US oil prices finished lower for the third time in four weeks as a ceasefire in Gaza threatened the war premium in the Mideast and as Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China....after falling 7.4% to $60.88 a barrel last week on fears of a global oil supply glut on expectations of a large OPEC output hike and on the restoration of Kurdish exports, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery rose in global trading on Sunday after OPEC and its allies agreed to a smaller than expected output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, signaling a cautious approach to production growth amid persistent concerns of oversupply, and was up 1.3% by Monday morning in Europe, after the modest OPEC+ boost in monthly production allayed fears of a more dramatic hike, then edged higher in a choppy morning session in New York as emerging signs of a growing oil glut kept gains in check, but settled 81 cents higher at $61.69 a barrel after the OPEC+ production increase was more modest than expected, tempering concerns about supply additions....oil prices continued to rise modestly on global commodity markets on Tuesday, as traders assessed the tug-of-war between demand prospects and supply challenges amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, but edged lower in morning trading in New York, after Saudi Aramco left prices for light barrels to Asia unchanged and cut prices for medium and heavy crude oil grades, which was read as yet another sign that OPEC's demand growth expectations were at odds with their publicly communicated bullish forecasts, and settled the session 4 cents higher at $61.73 a barrel as traders weighed the smaller-than-expected increase to OPEC+ output for November against signs of a potential supply glut...oil prices continued to climb in Asian trading Wednesday, supported by OPEC+'s cautious production stance, efforts to curb Russian crude flows, and expectations of potential US Fed rate cuts, while the American Petroleum Institute report showing that crude stocks at the key Cushing hub fell further eased fears of an imminent glut, then held those gains in morning trading in New York as traders brushed off oversupply fears, after digesting the decision earlier by OPEC+ to restrain production increases next month, and settled 82 cents higher at $62.55 a barrel after the weekly EIA report showed an increase in U.S. oil consumption and as traders figured a lack of progress on a Ukraine peace deal would keep sanctions in place against Russian oil....oil prices fell in early morning trade in Asia on Thursday after Israel and Hamas agreed to a pause in fighting and a hostages-for-prisoners exchange, reducing fears of a wider regional spillover or damage to energy infrastructure in adjacent territories, and continued lower in New York on hopes that the Gaza deal would ease tensions in the Middle East, decrease Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea, and increase the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran, and settled $1.04 or 1.6% lower at $61.51 a barrel after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement to cease fire in Gaza, with the bearish sentiment fueled by data showing crude inventories ballooning on the U.S. Gulf Coast last week...oil prices fell sharply around the globe on Friday, reaching their lowest levels in several months in several markets, as geopolitical risk premiums unwound following the breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, but were still holding above $60 in US trading until Trump threatened a "massive" ramp-up in tariffs on Chinese goods, reigniting fears of a trade war between the world's largest producer and the second-largest consumer of oil, sending oil tumbling to settle $2.61 or 4.24% lower at a five month low of $58.90 a barrel, as Trump’s threat to impose increased tariffs on China cast a shadow over the demand outlook in a market seen as oversupplied, and left oil prices 3.3% lower for the week...
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the first time in three weeks on a larger than expected increase of natural gas inventories and on forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks...after rising 3.7% to $3.324 per mmBTU last week on short covering and on a smaller than expected injection into natural gas storage, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for November delivery ticked higher early Monday as traders weighed tighter supply balances and strong export demand against seasonally light weather-driven consumption, then held those early gains into midday Monday trading, supported by near record Gulf Coast LNG exports and forecasts that added heating demand for later in the week, and settled 3.3 cents higher at $3.357 per mmBTU on near-record flows to LNG export plants, a small decline in output, and forecasts for more demand this week than had been expected....natural gas prices opened 1.1 cents higher on Tuesday and didn't look back, as bulls jumped in on news of added heading demand to recent forecasts and of falling production, and settled 14.1 cents higher at $3.498 per mmBTU on a drop in daily output and some technical short covering after speculative short positions on the NYMEX had reached a 10-month high last week...the November natural gas contract opened Wednesday down 4.1 cents and proceeded to arc lower through the morning amid near-term demand uncertainty, and settled 16.5 cents lower at $3.333 per mmBTU on a smaller than previously forecast drop in output, on ample supplies of gas in storage, and on profit taking after prices rose to an 11-week high in the prior session....natural gas prices opened 3.2 cents higher on Thursday, but was directed lower by a bearish-leaning storarge report, and settled down 6.4 cents at $3.269 pewr mmBTU as the EIA confirmed a storage injection on the higher end of expectations, but well below the five-year average for this time of year....natural gas futures traded lower through midday Friday, weighed down by mild demand forecasts and sharp declines in cash markets, and settled the session 16.3 cents lower at $3.106 per mmBTU on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mild weather that should keep heating and cooling demand low over the next two weeks, and thus finished 6.6% lower for the week...
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 3rd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 80 cubic feet to 3,641 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 23 billion cubic feet, or 0.6% more than the 3,618 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on October 3rd of last year, and 157 billion cubic feet, or 4.5% more than the five-year average of 3,484 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 3rd of October over the most recent five years….the 80 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was slightly higher than the 77 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, and also a bit higher than the 78 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, while it was somewhat less than the average 94 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late September - early October week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 3rd indicated that after a substantial increase in our oil imports and near record production from US wells, we again had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the nineteenth time in thirty-five weeks, and for the 36th time in sixty-five weeks, despite a decrease in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 570,000 barrels per day to average 6,403,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 662,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 161,000 barrels per day to 3,590,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to an import average of 2,813,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 3rd, an average of 731,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 266,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 124,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 13,629,000 barrels per day, the highest in 10 months. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,708,000 barrels per day during the October 3rd reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,298,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 3rd, an average of 130,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period, the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 571,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 3rd averaged a rounded 161,000 fewer barrels per day than what oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+161,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.…moreover, since 666,000 barrels per day of oil supply could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 505,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much. and hence pretty much useless....However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 571,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 531,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 41,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the string of nearly continuous weekly additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,106,000 barrels per day last week, which was 4.8% less than the 6,411,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 124,000 barrels per day higher at 13,505,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 121,000 barrels per day higher at 13,199,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 430,000 barrels per day...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.5% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 92.4% of their capacity while processing those 16,298,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 3rd, up from the 91.4% utilization rate of a week earlier, and higher than the normal post-pandemic utilization rate for this time of year…. the 16,298,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined that week were 4.5% more than the 15,590,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending October 4th of 2024, and were 4.1% more than the 15,656,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending October 4th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 85.7%, which was on the low side of the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year, likely due to catastrophic flooding in Southeast Texas in the wake of tropical storm Imelda of that year…
With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 409,000 barrels per day to 9,753,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 3rd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 363,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 4.7% less than the 10,229,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending October 4th of last year, and 3.1% less than the gasoline production of 10,066,000 barrels per day seen during the prepandemic week ending October 4th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 210,000 barrels per day to 5,169,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 25,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With this week’s relatively large production increase, our distillates output was 3.6% more than the 4,988,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 4th of 2024, and 6.9% more than the 4,835,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 4th, 2019....
Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 10th time in twelve weeks and for the 23rd time in thirty-two weeks, decreasing by 1,601,000 barrels to 219,093,000 barrels during the week ending October 3rd, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 4,125,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 401,000 barrels per day to 8,919,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 41,000 barrels per day to 627,000 barrels per day while our exports of gasoline fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 905,000 barrels per day… Even after twenty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-five weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.0% more than last October 4th’s gasoline inventories of 214,898,000 barrels, and were about 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with the increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 21st time in 40 weeks and by the most since June, decreasing by 2,018,000 barrels to 121,559,000 barrels during the week ending October 3rd, after our distillates supplies had increased by 578,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 729,000 barrels to a 25 week high of 4,346,000 barrels per day, even as our exports of distillates fell by 134,000 barrels per day to 1,244,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of distillates rose by 14,000 barrels per day to 132,000 barrels per day... With 50 withdrawals from inventories over the past 88 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.6% more than the 118,513,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 4th of 2024, while about 6% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the increase in our oil imports and near record domestic production, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, increasing by 3,715,000 barrels over the week, from 416,546,000 barrels on September 26th to 420,261,000 barrels on October 3rd, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 1,792,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still 4% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still about 27% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this October 3rd were 0.6% less than the 422,741,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on October 4th of 2024, and were 0.9% below the 424,239,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 4th of 2023, and were 4.3% less than the 439,082,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 30th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count was down by two over the week ending October 10th, the first decrease in six weeks, as rigs targeting oil decreased by four, while the number of rigs targeting natural gas was up by two, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 10th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 3rd) and this week’s (October 10th) count, the third column shows last week’s October 3rd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 11th of October, 2024…
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Will EOG Resources' (EOG) Utica Expansion Redefine Its Geographic Diversification Strategy?
- In recent weeks, EOG Resources completed its US$5.6 billion acquisition of Encino Energy, expanding its footprint in the Utica Shale and announcing the establishment of a new regional headquarters near Columbus, Ohio. This move adds over one million acres and hundreds of shale wells to EOG, while also creating 150 new jobs to support Utica asset development.
- The company's growth in the Utica region signals a shift toward broader geographic diversification and operational scale, as well as an increased focus on integrating new assets with existing operations.
- We'll explore how the Encino Energy acquisition enhances EOG's operational platform and affects its future growth outlook.
The recent US$5.6 billion Encino acquisition deepens EOG's presence in Utica Shale and scales up overall operations, but short-term performance catalysts, such as production and cash flow guidance, are only moderately affected as integration risks and rising operational costs become more prominent. The most important immediate risk, integration execution in a new regional basin, will require close monitoring, but at this stage the impact on the business outlook is material and should not be overlooked. Read the full narrative on EOG Resources (it's free!)EOG Resources is projected to reach $27.1 billion in revenue and $6.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook implies a 6.0% annual revenue growth and a $0.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $5.7 billion.
Infinity Sees Opportunity Despite Inventory Consolidation From EOG-Encino Merger – (interview and transcript) Infinity Natural Resources sees a bright future for itself in the Utica Shale. The geological formation recently experienced major consolidation with the mega-merger of EOG Resources Inc. and Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6 billion. Combined, the two have a tight grip on the Utica’s oil and gas production. Next door, the smaller but still mighty Infinity Natural Resources is undeterred by its new herculean neighbor, President and CEO Zack Arnold said at Hart Energy’s DUG Appalachia Conference and Expo in August. Despite the amount of leasehold that’s been taken off the map, Arnold sees benefits to the consolidation. For one, there’s less competition in the area.“I think we have an even stronger opportunity there now because there’s one less company that’s leasing in the area, so you’ll see us take that ground game,” Arnold said.And outside of the Utica’s oil window, the natural gas opportunities are abundant, he said.“We believed that deep, dry-gas Utica was going to emerge as a prolific resource that we’d be able to develop as time and technology unlocked it. We’ve been proven true over the last six or seven years.”Arnold believes the drilling environment in the Utica is only going to get better too, he said.“I think over time, the deep, dry-gas Utica will prove to be a less complicated drilling environment and a cheaper cost per foot,” he said.He dove deeper into Infinity’s strategies and drilling plans in the Utica in this exclusive interview with Executive Editor-at-Large Nissa Darbonne. This interview was edited for clarity.
Texas-based Fox Tank Company opens manufacturing facility in Coshocton - Coshocton Tribune - − A company that originally came to the area for an auction has opened the doors to a new manufacturing plant. In June, Fox Tank, a Texas-based company, announced it was leasing the former Crozier Welding site at 16867 Ohio 83. It hopes to complete a $7.9 million investment and create close to 80 new jobs by 2028. Fox Tank Company has other sites in Kerrville and Luling, Texas, where it produces steel storage tanks and pressurized separation vessels for the oil and gas industry, along with other related items. Fox Tank is now renovating and making additions to the local facility. A new sandblasting booth will be delivered Oct. 28 and a paint booth is being enlarged. There are 22 employees on-site. Chip Rogers, president of Fox Tank, said the additional employees may include many of the 90 individuals who once worked for Crozier Welding. “They're sort of lined up waiting to come back. They've taken jobs at others places, but sometimes those jobs are an hour and a half each way, or the money is the not the same or the work environment isn't the same," Rogers said. "We're growing slowly," he added.The facility will allow the company to create new products for the oil and gas industry, such as a pipeline cleaning device that is shot into the pipeline and then caught on the other end."We didn't have the quality of welders down in Texas to do this," Rogers said. "It's a different sort of product, but we can sell that product now down in Texas. We're going to start manufacturing up here and shipping it to Texas. And we'll continue making tanks in Texas we'll ship up here, but we're going to start making tanks they've never made before here."Rogers said they could also start branching out into storage vessels for other industries, such as tanks for food makers, steam accumulators for steam boilers and air receivers for air compressors.He said they were interested in locating a manufacturing site in the region because of its proximity to the growing Marcellus and Utica Shale drilling for oil and gas and existing customers. He said they originally came to an equipment auction at the location in March."We thought it was just going to be an auction visit, but we stayed," Rogers stated.He gave kudos to local officials who welcomed them with open arms. When Rogers went to Coshocton City Hall to check on any needed permits, he met Safety Service Director Max Crown, who took Rogers around town and made several introductions, including Tiffany Swigert, executive director of the Coshocton Port Authority.
Utica Shale Academy exceeds expectations — The Utica Shale Academy exceeded expectations on the latest results of the 2024-2025 Ohio State Report Card. The intent of the report card is to outline the progress made and where continued focus is needed. The state provides scores which include exceeding standards, meeting standards and not meeting standards, and the Salineville-based community school garnered high marks for progress, gap closing and graduation rate. “We exceeded expectations on the state report card in three areas,” said Superintendent Bill Watson. He noted that progress is always great, and students grew an average of two levels in reading and math based on the standards. The gap closing component evaluates how effectively schools are addressing achievement gaps among various student groups, focusing on performance expectations and annual goals. According to the state, USA earned 63.7 percent, which was above the state average of 33.8 percent. Meanwhile, the graduation rate yielded an 89.5-percent result, surpassing the state average of 44.3 percent. But Watson said he measures success beyond the report card. “The most important data that is not included–and that I care most about–is that we had 48 graduates last year, and 46 of them are employed in trades or going to a trade school,” he commented. “What’s important is that our students are successful after they leave here.” USA is a dropout recovery and retention facility that focuses career-tech education for at-risk pupils and has had nearly 200 students graduate and more than 1,100 certifications being earned since 2021. All students receive blended learning with an online education through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center’s Virtual Learning Academy in addition to their training in career-tech courses. Since beginning 11 years ago, it has expanded its student base from 50 to upwards of 170 students in addition to growing its campus with added facilities. It currently includes 148 students in grades 7-12, with the junior high pupils undergoing career exploration at the Williams Collaboration Center while freshmen through seniors gain hands-on learning in megatronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, AC/DC electric, Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC’s), diesel mechanics and horticulture at the Hutson Building and Energy Training Center, as well as the exterior welding lab with a new interior welding lab currently under construction.
Fracking waste in a landfill once again poses a pollution problem to the Mon - On a rainy morning, Mike Frederick showed off the Belle Vernon Municipal Authority’s sewage treatment plant, about 30 miles south of Pittsburgh. “This distribution box is where all the sewage comes in,” said Frederick, an operator at the plant, pointing at a concrete basin where murky liquid poured in through a pipe. The tanks next to the basin were roiling with wastewater being treated; the last of these was a UV chamber used for disinfection. “That’s what kills your bacteria, your fecal…whatever you want to call it,” said Frederick. He pointed to a pipe, discharging clear water into another basin. “And then it goes right out here, down into a pipe that goes into your outfall into the river.” The water, which Frederick called the “finished product,” was bound for the Monongahela River a few feet away. A few years ago, the water pouring out of that pipe wasn’t getting fully treated. Levels of bacteria and ammonia in the plant’s discharge to the river started going up.In 2018, the plant began flunking water quality tests for its Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection pollution discharge permit.“At one point in time, we were treating nothing, and we turned ourselves into the DEP,” Frederick said.What was happening was that microorganisms in the plant’s treatment tanks, which the authority uses to break down sewage, were dying. The treatment plant determined they were getting killed off by wastewater the plant was receiving from one particular client: the nearby Westmoreland Sanitary Landfill. Frederick said he could tell something was off about the landfill’s wastewater. It smelled like diesel fuel, he said, and was “black.” “The water texture was dark. You could see a big difference,” he said. “A lot of foam. It was a total mess. It was a wreck.” It turned out that the landfill had been receiving fracking waste – solids and liquid waste derived from drilling and hydraulically fracturing, or fracking, for gas in deep shale reserves – for several years. In 2018, it received 78,000 tons of solid fracking waste, nearly a quarter of its total tonnage for the year, according to DEP records compiled by the environmental groupFracTracker Alliance. The landfill’s wastewater, called leachate, was loaded with contaminants found in fracking waste. “It killed off every bug in this plant. UVs didn’t work,” Frederick said.Leachate is the liquid coming from the landfill, or “landfill tea,” as Gillian Graber calls it. Graber is executive director of the local environmental groupProtect PT.The rainwater picks up contaminants from whatever it comes into contact with in the landfill. “Anything that’s in the landfill, your dirty diapers, your waste from your home,” Graber said, all gets into a landfill’s leachate. And in the case of Westmoreland Sanitary Landfill, the leachate picked up contaminants from fracking waste, including drill cuttings – rocks and other materials excavated during drilling for natural gas in the deep Marcellus Shale found in parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. These cuttings are high in salts, metals, and radioactive materials, including radium, a naturally occurring radioactive element.A 2011 analysis by federal scientists found liquid waste from Marcellus shale gas wells had overall concentrations of radium roughly 40 times what the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission classifies as “hazardous” or “radioactive.” Despite these characteristics, Congress in 1980 exempted oil and gas waste from federal hazardous waste regulations pending a review. In 1988, the U.S. EPA determined that the regulations were not warranted. That’s why cuttings and other fracking solid waste are classified as residual waste (non-hazardous industrial waste) and can be sent to municipal landfills like Westmoreland.
32 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 29 – Oct 5 -- Marcellus Drilling News --For the week of September 29 to October 5, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica increased from the previous week. There were 32 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week, up five from 27 issued two weeks ago. Last week, Pennsylvania issued 27 drilling permits across six counties—the highest weekly total the state has recorded in months, possibly even over a year. Ohio issued five permits in two counties. West Virginia was skunked last week, issuing no new permits for the second consecutive week. What’s up with WV? ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SNYDER BROTHERS | SULLIVAN COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY
Special Briefing Oct. 16 on WV’s Gas-Fired Power Plant Opportunities -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In August, newly elected West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey announced a plan that includes the state growing its electric energy production from a current 16 gigawatts (GW) of generation to a massive 50 GW by 2050—what Morrisey calls the “50 by ’50” plan (see WV Gov. Morrisey Wants 50 GW of PowerGen in State by 2050). Natural gas will play a starring role in accomplishing that objective. At next week’s AI Energy Conference 2, being held in Pittsburgh on October 16, Bryce Custer, founder of Ohio River Corridor, LLC, will deliver a special presentation on the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and the rapidly evolving power generation landscape in West Virginia. He’ll discuss Morrisey’s vision to rapidly expand the state’s power generation and how it can be accomplished.
Natural gas power plants powering WV's future | Harrison County Editorials -The recent announcements of new natural-gas power plants in Clarksburg and Morgantown deserve attention not just from local officials but from business leaders and energy planners across the region. These facilities carry more than just kilowatts — they could help shape West Virginia’s economic future at a moment when U.S. power demand is being remade by data centers and AI.In Harrison County, the ESC Harrison County (aka Wolf Summit) gas-fired combined-cycle plant is in preconstruction near Clarksburg. It is expected to have a capacity of about 579 MW. That facility already carries clear economic promise: The project has been projected to create roughly 400 construction jobs and 30 permanent operations jobs, while generating an estimated $10 million annually in tax revenue for Harrison County. On previous versions of the plan, developers placed the capital cost near $615 million.
WV Severance Tax Collections Up 10.8% Thx to NatGas Price, Production - Marcellus Drilling News - According to West Virginia Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow, the state’s severance tax collections are rebounding, with $82.2 million collected so far this fiscal year, representing a 10.8% increase over the same period last year. The rise reflects higher natural gas prices—up about 50% from last year. Production is up too—a 5.5% increase—which helps. Coal production is up, though prices, especially for metallurgical coal, have declined. September collections alone were $51.7 million, exceeding estimates by $16.3 million.
FERC finds MVP Southgate expansion may be redundant, no significant environmental impact | Underground Construction — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has released its long-awaited Environmental Assessment (EA) for Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s proposed Southgate Amendment Project, concluding that while the project would not cause significant environmental harm, it may be unnecessary given competing infrastructure already in development. The 107-page analysis, issued Oct. 3, assesses Mountain Valley’s plan to build a 31-mile, 30-inch natural gas pipeline from Pittsylvania County, Va., to Rockingham County, N.C., increasing capacity from 375,000 dekatherms per day to 550,000 Dth/d. FERC staff said the project’s approval “would not constitute a major federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment” but noted an alternative system—the Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SSE)—could provide similar service with fewer environmental impacts. The report highlights that the Lambert compressor station and roughly 44 miles of previously authorized pipeline have been removed from the revised route, reducing land disturbance by more than half compared with the original 2020 certification. Construction would begin in late 2026 with an in-service target of mid-2028. While the EA concludes that Mountain Valley’s environmental safeguards and mitigation plans are adequate, FERC staff questioned the economic and operational necessity of the expansion. The analysis finds that Williams’ SSE line could “supply the same downstream customers served by Southgate while avoiding duplicative right-of-way disturbance,” effectively rendering the new build redundant if the SSE proceeds.
SC Landowners Receive Notice of Survey Work for Elba Express Pipe - Marcellus Drilling News - In April, MDN told you about a new greenfield expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Elba Express pipeline into South Carolina to serve growing demand for natural gas in the state (see KM Pipes Update: Expand Elba to SC; SSE4 Survey Work Done). The $431 million Elba Express Bridge project is designed to provide 325 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of firm transportation capacity to a new gas-fired power plant in Colleton County, SC (see SC PSC Approves Gas-Fired Power Plant Proposed for Edisto River). Letters have been sent to 185 landowners in South Carolina along the proposed route, requesting permission to survey their land for the project.
Senate panel sets vote on pipeline safety bill - The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee will vote this week on bipartisan legislation to reauthorize the nation’s pipeline safety regulator. The panel will consider the yet-to-be-released bill, the “PIPELINE Safety Act of 2025,” from Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and ranking member Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).The legislation is the first effort from the committee to reauthorize the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s safety programs since 2020.“Pipelines are the safest and most effective way to transport massive quantities of American oil and natural gas,” Cruz said in May. “As we look to craft legislation reauthorizing PHMSA, we need to ensure unnecessary regulations are not impeding America’s energy dominance.”
Crackdown on pipeline protests could get vote at markup -A Republican effort to crack down on protests and disruptions around pipeline projects could get a vote in a Senate committee Wednesday, sparking alarm among environmentalists. A draft amendment by Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) would greatly expand the definition of criminal pipeline sabotage, which is currently defined as “willfully damaging or destroying” a facility. Such acts are punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Sheehy’s measure, a copy of which was shared with POLITICO’s E&E News, would extend criminality — and 20 years in prison — to any action that is willfully “damaging, destroying, vandalizing, tampering with, disrupting the construction or operation of, or preventing the operation or construction of” pipelines. The amendment could get a vote at a markup of a bipartisan pipeline safety bill Wednesday. Sheehy’s office did not respond to a request for comment asking whether he planned to offer it. Earlier this year, Sheehy introduced a bill, S. 1017, that mirrors the language of the new amendment.
FERC Cuts Pipeline Challenge Rule; Result is Faster Construction -- Marcellus Drilling News -- One of the environmental left’s favorite tactics to defeat fossil fuel projects is to challenge every single infrastructure project (pipeline or otherwise) connected to fossil energy at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). As soon as a company files an application to build a new project, and FERC approves it, Big Green will challenge it, first at FERC, and eventually via the courts. FERC has an internal rule, called Order No. 871, that states a company cannot begin construction (even though FERC has approved the certificate) until all such legal challenges are resolved, which can take YEARS. Which is the point—delay, and eventually, some of the projects will give up and won’t build. Run out the clock. Two days ago, FERC issued a new rule eliminating Order No. 871 rule, meaning construction can now begin months and years sooner, even while appeals continue. The enviro-left just lost one of its most potent weapons.
Rhode Island Communities Vote Against NatGas Hookup Moratorium - Marcellus Drilling News - The chickens are now coming home to roost in Communist Rhode Island. In 2021, the state voted to phase out the use of all fossil energy by everyone in the state by 2050–the so-called Act on Climate. Now that the state’s Energy Facility Siting Board is attempting to take the first baby steps to comply by blocking new gas hookups on Aquidneck Island, communities on the island are voting to resist the hookup ban, claiming other communities “up the pipeline” are not being asked to sacrifice their new hookups. It’s all devolving into a major food fight.
Energy Cos. Spending $50B Next 5 Years on New NatGas Pipelines - Marcellus Drilling News - Energy companies are set to invest nearly $50?billion over the next five years in building or expanding 8,800 miles of U.S. natural gas pipelines to meet soaring domestic consumption, record LNG exports, and growing data center demand, greatly aided by regulatory changes under President Trump. Surging gas production, particularly in the Permian Basin as a byproduct of crude oil output, has outpaced pipeline and processing capacity, resulting in occasional negative Waha prices and production slowdowns. Major operators, such as Kinder Morgan and Enbridge, face record backlogs but continue to expand, especially in Texas and the Gulf Coast, with future gas growth tied to sustained oil prices.
Commonwealth LNG Asks FERC for Extra 4 Years to Build - Marcellus Drilling News - Commonwealth LNG is developing a 9.5 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal project located near Cameron, Louisiana. In September, Commonwealth announced it had signed a deal with EQT Corporation to provide 1.0 MTPA of LNG for EQT to resell (see EQT Signs Third Deal to *Buy* LNG – This One Commonwealth LNG). Commonwealth, in its press release, stated that with the EQT deal, it now has sufficient commitments (5.0 out of 9.5 MTPA) to proceed with a final investment decision (FID), which it plans to make by the end of this year. However, Commonwealth just asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for more time to build.
Commonwealth LNG Pushes Louisiana Project Completion to 2031 -Commonwealth LNG, a project proposed for Louisiana and originally supposed to be up and running by 2027, will take until 2031 to complete, the company behind it has warned in a request for an extension to its deadline. The company blamed the temporary ban on new liquefied natural gas capacity that the Biden administration imposed on the industry in its final year, following a report by an environmentalist that claimed LNG is more harmful than coal for the atmosphere. The Trump administration canceled the ban this year, but that was not soon enough for Commonwealth LNG, the company said in its letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “These delays were beyond the control of Commonwealth and unavoidably affected Commonwealth’s ability to advance the Project on the schedule contemplated when its application was filed,” the company said, as quoted by Reuters. The Commonwealth LNG facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, will have an annual capacity of 9.5 million tons of liquefied gas. The construction of the first phase will cost $11 billion, according to Commonwealth LNG and generate annual export revenues of some $3.5 billion. However, the company has yet to make the final investment decision on the project, it said in September, after it secured its export license from the Department of Energy. Also in September, Commonwealth LNG secured a long-term supply deal with EQT for 1 million tons of LNG from its future Louisiana plant, bringing the total volume committed to future deliveries to 5 million tons, under deals with Japan’s JERA, Malaysian Petronas, and Glencore, in addition to EQT. This leaves 4.5 million tons yet to be contracted to secure the viability of the project, unless project developer Kimmeridge sticks to its commitment to offtake 2 million tons of LNG per year from the facility.
BP Arbitration Win Raises Stakes in Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass Disputes An international business tribunal has sided with BP plc in its arbitration with Venture Global Inc. over contracted cargoes from Calcasieu Pass LNG. At A Glance:
Court renders decision in second Calcasieu Pass case
BP seeks more than $1 billion in damages
Other pending arbitration cases loom Lower 48 LNG Exports Near 2025 Highs as Record Volumes Sail to Europe — LNG Recap --While the specter of natural gas price volatility this winter is increasing with weather forecasts and supply risks in Europe, a surge of U.S. LNG on the water is helping to temper the market.Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. At A Glance:
U.S. LNG exports rise to 2.43 Mt/week
EU storage levels trend below average
U.S. arbitrage favors Europe through 2026
Port Arthur LNG Gains New 2.5 Bcf/d Feed Gas Artery -Private midstream operator Arm Energy Holdings LLC said Thursday it would move ahead with a $2.3 billion pipeline project to move more natural gas to the Texas coast to meet growing demand. Stacked area chart showing North America’s operational and sanctioned LNG facility peak export capacity from 2016 through 2033, measured in billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The chart illustrates steady growth from around 0 Bcf/d in 2016 to nearly 40 Bcf/d projected by 2033. Major U.S., Mexican, and Canadian LNG export projects are labeled, including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Freeport, Calcasieu Pass, Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Port Arthur, Rio Grande, and LNG Canada. Data compiled by NGI from the U.S. Department of Energy and EIA. At A Glance:
System would move gas from Tres Palacios
Completion set by 2029
Open season scheduled for excess capacity
How Does Expanding U.S. LNG Capacity Impact Natural Gas Storage? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Several storage expansions are underway in the Lower 48, particularly along the Gulf Coast. A greenfield project also has recently received federal approval. But financing has been a struggle for some projects, preventing them from being sanctioned and ultimately, brought into the market in a timely manner.Click here to tune into the latest episode of Hub & Flow in which NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, hosts Caliche Development Partners CEO Dave Marchese to discuss the optimism and opportunities for natural gas storage development. Gonzales and Marchese discuss the challenges and successes Caliche has found in expanding its assets in Texas and California, as well as the outlook for future storage developments to accommodate rising natural gas demand.
Record Waha Gas Price Crash as Outbound Flows Constrained | RBN Energy -The gas market was rattled by unprecedented events this weekend. Waha cash prices slumped to the lowest levels ever seen this weekend. Outright Waha cash prices averaged negative $5.30/MMBtu during the week ended October 6 according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), down $3.66/MMBtu week-on-week. Prices in the basin were below zero all week and at record lows on Friday after the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) outage began (see below). The average Waha cash price on Friday specifically was minus $8.79/MMBtu, which is more than $2/MMBtu below any daily average cash price previously recorded. Cash trading for delivery over the weekend remained extremely low at minus $7.78/MMBtu. Henry Hub cash prices remained steady above $3/MMBtu in early October, so Waha basis has plummeted to below minus $10/MMBtu for Friday-through-Monday as can be seen in the chart above. Major maintenance work on PHP began on October 3 and is scheduled to run through October 16 to perform turbine exchanges at the Praha and Junction compressor stations. Capacity on the pipeline has been reduced by about 1 Bcf/d during the maintenance work. Production, outflows and prices all dropped dramatically on Friday when the work began. The region was already dealing with capacity constraints because of ongoing work on El Paso pipeline and other pipes in the area, which have driven Waha cash prices below zero in recent weeks. The restrictions on PHP have amplified the issues in the basin to an extreme degree. Prices are expected to remain negative until these restrictions are lifted.
Henry Hub Prices Poised to Climb as Winter Nears and LNG Activity Mounts, EIA Says -Natural gas prices at benchmark Henry Hub are likely to advance into the winter and next year amid heating demand and a coming jump in LNG activity, according to the latest federal estimates. Line chart showing U.S. natural gas prices from 2021 through projected 2026, comparing Henry Hub bidweek prices with residential prices. The chart highlights seasonal peaks in residential prices exceeding $20/MMBtu, while Henry Hub remains below $10/MMBtu. Forward projections show modest increases through 2026, based on NGI data and the EIA’s October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook. At A Glance:
EIA sees Henry Hub at $4.10 in January
Agency expects $3.90 average for 2026
Researchers see high production, storage
US natural gas prices rise 1% on strong LNG export demand — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a small decline in output and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.3 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $3.357 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which fell to a record low of minus $7.07 per mmBtu on Thursday, remained in negative territory for a ninth day in a row and an 18th time so far this year due to ongoing pipeline constraints from maintenance work. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean had an 80% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The NHC also projected a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico off central Mexico had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.1 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 21. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than the amount of fuel power generators need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.4 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. That LNG export feedgas increase came as flows to Venture Global LNG's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana hit a record 3.6 bcfd on Sunday. LNG plants pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power operations. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
US Natgas Jumps 4% to 11-Week High On Daily Output Drop, Short Covering (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to an 11-week high on Tuesday on a drop in daily output and some technical short covering. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.1 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $3.498 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 18. Futures prices were also supported because some short sellers needed to cover positions in recent days, analysts said, noting speculative short positions on the NYMEX reached a 10-month high last week. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a 10th day in a row as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin. That was the 19th time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.41 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday as it marches northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands and then north toward Bermuda over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary four-month low of 104.4 bcfd on Tuesday. That compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to slide to a preliminary two-week low of 15.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline in flows to Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana to around 3.9 bcfd, down from an average of 4.6 bcfd over the prior seven days, according to LSEG data.
U.S. natural gas prices drop 5% on smaller daily output decline, ample gas in storage - (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Wednesday on a smaller than previously forecast drop in output and ample supplies of gas in storage, prompting some traders to take profits after prices rose to an 11-week high in the prior session. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16.5 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $3.333 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 18. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas turned positive on Tuesday for the first time in 11 days. Analysts said in a note that Waha prices likely turned positive as some producers decided to shut wells and wait for pipeline maintenance to end rather than continue paying others to take their gas. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Friday after it passes the northern Caribbean Islands and then turns northeast toward Bermuda and the open Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The NHC also projected a disorganized trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico off Mexico's east coast had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. Neither tropical system was expected to hit the U.S. mainland over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary 13-week low of 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday. Wednesday's projected daily output was higher than forecast on Tuesday and compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 23. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
US Natgas Prices Fall after EIA Report --US natural gas futures fell to around $3.22/MMBtu, retreating from an 11-week high of $3.5 on October 7 after a larger-than-expected storage build. The US Energy Information Administration reported an 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) injection into storage for the week ended October 3, above the 77-bcf forecast and slightly higher than last year’s 78 bcf, though below the five-year average of 94 bcf. Meanwhile, output in the Lower 48 states eased to 106.3 bcfd so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September. Still, record production earlier this year allowed firms to inject more gas than usual, leaving storage about 5% above normal for this time of year. LNG exports averaged 16.1 bcfd in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast mostly near-normal weather through October 24.
US natgas prices drop 5% to 2-week low on milder weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Friday to a two-week low, on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mild weather that should keep heating and cooling demand low over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16.3 cents, or 5.0%, to settle at $3.106 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 26. For the week, the contract fell about 7%. Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies for the winter, with the premium of futures for March over April 2026 (NGH26-J26) on track to fall to a record low of around 10 cents per mmBtu. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006. Traders use the March-April and October-November (NGV26-X26) spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter-heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 25. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 16.1 bcfd so far in October from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary eight-week high of 16.5 bcfd even though Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland remained shut for planned maintenance. Analysts noted LNG feedgas was near record highs as new units entered service at Venture Global LNG's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas. In other LNG news, BP BP. won its arbitration case against Venture Global over the U.S. supplier's failure to deliver LNG under a long-term contract that was due to start in late 2022.
EIA Oct. STEO Cuts NatGas Spot Price by $0.40 to $3.90 for 2026 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again, as it has for months. The agency expects the HH spot price to average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 below the prediction from three months ago). EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, quite radically, lowering it by $0.40 to $3.90/MMBtu. Hence, our suspicion that sometimes the data crunchers haul out the breakroom dartboard to help with forecasts.
Louisiana AG calls for DOJ to end oil spill lawsuits - Louisiana’s Republican attorney general is urging the Justice Department to dismiss all litigation it has filed against insurers for oil spill cleanup costs. Elizabeth Murrill wrote in a recent letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi that the lawsuits pose a threat to the “epicenter” of the oil and gas industry. The lawsuits were filed under the Oil Pollution Act, which assigns liability for oil spills and establishes a cleanup fund known as the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund. “The actions of the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in filing lawsuits during the waning days of the Biden Administration against insurance underwriters is precisely the type of action DOJ should immediately dismiss,” Murrill wrote. Murrill pointed specifically to a 2024 case, where the U.S. Coast Guard, the Interior Department and NOAA sued to recover more than $128 million in removal costs and interest for the continued cleanup of a collapsed offshore oil platform owned by Taylor Energy.
EIA Raises U.S. Oil Output Forecast, Warns Oversupply Could Crush Prices -- The United States is on track to break yet another oil production record this year, but the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says the resulting supply glut could drag prices lower in the months ahead.In its October outlook, the EIA raised its forecast for U.S. crude production to13.53 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, up from a forecast of 13.44 million bpd previously. That’s well above last year’s record 13.23 million bpd and reflects stronger-than-expected output in July, along with faster ramp-ups from new offshore Gulf of Mexico projects. The Gulf region alone is now expected to average 1.89 million bpd this year, a 50,000-barrel increase from prior forecasts as several developments came online earlier than anticipated.The EIA said that while record production will keep global markets well supplied, it also risks tipping the balance toward surplus. “We expect global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months,” the agency warned in its report. It expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average about $65 per barrel this year—roughly 15% below 2024 levels—while Brent is projected to average $68.64.The new forecast shows U.S. crude output reached 13.2 million bpd in 2024, led by growth in the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico. But the EIA has noted that growth has slowed compared with the million-barrel annual surges seen during the peak shale years, suggesting U.S. producers are nearing the top of their capacity gains.The agency also assumes that only part of OPEC+’s planned production hikes will materialize due to limited spare capacity among members. Even so, inventories are expected to rise by an average of 2.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025—enough to keep supply comfortably ahead of demand and pressure prices further.If those barrels flood the market too quickly, the next big oil problem may not be scarcity—it’ll be surplus.
Oil industry layoffs widen as crude prices sink --Oil and gas companies are cutting costs and firing thousands of employees as analysts and government forecasters warn that crude prices could shrink to their lowest levels since Covid-19 shutdowns caused oil demand to crater five years ago. BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have all outlined large-scale layoffs planned this year. And Bloomberg reported last week that Exxon Mobil, the nation’s biggest oil and gas company, plans to ax 2,000 jobs from its global workforce as part of an efficiency push.Analysts say oil companies of all sizes are tightening their belts ahead of 2026, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts prices could average about $52 for a barrel of global benchmark Brent crude. A recent Wood Mackenzie survey of 32 oil companies found they usually need Brent prices to be around $60 a barrel to break even and continue paying dividends to shareholders. Brent oil spot prices have fallen this year from a monthly average of $79.27 a barrel in January to $67.99 a barrel in September, according to EIA. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading for about $65.
West Texas doesn’t get all the fuss about an oil crash - — Warnings of doom and gloom have been hovering over the U.S. oil and gas industry for months, but don’t tell that to people in the Permian Basin.Traffic near the New Mexico-Texas state line backs up with fracking crews and water haulers making their way to remote drilling sites. Trailer parks are filled with oil field workers near the towns of Pecos and Kermit. Drivers hum in and out of gas stations, grabbing snacks and energy drinks. The Permian Basin — the most productive onshore oil region in North America — has been a linchpin for the Trump administration’s plans for “energy dominance.” While the basin is churning out near-record amounts of oil this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has warned that domestic production may dip by as much as 100,000 barrels a day next year amid lower oil prices. Some executives suggested that U.S. oil production may have already peaked, while companies such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips have announced job cuts.“I would say that the death of the Permian oil field has been declared many times in the past, and it hasn’t happened yet,” said Sara Harris, executive director of the Midland Development Corp., a nonprofit that provides local economic development incentives.That optimism in the face of bleak oil price projections and economic concerns helps President Donald Trump retain support in West Texas. According to POLITICO’s election results tally, Trump won 94 percent of the vote in Glasscock County, located just east of Midland, and had more than 80 percent support in 12 of the 17 counties in the Permian Basin Workforce Board Development area. His support is weaker in Texas overall, with the Texas Politics Project showing the president’s job approval rating down from 52 percent in February to 43 percent in August.Much of West Texas’ support could be chalked up to Trump’s support of the oil and gas industry and regional politics, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Harris said more than half of jobs in Midland are directly or indirectly tied to the oil and gas industry — a proportion that grows higher in more rural parts of the Permian like Fort Stockton, Pecos and Monahans.“Everyone has to pick a team, and the Republicans generally are going to be more favorable towards the oil industry than the Democrats,” Rottinghaus said. “I think that’s probably the biggest factor.” Trump made a high-profile visit to West Texas in July 2020, saying he would defend the oil industry’s jobs. In a recent statement to POLITICO’s E&E News, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said record high oil production in the U.S. and in Texas has been spurred by the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce bureaucracy in the oil field. “President Trump is providing producers with the resources they need to unleash innovation, reduce breakeven costs, and lead in global energy markets to provide affordable and reliable energy,” Rogers wrote. “President Trump is making the U.S. the powerhouse of oil and gas production once again, and we will continue to ‘DRILL, BABY, DRILL.'”Overall employment, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, grew by 2.5 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter in the Midland-Odessa region, compared to job growth of 1.1 percent in the U.S. and 1.6 percent across Texas. Average hourly earnings in the region jumped by 9.9 percent over the same period to an average of $37.23, while home sales volume climbed 9.9 percent in June 2025 compared to June 2024.But on paper, it doesn’t seem like the oil and gas industry is growing in the Permian.The number of drilling rigs active in the Permian region was down to 251 as of Oct. 3, a decrease of 53 rigs from a year prior, according to Baker Hughes. But oil production in Texas is up from about 5.7 million barrels a day in July 2024 to about 5.8 million barrels in July 2025, according to EIA.EIA forecast that U.S. oil production could stay around a record 13.6 million barrels a day in December. But that could start slipping as Brent oil prices are expected to drop to around $50 a barrel by early 2026, the agency said in its short-term energy outlook. Domestic production could ultimately rise in 2027 or 2028 thanks largely to increases in production in the Permian, according to a longer-term outlook from EIA that uses multiple oil-price scenarios.More than half of oil and gas executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed in the third quarter said their business outlooks have worsened compared to one year ago. About half of the respondents to the Dallas Fed reported decreases in their levels of business activity compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Dallas Fed Survey Flags Theft in the Oil Field | Rigzone --Forty-one percent of executives said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in a third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey page posted on its website recently. The remaining 59 percent said they have not been impacted, the Dallas Fed stated on its site. Survey participants were asked, “in the past year, have your operations been impacted by theft in the oil field”, the Dallas Fed highlighted, noting that executives from 80 exploration and production firms answered this question during the survey collection period. This spanned from September 10 to September 18, the site pointed out. Exploration and production executives who said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year were then asked, “what items have been stolen over the past year”, the site highlighted. The most selected response was ‘crude oil’, with 61 percent of respondents, according to the site, which revealed that ‘piping valves and wiring’ was the second most selected response, with 58 percent of respondents, and ‘equipment’ was the third most selected response, with 39 percent of respondents. Executives from 33 exploration and production firms answered this question during the survey collection period, the Dallas Fed revealed. E&P executives who said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year were also asked, “how would you rate the impact of this theft on your firm’s operations”, the site revealed. Well above 70 percent of respondents said “low”, with around 15 percent responding “medium”, and under 10 percent responding “high”, the site pointed out. No respondents checked the “no impact” response, according to the site. Executives from 33 exploration and production firms also answered this question during the survey collection period, the Dallas Fed revealed. A statement posted on the Office of the Texas Governor’s website back in June announced that Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed oilfield theft protection and pro-growth legislation into law. “Governor Greg Abbott … signed into law key legislation to protect Texas’ oil and gas industry and promote economic growth across West Texas, including Senate Bill 494, Senate Bill 529, Senate Bill 1806, House Bill 48, and the Beacon Budget Appropriation, during a bill signing ceremony at the Permian Basin Petroleum Museum,” the statement noted. Senate Bill 494 “establishes a petroleum product theft task force”, Senate Bill 529 “alters the tax code for the City of Midland to divert certain collected tax revenue for economic development projects”, Senate Bill 1806 “provides the Texas Department of Public Safety with additional tools to combat oil and gas theft”, and House Bill 48 “creates an organized oilfield theft prevention unit within DPS to protect oilfield assets, support the energy industry, safeguard economic stability, and enhance public safety”, the statement highlighted. “We are bringing the full weight of the law to crack down on oil theft in the Permian Basin to protect the critical role energy development plays in fueling our economy,” Abbott added. The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed stated in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey page on its site, adding that the Eleventh District encompasses Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico.
Over 40 Trump administration appointees have direct ties to oil, gas, coal sectors: Report US President Donald Trump appointed dozens of officials with ties to the fossil fuel industry to his administration, including more than 40 from oil, gas, or coal companies, according to a recent report. An Oct. 6 Public Citizen and the Revolving Door Project report examined the backgrounds of nominees and appointees to the White House and eight key agencies overseeing energy, environment, and climate policy. The agencies include the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as the Interior and Energy departments, Britain’s The Guardian reported on Wednesday. The report identified 111 "fossil fuel insiders and renewable energy opponents," including 43 who worked directly for coal, oil, or gas companies, such as Energy Secretary Chris Wright, former CEO of the fracking company Liberty Energy. It also named lesser-known officials, including a former fracking executive now heading the Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, who reportedly told staff to avoid terms like "climate change" and "emissions." A senior White House policy adviser also previously held senior positions at major oil companies, including Shell. Trump has repeatedly called climate change a "hoax," and since taking office has moved to remove official climate change data from government websites, worked to eliminate any mention of it in government documents, and sought to zero out any public funding for research into the climate crisis. Researchers found 12 officials linked to fossil fuel-funded right-wing think tanks, such as the Texas Public Policy Foundation and Americans for Prosperity, an anti-environmental group founded by Charles and David Koch, the brothers who founded Koch Industries, the second-largest privately held company in the US. (David Koch died in 2019.) Another 29 were former executives from polluting industries tied to fossil fuels, including chemicals, automaking, and mining, while others had links to utility companies or politicians promoting pro-coal, oil, and gas policies. The Interior Department emerged as the most compromised agency, with 32 employees linked to polluting energy. It includes Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, a former North Dakota governor with longstanding oil industry ties who leases land to Continental Resources, led by major Trump donor Harold Hamm. On his first day in office, using the slogan "Drill baby drill," Trump announced plans to boost domestic fossil fuel production and withdraw from the Paris Agreement, later rolling back and canceling funding for renewable energy incentives – even projects nearing completion – and expanding drilling and mining on federal lands.
California says offshore oil drilling company cut corners in restart | Courthouse News Service — California accused an offshore oil drilling company of repeatedly discharging waste into inland waters near Santa Barbara without a permit in its rush to bring its drilling operations back online. In a complaint filed Friday night in Santa Barbara County Superior Court on behalf of the Central Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board, state Attorney General Rob Bonta accuses Sable Offshore Corp. of purposely not applying for permits to discharge waste — mostly dirt and vegetation into waterways, discharge that “could affect water quality in the rich aquatic and riparian habitat of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.” “By avoiding the imposition of waste discharge requirements and associated regulatory oversight of its activities until after the work was completed, Sable placed profits over environmental protection in its rush to get oil on the market,” Bonta says in the complaint. A spokesperson for Sable did not respond to an email requesting comment on the lawsuit. The lawsuit is just the latest emanating from the controversial resumption of oil drilling operations off the coast of Santa Barbara. Known as the Santa Ynez Unit, the project comprises three platforms — Hondo, Harmony and Heritage — as well as an onshore processing facility at Las Flores Canyon. In 2015, a section of one of the pipelines connecting the facilities, which had become corroded, failed, bursting open and sending 142,800 gallons of crude into the Pacific Ocean. The massive spill killed hundreds of birds and marine mammals and led to criminal charges being filed against Plains All American Pipeline, which owned the pipeline at the time. Plains was forced to pay a stiff fine and sold the pipeline to ExxonMobil in 2022, which then sold it to Sable in 2024. Sable finally resumed drilling operations in May, but not before suing the California Coastal Commission, which had attempted to block the restart. An environmental group has sued the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, challenging the agency’s renewal of offshore drilling leases. And last month, Santa Barbara’s district attorney filed criminal charges against Sable Offshore Corp. for environmental violations, including five felony counts that the company “knowingly discharging dredged or fill material into waters of the United States.” Bonta, in the lawsuit seeking civil penalties, takes aim at the same alleged violations. Under the terms of a federal consent decree, Sable had to retrofit two pipelines running from a pumping station on the beach to another station 40 miles inland by installing safety check valves and make repairs to 144 anomalies. To do so, it had to perform a “pig and dig” operation, which involved excavating certain sections of the line, which meant clearing roads and vegetation. Some of these repair sites were within stream beds and channels designated as “Waters of the State” and “Waters of the United States.” Because of that, Sable had to get permits for the excavation. Sable, Bonta says in the complaint, “knew waste discharge requirements were necessary for excavation activity that could affect water quality but chose to ignore Sable’s obligation to obtain them” at 14 different sites.
‘North to the Future’ as Alaska Readies LNG Exports and Bids to Power Digital Frontier -- Alaska has been known for years as an oil and natural gas powerhouse. Now, as an LNG project nears sanctioning and global data center demand explodes, the governor wants the world to view the state as more than a resource state. At A Glance:
LNG exports planned alongside in-state supply
State’s climate cuts cooling costs
Fiber links to boost global connectivity
LNG Canada Starting Up Second Train with Unit’s First Cargo Expected Soon -- LNG Canada on Tuesday began the process of bringing its second liquefaction train online as it works toward ramping up to full capacity.
Other North American LNG Netbacks chart. At A Glance:
Startup activities began Tuesday
Vessel scheduled to arrive Friday
Output to hit full capacity in 2026
Amigo LNG Targets Year-end FID, First Exports from Mexico’s Guaymas Port in 2028 - The partnership behind the proposed Amigo LNG terminal told U.S. regulators the floating export facility is targeted to begin shipping U.S. gas volumes from the Mexican coast within the next three years.
Map showing the proposed Amigo LNG export facility near Guaymas, Mexico, highlighting NGI’s Mexico gas price index locations, major import and export points, and operational and proposed natural gas pipelines. The map connects the Amigo LNG terminal to regional pipeline systems and major hubs such as the Waha Hub in Texas. At A Glance:
Amigo could begin exports in October 2028
Timeline aligns with Waha price increases
70% of Train 1 capacity under contract
High Costs, Low Prices Threaten to Stall Argentina’s Shale Ambitions -- Argentina’s prized shale basin Vaca Muerta, once hailed as the key to transforming the country into a global energy exporter, is now facing a period of stagnation and uncertainty. Lower oil prices, rising costs, and policy constraints have slowed drilling and fracking, raising questions about whether the formation can deliver the government’s ambitious export goals.According to Reuters, drilling and fracking activity in Vaca Muerta — the world’s fourth-largest unconventional oil reserve — has begun to plateau, with the number of wells in the Neuquén Basin falling for three straight months. Benchmark oil prices around $65 per barrel, down from $90 in April 2024, have eroded margins, while production costs in the basin are 35–40% higher than in the U.S. Permian. Analysts blame inflation, expensive financing, and soaring labor and service costs.Vaca Muerta remains critical to President Javier Milei’s economic strategy, contributing 64% of Argentina’s oil output but with only 8% of the basin developed. Slower growth threatens Milei’s pledge to double energy exports to $30 billion by 2030. Major producers including Chevron, Tecpetrol, and TotalEnergies have urged the government to lift foreign currency controls and ensure export stability, while ExxonMobil is reportedly scaling back operations.Despite headwinds, state oil company YPF is pushing ahead with an aggressive expansion plan. CEO Horacio Marín confirmed the company aims to operate 19 drilling rigs by 2026, nearly doubling production wells to 4,000 and supporting the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline, which will link the basin to an export terminal on Argentina’s Atlantic coast.Yet the scale of investment needed remains staggering. A new study by the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG), cited by BNamericas, estimates that between 2025 and 2040, Argentina will require over 100,000 kilometers of new pipelines and dozens of new gas and oil processing plants to sustain growth. Access to financing and capital-market liberalization, the IAPG warns, will be “critical” for meeting medium and high-growth scenarios.For now, the shale giant’s future hinges on whether Argentina can reduce costs, attract foreign capital, and build the infrastructure needed to turn geological promise into lasting prosperity.
Global LNG Fuel Demand for Ships to Double by 2030 -Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel is projected to at least double by 2030 as abundant global supply and tougher emission norms accelerate fleet conversions. Singapore led LNG bunkering volumes in Q3 2025, followed by China and the Netherlands. According to Rystad Energy, global LNG bunkering may exceed 4 million tonnes by end-2025 and double by 2030. Ship certifier DNV estimates the number of LNG-ready vessels will rise from 781 today to over 1,400 by 2030...
Natural Gas: Prices in Europe Move Higher --Natural gas prices in Europe reported their biggest daily gain since mid-June amid supply risks and favourable weather forecasts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia left the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia unchanged, while trimming it for buyers in the US and Europe ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI continued their upward rally in the early trading session today amid persistent risks to Russian oil supplies and a moderate output hike by OPEC+. Meanwhile, the Brent prompt timespread strengthened slightly and traded in a backwardation of $0.42/bbl this morning, compared to $0.37/bbl at the end of last week. The Saudis released their latest official selling prices (OSPs) for November loadings. It shows that the premium for their flagship Arab Light crude into Asia was left unchanged at US$2.20/bbl over the benchmark. The decision comes after OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137k b/d in November, and it also contrasts with the average market expectations of an increase of US$0.30/bbl. OSPs for all grades into the US and Europe were reduced by US$0.50/bbl and US$1.20/bbl, respectively, reflecting expectations of slower demand. European natural gas prices ended higher with TTF futures rising by 5.3% to settle above EUR33/MWh yesterday. Prices remain supported amid persistent risks to supplies, along with expectations of colder weather conditions driving up demand. Recent reports suggest that Russia has intensified air strikes across Ukraine, further damaging gas infrastructure. Meanwhile, recent weather forecasts suggest colder-than-normal temperatures in the coming months, which might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. Meanwhile, EU storage is now almost 83% full, down from 94.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 90.4%.
Colder Weather Could Test European Natural Gas Supplies This Winter — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market-- Russian strikes against energy infrastructure in recent days have eliminated over half of Ukraine’s natural gas production, which could tighten the European market heading into winter. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. Bloomberg cited anonymous sources in reporting the country could need to buy more than $2 billion of natural gas imports to replace production assets destroyed by the attacks. Ukraine has also reportedly made pleas to European powers for equipment to repair its energy system.
Europe’s Gas Storage Push Lifts U.S. LNG Exports to 6-Month High — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 2.36 Mt: U.S. LNG exports have risen to the highest point in six months as European buyers move to fill storage. NGI’s European Union Gas Storage data show stocks are 82.9% full as of Monday (Oct. 6), below the 90% requirement ahead of the heating season. Export volumes reached 2.36 million tons (Mt) the week of Sept. 29, according to Kpler data. Almost 67% of all U.S. gas exported during the week headed to Europe. Exports are expected to continue to rise through the month, possibly reaching an annual high of 2.55 Mt by the week of Oct. 13, according to Kpler predictive data.
- 2.5 Bcf/d: Golden Pass Pipeline LLC is seeking permission to place the final compressor station (CS) for its 2.5 Bcf/d natural gas system in-service by Nov. 3, aligning with the commissioning timeline for Train 1 at the Golden Pass export terminal. In a request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the firm disclosed that its MP 69 CS in Louisiana had reached mechanical completion. Golden Pass previously told regulators it could begin importing LNG to commission Train 1 as soon as Oct. 1.
- 25%: Sea-LNG Ltd., a coalition of energy producers, ports and equipment manufacturers, estimated coalition members have significantly reduced emissions of liquefied fuel. In a new report, Sea-LNG members estimated well-to-water emissions of LNG cargoes have been reduced 25% in the past six years. Methane emissions from LNG-fueled vessels also decreased by 50% during the same period as engine manufacturers improved technology, researchers wrote in the report. The number of ships using LNG as fuel has increased to 1,406 this year from 159 in 2019.
Europeans Think They Can Regulate Our O&G, LNG Standards - Marcellus Drilling News - The Europeans have tried to regulate the U.S. oil and gas industry for more than a year (see Europeans Presume to Impose Their Regulations on American Gas). You probably know what we think of that. They’re are doing it again. The European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D) imposes strict climate and labor compliance requirements on nearly 17,000 global companies, including about 3,000 large U.S. firms, extending to their suppliers and subcontractors worldwide. American energy companies, particularly LNG exporters, face potential annual compliance costs of up to $2.7 million and fines of 5% of their global revenue for noncompliance, with the possibility of private lawsuits.
Türkiye wants to increase gas imports from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan --Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, has confirmed the country’s intention to buy gas from Russia. In his interview with CNN TÜRK, he explained that ensuring the energy security of citizens is a priority for the government. “We must buy gas from anywhere we can,” he said. With winter approaching, Bayraktar emphasized the need to source gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and elsewhere. “We are striving to increase production of Black Sea gas,” he noted, adding that natural gas production in the Black Sea will quadruple by 2028, reaching 15-16 billion cubic meters annually. Bayraktar reminded that electricity consumers exceeding 5,000 kWh annually have been removed from the support group and said that a similar arrangement is being planned for natural gas. He stated that natural gas consumption will be evaluated on a monthly and city-based average. Turkey’s minister emphasized the country’s strategy to ensure supply security through diversification and recalled Türkiye’s prediction in 2016 about a global LNG surplus. “Back then, our daily gasification capacity was 30 million cubic meters. Today, we’ve increased this to 161 million cubic meters – a five-fold increase.” Referring to president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meeting with U.S. president Donald Trump at the White House, Bayraktar said it was held in a sincere and constructive atmosphere, adding: “The meeting was very productive.” He noted that all issues between the two countries were discussed during the meeting. According to Bayraktar, Türkiye signed agreements to purchase a total of 143 billion cubic meters of U.S. LNG, worth $43bn. “They’re saying we buy gas for $600. Divide $43 billion by 143. What do you get? “Those claiming $600 should do the math and explain it to the public. It’s completely false – based on hearsay and incomplete information.”
Qatar LNG Shipments Resume Despite Warnings of Continued Middle East GPS Interference - QatarEnergy has been authorized to continue shipments of LNG through the Persian Gulf after the country’s transportation ministry reacted to reported issues with vessel guidance systems. Map showing major maritime chokepoints around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. It highlights key crude oil transport routes such as the East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia and the SUMED pipeline connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At A Glance:
Concentrated GPS issues reported across region
Qatari transportation officials resumed traffic Monday
Supply risks build as benchmarks rally
Anchor failure cited in Singapore’s worst oil spill in a decade – Investigators found that the anchors on Netherlands-flagged dredging boat Vox Maxima could not be deployed, partially causing it to strike another vessel, which resulted in the worst oil spill here in a decade. Other causes identified in the investigation report included a lack of proper handover processes and the absence of a task-recording system. On June 14, 2024, Vox Maxima lost engine and steering control and hit Singapore-flagged bunker vessel Marine Honour, which was berthed at Pasir Panjang Terminal. This caused 400 tonnes of oil to leak into the sea, staining the beaches at East Coast Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, Keppel Bay, the Southern Islands and Sentosa. Clean-up operations, jointly organised by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), National Parks Board, National Environment Agency and Sentosa Development Corporation, took over two months to complete. Investigations were completed on Aug 15 and TSIB’s report was published on Aug 21. Investigations showed that on the morning of June 14, 2024, the crew of Vox Maxima opened the circuit breakers on the right of the vessel to conduct an equipment inspection. Article continues after this advertisement But they failed to restore the electric current in both circuit breakers when Vox Maxima prepared to depart the Western Working Anchorage near Sentosa for the ST Marine Shipyard in Tuas at 1.58pm. The crew at the time included two local harbour pilots from service provider PSA Marine. Harbour pilots help to navigate vessels safely into and out of ports. The dredger left the anchorage at a speed of 13.9kmh at around 2.08pm. As it entered the West Keppel Fairway near Pasir Panjang Terminal, it gradually increased its speed to 17.6kmh. One of the two harbour pilots on Vox Maxima saw that Super Hero was 1.9km ahead, and tried to radio its harbour pilot to inform him that Vox Maxima was approaching, but did not receive any response. At around 2.09pm, the harbour pilot on Vox Maxima reported to the Pasir Panjang control centre that he planned to keep Super Hero on the right when passing it. There was still no response from Super Hero. At 18 seconds past 2.12pm, the Vox Maxima crew started a hydraulic power unit to speed up the emptying of seawater to ensure safe passage towards the shipyard. But this immediately caused a blackout on Vox Maxima. Super Hero was estimated to pass to the right of Vox Maxima in about 2 minutes 24 seconds. The crew on Vox Maxima then realised they had lost steering control of the vessel. It was moving at 19.8kmh at 57 seconds past 2.12pm, while steering towards the right. Its harbour pilot reported to the control centre at 2.13pm that the vessel had encountered an engine failure, and radio broadcasts were made to all nearby vessels. Shortly after, he advised the crew to lower the left-side anchor, but it remained stuck even after a crew member struck the brake and anchor chain with a big hammer. At 19 seconds past 2.14pm, the harbour pilot instructed the crew to release the right-side anchor. As electrical power was unavailable, the hydraulic pump could not be operated to free the anchor. Both anchors could not be deployed, said the report. At 51 seconds after 2.14pm, the harbour pilot requested the crew to reverse the engines so that the vessel could slow down or stop. But this failed as control of the engines had been lost. At that time, Super Hero altered its course to move closer to its left, while Vox Maxima continued turning to its right. At 15 seconds past 2.15pm, Super Hero passed the front of Vox Maxima, narrowly missing it by about 65m. Meanwhile, the dredger, now moving at 15.4kmh, was about 220m from Marine Honour. The harbour pilot on Vox Maxima then called PSA Marine for urgent tug services to navigate the vessel. Electrical power was eventually restored on Vox Maxima at 18 seconds past 2.15pm. The crew then set the engines to move backwards. Vox Maxima then radioed another harbour pilot on a nearby harbour tugboat, PSA Phoenix CS09, to help push the dredger away from Marine Honour, but received no response. At five seconds past 2.16pm, Vox Maxima hit Marine Honour, rupturing one of the oil tanks on the bunker vessel.
Exxon Considers Return to Iraq -Exxon is considering a return to Iraq after leaving the country two years ago, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed source who said Exxon was interested in developing the massive Majnoon field. The Majnoon field has estimated reserves of 38 billion barrels, which makes it one of the biggest in the world. According to the companies currently involved in work in the field, additional seismic surveys could uncover more reserves at the field. Exxon confirmed the information in general, telling Bloomberg in a statement that “Exxon Mobil is in discussions with the Iraqi Oil Ministry as we routinely look at opportunities to optimize our advantaged portfolio.” Per the report, a deal could be sealed within days and involve, besides field development, construction of export infrastructure and “potential oil marketing projects”. Reports that the U.S. supermajors were willing to return to OPEC’s number-two producer emerged earlier this year, with officials from the Iraqi oil ministry saying the companies were in talks with the government on the details of that return. “ExxonMobil has conveyed its willingness to return to Iraq,” one undersecretary from the oil ministry said in July. “The Company is currently in a stage of negotiations with Iraq for a new opportunity in the country’s oilfields. These moves are a positive indication of growing interest in Iraq’s oil industry by the US and other companies,” Bassim Khudair said at the time. The U.S. supermajors’ potential return follows the return—or expansion—of European Big Oil, including BP and TotalEnergies. A more recent report, from Bloomberg again, said Exxon was in negotiations with Iraqi SOMO for the construction of crude oil storage facilities closer to demand hubs in Asia, the U.S., and Europe. The Iraqi oil marketing company has been looking for opportunities to set up overseas storage capacity for years.
Opec+ further raises oil production with modest hike from November - Opec+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), it said on Sunday, opting for the same fairly modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut. The group comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5 per cent of global demand. The shift in policy after years of cuts is designed to regain market share from rivals such as US shale producers. Brent prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday as most analysts predict a supply glut in the fourth quarter and in 2026 due to slower demand and rising U.S. supply. Prices are trading below this year’s peaks of $82 per barrel but above $60 per barrel seen in May. In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the Opec+ group, had different views, sources have said. Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine, two sources said this week. Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure - 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively, because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly, sources said ahead of the meeting. Opec views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on Sunday. Opec+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group. The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts - 2.2 million bpd - by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd. The eight producers will meet again on November 2.
Oil prices climb as OPEC+ approves 137,000 bpd output hike - Oil prices rose on Sunday after OPEC and its allies agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, signalling a cautious approach to production growth amid persistent concerns of oversupply. Brent crude climbed by nearly 1.5 percent to $65.30 per barrel, a 1.19 percent increase, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $61.60, a 1.18 percent increase as markets reacted to the smaller-than-expected hike. The output adjustment mirrors that of October and comes after the group dismissed rumours of a more aggressive 500,000 bpd increase. So far this year, OPEC+ has raised its collective target by over 2.7 million bpd, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of global demand, as the alliance seeks to reclaim market share from non-OPEC producers without triggering a sharp price decline. According to Oilprice, leading up to the meeting suggested friction between Russia and Saudi Arabia, with Moscow said to favour a modest hike due to sanctions-related constraints and fears of weakening prices, while Riyadh pushed for a bolder increase. OPEC attributed its measured decision to a “steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” citing low global oil inventories as evidence of balance. The alliance will reconvene on November 2 to reassess production levels and may revise its strategy depending on demand trends and inventory data.
Oil prices jump after OPEC+ announces modest monthly output hike | Euronews -- Oil prices rose on Monday morning in Europe after the OPEC+ group agreed to only a modest boost in monthly production, allaying fears of a more dramatic hike. After meeting on Sunday, the alliance said that it would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same total it announced for October. WTI crude oil rose 1.31% to $61.68 a barrel at around 8.15 CEST, while Brent jumped 1.22% to $65.32 a barrel. Prices are, however, still down on the week after news of potential increases to OPEC+’s production. In the last five days, WTI has slipped 2.79%, while Brent is down 3.90%. Oil prices traded near a four-month low on Friday. The movements come after a surge in oil prices earlier this year, when barrels were trading at over $80, linked to tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US. The conflict raised concerns that Iran could block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. OPEC+ has been steadily raising output this year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024 that were originally due to be phased out by September 2026. In a statement on Sunday, the OPEC+ group noted that the decision to boost production was made “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories”. Even so, a number of analysts — including from the International Energy Agency — remain concerned that supplies are set to surpass demand, partly due to strong output from the Americas. OPEC+ is composed of 12 member countries plus 10 non-members, with key players including Saudi Arabia and Russia. The next meeting is scheduled for 2 November.
Oil Prices Rise on Smaller Than Expected OPEC+ Output Hike -- Oil prices edged higher in a choppy morning session Monday, Oct. 6, after OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected production quota increase for November. Emerging signs of a growing oil glut kept gains in check. NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery rose $0.60 to $61.48 bbl, and ICE Brent for December delivery gained $0.66 to $65.19 bbl. Among oil products, November RBOB gasoline futures gained $0.0189 to $1.8794 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures inched up $0.0078 to $2.2441 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.585 points to 98.000 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil futures plunged around 8% last week on rumors that OPEC+ was considering picking up the pace of production hikes. The 137,000-bpd monthly increase agreed upon at a meeting Sunday, Oct. 5, was identical to the hike for October, lending support to oil futures given these volumes representing the lower bound of the already priced in hike. The prospect of additional barrels hitting a market already looking to be oversupplied, however small the increase may be, did little to alleviate concerns about an increasingly lop-sided supply-demand balance. Bloomberg on Monday reported that volumes of oil at sea in transit jumped to a nine-year high 1.2 billion bbl last month, citing tanker tracker data from Vortexa. Including oil in floating storage, total volumes on water were still the highest since 2020, when a pandemic induced demand plunge led to rapidly swelling storage on- and off-shore. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's newest short-term energy outlook is scheduled for Tuesday release. In last month's edition, EIA raised the forecasted OECD inventory growth rate to 6% in 2025-2026 and adjusted the 2024-2025 growth rate from 5% to 6.1%, expecting global inventory builds to average more than 2 million bpd from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. The estimate, however, did not take into account OPEC+'s 137,000 bpd output hike plan for October.
Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 1% on Monday after the OPEC+ production increase planned for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains. Brent crude futures settled 94 cents, or 1.46%, higher at $65.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.69, up 81 cents, or 1.33%. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. "The market feel that the actual amount of oil that is going to hit the market is far less than what they announced, given that some of the OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity," On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and some smaller producers, said it would raise production from November by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October's figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut. In the run-up to the meeting, sources said although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even four times that to quickly regain market share. The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading. Saudi Arabia kept unchanged the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia. While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week. In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East will help to cap prices. The Kirishi oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, halted its most productive crude unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery expected to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday. Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market's upside. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week. before a series of deals with Europe and the U.S. eased the supply crunch. "If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained. Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely," .
Oil Edges Lower as Traders Parse Oversupply Signals – (DTN) -- Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, Oct. 7, giving up some gains made in the previous session. The pullback followed OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected output hike for November and reports of damages to Russian oil infrastructure amid continued Ukrainian attacks. In morning trade, NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery slid $0.27 to $61.42 bbl, and ICE Brent for December delivery fell $0.26 to $65.21 bbl. November RBOB gasoline futures retreated $0.0155 to $1.8861 gallon. ULSD futures bucked the trend, rising $0.0116 to $2.2559 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.398 points to 98.270 against a basket of foreign currencies. On Monday, Oct. 6, Saudi Aramco issued official selling prices for November, leaving prices for light barrels to Asia unchanged and cutting prices for medium and heavy crude oil grades. This came the day following OPEC+ raising production quotas for November by a modest 137,000 bpd, against expectations of a larger increase, and was read as yet another sign that OPEC's demand growth expectations were at odds with their publicly communicated bullish forecasts. Russia, meanwhile, is facing a growing fuel shortage after Ukrainian strikes target key oil infrastructure, including refinery units, storage tanks and pumping stations. After an attack over the weekend, one of Russia's largest refineries, located in Kirishi, halted operations on a 160,000-bpd crude distillation unit. Ukrainian strikes have damaged a significant portion of oil infrastructure for Russia to institute a partial diesel export ban last week. Additionally, Russian midstream companies warned buyers last month to expect less deliveries. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to publish its newest short-term energy outlook today. In last month's report, EIA forecasted global inventory builds to average more than 2 million bpd from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. Following OPEC+ continuing to raise production quotas past the originally aimed-for 2.2 million bpd, achieved in September, market observers will be on the lookout for adjustments to supply growth estimates and inventory forecasts. The International Energy Agency's as well as OPEC's oil market reports for October are scheduled for release next week. Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced this morning that its monthly report on U.S. international trade in goods and services for August will not be published today as the federal government shutdown entered its seventh day.
Traders Weigh the Smaller Than Expected OPEC+ Output Increase - The crude market remained in its sideways trading range on Tuesday, as it continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range for the third consecutive session. The market ended lower as traders weighed the smaller than expected OPEC+ output increase in November against a possible oversupply. JP Morgan said that global oil inventories increased every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month. Meanwhile, China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid pace as part of its campaign to increase stocks. The crude market traded to a high of $62.04 in overnight trading before it sold off sharply to a low of $60.72 by mid-morning. However, the market quickly bounced off its low and traded in a 60 cent trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 4 cents at $61.73 and the December Brent contract settled down 2 cents at $65.45. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.1 cents at $2.2653 and the RB market settling down 77 points at $1.8939. The Energy Information Administration said U.S. oil production is expected to reach a larger record this year than previously expected, even as the agency warned that an oversupply of oil will weigh on prices in the months ahead. It expects U.S. oil production to average 13.53 million bpd this year, up from its prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd. Oil output averaged 13.23 bpd last year, which was the prior record. The anticipated increase in U.S. output defies growing concerns that the oil market is oversupplied, with the EIA noting that it expects crude oil inventories to increase throughout next year and put significant downward pressure on prices in the months ahead. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are expected to average around $65/barrel this year, a 15% decline from last year. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around $68.64/barrel, down nearly 15% from last year.U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Tuesday about progress toward a Gaza deal and said a U.S. team just left to take part in the negotiations.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas after November. He also stated that OPEC+ countries did not discuss increasing quotas more than 137,000 bpd in November.Chevron said Monday it continues producing fuel at its El Segundo refinery despite a fire shutting its main jet producing unit at the refinery back on October 2nd. Chevron said it was working to restart some of the processing units that were shut down due to a fire.The EIA reported that the U.S. is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. It said that for the week ending September 26th, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year. The EIA said this year, weekly inventories have consistently remained above the five-year average since late May, adding that the Gulf Coast, where most U.S. petrochemical consumption and propane export capacity are located, accounts for about 70% of U.S. propane storage capacity.
Oil prices to decline as global oversupply builds through 2026: US EIA | S&P Global --Oil prices are set to decline as global supply growth outpaces demand, with Brent crude forecast to fall from an average of $69/b in 2025 to an average of $52/b in 2026, the US Energy Information Administration said Oct. 7. Global oil stocks are expected to build by an average 2.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain elevated throughout 2026, putting downward pressure on prices, the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook. Global liquid fuels consumption growth of 1.1 million b/d annually, driven primarily by non-OECD countries in Asia, will not be sufficient to absorb the supply growth, the EIA said. China's strategic inventory builds have provided some price support this year, but uncertainty remains over whether Beijing will maintain this pace, according to the outlook. The negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could also affect supply, and further sanctions could be put on buyers of Russia's oil, the EIA said in its outlook. "Geopolitical developments, including Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil ports, have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted," the EIA said. The EIA said in a statement that it expects oil production growth to be led by countries outside of OPEC+. Production in South America has been the leading source of growth as new offshore vessels have started up ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana this year, the outlook said. OPEC+ crude production is forecast to increase by 500,000 b/d in 2025 and 600,000 b/d in 2026, the EIA said. "Although OPEC+ has announced a significant rebound in its oil production targets, EIA expects OPEC+ production will remain below announced targets, preventing inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and limiting the decrease in oil prices," the statement said. The EIA completed its modeling for the outlook before OPEC+ announced Oct. 5 that it would increase production targets for November 2025. US crude production hit a record high of 13.6 million b/d in July, and it is expected to hold nearly steady in the coming year, the agency said. "EIA continues to expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, but it revised its forecasts upward for average 2025 and 2026 US crude oil production to 13.5 million b/d in both years," the EIA said in the statement. US retail gasoline prices are forecast to drop from $3.10/gal in 2025 to $2.90/gal in 2026, the EIA said. However, planned closures at Phillips 66's Wilmington and Valero's Benicia facilities will limit refinery capacity, the outlook said. An Oct. 2 fire at Chevron's El Segundo refinery, which accounts for 17% of California's refinery capacity, was announced after the October STEO forecast was completed and adds uncertainty to the forecast, the EIA statement said. Low product inventories are expected to support strong refinery margins that incentivize the remaining refineries to run at higher rates, the EIA said. "As a result, we forecast refinery utilization will average 91.4% in 2026, up from 91.1% in 2025 and the highest annual average utilization since 2022." While the EIA forecasts US crude production to be relatively steady in the coming year, US oil and gas producers have expressed pessimism about maintaining production levels. In particular, respondents to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' latest quarterly energy survey raised concerns about trade uncertainty and downward price pressures. "The uncertainty from the administration's policies has put a damper on all investment in the oil patch," one survey respondent said. "Those who can are running for the exits."
Oil settles flat on Opec+ output hike, supply glut fears - Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected increase to Opec+ output in November against signs of a potential supply glut. Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to US$65.45 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 4 cents, or 0.06%, to US$61.73. Both contracts settled more than 1% up in the previous session after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers, together known as Opec+, decided to increase collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in November. The move was in contrast to market expectations for a more aggressive increase, a sign that the group remains cautious in light of predictions for a global supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year, said ING analysts. Market sentiment remains subdued, in particular after Saudi Arabia opted to keep the official selling price of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged, defying analyst expectations for an increase, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Tuesday. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has set the November official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at US$70.22 a barrel, it said on Tuesday, up from October's OSP of $70.10. On the demand side, India's fuel demand rose 7% year-on-year in September, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the country's Oil Ministry. On the supply side, US oil production is expected to hit a larger record of 13.53 million bpd this year, up from a prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. Global oil inventories are also expected to rise through next year as non-Opec+ countries lead oil output growth, according to the EIA, putting significant downward pressure on commodity prices in the months ahead. JPMorgan said global oil inventories, including crude stored on water, have risen every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month. In the US, crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ended October 3, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels, while distillate inventories dropped by 1.82 million barrels, the sources said. China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost stockpiles, according to public data, traders and industry experts. Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply. Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit after a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.
Oil rises on OPEC+ production decision and efforts to curb Russian crude flows -Oil prices climbed Wednesday as OPEC+ upheld a cautious production stance, efforts to curb Russian crude flows and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts also lent support, while US data signaling weaker demand capped further gains. Brent crude was trading at $65.88 per barrel at 10.06 a.m. local time (0706 GMT), up 0.5% from the previous close of $65.55. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 0.5% to $62.03 from $61.74 in the prior session. Prices continued to gain support from the cautious production policy adopted by members of the OPEC+ group during their Oct. 5 online meeting. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman confirmed plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, in line with expectations. The decision was seen as a measured step to maintain market stability while gradually reclaiming market share. It also helped ease lingering oversupply concerns, lending additional support to prices. Analysts said ongoing efforts to curb Russian oil flows prompted some investors to take positions on expectations of higher prices, further underpinning the market. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in the US labor market reinforced dovish expectations for the Fed, helping to sustain risk appetite in global markets. Analysts said last week's private-sector employment figures strengthened the case for potential rate cuts, but noted that the lack of upcoming inflation data could add uncertainty to the Fed's policy trajectory. Lower rates are expected to boost growth and lift demand in oil-reliant sectors, supporting prices, analysts said. However, on the demand side, data pointing to rising US crude inventories signaled a potential slowdown. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US commercial crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels last week compared to the previous week, indicating weak demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
WTI Holds Gains After US Crude Production Hits Record High - Oil prices are higher this morning as investors brushed off oversupply fears, having digested a decision earlier by OPEC+ to restrain production increases next month. “The disconnect continues between paper pricing and the predicted glut in global balances,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics.“We are back to an oil trading world where flat price is firmly in the $65 to $70 world.”Additionally, prices shrugged off the crude build reported by API overnight. API
- Crude +2.8mm
- Cushing -1.2mm
- Gasoline -1.2mm
- Distillates -1.8mm
DOE
- Crude +3.715mm
- Cushing -763k
- Gasoline -1.6mm
- Distillates -2.018mm - biggest draw since June
The official data confirmed API's sizable crude build (second week in a row) but products and stocks at Cushing saw inventory drawdowns... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. With the addition of 285k barrels to the SPR, total crude stocks rose by the most in a month. US crude production rose once again, back to record highs, despite the trend lower in rig counts... WTI prices held gains after the official data.Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bearish outlook on oil, saying the global market faces an average daily surplus of about 2 million barrels from this quarter through next year. That will drag prices lower, with Brent expected to average $56 a barrel in 2026, analysts including Yulia Grigsby said in a note."The market is in price limbo, with one side bent towards a possible supply glut and the other believing the ramp-up will not be as fast as anticipated," Price gains are however capped as fears of Russian supply disruption eased, with crude oil shipments holding close to a 16-month high over the past four weeks, the ANZ analysts said.
Oil prices rise on worries about Russian output, higher US oil demand -- Oil prices rose more than 1% to a one-week high on Wednesday as traders expected a lack of progress on a Ukraine peace deal to keep sanctions in place against Moscow and a weekly report showed an increase in U.S. oil consumption. Brent crude futures rose 80 cents, or 1.22%, to close at $66.25 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 82 cents, or 1.33%, to settle at $62.55. In Russia, a top Russian diplomat said the impetus to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, which emerged after a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in August, had proven to be largely exhausted. Analysts have said a peace deal would likely allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets. Russia was the second-biggest crude producer in the world after the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. energy data. Despite sanctions, Russia has been gradually raising its oil production and was close last month to meeting its OPEC+ output quota, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. Moscow’s energy sector has been under serious strain in the past two months due to a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil and gas infrastructure, mainly targeting oil refineries. Another factor supporting crude futures was investor belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep cutting interest rates amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Investors have been without most U.S. economic data as the federal government remains shut. But, the Fed will release minutes from its September meeting at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, which will be scoured for any new clues on Fed policy. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Central banks, like the Fed, use interest rates to control inflation. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Oil markets held gains as traders focused more on a U.S. report showing an increase in oil consumption last week than the bigger-than-expected increase in crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 3.7 million barrels of crude into inventories during the week ended October 3. , That was more than the 1.9-million-barrel build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and the 2.8-million-barrel build market sources said the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group cited in its figures on Tuesday. EIA, however, did say that total weekly petroleum products supplied, a proxy for U.S. oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022. “The demand numbers are pretty strong and that should keep the market supported,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Oil markets were up about 3% so far this week after OPEC+ on Sunday announced a smaller-than-expected output increase for November. “The bare minimum that OPEC+ decided to get away with on Sunday still provided some support,” PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga said in a note on Wednesday. OPEC+ agreed to raise its output targets for November by 137,000 barrels per day on growing concerns about a looming glut in the oil market, sources from the group told .
Oil prices fall on Gaza cease-fire deal despite new US sanctions on Iran -- Oil prices fell Friday after Israel and Hamas reached the first phase of a US-brokered cease-fire in Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices in recent months, despite new sanctions by Washington targeting Iran's oil network. Brent crude was trading at $64.66 per barrel at 09.42 a.m. local time (0642 GMT), down 0.5% from the previous close of $64.99. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 0.5% to $60.82 from $61.16 in the prior session. The cease-fire, confirmed late Thursday, includes Israeli troop withdrawals, the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas said that it has received guarantees from the mediators and the US that the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip has "fully ended." In a pre-recorded speech, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya announced a ceasefire agreement with Israel. "We have received guarantees from our brothers the mediators and the US administration, all confirming that the war has ended completely," al-Hayya said. Analysts said the truce reduced fears of supply disruptions. "This presents a major step toward ending the two-year war that raised the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note. "This saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts," Hynes added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, tempered recent price gains by confirming a planned production increase for November. Eight member countries agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, easing supply concerns and adding downward pressure on prices. The group's next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2. Losses were capped, however, after the US imposed sanctions on more than 90 individuals, entities and vessels accused of facilitating Iran's petroleum and petrochemical exports through the UAE, India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Treasury Department announced that it has designated more than 50 individuals involved in facilitating billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports. Targets included networks based in the five Asian hubs, nearly two dozen "shadow fleet" vessels, a China-based crude oil terminal, and an independent refinery, "key to Iran's ability to export petroleum and petroleum products." The State Department separately sanctioned approximately 40 additional individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran’s energy trade, including top buyers of Iranian petrochemicals and operators of a shadow fleet of tankers.
The Crude Market Reacts to the Israel and Hamas Ceasefire Agreement - The crude market ended the session lower after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement. The market was pressured in overnight trading following the announcement that Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire deal on Wednesday, under which Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captures in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. The deal could ease tensions in the Middle East, with the possibility of a decrease in Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea and increase the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran. The oil market retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $60.40 to a high of $62.92 as it traded to $61.78. However, the market bounced off that level and retraced all of its overnight losses and posted a high of $62.87. The market later once again traded lower and extended its losses to $1.16 as it posted a low of $61.39 in afternoon trading after Israel and Hamas signed the ceasefire agreement. The crude market retraced nearly 62% of its recent rally previously mentioned and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract ended the session down $1.04 at $61.51 and sold off further to a low of $61.25 in the post settlement period. The December Brent contract ended the session down $1.03 at $65.22. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.1 cents at $2.2803 and the RB market settling down 2.69 cents at $1.8826. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Officials on both sides confirmed they had signed the deal following indirect talks in Egypt. Under the deal, the biggest step yet towards peace, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire would take effect once the agreement is ratified by his government, which would convene after a security cabinet meeting on Thursday. An Israeli government spokeswoman, confirming the deal had been signed, said the ceasefire would go into force within 24 hours of the cabinet meeting. After that 24-hour period, the hostages held in Gaza will be freed within 72 hours. An Israeli official said all 20 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza after being seized by Hamas in its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, would be released. Egyptian state-affiliated TV al-Qahera news reported the agreement on the first stage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza went into effect on Thursday morning. The next phase of President Trump’s plan calls for an international body led by Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration. Arab countries which back the plan say it must lead to eventual independence for a Palestinian state, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated will never happen. President Donald Trump said that the Gaza hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday and that he hopes to attend a signing ceremony in Egypt. He said he believed it will lead to “lasting peace.” On Thursday, President Trump also said his administration would work with Iran and would like to see them be able to rebuild their country, adding that Tehran acknowledged that they are in favor of the Israel, Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal.
Oil settles 1.6% lower after Gaza ceasefire -- Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement to cease fire in Gaza. Brent crude futures closed down US$1.03, or 1.6%, at US$65.22 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down US$1.04, or 1.7%, at US$61.51. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of US President Donald Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the ceasefire deal, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. "Crude futures are in a corrective phase as the Israel/Hamas conflict looks to be ending," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. "The peace agreement is a major breakthrough in recent Middle Eastern history – its implications for oil markets could be wide-ranging, from the possibility of a decrease in the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran..." Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies in Opec+ agreed on Sunday to a November output hike that was smaller than market expectations, easing oversupply concerns. Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as a sign that sanctions against Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, would continue for some time. Democratic and Republican bills to fund the US government and end a shutdown have not secured the votes needed for passage in the Senate. A prolonged shutdown could dampen the economy and hurt oil demand. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he spoke to US President Donald Trump on Thursday, adding they "reviewed good progress achieved in trade negotiations" and agreed to stay in close touch over the coming weeks. Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on most exports from India, among the highest for any US trading partner. The tariffs were doubled on Indian goods from 25% over New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil. The US also imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and terminal, that helped Iran's oil and petrochemicals trade, the administration of President Donald Trump said on Thursday.
WTI Falls to $61 on Israel-Hamas Deal; USGC Supply Build (DTN) -- Oil futures tumbled almost 2% Thursday, Oct. 9, reversing gains from last week. The decline came after Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire and hostage return deal, easing some of the geopolitical risk that had provided support to crude markets. The bearish sentiment was also fueled by data showing crude inventories ballooning on the U.S. Gulf Coast last week. This potentially creates a regional supply glut, even as refiners aggressively process crude at high run rates. NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery settled down $1.04, or 1.7%, to $61.51 bbl. Just a day ago, WTI hit a one-week at $62.92, rebounding from last week's four-month low of $60.40 pressured by worries of oversupply. ICE Brent for December delivery slumped $1.08 to $65.17 bbl. On Wednesday, Oct. 8, Brent scaled a one-week peak of $65.54, rebounding from the four-month trough of $64 seen a week ago. The drop in oil futures weighed across the NYMEX petroleum complex. November RBOB gasoline futures fell by $0.0300 to $1.8795 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures lost $0.0145 to trade at $2.2768 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.540 points to 99.18, reaching its highest since late July against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil prices began Thursday steadily as the market initially took the developments in Gaza in its stride. But as the day progressed, heavy selling set in. Weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, showed U.S. commercial crude stocks rising by 3.7 million barrels to 420.3 million bbl during the week ended Oct. 3. Crucially, the surge was heavily concentrated in the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where stocks have jumped more than 10 million bbl in just two weeks, including a 6.2 million bbl jump last week alone. The rapid build is highly unusual as Gulf Coast inventories typically draw down over the summer months and into fall as refiners try to meet fuel demand.
After the Gaza agreement, oil prices have fallen slightly as the risk premium has diminished. The oil prices fell slightly on Friday, after falling 1.6% in the previous session. This was due to the fact that the risk premium in the market had decreased after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to implement the first phase of the plan to end Gaza's war. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents to $65.15 per barrel at 0338 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 2 cents, to $61.49. Israel and Hamas, a militant Palestinian group, signed a ceasefire on Thursday as part of the first phase in President Donald Trump's initiative for ending the Gaza war. The deal was ratified by Israel's government on Friday. It will see the end of the fighting, Israel withdrawing from Gaza in part, and Hamas releasing all hostages that it has captured since the initial attack which sparked the war in exchange for hundreds Israeli prisoners. Both benchmarks rose around 1% on a weekly scale after a steep drop last week. The stalled progress in a Ukraine deal is a sign of possible sanctions against Russia. Russia is the second largest oil exporter in the world. Daniel Hynes said that the Gaza ceasefire agreement was a significant step in ending the war of two years, which has increased the risk of oil disruptions. Hynes stated that "this (deal) saw the emphasis move back to an impending oil surplus as OPEC continues with the unwinding production cuts." A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. BMI analysts wrote in a Friday note that "markets' expectations of a sharp increase in crude supply did not manifest themselves in significantly lower prices." The latest rise in production was lower than initially feared, contributing to a small rise in the prices for the entire week," they stated. Investors worry that a prolonged U.S. shutdown will dampen the American economic climate and affect oil demand. The United States is the largest crude consumer in the world.
Oil Prices Fall to Multi-Month Lows as Gaza Ceasefire Ease Geopolitical Risks -- Global oil prices fell sharply on Friday, reaching their lowest levels in several months, as geopolitical risk premiums unwound following a breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas aimed at ending the prolonged conflict in Gaza. Brent crude futures dropped $1.73, or 2.7%, to settle at $63.49 per barrel, having earlier touched an intraday low of $63.27, the weakest level since early June. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.71, or 2.8%, to $59.80, after dipping as low as $59.57, its lowest price since May. The losses cap a volatile week for energy markets, which had briefly rallied midweek amid fears of prolonged conflict in Ukraine but reversed course as diplomatic progress in the Middle East calmed supply disruption fears. “The possibility of a durable peace process in the Middle East has significantly eased market concerns,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB Bank. “Fears over disruptions to oil tanker traffic through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea have lessened, restoring a degree of investor confidence.” The ceasefire agreement, the first phase of a U.S.-backed peace initiative, was signed Thursday by Israel and Hamas, with formal approval from the Israeli government coming early Friday. The deal mandates a temporary halt to fighting, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of all remaining hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Alongside easing geopolitical tensions, oil markets are increasingly responding to signals of a potential supply glut. Analysts expect crude supplies to exceed demand in Q4, particularly as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) begin to gradually ease production cuts. “The focus is now shifting back to fundamentals,” said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodities Strategist at ANZ. “A ceasefire in Gaza has removed a key upside risk, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a modest production increase in November, supply concerns are re-emerging.” A research note from BMI analysts reinforced that sentiment, saying: “While expectations of a dramatic supply surge haven’t materialized, the latest decline reflects a blend of political easing and economic uncertainty.” Brent and WTI are both down around 1.7% and 1.9% respectively for the week. Further weighing on crude is anxiety over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could dent economic momentum and reduce demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Investors remain wary of the macroeconomic headwinds facing global energy markets. “Short-term demand indicators are flashing warning signs,” Hynes added. “If the U.S. budget crisis drags on, oil could face additional downward pressure heading into the winter months.” Despite the recent pullback, energy markets remain on edge amid a confluence of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, from fragile ceasefires to fragile economies.
Oil prices fall on Gaza cease-fire deal despite new US sanctions on Iran --Oil prices fell Friday after Israel and Hamas reached the first phase of a US-brokered cease-fire in Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices in recent months, despite new sanctions by Washington targeting Iran's oil network. Brent crude was trading at $64.66 per barrel at 09.42 a.m. local time (0642 GMT), down 0.5% from the previous close of $64.99. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 0.5% to $60.82 from $61.16 in the prior session. The cease-fire, confirmed late Thursday, includes Israeli troop withdrawals, the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas said that it has received guarantees from the mediators and the US that the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip has "fully ended." In a pre-recorded speech, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya announced a ceasefire agreement with Israel. "We have received guarantees from our brothers the mediators and the US administration, all confirming that the war has ended completely," al-Hayya said. Analysts said the truce reduced fears of supply disruptions. "This presents a major step toward ending the two-year war that raised the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note. "This saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts," Hynes added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, tempered recent price gains by confirming a planned production increase for November. Eight member countries agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, easing supply concerns and adding downward pressure on prices. The group's next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2. Losses were capped, however, after the US imposed sanctions on more than 90 individuals, entities and vessels accused of facilitating Iran's petroleum and petrochemical exports through the UAE, India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Treasury Department announced that it has designated more than 50 individuals involved in facilitating billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports. Targets included networks based in the five Asian hubs, nearly two dozen "shadow fleet" vessels, a China-based crude oil terminal, and an independent refinery, "key to Iran's ability to export petroleum and petroleum products." The State Department separately sanctioned approximately 40 additional individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran’s energy trade, including top buyers of Iranian petrochemicals and operators of a shadow fleet of tankers.
Trump tariff threat pushes oil to five-month low (Reuters) -Brent and U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel, or more than 3%, on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose increased tariffs on China cast a shadow over the demand outlook in a market seen as oversupplied. "The sell-off was driven by a shift to risk-off markets following Trump’s post threatening tariffs on Chinese goods," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS. Brent crude futures settled at $62.73 a barrel, down $2.49, or 3.82%, the lowest since May 5. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.90 a barrel down $2.61, or 4.24%, the lowest since early May. "Today is the culmination of a variety of factors of which Trump’s threat of a massive increase in tariffs on China is just the latest," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Production increases from OPEC, additional output gains in North and South America, and the loss of geopolitical risk after the Gaza ceasefire agreement "are all factors that can be layered on top of Trump’s announcement this morning of tariffs on China," Lipow said. Trump, who was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in about three weeks in South Korea, complained on social media about what he characterized as China’s plans to hold the global economy hostage, after China dramatically expanded its export controls on rare earth elements on Thursday. China dominates the market for such elements, which are essential to tech manufacturing. In addition to threatening to cancel the meeting with Xi, Trump said he may impose a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, which Israel’s government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Numerous vessels have been attacked by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen since 2023, targeting ships they deem linked to Israel in what they described as solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza. The Gaza ceasefire deal means the focus can move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts, A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. "Markets’ expectations for a sharp ramp-up in crude supply have not manifested themselves in substantially lower prices," BMI analysts said in a note on Friday. Investors are also worried that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand in the world’s largest crude consumer.
Report: Netanyahu Ordered Drone Attack on Gaza Aid Flotilla Boats in Tunisia - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly ordered attacks on the Global Sumud Flotilla that were carried out in early September while the boats were moored in Tunisia, CBS News reported on Friday. A total of two boats were hit in two attacks that were conducted on September 8 and September 9. Two US intelligence officials told CBS News that Israel forces fired drones from a submarine that dropped incendiary devices and caused fires. The report noted that under international law, the use of incendiary devices against civilian populations or civilian targets is prohibited. The attacks targeted the Family, a Portuguese-flagged vessel, and the Alma, a British-flagged vessel. In both cases, the crews were able to extinguish the fire, and the attacks caused no casualties. Footage of the Israeli attack on the Alma on September 9, 2025 (via social media)In a September 22 interview, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack acknowledged that Israel was behind the operation by saying Israel had attacked Tunisia. “So Israel is attacking Syria. Israel is attacking Lebanon. Israel is attacking Tunisia,” Barrack told The National.In a statement to CBS, the Global Sumud Flotilla said, “Confirmation of Israeli involvement would not surprise us; it would simply lay bare a pattern of arrogance and impunity so grotesque that it cannot escape eventual reckoning.”The group added, “Whether the purpose of these attacks was to kill us, scare us away, or disable our boats, they recklessly endangered civilians and humanitarian volunteers. The world must take note: attempts to silence, intimidate, or obstruct our commitment to the Palestinian cause and people will not succeed. We call for urgent, independent investigations into these attacks and full accountability for those responsible.”Despite the attack in Tunisia, the flotilla continued on its mission to attempt to bring food to starving Palestinians living under the Israeli blockade in Gaza. The boats came under attack from multiple drones while sailing in the Mediterranean Sea south of Greece, and they were all eventually captured by Israeli forces while in international waters and approaching Gaza.Hundreds of activists, including at least 24 US citizens, were thrown into prison when the IDF brought them to Israel. Some have since been deported and are alleging they were severely mistreated by Israeli forces.
Israel deports Greta Thunberg and other Gaza flotilla activists -- Swedish activist Greta Thunberg has arrived in Greece along with 160 other campaigners from the Global Sumud Flotilla, having been deported by Israel. Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced on X on Monday that it had expelled a total of 171 activists from the flotilla’s ships, which were intercepted last week while trying to bring aid to blockaded Gaza. This brings the total deported so far up to 341. The Greek Foreign Ministry confirmed that 161 of the expelled activists — including 27 Greeks and 134 nationals from 15 other countries — arrived on a flight to Athens on Monday, according to news agency AFP. “Let me be very clear. There is a genocide going on,” Thunberg told the crowd at the Athens airport, referring to Israeli military action in Gaza. “Our international systems are betraying Palestinians. They are not even able to prevent the worst war crimes from happening,” she said, in comments carried by AFP. “What we aimed to do with the Global Sumud Flotilla was to step up when our governments failed to do their legal obligation,” she added. The 22-year-old was allegedly abused by Israeli forces while in detention. Turkish journalist and Sumud Flotilla participant Ersin Celik earlier told local media how Thunberg was “dragged on the ground” and “forced to kiss the Israeli flag”. Slovakia’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, confirmed that 10 of the deportees had arrived there, including one of its nationals and nine other people from the Netherlands, Canada and the United States. The Council was told of positive achievements like more than Among those arriving in Athens, Rima Hassan, a French-Palestinian member of the European Parliament, reported having been hit by Israeli police after the flotilla was intercepted. “I was beaten by two police officers when they put me in the van,” she told AFP. Hassan said she and other detainees were kept in groups of up to 15 per cell on mattresses in a high-security Israeli prison. The flotilla departed from Barcelona in Spain in early September and was intercepted by the Israeli navy in international waters approaching Gaza. Israeli police said more than 470 people aboard the flotilla boats were arrested. The Foreign Ministry told AFP that 138 flotilla participants remained in detention in Israel.
Israel and Hamas begin indirect Gaza ceasefire talks in Egypt - — Israel and Hamas have started indirect talks on a plan to end the war in Gaza. An Egyptian official — speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the talks — told The Associated Press that the talks started at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday. Egypt's state-owned Al-Qahera News TV station reported that the talks began with a meeting between a Hamas delegation and Arab mediators, who were expected to meet later with an Israeli delegation. Negotiators were expected to discuss President Trump's 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza, which was sparked two years ago, on Oct. 7, by the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel. Mr. Trump presented his plan during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last Monday. Hamas — which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., Israel and many other nations — issued a statement on Friday saying it agreed to some of the key points in the plan, including releasing all the remaining hostages, living and deceased, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. It also said it agreed to handing over control of Gaza to a transitional international body. But Hamas did not immediately agree to other points in Mr. Trump's proposal, including some related to its disarmament and future role in Palestinian politics. Mr. Trump on Sunday urged the negotiators to "move fast" in the talks, calling ongoing discussions between Hamas and other nations in the region about the ceasefire proposal "very successful." He said they were "proceeding rapidly."
Day one of Israel and Hamas indirect talks ends on ‘positive’ note in Egypt | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera - - The first day of resumed indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt ended on a positive note, amid hopes of a potential deal to implement United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war on Gaza, multiple sources told Al Jazeera and other media outlets. Negotiators are set to return for more discussions on Tuesday.Sources told Al Jazeera Arabic that the meeting in the Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday was “positive” and that a roadmap was drawn up for how the current round of talks would continue.The Hamas delegation told mediators that Israel’s continued bombing of Gaza poses a challenge to negotiations on the release of captives, Al Jazeera Arabic reported. The Hamas delegation included Hamas leaders Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin, two negotiators who survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Qatar’s capital Doha that killed five people last month. The day-one talks covered the proposed exchange of prisoners and captives, a ceasefire, and humanitarian aid entering Gaza, according to Egypt’s state-linked Al-Qahera News. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said Trump was pushing for an early exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, in a bid to build “momentum” to implement other parts of his plan to end the Gaza war.“The technical teams are discussing that as we speak, to ensure that the environment is perfect to release those hostages,” Leavitt said, adding that teams were “going over the list of both the Israeli hostages and also the political prisoners who will be released”. Trump, speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, said “we have a really good chance of making a deal”, while also noting that he still has his own “red lines”. “But I think we’re doing very well. And I think Hamas has been agreeing to things that are very important,” Trump added.
Israeli Strikes on Gaza Continue as Peace Talks Are Underway - The genocidal assault on Gaza is raging on as Hamas and Israeli officials meet in Egypt to hammer out the details of the hostage exchange and ceasefire proposed by President Donald Trump. Israel killed three Palestinians in an area deemed a “humanitarian zone” by Tel Aviv. Israeli jets pounded areas near Gaza City and Khan Younis, killing at least ten Palestinians on Tuesday, including three in the Mawasi safe zone. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, at least 67,173 Palestinians have been killed by Israel during the two-year-long onslaught. That number is considered an undercount, as tens of thousands of Palestinians are missing and are likely dead beneath the rubble. Additionally, the Israeli siege of Gaza is taking its toll on Palestinians, particularly children. UNICEF reported that Israel is blocking the transfer of incubators into the Strip. James Elder, a UNICEF spokesperson, said the medical devices were desperately needed. “In one of the paediatric rooms, there were three babies and three mums on a single bed, one source of oxygen, and the mothers would rotate the oxygen 20 minutes to each child,” he told the Reuters news agency. “This is the level of desperation mums have now got to.”
Israel and Hamas agree Gaza ceasefire — Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that's intended to end to the devastating Gaza war which unleashed the deadliest fighting ever between Israelis and Palestinians. President Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Hamas "have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan." "This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!" The announcement came just hours after Trump told reporters at the White House he was prepared to travel to the Middle East as early as this weekend. Israel and Hamas don't speak to each other directly, requiring indirect negotiations that were brokered by President Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt. It is not clear when the ceasefire is due to take effect. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on social media that the cabinet would meet on Thursday, where they are expected to take vote on the ceasefire deal, "to approve the agreement and bring all our beloved hostages home". In the same social media posting, Netanyahu offered his "heartfelt thanks to President Trump and his team for their dedication to this sacred mission of freeing our hostages." The two later spoke on the phone, in a call the Israeli Prime Minister described as "a very emotional and warm conversation." In the same statement the Prime Minister said he had invited Trump to address the Knesset (Israeli parliament). It is believed the deal calls for Hamas to release nearly 50 hostages, living and dead, and for Israel to free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. According to a senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, "the deal goes to the Israeli cabinet tomorrow. Once they vote yes, Israel has to withdraw to the line which should take under 24 hours. Then the 72 hour clock begins, and Hamas will try to go earlier if possible. Our assessment is that hostages will begin getting released on Monday."
Israel and Hamas will exchange hostages and prisoners - Israel and Hamas have agreed to a pause in their devastating two-year war and the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners — a breakthrough greeted Thursday with joy and relief but also caution. Uncertainty remains about aspects of the broader ceasefire plan advanced by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump — such as whether and how Hamas will disarm and who will govern Gaza. But the sides appear closer than they have been in months to ending a war that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, reduced much of Gaza to rubble, brought famine to parts of the territory and left dozens of hostages, living and dead, in Gaza. The war, which began with Hamas' deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, has also triggered other conflicts in the region, sparked worldwide protests and led to allegations of genocide that Israel denies. Some 1,200 people were killed in the Hamas-led assault, and 251 were taken hostage. In Israel's ensuing offensive, more than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and nearly 170,000 wounded, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which doesn't differentiate between civilians and combatants but says around half of the deaths were women and children. Even with the agreement expected to be finalized later in the day, Israeli strikes continued, with explosions seen Thursday in northern Gaza. At least 11 dead Palestinians and another 49 who were wounded arrived at hospitals over the past 24 hours, Gaza's Health Ministry said. An Israeli military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with military guidelines said Israel was continuing to hit targets that posed a threat to its troops as they reposition. In the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, celebrations were relatively muted and often colored by grief. "I am happy and unhappy. We have lost a lot of people and lost loved ones, friends and family. We lost our homes," said Mohammad Al-Farra. "Despite our happiness, we cannot help but think of what is to come. ... The areas we are going back to, or intending to return to, are uninhabitable." In Tel Aviv, families of the remaining hostages popped champagne and cried tears of joy after Trump announced a deal late Wednesday. In Jerusalem on Thursday, Sharon Canot celebrated with some others. "We are so excited this morning. We cried all morning," she said. "It's been two years that we are in horror." Under the terms, Hamas intends to release all living hostages in a matter of days, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of an agreement that has not fully been made public. Some 20 of the 48 hostages still in captivity are believed to be alive. In a short video posted by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump was seen speaking by phone to a group of elated hostage families. "They are all coming back on Monday," said Trump, who is expected in the region in the coming days.
Yemen's Houthis To 'Monitor' Israel Compliance With Gaza Ceasefire Deal - Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen’s Ansar Allah, said on Thursday that Yemen will be “monitoring” Israel’s compliance with the Gaza ceasefire deal, warning Yemeni support for the Palestinians in Gaza would continue if the deal isn’t implemented. “We must be at the highest levels of caution and readiness, and continue the massive popular momentum with the Palestinian people, until we determine whether the agreement will be achieved, or whether we will continue our path of support and assistance to the Palestinian people,” al-Houthi said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency. “We will remain vigilant, prepared, and monitor the progress of the agreement. Will it lead to an end to the aggression on the Gaza Strip and the entry of aid, food, medicine, and humanitarian needs to the Palestinian people? Will the Americans and Israelis stop their genocide against the Palestinian people and commit to a ceasefire? This is what we hope for, and it was our goal in the support operations and confronting the attack on the Palestinian people and the nation in general,” al-Houthi added. Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, has maintained that its attacks on Israel and blockade of Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea would end if there were a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade on aid entering the Palestinian territory. The Houthis halted their attacks back when a ceasefire deal was signed in January 2025. After Israel violated the ceasefire deal in March by imposing a total blockade on Gaza, al-Houthi announced that Yemen would restart its blockade on Israeli shipping. In response to that announcement, the US began a very heavy bombing campaign targeting Yemen, known as Operation Rough Rider, which lasted from March 15 to May 6 and killed over 250 civilians.
Israel Has Damaged or Destroyed 83% of All Buildings in Gaza City - The UN said on Wednesday that Israeli forces have damaged or destroyed 83% of all buildings in Gaza City as the IDF continues to strike the city despite the ongoing ceasefire talks in Egypt.“Today, the UN Satellite Centre published a preliminary analysis showing that the extent of damage in Gaza City alone encompasses 83% of the structures. About 81,000 housing units have been damaged,” said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric, according to the Anadolu Agency.Since early August, the IDF has been conducting an offensive in famine-stricken Gaza City with the aim of cleansing its Palestinian population and destroying every building. Israeli forces have been razing entire neighborhoods block by block and have also conducted airstrikes to topple high-rise apartment buildings.The IDF appears to have eased up its offensive in Gaza City amid the ceasefire negotiations, but they haven’t stopped completely. Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces bombed eastern Gaza City on Wednesday evening and said it was unclear if there were any casualties. Earlier in the day, the IDFclaimed it targeted Hamas fighters attempting to target Israeli troops occupying Gaza City.Dujarric said that “Israeli military operations have continued, including in the Rimal and Zaitoun neighborhoods in Gaza City, making the already dire humanitarian situation even more perilous.” He added that “many people are unable to leave the north due to insecurity.”
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