natural gas price hit a one year high; commercial oil supplies at a 3 month high; gasoline demand at a nine month low

US oil prices rose for the second time in three weeks on a major escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine.…after falling 4.8% to $67.02 a barrel last week on a stronger US dollar and forecasts for increasing supplies and lower demand, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery traded higher in Asia on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, then jumped more than $1 a barrel in New York Monday morning after the White House granted Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russian territory with U.S. weapons, and continued to rally to settle $2.14 higher at $69.16 a barrel after news that crude production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe's largest, had been halted due to an onshore power outage…oil prices referencing December oil retreated in Asia on Tuesday as traders began shifting WTI trades to the January contract ahead of the expiration of the December contract on Wednesday, and slid to as low as $68.45 in New York following the news that state oil company Equinor had resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field, but recovered to settle 23 cents higher at $69.39 a barrel after Ukraine struck Russia with longer-range, U.S.-made missiles…the December contract rallied early on its last day of trading on Wednesday on the escalation between Ukraine and Russia, and the likelihood of a disruption of oil supplies from Russia, even as a higher-than-expected build in US crude oil inventories limited gains, but dipped after the EIA reported a smaller crude inventory build but a large gasoline inventory build, and expired 52 cents, or 0.75% lower, at $68.87 a barrel, as US crude and gasoline stocks rose by more than expected, while the more active WTI contract for January delivery settled down 49 cents at $68.75 a barrel…with markets now quoting the contract price for US light sweet crude for January delivery, prices extended their gains on Thursday, on concerns over rising geopolitical tensions, as the war between Russia and Ukraine continued and the conflict in the Middle East widened, then moved over $70 after Ukraine said Russia fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile at a Ukrainian city, and settled $1.35 or 2% higher at a two week high of $70.10 a barrel as Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, worrying markets about crude supply if the conflict widened….oil prices climbed more than $1 to a new two-week high on overseas markets on Friday as the intensifying war in Ukraine boosted the market’s geopolitical risk premium, then followed through to settle $1.14 higher at $71.24 a barrel in New York, as traders continued to monitor the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia, one of the world's largest oil producers….oil price quotes thus rose 6.3% over the past week, while the contract for US light sweet oil for January delivery, which had ended the prior week priced at $66.92 a barrel, finished 6.5% higher…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for a third consecutive week on forecasts for below normal temperatures and a surprise withdrawal of natural gas from storage….after rising 5.8% to $2.823 per mmBTU last week as traders were surprised by a forecast for wintry weather to arrive by the end of November, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for December delivery opened the week 3 cents higher and rose to $2.920 by midday Monday, as updated forecasts for increased weather driven demand to close out the month provided support, and continued rising to settle 15.0 cents higher at $2.973 per mmBTU, as forecasts predicted cold weather while producing companies contemplated ramping up supply….natural gas prices opened higher on Tuesday, but fell to an intraday low of $2.919 within minutes, on conflicting fundamentals, as storage levels at an eight year high approached the 4 trillion cubic feet mark, while increased demand was forecasted to close out the month, but rallied before noon to settle 2.5 cents higher at a five month high of $2.998 per mmBTU on forecasts for colder weather in late November, which would force utilities to start pulling gas from storage by Thanksgiving….natural gas prices opened nearly 10 cents higher on Wednesday, supported by the arrival of seasonal temperatures, and rallied to a ten-month intraday high of $3.229, before settling 19.5 cents higher at $3.193 per mmBTU, soaring on the expectation that demand would rise with the colder weather…the price for December natural gas opened 23.3 cents higher and rose to a one year high of $3.451, following a bullish storage report on Thursday morning, then settled with a gain for the day of 14.6 cents at $3.339 per mmBTU on a surprise weekly withdrawal from storage, forecasts for colder weather, and on rising gas flows to LNG export plants…however, after five straight daily gains, natural gas prices headed lower on profit taking on Friday following some moderation in overnight forecasts for the intensity of a coming cold snap, and settled the session 21 cents or 6% lower at $3.129 per mmBTU, as higher prices prompted producers to start boosting output, despite forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, as prices still finished 10.8% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending November 15th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet to 3,969 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the first natural gas withdrawal of the season, which still left our natural gas supplies 141 billion cubic feet, or 3.7% above the 3,828 billion cubic feet that were in storage on November 15th of last year, and 239 billion cubic feet, or 6.4% more than the five-year average of 3,730 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 15th of November over the most recent five years….the 3 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week contrasts with the 6 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and also from the 14 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in November of 2023, while it was somewhat less than the average 16 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same November week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 15th indicated that in spite of a sizable increase our oil exports, an even bigger jump in our oil imports meant we had surplus oil left to add our stored commercial crude supplies for the eighth time in twenty-one weeks, and for the 24th time in the past 50 weeks, despite an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account ...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,175,000 barrels per day to average 7,684,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 269,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 938,000 barrels per day to 4,378,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 3,306,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending November 15th, 237,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 563,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 199,000 barrels per day lower at 13,201,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,070,000 barrels per day during the November 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,228,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 15th, an average of 281,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 278,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending November 15th averaged a rounded 564,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [-564,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….But since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 278,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 78,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 200,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-ninth SPR increase in the past fifty-six weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,602,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.7% more than the 6,430,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 199,000 barrels per day lower at 13,201,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 240,000 barrels per day lower at 12,760,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 9,000 barrels per day higher at 441,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 0.8% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 36.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 90.2% of their capacity while processing those 16,228,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 15th, down from from their 91.4% utilization rate of a week earlier, ​but not an unusual change in utilization rates for the middle of Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 16,228,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 4.7% more than the 15,504,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending November 17th of 2023, but 1.3% less than the 16,435,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 15th, 2019, a week when our refinery utilization rate was at a fairly low 89.5% for mid-Autumn…

With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries ​was also lower, decreasing by 980,000 barrels per day to 9,287,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 15th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 559,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 0.9% less than the 9,372,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending November 17th of last year, and 7.6% less than the gasoline production of 10,053,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending November 15th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 132,000 barrels per day to 4,969,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 127,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those two sharp production decreases, our distillates output was 2.0% less than the 4,938,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 17th of 2023, and 5.6% less than the 5,124,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 15th, 2019…

Even after this week’s big decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the ninth time in twenty-one weeks, increasing by 2,054,000 barrels to 208,927,000 barrels during the week ending November 15th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 4,407,000 barrels to a two year low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 964,000 barrels per day to a nine month low of 8,419,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 361,000 barrels per day to 816,000 barrels per day, and fell even as our imports of gasoline fell by 254,000 barrels per day to 374,000 barrels per day, .…After twenty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.5% below last November 17th’s gasoline inventories of 216,420,000 barrels, and were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the eighth time in nine weeks, decreasing by 114,000 barrels to 114,301,000 barrels over the week ending November 15th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,394,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 323,000 barrels per day to 3,775,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 22,000 barrels per day to 1,201,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 15,000 barrels per day to 123,000 barrels per day....Even after 26 inventory withdrawals over the past 43 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 8.3% above the 105,561,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 17th of 2023, while they are still about 4% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after a big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 24th time over the past year, increasing by 545,000 barrels over the week, from 429,747,000 barrels on November 8th to a three month high of 430,292,000 barrels on November 15th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,089,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s modest increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and remained about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the 8th of November over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this November 15th were 4.0% less than the 448,054,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 17th of 2023, and 0.3% less than the 431,665,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 11th of 2022, and 1.2% less than the 433,003,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 12th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

Included below is a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 22nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (November 15th) and this week’s (November 22nd) count, the third column shows last Friday’s (November 15th) active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 24th of November, 2023…

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Enbridge Gas replacing pipelines in Austintown Township as part of big national project - Enbridge Gas has set its sights to Austintown Township to incorporate into its large plans to replace 14,000 feet of mainline pipeline in local streets in 2025. The Ohio Pipeline Infrastructure Replacement project is a $4 billion project that launched in 2008 and was expanded with help from Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) approval in 2016. It aims to replace 5,500-miles of Enbridge's 22,000-mile pipeline system. One of the areas of focus for Enbridge at the moment is Burkey Road. Austintown local schools will have a meeting on November 21 to discuss an easement for Enbridge Gas. When this project begins in Austintown around 230 customers could be impacted. Those customers will be notified in advance and traffic control measures will be made to maintain public safety during the construction. The project is estimated to cost up to $3 million. PUCO approved renewal investment into the project in 2020 and authorized annual investment through to 2026. The investment is reflected in the basic service charge portion of the customer bill and adjusts annually based on the investment from the previous year.

Enbridge takes land for Burkey Road gas pipeline project - The Vindicator — A gas line project will affect several homeowners along one road in the township, including the township itself. At Monday’s trustees meeting, Township Administrator Mark D’Apolito said Austintown owns one parcel of land along a stretch of Burkey Road where Enbridge Ohio Gas (formerly Dominion) will be replacing a long length of main gas line, and is purchasing right-of-way from property owners there to accommodate the project. “They don’t need our approval or blessing, as a utility,” D’Apolito said. “The only reason we’re involved is because we’re a property owner. This isn’t something we have authority over.” D’Apolito said the right-of-way will extend an additional 10 feet into property owners’ yards. Austintown owns a 0.41-acre parcel along the stretch in question. The utility right-of-way naturally extends 25 feet in each direction from the centerline of the road – 12 feet to the curb, then another 13 feet to the end of the right-of-way. The new project will add 10 feet onto that, meaning that homeowners cannot build any large structures within that space. D’Apolito said zoning laws prohibit building items like sheds that close to the road anyway. Stehpanie Moore, a spokesperson for Enbridge Ohio, said the company is securing the right-of-way along Burkey for a Pipeline Infrastructure Replacement project. “Our engineering team is designing a project to replace 14,000 feet of mainline pipeline in 2025,” she said. “We’re currently in the design and permitting portion of the project. The design team is seeking a 10′ easement roughly 170′ feet in length across two parcels that are parallel to Burkey Road to cross a stream.” Moore said that once the $3 million project begins in earnest, roughly 230 customers could be impacted. “We notify customers in advance of starting a project and make sure traffic control measures are in place to keep traffic flowing and to ensure public safety for the duration of construction,” she said. Moore said they estimate the project could take three to four months to complete.

Enbridge Gas Ohio is fined $350000 for violating pipeline safety regulations — Enbridge Gas Ohio will pay $350,000 for violating state and federal natural gas pipeline safety regulations in a recent settlement agreement with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Enbridge Gas Ohio, formerly known as Dominion Energy, has violated pipeline safety regulations several times since 2012, which previously resulted in three explosions. The most recent set of violations pertains to the company’s pipeline operations across Ohio. This includes a failure to maintain proper construction, abide by necessary procedures and ensure proper qualifications for outside contractors. Violations PUCO staff conducted a routine inspection at several Enbridge Gas Ohio locations between February and March 2023 and found several issues, including 36 instances of exposed pipelines. The company was also issued 11 Notice of Probable Noncompliance letters for a failure to monitor, clean and coat newly installed or exposed piping in communities like North Canton, Akron and Youngstown. Enbridge Gas Ohio also failed to keep adequate records. In its case filing, PUCO states that “most Dominion project folders reviewed were disorganized and difficult to review and understand.” PUCO found that the company does not keep records of abandoned pipelines, meaning it can’t ensure abandoned pipelines are disconnected from supplies of natural gas. The agency determined problems in the company’s qualification program, as well, in which two individuals did not have proper qualifications to conduct certain tasks and one individual on two separate occasions was said to have performed a task but did not work that day. PUCO notified Enbridge Gas Ohio of these violations in June 2023 and initially proposed a $500,000 fine. The state agency issued several orders for the company to come into compliance, which included creating an improved system of record keeping, establishing effective oversight of contractors and implementing a plan to regularly schedule maintenance tasks. Dominion Energy Ohio was acquired by Enbridge Inc. in March. Before then, the company had a history of violations since 2012, when a gas explosion and fire destroyed 11 homes and damaged another 150 in Fairport Harbor, Ohio, on Jan. 24, 2011.State Fire Marshall and PUCO investigators determined the explosion was a result of two gas line pressure regulators that failed on a village street. This sent highly pressurized gas from delivery lines into homes.The incident was the result of improperly designed regulators and the lack of an annual safety inspection, according to PUCO. Dominion Energy estimated a cost of $1.3 million in damages. PUCO later fined the company $500,000.Dominion Energy was also fined two other times in 2019. The company had to pay $25,000 for a fire in Cleveland on Feb. 3, 2019, that was caused by a natural gas release from a pipeline.Several months later, a pipeline ruptured in Pepper Pike, Ohio, on Nov. 15, 2019, that generated a gas line explosion. The incident was caused by a faulty weld which PUCO said was a result of poor construction, a failure to follow established procedures and a lack of oversight. The company was fined $1 million.According to Matt Schilling, director of public affairs at PUCO, the latest violations were “part two” of unresolved issues carried over from the Pepper Pike explosion.

MPLX “Sweet Spot” is Processing M-U Rich Gas and Producing NGLs - Marcellus Drilling News - In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged with the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. However, the company's first love, Marcellus/Utica, still plays a starring role. Greg Floerke, the executive vice president and COO of MPLX, sat for an interview with Hart Energy editorial director Jordan Blum at the company's recent DUG Appalachia event in Pittsburgh.

NW Pa. Injection Well Leak Went Undiscovered for 109 Days -Marcellus Drilling News - MDN is going to eat some crow with this story. In 2016, we called attention to efforts by neighbors (and anti-fossil fuelers) in Warren County, PA, in testing water sources near a wastewater injection well that had been operating since 2013 (see Concerned Citizens Test Water Near NWPA Injection Well, No Leaks). There had been no leaks from the Bear Lake Properties Bittinger #4 oil and gas wastewater injection well site in Columbus Township for (at that time) three years. We pointed out that injection well leaks are rare. However, there has been a leak at the Bittinger #4 well, and it was a doozy, traveling approximately 1,770 feet from the well site. That’s a full one-third of a mile. Not good. Even worse is that the company (due to an errant employee) failed to report the leak to the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) for 109 days.

PA Adds One Rig, Now @ 15; National Rig Count Drops One Rig @ 584 - Marcellus Drilling News --One month ago, Pennsylvania’s rig count dropped to just 12 rigs, the lowest that state has operated in the last 17 years (see PA Drops Another Rig to 17-Year Low; National Rig Count Even @ 585). Since then, PA has re-added one rig per week for three weeks in a row, and as of last Friday, the state was running 15 rigs for the first time since early October. Ohio and West Virginia both remained constant, with ten active rigs each. Cumulatively, the M-U sported 35 active rigs last week. We haven’t seen a rig count that high since August of this year (three months ago).

PA DEP Claims Permit Backlog for O&G Now Completely Eliminated --Marcellus Drilling News - Permitting in Pennsylvania overseen by the Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) has been a hot mess for years. A Chapter 102 Erosion and Sedimentation permit sometimes takes two, three, or even six months for approval — instead of the policy-mandated 14 days. According to a DEP press release from yesterday, that’s all behind us now. DEP Acting Secretary Jessica Shirley and Gov. Josh Shapiro said the agency has eliminated the backlog for oil and gas permits. Credit where credit is due

UGI Sells Marcellus Gas-Fired Power Plant in NE Pa. to Castleton -Marcellus Drilling News - UGI Corporation, a diversified energy company with midstream (pipeline) operations in the Marcellus and one of Pennsylvania’s largest utility companies, is selling its 169-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant near Wilkes-Barre, PA, to Castleton Commodities International for an undisclosed amount. The plant’s owner/seller is actually a wholly-owned subsidiary of UGI Corp. called UGI Energy Services.

Mountain Valley Pipe Dinged Small Fine by Va. for Erosion Violation -- Marcellus Drilling News Antis did their best, but their best wasn’t good enough. Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) victoriously began to flow up to 2 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica molecules in June (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). Construction of the project, which crosses steep mountains, has not been without its challenges, chief among them erosion at some construction sites due to heavy rain. Of course, most of that erosion would not have happened if environmental groups had not sued, and had a colluding Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals not delayed completion of the project FOR YEARS. Shame on them for causing more environmental damage than building the pipeline on time would have caused. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) recently dinged MVP with another small fine ($17,500) for erosion violations.

When Will the M-U Get Another New Greenfield Pipeline Project? | Marcellus Drilling News -- Environmental wackos have made building a new natural gas pipeline anywhere in the northeast (or southeast) such a heinously nasty experience with multiple and repeated regulatory challenges and a blizzard of lawsuits that nobody has ventured to propose a new "greenfield" (brand new from scratch) pipeline since Mountain Valley Pipeline, which took a decade to complete at double the original budget. We're hopeful the situation will change under the new Trump administration. The Marcellus/Utica industry recognizes we need another new pipeline to move more of our molecules to other regions. What would be the "driving force" to prompt a company to be willing to try once again?

LG&E and KU Break Ground on New 640-MW Gas-Fired Power Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News --Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities Company (KU), subsidiaries of PPL Corporation, celebrated a significant milestone last week with the groundbreaking of Mill Creek 5, a state-of-the-art 640-megawatt (MW) natural gas combined-cycle generating unit in Jefferson County, Kentucky. This new facility is set to begin powering homes and businesses in 2027. While no mention was made in the official announcement, we suspect the plant, when operational, will use Marcellus/Utica molecules, making this a major new customer for our gas.

ONEOK sells interstate pipeline operations in $1.2 billion deal - Oklahoma Energy Today - ONEOK, Inc. announced that it has executed a definitive agreement with DT Midstream, Inc. under which ONEOK will sell its three wholly owned interstate natural gas pipeline systems for a total cash consideration of $1.2 billion subject to customary adjustments. Based on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filings, the purchase price represents 10.8 times previous 12 months EBITDA as of June 30, 2024. The transaction, unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both ONEOK and DT Midstream, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024, and is subject to customary closing conditions, including Hart-Scott-Rodino Act clearance. “This transaction will align and enhance our capital allocation priorities within our integrated operating footprint,” said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and chief executive officer. “DT Midstream is the ideal owner of these FERC regulated interstate pipeline systems, with our employees sharing a similar culture of safety and reliability as they will continue to be excellent stewards of these assets providing essential natural gas transportation services. The three interstate pipeline systems include:

• Guardian Pipeline, L.L.C., which interconnects with several pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois, and with local natural gas distribution and electric generation companies in Wisconsin;
• Midwestern Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system with a major pipeline interconnect near Portland, Tennessee, and with multiple interstate pipelines that have access to both the Utica Shale and the Marcellus Shale, and multiple interstate pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois; and
• Viking Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system that interconnects with a major pipeline system at the U.S. border near Emerson, Canada, and Marshfield, Wisconsin.

Upon closing of this transaction, the net proceeds from the sale are expected to enhance ONEOK’s financial flexibility and ONEOK’s deleveraging trend toward its previously announced target of 3.5 times during 2026.

Plaquemines Closer to First LNG After Receiving Key FERC Approval --Venture Global LNG Inc. has received approval to introduce natural gas to the first block of liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines export project in Louisiana, clearing a regulatory hurdle that paves the way for the facility to start producing the super-chilled fuel in the coming weeks. FERC approved the company’s Nov. 12 request to commission and introduce natural gas to the first block, which includes two 0.626 million tons/year (Mt/y) trains. The 20 Mt/y project includes 18 blocks and 36 trains. The project still needs additional approvals for interconnecting systems before it can introduce gas to the first trains. Analysts have pushed back the startup for Plaquemines primarily because it did not receive approval to introduce natural gas into the first block sooner. Energy infrastructure and permitting analytics firm Arbo told NGI in October that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would have had to grant key authorizations months ago for Plaquemines to remain on schedule. U.S. LNG Project Delays, Falling European Demand Creating Headwinds for Natural Gas Shippers As spot rates for LNG vessels continue to tumble, ship owners are looking for more profitable short-term opportunities this winter before the global natural gas market tightens again. Chart showing spot LNG vessel rates for 19 Nov. 2024. During 2024, global gas markets have continued to adjust to the massive shift in dynamics after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That’s created a soft spot in the market for LNG shipping companies despite supply risks – especially for European buyers – keeping global benchmarks elevated. Import demand in Europe, which has been the main destination for U.S. LNG volumes for the past two years, has been depressed thanks to substantial storage on the continent and consecutive mild winters.

U.S. Export Facilities Absorbing More Natural Gas as Winter Weather Hits Europe, Asia — U.S. feed gas nominations to LNG export facilities have surged higher this month amid colder weather overseas and steadier output following the maintenance season. Natural gas prices at key hubs versus U.S. LNG feed gas pipeline deliveries. Feed gas flows have at times topped 14 million Dth/d this month and have averaged nearly 13.4 million Dth/d so far in November, according to NGI data. That’s up from an average of 13.02 million Dth/d in October and 12.64 million Dth/d in September. Deliveries have not neared the all-time high of 15.15 million Dth/d set on Dec. 17, 2023, NGI data shows. Feed gas deliveries to the Plaquemines LNG facility under construction in Louisiana have helped move the needle too, but there’s “not really much going on there in the grand scheme of things” just yet, said NGI’s senior energy analyst Josiah Clinedinst.

Enbridge Ready to Bring On Fourth Cavern at Texas Natural Gas Storage Facility --Enbridge Inc. has requested FERC authorization to bring online Cavern 4 at its Tres Palacios Gas Storage facility in Matagorda County, TX to make an additional 4.5 Bcf of natural gas storage capacity available to shippers in the Gulf Coast. Map showing Enbridge Inc.'s Gulf Coast footprint including gas storage facilities. The Canadian-based company said last month it successfully de-watered Cavern 4 to an initial capacity of about 4.5 Bcf, among other facilities. That is a portion of the cavern’s total working gas capacity of about 6.5 Bcf and 3.5 Bcf of base gas capacity. The full 10 Bcf of new certified capacity has an in-service date in the first quarter of 2025. The Gulf Coast facility has interconnects with pipelines including Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco), Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) and Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America (NGPL). These interstate pipes also interconnect with the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn Express Pipeline that moves gas from the Permian Basin to the coast.

U.S. Natural Gas Exporters Progress Self-Reporting as Questions Grow Around Climate Policy Cooperation --As the Biden administration makes overtures to secure natural gas emissions policies with key allies, major energy companies are moving forward with independent reporting and fighting to stay in environmental policy discussions. (a chart showing the destination countries of U.S. LNG exports by month) While the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) progressed in Azerbaijan, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) administrators called on European Union (EU) leaders to ensure European gas importers and third party countries could easily access U.S. LNG supplies when new methane regulations are enforced. The letter, signed by Assistant Energy Secretary Brad Crabtree and Assistant Administrator Joseph Goffman, asked for collaboration to make sure policies work in unison, while also highlighting the administration’s efforts to lead on methane assessment and abatements in the U.S. gas supply chain.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit 5-Month High on Late-November Cold Snap Forecast (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday to a five-month high, on forecasts for colder weather in late November that should boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling gas from storage by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.5 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.998 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since June 12. Capping gains were milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks that could limit heating demand. Analysts have said mild autumn weather should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for the week ended Nov. 15 and possibly Nov. 22. If correct, the week ended Nov. 15 would be the first time since October 2022 that inventories rose more than usual for five straight weeks. There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in November from 101.3 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a record 105.3 Bcf/d in December 2023. Annual output remained on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020. Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 4. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.7 Bcf/d this week to 115.4 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

US natgas prices jump 7% to 1-year high on surprise storage draw, colder forecasts --U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a one-year high on a surprise weekly withdrawal from storage, forecasts for colder weather and rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 3 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 15.That compares with the 6 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, the 12 bcf increase seen during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 16 bcf for this time of year.Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 23.5 cents, or 7.4%, to $3.428 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:42 a.m. EST (1542 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since November 2023. During five days, the contract has gained about 23%.Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.29dk2902lThat kept output on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020.Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly near normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 6.With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 bcfd this week to 115.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.On a daily basis, LSEG said feedgas was on track to jump to an 11-month high of 14.5 bcfd on Thursday, up from 14.1 bcfd on Wednesday, as flows to a couple of plants rose to record highs. Cameron LNG’s 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 2.4 bcfd on Thursday, while flows to the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility, which is under construction in Louisiana, was on track to rise to a record 60 million cubic feet per day on Thursday. Gas prices rose to 11-month highs of around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia on worries about Russian supplies and the coming of colder winter weather.

NatGas Hits Highest Price In Year On "Very Cold Pattern Developing" Across Lower 48 - Natural gas futures in Chicago jumped 6% on Thursday, reaching a one-year high as traders price a cold blast across the Lower 48. Futures for December delivery soared to $3.372 per million British thermal units, up 6% this morning and up nearly 27% since Nov. 8. Prices also touched a one-year. Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told energy news website Rigzone that NatGas soared on "the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) short-term forecast (6-14 days) predicts colder than normal temperatures spreading from the West Coast, with below-average conditions expected across much of the country, except for the Gulf Coast and East Coast." Data from Bloomberg shows that temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to trend below a 30-year average for the next few weeks, indicating that fuel demand will rise as thermostats are turned up. More weather forecast... Confidence increasing of a VERY cold pattern developing to end November and start December.Both the EPS/GEFS is support of a widespread notably below normal pattern for much of the US. You won't find a much better upper-level pattern with ridging near Greenland and the N.… pic.twitter.com/uQ2iNN1PxGOn this note, I suspect the fail of La Niña is playing a major role in preventing the Eastern/SE ridge that has been so dominant to be prevalent. Stretched polar vortex also setting up in the right spot is a big key too. Fun pattern for #Winter lovers approaching. https://t.co/XUWKsIzKH3 Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast.Impact SNOW will fall today from Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana into West Virginia. Snow will fall tonight and tomorrow in western North Carolina, West Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York state and northwest New Jersey. These could be double digits plowable,…pic.twitter.com/jYw4hQqhrM "Adding to the bullish sentiment, feedgas supply to U.S. LNG export terminals has climbed to 14.07 billion cubic feet per day, the highest level since January 2024, according to BNEF," Hvalbye added.The SEB analyst continued, "This marks a significant increase from last week's average of 13.5 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.6 billion cubic feet per day today, highlighting strong demand from the region."He said, "Domestic natural gas production in the U.S. is estimated at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day today, slightly below last week's average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day." "Meanwhile, demand for nat gas across the Lower 48 states has risen to 79.3 billion cubic feet per day but remains below the five-year average of approximately 82.7 billion cubic feet per day," he noted. Hvalbye added that the EU gas market will continue to see upward price pressure as global demand for LNG cargoes intensifies during the Northern Hemisphere winter season.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 5% on Surprise Storage Draw, Colder Forecasts (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Thursday to a one-year high on a surprise weekly withdrawal from storage, forecasts for colder weather and rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Capping those price gains, however, was news that a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas tripped offline on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 15. That compares with the 6-Bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, a 12-bcf increase seen during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 16 Bcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.6 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.339 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since November 2023. That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row and put it up for a fifth straight day. During those five days, the contract has gained about 20%. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 Bcf/d this week to 115.7 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 13.5 Bcf/d so far in November, up from 13.1 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LSEG said feedgas was on track to jump to an 11-month high of 14.5 Bcf/d on Thursday, up from 14.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday, as flows to a couple of plants rose to record highs. Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bcf/d plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 2.4 Bcf/d on Thursday, while flows to the first 1.8-Bcf/d phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines facility, which is under construction in Louisiana, was on track to rise to a record 60 million cubic feet per day on Thursday. Gas prices rose to 11-month highs of around $15 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia on worries about Russian supplies and the coming of colder winter weather.

US natgas prices fall 6% on rising output, less cold forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% in volatile trade on Friday as higher prices in recent weeks have finally prompted producers to start boosting output and on forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. After closing at a one-year high on Thursday, front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 21.0 cents, or 6.3%, to settle at $3.129 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Despite Friday's price decline, the front-month was still up about 11%, putting it up for a fifth week in a row for the first time since September. During those five weeks, the contract has gained about 39%. In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across much of the U.S. and Canada caused gas prices to rise to their highest levels since January in several regions, including the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL, the Eastern Gas South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania and AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. But on a daily basis, output over the past couple of days was on track to jump by around 1.4 bcfd to a preliminary 11-week high of 102.8 bcfd on Friday. Analysts expect producers will boost output in 2025 following a series of production cuts this year, as rising demand from liquefied natural gas export plants is expected to increase prices that had fallen to multi-decade lows. Average spot monthly prices at the Henry Hub fell to a 32-year low in March and have remained soft since then. Gas prices traded around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near an 11-month high of $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia.

Nov. STEO Predicts Henry Hub Gas Price to Average $2.90 in 2025 -- Marcellus Drilling News --The U.S. Energy Information issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook last week, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas will be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see Oct. STEO Predicts Lower Output, NatGas Price to Avg $3.10 in 2025). Last week, the agency reduced that number by $0.20 to $2.90/MMBtu. EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas for all of 2024 will end up being $2.20/MMBtu, a drop of $0.10 from the October prediction. EIA analysts also predict that the average spot price will be $2.80 during the first quarter of next year.

Look for Increase in U.S. LNG Exports to Europe in Coming Weeks -Marcellus Drilling News -- Reuters predicts a sharp increase in U.S. LNG exports to European destinations “in the coming weeks.” Why? Because “the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe’s main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs.” What the heck does that mean? We will explain it below.

Earthquakes hit Texas town plagued by rotten egg stench -- Residents in West Texas experienced another jolt early on Monday morning as a series of earthquakes shook the region, continuing a pattern of increased seismic activity and all-round strange happenings. The largest of the quakes, with a magnitude of 3.4, struck near the small town of Toyah, home to 61 people where a mysterious 100ft geyser recently sprung into the air. S While Monday's tremor caused no reported damage, it was strong enough to be felt by people in surrounding areas, sparking renewed debate about its potential causes. The town has also been subjected to a rotten egg smell that has been hanging in the air for the last two months. A huge geyser has been shooting water more than 100ft into the air which can be seen for miles around in Toyah, Texas. The site was the location of a dry well in the 1960s but hasn't been used in decades The stench came after a well that exploded sending a stream of chemical water upwards into the sky so high that it could be seen from 7 miles away in Reeves County. When the fire department arrives on scene to deal with the exploding wells and blasts of water, they're powerless with little they can do to contain the geyser. 'There's not a whole lot we can do,' said Reeves County Emergency Services Chief Ronald Lee to the Texas Tribune. 'There's nothing that we have the equipment to do.' Those living in the area are concerned the leaks and blowouts might contaminate clean water sources, not to mention the toxic chemicals being blasted into the air each time, including methane which contributes to climate change. The Railroad Commission of Texas has spent $25million to plug known orphaned wells and is about to receive an additional cash injection of $80million. Yet there appears to be no way to plug the orphaned wells before they blow with communities also not equipped to deal with them. The commission has so far plugged 737 wells which is only about 10 percent of the number of estimated orphaned wells in Texas. Part of the problem is also down to lax regulations with companies simply abandoning wells after they no longer produce oil or water rather than properly sealing them. Toyah's well, for example, is 11,331 feet deep, and was drilled in 1961 by El Paso Gas Company. It had been inactive for decades. In terms of seismic activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which monitors seismic events nationwide, Monday's quake was part of a larger trend of frequent earthquakes in Texas. Two additional, smaller tremors - a 1.3 magnitude quake near Coahoma and a 1.6 magnitude quake elsewhere in the region - were also recorded on Monday morning. Although minor, they are part of a growing number of quakes in the state. West Texas has seen a notable uptick in seismic activity over the past several years. In September, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake sent shockwaves across the state, with tremors felt as far as San Antonio and Austin. Toyah's well, for example, is 11,331 feet deep, and was drilled in 1961 by El Paso Gas Company. It had been inactive for decades. This was followed by another significant event in October, when a 3.5 magnitude quake shook the Toyah area. A shake of such magnitude can cause hanging objects to swing, but damage is unlikely to occur as a result. Experts say these stronger quakes signal a concerning rise in both the frequency and intensity of seismic events. The spike in earthquakes has led many to scrutinize the region's booming oil and gas industry, particularly practices such as fracking and wastewater disposal. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, involves injecting high-pressure fluid into underground rock formations to extract oil and gas, while wastewater from these operations is often disposed of by injecting it back into the ground. Some scientists and environmentalists believe these activities could be linked to the surge in earthquakes.

Controversial Line 5 project faces more legal action in Wisconsin - A legal challenge is expected since the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has granted key permit approvals to a Canadian energy company to reroute its controversial Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin.The DNR's approval allows Enbridge Energy to begin preparations for the rerouting project.Stephanie Tsosie, staff attorney for Earthjustice, represents the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Tribe, whose lands have been directly affected by Line 5 for years. She said Enbridge still needs federal approval to move forward with construction."This is not a foregone conclusion that Enbridge is going to have this pipeline operating," Tsosie pointed out. "There's a lot of processes, there's a lot of approvals, and this is just one of them. And we're ready to stand with the Band and figure out ways to make sure that, whatever approvals there are, that they comply with the law."She explained the current line is illegally trespassing on tribal lands. Enbridge's solution is to add 41 miles to reroute it, which would still have dire consequences in the event of an oil spill. A pending lawsuit by the tribe to have the line completely removed from its lands awaits a federal court decision which could halt the project entirely.Labor groups favor the jobs the Line 5 project could bring to the state, and industry and ag groups rely on the fossil fuels the pipeline transports. Environmental groups countered the risk of oil spills and damage to waterways and wildlife is paramount.Evan Feinauer, staff attorney for Clean Wisconsin, said the debate misses the bigger picture by ignoring the current climate threats and their generational consequences."I just hope that people can hold that long-term view in their heads and think about people beyond themselves, including people who are children today or not even born yet," Feinauer asserted. "Think about the world that they're going to have to inherit. And that includes all of our choices, including our mistakes." He added Clean Wisconsin will take legal action to challenge the DNR-issued permits for Line 5 and ask for construction to be paused until it is resolved. Enbridge said the rerouting project would create more than 700 jobs, many for tribal members, and provide millions in tax revenue to the state.

Phillips 66 faces federal charges, accused of polluting LA sewers with 790,000 gallons of wastewater - CBS Los Angeles -- Phillips 66, the massive U.S. oil and gas company, is facing federal charges for allegedly dumping hundreds of thousands of gallons of polluted wastewater into the Los Angeles County sewer system. A federal grand jury returned a six-count indictment this week charging the Houston-based corporation with two counts of negligently violating the Clean Water Act and four counts of knowingly violating the Clean Water Act, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California said Thursday. The charges were filed in connection with two spills that happened within three months of each other, when federal prosecutors allege a total of 790,000 gallons of heavily polluted wastewater was dumped into LA county sewers from the company's oil processing plant in Carson. The company responded to the criminal charges in a statement to CBS News Los Angeles Thursday. "Phillips 66 will continue its cooperation with the U.S. Attorney's office and is prepared to present its case in these matters in court," Slgi Jolissaint, a spokesperson for the company, wrote in the statement. "The company remains committed to operating safely and protecting the health and safety of our employees and the communities where we operate." Last month, Phillips 66 announced it was closing the Carson facility and the rest of its refinery in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Wilmington — blaming the shutdown on market dynamics and concerns over the "long-term sustainability" of the LA refinery. The publicly traded energy giant, which reported earnings of $7 billion in 2023, could face up to $2.4 million dollars in fines and up to five years' probation on each count if convicted of all charges, according to prosecutors. On the morning of Nov. 24, 2020, about 310,000 gallons of industrial wastewater — holding roughly 64,000 pounds of oil and grease — was released into the LA sewer system, federal prosecutors allege. It contained a concentration of oil and grease that prosecutors say is more than 300 times the amount allowed in the company's permit. The next month, the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) issued multiple notices of violations to the company for the alleged dumping of harmful amounts of oil, accusing the company of failing to notify sanitation officials about the spill. A manager at Phillips later acknowledged the incident, prosecutors say, telling LACSD that the company would "retrain operations personnel" on how to handle such spills and how to notify the sanitation districts if and when they happen. However, less than three months later, Phillips' Carson refinery dumped another 480,000 gallons of heavily polluted industrial wastewater into the public sewage system, federal prosecutors allege. The wastewater contained at least 33,700 pounds of oil and grease, according to prosecutors, and was released into the sewer system over five and a half hours on the night of Feb. 8, 2021. After that spill, LACSD issued notices of violations to Phillips and said the oil company again failed to notify sanitation officials, prosecutors said. A Phillips manager acknowledged the violation, according to federal prosecutors, and again admitted Phillips failed to notify sanitation officials. The company is expected to be arraigned in U.S. District Court in downtown Los Angeles in the coming weeks, but the local U.S. Attorney's Office has not released a date for the court hearing. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is investigating the case.

Sable Offshore to control pipeline that caused Refugio oil spill, EDC appeals decision --Sable Offshore, a Houston-based upstream company, gained approval from the Santa Barbara County Planning Commission on Oct. 30 to restart the same pipeline that caused the 2015 Refugio oil spill. Students and local organizations protested fracking after the 2015 Refugio oil spill. Nexus file photo According to the Environmental Defense Center (EDC), a legal nonprofit organization that is appealing the decision, restarting the pipeline could double Santa Barbara County’s (SBC) greenhouse gas emissions and worsen air quality. Sable Offshore did not respond to requests for comment from the Nexus. The commission voted 3-1 to transfer the ownership and permits of Pipelines CA-324, CA-325A and CA 325B, collectively known as the Santa Ynez Unit, from natural gas company Exxon Mobil to Sable. The unit runs 122 miles from the Gaviota Coast in SBC to the Pentland Delivery Point in Kern County. On Nov. 7, the EDC filed an appeal against SBC Planning Commission’s decision, stating that the decision wasn’t supported by sufficient evidence. According to the appeal letter, the Planning Commission “misconstrued the purpose of Chapter 25B of the County Code and the scope of its review” by not making the “necessary findings” to approve the transfer. Chapter 25B deals with petroleum codes for the county. EDC Staff Attorney Jeremy Frankel said that the Santa Ynez Unit was responsible for roughly half of SBC’s greenhouse gas emissions when it was operational from 1993 to 2015. The 2014 California Air Resources Board pollution map lists the Exxon Mobil Las Flores Canyon (LFC) and Pacific Offshore Pipeline Company (POPCO) facilities as major county polluters during that year. “The idea for EDC is to prevent the restart of these really dangerous facilities that would set us back on our climate goals. But for us here on the coast, you know, [restarting the pipeline] could very well lead to another catastrophic spill. And of course, the implications of the spill are enormous,” Frankel said. According to an Environmental Impact Report draft by SBC, restarting the pipeline would likely result in a spill every two years, along with a major rupture every six years due to corrosion on the pipeline. For the pipeline to restart, Sable would have to receive county permits for the onshore processing facilities and the pipeline, a waiver from the State Fire Marshal which is also underway, permits for repair work on the pipeline’s valves from the California Coastal Commission and a decommissioning bond posted to the California Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM), according to Frankel. Pipeline CA-324 — which had been corroding since its construction in the 1980s — ruptured near Refugio Beach in May of 2015 under Plains All American Pipeline ownership. Despite the initial U.S. Department of Transportation Failure Investigation Report stating that roughly 123,000 gallons of oil were spilled during the 2015 incident, a UC Santa Barbara report found it was closer to 451,000 gallons. The pipeline was closed after the spill. “[The pipelines] are really at the end of their useful lives. They were projected to be operational for about 30 years back in the 80s. Now [the pipeline] is going on 40 years,” Frankel said. According to Frankel, restarting the pipeline would make it more difficult for California to reach carbon neutrality by 2045 as outlined by Executive Order B-55-18 in 2018. “There’s a clear goal to start phasing out oil and gas, essentially off the coast. So this will just be a setback to all those really important goals,” Frankel said.

Chevron working to clean up spill that dumped more than 100 gallons of oil in San Francisco Bay - Chevron says it has contained an oil spill that contaminated the San Francisco Bay at the Richmond Wharf on Thursday, and is working to clean it up.A Chevron employee reported the spill to state authorities at 5:14 a.m. The company said less than three barrels of a diesel-based liquid leaked into the bay because of a pump failure at the Richmond Long Wharf.Caitlin Powell, a Chevron spokesperson, said the company is still trying to determine the exact time the spill began. “Chevron immediately initiated its response protocol, stopped the release, and notified all applicable agencies,” the company said in a written statement Friday. “The released material is fully contained, there are no known impacts to wildlife or the shoreline, and air monitoring found no impact to the community. The safety and health of our workforce, our communities and the environment remain our highest priorities.”State regulations require that spills of hazardous materials be reported immediately to the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. The U.S. Coast Guard, Contra Costa County, California Department of Fish and Wildlife and the Richmond Fire Department responded to Thursday’s spill. Marine Spill Response Corp. has been contracted to contain and clean up the spill. Absorbent booms were put in place to absorb the oil. Coast Guard Petty Officer Hunter Schnabel said about three barrels spilled, which is roughly 130 gallons of oil. Two barrels have been recovered. “The federal on-scene coordinator and the state on-scene coordinators went to the site where the cleanup was taking place, and there was no observable sheen anymore,” Schnabel said Friday afternoon. “They had cleaned up what they could clean up, and then the rest had either dissipated or filtered away.”A little after 3 p.m. Thursday, Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response said that it had “concluded the spill response into Richmond Wharf, but an investigation will continue.” Kristina Werner, Fish and Wildlife information officer, said that while most of the oil has already been cleaned up, the containment and absorbent measures will remain in place until they are no longer needed. She said that while no impact to wildlife or aquatic life has been found so far, the responding agencies will continue to monitor the situation.In 2021, a Chevron pipeline ruptured at the Richmond refinery, spilling nearly 800 gallons of diesel into the bay. The spill cost Chevron more than $130,000 to clean up and $70,000 in civil penalties. It left an oil sheen on the bay for three days, affecting bird and aquatic life.Last November, the refinery was slapped with four notices of violation because of a flaring event that spewed smoke for 12 hours, shrouding Richmond and parts of Marin County.Earlier this year, Chevron agreed to pay $20 million to settle fines withe Bay Area Air Quality Management District for 678 outstanding air pollution violations. Chevron is one of Richmond’s biggest polluter but also its largest taxpayer and employer, with a workforce of about 1,200 people. The city has co-existed uneasily with Chevron, which predates it. In 2012, a fire at the refinery blazed for hours, forcing thousands of people to seek treatment for breathing issues. That led to a protracted legal fight that ended in 2018, when Chevron settled with the city for $5 million, a sum many in Richmond considered low for the damage done. Recently, Chevron agreed to pay Richmond $550 million over the course of a decade, beginning next year. The company brokered the deal after the City Council had decided to put a measure on the November ballot that would have imposed a special excise tax on the refinery.

Mexico Leads Latin America Liquefaction Push as Regional LNG Capabilities Grow -Mexico is leading a push across Latin America to develop the LNG business, according to Sergio Chapa, a senior LNG analyst at Poten & Partners. “There's something of a small-scale liquefaction boom going on in Latin America right now,” said Chapa recently during the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio, TX. “Latin America is a very mountainous, geographically challenging region — it's not like the United States where you can build pipelines across half of the country — and if you want to get natural gas to customers, you've got to liquefy it, put it on trucks, put in ISO containers and get it to your end user.” Liquefaction capacity in Latin American and the Caribbean is currently around 21 million tons/year (Mt/y). There are three LNG exporters — Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico and Peru — in the region. Trinidad and Tobago leads with a liquefaction capacity of 15 Mt/y, followed by Peru with 4.5 Mt/y and Mexico at 1.4 Mt/y.

Mexico’s Ramping Exports, LNG Potential Adds Upward Momentum to U.S. Natural Gas Prices -Increased LNG exports and pipeline natural gas shipments to Mexico are likely to boost natural gas prices over the coming years, experts agreed this week at the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio. Graph showing Mexico's natural gas pipeline imports from the United States. NGI’s Henry Hub spot price hit its lowest level in 16 years on Nov. 8, dropping to $1.230/MMBtu, NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, said at the conference. He said the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.28 in 2024, with prices seeing a boost during the final six weeks of the year as a result of colder weather. “Why has pricing been so low? Basically, production,” Lenton told attendees. “For the last two years, we’ve had a very, very stable and low price environment…and production has been very strong in the U.S.”

Mexico Energy Too Risky? Rising Protectionism in the U.S.? Experts Share Cross-Border Natural Gas Vision --Mexico and the United States have become interdependent in energy. This is part of an overall trend: Mexico is now the No.1 overall trading partner of the United States across all sectors. But how will this relationship evolve with new administrations in both nations? Experts spoke on the theme last week at the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio, TX. “With the Trump administration there will be a strong push to strengthen the U.S. energy sector,” said Maricarmen Barron of the Washington, DC-based Brookings Institution think tank.

Coastal GasLink Enters Commercial Service With Estimated $14.5B Price Tag -TC Energy Corp. affiliate Coastal GasLink LP has marked the pipeline system’s launch into commercial service after finalizing an agreement with LNG Canada and other customers. (Map illustrating the network of natural gas pipelines across British Columbia, highlighting key routes and infrastructure components of the Canadian energy industry.) Coastal GasLink started moving small amounts of natural gas to LNG Canada at the end of August as the export project began to near completion. TC Energy said the commercial in-service agreement for its pipeline would allow it to collect a one-time payment of $199 million for completing the system. The sprawling 416-mile, 48-inch diameter Coastal GasLink moves natural gas across British Columbia over mountainous terrain to the 14 million tons/year (Mt/y) LNG Canada facility in Kitimat on Canada’s west coast. After five years, construction was completed in 2023 for a cost of $14.5 billion, TC Energy said Tuesday. The latest price was more than triple the original estimate.

DOE study may conclude LNG worse for climate than coal, lobbyists say - The Department of Energy is set to release a highly anticipated analysis as soon as next week on the environmental and economic impacts of natural gas exports, several people close to the process told POLITICO’s E&E News. The analysis is likely to find that U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments drive up domestic prices and are more costly to the climate than coal used in some countries where LNG is exported or could be exported, those people said. “The assumption is that a good time to release such a report would be the Friday after Thanksgiving,” said an energy lobbyist, who was granted anonymity to speak freely due to the sensitivity of the process. “I certainly don’t think they would want that [comment period] to extend onto the next administration.” DOE paused approvals of new LNG projects in January to review the environmental effects of the fuel. It emits methane, a potent greenhouse gas, when burned, leaked or released. DOE had committed to publishing the new analysis by the end of the year.

Global Natural Gas Prices Continue to Rise as Europe Measures Russian Supply Threat — LNG Recap Global natural gas prices continued a steady upward march to start the week, but avoided a drastic swing as the European market appeared to shrug off looming signs that Russian volumes through Ukraine could soon be cut. (chart showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas volumes as calculated by NGI) Over the weekend, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer disclosed that the country’s largest natural gas provider, OMV Group, would stop receiving volumes under its long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC. In the latest tit-for-tat between the Russian energy company and its former European customers, an international arbitration court recently awarded OMV more than $243 million in damages over undelivered supplies through Germany since 2022.

Why Have LNG Freight Rates Plunged, and When Will They Come Up for Air? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow.. Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations. Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI, which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing locations across North America, works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort

LNG tankers divert to Europe from Asia after Russia halts supplies to Austria's OMV - At least five cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have diverted from Asia to Europe in the past few days, drawn by higher gas prices on the continent after Russia's Gazprom halted supplies to Austria's OMV, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. On Saturday Gazprom halted supplies to top Austrian gas importer OMV after OMV threatened to impound some of the Russian state firm's gas as compensation for an arbitration it had won over a contractual dispute. Gazprom notified OMV of the planned halt on Friday, causing European gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub to surge, making it more profitable to send gas to Europe rather than Asia. "The JKM-TTF spread flipped into negative territory last week amid Russian pipeline gas supply concerns and an upcoming cold spell, which saw traders divert LNG cargoes away from Asia and towards Europe," said Laura Page, manager of gas and LNG insight at Kpler. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was trading at €46 per megawatt hour on Monday, or $14.49 per MMBtu, the highest level since Nov. 23, 2023. The Asian benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) was trading at around $14/MMBtu, LSEG data showed. Vivert City LNG tanker, which loaded a cargo from Equatorial Guinea and was heading to Bangladesh, diverted on Friday and is now heading towards Britain's South Hook terminal. Gaslog Windsor tanker, which had a cargo loaded with U.S. LNG from Sabine Pass that was initially headed to China, changed its destination on Friday towards Britain's Isle of Grain terminal. BW Lesmes tanker had a cargo loaded form Nigeria and was initially headed to China but changed direction towards Britain's Isle of Grain. "One of the main reasons ships are switching to the UK, though, is likely that the UK's terminals weren't so busy as some of the main Continental terminals, meaning there were more spare unloading slots for traders to access when they decided to divert Asian cargoes to Europe," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS. The Diamond Gas Crystal, originally headed to South Korea, has switched back and is now heading to the Dutch Gate terminal. The Flex Vigilant tanker has diverted from China and is now headed to Europe, awaiting orders. Russian gas exports through Ukraine to Europe - the main transit route for Russian gas to the EU - were stable on Monday, according to Gazprom. Ukraine has said it will not extend a gas transit deal with Russia once a five-year agreement expires at the end of the year.

U.S. LNG exports primed to jump as price arb to Europe opens wide -- United States exports of LNG to Europe are set to jump in the coming weeks after the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe's main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs. The price differential between U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures - the U.S. gas price benchmark - and the TTF gas trading facility in The Netherlands has widened by over 30% from the current 2024 average for delivery during the coming winter. That's signaling bumper profit potential for U.S. exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), who are increasing the volumes of gas flows to export facilities. The increased LNG shipments to Europe will trigger a revenue rise for the largest U.S. LNG exporters, including Cheniere LNG, TotalEnergies and Freeport LNG. But higher demand for natural gas at LNG export terminals also raises the potential for a further climb in U.S. domestic gas prices, which are already at their highest since January. That means that while U.S. LNG exporters have a strong opportunity to boost revenues, they also face the risk of reviving inflation and triggering a backlash against the export of energy products needed for power generation at home. U.S. natural gas prices are currently around 80% lower than TTF prices, giving LNG exporters the opportunity to profit from the wide price differential between the gas grades. So far in 2024, Henry Hub gas futures have averaged around $8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) less than TTF gas futures, according to LSEG. That price differential in favor of U.S. suppliers has encouraged sustained U.S. LNG exports to Europe, which have totaled around 82 MMm3 over the first 10 months of the year, according to Kpler. However, an even wider price spread is projected through the coming winter which looks set to spur even larger shipments. Forward markets from November through the end of March 2025 indicate that the Henry Hub-TTF price spread is roughly $11 per MMBtu. That's a $3 increase over the 2024 average so far, and a strong incentive for U.S. exporters to boost shipments further. Europe has bought over two-thirds of U.S. LNG shipments since 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered cuts to Russian gas pipeline flows to Europe and sparked a scramble by European gas buyers to plug supply gaps with LNG. And U.S. LNG exporters are keen to maintain market share in Europe as the cost of serving European buyers is far lower compared to customers in Asia, due to far longer journey times to buyers in Japan, China and South Korea. The roughly 12-day trip from Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland to Wilhelmshaven in Germany - a major European LNG import hub - is a third of the time of the trip to Guangdong in China, the world's largest LNG buyer. That relatively quick turnaround time means U.S. exporters will prefer to prioritize Europe over other destinations over the coming months. However, Europe's relatively strong gas prices means the continent is also prized by other sellers. LSEG forward price data indicates that TTF prices are around $2 per MMBtu higher than LNG prices based off Brent-indexed LNG contracts, which utilize the price of Brent crude oil in formulating LNG prices. That price premium in Europe has already triggered traders to divert some cargoes from other markets, with the aim of capturing the higher prices available in Europe compared to other regions. Any sustained price strength in Europe relative to other markets will spur traders with unsold cargoes from Qatar and elsewhere to focus on finding buyers in Europe. That in turn will provide stiff competition for U.S. exporters, even if U.S. sail times to Europe are roughly a week shorter compared to shipments from Qatar. However, more competition for buyers in Europe will in time serve to depress European prices, which should then erode the economics of sending LNG to Europe from distant origins. That bodes well for U.S. exporters, as long as domestic gas prices remain vastly cheaper than gas supplies in other LNG export hubs. The main risk for U.S. LNG exporters is that domestic gas prices quickly push higher, which could be triggered by the enduring strong gas demand at LNG export terminals alongside a sharp increase in domestic gas use for heating. Such a scenario could spark backlash among U.S. power consumers, who are already reeling from high inflation and could push for measures that slow the flow of U.S. natural gas to overseas consumers. That means U.S. LNG sellers may be need to be content to exploit the current open sales window to Europe, and then dial back sales volumes if domestic prices gather more upside momentum.

Egypt Seeking Long-Term LNG Deals With U.S. Companies Egypt is currently in talks with U.S. and other foreign companies to purchase long-term volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of relying on the more costly spot market, according to an exclusive Reuters report, as the country’s gas production continues to decline."The ministry (of Petroleum) is seeking three or four years of supply to hedge from sudden price increases. It is also seeking to include a flexibility clause as the government hopes it could maybe find gas sooner or doesn't need that much gas," an industry source has toldReuters.Two years ago, Egypt, the European Union, and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to boost natural gas exports to Europe, with the framework hailed as the first to allow Israel to export "significant" amounts of gas to Europe. Over the past two years, Egypt has become a significant supplier of LNG to Europe. Since 2022, the North African nation has shipped 84 cargoes of LNG to the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Poland and France.According to Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla, Egypt’s two liquefaction plants have plenty of spare capacity with the LNG plants operating at less than full capacity, "They are there prepared for the time when we make the decision to increase their capacity to double or triple," he told Reuters. Unfortunately, rising domestic demand as well as infrastructure constraints limit Egypt’s ability to quickly ramp up output.Egypt has been juggling with competing interests, trying to supply more gas to its domestic market but also attempting to increase exports in a bid to ease an acute dollar shortage. Further, how much gas Egypt can actually supply to Europe depends to a large extent on how much Israeli gas is delivered by pipeline to liquefaction plants on Egypt's Mediterranean coast before being shipped to Europe. Indeed, officials have conceded that any significant expansion in export capacity will take time with existing plants needing modifications while new production chains might need to be constructed.

Outage Forces Part of BP’s Indonesia LNG Plant Offline -An outage has forced the third train of BP’s Tangguh LNG project offline, Indonesia’s upstream regulator said on Thursday, amid rising LNG demand as Europe and Asia stock up for the winter.A trip at the third train at BP’s facility in West Papua occurred earlier this week, with operations due to restart from Saturday, Hudi Suryodipuro, a spokesperson for Indonesian regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters on Thursday.“After repairs by the BP team and startup was carried out, a leak was found in the actuator which required repair and replacement of parts,” the spokesperson told Reuters.The third train of Tangguh LNG has a processing capacity of 3.8 million metric tons per year and was commissioned in the summer of 2023. The first cargo from Tangguh Train 3was shipped in the autumn of last year.In February this year, Train 3 at Tangguh LNGwas offline for about a week, due to a broken component which had to be replaced.Tangguh LNG is a unitized development of six gas fields located in the Wiriagar, Berau, and Muturi Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) in Bintuni Bay in Indonesia.The outage at the Indonesian plant comes just as the northern hemisphere is preparing for the winter and demand for LNG is rising.In recent days, nearly a dozen LNG cargoes are said to have been diverted away from Asia and Egypt to Europe, where the benchmark natural gas price is at a premium compared to Asian spot LNG prices.European gas prices have jumped to the highest in a year, with the start of the winter heating season, a massive lull in wind speeds in northwestern Europe, a contractual dispute between Austria’s OMV and Russia’s Gazprom, and the end of the gas transit deal via Ukraine which expires on December 31, 2024. Ukraine has said that it would not pursue talks about renewing the agreement with Russia.

Russian gas flows to EU via Ukraine unchanged despite Austria row - Russia's natural gas exports through Ukraine to Europe have been stable on Thursday, Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom said, despite a contractual row with Austrian energy company OMV. Gazprom said it would send 42.4 MMm3 of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same volume it has shipped each day since Nov. 12. Russia's Gazprom halted supply to OMV on Saturday over a contractual dispute, the Vienna-based company said. It is still not clear where the gas volumes intended for OMV have been redirected. Data from transmission system operator Eustream showed that nominations, or requests, for flows to Austria from Slovakia were stable from the previous two days, but about 12% below levels seen in November before Russia halted gas supply to OMV. Nominations to the Czech Republic from Slovakia were in line with levels seen this month. Nominations into Slovakia from Ukraine were steady versus previous days on Thursday, and those for flows leaving Slovakia were also little changed, the data showed.

Ukraine prepares to end transit of Russian natural gas - Ukraine is preparing to completely end the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe as of January 1, 2025. A previous agreement that had allowed for the movement of the energy resource, albeit at a drastically reduced volume, through Ukraine’s pipelines is coming to an end. According to Energynews, Russian gas flows to Europe via its western neighbor had already dropped “from 117 billion cubic meters in 2008 to just 14.65 billion in 2023, underscoring the decline of this historical corridor.” Currently, the only active metering station of Russian gas to Ukrainian pipelines, which is located in Sudzha on Moscow’s side of the border, was taken by Kiev’s forces during Zelensky’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. On November 10, Spain’s El Pais reported that Ukraine’s military is prioritizing holding onto the territory, where it stationed two of its “best regiments,” the 95th and 80th airborne assault brigades. They are outfitted with the high-tech equipment, including German Leopard and American Abrams tanks. Meanwhile, Russian forces are continuing to advance in the Donbass region, where the Ukrainian military is facing manpower and ammunition shortages, and also working to dislodge Zelensky’s military from Kursk. Whatever the outcome at the Sudzha metering station, the official end of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe underlines the fact that the war is part of a metastasizing global conflict. One of the goals of the US—to weaken Russia as a major energy supplier to European markets through the complete decoupling of its infrastructure from Ukraine—poses dangers to Europe and threatens the eruption of open conflict within the trans-Atlantic alliance. As a result of the ending of the gas deal, Russia stands to lose $6.5 billion unless it can redirect its exports to other markets. Ukraine could see .5 percent of its GDP shaved off by totally ending its role as a transit route. The European think-tank Bruegel also noted recently that the end of the contract would open Ukrainian pipelines to targeting by Moscow’s forces. They have thus far been left undamaged due to the flow of Russian gas through them. Much of Ukraine’s electrical and power infrastructure has been crippled by the war. Last week, Zelensky’s government announced that it was imposing rolling blackouts throughout the country as winter approaches, in order to preserve what remains of the country’s power grid. Russia has offered to continue sending natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, provided a separate agreement is negotiated between Kiev and the destination countries. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on November 6 in Sochi, “Of course, in my opinion, the European countries that currently receive gas through this corridor are interested in continuing such cooperation. “We are ready to supply (gas), but not much depends on us, so probably this should be negotiated directly between the users and the country through which the transit is provided,” Novak explained. Earlier in October, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal ruled out an extension of the current gas transit agreement during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Western Ukraine. “Ukraine once again says it will not continue the transit agreement with Russia after it expires,” Shmyhal told reporters, adding, “Ukraine’s strategic goal is to deprive the Kremlin of profits from the sale of hydrocarbons which the aggressor uses to finance the war.”

Russia's Yamal LNG resumes ship-to-ship transfers near Murmansk --Russia's Yamal LNG project resumed ship-to-ship transfer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) near the port of Murmansk in order to free up ice-class tankers, according to LSEG data. The scheme is used during the winter season, which has just started, when the movement of conventional vessels along the Northern Sea route is restricted by thick ice. LSEG data showed that an ice class Arc 7 tanker called Nikolay Urvantsev was readying to transfer LNG to a conventional gas carrier Wen Cheng near the island of Kildin in the Barents Sea for further exports. Wen Cheng was built in 2023 at Chinese shipyard Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding.

Russia Crude Exports Tumble To Two Month Low - Russian crude oil shipments dropped to a two-month low as loadings from Russia’s Western ports slumped, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. In the four weeks to November 17, Russian crude oil exports by sea dipped to 3.28 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week average to November 10, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. The decline in exports was the biggest since the end of July. Daily crude flows in the week to Nov. 17 slumped by about 740,000 barrels to 2.83 million, dropping to their lowest since the first seven days of July. The decline was driven by lower flows from the country’s Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic ports, while shipments from the Pacific remained unchanged. A total of 26 tankers loaded 19.8 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 17, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down sharply from a revised 24.98 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week. The weekly decline was mostly the result of a 30% slump in shipments from Russia’s export terminals on the Baltic and Black Seas. It could have been the result of increased refining rates in the second week of November, which left lower volumes of crude available for exports, according to Bloomberg. In October, as available refinery capacity in Russia dipped, crude oil shipments hit a four-month high, as heavy domestic refinery maintenance left more crude available for export. Russia exported on average 3.47 million bpd of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, Bloomberg data showed at the time.

Russia gives North Korea a million barrels of oil, report finds - Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil since March this year, according to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Centre, a non-profit research group based in the UK.The oil is payment for the weapons and troops Pyongyang has sent Moscow to fuel its war in Ukraine, leading experts and UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, have told the BBC.These transfers violate UN sanctions, which ban countries from selling oil to North Korea, except in small quantities, in an attempt to stifle its economy to prevent it from further developing nuclear weapons.The satellite images, shared exclusively with the BBC, show more than a dozen different North Korean oil tankers arriving at an oil terminal in Russia’s Far East a total of 43 times over the past eight months.Further pictures, taken of the ships at sea, appear to show the tankers arriving empty, and leaving almost full.North Korea is the only country in the world not allowed to buy oil on the open market. The number of barrels of refined petroleum it can receive is capped by the United Nations at 500,000 annually, well below the amount it needs.Russia’s foreign ministry did not respond to our request for comment. The first oil transfer documented by the Open Source Centre in a new report, was on 7 March 2024, seven months after it first emerged Pyongyang was sending Moscow weapons.The shipments have continued as thousands of North Korean troops are reported to have been sent to Russia to fight, with the last one recorded on 5 November.“While Kim Jong Un is providing Vladimir Putin with a lifeline to continue his war, Russia is quietly providing North Korea with a lifeline of its own,” says Joe Byrne from the Open Source Centre.“This steady flow of oil gives North Korea a level of stability it hasn’t had since these sanctions were introduced.”Four former members of a UN panel responsible for tracking the sanctions on North Korea have told the BBC the transfers are a consequence of increasing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.“These transfers are fuelling Putin’s war machine – this is oil for missiles, oil for artillery and now oil for soldiers,” says Hugh Griffiths, who led the panel from 2014 to 2019.UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has told the BBC in a statement: “To keep fighting in Ukraine, Russia has become increasingly reliant on North Korea for troops and weapons in exchange for oil."He added that this was “having a direct impact on security in the Korean peninsula, Europe and Indo-Pacific".

India unlikely to reduce crude oil cargoes from Russia under Trump administration - India is unlikely to cut back on its crude oil sourcing from Russia under the Trump administration owing to the healthy price arbitrage of procuring barrels from the erstwhile Soviet Union. “India is unlikely to trim its purchases of Russian crude under a new Donald Trump government, though it might explore more term import contracts and collaboration on storage with the US,” S&P Global Commodity Insights. Russia accounts for roughly 38-40 per cent of India’s cumulative crude oil imports. The South Asian country, which imports as much as 85 per cent of its needs, has pledged to continue buying oil from the cheapest available sources to meet its growing demand, and Russian oil falls in that category due to attractive discounts, S&P added. “India has been taking a stand to buy cheaper crude wherever available, and I don’t foresee the US offering their typical crude priced lower than Russian oil. Hence a drastic shift is less likely,” said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights. The average discount of Russian Urals to Dated Brent was $12.129 per barrel in August, $12.30 in September and $12.189 in October, fluctuating within a narrow range, according to Platts, which is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. “A few years ago, India held discussions with the US to cooperate on emergency crude oil reserves, which included the possibility of buying and storing US oil in US strategic petroleum reserves, and shipping it to India, when necessary, but that plan has not moved forward,” S&P projected. S&P Global Commodity Insights pointed out that the share of the US in India’s crude oil imports have been declining. In January-September 2024, India’s imports of Russian crude averaged 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), making the non-OPEC producer the country’s biggest supplier. The US was the fifth-largest supplier, accounting for 215,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the same nine-month period, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS). The US crude share in India rose to as high as 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. The majority of US crude exports to India consisted of light grades, predominantly WTI, with nearly 50 per cent previously discharged for Reliance Industries until 2021. However, since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, purchases from the US have fallen behind, as Russian crude now accounts for over 40 per cent of India’s imports, according to data from CAS. Commodity Insights expects the US share of India’s total crude imports to maintain a range of 5-6 per cent in the near term, as US crude has solidified its presence in Europe. The recent availability of cheap Russian crude has shifted the dynamics away from the US grades. Notably, the Reliance refinery, along with many other Indian refineries, possesses a high complexity index, allowing a relatively easy transition between these crude grades. As a result, the shift from US grades to Russian grades was relatively easy, Ranjan said. “However, India may revert back to increasing its imports from the US, should sanctions on Russian crude tighten or the price dynamics favour US crudes, although this appears less likely in our base case,” he added. Commodity Insights expects Platts Dated Brent to average $81 per barrel in 2024, but the market remains volatile at present. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East and other uncertainties, Commodity Insights sees an easing of Platts Dated Brent to the lower $70 b/d in 2025, owing to expected production increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+, coupled with a subdued global oil demand growth.

Egypt's fuel imports reaches $12.5B during period from January to October 2024 – EgyptToday - Egypt’s fuel imports reached over $12.5 billion during the first ten months of this year, up from $10.5 billion in the same period last year, a 19 percent increase, according to a government official speaking to Al Arabiya Business. The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) secured fuel imports worth nearly $2 billion in October alone to meet market demands for petroleum products across various sectors. From January to October, petroleum products accounted for approximately $7 billion of the total import cost, with the remaining amount covering crude oil, fuel oil, coal, and other imports for the petroleum and gas sectors. The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources plans to delay part of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fuel oil imports scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year, rescheduling delivery for the first quarter of 2025. Fuel imports currently represent 30-35 percent of Egypt’s petroleum product consumption. The Ministry aims to reduce this share starting in 2025 by relying more on local production. To support this goal, the Ministry secures fuel needs through direct external contracts, including spot, medium-term, and annual agreements. To further bolster the sector, the Ministry recently introduced a range of incentives for international oil companies operating in Egypt, encouraging new investments to overcome challenges, accelerate development, and boost oil and gas production for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Deepwater Discoveries Set To Reshape Africa's Energy Landscape - Africa's deepwater oil and gas production is expected to increase significantly in the coming decade, driven by new discoveries and projects. Recent successes in Namibia and Cote d'Ivoire have spurred interest in deepwater exploration across the continent. Challenges such as security concerns and fiscal incentives need to be addressed to fully unlock Africa's deepwater potential. Africa’s deepwater segment has always played a key role in terms of adding significant discovered volumes, which has helped Africa sustain its hydrocarbon production. The contribution of this segment in Africa’s hydrocarbon production mix was between 20- 25% last decade and is expected to increase between 35-40% by 2035. From the under-construction and pre-FID projects, Rystad Energy estimates that there will be about 3.5 million boepd of new deepwater supply (pre-FID and under-construction projects) in Africa by 2035. Success in countries such as Namibia and Cote d’Ivoire have triggered substantial interest in exploring the deep waters, and many more countries such as Sao Tome & Principe, Liberia and Sierra Leone are also becoming important countries for companies to secure acreages for exploration efforts in the medium and long term. In terms of deepwater resource sanctioning, Africa saw a surge in sanctioning between 2015 and 2019 on a rolling 5-year period, as various discoveries, such as Eni’s Zohr in Egypt and TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project, expected to produce from Golfinho and Atum discoveries in Area 1, in Mozambique were sanctioned. Post-COVID-19, the continent has had a muted period of deepwater sanctioning activity, with the average annual deepwater resources sanctioned between 2015-19 dropping to about 330 million boe, compared to an annual average of close to 1890 million boe in 2015-19. However, thanks to the recent success in Namibia and progress in other discovered projects such as Area 4 in Mozambique, further phases of Baleine development in Cote d’Ivoire, and several projects in Nigeria, Africa is at the cusp of a new wave of deepwater sanctioning activity. If project timelines follow through, Africa could see annual average deepwater resource sanctioning activity surpassing 2 billion boe in the 2025-29 period. The continent hosts the potential to take the number above 3 billion boe. However, such projects would probably need more fiscal incentives and, in some cases, an improvement in the security situation for associated facilities onshore. Further, prioritization by Majors of the most lucrative projects in their portfolios, as they plan for an uncertain future, would also define the trajectory of such projects. However, some of the gas projects can be secured further by advancing various gas-to-power projects within the continent, such that electricity access rates also improve significantly.

Iraq’s oil exports decline in October - (IraqiNews.com) – Under pressure from OPEC to reduce output in accordance with its quota of 3.905 million barrels per day, including anticipated compensation, Iraq’s oil exports declined for the second month in a row. Data from Iraq Gulf Terminals revealed that OPEC’s second-largest producer delivered 3.24 million barrels of oil per day in October, mostly to China and India, a 3.28 percent decline on a monthly basis, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the most recent Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Iraq’s oil output in October was 4.14 million barrels per day, lower than September levels but still over its OPEC+ limit of 3.905 million barrels per day. Last month, 41 percent of Iraq’s seaborne exports, or 1.34 million barrels per day, were shipped to China, which purchased 34.03 million barrels of medium crude and 7.7 million barrels of heavy crude. During the same period, 28 percent of Iraq’s oil exports were shipped to India, which imported 16.27 million barrels of heavy crude and 11.95 million barrels of medium crude. China has made significant investments in the Gulf States to meet its domestic energy demands and is often among the largest consumers of Iraqi crude. In October, Iraq’s oil exports to the US, Greece, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey declined on a monthly basis.

India’s Petroleum Imports Rise 7.7% in FY 2024-25 - India's petroleum imports grew by 7.7% during April-October FY 2024-25, driven by increased demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petcoke, and lubricants, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). However, October 2024 recorded a slight 2.2% dip in imports compared to the same month last year. Crude oil imports rose by 3.5% in the first seven months of FY 2024-25 and by 4.2% in October 2024 year-on-year. The net import bill for October 2024 stood at $10.6 billion, down from $11.8 billion in October 2023, thanks to reduced global crude prices, which averaged $75.66 per barrel in October 2024 compared to $91.05 a year earlier. Domestic Crude Production and Refinery Output Domestic crude oil production continued to face challenges, declining by 4.9% year-on-year in October 2024 to 2.4 million metric tons (MMT). Oil India Limited (OIL) contributed 0.3 MMT.. ONGC produced 1.6 MMT, and private operators added 0.5 MMT. In contrast, Indian refineries processed 21.3 MMT of crude in October 2024, a 3.6% increase from the previous year. Public Sector Units handled 14.1 MMT, while private refiners processed 7.2 MMT. Cumulative crude processing during April-October FY 2024-25 rose by 2%.Petroleum Production and Consumption Petroleum product output in October 2024 climbed 5.2% year-on-year to 23 MMT, led by diesel, which accounted for 41% of production. Motor spirit (16.8%), aviation turbine fuel (6.6%), and LPG (4.5%) were other key contributors.

China crude oil imports set for November rebound, but it's price not demand (Reuters) - China's crude imports are on track to rebound in November to the highest in three months, but the increasing appetite of the world's largest oil importer is more about price than rising demand. Crude oil arrivals may reach around 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the most since August and the third-highest month so far in 2024, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler and LSEG Oil Research. If the final outcome for November is in line with the forecasts, it will be the highest monthly imports since August's official figure of 11.56 million bpd, and the third-strongest month so far this year. However, assuming the increase in crude imports is because of a recovery in demand may be optimistic, given China's refinery throughput remains weak and economic indicators continue to show the world's second-biggest economy is struggling for growth momentum. More likely the increase in November imports is down to price, with refiners taking advantage of the weakening prices at a time when cargoes arriving this month would have been arranged. Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped to their lowest level for 33 months in early September, trading as low as $68.68 a barrel on Sept. 10. The price had been trending lower since early July, when it reached as high as $87.95 a barrel amid rising tensions in the Middle East and the decision by the OPEC+ group of exporters to defer a planned increase in production. The lag between when cargoes are bought and physically delivered to China ranges from about six weeks to three months, depending on where the oil is sourced from. This means that crude arriving in November was secured at a time when oil prices were hitting the lowest levels in almost three years. China's refiners have in the past shown that they will buy more crude than they need when they deem prices to be low, and cut back on imports when they view prices as having risen too high, or gained too rapidly. This dynamic has been apparent in China's imports of crude oil so far in 2024, with arrivals declining by 420,000 bpd in the first 10 months of the year, with much of the weakness coming after crude prices rallied strongly in the second quarter. Since the September low crude prices have recovered somewhat, reaching above $80 a barrel in early October before settling into a range largely between $70 and $75, ending at $73.10 on Wednesday. The steady prices may suggest that Chinese refiners will be happy to buy crude volumes sufficient to meet their needs, rather than purchase surplus oil to store for later processing. However, the election of Donald Trump to a second term as U.S. president may alter the calculations of Chinese buyers, especially those who purchase Iranian crude.

Aramco to Take on More Debt, Says CFO -- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to take on more debt and will focus on “value and growth” for its dividend, the company’s finance chief said. “You’ll see us do a couple of things. One is, just take on more debt compared to use of equity,” Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed said in an interview in Boston. “It’s nothing to do with the dividend, it is optimizing our capital structure so that we end up with a lower weighted average cost of capital.” Saudi Aramco tapped debt investors earlier this year when it sold $6 billion of dollar-denominated bonds in June, followed by about $3 billion of Islamic dollar notes in September. The company had been absent from the debt markets since 2021. “We had the luxury of sitting out those three years until the market became conducive,” Al-Murshed said. The state-owned oil producer is a vital component of the Saudi Arabian economy, with its crude sales and generous payouts helping fund Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s multitrillion-dollar spending plans. However, it’s been hit by a slump in crude prices this year, while its oil production is near the lowest level in three years. Saudi Aramco increased its dividend by 4 percent in each of the past two years, and is now paying more than $81 billion of base dividends, Al-Murshed said. “We’re looking for it to be progressive over the years,” he said, adding that the company’s free cash flow covers that. The company’s debt sales will be “regular but not too frequent,” its CFO said, adding that it has no plans to sell more debt for the remainder of 2024. “We want to be active, but we don’t want to be too active,” he said. One reason for the company to sell debt will be to widen its investor base, he said. Al-Murshed didn’t specify whether Saudi Aramco would borrow to support its dividend spending, which is set to hit $124 billion this year, exceeding earnings. That resulted in Saudi Aramco recording a net debt position in the third quarter, the first time since the third quarter of 2022. Just a year ago, the firm had over $27 billion in net cash. Its dividend is made up of two parts — a base payment of $20.3 billion a quarter that takes up about 95% of free cash flow, and a performance-linked portion that is set at $10.8 billion each quarter this year. From next year onward, the special component is set to be paid as a percentage of residual free cash flow after spending on dividends and investments, CFO Al-Murshed said. “When we close the books for 2024, we’ll plug in that formula and whatever the number is, we will aim to distribute that,” he said. Saudi Aramco’s gearing ratio — or net debt to equity — of about 2 percent is low compared to peers. The company isn’t targeting a specific ratio, Al-Murshed said. “You’ll see our gearing ratio go up and come down across the cycles,” he said.

Crude oil gains on escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict - The Hindu BusinessLine -- Crude oil futures traded higher on Monday morning due to the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At 9.37 am on Monday, January Brent oil futures were at $71.39, up by 0.49 per cent, and January crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $67.24, up by 0.48 per cent.November crude oil futures were trading at ₹5676 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹5669, up by 0.12 per cent, and December futures were trading at ₹5700 against the previous close of ₹5679, up by 0.37 per cent.On Sunday, Russia launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. Quoting officials, a Reuters report said Russia attacked Ukraine with 120 missiles and 90 drones killing at least seven people. This attack damaged the power system in Ukraine, it said. Meanwhile, another Reuters report said that the US has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike Russia. Quoting sources, it said Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days. However, the sources did not reveal details due to operational security concerns.Sunday’s strikes on Ukraine and reports of US allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons have raised concerns over possible crude oil supply disruptions from the area. Russia is one of the major producers of crude oil in the global market.The recent reports of decline in China’s refinery throughput limited further increase in the price of the commodity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, refiners in that country processed around 14.02 million barrels a day of crude oil in October 2024 against 15.05 million barrels a day in October 2023. China had processed 14.3 million barrels a day of crude oil in September 2024.China is a major consumer of crude oil in the global market. Decline in demand for the commodity in this country makes an impact on its prices. November natural gas futures were trading at ₹247.30 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹237.50, up by 4.13 per cent.

News of a Halted Oil Output at Norway's Johan Sverdrup Oilfield - The oil market rallied higher on Monday as Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend and news of halted oil output at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield. The crude market posted an outside trading day as it posted a low of $66.61 on the opening and remained well supported throughout the session as it rallied to a high of $69.39 in the afternoon. The market bounced off its low amid a reversal in the U.S.’ policy that will allow Ukraine to use U.S. made weapons to strike in Russia. The Kremlin said that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by U.S. President Biden’s administration. The market extended its gains further following the news that Equinor halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield due to an onshore power outage. The market extended its gains to $2.37 as it rallied to a high of $69.39 ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up $2.14 at $69.16 and the January WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $69.17. The December/January WTI spread flipped into contango for the first time since February as WTI for January delivery traded above the December contract, signaling an oversupply. Meanwhile, the Brent contract settled up $2.26 at $73.30. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.05 cents at $2.2514 and the RB market settling up 6.9 cents at $2.0183. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has lifted restrictions that had blocked Ukraine from using U.S.-provided weapons to strike in Russian territory, in a significant change to U.S. policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days. The change follows Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv. Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by President Biden’s administration to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russia, which it said would draw the United States directly into the conflict. Russia has been warning the West for months about how it would interpret such a decision, saying it would raise the risk of a confrontation with the U.S.-led NATO alliance.Equinor halted the output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield due to a power outage. An Equinor spokesperson said work was underway to re-establish production but it was not immediately clear when it would resume. The outage was caused by smoke developing in an onshore electricity converter station which sends power to phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup development.Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed that Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell to 8.975 million bpd in September from 8.992 million bpd in August. It also reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in September increased to 5.751 million bpd from 5.671 million bpd in August.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 291,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 22^nd, raising available refining capacity by 316,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 170,000 bpd in the week ending November 29^th.Citgo Petroleum Corp reported operating conditions have made flaring necessary at the 165,000 bpd Corpus Christi East plant in Texas.

Oil prices rise over 3% on Sverdrup outage, Ukraine war escalation - (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday after news that crude production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted, which added to earlier gains stemming from escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude futures settled at $73.30 a barrel, gaining $2.26, or 3.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $69.16 a barrel, rising $2.14, or 3.2%.Equinor said it had halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe's largest, due to an onshore power outage. Work to restart production was under way, an Equinor spokesperson said, but it was not immediately clear when it would resume.Oil prices extended their gains on the outage news, which indicated a possible tightening of the North Sea crude market, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters. Physical supply of crude oil from the North Sea underpins the Brent futures complex.Kazakhstan's biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by U.S. major Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, has reduced oil output by 28%-30% due to ongoing repairs, helping to further tighten global supplies. Repairs were expected to be complete by Saturday, the country's energy ministry said.Prices also climbed as Russia's war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend.In a significant reversal of Washington's policy, President Joe Biden's administration allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday.The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by Biden's administration, having previously warned that such a decision would raise the risk of a confrontation with the U.S.-led NATO alliance."Biden allowing Ukraine to strike Russian forces around Kursk with long-range missiles might see a geopolitical bid come back into oil, as it is an escalation of tensions there in response to North Korean troops entering the fray," IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.There has been little impact on Russian oil exports so far, however oil prices could rise further if Ukraine targets more oil infrastructure, said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee.Russia unleashed its largest airstrike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to the country's power system.Brent and WTI fell more than 3% last week due to weak data on China's refinery run rates, and after the International Energy Agency forecast that global oil supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025, even if output cuts remain in place from OPEC+.Traders began shifting WTI trades to the January contract ahead of the expiration of the December contract on Wednesday. The spread between the two contracts flipped for the first time since February into a contango structure, where the later contract traded higher than the front-month contract, meaning traders expected price to rise.

Oil prices ease, caution prevails over Russia-Ukraine war Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after the previous day's rally driven by halted production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, but investors remained cautious amid fears of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude futures for January delivery slipped 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $73.37 a barrel by 0119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery were at $69.23 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent. The more active WTI January contract fell 4 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $69.21, reports Reuters. Both benchmarks climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday. "Some position adjustments kicked in after Monday's rally," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. "But investors stayed wary, assessing the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war after the weekend's escalation," he said. Russia unleashed its largest airstrike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to the country's power system. In a significant reversal of Washington's policy, President Joe Biden's administration allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday. The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by the Biden administration, having previously warned that such a decision would raise the risk of a confrontation with the US-led NATO alliance. Meanwhile, supply concerns persisted due to production issues at some oilfields. Norway's Equinor halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield, Western Europe's largest, due to an onshore power outage, the company said on Monday. Work to restart production was underway, an Equinor spokesperson said, but it was not immediately clear when it would resume. Kazakhstan's biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by US major Chevron, has reduced oil output by 28% to 30% due to ongoing repairs, helping to further tighten global supplies. Repairs were expected to be complete by Saturday, the country's energy ministry said. Traders began shifting WTI trades to the January contract ahead of the expiration of the December contract on Wednesday. WTI flipped to contango for the first time since February on Monday, with January delivery trading at a premium to the December contract in a sign that supply tightness was easing.

Oil Slides On UN Report Stating Iran Agrees To Halt Near Bomb-Grade Uranium Production --Oil prices are falling Tuesday on the headline that Iran has agreed to cease producing uranium which is enriched at near nuclear bomb grade levels. Israeli and Western officials have long been worried that the more than year-long Gaza war, alongside the recent-tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv, have accelerated the Islamic Republic's push to achieve a nuke. "Iran began enriching uranium at up to 60% levels in 2021," Bloomberg reviews of what has put UN inspectors on edge. "That material could quickly be upgraded to the 90% level typically used in nuclear weapons, prompting concern across Europe and the U.S. Iran still has enough fuel on hand to produce a handful of warheads, should its leadership make a political decision to move forward," the report continues. But then a key line based on a 12-page IAEA report: Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that Iran has begun implementing measures "aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile," according to a 12-page report seen by Bloomberg News. The Islamic Republic’s engineers have already taken the first steps necessary to cap output, the report said. Could this be the Trump effect happening in real time? Tehran has expressed willingness to work with the incoming Trump administration, and is of course fully aware that some pro-Israel hawks have already been placed in key positions (most notably Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, and Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel). But some top Iranian officials are still waiving the nuclear threat around... Ayatollah Khamenei's top advisor, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, says that Iran can achieve Nuclear Deterrence in 24 hours, while our enemies predicted that it will take us 48 hours pic.twitter.com/RfLK7p9oVW The reality is that Tehran knows that Trump will carry a big stick, and will be more willing to give Israel a wide berth for conducing offensive action against the Islamic Republic. Tehran could now be trying to show President-elect Trump that it's taking serious steps to deescalate things.

The Oil Market Weighed the News of Norway’s Oilfield Restarting Operations -- The oil market on Tuesday weighed the news of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield restarting operations and reports of Iran offering to cap its uranium stocks against concerns over the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The oil market erased some of Monday’s gains and posted a low of $68.45 following the news that Equinor resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field, the day after a power outage caused it to shut down. The market also came under pressure after reports by the U.N.’s IAEA said that Iran offered to stop expanding its stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity. However, the market, which tested its support at its low, bounced higher and traded to a high of $69.67 by mid-morning on news that Ukraine for the first time used U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory on Tuesday, with Russia describing the attack as a Western escalation. Also, Russia’s President approved an updated nuclear doctrine, lowering a threshold for a possible nuclear strike. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract ended the session up 23 cents at $69.39 and the January Brent contract settled up 1 cent at $73.31. The product markets ended mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 1.12 cents at $2.2402 and the RB market settling up 1.94 cents at $2.0377. HSBC said it expects OPEC+ to announce another three-month extension of the cuts until April 2025. It said OPEC’s three month extension would reduce the scale of the potential oversupply of oil in 2025. It said a longer extension cannot be ruled out but does not solve the spare capacity overhang.Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia will treat an attack by a non-nuclear state that is supported by a country with nuclear capabilities as a joint attack by both. The decision to change Russia’s official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin’s response to a reported decision by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to fire American long-range missiles into Russia. The updated doctrine, which outlines the threats which would make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike, said an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft could be considered to meet these criteria. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said any aggression against Russia by a state which was a member of a coalition would be considered by Moscow to be aggression against it by the whole coalition. Separately, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said attacks on Russia’s Bryansk region by Ukraine with U.S. missiles was a clear signal that the West wanted to escalate the conflict. He said he hoped Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, in which President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, would be attentively read.A White House National Security Council spokesperson said the United States was not surprised by Russia’s announced change in its nuclear doctrine and does not plan to adjust its own nuclear posture in response. Meanwhile, a U.S. official said Ukraine has used U.S.-made ATACMS rockets inside Russia for the first time.Equinor has resumed partial production from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage, reaching two-thirds of capacity by mid-morning on Tuesday. On Monday, Equinor halted output from the oilfield due to an onshore power outage that disrupted electricity supply to the platforms. Equinor was working to resume its full output.

Oil settles flat as escalation of Ukraine war counters Sverdrup field restart (Reuters) - Oil prices were broadly unchanged on Tuesday as signs of escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war kept investors cautious of supply disruptions, but the partial restart of production in Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield limited gains.Brent crude futures rose by a cent to settle at $73.31 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.3%, or 23 cents, to close at $69.39 a barrel. For the first time, Ukraine used U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory on Tuesday, Moscow said. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov described the attack as a Western escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike."This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.Market watchers also pointed to signs of higher crude oil purchases by top importer China. China's crude imports are on track to end November at or close to all-time highs, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said, referencing data from vessel tracker Kpler.Weak imports by China so far this year have weighed heavily on oil prices, pulling Brent futures down 20% from their April peak of over $92 a barrel. China's crude oil imports in October fell from a year earlier for the sixth straight month. China likely stepped up oil purchases this month as current prices offer relatively good value, Hodes said. Limiting oil's ascent, Equinor resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, Western Europe's largest oilfield, the day after a power outage there contributed to a 3% surge in oil price benchmarks.The restart and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on market sentiment on Tuesday, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Oil prices also came under pressure after confidential reports by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, seen by Reuters, said Iran has offered to stop expanding its stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity, near the roughly 90% of weapons grade.U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.75 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, market sources said on Tuesday citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute.Analysts polled by Reuters on average expect to see a smaller build of around 100,000 barrels.

WTI Dips After Small Crude Build, US Production Tumbles Crude prices are extending recent gains this morning - albeit modestly - as geopolitical risk premia are rebuilding amid missiles flying in Russia, MidEast tensions continuing, and Biden seems set on WW3 as his legacy. Last night's API report showed a larger than expected crude inventory build and traders are on the lookout for whether a contango market structure is here to stay after the WTI prompt spread dipped into negative territory this week for the first time since February, signaling near-term oversupply. API:

• Crude +4.75mm
• Cushing -288k
• Gasoline -2.48mm
• Distillates -688k

DOE

• Crude +545k (-620k exp)
• Cushing -140k
• Gasoline +2.05mm
• Distillates -114k

The official DOE data was very different from the API reported data with a small crude build and large gasoline build. This is the third straight weekly crude build and the biggest gasoline build since early September...Graphics Source: Bloomberg The Biden admin added 1.4mm barrels to the SPR last week - the biggest addition since August - making its the fifth straight week of total crude stocks rising... US Crude production plunged by 200k b/d and does not look hurricane-related... WTI dipped after the data...

Oil steady as Ukraine escalation offsets US crude, gasoline stock build - Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as the escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine offset a rise in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks. Brent crude futures for January were down 4 cents, or 0.05%, at $73.27 a barrel by 10:43 a.m. EDT (1543 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December, due to expire on Wednesday, were up 26 cents, or 0.37%, at $69.65, while the more active WTI contract for January was up 2 cents, or 0.03%, at $69.26. U.S. crude stocks and gasoline inventories rose and distillate stockpiles fell in the week ending Nov. 15, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels last week, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 138,000-barrel rise. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels to 208.9 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 900,000-barrel build. The escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine and subsequent concern around potential oil supply disruptions have kept a floor under prices this week. This has put geopolitical risk back in the market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Wednesday. “However, the concerns over additional sanctions or disruptions of Russian fuel or crude oil supplies appear misguided,” Hodes added, pointing to strong Russian fuel exports. Long positions in WTI have declined significantly despite the added geopolitical risk, according to Aegis Hedging associate Christian Drolshagen, with hedge funds holding only 50% of summer levels, per CFTC data. “We may expect (Brent) oil prices to stay supported above the $70 level for now, as market participants continue to monitor the geopolitical developments,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. On Tuesday, Ukraine used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, Moscow said, while Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the bar for a possible nuclear attack. “The price action in the oil market has been relatively uneventful post-U.S. election, with some pick-up in the past couple of days due to a temporary production outage in the North Sea and a further escalation in the nature of the confrontationin Ukraine,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group. Norway’s Equinor on Wednesday said it had restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage. Equinor last month said the field was producing at peak capacity of around 755,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Weighing on prices on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said in a televised speech that his group had reviewed and given feedback on a U.S.-drafted ceasefire proposal to end fighting with Israel, and that a halt to hostilities was now in Israel’s hands. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month but make shallower cuts in 2025 than expected just a month ago due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, according to most economists in a Reuters poll. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.

Builds Reported in Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks - On its last day as the spot contract, the December WTI contract ended the session lower as the market weighed the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine against the builds reported in crude oil and gasoline stocks. In overnight trading, the crude market dismissed the API report, which showed a build in crude stocks of over 4 million barrels on the week, and continued to trend higher in overnight trading on concerns that the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine could potentially disrupt oil supply from Russia. The crude market traded to a high of $70.15 and traded mostly sideways ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. The market, however, erased its gains and sold off to a low of $68.75 ahead of the close. The December WTI contract went off the board down 52 cents at $68.87. The January Brent contract settled down 50 cents at $72.81. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.39 cents at $2.2263 and the RB market settled up 81 points at $2.0458. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil imports increased by 1.175 million bpd in the week ending November 15^th to 7.684 million bpd. U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil imports increased by 602,000 bpd to 2.002 million bpd last week, the highest since July 2020. U.S. distillate stocks fell by 114,000 barrels on the week to 114.3 million barrels, with stocks in the Midwest falling by 400,000 barrels on the week to 25.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks increased by 2.054 million barrels on the week, with a build of 1 million barrels in the Midwest.Equinor restored full output capacity at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following an outage and is now producing steadily at normal levels. Output was halted on Monday due to an onshore outage that disrupted electricity supply to the platforms. Early on Tuesday, Equinor said two-thirds of oil output capacity was restored and added that production returned to full capacity later in the day on Tuesday.Sources and analysts said OPEC+ will have little room to maneuver on oil policy when it meets in December, as it would be risky to increase output due to weak demand and difficult to deepen supply cuts because some members want to produce more. According to three OPEC+ sources, the group may continue to push back output increases when it meets on December 1^st due to weak global oil demand.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 484,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 22^nd, raising available refining capacity by 123,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 145,000 bpd in the week ending November 29^th. The United States vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza. The 15-member council voted on a resolution put forward by 10 non-permanent members that called for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the 13-month conflict and separately demanded the release of hostages. Robert Wood, deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said Washington had made clear it would only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of hostages as part of a ceasefire.

Oil settles down on strong US supply, losses capped by Ukraine escalation - -Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose by more than expected last week, but losses were capped by worries about the intensifying war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures for January settled down 50 cents, or 0.68%, at $72.81. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December expired on Wednesday, and settled down 52 cents, or 0.75%, at $68.87, while the more active WTI contract for January settled down 49 cents, or 0.71% at $68.75. U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, which weighed on prices. Further boosting supply, Norway's Equinor said it had restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage. Weak demand in the world's largest crude importer continued, with Chinese stimulus announcements failing to boost oil demand growth in the near-term, Macquarie energy strategists said in a note. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and concern around future oil supply disruptions helped keep a floor under prices. "These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, the latest Western weapon it has been permitted to use on Russian targets a day after it fired U.S. ATACMS missiles. This has put geopolitical risk back in the market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Wednesday. But long positions in WTI have declined significantly despite the added geopolitical risk, according to Aegis Hedging associate Christian Drolshagen, with hedge funds holding only 50% of summer levels, per CFTC data. Elsewhere, the U.S. on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, buoying oil prices' war risk premium on concerns around potential supply disruptions as war in the Middle East continues. "The market is very nervous something could happen with another escalation between the Israelis and Iranians," said Again Capital's Kilduff. "Everyone is focused on Trump and U.S. producers being let loose, but the flip side of that is that sanctions are definitely back in the market as far as what happens next with Iranian supplies and its ability to export," he added. Global supply could be further squeezed, with OPEC potentially set to push back output increases again when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demand, according to three OPEC sources familiar with the discussions.

The Oil Market Trended Higher as the Conflict Between Ukraine and Russia Escalated -- The oil market on Thursday continued to trend higher as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalated further. The market posted a low of $68.86 in overnight trading before it retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $72.41 to a low of $66.53 and slightly breached a trendline at $70.31 as it posted a high of $70.38 early on Thursday. The oil market was well supported after Ukraine said Russia fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile on a Ukrainian city on Thursday. However, the market later gave up some of its gains as the claims of Russia using an intercontinental ballistic missile was denied. Russia’s President said the country launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile while also warning that Russia could strike any country whose weapons were used against Russia. The January WTI contract traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and settled up $1.35 cents at $70.10. The January Brent contract settled up $1.42 at $74.23. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.81 cents at $2.2744 and the RB market settling up 1.36 cents at $2.0594. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia had launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility and warned the West that Russia could strike the military installations of any country whose weapons were used against Russia. He said the West was escalating the conflict in Ukraine by allowing Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range missiles and that the conflict was becoming a global conflict. Earlier on Thursday, Kyiv’s air force said Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro that targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure, in what would be the first use in war of a weapon designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes. The launch, if confirmed, highlights increasing tensions in the war after Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Russia that it would see such action as a major escalation. A U.S. official said Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile, not an ICBM, during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday.According to news agency Interfax, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Russian air defenses shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.A record 71.7 million people are expected to travel by car over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, 1.3 million more than just a year ago, according to U.S. auto club AAA. The national average price for regular gasoline stands at $3.07 per gallon nearly 20 cents less than the price seen a year ago.According to the EPA, the United States generated more renewable blending credits in October versus the previous month. It reported that about 1.27 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in October, compared with about 1.21 billion in September. Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending increased to nearly 784 million in October from about 768 million in September.

Oil rises 2% on supply worries as Russia-Ukraine war escalates (Reuters) - Oil climbed nearly 2% on Thursday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine were rapidly rising as the countries launched missiles at each other, worrying markets about crude supply if the conflict widened. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia had launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility, and warned the West that Moscow could strike the military installations of any country whose weapons were used against Russia. Putin said the West was escalating the conflict in Ukraine by allowing Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range missiles, and that the war was becoming a global conflict.Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.Brent crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.95%, to $74.23 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased $1.35, or 2%, to $70.10."The market's focus has now shifted to heightened concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine," said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB.Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, so major disruptions could impact global supplies."For oil, the risk is if Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure, while the other risk is uncertainty over how Russia responds to these attacks," said ING analysts in a note.Weighing on the market was a rise in U.S. crude inventories of 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, exceeding analysts' expectations.Gasoline inventories last week rose more than forecast, while distillate stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected draw, according to the Energy Information Administration data.China on Thursday announced policy measures to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs.OPEC+ may push back output increases again when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demand, said three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussions.The group, which combines the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, pumps around half the world's oil. It had initially planned to gradually reverse production cuts from late 2024 and through 2025.Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday reiterated his support for further interest rate cuts and his openness to doing them more slowly. Slower-than-expected interest rate cuts keep the cost of borrowing elevated in the meantime, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.

Oil prices climb 1% to two-week high as Ukraine war intensifies - Oil prices climbed about 1% to a two-week high on Friday as the intensifying war in Ukraine this week boosted the market’s geopolitical risk premium. Brent futures rose $1.05, or 1.4%, to $75.28 a barrel by 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.22, or 1.7%, to $71.32. That put both crude benchmarks up about 6% for the week and on track for their highest closes since Nov. 7 as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the U.S. allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles. “The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions beyond levels seen during the year-long conflict between Israel,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen. President Vladimir Putin said Russia would keep testing its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in combat and had a stock ready for use. Russia fired the missile into Ukraine, prompted by Ukraine’s use of U.S. ballistic missiles and British cruise missiles to hit Russia. “What the market fears is accidental destruction in any part of oil, gas and refining that not only causes long-term damage but accelerates a war spiral,” said PVM analyst John Evans. The U.S., meanwhile, imposed new sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank as President Joe Biden steps up actions to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine before he leaves office on Jan. 20. The Kremlin said the new U.S. sanctions were an attempt by Washington to hinder the export of Russian gas, but noted that a solution would be found. The U.S. also banned food, metals and other imports from about 30 more Chinese companies over alleged forced labor involving the Uyghurs. China, the world’s biggest oil importer, announced policy measures this week to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs. China’s crude oil imports were set to rebound in November, according to analysts, traders and ship tracking data. Oil imports also increased in India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, as domestic consumption increased, according to government data. Pressuring prices on Friday, euro zone business activity took a surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing sank deeper into recession. In contrast, S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to the highest level since April 2022, with the services sector providing the bulk of the increase. But with those business activity gauges moving in opposite directions in the U.S. and Europe, the U.S. dollar jumped to a two-year high versus a basket of other currencies. A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand. In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, the economy grew less than previously estimated in the third quarter, the statistics office reported on Friday.

U.S. oil prices score a more than 6% weekly gain on supply risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war | Morningstar --Oil futures settled higher on Friday, with the U.S. crude benchmark up by more than 6% for the week as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which is among the world's biggest oil producers.Still, downbeat economic data from Europe fed concerns over a potential slowdown in energy demand, as European business activity sank to a 10-month low, helping to limit gains for oil and keep WTI and Brent prices down year to date.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL00 CL.1 rose $1.14, or 1,6%, to settle at $71.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the front month contract, prices finished up by 6.4% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- January Brent crude BRN00 BRNF25, the global benchmark, climbed by 94 cents, or 1.3%, to $75.17 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a weekly rise of 5.8%.
• -- U.S. and global benchmark oil prices logged their biggest weekly percentage gains since early October.
• -- December gasoline RBZ24 tacked on 0.1% to $2.06 a gallon, with prices up nearly 5.8% for the week, while December heating oil HOZ24 ended little changed at $2.27 a gallon, posting a weekly rise of 4.8%.
• -- Natural gas for December delivery NGZ24 settled at $3.13 per million British thermal units, down 6.3% for the session, but ending 10.8% higher for the week.

"The resurgence in geopolitical tensions is serving as a bullish catalyst, but it is not an influence that will persist in perpetuity," analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Friday newsletter. "The reality of weakening economic trends amid a growing amount of sidelined supply is likely to send [WTI] futures back below $70 and even below $60 in the months ahead." "Conversely, a more meaningful rise in geopolitical tensions that threaten, or worse, directly impact, regional oil and gas infrastructure in Eastern Europe and Russia has the potential to send oil back beyond $80," they said. Oil prices had traded lower early Friday following downbeat economic data from Europe. The HCOB flash eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 10-month low in November, rekindling concerns about a recession in the eurozone. Gauges of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors left economists disappointed, but oil traders focused on the weak manufacturing data, which helped send prices lower on Friday, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank."Overall, I believe the weak demand outlook highlighted by the dismal manufacturing PMI in Europe today remains a key factor which has helped offset strengthening refinery margins amid a Northern Hemisphere cold spell and a non quantifiable geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine escalation," Hansen said in response to a question from MarketWatch via email. Oil prices rallied on Thursday after Ukraine said Russia had used an intercontinental ballistic missile, capping off a week of escalating tensions between the two neighbors as Russia's invasion dragged on. Prices for both U.S.-traded crude and the international benchmark rose this week, with WTI and Brent crude marking their best weekly performance since early October. Still, "the elephant in the room is the upcoming OPEC meeting," said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners, referring to major oil producers known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who will also be meeting with their allies, including Russia. The "popular wager" is that the group, known as OPEC+, will roll over, or extend, their production cuts again, he said. "We expect OPEC to hammer down on the overproducers that include Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Russia," said Raj. In November, OPEC+ announced that it would extend the 2.2 million barrel-per-day voluntary output cuts by one month to the end of December. For the Dec. 1 meeting, the CME Group's OPEC Watch tool shows a probability of 44.95% for no change to production plans, and a probability of 55.05% that the group will decide to further delay an output increase. Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, ended sharply lower on Friday, but after posting sharp gains in recent sessions, scored a nearly 11% rise for the week. Prices touched their highest level in a year on Thursday.Forecasts for colder weather, Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, and the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war have all contributed to a rise in natural-gas prices, said David Grumhaus, president and chief investment officer at Duff & Phelps. Trump's win is bullish for long-term prices because he is likely to encourage further natural-gas demand, while also loosening regulation around permitting for both pipelines and LNG export facilities, Grumhaus said. The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war not only tempers expectations of a cease-fire that could bring more gas back to Europe but Russia has, as of Nov. 16, halted supplies to Europe via Ukraine of a large remaining gas contract that wasn't scheduled to expire until year-end, he said. Weather is also a "wild card" and a harsh winter in the U.S. or in Europe could "Certainly push prices a lot higher,"

Iran to launch ‘advanced centrifuges’ in response to IAEA censure – Iran said Friday it would launch a series of “new and advanced” centrifuges in response to a resolution adopted by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation. The censure motion brought by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States at the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) follows a similar one in June. The resolution — which China, Russia and Burkina Faso voted against — was carried with 19 votes in favour, 12 abstentions and Venezuela not participating, two diplomats told AFP. “The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued an order to take effective measures, including launching a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types,” a joint statement by the organisation and Iran’s foreign ministry said. It added, however, that “technical and safeguards cooperation with the IAEA will continue, as in the past” and within the framework of agreements made by Iran. Iran’s retaliatory measures “are reversible if this (Western) hostile action is withdrawn or negotiations are opened,” Tehran-based political analyst Hadi Mohammadi told AFP. The resolution comes with tensions running high over Iran’s atomic programme, with critics fearing that Tehran is attempting to develop a nuclear weapon — a claim the Islamic republic has repeatedly denied. The confidential resolution seen by AFP says it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfil its legal obligations” under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ratified in 1970. The NPT requires signatory states to declare and place their nuclear materials under the control of the IAEA. The text also calls on Tehran to provide “technically credible explanations” for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran. In addition, Western powers are asking for a “comprehensive report” to be issued by the IAEA on Iran’s nuclear efforts “at the latest” by spring 2025. The resolution comes just as the IAEA’s head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway. During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity. “Iran did not start the cycle of provocation — the Western side could, without passing a resolution … create the atmosphere for negotiations if it really was after talks,” expert Hadi Mohammadi said.

Iran Announces New Centrifuges To Come Online After IAEA Rebuke - In a 19-3 vote with 12 abstentions, the IAEA agreed to rebuke Iran for a “lack of cooperation.” The vote was driven by the US, UK, and their allies. Russia and China both voted against the resolution, along with Burkina Faso.The timing of the decision was particularly unfortunately, coming just days after IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s visit to Iran, during which Iran agreed to measures designed to keep their stockpile of high-enriched uranium from growing. Iran also promised to ensure that it’s highest enrichment levels remain 60% or below, which is below the 90% level needed to make weapons.All that raised hope among officials actually invested in the safeguard efforts. The US-led effort for censure seems, as always, to underscore that Iran cannot take any steps that would satisfy them. Angered by the IAEA rebuke, Iran is promising a response.A joint statement by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and Foreign Ministry announced they will take new measures, including bringing newer, more advanced centrifuges online. Such moves would of course be reversible, if the international community became more willing to negotiate and comply with the existing P5+1 nuclear deal.That seems unlikely in the near term. Though the P5+1 deal is nominally still in effect, the US withdrew from it in 2018, after repeated condemnations by President Trump. Since Trump’s return to office in imminent, it seems unlikely that the administration will be any more willing to make a deal than they were the last time.Iran is trying to assure that the new measures are only related to enrichment, which again remains well below the level of weapons-grade uranium. The statement issued also assured that Iran will continue with safeguard and technical cooperation with the IAEA, as it had previously agreed.In the end, the IAEA censure is less about anything Iran is doing than about continuing the narrative of the “Iranian nuclear threat.” That this is the second time this year that the IAEA has voted on such a measure despite there being no real change in Iran’s policy or action. The US intelligence community has repeatedly confirmed that Iran has not decided to make a nuclear weapon. Seemingly every Iranian earthquake leads hawks to speculate a secret detonation has taken place, however, and the fear-mongering continues.

Rare Israeli Attack On Syria's Palmyra Launched From US-Controlled Airspace - Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked the outskirts of the central Syrian city of Palmyra on Wednesday, with regional reports saying the attacks were launched by Israeli jets utilizing US-controlled airspace over Al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria. "Israeli warplanes launched a number of missiles from the airspace of the [US] base in the Al-Tanf area on the Syrian–Iraqi–Jordanian border, in the far southeastern countryside of Homs, targeting the vicinity of the city of Palmyra," Sputnik’s correspondent reported.Israeli attacks on Palmyra are rare, if not unheard of, given how deep into central Syria and the eastern desert the town lies. Al-Tanf base is located a little over 200km from Palmyra. The border base has been occupied by US forces for many years now.Syrian state SANA has cited a large casualty count, reporting at least 36 dead and over 50 wounded. SANA reports, "At approximately 1:30 p.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of al-Tanf area, targeting a number of buildings in Palmyra City in the Syrian Desert, led to the martyrdom of 36 people, the injury of more than 50 others, and significant material damage to the buildings and the surrounding area."Palmyra before the war attracted tourists from across the globe as it is known for its ancient Roman ruins, and is a UNESCO World Heritage site.The iconic ruins and temples were partially damaged when the remote outpost was overrun by the Islamic State terror group in 2015, and many Syrian Army personnel were killed trying to defend it.Syrian government forces with the help of Russian aerial support were able to get Palmyra back from ISIS by March 2016. Russia and Syria have long accused American forces based out of Al-Tanf of training terrorists and facilitating their movements, in order to keep up pressure on Damascus.

Israel Strike in Central Beirut Hits Syrian Party Office, Killing Hezbollah Media Chief - The metro area around Beirut, particularly the southern suburbs, has been the focus of Israeli near-daily strikes for weeks now. Today, an Israeli airstrike hit central Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, in the Ras al-Nabaa District.The strike targeted a building belonging to the Syria Ba’ath Party, the ruling party of Syria, and killed at least five. Among the slain was Mohammad Afif, Hezbollah’s media relations chief. The other casualties have yet to be identified.Syrian Ba’ath Secretary General for Lebanon, Ali Hijazi, confirmed the killing of Afif. He added that Afif was not a combatant, and was only the head of Hezbollah’s media unit. He was at the party building for a meeting at the time of the attack.The strike reportedly damaged a large number of cars, in addition to nearly destroying the building. It also caused considerable panic as the area is near many important landmarks as well as the French Embassy. Israel has not previously attacked this district in its ever-escalating war.Israel has ramped up its attacks on Lebanon since late September and launched a ground invasion in early October that continues to movedeeper and deeper into southern Lebanon.There are active international efforts to try to negotiate a ceasefire in Lebanon, though Israeli officials insist there will be no ceasefire. Israel reportedly demands that any deal leave it free to strike Lebanon after a ceasefire begins, a condition unlikely to be accepted by Lebanon.

Netanyahu: Even If There's a Lebanon Ceasefire Deal, Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that even if there is a ceasefire deal reached in Lebanon, Israel will still operate militarily against Hezbollah.“The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper,” Netanyahu told the Knesset, according to AFP. “We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks… even after a ceasefire.”Netanyahu’s comments reflect Israel’s demands for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel wants Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon to areas north of the Litani River and wants its military to have freedom of action in southern Lebanon so it could enforce the deal, which is a non-starter for Hezbollah and the Lebanese government.A few weeks ago, Israeli media reported on a leaked US-drafted proposal for a Lebanon ceasefire that included Israel’s conditions. The US recently submitted a new ceasefire proposal to Lebanon, which the Lebanese government said it received “positively,” signaling it might not include the same maximalist demands.Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Monday most issues were resolved with the latest US draft proposal but that there were some “unclear points” that required “clarification” from Amos Hochstein, who President Biden has appointed as an envoy for Lebanon ceasefire talks.Hochstein is an Israeli-born IDF veteran who quietly encouraged Israel’s major escalations in Lebanon back in September despite the US initially saying publicly that it wanted a ceasefire. Hochstein is expected to visit Beirut this week to discuss the latest ceasefire proposal.Later on Monday, Reuters reported that both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed broadly to the US proposal, but there’s been no word on whether or not Israel has agreed.

At Least 20 Killed as Israel Levels Central Beirut Apartment With Bunker Buster Bomb - Israel attacking civilian targets without warning has become almost de rigueur in Lebanon these days. Overnight, however, the surprise attacks reached a new level, with Israel leveling an 8-storey apartment building in Central Beirut with a bunker buster bomb.The building was on Mamoun Street in the Basta al-Fawqa. The attack came at about 4:00 AM, and the explosion was so powerful it was felt all across the Lebanese capital city. At least 20 people have been killed, and over 70 wounded. Rescue operations are still ongoing.The use of a bunker buster bomb on a plainly civilian target seems excessive, and it’s not clear why Israel chose this unassuming building in the crowded center of Beirut to hit with such powerful weaponry. Israel has not publicly commented on the matter.Reports from Israeli media, however, suggest the attack aimed to kill Muhammad Haydar, who has risen to a high military position within Hezbollah, following assassinations of previous group leaders. However, Hezbollah insists neither Haydar nor any other Hezbollah members were in the building at the time.The bunker buster bombs are meant for targeting heavily fortified, or underground, complexes. The residential building, however, was clearly not meant to withstand airstrikes, let alone massive bombings, and the result with a big crater in the center of the neighborhood. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem earlier this week said that the attacks on central Beirut, which began last week, justified Hezbollah attacks on central Tel Aviv. This week, a missile strike did damage to an area of the Tel Aviv District, but east of the city of Tel Aviv itself. This all suggests that the war is continuing to escalate, and while US officials have expressed hopes about a ceasefire possibility, there is no sign of anything calming down.

More Than 100 Palestinians in Gaza Killed By Israeli Forces in One Day - Israeli forces killed at least 111 Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, Al Jazeerareported, citing medical sources, as Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip.The majority were killed by an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern city of Beit Lahia that was sheltering forcibly displaced families. Gaza’s Government Media Office said 72 Palestinians were killed in the strike, although the number isn’t confirmed. The Health Ministry saidnearly 30% of the victims of the massacre were children. Beit Lahia is one of the cities where Israeli forces have been conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign, forcing Palestinian civilians to flee under the threat of death. Beit Lahia, Beith Hanoun, and Jabalia have been under a complete Israeli siege since early October.Israeli strikes on Sunday also hit the Bureij and Nuseirat refugee camps in central Gaza. Middle East Eye reported that at least 10 were killed in Bureij. According to WAFA, at least four Palestinians were killed in Nuseirat.Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its daily death toll update, which it releases about mid-day Gaza time, that at least 47 Palestinians were killed and 139 were wounded in the previous 24-hour period. The toll only includes dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues, and rescuers have been unable to access certain areas in the besieged northern cities.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the Health Ministry said on Telegram. The ministry said the violence brought its death toll since October 2023 to 43,846 and the number of wounded to 103,740.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege have killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.The US continues to support the genocidal slaughter by providing military aid to Israel. Last week, a UN panel said Israel was committing genocide in Gaza, and Human Rights Watch said Israel was carrying out ethnic cleansing, but the US denied both charges to ensure weapons shipments continue to flow.

Israeli Forces Kill 76 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli attacks killed at least 76 Palestinians and wounded 158 more in the previous 24-hour period as Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip. Strikes on Monday included an attack on a house in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza that’s been under a complete siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign.According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, the Israeli strike in Beit Lahia killed at least 17 civilians. The strike was near the Kamal Adwan hospital, which also came under attack. According to Al Jazeera, people inside the hospital were injured by shrapnel when Israeli forces shelled the entrance.In Gaza City, an Israeli strike hit a house, killing at least five Palestiniansand injuring others. Israeli forces also targeted a house in Jabalia, killing one woman and injuring her family members.Israeli attacks were also reported in central and southern Gaza. Near the southern city of Rafah, an Israeli drone targeted a group of Palestinians, killing at least one. The Israeli military also bombed the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, killing at least four.The Health Ministry said the latest violence brought its death toll up to 43,922 and the number of wounded to 103,898. The figures don’t account for Palestinians missing and presumed dead under the rubble, which has previously been estimated to be over 10,000.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege have killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.

UN Says Nearly 100 Aid Trucks in Gaza Lost to Looters -The UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said Monday that nearly 100 aid trucks that entered Gaza over the weekend were lost to armed looters.UNRWA said at least 98 trucks of a 109 truck convoy were lost. The convoy was attacked after entering southern Gaza from Israel through the Kerem Shalom border crossing. UNRWA said that the convoy was initially scheduled to enter Gaza on Sunday, but the Israeli military ordered it to leave a day early “at short notice via an alternate, unfamiliar route.” Last week, Haaretz reported that Israel was intentionally allowing armed gangs in Gaza to loot aid trucks and extort drivers for protection money. The report said that in some cases, the last remnants of Gaza’s police force tried to take action against the looters, but they were attacked by Israeli troops. Israel has systematically targeted Gaza’s police force throughout the past year. The Israeli military justifies its attacks on the police force by pointing to Hamas’s control over the force, but the lack of police has made securing aid for starving Palestinians much more difficult.In a sign that Gaza still has some sort of police force, the Strip’s Interior Ministry said Monday that it had confronted gangs responsible for looting aid. “More than 20 members of gangs involved in stealing aid trucks were killed in a security operation carried out by security forces in cooperation with tribal committees,” the ministry said, according to AFP.“Today’s security operation will not be the last. The phenomenon of truck thefts … has severely impacted society and led to signs of famine in southern Gaza,” the ministry added.Israel has been enforcing a starvation blockade on the northern cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia, not allowing any aid into those areas since early October. But the overall aid situation across the Strip has worsened as October saw the lowest number of aid trucks entering Gaza of any month since the start of Israel’s genocidal war.

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and a senior Hamas official, accusing them of war crimes during and after the October 7 attacks on Israel last year. In a statement on Thursday, the Netherlands-based court said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe that Netanyahu bears criminal responsibility for war crimes including “starvation as a method of warfare” and “the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” The warrants mark a historic first, making Netanyahu the first Israeli leader summoned by an international court for alleged actions against Palestinians in the 76-year conflict. While ICC warrants don’t guarantee arrests, they could significantly restrict Netanyahu’s ability to travel to ICC member states. The prime minister’s office dismissed the warrants as “absurd and antisemitic.” “Israel utterly rejects the absurd and false actions and accusations against it by the International Criminal Court, which is a politically biased and discriminatory body,” his office said, adding that there is “no war more just… after the Hamas terrorist organization launched a murderous attack against it, carrying out the largest massacre against the Jewish people since the Holocaust.”Netanyahu “will not yield to pressure, will not back down, and will not retreat until all the goals of the war set by Israel at the start of the campaign are achieved,” it said.Israel, like the United States, is not a member of the ICC and has challenged the court’s jurisdiction over its actions in the conflict – a challenge the court rejected on Thursday. The ICC claims jurisdiction over territories Israel occupies, including Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank, following the Palestinian leadership’s formal agreement to be bound by the court’s founding principles in 2015.The court on Thursday also issued a warrant for Hamas official Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, who Israel says was one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack. Israel said it killed him in an airstrike in September but Hamas hasn’t confirmed his death. The ICC said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe that Deif was responsible for “crimes against humanity, including murder, extermination, torture, and rape and other form of sexual violence, as well as the war crimes of murder, cruel treatment, torture, taking hostages, outrages upon personal dignity, and rape and other form of sexual violence.”Deif bears “criminal responsibility” for these crimes, the court said, having “committed the acts jointly and through others… having ordered or induced the commission of the crimes,” and for failing to “exercise proper control over forces under his effective command and control.”

ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant over Israel’s war in Gaza --The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant “for crimes against humanity and war crimes” over Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. The court said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe Netanyahu and Gallant bore responsibility for crimes including the use of starvation as a method of war and for “murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” The court also issued a warrant for a Hamas military leader, Mohammed Deif, who Israeli officials say was killed in Gaza in July. Prosecutors issued the warrants because they were not able to confirm his death, the chambersaid. Israeli officials fiercely criticized the ICC’s decision, while a Hamas representative welcomed it. The decision of the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant subjects both men to the threat of arrest if they travel. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would abide by the rulings of the International Criminal Court when asked Thursday whether he would step in to prevent the arrest of senior Israeli officials in Canada. “We are one of the founding members of the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice,” Trudeau said. “We stand up for international law and we will abide by all the regulations and rulings of the international courts. The United States “fundamentally rejects” the decision by the ICC to issue arrest warrants for senior Israeli leaders, a National Security Council spokesperson said Thursday.“We remain deeply concerned by the Prosecutor’s rush to seek arrest warrants and the troubling process errors that led to this decision,” the spokesperson said. “The United States has been clear that the ICC does not have jurisdiction over this matter.”The spokesperson added that the U.S. was “discussing next steps” with its partners, including Israel. Yoav Gallant, the former Israeli defense minister who is the subject of a new arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, said the court’s decision “sets a dangerous precedent against the right to self-defense and moral warfare.” A spokesman for the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said Thursday that France supports “the action of the prosecutor of the court, which acts fully independently.” Spokesman Christophe Lemoine pointed to France’s previous statement when the warrants were requested, saying “the fight against impunity is our priority … so our reaction will be in line with these principles.” The Irish Foreign Ministry published a statement Thursday in support of the International Criminal Court. “Ireland is a strong supporter of the ICC and calls on all States to respect its independence and impartiality, with no attempts made to undermine the court,” the statement said.Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called the decision to issue the warrants “an extremely significant step,” Reuters reported. The International Criminal Court’s announcement about issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant drew sharp and immediate reaction around the globe on Thursday, with Netanyahu’s office decrying the decision as “antisemitic” and the Netherlands coming forward as the first country willing to enforce the warrants.

Situation in the State of Palestine: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I rejects the State of Israel’s challenges to jurisdiction and issues warrants of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant -- International Criminal Court press release: Today, on 21 November 2024, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the International Criminal Court (‘Court’), in its composition for the Situation in the State of Palestine, unanimously issued two decisions rejecting challenges by the State of Israel (‘Israel’) brought under articles 18 and 19 of the Rome Statute (the ‘Statute’). It also issued warrants of arrest for Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant…. The Chamber issued warrants of arrest for two individuals, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant, for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest.The arrest warrants are classified as ‘secret’, in order to protect witnesses and to safeguard the conduct of the investigations. However, the Chamber decided to release the information below since conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing. Moreover, the Chamber considers it to be in the interest of victims and their families that they are made aware of the warrants’ existence.At the outset, the Chamber considered that the alleged conduct of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant falls within the jurisdiction of the Court. The Chamber recalled that, in a previous composition, it already decided that the Court’s jurisdiction in the situation extended to Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Furthermore, the Chamber declined to use its discretionary proprio motu powers to determine the admissibility of the two cases at this stage. This is without prejudice to any determination as to the jurisdiction and admissibility of the cases at a later stage….The Chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that during the relevant time, international humanitarian law related to international armed conflict between Israel and Palestine applied. This is because they are two High Contracting Parties to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and because Israel occupies at least parts of Palestine. The Chamber also found that the law related to non-international armed conflict applied to the fighting between Israel and Hamas. The Chamber found that the alleged conduct of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant concerned the activities of Israeli government bodies and the armed forces against the civilian population in Palestine, more specifically civilians in Gaza. It therefore concerned the relationship between two parties to an international armed conflict, as well as the relationship between an occupying power and the population in occupied territory. For these reasons, with regards to war crimes, the Chamber found it appropriate to issue the arrest warrants pursuant to the law of international armed conflict. The Chamber also found that the alleged crimes against humanity were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.The Chamber considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that both individuals intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity, from at least 8 October 2023 to 20 May 2024. This finding is based on the role of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant in impeding humanitarian aid in violation of international humanitarian law and their failure to facilitate relief by all means at its disposal. The Chamber found that their conduct led to the disruption of the ability of humanitarian organisations to provide food and other essential goods to the population in need in Gaza. The aforementioned restrictions together with cutting off electricity and reducing fuel supply also had a severe impact on the availability of water in Gaza and the ability of hospitals to provide medical care.The Chamber also noted that decisions allowing or increasing humanitarian assistance into Gaza were often conditional. They were not made to fulfil Israel’s obligations under international humanitarian law or to ensure that the civilian population in Gaza would be adequately supplied with goods in need. In fact, they were a response to the pressure of the international community or requests by the United States of America. In any event, the increases in humanitarian assistance were not sufficient to improve the population’s access to essential goods.Furthermore, the Chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that no clear military need or other justification under international humanitarian law could be identified for the restrictions placed on access for humanitarian relief operations. Despite warnings and appeals made by, inter alia, the UN Security Council, UN Secretary General, States, and governmental and civil society organisations about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, only minimal humanitarian assistance was authorised. In this regard, the Chamber considered the prolonged period of deprivation and Mr Netanyahu’s statement connecting the halt in the essential goods and humanitarian aid with the goals of war.The Chamber therefore found reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant bear criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare.The Chamber found that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the lack of food, water, electricity and fuel, and specific medical supplies, created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population in Gaza, which resulted in the death of civilians, including children due to malnutrition and dehydration. On the basis of material presented by the Prosecution covering the period until 20 May 2024, the Chamber could not determine that all elements of the crime against humanity of extermination were met. However, the Chamber did find that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of murder was committed in relation to these victims.In addition, by intentionally limiting or preventing medical supplies and medicine from getting into Gaza, in particular anaesthetics and anaesthesia machines, the two individuals are also responsible for inflicting great suffering by means of inhumane acts on persons in need of treatment. Doctors were forced to operate on wounded persons and carry out amputations, including on children, without anaesthetics, and/or were forced to use inadequate and unsafe means to sedate patients, causing these persons extreme pain and suffering. This amounts to the crime against humanity of other inhumane acts.The Chamber also found reasonable grounds to believe that the abovementioned conduct deprived a significant portion of the civilian population in Gaza of their fundamental rights, including the rights to life and health, and that the population was targeted based on political and/or national grounds. It therefore found that the crime against humanity of persecution was committed.Finally, the Chamber assessed that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population of Gaza. In this regard, the Chamber found that the material provided by the Prosecution only allowed it to make findings on two incidents that qualified as attacks that were intentionally directed against civilians. Reasonable grounds to believe exist that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant, despite having measures available to them to prevent or repress the commission of crimes or ensure the submittal of the matter to the competent authorities, failed to do so.

Poll: Majority of Ukrainians Want Peace Talks To End War With Russia - A poll released by Gallup on Tuesday found that the majority of Ukrainians want peace talks to end the war with Russia.The poll, conducted in August and October, found that 52% of respondents wanted talks with Russia to end the conflict as soon as possible, while 38% believed Ukraine should keep fighting, and 9% said they didn’t know or refused to answer. Out of the 52% who favor negotiations, 52% said Ukraine should be open to territorial concessions, while 38% disagreed, and 10% said they weren’t sure.The survey marked the first time since the Russian invasion that a Gallup poll found the majority of Ukrainians favored negotiations to end the war. The support for peace talks is stronger in eastern areas of Ukraine near the frontlines, where 63% want negotiations to end the war, and only 27% want the fighting to continue.The poll, published on the 1,000th day of the war, came amid a major US escalation in the war as Ukraine began striking Russian territory with long-range US-provided missiles. The Biden administration appears to be doing whatever it can to escalate the conflict before President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on January 20. The US is escalating the proxy war despite Ukraine having no clear path to victory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing for more US support as part of his so-called “victory plan,” but even he has acknowledged the war will likely end through diplomacy in 2025.

Ukraine's ATACMS Strike On Russia Comes After Putin Lowers Threshold For Nukes About a day after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike deeper into Russian territory, a new report suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have hit a military installation in the western Bryansk region. This comes after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine was changed and signed by President Vladimir Putin, indicating "the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response." "For the first time, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles," RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday. RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS. This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine. ATACMS flew more than 140 km and hit a target in the Bryansk region, russia. This means that the strike permit applies not only to Kurshchyna, as the Western media wrote about it. This attack also showed that the air defense of the russian Federation will have big problems with…pic.twitter.com/0Y1PU8g1Nt "Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit," one source told the local media outlet. Separately, media outlet Kyiv Post stated the 67th arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia was hit. The facility reportedly had large stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, munitions for multiple launch rocket systems, artillery ammunition, and guided bombs, much of which was supplied by North Korea.Kyiv Post noted: Russian media sources, including residents on social networks, reported explosions coming from within the Karachev district, and suggesting that a "military base" was being attacked. The Russian Astra Telegram channel shared videos of the incident, while local reports said that there had been strikes on this arsenal in late 2023 and again in June and October this year. Bloomberg revealed more details about the attack: Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukrainian armed forces launched a strike with US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles at a military object in Bryansk region on the border with Ukraine, Interfax reports.

European governments back use of US missiles to bomb Russia -- As Ukraine deploys US-supplied ATACMS missiles to bomb Russia, European officials are giving this policy their full support. The content of this staggeringly reckless decision—after the Kremlin warned that the use of US missiles, fired by US forces in Ukraine based on US targeting data, meant direct war between NATO and Russia—is unmistakable. The NATO alliance is, in reality, risking total war between the major nuclear powers. European governments are imposing this policy with flagrant disregard for the will of the people. After French President Emmanuel Macron called for sending troops to Ukraine to fight Russia this winter, a Eurasia Group poll found that nine in 10 people in Western Europe rejected this policy, which other European heads of state criticized. Now, however, they are all setting into motion an escalation of the conflict with Russia that could lead to nuclear war. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted a tougher Russian nuclear doctrine than he had announced earlier this autumn, in response to US-UK threats to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles to bomb Russia. It states that “aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be regarded as their joint attack”. That is, if Ukraine fires NATO missiles at Russia, the NATO states are legitimate targets of Russian counterattacks, including with nuclear weapons. With monumental recklessness, European governments are indicating that they are willing to risk nuclear war in order to escalate their intervention in Ukraine. At a meeting of European Union (EU) foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock endorsed the use of US missiles to bomb Russia. Berlin supports the “decision from the American side,” Baerbock said, stressing that this was “not a rethink … but an intensification of what has already been delivered by other partners.” Asked about the the use of NATO missiles to bomb Russia during the Brussels summit, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France already supported this policy: “Well, you have heard President Macron on May 25th, in Meseberg, earlier this year. We openly said that this was an option that we would consider if it was to allow to strike targets from where Russian are currently aggressing Ukrainian territory. So, nothing new on this.” Yesterday, after Russia confirmed that Kiev and Washington had used ATACMS missiles to bomb Russia, Baerbock reiterated this position. She brushed aside Russian threats of a massive response, including the potential use of nuclear weapons, at Tuesday’s EU foreign ministers meeting in Warsaw. Asked how the German government views the change to Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine, she dismissed it, stating: “We will not be intimidated, no matter what new things are trumpeted time and again.” Amid the German election campaign, representatives of the governing and official opposition parties took similar positions. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), Chair of the Defense Committee in the European Parliament, commented on X: “Better late than never. It is very good that Joe Biden is now making this important decision at the end of his term of office.” Norbert Röttgen, a leading foreign policy strategist of Germany’s opposition Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), also wrote on X: “The USA is doing what is morally and politically right. An overdue step that will finally enable Ukraine to defend itself against Russian weapons before they kill civilians in Ukraine.” He added, “Strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself [is] permitted under international law and morally and politically necessary. It is the only language Putin understands.” No one is asking the necessary questions to explain the staggering consequences of this policy. If the Russian military responds to NATO strikes on its soil by bombing European military bases, or European cities, what do the European powers plan to do? Do they believe that they can wage a large-scale war with Russia without triggering nuclear war? How many millions of human lives are the European powers prepared to sacrifice for their war aims?

12 UK Storm Shadow Missiles Were Fired Into Russia, Local Sources Say - More details have emerged of Wednesday's Storm Shadow missile attack from Ukraine on Russia. This marks the first authorized known use of the long-range weapon in a cross-border attack. Previously the British government restricted use to within the Ukrainian battlespace, in the Donbass for example.Russian war correspondents have confirmed that "A missile’s flight was heard over Kursk. There’s information about a Storm Shadow attack near Rylsk." While the extent of damage or precise targets is unclear, sources on the ground say that up to a dozen Storm Shadows were fired:Rylsk’s territorial defense forces claimed that 12 Storm Shadow missiles were launched at around 2:50 p.m. Bloomberg, citing an anonymous Western official, also reported that Ukraine had fired Storm Shadow missiles on targets in Russia.Kursk regional Governor Alexei Smirnov announced that two inbound missiles were intercepted by anti-air defenses, but did not specify whether they were the UK-supplied missiles.In a first official acknowledgement and strong hint, Yuriy Ignat, a Ukrainian air force official, wrote on Facebook that "there was a ‘strong storm’ in Kursk region" - according to FT. One of the aims of the US and UK escalating like this appears to be sending a 'strong message' to North Korea as it's deployed thousands of troops to assist Russian forces.

Putin says Russia fired intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia fired a new, nonnuclear intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, part of a wide-ranging TV address that sharply criticized the U.S. for escalating the war. Putin said Russia had refrained from firing intermediate-range missiles but decided to carry out the test on Thursday after the U.S. allowed Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at targets inside his country. “And further actions will be considered and decided based on what we see from them,” Putin said. “It is not Russia but the United States who have decided to destroy a system of international security.” Ukrainian forces had earlier claimed that Russia fired at Ukraine an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is designed to hit targets thousands of miles away. It did not say what the impact of the launch was. But Putin said Russia fired an experimental intermediate ballistic missile that can reach speeds of Mach 10, or more than 7,000 mph. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles can hit targets up to 3,500 miles away. The missile, which was equipped with a nonnuclear hypersonic warhead, struck a military command center in Ukraine, Putin claimed. Russia’s ballistic missile test still raises the stakes in the war as Putin has vowed to respond to the U.S. authorizing Ukraine to launch the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) in Russia, something he has referred to as a red line for months. Putin earlier this week lowered the nuclear threshold in response to the Biden administration authorizing ATACMS, renewing fears that he could deploy a nuclear weapon against Ukraine. The Kremlin said conventional missiles from a nuclear-armed nation being fired into Russia by Ukraine could trigger a nuclear response. The White House has yet to publicly confirm that it has approved Ukraine’s use of ATACMS, but U.S. officials have pointed to Russia deploying thousands of North Korean troops against Ukraine as the escalation, not the long-range missile authorization. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Thursday that the “escalation at every turn, at every step, is coming from Russia.” “They’re the ones that are escalating this,” she said. “This is an aggression from their side.” Jean-Pierre said the U.S. was aware of the ballistic missile launch and reiterated that the White House views Putin’s saber-rattling as “irresponsible rhetoric.” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a briefing the U.S, was pre-notified of the ballistic missile launch through nuclear risk reduction channels. She added that Putin had made “dangerous, reckless rhetoric” in his Thursday speech. Putin on Thursday said the ATACMS missiles have already been used in the Russian regions of Kursk and Bryansk, confirming earlier reports from officials in Russia. He claimed that the ATACMS were largely countered by Russia but still wounded and killed Russian officials. Putin also expressed confidence in his forces, saying they were “advancing along the entire line of contact” in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are defending against a larger Russian army. Russia, however, has taken heavy losses in the advance. Putin said that because of the complexity involving ATACMS, the U.S. is directly involved in the firing of the systems at Russia and threatened that Russia was prepared for a response. “The ruling elites of the countries that are nurturing plans to use their military contingents against Russia should be warned,” Putin said.

Putin Says Russia Struck Ukraine With a New Hypersonic Missile in Response To Western Missiles - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia fired a new hypersonic ballistic missile at a Ukrainian military factory in Dnipro in response to US and British long-range missiles being fired into Russian territory.“There was, among other things, a combat-conditions test of one of Russia’s newest intermediate-range missile systems. In this case it was a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic version,” Putin said,according to TASS.The missile, codenamed Oreshnik, would have been banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019. “We believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext,” Putin said. Ukrainian officials initially claimed Russia fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) into Dnipro, but that was quickly contradicted by US and other Western officials. The Pentagon later said the new missilewas based on Russia’s Rubezh ICBM model and that Russia notified the US before the launch, which was confirmed by the Kremlin.Russia’s use of its new missile came after Ukraine launched US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory. The escalation came after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the longer-range missiles, which require direct NATO support to be fired. Biden took the step despite clear warnings from Russia that the escalation would risk nuclear war and World War III. Putin said the ATACMS attack did not result in any serious damage, but the Storm Shadows attack hit a military command point, resulting in deaths and injuries. He warned the NATO-supported strikes could turn the Ukraine war into a “global” conflict.

Russia Says US Missile Defense Base in Poland Is a Potential Target - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday that a controversial US missile defense base in Poland is a potential target of the Russian military, comments that come amid soaring tensions as the US just authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range NATO missiles.“Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry,” Zakharova said.The Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile system in Poland has long been a security concern for Russia as its Mark-41 launchers are capable of fitting nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles. A land-based version of the Tomahawks was previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The US just recently opened the Aegis Ashore base in Poland, and NATO formally took control of it on Thursday. “The integration of the Aegis Ashore system into NATO’s defensive network underscores our collective commitment to ensuring the security of all Allies,” US Air Force Gen. James Hecker, the head of NATO’s Allied Air Command, said at a ceremony formalizing NATO control of the base.Zakharova said the establishment of the base follows “a series of deeply destabilizing actions by the Americans and their North Atlantic allies in the strategic sphere” and said the move “aligns with the longstanding and destructive practice of advancing NATO’s military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.”Russian President Vladimir Putin also said on Thursday that Russia has the right to strike the military facilities of countries that are supplying Ukraine with the missiles. “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” he said.

Ukraine Becoming 'Global War' After Western Long-Range Weapons Used Against Russia: Putin - On Thursday President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning in the wake of Ukraine launching long-range strikes on Russia's territory utilizing newly approved US and UK long-range missiles."Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory," began his televised address by saying. He confirmed British-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired targets located in Bryansk and Kursk Regions.He said this action threatens to turn the Ukraine conflict into a global war. "A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one," Putin spelled out, and noted that these systems cannot be used without the direct operational involvement of Western military specialists. So, that's what you wanted? Well, you've damn well got it!A hypersonic ballistic missile attack pic.twitter.com/lsKQHhMnif But he went on to claim that the inbound Western rockets were intercepted by Russian defenses. "The goals that have apparently been set by the enemy have not been achieved." He suggested injuries among some personnel at a command center in Kursk, but noted it continues full operations. He also asserted that no Western systems can counter Russia's new missiles, on display earlier in the day."The use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the Special Military Operation zone," Putin stressed. He also said it was a big mistake for the US to pull out of the the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. President Putin issues warning to the West: 'We will act decisively in cases of escalation' pic.twitter.com/0FvoHy5vU8 Can things cool prior to Trump taking office, or will Zelensky and the West risk bigger confrontation, to likely trigger Russian hypersonic missiles or even a tactical nuke? This is indeed an ultra-dangerous slide.

Russia Says It's Ready For Any "Realistic" Ukraine Peace Plan As ICBMs Fly After Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) went airborne Thursday for the first time of the war, reportedly targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the Kremlin is emphasizing that it is still open to peace - amid this week's fresh wave of hugely escalatory policies issued from the US and UK (namely, greenlighting long-range attacks on Russian territory with West-supplied missiles).A senior Ukrainian military official earlier told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called "RS-26 Rubezh" that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital. In the wake of this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing that Russia is still ready to consider any "realistic" peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine.She said a realistic plan takes into account Russia's own interests and the situation on the ground. "We are open to negotiations, we are ready to consider any realistic, non-politicized initiative – of course," Zakharova said."I would like to emphasize once again: the key word is taking into account the interests of our country, the current situation on ground and guarantees of compliance with relevant agreements," she reiterated.President Putin has previously indicated that a realistic solution would hinge on nothing less than Ukraine giving up all aspirations to join NATO as well as the ceding of the four territories in the east and south, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.Ukrainian officials have throughout the war spoken as if the ceding of the eastern territories is a non-starter. However, Zelensky views Trump's plan to jump-start peace negotiations as authentic."I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision" to end the war, Zelensky told a European summit earlier this month, but followed with: "It doesn't mean that it will happen this way.""He [Trump] wants this war to be finished," Zelensky continued, but then described hasty resolution "is going to be a loss for Ukraine."