US oil prices fell for the eighth time in ten weeks as major shippers returned to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and fears of further disruptions to shipping subsided in the face of one of the largest multinational armadas in recent history….after rising 2.5% to $73.56 per barrel last week after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea shut down the Suez trade route and forced hundreds of ships to circumvent Africa, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery moved lower in overnight trading following the Christmas holiday weekend after Denmark’s Maersk said it planned to resume shipments through the Red Sea “as soon as operationally possible” after a U.S.-led force was deployed to protect vessels from attacks by Houthi rebels, but then surged in thin trading after the British maritime authority reported explosions in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen after sightings of unmanned aircraft and missiles in two separate incidents, and settled $2.01 higher at $75.57 a barrel…however, oil prices gave back most of those gains on Wednesday, as shippers began returning to the Red Sea despite the attacks and settled $1.46 lower at $74.11 a barrel, as prospects of a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza remained a major driver of market sentiment…selling accelerated Thursday after oil prices failed to get a sustained lift from the EIA report that U.S. crude inventories had fallen by twice what had been expected, and settled $2.34, or 3.2% lower at $71.77 a barrel, as traders put worries over the potential for shipping disruptions in the Red Sea on the back burner….oil prices drifted in thin trading on Friday and settled 12 cents lower at $71.65 a barrel, as traders focused on the supply and demand balance, as historic production outside OPEC collided with an economic slowdown in major economies, especially China….oil prices thus finished 2.6% lower on the week, 5.8% lower on the month, and down 10.73% for the year, the first annual decline since the pandemic impacted 2020..
Meanwhile, natural gas price quotes fell for the seventh time in eight weeks weeks as the front month rolled over to the lower priced February contract, while the February contract itself finished the week a bit higher…after rising 4.8% to $2.610 per mmBTU last week on colder forecasts and a bigger than expected withdrawal of gas from storage, the contract price for natural gas for January delivery opened 6.5 cents lower on Tuesday and tumbled to a 15 cent loss in thin volume trading amid a modest, brief warming trend, before recovering to settle 6.0 cents lower at $2.550 per mmBTU on bearish long term fundamentals, even as colder conditions across the bulk of the country drove cash prices higher…on the last day of trading for the January contract, futures prices surged more than 17 cents early Wednesday, but gave back those larger gains as revisions to weather forecasts sapped several days of heating demand, and the January gas contract expired 6.9 cents higher at $2.619 per mmBTU, while the more actively traded February contract settled 1.8 cents higher at $2.437 per mmBTU….with markets quoting the contract price for natural gas for February delivery, prices rallied on Thursday as cold weather outlooks pulled prices up early in the session and the EIA reported a storage withdrawal that surprised the market to the upside, and gas settled 12 cents higher at $2.557 per mmBTU…natural gas futures finished the week down 4.3 cents to $2.514 per mmBTU on Friday as extended weather forecasts suggested light heating demand deeper into winter, and were thus down 3.7% from the prior Friday’s quote, while the gas contract for February, which has been priced at $2.490 mmBTU last Friday, finished almost 1.0% higher ...
The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending December 22nd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US fell by 87 billion cubic feet to 3,490 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 348 billion cubic feet, or 11.1% above the 3,142 billion cubic feet that were in storage on December 22nd of last year, and 316 billion cubic feet, or 10.0% more than the five-year average of 3,174 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were in working storage as of the 22nd of December over the most recent five years…the 87 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas working storage for the cited week was more than the average 79 billion cubic feet withdrawal from supplies that was forecast by analysts polled by Reuters, but was less than half of the 195 billion cubic feet that were pulled from natural gas storage during the corresponding mid December week of 2022, and also much less than the average 123 billion cubic feet withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early winter week over the past 5 years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
The US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 22nd appeared to show that after a decrease in our oil imports and a modest increase in our refinery throughput, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies, for the seventh time in ten weeks, and for the 14th time in the past 24 weeks, as oil flows that the EIA could not account for shifted from the supply side to the demand side of the oil balance sheet...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 415,000 barrels per day to average 6,276,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 233,000 barrels per day the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 206,000 barrels per day to average 3,915,000 barrels per day, which combined meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,361,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending December 22nd, 209,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, natural gasoline, condensate, and unfinished oils averaged 703,000 barrels per day, while during the same period, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at a record high of 13,300,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,364,000 barrels per day during the December 22nd reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,558,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 22nd, an average of 58,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a rounded average of 874,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US... So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending December 22nd appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production was 681,000 barrels per day more than what what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a [ -681,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... Moreover, since 385,000 barrels of oil supplies per day could not be unaccounted for in last week’s data, that means there was a 1,044,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are necessarily off by that much, and therefore nonsense... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….(note there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these errors, and what they had hoped to do about it…the errors have since gotten larger; Reuters recently addressed that issue here..)
This week's rounded average of 874,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as 987,000 barrels per day were pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, the biggest draw from supplies in sixteen weeks, while 113,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fourth SPR increase in eleven weeks and the largest since September. Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,784,000 barrels per day last week, which was 8.2% more than the 6,237,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at a record high of 13,300,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,900,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 7,000 barrels per day lower at 437,000 barrels per day but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA's rounded national total as it did last week...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure is 1.5% above that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and 37.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 93.3% of their capacity while processing those 16,500,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 22nd, up from their utilization rate of 92.4% the prior week, and a near normal utilization rate for late December.. the 16,558,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 2.5% more than the 16,149,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending December 23rd of 2022, but 2.5% less than the 16,980,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending December 20th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was also at 93.3%..
With the modest increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also little changed, decreasing by 8,000 barrels per day to 10,030,000 barrels per day during the week ending December 22nd, after our refineries' gasoline output had increased by 496,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was 1.1% less than the 10,144,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year, and 2.3% less than the gasoline production of 10,269,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending December 20th, 2019....on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 243,000 barrels per day to a 29 week high of 5,116,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 118,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that increase, our distillates output was 0.6% more than the 5,085,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending December 23rd of 2022, but 5.2% less than the 5,394,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending December 20th, 2019..
With this week's downtick in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 1st time in six weeks, but for the 27th time in forty-four weeks, decreasing by 669,000 barrels to 226,054,000 barrels during the week ending December 22nd, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,710,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 414,000 barrels per day to 9,168,000 barrels per day, even as our exports of gasoline fell by 92,000 barrels per day to 1,101,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 16,000 barrels per day to 521,000 barrels per day.…Even after twenty-seven gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-four weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 1.4% above than last December 23rd's gasoline inventories of 223,008,000 barrels, and only 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
With this week's big jump in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the fifth consecutive week following eight straight decreases, increasing by 741,000 barrels to 115,765,000 barrels over the week ending December 22nd, after our distillates supplies had increased by 1,485,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose by less this week despite the production jump because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 154,000 barrels per day to 3,977,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 196,000 barrels per day to 1,259,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 13,000 barrels per day to a 37 week high of 238,000 barrels per day ...With 23 inventory decreases over the past forty- two weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 3.7% below the 120,212,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on December 23rd of 2022, and about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year...
Finally, with our our oil imports lower and considerable demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 28th time in the past year, decreasing by 7,114,000 barrels over the week, from 443,682,000 barrels on December 15th to 436,568,000 barrels on December 22nd, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,909,000 barrels over the prior week... With that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 1% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were also about 33% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the 4th weekend of December over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell in the wake of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this December 22nd were 4.2% more than the 418,952,000 barrels of oil in commercial storage on December 23rd of 2022, and 3.9% more than the 419,995,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on December 24th of 2021, but still 11.5% less than the 493,469,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on December 25th of 2020, after early pandemic precautions had left a lot of oil unused…
This Week's Rig Count
Note that this week's rig count through December 29th covers eight days, since last week's count was released on Thursday, December 21st, ahead of Christmas...however, the comparisons to year ago rig counts also are to a week following Christmas, that also covered a eight day period...since we haven't been able to get back on track to do a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including below a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of December 29th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 21st) and this week’s (December 29th) count, the third column shows last week’s December 21st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 30th of December, 2022...
it appears that the only major change this week involved the addition of three oil rigs to the Texas Permian, one each in Texas Oil District 7C, in Texas Oil District 8, and in Texas Oil District 8A, and the removal of an oil rig from New Mexico’s Permian…meanwhile, even after the removal of an oil rig from the Eagle Ford shale, the Texas rig count was still up by three with the addition of a third oil rig in Alaminos Canyon in the state’s offshore waters…offshore oil rigs now include those three, fifteen in Louisiana's waters, a horizontal rig offshore from Santa Barbara California, and a directional rig off the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska...
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DeWine signs bill letting gas companies charge Ohioans millions for new pipelines - – Natural gas companies could soon charge Ohio customers tens of millions of dollars more per year to build pipelines to potential megaproject sites under legislation signed into law by Gov. Mike DeWine on Thursday.DeWine’s signature on House Bill 201 marks an about-face from earlier this year, when he used his line-item veto authority to strip out a similar proposal from the state’s massive two-year budget plan.HB201, a Republican-sponsored bill that passed the legislature in near party-line votes, was originally written to prohibit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency or local governments in the state from restricting the sale of gasoline-powered cars in order to promote the use of electric vehicles.But under language added by lawmakers roughly 36 hours before HB201 passed both the House and Senate, gas companies can charge Ohio’s 3.7 million gas customers up to $1.50 per month for as long as five years to extend gas lines to sites that could potentially be used for megaprojects, even if no buyer has been lined up yet. Sites or projects would only be eligible for the fee if they are supported by JobsOhio (the state’s economic development non-profit), regional affiliates of JobsOhio, or the Ohio Department of Development. The non-partisan Legislative Service Commission previously estimated that a similar version of the measure would cost Ohio’s 3.7 million natural-gas customers a total of about $67 million per year, though that calculation was based on a $3 monthly cap instead of $1.50. Natural gas utilities say the new law will give them the money they need to help prepare sites that attract companies like Intel, which is building a $20 billion computer-chip manufacturing complex near Columbus. Their lobbyists told lawmakers that economic development is cutthroat between states, and large industrial buyers want “shovel ready” sites that are already hooked up to water, gas, electric and sewer. Gas companies have already been allowed under Ohio law to impose such a monthly charge for “prudently incurred” costs. HB201 expands when gas utilities can charge the fee to include helping to develop potential megaproject sites.Opponents of the bill, including a number of mostly Democratic lawmakers, the Ohio Manufacturers Association, and environmental groups, argued that it would allow utilities to make customers pay to assist private corporations and upgrade almost any part of their system in the name of economic development.“The problem with speculative, Field of Dreams, ‘If you build it, they will come,’ is if they don’t come, we and all ratepayers are left holding the bag,” said Kim Bojko, a lobbyist with the Ohio Manufacturers Association. HB 201 marks another win for Ohio’s natural-gas industry. DeWine recently signed GOP-authored measures to open up state parks to oil and gas drilling and declare natural gas as “green energy.” The state is set to put out drilling rights under thousands of acres of Salt Fork State Park to bid in early 2024. The utility companies say the new bill is necessary to prepare gas infrastructure at large scale industrial sites to entice buyers. Duke Energy lobbyist Amy Spiller said interstate competition for “megaprojects” (like Intel in Columbus or the Honda/LG Energy Solutions battery plant in Fayette County) is fierce, and buyers want land with immediately available gas, water, electric and sewer systems. It’s dubious that the new law is necessary given Ohio’s most recent state budget created a $750 millionAll Ohio Future Fund offering interest-free loans to help build out speculative economic development sites, according to Policy Matters Ohio, a progressive policy think tank.“HB 201 is yet another example of utilities’ shameless effort to secure larger returns on investments through last-minute amendments added to unrelated pieces of legislation,” wrote the organization’s Molly Bryden.
OPSB approves construction of natural gas pipeline in Butler County — The Ohio Power Siting Board on Dec. 21 approved Duke Energy Ohio’s proposal to replace 5.1 miles of natural gas pipeline located in the city of Monroe and Liberty and Lemon townships in Butler County.The Butler County Phase 2 Natural Gas Pipeline will connect the utility’s existing Dicks Creek, Yankee and Butler stations, upgrading aging infrastructure and enhancing natural gas delivery in the area.In separate business, the power siting board granted, in part, and denied, in part, applications for rehearing filed by various parties regarding the adoption of new administrative rules on all areas of OPSB jurisdiction, including the development of solar energy projects. The rules, found in Ohio Administrative Code Chapters 4906-1 through 4906-7, will be submitted to the Joint Committee on Agency Rule Review for review before taking effect. The board also granted requests to transfer ownership of the interconnection switchyards for the Madison Fields Solar facility in Madison County to American Transmission Systems, Inc. and the Nestlewood Solar facility in Brown and Clermont counties to Duke Energy Ohio.
With pipeline growth booming, the US agency in charge of safety struggles to keep up --The pipeline industry added thousands of miles of natural gas, crude oil and carbon dioxide pipelines to the national network in recent years. But the federal regulatory agency responsible for ensuring that vast system’s safety failed to grow at the same pace.Pipeline miles expand every year, and are expected to see even faster growth in the near future thanks to major federal laws. The 2021 infrastructure law provided $1 billion for grants for new natural gas distribution lines. And the climate, taxes and policy law Democrats passed along party lines and President Joe Biden signed last year included billions in tax incentives for carbon capture systems, including pipelines to underground storage sites in North Dakota, spurring a slew of new pipeline proposals in the Midwest.But neither bill added money for the pipeline safety program at the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, or PHMSA, a 600-employee agency within the U.S. Department of Transportation that is responsible for guaranteeing the safety of pipelines that cross state lines.Kenneth Clarkson, a spokesman for the Pipeline Safety Trust, an advocacy group, said the agency has long lacked the funding it needs.“PHMSA has been historically underfunded, and unfortunately that is still the case,” Clarkson wrote in an email to States Newsroom. “The agency needs more resources to keep up with the safety of our nation’s millions of miles of pipelines, especially so as more pipelines are continually being added to that total.”Pipeline Safety Trust was founded to be a watchdog on industry and regulators in 2003 with money from criminal penalties imposed following the Olympic Pipe Line Company explosion in Bellingham, Washington in 1999. That disaster killed two children and an 18-year-old and caused at least $45 million in property damage after nearly 250,000 gallons of gasoline spilled from a ruptured pipeline and caught fire. PHMSA Deputy Administrator Tristan Brown told the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee’s Railroad, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee at a March hearing that the agency has had to work “leaner” as its responsibilities have grown without a subsequent rise in resources.“PHMSA’s oversight responsibilities continue to grow, both in terms of the types of facilities we regulate, as well as the number of facilities we regulate,” Brown told the House panel. “We have had to continuously operate relatively leaner as compared to our expanded universe of regulated facilities.”Brown is the top PHMSA official because the agency has not had a Senate-confirmed administrator since the end of the Trump administration. Biden has not nominated anyone for the role.PHMSA’s budget is the smallest of DOT’s eight agencies, not including the government-owned nonprofit Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation.Its annual appropriations are less than half what the next smallest, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, is allocated. PHMSA received $319 million in regular appropriations last fiscal year, with just more than half, $161 million, allocated for pipeline safety.As of March, the agency had 207 inspection and enforcement workers on staff. By comparison, the Federal Rail Administration employs nearly 400 safety inspectors. The Federal Aviation Administration employs more than 14,000 air traffic controllers.Asked by New York Republican Marc Molinaro in March why rulemaking at the agency took so long, Brown said PHMSA was overwhelmed with new responsibilities in a fast-growing area.“Natural gas, for example: triple what it was five years ago,” Brown said. “Carbon dioxide, hydrogen: $100 billion in incentives. We have zero people, zero full-time employees focused on that. Our ability to get things done is directly proportional to the resources that Congress gives us.” Molinaro said he didn’t accept that more funding would mean a better job by the agency.
90+ Enviro, Health, Community Groups Call for Ban on CO2 Fracking In New York | Food & Water Watch ---The gas industry – by a company called “Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions” – recently announced a proposal to drill and frack in New York using carbon dioxide (CO2), including test wells as soon as this spring. Almost a decade after New York historically led the nation and protected public health and the environment by banning high-volume hydraulic fracking, this dangerous proposal to get around our state’s fracking ban using CO2 poses many of the same threats to our water, health, and climate. Today, more than 90 organizations released a letter to Governor Hochul, Senate Majority Leader Stewart-Cousins, Speaker Heastie, and DEC Commissioner Seggos calling for a ban on CO2 fracking. Signatories include groups from the Southern Tier and across the state, including Sierra Club Atlantic Chapter, Natural Resources Defense Council, Food & Water Watch, Frack Action, NYPIRG, Earthjustice, Catskill Mountainkeeper, Concerned Health Professionals of NY, Physicians for Social Responsibility-NY, Environmental Advocates NY, and many others. The letter is available here: As the letter details, the proposed plan to transport waste CO2 to New York from other states, drill and inject high-pressure CO2 to release sequestered methane, and build new gas-fired power plants is reckless and would perpetuate our reliance on fossil fuels. As countless scientific studies about drilling and fracking demonstrate, fractures are not controllable and could cause the CO2 as well as naturally occurring radioactivity in the shale to migrate, threatening to contaminate our drinking water. High pressure CO2 is itself very dangerous, and ruptured pipelines can result in asphyxiation. This was tragically illustrated in Satartia, Mississippi when a CO2 pipeline exploded, leading to mass CO2 poisoning that left 45 people hospitalized. Additionally, high pressure CO2 injection underground poses significant risk of earthquakes. The organizations noted that they are deeply concerned that the CO2 fracking proposal would violate New York’s nation-leading climate law, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). Studies show that drilling and fracking operations and infrastructure are inherently leaky, releasing methane that is disastrous for the climate along with air pollutants that endanger public health. Drilling and fracking for fossil fuels, along with pipelines, gas plants, truck trips, and other infrastructure, is contradictory to the CLCPA. Food & Water Watch Northeast Region Director Alex Beauchamp said: “Southern Tier Solutions’ carbon capture fracking scam is as absurd as it is dangerous. This pie-in-the-sky proposal would endanger public health and the environment, while taking New York backwards on its critical climate goals. Governor Hochul must come out strong against this preposterous proposal and make clear that dirty energy has no place in New York.” Sandra Steingraber, PhD, co-founder Concerned Healthy Professionals of New York, said, “Everything that’s wrong with fracking—earthquake risks, radioactive releases, air pollution, threats to groundwater and public health—doesn’t go away when CO2 is swapped for water. As health professionals, we are well aware that liquefied CO2 is corrosive, accident prone, and behaves as a terrible asphyxiant that can acidify lung tissue on contact. Governor Hochul must ensure that upstate New York will not be used as a laboratory for reckless experiments conducted by the fossil fuel industry.” Press conference recording is available here.
The feds extended the deadline for the Southgate pipeline extension. Here's a refresher. --Federal energy regulators last week approved a three-year extension for Mountain Valley Pipeline to build a planned 75-mile offshoot of its main natural gas pipeline that would run from Pittsylvania County to North Carolina. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave Mountain Valley until June 18, 2026 to complete the Southgate extension, despite complaints that the project would cause air and water pollution and is not necessary. Progress on the Southgate extension has been tied to Mountain Valley’s progress on the 303-mile mainline that will deliver natural gas from the Utica shale fields in West Virginia into Pittsylvania. When FERC approved the offshoot in 2020, it made that approval conditional on Mountain Valley receiving the necessary permits for the mainline. But in June, the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act fast-tracked completion on the mainline by including a provision that mandated approval of the environmental permits tied up in lawsuits and prevented any further litigation against it. In issuing the recent extension, the commission said Mountain Valley hadn’t acted in bad faith by concentrating on the mainline in lieu of the extension. Before construction on the extension can start, FERC needs to issue a notice to proceed after confirming the project has received all state and federal permits it needs. Two state permits, an air permit from Virginia and a water permit from North Carolina, are still outstanding. Virginia previously rejected an air permit sought by the company to build the Lambert compressor station in Pittsylvania County, which would repressurise gas from the mainline in order to send it the rest of the way into Rockingham and Alamance counties in North Carolina. The compressor station was proposed to go near Chatham. The State Air Pollution Control Board rejected the air permit in December 2021 on the grounds that it didn’t meet the “fair treatment” requirements of the state’s 2020 Environmental Justice Act. The board noted that 32% of the population surrounding the site were Black, while Black people made up 20% of the state’s population.The rejection led to 2022 legislation that transferred permit approval authority from the air board to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.North Carolina has denied Southgate a necessary water permit twice, citing “unnecessary and avoidable impacts to surface waters and riparian buffers.” Shawn Day, a spokesperson for the project, said, “At the appropriate time, Mountain Valley intends to pursue all necessary permits and authorizations to complete construction of the MVP Southgate project.” Mountain Valley needs to consult with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to see if Southgate will have any impacts on the long-eared and tri-colored bats, which have been listed as endangered since the initial approval. The company will also need to reopen eminent domain proceedings in North Carolina if it continues to pursue private lands for the project. The company withdrew from those proceedings in 2022, and the one-year deadline to resume the cases has passed.
Update: Cheniere says it is not reducing Sabine Pass LNG expansion plans - LNG Prime -US LNG exporting giant Cheniere now plans to build two instead of three liquefaction trains as part of the Sabine Pass expansion project in Louisiana. Cheniere said the company is not reducing its growth ambition at Sabine Pass, and with this move it would achieve similar production with an optimized unit/cost footprint.Sabine Pass currently has a capacity of about 30 mtpa following the launch of the sixth train in February last year, while Cheniere’s three-train Corpus Christi plant in Texas can produce about 15 mtpa of LNG and is undergoing expansion.Earlier this year, Cheniere initiated the pre-filing review process with the US FERC for the Sabine Pass Stage 5 expansion project.The original plans included the construction of three large-scale liquefaction trains, each with a production capacity of about 6.5 mtpa of LNG, a boil-off-gas (BOG) reliquefaction unit with a production capacity of 0.75 mtpa of LNG, and also two 220,000-cbm LNG storage tanks.However, Cheniere now aims to construct two LNG trains with a nameplate capacity of about 7 mtpa each using ConocoPhillips liquefaction technology, according to a draft resource report filed with the FERC in November.“In short, we are not reducing our overall growth ambition at Sabine Pass. We continue to progress the commercialization of the expansion – an up to approximately 20 mtpa increase in capacity at our Sabine Pass facility, inclusive of estimated debottlenecking opportunities – and we look forward to advancing on our financial, regulatory and construction milestones to have it producing LNG by the end of this decade,” the spokesman said. The proposed Sabine Pass expansion facilities will be interconnected and operated with the existing terminal, while Cheniere is also proposing an increase in the authorized maximum loading rate of LNG carriers and simultaneous loading capabilities for the three existing jetties. Sabine Pass is proposing to increase loading to about 14,000 cbm per hour of LNG from the two new storage tanks to the existing marine berths. To deliver about 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas to the expansion project, Cheniere’s unit Sabine Crossing proposes to build a new, 48-inch diameter natural gas pipeline of about 5.3 miles in length extending from Jefferson County, Texas, and into the LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The Sabine Pass LNG terminal currently has approval to produce and export 1661.94 Bcf/y of LNG (33.01 mtpa). Cheniere said in the report the expansion project would produce an additional 843.15 Bcf/y of LNG, equivalent to about of 16.83 mtpa of LNG for export or 2,050 MMscfd. Also, the marine berths would be able to accommodate the total project exports of 49.84 mtpa, it said.
Work Continues on 20 Bcf/d of Pipeline Capacity for U.S. LNG Export Projects - Eight pipeline projects continue to advance in Texas and Louisiana to feed five LNG export projects that are currently under construction along the Gulf Coast. The pipelines have all been approved and some are under construction. They would add more than 20 Bcf/d of capacity to feed liquefaction trains coming online through the end of the decade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Natural Gas Pipeline Project Tracker. About 13.5 Bcf/d of capacity is currently being built. Some projects are under federal jurisdiction or state jurisdiction, EIA said. All five LNG export projects have one or more pipelines under construction.
US weekly LNG exports down to 22 cargoes - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending December 20 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 22 LNG carriers departed the US plants between December 14 and December 20, six vessels less compared to the week before. Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 82 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals were essentially unchanged week over week, averaging 14.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 1 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 2 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.3 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the period under review. The Freeport LNG terminal shipped four cargoes, and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped three cargoes during the week under review. Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped two cargoes, and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass shipped one cargo. The Elba Island LNG facility did not ship cargoes during the week under review. One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between December 13 and December 20, the agency said. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 16 cents from $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.49/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. Moreover, the price of the January 2024 NYMEX contract increased 11.2 cents, from $2.335/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.447/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging January 2024 through December 2024 futures contracts increased slightly to $2.564/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures decreased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased $2.47 to a weekly average of $13.30/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 84 cents to a weekly average of $10.89/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending December 21, 2022), the prices were $34.420MBtu in East Asia and $34.99/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said.
February Natural Gas Ends Up in First Day as Lead on Cold Weather, Bullish Storage February Nymex natural gas futures closed the first day as the front-month contract up 12.0 cents, adding to early gains after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage withdrawal that surprised the market to the upside.The contract settled Thursday’s regular trading session at $2.557/MMBtu, above the intraday low of $2.412 and below the session’s $2.576 high.Cold weather outlooks pulled futures up early in the session and supported mixed activity in the spot gas market for natural gas traded for Friday, Dec. 29 through Sunday, Dec. 31, flow to accommodate business closures for the New Year’s holiday.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. was down 7.0 cents at $2.170 with the weekend inclusion.The February futures contract was further boosted at 10:30 a.m. ET after the EIA reported an 87 Bcf withdrawal from Lower 48 natural gas stocks for the week of Dec. 22 that was above most industry estimates. NGI modeled a 76 Bcf withdrawal ahead of the print. Reuters’ poll produced a median withdrawal prediction of 79 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey ranged from withdrawals of 72 Bcf to 82 Bcf, averaging 78 Bcf. “Bullish!” said one participant on the online energy platform Enelyst. However, the pull was well below the hefty year-earlier draw of 195 Bcf — when winter storms led to freeze-offs amid huge demand spikes — and the five-year average 123 Bcf withdrawal for the week. The total working gas supply stood at 3,490 Bcf, a still healthy 348 Bcf above the year-ago level and 316 Bcf above the five-year average.This was the second consecutive 87-Bcf storage withdrawal reported by the EIA. Gelber & Associates analysts noted that while temperatures were slightly milder and heating demand was lower week-over-week, power burn and LNG exports were higher, and Lower 48 production declined modestly. NatGasWeather said surpluses could increase to more than 375 Bcf, with the next several reports expected to print “decently lighter than normal.” The firm said weather was warmer than normal over most of the country this past week, the Christmas through New Year’s Holiday tends to bring lighter demand, and warmer weather is forecast for much of the next 10 days. Early estimates from Reuters for the week ending Dec. 29 ranged from withdrawals of 76 Bcf to 12 Bcf, with an average decrease of 56 Bcf. That compares with a withdrawal of 219 Bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average decrease of 97 Bcf. At midday, the American weather model trended warmer than the overnight outlook, especially for what was expected to be the coldest shot of the coming series for Jan. 5-7, NatGasWeather said. The meteorologists said this period is now not nearly as cold as it had shown a couple of days ago. But what might have held up prices is overnight data “teasing a frosty set up” over the country from Jan. 11-13, said the firm, while warning “that’s quite far out in time” and could trend warmer, “just as Jan. 1-8 did the past few days.” Natural gas futures could find additional support should colder winter weather outlooks hold up.
Williams Acquires Hartree’s Gulf Coast Storage Assets For $2B - Midstream giant Williams said Wednesday that it has reached a deal to acquire a portfolio of Gulf Coast natural gas storage assets from an affiliate of Hartree Partners LP for $1.95 billion, capping a busy year for storage acquisitions and expansions. The deal includes six natural gas storage facilities with a total capacity of 115 Bcf in Louisiana and Mississippi. Four are salt domes with a combined capacity of 92 Bcf, and two are depleted reservoirs with combined capacity of 23 Bcf. Williams also is to acquire 230 miles of gas pipeline with 30 pipeline interconnects to markets including LNG terminals and Williams’ Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco).
Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG expansion project almost 50 percent complete - US LNG exporting giant Cheniere and compatriot Bechtel are moving forward with the construction work on the expansion phase at the Corpus Christi LNG export plant in Texas.Cheniere’s Corpus Christi liquefaction plant now consists of three operational trains with each having a capacity of about 5 mtpa.In June last year, Cheniere took a final investment decision on the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project worth about $8 billion and Bechtel officially started construction on the project in October.The project includes building seven midscale trains, each with an expected liquefaction capacity of about 1.49 mtpa.Cheniere’s unit Corpus Christi Liquefaction said in the November construction report filed with the US FERC that overall project completion for the Stage 3 project is 48.8 percent. Stage 3 engineering and procurement are 80 percent and 69 percent complete, respectively, while subcontract and direct hire construction work are 63.1 percent and 9.8 percent complete, respectively, it said.
Shell Shoring Up More U.S. Deepwater Natural Gas, Oil by Sanctioning Great White, Sparta - The deepwater Gulf of Mexico is getting renewed attention by Shell plc, which recently sanctioned two big projects in a row. In the Great White unit, a prolific oil- and natural gas-rich area of the deepwater, is set to expand with three wells, which would be processed through the Perdido platform in Mississippi Canyon, according to Shell Offshore Inc. The wells could result in another 22,000 boe/d via the Perdido spar, which already produces up to 125,000 boe/d at peak rates. Shell continues “to find ways to build” its position in deepwater, Executive Vice President Rich Howe said. “By expanding our Perdido development, we continue to unlock the greatest value from this exceptional resource. “This investment underscores Shell’s long-term commitment to the U.S....
Endangered Rice's Whale faces threat after 1.1 million gallon oil spill - After over a million gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico in November, one environmental advocate is raising concern for one of the most endangered whales in the world. In 2021, scientists discovered the Rice’s Whale, the only resident baleen whale in the Gulf of Mexico. “To discover a brand new species is amazing at this time in history. But then also, to find out that there’s only less than 100, some estimates say less than 50, and they only live in the Northeastern Gulf waters – these type of whales don’t usually like warm, tropical waters – but they do, so it was a new and exciting discovery.” So When Mia McCormick, advocate with Environment Florida, heard about the November oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, she was concerned.“We saw over a million gallons spill into the gulf off of the coast of Louisiana, and it did overlap with some of the habitat that the Rice’s Whale live in.”The effects on the whale after this oil spill are currently unknown, but McCormick is calling for protections.“So ultimately, we need to stop oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico, but in the meantime, we should start by restricting leasing activity and require reduced vessel speeds in the Rice’s Whale habitat specifically, so we can lower the risk of deadly strikes.”In October, NOAA fisheries denied a vessel speed limit and other protectionsfor the endangered whale. Despite this, McCormick encourages those concerned to write their legislators.
Kodiak, CSI Merger to Create Natural Gas Compression Giant, with Permian, Eagle Ford Prowess - The blitz of tie-ups in the U.S. oil and gas industry is continuing, with Kodiak Gas Services Inc. offering to buy CSI Compressco LP in a deal that would become the largest contract compression fleet in the industry with an estimated 4.3 million hp. The all-equity acquisition, valued at $854 million including debt, would deepen Kodiak’s position in key operating areas, particularly the Eagle Ford Shale and in the Permian Basin, where it would have about 2.8 million hp-plus within the most active basin in the country. “The increased scale provided by the industry’s largest contract compression fleet will allow Kodiak to continue to provide the highest level of service in the industry to our customers, many of which are themselves undergoing consolidation,”
Vital Energy Acquires Additional Working Interests in Recent High-Value Acquisitions in the Permian Basin - -- Vital Energy, Inc. today announced the acquisition of additional working interests in producing assets associated with the recent asset acquisition from Henry Energy and Henry Resources for total consideration of $55 million1.The purchase will increase Vital Energy’s working interest in 45 wells by an average of 24%, increasing the Company’s estimated 2024 production by approximately 1,400 BOE/d (57% oil). The transaction is expected to increase Vital Energy’s 2024 Free Cash Flow2 by approximately $20 million3, furthering Vital Energy’s deleveraging goals.The transaction is associated with the exercise of tag-along rights by owners of certain assets in the Henry acquisition that enable Vital Energy to purchase and finance the assets on the same terms as the Henry purchase and sale agreement, in which the Company’s shares were issued at $54.96. Vital Energy funded the transaction through the issuance of 627,000 shares of its common stock and 595,000 shares of its 2.0% cumulative mandatorily convertible preferred securities.
Lower 48 Oil, Natural Gas Permitting Tumbles in November, Led by 18% Dip in Permian -Oil and natural gas permitting in the Lower 48 fell by double-digits in November from a month earlier, driven by losses in the Permian Basin, according to Evercore ISI. The analyst firm, which each month tracks state and federal permitting, said a total of 2,565 permits were issued in November, down by 11% month/month (m/m). “The monthly decrease was mostly driven by losses in the Permian,” off by 18% m/m, or 209 fewer permits than in October. There also were permitting declines reported in the Eagle Ford Shale, down by 35 permits, or 11% lower. In the Powder River Basin, there were 89 fewer permits issued, off by 22% m/m. The Mississippian Lime reported a 29% decline m/m, down 64 permits.
Navajo families have concerns about cleanup efforts after an oil spill near Shiprock | KSUT Public Radio - A pipeline operated by a subsidiary of Navajo Nation Oil and Gas breached on December 11 near a school bus stop outside town, causing crude oil to flow across land used to graze cattle and into gullies that lead to the San Juan River. Some Navajo families who live next to the spill are asking for transparency from tribal officials about the severity of the accident and their plans for remediation. Beverly Maxwell is a member of the Navajo Nation and a resident whose land was impacted. “If you don't have clean water if you don't have clean land, you don't have clean air – you know, what's more important than that?” said Maxwell. After heavy rains later in the week, Maxwell says she saw oil flowing into a canal that eventually leads to nearby farms.
North Dakota Natural Gas Production Dips, Takeaway Capacity Concerns Forecast for 2024 - North Dakota natural gas production fell slightly in October because of an early wintry blast, but benign weather in the last two months of 2023 could lead to “great numbers” for oil and gas output, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) director, Lynn Helms. Production averaged 3.4 Bcf/d in October, down 1% versus September, DMR data show. Producers captured and marketed 3.21 Bcf/d, or 94% of total production, down 1% from September’s capture rate. The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City decreased to $1.99/Mcf as of Dec. 13, down from $2.90 around the same time in November. Farther downstream on the same system, NGI’s Northern Border Ventura price averaged $2.070/MMBtu on Wednesday (Dec. 27).
California Strikes Remaining Subsidies for New Natural Gas-Fueled Infrastructure - California regulators pulled the remaining subsidies offered for constructing buildings that rely on natural gas or propane in a move to support decarbonization and incentivize electrification. After eliminating natural gas line extension subsidies for all mixed-fuel buildings in 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) earlier in December struck electric line extension subsidies for new mixed-fuel buildings beginning next July. The act marked the removal of the final subsidy. Subsidies are to continue for all-electric new construction. “Ending indirect incentives for natural gas system expansion helps us align state climate goals with our subsidies and financial incentives,” said Commissioner Darcie Houck.
Little River oil spill in Windsor under investigation | Windsor Star -- City workers remained on the scene of a likely oil spill in Little River on Friday but had yet to determine the cause of the leak or whether it had stopped. The city learned of the substance in Little River on Dec. 26, said city engineer Mark Winterton, Windsor’s commissioner of infrastructure services. The leak contaminated the river from Tecumseh Road East as far as the marina at Riverside Drive, a distance of several kilometres. “Our goal is zero oil but we feel like we reacted immediately once we became aware of it and employed the booms,” said Winterton. “We are prepared for these kind of things because they do happen on occasion. “We have several booms out there across the river in different locations and then we’ve employed a Vactor truck. It will scoop off oil on the top.” A vacuum truck operated by Hurricane Hydrovac was on the scene draining the substance from the river Friday morning. The city contacted the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, which played an active role in the assessment of the spill, said Winterton. City emergency services also responded but once it was determined there was no danger to life or property they disengaged, he said. EMS also determined the material was organic in nature. The Little River watershed serves as a drainage area for a large swath of the city’s stormwater system. The river itself drains into the Detroit River. The cause of the leak and how much material has actually spilled into the river has yet to be determined, said Winterton. The spill is “fairly extensive” but contained, he said. “But a little goes a long way on an oil spill.”
BC Regulators Deny FortisBC Proposal to Add Natural Gas Pipeline as Capacity Shortfalls Loom - FortisBC Energy Inc. was sent back to the drawing board to supply a growing customer base after Canadian regulators rejected a proposal for a C$327 million ($285 million) natural gas pipeline. The British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) in late December denied a certificate of public convenience and necessity for FortisBC’s proposed Okanagan Capacity Upgrade (OCU) project. The project would have included a new 406-millimeter diameter (16-inch diameter) natural gas pipeline spanning 18.6 miles from Ellis Creek to Chute Lake. FortisBC also would have added a pressure control station, a block valve station and decommissioned an existing pipeline. In its application filed in late 2020, FortisBC said OCU would be necessary to serve a forecast peak demand increase on its...
Experts Stress Natural Gas Infrastructure, Storage, Upstream Needs in Mexico - In 10 months, on Oct. 1, 2024, Mexico’s new president will take office, and the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador will end. Members of the Mexican energy industry told NGI’s Mexico GPI they are hopeful for a change in energy policies that have at times stalled and frustrated the sector during the past five years. The government of López Obrador has had a complicated relationship with private and foreign investors. They have limited access to necessary electricity and development permits, and halted exploration and production of shale gas. Industry experts such as Rosanety Barrios, who in December was announced as a member of the energy team of presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), told NGI’s Mexico GPI that short-term...
AES wraps up stake sale in two LNG terminals - US energy company AES has completed the previously announced sale of minority stakes in its LNG import terminals in the Dominican Republic and Panama, while the company also finalized an additional stake sale in the two facilities.AES announced in September it has agreed to sell minority stakes in its LNG import terminals for $190 million.These sell-downs of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and Panama expand its existing strategic partnership with Grupo Linda and add a new partnership with Grupo Popular’s subsidiary, AFI Popular, through one of its closed end funds.The agreements included the sale of 10 percent of AES’ business in the Dominican Republic to Grupo Linda and AFI Popular and the sale of 20 percent of AES Colon in Panama, also to Grupo Linda.However, AES said in a statement issued last week that it has sold additional stakes in the assets.AES will continue operating its businesses in the Dominican Republic and Panama, with an ownership interest of 65 percent in each business.The firm closed minority sell-downs of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and its AES Colon business in Panama for proceeds of $338 million.This includes the transactions announced in September for proceeds of $179 million after purchase price adjustments at closing, as well as sell-downs of additional stakes in the businesses through the expansion of existing partnerships with Grupo Estrella and AFI Popular, through one of its closed-end funds, for $159 million, it said.In total, AES sold 20 percent of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and 35 percent of AES Colon.
Gas prices up $2.06, diesel up $0.95 - Motorists will pay more for fuel when they go to the pumps on Thursday. E-10 87 is to move up by $2.06 to sell for $168.45 per litre and a litre of E-10 90 will also go up by $2.06 to sell for $174.56. Automotive diesel oil will move up by $0.95 per litre to sell for $170.99. Ultra low sulphur diesel will sell for $179.68 per litre following an increase of $2.25. The price of Kerosene will go up by $3.06 with that fuel to sell for $179.84. Headlines Delivered to Your Inbox Sign up for The Gleaner’s morning and evening newsletters. In the meantime, propane cooking gas will go up by $1.00 to sell for $72.44, while butane will move up by $1.10 to sell for $81.70 per litre. Retailers will add their mark-ups to the announced prices.
NG Energy's Colombian Gas Reserves Up Four Times Year-on-Year -- NG Energy International Corp. saw more than a fourfold increase in its natural gas reserves in Colombia this year following the drilling of a well and an agreement to develop pipeline infrastructure. Reserves, including proven and probable, jumped to 217.9 billion cubic feet, the Toronto company said in a statement Wednesday, from 48.7 billion cubic feet last year. Proven reserves increased to 68.3 billion from 26.8 billion a year ago. The announcement comes as Colombia looks to reverse declining gas reserves, which at an estimated 7.2 years are at their lowest since at least 2007. President Gustavo Petro has stopped awarding new oil and gas exploration licenses as part of a pledge to wean the nation off of its dependency on fossil fuels. “An increase in reserves is positive news for Colombia at a time when there’s a lot of pressure on the industry for new discoveries,” Chief Financial Officer Jorge Fonseca said in a phone interview. State oil producer Ecopetrol SA said it is analyzing importing gas from Venezuela starting at the end of next year. The increase in reserves was the result of drilling NG Energy’s Aruchara-3 well, which is part of the Maria Conchita field in northern La Guajira province, Fonseca said. The company also finalized plans to build a pipeline from its Sinu-9 block in the Lower Magdalena basin.
NFE in Brazilian LNG-to-power move - US LNG player New Fortress Energy said it had signed a definitive deal with Ceiba Energy to acquire a 1.6 GW capacity reserve contract, positioning NFE as a “leading” LNG-to-power company in Brazil.NFE said in a statement it would acquire the Portocem power purchase agreement in exchange for newly issued NFE redeemable series A convertible preferred stock and the assumption of certain liabilities from a subsidiary of Ceiba Energy.Ceiba Energy, backed by US-based investment firm Denham Capital, won a bid in December 2021 for a 15-year PPA to build, own, and operate a new 1.6 GW power plant in Brazil.The company’s Portocem LNG-to-power project, which includes an FSRU, won 30 percent of the total demand offered by Brazil’s power regulator Aneel and the Ministry of Energy. “Following customary closing conditions including regulatory approval for the transfer of the PPA in Brazil, the PPA will contribute firm capacity payments of $280 million per annum through its 15-year contract life,” NFE said in the statement.
Petroecuador Reaches New High for Oil Output - National oil company EP Petroecuador said it has reached a new production peak of 413,241 barrels of oil equivalent. The company reported adding a total of 404,290 barrels of oil per day (bopd), enabling it to reach its record production high, it said in a recent news release. Petroecuador attributed the increase to efficient strategies implemented by its technical team, advanced technology enhancing extraction processes, and the training of its personnel. A key factor to boosting the total output was the rise in production of the company’s Sacha field Block 60, located in the Orellana province, which reached 77,802 bopd, Petroecuador noted. For the year, around 1.8 million barrels of crude oil were extracted from 16 drilled wells. To further improve the production of the asset, the company is planning a drilling campaign in 2024 incorporating three more towers. Meanwhile, Petroecuador expects to increase its natural gas production by around 4 million cubic feet per day (MMcfpd) with a method called RIEGLESS. The company will carry out reconditioning and maintenance work on wells without towers in the natural gas fields AMSB-10 and AMSA 016S1 of Campo Amistad-Block 6, located 43.5 miles (70 kilometers) offshore in the Gulf of Guayaquil. A multidisciplinary team made up of company technicians and private companies will carry out well stimulation work to increase natural gas production volumes, continuing until 2025. Currently, the Amistad Field has production of 20.5 MMcfpd. The anticipated increase in natural gas output will allow Petroecuador to meet the existing demand for the resource in the country, the company said in a separate news release. The Amistad platform is the only offshore operation that Petroecuador operates. It has 17 drilled wells and three producing wells. Amistad’s accumulated production from January to November 2023 reached 7.05 billion cubic feet or 1.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Europe Eyes Venezuelan Oil in Diversification Drive - The recent easing of sanctions between the United States and Venezuela, marked by pivotal legal settlements and new commercial arrangements, represents a significant turning point for the global energy industry. These developments, particularly the resolution of disputes involving Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), signal the reinvigoration of Venezuela's oil and gas sector and hold substantial promise for energy-hungry Europe. The settlement between PDVSA and Refineria di Kòrsou (RdK), navigated by Dentons Europe LLP - led by David Syed, head of their Sovereign Advisory practice - brings to an end a longstanding impasse that had stifled the operational potential of RdK's refinery and oil terminal in Curaçao since 2020. Under this settlement, PDVSA will resume the supply of crude oil to RdK and initiate discussions on long-term gas supply, enabling RdK to recommence its operations. This development is a win for PDVSA and RdK and a strategic move that reopens crucial pathways in the Caribbean energy landscape. Furthermore, the collaboration between PDVSA and Repsol Exploración, S.A. to bolster investment in their joint venture, Petroquiriquire, S.A., heralds a new era of increased production in the Venezuelan oil and gas industry. A similar deal with ENI of Italy is imminently expected. The intention to significantly boost overall production underlines a commitment to revitalize the national economy of Venezuela, a country with one of the world's largest oil reserves but whose potential has been largely untapped due to political and economic challenges. For Europe, these developments couldn't be timelier. The continent benefits greatly, grappling with energy supply concerns exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and a push for diversification away from reliance on Russian energy sources. Venezuela's re-entry into the global oil and gas market as a significant player provides Europe with an alternative and potentially stable energy source. This could be instrumental in mitigating the current energy crisis and contributing to Europe's energy security. Venezuela's strategic geographic location and colossal oil reserves make it an ideal candidate for European nations striving to diversify their energy sources. Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves, exceeding even those of Saudi Arabia. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela's proven oil reserves are estimated to be around 303.8 billion barrels, representing a significant portion of the global oil supply. Before the sanctions and economic turmoil, Venezuela was producing about 2.4 million barrels per day. Though current production levels are significantly lower, there is potential for rapid growth given the country's abundant reserves. Oil output has already increased significantly over the last year under the leadership of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and Oil Minister Pedro Rafael Tellechea. As of 2021, the European Union's crude oil imports from Russia accounted for roughly 27% of its total oil imports, according to Eurostat. Replacing even a fraction of this with Venezuelan oil could significantly enhance Europe's energy security.
Oil spill blackens part of Venezuela's western coast -- An oil spill is sloshing tarry ooze onto beaches in the state of Carabobo along Venezuela's western coastline, several environmental groups said on Wednesday. The spill was first detected on Tuesday, Yohan Flores, a regional director of the Azul Ambientalistas NGO, told AFP. "A large part of the beaches of Puerto Cabello are affected," he said, referring to the country's largest port 210 kilometers (130 miles) west of the capital Caracas. State oil giant PDVSA has not addressed the spill even as NGOs such as the Caribe Sur Foundation say it originated at a waste lagoon near the El Palito refinery, one of the most important in Venezuela. A brief report from the National System for Risk Management noted a "spill of hydrocarbons from the waste lagoon" without offering more details. "A large part of the beaches of Puerto Cabello (in Carabobo state) are affected," said Flores, adding that marine fauna may also be affected. Teams from PDVSA, volunteers and fishermen all were seen working on cleanup. The National Organization for Rescue and Maritime Safety of Venezuela's Aquatic Spaces (ONSA) called for "environmental contingency" action. The last oil spill recorded in the area was in July 2020, when waste from the refinery also flowed into the sea. That accident contaminated the Morrocoy National Park, a tourist area with a score of islets with white sand beaches. Fishermen near Puerto Cabello said that they will not be able to fish for the next two months.
Venezuela oil giant says 80 percent of oil spill cleaned up -- Venezuela's state oil company said Thursday that an oil spill at a refinery on the country's western coastline was no longer "active" and that more than 80 percent of the affected area had been cleaned up. Wednesday's spill at the El Palito facility in the northwestern state of Carabobo occurred when heavy rainfall caused fluids to overflow from lagoons at the site, PDVSA said on social media platform X. "It is important to clarify that it is not heavy crude oil, but a discharge of hydrocarbons, wastewater or effluents that were directed to the coastal marine environment," the company said. "At this time there is no active source of spillage, there is no rupture of pipeline or system," it went on, adding that the "situation is being controlled by highly trained personnel under current safety protocols." The spill sloshed tarry ooze onto beaches, affecting several seaside resorts and causing environmental groups and fishermen to sound the alarm. Work was under way Wednesday to clean up the spill. The last oil spill recorded in the area was in July 2020, when waste from the same refinery flowed into the sea. That accident contaminated Morrocoy National Park, a tourist area with a score of islets with white sand beaches. Venezuela, which has one of the world's largest oil reserves, saw its production fall from 3 million barrels per day more than a decade ago to 850,000 barrels per day now, with production expected to surpass 1 million barrels later next year.
UK Deploys Warship To Guyana In Show Of Support Against Venezuela Territorial Claim While the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana may have come and gone, some (former) global superpowers are not taking any chances, and according to the FT, the UK will deploy a naval patrol ship off the coast of the tiny but rich Latin American nation in a show of support for the former British colony as it faces a territorial claim from its more powerful if insolvent communist neighbor.The deployment follows moves by Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s socialist president, to claim the vast, mineral-rich Essequibo region, which borders his country but has been part of Guyana - a member of the British Commonwealth and the only English-speaking nation in South America - for more than a century.Britain’s decision to dispatch HMS Trent later this month is a significant show of support for the government in Guyana’s capital Georgetown.The decision comes just days after the UK's new foreign secretary, David Cameron, fresh from career exile after his catastrophic handling of Brexit, said the UK would “continue to work with partners in the region to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld and prevent escalation”.Meanwhile, UK foreign office minister David Rutley, visited Guyana last week to meet President Irfaan Ali and stress the UK government’s “unequivocal backing” for Guyana’s territorial integrity after the Venezuelan claim.Yván Gil, Venezuela’s foreign minister, responded angrily on social media platform X to that visit, saying: “The former invading and enslaving empire, which illegally occupied the territory of [Essequibo] and acted in an skilful and sneaky manner against the interests of Venezuela, insists on intervening in a territorial controversy that they themselves generated.As reported earlier this month, Maduro held a referendum at the start of December, in which Caracas claimed that more than 95% supported proposals including that Essequibo, which makes up two-thirds of Guyana, should become a Venezuelan state. Caracas subsequently authorised Venezuelan state-run companies to grant licences for exploration and exploitation in Essequibo and ordered new official maps including the territory, although the presidents of both countries agreed in a December 15 meeting not to use force in the dispute.
Venezuela Launches 5,000+ Troop Exercise In Response To UK Warship's Approach Just on the heels of the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana, fears which finally subsided over a week ago upon a mutual pact pledging that both would avoid direct conflict, the UK sent a warship to patrol off Venezuela's coast. Britain previously said it would dispatch the HMS Trent near Guyana by December's end as a significant show of support for the government in Guyana’s capital Georgetown, on concerns Nicolás Maduro would make moves to claim the vast, mineral-rich Essequibo region, which borders his country but has been part of Guyana - a member of the British Commonwealth and the only English-speaking nation in South America - for more than a century.A December 14 report in The Guardian suggested tensions were cooling fast: "The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela promised in a tense meeting that neither side would use threats or force against the other, but failed to reach agreement on how to address a bitter dispute over a vast border region rich with oil and minerals that has concerned many in the region," the publication said at the time. But on Thursday's there's been a new shocking development reversing this hoped-for state of 'cooler heads prevailing' and which raises the potential for the UK and Venezuela to directly clash in Caribbean waters.AFP reports breaking statements from Maduro's office as follows:Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday ordered more than 5,600 military personnel to participate in a "defensive" exercise, after Britain said it was sending a Royal Navy warship to waters off neighboring Guyana.Maduro said he was launching "a joint action of a defensive nature in response to the provocation and threat of the United Kingdom against peace and the sovereignty of our country."Prior to the current standoff the HMS Trent had reportedly monitored the Caribbean in search of drug smugglers as a military offshore patrol vessel. It is armed with heavy guns and typically carries a unit of Royal Marines and a combat helicopter.
Former BP Chief’s ‘Serious Misconduct’ Results in Steep Compensation Losses - The former chief of BP plc, Bernard Looney, is set to forfeit more than $40 million in compensation after he “knowingly misled” the board about his previous relationships with colleagues. Looney, who resigned abruptly in September, gave the board “inaccurate and incomplete assurances” as part of an investigation that began in 2022, according to the integrated major. The board noted that Looney was “dismissed without notice” effective in mid-December, tied to the finding of “serious misconduct.” “Following careful consideration, the board has concluded that, in providing inaccurate and incomplete assurances in July 2022, Mr. Looney knowingly misled the board,” BP stated Wednesday (Dec. 13). Looney acknowledged when he resigned three months ago that he had not been “fully transparent” in his disclosures about his work relationships.
Shell's QCLNG plant ships 1000th cargo - The Shell-operated Queensland Curtis LNG export plant in Australia has shipped its 1000th cargo since it started operations in May 2015, according to shareholder CNOOC.CNOOC’s gas and power unit said in a statement that the two-train 8.5 mtpa liquefaction plant on Curtis Island in Queensland has exported the milestone cargo on December 18 onboard the 174,000-cbm LNG carrier, Kool Firn.This 2020-built vessel, owned by CoolCo and chartered by a unit of LNG giant Shell, took about 70,000 tons of LNG.The project has produced a total of 66.21 million tons of LNG since May 2015, according to CNOOC Gas & Power.Shell’s QGC business also confirmed the departure of the milestone cargo from the QCLNG plant saying that the company was the first to deliver natural gas from wells drilled into coal seams from the Surat Basin to Curtis Island, and it also the first of the Queensland projects to reach 1,000 cargoes. Other two LNG plants on Curtis Island include the Santos-operated GLNG plant and the ConocoPhillips-led APLNG terminal.
Spot LNG shipping rates dip below $100,000 per day - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet fell sharply this week, while European and Asian prices continued to decrease as well. Last week, the Spark30S Atlantic decreased to $133,750 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific decreased to $103,500 per day. “LNG freight rates fell sharply week, with a 28 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 26 percent week-on-week decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $37,250 to $96,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $13,500 to $103,500 per day. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week. The NWE DES LNG for January delivery was assessed last week at $10.489/MMBtu and at a $0.740/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for January delivery is assessed at $10.206/MMBtu and at a $0.810/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday. He said this is a $0.283/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.07/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s January prices.
Eni Introduces Natural Gas to Congo’s First LNG Export Project - Eni SpA said Thursday that it has introduced natural gas to the Republic of Congo’s first LNG project. Eni said it introduced first gas to the Tango floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility offshore of the central African country just a year after a final investment decision was reached on Congo LNG. The project utilizes natural gas from the offshore Marine XII block. Once the commissioning phase is complete, Tango FLNG should produce its first cargo in 1Q2024, the Italian supermajor said. Tango has an annual liquefaction capacity of 1 billion cubic meters (Bcm)
Oman raises natural gas supplies to 29bln cubic metres - The Sultanate of Oman has raised its natural gas supplies to industrial estates and projects to over 29 billion cubic metres from the beginning of the year to the end of November. Industrial estates accounted for 240 million cubic metres of domestic natural gas consumption, an increase of 6.2 per cent compared to the same period last year. The share of industrial projects from natural gas stood at 28.8 billion cubic metres, an increase of 1.3 per cent compared to last year. The use of natural gas in oil fields increased to 12.3 billion cubic metres, an increase of 11.4 per cent, and in power generation stations to 7.9 billion cubic metres, an increase of 9.6 per cent over last year. Production and import of natural gas in the Sultanate of Oman saw an increase of 4.9 per cent to 49.4 billion cubic metres at the end of last November compared to 47.1 billion cubic metres at the end of the same month in 2022. This includes 10.1 billion cubic metres of associated gas production and 39.2 billion cubic metres from non-associated gas production and import. The increase in natural gas supplies to the industrial sector coincides with the sector’s expansion requirements and the execution of new projects in the sector particularly in promising industrial areas such as the Duqm Special Economic Zone which is witnessing a growth in the number of existing and planned projects. Duqm also hosts one of the most important petrochemical industry projects namely the OQ 8 refinery which recently began its trial operation by exporting shipments of high-quality diesel and is expected that the project will be officially opened soon.
U.S. Sanctions Reportedly Prompt Exodus from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 Project – LNG Recap - Foreign stakeholders have reportedly withdrawn from PAO Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions imposed against the facility by the United States, jeopardizing Russia’s efforts to significantly boost its liquefied natural gas trade. Kommersant cited unnamed sources who told the Russian newspaper that China National Petroleum Corp., China National Offshore Oil Corp.,TotalEnergies SE and a consortium of Japanese companies have suspended each of their 10% stakes in the project by declaring force majeure due to the sanctions implemented last month. As a result, Novatek may ultimately have to finance the 19.8 million metric tons/year project on its own and sell cargoes into the spot market, the newspaper reported. None of the companies have commented on the report.
Rise in Russian LNG Exports, Supply to China Can’t Stop Steep Decline in Gazprom Earnings - As the year draws to a close, earnings from Russia’s most valuable company, Gazprom PJSC, are forecast to fall nearly 40% from 2022 levels to around $24.3 billion. State-owned Gazprom, also the country’s top natural gas producer, recently disclosed its earnings have continued to fall as it navigates the fallout of Western sanctions, lower global gas prices and the halt of most of its pipeline exports to Europe after last year’s invasion of Ukraine. During the first half of the year, Gazprom’s net income fell to $3.1 billion, the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic surged in 2020. The exact decline in the company’s earnings is still unclear, as Gazprom hasn’t disclosed a full earnings report since last February. The company’s earnings were inflated by record... .
Gazprom Says Connected Nearly 900,000 Users to Network Gas in 2023 - Gazprom PJSC has connected 842,000 new users to Russia’s natural gas infrastructure during 2023. The company said in a media release that in 2023 Russian residents have signed some 1.081 million contracts with national gas infrastructure expansion operator Gazprom Gazifikatsiya, regional gas infrastructure expansion operators and independent gas distribution entities (GDEs). Gazprom said it has brought pipeline gas to the boundaries of private households and boiler houses of medical facilities and educational entities at no cost to the consumers. Out of the 1.081 new contracts signed, more than 842,000 (or 77.9 percent) have already been performed: gas pipelines have been laid to the boundaries of households. Three quarters of these works were performed by the GDEs of the Gazprom Group, the company said. The constituent entities of the Russian Federation provide persons entitled to benefits with subsidies for the construction of gas pipelines within the boundaries of land plots, as well as for the installation of in-house gas equipment. According to the instruction of President Vladimir Putin, this kind of financial aid is provided in the amount of at least RUB 100,000 ($1,087) per household, Gazprom said. Gazprom said that Gazifikatsiya and regional authorities are continuing a broad awareness campaign to inform the population about the procedure and advantages of additional gas grid expansion.
Russian oil output expected to hold steady in 2024 - Oil output in Russia, the third largest producer in the world after the United States and Saudi Arabia, is expected to be steady or even to increase next year as Moscow has largely overcome Western sanctions, analysts said. The government has said that Russian oil and gas condensate production is set to decline to 527 million metric tons (10.54 million barrels per day) this year from 535 million tons in 2022, as Moscow has restrained supply in line with its agreement with the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. According to the poll, Russia may produce between 515 million tons and 530-538 million tons of oil next year, while exports will be broadly unchanged, at 250 million tons. "We anticipate no major changes in Russian output versus current levels. Increases in global demand will likely be offset by rises in output from the U.S.A., Venezuela, Iran, and others, keeping OPEC+ quotas largely stable," Ronald Smith, an analyst with Moscow-based BCS World of Investments brokerage, said. The West imposed wide-ranging sanctions against Russia, including an embargo on seaborne Russian oil imports and a price cap of $60 per barrel, after Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine in February 2022. Russia also defied predictions of severe declines in its oil supply, including from the Paris-based watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA), which in March 2022 said it was possible markets would lose three million bpd of Russian crude. Russia has managed to redirect all of its crude oil exports affected by Western sanctions to what it terms "friendly" countries. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, almost all of Russia's oil exports this year have been shipped to China and India. Under its OPEC+ agreement, Russia is curbing its crude output by 500,000 bpd until the end of 2024 and, separately, it also has pledged to reduce exports of oil and fuel by the same amount in the first quarter. "For 2024, Russian liquids production is forecast to remain steady with the previous year, averaging 10.6 million barrels per day," the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its latest monthly review. "In addition to project ramp-ups from several oil fields, there will be start-ups by Rosneft, Russneft , Lukoil, Gazprom, Neftisa and TenderResurs. However, overall additional liquids production is expected to be offset by declines at mature fields."
Refineries opt out Russian crude imports as furnace oil prices slide globally - Amid a global dip in furnace oil prices, local refineries in Pakistan are hesitating in importing Russian crude oil. The News reported, quoting industry sources, that the decreased demand for furnace oil, a by-product of Russian oil, has rendered the current pricing of Russian crude impractical for Pakistan’s hydro-skimming refineries. One source highlighted the need for a discounted price on Russian crude oil, given the reduced feasibility in the current market where furnace oil prices have plummeted from $80 per barrel to $60 per barrel since early December. Hydro skimming refineries in Pakistan primarily produce 55 percent of furnace oil from Russian crude oil, focusing on high-speed diesel and petrol. Facing a surplus of furnace oil, local refineries are actively seeking opportunities to sell in the global market as domestic demand for the fuel has dwindled. Industry officials expressed concerns about the impracticality of importing Russian crude oil when there is already a substantial quantity of furnace oil available for export at lower prices. Notably, the economic suitability of Russian crude oil for countries like India, with deep conversion refineries emphasizing diesel and petrol over fuel oil, was mentioned by another source. In an effort to manage their surplus, refineries have exported significant quantities of furnace oil in December. Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) exported 35,000 tonnes, Cnergyico exported over 70,000 tonnes, and Pak Arab Refinery (PARCO) exported 100,000 tonnes of fuel oil in the current month, according to industry sources. December sales data indicates a 34 percent decrease in fuel oil sales compared to the same month last year and a 33 percent drop from November this year. The deal between Pakistan and Russia for the supply of Russian crude oil was signed earlier this year, with the first order placed in April. PRL, which imported its initial 100,000-tonne cargo of Russian crude oil in June, has no plans for further imports by March next year, according to a top official. Cnergyico Refinery imported two shipments totaling 110,000 tonnes of Russian crude oil in October and November. The current market dynamics and furnace oil surplus contribute to the cautious approach of local refineries towards further Russian crude oil imports.
Indian Refiners Seek to Stockpile MidEast Crude amid Red Sea Attacks - Refiners in India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, are seeking to boost supplies from the Middle East and other nearby nations as recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea raise the risk of longer shipping time and higher costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Shippers turned cautious about entering the Red Sea in recent weeks due to multiple attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. That prompted massive diversions, with many ships taking a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, adding as much as three weeks to the voyage. Vessels carrying cargoes from the producers in the Mediterranean and North Sea are among those affected, as they travel the Suez Canal and Red Sea en route to Asia. Shipping companies are asking Indian firms to bear the risk premiums for deliveries via the usual route, said the people, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. The refiners are not willing to bear the additional liability and are scouting for alternative suppliers, they said. Indian refiners are concerned their margins may come under pressure due to a sharp rise in insurance and freight costs. However, they also need to keep pace with domestic demand, which is rising because of the South Asian nation’s rapid economic growth. State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. has already arranged crude oil from other sources, a company official said, but didn’t provide more details. The government is advising merchants to take longer routes and diversify energy imports, with greater emphasis on buying from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, officials from India’s trade ministry said on condition of anonymity. Talks are also underway with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to strengthen maritime security cooperation in the Red Sea region, they said. A spokesperson from the ministry didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The flow of Russian oil from the Black Sea region may be affected and rerouted, leading to a higher premium for crude from the Middle East, said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. India’s refined fuel product exports to the EU too could be impacted, she said. Although, Indian refiners are concerned about supplies, there hasn’t been any impact on refinery run rates so far, the people said. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the situation in the Middle East, including the Red Sea attacks, with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday.
Oil spill in Ennore brings fishing to a standstill -- The Kosasthalaiyar river flows north of Chennai city, drains into the Bay of Bengal, and is the most important source of livelihood for 38-year-old fisherman M Santhosh Kumar. It now bears the scars of a large-scale oil spill mixed with floodwater in the aftermath of cyclone Michaung that battered Chennai, in early December. Kumar and more than 2,000 fishermen from the nine fishing villages of Ennore (a neighbourhood in north Chennai), have not ventured into the Kosasthalaiyar river, the Ennore Creek, and the Bay of Bengal since the beginning of December, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert ahead of Cyclone Michaung. Cyclone Michaung ravaged Chennai with unprecedented rainfall of 45 cm in 36 hours on December 3 and December 4, leaving the city inundated. While the cyclone prevented fishermen from accessing the waters for one week, the oil spill that happened after the cyclone passed, has rendered the waters unfit for fishing, bringing the lives of fishermen in Ennore to a complete standstill. On December 4, crude oil from the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL), a public sector refining company, reportedly leaked into the Kosasthalaiyar river, Ennore Creek, and the sea. This was exacerbated by floods because it resulted in a quick spread of the oil, confirms an expert (on condition of anonymity) from the Indian Institute of Technology. Media reports revealed that the oil spill spans 20 square kilometres, extending from the Kasimedu harbour to the Kosasthalaiyar river, adjoining Santhosh Kumar’s hamlet. When the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board’s (TNPCB) technical team ventured to find out the source of the oil spill they reported that, “there is some stagnant storm water along with oil, adjoining to the storm outlet near South Gate of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, which is slowly contributing to oil traces.” The Additional Chief Secretary of the Environment, Climate Change, and Forest Department, Supriya Sahu, issued a statement which mentions that the clean-up activity at Ennore was completed on December 20, 2023. The statement claimed that 105.82 kiloliters of oily water and 393.5 tonnes of oily sludge had been removed. However, when this correspondent visited the affected regions of the Kosasthalaiyar river and Ennore Creek, an oil slick still blanketed the waters, the boats, and the pristine mangroves—a situation that is a source of concern for the fishermen. Oil has painted the boats black, ruined several fishing nets, and killed the fish, directly affecting the livelihoods of fishermen. In the past week, Kumar has spent all his evenings on a rickety boat tethered along the shores of the Kosasthalaiyar river. “I go home after my children sleep and leave early in the morning before they wake up,” shares Kumar. “Every Christmas, I buy new clothes for my kids and ten other kids in the orphanage nearby. I did not know how to tell my children I could not afford them new clothes this year. So, I avoided meeting them,” he adds. Having endured the dual impact of Cyclone Michaung and an oil spill, fishing families now confront an uncertain future. For fishermen to now venture into the sea, their boats need repairs, the marine ecosystem must be restored, and, most importantly, the water should be clear of oil. As the timeline for any of these developments remains unclear, the women are growing anxious. “We are begging our neighbours for some onion and tamarind,” says 33-year-old N Ratna of Ennore Kuppam. She claims that her savings of Rs. 5,000 are now exhausted and she has pledged her gold chain to keep the cooking pot boiling at her home.
Qatar to supply crude oil to Shell in five-year deal -Qatar has agreed to supply Shell in Singapore with up to 18 million barrels of oil a year for five years in what the Gulf state's energy company said was its first ever five-year crude sales deal. QatarEnergy said it had agreed with Shell International Eastern Trading Company to supply up to 18 million barrels each year of Qatar Land and Qatar Marine crude oils starting in January. “We are delighted to sign our first ever five-year crude sales agreement. This agreement further strengthens QatarEnergy’s relationship with Shell," QatarEnergy Chief Executive Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said in a statement.
Saudi minister expects $600bln in petrochemical investments by 2030 — Saudi Investment Minister Khaled Al Falih expected investments of up to $600 billion in the Kingdom’s petrochemical sector by 2030. Speaking at the Saudi-Japanese Investment Forum hosted in Riyadh on Monday, the minister announced the signing of 14 agreements and memorandums of understanding between Saudi and Japanese entities during the forum. These agreements span various sectors, including water, telecommunications, information technology, energy, financial services, and healthcare. Al Falih noted that 45 major Japanese companies are participating in the forum, which will showcase promising opportunities for these companies to engage in large-scale projects in the Kingdom, such as NEOM and the Red Sea project. He highlighted that the Japanese delegation includes 14 startups with unique technologies capable of transforming entire industries. “The Kingdom welcomes these startups into its market, supported by reliable funding sources, as part of Saudi efforts to foster entrepreneurship and technology and harness the benefits of the digital revolution.” The minister mentioned the increasing demand for borrowing in the Kingdom, exceeding $1.5 trillion. Japanese banks and asset managers continue to contribute to this.
Iran and Iraq share common position regarding OPEC, Iranian minister says (Reuters) - Iranian oil minister Javad Owji on Wednesday thanked Iraqi officials for cutting oil output, saying the two countries had a common position regarding both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ grouping which includes allies such as Russia. The minister's comments came as he signed a number of preliminary agreements with his Iraqi counterpart in Tehran, state media reported. "Iran and Iraq have a common position regarding OPEC and OPEC+. We thank the Iraqi officials for the voluntary cuts they implemented to improve (oil) prices. We have had negotiations about future issues related to OPEC and OPEC+," Owji said without giving any further details. Iraq has said it will begin voluntarily cutting its oil output by 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the start of January to the end of March as part of a wider voluntary agreement by some of the OPEC+ group. The agreements signed in Tehran on Wednesday include memoranda of understanding (MoU) to develop shared oil and gas fields, particularly Sindbad in Iraq and Khorramshahr in Iran, Iran's Borna news agency said without giving further details. Owji said he was hopeful that the development of shared fields would begin soon. "We reached acceptable agreements on the renovation of Iraqi refineries by Iranian experts and a committee to follow up on this issue has been created," Owji added.
Oil prices remain mixed amid geopolitical risks - Crude oil prices remained mixed on Tuesday amid fears about Red Sea supply disruptions. As of 1125 hours GMT, Brent, the international benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, gained $0.08 (+0.10 percent) to reach $79.15 a barrel. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main oil benchmark for North America, went down by $0.14 (-0.19 percent) to $73.42 a barrel. Brent ended the last week higher by 3.29 percent while WTI registered an uptick of 2.98 percent.Similarly, the price of Russian Sokol increased by $0.14 (+0.19 percent) to $73.36. Arab Light prices witnessed an increase of $0.15 (+0.18 percent) to reach $82.03 a barrel. On the other hand, the price for Opec Basket went down to $80.84 a barrel with a decrease of $0.40 (-0.49 percent). The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of Saharan Blend, Girassol, Djeno, Zafiro, Rabi Light, Iran Heavy, Basra Light, Kuwait Export, Es Sider, Bonny Light, Arab Light, Murban and Merey. Earlier, oil futures posted the biggest weekly gain since October last week due to fears about the Red Sea supply disruptions. More maritime carriers are avoiding the Red Sea due to attacks on vessels carried out by the Houthi militant group, which says it is responding to Israel’s war in Gaza. The attacks have caused global trade disruptions through the Suez Canal, which handles about 12 percent of worldwide trade. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd and Hong Kong’s OOCL have joined a growing list of major shipping companies that have said they would avoid the Red Sea. Hapag-Lloyd will reroute 25 ships by the end of the year from the key waterway as freight rates and shipping stocks have increased because of the disruption.
Oil drops almost 2% as investors watch Red Sea developments (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday, eating into the previous day's gains as investors monitored developments in the Red Sea, where shippers are returning despite further attacks on Tuesday. Brent crude futures settled down $1.42, or 1.8%, at $79.65 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.46, or 1.9%, to $74.11. Danish shipping company Maersk said it has scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and Red Sea in the coming weeks after calling a temporary halt to those routes this month after attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia. France's CMA CGM also said it was resuming passage through the Red Sea after deployment of a multinational task force to the region. "I think we have to wait and see whether the increased naval patrols and rerouting of ships lead to a decline in attacks," . Both the Brent and WTI benchmarks settled more than 2% higher in the previous session as the latest attacks on ships in the Red Sea prompted fears of shipping disruption. The prospect of a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza remained a major driver of market sentiment. Israeli forces pummelled central Gaza by land, sea and air on Wednesday, a day after Israel's Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told reporters the war would go on "for many months". Elsewhere, oil loadings at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk were suspended because of a storm. However, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near the port was open, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week by 1.84 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Oil output in Russia, the third largest producer in the world after the United States and Saudi Arabia, is expected to be steady or even to increase next year as Moscow has largely overcome Western sanctions, analysts said.
WTI Extends 'Death Cross' Losses After API Reports Another Unexpected Crude Build -Oil prices pumped and dumped today after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebel militia's attacks on tankers sparked supply concerns overnight which were then completely forgotten about as US Treasury yields puked lower during the day (and Maesrk reportedly scheduling several dozen ships to move through the Suez Canal, suggesting that the world’s leading shipping firm is not afraid of the Houthi attacks - or at least is hopeful about US protection).Meanwhile, demand concerns also loom over the market, particularly in China where strong demand over the first nine months of the year has started to moderate, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth U.S., in a note."The market expects that approximately 800,000 of the 1.2-1.6 million barrels-per-day growth next year will come from China, with jet fuel leading the charge," she wrote. "The lack of confidence in China's economy in 2024 remains the market's biggest concern followed by fear that U.S. production will continue to beat estimates as it did in 2023."The cautious sentiment, however, creates a low bar for positive surprises in 2024, Babin said, in contrast to a 2023 where expectations of massive inventory draws were too hard to live up to.Oil ended lower ahead of the API inventory data.
- Crude +1.837mm (-2.4mm exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline (+100k exp)
- Distillates (+700k exp)
After the prior week's surprise crude build, expectations were for a 2.4mm crude draw last week. But once again, crude stocks unexpectedly built by 1.837mm barrels...WTI was hovering just below $74 ahead of the API print after a wild day, and extended losses on the unexpected build...
WTI Holds 'Death Cross' Losses After Unexpected & Large Crude Draw --Oil prices have extended their losses from yesterday with WTI back below $74 following last night's unexpected crude inventory build reported by API. Technicals are also weighing on crude prices after WTI triggered a 'death cross'... Crude had risen about 8% since its December low as Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea forced tankers and other ships to divert on longer voyages, boosting costs. Despite a US-led task force to protect the key waterway, nearly half of the container-ship fleet that regularly passes through the Red Sea is currently avoiding the route. Although “the attacks in the Red Sea are likely to keep markets on edge,” signs of inventory builds in the US “may exert downward pressure on crude oil prices,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. DOE:
- Crude -7.11mm (-2.4mm exp) - biggest draw since August 2023
- Cushing +1.51mm
- Gasoline -669k (+100k exp)
- Distillates +741k (+700k exp)
Completely flipping the API script, the official data showed a large crude inventory draw of 7.1mm barrels (the biggest since August). Cushing stocks rose for the 10th week in a row, Distillate inventories up for 5 straight weeks while Gasoline stocks drew-down for the first time in six weeks...
Oil Market Retraces Gains Amid Easing Red Sea Shipping Concerns The oil market fell on Thursday as concerns over shipping disruptions along the Red Sea route eased. According to a shipping schedule, Denmark's Maersk will route almost all container vessels sailing between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now on while diverting only a handful around Africa. The crude market posted a high of $74.40 overnight before it continued to retrace its previous gains. It traded to $72.69 in the morning ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. Following the release of the EIA’s petroleum status report, which showed a larger than expected draw of over 7 million barrels on the week, the crude market initially moved higher towards the $74.00 level. However, the market later erased those gains and sold off, retracing more than 50% of its move from a low of $67.98 to a high of $76.18 as it posted a low of $71.72 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled down $2.34 at $71.77 and the February Brent contract settled down $1.26 at $78.39. The product markets also ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 6.76 cents at $2.5563 and the RB market settling down 6.98 cents at $2.0852. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected by 7.1 million barrels in the week ending December 22nd. It reported that U.S. exports of total petroleum products in the latest week increased to 7.2 million bpd, the highest level on record. The EIA also reported that U.S. Midwest refinery utilization increased to 101.7%, the highest on record. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased to 52.4 million barrels, the highest level since April 2022.On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s state news agency said, citing the full royal speech addressed to the kingdom's advisory Shura Council, that Saudi Arabia has worked to support the stability and balance of global oil markets by playing a pivotal role in establishing and maintaining the agreement of the OPEC+ alliance.Denmark's Maersk will sail almost all container vessels travelling between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now on while diverting only a handful around Africa. A shipping schedule showed that while Maersk had diverted 26 of its own ships around the Cape of Good Hope in the last 10 days or so, only five more were scheduled to start the same journey. By contrast, more than 50 Maersk vessels are set to go via Suez in coming weeks. However, Maersk said alliance partner Mediterranean Shipping Company continued to divert all MSC vessels via the Cape of Good Hope for the time being, regardless of date or point of departure and the direction they were sailing in. On Wednesday, Hapag Lloyd said it still considered the situation too dangerous to pass through the Suez Canal, adding that it planned to review the situation on Friday. North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources reported that the state’s oil production averaged 1.24 million bpd in October, down 3.7% on the month.
Oil prices settle down 3% as Red Sea shipping disruptions ease (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 3% on Thursday as more shipping companies said they were ready to transit the Red Sea route, easing concerns about supply disruptions as Middle Eastern tensions stay elevated. The more active Brent crude futures for March delivery settled down $2.39, or 3%, at $77.15. Brent futures for February delivery , which expired after settlement, fell 1.3% to $78.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by $2.34, or 3.2%, to $71.77 a barrel. On Wednesday, oil prices dropped nearly 2% as major shipping firms began returning to the Red Sea. Denmark's Maersk will route almost all container vessels sailing between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now, and divert only a handful around Africa, a Reuters breakdown of the group's schedule showed on Thursday. France's CMA CGM is also increasing the number of vessels travelling through the Suez Canal, it said earlier in the week. "The perception is that the Red Sea route is reopening and will bring supply to market weeks faster," Major shipping companies stopped using Red Sea routes and the Suez Canal earlier this month after Yemen's Houthi militant group began targeting vessels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which limited price declines for awhile. Later, prices fell further, likely as traders focused on a bulk of the draw coming from the U.S. Gulf Coast region, where refiners are scrambling to clear inventories to avoid high taxes on storage at the end of the year. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 22, EIA data showed, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 2.7 million barrels. Crude oil stocks at the U.S. Gulf Coast fell by 11.03 million barrels, the biggest decline since Aug, the data showed. Investors expect interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S. in 2024, which could boost oil demand.
U.S. crude oil sheds more than 10% in first annual decline since 2020 - U.S. crude oil closed out the year more than 10% lower as bearish sentiment has taken over due to worries that the market is oversupplied from record production outside OPEC. The West Texas Intermediate contract for February shed 12 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at $71.65 a barrel on Friday. The Brent contract for March lost 11 cents, or 0.14%, to settle at $77.04. U.S. crude and the global benchmark booked the first annual decline since 2020 despite ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East due to the devastating war in Gaza. WTI is down 10.73% for the year, and Brent has lost 10.32%. Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday on worries that militant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would disrupt global trade and crude supplies. While fears of escalation in the Middle East have triggered brief spikes in crude prices, traders are primarily focused on the supply and demand balance. Record U.S. production The U.S. is producing crude at a record pace, pumping an estimated 13.3 million barrels per day last week. Output is also at a record in Brazil and Guyana. The historic production outside OPEC has collided with an economic slowdown in major economies, above all China. OPEC and its allies, meanwhile, have promised to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, but traders apparently have little confidence that the bloc's policy will bring the market into balance.Oil production outside OPEC, above all in the U.S., is expected to more than cover demand growth in 2024, according to theInternational Energy Agency. Global oil demand growth is expect to fall by half to 1.1 million barrels per day next year, while output outside OPEC is expected grow by 1.2 mbd.The shift in crude supply from the Middle East to the U.S. and other Atlantic countries is "profoundly impacting the global oil trade," the IEA said in its December outlook. The U.S. was responsible for two-thirds of the growth in supply outside OPEC this year. This is challenging efforts by producers in the Middle East to defend their market share and lift oil prices, according to the IEA. OPEC seems to have little room to maneuver, with production cuts falling on deaf ears. Brazil has agreed to ally itself with the bloc, but it is not clear what that means for markets. CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC in December that U.S. production this year has reached levels that surprised even her. She had a message of caution for the industry. "It would be prudent of U.S. producers to be careful in terms of putting too much supply in the market," Hollub said. The Occidental CEO and Morgan Stanley do see U.S. crude prices bouncing back next year with a barrel of WTI averaging about $80. Wells Fargo has a lower forecast with WTI averaging $71.50 a barrel next year. While the market is focused on the supply and demand picture, Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets told investors to watch developments in the Middle East closely. "Anything that brings more direct confrontation with Iran and the United States is what you have to watch," Croft said Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Three U.S. troops were injured Monday in a drone attack in Iraq carried out by Iran-backed militants. President Joe Biden then ordered retaliatory strikes on militia sites. And attacks by Iran-backed militants in Yemen on vessels in the Red Sea caused global shipping companies to reroute some traffic from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The situation is also escalating on Israel's northern border with Lebanon. Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Tuesday that his country is facing a "multiarena war" from seven areas: Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. "If you look at the situation in the Middle East, I think it is far too soon to write off the risks there," RBC's Croft said.
Houthis and Saudis Commit to New Ceasefire and Roadmap for Peace - The warring sides in Yemen have agreed to a new ceasefire and to work on a UN-led roadmap for peace, UN special envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg announced on Saturday.A shaky truce between the Houthis and the US-backed Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has held relatively well since April 2022, but no lasting peace deal has been signed. The announcement from Grundberg came after a series of talks between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which has been based in Riyadh since 2014.Grundberg’s office said the two sides agreed “to a set of measures to implement a nationwide ceasefire, improve living conditions in Yemen, and engage in preparations for the resumption of an inclusive political process.” The UN envoy will now “engage with the parties to establish a roadmap under UN auspices that includes these commitments and supports their implementation.”The peace deal involves the payment of Yemeni civil workers living in Houthi-controlled areas, the easing of the blockade on the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, resuming more flights from the Sanaa airport, and the opening of roads around Taiz, a Yemeni city that has been under a Houthi siege.The Guardian first reported the existence of a Yemen peace deal and said the US was threatening to kill it over Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which have come in response to the Israeli onslaught on Gaza. The US could scuttle the agreement by redesignating the Houthis as a “foreign terrorist organization,” which would make the payment of civil workers and easing of the blockade impossible.For their part, the Saudis appear determined to follow through on the peace deal, as Riyadh has been urging the US not to strike the Houthis directly in response to the Red Sea attacks. The US launched a naval task force and official military operation in the Red Sea and has intercepted Houthi drones and missiles but has so far not bombed targets in Yemen. The war in Yemen has killed at least 377,000 people since 2015, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf nations intervened to fight the Houthis with full support from the US. More than half of those killed in the war died due to starvation and disease caused by the US-backed coalition’s brutal bombing campaign and blockade on Yemen.
Yemen's Houthis Claim US Missile Nearly Hit Tanker From Russia in Red Sea - Yemen's Houthi movement has claimed a missile from a US warship exploded near a tanker from Russia in the Red Sea. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia. The missile came from a US battleship targeting Yemen's naval forces, news organisation Al Arabiya reported on Sunday, citing comments from a Houthi representative. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia, according to the report. "Countries bordering the Red Sea must realize the reality of the dangers that threaten their national security," the Houthi representative was cited as saying. Commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea has come in for a spate of attacks from the Houthis in recent weeks in a response to the worsening conflict in Gaza. A tanker in the Indian Ocean was also targeted for a drone attack on Saturday, with the attack reportedly being launched from Iran.
Unidentified attackers blow up oil pipeline in Yemen after fuel price hike - (EFE). – An unidentified group of assailants blew up a key oil pipeline on Tuesday in Yemen’s oil-rich central province of Marib, amid escalating tensions between local authorities and tribal communities over a recent fuel price hike, security sources told EFE. The explosion, the second this week, caused a fire and significant damage to the pipeline, disrupting the flow of crude oil from the Jannah fields in neighboring Shabwa province to the Safer refinery in Marib, sources told EFE on condition of anonymity. Technical teams rushed to the scene to contain and extinguish the resulting fire at the facilities in Marib, a major oil production center about 190 kilometers northeast of the capital, Sana’a. The city is also the main base for forces of the internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, fighting Iran-aligned Houthi rebels who have been trying to take over the province’s oil fields since 2020. On Sunday, unidentified attackers blew up another pipeline carrying crude from Marib’s Raidan oil field to the refinery. Tensions have been simmering in Marib for several days due to growing discontent among local tribesmen over fuel price increases imposed by local authorities last week. These increases have sparked protests by armed tribesmen demanding a reduction. On Monday, unidentified assailants ambushed a military vehicle in the city of Marib, killing three soldiers, and another attack the same day killed the driver of a fuel tanker. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks.
Chinese, Iranian and Indian Warships Are Now in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden By John Helmer - A Russian military blog post posted on Thursday, December 21 at 11:33 Moscow time, has revealed the hitherto secret positions of all warships in the area which the Pentagon has announced for its OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.The fresh data and the open map (lead image) were not available when yesterday’s report was published at 09:32 Moscow time of Russia’s “two-track” strategy for opposing the US and NATO, and for protecting Russian oil shipments while the Houthi drone and missile operations are under way against Israel. No Russian Navy vessel is in the area at present although Russian crude oil cargoes are moving through the Red Sea with Iranian and Houthi agreement. Because these ship movements are defying US and NATO sanctions, it has been decided in Moscow to negotiate safe passage with Iran and Yemen rather than deploy the Russian Navy to protect them. However, the new combined US and NATO operation, targeting the Houthis and their Iranian support and supply systems, increases the possibility of a direct American, allied, or false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil.In yesterday’s morning report, I indicated that “the current whereabouts of the [Chinese] warship group has not been reported in the open press.”The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.The Russian map also reveals that the Iranian vessel MV Behshad is in a standing position in the Red Sea (lead image, top left of map). According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements – Russian, Chinese, Indian – and also hostile vessels of the US, British and French navies, tracking their positions; and relaying the data to Iran and probably to shore positions in Yemen. Although US media and Pentagon statements accuse the Ansar Allah government in Yemen and Houthi forces of acting as Iranian proxies in the war against Israel, there has been no disclosure before now of this vessel in the Red Sea.According to the western vessel tracking service VesselFinder, the Behshad is a “general cargo ship” flagged by Iran. It reportedly sailed from the port of the Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO) to reach its current position, which VesselFinder confirms in the southern half of the Red Sea as of fifteen minutes ago. The western source reports the vessel is at anchor in 6.5 metres of water.In the Pentagon announcement of December 18, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin claimed that “Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The new Russian intelligence now makes clear that the UK, France and Spain are already in the region, with the US.After Austin’s statement, his Italian counterpart announced that Italy is dispatching a frigate “to protect the prosperity of trade and guarantee freedom of navigation and international law…to increase the presence in the area in order to create the conditions for stabilization, avoid ecological disasters and also prevent a resumption of the inflationary push.”The Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias followed the Italian to say that Greece too is sending a frigate to join the US operation. Dendias is claiming the reason is that Greece is “the country with the largest ocean-going fleet [and so] has a primary interest in preserving the freedom of maritime zones and protecting the lives of seafarers.” What he means is that the involvement of Greek shipowners in the sanctions-busting Russian oil trade has been so profitable, Dendias wants to protect the Greek tankers and their owners; and at the same time avoid the embarrassment of being so disloyal to the US and European Union sanctions regime.For the time being, no Russian Navy vessel is reported in the Red Sea area, although reports indicate that the submarine Ufa is heading eastwards across the Mediterranean with a surface support vessel, and is likely to transit the Suez Canal and the Red Sea soon.For analysis of current Russian operations, plans, and policy, click to read this. For the full map display, including the Israeli port of Eilat and the Persian Gulf ports and naval bases, click to open for an enlarged view. The presence of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy’s destroyer Yang Man-chun was reported when it left its home port in September to be for a six-month mission to combat piracy and threats against cargo shipments headed to and from Korea. The map reveals it is currently off the Somali coast, near Indian, British, and US Navy vessels, as well as the Japanese Navy’s destroyer, JS Akebono. This warship has been in “training” with the USS Mason and the Eisenhower carrier squadron, but the Japanese are claiming it is engaged in “maritime security patrols in the GoA [Gulf of Aden], but is not involved in the new Operation Prosperity Guardian.” Operationally, US Navy releases indicate that the Japanese and the Korean destroyers are “working in coordination with U.S. Naval Forces Central Command” to combat both Somali pirates and Houthi operations.
India Deploys Three Warships To Waters Near Iran After Tanker Attack --The Indian Navy has deployed three guided missile destroyers to the Arabian Sea in response to an alleged drone attack on an Israeli-linked chemical tanker last week. New Delhi also uses long-range maritime patrol aircraft for “domain awareness,” the defense ministry reported Monday night. On Saturday, the Liberian-flagged MV Chem Pluto, a Japanese-owned tanker traveling 370km off the coast of India, was reportedly hit by a kamikaze drone, according to the Pentagon.The Israeli-linked tanker had been on its way from Saudi Arabia to India, according to maritime security firm Ambrey. The Indian Navy Washington blamed the attack on Iran, saying the drone had been launched “directly” from the Islamic Republic. “We declare these claims completely worthless,” said Nasser Kanaani, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, on Monday.“Such claims are aimed at projecting, distracting public attention, and covering up for the full support of the US government for the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza,” he added.Saturday's drone attack came less than a week after the US announced the formation of the so-called Operation Prosperity Guardian, described by US officials as a new “coalition of the willing” that seeks to counter the threat posed by Yemen in the Red Sea.Although the Yemeni armed forces have been conducting the attacks against Israeli-linked vessels of their own accord, the Pentagon insists Iran is somehow involved.
US Allies Reluctant to Join Anti-Houthi Red Sea Naval Coalition - While the US is trying to put on a united front to prevent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, many US allies are reluctant to participate in the task force that’s been formed, formally known as Operation Prosperity Guardian,Reuters reported on Thursday. The Pentagon claims 20 countries are participating in the operation, but the US has only announced 12. “We’ll allow other countries, defer to them to talk about their participation,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters last week. Even some of the countries the US said were members of the coalition have issued statements distancing themselves from it. After the US announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian and said Spain was a participant, Madrid denied its involvement. The Spanish Defense Ministry said it “will not participate unilaterally in the Red Sea operation.”Italy, which was also included in the US announcement, said it would send a frigate to protect Italian shipping interests but made clear the deployment was not part of the US-led operation.Notably absent from the coalition is Saudi Arabia, one of the US’s main partners in the region. The US has backed Riyadh in a war against the Houthis since 2015, but Saudi Arabia is now seeking peace and fears its involvement could provoke Houthi attacks on its oil infrastructure. Bahrain is the only Arab country that the US said was part of the operation.The Houthis started the attacks against Israel-linked shipping due to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and said they won’t stop until the siege ends. Countries are likely reluctant to participate in the US-led coalition because they don’t want to appear to be supporting the Israeli massacre, which has killed over 21,000 Palestinians.On Thursday, the US announced new sanctions targeting a financial network allegedly tied to the Houthis over the attacks in the Red Sea. There’s no sign the Houthis will back down in the face of US sanctions or other actions.
US Tries to Reassure Shippers of Red Sea Safety - The US military is trying to reassure shipping companies that a multinational force is making it safe to sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal even though attacks from Yemen-based Houthi rebels show no sign of stopping. The Pentagon is “engaged with industry on a near-daily basis to gauge needs and provide reassurance that the international community is there to help with safe passage,” Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bryon McGarry, a Defense Department spokesperson for the Middle East and Africa, said Thursday in an emailed response to questions. So far, that’s not proving enough for most shipping lines to gamble that a drone or missile aimed at their vessels won’t be one that gets past the defenses. “It will take a little while for shippers to get a sense about the security situation,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If it turns out that the US and the coalition can maintain safe passage, then I think they’ll come back. But right now they really can’t be sure.” Cancian said in an interview that some shippers will remain “more risk-averse than others. Ones that have connections with Israel might be more reticent.” The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have said they’re targeting ships linked to Israel to show support for Palestinians, though ships without direct links to Israel also have been singled out. On Thursday, the USS Mason, a guided missile destroyer, shot down a missile and a drone over the southern Red Sea, according to US Central Command. “There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area or reported injuries,” Central Command said in a Thursday night post on X, the former Twitter. Half of the container-ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is avoiding the route now because of the threat of attacks, according to new industry data. Many tankers and container ships are resorting to the longer — and costlier — route around the southern tip of Africa, which may lead to higher prices for oil and a variety of consumer goods. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s No. 2 container line, said it’s preparing to resume Red Sea passages “as soon as operationally possible.” But even Maersk has cautioned that “the overall risk is not eliminated in the area,” and the company said it would “not hesitate” to re-evaluate the safety situation for its vessels and employees.
Israel's Military Strikes Hezbollah Command Center In Serious Escalation This weekend has witnessed a significant escalation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border. Israeli media reported that a Hezbollah command center has been attacked. "The IDF says fighter jets have hit a Hezbollah military headquarters in Lebanon in response to attacks on northern Israel today, including one that left a soldier moderately wounded," TOI reports.This came following Hezbollah attacks on multiple Israeli military and civilian positions. The IDF then expanded its artillery shelling. While since Oct.7 exchanges of fire have been daily, the weekend saw an expansion of the frequency of these strikes.Northern Israel's Kibbutz Menara was attacked in the Saturday flare-up in violence. The northern Israel community said: "The harsh reality is that from the beginning of the war, dozens of missiles were fired towards the kibbutz, most of them anti-tank missiles. As a result, at least 86 out of 155 apartments were affected with various degrees of damage," according to an official statement issued by the Kibbutz. On Friday some 20 rockets were fired on Israel from Lebanon within only a 24-period. Early in the Gaza conflict, some days might have witnessed a handful of rockets and mortars fired in what has remained a "limited" front. But it's a deeply worrying sign that the 'norm' has now become dozens of projectiles exchanged on any given day.Soon after Oct.7, Israel began evacuating dozens of towns and settlements near the border, to within 2km of it, after Hezbollah rockets began raining down. At this point Israel says at least 80,000 of its citizens are still forced to stay away from their residences amid the Hezbollah threat. They have effectively become temporary refugees. In Gaza, the IDF issued a new casualty count over the weekend, as follows: The Israel Defense Forces announced Sunday the names of nine soldiers killed in fighting in the Gaza Strip throughout the previous day, bringing the number of troops killed over the entire weekend to 14, as the military deepened its offensive against the Hamas terror group. Five soldiers of the Combat Engineering Corps and a paramedic were killed by an anti-tank guided missile that hit a Namer armored engineering vehicle they were in, in southern Gaza. Another four were killed by bombs in two separate incidents during battles with gunmen in central Gaza. The deaths bring the number of troops killed since the start of the ground operation in late October to 153.
Israel kills Iranian general in Syrian strike - Israel has killed a high-ranking Iranian general in an airstrike in Syria, according to Iranian state media. The strike killed Seyed Razi Mousavi, an adviser to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, in the Sayida Zeinab neighborhood of the capital Damascus. The IRGC is a branch of the Iranian military. Iran’s state-run news agency reported Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel will pay for Mousavi’s death. Raisi said Mousavi was a close associate of the deceased Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli military targeted Mousavi after he entered a farm in the area, allegedly one of several offices for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran. The strike comes amid continued clashes between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israeli strikes killed two other generals in Syria earlier this month. It has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets in government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years. Israel has said strikes in Syria were targeting Iranian-backed groups that have supported the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but it usually does not acknowledge its strikes in Syria.
Iran vows Israel ‘will pay’ for death of military leader -- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi vowed retribution after Israel reportedly killed a high-ranking general in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria on Monday.In a statement, Raisi said that Israel “will certainly pay for this crime,” The Times of Israel (TOI)reported.“Without a doubt, this action is another sign of frustration, helplessness, and incapacity of the usurping Zionist regime in the region,” Raisi said in the statement. Brig. Gen. Razi Mousavi was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Damascus suburb of Sayida Zeinab, the Iranian Tasnim news agency reported Monday. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari declined to comment on the alleged airstrike at a Monday press conference, TOI reported.
Iran dismisses Western criticism of its hike in uranium enrichment, says part of peaceful nuclear programme -Iran's foreign ministry on Friday rejected criticism by France, Germany, Britain and the United States of its increase in uranium enrichment, saying this was part of its peaceful nuclear programme. "Enrichment at 60% level in Iran's enrichment centres has always been and will continue to be in accordance with the peaceful needs of the country and fully under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency," foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani told state media.
Iran Atomic Chief: Claims of Escalated Enrichment Untrue, Nothing New in Nuclear Work - On Wednesday, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, said that Western media reports of acceleration of uranium enrichment were totally unfounded, suggesting the US was hyping the claim as an attempt to distract from the goings-on in the Gaza Strip.“We are proceeding with our current activity within the framework of the regulations,” Eslami told reporters at the sidelines of a cabinet meeting. He added Iran is continuing to enrich uranium to 60%, stating “we have neither changed our work nor expanded our capacity.”The US claimed, citing the IAEA, that Iran has tripled their production of “near weapons-grade” uranium in recent weeks, saying since November, they were up to approximately 9 kg per month whereas in June they were producing only 3 kg.This is typical US hype about Iran’s production, centering its allegations on the untruth that 60% enrichment is “near weapons-grade,” when weapons-grade is more than 90% purity, something Iran has never attempted to produce.Even if Iran has increased the 60% rate of production, which Eslami insists they have not, it is a huge leap to convert the uranium further to weapons-grade, even with their best centrifuges. The fact that they’ve never tried to set things up to do so would make this a trial-and-error process.If we grant that, given enough time, Iran might be able to overcome this obstacle, it would still take 40-50 kg of 90% uranium to even attempt to produce a simple atomic bomb. That’s more than it sounds like, as increasing enrichment involves the separation of the U-235 and eliminating the rest, which is waste. In this process, the resulting mass necessarily goes down, so 9 kg of 60% uranium would produce a considerably smaller amount of 90% enriched uranium – the minimum needed to even think of making a weapon.If Iran pulled all of this off, they would still need to conduct a test detonation to prove that their weapon design worked. If the test succeeded – and it might not, the first detonation by multiple nations struggled greatly with the atomic yield – all that is purely theoretical.Beyond the fact that Iran would just have wasted 40-50 kg on a test explosion, they would probably have used most of their stockpile in doing so. However, assuming they had enough weapons-grade material to go ahead, they’d next have to work on the difficult process of miniaturization to try to make the weapon in a deliverable form.All in all, this is a lot of hoops to jump through to get from a small but active 60% enrichment, the rate of which sounds massively overstated, to a functional, deliverable atomic bomb. Even in the best case, this would take many years to accomplish, and would require Iran to fairly publicly admit they were headed down that road, something which would invite a US attack.
Israel Routinely Dropping US-Supplied 2,000-lb Bombs In Dense Civilian Areas As civilian casualties in the Israel-Hamas war continue to mount -- surpassing 20,000 from a population of just 2 million -- alarm is growing over Israel's all-too-eager use of a particularly devastating weapon: the 2,000-pound MK-84 bomb. Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas on Earth. For most other militaries, that would be cause for restraint, particularly where the MK-84 is concerned, given its 3,280-foot hazardous blast radius. However, as the IDF presses its campaign against the militant group Hamas and its elaborate tunnel system, it's exhibiting an unusually high tolerance for civilian harm. Proportionally, the rate of damage to civilian buildings in Gaza is already triple what Nazi Germany suffered from Allied bombs in World War II. On Friday alone, Israel reportedly killed more than 90 Palestinians, including women in children, when it leveled two houses in two different areas of Gaza. One particularly vivid display of the MK-84's sheer power -- and Israel's lack of restraint -- came with the IDF's Oct. 31 strike on Jabalya, in northern Gaza, which obliterated a large residential area. “[That strike is] something we would never see the US doing," Larry Lewis, research director at the Center for Naval Analyses, tells CNN. “It certainly appears that (Israel’s) tolerance for civilian harm compared to expected operational benefits is significantly different than what we would accept." For perspective, consider that the US military used only one MK-84 bomb during its entire fight with ISIS. However, it's poured an astounding 5,400 of them into Israel's arsenal since the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel. Defying IDF assurances that it seeks to minimize civilian casualties, a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery suggests that Israel has even dropped more than 200 MK-84 bombs in the area of South Gaza where it told Palestinians to flee for safety. The IDF has brushed aside inquiries about its use of the extraordinarily destructive bombs. "Questions of this kind will be looked into at a later stage," a spokesman told the Times, adding that the IDF “takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”“The devastation that we’ve seen for communities in Gaza is unfortunately co-signed by the United States,” John Chappell of the DC-based Center for Civilians in Conflict tells CNN. “Too much of it is carried out by bombs that were made in the United States.” Expect that damning fact to be long-remembered by the survivors of Israel's Gaza campaign -- and millions of others who sympathize with them. Whether one supports the US government's arming of Israel or not, nobody should be so naive as to think it doesn't endanger American lives -- particularly when you consider the type of people who now control Israel's arsenal.
Egypt’s Gaza peace proposal gets cool reception - Egypt’s peace proposal for Hamas to give up power in the Gaza Strip in exchange for a permanent end of hostilities in the region has been met with a cool reception from both sides. A senior Egyptian official and a European diplomat familiar with the proposal told The Associated Press that the plan would call for a phased release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian government of experts to oversee Gaza and the West Bank. The Egyptian official said Egypt worked on the details of the plan with Qatar and presented it to Israel, Hamas, the United States and multiple European countries.But Israel and Hamas both did not seem enthusiastic to accept the plan, although neither directly rejected it entirely.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told members of his Likud Party that he is focused on Israel continuing with its offensive to remove Hamas from power in Gaza, saying the fight will be expanding in the coming days. Netanyahu also said the battle will be long and the fight “isn’t close to finished.” Hamas has not officially responded to the proposal, but top official Izzat Rishq said in a statement that it will not negotiate without a “complete end to the aggression.” “Our people want to stop the aggression, and are not waiting for a temporary or partial truce for a short period of time that will be followed by more aggression and terrorism,” Rishq said. Two Egyptian security sources told Reuters that Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian militant group in Gaza, have rejected the proposal, but officials from both groups denied to the outlet what the sources said. Pressure has risen on Israel over how it is conducting the offensive in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 20,000, according to Palestinian health officials. At least 68 people were killed in arecent Israeli strike in central Gaza. President Biden has somewhat increased his criticism of Israel’s approach in recent weeks as the war has continued and casualties mount. The war has raged for more than two-and-a-half months since Hamas, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, European Union and several other countries, launched an attack on Israel on Oct. 7. The attack claimed the lives of 1,200 people, and more than 200 in the country were taken as hostages in Gaza.
Israel's Security Agency Ignored Warning from Gaza Source About October 7 Attack - Months before the October 7 attack on southern Israel, the Israeli security agency Shin Bet received a warning from one of its sources in Gaza that Hamas was planning to carry out a “big move” shortly after Yom Kippur, which took place on September 25 this year, Israel’s Channel 12 reported. The report said Shin Bet dismissed the warning as insignificant, and the intelligence did not make it to senior officials in the agency or its chief, Ronen Bar. Shin Bet sources said the lack of corroborating intelligence and the fact that the source only recently started talking to the Israeli agency contributed to the tip not being taken seriously, although they later admitted the source was considered highly reliable. The tip was just one of many pieces of intelligence that was ignored or not taken seriously by the Israeli security establishment, which led to Israel failing to prevent the October 7 Hamas attack. The New York Times reported in November that Israel had obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the October 7 attack more than a year before it took place, but Israeli military and intelligence officials did not believe Hamas was capable of carrying it out. The Times report said the document Israel obtained “did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters” and added that Hamas followed the blueprint with “shocking precision.” According to Haaretz, Israeli military officials also ignored warnings from women in the Israeli Defense Forces who worked as “spotters” on the Gaza border. The women spent their days watching surveillance footage and reported unusual Hamas activity for an entire year, but their warnings were not taken seriously.
Netanyahu Says He's Looking for Countries to 'Absorb' Palestinians from Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a meeting of his Likud party on Monday that he’s working to bring about the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and looking for countries willing to “absorb” them,” Israel Hayom reported.“Our problem is countries that are ready to absorb them, and we are working on it,” Netanyahu said. His comments are the latest sign that Israel’s ultimate goal is to cleanse Gaza of its 2.3 million Palestinian residents.Netanyahu said the world is “already discussing the possibilities of voluntary immigration” and pointed to comments from former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who is currently running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Haley said last week that Palestinians in Gaza should migrate to “pro-Hamas” countries.Netanyahu said that a team must be set up to “ensure that those who want to leave Gaza to a third country can do so. It needs to be settled. It has strategic importance for the day after the war.”Last month, Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel penned an op-ed for The Jerusalem Post calling for the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to other countries around the world. Two members of the Israeli Knesset wrote a similar op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that said Western nations should accept Palestinian refugees.While Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have framed the plan as “voluntary resettlement,” Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza is making much of the enclave uninhabitable. About 90% of Gaza’s population has already been internally displaced. A leaked document drafted by Gamliel’s Intelligence Ministry said pushing all 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza into Egypt was the ideal scenario for the Israeli government. But Egypt has refused to take in any Palestinian refugees, forcing Israeli officials to look elsewhere to facilitate their planned ethnic cleansing.
Netanyahu Vows to Expand Operations in Gaza, Says War Isn't Close to Finished - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to expand military operations in Gaza and said the brutal assault on the besieged enclave is not close to being finished.“We are not stopping. We are continuing to fight, and we will be intensifying the fighting in the coming days, and the fighting will take long and it is not close to concluding,” Netanyahu said on Monday.The following day, the Israeli military said it was expanding ground operations in refugee camps in central Gaza after Israeli airstrikes pounded the area. Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Tuesday that Israeli operations in Gaza will continue for “many months.”The comments about increased operations and a long war come after US officials have said they want Israel to wrap up its current phase of operations, which involves constant airstrikes and ground offensives, and transition into more targeted attacks on Hamas leadership. But there’s no indication Israel is listening to the US advice, and the Biden administration continues to provide unconditional military aid.Netanyahu made similar comments while visiting an IDF intelligence unit. “We are continuing the war, and are intensifying the fighting in the southern Gaza Strip and other places. We will fight to the end, with the help of the most advanced technology,” he said.Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israel’s bombardment killed 241 Palestinians and wounded 382 in the past 24 hours. The Palestinian death toll is close to 21,000, including over 8,000 children.Many more could end up dying from hunger as a recent report using data from the UN and other aid agencies operating in Gaza found over 570,000 Palestinians in the Strip are starving and facing famine-like conditions.
Erdogan On The Attack Again, Says Netanyahu 'No Different Than Hitler' --Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has continued to heap denunciations and insults on Israel in relation to its military operation in Gaza and the immense civilian death toll. Since the Israeli military's major offensive in the wake of Oct.7, Erdogan's verbal attacks have grown, taking Turkey-Israel relations to a historical low-point. This time Erdogan played the 'Hitler card' after having already called Israel a "terror state". He said Wednesday at an event in Ankara: Sharpening his rhetoric, Erdogan said Turkey would welcome academics and scientists facing persecution for their views on the conflict in Gaza, adding Western countries supporting Israel were complicit in what he called war crimes. "They used to speak ill of Hitler. What difference do you have from Hitler? They are going to make us miss Hitler. Is what this Netanyahu is doing any less than what Hitler did? It is not," Erdogan said.Turkey's president continued in the blistering speech, adding: "He is richer than Hitler, he gets the support from the West. All sorts of support comes from the United States. And what did they do with all this support? They killed more than 20,000 Gazans."But even in the midst of what are now weekly denunciations coming from the Turkish presidency, Ankara still maintains commercial times with Israel, though trade has fallen significantly since Oct.7.Israeli Prime Minister responded with his own counter-attack, telling Erdogan he's the "last one who can preach morality." He took to X to say, "Erdogan, who commits genocide against the Kurds, who holds a world record for imprisoning journalists who oppose his rule, is the last one who can preach morality to us."The timing of the exchange is interesting given Turkey's military has in the last days been stepping up strikes on Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria, in retaliation for deaths of 12 Turkish soldiers in Iraq over the weekend.Israel has for years quietly given assistance to northern Iraq's Kurds toward the realization of an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Israel has also supported US efforts to assist Syrian Kurds and deny Damascus' ability to access its own oil and gas fields in northeast Syria.
India’s turnaround on Palestine has more than meets the eye - Indian diplomacy is ending 2023 with a momentous turnaround. What began as a course correction necessitated by the torrential flow of events in West Asia is assuming strategic overtones.Truly, the aberration in India’s policies can be traced to the UPA rule (2004-2014) but it is under the period since then 2014 that they accentuated phenomenally and began creating contradictions undermining national interests. This aberration also led to a serious erosion of India’s strategic autonomy in a transformative international environment.India’s voting pattern in the United Nations with regard to the Israel-Palestine conflict is lately marked by a calibrated distancing from Israel. Only a few weeks ago, Israel’s ambassador in Delhi bullishly described the Indian stance as one of “100% support” to his country. But that is no more the case today.Delhi has rejected the repeated Israeli entreaties to declare Hamas as a terrorist organisation, marking its independent opinion regarding the ecosystem of resistance movements. Indeed, this is a highly significant distinction that Delhi is making vis-a-vis the Israeli and Western narrative about Hamas. although India has not hesitated to condemn the violence directed against Israel on October 7, it refused to name Hamas.Considering that Hamas had a chequered past of receiving patronage from Israel, Tel Aviv has no right to expect Delhi to dance to its tunes. Equally, Hamas’ future is far from an open and shut case. The fact that Sinn Fein and Irish opinion has shown empathy towards Hamas, or that South Africa, which has itself been a victim of apartheid, has recalled its ambassador and diplomatic mission to Israel, calling the horrific Gaza killings as “genocide,” go to show that the embers of national liberation struggle are still burning.Although India expressed “solidarity” with the Israeli people over the brutal violence on October 7, it cannot condone the vastly disproportionate Israeli retaliation since then, blithely calling it a matter of Israel’s ‘right to self-defence’. On December 13, India voted in favour of a resolution in the UN General Assembly that demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.This was the first time India supported such a resolution since the war broke out more than two months ago. Such a stance puts India on the right side of history, as the 193-member UNGA overwhelmingly adopted the resolution at an emergency special session, with 153 nations voting in its favour.A third aspect is that from a geopolitical perspective, Delhi has marked its distance from the US-Israeli campaign branding Iran as the instigator of extremist groups acting against Israel. Interestingly, on December 19, India was one of only thirty states — along with Russia and China — who voted against a UN resolution on “the human rights situation in Iran.”The running thread here is that India has reverted to its traditional stance on the Palestine problem and jettisoned the tilt supportive of Israeli interests. The unprecedented unity among the Arab countries, the close coordination between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the huge groundswell of opinion in the Arab world against Israeli atrocities against the Palestinian populations in Gaza and West Bank — all this has created a new momentum in Middle East politics that has pitchforked the Palestine problem to the centre stage, which is something India cannot afford to ignore. Nor can Delhi be oblivious of the new reality that something has fundamentally changed in the dynamics of the Palestine problem after the events since October 7. The Israeli ploys of dissimulation and evasiveness and deliberate wrecking of dialogue process and negotiations may no longer work. Indeed, Israel’s overwhelming military superiority vis-a-vis its Arab neighbours has lost its relevance. Coupled with the US’ loss of influence and America’s waning global hegemony alongside the sharp polarisation of opinion within Israel itself internally add up to create grave uncertainties regarding the future of the state of Israel as it exists today.
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