released LNG, which caught fire, according to a third-party analysis.

How Will the Trade War Impact U.S. LNG Demand? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow. Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin, joins NGI's Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, to discuss how the trade war and other challenges could impact rapid U.S. LNG export growth.They explore supply, demand and price trends that could emerge as the Trump administration works to balance the U.S. trade deficit. They also discuss other challenges like the European Union’s methane emissions regulations and LNG production growth in the Middle East that could curb the appetite for North American LNG at a time when it’s growing at an unprecedented rate.Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI – which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing points across North America – works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.

US natgas prices at Waha hub in Texas fall into negative territory (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas prices for Monday in the Permian shale basin in West Texas turned negative as spring pipeline maintenance and other constraints trap gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. n Part of the reason for that output reduction was spring maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast. Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd. Traders have noted the Permian Highway reduction trapped some gas in the Permian basin, helping spot gas prices at the Waha Hub fall by over 260% from 94 cents per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Friday to a six-month low of minus $1.52 for Monday. That was the fourth time Waha prices averaged below zero in 2025 and compares with an average of $1.96 per mmBtu in 2025, 77 cents in 2024 and an average of $2.91 over the prior five years (2019-2023). Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023 and a record 49 times in 2024. Analysts have said negative prices were a sign the Permian region needs more gas pipes. There are some pipes under construction, including Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express expansion, the WPC joint venture's Blackcomb and Energy Transfer's Hugh Brinson, but they are not expected to enter service until 2026. The Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico is the nation's biggest and fastest-growing oil-producing shale basin. A lot of gas also comes out of the ground with that oil. Even though U.S. crude futures were down about 13% so far in 2025, energy firms have been willing to take some losses on gas because they can still make up for those losses with profits in selling oil. But with oil prices on track to decline for a third year in a row in 2025, some energy firms said they plan to reduce the amount of capital they will spend on new oil drilling this year.

US Natgas Futures Fall 7% to 3-Week Low on Rising Output, Spot Waha Prices Turn Negative - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a three-week low on Monday on a small increase in output over the last few days even though pipeline maintenance curtailed some gas flows from the Permian Basin in West Texas. That pipeline work in Texas trapped some gas in the Permian shale and caused spot prices at the Waha hub to turn negative for the fourth time this year. Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 22.1 cents, or 6.6%, to settle at $3.113 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since April 25. That put the front-month down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since late April. During those four days, gas prices fell about 15%. Analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in the coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year. Gas stockpiles were already around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April. The decline so far this month, however, was lower than expected on Friday. Part of the reason for output reductions was maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan’s 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast. Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd. Traders have noted the Permian Highway and other pipeline work trapped some gas in the Permian basin, helping spot gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas to drop from 94 cents per mmBtu for Friday to a negative $1.52 for Monday. That compares with an average of $1.83 over the prior seven days. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 99.0 bcfd this week to 94.6 bcfd in two weeks. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April. The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to reductions as a result of maintenance at Cameron LNG’s 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy’s 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief reductions at Freeport LNG’s 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. Gas was trading at around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 10% on Output Dip and Technical Buying (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures soared about 10% on May 20 on a decline in daily output, forecasts for more demand next week, long-term forecasts for a hotter-than-normal summer and what some analysts called a technical bounce. Gas prices fell about 7% and closed below the 200-day moving average on May 19, which some analysts said likely prompted some technical traders to start buying gas. "Sometimes technical traders have more power than the fundamental guys. There are times where there is not a lot of news and computers and algorithms can drive the prices up and down regardless of the fundamentals, and then ultimately the fundamentals start kicking in," Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 31.4 cents, or 10.1%, to settle at $3.427 per million British thermal units. On May 19, the contract closed at its lowest since April 25. That was the biggest daily gain for the front-month since early April when the contract also climbed a little over 10%. In the short-term, analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year. Gas stockpiles were already around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. But longer-term, the U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center projected temperatures would be above normal across the entire continental U.S. in June, July and August, with well above-normal heat expected in Utah and parts of surrounding states, southwest Texas and in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 Bcf/d in April. On a daily basis, output was on track to slide to a preliminary one-week low of 103.4 Bcf/d on May 20, down from 104.7 Bcf/d on May 19 and an average of 104.1 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Energy traders noted those output reductions were due in part to maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's 2.7-Bcf/d Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast. Traders have noted the Permian Highway and other pipeline work trapped some gas in the Permian Basin, causing spot gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas to drop to a negative $1.52 for May 19. Waha prices, however, rose to a positive 46 cents for May 20. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 98.8 Bcf/d this week to 95.1 Bcf/d next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on May 19.

Natural Gas News: Bearish Sentiment Builds on Forecasted 119 Bcf Storage Injection - U.S. natural gas futures slipped Thursday morning, with traders reacting to downside momentum following Wednesday’s rejection at the key $3.438 pivot. Market participants are bracing for another larger-than-normal storage build in the weekly EIA report, reinforcing a bearish near-term bias. Can the 200-Day Moving Average Hold Under Pressure? Futures are edging lower with prices threatening the 200-day moving average at $3.170. A decisive break below this level would signal growing seller conviction. However, stronger support lies below at $3.098 and $3.035, both of which have recently attracted aggressive dip-buying. To push through this zone, bears will likely need a significant volume surge—something that has yet to materialize. If the downside holds, the rebound path is clearly mapped. A break above $3.438 would put the 50-day moving average at $3.700 in play, with further resistance at $3.733. Breaching that level could open the door for a run toward $4.062, making $3.438 the key battleground for both sides in the coming sessions. Thursday’s EIA report is widely expected to show a build of +119 Bcf for the week ending May 16, significantly above the five-year average of +87 Bcf. If confirmed, this would follow last week’s +110 Bcf injection, further weighing on sentiment. Inventory levels now sit 2.6% above their five-year average, despite being 14.6% lower year-on-year. These data continue to suggest ample supply heading into summer. The bearish tone isn’t limited to U.S. markets. European gas storage was at 45% capacity as of May 18, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 55%, further reinforcing global supply adequacy even as the continent prepares for peak summer demand. Short-term demand remains muted. Forecasts for May 21–27 point to a mild pattern across the Midwest and East, with highs in the 50s to 70s and even 40s in some areas. The West and South remain hotter, but not enough to drive significant national demand. Looking forward, some models suggest a warming trend by early June, but confidence in that outlook remains limited given the timeframe. Unless bulls can retake the $3.438 pivot, the path of least resistance remains lower. Elevated storage builds and mild weather imply limited upside for now. A break below $3.035 would further cement short-term bearish momentum. Traders should monitor weather shifts and EIA surprises for potential catalysts, but current conditions favor sellers.

Interior will oversee oil decommissioning in marine sanctuary - The Trump administration is giving an offshore regulatory agency new authority over decommissioning oil and gas sites in a recently created marine sanctuary off California’s central coast.The Interior Department said Thursday that its Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement is now the lead federal agency to oversee retiring oil and gas platforms in the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary. The 4,543-square-mile swath of the Pacific Ocean became protected near the end of the Biden administration. Oil and gas decommissioning oversight for the area had been under the Department of Commerce.“This is a strong example of interagency collaboration to streamline permitting and promote responsible energy development while honoring our commitment to environmental protection,” said Interior’s acting Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management, Adam Suess, in a statement. “By leveraging BSEE’s regulatory expertise, we can ensure that offshore decommissioning activities within the sanctuary are conducted safely and efficiently.” BSEE is charged with leading safety and environmental protection related to offshore energy activities on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which is also part of Interior, manages the development of resources in that offshore region.

Gray Oak Expansion Helping to Ease Permian-to-Corpus Crude Oil Congestion -The pipelines carrying crude oil from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Corpus Christi area have been as jammed as an urban highway on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. The Gray Oak Pipeline, the largest from the Permian to Corpus, has just completed the 80-Mb/d first phase of a planned two-phase expansion that will add a total of 120 Mb/d of capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what this project means for pipeline congestion and crude exports out of Corpus and nearby Ingleside. As we’ve frequently discussed in the RBN blogosphere, the Permian Basin has experienced rapid growth in crude oil production and now accounts for 49% of all U.S. output. As shown in Figure 1 below, there are four large pipelines that transport crude oil from the Permian to the Corpus Christi area — Cactus I (blue line), Cactus II (teal line), EPIC Crude (yellow line) and Gray Oak (green line) — which (as of April) collectively provide 2.64 MMb/d of capacity. Gray Oak is an 850-mile crude oil pipeline system that originates from multiple points in West Texas (see Figure 2 below). The pipeline started up with a capacity of 900 Mb/d shortly before crude oil demand cratered as the pandemic hit in 2020. In response to COVID, Permian producers shut in a significant amount of production, but output from the basin quickly rebounded and it didn’t take long for Gray Oak to add volumes — its flows ramped up throughout 2020. Note that it is common for new pipelines to gain volumes from old pipelines as take-or-pay commitments are typical on new pipelines — meaning you pay for the capacity regardless of whether you use it. As discussed in our weekly Crude Oil Permian report, Gray Oak has long operated at high utilization rates, which means nearly every available barrel of capacity is spoken for on what is now a 980-Mb/d pipeline. Its recently completed 80-Mb/d expansion originates at Crane, TX, and flows to Corpus Christi and Ingleside, where it supports crude exports at Enbridge’s Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC; pink square in Figure 2). According to the recently published quarterly edition of our Crude Voyager report, EIEC accounted for just over 30% of total Gulf Coast crude oil exports in Q1 2025 — the highest share among all terminals. It also set daily and quarterly export records. The pipeline is designed to receive crude oil from various areas in West and South Texas before it is sent to the Gulf Coast. It has receipt points in both the Permian’s Midland Basin (Crane; easternmost black dot in the upper-left corner of Figure 2 above) and Delaware Basin (Marathon Petroleum’s Conan Terminal, near the Texas-New Mexico line and the crude hubs in Wink and the rarely used Orla TX; blue tank icon and the westernmost and middle black dots in the upper left of the map, respectively). Gray Oak, like EPIC Crude, also picks up some volumes in the Eagle Ford production region in South Texas at Three Rivers (black dot at lower right within the Eagle Ford).Gray Oak’s owners set their sights on a 200-Mb/d expansion last year but ultimately revised that down to 120 Mb/d. While smaller than originally planned, it's the only Permian crude pipeline to get the green light for an expansion so far. The first phase of the project was wrapped up in April, boosting the system’s capacity by 80 Mb/d. Phase 2 is scheduled to come online in April 2026, adding another 40 Mb/d and pushing total capacity to 1.02 MMb/d. It’s our understanding that the full expansion capacity is contracted for, meaning there are commitments behind it. It’s possible that Gray Oak is using drag-reducing agents for its expansion project — rather than new construction — which would help to explain the speed of the project’s completion. Enbridge hasn’t confirmed its strategy for Gray Oak, but during the company’s March 1 Investor Day executives said they use drag-reducing agents to increase pipeline volumes, which involves injecting chemicals to lower the friction of flowing oil and takes much less time than traditional construction — see our Kind of a Drag blog series for more. The expansion is important because, according to the most recent data from the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), Gray Oak has been recently operating at 104% of its nameplate capacity, including receipts from the Permian (teal area in Figure 3 below) and Eagle Ford (dark-teal area), which has helped push Corpus-bound pipes from the Permian to capacity (dotted black line). Permian-to-Corpus Christi pipes, inclusive of Eagle Ford receipts, have averaged 2.55 MMb/d, or 99% utilization, since February 2023.

Oil states mull crackdown on idle wells - Three of the country’s largest fossil-fuel-producing states are considering new rules to prevent the abandonment of oil and gas wells.Texas and Oklahoma’s legislatures for the first time could create restrictions on how long wells can be inactive or idled before operators must plug them. In New Mexico, the state’s oil and gas regulator is proposing new rules that would require operators to pay more in insurance to cover the cost of plugging abandoned wells.The new rules are part of broader efforts to tackle the tens of thousands of old oil and gas wells that are left unplugged and without an owner that can properly seal them shut. Wells left inactive for years can contaminate ground and surface water and spew planet-warming methane out of their wellheads.Once an oil and gas well is orphaned, any contamination and leftover equipment becomes a government — and taxpayer — liability.

US House passes ‘big, beautiful’ bill, which ramps up oil and gas leasing -- The US House on Thursday narrowly passed the “One Big Beautiful Act”, a sweeping legislative package from Republicans that, among many other things, aims to ramp up oil and gas lease sales in the US while curbing a wide swath of clean energy tax credits. Named after US President Donald Trump’s promise of “one big, beautiful bill” to push his domestic legislative agenda, the package passed by a single vote, 215-214. All 215 votes in favour were from Republicans, though two GOP representatives voted against the bill, one voted “present”, and two others did not vote. All 212 House Democrats were unanimous in their opposition to the bill. The sprawling act is an amalgamation of bills from 11 House committees, including Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, and Natural Resources, to name a few. Though much of the legislation touches energy, it also revamps military funding, student loans, Medicaid and immigration, among other issues. It will head to the Senate for another round of contentious voting. US stock markets were all up less than 1% in Thursday morning trading following the bill’s House passage. In addition, the Dow Jones US Oil and Gas Index and the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index were each down less than 1%. Chevron's Anchor platform in the US Gulf. Related Trump issues new analysis for endangered species protections in US Gulf More leasing ahead Many of the bill’s energy directives open up oil and gas leasing activity through the Department of the Interior (DoI), which oversees leasing in federal waters and on federal lands. Perhaps the biggest winners after the bill’s House passage are offshore operators in the US Gulf. The package requires at least 30 lease sales in the US Gulf over the next 15 years, with the first to be held 15 August. The lease sales would rotate between August and March through 2040. The 30 leases sales would be a significant change from President Joe Biden’s tenure, when his administration passed an offshore leasing programme that featured only three lease sales in five years. Under the legislation, each US Gulf lease sale would have to offer at least 80 million acres, assuming that much unleased acreage is available. The bill also modifies the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (GOMESA), which outlines how offshore oil and gas revenue is distributed to Gulf Coast states. It would raise the distribution cap from $500 million to $650 million from 2026 to 2034 before lowering the cap back to $500 million The act also directs DoI to “immediately resume” quarterly onshore lease sales in a another policy reversal from Biden, who curbed oil and gas drilling shortly after taking office in 2021. The legislation also transforms Alaska oil and gas activity by ordering DoI to hold at four lease sales in the state’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge while reviving oil and gas leases for the region that were cancelled by the Biden administration.It also orders DoI to resume the oil and gas programme in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) and requires at least six lease sales in the next decade in Alaska’s Cook Inlet, with the first required by March 2026.DoI Secretary Doug Burgum is likely to champion the bill’s directives. His agency is already working on a revamped offshore oil and gas programme that aims to add more lease sales to the current schedule.While the bill sets a $1 million fee for any gas company that applies with the Department of Energy (DoE) to either import or export liquefied natural gas, it also lets those applicants pay a $10 million fee to expedite their federal regulatory reviews. In addition, the bill sends $1.32 billion to the DoE to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and repeals a provision that forced the agency to draw down specific amounts of crude oil from the SPR during 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, renewable and clean energy took a massive hit from the bill, which rolls back tax credits for solar and wind manufacturing along with clean hydrogen production, zero-emission nuclear power production and clean vehicles, among other measures. The bill also rescinds unallocated funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden-led bill from 2022 that unleashed a wave of clean energy subsidies. It also repeals funding for a methane emissions reduction programme under the Clean Air Act. However, the carbon capture tax credits that were increased through the IRA — known as 45Q credits — were left intact. Jeff Eshelman, chief executive of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), called the legislation “a win for American energy”. “IPAA is pleased that the legislation reinstates oil and natural gas lease sales for onshore and offshore federal lands and makes common sense reforms to the permitting and leasing process on federal lands,” Eshelman said in a statement. Meanwhile, the Sierra Club said the legislation would “kneecap important environmental protections” and allows oil and gas companies to “pay to pollute” through the expedited review payments. “This bill is a disaster for working Americans. It endangers our clean air and water, will devastate our growing economy and the manufacturing jobs that are powering it, and opens up our precious lands and waters to even more reckless oil and gas drilling — all to reward Trump and Republicans’ billionaire buddies and corporate polluter pals,” Sierra Club legislative director Melinda Pierce said in a statement.

Monumental test awaits Trump’s drilling plans - — Cane Creek units 26-2 and 26-3 might be on the most scenic oil and gas well pad in the country. Red rock formations tower behind a pumpjack, and Arches National Park is visible along the horizon. Canyonlands National Park is a 15-minute drive away, and visitors can see the massive Green River Canyon from Dead Horse Point just up the road. The well pad —which includes several storage tanks, compressors and pipes — sits in the Paradox Basin, one of Utah’s oil -and gas-producing regions. Crews close to some of the country’s most prized national parks are drilling for everything from heavy crude to lithium to potash, although the industrial sites in the area are few and far between compared to more prolific oil plays like northeastern Utah’s Uinta Basin or Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg Basin.Drilling equipment, fracking rigs and lithium wells could soon be a more common sight in Utah and other parts of the West. President Donald Trump has pledged to open more federal lands to oil, gas and mineral production — including land within current boundaries of national monuments and close to national parks. But the success of that push will depend on whether the U.S. can attract private investors to these sensitive sites as concerns about the economy and oil prices engulf the industry.Interior Secretary Doug Burgum in February signed a secretarial order that requires the department’s assistant secretaries to prioritize reducing barriers to the use of federal lands for energy development, as well as speed up the permitting process for drilling and offer more parcels of public land for oil and gas leasing.On April 23, Burgum said he would slash the time requirement for reviewing environmental impact statements on federal oil and gas leases from two years to 28 days as part of Trump’s announced “energy emergency.” Also last month, Burgum said at an economic summit that federal bureaucracy and policies have prevented taxpayers and states from realizing the full potential of public lands.“We have Western states that are being choked because they have so much public land, and there’s so much overreach by the federal government and overlap between federal agencies and state agencies, that we’re creating a suboptimal protection and suboptimal use of those public lands,” Burgum said.Whether oil and gas companies will take the Trump administration up on offers of more federal leases is a different question.“Who drills right next to a national park? Nobody likes that,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution. “No big oil company with name recognition is going to do that.”Oil and gas association leaders told POLITICO’s E&E News that operators are also reluctant to bid on federal oil and gas leases or undertake new drilling projects in general as the price of crude has declined after Trump on April 2 announced sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. He later issued a 90-day pause on many of the new tariffs.Companies are especially reluctant to lease federal lands near national monuments and parks, fearing bad publicity, legal challenges from environmental groups and a lack of infrastructure to get their product to market.

Produced water, crude oil spill reported near Rhame— On May 20, the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality (NDDEQ) was notified of a produced water and crude oil spill. According to NDDEQ, Denbury reported that the spill happened at a well site 12 miles southeast of Rhame in Bowman County. It was estimated that 195 barrels of produced water and four barrels of crude oil were spilled, affecting the surrounding rangeland. Personnel from NDDEQ are on site to monitor the investigation and remediation efforts.

Sable restarts oil production at unit responsible for Refugio Oil Spill - According to Sable, oil has been flowing from Platform Harmony to Las Flores Canyon at 6,000 barrels a day since May 15. Seven of the eight pipelines in the Las Flores system have passed hydrotests, with one more test needed before the system can fully restart. Alex Katz is with the Environmental Defense Center, one of several groups against reopening the pipeline that polluted the coast in 2015. “The fact that they're announcing that they're restarting this system on the 10th anniversary of a spill that was so devastating just shows how little regard they have for the environment and for people in California,” Katz said. Katz said environmental groups are concerned restarting the system could lead to another spill. But Sable said it has added new safety measures– including 27 emergency shutoff devices and round-the-clock leak detection. In recent months, the California Coastal Commission cited Sable for unpermitted work on the unit, but the company still received approvals to restart from the State Fire Marshal and Santa Barbara County. The Environmental Defense Center is currently suing the Fire Marshal, in an ongoing lawsuit arguing that they improperly allowed Sable to operate the pipeline without corrosion protection– the same issue that reportedly caused the Refugio oil spill.

Alaska drilling, mining could see a megabill comeback - House Republicans sacked two prominent Alaska drilling and mining provisions from their tax, energy and national security megabill just hours before it cleared the chamber, but a top GOP lawmakers has hopes the Senate will add them back in.The two provisions cut from H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” would have facilitated approval of the Ambler mining access road and ramped up drilling in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve. They are long-sought priorities for Republicans, and their fate on the cutting room floor came as a surprise.House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), however, said the provisions were removed over procedural concerns relating to the budget reconciliation process.“These provisions were addressed in the manager’s amendment out of an abundance of caution as part of the nuanced reconciliation process,” Westerman said in an email.

Canadian Oil Exports Pivot Toward China, Undermining U.S. Energy Influence (Reuters) — If there is a law of unintended consequences, then a good example is how commodity markets are adjusting to both the realities and the perceived threats of the tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's trade and tariff measures have forced commodity producers, traders and buyers to re-think long-established relationships, adapt to emerging realities and try to predict what may happen. What is becoming clear is that commodity markets are adjusting not only to actual measures imposed by the Trump administration, but also to the possibility of future actions, which has created a desire to limit exposure to the United States. An example of this is seaborne exports of crude oil from Canada, which have shifted away from the United States and towards China, even though Trump backed away from his initial plan to impose a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada. For the first time ever, Canada exported more seaborne crude to China in April than it did to the United States, showing how market dynamics can move amid the uncertainty created by Trump's trade war. Canada's seaborne exports of crude to China were 299,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, up from 277,000 bpd in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. Seaborne shipments to the United States were 286,000 bpd in April, roughly in line with March's 283,000 bpd but down from the record of 431,000 bpd in September last year. The discount of Western Canadian Select crude to U.S. West Texas Intermediate has narrowed to the lowest in about 4-1/2 years at just over $9 a barrel, dropping from levels closer to $30 as recently as November. This reflects another dynamic that Trump probably didn't expect, as his sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which like Canadian crude is heavy, reduced the amount of this grade available to U.S. refiners. This means that Canadian crude is more in demand in the United States, and U.S. refiners are having to pay more. The rising price for Canadian crude brings into question the view that Canada was far more dependent on the United States than vice versa. It now seems that the United States is actually quite dependent on Canadian crude, especially if Trump has limited the suitable alternatives with sanctions.The advantage also seems to be with Canada when it comes to seaborne exports. Canada has lifted its seaborne crude exports since the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion came on line in May last year, which increased its capacity to 890,000 bpd. It has been expected that the bulk of this oil would be shipped to refiners on the U.S. West Coast, and initially that is how it played out. But once Trump returned to the White House in late January and upped both his rhetoric and actions against his northern neighbor and erstwhile close ally, Canada's seaborne oil flows have shifted. Even though Trump backed down on imposing any tariff on energy imports from Canada, the damage has largely been done, with Canadian oil producers keen to develop alternative markets. Hence the interest in China, the world's biggest oil importer, which has also been keen to increase the diversity of its suppliers in a bid to lessen its dependence on oil from the OPEC+ group of exporters. China has also effectively halted importing crude from the United States amid the escalation in tariffs imposed by Washington and Beijing since Trump's return. While those tariffs have been lowered for a 90-day period to allow for talks, China is still imposing a 10% levy on U.S. oil imports, which is high enough to render U.S. oil uncompetitive in China. No U.S. crude is scheduled to arrive in China in May and June, according to Kpler, while as recently as June last year China imported 417,000 bpd from the United States.

Enbridge ‘Ready To Rock’ on Pipeline Projects in Canada as Prime Minister Promises to ‘Build, Baby, Build’ - North American midstream company Enbridge Inc. expects Canada to be more open to building pipeline infrastructure after newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to make the country an “energy superpower.” Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Canada Border Tracker displaying a map and major natural gas hubs with prices. Depicts flow data key for market analyses. Ebel joined other Canadian natural gas and oil businesses leaders in urging the nation’s politicians in March to declare an “energy emergency” to shore up the nation’s “economic sovereignty.” They said Canada needs to build infrastructure links to other markets in response to President Trump’s economic threats. Carney, elected in April, said “build, baby, build” in his victory speech, echoing President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” campaign slogan. Carney promised to build an “independent future” for the country.

Trump pushes UK to embrace drilling, dump windmills -- President Trump on Friday criticized the United Kingdom’s energy policy, pushing the British government to do away with “costly and unsightly” windmills and drill for more oil in the North Sea.“Our negotiated deal with the United Kingdom is working out well for all. I strongly recommend to them, however, that in order to get their Energy Costs down, they stop with the costly and unsightly windmills, and incentivize modernized drilling in the North Sea, where large amounts of oil lay waiting to be taken,” Trump said on Truth Social. “A century of drilling left, with Aberdeen as the hub. The old fashioned tax system disincentivizes drilling, rather than the opposite. U.K.’s Energy Costs would go WAY DOWN, and fast!” the president said. Trump returned to the Oval Office with plans to “drill, baby, drill” and had said on the campaign trail that he aimed to “have a policy where no windmills are being built.” He’s since made moves to roll back Biden-era renewable energy policies and hasten fossil fuel development — and his efforts to hold up wind energy development have drawn legal challenges. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, on the other hand, has championed renewable energy and a net-zero agenda. The government has planned to double onshore wind and quadruple offshore wind by 2030, according to WindEurope, in pursuit of low-carbon goals.Trump’s call for Britain to embrace drilling comes after the U.S. and U.K. signed a trade deal earlier this month, the first country-specific agreement since the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff hikes in early April.The deal, which had been in the works for some time, included billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports.

European Natural Gas Prices Retreat Despite Ongoing Maintenance in Norway — The Offtake -A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• $12.021/MMBtu: European gas traders appeared to be shrugging off summer maintenance in Norway’s gas fields as prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices retreated Thursday. Pipeline exports from Norway had dropped by around 2.5 Bcf/d since Tuesday as maintenance began, landing at 5.6 Bcf/d Thursday, according to NGI calculations. TTF edged down Thursday to roughly 20 cents day/day to $12.021/MMBtu.
• 70 Bcf: France remained the No. 1 destination for U.S. LNG volumes in March, according to the latest U.S. Department of Energy report. France received 15 Bcf of U.S. natural gas during the month, equivalent to 15% of all Gulf Coast exports in March. France is an LNG import hub with seven operating terminals that help transport gas volumes through Central and Eastern Europe.
• 2.4%: Global LNG trade grew to 411.24 million tons (Mt) in 2024, a 2.4% increase year/year, according to the latest market review from the International Gas Union (IGU). Global LNG trade growth has been decreasing since 2023 amid market volatility and limited export capacity additions. In 2024, trade increases were driven by the startup of Plaquemines LNG in the United States, and the addition of Mexico and Congo as exporters.
• 21.22 Mt: Europe’s LNG imports in 2024 fell to levels last seen before the invasion of Ukraine, according to IGU. Import volumes decreased by 21.22 Mt to 100.07 Mt, the lowest point since 2021. The UK contributed to the largest reduction in imports, followed by the major European LNG hubs of France, the Netherlands and Spain.

Positive Signs for U.S. LNG Demand as Prospect of Russian Gas Returning to Europe Dims The prospect of Russian natural gas returning in any meaningful way to Europe continues to look remote in another bullish sign for U.S. LNG demand. Bar graph showing U.S. LNG exports to different countries showing historical differences. The Trump administration has pursued an end to the war in Ukraine, raising the possibility that Russian gas exports to Europe could somehow increase as part of any potential peace deal. Those efforts, however, have fallen flat. Russia and Ukraine met for direct talks last week for the first time since 2022, but made no progress. President Trump’s conversations this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also came up short and yielded no agreement on a ceasefire.

Asian Spot Buying Rebounds, Tightening Global Natural Gas Market and Lifting Prices — European natural gas prices charged higher on Monday, continuing three straight weeks of gains as colder weather is forecast in the coming days, Asian spot buying picks up and the market closely watches for any signs of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot XXXX daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. \ The July Title Transfer Facility contract finished at $11.62/MMBtu on Monday, up four cents from Friday’s close. Asian natural gas prices have also been steady at above $11 and gained 4% last week as more buyers waded into the market to replenish inventories as summer nears. Asian spot buying has been sluggish in recent weeks as the trade war has weighed on energy demand, which has provided limited competition for Europe as it works to rebuild storage inventories drained over the winter.

Aramco Wading Deeper into Global Natural Gas Market as Production, LNG Supply Grow - Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, continued to boost its natural gas production in the first quarter as it works to expand its presence in the global market. Aramco’s natural gas output jumped to 10.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter, up from 9.7 Bcf/d in the year-ago period. The company is working to boost natural gas production by more than 60% from 2021 levels by 2030.

‘Russia detains Greek oil tanker after it departs Estonian port - Russia has detained a Greek oil tanker sailing under the Liberian flag as it left the Estonian port of Sillamae on a previously agreed route through Russian waters, the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says. In a statement published on Sunday, the ministry added that the vessel, the Green Admire, was undertaking a navigational route established in a deal between Russia, Estonia and Finland. “Today’s incident shows that Russia continues to behave unpredictably,” Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said. “I have also informed our allies of the event,” he said, referring to other NATO members. Estonian Public Broadcasting (EPB), citing the Transport Administration, reported that the Greek tanker was carrying a cargo of shale oil destined for Rotterdam in the Netherlands. It added that such incidents had never occurred before. Vessels leaving Sillamae usually move through Russian waters to avoid Estonia’s shallows, which can be dangerous for larger tankers, the EPB said. Advertisement The incident took place after the Estonian navy on Thursday tried to stop an unflagged tanker that was said to be part of a Russian “shadow fleet” of vessels sailing through Estonian waters. Russia responded by sending a fighter jet to escort the tanker, violating Estonia’s airspace. The “shadow fleet” is meant to help Moscow maintain its crude oil exports to avoid Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine.

India’s oil imports from Russia surge to 10-month high on strong demand for light crude - India's imports of Russian crude oil are set to reach nearly 1.8 million barrels per day in May, the highest in 10 months, according to ship tracking data from Kpler, as domestic refiners ramp up purchases of lighter Russian grades like ESPO Blend. Strong demand from the world’s third-largest oil consumer is expected to continue into July, with Indian refiners reportedly ordering more than 10 cargoes of June-loading ESPO crude just last week, traders told Reuters. The surge in buying comes ahead of new EU and UK sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and associated financial entities, raising questions about future logistics and pricing. India’s appetite for Russian ESPO crude has also triggered a rebound in spot premiums for shipments delivered to China, the largest buyer of the Far East-exported grade from Russia’s Kozmino port. According to Jay Shah, senior oil analyst at Rystad Energy, shutdowns at crude distillation units at Indian refining majors like Reliance Industries and MRPL have increased the need for light crude feedstock at their fluid catalytic crackers, particularly due to favourable refining margins.

China's crude oil imports from Russia fall in April; imports from Malaysia surge (Reuters) - China's imports of crude oil from Russia fell 12.9% in April from a year earlier, coming in at 8.07 million metric tons or 1.96 million barrels per day, Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday. Russian supply to China also declined 5.8% on a monthly basis, down from 2.08 million bpd in March. Imports from Malaysia, the top trans-shipment hub for sanctioned Iranian oil, stood at 7.95 million tons in April, or 1.93 million bpd, down 6.3% from March, but up 96.9% year-on-year. China's total crude oil imports stood at 48.06 million tons in April, or 11.69 million bpd, lower from March but up 7.5% from a year earlier due to abundant deliveries of sanctioned shipments and as state refiners built stocks during maintenance shutdowns. Imports from Saudi Arabia, the third-largest supplier, were down 12.8% year-on-year in April, at 5.53 million tons or 1.35 million bpd. Customs recorded no imports from Iran and Venezuela in April. Below are the details of imports from key suppliers, volume in million metric tons.

Nigeria's Trans Niger oil pipeline bursts, spills crude, rights group says (Reuters) - Nigeria's Trans Niger Pipeline, a major oil artery transporting crude from onshore oilfields to the Bonny export terminal, burst and spilled oil into the local B-Dere community in Ogoniland, an environmental rights group said on Thursday. This is the second incident affecting the Trans Niger Pipeline in two months. In March, the pipeline was shut after a blast that caused a fire. Nnimmo Bassey, executive director of Health of Mother Earth Foundation, said the spill, which occurred on May 6, was yet to be stopped, adding that the slow response showed a lack of care for the people and was "unconscionable." "We are in a disaster zone and further disasters can erupt from even an accidental spark of fire," he said. "The fact that this spill that happened a week ago is yet to be stopped sends a very strong point to why the government should focus on cleaning up Ogoniland and not seek to open new oil wells. The old wells should be shut down, and decommissioned." Ogoniland, one of Africa's earliest crude oil producing areas, has been dealing with oil pollution for decades, but its profits have often flowed to the big oil companies and to Nigerian state coffers. Local residents have long complained of toxic waste and little compensation. Nigerian oil consortium Renaissance Group, which now owns Shell's former onshore subsidiary that operates the pipeline, confirmed the explosion and said a team of investigators has been dispatched to determine the cause of the spill. The Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP), with a capacity of around 450,000 barrels per day, is one of two conduits that export Bonny Light crude from Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer. It was not immediately clear whether the TNP was shut. TNP did not immediately provide a statement when asked for comment. A prolonged outage could, however, force its operators to declare force majeure on Bonny Light exports. Pipeline sabotage and crude theft are some of the major reasons that forced oil majors like Shell, Exxon Mobil, Total and Eni to sell their onshore and shallow-water fields in Nigeria to concentrate on deep-water operations./p>

Nigeria's Renaissance reports oil spill from illegal pipeline connection (Reuters) - Nigeria's Renaissance Africa Energy Co. Ltd has confirmed an illegal connection on its Okordia-Rumuekpe pipeline at Oshika community in Nigeria's coastal Rivers state caused a spill, the independent oil producer said on Monday. The company was immediately isolating the pipeline and stopping production to minimize potential environmental impact, a spokesperson said in a statement. It has informed government regulators and is coordinating a mandatory joint investigation. This probe, involving government and local community representatives, will determine the cause and impact of the incident, the company said. Monday's oil spill marks the second incident this month on the Okordia-Rumuekpe pipeline and the third across Renaissance's operations. Last Friday, the company, which now owns former Shell Nigeria onshore assets, halted production on a line feeding the Trans Niger oil pipeline, a crucial artery transporting crude from onshore fields to the Bonny export terminal, following an operational incident.

Oil spill forces Renaissance to halt production, investigate cause -Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited has confirmed an illegal connection on its Okordia-Rumuekpe pipeline at Oshika community in Rivers State, causing an oil spill. According to the indigenous oil producer on Monday, the company was immediately isolating the pipeline and stopping production to minimise potential environmental impact. In a statement released by the company, it disclosed it has informed government regulators and is coordinating a mandatory joint investigation. “This probe, involving the government and local community representatives, will determine the cause and impact of the incident”, the company said. According to a Reuters report, Monday’s oil spill marks the second incident this month on the Okordia-Rumuekpe pipeline and the third across Renaissance’s operations. Last Friday, the company, which now owns former Shell Nigeria onshore assets, halted production on a line feeding the Trans Niger oil pipeline, a crucial artery transporting crude from onshore fields to the Bonny export terminal, following an operational incident. There are concerns that the repeated attacks on Renaissance pipelines may impact oil output negatively.

Petrobras Plans Return to Nigeria’s Oil Sector with Focus on Deepwater Exploration “Latest Naira Dollar Rate News – – Brazil’s state-controlled oil giant, Petrobras, is set to re-enter Nigeria’s oil industry, reversing its 2020 divestment move, with a fresh focus on acquiring frontier deepwater acreage. This development signals a renewed commitment by the company to expand its international portfolio and deepen ties with Nigeria’s energy sector. The announcement came during an inter-ministerial review meeting at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, as Nigeria prepares for the second Nigeria–Brazil Strategic Dialogue Mechanism (SDM) session scheduled for June 2025. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Shettima credited the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms for revitalising Petrobras’ interest in Nigeria. He said, “As the economic reforms take root, Petrobras, which previously wound down its operations at the Agbami Field, is now actively engaging with Nigerian authorities to enhance bilateral cooperation.” Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar, who attended the meeting, confirmed Petrobras’ eagerness to acquire new deepwater acreage. “Petrobras is no longer active in Nigeria, but they are very keen on returning. They want frontier acreage in deep waters,” he stated. Petrobras first entered Nigeria in 1998, securing indirect stakes in major offshore projects such as the Agbami Field (8% stake), and the Akpo and Egina Fields (16% stake), which are operated by Chevron and TotalEnergies respectively. These assets collectively produced hundreds of thousands of barrels per day at their peak. However, in 2020, Petrobras exited Nigeria by selling its 50% stake in Petrobras Oil & Gas B.V. (POGBV), its Nigerian joint venture, as part of a global strategy to streamline operations and prioritise domestic investments. Now, the company’s renewed interest aligns with Nigeria’s broader aim to deepen economic cooperation with Brazil and attract investments into its upstream oil sector. This move also follows Petrobras’ expressed intent earlier this year to acquire stakes in African oil assets previously held by global majors including ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. Vice President Shettima emphasised that the upcoming Nigeria–Brazil SDM will provide a platform to formalise sector-specific Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and boost investment flows between the two countries. The renewed partnership underscores Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to strengthen energy sector reforms, improve investor confidence, and increase oil production capacity through frontier deepwater exploration.

Guyana Passes Bill to Hold Offshore Operators Responsible for Oil Spills -Guyana’s National Assembly on Friday passed a major piece of environmental legislation, making companies and offshore operators responsible for damages arising from oil spills. With offshore oil production expanding in Guyanese waters, the bill hopes to create national environmental safeguards to defend against the effects of oil pollution. President Irfaan Ali is expected to sign the bill into law soon. “Guyana, as a major oil-producing nation, must establish a clear authority for oversight, aligning with best practices and ensuring all operators bear full responsibility for environmental protection,” said Mark Phillips, Guyana’s Prime Minister. Some of the notable provisions of the bill include mandatory financial assurance by companies engaged in oil exploration and production. This financial guarantee will cover potential oil spills, ensuring that funds are promptly available for clean-up efforts. There will be penalties for non-compliance, including suspension of licenses. The legislation designates the Civil Defense Commission (CDC) as the national authority responsible for coordinating response efforts and mitigating the impact of any spill. CDC will also oversee routine inspections and audits to identify and fix potential risks. According to the finance ministry, Guyana’s oil sector expanded 58 percent in 2024. This growth saw Guyana become the fifth largest crude exporter in Latin America after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Oil production in Guyana’s first offshore block is controlled by an Exxon Mobil-led consortium. The group produced an average of 616,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year from three operational FPSOs in the massive Stabroek block. This output is set to rise to around 940,000 bpd later this year with a fourth FPSO, which was built by SBM Offshore and arrived in Guyanese waters last month. The FPSO, One Guyana, has a capacity of 250,000 bpd. The backers of the oil spill legislation in parliament argued that the meteoric rise of Guyana’s oil sector ought to be balanced with the tightening of environmental protection laws.

Kazakhstan Defies OPEC+ Once Again --Kazakhstan’s oil production rose 2% in May, defying yet another OPEC+ quota and testing the limits of Saudi Arabia’s patience with overproducers. According to an industry source cited by Reuters, the country pumped an average of 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the first 19 days of May—well above its OPEC+ target of 1.486 million bpd. The increase comes after Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said earlier this month that there would be no cut to its crude and condensate levels—a cut which would be necessary to comply with its OPEC+ obligations. But the ministry insists production will not rise further this year, citing that the giant Tengiz field, operated by Chevron and ExxonMobil, has now hit its planned output level. This isn’t Kazakhstan’s first rodeo when it comes to overproducing. In March, the country hit a record 2.17 million bpd of combined crude and condensate output—much of it thanks to Chevron’s 260,000-bpd expansion at Tengiz. April output dropped slightly but still breached the quota. And now May’s rise adds fuel to the fire just as OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia have begun loosening their own taps, partly to punish noncompliant producers with lower prices.Kazakhstan has promised to “compensate” by shaving 1.3 million barrels from cumulative output by 2026. But with Western oil majors firmly in control of Kazakhstan’s biggest fields, that promise is more theoretical than enforceable. Chevron’s CEO has flatly stated the company does not engage in OPEC+ coordination.Meanwhile, higher volumes haven’t translated to higher revenues. With oil prices hovering near multi-year lows, Kazakhstan’s National Oil Fund revenues are down 43% year-on-year, and analysts warn more withdrawals may be needed this fall to plug budget gaps.Kazakhstan is pumping hard, promising later, and betting that nobody really wants to be the one to pull the plug on Tengiz.

China Looks To Tighten Its Grip On This Key Middle Eastern Oil Hub - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) holds much greater geopolitical significance to both China and the U.S. than might be inferred from either its size or its current crude oil production of just under 3 million barrels per day (bpd). This is why any major new deals signed with it by either side are so thoroughly scrutinised by the other, and why both continue to leverage whatever economic means they can to attempt to increase their influence across the collection of emirates. The very recent five-year sales and purchase agreement signed between China’s state-owned oil and gas company Zhenhua Oil and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) for around 800,000 metric tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting in 2026 is the latest deal to catch the U.S.’s attention, a senior Washington-based legal source who works closely with the Office of Foreign Assets Control told OilPrice.com last week. “Chinese LNG deals in the Middle East are always of interest to us, and so is whatever Zhenhua Oil is up to in the region,” he said. It is the UAE’s geographical position next to Saudi Arabia and Oman with coastlines in both the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that is one reason for its oversized geopolitical importance. This makes it an ideal energy hub between the West and the East, supported further by its plethora of ports and storage facilities spread across the seven constituent emirates of Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm Al Quwain. Fujairah is particularly well-positioned to offer alternative oil transit options that might come from supply disruptions from Iran and its regional proxies, especially the Houthis. This is due to its location both outside the Persian Gulf and a healthy 160 kilometres from the politically ultra-sensitive Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30% of the world’s oil has historically transited. This is a key reason why China made the UAE a focus of the Middle Eastern section of its multi-generational power-grab project, the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), back when it was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping. Through its ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Beijing exercises enormous influence over what happens in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz and wants to keep it that way. Through other similar deals in the region, China also has a hold over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which crude oil is shipped upwards through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal before moving into the Mediterranean and then westwards. In energy terms, UAE also offers rare LNG capabilities in the region, with its Das Island liquefaction and export terminal and the ongoing expansion of its LNG capacity through the Ruwais LNG project. In the U.S.’s eyes, China’s recent history in the LNG sector is most notably linked to its almost supernaturally prescient flurry of deal-making in the 12 months that preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In that case, Beijing’s attention was focused on Qatar, as analysed in full in my latest book. After that, LNG became the de factoemergency energy supply of the world, as it does not require the costly and time-consuming infrastructure build-out needed to move gas or oil through pipelines and can simply be bought fast in the spot market and shipped quickly to wherever it is needed. Following a long period of frank discussions between the team of then-U.S. President Joe Biden and Qatar’s leadership, China found the easy relationship that it had enjoyed with Doha in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine became more difficult. Nonetheless, Washington knows that in the event of another similar scenario – a larger country looking to ‘repatriate’ a smaller breakaway state, such as Taiwan – LNG will again be the go-to form of emergency energy. The presence of Zhenhua Oil in the deal -- its first long-term LNG supply contract -- also does not sit well with the U.S. Established in 2003, it is the oil exploration and production subsidiary of Chinese state-owned defence contractor Norinco and is active across several geopolitically ultra-sensitive countries including Myanmar, Egypt, and Iraq. It is apposite to note in this regard that oil and gas developments in a foreign country legally allow the companies undertaking those investments to safeguard them by whatever means they deem necessary, including by the stationing of tens, hundreds, or thousands of heavily-armed security personnel around the sites. Indeed, it was Zhenhua that on 2 January 2021 made a multi-billion-dollar deal with Iraq’s Federal Government in Baghdad to prepay for four million barrels every month for five years to be delivered to China by Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO). This was exactly the same strategy that Russia used to take over Iraq’s oil industry in its northern semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in 2017, as also detailed in my latest book. So extraordinarily obviously dangerous to U.S. interests in the Middle East and elsewhere was this deal seen by Washington at the time that it eventually succeeded in forcing the Iraqis to suspend the arrangement. Underlying all of this is that Washington’s recent history with the UAE has been chequered to say the least. In Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president, it had played an instrumental part in his vision for a new relationship architecture between the U.S. and the Middle East. This was to have been centred on a series of relationship normalisation deals signed between the Arab countries and Israel, with the U.S. as the key broker, and the UAE became the first major Arab state to sign such an agreement on 13 August 2020. The emirate was also to have played a key role in securing India as the regional counterpoint to China’s increasing dominance in the Asia Pacific region. Washington believed that a then-recent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley might mark a new push back strategy from India against China’s policy of seeking to increase its economic and military alliances through the BRI. The U.S. believed that this military assertiveness might also be echoed in India’s economic desire to finally make substantive progress on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy as an alternative to the BRI programme. Additionally propitious for Washington in this regard was that India’s rapid economic development was expected to drive a huge expansion in its demand for oil and gas. Indeed, at the time, the International Energy Agency predicted that India would make up the biggest share of energy demand growth at 25% over the next two decades. Peculiarly to many perhaps, the UA.E. had a uniquely close relationship with India in the field of energy, as also detailed in my latest book. That said, this positive-looking relationship between the U.S. and the UAE began to unravel after Trump left office. In the Christmas period of 2021, U.S. intelligence sources identified that China had been building a secret military facility in and around the big UAE port of Khalifa. Based on classified satellite imagery and human intelligence data, U.S. officials stated that China had been working for several months “to establish a military foothold in the UAE.” Just after Russia invaded Ukraine, the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan declined repeated requests from Washington to take a telephone call from then-President Joe Biden who wanted to ask the UAE for help in bringing energy prices down to help ease spiralling inflation in the West. And early February 2024 saw the UAE inform the U.S. that it would no longer allow its warplanes and drones based at the Al Dhafra air base to carry out strikes in Yemen and Iraq without notifying Emirati officials ahead of time. This prompted Washington to move its key fighting air assets to nearby Qatar. However, as it stands, it is extremely difficult to imagine that Sheikh al Nahyan would decline a telephone call from Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. still has a presence on the ground in the UAE that it can leverage, most recently in the form of a strategic partnership agreed between ExxonMobil and ADNOC to establish world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen facility. Additionally, Washington believes that further deals could be available to it in the UAE’s US$13 billion expansion programme of its gas operations over the next five years. “This is linked to a big push to boost its LNG capacity, and they’ve asked India to invest in a big new plant [in Ruwais] connected to this, so we might be able to work something there as well,” the Washington source concluded.

Oil slips amid China data; US-Iran talks in focus --Oil prices edged down on Monday as disappointing Chinese economic data and uncertainty surrounding United States-Iran nuclear negotiations raised concerns over global oil demand. By 3:20 pm AEST (5:20 am GMT), Brent crude futures slipped by $0.31, or 0.5%, to $65.10 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery also declined by $0.31, or 0.5%, to $61.66 per barrel. Both benchmarks posted gains of over 1% last week after the U.S. and China - two of the world's largest oil consumers - agreed to a 90-day truce in their trade dispute, during which both sides would significantly reduce tariffs. However, investor optimism was tempered by weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales, which rose just 5.1% in April from a year earlier, falling short of the 5.5% forecast. Industrial production, by contrast, slightly exceeded expectations with a 6.1% year-on-year increase, compared to projections of a 5.5% gain. Geopolitical tensions added another layer of uncertainty. Talks between the U.S. and Iran continued to hang in the balance, with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff stating Sunday that any potential agreement must prohibit Iran from enriching uranium. Tehran quickly criticised the demand, raising doubts about progress.

Oil Prices Drop as U.S. Loses Top AAA Rating - Oil prices fell on Monday after the last of the big three credit rating agencies, Moody’s, downgraded its rating on the United States from AAA to Aa1, reigniting concerns about America’s economy and bond markets. Moody’s Ratings on Friday downgradedthe long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the U.S. to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The one-notch downgrade “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” said Moody’s, which was the last agency to hold the top triple A rating on the U.S. As a result of the downgrade, market sentiment soured on Monday with a broad pullback from U.S. assets and riskier assets including crude oil.As of 7:27 a.m. EDT on Monday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was down by 1.23% at $ 61.75, while the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded 1.19% lower at $64.64 per barrel. “Moody's downgrade, adding renewed focus on US fiscal debt problems, and Scott Bessent’s warning that some tariffs may return to "Liberation Day" levels, have hurt risk sentiment in early Monday trading with USD and crude oil falling,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, commented on Monday. “Crude's rollercoaster ride to nowhere continues within an established wide range as traders' focus continues to alternate between ample supply and tariff-related demand worries, and the prospect of lower production from high-cost producers, US-Iran talks, and other geopolitical tensions,” Saxo Bank said in a note today. The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the expected Trump-Putin call later on Monday are also drawing the attention of the oil market early this week. The U.S.-Iran talks on a nuclear deal “will lead nowhere” if the United States continues to insist that Iran halt uranium enrichment, Majid TakhtRavanchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, said on Monday, after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff toldABC News this weekend that Iran’s enrichment activity is “one very, very clear red line” for the United States.

Oil settles up as signs of US-Iran impasse counter economic concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled marginally higher on Monday as signs of a breakdown in U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear program offset a Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Brent crude futures settled 13 cents higher at $65.54 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed up 20 cents at $62.69 a barrel. Both contracts rose more than 1% last week. Nuclear talks will lead nowhere if Washington insists that Tehran stop its uranium enrichment activity, Iranian state media quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi as saying on Monday. That remark dented hopes for an agreement, which would have paved the way for the easing of U.S. sanctions and allowed Iran to raise its oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. "That potential increase looks very unlikely now." The U.S. sovereign credit downgrade by Moody's raised questions about the economic health of the world's largest oil consuming nation. Pressure also came from news of slowing industrial output growth and retail sales in China, the top oil importer. Additional pressure came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith." Oil prices are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future as investors look for updates on the tariffs, U.S.-Iran negotiations, and talks to end the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin, after a call with Trump on Monday, said Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord and that efforts to end the war were on the right track. An end to the Ukraine war would pave the way for the lifting of some Western sanctions against Moscow's oil sales, potentially boosting global supply and adding more pressure to oil prices.

Global Oil Prices Remain Stable... Oil prices saw little change on Tuesday as traders weighed the potential collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks against strong physical demand in Asia for the first month of the year and cautious macroeconomic expectations regarding China. According to Bloomberg Economics, Brent crude futures fell by 6 cents to $65.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 1 cent to $62.70 per barrel. Prices were supported by expectations of short-term demand growth, fueled by solid refining margins in Asia. Refining margins in Singapore—a key regional benchmark—averaged over $6 per barrel for May, up from an April average of $4.40 per barrel, according to data from the London Stock Exchange. However, Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has weakened economic forecasts for the world’s largest energy consumer, contributing to a decline in oil prices.

Oil Market Reaction to Global Economic Concerns - On its last day as the spot contract, the June WTI contract posted an inside trading day as traders assessed the potential risks stemming from the Ukraine-Russia peace talks and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Following a call with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said Russia and Ukraine would resume direct talks but hinted that the U.S. may step back from its mediator role. Meanwhile, Iranian officials said its ability to enrich uranium was non-negotiable, casting doubts over the prospects of a deal that could lift sanctions and increase Iranian oil output. The crude market posted the day’s trading range by mid-morning as it traded to a high of $63.17 in overnight trading and a low of $62.19 early in the session with no breakthroughs seen in talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and the U.S.-Iran negotiations. The June WTI contract went off the board down 13 cents at $62.56, while the July WTI contract ended the session down 11 cents at $62.03. The July Brent contract settled down 16 cents at $65.38. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 12 points at $2.1289 and the RB market settling up 1.33 cents at $2.1521. Mehr news reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei voiced doubts over whether nuclear talks with the United States will lead to an agreement, as Iran reviews a proposal to hold a fifth round of negotiations. Separately, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran received and is reviewing a proposal for a fifth round of nuclear talks with the United States. An Iranian official told Reuters that the next round of talks could take place over the weekend in Rome, although this remains to be confirmed. On Tuesday, the European Union and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the United States to join them, a day after President Donald Trump spoke to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin without winning a promise for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The EU and London said their new measures would zero in on Moscow’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and financial companies that have helped it avoid the impact of other sanctions imposed over the war. The EIA said an expected stronger hurricane season than average raises the risk of weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry. It said the concentration of U.S. oil production and refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast means more than 1 million bpd of U.S. refining capacity, which is about 5% of daily U.S. petroleum consumption, is likely to be shut in anticipation of a major storm. Bloomberg News reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is set to extend Chevron’s deadline to halt its operations in Venezuela by another 60 days as the U.S. continues negotiations with President Nicolas Maduro’s government over the fate of U.S. detainees in the country.

Oil prices little changed on geopolitical uncertainty, weak China demand signals (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday due to uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while new government data delivered a cautious outlook for top crude-importer China's economy. Brent futures slid 16 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $65.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 13 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $62.56. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said U.S. demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium are "excessive and outrageous," voicing doubts whether talks on a new nuclear deal will succeed. A deal between Iran and the U.S. would allow Iran to raise oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions were eased, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group in 2024 behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to U.S. federal energy data. The European Union and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the U.S. to join them, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin without winning a promise for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ukraine wants the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies to reduce their price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $30 per barrel. The current G7 cap, imposed over Russia's war in Ukraine, is $60. "An immediate resolution of the Russia/Ukraine war does, however, look unlikely. So while it could lead to more oil from Russia into the market, it is out in time and uncertain as Russia is still bound by its obligation to OPEC+," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, a Nordic bank. An agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to export more oil to the world. Russia is a member of the OPEC+ group of countries, which includes OPEC and other producers. Russia was the world's second-biggest crude producer behind the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. federal energy data. CHINESE DATA At least seven Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Traders currently expect the U.S. central bank to deliver at least two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2025, with the first expected in September, according to data compiled by financial services firm LSEG. Central banks like the Fed use interest rates to keep price inflation in check. Lower interest rates can spur economic growth and demand for oil by reducing consumer borrowing costs. Data showing decelerating industrial output growth and retail sales in China piled more pressure on oil prices, with analysts expecting a slowdown in fuel demand from the world's top oil importer. The analysis, however, did not reflect a 90-day pause on tariffs between the U.S. and China, with Goldman Sachs pointing to a pickup in China trade flows late on Monday. In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil promised swift measures to boost investment amid global trade uncertainty.

Oil prices rise on fears of Israeli strike on Iran - Oil prices advanced more than 1% on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. The gains followed reports that Israel may be preparing to launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, a move that could escalate regional instability.By 3 pm AEST (5 am GMT) Brent crude futures for July delivery added $1.08 or 1.7% to $66.46 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July gained $1.10 or 1.8% to $63.13 per barrel. CNN reported on Tuesday that new U.S. intelligence indicated Israel was preparing for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Citing multiple American officials, the report noted that no final decision had yet been made by Israeli leadership.The prospect of military action has added a layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market, particularly given Iran's role as the third-largest oil producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). An Israeli strike could disrupt Iranian oil exports and risk retaliatory measures, including potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE passes through the Strait en route to global markets.ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: "Much of the focus has been on talks between the U.S. and Iran. The country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei expressed scepticism over discussions with the U.S. He said he doesn’t think negotiations will succeed and urged the Trump administration to stop talking nonsense. The U.S. and Iran have held several rounds of discussions this year over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, with the Trump administration intensifying sanctions on Iranian crude exports in a bid to pressure the regime. Despite the talks, statements from both the U.S. and Ayatollah Khamenei on Tuesday signalled that the two sides remain far from resolving their differences.On the data front, American Petroleum Institute (API) suggested a mixed picture for U.S. oil supply. Crude oil inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending 16 May, well ahead of an expected 1.85 million barrel draw.Traders now focus on official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), expected later Wednesday.

WTI Erases Israel-Iran Spike As Crude & Gasoline Stocks See Unexpected Build Oil prices are modestly higher ahead of this morning's official energy inventory and supply data, but have come dramatically back off the overnight spike highs driven by CNN headlines suggesting Israel is ready to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment sites.“Either the impact on the oil market in case of an attack is assumed to be low, or the probability for an attack is assumed to be low,” Wednesday’s gain “is not much when we are talking bombs in the Middle East major oil producing region.”Overnight also saw API report another sizable crude inventory build, while products drewdown (again)...API

• Crude +2.5mm
• Cushing -443k
• Gasoline -3.24mm
• Distillates -1.4mm

DOE:

• Crude +1.33mm
• Cushing -457k
• Gasoline +816k - biggest build since January
• Distillates +579k

A smaller than expected crude build was offset by an unexpected build in Gasoline stocks according to the official DOE data...Including a 843k barrel addition to SPR, total US crude stocks rose for the second week in a row... US Crude production was up very modestly last week - hovering just below record highs - while the rig count continues to reject Trump's 'Drill, baby, drill' narrative...

EIA Reports Crude, Product Builds All Around -Crude oil inventories in the United States saw an increase of 1.3 million barrels during the week ending May 16, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday. Crude oil prices were trading up prior to the crude data release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a build in US crude oil inventories of 2.499 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories with draws in gasoline and distillate stocks. At 10:14 am in New York, the Brent benchmark was trading up $0.31 per barrel (+.47%) at $65.69—a roughly $0.80 drop week over week. WTI was trading up $0.37 (+0.60%) on the day at $62.40 per barrel, a $1 per barrel increase week over week. For total motor gasoline, the EIA estimated that inventories increased by 800,000 barrels for the week to May 16, with daily production increasing to an average 9.6 million barrels. This compares with an inventory decrease of 1 million barrels for the previous week and an average daily production of 9.4 million barrels. For middle distillates, the EIA estimated an increase of 600,000 barrels, with production increasing to 4.7 million barrels daily. This compares to an inventory dip of 3.2 million barrels in the week prior, when production stood at an average of 4.6 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are now 16% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total products supplied over the last four weeks were down week over week, averaging 19.6 million barrels per day—a 2.8% decrease from this time last year. Distillate products supplied over the last four weeks are up 4.2% compared to this time last year, while gasoline products supplied were up 1% from the same period last year.

Oil prices fall on news that US-Iran will hold nuclear talks(Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday, after Oman's foreign minister said a fresh round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. would take place later this week. Prices had gained earlier in the session on a CNN report on Tuesday that U.S. intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. CNN cited multiple U.S. officials and added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Brent futures settled down 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.91 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $61.57. Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and an Israeli attack could upset flows from the country. "Now we're going for another round of peace talks so that offset that premium we put in," Still, there are concerns Iran could retaliate by blocking oil tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates export crude oil and fuel. "If tensions were to escalate, we're likely looking at temporary trade shifts or a supply hit of around 500,000 barrels a day - something OPEC+ could offset fairly quickly," Rystad Energy analyst Priya Walia said. The U.S. and Iran have held several rounds of talks this year over Iran's nuclear programme while U.S. President Donald Trump has revived a campaign of stronger sanctions on Iranian crude exports. Kazakhstan's oil production, meanwhile, has risen by 2% in May, an industry source said on Tuesday, defying OPEC+ pressure to reduce output. Oil prices also fell on Wednesday after bearish U.S. government data on domestic crude, gasoline and distillate inventories, which all posted surprise builds last week. Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks rose by about 800,000 barrels and distillate stockpiles added about 600,000 barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

Oil Prices Slide on US-Iran Deal Hopes and OPEC+ Production Gains -Oil prices fell over 1% in early Thursday trading as markets reacted to two significant developments: continued US-Iran nuclear negotiations that could potentially ease sanctions and lift Iranian oil exports, and reports that OPEC+ is considering increasing production output for July. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to $60.65 per barrel while Brent crude declined to around $63.45. The fifth round of Iran-US nuclear talks is scheduled to take place in Rome on Friday, with Oman acting as a mediator between the two sides. According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, Tehran has agreed to a proposal pitched by Oman, though significant obstacles remain. The Iranian negotiating team remains committed to defending “the rights and interests of the Iranian people, particularly in securing the peaceful use of nuclear energy, including uranium enrichment,” and seeks the lifting of what it terms “unjust sanctions.” However, Tehran’s uranium enrichment program remains the primary sticking point between Iran and the US, with Washington insisting that Tehran fully cease its enrichment activities. The potential for sanctions relief has significant implications for global oil markets. Iran is currently exporting crude oil at limited volumes due to US sanctions, but could significantly ramp up its exports if restrictions are eased. This development aligns with production increases already underway in several OPEC+ member states, raising concerns over potential oversupply in global oil markets and putting downward pressure on prices. Mixed signals surrounding the talks, coupled with reports of a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, are adding to market uncertainty and investor caution. The market is pricing in the possibility that successful negotiations could bring substantial Iranian crude back to global markets relatively quickly. As of 5:20 AM EDT on May 22, 2025, WTI crude futures were trading at $60.65 per barrel, down $0.92 or 1.49% from the previous settlement price of $61.57. Brent crude fell by a similar margin to $63.94, down $0.97 or 1.49%. The decline extends recent weakness, with WTI down 15.61% year-to-date and 21.20% over the past year. Adding to supply concerns, Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ is discussing whether to make another large output increase at their June 1 meeting. An increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July is among the options under discussion, according to delegates, though no final agreement has been reached. The potential production increase comes as US inventory data showed mixed signals about demand. Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.3% during the week ending May 16, rising by around 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels – higher than market predictions of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. This surprise stock build, along with increases in gasoline inventories of around 800,000 barrels, suggests sluggish demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

OPEC+ Discussing a Production Increase for July -The oil market on Thursday traded lower and settled down following a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July. The market posted the day’s trading range by early this morning, trading to a high of $61.75 before it sold off sharply after Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ producers are discussing whether to make another large output increase at their meeting on June 1st. The crude market sold off to a low of $60.25 as it retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $54.95 to a high of $64.19. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The July WTI contract settled down 37 cents at $61.20 and the July Brent contract settled down 47 cents at $64.44. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 2.16 cents at $2.1175 and the RB market settling down 1.86 cents at $2.1312. The White House said U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a potential deal with Iran in a call on Thursday, adding that President Trump believes things are moving in the right direction.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Israel will receive a “devastating and decisive response” if it attacks Iran, days after CNN reported U.S. intelligence suggesting Israel was preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran and the U.S. will hold a fifth round of nuclear talks on Friday in Rome. It was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision on military action and there was disagreement within the U.S. government about whether the Israelis would ultimately decide to attack. On Tuesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said U.S. demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium are “excessive and outrageous”.Separately, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said the U.S. will bear legal responsibility in the event of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. He said Iran would view the U.S. as a “participant” in any such attack and Iran would have to adopt “special measures” to protect its nuclear sites and material if threats continued and added that the IAEA would be subsequently informed of such steps.The Chinese Mission to the European Union said that it had filed a complaint with the EU over its Russia-related sanctions on Chinese firms. Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large production increase at their meeting on June 1. An output hike of 411,000 bpd for July is among the options under discussion, although no final agreement has yet been reached. U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said Chevron’s oil license in Venezuela will expire on Tuesday, May 27.

Oil prices settle down on potential further increase in OPEC+ output (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday as investors weighed a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July, stoking concerns that global supply could outpace demand growth. Brent futures settled down 47 cents, or 0.72%, to $64.44 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $61.20. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are discussing whether to make another large output increase at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported. An increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July is among the options under discussion, though no final agreement has been reached, the report said, citing delegates. "The OPEC+ speculation is the biggest factor today," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. "This OPEC+ decision is going to be pretty weighty, and it is not helping that Kazakhstan did not come through last month," he added. Kazakhstan's oil production has risen by 2% in May, an industry source said on Tuesday. Reuters previously reported that the group planned to accelerate output increases and could bring back as much as 2.2 million bpd by November. OPEC+ has been in the process of unwinding production cuts, with additions to the market in May and June. "We're seeing the market reacting to evidence that OPEC is letting go of a strategy to defend price in favour of market share," said Harry Tchiliguirian at Onyx Capital Group. "It's a bit like taking off a Band-Aid; you do it in one fell swoop." RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note on Wednesday that a 411,000-bpd increase from July is the "most likely outcome" from the meeting, primarily from Saudi Arabia. "A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world, in line with the original taper schedule," she said. Prices were already lower in the session after Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday showed U.S. crude and fuel inventories showed surprise stock builds last week as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped. Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the EIA said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.3 million barrels. The EIA's surprise stock builds will exert downward pressure on prices, particularly on WTI, said Emril Jamil at LSEG Oil Research, adding that this could further encourage more U.S. exports to Europe and Asia. Curbing losses on Thursday, U.S. oil company Chevron's (CVX.N), opens new tab license to operate in Venezuela will expire on May 27, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a post on his personal X account late on Wednesday. "This statement by Rubio could be a game changer. But these deadlines have been extended in the past, so maybe the market is just not convinced yet,"

Oil slides on Trump tariff threats and OPEC+ supply expectations | Cyprus Mail -Oil prices dropped by 1 per cent on Friday and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks as US President Donald Trump recommended a 50 per cent tariff on the European Union and expectations rose that OPEC+ will increase crude output further in July. Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 1 per cent, to $63.80 a barrel by 1236 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 64 cents, or 1.1 per cent, at $60.56. Prices were already down for a fourth consecutive session, pressured by the OPEC+ output expectations, before the tariff news left Brent on track to fall 2.4 per cent on the week and WTI set for a 3 per cent decline. President Trump said on Friday that he is recommending a straight 50 per cent tariff on goods from the EU starting on June 1, saying the bloc has been hard to deal with on trade. “The tariff threats versus the European Union, an important trading partner of the US, supports renewed economic slowdown concerns,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia is holding meetings next week expected to yield another output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July. Reuters reported this month that the group could unwind the rest of its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cut by the end of October, having already raised output targets by about 1 million bpd for April, May and June. The market is also focused on US-Iranian nuclear negotiations that could determine future supply of Iranian oil. The fifth round of talks will take place in Rome on Friday. “The growing conviction of OPEC+ sticking with the accelerated output increase throughout July, and the fact that the US-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing all add to the bearish sentiment,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga. The supply tailwind offset jitters earlier in the week after a report said that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, plus the announcement of new sanctions by the EU and Britain on Russia’s oil trade.

WTI Settles at $61.53 in Light Trade | Rigzone - Oil drifted higher in thin pre-holiday trading as investors’ conviction that the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal waned while strong US data buoyed a shaky demand picture. West Texas Intermediate edged up by 0.5% to settle above $61 a barrel, with volumes trending lower ahead of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. The US and Iran concluded a fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome that yielded “some but not conclusive progress,” according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A wrong turn in the negotiations, which have spurred criticism from several high-ranking Iranian officials, may lead to tighter sanctions, crimping flows from the OPEC member. Meanwhile, strong US economic data helped erase an earlier rout of nearly 2% after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the European Union had been “very difficult to deal with” and that he would recommend a 50% tariff to be imposed on the bloc on June 1. The US dollar slumped to its lowest level since 2023, making commodities priced in the currency more attractive. Geopolitics have been a major focus for traders this week, with a report from CNN that US intelligence suggested Israel was making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities driving brief gains earlier in the week. After that, Araghchi, Iran’s lead negotiator in talks with the US, said a deal was possible that would entail Tehran avoiding nuclear weapons, but not ditching uranium enrichment. Still, the outlook remains overall bearish. Crude has shed about 14% this year, hitting the lowest since 2021 last month, as OPEC+ loosened supply curbs at a faster-than-expected pace, just as the US-led tariff war posed headwinds for demand. Prices had recovered some ground as trade tensions between the US and China eased, but data this week also showed another increase in US commercial oil stockpiles, adding to concerns about a supply glut. “Bearish sentiment returned to the oil market this week,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, a strategist at Danske Bank. “While another OPEC+ output hike is the main concern, progress in Iran nuclear talks, and the potential sanctions relief, and lack of progress in trade talks add to market woes.” A group of eight OPEC+ nations, including de facto leader Saudi Arabia, will hold a virtual meeting on June 1 to decide on July’s supply levels. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts showed most expected another surge. Elsewhere, European Commission economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis said it would be appropriate to lower the cap on Russian oil to $50 a barrel. The current $60 ceiling — meant to punish Moscow for its war against Ukraine, while keeping the oil flowing — isn’t hurting the producer given lower prices, he added. WTI for July delivery rose 0.5% to settle at $61.53 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement advanced 0.5% to settle at $64.78 a barrel.

Oil gains on short-covering, nuclear talks (Reuters) - Oil prices gained on Friday as U.S. buyers covered positions ahead of the three-day Memorial Day weekend amid worries over the latest round of nuclear talks between American and Iranian negotiators. Brent crude futures settled at $64.78 a barrel, up 34 cents, or 0.54%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $61.53, up 33 cents, or 0.54%. "I think there is some short-covering going into this weekend," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. The Memorial Day weekend kicks off the U.S. summer driving season, the period of highest demand for motor fuels. U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in Rome on Friday in another round of talks aimed at curtailing the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Traders are afraid crude supplies could be interrupted if talks fail to reach a deal, Flynn said. "The talks are not looking good," he said. "If these are the last talks and there's no deal, it could give a green light to the Israelis to attack Iran." President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is recommending a straight 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting on June 1, saying the bloc has been hard to deal with on trade. "The oil market has been under pressure from two things," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "We await the impact of tariffs on oil demand and OPEC+ is expected to increase supply again this summer." OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia is holding meetings next week expected to yield another output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July. Reuters reported this month that the group could unwind the rest of its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cut by the end of October, having already raised output targets by about 1 million bpd for April, May and June.

CNN: Israel Preparing Possible Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities - The US has obtained new intelligence that suggests Israel is preparing to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday.The report cited officials who said it was unclear if Israeli leaders had made a final decision, and the chances of an attack depend on the results of the negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran. One source told CNN that the “chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months” and the “prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”Iranian officials have made clear that the idea of eliminating Iran’s uranium enrichment program is a non-starter, although US officials continue to make the demand.The CNN report acknowledged that Israel doesn’t have the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without support from the US. A senior US official said that the US was stepping up intelligence collection to be prepared to assist in an Israeli attack on Iran, but another source said it was unlikely Trump would support such a move at this time.An Israeli source said that Israel could launch an attack on its own if the US and Iran were to negotiate what it considers a “bad deal.”Another source said that it was more likely Israel would launch the strike during the negotiations to sabotage the chances of the agreement. “I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” the source said. “The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”President Trump previously declined to back an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, opting instead for diplomacy. But he has conducted the negotiations under the threat that if a deal isn’t reached, the US will bomb Iran.

Israeli Strikes Kill Hundreds in Gaza as IDF Announces 'Extensive Ground Operations' - Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza in recent days as the Israeli military has launched a new phase of its assault on the Strip, dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots.”On Sunday, the IDF announced it was conducting “extensive ground operations” in northern and southern Gaza, and medical sources told Al Jazeera that at least 144 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza since dawn.The Palestinian news agency WAFA described overnight Israeli attacksas “one of the bloodiest nights since the beginning of the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza.” The news agency reported that at least 20 were killed and 100 were wounded by attacks on tents sheltering displaced Palestinians in the al-Mawasi area near Khan Younis.The purpose of Israel’s new offensive is to capture more territory and flatten every remaining building in Gaza with the goal of a full military occupation. Israeli officials have said another goal is to “concentrate” the Palestinian civilian population into a tiny area in southern Gaza, although a leaked Israeli military proposal suggests another plan could be in the works.Under the proposal, which was obtained by The Sunday Times, the IDF would force all civilians into three strips of land in the northern, central, and southern parts of Gaza. The civilian areas will be separated by four IDF-occupied military zones that civilians aren’t allowed to enter.The Times report said the Israeli military could carry out the plan if a ceasefire deal with Hamas is not reached in the coming days. According to Axios, US envoy Steve Witkoff presented a proposal for a 45 to 60-day ceasefire and the release of 10 Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.The proposal also involves Israel making a commitment to work toward a permanent ceasefire, but Israel has violated a similar deal before. Hamas has also maintained that it will not agree to a deal without an upfront commitment to a ceasefire. CNN reported that Hamas had agreed to release nine hostages in exchange for a two-month ceasefire, but the report was quickly denied by a Hamas official.

Netanyahu Announces Israel Will Allow a 'Basic' Amount of Food To Enter Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that Israel would allow a “basic” amount of food to enter Gaza after a more than 70-day total blockade on the Palestinian territory.“On the recommendation of the IDF, and out of the operational need to enable the expansion of the intense fighting to defeat Hamas, Israel will introduce a basic amount of food to the population in order to ensure that a famine crisis does not develop in the Gaza Strip,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement, according to Drop Site News.Netanyahu said that a famine would “jeopardize” Israel’s new military campaign in Gaza, dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots,” which was launched in recent days as the Israeli military has significantly stepped up strikes on Gaza and expanded ground operations, killing hundreds of Palestinians.Netanyahu’s statement added that Israel “will work to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian aid to ensure that the aid does not reach Hamas terrorists.”According to the Israeli news site Ynet, Netanyahu told his security cabinet that the decision was necessary due to pressure from the US. In recent days, high-level US officials have expressed concern about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Israeli media also reported that aid will be distributed by international organizations, including the UN’s World Food Program and the US-based World Central Kitchen, before being done through a new US and Israeli-backed foundation, a plan the UN has condemned as not sufficient to bring real relief to Gaza’s civilian population.Both the WFP and WCK have recently shuttered operations in Gaza after running out of supplies due to the Israeli blockade. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, 57 children have died of malnutrition since the total blockade was imposed on March 2.

Smotrich: Allowing 'Minimal' Aid Into Gaza Will Ensure Israel Can 'Destroy' the Strip - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday that allowing “minimal” aid into Gaza will ensure Israel has continued support from its “friends” to continue with its goal of “destroying” the Palestinian territory.Smotrich’s comments came after more than 70 days of Israel’s total blockade on Gaza and a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would allow a “basic” amount of food to enter the territory, and the five aid trucks reportedly entered Gaza on Monday, the first trucks since March 2.Smotrich said allowing a minuscule amount of aid to enter Gaza will allow “for our friends in the world to continue to provide us with an international umbrella of protection against the Security Council and The Hague Tribunal, and for us to continue to fight, God willing, until victory.”Netanyahu made similar comments on Monday, saying that allowing “minimal” aid into Gaza was about maintaining support from the US. “Our best friends in the world – senators I know as strong supporters of Israel – have warned that they cannot support us if images of mass starvation emerge,” he said.“We must avoid famine, both for practical reasons and diplomatic ones. Without international backing, we won’t be able to complete the mission of victory,” the prime minister added.Last year, Smotrich said that it may be “moral and justified” for Israel to starve two million Palestinians to death in Gaza, but that the world wouldn’t let it happen.Smotrich said on Monday that in the coming days, a small amount of supplies will be delivered to “bakeries that distribute pitas to people and public kitchens that provide a daily ration of cooked food. Civilians in Gaza will receive a pita and a plate of food, and that is it.”Smotrich praised the Israeli military’s new offensive, dubbed Gideon’s Chariots, saying the IDF was now “destroying what is left of the Strip simply because everything there is one big city of terror.” He said once the civilian population is forced to move to southern Gaza, they will be expelled from Gaza “as part of President Trump’s plan.” Smotrich has been one of the leading proponents of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza within the Israeli government.Netanyahu said that Israel was engaged in “intense, large-scale combat in Gaza” to take “control of the entire territory.”Both Netanyahu and Smotrich said that aid wouldn’t reach Hamas. Israel is planning to establish a new aid mechanism that will involve private US contractors providing security for aid distribution points. The plan has been condemned by the UN and other aid agencies as insufficient and as a way to forcibly displace starving Palestinians by using aid as “bait.”

Israeli Strikes in Gaza Kill 125 Over 24 Hours Amid Ramped-Up IDF Offensive - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Monday that at least 125 Palestinians were killed and 364 were wounded over the previous 24-hour period as the Israeli military expanded military operations in the Strip.The Health Ministry said that the bodies of 11 Palestinians who were killed in previous Israeli attacks were also recovered. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Heavy Israeli strikes hit the southernMedical sources told Al Jazeera that the Israeli military launched at least 30 strikes on Khan Younis on Monday, and attacks also hit the central and northern parts of Gaza.More than 100 Palestinians have been reported killed on a daily basis for the past few days as the Israeli military has launched a new phase of its genocidal war on Gaza, an offensive it has dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots.” The purpose of the assault is the full Israeli takeover of Gaza and the destruction of any remaining buildings.

Yemen's Houthis Announce Blockade on Israel's Haifa Port -Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, announced on Monday that they are imposing a blockade on Israel’s Haifa port, signaling Yemeni attacks on Israel will expand.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the blockade was a response to Israel escalating its genocidal war on Gaza.“The Yemeni Armed Forces, relying on Allah and trusting in Allah, have decided, with Allah’s help, to implement the leadership’s directives to begin working to enforce a naval blockade of the port of Haifa,” Saree said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency. “Accordingly, all companies with ships present in or heading to this port are hereby notified that, as of the time of this announcement, the aforementioned port has been included in the target bank,” Saree added.Since President Trump announced a US-Houthi ceasefire on May 6, Ansar Allah has continued its missile and drone attacks on Israel, which have focused on the Ben Gurion Airport. Israel has launched several rounds of airstrikes on Yemen, but the Houthis have shown no sign of backing down.The Houthis have maintained that Yemeni attacks on Israel will continue until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade of the Palestinian territory. “All measures and decisions of the armed forces related to the Israeli enemy, including support operations and the ban on air and sea navigation, will cease once the aggression on Gaza ends and the blockade is lifted,” Saree said. While President Trump framed the truce with the Houthis as a US victory, the US really gave up trying to stop Yemeni attacks on Israel after a month and a half of heavy airstrikes.

UN Says No Aid Distributed Yet in Gaza - The UN said on Tuesday that while aid trucks have been allowed to enter the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom border crossing, its teams have been unable to access and distribute the shipments.“Today, one of our teams waited several hours for the Israeli green light to access the Kareem Shalom area and collect the nutrition supplies. Unfortunately, they were not able to bring those supplies into our warehouse,” said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric.“So just to make it clear, while more supplies have come into the Gaza Strip, we have not been able to secure the arrival of those supplies into our warehouses and delivery points,” he added.Dujarric said that only four trucks of baby food were dropped off on the Gaza side of the border on Monday, and a few dozen trucks of flour, medicine, and other basic goods entered Gaza on Tuesday. Dujarric’s comments came as Tom Fletcher, the UN’s humanitarian chief, warned that 14,000 babies could starve to death “within the next 48 hours” if aid doesn’t reach them. Fletcher described the difficulty of the UN distributing aid due to the continued Israeli military operations in Gaza. “We run the risk of looting. We run the risks of being hit as part of the Israeli military offensive. We run all sorts of risk trying to get that baby food through to those mothers who cannot feed their children right now because they’re malnourished,” Fletcher said.

Israeli Opposition Leader Says Israel Is Killing Palestinian Babies as a 'Hobby' - Yair Golan, the leader of Israel’s Democrats party, has said Israel is killing Palestinian babies as a “hobby,” sparking a strong backlash from other Israeli Knesset members and government officials.“Israel is on the path to becoming a pariah state among the nations – like the South Africa of old – if it does not return to behaving like a sane country,” said Golan, a retired IDF major general.“A sane country does not wage war against civilians, does not kill babies for a hobby, and does not set goals involving the expulsion of populations,” he added.Golan pinned the blame on the Netanyahu government, saying that it was filled with “people who have nothing whatsoever to do with Judaism – Kahanist types, lacking wisdom, morality, and the ability to manage a state during an emergency.”In response to Golan’s comments, Netanyahu accused him of “blood libel,” and other Israeli MKs are trying to strip him of his military rank.Following the criticism, Golan said that he was specifically criticizing the government, not the Israeli military. “The war is the realization of fantasies of [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich and [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir. And if we allow these fantasies to become real, we’ll become a pariah state,” he said. “The IDF is moral and the people are honest, the government is crooked. The war needs to end, the hostages returned and Israel rehabilitated,” Golan added.

Former Israeli MK: 'Every Child, Every Baby in Gaza Is an Enemy' - Moshe Feiglin, a former member of the Israeli Knesset, declared in an appearance on Israeli TV on Tuesday that “every child, every baby in Gaza is an enemy” of Israel. “The enemy is not Hamas, nor is it the military wing of Hamas, as our military commander tells us, that we are forbidden to harm a Hamasnik unless he is part of the military wing,” Feiglin said, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv. “Every child in Gaza is the enemy. We need to occupy Gaza and settle it, and not a single Gazan child will be left there. There is no other victory,” he added. Feiglin’s genocidal comments came on the same day that Yair Golan, leader of Israel’s Democrats Party, said that Israel was killing babies in Gaza as a “hobby,” which sparked a strong backlash from Netanyahu and his allies.

Israeli Hatred for Children in Gaza Is Shocking - by Rep. John J. Duncan, Jr - The hatred of some in Israel for the people of Gaza – even for little children – is just astounding. If they have even a tiny bit of belief in God, they should pray for forgiveness. Unfortunately, NPR reported last Thursday (May 15) on “deadly airstrikes, killing more than 150 people in the past day, including dozens of children.” On May 9 the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and many other publications reported on a meeting of a subcommittee of Israel’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. The hearing in the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, was not about concern for children who were starving or who had to have amputations without anesthesia. It was about concern over the public relations harm to Israel. One of the witnesses was Dr. Sharon Shaul from NATAN, a worldwide humanitarian aid charity. Dr. Shaul said, “I believe that none of the people sitting around this table are concerned that a suffering child cannot receive painkillers or even minimal medical treatment.” Then the story said that Knesset member Amit Halevi from Netanyahu’s Likud Party “interrupted her angrily saying, ‘I’m not sure you’re speaking for us when you say we want to treat every child and every woman.’” The doctor then replied that she hoped the member would not oppose “a four-year-old child” undergoing an amputation receiving pain medication. “I hope you have that compassion,” Dr. Shaul said. However, Knesset member Limor Son Har-Melech “pointed at the doctor and said ‘the only treatment that should be given is to you.’” Another member shouted, “You are the sickest doctor I have ever seen.” Elad Barashi, a producer at Israel’s Channel 14, surpassed even this hatred by writing on social media in early May: “Good morning. Let there be a holocaust in Gaza.” In another post, he wrote: “I can’t understand the people here in the State of Israel who don’t want to fill Gaza with gas chambers … or train cars… and finish this story. Let there be a holocaust in Gaza.” He added: “Men, women and children – by any means necessary we must simply carry out a Shoa against them – yes, read that again – H-O-L-O-C-A-U-S-T!” He said there were 2.6 million terrorists in Gaza and wrote: “Without fear, without weakness – just Crush. Eliminate. Slaughter. Flatten. Dismantle. Smash. Shatter.” The fanatic Netanyahu has been indicted for war crimes and crimes against humanity, yet he is a hero in our Congress because of campaign contributions. The rest of the world is overwhelmingly against the genocide in Gaza. In my column two weeks ago, I wrote of the letter signed by the 36 members of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, which criticized what it called this “most extremist of Israeli governments” and said, “We stand against the war.”

Pope Leo XIV Renews Call for Gaza Ceasefire, End To Israeli Blockade on Aid - On Wednesday, Pope Leo XIV renewed his call for a ceasefire in Gaza and for Israel to allow humanitarian aid to enter the besieged Palestinian territory. “The situation in Gaza is increasingly worrying and painful,” Leo said during his first general audience in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican.- “I renew my appeal to allow the entry of dignified humanitarian aid and to put an end to the hostilities, whose heartbreaking price is paid by the children, elderly, and the sick,” he added. Israel imposed a total blockade on Gaza on March 2, and in recent days, has allowed a small number of trucks to enter the enclave.However, according to the latest reports, no aid has reached the starving population. The UN said on Tuesday night that its teams were unable to access aid trucks on the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom crossing. Since being elected pope on May 8, Leo, the first US-born pontiff, has made several calls for peace in Gaza and other conflict zones around the world. At the conclusion of his inaugural Mass on Sunday, Leo urged Catholics to keep in mind those suffering in Gaza, Myanmar, and Ukraine.“In the joy of faith and communion, we cannot forget our brothers and sisters who suffer because of war. In Gaza, the surviving children, families, and the elderly are reduced to starvation,” he said. Leo has also offered to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump noted Leo’s offer in a recent statement on future Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, suggesting the Vatican could be the venue.

Netanyahu Says Trump's Ethnic Cleansing Plan Is a Condition To End Gaza War - On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said President Trump’s plan to remove the Palestinian population from Gaza was a condition to end Israel’s genocidal war on the besieged territory.“I am prepared to end the war in Gaza, under clear conditions that will ensure the safety of Israel – all the hostages come home, Hamas lays down its arms, steps down from power, its leadership is exiled from the Strip … Gaza is totally disarmed, and we carry out the Trump plan. A plan that is so correct and so revolutionary,” Netanyahu said, according to The Cradle. Trump has repeatedly called for the removal of Gaza’s population as part of his plan for the US to take over the territory and has previously said there would be no right of return for Palestinians. Netanyahu’s comments on Wednesday marked the first time he said the expulsion of the Palestinian population was a condition to end the war. It’s been clear since October 2023 that the Israeli government wanted ethnic cleansing in Gaza, and Trump’s calls have emboldened Netanyahu and other officials to pursue a plan to carry it out. It still remains unclear where the Palestinians would go. Netanyahu recently told a Knesset committee that the lack of countries willing to take in Gaza’s population was the “main problem” preventing “emigration.”Netanyahu also vowed on Wednesday that Israel would fully occupy Gaza. “All of Gaza’s territories will be under Israeli security control, and Hamas will be totally defeated,” he said. The Israeli leader also said Israel would set up a “sterile zone” in southern Gaza for the civilian population. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said that under Israel’s plans for its current military offensive, the civilian population will be “concentrated” into a tiny area of the south and then pressured to leave Gaza. “The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places,” Smotrich said.