oil prices ended lower for a second week, following two weekly increases in early May, as OPEC met and decided to increase their production again in July…after falling 0.7% to $61.53 per barrel last week on the likelihood that OPEC would agree to increase their production again in July when they met this week, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for July delivery was little changed on global markets over the US & UK holiday weekends, as traders weighed the possibility of an OPEC+ decision to raise output at a meeting scheduled for later in the week, then eased during Asian trading on Tuesday, as traders held off on major moves ahead of that key OPEC+ meeting that could reshape the trajectory of global supply, but briefly flipped to positive early during the New York session after CNN said fresh penalties on Moscow might be announced in the coming days, potentially risking crude supplies in one of the world’s largest producers, before again fading to settle 64 cents lower at $60.89 a barrel as traders worried about an oil supply glut after progress in Iranian and U.S. talks, and on expectations that OPEC+ would decide to increase their output at a meeting later this week….oil prices moved lower in Asian trading again on Wednesday, as the market awaited two OPEC+ meetings scheduled later this week, then traded higher after OPEC+ agreed to establish a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 oil production, and settled up 95 cents at $61.84 a barrel as the OPEC+ countries agreed to leave their formal output quotas unchanged and traders' focus shifted toward potential increases from an eight-member subset of the alliance that had been carrying out separate voluntary production cuts…oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday after the US Court of International Trade blocked Trump from imposing sweeping global tariffs on imports, then came off early lows in US trading after the EIA reported across the board withdrawals from crude and oil product inventories, but retreated from those early gains to settle 90 cents lower at $60.94 a barrel, as traders weighed the potential effects of the U.S. federal court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs against the expectations that OPEC+ would unwind another 411,000 bpd of production cuts in July at its meeting on Saturday…oil prices increased about a half percent during Asian trading on Friday, supported by EIA data showing an unexpected drop in US crude stockpiles, while gains were capped by expectations of a potential production hike from the OPEC+ group in July and uncertainty stemming from a court ruling that upheld tariffs imposed by US President Trump, then tuned negative during the US session after Reuters reported that OPEC+ might discuss an increase in July output larger than the 411,000 barrels per day rise that the group decided on for May and June, but recovered from steeper losses to settle 15 cents lower at $60.79 a barrel as traders expected OPEC+ would decide on Saturday to boost oil output for July beyond previous forecasts, which left the July oil contract down 1.2% for the week..
meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for a second time in three weeks as another outage at the plagued Freeport LNG plant reduced US demand by 2%…after finishing unchanged at $3.334 per mmBTU last week as a building glut of gas in storage tempered otherwise bullish news, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for June delivery opened 2.6 cents higher on Tuesday, but fell to an intraday low of $3.272 by 9:25AM, as fundamentals remained largely unchanged from last week, but rallied ahead of the close to settle 6.4 cents higher at $3.398 per mmBTU as traders positioned ahead of the contract’s expiry Wednesday, while weighing near-record output levels against summer-like demand expected to arrive next week…that June gas contract opened 2.7 cents higher on its last day of trading Wednesday, but trended lower throughout the session to settle 19.4 cents lower at $3.204 per mmBTU, as an outage at the problem-plagued Freeport LNG export facility and a large storage injection looming combined to sharply reverse early price gains, while the higher priced and more actively traded benchmark natural gas contract for July delivery settled 18.7 cents lower at $3.557 per mmBTU…with markets now citing the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for July delivery, that price briefly jumped to the intraday high of $3.561 as the storage report hit the wire Thursday morning, then pulled back to tally a low of $3.439 nearly an hour later, as traders weighed healthy storage levels against anemic short-term weather forecasts, but recovered during afternoon trading to settle 3.5 cents lower at $3.522 per mmBTU after weekly government data showed the Lower 48’s pace of gas injections into storage could break records if hot summer temperatures didn’t arrive soon…July’s natural gas futures dipped in early trading on Friday, drowning under a series of hefty storage builds and predominantly mild weather, and settled 7.5 cents lower at $3.447 per mmBTU, on higher output from producing wells and lower demand from LNG plants…while natural gas price quotes appeared to finish 3.4% higher, that was due to comparing the higher priced July contract to the lower priced June contract; in fact, the price of both contracts actually ended lower, with the June contract expiring down 3.9% on Wednesday, while the July contract, which had settled last week at $3.725 per mmBTU, ended this week 7.5% lower....
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending May 23rd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 101 billion cubic feet to 2,476 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 316 billion cubic feet, or 11.6% below the 2,792 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on May 23rd of last year, but 93 billion cubic feet, or 3.9% more than the five-year average of 2,383 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 23rd of May over the most recent five years….the 101 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was a bit more than the 97 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, and also more than the 84 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as a bit more than the average 98 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same mid May week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 23rd indicated that after a big increase in our oil exports, we again had to withdraw oil from our stored crude supplies for the fifth time in seventeen weeks, and for the 26th time in forty-six weeks, even after a decrease in the amount of oil that US refineries were using...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 262,000 barrels per day to average 6,351,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average 247,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 794,000 barrels per day to average 4,301,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,050,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending May 23rd, an average of 532,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 579,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 9,000 barrels per day higher at 13,401,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,030,000 barrels per day during the May 23rd reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,328,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 23rd, an average of 162,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 282,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from storage, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending May 23rd averaged a rounded 15,000 barrels per day less than what what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +15,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been a small error or omission in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 282,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 399,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 117,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventy-third SPR increase in the past eighty-three weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,084,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 10.3% less than the 6,786,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 9,000 barrels per day higher at 13,40,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 8,000 barrels per day higher at 12,966,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 435,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.3% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 90.2% of their capacity while processing those 16,328,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending May 23rd, down from their 90.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, and down from the 91.7% utilization rate of nineteen weeks earlier, with the slowdown initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then an extended period of US refineries’ usual Spring maintenance…. the 16,328,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 4.4% less than the 17,083,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending May 24th of 2024, and were 2.6% less than the 16,767,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending May 24th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 91.2%, also a bit low for this time of year…
Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was higher, increasing by 190,000 barrels per day to 9,751,000 barrels per day during the week ending May 23rd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 178,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 2.6% less than the 10,011,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending May 24th of last year, and 1.2% less than the gasoline production of 9,863,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending May 24th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 100,000 barrels per day to 4,812,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 131,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with those production increases, our distillates output was 4.3% less than the 5,030,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending May 24th of 2024, and 7.1% less than the 5,182,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending May 24th, 2019…
Even with this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the third time in thirteen weeks, decreasing by 2,441,000 barrels to a twenty-three week low of 223,081,000 barrels during the week ending May 23rd, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 816,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 808,000 barrels per day to a thirty week high of 9,452,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of gasoline fell by 357,000 barrels per day to 626,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 8,000 barrels per day to 755,000 barrels per day while ….But after thirteen gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixteen weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.5% lower than last May 24th’s gasoline inventories of 228,844,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with the increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 15th time in 19 weeks, decreasing by 724,000 barrels to a 20 year low of 103,408,000 barrels during the week ending May 23rd, after our distillates supplies had increased by 579,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 481,000 to 3,893,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of distillates fell by 222,000 barrels per day to 1,136,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 27,000 barrels per day to 114,000 barrels per day...After 43 inventory withdrawals over the past 71 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 13.3% below the 119,288,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on May 24th of 2024, and were about 17% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, with the increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 13th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 26th time over the past year, decreasing by 2,795,000 barrels over the week, from 443,158,000 barrels on May 16th to 440,363,000 barrels on May 23rd, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 1,328,000 barrels to a 45 week high over the prior week… After that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories remained 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 24% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of May over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this May 23rd were 3.2% below the 454,689,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on May 24th of 2024, and 4.2% less than the 459,657,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 19th of 2023, but were 6.2% more than the 414,733,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on May 20th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count decreased by three during the week ending May 30th, the ninth decrease in eleven weeks, as four rigs targeting oil were removed while one rig targeting natural gas was added...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 30th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (May 23rd) and this week’s (May 30th) count, the third column shows last week’s May 23rd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Thursday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 31st of May, 2024…
the 461 oil directed rigs that were drilling this week was the lowest oil rig count since November 2021
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OH Passes Bill (Now Law) to Encourage More Gas-Fired Power Plants -Marcellus Drilling News In February, MDN told you about a proposed new bill in Ohio, House Bill (HB) 15, which makes significant changes to state energy policy to encourage the development of more in-state electric generation by making it easier (and more cost-effective) to build gas-fired power (see OH Legislators, New Bill, Encourage More Gas-Fired Power Plants). The bill aims to boost power generation, specifically dispatchable power, in Ohio while improving affordability for ratepayers and increasing reliability within the state’s electrical grid. HB 15 supports market forces in the energy sector, removes barriers to new electricity generation development in Ohio, and protects ratepayers from unnecessary costs. On April 30, the Ohio legislature voted to pass HB 15. It didn't take Republican Governor Mike DeWine long to sign it into law.
Austin Master Services Ohio Frack Waste Cleanup Complete Today - Marcellus Drilling News - One of the significant stories of 2024 in the Ohio Utica was about Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry, Ohio, that handles fracking waste by transporting it for disposal. AMS ran into trouble when it ran out of money. The Martins Ferry facility in Belmont County, where waste is temporarily stored, had exceeded its permitted maximum of 600 tons of stored waste, resulting in a violation of its permit. The Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against the company in March 2024 to force compliance and to force the cleanup of the facility. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) stepped in to do the cleanup work. As of today, cleaning and testing are done.
Rover Pipeline Heads to Ohio Supreme Court to Lower Tax Assessment - Marcellus Drilling News- Rover Pipeline, a 713-mile natural gas pipeline, was designed to carry up to 3.25 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of Marcellus and Utica gas from Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio to destinations in Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia, and Canada. The project was completed and came online in late 2018 (see FERC OKs Final 2 Rover Pipeline Laterals – Now 100% Online). Rover’s original estimated cost to build the project was $4.08 billion. It ultimately cost $6.3 billion, as historically high rainfall led to additional unforeseen expenses, delays, and inspections stemming from the excessive rain. Most of the pipeline runs through Ohio, which assesses a property tax on such projects. Rover and Ohio disagree over the value to be assigned to the pipeline for annual taxation purposes. The case is heading to the Ohio Supreme Court next week
Supreme Court: Property Taxes Due From Natural Gas Pipeline Owner Disputed - -The company Rover Pipeline was created about 10 years ago to build an interstate pipeline to expand capacity for transporting natural gas from Marcellus and Utica Shale regions, which include parts of Ohio. The 713-mile pipeline travels across 18 Ohio counties and delivers natural gas to distribution points in and outside of the state and in Canada.Business trade associations in Ohio note that natural gas is a valuable natural resource for the state, used for heating and producing electricity. Property taxes on a pipeline such as Rover’s also provide millions of dollars that are relied on by school districts and local governments. The U.S. Energy Administration reports that Ohio is one of the nation’s top 10 natural gas producers. And the trade associations point out that the demand is only rising throughout the United States – including for the growing need to generate electricity for data centers.Rover originally projected the cost for constructing the pipeline at $4.08 billion. It was completed in November 2018 at a cost of $6.3 billion. Unanticipated costs, delays, and inspections occurred after historically high rainfall during construction and a cleanup following the release of drilling fluid into nearby wetlands, the company stated.Because the pipeline runs through Ohio, Rover must pay public utility personal property taxes on it. In a taxappeal to be heard by the Supreme Court of Ohio next week, Rover objects to the pipeline’s valuation of $5.67 billion for tax year 2019. The valuation, accepted by the Board of Tax Appeals (BTA), was in part based on the cost to construct the pipeline. The Ohio taxable value, after adjusting for sections of the pipeline outside of Ohio or exempt from taxation, was determined to be $3.67 billion. Rover states that based on this value, its tax liability for 2019 alone would be $215 million.A group of 18 county auditors, one school district in Henry County, and several associations, including the Ohio Library Council, submitted a brief supporting neither side but seeking prompt resolution of the case. The group highlights the financial impact on local governments, including approximately 70 school districts and 78 townships, given five years of disagreement over the pipeline’s tax value. Until the appeal is resolved, Rover makes reduced property tax payments, the group explains. Those reduced payments impact school districts and local construction projects. In the Napoleon Area City School District, for example, Rover has contested $10.32 million in total property taxes for tax years 2019 through 2023. Also, the group asserts that certain state funding for school districts is allocated based on full property values, not the reduced amounts Rover is paying. Local construction projects have been put on hold, which will increase costs and incur higher interest rates over time, the group adds.
Columbia Gas Survives Ohio Landowners' Plugged Well Challenge - Bloomberg Law News
- Property owner lease with Columbia shows well plugging allowed
- Without successful breach of contract claim, other claims fail
Columbia Gas Transmission LLC won its bid for a quick win against Ohio landowners who claimed the company breached certain agreements when deciding to plug a gas well. Granting summary judgment to Columbia was appropriate because the landowners failed to show how the company didn’t follow its responsibilities outlined in the relevant lease, Judge James L. Graham of the US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio said in an opinion filed Thursday. Previous land owners of a property in Hocking County, Ohio, entered into an oil and gas lease in 1950—and again in 1952—with Ohio Fuel Gas ...
OH Landowners Lose Lawsuit v. Columbia Gas re Plugging Old Well -Marcellus Drilling News -Columbia Gas Transmission LLC won its bid for a quick win against Ohio landowners in Hocking County, Ohio, who claimed the company breached certain agreements when deciding to plug a gas well. A federal judge granted summary judgment to Columbia because the landowners failed to show how the company didn’t follow its responsibilities outlined in the relevant lease. We have a copy of the full decision and a summary of it below.
Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Raises Stock Position in Enbridge Inc. (NYSE:ENB) -Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio increased its stake in shares of Enbridge Inc. (NYSE:ENB - Free Report) TSE: ENB by 18.1% in the fourth quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 518,750 shares of the pipeline company's stock after purchasing an additional 79,549 shares during the period. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Enbridge were worth $22,009,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period. ENB has been the topic of a number of research reports. Wall Street Zen upgraded Enbridge from a "sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research note on Thursday, May 22nd. BMO Capital Markets reissued a "market perform" rating on shares of Enbridge in a report on Monday, May 12th. Citigroup started coverage on Enbridge in a research note on Friday, April 4th. They issued a "buy" rating for the company. Royal Bank of Canada restated an "outperform" rating and set a $67.00 price objective on shares of Enbridge in a research report on Monday, May 12th. Finally, CIBC restated an "outperform" rating on shares of Enbridge in a research report on Wednesday, March 5th. Six analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and four have given a buy rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Enbridge has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $67.00.Enbridge Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company. The company operates through five segments: Liquids Pipelines, Gas Transmission and Midstream, Gas Distribution and Storage, Renewable Power Generation, and Energy Services. The Liquids Pipelines segment operates pipelines and related terminals to transport various grades of crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons in Canada and the United States.
Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Increases Stock Position in Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSE:LNG) - Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio raised its position in shares of Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSE:LNG - Free Report) by 10.3% in the fourth quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 95,632 shares of the energy company's stock after acquiring an additional 8,944 shares during the quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Cheniere Energy were worth $20,548,000 as of its most recent SEC filing. Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, May 8th. The energy company reported $1.57 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.81 by ($1.24). The company had revenue of $5.44 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $4.73 billion. Cheniere Energy had a return on equity of 37.19% and a net margin of 20.71%. The firm's revenue was up 28.0% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $2.13 EPS. Analysts anticipate that Cheniere Energy, Inc. will post 11.69 earnings per share for the current year. Cheniere Energy, Inc, an energy infrastructure company, primarily engages in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) related businesses in the United States. It owns and operates the Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana; and the Corpus Christi LNG terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas. The company also owns Creole Trail pipeline, a 94-mile natural gas supply pipeline that interconnects the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal with several interstate and intrastate pipelines; and operates Corpus Christi pipeline, a 21.5-mile natural gas supply pipeline that interconnects the Corpus Christi LNG terminal with various interstate and intrastate natural gas pipelines.
EOG paying $5.6 billion for Encino Utica assets | Oil & Gas Journal - EOG Resources Inc., Houston, has agreed to buy Encino Acquisition Partners LLC, the largest oil producer in Ohio, for $5.6 billion. Executives say the plan will grow EOG’s Utica Shale holdings into a 275,000 boe/d operation and turn it from a developing asset into a foundational one. EOG chairman and chief executive officer Ezra Yacob said May 30 that his team has been working in the Utica with and alongside Encino for years and added that both leadership teams “found ourselves at a point where it made a lot of sense going forward to consolidate these positions.” Encino Acquisition Partners was launched in 2017 by Encino Energy, also of Houston, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board when they acquired the Utica operations of what was then Chesapeake Energy Corp. EOG today controls about 460,000 net acres in eastern Ohio and is producing about 40,000 boe/d while Encino owns about 675,000 acres and is producing 235,000 boe/d. When combined—the cash-and-debt acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year—the operations will control more than 2 billion boe of reserves. “This acquisition is not merely about scaling up. It’s about enhancing the quality and depth of our portfolio,” Yacob said on a conference call with analysts. About 45% of the companies’ prospective joint production in the Utica will be gas. Oil will account for roughly a quarter of production with natural gas liquids accounting for the remaining 30%. Yacob said he expects EOG to apply some of its technologies to Encino’s operations—since 2022, EOG’s average production per foot drilled in the volatile oil window has been about 10% higher than Encino’s—and thinks both entities’ teams should be able to bring learnings from their work on liquids to gas operations. Buying Encino is expected to add 10% to EOG’s annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Additionally, the team expects lower capital, operating and debt financing costs will generate $150 million in savings in the first year the companies are under the same umbrella. Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research, said the Encino deal lets EOG—which hasn’t made a big acquisition since buying Yates Petroleum in 2016—accumulate inventories in an energy market that has seen other players strike big deals in recent years (OGJ Online, Sept. 9, 2016). “Targeting this area provided for a significantly less expensive acquisition cost for undeveloped locations than what could be found in the Permian while also getting a much less developed asset than what would be available at scale in areas like the Eagle Ford and Williston Basin,” Dittmar said. “While M&A has been rare for EOG, this looks like the kind of deal we would expect the company to make," he continued. On the conference call, Yacob told analysts that EOG will integrate the three to four rigs and two completion crews Encino is running today and added that it’s too early to outline production targets for 2026.
Shale producer EOG boosts Utica footprint with $5.6 billion Encino deal (Reuters) - EOG Resources said on Friday it would acquire U.S. oil and gas firm Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6 billion, including debt, to bolster its Utica shale position. The Utica and Marcellus region is one of the world's most prolific and vital natural gas production areas, with output topping 35 billion cubic feet per day and decades of reserves yet to be tapped, attracting the interest of several producers.. Encino Acquisition, majority-owned by Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, operates in the Utica shale basin of Ohio and is one of the largest privately-owned oil and gas exploration and production companies in the U.S. "Encino acreage fits hand in glove with our existing Utica acreage and enhances our size, scale and returns in the play," CEO Ezra Yacob said on a conference call. The deal will give EOG access to additional 675,000 net core acres and more than 1 billion barrels of undeveloped net resource. It marks the culmination of a methodical, multi-year strategy by EOG to build a high-quality, low-cost position in the basin through a combination of organic leasing, bolt-on acquisitions, and the latest large-scale deal, company executives said. "Looks like a beneficial move for EOG after nearly a decade without any major acquisition," said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus, noting it offered a lower-cost entry into undeveloped areas compared to the Permian. While peers pursued major acquisitions, EOG focused on organic growth - a risky strategy considering high-quality undrilled inventory became scarce amid industry consolidation, Dittmar added. Encino has secured more than 800 million cubic feet per day of firm natural gas transportation capacity, with about 70% reaching premium markets through pipelines such as Texas Eastern and Tennessee Gas. Their footprint spans Gulf Coast, Southeast, Northeast and Midcontinent markets, positioning EOG well to tap into rising demand. "We see a very robust environment for North American gas demand and continued strong medium- and long-term demand for oil," Yacob said. EOG expects to fund the acquisition, likely to close in the second half of this year, through $3.5 billion of debt and $2.1 billion of cash on hand. Shares of the company, which also announced a 5% increase in regular dividend, were down about 1%.
24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 19 – 25 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of May 19 – 25, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica was down seven from the previous week. Last week, 24 new permits were issued in the M-U. In the Keystone State (PA), just four new permits were issued, all of them going to Expand Energy (Chesapeake) for a pad in Sullivan County. The Buckeye State (OH) received 13 new permits, with most (five) going to Encino Energy (EAP) in Columbiana County. EOG Resources received four permits for Carroll County, and Gulfport Energy received four permits for Belmont County. The Mountain State (WV) scored seven new permits. Six of the seven went to Antero Resources for a single pad in Tyler County. One permit was issued to Marion Natural Energy in Marion County. ANTERO RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EOG RESOURCES| EXPAND ENERGY | GULFPORT ENERGY | MARION COUNTY | MARION NATURAL ENERGY | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TYLER COUNTY
Clark Hill adds three oil and gas litigators -Clark Hill announced today that Kerri (Coriston) Sturm has joined the firm’s Litigation group as a Member in the Pittsburgh and Morgantown offices. Joining Sturm are John Whipkey as Of Counsel in the Morgantown office and David Jones as a senior attorney in the Pittsburgh office.The trio of attorneys focus much of their practice on complex issues in the oil and gas industry.”Sturm, Whipkey, and Jones regularly support landowners and non-operators in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Colorado. Recently, they’ve been assisting clients in disputes over underpayment of royalties and title issues involving production from the Marcellus and Utica shale.“We’re excited to have Kerri, John, and David expand our reach in the oil and gas industry,” said Clark Hill Chairman Jeff Conn. “They’ve had tremendous success in representing clients in the oil and gas industry, and we’re excited to help them grow their practice nationwide.”Sturm, Whipkey, and Jones are active in a number of oil and gas landowner associations. Sturm earned her law degree from The Ohio State University College of Law, while Whipkey and Jones graduated from the University of Pittsburgh School of Law.
Williams to “Imminently” File with FERC to Revive 2 New York Pipes -Marcellus Drilling News- The effort by the Trump administration to build both the Constitution Pipeline and the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) Project continues to pick up steam. Just yesterday, we told you that there was a public disagreement between the White House and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul regarding whether she agreed to a quid pro quo deal to allow the two pipelines in return for restarting an offshore windmill project (see White House Claims NY Gov. “Caved” on Pipelines, Hochul Says No). Regardless of whether a deal was reached or not, the key question has been: will Williams, the pipeline company for both projects, be willing to invest more money in those projects after losing hundreds of millions when NY blocked them? The answer, if reports from two mainstream media outlets are accurate, appears to be YES!
Big Green Fires Warning Shot at NY Gov. Hochul re Gas Pipelines - Marcellus Drilling News - - Big Green is NOT happy with the prospect that New York Governor Kathy Hochul is rumored to have “caved” and traded approvals for two natural gas pipelines—the Constitution and Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE)—in return for building a $5 billion boondoggle wind farm off the coast of Long Island. As we reported today in a related post (Williams Files Request Asking FERC to Reissue NESE Cert in NY, NJ), Hochul did cave and agreed to allow these two pipeline projects, provided they meet federal and state requirements. Prior to the news breaking (via the New York Times and other outlets), Big Green, comprising Food & Water Watch, the NRDC, NYPIRG, Frack Action, and Catskill Mountainkeeper, issued a joint press release warning Hochul that she should not allow these pipelines…or else.
Regulator OKs some construction at Louisiana gas export terminal - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a letter Friday approving a limited notice to proceed to the developer of the CP2 LNG project. The developer of a large gas export terminal in Louisiana can move ahead with a limited set of construction activities, federal regulators said Friday, a week after they reaffirmed the project’s authorization.Venture Global can proceed with a handful of activities tied to the company’s CP2 LNG project planned in the southwest part of the state, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said in a brief letter signed by an official in the agency’s gas branch. Those activities include the construction of temporary facilities, like access roads and parking areas, as well as site preparation and the installation of water wells, the letter said. The approval, or “limited notice to proceed with construction,” does not give CP2 “the authority to construct other project facilities at the LNG terminal,” it continued. A separate letter from the commission’s LNG branch, also issued Friday, said Venture Global could start on construction activities tied to a storm surge wall.
Venture Global Given FERC Greenlight to Construct CP2 LNG Export Project - Venture Global LNG Inc. has been granted full authorization to build its CP2 LNG export project and the CP Express pipeline in Louisiana after FERC upheld its environmental analysis. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reaffirmed its authorization of the 28 million tons/year (Mt/y) peak capacity export project, pushing the amount of approved U.S. export capacity to 34 Bcf/d, according to NGI’s LNG project tracker. Commission staff concluded that an additional environmental review completed in February answered issues raised by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Circuit) and environmental groups that could have resulted in a remand.
NextDecade, Energy Transfer Sign Up More Offtakers – Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - NextDecade Corp. has signed a binding sales and purchase agreement to sell Jera Co. Inc. 2 million tons/year of LNG for 20 years from the Rio Grande export project under development in South Texas. NextDecade said it would supply the LNG from the fifth train on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at prices linked to Henry Hub. The company is in the process of building the first 17.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) phase that consists of three trains. It is working to commercialize the fourth and fifth trains. The deal with Jera, Japan’s largest power generator, is subject to NextDecade reaching a positive final investment decision (FID) on the fifth train.
Natural Gas Nominations to Freeport LNG Drop Again — The Offtake --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 55%: Feed gas nominations to Freeport LNG dropped significantly during intraday trading Wednesday, indicating a possible outage, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Nominations to Gulf South Pipeline Co. LP’s Stratton Ridge location dropped more than 30% in the mid-afternoon compared to evening nominations Tuesday. The pipeline operator also issued a “failure to take” notice before noon. Data showed possible flows on the pipeline were near the same levels as Friday, when Freeport LNG reported a compressor issue that caused an outage of Train 1.
- 2.6-3.5 Bcf: South Africa has offered to buy 75-100 million cubic meters, or roughly 2.6-3.5 Bcf, of LNG as a part of trade negotiations with the United States. The South African government disclosed Sunday it would be willing to purchase U.S. gas exports as a part of a 10-year agreement, according to a statement. Royal Vopak NV, a major Dutch LNG terminal operator, and South African pipeline operator Transnet Pipeline are targeting a final investment decision on an import terminal next year. Imports could begin in 2028 through a floating facility before shifting to onshore infrastructure.
- $12.20/MMBtu: Global natural gas benchmarks retreated and LNG trades were limited through the beginning of the week despite pipeline gas supply curtailment in Europe. Prompt Title Transfer Facility fell about 17 cents from the start of the week to around $12.20 Wednesday. Asian LNG prices stayed above the $12.40 range as utilities in Bangladesh, South Korea and Thailand launched tenders this week for cargoes in July.
- 2070: Australia has given Woodside Energy Group Ltd. permission to extend the life of its Karratha field natural gas facility to 2070. Along with feeding its 16.9 Mt/y nameplate capacity North West Shelf LNG (NWS) export facility, Karratha gas production meets around 14% of Western Australia’s domestic supply. NWS exports, which head almost entirely to Asia, peaked in 2018 with 17.08 Mt shipped during the year, according to Kpler data. Shipments from the venture have declined consistently since 2022, falling to 14.06 Mt last year from 16.15 Mt.
Cheniere Buying More Natural Gas at Prices Linked to JKM in Canadian Natural Deal -Cheniere Energy Inc. has signed another agreement with a Canadian producer to secure North American natural gas supplies at prices tied to an international index to feed continued growth at its LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast. (graph comparing JKM natural gas prices to equivalent oil and coal prices) Cheniere signed a gas supply agreement, or what it calls an integrated production marketing agreement, with Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Under the deal, Canadian Natural would supply Cheniere with 140,000 MMBtu/d of natural gas for 15 years. The supply is expected to start in 2030 if Cheniere decides to move ahead with a major expansion project at its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana that would add 20 million tons/year (Mt/y) of liquefaction capacity.
DOE issues export approval for Texas gas expansion project - The Department of Energy issued a key authorization Thursday to an expansion of a natural gas liquefaction facility in southeast Texas, the first final export approval since President Donald Trump returned to office.In a 74-page order, DOE authorized the second phase of the Port Arthur LNG project to ship liquefied natural gas to countries that lack a free-trade agreement with the United States — a bucket that accounts for the majority of countries worldwide.On Thursday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the second phase of the Port Arthur project turns “more of the liquid gold beneath our feet into energy security for the American people.” Under Trump, Wright added, the department is restoring the United States’ role “as the world’s most reliable energy supplier.”
NYMEX Price Drops 19.4 Cents Due To Another Freeport LNG Outage - Marcellus Drilling News - We need a scorecard to keep track of all the ups and downs at the problem-plagued Freeport LNG export facility, located near Galveston, Texas. We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the plant, which is the third-largest LNG export plant in the U.S., has been down almost as much as it has been up since first coming online in 2019 (see our Freeport outage stories here). Feed gas nominations to the facility dropped by more than 30% yesterday, indicating that one of the three trains is, once again, offline. The situation led to a sharp decline in the NYMEX futures price of natural gas, which settled down 19.4 cents at $3.204/MMBtu. No comment from Freeport on this latest outage.
List U.S. LNG Export Terminals – Existing, Approved, and Proposed - Marcellus Drilling News - Did you know that there are eight LNG export terminals currently in operation in the U.S. with a combined export capacity of 14.43 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)? There are another eight LNG projects currently approved and under construction with a combined additional capacity of 17.43 Bcf/d. That’s right, all of the facilities under construction will more than double our current LNG exporting capacity! In addition to all of that, there are another 12 facilities approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) but not yet under construction. If they were to be built, add another massive 17.65 Bcf/d. Astonishing! We have maps with the names, locations,m and capacities for all LNG export facilities either in operation or planned.
Michigan Seeks 6th Circ. Rehearing In Enbridge Pipeline Row – Law360 -- Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has asked the full Sixth Circuit to find she is protected by sovereign immunity from an Enbridge Energy lawsuit to halt her efforts to shut down an oil and natural gas pipeline.
Army Corps analysis finds Great Lakes pipeline tunnel would have sweeping environmental impacts -Building an underground tunnel for an aging Enbridge oil pipeline that stretches across a Great Lakes channel could destroy wetlands and harm bat habitats but would eliminate the chances of a boat anchor rupturing the line and causing a catastrophic spill, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Friday in a long-awaited draft analysis of the proposed project's environmental impacts.The analysis moves the corps a step closer to approving the tunnel for Line 5 in the Straits of Mackinac. The tunnel was proposed in 2018 at a cost of $500 million but has been bogged down by legal challenges. The corps fast-tracked the project in April after President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies in January to identify energy projects for expedited emergency permitting.A final environmental assessment is expected by autumn, with a permitting decision to follow later this year. The agency initially planned to issue a permitting decision in early 2026.With that permit in hand, Enbridge would only need permission from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy before it could begin constructing the tunnel. That's far from a given, though.Environmentalists have been pressuring the state to deny the permit. Meanwhile, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are trying to win court rulings that would force Enbridge to remove the existing pipeline from the straits for good.The analysis notes that the tunnel would eliminate the risk of a boat anchor rupturing the pipeline and causing a spill in the straits, a key concern for environmentalists. But the construction would have sweeping effects on everything from recreation to wildlife. Many of the impacts, such as noise, vistas marred by 400-foot (121-meter) cranes, construction lights degrading stargazing opportunities at Headlands International Dark Sky Park and vibrations that would disturb aquatic wildlife would end when the work is completed, the report found.Other impacts would last longer, including the loss of wetlands and vegetation on both sides of the strait that connects Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, and the loss of nearly 300 trees that the northern long-eared bat and tricolored bat use to roost. Grading and excavation also could disturb or destroy archaeological sites.The tunnel-boring machine could cause vibrations that could shift the area's geology. Soil in the construction area could become contaminated and nearly 200 truck trips daily during the six-year construction period would degrade area roads, the analysis found. Gas mixing with water seeping into the tunnel could result in an explosion, but the analysis notes that Enbridge plans to install fans to properly ventilate the tunnel during excavation.Enbridge has pledged to comply with all safety standards, replant vegetation where possible and contain erosion, the analysis noted. The company also has said it would try to limit the loudest work to daytime hours as much as possible, and offset harm to wetlands and protected species by buying credits through mitigation banks. That money can then be used to fund restoration in other areas. The Sierra Club issued a statement Friday saying the tunnel remains “an existential threat.”“Chances of an oil spill in the Great Lakes — our most valuable freshwater resource — skyrockets if this tunnel is built in the Straits,” the group said. “We can't drink oil. We can't fish or swim in oil.”
Heat is killing oil workers. The industry is trying to kill a rule for that. - The oil and gas industry is pushing the Trump administration to kill a proposed rule that would protect workers from extreme heat, arguing that it jeopardizes the president’s vision of achieving “energy dominance.”The opposition comes as people who work in U.S. oil and gas fields face increasingly dangerous conditions as global temperatures swell with rising levels of climate pollution. The industry is among the nation’s leading workplaces for heat-related deaths and injuries.The American Petroleum Institute is one of several industry groups that has called on the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to abandon the regulation, which was proposed under former President Joe Biden and requires employers to offer water and rest breaks when temperatures rise above 80 degrees. The federal protections were drafted for the first time last year as global temperatures reached their highest levels ever recorded by humans.“API Ask: Do not proceed on the currently proposed Heat Injury and Illness Prevention Standard,” the group wrote to the Department of Labor in December, in a memo that has not previously been reported on. It lists the proposed heat rule as one of four priorities in a “vision for American energy leadership.”“The oil and gas industry is poised to fully realize its potential under a new era of energy dominance,” the group wrote, adding that its priorities are “essential to achieving this energy potential.”Heat has killed 137 workers nationwide since 2017 and hospitalized thousands more, according to an analysis of OSHA data by POLITICO’s E&E News. Construction and agriculture workers bear the brunt of heat injuries and fatalities, but people who extract fossil fuels in oil and gas fields, or those in support service jobs, also succumb to extreme temperatures. The fossil fuel industry accounts for 4 percent of heat-related deaths in the U.S. and nearly 7 percent of worker hospitalizations, according to federal data.That makes the industry the third-highest sector for hospitalizations from heat and among the top five for heat-related deaths. Workers have fallen ill or died while operating oil and gas drilling rigs, installing pipes, and delivering odorants.Strenuous activity can amplify the dangers of high temperatures, leading to kidney damage, heat exhaustion and heat stroke, a condition that results in organ failure and death in a matter of minutes.The string of record-breaking temperatures year after year foreshadows what could be a deadly summer, as climate change fueled by the combustion of fossil fuels turbocharges heat waves around the world. Texas has already sweltered under 100-degree heat, a record for May, and the rest of the nation is on track to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures.OSHA cited the death toll from heat, and the role of climate change in causing them, when it proposed the protections in July. They cover some 35 million people.Many of the rules’ requirements mirror recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since the 1970s.Now the rule is in the hands of the Trump administration, which has launched a concerted effort to terminate government climate offices, repeal regulations for lowering greenhouse gases and roll back billions of dollars in climate funding. President Donald Trump rejects the basic tenets of climate science.One of the first signs of whether the rule might survive will come in June, when OSHA officials are scheduled to hold a hearing to collect public comment on the proposal.API spokesperson Charlotte Law declined to answer questions about heat illness rates in the oil and gas industry, saying in a statement, “we don’t have anything further to add beyond the memo.” The document takes issue with rest break requirements in the draft rule, saying it “unreasonably requires reduce work/exposure hours for experienced workers, potentially leading to operational difficulties with no clear safety improvement.”
Alaska drilling, mining could see a megabill comeback - House Republicans sacked two prominent Alaska drilling and mining provisions from their tax, energy and national security megabill just hours before it cleared the chamber, but a top GOP lawmakers has hopes the Senate will add them back in.The two provisions cut from H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” would have facilitated approval of the Ambler mining access road and ramped up drilling in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve. They are long-sought priorities for Republicans, and their fate on the cutting room floor came as a surprise.House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), however, said the provisions were removed over procedural concerns relating to the budget reconciliation process. “These provisions were addressed in the manager’s amendment out of an abundance of caution as part of the nuanced reconciliation process,” Westerman said in an email.
MPL Names New CEO Amid Questions on Viability of Mexico LNG Projects - Mexico Pacific Ltd. (MPL) has appointed Manuela “Nelly” Molina as CEO to lead the way on its 15 million ton/year Saguaro EnergÃa export project planned for Puerto Libertad in Sonora, Mexico. Sections of a map of Mexico showing key natural gas pricing points, power infrastructure and pipelines for market use. Molina has 25 years of experience in the energy sector in the United States and Mexico, including with Sempra, the company that is in the final construction stages on an export facility in Mexico known as EnergÃa Costa Azul (ECA). “Nelly Molina will focus on the next phase of the Mexico Pacific project, its growth and consolidation for a successful execution,” according to a company statement. Related Tags
Latin America LNG Prices Steady as Argentina Slowing Import Needs — June delivered ex-ship (DES) prices to LNG import terminals in Latin America have been relatively flat recently despite ongoing tariff talks between the United States and its trading partners. Chart showing delivered ex-ship LNG prices specific to the Latin American LNG market. June DES prices to the Bahia Blanca terminal in Argentina were $11.85/MMBtu on Tuesday (May 28), up slightly on the day but flat compared to the same day last week. DES prices at the Pecém terminal in Brazil were $11.67 on Tuesday, and prices on Mexico’s West Coast at Manzanillo were $11.87. DES prices are NGI’s cost-plus formulations based on natural gas benchmark prices from the supplying country, such as the United States or Trinidad and Tobago. They also factor in shipping costs to Latin America. More than half of LNG imports into Latin America currently come from the United States, according to Kpler data. Some volumes to Latin America are also re-routed from Europe.
North Sea Oil Producer Slams The UK's Windfall Tax --The boss of Enquest has slammed the windfall tax on oil and gas firms as doing “irreversible damage” to the industry and “driving job losses across the sector”. Amjad Bseisu, Enquest’s chief executive, called for the North Sea tax to be scrapped in an operations update on Tuesday after claiming it makes the UK a less attractive place to invest.The UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) was introduced in May 2022 and applies to oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea.It is designed to tax the extra profits these companies made due to surging energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Initially, the rate was 25 per cent, but it later jumped to 35 per cent in January 2023.The tax has been extended by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to run until March 2030, but has a “price floor” mechanism, which allows it to end early if prices fall significantly.London-listed company Harbour Energy slammed the government’s “punitive fiscal position” earlier this month as it axed 250 jobs in Aberdeen.Bseisu argued: “The recent stepdown in commodity prices has further amplified calls for the UK government to remove the Energy Profits Levy and return the North Sea to a position of global competitiveness.”
TTF Loses Momentum After Trump Delays EU Tariffs — President Trump said new tariffs on the European Union (EU) would be delayed until July 9 after a weekend phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Trump had threatened to impose a 50% tariff rate on EU goods within days. The July Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract gave up 8 cents on Tuesday to finish at $12.32/MMBtu. TTF has gained over the past four weeks as the trade war has introduced another element of uncertainty to the market and peace between Russia and Ukraine has proved elusive.
Europe’s Reliance on LNG Increases Henry Hub Influence Over Market, EU Regulators Report -Henry Hub prices are set to play an outsized role in Europe’s long-term and spot LNG trades through the decade as buyers continue to rely on U.S. natural gas volumes, according to a review from European Union (EU) regulators. Chart showing U.S. LNG prices compared to European LNG prices when cargoes have arrived. Expand Last year, LNG imports made up about 40% of EU gas supply, up from 23% in 2020. The majority of Europe’s LNG supply continued to come from the United States. In its latest market analysis, the bloc’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) noted that the EU’s reliance on spot LNG to shore up gas supplies is increasing U.S. benchmark Henry Hub’s influence on the regional market.
Global LNG exports rise 3.1% in 1st quarter on soaring EU demand - Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increased by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching approximately 109.3 million tons, according to a report from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). "The Liquefied Natural Gas Quarterly Report" by OAPEC showed that the rise in LNG demand was driven by several factors, including colder-than-usual winter temperatures in Europe, the complete suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in January 2025, and Egypt's limited domestic production failing to meet its internal demand. In the first quarter, LNG exports from the US rose 14.8% to 26.6 million tons compared to the same period last year. Qatar's exports increased by 5.8% to 21.9 million tons, while Australia saw a 5.9% decline to 19.3 million tons. Russia, the world's fourth-largest LNG supplier, recorded its first export decline since the start of the war with Ukraine in February 2022. The country's LNG exports fell by 4.6% to 8.3 million tons due to the shutdown of two liquefaction plants. The report revealed that global LNG imports in the first quarter rose 3.2% year-on-year to approximately 110.5 million tons, mainly driven by higher demand from Europe and Egypt. Asia remained the top destination for LNG with 67.9 million tons imported, though this marked a 5.7% drop compared to the same period last year. A total of 51.4 million tons was shipped to China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. China's LNG imports fell significantly, down 20% year-on-year to 15.8 million tons in the first quarter. China's LNG imports from the US declined significantly in the first quarter, mainly as a result of US-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and reciprocal measures taken by Beijing. While China imported 4.16 million tons of LNG from the US in the first quarter of 2024, the volume dropped to just 260,000 tons in the same period this year. In January, China imported 194,200 tons, followed by around 66,000 tons in February, and recorded no imports at all in March. LNG imports in Europe, including Türkiye and the UK, jumped 23.8% year-on-year to about 36.8 million tons in the first quarter. The surge was attributed to colder-than-average temperatures and the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies through Ukraine. In terms of supplier shares within Europe's LNG portfolio, the US led with a 51.2% share, followed by Russia at 17.7%, Qatar at 10%, Nigeria at 6.2%, Algeria at 4.2%, Norway at 3.2%, and other countries at 7.2%. LNG imports by North and South America declined by 20% to 3.2 million tons, while the Middle East's imports more than doubled, increasing by 117% to 2.6 million tons. Indonesia, Angola, the US, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, the UAE, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, and Oman were among the countries that increased their LNG exports in the first quarter compared to last year. The US stood out as the top LNG exporter with 26.4 million tons, while Indonesia recorded the highest percentage growth in exports during this period.
Libya At Risk Of Declaring Force Majeure On Oil Production After Militia Attacks - Libya's eastern government has warned of potential disruptions to oil production and exports following an attack by a Tripoli-based militia on the state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC) headquarters. The threat of a force majeure declaration reintroduces the possibility of a geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude markets already contending with oversupply concerns. "Repeated attacks" on the NOC and its affiliates may prompt "precautionary measures, including declaring force majeure on oil fields and terminals," or relocating the company's headquarters to a "safer city," Libya's eastern government said in a statement quoted by Bloomberg. The crisis reflects deepening tensions between Libya's rival governments—one in the west led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and another in the east backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar. Libya produces 1.3 million barrels per day, most of which is exported across the Mediterranean and European markets. Any curtailment of exports could immediately tighten global supply in the region.
Oil trades lower as OPEC+ meeting looms -Oil prices eased during Asian trading on Tuesday, as investors held off on major moves ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting that could shape the trajectory of global supply. Market activity remained subdued following public holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom on Monday. As of 3:05 AEST (5:05 am GMT), Brent crude futures had edged down $0.18, or 0.3%, to US$64.56 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.25, or 0.4%, to US$61.28 per barrel. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are reportedly considering another production increase at their upcoming meeting, which could influence prices in the near term. One option under review includes a supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, though no final decision has been reached. OPEC+ is currently in the process of gradually unwinding its output cuts, with phased additions to global markets in May and June. ANZ analysts noted: "Any data showing a continued lack of adherence to production quotas will strengthen the resolve of Saudi Arabia to punish those members who refuse to cut their output. "The meeting of the OPEC+ alliance, including the eight members who instigated a voluntary cut of 2.2mb/d, will be held on 31 May." Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump commented on Russia’s latest actions in Ukraine. Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said Monday that he had "gone absolutely CRAZY" following a large-scale aerial assault on Ukraine. “I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia! Likewise, President Zelenskyy is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does,” Trump said in a social media post.
The Oil Market Traded Lower Ahead of the OPEC+ Meeting - The oil market traded lower on Tuesday ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week, while easing trade tensions provided some support to the market. The crude market traded higher and posted a high of $62.14 during Monday’s shortened trading session in observance for the Memorial Day holiday. The market was supported following President Donald Trump’s decision to extend trade talks with the European Union until July 9th, alleviating fears of tariffs that could cut fuel demand. However, the market traded mostly sideways before it sold off on Tuesday on expectations that OPEC+ will likely agree to a further accelerated oil output increase for July during a meeting scheduled for Saturday. The market posted a low of $60.26 by mid-day. The oil market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The July WTI contract ended the session down 64 cents at $60.89 and the July Brent contract ended down 65 cents at $64.09. The product markets settled in negative territory, with the June heating oil contract settling down 2.54 cents at $2.0794 and the RB market settling down 3.77 cents at $2.0715. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ has not discussed yet increasing output by another 411,000 bpd ahead of its meeting. OPEC+ will hold an online ministerial meeting on May 28th. He said he expected them to discuss current market situation, forecasts and some “adjustments”. There will also be a separate meeting of eight OPEC+ countries, which had pledged extra voluntary oil output cuts. They will convene on May 31, a day earlier than planned. The meeting will likely decide on July output, which sources have previously said will be another 411,000 bpd production increase. Separately, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said that the G7 and European Union plan to lower the price cap for the Russian oil to $50/barrel from the current level of $60/barrel were unacceptable and that the restrictions have failed to cut Russian oil exports. Three delegates said OPEC+ is likely to agree to a further accelerated oil output increase for July this week, in the latest stage of a plan to meet rising demand and increase market share. The sources said that when OPEC+ meets on Wednesday to review the market, it is not expected to change policy. However, they said they expected an output hike to be agreed for July when the eight OPEC+ members meet on Saturday. Three OPEC+ sources said the eight members at their meeting on Saturday may decide on a similar 411,000 bpd output hike for July. United Arab Emirates Energy Minister, Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, said the OPEC+ oil producer group is doing its best to balance the market but needs to be mindful of rising demand. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to an extension on the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union until July 9th. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the EU’s move to set up trade meetings was positive and that he hoped Europe would “open up” to trade with the U.S.
Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled 1% lower on Tuesday as investors worried about a supply glut after Iranian and U.S. delegations made progress in their talks and on expectations that OPEC+ will decide to increase output at a meeting this week. Brent crude futures closed down 65 cents, or 1%, at $64.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 64 cents, or around 1.04%, to $60.89 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is not expected to change policy at a meeting on Wednesday. However, another meeting on Saturday is likely to agree to a further accelerated oil output hike for July, three delegates from the group told Reuters. Meanwhile, Iranian and U.S. delegations wrapped up a fifth round of talks in Rome last week. While signs of limited progress emerged, there were many points of disagreement that were hard to breach, notably the issue of Iran's uranium enrichment. "OPEC+ also meets next week where they will likely agree on further output increases, which, if it occurs, will be a major near-term headwind for crude, especially if Iran adds barrels in the possible (U.S.) deal," If nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran fail, it could mean continued sanctions on Iran, which would limit Iranian oil supply, while any resolution could add Iranian supply to the market. Also on the supply side, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll found on Tuesday. Supporting prices, U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to extend trade talks with the European Union until July 9 alleviated immediate fears of tariffs that could suppress fuel demand. Wall Street rose on Trump's trade reprieve. Easing trade concerns were supportive, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that upside to prices remains limited until it is clear what OPEC+ will decide on Saturday. Also helping prices, a wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta prompted the temporary shutdown of some oil and gas production.
Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Bearish Oil Outlook Despite Rising Demand - Goldman Sachs analysts issued yet another update to their oil price forecast, reiterating expectations of weaker prices this year and next, on the back of substantial growth in non-OPEC supply—excluding U.S. shale.In a note, the analysts said “oil production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale top projects will likely accelerate to 1MB/d over the next two years”, adding that natural gas liquids production was also set for a rise over the period, thanks to the launch of new projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The exclusion of U.S. shale from the prediction for non-OPEC output growth is quite significant, seeing as non-OPEC production forecasts normally focus on U.S. shale. Yet with prices depressed, producers in the shale patch have begun to retrench, and production growth is already slowing down.Indeed, Goldman’s analysts said that if prices remained subdued over the next two years, the peak in U.S. shale production growth could come earlier than previously expected. There is, however, a possibility that Goldman Sachs analysts are overestimating the supply situation: UBS said in an update that global visible oil inventories over the first quarter pointed to a tightly balanced market - not the substantial surplus Goldman and others have assumed, Kpler’s Amena Bakr wrote on X earlier today. The Swiss bank said it expected revisions in both supply and demand projections on the basis of the new data. Goldman has a 2025 price forecast of $60 per barrel forBrent crude and $56 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Goldman’s analysts expect the benchmarks to fall further next year, to $56 for Brent crude and $52 for WTI. The forecast has not been revised upwards despite a revision in demand projections, with the bank now expecting stronger demand growth this year, at 600,000 barrels daily, and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026.
Oil prices fall as market awaits OPEC+ meeting - Oil prices decreased on Wednesday ahead of two OPEC+ meetings scheduled this week, however, the US' decision to prohibit Chevron from operating in Venezuela raised supply concerns, limiting price falls. International benchmark Brent crude declined by around 0.3%, trading at $63.58 per barrel at 11.37 am local time (0837 GMT), down from $63.75 at the previous session's close. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by about 0.2%, settling at $60.76 per barrel, compared to $60.89 in the prior session. The slight decline in prices was influenced by expectations that eight member countries of the OPEC+ group—which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers—will increase production during Saturday's meeting. This scenario is deepening concerns over a potential supply surplus in markets where weak demand remains a prevailing worry. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman had begun a gradual easing of their voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) as of April. In May, the eight countries implemented a production increase of 411,000 bpd, equivalent to a three-month rise, and announced a similar increase for June. Meanwhile, reports that the US has prohibited Chevron from operating in Venezuela limited further price falls by fueling concerns about supply disruptions. According to international media outlets, the US government issued Chevron a restricted license that allows only infrastructure and equipment maintenance to preserve its assets in Venezuela. The company will not be permitted to engage in activities such as oil production and exports. Chevron's license that had allowed oil production and exports in Venezuela expired on Tuesday. By Duygu Alhan
OPEC+ holds oil quotas ahead of July production review -- OPEC+ countries on Wednesday agreed to leave their formal output quotas unchanged, with market focus shifting toward potential increases from an eight-member subset of the alliance that had been carrying out separate voluntary production cuts. The OPEC+ coalition has been operating a group-wide production agreement, along with two output cuts that are only informally tackled by an eight-member subset of the organization. Under formal policy, the entire OPEC+ group is cutting roughly 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. On Wednesday, OPEC+ nations said they agreed to "reaffirm the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries" as agreed during the alliance's December meeting. Oil prices rose shortly after the ending of the OPEC+ meeting. The Ice Brent contract with July expiry closed at $64.90 per barrel, up 81 cents or 1.26%. Front-month July Nymex WTI futures settled at $61.84 per barrel, up 1.56% or 95 cents. Separate from formal policy, OPEC+ heavyweight Russia and Saudi Arabia, alongside Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, are also trimming production by 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of next year, under one opt-in agreement. Until the end of March, these eight members also implemented a second combined 2.2 million-barrel-per day voluntary production decline, which they have begun to gradually unwind in the months since. As of the latest announcements, these nations are set to bring back a combined roughly 1 million barrels per day of their previously cut volumes over April-June and will be assessing further production steps for July output over the weekend. One OPEC+ delegate, who could only comment anonymously because of the sensitivity of the talks, told CNBC that another production increase in July was likely, with a second delegate noting that the prospective hike agreed over the weekend could be as sharp as another 411,000 barrels per day — the same amount by which output is set to rise in each of May and June. The timing of these hikes has coincided with increasing concern within the OPEC+ group that some members — which have in the past included the likes of Kazakhstan, Iraq and Russia — were not respecting their production quotas. "This group is doing its best, but it's not enough only this group, we need the help of others," UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said Tuesday in a World Utilities Congress panel moderated by CNBC's Dan Murphy. On Wednesday, OPEC+ nations called on the OPEC Secretariat to assess each country's sustainable production capacity to determine their baselines for 2027 — levels used to calculate coalition members' output quotas under OPEC+ agreements. OPEC+ members will next hold a ministerial meeting on Nov. 30. Oil demand typically spikes during the summer with the start of the travel season and additional crude burn to produce electricity for air conditioning needs in several Middle Eastern countries. In a note out earlier this week, UBS Strategist Giovanni Staunovo flagged a "closely balanced oil market" in the first quarter of this year, compared with a vast projected supply surplus. "We expect further demand and supply revisions with more incoming data," Staunovo said. "With demand seasonally rising and the eight OPEC+ member states with additional voluntary cuts likely still adding more barrels to the market in July, we look for oil prices to move sideways in a USD 60-70/bbl range over the coming months." The UAE's al-Mazrouei echoed this sentiment, flagging, "We need to be mindful of the demand. Demand is picking up. And demand is going to surprise us, if we're not investing enough."
Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July OPEC+ output decision (Reuters) -Oil prices gained more than 1% on Wednesday on supply concerns as OPEC+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged and as the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude. Investors previously anticipated members of OPEC+ would agree to a production increase later this week. Brent crude futures settled up 81 cents, or 1.26%, to $64.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 95 cents, or 1.56%, to stand at $61.84 a barrel. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, did not change output policy. It agreed to establish a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 oil production. Most oil-producing countries at the meeting do not have flexibility to adjust their output, "They were hoping to slow the pace of production increases and stop the slide in price. But that's not the way it panned out," A separate meeting on Saturday of eight OPEC+ countries is expected to decide on an increase in oil output for July. Goldman Sachs analysts saw the group of eight keeping production steady after the July hike. "However, we see the risks to our OPEC8+ supply path as skewed to the upside, especially if compliance doesn't improve or if hard demand data surprise further to the upside," they added. Coming demand for the summer driving season is significant, and with non-OPEC+ crude output flat in the first half of the year, coupled with risks of Canadian wildfires hurting supply, the call on crude is stronger from OPEC+, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil commodity markets analysis at Rystad Energy. On Wednesday, Chevron terminated the oil production, service and procurement contracts it had to operate in Venezuela, but it plans to retain its direct staff in the country, sources said. Both benchmarks ticked up in the previous session on concerns of tighter supply after the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela under a new authorization on its assets there. Analysts also said prices could respond positively if there was progress on global trade talks or resolving U.S.-Iranian friction. Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said on Wednesday it might allow the U.N. nuclear watchdog to send U.S. inspectors to visit nuclear sites if Tehran's talks with Washington succeed. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.24 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Market participants now await government data on crude inventories due Thursday.
Oil prices up as US court blocks Trump tariffs --Oil prices edged higher on Thursday after US court blocked President Donald Trump from imposing sweeping global tariffs on imports. International benchmark Brent crude increased by around 1.62%, trading at $65.36 per barrel at 11.37 am local time (0837 GMT), up from $64.32 at the previous session's close. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by about 1.69%, settling at $62.69 per barrel, compared to $61.65 in the prior session. The US Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that President Donald Trump overstepped his authority and blocked him from imposing sweeping global tariffs on imports, according to media reports. The three-judge panel ruled in favor of a permanent injunction to Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, which he implemented on April 2 without Congressional approval by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling boosted risk appetite in global markets. The court's decision has added another layer of uncertainty to the future of Trump's tariff policy, particularly with the early-July deadline for enforcement approaching. On the supply side, markets remain focused on the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil. Trump warned on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "playing with fire," as Moscow continues its strikes on Ukraine. This comes after international media reported earlier in the week that Trump is considering fresh sanctions on Russia amid rising tensions over continued attacks in Ukraine and stalled peace negotiations. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wednesday that Moscow would announce a new round of negotiations with Ukraine "in the very near future." The last round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine was held in Istanbul on May 16, under Türkiye's mediation. Moreover, eight member countries of the OPEC+ group—which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers— could decide to increase production during their meeting on Saturday. This scenario deepens concerns about a potential supply surplus, particularly as weak demand continues to dominate market sentiment. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman had begun a gradual easing of their voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) as of April. In May, the eight countries implemented a production increase of 411,000 bpd, equivalent to a three-month rise, and announced a similar increase for June.
WTI 'Off The Lows' After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws, Diesel Stocks Lowest In 20 Years - Oil prices are dumping this morning, after overnight gains following API's reported big crude draw as soft US economic data and concerns about rising supplies eroded the risk-on sentiment from a court ruling that blocked a swath of the Trump admin’s tariffs. Crude had earlier rallied as much as 2% after a trade court blocked a vast range of President Donald Trump’s trade levies. “The path to sustainably higher prices remains extremely narrow,” with the market likely to struggle to absorb additional barrels from OPEC+ over the coming months, . In the near term, algorithmic selling activity will weigh on prices into the weekend meeting, he added. Will the official data confirm API's bid draw and rejuvenate the rebound? API
- Crude -4.24mm
- Cushing -342k
- Gasoline -528k
- Distillates +1.3mm
DOE
- Crude -2.795mm
- Cushing +75k
- Gasoline -2.44mm
- Distillates -2.795mm
The official data showed across the board drawdowns in inventories for crude and products. The Cushing hub saw a teeny tiny build in stocks... Graphs Source: Bloomberg Even including the 820k barrels added to the SPR, total crude stocks fell 1.975mm barrels - the biggest draw in two months Distillate stocks plunged to their lowest since May 2005... While the US rig count continues to slump (drill,m baby, drill?) US crude production hovers near record highs... Crude prices are 'off the lows' of the day on the official inventory data, but still down on the day...
Oil prices fall as investors assess US court ruling on Trump tariffs (Reuters) - Oil prices fell over 1% on Thursday, retreating from earlier gains, as investors weighed the potential effects of a U.S. court ruling that blocked the most sweeping of President Donald Trump's tariffs. The market also watched for potential new U.S. sanctions curbing Russian crude flows and an OPEC+ decision on hiking output in July. Brent crude futures settled down 75 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.15 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 90 cents, or 1.5%, to $60.94 a barrel. Prices had earlier risen after a U.S. court on Wednesday ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners. The court was not asked to address some industry-specific tariffs Trump has issued on automobiles, steel and aluminium using a different statute. Futures steadily retreated throughout the session, however, as senior Trump administration officials downplayed the impact of the ruling and insisted there are other legal avenues to employ. "The initial market reaction to the U.S. trade court's Trump reciprocal tariffs dissipated appreciably as the session progressed," "One interpretation of this response could be that not much has changed and that the uncertainty surrounding the Trump tariffs from day one will continue as the tariffs work their way through the court system and several sectoral tariffs such as autos and auto parts remain intact." Weighing on oil futures on Thursday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg that demand for oil was considerably weak in China and developments in Russia and Iran were "question marks" for oil prices. The U.S. and Iran are holding talks meant to rein in Iranian nuclear activities that have rapidly accelerated since Trump pulled Washington out of a 2015 deal between Iran and major powers that strictly limited those activities. "We've seen a lot of back and forth concerns about the Iran situation, whether we’re getting closer to a conflict or a peace deal," On the oil supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, could agree on Saturday to accelerate oil production hikes in July. "We're assuming the group will agree on another large supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day. We expect similar increases through until the end of the third quarter, as the group increases its focus on defending market share," ING analysts said in a note. However, there are also concerns about potential new sanctions on Russian crude. Adding to supply risks, Chevron has terminated its oil production and a number of other activities in Venezuela, after its key license was revoked by the Trump administration in March. Venezuela in April cancelled cargoes scheduled to Chevron, citing payment uncertainties related to U.S. sanctions. Chevron was exporting 290,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil, or over a third of the country's total, before that. Oil futures on Thursday pared some losses after Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude inventories posted a surprise draw in the latest week, falling by 2.8 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 118,000-barrel rise. In Canada, a wildfire in the province of Alberta has forced residents of a small town to evacuate and prompted a temporary shutdown of some oil and gas production, which could reduce supply.
Oil prices rise on higher US demand, OPEC+ and tariff risks weigh on outlook --Oil prices increased on Friday, supported by data showing an unexpected drop in US crude stockpiles, however, gains were capped by expectations of a potential production hike from the OPEC+ group in July and uncertainty stemming from a court ruling that upheld tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. International benchmark Brent crude increased by around 0.5%, trading at $63.56 per barrel at 11.34 am local time (0834 GMT), up from $63.26 at the previous session's close. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by about 0.6%, reaching $60.92 per barrel, compared to $60.57 in the prior session. According to data released late Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US commercial crude oil inventories fell by approximately 2.8 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ending May 23. This was in stark contrast to market expectations of a 1 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories also declined by around 2.4 million barrels to 223.1 million barrels over the same period, signaling robust demand in the US—the world's largest oil consumer. Despite strong demand signals, expectations that eight members of the OPEC+ alliance may announce a new production hike at their meeting on Saturday limited further price increases. Analysts note that the groundwork has already been laid for such a move and suggest that the new increase could surpass the previously agreed daily hike of 411,000 barrels from the last two meetings. Meanwhile, in the US, a court on Thursday reinstated Trump's tariffs, reversing a decision made a day earlier by the US Court of International Trade that had blocked the broad-based measures. The initial ruling had triggered a more than 1% drop in oil prices. Since Trump announced the so-called "Independence Day" tariffs on April 2, oil prices have declined by over 10%. As investors digest the implications of the court's decision, analysts warn that market uncertainty driven by the ongoing tariff dispute is likely to persist. On the demand side, recession fears fueled by the trade war are weighing on the global economic outlook. In addition to heightened US-China tensions, Washington has imposed new restrictions requiring many companies to obtain licenses to export certain goods to China, while also revoking existing licenses for specific suppliers.
Oil finishes down on possible OPEC+ output hike (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Friday as traders expected OPEC+ would decide on Saturday to boost oil output for July beyond previous forecasts. Brent crude futures settled down 25 cents, or 0.39%, at $63.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished The Brent July futures contract is due to expire on Friday. The more liquid August contract was down 71 cents, or 1.12%, at $62.64 a barrel. At these levels, the front-month benchmark contracts were headed for weekly losses over 1%. Prices dipped into negative territory after Reuters reported that OPEC+ may discuss an increase in July output larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) rise that the group decided on for May and June. "What OPEC+ is planning doesn't look particularly supportive for the oil market," The potential OPEC+ output hike comes as the global surplus has widened to 2.2 million bpd, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance, said JPMorgan analysts in a note, adding that they expected prices to remain within the current range before easing into the high $50s by year-end. . "Trump's Truth Social message on China failing to observe a truce on tariffs also combined with the Reuters headline to push prices down," Trump's tariffs were expected to remain in effect after a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them on Thursday, reversing a trade court's decision a day earlier to put an immediate block on the sweeping duties. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a fifth week in a row to the lowest since November 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. It was the first time since September 2023 that the number of rigs declined for five straight weeks. Baker Hughes said this week's decline put the total count down by 37 rigs, or 6%, from this time last year. Oil rigs fell by four to 461 this week, their lowest since November 2021, the company said. Gas rigs rose by one to 99.
OPEC+ members agree to 411,000 output rise in July - Eight OPEC+ nations — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — will boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, compared to June levels, as part of a plan to gradually unwind voluntary output cuts, the group said Saturday following a virtual meeting. Amid a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals reflected in low inventory levels, eight participating countries will raise output by 411,000 bpd in July, in line with the December 5, 2024 decision to gradually and flexibly unwind the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts that began on April 1, the group announced. The output hike corresponds to the cumulative volume of a planned three-month gradual increase. OPEC+ noted that the production rise could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The alliance is scheduled to reconvene on July 6 to decide on production levels for August.
Saudi Arabia Urges Iran to Reach Nuclear Deal With US or Risk Israeli Attack - Saudi Arabia’s defense minister informed Iranian officials that failure to strike a nuclear agreement with the US could prompt an Israeli attack, multiple sources told Reuters. Washington and Tehran have struggled to reach a new deal since President Donald Trump scrapped the last pact in 2018.The “covert message” was relayed by the Saudi defense chief, Prince Khalid bin Salman, during a visit to Iran in mid-April, Reuters reportedon Friday, citing two unnamed Iranian officials and two sources close to the government in Riyadh.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and armed forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri were all reportedly present for the meeting, which marked the first visit to Iran by a senior Saudi royal in nearly 30 years.According to the sources, bin Salman warned the Iranian leadership that US President Donald Trump had “little patience for drawn-out negotiations” and that the “window for diplomacy would close fast” if a deal was not reached “quickly.” He went on to raise “the possibility of an Israeli attack” should the talks break down, Reuters added.While the Fars News agency reported that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei had contested the Reuters story in comments to journalists later on Friday, the outlet provided no additional details.The prospect of Israeli military action against Iran has been raised repeatedly throughout the ongoing nuclear talks with the US, with American officials telling the New York Times that they are concerned Tel Aviv could launch an attack with little notice. Though a US intelligence assessment questioned whether a unilateral Israeli strike would be effective, some Israeli officials have argued that Washington “would have no choice but to assist Israel militarily if Iran counterattacked,” the Times reported.
Quarterly IAEA Report on Iran Fuels Another Round of Pro-Forma Media Panic - In late February, the IAEA released a quarterly report on Iran’s civilian nuclear program with predictable results. This weekend, the next quarterly report has dropped, and as last time, the media is in an absolute tizzy with panic about figures that should have been expected.As the AP noted, Iran has “even more near weapons-grade uranium” than it did before. Whether 60% enriched uranium is actually “near” weapons-grade, which is in excess of 90%, is hand-waved away as a technical issue. Iran has been enriching to 60% since 2021, and with US-fueled sanctions preventing them from exporting it for reprocessing, as the JCPOA was meant to allow, the number keeps increasing every time. Iran has never attempted to enrich to weapons-grade levels, and haspromised to remain at 60%.Last quarter Iran had added roughly 95 kg of 60% enriched uranium to the stockpile, and with more centrifuges installed since then, this quarter they added 133.8 kg. As with last quarter’s increase, it is being presented as getting closer to having a weapon, even though Iran has not attempted to enrich any of it beyond the 60% limit and has promised not to.On top of that, Reuters is reporting that the IAEA report brought up previously discovered traces of uranium at three sites. None of this is new, but it was termed a “damning” report, and Reuters suggested it would be an opportunity for the US and the three Western European members of the JCPOA, which again the US already dishonored years ago, to declare Iran in violation of their obligations over past acts.This comes at a time when the US and Iran are negotiating a possible new nuclear deal, and potentially provides a pretext for the US to move away from the talks or make even more unreasonable demands. Earlier this week President Trump already suggested the deal would require Iran to let the US “take whatever we want” and “blow up whatever we want,” so it’s not clear how much more demands they could add.
Trump Says New Iran Deal Must Allow US To 'Blow Up Whatever We Want' - President Donald Trump argued that any revived nuclear accord with Iran should permit the United States to destroy the country’s nuclear infrastructure and send inspectors to Iranian facilities at any time.The president outlined his vision for a new agreement during a White House presser on Wednesday, calling for a “very strong document” that would effectively give Washington carte blanche over Tehran’s nuclear energy program.“I want it very strong – where we can go in with inspectors, we can take whatever we want, we can blow up whatever we want, but [with] nobody getting killed,” he told reporters. “We can blow up a lab, but nobody is gonna be in the lab, as opposed to everybody being in the lab and blowing it up.”He did not elaborate on those remarks, however, leaving it unclear whether Washington had actually pushed for such major concessions at the negotiating table. The Islamic Republic would be unlikely to accept a deal under those terms.Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, later denounced Trump’s comments in a social media post, suggesting his proposal would cross Tehran’s “red lines.”“Efforts to reach Iran’s nuclear plants and ‘blow up their facilities’ have been a dream of previous US presidents,” he wrote. “Iran is an independent state with a strong defense structure, a resilient people, and clear red lines. Negotiations are a means to progress and preserve national interests and honor, not submission and surrender.”
Pope Leo XIV Renews Call for Gaza Ceasefire, Laments Israeli Killing of Palestinian Children - On Wednesday, Pope Leo XIV renewed his call for a ceasefire in Gaza and lamented the death of Palestinian children, who have been killed by Israeli forces in staggering numbers.“In the Gaza Strip, the intense cries are reaching Heaven more and more from mothers and fathers who hold tightly to the bodies of their dead children,” Leo said during his weekly general audience in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican.His comments came about a week after Gaza’s Health Ministrypublished a list of 16,506 children killed by the Israeli military inGaza since October 7, 2023. The list includes 917 babies who didn’t make it to their first birthdays.Leo, the first US-born pontiff, also noted the forced displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, saying they are “constantly forced to move in search of some food and safer shelter from the bombardment.”“To those responsible, I renew my appeal. Stop the fighting, liberate all the hostages, and completely respect humanitarian law,” he added.The pope also renewed his call for peace in Ukraine, saying that his thoughts often turn to “the Ukrainian people affected by new serious attacks against civilians and infrastructure.”Leo said he reiterated his “appeal to stop the war and to support every initiative of dialogue and peace” and invited Catholics to join “in prayer for peace in Ukraine and wherever there is suffering because of war.”Since being elected on May 8, Leo has repeatedly called for peace in Gaza, Ukraine, and other conflict zones around the world, and has put a focus on the issue of war.“War is never inevitable. Weapons can and must fall silent, for they never solve problems but only intensify them,” the pontiff wrote on X on May 14. “Those who sow peace will endure throughout history, not those who reap victims. Others are not enemies to hate but human beings with whom to speak.”
Israeli military unveils plan to internally displace entire remaining population of Gaza --On Sunday, the Israeli military announced a plan to occupy three-quarters of the Gaza Strip. The entire remaining Palestinian population, estimated at around 2 million people, would be forced into an area of just 35 square miles. The plan is the practical implementation of “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described as the “concluding moves” of the onslaught in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it currently controls 44 percent of the Gaza Strip and plans to expand that control to 75 percent within two months. The IDF announced plans to establish three “humanitarian zones”—i.e., concentration camps—located along the southern coast, in Gaza City in the north and near Nuseirat in central Gaza. The IDF stated that its operational focus will shift from targeting individual Hamas fighters to seizing territory and forcibly displacing the Palestinian population. In a statement on the mass displacement plan, the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor wrote: Israeli forces have issued at least 35 evacuation orders in the Gaza Strip since January of this year, affecting over one million people. These orders compound the harm caused by those issued prior to January, which had already resulted in much of the population being displaced. Israel is now intensifying efforts to confine residents to a narrow area along the southern coast—an apparent prelude to expulsion from the Strip, in line with the “Trump Plan” recently adopted by Netanyahu as a condition for ending military operations in the enclave. This weekend’s announcement by the IDF coincides with the launch of the US-Israeli “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation,” which is set to begin distributing food and humanitarian supplies on Monday. International humanitarian aid agencies have condemned the organization, which the US and Israel aim to use to replace the existing humanitarian network by distributing starvation rations to pre-vetted individuals using facial recognition technology. The total occupation of Gaza, the transfer of the population to concentration camps and the monopolization of food distribution by the US and Israeli militaries is the essential prelude to their plan for the forcible displacement of the remaining Palestinian population. On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly said for the first time that the displacement of the Palestinian population from Gaza is an official objective of Israel’s war effort. Israel, Netanyahu declared in a press conference, “is ready to end the war, under clear conditions that … we carry out the Trump plan. A plan that is so correct and so revolutionary.” In February, US President Trump declared, “The US will take over the Gaza Strip. ... We’ll own it.” He said the US will “level it out” and that other countries will “build various domains that will ultimately be occupied by the 1.8 million Palestinians living in Gaza.” Last week, NBC News reported that the United States is in negotiations with Syria and Libya, whose governments it helped to overthrow in Islamist insurgencies, to accept the Palestinian people who are being displaced from Gaza. Earlier this month, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich spelled out the government’s plan: Within a year, Gaza will be completely destroyed, civilians will be pushed into a “humanitarian zone” in the south, and from there, they will begin leaving en masse for third countries. In a report published Saturday, the Washington Post explained that the so-called “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” was created by a “group of former US intelligence and defense officials and business executives, working in close consultation with Israel.” According to the Post, it will hire armed private contractors to provide logistics and security for a handful of aid distribution hubs to be built in southern Gaza. Under the arrangement, which would replace existing aid distribution networks coordinated by the United Nations, Palestinian civilians would have to travel to the hubs and submit to identity checks to receive rations from nongovernmental organizations. The Post reported on internal planning documents by the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” that anticipated its operations being compared to “concentration camps with biometrics” or being similar to “Blackwater, a former US mercenary firm implicated in violence against civilians in Iraq.”Gaza’s entire remaining population is on the brink of famine, after Israel blocked nearly all food, fuel and electricity from entering the enclave since March.
Israeli Military Says It Will Occupy 75% of Gaza Within Two Months, 'Concentrate' the Civilian Population - -The Israeli military expects that it will occupy 75% of Gaza’s territorywithin two months and plans to “concentrate” the entire civilian population into three small areas in the Strip.According to Israeli media, Palestinian civilians will be confined to the center of Gaza City, a strip of land in central Gaza’s Deir el-Balah and Nuseirat, and an area in al-Mawasi on the coast in southern Gaza.The IDF said the purpose of the offensive is to destroy Hamas infrastructure, although previous reports have said the plan is to destroy every remaining building in Gaza.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already made clear that Israel’s goal was the full military occupation of Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of the territory, which he calls the “Trump plan,” although it’s unclear where the Palestinian population could go.The IDF announcement about its offensive comes as a new US and Israeli-backed aid scheme is expected to be launched in Gaza, but there are conflicting reports about when it will actually start. According toHaaretz, the aid distribution, which will involve private American security contractors, will start Monday, although other Israeli media reports say it has been postponed.The aid scheme has been rejected by the UN and other aid agencies that operate in Gaza, and it has been condemned as a transparent effort to forcibly displace starving Palestinian civilians into concentration camps. Amid the criticism, Jake Wood, the CEO of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which was created for the US-Israeli aid plan, announced his resignation.“The aid program cannot be implemented while adhering to humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, fairness, and independence – principles I will not abandon,” Wood said. He called on Israel to “significantly expand aid delivery to Gaza through all possible means.”
Israeli troops massacre 10 aid-seekers in two days as Netanyahu says food distribution plan aims to create “sterile zone” -- At least ten Palestinians desperately seeking food at distribution centers have been killed over the past two days, after Israeli troops opened fire on aid-seekers for a second day in a row Wednesday. As hundreds of thousands of people queued up in a desperate attempt to receive food Wednesday, an Associated Press (AP) journalist reported hearing an Israeli tank and soldiers open fire, while the Israeli military admitted firing “warning shots.” The massacres took place at distribution centers set up by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a project backed by Israel and the United States that seeks to displace Gaza’s established humanitarian organizations and gain control over the distribution of starvation rations to the Palestinian population. The massacre of aid-seekers for a second day in a row confirms the warnings by the United Nations, Oxfam, and other humanitarian organizations that the US-Israeli aid distribution scheme is nothing more than a logistical component of Israel’s ethnic cleansing program. The US and Israel have sought to present the creation of the GHF as an independent humanitarian organization aimed at feeding the starving population of Gaza. In reality, it is the logistical component of “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” the ongoing Israel Defense Forces (IDF) offensive to completely conquer Gaza and transfer its remaining population to concentration camps in preparation for their forcible displacement from the enclave. The GHF uses US military logistics suppliers for distribution and is guarded by US military contractors. It is unclear whether US contractors joined Israeli troops in opening fire on the aid seekers on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the GHF is part of a plan to create “a sterile zone in the South of Gaza, where the entire population can move for its own protection.” In a tweet on Wednesday, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s former Minister of Finance, made clear that the GHF is financed by the Israeli intelligence forces and the military. “The money for humanitarian aid comes from the Mossad and the Ministry of Defense. Hundreds of millions of dollars at the expense of Israeli citizens,” Lieberman said. Footage from one of the distribution centers near Rafah showed aid-seekers penned into cage-like structures, where they had to submit to biometric scans before receiving rations. In a statement, Gaza’s Government Media Office said Israeli forces “opened direct fire on hungry Palestinian civilians who had gathered to receive aid” at a distribution site in southern Gaza, wounding at least 62 people. “These locations were transformed into death traps under the occupation’s gunfire,” the government media office said.
Sorry If This Is Antisemitic But I Think It's Wrong To Burn Children Alive - Caitlin Johnstone: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix - Israel is burning children alive in Gaza. And call me an antisemitic Jew-hating Nazi terrorist lover if you must, but I happen to believe that’s wrong. Now that it’s been made clear that Israel’s goal in Gaza is the complete ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians, Israel apologists have been shifting from bleating about hostages and Hamas to arguing that ethnic cleansing is actually fine and good. Which makes sense; that’s really the only argument they can make at this point. Never forget that the US Congress gave Netanyahu dozens of standing ovations during a single speech while he was in the middle of perpetrating history’s first live-streamed genocide. This is who they are. It will always be who they are. Israel has done more to promote hatred toward Jews in the last year and a half than Stormfront has in its entire existence. No white supremacist propaganda will ever be as effective at spreading hatred against Jews as openly mass murdering children under a Star of David flag. Support for Israel used to be the overwhelmingly dominant opinion in the western world. Luckily that’s changing, but the fact that this was the case until Israel exposed itself shows you really can’t just go along with majority opinion on any issue. You need to think for yourself. Ignore what the crowd says. Ignore people who scream at you for disagreeing with their position. Look at the raw facts as free from your own cognitive biases as you are able, and have the courage to stand on your own if necessary.Gaza is such an easy moral issue to get right that there’s no way anyone who gets it wrong isn’t a shitty person in other areas of their life as well. I feel sorry for anyone who has interpersonal relationships with Israel supporters, because they’d suck to be around. World Food Programme director Cindy McCain is saying that she’s seen no evidence of Hamas stealing aid entering Gaza. Israel’s one and only argument for continuing to block aid to Gaza is being publicly debunked by a member of one of the most pro-Israel families in US politics. The US has reportedly delivered some 90,000 tons of weapons to Israel since October 2023. I mostly focus on the Gaza genocide these days, but sometimes figures like this make me zoom out a few clicks and think about how bat shit insane our civilization is as a whole. Just think how much good we could do in the world if we weren’t pouring resources into evil shit like this.
Israel Approves Biggest West Bank Settlement Expansion in Over 30 Years --Israel has approved the establishment of 22 Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank as it continues its policy of the de facto annexation of the Palestinian territory.Peace Now, an Israeli settlement watchdog, said the approval marks the biggest expansion of settlements in the West Bank in more than 30 years since the Oslo Accords were signed in 1993.“The Israeli government no longer pretends otherwise: the annexation of the Occupied Territories and expansion of settlements is its central goal,” Peace Now said in a statement “The cabinet’s decision to establish 22 new settlements—the most extensive move of its kind since the Oslo Accords, under which Israel committed not to establish new settlements—will dramatically reshape the West Bank and entrench the occupation even further,” Peace Now added. The new settlements were announced by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said explicitly that the step would prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. “All the new communities are being established with a long-term strategic vision, aimed at reinforcing Israeli control of the territory, preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state, and securing development reserves for settlement in the coming decades,” the ministers said. Some of the settlements that were approved were already constructed as outposts without government approval, and others will be new. Settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory are considered illegal under international law. The approval comes as Israeli settlers, emboldened by the government, have stepped up their attacks and intimidation tactics against Palestinians with the goal of stealing their land. Violent settlers recently forced 150 Palestinians to flee their village under the watch of the Israeli military.
Yemen's Houthis Fire Missile at Israel for Third Time in Four Days -Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, fired another missile at Israeli territory on Sunday, marking the third Yemeni attack on Israel in four days.The Israeli military said it intercepted the missile, and some of the debris landed in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Sirens sounded in the Jerusalem area and in some West Bank settlements, sending hundreds of thousands to bomb shelters.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the missile targeted the Ben Gurion International Airport. Several major airliners have halted flights to the airport due to the continued Yemeni attacks.“The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm their continued ban on air traffic to Lod (Ben Gurion) Airport, and that most airlines have complied with the ban in recent days, significantly impacting air traffic at the aforementioned airport,” Saree said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency.The Houthis have vowed that the attacks on Israel won’t stop until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade of the Palestinian territory.“The daily massacres committed against our people in the Gaza Strip are pushing Yemen, with its proud people, faithful leadership, and its mujahid army, to make greater efforts and work to escalate military operations that aim to halt the aggression against Gaza and lift the siege,” Saree said.
Israeli Airstrikes Hit Yemen's Sanaa International Airport - Israeli warplanes bombed the Sanaa International Airport in Yemen again on Thursday as the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, havecontinued missile attacks on Israel in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.Yemeni officials said four strikes hit a runway at the airport. Khaled al-Shaief, director of the Sanaa airport, said the attack destroyed the last operational plane used by Yemen’s national airlines and posted a photo on X of the aftermath of the attack.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed the attack hit “terror targets” at the airport. “Air Force jets have just struck terror targets of the Houthi terrorist organization at the airport in Sanaa and destroyed the last aircraft remaining,” he said.The Sanaa airport had just resumed limited service on May 17 after it had suspended all flights due to Israeli airstrikes on May 6 that left the facility “totally disabled.” Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni civilian infrastructure and new US sanctions on the Houthis, who govern an area where 70% to 80% of Yemenis live, have exacerbated an already dire humanitarian crisis in the country. From March 15 to May 6, the US struck more than 1,000 targets in Yemen, killing over 200 civilians.Since President Trump announced a ceasefire with the Houthis, the Yemeni group has shown no sign of backing down against Israel and has repeatedly vowed its attacks would stop only if there were a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade on the Palestinian territory.Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said Wednesday that the Israeli attacks wouldn’t deter Yemen. “No matter the size of Israeli aggression and no matter how often it repeats, it will not affect our people’s stance in supporting the Palestinian people. The Israeli enemy remained in a weak position following the cessation of American aggression due to its failure,” he said.While Trump framed the truce with the Houthis as a US victory, the US really gave up trying to stop Yemeni attacks on Israel after a month and a half of heavy airstrikes.
Yemen's Houthis Fire Missile at Israel a Day After Israeli Strikes on Sanaa Airport - Yemen’s Houthis fired another missile at Israel on Thursday, a day after Israeli airstrikes hit Yemen’s Sanaa International Airport.The Israeli military said that it intercepted the missile after sirens sounded across central Israel. According to Israeli media, the incident marked the fifth Yemeni missile attack on Israel within a week.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, said the missile targeted Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. Several major airlines have suspended flights to the airport amid the repeated Houthi attacks.“The operation successfully achieved its goal, thanks to Allah, forcing millions of occupying Zionists to flee to shelters and halting air traffic at the airport,” said Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.Saree reiterated that the Yemeni attacks on Israel would continue until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade. Ansar Allah officials have also vowed that they won’t be deterred by Israeli airstrikes. The Israeli strikes that hit the Sanaa airport on Wednesday struck a runway and destroyed the last functioning airplane that belongs to the national Yemeni airline. The airport had just resumed limited service on May 17 after it had suspended all flights due to Israeli airstrikes on May 6 that left the facility “totally disabled.”
Israel, Syria Reportedly Engage in Direct Security Talks - News From Antiwar.com --According to reports citing unnamed sources, Israel and Syria have recent held direct security talks with one another. The talks are said to have happened in the wake of indirect talks between the two sides involving intermediaries, which have been confirmed.The reports say that the direct talks involved a group of Syrian personnel including Ahmed al-Dalati, formerly the appointed governor of Quneitra Governorate who just this week was also put in charge of security in the Suwaiya Governorate.The talks are meant to reduce the scope of the ongoing Israeli invasion and occupation of southwest Syria. Israel invaded Syria in December, after the ouster of the Assad government by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Israel and the HTS have been engaged in secret talkssince April.While the secret talks have been confirmed repeatedly, the report of direct talks didn’t go well in Syria, as many who are angry at the ongoing Israeli invasion objected to the idea of talks while Israel is continuing to occupy parts of Syrian territory and carrying out substantial attacks there.Dalati issued a statement denying he participated in any direct talks,calling the allegations of his involvement “baseless” and lacking in credibility. He insisted that the government would take all necessary steps to protect Syria’s sovereignty.Assuming the talks are actually happening, it’s a positive step for Israel-Syria relation. The HTS had expressed interest in normalizing relations with Israel even before they managed to seize power, though that effort has struggled so far with the active Israeli invasion and constant condemnations of the HTS government by top Israeli officials. Even if Israel doesn’t want to admit it, if they are secretly holding direct talks, it’s clearly a possible step toward ending their latest round of aggression against Syria.
Hezbollah Defies Western Expectations With Strong Showing in South Lebanon Vote - War, sanctions and other economic threats have proven a popular way for the West to try to sway elections in the Middle East. When southern Lebanon went to its municipal elections last week, Israeli media and other Western outlets seemed to expect Hezbollah would suffer because of all that has happened in the past year.There are some suspicions it is driving the US policy of blocking all reconstruction aid into Lebanon after the war, believing that Hezbollah will do worse in elections going forward if the voters are all still living in the bombed-out ruins of the war. Lebanon’s Finance Minister even said ahead of the municipal elections that he was told all reconstruction aid was on hold until Hezbollah was fully disarmed.Yet despite continued stories about how “isolated and weak” Hezbollah is today, they performed strongly in the municipal elections. Hezbollah and the Amal Movement (another Shi’ite bloc) ran a joint list in the elections, and overwhelmingly won across the Shi’ite-heavy south of the country.In many cases, the joint list ran unopposed, and won without any competition. 70 of the 109 municipalities south of the Litani Riverturned out this way. Where there was competition they also performed strongly, winning a lot of towns and villages in voting as well.This underscores that even after the devastating war, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement remain a political powerhouse in the region most targeted. The talk of sidelining Hezbollah as an armed faction doesn’t appear to have harmed their political fate, and the group might be more focused on deeper political power in the future.It’s also possible that blocking reconstruction aid is working against the US in trying to undermine Hezbollah. Hezbollah played up the aid they are providing to locals in those regions after the war, including help paying rent for the displaced and help renovating damaged buildings. With the rest of the world holding off on doing much of anything in the area, it ironically gave Hezbollah an opportunity to position itself as the indispensable ones. In the end it may just prove another example of US financial pressure not working as intended. This has been seen the world over with US sanctions against regimes, where the economic hardship imposed by the sanctions just makes the public even more dependent on the government being targeted. As much hardship as the latest Israeli war caused, post-war efforts are leaving Hezbollah as the only real faction for people there to rely on, and even insisting the whole mess is Hezbollah’s fault is, as shown by these votes, largely falling on deaf ears.
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