January’s natural gas price fell 11% to expiration after highest front month close since 2022

US oil prices finished higher for the second time in three weeks on a ​larger than expected withdrawal from US oil inventories and ​on concerns about another escalation in the Mideast .. after falling 1.9% to $69.46 a barrel last week on weak economic data out of China and Europe and on projections for less aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery opened higher in Asia on Monday morning, as markets were relieved that the US had avoided a potential government shutdown over the weekend, ​a​nd edged higher in anticipation of further easing by the Fed in light of softer-than-expected inflation data in a report on Friday, ​but then turned mixed in New York on concerns over weak future business conditions and the expectation that tariffs would increase the cost of living in 2025, and settled 22 cents lower at $69.24 a barrel on a stronger dollar and on concerns there'd be a supply surplus next year…oil prices moved higher on global markets in thin preholiday trading on Tuesday, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data and optimism that global economic activity w​o​uld drive oil demand, but stuck to a tight trading range in early trad​i​ng in New York as traders remained uncertain over a potential supply glut and softening demand in the coming year, before settling 86 cents higher at $70.10 per barrel, supported by lingering geopolitical worries about Russia and the Middle East, with the upside capped by expectations for a crude surplus amid a shaky outlook for demand….oil prices rose amid light trading volumes in Asia early Thursday, supported by expectations of higher demand in China, then turned lower as the gains on hopes of fresh Chinese stimulus faded, and settled 48 cents lower at $69.62 a barrel, as the dollar's strength offset hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China….oil prices were mostly unchanged in Asian trading on Friday, as the holiday-shortened week led to thin volumes while year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing further reduced trading activity, then moved higher in early New York trading, as Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels triggered a "fear bid" for the commodity, and settled up 98 cents, or 1.4%, at $70.60 per barrel, buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from US crude inventories. and thus managed to finish 1.6% higher for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices fell for the first time in three weeks​, as traders pulled out of the expiring January contract amid uncertainty about the January forecast…after rising 14.3% to a 23 month high of $3.748 per mmBTU last week on a second straight abnormally large withdrawal of natural gas from storage, and on forecasts for below normal temperatures in early January, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for January delivery opened higher and rose to a new 23 month high of $3.944 early Monday, as frigid temperatures spread across the country, driving futures and spot price​s higher, but fell back to settle 9.2 cents lower at $3.656 per mmBTU, as slightly milder forecasts for early January triggered a round of profit taking, and reassessment of freeze-off risks….natural gas prices climbed in early trading Tuesday as traders positioned for an expected cold front to start the new year, then rocketed upward through an abridged Christmas Eve trading session, as forecasts pointed to an early January cold snap, and settled 29.0 cent higher at a two year high of $3.946 per mmBTU on an increase in the amount of gas flowing LNG export plants, and on forecasts for more cold weather in January than was previously expected….natural gas prices briefly topped $4 on Thursday before heading lower, amid uncertainty surrounding January forecasts. and settled 23.1 cents lower at $3.715 per mmBTU, as disagreement between weather models sowed doubts about freeze-off risks in January, with volatility heightened by thinned holiday activity and the approaching expiration of the January contract…January natural gas prices plunged through midday trading on Friday even as the February contract – which would take over as the prompt month after markets close​d – showed modest gains, but​  prices for both contracts fell from their early highs as colder weather forecasts for January were offset by a bearish government storage print, and the January contract expired 20.1 cents lower at $3.514 per mmBTU, and thus finished down 6.2% for the week​, while the more actively traded natural gas contract for February delivery settled 6.4 cents higher at $3.383​ per mmBTU, but was only down 0.8% on the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending December 20th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 93 billion cubic feet to 3,529 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 14 billion cubic feet, or 0.4% above the 3,515 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on December 20th of last year, and 166 billion cubic feet, or 4.9% more than the five-year average of 3,363 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 20th of December over the most recent five years….the 93 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 100 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts ahead of the report, but was still more than the 83 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in December of 2023, while ​c​onsiderably less than the average 127 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late December week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 20 indicated that even after a big drop in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the fifth consecutive week, and for 18th time in twenty-six weeks, mostly due to a big increase in domestic demand for oil that the EIA could not account for ...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 178,000 barrels per day to average 6,471,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 665,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,173,000 barrels per day to average 3,722,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,749,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending December 20th, 995,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 558,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 19,000 barrels per day lower at 13,585,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,892,000 barrels per day during the December 20th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,816,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 20th, an average of 205,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 568,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending December 20th averaged a rounded 643,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -643,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…Moreover, since 631,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,274,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, making the week over week changes we have just cited nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 568,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an rounded average of 605,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 37,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-fourth SPR increase in the past sixty-one weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,598,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.2% less than the 6,748,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 19,000 barrels per day lower at 13,585,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 18,000 barrels per day lower at 13,154,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 1,000 barrels per day lower at 431,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.7% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.5% of their capacity while processing those 16,816,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 20th, up from their 91.8% utilization rate of a week earlier, not an unusual change at the end of the annual Autumn slowdown, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change to producing winter fuel blends…the 16,816,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.6% more than the 16,558,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending December 22nd of 2023, but 1.0% less than the 16,980,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending December 20th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 93.3%, then fairly normal for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 51,000 barrels per day to 9,923,000 barrels per day during the week ending December 20th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 173,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was still 1.1% less than the 10,030,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over ​the week ending December 22nd of last year, and 3.4% less than the gasoline production of 10,269,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending December 20th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 178,000 barrels per day to 5,272,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 135,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 3.0% more than the 5,116,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending December 22nd of 2023, but 2.3% less than the 5,394,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending December 20th, 2019…

After this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the sixth consecutive week and for the twelfth time in seventeen weeks, increasing by 1.630,000 barrels to 223,667,000 barrels during the week ending December 20th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,348,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 81,000 barrels per day to 9,008,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 98,000 barrels per day to 657,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 41,000 barrels per day to 1,053,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-six weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.1% below last December 22nd’s gasoline inventories of 226,054,000 barrels, and were still about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the tenth time in fourteen weeks, decreasing by 1,​694,000 barrels to 116,461,000 barrels over the week ending December 20th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,180,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 245,000 barrels per day​ to 4,253,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates rose by 226,000 barrels per day to 1,440,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 16,000 barrels per day to 180,000 barrels per day..​.After 28 inventory withdrawals over the past 48 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were still 0.6% above the 115,765,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on December 22nd of 2023, even as they are now about 10% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after the big decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time over the past year, decreasing by 4,237,000 barrels over the week, from 421,016,000 barrels on December 13th to 416,779,000 barrels on December 20th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 934,000 barrels over the prior week… Even with this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories rose to about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 25% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of December over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this December 20th were 4.3% less than the 436,568,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on December 22nd of 2023, and 0.5% less than the 418,952,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on December 23rd of 2022, and 1.6% less than the 423,571,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on December 17th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of December 27th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 20th) and this week’s (December 27th) count, the third column shows last week’s December 20th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 29th of December, 2023…

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Gas drillers ask to open 4,700 acres of Ohio wildlife areas for fracking – At least one interested driller asked the state to open an additional 4,360 acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area and 383 acres of Jockey Hollow Wildlife Area, both in Belmont County, to oil and gas development.The applicants, whose identity is shielded by state law, want to access oil and gas thousands of feet beneath the wildlife areas via well pads adjacent to the park.Earlier this month, the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission accepted a $152,000 bid plus 18% royalty fees from Gulfport Energy to allow hydraulic fracturing – fracking – under 30 acres of Egypt Valley. The new request, posted shortly before Christmas, would significantly expand operations in the roughly 18,000-acre wildlife area.Elsewhere in Belmont County, the commission was asked to open 383 acres in Jockey Hollow, a 3,469-acre wildlife area with a history of surface mining established in 2004 near Egypt Valley. To access the gas, drillers start at well pads adjacent from the wildlife areas. They drill down thousands of feet before turning laterally, reaching a mile or more underground to tap into the shale underground. From there, they pump at high pressure huge volumes of a mixture of water, sand, and noxious chemicals to free methane from shale, before pumping it all up to the surface to dispose of the wastewater and sell the oil and gas.State law shields the identity of the requesters until the commission undergoes the months long process of granting a land nomination and selecting a winning bidder after a competitive process.If it agrees to open the additional acreage in Egypt Valley, it would be the second-largest tract the commission has leased for oil and gas development.Since the commission formed in earnest in 2023, its members have already opened 5,700 acres of Salt Fork State Park to Infinity Natural Resources, of West Virginia, for $58 million plus a 20% royalty fee. Bids are underway, meanwhile, for another 884 mineral acres of the parkland.Other companies, exclusively from out of state, have purchased mineral rights to other smaller parcels around the state. Houston-based Encino Energy bought 303 acres of Valley Run Wildlife Area; Houston-based EOG Resources bought 85 acres of Keen Wildlife Area; and Encino bought 66 acres of Zepernick Wildlife Area. The bid process is also underway for parcels at Leesville Wildlife Area.Gov. Mike DeWine signed GOP-backed legislation in 2023 that force started the technically existent, but functionally dormant, state lands leasing program created more than a decade prior. Soon, DeWine could sign related legislation that would extend the default lease term of a fracking operation on state lands from three years to five years (drillers would still have the opportunity to renew for an additional three years).

OH Court Case Mixed Bag for Landowners re Post-Production Deductions - Marcellus Drilling News - A lawsuit that slipped by us (and is still playing out) that began in Carroll County, OH, has major ramifications for landowners and drillers across the state. The case is EAP Ohio LLC v. Sunnydale Farms LLC, et al. in which 13 oil and gas leases were executed in 2008 and 2009 in Carroll County, Ohio. The 2008 Leases contained an identical royalty clause that limited post-production deductions to three categories: transportation, compression, and/or dehydration to deliver the gas for sale. After drilling wells on those properties, EAP (Encino Energy) deducted several other items from royalties, including costs incurred for processing, treating, fuel, gathering, and trucking. The lawsuit tussles with the issue of how terms are defined and whether these “extra” categories are allowed under the lease’s language.

Trump administration to boost US LNG exports - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) export in the US is expected to accelerate under the administration of Donald Trump who takes office on Jan. 20, according to a senior expert and new report projection. Following Trump's inauguration, for the next four years, US LNG exports are expected to increase substantially, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research fellow at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Anadolu. With 5 LNG export facilities currently under construction in the US, exports are set to double, Corbeau said. 'The first two LNG terminals, Plaquemines and Corpus Christi, are about to start, with Golden Pass probably starting in early 2026. The last two, Rio Grande and Port Arthur, will start later in the decade,' she explained. The US LNG sector will double its export capacity within the next five years, according to a report, titled 'Major New US Industry at a Crossroads: A US LNG Impact Study – Phase 1', co-authored by S&P Global Vice President Daniel Yergin. This expansion is expected to generate an average of 500,000 jobs annually and contribute an additional $1.3 trillion to the US economy by 2040, according to the report. Last year, the US emerged as the global leader in the LNG market, capturing a 21% share—an important rise from having no exports in 2015. The country exported 84.3 million tons of LNG, outpacing Australia's 78.9 million tons and Qatar's 78.5 million tons. Earlier this year in January, the Biden administration paused LNG export approvals due to immense pressure from environmental groups. 'President Trump has announced he will make the US energy dominant again. I think on US LNG, they are already and expected to remain so,' Corbeau said. Noting that several countries are importing US LNG, including Türkiye, Corbeau said, 'The interest in US LNG is that it is flexible, so companies which have long-term US LNG contracts can use this LNG for their domestic market or to supply other markets if the LNG is not needed.' Corbeau emphasized Türkiye's growing LNG trade with the US, citing the 2024 agreement between Türkiye's Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS) and TotalEnergies as an example. This 10-year deal secures the supply of 16 billion cubic meters of LNG.

Plaquemines Ships First Cargo to Germany — Venture Global LNG Inc. said Thursday that it has shipped its first commissioning cargo from the Plaquemines LNG facility it is building in Louisiana. The company’s Venture Bayou vessel left the terminal on Monday with a cargo headed for the Brunsbuttel floating storage and regasification unit in Germany. It was purchased by German utility EnBW AG. Vessel-tracking data shows the shipment is scheduled to arrive Jan. 8. Plaquemines produced its first LNG on Dec. 14. It has received regulatory approval to introduce feed gas to four blocks consisting of 8 smaller, modular liquefaction trains. Wood Mackenzie said in a note to clients Thursday that the facility currently has the capacity to produce more than 600 MMcf/d of LNG with four blocks being commissioned.

Kinder Morgan’s Evangeline Pass Expansion Ramps Up Alongside Plaquemines LNG Terminal Startup Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is adding 100,000 Dth/d of firm service to the 2 Bcf/d Evangeline Pass pipeline to support ramping operations at Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Plaquemines export facility. (A map showing Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast natural gas assets and nearby LNG export terminals.) FERC authorized KMI subsidiary Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co. LLC (TGP) to place into service part of a new nine-mile, 36-inch diameter looping pipeline operated by the Southern Natural Gas Co. LLC (SNG) in St. Bernard Parish, LA. by Jan. 1. TGP said the facilities, which include an interconnection valve and pipe launcher, would increase firm capacity on the Evangeline Pass project to 400,000 Dth/d.

IPO Filing Shines Light on Venture Global LNG Operations -- Information published in Venture Global LNG Inc.’s long-rumored initial public offering (IPO) has provided some of the first public views of the firm’s spot-market sales from Calcasieu Pass and its vision for the future of U.S. natural gas exports. Founded by industry outsiders Mike Sabel and Bob Pender in 2013 as a nimble technological answer to massive stick-build export projects, Venture Global has used smaller modular equipment to bring projects online faster. It would continue to be controlled by Sabel and Pender after the IPO, according to a prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As the Virginia-based company moves to advance a pipeline of projects in Louisiana that could reach 104 million tons/year (Mt/y) by the middle of the next decade, management is seeking to raise $3-4 billion from investors in an IPO disclosed last week.

US natgas prices hit 23-month high on increased LNG feedgas, heating demand - US natural gas futures hit a 23-month high on Tuesday in thin pre-holiday trading, supported by an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants, and forecasts for more cold weather in January than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 29 cents higher, or 7.9%, to $3.946 per million British thermal units, their highest close since January 2023. “As most of the marginal demand comes from the residential and commercial sectors due to heating needs, weather is the most important factor that determines the gas price in winter. We still have a lot of winter left and the uncertainty about weather tends to push up gas prices,” Financial firm LSEG estimated 376 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 370 estimated on Monday. “Much of today’s rebound appears prompted by less bearish temperature outlooks within the 6–14-day portion of the NOAA forecast,” Mild temperatures are expected to subside later next week in limiting downside possibilities, Ritterbusch said. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 103 bcfd so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, rising to 132.6 bcfd this week from 124.7 bcfd in the prior week. Meanwhile, Venture Global LNG wants to extend the force majeure at its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant in Louisiana to 2025, delaying first supplies under long-term contracts to three years after starting production, according to its initial public offering document. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were slightly up on Wednesday in thin trading ahead of Christmas holidays across Europe, as uncertainty remains over Russian gas flows when the Ukraine gas transit deal expires at the year-end.

US natural gas prices retreat from 2-year peak on less cold forecasts - US natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Thursday from a near two-year high in holiday-thinned trade as forecasts for less cold conditions in the short term overshadowed support from a rise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 20.2 cents, or 5.1%, to $3.74 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:59 a.m. EST (1318 GMT) after hitting their highest level since January 2023 earlier in the session. “This morning we’re pulling back, mainly because there is some doubt as to how cold January will be and we are definitely going to see a bit of a warm-up at the start of the year,” Financial firm LSEG forecast 393 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the 10-year normal of 427 HDDs and 30-year normal of 432 HDDs. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, falling to 119.8 bcfd next week from 132.9 bcfd this week. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Draw Of -93 Bcf Misses Expectations On December 27, 2024, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage declined by -93 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -99 Bcf. In the previous week, working gas in storage decreased by -125 Bcf. At current levels, stocks are 14 Bcf higher than last year and 166 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of the year. High storage levels have served as the key bearish catalyst for natural gas markets in 2024, but traders have started to focus on other catalysts in recent months. Natural gas moved away from session highs as traders reacted to the report. The storage draw missed analyst expectations, which is bearish for natural gas markets. Traders will also stay focused on weather forecasts. The recent changes in forecasts for the beginning of January pointed to colder weather, which may provide additional support to natural gas markets. The situation in Europe may also impact the dynamics of U.S. natural gas markets. Russia is expected to stop the transit of natural gas to EU through Ukraine, which will likely increase demand for U.S. LNG in the first half of the next year.

Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Storage Facility Not Closing Until Demand Falls, California Regulator Says -- Southern California Gas Co.’s 86 Bcf Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility is to continue operating, but with a roadmap toward its eventual closure if local consumption drops sufficiently, state regulators said. Graph showing SoCal Citygate versus Henry Hub natural gas prices and SoCalGas core storage. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved a measure establishing that if forecast peak gas demand in Southern California over a two-year horizon falls below 4,121 MMcf/d, regulators would begin a review process to shutter the facility. “This decision puts forward a path to the closure of Aliso Canyon that is achievable, realistic, and protective of families and businesses who are struggling to pay energy bills,” said CPUC President Alice Reynolds. “Huge progress is underway to bring online clean energy resources and drive down demand for natural gas-fired power plants.

Virtual Reality Revolutionizes Training in Oil, Gas, GlobalData Says - Virtual reality revolutionizes training and operations in the oil and gas industry. That’s what GlobalData said in a release sent to Rigzone recently, which highlighted a recently published strategic intelligence report from the company on virtual reality in oil and gas. The report “presents an overview of the adoption of virtual reality in the oil and gas industry”, the release pointed out. “Virtual reality primarily has applications around training across the oil and gas value chain, i.e., from rigs and pipelines to refineries,” GlobalData said in the release. “Leading oil and gas companies such as Shell, BP, Chevron, and ExxonMobil, have adopted VR to train as well as aid regular workflows in operations,” the company added. “It offers a cost-effective means to acclimatize the workforce to various environments through immersive training programs. It also offers safe environment for the workforce to understand the workflows by participating in virtual walk-throughs, without being in proximity of heavy industrial equipment,” it went on to state. The applications of virtual reality technology in the oil and gas industry include generating training modules for the workforce and visualizing the asset under consideration for planning and decision making, GlobalData noted in the release. It added that virtual reality “plays a key role in the digital twin set up, helping companies recreate scenarios through detailed simulations”. In the release, Ravindra Puranik, an oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said, “virtual reality enhances the operational safety through immersive training programs”. “It can help develop safety procedures at production facilities to address smaller accidents as well as for emergency response,” Puranik added. “Industry technicians work in hazardous environments, such as offshore rigs or at a densely packed equipment maze in a refinery,” the GlobalData analyst continued. “Virtual reality can be used to relay important information and instructions to the technician onsite, without the need to fly out experts to that location or carrying detailed instruction manuals for referencing,” Puranik went on to state. Puranik also highlighted in the release that “various aspects of a production platform can be modeled through virtual reality simulations to enhance the understanding of personnel for on-field tasks”. “They can simulate the processes using virtual reality before implementing on the operational floor. It thus reduces the scope for human errors during critical operations,” Puranik said. “Besides, designers and engineers can better visualize the layout under development using virtual reality technology. This can potentially help to improve designs, and carefully plan its execution to optimize the project costs,” the GlobalData analyst continued.

European Gas Jumps as Putin Doubts New Transit Deal Can Be Made - European natural gas advanced after Russian President Vladimir Putin cast further doubt on the likelihood of a deal to maintain flows to Europe via Ukraine. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 5% Friday, the most in a week. Putin said Thursday it would be impossible to arrange a new transit contract before year’s end, when the current agreement expires. Central European nations that still buy Russian gas have floated alternative solutions to keep the fuel flowing across Ukraine, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected any arrangement that sends money to Russian coffers while the war continues. As things stand, there will be no transit of Russian gas from Jan. 1, Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Friday. Still, talks continue in the remaining days of the year and a last-minute deal cannot be completely ruled out, especially given the history of such arrangements at the last moment during previous gas disputes between the two nations. If Ukraine receives any proposals from the European Commission on continuing transit, it is ready to consider them and guarantee “energy security for the region,” Tykhyi said. Some consultations in “different formats” are taking place, but “not with Russia, of course,” he added. Meanwhile, no capacity on the Slovakia-Austria border point was booked for January at auctions on Friday. Putin on Thursday acknowledged that the various proposals on the table — allowing Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey or Azerbaijan to take control of the gas shipped via Ukraine — are difficult to realize because Gazprom PJSC has long-term contracts that are hard to change. The flows at risk account for about 5% of European demand. While that’s a small slice of the market, the loss of those volumes would force countries to rely more heavily on piped gas from Norway or liquefied supplies from the US. Traders in Europe are closely monitoring the region’s gas storage, with levels now below 75%. Putin also said a lawsuit from Ukraine’s Naftogaz that alleges Gazprom hasn’t fully paid for transit services is another barrier to a deal. That claim must be withdrawn for any transit agreement to be reached, he said. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 3.38% to €47.27 a megawatt-hour at 12:13 p.m. in Amsterdam. The January contract expires Monday.

U.S. LNG Could Help Fill EU Supply Void if Russia-Ukraine Natural Gas Transit Deal Expires -Extending a gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine that expires Dec. 31 appears unlikely as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed last week he would not renew the agreement with Gazprom PJSC. Bar chart showing Russian LNG exports by destination over the past five years. With the European gas market anticipating the end of deliveries via Ukraine, prices have continued to rise as the five-year transit agreement nears its expiration. Prior to Russia invading Ukraine in 2022, Europe received nearly 150 billion cubic meters (Bcm), or about 5,297 Bcf, of Russian pipeline gas through several transit points, including those in Ukraine. Russia now moves about 15 Bcm, or 530 Bcf, through Ukraine.

TTF Rally Continues as Russia-Ukraine Natural Gas Transit Deal Nears Expiration — European natural gas prices gained for a third consecutive session on Monday amid colder weather and more competition for LNG cargoes with Asia. (a chart showing European Union natural gas storage levels) The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) February contract gained 3% on Monday to finish at $13.95/MMBtu, continuing last week’s rally, when the contract finished 9% higher for its first weekly gain of the month. The Japan-Korea Marker is trading at roughly the same level in Asia, where prices have come down in recent weeks and brought more buyers onto the spot market.

Trump ramps up EU trade war threat unless bloc buys American oil and gas - — U.S. President-elect Donald Trump issued a fresh threat of a trade war to the European Union on Friday, urging it to purchase more American oil and gas or face a barrage of tariffs. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. “Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!! It was not immediately clear which EU official Trump had “told” this to, if anyone. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill did not provide clarity on who was involved in the conversation Trump alluded to, but said: “The EU and US have deeply integrated economies, with overall balanced trade and investment. We are ready to discuss with President-elect Trump how we can further strengthen an already strong relationship, including by discussing our common interests in the energy sector.”

EU Still Relies on Russia for a Fifth of Its Gas Needs: Official Q3 Report -- Twenty percent or 12.7 billion cubic meters (448.5 billion cubic feet) of natural gas imported into the European Union in the third quarter came from Russia, up two percentage points from the previous quarter and five percentage points against the third quarter of 2023, the European Commission has reported. The increase comes as the EU prepares for the expected end this month of the transit agreement allowing the export of Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine. However, compared to the first quarter of 2021, before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the figure marks a 64 percent fall in the Russian share of EU gas imports, according to the Commission’s quarterly gas market report. The 27-member EU imported 64 billion cubic meters of gas in July–September 2024, down eight percent quarter-on-quarter and six percent year-on-year. Of the total, pipeline gas accounted for 67 percent and liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined to 33 percent, said the report on the Commission’s website. Russia accounted for 20 percent of gas imported by the EU via pipeline in the third quarter. Norway continued to be the EU’s top pipeline gas supplier with a share of 47 percent, followed by North Africa (16 percent). The United Kingdom was the EU’s fourth-biggest pipeline gas source accounting for 11 percent, while Azerbaijan came fifth with six percent. Compared to the second quarter, the pipeline figures showed Russia’s share rose from 17 percent while the share of the others in the top four sources in the second quarter — Norway, North Africa and Azerbaijan — declined in the third quarter. Besides the increase in Russia’s share in terms of percentage, this decrease in the others’ share was absorbed by the United Kingdom, which displaced Azerbaijan as the EU’s fourth-biggest supplier. For LNG, Russia also accounted for 20 percent, while the United States remained the EU’s biggest source accounting for 40 percent. Qatar came third accounting for 12 percent. European gas spot prices — based on the virtual trading platform Title Transfer Facility — averaged EUR 35.4 ($37) per megawatt hour (mWh) in the third quarter. That is seven percent higher than the same quarter in 2023 and 11 percent higher than the prior quarter in 2024. However, compared to historic peaks in the third quarter of 2022, the average spot price in the third quarter of 2024 represents an 82 percent decrease. “In the third quarter, prices continued to rise throughout July and August continuing the rising trend observed already in the second quarter”, the report noted. “The average monthly price was 32.2 EUR/MWh in July and 37.8 EUR/MWh in August, when they peaked at 39.3 EUR/MWh on 8 August following Ukraine incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region on 6 August and threatening to cut gas flows through the only remaining entry point of Russian gas into Ukraine at the Sudzha interconnection. “As gas flows continued at the usual rate despite the continuation of the conflict, European gas markets calmed down and prices declined to a monthly average of 36.2 EUR/MWh in September”.

"Theoretically, Yes": Goldman Says US LNG Can Replace Russian LNG Imports To EU - Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, published a note to clients outlining five key questions and answers about the US-EU liquefied natural gas trade. This comes just days after President-elect Donald Trump threatened the EU with a barrage of tariffs unless Brussels ramped up purchases of American LNG. For context, last Friday, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" Dart told clients that the US is already Europe's largest LNG supplier and a key source of supply growth. She said replacing Russian LNG with US LNG imports could raise shipping costs and European prices to incentivize re-routing cargoes. She said such a shift would have minimal impact on US LNG export revenues, as total export capacity remains fixed, adding exporters with long-term contracts with proposed US LNG projects would benefit. However, Europe's decarbonization strategy may limit the willingness of European companies to make long-term NatGas commitments with US exporters. Dart laid out key questions and answers about the US-EU LNG trade that help clients understand that US LNG Gulf exports can "theoretically" replace Russian NatGas flowing into the EU.

• 1. How much US LNG is exported to Europe? US LNG exports averaged 91 mt over the past year (Dec23-Nov24), of which 47 mt or 51% were delivered to Europe. US LNG exports to Europe have grown significantly in levels and as a share of total US LNG exports since the European energy crisis in 2022, peaking in 2023 (Exhibit 1).
• 2. Are US LNG volumes sold in the spot market or are they contracted? The vast majority of US LNG sales are under contract. That said, US contracts typically have flexible destination ports, in that the buyer is not obligated to deliver to a particular location. This allows buyers of US LNG to re-sell or re-direct cargoes to higher-paying destinations. This was evident during the European energy crisis, when European gas prices increased sharply relative to the rest of the world. Even as total US LNG exports grew, this worked as an effective incentive for US LNG deliveries to non-European destinations to contract by 41%, while European deliveries increased by 197%[1], as seen in Exhibit 1.
• 3. What portion of European LNG imports come from the US? The US has become the single largest source of LNG to Europe, averaging 46% of imports into the region over the past 12 months (Exhibit 2). Most European LNG imports are sourced from Atlantic Basin suppliers to minimize shipping costs. Importantly, the US is also the primary source of likely European LNG import growth, based on long-term LNG contracts signed by European buyers since the start of the Ukraine war. US volumes contracted by European buyers in the period add to just under 16 mtpa, which is more than with any other single supplier globally (Exhibit 3).
• 4. Can US LNG replace Russian LNG imports into the EU? Theoretically, yes. US LNG deliveries to non-EU countries are currently approximately 18 mtpa above the levels observed during the peak of the European energy crisis, suggesting there is enough flexibility in the market to replace Russia's current 17 mtpa of LNG exports to the region. However, such a reallocation of flows might offer little benefit, if any, to Europe or the US. Less optimal routes for LNG deliveries (for example, longer routes for Russian cargoes) would likely lead to higher freight costs. In addition, European import costs might go up in order to motivate the re-route of US cargoes that would have otherwise opted to deliver elsewhere.Total US LNG exports would also not increase as a result of this reallocation, given that US LNG export capacity would not be impacted in the process.
• 5. How could Europe support growing US LNG exports?Additional long-term contracting by European buyers with proposed US LNG projects would be the most impactful measure the EU could take to support higher future US LNG exports, as this would increase the likelihood such contracted liquefaction projects reach a final investment decision (FID). As of now, the forward curve for European gas prices suggests new long-term US LNG export contracts are in the money through at least 2027 (Exhibit 4). That said, Europe's decarbonization goals might limit European companies' appetite for long-term commitments to grow natural gas use. In fact, when we look across all long-term LNG contracts signed since the start of the Ukraine war, European companies are far behind Portfolio player companies and Asia importers (Exhibit 5).

It appears that Goldman believes Trump's 'America First' policy of replacing Russian LNG to Europe with American LNG is "theoretically" possible.

Russia Ready to Send Gas to Europe via Several Routes, Novak Says - Russia is ready to continue gas exports to Europe through several routes just as a contract to transit the fuel via Ukraine is expected to end this year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. It is up to authorities in Kyiv and the European Union to agree on the future of gas transportation, Novak said Wednesday in an interview with state-run Rossiya 24 TV channel. “We, in turn, have always stated that we are ready to continue supplying gas not only via the existing link” through Ukraine, he said. The looming end of supplies through Ukraine comes with significant concerns for nations such as Slovakia which relies heavily on Gazprom PJSC to meet demand, despite much of Europe weaning itself away from Russian piped gas. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has indicated his country won’t transit Russian-origin gas unless he has assurances the Kremlin won’t benefit financially while the war continues. It coincides with forecasts for colder weather across much of Europe, which is likely to increase demand for gas just as stockpiles deplete faster than normal. A tight market makes it challenging for traders to secure enough gas for next year as they vie with Asia for seaborne supplies of liquefied natural gas. Russia sends gas to Europe through various routes. Besides Ukraine, the fuel is transported via a leg of the TurkStream pipeline that crosses the Black Sea. Each of the two routes currently ships around 15 billion cubic meters per year. Supplies are also sent in tankers as LNG. Novak said Wednesday that total gas exports to Europe exceeded 50 billion cubic meters in the first 11 months of this year. In September, President Vladimir Putin said Russia is also ready to resume gas supplies to Europe via the last remaining link of the controversial Nord Stream pipeline across the Baltic Sea. Despite political pressure, “Russian gas is more attractive price-wise and logistically” for regional buyers, Novak said.

OECD Fails to Agree Ban on Foreign Fossil Fuel Financing -- Talks on a plan by wealthy nations to throttle tens of billions of dollars in public support for oil and gas projects have broken down without agreement, weeks before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. The EU, UK, US and other countries had sought the deal to limit export-credit agency finance for global fossil-fuel projects under the umbrella of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, a group of market-based economies. While improving transparency in export financing remains a target, the likelihood of a broader deal to curb support for hydrocarbon projects is now remote, said senior US officials, who asked to speak anonymously as the deliberations are private. The failure is a blow for climate activists, who saw the proposed finance curbs as a critical way to free up funding for emission-free energy projects around the globe. Where the US under departing President Joe Biden had rallied behind additional restrictions, these are unlikely to win support under Trump, who has campaigned on promises to unleash American oil and gas development and is pushing allies to buy more US energy. “Transparency measures are not good enough,” said Adam McGibbon, a campaign strategist at the Oil Change International advocacy group. “We cannot afford another penny for fossil fuel expansion if we want to preserve a liveable planet.” Although the EU advanced a plan last year, talks only began in earnest on a new, US-proffered compromise approach in November, after Trump won the presidential election. The negotiations had previously stalled for months because of concerns from the US Export-Import Bank, an independent agency whose charter prohibits denying financing against any particular industry, sector or business. During a meeting in Paris in November, the US proposed incorporating a technology-neutral, emissions-based threshold for financing that was seen as compatible with the charter. That policy innovation allowed the US to support the EU proposal while still maintaining fidelity with the statutory constraints imposed on the US bank, one of the officials said. But it wasn’t enough. Weeks of frenzied negotiations — including a session in Paris and subsequent virtual meetings — couldn’t overcome concerns about national security, competition and emissions accounting advanced by South Korea and Turkey. Countries also wrestled with technical questions around the appropriate methodologies for calculating the emissions of various energy projects, necessary to ensure transparency and national-level compliance, one of the officials said. OECD members have a longstanding agreement that effectively allows them to use export-credit agencies to give preference to domestic companies in international deals without running afoul of World Trade Organization rules. The club’s 38 countries have an incentive to abide by OECD policies governing the practice since they help ensure a level playing field. For years, the group has precluded support for unabated coal projects; the latest effort would have put most oil and gas limits off limits too. Export-credit agencies in OECD countries financed an average of $41 billion annually in oil and gas projects, according to data compiled by environmental advocates. Even in the US, that finance has continued to flow, despite Biden’s pledges to cut it off.

YPF, Shell Agree to Partner on Flagship Argentina Export Project - Argentina’s state-owned YPF SA said last week it had reached a tentative deal with Shell plc to develop LNG exports from the country. The agreement must still be finalized. It calls for cooperation in developing the first phase of the Argentina LNG project, which would include floating liquefaction units with the capacity to produce 10 million tons/year (Mt/y) of the super-chilled fuel. YPF is aiming to export $15 billion of LNG by 2030 by bringing online floating units that would use natural gas from the Vaca Muerta Shale. It is unclear whether former partner, Malaysia’s Petronas, would now back out of the project.

Peru declares environmental emergency after oil spill – (Reuters) – Peru’s government on Thursday declared an environmental emergency in a northern coastal area, where state oil firm Petroperu last weekend spilled a crude oil shipment into surrounding waters of the Pacific Ocean. A vessel carrying out pre-shipment maneuvers caused the spill on Saturday at a terminal of Peru’s Talara refinery in northern Peru. Petroperu has not said how much crude was spilled into the sea, but Peru’s environmental watchdog OEFA said in a preliminary report it has affected some 10,000 square meters of surface seawater, and the environment ministry said it has affected at least seven beaches, as well as local wildlife. Peru’s environment ministry said the 90-day emergency aims to “guarantee the sustainable management of the area and the execution of recovery and remediation works to mitigate environmental contamination.” Petroperu said on Wednesday it had deployed clean-up brigades from the moment of the spill and coordinated with the fishermen’s union and local authorities so that local economic and tourist activities could continue normally. Petroperu said in a statement that it maintains cleaning personnel, boats and drones in the affected area to “carry out preventive monitoring to guarantee the early detection of any eventuality.” Local authorities have said the spill has damaged coastal plants and animals such as crabs, while fishermen say the spill has stopped them from working. “We have not been able to go out for six days now,” fisherman Martin Pasos told local radio RPP. “It is chaos, what happened in Lobitos. So far, we have not had any response from the oil company.”

Sasol reduces gas output at Mozambique plant due to unrest - (Reuters) – South African petrochemical company Sasol has reduced natural gas production at its central processing facility in Temane, Mozambique, to ensure the safety of its staff and assets amid widespread post-election unrest, its spokesperson said. South Africa receives the bulk of its gas imports via the Rompco pipeline that links onshore gas fields in Mozambique to Sasol’s Secunda industrial complex in Mpumalanga province, before being piped onwards to clients in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal regions. “We have informed various gas users and our customers that we are not able to supply gas at full production rates to maintain stability of the gas value chain infrastructure and pipeline network,” Alex Anderson, a Sasol spokesperson said late on Wednesday. Mozambique has been wracked by unrest following a disputed election in October that saw ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo elected as president. The unrest has already affected the operations of foreign companies including the Australian mining firm South32 and led to the temporary closure of the main border crossing with neighbouring South Africa. Civil unrest escalated when the Constitutional Council on Monday confirmed long-ruling party Frelimo’s victory. On Tuesday, at least 21 people were killed in the unrest which on Wednesday spread to some prisons and saw 33 people killed. Western observers said the election was not free and fair, saying there were irregularities in the tabulation process and a lack of transparency in the election period. “The situation around the central processing facility is calm and there has been no security or perimeter breach,” Anderson said, adding that the safety of staff, service providers and communities was their main priority.

Oil Spill Ravages Russia's Black Sea Coastline (Reuters) - Volunteers struggled on Friday to shovel up tons of sticky oil from Russia's Black Sea coastline following what President Vladimir Putin has called an ecological disaster. The oil spilled from two ageing Russian oil tankers that were severely damaged by a weekend storm in the Kerch Strait that separates southern Russia from Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. One of the vessels split in half, and a crew member was killed, while the other ran aground. At the sea's edge, volunteers shovelled oil and blackened sand into white sacks to be taken away in trucks, as more viscous black tar drifted in on the waves. "I've never seen anything like this. I can't even really imagine it. It seems to me that nature will be affected for many decades to come," said one of the volunteers, a woman who gave her first name as Tatiana. "Even when you remove the top layer of sand, then you step on it and fall through, because there is still fuel oil under the sand." Volunteers have set up a rescue centre for stricken sea birds such as cormorants, which flapped their wings in distress as oil was wiped from their plumage and syringes were used to feed them. The head of the centre, Evgeniy Vitishko, said some 500 birds had been treated, but more than 30 had died. The Kerch Strait is a route for exports of Russian grain and fuel products. The two ships were carrying some 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products in total, of which 40% is estimated to have leaked into the sea. On Thursday one of the ships' captains was placed in investigative custody for two months and the other was put under house arrest, both on suspicion of violating maritime safety rules. The disaster happened in an area that provides an important habitat for seabirds and dolphins. Among the worst hit locations is Anapa, a popular tourist resort that is known for its golden, sandy beaches. State news agency TASS said the contaminated area included more than 45 hectares of a protected nature reserve. It quoted the emergencies ministry as saying that 6,000 rescuers and volunteers were taking part in clean-up efforts, and more than 3,300 tons of contaminated sand and soil had been collected.

Environmental Disaster in Kerch Strait: The Aftermath of a Massive Oil Spill --The Kerch Strait, near Russia's Crimea, has been the site of a major oil spill, leaking 3,700 tons of fuel oil after two Russian tankers were damaged during storms. Cleanup efforts involve thousands of volunteers, with significant environmental damage reported, including affected wildlife and contaminated coastlines. In the Kerch Strait, near Russia's Crimea, the cleanup continued on Sunday following a devastating oil spill from two storm-damaged Russian tankers, affecting the region's environment severely. Over 7,500 volunteers mobilized to rescue wildlife and clean the contaminated shores, yet thousands of tons of polluted material were still being removed as of Sunday afternoon, local authorities reported. Despite claims of progress in the cleanup, oil continued to wash ashore, and concerns over state support have grown, as calls for sanctions against Russian tankers intensify amid this ecological crisis.

Krasnodar Declares Regional Emergency as Black Sea Oil Spill Cleanup Stalls - The Moscow Times --Authorities in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region have declared a regionwide state of emergency as cleanup efforts for an oil spill along the Black Sea coast stall.The spill occurred on Dec. 15 after two Russian-flagged oil tankers were damaged during a storm, releasing thousands of tons of heavy fuel oil — known as mazut — into the Black Sea. Emergency officials reported Monday that the spill had polluted approximately 55 kilometers (34 miles) of coastline.Authorities in affected coastal communities, including the resort city of Anapa, had previously declared local emergencies to address the growing layers of oil washing up on beaches. However, residents and volunteers argued that the spill warranted a national-level emergency, which would unlock additional resources for the cleanup.On Tuesday, Russia’s top investigator, Alexander Bastrykin, ordered law enforcement authorities to launch a criminal probe into alleged “failures” in addressing the cleanup. “Unfortunately, the discharge of oil products onto the shores of Anapa and the Temryuk district has dragged on and shows no signs of stopping,” Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram as he announced the regional emergency.According to Kondratyev, initial expert assessments suggested that most of the oil residue would settle on the seabed, making it easier to collect. However, he noted that warmer temperatures were causing the oil to rise to the surface and wash ashore.The regional emergency declaration will allow Krasnodar authorities to allocate additional resources, mobilize emergency services and request federal assistance if needed.At his annual press conference on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin blamed the oil tankers’ captains for the disaster, claiming they ventured out to sea without authorization.Meanwhile, volunteers and activists have criticized regional authorities for their slow and disorganized response to the environmental crisis. Many volunteers have been forced to fund cleanup efforts independently, purchasing equipment and supplies out of pocket.

Oil spill may have polluted 200,000 tons of soil (AFP) — An oil slick from two damaged tankers off the coast of southern Russia this month may have polluted up to 200,000 tons of soil, Russia’s minister of natural resources said on Monday. “The volume of polluted soil could reach 200,000 tons,” Alexander Kozlov said at a meeting broadcast by the Zvezda channel on Telegram. On 15 December, two Russian oil tankers, the Volgoneft-212 and the Volgoneft-239 were hit by a storm in the Kerch Strait, with one sinking and the other running aground. The strait separates southern Russia from the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. The ships were carrying 9,200 tons of fuel oil, around 40 percent of which may have spilled into the sea, according to Russian authorities. President Vladimir Putin last week called it an “ecological disaster.” Fuel oil was found along dozens of kilometers of beach, with the seaside resort of Anapa particularly hard hit. The port city of Kerch, in annexed Crimea, also saw patches of fuel oil arrive on its shores, according to images broadcast by local authorities. Volunteers in white protective clothing have been clearing up beaches in the region, according to images published on Monday by regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev. “Volunteers said that last night almost everything had been cleaned up, but during the night the waves deposited fuel oil again,” he said. Local authorities also broadcast images of oil-spattered birds being treated by volunteers. Ten dolphins may also have been killed by the oil spill, the specialist Delpha center said on Sunday, adding that tests were needed to confirm the cause of death. “This is an extremely alarming situation,” the scientific institution, which protects dolphins in the Black Sea, said on Telegram.

Oil spill prompts national emergency in Russia --Moscow on Thursday declared a national state of emergency following an oil spill caused by two separate incidents involving Russian tankers in the Black Sea. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations said in a statement that a severe storm hit the two tankers on December 15, causing one to split in half and the other to run aground. This incident resulted in an oil spill, polluting the shores of the famous Anapa resort and surrounding areas, as well as causing serious problems for wildlife. The Ministry stated that more than 10,000 people are working to contain the oil spill and clean the affected beaches.

Russian scientists criticise cleanup efforts after oil spill in Black Sea Russian scientists have criticised the effort to clean up oil that has washed ashore from two oil tankers in the Black Sea, saying it lacks sufficient equipment.On 15 December, two Russian oil tankers, the Volgoneft-212 and the Volgoneft-239 were hit by a storm in the Kerch Strait, with one sinking and the other running aground.The strait separates southern Russia from the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.The ships were carrying 9,200 tonnes of fuel oil, about 40% of which may have spilled into the sea, according to Russian authorities.President Vladimir Putin last week called it an “ecological disaster”.Thousands of volunteers were mobilised to remove oil-sogged sand from nearby beaches. But scientists say the volunteers do not have the necessary equipment. A graphic of Kerch Strait where the tankers sank“There are no bulldozers there, no trucks. Practically no heavy machinery,” said Viktor Danilov-Danilyan at a news conference.Danilov-Danilyan is the scientific head of the Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and served as Russia’s environment minister in the 1990s.The volunteers have only “shovels and useless plastic bags that rip apart”, he said. “While the bags wait to finally be collected, storms arrive and they end up back in the sea. It’s unthinkable!”Public criticism of the authorities is rare in Russia.Up to 200,000 tonnes of sand may have been contaminated with oil, Russia’s minister of natural resources said on Monday.Nearly 30,000 tonnes have already been collected, said Krasnodar region governor Veniamin Kondratyev on Wednesday.Sergei Ostakh, a professor at the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, said the oil could soon reach shores in Crimea.“No one should have illusions it will stay clean,” he said, calling for quick action.The oil spills may have killed 21 dolphins, the Delfa dolphin rescue centre said, although additional tests were needed to confirm the cause of death.

Finland Police Investigating Oil Tanker Involvement in Power Cable Rupture Finland Police Investigating Oil Tanker Involvement in Power Cable Rupture 'The repair work is estimated to take several months', Fingrid said. In a statement posted on its website on December 26, the Finland police said it is investigating “the rupture of the Estlink 2 power transmission cable within Finland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Gulf of Finland”, adding that it is also “looking into other possible damages in the maritime area”. The statement revealed that the Eagle S vessel’s “involvement in causing the rupture is under investigation”. It noted that “due to actions taken by the authorities”, the tanker entered Finland's territorial waters. The statement went on to reveal that the Helsinki Police Department and the Border Guard “have conducted a tactical operation on the vessel”. “The authorities have taken investigative measures on the vessel, with access there provided by the Finnish Border Guard and the Defense Forces helicopters,” the statement said. “At this stage, the case is being investigated as aggravated criminal mischief. In this respect, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) is responsible for leading the criminal investigation,” it added. “Customs is making preliminary inquiries on-site in regard to an aggravated regulation violation and is looking into details concerning the cargo. For the purposes of the criminal investigation, the police are working closely and exchanging information with Estonian authorities,” it continued. “The police are investigating the incidents, and more information on the case will be provided as soon as possible,” it went on to state. The Finland police statement highlighted that the Eagle S tanker is registered in the Cook Islands. Reuters reported in an article published on December 26 that, according to MarineTraffic data, Caravella LLCFZ owns the Eagle S. That Reuters article also reported that, according to MarineTraffic, Peninsular Maritime acts as a technical manager for the Eagle S. MarineTraffic.com categorizes the Eagle S as a crude oil tanker sailing under the flag of Cook Islands. A statement posted on Fingrid’s website on December 25 stated that the EstLink 2 electricity transmission link between Finland and Estonia had failed. “The EstLink 2 electricity transmission link between Finland and Estonia was disconnected from the grid after noon on Wednesday,” the statement noted. “The Finnish and Estonian transmission system operators Fingrid and Elering immediately started investigating the fault with the authorities and work will continue until the fault has been located,” it added.

USA Oil Exports to China Dwindle as Demand Wanes, Buying Shifts - US crude exports to China plunged by almost half this year as shifts in the nation’s economy weighed on demand and it bought more barrels from other countries including Russia and Iran. Exports of US oil to China plunged to 81.9 million barrels over the course of the year, down 46% from 150.6 million barrels last year, according to data from Kpler. That knocked China down to the sixth-largest buyer of US crude, from second last year. China’s slowing economic growth and its increasing use of electric vehicles and energy sources such as liquefied natural gas are reducing the country’s appetite for crude, with its imports from all nations sliding 7.2% from a year earlier. That softening demand in China has helped drive global oil prices lower this year, and the outlook for 2025 is a top focus for the market. China also is shifting its sources of oil and imported about 26% of its seaborne crude from Russia, Iran and Venezuela this year, up from 24% a year earlier, the Kpler data show. Overall, the country still relies primarily on the Middle East, accounting for about 60% of seaborne oil imports. Meanwhile, Europe has become an increasingly important destination for US crude, driven partly by the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate oil in dated Brent, a European benchmark. The continent has been the top destination for US crude for three years since supplanting Asia as the biggest buyer after the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Netherlands continues to import the most crude from the US, taking in 194 million barrels in 2024, a 12% increase from last year, the Kpler data show. South Korea was the second-largest importer of US oil in 2024, buying around 166 million barrels. South Korea is working to make up for the loss of some crude from Kazakhstan after the nation began shipping more oil to Italy.

India Takes the Lead in Oil Demand Growth - For a few years now, forecasters and market analysts have been expecting India to become the largest oil demand driver in the world in the medium and long term, surpassing China’s growth rates. This has now happened as early as this year, amid growing demand for fuel transportation in India and slowing gasoline and diesel demand in China due to the advance of electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks in the world’s top crude oil importer.India surpassing China as the world’s top driver of oil demand growth isn’t surprising at all. The surprise, if any, came from the fact that this is happening a bit earlier than many forecasters had expected a year or two ago. Almost every year between 1998 and 2023, China’s oil demand growth has surpassed India’s. But in 2024 and 2025, it will be India that will drive the increase in the world’s oil consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December.India is expected to account for 25% of global oil demand growth this year and next, the EIA reckons. This year, Indian oil consumption growth is estimated at around 220,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared to China’s 90,000 bpd growth.In 2025, Indian oil demand is set to grow by 330,000 bpd. China will see a higher growth rate next year compared to this year’s weaker-than-expected increase. Yet, at 250,000 bpd growth in 2025, China will still lag India’s consumption increase, according to the EIA. Although India’s growth in percentage and volume terms exceeds China’s growth in the administration’s forecast, China still consumes significantly more oil—around triple the total amount India uses.And that is a key reason why China’s weak demand this year has been weighing on oil prices and wrong-footing oil producers.OPEC has been downgrading its global oil demand forecasts for this year for several consecutive months. The cartel’s latest monthly report contained the fifth straight downward revision to global oil demand, largely owing to weaker-than-anticipated Chinese demand.The International Energy Agency (IEA) also said in its monthly report in December that “Non-OECD demand growth, notably in China, has slowed markedly,” but acknowledged that emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.Over the past year, China’s economy has faltered, with growth below expectations. The property crisis has hit construction activity and diesel use with it, while EV and LNG truck sales have soared, displacing some growth in gasoline and diesel. Consumption of diesel has even dropped in some months this year compared to the same months of 2023.China’s oil demand could peak as early as next year as the penetration of electric vehicles and LNG trucks is accelerating, state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) said earlier this month. Although some of the weakness is attributable to China’s weaker economic performance, the shift toward EVs and LNG trucks is removing some road fuel demand permanently, analysts say.While oil demand in China has been sputtering this year, India’s has increased by higher percentages despite the seasonality of consumption with marked slowdowns during the monsoon season in the world’s third-largest crude oil importer. Due to India’s strong economy, population growth, and emerging middle class, the country’s demand for oil is set to continue growing for many more years, analysts and forecasters say. That’s in contrast with the recent oil demand growth leader, China, where the structural shift in transportation is slowing growth rates.OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2050 says that India, Asia outside China, Africa, and the Middle East will be the key sources of incremental demand in the coming years. Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22 million bpd between 2023 and 2050. India alone will add 8 million bpd to its oil demand by 2050. China, for its part, will see its oil demand increase by 2.5 million bpd, according to OPEC. In the near term, Indian refiners are on the lookout for funding to build new refineries as they seek to expand their refining capacity to meet growing domestic demand for fuels amid higher-than-average economic growth and rising middle-class numbers.For example, state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is said to be in talks with major local banks to secure a loan of about $3.8 billion, which it will use to expand the capacity of one of its refineries. Another state-owned refiner, Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, is reportedly in discussions with banks to obtain a loan of $3.33 billion (280 billion Indian rupees) that would help it build a refinery in the state of Tamil Nadu in southern India. India also aims to be a refining hub in Asia as it is boosting refining capacity and expects to continue relying on fossil fuels until at least 2040, Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said earlier this year.

Oil spill from Mettur plant spreads deeper into Cauvery, raises safety concerns for drinking water : An oil spill from the Mettur Thermal Power Plant (MTPT), triggered by a coal bunker collapse, has spread out to a vast stretch of the Cauvery river, raising concerns about  aquatic life, winged visitors, and also possible contamination of drinking water. “As several drinking water pumping stations are located downstream from Mettur in the Cauvery river stretch, the {ow of contaminated water, probably containing toxins, should be restricted immediately. Minimal traces of oil have already reached Chekkanur barrage in the mainstream Cauvery. Necessary water quality tests should be done to ensure the safety of the drinking water. Even though a cleanup is under way, it should be done scientizcally as the oil spill is gradually entering the mainstream river,” claimed a study by Suzhal Arivom, an NGO. The oil spill was zrst noticed by local people on December 20, and a zeld study by environmentalists on December 23 revealed its spread to around one km. This seems to be the zrst instance of an oil spill in this region and it is impacting Cauvery’s ecosystem. Unlike marine oil spills, which appear thicker because of the high density of the salt water, oil spills dissolve quickly in freshwater because of their low density and form a thin layer of oil on the surface of the water. “A more scientizc approach is necessary as thin oil coating can spread across a wider area in freshwater, making it difzcult to determine by physical examination the extent of spread. As the dam is nearing its full capacity and with a likely release of water anytime soon, prompt clean-up and mitigation measures should be taken to minimise these impacts further downstream,” claimed the study's lead investigator, requesting anonymity. Farmlands on the Cauvery surplus water stretch have already been impacted by a layer of oil settling on crops. It may also impact aquatic life, as around 36 indigenous zsh species have been recorded in the stretch up to Chekkanur Barrage, where traces of oil have reached. Many rare and migratory bird species have been recorded by the Salem Ornithological Foundation in Mettur. “To contain the oil {ow, long {oating booms, interconnected barriers, skimmers and absorbent pads should be deployed, rather than manual cleaning to effectively restrict the oil from entering the mainstream Cauvery river,” he added. Meanwhile, an ofzcial with the MTPP said they have engaged local zshermen to remove the spilled oil. “Using paddy hay, barriers were created to prevent oil from spreading from the stagnant water. The oil-mixed water was removed in ten tankers on Tuesday and 16 tankers on Wednesday. The spill was only in stagnant water and, perhaps, there is no possibility of it contaminating drinking water. We are desperate to adopt a scientizc cleaning method, but couldn’t get access to those facilities,” the ofzcial said. Two workers died in the collapse of the coal bunker on December 19

Libya’s oil production surpasses annual target | The Libya Observer The National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that daily crude oil production has exceeded this year’s target, reaching 1,405,609 barrels of crude oil and 52,633 barrels of condensates. In a statement on Wednesday, the NOC credited this achievement to the dedication of workers across production sites despite delays in the disbursement of the 2024 budget. The corporation confirmed that plans are underway to increase production further in the coming years, following the launch of a bidding round for oil and gas exploration and production-sharing agreements. The initiative is expected to attract international investment, boost revenues, create job opportunities for local youth, and promote economic growth. The NOC reaffirmed its commitment to developing Libya’s oil sector and positioning it among leading global institutions while contributing to the country’s economic growth.

Iraqi oil output falls again in November -- Iraqi oil production continued a four-month slide, falling to its lowest level since June 2023 as the Oil Ministry tried to improve compliance with an OPEC-plus quota agreement. Federal output was just 4.20 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, down from 4.28 million bpd in October, according to an Iraq Oil Report analysis based on data gathered independently from producing fields.* Production controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was roughly steady month-on-month at about 290,000 bpd.

Oil firms in Iraqi Kurdistan demand compensation of $24 billion - Iraqi News (IraqiNews.com) – Nine oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region of Iraq requested compensation of $24 billion because of the suspension of oil exports through Turkey. Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed on Monday that the Iraqi judiciary denied the Iraqi Ministry of Oil’s request to terminate these companies’ contracts with Iraqi Kurdistan, Shafaq News reported. The Karkh Court of Appeal canceled previous court decisions that considered the contracts concluded between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and oil companies invalid, according to Al-Marsoumi. Gazprom Neft, Addax Petroleum, Dana Gas, DNO, Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, HKN Energy, ShaMaran Petroleum Corp, and WesternZagros are the nine oil companies. Since March 2023, crude oil flows along the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline, which formerly handled around 0.5 percent of the world’s oil supply, have been suspended due to legal and financial uncertainty. After the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris decided in March 2023 that Ankara had broken a 1973 treaty by enabling oil exports without the federal government’s approval, flows via the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline were stopped. Several foreign oil companies have halted production, and shipments have not yet resumed despite multiple discussions between officials in Iraqi Kurdistan, the federal government in Baghdad, and Turkish authorities.

Crude oil futures rise after US avoids govt shutdown - The Hindu BusinessLine - Crude oil futures traded higher on Monday morning as markets heaved a sigh of relief after the US avoided a potential government shutdown over the weekend. At 9.57 am on Monday, March Brent oil futures were at $72.93, up by 0.51 per cent, and February crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $69.86, up by 0.58 per cent. January crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,961 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹5,938, up by 0.39 per cent, and February futures were trading at ₹5,954 against the previous close of ₹5,924, up by 0.51 per cent. Fears of a shutdown rose in the US after the President-elect Donald Trump criticised a funding bill. He also proposed a revised bill that sought to increase the debt limit. The revised bill was rejected by the lawmakers. However, the market players were relieved after the US Congress passed a spending legislation late on Saturday night avoiding the possibilities of a week-end shutdown in the US. The US President, Joe Biden, approved the spending bill providing government funding until March. A US shutdown would have impacted the travel during the holiday season in the US. This, in turn, would have impacted the demand for commodities such as crude oil. Meanwhile, the latest PCE price index data in the US also supported the prices of crude oil. This preferred inflation gauge of the US Federal Reserve read lower than expected for November. This raised hopes of further rate cuts in 2025. A reduction in interest rates would help boost demand for commodities such as crude oil. The fears of a potential trade war between the US and European Union (EU) surfaced after the US President-elect, Donald Trump, warned of tariffs on the EU, if it did not conduct large-scale purchases of oil and gas from the US. January natural gas futures were trading at ₹298.50 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹291.10, up by 2.54 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), January jeera contracts were trading at ₹24,100 in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹23,970, up by 0.54 per cent. January guarseed futures were trading at ₹5,283 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹5,272, up by 0.21 per cent.

Oil rates surge on Monday as US inflation data indicates slowdown -Oil prices climbed at the start of trading on Monday after U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown, renewing hopes for further monetary policy easing next year to bolster global economic growth and oil demand, according to a UK news agency. This optimism contributed to early gains in the energy market as traders speculated on the potential for more supportive conditions in 2024. Brent crude futures rose by 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to USD73.20 a barrel by 01:41 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 31 cents, or 0.5 percent, to USD69.77 a barrel. The modest gains marked a recovery after a challenging week for crude prices. Last week, oil prices dropped by more than 2 percent due to concerns over global economic growth and subdued demand, following cautious signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy easing. In addition to U.S. policy considerations, market sentiment was influenced by research from Sinopec, Asia's largest oil refiner, which projected that China's oil consumption would peak by 2027. This forecast added pressure to prices amid broader uncertainties about long-term demand trends in the world's second-largest economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in November, slightly below economists’ expectations of 2.5 percent, reinforcing the view of easing inflation. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, noted that risk assets, including U.S. equity futures and crude oil, began the week on firmer ground. He attributed the positive momentum to lower inflation data, which helped alleviate concerns sparked by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut. Sycamore also highlighted the significance of the U.S. Senate passing legislation over the weekend to end a brief government shutdown, which provided additional support to market sentiment.

Oil Futures Mixed, Despite CCI Pulling Back in December -- Oil futures prices were mixed on Monday, despite the Consumer Confidence Index pulling back in December compared to the prior month on concerns of weak future business conditions and the expectation that tariffs will increase the cost of living in 2025. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 104.7 in December from a revised figure of 112.8 reported in November, and it was below market expectations of 113. The data reinforced the bearish sentiment the market has seen since last week, when the Federal Reserve confirmed that inflationary pressures will continue in 2025, coupled with expectations of weak demand driven mainly by China. "The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. Compared to November, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes, said Peterson. Mentions of tariffs increased in December showing that 46% of U.S. consumers expect tariffs to raise the cost of living while 21% expected them to create more U.S. jobs. Last week, President-elect Donald Trump said that his administration will impose trade tariffs on European Union countries if they do not buy more U.S. oil and gas next year. Trump has also threatened to increase tariffs on China, and its main trade partners, Mexico and Canada, in 2025. However, analysts consider that those punitive measures could harm the U.S. economy even more as consumers will have to pay higher prices on imported goods. At 3:10 p.m. EST, the NYMEX WTI futures contract for February delivery was almost steady at $69.45 bbl compared to the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the February Brent crude contract fell $0.13 to $72.81. But in the opposite direction, January RBOB futures rose by $ 0.0025 to $1.9441 gallon while ULSD futures for January delivery fell $0.0011 to $2.2328 gallon.

Crude Oil Market Pressured by Projected Surplus and Strength of the U.S. Dollar -- The oil market traded lower on Monday at the start of what is expected to be a light trading week due to the Christmas holiday. The crude market posted a high of $69.94 in overnight trading as the market stabilized after data on Friday showed lower than expected U.S. inflation, with the personal consumption expenditures price index increasing 0.1% in November following a 0.2% gain in October. However, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of 68.59 by mid-day. The oil market was pressured after Macquarie analysts projected an increasing surplus for next year. The market was also pressured by the strength in the U.S. dollar, which was trading around two-year highs on Monday after it reached that level on Friday. It later bounced off its low and retraced some of its earlier losses ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled down 22 cents at $69.24 and the February Brent contract settled down 31 cents at $72.63. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 54 points at $2.2263 and the RB market settling down 33 points at $1.9383. On Sunday, Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, said oil shipments have resumed via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline to Hungary. Russian and Kazakh oil flows to Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany via the Druzhba pipeline stopped on Thursday due to technical problems at a Russian pumping station.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 25,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 27^th, increasing available refining capacity by 103,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 83,000 bpd in the week ending January 3^rd.Valero reported an unanticipated intermittent process unit upset on Saturday, December 21^st at its 89,000 bpd Three Rivers, Texas refinery. New orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased in November amid strong demand for machinery and electrical products, offering more signs that the economy is on solid footing as the year ends. The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.1% in October. Core capital goods shipments increased 0.4% on the year. Orders for durable goods fell 1.1% after increasing 0.8% in October. The declines mostly reflected the weakness in commercial aircraft orders. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in December as the post-election strength fizzled and concerns about future business conditions emerged. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 in December from an upwardly revised 112.8 in November.

Oil prices ease on surplus concerns, dollar strength (Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Monday in thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday on concerns about a supply surplus next year and a strengthened dollar. Brent crude futures settled down 31 cents, or 0.43%, at $72.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $69.24 a barrel. Macquarie analysts projected a growing supply surplus for next year, which will hold Brent prices to an average of $70.50 a barrel, down from this year's average of $79.64, they said in a December report. Concerns about European supply eased on reports the Druzhba pipeline, which sends Russian and Kazakh oil to Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany, has restarted after halting on Thursday due to technical problems at a Russian pumping station. The U.S. dollar was hovering around two-year highs on Monday morning, after hitting that milestone on Friday. "With the U.S. dollar changing from weaker to stronger, oil prices have given up earlier gains," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. On Friday, U.S. data that showed cooling inflation helped alleviate concerns after the Federal Reserve interest rate cut last week. "With the Fed sending mixed signals and some of these economic data points not being all that robust, the market is listless," Brent futures fell by around 2.1% last week, while WTI futures lost 2.6%, on concerns about global economic growth and oil demand after the U.S. central bank signalled caution over further easing of monetary policy. Research from Asia's top refiner Sinopec pointing to China's oil consumption peaking in 2027 also weighed on prices. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Friday urged the European Union to increase U.S. oil and gas imports or face tariffs on the bloc's exports. Trump also threatened to reassert U.S. control over the Panama Canal on Sunday, accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the Central American passage and drawing a sharp rebuke from Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino.

Global oil prices rise to $73.05/barrel in pre-Christmas trade - Global oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session’s losses, as a slightly optimistic market outlook provided a lift despite light trading ahead of the Christmas holiday. Brent crude futures gained 42 cents, from $72.63 or 0.6%, to settle at $73.05 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 38 cents, or 0.6%, reaching $69.62 a barrel as of 0742 GMT, Reuters reported.Analysts at FGE noted that benchmark prices are likely to remain stable around current levels in the short term due to reduced trading activity during the holiday season. “As activity in the paper markets decreases and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances, prices should see limited movement,” they remarked in a note.The analysts highlighted supportive supply and demand dynamics in December that contributed to their less bearish outlook.“Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added, signaling potential volatility if unexpected events occur.Other market watchers echoed similar sentiments, forecasting a positive trajectory for oil in the coming months. Neil Crosby, assistant vice-president of oil analytics at Sparta Commodities, commented on shifting views regarding long-term balances. “The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” Crosby said. He pointed to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which now forecasts a draw in 2025 liquid balances despite expectations of increased OPEC+ production next year. In addition, China’s announcement of a plan to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2024 to stimulate its struggling economy bolstered market sentiment. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s fiscal measures are expected to drive energy demand. “This is likely to provide near-term support for WTI crude at $67 a barrel,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA.Attention is also turning to economic signals from the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Recent data showed a mixed picture but offered some reasons for optimism. November saw a surge in new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods, driven by strong demand for machinery. Additionally, new home sales rebounded, indicating that the U.S. economy remains resilient as the year concludes.While market participants tread cautiously due to uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook and energy policies, the pre-Christmas trading session reflects a market still poised for potential gains as 2024 approaches.The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has slashed the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, from ₦1,020 to ₦899 per litre.

• This price reduction is part of the government’s efforts to align with the competitive dynamics brought about by the deregulation of the fuel sector. It is expected to foster increased competition among oil marketers, potentially leading to cost savings for consumers.
• Analysts have forecasted that PMS prices could decrease even further by the end of January 2025, citing a combination of factors including a global decline in crude oil prices and the recent strengthening of the naira against the dollar.

However, it remains to be seen how the Nigerian market will respond to the recent slight increase in global oil prices, and whether the local market will maintain the downward trajectory in fuel costs.

Oil prices rise; supply, demand concerns in focus for 2025 -- Oil prices rose Tuesday, but stuck to a tight trading range as traders remained uncertain over a potential supply glut and softening demand in the coming year.At 11:58 ET (17:58 GMT), Brent oil futures rose 1.1% to $73.44 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.2% to $70.03 a barrel. Trading volumes were thin ahead of the Christmas holiday, while strength in the dollar also weighed on oil prices after the Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. Brent and WTI prices were down about 5% so far in 2024, with persistent concerns over slowing demand in China being a key point of pressure.Chinese oil imports steadily dropped this year as the world’s largest oil importer struggled with slowing economic growth. While the country did outline plans to ramp up fiscal spending and stimulus measures in the coming year, markets were still holding out for more clarity on the planned measures. Increased electric vehicle adoption in China also undermined fuel demand in the country. Both the OPEC and the IEA have forecast slower demand growth in 2025 due to slowing demand in China. The country is also expected to face increased economic headwinds from a renewed trade war with the U.S. under Donald Trump. Oil markets were on edge over a potential supply glut in 2025. While the OPEC recently agreed to extend its ongoing supply cuts until at least mid-2025, production elsewhere could potentially increase.US oil production remained close to record highs, and could potentially increase in the coming year, especially as Trump vowed to ramp up domestic energy production.

Oil prices rise in thin pre-holiday trade - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, reversing the prior session’s losses on a brightening short-term outlook tied to the prospect of slightly tightening supplies as trade thinned ahead of the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays. Brent crude futures settled at $73.58, rising 95 cents, or 1.3%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $70.10, rising 86 cents, or 1.2%. FGE analysts said they expect the benchmark prices will fluctuate around current levels in the near term “as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances.” Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the FGE analysts said in a note. “Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added. Some analysts also pointed to signs of greater oil demand over the next few months. “The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities’ assistant vice president of oil analytics, said in a note. “The EIA’s short-term energy outlook recently shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw, despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year,” Crosby said. US crude oil and distillate stocks were seen falling last week by 3.2 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively, while gasoline stocks were seen rising last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Gasoline inventories were seen rising by 3.9 million barrels. The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) on Friday. Also supporting prices was a plan by China, the world’s biggest oil importer, to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy. China’s stimulus is likely to provide near-term support for WTI crude at $67 a barrel, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. Markets will also be watching the US economy, the world’s largest oil consumer, which released a mixed bag of data. While consumer confidence weakened in December, new orders for key US-manufactured capital goods surged in November amid strong demand for machinery and new home sales rebounded, suggesting the US economy was on a solid footing as the year closes out. US markets will be closed on Wednesday, Dec. 25, and there will be no global oil market report for the day.’

Oil prices rise slightly amid holiday trading, demand optimism in China -Oil prices saw a modest increase on Thursday, supported by expectations of higher demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, amid light trading volumes due to the holiday season.Global benchmark brent crude rose by 1.16 percent, reaching USD73.25 per barrel at 11:10 AM local time (0810 GMT), up from USD73.13 at the previous session’s close.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw a slight increase of 0.24 percent, rising to USD70.10 per barrel from USD69.93 in the prior session.Thin trading volumes were observed in the oil markets, driven by the Christmas holiday.The price uptick was supported by reports that Chinese authorities had agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan (USD411 billion) in special Treasury bonds to stimulate the country's struggling economy. Additionally, rising expectations for both supply and demand in the fossil fuel market contributed to the price gains, with the incoming US President, Donald Trump, set to take office on January 20.

Oil prices fall as gains on fresh China stimulus hopes fade - Oil prices fell Thursday, giving up early-day gains that followed growing hopes for fresh stimulus from China that could lift the demand outlook on crude. At 1:58 p.m. ET (18:58 GMT), Brent Oil Futures traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and Crude Oil WTI Futures also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel. Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.Hopes that China, the largest oil importer, can revive its economy remains key for the oil demand outlook at time when are concerned about an oversupply next as non-OPEC are expected to ramp up output.Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) data.Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.The report comes ahead of the official petroleum report from Energy Information Administration due Friday, with economists forecasting a 700,000 barrel decline for the week ended Dec. 20.

WTI Extends Gains After Another Crude Draw, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom | Oil prices were slightly higher on Friday as Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels triggered what Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research described as a "fear bid" for the commodity."This is a geopolitics-driven market," Melek said."We're a little worried about events around the Red Sea and potentially getting shipments interrupted in the broader region," he added.U.S. crude oil inventories fell by more than expected last week and product stocks were mixed as refineries raised their capacity use, according to official data released (on a delay due to the holiday) from DOE.

• Crude -4.24mm
• Cushing -320k
• Gasoline +1.63mm
• Distillates -1.69mm

This is the 5th straight week of crude stock drawdowns and sixth straight week of gasoline builds... Source: Bloomberg Cushing stocks fell back near 'tank bottoms' once again (lowest since Oct 2023)... WTI extended the day's gains on the crude draw, holding solidly above $70... Crude is on track for a modest annual loss, with trading confined in a narrow band since mid-October. There are widespread concerns the market may be oversupplied next year as China’s demand slows and global production expands, although traders remain cautious about potentially tighter US sanctions against flows from Iran under Donald Trump. The prompt spread on WTI futs - with the nearby contract trading at a premium of more than 40 cents a barrel to the next in line -points to near-term supply tightness.

Oil prices rise as Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthis triggers 'fear bid' - Oil prices climbed on Friday as Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels triggered what one strategist described as a "fear bid" for the commodity.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for February delivery CL.1 CLG25 gained 98 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $70.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• -- February Brent crude BRNG25, the global benchmark, rose by 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $74.17 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
• -- Back on Nymex, January gasoline RBF25 rose 0.6% to $1.9582 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 gained 1.8% to $2.2448 a gallon.
• -- January natural gas NGF25 shed 5.4% to $3.514 per million British thermal units.

Israel unleashed an aerial assault on Thursday against parts of Yemen controlled by the Houthi rebel group, stoking concerns about more potential instability in the oil-rich region. Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said a "fear bid" from traders was pushing oil prices higher.Investors were particularly concerned about potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Red Sea, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Bank, during an interview with MarketWatch."This is a geopolitics-driven market," Melek said."We're a little worried about events around the Red Sea and potentially getting shipments interrupted in the broader region," he added.Crude prices got an additional boost in afternoon trading after the release of the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which showed crude inventories dropping by much more than expected, Melek said. But only a modest increase in oil demand limited the advance.

Oil settles up over 1% on large draw from US crude stocks (Reuters) -Oil prices settled more than 1% higher on Friday and recorded a weekly gain in low trading volume ahead of year-end, buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude inventories last week. Brent crude futures rose 91 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $74.17 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $70.60 per barrel. On a weekly basis, both Brent and WTI crude gained about 1.4%. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday. [EIA/S] Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9 million-barrel drawdown, whereas figures from the American Petroleum Institute released earlier in the week estimated a 3.2 million-barrel draw, according to market sources. [API/S] Optimism over Chinese economic growth has also sparked hopes of higher demand next year from the top oil importing nation. The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue special treasury bonds worth 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) next year, sources told Reuters this week, as Beijing acts to revive the sluggish economy. The war between Russia and Ukraine, which had become an afterthought in energy markets due to stagnant global oil demand, seems to be returning to the forefront after numerous events this week that could impact supplies next year, fuel distributor TACenergy's trading desk wrote on Friday. NATO said on Friday it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea, a day after Finland seized a ship carrying Russian oil on suspicion of causing internet and power cable outages. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale natural gas prices rose amid fading hopes for a new deal to transit Russian gas through Ukraine. Tensions have flared in the Middle East too, after Israel raided a north Gaza hospital on Friday and struck targets linked to the Houthi movement in Yemen on Thursday, but these events are unlikely to affect oil prices much heading into next year, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. Instead, the largest risk in the Middle East is from sanctions enforcement that will likely occur with the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S., he said.

Taliban say Pakistani airstrikes killed 46 people in eastern Afghanistan, mostly women and children - — Pakistan’s airstrikes on eastern Afghanistan killed 46 people, mostly women and children, a Taliban government official said Wednesday, raising fears of further straining the relations between the two neighbors. Hamdullah Fitrat, the deputy spokesman for the Afghan government, said those killed in the strikes that targeted four locations in Barmal, a district in the province of Paktika, were refugees, adding that six others were also wounded. This comes a day after Pakistani security officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity in line with regulations, told The Associated Press that Tuesday’s operation was to dismantle a training facility and kill insurgents in Paktika in Afghanistan. Earlier Wednesday, Mohammad Khurasani, the spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, claimed in a statement that 50 people, including 27 women and children, have died in the strikes. He said they were “unarmed refugees” who fled to Afghanistan because of Pakistan’s offensive in the northwest. The TTP — a separate group but also a close ally of the Afghan Taliban — also shared photos, alleging they were of children killed during the Pakistani operation. Meanwhile, residents in the area told an AP reporter over the phone that at least 13 people were left dead, adding that the death toll could be higher. They also said the wounded were transported to a local hospital. Pakistan has not commented on the strikes. However, on Wednesday, the Pakistani military said security forces killed 13 insurgents in an intelligence-based operation in South Waziristan, a district located along eastern Afghanistan’s Paktika province. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Wednesday praised “Pakistan’s brave security force” in a statement for thwarting “the nefarious designs” of “terrorists.” He didn’t mention the Pakistani air strikes inside Afghanistan The Taliban Defense Ministry denounced the attacks on Tuesday and promised retaliation. On Wednesday, the situation along the shared border seemed to be business as usual. However, security analysts say the TTP could launch retaliatory attacks in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen innumerable militant attacks in the past two decades but there has been an uptick in recent months. The latest was this weekend when at least 16 Pakistani soldiers were killed when the TTP attacked a checkpoint in the country’s northwest. Pakistani officials have accused the Taliban of not doing enough to combat militant activity across the border, a charge the Afghan Taliban government denies, saying it does not allow anyone to carry out attacks against any country. North and South Waziristan are former strongholds of Pakistani Taliban, who have fled to Afghanistan.

Israel Passing Messages to Syria's HTS, But Turkey's Influence Is a Concern - Both Israel and Turkey were at the forefront of this month’s regime change in Syria. The takeover of Syria by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) alters the landscape of the region, but Turkey and Israel may quickly find themselves at odds over who’s really calling the shots.Israel has been engaging with the HTS, though officials say they’re passing messages and are not in “direct” contract with them. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has been loudly trying to reassure Israel that Syria won’t be used as a launchpad for attacks on that country. HTS efforts to curry favor with Israel began even before its offensive even ended with the taking of Damascus, but the level of influence Tel Aviv can expect to have pales in comparison with that of Turkey.Turkey very openly backed the HTS-led offensive, and Julani says that Turkey and Syria will now have close strategic relations. Moreover, Julani says that Turkey will have “priority” over all other countries in the reconstruction effort in Syria.While Israel’s goal was to see Syria removed from the Iranian alliance of nations, it’s not much more comfortable with Syria becoming a client state of Turkey. Turkey is another regional rival for Israel, albeit not one with such overt military hostility as Iran.Israel’s opposition leader Yair Golan expressed concern today that Turkey might end up too dominant in Syria. He couched this mostly as a concern about Sunni Islamists dominating Syria (though that clearly wasn’t a problem for Israel during the HTS takeover), but it also ended up being a call to back Syria’s Kurds to prevent Turkey from moving against them.Israel is on relatively friendly terms with the Kurds, and Turkey plainly isn’t. Turkey’s backing of the HTS was less about getting rid of Assad and more about believing HTS would be harder on Kurdish autonomy. The HTS government is already talking about ending Kurdish autonomy. Turkey has launched multiple offensives against Syria’s Kurdish SDF in recent years, and evidence is they’re poised to begin another one.That complicates Israel’s policy toward Syria, beyond seizing new territory in the southwest. They don’t necessarily have designs on picking a fight with a mostly compliant HTS, but backing Kurdish autonomy in the northeast would be an obvious way to limit Turkey’s influence over Syria. Navigating potential conflicts in those interests is going to be a challenge.

Turkey Eyes Role in Reviving Syrian Oil and Gas Production -Turkey said it wants to help increase oil and natural gas production in Syria, the latest step in Ankara’s overtures for deeper involvement in the reconstruction of the war-torn country. Turkish authorities are also working on ways to meet Syria’s electricity needs after more than a decade of conflict damaged the country’s infrastructure, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday. “We are also studying the use of crude oil and natural gas for reconstruction of Syria. We plan to tell our counterparts how we can make contributions in that sense,” Bayraktar said. “Our objective is to develop these projects.” His comments highlight Turkey’s desire to play a role in rebuilding of Syria after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led an advance on capital Damascus, toppling President Bashar al-Assad and bringing to an end the civil war that began in 2011. Syria was a minnow producer of hydrocarbons even before the conflict shut down most of the oil and gas production there, and further political hurdles remain before its new rulers can revive its industries. The Islamist group that seized power earlier this month, known as HTS, is designated a terror group by many countries. Group of Seven leaders have said they would support a new Syrian government, while Turkey signaled it could soon remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to maintain friendly ties with groups leading Syria’s interim government, an outreach that could see Turkish companies play a leading role in reconstruction and allow some of the 3 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey to return home. Long-term cooperation could see new oil and gas pipelines linking Syria to Turkey’s export terminals, Bayraktar said. The current level of oil output in Syria is estimated to be just around 30,000 barrels per day, about 5 percent of the levels seen around two decades ago, according to Turkish estimates.

Syrian Christians Protest Presence Of Foreign Jihadists After Christmas Display Burned - Starting Monday night and into Tuesday, large demonstrations broke out in Christian areas of Damascus and other parts of Syria over the continued presence of foreign jihadists in the country. The ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has vowed to protect the sizeable non-Muslim communities of Syria (Christians, Alawites, and Druze) following the overthrow of the secular-leaning President Assad and his Baath government, but deep fears have remained that an Islamic state based on Sharia law will emerge. HTS Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is currently trying to appease Western and external backers by saying all the 'right things' in public—but Christians in particular are deeply fearful given that since the jihadist takeover of the country there have been several acts of anti-Christian vandalism and attacks. Under the prior Assad government, Christians and others had a high degree of religious freedom. Churches would sound bells on special holidays, Christmas lights and decorations would be prominent in December, and special festivals would often take over entire streets and neighborhoods in celebration. The pre-war Christian population was commonly estimated to be ten to twelve percent of the population, but since 2011 many have fled. Christians have also been killed or kidnapped over the years by Western and Gulf-backed militants, including priests and two bishops who were Christian leaders in Aleppo. While Jolani is trying to send positive signals to the US government and others over the future of Syria's Christians, Church leaders and the people are not waiting around. On Tuesday night Christian districts in and around Damascus as well parts of Hama countryside erupted in protest after the day priorarmed men set fire to a large Christmas display in the Christian town of Suqaylabiyah, in Hama governate. "We demand the rights of Christians," the protesters chanted, many carrying crosses. Other slogans demanded a future role in the country for all Syrians, and that churches and the religious freedom of everyone must be protected. A regional source has described the initial Christmas tree burning which outraged Syria's Christians as follows: Video footage that circulated on social media on 23 December showed a large Christmas tree burning in Hama’s Suqaylabiyah – a Christian neighborhood. The tree was set ablaze on Monday by foreign militants under HTS’s command. Some reports said the militants were from Chechnya, while others said they were Uzbeki fighters. n HTS deployed a military official to the scene of the burning to condemn the incident and vow punishment for those responsible. The actual war on Christmas, brought to you by NATO https://t.co/FAUMb2ieoF

'We Created A Pretend World': Mossad Agents Boast About Mass Pager Attack In Lebanon - Former Mossad agents revealed new details of Israel's pager and walkie-talkie terror attacks carried out against members of Hezbollah in interviews with the CBS News program 60 Minutes this week..According to a former Israeli intelligence agent known as Michael, Hezbollah bought more than 16,000 of the exploding devices. When Mossad chief David Barnea gave the green light for the attack in September, the pagers and walkie-talkies were detonated on subsequent days.Some 42 people were killed, including two children, while about 4,000 were injured. Many lost their hands and eyes or had their stomachs ripped open by the explosions. Michael said the walkie-talkie batteries, which included explosive devices, were made in Israel at a Mossad facility.Mossad then set up shell companies to infiltrate the supply chain and sell the devices to Hezbollah. The walkie-talkies were designed to go into armored tactical vests used in battle."We create a pretend world. We are a global production company: We write the screenplay, we're the directors, we're the producers, we're the main actors," Michael said. "And the world is our stage."Another former Mossad agent, Gabriel, told 60 Minutes that the spy agency began developing booby-trapped pagers in 2022. They wanted a device that Hezbollah members would carry with them at all times, not just in battle.Gabriel said Mossad had learned that the Lebanese resistance movement was buying pagers from a company in Taiwan called Gold Apollo. Mossad set up shell companies, including one in Hungary, to produce the explosive pagers and market them under a licensing agreement with Gold Apollo.The pagers had no intelligence capabilities and could not be used to track Hezbollah members or gather information about them, Gabriel said. They could only be detonated to kill or maim anyone holding them.

Israeli Officials: Lebanon Withdrawal May Go Slower Than Planned - Under the November 27 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Israel is to withdraw all of its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Today, however, officials said Israel may miss that deadline, evidenced by how few troops have left Lebanon so far.These statements to the Israeli press shift the blame for the slow pullout to the Lebanese military, saying it is deploying into southern Lebanon too slowly. Per the ceasefire, Lebanon also has 60 days to put troops in the south, which, in contradiction to Israel, the US believes will be accomplished in 50 days.Lebanese PM Najib Mikati has called on the US and France, as guarantors of the ceasefire, to do something to speed up the Israeli pullout, saying that they “need to put an end to this Israeli procrastination.”Mikati isn’t the only one concerned about the sluggish situation. TheUNIFIL peacekeepers issued a statement calling for an accelerated Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. They said they want to see accelerated progress in both Israel leaving and Lebanese military forces arriving in the south.Israel’s repeated and ongoing violations of the ceasefire are undoubtedly a big reason as to why the Lebanese people want Israel out soon. On Sunday Israeli forces blew up several homes in Hanin, along with attacks on other towns and villages across the south. At least 286 Israeli ceasefire violations have occurred since the ceasefire began, killing no less than 30 people. Overnight, Israel also carried out an airstrike on the village of Taybeh in southern Lebanon, killing two people and wounding another. This strike took place near the local public school. However, the highest profile violations were probably those in the southern border town of Naqoura.In Naqoura, Israeli troops entered the town and raised an Israeli flag at the entrance, even though it is plainly on the Lebanese side of the border. Days earlier, Israeli artillery fire had destroyed a number of civilian homes in the town, as it has in so many places where fire was supposed to be ceased.UNIFIL’s statement on the withdrawal acceleration today reiterated a call for all sides to stop violating the ceasefire. In general, the meaningful violations have come from the Israeli side, though Israel has claimed the presence of cars in southern Lebanon is a violation in and of itself and justifies IDF fire.

Midway Through Ceasefire, Israeli Army Moves Deeper Into Southern Lebanon - Thursday marks the 30-day mark in the 60-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. While plainly obvious that IDF military operations never really ceased, Israel is now openly talking about staying in Lebanon past the 60-day pullout deadline. Even more concerning, Israel has pushed the offensive deeper into southern Lebanon, seizing the town of Wadi al-Hujeir and firing rounds of machine gun fire as troops advance, forcing the civilian population to flee once again. Wadi al-Hujeir is nearly five miles over the Blue Line, deeper than Israel’s invasion actually penetrated during the war that was supposed to end with last month’s ceasefire. The town also lies along the Litani River, beyond which Hezbollah was to remove its forces after the war. But travel in occupied southern Lebanon is a difficult business, even 30 days into the ceasefire, as Israel seems to attack anything and everything trying to return to the towns and villages that were seized. The roads around Wadi al-Hujeir have now been closed by Lebanese officials in an effort to keep the civilian population safely away from continuing Israeli incursions.Multiple voices have expressed growing concern about Israel’s looming failure to withdraw from Lebanon and its continued firing on Lebanese territory despite the nominal ceasefire.UNIFIL issued such a statement today about the continuing damage Israel is causing in residential and agricultural areas, and on road networks throughout southern Lebanon. Israel has issued no statement on the new incursions, nor any official clarification surrounding media reports that it’s looking to stay beyond next month’s deadline.

New York Times reveals Israeli extermination order authorizing killing 20 civilians for each “combatant” -- On Thursday, the New York Times published a detailed account reporting the existence of official Israeli military documents authorizing the killing of 20 non-combatants for every “pre-emptive” attack on a single presumed Hamas supporter, with the ratio in some cases reaching 100 to one.The report makes clear that Israel has waged its war on Gaza as a war of extermination, with the killing of the civilian population through aerial bombardment as a goal co-equal with the massacre of those who took up arms against the Israeli occupation.The Times reported that within hours of the beginning of the October 7 attack, the IDF issued an unprecedented order authorizing the effectively unrestricted bombardment of civilian areas of Gaza.“In each strike, the order said, officers had the authority to risk killing up to 20 civilians,” the Times wrote.The order authorized the IDF to target figures vaguely associated with Hamas while they were at home with their families, creating the conditions for the systematic and deliberate massacre of entire households. “It meant, for example, that the military could target rank-and-file militants as they were at home surrounded by relatives and neighbors.”The Times added that “senior commanders approved strikes on Hamas leaders that they knew would each endanger more than 100 noncombatants—crossing an extraordinary threshold for a contemporary Western military.” What becomes clear in the Times’ account is that the “system” and “rules of engagement” used in “pre-emptive strikes” targeting suspected Hamas sympathizers was nothing more than a cover for a blanket bombardment of Gaza with massive block-buster bombs, aimed at killing as many people as possible and destroying as much of Gaza as possible. The aim of this massacre was an ethnically cleansed Gaza, to be permanently annexed, occupied and settled by Israel, as a part of what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called the “new Middle East,” under the direct hegemony and domination of the imperialist powers via their Israeli vassal state. The fact that this mass extermination campaign continues to this day was shown by the murder Thursday of five journalists in an airstrike, bringing the total number of journalists killed in Gaza since October 2023 to 201.To date, 45,361 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza that began on October 7, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. But this figure does not account for the vast number of people who have died from the deliberate starvation of the population of Gaza by Israel or the destruction of its healthcare system; the total could be 186,000 or more, according to The Lancet in July.The report by the Times constitutes a semi-official acknowledgement by the US government of the existence of the extermination order, largely from the standpoint of damage control. Much of the story was previously reported by +972 Magazine, an independent Israeli-Palestinian publication, but the Times report is the first time that a major US media source has claimed to have seen the document authorizing the killing of 20 civilians for every combatant.The Israeli strikes were carried out with no warnings, often on the basis of a system called “Lavender” that used artificial intelligence to target entire apartment buildings and their residents for destruction without any warning and in some cases without human oversight.The order issued on October 7 was followed by another, issued on October 8, which, according to the Times, declared, “Strikes on military targets in Gaza … were permitted to cumulatively endanger up to 500 civilians each day.” In an extraordinary passage, the Times wrote that “A scholar at West Point consulted by the Times, Prof. Michael N. Schmitt, said it risked being construed by mid-ranking officers as a quota that they had to reach.” Regardless, the Times wrote, the “quota” was removed just days later, and there were multiple days in which more than 500 deaths were reported in Gaza. During the first two days of the war, the Times reported in an earlier article, “90 percent of the munitions Israel dropped in Gaza were satellite-guided bombs of 1,000 to 2,000 pounds.” US officials have repeatedly stated that they have encouraged Israeli leaders to use lower-yield munitions. But these public statements were belied by the fact that, according to a July report by Reuters, the US sent Israel 14,000 2,000-pound bombs between October and July, more than any other type of munition. The existence of this order helps explain the findings of a report by the United Nations Human Rights Office published in November that concluded that 70 percent of civilian deaths in Gaza since October were women and children, with children under 18 making up by far the highest portion of fatalities. Throughout the genocide, the Biden administration has sought to promote the claim that Israel, despite at times being overzealous in the use of weapons, does not intend to either exterminate the people of Gaza or forcibly displace them. The reality is, however, that the documents that the New York Times has verified would have been immediately available to the US intelligence agencies within a matter of days of their circulation. US President Joe Biden would have been briefed on them ahead of his trip to Israel in October 2023, where he pledged the total support of the US government to the genocide. While the Israeli assault on Gaza sets a mark for rapid extermination that is without precedent in a US-sponsored war of the 21st century, the United States has been waging war throughout the Middle East since the proclamation of the “war on terror,” using many of the methods being used by Israel. In 2013, a study published in the medical journal PLOS Medicine concluded that the US invasion of Iraq led to the deaths of half a million people or more between 2003 and 2011, with 70 percent being killed in violent attacks.Since 2001, the United States has carried out a staggering 100,000 airstrikes throughout the world, including in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Somalia. During the Obama administration, US drone assassinations were given a shocking regularity in the president’s “terror Tuesday” meetings, in which he personally selected targets for illegal murder, picked from an Orwellian “disposition matrix” of targets.No comparable up-to-date study has been made of the death tolls of these wars, but if the methods applied to Iraq in 2013 were used in these countries, the death toll is likely to be in the millions.

Israel Is Killing Civilians In Gaza On Purpose, And It's Not Even Debatable – Caitlin Johnstone - Just so we’re all clear, it is a fully established fact that the IDF is directly, deliberately killing civilians in Gaza. There was a time in the early days of the genocide when this could be disputed, but that is no longer true. The facts are in and the case is closed. It’s happening.Israeli soldiers are telling the press that they’ve been knowingly killing civilians and then falsely categorizing them as terrorists afterward. Countless doctors have testified to routinely encountering dead and wounded children who’ve been shot in the head by Israeli snipers. Israeli media reports have revealed that the IDF is intentionally targeting civilian infrastructure and using AI systems to specifically target suspected Hamas members when they are at home with their families instead of out on the battlefield.The debate is over. The “human shields” argument has been completely, thoroughly debunked. If you still deny that this is happening, its because your worldview is so false that it requires you to deny facts and reality. We were fed lies about what happened on October 7. We were fed lies about the Israeli abuses which led to October 7. We’ve been fed lies about what’s been done for the last 15 months under the justification of October 7. And yet Israel’s defenders still expect to be taken seriously when they babble about October 7 in response to criticisms of Israel’s actions.

Pope Francis Doubles Down on Criticism of Israel's 'Cruelty' in Gaza - Pope Francis has doubled down on calling out Israel’s “cruelty” in Gaza after he was criticized by the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Pope Francis first made the comments on Saturday when he said Israel prevented the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem from entering Gaza. “Yesterday, they did not allow the Patriarch into Gaza as promised. Yesterday, children were bombed. This is cruelty, this is not war,” he said.The pope was referring to Israeli airstrikes on Friday that hit a home in Jabalia, killing seven children from the same family. “I want to say it because it touches my heart,” he said. The Israeli Foreign Ministry responded by saying, “The Pope’s remarks are particularly disappointing as they are disconnected from the true and factual context of Israel’s fight against jihadist terrorism — a multi-front war that was forced upon it starting on October 7.”The ministry added, “The blame should be directed solely at the terrorists, not at the democracy defending itself against them. Enough with the double standards and the singling out of the Jewish state and its people.” Pope Francis was not deterred by the statement and offered more sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday. “And with pain, I think of Gaza, of so much cruelty, of the children being machine-gunned, of the bombings of schools and hospitals. What cruelty,” he said after his weekly Angelus prayer.Also on Sunday, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, was able to enter Gaza, bringing attention to the enclave’s small Christian minority. He led Mass at the Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza City and visited the nearby Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church. Both Christian churches have come under Israeli attack. In October 2023, Israeli strikes killed 18 Palestinian civilians who were sheltering at St. Porphyrius, including relatives of former US congressman Justin Amash.In July 2024, Israeli shelling hit a building in the compound of St. Porphyrius, causing minor damage and wounding three.

Dozens of Israelis Wounded as Houthi Rocket Strikes Tel Aviv - Back and forth strikes between Israel and the Shi’ite Houthi movement in Yemen seem to be growing this past week. On Thursday morning, Israel launched multiple airstrikes against the Houthi-controlled part of northern Yemen, killing at least nine. Overnight Friday, the Houthis responded with a rocket. The Houthis reported that they had aimed at an unspecified military target in Tel Aviv with a Palestine-2 hypersonic missile. The Israeli military reported that 23 people were lightly injured by shattered glass, and another 14 were injured in trying to flee to the shelters. Reportedly the missile hit a public park, and alarms were activated across Central Israel, leading millions to flee to shelters. The Israeli military’s air defenses failed to intercept the missile, and officials are saying they intend to launch an investigation to figure out why that was. Israel has long considered the Houthis to be one of their seven fronts going on at the same time. In practice, Yemen is far enough away from Israel that there have been minimal exchanges for the most part. That might be changing.The Houthis have held northern Yemen since 2014, and a Saudi-led invasion was launched shortly after to try to unite the country under a different faction. Fighting has been ongoing ever since.The ongoing Israel war in the Gaza Strip has increased the regional implications of the Houthi presence, as they’ve been attacking Western ships, both civilian and military, passing through the area near their shoreline as part of an effort to try to support the Palestinians. That has led to a number of US and British airstrikes against northern Yemen as well, though so far it has not ended up removing the Houthis from power.

Israel Conducts Huge Airstrikes Targeting Houthis At International Airport & Across Yemen -Israel has launched major aerial attacks on Yemen on Thursday, just on heels of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening to destroy Houthi infrastructure and hunt down its leaders. "I have instructed our forces to destroy the infrastructure of Houthis becauseanyone who tries to harm us will be struck with full force," Netanyahu told parliament, following a Houthi ballistic missile strike on Tel Aviv Saturday."We will continue to crush the forces of evil with strength and ingenuity, even if it takes time," Netanyahu has said of the new offensive over the skies of Yemen. The Saturday attack incident had wounded 16 Israelis.Viral footage allegedly from Hodaydah of today's Israeli attack on Yemen. According to early reports from Arabic media, various sites have been hit including civilian infrastructure such as ports, power stations and Sanaa's airport. pic.twitter.com/4NxVO5T34r"A short time ago, the Air Force attacked targets of the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, both on the coastline and in Sana’a," Netanyahu continued.He directly called out Iran in the new remarks, given the Iranian have long supplied the Shia Houthi rebels. "We are determined to cut off this terror arm of the Iranian axis of evil. We will persist in this until we complete the job," the Israeli leader said. This strongly suggests more such attacks to come in the next days.The new Israeli air strikes have hit the international airport in Yemen's capital Sanaa as well as the Red Sea port of Hudaydah, which has been a frequent focus on the Western coalition's own intermittent air campaign. An IDF statement has claimed the new operation hit only "military infrastructure" at Sanaa International Airport, the Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations, as well as military targets at Al-Hudaydah, Salif, and Ras Kanatib ports on the country's west coast."These infrastructures were used by the Houthi terror regime to transfer Iranian weapons to the region and for the entry of senior Iranian officials," the IDF has additionally said.An Al Jazeera correspondent in the region speculates this will only lead to stepped up attacks on Israel out of Yemen:Yemeni journalist Hussain al-Bukhaiti told Al Jazeera the attack on the airport in the capital Sanaa targeted one of its control towers, disrupting operations."All Israeli attacks … whether its against Yemen or Gaza, they [Yemeni forces] will treat as an escalation. And I believe … the Yemeni army may conduct a major attack against Israel," he added.

Israel Launches Another Round of Airstrikes on Yemen, Killing at Least 4 - On Thursday, Israeli warplanes carried out another round of airstrikes against Yemen, targeting the capital, Sanaa, and several ports, killing at least four people.The Israeli attacks on the Yemeni capital included strikes on the Sanaa International Airport, which killed three people and injured 16 others, according to Yemeni media. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), said he was at the airport during the attack.Ghebreyesus said he was about to board a plane with WHO and UN staff when the attack started. “One of our plane’s crew members was injured,” he said. “The air traffic control tower, the departure lounge – just a few meters from where we were – and the runway were damaged. We will need to wait for the damage to the airport to be repaired before we can leave.”On the western coast of Yemen, Israeli strikes hit a power station in the city of Hodeidah and the ports of Salif and Ras Isa, which are all located in the Hodeidah province. At least one person was killed in Hodeidah, and three people are missing.The Israeli military claimed it hit “military infrastructure” used by the Houthis and also acknowledged targeting energy infrastructure. “The targets that were struck by the IDF include military infrastructure used by the Houthi terrorist regime for its military activities in both the Sanaa International Airport and the Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations,” the IDF said.The attack marked the second round of Israeli airstrikes in Yemen within a week. Strikes launched last Thursday hit similar targets and killed at least nine people. Israel has ramped up its attacks on Yemen as the Houthis have been more successful in their missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory.

Iran Oil Tycoon Plays Key Role in Arms Sales to Russia - An Iranian oil tycoon who’s managed to quietly embed himself in the heart of the Western financial system is among a cadre of businessmen handling weapons deliveries across the Caspian Sea to Russia, helping Moscow in its war in Ukraine. Hossein Shamkhani, through a web of firms he oversees that include Dubai-based Crios Shipping LLC, began moving missiles, drone components and dual-use goods across the Caspian Sea on at least two ships last year, according to more than a dozen US, UK and European officials as well as people with direct knowledge of his dealings. They spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information. Moscow pays for the shipments with cargoes of petroleum, the people said, the kind of barter trade that has become increasingly common because of US and European sanctions on both Russia and Iran. The transactions, which coincided with Russia using more Iranian weaponry in its assault on Ukraine, represent another side of a sprawling global business network that has enriched Shamkhani, whose father was Iran’s longest-tenured defense minister and remains a top adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Shamkhani’s web of firms handle more than a quarter of the total volume of Iranian arms deliveries to Russia, according to people tracking the transactions. His empire also spans a hedge fund, which has operated from offices in London, Geneva and Singapore, as well as a Dubai-based commodities trading firm that’s dealt with Western oil majors. Iran and Russia have acknowledged their strengthened defense cooperation, without disclosing all the details. While the bilateral weapons trade exposes participants to potential sanctions from Western governments, it’s not illegal. “My understanding is the Shamkhani network ties into the drone contracts for use in Ukraine,” former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, who currently runs the Washington-based foreign policy research group Foundation for American Security and Freedom, said in an interview. Representatives for the governments of Iran and Russia as well as Crios didn’t reply to requests for comment. A lawyer representing Shamkhani, who has consistently contested Bloomberg’s reporting on his business affairs, declined to comment on the specifics of this story in an e-mailed response to questions.

Russian cargo ship sinks in Mediterranean, two crew missing - A Russian cargo ship sank in the Mediterranean Sea on Monday leaving two of the 16 crew members unaccounted for according to the country’s authorities. Fourteen of the crewmen were rescued and taken to a Spanish port after the crash, caused by an explosion in the engine room, plunged the ship into the waters near Spain.Russian authorities said Ursa Major was transporting 380 ton freight cranes for a Russian state project seeking to develop port infrastructure. Oboronlogistika, the company that manages the ship, said it was headed to the city of Vladivostok. However, Kyiv intelligence officials reported the ship was headed for Syria with a mission to collect Russia’s weapons after Bashar al-Assad fled his post as the nation’s leader following rebel’s conquest of Damascus.

Owners Of Russian Ship Ursa Major Declare Sinking An "Act Of Terrorism" -- The Russian cargo ship that sank on Tuesday in the Mediterranean Sea following a mysterious explosion in its engine room was described as an "act of terrorism," according to the vessel's owner. Reuters cites the Russian news agency RIA, which reported on Christmas Day that Oboronlogistika, the ship's owner and a subsidiary of the Russian Defense Ministry's military construction operations, stated that the cargo ship, named Ursa Major, had been targeted in "a terrorist act." On Monday, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate reported the cargo vessel was "sent by Russia to retrieve its weapons and equipment from Syria, broke down off the coast of Portugal due to a malfunction in the fuel pipe of its main engine." Russian cargo ship Ursa Major has sunk in the Mediterranean after suffering a catastrophic engine room explosion, according to Spanish authorities. 14 crew have been rescued, while two are still missing, according to Spanish media. pic.twitter.com/KbZTq1DuRs The ship tracking website Marine Traffic shows Ursa Major's last location was drifting on the high seas near Portugal before sinking on Tuesday. Neither RIA nor Russian authorities have provided additional color about the claimed terrorist attack on the cargo vessel or who they suspect is responsible. We asked earlier this week: "The big question for the Ursa Major is whether any US Navy submarines with special forces units lurk beneath." If the terrorist attack claim is confirmed, the fear is that the battlefield in Eastern Europe is broadening outside the region.