oil supplies jump most since April, but 740,000 barrels per day were unaccounted for; distillates supplies at a 45 week low

largest jump in commercial oil inventories in 25 weeks, but 740,000 barrels per day were unaccounted for; distillates inventories at a 45 week low

  US oil prices finished higher for the third time in four weeks after Israel stepped up its attacks on Gaza and the capital cities of Lebanon, Syria and Iran…,after falling 8.4% to $69.22 a barrel last week, the biggest weekly drop in a year, on a slew of weak economic data from China, and after Israel agreed not to target Iranian oil facilities, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for November delivery rose over 2% in early trading on Monday, after Chinese banks adopted extra stimulus measures in a bid to spur economic growth, and retraced some of the previous week’s losses amid the continuing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and settled $1.34 higher at $70.56 a barrel as ongoing fighting in the Middle East and the expected Israeli retaliation on Iran ​k​ept markets​ worried about supply from the region….the expiring November oil contract extended its gains in early trading Tuesday, supported by the economic stimulus measures announced in China, and expired $1.53 higher at $72.09 a barrel as escalating conflict in the Middle East overshadowed hopes for a ceasefire, and traders focused on tightening supply conditions, while the more actively traded contract for the benchmark US light sweet crude for December delivery, which became the front-month contract at the close, rose $1.70, or 2.4%, to settle at $71.74 a barrel….with markets now quoting the December oil contract price, oil prices slid in overnight trading after the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventory unexpectedly rose by 1.6 million barrels, then fell further in Wednesday morning trading after the EIA reported a 5.5 million barrel increase, the largest crude inventory jump since April, and went on to settle 97 cents lower at $70.77 a barrel, as traders factored in continuing conflict in the Middle East…oil prices rose​ ​o​n global ​markets early on Thursday, spurred by ongoing concerns about supply disruptions particularly related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, then rallied to a high of $72.34 early in New York on the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East after Israel launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus, but turned south on reports​ that the U.S. and Israel ​w​ould try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza, and settled 58 cents lower at $70.19 a barrel….oil prices rose​ from there in Asian trading on Friday, as persistent concerns over a worsening Middle East conflict kept a risk premium largely in play, and rebounded further during the New York session, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered concerns over supply of crude oil, and settled $1.59 higher at $71.78 a barrel as Israel began to ​bomb Iran amid increasing uncertainty ahead of the approaching US election…oil prices thus finished 3.7% higher for the week, while the December oil contract, which had settled the prior week at $68.69 a barrel, ended 4.5% higher…

meanwhile, natural gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks on cooler forecasts and lower field production…after falling 14.2% to $2.258 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for a warm Autumn and hence a delayed start to the winter heating season, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for November delivery opened up 2 cents on Monday​,​ but remained weak in early trading​,​ as overnight forecasts had removed additional demand from the forecast, ​t​hen climbed about 2% in afternoon trading to settle 5.4 cents higher at $2.312 per mmBTU on lower production so far this month and​ on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand next week than was earlier expected….natural gas prices opened 2 cents lower on Tuesday but rose to an intraday high of $2.375 ​b​y 10:15AM, as those with short positions took profits against weak weather forecasts, but rolling bouts of selling gradually dragged prices lower to settle ​down one-tenth of a cent at $2.311 per mmBTU​, as forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and low heating demand through early November and a drop in feedgas to LNG​ export plants were offset by a reduction in ​well output so far this month…natural gas prices opened 2 cents higher on Wednesday but drifted lower throughout the morning, as historically bearish short-term forecasts pushed prices to an intraday low of $2.286 by 1:25 PM, but rallied late to settle 3.1 cents higher at $2.342 per mmBTU despite fundamentals that continued to push against the upside…natural gas prices opened 9 cents higher on Thursday on a supportive shift in overnight forecasts, and rallied about 8% on short covering after pulling back on a bearish storage ​r​eport to settle 18.0 cents higher, on rising prices for natural gas in global markets that should boost the value of U.S. LNG exports… natural gas traded lower early Friday​, as traders weighed Thursday's bearish storage report against technical indicators leaning in favor of the bulls, but rallied ​after noon to settle 3.8 cents higher at $2.560 per mmBTU, with the late gains driven by traders squaring their positions ahead of the contract’s expiration early next week, ​leaving the contract price 13.4% higher on the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending October 18th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 80 billion cubic feet to 3,785 billion cubic feet by the end of that week, which left our natural gas supplies 106 billion cubic feet, or 2.9% above the 3,679 billion cubic feet that were in storage on October 18th of last year, and 167 billion cubic feet, or 4.6% more than the five-year average of 3,618 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 18th of October over the most recent five years….the 80 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was much larger than the 60 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, but it was close to the 81 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in October of 2023, and also ​fairly close to the average 76 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that had been typical for the same early autumn week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA Largest Crude Inventory Jump Since April

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 18th indicated that after a big increase in our oil imports and an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for, we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the fifth time in seventeen weeks, and for the 21st time in the past 46 weeks...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 902,000 barrels per day to 6,431,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 710,000 barrels per day to a seven month low over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 11,000 barrels per day to 4,112,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,319,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending October 18th, 913,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil suppl​ies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 416,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at a record high of 13,500,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,235,000 barrels per day during the October 18th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,084,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 18th, an average of 329,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 891,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending October 18th averaged a rounded 740,000 barrels per day less than what what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+740,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed… However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 891,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 782​,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 109,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the forty-fifth SPR increase in the past fifty-two weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports slipped to 6,206,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1.3% more than the 6,124,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at a record high of 13,500,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day lower at 426,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did every week this year….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.2% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 89.5% of their capacity while processing those 16,084,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending October 18th, up from from their 87.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, but not an unusual utilization fluctuation during early Autumn, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change fuel blends…the 16,084,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 5.9% more than the 15,189,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending October 20th of 2023, and 1.4% more than the 15,865,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending October 18th, 2019, a week when our refinery utilization rate was at a prepandemic below normal 85.2% for early October…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 666,000 barrels per day to 9,954,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 18th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 941,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 1.3% more than the 9,824,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending October 20th of last year, but was 1.4% less than the gasoline production of 10,098,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending October 18th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 257,000 barrels per day to 5,011,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 234,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After twenty-three production increases in the past thirty-four weeks, our distillates output was 5.9% more than the 4,733,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending October 20th of 2023, and 5.2% more than the 4,765,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending October 18th, 2019…

With this week’s ​increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the seventh time in seventeen weeks, increasing by 878,000 barrels to 213,575,000 barrels during the week ending October 18th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,201,000 barrels to a 99 week low during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 218,000 barrels per day to 8,838,000 barrels per day, and as our imports of gasoline fell by 12,000 barrels per day to 514,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 13,000 barrels per day to 886,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-three gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past thirty-eight weeks, our gasoline supplies were 4.4% below last October 20th’s gasoline inventories of 223,457,000 barrels, and were about 3% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Despite this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 5th consecutive week and for the 23rd time in the past thirty-nine weeks, decreasing by 1,140,000 barrels to a forty-five week low of 113,839,000 barrels over the week ending October 18th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 3,534,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies fell by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 81,000 barrels per day to 4,131,000 barrels per day, ​and even as our imports of distillates fell by 27,000 barrels per day to 105,000 barrels per day, and as our exports of distillates fell by 31,000 barrels per day to 1,148,000 barrels per day....Even after 23 inventory withdrawals over the past 39 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.6% above the 112,087,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on October 20th of 2023, while they are now about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the decrease in our oil imports and the increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 25th time over the past year, increasing by 5,474,000 barrels over the week, from 420,550,000 barrels on October 11th to 426,024,000 barrels on October 18th, the largest inventory jump since April, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 2,191,000 barrels over the prior week… Even with this week’s big increase, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of October over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies ​have somewhat levelled off since, and as of this October 18th were 1.2% more than the 421,120,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on October 20th of 2023, while 3.2% less than the 439,945,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on October 21st of 2022, and 0.1% less than the 426,544,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on October 15th of 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

Once again, we are including below a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of October 25th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (October 18th) and this week’s (October 25th) count, the third column shows last Friday’s October 18th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 27th of October, 2023…

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Ohio Delays Decision on More Fracking Under Salt Fork State Park - The Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met yesterday to consider whether to allow fracking under (not on) two Ohio state-owned lands, including the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County and Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. Commissioners approved moving forward to the next step with Leesville, which is to accept bids. They also voted to delay a decision on more fracking under Salt Fork State Park.

Ohio opens state wildlife area for fracking; defers ruling on drilling expansion in state park - cleveland.com By Jake Zuckerman, A state panel on Monday approved an industry application to open about 62 acres of a preserved wildlife area in Carroll County for oil and gas drilling. The decision from the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission triggers a competitive bidding process through which the state will select the “highest and best” bid for mineral rights to access oil or gas reserves under Leesville Wildlife Area in eastern Ohio.

Sixty-two acres of land at Ohio's Leesville Wildlife Area are one step closer to being fracked • Ohio Capital Journal --About 62 acres of Leesville Wildlife Area were approved to move forward to bidding for fracking during Monday’s seven minuteOhio Oil and Gas Land Management meeting.This is about 15% of the total land in Leesville Wildlife Area, which is located in Carroll County. “The commission did not consider any ‘highest and best’ bids for the leasing of mineral rights at this meeting, only nominations were considered,” Ohio Department of Natural Resources spokesperson Karina Cheung said in an email. “According to statute, all nominations and bids remain anonymous until the ‘highest and best’ bidder is announced.”The new OGLMC Chair Theresa White decided to hold off on making a decision about 884 acres of land at Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. “Going through the comments and the documents submitted for these nominations, I wonder if we might hold off on making determinations on these nominations,” White said. “There were over 360 total comments submitted on these and I would appreciate some more time to weigh the pros and cons before making a decision. … I would like to request that we delay action on these nominations until our next meeting.”The two other commissioners who were present at the meeting — Jim McGregor and Stephen Buehrer — agreed to wait until the commission’s next meeting. The next meeting has not been scheduled yet. Anti-fracking advocates at Monday’s meeting were surprised White and the commissioners decided to delay the Salt Fork decision. “I see that as a positive,” Melinda Zemper, with Save Ohio Parks, said after Monday’s meeting. “We don’t know why, but we’re just going to continue trying to educate the people of Ohio about the irrevocable effects that fracking will have on our environment and people’s health and our natural resources. So we’ll be back at the next meeting and beyond.” Jenny Morgan, also with Save Ohio Parks, was not as optimistic. “Every time they hold off, they just come back and vote yes,” she said after the meeting. “So it didn’t mean anything to me, really. It just means they’ll come back and they’ll vote it in because it just seems like they have the ear of the industry. They haven’t listened to the public.”There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions.During that same time period, there were 56 total incidents in Guernsey County (where Salt Fork is located), according to FracTracker. Before Monday’s brief meeting, several Save Ohio Parks volunteers took turns speaking outside the Ohio Department of Public Safety building (where the OGLMC’s meetings are held). “Folks commonly say they love taking their kids or grandkids to our state parks, so why on Earth would anyone want to damage these cherished spaces?” Save Ohio Parks volunteer Shannon Flanders asked. “And how will the animals, plants, lakes, and woods survive such harm? … It is absurd to allow out-of-state oil and gas companies to disrupt the outdoor, natural sanctuaries we love in Ohio.” Cathy Cowan Becker read comments that were submitted to ODNR about the acres of land in question at Leesville Wildlife Area and Salt Fork State Park.“As a frequent boater on Leesville Lake and a year round resident of Carroll County, I am firmly opposed to fracking this wildlife area,” Cowan read from a comment that was submitted.

Encino Looks to Expand Drilling Under & Around Leesville Lake, OH - - Marcellus Drilling News - Encino Energy wants to establish new oil and gas wells on Leesville Lake lands owned by the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) in Carroll County. The conservancy district’s board of directors is expected to consider a lease agreement with the company’s Ohio affiliate at its meeting tomorrow. The left is apoplectic. The MWCD manages over 54,000 acres of land in Ohio. Over the past decade, the MWCD has leased over half of that land for shale drilling. This isn’t the conservancy’s first rodeo with shale drillers. Encino is one of four operators the MWCD has leased with and is the largest of the four that leases MWCD-owned acreage.

EIA: Utica Shale Gas Production Dropped 10% First 9 Mos. of 2024 - Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations declined by about 1% from January through September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Most of the decline comes from two shale plays—the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas (down 12%) and the Utica Shale in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia (down 10%). Although the EIA’s analysis (below) is excellent and instructive, it misses one important detail about the decrease in Utica Shale gas production

OH Lawmakers Asked to Waive Competitive Bids to Plug Orphaned Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) asked a panel of lawmakers called the Ohio Controlling Board to waive the need for competitive bidding for $11.2 million in contracts to plug orphaned oil and gas wells around the state. Yesterday, the Controlling Board approved the request. The contracts were awarded to two companies: Next LVL Energy (owned by Diversified Energy) will receive $7 million, and CSR Services will receive $4.2 million

Ohio Oil and Gas Association opposes Issue 1 - Energy and Policy Institute - -The Ohio Oil and Gas Association has come out in opposition to Issue 1, the ballot initiative that aims to depoliticize how voting districts are drawn in Ohio and end partisan gerrymandering. “During its September meeting, OOGA’s Board of Trustees voted to OPPOSE Issue 1,” an Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA)document posted with the group’s online 2024 election guide said.OOGA’s Board of Trustees includes more than forty individuals representing companies involved in the oil and gas industry, including Ariel Corporation, Blackrock Resources, CNX Resources, Enbridge, Energy Transfer, EOG Resources, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Knox Energy, and Southwestern Energy, which merged with Chesapeake Energy earlier this year. “VOTE NO on Issue 1,” a banner positioned at the top of OOGA’s online election guide now says. OOGA’s opposition to Issue 1 puts the oil and gas industry association at odds with a majority pof Ohio voters who plan to vote “Yes” on Issue 1, according to polling done by Bowling Green University in September. Partisan gerrymandering has enabled one-party rule by Republicans in Columbus. Republican state lawmakers have used their supermajorities in the Ohio House and Senate to enact controversial laws backed by OOGA and its members. Republican lawmakers passed House Bill 201 last year with support from OOGA. The new law allows gas utilities to charge Ohio customers millions of dollars annually to fund what H.B. 201 opponents like state senator Kent Smith, a Democrat, call pipelines to nowhere. In 2022, Republicans pushed through state legislation, House Bill 507, backed by OOGA to open up state parks to fracking for oil and gas. H.B. 507 also redefined methane gas, a fossil fuel, as “green energy” in Ohio. The move was backed by The Empowerment Alliance (TEA), a project of Republican megadonor couple Karen Buchwald Wright and Tom Rastin, whose family owns Ariel Corp. OOGA honored Buchwald Wright earlier this year with its Patriot Award. The OOGA document detailing the industry group’s opposition to Issue 1 links to the website of Ohio Works for more information. Ohio Works is a 501(c)(4) organization and ballot issue PAC that spent more than $1.7 million in September opposing Issue 1 and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, according toFederal Elections Commission (FEC) filings. The Energy and Policy Institute emailed a spokesperson for OOGA to ask if the industry group or its PAC has contributed any money to Ohio Works, which has yet to disclose any of its donors in campaign finance filings with the FEC and Ohio Secretary of State. OOGA had not responded at the time this blog was published. Ohio Works’ website lists OOGA as a “NO ON 1 TEAM” member.

What Harris and Trump have said about fracking and the environment - Ohio Capital Journal -- Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both say they don’t want to get rid of fracking, but that’s about where their similarities seem to end when it comes to their stance on the environment. Harris flip-flopped on her position of fracking. When she ran for president in 2019 she said she wanted to ban fracking, but changed her tune when she became President Joe Biden’s running mate. Now, she’s saying she would not ban fracking if elected president. “Let’s talk about fracking because we’re here in Pennsylvania,” Harris said during last month’s presidential debate in Philadelphia. “I made that very clear in 2020 I will not ban fracking. I have not banned fracking as vice president of the United States. … My position is that we have got to invest in diverse sources of energy so we reduce our reliance on foreign oil.”Pennsylvania is a key swing state in this year’s election and is one of the country’s largest producers of natural gas. Trump, who has been quick to point out Harris’ change in her stance on fracking, says he wants to increase fracking leases on federal lands. “We will drill, baby, drill,” Trump said over the summer at the Republican National Convention. Despite changing her stance on fracking, Save Ohio Parks doesn’t think that will hurt Harris. “I think I see that personally as a way to moderate her stances,” said Melinda Zemper, a volunteer with Save Ohio Parks. “Harris has been supportive of clean energy in the past, so we see her as more malleable in the terms of creating energy policy that is aggressive enough to allow us to have our children and grandchildren exist on a livable planet.” Fracking has been documented in over 30 states, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. Vermont, New York, Maryland, Washington and California all ban fracking, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 44% of Americans support more fracking for oil and gas in the United States and 53% are against it. The United States is producing more oil and natural gas than ever before and way more than any other country. Drilling companies can frack in Ohio State Parks and the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has granted the mineral rights to many oil and gas companies so they can frack under land owned by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and the Ohio Department of Transportation. There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions.“What ends up happening is you end up taking places like Appalachia, eastern part of Ohio, southeastern part of Ohio, and you make it like, frankly, a sacrifice zone in the name of resource colonization,” said Ted Auch, Fractracker Alliance Midwest Program Director. “We did this with coal, we do it with steel, we do it with timber, and now we’re doing with oil and gas.” Presidents do not have the ability to ban fracking without support from Congress. A president can, however, impact fracking on federal land, Auch said.“The way that I looked at it is like the Democrats talk a big game, end up doing very little in terms of pushing the needle on a renewable future, and they they are more polite and discreet about how they go about business, while the Republicans say the quiet part out loud, but at the end of the day, both parties are beholden to fossil fuel industry to varying degrees,” he said.

14 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 14 – 20 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Oct 14 - 20, there were 14 permits issued to drill Marcellus/Utica wells, up from 10 permits issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had just four new permits (down from six the previous week), with three going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Susquehanna County and one for Seneca Resources in Lycoming County. The Buckeye State (OH) had seven new permits, with six going to Encino Energy (EAP) for two pads in Carroll County. The other OH permit was for Ascent Resources in Harrison County. The Mountain State (WV) issued three new permits, with all three going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Marshall County. ASCENT RESOURCES | CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY

PA Rig Count Stays Down, M-U @ 32; National Count Drops 1 @ 585 - Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, Pennsylvania lost two rigs, down to just 13 active rigs, the lowest PA's rig count has been since July 2016 (see PA Craters, Drops 2 Rigs, M-U @ 32; National Rig Count Adds 1 @ 586). That’s the lowest rig count for PA in more than eight years. Last week, PA and the other two Marcellus/Utica states, OH and WV, remained constant in their rig counts (13, nine, and ten, respectively). The national rig count collectively lost one rig last week and now stands at 585.

Range Resources marks 20th anniversary of first Marcellus Shale well - Pittsburgh Business Times -- Range Resources Corp. executives, employees and community members on Wednesday marked the 20th anniversary of a single 8,470-foot well in Mount Pleasant Township, Washington County, that spawned the American shale gas revolution. Range is one of the state's biggest natural gas producers, and it exclusively produces in southwestern Pennsylvania where it also has a big community presence and a regional headquarters at Southpointe. Range under a different name had a long history in conventional oil and gas drilling in Appalachia before October 2004, when geologist Bill Zagorski and the Range team found success in unlocking a reservoir of natural gas two miles under Mount Pleasant above a family farm. The company's success — and others like it in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and eastern Ohio — not only discovered how to bring to the surface oil, gas and other liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shales but they transformed the region into the biggest natural gas field in the United States with an estimate of more than 96.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus alone. And Pennsylvania, thanks to Range and others, have helped the United States become energy independent, something it wasn't in 2004 when the Renz well was drilled.

Murrysville Rejects Antis’ Petition to Cancel Leases Under Parks - - Marcellus Drilling News - Last December, Murrysville (PA) Council members voted to lease land for shale drilling under two town parks—Duff Park and Murrysville Community Park (see Murrysville, PA to Vote in Dec. on Plan to Drill Under Two Parks). Murrysville is located in Westmoreland County, in the southwestern part of the state. Olympus Energy pitched proposals to lease under both parks, using their adjacent leased acreage (on private land) to set up rigs to drill under the parks, which the council approved. The council also approved a lease last year with Apex Energy to drill and frack under Kovalczik Park. Last week, so-called environmental group Protect PT presented a petition to the council asking them to rescind the leases for drilling under the three parks.

PA Oil & Gas Weekly Compliance Dashboard - October 5 to 18 - Conventional Well Owners Issued 767 Violations For Abandoning Their Wells - So Far, More Than Double Number In 2019; Leaking Gas Storage Area Wells -From October 5 to 18, DEP’s Oil and Gas Compliance Database shows oil and gas inspectors filed 1,474 inspection entries, along with inspection reports from previous weeks. So far this year, DEP took these actions as of October 4--

• -- NOVs Issued In Last Week: 27 conventional, 13 unconventional
• -- Year To Date - NOVs Issued: 6,264 conventional and 791 unconventional
• -- Enforcements 2024: 398 conventional and 101 unconventional (orders, agreements)
• -- Inspections Last Week: 313 conventional and 318 unconventional
• -- Year To Date - Inspections: 13,117 conventional and 18,768 unconventional
• -- Wells Drilled Last Week: 4 conventional and 9 unconventional
• -- Year To Date Wells Drilled: 131 conventional and 235 unconventional

On October 3, 2024, DEP did follow-up inspections of 2 conventional wells-- GE Klayer 2 and Rahl & Burnwell 524-- serving the Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage Inc. North Summit Gas Storage Reservoir in Wharton Township, Fayette County and found them abandoned, not plugged and leaking gas. The original violations for abandonment were issued on August 16, 2024 and the well owner failed to permanently plug the wells and stop the gas leaks. DEP’s inspection reports [example] requested the well owner to again submit a plan by November 10, 2024 on how the wells will be brought into compliance. On October 11, 2024, DEP inspected the WK Stewart 1 conventional well owned by Big Sand Drilling Co Inc. in Lower Burrell City, Westmoreland County and found it to be abandoned and not plugged with a faint odor of gas.The owner also failed to submit production, waste generation and well integrity reports for at least five years.DEP’s inspection report requested the owner to submit a plan by October 31, 2024 on how the well will be brought into compliance.On October 15 & 16, 2024, DEP inspected 3 conventional oil and gas wells-- Detwiler Unit 1, James Noel 1, Walker 1616-- in Addison Township, Somerset County owned by Oil & Gas MGMT Inc. and found them all to be abandoned and not plugged.The original violations for abandonment were issued on or about November 14, 2023 and the well owner failed to do anything in response to the violations.DEP’s inspection reports [example] continued the abandonment violations and others for failure to submit annual production and waste reports and requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 25, 2024 on how the wells will be brought into compliance.On October 8, 2024, DEP did a follow-up inspection of the Allshouse 3492 conventional gas well owned by Diversified Prod LLC in Knox Township, Jefferson County and found the abandoned well was in the process of being plugged.DEP inspected the well on October 2 as part of a stray gas investigation and had issued violations related to abandonment on May 6, 2024. Read more here.DEP’s inspection report noted the plugging operation found the well casing was compromised by holes in multiple locations.DEP said the violations related to abandonment will be continued until the job is done. DEP also inspected at least 18 other conventional oil and gas wells with Unknown owners to confirm their coordinates and evaluate them for consideration under the federal conventional oil and gas well plugging program. So far in 2024, DEP issued 767 new or continued violations to conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells.So far in 2024, 26 violations were issued or continued to 10 shale gas well owners [Diversified Prod LLC; Big Dog Energy LLC follow-up; Big Dog Energy LLC; EQT Production Co.; Diversified Prod LLC; Chesapeake Appalachia LLC, Atlas Resources, LLC; Atlas Resources, LLC (follow-up inspection)’ Repsol Oil & Gas, EQT Chap LLC; M4 Energy; M4 Energy (follow-up inspection); EQT (Rice Drilling B LLC); and Roulette Oil & Gas LLC; Roulette Oil & Gas LLC (follow-up inspection)] for abandoning wells and not plugging wells.On October 17, 2024, DEP reported sample results confirmed a spill of shale gas wastewater occurred at the Donna shale gas well pad in Terry Township, Bradford County owned by Chesapeake Appalachia, LLC.DEP found the spill on September 30 during a routine inspection.DEP’s inspection report includes additional violations related to the spill, and for failing to notify DEP. Because an unknown quantity of wastewater was released, DEP recommended Chesapeake remediate the area under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program.DEP again requested the well pad owner to submit a plan by November 8, 2024 on how the pad will be brought into compliance.On October 17, 2024, DEP reported sample results confirmed a spill of shale gas wastewater occurred at the Tract 726D shale gas well pad in Plunketts Creek Township, Lycoming County owned by PA General Energy Co LLC.The spills were discovered during a routine DEP inspection on October 3.Because an unknown quantity of wastewater was released, DEP recommended PA General Energy remediate the area under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program.DEP’s inspection report again requested the well pad owner to submit a plan by November 8, 2024 on how the pad will be brought into compliance.On October 7, 2024, DEP did a routine inspection of the Bowers 408 shale gas well pad in Jackson Township, Tioga County owned by Repsol Oil & Gas USA LLC and found a build up of wastewater in secondary containment around the waste storage tanks.Elevated levels of conductivity were also found outside the containment indicating there may be a leak. A Repsol representative contacted DEP the following day and said the wastewater had been removed from a well cellar and that it had been constructed of corrugated metal that deteriorated over time. DEP’s inspection report requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 24, 2024 on how the well pad will be brought into compliance.So far in 2024, DEP received or acted on 228 Act 2 Land Recycling notices and reports related to oil and gas facility site cleanups. Read more here.On October 1, 2024, DEP and a representative of EPA’s Underground Injection Control Program inspected the Green Glen Corp 4 conventional well being used as an observation well for the Povlik #1 underground oil and gas wastewater injection well owned by Danken-Sammer LLC in Huston Township, Clearfield County.The inspection found the Green Glen Corp 4 well was leaking gas and had increasing fluid levels indicating casing and/or cementing failures.DEP’s inspection report included violations related to failure to notify DEP of casing/cementing defects and failure to correct the problems. The well owner was requested to submit a plan by October 25, 2024 on how the well will be brought into compliance.DEP returned to the well on October 7, 2024 to take a sample of the gas for molecular and isotopic analysis to see if it matches gas from the Povlik #1 wastewater injection well. [DEP inspection report] On October 1, 2024, DEP inspected 7 conventional gas wells used as gas injection wells to service the Donegal Gas Storage Reservoir in Donegal Township, Washington County owned by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC and found them to be leaking gas.The wells included Columbia Gas 4078, Daisy Defrance 0, Stanley Buick L4077, Stanley Buick UX 3, Montgomery 1, Martin L3702 and Patterson L4079. DEP’s inspection reports [example] include multiple violations for leaking gas and request the well owner to submit a plan by November 2, 2024 to bring the wells into compliance.On October 6, 8 & 17, 2024, DEP inspected 6 more conventional gas wells used as gas injection wells to service the Donegal Gas Storage Reservoir in Donegal Township, Washington County owned by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC and found them all to be leaking gas.The wells included Patterson L3555, Grcich ET UX 0, DeFrance L4074, WS Main 4757; Daisy DeFrance 2 and Stanley Buick UX 0. DEP’s inspection reports [example] requested the well owner to submit plans by between November 9 and 17 (depending on the inspection date) for bringing the wells into compliance.These inspections continue DEP’s compliance review of Columbia’s Donegal Gas Reservoir which in the last several weeks found multiple abandoned and leaking gas wells. Read more here.On October 15, 2024, DEP’s Compliance Reporting Database shows a $1,000 penalty was assessed against BJS, LLC for failing to keep emergency contacting postings at three conventional well sites in the City of Warren up-to-date.On October 2, 2024, DEP was called to the site of three conventional wells in Warren after a lawnmower damaged a gas pipeline causing a leak. Read more here.The Warren Fire Department said incorrect information on emergency contact postings on the wells delayed a response to the incident.On October 8, 2024, DEP inspected the C&K Coal 13 conventional well in Boggs Township, Centre County owned by Capital Oil & Gas Inc. in response to a notification by the Capital well tender and the property owner of a wastewater spill.DEP found evidence of a spill and what “appeared to be a bullet hole” in the wastewater storage tank that caused the release of wastewater. DEP’s inspection report included violations for the spill and requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 28, 2024 on how the well site will be brought into compliance. On October 11, 2024, DEP inspected a surface water pipeline in Ward Township, Tioga County in response to a notification from Repsol Oil & Gas USA LLC the pipeline ruptured on October 10 and released an estimated 18,900 gallons of what the company was fresh water from an impoundment on DCNR State Forest land.The water washed out an area immediately at the site of the rupture, flowed into a roadside ditch and then into a culvert and across the lawn of a residence. DEP’s inspection report said conductivity measures confirmed it was fresh water and no violations were issued.

Environmental, Health Groups Submit Petition To Environmental Quality Board For More Protective Setbacks From Shale Gas Wells For Schools, Daycares, Hospitals, Buildings, Drinking Water Wells, Surface Water - On October 22, the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project filed a 358-page rulemaking petition with the Environmental Quality Board asking it to increase minimum setback distances from fracking wells. Setbacks, also referred to as protective buffers and no-drill zones in the context of fracking, are mandatory distances that fracking wells must abide by to keep them separated from homes, schools, hospitals, drinking water wells, and surface water. Pennsylvania’s current fracking well location requirements—which include a waivable 500-foot setback distance from buildings and a 1,000-foot setback distance from water supply extraction points—are woefully insufficient to protect public health and the environment from the numerous dangers of fracking, according to the petition..Clean Air Council, Environmental Integrity Project, and a coalition of environmental and public health organizations - called Protective Buffers PA - are calling for the following research-informed setbacks from any new unconventional shale gas well:

• -- 3,281 feet from any building;
• -- 3,281 feet from any drinking water well;
• -- 5,280 feet from any building serving vulnerable populations (e.g., schools, daycare centers, hospitals); and
• -- 750 feet from any surface water of the Commonwealth.

“The gas industry has dangerously encroached on our daily lives over the last twenty years.” said Alex Bomstein, Clean Air Council Executive Director. “Now, nearly 1.5 million Pennsylvanians live within a half mile of fracking. The harm that fracking inflicts on communities is unacceptable and no one deserves to live with fracking in their backyard.”“The research is clear that too many Pennsylvanians have suffered a decline in their health, quality of life, and property values as a result of oil and gas companies fracking too close to buildings, wells, and waters,” said Lisa Hallowell, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. “Pennsylvania agencies have a constitutional duty to heed the overwhelming evidence and require minimum setbacks to protect the Commonwealth’s residents and natural resources from further peril.”“20 years of fracking in Pennsylvania has spawned 20 years of research showing convincingly that living and working near fracking increases the risk of developing health problems,” said Ned Ketyer, MD, President of Physicians for Social Responsibility Pennsylvania. “And the closer you are to fracking the higher the risk. Increasing buffers from the present to at least 2500 feet from homes and 5000 feet from schools, hospitals, and other public buildings is a small but necessary step to protect the health of Pennsylvanians living near fracking.”“Living a little over 500 feet from Range Resources Augustine well pad has, for the past 4 years, caused many issues for my family of five,” said Michele Stonewark, Cecil Township, Washington County. “We’ve suffered health issues including headaches, nausea, and bloody noses, sleepless nights due to noise and vibrations and increased stress and anxiety that compounds all of the other issues. There are days we can not go outside due to awful diesel and chemical smells and my children are forced to stay indoors. All the while, the landowners of the pad, are the furthest away from the threat we live with every day. The importance of setbacks is an issue that I will fight with all of my being, not just for my family's health but for the health of all families in this Commonwealth.” “We have 12 well pads and one compressor station planned for our residential community and thousands of residents have already been harmed,” said Gillian Graber, impacted resident and Executive Director of Protect PT, Westmoreland County. “After a decade of working to protect my community, I am tired of waiting for our government agencies, Governor Shapiro, and our legislators to act in the best interest for Pennsylvanians. That is why we need to force the issue with this rulemaking petition to protect us from a toxic industry whose sole motivation is to make money as quickly and cheaply as possible.”When Governor Shapiro was Attorney General, the primary recommendation of the 43rd Statewide Investigating Grand Jury’s report on fracking was to enact a 2,500 foot no-drill zone between fracking and homes, as well as a 5,000 foot no-drill zone for schools and hospitals. [Read more here.]In the fall of 2023, Governor Shapiro instructed the Department of Environmental Protection to implement some of the Grand Jury recommendations for better protecting Pennsylvania residents from oil and gas operations, but this notably did not include setbacks. Instead of asking the DEP to develop greater setbacks for the oil and gas industry, he announced a partnership with CNX - a gas company with a history of environmental violations - that included a promise to adhere to voluntary, unenforceable setbacks from homes and schools at distances well below those recommended by the Grand Jury, according to the groups. [Read more here.]Fracking contaminates groundwater (used for public and private drinking water supplies) and also pollutes surface water, impacting headwater streams and other ecosystems. Furthermore, spills often occur in watersheds linked to drinking water sources, according to the groups.Dozens of peer-reviewed scientific studies show that a person’s proximity to fracking wells is associated with severe human health risks and a wide range of ailments, including increased cancer rates, increased hospitalization rates, and higher rates of respiratory, neurological, dermatological, and muscular symptoms. Vulnerable populations are particularly susceptible—numerous studies have shown that proximity to fracking wells harms health for infants and children. In addition to these studies, first-hand accounts of residents living near Pennsylvania fracking wells demonstrate the profound harms of living in close proximity to fracking, the groups said.The petitioners argue in detail-- “Establishing setback requirements as outlined in this Petition would constitute a valid exercise of the EQB’s authority granted by the Oil and Gas Act, the Air Pollution Control Act, and the Clean Streams Law, discussed in this in turn. “Indeed, failing to act on this Petition would violate many statutory obligations imposed on the Board to abate pollution in the state and limit public exposure to environmental harms.”“The EQB is also obligated by the ERA [Environmental Rights Amendment to the state constitution] to advance the Commonwealth’s duties as trustee of Pennsylvania’s public natural resources— a constitutional mandate with which all statutory directives must comport—further necessitating action on this Petition.” Click Here for a copy of the rulemaking petition. DEP must now evaluate the petition to determine if it meets the requirements for the Environmental Quality Board to take action on the issues it raises.DEP must notify the petitioner within 30 days of a petition’s receipt if it meets the requirements, although it has taken much longer for other petitions.Among the specific requirements is a determination of whether the EQB has the statutory authority to take the action requested by the petitioners.

Leftist Enviro Groups Ask PA EQB to Ban Fracking via Bigger Setbacks-- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the radicalized Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project filed a rulemaking petition with the Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) asking the EQB to increase minimum setback distances from fracked wells. Setbacks, also referred to as protective buffers and no-drill zones in the context of fracking, are mandatory distances that fracked wells must abide by to keep them away from homes, schools, hospitals, drinking water wells, and surface water. PA already has a safe and sufficient setback of 500 feet. The groups want that increased by 650% to 3,281 feet. It would ban approximately 95% of all new shale wells in the state.

Susquehanna River Basin Conditions Trigger Low-Flow Water Use Restrictions At 9 Shale Gas Water Withdrawals In Bradford, Susquehanna, Tioga CountiesOn October 19, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission Hydrologic Conditions Monitor shows low stream flows in some areas have triggered water withdrawal restrictions to water users, including 9 shale gas development water withdrawals.Five more shale gas water withdrawals in Bradford, Tioga and Wyoming counties are approaching water restrictions. Shale gas water withdrawals tend to get hit first with withdrawal restrictions because they are often located on smaller streams.The shale gas water withdrawals impacted so far are-- Bradford County

• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Fall Brook, Bense - Troy Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Sugar Creek - West Burlington Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Wappasening Creek Antisdel - Windham Township

Susquehanna County

• -- BKV Operating, LLC - UNT to Middle Branch - Wyalusing Creek - Forest Lake Township
• -- BKV Operating, LLC - East Branch Wyalusing Creek - Jessup Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Choconut Creek - Choconut Township
• -- SWN Production Company, LLC - Tunkhannock Creek - Lenox Township

Tioga County

• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Crooked Creek - Middlebury Township
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Elk Run - Sullivan Township

Water withdrawals with restrictions found on the Hydrologic Conditions Monitor can be looked up on SRBC’s Search for Projects webpage.Contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to report suspected violations of these requirements.For more information on programs, training opportunities and upcoming events, visit the Susquehanna River Basin Commission website. Click Here to sign up for SRBC’s newsletter. Follow SRBC on Twitter, visit them on YouTube.

NYC Dem Politicians, Radical Groups Seek to Jail Big Oil Execs - Marcellus Drilling News - What is happening in American politics is shocking. Unfortunately, we are so shocked almost daily that we’re (as a society) becoming numb to it. Never in the history of our country have the members of one political party sought to jail their political opponents. It’s happening now, and the party/movement in question comes from the left. Democrat elected officials in New York City and progressive advocacy groups are pushing New York City’s prosecutors to charge fossil fuel companies AND their executives with crimes for “reckless endangerment” for their supposed role in causing “climate change.” Never mind that the left can’t prove mankind is catastrophically causing global warming (which is what they mean by climate change). They seek to jail people who disagree with them. It’s astonishing.

US shale production may decline for first time since 2000 - U.S. shale gas production is on track for its first annual decrease in nearly 25 years, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through last month dropped by roughly 1 percent compared to the same time period last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a research analysis Thursday. The agency attributed the dip in output to low natural gas prices, which prompted production declines in the Haynesville and Utica plays.Natural gas prices at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub hit record lows in the first half of 2024, “making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville,” EIA said. Production in the Haynesville play, which covers parts of Texas and Louisiana, decreased by 12 percent during the first nine months of the year. The decrease was 10 percent in the Utica play, which crosses through New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

U.S. shale natural gas production has declined so far in 2024 - U.S. EIA - U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023. The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in theAppalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production.Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth. Drilling costs of Haynesville wells, at depths of 10,500 feet to 13,500 feet, are even higher. Shale natural gas production in the Haynesville was 13.0 Bcf/d in September 2024, 14% less than the peak in May 2023. The Haynesville is the third-largest shale gas-producing play in the United States, behind the Marcellus and the Permian plays. In 2023, shale natural gas production in the Haynesville averaged 14.6 Bcf/d, accounting for 14% of total U.S. dry natural gas production. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price fell 79% from the August 2022 inflation-adjusted high of $9.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to an average of $1.99/MMBtu in August 2024. So far this year, the price has averaged $2.10/MMBtu compared with an inflation-adjusted average of $6.89/MMBtu in 2022 and $2.62/MMBtu in 2023. As natural gas prices declined, the economics of producing natural gas in the dry gas formations worsened, leading producers to shut in production and drop drilling rigs.Producers tend to increase or decrease the number of drilling rigs in operation as natural gas prices fluctuate. The number of natural gas-directed drilling rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has decreased steadily since the end of 2022, according to data fromBaker Hughes. In the Haynesville, an average of 33 rigs were in operation in September 2024, 53% fewer than in January 2023. The number of rigs operating in the Haynesville in September was the lowest it has been since July 2020. In the Utica, an average of seven rigs were operating in September 2024, fewer than half the number that were operating in January 2023, and in the Marcellus, an average of 25 rigs were in operation, about 36% fewer than in January 2023. Although the productivity of newer wells has improved in recent years, the decline in rig counts has contributed to an overall decrease in production.In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast total U.S. dry natural gas production to average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, down slightly from 103.8 Bcf/d in 2023, and to resume modest growth in 2025 at 104.6 Bcf/d.

WV’s Hope Gas Seeks to End “Farm Taps” for 600 Customers - Marcellus Drilling News - It is just coming to light for us now that back in August, Hope Gas, a large local utility company that provides gas service to more than 131,000 residential, industrial, and commercial customers in thirty-seven West Virginia counties, filed a rate case with the state Public Service Commission (PSC) looking to convert customers who use a “farm tap” gas system to either propane fuel or electric heat for their homes. The change would affect around 600 customers, removing them from the ability to use local natural gas.

Kentucky Utilities Want to Build 2 New NatGas Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News - Kentucky has seen unprecedented economic growth in recent years like other southern states. Data centers are looking to Kentucky for future expansion. Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities Company (KU), both part of PPL Corporation, are forecasting in their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) the need for additional power generation due to the expected influx of data centers and economic development across their service territories. The companies want to build two new natural gas combined-cycle generation units---one in 2030 and another in 2031.

AES Indiana Committed to Converting Last Coal Plants to NatGas -- Marcellus Drilling News - AES Indiana, formerly known as Indianapolis Power & Light Company, is a utility company providing electric service to the city of Indianapolis. It is a subsidiary and largest utility of AES Corporation. In August, AES Indiana said that it wants to invest $1.1 billion in Pike County, IN, to convert the company’s two remaining coal-fired power plants to run natural gas instead (see AES Indiana Spending $1.1B to Convert Last Coal Plants to NatGas). Unfortunately, the coal lobby has pressured some Republican politicians, including Indiana's Republican candidate for governor, into opposing the plan. However, AES remains committed.

Natural Gas ‘Clear Winner’ as LNG Contracts and Equipment Orders Rising, Says Baker Hughes Chief -An “all-of-the above strategy” will be needed to meet the world’s growing energy consumption, but “in our view,” nothing beats natural gas, Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said Wednesday. Bar chart showing Baker Hughes' primary energy demand outlook through 2040 with historical comparison. Displays a modest energy growth forecast in Million tons of barrels of oil equivalent. Speaking with investors during the third quarter conference call, Simonelli noted that renewables demand is expanding significantly, providing a pathway to lower emissions. However, solar, wind and other alternatives cannot match the pace of global demand, he said. Meanwhile, oil consumption is flattening. That said, “natural gas is a clear winner,” he said. “This is the age of gas. By 2040, we expect natural gas demand to grow by almost 20%, and global LNG demand to increase at an even faster rate of 75%.”

ExxonMobil, Qatar get 3-yr extension to build their LNG plant in Texas -- Federal regulators on Thursday gave an ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy LNG joint venture a 3-yr extension to finish building their Golden Pass LNG plant, a regulatory document showed. The extension was granted due to delays caused when lead construction contractor Zachry Holdings filed for bankruptcy in March, according to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commision filing. The project, at the Sabine Pass site of a former gas-import terminal that was converted to process natural gas for LNG exports, is one of two large U.S. LNG facilities whose startups were expected to significantly expand supplies from the world's top exporter of the superchilled fuel in the next 12 months. The project's original main contractor, Zachry Holdings filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying the Golden Pass project - known as GPX - was at least $2.4 B over the original budget. Golden Pass is yet to announce a new EPC contractor and has been in negotiations with McDermott International to be the lead contractor on the project.

NextDecade Looks to Avoid Rio Grande LNG ‘Death Spiral’ with DC Circuit Court Rehearing - Rio Grande LNG LLC and Texas LNG Brownsville LLC have requested a rehearing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit over a decision the firms said would derail U.S. project development and create judicial contradictions. The liquefied natural gas export project developers on Monday filed requests seeking a full panel of judges in the DC Circuit to revisit the August order that vacated and remanded FERC authorizations for Rio Grande LNG, the Rio Bravo Pipeline project and Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC’s proposed Texas LNG project (Nos. 23-1175, 23-1222). In Rio Grande LNG’s appeal, lawyers argued that taking the added step of vacating FERC’s authorization of the $18.4 billion LNG project is not supported by federal law and threatens to tank the project despite the likelihood that the Commission would grant its approval of the project for a third time.

Sharp Drop in U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries Stokes Natural Gas Price Volatility — Feed gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities have slipped noticeably this week, largely because of outages at the Cameron and Sabine Pass terminals in Louisiana. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) LNG export flow tracker showing operational export facilities' daily feed gas demand. Overall, deliveries were down 14% on Thursday to 12.4 Bcf/d from week-ago levels, when they hit their highest point of the year at 14.4 Bcf on Oct. 17, according to NGI data. Unplanned maintenance started at the Cameron liquefied natural gas facility over the weekend, and one train is expected to be offline until Friday, Rystad Energy analyst Masanori Odaka said Thursday. It’s unclear why the train is offline. Roughly 250 MMcf/d was impacted Tuesday and Wednesday because of scheduled work on the Columbia Gas Transmission system that helps feed Cameron, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Natural Gas Price Relief Prospects Shrinking as LNG Startups Delayed -The already slim prospects of additional feed gas demand lifting natural gas prices this year could be narrowing as the startup of another U.S. LNG export facility appears at risk of slipping into 2025. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) graph showing all North American operational and under construction LNG export facilities. Graph shows when new export capacity would come online based on market estimates. Global expansions of liquefied natural gas export capacity are limited until 2030, leaving international buyers to hone in on any projects that might be able to help ease supply volatility in the near term. Most of those anticipated projects are sited on the Gulf Coast. However, construction delays have pushed the ramp up of one major project, Golden Pass LNG, to at least the second half of next year. That could limit the chances of added feed gas demand to raise domestic prices.

US natgas prices climb 2% on lower output, higher demand forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday on lower output so far this month and forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected. Capping gains,meteorologists forecast mostly warmer weather through early November, which should limit gas demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.4 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Thefront-month remained intechnically oversold territory for a fourth straight day for the first time since February.On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 10. With gas futures down 22% over the past three weeks, speculators last week cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their lowest since April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts projected energy firms would cut output in calendar 2024 for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Prices have remained relatively low since the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March after many producers reduced drilling activities. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 5. Despite those mild forecasts, it will be cooler with more heating demand in early November than this week. The average temperature in the Lower 48 states will drop to around 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 Celsius) by Nov. 5, according to the latest forecasts, down from an average of 63 F now. That, however, is well above the normal average of 51 F in early November. With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 96.0 bcfd this week to 100.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

U.S. natgas prices jump 8% on cooler weather, higher global gas prices U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% to a one-week high on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and on rising prices for gas in global markets that should boost the value of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That price increase came despite a bearish bigger-than-expected weekly storage build that was also bigger than the five-year average for the first time in 15 weeks. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.0 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $2.522 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since Oct. 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 80 Bft3 of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 18. That was much bigger than the 60- Bft3 build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 81 Bft3 in the same week last year and a five-year (2019–2023) average rise of 76 Bft3 for this time of year. Lower injections in recent weeks came because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Even though the latest forecasts were for lower temperatures than previously expected in coming weeks, meteorologists still expect the weather in the Lower 48 states to remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 8. With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.1 Bft3d this week to 99.4 Bft3d next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 13.0 Bft3d so far in October, up from 12.7 Bft3d in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bft3d in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Gas prices climbed to a 10-month high over $13 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a five-week high near $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

US natgas prices climb 2% to 2-week high on lower output, soaring global gas prices (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about2% to a two-week high on Friday on lower output so far this month and a jump in global gas prices that could boost demand for more U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Earlier in the session, U.S. gas futures were down on forecasts for mild weather through early November that should keep U.S. heating demand low and allow utilities to inject more gas into U.S. storage than is usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $2.560 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Oct. 11 for a second day in a row.That put the front-month up about 13% this week after it fell about 22% over the prior three weeks. Analysts projected utilities were on track to inject more gas into storage this week than normal for a second week in a row for the first time since October 2023. Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers so far this year have reduced drilling activities after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. NGAS/POLL HH/GAS Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities, analysts have projected that average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. The reduction in drilling activities was clear in Pennsylvania where drillers this week cut the number of rigs operating by one to a total of just 12, the lowest since July 2007, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 9. But even warmer than normal weather in early November is cooler than warmer than normal weather in late October. So, with seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.4 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week and 102.4 bcfd in two weeks. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts have noted that overall LNG feedgas will likely remain below record levels for at least a couple more weeks while some firms conduct maintenance on their plants in Louisiana, including Cheniere Energy LNG.N at Sabine and Cameron LNG at Cameron. Gas prices climbed to a 10-month high near $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a six-week high also near $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1.

Kinder Morgan Sanctions GCX Pipeline Expansion as LNG, Mexico Exports Seen Driving Natural Gas Demand Surge – -Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is moving ahead with a $455 million, 570 MMcf/d expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) natural gas pipeline serving the Permian Basin that could be in service by mid-2026, management said Wednesday. The expansion “will enable our customers who have signed long-term throughput agreements to move substantial additional gas” out of the Permian, said Executive Chairman Richard Kinder Wednesday during the Houston-based midstreamer’s third quarter earnings call. The project is designed to increase natural gas deliveries from the Permian to the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas.

Could the U.S. Election Have Ripple Effects on Natural Gas Trade Into Mexico? -The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is being watched closely by those involved in the burgeoning natural gas trade that crosses the border. Bar chart showing yearly value of U.S.-Mexico energy trade. The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was $66.5 billion in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This was down from $77.8 billion in 2022, adjusted for inflation, principally because of lower fuel prices that offset the increase in the volume of energy trade between the two countries. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.57/MMBtu in 2023, about a 62% drop from the 2022 averages, according to EIA. This year, gas prices also have remained low. NGI’s spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price has averaged $2.124 through Tuesday, according to Daily Historical Data.

U.S. LNG Exports to Asia Continue Outpacing European Deliveries -- U.S LNG exports to Europe have declined this year as renewable energy output on the continent reached a record high and intense heat in Asia has found more cargoes heading toward the Pacific Basin. Bar graph showing U.S. LNG exports to the world by country. U.S. exports to Europe fell to 33 million tons (Mt) from January to September, down from nearly 57 Mt during the same period last year, as wind and solar power reached a 30% record share of European power generation, overtaking fossil fuels for the first time During the first four months of 2024, Europe remained the top destination for U.S. exports, but more U.S. cargoes sold to Asia from May to August due to extreme summer temperatures in India, China and South Korea.

Corpus Christi Is Now The World’s Third-Largest Oil Export Port -Soaring U.S. oil exports have made Corpus Christi the world’s third-largest crude export terminal as ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast are shipping growing volumes of American energy to the international markets, including crude oil, fuels, and LNG. The Port of Corpus Christi has just announced record-high volumes moved through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel, thanks to rising shipments of crude oil.The port currently handles more than half of all U.S. crude oil exports and is also the top LNG point of export. Corpus Christi is expanding and deepening the shipping channel to accommodate very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and more traffic, with the port “Moving America’s Energy,” as the port officials say.Total U.S. crude oil exports have jumped to more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, perEIA data, up from just 400,000 bpd before the Obama administration repealed 2015 the ban on American crude oil exports. Before 2016, U.S. crude was exported only to Canada. After the ban was lifted, crude oil from the United States was allowed to flow to overseas markets. Since then, America’s crude has become a key commodity in the global oil market.Surging U.S. crude exports, particularly WTI Midland, have dominated global markets in recent months, with record export volumes and a significant portion being sent to Europe.U.S. exports soared after the U.S. allowed crude oil exports and after midstream operators seized the opportunity to build pipelines in Texas and Louisiana, leading to the U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals.So influential has U.S. oil become that WTI Midland was included last year in the Dated Brent part of the Brent benchmark as one of several grades underpinning the contract.The Port of Corpus Christi has played an important role in helping U.S. crude gain international prominence. It now exports between 2.3 million bpd and 2.4 million bpd of crude, 99% of which goes to foreign markets.Since the U.S. lifted the export ban, Corpus Christi’s crude oil exports have soared 17 times, TJ Gonzalez, the port’s commercial and business development manager, told FreightWaves this month.“It’s what has put us on the map, being the No. 3 export gateway for crude oil in the world,” Gonzalez added.

Phillips 66 plans to cease operations at Los Angeles-area refinery in Q4 2025 --Phillips 66 plans to cease operations at its Los Angeles-area refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will work with the state of California to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand.The Los Angeles Refinery consists of two facilities linked by pipeline located five miles apart in Carson and Wilmington, California, approximately 15 miles southeast of Los Angeles. The Carson facility serves as the front end of the refinery by processing crude oil, and the Wilmington facility serves as the back end of the refinery by upgrading the intermediate products to finished products. Carson is 235 acres (approx.) and the Wilmington facility is 424 acres (approx.).Refinery facilities include crude distillation, naphtha reforming, fluid catalytic cracking, alkylation, hydrocracking, and delayed coking units. The refinery produces a high percentage of transportation fuels. The refinery produces California Air Resources Board (CARB)-grade gasoline. Other products produced include fuel-grade petroleum coke. Refined petroleum products are distributed to customers in California, Nevada and Arizona by pipeline and truck. Gasolines production capacity is 85 thousand barrels per day (MBD) and distillates production is 65 MBD.With the long-term sustainability of our Los Angeles Refinery uncertain and affected by market dynamics, we are working with leading land development firms to evaluate the future use of our unique and strategically located properties near the Port of Los Angeles. Phillips 66 remains committed to serving California and will continue to take the necessary steps to meet our commercial and customer demands.—Mark Lashier, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. As the California Energy Commission’s analysis has indicated, expanding supply capabilities will be critical. Phillips 66 supports these efforts and will work with California to maintain current levels and potentially increase supplies to meet consumer needs. The company will supply gasoline from sources inside and outside its refining network as well as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels from its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex in the San Francisco Bay area.Phillips 66 has engaged Catellus Development Corporation and Deca Companies, two leading real estate development firms, to evaluate the future use of the 650-acre sites in Wilmington, California, and Carson, California. The firms bring strong track records of solving complex redevelopment challenges and will collaborate with Phillips 66 in an advisory role to advance potential commercial development options that support the regional economy and other key stakeholder objectives.

Brazil’s Drought-Driven LNG Demand Ups Global Natural Gas Supply Anxiety Natural gas buyers in Latin America, and especially in drought-stricken Brazil, are adding global competition for LNG cargoes and upward pressure on spot prices. Latin American countries are expected to draw in more than 1 million tons (Mt) by the end of October, with more than half of those volumes coming from the United States, according to Kpler data. Brazil is expected to receive 0.35 Mt by the end of the month, a more than 37% increase over the same period last year. “Over the last few months, Brazil has stepped up liquefied natural gas imports to offset a steep drop-off in hydropower generation brought on by an intense drought,” Kpler researchers wrote in a recent note.

Japanese LNG Buyers Seek Supply Flexibility Amid Growing Global Price Volatility - Major Japanese energy firms, some of the largest private buyers of LNG in the world, are looking to the government to help negotiate more supply contract terms without destination clauses. Bar graph showing Japan's LNG imports since 2020. Traditionally, contracts with destination restrictions have prevented gas buyers from delivering or selling cargoes to recipients in other markets, allowing major liquefied natural gas sellers to avoid competing with themselves. Currently, Japan consumes nearly two-thirds of LNG imports and resells one-third in the global market. As Japan reduces the share of natural gas in its power generation, traders will be looking for more options to send cargoes secured under long-term contracts to other markets when they aren’t needed domestically. Japanese energy firms want the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to help them negotiate contracts.

A 'tidal wave' of LNG supply will reshape global markets, says RBC Capital - The biggest influx of liquified natural gas (LNG) supply is coming online and it will transform the global market, bringing about wide and enduring effects, said RBC Capital Markets. "A wave of new LNG supply —the biggest yet— is set to reshape the global market in the coming years, with broader implications than prior growth given increasing inter-linkages between regional gas markets following the Russia-Ukraine conflict," analysts from the investment bank wrote in a note. The supply injection is likely to thrust the market into an extended period of oversupply by the end of 2026, which will remain until 2030, with prices possibly moving below double-digits, analysts such as RBC's Anan Dhanani have projected. Futures for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas transactions, were trading at $12.78 per mmbtu on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Throughout the year, a growing chorus of analysts have warned that tepid demand growth coupled with looming waves of export capacity could lead to a massively oversupplied market. As a stream of planned infrastructure continues to flood the market, it's unclear if demand will increase to absorb each wave. Oversupply and depressed prices underscore the bearish sentiments in the LNG sector, said Rystad Energy senior analyst Masanori Odaka. Suppliers are now increasingly prioritizing LNG used for shipping utilization over arbitrage opportunities, i.e. profit margins. Commodity arbitrage involves the simultaneous or sequential buying and selling of commodities across different markets to profit from the price difference. Global LNG trade has doubled in the last decade, growing from around 240 metric ton in 2014 to more than 400 metric ton last year, largely caused by the disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, according to RBC Capital. Some had perceived the geopolitical risk as an opportunity in the market. The investment bank projected that global liquefaction capacity, the total amount of LNG that can be produced annually, will grow by around 50% by the end of the decade. The U.S. and Qatar will hold onto their position as the world's biggest suppliers, with a combined market share of almost 50% in 2030, RBC added. Many private companies and state-owned entities have plans to boost capacity, "not only to backstop European consumption but to also capture an expected growth in consumption rates, particularly in Asia," RBC's analysts said. But demand from the Asia-Pacific region, the biggest importer of LNG, is only expected grow by an average of 5% annually. Around 70% of this growth will stem from China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, LNG prices have not seen major fluctuations despite escalating geopolitical tensions. "Surprisingly quiet" was how Meg O'Neill, managing director and CEO of Woodside Energy, described the market. "For me, maybe that's a sign that there's sufficient supply sources around the world to help mitigate any temporary supply disruption coming out of the Middle East. And that's probably true for both oil and LNG," O'Neill told CNBC on the sidelines of the annual Singapore International Energy Week conference. There are other looming challenges to the LNG sector that could affect global markets. The 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter is in sight and existing contracts of Russian gas deliveries to Europe through Ukraine are set to expire at the end of 2024, the International Energy Agency pointed out. "This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine," the IEA wrote in a recent note.. "This in turn would require higher LNG imports into Europe next year, resulting in a tighter global gas balance."

EU's Reliance on Russian LNG Is Growing -Russian LNG accounted for 20% of the EU’s liquefied natural gas imports in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 14% for the same period last year, amid markedly lower EU imports of the super-chilled fuel, a new report by the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) showed on Tuesday.While the Russian LNG share of the EU’s total LNG imports grew, it was a share of a smaller pie. In the third quarter of 2024 alone, EU imports of LNG slumped by 23% compared to a year earlier, ACER, the EU regulator, said in the report.“As demand from other LNG importing regions increased, an otherwise balanced European gas market saw EU buyers shy away from competing for higher priced spot cargoes,” the report read.In the coming weeks, deliveries of LNG into Europe are set to increase with the start of peak gas consumption season, it added.Despite the lower LNG imports so far this year, the rising share of Russia’s LNG in EU supply comes as a concern for several EU member states that have been pushing for ways to curb Europe’s reliance on Russian LNG cargoes.Belgium is seeking a ban on Russian LNG imports into the European Union as the current sanctions regime cannot halt rising imports at EU import terminals, Belgian Energy Minister, Tinne Van der Straeten, told the Financial Times last month.Belgium – alongside the Netherlands, Spain, and France – has been one of the top importers of Russian LNG in recent months, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cutoff of many EU gas customers from Russian pipeline gas.Meanwhile, Europe’s natural gas prices increased over the second and third quarters of 2024 but remained marginally lower and considerably less volatile than last year, ACER said in its report.“Greater availability of Norwegian supply, a comfortable storage position and continued tepid European demand acted as counterweights to a tighter global LNG market due to rising global gas demand, geopolitical tensions and the growing precariousness of residual imports of Russian gas transited via Ukraine,” the watchdog noted.The EU’s natural gas storage is already at 95% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show, after the bloc reached in August its target to have 90% full storage well ahead of its self-imposed binding deadline, November 1.

US Tightens Grip on Russia's LNG Exports - The U.S. is stepping up efforts to curb Russia's LNG exports as part of its broader strategy to cut off funds supporting Moscow's war in Ukraine. According to Geoffrey Pyatt, U.S. Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources, the aim is clear: reduce Russia's revenue from oil and gas. This push has included sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant, which has been particularly effective in stopping tankers from reaching foreign ports due to fears of U.S. retaliation. Located in the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG 2 project was considered key to Russia's efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035. Arctic LNG 2 has been basically on ice since the U.S. imposed in November 2023 fresh sanctions on the Russian project. As a result, foreign shareholders suspended participation in Arctic LNG 2, effectively withdrawing from the financing of the project and for offtake contracts for the new plant.While the Arctic LNG 2 facility has faced restrictions, Russia's other LNG projects, such as Yamal and Portovaya, continue to operate and deliver fuel to Europe and Asia. Sanctioning these facilities would further tighten global LNG supply, which could drive prices up—a move the U.S. is closely monitoring.Pyatt emphasized that the U.S. will continue to "tighten the screws" on Russia's LNG flows, though he stopped short of revealing specific future sanctions. The U.S., as the largest supplier of LNG, enjoys greater flexibility in the market, making it easier to implement these restrictions while keeping supply stable."What I can tell you is that we're paying very, very close attention to where sanctioned Russian cargoes are heading, and you can be assured that the Biden administration is going to continue to tighten the screws against Russia's LNG exports," Pyatt said.The targeted approach against Russia's LNG exports has been one of Washington's rare successes in hindering Russian commodity flows. However, any additional moves against Russia's other LNG facilities will require a careful balance, as they could impact global energy markets and potentially push prices higher.

Russia's Crude Oil Exports Hit Four-Month High - Russian crude oil exports by sea continue to rise as heavy domestic refinery maintenance leaves more crude available for export.Russia exported on average 3.47 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.The four-week average to October 20 was the highest export level for Russia since the end of June, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.At the same time, refining rates at Russian crude processing facilities are on track to decline to their lowest level for more than two years, since May 2022, per Bloomberg’s estimates.The rise in Russian crude shipments was attributed to a surge in crude volumes heading to Asia, the region which now takes nearly all, 95%, of Russia’s crude. Shipments to Asia surged to the highest levels in over five months, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.Due to the increase in export volumes, the gross value of Russia’s observed crude shipments increased to $1.59 billion per week in the four weeks to October 20, up from $1.52 billion a week in the previous four-week period. This was the highest average weekly gross value since the middle of August.Russia has raised the refining capacity volumes it expects to be idle this month by 67% compared to an earlier plan, due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, Reuters estimates showed earlier this month.In October, Russia expects to have 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity offline, per Reuters’s calculations based on figures provided by industry sources. While that’s lower than the idle capacity in September, at 4.5 million tons, it is still higher than previously planned.Previously postponed maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in southwestern Russia and maintenance at a unit of Lukoil’s NORSI refinery have now increased the capacity that would be offline in October, thus leaving more crude for exports.

Bipartisan House members call for tighter sanctions on oil field servicers in Russia - A bipartisan coalition of more than 50 congressional representatives called on the Biden administration to tighten sanctions on Russian oil and specifically address a major U.S. oil field servicer’s presence in Russia. In the letter, led by Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), the members asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to restrict activity by the firm SLB (aka Schlumberger) in Russia after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since the invasion, they wrote, SLB has imported millions of dollars worth of equipment into Russia, including hydraulic packers and drilling tools. At least $3 million of the equipment SLB has imported into Russia in the final five months of 2023 falls into categories that should be subject to international controls if exported from the U.S. or Europe, they wrote. “This U.S.-based company is keeping Vladimir Putin’s war machine well-oiled with financing for the barbaric invasion of Ukraine. We urge you to continue supporting our Ukrainian allies by pursuing more rigorous oil sanctions to effectively restrict Putin’s profits,” the members wrote. “In concert with our allies in the [Group of Seven], we must tighten oil sanctions to prevent the billions in revenue currently flowing into the Kremlin’s budget. Permitting Western investment in the oil and gas sector strengthens Russia’s wartime economy and its military strength.” The representatives asked Yellen and Blinken to clarify whether SLB is aware of “where the guard rails are” regarding sanctions, as a State Department official has reportedly said it is. They also questioned whether the current sanctions program is effective in its goals if it allows an arrangement where American companies can import equipment into Russia from third nations, and they requested a list of all approved exceptions to American sanctions.

Investigation under way after Shell oil pipeline leak in Singapore | Upstream -- Operator assessing the volumes spilt into offshore waters.

Tons of Slop: Shell Scrambles After Major Oil Leak in Singapore Waters --Shell has confirmed an oil leak from a pipeline at its Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Singapore on Pulau Bukom island, with approximately 30-40 metric tonnes of slop–a mixture of oil and water–leaking into the water. The incident, which occurred at around 5:30 a.m. on October 20, 2024, prompted a swift emergency response to contain the spill in the East Johor Strait, within Singapore’s waters. Despite Shell’s quick response, oil sheens were detected in the water channel between Pulau Bukom Besar and Bukom Kecil by late morning. Shell deployed containment booms and anti-pollution crafts, and used dispersants to break up the oil slick. Shell said it is coordinating its efforts with the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) as well as other relevant agencies to mitigate the spill’s impact. Fortunately, no injuries have been reported. “Our priority is to ensure the safety of people and to limit environmental impact as we work on resolving this as quickly as possible,” Shell said in an official statement. The company also expressed appreciation for the cooperation of the authorities and local communities in assisting with the clean-up operations. MPA deployed seven craft equipped with dispersants together with craft from its contractor Singapore Salvage Engineers. It also deployed additional precautions to safeguard Singapore’s key ecological areas. As of October 21, no oil has been detected at sensitive locations, including Sentosa, Sisters’ Islands Marine Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, and East Coast Park. However, preemptive measures, including the deployment of oil absorbent booms, have been taken to protect these biodiversity-sensitive coastlines. Oil containment booms have also been installed near the seawater intake of Singapore’s desalination plants at Jurong Island and Marina East. The Public Utilities Board (PUB) is closely monitoring water quality, and operations at the plants have not been affected by the spill. As a precaution, the PUB has additionally installed containment booms at the Marina Barrage. The leak has raised concerns among businesses and waterfront companies in the area. Authorities have advised companies on Jurong Island and in the western region to take precautionary measures. While there have been no reports of oil sightings affecting local fish farms, the Singapore Food Agency remains in contact with farm operators to ensure vigilance in the coming days. Shell has also informed authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia to monitor for any potential oil sightings along their coastlines, though no cross-border impacts have been reported so far.

HazardEx - Oil leak at Shell Energy and Chemical Park Singapore has stopped -Energy major Shell has confirmed that around 30-40 metric tonnes of slop, a mixture of oil and water, leaked from a pipeline at the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park on Bukom island in Singapore on 20 October. No one was injured in the incident and operations were unaffected, however the company said it was taking steps to clean up a spill in a nearby water channel. Shell said in a statement that the leak occurred at around 05:30 local time from a land-based pipeline. The leak was stopped at around 15:00 although oil sheens were detected in the water channel between the Bukom Besar and Kechil islands. Shell said it had activated emergency response specialists to help manage the situation. There are no injuries reported and relevant authorities were informed, the energy major added. The company said it had deployed containment booms, anti-pollution crafts and spraying of dispersant to contain and break up the oil as part of on-going clean-up effort. An estimated 30-40 metric tonnes of slop leaked into the sea in total. Shell sold its Singaporean refinery and petrochemical plants in early May to a joint venture between Indonesian petrochemical company Chandra Asri and trading house Glencore. The sale is expected to be completed before the end of 2024.

IOCL plugs oil leakage at Paradip -- The IndianOil has issued a clarification over recent reports regarding crude oil leakage from its underground pipeline in Paradip. According to the clarification issued by GM (Corporate Communications), Eastern Region, Indian Oil Corporation Limited on the evening of October 20th, 2024, a leakage was detected in Jetty Pipeline at a spot near Nehru Bungalow, which is under repair since few months. The leakage was spotted while testing the repaired portion of the pipeline with all safety measures in place. As soon as the leakage was detected IOCL maintenance team present at the site immediately swung into action to arrest the leakage. Further, the spilled furnace oil was salvaged through Mobile Oil Spill Recovery Unit (MOSRU) prior to cleaning the area. The pipeline was continuously monitored during the night of 20th/ 21st October 2024 to identify further leakages throughout the jetty line. No further leakages were found at any other place. IndianOil has taken immediate action to address these operational concerns. There has been no ingress of any spilled oil to water bodies/mangroves affecting the marine life. The clarification stated that IndianOil remains committed to the safety and security of its operations and the safety of local communities. IOCL has stated that it will continue to take necessary measures to prevent such operational incidents in future.

Ennore oil spill: TNPCB demands Rs 74 crore compensation from CPCL - The Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board (TNPCB) on Thursday demanded Rs 74 crore compensation from the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) for the 2023 oil spill in Ennore. The TNPCB made the demand when the National Green Tribunal (NGT) Southern Bench, was hearing a suo motu case related to the spill, allegedly caused by CPCL. It stated that the oil spill caused significant damage to the ecologically sensitive Ennore Creek and Kosathaliyar River, severely affecting the livelihoods of hundreds of fishermen. During the hearing, the TNPCB revealed that a committee constituted by the board had determined the compensation to be Rs 74 crore. Of this amount, Rs 35.43 crore would be allocated to address the socio-economic damages, while Rs 38.24 crore would be set aside for environmental damages. The NGT bench, comprising judicial member Justice Pushpa Sathyanarayana and expert member Satyagopal Karalapati, directed the government counsel and other parties to submit their reports and objections during the second hearing scheduled for January 24. The Tamil Nadu government had commissioned a study on the Ennore oil spill by IIT-Madras and the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa. According to the IIT-Madras report, the flooding of open tanks at CPCL during the floods was suspected as the primary source of the oil spill. The report estimated that the oil spill ranged between 647 cubic metres (or 517 tonnes) and 3,212 cubic metres (or 2,569 tonnes). The lower figure of 517 tonnes is a conservative estimate, while 3,212 cubic metres (2,569 tonnes) represents a less conservative assessment. The Tamil Nadu Water Resources Department (WRD) has accused CPCL of deliberately leaking oil through its pipelines during the monsoon periods. The WRD claimed that oil floating on the surface of the Buckingham Canal was visual evidence of this. They also argued that CPCL takes advantage of the monsoon’s dilution effect on the canal to release oil deliberately. The WRD urged the TNPCB to ensure that no such environmental hazards occur in the future and called for stricter enforcement against CPCL to prevent deliberate oil leaks.

Saudi Oil Export Revenue Slumps to Lowest in Over 3 Years | Rigzone -- Saudi Arabia’s revenue from oil exports has slumped to the lowest in more than three years as sluggish demand growth weighs on crude prices. Income from the sale of crude oil and refined products dropped to $17.4 billion in August, a 6% slide from the previous month, according to the state statistics agency. That’s the lowest level of monthly revenue since June 2021. The Saudi economy is still largely dependent on oil income for growth, even more so now that the country has embarked on an ambitious plan to expand its technology, tourism and manufacturing industries. The massive investment required to realize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to transform the economy relies on oil revenue to fund initiatives aimed at decreasing reliance on income from hydrocarbons. That effort has been complicated by falling oil prices and lower production. Global benchmark Brent crude is down about 1% this year and is trading around $75 a barrel. Growth in oil consumption has been sluggish, particularly in China, one of the most important import markets, while new supply from countries like the US — now the world’s top producer — is outpacing demand growth and weighing on prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been restricting output to prop up the market. That’s limited the amount of crude that Saudi Arabia, the leader of the alliance, can sell. The wider OPEC+ group, which includes producers like Russia, is set to roll back some of those cuts in December, though it’s left the door open to keeping those limits in place if needed to avoid oversupply. Oil is down 3% since the end of August.

Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025 -Oil prices are expected to average $76 per barrel next year amid sufficient supply and ample spare capacity, according to Goldman Sachs.“Overall, we still see the medium-term risks to our $70-85/bbl range as two-sided but skewed moderately to the downside on net as downside price risks from high spare capacity and potentially broader trade tariffs outweigh upside price,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters.Oil prices are currently close to Goldman’s call for next year. Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices were down by over 1% to $74.60. The U.S. benchmark price, WTI Crude, was holding onto the $70 a barrel handle, trading down 1.8% to $70.40, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late on Tuesday a crude inventory build that was larger than expected.By the end of this year, oil prices could rise due to what Goldman’s analysts described as Brent time spreads “underpricing physical tightness somewhat.” “Despite large global spare capacity and so far undisrupted Iran oil production, we don't think that a 2025 supply glut is a done deal,” Goldman analysts warned.They currently see the geopolitical risk premium as limited, but cautioned that the unresolved conflict in the Middle East could inflame the war risk premium and oil prices at any time.Two months ago, Goldman Sachs reduced its expected range for Brent by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel, citing weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising U.S. shale production.Higher supply from America, and possibly from OPEC+ later this year and in 2025, has led Goldman Sachs to forecast that Brent Crude prices would average below $80 per barrel next year.Morgan Stanley has also recently revised its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting expectations of increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers amid signs of weakening global demand. The bank now anticipates that while the crude oil market will remain tight through the third quarter, it will begin to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially move into a surplus by 2025.

Oil Prices Gain 2% After China Boosts Stimulus Measures - Oil markets have kicked off the new week on a strong footing with oil prices climbing after Chinese banks adopted extra stimulus measuresin a bid to spur economic growth. Brent crude for December delivery gained 2.01% to trade at $74.53 per barrel at 13.53 pm ET, while WTI crude for November delivery was up 2.61% to trade at $71.03 per barrel. Last month, the PBOC cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points, the most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic. Chinese banks built on that on Monday by cutting their benchmark lending rates by a more than-expected 25 bp, a move expected to stimulate economic growth and boost energy demand by the world’s largest oil importer. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered to 3.10% from 3.35%, surpassing expectations of a 20-bp cut while the five-year LPR was lowered to 3.60% from 3.85%, also higher than expectations of a 20-bp cut. Weak oil demand by China has been playing a major role in the ongoing bearish sentiment in oil markets. Bloomberg estimates that total Chinese oil demand this year (Jan-Sep) is down -3.8% y/y to 13.99 million bpd.Last week, the oil price rally reversed again thanks to a bearish economic report coming from China. China’s inflation data for September showed that consumer prices increased by a modest 0.4%, falling short of economist expectations of 0.6%. This marked the slowest price increase in three months, Reuters noted in its report. Whereas lower consumer prices are normally considered bullish for oil prices, the experts are interpreting China’s slowing inflation as a reflection of weaker demand that will continue to weaken as inflation slows.“China faces persistent deflationary pressure due to weak domestic demand. The change of fiscal policy stance as indicated by the press conference yesterday (Saturday) would help to deal with such problems,” the chief economist of Hong Kong-based Pinpoint Asset Management told Reuters.

The Market Remains Concerned Over the Expectation of an Israeli Retaliatory Attack -- The oil market posted an inside trading day on Monday as it retraced some of the previous week’s losses amid the continuing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The market remains concerned over the expectation of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. The market posted a low of $69.00 in overnight trading before it bounced off its low and retraced most of Friday’s losses amid escalated fighting in the Middle East, with Israel stepping up its operations against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip and carrying out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s financial arm in Lebanon. The crude market rallied to a high of $71.03 in afternoon trading. The November WTI contract erased some of its gains ahead of the close and settled up $1.34 at $70.56. The December Brent contract settled up $1.23 at $74.29. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in higher territory, with the heating oil market settling up 3.11 cents at $2.1833 and the RB market settling up 1.27 cents at $2.0147. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from China as the country electrifies its car fleet and the economy grows at a slower pace. The IEA Executive Director said China, which has accounted for more than 60% of global oil demand growth in the last decade when its economy grew at 6.1% on average, is slowing down. He said Chinese oil demand would have been flat this year if not for petrochemicals. He added that another factor capping oil prices is the increase of supply from non-OPEC producers, the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana, which is higher than global oil demand growth. Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials, that Israel gave the United States a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon. It reported that Israel has demanded its IDF forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border. Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space. A U.S. official told Axios it was highly unlikely that Lebanon and the international community would agree to Israel’s conditions. The State Department said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make another push for a ceasefire when he heads to the Middle East on Monday, seeking to begin negotiations to end the Gaza war and also defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon. It said the U.S. Secretary of State will discuss with regional leaders the importance of ending the war in Gaza, ways to create a post-conflict plan for the Palestinian enclave, and how to reach a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to have about 819,000 barrels per day of capacity offline in the week ending Oct. 25, raising available refining capacity by 192,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 599,000 bpd in the week ending November 1st.

Oil prices rise nearly 2%, recovers some of last week's 7% decline (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and expected Israeli retaliation on Iran worrying markets about supply from the region. Brent crude futures were up $1.23, or 1.68%, at $74.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $1.34, or 1.94% higher, at $70.56 a barrel.Brent settled more than 7% lower last week, while WTI lost around 8%. Those were the contracts' biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, due to slowing economic growth in China and falling risk premiums in the Middle East.Israeli forces besieged hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday, medics said, as they stepped up operations against Palestinian militants. Israel also carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah's financial arm in Lebanon.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make another push for a ceasefire when he heads to the Middle East on Monday, the State Department said, seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and also defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon.U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut on Monday on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, two sources told Reuters."Crude futures getting a lift this morning as escalated fighting continues in Middle East... Israel is also preparing for more retaliatory attacks likely into Iran," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial."The sell-off in crude over the past two weeks was mostly on long liquidation as the crude market continues to search for an equilibrium between slowing demand and continued unrest in the Middle East," he added.China on Monday cut benchmark lending rates as anticipated, part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.Data on Friday showed China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.China's oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing as the world's No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.Saudi Aramco's CEO told an energy conference in Singapore on Monday that he was still "fairly bullish" on China's oil demand in light of stepped-up policy support aimed at boosting growth, and on rising demand for jet fuel and liquid-to-chemicals.Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Monday repeated that he expects "modest" interest-rate cuts over the coming quarters, though a sharp weakening of labor markets could move him to advocate for faster rate cuts.Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that weekly oilfield production rose by 100,000 barrels per day to a record 13.5 million bpd during the week ended Oct. 11.U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 100,000 barrels last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten -Oil prices settled higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, as traders downplayed hopes of a Middle East ceasefire and focused on signs of improving demand from China, which could tighten market balances in the months ahead. Brent crude futures for December gained $1.75, or 2.4%, to settle at $76.04 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery rose by $1.53, or 2.2%, to $72.09 a barrel and expired after Tuesday's settlement. Beijing's recent efforts to reinvigorate its slowing economy have led some analysts to raise expectations for oil demand in the world's largest crude-importing nation. Weak demand from China amid rapid electrification of its car fleets weighed heavily on oil prices in recent months. Both Brent and WTI rose nearly 2% on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline, after China announced cuts to benchmark lending rates. Any improvement in economic growth should also boost fuel consumption. Still, it may take some time for the stimulus efforts to filter through to oil demand, said StoneX analyst Alex Hodes. "We have perhaps seen the low point in demand, but I do not know if there is much consensus regarding how much it can improve the situation," Hodes said. In a note to clients on Monday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said their China demand tracker rose by about 100,000 barrels per day in the prior week to a six-month high, partly as the country's industrial production and retail sales beat expectations. China on Tuesday set crude import quotas for next year at 257 million metric tons , up from this year's 243 million tons. Global oil inventories point to a supply deficit in the fourth quarter, which should support prices in the near term, Hodes said. Global petroleum stocks were around 1.24 billion barrels last week, 5 million barrels lower than last year, according to StoneX's review of data from major trading hubs. U.S. crude stocks rose 1.64 million barrels last week, whereas gasoline and distillate fuel combined fell by 3.5 million barrels, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 300,000-barrel increase in crude stocks. Oil prices eased slightly in low-volume, after-hours trading, with Brent crude at $75.51 a barrel. Government data on U.S. stockpiles is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET . [EIA/S] In the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the first big push for a Middle East ceasefire since Israel killed the leader of Hamas last week. Washington hopes this will provide an opportunity for peace. Blinken has made little progress towards a ceasefire in his previous 11 visits to the region since the war in Gaza erupted, so there is skepticism among investors that this will be any different, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Israel has so far shown no sign of relenting in its Gaza and Lebanon campaigns, while Iran-allied Hezbollah ruled out negotiations while fighting with Israel continues.

Oil scores back-to-back gains, but 'bearish landscape' remains -- Oil futures scored a second straight session of gains on Tuesday to claw back some of steep losses suffered last week, with prices supported by some upbeat prospects for Chinese demand and ongoing concerns that the Middle Eastern conflict will threaten crude flows from the region. Traders also awaited official U.S. data due out Wednesday that are expected to reveal weekly declines in U.S. crude and petroleum product supplies, though one analyst warned that oil remains bearish given a slowdown in global economic growth. Price moves -- West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery CL.1 CLX24 rose $1.53, or 2.2%, to settle at $72.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on the contract's expiration day. The more actively traded December contract CL00 CLZ24 , which is now the front-month contract, rose $1.70, or 2.4%, to $71.74 a barrel. -- December Brent crude BRN00 BRNZ24, the global benchmark, gained $1.75, or 2.4%, at $76.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. -- November gasoline RBX24 tacked on 2.8% to $2.07 a gallon, while November heating oil HOX24 rose 2.5% to $2.24 a gallon. -- Natural gas for November delivery NGX24 settled at $2.31 per million British thermal units, down less than 0.1%. Market drivers The fundamental backdrop for the oil market "remains pretty black-and-white here as demand outlooks have been getting steadily revised lower amid fading momentum in global economic growth," said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Production and supply projections for the quarters ahead also continue to be revised to the upside, he told MarketWatch. Downward revisions to demand outlooks and upward changes to output forecasts provide 'a bearish landscape for oil that will likely result in oil futures trading with a $50 handle before a $90 handle.'Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research "The product of those physical market dynamics is a bearish landscape for oil that will likely result in oil futures trading with a $50 handle before a $90 handle," Richey said. Still, oil prices have climbed, supported by more economic stimulus measures by China announced on Monday, as well as continued uncertainty over the potential for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran. Oil prices had ended lower last week after news reports said Israel had informed the U.S. it wouldn't target Iran's nuclear or energy facilities. Front-month WTI dropped more than 8% last week, while Brent lost more than 7%. However, the ongoing conflict is the "elephant in the room" for oil traders, and Israel's pledged retaliation for Iran's early October missile attack remains a "potential bullish wildcard to watch for the oil market here," said Richey. A retaliatory strike that meaningfully escalates tensions in the region poses an "upside threat to global oil prices as oil production, energy infrastructure, and shipping routes would all be at risk of disruption." Demand remains a concern, however. Based on processing, crude production and import statistics, the oil market in China was oversupplied by 930,000 barrels per day in September, Carsten Fritsch, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. A month-on-month increase in processing, coupled with a decline in imports, reduced the implicit supply surplus by half compared with August, he said, but China's oil market remains "in a weak spot," Fritsch said. He added that China's implied oil demand, which is the difference between crude-oil processing and net exports of oil products, was down 2% year over year in September. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration will release its weekly data on domestic petroleum supplies on Wednesday. On average, analysts forecast inventory declines of 800,000 barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Oct. 18, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. They also expect to see weekly decreases of 2.1 million barrels for gasoline and 2.4 million barrels for distillates.

WTI Dips After Largest Crude Inventory Jump Since April --After two days of gains, oil prices roller coastered overnight with WTI testing down to $70 before bouncing back up to $71.50 ahead of this morning's official inventory and supply data. API reported a mixed bag last night as we are sure the impact of the Hurricanes is still rippling through this data.API

• Crude +1.64mm (+800k exp)
• Cushing -216k
• Gasoline -2.02mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -1.48mm (-1.6mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +5.47mm (+800k exp)
• Cushing -346k
• Gasoline +878k (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -1.14mm (-1.6mm exp)

Crude stocks soared by 5.5mm barrels last week (well above expectations), Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built as gasoline inventories dropped for the 5th straight week...Including the 760k barrels added to the SPR, this is the biggest weekly build since April... That pushed total crude stocks up to their highest since August... US Crude production remains at record highs (13.5mm b/d)... WTI dipped off rebound highs after the official data...

Oil Falls on U.S. Inventory Build -Oil dropped as US crude inventories posted an unexpectedly high build and the Biden administration renewed efforts to secure a cease-fire in the Middle East.West Texas Intermediate fell about 1.4% to settle below $71 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent slid to settle at just under $75. US government figures showed the country’s crude stockpiles rose by 5.47 million barrels last week, more than the 1.6 million-barrel increase projected by an industry group on Tuesday.That caused WTI’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — to fall to the lowest intraday level since early this month during the session, a sign of a potential supply glut. On a seasonal basis, crude processing now is at the highest since 2018 as refineries increased runs. Crude prices found a floor during the day thanks to persisting geopolitical risks, “If we had seen something really notable on the production side, that may have been a bigger driver, but this is a number that the market can look through and say ‘Hey, what’s going on with the macro again?’” WTI pared losses on a report that Nigeria plans to defer as many as six cargoes of Forcados crude that were due to load next month into December.Oil has had a roller-coaster ride in October, with traders piling into options markets as hostilities in the Middle East raised the specter of supply disruptions in a region that accounts for about a third of world output. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar opened new possibilities for ending the conflict in Gaza.WTI for December delivery shed 1.4% to settle at $70.77 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement fell 1.4% to settle at $74.96 a barrel.

Oil falls more than 1% on higher US crude stocks as market watches Middle East -Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by more than expected even as refining activity rebounded, though futures remained up about 2% this week as traders factored in continuing conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude futures dropped $1.08, or 1.42%, to close at $74.96 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 97 cents, or 1.35%, to settle at $70.77 a barrel.Oil had settled higher in the previous two sessions, paring last week's losses of more than 7%. Those declines stemmed from worries about Chinese demand and some easing concerns around Middle East oil supply being disrupted, but investor sentiment appeared to reverse at the start of this week.In the U.S., crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 18, the Energy Information Administration said, exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 270,000-barrel rise. "The large crude oil inventory build this week is offsetting the drop last week. But a lot of this is a result of the rebound in crude oil imports, a lot of it had to do with the hurricane," said Andrew Lipow, referring to the previous week's drawdown due to lower imports and demand post Hurricane Milton.As facilities exit from seasonal fall maintenance refinery runs continued to climb, yielding a build in gasoline and distillates showed a minor draw last week, analysts said.Also pressuring oil prices, the dollar index rose on Wednesday to its highest since late July. A firmer U.S. currency can hurt demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers using other currencies.The impact of the crude stocks build on prices was countered somewhat by persistent concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East."The market continues to wait for Israel's response to Iran's missile attack," ING analysts said on Wednesday, adding that Tuesday's price strength was possibly because of the lack of any outcome from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest visit to Israel.Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy Israeli air strikes on a Lebanese port city Tyre demonstrated that there was no respite."Market participants priced for the Middle East conflict to drag for longer, with a ceasefire deal potentially seeing some gridlock,"

Concerns That Slow Economic Growth in Europe Could Reduce Energy Demand -- After posting an inside trading day on Wednesday, the oil market on Thursday posted an outside trading day. The market weighed the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East against concerns that slow economic growth in Europe could reduce energy demand. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading and rallied to a high of $72.34 early in the morning on risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Early Thursday, Israel launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus, the latest such attack alongside the war in Gaza. This followed Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs a day earlier and after Hezbollah said it fired precision guided missiles for the first time at Israeli targets. However, the oil market erased all of its earlier gains amid some less than supportive economic news concerning Europe, with euro zone business activity stalling this month and remaining in contractionary territory. The crude market sold off to a low of $69.77 in afternoon trading. The December WTI contract settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and settled down 58 cents at $70.19. The December Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $74.38. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.93 cents at $2.2023 and the RB market settling down 1.37 cents at $2.0277. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States does not want a protracted Israeli campaign in Lebanon. He also said he hoped Iran was getting a clear message that any further attacks on Israel risked its own interests, with the region awaiting the retaliation Israel has vowed for an Iranian missile attack on October 1^st. An Israeli strike killed three Lebanese troops in south Lebanon on Thursday as France hosted a conference to rally support for Lebanese state forces which are seen as vital to any diplomatic resolution of the war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Lebanese army said the soldiers were killed as they were evacuating wounded people on the outskirts of southern village of Yater. There was no immediate comment on the strike from the Israeli military, which has previously said it is not operating against the Lebanese army. On Wednesday, the Pentagon said U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart that Washington had deep concerns about reports of strikes against the Lebanese armed forces. He also urged Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to make sure Israel takes steps to ensure the safety and security of the Lebanese armed forces and the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his call for a ceasefire in Lebanon on Thursday, adding he regretted that Iran had engaged Hezbollah against Israel but also criticized Israel’s operations in the south of the country.Syria’s Defense Ministry said Israeli strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the western city of Homs early on Thursday killed one soldier and injured seven. The attacks targeted the central Damascus neighborhood of Kafr Sousa and a military site in the Homs countryside.Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said the United States, Qatar, and Egypt continue their efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Oil prices ease on possible new Middle East ceasefire talks (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% in volatile trade on Thursday on reports the U.S. and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.Brent futures settled 58 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $74.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) slipped 58 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $70.19.Earlier in the session, both benchmarks traded up over $1 a barrel on concerns the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could result in oil supply disruptions and from uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5."(The) energy complex continues to zig and zag as Middle East risk premium expands and contracts almost daily," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.After Iran fired missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, Brent crude surged about 8% during the week ended Oct. 4 on worries Israel would attack Iran's oil infrastructure. It fell about 8% in the week ended Oct. 18 on reports Israel would not hit energy infrastructure, easing fears of supply disruptions.Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed.Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports.Iran backs several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.With the fast-approaching U.S. presidential election, which could alter U.S. Middle East and oil policy, President Joe Biden's administration continued to push for peace between Israel and Hezbollah and Hamas."(Former President Donald) Trump is leading over (Vice President Kamala) Harris based on current data from betting markets and Trump has proposed making the U.S. a major oil supplier," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, adding that such a move could depress prices. While betting markets put Trump ahead, other polls show the result is too close to call. In Europe, Euro zone business activity stalled again this month, remaining in contractionary territory as demand from both home and abroad fell despite firms barely increasing their prices, a survey showed on Thursday.In the UK, optimism among British firms has sunk, according to two surveys published on Thursday, six days before finance minister Rachel Reeves tries to chart a way between raising taxes and boosting growth in the new government's first budget.In the U.S., new applications for U.S. unemployment aid unexpectedly fell last week, but the number of people collecting benefits in mid-October was the highest in nearly three years, indicating it was becoming harder for those losing jobs to land new positions.

Oil settles up, weekly gain 4% as investors weigh Middle East risk and US election (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday and gained 4% on the week, with investors taking stock of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as the U.S. election next month.Brent crude futures settled up $1.67, or 2.25%, at $76.05 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.59, or 2.27%, to $71.78.Brent settled 4% up on the week, while WTI settled 3.7% higher on the week. "Really it seems like the market is bouncing around in a holding pattern till we get an answer to some of these questions on Israel, the war and the election," "The election is creating uncertainty in a lot of markets and people are pulling in their horns a little bit, not ready to be making big commitments because of the potential for spikes, volatility and uncertainty," Investors globally are piling into the U.S. dollar and betting on rising volatility ahead of these next crucial two weeks leading up to the Nov. 5 electionin the U.S., as well as an election in Japan, and three major central banks deciding on interest rates and the UK government presenting its new budget. Both benchmarks have fluctuated this week, rising on Monday and Tuesday before falling on Wednesday and Thursday, largely on expectations of heightened or reduced Middle East risk. "Geopolitics is the leading force today that we are seeing, otherwise we are just waiting to see what happens with the (U.S.) election, and what direction that will push markets in," An Israeli strike killed three journalists in south Lebanon on Friday, Lebanon's health ministry said, and the UN refugee agency warned that Israeli airstrikes on a border crossing with Syria were hindering refugees trying to flee the war.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was a sense of urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah, while calling for the protection of civilians.U.S. and Israeli officials are set to restart talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.Investors continue to await Israel's response to an Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1. A response could involve strikes on Tehran's oil infrastructure, though media reports last week said Israel would strike military rather than nuclear or oil targets.Elsewhere, traders are also seeking more clarity on China's stimulus policies, though analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand.Goldman Sachs on Thursday left its oil price forecasts unchanged at between $70 and $85 a barrel for Brent in 2025, expecting the impact from any Chinese stimulus to be modest relative to bigger drivers such as Middle East oil supply.Bank of America is forecasting Brent crude to average $75 a barrel in 2025 without any rolling back of OPEC+ production cuts into next year, it said in a note on Friday.

WTI Breaks Key Level, Closes Week Higher -- Oil rose, notching a gain for the week, as traders kept an eye on the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict and a deluge of other potentially pivotal market drivers. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.3% to settle near $72 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent settled just above $76. The US benchmark pushed past its 50-day moving average of about $71.65, a technical level that can contribute to accelerated buying from algorithmic traders. WTI swung in a range of more than $3.50 over the last five sessions as tensions in the Middle East remain high. The US has signaled to Saudi Arabia — the largest source of OPEC’s spare capacity — that it’s ready to help defend the kingdom in the event of an escalation. The New York Times reported that Iran has ordered its armed forces to be prepared for war, though it’s also trying to avoid it. “If we had progress on cease-fire talks, that would probably calm the market a little more, but that’s not happening,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank. “So the market does have to tense up ahead of the weekend.” The market is also monitoring any possible changes to output plans from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies as well as the outlook for the US election, which is now less than two weeks away. The array of potential catalysts has spurred frenzied trading in options markets as traders seek to protect against price swings, while volumes have been comparatively more limited in futures. Oil has been whipsawed this month by the tensions in the Middle East, as well as concerns that the market may face a glut next year, driven by output growth from non-OPEC+ producers and plans by the cartel to ease curbs. WTI for December delivery climbed 2.3% to settle at $71.78 a barrel in New York. Brent for December delivery added 2.2% to settle at $76.05 a barrel.

Gallant Says Strike on Iran Will Show World Israel's 'Might' - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that he told a group of Israeli pilots and air crews that the world will see the Israeli military’s “might” once it launches an attack on Iran.“In my conversation with them I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price,” Gallant wrote on X.He said in the post that Israel was fighting a war on “seven fronts,” referring to Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.In a video of Gallant addressing the airmen, he said, “After we attack in Iran, they will understand in Israel and elsewhere what your preparations have included.”Gallant’s comments come amid anticipation of an Israeli attack on Iran in response to the October 1 Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israel, which was retaliation for a series of Israeli escalations. The US has vowed to defend Israel from any Iranian response to the coming Israeli attack and deployed a THAAD missile defense system to Israeli territory for that purpose. The THAAD system was deployed with about 100 troops, who could become potential targets of Iranian missiles.

Iran could blast Israel with 1,000 missiles in horror revenge attack for any IDF assault - Iran could unleash 1,000 missiles towards Israel if a long-awaited revenge barrage hits its nuclear, oil or energy infrastructure, it was claimed last night. A potentially devastating weapons salvo would be Tehran’s potential retaliation if Israel breaches the Supreme Leader’s so-called missile attack red-lines. It comes as the Middle East braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s 200-strong missile attack on October 1, in revenge for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s killing. And a further 38 Palestinians civilians have been killed in Gaza, whilst three journalists died in an Israeli airstrike on their compound in Lebanon. The clock is ticking on Israel’s response which, it has promised, will be launched before the November 5 US election - but the targets are being kept secret. According to US reports citing sources within Tehran’s shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, leader Ayotollah Khamenei had ordered preparations to hit Israel. Reports suggest Iran may not escalate in a further tit-for-tat exchange if Israel merely attacks its military bases and equipment stores - avoiding nuclear, oil and energy sites. Attacking the nuclear, oil and, or, energy sites could result in Iran firing off 1,000 ballistic missiles, possibly forcing a flare-up into a much wider regional battleground. The Iranian escalatory response would also include an attack from Tehran’s proxies, the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah, who are fighting Israeli troops. Israel is suffering increasing losses in bloody battles in Lebanon - with ten IDF soldiers killed in 24 hours and many more injured. Mossad’s top spy master David Barnea is preparing for more Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar. And the last orders from Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar have emerged - telling fighters to look after remaining hostages so they can be used as leverage. Notes penned by Sinwar before his recent killing emerged in reports from the Middle East. As ground battles rage in southern Lebanon around 130 IDF reservists have insisted on not fighting in Lebanon and Gaza. An attack on a "press-marked” guesthouse in Hasbaya, south east Lebanon, used by a dozen journalists killed three men working for Al-Manar TV and Al-Mayadeen TV. Lebanon's information minister said the attack was deliberate and described it as a "war crime.” An al-Jazeera journalist said on camera: “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. An al-Jazeera journalist said on camera: “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. “We coordinated with them all.” The Israeli military has not yet commented, but has previously denied targeting journalists. Those killed were camera operator Ghassan Najjar and engineer Mohamed Reda from pro-Iranian news channel Al Mayadeen, as well as camera operator Wissam Qassem from the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar. The Lebanese ministry of health said three others were injured in the blast.

Israel launched strikes on Iran in a retaliatory attack. Here’s what we know -- Israel said on Saturday it had struck military targets inside Iran in response to earlier Iranian attacks, again raising fears that the long-running confrontation between the two powerful militaries could escalate into an all-out regional war that draws in the United States.The Israeli military said it had targeted Iranian missile manufacturing sites and aerial defense systems in what appeared to be a highly calculated response that avoided critical energy infrastructure, such as oil fields and nuclear facilities.Calling the strikes a “clear violation” of international law, Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it “considers itself entitled and obligated to defend itself.”But Iran also appeared to downplay the impact, claiming its air defenses had successfully countered the strikes in three provinces – Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan – and that the damage was “limited.”The Iranian army said Saturday morning that two soldiers were killed in the strikes, without clarifying where the deaths happened. The Iranian soldiers di ed “confronting the projectiles of the criminal Zionist entity,” a reference to Israel, the army said in a statement, which was published on state media.The US meanwhile described the attack as “an exercise in self-defense” that “specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets.”Israel had vowed Iran would pay for its large-scale missile attack on October 1 that saw around 200 missiles fired at Israel, forcing people across the country to take cover in bomb shelters. For weeks Israeli leaders have been deliberating on the nature and scope of such a response.In the early hours of Saturday local time, Israel launched direct airstrikes against Iran, conducting what it said was “precise strikes on military targets.”The Israeli military said its air force struck “missile manufacturing facilities” that it said were used to produce the missiles that Iran had fired at Israel over the last year.It also said the Israeli military struck “surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.” It is unclear if those manufacturing facilities also produced missiles launched by Iranian proxies Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi rebels in Yemen.Iran later confirmed the attack but said the strikes caused only “limited damage” in some areas, while images broadcast on state media showed the calmness on the streets of the capital Tehran.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu monitors the attack on Iran from an undisclosed location. Parts of the image were obscured by the Israel Defense Forces.Iran’s state news agency reported strikes targeting “military centers in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam” had been “successfully intercepted.”Several explosions were heard west of Tehran around 2:15 a.m. local time (7 p.m. ET Friday), according to the state news agency. Iranian officials said blasts heard around the country were related to air defense systems being deployed.The initial strikes were closely followed by a second wave, as video posted to social media by Tehran residents showed tracer fire and explosions illuminating the Iranian capital’s sky as dawn neared. A third and final wave then followed.By about 6 a.m. local time, the Israeli military said it has concluded its operation, saying the “mission was fulfilled” and Israeli jets “have safely returned home.”

Lying Western Press Scramble To Frame Israel's Attack On Iran As Self-Defense - Caitlin Johnstone - Israel has launched a round of airstrikes on Iran which the western news media are falling all over themselves to falsely frame as “retaliatory” strikes against an unprovoked missile attack by Iran. As always, history begins the moment Israel is attacked, and all events leading up to that attack vanish from the official record as the imperial propaganda services churn out their headlines.“Israel Launches Airstrikes Against Iran in Retaliatory Attack,” reads a headline from The New York Times, subtitled “Israel had promised strikes after Iran fired several waves of ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month.” “Israel has begun its retaliatory strikes on Iran, source says,” reads a headline from CNN.“Israel begins retaliatory strikes against Iran following missile barrage targeting Israelis,” reads a headline from Fox News.“Israel launches retaliatory attack against Iran,” reads a headline from Axios.“Live updates: Israel says it has launched retaliatory attacks in Iran,” reads a headline from NBC News.“Israel fires retaliatory strikes against Tehran over ballistic missile barrage,” reads a headline in The New York Post.“Israel Launches Strikes Against Iran In Response To Ballistic Missile Attacks,” reads a headline from Forbes. What the imperial propaganda services are omitting from their headlines is the fact that Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel earlier this month were themselves a retaliatory attack against multiple Israeli assassination strikes. Israel had launched an attack on Iranian soil when it assassinated the leader of Hamas’ political wing Ismail Haniyeh in July, and then killed an Iranian military official in an assassination strike in Beirut.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement at the time making it clear that the missile strikes were in response to the assassinations of Haniyeh and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, as well as Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. This is all publicly available information. There is no nation on earth that would accept a foreign nation openly assassinating its military officials and conducting assassination strikes on its soil. Any nation would consider such aggressions an act of war, including — and especially — the United States.The western media are portraying Israel as the innocent victim who was attacked out of nowhere by Muslim barbarians because the western media are propaganda services for the western empire. Their job is to frame the US and its allies as virtuous freedom fighters defending their people against unprovoked attacks by evil villains, in order to manufacture consent for the murderous and tyrannical agendas of the US power alliance.The PR spin of these shameful press institutions is so indistinguishable from state propaganda that their messaging mirrors perfectly the position of the US government, who said in a statement following the Israeli airstrikes that they were an act of “self-defense” in retaliation for an Iranian attack.“We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.We still don’t know whether this latest round of violence will spiral into the horrifying new war we’ve all been fearing as the worst-case nightmare scenario in the fallout from Israel’s murderous behavior this past year. While Axios and its Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid report that the US expects Iran to retaliate, as of this writing it appears that the fighting could stop here as long as Israel doesn’t keep attacking.“Both Iranian media, unofficial accounts, and those of aligned militias are downplaying the attacks,” the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi said on Twitter, adding the significant caveat: “HOWEVER, only the first phase of the attack has been completed. Whether the effort to downplay the strikes can survive the night and several phases of attacks, remains to be seen.”We’ll find out soon enough, I suppose.

Israel Bombs Tehran, US Expects Iranian Response - Israel launched air strikes on the Iranian capital Friday night. While the extent of the damage is unclear, the US is expecting Iran to retaliate.Iranian media reported that some sites in the capital city of Tehran were targeted. A statement from the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the strikes. “In response to months of continuous attacks … The Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” it said. According to Axios, the US expects Iran will retaliate. “US and Israeli officials believe Iran will respond militarily,” the outlet reported, adding, “but hope it will be limited and allow the two adversaries to break the tit-for-tat cycle.”However, the White House is concerned that Iran’s response to Israel will lead to a regional war. An official speaking with the Wall Street Journalconfirmed that Tel Avi did inform Washington it was preparing to strike Tehran but did not specify how far in advance Israel warned the US of its plans.The US claimed Israel’s attack on Iran was an act of self-defense. “We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1st.” National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett continued, “We would refer you to the Israeli government for more information on their operation.”Last week, top-secret US intelligence documents provided some details of Israel’s preparations to strike Iran.Over the past year, the Middle East has moved closer to an all-out regional war as Israel has attacked several neighboring countries, conducted assassinations throughout the region, and slaughtered Palestinians.On October 1, Iran attacked military sites in Israel with nearly 200 missiles in response to Tel Aviv killing Hamas’s political leader in Tehran and assassinating Hezbollah’s leader in Beirut. Tel Aviv has been vowing retaliation for the Iranian attack throughout the month. Tehran has said itwill respond to any Israeli attack.Just before Israel attacked Iran on Friday, the US moved fighter jets from Europe to the Middle East.In the leadup to the Israeli strike on Iran, Tel Aviv requested the deployment of an American THAAD air defense system. The White House granted the request, and now 100 American soldiers are manning the system in Israel, making them a potential target for any Iranian response.

Middle East awaits Iran’s response to Israeli attack as Tehran says it is ‘entitled’ to defend itself – live - It’s just after 6.30pm in Tehran and 6pm in Tel Aviv. Here’s a roundup of the latest developments:

• Two soldiers were killed in Saturday morning’s Israeli airstrikes on Iran, according to the official news agency IRNA. The attacks, carried out in retaliation to the missile barrage launched by Iran on 1 October, were heard over several hours in Tehran, the capital, and at nearby military bases.
• The UK and US are among the nations to have warned against further escalation alongside the EU. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have all condemned the attacks.
• Iran’s foreign ministry has defended its right to “defend itself against external aggressive acts”. The ministry called the Israeli attack a violation of international law, adding that Tehran “recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security”.
• The internal debate on how Iran should respond turns on whether to treat Israel’s actions as too grave to be ignored, or to elect not to launch reprisals on the basis of advice coming from the region and from the US.
• Hezbollah has fired rockets at Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Lebanon village Aita al-Shaab, and has also launched drones against an Israeli air base south of Tel Aviv. The “aerial attack with drones” against the Tel Nof base was the first claim of its kind in one year.
• Hezbollah also fired rockets at five residential areas in northern Israel on Saturday, including the outskirts of Krayot near Haifa. Elsewhere the Israeli military has said that it killed a Hamas militant during a raid in the West Bank on Saturday.
• Israeli forces have withdrawn from a hospital complex in northern Gaza one day after storming it. Medics said at least 44 of the 70-member team at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabalia had been detained by the army, with 14 later released.

Hezbollah has condemned Israel’s attack against Iran, calling it a “dangerous escalation in the region”. The US “bears full responsibility for the massacres, tragedies and pain” caused by Israel, the group said. The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, is “deeply alarmed” by the escalation in the Middle East following attacks overnight by the Israel Defense Forces on Iran, according to a statement from his spokesperson.“All acts of escalation are condemnable and must stop,” Guterres said in the statement, adding:The secretary-general urgently reiterates his appeal to all parties to cease all military actions, including in Gaza and Lebanon, exert maximum efforts to prevent an all-out regional war and return to the path of diplomacy. Joe Biden, the US president, has said he hopes the Israeli strikes on Iranovernight were “the end”.Biden also said it appeared that Israel had only struck military targets in its attack on Iran. Iran has said three sites were hit and that “limited damage” was caused.

Israel strikes Iranian military targets, reports of 'limited' damage ease escalation fear (Reuters) - Israel bombed military sites in Iran early on Saturday, but its retaliation for an Iranian attack this month did not target the most sensitive oil and nuclear facilities and drew no immediate vows of vengeance.The risk of a wider conflagration between heavily armed Israel and Iran has convulsed a region already on fire with warfare in Gaza and Lebanon, but Tehran's initial response appeared muted.Israel's military said scores of jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, and warned its heavily armed arch-foe not to hit back.Iran said its air defences had successfully countered the attack but four soldiers were killed and some locations suffered "limited damage". A semi-official Iranian news agency said there would be a "proportional reaction" to the Israeli strikes.Tensions between Iran and Israel have grown rapidly since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, raising fears of a wider regional conflict that could drag in global powers and imperil world energy supplies.Fears of an escalation have increased since Oct. 1 when Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, killing one person in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, in response to earlier Israeli moves.Worsening conflict in Lebanon, where Israel is waging an intense campaign against Iran's main regional ally Hezbollah to stop it firing rockets into northern Israel, has raised the temperature still further.The United States and other countries responded to Israel's strikes by calling for an end to the cycle of confrontation. President Joe Biden said it appeared Israel had only struck military targets in its attack and that he hoped they were "the end".Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country has no limits when it comes to defending its interests, its territorial integrity and its people, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.An earlier statement from the Foreign Ministry said Iran was "entitled and obligated" to defend itself, but added that it "recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security", a more conciliatory statement than after previous bouts of escalation. Two regional officials briefed by Iran told Reuters that several high-level meetings were held in Tehran to determine the scope of Iran's response. One official said the damage was "very minimal" but added that several Revolutionary Guards bases in and around Tehran were also hit. Iranian news sites aired footage of passengers at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, seemingly meant to show there was little impact. Israel's military, signalling it did not expect an immediate Iranian response, said there was no change to public safety restrictions across the country.Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies, said the Israeli strike had appeared designed to give Tehran an opportunity to avoid further escalation."We see that Israel wants to close this event, to pass this message to Iran that it is closed and we don't want to escalate it," he said.Videos carried by Iranian media showed air defences continuously firing at apparently incoming projectiles in central Tehran, without saying which sites were coming under attack.Israel's military said its jets had struck missile manufacturing facilities and surface-to-air missile arrays, and safely returned home."If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond," the military said.Israel notified the U.S. before striking, but Washington was not involved in the operation, a U.S. official told Reuters. Targets did not include energy infrastructure or Iran's nuclear facilities, a U.S. official said.

Middle East expert: Strike on Netanyahu home 'a signal' from Hamas, Hezbollah -A recent drone strike targeting the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sending “a signal” that Iran-backed militant groups are not “incapacitated,” despite losingsenior leadership in recent weeks, according to a Middle East expert. Daniel Levy, the president of the U.S./Middle East Project, in an interview with NewsNation Saturday, said he did not think the intention “necessarily was an extrajudicial killing of Netanyahu,” but the drone launch was a warning that Iran’s proxies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — are still formidable. “It sends an important signal, doesn’t it,” Levy told “Morning in America” host Hena Doba on Saturday morning.“It sends a signal that any talk that Hezbollah, as this came from Lebanon, has been incapacitated, they are done for. That’s clearly, not only premature, but basically a misreading of that reality,” he added. “I think any talk that Hamas are finished is equally misguided. It doesn’t understand what is the nature of a resistance movement rooted in the objective conditions of a people living without freedom.” His comments come after a drone was launched from Lebanon toward Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea early Saturday. Neither the Israeli leader nor his wife were at home at the time and no injuries were reported, the prime minister’s office said.The attack came just days after the Israeli military killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel — which killed around 1,200 people while some 250 hostages were taken — that sparked the ongoing war in the region.The targeting of Netanyahu’s residence also came less than a week after a Hezbollah attack on an Israeli military base killed four soldiers. That attack came after an Israeli strike on Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah late last month — the militant group and Iran have vowed retaliation.The Middle East expert said the latest attack showcased that the missile defense system cannot offer “full protection” and that “you cannot have 100 percent security.”

Israeli Strike in Northern Gaza Kills at Least 87 Palestinians - At least 87 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli strike on residential buildings in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza, CNN reported on Sunday.The report cited Gaza’s Health Ministry, which said the dead included 27 bodies that had been retrieved and 60 bodies still stuck under the rubble. At least 40 people were wounded by the strike, and some are in very critical condition.Footage of the aftermath and at the Kadwan hospital, where the casualties were taken, showed that children were among the dead. An unidentified Palestinian man told CNN that the buildings were sheltering displaced families.“We call on the international community to end the war,” he said. “We beg you, we are civilians with no connection to anyone. We demand that you stop the war.”The massive strike on Beit Lahia comes as Israeli soldiers are attempting to carry out an ethnic cleansing plan, known as the “general’s plan,” in northern Gaza, which has been under a tightening siege for over two weeks and cut off from food, medicine, water, and other basic necessities.The Israeli military has ordered the evacuation of three hospitals in northern Gaza, but the staff refused to leave so they could continue to treat their patients. Gaza’s Health Ministry said Saturday that at least two patients have died at the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia due to the Israeli siege. “The death of two patients inside the Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, as a result of the hospital’s siege and the power outage and medical supplies,” the ministry said. “The occupation has imposed a severe siege on hospitals in northern Gaza since midnight last night, as the Indonesian Hospital was bombed, and Al-Awda and Kamal Adwan Hospitals were besieged at the same time.”

Israeli Ministers Call for Expulsion of Palestinians at 'Resettle Gaza' Conference - On Monday, Israeli Knesset members and senior government ministersattended a conference on re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip that was held in southern Israel near the Gaza border.The conference, titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” was organized by the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.At least ten out of the 32 Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset were set to attend the conference, including May Golan, who is in Netanyahu’s government as the minister for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women.In a speech at the rally, which drew hundreds of attendees, Golan vowed Palestinians in Gaza would face another “Nakba,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs when the modern state of Israel was formed in 1948.“We will hit them where it hurts – their land,” Golan said, according toHaaretz. “Anyone who uses their plot of land to plan another Holocaust will receive from us, with God’s help, another Nakba that they will tell their children and their grandchildren about for the next 50 years.”National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, also delivered a speech at the conference, and he received a very warm welcome. Haaretz reported that attendees broke out in chants of “Look over here, it’s our next Prime Minister” and “Death penalty for terrorists,” referring to Ben Gvir’s calls to execute Palestinian prisoners to make room in Israeli prisons.In his speech, Ben Gvir said, “We will encourage the voluntary transfer of all Gazan citizens. We will offer them the opportunity to move to other countries because that land belongs to us.”Ben Gvir and other proponents of conquering Gaza have framed their idea as “voluntary” for the Palestinians, but the Israeli military campaign has made most of Gaza uninhabitable. Palestinians in northern Gaza are currently facing Israeli evacuation orders to move to the south under the threat of death by military action or starvation.Other Israeli ministers who attended the conference include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the minister for the development of the Negev and Galilee. Daniella Weiss, a leader of Nachala, vowed that Jewish settlements would begin popping up in Gaza within a year. “In less than a year, each one of you can call me and ask me if I succeeded in fulfilling my dream,” she told reporters at the conference. “Actually, you don’t even have to call me. You will witness how Jews go to Gaza and Arabs disappear from Gaza.”Weiss also made it clear that her ambitions for Israeli expansion did not stop in Gaza or the West Bank. “The real borders of greater Israel are between the Euphrates River and the Nile.” Haaretz recently reported that the Israeli government is not seeking to revive ceasefire talks with Hamas and is now pushing for the gradual annexation of large portions of the Gaza Strip.

‘Entire population of north Gaza at risk of dying,’ warns UN’s top humanitarian official – UN News - The UN’s top humanitarian official warned on Saturday that the entire population of northern Gaza is at risk of dying, calling for an immediate stop to “blatant disregard for basic humanity” by Israeli forces.“What Israeli forces are doing in besieged north Gaza cannot be allowed to continue,” said Joyce Msuya, acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, in a statement posted on the social media platform X.Hospitals have been hit, health workers detained and first responders prevented from rescuing people trapped under the rubble, she noted.“Shelters have been emptied and burned down…families have been separated, and men and boys taken away by the truckload,” she added.According to reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since Israeli security forces renewed their offensive in northern Gaza earlier this month. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced again. “The entire population of north Gaza is at risk of dying,” Ms. Msuya warned. “Such blatant disregard for basic humanity and for the laws of war must stop.”The head of the UN World Health Organization (WHO) also voiced deep concern over the situation, highlighting the severe impact on healthcare. In a post on X, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the situation as “catastrophic”.“Intensive military operations unfolding around and within healthcare facilities and a critical shortage of medical supplies, compounded by severely limited access, are depriving people of life saving care,” he said.He also noted that the Gazan health ministry informed WHO that the siege at Kamal Adwan Hospital – one of the last minimally functioning hospitals in the north – has ended, “but it came at a heavy cost.”Following the detention of 44 male staff members, only female staff, the hospital director and one male doctor are left to care for nearly 200 patients in desperate need of medical attention.Reports that hospital facilities and medical supplies were damaged or destroyed during the siege are deplorable, Mr. Tedros said.“The whole health system in Gaza has been under attack for over a year. WHO cannot stress loudly enough that hospitals must be shielded from conflict at all times. Any attack of healthcare facilities is a violation of international humanitarian law.” He added that the only path to safeguard “what remains of Gaza’s collapsing healthcare system” is through an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.“Lives depend on it!” he stressed.

Israel Starts Bombing Banks in Lebanon - Late Sunday, the Israeli military began launching a series of airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahieh and in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, targeting the branches of a bank.The strikes began shortly after an Israeli military spokesman said the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would start hitting buildings that belong to al-Qard al-Hassan Association, a bank that Israel accused of financing Hezbollah.“The air force will launch extensive strikes on targets in the southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah-linked economic assets,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said not long before the strikes were launched.Al-Qard al-Hassan is under US sanctions over allegations related to Hezbollah, but the bank is also used by ordinary Lebanese citizens. According to Reuters, the bank has 30 branches across Lebanon, including 15 in densely populated parts of Beirut and its suburbs.Lebanon’s National News Agency reported at least 11 Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, including one that landed near Beirut International Airport, and many targeted al-Qard al-Hassan buildings. Several strikes were also reported in the Bekaa Valley.The bank issued a statement assuring its customers that it had taken “all of the necessary procedures since the beginning of the war to safeguard your deposits and valuables and can confirm that you should not worry they are safe.” Israeli strikes have been pounding Dahieh in recent days despite the US assuring the Lebanese government that the attacks on the capital city and its suburbs would ease. On Saturday, at least a dozen Israeli strikes hit Dahieh.

Israeli Strikes Killed 63 People in Lebanon on Monday - Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israeli strikes on Lebanon a day earlier killed at least 63 people and wounded 234.The Israeli strikes on Monday included an attack that hit residential buildings near the Rafik Hariri University Hospital just outside of Beirut. The strike killed at least 18 people, including four children, and wounded 60.The strike was not preceded by an evacuation order and also damaged the nearby hospital, shattering windows and solar panels located on the roof. The Israeli military insisted it didn’t target the hospital and said the attack was aimed at a “Hezbollah terror target” but offered no evidence for the claim. Israeli strikes continued to pound Lebanon on Tuesday, with four reported in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahieh. One strike near where Hezbollah was conducting a press conference leveled an 11-story apartment complex.According to AFP, an Israeli strike on the southern city of Nabatieh wounded three paramedics who were working with UN peacekeepers on a rescue mission. Israeli strikes were also reported near the southern city of Tyre. According to the latest figures from Lebanon’s Health Ministry, Israel has killed at least 2,530 in Lebanon since October 2023. An AFP tally of the ministry’s numbers found at least 1,552 have been killed since Israel dramatically escalated its airstrikes in Lebanon on September 23.

Photos: Moment 2,000lb Bomb Hits Beirut Building in Israeli Airstrike -- The path of the 2,000lb bomb was tracked as it hit the building A month after Israel escalated its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, airstrikes continued to hit Beirut on Tuesday including one 2,000lb bomb which was caught on camera hitting and destroying an apartment building. A burst of images showed the descent of the bomb before it slammed into the multistorey block in the city’s Ghobeiry neighbourhood, quickly reducing it to rubble. There was no immediate confirmation of casualties from the destroyed building, which the Israelis said housed “Hezbollah facilities”. The strike, photographed at 30 frames a second, came exactly 40 minutes after a warning was issued to residents to evacuate the area. It also came less than a day after another deadly airstrike targeted a block in the same area, which is close to the country’s largest public hospital. With the bomb crater still smoking from the airstrike the night before, on Tuesday the rescue workers had to shout over the noise of excavators and men with sledgehammers trying to clear chunks of concrete and debris. Lebanese Civil Defence Rescue workers suddenly found a hole in the cleared wreckage and shoved their heads in, like foxes at a warren. They told everyone to be quiet. A young man phoned his missing friend. He cried after hearing a phone ringing beneath the rubble. Across the crater Juma, a local resident, hollered to his friend Ali to check again on their neighbours as the search for survivors continued. “So many people live here,” he told The Times. “Lebanese, Syrians, Sudanese. The Sudanese man’s home came down on top of him.” At least 18 people were killed — including four children — and dozens more injured in Monday night’s blast according to an updated death toll on Tuesday released by the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Of the wounded, seven were in a critical condition receiving treatment at the nearby Rafik Hariri University Hospital, which had its glass entrance hall shattered by the blast. In the vicinity, four buildings were flattened by the strikes. Israel’s military denied targeting the hospital, but also repeated its argument that Hezbollah was hiding fighters, weapons and money in densely packed residential areas. Ali, right, from Idlib in Syria, looks on as rescue workers search through the debris, near what was once his home “The IDF will continue to operate in accordance with international law against the Hezbollah terrorist organisation, which systematically embeds its terrorist assets into the civilian population,” the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said. The strike, which the IDF said struck a “Hezbollah target”, took place at about 10.30pm local time on Monday — only 20 minutes after the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, warned local residents to leave with evacuation orders posted on X and Telegram. The area around the hospital, close to the main road to Beirut’s airport, was not mentioned in the evacuation order, Maan Khalil, the mayor of Ghobeiry, said. “Most of the people, they were children and they were sleeping at around 10.30pm,” he said before adding: “And that’s what led now to a lot of missing children under their houses.”

The West's Support for Israel's Genocide Is Destroying the World as We Know It - The horrifying images from Gaza last week of fire consuming a Palestinian teenager confined to his hospital bed with an intravenous drip may come to define Israel’s genocide, as completely as earlier images of human depravity have defined the world. The flames that burned alive 19-year-old Shaaban al-Dalou, along with his mother and two others, in a tent on the grounds of al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah were almost certainly unleashed by US- or German-supplied missiles, fired by Israeli pilots. Dalou was in the tent recovering from an Israeli air strike a week earlier on Deir al-Balah that had killed 26 people. He was already malnourished and immunocompromised from many months of an Israeli blockade, which has denied the entry of food and aid into Gaza. Dalou’s two sisters, father and younger brother all sustained severe burns from the fire caused by the strike. His 10-year-old brother succumbed to his wounds days later. The victims in Deir al-Balah were charred into oblivion – and with them the “rules-based international order” the West helped establish to prevent a repeat of the horrors of the Second World War. The year-long genocide in Gaza is entirely a western co-production. The US and Europe send the weapons, provide the diplomatic cover, orchestrate support from their pliant state- and billionaire-owned media, and stifle all domestic dissent.The modern era of international humanitarian law that the West proclaimed, as well as the institutions the West championed to uphold it, are going up in flames.The parties unravelling – week after week, month after month – the rules that kept in check the dangers of a third world war are not the so-called “terrorists”. It’s not Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda or the Islamic State. It’s not even Iran, Russia or China. It is the West. It is Washington and its allies. They are the arsonists.The humanitarian catastrophe Israel has engineered in Gaza has no precedent in the modern era. Israel’s genocide is not just pitiless, like so many other wars. It has been brazen, celebratory even, in its orgy of destruction. The bombs strike the very “safe zones” Israel declares. They hit hospitals, schools serving as shelters for displaced families, bakeries, mosques and churches.There is nothing secret about Israel’s long starvation of Gaza’s “human animals”: 2.3 million people, or however many of them are still alive after the enclave lost the capacity to count its dead months ago.Israel is now doing to Gaza precisely what it threatened to do long before it was able to exploit the pretext of 7 October. It is pummelling the enclave to send it “back to the Stone Age”. It is not Hamas that is being eliminated in Gaza. It is the fundamentals of humanitarian law: the principle of “distinction” between combatants and non-combatants, and the principle of “proportionality” in weighing military advantage against the endangerment of civilians. All of this is happening out in the open, concealed only by the refusal of western politicians and media to admit what everyone else can see. What Israel has made clear, supported by western capitals, is that there is no safe place, not even for those recovering in a hospital bed from Israel’s earlier atrocities. There are no “non-combatants”, no civilians. There are no rules. Everyone is a target. It is only because Israel knows it has left the international order in tatters, and that Washington is fully on board, that it dares to carry out its genocide in Gaza to the bitter end.Barely mentioned in the western establishment media has been Israel’s so-called “Generals’ Plan”: turning an area Israel has declared as “northern Gaza” into an official, industrial-scale extermination camp. The plan, published last month by a group of influential military reservists, involves giving some 400,000 Palestinians in northern Gaza a week to flee southwards. Anyone left will be starved to death or executed as a “Hamas terrorist”. Frustrated by Israel’s failure to defeat Hamas, these senior officers want to erase any last traces of protections for civilians. The question left unanswered is what happens to southern Gaza after the north has been ethnically cleansed. All the evidence so far suggests that anything done to northern Gaza will arrive soon enough in the south.