natural gas price hits 7 month highs; record oil production from US wells; gasoline inventories at a three year low

US oil prices finished lower for the fifth time in six weeks on a strong ​US dollar, the largest US oil inventory build in over 3 months, and on slowing factory activity in the US and Asia....after slipping 0.8% to $60.98 a barrel last week after the US and China reached an agreement on trade​, and on the expectation that OPEC+ would decide to again increase production in December, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery rose in early Asian trading on Monday after the OPEC+ alliance decided to suspend planned production increases for the first quarter of next year, easing concerns about an oversupply on the market, but gave up some of those overseas gains and sold off to a low of $60.51 by mid-morning in New York amid weak factory activity reports from Asia, and settled 7 cents higher at $61.05 per barrel as the market balanced the ​December OPEC+ supply increase ​a​gainst the group's plans to pause ​further increases in the first quarter of 2026, along with fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia…oil prices fell on global markets on Tuesday as concerns over weak fuel demand in the US following disappointing manufacturing data amid the country’s longest-running government shutdown weighed heavily on market sentiment, then continued lower Tuesday morning in the US, as concerns about oversupply increased after OPEC’s decision to pause supply hikes, and as a stronger U.S. dollar eased buying from holders of other currencies, and settled 49 cents lower at $60.56 a barrel, as weaker manufacturing numbers and a stronger dollar weighed on demand, while the OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter was seen to signal the group's concern about a potential supply glut....oil prices then slipped modestly in early Asian trading on Wednesday, as slower industrial activity and weaker energy consumption weighed on outlooks, while a firm U.S. dollar made dollar-priced crude less attractive to holders of other currencies, and continued to weaken Wednesday morning in New York after the American Petroleum Institute (API) report showed an unexpected surge in U.S. oil inventories, keeping demand and over-supply concerns top of mind for traders, and settled down 96 cents or 1.6% lower at a two week low of $59.60 a barrel, pressured by concerns of a possible global oil glut, even as new data showing signs of strong U.S. demand for fuel limited losses…oil prices were largely steady at two week lows in early Thursday trading, pressured by concerns over weak demand and a global supply surplus, and remained little changed early in New York on a technical steadying rather than any change in market sentiment, which remained bearish, but ended the session 17 cents lower at $59.43​ a barrel, with the geopolitical premium from Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian refineries offset by the market’s concerns about an oversupply and the large build in crude stocks and weak demand…..oil futures traded higher on Friday morning in Asia, despite concerns about oversupply in the market, as reports noted that the US and European sanctions on Russia and Iran had impacted the crude oil supplies to the major buyers in the world, then pulled back in early US trading following reports that U.S. consumer sentiment had fallen to 3-year lows, weighing on a market already struggling with weak demand and oversupply, but recovered to settle 32 cents higher at $59.75 a barrel on hopes that Trump’s meeting with Hungary’s Orban would lead to a deal that would ease sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft, but still ended 2.0% lower for the week…

Meanwhile, natural gas prices rose for a third straight week, boosted by record LNG demand and colder than normal forecasts for the 3rd and 4th week out… after rising 3.2% to a six month high of $4.124 per mmBTU last week, on colder weather forecasts and near-record flows to LNG export plants, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for December delivery opened 3.9 cents higher on Monday and, after an early stumble, rallied to a fresh seven-month intraday high of $4.290 by 12:30 PM, as traders were emboldened by near-record LNG demand and long-term forecasts for below average temperatures to start December, then traded largely sideways to close out the day 14.2 cents higher  gasoline inventories  ​  of $4.266 per mmBTU on record flows to LNG export plants and on forecasts for greater demand next week than had been expected….December natural gas opened 3.2 cents lower on Tuesday, and fell to its intraday low of $4.205 at 10:15 AM, only to reverse and then rally through midday to an intraday high of $4.396 at 1:30PM, on high LNG demand and forecasts for cooler temperatures, then pulled back and settled 7.7 cents higher at a new seven month high of $4.343 per mmBTU, as traders priced in the season’s first arctic push and looked beyond late November warmth to forecasts hinting at a colder start to December…natural gas prices opened 6.4 cents lower on Wednesday, but rose back to $4.346 by 10:40 AM, before reversing again and resuming their descent, as the contract had wandered into over-bought territory, and cascaded to settle 11.1 cents lower at $4.235 per mmBTU, on record output from wells so far this month, ample amounts of fuel in storage, and forecasts for mostly mild weather that would keep heating demand lower than normal through late November…natural gas prices opened 5.1 cents higher on Thursday and reached $4.310 ahead of the weekly storage report, then dipped to $4.264, but quickly recovered on the unsurprising report and rallied through mid-day to settle 12.5 cents higher at another seven month high of $4.357 per mmBTU, as LNG export demand neared record levels and storage injections slowed…the rally in December natural gas faded early Friday, as prices met stiff technical resistance, then rebounded from a $4.268 afternoon low​, as traders adjusted positions ahead of shifting weekend weather, only to lose momentum before the close to settle 4.2 cents lower at $4.315 per mmBTU, as warmer weather curbed demand and output hit new highs with ample fuel in storage, but still finished with a 4.6% increase for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 31st indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 33 cubic feet to 3,915 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 6 billion cubic feet, or 0.2% lower than the 3,921 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 31st of last year, but 162 billion cubic feet, or 4.3% more than the five-year average of 3,753 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 31st of October over the most recent five years….the 33 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was in line with the 32 billion cubic foot injection into storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, but was quite a bit less than the 68 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, and also less than the average 42 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the last week of October over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 31st indicated that after an increase in our oil imports and an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the 21st time in thirty-nine weeks, and for the 38th time in sixty-nine weeks, with the surplus also boosted by record production from US wells….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 873,000 barrels per day to 5,924,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 867,000 barrels per day to a fifty-six month low over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 6,000 barrels per day to average 4,367,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 1,557,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 31st, an average of 867,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils were 6,000 barrels per day higher at 469,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 7,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at a record 13,651,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,677,000 barrels per day during the October 31st reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,256,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 31st, an average of 37,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 814,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 31st averaged a rounded 393,000 fewer barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+393,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.…moreover, since 481,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 874,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much. and hence completely useless.... However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 814,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 743,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 71,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 5,724,000 barrels per day last week, which was 5.3% less than the 6,043,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 7,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,644,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 13,215,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 436,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.2% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 86.0% of their capacity while processing those 15,256,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 31st, down from the 86.6% utilization rate of a week earlier, with the current low level of utilization largely due to routine Fall refinery maintenance, despite the recent fires at refineries in El Segundo California and Whiting Indiana…. the 15,256,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 6.6% less than the 16,334,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending November 1st of 2024, and were 3.2% less than the 15,761,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 1st, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was also at 86.0%, which was a little below the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year, as refineries were then recovering from catastrophic flooding in Southeast Texas in the wake of tropical storm Imelda of that year…

With the increase in the numbers of barrels of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 241,000 barrels per day to 9,831,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 31st, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 4,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 1.3% more than the 9,708,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending November 1st of last year, but 2.0% less than the gasoline production of 10,036,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending November 1st, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 4,709,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 134,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after this week’s ​hefty production increase, our distillates output was 7.6% less than the 5,096,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 1st of 2024, and 3.4% less than the 4,875,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 1st, 2019....

Even with this week’s sizable increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 14th time in sixteen weeks, decreasing by 4,729,000 barrels to a three year low of 206,009,000 barrels during the week ending October 31st, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 5,941,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 50,000 barrels per day to 8,874,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 122,000 barrels per day to 588,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 239,000 barrels per day to 1,088,000 barrels per day.… After twenty-nine gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-nine weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.5% less than last November 1st’s gasoline inventories of 211,280,000 barrels, and about 5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with this week’s sizable increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 25th time in 44 weeks, decreasing by 643,000 barrels to 111,546,000 barrels during the week ending October 31st, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,342,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased by less this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 130,000 barrels to 3,710,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 312,000 barrels per day to 1,195,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 5,000 barrels per day to 104,000 barrels per day... With 54 withdrawals from inventories over the past 92 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.7% less than the 115,809,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 1st of 2024, and about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the increase in our oil imports and the increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, increasing by 5,202,000 barrels over the week, from 415,966,000 barrels on October 24th to 421,168,000 barrels on October 31st, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 6,858,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were 4% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 23% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the end of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this October 31st were 1.5% less than the 427,658,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 1st of 2024, and were 3.3% below the 435,762,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 3rd of 2023, and 3.6% less than the 436,830,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 28th of 2022…

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count was up by two over the week ending November 7th, the eighth increase in twelve weeks, as the number of rigs targeting natural gas rose by three, the count of rigs targeting oil was unchanged, and miscellaneous rigs were down by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 7th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 31st) and this week’s (November 7th) count, the third column shows last week’s October 31st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 8th of November, 2024…

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OH Judge Tosses Big Green Case Attacking State Park Fracking Law - Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2023, Ohio House Bill (HB) 507 became law with the signature of Gov. Mike DeWine (see OH Gov. Signs Bill Expanding Drilling in State Parks, NatGas “Green”). The law allows shale drilling under (but not on top of) Ohio state-owned land, including state parks. Predictably, the enviro-left attacked the bill (see Cleveland Plain Dealer Attacks OH Law re Drilling Under State Land). Four left-wing “environmental” groups—Ohio Environmental Council, Ohio Valley Allies, Buckeye Environmental Network, and Sierra Club—filed a lawsuit in April 2023, hoping to overturn the new law (see Radicals Sue to Block Ohio Law re Drilling Under State Land). After more than two years, a judge ruled on the case, dismissing it.

Ohio Unveils $100M Energy Funds To Boost Nuclear And Gas Projects - Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has unveiled the JobsOhio Energy Opportunity Initiative, a $100 million fund aimed at strengthening the state’s nuclear and natural gas sectors. The program will support supply chain companies involved in small modular reactor (SMR) manufacturing and establish a “nuclear energy center of excellence.” The announcement comes amid growing nuclear momentum in the state. In September, Centrus Energy revealed plans to significantly expand its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, signaling renewed investment in Ohio’s nuclear infrastructure.DeWine made the announcement in partnership with JobsOhio, a private nonprofit economic development corporation that promotes growth across Ohio industries, during the Ohio Business Roundtable CEO Summit last week.The fund will provide grants and low-interest loans to offset costs related to nuclear and natural gas power production. DeWine emphasized that the initiative will help ensure the state has adequate energy supply to meet current and future demand while keeping costs reasonable. The initiative will focus on four primary areas:

1. Engineering, right-of-way, and construction for new and existing natural gas infrastructure.
2. Site preparation for SMR generation.
3. Advanced workforce training and the creation of a nuclear energy center of excellence.
4. Incentives to attract supply-chain companies for SMR manufacturing and production.

Amir Vexler, president and CEO of Centrus Energy, highlighted that the focus on workforce development is crucial to supporting the company’s expansion plans.DeWine noted that the initiative complements his broader efforts to accelerate natural gas and nuclear deployment in Ohio. He referenced the signing of H.B. 15 in May, legislation aimed at expediting new energy projects, and his collaboration with PJM Interconnection to create a prioritized review queue for natural gas and nuclear projects ahead of renewable energy applications.Highlighting Ohio’s rich nuclear history, DeWine cited existing infrastructure, including two nuclear power plants, two BWX Technology plants, a beryllium product facility, and Ohio State University’s research reactor, demonstrating the state’s deep expertise and robust supply chain in the sector.

Ascent 3Q Drilled 12 Wells, Produced 2.25 Bcfe/d, Made $328M Profit - Marcellus Drilling News -- Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by Aubrey McClendon, a gas industry legend, is a privately held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its third quarter 2025 update yesterday. Net production for the quarter averaged 2,247 MMcfe/d (2.25 Bcfe/d), consisting of 1,900 MMcf/d of natural gas, 16,130 bbls/d of oil, and 41,652 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 15% of the overall production mix for the quarter.

Gulfport Energy 3Q: Full Steam Ahead Drilling in the Ohio Marcellus - Marcellus Drilling News -- Gulfport Energy is the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled). Gulfport released its third quarter update yesterday. The company is going full steam ahead in its natgas drilling in the Ohio Marcellus. Gulfport is aggressively expanding its future drilling potential. The company nearly tripled its Marcellus inventory, adding roughly 125 gross locations. Concurrently, Gulfport successfully finished two Utica U-development test wells, a move that proves drilling feasibility and unlocks an additional 20 gross Utica dry gas locations.

Antero Returns to Dry Gas Drilling; Confirms Ohio Utica for Sale - Marcellus Drilling News --- Antero Resources, the largest Marcellus/Utica (M-U) driller in West Virginia, released its Q3 2025 update with two significant announcements. One is that newly appointed CEO Michael Kennedy is “excited” for the company to return to dry gas drilling after “more than a decade,” with the first new dry gas well specifically intended to service the data center market. Second, we can confirm our prior speculation to say that Antero is officially marketing its Ohio Utica assets for sale. We previously brought you that rumor in early September (see Rumor: Antero Preparing to Sell Ohio Utica Upstream, Midstream).

CNX Focused on Deep Utica Gas Development | RBN Energy -In its earnings call last week, CNX Resources highlighted its share buyback plan and continued positive free cash flow. They also discussed continuing plans to develop deep Utica acreage, particularly assets acquired in its purchase of Apex Energy II earlier this year (seen in the map below). The deep Utica is the portion of the Utica shale located in Western Pennsylvania that overlaps with Marcellus shale. It has historically been less developed than the Marcellus in Southwest Pennsylvania and the Utica in Ohio because its greater depth makes drilling more expensive, but that is changing now as producers like CNX take advantage of the deep Utica’s position near Marcellus takeaway infrastructure.CNX emphasized the cost reductions they have achieved as they gain more experience drilling in the deep Utica over the past year. Drilling costs have dropped from $2,200 per foot last year to $1,750 per foot this year – a reduction of almost 20%. However, the company reported that they had no new wells during the third quarter, as drilling activity “was focused on a four-well deep Utica pad.” This led to production volumes declining in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter of this year, the company expects to bring seven wells online, including three in the deep Utica. For the following year the company wants to retain flexibility “to respond to whatever sort of pricing environment develops.” In the long run, the company emphasized the need for more takeaway infrastructure to handle the low decline rates of deep Utica production but did not refer to specific plans.

EOG Resources Inc Production Increases - EOG Resources beat analysts’ estimates for third-quarter profit, as higher output helped the U.S. oil and gas producer offset a drop in crude prices. Benchmark Brent crude fell more than 13% in the quarter from a year earlier, but the company got a production boost as it expanded in the Utica and Marcellus regions following its $5.6 billion deal for Encino Acquisition Partners. During the third quarter, EOG produced 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 1.08 million boepd a year earlier. EOG’s crude oil production reached 534,500 barrels per day, exceeding the company’s guidance midpoint of 532,400 barrels per day. Average realized price for natural gas output rose more than 36% to $2.80 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) while realized price for oil production fell 14.2% to $65.95 per barrel. The company’s assets in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, and Utica shale regions were performing above expectations, with international assets also boosting its growth.Further, the company generated $1.4 billion in free cash flow during the quarter, returning nearly $1 billion to shareholders through $545 million in regular dividends and $440 million in share repurchases. EOG also completed its acquisition of Encino Acquisition Partners during the quarter. Per-unit lease and well costs decreased to $3.60 per barrel of oil equivalent, below the guidance midpoint of $3.70, primarily due to higher production from the integration of Encino operations and lower workover expenses. EOG in the third quarter of FY25 has reported the adjusted earnings per share of $2.71, beating the analysts’ estimates for the adjusted earnings per share of $2.43, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company had reported the adjusted revenue growth of 35.9 percent to $5.85 billion in the third quarter of FY25, missing the analysts’ estimates for revenue of $5.95 billion.Additionally, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, representing an annual rate of $4.08 per share. EOG noted it has never suspended or reduced its regular dividend. The company said it expects production to be in the range of 1.35 million boepd to 1.39 million boepd for the fourth quarter and between 1.21 million boepd and 1.23 million boepd for the full year. For the fourth quarter, EOG expects crude oil production to range between 542,500 and 547,500 barrels per day. The company maintained its full-year capital expenditure guidance of $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion.

Gas leak leads to 'catastrophic' explosion at Kelton House Museum in downtown Columbus - 10TV COLUMBUS, Ohio —More than 100 firefighters responded to the historic Kelton House Museum & Garden in downtown Columbus Monday afternoon after a gas leak led to an explosion, according to Assistant Fire Chief Mike Secrist.Columbus Division of Fire crews responded to the Kelton House Museum around 2:30 p.m. Secrist said shortly after firefighters entered the main building, there was a detection of natural gas. Soon after, an explosion occurred, he said.According to a Columbus public safety dispatcher, the fire department's run indicated the leak came from a supply line with a strong smell of natural gas. Columbia Gas and AEP crews also responded to the scene. WATCH: Drone video shows fire, heavy damage at Kelton House Museum. A neighbor who lives next door said she heard a loud boom and felt her building shake during the explosion. Billowing smoke and flames were seen coming from the building's roof shortly after.Secrist described the explosion as "catastrophic," saying that several structures behind the main Kelton House were "completely leveled." He said the main building was also showing signs of possible collapse.Secrist confirmed all firefighters are OK and there are no injuries.Columbia Gas determined there were no other gas leaks in the area, according to Secrist. Crews were at the scene digging up the gas line to stop the leak at the Kelton House.Seacrest said crews evacuated some of the buildings in the immediate area, while additional residents evacuated voluntarily due to the smell of natural gas.Firefighters were able to enter the Kelton House several hours afterward to retrieve a number of historical artifacts that were on display. Mayor Andrew Ginther released the following statement after the incident: "I’m relieved that no one was injured at the Kelton House today, and grateful to the men and women of Columbus Fire for containing the incident while preserving as much history as possible. The Kelton House is an important part of our city’s history as a stop on the Underground Railroad and remains an educational resource to our community." More than 100 firefighters responded ... Crews were at the scene digging up the gas line to stop the leak at the Kelton House.

Gas leak evacuates homes in Lewis Center (WCMH) — A gas leak has prompted the evacuation of homes inside a Lewis Center neighborhood on Wednesday night. According to Columbus fire officials at the scene, several homes on Sweetshade Drive in the Olentangy Meadows development were evacuated after pressure inside the gas lines got too high, causing gas meters outside the homes to leak. Between 40 and 50 homes were evacuated, but since the leaks were outside of the homes and the wind was blowing, officials are not overly concerned about damage to property or people getting injured, officials said. The gas company is working to alleviate the pressure in the gas lines and is urging anyone who smells gas inside their homes to evacuate.

Bedford polling place evacuated after construction workers hit gas line - Cleveland 19 News (WOIO) - Voters at Bedford High School were evacuated for a short time Tuesday, after nearby construction workers hit a gas line. The accident happened at 9:24 a.m. on Berwyn Drive. As a pre-caution, the building was evacuated. Bedford police said Dominion crews are on the way to fix the gas line.

Truck crashes into gas line, causing large fire on Montgomery Road – WSYX Truck crashes into gas line, causing large fire on Montgomery Road (WKRC) - A large fire that raged for hours in Montgomery Wednesday is now out. The fire shut down traffic on Montgomery Road right next to Ronald Reagan. It broke out after a construction truck crashed into a gas line. Witnesses say when it happened, it sounded like an explosion. "When I got here, it was just engulfed, flames everywhere. Some of the equipment was on fire. It was bad. It was bad," said witness Jim Rankle. Crews were able to shut off the gas valve after about four hours. Three construction workers were treated at the hospital, but they will be OK. The crash happened near Moeller Hgh School, and some students helped crews fight the flames. A few of the boys held a hose line from an engine to the scene of the fire.

Strs Ohio Purchases 44,346 Shares of Kinder Morgan, Inc. -- Strs Ohio (State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio) boosted its position in shares of Kinder Morgan, Inc. by 5.1% in the second quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 915,633 shares of the pipeline company's stock after buying an additional 44,346 shares during the quarter. Strs Ohio's holdings in Kinder Morgan were worth $26,920,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, October 22nd. The pipeline company reported $0.29 EPS for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of $0.29. Kinder Morgan had a net margin of 16.61% and a return on equity of 8.57%. The company had revenue of $4.15 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.98 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted $0.25 EPS. Kinder Morgan's revenue for the quarter was up 12.1% on a year-over-year basis.Kinder Morgan, Inc operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in North America. The company operates through Natural Gas Pipelines, Products Pipelines, Terminals, and CO2 segments. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline, and storage systems; natural gas gathering systems and natural gas processing and treating facilities; natural gas liquids fractionation facilities and transportation systems; and liquefied natural gas gasification, liquefaction, and storage facilities.

Bluegrass Power Plans $3B Gas-Fired Plant in Fayette County, OH -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Bluegrass Power Generation has proposed an 800-megawatt, $2.5 to $3 billion natural gas-fired electric generation facility in Fayette County, Ohio, pending approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board. The plant is designed to operate “behind-the-meter,” exclusively supplying power to dedicated nearby third-party facilities, like the L-H Battery Company (Honda/LG Energy Solution), for at least 30 years, disconnected from the main power grid. The project is expected to create 500 construction jobs and 30 permanent operational positions, generating significant tax revenue and strengthening Ohio’s high-tech infrastructure to support future industrial growth. Construction is currently slated to begin in February 2026

Pa. AG Charges Fracking Co. With Multiple Enviro Crimes – Law360 – · -- The gas development and gathering arm of New York utility National Fuel Gas Co. has been hit with criminal charges, accused of violating Pennsylvania environmental laws, state Attorney General Dave Sunday announced Friday. Houston-based Seneca Resources LLC was indicted by two separate grand juries for a total of 64 alleged violations of the Solid Waste Management ... Attorney General Dave Sunday announced charges against Seneca Resources, LLC, following multiple violations of Pennsylvania's environmental protection laws in several counties, as recommended by the 48th and 51st Statewide Investigating Grand Juries. Marcellus and Utica shale formations. "Every Pennsylvanian has a constitutional right to pure water, and these cases resulted in violations of those rights ...Attached Documents:

• Cellar Water Complaint
• Disposal Complaint
• Spill Complaint

Pennsylvania files criminal charges against gas driller – WHYY --The Pennsylvania Attorney General has filed criminal charges against natural gas producer Seneca Resourcesfor three separate incidents during its drilling and fracking operations in North Central Pennsylvania. The state alleges the company’s actions led to drinking water contamination as well as ground and surface water pollution in eight counties.Citing Pennsylvania’s Environmental Rights Amendment,Attorney General Dave Sunday, a Republican, said the charges stem from the company’s lack of action after warnings from the Department of Environmental Protection. Every Pennsylvanian has a constitutional right to pure water, and these cases resulted in violations of those rights,” Sunday said in a statement. “In one example, a couple’s home — which they worked their entire lives to afford — was subjected to contaminated water. Such outcomes will not be tolerated, and I commend our Environmental Crimes Section for their work in this case.”Two separate grand juries recommended the charges, which include 72 counts of violations of the Solid Waste Management Act and 42 counts of violations of the Clean Streams Law.One case alleges that Seneca Resources unlawfully injected fracking wastewater into a set of wells in Cameron County.Another case alleges the company ignored or disputed the DEP’s warnings that its operations would result in water contamination in Lycoming, Tioga, Potter, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Jefferson and Cameron counties.In 2020, Josh Shapiro, then Pa.'s AG, released a landmark report with recommendations on regulating fracking. Advocates say he has done little to advance them.The third case alleges that pollution in a separate Cameron County incident resulted after the company tried to clean up a spill without prior approval from the DEP, which resulted in surface and groundwater pollution.Seneca Resources responded in an email to WHYY News that it is reviewing the charges and working with the Office of Attorney General to “reach a reasonable resolution.”“We expect the Commonwealth to hold operators to a high standard, and we strive to exceed that standard every day,” wrote Rob Boulware, director of stakeholder relations for Seneca Resources. “We have engaged transparently with the OAG throughout their investigation and we are disappointed that they decided this step was necessary.”Boulware added that the company is “constantly recognized as an industry leader, with best of class corporate citizenship, environmental stewardship and our willingness to work with communities and regulators. These are commitments that we make with all the communities where we operate, and we take these responsibilities seriously.”

Natural gas driller charged with violating Pa.’s environmental laws in 8 counties - pennlive.com— A major natural gas driller in Pennsylvania is accused by the state attorney general’s office of multiple violations of environmental laws in its handling of wastewater from the fracking process. Seneca Resources was charged Thursday in Emporium with violations in Lycoming, Tioga, Potter, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Jefferson and Cameron counties. The charges are based on the recommendation of two statewide investigating grand juries. In one set, Seneca, whose Pennsylvania office is in Brookville, is accused of illegally discharging fluids from well cellars in all eight counties from Dec. 9, 2020, to March 1, 2022. The grand jury presentments contain the following information: A well cellar is a lined area dug out during drilling that allows easy access to valves once the well is in production. The cellars have the unintended consequence of holding wastes and rainwater. Requirements that would allow the fluids from them to be discharged onto the ground include a certain pH level and no sheen from oil and grease. Employees from companies contracted by Seneca testified they discharged the fluids on the ground if, after screening, the pH came back within an acceptable range and there was no sheen. Fluids that did not meet the parameters were trucked off-site. Seneca is accused of not having the required permit for the land discharge and continued doing so after being advised, it was illegal. The grand jury reviewed records of more than 1,000 instances of fluids being discharged onto the ground. Seneca responded that it treated fluids from well cellars like precipitation from other secondary confinement and would continue the ground disposal until the Department of Environmental Protection could cite a rule that specifically prohibited it. A second set of charges relates to a July 2022 ruptured above-ground pipe in Cameron County that carried wastewater from the fracking process. They detail the devastating impact the wastewater had on the well of an Emporium area home and neighboring properties. A remediation attempt, of which the Department of Environmental Protection was unaware, that involved flushing fresh water over the contaminated soil, worsened the situation because a significant amount of the water was not collected. The third set of charges deals with the injection of fracking wastewater under pressure at the very end of the horizontal portion of the well bore. Seneca is accused of pumping larger-than-normal volumes of wastewater without any sand or propellant into “sacrificial wells” as a means to dispose of it. The grand jury report cites 10,000 barrels of wastewater being put into three wells on a pad in 2017, compared with the normal 100 to 500 barrels. Documentation reviewed by the grand juries showed Seneca produces 4 percent of Pennsylvania’s natural gas and 11 percent of the wastewater in drilling horizontal wells from a single well pad. Seneca is charged with 64 counts of violating the Solid Waste Management Act and 36 Clean Streams Law violations. Attorney General Dave Sunday alleged that Seneca continued its illegal practices after being told to stop because it did not comply with the law. “Every Pennsylvanian has a constitutional right to pure water, and these cases resulted in violations of those rights,” he said.

DEP Solicits Bids On 2 Contracts To Plug 25 Abandoned Conventional Wells In Erie County At Taxpayer Expense; 1 Conventional Well In Clearfield County Expected To Cost $200,000+ To Plug --On October 31, the Department of Environmental Protection posted two abandoned well plugging contracts on BidExpress.com soliciting bids to plug 25 abandoned conventional wells in Erie County and one abandoned conventional gas well in Clearfield County.The Erie County contract is for plugging 25 abandoned conventional wells in Millcreek, Fairview, Girard and Harborcreek Townships that is expected to cost taxpayers between $1 million and $5 million.Mandatory pre-bid conference Nov. 5 & 6. Click Here for bid document.The Clearfield County contract is for plugging one (1) conventional gas well in Huston Township that is expected to cost taxpayers between $200,000 and $299,000.Mandatory pre-bid conference on November 12. Click Here for bid document.The Clearfield County well is located in Moshannon State Forest and was drilled in December 1959 to a depth of about 7,000 feet, more than twice the depth of most conventional wells.DEP inspected the well on August 14, 2025 and it was found to be leaking gas. DEP inspection report. DEP has one other open conventional well plugging bid solicitation--

• -- 44 abandoned wells in Highland Twp., Elk County, due November 6

Closed conventional well plugging bid solicitations in 2025 include--

• -- 15 abandoned wells in Lancaster, Forward & Connoguenessing Townships, Butler County
• -- 7 abandoned wells in Smith, North Strabane, North Franklin, and Canton Townships, Washington County
• -- 15 abandoned wells in East Keating Township, Clinton County
• -- 19 abandoned wells in Heath, Eldred, and Barnett Townships, Jefferson County and Millcreek Township, Clarion County
• -- 18 abandoned wells in Mead Township, Warren County
• -- 12 abandoned wells in Hamlin Township, McKean County

Taxpayers funding for these plugging projects comes primarily from the federal well plugging program.Visit DEP’s Conventional Well Plugging Program webpage for more information.

House Environmental Committee Puts Spotlight On Proposed Penn America LNG Gas Export Facility In Chester, Delaware County - On November 5, the House Environmental and Natural Resource Protection Committee held a hearing on a proposal by Penn America to locate a 1 billion cubic feet a day LNG natural gas export facility in the City of Chester, Delaware County. The hearing was hosted by Rep. Carol Kazeeme (D-Delaware) Rep. Greg Vilali (D-Delaware), Majority Chair of the Committee, opened the hearing by saying he feared “this proposal will proceed under the radar without sufficient public scrutiny, without considering first and foremost, the health and safety issues of the people along these river communities.” “There have been a number of indications this year that this issue has been proceeding. “There was an April 28th opinion piece by [PA US] Senator McCormick discussing Penn America and the Building Trades $7 billion project in this area. “There was a June 3rd meeting at the White House by Franc James with White House officials discussing this proposal. “There was an October 7th podcast involving Rob Bair sponsored by the Kleinman Institute discussing this proposed liquid natural gas terminal in Eddystone.” He said his second issue is the climate impacts an LNG gas facility would have. “I believe this is a real issue. I believe it's an issue we need to be concerned about.” Rep. Vitali said efforts were made to invite Penn America, a representative of the PA Building and Construction Trades Council and a witness selected by the Minority Chair of the Committee, but all were declined or unsuccessful. Tracy Carluccio, Deputy Director, Delaware RiverKeeper Network, provided a basic description of the proposed Penn America LNG proposal based on public sources and outlined basic health and environmental impacts. “The public information available is imprecise and incomplete, however, which we consider unfair and intentional. “What the company has said is they will ship the LNG overseas, they will primarily source the gas from Pennsylvania’s Marcellus and Utica shales, they plan to process up to 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day, plan to export 7.2 million metric tonnes of LNG each year and plan to operate for 20 years. “This would be the first and only LNG export facility in the Delaware River Watershed and the first in all four watershed states. “It would be located in the mostly densely populated region of Pennsylvania. “Militating against the plan to construct here, the federal government has advised that LNG facilities should be placed in “remote” locations, away from dense populations, to protect public safety. “From what we do know, it is clear this project is not clean, not carbon neutral, is unsafe, and the company has not interfaced with the people who would be most impacted, as we will hear about from Zulene Mayfield. “The project will have enormous negative and long-lived environmental impacts locally, regionally, statewide, and even globally.” Mayor Stefan Roots, City Of Chester, had a simple message for the Committee-- “LNG is simply not welcome here. “An LNG terminal or export terminal would be an extreme health and safety hazard, as you've already heard, for the City of Chester or for any other town along the stretch of the Delaware River. “I'm introducing a new initiative. I just thought of this as I was sitting there so that the Committee can have an easy three-letter acronym to remember our position. “It's WMO, We've Moved On. “Let's first talk safety. From a safety standpoint, it would be negligent and irresponsible to locate an LNG terminal in this region. “Explosions can and do occur with these facilities. The blast zone, the blast zone, that sounds terrible would displace many residents and put thousands more at serious risk. “Chester is a city of homes and families, churches, businesses, children and senior citizens. “As we seek to revitalize Chester, my vision is to build new housing and attract new residents to the city.” “I'm not pushing them out to accommodate a blast zone.”

PA Democrats Hold a We Hate Penn America LNG Export Meeting -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the Pennsylvania House Environmental and Natural Resource Protection Committee (the House has a one-Democrat majority) held a hearing on a proposal by Penn America to locate a 1 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet a day) LNG natural gas export facility in the City of Chester, Delaware County. The hearing was hosted by Rep. Carol Kazeeme (D-Delaware) and was exclusively attended by Democrats who were there to bash the project. There was no “How can we make this better?” There was only, “No way, no how, go to hell.” That’s the new Democrat Party and its political “leaders.”

Has NJ Export Dock on Delaware River Changed from LNG to LPG? -- Marcellus Drilling News --- The mystery may have been solved by MDN… In September 2022, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) voted to extend a permit to build a special LNG export dock along the shoreline of the Delaware River in New Jersey by an extra three years (see DRBC Gives LNG Export Dock in Dela. River Extra 3 Yrs to Build). That action sent the environmental left, including THE Delaware Riverkeeper, into apoplectic fits. Three years later (in September of this year), at the end of the original time extension, the five members of the DRBC voted unanimously to extend the deadline *another* five years, prompting the Riverkeeper gang to sue to block the time extension (see THE Delaware Riverkeeper Sues DRBC re NJ LNG Export Dock). However, it may not be LNG that the builders now have in mind with this time-extended dock

37 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 27 – Nov 2 -- Marcellus Drilling News --- We continue to be delighted with the number of new permits issued to drill shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica. Three weeks ago, that number soared to 37. Two weeks ago, it increased to 39. And last week the number remained high, down just two, back to 37 once again. Wow! We haven’t seen a sustained trend of high permit numbers like this in many moons. Pennsylvania issued 13 new permits last week, down from 23 the prior week. Ohio issued 8 new permits, down from 11 the prior week. It was West Virginia that was the breakout star, issuing 16 new permits, up from issuing 5 the preceding week. ANTERO RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BKV/BANPU | CARROLL COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | EXCO RESOURCES | HARRISON COUNTY | MARION COUNTY | MARION NATURAL ENERGY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RITCHIE COUNTY | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TYLER COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA)

Decline Rates for Shale Wells Mean We’re on a Drilling Treadmill - Marcellus Drilling News --- The U.S. oil and natural gas sector operates on a drilling treadmill. As production from existing wells rapidly declines—a trend exacerbated by the faster decline rates of prolific horizontal (shale) wells—operators are forced to drill new wells to maintain current output. Since 2010, however, new hydrocarbon production in the Lower 48 states has been robust enough to not only offset these significant losses but also increase overall production levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published a post yesterday explaining the shale drilling “treadmill” we find ourselves on.

FirstEnergy Event Touts Planned 1,200 MW Gas-Fired Plant in WV - Marcellus Drilling News -- Mon Power and Potomac Edison are local utilities and subsidiaries of FirstEnergy Corp. The two companies recently submitted an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to the West Virginia Public Service Commission, outlining how they will continue to deliver reliable, cost-effective power to West Virginia homes and businesses over the next decade (see FirstEnergy Explores Adding 1,200 MW Gas-Fired Plant in WV). The big news coming from the IRP is that the companies are exploring the possibility of building a new 1,200-megawatt natural gas combined-cycle power plant, which is expected to be operational around 2031. Those plans got more real at an event hosted yesterday by FirstEnergy.

Williams Companies, Inc SEC 10-Q Report — Williams Companies, Inc., a leading player in the energy infrastructure sector, has released its latest Form 10-Q report, showcasing robust financial and operational performance for the recent quarter. The report highlights significant growth in revenues and operating income, alongside strategic business expansions and a positive outlook for future growth.Williams Companies, Inc. reported strong financial results for the quarter, reflecting improved operational efficiency and strategic cost management:

• Total Revenues: $2,923 million, an increase from $2,653 million in the prior year period, driven by higher service revenues and product sales.
• Operating Income (Loss): $1,109 million, up from $838 million in the previous year, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost management.
• Net Income (Loss) Available to Common Stockholders: $646 million, down from $705 million, reflecting the impact of preferred stock dividends.
• Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share: $0.53, compared to $0.58 in the prior year, consistent with the basic earnings per share.

The company's operational performance was marked by significant contributions from various segments and strategic acquisitions:

• Revenue Segments: Williams Companies, Inc. reported revenue from several segments, including Transmission, Power & Gulf, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services. The Transmission, Power & Gulf segment generated significant revenue from regulated interstate natural gas transportation and storage services. The Northeast G&P and West segments contributed through gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, and storage services, with both monetary and commodity considerations.
• Geographical Performance: The company's operations are primarily located in the United States, with significant activities in the Marcellus Shale region, the Gulf Coast, and the Rocky Mountain region. The Transmission, Power & Gulf segment includes interstate natural gas pipelines extending from Texas to the New York City metropolitan area, serving major metropolitan areas along the Atlantic seaboard.
• Sales Units: The company reported significant volumes in natural gas transportation and storage services, with Transco and NWP playing key roles in these operations. The natural gas transportation service revenues for Transco were $2,134 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
• New Production Launches: The report highlighted the acquisition of additional interests in the Wamsutter basin and the Gulf Coast Storage Acquisition, which expanded the company's natural gas storage footprint in the Gulf Coast region.
• Future Outlook: Williams anticipates continued growth in its Transmission, Power & Gulf segment, driven by ongoing demand for natural gas transportation and storage services. The company is also focused on expanding its midstream services in the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions through its Northeast G&P segment.

The infrastructure imperative: Who benefits from pipeline expansion? – McKinsey --New McKinsey analysis explores how pipeline development could impact the US gas market, with two scenarios showing how infrastructure expansion could affect consumers, operators, and midstream companies.. (17 pages) Over the past decade, North America’s shale revolution unlocked vast reserves of low-cost natural gas. While these supply sources are spread out across the continent, roughly 75 percent of natural gas production growth in 2014–24 came from three basins: Appalachia (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia), Haynesville (North Louisiana), and Permian (West Texas). This growth was enabled by midstream players constructing pipelines to link these supply basins with demand centers, effectively stabilizing Henry Hub prices between $2.50 and $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBTU)1 (see sidebar “Sources of North America’s historical natural gas supply growth”). However, this era of rapid midstream infrastructure growth has come to an end, especially in the US Northeast, at a time when natural gas demand is projected to rise significantly. Our analysis suggests that US demand (including domestic consumption and net exports) could potentially reach 125 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2030, an increase of 14 percent compared to 109 bcfd in 2024, driven by increased power demand due to electrification, the rise of data centers, and a growing global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry. These same factors are expected to further increase demand throughout the 2030s. With the gas distribution network already constrained, the US gas market could face supply bottlenecks, price volatility, and a growing dependence on higher-cost supply basins.2 US operators would need to expand the current natural gas infrastructure network to overcome these challenges. In many regions of the United States, project execution is a considerable challenge. In particular, the Appalachian Basin contains an abundant, low-cost dry gas supply but faces severe pipeline bottlenecks that limit the flow of gas to high-demand markets. Expanding infrastructure in the basin could materially help maintain affordable prices and meet future demand, but would have a range of implications for different stakeholders, from producers to consumers. In this article, we model two hypothetical infrastructure development plans for the Appalachian Basin—northward pipeline expansion and southward pipeline expansion—and compare them to a baseline scenario.3 We explore the implications of both scenarios on regional pricing and shifts in gas flows to understand how the value chain might be impacted under each scenario.

Record Plaquemines LNG Ramp Sets up ‘Knife Fight’ in Gulf Coast for Natural Gas Supply --Barely a year after first gas, the Plaquemines LNG terminal has become a behemoth accounting for roughly one-fifth of U.S. exports — marking the fastest ramp-up ever for an LNG project. The surge has redrawn natural gas flows and is already lifting prices east of Henry Hub as pipelines strain to keep pace.
Chart comparing NGI’s Tennessee Line 500 daily gas price with Gator Express Pipeline receipts for Plaquemines LNG from October 2024 through November 2025. The graphic tracks Tennessee Line 500 prices in $/MMBtu alongside TGP/GXP, TETCO/GXP, and CGT/Wilkinson Bayou nominations, as well as Gator Express Pipeline operating capacity in Bcf/d. Data sources: NGI’s Daily GPI, Wood Mackenzie, and NGI calculations. At A Glance:
Plaquemines feed gas calls race to 3.5 Bcf/d
TGP 500L premiums surge past 60 cents
Station 85 pipelines near full capacity

Delfin Midstream Expands Buyer Base With Emerging Gulf LNG Player - Delfin Midstream Inc. has inked a tentative contract with a developing Middle East trading firm as it inches toward a targeted final investment decision (FID) later this year.nMap illustrating the Delfin LNG Project in the Gulf of Mexico. It shows the Delfin onshore facilities in Louisiana connected via the UTOS pipeline to offshore points WC167 and WC327, leading to the Port Delfin Deepwater Port and FLNG vessel locations. Includes a compressor station near the coast and an inset map highlighting the project’s location off Louisiana. Source: Delfin LNG LLC.At A Glance:
Delfin inks 15-year, 1 Mt/y deal
Vitol will deliver cargoes for Abu Dhabi-based IRH
Delfin targets FID “in coming weeks”

ConocoPhillips Lands Overseas Buyers for Port Arthur LNG Offtake- ConocoPhillips’ LNG offtake portfolio has ballooned to 10 million tons/year (Mt/y), and the company has paired about half of those volumes with overseas customers after working in recent years to build out its holdings across the global natural gas value chain.World map illustrating ConocoPhillips’ global LNG strategy, showing major LNG assets and sales points in North America, Qatar, Australia, and Asia. Arrows trace LNG trade routes from projects such as Rio Grande, ECA, APLNG, and Qatar to Europe’s TTF and Asian markets. The lower section outlines the company’s LNG value chain from gas production and liquefaction to shipping, regasification, and end-use sales. Source: ConocoPhillips. At A Glance:
All equity LNG projects on track
LNG sales agreements signed in Europe, Asia
Full-year production guidance increased

Golden Pass LNG Nears Startup as QatarEnergy Shipment Heads for Texas — The Offtake - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 3.4 Bcf: A vessel carrying a cargo from QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffen export facility has signaled it could reach Golden Pass LNG by Dec. 1, according to Kpler ship tracking data. The vessel Imsaikah left Qatar Oct. 29 carrying roughly 3.4 Bcf in LNG. In a call with analysts earlier in the week, ExxonMobil management disclosed it expected a cooldown cargo to reach the export facility in Southeast Texas by the first week of December.
• 10 Mt: U.S. LNG producers shipped more than 10 million tons (Mt) in cargoes during October, marking a new monthly high point for the country and global gas exports, according to Kpler data. October’s total volumes marked a 0.97 Mt rise month/month and 2.55 Mt more than the same period last year. Exports were driven by continued commissioning at the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi LNG facilities, as well as demand from Europe to shore up winter storage.
• 16 Bcm/y: XRG, an investment unit of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc), is looking to join the 12 Mt/y capacity Argentina LNG project developed by YPF SA and Eni SpA. XRG has signed a tentative agreement to explore opportunities to join the project aimed at creating bridging gas assets in the onshore Vaca Muerta formation with two floating LNG (FLNG) production units. Combined, the two FLNGs could export the equivalent of 16 Bcm/y. XRG is a 10% stakeholder in Eni’s Coral North project, which was sanctioned last month.
• 85%: Adnoc has finalized a sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Shell plc for offtake from its Ruwais LNG project, placing more than 85% of export capacity under contract. A unit of Shell agreed to take up to 1 Mt/y in LNG for 15 years from the Ruwais export project currently under development in the United Arab Emirates. Adnoc, which took a final investment decision on Ruwais in 2024, disclosed that the SPA marks more than 8 Mt/y of the project's 9.6 Mt/y export capacity under long-term contracts.

Feedgas Demand Climbing from Colder Temperatures and Commissioning Volumes | RBN Energy - U.S. LNG feedgas demand continues ticking up as cold temperatures approach, nearing record highs with almost every terminal running at full capacity. Flows averaged 16.7 Bcf/d last week, up from 16.6 Bcf/d the week before, with intake at every terminal except Cameron slightly higher. Plaquemines LNG intake is at near full capacity with all 18 blocks producing LNG. Separately, commissioning progress at Corpus Christi Stage III continues. The project (see picture below), originally planned for seven mini-trains, was expanded by two additional trains earlier this year under the Midscale Expansion Project. Currently, two trains are operating, and a third is expected online before the end of the year. Train 1 achieved first LNG in December 2024 and was placed in service in March. Train 2 achieved its first LNG in June, and construction of Train 3 was nearly finished at the end of October. Train 4 is expected to produce first LNG this month. For more insights about the U.S. LNG industry, check out our LNG Weekly Voyager.

US natgas prices gain 3% to 7-month high on record LNG export flows — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a seven-month high on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.2 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $4.266 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 11. That price increase kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a third consecutive day for the first time since early October. With gas futures up about 37% over the past three months and oil futures down about 12% over the same time, the oil-to-gas ratio, the level where oil trades compared with gas, fell to 14-to-1, its lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas. So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas, down from 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023). LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output rose to a record 109.4 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output so far this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 18, which should limit heating demand. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.2 bcfd this week to 114.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was higher. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.2 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to take in more natural gas on Monday, data from financial firm LSEG and company filings with state environmental regulators showed, in a sign that it was back in service after a major outage on Saturday.

US natural gas futures fall 3% on record output, mild weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Wednesday on record output so far this month, ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mostly mild weather that should keep heating demand lower than normal through late November. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.1 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $4.232 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 11 for a second day in a row. Despite the price decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory for a fifth straight day for the first time since October 2024. Traders noted that prices declined despite record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants so far this month and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a second day in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. It was the 24th time Waha prices have dropped below zero this year and compares with an average of $1.34 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 20, which should limit heating demand. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.3 bcfd this week to 118.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was higher. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.4 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October. Around the world, gas prices traded near $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Hit 7-Month High on Surging LNG Export Demand --U.S. natural gas futures rose 3% to a seven-month high as LNG export demand neared record levels and storage injections slowed. Record output and strong LNG flows continue to tighten U.S. gas markets heading into winter. (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a seven-month high on Nov. 6 as near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants boosted demand for the fuel and as a federal report showed last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms injected 33 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 31. That figure was in line with the 32-Bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 68 Bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 42 Bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.5 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $4.357 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The price increase kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a sixth straight day for the first time since May 2024. In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a third day in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in November, up from 107.0 Bcf/d in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 Bcf/d in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 21, which should limit heating demand. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.5 Bcf/d this week to 118.4 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Nov. 5. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.4 Bcf/d so far in November, up from a record 16.6 Bcf/d in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months. The Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving south across the Indian Ocean toward the Atlantic Ocean and Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's 2.4-Bcf/d Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analysts' comments. The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around December 1, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment at the plant as part of its commissioning. The facility is expected to start producing and exporting LNG later this year or early next year.

Three U.S. regions each produce more natural gas than most countries -EIA- Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook and Short-Term Energy Outlook

• The United States produced 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, 75% more than the world’s second-largest natural gas producer, Russia, in 2023, the most recent year for which we have comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production.
• The United States has been the world’s largest producer of natural gas since 2009. More recently, U.S. natural gas production has increased further, averaging 106 Bcf/d for the first half of 2025 (1H2025).
• Three regions in the United States are among the top 10 natural gas-producing areas in the world when ranked independently against other natural gas-producing countries:
  • The Appalachia region, in the northeastern United States, encompasses the Marcellus and Utica shale plays and ranked as the second-largest producer with 33 Bcf/d in 2023. More recently, production from the region has continued to average 33 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
  • The Permian region, in Texas and New Mexico, ranked fifth worldwide with 21 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Permian has since increased to average 25 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
  • The Haynesville region, in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, ranked as the eighth-largest natural gas-producing area with 15 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Haynesville has declined slightly to average 14 Bcf/d in 1H2025.

Shale Giants Slash Thousands of Jobs as Lower Prices Bite - U.S. oil and gas producers seek efficiencies and cost reductions amid lower oil prices this year compared to 2024 levels.Fresh off multi-billion-dollar mergers and acquisitions in the 2023-2024 period, many major producers in the U.S. shale patch are restructuring businesses and operations. The result so far has been a series of announcements and reports of workforce reductions across geographies and basins.The latest such report came this week, by Reuters, which reported a memo it had seen regarding layoffs at the Canadian business of U.S. oil and gas giant ConocoPhillips.The U.S. firm, one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies based on production and proven reserves, has its Canadian headquarters in Calgary, Alberta. ConocoPhillips Canada develops the Surmont oil sands project in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta and opportunities in the unconventional liquids-rich Montney play in northeastern British Columbia. According to the memo on workforce reductions, ConocoPhillips’ employees in Calgary will be notified virtually on November 5, and those in Surmont and Montney will be told in person on the following day, sources told Reuters.“We will not be sharing area-specific workforce numbers for current or impacted employees and contractors,” ConocoPhillips spokesperson Dennis Nuss told Reuters via email.At present, the company employs about 950 people in Canada.The number will shrink later this year and next year as ConocoPhillips and other large oil and gas producers look to streamline structures, eliminate duplicate roles or inefficiencies, and save costs.ConocoPhillips already has plans to slash workforce numbers by up to 25% across functions and geographies to simplify the organization and cut costs.Last year, ConocoPhillips completed its acquisition of Marathon Oil Corporation, in an all-stock deal with an enterprise value of $22.5 billion, including debt.The Marathon Oil transaction was viewed by analysts as ConocoPhillips pursuing scale and size and diversified exposure in several U.S. shale basins.Months before the announcement of the deal, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told CNBC in an interview in March 2024, “We have said our industry needs to consolidate.”“There are too many players. Scale matters, diversity matters, and we are going through a natural cycle of that in the business,” Lance added. “It’s healthy for our business. It’s the right thing to be doing for our business,” according to ConocoPhillips’ top executive.The consolidation wave is now receding, and the wave of streamlining and cost-cutting is underway among the major U.S. and European oil firms.The U.S. shale patch is seeing the deepest jobs cuts in three years as producers respond to lower oil prices with slowing drilling activity and greater efficiencies through consolidation and cost cuts.The biggest producers are cutting headcount, in the thousands, following blockbuster acquisitions in recent months.Chevron, which bought Hess Corporation for $53 billion, has said it would reduce its workforce by 20% by the end of 2026 as part of wide cost cuts. This includes 800 jobs in the Permian.ExxonMobil will slash 2,000 jobs worldwide, with nearly half of these cuts at its Canadian business, Imperial Oil.Exxon has already eliminated about 400 jobs in Texassince it acquired Pioneer Natural Resources in a $60-billion deal finalized in May 2024.UK-based BP, which is under intense shareholder pressure to slash costs and reduce debt, said in August that it was accelerating the reduction of contractor numbers and office-based workforce.“Across the supply chain, we’ve delivered around $900 million of savings. Over a third of our supply chain spend reductions seen so far reflect a reduction in contractors, significantly enabled by technology,” BP’s chief financial officer Kate Thomson said on the Q2 earnings call.BP has already reduced contractor numbers by 3,200, and expects a further 1,200 contractors to exit by the end of 2025.“Beyond that, we will continue to rigorously review the remaining contractor activity across our businesses and functions,” Thomson added.An executive at an oilfield services firm said in comments to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey last month, “Operators are less prone to utilize outside services and continue to reduce their own workforces.”

Crude Awakening — Cold Fronts, High Pressure, and Low Water in the Houston Ship Channel - The first cold front of the season swept through the Gulf Coast last week, trailing rolling thunderstorms and ushering in a warning of a familiar challenge for shippers and terminal operators: draft restrictions and negative water levels. At the Port of Houston for example, draft limits are set using a “zero tide” reference based on Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) (essentially, the long-term average of the lowest daily tide over a 19-year cycle.) When storms push through, water levels may dip below this reference point, falling to 'negative water level', limiting vessel maneuverability and reducing under keel clearance (UKC). Operators account for such risk by building extra cushion into load plans and closely watching PETSS (Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge) water-level forecasts. Failure to account for these changes can quickly escalate into costly disruptions - from scheduling delays and demurrage charges to reduced cargo volumes and hull damage if run aground. Additionally, interference with seaports such as the Port of Houston, where an average of 1.2 MMb/d of crude is exported daily, is not ideal. Although last week's water level warning issued by the Houston Pilots may have been mild, the real test will come as winter tightens its grip in the months ahead. A strong cold front brings denser, high-pressure air that presses down on the water surface. At the same time, prevailing south/southeast winds which normally push water into Galveston Bay often reverse sharply to the north/northwest, blowing water out of the bay instead. The combination of higher pressure and wind reversal can trigger a rapid 1-2 foot drop in water level across Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel within hours.The result? A vessel that’s comfortably within limits one day could suddenly find itself too deep the next. As we move deeper into winter, each passing front will be another test of preparation and adaptability to prevent costly disruptions later in the season.

Hess Midstream Expects Bakken Gas-to-Oil Ratio to Move Higher --Hess Midstream expects its oil volumes to plateau while natural gas volumes increase into at least 2027, a function of Chevron reducing its Bakken rig count from four to three in Q4 2025 and higher gas-to-oil (GOR) ratios in the producing wells, according to the company’s quarterly earnings call on November 3. Executives said Chevron’s decision to keep its Bakken production steady at about 200 Mboe/d was a positive. Chevron has a 37.8% interest in Hess Midstream after its $60 billion acquisition of Hess.“That model works really well for the Hess Midstream model, where we’re focused on long-term execution,” Hess Midstream CFO Mike Chadwick said. “At that level … that provides ongoing free cash flow generation and ongoing financial flexibility.” Hess Midstream said it suspended early engineering activities at its proposed Capa gas processing plant in September and removed the project from its forward plan. Planned for north of Tioga, ND, the plant had a designed capacity of 1.25 Bcf/d. The company’s assets (see map below) are primarily in the Bakken and Three Forks shale plays in the Williston Basin area, one of the most prolific crude oil producing basins in North America.

Pregnant women living near the Aliso Canyon gas blowout were more likely to have babies with low birth weight | UCLA Health

• Women in the later stages of pregnancy who lived near the blowout in northwestern L.A. County had a nearly 50% higher-than-expected chance of having a low–birth-weight baby.
• Low birth weight has been shown to increase the risk of autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in childhood, as well as serious adult diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and coronary artery disease.
• The UCLA-led study is the first assessment of the impacts of the 2015–16 disaster.

Women in their final trimester of pregnancy who lived within 6.2 miles of the Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Storage Field blowout — the largest uncontrolled release of toxic air pollutants from an underground gas storage facility in U.S. history — had a nearly 50% higher-than-expected chance of having a low–birth-weight baby, according to a new study by UCLA researchers. The Aliso Canyon disaster began Oct. 23, 2015, and lasted until Feb. 11, 2016. During those 112 days, approximately 109,000 metric tons of methane and other toxic air pollutants, including benzene and heavy metals, were emitted into the atmosphere near the Porter Ranch neighborhood in northwestern Los Angeles County. Residents reported experiencing foul odors, oily mists and a range of health symptoms both during the blowout and after returning home following evacuations from the area. In their peer-reviewed study, published today in the journal Science Advances, the UCLA researchers reviewed all Los Angeles County birth records from October 2010 to October 2019, a total of more than a million births. The researchers focused on 666 births among women who lived within the 6.2-mile-radius impact zone downwind of the facility and who were exposed to the blowout for at least one month during the last 12 weeks of their pregnancy. Among those births, they found that 64 babies, 9.6%, were born with low birth weight (less than 5.5 pounds). This compares with 6.6% of babies born with low birth weight in the years prior to the blowout in the impact zone — a 45.5% higher likelihood during the blowout. Across the rest of Los Angeles County, outside the impact zone, 6.8% of babies were born with low birth weight during the period of the blowout; the likelihood was a 41.2% higher for babies born inside the zone. When excluding low–birth-weight babies born prematurely and looking only at low–birth-weight babies born after at least 37 weeks of gestation — called “term low birth weight” — the prevalence was 66% higher than expected for women exposed in their last trimester. Prior to the blowout, 2.7% of babies were born with term low birth weight in the rest of Los Angeles County and 2.6% in the Aliso Canyon impact zone. During the blowout, however, 4.5% of babies in the impact zone were term low birth weight. Thousands of environmental samples taken during and after the blowout showed elevated levels of pollutants known to affect birth weight, including heavy metals and volatile organic compounds such as benzene. At the blowout’s peak, an estimated 58 metric tons of methane were released per hour. This was on par with the daily emissions of 4.5 million cars, the study reported. Low birth weight often correlates with poor fetal growth and nutrition, and hundreds of studies have linked it to in utero pollution exposures. Low birth weight is also associated with developmental and behavioral disorders such as autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and it increases the risk of several leading adult diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and coronary artery disease. The researchers also observed a relationship between proximity to the gas plume and birth weights even within the semi-circular impact zone, which they divided into three sections for comparisons. In the two sections of the impact zone where the gas plume was most concentrated, 11.1% of women exposed during their final trimester of pregnancy had a low–birth-weight baby. This figure was more than 70% higher than the occurrence of low birth weight in the same region prior to the blowout and more than 70% higher than the rest of L.A. County during the blowout. Following the blowout, the prevalence of low–birth-weight babies in the affected area returned to expected levels, the study showed. “Increasing evidence points to in utero and early-life environmental exposures as critical determinants of health through a person’s life,” “Some of the children develop normally, but the risk of all these adverse outcomes goes up when they are born with low birth weight.”

Remote sensing helps confirm Aliso Canyon methane plumes traveled at least 6.2 miles downwind during blowout | UCLA - Using a mix of airborne and satellite images as well as data from ground sensors, a UCLA-led research team has reconstructed how the shape and reach of the methane plumes from the 2015–16 Aliso Canyon gas blowout evolved during the 112-day disaster.Starting from the beginning of the disaster in October and up until the end of the disaster in February, methane plumes from the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility likely reached at least 6.2 miles downwind from the blowout site into the nearby Porter Ranch neighborhood in northwestern Los Angeles County.The study also confirmed earlier estimates of total emissions of nearly 100,000 metric tons of methane during the blowout, which is equivalent to 20% of all of California’s annual methane emissions and double the typical methane emission rate for the Los Angeles Basin. The Aliso Canyon disaster began Oct. 23, 2015, and lasted until Feb. 11, 2016. The UCLA-led Aliso Canyon Disaster Health Research Study team and partners have been working to assess the short- and long-term health effects of the gas blowout, the largest uncontrolled release of toxic air pollutants from an underground gas storage facility in U.S. history. Before properly investigating those health effects, the researchers needed to determine how far from the blowout site the emissions reached and how the distance from the Aliso Canyon facility affected the amount of potential exposure. Determining the reach and intensity of the methane plumes allows the researchers to get a more informed estimate of how many people were potentially affected.The research team reviewed cloud-free images of the site captured by the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellites to see where methane was present in the atmosphere early in the blowout event and how far it moved from the source into the nearby areas.Then they used additional images collected later during the blowout — some from the Hyperion satellite and others from an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), which was flown on an airplane.The final data sets came from the California Air Resources Board’s ground monitors in the Aliso community. The two monitors collected hourly methane concentrations from December 2015 through March 2016. Researchers collected the hourly methane concentrations for the dates and times that aligned with clear-sky remote sensing images to connect and quantify correlation between satellite and ground-based observations.

Fuel spill estimate jumps to over 80,000 litres after Kamloops train derailment--B.C.’s Ministry of Environment and Parks now says more than 80,000 litres of jet fuel may have spilled into Kamloops Lake after a train derailed over the weekend. The Environmental Emergency Branch (EEB) says it was informed of a Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) train derailment close to Cherry Creek around 7 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 1. “The preliminary assessment is that one locomotive and approximately 17 cars, a mix of loaded and empty rail cars, were involved,” the EEB said. “Four of the cars are loaded with fuel, five loaded with gypsum, and one loaded with pulp products. The other rail cars are empty, including three that last contained gasoline.” According to the government’s incident report, the spilled content consisted of aviation fuel and gypsum. On Tuesday, the ministry said response crews removed fuel from one of the rail cars and took the fuel off site. In an update Wednesday evening, it said CPKC removed more product from the one remaining fuel car. Before the first operation, the ministry said, “preliminary estimates suggest approximately 12,700 litres of aviation fuel were released from the rail car to the environment.” After the second operation, it said, “approximately 68,000 litres of aviation fuel was released from this rail car to the environment prior to the production transfer.” “With the estimation from yesterday that 12,700 litres of aviation fuel was spilled from the other rail car, this brings CPKC’s total preliminary estimation of product lost to 80,700 litres between the two rail cars that were carrying aviation fuel.” Michael Grenier, electoral area director for Area J in District, tells 1130 NewsRadio that number is “disturbing.” “Interior Health have advised the people across the lake at Frederick to not drink the water. They are doing testing over there.” Frederick, he says, is a seasonal community, and he estimates it’s occupied by only four to five permanent residents in the current off-season. Grenier explains that “released into the environment,” as the province described, means some of the fuel may have landed on the ground before the water. In a statement to CityNews Tuesday, CPKC said its environmental teams have been on site collaborating. The company claimed, “The leak of fuel has been contained, and containment booms will remain in the water around the site as work on the cleanup and car removal continues.” By the morning after the derailment, the ministry says crews had deployed a containment boom in the water. A second boom, extending the coverage perimeter, was added the following day. When some oil sheen was spotted escaping, the booms were reportedly reinforced, and additional booms were placed downstream. On Monday, crews began to clean up the spill by skimming and applying peat moss and absorbent material. But the EEB says its staff has detected fuel odour at the small community of Frederick, across the lake. As of Wednesday evening, three empty cars “containing residual gasoline remain” at the site. “One is on the slope and two are in the water, secured to the land.” The ministry says EEB staff will be at the site again Thursday. The Transportation Safety Board of Canada says it is still investigating the cause of the derailment. CPKC says the rail corridor had reopened to train movement by Monday morning after safety inspections. The province says the results of water samples are still pending. As of Wednesday evening, it said CPKC’s preliminary “surface water quality” samples collected on Nov. 2 and 3 have been tested and the results have been forwarded to the Interior Health Authority for interpretation. “Ongoing data collection from sampling events will continue to guide and inform future response actions.” Grenier said Wednesday the district is concerned about the results. “We have four community water systems downstream that need that testing,” Grenier explained, adding that the closest one is only seven kilometres from the spill site. “Downstream communities want absolute certainty that the water at the intake is not compromised, and we need that water tested.”

Enbridge Misses Q3 Profit Estimates on Higher Capital Costs -Enbridge missed third-quarter profit estimates on Friday, pressured by higher financing costs from capital investments including U.S. gas utility acquisitions, sending its shares down nearly 2% in premarket trading. The Calgary-based pipeline operator had bought three Dominion Energy utilities last year — East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas and Public Service Co of North Carolina — in a $14 billion deal, including debt. It reported adjusted core profit of C$2.31 billion ($1.65 billion) from its liquid pipelines unit, down from C$2.34 billion a year earlier, due to lower contributions from the Flanagan South and Spearhead pipelines. The company's Mainline system, the largest pipeline network in North America, saw third-quarter adjusted core profit marginally fall to C$1.34 billion due to lower toll pricing. The system has the capacity to move 3 million barrels per day of crude from Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest. Enbridge sanctioned roughly C$3 billion in new projects during the quarter and its growth backlog now sits at about C$35 billion. It reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted core profit to be between C$19.4 billion and C$20.0 billion. The company said it did not expect tariffs to have a material impact on its current operations or deployment of capital, but would continue to monitor trade developments.

Second Train at LNG Canada Comes Online, Boosting Global Supplies Heading Into Winter -LNG Canada has started producing the super-chilled fuel from its second liquefaction train months after the first unit came online and started sending additional cargoes into a loosening global market. Table titled “Other North America LNG Netback Prices” showing November 6, 2025 data for LNG netbacks to Western Canada, Costa Azul, Cove Point, and Transco Zone 5 versus NGI’s AECO, SoCal Border, and Waha forward prices. The chart highlights large differentials, with average Western Canada netbacks near $10.15/MMBtu and AECO forwards at $2.23/MMBtu, indicating strong LNG export margins across North America.At A Glance:
Full capacity expected next year
Over 20 cargoes exported since startup
Other Canadian projects on track

Cedar LNG Deal Marks Next Step for Petronas in North America - Malaysia’s Petronas is increasing its investment in North American natural gas with offtake from an additional Canadian export project.Line chart showing daily natural gas prices for Henry Hub, NOVA/AECO C, and Westcoast Station 2 from November 2024 to November 2025, with Henry Hub in dark blue, NOVA/AECO C in gold, and Westcoast Station 2 in light blue. Prices spike in early 2025 before stabilizing midyear. Source: NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index. At A Glance:
North American supply up 1 Mt/y
Cedar LNG targeting LNG for 2028
Pembina to finalize 0.5 Mt/y deal

Imperial Continues to Push Oil Sands Production to New Highs | RBN Energy -Imperial Oil, one of Canada’s largest integrated oil companies, reported its third quarter earnings on October 31. The company’s oil output consists exclusively of oil sands (bitumen) and synthetic crude oil (upgraded bitumen). Its bitumen operations are focused on its Kearl mine and Cold Lake thermal operations. Synthetic crude oil is produced via its share agreement in the Syncrude upgrader (58.74% Suncor, 25% Imperial, 9.03% Sinopec, 7.23% CNOOC). Imperial is owned ~69.6% by ExxonMobil.

• The Kearl mine produced a record 316 Mb/d of bitumen in the third quarter (Imperial 71%: 224 Mb/d, ExxonMobil 29%: 92 Mb/d). The company remains ahead of its plans to expand output from Kearl with targeted upside from current levels of 50 Mb/d by 2030.
• Cold Lake operations averaged 150 Mb/d as several expansion projects continue to be optimized. The company is targeting output growth of upwards of 25 Mb/d by 2030 with additional upside potential.
• Syncrude operations recorded 78 Mb/d in the quarter. Further expansion is possible as the Syncrude partnership pursues expansion of mined bitumen via the Milred Lake mine extension with Imperial targeting its share of output at ~85 Mb/d by 2030.

Imperial’s latest production results remain ahead of schedule, especially for its Kearl asset. The company’s planned expansions of Kearl and its Cold Lake operations (green bordered area in table below) remain an integral component of RBN’s view that crude oil production in Western Canada can grow in the range of 500 Mb/d by 2030 (final row in red text).

Sempra Nears Launch at Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG Terminal --A new source of demand for Permian Basin natural gas is close to reality as Sempra’s Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG terminal in Mexico nears completion.Aerial photograph of Sempra’s Energía Costa Azul LNG terminal near Ensenada, Mexico. The image shows two large LNG storage tanks, processing infrastructure, and a marine jetty extending into the Pacific Ocean where an LNG carrier is docked. Source: Sempra Infrastructure.At A Glance:
ECA commissioning moves into final phase
Port Arthur LNG construction on track
Ecogas sale bids set by year-end

Milei’s Midterm Victory Reflects ‘Renewed Mandate’ for Reform as Argentina Eyes Natural Gas Growth - Argentina is gaining traction as a destination for investment in natural gas production and infrastructure, a trend underscored by libertarian President Javier Milei’s decisive midterm triumph.Chart showing Argentina’s natural gas production by type and sub-type from January 2024 through September 2025, divided into conventional, shale, and tight gas. Production peaks around mid-2024 and mid-2025, with unconventional gas (shale and tight combined) accounting for about 60–65% of total output. Data compiled by NGI from Argentina’s Energy Secretariat. At A Glance:
Milei allies carry ‘all major economic provinces’
LNG, pipeline projects sanctioned
Legislative reforms seen as long lasting

Ecuador's Petroecuador faces new emergency in its main oil pipeline - (UPI) -- The state-owned oil company Petroecuador has declared an emergency in the Trans-Ecuadorian Pipeline System, or SOTE, its main crude transport line, after landslides triggered by activity from the El Reventador volcano in the Amazonian province of Napo. The measure will accelerate mitigation work and allow urgent contracts to protect infrastructure from the risk of spills and structural damage, the newspaper Primicias reported. The SOTE, which carries more than 60% of Ecuador's oil from Amazonian fields to the port of Esmeraldas, runs through one of the country's most unstable areas that also is affected by regressive erosion from the Coca River. According to a Petroecuador resolution signed by general manager Leonard Bruns, the event was classified as "unforeseeable" under the Public Procurement Law because of the combined effects of volcanic activity, heavy rainfall and unstable terrain. It is the second emergency declared this year along the same section of the pipeline. In July, erosion at the confluence of the Coca and Loco rivers forced operations to shut down for nearly a month on both the SOTE and the OCP, Ecuador's second major oil pipeline operated by a private company. The stoppage sharply reduced national production and caused losses of more than $100 million due to halted exports. Although the new emergency has not completely stopped the flow of crude, Petroecuador warned of imminent risks if erosion and volcanic activity continue to advance. Technicians are working on "Variant No. 10" of the SOTE, a two-kilometer detour in the area at which the Coca and Loco rivers meet, considered one of Ecuador's most geologically vulnerable zones. Petroecuador said its goal is to prevent a rupture in the pipeline and ensure the continued transport of about 330,000 barrels per day -- Ecuador's main source of exports and foreign revenue. Each day of suspension could mean losses exceeding $20 million, according to official estimates based on the average price of Oriente crude. The emergency declaration, in effect for 60 days, allows direct contracts for specialized work and services without the usual bidding deadlines. Petroecuador said the projects will include slope stabilization, drainage, pipeline reinforcement and continuous monitoring of the erosion front, as well as installing an early warning system for nearby communities. Since 2020, regressive erosion of the Coca River has shifted its course several miles upstream, destroying roads, bridges and sections of both state and private pipelines. Experts warn that unless the ground is stabilized and the pipeline route redesigned, the risk of further disruptions will remain. "We are acting with the utmost urgency to protect the infrastructure and prevent a major environmental impact," Petroecuador said in a statement, stressing that the emergency is meant to prevent damage, not respond to one that has already occurred. In 2025, Ecuador's oil production has ranged between 400,000 and 450,000 barrels per day following the July shutdowns of the SOTE and OCP pipelines, down from 467,000 barrels per day before the emergency. The government aims to close the year at around 500,000 barrels per day if mitigation work and new investments prove effective. During the first half of this year, oil accounted for only 24.2% of Ecuador's exports, compared with 31.2% a year earlier.

Europe’s LNG buildout slows amid anticipated decline in gas demand | Hydrocarbon Engineering -Europe’s construction of LNG import terminals is losing momentum, indicating that countries across the continent overestimated future gas demand, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has reported. So far in 2025, Germany has shut down or shelved terminals, while a court has ordered another in France to leave the port of Le Havre as the terminal has been sitting idle for more than a year. Europe’s LNG regasification increased by 13% in 2023 and 8% in 2024. It will rise by 2% this year, according to the updated European LNG Tracker from the IEEFA. The deceleration in Europe’s LNG terminal buildout comes as IEEFA expects the continent’s gas consumption and LNG imports to fall by 15% and 20%, respectively, between 2025 and 2030. “Europe has installed or expanded 19 LNG terminals since the beginning of 2022 as it pivots away from imports of Russian pipeline gas. Yet a series of recent terminal cancellations and closures suggests that European countries have overstated the continent’s LNG demand,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, Lead Energy Analyst, Europe, at IEEFA. “European countries that continue to build or expand LNG terminals risk investing in unnecessary infrastructure as the energy transition accelerates.” Europe has increased its reliance on LNG imports in 2025 after Russian gas pipeline flows via Ukraine ended on 1 January. Europe’s LNG imports jumped by 24% year on year in 1H25 as gas demand rose. The US has reinforced its position as Europe’s main supplier of LNG. European imports of US LNG increased by 46% year on year in 1H25. This meant the country accounted for 57% of the continent’s LNG imports. Terminal updates so far in 2025 include a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) stopping operations at Germany’s Mukran port about one year after it was commissioned. In France, a court has ruled that an FSRU at the port of Le Havre should be removed, in part because of the terminal’s low utilisation rate and the country’s declining gas consumption. TotalEnergies commissioned the terminal in October 2023, but it has not been used since August 2024. Elsewhere, a technical issue at a terminal in Greece reduced its utilisation rate to 2% in 1H25, while commissioning delays led Germany to sublet an FSRU to Jordan. “The LNG industry often touts the role of LNG terminals in securing energy supply. Europe’s recent experience of terminal delays and technical issues challenges this notion. Reducing gas consumption has been pivotal in providing energy security,” said Jaller-Makarewicz. Europe’s imports of Russian LNG increased by 2% year on year in 1H25, meaning they reached a record high for any half-year period. The EU continues to increase its imports of Russian LNG despite sanctioning the country’s LNG operations. While the EU will ban imports of Russian LNG from January 2027, the bloc’s imports of LNG from the country rose by 7% year on year in 1H25. France accounted for 41% of Europe’s imports of Russian LNG in 1H25, followed by Belgium (28%), Spain (20%), the Netherlands (9%), and Portugal (2%). From the beginning of 2022 to June 2025, EU countries spent about €120 billion on pipeline gas and LNG imports from Russia.

TotalEnergies Working to Limit JKM Exposure as LNG Prices Weaken amid Rising Supplies -TotalEnergies SE expects to earn less on its LNG sales in the fourth quarter as more supplies hit the market, natural gas prices fall and crude oil demand remains weak. BP boosts spending on oil and gas while trimming investment growth in transition businesses under its revised capital plan. At A Glance:
LNG sales price falling as market loosens
Mozambique LNG poised to restart
$2 billion of divestments planned

Japan to Start Buying LNG for Emergency Reserve -- Japan will start buying liquefied natural gas for an emergency reserve from January next year, Reuters has reported, citing two unnamed sources from the country’s trade and industry ministry.The purchases aim to boost Japan’s Strategic Buffer LNG program at a monthly rate of at least 70,000 tons, the sources told Reuters, for a total of at least 840,000 tons for 2026. Over the last two years, Japan has been buying LNG at a rate of 210,000 tons annually, the publication noted. Japan is the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas due to its energy commodity scarcity. These imports recently came into the spotlight after the United States stepped up the pressure on Russia’s energy industry and buyers of Russian energy commodities, urging them to switch to U.S. energy instead. Initially, Japan told Washington it would find it difficult to replace Russian gas from the Sakhalin-2 project, in which Japanese firms Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold minority stakes, saying it was crucial for the country’s energy security.Later, however, executives from some of Japan’s biggest utilities said they believed that they would be able to find an alternative gas supply in case they were no longer able to import Russian LNG. JERA, which imports LNG from Sakhalin-2 under contracts expiring in 2026 and 2029, can tap alternative supply, and “there is a good chance that we will be able to do something” if it has to halt imports of Russian LNG, Naohiro Maekawa, an executive officer at the utility, said last month. JERA will now buy at least one LNG cargo every month for the Strategic Buffer LNG program, the ministry sources told Reuters. If unused, the cargoes would either be used domestically or resold, the sources also said.“Shifting to a monthly basis is not directly related to Russian energy issues, but it enables us to respond to any emergency situation,” one of the unnamed officials said.

Oil Demand to Rise Through 2032 as Energy Transition Stalls | OilPrice.com

• Global demand for crude oil is projected to continue increasing until at least 2032, according to a Wood Mackenzie report, indicating that the world is significantly off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals.
• Despite trillions of dollars invested in the energy transition, fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—still satisfy approximately 80% of the world’s primary energy needs due to their widespread availability, cost-competitiveness, and deep integration into the energy system.
• The report suggests that the energy transition has slowed down because alternative energy sources like wind and solar face challenges such as weather dependence, output variability, and higher true costs when accounting for backup generation and storage.

Global demand for crude oil is going to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2032, Wood Mackenzie has warned in a new report that says the world is way off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals. The drivers: transport and petrochemicals.The report will not come as a surprise to those following energy development closely over the past five years or so, as efforts to put the world—or at least parts of it—on the path to an energy system whose emissions of carbon dioxide are equal to the emissions it absorbs and stores first intensified and then slowed down. Meanwhile, despite trillions of dollars being spent on that transition, oil, coal, and natural gas continue to satisfy around 80% of the world’s primary energy needs.“Fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in the energy system,” Wood Mackenzie said in its report. This might be a little puzzling in the context of frequently repeated claims that wind and solar power generation is no cheaper than generation from hydrocarbons and that over the long term, electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles.It is worth remembering, however, that the cost of both power generation and vehicles can be calculated in different ways, yielding different results. For wind and solar, for instance, the preferred cost calculation is based on a metric dubbed levelized cost of energy, LCOE ignores a lot of the costs associated with electricity generated by wind or solar installations by excluding, among others, the cost of backup generation capacity that kicks in when the wind dies down or the suns sets—and that cost of backup capacity keeps going higher because hydrocarbon generators are penalized by being made to pay for their carbon emissions.This is, put simply, why the transition has slowed down recently and the ultimate net-zero target remains far from sight. This is also why oil, gas, and coal remain cost-competitive even with all the carbon levies that transition-enthusiastic governments are throwing at the energy industry. Wood Mackenzie remains hopeful, however, outlining several scenarios for the future. The only ones ending with a net-zero energy system, however, require a massive increase in the money spent on decarbonizing the global economy.Global investment needs to rise to $4.3 trillion per year over the period to 2060, Wood Makenzie said in its report, adding the money would go towards funding projects in the power generation, grid, upstream, critical minerals, and “new technologies” fields. “Achievable, but only with a global alignment for scaling investment that is currently lacking,” the consultancy warned. Theoretically, a lot of things may look achievable from where Wood Mackenzie stands. In practice, it has been a major challenge to get governments from different parts of the world to agree on a transition at all. And even after they agreed, many are pursuing energy security rather than a transition, as evidenced by the fact that it is not just oil and gas demand growing: coal demand is growing as well, even though there are lower-emission alternatives to what is widely known as the dirtiest hydrocarbon of all. In fact, coal demand hit an all-time high last year, despite years of decarbonization efforts, the massive surge in wind and solar installations and the record sales of electric cars—and it might break this record this year.Because of this real-life context, Wood Mackenzie described a base-case scenario that has hydrocarbons continue to cover the bulk of global energy demand over the observable future, with wind and solar only going towards covering additional, new demand. Yet in fairness, they cannot cover all the incremental demand as evidenced by the rush to build new baseload generation and extend the life of existing power plants as demand for electricity from data centers soars. In other words, oil, gas, and coal demand growth may remain a fixture of the global energy system for even longer than 2032.In short, the energy transition is not happening as planned because it could not happen as planned unless countries spend most of their money singularly on transition-related activities. By the way, the European Union has been trying to do just that in the past three years—and failing so far. The only thing that transition advocates have to show for their effort is energy cost inflation and less reliable electricity supply—except in China where wind and solar are solidly backed up with massive coal capacity.

The Illusion of Indefinite Growth and Its Economic Consequences - Gail Tverberg --Economists, actuaries, and others tend to make forecasts as if whatever current situation exists will continue indefinitely or will perhaps improve a bit. No one wants to consider the possibility that things will somehow change for the worse. Politicians want to get re-elected. University presidents want their students to believe that their degrees will be truly useful in the future. Absolutely no one wants to hear unfavorable predictions. The issue I see is that many promises were made during the period between the end of World War II and 1973, when oil prices were very low, and most people assumed that oil supply could grow endlessly. No one stopped to think that this was a temporary situation that likely could not be repeated. If things didn’t work out as planned, debt bubbles could bring down the economy. This was a heading I used in my talk at the recent Minnesota Degrowth Summit: Our economy has been built as if a growing supply of $20 oil (EROI of 50 – 100) would continue! Simply add more debt if this isn’t true. In this post, I will provide a few highlights from my recent talk. I also provide a link to a PDF of my Degrowth Summit talk and a link to a Vimeo recording of the summit, which includes a transcript. To access the transcript and an outline of the timings of the various talks, scroll down on the front page of the recording. Joseph Tainter spoke first; there was a recorded section showing clips by other speakers that only online viewers saw, and I spoke last (starting at about 1:55 on the video).

Russia’s oil revenues plunge amid sanctions, falling prices --Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell sharply in October, highlighting growing pressures on the country’s federal budget. According to the Finance Ministry, taxes collected from oil and gas producers totaled 888.6 billion rubles ($9.7 billion) last month, a 27% decline compared with October 2024. Revenue from the mineral extraction tax, a key budget source, also dropped 26% year-on-year to 671.3 billion rubles, Caliber.Azreports , citing Russian media. Over the first ten months of 2025, total oil and gas income reached 7.5 trillion rubles, down 2 trillion from 9.54 trillion in the same period last year. The decline has accelerated steadily, from 14% in the first five months to 21% by October. The downturn is attributed to a combination of falling crude prices, a stronger ruble, and tightening Western sanctions. In late October, the US imposed new restrictions targeting Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for roughly half of the country’s crude exports, or 2.2 million barrels per day. Approximately 70% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports are now affected by these sanctions. Analyst Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global noted that “a 5–10% drop in Rosneft and Lukoil exports combined with wider discounts on Russian crude could cost the state budget up to 120 billion rubles ($1.3 billion) per month.” Adding to the pressure, Russia’s Urals crude averaged $53.99 per barrel in October, well below the government’s initial forecast of $70 and a later revision to $56. Economist Yegor Susin warned that revenue shortfalls could worsen in November and December if prices remain low. The 2025 budget had initially projected 10.94 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenue, with 1.8 trillion earmarked for the National Wealth Fund. With the revised outlook now at 8.6 trillion rubles, the government plans to offset the shortfall through higher taxes on non-oil sectors, a VAT hike to 22%, increased small-business levies, and an ambitious 12-trillion-ruble borrowing plan. Forecasts for 2026–2028 show revenues remaining well below 2024 levels, signaling sustained fiscal challenges.

Trump Weighs Exempting Hungary From Russian Oil Sanctions President Donald Trump told Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday that the U.S. is “looking at” exempting Hungary from sanctions targeting Russian oil a move that chips away at one of the few symbolic levers the U.S. still maintains over Russia’s energy exports while signaling flexibility toward an ally that’s long played both sides of the energy chessboard.The exemption talk comes just as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to halt Russian oil shipments to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, saying the flow “will disappear from Europe” as Kyiv moves to stop Russia’s war financing via energy exports. Hungary’s top refiner MOL, however, says it can already source up to 80% of its crude from non-Russian suppliers, which is a dramatic shift from two years ago when it argued diversification was impossible. Hungary currently relies on Russian crude for about 86% of its oil supply, and its refineries were built to handle Russia’s Urals blend. Transitioning feedstock means costly reconfigurations and higher input prices, but MOL’s latest statement hints that it has quietly made more progress than Budapest has publicly admitted. If true, the claim undermines Orbán’s narrative that sanctions relief is essential for Hungary’s energy security.Trump’s willingness to discuss exemptions isn’t new. In both domestic and foreign policy, he has long used public flexibility as a negotiating tool — keeping opponents guessing while extracting concessions. In this case, it could be a signal to Brussels, Kyiv, and even Moscow that Washington wants leverage over all three. For the oil market, an exemption would have limited immediate impact on physical flows as Druzhba supplies are relatively small in global terms. But it could set a dangerous precedent. If Hungary wins special treatment, others dependent on Russian barrels, such as Slovakia, may demand the same. That would erode the sanctions regime’s credibility and further blur the lines between geopolitics and energy pragmatism.

Oil prices edge higher after OPEC+ pauses output hikes - Gulf Times -Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ announced a pause in output hikes during the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a cautious stance amid ongoing demand uncertainty.Brent Crude gained 0.47% to trade at $65.24 per barrel, after closing $0.07 higher on Friday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.45% to $61.43 per barrel.During an online meeting on Sunday, eight OPEC+ member states agreed to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025, consistent with the increases implemented in October and November. The group subsequently announced a pause on further output hikes for January, February, and March 2026, citing "seasonality" and typically weaker demand during the first quarter. Both Brent and WTI fell by more than 2% in October, marking their third consecutive monthly decline and hitting their lowest levels in five months on October 20, amid concerns about oversupply and economic uncertainty linked to potential US tariff measures.

Oil Prices Rise As OPEC+ Moves To Prevent Oversupply Amid Global Tensions - Crude oil prices climbed on Monday following an announcement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to temporarily halt further production hikes in a bid to avert a potential oversupply in global markets. The group’s decision comes amid concerns over slowing demand and heightened geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have increased volatility in energy markets. At the start of trading, Brent crude rose by 1% to $65.21 per barrel, compared to the previous close of $64.57, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 1.1% to $61.37 per barrel. OPEC+ announced that eight of its member nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December but pause further increases from January to March 2026 to prevent a potential supply glut. The decision follows a similar 137,000 bpd output hike approved for November, signaling a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cuts made in April 2023. The organization described the move as consistent with “healthy market fundamentals” supported by low global stockpiles. OPEC+ reiterated its pledge to monitor global oil demand trends closely and maintain flexibility to adjust output depending on market shifts. The group also reaffirmed the continuation of 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts first introduced in November 2023. Analysts say the decision highlights OPEC+’s efforts to manage market stability amid uncertain conditions. “This period is typically one of reduced demand,” “By pausing further hikes, OPEC+ is signaling an awareness that the market may struggle to absorb additional supply—especially if disruptions to Russian exports are short-lived.” Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified over the weekend, with both nations targeting critical energy infrastructure as winter approaches. According to Ukrainian officials, overnight Russian drone strikes triggered a fire at a truck parking area in the Odesa region, killing two people and disrupting energy supplies. Governor Ivan Fedorov reported that nearly 58,000 residents in Zaporizhzhia lost power following the attacks. Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted 67 out of 79 drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched by Russia. In southern Russia, authorities in Krasnodar reported damage to an oil terminal and tanker in the port of Tuapse after debris from intercepted Ukrainian drones fell on the site. Emergency services confirmed there were no casualties but noted that a nearby railway station also sustained minor damage. As geopolitical risks escalate, energy analysts say oil prices may remain supported in the near term despite concerns about slowing consumption.

Production Increases to Hold Off in First Quarter of Next Year - The oil market ended the session higher on Monday but continued to trade within last Tuesday’s trading range after OPEC+ decided to increase its oil output by 137,000 bpd in December and to hold off production increases in the first quarter of next year, easing fears of an oversupply. The market gapped slightly higher from $61.38 to $61.40, which it quickly backfilled, before it traded to a high of $61.50. However, the market gave up some of its gains and sold off to a low of $60.51 by mid-morning amid some weak factory data in Asia. The crude market later bounced off its low and traded back towards its high before it settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled up 7 cents at $61.05 and the January Brent contract settled up 12 cents at $64.89. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.59 cents at $2.4053 and the RB market settling down 77 points at $1.9161. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed on a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year as the producers’ group moderates plans to regain market share due to increasing fears of a supply glut. The eight OPEC+ members taking part in the group’s monthly meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria, agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 bpd, the same as for October and November. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Deputy Secretary, James Danly, said that he does not think there will be an oil glut in 2026. Speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, he said “We have a demand signal for energy that is going up rapidly.” The U.S. Department of Energy’s Deputy Secretary also said that the impact of Russian sanctions will not be felt drastically by allies and friends. He said that it is difficult to predict the effects of the sanctions. The heads of some of Europe’s biggest energy producers also challenged forecasts of an oil supply glut next year, pointing to increasing demand and easing production. Speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi Eni CEO, Claudio Descalzi, said “I don’t think we can have an excess of supply in 2026.” TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, said annual oil demand growth was increasing steadily at around 1%. He added that while China’s demand growth has halved compared to five years ago, India is emerging as a new driver in demand. Murray Auchincloss, BP’s CEO, said oil supply growth outside OPEC+ could decline by April. He said prices, which have fallen by about 13% so far this year, would depend on OPEC+ production decisions, Chinese stockpiling and the impact of trade sanctions. He added that the industry has to expand in countries such as Abu Dhabi, Iraq and Libya to keep up with demand growth. OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, said that the group was still seeing positive signs for oil demand and did not expect any surprises in the market. He said “We are making sure we maintain the supply demand balance.” United Arab Emirates Energy Minister, Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei, when asked about the possibility of an oil glut in 2026, said that all current observations indicate strong demand in the year ahead, speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference.

Oil prices steady despite OPEC+ plans to pause output increases (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Monday as the market balanced the latest OPEC+ supply increase with the group's plans to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026 along with fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia. Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $64.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 7 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $61.05. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers, agreed on Sunday to raise output by a small 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. OPEC+ also agreed to pause increases in the first quarter of next year. "Any negative price implications from OPEC’s furtherance of this quarter’s 137,000 bpd production increase were offset by the cartel’s suggested pause in output advances after the end of this year," On Monday, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.50, citing the decision by OPEC+ to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of next year and recent on Russian oil assets. Last month, the International Energy Agency said the global oil market faces a surplus next year of as much as 4 million bpd. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year. European oil CEOs at a conference in Abu Dhabi cautioned against being too bearish on oil. Analysts at RBC, a Canadian bank, said Russia remains a supply wild card after U.S. sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil and attacks on energy infrastructure. Headwinds for Asia's big manufacturing hubs persisted in October, business surveys showed on Monday. Asia is the world's biggest oil-consuming region. Chinese oil demand growth has slowed since 2020 as the country transitions to greener energy, oil major TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Monday. He said he remained optimistic long-term due to rising demand in India. A strong U.S. dollar weighed on oil prices by making crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar hovered at a three-month high against a basket of peers. Federal Reserve officials kept pressing competing views of risks facing the U.S. economy, and the debate should intensify ahead of the central bank's next policy meeting in the absence of data suspended due to the federal . Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday he's in no hurry to cut interest rates again with inflation still too far above the central bank's 2% target. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said she supported the U.S. central bank's last week, and will want to sift through incoming data to assess if another reduction in borrowing costs is warranted at the December 9-10 meeting. Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and oil demand by reducing costs for consumers. U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods. President Donald Trump said the U.S. military could deploy troops to Nigeria or carry out air strikes to stop what he called the killing of large numbers of Christians in the West African country, an OPEC member and Africa's biggest oil producer.

Oil Prices Slide As Weak US Manufacturing Outlook Dampens Global Demand SentimentGlobal oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns over weak fuel demand in the United States weighed heavily on market sentiment. The decline followed disappointing manufacturing data that pointed to an extended slowdown in industrial activity — coinciding with the country’s longest-running government shutdown. Adding to downward pressure, eight member countries of the OPEC+ alliance — including both OPEC and non-OPEC producers — postponed previously planned output increases for early next year, a move interpreted by traders as an acknowledgment of potential oversupply risks. Brent crude futures slipped 0.4% to $64.56 per barrel from Monday’s $64.81 close, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also dropped 0.4% to $60.66 per barrel. The OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and including Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, had initially agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. However, according to OPEC’s statement, the next phase of the output adjustment will now take effect in March 2026 instead of January, due to seasonal considerations. The postponement — part of a gradual unwinding of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary output cuts introduced in April 2023 — triggered renewed speculation that global oil supply could outpace demand next year. Despite this, the alliance reiterated its commitment to flexibility, pledging to pause or reverse policy shifts if market conditions require. On the demand side, weak US economic data added to the bearish outlook. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in October, signaling continued contraction for the eighth consecutive month. Analysts say this points to sluggish industrial activity and weaker fuel consumption during the winter season. Investors are also monitoring the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) upcoming weekly crude inventory report for fresh supply cues. Market data shows that speculative traders increased their net long positions in ICE Brent by 119,046 contracts last week, leaving a total of 171,567 long positions as of Tuesday. Meanwhile, Russia — one of the world’s top diesel exporters — faces ongoing production disruptions due to Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks targeting its refining infrastructure. This has intensified uncertainty in the global middle distillate market. According to Baker Hughes’ latest report, active US oil rig counts declined by six to 414 last week, reflecting continued pressure on drilling activity amid softer prices. Still, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US crude production reached a record 13.79 million bpd in August, up 2.9% year-on-year. Analysts warn that expectations of an oversupplied market in 2026 could limit US production growth, keeping global oil prices under sustained downward pressure.

Oil Prices Fall Towards $60 As Supply Fears Mount -Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning as concerns about oversupply increased after OPEC’s decision to pause supply hikes and as a stronger U.S. dollar eased buying from holders of other currencies. As of 8:44 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the U.S. benchmark price, WTI Crude, was flirting with the sub-$60 a barrel price it reached two weeks ago after the Trump Administration slapped sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. The U.S. benchmark crude futures were trading down by 1.44% at $60.17. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, slipped below $65 per barrel as it was down by 1.22% on the day at $64.10.After weak trading on Monday during which traders sought to decipher what OPEC’s latest move means, speculators appeared to have decided by Tuesday that the pause in output hikes is bearish as OPEC+ is likely seeking to prevent a price collapse in case the glut fears materialize. On Sunday, the eight OPEC+ producers who have been withholding supply to the market decided to pause their reversal of the production cuts in the first quarter of 2026, after a small increase in December. Citing “seasonality” and historically weaker demand in the first quarter of any year, OPEC said it would halt the production increases in January, February, and March. “(The) market may see this as the first sign of acknowledgement of potential oversupply situation from the OPEC+ front, who have so far remained very bullish on demand trends and ability of market to absorb the extra barrels,” Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, told Reuters on Tuesday. OPEC+ continues to publicly project a bullish view of the market balances. One of the OPEC+ producers party to the deal to unwind the cuts, the UAE, on Monday dismissed fears of a glut, with its Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei saying “I’m not going to talk about an oversupply scenario. I can’t see that.” A stronger U.S. dollar also added to the downward pressure on oil prices early on Tuesday.

Oil settles lower on stronger dollar, fears of oversupply (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as weaker manufacturing numbers and a stronger dollar weighed on demand, while the OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of next year could signal the group's concern about a potential supply glut. Brent crude futures closed 45 cents, or 0.7% lower at $64.44 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 49 cents, or 0.8%, at $60.56. "Crude futures are feeling the pressure today from high U.S. dollar valuation. The U.S. stock market is also seeing a heavy downside correction in the early trade as the government shutdown may be beginning to add downside pressure, which could eventually hurt domestic fuel demand," The dollar climbed to a four-month high against the euro on Tuesday as raised doubt about the prospect of another rate cut this year. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced assets such as oil more expensive to those holding other currencies. Wall Street fell sharply following warnings of a market selloff from some big U.S. banks. The U.S. entered its 35th day, matching a record set during President Donald Trump's first term for The toll is mounting. Food assistance for the poor was halted for the first time, federal workers from airports to law enforcement and the military are going unpaid and the economy is flying blind with limited government reporting. In Asia, Japan's manufacturing activity shrank in October at the fastest pace in 19 months, a private-sector survey showed. French oil major TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to rise until 2040 before declining gradually as energy security concerns and a lack of political coordination slow efforts to cut emissions, it said in its annual energy outlook report. On Sunday, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, agreed to a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of 2026. On Tuesday, a Reuters survey found that OPEC's oil output rose further in October after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production. The scale of the increase slowed sharply from and the summer months. The boost to oil prices from the U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft was fading, . "Come Nov 21 when the sanctions (on other companies that continue to trade with the Russian companies) go into force they will likely evaporate, disappear or be pushed out in time." Market participants are now awaiting the latest U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), due later in the day. A preliminary Reuters poll showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week.

Oil Prices Drift Lower as Demand Weakness Weighs on Markets -Oil prices slipped modestly in early Asian trading on Wednesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.71% to $60.13 and Brent crude trading 0.62% lower at $64.04. The subdued tone reflects a market caught between weak demand signals and lingering supply concerns. On the demand side, investors remain cautious about global growth prospects, especially in Asia, where slower industrial activity and weaker energy consumption are weighing on outlooks. At the same time, a firm U.S. dollar is adding pressure by making dollar-priced crude less attractive to holders of other currencies.Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is attempting to control supply by committing to a pause in output hikes in early 2026 after a modest addition scheduled for December. Recent price movements, however, suggest OPEC+ discipline is unlikely to provide meaningful near-term support if demand fails to strengthen. On the inventory front, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed unexpected builds in U.S. crude stocks, adding to bearish sentiment. Rising U.S. inventories often signal softer refiner demand or weaker flows into storage, either of which can dampen price momentum. Moreover, global oil markets are seeing signs of mild oversupply as non-OPEC production continues to grow and refiners in Asia are absorbing fewer incremental barrels.The early Asian session thus reflected constrained upside. Traders appear reluctant to push prices higher without a compelling demand catalyst or a surprise supply disruption. The market appears to be in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals one way or another. Looking ahead, today's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and fresh macroeconomic data from Asia will be watched closely. Any indication of sharper demand deterioration could push prices lower, while a surprise draw or a geopolitical disruption in Venezuela or even Nigeria could spark an uptick.

WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude Build, Record US Production Oil prices weakened for a second session early on Wednesday as a report showed an unexpected surge in U.S. oil inventories, keeping demand and over-supply concerns top of mind for traders."API data indicated the largest US crude inventory build in more than three months, with stockpiles rising by 6.5 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the EIA later today, it would mark the biggest gain since late July," Saxo Bank noted.The unexpected rise in stocks comes amid persistent warnings the oil market is oversupplied as rising production from OPEC+ and Western Hemisphere producers climbs above demand growth. The concerns were amplified by OPEC+'s weekend decision to hike supply for a third month by 137,000 barrels per day in December, following on the September end to the return of 2.2-million bpd of production cuts.The question now, is will the official data confirm API's worrying build. API

• Crude +6.5mm
• Cushing +400k
• Gasoline -5.7mm
• Distillates -2.5mm

DOE

• Crude +5.2mm - biggest build since July
• Cushing +300k
• Gasoline -4.7mm
• Distillates -643k

The official data confirmed API's large crude build (biggest weekly addition since July) but we are also seeing product inventory drawdowns for a fifth straight week. Graphs Source: Bloomberg. There was a fairly chunky lurch in the adjustment number last week.While the outright value from both weeks isn’t massive, there was a positive swing of 874,000 barrels a day (from -481k to +393k). US Crude production rose once again to a new record high of 13.65mm b/d despite recent rig count stability...Oil price are holding at the lows of the day after the official data with WTI finding support at $60 for now...Finally, as MT Newswires reports, rising output comes as the global economy slows with U.S. tariff policies hampering global trade and cutting into demand. Economic data this week showed slowing manufacturing activity in the United States, China and Japan, pushing investors away from over-heated risk assets.”Japan's manufacturing sector shrank at its fastest pace in 19 months. Tepid new orders in the US led to the eighth consecutive monthly contraction in factory activity. A private survey reached the same conclusion in China, where expansion slowed last month, while manufacturers across other Asian economies are clearly feeling the impact of US tariffs in the form of declining orders," PVM Oil Associates noted.Still, concerns over Russian supply is offering support for the energy complex, as Ukraine continues its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Reports said Ukrainian drones on Tuesday struck at a Lukoil oil refinery in Russia, the second attack on Russian refineries this week, while Russia suspended exports from its main Black Sea oil export port following a Ukrainian attack.

Crude Market Declines as Dollar Strengthens and Inventories Build - The crude market fell on Wednesday as it remained weighed down by concerns of a possible supply glut and weak economic data. U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth consecutive month in October while China’s factory activity fell for a seventh month in October. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was also a three month high, supported by a division among the Federal Reserve Board, indicating low odds for an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting in December. The market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading following the API report, which showed a large build of 6.52 million barrels in the latest week. The market retraced some of its losses and rallied to a high of $61.09. However, the market once again erased its gains ahead of the release of the EIA report and remained pressured after the report showed a large build in crude stocks of 5.2 million barrels. The market sold off to a low of $59.52 ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled down 96 cents at $59.60, while the January Brent contract settled down 92 cents at $63.52. The product markets settled in negative territory despite the draws in product stocks, with the heating oil market settling down 1.21 cents at $2.4325 and the RB market settling down 1.35 cents at $1.9093. The EIA reported that U.S. field production of crude oil increased to a record high for a second consecutive week. The EIA said output reached 13.651 million bpd during the week ending October 31st, surpassing the prior all-time high of 13.644 million bpd during the week ending October 24th. The agency also said gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. Midwest region fell to a record of 42.536 million barrels during the week ended October 31st. On Tuesday, the EIA said oil and gas producers will need to step up drilling to sustain or increase output due to rapid declines in production from existing wells. It said that as U.S. crude oil and natural gas production have increased, so has the volume of production decline from existing wells. It said production from oil and natural gas wells declines over time as reservoir pressure decreases and new wells are required to maintain the same production level. The CEO of Diamondback Energy told shareholders this week the company plans to hold the line on its shale oil production in the Permian Basin with the current oil price of just under $60 per barrel. The State of Alaska reported that North Slope crude production in October rose by 10,000 b/d from September levels to 467,673 b/d, but down some 3,000 b/d from October 2024 levels. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 803,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 7th, increasing available refining capacity by 189,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 500,000 bpd in the week ending November 14th. The FERC on Monday rejected Colonial Pipeline’s proposed tariff modifications that would have changed how the company handles different gasoline grades with varying RVP specs. The changes the company had hoped would have streamline operations and increased shipping capacity by 10,000 b/d. Gibson Energy’s CEO told shareholders this week the company is expecting to receive its first oil from the Cactus II pipeline connector this week at its South Texas gateway Terminal marine export facility.

Saudi Arabia Slashes December Oil Prices to Defend Market Share in Asia | OilPrice.com -Saudi Arabia has announced a sharp reduction in its official selling price (OSP) for crude oil destined for Asia in December, an announcement that follows closely on the heels of the OPEC+ decision to halt output increases in early 2026.Saudi Aramco will sell its flagship “Arab Light” grade to Asian buyers at a premium of $1.00 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for shipments in December, down by $1.20 from the November level. Meanwhile, its Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades were each cut by $1.40 to premiums of $0.05 and $0.10 per barrel, respectively. The Arab Extra Light grade saw a drop of $1.20 to a premium of $1.30 per barrel. While significant, the cuts fall within market expectations.The decision comes just days after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day for December and then pause further supply increases in the first quarter of 2026. Since April this year, OPEC+ has lifted output targets by around 2.9 million b/d (approximately 2.7 % of global supply), and the pace has recently been slowed amid gof those additions have added to concerns about oversupply.Saudi Arabia’s price adjustment appears to reflect two interlinked trends. Firstly, a well-supplied Asian market facing increasing volumes of crude, and secondly, Riyadh’s desire to maintain competitiveness and market share even as it positions for higher volumes.For Asian refiners, especially those in China, India, Japan, and South Korea, this price cut offers a relatively more attractive feedstock cost for Saudi barrels. Given that Asia remains the largest seaborne crude-importing region, the move may stimulate increased term nominations or spot buying of Saudi crude. On the other hand, the lower premium also signals concerns about demand going forward and the potential of oversupply.In the short term, traders will be watching demand from Asian refiners for December closely, specifically whether spot flows of Saudi barrels increase. Immediately after the news, oil prices were trading flat, with WTI hovering at $59.61 while Brent was changing hands at $63.53.

Oil Prices Steady as US Dollar Index Eases-- Oil prices steadied Thursday morning as crude benchmarks met technical resistance levels and the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from recent highs. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery rose $0.10 to $59.70 barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent for January delivery gained $0.11 to $63.63 bbl. December RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0337 to $1.9430 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures jumped $0.0736 to $2.5061 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.429 points to 99.63 against a basket of foreign currencies. Thursday morning's action in oil futures represents a technical steadying rather than any change in market sentiment, which remains bearish. The latest warning sign of weak demand growth came on Wednesday with Saudi Aramco releasing official selling prices for December deliveries. Arab Light deliveries to Asia were cut by $1.2 bbl from November to a $1 bbl premium over Dubai/Oman, while medium and heavy grades were slashed by $1.4 bbl. The largely anticipated cut in Saudi OSP was likely a reflection of an already well-supplied Asian market as the region's main crude suppliers have drastically ramped up output this year amid less-than-stellar demand growth. On Sunday, the eight OPEC+ countries that since April together have unwound some 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in production cuts, agreed to another 137,000-bpd output increase in December. However, the eight also agreed to pause further hikes in the first quarter of 2026 in what was seen as a concession to the broader market consensus of a looming crude oil glut as demand growth remains well below OPEC's expectations.

Geopolitical Premium from Ukraine’s Continued Strikes on Russian Refineries - The oil market ended the session lower, with some geopolitical premium from Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian refineries offset by the market’s concerns about an oversupply and the large build in crude stocks and weak demand. The market retraced some of its previous losses in overnight trading as it traded to a high of $60.51 amid reports that Ukraine struck a Russian refinery. However, the market erased its gains amid the concerns of a supply glut. The market was further pressured by the news that Saudi Arabia lowered its December official selling price of crude bound for Asia. It sold off to a low of $58.83 by mid-morning before it once again retraced some of its losses and traded towards the $59.50 level ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled down 17 cents at $59.43 and the January Brent contract settled down 14 cents at $63.38. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 6.36 cents at $2.4961 and the RB market settling up 5.63 cents at $1.9656.S&P Global Commodities at Sea data is showing that diesel and gasoil exports out of the U.S. Gulf to Europe reached a new all-time high in October reaching 1.7 million mt, besting the prior record of 1.6 million mt set back in August 2024. Demand for U.S. distillates has grown given the new U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia along with heightened Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries recently. S&P Global Commodities at Sea has also estimated that Russian exports of diesel and gasoil for the week ending November 3rd stood at just 382,000 mt, down some 38% from the prior week. Russia’s Finance Ministry data showed that the country’s oil and gas revenue fell by almost 27% in October to 888.6 billion roubles or $10.93 billion from the same month a year earlier, amid weak oil prices and a strengthening rouble. Insights Global reported that gasoline stocks independently held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub in the week ending November 6th increased by 10.55% on the week but fell by 5.7% on the year to 1.058 million tons, while gasoil stocks fell by 3.21% on the week but increased by 7.59% on the year to 2.198 million tons and fuel oil stocks increased by 15.34% on the week but fell by 15.87% on the year to 1.06 million tons. Naphtha stocks increased by 11.81% on the week but fell by 6.69% on the year to 530,000 tons and jet kero stocks increased by 0.37% on the week and 16.83% on the year to 1.083 million tons. Chicago Federal Reserve President, Austan Goolsbee, said the lack of official data on inflation during the government shutdown “accentuates” his caution about cutting interest rates further. Cleveland Federal Reserve President, Beth Hammack, said ongoing high levels of inflation argue against the U.S. central bank cutting interest rates again. She said the Fed continues to face inflation pressures that are above its target and that monetary policy is currently at a setting barely restrictive of economic momentum, which means it is not doing a lot to help push down price pressures that exceed the central bank’s 2% target.

Oil Sees 3-Day Drop on Ample Supply Outlook -- Crude oil futures edged lower on Thursday, Nov. 6, for the third consecutive trading session on expectations of ample supplies and weak demand fundamentals. Expectations of higher global supply is putting downward pressure in the oil markets after eight OPEC+ nations decided to add 137,000 bpd output for a third straight month in December, over the weekend. However, OPEC+ recently announced that it would refrain from hikes in the first quarter of 2026. Since April, the group has added 2.9 million bpd to supply. The bearish sentiment was also driven by Saudi Aramco's decision to significantly cut its Official Selling Prices for December crude deliveries, dropping the key Arab Light grade to Asia by $1.20 bbl from November's level. Medium and heavy grades faced even steeper reductions of $1.40 bbl. The cuts reflect Saudi Aramco's view that the Asian market is already oversupplied with crude and that softer selling prices are the key to boosting demand, traders said. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery settled down $0.17 at $59.43 bbl. ICE Brent for January delivery eased $0.14 to $63.38 bbl. The week-to-date loss of 2.6% for WTI and Brent was the highest in a month. Refined product prices bucked the lower trend in crude. December RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0524 to $1.9617 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures rose $0.0611 to $2.436 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.429 points, settling at 99.63 against a basket of foreign currencies. This drop occurred amid economic uncertainties stemming from the federal government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1 and is now the longest in U.S. history.

Crude oil futures trade higher after recent losses -- Crude oil futures traded higher on Friday morning after recent declines, despite concerns about oversupply in the market. At 9.57 am on Friday, January Brent oil futures were at $63.75, up by 0.58 per cent, and December crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $59.82, up by 0.66 per cent. November crude oil futures were trading at ₹5304 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹5,262, up by 0.80 per cent, and December futures were trading at ₹5311 against the previous close of ₹5,278, up by 0.63 per cent. Market reports noted that the US and European sanctions on Russia and Iran have impacted the crude oil supplies to the major buyers in the world. This helped support the price of the commodity. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, said in the Commodities Feed that while the outlook for the oil market remains bearish with expectations for a large surplus in 2026, there are clear and obvious risks in the form of potential disruptions to Russian oil flows. Furthermore, the continued strength seen in refinery margins provides some resistance to the bearish outlook for the crude market. He said the Saudi Aramco cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for all grades of crude oil into Asia for December loadings. The Saudis cut the OSP on the flagship Arab Light into Asia by $1.20 per barrel month-on-month to leave it at a premium of $1 per barrel over the benchmark — the lowest level since January. The cut in OSPs follows OPEC+ agreeing on another supply hike of 137,000 barrels a day for December, while also deciding to pause further supply increases over the first quarter of next year, amid expectations of a growing surplus, he said. Referring to the recent weekly petroleum status report by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration), he said the US crude oil inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels over the last week, driven by an 873,000 barrels a day increase in crude oil imports. However, refined product numbers were more constructive, with gasoline inventories falling by 4.73 million barrels over the week, leaving US gasoline stocks at their lowest level since November 2022. November natural gas futures were trading at ₹388 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹380.90, up by 1.86 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), December turmeric (farmer polished) contracts were trading at ₹14,604 in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹14,642, down by 0.26 per cent. December jeera futures were trading at ₹20,450 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹20,500, down by 0.24 per cent.

Oil Edges Higher, Still Falling 2nd Week in Row (DTN) -- Crude futures rose modestly Friday but still ended down for a second straight week following 3-year lows in U.S. consumer sentiment that weighed on a market already struggling with weak demand and oversupply. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers reported its Index of Consumer Sentiment had fallen to lows not seen since July 2022. The slide coincided with a U.S. federal government shutdown that has stretched beyond a month, raising concerns about the economy. Ethanol RINS and ethanol cash prices were higher. December corn closed down 6 1/2 cents at $4.28 3/4 and March corn was down 6 1/2 cents at $4.43. Weak U.S. consumer sentiment weighs particularly on pricing of fuel such as gasoline and diesel, given the reduced spending appetite that Americans typically have at this time, oil traders said. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose on Chinese customs data showing October crude purchase up 2.3% from September and 8% year-on-year. But that support proved to be fleeting too as some of those volumes were earmarked for stockpiling -- a factor that normally weighs on the market. Negative sentiment had also built into the market from Saudi Aramco's decrease of its official selling prices for crude destined to Asia -- a pivot that indicated weaker demand. Earlier in the week, eight OPEC+ members resolved to suspend output increases in the first quarter of 2026 but still approved a 137,000-barrels per day (bpd) increment for December. U.S. commercial crude oil reserves, meanwhile, swelled by 5.2 million barrels (bbl) last week, as per Energy Information Administration data issued Wednesday. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery settled up $0.32 at $59.73 bbl, and ICE Brent for January delivery rose $0.33 to $63.71 bbl. For the week though, WTI and Brent fell about 2% each, after the prior week's slide of about 1%. December RBOB gasoline futures edged down $0.0238 to $1.9417 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures slipped $0.0123 to $2.4838 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.164 points to 99.42 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Crude recovers late in session on hopes over US-Hungary meeting (Reuters) - Crude prices recovered from a midday dip on Friday on hopes Hungary can use Russian crude oil as U.S. President Donald Trump met Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House. Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 a barrel, up 25 cents or 0.39%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $59.75 a barrel, up 32 cents, or 0.54%. Both benchmarks are poised to register weekly declines of around 2% as leading global producers raise output. "We're sort of watching that Trump meeting with Orban to see if some deal comes out that eases sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft," Hungary has maintained its reliance on Russian energy since the start of the 2022 conflict in Ukraine, prompting criticism from several European Union and NATO allies. Prices had fallen earlier in the day with Brent registering a loss on the impact of flight cuts due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, who are not being paid because the U.S. government shutdown. "The fact that we're shutting down flights is taking out a lot of diesel demand," The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to cut thousands of flights because of the shortage of air traffic controllers. Lower demand for jet fuel came as "the market continues to weigh a rising oil surplus against mixed macro," An unexpected U.S. inventory build of 5.2 million barrels reignited oversupply fears this week, s U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected on higher imports and reduced refining activity while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Private reports also pointed to a weakening U.S. labor market. U.S. Labor Department employment reports are not being issued because of the shutdown. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, decided on Sunday to increase output slightly in December. However, the group also paused further increases for the first quarter of next year, wary of a supply glut. The well-supplied market prompted Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, to announce a sharp reduction to prices for its crude for Asian buyers in December. European and U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, meanwhile, are disrupting supplies to the world's largest importers, China and India, providing some support for global markets. China's crude imports in October rose 2.3% from September and were up 8.2% from a year earlier at 48.36 million tons, customs data showed, against a backdrop of high utilisation rates at refineries in the world's largest oil importer. "China kept importing elevated amounts of crude in October," "That move keeps those barrels away from the OECD, where inventories remain low." Swiss commodities trader Gunvor said on Thursday that it had withdrawn its proposal to buy the foreign assets of Russian energy company Lukoil after the U.S. Treasury called it Russia's "puppet" and signalled that Washington opposed the deal. "Gunvor scrapping its Lukoil assets purchase suggests the U.S. is maintaining its maximum pressure campaign against Russia, and potential strict enforcement of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil,"

Aramco CEO says Saudi Arabia's cheap energy will turn kingdom into a global AI data center leader --Saudi Arabia will capitalize on its abundant supply of cheap natural gas and renewables to transform the kingdom into a global leader in artificial intelligence, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told CNBC in an interview. Aramco, the world's largest oil company, disclosed in late October that it plans acquire a significant minority stake in the new artificial intelligence company Humain. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, PIF, is the majority owner of Humain, which launched in May. Humain will become Saudi's national AI champion and will grow into a leader in the space, Nasser told CNBC's Sara Eisen in an interview that aired Tuesday. Humain CEO Tareq Amin has said Saudi is aiming to become the third biggest player in AI worldwide behind only the U.S. and China. "Here, if you want renewable, you will find the lowest cost renewable," Nasser said. "If you want gas, you will find the lowest cost gas. Energy is available and land is also available to build all these things." Data centers that train and run AI applications are requiring tremendous amounts of electricity, which is typically generated either by renewables and natural gas. The facilities will consume almost four times the electricity of the global electric vehicle fleet by 2030, Nasser said. They will primarily be powered by gas but also renewables, the CEO said. A significant portion of Armaco's capital spending is going toward boosting natural gas production more than 60% by 2030 to meet demand and toward the investment in Humain, Nasser said. Aramco is targeting capital expenditures of $52 billion to $58 billion this year, he said. Armaco sees oil and gas demand growing for decades to come on consumption in developing markets particularly in Asia, Nasser said. Demand will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day to 1.3 million bpd this year and almost the same in 2026, he said. "There is huge potential for growth in emerging economies," he said.

Ukraine's drone attack on Tuapse terminal sparks oil spill and fires - - An oil spill has been detected in the Black Sea following a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil terminal in the Russian port city of Tuapse, according to a BBC report that published satellite imagery showing a slick extending approximately 3.6 kilometres from the terminal into the sea. The attack occurred overnight on November 2, when residents of Russia’s Krasnodar region reported hearing multiple explosions. Regional authorities later confirmed that an oil terminal and two foreign vessels were damaged. Eyewitness videos showed at least three major fires — two at the deep-water berthing complex of LLC RN-Maritime Terminal Tuapse and another at the oil loading berth near the Southern breakwater.Reuters noted that the Tuapse port hosts the Tuapse Black Sea oil terminal and an oil refinery operated by Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company. The facility, which has a refining capacity of around 240,000 barrels per day, produces naphtha, fuel oil, vacuum gas oil, and high-sulphur diesel, supplying mainly China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Türkiye. The refinery has been targeted several times by Ukrainian drones since the start of the year. Reuters said it was unable to confirm whether the terminal remained operational after the latest strike.In response to the overnight attacks, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed its air defence systems destroyed 283 Ukrainian drones across several regions. Kyiv, however, maintains that such drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are retaliatory, citing Russia’s sustained bombardment of Ukraine’s power grid. Moscow insists its strikes on energy facilities are legitimate military actions, arguing that civilian infrastructure contributes to Ukraine’s war effort.Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials reported that Russia’s latest air attack on the night of November 2 left nearly 60,000 people without electricity in the frontline Zaporizhzhia region and killed two civilians in the southern Odesa region.In Russia’s Tuapse municipal district, debris from downed drones was found in five settlements, damaging windows in several homes and apartments. No casualties were reported, though the local railway station sustained minor damage.The attacks also prompted temporary shutdowns at numerous Russian airports, mainly in the country’s southern and western regions, according to the federal aviation agency Rosaviatsiya, which said the closures were introduced for safety reasons.

"Too Late To Retreat": Key Ukrainian Logistics Hub Near Fully Captured By Russia, "No Sign Of Counter-Offensive" -A key logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern defense network, Pokrovsk, is close to falling, with a number of sources indicating between 85 and 95 percent of the city is controlled by Russian forces. One Hungarian security expert is warning that a counterattack could be disastrous for Ukraine. With the fall of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, besides the obvious logistical and operational benefits it will provide Russia, it will also mean the loss of raw materials for Ukrainian steel production.However, one Hungarian security expert, Attila Demkó, tells Mandiner that if Ukraine dares to launch a counterattack, it will “probably regret it very much.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already acknowledged that Ukraine’s situation in Pokrovsk is extremely difficult, and that Russians have infiltrated the town, but he has also denied that the city had fallen into Russian hands. Ukrainian sources are harassing Russian supply lines with drone attacks, and posting the results on X.Some pro-Russian sources are claiming on X that 95 percent of the city, while prominent German journalist Julian Röpcke, known for his support for Ukraine, says at least 85 percent of the city is captured. He also says there “is no sign of a counter-offensive.”

UK Supplies Ukraine With More Storm Shadow Missiles for Strikes Inside Russia - The UK has supplied Ukraine with more Storm Shadow missiles, which are air-launched and have a range of 155 miles, for strikes inside Russian territory, Bloomberg reported on Monday.The report came about two weeks after the Ukrainian military claimed an attack on a Russian chemical plant using Storm Shadows, which signaled the US was again backing Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian territory since the British-made missiles require US targeting data to be fired. Ukraine first began firing Storm Shadow missiles into Russia last year, which coincided with the Biden administration giving it the green light to use US-provided ATACMS missiles in strikes on Russian territory. At the time, Russia responded by altering its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, making it clear that the US-backed missile strikes risk a major escalation from Moscow.It’s unclear how many Storm Shadows or ATACMS Ukraine currently has, and the Bloomberg report didn’t specify how many Storm Shadows the UK has recently supplied. The US has also been backing long-range Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, according to a report from theFinancial Times. The news about the Storm Shadow supply comes as President Trump has once again said that he doesn’t plan on providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, at least for now. Sending Tomahawks would mark a huge escalation of the proxy war since they have a range of over 1,000 miles and are nuclear-capable.

Netanyahu Says Leak of Video Showing IDF Soldiers Raping Palestinian Prisoner Was the 'Most Serious Public-Relations' Attack on Israel - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the leak of a video allegedly showing Israeli soldiers raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sede Teiman detentions facility last year was the “most serious public-relations attack” Israel has ever experienced. Netanyahu’s comments came after Israel’s top military prosecutor, Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, admitted to approving the leak of the video and resigned from her post amid outrage and criticism from Israelis who are accusing her of betraying the state.“It is perhaps the most serious public relations attack Israel has experienced since its founding — I cannot recall one so concentrated and intense,” Netanyahu said. “This requires an independent and impartial inquiry, and I expect that such an investigation will indeed take place.” The video was leaked last year after Israeli soldiers were arrested by military police on suspicion of raping the Palestinian prisoner, and far-right Israelis, including members of the Knesset and government, stormed Sde Teiman in protest of the arrests. Tomer-Yerushalmi said the video was leaked in response to the criticism of the Israeli military for detaining the soldiers. “Unfortunately, this basic understanding — that there are actions which must never be taken even against the vilest of detainees — no longer convinces everyone,” she said in a resignation letter.Israeli government officials haven’t offered criticism of the severe abuse of the Palestinian prisoner, just of the fact that the video was leaked. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has called the leak a “blood libel” against Israel.Amid the controversy over the leak, lawyers representing the five Israeli reservists who have been indicted for abusing the prisoner are calling for the charges to be dropped. The soldiers have been indicted for “severe abuse” but not for rape or sexual assault, despite the indictment saying that a soldier stabbed the Palestinian with a “sharp object” that caused a tear in his rectal wall.According to Israeli media reports at the time, the Palestinian prisoner was admitted to the hospital with an injury to his anus so severe that he couldn’t walk. According to Haaretz, the victim suffered a ruptured bowel, severe anal and lung injuries, broken ribs. and required surgery.

Israel Arrests Ex-IDF Lawyer Who Leaked Video Showing Israeli Soldiers Rape a Palestinian Prisoner - On Monday, Israeli police arrested the Israeli military’s former top prosecutor for leaking a video that showed Israeli soldiers raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sde Teiman detention facility in southern Israel last year.Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi resigned on Friday after admitting to approving the leak, something she said she did in response to the backlash over Israeli military police arresting IDF soldiers who were suspected of severely abusing the prisoner, which involved stabbing him with a sharp object that tore his rectum.Tomer-Yerushalmi went missing on Sunday for several hours, raising concerns that her life was at risk, but she was later found unharmed. The former military prosecutor has come under a torrent of criticism for her role in leaking the video, including from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called the leak the worst public relations attack on Israel in the country’s history.Israeli government officials have been strongly critical of the act of leaking the video, but of the horrific abuse inflicted on the Palestinian prisoner. According to Israeli media reports at the time, the prisoner was admitted to the hospital with an injury to his anus so severe that he couldn’t walk and also had severe lung injuries and broken ribs.An analysis from Haaretz was critical of the fact that the conversation has become about Tomer-Yerushalmi rather than the treatment of prisoners at Sde Teiman and other Israeli prisons, which have been widely documented.Palestinians held at Sde Teiman detention camp and Israeli whistleblowers who worked there havereported rampant abuse, including beatings, prolonged blindfolding, medical neglect, and sexual assault. At least 75 Palestinians have died in Israeli detention since October 7, 2023.

They Tortured Lambs In The West Bank - Caitlin Johnstone - Israeli settlers were filmed torturing lambs which belonged to Palestinians in the West Bank. Gouged their eyes out. Smashed them with cinder blocks. Beat them to death in front of their mothers. Lambs. It’s not the most evil thing the Israelis have done. Not by a long shot. Hell, all of human civilization subjects animals to cruel abuses every minute of every day through the horrors of factory farming. But this particular incident shines a special sort of light into exactly what’s going on behind Israeli eyes over there in that sadistic society. Think about the hatred and savagery you’d need to summon up within yourself to gouge the eyes out of a living baby sheep. Think about the kind of person you’d have to become to do something like that to an innocent creature. Those lambs didn’t know they were Palestinian. They didn’t know anything about Hamas or October 7 or the Nazi Holocaust, or any of the other reasons Israelis generally cite for their abuses of human beings. They were just sitting there, doing absolutely nothing that could possibly be construed as harmful by even the most talented hasbarist. And those settlers went in there and inflicted completely gratuitous suffering upon them. This, to me anyway, just says so much about the level of vitriolic hatred by which the state of Israel is sustained. It’s baked in to the way the whole state is set up.Israel cannot be sustained without nonstop violence. The violence cannot be sustained without hatred. The hatred cannot be sustained without systematic indoctrination.That indoctrination teaches Jewish Israelis from birth that the victims of their genocidal state are all inhuman monsters who would rape and murder them all if Israel ceased its apartheid abuses, militarism, and incessant violence. It teaches them that killing off their empathy and compassion is essential for their survival, because only the Jews who are willing to do whatever it takes to survive are going to make it. Just in case their childhood indoctrination isn’t enough to sway them, Israelis are also made to serve in the military where they spend two years killing off any remaining sense of human decency within themselves as they inflict acts of unfathomable cruelty upon Palestinians as part of their duty to the state.They are trained to believe they must have cold hearts and hard hands, because that is what’s necessary to do what must be done.Those settlers who tortured those lambs believed they were doing what needed to be done. They believe they need to terrorize the Palestinians and make life so nightmarish for them that they go somewhere else, which will allow for more Jewish settlement on Palestinian territory.Those tortured lambs were the product of everything that Israel is as a state. Which could of course be said about every victim of Israeli sadism over the last eight decades, human and non-human alike.This is Israel. This is Zionism. This is what it looks like when Zionists get everything they want. You’re looking at it. This is it.

Not Nearly Enough Food Is Entering Gaza as Israel Continues To Violate Ceasefire Deal - Far too little food and other types of aid are entering Gaza, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing aid agencies, as Israel continues to violate a key part of the ceasefire deal. Under the ceasefire agreement, Israel pledged to immediately allow the “commencement of full entry of humanitarian aid and relief” at a minimum consistent with the January 2025 ceasefire deal, under which Israel agreed to allow 600 aid trucks to enter Gaza per day. Gaza’s Media Office said on Saturday that since the ceasefire deal went into effect on October 10, an average of 145 aid trucks have entered per day. The UN’s World Food Program has said that just half of the needed food has been coming in, and, according to Reuters, Palestinian aid groups say overall aid volumes were between a quarter and a third of the expected amount. Last week, the UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA said one in 10 children screened in Gaza were still acutely malnourished. The WFP has said it has opened 44 food distribution points in Gaza, far short of its goal of 145. Abeer Etefa, a spokeswoman for the WFP, told reporters on Tuesday that just two border crossings into Gaza are open to aid deliveries, and none are open in northern Gaza, meaning Israel is not fulfilling its commitment to allow the “full entry” of humanitarian aid. “We need full access. We need everything to be moving fast. We are in a race against time. The winter months are coming. People are still suffering from hunger, and the needs are overwhelming,” Etefa said. “The majority of households that we’ve spoken to are only consuming cereals, pulses, dry food rations, which people cannot survive on for a long time. Meat, eggs, vegetables, fruits are being consumed extremely rarely.” Palestinians living in the rubble of Gaza are also facing a shortage of shelter as not enough tents have entered the Strip, and older ones are wearing out as winter is approaching. Khalid al-Dahdouh, a father of five who returned to Gaza City to find his home in ruins, told Al Jazeera that he built a shelter for his family using bricks salvaged from the rubble, held together with mud.“We tried to rebuild because winter is coming,” al-Dahdouh said. “We don’t have tents or anything else, so we built a primitive structure out of mud since there is no cement … It protects us from the cold, insects and rain – unlike the tents.”

Israel Is Still Starving Gaza, And Other Notes - Caitlin Johnstone - Israel is still blocking humanitarian groups from delivering the aid necessary to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza.In an article titled “Not enough tents, food reaching Gaza as winter comes, aid agencies say,” Reuters reports that “Far too little aid is reaching Gaza nearly four weeks after a ceasefire” due to Israeli restrictions preventing aid trucks from getting to their destinations, and that according to an OSHA report last week “a tenth of children screened in Gaza were still acutely malnourished.”A report from the UK’s Channel 4 News shows warehouses full of food that aid groups say isn’t being allowed into Gaza nearly as rapidly as needed.In an article titled “‘Under the Guise of Bureaucracy’ — Israel Blocks Humanitarian Groups From Delivering Essential Aid Despite Calm in Gaza,” Israeli outlet Haaretz reports that “Israel has implemented a new procedure requiring all humanitarian organizations operating in Gaza and the West Bank to reapply for official approval, with many denied, despite the relative calm in Gaza following the cease-fire.” They’re using bureaucratic red tape and arbitrary restrictions to put as much inertia on the effort to rush aid into Gaza as possible. As Electronic Intifada’s Ali Abunimah put it, Israel has “successfully rebranded its genocide as a ‘ceasefire.’” Still can’t wrap my head around the fact that internationally renowned activist Greta Thunberg said she was tortured and sexually humiliated by Israeli soldiers when she was abducted for trying to bring aid to starving civilians, and the world just shrugged and moved on. The US empire backs genocidal Gulf state monarchies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia because if those states were democratically governed their people would prioritize their own interests over the agendas of the west. They wouldn’t permit US military bases on their territory, and they never would have tolerated Israel and its abuses in the region. Fossil fuel policy would be set without regard for western interests. The entire region could long ago have united into a superpower bloc which rivaled or outmuscled the western power structure using its critical resources and trade routes. That’s why you see the US and its allies preaching about the values of Freedom and Democracy to the public while privately telling these tyrannical monarchies they can do whatever they want and receive the backing of the imperial machine. Not until their pet tyrant fails to sufficiently kowtow to the interests of the empire does the west suddenly get interested in advancing Freedom and Democracy in their nation. This is one of the major dynamics at play in Sudan. The United Arab Emirates has been backing the genocidal atrocities of the RSF and the US empire is placing no pressure on them to stop, because that’s part of the deal. As long as the UAE plays along with the agendas of the empire, the empire will tolerate or actively facilitate its abuses.We’ve all known someone like Israel. Someone who lies and manipulates all the time. Someone who’s always stirring up conflict and acting like the victim. Someone who’s obtained everything they have by stepping on top of others.Healthy people avoid such individuals like the plague. We have labels that we use to warn others to stay clear of them. Drama queen. Narcissist. Compulsive liar. Sociopath. Manipulator.Under ordinary circumstances such people gradually find themselves socially alienated by all but the most gullible and malleable codependents, because normal people can’t stand being around them.Israel is like if everyone was being forced to be that person’s friend at gunpoint. Say nice things to the sociopath and pretend to believe their lies or you’re getting your head blown off.Nations who oppose Israel’s crimes find themselves in the crosshairs of the imperial war machine. Organizations who oppose Israel’s abuses find themselves smeared, targeted, and proscribed as terrorist groups. Individuals who oppose Israel’s atrocities get fired, slandered, marginalized, censored, and silenced.The healthy impulse we all have in ourselves to pull away from such loathsome entities is being overridden by brute force. All normal people want to turn against Israel and do whatever is necessary to end its tyranny and abuse, but the imperial institutions are doing everything in their power to coerce them to comply.That’s the only reason Israel has any remaining support at all. Hopefully someday they won’t even have that.

The Gaza Ceasefire in the Age of TikTok -The Gaza ceasefire is technically still in effect, but it’s no longer functioning as an instrument of restraint. The deal that came into force on 10 October under U.S. mediation stopped large-scale fighting, yet Israel continues precision strikes around Khan Younis and Gaza City. Each action comes with civilian losses that undercut the original truce narrative. Hamas has been quick to frame those incidents as proof that Israel cannot keep its own commitments, and that framing now dominates Arabic and Western social channels alike (where an alternate reality unfolds that is more influential than the actual reality). Operationally, Israel holds about half the Strip. The big political issues (Hamas disarmament, future governance, and long-term security guarantees) have not been resolved. Mediation (by DC, Doha, Cairo) has shifted. It’s less about implementation than it is about damage control at this moment. Both parties are using the lull to reset positions, not to end the conflict. The deeper shift has to do with social media, because this is where wars are fought as well. Don’t mistake it for anything other than a battlefield. Israel no longer controls the flow of perception. Every strike is documented and posted online within minutes. Open-source investigators and AI tools are verifying claims faster than official channels can respond. The credibility cost is compounding. Once-trusted IDF statements are now routinely challenged by timestamped evidence and geolocation data…