figure on 1st withdrawal of natural gas from storage over the week just ended; horizontal drilling was at a 31 month low

oil prices were modestly higher this past week, as repeated rumors that a US-China trade deal was imminent continued to goose financial & energy markets...after falling 0.8% to $56.20 a barrel as pressure from increasing oil supplies outweighed trade hopes and improving economic data last week, prices of US light sweet crude for December delivery slid to as low as $55.83 early Monday before talk of a meeting between Chinese President Xi and Trump and Saudi Arabia’s offering of public stock in state oil giant Aramco fueled optimism and pushed prices to a 6 week high at $57.43 a barrel, before settling back to $56.54, a gain of 43 cents on the day...hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement and optimism that Trump would roll back some of the tariffs he had imposed on Chinese imports pushed prices higher on Tuesday, as the benchmark US crude price rose 69 cents, or 1.2%, to close at a 6 week high of $57.23 a barrel...however, prices started sliding in after hours trading Tuesday after the API reported a larger than expected build of crude supplies and continued lower throughout the Wednesday session, pulled down by the EIA report of a much larger-than-expected crude inventory build and by weak euro zone economic data, and ultimately ended 88 cents lower at $56.35 a barrel...but prices bounced back on Thursday, rising 80 cents throughout the day to finish at $57.15 a barrel, buoyed once again by optimism for a potential resolution of the U.S.-China trade dispute...renewed uncertainty over trade then pushed prices much lower early Friday, with oil trading as low as $55.76 after Trump said that he had not agreed to roll back tariffs on China, but pared those losses in the afternoon to end the day 9 cents higher at $57.24 a barrel...oil prices thus shrugged off this week's big inventory build and trade uncertainty to finish at a 6 week high, nearly 1.9% higher than the prior week's close...

natural gas prices were also higher this week amid warnings of a historically severe outbreak of cold temperatures across the eastern two thirds of the US... after rising more than 10% to $2.714 per mmBTU on the arrival of cold weather last week, the price of natural gas for December delivery rose 10.7 cents on Monday and another 4.1 cents on Tuesday, as weather guidance after the weekend indicated it would be much colder the following week...but prices then fell 3.4 cents on Wednesday despite forecasts for 15 degrees below normal 6 to 10 days out, as weaker cold showed up in the 11 to 15 day outlook,...despite a modest rally after the storage report, prices turned lower on a milder forecast Thursday at ended 5.6 cents lower at $2.772 per mmBTU....prices then inched up 1.7 cents on Friday to end the week 2.8% higher that the prior Friday at $2.789 per mmBTU..

the natural gas storage report for the week ending November 1st from the EIA indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in storage in the US increased by 34 billion cubic feet to 3,729 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which meant our gas supplies were 530 billion cubic feet, or 16.6% more than the 3,199 billion cubic feet that were in storage on November 1st of last year, and 29 billion cubic feet, or 0.8% above the five-year average of 3,700 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 1st of November in recent years....this week's 34 billion cubic feet injection into US natural gas storage was the smallest since April 5th, 5 billion cubic feet less than the average forecast for a 39 billion cubic feet injection from analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, and well below the average 57 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to gas storage during the last week of October over the past 5 years, the 1st below average storage build in 15 weeks and only the 3rd below average increase in 34 weeks...the 2,569 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the 32 weeks of this year's injection season are still near a modern record, eclipsed only by the record 2727 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were injected into storage over the same 32 weeks of the 2014 natural gas injection season...

while there is still a chance for a small injection in next week's report, this week may have been the last one for this year, as the following two graphs from the EIA's Natural Gas Storage Dashboard will show....the first graph we have below shows US residential and commercial natural gas use over the period from October 25th to November 7th, thus covering the current reporting week and the next one, with the November 6th and 7th figures being estimates based on weather forecasts...

as the legend indicates, the blue graph shows this year's daily residential and commercial natural gas use over the period, and the green graph shows the residential and commercial natural gas use for the same dates in 2018, while the grey-shaded background shows the range of usage over the prior 5 years...this is from an interactive graphic, so you can get the exact daily totals by going to the EIA's Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and mousing over each part of the graph in question...you can check my addition, but it appears that this week's residential and commercial natural gas use was 54 billion cubic feet more than that of the current report week, which would suggest a withdrawal of natural gas from stoarage except for what the next graph shows..

the above graph, formatted just like the first one, shows electric utility natural gas use over the period, and as you can see, this reporting week had been unusually high, presumably due to late season air conditioning in the East, where temperatures averaged 5 to 9 degrees above normal over the period, even as the rest of the country was colder than normal...again, by my hand count, this week's utility natural gas use was 10 billion cubic feet less than last week's, not enough to make up for the larger residential increase, which hence still suggests that the coming report will show a modest withdrawal...there are other factors, such as exports and imports, especially across the Canadian border, which impact our supply in any given week, but none are as volatile week to week as residential and commercial consumption and electric power generation...

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 1st showed that because of a big drop in our oil exports and a slowdown in our refining, we had surplus oil to add to our stored supplies for the seventh time in the past eight weeks...our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 620,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,077,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 840,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 956,000 barrels per day to an average of 2,371,000 barrels per day during the week, which meant that our effective trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 3,706,000 barrels of per day during the week ending November 1st, 336,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week...over the same period, the production of crude oil from US wells was reported to be unchanged at a record 12,600,000 barrels per day, so our daily supply of oil from the net of our trade in oil and from well production totaled an average of 16,306,000 barrels per day during this reporting week..

meanwhile, US oil refineries were reportedly processing 15,761,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 1st, 237,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil they used during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA reported that a net average of 1,033,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US....hence, this week's crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports and from oilfield production was 488,000 barrels per day less than what was reportedly added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week....to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA inserted a (+488,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and the consumption of it balance out, essentially a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil"....that unaccounted oil means that one or all of the oil metrics that the EIA has reported and that we have just transcribed are necessarily well off the mark...however, since the media and most analysts treat these figures as gospel and since they drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill for oil, we continue to report them just as they're seen & believed by everyone else (for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that "unaccounted for" oil, see this EIA explainer).... 

further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to an average of 6,232,000 barrels per day last week, now 17.4% less than the 7,554,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year....the 1,033,000 barrel per day net addition to our total crude inventories was despite a withdrawal of 100,000 barrels per day from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which means that 1,133,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil....this week's crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at a record 12,600,000 barrels per day because the rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at a record 12,100,000 barrels per day, while a 28,000 barrel per day increase to 484,000 barrels per day in Alaska's oil production was not enough to impact the final rounded total...last year's US crude oil production for the week ending November 2nd was rounded to 11,600,000 barrels per day, so this reporting week's rounded oil production figure was 8.6% above that of a year ago, and 49.5% more than the interim low of 8,428,000 barrels per day that US oil production fell to during the last week of June of 2016...   

meanwhile, US oil refineries were operating at 86.0% of their capacity in using 15,761,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 1st, down from 87.1% of capacity the prior week, and somewhat below normal for early November...as a result, the 15,761,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week was 3.9% below the 16,408,000 barrels of crude per day that were being processed during the week ending November 2nd, 2018, when US refineries were operating at 90.0% of capacity....

with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 148,000 barrels per day to 10,036,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 1st, after our refineries' gasoline output had increased by 86,000 barrels per day the prior week....but even with that decrease in gasoline output, this week's gasoline production was 3​.​3% higher than the 9,714,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year....at the same time, our refineries' production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) fell by 95,000 barrels per day to 4,875,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 205,000 barrels per day over the prior week...with this week's decrease in distillates output, our distillates' production this week was 1.8% below the 4,963,000 barrels of distillates per day that were being produced during the week ending November 2nd, 2018....

with the decrease in our gasoline production, our supply of gasoline in storage at the end of the week decreased for the 14th time in 20 weeks and for the 28th time in thirty-five weeks, falling by 2,828,000 barrels to 217,229,000 barrels during the week to November 1st, after our gasoline supplies had decreased by 3,037,000 barrels over the prior week....our gasoline supplies were down again this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US markets decreased by 639,000 barrels per day to 9,145,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline fell by 180,000 barrels per day to 493,000 barrels per day and because our exports of gasoline rose by 357,000 barrels per day to 1,009,000 barrels per day....after this week's decrease, our gasoline supplies were 4.7% lower than last November 2nd's inventory level of 228,021,000 barrels, and but remained roughly 1% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year...

likewise, with the decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 22nd time in the past 32 weeks, decreasing by 622,000 barrels to 119,132,000 barrels during the week ending November 1st, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,715,000 barrels over the prior week...our distillates supplies fell by less this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 4,296,000 barrels per day, because our imports of distillates rose by 148,000 barrels per day to 306,000 barrels per day and because our exports of distillates fell by 38,000 barrels per day to 974,000 barrels per day...after this week's inventory decrease, our distillate supplies were down by 3.0% from the 122,857,000 barrels of distillates that we had stored on November 2nd, 2018, but improved to around 9% below the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year, since prior years saw greater decreases during the same week ...

finally, this week's drop in oil exports coupled with the decrease in refinery throughput meant our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the ninth time in twenty-one weeks and for the nineteenth time in 41 weeks, increasing by 7,929,000 barrels, from 438,853,000 barrels on October 25th to 446,782,000 barrels on November 1st ...that increase lifted our crude oil inventories to 3% above the five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, and to nearly 33% higher than the prior 5 year (2009 - 2013) average of crude oil stocks as of the beginning of November, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn't until early 2015 that our oil inventories first rose above 400 million barrels...since our crude oil inventories had generally been rising over the past year up until July, after generally falling until then through most of the prior year and a half, our oil supplies as of October 25th were 3.5% above the 431,787,000 barrels of oil we had stored on November 2nd of 2018, but at the same time were 2.3% below the 457,143,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 3rd of 2017, and 7.9% below the 485,010,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on November 4th of 2016...   

This Week's Rig Count

the US rig count fell for the 11th time in 12 weeks and for the 34th time in 38 weeks over the week ending November 8th, and is now down by 24.6% since the end of last year....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs running in the US fell by 5 rigs to a 31 month low of 817 rigs this past week, which was also down by 264 rigs from the 1081 rigs that were in use as of the November 9th report of 2018, and 1102 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, the week before OPEC began their attempt to flood the global oil market...

the number of rigs drilling for oil decreased by 7 to a 31 month low of 684 oil rigs this week, which was also 202 fewer oil rigs than were running a year ago, and quite a bit below the recent high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014...at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations remained unchanged at 130 natural gas rigs, still down by 65 rigs from the 193 natural gas rigs that were drilling a year ago, and way down from the modern era high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008...in addition to those drilling for oil & gas, three rigs classified as miscellaneous were also ​deployed this week; one on the big island of Hawaii, one in Washoe county Nevada, and one in Lake county California, in contrast to a year ago, when there were no such "miscellaneous" rigs deployed..

offshore drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico increased by 1 rig to 22 rigs this week, as another rig was added to those drilling offshore from Louisiana this week...the 22 rigs drilling in Louisiana's offshore waters was one ​more than the Gulf of Mexico rig count of 21 a year ago, when 19 rigs were drilling in Louisiana waters and two were drilling offshore from Texas...in addition to the Gulf, one rig continues to drill offshore from the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, whereas a year ago the only offshore rigs were in the Gulf...hence, the national total of 23 offshore rigs is up by 2 rigs from the 21 rigs that were deployed offshore a year ago...

the count of active horizontal drilling rigs was down by 7 rigs to 710 horizontal rigs this week, which was the least horizontal rigs deployed since April 13th, 2017 and hence is virtually a new 31 month low for horizontal drilling...that was also 225 fewer horizontal rigs than the 935 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on November 9th of last year, and also well down from the record of 1372 horizontal rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014.....in addition, the vertical rig count decreased by 1 to 51 vertical rigs this week, and those were down by 21 from the 72 vertical rigs that were operating during the same week of last year....on the other hand, the directional rig count increased by 3 rigs to 56 directional rigs this week, but those were ​also ​down by 18 from the 74 directional rigs that were in use on November 9th of 2018...

the details on this week's changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes...the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins...in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 8th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week's count (November 1st) and this week's (November 8th) count, the third column shows last week's November 1st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 9th of November, 2018...  

the 4 rig drop in New Mexico all came out of the Permian basin, since the net of Permian basin activity in Texas was unchanged, as 3 rigs were pulled out of Texas Oil District 8, or the core Permian Delaware, while 3 rigs were added in Texas Oil District 7C, or the southern Permian Midland...the 3 rig drop in Texas ​represents the 3 rig drop in the Eagle Ford shale in the southeast of the state, with 2 of those coming out of Texas Oil District 1 and the other removed from Texas Oil District 4, while drilling activity in all other Texas districts was unchanged...the rig pulled out of North Dakota had obviously been drilling in the Williston, while additions shown above include a​ ​n​ew​ oil rig in an unnamed Alaska basin, an oil rig in Oklahoma's Cana Woodford, and the aforementioned "miscellaneous"​ ​rig in California...the 'miscellaneous' rig in Nevada, meanwhile, represents the first drilling in that state since September of last year...while the table shows no evidence of changes in natural gas drilling, there was in fact a natural gas rig start-up in the northern Louisiana Haynesville while that basin's lone oil rig was shut down, while at the same time one of the 3 rigs pulled out of the Eagle Ford had been targeting natural gas, leaving the Eagle Ford deployment at 7 natural gas rigs and 53 rigs targeting oil...

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Changes could come on fracking on public land - Wooster Daily Record - Ohio Oil and Gas Leasing Commission members plan to recommend changes to state law governing fracking on public land and the size and operations of the commission. The commission meeting held Wednesday morning at the Ohio Department of Natural Resources offices was the group’s first since Gov. Mike DeWine took office.  Changes, proposed by ODNR staff, were presented to the five-member commission, which is chaired by Mike Angle, chief of Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ Division of Geological Survey, and includes two members representing oil and gas interests, attorneys Matt W. Warnock and Michael W. Wise; one member representing the environment, Richard Shank, former director of the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and now board president of the Ohio Environmental Council; and a public representative, Steve Buehrer, former state Bureau of Workers’ Compensation CEO. Some of the proposed changes include:

• ‒ Adding members to the commission, which could include other representations such as universities or recreational interests.
• ‒ Ensuring there are no conflicts of interest involving commission members when it comes to mineral rights.
• ‒ Clarifying language to allow state agencies to make lease stipulations.
• ‒ Revising state law to allow agencies to use revenues where they see fit.
• ‒ Requiring nominating groups for leasing land for fracking to conduct necessary title work rather than ODNR.

Ohio Oil and Gas Leasing Commission to recommend changes to law covering fracking on public land - The Columbus Dispatch   An Ohio commission created to oversee fracking on or below state-owned property is recommending changes in law to the legislature.Ohio Oil and Gas Leasing Commission members plan to recommend changes to state law governing fracking on public land and the size and operations of the commission.The commission meeting held Wednesday morning at the Ohio Department of Natural Resources offices was the group’s first since Gov. Mike DeWine took office.  Changes, proposed by ODNR staff, were presented to the five-member commission, which is chaired by Mike Angle, chief of Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ Division of Geological Survey, and includes two members representing oil and gas interests, attorneys Matt W. Warnock and Michael W. Wise; one member representing the environment, Richard Shank, former director of the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and now board president of the Ohio Environmental Council; and a public representative, Steve Buehrer, former state Bureau of Workers’ Compensation CEO. Buehrer was absent Wednesday.  “I think we see these ideas ... as the initiation of a much larger conversation,” said Brittney Colvin, a deputy director at ODNR who oversees three divisions, including Oil and Gas Resources Management. “That conversation that takes place between us and the commission, but also I believe with a lot of other stakeholders, whether that be the members of the General Assembly, or certainly important stakeholders that have various vested interest in development.” Some of the proposed changes include:

• Adding members to the commission, which could include other representations such as universities or recreational interests.
• Ensuring there are no conflicts of interest involving commission members when it comes to mineral rights.
• Clarifying language to allow state agencies to make lease stipulations.
• Revising state law to allow agencies to use revenues where they see fit.
• Requiring nominating groups for leasing land for fracking to conduct necessary title work rather than ODNR.

Other states have different policies on allowing drilling for oil and natural gas on public land. In Pennsylvania, for example, the governor issued a moratorium in 2015 on leasing state-owned land for drilling that remains in effect pending scientific review of its effects. There are more than 153,000 acres leased for conventional drilling and 102,000 acres leased for horizontal drilling in that state, according to Colvin’s presentation to commission members.

Toledo Refining officials hopeful about Enbridge Line 5 after recent court ruling | Toledo Blade -- A ruling that will allow oil to keep flowing under the Straits of Mackinac has been enthusiastically received at Toledo Refining Co. in East Toledo, where some employees and management had feared that a permanent closure of that pipeline would, in turn, lead to a permanent shutdown of their refinery and the 550 jobs associated with it.  At issue is Enbridge, Inc., pipeline known as Line 5, which traverses 645 miles of North America and bisects Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. The existing pipeline, laid 67 years ago to help keep oil tankers off the Great Lakes, runs almost parallel to and just west of the Mackinac Bridge. The pipeline has long been controversial, and on Thursday Judge Michael Kelly of the Michigan Court of Claims found that Michigan legislators did not violate the state constitution when the majority voted in favor of a proposal to bury the pipeline inside a tunnel beneath the water in an attempt to alleviate environmental concerns. Scott Hayes, Toledo Refining’s health, safety, environmental and governmental affairs manager, points out there are still other legal hurdles to clear and probable appeals to be heard.  But he said the recent judge’s decision “is the first step in ensuring energy security, safety and health, economic stability, and improved environmental protections.” He claimed a tunnel will take “the risk of a catastrophic failure from minimal to zero.” Likewise, Brendan Williams, chief policy adviser in Washington for PBF Energy, which owns the refinery, called the ruling “an important step.”  PBF has said its 122-year-old refinery in East Toledo is especially at risk if Line 5 doesn’t remain open, claiming the company would have no viable options but to close the facility because of how dependent refinery operations have become on it.

Gulfport to divest non-operated Utica Shale assets - Gulfport Energy is working to sell some of its interests in Ohio’s Utica Shale, Kallanish Energy reports. The company said the proceeds from the potential sale of non-operated interests in eastern Ohio would offset higher-than-expected non-operated capital spending in 2019 in the Utica. The company expects to complete the Utica assets sale before Dec. 31, 2019, it said, in a statement. The buyer was not identified nor was the size of the potential sale. Oklahoma-based Gulfport has leases on rougthly 210,000 net acres in the Utica. The company lost $48.8 million, or 31 cents per share, during the third quarter of 2019. Its average production was equivalent to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. The Utica Shale accounts for 80% of Gulfport’s production. It is running one rig in the Utica. In the most recent quarter, the company drilled two Utica wells and began production on 16 Utica wells. In its statement, Gulfport also said it's continuing to pursue the previously announced proposed sale of certain water infrastructure assets in the SCOOP play of Oklahoma. Gulfport also reported it recently sold certain overriding royalty interests associated with assets in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota and Montana. It was paid $8 million by an unnamed third party. Net production from the assets average 68.6 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (Boe/d) in the nine months ended Sept. 30.

Cause of Philadelphia fire sounds alarm over aging U.S. refineries - (Reuters) - How did a piece of piping installed when Richard Nixon was U.S. president go without once being checked before leading to a fire that devastated the East Coast’s largest and oldest oil refinery? That’s a question safety experts and activists are putting to regulators after the devastating fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery in June, worried more disasters are waiting to happen in an industry reliant on old equipment. Last year, U.S. refiners processed nearly 17 million barrels of crude oil every day, the most in the country’s history as it cashes in on a boom in shale oil. But many have decades-old infrastructure, risking outages that could cost the industry billions. The PES refinery is one of nearly 30 in the United States that are more than a century old, while a Reuters review of over 100 operating U.S. refineries that process more than 10,000 barrels of crude oil a day showed they are on average 80 years old. Refineries frequently update their systems and replace old parts, but the PES fire, along with incidents in Washington state and California earlier this decade, stemmed from equipment installed in the 1970s that had been allowed to run to failure, according to U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB) reports. The suspected cause of the PES explosion has raised fears about future incidents because of the leeway given to refiners for inspecting parts, and because some older equipment is exempt from more stringent standards for newly installed parts.

Point Breeze residents protest refinery meeting | KYW — Residents in Point Breeze protested a meeting discussing Sunoco's Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refinery clean up program Thursday evening, saying they've been left out of the process. Dozens of protestors shouting "We have a right to breath" blocked the doors of a meeting held by the city and Sunoco as remediation plans go forward for the refinery. Protestors are demanding a seat at the table. "We believe that everyone has a God given right to breathe clean air. We are angry at Sunoco and the City of Philadelphia because we were not included in the process," said Mark Clincey of Philly Thrive. This comes after an agreement signed when the refinery changed ownership in 2012 deemed Sunoco responsible for historic contamination of the soil and groundwater and PES responsible for any new contamination. Then recently a federal preliminary report revealed thousands of pounds of highly toxic hydrofluoric acid was released into the air after the refinery explosion in June. "There is gross contamination. They really have not sought the input of the community and some of the cleanup levels that I've seen are very high and would commit this community to having a very heavy industrial sight on this location forever," said the University of Pennsylvania's Dr. Merrilyn Howarth, who was at the meeting.

Have Feds Delivered Death Blow to PennEast Pipeline Project? - PennEast Pipeline LLC suffered a potentially huge setback when a federal court yesterday denied the company’s bid to rehear a case involving its attempt to condemn state-owned lands for its 120-mile project. The ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit narrows the options for the company in its five-year quest to build the $1 billion pipeline from Luzerne County, PA, to Mercer County.  The one-paragraph decision by the court rejected a petition for rehearing by PennEast, leaving the company with fewer alternatives: appealing the case to the U.S. Supreme Court or reconfiguring the pipeline’s route to avoid some 40 state-owned properties or lands previously preserved for agriculture, recreation or conservation. In even more unlikely scenarios, the company and industry could push for changes to the Natural Gas Act or ask the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to give private companies the authority to condemn state-owned lands. In its original September decision, the court ruled PennEast lacked legal authority to seize state lands. “I think this kills the project,’’ said William Potter, a lawyer who works on energy issues. “The Supreme Court will never get into this natural gas-thicket.’’ PennEast said it is “evaluating all of its options in light of this recent development,’’ according to Pat Kornick, a spokeswoman for the company. “The PennEast member companies remain committed to the project,’’ she said.

PennEast companies remain committed to PA-NJ pipe after loss in court (Reuters) - The companies developing the $1 billion PennEast natural gas pipeline said on Wednesday they remain committed to building the project and are evaluating options after a federal appeals court decided not to rehear an earlier decision against the pipeline:

• * The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit on Tuesday denied PennEast’s petition for rehearing of an earlier decision in September that rejected the pipeline’s use of eminent domain on properties in New Jersey under state ownership or in which the state has an interest.
• * PennEast obtained approval from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to build the pipeline in January 2018 and promptly sued in federal court to use the federal government’s eminent domain power to gain access to properties along the route in New Jersey under the U.S. Natural Gas Act.
• * New Jersey opposes construction of the pipeline and did not consent to PennEast’s condemnation suits on properties it controls.
• * PennEast needs the land to build its 120-mile (190-km) pipeline, which is designed to deliver 1.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas from the Marcellus shale formation in Pennsylvania to customers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
• * In October, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) denied PennEast’s application for several permits, citing the Third Circuit’s eminent domain decision.
• * “We believe both actions (Third Circuit and NJDEP) were profoundly wrong based on established legal precedent under the Natural Gas Act and we are currently pursuing legal and other options,” South Jersey Industries Inc (SJI), one of the companies developing PennEast, said in its earnings release on Wednesday.
• * SJI noted demand for gas infrastructure to meet growing demand for the fuel in New Jersey has grown substantially since the project was announced five years ago.
• * In the past, PennEast said it anticipates starting construction in 2020.

ConEdison, a Mountain Valley Pipeline co-owner, puts cap on its investment - Con Edison, the large New York-based utility company, is scaling back its investment in the troubled Mountain Valley Pipeline. Con Edison revealed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing Monday that its subsidiary CET Gas will cap its investment in MVP, the 300-mile pipeline that has been mired in legal cases on the state and federal level, to $530 million. Con Edison has already spent about $488 million. CET Gas has a 12.5 percent interest in MVP, which is also owned by EQM Midstream Partners, which is a related company of Pittsburgh-based Equitrans Midstream Corp. (NYSE: ETRN). Con Edison said in the filing that limiting investment is part of the joint venture agreement, although it's not clear if any other of the companies in the joint venture agreement have also done so. That will likely whittle Con Edison's MVP stake to 10 percent, according to the filing. The pipeline is owned by EQM Midstream Partners, NextEra Capital Holdings, Con Edison Transmission, WGL Midstream and RGC Midstream LLC. Meanwhile, EQM said in an earnings report Tuesday that it would put $86 million toward the MVP's construction, for a total of $2.7 billion. It has already spent $1.7 billion. EQM will see its ownership stake go from 45.5 percent to 47 percent, according to the news release. Mountain Valley Pipeline has had a mountain of challenges to overcome since being announced in 2014 to connect the gas fields of the Marcellus Shale in a 303-mile route through West Virginia and Virginia. Not only were there changes to the route before construction started, but heavy rains caused problems as have legal challenges by residents, environmental groups, regulators in Virginia, West Virginia and the federal government. MVP, whose completion date has been pushed back many times, now is expected to be in service in late 2020. It will cost between $5.3 billion and $5.5 billion to build. The construction is about 90 percent complete, according to a statement of the company in October.

ACP officials 'optimistic' natural gas pipeline construction could be back on track in summer 2020– The Upshur County Commission received an update on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline construction at its meeting Thursday.The Atlantic Coast Pipeline is a project involving the building of a 42-inch-wide natural gas pipeline that’s charted to run approximately 600 miles through West Virginia, Virginia and eastern North Carolina.Construction on the pipeline has been on hold since Dominion Energy, the primary owner and operator of the pipeline, voluntarily suspended construction on the project in mid-December 2018 following a series of court rulings issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. The ruling invalidating several permits necessary to continue building the line, according to a previous story. “We received a permit called a taking permit [through the USFWS], which is done through a biological study and an incidental take study,” Harshbarger said. “It was challenged, so it was taken up to the Fourth Circuit, and they vacated our permit.”He said the court determined the U.S. Fish and Wildlife did not conduct enough studies and did not investigate enough because they ran into the Rusty Patched Bumblebee, which is classified as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act. “The U.S. Court Fourth Circuit vacated our permit, so this whole summer and over the year we’ve been working with contractors doing additional studies to identify the population of the Rusty Patched Bumblebee and other species that were brought up in this court case,” Harshbarger said. “We have our new permits back in front of U.S. Fish and Wildlife, so we’re very optimistic that by the end of this year, we’ll have a decision and new permits issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife.” The second matter Harshbarger brought up was the Appalachian Trail. “The U.S. Forest Service [initially] issued a permit for us to cross the Appalachian Trail with the pipeline,” Harshbarger said. “This was going to be done through a bore, which was about 650 feet below the trail. We’re not disturbing the trail at all.” He said there are approximately 62 pipelines that run beneath the Appalachian Trail currently.

Pipeline interview transcripts released ahead of Friday hearing :: WRAL.com — The state Department of Environmental Quality released interview transcripts and written statements Monday from regulators who said the governor didn't interfere with the department's Atlantic Coast Pipeline approval.The releases came ahead of a joint legislative subcommittee meeting Friday, when Republican lawmakers plan to question officials from Gov. Roy Cooper's administration about the approval process and its connection to parallel negotiations on a $57.8 million mitigation fund that the governor would have controlled. Several DEQ officials, questioned by private investigators legislative Republicans brought in to explore the issue, said they didn't know about the fund until they read about it in the media. They also said they didn't feel pressure to deviate from regular permitting processes."Was it ever relayed down to you that there was – the governor was involved in the permitting process?" an investigator asked Jay Zimmerman, who was the director of the Division of Water Resources at DEQ during much of the permitting process."No, that was not," Zimmerman replied, according to an interview transcript posted by DEQ. "Did anyone at any time above you, either Sheila Holman or anyone above, give you direction as to make additional information requests that you didn't agree with?" the interviewer asked. "No," Zimmerman replied. Initially, the administration wouldn't let employees speak to the investigators outside of public hearings. That changed at least a month ago and after Cooper signed a new whistleblower protection bill into law, according to Pat Ryan, spokesman for Senate President Pro Tem.Phil Berger

NAACP members, others protest Dominion Energy's involvement in state conference - “NAACP, we find ourselves in a mess right now.”Those words, delivered last Saturday by the Rev. Nelson B. Rivers III, vice president of religious affairs and external relations with the National Action Network, were referring to the climate of bigotry, hate and fear in the world at large. But they easily could have applied to the internal and external troubles the civil rights organization has faced during the past year.Addressing a luncheon audience of about 200 people at the Virginia State Conference NAACP’s 84th State Convention, Rev. Rivers was adamant that the NAACP would stand strong in the face of threats from “fake racists with orange hair,” saying that the challenges ahead “ain’t nothing new” for the storied organization.But while hateful politicians may be old hat for the NAACP, the turmoil that’s recently surrounded the Virginia NAACP is a new phenomenon.On the eve of the state convention, protesters called out the organization for bringing on Dominion Energy as an event sponsor and co-host of a reception and panel discussion on 400 years of African-American history.Standing between the gates of Virginia Union University and the state NAACP headquarters on West Graham Road in North Side, 18 protesters demanded the organization either cancel the history program or remove Dominion Energy as co-sponsor.Their protest was timed as members of the state NAACP Executive Committee arrived Oct. 31 in Richmond for a pre-conference meeting.Among those protesting were members of the Virginia Pipeline Resisters, the Virginia Environmental Justice Collaborative and five NAACP members, three of whom are life members of the civil rights organization.The source of their anger: Dominion Energy is continuing its plans for a natural gas compressor that could potentially pollute the historic black community of Union Hill in Buckingham County. The community was founded after the end of the Civil War by emancipated African-Americans.The compressor is a key part of the construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline that will run through Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia.While the state NAACP is one of several organizations challenging Dominion Energy’s plan in a federal lawsuit, the announcement of Dominion Energy’s involvement in the convention struck a sour note, made worse by the company’s $50,000 donation to the convention, twice the amount the company has donated in previous years.

National Grid, Eversource Say They Can Meet Natural Gas Demand Without Weymouth Compressor Two utility companies involved with the proposed natural gas compressor station in Weymouth say they don't need the facility to meet customer demand. Now, opponents of the compressor station are calling into question whether the project — which has been the subject of public protests and lawsuits — meets the "public convenience and necessity" requirement for federal approval. The proposed 7,700-horsepower Weymouth compressor would be part of energy giant Enbridge’s Atlantic Bridge Project, which was designed to deliver natural gas to New England and Canada. Energy companies build compressor stations along interstate pipeline routes to “boost” pressure and keep the gas flowing. While Enbridge will own the pipeline and infrastructure, utility companies bid for contracts that allow them to ship gas through it. In September, one of those contract holders, New Brunswick-based New England NG Supply Limited, announced that it is withdrawing from the project. Shortly after, National Grid applied to take over the contract, and in testimony before the state on Oct. 25, said it could deliver this gas to customers "without the installation of the Weymouth compressor station." "The implication is that they would be shipping the gas within their service territory in the greater Boston area as opposed to sending it up and out of the country," said Kathryn Eiseman, president and CEO of the Pipe Line Awareness Network for the Northeast, Inc., an advocacy group based in Cummington, Massachusetts.

Shifting Demand Fuels Weymouth Compressor Debate - The energy company Enbridge has a plan, and it's called the Atlantic Bridge Project. Approved by federal regulators in 2017, the $452 million project would pipe more natural gas north from New Jersey into New England and Canada. To make the project work, Enbridge says it needs to build a 7,700-horsepower compressor station in Weymouth to push gas up the pipeline to customers farther north. But two of the customers that signed on to the Atlantic Bridge Project — New Brunswick-based New England NG Supply Limited (NENG) and Exelon Corporation — have backed away from their contracts with Enbridge and agreed to sell at least part of their capacity to National Grid.  And National Grid — along with Eversource and Norwich Public Utilities in Connecticut — says it does not need the proposed Weymouth compressor to meet customer demand for gas. That leaves three out-of-state utilities that still need the compressor station to push gas northward: Maine Natural Gas, New Hampshire-based Unitil and Summit Natural Gas of Maine, which plans to acquire the remaining capacity on Exelon's contract, according to federal documents. Two other utilities — Canada-based Heritage and Irving Oil-- did not respond to requests for comment. This shift in demand for contracts has left Enbridge with fewer northern customers for its Atlantic Bridge Project. And opponents of the project are questioning again why Enbridge is pushing forward with plans for the Weymouth compressor station. "Federal regulators are supposed to gauge whether projects will fill a public need when approving energy facilities," said Sen. Ed Markey, a longtime opponent of the compressor station. "It’s clear that the Weymouth compressor is unneeded, unwanted and unwelcome in Massachusetts, and should be rejected.”

Enbridge vows to cover costs in ‘unlikely’ case of Michigan Line 5 rupture - Enbridge is disputing Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s suggestion that state taxpayers “could be left holding the bag” for cleanup costs if the Candadian-based company’s twin Line 5 oil and gas pipelines were to rupture in the Straits of Mackinac. “The bottom line is Enbridge will take full responsibility and pay for all costs related to an incident,” Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy told Bridge Magazine in an email late Monday, calling the prospects of a rupture on the controversial pipeline “unlikely.” The vow came days after Nessel released a 120-page report raising questions about Enbridge’s financial obligations under a series of agreements its U.S.-based companies signed with then-Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration in 2018. The agreements aimed to pave the way for Enbridge to build a $500-million bedrock tunnel around a new section of Line 5 in the Straits — a project that Nessel and fellow Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer have tried to halt. In one such agreement, certain U.S.-based Enbridge companies agreed to fund nearly $1.9 billion in potential damages if Line 5 ruptured.The state commissioned Wisconsin-based American Risk Management Resources to probe that financial assurance. (The state paid $30,000 for that work, Nessel’s office told Bridge.)The report concluded that Canadian conglomerate Enbridge Inc. had enough money to pay for such a pricey cleanup and restoration. But the report pointed out that Enbridge Inc. didn’t technically sign the agreement with the state — only its U.S. subsidiaries did. And those U.S. companies “would not have enough resources to fund a loss event of this magnitude” — unless their Canadian parent company voluntarily bailed out the companies, the report said.

Pipeline Spill Cleanup Plans Deserve a Hard Look -If you had to pick the worst possible environmental disaster that could befall the Great Lakes, a major oil pipeline spill would have to be near the top of the list. And if a spill does happen to our inland waters, it’s absolutely critical that we get the cleanup response right.  Without complete information and a solid response blueprint upfront, a cleanup effort may end up being inadequate to deal with the mess, or even sometimes making matters worse.With stakes that high, NRDC finds the notion of rubber stamp approvals of pipeline spill cleanup plans unacceptable. Fortunately, a federal court in Michigan recently agreed, in a case brought by the National Wildlife Federation (represented by the University of Michigan Law School environmental clinic) against the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) concerning the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline. PHMSA is required under the Clean Water Act to review and approve a pipeline operator’s spill contingency plan, but the agency took the position that it has no real discretion in the approval process—and hence that it didn’t need to review the environmental impacts of the plan under two key federal environmental review statutes, the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The court held that PHMSA does indeed have discretion, and that the reviews must be done.  The case is now on appeal to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, where NRDC recently submitted an amicus curiae brief supporting the Michigan court’s decision. NRDC brought to bear its decades of work on oil pipeline issues as well as ESA and NEPA—most recently on display in our challenges to the Keystone XL pipeline—to explain the real-world importance of environmental review of spill plans.

Environment and tribal groups call for new hazardous weather standards for Enbridge's Line 5 - Fourteen civic, environmental and tribal groups have urged Governor Gretchen Whitmer to take immediate new steps to protect the Great Lakes in case of a possible wintertime rupture of Enbridge's Line 5, the pipeline that runs under the Straits of Mackinac. In an October 25 letter, the groups asked Whitmer to tighten standards that would trigger a shutdown of Line 5 during rough seas and ice.They want Whitmer to get Enbridge's promise to stop transporting oil through Line 5 if waves exceed 3.3 feet and winds are more than 18 mph. "These are the conditions cited by the Coast Guard which render oil spill response particularly dangerous and ineffective," said Sean McBrearty, campaign coordinator for Oil and Water Don't Mix."This fall we have already seen waves in the Great Lakes reach 14 feet and more on several occasions," said McBrearty. "The U.S. Coastguard's top official has told Congress the agency is not ready for a major oil spill incident in the Great Lakes and officials have said the Coast Guard won't even venture out to address an oil spill when waves are above three feet. Once ice conditions take over in the Straits, oil spill response becomes even more hazardous and unpredictable."The groups' letter further calls on Whitmer to use her emergency public safety powers  to order a shut down of Line 5 if Enbridge fails to comply with the new, tightened hazardous weather standards the groups are advocating. Mike Shriberg, Great Lakes Regional Director of the National Wildlife Federation, served on the Michigan Pipeline Safety Advisory Board."The Pipeline Safety Advisory Board, a majority of those voting, voted in favor actually of putting these standards into place," Shriberg said. "Governor Snyder ignored that."Shriberg said Whitmer now has "an opportunity to turn that around." A spokesperson for Whitmer said the Governor's office is reviewing the letter.

We Energies, Wisconsin Gas plan $370 million natural gas storage sites -We Energies and Wisconsin Gas are seeking approval to build two plants to store liquefied natural gas that could be used to meet spikes in demand on cold winter days. The two plants — projected to cost a total of $370 million — would store natural gas at temperatures of 260 degrees below zero. The plants are needed to meet the projected demand for natural gas during winter months, the two utilities said in their filing with the Public Service Commission. “This will help smooth out the peak that we are projecting long-term,” said Brendan Conway, a We Energies spokesman. Liquefied natural gas has about 1/600th of the volume of natural gas burned in a home. Each plant would have the capacity to store 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The proposed projects were first reported by BizTimes. We Energies and Wisconsin Gas, both part of WEC Energy Group, rely on interstate pipelines and firm contracts to provide natural gas in southeastern Wisconsin. Building the liquefied natural gas plants to meet peak demand would be less costly than contracting with interstate pipelines to add additional capacity, the utilities said in their PSC filing. We Energies and Wisconsin Gas would have to contract for the additional pipeline capacity year-round to deliver natural gas needed only a few days a year. With the plants, the utilities also would be able to buy and store natural gas when prices are lower than in the winter months.

Florida fracking ban could run into roadblocks -- A proposal backed by environmentalists to ban fracking in Florida eased through a Senate committee Monday. But the effort to impose a ban on the controversial oil- and gas-drilling process may be in trouble already, with the start of the 2020 legislative session still more than two months away. The proposal (SB 200), approved unanimously by the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee, would ban hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as fracking. But it also would ban a process known as matrix acidization, which uses many of the same chemicals as in hydraulic fracturing but dissolves rocks with acid instead of fracturing them with pressurized liquid. Environmentalists argue that a ban on matrix acidization is necessary, but Republican lawmakers have balked at the idea. A separate proposal to ban fracking without addressing matrix acidization may not even return in the Senate for the 2020 session, which begins Jan. 14. Such a proposal went further during the 2019 session than a bill that also addressed matrix acidization, but neither passed. Senate Agriculture Chairman Ben Albritton, R-Wauchula, said he hasn’t seen enough change to warrant refiling the bill that would only address hydraulic fracturing. “I don’t sense there’s traction enough to move the ball. We still have the same members. We still have the same process.”

Environmental Justice Activists Arrested Amid Growing Concerns Over Louisiana’s Cancer Alley Pollution - Mounting concerns over pollution, public health and the expansion of the petrochemical industry came to a head when two activists were detained in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Oct. 30, the last day of a two-week protest against environmental racism in Louisiana's Cancer Alley. Pastor Gregory Manning, who is legally blind, and Sakura Kone were singled out by police for refusing to leave the hallway outside of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry (LABI) office where about 40 activists continued with an impromptu rally after being asked to leave. The group had hoped to confront LABI's head over the association's influence in state politics and regulations.Kone was given a citation and released outside, while Manning was taken to jail. According to a release from Manning's group Justice and Beyond, Pastor Manning, who is being charged with a felony count of inciting a riot and Kone will be arraigned on Nov. 5 in Baton Rouge City Court.The police officers' actions infuriated members of the Coalition Against Death Alley (CADA), a group of Louisiana residents and members of various local and state organizations behind the protest. The coalition focuses on fighting against and bringing attention to the petrochemical industry's expansion that is underway in Louisiana.  Louisiana's Cancer Alley, also known as the "Petrochemical Corridor," is an 80-mile stretch along the Mississippi River with over 100 petrochemical plants and refineries between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. The Louisiana government is welcoming an increasing number of industrial facilities to this corridor in primarily African-American communities.

As LNG booms, some fear bubble -   - For years, LNG developers have sold investors on multi-billion dollar export projects based on the premise of the world’s insatiable appetite for natural gas.But three years after Cheniere Energy made history by exporting the first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the continental United States, energy insiders are debating whether an LNG bubble is developing around the vast sweep of projects scheduled to come online over the next 10 years. From Russia to Qatar, Mozambique to Canada, the oil and gas industry has enough projects in the works to almost double global LNG production by 2030, with much of that growth focused along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. As analysts crunch the numbers, some do not believe the demand is there to support them all.“There’s a fairly significant divide about the degree people might be overbuilding,” said Jason Feer, the Houston-based global head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners, a shipping advisory firm. “My take is some people are wildly optimistic about demand. We found this wide range of forecasts, some of them physically impossible.”Forecasts of LNG’s meteoric rise largely hinge on expectations of rising demand in China, India and developing nations in Southeast Asia, all of which have limited domestic supplies of natural gas. But governments there have been slow to shift from cheap coal — which they have in abundance — to undertake the vast pipeline, storage and terminal buildouts necessary to shift their economies toward gas. Already,there are signs that Asia’s appetite for LNG might not be as reliable as developers would hope. Global LNG imports this summer were up 11 percent from last year, but almost two thirds of that additional gas went into storage in Europe and not Asian markets, said Mike Fulwood, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in the United Kingdom.  That has resulted in storage tanks in Germany and the Netherlands at near capacity - typically they would be at 80 percent at this point in the year - pushing prices there to around $3.30 per million British thermal units, or MMBTUs, well below the point at which it its profitable to import U.S. LNG. At the same time Russia is building new pipelines into Europe and is looking to expand its LNG facility near the Arctic Circle.  “All this surge into LNG into Europe is not because Europe wants or needs LNG. It’s because it has nowhere else to go,” Fulwood said. “The problem is if we get this perfect storm of events, like a mild winter, Russia keeps pumping out pipeline gas and China’s growth is a bit weak. In that scenario, you have LNG pushing a supply gap that no longer exists and then prices crash.”

Keystone pipeline shutdown raises costs for U.S. Gulf refiners - The Keystone crude pipeline was shut last Wednesday after leaking thousands of barrels of crude in North Dakota, the third spill along the pipeline’s route in less than three years.TC Energy Corp.’s 590,000 barrel-a-day pipeline that carries crude from Alberta to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast ruptured October 29 near the city of Edinburg in North Dakota, said Brent Nelson, an emergency manager for Walsh County. About 9,120 barrels were released, some of which impacted a wetland, according to the state’s Department of Environmental Quality. TC Energy declared force majeure on the pipeline system after the shutdown, according to people familiar with the matter. An emergency response team has contained the impacted area, and the system is shut from Hardisty, Alberta to Cushing, Oklahoma and to Wood River/Patoka, Illinois, the company said in a statement. TC Energy also reduced rates on the Marketlink pipeline, an extension of Keystone that runs from Cushing to Port Arthur, Texas, according to people familiar with the matter.The shutdown stands to affect U.S. Gulf Coast refiners seeking alternative heavy crude supplies amid sanctions on Venezuela, lagging output from Mexico and OPEC production cuts. At the same time, Alberta’s oil producers are struggling to cope with production limits imposed earlier this year when too much oil encountered too few pipelines, causing prices to collapse.Heavy Western Canadian Select crude’s discount to West Texas Intermediate futures widened $19 a barrel Thursday, the widest since December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. After the Keystone spill in South Dakota in 2017, the discount widened from about $11 a barrel to more than $25 a barrel. In the Gulf Coast, heavy Canadian crude was about $1.50 a barrel stronger than before the spill, according to market participants.

1,500 gallons of oil spills in La Quinta Ship Channel — The Coast Guard is working with the Texas General Land Office to clean up an oil spill in the La Quinta Ship Channel near the Port of Corpus Christi.According to the Coast Guard, 1,500 gallons of hydraulic oil from a dredge vessel spilled into the ship channel Wednesday.Crews with the Coast Guard and GLO were deployed Thursday morning with special equipment to help clean some of the oil out of the bay. A ruptured hose on the vessel caused the oil spill.

Seaway Eyes Pipeline Expansion -- Seaway Crude Pipeline Co. LLC may add 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude capacity on its oil pipeline extending from Cushing, Okla., to the Texas Gulf Coast, the 50/50 joint venture owned by Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Enbridge Inc. reported Wednesday. The JV stated that it plans to hold an open season to gauge shipper support for another Seaway expansion, which would include other enhancements to segregate heavy and light crude shipments. Seaway noted that it will publicize the open season time frame and other details at a later date. The proposed expansion would be the latest in a series of Seaway growth projects over the past decade, according to the JV’s website. In 2012, Enterprise and Enbridge reversed the pipeline’s flow from northbound to southbound and increased capacity the following year. Also, a project to build a parallel pipeline – boosting capacity to 850,000 bpd – concluded in 2014. The 500-mile (805-kilometer), 30-inch-diameter pipeline system extends from Cushing to Freeport, Texas, and includes a Texas City, Texas-based terminal and distribution system that serves Greater Houston refineries and extends to the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, the Seaway website states. “The cost-efficient expansion would debottleneck and optimize the system principally through pump upgrades,” Seaway stated Wednesday. “Initial expansion capacity could be available by mid-2020, with the expansion fully in-service in 2022.” Seaway, which is targeting $1.25 per barrel for light crude oil pipeline transportation from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, added the open season will determine the final capacity for committed and uncommitted service. The company also noted that further expansion is possible based on customer demand.

Plains All American expects Wink-to-Webster crude pipe construction to begin by year-end - (Reuters) - Plains All American Pipeline LP said on Tuesday it expects to begin construction on the Wink-to-Webster Permian crude pipeline by the end of the year and is targeting bringing the line to service by early 2021. Plains has already ordered a majority of equipment needed to commence construction such as 36-inch (91.5-cm) domestic line-pipe and long-lead materials, a company executive said during the quarterly earnings call. The Wink-to-Webster Pipeline is a joint venture among affiliates of Exxon Mobil Corp , Plains All American, MPLX LP, and Delek US, among others. The pipeline system is expected to transport more than 1 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day from the Permian Basin in West Texas, the biggest U.S. oil basin, to the Texas Gulf Coast. For the full year 2020, Plains said it expects Permian production to grow, on average, about 500,000 bpd - about 100,000 bpd on average less than the company’s prior estimates. “We have further calibrated the anticipated impact of producer capital discipline on drilling and completion activity,”

Kinder Morgan's deal to buy Southcross pipeline network OK'd by bankruptcy court - A subsidiary of Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc.  has purchased a pipeline network owned by Dallas-based Southcross Energy Partners LP.The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware approved the sale on Oct. 22, according to a Nov. 6 press release from Southcross.Kinder Morgan Tejas Pipeline LLC bought Southcross Energy's natural gas pipeline network in Corpus Christi, Texas, for $76 million. That deal includes the Corpus Christi Pipeline Network and Bay City Lateral, per Kinder Morgan's press release.Separately, Magnolia Infrastructure Holdings, a portfolio company of Boston-based ArcLight Capital Partners, will acquire pipelines and related assets that Southcross Energy owns in Mississippi and Alabama for $31.5 million. That deal should close before the end of the year.In August, Kinder Morgan was designated as the stalking horse bidder for the Corpus Christi Pipeline Network and Bay City Lateral. In September, a Kinder Morgan spokesman told the Houston Business Journal that the company thinks the assets will fit nicely into its existing Texas infrastructure. A Kinder Morgan joint venture project — the $1.75 billion Gulf Coast Express pipeline — was put into service ahead of schedule in late September. That line will move natural gas out of the Permian Basin to a terminus near Corpus Christi.“We continue to focus on opportunities to increase our natural gas connectivity to meet (liquefied natural gas) facilities, Gulf Coast power, industrial and petrochemical demand,” Kinder Morgan Natural Gas Midstream President Sital Mody said in the company's Nov. 6 release. “These (Southcross) assets are a nice complement to our existing Texas portfolio of assets and allow for further connectivity on our Texas Intrastate system.”

The Long Battle to Stop the Kinder Morgan Pipeline - For months, locals and landowners have tried to stop the Permian Highway Pipeline, a piece of infrastructure connecting West Texas’ prolific oil fields to the state’s Gulf Coast refineries. But they’re running out of options. In 1975, Terese Hershey, one of the state’s most influential conservationists, purchased a 1,561-acre tract of land in Stonewall, Texas. For years, she protected the property from the encroachment of nearby development. Sheturned to Andrew Sansom, a former Texas Parks and Wildlife director, to manage the land with his wife, Nona. In the past eight years, the Sansoms have cleared more than 1,020 acres of cedar and invasive grasses off the property. They’ve controlled erosion along streams and managed the land’s precious water resources. They’ve also restored the property’s historic 162-year-old stone ranch house, which was left with only its limestone walls standing after a 2003 fire. All of this effort has made the Hershey Ranch the largest piece of protected land in Gillespie County. Now, it’s under threat. Kinder Morgan, a multi-billion dollar energy company, intends to build a 430-mile-long, 42-inch-wide pipeline—also called the Permian Highway Pipeline Project—to connect the world’s most productive oil field in West Texas’ Permian Basin to refineries near the Gulf Coast. The pipeline’s proposed path would cut through a 14-acre section of the Hershey Ranch and create a 50-foot permanent easement across about eight-and-a-half acres. It could also impact the area’s water resources. The ranch sits atop karst, a kind of topography characterized by underground cavities, fractures, and drainage systems. This particular karstic area feeds into the Hill Country’s springs, which in turn, discharge into creeks, which then flow into the Trinity and Edwards aquifers, which supply drinking water to more than 2 million people throughout Central Texas.The couple fi earned the company’s power of eminent domain supersedes the work the Hershey family did to retire the land from development. The law allows Kinder Morgan to condemn land it needs by checking a box claiming “common carrier” status on a form. By self-designating its pipeline as a common carrier—meaning the company will carry other companies’ product at set rates—Kinder Morgan gains the power to seize private land through eminent domain as a “public utility.” The Texas Supreme Court found in the 2011 case Texas Rice Land Partners v. Denbury Green Pipeline that the Texas Railroad Commission, the state’s oil and gas regulator, doesn’t even have to verify whether a company’s common carrier claim is true.

Trump Interior nominee fast-tracked a ‘deficient’ drilling permit  -  In March 2017, a politically connected oil firm called Cimarex Energy Co. was in a hurry to begin fracking on a flat expanse of farmland in the western Oklahoma oil patch. But the company’s application for a federal drilling permit had been rejected as “incomplete” and “deficient,” records show. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management had flagged both engineering and environmental issues. The company faced a 60-day wait while a revised application was being reviewed. Cimarex didn’t want to wait. Instead, the company called its lobbyists. In the days that followed, political appointees at the highest levels of the U.S. Department of the Interior went to extraordinary lengths to fast-track Cimarex’s drilling permit, according to a trove of emails reviewed by Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting. Among the officials moving to expedite the permit: Katharine MacGregor, then an up-and-coming aide to then-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. President Donald Trump recently nominated her to the powerful No. 2 post at the Interior Department, an agency that supervises hundreds of millions of acres of national parks and public lands, including their use for energy production. Her confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday. From her years as a Republican staffer to the House Natural Resources Committee’s Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, MacGregor already was well known as a friend of the energy industry: In recorded remarks at a June 2017 meeting, the association’s political director quipped that once MacGregor joined the Department of the Interior in January, “We’ll call Kate” became the association’s default solution to regulatory roadblocks. In this case, MacGregor delivered, taking Cimarex’s problem to the top, bypassing layers of civil service expertise to approach Michael Nedd, then acting head of the 10,000-employee Bureau of Land Management – the Interior Department agency in charge of energy development on federal land. Six other high-level department officials also were looped in. The next day, Nedd reported that an “expedited review” of Cimarex’s permit was underway. Sixteen days after Cimarex complained to the petroleum association, it had its permit.

Rystad Energy: Permian gas flaring reaches another high | Oil & Gas Journal - Flaring and venting of natural gas in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico reached an all-time high in this year’s third quarter, averaging more than 750 MMcfd, according to a preliminary analysis conducted by Rystad Energy. “This represents a new all-time high. Oil production in the Permian basin is growing at an accelerated pace again, and we observe high, sustained levels of flaring and venting of associated gas in the basin,” says Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.Rystad Energy has been closely monitoring the level of natural gas flaring in the Permian since 2017. Their previous quarterly estimate suggested that basin-wide gas flaring averaged between 600 and 650 MMcfd during the 9-month period from the fourth quarter of 2018 through the second quarter of 2019.The Permian basin has experienced a vast increase in natural gas flaring and venting at the wellhead in the recent years, driven by a combination of higher activity levels, more production from areas with less developed gas gathering infrastructure, and basin-wide takeaway capacity bottlenecks.“The most recent increase in flaring is predominantly driven by the Delaware Texas portion of the basin, which accounted for more than 40% of basin-wide flaring and venting as of the third quarter of 2019,” Abramov said. “Northern Midland also saw a significant boost in new activity, which resulted in increased flaring of associated gas. The subbasin has basically returned to the record level of flaring seen in the fourth quarter of 2018.”At a company level, Rystad Energy notes that several operators have reduced their fl aring intensity over the past 12 months. “A significant number of operators have exhibited a clear downwards shift in flaring intensity in 2019. Yet there are other examples of a recent increase in flaring intensity, which are primarily represented by some operators active in the Eastern Midland basin,” Abramov observed.

Pioneer Natural CEO calls out shale industry for Permian Basin gas flaring - (Reuters) - The chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N), Scott Sheffield, on Tuesday called on producers in the top U.S. shale field to limit natural gas flaring and monitor for methane leaks. Companies are targeting oil in the fast-growing Permian Basin field, but pipeline construction has lagged, leaving natural gas as a byproduct to be burned or vented. Producers should get flaring and venting rates to 2% or less and not drill wells before pipelines are complete, Sheffield said during a call with analysts a day after releasing quarterly results. “We do not connect any new horizontal wells to production unless the gas line is already in place,” Sheffield said. “I think that’s something that should be adopted by all producers in the Permian Basin.” His comments come as several oil and gas companies have pledged to limit leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and to reducing flaring and venting. Gas flaring and venting in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico reached a new high of 750 million cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in the third quarter, according to estimates released on Tuesday by Rystad Energy, up from 600 to 650 mmscfd during the previous nine months. The upswing is being driven by more drilling and fracking, pipeline bottlenecks and new production in areas that lack gathering lines and processing plants. Pioneer’s flaring rate is around 1%, the second lowest in the basin behind Chevron Corp (CVX.N), according to an investor presentation with Rystad Energy data. The average for its peer group was a 5% flaring rate. BP Plc (BP.L), which took over BHP Petroleum’s assets in the Permian in March and has a relatively small amount of production in the field, had a flaring and venting rate around 14%.

Associated gas contributes to growth in U.S. natural gas production – EIA -- A growing share of U.S. natural gas production is associated-dissolved natural gas (natural gas produced from oil wells), which is the result of increased crude oil production from low permeability, tight rock formations—Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Anadarko. In 2018, associated-dissolved natural gas production in these five major crude oil-producing regions was 12.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or about 37% of total natural gas production in these regions and about 12% of total U.S. natural gas production.Associated-dissolved natural gas, also referred to as associated gas, is natural gas produced by oil wells. By contrast, non-associated gas is natural gas produced by natural gas wells. Some states define an oil well versus a natural gas well differently based on different gas-oil ratios (GOR). The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses a gas-oil ratio of 6,000 cubic feet (cf) of natural gas to 1 barrel (b) of oil (cf/b) for each year’s total well production to determine whether a well is an oil well or natural gas well. If the GOR for a year of production is equal to or less than 6,000 cf/b, then the well is defined as an oil well, and any natural gas produced from this well is called associated gas. In addition, the various state pressure bases used to measure natural gas volumes have been converted to the federal pressure base of 14.73 pounds per square inch absolute (psia) and 60 degrees Fahrenheit.Associated gas contains natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) such as ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline. Associated gas is sometimes characterized as wet gas because it must be treated at natural gas processing plants to remove impurities and liquids before it can be marketed as natural gas. The increase in associated gas has led to record volumes of U.S. NGPL production. NGPLs are used as feedstocks to produce plastics, fibers, and other products.The Permian region, which spans parts of western Texas and eastern New Mexico, has the most associated gas production of the five crude oil-producing regions.  

November Arrives For Natural Gas - 2 Weeks Left Before Stocks Begin To Decline - The natural gas market is now coming to the end of the 2019 injection season. Over the coming weeks, the weather conditions across the United States will change, winter will arrive, and the demand for heating will rise.   Last year, the price exploded to the highest level since 2014 during November, when it rose to a peak at $4.929 per MMBtu. This year, as we are now at the start of the winter season, the price is at a low level.  Early November is always a time of the year when uncertainty peaks in the natural gas futures arena. November futures have already rolled to December, and the primary driver of the price of the energy commodity will be if temperatures are above or below average levels over the coming weeks and months. Uncertainty in markets tends to lead to a higher degree of price variance. In early August, when the winter season was months away, rising stockpiles and record production took the price of nearby natural gas futures on NYMEX to the lowest level since 2016. The price of the energy commodity hit a low at $2.029 per MMBtu.As the weekly chart highlights, the price came close to the $2 per MMBtu level, but rejected the early August low and rose to a high at $2.71 in mid-September. It was too early for a significant rally in mid-September, so the price fell to what turned out to be a higher low at $2.187 per MMBtu in early October. Last week, in a sign that the prospects that the cold winds of winter would soon descend on the US, the price rose to a slightly higher high at $2.738, and was trading at around $2.70 as of Friday, November 1. Price momentum and relative strength indicators were just above neutral territory as the market prepares to enter the winter months. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the natural gas futures market on NYMEX was at 1.193 million contracts at the end of last week.

Hints Of Weaker Cold Push Natural Gas Prices Lower Today - Current weather forecasts are about as cold as you will ever see them at this time of the year, with lots of "blue" and even some "purple" showing up in our forecast maps from this morning.   With that being the case, it is no wonder natural gas prices have been pushed much higher over the last couple of weeks, but for the first day in awhile, we saw hints that the level of cold in current forecasts could be reduced somewhat, hinted at by both today's GEFS and ECMWF ensemble (EPS).  Both models show the potential to return to a "near normal" demand pattern in a couple of weeks, and natural gas prices took notice, selling off and closing with a red candle today, something that has been rare recently.  At the end of the model runs, there is a tendency toward more of an upper level trough progressing toward the Gulf of Alaska, which typically correlates with milder trends in the U.S. The issue, however, is that we have seen models tease such a change a few times over the last week or two, only to fail, as forecasts progress colder. This definitely will promote some skepticism when it comes to any material shift in the pattern, for good reason. Is this time likely to be just another "head fake", or are they tangible reasons to believe a change is in the works?

US natural gas in underground storage increases by 34 Bcf: EIA -- — US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rose 34 Bcf last week, increasing by less than the five-year average for the first time in more than three months with a chance for a small net injection before the withdrawal season begins. Storage inventories increased to 3.729 Tcf for the week ended November 1, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The injection was less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 39 Bcf addition. Survey responses ranged for an injection of 31 Bcf to 45 Bcf. The build was less than the 63 Bcf injection reported during the corresponding week in 2018 as well as the five-year average addition of 57 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 530 Bcf, or 16.6%, more than the year-ago level of 3.199 Tcf and 29 Bcf, or 0.8%, more than the five-year average of 3.7 Tcf. This week marks the first bullish storage report in 14 weeks, as a colder-than-normal end of injection season resulted in a heating demand spike. The NYMEX December gas futures contract added 3 cents to $2.86/MMBtu following the announcement. The remaining winter strip, December through March, gained 1.9 cents to average $2.83/MMBtu. However, by afternoon trading, they had dropped by 6 cents and 5.5 cents, respectively. Changes in fundamentals for the week ending November 8 have mirrored movements from the week before, with supply holding steady while demand increases on colder temperatures. Total supplies are averaging 96.5 Bcf/d on a 0.5 Bcf/d increase this week, split by slightly higher onshore production and Canadian imports, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. On Wednesday, total US demand broke 100 Bcf/d, driven mainly by the Midwest region as average temperatures fell below freezing. Total demand is forecast to push higher heading into the weekend, which will likely continue to pressure prices as total US production remains at just over 90 Bcf/d. A forecast by Platts Analytics' supply-and-demand model has storage volumes increasing by 9 Bcf for the week ending November 8, which will likely be the final net injection before withdrawal season begins. If so, stocks will peak at 3.746 Tcf, well below the five-year maximum of 4.047 Tcf, which occurred in November 2016.

The U.S. placed near-record volumes of natural gas in storage this injection season --The amount of natural gas held in storage in 2019 went from a relatively low value of 1,155 billion cubic feet (Bcf) at the beginning of April to 3,724 Bcf at the end of October because of near-record injection activity during the natural gas injection, or refill, season (April 1–October 31). Inventories as of October 31 were 37 Bcf higher than the previous five-year end-of-October average, according to interpolated values in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Although the end of the natural gas storage injection season is traditionally defined as October 31, injections often occur in November. Working natural gas stocks ended the previous heating season at 1,155 Bcf on March 31, 2019—the second-lowest level for that time of year since 2004. The 2019 injection season included several weeks with relatively high injections: weekly changes exceeded 100 Bcf nine times in 2019. Certain weeks in April, June, and September were the highest weekly net injections in those months since at least 2010. From April 1 through October 31, 2019, more than 2,569 Bcf of natural gas was placed into storage in the Lower 48 states. This volume was the second-highest net injected volume for the injection season, falling short of the record 2,727 Bcf injected during the 2014 injection season. In 2014, a particularly cold winter left natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 states at 837 Bcf—the lowest level for that time of year since 2003.

After Decades of Fracking, We Finally Know How the Fluid Spreads Underground - Given how profound an effect hydraulic fracturing has had on the U.S. economically in recent years, it can come something of a shock to discover how little we know about it. Blasting water, sand and chemicals into shale rock formations deep underground has unlocked vast hydrocarbon reserves previously considered almost impossible to exploit. It’s also sparked controversy over environmental concerns that have long dogged the industry. Fracking has been blamed for causing earthquakes in Oklahoma and poisoning groundwater in Pennsylvania. New York and Vermont have banned it. Much of the controversy is driven by mystery surrounding the fracking fluid itself. Oil-services giant Schlumberger Ltd. once described fracking as employing “brute force and ignorance.” But for the first time, we have a clear picture of how the fluid used in fracking travels underground. The extraction process begins when a well is drilled vertically about a mile into oil-rich shale rock, then turns and carves horizontally through the shale zone for another mile. The well is encased in metal tubes for protection. A combination of water, sand and chemicals is then pushed down the well at high pressure to fracture the shale at various equidistant points along the wellbore. The thinking went that in a perfect frack, the fluid would be distributed in regular, even increments for each stage of hydraulic fracturing. But data from Deep Imaging, a small oilfield technology company in the suburbs of Houston, seems to confirm what many oilfield engineers have feared but couldn’t prove: a typical frack comes with lots of uncertainty—and bears little resemblance to the ideal. Deep Imaging uses an electromagnetic field to detect the flow of fracking fluid through the Earth’s crust—and their results show a chaotic scene where fluid spreads unpredictably. Areas of rock affected by fracking are both considerably larger and shorter than planned.  When wells are dug in close proximity, fluid that spreads beyond the intended range of the frack could interfere with a neighboring well—leaving both compromised. In this case, fluid from multiple fracks seeped into previously fracked areas, as well as space drilled by a neighboring well.

Cleanup underway after more than 4K gallons of crude oil spill into Oklahoma lake – Cleanup is underway at an Oklahoma creek and lake after an oil spill this week. “We got a call this morning from Godfrey Oil Properties. They called to let us know that they lost about 40 barrels of produced water, and 100 barrels of crude oil,” Sarah Terry-Cobo with the Oklahoma Corporation Commission told KXII on Thursday. According to the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, it resulted in the spill of more than 4,200 gallons of crude oil and over 1,600 gallons of produced water. The oil spilled into a creek that flows into Lake Texoma. The crude oil and a byproduct of oil and gas with a high salt content leaked off a work site and into Elm Creek, according to Terry-Cobo. The oil has been leaking since Wednesday night, said James Vincent, an environmental specialist with the Army Core of Engineers, and says absorbent booms have been placed on Elm Creek to help stop the water. Godfrey Oil Properties hired Ardmore-based contracting firm, Dillon Environmental, to put containment booms on the lake to trap the oil. An official cause of the spill has not yet been ruled.   Click here for more.

States Are More Worried About Pipeline Protesters Than Spills - Last week, the Keystone pipeline sprang a leak. Again. This time, it released 383,040 gallons of oil into the northeastern wetlands of North Dakota. Two years ago, the same pipeline, which spans some 2,600 miles from Canada to Nebraska before splintering off, burst in South Dakota. Initial reports from TransCanada, the company recently renamed TC Energy that owns and operates the Keystone system, posited in 2017 that the spill was roughly 210,000 gallons in size. Then, five months later, the company was forced to admit that, actually, the spill had been twice as large. Both the most recent spill and the 2017 one rank among the top-ten largest onshore spills in the past decade. In the time between the two incidents, the federal and state governments have done little to protect their citizens against such spills. The regular fines for safety violations tend to be in the low six figures—a paltry sum for a company regularly taking in over $7 billion in gross annual profits. Rather than raising the cost of contaminating vast swaths of American lands, the state and federal governments have spent their time re-codifying and weaponizing the legal system against citizens opposing further pipeline construction. The week before Keystone sent its contents seeping into the soil, two South Dakota Republican state leaders quietly walked back a pair of laws they had championed earlier this spring.  The two bills, Senate Bill 189 and Senate Bill 190, came to be known as the riot-boosting bills. The legislation would have permitted law enforcement—be it local, state, or out-of-state forces, as were used at Standing Rock—to charge pipeline protestors with felonies rather than misdemeanors. It also would have allowed the state government to sue any out-of-state groups that contributed to the protests, with the option for a third party like, say, an oil or construction company, to join the lawsuit and recoup any sunk costs. The ACLU promptly sued the state, and the governor and attorney general in mid-October signed a settlement agreeing that state executives could not enforce such laws, but which did not repeal the legislation itself. South Dakota is one of seven states to pass such legislation, which seems to promise to jail any local inhabitants—including, notably, indigenous individuals—who dare protect their land and their water, and scare off anyone who would think to join them. The laws, all seven of them passed since the Standing Rock protests, have represented a joint oil industry and the state government response to those protests—a barrier tosomething like Standing Rock ever developing in their own states.

South Dakota Keystone XL opponents point to N. Dakota spill - Opponents of the Keystone XL pipeline in South Dakota were making their case against a handful of water permits this week in a process so contentious that it is being extended to additional meetings next month. Now, those opponents are pointing to a major spill in North Dakota to bolster their case. The South Dakota Water Management Board met for three days this week and two more earlier in October before deciding to add more days of testimony in December. The hearings have drawn engineers and experts, along with at least a dozen groups and people who said they would be affected by the pipeline’s construction. But in the midst of this week’s hearings, the Keystone pipeline in North Dakota leaked an approximate 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) in the northeastern part of the state, affecting a wetland. The cause of the leak is under investigation; meanwhile, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has asked pipeline owner TC Energy to review its inspection and monitoring of the line. “When we’re sitting in a hearing room and people are saying these pipelines are safe, then this happens,” said Faith Spotted Eagle, a member of the Yankton Sioux Tribe, which opposes the water permits. TC Energy, which is also developing the Keystone XL, is applying for permits to tap the Cheyenne, White, and Bad rivers in South Dakota during construction. The water will be used for drilling to install pipe, build pump stations and control dust during construction. Two ranchers also applied for water permits to supply backup water to worker camps. Though the state Department of Environment and Natural Resources has recommended approval, Keystone XL opponents view the permitting process as an opportunity to thwart the project — and the North Dakota spill as more reason to do so. “Certainly it’s another example of the poor quality of construction and problems that we have seen repeatedly not only with the Keystone 1 but with the overall practices of this company that wants to build another pipeline through our state,” said Rebecca Terk, an organizer with Dakota Rural Action.

North Dakota gov wants more monitoring after pipeline leak (AP) — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum appealed to Keystone pipeline owner TC Energy to review its inspection and monitoring of the line after it leaked an estimated 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) in the northeastern part of the state. Burgum spokesman Mike Nowatzki said the Republican governor spoke Thursday night to officials at the Calgary, Alberta-based company formerly known as TransCanada. The conversation came two days after the company shut down the pipeline after the leak was discovered and affected about 22,500 square feet (2090 sq. meters) of land near Edinburg, in Walsh County. Burgum said in a statement he “received assurance” from the company that the spill would be cleaned up “as thoroughly and quickly as possible.” North Dakota regulators said some wetlands were affected, but not any sources of drinking water. State Environmental Quality Chief Dave Glatt said the pipeline remained closed Friday and the cause of the spill was still unknown. About 4,200 gallons (15898.26 liters) of crude oil has been recovered from the spill, Glatt said. He said workers were expected to dig up a portion of the underground pipeline within the next few days to inspect it. “The company has the spill contained and nothing is moving off site,” Glatt said. Crude began flowing through the $5.2 billion pipeline in 2011. It’s designed to carry crude oil across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri on the way to refineries in Patoka, Illinois and Cushing, Oklahoma. It can handle about 23 million gallons (87.06 million liters) daily. The pipeline spill and shutdown come as the company seeks to build the $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline that would carry tar sands oil from Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Texas. The proposed Keystone XL pipeline has drawn opposition from people who fear it will harm the environment.

Rare permit for Keystone oil pipeline in spotlight after spills - (Reuters) - The massive Keystone pipeline has been transporting oil from Canada to the United States at a higher-than-standard level of pressure since it started operating in 2010, thanks to a special permit granted by U.S. regulators on the condition operator TC Energy Corp would monitor the line closely. However, after four significant leaks, including one of the largest of the decade in North Dakota last week, this exemption is in the spotlight and users of the line are concerned it may be at risk. The coveted permit granted in 2007 allowed TC Energy, then known as TransCanada, to use a higher-than-standard rate of pressure for Keystone in rural areas, according to U.S. regulatory documents reviewed by Reuters, meaning more oil could flow through the pipeline than similar-sized U.S. lines. Keystone is a crucial artery for crude oil flowing from Canada with a capacity of roughly 590,000 barrels per day going to Midwest refiners and connecting to storage terminals and exporters in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Keystone had to agree to more than 50 safety conditions to receive the exemption - given out only twice since by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Around the time the permit was granted, risk assessments the company provided to regulators indicated the chance of a leak of more than 50 barrels to be "not more than once every seven to 11 years over the entire length of the pipeline in the United States." (tinyurl.com/y2vb7lyc) Instead, over the past decade Keystone has had two leaks of 400 barrels and two leaks of several thousand, including the spill of more than 9,000 barrels last week, according to PHMSA data.

The Keystone Oil Spill No One's Talking About Will Be Nearly Impossible to Clean Up - When the Keystone Pipeline burst last week, half of an Olympic-sized swimming pool’s worth of a particularly dirty fossil fuel spilled into wetlands in North Dakota. And the thick liquid, known as tar sands oil, will be nearly impossible to clean up. The pipeline project started pumping back in 2010, despite opposition from farmers, indigenous groups, and environmental organizations. It carries oily sludge from the enormous tar sands fields in Alberta, Canada, across more than 2,000 miles of pristine wetlands in the Dakotas, through Nebraska to Patoka, Illinois. And now with this latest spill, some of the worst fears about it have been realized.The company, TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, projected that the pipeline would spill just 11 times over the course of 50 years, or about once every seven years. Since it started pumping, it’s already spilled large amounts of oil four times.Tar sands oil is a mixture of clay, water, and a thick, heavy oil called bitumen, the sticky stuff that binds cement together. The oil gets dissolved in a cocktail of chemicals, called diluent, to allow it to flow through a pipeline. (Imagine trying to suck peanut butter through a straw; that’s what pumping bitumen through a pipeline would be like without diluent.) Together, the combo of bitumen and diluent is called “dilbit.”TC Energy estimates that 383,000 gallons of the particularly sludgy tar sands oil spilled out of their pipeline on Oct. 29, near Edinburg, North Dakota, a rural town with a population of less than 200 on the edge of farmland and prairies.When tar sands oil spills, the diluent evaporates pretty quickly — causing toxic, short-term air pollution — and leaves the heavy bitumen behind, which sinks.“Once bitumen sinks to the bottom of a lake or wetland, it is much more problematic to clean up than conventional oil, which floats nicely and can be skimmed off the surface,” Diane Orihel, a professor in aquatic ecotoxicology at Queen’s University, told VICE News.The wetlands in the Dakotas, fertile breeding grounds for migratory birds like Canada geese and the American bittern, have already been widely drained out for agriculture. They once covered about 10% of the state; half were wiped out over the course of the 20th century to create more farmland. Only about 2.7 million acres of wetlands remain.When tar-sands oil leaches into wetlands, they’re just about impossible to restore entirely.

TC Energy says about 4,300 barrels of oil recovered from Keystone leak -(Reuters) - About 4,300 barrels of oil have been recovered from TC Energy Corp’s Keystone pipeline leak in Walsh County, North Dakota, the company said on Monday.“Preliminary work to expose and extract the damaged section of pipe has begun and is expected to be complete by the end of the week,” the company said in a statement, adding “about 200 round-the-clock personnel focused on clean-up and remediation activities.” The 590,000-barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline was shut last week after a drop in pressure was detected and was estimated to have spilled more-than 9,000 barrels of oil.

Cleanup continues after Keystone Pipeline oil spill near Edinburg, ND - Nearly half of the oil spilled last week outside Edinburg has been recovered, a TC Energy spokesperson reported Monday, Nov. 4. Canada-based TC Energy spokesperson Robynn Tysver said the company has about 200 round-the-clock personnel at the site of the Keystone Pipeline oil spill focused on clean-up and remediation activities. Twelve vacuum trucks have been used to remove 4,300 barrels of oil, and heavy machinery is being used to remove the affected dirt. Tysver said the waste from the site will be sent to an approved facility for disposal, though she said it is unclear at this point where that facility will be. Preliminary work to remove the damaged section of the pipe, a process which will last about a week, Tysver said. Once excavated, the pipe will be sent to a third-party laboratory for a full investigation, though she added that it is also unclear where that laboratory will be. Walsh County Emergency Manager Brent Nelson said that TC Energy has taken full control of the site. It remains unclear what caused the leak, which the state Division of Water Quality has characterized as high impact. "Our focus is really on the cleanup right now," Tysver said in a phone conversation with the Herald. "There will be an investigation, and, right now, we are not going to speculate." TC Energy announced that the pipeline had sprayed 9,120 barrels, or 383,040 gallons, of oil into a wetlands area 3 miles outside of Edinburg. Emergency officials have said they believe a computer system shut down the pipe almost immediately Tuesday night after it detected a pressure decrease around 10:20 p.m. Tysver said the next step in the cleanup process is to develop a remediation plan in conjunction with the landowner and federal regulators to restore the site. There is not currently a certain timeline for the project, but she said the work restoring the land will likely be impacted by the weather and the season.

Keystone pipeline spill hardens landowner opposition to proposed expansion - (Reuters) - A big oil spill from the Keystone Pipeline in North Dakota last week has hardened opposition to the controversial Keystone XL expansion among landowners along its route, who say they hope to use the incident to help block or stall the project in court. Operator TC Energy Corp is in the process of securing land easements for Keystone XL from scores of reluctant landowners in Nebraska, one of the final obstacles to a project linking Canada’s oil fields to U.S. refineries that has been delayed for over a decade by environmental opposition. The roughly 9,120-barrel spill from the existing Keystone line brings the number of significant releases since the system was built a decade ago to four - much higher than the company estimated in its risk assessments before it was approved - raising worries Keystone XL will be just as problematic. (Read story here) “The spill confirms what we have been warning people about over the last 10 years,” said Jeanne Crumly, who owns a cattle ranch along Keystone XL’s approved path and fears a spill could contaminate her land and harm her cows. Brian Jorde, an attorney for the Nebraska landowners, said he expects landowners to file “many appeals to District courts” to oppose TC Energy’s efforts to seize land by eminent domain, the legal provision allowing a government or company to take control of private land for the public good. Jorde said TC Energy had already begun eminent domain proceedings against 89 families who live along the Keystone XL route since it had secured its permits, and that appraisers were working to determine a “fair value” for the land that would be paid out to owners to finalize the process. Those assessments can be appealed, he said. “We are going to take this as far as we can in court and fight as long as we can. We hope a jury will be aware of the recent spills when they decide,” said Diana Steskal, one of the landowners.

Native American leaders: Keystone spill highlights the need to oppose Dakota Access Expansion, KXL - – After news hit of last week’s Keystone pipeline oil spill—approximately 383,000 gallons of oil leaked in North Dakota—leaders from four tribes of the Great Sioux Nation said this is exactly why they oppose both Keystone XL (KXL) and a looming expansion of the Dakota Access pipeline (DAPL). “This is what pipelines do: they spill,” said Chase Iron Eyes, lead counsel for the Lakota People’s Law Project and public relations director for Oglala Sioux Tribe President Julian Bear Runner. “This latest Keystone leak demonstrates why we stood against Dakota Access in the first place, why we’re doing so again now, and why we’re prepared to fight Keystone XL every step of the way.” A hearing on the proposed expansion, which could greenlight a new pumping station, will take place before the North Dakota Public Service Commission on Wednesday, November 13 at 9 a.m. CST at Emmons County Courthouse in Linton, right across the river from Standing Rock. If the station is approved along with two others, the result could be a near doubling of DAPL’s oil flow, from about 600,000 barrels per day to around 1.1 million. Standing Rock Sioux Tribal Chairman Mike Faith and Councilman Charles Walker said they hope an outpouring of public opposition will improve the chances of the Commission listening to Standing Rock and other tribes. “Allies are important in helping us relay our message,” said Faith. “Indigenous communities have always taught that we should care for the next seven generations. Dakota Access has already spilled 11 times, and now they want to double its capacity. That pipeline should be pulled out of the ground, and KXL should be stopped as well.” Said Walker: “Those of you who have stood with Standing Rock in the past, we compel you right now to stand with us once again as we oppose the increase of the amount of barrels flowing through the Dakota Access pipeline. Bring your voice to the North Dakota Public Service Commission in the form of letters and attending the hearing.” As it did during the original DAPL protests in 2016 and 2017, Standing Rock is now serving as a rallying point for a movement inclusive of several Native nations. Cheyenne River Sioux Tribal Chairman Harold Frazier said that Indigenous objections to DAPL have never been adequately addressed. “We need to stand up and remind America that we’re still here,” said Frazier. “Our voices were never heard in the construction and the planning of the Dakota access pipeline, and in addition to that, we have a lot of questions that we would like for [the Commission] to answer.”

Keystone line to remain closed until corrective action taken (AP) — Federal regulators have ordered the Keystone pipeline to remain shut down until its Canadian owner takes corrective action aimed at determining the cause of a breach that leaked an estimated 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) of oil in northeastern North Dakota. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration issued the order Tuesday to Calgary, Alberta-based TC Energy. The action comes one week after the pipeline leak was discovered and affected about 22,500 square feet (2,090 square meters) of land near Edinburg, in Walsh County. The pipeline has been shut down since Oct. 29. It is designed to carry crude oil across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri on the way to refineries in Patoka, Illinois, and Cushing, Oklahoma. The order requires the company to send the affected portion of the 30-inch (76-centimeter) steel pipeline to an independent laboratory for testing. The company also must develop a plan to restart the line and for remediation. TC Energy, formerly known as TransCanada, said in a statement it expects to have the damaged portion of the pipeline excavated by the end of the week. The company said it has about 200 people at the site working around the clock who are “focused on clean-up and remediation activities.” Karl Rockeman, North Dakota’s water quality division director, said Wednesday about 252,000 gallons (954,000 liters) of crude oil have been recovered. Rockeman said some wetlands were affected, but not any sources of drinking water. The pipeline spill and shutdown come as the company seeks to build the $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline that would carry tar sands oil from Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Texas. The proposed Keystone XL pipeline has drawn opposition from people who fear it will cause environmental damage.

Vital Canadian pipeline to remain offline after oil spill - The section of the Keystone oil pipeline in North Dakota where some 9,000 barrels of crude spilled last month will remain shut until operator TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, submits a restart and return-to-service plan.That’s an order by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, which found if the pipeline continued operating before repairs were done, it would be dangerous for local communities and the environment, Reuters reports.“After considering the age of the pipe, the circumstances surrounding the failure, the hazardous nature of the product being transported, the pressure required for transporting the material, the other recent failures of the Keystone Pipeline in 2016 and November 2017, .... I find that a failure to issue this Order expeditiously to require immediate corrective action would result in likely serious harm to life, property, and the environment,” a PHMSA official said in the order.In a separate report, Reuters said workers for TC Energy had already plugged Keystone in that section in order to access the damaged area and see what caused it. It remains unclear how long the repairs would take but one thing is certain: the incident would not go unnoticed by pipeline opponents.This is the second shutdown of the 590,000-bpd pipeline that transports Albertan crude to the United States. In mid-October, TC Energy itself shut down the pipeline declaring force majeure after severe snowstorms in Manitoba.The Keystone pipeline is one of the few vital outlets for Canadian crude and any disruption in its operation is bound to affect prices sharply due to the lack of alternative outlets. Unfortunately for the industry, there were several spills from the pipeline over the last ten years, as noted in the PHMSA order, which will strengthen the anti-pipeline arguments of various groups. The immediate effect, however, will be on Canadian crude prices, which although much higher than their December 2018 trough, are still trading at a substantial discount to WTI.

Oil spill reported at facility near Santa Maria - An oil spill was reported Wednesday morning at a Greka facility along Black Rd. near Santa Maria.According to the Santa Barbara County Fire Department, an inspector arrived to find that between 8-10 barrels of crude oil had leaked from a 1/2 inch line.That line was shut down.Fire officials say the spill is not affecting any nearby waterways and the oil is contained in secondary containment. Greka is reportedly working to mitigate the spill. State and federal authorities have been notified of the spill, according to fire officials. Oil spill, 5080 Black Rd, Santa Maria Valley. 8-10 barrels of crude released from a 1/2 inch line. Line is shut down. All oil contained in secondary containment. No waterways affected. All notifications have been made.Mitigation underway. @EliasonMike @YourFireChief pic.twitter.com/Vdznkkmeuq

Trump administration schedules lease sale for Arctic Alaska lands - (Reuters) - The Trump administration said on Tuesday it will be auctioning off nearly 4 million acres (1.6 million hectares) of land in Arctic Alaska for oil development next month, and it is promising much more territory will be open to development in the future. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) announced that its annual oil and gas lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska will be held on Dec. 11. The sale will be the 15th in a series of oil lease sales held by the BLM for that region on the western side of Alaska’s North Slope. The BLM is also finishing up a draft plan to overturn Obama-era protections that put about half of the 23 million-acre (9.3 million-hectare) reserve off limits to oil development, citing needs to protect caribou, migratory birds and other resources important to the region’s indigenous people and to the nation. The Trump administration and the oil industry argue the Obama plan is too restrictive and needs to be replaced. The reserve, which lies well to the west of the legacy Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk oil fields, was undeveloped for decades. Several recent discoveries have sparked a westward expansion of oil development on the North Slope, and the petroleum reserve – the largest single U.S. federal land unit – is seen as a promising region for new Alaska oil production.

Canadian oil prices crash after Keystone spill -Prices for Canadian oil continue to sink as the Keystone Pipeline remains offline.The pipeline sprung a leak late last month, spilling more than 9,000 barrels of oil into wetlands in North Dakota. The pipeline has been online for less than a decade, but has suffered several high-profile spills. The cleanup could also prove to be difficult.The disasters come as the pipeline’s owner – TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) – is trying to build the Keystone XL pipeline. Reuters reports that the spill has hardened opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline in Nebraska, where TC Energy is still trying to acquire land.Meanwhile, the outage could continue longer than initially expected. Federal regulators from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) said that the pipeline has to remain closed until TC Energy can determine the cause of the spill. To that end, the company needs to send a portion of the affected steel pipeline to an independent lab for testing. After that, TC Energy needs to come up with a plan for remediation.The prospect of an extended outage of the 590,000-bpd pipeline has already pushed down prices for Western Canada Select (WCS). WCS fell below $35 per barrel by midweek even as WTI traded higher. As a result, the discount has widened from around $16 per barrel before the spill, to as much as $23 per barrel a week later. “So far it remains unclear how long Keystone will remain shut in, but it could take up to a couple of months until flows are completely resumed,” JBC Energy said in a note on November 1. “A similar incident in November 2017 led to a blow-out of WCS differentials from $10 per barrel to $30 per barrel, but this time more crude volumes are committed to rail transportation.”

Alberta easing restrictions for oil companies - – The Government of Alberta will be easing restrictions on curtailment for oil and gas companies.The update to the curtailment policy means producers can drill new conventional wells without restrictions.Existing wells will remain under the curtailments.Energy Minister Sonya Savage said they hope to bring jobs and investment back to the province.“Our job here and our focus from a government perspective is on bringing back investment and creating jobs first and two is protecting the value of the resource for Albertans.”The new rules apply to companies drilling new wells outside the oil sands, which includes fracking.The announcement comes despite several oil and gas companies making cuts in recent weeks. This includes layoffs at Husky Energy and the move of Encana to the United States.Savage says she’s disappointed by these decisions but points the finger at the previous provincial and federal governments.“They built nothing and they drove away investment and jobs. Basically, they burnt it to the ground and salted the earth. We’re doing everything they can to bring back investment, to revitalize the economy.” Decreases in oil production were brought in under the NDP government as an emergency measure to deal with a growing price gap between Western Canadian Select and other oil prices.

The Drilling Frenzy Is Over For U.S. Shale -A few high-profile shale executives say the glory days of shale drilling are over.In a round of earnings calls, the financial results were mixed. A few companies beat earnings estimates, while others fell dramatically short.But aside from the individual performances, there were some more newsworthy comments from executives on the state of the industry. A common theme emerged from several notable shale executives: the growth frenzy is coming to an end.The chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield, said that the Permian basin is “going to slow down significantly over the next several years,” and he noted on the company’s latest earnings call that the company is also acting with more restraint because of pressure from shareholders not to pursue unprofitable growth. “I’ve lowered my targets and my annual targets, a lot of it has to do with…to start with the free cash flow model that public independents are adopting,” Sheffield said.But there are also operational problems that have become impossible to ignore for the industry. He listed several factors that explain the Permian slowdown: “the strained balance sheets lot of the companies have, the parent-child relationships that companies are having, people drilling a lot of Tier 2 acreage,” Sheffield said. “So I'm probably getting much more optimistic about 2021 to 2025 now in regard to oil price.” In other words, U.S. shale is slamming on the brakes, which may yet engineer a rebound in global oil prices.He said that this would be good news for OPEC. “I don't think OPEC has to worry that much more about U.S. shale growth long-term,” Sheffield said. “And all that is very beneficial. So we are probably going to be more careful in the years 2021 to 2025 because there's not much coming on after the three big countries that are bringing on discoveries over the next 12 months Norway, Brazil and Guyana.”Still, the oil market is starting down a glut in 2020 and OPEC is trying to press its members to tighten up compliance with the production cuts in order to boost prices.Sheffield wasn’t alone. Mark Papa, CEO of Centennial Resource Development (and former CEO of EOG Resources), was also downbeat on growth prospects. “At a September investor conference, I predicted that 2020 total U.S. year-over-year oil growth would be 700,000 barrels per day which at that time was considerably below consensus,” Papa said on an earnings call on Tuesday. “Given additional data I now think that 2020 year-over-year oil growth will be roughly 400,000 barrels per day which is below current consensus.” He noted that U.S. oil production has been essentially flat for 9 out of the last 10 months, and “it’s likely to slightly decline over the next six months.”

Idled frac fleets sold for scrap amid shale drilling slump - The downturn in shale drilling has been so steep and brisk that oilfield companies are taking the unprecedented step of scrapping entire fleets of fracing gear. With almost half of U.S. frac firepower expected to be sitting idle within weeks, shale specialists including Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. and RPC Inc. are retiring truck-mounted pumping units and other equipment used to shatter oil-soaked shale rock. Whereas in previous market slumps, fracers parked unused equipment to await a revival in demand, this time it’s different: Gear is being stripped down for parts or sold for scrap. As stagnant oil prices and investor pressure discourage new drilling, the fracing industry that was growing so fast it couldn’t find enough workers as recently as two years ago now finds itself buried in a mountain of pumps, pipes and storage tanks. The contagion is spreading beyond fracing specialists to sand miners and the truckers who haul it. U.S. Silica Holdings Inc., the top supplier of frack sand, tumbled 38% on Tuesday after announcing plans to shut mines on the back of disappointing quarterly results. Fracing an oil well involves surrounding the hole with an array of pumping trucks and other equipment that shoot high-pressure jets of water, sand and chemicals deep underground. For that reason, capacity is measured in horsepower. About 2.2 million horsepower, or roughly 10% of industry capacity, already has been earmarked for the scrap heap, according to Scott Gruber, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. In addition to Patterson and RPC, Gruber said industry titans Schlumberger Ltd. and Halliburton Co. probably are retiring parts of their fleets, and at least another 1 million horsepower needs to be eliminated to halt the slide in fracing fees.

Weatherford Reports $821MM 3Q Loss - Struggling oilfield services company Weatherford International had a loss of $821 million in third quarter of 2019. In an Oct. 30 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Weatherford also posted a quarterly revenue of $1.31 billion, down from $1.44 billion a year ago. Weatherford filed for bankruptcy in early July and is currently still undergoing restructuring. In the SEC filing, the company reported $303 million in costs related to its reorganization. The oilfield services market has struggled as of late as powerhouses Schlumberger and Halliburton both reported less than stellar third quarter earnings. Weatherford has had a rough few years and had been divesting assets to help pay down debt prior to its bankruptcy filing. “Due to the highly competitive nature of our business and the continuing losses we incurred over the last few years, we continue to reduce our overall cost structure and workforce to better align our business with current activity levels,” Weatherford stated in the SEC filing. “The ongoing transformation plan, which began in 2018 and is expected to extend significantly beyond the originally planned year-end 2019 target, includes a workforce reduction, organization restructure, facility consolidations and other cost reduction measures and efficiency initiatives across all of our geographic regions.”

Exxon, Chevron issue warning on Warren's fracking ban --   Oil producers are starting to get pressure from investors about the possibility of Democratic presidential candidates banning energy development on federal land or imposing a fracking ban. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the two biggest U.S. oil companies, answered questions from analysts during earnings calls last week about how a change in federal drilling policy and a hydraulic fracturing ban could affect their operations and investment in the country's most prolific oil field, the Permian Basin in Texas. The same concerns have popped up in other companies' quarterly earnings calls and in analysts' notes. The dialogue signals that both oil companies and their investors are seriously contemplating a future in which a new president imposes a sea change in energy regulation — and they're not expecting the eventual Democratic nominee to tack back toward the center once elected. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has perhaps gotten the most attention, after saying she'd block new federal oil and gas leases on her first day in office and ban fracking nationwide on both public and private property. But most of the Democratic candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden, have also talked about stopping new federal leasing. "It's not just Elizabeth Warren," said Rob Thummel, a managing director at Tortoise Capital Advisors, which oversees $22 billion in funds. The Warren campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Exxon, Chevron and their smaller counterparts stressed on earnings calls that they have flexibility to develop oil in other places if a new administration cracks down on federal land drilling. Any efforts to do so could raise prices, they said. And they're honing arguments for how to stave off a policy change before it happens — pointing to the benefits of natural gas over coal as a power plant fuel, and to their research into biofuels and other alternatives. "Any efforts to ban fracking or restrict supply will not remove demand for the resource," said Exxon Vice President Neil Hansen. "If anything, it will shift the economic benefit away from the U.S. to another country, and a potentially impact the price of that commodity here and globally."

Big Oil Gets Bigger  - Big oil has gotten bigger. A lot bigger. That’s what Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie, stated in his latest version of The Edge, a regular column published on the company’s website. “The majors have increased commercial reserves by 62 billion barrels of oil equivalent (proven and probable) through the downturn, equivalent to another BP and Chevron combined,” Flowers said in the column. “Our forecast for 2030 production for the seven companies is over six million boepd, or 40 percent higher today than it was in our 2014 view,” he added. In the column, Flowers asked Tom Ellacott, Wood Mackenzie’s senior vice president, if the majors are chasing volume rather than value. “No, far from it,” was Ellacott’s response. “Cash generation is paramount – cost-cutting and productivity gains have driven cash flow breakevens down from $63 per barrel in 2015 to an average of just $40 per barrel today,” Ellacott stated in the column. “We’ve also seen a profound strategic shift with companies building resilience into portfolios … We’d say the majors aren’t just bigger but are also in far better shape” Ellacott added. Flowers also asked Ellacott if bigger means “less focused”. “No, the opposite,” Ellacott stated in the column. “We’re starting to see increasing portfolio concentration,” he added. Ellacott highlighted that the majors are focusing on asset types or geographies “where they have competitive strengths and competencies”. “The U.S. majors, for example, have significantly strengthened tight oil exposure. European Majors have used DROs, M&A and exploration to beef up advantaged positions in conventional plays,” Ellacott stated. The seven big oil companies comprise Equinor, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, Shell, BP and Total, according to Wood Mackenzie.

England fracking projects halted by government due to scientific study findings - England fracking operations have long been controversial in the nation with gas and oil companies supporting the extraction process and many residents and environmentalists wanting to see fracking (hydraulic fracturing) banned. Now, after the release of a report from the government agency Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), Johnson’s government has pulled a 180, withdrawing future support and halting present operations. The report could not rule out “unacceptable” consequences for residents who live near fracking sites. The government decided to stop England fracking operations when the OGA report warned that it wasn’t possible to rule out “unacceptable” consequences for people who live near where the hydraulic fracturing operations take place. Among those consequences included pollution risks and earthquake damage. It also said that it would not be possible to predict the magnitude of earthquakes that fracking may trigger. Earthquakes caused by fracking, often referred to as “frackquakes,” are a common occurrence at fracking sites and are typically small. The only active site in the UK, which is operated by Cuadrilla and located in Lanacshire, has experienced many. Back in December of last year, Hydrogen Fuel News reported at the time that the site had experienced 36 small tremors since its operation began only a few months earlier in October 2018. Of those tremors, four required the company to stop operations because they had surpassed the tremor threshold of 0.5 magnitude. In addition to immediately stopping the one operating frack site in the UK, the government has also warned shale gas companies that it would not agree to any future fracking projects in the nation until there was new and compelling evidence that proved hydraulic fracturing could be safe. “After reviewing the OGA’s report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community,” said business and energy secretary Andrea Leadsome, reports the Guardian.

UK halts all fracking after report fuels earthquake fears - The UK has called a halt to fracking after a new report found it was impossible to predict “the probability or magnitude of earthquakes” caused by the shale gas extraction technique. The decision comes at the start of an election campaign where opposition parties are set to make environmental issues central to their attacks on Boris Johnson’s Conservative party. The government said there would be a “moratorium” on fracking until “compelling new evidence” showed that it was safe. The new policy is a sharp reversal of the government’s stance, with Mr Johnson and Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, both voicing support for fracking in the past. In 2013, George Osborne, then chancellor, announced “the most generous tax regime in the world” for shale gas, saying he wanted “Britain to be a leader of the shale gas revolution”. Although ministers insisted until recently that shale gas could help Britain make the “transition” to a zero carbon economy, replacing imported gas from the Middle East, fracking has been increasingly targeted by a powerful new environmental movement. Earlier this year, Theresa May legislated to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050 as one of her last acts as prime minister, making Britain the first major economy to legislate for such a target, reflecting the lobbying of groups such as Extinction Rebellion.   Ministers imposed the fracking moratorium after the report by the Oil and Gas Authority. It also follows the biggest UK earthquake yet, at Preston New Road, near Blackpool, where Cuadrilla, the shale gas group, suspended operations after a tremor shook nearby houses. The tremor measured 250 times the level permitted by the government. Cuadrilla, which has spent £270m on its fracking operations in the UK, is offering compensation payments of a few hundred pounds to affected householders. Cuadrilla caused a weaker tremor in 2011 at a nearby site, which led to a seven-year pause in operations in the UK. Labour called on the government to legislate for a permanent ban. “The next Labour government will ban fracking — whereas the Tories will only call a temporary halt to it,” said Rebecca Long-Bailey, shadow business secretary.

Fracking halted in England in major government U-turn - The government has halted fracking in England with immediate effect in a watershed moment for environmentalists and community activists.Ministers also warned shale gas companies it would not support future fracking projects, in a crushing blow to companies that had been hoping to capitalise on one of the new frontiers of growth in the fossil fuel industry.The decision draws a line under years of bitter opposition to the controversial extraction process in a major victory for green groups and local communities.The decision was taken after a new scientific study warned it was not possible to rule out “unacceptable” consequences for those living near fracking sites.The report, undertaken by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), also warned it was not possible to predict the magnitude of earthquakes fracking might trigger. Fracking, also known as hydraulic fracturing, involves pumping water, chemicals and sand underground at high pressure to fracture shale rock and release trapped oil and gas. The government said it would not agree to any future fracking “until compelling new evidence is provided” that proves fracking could be safe. The UK’s only active fracking site at Preston New Road in Lancashire was brought to an immediate halt this summer after fracking triggered multiple earth tremors that breached the government’s earthquake limits.

Fracking firms see shares crash after government calls halt - Shares in the UK’s fracking companies plummeted this morning, after the government announced a moratorium on the controversial extractive technique over the weekend. Shares in Australian firm AJ Lucas, which owns a 47.4 per cent stake in leading exploratory company Cuadrilla, fell 24 per cent. Read more: Government bans fracking “with immediate effect” London-listed IGas, which runs exploratory operations in the east of England, were down 9.6 per cent, and independent onshore gas firm Egdon Resources saw its trading price fall nearly 22 per cent. On Saturday, ministers took the decision to call a halt to fracking operations on the basis of a report by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), which found that it is impossible to accurately predict the probability or magnitude of earthquakes linked to fracking operations. Business secretary Andrea Leadsom said: “After reviewing the OGA’s report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts [of fracking] on the local community. The companies were resolute in the face of the announcement. In a statement, IGas chief executive Stephen Bowler said: “We, as a country, need to decide whether we are in control of own our carbon footprint or whether we are reliant on imports.“Domestically produced gas would generate skilled jobs and investment into the country whilst upholding some of the highest environmental standards in the world.”

Shale gas fracking wasted ‘millions of taxpayers’ cash’, say scientists --Ministers have been condemned for wasting millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money in a failed attempt to introduce fracking to the UK. The bid also cost the nation a decade of effort that should have been expended on other, more environmentally friendly energy projects, scientists and activists claimed yesterday.  The criticisms were made in the wake of the government’s decision on Friday to impose a moratorium on fracking in the UK. A review published by the Oil and Gas Authority concluded it was impossible to predict the likelihood or scale of earthquakes triggered by fracking.  The moratorium leaves the government with an option to restart fracking in future years. However, many critics believe the technology is not suitable for the UK.  “Fracking is utterly incompatible with our aims of ending the burning of fossil fuels in this country in a couple of decades,” said geologist Professor Stuart Haszeldine, of Edinburgh University. “Pursuing the technology of fracking while embracing the concept of having a carbon-free society is an example of national schizophrenia. It has wasted millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money. It has also wasted a decade when we should have been pursuing other goals.”  This point was backed by Professor Jon Gluyas, director of the Durham Energy Institute at Durham University. “The government ban on fracking is a neat way of ignoring the now inescapable truth that the projected shale gas potential for the UK is tiny at best. We have, though, as a nation wasted a decade hoping for more gas to heat our homes rather than installing ultra-low carbon geothermal heating like that used in much of Europe.”

Years of Offshore Investments Could be Valueless -- Years of offshore investments could be valueless. That’s according to Rystad Energy, which stated that international exploration and production (E&P) companies are struggling to make money from offshore investments made during the latest investment upturn. In a new study, Rystad evaluated all offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil under various oil price scenarios. According to the company, entire vestiges of offshore field development projects will fail to offer a return on investment in today’s oil price environment. For example, Rystad noted that offshore projects sanctioned between 2010 and 2012 have “barely been able to generate any value” for E&P companies and highlighted that projects sanctioned between 2013 and 2014 are “expected to have no value creation”. In addition, Rystad revealed that for upstream companies to come out of the 2013-2014 investment years without “massive losses”, the oil price will need to increase to around $70 per barrel. Looking further ahead, Rystad said value creation is positive for sanctioning between 2015 and 2018, even when applying a future oil price of only $40 per barrel. “Looking back at the offshore projects sanctioned between 2010 and 2014 with the knowledge we have today, we see that the last offshore investment cycle is struggling to create value,” Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement. “High development costs combined with low oil prices have severely undermined the profitability of these assets,” Erlingsen added. “With the pivot in development costs from 2015 onwards, the projects sanctioned over the last four years are in a much better position,” the Rystad representative continued.

Giant Offshore Brazil Oil Discovery May Be Expensive for Exxon-- Exxon Mobil Corp. could take a pass on what it considers the world’s top deep-water oil discovery when Brazil puts the giant Buzios field up for auction next week. The Irving, Texas-based oil titan already has a large portfolio of offshore Brazil blocks it built up in recent years when access to one of the world’s hottest exploration regions was more affordable, Stephen Greenlee, Exxon’s president of exploration, said in an interview in Rio de Janeiro. The company needs to weigh Buzios against opportunities such as U.S. shale, other deep-water regions and liquefied natural gas projects, he said. “Whether or not we participate, it would be wrapped up in how we would see that opportunity versus all the other investment options, because there are a lot of investment options out there right now,” said Greenlee, who traveled to Brazil to participate in the Offshore Technology Conference. “If you ask my counterparts in other companies, they would give you the same deal. It’s a very, very unique opportunity but it has to fit in with everything else.” Brazil’s planned sale of oil exploration and production licenses on Nov. 6, known as the Transfer of Rights, is the largest offering of discovered oil reserves since Iraq opened up in 2009, according to Wood Mackenzie. But access isn’t cheap. The four oil fields for sale in the so-called pre-salt region could cost more than $50 billion. Exxon isn’t the only oil major to express concern about the cost. Total SA, Repsol SA and BP Plc have said they don’t plan to participate. If bidders pledge more than the minimum terms, the returns on investment could be reduced to the single digits, Wood Mackenzie said. The research firm estimates production from the four areas could reach 1.4 million barrels a day by 2030.  Still, Greenlee described Buzios as the “largest and most prolific” deep-water discovery ever, and is in a country with a proven track record for respecting contracts, and that to take it on would be a “big deal for any company.” The deep-sea deposits could hold 15 billion barrels of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves. Winners are expected to pay $25 billion in licensing fees and share a portion of their production with the government. In addition, they will need to negotiate payments to Petrobras for investments it has already made in the area that could add another $25 billion or more, government officials with knowledge of the matter have said.

Brazil’s Overhyped Oil Auction Ends In Failure - What would have been Brazil’s biggest oil auction ever has ended in a near-total flop, as oil majors steered clear of the pricey oil areas up for grabs. Brazil was hoping to rake in more than $25 billion from the auction to offset a portion of its budget deficit and change its nationalistic oil industry ways by offering foreign players at seat at the table.Another $25 billion was set to go to Petrobras in exchange for work Petrobras had already done in exploring the areas up for grabs.But Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), and a consortium that involved Petrobras, were the only winning bidders, according to the Associated Press, picking up two of the four blocks. The other two blocks, however, went unsold in what was a major disappointment for Brazil—and Petrobras.A Petrobras (90%) consortium that involved CNOOC and CNODC managed to take home the mega Buzios field, as expected, after Petrobras admitted it would bid to win for Buzios. Petrobras also secured the rights to the Itapu block, for which it was the only bidder.But Petrobras will be stretched mighty thin in developing Buzios, as attractive as that block may be. And with just a tiny amount of the $25 billion it was expecting in fees from other winning bidders in the auction, it will be stretched even thinner. Still, Brazil took in $17 billion in licensing fees from the two blocks that were awarded, and Brazil is calling it a success. Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque said it would offer the unsold blocks again next year.

Massive Oil Spill Turns Brazil's Beaches Black, Kills Marine Life, Threatens Communities -One by one, the golden beaches in northeastern Brazil have begun to turn black. Thick clumps of oil have been washing ashore since late August, killing marine animals, threatening the livelihoods of coastal communities and tainting 2,500 kilometers of coastline spanning nine Brazilian states. Once-pristine beaches now look like something resembling a Rorschach inkblot test. And the complex root systems of carbon sink mangrove forests have become polluted mazes. This oil spill is one of the largest environmental disasters in Brazil's recorded history — and for months, no one knew where it was coming from. The Brazilian government has responded with delayed action and defensiveness, first blaming neighboring Venezuela for the spill while also suggesting that Greenpeace was somehow involved. President Jair Bolsonaro's tactic is familiar: He previously accused environmental groups of setting fires in the Amazon rainforest, without any supporting evidence. Brazilian investigators now say that a Greek-flagged vessel hauling Venezuelan oil is the culprit, according to the latest reports. The ship reportedly spilled oil 700 kilometers from Brazil's coast in late July while traveling to Singapore. "There is strong evidence that the company, the captain and the vessel's crew failed to communicate with authorities about the oil spill/release of the crude oil in the Atlantic Ocean," prosecutors said, according to The Guardian. While the mystery appears to have been solved, this environmental crisis is far from remedied. Some fear that the oil could soon reach the country's largest coral reef, located within the Abrolhos Marine National Park. The Abrolhos region is home to the largest biodiversity in the South Atlantic. Update, Nov. 4: Brazilian and international media are now reporting that fragments of oil have reached the Abrolhos Marine National Park. This story is still developing.

Delta Tankers finds no spill evidence- Update - The owner of the suspected culprit of a major late-July oil spill off the Brazilian coast said that its internal investigation found no evidence that the spill came from its tanker."There is no proof of the vessel having stopped, conducted any kind of ship-to-ship (STS) operation, oil leaked/spilled, slowed down or veered off course" on its passage from Venezuela to Malacca, Malaysia, Greece-based Delta Tankers said over the weekend.Delta Tankers said it searched material from the ship's cameras and sensors and will share this material with Brazilian authorities, should they contact the company.The firm denied on 2 November that it has been contacted by Brazilian authorities. Brazilian police had said it carried out a search at the Rio de Janeiro office of the owner of the targeted tanker. The police searches were later determined to have focused on the Rio offices of Lachmann Shipping Agency and Witt O'Brien's.Lachmann said it was not the focus of the police investigation of the spill, but was only required to cooperate with investigators. "The agency is at the disposal of the authorities for any further information." Witt O'Brien's said Delta is not a client in Brazil.In a televised broadcast yesterday, Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro said all facts pointed to Delta Tankers' involvement in the spill that has reached more than 230 points along Brazil's northeastern coast and is now headed toward a coral reef. He warned the "worst is yet to come" in terms of the environmental impact.

Brazil adds four other tankers as suspects for oil spill (Reuters) - After initially naming only one ship, Brazilian authorities have added four more tankers as suspects in the investigation into the source of oil tarring its coastline over the past two months, according to a document on Wednesday. Brazilian investigators said last week that a Greek-flagged tanker named Bouboulina and owned by Delta Tankers Ltd was a suspect as the possible cause of the oil spill. Delta denied responsibility, saying the vessel arrived to its destination without losing any fuel or part of the cargo.On Wednesday, Delta Tankers said in a statement that it had been notified of the investigation. The company also said Brazilian authorities named four other tankers as suspects: Maran Apollo, Maran Libra, Minerva Alexandra and Cap Pembroke.Brazil’s Navy said it would not comment on the information. Maran Apollo and Maran Libra are two VLCC (very large crude carriers), capable of carrying more than 300,000 tonnes of oil, both owned by Greek company Maran Tankers Management Inc.According to information in the vessels tracking system at Refinitiv’s Eikon terminal, both tankers stopped in Venezuela and then passed near Brazil’s Northeast coast on their way to Asia in the last 180 days. Maran Tankers Management did not immediately return a request for comment.Minerva Alexandra is an Aframax tanker with capacity to carry around 100,000 tonnes. It is owned by Minerva Marine Inc, also a Greek firm, and apparently loaded oil at a port in the U.S. Gulf before heading to Asia, also passing close to B razil’s Northeast coast on its way south.

There's No Stopping The World's Most Politically-Charged Pipeline -This week, Denmark granted Gazprom approval for its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, a project that is set to bring 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas into Europe annually. It is one of the most controversial pipeline projects in the world and is now moving ahead despite strong opposition from multiple EU members and the United States.  But for all the politics and attention that this pipeline is attracting, the simple truth of the matter is that Europe, and more specifically Germany, needs this natural gas. Germany plans to shut down all its nuclear reactors by 2022. Many have questioned the wisdom—and some even the sanity—of that decision, but it remains government policy. The generation capacity the is being lost in that sector will need to be replaced, in the short term at least, by natural gas. Despite its green reputation, Germany is a country that generates a surprisingly large portion of its total energy from coal. Its total installed coal-fired capacity is close to its solar capacity, at 44.9 GW, versus 47.9 GW for solar. At today’s growth rates, it’s current solar and wind capacity will not be enough to replace the retired nuclear plants. The only other option, which would be boosting the share of coal in the country's energy mix, is a political non-starter in Germany. Natural gas is, therefore, the only viable replacement and Germany is fully aware that its gas consumption is set to soar in the coming years. Related: Protect The Oil: Trump’s Top Priority In The Middle East Now, this gas doesn’t have to come from Russia, of course. It could come from the United States in LNG tankers. In fact, the European Union as a whole earlier this year promised President Trump to double its imports of U.S. LNG over the next five years. But they didn’t make the promise voluntarily. It came in response to a threat from Trump to slap import tariffs on European cars. One may wonder why the EU, for all its anti-Russian rhetoric and sanctions, and legislative amendments aimed at curbing Gazprom’s role on the European gas market would need the incentive of a tariff threat to diversify away from Russian gas. The answer is, again, simple. It’s the price. U.S. liquefied natural gas has to be, well, liquefied first, then loaded on a tanker and shipped across the ocean to Europe. Russian gas runs through pipelines as is. And, even if LNG were there answer, there is Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant that is exporting the liquefied fuel to Europe, which is much nearer Yamal than the Gulf Coast.

Europe’s gas alliance with Russia is a match made in heaven - Amidst the excitement over the killing of the ISIS chief Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, a development of much impact on international security passed by when Denmark made the innocuous announcement on October 30 that it would permit the proposed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to pass through its exclusive economic zone.Copenhagen modestly explained that it was “obliged to allow the construction of transit pipelines” under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.The Nord Stream 2, which will connect Russia’s Leningrad Region to Germany’s Baltic coast, bypassing the traditional route via Ukraine, aims to double the capacity of the already-built Nord Stream 1 to 110 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year that is more than a quarter of the European Union’s gas consumption.On October 31, Gazprom, Russia’s energy Leviathan, had said 83 percent of the pipeline construction — more than 2100 km of the pipeline — was complete. The permit to construct in the Danish Exclusive Economic Zone south-east of Bornholm covers a 147-km-long route section.Pipelay has been completed in Russian, Finnish and Swedish waters, and for the most part in German waters. The construction of both landfall facilities in Russia and Germany is nearing completion. Thus, the development last week signifies that Russia is certain to finish the project by the end of this year.Despite the rising tensions in Russia’s relations with the United States, a m assive energy project is all set to slither along the seabed between Russia and the European Union. The US wants to stifle the serpent in its infancy but Germany and Russia navigated it to the home stretch. The project is expected to ensure safe and stable supplies of gas to Europe. The competitive Russian gas supplies will enable European customers to save anywhere around 8 billion euros on their gas bill in 2020. More importantly, according to a study conducted by the University of Cologne EWI, “When Nord Stream 2 is available, Russia can supply more gas to the EU decreasing the need to import more expensive LNG. Hence, the import price for the remaining LNG volumes decreases, thereby reducing the overall EU-28 price level.”

Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming - — A surge of oil production is coming, whether the world needs it or not. The flood of crude will arrive even as concerns about climate change are growing and worldwide oil demand is slowing. And it is not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. This looming new supply may be a key reason Saudi Arabia’s giant oil producer, Aramco, pushed ahead on Sunday with plans for what could be the world’s largest initial stock offering ever. Together, the four countries stand to add nearly a million barrels a day to the market in 2020 and nearly a million more in 2021, on top of the current world crude output of 80 million barrels a day. That boost in production, along with global efforts to lower emissions, will almost certainly push oil prices down. Lower prices could prove damaging for Aramco and many other oil companies, reducing profits and limiting new exploration and drilling, while also reshaping the politics of the nations that rely on oil income. The new rise in production is likely to bring economic relief to consumers at the gas pump and to importing nations like China, India and Japan. But cheaper oil may complicate efforts to combat global warming and wean consumers and industries off their dependence on fossil fuels, because lower gasoline prices could, for example, slow the adoption of electric vehicles. Canada, Norway, Brazil and Guyana are all relatively stable at a time of turbulence for traditional producers like Venezuela and Libya and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Their oil riches should undercut efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia to support prices with cuts in production and give American and other Western policymakers an added cushion in case there are renewed attacks on oil tankers or processing facilities in the Persian Gulf. “Since all four of these countries are largely insulated from traditional geopolitical turmoil, they will add to global energy security,” Mr. Yergin said. But he also predicted that as with shale, the incremental supply gain, combined with a sluggish world economy, could drive prices lower.

India on course for lowest fuel demand growth in 6 years - (Reuters) - Growth in demand for fuel in India is on course to fall to its lowest in at least six years as the economy slows and after heavy rains impacted gasoil consumption, which accounts for about two-fifth of the nation’s overall fuel use. In the fiscal year to March 2019, fuel demand rose by 3.4%, the lowest in five years. During April-September, consumption of refined fuels - a proxy for oil demand - rose 1.4% from a year ago, according to government data. “It means in the next few months (in this fiscal year) fuel demand need to grow by 3%-4% to reach last year’s levels, which looks unlikely,” M.K Surana, chairman of state-run Hindustan Petroleum Corp told a news conference. HPCL controls about a quarter of India’s retail fuel market. Slowing economic and industrial activity has already led some global agencies to cut their fuel demand forecast for India.

Oil spill reappears in Ras Ghareb  -Crude oil spills have re-emerged on the beaches of Ras Ghareb Corniche, which has been the site of petroleum pollution (from crude oil) in several areas. Oil spills covered the beach for up to a kilometer amid warnings of damage to the marine and beach environment and the spread of pollution to other areas. The Environmental Affairs Agency in Hurghada and the Ministry of Environment’s task force in the Red Sea received a notification of the incident on Tuesday.A committee of environmental researchers from the Red Sea moved to the site of the pollution, obtained a sample of the spill, and sent it to the laboratories of the Environmental Affairs Agency in Suez to determine the source of the spill and take legal action amid calls from residents of the city of Ras Ghareb to find a way to stop the frequent oil pollution on the shores of the city.The General Petroleum Company (G.P.C.) has caused oil pollution in Ras Ghareb beach in six different incidents, damaging the marine environment and the beach. A technical committee was formed in each incident to determine the financial value of the damage and a financial compensation, and prosecutors launched investigations into the incidents and interrogated the company’s officials.

U.S. sets sights on shipping companies for sanctions evasions - (Reuters) - The United States will target shipping companies that are in breach of sanctions and aggressively enforce measures across the globe to clamp down on such practices, a top U.S. official said on Wednesday. In one of the biggest sanctions actions taken by the U.S. government since its crackdown on Iranian oil exports, Washington imposed sanctions on Chinese companies in late September for alleged involvement in moving crude oil from Iran. COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian), a subsidiary of China’s state-owned shipping group COSCO, was one of the companies blacklisted. Concern over shippers falling foul of U.S. sanctions sent oil freight costs to record highs around the world, adding millions of dollars to the cost of every voyage. Washington has also used sanctions on other countries including Venezuela and North Korea. David Peyman, deputy assistant secretary of state for counter threat finance and sanctions, said ships were “the key artery to evade sanctions”. “If behavior doesn’t change, notwithstanding our very frank conversations and clear messages, then we do look toward fully and aggressively and consistently enforcing U.S. sanctions across the board as a means to change behavior of bad actors,” he told reporters on a visit to London.

OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking, lowers demand view - (Reuters) - OPEC will supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output of U.S. shale and other rival sources expands, the exporter group said, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion. OPEC’s production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to decline to 32.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024, the group said in its 2019 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday. That compares with 35 million bpd in 2019. Rising climate activism in the West and widening use of alternative fuels are putting the strength of long-term oil demand under more scrutiny. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its medium- and long-term oil demand forecasts in the report. OPEC supply has been falling in the last few years under a pact with Russia and other non-members to support the market. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. “Non-OPEC supply prospects have been revised up sharply, as U.S. tight oil, in particular, has again outperformed expectations,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo wrote in the foreword of the report, using another term for shale. The United States has pushed its oil output to record highs due to a shale revolution that allowed new technology to tap reserves previously deemed uneconomic. OPEC supply has declined as a result of voluntary curbs and U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran.

OPEC Braces For Drastic Drop In Oil Demand - OPEC admitted that demand for its oil over the next few years could be drastically weaker than it previously thought, due to a combination of a weakening economy, rising supply elsewhere, and pressure from climate activists.In its World Oil Outlook, OPEC said that demand for its oil may only reach 32.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2024, a figure that is substantially lower than the 35 mb/d from last year’s estimate. Demand is still expected to grow in non-OECD countries going forward, but OPEC admitted that demand may peak in the OECD in 2020.Slower economic growth also factored into the lower medium- and long-term estimates. “Given recent signs of stress in the global economy, and the outlook for global growth, at least in the short- and medium-term, the outlook for global oil demand has been lowered slightly this year to 110.6 mb/d by 2040,” OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in the report.OPEC said that non-OPEC production continues to rise, particularly from U.S. shale, although not exclusively. The cartel has had to restrain production for several years to keep prices from crashing, even in the face of relentless shale growth. U.S. shale is growing, but is now slowing dramatically. At the same time, countries such as Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana are expected to continue to add supplies in the next few years. Steady supply increases puts OPEC in a bind.Meanwhile, the attention paid to the risks of demand destruction in the OPEC report is notable. The phrase “climate change” appears nearly 50 times in the report and the cartel acknowledged that electric vehicles are “gaining momentum.” OPEC said it was “fully engaged and supportive of the Paris Agreement,” and that there is “no Planet B.” The group reiterated the urgent need for oil-exporting countries to diversify their economies, even as there is relatively scant evidence that OPEC member countries are actually doing so.  Indeed, OPEC is not exactly preparing for the end of the oil era. It still sees demand growing by around 12 mb/d over the next two decades, a scenario that would be utterly at odds with any viable chance to head off the climate crisis.

OPEC considers production cuts as the Aramco IPO complicates its December meeting - Saudi Arabia, Russia and their oil-producing allies are considering a range of options to maintain stability in the oil market just weeks ahead of a critical December meeting. The so-called OPEC+ group struck another deal late last year to cut oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices. The agreement runs until March 2020, and the producers are due to meet in Vienna to review the terms of the policy on December 5-6. “The house view is that the meeting is likely to reaffirm the group’s commitments to the cut that is already in place,” Peter Lee, senior oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” Thursday. “The current deal will remain in place until the end of Q1 (the first quarter) next year, and we see scope for the deal to be extended until the end of next year,” Lee added. Analysts believe that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is likely pressuring laggard members, such as Iraq and Nigeria, to improve their own compliance in order to bolster crude prices ahead of the long-awaited Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO). “According to delegates across the group, they will be pushing for better adherence to the current production cut agreement,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a research note on Thursday. But the need for deeper production cuts remains uncertain, given the slew of major events leading up to the December 5-6 Vienna meetings that could complicate the decision-making process. On December 3-4, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may come face-to-face at the NATO Heads of State and Government meeting in London. While the meeting and the location are not yet confirmed, a resolution to the trade war may prove to be a catalyst for oil prices and likely reduce the need for OPEC+ to act.

Oil edges down, eyes on data amid trade deal hopes - Oil rises on U.S.-China hopes, improved demand outlook - Oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by an improved outlook for crude demand as better-than-expected U.S. jobs growth added to market hopes a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal would be reached this month. Brent crude futures gained 47 cents to settle at $62.17 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate gained 34 cents or 0.6% to settle at $56.54. Both benchmarks traded near the highest in more than a month as market optimism about progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations propelled U.S. stock indexes to record highs on Monday, elevating oil. Energy shares gained the most of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump have been in continuous touch through “various means,” China said on Monday, when asked when and where the two leaders might meet to sign a trade deal. “Both sides (China and the United States) are talking up the trade deal to a large degree. And you have the Federal Reserve leaning into this better-looking economic situation, which lifts all boats,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. On Friday, prices jumped by about $2 a barrel after U.S. officials said a deal could be signed this month. Improved U.S. jobs growth numbers in October and the upward revisions of the two previous months, reported on Friday, also eased fears of a global economic slowdown that would slow crude demand, oil-market analysts said. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs last month, U.S. Labor Department data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 89,000 jobs in October. The economy also created 95,000 more jobs in August and September than previously estimated. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut last week and recent weakness in the U.S. dollar has also helped lift prices, analysts said. Demand for crude oil, which is traded in U.S. dollars, typically strengthens when the dollar weakens. “Easing monetary policy, along with improved chances of a U.S.-China trade deal, is pushing up oil markets. (Expectations of) improved demand is lifting prices,”

Brent oil ends at a more than 5-week high as China trade progress, Aramco IPO fuel optimism - Oil futures settled higher on Monday, with global benchmark Brent crude the highest in more than five weeks, as hope for a Sino-American trade resolution and Saudi Arabia’s plans to launch a public offering of Aramco helped to bolster sentiment in the energy complex. January Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 44 cents, or 0.7%, to finish at $62.13 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, its highest close since Sept. 26. It marked a 3.5% climb on Friday to leave its weekly decline last week at a slight 0.1%.West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 34 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $56.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with front-month contract prices logging the highest finish since Oct. 25, according to Dow Jones Market Data. WTI finished the week with a 0.8% weekly decline, despite a powerful jump on Friday for the U.S. oil contract and its global counterpart. Oil found support “on trade progress and after Saudi Arabia pulled the trigger on Aramco IPO,”   Saudi Arabia formally began an initial public offering on Sunday of a portion of Saudi Aramco after years of delays, with the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hoping for a $2 trillion valuation for the oil-processing facility. On top of that, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Bloomberg TV on Sunday that the U.S.-China trade deal was making progress and could be cemented soon. Along with a better-than-expected jobs report from the U.S. on Friday, those factors have combined to help lift the hope that demand for crude oil will remain healthy, amid signs of slack in economic expansion outside of the U.S.

Oil climbs to six-week high on signs of trade war resolution - Oil rose to a six-week high on mounting signs that a resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute is imminent. Futures advanced as much as 1.8% on Monday in New York. Chinese government officials are considering locations in the U.S. where leader Xi Jinping would meet U.S. President Donald Trump to sign a trade accord, people familiar with the plans said. The development may be the firmest signal yet that a truce is close at hand in the protracted trade war. U.S. stocks also surged. Positive economic data and rising bullish sentiment among money managers contributed to the upward momentum in crude futures. “We are revisiting optimism about a positive outcome for U.S.-China trade talks, amplified by speculative long positioning,” Despite two straight sessions of gains, futures still are down about 14% from a late April peak as the trade conflict between the world’s largest economies undermined demand for fuel to run trucks, cars, planes and trains. Among money managers invested in benchmark U.S. crude futures, net-long positions, or the difference between bullish and bearisg bets, rose 12% in the week ended Oct. 29, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose $0.73 to $56.93 a barrel at 10:20 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for January settlement added $0.81 to $62.50 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.48 premium to WTI for the same month. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is taking measures to help ensure a successful public offering of shares in the kingdom’s oil company. Taxes on the company have been reduced, incentives have been unveiled to entice investors to hold onto their shares, and dividends may be increased.

Oil Bulls Are Back As Crude Prices Inch Towards $60 - Oil prices moved higher at the start of the week as signs of a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China continue to gain steam and OPEC hints at making deeper production cuts. While bearish sentiment remains prevalent in oil markets, with OPEC revising down its oil demand projections once again, it seems that oil bulls are slowly returning and oil prices are creeping higher. OPEC said that demand for its oil will be lower than expected over the next five years, due to rising U.S. shale production. The group said that demand for its oil would average 32.8 mb/d by 2024, a sharp cut from the 35 mb/d in last year’s forecast. . The U.S. and China are expected to sign a partial trade deal later this month, and China is pressing the U.S. to remove more tariffs. The U.S. is already expected to delay the planned tariff hike in December, but markets are trading up on rising expectations that existing tariffs could be rolled back. After years of delay, Saudi Arabia finally gave the go-aheadfor the Aramco IPO. The prospectus for the company will be released on November 9, with the public offering launching in December. Saudi officials have long demanded a $2-trillion-dollar valuation, but most analysts believe that is overly-optimistic. Wall Street banks have given a wide range for the valuation. Goldman Sachs said Aramco could be worth somewhere between $1.6 and $2.3 trillion. A wave of investment in offshore oil drilling in the early part of this decade is coming online now, and many of the projectsmay not turn a profit because they were given the greenlight when oil prices traded at around $100 per barrel.  The source of the leak in the Keystone pipeline has still not been identified, according to U.S. regulators. There is no estimated timeline for a restart of the damaged pipeline. More than 9,000 barrels of oil spilled last week. Prices for Western Canada Select (WCS), a heavy blend of oil in Canada, fell sharply, dropping to a $22-per-barrel discount relative to WTI, the highest in nearly a year.

Oil edges lower amid doubts over OPEC cuts - Oil gains 1.2% on trade deal hopes, better demand outlook - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday on hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement and optimism that Washington could roll back some of the tariffs it has imposed on Chinese imports. Brent crude futures gained 84 cents to settle at $62.94 a barrel. U.S. crude futures gained 69 cents, or 1.22%, to settle at $57.23 a barrel. China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a so-called Phase 1 deal, which would help to ease the broad economic damage inflicted by the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest oil consumers. “If some of the existing tariffs were to be dismantled, that should restore some measure of global demand for oil as economic and trade conditions recover,” said Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the oil market outlook for 2020 may be brighter than previously forecast, appearing to downplay any need for deeper production cuts. “Based on the preliminary numbers, 2020 looks like it will have upside potential,” Barkindo told a briefing. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also said it would supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output increases from U.S. shale deposits and elsewhere. OPEC’s production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to decline to 32.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024, the group said in its 2019 World Oil Outlook. Investors are also awaiting U.S. inventory data due later on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen last week, while refined products stocks are likely to have declined, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Oil ends at 6-week high on optimism about demand after progress seen on trade deal - Oil futures rose Tuesday, with positive expectations around U.S.-China trade talks and a move further into record territory by U.S. stocks helping to lift global and U.S. benchmark crude prices to their highest settlements in six weeks. January Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 83 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $62.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery CLZ19, +2.18%  rose 69 cents, or 1.2%, to settle $57.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Both front-month WTI and Brent contracts posted their highest finish since Sept. 24, according to Dow Jones Market Data.WTI futures prices gained “on optimism over China/U.S. trade talks, and a certain degree of correlation to all-time highs in U.S. equities,” said Robert Yawger, director for energy at Mizuho Securities U.S.A., in a note.U.S. benchmark stock indexes were trading higher Tuesday as oil futures settled, with major U.S. equity indexes — the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite  looking to notch another record finish.  Reports the U.S. might roll back tariffs on $112 billion worth of Chinese imports as a concession to seal a “phase one” trade deal was credited with buoying sentiment across markets.“All-time highs in U.S. equities imply a certain degree of positive demand construction,” Yawger said.In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday said it expects oil supplies to fall continuously over the next five years, indicating the cartel might need to further cut output to stabilize prices on the back of a U.S. production boom and sluggish oil demand. OPEC and its allies are set to debate whether to continue current production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day or deepen the reductions when they meet in early December. Oil traders also waited for the latest weekly figures on U.S. petroleum supplies, with trade group the American Petroleum Institute scheduled to release its figures late Tuesday. Data from the Energy Information Administration will be issued early Wednesday.

WTI Slides After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Build - Oil prices surged to six-week highs today amid increasing US-China trade-deal optimism. “The U.S. seems more willing to roll back existing tariffs and the fact that they’re talking about that and looking to get something done for this phase-1 deal is going to move oil,” said Josh Graves, senior market strategist at RJ O’Brien & Associates in Chicago. “If everything stays the course and nothing changes in regards to the trade deal, you’re going to continue to see buying interest in the market.” But for now, the algos only have eyes for supply... API

• Crude +4.26mm (+2mm exp)
• Cushing +1.3mm
• Gasoline -4.0mm
• Distillates -1.6mm

After last week's surprise crude build, analysts expected more of the same, and API reported an even bigger than expected crude build of 4.26mm (vs 2mm exp). Products saw another notable draw (5th week in a row) and Cushing stocks rose for the 5th straight week... WTI was trading around $57.20 heading into the API print and slipped lower after the bigger than expected crude build...

Oil lower on US crude build, weak euro zone data - Oil prices declined on Wednesday, pulled down by a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocks and weak euro zone economic figures, after gaining for three sessions on expectations of an easing in U.S.-China trade tensions. Brent crude was down 26 cents, or 0.5%, at $62.67 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents to $57.11 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1 to 440.5 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. That was nearly triple analysts’ forecast for an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Official data from the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday. “Oil prices are slightly under pressure following API’s larger-than-expected crude build on Tuesday. Market participants will closely monitor if the build is confirmed by the EIA later today, considering that last week API had a crude draw and the EIA a crude build,” said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS. The United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, are working to narrow their differences enough to sign a “phase one” trade deal as early as this month to resolve a trade war that has slowed global growth. Data on Wednesday showed Germany’s services sector barely grew in October, while euro zone business activity expanded slightly faster than expected last month, but remained close to stagnation. Adding to Middle East tensions, Iran started to inject uranium gas into centrifuges at an underground nuclear facility, further distancing itself from a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers that curbed its atomic work. Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump exited the deal and renewed sanctions on Tehran, slashing Iran’s economically vital crude oil sales by more than 80%. “Alongside the continued rolling back of its nuclear commitments, the OPEC nation may be tempted to cause further supply disruptions in the Middle East in a bid to drive up prices,”  “Accordingly, conditions are ripe for tensions in the region to escalate and for the geopolitical risk premium to strike back with a vengeance.”

Oil Extends Losses On Reports OPEC+ Producers Won't Cut Production Deeper - Bloomberg reports that the biggest producers in OPEC+ aren’t pushing for deeper oil-supply cuts when the group meets next month, according to delegates across the coalition. OPEC is anticipating a supply glut in the first half of next year and prices are already lower than most members need to balance their budgets. And WTI is extending losses from the inventory build. As we detailed earlier, a bigger than expected crude build reported by API overnight sparked selling in oil prices but since the US equity market opened, WTI has been panic-bid presumably on yet another round of optimism that trade tensions between the U.S. and China are easing, potentially alleviating downward pressure on the global economy.  DOE

• Crude +7.929mm (+2mm exp)
• Cushing +1.714mm
• Gasoline -2.828mm
• Distillates -622k

For the second week in a row, crude inventories rose significantly (along with stocks at Cushing) as product inventories dropped for the 6th straight week...  US crude production hovered near record highs despite the rapid decline in US oil rig counts...  WTI traded around $57.60 ahead of the DOE data but tumbled on the big build...

Oil market edgy on US crude build, trade deal angst - Oil prices trod water on Thursday after losses in the previous session, as traders were cautious amid concerns over a potential delay in sealing a long-awaited interim U.S.-China trade deal and a huge increase of U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures were down 3 cents, at $61.71 a barrel by 0348 GMT after settling down $1.22 per barrel, or almost 2% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $56.29 a barrel, down 2 cents, from their last close. They settled 88 cents lower, or 1.54%, in the previous session. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose 7.9 million barrels last week as refiners cut output and exports fell, beating analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Gasoline and distillate inventories dropped 2.8 million barrels and by 622,000 barrels respectively. “The inventory builds and drops in exports is likely related to the COSCO sanctions,” referring to the Chinese tanker firm the United States sanctioned, among others, in late September for alleged involvement in moving crude oil from Iran. U.S. crude exports fell nearly 1 million barrels last week to 2.4 million barrels per day. “The sanctions are coming back to haunt oil bulls as a trifecta of negativity if you include the probable delay in signing the Phase one trade deal” between the world’s top two economies and biggest oil consumers, Innes said. A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an interim deal could be delayed until December as talks continue over terms and venue, a senior official of the Trump administration told Reuters on Wednesday. Expectations for a thaw in trade tensions have supported oil prices over the past several sessions.

Oil Prices Bounce Back - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices returned to positive territory Thursday, buoyed by optimism on the international trade front. The December WTI contract gained 80 cents Thursday, settling at $57.15 per barrel. The light crude marker peaked at $57.88 and bottomed out at $56.27. Brent crude for January delivery settled at $62.29 per barrel, reflecting a 55-cent increase for the day. “Oil prices were boosted by the potential resolution of the U.S.-China trade dispute, which has already been weighing on Chinese oil demand growth, as well as having knock-on effects on global demand,” said Anish Kapadia, U.K.-based oil and gas analyst with Akap Energy Ltd. “On the supply side there is a growing realization that U.S. liquids growth in 2020 is likely to be lower than current forecasts as publicly traded E&Ps set out their 2020 drilling plans.” Kapadia added that OPEC – concerned about an oil market oversupply next year – may not decide to pursue further production cuts at its December meeting but will likely heavily emphasize stronger compliance. Campbell Faulkner, senior vice president and chief data analyst at the interdealer commodities broker OTC Global Holdings, said phasing out tariffs as a result of a potential U.S.-China trade deal would counter a negative economic outlook. “This bodes well for a global economy which has been battling weaker expectations and declining indicators,” said Faulkner, adding a caveat. “But, oil as always remains ready to surprise with any uncertainty either economic or political instability.”

Oil slips on uncertainty over US-China trade deal, surging inventories Crude oil futures fell on Friday amid lingering uncertainty on whether, and when, the United States and China will agree a long-awaited deal to end their bitter trade dispute, the gloom compounded by rising crude inventories in the United States. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 16 cents, or 0.3%, at $62.13 a barrel by 0259 GMT, after gaining 0.9% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $56.92 a barrel. The contract rose 1.4% on Thursday. The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. On Thursday, the Chinese commerce ministry said the two countries have agreed in the past two weeks to cancel trade tariffs in different phases, without giving a timeline. But that comment was shrouded in doubt soon after when Reuters reported that the plan faces stiff internal opposition in the U.S. administration. “Oil is in pause mode as traders await more details on the trade talks,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader. Also concentrating minds among sector watchers were remarks by OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo this week that he was more optimistic about the outlook for 2020 because of potentially positive developments on trade disputes, appearing to downplay any need to cut output more deeply. A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, such as Russia, is limiting supplies until March next year. The producers meet on Dec. 5-6 in Vienna to review that policy. Barkindo’s comments are “spooking the market, especially in the face of the seemingly never-ending run of U.S. inventory builds,” U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply last week as refineries cut output and exports dropped, while refined products extended a multi-week drawdown, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude Oil Futures End Slightly Higher -- Crude oil futures settled modestly higher on Friday despite higher crude inventories and renewed uncertainty about U.S.-China trade deal. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended up $0.09, or 0.2%, at $57.24 a barrel. On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures ended up $0.80, or 1.4%, at $57.15 a barrel. WTI crude oil futures gained about 1.9% in the week. Brent Crude oil futures ended up $0.26, at $62.56 a barrel. Oil prices edged lower earlier in the session, weighed down by comments by the U.S. President Donald Trump that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump's comments came after both the U.S. and China said on Thursday that they have agreed to roll back tariffs on each other's goods if the interim trade deal is completed. However, subsequent reports said Trump's key advisers were opposing the proposal to cut tariffs on Chinese goods. According to Baker Hughes, the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil dropped by 7 to 684 this week, falling for the third successive week. The total active U.S. rig count, meanwhile, also fell by 5 to 817, according to the data released. Data released by the Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning said crude oil stockpiles increased by 7.9 million barrels in the week ended November 1, more than five times the expected increase.

Oil ends the week higher, shrugging off inventory build and trade uncertainty - Oil prices pared losses on Friday, ultimately finishing the session higher while also posting a gain for the week. Earlier in the session prices fell more than 1% following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 26 cents to settle at $62.56 a barrel, after gaining 0.9% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 9 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at a 6-week high of $57.24. Prices pared losses in midday trade, after Brent reached a session low of $60.66 a barrel and WTI sank to $55.76 a barrel. “Given the volatility around the U.S.-China trade saga, it’s hard to be short over the weekend,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “The turn of a phrase could restore the very hopes that were dashed just last night over a deal being struck.” The 16-month trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. Oil prices fell earlier on Friday after Trump told reporters he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China but that Beijing would like him to do so. The comments come after officials from both countries on Thursday said China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed. Yet Reuters reported on Thursday the plan faced stiff internal opposition in the U.S. administration. U.S. officials have signaled opposing views on the status of talks. Oil prices have also been under pressure since OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said this week that he was more optimistic about the outlook for 2020, appearing to downplay any need to cut output more deeply. A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, such as Russia, will limit supplies until March next year. The producers meet on Dec. 5-6 in Vienna to review that policy. “Even if a partial (U.S.-China) agreement is reached, the impetus for demand will not be enough to avoid an oversupply next year, meaning that OPEC will still need to make bigger production cuts,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Saudi Aramco kick-starts what could be world's biggest IPO, offers scant details (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s giant state oil company finally kick-started its initial public offering (IPO) on Sunday, announcing its intention to float on the domestic bourse in what could be the world’s biggest listing as the kingdom seeks to diversify its economy away from oil. But in its long-awaited announcement, Aramco, the world’s most profitable company, offered few specifics on the number of shares to be sold, pricing or the date for a launch. Bankers have told the Saudi government that investors will likely value the company at around $1.5 trillion, below the $2 trillion valuation touted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when he first floated the idea of an IPO nearly four years ago. Aramco also did not mention what measures it has taken to beef up security following unprecedented attacks on its oil plants in September. Sources have told Reuters the oil company could offer 1%-2% of its shares on the local bourse, raising as much as $20 billion to $40 billion. A deal over $25 billion would top the record-breaking one of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA.N) in 2014. “Today is the right opportunity for new investors to reap the benefits of Aramco’s ability to achieve value, and boost it on the long-term,” Aramco Chairman Yasir al-Rumayyan told a news conference at the company’s headquarters in the eastern city of Dhahran. Confirmation of the sale of shares in the oil giant, whose formal name is Saudi Arabian Oil Co, comes about seven weeks after the crippling attacks on its oil facilities, underlining Saudi Arabia’s determination to push on with the listing regardless.

Saudi Arabia formally announces Aramco IPO with a domestic listing set for December— The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially launched its initial public offering (IPO) for its state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco on Sunday, announcing that a domestic listing will happen in December. The kingdom’s market regulator approved the listing early Sunday but exact details surrounding the size and scope of the IPO remain unknown. In a statement from Saudi Aramco, the company said “the final offer price, number of shares to be sold and percentage of the shares to be sold will be determined at the end of the book-building period.” Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said in a statement that the company’s vision “is to be the world’s pre-eminent integrated energy and chemicals company.” “Our mission is to provide our shareholders with long-term value creation through crude oil price cycles by maintaining our pre-eminence in oil and gas production, capturing additional value across the hydrocarbon value chain and profitably growing our portfolio,” he said. In a follow-up press conference on Sunday, Nasser said the company’s IPO prospectus would be released on November 9 and told CNBC that the listing of Aramco was to help diversify the economy, and was a way to strengthen the domestic Tadawul exchange by attracting both domestic and international investment. “For us, as Saudi Aramco, I think we are proud of the listing of Aramco. It will increase our visibility internationally. We are a very strong company. By sharing a lot of information, as required by any listed company, there will be a lot of analysts that will review our data and compare it with other listed companies, and we would love to have that kind of comparisons, because we are a company that are proud of our results,” he said.

Saudi Aramco IPO- World's most profitable company to go public - Saudi Aramco has confirmed it is planning to list on the Riyadh stock exchange, in what could be the world's biggest initial public offering (IPO). The state-owned oil giant will determine the IPO launch price after registering interest from investors. Business sources say the Saudis are expected to make shares available for 1% or 2% of the firm, and the offer will be for existing company shares. Saudi Aramco is thought to be worth about $1.2tn (£927bn).  The firm said it has no current plans for a foreign share listing, saying long-discussed plans for a two-stage IPO including an offering on a foreign exchange had been put aside for now. "For the (international) listing part, we will let you know in due course. So far it's only on Tadawul," Aramco chair Yasir al-Rumayyan told a media conference, referring to the Saudi stock exchange. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at derivatives traders IG Group, said: "Investing in Aramco carries risks, of course, and not only that oil prices will struggle to move higher. "Political and strategic risks are high for any firm operating in the region, not least one which is an arm of the Saudi state. Aramco also has limited control in output policy, a key part of Saudi Arabia's Opec management." Those potential risks were highlighted in September when drone attacks hit the Abqaiq oil facility and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia, both owned by Aramco. But Aramco boss Amin Nasser, who called the plans "historic", told a media conference after the IPO statement was published that the firm was still the most reliable oil company globally. In its launch announcement Aramco said: "The company does not expect the impact of these attacks to have a material impact on its business, financial condition or results of operations." 

The Saudi Aramco IPO may miss its $2 trillion valuation target by more than $700 billion - Saudi Aramco officially kicked off its long-awaited IPO on Sunday, and Saudi officials have valued the oil-giant at up to $2 trillion, which would be the the largest IPO on record. However, several banks are putting their estimates much lower than that, with some valuations nearly $800 billion less than the $2 trillion figure. According to analysis sent to potential investors seen by Bloomberg, banks involved in the listing are finding it hard to pinpoint a value for Saudi Aramco. Bank of America's valuation, for example, ranges from $1.22 trillion to $2.27 trillion.Bloomberg noted that the $1 trillion gap in value would be able to fit the combined market capitalizations of Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Shell combined.  Goldman Sachs valued Aramco at $1.6 trillion to $2.3 trillion, with Bloomberg citing the bank as saying to investors that "our suggested valuation framework is based on a long-term analysis and it is not linked to a near-term assessment of the likely performance of the company's shares." HSBC put the value between $1.59 trillion and $2.1 trillion, according to Bloomberg, while French bank BNP Paribas gave an incredibly specific figure of $1.424394 trillion. Saudi Aramco on Sunday said that it would be listing shares on the Arabian Tadawul All Exchange based in Riyadh. The mostprofitable company in the world didn't say how much of its shares will list initially, although reports from Reuters last week put it at 1% to 2%. It is due, however, to release a detailed prospectus on November 9, according to Bloomberg.

The ARAMCO IPO Stumbles Out The Door -  Finally after numerous delays, the potentially largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) of stock has finally become for fully state-owned ARAMCO in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).  MOst of the delays had involved an unwillingness by the Saudi royal family to publicize financial and other factual details about the company, although issuing an IPO for 5 percent of the company was a part of the Vision 2030 plan of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). As it is, for the time being the IPO is only available to Saudi nationals through the Riyadh stock exchange.  It is unclear how long or even if it will open up to foreigners.  Reportedly the Saudis are hoping for it to value  the company at $2 trillion, which would put it well ahead of Apple and Microsoft, both of which are around $1 trillion.  But some observers think this is overly optimistic on the part of the Saudis for a variety of reasons. Along with that, the US has this past month for the first time since 1978 recorded a trade surplus in petroleum products.  This will continue to put  downward pressure on global oil prices, and also depress the prospects for how much money this IPO will raise in the end.

Saudi Aramco's IPO Will Not Save Kingdom -Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has staked his country’s future on selling a 5% stake in Saudi Aramco, the most valuable asset it has. And it is his hope that this IPO will help finance the country’s turnaround making it less dependent on oil revenue.It’s been trying to do this for three years and was ready to pull the trigger when the Houthi rebels in North Yemen pulled theirs and damaged major Aramco facilities at Ab Qaiq in August. The IPO itself was off the table until next year but the Saudis have officially put it back on the table, submitting the necessary paperwork to make the sale. What’s held up this IPO has been MbS’s insistence on a $2 trillion valuation while playing very coy about the company’s actual assets and reserves. It took a couple of rounds of failed book-runner commitments to finally get the Saudis to offer some glimpse at Aramco’s finances.From Irina Slav at Oilprice.com in March 2019: Aramco has never published financial reports. Although there were assurances that it will start doing so ahead of the IPO, to date the latest entry on Aramco’s Corporate Reports page is from July 20 last year, and includes production figures for 2016. Last year, sources had told Reuters the company was planning to start publishing financial reports early this year, but this has not happened yet.By April, Aramco finally produced financial numbers that were reasonably current and even Bloomberg was skeptical of this $2 trillion valuation. It certainly wasn’t true when oil prices were in the gutter below $40 a barrel in 2016. The Aramco IPO is the lynchpin to MbS’s Vision 2030 plan to remake and upgrade the Kingdom’s economy away from just being a Gas Station in the Desert that buys U.S. weapons and wages regional wars through proxies.But now that the paperwork has been filed and the IPO likely to happen we now have a bevy of financial research reports coming out with their assessments of it.And the numbers are all over the place. Here they are via Zerohedge:

• BofA’s low valuation of the company is at $1.22 trillion with a high estimate of $2.27 trillion, the gap is enormous and has spooked some investors.
• Goldman Sachs values Aramco between $1.6 trillion and $2.3 trillion.  Much of Goldman Sach’s valuation of the oil company is derived from an average oil price of $64.50 for 2019, and $60 per barrel from 2020 through 2023.
• EFG Hermes has a valuation of $1.55 trillion to $2.1 trillion, several fund managers told Reuters.
• Bernstein’s research deck valued Aramco around $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
• HSBC, one of the lead underwriters of the IPO, values the oil company between $1.59 trillion to $2.1 trillion.
• BNP Paribas, another bank playing a critical role in the IPO, values Aramco around $1.42 trillion.

But let’s back up here for a second and remember what MbS was originally selling, 20% of the company for $400 billion. Now it’s 5% of the company for likely between $65 and $75 billion at a $1.3 to $1.5 trillion valuation.It’s not the company’s performance MbS is worried about. It is how much this IPO will bring the government in the form of dividends to pay for its operations. Remember, the Kingdom is currently running a budget deficit of 6.5% in 2020, up from 4.7% for this year officially. That’s $50 billion next year alone. Debt to GDP, which was just 1.4% in 2014 will rise to 28% in 2020. Aramco needs to either raise production or get higher prices to stem this bleeding. Neither of these things are on the table in the near future.

In Latest Saudi Shakedown, Aramco Taps Prince Al-Waleed For IPO Money --Back in November 2017, a number of prominent Saudi Arabian princes, government ministers, and business people were arrested in Saudi Arabia a few weeks after the creation of an anti-corruption committee led by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Among them was one of Saudi Arabia's wealthiest men, billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who along with the other arrested individuals was confined in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and was only released months later after he pledged an unknown amount of money to the Saudi treasury. While the Crown Prince dubbed the arrests an anti-corruption exercise, it was plain that Saudi Arabia, then facing a gaping budget deficit had engaged in nothing short of a massive extortive shakedown. Two years later Saudi Arabia is engaging in a similar shakedown, only this time instead of very broad "uses of funds", it hopes to narrow down the extorted money solely for one purpose - to get more "willing" Aramco anchor investors.And just like in 2017, Prince Al-Waleed - one of the largest investors in Twitter - is once again in the crosshairs.   As Bloomberg reports, one day after China tentatively agreed to invest $5 to $10 billion in the Aramco mega IPO which has so far found precisely zero anchor investors, Saudi Arabia was "negotiating commitments" from its wealthiest citizens to buy stock in the Aramco initial public offering. Translation: MbS gave his oligarchs a choice - invest in Aramco, or spend some more time in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton. Among those Riyadh has reportedly approached include the Olayan family and Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal to low-profile tycoons in the oil producer’s backyard.Following polite but stern and "convincing" discussions with MbS and his goon squad, the billionaire Olayans, who own a major stake in Credit Suisse, are said to be considering buying several hundred million U.S. dollars worth of Aramco shares, according to the people. Prince Alwaleed - who knows too well what happens if he disagrees with the Crown Prince - has also "held talks" to commit a significant amount to the IPO. Many others have also been ordered to "volunteer" their funds for the upcoming IPO according to Bloomberg: Aramco representatives have been seeking an investment from the Almajdouie family, whose businesses range from distributing Hyundai cars in the kingdom to a large logistics operation. They have also approached members of the Al-Turki clan, who are involved in fields from real estate to general trading, food distribution and ports.

In Saudi Arabia, Twitter Has Become a Tool to Crack Down on Dissent -  - The Saudi government’s attempts to control Twitter have mirrored a broader crackdown on dissent in the kingdom U.S. charges that Saudi Arabia used Twitter Inc. employees to illegally spy on social-media users are the latest allegations that authorities in the kingdom have used the platform’s popularity to crack down on critics. Saudis once embraced Twitter as a platform for free expression in a country where the government controlled traditional media. But the U.S. Justice Department’s allegations on Wednesday further highlight the shrinking space for criticism under de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Rebuilding Syria – without Syria’s oil - Pepe Escobar -- What happened in Geneva this Wednesday, in terms of finally bringing peace to Syria, could not be more significant: the first session of the Syrian Constitutional Committee.The Syrian Constitutional Committee sprang out of a resolution passed in January 2018 in Sochi, Russia, by a body called the Syrian National Dialogue Congress.The 150-strong committee breaks down as 50 members of the Syrian opposition, 50 representing the government in Damascus and 50 representatives of civil society. Each group named 15 experts for the meetings in Geneva, held behind closed doors.This development is a direct consequence of the laborious Astana process – articulated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Essential initial input came from former UN Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura. Now UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen is working as a sort of mediator.The committee started its deliberations in Geneva in early 2019.Crucially, there are no senior members of the administration in Damascus nor from the opposition – apart from Ahmed Farouk Arnus, who is a low-ranking diplomat with the Syrian Foreign Ministry.Among the opposition, predictably, there are no former leaders of weaponized factions. And no “moderate rebels.” The delegates include several former and current parliament members, university rectors and journalists.After this first round, significantly, the committee’s co-chair, Ahmad Kuzbari, said: “We hope that our next meeting could take place in our native land, in our beloved Damascus, the oldest continuously inhabited capital in history.”Even the opposition, which is part of the committee, hopes that a political deal will be clinched next year. According to co-chair Hadi al-Bahra: “I hope that the 75th anniversary of the United Nations next year will be an opportunity to celebrate another achievement by the universal organization, namely the success of efforts under the auspices of a special envoy for political process, who will bring peace and justice to all Syrians.” The committee’s work in Geneva proceeds in parallel to ever-changing facts on the ground. These will certainly force more face-to-face negotiations between Presidents Putin and Erdogan, as Erdogan himself confirmed: “A conversation with Putin can take place any time. Everything depends on the course of events.”

How The Russian-Turkish Deal On Northern Syria Works -The agreement signed between Russia and Turkey for a new security plan in northeast Syria was certainly historic and a much welcome potential path towards stability and peace.The following graphic illustrates how it is supposed to work:  Source   On October 22, 2019, Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum on safe-zones in Syria, putting an end to the Turkish offensive iun Northern Syria against Kurdish forces and restoring Syrian government control over a large portion of the border with Turkey. The deal was welcomed by the government in Damascus and by the Kurds.

Why The Kurds Still Don’t Have a Country - Since U.S. troops left their region, roughly 180,000 Kurds of northeastern Syria have been displaced, and over 200 have been killed. Those Kurds, soldiers who’d battled the Islamic State and families, had hoped to secure a future Kurdistan state in areas now targeted by Turkish warplanes and patrolled by Russian mercenaries.This is only the latest reversal for the Kurds, a group of around 40 million who identify with a regional homeland and common historical background, but are now divided between four countries. Despite their many attempts, there’ve never won and kept a Kurdish nation. The most decisive reversal came at the end of the first World War. That’s when the Allies, victors over Germany and the Ottoman Empire, divided their geographical spoils of war. In a series of conferences in a succession of European palaces, Prime Minister David Lloyd George, Georges Clemenceau of France, Woodrow Wilson and dozens of other leaders conspired, harangued and horse-traded from 1919 to 1921. Under clouds of cigar smoke, between servings of foie gras and champagne, they redrew a large swath of the globe’s map.  What to do in the big, central zone of the defeated Ottoman Empire, stretching between the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf? Should there be one big, Greater Arabia or Arab federation, as some British officials promisedtheir Arab allies who revolted against the Ottomans? Should there be many little nations, with borders around Christian Arabs, Muslim Arabs, Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds? (Following theirrace-nation instinct, the British did support what they called a new “National Home for the Jewish people” in former Ottoman Palestine.) That, too, is what President Woodrow Wilson’s call for self-determination dictated. Wilson himself was explicit in calling for a new, broadly encompassing Kurdistan.They took for granted that Kurds were a race and that Kurdistan was a place. In fact, it was already depicted in pre-WWI atlases. The problem of drawing its borders fell, British Parliamentarians told themselves, to them in immediate postwar years. And it’s what some powerful people in British officialdom assumed would happen.Not only did it fit British race thinking to create Kurdistan – to be heavily staffed by British “advisers”like the other new states, of course – but they believed the Kurds truculent and independent, unlikely to accede to domination by a neighbor. But British imperial self-interest in this case overruled ethnonational thinking. By the terms of the Sykes-Picot agreement, the secret French and British understanding of roughly who would get what after the war, the French claimed dominance of the northern Levant, what’s today Lebanon and Syria.The British wanted a big geographical bloc in the region to match that of the French, to act as a counterweight. They formalized this by inventing a large country soon dubbed “Iraq.” The line dividing Sykes-Picot’s French sphere and British sphere already cut straight through Kurdish areas. That partition was part of the reason why the British could not simply carve out a new, large Kurdistan (that they’d dominate like Iraq).

US pours back to military bases in northeast Syria - American troops are pouring back to military bases in northeastern Syria which were evacuated by the U.S. Army during Turkey's anti-terror operation. According to Anadolu Agency reporters on the ground, the U.S. Army arrived Saturday back in the west of Syria’s northern province of Raqqa to rebuild its military base, which was evacuated during Operation Peace Spring. A military convoy, including a personnel carrier armored vehicle, a mine flail and a utility vehicle, dispatched by the U.S., arrived in Jazira base located west of Raqqa province via the northeastern Syrian province of Al-Hasakah. Nearly 30 U.S. soldiers were also seen in the convoy heading to Jazira base. Also, the U.S. troops Friday was positioned on a military base in northern Syria’s Sarrin village in the south of Ayn al-Arab, or Kobani. The U.S. military bases in Sarrin and Sabit villages around 30 kilometers (18 miles) south of the Turkey-Syria border was previously evacuated and destroyed during Turkey's Operation Peace Spring. U.S. troops on Friday also resumed patrols near oil fields in northeastern Syria after an intermission following the launch of Turkey's anti-terror Operation Peace Spring.

First Images Of US Troops Occupying Syria's Oil Fields Stir Outrage - The reality of American foreign policy all in one stunning image: regional Iraqi Kurdistan24 television has broadcast the first footage of the United States Army seizing and 'protecting' a Syrian oil field in the country's northeast.  Specifically the images are of a US armed convoy at Rumelan oil field, and are the first to show Trump's ordered "secure the oil" policy in action. A Salon op-ed aptly quips in reaction: "It’s about the oil, stupid: Trump wants to end the forever wars, except the one about oil and money."     US forces began patrols at oilfields on Mount Qarachokh near Derik in northeastern #Syria on Friday. #TwitterKurds pic.twitter.com/UjdCn6FFVL — Kurdistan 24 English (@K24English) November 2, 2019  Middle East war correspondent Jenan Moussa, who has covered the Iraq war and other US occupations in the region, voiced the growing outrage over the US resource theft underway in Syria:  Since discovery of oil in the MidEast, many in the region said: the U.S. is only here to steal our oil. U.S. denied it, and claimed it's about democracy, human rights, women etc.  Not sure if Americans realize but these pictures of U.S. troops in northeast Syria are HUGELY damaging to U.S. image.Since discovery of oil in MidEast, many in region said: U.S. only here to steal our oil.U.S. denied, claimed it's about democracy, human rights, women etc.Not sure if Americans realize but these pictures of U.S. troops in northeast Syria are HUGELY damaging to U.S. image. pic.twitter.com/C3exwUbHtD — Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) November 2, 2019 One Syrian commentator said sarcastically on social media:  The Few. The Proud. The Marines. stealing Syria’s oil.  And further pointed out that, "Trump just showed you the naked truth about US foreign policy in the Middle East."

US Constructing Two New Bases In Syria's Oil-Rich Region- Report - Turkey's state-run media is reporting the United States is planning two new military bases in Syria's oil-rich Deir ez-Zor province, which are currently under construction, after US special forces convoys were seen patrolling the area in the past days.  Anadolu Agency, citing local sources, said the bases were under construction as evidenced by the influx of heavy equipment: While the footage captured by Anadolu Agency showed that much construction equipment is being put into action, it was learnt the U.S. has sent 250 to 300 additional soldiers, armored vehicles, heavy weapons and ammunition to the region.The reported added: “The military bases are being built in the 113th Brigade area and near al-Sur region,” according to the sources.Syria's largest oil fields, which historically account for most of its domestic energy needs, are located in Deir Ezzor, including Al-Omar, Conoco, and Rumeilan. A US coalition statement confirmed last week that American forces are being "repositioned" in Syria's oil rich region just east of the Euphrates to "protect critical infrastructure" - following Trump's roll out of his controversial "secure the oil" plan. Days ago Russia accused the United States of stealing what rightfully belongs to the Syrian government and people, with Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov alleging earlier that US government agencies received over $30 million a month in oil production in Syria.According to various reports in last several days US forces were spotted in the following locations in Syria, either patrolling near oil (Rmelan), deploying Bradleys (Deir Ezzor region) or on the road with trucks (i.e to Sarrin and back) pic.twitter.com/FJgQ6HoLNo— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) November 4, 2019 In response to Tuesday's Turkish media reports on the establishment of two new American military bases east of the Euphrates, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said, "Any actions whatsoever – we are not talking about anything in particular now – that the United States undertake to keep themselves militarily present in Syria are unacceptable and illegal from our point of view and under international law."

How Controlling Syria's Oil Serves Washington's Strategic Objectives- Before the evacuation of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria to western Iraq, the Pentagon had 2,000 US forces in Syria. After the drawdown of US troops at Erdogan’s insistence in order for Ankara to mount a ground offensive in northern Syria, the US has still deployed 1,000 troops, mainly in oil-rich eastern Deir al-Zor province and at al-Tanf military base. Al-Tanf military base is strategically located in southeastern Syria on the border between Syria, Iraq and Jordan, and it straddles on a critically important Damascus-Baghdad highway, which serves as a lifeline for Damascus. Washington has illegally occupied 55-kilometer area around al-Tanf since 2016, and several hundred US Marines have trained several Syrian militant groups there. It’s worth noting that rather than fighting the Islamic State, the purpose of continued presence of the US forces at al-Tanf military base is to address Israel’s concerns regarding the expansion of Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Regarding the oil- and natural gas-rich Deir al-Zor governorate, it’s worth pointing out that Syria used to produce modest quantities of oil for domestic needs before the war – roughly 400,000 barrels per day, which isn’t much compared to tens of millions barrels daily oil production in the Gulf states. Although Donald Trump crowed in a characteristic blunt manner in a tweet after the withdrawal of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria that Washington had deployed forces in eastern Syria where there was oil, the purpose of exercising control over Syria’s oil is neither to smuggle oil out of Syria nor to deny the valuable source of revenue to the Islamic State. There is no denying the fact that the remnants of the Islamic State militants are still found in Syria and Iraq but its emirate has been completely dismantled in the region and its leadership is on the run. So much so that the fugitive caliph of the terrorist organization was killed in the bastion of a rival jihadist outfit, al-Nusra Front in Idlib, hundreds of kilometers away from the Islamic State strongholds in eastern Syria. Much like the “scorched earth” battle strategy of medieval warlords – as in the case of the Islamic State which early in the year burned crops of local farmers while retreating from its former strongholds in eastern Syria – Washington’s basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus.

US seizure of oil fields escalate tensions in Syria --The US has deployed hundreds of troops backed by armored vehicles into oil fields located in Syria’s northeastern Deir Ezzor province, where they are reportedly building two new bases. Turkish media have reported that large quantities of construction equipment and materials have been sent into the region, along with the troops, tanks, armored personnel carriers and ammunition. Pentagon officials defended the renewed deployment at a press briefing Thursday. However, they resolutely refused to answer questions about US President Donald Trump’s statements that the troops were there to “take the oil”, and Defense Secretary Esper’s acknowledgement last week that the US mission includes “denying access, preventing Russian or Syrian forces” from laying claim to the oil, including through the use of “overwhelming force”. The entire narrative put forward by the Pentagon was designed to erase the events of the past month, which began with Trump’s green-lighting of the Turkish invasion aimed at driving the SDF (whose main units are comprised of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, viewed by Ankara as a “terrorist” extension of Turkey’s own PKK Kurdish separatist movement) from the Turkish-Syrian border. This was followed by Trump’s statements that he was putting an end to Washington’s “endless wars” and would “let someone else fight over this long-bloodstained sand” as all US troops would be withdrawn from Syria. Just as his earlier statement in December 2018 that he was withdrawing US troops from Syria led to the resignation of his defense secretary, Gen. James Mattis, so last month’s announcement touched off a political firestorm in Washington, with denunciations of Trump's “betrayal of the Kurds” coming from both Democrats and Republicans, as well as large sections of the military brass and the US intelligence apparatus. In response, Trump shifted his position to a thuggish statement that US troops would remain in Syria to “take the oil” and that he was considering contracting ExxonMobil to exploit it. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad responded to these statements by praising Trump’s “transparency.” Previous US presidents, he said, “commit crimes, but get Nobel prizes, and act like defenders of human rights and the noble unique US values—or Western values—but they are a group of criminals who act on behalf of lobbies.” Trump, on the other hand declares “we want oil ... at least that’s honest,” he added. The Pentagon’s claim of a continuity in the US “mission” has some truth to it, having nothing to do with either a “war on ISIS” or protecting the Kurds. By seizing the oil fields of Deir Ezzor province, Washington aims to deny critical energy resources that are needed by the government in Damascus to reconstruct Syria’s war-ravaged infrastructure and economy. It has pursued this aim throughout the Syrian civil war, in which the Syrian Al Qaeda affiliate, the Al Nusra Front, first seized the oil fields, followed by ISIS and finally the Kurdish YPG militia. The US military took no action to stop either Al Qaeda or ISIS from exploiting the fields and shipping oil across the border to Turkey, reaping hundreds of millions of dollars used to finance their operations. It was the Russian forces that finally bombed both the fields and the tanker trucks used to transport the oil. The illegal US military occupation of the oil fields represents a direct provocation against Russia, which Syrian websites report has signed contracts with the Syrian government to extract oil, as well as China, which previously had oil investments in Syria and is poised to play a leading role in the country’s reconstruction.

Donald Trump’s Boneheaded Plan to Steal Syrian Oil  -President Donald Trump has rightly decided to remove U.S. military personnel out of a zone of potential conflict involving Syrians, Iranians, Turks, and Kurds. He’s dismissed calls to maintain American forces there to protect the latter, despite the imminent threat of attack against the Kurds by Ankara. Meddling in other nations’ civil wars, Trump thinks, risks American lives and security. Except then the president decided to deploy U.S. personnel to steal Syria’s oil. He announced that Washington would remain around al-Tanf in southern Syria to guard oil fields captured by the Kurds. Indeed, the number of Pentagon forces are expected to eventually number around 900, almost as many as the number withdrawn from the north. As some Americans leave, others are being deployed—to seize another nation’s resources. Indeed, the president said the U.S. will be “keeping the oil.” Defense Secretary Mark Esper explained that the U.S. would “maintain a reduced presence in Syria and deny ISIS access to oil revenue.” He dismissed any idea of confiscating the petroleum. However, ISIS does not possess forces capable of taking, transporting, and selling the oil. An unnamed official cited “other destabilizing actors,” presumably meaning the Assad government, which, though brutally repressive, is the most stable force in Syria today. The excuse is a sham. The president is being played by neoconservatives and other hawks who want Washington to take resources owned by the Syrian government to weaken it and, more important, keep America entangled in that country’s multiple conflicts. This policy is beyond shameful. It is foolish and counterproductive. It dramatically undermines Washington’s credibility while sucking the U.S. into a potential battle over nothing of consequence. Venal motives for military aggression are hardly unusual. However, governments rarely admit that they are acting for national profit. The Middle East has been a special case for some American hawks. As long as compliant Arab nations supplied low-cost energy, they saw little reason for military action. However, following the OPEC-driven run-up in oil prices and October 1973 Arab embargo against several Western nations, triggered by U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War, the idea of stealing oil gained traction.  The public hysteria was never justified. The embargo was ineffective, since the energy market is global. However, production cutbacks as well as domestic restrictions, which limited production, did hike prices. That caused economic hardship but posed no security threat. The price, adjusted for inflation, was comparable to today’s levels.

Iran has ‘military advantage over US and allies in Middle East' -- Iran now has an effective military advantage over the US and its allies in the Middle East because of its ability to wage war using third parties such as Shia militias and insurgents, according to a military thinktank. In one of the most detailed assessments of Iran’s strategy and doctrine across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concludes Iran’s “third party capability” has become Tehran’s weapon of choice. The 16-month IISS study called Iran’s Networks of Influence claims these networks are more important to Iranian power than either its ballistic missile program, putative nuclear plans or its conventional military forces. Overall, conventional military balance is still in favour of the US and its allies in the region, the report concludes, but the balance of effective force is now in Iran’s favour. Despite US sanctions, the report says, Iran has met little international resistance for its strategy, even if it is now facing a fresh challenge from anti-Iranian nationalist protesters within some of the countries in which it wields influence. The findings are likely to strengthen the position of Western diplomats who argue that any new nuclear deal with Iran will have to include not only updated constraints on the country’s nuclear program, but also commitments on its regional behaviour. The network, operating differently in most countries, has been designed, resourced and deployed by Tehran as its principal means of countering regional adversaries and international pressure, the IISS says. The policy “has consistently delivered Iran advantage without the cost or risk of direct confrontation with adversaries”. The report finds “Iran is fighting and winning wars ‘fought amongst the people’, not wars between states. Iran avoids symmetrical state-on-state conflict, knowing it will be outgunned. Instead, it pursues asymmetrical warfare through non-state partners.” The report claims the application of conventional force cannot counterbalance Iran’s sovereign capability over the past 40 years, since most conflicts in the Middle East are not defined by state-on-state warfare involving parity of forces subject to international law, “but are instead complex and congested battle spaces involving no rule of law or accountability, low visibility and multiple players who represent a mosaic of local and regional interests”. No state has been as active or as effective as Iran in regional conflicts in modern times. The total cost to the Iranian economy of its activities in Syria, Iraq and Yemen is $16bn (£12bn), the report calculates, while Lebanese Hezbollah receives $700m annually from Iran. Iran has developed its capability through the extraterritorial al-Quds force and enlistment of various militia – amounting to 200,000 fighters – and engaging in a “grey zone” of conflict that maintains hostilities below the threshold of state-on-state warfare.

ISIS Urges Followers To Unleash Wildfires On America & Europe -  - By all accounts, the Islamic State has gone 'underground' and its fighters on the run, especially following the death of terror chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The concern now amid renewed chaos in northern Syria due to Erdogan's 'Operation Peace Spring' is the potential for mass ISIS jail breaks — in some instances already occurring — as well as terrorists fleeing back across Turkey's notoriously porous southern border. There's also the question of ISIS taking refuge in Idlib, which its leader apparently did, also caught a mere three miles from the Turkish border.  And now, ISIS is signalling a new threat to Europe and the United States, as FOX reports this week:  At least four propaganda posters have appeared in recent months from the pro-ISIS media outlet Quraysh Media that have encouraged followers to "ignite fires" of their own, literally setting wildfires in the U.S. and Europe as a means of "waging jihad," according to the Middle East Media Research Institute [MEMRI]. MEMRI translated the poster as follows: "Oh monotheists [followers of ISIS], ignite fires in the forests and fields, and we are addressing especially those who live in Europe and America, for they are painful to them."The threatening posters have actually appeared over the past months, and began to gain more attention given the massively destructive wildfires which have raged over the past month in places like California and Lebanon. In the case of Lebanon, it should be noted, fires which came near the outskirts Beirut were specifically identified to be the result of arson. The subsequent series of "jihad posters" appeared in the early summer, and the most recent as late as Monday of this week. Some depict American firefighters struggling against out of control blazes. The latest poster (fourth in the series) threateningly names specific countries which should be targeted by ISIS followers in arson attacks.  "Ignite fires in the forests of America, France, Britain and Germany, for they are painful to them," the text reads, according to MEMRI.

Iraq: Anti-government protesters hold largest rally since demonstrations began - DW - Protesters packed into central Baghdad on Friday in the largest anti-government protest since the demonstrations erupted a month ago. Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square, many waving Iraqi flags and demanding that the government resign and that parliament be dissolved.  Several thousand protesters also blocked roads leading to the country's main Gulf port of Umm Qasr, preventing trucks carrying goods from entering or leaving the area. Security forces used live rounds and tear gas against the crowds overnight in an effort to clear the blockade. An estimated 350 people were wounded in Friday's demonstration after security forces fired rubber bullets and gas grenades to push protesters away from bridges leading to the Green Zone, the seat of Iraq's government. Since the first wave of protests began in early October, at least 250 people have been killed while an estimated 10,000 people have been injured by security forces. Demonstrators in Baghdad on Friday also harshly criticized Iran's involvement in Iraqi affairs, as Iraq's top cleric warned foreign actors against interfering in the protests.In his weekly sermon, powerful Shiite cl eric Ali al-Sistani said Iraq must not be dragged into the "abyss of infighting.""No person or group, no side with a particular view, no regional or international actor may seize the will of the Iraqi people and impose its will on them," he said in an apparent reference to Iran.Iran emerged as a major power broker in Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Tehran backs Iraq's current government and maintains close ties with state-backed militias. What began as protests against corruption, lack of jobs and poor access to electricity and clean water have now grown into calls for an overhaul of Iraq's political system — which has been in place since Saddam Hussein's ouster.Something that has made the protests unique in Iraq's history is that public anger is not only being directed at the political elite, but the religious elite as well. No one represents the people, not Iran, not the parties, not the clerics. We want to take back our country," Ali Ghazi, a protester in Baghdad told news agency AFP on Thursday.

Iraq clashes leave 5 dead as anti-government protesters storm Baghdad - Clashes between Iraqi security forces and anti-government protesters Monday left at least five people dead in the country’s capital, as the sounds of gunfire could be heard echoing through Baghdad’s streets. Demonstrators trying to breach bridges leading to the heavily fortified Green Zone, where the government is headquartered, were met with live fire, tear gas and water cannons after hurling rocks at security forces, according to witnesses. They later appeared to have crossed the bridge and reached the headquarters of Iraq's state-run TV on the other side, while also pushing to within 500 yards of the prime minister’s office, the Associated Press reported.  At least five demonstrators and a member of the security forces were killed in the skirmishes and another 60 people were wounded, police and hospital officials say. Tens of thousands of Iraqis have demonstrated in central Baghdad and across mostly Shiite southern Iraq in recent days, calling for the overthrow of the political system. The protests are fueled by anger at widespread corruption, high unemployment and poor public services. Anti-government protesters stand on barriers set by Iraqi security forces to close a bridge leading to the Green Zone government areas during ongoing protests in Baghdad, Iraq, on Monday. (AP) Monday’s demonstration came hours after Iraqi security forces gunned down three protesters outside the Iranian Consulate in the Shiite holy city of Karbala. In that protest Sunday night, dozens of Iraqis set tires ablaze and attacked the consulate, scaling concrete barriers ringing the building and lobbing firebombs over its walls. They chanted "the people want the fall of the regime," one of the main slogans of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Protesters had tried to bring down the Iranian flag and replace it with the Iraqi one but could not reach it. They then placed an Iraqi flag on the wall around the consulate, the AP reported.

Watch As Iraq Protesters Torch Iranian Consulate Over 'Foreign Interference' - As anti-corruption protests in Lebanon and Iraq have raged and quickly turned into massive anti-government protests, with the latter much fiercer and more violent, now with over 250 Iraqis killed and nearly 10,000 wounded, there's growing fears that in both countries a Syria-style broader proxy war could emerge.  Iran has accused the US and Israel for stoking unrest, while Washington and Tel Aviv officials see 'Iranian expansion' and meddling as the true culprit. It appears that some Iraqis agree, given the Iranian consulate in the city of Karbala came under attack Sunday, in the latest sign of public backlash over perceived Iranian control of Baghdad political leaders.  "Protesters scaled the consulate’s walls late Sunday while hauling an Iraqi flag. Security forces fired rubber bullets to disperse protesters who were throwing Molotov cocktails over the wall," The Wall Street Journal reported based on local video of the attack.  It came after last week Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed foreign powers for unrest gripping Iraq and Lebanon. "I recommend those who care in Iraq and Lebanon remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their countries by the US, the Zionist regime, some western countries, and the money of some reactionary countries," Khamenei stated using his official social media accounts.   This also as Iran has been blamed for intervening to prevent the ouster, via forced resignation, of Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi amid the popular protests and mayhem. 

Most Severe Internet Outage To Date Hits Iraq After Government Blocks Access -Iraqi anti-government demonstrators fear a major new crackdown is coming after much of the nation's internet access has been cut, especially in the restive south. This also as Baghdad authorities fear outside 'foreign interference' after President Trump referenced the mass protests on Twitter. A nearly nationwide blockage was first reported last night, and was briefly restored early Tuesday before being cut off again. “At the time of writing, national connectivity has fallen below 19% of normal levels sending tens of millions of users offline across Baghdad, also impacting Basra, Karbala and other population centers," Reuters cited NetBlocks as stating late in the day Monday. “The new disruption is believed to be the most severe observed in Iraq to date,” the report added. And NetBlocks monitoring group further observed into Tuesday — "Internet shut down again across most of Iraq following brief 3.5 hour restoration; real-time network data show national connectivity currently at 30% of ordinary levels" — related to the ongoing mass protests which have swept the country for over the past month.  After accusations of Iran being involved in assisting and directing Baghdad security forces' crackdown, which in many case has involved live ammo to disband crowds, resulting at this point in over 250 Iraqis killed and nearly 10,000 wounded, there's growing fears that a Syria-style broader proxy war could emerge. 

Over A Dozen Iraq Protesters Shot Dead In Last 48 Hours; Military Bans Use Of Live Ammo - Days into a government ordered internet blackout across much of the country, Iraqi security forces are in the midst of a new major crackdown on massive protests which have gripped the nation for over a month.In the past days it's been marked by use of live ammunition, increasing arrests, and cutting off protester communications; however, these heavy handed tactics and new violence appear to be having little effect on slowing the demonstrators' momentum. Already on Thursday, four protesters have been shot dead in central Baghdad, Reuters reports, with 35 wounded as the crowds battled with police to seize and occupy Shuhada Bridge in the capital. Other regional media have counted at least 13 killed since Tuesday.  During what's been dubbed the "second wave" of protests which began on Oct. 25, and have continued for nearly two straight weeks, the United Nations tallied at least 97 deaths, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) reported Tuesday.In total the unrest has claimed over 250 lives and 10,000 or more wounded throughout the whole of the protests, according to most estimates.  Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi now appears ready to use any means necessary to crush the protests, which have been largely driven by popular anger over corruption, failing public services and infrastructure, as well as fear of undue Iranian foreign interference in the government and military.

Thousands gather on Beirut’s streets for anti-government protest  -Tens of thousands of Lebanese protested on Sunday to keep up a nationwide street movement that has brought down the government, hours after a smaller rally of thousands was held to support the embattled president.Unprecedented cross-sectarian demonstrations have gripped Lebanon since October 17, demanding a complete overhaul of a political system deemed inefficient and corrupt.On Sunday evening, thousands of protesters streamed into the main square carrying Lebanese flags and a flurry of inventive slogans on placards, an AFP correspondent said. "Revolution," they cried to the rhythm of electronic beats in Martyrs' Square."All of them means all of them," they chanted, calling for political leaders from all sectarian stripes to step down.They also called for a general strike on Monday to pressure political leaders.The protest, the biggest since Tuesday when supporters of the powerful Hezbollahmovement broke up the protest camp, followed a rally earlier in the day by supporters of Lebanon's president, held to counter anti-government protests that have paralysed the country for more than two weeks.

Protesters block roads in Beirut, other areas of Lebanon (Reuters) - Protesters blocked roads in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon on Monday, pressing a wave of demonstrations against the ruling elite that have plunged the country into political turmoil at a time of acute economic crisis. The nationwide protests, which were ignited on Oct. 17 by a government proposal to tax WhatsApp calls, led Saad al-Hariri to resign as prime minister last week. There has been no sign of progress yet toward agreement on a new government. After Hariri quit, protests had ebbed, roadblocks were lifted and banks reopened for the first time in two weeks on Friday. But in the early hours of Monday, new roadblocks emerged on in Beirut and around the country, snarling major traffic arteries including the main seaside highway north and south of the capital. Schools called off plans to reopen and are now in their third week of closure. “The slogan is ‘this revolution doesn’t know sleep, form the government today’,” said Hashem Adnan, one of several dozen protesters blocking the Ring Bridge in Beirut, demanding a new cabinet independent of the political elite which protesters accuse of corruption and steering Lebanon into economic crisis. “People are continuing because you know you can’t trust this regime, any part of it,” he said. In the northern city of Tripoli, demonstrator Rabih al-Zein said protesters had escalated again because they do not trust the ruling elite to meet demands for a new administration that will act against corruption. “We want technocrats (in government) and we want judges to fight corruption, recover stolen money and hold the government accountable,” he said.

Lebanon protesters seek to shut down key state institutions - Lebanese demonstrators have begun surrounding government institutions in the capital, Beirut, and other cities, as a mass protest movement demanding an overhaul of the country's political system approaches its fourth week. The move on Wednesday suggests a shift in the focus of protesters from blocking roads and setting up barricades to holding sit-ins at state-affiliated sites as they seek to maintain pressure on the political establishment until their demands for the departure of the ruling elite and an end to chronic economic mismanagement and corruption are met. "They want to see the next step happening, which is the president announcing a date for consultations ... for a new prime minister and a new government to be formed," she said. Saad Hariri last week resigned as Lebanon's prime minister, satisfying one of the protesters' main demands, but President Michel Aoun's has yet to set a date - as he is obliged to - for formal consultations with legislators to pick a replacement. Besides the justice ministry, other protest points where large sit-ins are expected on Wednesday include the ministries of energy, foreign affairs, finance, tourism, communication and labour, as well as the offices of Electricite Du Liban, the main Lebanese electricity provider. Other state-affiliated institutions include Zaitunay Bay, a controversial marine development at the heart of Beirut's central area and telecommunication operators. Simultaneously, a march to "reclaim coastal public property" is also planned, according to Lara Bitar, a media worker and organiser. Blocking highways, main roads and intersections in Lebanon's major cities have been the main tactic used by the leaderless protest movement, which transcends Lebanon's traditional religious and political divides, since the demonstrations began 21 days ago. The country had come to a standstill for about two weeks until the cabinet resigned on Tuesday, which later led to the lifting of some roadblocks and the reopening of banks. The demonstrators, however, have not backed down, drawing criticism mainly from government supporters who accuse them of disrupting social life. Protesters want Hariri's government, now in a caretaker role, to be replaced with a cabinet of independent experts who can lead Lebanon out of a deepening economic and financial crisis, secure basic services such as water and electricity and create a new, non-sectarian electoral law.

Clients With Guns Are Demanding Deposits From Crisis-Stricken Lebanese Banks --Here we go as predicted: the Lebanese central bank attempts to prevent a "panic mode" scramble on the part of the public to remove all deposits, and the recently imposed (unofficial) regulations geared toward staving off capital flight are predictably failing fast, per Reuters: “Clients with guns have entered banks and security guards have been afraid to speak to them as when people are in a state like this you don’t know how people will act.”Lebanon's private banks reopened a week ago on Friday following a two-week closure due to massive anti-government protests which created gridlock across the country's main cities, including closure of other public institutions such as schools. The Nov. 1 bank re-openings followed Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation last week, which the some one million demonstrators flooding Lebanon's streets since early last month have touted as a 'success'; however, the economy remains on the brink of collapse, given growing fears of a major run on the banks.Since reopening banks have blocked most transfers abroad and maintained tight controls over hard-currency withdrawals, policies which have led to reports of threats against bank staff. Some of these heated encounters are being filmed and posted to the internet. Likely the situation is about to become explosive into next week after the banks close for the weekend. "This is our money!... We can't get our money - you have money in the banks and you're not giving it to the people! You're stealing from us!" (our translation) the man in the below video shouts inside his bank.

The genie is out of the bottle -The Arab world is one gigantic pressure cooker. For the most part the lid of repression is on, but it is boiling over with increasing frequency. Whether in Lebanon, Iraq or in Algeria, where people are rising up against political despotism and corruption.   We have seen how the lid was lifted this year in Algeria following the toppling of the dictator Abdelaziz Bouteflika, a country now in the throes of weekly demonstrations demanding an end to the entire "Bouteflika system".Or in Sudan, where long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir was ousted and the protest movement managed to negotiate a power-sharing agreement with the military – to date the sole rulers of the nation – which should in three years lead to a civilian government and democratic elections.And even in Egypt, a country ruled by an omnipotent repressive apparatus, people dared just a few weeks ago to take to the streets for the first time against the former head of the military and President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. All this shows one thing above all else: politics in the Arab world cannot be described with the seasons of the years along the lines of "the Arab Spring has become the Arab Winter". What we’re experiencing on our doorstep in the southern and eastern Mediterranean as well as in the Middle East, is a long-term process of upheaval. Even the beginnings of this insurgency can be described as a process. The reality is much more complex than the story of the street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi who set himself alight in Tunisia and with this single act, this beat of a butterfly’s wing,triggered a hurricane that swept across the entire Arab world.

The Coming Middle East Conflagration - The senior ministers of the Israeli government met twice last week to discuss the possibility of open war with Iran. They were mindful of the Iranian plan for a drone attack from Syria in August, aborted at the last minute by an Israeli air strike, as well as Iran’s need to deflect attention from the mass protests against Hezbollah’s rule in Lebanon. The ministers also reviewed the recent attack by Iranian drones and cruise missiles on two Saudi oil installations, reportedly concluding that a similar assault could be mounted against Israel from Iraq.The Israel Defense Forces, meanwhile, announced the adoption of an emergency plan, code-named Momentum, to significantly expand Israel’s missile defense capacity, its ability to gather intelligence on embedded enemy targets, and its soldiers’ preparation for urban warfare. Israeli troops, especially in the north, have been placed on war footing. Israel is girding for the worst and acting on the assumption that fighting could break out at any time. And it’s not hard to imagine how it might arrive. The conflagration, like so many in the Middle East, could be ignited by a single spark. Israeli fighter jets have already conducted hundreds of bombing raids against Iranian targets in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Preferring to deter rather than embarrass Tehran, Israel rarely comments on such actions. But perhaps Israel miscalculates, hitting a particularly sensitive target; or perhaps politicians cannot resist taking credit. The result could be a counterstrike by Iran, using cruise missiles that penetrate Israel’s air defenses and smash into targets like the Kiryah, Tel Aviv’s equivalent of the Pentagon. Israel would retaliate massively against Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut as well as dozens of its emplacements along the Lebanese border. And then, after a day of large-scale exchanges, the real war would begin.   The majority of the weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal are standoff missiles with fixed trajectories that can be tracked and intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system. But Iron Dome is 90 percent effective on average, meaning that for every 100 rockets, 10 get through, and the seven operational batteries are incapable of covering the entire country. All of Israel, from Metulla in the north to the southern port city of Eilat, would be in range of enemy fire.

Israel draft bill would annex major West Bank settlements –   -- Israel’s former justice minister Ayelet Shaked submitted a draft bill in the Knesset to annex a number of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, reported the Jerusalem Post.The legislation would see Israeli “sovereignty” applied to settlements in the Jordan Valley region, as well as the Ma’ale Adumim and Gush Etzion settlement blocs in the central and southern West Bank.According to the report, the bill also includes Efrat and Betar Illit settlements and the Megilot Region of the Dead Sea.Shaked, who heads up the Yamina party, “clarified that the application of sovereignty would be for the areas within the settlements and would not cover roads and archaeological and industrial parks in the regions of Judea and Samaria [the occupied West Bank].”Although there is currently a caretaker government in place, with coalition negotiations continuing, the Knesset still sits and is able to pass legislation. “There is a diplomatic window of opportunity and willingness on the part of the US for this kind of annexation that will not return,” Shaked said.

Footage leaked of Israeli officer shooting Palestinian in the back - Israel has completed an investigation into the case of a former police officer who shot an unarmed Palestinian in the back with a sponge-tipped bullet. The incident, which took place more than a year ago, was revisited over the weekend when a domestic television channel aired leaked footage of it. Channel 13 News reported that the man was stopped as he tried to enter Israel from the occupied West Bank. In what appears to be a cameraphone video, published on Saturday evening, the unidentified man is seen being ordered by a female border police officer to leave. He promptly walks away along an empty road with his hands up as other Israeli officers shout “Go!” in Arabic. Almost 20 seconds later he is shot in the back, and he screams in pain as he collapses. The officers then turn and leave.

Pentagon Expands Permanent Africa Presence With $110M Drone Base In Niger - Signaling what will be a major uptick in US drone activity across western Africa, US African Command (AFRICOM) announced Friday its airbase Agadez, Niger has gone operational, not just flying surveillance drones as was originally expected, but also armed combat drones. Flights from the base, called Air Base 201, began last week and the patrols are to aid US-Nigerien military patrols in rooting out regional ISIS militants and other Islamist factions which have been threatening the area. Specifically US officials say the armed drone program is badly needed due to prior ISIS ambushes on US-Nigerien troops. The move comes a little more than two years after four Army soldiers were killed on Oct. 4, 2017, in an attack on a joint U.S.-Nigerien military patrol by an ISIS offshoot known as Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.The US Air Force, which has described the $110 million constructed airfield as among the harshest locations in the world from which the military operates, endured multiple delays in establishing the base given the difficult remote desert environment. "I would say that the construction of Air Base 201 will go down as one of the most Herculean efforts in the history of the United States Air Force," Brig. Gen. Michael Rawls of the Air Force's 435th Air Expeditionary Wing in Africa described earlier this year.