natural gas price hit 28 year low; oil exports were highest this year

US oil prices rose for the first time in three weeks on an unexpected drop in US ​crude inventories and on increasing hostilities in the Middle East…after falling 2.9% to $83.14 a barrel last week after Iran and Israel exchanged attacks but played down the likelihood of further counter-strikes, the contract price ​for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery continued to slide on the last day of trading of that cntract early Monday, as traders focused on market fundamentals, seeing little near-term risk that the Middle East conflict would widen and impact supply, then held in a narrow range in New York trading before settling down 29 cents at $82.85 a barrel​, as plentiful supplies of some of the biggest crude grades limited the conflict's impact on oil futures, while the more actively traded contract for the benchmark US crude for June delivery settled 32 cents lower at $81.90 a barrel….now quoting that June contract as the front month oil price, oil prices trended lower on global commodities markets early Tuesday amid doubts over the prospects for demand, but traded higher and retraced some of its previous losses in New York amid supportive economic data out of Europe and a fall in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest in over a week, then rallied to settle $1.46 higher at $83.36 a barrel on hopes that weak US manufacturing data ​m​ight accelerate the timing of interest rate cuts…oil prices continued to trend higher in overnight trading, following a report from the American Petroleum Institute that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories had unexpectedly dropped, but shrugged off the EIA’s report of the same news on Wednesday to settle 55 cents lower at $82.81 a barrel, as worries over conflict in the Middle East eased and business activity in the United States slowed…oil prices pulled back in early trading Thursday, after a report that US GDP was much softer than expected in the first quarter, but erased the​ir early losses to settle 76 cents higher at $83.57 a barrel on worries of supply disruptions in Middle East supplies a​fter Israel stepped up airstrikes on Gaza's Rafah and as a weaker dollar boosted commodities priced in the currency….oil prices moved higher in overseas markets early Friday on strong US demand and rising tensions in the Middle East, and later settled the US session 28 cents higher at $83.85 a barrel, as new US inflation data was broadly in line with economists' expectations…oil prices thus finished 0.9% higher on the week, while the contract for June oil, which had ended last week priced at $82.22 a barrel, ended 2.0% higher…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the fourth time in five weeks and hit a 28 year intraday low, after additions to storage came in above expectations, exacerbating the gas glut…after falling 1.0% to $1.752 per mmBTU last week on a massive glut of gas in storage, and on negative spot power and gas prices in the Southwest US, the contract price for natural gas for May delivery opened two cents higher on Monday, but move little after that, as competing fundamentals saw gas trade near $1.78 throughout the day, but moved higher near the close to settle up 3.9 cents at $1.791 per mmBTU, as an increase in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant and a drop in output outweighed lower demand forecasts for next week and a mild weather outlook…while natural gas prices opened 3 cents lower on Tuesday, they then trended higher as traders weighed the ongoing storage glut against waning production and steady LNG exports, and settled 2.1 cents higher at $1.812 per mmBTU, supported by a rebound in U.S. LNG exports and a blitz of pipeline maintenance that sent gas production estimates lower…however, natural gas prices opened five cents lower on Wednesday, as longer-term forecasts turned bearish and traders sold on rumors of export difficulties at the Freeport LNG terminal, and fell throughout the day to settle 15.9 cents lower at $1.653 per mmBTU, as operational wobbles at the Freeport LNG terminal and worries of an expected bearish government storage print on Thursday triggered another bout of selling….May natural gas then opened two cents lower on Thursday, as the week’s storage injection infused additional bearish sentiment to the market, then fluctuated within three cents of $1.63 before settling 1.5 cents lower at $1.638 per mBTU, as hefty wind generation left more gas for storage than had been expected….natural gas prices fell again Friday, with the expiring May contract touching 28 year lows below $1.50 before bouncing back to settle 2.4 cents lower at $1,614 mmBTU on its last day of trading, as the national spot price slumped 21.0 cents to 95.5 cents, its second lowest level since the 1990s, leaving the May contract price down 7.9% on the week..​.

​since i haven't seen anyone else call that 28 year low, ​​i'll include a graph of intraday natural gas prices over the past month from Barchart.com to show how i determined that...

each bar on th​e graph ​above represents one hour's price range for the  the contract price for natural gas for May delivery​​....as you can see, ​there were a few spikes lower on the last day of trading for that contract, which presumably occurred as someone had to sell but couldn't find a buyer in that thin market...remember, anyone holding a commodities contract at expiration either has to supply the commodity or take delivery of it, which most in the market are not prepared to do....if you zoom in on the interactive version of this graph, you can see that natural gas contract exchanged hands at $1.482 per mmBTU at 6PM on April 25, and at $148.9 per mmBTU during the 5 AM hour....​by using the tools available on Barchart's interactive graphs, i have examined ​intraday pricing during prior periods when natural gas prices approached $1.50 per mmBTU and couldn't find ​a​ny other time in the past 28 years where the intraday price fell below that level; the closest was a low of $1.517 on June 25th 2020; one must go all the way back to ​​August ​1995 find a price lower, when natural gas prices fell as low as $1.39​0 sometime during the month; barchart was unable to provide an exact date and time on trades that far back..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 19th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 92 billion cubic feet to 2,425 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 439 billion cubic feet, or 22.1% above the 1,986 billion cubic feet that were in storage on April 19th of last year, and 622 billion cubic feet, or 37.0% more than the five-year average of 1,711 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 19th of April over the most recent five years…the 92 billion cubic foot addition to US natural gas working storage for the cited week was more than the 88 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting, and more than the 77 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding third week of April 2023, and also more than the average 59 billion cubic foot injection into natural gas storage that has been typical for the third week of April over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 19th indicated that after another increase in our oil exports and a d​e​crease in ​the oil suppl​i​es that the EIA could not account for, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the third time in thirteen weeks and for the 9th time in the past 27 weeks, as field production and refinery throughput were little changed….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 36,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,497,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 27,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 453,000 barrels per day to a 2024 high average of 5,179,000 barrels per day, which when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 1,318,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 19th, 417,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 399,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a rounded total of 1​4,817,000 barrels per day during the April 19th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,871,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 19th, an average of 42,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 796,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending April 19th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production and from storage was 257 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [+257,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…Moreover, since 1,166,000 barrels of oil supply per day could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 909,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, and therefore useless...however, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing (as is obvious to anyone who watches oil prices), and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer….there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week’s average 796,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 910,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 113,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the twentieth SPR increase in twenty-seven weeks, following nearly continuous withdrawals over the prior 39 months… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports slipped to 6,503,000 barrels per day last week, which was 1 barrel per day more than the 6,502,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 6,000 barrels per day higher at 437,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA’s rounded national total as it did last week…US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure matches that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and is also 35.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 88.5% of their capacity while processing those 15,871,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 12th, up from their 88.1% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still a below normal operating rate for early April, as US refineries have lagged normal operating rates since arctic cold penetrated to the Gulf Coast in mid January and froze off some operations… the 15,871,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.2% more than the 15,833,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending April 21st of 2023, but 4.3% less than the 16,583,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 19th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a closer to normal 90.1%..

With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 275,000 barrels per day to 9,142,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 19th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 25,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was 8.7% less than the 10,016,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending April 21st of last year, and 6.5% less than the gasoline production of 9,781,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending April 19th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 178,000 barrels per day to 4,779,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 38,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After seven production increases in the past ten weeks, our distillates output was 2.4% more than the 4,669,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 21st of 2023, but 6.3% less than the 5,064,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 19th, 2019…

With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the tenth time in twelve weeks, decreasing by 634,000 barrels to 226,743,000 barrels during the week ending April 19th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,154,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 239,000 barrels per day to 8,423,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 71,000 barrels per day to 780,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 48,000 barrels per day to 778,000 barrels per day.…Even after thirty-four gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-three weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 2.5% above last April 21st’s gasoline inventories of 221,136,000 barrels, but were about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week’s increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for fourth time in fourteen weeks, following eight consecutive prior increases, increasing by 1,614,000 barrels to 116,582,000 barrels over the week ending April 19th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,760,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, fell by 114,000 barrels per day to 3,552,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 344,000 barrels per day to 1,134,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 11,000 barrels per day to 138,000 barrels per day.…Even with 30 inventory decreases over the past fifty-three weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 4.5% above the 111,513,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 21st of 2023, but were about 7% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the increase in our exports of crude oil, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 9th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 27th time in the past year, decreasing by 6368,000 barrels over the week, from 459,993,000 barrels on April 12th to 453,625,000 barrels on April 19th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,735,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories fell to about 3% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were still about 30% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell due to higher exports relating to the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this April 19th were still 1.6% less than the 460,914,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on April 21st of 2023, but were 9.5% more than the 414,424,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on April 22nd of 2022, while still 8.0% less than the 493,107,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on April 23rd of 2021, after refinery damage from winter storm Uri left even more crude oil remaining after 2020’s pandemic precautions had left a glut of oil unused…

This Week’s Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 26th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 19th) and this week’s (April 26th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 19th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 28th of April, 2023…

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Ohio Bill Encourages New NatGas Pipelines to Spread Across State - Marcellus Drilling News - A new bill proposed by two Republican state lawmakers in Ohio would make it easier to site and build natural gas pipelines to areas of the state where pipelines currently don’t exist. If our reading of the bill language is correct, it is aimed at stimulating new jobs by running pipelines to industrial parks and businesses that currently are not serviced by natgas. The aim is to stimulate new jobs and opportunities in the Buckeye State. Smart.

Ohio proposes new $20 million natural gas law - (WCMH) — Republican lawmakers want to ensure that Ohio has the option to tap into the state’s natural gas resources. House Bill 349, sponsored by Reps. Don Jones (R-Freeport) and Tim Barhorst (R- Fort Loramie), would create an interest loan fund to the tune of $20 million.“To incentivize [natural gas companies] to get infrastructure pipelines in the ground,” Jones said. “There’s just not enough volume to our existing lines that we have.”Jones said they are eyeing the next budget cycle for that appropriation but are working with the Department of Development in the meantime.The loan would help natural gas companies that are looking to get the rights to natural gas pipeline easements on property located within a designated “EnergizeOhio” zone. Jones said opting into the program would be up to local governments.“If the pros outweigh the cons for that area, you’ll see local entities take advantage of it,” Jones said. “It is not a mandate, just an opportunity.”He said the bill is important to ensure economic development and a good quality of life can continue, especially in rural areas. And Jones said without expanding our energy production, Ohio faces possible brownouts and blackouts down the line.“We know electricity demands are getting greater. We’ve got Intel coming in, that’s going to take a lot of energy out of the grid,” Jones said. “Twelve years ago, we were generating more power than we were using, we were selling it to other states. Today, we are buying it from other states.”The bill would also reduce property taxes for natural gas companies.“We think, frankly, that’s insulting to the Ohioans who are seeing rising property taxes of their own,” Rutschilling said. “These companies have the ability already to build these pipelines to build these gasolines. They don’t need more bailouts; they don’t need more reductions in taxes while regular people are trudging to get by.”“It does give a tax break to these companies because building pipeline is not cheap and we’ve not expanded our infrastructure,” Jones said.To use natural gas, a technique called “fracking,” is used. The state recently enacted a bill to allow fracking in state parks. But, if this new bill is enacted, could you see fracking where you live?“Will [Ohioans] see a pipeline going through their property? Absolutely. Once the pipeline is in the ground and the infrastructure is established, there will be very little disruption,” Jones said. “Anything is bad if you want to find a fault with it. And fracking is something that has come a long way in how they do the process.”

Commissioners hear pitch for natural gas - Mitch Given with The Empowerment Alliance (TEA), an organization that supports natural gas expansion, told the county commissioners Wednesday that gas is what the county should be looking toward. “We just want to, number one, get out and remind people the good news of natural gas and the shale play in Ohio and how that’s changed things as far as energy in Ohio and our ability to grow,” he said. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, “shale plays” refer to a “set of discovered, undiscovered or possible natural gas accumulations that exhibit similar geological characteristics.” These are available in the state, which makes Ohio a natural resource for extraction and production, he said, and it’s especially crucial given the need. “The problem that we get into is that many areas of Ohio still lack access to natural gas, any natural gas or adequate natural gas. I know that’s a problem here, right in Union County,” Given added. He said he talked with Eric Phillips, the county’s economic development director who also serves as board chair for the Ohio Gas Access Partnership (OGAP), about the issue and plans to speak at the chamber of commerce soon. OGAP has released information that illustrates the gas capacity limitations that it says will eventually impact Madison, Union, Pickaway and Franklin counties and that in Union County, “natural gas capacity may be fully utilized within five years at current growth rates.” Beyond that, not replacing the closing of coal plants with natural gas options further forces the state to scramble to satisfy energy demands, Given said. He added natural gas access could greatly help with that demand thanks to the U.S.’s reliable supply. According to information from TEA, the country has over 100 years of natural gas supply, with much of it coming from the eastern, southern and western mountain regions of the U.S. Ohio is the nation’s sixth largest producing state and the seventh largest in storage capacity, Given said. For Ohio gas lobbyists, the state needs to do two things to maximize the potential of natural gas and that is to expand the pipeline distribution network and increase natural gas-fired electric generation. While some gas lines exist in the county and state, what is available isn’t nearly enough, Given said. TEA identified the obstacles of high taxes on private pipeline companies and subsidies given to renewable energy policies as reasons why gas can’t expand. Solutions to those problems, Given said, would be as simple as lowering tax rates for private companies and building more natural gas-fired power plants. TEA is also working with OGAP to push House Bill 349 through the state legislature, which would make money available to counties to eventually get gas lines in place. “And that would basically create Energize Ohio Zones where there’s a revolving loan fund where counties can use that funding to purchase easements for gas lines,” Given said. “They will pay it back later so it doesn’t cause ratepayers any money.”

Did a gas lobbyist write an Ohio Senator's speech about a pipeline resolution? – When Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli took the podium to address his colleagues about a resolution declaring natural gas as “vital” to Ohio’s economy, his rhetoric matched nearly word-for-word what an oil and gas lobbyist sent him privately as a “sample script.” Rulli stood before the Ohio Senate Energy and Public Utilities Committee and, absent some minor changes and reshuffling of some paragraphs, made statements identical to what was sent to him by Mitch Given, an industry lobbyist.“Senate Resolution 121 recognizes that natural gas and its production industry are vital to Ohio’s economic future,” Rulli told the committee on Sept. 20, 2023. “It urges continued investment in natural gas infrastructure to make affordable energy available to Ohio.” That’s not too far from a “sample script” sent by Given on May 22 that same year, shortly after Rulli’s resolution was introduced, later obtained by public records request.“Natural gas and the natural gas industry are vital components of the state’s economic future. With this resolution, I urge continued investment in natural gas infrastructure to make affordable energy available to every Ohioan,” Given wrote. A coincidence? Perhaps. But Rulli continued. “Ohio is a leader in clean energy technology, and the natural gas industry leads Ohio in electric production when it compares to all the others,” Rulli said. Here’s Given: “Ohio is a leader in clean energy technology, and the natural gas industry leads Ohio in clean electricity production when compared to other energy sources such as nuclear, wind, and solar,” he wrote. One last example. Rulli said: “Natural gas saves the average Ohio family $2,500 a year in energy costs, including $1,000 from its heating and appliances provided from natural gas.” Given wrote: “It saves the average Ohio family $2,500 annually in total energy costs, including over $1,000 for home heating and appliances,” he said. After running through the talking points that were the same as those Given provided, Rulli began speaking seemingly off-the-cuff, riffing on his support for renewable sources, although he emphasized they can’t yet produce the wattage that gas can today.

Ohio O&G Commission Votes to Shut Down 3 Athens Injection Wells - Marcellus Drilling News On Friday, the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission upheld a regulatory order from the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) suspending operations of three wastewater injection wells located in Torch (Athens County), OH, owned by K&H Partners, a subsidiary of Tallgrass Energy. ODNR “temporarily” suspended the operations of four fracking waste injection wells (the three K&H wells and one other) in Athens County last September (see ODNR Temporarily Shuts Down 4 Injection Wells in Athens County). ODNR said the wells presented an “imminent danger” to health and the environment.

Encino Gets $300M from Canada Pension Plan to Fund Utica Oil Dev - Marcellus Drilling News - Encino Energy is one of the big success stories of drilling for oil in the Ohio Utica Shale. Roughly 5 ½ years ago, Encino Energy, in partnership with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), closed on buying Chesapeake Energy’s Ohio Utica assets for $2 billion (seeEncino Takes Over from Chesapeake in Ohio Utica; Big Plans). A few months after the purchase, Encino management boasted they would run a better drilling program in Ohio than did Chesapeake (see Encino Says They’ll Do it Better in the Utica than Chesapeake Did). By all accounts, Encino has lived up to its big boast. The company’s financial partner, CPP Investments, is investing another $300 million into Encino’s Utica oil drilling operation.

Encino Secures $300M Investment for Oil Exploration in Utica – Youngstown Business Journal – Encino Acquisition Partners LLC has secured a $300 million equity investment commitment from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to support the energy firm’s accelerated development of the oil play in Ohio’s Utica/Point Pleasant shale region, the company said. The parties anticipate that $150 million of the commitment will be funded by the end of April. Encino is the parent of EAP Ohio, which has offices in Carrollton. In 2018, EAP purchased most of the Utica/Point Pleasant shale assets of Chesapeake Energy Inc., an early prospector in eastern Ohio’s Utica shale. Encino describes the Utica – initially recognized as a major natural gas producer – as “one of the highest-return oil growth plays in North America,” and has recently found success with sustained oil production with horizontal wells in Columbiana County. Last year, Encino-owned horizontal wells operating in the county produced nearly 1 million barrels of oil. This production was mostly driven by a handful of wells in Knox and Hanover townships that Encino operates. According to the most recent data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ Oil and Gas Division, Columbiana County wells in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation produced 970,936 barrels of oil in 2023. All were EAP wells. During the fourth quarter, EAP wells in the county produced 241,593 barrels, down from 352,354 barrels produced during the previous quarter, records show. The energy company has emerged as the largest oil producer in Ohio – its 78 wells across the state in 2023 produced 13.8 million barrels in 2023, or approximately half of total production. Last year witnessed a dramatic leap in overall oil production statewide, according to ODNR. In 2023, horizontal wells across Ohio produced 27.7 million barrels of oil, a 41% increase from the 19.6 million barrels produced in 2022 and a nearly 70% increase from the 16.4 million barrels produced in 2021.

Fitch Rates Encino's Proposed $500MM New Senior Unsecured Notes 'B'/'RR4'; Affirms IDR -- Fitch Ratings

Investors Not Convinced re EOG's Utica Shale Drilling Program | Marcellus Drilling News Here’s something we had not previously heard: Investors (at least some investors) have “mixed or negative sentiment towards EOG Resources, particularly concerning its activities in the Utica Shale.” Some investors, according to Investing.com, are unsure that EOG’s Utica operation will perform well for the company and may be a drag on the company. An analyst with KeyBanc takes the opposite view and believes EOG’s Utica program will help the company.

16 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 15 – 21 | Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, during the week of April 8 -14, 17 new permits were issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica (see 17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 8 – 14). Last week, for the week of April 15 – 21, 16 new permits were issued. However, the composition of where the permits were issued changed significantly from the typical pattern. Only two of the permits were issued in Pennsylvania last week, both for EQT (one in Fayette County, the other in Greene County). Ohio received six new permits divided evenly, with three going to INR and the other three to EOG Resources. INR’s permits were all issued in Guernsey County and EOG’s in Harrison County. West Virginia, which typically receives the fewest new permits, took the lion’s share with eight new permits. Jaybee Oil & Gas received three permits in Tyler County. Southwestern Energy also received three permits but in Wetzel County. Tribune Resources received one new permit (Tyler County), and EQT received one permit (Marion County). Energy Companies | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Fayette County | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Harrison County | INR | Jay-Bee Oil & Gas | Marion County | Southwestern Energy | Tribune Resources | Tyler County | Wetzel County

Shell charged with covering up Pennsylvania pipeline spills - E&E News by POLITICO - Shell Pipeline Co. is facing criminal charges for allegedly covering up spills during construction of its Falcon ethane pipeline in Western Pennsylvania in 2019 and 2020.The state charges trace back to a whistleblower complaint by a pipeline inspector who said he was fired for voicing safety and environmental concerns about construction of the pipeline. The safety complaints of the inspector, Frank Chamberlin, were not part of the charges.In the 46-page criminal complaint, the state says Shell and project contractors falsified records to avoid construction shutdowns that would cost Shell as much as $40,000 a day if state environmental officials knew the truth. By contrast, the largest fine the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) could levy was $10,000 a day. That created what environmental regulators considered a “financial motive” to break the rules. “Pennsylvania’s environmental laws are in place to keep families and communities safe from harm caused by major construction projects, such as pipelines,” Democratic Attorney General Michelle Henry said in a statement. “This company chose to ignore those laws and kept quiet issues that should have been disclosed to prevent potential impacts.”

Shell Falcon Pipeline charged for violating Pennsylvania environmental law - CBS Pittsburgh - Shell is facing charges for allegedly failing to report drilling issues that caused industrial waste while constructing a pipeline in western Pennsylvania, the state attorney general's office announced on Friday. The Pennsylvania Office of Attorney General's Environmental Crimes Section filed 13 misdemeanor charges against Shell Falcon Pipeline LP for violating the state's Clean Streams Law during the construction of a 45-mile pipeline in Washington, Allegheny and Beaver counties. The attorney general's office said its investigation revealed that Shell allegedly failed to tell the Department of Environmental Protection about several issues it encountered during some drills. Prosecutors say there were times when the drill lost drilling mud -- which often contains pollutants -- underground, and in some cases, the mud came to the surface in "unintended locations." The mud is industrial waste and results in pollution wherever it ultimately ends up, which is what the attorney general's office said happened in Shell's case. According to the charging documents, Shell contractors didn't report the failures to the DEP and the company didn't install real-time data logging devices on its drilling equipment, violating its permit. Shell's website says the Falcon Ethane Pipeline System is a 97-mile common carrier ethane pipeline across southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia and eastern Ohio that supplies the recently-built cracker plant in Monaca. Groups like the Beaver County Marcellus Awareness Community say this is just the latest of problems or hazards they've seen with this pipeline. "We have a right to clean air, fresh water and the preservation of the land -- not just for ourselves but for future generations," said Bob Schmetzer with the group. Shell was charged with seven counts of unlawful conduct under the Clean Streams Law, three counts of prohibition against discharge of industrial wastes and three counts of prohibition against other pollutions. Shell issued a statement saying it's reviewing the complaint and since the beginning of the project, it has cooperated with all agencies in affected communities to make sure the pipeline was constructed "in a safe and environmentally responsible manner." "SPLC will continue its cooperation with all relevant agencies. SPLC remains committed to protecting people and the environment, as well as being a responsible neighbor in the communities where we live and work," the statement said.

Range Resources Sees Strong Natural Gas Demand, Keeps Production Steady - Range Resources Corp. kept natural gas production steady through the first quarter, even as others pulled back, and it expects to maintain the same pace through 2024. The Appalachian Basin pure play’s executives reiterated to analysts during a call to discuss first quarter earnings on Wednesday that they intend to hold output flat this year. They aim to meet strong and diversifying domestic industrial needs for natural gas as well as a looming spike in LNG demand. Range is positioned to address current needs and “to help meet future energy demand, whether that is through exports to international markets or serving our needs closer to home for further electrification of our economy related to power generation needed for artificial intelligence and data centers or increased...

Mountain Valley Pipeline Submits In-Service Request as Project ‘Nearing Completion’ - Nearly seven years after receiving federal certification to build its 303-mile, 2 million Dth/d natural gas conduit, Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP) has requested FERC authorization to place the project into service. MVP in a written request filed by its legal counsel Monday asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to approve its in-service request by May 23. Construction on the Appalachian takeaway pipeline resumed last summer after an act of Congress rescued the long-delayed project from myriad legal and regulatory setbacks. The pipeline is “now nearing completion and will be ready for service...

MVP Essentially Done, Builder Asks FERC for OK to Start Up May 23 - Marcellus Drilling News -- We never thought this day would arrive! We hoped. We prayed. But finally, it’s (almost) here. The 303-mile, 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) is almost ready to begin operation. On Monday, Equitrans Midstream filed a letter (below) with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requesting a May 23 startup date for the pipeline. MVP (Equitrans) says the pipeline will be in the ground, buried, and ready to begin on May 22 (called “mechanically complete”). Get the champagne on ice and ready…

MVP Will Boost WV Gas Producers – Coming Online in “7 to 8 Weeks”--West Virginia natural gas drillers are excited at the prospect of the soon-opening Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which will carry WV gas 303 miles from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA. During a recent meeting of the West Virginia Legislature’s Joint Standing Committee on Energy and Manufacturing, the CFO of Pillar Energy said it’s only a month or two until MVP will be online and flowing. Hallelujah! We [the O&G industry] were finally able to get this one done.

EQT Plans MVP Expansion to Serve Data Center Boom in Southeast - EQT Corp. said it would continue cutting 1 Bcf/d of production as U.S. natural gas prices remain near four-year lows, but management anticipates strong power generation demand in the coming years that has it planning an expansion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). After a seven-year battle and a congressional mandate rescued the system from legal and regulatory setbacks, MVP asked federal regulators this week for approval to start service by May 23. EQT, which announced in March it would acquire pipeline owner Equitrans Midstream Corp, said baseload power demand in the Southeast is poised to grow significantly with the data center and artificial intelligence (AI) booms. “Due to the confluence of LNG facilities pulling gas South on Transco and power demand growth in the Southeast

Antis Ask DC Circuit to Cancel FERC Time Extension for MVP Southgate - Marcellus Drilling News -- In 2018, Equitrans Midstream, the builder of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), proposed to extend MVP (when it’s done) by an extra 75 miles from the current terminus in Pittsylvania County, VA, to Alamance County, NC, to provide natural gas for heating and electric generation. The 75-mile extension is called MVP Southgate. Last year, Equitrans asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to extend Southgate’s project timeline an extra three years. FERC agreed in December (see FERC Approves MVP Southgate Request for 3-Yr Extension to Build). A group of extreme left anti-fossil fuel organizations are now challenging that time extension in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit).

EQT Disses Haynesville in Jab at Chesapeake/Southwestern Merger -- Marcellus Drilling News -- EQT Corporation, the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. (100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica), released its first quarter 2024 update yesterday. The company produced 5.87 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of natural gas in 1Q. Executives said they will continue the current curtailment (reduction) of 1 Bcf/d, in place since late February, until at least the end of May. A major focus of CEO Toby Rice’s comments is the coming demand for natgas from gas-fired power plants in the Southeastern U.S. Among the bigger pieces of news is that once EQT buys out and merges back in Equitrans (which it used to own), EQT plans to expand the Equitrans-owned Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) by another 0.5 Bcf/d.

Texas LNG Plans to Start Construction This Year After EQT Tolling Deal Expanded - EQT Corp. has expanded an agreement to ultimately give it 2 million metric tons/year (mmty) of natural gas liquefaction capacity at Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC’s proposed export plant in Brownsville, TX. EQT, the largest U.S. natural gas producer, has signed another heads of agreement with Glenfarne for 1.5 mmty of tolling capacity at Texas LNG for 20 years. It comes on top of another 15-year tolling agreement EQT signed in January for 0.5 mmty. “With this announcement with EQT and additional offtake sales to be announced soon, we will reach financial close and the start of construction in the fourth quarter this year,” said Glenfarne CEO Brendan Duval.

EQT Quadruples Deal to Send Gas to LNG Export Plant in S. Texas - Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, a major announcement went largely under the radar. EQT Corporation, currently the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., announced it will quadruple a deal with Glenfarne Energy’s Texas LNG Brownsville export facility to liquefy (now) 2.0 million tons per annum (MTPA) for EQT. This works out to be roughly 264 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of EQT’s Marcellus/Utica molecules hitching a ride to South Texas.

U.S. natural gas consumption set annual and monthly records during 2023 - In 2023, 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas was consumed in the United States, the most on record. Since 2018, U.S. natural gas consumption has increased by an average of 4% annually. Monthly natural gas consumption set new records every month from March 2023 through November 2023. U.S. natural gas consumption has risen in the electric power sector as coal-fired electric-generating capacity has declined. Last year, the largest monthly increases in natural gas consumed by the electric power sector were in July and August, despite cooler-than-normal temperatures than during those months in 2022. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, which typically increases in July and August to meet air-conditioning demand, increased by 6% in July and August 2023 compared with those months in 2022, setting monthly records of 47.5 Bcf/d in July and 47.2 Bcf/d in August. U.S. coal production units are retiring as the nation’s coal fleet ages and coal-fired generators are replaced by generators using natural gas and renewables. Although natural gas-fired power generation increased by 6% in July and August of 2023 compared with a year earlier, overall electricity growth year-on-year was flat in July at 412 billion kilowatthours (kWh) and rose just 3% in August to 410 billion kWh. The most natural gas consumed in the United States in any month of 2023 occurred in January at 106.6 Bcf/d, but consumption was 8% less than in January 2022. Warmer-than-average temperatures reduced natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to meet space-heating demand. In 2023, natural gas consumption fell 10% in the residential sector to 12.3 Bcf/d compared with 2022 and 6%, or 0.5 Bcf/d, in the commercial sector. The amount of natural gas consumed in the industrial sector remained unchanged, averaging 23.4 Bcf/d. The largest increase in natural gas consumption by a U.S. economic sector in 2023 came in the electric power sector, which increased 7% (2.2 Bcf/d) from 33.2 Bcf/d in 2022 to a record of 35.4 Bcf/d.

Baker Hughes CEO Heralds ‘The Age of Gas,’ Touts LNG as Climate Solution - The world’s energy companies are becoming more pragmatic in their approach to reaching net-zero emissions and Baker Hughes Co.’s customers plan to boost their natural gas exposure in the coming years, CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said. It is “becoming clearer just how complex the undertaking is for the transition of the world’s energy ecosystem,” Simonelli said during the first quarter conference call. The “slower-than-expected expansion of renewable energy capacity” has led to “record levels of coal demand. Consequently, we are seeing more pragmatism toward a pathway to decarbonization… “There is mounting consensus that there is no possible route to decarbonize the energy system without driving greater efficiency and significantly increasing gas weighting within the..

Toby Rice: NatGas Currently Oversupplied, But New Demand Coming - Marcellus Drilling News - Following yesterday’s conference call with analysts to discuss EQT’s first quarter performance, CEO Toby Rice appeared on CNBC to answer questions (watch the segment below). As he did during the quarterly update call, Rice once again zeroed in on new demand markets coming from gas-fired power plants in the Southeastern U.S. He also said the market is currently oversupplied with natural gas, but he sees two catalysts to help lower the excess gas in inventory: hot summer weather and gas-fired powergen. And the powergen doesn’t just come from homes running AC to keep cool. He’s talking about new data centers appearing that operate artificial intelligence and need huge new amounts of electricity to operate all those computers.

Gulf Coast LNG Construction Milestones Mount, Foreshadowing Growing U.S. Natural Gas Demand - The outlook for added feed gas demand in the coming months is beginning to firm, portending a possible tight supply balance next year. Earlier in the week, Cheniere Energy Inc. asked FERC for permission to connect the first train of its Stage 3 expansion at Corpus Christi to power and gave an update of its progress to start the commissioning progress. The company will have to file separate requests for approval before being able to introduce gas to the Texas project, but the connection of power facilities is typically a sign that systems may be ready for broader testing. In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, researchers estimated the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefied natural gas projects could help boost net...

Freeport LNG Reports Second Train 3 Outage in Two Weeks as Maintenance Continues - Freeport LNG Development LP has reported another outage of its third train, currently the only one not under extensive maintenance at its Texas terminal, days after production appeared to resume, according to pipeline data and regulatory filings. The firm told Texas environmental regulators the unit experienced a system trip on Tuesday afternoon that lasted until midday Wednesday, requiring flaring. This time, the issue was ascribed to a problem with the main cryogenic heat exchanger. “The plant operators managed the cooldown and restart of Train 3 as efficiently as possible to minimize flaring, as well,” Freeport staff said in a filing to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

Natural Gas Pipeline Nominations, Vessel Traffic Indicate Freeport LNG Production Returns - Operations at Freeport LNG could be ramping up again after more than a week of near-zero gas flows to the Texas facility drove speculation that multiple trains were offline, according to pipeline and vessel data. Feed gas nominations for the liquefied natural gas terminal started rising over the weekend and have grown to about 17% of operational pipeline capacity as of Monday, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. The consultancy also reported over the weekend that power output to the facility has risen for the first time since a reported outage of Train 3 on April 11, indicating that production has resumed. On Monday morning, a vessel controlled by Pavilion Energy PTE Ltd. was at Freeport’s Berth 1 for loading, according to Kpler data. At least three other vessels that..

Problem-Plagued Freeport LNG Finally (!) Exports Another Cargo -Marcellus Drilling News -- Have things finally turned around for the problem-plagued Freeport LNG export facility located in Quintana, Texas? We hope so. Last week, we reported gas flows to the facility had dropped to “near zero” for at least five days in a row (see Freeport LNG Still Mostly Shut Down – 5 Days in Row at < 5% of Gas). Earlier this week, we reported that Freeport had finally begun to receive feedgas again (see Texas Fines Freeport LNG – Some Feedgas Starts to Reflow). Reuters is now reporting that for the first time in 12 days, an LNG cargo tanker (partially filled with liquefied gas) has left the Freeport dock.

Emergency cleanup required for Bronx River oil spill -- An estimated 1,000 gallons of oil were leaked into the Bronx River on April 1. The cleanup took about 10 days. Con Edison leaked the oil into the river in Yonkers and, within two hours, cleanup had begun. Despite the quick response, oil was spotted as far down the river as Fordham Road. The spilled oil is classified as a non-hazardous insulating fluid used by the electrical company as a coolant. While the Bronx River Alliance is not directly involved with the cleanup, its role in protecting and restoring the Bronx River makes this incident members’ concern. Christian Murphy, ecology coordinator with the Bronx River Alliance, said the nonprofit stayed in the loop with the cleanup to coordinate between agencies and keep stakeholders up to date on progress. The oil is described as lightweight, so it typically will float along the river’s surface, but sections of turbulent flow could result in the oil mixing further into the water and sticking to rocks and other part of the riverbed. Part of the oil cleanup involved booms, which were described by Murphy as “very big pool noodles.” The booms are buoyant and stretch across the river to collect anything floating along the surface while allowing the river to continue flowing underneath. There are two types of booms, one is meant to stop debris and other surface-level contaminants from flowing down the river. The other is absorbent, and, in this case, helps absorb some of the oil, making it easier for the crews to collect oil from the surface. The oil spilled can be broken down with the help of sunlight, so the hope for the Bronx River Alliance is that any oil that gets past the cleanup area will be broken down by the sun. Murphy said last week’s heavy rain most likely pushed some of the oil out as far as the East River, into which the Bronx River empties, though any oil travelling that far would be heavily diluted by the water. Murphy said although the oil is classified as non-hazardous it doesn’t mean it can’t be harmful for water foul and other wildlife. If oil gets onto a bird’s feathers, it can affect the ability to fly or, if they then try to clean their feathers, and ingest the oil. Murphy said he can’t imagine eating the oil would be good for the birds but there is no data on what damage it can or has done. To date, Murphy said, there have been no reports of harmed wildlife from last week’s spill. The state department of environmental conservation supervised the cleanup with its dedicated emergency response team. The department anticipated needing 10 days for clean-up, which was finished as of Friday, April 12. “We were frustrated to see the situation happen but we’re happy the DEC responded quickly because we know this is an extra sensitive time for our wildlife,” Murphy said. The extra sensitive time to which Murphy referred is the oil spill’s overlap with migration. Migratory fish are starting to work their way up river around this time. The geese and ducks that inhabit the area are also having their babies during this early spring, earlier than songbirds. The Bronx River is teeming with wildlife. The ecosystem supports ducks and geese year-round. The river is also home to several migratory aquatic species including the freshwater American eel, striped bass, river herring, and sunfish. Several different species of turtles and muskrats also live in the waterway along this stretch.Other wildlife spotted throughout portions of the river include blue crabs, eastern oysters, beavers, and egrets.

Study shows the longer spilled oil lingers in freshwater, the more persistent compounds it produces - Oil is an important natural resource for many industries, but it can lead to serious environmental damage when accidentally spilled. While large oil spills are highly publicized, every year, there are many smaller-scale spills into lakes, rivers, and oceans.And, according to research published inEnergy & Fuels, the longer that oil remains in freshwater, the more chemical changes it undergoes, creating products that can persist in the environment.Approximately 600,000 gallons of oil were accidentally spilled into the environment in 2023, according to the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation, a group that monitors oil spills. This figure represents ocean spills as well as freshwater spills in rivers and lakes. Over time, this oil weathers and undergoes a variety of chemical transformations, which could make compounds that are more soluble in water and stick around longer.Weathering in salt water is reasonably well understood, but what happens to oil in freshwater is still being investigated. So, Dena McMartin and colleagues investigated the chemical changes that could happen to that oil as it sits in rivers and lakes.The team simulated a freshwater oil spill in the laboratory by combining water and river sediment collected directly from the North Saskatchewan River in Alberta, Canada, in a tank and then adding conventional crude oil obtained from a pipeline operator in Alberta.The test was carried out at around 75 degrees Fahrenheit for 56 days. Researchers concluded that as the oil weathered, more and more oxygen atoms were incorporated into some compounds, causing them to become more persistent in water. As a result, higher concentrations of the oxygen-loaded chemicals could build up, potentially increasing the impact on aquatic organisms.This increase in oxygen atoms was observed for sulfur oxide compounds, along with some other classes of compounds present in the crude oil mixture. McMartin and team members say these results emphasize the importance of rapid responses to oil spills and could help set benchmarks for longer-term remediation efforts.

Texas Oil and Gas Production Hit Record Highs | Rigzone - In a statement posted on its site recently, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) revealed that the state set records for both oil and gas production in 2023. Oil output hit 1.92 billion barrels in 2023, according to the RRC. The organization, which regulates the Texas oil and gas industry and tallies production reports submitted by operators, highlighted in its statement that this was 51 million barrels more than the previous record. Operators produced 12.01 trillion cubic feet of natural gas last year, the RRC pointed out in the statement. That surpassed the previous record by more than 13 percent, according to the RRC. “These production records are beyond impressive and reflect how Texas continues to provide reliable domestic production for the nation,” RRC Executive Director Wei Wang said in the statement. “As the state’s oil and gas regulator, the RRC is committed to our critical mission supporting Texas’ economic growth that benefits Texans. Production taxes collected from the oil and gas industry pay for our schools, highways, and the state’s Rainy Day Fund,” he added. “The commission will continue its hard work to ensure the state remains at the forefront of the energy sector,” Wang continued. Texas’ top five oil production years, including crude oil and condensate, now comprise 2023, at 1.92 billion, 2019, at 1.86 billion, 2020, at 1.77 billion, 2021, at 1.75 billion, and 2022, at 1.71 billion, the RRC highlights in its statement. The state’s top five gas production years, including gas well and casinghead gas, comprise 2023 at 12.01 trillion cubic feet, 2021, at 10.61 trillion cubic feet, 2022, at 10.51 trillion cubic feet, 2020, at 10.23 trillion cubic feet, and 2019, at 10.21 trillion cubic feet, according to the RRC. The Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association’s (TIPRO) latest state of energy report, which was released earlier this year, stated that oil production in Texas reached a record 1.99 billion barrels in 2023. It added that Texas led the country in natural gas production with a record 12.2 trillion cubic feet produced in 2023. The Texas oil and natural gas industry paid a record $26.3 billion in state and local taxes and state royalties in fiscal year 2023, according to the report, which noted that the Texas oil and natural gas industry purchased U.S. goods and services in the amount of $288 billion, “83 percent of which came from Texas businesses”. Oil and gas jobs in Texas paid an annual average wage of $124,453, 74 percent more than all average private sector jobs in the state, the report stated, adding that Texas had the highest oil and gas payroll in the country in 2023 ($59 billion).

Alaska refuge drilling could threaten polar bears with ‘lethal’ oil spills - Fossil-fuel drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) could put polar bears at risk of “lethal” oil spills, new research suggests.Former president Donald Trump passed a law to enable drilling in the refuge in 2017.This followed decades of fierce debate between Democrats and Republicans about whether to allow extractive activities in the 7.7m-hectare (19m-acre) expanse, a haven for wildlife sitting on top of an estimated 11bn barrelsof oil.On his first day in office, US president Joe Biden suspended drilling inside the ANWR pending a review. In 2023, his administration cancelled the seven oil and gas licences issued for the reserve under Trump.However, by law, the Biden administration is still required to hold a second lease sale for the ANWR by December 2024, unless Congress is able to pass legislation undoing the provision set out in Trump’s tax bill.And with Trump pledging to “drill, baby, drill” if reelected to power later this year, a Republican victory in the next US election would likely see the refuge opened up for oil and gas extraction once again.The new study, published in Biological Conservation, uses modelling to examine how a series of “worst-case scenario” oil spills could impact polar bears that use the refuge to raise young and feast on bowhead whale carcasses. The research finds that a serious oil spill inside ANWR could expose up to 38 bears to lethal levels of oil and dozens more to harmful levels.The risk of exposure to oil spills could be worsened by climate change, which is forcing polar bears to spend greater amounts of time on land in summer as sea ice melts away, the study lead author tells Carbon Brief.Republicans and Democrats have been at loggerheads about whether to drill for oil in the ANWR since the 1970s. It is located in Alaska’s north slope, directly adjacent to a vast expanse of land that is a hotbed for oil and gas activity (see chart below). This activity includes the highly controversial Willow oil project, which was given final approval by Biden in 2023.At present, there are currently around 2,000 oil and hazardous substance spills each year in Alaska, in areas where extractive activities already take place.In 1989, Alaska faced one of the worst environmental disasters in US history when the Exxon Valdez oil tanker ran aground, spilling 11m gallons of oil. Conservationists have fought to protect the ANWR, a wilderness supporting migratory caribou, wolves, all three North American bear species and hundreds of bird species. The refuge is also the home of the Indigenous Gwich’in and Iñupiat people.But Republicans have long called for the ANWR to be opened up for drilling. According to Outside Magazine, Republicans have attempted to pass laws to enable drilling inside the ANWR nearly 50 times.They were finally successful in 2017, when Trump passed a tax bill requiring oil and gas licensing rounds to be held for an area inside the ANWR.

Biden administration restricts oil and gas leasing in Alaska (AP) — The Biden administration said Friday it will restrict new oil and gas leasing on 13 million acres (5.3 million hectares) of a federal petroleum reserve in Alaska to help protect wildlife such as caribou and polar bears as the Arctic continues to warm.The decision — part of a yearslong fight over whether and how to develop the vast oil resources in the state — finalizes protections first proposed last year as the Democratic administration prepared to approve the contentious Willow oil project.The approval of Willow drew fury from environmentalists, who said the large oil project violated President Joe Biden’s pledge to combat climate change. Friday’s decision also completes an earlier plan that called for closing nearly half the reserve to oil and gas leasing.A group of Republican lawmakers, led by Alaska U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, jumped out ahead of Friday’s announcement about the new limitations in the National Petroleum-Reserve Alaska before it was publicly announced. Sullivan called it an “illegal” attack on the state’s economic lifeblood, and he predicted lawsuits.“It’s more than a one-two punch to Alaska,” Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski said, “because when you take off access to our resources, when you say you cannot drill, you cannot produce, you cannot explore, you cannot move it — this is the energy insecurity that we’re talking about.” he decision by the Interior Department doesn’t change the terms of existing leases in the reserve or affect currently authorized operations, including Willow.The Biden administration also Friday recommended the rejection of a state corporation’s application related to a proposed 210-mile (338-kilometer) road in the northwest part of the state to allow mining of critical mineral deposits, including including copper, cobalt, zinc, silver and gold. There are no mining proposals or current mines in the area, and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management determined the road-building alternatives analyzed “would significantly and irrevocably impact resources,” the agency said in a statement. A final decision on the recommendation is pending.

Report: Biden has Taken over 200 Actions Against U.S. Oil | The Ohio Star President Joe Biden and his administration have taken over 200 actions against the U.S. oil and natural gas industry as energy prices have gone up, according to a new report. “President Biden and Democrats have a plan for American energy: make it harder to produce and more expensive to purchase,” the Institute for Energy Research states in a new report. “Since Mr. Biden took office, his administration and its allies have taken over 200 actions deliberately designed to make it harder to produce energy here in America.” The analysis highlights actions Biden took on his first day in office, listing them chronologically through March of this year. The first act was canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, issuing a moratorium on all oil and natural gas leasing activities in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and revoking Trump administration executive orders that decreased regulations in order to expand domestic production. Within a week of being in office, Biden issued additional moratoriums on new oil and gas leases on public lands or in offshore waters and imposed new regulations related to permitting and leasing practices, which were tied up in the courts for years. It was not until last month that a federal court upheld the first oil and natural gas lease sale on federal lands. Last December, the Fifth Circuit also ruled that Gulf lease sales must go forward. Other actions ahead of the midterm elections include threatening to tax the oil and natural gas industry, blaming them for profiteering. Roughly six months before the general election, his administration has proposed $110 billion tax hikes on oil, natural gas and coal. In response, U.S. Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., led a coalition of 24 senators expressing “grave concern” about his “continued hostility towards American energy production.” IER published the report after the latest action taken to increase the cost of U.S. oil production and cancel plans to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR has been depleted to roughly half of what it was when he first took office.

Mexico Lagging Behind Peer Markets in Natural Gas Storage, Report Warns - Mexico’s next government must invest in natural gas storage and pipeline infrastructure in order to keep up with rising demand and meet energy transition goals, according to a new report by the Instituto Mexicano Para la Competitividad (IMCO) think tank. Mexico is the world’s eighth largest natural gas market, with demand in excess of 8 Bcf/d. However, its natural gas storage capacity is a fraction of that of similar sized markets such as Germany or Italy, researchers said. Despite the widespread global use of underground gas storage in depleted reservoirs, confined aquifers and salt caverns, Mexico only stores gas in its liquid form at the Altamira, Ensenada and Manzanillo liquefied natural gas import terminals, “which have limited capacity,” the IMCO team said in a note...

Refinery Fires Upend Mexico Plan to Curb Oil Exports - Petroleos Mexicanos is offering more cargoes of oil to its customers after fires struck two of its refineries, hampering its plan to keep crude supplies to produce fuels domestically. Pemex’s PMI trading arm told some US refiners that it may have more crude to sell than initially expected during May, according to people with knowledge of the situation. That’s a change from earlier this month, when the state oil company told customers it would sell less oil and keep more for its own refineries. Pemex didn’t immediately return messages seeking comment. Mexico’s decision to export more is sending prices of competing sour oils lower, with Mars crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico now trading at $1.70 less than benchmark Nymex West Texas Intermediate, according to Syntex Energy. That’s the widest discount since October. Prices of Southern Green Canyon reached the lowest in more than a year. Mexico’s refineries had been operating near their highest utilization rates in six years until a series of setbacks in recent days. Over the weekend, a boiler at the Salina Cruz refinery caught fire, newspaper Reforma reported, and on Friday the Minatitlan refinery had a fire and explosion, according to La Jornada. Earlier this month, Pemex also said that the new Dos Bocas refinery would reach full production by September, six months later than previously expected.

Canada Gas Firm Bags Venezuela Contracts but Stumbles on US Sanctions - LNG Energy Group Corp. said Wednesday it has won two contracts to develop hydrocarbons in Venezuela covering five producing fields. The contracts were signed just a day before the expiry of a reprieve for oil and gas activities issued by Washington to Caracas, based on a press release by LNG Energy Group announcing the awards. The Ontario, Canada-registered company said it intends to comply with the reimposition of United States sanctions against the South American country. LNG Energy Group said its wholly owned subsidiary LNGEG Growth I Corp. (LNG Venezuela) “entered into a binding agreement with PDVSA Petroleo S.A., a subsidiary of Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (‘PDVSA’), the Venezuelan national oil company, for the operation of the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and the Budare-Elotes CPPs [Productive Participation Contracts] in onshore Venezuela”. The blocks sit in the adjacent northern states of Anzoátegui and Monagas. They contain five fields with a light and medium oil production of about 3,000 barrels per day, the Latin America-focused company said. “LNG Venezuela will provide the required investment to further develop the fields and conduct operations and has 120 business days from the date of signing to satisfy the required contractual conditions precedent in order to be awarded the CPPs and initiate operations”, LNG Energy Group said. The deal gives it a 50–56 percent share of production. However, on April 17, the disclosed date of the signing of the LNG Energy Group-PDVSA agreement, the Biden administration announced it would not renew a license issued to Venezuela for oil and gas activities, accusing the Maduro regime of failure to honor a commitment to upholding fair elections. “After a careful review of the current situation in Venezuela, the United States determined Nicolas Maduro and his representatives have not fully met the commitments made under the electoral roadmap agreement, which was signed by Maduro representatives and the opposition in Barbados in October 2023”, the State Department said in a statement at the time. “Therefore, General License 44, which authorizes transactions related to oil or gas sector operations in Venezuela, will expire at 12:01 AM on April 18”. The Treasury Department issued the six-month license last October 18 allowing transactions related to, per the official license text, the “production, lifting, sale, and exportation of oil or gas from Venezuela, and provision of related goods and services; payment of invoices for goods or services related to oil or gas sector operations in Venezuela; new investment in oil or gas sector operations in Venezuela; and delivery of oil and gas from Venezuela to creditors of the Government of Venezuela, including creditors of PdVSA Entities, for the purpose of debt repayment”. The State Department said, “Despite delivering on some of the commitments made under the Barbados electoral roadmap, we are concerned that Maduro and his representatives prevented the democratic opposition from registering the candidate of their choice, harassed and intimidated political opponents, and unjustly detained numerous political actors and members of civil society”. Simultaneous with the announcement, the U.S. Treasury issued a license for affected companies to wind down their operations in Venezuela. The wind-down period runs through May. “Effective April 17, 2024, General License No. 44, dated October 18, 2023, is replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License No. 44A”, stated the official wind-down notice.

50,000 barrels of waste removed from Tobago coastline - Trinidad Guardian -- Approximately 50,000 barrels of liquid waste have been extracted from Tobago’s coastline between Scarborough and Cove in clean-up operations after the February 7 oil spill from the capsized barge there—and clean-up continues. This was confirmed by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley in Parliament on Friday. Rowley was responding to UNC MP Rudy Indarsingh’s query on the financial cost incurred by the Central Government, the Tobago House of Assembly and state enterprises for management and clean-up of the oil spill that was caused by a 200-metre capsized barge off the Cove area. Rowley said it was observed that what appeared to be liquid hydrocarbon-based product was escaping from the vessel. Soon after that notification, Heritage Petroleum Company Limited was tasked with the major responsibility of responding to the spill. He said that involved obtaining specialised oil spill equipment, machinery and approximately 200 personnel, some from Tobago and many from elsewhere in the nation, Heritage and other entities. Rowley said, “The bottom line is while the spill is now abated and apparently ended, the clean-up operation still continues, there’s still some cleaning to be done and most importantly, the extraction from the vessel of about—it appears as though—a few tens of thousands of barrels of dangerous liquid which fortunately so far has remained within the hull of the vessel.” He added, “In terms of the clean-up, approximately 50,000 barrels of liquid waste have been extracted from the coastline between Scarborough and Cove and the operation continues.” Rowley said Government was not in a position at this time to indicate what the cost of the whole operation was as it was still continuing. “Rough seas in recent weeks would have delayed the extraction of the liquid that’s within the hull and we still have staff, some local, some foreign, on standby, at the first opportunity to begin to do that extraction,” he said. “So the operation is still ongoing and when it is completed and all costs are put forward and dealt with and accepted to be paid, we’ll be in a position to give an accurate answer to this question.”

Hammerfest, Freeport Outages Send Global Natural Gas Prices Higher – Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - A gas leak at the Hammerfest LNG export terminal in Norway that occurred during maintenance has shut the plant down until Friday. The facility, which is operated by Equinor ASA was evacuated Tuesday, and the leak has since been stopped. The cause is under investigation. Hammerfest is Europe’s only large-scale export terminal. It liquefies gas from the Snohvit field in the Barents Sea. European and Asian natural gas prices edged higher Thursday amid a supply squeeze. Other Norwegian gas maintenance was limiting flows to Europe, while the broader market continues to watch the Freeport liquefied natural gas plant in the United States, where feed gas flows have again declined. NO. 2: Japan’s LNG inventories jumped by 26.5% to 2.05 million tons (Mt) on April 21

EU Energy Watchdog Says LNG Demand Could Peak This Year - The European Union’s (EU) LNG demand is likely to peak this year and buyers on the continent are likely to be over-contracted by 2030 as efforts to displace Russian natural gas over the last two years have been successful, according to the bloc’s energy watchdog. Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off gas exports to most of Europe, the EU has added over 50 billion cubic meters (1.8 Tcf) of liquefied natural gas regasification capacity to import more of the super-chilled fuel. In a report released last week, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said the new infrastructure has eased supply constraints and helped to narrow the price gap between European gas hubs and LNG spot prices. About 75% of the new LNG import capacity...

Rising spot LNG prices starting to bite some Asian buyers (Reuters) - There are early signs that the rise in the spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for delivery to Asia to a three-month high is starting to crimp demand from price-sensitive buyers such as India. The spot LNG price rose to $10.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended April 19, the most since Jan. 19, and up 26.5% from the low so far in 2024 of $8.30, reached in early March. The recent increase in the price has been driven more by supply concerns, with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East fuelling concerns that shipments from Qatar, the world's third-largest LNG exporter, may be disrupted. So far these fears have yet to be realised, but there have been increased costs for LNG shipments as vessels bound for Europe avoid the Red Sea, where Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group has launched missile strikes against several vessels, although none of these were LNG carriers. With the spot price once again above $10 per mmBtu, it has reached levels that have in the past resulted in buyers such as India, and even China, the world's top LNG importer, pulling back on purchases. This is because at these price levels imported LNG finds it hard to compete with other fuels in domestic markets. India's LNG imports for April are estimated at 1.90 million metric tons by commodity analysts Kpler, which is down from 2.26 million in March and also below the 1.98 million from April last year. LSEG data pegs India's April LNG arrivals at 1.79 million tons, a four-month low and down from 2.27 million in March and 1.88 million in April 2023. China's imports of the super-chilled fuel are estimated at 6.14 million tons in April by Kpler, down from 6.64 million in March, but above the 5.31 million in April last year. China's LNG imports in the first quarter of 2024 were strong, most likely as a result of the cheaper spot prices that prevailed for much of the buying period, but also because of the recovery of parts of the economy, especially manufacturing. The official Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a 13-month high of 51.6 in March, and has now spent the last five months in positive territory above the 50-level that separates expansion from contraction. The improving economic backdrop in China may serve to bolster demand for LNG, but the stronger price is also likely an obstacle. Much will depend on the availability of alternatives, and it's interesting to note that China's domestic output of natural gas has also been rising strongly, with production in the first quarter rising to 63.19 billion cubic metres, up 5.2% from the same period in 2023.

Japan’s LNG Consumption Expected to Decline This Year - Despite fuel restrictions at four of Jera Co. Inc.’s gas-fired power plants in Tokyo last month, Japan’s LNG imports are again expected to decline this year. Liquefied natural gas stockpiles hit their lowest point since January 2021 last month, when they fell below the five-year average of 2.14 million tons (Mt). Cargo deliveries were delayed due to poor weather conditions in Tokyo Bay. The situation, however, was not considered critical since Japan has exited the peak winter season. Japan’s LNG balance can change rapidly in a span of several weeks, Rystad Energy analyst Masa Odaka noted. “On a very cold day, the Tokyo region can consume approximately one LNG shipment worth of LNG,” or around 65,000 metric tons, for city gas, he said.

Galp Announces 10B Barrel Hydrocarbon in Place Estimate at Namibia Prospect | Rigzone - In a statement posted on its website on Sunday, Galp announced that it and its partners completed the first phase of the Mopane exploration campaign with the conclusion of the Mopane-1X well testing operations. “The flows achieved during the well test have reached the maximum allowed limits of 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, potentially positioning Mopane as an important commercial discovery,” Galp said in the statement. “In the Mopane complex alone, and before drilling additional exploration and appraisal wells, hydrocarbon in-place estimates are 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent, or higher,” it added. Galp noted in the statement that, in January, the Mopane-1X well discovered “significant oil columns containing light oil in high-quality reservoir sands at two different levels: AVO-1 and AVO-2”. The rig then moved to the Mopane-2X well, “where in March significant light oil columns were discovered in high-quality reservoir sands across exploration and appraisal targets: AVO-3, AVO-1, and a deeper target,” Galp highlighted. “In particular, the Mopane-2X well found AVO-1 to be in the same pressure regime as in the Mopane-1X discovery well, around 8km to the east, confirming its lateral extension,” it added. In its statement, Galp said all acquired data from the current Mopane drilling campaign will be analyzed and integrated into an updated reservoir model.

China's Imports of Russian Oil Near Record High --Russia remained China's top oil supplier in March, data showed on Saturday, as refiners snapped up stranded Sokol shipments. China's imports from Russia, including supplies via pipelines and sea-borne shipments, jumped 12.5% on the year to 10.81 million metric tons, or 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. That was quite close to the previous monthly record of 2.56 million bpd in June 2023. Seven Russian tankers under sanctions offloaded Sokol cargoes in Chinese ports in March, as Russia worked to clear a glut of stranded supply in the wake of tightened U.S. sanctions. More than 10 million barrels of the oil supplied by Sakhalin-1, a unit of Rosneft, had been floating in storage over the past three months amid payment difficulties and sanctions on shipping firms and vessels carrying the crude. Stockpiling of Russian crude for storage in strategic reserves by state-owned CNOOC also boosted imports from Russia. Data from consultancy Kpler forecast sea-borne shipments from Russia hitting a record high of 1.82 million bpd, including 440,000 bpd of Sokol and 967,000 bpd of ESPO. Russia was China's top supplier throughout 2023, shipping 2.14 million bpd despite Western sanctions and a price cap following the Kremlin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In coordination with other OPEC+ members, Russia opted to roll forward a voluntary reduction in crude oil output of 300,000 bpd into the first quarter of the year to support energy prices. Imports from Saudi Arabia, previously China's largest supplier, totalled 6.3 million tons in March, or 1.48 million bpd, down 29.3% on the same period last year. Riyadh has said it would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd through the end of June, leaving its output at around 9 million bpd. The world's top exporter kept the March official selling price of its flagship Arab Light to Asia at $1.50 over the Oman/Dubai average as the Kingdom sought to secure market share. January-March imports from Malaysia, a trans-shipment point for sanctioned cargoes from Iran and Venezuela, soared 39.2% on the year to 13.7 million tons, or 3.23 million bpd. The data showed 375,296 tons of imports from Venezuela, following a rare shipment of 352,455 tons of Venezuelan crude in February amid a temporary relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Caracas. Sanctions were re-imposed from Thursday after the U.S. said President Nicolas Maduro had failed to meet his election commitments. Customs recorded no imports from Iran. Below lists imports from main suppliers with volumes in million metric tons and year-on-year percentage change calculations by Reuters:

Russia seeks expansion of economic ties with Iraq, Kurdistan Region: Consul - Russia is open to expanding its economic activities in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, particularly in the oil and energy sectors, its consul general told Rudaw on Wednesday, with several Russian oil and gas companies holding large stakes in Baghdad and Erbil’s fields. “Russian-Iraqi relations are expansive, strong, and close in several sectors, including in the field of energy in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region,” Russian Consul General to Erbil Maxim Rubin told Rudaw’s Mushtaq Ramadhan on the sidelines of the Sulaimani Forum. “We are open to expanding Russian-Iraqi cooperation in all fields, and are ready to expand our relations and cooperation in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region,” he said. Iraq and the Kurdistan Region share close economic ties with Russia as a number of Russian oil companies operate in both the Region and in oilfields in southern Iraq. The two countries first established diplomatic relations in 1944. Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, and Rosneft are some of the major Russian oil and gas companies operating in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. In December, Lukoil acquired an additional 20 percent of the massive Eridu oil field in southern Iraq’s Dhi Qar province after a Japanese company sold half its stake, bringing Lukoil’s stake in the field to 80 percent.

Kurdish Media Allege OPEC Request for Resumption of Oil Exports to Turkey --Just a week after the Iraqi federal government announced it was repairing its own oil pipeline to Turkey, which would override a Kurdish oil pipeline that has been offline amidst a three-way diplomatic dispute between Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara, Iraqi media report that OPEC is urging Baghdad to resume Kurdish oil exports to Turkey. According to Kurdistan24 news agency, citing an unnamed source in the Iraqi Federal Oil Ministry, OPEC has requested that Iraqi Federal Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani approve oil exports from Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. In what the news agency called a “formal appeal to the Iraqi Oil Minister”, OPEC has allegedly requested that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) be allowed to export 200,000 barrels of oil per day via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The news agency also claims that the request has now been forwarded to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The 1.4-million-bpd-capacity Iraq-Turkey pipeline has been offline since March last year, but was pumping around 450,000 bpd just prior to its closure. Baghdad’s maneuvering here is intended to lead to the revocation of the KRG’s semi-autonomous status, and international oil companies are now being pressured to sign new contracts with Bagdad for their oil and gas operations on Kurdish territory. In the meantime, Iraqi officials say the repaired pipelinethat will replace the shut-down Kurdish pipeline is set to be operational by the end of this month, signaling a victory for Baghdad and the potential end of Kurdish semi-autonomy, which could prompt additional unrest in the region.

May WTI Slips at Expiry, RBOB Falls to 6-Week Low Intraday - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Monday's session mixed, with the May West Texas Intermediate contract expiring at a $0.95 bbl premium to the June contract at $82.85 bbl. ICE June Brent futures eased $0.29 with a $87 bbl settlement, reversing overnight losses after testing support at the $85.61 50-day moving average. Brent futures dropped back from a $92.18 bbl six-month high reached earlier in April bolstered by an expanding geopolitical risk premium in the international crude benchmark as Israel and Iran appeared poised for a direct military conflict. Tensions have been dialed back by both countries' leadership, easing the risk premium. U.S. commercial crude inventory at a 459.993 million bbl 10-month high as of April 12 moved above the three-year average for the first time in 2024, data from the Energy Information Administration shows. Commercial stock levels increased 14.951 million bbl or 3.4% during the four-week period ended April 12, easing supply tightness. The U.S. dollar softened, settling at a 105.913 three-day low in index trading against a basket of currencies, but holds near a 106.325 6-1/2-month intrasession high traded on April 16. The strength in the U.S. dollar, historically a drag for crude oil prices, is realized as expectations for interest rate cuts are pushed into the future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, most investors do not expect a cut in the federal funds rate until the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, skipping past meetings in May, June, and July. And only a thin majority, 51.3%, expect two 25-basis point reductions in the key overnight bank borrowing rate, now in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range, in 2024. An unexpectedly strong U.S. economy and resilient labor market have stoked inflation pressure, which is seen holding borrowing costs higher for longer. The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday will release its advanced reading for first quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth, with expectations eyeing a 2.3% annualized expansion rate. While a slowdown from the 3.4% growth rate registered in the fourth quarter of 2023, the anticipated growth rate defies expectations in 2023 that the U.S. economy would slow down at a quicker pace this year due to higher interest rates. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDPNow indicator expects a first quarter annualized GDP growth rate of 2.9%. Economic growth lends support for diesel fuel demand, with the May ULSD futures contract settling Monday's session up $0.0191 at $2.5604 gallon, albeit reversing higher from a $2.5039 19-week low on the spot continuous chart. High interest rates have slowed home buying, which cuts into construction jobs, manufacturing activity has remained subdued, while freight hauling is stuck in a prolonged recession. NYMEX May RBOB futures settled lower for a fourth consecutive session Monday, down $0.0249 at $2.6854 gallon, paring an intrasession decline to a $2.6649 gallon nearly six-week low on the spot continuous chart. The most recent Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released Friday afternoon shows speculators and money managers have reduced sizable long positions in the gasoline contract halfway through April. Weak demand compared with a year ago, down 168,000 bpd or 1.9% at 8.806 million bpd during the four weeks that ended April 12 according to EIA data, and a break below trendline support sustained the selling pressure on Monday.

Crude Oil Prices Falls Over Weak Demand Expectations - BizWatchNigeria.Ng -Amid doubts over the prospects for demand, crude oil prices trended lower on the global commodities market. Despite fresh US sanctions against Venezuela, the market price of crude oil is retreating. The closing price of the previous trading session, which was $87.29 a barrel, was 1.65% lower for the international benchmark Brent oil, which was trading at $85.85 per barrel. At the same moment, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $80.75 a barrel, down 1.79% from the previous session’s closing price of $82.22 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose sharply on Friday as reports surfaced that Israel had launched a counterattack on Iran. The Brent crude price approached the $91 threshold amid concerns that a wider conflict would disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East, home to the majority of the world’s oil reserves. However, later on Friday, crude prices clawed back most of the gains after both sides downplayed the severity of the attack. As concerns of a wider conflict eased despite unprecedented direct strikes by both sides, the oil market refocused on market fundamentals on the first day of the new week. Demand concerns stemming from uncertainties regarding the global economy continue to weigh on prices. Weak demand worries were also sparked by the rise in crude oil stocks in the US, the largest oil consumer in the world. While uncertainty regarding the timing of the Fed’s interest rate cuts continues, the dollar index reached 106. The rise in the value of the US dollar makes oil expensive for buyers using other currencies, leading to reduced purchases and downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, renewed US sanctions on Venezuela, which has an export capacity of around 600,000 barrels per day, fueled supply concerns. The OPEC+ group could influence oil prices by returning some of the 2 million bpd supply it is currently keeping off the market. The tensions in the Middle East have highlighted the ebb and flow of the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices so far this month. Analysts believe that oil currently includes between $5 and $10 per barrel in premium to reflect a risk of escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. The past week has illustrated how traders perceive geopolitical risk. Just as Brent Crude prices had eased to the upper $80s after the Iranian drone attack against Israel in the April 13-14 weekend, oil spiked by 3% early on April 19 amid reports of an Israeli missile hit in Iran.

Oil rises in early Asian trading, Middle East tensions remain in focus -Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trading on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess the risk from geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.39 a barrel by 0033 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.30 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell 29 cents in the previous session on signs that a recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran had little near-term impact on oil supplies from the region. However, analysts noted a multitude of risks remain in the oil market. ANZ analysts highlighted U.S. approval of new sanctions on Iran's oil sector that broaden current sanctions to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude. Barclays analysts said on Monday that risks to their $90 a barrel forecast for this year's Brent prices remain skewed higher. "The imminent threat of geopolitical risk spilling over into oil market fundamentals has largely faded, but the overall trend in that risk since October last year is concerning," the Barclays analysts said in a note. U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have increased last week while refined product stockpiles likely fell, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts.

Supportive Economic Data Out of Europe and a Fall in the U.S. Dollar Index The oil market on Tuesday traded higher and retraced some of its previous losses amid some supportive economic data out of Europe and a fall in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest in over a week. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading as it rallied to $83.01. The market was well supported by data showing that overall business activity in the euro zone expanded at its fastest pace in nearly a year in April. The market also weighed the potential fallout from any new U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports, targeting ships, ports and refineries that handle Iranian oil. The market erased some of its early gains and posted a low of $80.88. However, the crude market bounced off its low and retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $86.97 to a low of $80.70 as it rallied to a high of $83.43 ahead of the close. The June WTI, on its first session as the spot contract, settled up $1.46 at $83.36 and the June Brent contract settled up $1.42 at $88.42. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.88 cents at $2.5792 and the RB market settling up 3.99 cents at $2.7253. Goldman Sachs said it expects further moderation in the still elevated geopolitical risk premium of $5-10/barrel for crude oil in the coming months and maintained its range-bound view, with a $90/barrel ceiling on Brent. According to a report by Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV, oil demand in China's road sector is expected to decrease by 94% by 2050, a faster transition than that predicted by China's oil majors, which forecast gasoline demand halving by 2045. DNV said total oil consumption will halve by 2050 from its 2027 peak, with 84% of that still being met by imports. However, oil's share of aviation energy demand will fall from 99.6% in 2022 to 59% in 2050 as the use of alternatives such as bioenergy and e-fuels takes hold. Sources stated that Venezuela's PDVSA plans to increase digital currency usage in its crude and fuel exports as the U.S. reimposes oil sanctions on the country. Data provider Enverus said U.S. oil and gas deals reached a record $51 billion in the first quarter, a continuation of last year's pace centered in the top U.S. shale field. Energy companies have rushed to expand oil and gas drilling inventories, especially in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where producer break-even costs are about $64/barrel. Enversus calculates that the number of deals increased to 27 last quarter, compared with 20 in the same period a year ago and 60% of first quarter transactions by value were in the Permian. A group of 22 states led by California and five cities are backing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's new tailpipe emissions rules after 25 Republican-led states sued last week. The lawsuit filed on Thursday challenges the 2027-2032 model year EPA vehicle emissions rules that aim to cut tailpipe emissions for cars and light trucks by nearly 50% over 2026 levels in 2032. California, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states sought to intervene in the lawsuit saying they could be harmed if the EPA could not require future reductions in harmful vehicle emissions. Early Market Call - as of 8:40 AM EDT: WTI - June $83.12, down 24 cents RBOB - May $2.7227, down 26 points HO - May $2.5645, down 1.47 cents

U.S. oil rises nearly 2% to top $83 a barrel as slowing manufacturing raises interest rate cut hopes - U.S. crude oil moved nearly 2% higher Tuesday to top $83 a barrel on optimism that weak manufacturing data could accelerate interest rate cuts.U.S. manufacturing activity hit a four month low of 49.9 in April, according to the S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI. A reading below 50 indicates that activity is contracting.Oil prices turned higher on the data as traders see slowing manufacturing activity as support for the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. Lower borrowing costs typically stimulate the economy and thereby crude demand. Here are Tuesday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate June contract: $83.36 a barrel, up $1.46, or 1.78%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is up more than 16%.
• Brent June contract: $88.42 a barrel, up $1.42, or 1.63%. Year to date, the global benchmark is up nearly 15%.
• RBOB Gasoline May contract: $2.72 a gallon, up 1.49%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up more than 29%.
• Natural Gas May contract: $1.81 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.71%. Year to date, natural gas is down about 28%.

The move higher comes after WTI hit a session low of $80.89 a barrel earlier in the morning, the lowest level since late March. U.S. oil prices also briefly dipped below the 50-day moving average of $81.22 a barrel for the first time since early February.U.S. oil prices are still below this year's high of $87.62, when traders bid up prices on fears of a war between Iran and Israel. Those concerns have largely dissipated as Iran and Israel have signaled they are not interested in a wider war after trading tit-for-tat strikes earlier this month.The oil market has also largely brushed off the threat of additional sanctions against Iranian oil.The House of Representatives passed legislation over the weekend that would broaden sanctions against Iran's oil exports to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process crude from the Islamic Republic. The Senate could vote on the bill as soon as this week.Under terms of the legislation, President Joe Biden would implement sanctions within 180 days of the bill's passage, but has the authority to waive penalties if he determines it is in the national security interests of the U.S."This bill significantly increases sanctions on Iran, it increases the enforcement mechanisms," Helima Croft, commodities strategist with RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday.The White House will face a "tough choice" this summer on whether to impose the sanctions or issue waivers due to concerns about a tight oil market, Croft said. The sanctions, if fully implemented, could contribute to higher gas prices."Biden's not going to pull the trigger ahead of the election because he can't afford to have gasoline prices go up before for the election," Flynn said. "It's kind of a farce."The Biden administration is very concerned about high oil prices ahead of the 2024 election, said Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects."It's a U.S. election year, and the U.S. is going to do absolutely anything in its power to make sure prices don't go up," Sen told CNBC's "Crude Realities" on Tuesday.

U.S. Crude Oil And Gasoline Inventories Drop Off - Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 3.23 million barrels for the week ending April 19, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had estimated a 1.8 million barrel build for crude oil. For the week prior, the API reported a 4.09 million barrel build in crude inventories. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.8 million barrels as of April 19. Inventories are now at 365.7 million barrels—the highest point since last April. Oil prices were trading up ahead of the API data release on Tuesday, buoyed in part by the falling U.S. dollar index as business activity slumped to a multi-month low. At 4:12 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up 1.60% on the day at $88.39, but $1.60 per barrel lower than this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading up on the day by 1.76% at $83.34, but down roughly $2 per barrel from this time last week. Gasoline inventories also fell this week, by 595,000 barrels, after falling by 2.51 million barrels in the week prior. As of last week, gasoline inventories were about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose this week by 724,000 barrels, after last week’s 427,000-barrel dropoff. Distillates were 7% below the five-year average for the week ending April 12, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventories saw a draw this week, according to API data, falling by 898,000 barrels after falling by 169,000 barrels in the previous week.

WTI, ULSD End Lower as Weak Demand Undercuts Crude Draw- The nearby West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and ULSD futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday's session lower as an unexpected and large drawdown from U.S. commercial crude inventory was countered by weak domestic demand for finished fuels. Midmorning Wednesday, Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 6.368 million barrel (bbl) decline in commercial crude stocks to 453.625 million bbl during the week ended April 19 -- the first drawdown since the second week of March. The stock draw was realized because of a surge in U.S. crude exports, which jumped 453,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a 5.179 million bpd 2024 high. Fuel demand, however, was underwhelming, with gasoline supplied to the U.S. market down 239,000 bpd last week while distillate fuel pushed to the primary market fell 114,000 bpd. Domestic demand has trailed the 2023 pace so far this year, but the decline accelerated in April. During the four weeks that ended April 19, EIA shows gasoline supplied to the U.S. market 332,000 bpd or 3.7% below the comparable period in 2023 and distillate fuel supply down 449,000 bpd or 11.6%. A slump in U.S. manufacturing activity highlighted by preliminary PMI data from S&P on Tuesday showing no growth in April offers evidence for weak demand for diesel fuel. So does a prolonged recession in freight shipments now two years old. American Trucking Associations' chief economist Bob Costello on Wednesday said, "Tonnage in March suggests that truck freight volumes remain lackluster, and it is clear the truck freight recession continued through the first quarter. In the first three months of 2024, ATA's tonnage index contracted 0.8% from the previous quarter and declined 2.4% from a year earlier, highlighting ongoing challenges the industry is navigating." Wednesday morning, the U.S. Census Bureau reported new orders for manufactured durable goods were better than expected in March with a 2.6% monthly gain, but shipments of durable goods declined for the third out of the past four months, aligning with weak freight movement. Might the long-awaited end to the freight recession be nearing? NYMEX May ULSD futures settled $0.0293 lower at $2.5499 gallon, and June WTI futures fell $0.55 with a $82.81 bbl settlement. ICE June Brent crude eased $0.40 with a $88.02 bbl settlement, turned lower after testing resistance at the $88.85 bbl 20-day moving average.

Oil settles lower as U.S. business activity cools, concerns over Middle East ease (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday as worries over conflict in the Middle East eased and business activity in the United States slowed, although a fall in U.S. crude oil inventories put a floor on those losses. Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.45%, to settle at $88.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 55 cents, or 0.66%, to $82.81. That reversed some of Brent's gains earlier in the week, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar. "It appears the fundamentals that we trade with are leaning towards a little settling down in the Middle East," said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics. Perceived de-escalation between Iran and Israel could remove another $5-10 a barrel in coming months, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. These analysts estimated a $90 per barrel ceiling on Brent. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels in the week ended April 19, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 825,000-barrel rise.[EIA/s] The large crude draw was the result of very high crude exports, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. But it could be a one-off, he said, as preliminary tanker tracking data this week shows lower exports. U.S. business activity cooled in April to a four-month low, with S&P Global saying on Tuesday that its flash Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 this month from 52.1 in March. The U.S. central bank is expected to start lowering rates this year, which could bolster economic growth and, in turn, stimulate demand for oil. Elsewhere, Germany's business morale improved more than expected in April, according to a survey on Wednesday, boosting hopes that the worst may be over for Europe's biggest economy. Even as concerns about geopolitical tension in the Middle East eased, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to rage with some of the heaviest shelling in weeks on Tuesday. Sources on Wednesday said Israel was preparing to evacuate Rafah ahead of a promised assault on the city.

Oil Futures Up, Shake Off Weakness Spurred by GDP Surprise -- Nearest delivered oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange shrugged off early weakness spurred by a surprise reading for U.S. economic growth to end Thursday's session higher. Brent widened its premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to a $5.44 per barrel (bbl) three-month high.June Brent pushed above the $88.99 20-day moving average with a $89.01 bbl settlement, up $0.99, with three trading days remaining before expiration. The international crude benchmark gained on the U.S. benchmark as sluggish demand for finished fuels in the United States aligned with slower-than-expected economic growth while geopolitical tensions underpin Brent.June WTI futures settled $0.76 higher at $83.57 bbl, gaining in market-on-close trade. The U.S. dollar weakened 0.2% to a 105.451 two-week low in index trading, pressured by a steep slowdown in first-quarter U.S. economic growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Thursday morning reported a 1.6% annualized growth rate by the U.S. economy for the first three months of 2024, well below expectations for a 2.3% expansion rate, and a steep fall-off from growth of 3.4% during the fourth quarter 2023.Compounding the economic slowdown, costs grew, with BEA reporting the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 3.4% in the first quarter from a 1.8% gain during the final three months of 2023. Consumer spending on services helped drive GDP higher in the first quarter, which offset a decline in consumer spending on goods. Wage gains by state and local government employees also boosted first-quarter GDP, adding inflationary pressure.Investors now expect one 25-basis point rate cut in 2024, down from two on Wednesday, with a 59.2% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds rate in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The overnight bank borrowing rate is currently in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range.Weak distillate fuel demand in 2024, trailing the year-ago pace by 164,000 barrels per day or 4.3% through April 19, according to data from the Energy Information Administration foreshadowed the slowdown in U.S. economic growth. A prolonged recession in freight shipments and weak industrial output have weighed on both the U.S. economy and distillate fuel supplied to the U.S. market. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said manufacturing activity fell again in April, which follows a similar finding by the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday.May ULSD futures, which moved into a contango market structure in mid-April, settled flat, up five points at $2.5504 per gallon. The ULSD crack spread ended Thursday's session at an 11-month low.May RBOB futures gained $0.0239 with a $ 2.7582-gallon settlement, ending above the $2.7542 20-day moving average, with Memorial Day weekend four weeks away.

Concerns Over Fuel Demand in the U.S. Against Worries of Supply Disruptions - The crude market on Thursday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed slower economic growth in the first quarter, which added to concerns over fuel demand in the U.S., against worries of supply disruptions as Israel may start an assault on Gaza’s city of Rafah. The oil market breached its previous low of $82.44 and traded to a low of $81.99 by mid-morning as the market refocused on Wednesday’s EIA report. The report showed gasoline stocks falling less than expected and distillates stocks building against expectations of a draw, reflecting signs of slowing demand. The market was further pressured by news that U.S. GDP in the first quarter slowed more than expected. The crude market later bounced off its low and breached its Wednesday’s high of $83.71 as it rallied to a high of $83.73 on the close. The June WTI contract settled up 76 cents at $83.57 and continued to trade higher in the post settlement period, posting a high of $83.76. The June Brent contract settled up 99 cents at $89.01. Meanwhile, the product market ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5 points at $2.5504 and the RB market settling up 2.39 cents at $2.7582.The United States and 17 other countries on Thursday issued an appeal for Hamas to release hostages as a pathway to end the crisis in Gaza. According to a senior U.S. official, a statement released by the countries will say “We call for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza now for over 200 days.” The signatories were the leaders of the U.S., Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Thailand and Britain. The U.S. official said there were some indications that there might be an avenue for an agreement on the hostage crisis but that he was not totally confident. Meanwhile, Hamas reiterated its demand Israel end the Gaza war as part of any deal to release hostages held there, with Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official telling Reuters that U.S. pressure on Hamas “has no value”.The Russian government said gasoline and diesel fuel production in Russia stabilized in April. According to the report, fuel supplies to the domestic market exceeded last year’s volumes in April.Alexander Dyukov, the head of Gazprom Neft, said that there was no need to lift restrictions on gasoline exports from the country and there are no shortages of fuel on the domestic market. He also said the company's operations have not been affected by floods in the Orenburg region in the Urals Mountains.U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, but an acceleration in inflation suggested that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP that GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter. Economists had forecast GDP rising at a 2.4% rate. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased at a 3.7% rate. That was the fastest increase in that measure in nearly a year and followed a 2% pace of increase in the fourth quarter.

Oil settles higher on supply concerns in the Mideast, economic woes subdue gains (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday, garnering support from tensions in the Middle East, but a strong dollar and U.S. inflation data quashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon, giving prices a ceiling. Brent crude futures settled up 49 cents, or 0.55%, to $89.50 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 28 cents, or 0.34%, to $83.85 a barrel. Supply concerns supported prices as tensions continue in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, said any rulings by the International Criminal Court, which is investigating Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and Israel's military assault on Gaza, would not affect Israel's actions but would "set a dangerous precedent." As tensions escalate, Israel's military said on Friday that its air force struck in Lebanon's West Beqaa District and killed a militant who advanced attacks against Israel. Israel stepped up air strikes on Rafah on Thursday after saying it would evacuate civilians from city in southern Gaza and launch an all-out assault despite allies' warnings that doing so could cause mass casualties. "Israel is not afraid to come and support themselves on their own if they have to, people are watching to see what happens between Netanyahu and Biden," said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics. "The geopolitical element is not over, the proxy battles going on right now will continue," and this is still providing support and helping to offset the negative pressure from the inflationary data, Snyder added. Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressures capped gains after data released on Friday showed growing inflation. In the 12 months through March, U.S. inflation rose 2.7% after an advance of 2.5% in February. Last month's increase was broadly in line with economists' expectations. The Fed has a 2% inflation target. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. "The economic data this morning was enough for market participants to conclude that the Fed is not going to be forthcoming with interest rate cuts any time soon," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. "Geopolitical jitters in the market are what is keeping us aloft. Those two competing forces should keep us in check," Kilduff added. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday that U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter could be revised higher, and inflation will ease after a clutch of "peculiar" factors held the economy to its weakest showing in nearly two years. U.S. economic growth was likely stronger than suggested by the weaker quarterly data, Yellen said. Oil prices have flip-flopped since Yellen's comments and the release of the inflation data on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar soared to a fresh 34-year high against the yen on Friday, bolstered in part by the U.S. inflation data. "Dollar strength is helping to exert negative pressure today," Kilduff said. Elsewhere, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in an op-ed article that the end of oil is not in sight, as the pace of energy demand growth means that alternatives cannot replace it at the needed scale, and the focus should be on cutting emissions not oil use.

Oil Posts Weekly Gain as Market Tightens Oil rose this week amid signs of a tightening physical market while traders continue to assess lingering Middle East risks. West Texas Intermediate edged higher to settle just below $84 a barrel, concluding a weekly advance of 2% for the June contract. A report earlier this week showed US crude stockpiles dropping to the lowest since January, while gauges such as the WTI cash roll and key timespreads are signaling supply constraints. The roll, which reflects supply-demand balances at Cushing, Oklahoma, climbed to the highest in two years. Meanwhile, WTI’s prompt spread — the gap between its two nearest contracts — has strengthened to 72 cents in backwardation, up from 55 cents last week. Crude’s gains are being restrained by US economic data showing inflation rose in March, reinforcing concerns of persistent price pressures. The data followed weaker US economic growth and traders paring back expectations for the timing of a Fed rate reduction. Crude has advanced this year, supported by supply cuts from OPEC+ and political risks in the Middle East, including heightened tensions between Israel and Iran that helped lift Brent above $90 a barrel earlier this month. Israel is stepping up preparations for a potential all-out war with Hezbollah. Despite the strength in crude futures, there are concerns in other corners of the oil markets. A sharp drop in returns from making diesel is prompting some Asian refiners to make modest reductions in operating rates, which could crimp regional oil imports. Analysts have meanwhile forecast a decline in margins for making the fuel in Europe. WTI for June delivery rose 0.3% to settle at $83.85 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement rose 0.6% to settle at $89.50 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia Needs Oil Price Near $100, IMF Says - -- Saudi Arabia will need a higher oil price than previously thought this year as the OPEC+ leader spearheads the group’s production cuts, according to the International Monetary Fund. Riyadh will require an average oil price of $96.20 a barrel to balance its budget, assuming it holds crude output steady near 9.3 million barrels a day this year, the Washington-based Fund said in its regional economic outlook on Thursday. That’s up 21% from a previous forecast in October, when the IMF predicted that the kingdom would pump 10 million barrels a day in 2024. It’s also higher than the current price for international benchmark Brent futures, which are trading near $89 a barrel. The Saudis have led the OPEC+ alliance in curbing output to stave off a global crude surplus and shore up prices, deepening cutbacks by 1 million barrels a day since last July. The measures have helped buoy the market, but as Riyadh sacrifices sales volumes it need a higher price to compensate. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will gather on June 1 to consider whether to continue to supply curbs into the second half of the year. With conflict in the Middle East bolstering the market, some analysts expect that OPEC+ may start to unwind the curbs. The kingdom needs considerable revenue to fund the ambitious transformation plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which involve spending hundreds of billions of dollars on everything from futuristic cities like Neom to top-flight sports players. The government has resorted to debt as a way of bridging some gaps, selling $12 billion of bonds in January, equivalent to more than half the fiscal deficit projected for this year. Neom is also planning a debut riyal bond sale later this year as it looks for more sources of funding, Bloomberg reported this week. The kingdom’s quest for foreign direct investment has so far under-delivered. The government wants to hit $100 billion of FDI annually by 2030, a haul roughly three times bigger than it has ever achieved and about 50% more than what India gets today. Kazakhstan and Iran, fellow OPEC+ members, also saw their price needs climb, according to the IMF’s calculations. But the break-evens for several others in the group — which haven’t made such deep output sacrifices as the Saudis — remained broadly stable or even decreased. Assuming the kingdom relaxes the supply cuts and revives production to 10.3 million barrels a day next year, its break-even price requirement should subside to $84.70 a barrel, according to the IMF.

Fire reported in Syrian oil pipeline - Mehr News Agency --Local media in Syria reported a fire in an oil pipeline in the west of the country on Sunday. The official Syrian news agency -SANA- reported a fire in an oil pipeline in the Al-Furls District in Homs province in the eastern suburbs of Homs province. According to the report, firefighters were dispatched to the area to extinguish the fire. There were no more details about the incident.

Yemen's Houthis Target Two Ships in Gulf of Aden - Yemen’s Houthis targeted commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday and Thursday as part of their campaign to protest the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.The attacks came after a relative lull in Houthi operations following months of frequent attacks. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, claimed they hit the Maersk Yorktown, a US-flagged, owned, and operated container ship that has an American crew. However, US Central Command said a Houthi missile was intercepted that appeared to be targeting the Maersk Yorktown. CENTCOM said that “a coalition vessel successfully engaged one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM)” that was fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen. CENTCOM also said its forces downed four drones over Yemen on Wednesday.The following day, the Houthis claimed another attack on the MSC Darwin, a Liberian-flagged container ship. The British military’s UK Maritime Trade Operations Center also reported the attack and said the “vessel and all crew are safe.”Also on Thursday, the Houthi leader Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthisaid Ansar Allah forces would expand attacks on Israeli shipping into the Indian Ocean, a threat he first made back in March. Al-Houthi noted how his forces first started attacking Israel-linked commercial shipping to show support for Gaza and expanded to include British and American shipping when the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign in Yemen on January 12.

Dryad Says Reports Indicate Iran Intends to Disrupt Strait of Hormuz - Dryad Says Reports Indicate Iran Intends to Disrupt Strait of Hormuz - Recent reports indicate that Iran intends to disrupt operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Dryad Global stated in its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA), which was released on April 22. “The most recent incident, the seizure of the MSC Aries, demonstrates that Iran, despite being preoccupied with missile operations against Israel, continues to interdict and control vessel movement in the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, and Arabian Sea,” Dryad noted in the MSTA. “While Iran has repeatedly stated that it has the capability to shut down the choke point, doing so has appeared unfavorable because it would enrage its neighboring Arab nations,” it added. In the MSTA, Dryad said Iran’s most recent missile attack on Israel “was more theatrical than genuine military operations, knowing that Israel’s defense systems could easily defeat its drone and missile barrage”. “Iran is likely to intensify its operations in more easily controlled territory, such as the Strait of Hormuz, posing a significant threat to Israeli and NATO-affiliated commercial vessels,” it added. In a release sent to Rigzone earlier this month, Xeneta, which describes itself as the leading ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform, said the seizure of a container ship by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 “is extremely concerning and threatens to put trade lanes in the Middle East at risk”. “It has been reported that the MSC Aries was seized by Iran Revolutionary Guards 50 nautical miles (92km) northeast of Fujairah, an area close to the Strait of Hormuz that forms the entrance to the Arabian Gulf,” Xeneta noted in the release. “The latest incident follows ongoing conflict in the Red Sea region - the gateway to the Suez Canal - which has seen ocean freight container ships avoiding the area due to missile attacks by Houthi militia,” it added. Peter Sand, a Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said in the release, “an already bad situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has just got worse and could put ocean freight container imports and oil exports in the Middle East at risk”. On its site, Dryad describes the Strait of Hormuz as a narrow 21 mile wide channel separating Iran from the Arabia Peninsula. “It is used to transport a fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids which is around 21 million barrels or $1.2 billion worth of oil every day,” Dryad states on its site. “The majority of Saudi Arabia’s crude exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning much of the oil-dependent economy's wealth is situated there, similarly, 10 percent of the U.S.’s total oil imports per month transit the straits,” it adds. “Further, a quarter of the world’s LNG is also transported through the channel. This makes the Strait of Hormuz not only the world’s busiest shipping lane but also the most strategically important choke point for the world’s oil supply because there are limited alternatives to bypass the strait,” it continues. In a gas and LNG market update sent to Rigzone on April 17, Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Lu Ming Pang said, “the strategic significance of the Straits of Hormuz cannot be overstated and market participants will be closely monitoring developments in the region”. Pang described the straits as “a crucial artery for Qatar and the UAE to reach both European and Asian markets”.

Why Biden is Unlikely to Enforce the New Iran Oil Sanctions - Over the weekend, as part of the $95 billion package providing funding for aiding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan which passed by a vote of 360-58 on Saturday, the US House also passed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector set to become part of a foreign-aid package, putting the measure on track to pass the Senate within days.The legislation, as Bloomberg reports, would broaden sanctions against Iran to include foreign ports, vessels, and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude in violation of existing US sanctions. It would also would expand so-called secondary sanctions to cover all transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase petroleum and oil-derived products.About 80% of Iran’s roughly 1.5 million barrels of daily oil exports are shipped to independent refineries in China known as “teapots,” according to a summary of similar legislation.Yet while the sanctions could impact Iranian petroleum exports - and add as much as $8.40 to the price of a barrel of crude - they also include presidential waiver authorities, according to ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based consulting firm. "President Joe Biden might opt to invoke these authorities, vitiating the sanctions’ price impact; a second Trump Administration might not," ClearView wrote in a note to clients. Amrita Sen, founder and research director of Energy Aspects, agreed and told Bloomberg Television in an interview that Biden's Administration is unlikely to “strongly enforce” the restrictions in an election year. “I think all sanctions are sanctions on paper, with anything that remotely causes oil prices to go up, I don't believe they will enforce it strongly,” the research analyst told Bloomberg. “What I really want to highlight is this is a US election year, so let’s not kid ourselves,” the analyst noted. Moreover, China is buying most of Iran's crude oil exports, and the majority of buyers in the world’s top crude oil importer are the independent refiners, the so-called ‘teapots’ in the Shandong province, which are not connected with the U.S. financial system in any way. Therefore, the U.S. doesn’t have any means to enforce sanctions on China’s independent refiners for buying Iranian crude oil, Sen told Bloomberg.The teapots will continue to import Iran’s crude, while any new restrictions could take up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil off the market, she added. Crude oil exports from Iran hit the highest level in six years during the first quarter of the year, data from Goldman recently showed. The daily average over the period stood at 1.56 million barrels, almost all of which was sent to China, earning the Islamic Republic some $35 billion.

Iran Says Nuclear Weapons Have No Place in Its Nuclear Doctrine - On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry reaffirmed that Tehran is not seeking a nuclear bomb and that weapons have no place in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.“Iran has repeatedly said its nuclear program only serves peaceful purposes. Nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.Kanaani’s comments came after an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general suggested Iran could change its nuclear doctrine if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities.Any decision to build nuclear weapons would have to be made by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who issued a fatwa in 2003 forbidding the production and use of any weapon of mass destruction. The Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, also prohibited the creation of a WMD program.The fact that Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon was recently reaffirmed by the US’s annual “threat assessment” and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device,” the threat assessment says.Iran is enriching some uranium at 60%, which is the highest level it has ever attempted but is still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade. Iran has increased uranium enrichment since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, in 2018 and in response to Israeli covert attacks on its civilian nuclear program.“Iran uses its nuclear program to build negotiating leverage and respond to perceived international pressure. Tehran said it would restore JCPOA limits if the United States fulfilled its JCPOA commitments and the IAEA closed its outstanding safeguards investigations,” the threat assessment reads.

200,000 settlers in occupied lands escaped Hezbollah strikes - (MNA) – Sirens in multiple northern towns in occupied territories went off on Tuesday after suspected drone and rocket attacks by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement.Sirens in multiple northern towns warn of suspected drone and rocket attacks, Times of Israel reported on Tuesday. Alerts are heard in the coastal city Acre and towns a short distance north of Haifa, the regime media added.Meanwhile, Hezbollah Al-Manar TV cited the Israeli media outlets as reporting the explosion of a missile intercepting a suspicious object in the airspace of Nahariya.The suspected rocket and drone fire came after the Hezbollah moment mourned Martyr All the Way to Al-Quds Hussein Ali Azqoul (Hadi), who was martyred in an Israeli regime air strike in the south of Lebanon. Israeli military radio has reported that as many as 200,000 settlers in the North have resorted to shelters after three drones have been launched into Nahariya.

Nearly 300 bodies discovered in mass graves at Gaza’s Nasser hospital - Nearly 300 bodies were discovered in a series of mass graves near Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza, on Sunday and Monday. The dead include men, women and children, as well as people with clear indications of being medical patients. Some were discovered handcuffed, indicating that victims were killed in mass summary executions. After the discovery of similar mass graves in Gaza’s Shifa Hospital last month, the mass grave at Nasser Hospital presents further evidence that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has turned Gaza’s hospitals into killing fields as part of its ongoing genocide against the Palestinians in the narrow enclave. Palestinian journalist Bisan Owda visited the mass grave on Monday, documenting that “some bodies” were found “without organs or skin or heads.” Bisan pointed the camera at one of the hundreds of decomposed bodies strewn across the field where she was standing. The legs of the body were bandaged, suggesting the victim was a patient at the hostpital. “He or she was injured. And the Israeli army killed him and buried him in a mass grave,” she said. On Monday, Col. Yamen Abu Suleiman, Director of Civil Defense in Khan Younis, told CNN that “73 bodies were recovered” on Monday, bringing the total number to 283. Suleiman told CNN that some bodies were discovered with their hands and feet tied, pointing to summary executions. “We do not know if they were buried alive or executed.” Dr. Mads Gilbert, a Norwegian physician who had worked at Shifa Hopsital, told The Young Turks that the massacre is a “moral collapse.” Gilbert condemned Israel’s “ruthless massacres of unarmed civilian people in the hospitals.” He said these were “places of sanctuary to protect life, and to give people a shelter when they are wounded or injured or sick. The Israeli occupation army used these places to perform the most horrible, sadistic massacres of the Palestinian people.”\

Israeli Strikes in Rafah Kill 22, Including 18 Children - Israeli strikes hit the southern Gaza city of Rafah Saturday night into Sunday morning, killing 22 people, including 18 children, The Associated Press reported.The bombardment came just hours after the US House of Representatives passed a $26 billion bill that includes about $17 billion in military aid for Israel to support the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.According to AP, one of the overnight strikes killed a man, his wife, and their three-year-old child. The woman was 30 weeks pregnant, and medical staff at the nearby Kuwaiti hospital were able to save the baby. The second strike killed two women and 17 children.Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Sunday that the number of Palestinians killed in the Strip has reached 34,097, and 76,980 more have been wounded. The death toll is considered a low estimate since it doesn’t take into account people who are dead under the rubble.Rafah is packed with over 1 million Palestinian civilians and has been getting hit with near-daily Israeli strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been threatening to launch a full-scale invasion of the city.The US has claimed that it’s concerned about Netanyahu’s plans to invade Rafah but is not putting any real pressure on Israel since it continues to provide military aid and political support. US and Israeli officials discussed the potential assault last week, and the White House said the two sides had a “shared objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah.” On Sunday, Netanyahu thanked the US for the new aid being passed through Congress and vowed to escalate in Gaza. “In the coming days, we will increase the military and diplomatic pressure on Hamas because this is the only way to free our hostages and achieve our victory,” he said.

Hamas Official Says Group Willing To Disarm for Two-State Solution - A top Hamas political official has told The Associated Press that the Palestinian group would be open to a five-year truce with Israel and would disarm and become solely a political party if a Palestinian state was established along the pre-1967 borders.Speaking in Istanbul, Khalil al-Hayya said Hamas would accept “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions.” He said that Hamas wants to unite with Fatah, which heads the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian Liberation Organization, to form a unified government for Gaza and the West Bank.Hamas first sent the signal last week that it might be willing to dissolve its military wing, known as al-Qassam Brigades, in exchange for a two-state solution. After a meeting with Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the Palestinian group was willing to accept those conditions.Israel is not expected to pursue any deal that would give the Palestinians a state, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made his opposition to the idea very clear. He has said he wouldn’t allow a Palestinian state in any post-war scenario and has credited himself as the person who prevented a two-state solution in the past.Another major impediment to a two-state solution along the 1967 borders is the over 500,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Settlers continue to terrorize Palestinians and drive them out of their homes, and the Netanyahu government has explicitly stated it supports settlement expansion with the ultimate goal of annexing the West Bank.Netanyahu has maintained that his goal in Gaza is to “eradicate” Hamas even though both US and Israeli intelligence have said the group isn’t going anywhere. Al-Hayya said that Israeli forces “have not destroyed more than 20% of (Hamas’) capabilities, neither human nor in the field. If they can’t finish (Hamas) off, what is the solution? The solution is to go to consensus.”

NATO Says China Must Cut Trade With Russia To Have Good Relations With West -NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday went after China for its trade relationship with Russia, saying Beijing must reduce its trade with Moscow to have good relations with the West.Western officials often accuse China of supporting Russia’s military, but there’s no evidence of Beijing shipping weapons. Instead, they point to China’s export of semiconductors and raw materials.“Russia’s friends in Asia are vital for its war effort. First and foremost, China. China is propping up Russia’s war economy,” Stoltenberg said. “Sharing high-end technology like semiconductors and other dual-use items with Russia. Last year, Russia imported 90 percent of its micro-electronics from China. Used to produce missiles, tanks, and aircraft.”Stoltenberg also accused China of “fueling” the war even though Beijing has consistently called for peace talks while the US and leading NATO countries have discouraged diplomacy and have dumped tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons into Ukraine.“China says it wants good relations with the West. At the same time, Beijing continues to fuel the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War Two. They cannot have it both ways,” Stoltenberg said.

World defense spending reaches highest levels on record: Report -Military spending across the world last year reached the highest levels ever recorded by a major global think tank, soaring to $2.4 trillion in 2023, according to a new report. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said the $2.4 trillion in global defense spending last year marked a 6.8 percent increase from 2022 and is the ninth consecutive year of increased military spending. World military spending per person reached $306, the highest number recorded by SIPRI since 1990. “The rise in global military spending in 2023 can be attributed primarily to the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East,” researchers wrote in the report. “Military expenditure went up in all five geographical regions, with major spending increases recorded in Europe, Asia and Oceania and the Middle East.” The Hill previously reported how global defense spending has surged with the return of great power competition and a more multipolar world. That has sparked countries to rethink critical national security priorities and policies, from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. According to the SIPRI report, the U.S. and China account for about half of all global defense spending and the top 10 spenders account for 74 percent of all military spending. The U.S. spent $916 billion on defense last year, far higher than any other country. China spent $296 billion on defense last year, becoming the second highest spender and increasing its military budget by 6 percent from 2022. SIPRI noted that China has increased its military expenditures for the past 29 years, but that has slowed in the past 10 years, inline with a lagging economy. The third highest spender was Russia at $109 billion, up 24 percent from 2022, while India was the fourth highest spender at $83.6 billion and Saudi Arabia was fifth at $75.8 billion, according to the report.