largest one day oil price drop in two years; gasoline supplies at a 102 week low; distillates supplies at a 47 week low

largest one day oil price drop in two years; US oil output remains at a record high; US gasoline inventories at a 102 week low; distillates inventories at a 47 week low

US oil prices finished lower for the second time in three weeks as fears of a broader war impacting oil supplies in the Middle East were greatly diminished after Israel limited its weekend attack on Tehran to military targets…after rising 4.5% to $71.78 a barrel last week after Israel had stepped up its attacks on Gaza and the capital cities of Lebanon, Syria and Iran, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery fell over 4% in Asian trading early on Monday after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran over the weekend were limited in scope and notably avoided targeting Tehran’s oil and nuclear facilities, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, then gapped lower to open below $69 in New York, as Israel’s measured attack struck missile manufacturing and surface to air missile defense sites across Iran, easing fears of oil supply disruptions in the region​, and continued to tumble to settle $4.40 or more than 6% lower at $67.38 a barrel, the largest daily drop in two years, after Iranian energy facilities were left undamaged during Israeli strikes over the weekend…oil prices experienced a modest rebound in overseas markets early Tuesday after the U.S. announced a plan late Monday to buy oil for its strategic reserves, but continued Monday’s sell off in New York on a report that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would hold a meeting to search for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon, and settled 17 cents lower at $67.21 a barrel​,​ as signs of a potential de-escalation of Israel’s Lebanon offensive offset the prospect of more stimulus in China…oil prices moved sharply higher in global markets on Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories had dropped sharply, reflecting stronger-than-expected domestic demand, then continued higher in New York trading on the possibility of more attacks in the Middle East after the EIA ​had reported US crude stockpiles tightened and gasoline supplies hit a two year low, and settled $1.40 or 2% higher at $68.61 a barrel following reports that OPEC+ might delay a planned output increase, and after the unexpected draw from US crude and gasoline stocks…oil prices rose 1% on global markets on Thursday on stronger than expected U.S. fuel demand and reports that the producer group OPEC+ could delay a planned output increase, then rallied again late in the New York session on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory attack on Israel, and settled up 65 cents at $69.26 a barrel as traders weighed the growing risk of a​ retaliatory ​Iranian attack on Israel that would further fuel tensions in the oil-rich Middle East...US oil prices then jumped $2.15 or 3.13% to $70.76 after the session's settlement at 3:22 ​P.M. on Thursday on a report that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, then continued to trade 1% higher in Asia on Friday on that late report that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in coming days, but pulled back from the highs during the US session to settle just 23 cents higher at $69.49 a barrel, as record U.S. output weighed on prices, which ended 3.2% lower for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices fell every day this week but ended higher, due to a switch to quoting the higher priced December contract…after rising 13.4% to $2.560 per mmBTU last week on cooler weather forecasts and lower field production, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for November delivery opened almost 20 cents lower on Monday as steady production and weak demand dominated market sentiment, and never recovered as it closed 25.1 cents or nearly 10% lower at $2.309 per mmBTU, on forecasts for mild weather through at least mid-November, less demand next week than was previously expected​, and an increase in ​well output over the prior four days…the November contract opened four cents lower on its last day of trading on Tuesday, as bearish sentiment continued to hold court, but posted a staggered ascent throughout the session and expired 3.7 cents higher at $2.346 per mmBTU on a one-day drop in output, forecasts for slightly cooler weather next week, and position squaring ahead of the contract expiry, while the more actively traded contract for December natural gas settled four tenths of a cent lower at 2.859 per mmBTU…with markets now quoting the price of the benchmark December contract, natural gas prices opened 5.2 cents lower on Wednesday, as traders balanced weak fundamentals against the unofficial start of winter but partly recovered to settle 1.4 cents lower at $2.845 per mmBTU on forecasts for mild weather to continue through mid-November, keeping heating demand low and allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage than normal for at least a few more weeks…the December gas contract opened down 5.8 cents on Thursday and traded around $2.765 on ongoing weak demand and increased production ahead of the weekly storage report, then dropped another 8 cents following the release of a bearish storage report, before settling​ down 13.8 cents or about 5% lower at $2.707 per mmBTU on an expected bigger-than-usual invento\ry build, and on forecasts for mild weather to continue through mid November….natural gas prices opened half a cent lower on Friday and slumped through early afternoon trading, hampered by a mostly bearish weather outlook and elevated supply, and settled 4.4 cents lower at $2.663 per mmBTU, undercut by mild weather at the traditional start of the heating season, and on another LNG terminal startup delay….despite falling for five consecutive days, natural gas price quotes finished the week 4.0% higher than the prior week, while the natural gas for December delivery, which had finished last week priced at $3.092 per mmBTU, finished 13.9% lower....

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 25th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 78 billion cubic feet to 3,863 billion cubic feet by the end of that week, which left our natural gas supplies 107 billion cubic feet, or 2.8% above the 3,756 billion cubic feet that were in storage on October 25th of last year, and 178 billion cubic feet, or 4.8% more than the five-year average of 3,685 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 25th of October over the most recent five years….the 78 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was a little less than the 82 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, but it was close to the 77 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in October of 2023, while somewhat more than the average 67 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early autumn week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 25th indicated that after a decrease in our oil imports, an increase our oil exports, and a big addition to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the thirteenth time in eighteen weeks, and for the 26th time in the past 47 weeks...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 456,000 barrels per day to 5,975,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 902,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 149,000 barrels per day to 4,261,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,714,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 25th, 605,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 413,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at a record high of 13,500,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,627,000 barrels per day during the October 25th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,053,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 25th, an average of 30,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 96,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 25th averaged a rounded 522,000 barrels per day less than what what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+522,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that ​m​agnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 96,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 74,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 170,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-sixth SPR increase in the past fifty-three weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports slipped to 6,043,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.2% less than the 6,177,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at a record high of 13,500,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 9,000 barrels per day higher at 435,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 89.1% of their capacity while processing those 16,053,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 25th, down from from their 89.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, ​f​airly normal utilization rate​s for early Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 16,053,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 5.3% more than the 15,251,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending October 27th of 2023, and 0.3% more than the 15,998,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending October 25th, 2019, a week when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic below normal 87.7% for ​​late October…

With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 259,000 barrels per day to 9,695,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 25th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 666,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 2.1% more than the 9,494,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending October 27th of last year, but was 4.8% less than the gasoline production of 10,184,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending October 25th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 148,000 barrels per day to 4,863,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 257,000 barrels per day during the prior week. But after twenty-three production increases in the past thirty-five weeks, our distillates output was 6.2% more than the 4,580,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 27th of 2023, while 2.2% less than the 4,970,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 25th, 2019…

With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the eleventh time in eighteen weeks, decreasing by 2,707,000 barrels to a 102 week low of 210,868,000 barrels during the week ending October 25th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 878,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 321,000 barrels per day to 9,159,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of gasoline fell by 19,000 barrels per day to 495,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 786,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-four gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-nine weeks, our gasoline supplies were at a 102 week low, 5.7% below last October 27th’s gasoline inventories of 223,522,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Likewise, with this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 6th consecutive week and for the 24th time in the past forty weeks, decreasing by 977,000 barrels to a forty-seven week low of 112,862,000 barrels over the week ending October 25th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,140,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell again this week even as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 250,000 barrels per day to 3,881,000 barrels per day, as our exports of distillates rose by 131,000 barrels per day to 1,279,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 53,000 barrels per day to 158,000 barrels per day....Even after 23 inventory withdrawals over the past 39 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.4% above the 111,295,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 27th of 2023, while they are still about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the decrease in our oil imports and the increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 17th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 515,000 barrels over the week, from 426,024,000 barrels on October 18th to 425,509,000 barrels on October 25th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 5,474,000 barrels over the prior week… ​With this week’s ​modest decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, and were about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this October 25th were 0.9% more than the 421,893,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on October 27th of 2023, while 2.6% less than the 436,830,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 28th of 2022, and 1.2% less than the 430,812,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 22nd of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

Baker Hughes changed the format on the rig count summary table this week and my attempts to copy it using a screenshot have turned out virtually unreadable, as you can see below...even the original was poorly designed and included a lot of useless clutter, such as the green and red up and down arrows to help those who are numerically challenged determine which numbers are larger or smaller...unless i can come up with a better way to display this table, i might just let this report slide until such time as weekly rig changes become significant enough to write about again...(NB: anyone who'd like a better view can download the Baker Hughes report here..

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Conservancy district agrees to fracking lease at Leesville Lake for $12.4 million plus royalties by Jake Zuckerman, Cleveland.com – A state watershed conservancy district voted to sell drilling rights underneath 2,257 acres of Leesville Lake in Carroll County for about $12.4 million plus 20% on royalties to Encino Energy, a Houston based oil and gas company. The board of directors of the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District voted last week to allow its staff to execute the lease, which hasn’t yet been finalized, according to spokeswoman Adria Bergeron. She said the lease will not allow surface operations at Leesville. Instead, drillers will need to operate from well pads adjacent to the property, where they dig down thousands of feet before turning 90-degrees and reaching underneath the lake for its gas reserves. She said the lease will contain “all the standard MWCD environmental and operational protections.” The district, which operates dams over the watershed reaching from Akron to Buckeye Lake, formed in the early 20th century as a conservation effort after deadly flooding. But since the natural gas boom of the 2010s on Marcellus and Utica shale fields, it has leased out more than 31,000 acres of lands to Encino, Gulfport Energy, of Oklahoma, and Antero Resources, of Houston, bringing in more than $278 million in leases and royalty payments between 2011 and 2022.The money funds conservation projects, developments and new buildings at the district’s parks and campgrounds, expensive upkeep on the Muskingum dams, among other things.To free natural gas from shale underground, operators pump in a mixture of sand, water and chemicals at high pressure. To meet the water demand, the conservancy district has sold more than 1 billion gallons of its water to the operators. However, a spokesman said it has not entered any water sales agreement with Encino.Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer reached out to an Encino spokeswoman.Leesville Lake in eastern Ohio includes 1,000 acres of water and about 2,700 acres of land, according to the district, and is popular among muskie fishers and campers. In 2012, the district signed a lease with Chesapeake Energy (later acquired by Encino) for mineral rights to 3,682 acres of Leesville Lake. Tappan Lake, a 2,350 acre body of water, also sits in the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District. The MWCD entered a $40 million lease with Encino Energy, allowing drilling under the lake. It also sells water from the lake to power the fracking for gas underneath.Republican state lawmakers recently passed legislation allowing state agencies – namely the departments of natural resources and transportation – to lease out state lands for oil and gas development. The state Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has allowed for leases at Salt Fork State Park and several other state wildlife areas since then. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, which is technically formed by local governments through the court system, has already been executing such fracking leases since at least 2012 and conventional oil and gas leases for decades.

Utica Shale Play Resurgence is Real – It's Time to Get Excited! | Marcellus Drilling News - Guy Coviello, President and CEO of the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce, is jazzed about the resurging Utica Shale and says it's time to get excited about it. In a recent column, Coviello said it's time "to once again embrace our friends in the oil and gas industry, for our policymakers to invest in the infrastructure necessary to enrich our Valley, for community leaders to roll out red carpets, and for government at all levels to keep the regulatory environment safe and friendly." What has Coviello so jazzed, especially for the northern Utica? We can sum it up in one word: Oil. COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | MAHONING COUNTY

CNX Drilled Just 3 New Wells in 3Q – Shifts Focus to Utica | Marcellus Drilling News --Last week, CNX Resources issued its third quarter 2024 update. The company made $65.5 million in profit for the quarter, compared with a profit of $21.3 million in 3Q23 (more than doubling net income). Production was 134.5 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) in 3Q24 — which works out to 1.46 Bcfe/d — down from 143.4 Bcfe last year (a drop of 6%). Drilling all but stopped during 3Q. The company drilled just three new wells, all of them in the Utica in central PA.

CenterPoint Energy files request to recover investments in pipeline safety and modernization in west central Ohio - CenterPoint Energy's Ohio-based natural gas business today filed an application with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) to recover costs incurred to build a safer and more modern natural gas system for more than 333,000 customers in its 16-county service area in West Central Ohio. The company's proposal includes recovery of costs for critical and continued investments in gas safety, reliability and infrastructure improvements."Our top priority is to continue to strengthen the safety and reliability of the natural gas service we provide to our customers and communities," said Ashley Babcock, CenterPoint's Vice President of Gas Operations, Indiana and Ohio. "From installing new industry-grade pipes and more advanced meters, to improving leak detection and meeting the needs of our customers, these investments support our ability to deliver the level of service that our customers expect and deserve."To meet the region's needs, CenterPoint has invested $830 million in its Ohio natural gas infrastructure since 2018. Key benefits to customers from investments have included:

• Pipeline replacement: Nearly 400 miles of bare steel and cast-iron pipes, along with approximately 70 miles of coated steel, have been replaced.
• System modernization: Approximately 30,000 new advanced meters have been installed to enhance measurement accuracy and integrate safety features.
• Leak detection and mitigation: The deployment of Picarro leak detection technology has improved safety by identifying leaks earlier and reduced methane emissions.
• Service expansion: New service lines and more than 12,500 new gas service installations have been completed, expanding access in residential and business communities while supporting economic growth and development.
• CenterPoint has collaborated with local leaders on transformative projects, such as extending natural gas service to support the Menards manufacturing facility in Fayette County, which brought an $81.5 million investment and 150 new jobs, and the Royal Canin pet food facility in Preble County, attracting $390 million and 224 jobs.
• Transmission line upgrades: Large high-pressure pipelines have been upgraded to meet regulatory standards.

CenterPoint's proposal, which represents the first time in six years the company has sought a rate adjustment, would result in an increase of approximately $23 per month for the average residential customer. The PUCO's review of CenterPoint's request is expected to take several months, with a final decision expected by early 2026. During this time, CenterPoint is committed to engaging with its customers and welcomes public input as part of its commitment to meet the current and future needs of its natural gas customers.

Gas line rupture prompts evacuations in Delaware County, repairs ongoing - FOX 28 Columbus -- A construction crew struck a gas line on Thursday, prompting the evacuation of nearby residents and the closure of the intersection at Joy Avenue and Lake Street. The area remains closed as repairs continue. According to Columbia Gas, approximately 30 homes have been evacuated. Residents reported the gas leak as "very loud." Columbia Gas initially informed residents that the leak would be resolved by 11 a.m. on Friday, but the timeline has now been extended to the evening. Power in the area has been turned off as crews attempt to make repairs. Columbia Gas said in a statement, "Columbia Gas continues to make repairs to a gas line ruptured Thursday and is working with affected residents." The company has set up a phone line at 1-800-344-4077 for residents seeking information on lodging and other reimbursement claims. Columbia Gas expressed hope that residents would be able to return to their homes by this evening. The company advised residents needing to enter their homes for medication, clothing, or other necessities to contact a Columbia Gas employee or a fire department member on-site for assistance. A spokesperson from the Delaware County Fire Department told ABC 6 they are starting to allow some residents back into their houses on Joy Avenue. However, there's still an evacuation zone for some of the homes.

17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 21 – 27 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Oct 21 – 27, there were 17 permits issued to drill Marcellus/Utica wells, up from 14 permits issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had 12 new permits, with five going to Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) in Wyoming County and two each for PennEnergy Resources (Beaver County) and Coterra Energy (Susquehanna County). Single permits were issued to Pennsylvania General Energy, Inflection Energy, and XPR Resources. The Buckeye State (OH) had five new permits, with four going to Gulfport Energy in Belmont County. The other OH permit was for Infinity Natural Resources (INR) in Guernsey County. The Mountain State (WV) issued a big, fat zero new permits last week. BEAVER COUNTY | BELMONT COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | GULFPORT ENERGY | INFLECTION ENERGY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA) | XPR RESOURCES

PA Drops Another Rig to 17-Year Low; National Rig Count Even @ 585 Marcellus Drilling News - The realignment we spoke of several weeks ago about Pennsylvania losing rigs to its neighbors has deepened. Last week, PA lost another rig, going from 13 rigs down to 12 rigs, while Ohio picked up one rig and now has 10 active rigs. West Virginia also operated 10 rigs last week. Just two months ago (as of August 23), PA operated 21 rigs, OH had 9 rigs, and WV had just 5 rigs. This is a massive realignment away from PA to its neighbors. According to Reuters, PA’s rig count is at a 17-year (!) low. What the heck is going on with the mighty PA Marcellus?

Natural Gas and AI Data Centers Provide Unique PA Political Opportunity By Tim Ryan --Artificial Intelligence (AI) is more than the latest buzzword. It’s rising rapidly, permeating across industries, and is already present in our daily lives.Netflix uses AI to personalize recommendations to users, 50% of global organizations reported adopting AI in at least one business area in 2022, and more than half of Americans use voice assistants to receive information.Behind this tech revolution are electricity-thirsty data centers dotting America’s landscape, processing AI, crypto, e-commerce, and cloud computing. The collective rise in demand to our power grid is something not seen in decades.An AI Google search, for example, needs 10 times the amount of energy as a normal Google search, and all of the current data centers worldwide combined consume more power than all but 16 countries.AI alone is expected to add 20% more to US electricity demand by 2030 and Goldman Sachs projects natural gas will cover 60% of demand. Our grid is bound to hit a limit in its current state, according to Microsoft leadership. To provide the steady, reliable, and affordable power these facilities need, natural gas-powered electricity is increasingly the obvious choice. As the second-largest natural gas production state, Pennsylvania is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity quickly, benefit from new job creation and investment, and power our high-tech future if we collectively embrace natural gas as part of that solution. Doing so would be welcome news for trade unions and high-tech professionals alike, alongside local communities who benefit from new tax revenues.It’s clear Vice President Kamala Harris’ thinking has evolved on energy, along with other Democrats across the country. Harris had a front row seat as American natural gas rapidly secured our allies abroad against the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And she understands how critical natural gas is in achieving her Administration’s goals of reshoring critical manufacturing jobs, alongside renewables, that benefit America’s heartland in states like Pennsylvania. Notably natural gas, more than renewables, is the primary source of America’s world-leading carbon reductions over the last two decades and will continue to be a low-carbon solution deployed abroad to replace coal and fight climate change. It is this debate on natural gas: balancing economic strength, technology, global competitiveness, staying ahead of China, and fighting climate change, where Harris can cement her political position as a sensible Democrat who uniquely understands Pennsylvania.The Keystone State is already home to 71 data centers, with hubs in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and has potential to attract even more given its proximity to the Marcellus Shale gas formations that have led Pennsylvania’s energy revolution in recent years. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro has taken notice of this potential, speaking at an AI forum at Carnegie Mellon this month. Data centers that power AI are so energy-intensive and desperate to meet these power demands that a mothballed nuclear plant once set for decommissioning, Three Mile Island Unit 1 near Harrisburg, will be restarted as part of a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft. This is a positive development, but its potential to be replicated is limited. Natural gas is abundant, flexible, and affordable. Some will say to build renewables only instead, but that is simplistic thinking.We’re already far behind the massive and costly 60% expansion of America’s power grid that Princeton University says is needed just to transition our existing grid to a net-zero future. While solar and wind are vital to a clean energy future, their weather dependence cannot fulfill 24/7 power needs.Harris has a track record on aligning natural gas with opportunity. Under her Administration, the U.S. became the global leader of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and was the largest LNG supplier to Europe in 2022 and 2023, stabilizing the economies of our Allies after Russia’s Ukraine invasion.Pennsylvania workers were part of that victory. Other statewide Democrats get it. Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and John Fetterman (D-PA) have stood up to their Party and supported the natural gas industry, and Governor Shapiro has laid out plans for a diverse, resilient electricity grid. Pennsylvanians agree: 74% support building more natural gas infrastructure and 79% said natural gas drilling is important to the state’s economy.Pennsylvania has the natural resources, the infrastructure, and the know-how to power the AI boom and benefit so many across the Commonwealth. Natural gas remains the obvious choice to scale up fast to meet new demands, protect our environment, and support Pennsylvania jobs. Balance is key. AI is the future, and the United States can only lead on it with practical energy policy that starts in key states like Pennsylvania.Presidential candidate Harris would be smart to embrace it.

EQT sells remaining stake in Pennsylvania natgas assets for $1.25 billion (Reuters) - EQT Corp said on Tuesday it would sell its remaining interest in its non-operated natural gas assets in northeast Pennsylvania for $1.25 billion in cash to Equinor.The sale comes just months after EQT sold a 40% interest in the assets to Equinor USA in exchange for the Norway-based company's onshore asset in the Appalachian basin and $500 million in cash.Proceeds from the transaction, which is expected to close in the current quarter, will be used to help EQT shed its debt pile, which it accumulated after completing the $14 billion purchase of pipeline operator Equitrans Midstream in July.Though the acquisition added more than 2,000 miles of pipelines to its portfolio, EQT's total debt increased substantially to $13.8 billion as of Sept. 30, compared to $5.8 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.Equinor will now hold a 40.7% working interest in the gas assets located in the Marcellus shale and will add nearly 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to its near-term U.S. production, the Norwegian firm said in a separate statement.EQT also beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit, benefiting from higher sales volumes, which rose to 581 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) in the three months ended Sept. 30, from 523 bcfe last year.The company raised its total sales volumes forecast to be in the range of 555-605 bcfe in the current quarter, compared to a prior outlook of 515–565 bcfe. Rival Expand Energy which dethroned EQT as the top U.S. producer after its $7.4 billion buy of Southwestern Energy, also posted a surprise profit for the quarter owing to a slight rebound in natural gas prices. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based EQT posted an adjusted profit of 12 cents per share for the quarter, compared with analysts' estimates of 6 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Equinor to acquire additional Pennsylvania Marcellus natural gas interests for $1.25 billion | Oil & Gas Journal --Equinor, through Equinor USA Onshore Properties Inc. and Equinor Natural Gas LLC, will add to its US natural gas portfolio through a $1.25-billion signed deal with EQT Corp. for non-operated interest in the northern Marcellus formation.With the deal, Equinor is acquiring 100% of EQT’s remaining working interest in the northeast Pennsylvania gas assets, which are primarily operated by Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake Energy), the operator said in a release Oct. 29 (OGJ Online, Sept. 26, 2024).The acquisition covers the same acreage included in the swap agreement with EQT announced earlier this year, the operator said in a release Oct. 29 (OGJ Online, Apr. 15, 2024).Through the most-recent deal, Equinor is increasing its average working interest in the northern Marcellus asset to 40.7% from 25.7%. The assets represent about 350 MMcfd of forecasted 2025 net production, EQT Corp. said about the deal as part of its third-quarter earnings release Oct. 29.“We continue to high-grade Equinor’s international portfolio in line with our strategy, improving robustness by adding more natural gas volumes in a core market where we produce with low break-evens and low intensity upstream emissions. We are well positioned in this premium acreage to capitalize on positive long-term demand indicators in the US gas market,” said Philippe Mathieu, executive vice-president for exploration and production international at Equinor. The deal has an effective date of Dec. 31, 2024, and is expected to close in this year’s fourth quarter, subject to required regulatory approvals and clearances.

Blackstone to buy minority stakes in interstate gas pipelines - Private equity firm Blackstone is in advanced negotiations to acquire minority stakes in natural gas producer EQT’s US interstate natural gas pipelines for an estimated $3.5bn, Reuters has reported.The strategic move could assist the natural gas producer in reducing its debt, which escalated following its purchase of Equitrans Midstream, a pipeline operator, in 2024.Citing sources who wished to remain anonymous due to the confidential nature of the discussions,Reuters stated that the investment will be channelled through Blackstone’s credit and insurance division.A deal could be finalised in November/December 2024, provided the ongoing talks do not fall apart.EQT will maintain operational control over the pipelines post-deal.This arrangement would enable Blackstone to earn a steady income, which could be reinvested across its diverse investment strategies, and provide Blackstone with valuable exposure to energy infrastructure assets such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline.The Mountain Valley Pipeline, a 300-mile (482.8km) natural gas conduit extending from West Virginia to Virginia, commenced operations in June 2024 after prolonged legal disputes.A portion of EQT’s interest in the entity owning the Mountain Valley Pipeline is among the most prominent assets included in the current sale.EQT and Blackstone have not commented on the matter.EQT has interests in 940 miles (1,512.8km) of interstate pipelines with the capability to transport 4.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.In July 2024, EQT reported that its pipeline portfolio had generated close to $700m of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.The transaction with Equitrans marked EQT’s transition from an exploration and production entity to a fully integrated natural gas provider, at the cost of accruing $14bn in debt.EQT had previously announced intentions to reduce its debt by $5bn through operational cash flow and asset sales. The company, which agreed in July to sell assets valued at $1.1bn to Equinor, indicated plans to divest minority stakes in its pipelines.Blackstone, familiar with energy infrastructure through its holdings such as Tallgrass Energy and an interest in the Elba Island LNG facility’s controlling company, manages more than $1tn in assets.

DT Midstream expanding Haynesville, Marcellus natural gas pipeline systems - Oil & Gas Journal -DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) has reached final investment decision (FID) on Phase 4 expansion of its Louisiana Energy Access (LEAP) natural gas pipeline system, which will expand its capacity to 2.1-bcfd by first-half 2026. LEAP’s current capacity is 1.9 bcfd.The expansion will use incremental compression and looping and is underpinned by what DTM described as “long-term demand-based contracts with two new customers.” DTM emphasized the system’s role in delivering Haynesville shale production to US Gulf Coast LNG plants in announcing Phase 4 FID.DTM is also expanding a project connecting its Stonewall gas gathering lateral pipeline to EQT Corp.’s 2-bcfd Mountain Valley Pipeline, serving the Marcellus and Utica shales. The expansion, anchored by a long-term agreement with a large privately held producer, will increase Stonewall’s capacity by 100 MMcfd and is expected in service first-half 2026. Stonewall is a 68-mile high-pressure gathering system with 1.5-bcfd capacity. It is a joint venture of DTM (85%) and Antero Midstream Corp. (15%).

Enbridge's Q3 profit more than doubles on acquisition contributions -(Reuters) - Enbridge's third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year ago, the Canadian energy infrastructure company said on Friday, citing incremental contributions from U.S. gas acquisitions, and it raised its estimate of organic growth opportunities. The Calgary-based company, which owns Canada's biggest oil export network and is North America's largest gas utility, said it has C$27 billion ($19.40 billion) of secured growth projects, up from C$24 billion previously.The company reported a profit of C$1.29 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with C$532 million a year earlier.Its adjusted profit of 55 Canadian cents per share missed analysts' estimate by one Canadian cent, according to data compiled by LSEG, partly because of higher financing costs related to the U.S. gas acquisitions.Enbridge had closed a $14 billion acquisition, including debt, of three Dominion Energy utilities — East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas and Public Service Co of North Carolina — by the third quarter.Enbridge's adjusted core profit from gas distribution and storage was up 92.6% at C$522 million in the quarter, helped by the acquisitions, which contributed C$217 million.Steady oil demand also boosted the company's earnings with its Mainline system transporting 2.96 million barrels per day in the quarter. Adjusted core profit of the pipeline network rose 3.2% to C$1.35 billion, helped by higher tolls. Mainline is North America's largest crude oil pipeline network. It transports light and heavy crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products from Edmonton, Alberta to various markets in Canada and the U.S. Midwest.

US Shale Gas Production Declines for the First Time Since 2000 -U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023.The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in the Appalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production. Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth.

Has The Shale Gas Boom Peaked? EIA Signals First Drop In Production - Forbes - Robert Rapier - Oil and gas fields, no matter how productive, eventually decline. Before the transformative impact of the shale boom, U.S. oil production had been steadily falling for decades, while natural gas output had plateaued.But the rise of shale drilling changed everything. Beginning in 2006, U.S. natural gas production surged by an impressive 94%, and by 2009, oil production also turned a corner, ultimately soaring by 170%.U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil. For years, experts have debated how long this shale surge could last. Now, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) hasoffered a clue: U.S. shale gas production, which accounts for 79% of all dry gas output, dropped slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the previous year. Should this pattern hold, 2024 could mark the first recorded decline in U.S. shale gas production since the EIA began tracking it in 2000.Annual U.S. Natural Gas Production 2000-2024. Total U.S. shale output dropped by 1% to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) from January to September 2024, while other dry gas production increased by 6%, averaging 103.3 Bcf/d overall. The decrease is primarily due to declines in the Haynesville (down 12%) and Utica (down 10%) plays, with only the Permian region showing growth (up 10%).Falling natural gas prices, which hit record lows in 2024, contributed to production slowdowns, especially in dry gas regions like the Haynesville. Reduced profitability led several operators to shut down wells, and the number of active rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has significantly declined since late 2022.By September 2024, the Haynesville had only 33 rigs operating—a 53% decrease since January 2023—and the Utica and Marcellus also saw rig count reductions of more than 50% and 36%, respectively.Higher drilling costs in the Haynesville and Utica, along with reduced demand, have further limited production. In September, Haynesville production was 13.0 Bcf/d, down 14% from its peak in 2023. Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024, a 79% drop from 2022's inflation-adjusted high of $9.39/MMBtu.In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, a slight decrease from 2023. Looking ahead to 2025, the agency forecasts a modest rebound, with production expected to reach 104.6 Bcf/d.While the decline in shale production is noteworthy, the potential for future growth remains, contingent on market dynamics and demand.The shale boom reshaped the U.S. energy industry, but recent declines in production suggest the surge may be slowing. Lower gas prices and a reduced number of active rigs have led to a production dip that raises questions about future growth of U.S. shale.As production levels stabilize, market watchers will be keen to see how the industry adapts to evolving economic and environmental factors. Whether this is a temporary dip or a sign of a long-term trend, the future of shale gas production will play a crucial role in shaping the U.S. energy market.

NYSE Threatens Nine Energy Services with Stock Delisting, Again | Marcellus Drilling News --Nine Energy Service, an oilfield services (OFS) company that competes with companies like Halliburton and Baker Hughes, operates in a number of shale basins, including the Marcellus/Utica. Last week, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) informed Nine the company’s stock is in danger of being delisted from the exchange because the company’s average market capitalization over 30 consecutive trading days, as well as stockholders’ equity, has fallen below $50 million. This isn't the first time Nine has been threatened with delisting (see NYSE Threatens Nine Energy Services with Stock Delisting).

What Will the Election Mean for the U.S. LNG Sector? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow. NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, and Jacob Dick, senior editor of LNG, discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector.They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump’s tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. LNG exports. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI – which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing points across North America – works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.

DT Midstream Sanctions LEAP Phase 4 Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion for Haynesville Growth -- DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) has reached a final investment decision (FID) for the Phase 4 expansion of its LEAP natural gas gathering system serving the Haynesville Shale, management said Tuesday. Chart showing Louisiana and DT Midstream's natural gas infrastructure.The LEAP system allows Haynesville gas to reach the Gillis hub and various markets including LNG export plants on the Gulf Coast.The 200 MMcf/d expansion would bring LEAP’s total capacity to 2.1 Bcf/d. The project is underpinned by long-term, demand-based contracts with two LEAP customers and is expected to enter service in the first half of 2026, according to DTM.

As Other Projects Fall Behind, Cheniere Says Corpus Christi LNG Expansion Still Ahead of Schedule - Cheniere Energy Inc. said Thursday that the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project in South Texas remains on track to produce first LNG this year. As the timelines for other North American projects have slipped, CEO Jack Fusco said the company’s contractor Bechtel Corp. is working on an accelerated schedule. He said pre-commissioning activities on Train 1 of the project are advancing, with nearly half the required systems turned over to commissioning and start-up teams. The company expects to introduce natural gas into Train 1 in the coming weeks as it’s been signaling.

US natgas prices dive 10% on mild forecasts, rising output (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 10% on Monday to a one-week low,on forecasts for mild weather through at least mid-November, less demand next week than previously expected and an increase in output in recent days. Another factor weighing on gas prices was a 6% drop in oil futures on Monday after a limited Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend. O/R On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 25.1 cents, or 9.8%, to settle at $2.309 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 18. That was the biggest daily percentage loss since the contract lost about 17% on Jan. 30. Futures for December NGZ24, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 23 cents to $2.86 per mmBtu. With mild weather squeezing demand and output rising, analysts projected utilities likely injected more gas into storage than normal last week fora second week in a row for the first time since October 2023. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Looking ahead, the market is showing signs of giving up on thoughts that extreme cold could cause prices to spike this winter with futures for March 2025 trading at a record low premium over April 2025 NGH25-J25 of just 5 cents per mmBtu. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said summer prices should not trade above winter. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. But on a daily basis, output was up about 1.6 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary eight-week high of 102.8 bcfd on Sunday. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities so far this year, analysts projected average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Looking forward, however, analysts projected producers would boost output to meet rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand with two new export plants - Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi stage 3 expansion in Texas - expected to enter service later this year. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.1 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Oil Prices Rebound, But Henry Hub Nat Gas Still Taking a Beating -U.S oil and gas prices have taken divergent trajectories, with oil prices rebounding while natural gas prices have continued to fall in Thursday’s session. Oil and gas prices crashed on Monday, with benchmark crude oil futures falling to their biggest one-day decline in more than two years after Israel launched limited attacks on Iran that disappointed markets, followed by Tehran stating it would not retaliate with a direct response. However, oil prices have pared back some of the losses with nearly a percentage point in gains.Brent crude for December delivery was trading at $73.17 per barrel at 12.32 am ET, up from their 2-month low of $70.97 on Tuesday while WTI crude for December delivery was up 0.85% on the day to trade at $69.19 per barrel.Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered havepointed out that oil markets are overlooking the vulnerability of Iran’s energy infrastructure to future attacks. Three days ago, the Guardian reported that Israel used precision air and drone strikes to principally target air defense systems protecting crucial oil and gas facilities, as well as military sites linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missile production. Meanwhile, natural gas futures have dropped below $2.8/MMBtu as supply concerns eased, after losing 11% earlier in the week, and down another 4.15% at the time of writing. Meteorologists have forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through at least November 9, giving utilities an opportunity to inject more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Further, LNG feedgas supply is expected to stay below record levels for the next few weeks due to maintenance at various facilities including Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) and Cameron LNG. U.S. gas production from the lower 48 states averaged 102.8 Bcf/d over the weekend, close to 103 Bcf/d summer high and up about 2 Bcf/d from autumn lows. In its October short-term energy outlook (STEO), the EIA forecast Henry Hub spot prices would average $3.06/MMBtu in 2025. On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicted in the October STEO that Q4 2024 Henry Hub spots prices would average $2.81/MMBtu, and $3.16/MMBtu in Q1 2025, dipping lower in Q2 and then up to $3.35/MMBtu in Q4.

US natgas prices drop 5% on mild weather forecasts, big storage injection (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Thursday due to an expected bigger-than-usual storage build and forecasts for mild weather to continue through mid-November. That mild weather should keep heating demand lower than usual for this time of year and allow utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for at least a few more weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 78 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 25. That was a little less than the 82-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 67 bcf for this time of year. It was the first time utilities added more gas into storage than usual for two weeks in a row since October 2023. Those injections boosted stockpiles to about 5% above the five-year average. Prior to last week, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 consecutive weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 13.8 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $2.707 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). losed at its highest price since Oct. 4. For the month, the front-month was down about 7% after soaring 37% in September. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compared with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week low of 101.0 bcfd on Thursday. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities, analysts projected average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 15. But even warmer-than-normal weather in early November is cooler than warmer-than-normal weather in late October. So with seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.5 bcfd this week to 100.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Kinder Morgan, TC Energy Approved for Bakken Natural Gas Egress Projects - FERC this month cleared a pair of natural gas pipeline projects by TC Energy Corp. and Kinder Morgan Inc. designed to add Bakken Shale takeaway capacity with access to natural gas trading markets in Colorado. A map of Kinder Morgan's Bakken Xpress Pipeline from North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming to Colorado, with key NGI spot prices for the region listed in a table. Expand Kinder Morgan’s Wyoming Interstate Co. LLC (WIC) would provide 300,000 Dth/d of firm transportation capacity along its system and three other pipelines in a project dubbed Bakken Xpress. Hess and Oneok Rockies Midstream LLC signed on as shippers during an open season for 430,000 Dth/d in 2023. Under a certificate approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (No. CP23-543), WIC will lease capacity on TC’s Northern Border and Bison pipeline systems and Fort Union Gas Gathering.

Peoples Gas pipeline program will cost another $12.8 billion to complete, report says- As the Illinois Commerce Commission nears a decision on the fate of the paused Peoples Gas pipeline replacement program following a yearlong review, a study released Tuesday for the Citizens Utility Board warns that completing the work would cost another $12.8 billion — topping recently revised utility projections by more than $5 billion. Peoples Gas would need to impose record-breaking 7% annual rate increases over the next 15 years to cover that cost, effectively doubling delivery charges for its customers by 2040, the target completion date for the Safety (formerly System) Modernization Program, according to the Groundwork Data report commissioned by CUB. “Our analysis finds that resuming the SMP at full funding levels puts Peoples Gas on an unsustainable trajectory with respect to revenue requirements and customer rate increases,” the report concluded. Peoples Gas, which was provided a copy of the report before its release, refuted many of the findings — including the remaining cost — and disagreed with the conclusion that completing the pipeline replacement program was financially untenable for the company and its customers. At the same time, the utility acknowledged that the projected price tag has gone up by billions of dollars since the program was paused by the ICC last fall. “Unfortunately, the delay caused by the ICC’s decision to pause the safety work will likely have some cost impacts,” Peoples Gas spokesperson David Schwartz said in a statement. Groundwork Data is a New York-based consulting firm focused on the transition to clean energy, a government-mandated change that the report said will reduce demand for natural gas before the pipeline project is completed, increasing the cost burden for remaining Peoples customers. The ICC is expected to issue an order in January on the scope of the pipeline replacement program moving forward, but Tuesday’s report is too late to be filed as part of the proceedings, a CUB spokesperson said. Launched in 2011, the program to replace 2,000 miles of aging iron pipes below Chicago streets was plagued from the outset by delays and budget overruns. More than a decade later, the project is 38% complete and Peoples Gas says it will take until 2040 to finish — if the ICC approves its resumption. The pipeline replacement program was originally projected to cost $2.6 billion and take 20 years to complete. Those projections have been upwardly revised several times since Milwaukee-based WEC Energy Group acquired Peoples Gas in 2015. Peoples Gas has spent $3.3 billion on the pipeline replacement program to date, Schwartz told the Tribune. The utility’s 891,000 Chicago customers have borne that cost. Last year, Peoples Gas asked for a record $402 million rate hike for 2024, in large part to continue funding the pipeline replacement program after a 10-year legislative surcharge enabling it to automatically pass the costs along to customers expired. The ICC reduced the rate increase and paused the program for the entirety of 2024 to conduct an investigation. At the time the program was paused, Peoples said it would cost $8 billion to complete, including the $3.3 billion already spent. That was at the low end of an $8 billion to $11 billion range that Peoples had filed with the ICC under the new owners in 2015. During the review process with the ICC, Peoples Gas revised its projections, pegging its preferred pathway forward at $7.2 billion in additional spending to complete the project. That would put the entire project cost at $10.5 billion over 30 years. The utility also presented two alternative approaches during the review process, the most expensive of which would cost nearly $13 billion to finish the work. “Our proposal to restart work — if approved by state regulators — would cost $5.5 billion less than what CUB’s allies proposed, and would keep total costs within the estimate-range we provided to the ICC in 2015,” Schwartz said in a statement. The Groundwork study said it will take $12.8 billion to complete the work — on top of the $3.3 billion already funneled into the program — with Peoples customers paying the tab through 2040 and potentially beyond.

Trump and Harris support fracking. What does it mean for Illinois? --Steve Harmon’s house shakes when the mining company 100 yards away blasts into what was once farmland. His patio is constantly covered in a thin layer of fine white sand. He and his neighbors also had their groundwater wells replaced two years ago after iron leached into their drinking water. This is the lesser-known side of the fracking industry that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have vocally supported on the campaign trail. Despite a recent proliferation of clean energy sources, both presidential candidates say a domestic supply of emissions-intensive fossil fuels is essential for national security in what political pundits say is an appeal to Pennsylvania voters. The swing state was at the center of the fracking industry boom during the 2000s that transformed the United States from being dependent on foreign fuel sources to the world’s top oil and natural gas producer.Fracking enables the extraction of oil and gases encased in rock formations thousands of feet underground that are not easily permeable via traditional drilling methods. The process releases large amounts of methane, a gas with 80 times more warming power than carbon dioxide in the short term. Beyond contributing to climate change, the fracking industry has also had wide-reaching impacts on land use and community health, from drilling operations in Pennsylvania to sand mines in Illinois. LaSalle County in north central Illinois sits on rich deposits of silica sand, the optimal ingredient for a pressurized cocktail of sand, water and chemicals that is essential for fracking.“The oil and gas companies have tried to make fracking seem like a drilling technique but we’re really talking about a vast transformation of rural landscapes into industrial ones,” said Megan Hunter, Earthjustice senior attorney.The cocktail is injected into bedrock to fracture it and force once-trapped oil and natural gas to the surface. Most of this drilling has happened in Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Texas, which have richer fossil fuel reserves and less restrictive regulations than Illinois.However, little attention and oversight has been given to the sand mines in LaSalle County that proliferated because of drilling operations in these other states.LaSalle County’s sand mining industry, which dates back to the late 1800s and historically provided sand for glassmaking, boomed in tandem with fracking in the 2000s and 2010s. Three new mines opened — including Northern White Sand, the one next to Harmon’s house, and another bordering a state park — and three mines significantly expanded.“There was no increased demand from the glass industry, this was an entirely fracking-driven proposition,” said Ted Auch, the Midwest program director of the nonprofit FracTracker Alliance. He estimates that the mined acres in LaSalle County have nearly doubled since 2007. Today, sand mines occupy nearly 4,500 acres, equivalent to 600 football fields. Most of the land they expanded to had once been farms. “We’ve got some of the best black dirt around. Everyone out here knows farming is so good around here because the guy upstairs put eight inches of black dirt here,” said another lifelong LaSalle County resident and farmer Michael Rogowski. “The sand mines don’t look at it that way. They just look at it as a place where they’re going to make some money.”

EIA: Surge in Iraqi oil exports to the US - Iraqi oil exports to the United States increased last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.) The EIA reported on Sunday that the average US crude oil imports from ten key countries reached 5.647 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, an increase of 640.000 bpd from the previous week’s average of 5.007 million bpd. The report said that Iraq’s oil exports to the US averaged 237.000 bpd last week, which represented 167.000 bpd more than the previous week’s average of 70.000 bpd. Canada led the oil imports to the US last week, averaging 3.719 million bpd, followed by Columbia with 365.000 bpd, Venezuela came next with 289.000 bpd, and Brazil with 285.000 bpd. According to the EIA data, the US imported 258.000 bpd from Mexico, 150.000 bpd from Saudi Arabia, 138.000 bpd from Ecuador, 125.000 bpd from Nigeria, and 89.000 bpd from Libya.

Biden Administration Endorses Approval of Texas Oil Port - The Environmental Protection Agency has given its blessing for a proposed Texas oil port capable of exporting 1 million barrels of oil a day, even as the terminals face increasing scrutiny from environmental activists, progressive lawmakers and local officials. In a letter from the EPA made public by opponents of the project Thursday, the agency said it “does not object to the issuance of a license” for Sentinel Midstream LLC’s Texas Gulflink Deepwater Port. The company, which is backed by private equity firm Cresta Fund Management, still needs final approval via a record of decision from the Transportation Department’s Maritime Administration. The decision is expected by December 12. The project, proposed off the coast of Brazoria County, Texas, would allow oversized oil tankers known as very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, to load as much as 85,000 barrels of crude oil an hour. The Biden administration in April signed off on a similar nearby export facility by Enterprise Products Partners with the capacity to export 2 million barrels of oil a day and applications for two other deepwater oil export terminals are pending. The approvals come as large vessels are increasingly being used on shorter routes and as massive growth in US oil exports is expected by the end of the decade. The facilities have drawn fire from progressive Democratic lawmakers, local officials and climate activists who have been pressuring President Joe Biden to halt the projects arguing they contradict his administration’s commitment to environmental justice and fighting climate change. GulfLink alone would be responsible for more than 100 million tons of upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions per year, according to Earthworks, an environmental group opposed to the project. Sentinel Midstream didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The EPA, in its letter dated October 25, said the agency “recommends continued emphasis on ensuring environmental justice and climate change considerations be included in the licensing project for the protection of overburdened communities.”

ONEOK's Acquisitions Pay Off with Increased Earnings - A day after showing an increase in third-quarter income partly thanks to acquisitions over the last year, ONEOK announced the closing of its latest deal to buy Medallion Midstream for about $2.6 billion. ONEOK announced the pending $5.9 billion deal for Medallion and EnLink Midstream in August. The $3.3 billion EnLink acquisition closed on Oct. 15 following the federally required Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period. Medallion’s crude pipeline network will complement ONEOK’s existing gathering and long-haul pipelines, said Sheridan Swords, ONEOK executive vice president for commercial liquids and natural gas gathering and processing, during the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 30."With the acquisition of Medallion, the largest privately-held crude gathering and transportation system in the Permian's Midland Basin, we continue our demonstrated track record of intentional and disciplined growth," said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and CEO, in a press release on Oct. 31.The Medallion acquisition will continue to boost the company’s revenue, which already saw a boost in the third quarter due to the continued integration of previous acquisitions.ONEOK completed its acquisition of Magellan Midstream, one of the largest midstream companies in the U.S., in September 2023. The company is still identifying synergies from the merger, Norton said. In 2024, before adding EnLink and Magellan, ONEOK added an NGL pipeline network from Easton Energy in southeast Texas and expanded a refined products pipeline to the Denver area in July.The additional assets brought in extra revenue. ONEOK’s net income from July to September was $693 million, a 52.6% increase by $239 million year-over-year.The company said the increase was driven by commercial strength in the Rockies, increased natural gas transport and the addition of a new refined products and crude segment.In the Rockies, the company reported a 7% increase in NGL raw feed throughput and a 5% increase in natural gas processed. Overall, the natural gas pipeline segment saw a 22% increase in EBITDA.ONEOK’s increased gas pipeline traffic shows the difference between basin production. Natural gas traffic out of the crude-focused Permian, where ONEOK is connected, rose in 2024 as E&P businesses focused on oil. But in the gas-focused Appalachian shales, most E&Ps have curtailed or flattened production since the beginning of 2024.

ExxonMobil, Chevron Beat Expectations on Higher Permian Production - Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. beat analysts’ estimates as rising oil production from the Permian Basin helped offset weaker crude prices. Exxon’s third-quarter adjusted profit exceeded expectations by a nickel on Friday, while Chevron surpassed estimates by 11 cents. That followed mixed results from European rivals Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc. A 20 percent decline in oil prices since early April coupled with a bleak 2025 outlook is testing Big Oil’s ability to stick to buyback commitments dating back to the post-Covid crude rally. While Exxon had ample cash flow to cover such payouts, Chevron’s fell short, forcing the supermajor to rely on borrowing. Exxon rose 1.1 percent in pre-market trading. Chevron climbed 2.5 percent. Exxon is the best-performing oil major this year, rising more than 15 percent even as international crude prices declined. North America’s largest energy explorer demonstrated it has more oil and natural gas production growth — and at lower cost — than peers. Exxon increased dividends for the 42nd consecutive year to 99 cents a share, higher than the 97-cent Bloomberg Dividend Projection. Exxon was able to “fully fund” dividend payouts and share repurchases with cash flow without resorting to debt, Chief Financial Officer Kathy Mikells said during an interview. The company also has a $27 billion cash pile and a net-debt-to-capital ratio of just 5 percent, leaving it in a “strong position” ahead of any oil-market downturn, she said. “We have done a lot of work to fundamentally improve the underlying earnings power of the business and that’s going to put us in really good stead,” Mikells said. Exxon’s fast-growing oil developments in Guyana and the Permian Basin are producing crude for less than $35 a barrel at a time when a barrel fetches more than $70, and Exxon is working on several gas-export projects in Texas, Papua New Guinea and Mozambique. It’s now the biggest producer in the Permian region after its $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. earlier this year. As for Chevron, the explorer expects to close asset sales in Canada, Congo and Alaska by the end of the year as part of a plan to raise as much as $15 billion from divestments by 2028. The driller also is targeting as much as $3 billion of cost reductions by the end of 2026. Chevron’s oil and natural gas output increased 7 percent from a year earlier, with production in the US Permian Basin touching a new quarterly record. It also commenced output from Anchor, the first in a series of new Gulf of Mexico investments. Third-quarter dividends and buybacks amounted to $7.7 billion, outpacing the period’s $5.6 billion in free cash flow. Earlier this year, Chevron pledged to repurchase $17.5 billion of shares annually, or about 6 percent of its market value, making it one of the biggest buybacks in the industry. Management has indicated it’s willing to fund the payout with borrowed money if necessary because the company’s debt is currently well below its medium-term target. But analysts at Citigroup Inc. said explorers with the highest buybacks such as Chevron and Equinor ASA may “need to reset distributions” in response to lower oil prices. “These negative rate-of-change stories will be seen as an issue for some investors,” Citi’s Alastair Syme wrote in an Oct. 23 note. Chevron stock has underperformed Exxon this year amid an arbitration battle that’s stalled the $53 billion deal to buy Hess Corp. New projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Kazakhstan will deliver meaningful cash flow from next year but in the meantime Chevron is heavily reliant on the Permian Basin, where about half its position involves stakes in wells operated by other companies. The company has also been embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the state of California over refining regulations that it claims add to costs and gasoline prices. Chevron announced plans to relocate its corporate headquarters to Houston from the San Francisco Bay area earlier this year after 145 years of being based in the Golden State.

Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request - Oil and gas tycoons made significant contributions to the Trump campaign after the former president asked the industry for $1 billion to support his reelection bid — and reportedly said it would be a “deal” for them to do so. A source told The Hill earlier this year the $1 billion request at an April fundraiser was not framed as any sort of quid pro quo. Nevertheless, Democrats have described the incident as corruption and said they would investigate it, and this was the first election where several oil industry donors opened their pockets for Trump.Two executives who reportedly attended Trump oil industry fundraisers this spring later made significant contributions to Trump-aligned political committees — something they hadn’t done in previous presidential cycles.Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco donated $250,000 to the joint fundraising Trump 47 Committee in June, according to records from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The committee then distributed $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $243,400 to the Republican National Committee (RNC).As a joint fundraising committee, the Trump 47 Committee allocates funds to the Trump campaign and the RNC and, once the contribution limits are maxed out, to other participating political committees.Fusco attended a dinner where Trump told energy executives they should raise $1 billion to support his return to the presidency and that doing so would be a “deal” because of the money they would save on taxes and regulations, according to The Washington Post.The Post reported that other attendees were executives from companies, including Occidental Petroleum, though it did not name them.In July, Occidental President and CEO Vicki Hollub appears to have donated $41,300 to the RNC through the Trump 47 Committee, according to the contribution memo, and another $41,300 to the RNC on the same day. Campaign finance records show she gave $6,600 to the Trump campaign and $5,000 to Save America, Trump’s leadership PAC, through Trump 47.The FEC’s website lists “retired” as the employer of the Hollub who made the $41,300 donations, but she shares the middle initial and mailing address of the Hollub who leads Occidental, according to other FEC receipts. Some of the other donations from Hollub do not list an employer at all, but still list the same mailing address.Separately, the Post reported that at a different fundraiser in May, Trump promised oil and gas companies he would reduce Federal Trade Commission (FTC) scrutiny of their mergers and acquisitions.Trump specifically promised Occidental better treatment after Hollub complained the agency is delaying Occidental’s acquisition of oil and gas producer CrownRock and probed her phone, according to the Post. A spokesperson for Occidental did not respond to The Hill’s requests for comment and clarification. A Cheniere Energy spokesperson declined to comment.The Guardian and the Post reported that Hollub, alongside Energy Transfer Partners’s Kelcy Warren and Continental Resources’s Harold Hamm co-hosted the May fundraiser for Trump. Hamm, a major Trump donor, also reportedly organized the April fundraiser.While Hamm supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley earlier this election cycle, he backed Trump in 2020 and 2016. Hamm gave a total of $320,000 to the Trump Victory PAC, the former president’s joint fundraising PAC, in 2020 and a total of $449,400 in 2016.

New Survey Shows Grim Outlook For Oil Markets -A Reuters poll released Thursday paints a lackluster future for oil in 2025, with a cocktail of sluggish demand growth and supply glut concerns pulling prices down. Analysts now see Brent crude averaging $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025— a steady downgrade from earlier projections. The pessimistic shift stems from a trio of factors. China’s lukewarm demand, despite its role as the world’s top oil consumer, casts a long shadow. Meanwhile, oil supplies from key producers are poised to swell, especially with OPEC+ eyeing an output hike in December. And the geopolitical storms that once rattled markets, particularly fears of escalations in the Middle East, have calmed. As Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, noted, these flare-ups may stir oil prices, but the risk of real disruption is, well, limited. U.S. crude also follows suit, with prices expected to hover at $76.73 a barrel this year and down to $72.73 in 2025. This downtrend marks the sixth straight month of reduced expectations for the year’s average prices. Brent’s current crude price is $73.25, with WTI at $69.55 per barrel—up about 1% on the day, but down based on month-ago levels. For 2025, the poll hints at a slight bump in global oil demand by roughly 1-1.5 million barrels per day, though it’s not exactly the cavalry. 2024 global demand is expected to be between 0.8 million and 1.2 million bpd, the poll showed. Seasonal factors may prompt OPEC+ to delay their planned December increase until spring 2025, as Stratas Advisors’ president John Paisie told Reuters, saying “We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors.” When the geopolitical winds ease and China’s economy stalls, crude prices might just hit the snooze button for a while.

Oil giant Shell posts small drop in third-quarter profit to $6 billion -- British oil giant Shell on Thursday posted a small year-on-year drop to a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit, partly owing to a sharp drop in crude prices and to lower refining margins. The energy company reported adjusted earnings of $6 billion for the July-September period, beating analyst expectations of $5.3 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Shell posted adjusted earnings of $6.3 billion in the second quarter and $6.2 billion in the third quarter of 2023. Shell said it will buy back a further $3.5 billion of its shares over the next three months, while holding its dividend unchanged at 34 cents per share. Net debt came in at $35.2 billion at the end of the third quarter, down from $40.5 billion when compared to the same period last year. Shares of the London-listed firm have fallen around 3% year-to-date. Ahead of the firm's third-quarter earnings, Shell warned that refining profit margins had dropped by more than 28% on a quarterly basis, while trading results for its chemicals and oil products division were expected to be lower. British rival BP on Tuesday posted its weakest quarterly earnings in nearly four years, weighed down by lower refining margins. BP reported underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.3 billion for the third quarter. That beat analyst expectations — but reflected a steep drop when compared to the same period a year earlier. Oil prices tumbled over 17% in the third quarter amid concerns over the outlook for global oil demand.

NFE’s Fast LNG Ramps Up Production, Feed Gas Demand for Agua Dulce Natural Gas Hub - After nearly four months of operation, New Fortress Energy Inc.’s (NFE) Fast LNG offshore facility in Mexico has ramped up to full liquefaction operations, adding demand for feed gas from the Agua Dulce hub. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Agua Dulce natural gas price vs Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline flows. NFE, which began producing liquefied natural gas at its Altamira, Mexico facility in July, disclosed Friday that the modular facility is now producing “at or above its” 1.4 million ton/year nameplate capacity. “We are excited that we have achieved full nameplate performance, and believe there is room for further production gains as we continue to commission our facility,” Barry Clayton, senior vice president of Fast LNG Operations, said.

Could the U.S. Election Have Ripple Effects on Natural Gas Trade South of the Border? - The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is being watched closely by those involved in the burgeoning natural gas trade that crosses the border. Bar chart showing yearly value of U.S.-Mexico energy trade. The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was $66.5 billion in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This was down from $77.8 billion in 2022, adjusted for inflation, principally because of lower fuel prices that offset the increase in the volume of energy trade between the two countries. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.57/MMBtu in 2023, about a 62% drop from the 2022 averages, according to EIA. This year, gas prices also have remained low. NGI’s spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price has averaged $2.124 through Tuesday, according to Daily Historical Data.

Global Natural Gas Prices Decline After Israeli Attack Avoids Iranian Energy Targets — LNG Recap European natural gas prices fell on Monday after supply fears that had gripped the market last week eased, sapping bullish momentum. LNG Export Flow Tracker detailing LNG shipping ports, export data, and natural gas analytics within the global energy market, showcasing energy data visualization and market trends. The November and December Title Transfer Facility contracts both fell by about 2% on Monday after finishing at a record for the year of $13.77/MMBtu and $13.87, respectively, last Friday. Tensions in the Middle East, unplanned outages in the United States and Norway, along with a colder forecast all combined to drive prices higher last week.

TotalEnergies Expects European Market ‘Tension’ to Elevate Natural Gas, LNG Prices Through 2025 - TotalEnergies SE is betting on delays in new LNG capacity – mostly concentrated in the United States – to keep European gas prices elevated into next year. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) global LNG futures settles through 2027 chart. CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the cascading impacts of an LNG development slowdown during the year is expected to push major supply additions into late 2026 at the earliest. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions and supply volatility should keep Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas prices “more or less the same,” helping boost global benchmarks as LNG competition grows. “I think I would say TTF would be around an average of” $12/MMBtu in 2025, “because, again, we don't see in 2025 any additional capacity that would suddenly change the fundamentals of what I would say is a market still under tension,” Pouyanné said during the company’s third quarter earnings call.

Egypt Snaps Up More U.S. LNG as Search for Spot Cargoes Continues - Egypt is reportedly back in the global LNG market to buy up to 20 LNG cargoes for the first quarter of 2025. Egypt annual LNG imports. Despite closing a September tender for 20 LNG cargoes, the country has continued to struggle to meet domestic gas demand and is expected to need to import more gas, according to news media reports. Egypt again halted LNG exports and resumed imports of the super-chilled fuel in April following a six year import break. State-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. (EGAS) and Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC) have reportedly bought up to 50 LNG cargoes so far this year.

Türkiye's natural gas imports up 5.74% in August - Türkiye's natural gas imports increased by 5.74% in August, compared to the same month in 2023, according to data from Türkiye's energy watchdog on Monday. Natural gas imports in August reached 3.89 billion cubic meters (bcm), up from approximately 3.68 bcm last year, Türkiye's Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) said in its monthly natural gas market report. In August, 3.50 bcm of imports were made through pipelines and 384.73 million cubic meters (mcm) was imported via liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia was the largest natural gas supplier to Türkiye, providing 2.27 bcm, while Azerbaijan and Iran followed with 742.24 mcm and 491.34 mcm, respectively. Algeria exported 384.73 mcm of LNG to Türkiye in August. The country's total gas consumption increased to 3.38 bcm in August, up by 3.61% compared to the same period last year. Household consumption rose by 4.26% to 290.32 mcm in August, while gas consumption in power plants decrease by 9.4% to 1.48 bcm during the same period. The natural gas storage volume in August declined by 17.7% to around 4.32 bcm, compared to 5.25 bcm in August 2023.

Shell’s Global LNG Portfolio Expanding as New Buyers Step Up, but 2025 Still ‘Difficult to Call’ -The No. 1 global LNG trader has “seen some good buying this year,” particularly in the Asia Pacific and Europe, Shell plc CEO Wael Sawan told investors on Thursday. Global map showing Shell plc's major projects. However, the outlook for 2025 is “difficult to call,” he said during the third quarter conference call, “given the volatility and the geopolitical context. But I think it’s fair to say that the market…continues to show balance, at least through the next year, on a physical basis.” Interest continues to be solid for LNG, in particular from China, India and Europe.

ExxonMobil Eyeing More Low Carbon Ventures as Natural Gas, Oil Operations Expand -- Natural gas and oil still rule at ExxonMobil, but CEO Darren Woods on Friday made clear that the energy transition to lower carbon is not limiting growth. It is, in fact, helping to expand it, he told investors. Woods discussed how the integrated major is taking its burgeoning gas and oil business and improving it, opening options to move less intensive carbon dioxide (CO2) supply to global markets while opening the pipeline of new ventures. Traditional natural gas and oil supply continues to expand, especially in the Permian Basin and in Guyana. The move to gain share in the new energy markets, in alignment with fossil fuel development, is running in parallel in a crackdown on CO2 emissions, Woods said.

Ecopetrol pipeline pauses pumping in Colombia after explosives attack causes oil spill (Reuters) -A pipeline moving oil from the Cira Infantas field in Colombia was hit with explosives early on Wednesday, state-run producer Ecopetrol said, causing it to pause pumping at the site after the attack caused an oil spill.

ExxonMobil Agrees to Sell Argentina Shale Oil Assets to Pluspetrol -Exxon Mobil Corp. has agreed to sell most of its assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale patch to Pluspetrol SA, according to people familiar with the matter. The province of Neuquen, where the assets are located, has yet to sign off on the deal, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Spokespeople for Exxon and Neuquen didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. EconoJournal first reported Exxon’s agreement to sell to Pluspetrol. Exxon’s Vaca Muerta oil assets — in particular a tract called Bajo del Choique-La Invernada — have been highly sought-after by Argentine drillers. Exxon owns the assets with minority partner QatarEnergy. Exxon is exiting the Vaca Muerta to focus efforts elsewhere, including Guyana, even as momentum in the formation accelerates under the business-friendly government of President Javier Milei. Milei is ending the cap on the price of oil traded domestically to bring it in line with exports, while pipeline build-outs are boosting capacity for crude shipments. Pluspetrol is controlled by two Argentine families. Its South American drilling operations include a natural gas field in Peru and existing acreage in the Vaca Muerta.

Nigeria Sees Objections to Shell Oil Asset Sale Resolved Soon - Nigeria’s upstream oil regulator found some issues with Shell’s proposed sale of its onshore assets to a consortium of local companies but they should be resolved soon, said Olu Verheijen , President Bola Tinubu’s special adviser on energy. “I am sure that in short order it will be resolved with the regulator in a way that addresses our own objectives to continue to accelerate exits for international oil companies,” Verheijen said during a call with the energy reporters’ association on Wednesday.

Oil spill in Singapore waters during bunkering operation -There was an oil spill off Changi to the east of Singapore on 28 October during in a bunkering operation with a bulk carrier. The Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) said an oil spill had taken place at around 5:40pm local time on 28 October during a bunkering operation between a Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier Ines Corrado and licensed bunker tanker. The authority said that the bunkering ceased immediately. The MPA said an estimated 5 tonnes of bunker fuel had overflowed during the bunker operation with bulker. Read an update on the bunker spill “MPA craft arrived at about 5.50pm and sprayed dispersants. Relevant government agencies have been alerted to keep a lookout for any oil sighting along the shores,” the MPA said in a statement. The name of bunker tanker was not disclosed. The MPA said that there was no impact to navigational traffic. In an update MPA said: "As at 8am this morning, there is no oil sighted at sea in the vicinity of the incident and ashore." It is the third oil spill reported in Singapore waters this year. In June this year more than 400 tonnes of very low sulphur fuel oil were spilt when Netherlands-flagged dredger Vox Maxima, suffering a sudden loss of engine and steering control, hit stationary bunker vessel Marine Honour at Pasir Panjang Terminal. On 20 October there was an oil leak from a Shell land-based pipeline between Bukom Island and Bukom Kecil. The latest bunkering spill comes at a time when pilots and trials are taking place on the safe bunkering of alternative fuels such as ammonia which poses a different risk to oil spills due to its high toxicity. Singapore is the world's largest bunkering port.

Bunker oil spill stops after Singapore incident - The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) confirmed that oil which overflowed during a bunkering operation from the receiving Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier, INES CORRADO, has stopped. MPA was informed of an oil spill off Changi during a bunkering operation between a Bahamas-flagged container vessel and a licensed bunker tanker. An estimated 5 tonnes of oil was reported to have overflowed as a result of the incident that occurred on 28 October, and the bunkering operations ceased immediately. MPA craft upon arrival sprayed dispersants. In addition, relevant government agencies were alerted to keep a lookout for any oil sighting along the shores. Nevertheless, there was no impact to navigational traffic. As of 29 October, there is no oil sighted at sea in the vicinity of the incident or ashore. Furthermore, as a precautionary measure, a Current Buster has been deployed off Changi to recover oil on water, if sighted. The Malaysian authorities have been alerted to keep a lookout for oil sightings with MPA to investigate the incident.

Petroleum Exports: Petroleum product exports soar 34.9% in September; crude imports rise by 6% -- India's crude oil production witnessed a dip in September 2024, with the indigenous crude oil and condensate output standing at 2.3 million metric tonnes (MMT), marking a 4% decline compared to the same period last year, as per data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). Oil India Limited (OIL) contributed 0.3 MMT, while ONGC recorded 1.5 MMT, and production from Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) and Revenue Sharing Contracts (RSC) totaled 0.5 MMT. Despite the drop in production, total crude oil processed in the country rose to 21.3 MMT, up by 4.4% compared to September 2023. Of this, public sector units (PSUs) and joint ventures (JVs) processed 14 MMT, while private refiners handled 7.3 MMT. Indigenous crude oil processing was 2.1 MMT, while imported crude oil accounted for 19.2 MMT. Notably, crude oil processing for the April-September FY 2024-25 period grew by 1.8% compared to the same period in FY 2023-24. Production of petroleum products surged to 22.7 MMT in September 2024, registering a 5.8% increase from the previous year. Refinery production accounted for 22.4 MMT, while fractionator output was 0.3 MMT. Among petroleum products, high-speed diesel (HSD) dominated with a 39.4% share, followed by motor spirit (MS) at 17%, naphtha at 6.4%, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) at 6.7%, pet coke at 5%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at 4.4%. The PPAC report also highlighted a 6% rise in crude oil imports in September 2024 compared to the same month last year. For the April-September period of FY 2024-25, crude oil imports saw a 3.9% increase. Petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) product imports grew by 2.9% in September and 10.3% during April-September FY 2024-25, driven primarily by increased imports of LPG, pet coke, and lubricants. On the export front, POL products saw a significant jump of 34.9% in September 2024 compared to the same month the previous year. For the April-September period of FY 2024-25, exports rose by 3.3%. The rise in exports was primarily due to higher shipments of pet coke, carbon black feedstock (CBFS), fuel oil (FO), and ATF. The data highlights the changing dynamics in India’s oil sector, emphasizing the country's growing reliance on imports and its expanding export market.

India’s reliance on imported oil, natural gas grows as stagnant domestic production lags demand growth India’s reliance on imported crude oil and natural gas grew further in the first half of the current financial year as the delta between consumption growth and the more or less stagnant domestic production continued to widen. The country’s oil import dependency in April-September (H1) was 88.2 per cent, up from 87.6 per cent in the year-ago period and 87.8 per cent for the full financial year 2023-24 (FY24), per latest data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). Import dependency in the case of natural gas was 51.5 per cent in the first six months of FY25, up from 46.8 per cent a year ago and 47.1 per cent for the full FY24. India’s energy demand has been rising rapidly, leading to higher oil and gas imports. Reliance on imported oil has been growing continuously over the past few years, except in FY21, when demand was suppressed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s oil import dependency stood at 87.8 per cent in FY24, 87.4 per cent in FY23, 85.5 per cent in FY22, 84.4 per cent in FY21, 85 per cent in FY20, and 83.8 per cent in FY19. Heavy dependence on imported crude oil makes the Indian economy vulnerable to global oil price volatility, apart from having a bearing on the country’s trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, rupee’s exchange rate, and inflation. The government wants to reduce India’s reliance on imported crude oil but sluggish domestic oil output in the face of incessantly growing demand for petroleum products has been the biggest roadblock. In the case of natural gas, the government wants to increase its consumption and share in the country’s primary energy mix to 15 per cent by 2030 from over 6 per cent currently. The rationale behind the push for natural gas, even though it would lead to higher gas imports, is rather simple. Festive offer Natural gas is far less polluting than conventional hydrocarbons like crude oil and coal, and is usually cheaper than oil. It is also seen as a key transition fuel. To be sure though, the government has also been pushing India’s oil and gas companies to increase domestic production of natural gas in a bid to keep import dependency levels under check.

Chennai Petroleum Faces Rs 73 Crore Fine - - The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has imposed a Rs 73 crore penalty on Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) for the significant oil spill incident in Ennore, Tamil Nadu, which resulted in severe environmental damage. This incident underscores growing accountability measures in India for environmental lapses, especially those impacting coastal and marine ecosystems. The spill, which affected the Ennore Creek and nearby regions, led to substantial ecological and economic repercussions, including damage to local biodiversity, disruption of marine life, and impacts on the livelihoods of nearby communities dependent on fishing and tourism.According to the NGT's assessment, CPCL’s negligence was a critical factor in the spill, leading to extensive contamination across water bodies and coastal areas, resulting in ecological stress in Chennai’s northern coastal zones. .. The tribunal highlighted the need for industries to adopt stringent environmental safeguards, particularly in high-risk sectors like oil and gas. It also emphasized the obligation of companies to prepare adequate response plans and invest in pollution mitigation technologies to prevent and handle such incidents proactively. The Rs 73 crore fine will be allocated towards restoration and compensation efforts aimed at rehabilitating the damaged ecosystems and supporting affected communities. CPCL has been directed to work closely with environmental agencies and state authorities to to execute a comprehensive remediation plan, which includes water quality restoration, mangrove and wetland recovery, and long-term ecological monitoring...

Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Important For South Asian Energy Security - “Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project is crucial for South Asian energy security and the regional attempts of diversification”, said Muhammad Soroush, a prominent Tehran-based analyst at a seminar organized by the Institute of Regional Studies on the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier, Ambassador Jauhar Saleem, President IRS, noted in his opening remarks that both Pakistan and Iran had much potential for furthering economic cooperation given their economic size and shared borders. While energy pipelines were much cheaper than shipping, and utilizing gas as a source of energy was significantly less polluting than oil, the US sanctions on Iran posed a serious challenge. Muhammad Soroush, who also heads “Saramad” think tank based in Tehran, hailed IP gas pipeline as a game changer for the region. Noting that Iran had completed the construction of pipeline on its side but due to financial constraints, Pakistan was unable to start working on its part, Soroush felt that this energy project could make Iran a crucial player in South Asian energy landscape. Naade Ali, a Washington-based researcher at Middle East Institute, opined that the US viewed energy cooperation between Pakistan and Iran as a prelude to a strategic partnership. To address this perception Pakistan needed to separate geoeconomics from geopolitics. Explaining US sanctions relief to India, Naade pointed out India’s assurances to the US that its presence in the Chahbahar port would keep Iranian activities in check. Dr Khalid Waleed, anprominent energy expert at SDPI, addressed the issue of a non-productive energy sector. He felt that the energy policy of Pakistan must prioritize the industrial growth while noting that energy shipping lanes were prone to shocks arising from the geopolitical conflicts and therefore, pipelines were a viable alternative. He also suggested that China’s coal-fired power plant projects under CPEC could be transformed into Iran-Pakistan-China gas energy project. Dr Somaye Morovati, Director South Asian Studies at Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, stressed upon the need for cooperation between the think tanks of both the countries. She argued that the researchers of both Pakistan and Iran had a very basic knowledge of each other’s governance system. She also emphasised cooperation between Pakistan and Iran in energy and economic corridors as a counterweight to US Indo Pacific Strategy which while aimed at containing China also impacted Pakistan and Iran.

PetroChina to downsize in northern China, shut its Dalian refinery in 2025, sources say PetroChina is set to shut its largest refinery in north China’s Dalian around mid-2025, marking the first major closure at a state-run oil plant, part of a long-mooted project to replace it with a smaller facility at a new site, sources said. The planned shutdown of the entire 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dalian Petrochemical plant, representing 3 per cent of the country’s total refinery output, comes as Chinese refiners struggle with overcapacity and weakened fuel demand from slowing economic growth and the electrification of its car fleet. PetroChina has already shut in 210,000 bpd, or about half of the plant’s total crude processing capacity at its Dalian Petrochemical subsidiary, said the sources, declining to be named as the matter is not public. PetroChina did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The closures are part of a long-proposed plan pushed by Dalian to relocate the refinery, which is in a densely populated area near downtown, after several deadly accidents including a major oil spill in 2010, an explosion in 2013 and a fire in 2017, the sources said. Under a framework agreement announced by Dalian authorities in November 2022, CNPC, parent of PetroChina, agreed to build a new 70-billion yuan (US$9.84 billion) refinery and chemical complex on Changxing island, about two hours’ drive from downtown Dalian.

Saudi Oil Export Revenues Hit Three-Year Low as Prices Decline -Lower crude oil prices dragged Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues to the lowest level in more than three years in August, amid underwhelming oil demand and continued supply constraints from the world’s top crude exporter.The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in August 2024 stood at $17.4 billion (65.3 billion Saudi riyals), down by 15.5% from $20.6 billion (77.3 billion riyals) in August 2023, data from the Kingdom’s General Authority for Statistics showedon Thursday.The August 2024 oil export revenues also fell by 6% from July, and hit their lowest level for any month since June 2021, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.Oil prices fell throughout August and most of September as concerns about global oil demand, especially in China, intensified. Brent briefly topped $80 per barrel in early October as the Iran-Israel conflict flared up, again, before pulling back to $75 a barrel. The market continues to expect an Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1.As prices lingered in the low $70s in August, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues suffered and so did the Kingdom’s overall merchandise trade exports, the statistics data showed.Merchandise exports fell by 9.8% in August 2024 compared to August 2023, as a result of a 15.5% slump in oil exports. Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports dropped from 75.1% in August 2023 to 70.3% in August 2024, the statistics authority said.Next year, the Saudi economy and oil export revenues are set for a rebound if OPEC+ keeps its current pledge to begin reversing the production cuts in December.Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to grow by 4.4% next year, accelerating to the highest in three years from 1.3% growth expected for 2024, as OPEC+ is set to begin unwinding its oil production cuts, a Reuters poll of economists showed earlier this week.

Crude Oil Prices Fall More Than 4% Following Limited Israeli Attack On Iran --At the market opening, oil prices have shown a notable drop of more than 4% in Asian markets following an Israeli attack targeting Iran. Despite the tensions generated by this event, the impact was less severe than anticipated, immediately affecting the crude market. We will analyze the factors behind this decline, the current situation in the Middle East, and the implications for the energy market's future.The Israeli attack, which avoided vital facilities such as nuclear and oil sites in Iran, significantly reduced the uncertainty that had reigned in the previous weeks. In response, Brent prices stabilized around $73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to the $68 per barrel range. This downward price movement suggests that investors found reasons to reduce their risk perception in the attack, given that Iran's strategic infrastructures were not directly affected.Despite Iran's threat to retaliate, the fact that the attack avoided critical facilities managed to moderate concerns about a possible significant escalation in the conflict. In recent months, oil prices have seen a considerable increase due to the growing tension between Israel and Iran, exacerbated by ongoing operations against factions like Hamas and Hezbollah. However, this episode seems to have reduced the likelihood of a larger-scale confrontation, at least in the short term.The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, as Israel has continued its military offensive in the region. Conflicts in key territories have always been a determining factor in the fluctuation of oil prices due to the strategic importance of this area in the global production and supply of crude. Political stability and security in the Middle East are essential to maintaining the steady flow of oil to international markets, and any disruption can have significant consequences for supply and demand. However, the potential for future tensions should not be underestimated. Although the immediate threat appears to have diminished, the situation in the Middle East can change rapidly, affecting energy markets unpredictably. The international community and major energy market players will continue to monitor the region's upcoming developments closely. The presence of non-state actors, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, adds an element of uncertainty, as these groups can influence regional stability. In conclusion, the recent drop in oil prices reflects a temporary reduction in uncertainty following the Israeli attack on Iran, which did not impact the country's most sensitive infrastructures. However, the situation in the Middle East remains a crucial factor in the evolution of the global energy market.

Oil Market Reacts to Israel's Retaliatory Strike - The oil market fell more than $4 on Monday after Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran on Saturday spared Iranian oil and nuclear facilities. Israel’s response appeared to have been measured as its attack struck missile manufacturing and surface to air missile defense sites across Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the region. The crude market gapped lower as it opened down $2.80 at $68.98 and posted a high of $69.00. The market quickly sold off to $67.79 and held some support at that level before further selling pushed the market to a low of $66.92 by mid-morning. The market bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled down $4.40 at $67.38 and the December Brent contract settled down $4.63 at $71.42. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 10.95 cents at $2.1286 and the RB market settling down 11.21 cents at $1.9664. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s weekend attack on military targets in Iran. Iran previously played down Israel’s air attack on Saturday, saying it caused only limited damage. On Sunday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iranian officials should determine how best to demonstrate Iran’s power to Israel, adding that the Israeli attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated”. Israel’s military said Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden called for a halt to escalation that has raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. Also, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Iran against responding to Israel’s strikes on military sites in Iran and said he stressed in a call to his Israeli counterpart the opportunities to de-escalate tensions in the region.According to separate assessments by two American researchers, commercial satellite imagery showed that Israeli airstrikes hit buildings during an attack on Saturday that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles. They said that Israel struck Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, a missile production site near Tehran. The Israeli military said three waves of Israeli jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran early on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1^st missile attack against Israel.Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan discussed in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi the importance of avoiding anything that might destabilize the region’s security following Israel’s strikes on Iran on Saturday.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 599,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 1^st, raising available refining capacity by 269,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 454,000 bpd in the week ending November 8^th.Trans Mountain said it will shut the Puget Sound Pipeline from Laurel to Anacortes, Washington for about seven days in mid-November to conduct planned maintenance. The 240,000 bpd pipeline carries Canadian crude oil to four refineries.

U.S. oil posts worst day in two years after Israel spares Iran crude facilities - U.S. crude oil sold off more than 6% on Monday, for its worst day in more than two years after Iranian energy facilities were not damaged during Israeli strikes over the weekend. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 6.13% to close at $67.38 per barrel for its biggest daily loss since July 12, 2022, when the benchmark shed 7.93%. Futures for global crude benchmark Brent slid 6.09% to settle at $71.42 per barrel. Israel on Saturday attacked Iran's military installations in three provinces in response to Tehran launching ballistic missiles against Israel on Oct. 1.Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that the attack, which the state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency said killed four soldiers, had inflicted "limited" damage. The strike steered clear of oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure locations. Iranian oil news network Shana said that Iran's oil industryoperation is "underway normally" with no disruptions.For weeks, markets had braced themselves for an Israeli retaliation following the direct Iranian offensive against the Jewish state earlier this month.. Broader Middle East tensions have continued to rise after the attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7 of last year. Oil markets' key consideration had been a direct engagement between both parties, with concerns of an attack on Iranian oil facilities rising in recent weeks. Iran accounts for up to 4% of global oil supplies, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "The recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supply," Citi analysts wrote in a note Monday, cutting the bank's Brent oil forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel over the next three months. Oil markets are also staring at a global oversupply. "With Israel deliberately, and perhaps with some American encouragement, avoiding the targeting of crude oil facilities, the oil market is back to looking at an oversupplied market," Oil production has been increasing not just in key countries such as the U.S., Canada and Brazil, but even among smaller players, such as Argentina and Senegal, he added. "Oil prices will remain under pressure for the rest of this year, it may be difficult to see Brent crude oil prices reaching $80 in the foreseeable future," The risk premium has come off a few dollars per barrel, as the more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, The spotlight will now fall on whether Iran will counter the attack in the coming weeks, which would see risk premiums rise again, Kavonic told CNBC. He noted that the overall trend of the conflict still remains one of escalation, with a high scope for another round of attacks. During a Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran's right to react to Israel's attack. "We do not seek war, but we will defend our country and the rights of our people. We will give a proportionate response to the aggression," he said. Market attention will now turn to Hamas‑Israel and Israel‑Hezbollah cease-fire talks that resumed over the weekend, according to Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Despite Israel's choice of a low‑aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran's proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," Dhar wrote in a note. Although the sell-off is a result of relief that Israel did not hit Iranian oil facilities, Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally suggested that the markets are not out of the woods just yet. "Direct Israel-Iran conflict will likely persist. Israel signaled it is able and willing to target energy and nuclear targets in future strikes," said McNally, who expects prices to remain volatile but range-bound.

Crude Oil Prices Balances After Aggressive Sale -- The oil market saw a rebound on Tuesday following a steep decline in crude oil prices on Monday, which came in the wake of Israel’s recent retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend. Although Iran’s response remains uncertain, the market currently perceives a reduced supply risk, according to a note from ING. Brent crude rose to $71.32 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.45%, reaching $67.68 per barrel, compared to $67.38 at Monday’s close. In the past month, oil prices had surged on concerns that potential Israeli attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure could escalate into a broader conflict in the Middle East, home to a large share of global oil resources. On Monday, oil prices dropped over 6% as Israel’s strikes carefully avoided targeting oil and nuclear sites in Iran. The resulting decline in geopolitical risks led to a selloff across oil markets. Despite this, tensions in the Middle East remain high. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran does not seek war but will defend its rights and respond to Israel’s actions if necessary. The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, ahead of upcoming elections, has also contributed to lower oil prices, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. government’s plan to purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) lent some support to prices. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Petroleum Reserves announced on Monday a new solicitation to buy up to 3 million barrels for SPR delivery between April and May 2025. ING analysts noted that Israel’s selective response potentially leaves room for de-escalation, which could refocus market attention on fundamentals. “Fundamentals are expected to remain bearish through 2025,” ING said. In light of the geopolitical uncertainty, many market participants have turned to options markets to hedge against potential price spikes. The Biden administration intends to procure up to 3 million barrels for the SPR to be delivered to the Bryan Mound site between April and May 2025. So far, the Department of Energy has acquired more than 55 million barrels for the SPR at an average price of $76 per barrel, compared to the $95 per barrel received during emergency sales in 2022.

Oil prices settle down on report of talks to end Lebanon war (Reuters) - Oil prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday, adding to a more than 6% drop in the previous session, on a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon. Brent crude futures settled down 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.21 a barrel. The two benchmarks had gained more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session. Both contracts fell on Monday to their lowest levels since Oct. 1 after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran at the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil infrastructure. Netanyahu will hold a meeting on Tuesday evening with Israeli ministers and the heads of the country's military and intelligence community about talks for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said on X, citing two sources. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran will "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's weekend attack. Meanwhile, declining oil demand from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, remains a drag on global oil consumption and prices. Demand will return to normal growth rates after Chinese President Xi Jinping introduces new stimulus measures to the economy, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss told Reuters. The oil market is currently balanced and demand is expected to average 104.5 million barrels per day this year, the CEO of Saudi Arabian oil giant Saudi Aramco said. "Markets tried to stage a modest recovery but continue to be under pressure from lacklustre demand from China and worries about increasing supply," U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 573,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 25, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories fell by 282,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels, they said. U.S. government data is expected on Wednesday morning. Crude oil and gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories were expected to have fallen, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll, with more than a 90% majority predicting another quarter-percentage-point move in December. Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil.

Oil prices edge down to finish at lowest in seven weeks -Oil futures declined on Tuesday, giving up earlier support a day after suffering their largest daily percentage decline in more than two years, with U.S. and global benchmark prices settling at their lowest in seven weeks. A retaliatory strike by Israel spared Iran's oil facilities and energy infrastructure over the weekend, pressuring prices of oil on Monday. Traders also digested news from the U.S. Energy Department late Monday afternoon, which said it was seeking to buy 3 million barrels of crude to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for December delivery fell 17 cents, or nearly 0.3%, to settle at $67.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after losing 6.1% on Monday. Prices settled at their lowest since Sept. 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- December Brent crude BRNZ24, the global benchmark, lost 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the lowest since Sept. 11. The more actively traded January Brent contract fell 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $70.73 a barrel.
• -- November gasoline lost 0.7% to $1.95 a gallon, while November heating oil added 0.2% to $2.13 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for November delivery settled at $2.35 per million British thermal units, up 1.6% on the contract's expiration day. The December contract, which is now the front month, finished at $2.86, down 0.1%.

Oil futures failed on Tuesday to recoup any of the more than 6% decline they logged a day earlier. News reports suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared set to meet internally with political and military advisers late Tuesday to discuss possible diplomatic approaches to address the fighting between his country and Hezbollah, "While this move helps somewhat ease market concerns for the moment, the geopolitical landscape remains tense in the Middle East after Israel's recent airstrike on Iranian military installations over the weekend," which spared key oil operations, he said. During Monday's selloff, a major chunk of long positions in WTI around the $70-a-barrel level were likely cleared out, but trend and momentum indicators remain solidly negative and futures don't appear oversold yet, leaving room for further short-term weakness as shorts target the $65-a-barrel level, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. While there is scope for near-term consolidation, the medium- to long-term dynamics remain tilted to the downside, she said. China is continuing its struggle to boost its economy and there's bad news continuing out of Germany, Europe's largest economy, where Volkswagen may close plants for the first time ever, she said. At the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries appears willing to relax production restrictions, and non-OPEC countries are increasing crude production. Analysts at Sevens Report Research, meanwhile, wrote Tuesday that the main reason oil dropped so sharply Monday was because traders' "fears that Israel may target Iranian oil or energy infrastructure weren't realized and Israel's response was clearly met to deescalate the situation." Even when oil was trading against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions, concerns about the health of the global economy, specifically China, and lower demand and the looming threat of increasing support out of OPEC+ later this year pressured prices, they said. In related news, the U.S. Energy Department said late Monday it would take bids for up to 3 million barrels of oil for delivery to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's Bryan Mound site in Texas from April through May. The department said it had bought more than 55 million barrels to date to replenish the reserve at an average price of around $76 a barrel, compared with the $95 a barrel it received for emergency sales from the reserve in 2022 in response to spiking crude prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The department said it would continue to buy oil at $79 a barrel or less to refill the reserve, "taking into account planned exchange returns and market developments." Traders also looked ahead to Wednesday's weekly update on U.S. petroleum supplies. On average, analysts expect the report from the Energy Information Administration to show a climb of 800,000 barrels in domestic commercial crude supplies for the week that ended Oct. 25, according to a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights. They also forecast inventory declines of 1.1 million barrels for gasoline and 1.4 million barrels for distillates.

U.S. crude oil edges lower after worst day in two years --U.S. crude oil edged lower on Tuesday, one day after posting the worst daily loss in two years.Energy traders have breathed a sigh of relief this week after Israel's long-anticipated retaliatory strikes on Iran last Friday spared the Islamic Republic's oil and nuclear facilities. The benchmark U.S. crude oil contract sold off more than 6%, or $4.40, to $67.38 per barrel on Monday.But oil prices are too cheap in the near term compared with fundamentals, Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday, citing demand from refilling the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as well as from the airline industry. Here are Tuesday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate December contract: $67.21 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.25%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is down about 6%.
• Brent December contract: $71.12 per barrel, down 30 cents, or 0.42%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 7%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract: $1.9518 per gallon, down 0.74%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back about 7%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.346 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.6%. Year to date, gas has lost more than 6%.

Goldman Sachs expects the price of Brent to recover to $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter even without any oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. The risks, however, are skewed to the downside in 2025, Struyven said. Demand is soft in China, U.S. production is robust and OPEC+ has plans to bring crude back to the market in December.

Big bets on oil prices soaring turn worthless as Iran risk fades Traders who piled into bullish options bets on oil prices at record pace are waking up to a harsh reality: Most of those contracts are now worthless. Israel refrained from striking Iran’s energy infrastructure in its long-awaited bombardment of the Opec nation over the weekend, sending crude prices crashing on Oct 28. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plummeted 6.1 per cent to near US$67 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop for the US benchmark in more than two years. Brent slid 6.1 per cent to settle below US$72 a barrel.Oil prices were little changed on Oct 29. Brent climbed 4 US cents to US$71.46, while WTI was down 1 US cent at US$67.37. The plunge in oil prices has helped contribute to a chunk of about 800,000 Brent December call options expiring without a profit on Oct 28 as traders’ urge to protect against a price spike evaporates.Much of the trading around the risks from the Middle East conflict in October has happened in options markets, outpacing action in futures prices. Speculation that the attacks could disrupt oil flows in a region that produces about a third of the world’s crude drove the total number of Brent options held by investors to a record high.Of the contracts expiring on Oct 28, fewer than 10 per cent had any value. That means that roughly 32 million barrels of US$90 and US$100 call options that were purchased since Iran attacked Israel earlier in October – triggering Israel’s vow for retaliation – were effectively wasted.Almost 22 million barrels of US$75 calls were worth about US$35 million on Oct 25, while nearly 53 million barrels worth of US$80 calls were worth about US$22 million at that time. Both expired worthless on Oct 28.Traders use options as a way to hedge their exposure to their physical operations such as producing or consuming oil, while others use them as a relatively cheap way to bet on the direction or volatility in prices.“The real fear of oil being taken off the world market has been nearly eliminated,” said Mr Dennis Kissler, senior vice-president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. Traders are refocusing on weak demand, with near-term oil prices taking the path of least resistance lower, he added.Oil’s slump comes ahead of a crucial few weeks for prices, with a host of influential events looming, including the US election. Opec+ plans to start gradually reviving oil production in December and the market is watching for any change to that timeline. Though the planned output increase in the near term is small, it will add supplies to a market that the International Energy Agency forecasts will not need. Last week, hedge funds slashed their long-only positions in WTI to the lowest in 14 years.

WTI Holds Gains After Gasoline Stocks Hit 2-Year-Low (As Pump-Prices Plunge?) -Oil prices are higher this morning after a two-day decline on the possibility of more attacks in the Middle East and potentially tightening US crude stockpiles.While one Israeli minister suggested that the war with Hezbollah could be over by year-end, the country’s military chief vowed to strike Iran “very hard” should the OPEC producer launch another attack.“We think the oil market has relaxed too quickly,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.“We see the risk of an escalating series of attacks over an extended period, with no immediate prospect of either military or diplomatic resolution.”Additionally, all eyes are on OPEC+’s plans to gradually revive production from December, with traders split on whether the alliance will press ahead. Reuters reported that OPEC+ nations could delay plans to revive oil production in December, citing unidentified sources. But more notable for now is what local demand and supply looks like... API

• Crude -573k
• Cushing +320k
• Gasoline -282k
• Distillates -1.463mm

DOE

• Crude -515k
• Cushing +681k
• Gasoline -2.707mm
• Distillates -977k

The official data shows a major decline in gasoline stocks and small draw in crude inventories...Total Gasoline stocks fell to their lowest since Nov 2022... The addition of 1.189mm barrels to the SPR moved total crude stocks up by 674k barrels last week... US crude production remains at record highs 13.5mm b/d... WTI is holding above $68 after the data, still well down on the week...

Reports That OPEC+ May Delay a Planned Output Increase - The oil market retraced some of its previous losses following reports that OPEC+ may delay a planned output increase and the unexpected draw in crude and gasoline stocks. The crude market posted a low of $67.28 in overnight trading and never looked back. The market was well supported by the news that OPEC could delay a planned oil production increase of 180,000 bpd in December by a month or more because of concern over low demand and increasing supply. The market was further supported in light of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stock report showing an unexpected draw in crude stocks of 515,000 barrels and a large draw in gasoline stocks of over 2.7 million barrels on the week. The crude market partially backfilled Monday’s opening gap as it posted a high of $69.14 by mid-day. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled up $1.40 at $68.61 and the December Brent contract settled up $1.43 at $72.55. The product markets ended the session sharply higher following the inventory report, with the heating oil market settling up 5.39 cents at $2.1876 and the RB market settling up 4.39 cents at $1.9957. The EIA said U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports fell. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels in the week ending October 25^th to 210.9 million barrels, their lowest since November 2021. Gasoline supplied, increased to 9.2 million bpd from 8.8 million bpd a week earlier and marked its highest level since the week ending October 4^th. Crude stocks fell by 515,000 barrels to 425.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million barrel increase.Axios reported that U.S. President Joe Biden’s senior advisers Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk will arrive in Israel on Thursday to try to close a deal that would end the war in Lebanon. According to Axios, Israeli and U.S. officials said a deal that would end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be achieved within a few weeks. The President Biden’s advisers are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. Separately, two sources stated that U.S. mediators are working on a proposal to wind down hostilities between Israel’s military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, beginning with a 60-day ceasefire. The sources said the two-month period would be used to finalize full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 to keep southern Lebanon free of arms that do not belong to the Lebanese state.Three sources said OPEC+ could delay a planned increase in oil production scheduled to take effect in December by a month or more, citing concern about soft oil demand and increasing supply. The planned 180,000 bpd hike in December, which is scheduled to come from the eight OPEC+ members who have been making the group’s most recent layer of output cuts, was already delayed from October amid falling prices. A decision to postpone the hike could come as early as next week. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1^st to decide its next policy steps.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 670,000 bpd of capacity offline in the week ending November 1^st, raising available refining capacity by 198,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 554,000 bpd in the week ending November 8^th.

Oil prices rise 1% after boost from US fuel demand - Oil prices gained 1% on Thursday after rallying the previous day on stronger than expected U.S. fuel demand and reports that producer group OPEC+ could delay a planned output increase. Traders are also awaiting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 and whether ceasefires can be brokered in the Middle East.Brent futures rose by 75 cents, or 1%, to $73.30 a barrel by 1320 GMT. WTI futures were up 91 cents, or 1.3%, at $69.52.Both contracts gained more than 2% on Wednesday.U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected to a two-year low in the week ending Oct. 25, the Energy Information Administration said, while crude inventories registered a surprise drawdown as imports slipped.“The surprise decline in U.S. gasoline stockpiles provided a buying opportunity as demand appeared stronger than anticipated,” . Further support came from a potential delay to planned OPEC+ oil production increases from December by a month or more because of concern over soft oil demand and rising supply.A decision could come as early as next week, Reuters reported. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 to decide its next policy steps.Elsewhere, manufacturing activity in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, expanded in October for the first time in six months, suggesting stimulus measures are having an effect.Brent and WTI futures had fallen by more than 6% on Monday on reduced risk of Iran’s direct involvement in the wider Middle East conflict and negotiators are now pushing for ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.With ebbing fears of war in the Middle East spreading further, market attention has turned back to expectations for deteriorating global oil balances in 2025, when supply is expected to exceed demand, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Reports That Iran is Preparing a Retaliatory Attack on Israel - The oil market saw a late day rally on reports that Iran is preparing a retaliatory attack on Israel. Early in the session, the market continued to trade higher in follow through strength seen on Wednesday and backfilled more of Monday’s opening gap. The market remained well supported by reports of OPEC+ possibly delaying a planned output increase from December by a month or more due to concerns over demand and increasing supply. It was also supported by stronger than expected U.S. fuel demand following the EIA report, which showed an unexpected draw in gasoline stocks. The crude market posted a low of $68.30 in overnight trading. However, the market bounced off that level and continued to backfill Monday’s opening gap as it rallied to $69.76 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up 65 cents at $69.26. However, the market later extended its gains to over $2 and completely backfilled its gap as it posted a high of $70.66 in the post settlement period on the Iranian news. The December Brent contract settled up 61 cents at $73.16. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.19 cents at $2.2195 and the RB market settling up 78 points at $2.0035. Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, November 5^th. It reported that the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles. Axios reported that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.Senior U.S. officials are in Israel discussing a draft agreement to end the war in Lebanon. The deal includes an agreement between the U.S. and Israel that would allow Israeli forces to strike Lebanon during a 60-day interim period in response to imminent threats. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. envoys that Israel’s ability to counter threats to its security from Lebanon and return displaced people to the north were key elements of any ceasefire deal with Lebanon.The EIA reported that U.S. oil production in August increased by 1.5% to a monthly record high of 13.4 million bpd, up from 13.2 million bpd in July. That surpassed the previous record high of 13.3 million bpd in December 2023. It reported that oil production in Texas in August increased by 1.7% on the month to record monthly high of 5.8 million bpd, while output in New Mexico increased by 2.8% on the month to record high of 2.1 million bpd. Oil output in North Dakota increased by 11,000 bpd on the month. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.907 million bpd in August from 4.193 million bpd in July. Meanwhile, total refined oil product exports in August increased to 3.546 million bpd from 3.063 million bpd in July. U.S. total oil demand in August fell by 0.3% or 57,000 bpd to 20.711 million bpd, with gasoline demand increasing by 0.25 or 14,000 bpd to 9.258 million bpd and distillate demand falling by 4.4% or 177,000 bpd to 3.875 million bpd.

Oil prices end higher as risk of Iranian strike on Israel grows WTI, Brent crude log first monthly gain since June - Oil futures finished higher on Thursday, contributing to a gain for the month, as traders weighed the growing risk of an Iranian attack on Israel that would further fuel tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.Prices have also found support after data this week revealed strength in U.S. fuel demand and news reports indicated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries might delay a plan to scale back production cuts.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 65 cents, or about 1%, to settle at $69.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the contract ending 1.6% higher for the month.
• -- December Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with the contract settling 1.9% higher for the month on its expiration day. The January contract, which is now the front month, rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to $72.81 a barrel.
• -- November gasoline added 0.4% to $2 a gallon, for a monthly rise of 2.1%, while November heating oil HOX24 climbed 1.5% to $2.22 a gallon, up 4.1% for the month. The November contracts expired at the end of the session.
• -- Natural gas for December delivery settled at $2.71 per million British thermal units, down nearly 4.9% for the session and 7.4% for the month.

For the month, geopolitical volatility drove oil-market movements, WTI and Brent oil ended higher for the month but were trading lower week to date. "You never know how much risk premium is really in the commodity until it comes out," he said, attributing the selloff to "risk-premium erosion" after Israel did not target Iranian oil facilities in its retaliatory attack.But that erosion in risk premium may be a "short-sighted view" given U.S. sanctions on the Iranian crude-oil export market and its "'ghost fleet' of crude carriers," Polyak said.There is also speculation that Iran is preparing an attack in response to Israel's recent strike on Iran, following a report from Axios, which said an attack could come within days."People may be meaningfully underappreciating the supply-disruption risks if there is continued escalation," Polyak said. While the major producers known as OPEC+ do have "spare capacity to backfill disruptions, it's not something that happens instantly," he said, estimating that it would take at least six months to offset potential supply disruptions that could pose sharp upside risk to crude oil prices. Oil prices in electronic trading Thursday afternoon headed even higher on the potential for an Iranian strike on Israel.Prices had gained on Wednesday in the wake of data that showed a rise in weekly demand for U.S. gasoline and across-the-board declines for petroleum inventories.OPEC and its allies are scheduled to begin unwinding some production curbs in December but could delay their output hike by a month or more because of concern about soft oil demand and rising supplies, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing three sources.In the immediate near term, the outlook for oil demand will be "determined by Chinese refinery run cuts and underlying economic health as well as fears of global economic health," Polyak said. "However, it seems like as we head into the winter, that China should be turning a corner given the announced stimulus [and] liquidity actions taken."In the U.S., economic data were mixed, as GDP growth came in at a lower-than-expected 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter, "implying weaker underlying economic growth," although ADP employment numbers were much stronger, with a 233,000 increase in new jobs month over month, which is "inflationary for the jobs market," Polyak said.Whoever wins the U.S. presidential election will have a "bigger impact on crude oil depending on their foreign policy, especially towards Russia, Iran and China - as well as their domestic policy on drilling on federal acreage or investment incentives," he said. Meanwhile, natural-gas futures settled lower after the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that U.S. supplies of the fuel rose by 78 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Oct. 25. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights expected an increase of 82 bcf, on average.

Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains after settlement on Thursday, rising by more than $2 per barrel on a report that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days.WTI crude oil futures jumped $2.15 or 3.13% to $70.76 after settlement at 3:22 p.m. EDT, and Brent futures for January delivery jumped by $2.10 or 2.91% to $74.26.Brent crude futures settled up 61 cents, or 0.84%, to $73.16 a barrel. Brent futures for December delivery expired on Thursday. The more actively traded January contract settled at $72.81. WTI futures settled up 65 cents, or 0.95%, at $69.26.Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added. The report said that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.“This is putting back on the table the possibility that Israel may give an attack on Iran another go,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, warning that Iranian infrastructure may not be off-limits in an attack.Iran is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day or 3% of global output.The week began with a large selloff with Brent and WTI futures falling more than 6% on Monday after Israel showed some restraint in its retaliatory attacks on Iran over the weekend.The possibility that OPEC+ would delay a planned oil output increase also supported prices on Thursday.A decision could come as early as next week, Reuters reported. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 to decide its next policy steps.In China, the world's biggest oil importer, manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months, suggesting stimulus measures are having an effect."Several international events have converged at the turn of the month that could see oil markets in for a bumpy ride in early November," said Rystad Energy's Sahdev, citing the U.S. election, a continually weak Chinese demand outlook, OPEC+ uncertainty and the war in the Middle East.

Oil Prices Jump Sharply Due To Preparations For New Strike On Israel - Belarusian News –Oil prices continued to rise on Friday, November 1, rising by more than $1 per barrel. This was reported by Reuters. Brent crude futures rose by $1.39, or 1.9%, to $74.20 per barrel. At the same time, American WTI (West Texas Intermediate) rose in price by $1.44, or 2.1%, to $70.70.Prices increased amid reports from Israeli intelligence, which believes that Iran may attack Israel in the coming days. The strike is allegedly planned to be carried out from Iraqi territory. A large number of ballistic missiles and UAVs may be used for it.At the same time, analysts note that both the Islamic Republic and Israel do not want a full-scale war to start. This means that the new blow will most likely be limited. Oil prices were also affected by expectations regarding the decision of OPEC+ countries to postpone the planned increase in production of “black gold” in December. This step was allegedly taken due to concerns about the relatively low demand for oil.

Oil prices settle up slightly on Iran worries, but prices down for week (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Friday on reports Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in coming days, but record U.S. output weighed on prices. Brent futures were up 29 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $73.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $69.49. At their session highs, both benchmarks were up over $2 a barrel. Brent posted a weekly decline of about 4% with WTI down about 3%. On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources. "Any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel's limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare," . Iran and Israel have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza. Previous Iranian air attacks on Israel on Oct. 1 and in April were mostly repelled, with only minor damage. Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports. Iran backs several groups that are currently fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. A U.S. official asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to revive stalled talks to end Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, a senior Lebanese political source and a senior diplomat said - a claim denied by both sides. Oil prices were also supported by expectations OPEC+ could delay December's planned increase to oil production by a month or more on concern over soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision could be made as early as next week. OPEC+ includes OPEC and its allies like Russia and Kazakhstan. As OPEC+ holds back on production, U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil said its global output hit an all-time high, while Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab said its U.S. production hit a record high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week that drillers pulled a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil out of the ground. EIA also said this week that output in August hit a record 13.4 million bpd, and has said that annual output was on track to hit a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024 and 13.5 million bpd in 2025. U.S. job growth almost stalled in October as labor strikes in the aerospace industry depressed manufacturing employment while hurricanes impacted the response rate for the payrolls survey, making it hard to get a clear picture of the labor market ahead of next week's presidential election. Polls show the U.S. presidential race is a toss-up between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country's next president. Economists said they expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Thursday. After hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, the Fed started to lower rates in September. Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Iran Says Israel's Attack Killed Four Iranian Soldiers, Damaged Radar Systems - The Israeli airstrikes on Iran that were launched Saturday morning killed four Iranian soldiers, members of Iran’s Air Defense Force.The Iranian Army said in a statement that the soldiers lost their lives “while confronting the projectiles of the criminal Zionist regime in order to safeguard the security of Iran and prevent harm to the Iranian nation and interests.”The Iranian military said the Israeli attack hit bases in three Iranian provinces: Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran. The New York Times and other Western media outlets reported that the Israeli strikes destroyed several air defense systems, but the Iranian military only confirmed that some radar systems were damaged and said it successfully countered the attack.“Thanks to the timely performance of the country’s air defenses, the attacks caused limited damage, and a few radar systems were damaged,” the Iranian military said, according to Al Jazeera.It’s unclear at this point if Iran will retaliate and launch another missile attack on Israel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday that Iran doesn’t seek war but warned there would be some sort of response.“We do not seek war but we will defend the rights of our nation and country,” Pezeshkian said. He added that Iran “will give an appropriate response to the aggression of the Zionist regime.”Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iranian officials will determine how to respond. “How to convey this power and resolve of the Iranian nation to the Zionist regime is for our officials to determine, and what is in the best interest of the nation and the country should be done,” he said.

Khamenei warns Israel, US of ‘crushing response’ for actions against Iran -Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned Israel and the United States of “a crushing response” for actions against Iran and its allies, according to state media. Khamenei, 85, made the remarks on Saturday while addressing students ahead of the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran by hardline students – which cemented the decades-long enmity between Tehran and Washington that persists today. “The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front,” Khamenei said in the capital, Tehran, also referring to Iran-aligned armed groups that include Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.The supreme leader did not elaborate on the timing of any attack, or the scope.He had previously struck a more cautious approach, saying officials would weigh Iran’s response and that Israel’s attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed”, after the Israeli military launched strikes last week on military bases in Iran, hitting about 20 sites over several hours in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran.Israel said the strikes were a response to attacks from “Iran and its proxies”.Khamenei on Saturday met with university students to mark Students’ Day, which commemorates a November 4, 1978, incident in which Iranian soldiers opened fire on students protesting the rule of the shah at Tehran University.The crowd greeted Khamenei with enthusiastic cheers, chanting, “The blood in our veins is a gift to our leader!”Israel has said its air strikes on Iran on October 26 were in retaliation for a major ballistic missile attack by Tehran on October 1.The Iranian attack, which involved about 200 missiles, was launched after Israeli assaults in recent months that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military.Israel has warned Iran against retaliating, while Tehran, stating it does not seek war, has promised to respond.“If Iran makes the mistake of launching another missile barrage at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran … and strike very, very hard,” said Israel’s military chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi earlier this week, adding that certain targets had been set aside “because we may be required to do this again”.Any further attacks from either side risk drawing the region – already on edge due to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon – into a wider regional conflict, just days ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday.The US military operates throughout the Middle East, with some troops now manning a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery in Israel.US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several US Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region,” Pentagon spokesman Major-General Pat Ryder said on Friday.Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people”, Ryder said in a statement.

Report: US Was Prepared To Rescue Israeli Pilots Attacking Iran If Needed - The US placed a fleet of fighter jets in the Middle East on stand-by to rescue Israeli pilots if their attack on Iran failed, Israel’s Army Radio reported on Sunday.“Israel and the US coordinated a plan to ensure the safe extraction of pilots should the operation have not succeeded,” the report said, according to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency.The report said the US didn’t participate directly in the attack but was prepared to intervene for a rescue mission. “The Americans’ advanced capabilities in the region would allow them to carry out a rescue operation,” it said.The US also supported the attack, which was carried out early Saturday, by pledging to defend Israel from any Iranian retaliation and deploying a THAAD missile system for that purpose. Israeli officials said that around 100 Israeli fighter jets, spy planes, and refueling tankers were involved in the operation. The main fighter jet was the US-made F-35.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US was responsible for the attack since it provided Israel with an “air corridor” for its jets to launch the airstrikes, which killed at least four Iranian soldiers.“The Americans gave the Zionist air force an air corridor, and the defense facilities they sent them before can be considered collaboration with the recent operation. We consider that America’s collaboration with the Zionist entity to create tension in the region is something very clear,” Araghchi said. Iranian officials said the Israeli jets launched the strikes from US-controlled Iraqi airspace. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia that’s allied with Iran, has said the US must “pay” for letting the Israeli jets use Iraqi airspace.“America must pay the price for their recklessness in using Iraqi airspace, and this will happen, with God’s help, at the right time and place,” the group said in a statement, according to Rudaw. “They will certainly dare to attack Iraq if they do not pay a heavy price for their aggression.” The US support for the Israeli attack on Iran could lead to attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria. If Iran chooses to retaliate by launching another missile attack on Israel, the 100 US troops deployed in Israel with the THAAD system could be potential targets.

Israeli Forces Leave Trail of Destruction at Kamal Adwan Hospital in Northern Gaza - On Saturday, Israeli forces withdrew from the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Israeli forces pulled out of the area after a siege on the hospital that lasted over 20 days. Israeli tanks fired on the hospital before troops stormed the facility and detained dozens of staff members and some patients.“We were surrounded from all sides. There was shooting from all directions with bombs and mortars,” said Mayssoun Alian, a nurse at Kamal Adwan.Medics said at least two children died in the Intensive Care Unit on Friday after Israeli fire hit generators and oxygen tanks at the hospital. The Israeli attack also killed the son of Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, the hospital’s director.“Everything we built, they have burned. They have burned our hearts. They killed my son,” Abu Safia said.

Gaza Ceasefire Talks Resume in Qatar But Progress Not Expected - On Monday, officials from the US, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar resumed talks on a Gaza ceasefire in Doha, but no progress is expected to be made toward a resolution ahead of the US presidential election on November 5.Sources told The New York Times that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before making any diplomatic commitments. He has also made clear he has no intention of ending the genocidal war on Gaza, repeatedly saying he would only agree to a temporary truce that would allow Israel to resume military operations.Hamas’s position has been that any deal must include a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But Netanyahu has insisted on keeping troops in Gaza, and his demand to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border sabotaged the last round of negotiations. Earlier this month, Haaretz reported that the Israeli government wasn’t interested in new ceasefire talks and was instead focused on pursuing the annexation of territory in Gaza. Since then, Israeli forces have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, prompting the US to ask for new truce talks.While Israel agreed to hold new talks, its military operations in Gaza have been relentless. Israeli forces are laying siege to northern Gaza as part of anethnic cleansing campaign following an outline known as the “general’s plan,” which calls for the forcible displacement of Palestinian civilians from the north and the extermination of anyone who stays behind.

Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Proposal That Would Keep Israeli Troops In Gaza - Hamas has rejected a ceasefire proposal that would have brought the release of a small number of Israeli captives and a 30-day cessation of hostilities, but no withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. Sources close to the Palestinian group told Middle East Eye that they had officially dismissed the proposal put forward by Qatar, Egypt and the US, despite reports in Israeli media that it was still under consideration. Hamas has been adamant that any ceasefire deal must eventually lead to the total withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. Egypt and Qatar have been acting as mediators between Israel and Hamas for months. In November, a prisoner swap deal led to the release of about 100 Israeli captives in exchange for about 240 Palestinian detainees. The first phase of the new proposed deal would have seen between 11 and 14 Israelis - including women and elderly - released in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian detainees and a 30-day ceasefire. Despite the current proposals being an apparent non-starter, officials told Israeli news outlet Maariv that American officials involved in the talks were hoping for a ceasefire deal before the US election on November 5.On October 5, the Israeli military launched a new offensive in northern Gaza. It followed the controversial “Generals' Plan”, proposed to the Israeli government, which aims to empty northern Gaza to establish a "closed military zone", an act that rights groups have said would amount to ethnic cleansing. According to the plan, anyone who stays would be labelled a Hamas operative and could be killed. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, Unrwa, estimates that about 400,000 people remain in northern Gaza, including Gaza City. Since Israel's war in Gaza began nearly 13 months ago, Israeli forces have reported killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 100,000. More than 10,000 are missing and presumed dead under the rubble. Gaza health sources say at least 17,000 children and nearly 12,000 women are among the deceased. 0 Loading...

Palestinians ‘starving to death’ in northern Gaza due to Israeli siege -- The struggle to survive continues in northern Gaza as Israel’s devastating siege and bombing of the area enters its 23rd day. An Oxfam official told Al Jazeera on Sunday Israel is using starvation as a weapon in its genocide against the Palestinians and that the United Kingdom-based NGO was unable to reach people in the north because of Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign. Mahmoud Alsaqqa, who is Oxfam’s food security and livelihood lead in Gaza, warned that some Palestinians are “starving to death” from hunger in northern Gaza and more people will die in the coming days. “There is nothing. You are talking about tens of days that they are not receiving any supplies,” he said, adding that most Palestinians in the area rely on aid supplies. Aid agencies say about 96 percent of Gaza’s population is facing high levels of food shortages. According to UNICEF, nine out of 10 children lack the nutrition they need for growth and development. At least 37 children have died of malnutrition or dehydration in a year of war. The United Nations says Israel has blocked the entry of 83 percent of food aid into the Strip since the war began. It said about 50,000 children below the age of five need urgent treatment for malnutrition by the end of the year. On Sunday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire, for the release of captives and “accountability for crimes under international law”. “The devastation and deprivation resulting from Israel’s military operations in North Gaza are making the conditions of life untenable for the Palestinian population there,” he said on X. “This conflict continues to be waged with little regard for the requirements of international humanitarian law.” The Oxfam warning came as Israeli forces bombed more neighbourhoods in northern Gaza on Sunday and humanitarian officials sounded alarm about the ongoing ground assault by Israeli forces which is forcibly displacing tens of thousands of residents out of the area. At least 35 people were killed in Beit Lahiya on Saturday after the Israeli army targeted five buildings in the north of the Strip. Another 10 people were killed in a separate attack in Beit Lahiya. Israel’s strikes on the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoon and Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza have so far killed about 800 Palestinians during the ongoing siege, the Ministry of Health in Gaza said. Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud, reporting from Deir el-Balah in central Gaza, said at least 35 people are missing and are feared to be under the rubble, or have been “vapourised” by the force of the Israeli bombs. Additionally, an Israeli air strike on a house in Jabalia killed several people and wounded others on Sunday morning, Palestinian medics said. “People were told to evacuate the Jabalia refugee camp in order to avoid being bombed, but by the time they got to areas far from Jabalia in the central and western parts of northern Gaza, they were bombed and maimed in the areas they were told to evacuate to,” said Mahmoud. “The Israeli soldiers are forcing people to get out of evacuation centres and setting them on fire,” he added. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, said on social media platform X that “the entire population of Gaza is at risk of dying in a genocide that has been announced and executed under our watch”. Albanese was responding to a statement made by UN humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya on Saturday, warning that “the entire population of north Gaza is at risk of dying” under Israel’s siege. The International Committee of the Red Cross on Saturday said the ongoing Israeli evacuation orders and restrictions on the entry of essential supplies to the north had left the civilian population in “horrific circumstances”. “Many civilians are currently unable to move, trapped by fighting, destruction or physical constraint and now lack access to even basic medical care,” it said.

Israel passes law banning UN humanitarian relief agency for Palestinians -Israel passed a law on Monday banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), according to multiple reports.Israel’s legislature, the Knesset, voted 92-10 to bar the UNRWA from operating on Israeli soil on Monday, notes the Associated Press.“It was approved by the plenary: UNRWA activities in the territory of the State of Israel will be stopped,” the Knesset said in a post on the social platform X translated from Hebrew.Another law possibly cutting off diplomatic ties between Israel and UNRWA also passed the Israeli legislature, according to the AP. In the wake of the U.N. receiving notification from Israel’s foreign ministry, both the law on UNRWA activity in Israel and on diplomatic ties have the chance of taking effect in up to 3 months, per a spokesperson for a co-sponsor backing part of UNRWA-targeting legislation.“UNRWA workers involved in terrorist activities against Israel must be held accountable. Since avoiding a humanitarian crisis is also essential, sustained humanitarian aid must remain available in Gaza now and in the future,” a post on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s account on X read Monday.“In the 90 days before this legislation takes effect – and after – we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure Israel continues to facilitate humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza in a way that does not threaten Israel’s security,” the post continued.UNRWA’s leader, Philippe Lazzarini, criticized the vote in a post on X Monday calling it “unprecedented.”“The vote by the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) against @UNRWA this evening is unprecedented and sets a dangerous precedent. It opposes the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law,” he wrote, calling it “the latest in the ongoing campaign to discredit UNRWA and delegitimize its role towards providing human-development assistance and services to #Palestine Refugees.”

Israeli Knesset Passes Bill To Ban UN Palestinian Relief Agency - The Israeli Knesset on Monday passed a bill banning the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNWRA, from operating inside Israel and another that will severely limit its ability to operate in Gaza and the West Bank. The legislation is expected to take effect in 90 days.The first bill banning UNWRA in Israel passed in a vote of 92-10. The second bill aimed at ending UNWRA’s operations in the Israeli-occupied territories passed in a vote of 97-9.The second bill prohibits Israeli authorities from having any contact with UNRWA, making it impossible for the relief agency to coordinate with the Israeli military on aid deliveries. The legislation does not outline any plan to replace UNRWA’s relief efforts in Gaza, which millions of Palestinian civilians rely on to survive.Israel has waged war against UNWRA over the past year, killing over 200 of its staff members in Gaza. Israel has claimed a significant number of UNWRA’s staff are members of Hamas but has offered no evidence for the allegations, which have been strongly rejected by the UN agency.The US took Israel’s claims at face value and cut off funding to UNWRA at the beginning of the year. Now, the US is warning Israel against implementing the bills banning UNRWA since it would starve Palestinian civilians.“If UNRWA goes away, you will see civilians — including children, including babies — not be able to get access to food and water and medicine that they need to live. We find that unacceptable,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said ahead of the Knesset vote.“We continue to urge the government of Israel to pause the implementation of this legislation. We urge them not to pass it at all, and we will consider next steps based on what happens in the days ahead,” Miller added.UNWRA was formed in 1949 to provide aid to about 750,000 Palestinians who were displaced when the state of Israel was founded in 1948, an ethnic cleansing known to the Palestinians as the “Nakba.” Today, Israeli ministers are calling for a new Nakba in Gaza to pave the way for Jewish settlements, and the Israeli military is currently imposing a starvation siege on northern Gaza to forcibly displace hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Yeah, Yeah, UNRWA Is Hamas. Everyone Israel Hates Is Hamas. -Caitlin Johnstone -Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix - The Israeli Knesset has banned UNRWA, an absolutely critical agency for getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, with the architect of the bill saying this was happening because “UNRWA equals Hamas”. In addition to everything else this genocide has been, it’s been a colossal insult to our intelligence. UNRWA is Hamas. Hospitals are Hamas. Journalists are Hamas. Civilian infrastructure is Hamas. Ambulances, schools and mosques are Hamas. The women and babies — okay maybe they’re not technically Hamas, but Hamas is definitely hiding behind them and using them as human shields. We are asked to believe self-evidently idiotic things, and if we don’t, we get called Nazi Jew-haters. We are being asked to turn ourselves into empty-headed morons to advance the information interests of a foreign state that’s allied with our government. Stupidity is being framed as a sign of patriotism. Gullibility is being framed as a sign of rejecting antisemitism. In this morally bankrupt and perverse civilization, the noblest thing you can be is a blithering imbecile.Axios and its Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid have penned yet another White House press release disguised as a news story about how “concerned” the Biden administration is about Israel’s actions in Gaza.“The Biden administration is ‘deeply concerned’ that two bills passed by the Israeli Knesset on Monday will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza and harm Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank,” Ravidwrites.Oh shit you guys the Biden administration is deeply concerned that Israel is doing something bad in Gaza! You’re in trouble now, Bibi!Like I said. Just one nonstop insult to our intelligence.

Israel massacres 93 in Northern Gaza airstrike, bans UN humanitarian origination -- In the worst single massacre since Israel launched its campaign to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza this month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bombed a five-story residential building in the town of Beit Lahia Tuesday, killing 93 people, including 25 children. That day, at least 143 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes throughout Gaza, with the vast majority—132—killed in Northern Gaza, Al Jazeera reported. With the Palestinian civil defense almost entirely out of commission due to targeting by Israeli troops, dozens of people remained buried under the rubble, where they will most likely die awaiting rescue. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” Gaza’s health ministry said in a statement. Mahmoud Basal, a spokesman for the Palestinian civil defense agency, said “There are appeals and stress calls for Civil Defense teams to save the wounded,” but civil defense forces have been either arrested by Israeli troops or “forcibly displaced due to the Israeli aggression in North Gaza.” Witness Ismail Ouaida said in a video verified by Reuters, “There are tens of martyrs (dead)—tens of displaced people who were living in this house. The house was bombed without prior warning. As you can see, martyrs are here and there, with body parts hanging on the walls.” Another survivor, a Palestinian mother, told Al Jazeera, “Both my sons with their entire families were killed. My unmarried daughter was also killed. And my other daughter with her five children. All killed. What wrong did they do? What did those innocent people do to be slaughtered like this?” The health ministry said in a statement Tuesday that the wounded will not receive medical care as nearby doctors had been forced by Israeli troops to evacuate at gunpoint. “Critical cases without intervention will succumb to their destiny and die,” the ministry said in a statement. With consummate hypocrisy, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller called the bombing a “horrifying incident with a horrifying result.” In reality, the massacre is completely in keeping with US policy. The Biden administration has provided Israel with more than 14,000 2,000-pound bombs, which have been used to systematically target populated areas with the deliberate aim of killing as many people as possible. Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the so-called “General’s Plan” to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza. Despite Netanyahu’s refusal to publicly disavow the plan, Blinken emerged from the meeting to give a blanket statement of support for Israel’s “right to defend itself.” The official death toll in the Gaza genocide now stands at over 43,000 with tens of thousands more still missing and likely buried under the rubble. An article published in The Lancet earlier this year estimated the actual death toll—including from the effects of starvation and disease—as exceeding 186,000. The massacre in Beit Lahia is part of a systematic effort by Israel to ethnically cleanse Northern Gaza through bombing and starvation and to kill everyone that remains. Over the past three weeks, at least 700 people have been killed in Northern Gaza as part of this campaign. At the start of this month, there were 400,000 people remaining in Northern Gaza. Now, that figure is estimated at around 100,000 people, with those that remain completely without food, fuel or medical supplies. Tuesday’s massacre followed the passage by Israel’s parliament of a law banning the UN relief agency UNRWA from operating inside Gaza, further dismantling any remaining humanitarian operations in the region. UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini described the move as “nothing less than collective punishment,” declaring that the move violates the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law.

Israel again bombs Gaza’s Beit Lahiya hours after killing 93 in one strike - Israel’s military has again bombed residential buildings in Gaza’s Beit Lahiya, killing at least 19 Palestinians, as civilians in the besieged northern town searched for survivors in the aftermath of an earlier Israeli raid that killed nearly 100 people. The latest Israeli bombing, late on Tuesday night, hit several homes belonging to the Al Louh family, according to the Palestinian Civil Defence in Gaza.The attack came less than a day after Israel’s military bombed a five-storey building belonging to the Abu Nasr family in Beit Lahiya, killing at least 93 people and wounding dozens more. The Ministry of Health in Gaza said at least 25 children were among the dead.Israel’s military said it was “looking into the reports of the strike”, while its main ally, the United States, called the attack “horrifying”.The United Nations Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said it was “appalled” by the bombing, describing it one of the deadliest single attacks in Gaza in nearly three months. The UN’s humanitarian agency (OCHA) said the assault on the Abu Nasr family home was among seven “mass casualty incidents” in Gaza in the past week alone.Israel’s escalating air and ground assault on Beit Lahiya comes as its siege of northern Gaza has entered its 26th day.The Israeli military said it launched the offensive to stop Hamas fighters from regrouping in the north of the territory, despite saying earlier this year that it had wiped out the Palestinian group – which governs Gaza – in the area.According to the the Palestinian Civil Defence, more than 100,000 people remain trapped in the north without food and water and dozens remain buried in the rubble of bombed homes, with rescue workers unable to reach them due to Israel’s ongoing siege and attacks.Footage from the Israeli assault on the Abu Nasr family home early on Tuesday, obtained by Al Jazeera, showed a Palestinian man covered in dust trapped under concrete and steel bars as others tried to break apart walls using pick axes to free him. Outside the building, several bodies wrapped in blankets lay on the ground. Ismail Ouaida, a witness, said the Israeli attack came without warning. “As you can see, there are martyrs all over the place,” he said, pointing to two dead bodies under the rubble. “[There are] bodies hanging over the walls.”Another Palestinian woman, in footage verified by Al Jazeera, said she lost multiple members of her family.“Both my sons with their entire families were killed. My unmarried daughter was also killed,” the woman said, weeping. “And my other daughter with her five children – all killed. What wrong did they do? What did those innocent people do to be slaughtered like this?” Rabie al-Shandagly, a 30-year-old survivor, told the AFP news agency that most of the victims were women and children.“The explosion happened at night and I first thought it was shelling, but when I went out after sunrise, I saw people pulling bodies, limbs and the wounded from under the rubble,” he said. “People are trying to save the injured, but there are no hospitals or proper medical care.”At the Kamal Adwan Hospital, the main medical facility serving the people of north Gaza, dozens of wounded people arrived seeking treatment, but the hospital’s director said there were no staff to treat the patients as Israeli forces had arrested most of its workers in a raid last week.“The Kamal Adwan Hospital and the entire vicinity is a war zone. The hospital is left with no resources; no medical supplies; no medical staff. This is because many of our specialised doctors and surgeons have been detained,” Dr Hussam Abu Safiya said.He described chaotic scenes with patients and the injured “strewn all over” the hospital floor, and called for urgent international intervention.

Israeli Troops Prevent North Gaza Residents From Returning to Their Homes as Part of Ethnic Cleansing Plan - The Israeli military is preventing residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza from returning to their homes as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign,Haaretz reported on Wednesday. The report said the military is blocking the return of approximately 50,000 residents of Jabalia due to pressure from Israeli political leadership. It said the Israeli army acknowledged it’s carrying out a partial implementation of the “general’s plan,” which calls for a complete ethnic cleansing of all areas of Gaza north of the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military. As part of the ethnic cleansing campaign, Israel has cut off virtually all aid deliveries into northern Gaza since the beginning of October, and no aid has reached Jabalia or the areas around it. The Haaretz report said senior Israeli military and Shin Bet officials acknowledged the general’s plan violates international law but are claiming the partial implementation does not, even though it has involved a starvation blockade and large-scale attacks on civilians.The report said residents of Jabalia “will only be allowed to return after Israeli security control over the area is complete, including designating parts of it demilitarized buffer zones.” However, the general’s plan does not say Palestinians can return to the north once they’re cleansed, and Israeli soldiers have been destroying buildings in Jabalia, so they have nowhere to go back to.Younis Tirawi, a Palestinian journalist who closely follows the social media activity of Israeli soldiers, shared a video on X of a bulldozer destroying a building in Jabalia that was posted by an Israeli soldier. “Making sure they have nowhere to return to,” the post says.

"Too Much Evidence" Of Genocide - Caitlin Johnstone -- South Africa’s legal team has submitted hundreds of documents containing what it calls “undeniable evidence” as part of its ongoing genocide case against the state of Israel, with the South African representative to The Hague telling Al Jazeera that “The problem we have is that we have too much evidence.” The Israeli outlet Haaretz reports that IDF soldiers are actively blocking the return of Palestinians they have driven out of northern Gaza as part of the so-called “General’s Plan” — a land grab of Palestinian territory using ethnic cleansing by violent force.Haaretz has been far more critical of Israel’s actions than western media outlets have been. It recently published an editorial titled “If It Looks Like Ethnic Cleansing, It Probably Is”. Haaretz publisher Amos Schocken is now publicly advocating international sanctions on the Israeli government for its apartheid abuses and opposition to a Palestinian state, drawing an outraged responsefrom the Netanyahu regime.Last week there was a two-day rally attended by multiple Israeli government officials called the “Preparing to Resettle Gaza Conference,” which was exactly what it sounds like: high-profile Israelis gathering to discuss the agenda to drive Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip and replace their territory with Jewish settlements.Humanitarian aid in Gaza has reportedly fallen to its lowest level since Israel’s genocidal onslaught began, with just a few hundred truckloads entering the enclave from October 1 to October 22 and nothing getting through to the north. The UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs recently warned that “The entire population of North Gaza is at risk of dying,” a warning that was issued shortly before the Israeli Knesset voted to cut off UNRWA aid throughout all the territories it controls.According to a new report from The Washington Post, the US State Department has been inundated with hundreds of reports of US-supplied weapons being used to needlessly kill and harm civilians in Gaza, but in violation of its own rules it has failed to take any action on a single one of them. According to one WaPo source, investigations of these reports have tended to stall out at the “verification” stage, which consists of asking the Israeli government for its side of the story.Israeli forces reportedly killed 109 Palestinians in a single massacre on Tuesday — including dozens of children — when Israel blew up an apartment building where hundreds of civilians were sleeping. The IDF killed five journalists in a single day last Sunday, bringing the total number of journalists murdered in Israel’s genocidal assault to at least 180. This occurred shortly after Israel published a kill list of six Al Jazeera journalists who it claims are secret Hamas fighters, although no Al Jazeera reporters were among the five killed.And this is just in Gaza. Israel has already killed some 164 healthcare workers in its ongoing assault on Lebanon, where the Netanyahu government issabotaging ceasefire negotiations by inserting ridiculous non-starter demands like Israeli planes being allowed to enter Lebanese airspace and Israeli forces being allowed to police the ceasefire deal with military operations in southern Lebanon as they see fit. Every day there’s more and more ugly news in the middle east, perpetrated by Israel and its powerful western backers who make its abuses possible. It’s getting harder and harder to stay on top of. There really is “too much evidence” to keep up with.