natural gas price hit a 13 month high; US oil production at a record high; biggest jump in gasoline supplies in 23 weeks

US oil prices fell for the second time in three weeks on a cease fire in the war between Israel and Lebanon…after rising 6.5% to $71.24 a barrel last week on a major escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for January delivery fell back in early overseas trading on Monday, as traders rebalanced their positions in the major asset classes, then dropped more than $1.50/bbl in morning trading in New York, following a report that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to terms of a potential ceasefire deal, and settled the session $2.30 or more than 3% lower at $68.94 a barrel​, as talk of a potential cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah led to a shrinking of the "security premium"​ on prices….oil prices rebounded in Asian trading early Tuesday on reports that the OPEC+ countries might leave their current oil output cuts in place f​o​r January at their next meeting on Sunday, but gave back ​t​heir early gains in US trading in light of the news that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, and settled 17 cents lower at $68 77 a barrel as the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah eased concerns about risks to supplies from the oil-rich Middle East….oil prices edged up in Asian trading on Wednesday, as markets assessed the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, when the group could delay a planned increase of oil output, then dipped in New York after the EIA reported a smaller than expected draw from US crude inventories, and settled 5 cents lower at $68 77 a barrel, pressured by a large surprise build in U.S. gasoline stocks and worries about U.S. interest rate cuts next year….while US markets were closed for Thanksgiving, oil traded lower overseas on Thursday morning following the ​big increase in gasoline inventory levels in the US, then steadied in thin trading as traders watched for any further clues to OPEC+’s production plans, after it had delayed a key meeting by four days, and ended up 7 cents at $68.79 a barrel, as a further deferment from OPEC had mostly been factored in to oil prices already…oil prices rose slightly in Asia on Friday after Israel and Hezbollah traded accusations of ceasefire violations, and as a delay to an OPEC+ meeting left traders awaiting a decision on its output policy, but turned lower in New York, pressured by easing concern over supply risks in the Middle East and the prospect of increased supply in 2025​, even with OPEC+'s extended output cuts, and settled 1% lower at $68.00 a barrel, down 72 cents from the last New York price before the Thanksgiving holiday, and down 4.5% for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for a fourth consecutive week on continued forecasts for colder than normal temperatures….after rising 10.8% to $3.129 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for below normal temperatures and a surprise withdrawal of natural gas from storage, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for December delivery opened the week 18.3 cents higher and rose to a 13-month intraday high of $3.461 by midday Monday, supported by forecasts for increased heating demand, but pulled back in the afternoon to close 24.0 cents higher at $3.369 per mmBTU, the highest close since November 2023, as traders positioned for a cold snap expected over the holiday weekend….the December contract opened 3.7 cent higher on its last day of trading on Tuesday, as cold forecasts and strong LNG exports provided support, and expired 6.2 cents higher at ​a 13 month high of $3.431 per mmBTU, while the January natural gas contract price, which would be the ​cited front month ​for the rest of the week, settled 2.4 cents higher at $3.467 per mmBTU….with the markets now citing the price of the January benchmark natural gas contract, that price retreated early on Wednesday as traders awaited the day’s weekly inventory update, then tumbled after the report as traders took profits and firmed up positions ahead of the holiday, and settled 26.3 cents or 8% lower at $3.204 per mmBTU on rising output and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than had been previously expected…however, natural gas prices moved higher early Friday on another forecast reversal, a prediction of a significant rise in heating needs to 402 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared to 382 forecast previously, and settled 15.9 cents higher at $3.363 per mmBTU, supported by forecasts for colder weather​, which would boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling more gas from storage…natural gas price quotes thus ended 7.5% higher for the week, while the January contract price, which had closed last week at $3.287, ended 2.3% higher..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending November 22nd indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 2 billion cubic feet to 3,967 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 134 billion cubic feet, or 3.5% above the 3,833 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on November 22nd of last year, and 267 billion cubic feet, or 7.2% more than the five-year average of 3,700 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 22nd of November over the most recent five years….the 2 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week ​was not far off the 1 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and co​mpares with the 5 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in November of 2023, while it was quite a bit less than the average 30 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late November week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending November 22nd indicated that after a substantial drop in our oil imports, and an increase in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 14th time in twenty-two weeks, and for the 27th time in the past 51 weeks, despite an increase in the domestic supply of oil that the EIA could not account ...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,600,000 barrels per day to average 6,083,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 1,175,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 285,000 barrels per day to 4,663,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,420,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending November 22nd, 1,885,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 557,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 292,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,493,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,470,000 barrels per day during the November 22nd reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,295,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 22nd, an average of 67,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 96,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending November 22nd averaged a rounded 729,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a ​[ +729,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 564,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,293,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, making the week over week changes we have just cited nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 96,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 263,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 167,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fiftieth SPR increase in the past fifty-seven weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,629,000 barrels per day last week, which was 5.5% more than the 6,282,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 292,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,493,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 289,000 barrels per day higher at 13,049,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 3,000 barrels per day higher at 444,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 90.5% of their capacity while processing those 16,295,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending November 22nd, up from from their 90.2% utilization rate of a week earlier, fairly normal utilization rates for the middle of Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 16,295,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1​.7% more than the 16,022,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending November 24th of 2023, but 0.2% less than the 16,334,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019, a week when our refinery utilization rate was at a somewhat low 89.3% for mid-Autumn…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 457,000 barrels per day to 9,744,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 22nd, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 980,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 4.4% more than the 9,337,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending November 24th of last year, but 3.2% less than the gasoline production of 10,065,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 5,096,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 132,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that sharp production increase, our distillates output was 2.0% more than the 4,998,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending November 24th of 2023, and 0.4% more than the 5,075,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending November 22nd, 2019…

After this week’s big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the tenth time in twenty-two weeks and by the most since July 12th, increasing by 3,314,000 barrels to 212,241,000 barrels during the week ending November 22nd, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,054,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose by more this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 87,000 barrels per day to of 8,506,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline rose by 262,000 barrels per day to 636,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of gasoline rose by 447,000 barrels per day to 1,063,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-three weeks, our gasoline supplies were 2.7% below last November 24th’s gasoline inventories of 218,184,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the second time in ten weeks, increasing by 416,000 barrels to 114,717,000 barrels over the week ending November 22nd, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 114,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose this week as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 57,000 barrels per day to 3,718,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 262,000 barrels per day to 1,463,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 21,000 barrels per day to 144,000 barrels per day....Even after 26 inventory withdrawals over the past 44 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 3.6% above the 110,778,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on November 24th of 2023, while they are now about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big decrease in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 15th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,844,000 barrels over the week, from 430,292,000 barrels on November 15th to 428,448,000 barrels on November 22nd, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 545,000 barrels to a three month high over the prior week… With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories fell to about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 25% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third of November over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this November 22nd were 4.7% less than the 449,664,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on November 24th of 2023, but ​were 2.2% more than the 419,084,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on November 25th of 2022, ​w​hile 1.3% less than the 434,020,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on November 19th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

Note that this week’s rig count was released on Wednesday, November 27th, instead of Friday, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and hence only covers changes to rigs over the five days from last Friday to Wednesday…moreover, the comparisons to year ago rig counts also include a Thanksgiving shortened 5 day period…so, included below is a screenshot of this week’s rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of November 27th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (November 22nd) and this week’s (November 27th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s (November 22nd) active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Wednesday​ and the number running on the Wednesday​ before ​Thanksgiving of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 29th of November, 2023…

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Utica Oil E&P Infinity Natural Resources' IPO Gains 7 More Bankers - Seven more investment bankers have signed on as managers of Utica oil producer Infinity Natural Resources’ IPO, according to an updated S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Citigroup, Raymond James and RBC Capital Markets were named in the initial filing Oct. 4 as the offering’s joint book-running managers. Since then, Infinity reported Nov. 27 that more have joined—Keybanc Capital Markets and Stephens as senior co-managers; Comerica Securities, First Citizens Capital Securities and BTIG as co-managers; and BOK Financial Securities and Zions Capital Markets as junior co-managers. The number of shares Infinity estimates it will offer in the IPO or an estimated price range have not yet been provided in its SEC filings. The stock is to trade as INR on the NYSE. Meaningful deal-price comparisons for the Utica oil window on a per-flowing-boe basis are not available as most operators’ entry has been through boots-on-the-ground leasing and acquisitions of mostly undeveloped property. The Infinity IPO is expected to provide a first-look at the public market’s valuation of the Utica oil play. Tim Parker, CTO for privately held Encino Energy, told Hart Energy in early November that delineation is still underway for the new play as “we're actively pushing it updip and we're not to the limit of that yet—or we don't think we are.”When Encino, which is Ohio’s No. 1 oil producer now with 43,000 bbl/d, entered the play in 2018, “We didn't know how far updip it was going to go. We still don't. It's getting bigger, still.” Shown to date, though, is that the economic width of the more than 140-mile north-to-south oily fairway is at least 15 miles and “maybe as much as 25,” he said.Publicly held EOG Resources, which joined in the play in 2022, reported earlier this month that it was sending a second rig to its leasehold there and putting a frac spread to work full-time.It had been delineating its leasehold with an initial 25 wells, one rig and a part-time frac spread. It brought nine more Utica wells on in third-quarter 2024, taking its new-drill dataset in the play to 25 wells. Backed by energy-focused private-equity firms Pearl Energy Investments and NGP, Morgantown, West Virginia-based Infinity entered the Marcellus play in 2018 in southwestern Pennsylvania. But the IPO is expected to generate the greatest interest in Infinity’s oily Utica shale asset in Ohio where it is producing 7,110 bbl/d from some of its 59,992 net acres to date, up from 300 bbl/d that the initial footprint was producing at the time of entry in 2021.Among all operators in the oil-weighted Utica, 297 wells have been brought online since 2019, Infinity reported in the S-1, “delineating the core of the play located in Carroll, Tuscarawas, Harrison, Guernsey, Noble, Muskingum and Morgan counties.” Among operators’ new wells beginning in 2021, first-90-day IPs have averaged 902 bbl/d on a 15,000-ft-lateral basis among the 208 wells that were online at least 90 days through this past September, “making the volatile oil window one of the leading oil resource plays in the Lower 48,” Infinity reported. Among Ohio’s 17 operators, several are focused on the Utica’s gas-rich and NGL-rich fairways while a handful are currently surfacing barrels from its oil window, bringing the state’s oil output to average 88,040 bbl/d in the second quarter. (Source: Hart Energy via Ohio Department of Natural Resources well data.) “When combined with the play’s low operating costs, low water production and low drilling costs, the Utica’s volatile oil window maintains one of the lowest breakeven costs among all oil resource plays in the United States,” it added. Of its Ohio Utica leasehold, 39,815 net acres were picked up in October of 2023 from Utica Resource Ventures and PEO Ohio for $279 million in Washington, Morgan, Noble and Guernsey counties, including 54 existing horizontals. Earlier this year, it added 5,705 net acres under Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County in a state lease sale.

DEP Finds Shale Gas Wastewater Pipeline Sprayed & Leaked 12,600+ Gallons For Nearly 3 Hours In Gilmore Twp., Greene County - On September 11, 2024, DEP did an inspection of the NITMH023 shale gas wastewater pipeline in Gilmore Township, Greene County in response to a notification by EQM Gathering OPCO LLC of a spill from the pipeline at the Trust Well Site owned by EQT Production Company.The inspection found the pipeline still leaking at the time of arrival. The pipeline had been leaking and spraying shale gas wastewater for nearly three hours before being stopped.An estimated 12,600 gallons of wastewater was released from the leak in the pipeline. This estimate is based on the fact that three vac tank trucks were able to recover 12,600 gallons of wastewater from the start of the spill.DEP’s inspector said it wasn’t clear what caused the pipeline to leak and spray wastewater.The owner said the pipeline was new, having only been installed at the site for the past month and a half without issues.A follow-up contact from the owner to DEP later in the day said contamination has also been found below the pipeline on the Trust Well Site.There was no indication in the inspection report where the 12,600 gallons of wastewater went or whether it posed a threat to any drinking water wells nearby.The Trust Well Pad, owned by EQT Production Company, is located at 212 Hoy Hill Road, Holbrook-- Latitude: 39.76133 Longitude: -80.28292, according to DEP’s Oil & Gas Mapping Tool.Typically neither DEP nor the site owner notifies neighboring well owners of spills that could impact their private water supplies.If you live near this location and could be affected, contact DEP’s Southwest District Oil and Gas Office in Pittsburgh at 412-442-4000 or New Stanton Office 724-925-5500.DEP’s inspection report included multiple violations related to the release and requested the owner to submit a plan by October 3, 2024 on how the site will be cleaned up and brought into compliance.

DEP Discovers Evidence Of Continuous Conventional Oil Well Wastewater Release At McKean County Well Site During Routine Inspection - (photos) On November 14, the Department of Environmental Protection discovered evidence of a continuous wastewater release at the Parsons and Warrant 566 conventional oil well sites in Eldred Township, McKean County owned by Charles T. Wandover, Sr. and produced by Charles A. Wandover, Jr., according to DEP. The Parsons well site consists of 11 conventional wells and the Warrant 566 site includes four conventional wells, according to DEP’s eFACTS database. DEP’s inspection report said a gathering wastewater pipeline from one or more wells was connected to a large, poly [plastic] wastewater storage tank. From DEP’s initial investigation, the wastewater release occurred when a valve connected to a flexible drain line at the plastic tank was left open “allowing any production fluid that entered the poly tank to freely drain out the bottom.” The flexible drain line was “observed to travel up and out of the containment area in a northeastern direction for approximately 450 feet until terminating in a grassy area.” Photos included in DEP’s inspection report show the drain line is not visible on the ground surface as it travels to the area where it drains. “Evidence was also found to suggest that production fluid had been previously released within the containment and previously allowed to flow through the containment's fresh water drain onto the ground outside of containment.” “From there, as observed by a path of dead vegetation, the production fluid traveled north approximately 300 feet before ponding in a grassy area.” DEP documented very high conductivity readings along the path of the release. DEP’s inspection report said both Charles Wandover, Sr., who has a business address listed in Inverness, Florida, and Charles Wandover, Jr. were notified of the release by phone. DEP said Charles Wandover, Jr. agreed to meet on November 20 to discuss the violations and remediation options. On November 20, DEP did meet onsite with Charles Wandover, Jr. to discuss the release of wastewater from the containment area and poly storage tank. DEP inspection report. “Since the 11/14/2024 inspection, [Charles Wandover, Jr.] had voluntarily replaced and closed the drain valve on the poly brine tank and had begun removing sections of the black HDPE [plastic] line that previously connected the old drain line to the grassy area.” “We discussed remediation options at this meeting, and Chuck agreed to immediately begin work to bring the leases into compliance. Additional inspections will be conducted to monitor remediation activities and evaluate that necessary actions are being taken to achieve compliance.”DEP also took samples of fluid from the site. On November 25, 2024, DEP sent Charles T. Wandover, Sr. a written notice of violation based on the November 14 inspection report.Multiple violations were included in the notice, including failure to notify DEP of the wastewater release, failure to collect and properly manage wastewater from the well(s) and failure to prevent pollution of ground and surface waters.DEP requested a written response “detailing the cause of this violation, actions taken and future steps to be taken to address the violation noted in the NOV.”DEP’s inspection report set a deadline of December 2, 2024 for that response.The last time DEP inspected the wells on the Warrant 566 tract was on February 11, 2009 when violations were found, but immediately corrected, according to DEP’s Oil & Gas Compliance Database [inspection reports not online]. Two of the Warrant 566 wells were drilled in 1981 and two in 1995.Charles T. Wandover Sr. holds 50 conventional oil and gas well permits, according to DEP’s eFACTs database. Charles A. Wandover, Jr. holds no well permits, although is in DEP’s eFACTS database as a client.

DEP Determines Rulemaking Petition Submitted By Environmental, Health Groups To Adopt More Protective Setbacks From Shale Gas Wells Is An Action The Environmental Quality Board Has Statutory Authority To Take - On November 21, the Department of Environmental Protection announced it has determined, in response to a rulemaking petition, the state Environmental Quality Board has the statutory authority to adopt a regulation setting more protective setbacks from shale gas wells for homes, schools and streams in its initial petition review.EQB regulations at 25 Pa. Code § 23.2 require a petition to meet three criteria in DEP’s initial review--

• -- Petition must be complete;
• -- Petition requests an action that can be taken by the EQB [within its statutory authority]; and
• -- The action does not conflict with federal law.

DEP’s determination means the petition has met these three criteria, at this stage. The next step in the process is that the petition will be announced at the next EQB meeting, and Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project will have the chance to give a 5-minute presentation on why EQB should accept it for study. DEP will make a recommendation at that meeting as to whether EQB should accept the petition for study. If EQB accepts the petition, DEP then has 60 days to prepare a report evaluating the petition in detail, to which the groups will be able to respond, and then DEP will make its final recommendation. If DEP recommends a regulatory change, it has six months to develop a proposed rulemaking for EQB consideration. On October 22, the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project-- as part of the Protective Buffers PA Coalition-- filed a 358-page rulemaking petition with the Environmental Quality Board asking it to increase minimum setback distances from shale gas wells from a minimum now of 500 feet to 3,281 feet. Read more here. Specifically, the petition proposes--

• -- 3,281 feet from any building;
• -- 3,281 feet from any drinking water well;
• -- 5,280 feet from any building serving vulnerable populations (e.g., schools, daycare centers, hospitals); and
• -- 750 feet from any surface water of the Commonwealth.

Click Here for background on health and environmental issues identified in over 20 years of experience with shale gas development in Pennsylvania, including health studies, a special Grand Jury Report and other resources.“This is an important first step in the right direction to protect the millions of Pennsylvanians who live near fracking,” said Alex Bomstein, Executive Director of Clean Air Council. “No one deserves to live with the harms and perils of fracking in their backyard.”“Study after study shows that fracking too close to buildings and waterways has caused grave and undeniable harm to Pennsylvanians, so we’re glad our petition is moving forward.” said Lisa Hallowell, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. “DEP’s job is to protect people and the environment from pollution, and increasing minimum setback distances from fracking sites should be an obvious next step to protect everyone in the Commonwealth regardless of one’s politics.”“There is no evidence that shale gas development can be done without harm to human health,” said Alison L. Steele, executive director of the Environmental Health Project. “However, greater setback distances are ultimately better for reducing health harms. The EQB’s consideration of a petition to increase setbacks can begin the critical work of correcting what was unquestionably an egregious public health error made when fracking was in its infancy. Today, we know better.”“Those of us living on the front lines of fracking activity have known for decades that this activity is way too close to thousands of families across Pennsylvania, which was affirmed in the 43rd Grand Jury report,” said Gillian Graber, Executive Director of Protect PT, a member of the coalition. “We would encourage the EQB to take swift action to support families impacted by fracking by instituting these changes,” said Graber. "The EQB's acceptance of this petition marks a significant step toward adopting long-overdue protections for Pennsylvania communities," said Katie Jones, Ohio River Valley Coordinator with FracTracker Alliance. "As Attorney General, Governor Shapiro strongly advocated for commonsense measures to protect public health, including expanded no-drill zones to shield Pennsylvanians from the harmful impacts of fracking. At FracTracker, our data consistently highlights the disproportionate risks faced by frontline communities, and we urge swift action to transform this proposal into enforceable safeguards that deliver meaningful relief to those most affected." "Earthworks has spent the last decade proving that oil and gas operations pollute nearby homes and entire communities," said Melissa Ostroff of Earthworks. "Requiring polluters to operate at a distance less harmful to the health of people, and especially children, is common sense and the right thing to do. We appreciate the DEP's decision to move the petition forward, and Gov. Shapiro and his administration should act quickly to set safe setback distances to protect all Pennsylvanians." Click Here for a copy of DEP’s determination.

PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - November 30 --The following notices were published in the November 30 PA Bulletin related to oil and gas industry facilities. Many of the notices offer the opportunity for public comments.

• -- CNX Gas Company reported to DEP it failed to stop pumping shale gas wastewater through a pipeline for 24+ hours after an excavator punctured an “unmarked” wastewater pipeline at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area 7 in Morris Township, Greene County.On May 21, 2024, CNX notified DEP of a spill related to the McQuay to Morris 2 and 3 shale gas wastewater pipeline, as reported in PA Environment Digest. DEP May 21 inspection report. Read more here.The McQuay pipeline is near CNX’s MOR9 shale gas well pad on CONSOL’s underground Bailey Coal Mine surface property. CNX published notice it would be cleaning up the site under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program. (PA Bulletin, page 7704) Read more here.
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Shale Gas Well Pad C09J: DEP received a Notice of Intent to remediate soil contaminated with production wastewater water to meet the Statewide Health Standard at the pad located in Shippen Twp., Cameron County. (PA Bulletin, page 7704)
• -- CNX Gas Company LLC - Wastewater Pipeline Puncture At Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area: DEP received a Notice of Intent to remediate area to meet unknown cleanup standards at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area impacted by a release from an “unmarked” shale gas wastewater pipeline punctured by a bulldozer during earthmoving operations located in Morris Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7704). Read more here.
• -- SWN Production Company LLC - Greezwieg Large Impoundment: DEP received Final Report on remediation of groundwater contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standard at the facility located in Herrick Twp., Bradford County. (PA Bulletin, page 7747
• -- EQT Corporation - Beta Cameron Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP received a on remediation of soil contaminated with water-based spacer fluid to meet Statewide Health Standards at the well pad located in Richhill Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Watkins 820 Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with production wastewater and oil-based drilling mud to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Chatham Twp., Tioga County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- SWN Production Company, LLC - WY 10 Falconero Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of groundwater contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Forkston Twp., Wyoming County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- EQT Corporation - Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with production wastewater (aluminum, barium, boron, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, selenium, strontium, vanadium, and zinc) to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Cumberland Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7749)
• -- Greylock Production, LLC - Walker #1 Conventional Well: DEP approved a Final Report on remediate of soil contaminated with production wastewater (aluminum, barium, boron, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, selenium, strontium, vanadium, and zinc) to meet Statewide Health Standards at the well located in Cumberland Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7749)
• So far in 2024, DEP received or acted on 262 Act 2 Land Recycling notices related to oil and gas facility site cleanups.

CNX Gas Company Reports It Did Not Stop Pumping Shale Gas Wastewater Through A Punctured Pipeline For 24+ Hours During An Incident In Morris Township, Greene County In May = CNX Gas Company reported to DEP it did not stop pumping shale gas wastewater through a pipeline for 24+ hours after an excavator punctured an “unmarked” wastewater pipeline at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area 7 in Morris Township, Greene County.On May 21, 2024, CNX notified DEP of a spill related to the McQuay to Morris 2 and 3 shale gas wastewater pipeline, as reported in PA Environment Digest. DEP May 21 inspection report.The McQuay pipeline is near CNX’s MOR9 shale gas well pad on CONSOL’s underground Bailey Coal Mine surface property.CNX initially reported that “more than a barrel” [42 gallons] of wastewater was released from a pipeline damaged by a contractor for CONSOL when an excavator doing earthwork at the coal refuse disposal area punctured an “unmarked” pipeline that runs under the disposal area.In a June 21, 2024 response to DEP’s May 21 inspection report, CNX included a timeline of actions related to the incident that were known up until that time.According to the timeline, the incident puncturing the wastewater pipeline happened on May 20 at 8:30 a.m. On May 21 at 9:15 a.m., a CNX foreman received a voicemail that a contractor punctured the wastewater pipeline.On May 21 at 9:34 a.m., CNX ceased all pumping of wastewater through the pipeline-- more than 24-hours after the pipeline was punctured.On May 21 at Noon, CNX reported the incident to DEP Oil & Gas Program and CONSOL reported the incident to DEP’s Mining Office.CNX said in its June 21 response, it had repaired 450 feet of damaged wastewater pipeline and excavated contaminated material was stockpiled for later removal.CNX estimated removal of the contaminated soils would happen by July 5, 2024.There was no estimate of the amount of wastewater released in the response.The company said it would use the Act 2 Land Recycling Program standards for cleaning up the site.. On May 21, DEP inspected the incident site in response to the CNX notification that same day and found “elevated conductivity” in “pooled water and substrate” at the impacted area.At the time of this initial inspection, “CNX representatives noted that CONSOL had not called to check for buried lines in their work area since November of 2023,” according to DEP.DEP requested CNX to submit a response to the violations resulting from the incident by June 18, 2024 with a description of how they would bring the site into compliance and an estimate of the amount of wastewater released. DEP May 21 inspection report.In a follow-up inspection on May 28, DEP reported remediation work was continuing, but there were still areas with elevated conductivity. DEP also found two new seeps of an “oil-like substance” in the spill area. DEP May 28 inspection report.DEP said the wastewater pipeline was reburied and flagged at the time of this inspection.

Public Citizen: LNG Gas Exports Could Cost Pennsylvanians Up To $16 Billion More In Energy Costs - - On November 25, Public Citizen released a new report saying Pennsylvania’s households, businesses, and owners of electric power plants could pay up to $16 billion more because of higher natural gas prices between 2035 to 2050 if the new Republican Administration approves new gas export facility permits put on hold by the Biden Administration.Pennsylvanians will be on the hook for an increase in their energy prices—and more exposure to volatile international energy markets. The state’s electric power sector and its customers, already coping with overreliance on expensive fossil fuel generators, would bear the brunt of the increase, with Pennsylvania’s gas-fired power plants paying up to an additional $7.4 billion for gas over 15 years.According to the report, the impact wouldn’t stop there, with energy price hikes impacting industrial natural gas consumers, costing them an additional $4 billion, residential gas utility consumers an additional $2 billion and commercial consumers an extra $1 billion.More than half of Pennsylvania households use natural gas as the main fuel to heat their homes. Over one-quarter of U.S. households are experiencing energy insecurity, including having difficulty paying energy bills, skipping necessities such as food and medicine, or keeping their homes at unsafe temperatures because of an inability to pay for energy. “Pennsylvania consumers should prepare for a Trump energy shock as fossil fuel exporters profit at their consumers’ expense,” said Alan Zibel, a research director at Public Citizen and the report’s author. “Ramping up gas exports has already caused major negative consequences for consumers. The incoming Trump administration will advance a massive expansion of fossil fuel exports, delivering higher energy bills to the people of Pennsylvania.”The average winter heating bill for gas users in the Northeast is expected to rise nearly 11%, driving the average bill up to $844 for the winter of 2024-2025 and nearly 22% of American households were behind on their gas bill as of June 2024, up from 19% a year earlier, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.The U.S. has become the world’s largest methane gas exporter, with seven LNG terminals operating and five more are under construction. Export is expected to double by 2028, despite opposition from local communities suffering serious health impacts. “If Trump approves pending LNG export authorizations that the Biden administration temporarily halted earlier this year, China will be the big winner and Pennsylvania families will be stuck paying higher prices despite record production,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s Energy Program. “The gas export fiasco benefits fracking executives and owners of export terminals while sticking American families and small business owners with the bill.” Click Here for a copy of the report. Click Here for the complete announcement.

Closed Fairmont, WV Wastewater Plant Not Cleaned Up 1.5 Years Later - Marcellus Drilling News - On May 30, 2023, a fire and subsequent explosion damaged an above-ground storage tank and the upper process building at the already-closed Fairmont Brine Processing plant in Fairmont, WV (see Unrelated Explosions at OH Utica Well Pad, WV Brine Plant). Following the fire, elevated readings of TENORM radiation were found in several areas of the site. Here it is a year-and-a-half later, and work to clean up the facility still has not happened, much to the consternation and concern of those who live near it.

EQT, Blackstone Credit Form $8.8-Billion Midstream Joint Venture - Independent natural gas producer EQT has entered into a definitive agreement with funds managed by Blackstone Credit & Insurance to form a multi-billion midstream joint venture consisting of EQT's ownership interest in Mountain Valley Pipeline, certain regulated transmission and storage assets, and the Hammerhead Pipeline. The venture announcement follows EQT’s $5.45-billion purchase of Equitrans Midstream this past March. EQT will be the operator of the midstream joint venture, controlling all key decision making. Under the terms of the agreement Blackstone Credit will provide EQT $3.5 billion in cash consideration in exchange for a noncontrolling common equity interest in the venture. The investment implies a total valuation for the new entity of around $8.8 billion. The venture provides EQT with a large-scale equity capital solution at an accretive cost of capital. Additionally, EQT will retain the rights to growth projects associated with the assets contributed to the venture, including the planned Mountain Valley Pipeline expansion and the Mountain Valley Southgate project. The Mountain Valley Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline system that spans roughly 303 miles from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, serving the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. The line was placed in service this past June. The transmission and storage assets cover around 940 miles of pipeline running through Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The 63-mile Hammerhead Pipeline is a 1.6 Bcf/D gathering header pipeline connecting natural gas produced in Pennsylvania and West Virginia to Mountain Valley Pipeline, Texas Eastern Transmission, and Eastern Gas Transmission. "Blackstone is a leader in providing capital solutions to large corporations and we are thrilled to partner with them in this unique transaction, crafting a tailor-made equity financing solution at a price significantly below EQT's equity cost of capital while preserving key tax attributes,” said Jeremy Knop, chief financial officer at EQT. The joint venture transaction is subject to customary closing adjustments, required regulatory approvals and clearances, and is expected to close prior to year-end. EQT dubbed the Equitrans deal “transformative” at the time of the announcement last spring. It provided more than 2,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure with extensive overlap and connectivity in EQT’s core area of operations. The combined company holds 27.6 Tcf equivalent (Tcfe) of proved reserves including natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil across 1.9 million net acres with 6.3 Bcfe/D of net production and more than 8 Bcfe/D of gathering throughput across more than 3,000 miles of pipeline.

Cheniere Clears Another Hurdle to Startup Corpus Christi LNG Expansion --FERC on Wednesday gave Cheniere Energy Inc. permission to introduce natural gas to its Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefaction expansion in South Texas, keeping the project on track to produce first LNG this year. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Cheniere’s Aug. 14 request to introduce natural gas to Train 1’s fuel gas and hot oil systems. As the timelines for other North American projects have slipped, CEO Jack Fusco said in October that the company’s contractor Bechtel Corp. is working on an accelerated schedule. He said during the company’s earnings call that pre-commissioning activities on Train 1 of the project were advancing.

FERC OKs Natural Gas Expansions, Including KMI-Led Elba Island and Texas-Louisiana Project --Three natural gas projects were approved by FERC on Thursday, including one to increase liquefaction capacity at the Elba Island LNG export terminal in Georgia. Chart, table and map showing estimated daily feed gas flows to U.S. LNG terminals. At its regular monthly meeting, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also approved a request by the Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America LLC (NGPL) to modify compressor stations for the Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project. In addition, a request by Rover Pipeline LLC was given the green light to construct and operate the Rover-Bulger Delivery Meter Station Project in Washington County, PA. In the Elba Island certificate approval, the Commission approved an expansion request by Elba Liquefaction Co. LLC (ELC), a joint venture led by Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) and operated by subsidiary Southern LNG Co. LLC (No. CP23-375-000).

ONEOK Buys Rest of EnLink for $4.3 Billion in Stock - Transmission specialists ONEOK will acquire all the outstanding publicly held units of EnLink in an all-stock merger transaction valued at $4.3 billion. In October, ONEOK completed the acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners’ (GIP) entire interest in EnLink for $3.3 billion in cash, giving them a 43% stake in the Dallas-based midstream operator. Following the all-stock deal, ONEOK will hold a 100% stake in EnLink. EnLink Midstream provides integrated energy infrastructure services for natural gas, oil, condensate, and NGLs, as well as CO2 transportation for carbon capture and sequestration. It operates around 13,600 miles of pipelines, 25 natural gas processing plants with roughly 5.9 Bcf/D of processing capacity, and seven fractionators with 320,000 B/D of fractionation capacity. The company’s core assets include natural gas infrastructure in the Permian Basin, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and North Texas. “This tax-free transaction to acquire the remaining outstanding EnLink units is expected to be accretive to ONEOK shareholders and provide EnLink unitholders with significantly greater trading liquidity and an attractive dividend yield,” said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and CEO. “ONEOK has a longstanding reputation as being intentional in building a premier energy infrastructure company. This next step further solidifies that status, allowing us to continue expanding and extending our value chain, while creating value for our stakeholders.” Under the agreement, each outstanding common unit of EnLink that ONEOK does not already own will be converted into 0.1412 shares of ONEOK common stock. ONEOK expects to issue approximately 37 million shares in connection with the proposed transaction, representing approximately 6% of the total ONEOK shares outstanding upon consummation of the transaction. Subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, completion of the transaction is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025. Two weeks after closing the deal for GIP’s interest in EnLink, ONEOK also concluded a deal to acquire Medallion Midstream from GIP in a cash deal worth $2.6 billion. Medallion operated one of the largest privately held crude gathering and transportation systems in the Permian’s Midland basin. The deal included more than 1,200 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines providing around 1.3 million B/D of capacity and approximately 1.5 million bbl of crude oil storage in the Permian Basin. ONEOK worked to offset a bit of its spending spree during this time. Earlier this month, it reached a deal with DT Midstream to sell its three wholly owned interstate natural gas pipeline systems for $1.2 billion in cash. The three interstate pipeline systems include Guardian Pipeline LLC, which interconnects with several pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois, and with local natural gas distribution and electric generation companies in Wisconsin; Midwestern Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system with a major pipeline interconnect near Portland, Tennessee, and with multiple interstate pipelines that have access to both the Utica Shale and the Marcellus Shale, and multiple interstate pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet; and Viking Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system that interconnects with a major pipeline system at the US border near Emerson, Canada, and Marshfield, Wisconsin. ONEOK said it would use proceeds from the sale to enhance its financial flexibility as well as its deleveraging trend toward its previously announced target of 3.5 times during 2026.

Oneok Building Natural Gas, NGL Portfolio with Full Ownership of EnLink --A month after acquiring a controlling stake in EnLink Midstream LLC, Oneok Inc. has agreed to pay $4.3 billion for the remaining publicly held shares in the Permian Basin-focused pipeline operator. Map showing Oneok Inc.'s midstream assets in Texas compared to EnLink Midstream and Medallion's assets. Tulsa-based Oneok completed its $3.3 billion purchase of a 43% controlling interest in EnLink from Global Infrastructure Partners in October. When the deal was announced in August, Oneok said it aimed to acquire remaining publicly held interests. Oneok said it would scoop up the remaining 6% of shares still publicly held. The all-stock transaction was expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025.

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Respond to Colder Forecasts and Geopolitical Challenges - Expectations of colder weather in the US and an early start to the withdrawal season have seen US natural gas starting the week on a strong note. Meanwhile, the escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions continues to support energy prices, Natural gas prices jumped higher this morning on expectations of colder weather in the US and the inventory draw over the last week. HENRY HUB Dec-24 contract jumped by around 9% to US$3.39/MMBtu this morning while the Jan-25 contract also increased by around 7% to US$3.52/MMBtu at the time of writing. Escalated geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has also been broadly supportive of natural gas prices as peak demand season approaches. The US sanctioned Russian bank Gazprombank last week, the last major financial institution handling payments from European energy customers to Russia. Crude oil prices started the week on a soft note after a positive run last week as geopolitical concerns remain although no new major escalation was seen over the weekend. ICE Brent slipped below US$75/bbl this morning while NYMEX WTI has been trading at around US$70.9/bbl. ICE Brent has been trading in a range of around US$70-75/bbl over the past few weeks as demand concerns keep a cap at around US$75/bbl while geopolitical concerns provide a floor around US$70/bbl.Weekly positioning data from the CFTC shows that managed money net long position in NYMEX WTI dropped for the second consecutive week. Money managers trimmed net longs in NYMEX WTI by 17,810 lots over the week to 108,132 lots as of 19 November. On the other hand, exchange data shows that speculators have built fresh longs of 31,390 lots in ICE Brent over the last week to leave them with 134,929 lots of net long position. Fresh concerns around the Russia-Ukraine war have pushed up speculative interest in energy commodities. Speculators also added 7,319 lots of long positions to the NYMEX Gasoline contracts to push net longs to 68,380 lots last week. The latest data from the World Steel Association (WSA) shows that global Steel production rose marginally by 0.4% YoY to 151.2mt in October. Higher output from China (+2.9% YoY to 81.9mt), India (+1.7% YoY to 12.5mt) and the European Union (+5.7% YoY to 11.3mt) was partially offset by lower production from Russia (-15.2% YoY), South Korea (-18.3% YoY) and Japan (-7.8% YoY). Cumulatively, global steel output fell by 1.6% YoY to 1,546.6mt over the first 10 months of the year. Chinese steel production fell 3% YoY to 850.7mt for the year to date.Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory data shows that weekly inventories for all base metals (except Nickel) fell over the reporting week. Copper stocks fell by 10,229 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 120,236 tonnes, the lowest since 9 February 2024. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories decreased by 1,827 tonnes for a fourth consecutive week to 231,854 tonnes (the lowest since June 2024).Lead and Zinc stocks also fell by 20,547 tonnes and 4,521 tonnes over the week. In contrast, nickel inventories rose by 2.4% week-over-week to 31,194 tonnes.The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators decreased their net longs of COMEX copper by 732 lots for a second consecutive week to 10,214 lots as of 19 November, the lowest since the week ending 13 August 2024. The move was driven by falling gross longs and gross shorts by 8,608 lots and 1,570 lots respectively. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased by 7,038 lots to 190,324 lots (the least bullish bets since the week ending on 6 August 2024) over the last reporting week. In contrast, speculators increased net longs of silver by 1,835 lots to 25,896 lots as of last Tuesday after previously reporting declines for three consecutive weeks. Recent data from Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry shows that the season's grain exports have increased by 43% YoY to 17.2mt as of 22 November, up from 12mt for the same period last year. The increase was driven by wheat, with exports rising significantly by 57% YoY to 8.6mt. Similarly, corn exports stood at 6.5mt, up 16% from a similar period a year ago. Total (EPA:TTEF) grain exports have reached almost 3mt so far this month. Meanwhile, farmers have already planted 6.1m hectares (slightly ahead of last year) of winter crops from 98% of the planted area. In a separate release, the Ministry said the total grain harvest declined 3.8% YoY to 53.4mt for the period mentioned above. The above includes a wheat harvest of 22.4mt, in line with the previous year's crop. Corn harvest stood at 23.6mt, down from 24.9mt at the same stage last year, whilesoybean harvest rose 25% YoY to 6mt. Recent estimates from the Western Australia Grain Association show that wheat harvest from the nation's top wheat-producing state could rise to a third-biggest harvest of 10.3mt for the 2024/25 season, slightly above the previous estimate of 9.3mt. The rise in estimates was largely driven by the better yields, despite dry weather conditions in the country. An unexpected increase in wheat exports from the country would help to reduce concerns about potential disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea region, due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The latest CFTC data show that money managers increased their net short position in CBOT wheat by 6,239 lots for a second consecutive week to 51,546 lots as of 19 November, the most bearish bet since 27 August 2024. The move was dominated by increasing gross shorts by 15,614 lots. Similarly, speculators increased their net bearish bets in soybeans by 13,165 lots after reporting a decline for two consecutive weeks to 67,701 lots. The move again was led by increasing gross shorts by 13,559 lots to 176,921 lots. Meanwhile, the net speculative long position in CBOT corn rose by 4,639 lots for a third consecutive week to 114,628 lots (the most bullish bets since 21 February 2023) over the last reporting week, following a decrease in gross longs and gross shorts by 9,424 lots and 14,063 lots respectively.

US natgas prices drop 8% on less cold forecasts, lower heating demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 8% in volatile trade on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday on rising output and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price drop occurred despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing utilities pulled an expected 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas storage during mild weather and low heating demand last week. That was not far off the 1-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a build of 5 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 30 bcf for this time of year. On its first day as the front month, gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange 26.3 cents, or 7.6%, to settle at $3.204 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, when December futures were still the front month, the contract closed at its highest level since November 2023 for a second day in a row. Wednesday's price drop pushed the front-month out of technically overbought territory, while extreme price swings in recent weeks boosted the contract's 30-day implied volatility to 76.4%, its highest since January. The market uses implied volatility to estimate likely price changes in the future when valuing options contracts. At-the-money 30-day implied volatility has averaged 59.8% so far in 2024, down from 70.3% in 2023 and a five-year (2019-2023) average of 60.1%. In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across parts of the United States caused gas prices to rise to their highest since January in several regions, including the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana, New York, Chicago and the Eastern Gas South hub in Pennsylvania. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts expect producers to boost gas output in 2025 as rising demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increases prices after drillers reduced production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut usage of the fuel. Annual average gas prices at the Henry Hub will soar by over 40% in 2025 after dropping to a four-year low in 2024, according to analysts forecasts. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal now through Dec. 3 to mostly near-normal levels from Dec. 4-12. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 114.5 bcfd this week to 131.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts, however, have noted LNG feedgas flows would be even higher but for issues at Freeport LNG in Texas. Gas flows to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant have averaged 1.7 bcfd over the past two weeks due in part to various problems that caused two of the plant's three liquefaction trains to shut unexpectedly. Train 2 tripped off line on Nov. 15 and again on Nov. 22, while Train 3 shut on Nov. 20.

Controversial Line 5 project faces more legal action in Wisconsin – A legal challenge is expected since the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has granted key permit approvals to a Canadian energy company to reroute its controversial Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin. The DNR’s approval allows Enbridge Energy to begin preparations for the rerouting project. Environmental groups are preparing to take legal action against an upstate pipeline project for which the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources just approved permits, despite overwhelming community pushback. Stephanie Tsosie, staff attorney for Earthjustice, represents the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Tribe, whose lands have been directly affected by Line 5 for years. She said Enbridge still needs federal approval to move forward with construction. “This is not a foregone conclusion that Enbridge is going to have this pipeline operating,” Tsosie pointed out. “There’s a lot of processes, there’s a lot of approvals, and this is just one of them. And we’re ready to stand with the Band and figure out ways to make sure that, whatever approvals there are, that they comply with the law.” She explained the current line is illegally trespassing on tribal lands. Enbridge’s solution is to add 41 miles to reroute it, which would still have dire consequences in the event of an oil spill. A pending lawsuit by the tribe to have the line completely removed from its lands awaits a federal court decision which could halt the project entirely. Labor groups favor the jobs the Line 5 project could bring to the state, and industry and ag groups rely on the fossil fuels the pipeline transports. Environmental groups countered the risk of oil spills and damage to waterways and wildlife is paramount. Evan Feinauer, staff attorney for Clean Wisconsin, said the debate misses the bigger picture by ignoring the current climate threats and their generational consequences. “I just hope that people can hold that long-term view in their heads and think about people beyond themselves, including people who are children today or not even born yet,”

Trump gave Interior nominee one directive for a half-billion acres of US land: 'Drill.' (AP) — Donald Trump assigned Doug Burgum a singular mission in nominating the governor of oil-rich North Dakota to lead an agency that oversees a half-billion acres of federal land and vast areas offshore: “Drill baby drill.”That dictate from the president-elect’s announcement of Burgum for Secretary of Interior sets the stage for a reignition of the court battles over public lands and waters that helped define Trump’s first term, with environmentalists worried about climate change already pledging their opposition.Burgum is an ultra-wealthy software industry entrepreneur who grew up on his family’s farm. He represents a tame choice compared to other Trump Cabinet picks.Public lands experts said his experience as a popular two-term governor who aligns himself with conservationist Teddy Roosevelt suggests a willingness to collaborate, as opposed to dismantling from within the agency he is tasked with leading.That could help smooth his confirmation and clear the way for the incoming administration to move quickly to open more public lands to development and commercial use.“Burgum strikes me as a credible nominee who could do a credible job as Interior secretary,” said John Leshy, who served as Interior’s solicitor under former President Bill Clinton.“He’s not a right-wing radical on public lands,” added Leshy, professor emeritus at the University of California College of the Law, San Francisco.The Interior Department manages about one-fifth of the country’s land with a mandate that spans from wildlife conservation and recreation to natural resource extraction and fulfilling treaty obligations with Native American tribes. Most of those lands are in the West, where frictions with private landowners and state officials are commonplace and have sometimes mushroomed into violent confrontations with right-wing groups that reject federal jurisdiction.Burgum if confirmed would be faced with a pending U.S. Supreme Court action from Utah that seeks to assert state power over Interior Department lands. North Dakota’s attorney general has supported the lawsuit, but Burgum’s office declined to say if he backs Utah’s claims.U.S. Justice Department attorneys on Thursday asked the Supreme Court to reject Utah’s lawsuit. They said Utah in 1894 agreed to give up its right to the lands at issue when it became a state.Trump’s narrow focus on fossil fuels is a replay from his 2016 campaign — although minus coal mining, a collapsing industry that he failed to revive in his first term. Trump repeatedly hailed oil as “liquid gold” on the campaign trail this year and largely omitted any mention of coal.About 26% of U.S. oil comes from federal lands and offshore waters overseen by Interior. Production continues to hit record levels under President Joe Biden despite claims by Trump that the Democrat hindered drilling.

Cleanup under way for fuel oil spill in San Juan harbor -- On Thursday, the U.S. Coast Guard responded to a spill between a tanker and a fuel dock in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The spill was quickly shut off and contained, and cleanup is under way. At about 1930 hours on Wednesday, Sector San Juan received notice from the U.S. National Response Center that a spill had occurred at the Puma Energy fuel dock in San Juan Harbor. During a transfer of No. 3 fuel oil from the tanker Dubai Green to the pierside receiving facility, about 1,000 gallons spilled into the water. The crew detected the spill when they spotted a sheen on the water, and they shut down the transfer operation. Video from the scene shows fuel oil all over the receiving dock, including sections of the gantry above the pier. The sheen covered an area of about 300 feet by 12 feet, and cleanup crews deployed about 1,000 feet of boom to prevent it from spreading. Puma Energy brought in Marine Spill Response Corporation to perform a cleanup, and Puma hired local subcontractor All Environmental Services to assist. The work to remove petroleum from the containment area and from small pockets in the harbor will likely take several days. Coast Guard environmental response officers are investigating the spill and overseeing the cleanup. In the meantime, the Coast Guard has advised local fishermen and members of the public to stay clear of the area and avoid touching contaminated materials. "We are investigating and overseeing clean-up efforts to ensure the right resources are brought into this response to remove this pollution threat and mitigate the marine environmental impacts in the affected area as best as possible," said Chief Warrant Officer Jamie Testa, Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the incident. "This incident highlights the importance of fuel facilities and vessels having updated response plans in place and that those plans are exercised frequently to ensure the quickest and most efficient response possible."

Alberta Plans Legal Challenge to Bypass Trudeau Cap on Oil, Gas Emissions - Alberta intends to invoke legislation allowing it to defy a federally proposed cap on emissions from the energy industry in opposition to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Canadian province, which holds the world’s third-largest crude reserves in its oil sands, plans to introduce a motion to “stop a federal cap from infringing on the province’s distinct jurisdiction,” Alberta’s government said. Trudeau’s government earlier this month announced a plan to implement a cap-and-trade system to require its oil and gas industry to cut emissions as much as 35 percent below 2019 levels. The proposal would go into force in six years. Alberta has vowed to challenge the proposal, arguing it will result in a production cut of at least 1 million barrels a day of oil and gas in the province, while effectively prohibiting any production growth. “Albertans are relying on us to stand firm on this and we will not let them down,” Premier Danielle Smith said in a press conference from Edmonton. The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, passed early in Smith’s term in office, orders provincial agencies to not enforce or aid in enforcing federal rules deemed unconstitutional or “causing harm to Albertans.” Should a cap become law, Alberta will launch an immediate constitutional challenge, the government said. Alberta’s motion would prohibit entry by individuals, including federal officials, onto any oil and gas facility unless they are licensed by Alberta. It also would declare information related to greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas sites as “proprietary information exclusively owned by the Government of Alberta.” Companies would be required to report their emissions directly to the provincial government, which would disclose the data at its own discretion. The province plans to take an active role in strategically selling oil and gas collected as royalties in lieu of cash, Smith said, suggesting the heavy crude could be sold to fill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves or supply the US Defense Department or be sold to buyers overseas who face challenges in securing supplies from companies.

LNG Prices Soar as Europe Outbids Asia for Winter Supply Global natural gas markets are tightening this heating season, leading to higher costs of LNG supply to Europe in what could be a colder winter than the two previous mild winters.Europe has stepped up imports of liquefied natural gas in recent weeks, especially LNG from the United States, where the benchmark gas prices at Henry Hub are significantly lower compared to the European benchmark, the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures.With peak demand season in the northern hemisphere approaching, Europe is competing with Asia for LNG supply, which is driving prices higher and already discouraging some price-sensitive buyers in south Asia from buying LNG cargoes on the spot market.But Europe doesn’t have much choice. It has to step up purchases to meet its rising natural gas demand as colder temperatures settle in while geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty about near-term supply.The European natural gas market has been on edge for weeks with the start of the winter heating season, a massive lull in wind speeds in northwestern Europe, a dispute over deliveries between Austria’s OMV and Russia’s Gazprom, and the end of the gas transit deal via Ukraine which expires on December 31, 2024. Ukraine has said it would not pursue talks about renewing the agreement with Russia.As a result of the combination of all these factors, the front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, have rallied in the past three weeks to hit a two-year high at the end of last week.In the two months since September, Europe’s benchmark gas prices have jumped by about 40%, with the November 22 price topping $51.35 (49 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh). That equals $14.97 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), nearly five times higher than the U.S. benchmark.The widening premium of European prices to U.S. benchmark prices has incentivized moreU.S. exporters to direct their destination-flexible cargoes to Europe. The huge premium of European prices against U.S. prices is set to further incentivize LNG exporters to ship more cargoes to Europe this winter season.The higher European prices are also diverting LNG cargoes initially bound for Asia, as Europe currently commands a price premium. In the past weeks, at least 11 cargoes have been diverted from either Asia or Egypt to Europe, Argus reported last week, citing vessel-tracking data from Vortexa.

EU Goal to Displace Natural Gas with Hydrogen Facing Major Headwinds, Energy Regulator Warns --The European Union (EU) is likely to miss its hydrogen market goals by 2030 without major reforms, derailing a planned transition from natural gas, according to the bloc’s energy regulatory agency. Map showing Europe and proposed hydrogen import routes. In the landmark European Green Deal approved in 2020, the European Commission set a series of policies aiming for a “climate-neutral bloc” by 2050. As a major tool for replacing fossil fuels in power and heavy industry, policymakers also set targets to consume 20 million tons/year (Mt/y) of renewable hydrogen and install 62 GW in electrolyzer capacity by 2030. In its latest hydrogen market report, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) concluded those targets are unlikely to be met without tackling issues that include production cost and infrastructure.

Miami Financier's Bold Bid for Nord Stream 2 Sparks Controversy -- US investor Stephen P. Lynch, who has decades of business dealings in Moscow, has reportedly asked US officials for permission to bid on the sabotaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline if it is auctioned off in a Swiss bankruptcy court, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. Lynch has discussed with US senators, Treasury officials, and State officials the possibility of American ownership of the sabotaged NS2 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. "The bottom line is this: This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era," Lynch told the Journal. Lynch, who lives in South Florida and supports President-elect Donald Trump, sounds like he understands that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is highly probable in Trump's second term. This suggests that NatGas flows from Russia to Germany could restart once again. Beware of sailboats operated by rogue Ukrainian special forces—Lynch is likely well aware of this risk. It is a good question why Lynch has decided to go public about the potential ownership transfer of the 765-mile-long pipeline. WSJ provided more color on the situation: Lynch sought a license from the US Treasury Department in February, according to a letter written by his lawyers at WilmerHale and viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The license would allow him to negotiate for the pipeline with entities currently subject to US sanctions. The letter said there is a hard deadline in January in the Swiss bankruptcy proceeding for Nord Stream 2 to either restructure its debt—which the letter says is unlikely—or face liquidation. Lynch argues that once the war is over it will be tempting for both Russia and its former customers in Germany and Europe to turn on the pipeline, regardless of who owns it. Lynch believes he can purchase the slightly used pipeline - with some wear and tear - for pennies on the dollar (the pipeline was once valued at around $11 billion)... He has told people that he thinks he can buy Nord Stream 2, which has been valued at around $11 billion, for pennies on the dollar, according to people familiar with matter. He has said many investors won't bid because of the complex geopolitics tied to the conduit, and the other bidders are likely to include Russian proxies, Chinese entities or others at odds with US interests. "The Biden administration and incoming Trump administration should be able to agree on this," Lee Wolosky, a former special counsel to President Biden and a friend of Lynch, said, adding, "His background as an American investor who has navigated Russia adeptly makes him well-suited to lead the effort." Lynch's potential move to control NatGas transportation to Europe looks brilliant on paper, but what will stop Western adversaries from sabotaging it afterward?

Russia: Gazprom Unlikely to Sell Nord Stream 2 to U.S. Investor -It is unlikely that Russian gas giant Gazprom, a shareholder in Nord Stream 2, would agree to hand over ownership of the pipeline to a U.S. investor, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saidon Tuesday, commenting on a report that a U.S. businessman plans to bid for the pipeline.U.S. businessman Stephen P. Lynch, who has lived in Russia for two decades and has done business there, has sought a U.S. license to try to buy Nord Stream 2, The Wall Street Journalreported last week.

Global Natural Gas Prices Volatile Amid Tightening Supply, Demand Balance – LNG Recap --Global natural gas prices continued their charge higher on Monday, lifted by colder weather, rising geopolitical tensions and LNG plant outages in Asia. (a chart showing European Union natural gas storage levels by month) Both the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) January futures contracts settled at their highest point of the year last Thursday, finishing at $14.99/MMBtu and $15.07, respectively. JKM spot prices rose above $15 too as prompt buying has heated up this month. TTF gained 2% on Monday and finished just below $15. While weather is expected to be mild most of this week, “slightly below temperatures” are forecast for Northern and Central Europe over the next six to 10-day timeframe, according to Maxar’s Weather Desk.

Asian Supply Outages Ease as Pluto Export Plant Ramps Back Up — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market -- Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has started the process of bringing the Pluto LNG facility in Western Australia back online after an unplanned outage on Monday (Nov. 21). Chart showing Latin America direct-ex-ship prices from Natural Gas Intelligence. The company commenced the restart on Tuesday after a fault in the control system knocked the 5 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility offline. Kpler vessel-tracking data shows the Energy Navigator vessel chartered by Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. is scheduled to arrive for loading at the facility on Thursday (Nov. 28). The Asian market has tightened because of a rally in European gas prices this month, winter spot buying and plant outages at the Brunei, Tangguh and Ichthys LNG facilities in recent weeks. The Japan-Korea Marker prompt futures contract settled at its highest point of the year on Nov. 21 at $15.07/MMBtu, but has since come down.

Competition Among Middle East LNG Producers Continues as UAE, Oman Gain Ground --Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue to meaningfully compete with Qatar for LNG customers, offering supply contracts with shorter terms and more destination flexibility. Bar graph showing natural gas production projects expected to be designed and added to the Middle East separated by project type. Competition among the Middle East’s three LNG producers is growing as each has worked to capitalize on growth in the global gas market by advancing a suite of projects. The moves come as Qatar is advancing projects to increase its LNG production by a staggering 85% from current levels. Oman is turning its focus from crude oil exports to increasing LNG output for existing and new customers under a plan laid out by the sultanate’s energy ministry last year.

Oil Spill at Donges: TotalEnergies Mobilizes to Contain Pollution in the Loire – An oil spill, detected Saturday evening in a pipeline at the TotalEnergies refinery in Donges, caused pollution in the Loire River. The Loire-Atlantique prefecture reported that the leak, caused by a 2 cm breach in a 30 cm diameter pipeline, created a visible sheen covering approximately 500 m² of the river’s surface. Authorities quickly deployed floating barriers to contain the pollution, though weather conditions complicated the operations. The leak, identified at 10:50 PM, was halted by 1:40 AM Sunday, according to TotalEnergies. The company stated that additional intervention measures were completed at 8:50 AM on the same day. The flow of crude oil into the Loire ceased entirely at 3:45 AM, according to the prefecture. Specialized teams have been deployed to permanently seal the breach and prevent further leakage. The amount of oil spilled into the Loire is estimated to be less than 15 m³. Preliminary analyses along the riverbanks detected no significant traces of hydrocarbons, and no abnormalities in air quality were reported. The prefecture also noted that the sheen could naturally dissipate under the influence of wind, eventually moving to the riverbanks. However, authorities and TotalEnergies continue efforts to assess the full environmental impact of the incident. Containment measures remain in place, and teams are working to mitigate potential effects on the local ecosystem. The Donges refinery, classified as a high-threshold Seveso site, is the second-largest refinery operated by TotalEnergies in France, following the Normandy facility. It spans 350 hectares and employs 650 people. The site processes 11 million tonnes of crude oil annually, with a storage capacity of 2.2 million m³. This incident recalls a previous spill in December 2022 when 700,000 liters of gasoline were leaked from the same site. These events raise questions about the safety of infrastructure and preventive measures at sensitive locations.

TotalEnergies invites Mozambique to investigate gas plant massacre – The French energy giant TotalEnergies welcomed a Mozambican government offer to allow an investigation into allegations of a massacre at its gas megaproject in northern Mozambique — and urged an inquiry be carried out “as soon as possible.” The call comes after the company’s Mozambican subsidiary Mozambique LNG said it had conducted its own “extensive research” and “not identified any information nor evidence that would corroborate the allegations of severe abuses and torture.” POLITICO reported in September that a Mozambican military unit operating out of TotalEnergies’ gas plant herded a group of between 180 and 250 people into containers at the energy giant’s gatehouse and kept them there for three months. Eleven survivors, plus two witnesses, testified that only 26 men survived the ordeal. POLITICO published a summary of a survey that identified 97 victims, and listed their causes of death as suffocation, being beaten to death, being shot, being “disappeared” — taken away and presumably executed — and missing, presumed dead after last being seen in the army’s custody.Relatives of the victims told POLITICO they had kept silent about the massacre out of fear of reprisals.Work on the site was halted in 2021 as Islamist militants swept through the region. TotalEnergies and the Mozambican authorities have denied all knowledge of the attack. In a statement published Tuesday, Mozambique LNG noted that in October the Mozambican Ministry of Defence expressed a “total openness and willingness to accept a transparent and impartial investigation.”“Mozambique LNG has invited the authorities of Mozambique to carry out such an investigation as soon as possible,” the statement read. “Mozambique LNG will keep following up with the Mozambican authorities as only they can take the investigations further at this stage.” On November 24, a joint investigation by the French newspaper Le Monde and the investigative news outlet Source Material published similar findings. Two weeks ago, protesters from the Afungi peninsula where the gas plant is located began a blockade at Total’s front gates, holding up signs that read: “Total, we don’t want war. We want our rights.”Friends of the Earth are among a raft of campaigners and lawmakers across Europe calling for an independent United Nations investigation of the atrocity. A spokesperson for the group in France said that by proposing that Mozambican authorities investigate the military’s human rights abusers, TotalEnergies “once again displays its collusion with the very same authorities whose role in and responsibility for these alleged atrocities are currently being called into question.” “Our demand for a truly independent investigation is more needed and urgent than ever,” she said, adding that TotalEnergies’ “complete dismissal of the voices and pain of the victims … reflect very poorly on the company.”

Russia’s Fuel Exports Jump to 8-Month High - Following the end of autumn maintenance season at refineries, Russia’s shipments of refined petroleum products have surged so far in November to their highest level in eight months, data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday. During the first 20 days of November, Russian fuel exports by sea averaged 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 18% compared to October, according to Bloomberg’s estimates on data compiled from analytics firm Vortexa. The surge in refined product exports came as several refineries returned from maintenance, which boosted crude processing rates and also left lower volumes of crude available for exports. While oil product shipments jumped, Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell in the four weeks to November 24 compared to the previous four-week average by the steepest volume since July, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed earlier this week. Russia is estimated to have shipped from its oil export terminals an average of 3.12 million bpd of crude oil during the four weeks to November 24, down by 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week average to November 17, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. Most of the decline in shipments over the past month was seen at Russia’s Western ports on the Baltic and Black Sea, from where the majority of shipments to India depart. Analysts are looking to gain insights into Russia’s crude production and crude processing levels as Moscow classified this information following the invasion of Ukraine. Of the petroleum products exported so far in November, diesel and naphtha shipments jumped by the most since July 2024 and March 2023, respectively, per the data compiled by Bloomberg. Fuel product exports could further climb in the coming weeks as Russia is poised to lift the gasoline export ban earlier than current plans at the end of the year.

Nigeria’s NNPCL restarts Port Harcourt refinery --Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (NNPCL) has completed rehabilitation and restarted processing and production activities for subsidiary NNPC RefChem Ltd.-held Port Harcourt Refining Co. Ltd.’s (PHRC) existing 60,000-b/sd hydroskimming refinery at Alesa-Eleme near Port Harcourt in Nigeria’s Rivers State (OGJ Online, Apr. 6, 2021).As of Nov. 26, 2024, PHRC was operating at 70% of its nameplate capacity as trucks began loading the recently restarted refinery’s initial production of premium motor spirit (PMS; gasoline), automotive gas oil (AGO; diesel), and household kerosine (HHK) for delivery to domestic markets, NNPCL said in a series of releases.Following years of operational challenges resulting in the site’s underperformance, NNPCL said the completed PHRC rehabilitation project enables the refinery to produce:

• · • 1.4 million l./day of PMS via blending with straight-run gasoline (naphtha).
• • 1.5 million l./day of AGO.
• • 2.1 million l./day of low-pour fuel oil.
• • 900,000 l./day of HHK.
• • An unspecified volume of LPG.

· Alongside plans to ramp up PHRC’s operations to 90% of the site’s nameplate capacity, NNPCL confirmed it has made “substantial progress on the new Port Harcourt [r]efinery, which will begin operations soon without prior announcements.”Part of the PHRC rehabilitation and expansion project launched in 2021 under the Nigerian government’s broader program to rehabilitate and optimize processing capacities of its three state-run refineries—which, in addition to PHRC, include NNPC RefChem-held Warri Refining & Petrochemcial Co. Ltd.’s 125,000-b/sd refinery in Delta State, and Kaduna Refining & Petrochemical Co. Ltd.’s 110,000-b/sd refinery in Kaduna State—included a complete overhaul of the 150,000-b/sd co-located at the “new” Port Harcourt complex (OGJ Online, May 3, 2021).Upon NNPCL’s Nov. 26 announcement, both Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and Farouk Ahmed—chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)—separately expressed the federal government’s reassurance of continued support to NNPCL as it works to complete rehabilitation of the KRPC and WRPC refineries.

Oil spill wey burst like rain, sack communities for Bonny Island Rivers state - BBC News Pidgin - Oil spill from one crude oil piping wey allegedly belong to di Nigerian National Petroleum Company limited (NNPCL) don destroy some communities for Bonny local goment area of Rivers State, Southern Nigeria. One of di community elders Seth L. Adolphus tell BBC say di spill happun on Saturday 23 November 2024 for Iloma community. E say di spill quickly spread to oda surrounding communities sake of di strong current of di river as e dey flow down. "Na around seven to 8pm for night na im we hear loud sound. We bin think say na Navy pipo dey work as dem dey near us but we come feel sometin like rain dey fall on di roofs so we run inside. "Na for di morning of Sunday wen day break we see say na oil spill wey happun and di oil don cover di whole river and di smell dey very strong. So we get to evacuate evribodi comot go Bonny main town." 'Oil spill for Rivers don destroy my farmland and contaminate our water' A community leader for Iloma community, Warisenibo Valentine Hart add say di oil spill don affect di community pipo badly becos dem be mainly fishermen but now dem no fit fish again. E say di oil spill don affect di river and vegetation and displace di pipo as dem gatz comot from dia village. "We dey in distress now becos we no fit go fishing or go pick periwinkle as na wetin our pipo dey take survive. All di farmlands dey affected so we need goment to come clean up di place quick-quick for us so we fit go back home, you know say Bonny no get any IDP camp so na friends and family members we dey manage with for Bonny." Seth Adolphus say some officials bin come close di head of di spill to stop further spills but di spread still dey move wit di river tide and e need immediate remediation. "Di oil spill na bad environmental hazard and we want NNPCL to begin immediate remediation work, for di affected areas and communities to check any further devastation" na so Prof Ibitoru Hart tok. Prof Hart na di Chairman Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) and she confam to BBC say di incident happun for pipeline wey dey along pipeline right of way for latitude 4.447338° and longitude 7.192392° for Iloma community, Bonny LGA. For statement wey she sign, Prof Hart say di oil spill don spread reach oda communities like Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma and Burukiri among oda communities for Bonny LGA.

Ruptured Pipeline: Spilled Crude Spreads To More Rivers Communities – Committee - The Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC), has said the recent oil spill that occurred at Iloma community in Bonny local government area of Rivers State, have spread to more communities in the LGA. This is as it warned residents of the impacted communities in the area not to scoop the spilled crude from the rivers and creeks, pointing out that such a t could be dangerous given the inflammatory nature of crude oil. The spill, which occurred as a result of leakage from a ruptured pipeline belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) last Saturday, had as at Sunday, spread adjourning communities, including Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma, and Burukiri, amongst others. But, BECC, in a statement made available to LEADERSHIP in Port Harcourt yesterday, said at the Monday evening, the spilled crude had spread to Greens Iwoama, Banigo Ishileogono, Polokiri, Dema Abbey, Macaulay, Oroigwe, Madupolo, Dappa-Posie, Igonipolo, Akiama, George Pepple, Allison Ishileogono, Amalgamated Agbalama, William Jumbo, Otobie, and Abalamabie, amongst others. The statement, which was signed by the committee’s chairman and secretary, Professor Ibitoru Hart and Sir Amairigha Hart, said it is currently monitoring tidal movements that are conveying the spilled crude oil from the primary impact area to more communities connected to the main creek from Coal Beach, also in Bonny LGA. It reads in part: “The attention of the Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) has been brought to an incident of oil spill on a pipeline along the pipeline right of way at latitude 4.447338⁰ and longitude 7.192392⁰, in Iloma Community and wishes to state as follows: “The Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) hereby confirms that an oil spill has occurred at Iloma Community. BECC has taken note of the impact site and affected sites of the oil spill including the primary area of impact, Iloma Community, and adjoining communities, Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma, and Burukiri, amongst others. “BECC has taken note of the spread of the spilled crude been engendered by tidal movement to even far flung communities such as Greens Iwoama, Banigo Ishileogono, Polokiri, Dema Abbey, Macaulay, Oroigwe, Madupolo, Dappa-Posie, Igonipolo, Akiama, George Pepple, Allison Ishileogono, Amalgamated Agbalama, William Jumbo, Otobie, and Abalamabie, amongst others. “BECC is currently monitoring tidal movements that are conveying the spilled crude oil from the primary impact area to more communities connected to the main creek from Coal Beach to which the Iloma, Epelema, Minima, and other communities’ creeks connect to. “BECC has taken note of the several hectares of farmlands, verdant vegetation, fishing areas comprising creeks, rivers, rivulets and waterfronts severely impacted by the spilled crude oil. For instance, Epelema, Iloma, Orupiri, Minima, Ayaminima, and Oguede have now been rendered inaccessible by outboard powered engine boats due to the high volume of crude oil on the water. No fishing activities can also happen in any of those areas. “BECC has also taken cognizance of the forests around the impacted communities that were splashed with crude oil when the pipeline burst open. This vegetation will be dead in a couple of days, just as the soil underneath cannot be cultivated due to pollution. “BECC is also in the process of checking out the range of aquatic life comprising fishes and other sea foods that have been destroyed due to the spill. These include the tilapia, croaker, mudfish, crabs, reptiles, etc. “BECC has also inspected the pipeline and taken note of the flange on it, the surrounding environment, equipment on site, range of spill, and also spoken to locals on the incident and has reason to believe that the incident was a third party orchestrated incident. “BECC notes with displeasure that the NNPCL either by itself or through its subsidiary would send a maintenance team to Iloma Community without any form of engagement with BECC or the impacted communities. This is a recipe for crisis as it smacks of disregard for Bonny Kingdom, which BECC environmentally represents. “BECC instantly calls on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) to activate containment and remedial measures to checkmate further devastation and take responsibility for the evacuation of Bonny indigenes around the impacted areas both immediate and remote. “BECC further calls on the NNPC to immediately engage with it to fashion out a strategy plan for containment, clean-up and compensation to the impacted and affected communities. “BECC commends the security agencies, the 146 Battalion Nigerian Army and the Nigerian Navy Forward Operating Base for their proactive initiative of asserting security governance around the impacted sites to forestall further encroachments and exposure to danger. “BECC also calls on the people of Bonny in the various impacted and affected communities to remain calm as measures are being taken to remedy the situation. The leaders of the various communities are called upon to interface with BECC to agree on the engagement plan for the resolution of this unfortunate incident.”

Chinese Buyers Soak Up Unsold Oil as Iranian Crude Flows Slow-- China’s independent refiners have snapped up barrels from across the Middle East and Africa as offers of Iranian oil remain scarcer and more expensive than usual, in part due to broadening US sanctions. A large processor bought about 10 million barrels of grades from Abu Dhabi and Qatar, according to traders who asked not to be identified. The cargoes are for loading in December and January, and helped to clear an overhang of unsold crude from previous trading cycles, they added. China’s independent refiners, known as teapots, typically favor cheaper Iranian crude and take around 90% of the OPEC producer’s exports, but a slowdown in the amount of oil available to purchase has forced a change in buying habits. The incoming Trump administration has also led to some large processors backing away from Tehran’s crude due to their exposure to US banking, according to Energy Aspects. Traders and shippers put the scarcity of Iranian supply down to the broadening of US sanctions in October to include more dark fleet tankers plying the Iran-China trade. That move has crimped the number of vessels available for ship-to-ship transfers, tightening supply and driving prices higher. Flows of Iranian oil to China have dipped more than 10% this month compared with October, according to Kpler. Meanwhile, the volume of West African crude is at the highest on a monthly basis in at least two years, partly driven by the spike in Iranian oil prices, Sentosa Shipbrokers wrote in a report. Beijing’s move to issue more import quotas to teapots has also spurred buying activity, traders said. Refiners were asked to submit requests to purchase more crude a few months ago and were provided verbal approvals this week, but some started buying ahead of the confirmation, they added. Refiners in Shandong province collectively sought an allocation of about 3.8 million tons, or 28.5 million barrels, which will be valid until the end of the year, according to traders.

Iranian crude oil offer levels for China's independent refiners rise as supplies tighten | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Iranian crude oil offer levels for China's independent refineries have been rising in November, as suppliers and shipowners remain cautious amid expectations of tighter sanctions under the Trump administration, refinery and trade sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights on Nov. 26. In late November, Iranian Light deals were concluded at discounts in the $2.0-$2.5/b range against ICE Brent futures on a DES Shandong basis, narrowing from discounts in the $2.5-$3.0/b range for deals concluded two weeks earlier, trade sources said. Iranian Heavy cargoes were sold at thinner discounts in the $4.8-$5.3/b range against the same benchmark, compared with discounts in the $5.5-$6.0/b range a few weeks ago. "Iranian crudes have become expensive but are still competitive," said a refinery source in China. "Some independent refineries are willing to buy but [have] failed to source enough feedstock to meet their needs." Preliminary monthly Commodity Insights data show that about 4.5 million mt (33 million barrels) of Iranian crude has been discharged in 2024 for China's independent refineries as of Nov. 25. This suggested that November arrivals could fall from 6.54 million mt (1.55 million b/d) in October.The latest US sanctions on Iran, in response to its missile attacks on Israel, are expected to tighten crude flows to China.Washington broadened the scope of its sanctions Oct. 11 and utilized other sanction authorities to designate 23 vessels and 16 entities involved in the ghost fleet facilitating Tehran's petroleum trade."Fewer [Iranian] suppliers [are] offering cargoes. It looks difficult for them to get the cargoes because of the enhanced US sanctions," said a trade source in Shandong.Another trade source in China said that not many shipowners are willing to do ship-to-ship transfers in East Asia, resulting in reduced volumes of Iranian crude being available to Chinese buyers."The loading volumes from Iran might not fall that much, but fewer [cargoes] have arrived," the trade source said, adding that the volume might fall to about 1.3 million b/d for November arrivals.Iran has 155 shadow ships with 35.7 million deadweight tonnage, including more than 90 VLCCs that are often active in the Persian Gulf, East Asian waters and even occasionally in the Gulf of Guinea.Market participants generally expect US President-elect Donald Trump to adopt a tough stance on Iranian crude exports, which could reduce the cargoes available for China's independent refineries. However, with Iran focusing on its shadow trade, the full effect of Trump's sanctions might be harder to achieve.The average refining margin for processing imported crudes at small refineries in Shandong jumped 26.7% from a week earlier to Yuan 228/mt ($4.33/b) as of Nov. 21, while the average utilization rate at those refineries was around 52.2%, about 0.77 percentage points higher from a week earlier, data from OilChem showed.

Azerbaijan says OPEC+ may extend oil output cuts at December meeting -- OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Dec. 1, Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries. OPEC+, which pumps around half the world's oil, will discuss extending production cuts at the forthcoming meeting, Shahbazov said, but he expressed skepticism about the prospects for the talks. He pointed out that Azerbaijan, an OPEC+ member, seeks to stabilize its oil production until 2030, after it fell from its peak in 2010. His country's oil production in 2024 and 2025 is bound to reach about 29 million tons annually, or 580,000 barrels per day. Azerbaijan's gas exports to Europe are poised to average 12.5 billion cubic meters per annum this year and next. The minister said he expects gas production to reach 50 billion cubic meters this year, of which 25 billion cubic meters will be exported, with production seen to rise in 2025.

Crude oil prices slippery amid signs of escalation in Ukraine war | Euronews --After reaching a two-week high, crude oil prices fell back on Monday as investors rebalanced positions in major asset classes. However, bullish factors remain in the near term as geopolitical tensions rise. Crude oil prices rose to a two-week high amid a major escalation in the Ukraine and Russia war. The Brent futures at ICEsurged 5.8% and the WTI futures at NYMEX rallied 6.3% last week. However, the upside momentum faltered during the Asian session on Monday, most likely due to positions rebalancing in major asset classes. Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone London wrote in a note: "I'd be reluctant to buy into the rally here, though, instead seeking to fade any geopolitical risk premium priced into crude." At 6.30 am CET, the Brent futures fell 0.72% to $74.63 per barrel, and WTI futures declined 0.53% to $70.71 per barrel. The war-induced rally in gold and the US dollar have all lost steam as the precious metal prices slumped 1.7%, erasing Friday's gains, and the dollar index retreated from a two-year high, declining 0.5%. Despite the price retreat, crude markets may maintain bullish trends as the year-end approaches. Geopolitical tensions and a potential revival in China's demands will likely contribute to further rebounds in the oil markets in the near term. Ukraine carried out US-made longer-range missiles targeting a military base inside Russian territory one week ago. In response, Russia warned of lowering its doctrine to use nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine, marking a major escalation in the geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia. The concerns surround potential supply disruptions if Ukraine attacks Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. The escalation may continue this week as Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had been targeted by nearly 500 drones and become "a testing ground" for Russia's munitions. In the Middle East, traders are closely monitoring the risk of a retaliatory strike on Iran's oil infrastructure by Israel amidst escalating tensions between the two nations. According to S&P Global, Iran's crude oil loadings have slowed since October. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board (IAEA) passed a resolution to pressure Iran into a new round of nuclear talks. A meeting between Iran and the European counterparties, Germany, and Britain will be held this Friday, Reuters reported. Parties are progressing toward an agreement before Trump comes into power in January. The US presidential-elect is expected to reinforce restrictions on Iran's oil exports, which could lead to one million bpd cuts, or 1% of the world's supply if this happens. Iran is the world's third-largest oil reserve holder in 2023. However, its production has been limited due to the US sanctions for several years. Expectations for a revival of China's imports in November were another catalyst that buoyed oil prices. China's crude import may reach 11.4 million barrels per day this month due to price cuts, the third-highest monthly shipment this year, according to LSEG Oil Research. A report from S&P Global showed China's oil demand may grow by 1.1% to 17.29 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 1.7% to 17.59 million bpd in 2025. China announced sweeping stimulus measures in September and ongoing implementation of further easing policies to bolster the economy. The recent economic data showed that China's exports surged 12.7% year on year to $309.06bn in October, the highest increase since Mach 2023. China's retail sales, manufacturing activities, and housing markets have all seen better-than-expected readings last month. Despite China's optimism, analysts from Commodity Insights believe that rising production in the US and Canada, coupled with production hikes in the OPEC+, will potentially lead to a balanced demand and supply market, offsetting the price impact of rising demands.

The Oil Market Sold Off Following Reports of a Possible Middle East Peace Agreement - The oil market sold off sharply on Monday following reports of a possible Middle East peace agreement. The crude market posted a high of $71.48 on its opening late Sunday before it began to retrace its previous gains as it failed to test its previous high of $71.51. The oil market sold off sharply and retraced more than 50% of its move from a low of $66.53 to a high of $71.51 as it sold off to a low of $68.74 early in the afternoon. The market was pressured by the news that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The January WTI contract settled down $2.30 at $68.94 and the January Brent contract settled down $2.16 at $73.01. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 3.96 cents at $2.2353 and the RB market settling down 6.09 cents at $2.0005. Axios reported, citing an unnamed senior U.S. official, that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. On Monday, Israel’s government said it was moving towards a ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah but there were still outstanding issues. Separately, a senior Israeli official said Israel’s cabinet will meet on Tuesday to approve a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, while a Lebanese official said Beirut had been told by Washington that an accord could be announced “within hours”. Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless Netanyahu changes his mind”. He said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region within 60 days. The Kremlin said it had noted that “President-elect Donald Trump’s circle was speaking about a potential peace plan for Ukraine while the current U.S. administration of Joe Biden was not and was seeking to escalate the conflict instead.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made his remarks after being asked to comment on an interview that Mike Waltz, President-elect Trump’s pick for national security adviser, gave to Fox News on Sunday. The nominee for national security adviser said that Trump had been “very concerned” about an escalation in fighting between Russia and Ukraine and that the war must be brought “to a responsible end”. The Kremlin’s spokesman said the Kremlin had taken note of the comments and that President Vladimir Putin had repeatedly signaled that Moscow was ready for dialogue over Ukraine. Sources stated that OPEC+ will hold its December 1^st meeting to set oil policy online, with the producer group set to discuss a further delay to plans to increase its output due to weak global oil demand.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 145,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 29^th, increasing available refining capacity by 312,000 bpd. It reported that offline capacity is expected to fall to 21,000 bpd in the week ending December 6^th

Oil falls more than $2 a barrel on possible Middle East peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Monday after multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, citing unnamed senior U.S. officials. Brent crude futures settled at $73.01 a barrel, down $2.16, or 2.87%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $68.94 a barrel, down $2.30 or 3.23%. Israel said on Monday it is moving toward a ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah but there are still issues to address, while Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism but said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not to be trusted. "It seems the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is behind the price drop, though no supply has been disrupted due to the conflict between the two countries and the risk premium in oil has been low already before the latest price decline," said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. Oil markets are being pushed up and down on rising or falling supply disruption fears, Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said in a Monday note. "A report that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu approves Lebanon ceasefire deal in principle could be a bearish catalyst, yet we must see more details as they become available. Last week the world was stunned as Russia launched supersonic missiles" at Ukraine, Flynn wrote in his energy report. Both Brent and US WTI contracts last week notched their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7 after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in a warning to the United States and the UK following strikes by Ukraine on Russia using U.S. and British weapons. OPEC+, at its next meeting on Sunday, may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1, Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters. The group, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies like Russia, has postponed hikes this year amid demand worries. Azerbaijan is a member of OPEC+, which will meet online on Dec. 1.

Oil settles down after Israel agrees to ceasefire deal with Hezbollah (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday, extending the previous day's losses in choppy trade after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, reducing oil's risk premium. Brent crude futures settled down 20 cents, or 0.27%, to $72.81 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $68.77 a barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.25%. The accord between Israel and armed group Hezbollah was expected to take effect on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire and would "respond forcefully to any violation" by Hezbollah. On Monday, oil prices fell more than $2 following multiple reports that the warring sides had agreed to terms of a ceasefire. A ceasefire could pressure crude oil prices because the U.S. administration would likely reduce sanctions on oil from Iran, a supporter of Hezbollah, Both benchmarks briefly jumped more than $1 per barrel during the session. "We popped and dropped around the time news came out of the resumption of OPEC talks," OPEC+ nations are discussing a further delay to a planned oil-output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the producer group said, ahead of Sunday's meeting to decide policy for early 2025. The group pumps about half the world's oil, and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan. "There were embers in the fire this morning with OPEC+ looking to defer production increases again and the Trump tariffs, but those were not enough to move the needle to support prices anywhere above $70 a barrel for WTI," U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Tuesday. Maintaining the flow of energy products across the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada is critical, the top U.S. oil and gas lobbying group, American Petroleum Institute, said. The vast majority of Canada's 4 million barrels per day of crude exports go to the U.S. Analysts had said it was unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the U.S. produces. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.81 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 2.54 million barrels, they said.

Oil Prices Steady After Significant Decline | Rigzone -- In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Christopher Tahir, a senior market strategist at Exness, said oil prices steadied in early trading following a significant decline in the previous session as traders assessed the potential for a ceasefire in the Middle East. “The earlier selloff was triggered by reports indicating that the belligerents in the conflict could reach an agreement, alleviating concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply,” Tahir said in the analysis. “As fears of supply disruptions ease, the market could see a more bearish outlook, although volatility and some risks could remain if the geopolitical situation changes,” he added. The strategist noted in the analysis that, at the same time, OPEC+ could consider maintaining its current production cuts in response to ongoing concerns about weak global demand for oil. “In this regard, traders could closely monitor the organization’s next meeting for any changes in production policy,” Tahir said. “Furthermore, with the potential for increased U.S. oil production, which has remained near record levels in recent years, the market could anticipate additional supply growth,” Tahir warned. “Considering the prevailing global demand-supply imbalance, along with geopolitical developments and policy risks, the medium-term outlook for crude could remain bearish, driven by signs of weaker demand and the likelihood of sustained production increases,” the strategist added. In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, flagged “weakness in the commodities space” yesterday. “Despite a softer USD, there was notable weakness in the commodities space, with both gold and crude (both Brent and WTI) losing around three percent on the day [Monday], in an apparent unwind of the increased geopolitical risk premium priced into both prior to the weekend,” Brown said in the analysis. In another market analysis sent to Rigzone earlier today, Antonio Di Giacomo, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said the price of WTI crude oil saw a notable drop on Monday, “falling by more than $2.00, representing a decline of over 2.50 percent, closing at around $69.00 per barrel”. “Reports suggesting a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon may have primarily influenced this drop,” he added. “Although the markets were affected by these rumors, it is important to highlight that there were no disruptions in oil supply due to the conflict, meaning the global supply-demand balance should not have been altered,” Di Giacomo continued. In the analysis, the senior market analyst highlighted that the decline in WTI reflects how energy markets respond to expectations of changes in geopolitical risks. “Investors, sensitive to any potential disruption in crude oil supply security, quickly react to news suggesting a de-escalation of international tensions. In this case, the possibility of a ceasefire reduced the risk premium associated with oil, leading to a price drop,” Di Giacomo said. “This behavior in oil prices is also framed within a broader context of fluctuations driven by international conflicts. Although the conflict between Israel and Lebanon had not directly disrupted supply, the perception of reduced geopolitical risks alleviated the uncertainty, pushing higher prices,” he added. “It is a clear example of how external factors can influence energy markets beyond the fundamental conditions of supply and demand,” he went on to state. Di Giacomo highlighted in the analysis that, in contrast, last week, the price of WTI “experienced a sharp rebound, driven by tensions in Ukraine”. “These conflicts had raised concerns over the risk of supply disruptions, which led to a spike in crude oil prices, reaching the highest levels since early November,” he said. “Oil price fluctuations reflect market dynamics and the emotional responses and expectations of investors in the face of global uncertainty,” he pointed out. “In this context, it is evident that the oil market is highly sensitive to changes in the geopolitical landscape. Crude oil prices are often more a response to investors’ expectations than actual events,” he continued. In the analysis, Di Giacomo also warned that this week’s drop could be temporary if international tensions rise again, “underscoring the inherent volatility in commodity markets”.

Oil prices rise, with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and Opec+ policy Oil prices edged up on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah and Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, in which the group could delay a planned increase to oil output. Brent crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.10 a barrel by 0750 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.03. Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted the agreement brokered by the U.S. and France. The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border, which has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year. "Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, part of Nissan Securities. "We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the Northern Hemisphere's winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S. and demand trends in China." Heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said that oil prices are undervalued, citing a market deficit and risk to Iranian supply from possible sanctions under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Sources from the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia have said the producer group is discussing a further delay to the oil output increase that was due to start in January. OPEC+, which meets on Dec. 1 to decide policy for early 2025, pumps about half the world's oil and had planned to roll back oil production cuts gradually over 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, as well as rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan. "Our longstanding base case has been that OPEC+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025," Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January. "From the producer group's point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion." In America, President-elect Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stocks fell and fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing API figures. Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, exceeding analyst expectations of a drop of about 600,000 barrels. -

WTI Dips After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw - Despite the Israel-Lebanon truce holding (for now), oil prices inched higher overnight after API reported a sizable crude draw and on speculation that OPEC+ will delay restoring output. “On one hand, OPEC+ appears to be reluctant to unwind, given concerns over weak oil demand and market consensus that 2025 looks like a surplus year for oil balances,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Eric Lee wrote in a note. “On the other hand, deeper cuts also seem unlikely, with prices still above $70 Brent, global observable oil inventories relatively low, and some geopolitical risk still in the market.” Will the official data confirm API's? API

• Crude -5.9mm
• Cushing -734k
• Gasoline +1.8mm
• Distillates +2.5mm

DOE

• Crude -1.844mm
• Cushing -909k
• Gasoline +3.314mm
• Distillates +416k

The official data confirmed a drawdown in crude stocks and at the Cushing hub while Gasoline inventories rose the most since July... Overall, including a 1.17mm barrel add to SPR, crude inventories declined 672k barrels - the most since the second week of October... Source: Bloomberg After last week' dip, US crude production ramped back up to record highs this week... WTI dipped on the smaller than expected crude draw.. Price moves were exacerbated by thin pre-holiday trading, with open interest hovering near monthly lows.

OPEC+ production cuts may support oil prices in near term, Goldman Sachs says --(Reuters) - Crude production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia has declined in compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, supporting a modest near term upside to Brent prices, Goldman Sachs said. Saudi Arabia is more likely to extend oil production cuts because of the recent price drop and we now think that oil production cuts will last until April 2025 instead of January, the investment bank said in a note dated Tuesday. Goldman Sachs maintained its average Brent price forecast for 2025 at $76 per barrel. OPEC+, which includes members of the OPEC and allies such as Russia, is discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the group said. At its most recent meeting on Nov. 3, OPEC+ agreed to delay a planned December output increase by a month. "Any ramp-up in OPEC+ production will be gradual and data-driven," the bank said. Goldman added that rising compliance with OPEC+ production cuts suggests that the group's member countries are working together to stabilize oil prices. Production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia declined by 0.5 million barrels per day in November, Goldman said. OPEC member countries are unlikely to unwind voluntary production cuts in the short term, executives of global commodity trading giants Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. However, despite OPEC+'s production cuts and delays to output hikes, Brent futures have mostly stayed in a $70-$80 range this year, and were trading below $74 on Tuesday. Last week, Goldman Sachs revised Brent prices to average around $80 per barrel this year, despite a 2024 deficit and geopolitical uncertainty, citing an anticipated surplus in 2025.

Oil steady after surprise rise in US gasoline stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, pressured by a large surprise build in U.S. gasoline stocks and worries about U.S. interest rate cuts next year, but prices drew support from concerns about supply eased after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. Brent crude futures settled 2 cents higher at $72.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 5 cents to $68.72. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week to 212.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, counter to analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a draw of 46,000 barrels. Crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, the EIA added, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a draw of 605,000 barrels. Market sources, citing the American Petroleum Institute, had said on Tuesday that oil inventories fell by 5.94 million barrels and fuel inventories rose last week. "It is surprising to see gasoline inventories building so much and implied demand not really budging week-on-week, given expected record travel this Thanksgiving," Oil prices also were dented by U.S. data showing progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled in recent months, which could narrow the scope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. Traders added to bets the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, they anticipate the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meetings in January and March. Slower-than-expected rate cuts would keep the cost of borrowing elevated, which could slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil. Both oil benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah group, effective Wednesday after both sides accepted the agreement brokered by the U.S. and France. The ceasefire started on Wednesday. "The real question will be for how long it (the ceasefire) will truly be honoured," Oil gained support after sources from the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, said it is discussing a further delay to the oil output increase set for January. The group, which produces about half of the world's oil, had aimed to gradually ease production cuts through 2024 and 2025, but weaker global demand and rising output outside OPEC+ have cast doubt on that plan. The decision will be made at a Dec. 1 meeting. The heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab said oil prices are undervalued, citing a market deficit and risk to Iranian supply from possible sanctions when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Sources also told Reuters on Tuesday that crude oil would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Oil industry analysts and traders warned the move would likely raise oil prices for U.S. refiners, squeezing margins and driving up the cost of fuel.

Crude oil prices fall as US gasoline inventory increases - Crude oil futures traded lower on Thursday morning following an increase in gasoline inventory levels in the US for the week ending November 22. At 9.56 am on Thursday, February Brent oil futures were at $72.16, down by 0.19 per cent, and January crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $68.56, down by 0.23 per cent. December crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,808 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5,781, up by 0.47 per cent, and January futures were trading at ₹5,795 against the previous close of ₹5,769, up by 0.45 per cent. The weekly petroleum status report by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) said that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending November 22. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week. As the US heads into the Thanksgiving holiday, an increase in the gasoline inventory levels has raised worries about fuel demand in the US market. US is a major consumer of crude oil in the world market. Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.4 million barrels, US crude oil inventories were about 5 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total products supplied in the US over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels a day, up by 1 per cent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up slightly from the same period last year. US crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels a day last week, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels a day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels a day, 5.5 per cent more than the same four-week period last year. Meanwhile, market is keenly waiting for the outcome of the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies) meeting on December 1. A Reuters report said on Wednesday that OPEC+ is likely to further delay the proposed increase in crude oil production output. It is to be noted here that OPEC+ had planned to gradually roll back oil production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. Factors such as a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside OPEC block have put a dampener on that plan. December natural gas futures were trading at ₹270.20 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹272, down by 0.66 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), December cottonseed oilcake contracts were trading at ₹2,745 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹2,735, up by 0.37 per cent. December turmeric (farmer polished) futures were trading at ₹13,406 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹13,510, down by 0.77 per cent.

Oil Steady in Thin Trading After OPEC+ Delays Supply Meeting - Oil was steady as traders watched for any further clues to OPEC+’s production plans after it delayed a key virtual meeting by four days. Brent crude traded near $73 a barrel after a modest gain on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate close to $69. The producer group is now set to discuss whether to start reviving supplies, which could tip the market into a glut, at an online gathering on Dec. 5. Delegates said earlier this week that talks have begun on delaying the move. Crude has traded in a tight range since the middle of October, flipping between consecutive weekly gains and losses. Prices have been buffeted by fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, waning demand in top importer China and concerns whether President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming policies could affect supply from Russia and Iran. “The crude oil market continues to face uncertainties” around weather, demand and geopolitical developments, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist for Saxo Markets Pte in Singapore. “These, together with market oversupply, raise doubts over OPEC+ unwinding its voluntary production cuts.” Brent futures remain on track for a weekly loss of almost 3% as a cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah removed some risk that the conflict would affect supply from the region or affect shipping. Tensions are rising in Ukraine, however, with President Vladimir Putin warning Russian forces could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with new ballistic missiles. Trading volumes were lower due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US, with just over 2.25 million contracts of WTI changing hands so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s about half the average weekly volume over the past year.

Oil settles down as ease of supply risks drives weekly loss (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Friday and posted a weekly decline of more than 3%, pressured by easing concern over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts. Brent crude fell 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.05%, to settle at $68, from the last close before Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Trading activity was muted because of the U.S. public holiday. For the week, Brent declined 3.1% while WTI lost 4.8%. Four Israeli tanks entered a Lebanese border village, Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday. The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday has reduced oil's risk premium, sending prices lower, despite accusations of violations by both sides. However, the Middle East conflict has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more ample in 2025. The International Energy Agency sees the prospect of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of excess supply, equal to more than 1% of global output. "The updated snapshot insinuates that next year promises to be looser than the current one and oil prices are to average below the 2024 level," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts at the meeting. "Following two postponements, the group has to consider the risk of further price weakness amid the release of currently unwanted barrels, not least because expectations for robust production from non-OPEC+ producers next year could lead to a crude surplus," Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, a Reuters poll of 41 analysts suggests. That marked the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision in the Reuters poll.

Oil prices suffer November drop as Middle East fears ease, OPEC+ delays meeting - Oil futures fell Friday, booking weekly and monthly losses after a cease-fire this week between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah helped soothe remaining worries over a wider conflict that could threaten crude supplies. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - known together as OPEC+ - delayed a planned meeting set for Sunday until Dec. 5.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell 72 cents, or 1.1%, to close at $68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leaving it with a weekly loss of around 4.6% and a monthly decline of 1.8%. WTI futures didn't settle Thursday due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
• -- January Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 34 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, leaving it with a weekly fall of 3% and a November loss of 0.3%.
• -- December gasoline RBZ24 fell 2.97 cents, or 1.5%, to finish at $1.9437 a gallon, while December heating oil HOZ24 declined 0.5% to $2.193 a gallon.
• -- January natural-gas futures NGF25 gained 5% to finish at $3.363 per million British thermal units.

The cease-fire agreement announced earlier this week has been blamed for softness in crude, but prices had steadied ahead of a planned Sunday OPEC+ meeting that was widely expected to see the group announce another delay to its plan to begin unwinding production cuts. OPEC said Thursday the meeting, which will be held online, had been postponed to Dec. 5 because "several Ministers will be attending the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait City." The postponement weighed on crude prices, analysts said. "Officially, scheduling conflicts are cited as the reason, but there is also speculation whether - as has often been the case in the past - there are difficulties in formulating a joint production strategy," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. "However, we suspect that this is more about individual quotas than the overall strategy," she said. OPEC+ had initially planned to begin unwinding around 2.2 million barrels a day of production cuts in October but subsequently delayed the start until Dec. 1. Earlier this month, the group agreed to further delay the production increase until the end of December. Lambrecht said Commerzbank was sticking to its view that OPEC+ is likely to postpone the production increase for at least another three months, "as otherwise there would be a risk of massive oversupply on the oil market."

Hundreds Killed in Heavy Fighting as Syrian Islamist Rebels Push Toward Aleppo -The Syrian Civil War never really ended, but it certainly had quieted down for a time, with various factions confined to various areas, and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seeming stuck in Idlib Province. Today the war is flaring up again in a big way.HTS forces have pushed eastward out of Idlib into the western part of Aleppo Province and toward Aleppo itself, seizing several towns along the way. It is being reported that around 182 people have been killed Thursday alone in the fighting on the ground in the area. That includes 102 HTS fighters and 80 fighters including both Syrian troops and their allies.The battles are still ongoing, and the toll continues to increase all the time. The Syrian military seems to be seeing substantial backing from Russian air assets in the area. The HTS is also reported using Ukrainian drones against the Syrian forces. It has been reported for months that Ukraine has offered “drones for fighters” to HTS, but this would mark the first time such drones are being used in a big way in combat.On top of those killed in the ongoing fighting, the Syrian and Russian air forces have caused substantial civilian casualties. 19 civilians were killed in attacks in and around al-Atareb and Darat Izza, and at least 26 others were wounded. Both of those cities are about 25 km from Aleppo itself, the largest city in Syria, underscoring how quickly the HTS has advanced.A number of other towns and villages reported airstrikes in the area. Al-Nayrab is by far the closest town to Aleppo to have reported strikes, saying they were hit twice. They are only about 10 km from Aleppo, making them virtually a suburb of the major city.HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian Civil War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars. This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.

Hundreds Dead, Fighting Rages as Syrian Islamist Rebels Reach Aleppo -Beginning late Wednesday, the Syrian Islamist rebel faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive out of the Idlib Province into the Aleppo Province. The result is heavy fighting and airstrikes, and it is now being reported HTS has reached the city of Aleppo itself. HTS captured over 50 towns and villages on the way from Idlib Province to Aleppo, which is the second largest city in Syria. The most recent figure available is that as many as 400 people, mostly combatants, have been killed in the fighting. A number of others have also been killed in airstrikesby Syria and Russia’s air forces, at least 19 on Thursday alone. The Russia-backed counter-offensive was aimed at keeping HTS out of the important city, which before the Syrian Civil War was the nation’s industrial hub. It seems HTS has reached at least five neighborhoods of Aleppo, in western districts of the town.Syria’s Army was a lot more upbeat on their prospects, saying they had “repelled” a major offensive into Aleppo, despite evidence that HTS forces are still in the city and some claims their fighter had reached the city’s center. The army also reported that they had reclaimed some towns and villages lost yesterday in the offensive, though that can’t yet be confirmed.It is fair to say the counter-offensive isn’t going as well as planned, and there are some reports indicating that Russia’s heavy air commitment to the ongoing Ukraine War meant a smaller force left behind in Syria, and that force was slow to react to the surprise offensive. Syria’s military has reportedly added special forces into the area of western Aleppo. This is likely a response to how poorly the fight has been going on the ground, and the fact that this fight is including more than just HTS fighters.Indeed, the Turkish-backed Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has joined the HTS offensive, and is fighting against Syrian forces in the same area.HTS has dubbed their offensive operation “Deter the Aggression,” and says the effort is meant to prevent Syria, Russia and Iran from pushing into Idlib Province, which they hold. The fighting has also shut down the M5 highway, which connects Damascus and Aleppo. They have also reportedly neared the M4 highway, which leads eastward out of Aleppo. That’s likely to make deployments of further reinforcements by Syria’s government more difficult in the days to come.HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.

Syrian Islamist Rebels Seize Aleppo, Army Vows Counterattack - After several days of blisteringly fast gain, the Syrian Islamist rebel force led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has forced Syrian Army forces to withdraw and has taken the major northern city of Aleppo. There has been video footage of rebel forces outside the police HQ in central Aleppo, as well as near the historic Aleppo Citadel, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site.The offensive began late Wednesday, with HTS fighters pushing out of Idlib Province and into the Aleppo Province countryside. There was intense fighting both Thursday and Friday, with the HTS, backed by the Turkish-backed rebel factions, capturing scores of towns and villages, By late Friday they arrived at the outskirts of Aleppo, and they pushed into the city itself Saturday. Many hundreds of people have been killed, though exact figures are not available, and may not be for some time.The Syrian Army is talking about launching a counteroffensive to retake Aleppo, and reinforcements are said to be en route to the area. Both main highways leading to Aleppo have been blocked, however, so the trek into the area is likely to be difficult.HTS and associated fighters appear to be in almost all neighborhoods of Aleppo now. They have taken the airport, and Kurdish YPG fighters arepreparing to try to defend the Kurdish neighborhood of the city.Thousands of ethnic Kurds have reportedly fled east into Kurdish-controlled Syria in anticipation of the fight.The fall of Aleppo is hugely significant, not just because of its size. The rebels had a history holding it in earlier parts of the Syrian Civil War, and the Syrian Army’s capture of the city in December 2016 was seen as a major turning point. The civil war never really ended though, and now the city seems to once again be in play for the rebels.But fighting in Aleppo is unlikely to be the end of the offensive. Already it’s being reported that some of the rebel fighters are moving south from the Aleppo Province toward the city of Hama. Hama would be the second major city in the path of the offensive, and if it fell, that would open up pushes toward Homs and even the capital of Damascus.Though the Syrian Army has vowed to reverse the course after recent losses, they have issued a statement trying to blame Israel for the HTS push. The statement insisted the Army was effectively “fighting the military arm of the Israeli enemy, falsely labeled as the ‘Syrian revolution.’” They added that HTS was backed by “thousands of foreign militants” and had heavy weapons and drones. They reportedly got the drones from Ukraine. The statement concluded with the declaration “you are either with the Syrian Arab Army or with Israel.”The Syrian Army isn’t the only one pointing the finger at Israel. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said on Friday that the HTS offensiveserved the interest of Israeli occupation forces. He mentioned an “obvious connection” between recent Israeli strikes on Syria and the rebel push.He’s not the only one making that connection. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford pointed to recent Israeli airstrikes on Syria as well as the air war against Hezbollah, as providing HTS an “opportunity to advance.”Other than Israel, the Kurdish YPG is pointing the finger at Turkey, saying they were behind the HTS offensive. Indeed, Turkish-backed rebels have participated heavily in the offensive on multiple fronts.

Hezbollah Fires Hundreds of Rockets at Tel Aviv, Major Damage Reported - At least 11 people were wounded today as hundreds of rockets were fired by Hezbollah against the major Israeli city of Tel Aviv. A large number of buildings were reported hit in the attack, and there is extensive damage, though exactly how extensive isn’t totally clear at this point.The attacks come after Israel attacked central Beirut with a bunker buster bomb on Saturday morning. At least 29 people were killed in that attack, and Hezbollah’s leader said the strike on central Beirut justified attacks on Tel Aviv.Teams started conducting assessments on the damage in Tel Aviv this evening, though they said full assessments won’t be possible for at least 24 hours. This is one of the largest operations Hezbollah has launched against Israel, and the preliminary assessments is that the damage is in the tens of millions of dollars.Israel’s military initially said 170 rockets were fired at Tel Aviv, and many were intercepted. Since that time, the reports suggest as many as 340 rockets may have been fired, though the injuries are said mostly to be minor, with only one person described as in “moderate to serious condition.”A lot of the images so far show damage to houses and apartments in eastern Tel Aviv, and some cars burnt out in the process. Again, the rockets came close to evening, so it is not possible to say the full extent of the damage yet. These escalating tit for tat attacks comes amid international efforts to broker a ceasefire. Most recently, Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal, and it is awaiting an Israeli response. There were reports, however, that Israel objected to any ceasefire in which France was in any way involved, and that may prove a stumbling block.

Israeli Cabinet: Lebanon Ceasefire Announced, To Begin Tuesday at 9:00 PM EST - In a 10-1 vote, the Israeli security cabinet voted today to accept a ceasefire in Lebanon. The security cabinet was originally supposed to vote at 4:00 PM local time, but the meeting was delayed several hours. The exact terms of the deal are not public yet, but the reports are that this will be a 60-day ceasefire, during which Israel is to remove its ground troops from Lebanon. The Israelis have to report “suspicious movements” to a US-led group before taking action. This was a strong sticking point for the Israeli government, who sought a deal that specifically would not require them to cease firing on Lebanese territory.President Biden says that the deal has been agreed to by both Israel and Hezbollah. He also said it will go into effect at 4:00 AM Wednesday Lebanon time, which is 9:00 PM Tuesday evening EST.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement centered heavily on talking up Israeli attacks on Syria, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip. He insisted Hezbollah was set back “decades,” however, citing that they’d killed “all of the leaders” and destroyed most of the group’s rocket arsenals.Netanyahu suggested the ceasefire is only temporary, and that they will attack Lebanon forcefully if Hezbollah takes any actions they object to. He further insisted that the ceasefire was important to “focus on the Iranian threat,” to “rearm the troops,” and to “isolate” Hamas in the Gaza Strip, saying the Lebanon ceasefire will help Israel in their “sacred mission” in Gaza.His comments focused on talk of achieving a great, but non-specific military victory, and totally changing the face of the Middle East. Hezbollah and Lebanon’s government reportedly approved a ceasefire deal last week, though it is not confirmed that it is the same ceasefire deal Israel has agreed upon. At any rate, the reports indicate that a deal of some sort is imminent.

New Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire in Effect, But IDF Warns Evacuation Still in Effect - At 9:00 PM EST/4:00 AM Beirut time, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefireofficially took effect, potentially ending an ongoing Israeli invasion and repeated airstrikes which have killed thousands and displaced well over a million Lebanese civilians.The deal was brokered by the US, and the Israeli security cabinet voted earlier today to support it. The deal proscribes a 60-day ceasefire in which Hezbollah is to move its armed assets north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese government is supposed to deploy its army into the southern area of the country as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah.Israel, for their part, is intended to withdraw their ground troops from southern Lebanon, and to stop attacking Lebanese territory. If Israel sees “suspicious movements,” US officials say they are to report it to a US-led committee, which would forward the complain to the Lebanese military. It is only after that point that they would be free to respond if Lebanon doesn’t take action.The immediate question must be how the ceasefire will be implemented, and when the Israeli troops will actually leave. Israeli military Avichay Adraee issued a statement after the ceasefire went into effect warning Lebanese civilians against attempting to return to their homes in the evacuation zones, saying the prohibition is still in effect. He said Israel would inform them at a later date when it is safe to return.That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and the seeming escalation of Israeli attacks in the last few hours before it came into effect added to concerns. In those final hours, Israel carried out multiple attacks on the north Lebanon border crossings into Syria, and imposed new evacuation orders in multiple southern suburbs of Beirut.The attacks on the border crossings are noteworthy, because during the war Israel has repeatedly attacked the main crossings through eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley leading into Qusayr. That makes some sense, as the Bekaa Valley is a known Hezbollah haven. The north crossings, on the other hand, lead into Syria’s coastal Tartus Province. Syrian state media reported a number of people were wounded in these attacks.The attacks on southern Beirut seem to be the last thing Israel did before the ceasefire went into attack. Israel issued evacuation orders on southern and central Beirut just two hours before the 9:00 PM ceasefire, and attacks began less than an hour before that deadline.

Ceasefire Falters as Israel Launches Airstrikes, Artillery Shelling on Southern Lebanon - The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire began Wednesday morning. Less than two days later, it seems to be faltering, with multiple reports of Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon, and claims of violations by both sides.Israel carried out an airstrike against the outskirts of Baysariyeh, which is near Tyre. They confirmed the attack, saying they were targeting a Hezbollah storage facility after seeing “terrorist activity.” They added in their statement that they were “acting to enforce violations of the ceasefire.”Though the claims of violations are coming from both sides, so far it is only Israeli forces whose violations actually involve firing. Lebanesepeople continue to try to return to their homes in the south, despite Israel’s military forbidding them to do so.There are multiple reports of Israel carrying out artillery shelling against towns and villages across southern Lebanon this afternoon. Strikes were reported against the towns of Halta, Taybeh, Khiam, and Rmeish. In Rmeish the attack damaged a supermarket and a home. Three were injured in Taybeh.There were also reported Israeli tank shellings in several places, including the village of Markaba. In that incident, a car was attacked and multiple civilians were wounded. Israeli ground troops also opened fire on vehiclesmultiple times across southern Lebanon, incidents which happened both on Wednesday and Thursday.Israel presented the people they were shooting at as a “number of suspects,” and said that any vehicles in southern Lebanon amount to a ceasefire violation. There is no indication vehicles are actually forbidden by the terms of the ceasefire. Shooting at people, as Israel has been throughout the day, is plainly a violation, however.

Israel Attacks Kill 155 Palestinians in Gaza Over 72 Hours - Israeli attacks across the Gaza Strip killed at least 155 Palestinians over 72 hours, according to death toll updates released by Gaza’s Health Ministry.On Saturday, the Health Ministry said Israeli forces killed 120 Palestinians and wounded over the previous 48-hour period. On Sunday, the ministry said 35 Palestinians were killed and 94 were wounded in the past 24 hours.The ministry’s figures are based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Israeli strikes on Sunday included attacks on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza and in the Jabalia refugee camp in the north, which has been under a total siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. The Israeli military issued a new evacuation order for Shejaiya, an eastern suburb of Gaza City, resulting in more forced displacement of Palestinian civilians.Israeli forces again targeted the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beith Lahia, another city that’s been under total siege. The shelling wounded the hospital director, Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, who has been drawing attention to the siege by releasing video statements and talking to media outlets.According to Al Jazeera, Gaza Civil Defence spokesman Mahmoud Basal said that Abu Safia suffered an injury to his back and left thigh due to metal fragments but was now in a “stable” condition in hospital.From his hospital bed, Abu Safia said the attack won’t stop him and other hospital staff from “completing our humanitarian mission, and we will continue to do this job at any cost.”Gaza’s Health Ministry said the latest violence brought its death toll since October 2023 to 44,211 and the number of wounded to 104,567. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli onslaught has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, a total that includes indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.

Northern Gaza: 130,000 Children Deprived of Food and Medicine Under Israeli Siege - The international charity Save the Children said in a press release on Monday that about 130,000 Palestinian children under the age of 10 have been trapped under an Israeli siege in northern Gaza for 50 days.The organization said children living in north Gaza “have been almost completely cut off from supplies of food, water, and medicine since October 6, 2024, when Israeli forces declared the area to be a closed military zone, with the independent Famine Review Committee (FRC) saying that famine is either imminent or likely already occurring in the area.”In early October, Israel ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza and declared the area a military zone as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. The operation has been focused on the cities of Beit Lahia, Jabalia, and Beit Hanoun, which have been under a total siege, and barely any aid has reached Gaza City.Save the Children noted that the UN “also warned nearly a month ago that the entire population of North Gaza governorate was at risk of dying, yet attempts by aid groups to access the area have been repeatedly denied by Israeli forces.” The charity said it had been trying to deliver food parcels to northern Gaza for over seven weeks, but the effort failed, and the aid was re-directed to the south.Ruba, a mother of two in northern Gaza, described her situation to Save the Children. “I am trapped with my children under relentless bombs, rockets, and bullets, with nowhere to run. My mother is paralyzed, and I cannot leave her behind. My brother has been killed, my husband was taken, and I don’t know if he’s alive. Our home was destroyed over our heads, and we survived by a miracle,” she said.“With no food, no clean water, and constant fear, both my children have developed rashes, and my daughter is passing blood, but there is no medicine, no help, and absolutely nothing I can do. They cry and ask me why we can’t just leave, why their father isn’t with us, why we can’t go back to a normal life,” Ruba added.On October 13, the Biden administration sent a letter to Israeli officials that said Israel must allow more aid trucks into Gaza within 30 days. During that 30-day period, the aid situation in Gaza only got worse, and Israel came nowhere close to fulfilling the demands in the letter. But when the deadline came, the Biden administration said there would be no consequences for Israel, and US weapons shipments continue to flow, confirming the letter was just a pre-election public relations stunt.

Putin Says Russia Can Hit 'Decision Making Centers' in Ukraine With Oreshnik Missile - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday suggested Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Ukraine with its new Oreshnik missile as a potential response to Ukraine firing US and British missiles into Russian territory.“The Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Russian Army are currently selecting targets to strike on the territory of Ukraine,” Putin said at a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in Kazakhstan, according to TASS.In response to two recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that used the US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles, the Russian Defense Ministry said it was preparing retaliation.“These targets may include military facilities, defense industry enterprises, or decision-making centers in Kiev,” Putin said.The Oreshnik is a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile that is capable of being armed with nuclear warheads. Russia fired an Oreshnik missile into Ukraine on November 21 in response to US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles being fired into Russian territory for the first time.Ukrainian officials said the Oreshnik was likely not carrying any explosives since it didn’t do any significant damage. Putin said on Thursday that Russia has started the serial production of the new missile.When he announced the first Oreshnik launch on November 21, Putin also warned that he believes Russia has the right to strike the military facilities of countries supplying missiles to Ukraine that are hitting Russian territory.