natural gas price at a 35 month high; distillates exports at a 15 month high; oil rigs at 4 year low, natgas rigs at 27 month high

natural gas prices at a 35 month ​closing high; exports of distillates at a 15 month high; the largest rig count drop in 6 months: oil rigs fell 12 to the lowest since September 2021, while natural gas rigs rose 3 to a 27 month high

US oil prices finished higher for the second time in three weeks as drawn-out peace talks kept geopolitical risks in play, while odds increased for a December interest rate cut…after falling 3.2% to $58.06 a barrel last week after Trump pushed a 28 point plan to end the war in Ukraine and both parties seemed to be willing to negotiate on his terms, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for January delivery fell in early Asian trading on Monday, continuing the​ weakness seen last week, amid approaching peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and a stronger U.S. dollar, but then turned higher during early US trading, as traders watched the US-Ukraine talks for signs on whether a Russia peace deal could increase crude flows, and settled 78 cents higher at $58.84 a barrel on increased bets on a U.S. interest rate cut in December and mounting doubts about whether Russia could get a peace deal with Ukraine that would boost Moscow's oil exports….but oil prices fell in Asia on Tuesday, as forecasts of oversupply in 2026 outweighed concerns over potential disruptions to Russian crude due to sanctions, amid ongoing uncertainty over talks to end the war in Ukraine, then extended those losses in early US trading after news broke that Ukraine had mostly agreed to a peace deal, with only “minor details” left to discuss and settle, and ended 89 cents, or 1.5% lower at $57.95 a barrel, after Ukraine's national security chief said Zelensky would visit the U.S. in the next few days to finalize a deal with Trump to end the war… oil prices rebounded slightly during Asian trading on Wednesday, as optimism grew over a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could ease international sanctions on Russian energy exports, then steadied near one month lows in early US trading after Goldman ​Sachs said a peace deal could shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 oil for next year, before rallying to settle 70 cents higher at $58.65 a barrel as traders assessed prospects of oversupply and talks over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday…with US markets closed for Thanksgiving, oil prices steadied on global markets on Thursday, as traders weighed talks to end the war in Ukraine against the impact of Western sanctions against Russian supply, then were largely unchanged in Asia on Friday as drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated, and traders eyed the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for clues about potential output changes, but softened during US trading after a technical glitch at the CME halted trading in Chicago for several hours, before settling 10 cents lower at $58.55 a barrel as traders considered oil's geopolitical risk premium amid the drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks, ​l​eaving oil 0.8% higher for the week…

Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for a sixth straight week on record LNG demand, a larger than expected draw of gas from storage, and a much colder than normai two week forecast….after edging 0.5% higher to $4.580 per mmBTU last week amid swinging weather forecasts following the season’s first withdrawal of gas from storage, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for December delivery opened 8.9 cents lower on Monday, then rose cautiously through the morning as traders eyed the imminent contract settlement, steady production, and a forecasted increase in month-end demand, and settled 3.1 cents lower at $4.549 per mmBTU as traders focused on portfolio positioning ahead of prompt month expiration amid profit-taking after a rally ​late last week….that December gas contract opened 22.2 cents lower on its last day of trading Tuesday, on volatility that was expected ahead of its expiration, given the sharp price runup​ of the contract in recent weeks, and expired 12.5 cents lower at $4.424 per mmBTU, on record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, contract expiry, and lower gas prices in Europe on the Ukraine peace talks, while the more actively traded benchmark natural gas contract for January delivery settled 19.1 cents lower at 4.481 per mmBTU….with markets now citing the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for January delivery, natural gas futures moved higher early Wednesday, as traders positioned ahead of a holiday-accelerated storage report, and settled 7.7 cents higher at $4.558 per mmBTU, on record flows to LNG export plants, forecasts for colder weather and higher demand, and a bigger-than expected withdrawal from storage…natural gas prices rallied sharply on Friday, on expectations of colder US weather, with intense cold seen for the Northeast and Great Lakes, and settled 29.2 cents higher at a 35 month ​closing high of $4.850 per mmBTU, as a polar vortex weakening forecast for early December was expected to unleash Arctic air masses into North America, extending subfreezing conditions across key demand zones, and thus ended 5.9% higher for the week, while the benchmark natural gas contract for January delivery, which had finished the prior week priced at $4.743, finished this week 2.3% higher..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending November 21st indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 11 cubic feet to 3,935 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 32 billion cubic feet, or 0.8% lower than the 3,967 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on November 21st of last year, but 160 billion cubic feet, or 4.2% more than the five-year average of 3,775 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 21st of November over the most recent five years….the 11 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage for the cited week was more than the 2 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and also more than the two billion cubic foot of gas that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, but was less than the average 25 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same week of November over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 21st indicated that after a decrease in our oil exports and an increase in our oil imports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 23rd time in forty-two weeks, and for the 40th time in seventy-two weeks, in spite of an increase in demand for oil from our refineries….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 486,000 barrels per day to average 6,436,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 703,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 560,000 barrels per day to average 3,598,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,838 barrels of oil per day during the week ending November 21st, an average of 1,046,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 128,000 barrels per day higher at 598,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 20,000 barrels per day lower than the prior week at 13,814,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,250,000 barrels per day during the November 21st reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,443,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 21st, an average of 211,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 468,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending November 21st averaged a rounded 340,000 more barrels per day than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for the difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [-340,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.…since 278,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 62,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are also off by that much.... Despite those errors, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 468,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 396,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 71,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 5,883,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 11.2% less than the 6,629,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 20,000 barrels per day lower at 13,814,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 15,000 barrels per day lower at 13,394,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day lower at 420,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 5.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 42.4% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.3% of their capacity while processing those 16,443,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 21st, up from the 90.0% utilization rate of a week earlier, with increasing utilization largely due to wrapping up routine Fall refinery maintenance….the 16,443,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 0.9% more than the 16,295,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending November 22nd of 2024, and were 0.7% more than the 16,334,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 89.3%, which was below the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

With this week’s increase in the number of barrels of oil that were refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 286,000 barrels per day to 9,557,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 21st, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 662,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 1.9% less than the 9,744,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending November 22nd of last year, and 5.0% less than the gasoline production of 10,065,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 4,998,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 116,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after that production increase, our distillates output was 1.9% less than the 5,096,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 22nd of 2024, and 1.5% less than the 5,075,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019....

With this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the second time in seven weeks and for fourth time in nineteen weeks, increasing by 2,513,000 barrels to 209,904,000 barrels during the week ending November 21st, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,327,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased ​again this week even as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 198,000 barrels per day to 8,726,000 barrels per day, and as our exports of gasoline rose by 115,000 barrels per day to 1,088,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of gasoline rose by 10,000 barrels per day to 658,000 barrels per day… Even after thirty gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were just 1.1% less than last November 22nd’s gasoline inventories of 212,241,000 barrels, and about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Likewise, after this week’s increase in distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 21st time in 46 weeks, increasing by 1,147,000 barrels to 112,227,000 barrels during the week ending November 21st, after our distillates supplies had increased by 171,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies rose by more this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 520,000 barrels to 3,362,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 578,000 barrels per day to a 15 month high of 1,671,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 111,000 barrels per day to 199,000 barrels per day... With 55 withdrawals from distillates inventories over the past 95 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.2% less than the 114,717,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 22nd of 2024, and about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the drop in our oil exports and the increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time over the past year, increasing by 2,774,000 barrels over the week, from 424,155,000 barrels on November 14th to 426,929,000 barrels on November 21st, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,426,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were 4% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 22% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third week of November over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, changes in our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this November 21st were 0.4% less than the 428,448,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 22nd of 2024, and were 5.1% below the 449,664,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 24th of 2023, and 1.1% less than the 431,665,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 18th of 2022…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was down by ten over the holiday shortened period ending November 26th, the third decrease in thirteen weeks and the largest drop since May 23rd, as the number of rigs targeting oil fell by twelve to ​407, their lowest since September 2021, while the count of rigs targeting natural gas was up by three​ to 130 rigs, a 2.25-year high, and miscellaneous rigs were down by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 26th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (November 21st) and this week’s (November 26th) count, the third column shows last week’s November 21st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 27th of November, 2024…

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Ohio Judge Rules Against Austin Master Services for $6.2 Million -- Marcellus Drilling News - One of the significant stories of 2024 in the Ohio Utica was about Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry, Ohio, that processes and transports fracking waste for disposal. AMS ran into trouble when it ran out of money. The Martins Ferry facility in Belmont County, where waste is temporarily stored, had vastly exceeded its permitted limit of 600 tons (storing over 10,000 tons), resulting in a permit violation. The Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against the company in March 2024 to compel compliance and require cleanup of the facility. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) stepped in to handle the cleanup. As of May 2025, cleaning and testing were completed (see Austin Master Services Ohio Frack Waste Cleanup Complete Today). The AG’s office sued for $6 million to cover the cost of cleanup (see ODNR Seeks $6M from Austin Master Services to Cover Cleanup Costs). Last week, a Belmont County court ruled in favor of the state.

PA-Based Frac Sand Company Expands Presence in Ohio Utica in 3Q -- Marcellus Drilling News - We first told you about a frac sand company called Smart Sand some 13 years ago (see Smart Sand Lands Big Name for Board of Directors). Smart Sand, headquartered in Yardley, PA, is a supplier of industrial sand, primarily serving customers in the oil and gas industry, including drillers in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. Sand—the right kind of sand, which is crystalline—is a critical part of the hydraulic fracturing process. The company issued its third quarter update recently. The company said it further expanded its presence in the Utica shale through company-owned Ohio terminals in 3Q.

Don’t Stop Believin’ – A Drill Down Report on Marcellus/Utica Gas Production and Pipeline Egress - ​RBN Energy - Appalachia is churning out 36 Bcf/d of natural gas, or just over one-third of Lower 48 production, and the region has the potential to produce considerably more — if demand warrants and sufficient takeaway infrastructure is in place. The big question for Appalachia E&Ps as 2025 draws to a close is whether their collective gas output will finally break out from the rangebound volumes they’ve been producing through the first half of this decade. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on Marcellus/Utica gas supply, demand and pipeline egress. The Shale Revolution changed everything in the Northeast U.S. In the 2010s, Marcellus/Utica natural gas production increased from less than 2 Bcf/d to a staggering 33 Bcf/d, and the region flipped from being heavily dependent on piped-in gas from the Gulf Coast, the Midcon, the Rockies and Canada to a gas-production powerhouse. Not only was Appalachia suddenly producing enough gas to meet the Northeast’s needs, but midstream companies were scrambling to add new pipeline capacity to transport many billions of cubic feet of Marcellus/Utica gas a day to the Midwest, the Southeast and the Gulf Coast itself. As shown in Figure 1 below, gas production in the broader Appalachia region (Marcellus/Utica plus other, much smaller production areas) has been hovering between 34 Bcf/d and 36 Bcf/d through the first half of the 2020s. Of the current ~35 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica production, about 11 Bcf/d comes out of the dry Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania and the other 24 Bcf/d comes out of the wet Marcellus/Utica: ~10 Bcf/d from northern West Virginia, ~9 Bcf/d from southwestern Pennsylvania and ~5 Bcf/d from eastern Ohio. (RBN estimates that more than 1 MMb/d of NGLs is currently being “recovered” — that is, not “rejected” into natural gas for its Btu value — in the wet Marcellus/Utica, more than 400 Mb/d in both southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia and more than 200 Mb/d in eastern Ohio.) There were at least a couple of reasons why Marcellus/Utica production growth stalled. One is the fact that by 2020 the buildout of new takeaway pipelines out of the Northeast — and pipelines within the region, for that matter — slowed to a crawl, largely due to regulatory and legal setbacks. That, combined with slowing gas-demand growth in the region, had the effect of capping how much E&Ps could produce. The tight takeaway-capacity situation also held down the price Appalachian producers received for their gas, providing a further disincentive to ramping up their output. The stagnation in Marcellus/Utica gas production may, at long last, be coming to an end. There are at least a few drivers:

• Rising gas demand for data-center-related power generation and LNG exports.
• New takeaway capacity coming online.
• Ever-improving efficiency in drilling and completion.

During their recent Q3 2025 earnings calls, nearly every major player in Marcellus/Utica gas production discussed their expectations for higher gas demand from new power generation in and near their production areas, most of which is tied to planned data centers. For example, EQT — the largest producer in Appalachia — holds agreements in principle to supply 665 MMcf/d of natural gas to a planned 4,400-MW power station in Homer City, PA, and 800 MMcf/d to a 3,600-MW power station in Shippingport, PA, each of which will support large data centers under development near the heart of EQT’s gas production area in southwestern Pennsylvania. Also, a slew of new gas-fired power plants will be coming online in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama, many of which will be fueled by Marcellus/Utica-sourced gas thanks to new pipeline capacity being developed. Most important, the 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) from northern West Virginia to an interconnect with the Transco system in south-central Virginia started up in mid-2024 (a 600-MMcf/d expansion to MVP is being planned) and a long list of capacity-expansion projects along and off of Transco will enable more gas to move down the Eastern Seaboard (see Figure 2 below). Also, Kinder Morgan is planning several major projects in the Deep South — including the 2.1-Bcf/d Mississippi Crossing and 1.3-Bcf/d South System Expansion 4 projects — to move more Appalachian gas from its Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) system to power generators and other customers in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. New LNG export capacity slated to come online along the Gulf Coast over the next five or six years is another major factor. According to RBN’s LNG Voyager report, the capacity of LNG export facilities will increase from about 14 Bcf/d today to more than 25 Bcf/d in 2031. The pace of LNG export project development has been picking up. Just this year, projects that will add 8.5 Bcf/d of demand have reached a final investment decision (FID), including Venture Global’s CP2 in Louisiana, which will demand up to 2.6 Bcf/d of feedgas; Woodside’s Louisiana LNG (2.2 Bcf/d); and Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG 2 (1.7 Bcf/d in the first phase). There’s a caveat, though, for while Marcellus/Utica E&Ps send significant volumes of gas south to LNG export terminals in Louisiana and Texas, their ability to do so is limited by (you guessed it!) takeaway capacity — additional capacity is needed to allow Appalachia producers to take fuller advantage of the burgeoning Gulf Coast market. There’s one standout project here: Boardwalk Pipeline’s proposed Borealis Pipeline (dashed pink line in Figure 3 above), a greenfield pipe that would run about 180 miles from Clarington, OH, to the northeastern tip of Boardwalk’s Texas Gas Transmission (TGT; purple line) system in Lebanon, OH. The Borealis Pipeline project would also involve enhancements to TGT itself, which could allow up to 2 Bcf/d to flow south to LNG export terminals and other demand along the Gulf Coast.

Talen Completes Purchase of M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH - Marcellus Drilling News - In July, MDN told you that Talen Energy, a leading energy producer in the U.S., which owns and operates approximately 10.7 gigawatts (GW) of power infrastructure, had announced the acquisition of two gas-fired power plants: one located near Wilkes-Barre in northeastern Pennsylvania, and the other in Guernsey County, in eastern Ohio (see Talen Energy Buys 2 M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH for $3.8B). These types of transactions require approval from the federal government. Last week, Talen announced that both FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) and the DOJ (U.S. Department of Justice) had approved the transaction (see Talen Energy Gets Fed OK to Buy 2 M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH). And now, the deal is done.

Companies agree to $3.3M settlement over contamination of Allegheny River - The Allegheny Front -- The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has reached a $3.3 million agreement with two oil and gas companies over decades-old contamination at a petroleum storage facility in Pittsburgh. The agreement calls for Energy Transfer and Atlantic Richfield to fully clean up leaks emanating from the storage depot along the Allegheny River, in Pittsburgh’s Lawrenceville neighborhood. According to the DEP, the pollution dates back to when the site was a refinery owned by Standard Oil and Atlantic Refining, from 1868 to 1930. The contamination was first discovered in the late 1970s in connection with above-ground storage tank releases, and includes soil and groundwater contamination, tar releases along the Allegheny River, and “a petroleum sheen that has been present and continues to appear” along the river, according to the settlement. There have been various attempts by the state and previous owners to clean up the site, including a 1996 agreement with the terminal’s then-owner, Sunoco. But these have not worked, said Heather Hulton VanTassel, executive director of Three Rivers Waterkeeper. “It’s now a legacy site of petrochemicals that are just latent in that area,” VanTassel said. Her organization has been monitoring leaks from the site and reporting its findings to the DEP for several years. “We would find that this site was constantly leaking oil, creating an oil sheen on the Allegheny River that was consistent,” she said. In August, Three Rivers Waterkeeper issued a notice of intent to sue the site’s owners over the contamination. The site is occupied by a petroleum storage and distribution terminal owned by Energy Transfer, formerly Sunoco. It also includes a cold storage warehouse and an employee parking lot for UPMC Three Rivers Waterkeeper complained to DEP in 2023 about the site, and Sunoco placed booms in the river to contain the oil flow. But the seeps persisted, and in December 2023, the DEP issued notices of violation for the site “after inspectors confirmed unpermitted discharges to the Allegheny River,” the DEP said, in a statement. “This settlement sends a clear message that Pennsylvania will not tolerate ongoing violations that harm our waterways and communities,” said DEP Secretary Jessica Shirley, in a statement. “The Allegheny River is one of our most vital natural resources, and DEP will ensure that Energy Transfer and Atlantic Richfield Company take every step necessary to eliminate these discharges and restore the site.” VanTassel says the oil and petrochemicals that leak from the facility are harmful not just to wildlife but also to people. “The Allegheny River provides drinking water to the Pittsburgh region as well as flows into the Ohio River, and helps make up the headwaters to the Ohio River basin, [which] provides drinking water to five million people,” VanTassel said. “Also, oil on the river is going to take away from the recreational value [of the river],” she said. “That impacts our economy, that impacts our community’s wellbeing.” The order requires the companies to clean up both the oil terminal site and tar buildup on the banks of the Allegheny River. Of the $3.3 million fine, $1 million can be used to fund community environmental projects that directly benefit nearby communities impacted by historical pollution.

PA EQB to Consider Ban on New Shale Drilling Via Setbacks Dec. 9 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) will hold a meeting on Tuesday, December 9, to consider whether or not to accept a petition by radical green groups, including the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project, to “study” the issue of increasing setbacks for shale drilling so far that it would ban ALL new Marcellus/Utica drilling in the Keystone State. The EQB tabled a decision on accepting the petition back in April (see PA EQB Votes to Delay Consideration of Marcellus-Banning Setbacks). The hectoring green left continues to agitate and demand that the board consider its shale-banning proposal, so the board will oblige.

DEP: MarkWest Liberty Midstream Pipeline Construction Results In 10,000 Gallon Spill Into Coal Mine Void Under Washington County, For The 4th Time --On November 21, 2025, the Department of Environmental Protection was notified by MarkWest Liberty Midstream & Resources LLC that horizontal drilling operations on the construction of the shale gas-related Chiarelli to Imperial pipeline resulted in the loss of approximately 10,000 gallons of a water and bentonite mixture into coal mine voids under Mount Pleasant Township, Washington County.MarkWest said there was no evidence of any “inadvertent returns” on the surface as a result of the incident.DEP’s Bureau of Abandoned Mines was not notified. The Bureau was only to be notified if returns were observed again on the surface.Following DEP’s inspection of the site on November 24, no violations were issued. DEP Nov. 21 inspection report. DEP Nov. 24 inspection report.On October 28, 2025, MarkWest reported the loss of about 20,000 gallons of drilling fluid on the same pipeline construction project in Robinson Township, Washington County. Read more here.Two other loss of fluid events occurred in this same area, according to MarkWest, resulting in returns lost to suspected mine voids. Read more here.To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.

DEP Issues Lazy Oil Company Violations For Abandoning 12 Conventional Wells In Venango County; None Of The Wells Could Be Found At Their GPS Coordinates; If You Know More, Call DEP - On November 20, 2025, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected 12 never before inspected conventional oil and gas wells owned by the Lazy Oil Company in Clinton Township, Venango County and found all 12 wells were abandoned and not plugged. None of the wells could be located at the GPS coordinates listed on their oil and gas well registrations that were all issued on the same day-- April 19, 1990. The conventional wells inspected included the Lower McKinley (Miller) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10; and Heeter Upper 1, 2. The well owner also failed to submit annual production, waste generation/disposal and well integrity reports on the wells for at least 13 years. DEP said in its inspection reports attempts to contact the well owner were unsuccessful. DEP issued violations for abandonment and not submitting annual reports and gave the owner until December 11 to respond. Click Here for an example inspection report. Click Here for links to DEP inspection reports. The company address is listed 18955 Park Avenue Plaza, Meadville, PA 16335-4015 on the inspection reports. A search found there is a Vitality Natural Health and Wellness Center at that address. DEP’s eFACTS permits database shows Lazy Oil Company with an address of Squaw Valley Road, Emlenton, PA 16373. A search found multiple businesses on that road including The Hardwood Mall. DEP’s eFACTS database shows Lazy Oil holds 200 permits, including 1 for an abandoned well. PA Environment Digest encourages you to contact DEP if you have information that would be helpful in contacting the owners of the Lazy Oil Company or have more information on the abandoned wells. Contact DEP’s Northwest Oil & Gas District Office in Meadville at 814-332-6860 or the Knox Office at 814-797-1191.

UGI Cuts Ribbon on LNG Storage Facility in Cumberland County, PA - Marcellus Drilling News - UGI, a diversified energy company with midstream (pipeline) operations and one of PA’s largest utility companies, held a ribbon-cutting ceremony at its newest LNG peak shaver facility in Carlisle (Cumberland County), PA, yesterday. In November 2020, UGI launched the operation of a new 2-million-gallon LNG peak shaver in Bethlehem, PA (see UGI Energy Launches LNG Peak Shaver in Bethlehem, PA). The new peak shaver in Carlisle holds 3 million gallons of LNG. What is a peak shaver?

Natural Gas via Pipeline for Va. Eastern Shore Gets a $6.5M Boost - Marcellus Drilling News -- Accomack County has secured a $6.5 million state grant to expand piped natural gas to the Eastern Shore, a move aimed at stabilizing the local economy. County Administrator Mike Mason announced that the funds are fully in place, allowing the county to solicit utility companies to build and operate a system extending as far south as Perdue Farms in Accomac. This project targets major employers like Perdue, Tyson, and NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, while potentially reversing employment declines and lowering energy costs. Analysts highlight that natural gas could cost homeowners 57% less than propane and industrial users 75% less than electricity.

MAP: Where new natural gas power plants are being built in the U.S. · New gas-fired units are being increasingly concentrated in regions facing sharp load growth and accelerated retirements.

TET Propane versus Non-TET Differential At Levels Last Seen in 2019 | RBN Energy - In a pricing twist not seen since 2019, TET propane jumped to a 7.5 c/gal premium over non-TET on Wednesday (11/19) and averaged 6.5 c/gal for the week. This isn’t some obscure NGL spread with little real-world impact — it goes to the heart of how propane is traded. The TET index (the price in Energy Transfer storage) underpins more than 80% of propane hedging, while the non-TET price (the price in Enterprise storage caverns) dominates the physical market and is widely used in pricing formulae for production, exports, petrochemicals and domestic retail propane supply.This decades-old vestige of early propane markets is rarely a problem. As shown in the left graph below, for the past eleven years, non-TET has averaged 0.34 c/gal (about one-third of a cent) below TET, and the differential is quite stable. Until 2024, the annual average had never been above +.2 c/gal or below -.7 c/gal. The differential has been more volatile since 2024. Toward the end of that year, TET collapsed relative to non-TET, which drove the annual average differential to 0.52 c/gal. On September 30, TET dropped to more than 17 c/gal below non-TET and averaged 6.5 c/gal in October, primarily due to construction at the Energy Transfer dock, which resulted in low export volumes and high inventories across the Energy Transfer system. This time Energy Transfer also gets the blame, although for this spread blowout, the TET price is higher than non-TET. Exports out of the facility are again down, but the market has speculated that the reason is a shortfall in volumes through the Energy Transfer fractionators, causing the company to buy volumes to make up the difference, which has resulted in upward pressure on the TET price (right graph above). It is likely that the price disparity will correct itself in a few days when the November trade cycle rolls off the board on December 1.

Cameron LNG’s Long-planned Expansion Secures Federal Construction Extension - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 5 years: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has granted Sempra Infrastructure an additional five years to construct a proposed one train expansion at Cameron LNG. A similar request to extend worldwide LNG exports is still pending with the U.S. Department of Energy. An expansion and debottlenecking project for Cameron LNG has been proposed since 2016. Sempra previously disclosed it considers the project fully subscribed, with equity partners expected to exercise contract rights for the additional LNG capacity.
• 2 trains: The remaining contractors building Golden Pass LNG have finalized a cost-sharing agreement and revised contract with the project developer. Chiyoda International Corp. and McDermott LLC have been working on the final two trains of the 18 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility under an interim agreement shortly after lead construction staffing contractor Zachry Group filed bankruptcy and exited the project. The first train of Golden Pass could begin producing LNG by early next year.
• 25 cargoes: LNG Canada loaded its 25th cargo from the British Columbia facility last week as maintenance on Train 1 ends. The first train came online over the summer and shipped its first cargo in June, but flaring at the facility and reports of delayed loadings followed for several months. LNG Canada is now in the process of bringing its second 6.5 Mt/y train online. The facility is expected to ship up to 2.67 Mt by the end of the year, according to Kpler predictive data.
• 5 Mt/y: Woodside Energy Group Ltd. and the government of Timor-Leste have agreed to a feasibility study for an LNG export project tied to the Greater Sunrise offshore field. The 5 Mt/y facility and helium extraction plant are targeted for operation between 2032 and 2035. Woodside has been studying options for exporting gas from Timor-Leste for years, including a concept study completed last year. The Greater Sunrise field is estimated to hold around 5.1 Tcf in extractable dry gas supply.

U.S. Feedgas Demand Set to Soar by the End of the Year - U.S. LNG feedgas demand remains exceptionally strong and every terminal is operating at or above long-term contracted levels. Average demand reached 18.4 Bcf/d last week, a slight 0.3 Bcf/d drop from the previous week, mostly due to modest reductions in intake at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass. Both terminals are still operating at peak level, just with a lower intake than the week before. Freeport Train 1 tripped offline on November 20, which resulted in a single-day drop in feedgas intake. Feedgas demand has climbed by more than 4 Bcf/d since the start of the year, driven by commissioning at new terminals and expansions. The U.S.’s newest terminal, Plaquemines LNG is now operating near full capacity. We still expect feedgas demand to climb before the end of the year. Stay tuned to the LNG Voyager Weekly Report for more insights.

Venture Global, Tokyo Gas Sign 20-year LNG Pact Amid Major U.S. Export Buildout -- Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. is doubling down on its investment strategy across the U.S. natural gas value chain with a long-term LNG supply contract with Venture Global Inc. At A Glance:

• Tokyo Gas secures 1 Mt/y SPA
• Venture Global tallies 7.75 Mt/y in 2025 contracts
• Japan diversifies LNG portfolio

Venture Global, Tokyo Gas Sign 20-Year LNG Supply Agreement - - Venture Global has signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement with Tokyo Gas, adding 1 MMtpa of long-term sales and bringing its 2025 contract total to 7.75 MMtpa. The deal strengthens U.S.–Japan LNG trade as Gulf Coast export capacity continues to expand. Venture Global and Tokyo Gas have signed a new 20-year LNG sale and purchase agreement (SPA), expanding long-term U.S. LNG supply into Japan as demand for stable baseload fuel continues to grow across Asia. Under the deal, Tokyo Gas will purchase 1 MMtpa of LNG from Venture Global beginning in 2030. The agreement marks Venture Global’s fourth long-term LNG contract with a Japanese buyer and brings its total new SPAs signed in 2025 to 7.75 MMtpa, underscoring continued commercial momentum for U.S. Gulf Coast LNG projects. “Tokyo Gas is a pioneer in the LNG industry and a leading supplier of natural gas in Japan,” said Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global. “This agreement strengthens our position as one of Japan’s key LNG suppliers and will support reliable, affordable U.S. LNG deliveries for decades.” Venture Global now has more than 100 MMtpa of LNG capacity operational, in construction, or in development across its Louisiana export footprint, including Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines LNG, and the CP2 LNG project. The company continues to pursue vertically integrated growth strategies, including carbon capture and sequestration at each site. Tokyo Gas, Japan’s largest city-gas provider, serves approximately 13 million customers and maintains a diversified global LNG procurement portfolio as it works to balance energy security and decarbonization goals.

Venture Global Accuses Shell of ‘Campaign’ to Damage its LNG Biz - Marcellus Drilling News - This is really rich. Venture Global (VG), now the second-largest LNG (liquefied natural gas) exporter in the U.S., is accusing Shell of waging a “three-year campaign” to damage VG’s LNG business. VG’s Calcasieu Pass (CP) LNG export facility in Louisiana began operations in March 2022. Typically, a new LNG facility will load and ship several (maybe two or three) cargoes to “work out the kinks” and ensure everything is working as advertised. VG, using loopholes in its signed contracts, maintained that it was working out the kinks long after it began shipping. After *hundreds of cargoes* were shipped, CP’s customers were still not receiving their contracted (at lower prices) shipments. Shell, along with several other customers, sued (see Shell, Edison, BP File for Arbitration Against Venture Global LNG). Shell lost its arbitration case, but two months later, BP won its case. So, Shell appealed its rejected case (see Shell Challenges Venture Global Arbitration Loss in NY Court).

NextDecade Pre-Files with FERC to Build Rio Grande LNG Train 6 - Marcellus Drilling News - NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG is being developed on a 984-acre site along the Brownsville Ship Channel (Brownsville, Texas), approximately 3 miles east of Port Isabel. The facility currently has five trains under construction, with space at the site to double capacity. One month ago, Rio Grande LNG announced a favorable final investment decision (FID) to move forward with the construction of Train 5 (see NextDecade Announces Positive FID on Rio Grande Train 5 LNG Project). Marcellus driller EQT has contracted to buy (for resale) LNG from Train 5 (see EQT Announces Deal to *Buy* LNG from Rio Grande LNG Train 5). Yesterday, NextDecade announced it has pre-filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to build Train 6.

NextDecade Targets More Than 36 Mt/y With Rio Grande LNG Upscale, Sixth Train Expansion -- NextDecade Corp. plans to push its natural gas export capacity in South Texas to rival the current largest terminal as it works to become the next U.S. LNG powerhouse. At A Glance:

• Firm requests upscale to 6 Mt/y per train
• Train 6 in-service targeted for 2032
• More Permian feed gas, pipelines required.

FERC Weighs Blanket Authorizations for LNG Projects in Bid to Cut Red Tape -FERC is considering blanket authorizations for certain activities at LNG projects in a bid to strengthen regulatory certainty and streamline permitting for the sector as U.S. export capacity has grown significantly in recent years. At A Glance:

• Commission exploring conditions for authorization
• Move could cover construction, expansions, operations
• Shakeup comes as LNG construction booming

US natural gas futures fall 3% on record output despite cold forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a one-week low on Tuesday on record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, contract expiry, and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.5 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $4.424 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since November 18. Futures for January 2026 NGF26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 4.3% at $4.47 per mmBtu. Prices dropped despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts of colder weather and higher demand than previously expected over the next two weeks. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output had climbed to a record 111.2 bcfd on November 24, topping the previous record daily peak of 110.8 bcfd on November 23. Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 10. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.0 bcfd this week to 140.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. have risen to 18.0 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.7 bcfd on Tuesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15. Around the world, gas prices fell to a 16-month low near $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe on negotiations over a potential peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, while prices at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia held around a one-week low of $11.

US natural gas futures climb 2% on record LNG flows, colder forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, the expiration of a lower-priced contract, forecasts for colder weather and higher demand, and a bigger-thanexpected storage withdrawal. Limiting gains were record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.7 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $4.558 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, when futures for December were still the front-month, the contract closed at its lowest since November 18. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 11 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended November 21. That was bigger than the 2-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of two bcf during the same week last year and an average decline of 25 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 4% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 11. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.6 bcfd this week to 140.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.1 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.9 bcfd on Wednesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15. In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving across the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments. The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.

Nat-Gas Prices Soar as Forecasts for Below Normal US Temperatures​ -- January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Friday closed up by +0.292 (+6.41%).Jan nat-gas prices rallied sharply on Friday, surging to an 8.5-month nearest-futures high on expectations of colder US weather, potentially boosting heating demand for nat-gas.   The Commodity Weather Group on Friday said weather models shifted cooler in the US, with intense cold seen in the Northeast and Great Lakes region for December 3-7.  Also, forecasts indicate below-normal temperatures in the coming weeks for the Northeast and the Great Lakes.Higher US nat-gas production is a bearish factor for prices.  On November 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September's estimate of 106.60 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was a record 113.4 bcf/day (+8.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 98.6 bcf/day (+9.2% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 18.5 bcf/day (+4.4% w/w), according to BNEF.As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 15 rose +5.33% y/y to 75,586 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 15 rose +2.9% y/y to 4,286,124 GWh.Wednesday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 21 fell by -11 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -9 bcf but less than the 5-year weekly average of a -25 bcf draw.  As of November 21, nat-gas inventories were down -0.8% y/y and were +4.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of November 26, gas storage in Europe was 77% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.Baker Hughes reported Wednesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 28 rose by +3 to 130 rigs, a 2.25-year high.  In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

U.S. LNG Exports Set to Surge 40% as Europe Buys Record Volumes - Exports of liquefied natural gas from the United States are on track to book a 40% annual increase this month, hitting 10.7 million tons, projections from Kpler have shown, as cited by Bloomberg. An ample supply of liquefied gas has already pushed natural gas prices down in Europe, with prices reaching the lowest in over a year earlier this week, even as the weather gets colder as winter advances. According to Bloomberg, prices could fall further in the coming months, even though winter is peak demand season, all thanks to the abundance of U.S. liquefied gas. The United States turned into the world’s largest exporter of LNG in a matter of years as energy companies raced to build new liquefaction trains along the Gulf Coast in response to the surge in demand for a lower-emission alternative to coal. Last month, the U.S. became the first country to export 10 million tons of liquefied gas in a single month, enjoying solid demand from Europe, which earlier this year signed a commitment to buy significant volumes of both LNG and oil to get President Trump to lower tariffs. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the United States had become the first country to export 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas in a single month. Citing data from LSEG, the publication reported that U.S. LNG exports in October had hit 10.1 million tons, of which 6.9 million tons went to Europe, and another 1.96 million tons went to Asia. Europe accounted for 69% of total U.S. exports of liquefied gas, cementing the continent’s top spot among U.S. LNG clients. As for the source of the LNG, two companies accounted for over two-thirds of the total exports: Cheniere Energy and Venture Global. The two sold 72% of the 10.1 million tons of LNG that the country exported last month.

EPA cements delay of Biden-era methane rule for oil and gas -The Trump administration on Wednesday cemented its delay of Biden-era regulations on planet-warming methane coming from the oil and gas industry.Earlier this year, the administration issued an “interim final rule” that pushed back compliance deadlines for the Biden-era climate rule by 18 months. On Wednesday, it announced a final rule that locks in the delay.The delays apply to requirements to install certain technologies meant to reduce emissions. It also applies to timelines for states to create plans for cutting methane emissions from existing oil and gas. Methane is a gas that is about 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at heating the planet over a 100-year period.Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said the administration was acting in order to protect U.S. energy production. “The previous administration used oil and gas standards as a weapon to shut down development and manufacturing in the United States,” Zeldin said in a written statement. “By finalizing compliance extensions, EPA is ensuring unrealistic regulations do not prevent America from unleashing energy dominance,” he added.However, environmental advocates say the delay will result in more pollution.“The methane standards are already working to reduce pollution, protect people’s health, and prevent the needless waste of American energy. The rule released today means millions of Americans will be exposed to dangerous pollution for another year and a half, for no good reason,” Grace Smith, senior attorney at Environmental Defense Fund, said in a written statement. Meanwhile, the delay comes as the Trump administration reconsiders the rule altogether, having put it on a hit list of regulations earlier this year.

Trump faces rare rift with Florida Republicans over offshore drilling plan -- Florida Republicans are fuming as the Trump administration proposes to open up new drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. “The new maps released today by @SecretaryBurgum and @Interior outlining potential new offshore oil drilling sites in the Gulf of America are HIGHLY concerning—and we will be engaging directly with the department on this issue,” Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) wrote in a post on the social platform X.“Preserving our state’s natural beauty is deeply important to the millions who call the Sunshine State home, our visitors, and those whose livelihoods depend on tourism,” Moody wrote. The office of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) also criticized the plan, noting that in 2020, President Trump blocked drilling off the state’s coasts.“Our Administration supports the 2020 Presidential Memorandum and urges the Department of Interior to reconsider and to conform to the 2020 Trump Administration policy,” Molly Best, a spokesperson for DeSantis, said in a statement to The Hill.It’s a rare rift between the state’s Republicans and Trump, who made the state his primary residence in 2019. While his Mar-a-Lago resort is situated on the state’s east coast on the Atlantic Ocean, drilling in the Gulf would be more likely to impact the state’s west coast.On Thursday, the Trump administration proposed a massive expansion of U.S. offshore drilling, which would include opening up new drilling in the eastern Gulf, as well as in California. The move is something of a reversal for Trump, who in his first term as president barred drilling off the coast of Florida until 2032. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) indicated in a social media post that he preferred the previous policy.“Florida’s beautiful beaches and coastal waters are so important to our state’s economy, environment, and military community, which is why I have fought for years to keep drilling off Florida’s coasts and worked closely with President Trump during his first term to extend the moratorium banning oil drilling off Florida’s coasts through 2032,” Scott wrote. “I have been speaking to @SecretaryBurgum and made my expectations clear that this moratorium must remain in place, and that in any plan, Florida’s coasts must remain off the table for oil drilling to protect Florida’s tourism, environment, and military training opportunities,” he added.The oil industry has argued that drilling even in controversial places such as the eastern Gulf is necessary for the long run. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s “updated reserve estimate of 7.04 billion barrels of oil equivalent shows the Central and Western areas will remain prolific for decades, but sustaining the Gulf’s long-term competitiveness means evaluating opportunities in the Gulf of America Program Area B as well,” Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, said in a statement to The Hill, referring to all of the drilling areas proposed by the Trump administration.

Piece by Piece, Permian Express Has Evolved Into a Midstream Standout for Energy Transfer | RBN Energy - Energy Transfer stitched together its Permian Express system in stages over multiple years — first reversing and repurposing existing crude oil pipes, then building new capacity — and it’s now a standout in the company’s midstream portfolio, able to carry 600 Mb/d of crude oil from the Permian Basin to Nederland, TX, with multiple receipt and delivery points. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the Permian Express system and how it fits into Energy Transfer’s broader midstream strategy. This is the latest in our series on crude oil pipelines exiting the Permian Basin. In Bustin’ Out, we discussed the EPIC Crude Pipeline, which has been operating at full capacity. Then, we told the story of Gray Oak Pipeline in Movin' On Up and the Cactus I and II pipelines in Can’t Hold Back. All four travel to Corpus Christi. We recently wrapped up our Permian-to-Houston series with a new Drill Down Report, West Texas Highway, where we detailed how Houston is competing head-to-head with the Corpus Christi area to attract Permian barrels. There are only two pipelines that make the long trip from the Permian to Nederland, both owned by Energy Transfer: West Texas Gulf, the subject of our most recent blog on the subject, and Permian Express, which we’ll discuss today. These two lines boast a combined capacity of nearly 1 MMb/d to Nederland, a small city about 10 miles southeast of Beaumont. Beaumont and Nederland are in an industrial corridor in southeast Texas known as the Golden Triangle and are often referred to as a single market. Over the next four years, North American gas will be reshaped by a LNG export surge and AI-driven power demand. Massive infrastructure buildouts loom. Nederland receives considerably less Permian crude than Corpus Christi and Houston because its primary role is feeding nearby refineries in Port Arthur and Beaumont, including facilities owned by ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies. In contrast, Houston and Corpus Christi are export-driven hubs that together handle about 75% of Permian output. Through mid-year 2025, roughly 2.45 MMb/d of Permian crude flowed to Corpus Christi and 2.44 MMb/d headed to Houston, according to RBN’s Crude Oil Permian report, with only about 860 Mb/d destined for Nederland. Early flows to Nederland primarily supplied refinery demand, but after the ban on most U.S. crude exports was lifted in 2015, volumes also began supporting export movements. In October, crude export loadings in the Beaumont/Nederland area averaged about 230-250 Mb/d, while Houston consistently exports more than 1 MMb/d and Corpus Christi pushes above 2 MMb/d, according to RBN’s Crude Voyager. While crude export volumes from Nederland are far smaller than those from Houston or Corpus Christi, Permian Express’s connectivity is vital to Energy Transfer’s strategy (more on that below). The Permian Express pipeline system is owned by Permian Express Partners LLC, an 85/15 joint venture of Sunoco Logistics Partners and ExxonMobil Pipeline Co. that was formed in 2016. As for the ownership of Sunoco Logistics Partners, that’s a little complicated. In 2012, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) bought Sunoco Inc., which was the parent company of Sunoco Logistics. After the purchase, Sunoco Logistics continued to operate separately under its own name. Then in 2017, Sunoco Logistics turned around and acquired its former parent, Energy Transfer Partners. The two companies merged and then took on the Energy Transfer name and combined their pipeline systems into a single network. Today, Energy Transfer owns 85% of Permian Express, while ExxonMobil retains its 15% stake under the original joint operating agreement. The Permian Express system (dark-pink lines in Figure 1), which was built in stages between 2012 and 2019, has been uniquely stitched together. The first phase was a somewhat unconventional project that relied on reversing and repurposing existing crude oil pipes, rather than constructing new pipes. Historically, Sunoco operated a line that moved crude north from Wortham, TX, to Wichita Falls, but in 2012 the company reversed the flow direction so oil could move south from Wichita Falls to Wortham. Several other Permian pipes have experienced flow reversals. ONEOK’s Longhorn was both reversed and repurposed. Enterprise’s Midland to ECHO 2 is also among the repurposed pipes, and it switches between NGL and crude service and is switching to crude later this year. (It’s known as the Seminole Pipeline when in NGL service.) The next major phase of the Permian Express system, originally dubbed Permian Express II, was a new, 340-mile pipeline constructed by Sunoco that originates in Garden City (east of Midland) and connects through Colorado City, where Energy Transfer has a storage complex. The line ultimately ties into Energy Transfer’s existing network toward Nederland, where it connects to its storage and marine terminal facilities. Construction on Permian Express II began in 2014 and the line entered service in mid-2015. Incremental expansions of the system (which didn’t change the route but added capacity on existing lines) followed, with Permian Express III adding 140 Mb/d in Q4 2018 and Permian Express IV adding 120 Mb/d in Q3 2019. To support these expansions and access growing production, Energy Transfer expanded west into the Permian’s Delaware Basin in 2019. The project involved more than 400 miles of pipeline tie-ins, which are connections made between new pipeline segments and existing pipeline systems. Permian Express outflows (red line in Figure 2 below) peaked in October 2021 at around 660 Mb/d, which is a little above the nameplate capacity (dotted black line) for the 24-inch-diameter system. Since then, flows have dropped and now average around 400 Mb/d. Throughput was at 380 Mb/d in June, down from 400 Mb/d in May, the most recent data available. As discussed in our weekly Crude Oil Permian report, we expect the flows to remain steady but at a lower level than historical averages in the coming months. As we discussed in our last blog, it appears some of these volumes were diverted to other systems — namely, the West Texas Gulf pipeline, which has operated above its nameplate capacity eight times in the past 17 months, suggesting it likely took on some of the volumes that would have gone on the Permian Express system. Energy Transfer's Midland terminal typically makes up more than 25% of the Permian Express flows, according to the T-1 report filed with the Texas Railroad Commission. Purchased from Vitol in 2016, the 2-MMbbl terminal is a key juncture in the Permian Basin, allowing crude to access a number of major pipelines, including Permian Express. The Permian Express system also receives crude from Sunoco, West Texas Gulf and other third parties at Colorado City, with Plains All American among the largest. The bulk of Permian Express crude is delivered at Nederland, although the barrels don’t necessarily stay there. The terminal connects to several outbound pipelines, allowing Energy Transfer to move Permian Express oil to other refining and export markets. The Nederland terminal can also provide access to nearby refineries, such as ExxonMobil’s Beaumont, Motiva’s Port Arthur, Valero’s Port Arthur, and TotalEnergies’s Port Arthur. The Nederland terminal is linked to Energy Transfer Houston Terminal (ETHT), formerly known as the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal (HFOT, commonly called “hoftee”), via Energy Transfer’s 235-Mb/d Ted Collins Link (yellow line at bottom of Figure 1). ETHT is a sprawling facility on the Houston Ship Channel with about 18 MMbbl of storage capacity (of which approximately 7 MMbbl is used for crude oil), five docks, and the ability to fully load Aframaxes and smaller vessels and partially load Suezmaxes. (ETHT is also linked to virtually all the refineries in the area.) Energy Transfer acquired the terminal as part of its $5 billion acquisition of SemGroup in December 2019. Energy Transfer also partners with Phillips 66 on the Bayou Bridge Pipeline (dark-purple line), which carries crude from Nederland east into Louisiana, reaching major refineries in Lake Charles and the St. James hub, which distributes crude to several refineries in that part of the state.Some Permian Express barrels flowing to Wortham likely shift onto the Permian Longview Louisiana Extension, or PELA (orange line), heading for Longview. At Longview, Energy Transfer and Plains run storage terminals. Plains’ facility connects to its 12-inch, 80-mile Caddo Pipeline (dark-blue line), a 50-50 joint venture with Delek Logistics, moving crude from Longview to Shreveport, LA. In Shreveport, Caddo links up with Delek’s Magnolia Pipeline (lavender line), which carries barrels to Delek’s storage in Magnolia, AR, and on to Delek’s SALA line for final delivery to the company’s El Dorado refinery in Arkansas (refinery icon in upper-right). Permian Express also serves the small hub in Corsicana, TX, though deliveries there typically stay below 50 Mb/d.​ To sum up, Permian Express is a crucial part of Energy Transfer’s crude oil operations in the Permian Basin and helps anchor crude gathering and transportation. Energy Transfer has increased volumes as Houston and Corpus filled up, but Enterprise's Midland to ECHO 2 pipeline will be converting back to crude service soon, which may impact flows to Nederland somewhat, although a large amount of crude should continue to run on West Texas Gulf and Permian Express.

US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest in four years, Baker Hughes says - (Reuters) - U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, with oil rigs dropping to a four-year low, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Wednesday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 10 to 544 in the week to November 26, the lowest since September. , , Baker Hughes, which usually releases its North American rig count on Friday, issued this report a couple of days early due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by 12 to 407 this week, their lowest since September 2021, while gas rigs rose by 3 to 130, their highest since July 2023. In Texas, the biggest oil and gas producing state, the rig count fell by eight to 226, the lowest since July 2021. The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on boosting shareholder returns and paying down debt rather than increasing output. Even though analysts forecast U.S. spot crude prices would decline for a third year in a row in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected crude output would rise from a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to around 13.6 million bpd in 2025. On the gas side, EIA projected a 58% increase in spot gas prices in 2025 would prompt producers to boost drilling activity this year after a 14% price drop in 2024 caused several energy firms to cut output for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic reduced demand for the fuel in 2020. EIA projected gas output would rise to 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, up from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 and a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.

Crews race to contain oil spill in Ventura County creek - Cleanup was underway Wednesday in a wooded, remote area of Ventura County after about 420 gallons of crude oil inundated a waterway, officials said, and crews were working to beat the upcoming storm.An above-ground storage tank operated by Carbon California spilled the oil into a remote tributary of Sisar Creek near Ojai, contaminating about three-quarters of a mile of the waterway, according to state wildlife officials. Although the waterway and spill are small compared to some other major oil spills, "everything counts," said Kristina Meris, a spokesperson for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response.“There’s wildlife, there’s the environment, and people live in these areas," she said. "We want to clean up everything we possibly can as quickly as we can safely.”Initial reports of an oil spill were received Tuesday afternoon, Meris said. But steep terrain, limited road access and the approaching severe weather are complicating the cleanup.Responders reached the creek bed Wednesday and “hit it pretty hard today,” Meris said, setting up a safety zone around the site. Officials will also conduct air quality tests to evaluate health hazards.“It’s a super remote and super difficult area to get to,” Meris told The Times. "The only concern for the response tomorrow will be the bad weather coming in, so the safety of our responders could become an issue.”The spill originated from a damaged gas tank owned by Carbon California, a company that operates oil and gas wells in the state, particularly in Ventura County. Officials said the cause remained under investigation, but the company has been designated the responsible party and is participating in a unified command with state and local agencies, which also includes personnel from the Environmental Protection Agency, Fish and Wildlife and the Ventura County Sheriff's Department.Cleanup teams are skimming and pumping oil from the tributary and deploying absorbent booms and pads to recover oil trapped along the creek bed. Crews have been able to contain much of the spill, Meris said, but storm conditions could hamper their efforts.They expect to begin reporting recovery totals Thursday morning, though those numbers will likely reflect an “oily water mixture,” not pure crude. “Sometimes it can be a little bit higher than the number [of gallons spilled] because there will be water mixed in,” she said. No wildlife had been reported harmed as of Wednesday evening, but Meris emphasized that swift response was critical to preventing harm.“The quicker you respond, the quicker you get this cleaned up, the better for the environment,” she said. The spill site is far from major roadways, part of what officials described as a rugged stretch of watershed feeding into Sisar Creek. Cleanup operations will pause overnight for safety but are expected to resume Thursday morning, weather permitting.Officials did not immediately provide a timeline for a complete cleanup but said the response would continue until the creek met “established environmental endpoints” and recoverable oil product was removed.

Pipeline Shutdown Near Everett Due to Leakage Disrupts Sea-Tac Fuel Supply | Pipeline Technology Journal -Crews working for the London-based energy company BP have excavated more than 100 feet of the Olympic Pipeline near Everett, Washington, but have yet to identify the source of a refined product leak that has kept the crucial fuel line shut down for nearly two weeks. The ongoing disruption has prompted Washington Governor Bob Ferguson to declare an emergency following the widespread disruptions caused by the shutdown. The shutdown has significantly impacted jet fuel deliveries to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac), which is dependent on the pipeline for a substantial portion of its supply. In a statement released Friday, a BP spokesperson confirmed that excavation and inspection of the pipeline would continue overnight, noting that the line remains closed. The company provided no timeline for restarting the 400-mile system. The pipeline, which runs from northern Washington down to Oregon, transports gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel throughout the region. The initial leak was first reported on November 11. According to BP, crews briefly restored one of the two lines east of Everett earlier this week in an attempt to alleviate supply issues while the main investigation continued. However, the restored line was quickly shut down again, halting all refined product deliveries across the system once more. Governor Ferguson’s emergency declaration, issued on Wednesday, acknowledges the supply chain crisis caused by the closure. The declaration allows the state to take necessary steps to maintain essential services and mitigate the economic impact of the fuel shortage across the region.

U.S. Crude Hits a Record While Key Export Data Goes Dark -U.S. oil production hit another record in September, but the bigger story in this month’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is what isn’t in the report: actual export data. Because the U.S. Census Bureau couldn’t release September trade figures during a funding lapse, the EIA had no choice but to recycle August’s export numbers and paste them into September’s balance sheet. That one missing piece ripples through nearly everything analysts try to read from the monthly series — from product supplied to implied demand to net imports. In other words, September’s “demand” number is effectively a placeholder until Census provides new data.The production side, at least, is real. U.S. crude output in September edged up by 44,000 bpd to 13.84 million bpd — a fresh high and yet another reminder that weak prices haven’t slowed the machine much. New Mexico set another record at 2.351 million bpd, and the Gulf of Mexico climbed to just under 2 million bpd, the strongest since before the pandemic. The longer-cycle offshore projects are now doing more of the heavy lifting as the Permian approaches its comfort ceiling.Normally, the PSM would help sort out the noise from weekly data, but with exports frozen in amber, September’s disposition tables are something close to a shrug. Product supplied will look artificially subdued, adjustments will look bigger than they should, and net imports won’t tell you much of anything. EIA says it will republish the month once Census delivers the real figures. It's the worst possible time for the EIA to be missing export data. The market is already obsessed with the oversupply narrative. From OPEC+ arguing about baselines, to JPMorgan warnings, from U.S. shale flattening but the Gulf filling the gap, to IEA glut forecasts. The demand picture simply isn't real. Analysts will have to wait another cycle for the number that matters most: how much of that record production actually left the country.

CFE Advances Natural Gas Buildout With Los Cabos LNG-fed Plant - Mexican state utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) has launched a bidding process for a 240 MW internal combustion natural gas-fired power plant in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur. Stacked bar chart titled “Mexico Natural Gas Demand by Sector” showing monthly natural gas demand from January 2024 through November 2025 across four categories—power, industrial, PEMEX, and LNG feed gas, with total demand generally ranging between 8 and 10 Bcf/d, based on Wood Mackenzie data and NGI calculations. At A Glance:
Los Cabos plant targets 2028 start
Pichilingue LNG supply drives plans
Mexico power demand approaches 5 Bcf/d

LNG Canada ships 25th cargo since launch in late June -- LNG Canada has shipped its 25th cargo since the export terminal came online in late June, Canada’s flagship LNG project announced on November 20. The milestone comes after the project previously encountered obstacles in getting cargoes delivered due to disruptions in operations. The export terminal, based in Kitimat, British Columbia, approximately 800 km north of Vancouver, shipped its first cargo to Japan on June 30. However, in late July at least one cargo delivery was cancelled due to technical problems, with sources telling Reuters that the challenges were related to a gas turbine as well as a refrigerant production unit. At times, the facility was operating below half capacity for its first liquefaction train, which has a production capacity of 6.5mn tonnes per year (tpy). The export terminal had only delivered 14 cargoes by October. In September, supply delivery fell with LNG Canada shipping only four cargoes and just 0.3mn tonnes of the super-cooled gas. And in August, the facility exported 0.4mn tonnes of LNG, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Nevertheless, production has been ramped up and in early November, the plant’s second liquefaction unit, which also has a capacity of 6.5mn tpy, began producing the super-chilled fuel. Beyond Japan, cargoes have also been shipped to South Korea and Malaysia. Despite steps in the right direction, another setback occurred when the plant also announced on November 20 that it would continue with flaring for Train 2. It marked a second extension of flaring activities, which were originally scheduled to be finished on November 10. A restart of Train 2 is slated for December 1, which will run for about two weeks. Operating at full capacity, LNG Canada will be able to pull in about 2bn cubic feet (57mn cubic metres) per day of natural gas or roughly 730bn cubic feet (20.7bn cubic metres) per year.

Re-Start Planned for LNG Canada Train 2 --LNG Canada issued a notice on November 20 that it planned to continue additional flaring activities associated with the commissioning of Train 2 beyond the scheduled November 20 ending, itself extended beyond the original ending date of November 10. It also gave notice that a re-start of Train 2 would take place on December 1 and run for approximately two weeks. It was on November 6 that LNG Canada issued a notice that Train 2 had begun production of LNG after an initial start up on October 6. Commissioning and testing activities at the LNG Canada site have been ongoing since June when increased gas intake began with the initial start-up of Train 1. Based on estimates published in RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard, daily gas intake to LNG Canada recently reached 1 Bcf on November 12 (blue circle in chart above). Intake rates have been highly variable in the past two months as commissioning and testing activities have been ongoing for Train 2.It was also reported that with a tanker departure on November 20, that 25 cargoes of LNG have been shipped from LNG Canada summing to approximately 85 Bcfe. RBN estimates that there will be six cargoes loaded in November (red column in chart above), which would bring the total number of shipments to 27 since first departure on June 30.LNG Canada is a two train LNG liquefaction facility located outside the town of Kitimat, BC with a nameplate capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa), or approximately 2.1 Bcf/d of gas intake at full utilization. A second phase expansion of the site, which would double its production capacity, was prioritized by the Canadian federal government on September 11 as part of a first tranche of projects referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO). The MPO was established in August as a federal agency intended to streamline regulatory approvals and help secure financing for projects earmarked by the federal government as being in the “national interest“. Discussions remain ongoing by the LNG Canada consortium as to the timing of a potential second phase expansion.

Rep. Maria Salazar Says US Needs To Invade Venezuela So US Oil Companies Can Have a 'Field Day' - Amid the US push toward a war to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Rep. Maria Salazar (R-FL) has made the argument that the US must “go in” to Venezuela so American oil companies can have a “field day” since the country sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world.“Venezuela, for those Americans who do not understand why we need to go in … Venezuela, for the American oil companies, will be a field day, because it will be more than a trillion dollars in economic activity,” Salazar, a Miami-born daughter of Cuban exiles, told Fox Business.Salazar also said that the US must go to war with Venezuela because it has become the “launching pad” for people who “hate” the US, claiming Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are active in the country. In one of the more absurd claims she made in the interview, Salazar said Maduro was “giving uranium to Hamas, and to Iran, and to North Korea, and Nicaragua.”Salazar’s third reason for going to war with Venezuela is the claim that Maduro is the leader of the so-called Cartel of the Suns, or Cartel de los Soles, a group that doesn’t actually exist. The term was first used in the early 1990s to describe Venezuelan generals with sun insignias on their uniforms who were involved in cocaine trafficking and were actuallyworking with the CIA at the time. Today, the Cartel of the Suns is used to describe a network of Venezuelan officials allegedly involved in the drug trade, but it doesn’t exist as a structured organization. Regardless, the US State Department has labeled the Cartel of the Suns a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” and claims Maduro is its leader, giving the administration a potential pretext to launch a war, though any attack on Venezuela without congressional authorization would be illegal, per the US Constitution. Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader and this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, has also been spreading false and unsubstantiated claims about Maduro and his government to get the US to invade. In an effort to appeal to President Trump, Machado has claimed that Maduro “rigged elections” in the US.

Explosive LNG Demand Reshaping Global Markets as U.S. Feed Gas Forecast to Double by 2030 -- Natural gas and LNG are fast becoming the gravitational center of the global energy system, but some energy experts said the world is only beginning to grasp the scale of what’s to come. Line chart titled “NGI’s Henry Hub Forward Fixed Price Curve” showing U.S. natural gas forward prices from early 2026 through late 2027, with values starting near $4.60/MMBtu, dipping below $3.70/MMBtu mid-2026, peaking above $5.00/MMBtu in early 2027, then declining before a modest recovery toward $4.00/MMBtu by late 2027. At A Glance:
Domestic natural gas exports dominate
Infrastructure limits tighten markets
Volatile benchmarks reshape trade

Ukraine Peace Push Crushes TTF as War Risk Premium Fades — LNG Recap - European natural gas prices hit the lowest point in more than a year on Monday as prospects again emerged to end the war in Ukraine and fundamentals stayed weak. Chart showing spot LNG vessel rates in USD/day as of Nov. 24, 2025, comparing West and East basin prices for three carrier types: 174k XDF/MEGI ($160,000 West, $78,000 East), 155k–165k TFDE ($100,000 West, $62,000 East), and 138k–145k steam turbine ($30,000 West, $20,000 East), along with Pacific, Middle East, and Atlantic voyage parameters indicating 100% fuel and hire on ballast bonus to load port, sourced from Fearnleys. At A Glance:
TTF nears $10
Freight rates pressure JKM higher
U.S. natural gas production hits record

LNG demand for ships set to at least double by 2030 globally - Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel will at least double by 2030 as abundant supply and rising emissions regulations spur orders for ships that can run on it, industry executives said. Massive LNG export projects in the US and Qatar are expected to cause a supply glut by 2030, reducing prices and improving its competitiveness against conventional and more-polluting fuel oil. LNG is pulling ahead of other fuels in decarbonising shipping, which accounts for nearly 3 per cent of emissions, as supply and infrastructure hurdles cloud the outlook for cleaner alternatives methanol and ammonia. “Owners ultimately will choose the fuel that gives you the lowest cost,” said Tuomas Maljanen, associate director for LNG and new energy at shipbroker Fearnleys. “LNG is great because the infrastructure is there. It’s readily available ... maybe later on it’s going to be, hopefully, quite cheap as well,” he added. Singapore, the top bunkering hub, led global LNG bunkering activity in the third quarter, followed by China and the Netherlands, according to consultancy Rystad Energy, and it plans to issue additional bunker supply licences. Global LNG bunkering volumes could surpass four million tonnes by end-2025 and double by 2030, said Jo Friedmann, senior vice-president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy. French energy major TotalEnergies expects global LNG and bio-LNG bunker demand to surge to 15 million tonnes by 2030. Some 781 dual-fuelled ships can now use LNG, according to ship certifier DNV.

Chinese LNG demand looks set to disappoint for yet another year - The Business Times - Chinese liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are at risk of another weak year as disappointing industrial demand and persistently high global prices look set to reduce purchases. Imports will fall about 5 per cent to 73 million tonnes this year, meaning China may lose its position as the world’s biggest buyer of the super-chilled fuel to Japan, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF). The outlook for 2026 is also not encouraging: Overall gas demand is set to slump, suggesting it has decoupled with GDP growth, BNEF analysts said at a summit this week. China was the fastest-growing LNG market before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a surge in spot prices. Back then, Asia’s largest economy had been expected by BNEF to get to 100 million tonnes of imports by this year, but analysts have been forced to repeatedly downgrade their outlooks on persistently weaker-than-expected demand. A wave of new global LNG supply will probably reduce spot prices next year and potentially spur some additional Chinese buying, but the demand picture remains shaky. There’s been a decline in industrial activity across the steel, glass and cement sectors, key sources of LNG consumption, and Beijing’s campaigns to tackle overcapacity, as well as the trade war with the US, could also dampen purchases. Gas-fired power plants are facing intense competition from coal and rapidly expanding renewables such as solar and wind. The utilisation rate of facilities that burn gas has dropped to the lower end of the five-year seasonal range, as rising LNG costs force them to curb generation. Chinese LNG buyers, meanwhile, have more long-term supply contracts starting next year, but given that demand is deteriorating, they may choose to divert some fuel to places such as Europe, where prices are higher. This is likely to cement China’s role in balancing the global gas market, as companies there shift to becoming traders as well as consumers. “The path to portfolio trading is not by choice, but rather necessity,” Zhang Yaoyu, global head of LNG and new energies at PetroChina International, said at the BNEF Shanghai Summit on Wednesday. From a long-term perspective, Chinese gas demand is still supported by the expansion of import terminals, with capacity potentially doubling by 2030. But whether those facilities will be fully utilised will depend on price and demand.

Frustrated – Complex Projects, Unpredictable Events Make Adding Refining Capacity a Global Challenge | RBN Energy -- Building and expanding refineries has always been a challenging task, and it’s only gotten tougher and pricier lately. Getting a new project off the ground requires effectively managing many complex moving parts, including securing capital, procuring skilled engineers and craftsmen, and operating within a supportive government and economic climate. But even with all those pieces in place, projects can unravel fast if global politics shift, the economy sours, or unpredictable developments, such as wars, pandemics, or any number of other such “black swan” events, hit. In today’s RBN blog, we share our thoughts on refinery projects across the globe. In Part 1 of this series, we outlined the massive challenges and cost/schedule overruns facing the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the Dos Bocas (Olmeca) refinery in Mexico. But the difficulties in adding refining capacity are far from isolated to those two sites, as projects across the globe have faced similar headaches, even in the U.S. (although not nearly to the same degree). A recent example is the $2 billion, 250-Mb/d expansion at ExxonMobil’s Beaumont, TX, refinery, which, while overall very successful, especially regarding the project execution factors within their control, had a more than yearlong delay due to the impact of COVID shutdowns and the resulting drop in refined products demand before starting up in 2023.Too often, we at RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice notice that many potential roadblocks, such as economic downturns and regulatory developments, aren’t factored into a project’s chances for success. As a result, startup timelines, operating performance and other variables for new projects are often overly optimistic. We share a more grounded, realistic view of the elements that contribute to successful projects when crafting our refinery project forecasts, including the consideration of differences in regional markets, which will influence future refinery capacity developments. Figure 1 below shows RFA’s overall view of the global refinery market, with a high-level, qualitative assessment of those regional factors.In our biannual Future of Fuels report (the next edition is out in January 2026), we have a Probable List and a Watch List of refinery projects. The Probable List includes projects we expect to start up in the next five years, along with important details for each, including startup timing, crude capacity, type of crude expected to be processed, product yields by type, downstream unit capacities, project cost and other relevant attributes. The much larger Watch List identifies projects that have been proposed and, in some cases, are even in advanced development, but which we don’t expect to come online within our five-year forecast timeframe. What follows is a sneak peek of our forecast (which we are constantly updating), showing how we expect things to play out by region.

• Asia continues to be the most active region for refinery investments (largely due to continued strong regional demand growth) but most of the proposed projects land in “watch-and-wait territory” (i.e., the Watch List) rather than the “ready-to-go list” (the Probable List). While China has led the world in capacity additions since 2000 (singlehandedly accounting for almost 60% of global growth), it is handing this mantle off to India (just as India takes over the lead in domestic demand growth and Chinese demand levels off). We see India leading the region (and the world) in refinery capacity additions through the end of the decade, driven by a flurry of state-backed projects, most of which are brownfield expansions of existing refineries, with about 900 Mb/d of additions expected by 2030. Most of these are likely to start up in the next two years, and project execution in India has generally been more efficient than in many other parts of the world. Even there, however, we have seen delays vs. original timelines, some of which called for startup this year. India has a stated goal of reaching 9 MMb/d of refining capacity by 2040 (vs. the current 5.3 MMb/d), which we believe is overly ambitious, but considering the long list of proposed projects, continued economic and demand growth and a history of successful project execution, we expect it will continue to be firmly in the global lead for capacity expansions for the foreseeable future.
• Across Asia Pacific, China has publicly said it’s stepping back from adding new fuel production (and even continuing its program of shutting down older, less efficient plants), but one big project is about to hit the finish line: the 300-Mb/d greenfield HAPCO Panjin refinery, located in the northeast province of Liaoning. The $12 billion-plus project is a joint venture between NORINCO Group, Saudi Aramco and PXI and ties closely to a large petrochemical complex. While the sponsors say the startup is coming in 2026, we don’t expect it to be fully operational until 2027 (and perhaps later). Elsewhere in the region, most proposed projects are even further out, likely after 2030. But two expansions look promising: brownfield expansions/upgrades at Pertamina’s Balikpapan refinery in Indonesia and Thai Oil’s Sriracha refinery. Both aim to boost clean product output and increase their ability to handle heavier crudes. Balikpapan’s phased startup runs from late this year through 2027, while Thai Oil’s Clean Fuels Project is expected to start up in a similar phased approach over the next three years (through 2028) after several delays.
• Just like China, refinery investment in the Middle East has cooled. Bahrain’s BAPCO is wrapping up its Sitra expansion of +133 Mb/d, marking the end of a long wave of new projects. The biggest change comes from Saudi Arabia, which has stepped off the fuel-capacity expansion treadmill, canceling its giant Ras Al Khair crude-to-chemicals plant. It is now shifting investment to Asia, with a focus on India and the Panjin refinery in China (which we just discussed). Iran and Iraq talk big about expansion plans, but amid ongoing political instability, we believe most of these projects face limited chances of success over the next several years. One project, the 120-Mb/d Persian Gulf Star II expansion in Iran, could come online by 2029, although it is focused on condensate rather than crude oil. Two others, the Al-Faw refinery near Basra (300 Mb/d) and the al-Diwaniya expansion (70 Mb/d), both in Iraq and involving Chinese partners, are among the more likely projects on our Watch List which could eventually be upgraded to Probable.
• We discussed Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in our previous blog but we’re also watching other projects in development in Africa. Elsewhere in Nigeria, the rehabilitation of four long-idled refineries remains a high-risk play with one small unit at “Old” Port Harcourt limping along, but the other three (Warri, Kaduna and “New” Port Harcourt) remain more contractor headlines than credible capacity additions. We should also note that the recent announcement of another mega-refinery project (500 Mb/d) in Nigeria’s Ondo State is even more of a “dream” and is unlikely to move beyond the conceptual phase in our opinion. Africa’s key mover after Nigeria is Angola, where four joint ventures totaling 360 Mb/d of refining capacity are at varying stages of development; Ghana’s Sentuo refinery expansion could also add 55 Mb/d by the end of the decade, but that hinges on political approvals and available financing.
• We believe it’s more of the same for Latin America. Several countries have had ambitious refinery plans (similar to Dos Bocas), but most haven’t gone anywhere. The region has seen no increase in capacity and an actual drop in crude throughput by about 1.9 MMb/d since 2000. Looking forward, a few projects on our Watch List are attracting a lot of attention, but we think they are highly uncertain. In Mexico, in addition to the Dos Bocas refinery, Pemex has long promoted delayed coker projects at Tula (83 Mb/d) and Salina Cruz (70 Mb/d). While some progress has been made at Tula (and Pemex has repeatedly announced an imminent startup over the past couple of years), we forecast a 2027 startup, which is subject to further downgrade; the Salina Cruz coker is very unlikely to be complete before the end of the decade, if ever. Petrobras’s RNEST refinery in Abreu e Lima, Brazil, reportedly completed a small project to restore 15 Mb/d of capacity this year and is moving forward on a second 130-Mb/d train, but while they are promoting a startup date of 2029, we believe it is aspirational at best for 2030 or later.
• As for Europe and Russia, decreasing capacity (or, in Russia’s case, throughput) is the story for the future. Europe has lost more than 3.5 MMb/d of refining capacity (about 25%) over the past two decades, including almost 500 Mb/d this year, and we can expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future amid declining demand driven by “green” forces and negative demographic trends. For Russia, its previously ambitious program to upgrade and modernize its refineries has ended abruptly due to its ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine and has led to a very bleak refining outlook. Drone strikes and sanctions have significantly eroded throughput, which in the last couple of months has fallen below 5 MMb/d, almost 800 Mb/d below pre-war levels. Further drops are likely as Ukraine continues to pound the refineries with drones, with the possibility of ballistic missiles being added to the mix in the coming weeks. We expect a slow bleed to continue through the decade’s end and perhaps further. However, the outlook depends heavily on how the war plays out and what happens next regarding Russia’s geopolitical policies.

Summing up, we expect global petroleum demand to keep growing through the next decade, which means more refining capacity will be needed. But adding that capacity remains very challenging and definitely “easier said than done” for all the reasons discussed above. Headline startup dates can’t be taken at face value, and many of the same problems that have affected Dangote and Dos Bocas will continue to impact the many projects under development throughout the world, requiring a high degree of diligence in evaluating their prospects.

False-Flag Tankers Shipped Russian Oil Worth $5.4 Billion This Year -Tankers of the Russian shadow fleet have increased the use of flying false flags this year and exported $5.4 billion (4.7 billion euros) worth of Russian oil between January and September, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a new report.A total of 113 Russian ‘shadow’ vessels flew a false flag during their operations in the first nine months of 2025, the analysis found.In volumes, 13% of Russian oil transported by ‘shadow’ vessels between January and September 2025 took place on vessels flying a false flag, the Helsinki-based CREA said. The think tank found that there were 90 vessels that have operated under false flags in September 2025, a six-fold surge compared to December 2024. A total of 52 of these vessels have traded at least once in the third quarter of 2025, according to the analysis, which monitored tanker routes and open flag registries.These open registries — also known colloquially as flags of convenience — are favored by shippers due to lower regulatory burdens and registration costs than closed registries, which also require a direct link between the vessel and the nation state.But this year, following the EU, UK, and U.S. sanctions on tankers, many open registries have deflagged sanctioned vessels, and have been reluctant to allow new ‘shadow’ vessels to enter their fleet. A reluctance among traditional open registries to offer their services to the ‘shadow’ fleet has seen the proliferation of many new registries with little to no history on maritime transport, CREA said.“The most frequently used false flag is that of Malawi. The first such case occurred in June 2025, and since then, 24 vessels have flown Malawi’s flag while carrying Russian oil. Every one of these vessels is sanctioned,” CREA said.Contacted by Indian outlet PTI to shed light on false-flagging operations to ship Russian crude to India, CREA said its analysis found 30 such vessels shipped crude oil to India in the first nine months of 2025, with the value of the crude estimated at $2.4 billion (2.1 billion euros).“The number of Russian 'shadow' tankers sailing under false flags is now increasing at an alarming rate,” Luke Wickenden, Energy Analyst and co-author of the report, told PTI.“False-flagged vessels carried EUR 1.4 billion worth of Russian crude oil and oil products through the Danish Straits in September alone.”

JP Morgan Says Oil Prices Could Plunge Into $30s By 2027 -The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast posted by users on X. Brent Crude prices have dropped by 14% year to date, and traded relatively stable at $62.59 per barrel early on Monday, as the oil market awaits news from the renewed negotiations on peace in Ukraine. The U.S. and Ukraine held on Sunday in Geneva what the two sides described as “highly productive” talks and agreed to continue intensive work on a “refined” peace plan, which the U.S. first proposed last week. Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas. Peace in Ukraine could also weigh on energy prices as some sanctions and restrictions on Russia could be eased, analysts say. Oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.The investment bank’s call for next year is that oil prices are on track for further declines and investors should short oil right now, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week.

Oil Prices Decline on Approaching Peace Talks... Oil prices fell on Monday, continuing the losses incurred last week, amid approaching peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and a stronger U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures dropped 14 cents, or 0.22%, to $62.42 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 15 cents, or 0.26%, to $57.91 per barrel. Both benchmark crude oils declined by nearly 3% last week, reaching their lowest levels since October 21, as market participants feared that a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal could lift sanctions on Moscow and flood the market with previously restricted supplies. On Sunday, the United States and Ukraine said they had made progress in talks on a peace plan that would require Kyiv to cede territory and abandon plans to join NATO. U.S. President Donald Trump set a deadline for next Thursday, despite European leaders pushing for a better deal. A peace agreement could potentially lead to a rollback of sanctions that have restrained Russian oil exports. Russia was the world’s second-largest crude oil producer after the United States in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Investor appetite was also dampened by the prospect of more oil entering the market and uncertainty over potential U.S. interest rate cuts. However, the probability of a rate cut next month rose after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested lowering rates “in the near term.” The dollar is on track for its largest weekly gain in six weeks, with the dollar index reaching its highest level since late May. A stronger U.S. dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The Market Weighed the Possibility of a Ukraine Peace Deal - The crude market rallied higher on Monday as the market weighed the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal and the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut. On Monday, the crude market tested Friday’s low of $57.42 as it posted a low of $57.42 as the U.S. and Ukraine were continuing their talks for a second day to modify a U.S. peace proposal. However, as the market held support at its previous low, the market retraced its losses and rallied higher. The market was supported by the strength seen in the equities market amid increased expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December. The January WTI contract rallied to a high of $58.94 ahead of the close and settled up 78 cents $58.84. The oil market continued to trend higher and posted a high of $59.06 in the post settlement period. The January Brent contract ended the session up 81 cents at $63.37. Meanwhile, the product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 5.03 cents at $2.4061 and the RB market settling up 1.32 cents at $1.8966. The United States and Ukraine sought on Monday to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the war with Russia after agreeing to modify a U.S. proposal calling for concessions from Kyiv. The U.S. and Ukraine said in a joint statement they had drafted a “refined peace framework” after talks in Geneva on Sunday. The White House Press Secretary said the U.S. and Ukraine had productive talks and added that there remained just “a couple of points of disagreement.” She said there was no meeting scheduled this week between President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The Kremlin said that a European counter-proposal to a U.S. 28-point peace plan for Ukraine was not constructive and that it simply did not work for Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that U.S. proposals for peace in Ukraine could be the basis of a resolution of the conflict but that if Kyiv turned down the plan then Russian forces would advance further. Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that China’s President Xi Jinping held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday. JPMorgan forecast Brent crude at $57/barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $53/barrel in 2027, while keeping its 2026 estimates unchanged at $58/barrel and $54/barrel, respectively. JPMorgan expects global oil demand to increase by 900,000 bpd in 2025 to 105.5 million bpd. Similar gains are expected in 2026 before accelerating to 1.2 million bpd in 2027. Global oil supply is forecast to outpace demand, growing at three times the rate of demand in both 2025 and 2026 before slowing to about one-third of that pace in 2027. It said that about half of the supply gains will come from non-OPEC+ producers, driven by strong offshore projects and continued momentum in global shale output. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 187,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 458,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 54,000 bpd in the week ending December 5th.

Oil prices settle up 1% on bets Fed will cut US rates and doubts about Ukraine peace (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday on increased bets of a U.S. interest rate cut in December and mounting doubts about whether Russia will get a peace deal with Ukraine that will boost Moscow's oil exports. Brent futures rose 81 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $63.37 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 78 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $58.84. Sign up here. On Friday, both crude benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since October 21. The U.S. and Ukraine sought to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war after a U.S. proposal that Kyiv and its European allies viewed as a Kremlin wish list. Recent price weakness was driven mainly by reported progress in Ukraine–Russia peace negotiations, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "However, we feel that a reduction of more than 5% of risk premium is excessive," they added, pointing to the potential for the war to drag on, re-injecting geopolitical risk into oil futures. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, which took effect on Friday, have caused friction that would normally boost prices, but the market is preoccupied by the peace talks, said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital. Russian state oil and gas revenue could fall in November by around 35% year-on-year to 520 billion roubles ($6.59 billion), owing to cheaper oil and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Monday. European Council President Antonio Costa hailed the "new momentum" in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and pledged that the European Union will keep supporting Ukraine. U U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said available data indicates that the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut. Lower rates could boost economic growth and oil demand. Global brokerages remain split on whether the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting after last week's mixed signals on job growth and unemployment. In Germany, business morale fell unexpectedly in November, a survey showed, as companies grew more pessimistic about chances of economic recovery. JPMorgan forecast Brent crude at $57 a barrel and WTI at $53 in 2027 while keeping its 2026 estimates unchanged at $58 and $54 respectively. The U.S. formally designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, layering additional terrorism-related sanctions on the group it has said includes President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking officials. U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), help support oil prices by limiting the South American country's exports. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a "very good" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders discussed the war in Ukraine, fentanyl trafficking and a deal for farmers. Energy traders see positive discussions between the world's two biggest economies as supportive of oil demand.

Oil Prices Slip Again As Oversupply Fears Rise And Ukraine Talks Drag On -- Oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday, extending a cautious mood across global energy markets as traders weighed growing concerns of a supply surplus against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While sanctions on Russian exports remain firmly in place, expectations of looser supply-demand balances next year are shaping a more bearish outlook for crude. Brent crude fell by 27 cents to settle at $63.10 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 23 cents to $58.61 during early Asian trading hours, reported Reuters. The modest decline follows a 1.3 per cent rise on Monday, when fading hopes of a breakthrough in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war temporarily buoyed prices. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, analysts say the momentum remains fragile. Sanctions on Russian crude and refined products continue to disrupt flows, yet forecasts suggest the real driver of market sentiment is a looming imbalance in 2026. "In the short-term, the key risk is oversupply and current price levels seem vulnerable," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. Fresh sanctions on oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil have complicated Moscow’s ability to place its barrels, particularly after Europe tightened rules on purchasing refined products made from Russian crude. The restrictions have squeezed demand from some Indian refiners, including private-sector giant Reliance, which has reportedly scaled back purchases. With fewer willing buyers, Russia is increasingly turning eastwards. Alexander Novak, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, told a China–Russia business forum in Beijing that Moscow and Beijing have been exploring ways to deepen their energy partnership and expand oil shipments to China. This pivot underscores how Russia is reconfiguring its energy export strategy amid Western pressure, yet even these new avenues may not be enough to offset a globally softer demand outlook. Across major financial institutions, the consensus is shifting towards a view that crude markets may be heading for a prolonged period of oversupply. A note from Deutsche Bank on Monday projected a 2026 surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day, with "no clear path back to deficits even by 2027," according to analyst Michael Hsueh. Such forecasts have overshadowed the lack of progress in the Ukraine peace negotiations. If talks eventually succeed, the lifting of sanctions could flood the market with previously restricted Russian supply, adding further strain to already loose fundamentals. Still, not all sentiment is bearish. Oil markets have found pockets of support amid increased expectations of a US interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. Several Fed officials have signalled their backing for looser monetary policy, sparking optimism that cheaper borrowing could stimulate economic activity and, in turn, energy demand. "The oil market is in a tug-of-war between a caution-driven supply overhang and demand hopes predicated on easier monetary policy," Sachdeva noted.

Oil Prices Sink as Ukraine Agrees to Peace Deal -Oil prices extended losses early on Tuesday after news broke that Ukraine has mostly agreed to a peace deal, with “minor details” to discuss and settle. As of 8:35a.m. ET on Tuesday, the U.S. benchmark crude futures, WTI Crude, dropped by 1.29% to further slip below $60 per barrel, at $58.08. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was trading down by 1.23% at $62.59. Prices reacted to reports early on Tuesday that the U.S. plan for peace in Ukraine has received support from Ukrainians. The development added to persistent concerns about an already oversupplied oil market. “The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” a U.S. official told CBS News today. “There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal,” the U.S. official added. Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, posted on X early on Tuesday “We appreciate the productive and constructive meetings held in Geneva between the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations, as well as President Trump’s steadfast efforts to end the war.” “Our delegations reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva,” Umerov added. “We now count on the support of our European partners in our further steps. We look forward to organizing a visit of Ukraine’s President to the US at the earliest suitable date in November to complete final steps and make a deal with President Trump.” A peace deal that President Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could agree on as early this week is weighing on oil prices as traders expect that some sanctions on Russia’s energy industry and exports could be eased. While Ukraine and the U.S. were negotiating in Geneva, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll was in Abu Dhabi for discussions with Russian officials, sources told CBS News. As of early Tuesday, there was no reaction or comment from Russia on a peace deal.

Oil falls as Ukraine signals support for framework of Russia peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices settled over 1% lower on Tuesday after Ukraine hinted that an intense diplomatic push by the U.S. administration to end Russia's war against it could be yielding fruit. An end to the war in Ukraine could pave the way for the unwinding of Western sanctions against Moscow's energy trade, potentially adding more supply at a time when commodity prices have been battered by expectations of a glut next year. Brent crude futures fell 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 89 cents, or 1.5%, to $57.95 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since October 22 during intraday trading. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could visit the U.S. in the next few days to finalise a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war, Kyiv's national security chief Rustem Umerov said. Still, Russia stressed it would not let any deal stray too far from its objectives, which helped keep oil's losses in check as Russia's position raises doubts about whether a formal agreement will be reached, said Ed Hayden-Briffett, oil analyst at Onyx Capital Group. The uncertainty was underscored by Russia's barrage of missiles on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Tuesday, which killed six people, wounded 13, and disrupted electricity and heating systems. "It needs two to tango, and it remains unclear if Russia agrees as well," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. The difficult part of negotiations to end the war is yet to come, with major gaps between the parties needing to be filled, analysts at oil trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates cautioned. A growing consensus of experts forecasts that crude oil supply growth in 2026 will exceed gains in demand. Deutsche Bank sees a surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day next year and no clear path back to deficits even by 2027, it said in a note on Monday. A peace deal could help Russia raise oil production to its agreed OPEC+ volume, Commerzbank Research analysts said. Sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil and rules against selling oil products refined from Russian crude to Europe have pushed some Indian refiners to cut back their purchases of Russian oil. That has caused a decline in Russian oil exports and an increase in crude oil from Russia stored in tankers at sea, which would become available if a peace deal leads to lifting sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Commerzbank noted. Russia has also been discussing ways to expand exports to China, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday. U.S. crude stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. U.S. crude stocks were previously estimated in a Reuters poll to have risen by 1.86 million barrels in the week ended November 21.

Oil prices recover amid Ukraine peace hopes and Fed rate bets - – Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after falling to one-month lows in the previous session, as optimism grew over a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. The deal could ease international sanctions on Russian energy exports, influencing global supply. Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.67 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 14 cents, or 0.24%, to $58.09 a barrel as of 0114 GMT. Both contracts had settled down 89 cents on Tuesday. The recent dip followed remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who told European leaders that only a few points of disagreement remained in a U.S.-backed framework to end the war with Russia. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that if finalized, the agreement could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions, potentially pushing WTI prices toward $55. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his representatives will meet separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials, while Zelenskiy may travel to the United States soon to finalize the deal. Meanwhile, Russian oil exports to key buyers like India are expected to hit a three-year low in December, amid tightened sanctions by Britain, Europe, and the United States. Crude prices also received modest support from expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Recent economic data, showing weaker retail spending and softer inflation, suggest the Fed may lower rates, which could boost economic growth and oil demand. Traders remain cautious, monitoring developments in Ukraine peace talks and U.S. monetary policy. Analysts note that while optimism supports oil, the risk of lower prices remains if talks proceed smoothly and sanctions are eased.

WTI Steady Near One-Month Lows Amid Peace Deal Talk, Record Crude Production - Oil prices are steady this morning near one month lows, after a tempestuous few days swinging around Russia peace deal headlines.US President Donald Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.”Goldman said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 next year.“That would put Brent in 2026 in the low $50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV. API reported a lackluster set of inventory data that calmed the market too...

• Crude -1.86mm
• Cushing
• Gasoline +539k
• Distillates +753k

DOE:

• Crude +2.774mm
• Cushing -68k
• Gasoline +2.513mm
• Distillates +1.147mm

US Crude stocks rose for the 3rd time in the last four weeks as did product inventories... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. ... while Cushing stocks continue to test 'tank bottoms'... US Crude production continues to hover near record highs... WTI is hovering around $58, near one month lows...Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy Western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.“Minute adjustments between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU on proposed peace deals have been carefully digested by the market,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.“Any positive signs of collaboration or agreement have resulted in short-term sell-offs, while the dialing-back of enthusiasm has bolstered prices.” Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

Oil edges up as investors await clarity on supply, Russia-Ukraine deal (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up on Wednesday, bouncing back from one-month lows in the previous session, as investors assessed prospects of oversupply and talks over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Brent crude futures settled 65 cents, or 1.04%, higher to $63.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 70 cents, or 1.21%, at $58.65. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels last week as imports surged, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 55,000-barrel rise. "We are definitely on the road to a rather healthy supply glut, there is no doubt about it, and the crude build is indicative of that," U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil rigs by 12 to 407 this week, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Wednesday. OPEC+ is likely to leave output levels unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Offering some support to crude prices were rising expectations for a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Lower rates would stimulate economic growth and bolster demand for oil. Investors awaited more clarity on Russia and Ukraine negotiations on Wednesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told European leaders on Tuesday that he was ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework for ending the war with Russia, driving both Brent crude and WTI down to one-month lows. "The bottom line is, there's still no peace agreement and it's going to be difficult to satisfy all the parties to come to the table and sign one," Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. President Donald Trump said he directed his representatives to meet separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials. A Ukrainian official said Zelenskiy could visit the United States in the next few days to finalize a deal. "If finalized, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports," potentially driving WTI prices to about $55, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note. "For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter." The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles about 1.5% of global oil, said it resumed oil loadings overnight, having suspended loadings after a Ukrainian drone attack earlier in the week.

Oil prices settle up in low volume on US holiday; Russia-Ukraine talks in focus - CNA Oil prices rose on Thursday as market participants weighed the likelihood that talks to end the war in Ukraine will yield an agreement, with trading volume thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Brent crude futures settled up 21 cents, or 0.2 per cent, at $63.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.8 per cent, at $59.10 a barrel by 1:46 p.m. ET (1846 GMT). The market is swinging between hope and skepticism over renewed peace efforts in Ukraine, SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye said. U.S. and Ukrainian delegations are to meet this week to work out a formula discussed at talks in Geneva to bring peace and provide security guarantees for Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. The two sides have been trying to narrow gaps over President Donald Trump's plan to end Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. Kyiv remains wary of accepting a deal largely on Russian terms, including territorial concessions. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the outlines of a draft peace plan discussed by the U.S. and Ukraine could become the basis of agreements to end the war. Putin also said that once Ukrainian troops withdraw from key areas, the fighting will stop, but Russia will achieve its objectives by force if that does not happen. "Geopolitical volatility continues and hopes of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have neutralized the supply concerns arising from new U.S. sanctions on key Russian producers," Barclays said in a note. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at their meetings on Sunday and to agree on a mechanism to assess members' maximum output capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters. Eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising production in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged, the two delegates said. Crude prices were also supported by rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. A lower rate typically stimulates economic growth and bolsters demand for oil. "We are now approaching the year-end with thinner liquidity without any new drivers unless the Fed surprises the markets with a hawkish guidance on the 10 December FOMC meeting," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. "WTI crude is likely to be range-bound between US$56.80 and US$60.40 till year-end," he said.

Oil steady ahead of key OPEC+ meeting, Fed rate cut expectations -Oil prices slightly rose on Friday as investors awaited an OPEC+ decision on output strategy while monitoring peace efforts between Moscow and Kyiv. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.06 per barrel at 09.36 a.m. local time (06.36 GMT), up 0.4% from the previous close of $62.83. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained unchanged at $58.96 compared to the prior session. Efforts to advance a peace framework for the Russia-Ukraine war, expectations around an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, and projections of a US interest rate cut in December drove volatility in oil prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Thursday that a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials took place last week in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, at the initiative of Kyiv. Speaking at a news conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan's capital, Putin said the meeting was attended by "a US administration representative" and that the event took place at Kyiv's initiative. Putin said the US has informed Moscow it would send a delegation in the first half of the coming week, adding that its composition is "solely Washington's decision." He said that following negotiations between the American and Ukrainian delegations in Geneva, the parties decided to divide the proposal into four distinct parts. These developments have reinforced expectations that sanctions-driven restrictions on Russian oil exports could be loosened, reducing geopolitical risk premiums and allowing Russian supplies to reach global markets more steadily — a scenario that could add downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, eight OPEC+ member states — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are scheduled to meet online on Sunday to review production strategy. The group agreed on Nov. 2 to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December and to pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The absence of major policy changes is seen as supportive for prices, as stable supply outlooks help ease market uncertainty. Market sentiment is also underpinned by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in December, a move anticipated to bolster economic growth and oil demand.

Brent Softens as Oil Prices Head for Fourth Monthly Drop -- Brent futures were mixed Friday, Nov. 28, morning as the oil complex was heading for the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Due to a technical issue at CME, trading of WTI, RBOB and ULSD futures was halted early in the morning but was subsequently restored. The front-month WTI futures contract edged up 0.29 to $58.94 bbl, while the ICE Brent futures contract for January delivery dropped 0.025 to $63.09 bbl. Downstream, the ULSD futures contract for December delivery was up $0.374 to $2.3629 gallon. Meanwhile, the December RBOB futures contract increased $0.0398 to $1.9288 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index also strengthened by 0.088 points to 99.78 against a basket of foreign currencies. Front-month crude futures softened by around 3% in November. Over the past four months, they slipped by close to 15% as it became evident the market was heading into oversupply. Global supply additions rapidly outpaced demand growth this year, and while a lower oil price will take some wind out of the sails of production growth, this trend is likely to continue in 2026. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been ramping up output since April and is planning a modest increase in December. This is expected to be the last quota hike. Members are meeting this Sunday to set production policy for next year and will likely stick to their plan to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026. In the U.S., oil inventories continued to expand. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, Nov. 26, reported builds to crude oil, gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel stocks in the week ended Nov. 21. While ULSD inventories remain limited, the tightness has eased over the last few weeks, with stocks now trailing year-ago levels by 4.3%. The EIA is set to release monthly oil statistics for September today. Monthly data provide a better view of market balances than weekly estimates, particularly when it comes to oil products supplied to the domestic market, a proxy figure for fuels demand.

Oil falls on drawn-out Ukraine peace talks, all eyes on upcoming OPEC+ meeting (Reuters) - Crude futures fell marginally on Friday as investors considered oil's geopolitical risk premium amid drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while keeping an eye on Sunday's OPEC+ meeting for clues about potential output changes. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures resumed trading after being frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME Group, blamed on a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres. Brent trades on the Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE. Front-month Brent crude futures for January , which expire on Friday, settled down 14 cents, or 0.22%, at $63.20 a barrel. The more active February contract settled at $62.38, down 49 cents on Thursday's close. WTI crude settled at $58.55 a barrel, down 10 cents, or 0.17%, from Wednesday's close. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Despite being up around 1% for the week, both contracts settled down for the fourth straight month, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations for higher global supply weighed on prices. The strength of fuel refining profit margins has supported crude demand in some places, but the bearish impact of an expected oil surplus is pressuring prices, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. U.S. oil production rose to record highs in September, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday, deepening concerns that the market is heading towards a surplus. U.S. crude oil output rose 44,000 barrels per day in September to a record 13.84 million bpd, according to the EIA data. A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts showed respondents expect Brent to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October's forecast of $63.15. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far in 2025, LSEG data showed. Signs that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia might be close pushed oil prices down sharply earlier this week, but they have recovered over the past three sessions as negotiations dragged on. "Futures had been anticipating some sort of a peace agreement which has kept pressure on prices," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said in a note on Friday. "Still, little is known at this time, and no agreement will likely mean even tighter sanctions on Russia's oil exports." On Sunday, OPEC+ is likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at its meetings and to agree on a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with the group's talks told Reuters. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second month to its lowest in five years, under pressure from ample supplies and the surplus outlook, sources told Reuters on Friday.

Saudi Arabia Set to Slash Oil Prices to Asia for January -Saudi Arabia is expected to slash the prices for its crude bound for Asia in January to the lowest premium to benchmarks in five years, as the world’s largest crude exporter looks to preserve market share amid ample supply and falling spot Middle East benchmarks. Saudi oil giant Aramco will likely reduce the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude grade by $0.30-$0.40 per barrel to a premium of $0.60-$0.70 a barrel to the average Oman/Dubai benchmark for loadings to Asia in January, a Reuters survey of Asian refining sources showed on Friday.The premium to Oman/Dubai would be the lowest since January 2021, as the Saudis are expected to slash OSPs for the Asian market for a second consecutive month. Early in November, Saudi Arabia cut the price of Arab Light for Asia to a premium of $1.00 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for shipments in December, down from a $2.20 a barrel premium in October and November.Now the world’s top crude exporter is poised to further slash the prices of Arab Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy by between $0.30 and $0.50 per barrel, according to the Reuters survey of refiners.The move is widely expected by the market as the spot benchmarks in the Middle East, including the cash Dubai premium to swaps, have slipped by about $0.30 per barrel in November compared to October.Moreover, the market appears to be well supplied as OPEC+ raises output, and Saudi Arabia is raising production the most as its share of the quotas is the biggest.The pricing announcement from Saudi Arabia is expected next week, after the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, at which producers are expected to stick with their decision to pause oil production increases in the first quarter of 2026. Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes. It also sets the tone for the pricing of the other major oil producers in the Middle East, influencing the pricing policy of about 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of exports from the Arab Gulf region.

France and UK Insist on Sending Troops to Ukraine Despite Russia's Objection - France and the UK are still insisting that troops from NATO countries must be deployed to Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal, an idea that Russia has repeatedly rejected.French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer chaired a virtual meeting on Tuesday night of the so-called “coalition of the willing,” referring to countries willing to deploy troops to post-war Ukraine. According to POLITICO, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took part in the call and told the European officials that the US wants a peace deal before agreeing to any security guarantees for Ukraine.Starmer said during the meeting that a “multinational force” will play a “vital” role in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security. On Wednesday, Bloombergreported that British officials said the UK has already identified the military units it would send into Ukraine after “a series of reconnaissance visits in the country.” During the meeting on Tuesday, Macron suggested that the troops could be deployed in Kyiv and in parts of western Ukraine, so they’re not near the front lines. But Russian officials have made clear they wouldn’t accept any organized NATO force in Ukraine, regardless of where it’s located.The original 28-point Ukraine peace proposal drafted by the US, which was leaked to the media, included a blanket ban on the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine. A European counterproposal removed the total ban and says NATO would agree not to “permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime,” leaving open the possibility of rotational deployments.

Despite “ceasefires,” Israel massacres dozens in Gaza and Lebanon over the weekend - The Israeli military killed dozens of people in Gaza and Lebanon over the weekend, continuing its rampage throughout the Middle East under the cover of “ceasefires” in both Gaza and Lebanon. The massacres, which have become customary, have gone largely unreported in major newspapers, which have accepted the fraudulent proclamation by President Trump, as he put it on Friday, that “we actually have now for the first time, peace in the Middle East.” On Sunday, Israel carried out an airstrike in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, killing five people and wounding 28 more. The strike targeted the densely populated Haret Hreik area of the city. Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported that the attack was carried out by two missile strikes, which targeted an apartment building, damaging surrounding cars and buildings. Sunday’s attack follows a separate strike last week on a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon that killed 13 people. The attack, which killed mostly women and children, was the deadliest since the announcement of the “ceasefire” between Israel and Lebanon last November. Over the past year, Israel has killed over 300 people in Lebanon, including 127 civilians, according to figures from the United Nations. It likewise continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, despite agreeing to withdraw its troops from Lebanese territory as part of the “ceasefire.” The strike targeted and killed Ali Tabtabai, the acting chief of staff of Hezbollah. In September 2024, Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in a strike involving dozens of bunker-busting bombs. A White House official praised this weekend’s murderous attack, telling Israel’s Channel 12, “We are pleased with the elimination of the number two in Hezbollah,” adding, “We think it’s a wonderful thing.” After the attack, Netanyahu’s office boasted: “In the heart of Beirut, the IDF attacked the Hezbollah chief of staff, who had been leading the terrorist organization’s buildup and rearmament. Israel is determined to act to achieve its objectives everywhere and at all times.” Netanyahu threatened more violence. “We will continue to do whatever is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing its ability to threaten us,” he said. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the attacks, stating that his government “reiterates its call to the international community to assume its responsibility and intervene firmly and seriously to stop the attacks on Lebanon and its people.” Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, said, “The strike on the southern suburbs today opens the door to an escalation of assaults all over Lebanon.” The attacks on Lebanon are part of an ongoing and developing war in the Middle East and, in particular, are preparatory to any direct war by Israel against Iran. The Jerusalem Post commented on Sunday, “Israel now has tensions with Syria, as well as Lebanon, and in Gaza, the West Bank, and on other fronts. The Beirut strike may send a message to Iran.” On Saturday, Israel killed 24 people and wounded 80 more, including children, in attacks throughout Gaza. This followed a series of airstrikes in Gaza on Wednesday and Thursday that killed 33 Palestinians. The strikes bring the number of people killed by Israel in Gaza since the announcement of a “ceasefire” between Israel and Hamas a month ago to over 312, with 760 more wounded. It has leveled 1,500 buildings over the past month.

Study: Israeli Forces Likely Killed More Than 100,000 Palestinians in Gaza - --More than 100,000 Palestinians have likely been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza, according to a research team from the Germany-based Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR).A study conducted by the MPIDR and the Centre for Demographic Studies estimates that from October 7, 2023, to December 31, 2024, 78,318 people were killed by violence in Gaza, a significantly higher number than what Gaza’s Health Ministry was reporting at the time.“An update of their analysis, produced after the publication of the study, revealed that the current violent death toll likely exceeds 100,000,” the Max Planck Society said in an article on the study.The research aligns with two other studies on the Gaza death toll, which have found the real number of violent deaths is likely around 40% higherthan what the Gaza Health Ministry has reported. The latest update from the Health Ministry said its death toll has reached 69,775.The studies deal only with violent deaths, not indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege and destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure. “Our estimates of the impact of war on life expectancy in Gaza and Palestine are significant, but probably represent only a lower limit of the actual mortality burden. Our analysis focuses exclusively on direct, conflict-related deaths. The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations,” said Ana C. Gómez-Ugarte, a researcher for MPIDR who was involved in the study.The MPIDR study found that life expectancy in Gaza in 2024 dropped to nearly half the level it was before October 7, 2023. “As a result of this unprecedented mortality, life expectancy in Gaza fell by 44% in 2023 and by 47% in 2024 compared with what it would have been without the war—equivalent to losses of 34.4 and 36.4 years, respectively,” said Gómez-Ugarte.The researchers also found that the “age and gender distribution of violent deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2024, closely resembled the demographic patterns observed in several genocides documented by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME).”

Amnesty International Says Gaza Genocide Is Not Over - The group says Israel continues to deliberately inflict conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of Palestinians in Gaza.Amnesty International said on Thursday that the Israeli genocide against the Palestinian population of Gaza is not over despite the US-backed ceasefire deal, which Israel has continued to violate.While the agreement has led to a de-escalation of Israeli attacks and a slight increase in aid entering Gaza, Israeli forces have killed hundreds of Palestinians, and Israel continues to impose restrictions on humanitarian aid and is not allowing reconstruction.“More than one month after a ceasefire was announced in Gaza on 9 October, Israeli authorities are still committing genocide against Palestinians in the occupied Gaza Strip, by continuing to deliberately inflict conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction,” Amnesty said in a statement.“Israel severely restricts the entry of supplies and the restoration of services essential for the survival of the civilian population – including nutritious food, medical supplies, and electricity – as well as stringently limiting medical evacuations. Israeli authorities continue to prohibit the entry of equipment and material necessary to repair life-sustaining infrastructure and required to remove unexploded ordnance, contaminated rubble and sewage,” the group added.Amnesty also pointed to the continued displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza as they are not allowed to enter the Israeli-occupied side of the Strip, which accounts for 58% of the territory, and are shot and killed if they attempt to cross the “yellow line,” the ambiguous boundary that cuts Gaza in two.“Palestinians are prevented from returning to their homes or agricultural lands located in areas beyond the yellow line, and the Israeli military has shot at those who come near,” Amnesty said. “Some 93 Palestinians attempting to cross and return to their homes have been killed.”Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Thursday that since the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect, Israeli forces have killed at least 347 Palestinians and wounded 889, more than 1,000 total casualties.

Hamas Affirms Commitment to Gaza Ceasefire amid Israeli Violations of Deal - Palestine Chronicle Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem affirmed on Monday that its delegation’s presence in Cairo demonstrates the movement’s seriousness in cooperating with mediators to move to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. “The second phase of the agreement is complex, and we have done what was required of us, while Israel continues its violations and breaches,” Qassem said in a press statement. He warned that “Israel’s continued violations could undermine the ceasefire agreement, a point the movement made clear to the mediators in the Cairo talks.” Qassem pointed out that “the tasks of the international forces must include separating our unarmed people from the occupation army, which continues its relentless aggression.” He stressed that “the occupation continues its daily process of encroaching on the Gaza Strip.” A Hamas delegation met on Sunday with Hassan Rashad, head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, in Cairo to discuss developments related to the Gaza ceasefire agreement with Israel. The delegation was headed by Muhammad Darwish, Chairman of the Movement’s Leadership Council, and included Leadership Council members Khaled Mashal, Khalil Al-Hayya, Nizar Awadallah, and Zaher Jabarin, and Political Bureau member Dr. Ghazi Hamad. In a statement, Hamas said the meeting addressed developments concerning the ceasefire agreement, the general situation in the Gaza Strip, and a discussion of the nature of the second phase of the agreement. The delegation “affirmed the Movement’s commitment to implementing the first phase of the agreement, emphasizing the importance of halting the continuous zionist violations that threaten to undermine the agreement.” It said: “This must be done through a clear and specific mechanism under the sponsorship and follow-up of the mediators, based on informing the mediators of any violations so that they may take the necessary measures to stop them immediately and prevent unilateral actions that cause escalation and damage to the agreement.” The delegation also discussed ways to urgently address the issue of the al-Qassam Brigades fighters trapped behind the yellow line in Rafah with whom communication has been cut. The delegation urged mediators to intervene to resolve the situation. According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, Israeli forces have killed 342 Palestinians and injured hundreds since the ceasefire, the Anadolu news agency reported. Israel says it will not begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement until it receives the remaining bodies of Israeli captives. Hamas has repeatedly said retrieving those bodies requires time because of the massive destruction across Gaza. Since the first phase took effect on October 10, Hamas has handed over 20 Israeli captives alive and the remains of 27 others out of 28. Israel has disputed two of those transfers, claiming one set of remains did not belong to any of its captives and another was not new. Among the measures expected in the second phase is the deployment of an international stabilization force in Gaza – an idea included in a recent US-drafted resolution adopted by the UN Security Council. On Saturday, the Israeli army claimed it killed and detained 17 Hamas fighters, saying they were trying to escape through a tunnel east of Rafah, according to Anadolu. Rafah lies inside areas still occupied by Israeli troops as part of the “yellow line” arrangements under the ceasefire that took effect on October 10, the report added. Anadolu cited a report by Egypt’s Cairo News channel which said Israel was attempting to use the standoff to derail the ceasefire agreement. Israeli officials have publicly urged the fighters to surrender and be transferred to Israel for interrogation or face being killed if they refuse, the report stated. Starting on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military, with American support, launched a genocidal war against the people of Gaza. This campaign has so far resulted in the deaths of over 69,000 Palestinians, with more than 170,000 wounded. The vast majority of the population has been displaced, and the destruction of infrastructure is unprecedented since World War II. Thousands of people are still missing. In addition to the military assault, the Israeli blockade has caused a man-made famine, leading to the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians—mostly children—with hundreds of thousands more at risk. Despite widespread international condemnation, little has been done to hold Israel accountable. The nation is currently under investigation for genocide by the International Court of Justice, while accused war criminals, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are officially wanted by the International Criminal Court.

'Ethnic Cleansing’ - B’Tselem Says Over 1,000 Killed in West Bank since 2023 - The organization stated that since October 2023, alongside the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the Israeli military “has been enforcing an increasingly permissive and reckless open-fire policy in the West Bank”. Israeli occupation forces and illegal Jewish settlers have killed 1,004 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank since October 2023, including 217 minors, the Israeli rights group B’Tselem has said. At least 21 of the killings “were perpetrated by settlers,” it noted. “We are witnessing the total abandonment of Palestinian lives. Israel has already shown it is capable of far greater violence, as we are seeing in the Gaza Strip,” said Yuli Novak, B’Tselem executive director. “The situation in the West Bank is deteriorating by the day and will only worsen, because there is no internal or external mechanism to restrain Israel or stop its ongoing policy of ethnic cleansing,” Novak stressed. He emphasized that the “international community must put an end to Israel’s impunity and hold those responsible for crimes against the Palestinian people to account.” The organization stated that since October 2023, alongside the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the Israeli military “has been enforcing an increasingly permissive and reckless open-fire policy in the West Bank, including the use of airstrikes in populated areas.” It highlighted that the military “has also armed and mobilized thousands of settlers into regional defense battalions and rapid-response teams within settlements.” “Under this blanket impunity, armed settlers attack Palestinians on a daily basis, burning homes, farmland and crops, looting property and killing residents,” B’Tselem said. The rights group stated that although dozens of such attacks occur every day, and many are captured on video and well documented, Israeli law-enforcement authorities “rarely open investigations.” “In the 21 cases where settlers have killed Palestinians, not a single perpetrator has been convicted,” it stressed. On Sunday evening, a young Palestinian man was killed by gunfire from Israeli occupation forces and illegal settlers during an attack on the village of Deir Jarir, east of Ramallah, the official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. Bara’ Khairy Ali Maali, 20, was killed when the soldiers and settlers opened fire on residents who attempted to quell the attack. Maali was shot in the chest, succumbing to his critical wounds after being transferred to the hospital, the report stated. On Friday, three Palestinian youth were killed by the occupation forces. Younes Waleed Mohammad Shtayyeh, 24, was killed after the army surrounded a house in the village of Tel, west of Nablus. The occupation forces fired live ammunition and stun grenades around the house, wounding Shtayyeh, before arresting him, WAFA reported. It cited the Palestinian Red Crescent Society as saying that Israeli soldiers prevented its medical teams from reaching the wounded man, before he was later pronounced dead. The army is withholding his body, WAFA reported. Early on Friday, Israeli occupation forces also shot and killed two youths during a raid in the town of Kafr Aqab, north of Jerusalem. The Palestinian Ministry of Health confirmed the killings of Amr Khaled Al-Marboua, 18, and Sami Ibrahim Mashaikha, 16. WAFA reported that Israeli forces “had stormed the town, deployed infantry units in its streets, and positioned snipers on the rooftops of several buildings before opening fire at young men in the area, leading to the killing of Al-Marboua and Mashaikha.” The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has said that October 2025 recorded the highest monthly number of illegal Israeli settler attacks since the office began documenting such incidents in 2006, with more than 260 attacks resulting in casualties, property damage or both. This amounted to an average of eight incidents per day, it said.

China Slams Japanese Plan to Deploy Missiles on Island Near Taiwan - Japan will place surface-to-air missiles with a range of about 30 miles on Yonaguni Island, which is about 68 miles east of Taiwan. Japan has reaffirmed that it plans to deploy a surface-to-air missile system to one of its far-flung southwestern islands that’s near Taiwan, drawing a sharp rebuke from Beijing.Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters on Sunday that Tokyo would be deploying Type 03 Chu-SAM surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, which lies about 68 miles east of the island of Taiwan.“The deployment can help lower the chance of an armed attack on our country,” Koizumi said during a visit to a Japanese military base on the island, according to Bloomberg. “The view that it will heighten regional tensions is not accurate.”The Chu-SAM missiles have a range of about 30 miles, meaning they can’t reach Taiwan, but the confirmation of the deployment comes against the backdrop of growing tensions between Beijing and Tokyo and Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, saying that a Chinese military blockade of Taiwan could be grounds for a Japanese military response.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning cited Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan when shecondemned the Japanese missile deployment to Yonaguni at a press conference on Monday.“Japan’s deployment of offensive weapons in Southwest Islands close to China’s Taiwan region is a deliberate move that breeds regional tensions and stokes military confrontation,” Mao said. “Given Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, this move is extremely dangerous and should put Japan’s neighboring countries and the international community on high alert.”Japan has engaged in a US-encouraged military buildup in recent years that China says goes against Tokyo’s pacifist constitution that was imposed by US occupation forces after World War II, and the Potsdam Declaration, a statement that outlined the terms of surrender for Imperial Japan.

Why This Fear Of Deflation? --Certain myths survive from a period of trauma. They can be wholly incorrect and yet widely believed by nearly all living experts. The myth keeps moving from generation to generation and becomes doctrine, one which we dare not question for fear of contradicting the settled consensus. It so happens that “everyone knows” something that is entirely incorrect.The myth in this case is that deflation, in the form of falling prices, is always to be avoided at all costs. This myth is global.The other day, Bloomberg and Economic Times whipped up a frenzy with an article called “What India can do about its low inflation problem.” “India’s economy, so often touted for potential to supplant China as a global engine, is having a hard time getting its arms around inflation. Not that it’s too high, but because the pace of price increases is worryingly low.”The prescription is always the same: loosen the money and pump up the prices, robbing savers and consumers of all production.How can they say this? Because everyone believes it.India has had a roaring inflation problem in recent years, same as everyone else. I’m just going to eyeball this and say that the currency has lost 30 percent of its value over five years, again, not an unusual experience. Finally we have inflation tamed to the 2–3 percent realm. That means only that the problem is getting worse more slowly.This is not deflation. Not even close.And yet at this very moment, we are told that India has another problem. Inflation is too low! The central bank has to act before it is too late!Some of this confusion truly results from sloppy use of language. When inflation is falling, that vaguely feels like prices are falling. Not so! It only means that prices are rising more slowly than previously. This is not deflation. This is a lower rate of inflation.The language problem is coupled with a strange public psychology. For years, I’m convinced, consumers really believed that the inflation was temporary. Maybe you believed this too. I think I did briefly until I remembered that there is no way that the monetary authorities would actually let overall prices fall.Whatever damage has been done over five years is really done. Nothing can fix it. The price level will never go back to what it was. The monetary unit is permanently devalued. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.