Focus on Fracking: gasoline supplies at a 101 week high, distillates supplies at a 124 week high; December global oil shortage at 2,280,000 bpd

natural gas prices drop 24%, the most in 2 years; US gasoline supplies at a 101 week high, distillates supplies a 124 week high; global oil supply was 2,280,000 barrels per day short of global demand in December, with OPEC's output 332,000 barrels per day below their reduced target..

US oil prices rose for the fourth time in six weeks on escalating Mideast violence and cold weather damage to US production and refining….after falling 1.5% to $72.68 a barrel last week after the Saudis cut prices for their exports to Asia by $2, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery reversed some of the losses seen over the long holiday weekend in early trading Tuesday, as traders weighed concerns over attacks on tankers in the Red Sea against concerns that energy demand would weaken, but followed equity markets lower in Tuesday's afternoon session, pressured by a surging U.S. dollar as speculators pared back bets for near-term rate cuts after Fed Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that the central bank is "not rushed" to lower policy rates, and settled 28 cents lower at $72.40 a barrel as the stronger dollar made oil more expensive for overseas buyers….oil prices continued to trend lower early Wednesday on concerns over demand following weak economic data from China, but managed to recover to settle 16 cents higher at $72.56 a barrel as far below-zero temperatures in North Dakota caused oil production in the state to fall to less than half of normal…oil prices edged higher early Thursday after the U.S. struck Houthi missile launchers in Yemen in its latest response to the group’s repeated attacks on Red Sea shipping, while Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes in Iran, then rallied to settle $1.52 or more than 2% higher at $74.08 a barrel after the IEA forecast stronger global growth of oil demand and the EIA reported a larger than expected draw from US crude stocks…oil prices edged lower on Friday as traders weighed forecasts of an amply supplied market against increased attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and settled 67 cents lower at $73.41 per barrel on concerns about Chinese and global demand, but still finished 1.0% higher for the week after the arctic cold outbreak disrupted operations in the Bakken oil fields and also knocked refinery capacity offline in Texas.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices fell sharply this week, after rising each of the previous four weeks, on forecasts for a national warming trend and a lower than expected withdrawal of gas from storage….after rising 14.5% to a ten week high of $3.313 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for record breaking demand for heating and a larger than expect draw of gas from storage, the contract price for natural gas for February delivery opened 20 cents lower on Tuesday, as traders looked past the immediate brutal cold to an expected warm-up next week, as indicated by increased confidence in weather models, and continued to tumble to settle 41.3 cents, or 13% lower at $2.900 per mmBTU, on forecasts for heating demand to drop and output to rise once the weather turns warmer in late January after gas flows to LNG export plants had dropped on Monday to a three-month low…February gas tumbled another 15 cents in the opening hours on Wednesday, as bearish forecasts for the end of the month continued to deflate the contract, but began a staggered recovery before falling back again to settle 3.0 cents lower at $2.870 per mmBTU, as an unusually mild late-January weather forecast shifted attention away from ongoing supply disruptions from the Arctic cold sweeping across the country….the February gas contract opened five cents lower on Thursday and fell to as low as $2.722 late morning after the storage withdrawal reported by the EIA failed to impress, then tumbled again in afternoon trading to settle 17.3 cents, or 6% lower at $2.697 per mmBTU as gas flowing to LNG export plants this week fell to a one-year low, as energy firms sold some of their gas into the domestic market as the extreme cold boosted U.S. power gas prices to multi-year highs…US natural gas prices then fell another 17.8 cents to a three week low of $2.519 per mmBTU on Friday, on forecasts for demand to drop and output to rise as the weather turned warmer than normal in late January and early February. and thus ended 24.0% lower on the week, the largest one week drop since December 2021..

The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending January 12th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US fell by 154 billion cubic feet to 3,182 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 350 billion cubic feet, or 12.4% above the 2,832 billion cubic feet that were in storage on January 12th of last year, and 320 billion cubic feet, or 11.2% more than the five-year average of 2,862 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were typically in working storage as of the 12th of January over the most recent five years…the 154 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas working storage for the cited week was less than the average 162 billion cubic feet withdrawal from supplies that had been forecast by analysts polled by Reuters, but was more than double the 68 billion cubic feet that were pulled from natural gas storage during the corresponding second week of January 2023, and was also more than the average 126 billion cubic feet withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early winter week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA -

The US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 12th showed that after a big jump in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the fifth time in thirteen weeks, and for the 19th time in the past 31 weeks, as the EIA balance sheet was close to balanced for the 2nd week in a row….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,179,000 barrels per day to average 7,420,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 654,000 barrels per day the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 1,707,000 barrels per day to average a 5,029,000 barrels per day, which combined meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,391,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 12th, 528,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, natural gasoline, condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 689,000 barrels per day, while during the same period, production of crude from US wells increased by 100,000 barrels per day to 13,300,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a rounded total of 16,380,000 barrels per day during the January 12th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,653,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 12th, an average of 135,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a rounded average of 271,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US... So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending January 12th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production was a rounded 2,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week, the closest to a suppply & demand balance we’ve seen in years..

This week's rounded 271,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as 356,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 85,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventh SPR increase in fourteen weeks. following nearly continuous withdrawals over the prior 39 months... Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,708,000 barrels per day last week, which was 6.6% more than the 6,294,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 100,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,300,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was a rounded 100,000 barrels per day higher at 12,900,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 42,000 barrels per day higher at 435,000 barrels per day but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA's rounded national total as it did last week...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.5% above that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and 37.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.6% of their capacity while processing those 16,653,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 12th, down from their utilization rate of 92.9% the prior week, and a near normal utilization rate for early January ... the 16,653,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 12.1% more than the 14,853,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending January 13th of 2023 (after the refinery-freeze-offs following the Christmas 2022 blizzard), but 1.9% less than the 16,973,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 10th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 92.2%..

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was lower, decreasing by 291,000 barrels per day to 9,365,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 12th, after our refineries' gasoline output had increased by 901,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was still 5.6% more than the 8,865,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the storm impacted week of last year, and 0.9% more than the gasoline production of 9,281,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending January 10th 2020....at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 265,000 barrels per day to 4,902,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 64,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with this week’s decrease, our distillates output was 6.5% more than the 4,601,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 13th of 2023, but was 5.8% less than the 5,205,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 10th 2020..

Even with this week's decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the 8th time in nine weeks, increasing by 3,082,000 barrels to a 101 week high of 248,065,000 barrels during the week ending January 12th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 8,028,000 during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased by less this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 56,000 barrels per day to 8,269,000 barrels per day because our exports of gasoline rose by 274,000 barrels per day to 1,097,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 49,000 barrels per day to 549,000 barrels per day…Even after twenty-seven gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 7.7% above than last January 13th's gasoline inventories of 230,259,000 barrels, and slightly above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Despite this week's decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the eighth consecutive week, following eight straight decreases, increasing by 2,370,000 barrels to a 124 week high of 134,753,000 barrels over the week ending January 12th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 6,528,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 213,000 barrels per day to 3,645,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 159,000 barrels per day to 115,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates fell by 43,000 barrels per day to 1,033,000 barrels per day...With 23 inventory decreases over the past forty-four weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 16.4% above the 115,777,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 13th of 2023, but were still about 3% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year...

Finally, after the big jump in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 16th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 28th time in the past year, decreasing by 2,492,000 barrels over the week, from 432,403,000 barrels on January 5th to 429,911,000 barrels on January 12th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 1,338,000 barrels over the prior week... With that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories slipped to about 3% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 31% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell in the wake of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this January 12th were 4.0% less than the 448,015,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 13th of 2023, but 3.9 % more than the 413,813,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on January 14th of 2022, while still 11.6% less than the 486,563,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on January 15th of 2021, after 2020’s pandemic precautions had left a lot of oil unused…

OPEC's Report on Global Oil for December

Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's January Oil Market Report, which includes the details on OPEC's & global oil data for December, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation as the major OECD economies outside of the US had slowed, and as Chinese demand growth remained sluggish after their brisk first half recovery from the country's restrictive Covid policy, while oil supplies continued to be impacted by an ongoing unilateral million barrel per day production cut by the Saudis...December was also the twelfth month that OPEC and aligned oil producers were operating under a 2 million barrel per day production cut, meant to take roughly 2% of global oil supplies off the market, in response to a perceived global surplus and related lower prices of a year ago, and the seventh month of a Saudi led cut of an additional 1.16 million barrels per day, which, when combined with a unilateral 500,000 million barrel per day Russian cut, was intended to take an additional 1.66 million barrels per day off the market for the rest of this year...all told, the members of the cartel had committed to holding 4.66 million barrels per day, or roughly 4.6% of global supplies, off the market during this month....

The first table from this month's report that we'll review is from the page numbered 53 of the report (pdf page 63), and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings below indicate...for all their official production measurements, OPEC has been using an average of production estimates by as many as eight "secondary sources", namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), the industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie and the research and intelligence firm Rystad Energy, as a means of impartially adjudicating whether their output quotas and production cuts are being met, to thereby avert any potential disputes that could arise if each member reported their own figures…

As we can see in the bottom right hand corner of the above table, OPEC's oil output increased by 73,000 barrels per day to a rounded 26,700 during December, up from their revised November production total that averaged 26,628,000 barrels per day...that November OPEC output figure was originally reported as 27,837,000 barrels per day, because it included Angola, which has since quit the cartel in a dispute over its quota…Angola had produced 1,130,000 barrels per day during November, so last month’s report excluding Angola’s output indicated total production of 26,707,000 barrels per day in November for the 12 OPEC members that remained in the cartel in December….hence, this month’s figure of 26,628,000 barrels per day shown for November means that OPEC's November production was revised 80,000 barrels per day lower with this report, and hence OPEC's December production was, in effect, 7,000 barrels per day less than the previously reported OPEC production figure (for your reference, here is a copy of the table of the official November OPEC output figures as reported a month ago, before this month's revision)...

the 100,000 barrel per day production increase by Nigeria this week would not effect their quota, since they’ve been underproducing by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day all year…on the other hand, Iraq’s oil production had been running a bit higher than the accumulated cuts they had committed to, so this month’s modest increase leaves them farther above their committed to quota...

the series of oil supply cuts imposed by the OPEC+ cartel over the past year began with a 2 million barrel per day production cut that the joint agreement imposed on all producers in October 2022...following that, six OPEC oil producers, led by the Saudis, and two other oil producers aligned with OPEC+, came to an agreement at the beginning of April to further reduce their combined production by an additional 1.16 million barrels per day beginning in May, over and above the formal OPEC cuts...in addition, Russia agreed to extend their ongoing 500,000 barrels per day voluntary output cut for the rest of the year for a total cut of 1.66 million barrels per day from those nine producers...then the Saudis committed to an additional million barrel per day output cut that was first implemented in July, and that cut was extended to the end of this year in September...

production cuts that OPEC members committed to under the April agreement included 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the Saudis, 211,000 bpd from Iraq, 140,000 bpd from the Emirates, 128,000 bpd from Kuwait, 48,000 barrels per day from Algeria, and 8,000 barrels per day from Gabon...seven months ago, our initial assessment was that only the Saudis managed to hit the additional production cut target in May, and only Algeria joined them in June, indeed, most of the others who announced cuts in April increased their production over the June through December period, rather than cutting it...hence, the net production reduction remains about half of what had been committed to by the parties to that April 2nd agreement..

OPEC and other aligned oil producers had previously agreed to reduce production by 2,000,000 barrels per day beginning last November, so the net 967,000 barrels per day OPEC ex-Saudi Arabia have cut since then is also well short of that...however, OPEC's production was already running 1,585,000 barrels per day below what they were expected to produce when that policy was initiated in October of last year, so the 26,700,000 barrels per day OPEC produced in December still leaves them short of what they were expected to produce during the month anyway, as we'll see in the next table...

The above table was originally included as a downloadable attachment to the press release following the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on October 5th, 2022, which set OPEC's and other aligned oil producers' production quotas for November 2022 and the following months through the end of 2023, and the quotas shown above were reaffirmed by the cartel for 2023 in during the 34th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on December 4th, 2022....the first column above, labeled "August 2022 required production", actually matches the October 2018 baseline production level on which OPEC and aligned producers have based all of their quotas since the onset of the pandemic, and the "Voluntary adjustment" is the production cut each country was expected to make from that benchmark level to achieve a 2 million barrel per day cut for the cartel as a whole, leaving each country with a "Voluntary Production" level they're expected to hit each month during 2023, whether they've been able to produce that much recently or not....since war torn Libya and US sanctioned producers Iran and Venezuela have been exempt from the production cuts imposed by the joint agreement that has governed the output of the other OPEC producers since May 2020, they are not shown on the above list, and OPEC's quota excluding them is aggregated under the total listed for the 'OPEC 10', which you can see was expected to be at 25,416,000 barrels per day from November 2022 through December 2023...

with the April 2nd agreement, six members of OPEC agreed to further reduce their production by 1,035.000 starting in May and through the end of the year....thus the voluntary production level for the OPEC 10 would have been reduced from 25,416,000 to 24,381,000 through December....subtracting the one million barrel per day cut from the Saudi's production initiated in July from that would leave OPEC's 'voluntary production' level at 23,381,000 barrels for the month of December....further subtracting the 1,455,000 barrel per day production that Angola was expected to produce from that means the nine members of the cartel still governed by the October 2022 and april 2023 agreements were expected to produce 21,926,000 barrels during December…

therefore, the 21,594,000 barrels those 9 OPEC members actually produced in December were 332,000 barrels per day short of what they were expected to produce during the month, with Nigeria still accounting for the majority of this month's production shortfall...

The next graphic from this month's report that we'll look at shows us both OPEC's and worldwide oil production monthly on the same graph, over the period from January 2022 thru December 2023, and it comes from page 54 (pdf page 64) of OPEC's January Oil Market Report....on this graph, the sky blue bars represent OPEC's monthly oil production in millions of barrels per day as shown on the left scale, while the purple line graph represents global oil production in millions of barrels per day, with the metrics for global output shown on the right scale....

After this month's 73,000 barrel per day increase in OPEC's production from their sharply revised production of a month earlier, OPEC's preliminary estimate is that total global liquids production decreased by a rounded average of 400,000 to an average of 100.9 million barrels per day in November, after November's total global output figure was apparently revised down by 400,000 barrels per day from the 101.7 million barrels per day of global oil output that was reported for November a month ago, as non-OPEC oil production fell by a rounded 500,000 barrels per day in November after that revision, with most of December’s non-OPEC production decrease due to lower oil output from Russia and the US, which more than offset greater oil production from Canada and other Eurasian countries...

With the December decrease in global oil output, the amount of oil being produced globally during the month again fell far short of the expected global demand, as this next table from the OPEC report will show us...

The above table came from page 28 of the January Oil Market Report (pdf page 38), and it shows regional and total oil demand estimates in millions of barrels per day for 2022 in the first column, and then OPEC's estimate of oil demand by region and globally, quarterly over 2023 over the rest of the table…on the "Total world" line in the fifth column, we've circled in blue the figure that's relevant for December, which is their estimate of global oil demand during the fourth quarter of 2023….OPEC estimated that during the 4th quarter of last year, all oil consuming regions of the globe used an average of 103.18 million barrels of oil per day, which was a rounded 90,000 barrels per day downward revision from their estimate for the fourth quarter a month ago (as we’ve circled in green)....but as OPEC showed us in the oil supply section of this report and the summary supply graph above, OPEC and the rest of the world's oil producers were only producing 100.9 million barrels per day during December, which would imply that there was a shortage of around 2,280,000 barrels per day of global oil production during December, when compared to the demand estimated for the month...

in addition to figuring the December oil shortage that's indicated by this report, the downward revision of 90,000 barrels per day to 4th quarter demand we've circled in green above, combined with the downward revision of 400,000 barrels per day to November's global oil output that's implied in this report means that the 1,580,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for November would now be revised to an oil shortage of 1,890,000 barrels per day...likewise, the downward revision of 90,000 barrels per day to 4th quarter demand noted above means that the 1,180,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for October would now be revised to an oil shortage of 1,090,000 barrels per day...

Note that in green we have circled an upward revision of 90,000 barrels per day to OPEC's previous estimate for third quarter demand. That means that the 820,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for September would be revised to a shortage of 910,000 barrels per day, the shortage of 1,310,000 barrels per day we had previously figured for August would now be revised to a shortage of 1,400,000 barrels per day, and the shortage of 1,430,000 barrels per day barrels per day we had previously figured for July would have to be revised to a shortage of 1,520,000 barrels per day...

Note that in green we have also circled an upward revision of 280,000 barrels per day to OPEC's previous estimate for second quarter demand...so, based on that upward revision to demand, our previous estimate of a shortage of 580,000 barrels per day in June would now be revised to a shortage of 860,000 barrels per day...in addition, the 880,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for May would now be revised to a shortage of 1,160,000 barrels per day...meanwhile, the global shortage of 260,000 barrels per day we had previously figured for April would now be revised to a shortage of 540,000 barrels per day, in light of that 280,000 barrel per upward revision to 2nd quarter demand....

For the first quarter, there was a downward revision of 270,000 barrels per day to OPEC's previous estimate of first quarter demand….That means that the 220,000 barrels per day global oil output surplus we had previously figured for March would be revised to a surplus of 490,000 barrels per day.. similarly, the downward revision to first quarter demand means that the global oil surplus of 520,000 barrels per day we had previously figured for February would now be revised to a surplus of 790,000 barrels per day, while the 250,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for January would now be revised to a surplus of 40,000 barrels per day, in light of the 270,000 barrel per day downward revision to first quarter demand...

This Week's Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including below a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 19th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 12th) and this week’s (January 19th) count, the third column shows last week’s January 12th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 20th of January, 2023...

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Oil, Gas Production Projected to Drop Across Utica, Marcellus - Youngstown Business Journal Daily – Oil and gas production across the Appalachian Basin is expected to drop in February compared with January, according to the most recent drilling productivity report from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. The Appalachian Basin constitutes the combined oil and gas-rich Utica/Point Pleasant and Marcellus shale formations across eastern Ohio, western and central Pennsylvania and West Virginia. In January, wells across the basin produced an average of 147,000 barrels of oil per day, according to the EIA. In February, that number is expected to decline to 145,000 barrels per day, the report shows. Columbiana County has emerged as a hot spot for oil production in eastern Ohio’s Utica/Point Pleasant shale through the first three quarters of 2023, records from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources show. Through the first nine months of 2023 – the most recent production data available – horizontal wells across the county collectively produced 728,413 barrels of oil, data show. Much of the oil production during the third quarter of 2023 came from a handful of newly drilled wells by EAP Ohio, a subsidiary of Houston-based Encino Energy Partners, which has offices in Carrollton. Four EAP wells drilled at the Sanor Farms well pad in Knox Township yielded 258,739 barrels of oil. Three of those wells – the Sanor 6H, 8H and 10H – are ranked sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively, among the top 10 oil producers in the state, according to ODNR. Natural gas production across the Utica/Point Pleasant and Marcellus shale is also expected to decline next month, according to the EIA. In January, Appalachian wells yielded on average 35.642 billion cubic feet per day. That number is expected to drop by 159 million cubic feet per day to 35.483 billion. The EIA reports that overall oil and gas production across all seven shale plays across the country will decline in February. Just one shale play, the Permian Basin in Texas, is expected to increase oil production during February, with a boost of 5,000 barrels per day. Overall oil production across the shale regions is projected to drop by 2,000 barrels per day. Natural gas production is expected to decline, too, the EIA reports. In January, shale wells across the country produced 99.076 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. In February, the number is expected to drop to 98.889 billion, or a decline of 187 million cubic feet per day.

EOG Resources: Continued Growth And The Utica Shale - EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) is one of the premier oil producers in the United States. My last article where I discussed EOG Resources was published on August 28, 2023. At that time I rated the company a Strong Buy and the company traded at $125.81 per share. At the same time, WTI oil traded for roughly $80 and today oil is trading for $72.68. On a percentage basis, EOG Resources shares have performed slightly better than oil prices. Natural gas prices have increased slightly during that same time period.Since then, the company last reported its Q3 financial results in November 2, 2023. The company is very active in the Delaware Basin within the larger Permian Basin but the company's most interesting up-and-coming prospect lies in the Utica Shale, which sits primarily in eastern Ohio. EOG Resources is an interesting company to follow as their leadership is usually ahead of other companies in unveiling the next promising hydrocarbon play.EOG Resources currently has a strong balance sheet relative to its peers, as it normally does. Were oil prices to decline significantly, EOG is financially positioned to weather the storm for long-term shareholders.EOG continues to grow their annual operating cash flow. Although oil prices have been steady and on a slight decline over the past year, that hasn't stopped EOG from growing its cash flows. When oil prices begin to rise again, EOG is positioned to see strong growth in cash flows from its growth in production.Because of its strong returns that EOG receives from its capital investments, they are committed to returning 60% of their annual free cash flow to shareholders. They execute this strategy through their regular dividend, share repurchases, and special dividends. The chart below demonstrates where the free cash flow is estimated to go when FY2023 results are reported. The remaining free cash flow will be used to retire debt that is maturing..The last section showed EOG's continued cash flow growth which is translated from its steadily growing annual production. Their Q4 and full year results will be reported some time in February and if they hit their estimates they will have accomplished growth in each hydrocarbon category. Here are the estimated YoY growth projections in each category.

Oil and Condensate: 3.05%
Natural Gas Liquids: 11.46%
Natural Gas: 13.7%
MBOeD: 8.13%

The slide below from their Q3 presentation shows EOG's acreage in the Utica Combo Play as well as some of their wells in the play. Thus far, the company is seeing results that they believe rivals even the Delaware Basin in the Permian Basin. After 90 days of production, the company is seeing a product mix of 55% oil, 25% NGLs, and 20% gas which is attractive relative to product mixes in other plays. Currently, oil and gas companies are able to generate better returns from oil rather than gas and so 'oil-ier' wells is what EOG likes to see. Unconventional Combo plays like the Utica Shale present good diversification strategies across the various products for companies like EOG as well. Currently, EOG Resources has 430,000 net acres in the Utica Shale while growing their position when the opportunity presents itself. This play is not as big as the Permian and so to amass that much acreage is impressive. It is uncommon for a company to be able to acquire 100% of the mineral interests, but EOG Resources claims to have been able to do so across 135,000 of their Utica acres. Should the company want to retain their Utica acreage without investing in further drilling and development, they are able to do so on 90% of their current acreage in the play.

Fitch Rates EQT Corporation's Proposed 10-Year Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB-' Fitch Ratings The company has another 70,000 core net acres in Ohio's Utica Shale. EQT estimates it has 2,100 core undeveloped drilling locations ...

EQT Expecting Stronger Natural Gas Output in 4Q, with Higher Spending in 2024 as Inflation Lingers - EQT Corp., the nation’s largest natural gas producer, said in a regulatory filing that it expects to spend more this year than in 2023 In preliminary fourth quarter results filed in a Form 8K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday, EQT said it expects capital expenditures of $2.15-2.35 billion in 2024. That compares with $1.7-1.9 billion initially guided for 2023 spending. The Appalachian pure-play bolted on 90,000 net acres in West Virginia in a deal to acquire Tug Hill Inc.’s upstream and midstream assets that closed in 3Q2023. As a result, fourth quarter production is expected to come in at 525-575 Bcfe, compared with 459 Bcfe it reported in the year-ago period. In addition to the acquisition, analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. said in a...

Arguments heard in injection well suspension case – Athens County Independent — The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission heard two days of testimony last week as it considers whether to reverse the state’s suspension of three fracking waste injection wells in eastern Athens County. The state says the suspension is necessary to protect drinking water.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management initially suspended the three wells, operated by K&H Partners, in May. The three class II wells are used to contain toxic wastewater from oil and gas production thousands of feet underground, isolating it from groundwater. The wastewater is commonly known as brine. However, the division found that fluid injected into the wells had spread at least 1.5 miles underground, reaching oil and gas production wells in Athens and Washington counties. The underground spread of fracking waste threatens drinking water and therefore human health and the environment, the division has said. The division has estimated that at least 20 water wells within a half-mile radius of the K&H wells could be affected, though it has not yet seen direct evidence of drinking water contamination.The division’s expert witness on groundwater, Ohio University Professor Natalie Kruse Daniels, testified at the hearing that many people in eastern Athens County rely exclusively on private groundwater wells for drinking water. If groundwater were impacted, it may be difficult for residents to notice, she said. If an impact does occur, Kruse Daniels said it would impact the community’s drinking water “in perpetuity,” and many residents may not be able to shoulder the cost of accessing clean drinking water.“There is a risk to the residents of the community, and they deserve to be heard,” Kruse Daniels said.K&H had and continues to have the option to create a plan that would bring its wells up to the division’s standards. At the hearing last week, Mike Stahl, director of water operations at Tallgrass Energy, parent company to K&H, said the only way the company believes it could meet the division’s standards would be to drill the wells substantially deeper, into a lower geologic formation. Stahl estimated that this would cost $4 million, and said at the hearing it is not economically feasible. In court documents, the company valued its operation in Torch at $43 million. Tallgrass Energy is owned by the trillion-dollar hedge fund Blackstone, Inc., which claims to be the “world’s largest alternative asset manager.”Instead of working with the division on a plan to address its concerns, K&H quickly appealed the state’s suspension order, both to the quasi-judicial Ohio Oil and Gas Commission, created to hear these types of cases, and the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas. The Franklin County case was later dismissed for lack of jurisdiction.

Natural Gas Production Plunges Amid Arctic Blast, Spurring Spot Price Surge - Extreme cold that permeated much of the Lower 48 throughout the long Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend and into the current trading week at once sent natural gas demand soaring and froze wells, causing steep cuts to production that carried into Tuesday. Temperatures over parts of the Mountain West, Plains and Midwest plunged to around 50 below zero when accounting for wind chills over the weekend. Conditions remained frigid Tuesday. Ahead of that, natural gas cash prices ballooned last Friday, when NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. spiked $13.450 to $16.770 and reached the highest level since 2021. That year, Winter Storm Elliott ushered in brutal winter conditions to Texas that forced deadly power outages and contributed to a massive...

NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X --Marcellus Drilling News -- U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.

Activists warn of health, climate risks of proposed CT gas pipeline; Company says it will stabilize energy access and costs --- For the last five years, Sena Wazer has fought climate change, but the 20-year-old environmental activist’s latest battle hits closer to home than ever before. “As a young person, it constantly feels like I’m watching my future go up in flames,” Wazer said. The natural gas pipeline that runs a street down from Wazer’s family home in Mansfield is part of a proposed 1,131-mile expansion of the Algonquin Gas Transmission line. The proposal, known as Project Maple, would raise the natural gas-carrying capacity of the pipeline, which bisects Connecticut and extends into New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Enbridge, the Canadian-based energy company behind the project, said in documents that the expansion will increase the reliability of the Northeast’s power grid, stabilize gas prices, and support “New England’s continued journey to Net Zero.” Wazer called the proposal “a slap in the face,” from Enbridge but also the federal commissions, state agencies and governors who have not opposed the project. “The science is very clear that we need to be rapidly moving off of fossil fuel infrastructure. But instead here we are expanding it in a way that prolongs our reliance,” Wazer said. “I want them to know that young folks are watching and this is our future that they’re deciding whether or not to sacrifice in the name of profit.” Wazer is part of a growing grassroots coalition in Connecticut that emerged in opposition to Project Maple. Through protest and advocacy, the multistate movement hopes to compel federal policymakers and state leaders to adhere to climate goals and block Enbridge’s expansion. According to documents from Enbridge, the company anticipates that Project Maple, which could process an extra 249 to 499 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in some locations, could go online “as early as November 2029.” The expansion would include an overhaul of existing pipeline infrastructure in order to increase its carrying volume. Expected renovations in the documents include replacing smaller diameter pipes with larger ones, laying new transmission lines besides existing infrastructure, and expanding compressor stations along the route. Max Bergeron, an Enbridge spokesperson, said the company remains “very early in the process and plan to finalize the project scope and schedule.” He said Enbridge initiated Project Maple in response to grid reliability concerns increased demand “from gas utilities and power generators” along the Algonquin Gas Transmission system. “The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has held technical conferences which have highlighted the power grid reliability concerns the region continues to face, and Project Maple is one solution which seeks to meet the need for reliable access to fuel for power generation, in addition to supporting growing demand from gas utilities,” Bergeron said in a statement to the Courant. On paper, the prospect of a natural gas expansion appears at odds with the Northeast region’s ambitious climate goals. With the exception of New Hampshire, each New England state has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions economywide by 2050, according to ISO New England. Connecticut is uniquely legislated to maintain a carbon-free electric grid by 2040. Currently, Connecticut consumes more natural gas than any other energy source. In 2023 natural gas-fired power plants accounted for 60% of all electricity generated in the state, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But Paul Coppleman, a spokesperson for the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, said in a statement to the Courant that the state’s “electricity supply is already 73% carbon free.” “The Lamont Administration’s strategy is to provide clean, affordable, and reliable energy to the residents and businesses of Connecticut, and to achieve our state’s statutory target of 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2040,” Copleman said. “Achieving the 2040 target will require bringing additional new carbon-free energy online as well as ensuring that existing carbon-free resources, like nuclear, continue to operate.” In December, more than 90 climate and environmental justice groups sent Gov. Ned Lamont and the leaders of other impacted states a letter opposing Project Maple. The letter urged the governors to oppose the expansion publicly, demand “strict adherence and enforcement of all climate laws and regulation,” and “deny all permits to Project Maple.” In response to activists’ action, Lamont’s Senior Press Secretary David Bednarz said in a statement to the Courant that “The governor appreciates their outreach and will take their feedback into consideration.” Environmental groups in Connecticut have also called on DEEP Commissioner Katie Dykes to deny all state permits for the Project Maple Expansion. “DEEP is aware of the early-stage efforts exploring additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure that would potentially service Connecticut customers and transport gas through the state,” Paul Copleman said. “As no application has been submitted to DEEP, it would be premature to comment on the project.” Nick Katkevich, the Northeast field organizer for the Sierra Club, said that this kind of preemptive action is part of the coalition’s strategy to block Project Maple. In order for Enbridge to proceed with the expansion, Project Maple must first receive a green light from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission – an agency that Katkevich said “seldom rejects fossil fuel projects.” But, even if Project Maple passes this stage, Katkevich said he is confident that the coalition can block the project through information campaigns, letter writing, protest, public hearings and other actions that will get state and federal officials, and the public, to adopt their cause. “If they (Enbridge) are wanting to expand compressor stations, they’re going to need air permits from all the state agencies. And if they’re crossing waterways, they might need waterway permits as well,” Katkevich said. “There’s lots of opportunities to stop this project.” “This is just the beginning of this coordinated regional resistance,” Katekevich added. “I think what’s on our side is really shifting the narrative from top to bottom politically in the region against this project.” Enbridge argues that Project Maple would benefit the Northeast. “Greater access to reliable, affordable natural gas supplies can help lower energy costs for consumers in New England, help address well-known energy reliability concerns, and help prevent the use of higher-emitting fuels during high energy-demand periods such as during the winter,” Bergeron said. According to a forecast from ISO New England released in June, the demand for electricity in the region is expected to grow 2.3% each year through 2032, with winter peak demand projected at a 2.9% annual increase In documents, Enbridge said that as the demand for solar and wind energy grows, so will the need for natural gas to “offset the supply gaps” during peak demand periods that coincide with a decrease in renewable energy productivity. Enbridge said that “pipeline infrastructure has played a critical role in the emissions reduction success New England has achieved to date,” and that the Project Maple expansion would be “supporting New England’s continued journey to Net Zero.” Martha Klein, a Connecticut resident who serves as the lead organizer of Stop Project Maple for the Sierra Club, described Enbridge’s net zero claims as “Orwellian.” While natural gas is often touted as the “cleaner” alternative to its fossil fuel counterparts due to its comparatively low carbon dioxide emissions, Klein said that any potential benefits to the earth’s atmosphere are offset by methane leaks. “You are accelerating climate change at an even worse pace than if you were burning coal or oil because of fugitive methane emissions,” Klein said. Methane, the predominant component of natural gas, traps heat in the atmosphere at 28 times the rate of carbon dioxide, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Next to agriculture, the EPA said natural gas and petroleum systems are the second largest source of methane emissions in the country, which “occur in all segments of the natural gas industry, from production, through processing and transmission, to distribution … through intentional venting and unintentional leaks.” These leaks can sometimes also lead to disaster. Between 2010 and 2021, 368 documented pipeline explosions resulted in 89 deaths, 440 injuries and millions of dollars in property damages, according to an analysis of data from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration compiled by the Doan Law Firm. Chemical pollutants from compressor stations that operate along the pipeline are also a major concern. Ian McDonald of the Windham Willimantic NAACP Environmental Justice Committee said the areas most impacted by fossil fuel infrastructure often overlap with historically marginalized communities, distressed communities and communities of color. “The impacts in terms of fugitive methane emissions tend to be especially bad, a lot of times, in already affected environmental justice communities, who already have particularly heavy pollution burdens,” McDonald said. “[Project Maple] is a major climate concern, but there are also serious concerns about exacerbating localized pollution, particularly when Connecticut has some of the worst ozone pollution.

MVP construction almost done, developers say -- Six winters ago, the first of many trees was felled to make way for a behemoth natural gas pipeline that would snake its way through the mountains of Southwest Virginia. After many starts and stops — which took the Mountain Valley Pipeline through regulatory hearings, courtrooms, Congress and eventually the U.S. Supreme Court — it appears the end is in sight. Mountain Valley “has continued to make significant forward construction progress” and remains on target to have the 303-mile pipeline completed by the end of March, the company said in a Jan. 3 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. When work resumed last summer, after repeated delays caused by legal challenges, Mountain Valley still had to cross 428 streams and wetlands, either by digging through or boring under them. All but 49 had been completed by early January. About 20 miles of pipe sections have been welded together, leaving less than a mile to go. And six of nine major boring projects, including one that channeled the pipe under Interstate 81 in Montgomery County, have been completed, according to the SEC report. In previous winters, construction of the $7.2 billion project was either stalled by the courts and regulatory agencies or put on hold due to cold weather and heavy snows. But a relatively mild start to 2024 allowed construction to continue at a brisk pace. Rather than reduce its workforce to about 500, as it originally planned, Mountain Valley says up to 2,000 workers remain on the job along the buried pipeline’s route, which takes it from northern West Virginia, through the New River and Roanoke valleys, to connect with an existing pipeline near the North Carolina line. Crews are continuing to work through “challenging physical construction conditions,” the SEC report says. Some of the last sections to be completed are on particularly steep slopes, such as Poor Mountain in Roanoke and Montgomery counties. Digging trenches for the 42-inch diameter pipe up and down mountainsides, especially during heavy rains, produced muddy runoff that carried sediment onto adjacent private property and into streams and wetlands. During the first two years of construction in 2018 and 2019, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality cited Mountain Valley with more than 300 violations of erosion and sedimentation control regulations. The joint venture of five energy companies building the pipeline agreed to pay a fine of $2.15 million. Since work resumed last summer, there have been no findings of non-compliance, DEQ spokeswoman Irina Calos said. Much of the earth moving likely to cause erosion has already occurred, and Mountain Valley says it took steps to improve measures to curb runoff after being hit with the large fine. But opponents say there is still plenty of damage being caused by pipeline construction — damage they say is being overlooked by state inspectors after Congress passed a law last year that declared the project in the national interest, shielded it from lawsuits, and fast-tracked its completion. The U.S. Supreme Court lifted a stay on work in July that had been imposed by a Richmond-based federal appeals court, dealing with what amounted to a death blow to legal challenges brought by environmental groups. Previously, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had thrown out nearly a dozen government permits that the lawsuits said did not adequately guard against erosion. That erosion, some say, now goes unchecked. “We are alarmed by the high amounts of sedimentation in creeks and streams along the route,” said Russell Chisholm, managing director of the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights coalition. “This will alter those water bodies forever.” Mountain Valley Watch, a citizens group that trains volunteers to monitor work sites for problems, has reported 57 cases to DEQ since last summer and asked for investigations. “These were all met with complacent DEQ dismissal,” Chisholm wrote in an email.

Inside the last-ditch effort to stop the Mountain Valley Pipeline - As day broke over the small mountain town of Elliston, Virginia, one Monday in October, masked figures in thick coats emerged from the woods surrounding a construction site. Three of them approached three excavators and, one by one, locked themselves to the machines, bringing the day’s work to a halt. As they did so, several dozen of their fellow protesters gathered around them, unfurling banners and chanting amid the groaning and beeping of construction equipment. They made their way across the field, over patches of bare earth, around sections of rusty pipe meant for burial beneath the mountain. Eventually the metal tubes will form yet another section of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which will soon carry 2 billion cubic feet of fracked methane from the shale fields of West Virginia to North Carolina each day. Workers in highlighter-yellow vests and hard hats milled around, some looking amused, others frustrated. One or two engaged with the protesters, only to be told off by an irate site manager. A few miles away at the West Virginia state line, another three dozen or so activists did much the same atop Peters Mountain. One even managed to crawl under an excavator and lock herself in place, despite the cold. The others rallied around, enclosing her in a tight, protective circle. Some might wonder why they bothered. After all, the project is, by the Mountain Valley Pipeline company’s estimate, 94 percent complete and will be wrapped up before summer. It stalled for several years amid legal fights over various permits, but Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, almost single-handedly revived it in 2022 in exchange for his support of key Democratic priorities. Since then, the Biden administration and the Supreme Court have all but assured its completion. With the approximately 303-mile pipeline approaching the final stretch after almost a decade’s work, it might seem hardly worth fighting at this point. A large contingent of steadfast opposition begs to differ — and will enthusiastically explain why. The pipeline is six years behind schedule, about half a billion dollars over budget, and, despite promises that it would be done by the end of last year, delayed once again. The remaining construction is over rugged terrain, with hundreds of water crossings left to bridge. The company recently postponed, shortened, and rerouted its planned extension into North Carolina, a proposal long stymied by permitting problems with the main line. And, just last month, Equitrans, which owns the pipeline and many others across the country, was said to be considering selling itself. The road to the pipeline’s completion remains rocky, its opponents argue, with many opportunities to make finishing it as difficult as possible. “We cannot let them destroy our land and water,” said a young woman named Ericka. Like many interviewed for this story, she gave only her first name out of fear of reprisal from Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC, which has begun suing protesters in a bid to silence them. She had brought her three children to occupy the land that day. “What are we going to drink? Where are we going to live? People have to come here and stop this.” Killing the project is their ideal outcome. Barring that, those who have for almost a decade packed public hearings, spent weeks at sit-ins and even lived high in trees for 932 days want to make building pipelines so time-consuming, so expensive, so plain annoying, that fossil fuel companies and the politicians who support them think twice about green-lighting any more. Even as pipeline crews continue steadily boring under rivers and felling trees, activists say each day they can delay construction is another day humanity delays the worst impacts of climate change. The increasingly grave personal and legal risks they face are, they say, worth it, if only for that. “For five f—g years, we’ve fought you without fear,” sang the masked figures on Peters Mountain, and “we’ll fight you for five f—g more.” The pipeline workers retreated, mostly without complaint — followed by the protestors’ calls of, “Paid time off! Paid time off!” Some of those gathered began to sing: John Prine songs about beautiful landscapes stripped for coal, union songs, and striking miners’ ballads that reverberated through the same ridges long ago. When their voices grew weary, someone blared dance music through a loudspeaker as police cars rumbled up the gravel access road. They tried not to be afraid as the sirens grew louder, knowing the risk they had taken in coming here and knowing, as many said, that the time of act is now. Jammie Hale is a bespectacled and bearded 51-year-old from Giles County, Virginia. Before he joined the campaign to stop the pipeline five and a half years ago, he was depressed and struggling with addiction. It didn’t help that the ruckus of construction invaded his waking and sleeping hours as it got closer and closer to his home, which lies within the 500-foot blast zone that could level his house in an explosion. “After a while, you hear all that, it kind of gets under your skin,” he said with a gentle intensity. “You build these angers up inside you, and how do you release these angers? Through self harm?” He became sleepless, consumed with visions of his family, and the land he plans to deed to his children, going up in flames. When people began to organize, he and others in the community joined in. He found a will to live in the work. “I’m five years sober because of this project,” Hale said. “Because, you know, I wanted to be useful.” These days, Hale supports protestors from afar by making signs and sharing food, among other things. There’s still some risk, he says, but if he lands in a cell or a courtroom, so be it. “I’m not scared,” he said. “It’s kind of strange that they’re trying to get people for trespassing when they are the ones that have been trespassing.” Another longtime pipeline fighter who goes by Larkin is no stranger to arrests, or to supporting people whose civil disobedience has landed them in court time and again. A soft-spoken health care worker from nearby Blacksburg, Virginia, Larkin, who is in her late 30s, has been fighting resource extraction in Appalachia since she was a teenager. She spent the better part of a decade marching onto dusty strip mines, locking herself to equipment, and demanding a federal ban on mountaintop-removal coal mining. Ten years ago, that energy shifted toward the region’s multiplying pipelines. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline was proposed alongside the MVP; it met with similarly vehement opposition and eventually died amid mounting legal costs and project delays. In short, protest worked, Larkin said. One activist who goes by Gator had only just turned 18 and drifted north after a working-class childhood on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. He felt disconnected and adrift at a military high school, beset by a gnawing sense of climate apocalypse and a bleak future. “My home is disappearing,” he said bluntly. Gator found his way to the Weelaunee “Stop Cop City” occupation in Atlanta last summer. The connections he made there led him to the woods of Virginia and West Virginia, where he camped in the pipeline’s path and met people who shared his feelings of desperation and urgency. He felt himself cross a Rubicon of sorts during a stint in jail after his arrest at another demonstration. He spent several days locked up, not knowing how much time had passed and listening to guards mock the people around him. As he sat there on the cold, concrete bed, he knew there was no return to regular life, to regular expectations for himself.

Developers Seek Big Changes to the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Southgate Extension, Amid Sustained Opposition - Developers of the Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate extension are planning significant changes to the project intended to bring fracked gas from Virginia to North Carolina.According to a Dec. 29 letter from Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the pipeline developers intend to cut the length of MVP Southgate in half, have “substantially fewer water crossings” and eliminate the need for a new compressor station in Virginia. However, the project would also be physically bigger and carry more gas.The letter describing these changes came 10 days after FERC issued a three-year extension of the project’s federal certification. The pipeline’s initial approval included a construction deadline of June 2023, but due to delays, construction on MVP Southgate has yet to begin.Opponents have argued the new proposal is so different from the original plans that the initial certification should no longer apply.“It seems as if they think people are going to be OK with the project, just because they made some changes,” said Aminah Ghaffar, policy director for 7 Directions of Service, an Indigenous coalition based in Haw River, North Carolina, that is fighting the pipeline.In a statement, a spokesperson for MVP Southgate said the company is committed to the pipeline, and “intends to pursue all necessary permits and authorizations to complete the construction of this important energy infrastructure project.”MVP Southgate was originally intended to run 75 miles from Pittsylvania County, Virginia, into Alamance County, North Carolina, as an extension of the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline project. According to developers, MVP Southgate would meet the supply required for the Public Service Company of North Carolina (PSNC), the North Carolina subsidiary of Dominion Energy.Under the proposed changes, MVP Southgate would now stretch 31 miles, ending in Rockingham County, North Carolina.The diameter of the pipe itself would also increase, from 16 and 24 inches to 30 inches, allowing the amended project to carry more gas than the previous design. The proposal also increases the daily capacity commitments.“This is looking like a different project,” said Greg Buppert, senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center and regional lead for the organization’s work on natural gas. Not only will the increased capacity lead to more emissions, he said, but there is also a new, unnamed buyer that was not part of the original project, referred to in the documents only as an investment grade utility. The initial proposal only included PSNC.To Buppert, the combination of increased capacity and a new buyer indicate that the purpose of the pipeline has also changed. Based on additional filings in North Carolina, he suspects it may help support a newly proposed gas-fired power plant in the state. “The pipeline is larger, its impacts are different, and it’s serving a different need,” than when it was certified, he said, so that certification should no longer stand.When asked about the unnamed utility in the new plans, and if the project will be used to fuel a new power plant, MVP Southgate spokesperson Shawn Day repeated his earlier statement that “at the appropriate time, the MVP Southgate team intends to pursue all necessary permits and authorizations” to complete the project. MVP Southgate did not respond to a request for further clarification about the new utility or the purpose of the pipeline.

Antero Trying to Collect $11 Million from Former Employee | Marcellus Drilling News -Antero Resources is one of the largest drillers in the Marcellus/Utica (with major assets in West Virginia). As good and careful as companies like Antero are when hiring, sometimes there’s a rotten apple found in the barrel. Such was the case with a former employee who headed up the company’s operations in WV — where most of its drilling happens. The former employee took bribes and kickbacks from a vendor over a period of years (2012-2015), steering contracts to that vendor. The vendor’s performance was not as good as other competitors. At the end of years of litigation, Antero was finally awarded compensation from a jury, and a bit extra from a judge, to make up for the actions of their rogue employee (see Antero Prevails Against Corrupt Employee, Wins $12.9M at Trial). However, the employee has hidden the money in offshore companies, and Antero is still trying to collect.

Transco, TGP Granted FERC Approvals for Natural Gas Expansions -FERC on Thursday approved separate natural gas projects, including by Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco) and Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co. LLC (TGP), that would expand deliveries to the Gulf Coast and Northeast. Transco, a Williams subsidiary, received the green light for its Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway to serve rising demand for LNG from the Gulf Coast. The project received a positive environmental assessment in June. Transco plans to build a compressor station near Houston in Fort Bend County and it would modify existing stations in Hardin and Victoria counties. Construction is expected to start later this year, with a targeted in-service date in early 2025. Two Federal Energy Regulatory Commission members voted in favor of a certificate (No. CP22-495)

FERC greenlights pipeline projects despite Democratic rift - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved key pipeline projects Thursday during its first open meeting of 2024 — including a high-profile permit for the nation’s largest public power provider, which is seeking to transition away from coal.FERC voted to approve a permit for a 32-mile natural gas pipeline that would help fuel proposed gas-fired generation at the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Cumberland Fossil Plant. The commission also approved a Texas-to-Louisiana project by Williams Cos., which aims to expand an existing pipeline and boost gas flow to the Gulf Coast.Both decisions saw FERC’s two Democrats diverge. Acting Chair Willie Phillips voted in favor of all pipeline certificates, while Commissioner Allison Clements dissented in part on the pipeline for TVA and in full on the Williams project. Commissioner Mark Christie, FERC’s lone Republican, voted the same as Phillips on the two projects and other commission business. The outcome showed that the commission’s two Democrats aren’t bound to align on every vote as two FERC seats remain vacant. And it reinforced the continuing tussle over natural gas in major U.S. infrastructure projects.While proponents say gas has helped slash power plant emissions, many environmental groups are calling on the U.S. to phase out fossil fuels — and not lock in new developments that could be in place for decades. TVA, in particular, has been under pressure to speed up plans to lower emissions as President Joe Biden seeks a carbon-free U.S. power grid by 2035.The electric utility’s desired pipeline is part of a larger natural gas build-out. TVA has warned that if the pipeline were not built, it may have to keep some coal-fired generation online past its planned retirement date.“The proposed pipeline is crucial for staying on track with our plans to retire the first [coal-fired] unit at Cumberland Fossil Plant and replace that generation with a combined cycle gas plant,” TVA spokesperson Elizabeth Gibson said in an email Thursday.The public power provider, which serves Tennessee and parts of six neighboring states, “welcomes FERC’s decision,” Gibson said.Kinder Morgan’s Tennessee Gas Pipeline plans to build the pipeline.Kinder Morgan spokesperson Vicky Oddi said in an email that the company is “pleased with the Commission’s approval of the Cumberland Project certificate order at today’s meeting.”Environmental advocates have warned that the Tennessee project would continue climate-warming emissions and a reliance on fossil fuels. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) echoed those concerns in a post on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, as other FERC critics issued statements.“FERC commissioners moved to recklessly rubberstamp this project without fully evaluating the harm this unnecessary pipeline would do to families throughout the Tennessee Valley,” Amanda Garcia, a senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, said in a statement.The Southern Environmental Law Center has two lawsuits challenging the plant that are currently pending in federal court, the group said in its statement.Clements issued a separate full dissent on FERC’s decision to green-light the Williams’ Texas-to-Louisiana Energy Pathway project. It would add 364,400 dekatherms per day of capacity — a measure of heat — to its existing 10,200-mile Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line system, which serves more than a dozen states from the Southeast to New York City.Williams Cos. said in a statement to E&E News that FERC’s approval for the project “represents an important milestone” for “a critical project that will support reliability and diversification of energy infrastructure along the Gulf Coast.” Clements said during FERC’s open meeting that she disagreed “with this order’s determination that there are no tools available to assess a project’s greenhouse gas emissions.”“Second, and critically, there is insufficient record evidence to support the finding that the project is required by the public convenience and necessity,” she added.Clements said that the Williams’ request violates a 1999 certificate policy that governs FERC’s review of gas pipelines. That is a policy she said she wants to modernize “to address the complexities of the momentous energy transition now underway.”In a press briefing following FERC’s open meeting, Phillips said “we are currently using the 1999 policy statement, and it is working.”Richard Glick, former FERC commissioner and chair, passed a modernized FERC’s pipeline review policy that considered the climate-warming emissions from new gas pipelines in 2022. But Glick’s changes were revised into unenforceable “drafts” after FERC faced pushback from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and from natural gas pipeline groups. Glick left his post at the start of 2023 after failing to secure renomination.

Utilities plan onsite gas storage to improve reliability; critics warn of costs, safety concerns - As the U.S. electric power system has become more reliant on natural gas plants, it’s also become more vulnerable to gas system failures.During Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, about 18% of the anticipated power supply in the portion of the grid that serves the entire eastern half of the United States, called the Eastern Interconnection, was offline. Of the power plants that failed to perform, 47% were natural-gas fired, according to a joint inquiry by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.Natural gas fuel problems accounted for 20% of all generation outages, the report noted.However, in an era when building new gas pipelines, along with other infrastructure, has proven increasingly fraught, some utilities see a solution to gas shortages: adding liquified natural gas storage onsite. Virginia utility giant Dominion Energy is proposing to add liquefied natural gas storage to serve two large power plants it operates near Emporia in southern Virginia. The company also plans to build an LNG storage facility in rural Person County, North Carolina, which abuts the Virginia state line. And in South Dakota, Otter Tail Power Company is planning to add gas storage at its Astoria combustion turbine plant in Deuel County. A spokesman for Duke Energy, a large North Carolina-based utility company which was forced to cut power to customers during Elliott last year, said it is “exploring all on-site storage options, including LNG and other alternative fuel storage technologies for future use.” A 2021 study by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University found that storing gas onsite could also yield benefits for electric customers in New England, where gas supply is tight.Some pro-renewable energy analysts, though, are wary about the costs and impacts of adding new gas infrastructure at a time when cutting emissions to mitigate climate change is becoming ever more pressing. There are also safety and environmental concerns. Having backup fuel on site is common at many natural gas power plants, though the go-to option is typically a distillate fuel oil (like diesel), said Michael Caravaggio, director of research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute, an independent nonprofit research organization. The main advantage is ease of storage and management over a long period of time, whereas liquefied natural gas needs to be kept at extremely low temperatures, (about -260 degrees Fahrenheit). That means that adding LNG storage involves either liquefying pipeline gas onsite or transporting LNG in for storage in specialized tanks.“That’s a lot of infrastructure for backup fuel,” Caravaggio said. “The vast majority of the U.S. would likely pencil out with diesel and distillate oil as the onsite backup and that’s what we see currently.”

Chesapeake to buy Southwestern for more than $7 billion | Oil & Gas Journal - Chesapeake Energy Corp., Oklahoma City, plans to pay about $7.4 billion for Southwestern Energy Co. to create a natural gas producer with daily production slightly larger than that of Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. The proposed all-stock combination of Chesapeake and Southwestern will create an entity with more than 5,000 locations in Haynesville and Marcellus regions that today are producing about 7.9 bcfd. Chesapeake president and chief executive officer Nick Dell’Osso is slated to retain those roles at the merged company. Speaking to analysts after announcing the deal, Dell’Osso noted the flexibility the company will have when it comes to managing its combined 1.2 million net acres in Appalachia and 650,000 acres in the Haynesville. The organization, he said, will be able to appropriately move around production and capital while having more than 25 sales points in the Northeast and along the Gulf Coast for its products. The two companies’ teams have identified at least $400 million in possible annual cost savings, $130 million of which are expected to come from more efficient drilling and completion work. “The opportunity to improve upon the overall access to infrastructure of this combined portfolio is tremendous,” Dell’Osso said. “How we market our gas is not assumed as a synergy here but it is an enormous opportunity and something we expect to deliver really significant value out of.” Nick Pope at Seaport Research wrote Jan. 11 that “the deal makes strong operational and strategic sense” and estimates the two companies today account for about 40% of gross gas production in the Haynesville—combined, they are producing more than 4 bcf/d there—and nearly 20% of Appalachian production. Becoming “LNG-ready” is a major element of this planned deal: Dell’Osso said plans call for 20% of the merged company’s production to be tied to the fast-growing LNG export market. Analysts at Enverus Intelligence Research expect that roughy 10 bcfd of LNG export capacity will come online in the next 3 years and Andrew Dittmar, a senior vice-president at the firm, said LNG export growth “should tighten the gap between lower US natural gas prices and a stronger international market.” The planned union of Chesapeake and Southwestern is expected to close by mid-year, when its board of directors will grow to 11 members–seven from Chesapeake and four from Southwestern—and it will adopt a new name. The company will be headquartered in Oklahoma City but will retain “a material presence” at Southwestern’s main office in Houston.

Chesapeake and Southwestern Energy to Merge - Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company recently announced in a joint statement that they have entered into an agreement to merge in an all-stock transaction valued at $7.4 billion, or $6.69 per share, based on Chesapeake’s closing price on January 10, 2024. Under the terms of the deal, Southwestern shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.0867 shares of Chesapeake common stock for each share of Southwestern common stock owned at closing, the statement noted, adding that, at this exchange ratio and the respective share prices on January 10, 2024, the combined company would have an enterprise value of approximately $24 billion. Pro forma for the transaction, Chesapeake shareholders will own approximately 60 percent and Southwestern shareholders will own approximately 40 percent of the combined company, on a fully diluted basis, the statement said. The companies noted in the statement that the strategic combination will create a premier energy company underpinned by a leading natural gas portfolio adjacent to the highest demand markets, premium inventory, resilient free cash flow, and an investment grade quality balance sheet. The deal is accretive to all key financial metrics, the companies outlined in the statement. The statement also revealed that the combined company will assume a new name at closing and that its board of directors will increase to 11 members and will initially be comprised of seven representatives from Chesapeake and four representatives from Southwestern. Mike Wichterich will serve as Non-Executive Chairman and Nick Dell’Osso as President and Chief Executive Officer of the combined company, according to the statement, which noted that the combined business will be headquartered in Oklahoma City “while maintaining a material presence in Houston”. The combination has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies, the statement revealed. The transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions, including approvals by Chesapeake and Southwestern shareholders and regulatory clearances, is targeted to close in the second quarter of 2024, the statement added. “This powerful combination redefines the natural gas producer, forming the first U.S. based independent that can truly compete on an international scale,” “The union creates a deep inventory of advantaged assets adjacent to high demand markets, allowing for the application of proven operational practices and the power of an investment grade quality balance sheet to drive significant synergies benefiting energy consumers and shareholders alike,” In a statement sent to Rigzone, Andrew Dittmar, a Senior Vice President at Enverus Intelligence Research, said, “Chesapeake’s $11.5 billion acquisition of Southwestern (including debt) is the biggest gas-focused U.S. upstream deal in more than 10 years and reflects emerging confidence around the long-term outlook for the commodity”. “With its modest premium and increased exposure to the Haynesville by adding Southwestern’s high-quality acreage, plus financial accretion, the acquisition looks like a winning deal for Chesapeake,” Dittmar added. In the statement, Dittmar said Chesapeake is likely buying Southwestern in large part to add its 286,000 net acres in the Haynesville in Louisiana. “The acreage contains about 1,300 gross operated drilling locations capable of generating a 10 percent return at $3.50/Mcf gas pricing or less,” he noted. “Combined Chesapeake and Southwestern will be the largest producer in the Haynesville with over 4 Bcf/d gross operated production, and the largest gas producer in the U.S., jumping EQT,” he added. The Haynesville is particularly desirable as an area for Chesapeake to grow its exposure as the play combines high-quality drilling opportunities with proximity to a burgeoning market for gas to feed U.S. LNG exports, Dittmar noted. “Enverus expects LNG to increase its share of U.S. gas demand from 12 percent to 20 percent in 2030 and account for the majority of future demand growth,” he said in the statement. “There is about 10 Bcf/d of increased LNG export capacity coming online in the next 36 months that should tighten the gap between lower U.S. natural gas prices and a stronger international market,” he added. In a BofA Global Research report sent to Rigzone recently, analysts at the company said, “since speculation of a merger between Chesapeake and Southwestern Energy first emerged last year, we believe investor consensus overwhelmingly supported the logic”. “With the deal announced, we see the yet to be renamed NewCo amongst the most attractive rate of change opportunities among U.S. E&Ps, led by transparent synergies that we think have upside potential,” they added. “Critically, we see the combined company as the best route to position for what we view as a material change in U.S. natural gas dynamics. We reiterate our Buy rating on CHK, PO to $120/sh which excludes any upside from SWN pending completion - expected 2Q24, subject to shareholder approvals,” the analysts continued. In that report, the BofA Global Research analysts stated that they continue to believe the dynamics of U.S. natural gas markets are on the cusp of significant change as LNG demand raises the incremental clearing price for U.S. gas. “At a current forward curve holding around $4.00/mcf, we have discussed our view that the broader gas E&P sector is undervalued,” they added.

Chesapeake to become top US natural gas producer with $7.4 billion deal for Southwestern (Reuters) - Chesapeake Energy agreed to buy smaller rival Southwestern Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at $7.4 billion, a deal that will make it the largest independent U.S. natural gas producer. The deal disclosed on Thursday is a bet natural gas prices will stay off the multi-year lows they touched last year as demand from proposed new U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals jumps in 2025. "By combining our companies, we are LNG-ready," said Chesapeake Chief Executive Domenic Dell’Osso, who will hold the top job at the yet-to-be-named combined company. The purchase is expected to close next quarter. Expectations for rising gas demand from LNG exporters "created some impetus to move," Dell’Osso said on a call to discuss the deal. The new company expects up to 20% of its future production will be tied to international pricing, he said. Chesapeake's offer of $6.69 per Southwestern share represented a discount of about 3% to the stock's last close, according to Reuters calculation. Shares have gained about 2% since Reuters reported in mid-October on the deal talks. Shares of Chesapeake were up 6.2% in morning trading on Thursday. The larger output from the combined company "will improve the company's position ... as it relates to unlocking and securing additional LNG opportunities," U.S. gas production in recent years has jumped well above domestic demand, pushing inventories up and reducing profits at gas producers. U.S. gas on Thursday traded around $3 per million British thermal units. Average price last year fell 62%, opens new tab compared to 2022. The Southwestern bid is the biggest move to date in Chesapeake's efforts to regain its former stature as the largest U.S. gas producer since emerging from bankruptcy restructuring in 2021. Last year, it beefed up its position in the gas-rich shale plays of the U.S. northeast with a $2.5 billion buyout of Chief E&D. Investment firm Kimmeridge Energy Management, which pushed Chesapeake to move away from oil drilling, is "highly supportive of the merger," it said. The firm has a little over 2% stake in each company. Most of Southwestern's production is in Appalachia's shale formations in the U.S. East and in the Haynesville shale basin close to U.S. LNG export plants. The combined company will have production of about 7.9 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfepd), and leapfrog EQT Corp as the largest independent natural gas exploration and production company in the U.S. by market value and output. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter and bear a new name, ending the Chesapeake brand almost 35 years after its founding by wildcatters Aubrey McClendon and Tom Ward. Chesapeake shareholders will own about 60% of the combined company and Southwestern investors the rest. The deal is the latest in a spate of multi-billion consolidation in the U.S. energy sector as companies seek to secure future production. Among the recent combinations: Exxon Mobil's $60-billion pending offer for shale firm Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron's $53-billion agreement to buy Hess . Last week, APA Corp agreed to buy Callon Petroleum for $4.5 billion.

Permian to Partly Offset Natural Gas Production Declines from Gassy Plays in Early 2024, EIA Says - Shrinking volumes from gassy plays will overshadow higher associated output from the Permian Basin to drive a modest decline in natural gas production from key Lower 48 regions in early 2024, according to the latest modeling from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its updated Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), EIA projected 98.889 Bcf/d of combined production in February from the seven Lower 48 regions tracked in its monthly report. That would represent a 187 MMcf/d sequential decline from January output of 99.076 Bcf/d. Alongside the Permian, the DPR tracks production trends in the Anadarko and Appalachian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales.

EPA sets rules for proposed methane emissions fee for oil, gas industry | Oil & Gas Journal -- US oil and gas companies would pay $900/tonne this year for methane emissions exceeding certain levels under a proposed rule released Friday by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Methane Emissions Reduction Program, included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, includes the directive from Congress requiring EPA to impose and collect the emissions fees. The new Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) for methane applies to oil and natural gas operations that emit more than 25,000 tonnes/year (tpy) of CO2 equivalent, that exceed statutorily specified waste emissions thresholds set by Congress, and that are not otherwise exempt from the charge, EPA said. The WEC fee would jump to $1,200/tonne for 2025 emissions and $1,500/tonne for emissions in 2026 and later. EPA said the fee should encourage industry to adopt best practices that reduce emissions of the greenhouse gas to avoid paying. EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the proposed fee will complement other actions mandated by Congress, including the agency’s final rule on methane emissions issued in December. That rule includes a 2-year phase-in period for companies to stop flaring natural gas at new oil wells. As part of the broader methane-reduction programs outlined by Congress in 2022, EPA in partnership with the US Department of Energy (DOE) will provide $1 billion in financial and technical assistance to accelerate a transition to no- and low-emitting oil and gas technologies, including funds for activities associated with low-producing conventional wells, support for methane monitoring, and funding to help reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations. EPA is also working with industry and other stakeholders to improve the existing Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program and increase the accuracy of reported methane emissions. “EPA is delivering on a comprehensive strategy to reduce wasteful methane emissions that endanger communities and fuel the climate crisis,” Regan said in a statement. When finalized later this year, the proposed methane fee will set technology standards that will “incentivize industry innovation”' and spur action to reduce pollution, he said. Regan acknowledged that some oil and gas companies already meet or exceed performance levels set by Congress under the law and will not face the proposed fee. Over time, fewer oil and gas producers will face the fee as they reduce emissions in compliance with the rule, EPA said.

Kinder Morgan CEO Says Strong Natural Gas Production, Long-Term Export Demand Fuel Bullish Outlook - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) said its natural gas pipeline and storage business expanded substantially late in 2023 and is poised for continued growth in the year ahead. It expects to capitalize on robust natural gas production and expectations for exponential growth in export demand in the back half of the decade. LNG Prices The Houston-based midstream giant was first out of the gate late Wednesday in issuing its fourth quarter results. While the outlook is positive, fourth quarter revenues were dragged down by weakened natural gas prices. The full-year bottom line results also were adversely impacted by higher interest rates on its debt. This developed during a year in which the Federal Reserve, aka the Fed, aggressively pushed up rates to combat inflation ignited by pandemic-imposed...

EQT inks tolling deal with Glenfarne’s Texas LNG - US natural gas producer EQT has entered into a heads of agreement for liquefaction services from Texas LNG’s planned facility in Brownsville to produce 0.5 mtpa of LNG under a 15-year tolling agreement. The deal anticipates the finalization of a definitive 15-year tolling agreement from the first train of Glenfarne Group’s Texas LNG. Texas LNG said in a statement it plans to achieve financial close and begin construction in 2024. Moreover, the firm aims to launch commercial operations in late 2027 or early 2028, it said. Brendan Duval, Glenfarne CEO and Founder, welcomed EQT as a customer and partner for Texas LNG. “This is an important milestone for Texas LNG, with additional agreements to be announced in the near-term as we progress towards a final investment decision,” he said. Toby Z. Rice, president and CEO of EQT, said this HoA with Texas LNG “highlights continued momentum behind EQT’s differentiated LNG strategy, which is focused on achieving the best combination of upside exposure and downside risk mitigation.” Also, Rice added that this tolling capacity gives EQT “direct connectivity to end users of natural gas globally, allowing for end-market structuring flexibility and superior downside protection.”Texas LNG previously selected Swiss engineering group ABB and US energy services firmBaker Hughes to supply equipment for its 4 mtpa LNG project.The developer of the plant appointed a joint venture of Technip Energies USA and Samsung Engineering to lead the delivery of the facility.Texas LNG said in April last year that it expected to take the investment decision to build its LNG export project in 2023 following an order by the US FERC, but it later postponed the decision to 2024.FERC issued an order on remand to the planned export terminal in the Port of Brownsville, Texas, owned by Glenfarne Energy Transition’s Texas LNG, following the completion of an additional social cost of carbon and environmental justice analysis.

US weekly LNG exports reach 28 cargoes - US liquefaction plants shipped 28 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the week ending January 10, while natural gas deliveries to these terminals increased by 1 percent compared to the week before.The EIA said in its weekly report, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, that the total capacity of these 28 LNG vessels is 100 Bcf.The agency did not release its weekly report in the prior two weeks due to holidays. During the week of December 14-20, 2024, US terminals shipped 22 LNG cargoes.Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 0.1 Bcf/d week over week, averaging 14.7 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global.Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.2 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 5.4 percent (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.4 Bcf/d.The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the period under review.The Freeport LNG terminal Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass each shipped four cargoes, and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal and the Elba terminal each shipped three cargoes during the week under review.Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped two cargoes.One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between January 4 and January 10, the agency said.This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 63 cents from $2.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.23/MMBtu this Wednesday, the second day in a row Henry Hub was above $3.20/MMBtu, the agency said.The last time the Henry Hub price was at $3.00/MMBtu or above for more than one day was in early November 2023, it said.Moreover, the price of the February 2024 NYMEX contract increased 37.1 cents, from $2.668/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.039/MMBtu this Wednesday.According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2024 through January 2025 futures contracts climbed 14.2 cents to $3.008/MMBtu, with higher prices next winter pulling up the 12-month average.The January 2025 futures contract rose above $4.00/MMBtu on January 9, significantly higher than futures prices for all other months in the strip, it said.The agency said that international natural gas futures decreased this report week.Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia fell 12 cents to a weekly average of $11.44/MMBtu.Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 3 cents to a weekly average of $10.35/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending January 11, 2023), the prices were $27.67/MMBtu in East Asia and $22.02/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said

Exports drive North American natural gas pipeline projects | Oil & Gas Journal -- The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects North America’s LNG export capacity to increase to 24.3 bcfd by end-2027 from its current 11.4 bcfd. Growth will be driven by new LNG plants in Mexico and Canada and expansion of existing capacity in the US. EIA estimates LNG export capacity will grow by 1.1 bcfd in Mexico, 2.1 bcfd in Canada, and 9.7 bcfd in the US from a total of 10 new projects across the three countries. Five LNG plant expansions are under construction in the US. More than 20 bcfd of natural gas pipeline capacity under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) or Railroad Commission of Texas jurisdiction is under construction, partly completed, or approved to deliver natural gas to these five plants. About 12.2 bcfd of this capacity is currently under construction. Enbridge Inc. is building two pipelines, comprising the 4-bcfd Gator Express system, to deliver natural gas from pipeline interconnections to Venture Global LNG Inc.’s 20-million tonne/year (tpy) Plaquemines LNG plant south of New Orleans, La. Phase 1 of the project will be a 15-mile pipeline and Phase 2 a 12-mile pipeline. Enbridge’s 3-mile, 1.3-bcfd Venice Extension project will allow for reversal of natural gas flows on the Line 40 segment of its Texas Eastern Transmission (TET) system for delivery to Plaquemines LNG via Gator Express (Fig. 1). A 31,900-hp compressor station will be built in Pointe Coupee Parish, La., as part of the project. Kinder Morgan Inc.’s (KMI) Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) Co. is building the 13-mile Evangeline Pass Phase 2 pipeline to deliver an additional 1.1-bcfd to Plaquemines, also via Gator Express, from a Southern Natural Gas Co. interconnect in Mississippi. TGP and Southern last year received FERC authorization to begin building Phase 2. Construction of Evangeline Pass’ 900-MMcfd Phase 1 is ongoing. Expected in-service dates for each phase will be aligned with Plaquemine’s phased 2024-25 startup Golden Pass Pipeline LLC is expanding its existing 69-mile pipeline that originates northeast of Starks, La., by 2.5 bcfd to deliver natural gas to ExxonMobil Corp. and QatarEnergy’s 15.6-million tpy Golden Pass LNG plant in Jefferson County, Tex. The primary flow of the pipeline, originally built in 2010 to transport imported natural gas to interconnected interstate pipelines and northern US markets, will be changed to a southbound direction and connections to nearby natural gas supply sources added. ExxonMobil last month delayed startup of the LNG plant to first-half 2025 from second-half 2024. Port Arthur Pipeline Co. will build two 2-bcfd pipelines to deliver natural gas to Sempra Infrastructure’s 27-million tpy Port Arthur LNG plant, also in Jefferson County. The 72-mile Louisiana Connector will deliver natural gas through pipeline interconnections in Louisiana and Texas, and the 34-mile Texas Connector will extend from interconnections in Texas to the LNG plant. Late last year the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit vacated an emissions permit for the 13.5-million tpy first phase of Port Arthur LNG. The company said it will continue to build at the site while it works with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) on resolving the issue (OGJ Online, Nov. 16, 2023). Sempra earlier in 2023 had received US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorization to proceed with Port Arthur LNG Phase 2, adding two trains to the plant and roughly doubling its capacity (OGJ Online, Sept. 22, 2023). At the time, Port Arthur Trains 1 and 2 (Phase 1) were expected to be completed in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Enbridge Inc. is building twin 138-mile pipelines—the Rio Bravo pipeline—with a combined capacity of 4.5 bcfd to deliver natural gas from the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas to the 18-million tpy first phase of NextDecade Corp.’s 27-million tpy Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) plant under development in Brownsville, Tex. Enbridge started construction last year following NextDecade’s final investment decision on RGLNG (OGJ Online, Aug. 4, 2023). Rio Bravo’s first phase will transport 2.6 bcfd of gas from a new 282,000-hp compressor station in Kleberg County, Tex., and is expected to achieve commercial operation second-half 2026, assuming a 2025 construction start. Enbridge acquired Rio Bravo Pipeline Co. LLC from NextDecade in 2020. WhiteWater Midstream LLC is building the 39-mile Agua Dulce-Corpus Christi (ADCC) pipeline with a capacity of 1.7 bcfd to deliver gas to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s 10-million tpy Corpus Christi Stage III (CCL3) LNG plant expansion. ADCC starts at the end of WhiteWater’s 2-bcfd Whistler pipeline near the Agua Dulce hub in Nueces County, Tex., and will deliver Permian gas for liquefaction. The company expects ADCC to enter service in 2024. It will be expandable to 2.5 bcfd. Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline is also building its own 21-mile pipeline to supply the Stage III expansion, capable of delivering 1.5 bcfd. The pipeline will run parallel with an existing pipeline originating at the Sinton compressor station in San Patricio County, Tex., and will deliver gas from various interconnections. Compression at Sinton will be expanded by 44,000 hp as part of the project, using two Solar Turbine Titan 130E gas-fired units. Cheniere said late last year that CCL3 was months ahead of schedule and could achieve first LNG by end-2024. KMI also recently increased its South Texas presence with the late-2023 acquisition of NextEra Energy Partner’s STX Midstream (OGJ Online, Nov. 6, 2023). STX’s 462-mile pipeline system includes integrated, large diameter high pressure natural gas lines capable of delivering 4.9 bcfd of Eagle Ford production to Mexico and the US Gulf Coast. US natural gas exports to Mexico hit record highs at or near 7 bcfd in 2023. TC Energy Corp. plans to add to this with its 1.3-bcfd Southeast Gateway pipeline set to begin operations mid-2025. The company is building onshore infrastructure and landfalls—including 25 km of pipeline—and said that engineering of the project’s 690-km offshore section is complete, with installation expected to begin by end-2023 or early 2024. -

How Fracking Helped the U.S. Become the World’s Top LNG Exporter -In 2003, the late author and investment banker Matther Simmons predicted that with “certainty,” by 2005 the U.S. would enter a long-term natural gas crisis for which the only solution was “to pray.” T. Boone Pickens and a number of high-profile energy insiders concurred.ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil made large acquisitions of natural gas companies, betting on a future with much higher natural gas prices. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals were being built to help address the expected supply shortfall.By 2005, U.S. natural gas production had begun to decline. Natural gas spot prices regularly spiked above $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), and sometimes as high as $15/MMBtu.What happened next was unanticipated. Natural gas producers were experimenting with a combination of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling. Their success would change everything.Instead of an ongoing decline, by 2007 U.S. natural gas production was moving substantially higher. The industry was in the early stages of the largest expansion of U.S. natural gas production in its history.A decade later, natural gas production was 50% higher than the level in 2007. Today, it is 86% higher and still climbing. Along the way, LNG import terminals were converted into LNG export terminals, and many more were built.Natural gas expansion was so dramatic, that in 2016, the U.S. began to sharply increase LNG exports. At first, exports were a drop in the bucket compared to those of Qatar and Australia — the world’s two largest LNG exporters. But the rise was steep, and by 2022 it looked like a possibility that the U.S. could soon overtake those countries as the world’s largest LNG exporter. That has now happened, according to data compiled byBloomberg. Data through the end of December 2023 showed record U.S. exports of 91.2 million metric tons. The U.S. became the world’s leading LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Qatar and Australia.

Environmental Groups Target LNG in Election Year, Threatening U.S. Export Buildout -Growing environmental opposition and political headwinds could combine to be one of this year’s biggest challenges for U.S. LNG projects working to advance. International environmental organizations, along with grassroots groups, social media influencers and some Democrats, are stepping up their efforts to stop the expansion of U.S. gas exports that’s accelerated in recent years. The offensive comes in an election year, as President Biden looks to rebuild his support among disenchanted voters concerned about climate change.

Kansas City Fed Survey Shows Softened Natural Gas Price Outlook, Fourth Straight Activity Decline - Oil and gas executives in the Rocky Mountain and Midcontinent regions no longer expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to surpass $4/MMBtu at any point in the next five years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The Kansas City Fed conducts quarterly surveys to gauge current and expected drilling activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, as well as expectations for natural gas and oil prices. The district includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming, as well as 43 counties in western Missouri and 14 counties in northern New Mexico. For the fourth quarter 2023 survey, conducted between Dec. 15, 2023 and Jan. 3, 2024, executives were asked to predict the Henry Hub price in six months, one year, two years and five years. The average responses were $76, $79, $84, and $88 per barrel, respectively.Firms were asked what oil and natural gas prices were needed on average for drilling to be profitable across the fields in which they are active. The average oil price needed was $64 per barrel. while the average natural gas price needed was $3.12 per million Btu.

Oil and gas activity in US Midwest, Rockies falls in 4Q: Fed Survey -Oil and gas activity in the U.S. Midwest and Rockies fell sharplyin the fourth quarter, but is expected to recover over the next six monthsdespite a weak outlook for natural gas, according to a survey released on Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The drilling and business activity fell to -33 from -13, according to the survey, which polls producers from states including Colorado, Wyoming, Oklahoma and the northern half of New Mexico. Lower natural gas prices in last six months of 2023 likely pressured the drop in activity, Chad Wilkerson, a senior vice president at the bank said. U.S. gas futures plunged by 44% in 2023, while crude oil futures fell 11%, prompting a 20% drop in the total number of drilling rigs in the country last year. RIG/U Activity is anticipated to pick up modestly in the next six months, but survey participants expect profits to stay flat, hampered in part by lower natural gas prices. Henry Hub gas prices NGc1 are projected to average just $2.50 per million Btu in six months, below the $3.12 per mmBtu needed to drill profitably, according to the survey. “There is an abundant supply of natural gas, driven mostly as a by-product of oil drilling,” said an unnamed survey participant. Gas prices need to rise to $4.04 per mmBtu to spur a substantial increase in drilling, participants said, but they do not anticipate Henry Hub to average over$4 for the next five years. Henry Hub futures settled at $3.31on Friday, up roughly 8% ahead of extreme cold across much of the country. The outlook for oil prices was more upbeat, with respondents anticipating crude prices CLc1 to average $75 a barrel within six months, well above the $64 a barrel needed to make a profit. Oil prices would need to average $84 a barrel to substantially increase drilling, they said. U.S. crude futures settled at $72.68 on Friday. Only 40% of firms said they expect to increase capital spending in 2024, while roughly another 40% anticipate decreasing spending. “Lack of infrastructure will prohibit being able to develop and connect supplies to growing markets,” said one survey participant. The survey was conducted between Dec. 15 and Jan. 3 and included 31 responses from firms in the U.S. Midwest and Rockies.

US natgas prices plunge 13% on warmer forecasts for late January (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 13% to a one-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for demand to drop and output to rise once the weather turns warmer than normal in late January. Also weighing on prices, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants dropped on Monday to a three-month low. Still, spot power and gas prices soared to multi-year highs as extremely cold weather cut gas supplies and was on track to boost daily demand to a record high. "It appears that the run-up last week may have been overly reactive to news of the cold. As the adage goes, 'buy the rumor, sell the news' and today appears to be the latter half on full display," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates told customers in a note explaining the massive drop in futures prices. Last week, futures jumped about 15% for a second week in a row due primarily to worries about what this week's extreme cold would do to gas supplies and demand. The futures market is trading for February, when analysts said the country should have enough production and gas in storage to meet at least normal weather conditions without boosting prices much. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 41.3 cents, or 12.5%, to settle at $2.900 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Jan. 5 and the front-month's biggest daily percentage drop since it fell about 15% on March 6, 2023. In the spot market, power prices at the Mid-Columbia hub in Oregon soared to a record high of $1,075 per megawatt hour. Next-day gas prices jumped to $10.40 per mmBtu at the Eastern Gas South hub in Pennsylvania, their highest since July 2008, and $9.72 at the AECO hub in Alberta in Canada, their highest since February 2014. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, output fell by 14.9 bcfd from Jan. 8-15 to a 12-month low of 92.8 bcfd on Monday. That drop was less than losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February freeze in 2021. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would switch from colder than normal from Jan. 16-21 to mostly warmer than normal from Jan. 22-31. With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 154.1 bcfd this week to 138.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. On a daily basis, LSEG projected total gas demand, including exports, would reach 170.0 bcfd on Tuesday, lower than LSEG forecast on Monday but still exceeding the all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 14.4 bcfd so far in January from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas dropped to a three-month low of 11.7 bcfd on Monday due mostly to reductions at U.S. energy company Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.

U.S. natural gas prices fall 6% on small storage decline, warmer forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 6% to a two-week low on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal and forecasts for demand to drop and output to rise with the weather turning warmer than normal in late January. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 154 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 12. That was smaller than the 164-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a withdrawal of 68 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 126 bcf. Also weighing on prices, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell this week to a one-year low as energy firms likely sold some of their gas into the domestic market after extreme cold this week boosted U.S. power gas prices to multi-year highs in several regions. The extreme cold also cut gas supplies by freezing wells and increased daily gas demand to a record high on Tuesday. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.3 cents, or 6.0%, to settle at $2.697 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Jan. 3. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump 7.7 bcfd over the last two days to 98.1 bcfd on Thursday after plunging by 17.3 bcfd from Jan. 8-16 due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events to a 12-month low of 90.4 bcfd on Tuesday. That drop was smaller than losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February freeze in 2021. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would switch from colder than normal from Jan. 18-21 to mostly warmer than normal from Jan. 22-Feb. 2. With less cold weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 154.1 bcfd this week to 139.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas demand, including exports, soared to a record 168.2 bcfd on Tuesday. That was higher than LSEG forecast on Wednesday and topped the prior all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.9 bcfd so far in January from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to jump about 4.2 bcfd over the last two days to 13.5 bcfd on Thursday after dropping by 5.8 bcfd from Jan. 13-16 to a one-year low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to reductions at U.S. energy company Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana.

US natgas prices drop 7% to 3-week low on warmer late January forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a three-week low on Friday on forecasts for demand to drop and output to rise as the weather turns warmer than normal in late January and early February. That price drop came even though the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was rising after it fell to a one-year low during this week's Arctic freeze, which also boosted daily gas demand to a record high and cut output to a one-year low by freezing wells. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.8 cents, or 6.6%, to settle at $2.519 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Dec. 29. That put the contract down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since November. For the week, the front-month was down by almost 24% after rising about 15% in each of the prior two weeks. This week's price drop would be its biggest weekly percentage decline since it fell by just over 24% in a week in December 2021. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump 10.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 100.8 bcfd on Friday. It had plunged by 17.2 bcfd from Jan. 8-16 to a 12-month low of 90.5 bcfd on Tuesday, due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events. The drop earlier this week, however, was smaller than losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February freeze in 2021. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would switch from colder than normal from Jan. 19-21 to mostly warmer than normal from Jan. 22-Feb. 3. With less cold weather in the outlook, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 155.0 bcfd this week to 141.5 bcfd next week and 123.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas demand, including exports, soared to a record 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16. That was similar to LSEG's estimate on Thursday and topped the prior all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.9 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to jump about 4.7 bcfd over the last three days to a preliminary 14.0 bcfd on Friday after dropping by 5.8 bcfd from Jan. 13-16 to a one-year low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday, due mostly to reductions at U.S. energy company Cheniere Energy's LNG.A Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana.

North American Upstream Capex Inching Up, with Discipline and Shareholders Still Top Priorities - Natural gas and oil explorers worldwide are predicted to spend 5% more overall this year for upstream activity, with North American budgets rising for the third consecutive year. While upstream capital expenditures (capex) by global exploration and production (E&P) companies will climb, it’s predicted to sharply decelerate from the double-digit gains in 2023, according to Evercore ISI’s 2024 Global E&P Spending Outlook. Still, the “globally coordinated upturn is extending into the third year,” Evercore analyst James West said. The energy analyst team reviewed the financial and strategic documents for almost 300 global gas and oil companies to complete the survey, which was completed in December.

New Hampshire firefighters battle massive blaze after multiple oil tankers catch fire - New Hampshire firefighters are battling a massive blaze after multiple oil tankers caught fire on Saturday, the Exeter Fire Department said on X. Three oil tankers and a tractor-trailer at North Atlantic Fuels in Epping, caught fire, officials said, setting off a blaze large enough to require the assistance of a crash truck. A truck from Manchester-Boston Regional Airport arrived to provide foam fire suppression, the fire department said. A Southeast HAZMAT team with 500 gallons of foam also arrived to assist various fire crews on site. Video from the scene posted by the Exeter Fire Department shows burnt-out truck bodies engulfed in red-hot flames.Officials reported that there were no injuries.

Epping Fire Chief shares what he saw after intense North Atlantic Fuels fire — The town of Epping saw one of the largest fires in its history at the North Atlantic Fuels site Saturday evening. Hazmat operators responded to the scene while three oil tankers with 100,000 gallons of fuel went up in flames, additionally burning one tractor-trailer. Officials say that no one was inside of those vehicles at the time and no injuries were reported. In an interview with News 9, Epping Fire Chief Donald DeAngelis shares what he saw that night. “This was probably one of the most intense and largest fires in my career,” the chief said. Chief DeAngelis later said that a major risk was identified and called for quick action. “There were compressed gases at the next building over,” he said. “Had it gotten to the pressed gases, we would've had to evacuate the area or let it burn.” Firefighters were dispatched from communities in Wear, New Hampshire, to York, Maine. “It quickly went from a first to second, third, and fourth alarm,” DeAngelis said. “I couldn't have asked for a better outcome for a response and cooperation,” he added. Around 30 local communities came to help move other tankers that were at risk of catching fire, while also controlling the burning spilled oil. The New Hampshire State Fire Marshall's office says there was no suspicious activity involved in the cause of the fire. “We reviewed the videos. It doesn't look suspicious it looks like there was a failure in the truck,” Chief DeAngelis said. “That's our earliest insight.” The exact cause of the fire remains unknown. The New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services will be coordinating the cleanup process.

Officials investigating fuel spill in North Fort Myers canal — The Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is investigating after fuel was found in a North Fort Myers canal along North Gulf Circle on Monday. The Coast Guard was called to the canal in the Waterway Estates community. They determined a construction company working on a barge spilled fuel on the deck. The area received rain on Monday which helped float the oil off the barge and into the canal. The Coast Guard is determining whether to issue that company a fine. This isn’t the first time fuel leaked into this canal. In 2022, there was a different spill. The North Fort Myers Fire Control District investigated but never found a source. Codty Pierce, the Calusa Waterkeeper, said this could be a deadly mistake. It only takes a small amount of fuel to kill marine life. "Diesel fuel is considered to be one of the more acute toxic petroleum products that can be applied into the waterway, so anything that comes in direct contact with that does have the risk for you know dire consequences," Pierce said. "That’s when we start to see some fish kills, we can see a die-off of barnacles and oysters that are attached to the sea walls that are inside of a confined space." "Our estuary is our greatest asset so it’s up to us to take care of it and take ownership of it so when we see things like this, please don’t hesitate to call," Pierce said. "Do the right thing and report it." David Van Buren reported the fuel spill that happened on Monday. He lives on North Gulf Circle and witnessed the fuel spill in 2022. "In 2022 in June there was a fuel spill here and there were dead fish and crabs and there were small birds that were falling out of their nests and dying because of this -- the vapors from the diesel fuel," Van Buren said. "This is the second time there’s been a major oil spill right over here and it’s very frustrating, it’s aggravating."

A million gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf in November. We still don’t know where it came from. - Two months after an estimated 1.1 million gallons of crude oil were released into the Gulf of Mexico, the source of the leak remains unknown.The source and the cause of the spill, first reported Nov. 16, remains under investigation, the Coast Guard said in a statement Thursday. Without a clear indication of its source, a 67-mile Main Pass Oil Gathering pipeline operated by Houston-based Third Coast Infrastructure remains shut down. The investigation, which was expected to take weeks to complete, has dragged on for months, raising new questions about where the oil that caused a slick between 3 and 4 miles wide could have come from.An initial report made to the Coast Guard on Nov. 16 said a pipeline rupture near the mouth of the Mississippi River released a maximum of 1.1 million gallons into the Gulf of Mexico.“This is really unusual,” said Daniel Nagala, a longtime pipeline leak detection specialist and founder of Friendswood leak detection company UTSI. “I wouldn’t have expected it would take more than a week or two to find where it was, so I’m really surprised.”The Third Coast pipeline was initially suspected of being the source of the release some 19 miles off Louisiana, near the mouth of the Mississippi River. But despite the pipeline being shut down, a second sheen was discovered last month in the same area. The Coast Guard said it was unclear whether the second sheen was related to the initial spill.Oil found in the Gulf of Mexico can be coming from so many different places along a seabed dotted with old wells and pipelines, so it’s not uncommon for it to confound first responders, said Mark Davis, research professor and director of Tulane University's Center for Environmental Law. The Taylor Energy spill, for example — the longest-running oil spill in U.S. history, which began when Hurricane Ivan triggered a mudslide that swallowed a production platform — was at first believed to be small but hassurpassed the BP Deepwater Horizon spill in volume, he said.It took more than a decade to realize how much oil was slowly leaking from Taylor’s wells, he said.“Each spill is different, and understanding what kind of oil it is, where it’s coming from, who owns it and what can be done can be a real challenge,” Davis said.Plus, the crews available to continue these investigations are limited, he said. “It’s sort of like how many police are available to answer 911 calls,” he said. “At some point, the availability changes and the Coast Guard has other things that it’s supposed to be doing.”

Railroad Commission’s no fly zone in West Texas extended through June --Flight restrictions banning drones in the area of what the Texas Railroad Commission said was an uncontrolled well have been extended through June as state crews continue to work onsite, according to a notice issued Tuesday by the Federal Aviation Administration. Sarah Stogner, who identified herself as the drone pilot who inspired the original no-fly zone issued last month in Crane County, posted a new photo Tuesday showing large amounts of water pooling in the waste pits and trenches installed to contain the flow. Stogner said Tuesday that she was unaware of the new flight restrictions when she captured the images, which she said were taken at dawn. The Railroad Commission, the state’s oil and gas regulator, said in a statement Tuesday that the no-fly zone was extended “for the safety of crews on the ground.” It said last month that it requested the no-fly zone after “a drone pilot was flying a drone dangerously close to crews and equipment.” The new notice also lowered the 3,000-foot height restriction of the original no-fly order to 1,000 feet. “The June 9 flight restriction date is simply a placeholder,” an RRC spokeswoman said. “We do not anticipate work will take that long; we are currently plugging the well and as soon as the work at the site is complete, we’ll ask the FAA to cancel the restriction.”The eruption of water in Crane County is the latest sign of trouble under the aging oil fields just north of Fort Stockton. Water under pressure can travel underground — at times carrying radioactive elements, chemicals and other oil field waste — until it finds the path of least resistance, often an unplugged well that can allow it to burst to the surface.The Railroad Commission said Tuesday that tests of the water found no presence of oil or gas but it did not specify if other chemicals were identified. The RRC has not been able to identify a record of the well it is working to plug, it said. Bill Wight, a cattle rancher who owns the property where the Railroad Commission is seeking to stanch the flow of super-salty water belching from below the surface, said Tuesday that he was unaware that efforts to stop the water rising to the surface could continue until June.“I don’t know anything about it. The Railroad Commission doesn’t tell me anything,” he said. “I don’t think they have any idea how long they plan to be on the property.”

Earthquakes over magnitude 4 among smaller temblors recorded in Oklahoma – At least six earthquakes that include two greater than magnitude 4 have been recorded near an Oklahoma City suburb, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.The preliminary magnitudes of the earthquakes near Edmond include a 4.1 shortly after 5:30 a.m. Saturday and a 4.3 at about 9:45 p.m. Friday.The USGS had earlier rated the Friday night quake at magnitude 4.4 in a preliminary report.No injuries or significant damage has been reported, according to city of Edmond spokesperson Bill Begley, who said investigators will fully inspect infrastructure.“We are in contact with state officials investigating the occurrences, as well as the Corps of Engineers, who will inspect the dam at Arcadia Lake,” said a statement from Begley.Arcadia Lake is used to supply drinking water to the city of about 96,000. Four other earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2.5 to 3.2 were also recorded by the USGS Friday night and early Saturday in the area about 15 miles (24 kilometers) northeast of Oklahoma City.

Major Edmond earthquakes jostle odd Oklahoma history on regulation, litigation - Several earthquakes struck Edmond and shook surrounding communities Friday night into early Saturday morning, with a pair registering magnitudes above 4.0 and marking some of the state’s most prominent tremors since a surge in seismic events last decade triggered controversial litigation.The first trio of quakes hit between 9:37 p.m. and 10:04 p.m. Friday, with Oklahoma Geological Survey data eventually gauging their magnitudes as 3.2, 4.3 and 2.5.At 4:43 a.m. Saturday, another 2.6 quake occurred, and at 5:36 a.m. the ground twerked again for a 4.1 seismic shake. At 6:55 a.m., the OGS registered another 2.7 magnitude earthquake. Several other aftershocks registered at lower levels near a fault line spanning the Arcadia area, and Oklahomans took to social media to share their rattling experiences.“Did anyone else hear a loud boom and (feel their) house shake?” a woman wrote in the All Things Edmond group on Facebook around 9:40 p.m.Within 40 minutes, more than 800 comments had been made on the post. There and in other posts, people expressed shock, frustration and sometimes a sense of humor. Bill Begley, Edmond’s marketing and public relations manager, released a statement Saturday saying the city is “inspecting facilities and infrastructure.”“We are in contact with state officials investigating the occurrences, as well as the Corps of Engineers, who will inspect the dam at Arcadia Lake for impacts,” Begley said. “All new water and wastewater infrastructure in place as part of the city’s on-going water infrastructure improvements — including water towers — are built to structurally handle the seismic activity, but will be inspected to ensure their integrity and ability to continue to deliver safe, clean water to Edmond residents.”He said damage appeared to be minimal after early assessments.“Currently, police and fire report no incidents of safety or property impacts, but residents are encouraged to inspect their homes and structures for impacts and ensure they are safe,” he said.Similarly, Oklahoma Department of Transportation spokeswoman Brenda Perry Clark said no state highway or turnpike infrastructure was affected by the Edmond earthquakes, noting that the agency receives automated notifications from OGS based on local geology, magnitude and bridge condition. “These quakes did not reach those thresholds that require further inspection,” she said.

Meet the farmers pushing for stronger Colorado pipeline safety “We don’t want to be activists”: The farmers pushing for stronger pipeline safety rules --Colorado utilities regulators Wednesday will begin work on rules to improve safety inspections of pipelines like the one that leaked gas and destroyed Mark and Julie Nygren’s home. -- A pair of sugar beet and corn farmers would seem an unlikely duo to take on the oil and gas industry and the state’s biggest utilities over the issue of pipeline safety, but that is exactly what Mark and Julie Nygren have done.The Nygrens’ battle before the Colorado Public Utilities Commission is now close to bearing fruit as the commission is slated to take up draft rules Wednesday. The comprehensive pipeline safety regulations were required by Senate Bill 108.The new rules will come none too soon, state Sen. Tammy Story, a Democrat from Conifer who was a prime sponsor of the 2021 legislation, said. A Colorado State Auditor review in May found widespread shortcomings in the PUC’s inspection program.“The entire gas pipeline system as it relates to inspection and monitoring is an epic failure,” said Story, who requested the state audit.The Nygrens’ tale underscores those findings in human terms, as pollution from a leaking pipeline led to the destruction of their home and the loss of most of their belongings. “We are farmers,” Mark Nygren said. “We don’t want to be activists. We support the oil and gas industry. But what has happened to us should never happen to another family in Colorado.”An administrative law judge has recommended the commission adopt rules, including mapping the location of pipelines where possible and a Nygren proposal for an annual report by each operator listing the size and location of all leaks. Incidents currently aren’t required to be reported under federal and state rules unless they result in death or injury requiring hospitalization, property damage of at least $122,000, unintentional gas loss of 3 million cubic feet or more, or an emergency shutdown of a facility. The judge, however, rejected another Nygren proposal asking that operators be required to use advanced leak detection systems. The couple, in PUC filings, are still pressing the full commission to adopt the requirement. The story of how the Nygrens went from their Johnstown farm to appearing before the PUC began in 2016 with some dying trees in their yard. They had an arborist come out who thought it might be beetles. It wasn’t.Nygrens have farmed in Weld County for four generations and Mark and Julie moved to the farm adjoining his father’s spread in 1984 and there they raised their daughter and two sons, as well as a range of crops from barley to pinto beans to wheat. “After we discovered the leak a lot of things fell into place,” Mark Nygren said. The leak from a DCP Midstream pipeline was located April 2, 2019, when a bright green sludge and plume of gas vapors was found in a ditch across the road from the house.By this time, Julie Nygren said she and her husband had been dealing with a string of health issues including nerve pain, severe headaches and digestive problems, but they were told the leak was too far away to cause any problems. Three days after the leak was found an Xcel Energy inspector discovered that the couple’s basement was filled with explosive gas and soon a green sludge, similar to the substances across the road, was found near the home’s sump pump. The pipeline operator told the couple that the entire area needed to be remediated and that their home had to be leveled and their contaminated belongings carted away.The family’s possessions were hauled out to the front lawn for Mark and Julie Nygren to shift through. “We kept a few heirlooms that are now in storage,” Mark Nygren said, “but everything porous — clothing, beds, furniture — went to the landfill.”

Extreme cold weather causing oil spills in North Dakota; 60 reports over past week - -- Bitter cold weather is causing a rash of spills in the oil fields of North Dakota as well as a slowdown in production, regulators say. North Dakota has seen multiple days of frigid weather with windchills at times reaching as low as minus 70 degrees (minus 57 Celsius) in its Bakken oil fields. Regulators say that strains workers and equipment, which can result in mishaps that lead to spills. More than 60 spills and other gas or oil environmental problems have been reported in the last week, according to the state's spill dashboard. “This is probably the worst little stretch that I’ve seen since I took over the spill program” a decade ago, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality Spill Investigation Program Manager Bill Suess told the Bismarck Tribune. Public health is not at risk due to the remoteness of the spills, Suess said. The spills most commonly have involved crude oil and produced water — wastewater that is a byproduct of oil and gas production, containing oil, drilling chemicals and salts. Produced water spills can cause long-term damage to impacted land. Some companies are already engaged in cleanup despite the extreme cold, while others wait for the weather to warm. Suess said that given the extreme circumstances, the agency is giving companies some breathing room, but still expects the work to begin soon. “They can’t wait until spring thaw,” Suess said. “They’re going to have to get out there working on these in the next say week or so.” Production has declined during the cold spell, in part because companies are trying to prevent spills, said North Dakota Petroleum Council President Ron Ness. North Dakota producers are used to the cold, but “20 below is a different level,” Ness said. As of Wednesday morning, the state’s output was estimated to be down 650,000 to 700,000 barrels of oil a day, and 1.7 to 1.9 billion cubic feet of gas per day, said North Dakota Pipeline Authority Executive Director Justin Kringstad. By comparison, the state produced an average of 1.24 million barrels of oil per day and 3.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day in October.

Coast Guard responds to oil spill near Venice - The Coast Guard is investigating an oil spill off the coast of Plaquemines Parish. According to officials in the Coast Guard Heartland Office, someone in an airplane first noticed the spill on Wednesday and notified officials. Investigators later discovered that the spill was coming from a pipeline owned by the Texas Petroleum Investment Company. Coast Guard officials say TPIC secured and repaired the pipeline on Thursday, but not before an estimated 1,008 gallons of oil was discharged into the Gulf of Mexico. The pipeline has since been brought back online with no further leaks. According to the Coast Guard, there are no reports of injuries, wildlife, or shoreline impacts. Late Thursday, Coast Guard officials noted a broken 13-mile sheen with streaks of recoverable oil. Coast Guard officials say TPIC is coordinating cleanup efforts.

Can pumping CO2 into oil fields help stop global warming? – LATimes - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has signed off on a California oil company’s plans to permanently store carbon emissions deep underground to combat global warming — the first proposal of its kind to be tentatively approved in the state.California Resources Corp., the state’s largest oil and gas company, applied for permission to send 1.46 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year into the Elk Hills oil field, a depleted oil reservoir about 25 miles outside of downtown Bakersfield. The emissions would be collected from several industrial sources nearby, compressed into a liquid-like state and injected into porous rock more than one mile underground.Although this technique has never been performed on a large scale in California,the state’s climate plan calls for these operations to be widely deployed across the Central Valley to reduce carbon emissions from industrial facilities. The EPA issued a draft permit for the California Resources Corp. project, which is poised to be finalized in March following public comments. As California transitions away from oil production, a new business model for fossil fuel companies has emerged: carbon management. Oil companies have heavily invested in transforming their vast network of exhausted oil reservoirs into a long-term storage sites for planet-warming gases, including California Resources Corp., the largest nongovernmental owner of mineral rights in California.“CRC has been developing and operating subsurface reservoirs for decades in the state,” said Chris Gould, the company’s chief sustainability officer. “We have a deep and intimate knowledge of the subsurface characteristics.”“It’s kind of reversing the role, if you will,” Gould added. “Instead of taking oil and gas out, we’re putting carbon in.” In California, there are about a dozen applications — all sited in the Central Valley — that seek to collectively squirrel away millions of tons of carbon emissions in old oil and gas fields in exchange for government tax credits. But Greater Los Angeles is also “being evaluated” as a potential storage site, according to California Resources Corp. spokesperson Richard Venn.The new carbon sequestration sector could mark a drastic transformation for fossil fuel companies and the communities that have built their economies around them.Carbon sequestration projects capture CO2 from industrial sources and store them deep underground. In California, depleted oil reservoirs are expected to be used to store the planet-warming gas.The transition has been met with a mix of cautious optimism and extreme skepticism. But public leaders are scrambling to consider what this will mean for the future of their communities, including Kern County, where planning officials have published renderings and economic prospects for a hypothetical carbon management business park. “I know that there are people who are concerned that this is just a way for the oil companies to stay alive. And my answer is, yes, that’s actually true,” said Lorelei Oviatt, Kern County director of planning and natural resources. “At the end of the day, you want them to reinvent themselves, and no one seems to have any other good ideas on how we are supposed to keep our libraries open.”Others are more reluctant to welcome such a new industry.“I worry about the Central Valley becoming the repository of everything bad,” said Dean Florez, a member of the California Air Resources Board and native of Kern County. “Where did every prison go in the ‘80s? The valley. Where does all of L.A.’s [sewer] sludge go? The valley.”

Biden urged to use obscure law to thwart Pacific Northwest pipeline expansion - -- Environmentalists are urging the White House to use an obscure legal tool to thwart TC Energy Corp.’s planned expansion of a natural gas pipeline in the Pacific Northwest that they say would stoke climate change. The GTN XPress Project — which would boost capacity on TC Energy’s existing Gas Transmission Northwest pipeline by roughly 6% — won approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in October. But now scores of green and grassroots groups are lobbying the Biden administration to intervene, exploiting a little-known provision in the Clean Air Act that empowers a White House council to do a fresh review of the project. Nearly 150 organizations outlined their strategy in a letter Tuesday to the head of the Environmental Protection Agency and other top administration officials. The gambit presents a fresh test of President Joe Biden’s climate commitments — and another chance for him to bolster his green bonafides with voters before November’s election. Biden is under pressure to quash fossil-fuel ventures, including new liquefied natural gas exports, after alienating some supporters by authorizing a mammoth ConocoPhillips oil development in Alaska last year. FERC’s approval came after it concluded the proposed expansion would have a “minimal impact” on the environment. But the agency has drawn special scrutiny from activists who fault it for approving nearly all gas pipeline proposals before the commission in the past two decades. “There needs to be a change of course if the administration is actually going to make progress toward reducing our greenhouse gas emissions,” said Audrey Leonard, a staff attorney with Columbia Riverkeeper, which is part of the push. “This is a fantastic opportunity for the EPA to show its commitment to addressing the climate crisis and environmental justice issues.” If pipeline opponents prevail, the White House Council on Environmental Quality could broker a compromise over claims FERC ignored how much the project would boost natural gas production and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. That could prompt fresh scrutiny and even a potential project rejection. Though federal agencies have referred 28 disputes to the council since 1974, most were in the 1970s and 80s. Only two happened this century. Obscure laws can be powerful options: Environmentalists persuaded former President Barack Obama to block new oil development in US Arctic waters by invoking a once little-known 1953 statute weeks before leaving the White House.

Biden walks political tightrope on US oil boom - As U.S. oil production booms, President Biden finds himself on a tightrope between courting moderate voters and maintaining enthusiasm among progressives. Domestic oil production is projected to hit record highs this year. That fact could be used to parry Republican attacks on the administration’s energy agenda as Biden seeks reelection, but putting too much emphasis on it could also alienate the climate-minded voters who make up the Democratic base — and who already have mixed feelings about Biden’s energy record.Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, said the Biden campaign should not tout the fossil fuel production per se, but rather push back on Republican messaging about the president’s policies causing higher energy prices.“I think it’s critical for the campaign to aggressively rebut all of these zombie attacks that exist on Biden, including that he’s waged war on American energy,” Rosenberg said. “Everything the Republicans have been arguing about Biden in terms of energy policy is completely false and wrong, and we should rebut it.”Throughout Biden’s presidency, Republicans have accused his administration of “waging war” on U.S. energy production and raising gas prices.The Biden administration has placed some restrictions on drilling. These have included an initial pause on new auctions for the rights to drill on publicly owned lands, a rule requiring oil and gas producers on public or private land to cut their methane emissions, and a plan that offers companies fewer chances than before to acquire the rights to drill offshore.It has approved some drilling projects, however, notably including the massive — and controversial — Willow Project in Alaska.And despite the restrictions it has put in place, the administration has also overseen an increase in domestic oil production. This week, oil production for 2024 was forecast to hit a record 13.2 million barrels per day, compared to roughly 12.3 million barrels per day in 2019.Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, said that the U.S. is seeing higher production levels even in nontraditional oil production states like New Mexico than in Angola, which just left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). “That means the U.S. is leading the charge of additional non-OPEC oil that’s diminishing the market share for Saudi Arabia and most of the traditional OPEC members,” Kloza said. “In the U.S. it’s gangbusters, and in Canada it’s gangbusters as well.”

State and federal agencies respond to spill of light oil on North Slope - State and federal regulators are investigating the cause of a leak of light oil at the Point Thomson field on Alaska’s North Slope that was discovered Saturday.The leak, about 35 miles east of Prudhoe Bay, is estimated to be up to 275 barrels of liquid natural gas condensate, known as light oil.The product spilled from the 22-mile export pipeline that helps carry the light oil to market, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation said in an initial report Monday. The spill stretched about 225 feet long and 20 feet wide.Harvest Alaska, an affiliate of Hilcorp Energy that operates the pipeline, is the “potential responsible party,” the state report says.“We had fortunate weather circumstances,” said Kimberly Maher, the state’s on-scene coordinator for the response. “At this time, there’s no known impact to any wildlife in the area.”Preparations for the cleanup are being mobilized, she said.Hilcorp took over operation of the Point Thomson field in 2022 from ExxonMobil.Hilcorp also operates the giant Prudhoe Bay field on the North Slope after expanding quickly in Alaska in little more than a decade. Hilcorp has incurred a number of fines from state oil field regulators, who have multiple times called out the company for a track record of regulatory noncompliance.The leak was discovered Saturday evening by a leak detection system, said Andrew Limmer, vice president of Harvest Alaska, in a prepared statement.“We took immediate action by shutting down the pipeline and promptly notified the relevant federal and state agencies,” the statement said. “Currently, we are conducting a thorough assessment of the incident ... and response personnel have begun cleanup operations.”Harvest reported the suspected leak to state regulators early Sunday morning, about four hours after receiving the leak alarm, according to details from the state.Aircraft were used to confirm the leak on Sunday shortly before noon, the state report said. A ground survey crew provided more visual confirmation after that.Harvest Alaska reported that the maximum amount released from the spill is 275 barrels of condensate, the statement said.The maximum estimate is based on the full quantity of oil that the relevant segment of the pipeline can support, Maher said.The exact size of the spill is impossible to know right now, she said early Tuesday.The spill happened about a mile southeast of the Badami field, an area where the Point Thomson pipeline connects to the Badami pipeline.The Point Thomson pipeline was built about a decade ago.It’s a key part of the challenging Point Thomson field, which began production in 2016 after decades of regulatory and legal battles between the state and ExxonMobil over the lack of production. The $4 billion development of the field, located near the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, was heavily subsidized with state tax subsidies. The reservoir is highly pressurized, complicating the production of the condensate that is made from natural gas.In recent months, the field has produced less than 3,500 barrels of light oil daily, state records show. That’s a tiny fraction of overall North Slope daily production of roughly 470,000 barrels of oil.Harvest has “stood up” an incident management with a unified command that includes the Alaska conservation department and the U.S. Coast Guard.

U.S. Natural Gas Exports to Mexico Seen Breaking Records in 2024 - Mexico’s natural gas market will continue its modernization and expansion in 2024, regardless of who wins the presidential election on June 2. Natural gas demand in Mexico, driven by the power sector, continues to rise. Power demand was up by around 440 MMcf/d in 2023 to 4.603 Bcf/d, according to Wood Mackenzie data. Natural gas projects, including 12 combined cycle plants in construction, along with new pipelines, compressor stations and LNG export facilities, should give impetus to growth. Mexico’s healthy economy will add to this momentum.

ExxonMobil Agrees to Purchase More LNG From Saguaro Energia Export Project in Mexico - Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC (MPL) has signed another long-term agreement to sell an ExxonMobil affiliate more LNG from MPL’s Saguaro Energia export project under development on the country’s west coast. MPL said Tuesday it would sell 1.2 million metric tons/year (mmty) of the super-chilled fuel from Saguaro’s third liquefaction train to ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific for 20 years. The liquefied natural gas would be purchased on a free-on-board basis, allowing ExxonMobil to send cargoes anywhere in the world. ExxonMobil agreed early last year to buy 2 mmty from the project’s first two trains under an agreement that gave it the option to purchase additional volumes from Train 3. MPL said the latest agreement gives the company another option to purchase 1 mmty from Train 4.

Mexico Natural Gas System Operating Without Complications Amid Texas Freeze - Mexico’s natural gas system is standing firm amid bitingly cold weather in Texas that brought back memories of the 2021 winter storm that deeply impacted cross-border flows. On Friday night, Mexico power system operator Cenace declared a state of operational emergency on the national grid “due to the possibility of rationing of natural gas imported from the United States.” Mexico’s operator of the Sistrangas pipeline system, Cenagas, also issued a notice on its electronic bulletin board, advising clients to stick to their nominations. Mexico imports of natural gas were slightly lower over the last three days, but still above 5 Bcf/d and not too far off par for this time of year. On Tuesday, Mexico imported 5.546 Bcf from the United States, with South Texas accounting...

Design Change for Trans Mountain Pipeline Gets Canada Approval Trans Mountain Corp.’s application to use smaller pipes in a section of its pipeline expansion project was approved by Canada’s energy regulator, averting potentially “years” of delays in finishing a project that was scheduled to start this quarter. The application to alter the pipeline design in a section in British Columbia where the company faced challenges drilling through a mountain is subject to conditions, according to a filing on the Canada Energy Regulator website. The government-owned company must file a letter confirming mechanical completion of all permanent pipeline trap facilities at the north and south ends of the section seven days before the line is filled with oil, while the regulator also imposed conditions pertaining to inspections along the line. “Having thoroughly and carefully considered all written and oral submissions received, the Commission has decided to approve the Variance, subject to the conditions imposed relating to materials and in-line inspections,” a commission of the Canada Energy Regulator said in a filing. Trans Mountain warned in a hearing today that the project could face years of delay and billions of dollars of cost overruns if its variance application was denied. It was the second application filed for the changes, with the first being denied last month on environmental grounds. The expansion, which will almost triple the capacity of an existing oil pipeline running from Alberta to a shipping terminal near Vancouver, is already years behind schedule with costs that have quadrupled to almost C$31 billion ($23 billion). The line has been scheduled to start operation by the end of March. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government bought the pipeline in 2018 to save the expansion project from cancellation amid fierce opposition in the western Canadian province of British Columbia.

Alberta oil production rises to record that tops China's production - Alberta’s oil production rose above four million barrels a day for the first time in November as oil-sands companies ramped up output to prepare to fill the largest new export pipeline in more than a decade. Total production jumped by 336,822 barrels a day to 4.16 million barrels a day, the highest in data stretching back to 2010, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator’s website. Output over the first 11 months of the year averaged 3.79 million barrels a day, versus 3.73 million for all of 2022, the data show. Production is surging as oil-sands companies prepare for an expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline — which runs from the province to Canada’s Pacific Coast — to start up this year, giving them 590,000 barrels of new export capacity. Alberta’s oil-sands deposits represent the world’s third-largest crude reserve, and November’s production is more than all but four countries, edging out China’s average output in 2022 while trailing Iraq’s, according to data from BP Plc. Including output from Canada’s other provinces makes the country the world’s fourth-largest producer. Embedded Image The added Canadian production may weigh on global oil markets, which already are languishing under the weight of swelling inventories. US crude production is expected to rise 2.2 per cent to 13.2 million barrels a day this year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Eric Nuttall: Oil sentiment is 'deplorable' - Oil prices continued their losing streak Tuesday, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached US$68.9 per barrel late afternoon Tuesday.Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, told BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday that oil investor sentiment is “deplorable” and “back to historic lows,” noting that oil prices have sold off for about seven consecutive weeks.Nuttall said there are “massive diversions” in the market as fundamentals have weakened, while supply has grown more than anticipated amid strong demand and global inventories remain at their lowest levels since 2017.In light of these headwinds, Nuttall advised that oil investors look to specific companies in the year ahead.This spring, Nuttall predicted oil would hit US$100 per barrel by the end of 2023, but he has since revised that estimate as he looks to the year ahead.“We think oil should be looking at a fundamental floor of about $80 (per barrel), (with a) ceiling no higher than $90,” he told BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday. “We're using $80, it's our base case.” Nuttall also highlighted that LNG Canada should be operational at some point in 2024 – which he sees as a reason to be “bullish” on natural gas.LNG Canada is a joint liquefied natural gas venture made up of five energy companies. Bloomberg News reported in October that the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline was completed, indicating LNG’s project in Kitimat, B.C., capable of liquefying 14 million metric tons a year, is on track. Nuttall said he is bullish on the outlook for Canadian energy stocks in 2024, pointing to their strong balance sheets with regards to free cash flow.

Oil spill on Supr Tree Hill main road creates chaos | News | Jamaica Star -- A section of the Spur Tree Hill main road that links Manchester and St Elizabeth was sent into chaos earlier today after an oil spill lead to a five-vehicle collision. It is unclear what caused the spill, however, members of the Jamaica Fire Brigade were called in to wash off the street. Traffic has since been reduced to single lane - motorists and pedestrians are urged to use alternative routes and to observe and follow all road signs where possible.

Incomplete file stalls case against Trade Winds Citrus for Rio Cobre oil spill --The case involving the National Environment and Planning Agency and Trade Winds Citrus Limited relating to last month's oil spill in the Rio Cobre in St Catherine has been put off until March 23.When the matter came up for mention in the St Catherine Parish Court on Tuesday it was revealed that the case file was incomplete as several statements are outstanding.Trade Winds was charged for breaches of the Wild Life Protection Act following the oil spill on December 11, 2023.The company owns the Jamaica Beverage Plant from which the oil was emitted.

Argentina: New oil spill recorded off Bahía Blanca — Argentine authorities in the city port of Bahía Blanca in the province of Buenos Aires said a new oil spill had been reported after the one late last month. However, this time around the damage would have been controlled in less time, it was explained. The new spill Wednesday at 5.30 am was due to a malfunction in an unloading maneuver in the monobuoy operated by the company Oiltanking, which said in a statement that this time it acted more quickly to contain the leak. The incident also involved the tanker San Matías. ”The contingency plan for spills of hydrocarbons in water (PLANACON) was activated by notifying the Argentine Coast Guard (PNA), Bahía Blanca District,“ the document read. The accident occurred when a tanker was unloading crude oil through the monobuoy, which connects to a pipeline at the terminal. The crude is stored or sent by pipeline to different refineries, explained the company. It also mentioned that a pressure measurement element failed, causing a leak that was observed by company personnel on board, forcing an ”immediate interruption of operations“ and ”remedial work“ to be set in motion for the containment, control, and total removal of the spill. The company added that ”containment and control works were carried out on the slick by means of barriers and absorbent booms, in charge of the contractor company CINTRA, which contained the entire spill.“ Environmentalists and representatives of the fishing sector condemned the incident: ”Once again it happened at the Punta Cigüeña monobuoy in front of Punta Alta. As far as I know, this time the containment system worked, but, of course, it is never 100% what can be recovered, damage is always generated in the water,” said Lucas Beier, a legal representative of the artisanal fishermen, in a radio interview. The Environment Ministry of the province of Buenos Aires halted all operations by Oiltanking and requested an immediate review by the federal Energy Secretariat to determine if the company may continue operating. Sloppy maneuvering mooring the vessel Cabo Sounión to another Oiltanking monobuoy on Dec. 26 in the afternoon produced a spill but no action was taken until 3 pm the following day. As a result of that incident, the communities of Bahía Blanca and Coronel Rosales filed a criminal complaint against Oiltanking Ebytem S.A. Puerto Rosales Maritime Terminal. They claim that the company did not communicate the problem in time or properly activate the contingency plan. After the first episode, the company (which has been operating an oil pipeline in the region since 2008) began a remediation plan that is being reviewed by the Ministry of the Environment of the Province of Buenos Aires.

Argentina’s Vaca Muerta: 10 Years of Fracking and Local Resistance -- In 2013, President Cristina Fernández kicked off unconventional oil and gas fracking in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta geological formation. The year before, her government had renationalized the country’s largest energy company, buying back the state’s majority stake in Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales (YFP). Now, she hailed the opening of Vaca Muerta to foreign and domestic corporations as “the rational thing to do.”Ten years later, there is much fanfare around another expected hydrocarbon boom that may expand Argentina’s fossil fuel production to offshore drilling and the export of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Bahía Blanca and other ports. And the new far-right libertarian president, Javier Milei, who entered office on December 10, has proposed privatizing YPF as part of plans to “dynamize” the sector. The oil giant Tecpetrol is poised as the potential biggest winner in a potential selloff. In the face of these developments, the full story of Vaca Muerta offers an important warning about just how damaging another massive rush to extract fossil fuels in Argentina might be.Spanning roughly 30,000 square kilometers (11,500 square miles) across the Neuquén basin in northern Patagonia, Vaca Muerta holds the second largest shale gas reserves and the fourth largest shale oil reserves in the world, making it geologically comparable to the Eagle Ford Shale basin of Texas. Unconventional fracking of shale rock involves creating fractures by injecting chemicals, proppants, sand, and water at high pressure in vertical and horizontal directions, often thousands of feet from the wellhead. The impacts of this are tremendous. Since 2015, there have been 442 earthquakes in Vaca Muerta, and massive black plumes are ever-present across the horizon in the region. If the potential threefold increase in Vaca Muerta oil and gas production turns into reality in coming years, there would be a gigantic additional release of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.In Argentina and elsewhere, economic reliance on the hydrocarbon industry has been somewhat of a path-dependent curse. During an economic crisis in 2018, Argentina struggled to keep investment coming in. To keep foreign companies in the region, the government offered incentives to Big Oil in the form of generous subsidies and lowered labor costs. The companies stayed, and for the past two years, Vaca Muerta oil and gas production has climbedsomewhat steadily. Today, despite the growing global consensus on the urgent need to curb emissions and keep oil in the ground, fossil fuel boosters in Argentina and beyond have continued to push for speeding up extraction. In June 2023, Chevron pledged a $500 million investment toward exploration of the Trapial block in western Neuquén province, months after Pampa Energia had announced a $550 million investment in Vaca Muerta. Meanwhile, a YPF project seems to be getting fast-track approval by Rio Negro provincial authorities to transport oil—despite local opposition—from Vaca Muerta to a new port in Golfo San Matias along the Rio Negro coast, a pristine area where whales and penguins swim. In July 2023, the government inaugurated a segment of a gas pipeline, named in honor of former president Néstor Kirchner, that will eventually transport fracked gas from the Neuquén shale fields to southern Brazil. The same month, Argentina signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Union to set up massive exports of LNG via an alliance between YPF and Malaysian state LNG giant Petronas.

First Northern Lights LCO2 carrier gets tanks - Northern Lights JV’s first LNG-powered liquefied CO2 carrier has received two LCO2 tanks as construction on the vessel continues to progress in China.According to a statement by China’s Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (DSIC), these two type C LCO2 tanks are the first such tanks in the world.Each of the installed tanks has a capacity of 3,750 cbm for a total of 7,500 cbm.China’s Jiangsu Watts Energy & Engineering built these two tanks and will also provide sets of tanks for the three other Northern Lights JV’s LCO2 carriers, Watts Energy said in a separate statement.

The Netherlands Triples U.S. LNG Imports as Plans to Add Regas Capacity Continue - The Netherlands became the third-largest European LNG importer last year, after France and Spain, as U.S. liquefied natural gas imports flooded Dutch LNG facilities. With a planned expansion for the Gate LNG import terminal to 20 billion cubic meters (Bcm) annually, the EemsEnergy Terminal in Eemshaven’s current 8 Bcm/year capacity, and the proposed 7.2 Bcm Zeeland import project, the Netherlands could eventually hold 35.1 Bcm/year of LNG regasification capacity. The planned 20 Bcm/year Gate LNG capacity expansion is already rented out under long term commercial agreements and is expected to be ready for operation by the second half of 2026, said Marie-Lou Gregoire, spokesperson for Dutch network operator Gasunie Transport Services BV. The additional capacity will...

German Enviros Seeking to Prevent Venture Global’s CP2 LNG Approval - German environmental groups are urging FERC to deny authorization for Venture Global LNG Inc.’s CP2 LNG project, calling a further buildout of U.S. export capacity a threat to each country’s climate goals. In letters addressed to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Willie Phillips, 17 groups requested commissioners consider the Louisiana project’s impact on Calcasieu Parish communities. They also pushed back against the idea that projects like CP2 would be required to meet Germany’s energy needs following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “Several studies and analyses clearly show that the German plans for LNG import terminals – which are also pushing U.S. LNG export terminals’ plans such as CP2 – are massively oversized and threaten to torpedo our...

TotalEnergies issues force majeure over Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 project - French energy giant TotalEnergies has initiated a force majeure process on the Novatek-operated Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia due to sanctions.In November 2023, the US government issued new Russia-related sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, including for the Arctic 2 LNG project.“We have initiated the force majeure process in accordance with existing contracts, and we will comply with applicable sanctions regimes in accordance with our principles of conduct,” a spokesman for TotalEnergies told LNG Prime on Wednesday via email.“Consequently, no offtake of LNG from Arctic LNG 2 by TotalEnergies is planned in 2024,” he said.In March 2022, TotalEnergies said it would no longer provide capital and book proven reserves for the Arctic LNG 2 project due to the uncertainty created by the technological and financial sanctions on the ability to carry out the development.After that, TotalEnergies wrote down its 19.4 percent stake in Novatek and withdrew the representatives of the company from the board of NovatekTotalEnergies holds a 10 percent stake in the 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 development, and a 20 percent in Novatek’s Yamal LNG project.LNG freight rates, European prices drop this week - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued to decline this week, while European and Asian prices also dropped compared to the week before.Last week, Spark30S Atlantic decreased to $108,500 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific decreased to $80,250 per day.“LNG freight rates have fallen for the sixth consecutive week, with the Spark30S Atlantic, now assessed for 174,000-cbm 2-stroke vessels, falling below $100,000 per day this week for the first time in 5 months,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $25,000 to $83,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $14,250 to $66,000 per day. European prices drop In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also continued to drop this week. The NWE DES LNG for February delivery was assessed last week at $9.872/MMBtu and at a $0.855/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for February delivery is assessed at $9.081/MMBtu and at a $0.805/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.791/MMBtu decrease since last week and a $6.93 (43 percent) decline since the front month winter peak on October 13, 2023. Levels of gas in storages in Europe remain high for this time of the year. Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 81.77 percent full on January 10. In Asia, Chinese LNG buyers were on a spree late January 9 with some 6-8 cargoes changing hands following the sharp decline in Asia-Pacific spot prices, according to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. Platts said in a report, citing sources, these 6-8 cargoes that traded in China were scheduled for delivery from end-January to early March at $9.60-$10.60/MMBtu. Platts assessed on January 9 February JKM at $9.809/MMBtu, H1 February at $9.698/MMBtu, and H2 February at $9.920/MMBtu. This week, JKM dropped when compared to the last week. JKM for February settled at $11.245/MMBtu on Thursday.

Vopak, Transnet to develop LNG import terminal in South Africa - South Africa’s Transnet National Ports Authority has appointed Dutch terminal operator Vopak and its consortium partner Transnet Pipelines to build and operate a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility at the Port of Richards Bay. Both TNPA and Transnet Pipeline are part of South African rail, port, and pipeline company, Transnet, owned by the government of South Africa. Following a procurement process through a request for proposals, TNPA has appointed the Vopak & TPL consortium to design, develop, construct, finance, operate, and maintain the LNG terminal in the South Dunes Precinct at the Port of Richards Bay for a period of 25 years, it said in a statement. TNPA said the terminal is a partnership between the private sector and the public sector, with the private sector as the lead investor. Also, TNPA will invest in the common user port infrastructure, while the terminal operator will provide the terminal infrastructure. 2027 TNPA said this terminal is set to change the “economic dynamics of the port city, the KwaZulu Natal Province and introduce an alternative source of energy as South Africa battles an energy crisis and transitions towards decarbonization.” The firm said this project is the first of its kind in South Africa and brings TNPA closer to its strategic goal of assisting the country through this LNG import terminal and as a midstream LNG importation infrastructure for markets in the KwaZulu Natal hinterland. According to TNPA, project timelines will see the commercial operation during 2027, with the next step being the signing of the terminal operator agreement which is currently under negotiation. TNPA did not reveal any information regarding the LNG import terminal in the statement. According to TNPA’s tender documents issued in 2022, the LNG-to-power project must be designed to enable the realization of a minimum annual throughput of 1 million tons per annum scaling up to achieve a throughput of 5 million tons per annum by 2036. TNPA’s document show that the project includes an FSRU which would be located at Berth 207 in the port.

Falling LNG Prices Again Bring Asia’s Cost Sensitive Buyers Back to Spot Market - Asian spot LNG prices reached a seven month low in January, dropping below $10/MMBtu, bringing cost-sensitive buyers like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Thailand back to the spot market. High gas storage levels in Europe have pushed prices there lower and prompted liquefied natural gas sellers to turn their attention to Asia. Asia-Pacific “demand will continue to rise in 2024, supported by LNG spot price moderation and economic growth in the region,” according to a recent forecast by Fitch Ratings.

Himalaya’s LNG bulkers earned about $34,900 per day in December - LNG-powered bulker owner Himalaya Shipping achieved average time charter equivalent earnings of about $34,900 per day in December 2023.Following the conversion of the index-linked time charters to fixed time charters, all the company’s six vessels were trading on fixed time charters last month, Tor Olav Trøim’s Himalaya said in a commercial update.The vessels earned about $34,900 per day, gross, including average daily scrubber and LNG benefits of some $2,300 per day.According to Himalaya, the company’s cash break-even TCE is estimated to be about $24,500 per day.The Baltic 5TC Capesize Index averaged $37,333 during December 2023. In November, Himalaya achieved average time charter equivalent earnings of about $33,200 per day.Himalaya also confirmed that it had taken delivery of three 210,000-dwt Newcastlemax LNG dual fuel newbuildings from China’s New Times Shipyard.The company now took delivery of 9 of twelve vessels from New Times.The vessels, Mount Bandeira, and Mount Hua, will start time charters, initially expiring in December 2026, with an evergreen structure thereafter, while Mount Elbrus will start a 22 to 26 month time charter plus an option exercisable by the counterparty for a further 11 to 13 months.All vessels will earn an index-linked rate, reflecting a significant premium to a standard Capesize vessel, Himalaya said.Also, the time charters also include a profit sharing of any economic benefit derived from operating the vessel´s scrubber or running on LNG, as well as certain rights to convert the time charter to a fixed rate based on the prevailing forward freight agreement (FFA) curve from time to time, it said.

China's gas imports rose 9.9 percent in 2023 - China’s natural gas imports, including pipeline gas and LNG, increased 9.9 percent in 2023, according to customs data.Natural gas imports during the January-December period reached about 119.97 million tonnes, the data from the General Administration of Customs shows.China paid about $64.3 billion for gas imports in this period, a drop of 8.1 percent compared to the year before.Moreover, the country’s gas imports reached 12.64 million tonnes in December last year, a rise from about 10.95 million tonnes in November as demand in China increased due to winter heating season.There is currently no official data for LNG imports in December.China has overtaken Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer last year.China imported 62.99 million tonnes of LNG during January-November, up by 10.9 percent compared to the same period in the previous year, and up by about 3.14 million tonnes compared to Japan’s volumes.However, Chinese LNG imports fell in 2022 to due to very high spot LNG prices and Covid lockdowns, which affected economic activity.China’s LNG imports dropped compared to the January-November period in 2021 when China imported 71.36 million tonnes of LNG.

"They Are Snapping Oil From All Over The World": China Taking Advantage Of Recent Slide In Oil Prices - Incentivized by below $80 a barrel Brent oil prices, Chinese refiners are looking to import more crude to build up stocks at relatively low prices early this year, expecting strong demand for fuels in the latter part of 2024, analysts and trading sources told Reuters.International oil prices and China’s crude import quota policies early this year have made refiners more certain of planning their purchases.Brent Crude has traded below $80 a barrel since early December, having dropped from a 2023 high of $95 at the end of September.In addition, China also issued early this month a massive batch of crude oil import quotas to refiners for 2024, raising the allowances from early last year by around 60% and allocating full-year quotas to some. The high volumes of import allowances are expected to give independent Chinese refiners better visibility on their plans to purchase crude oil throughout 2024. So now refiners are looking to stock up on below-$80 crude early in the year in anticipation of a surge in fuel demand in the second half.“Chinese refiners, led by Unipec, are moving quickly this month,” an oil trader at a Chinese refiner told Reuters.“They snap oil from all over the world, except for the U.S. due to high freight rates.”Higher rates have made U.S. crude more expensive for Asian refiners compared to the crude grades from the Middle Eastern producers.So Asian buyers are turning to more Middle Eastern crude, especially after Saudi Arabia—the world’s top crude oil exporter—slashed the price of its crude for Asia for February loading by $2 per barrel to a premium of $1.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai prices, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude loading for Asia. That’s the lowest premium for Saudi crude over Oman/Dubai for 27 months—since November 2021. It’s too early to assess China’s oil demand this year, after a mixed bag of economic data throughout last year. But higher Chinese crude oil imports in early 2024, when demand is typically weaker, could support international oil prices.

QatarEnergy halts Red Sea LNG shipments - QatarEnergy, the second-largest LNG exporter globally, has halted the shipment of tankers through the Red Sea due to security concerns. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi group has been attacking ships since November in the Red Sea, a shipping route that accounts for about 12% of global shipping traffic, in what they say is an effort to support the Palestinians' war with Israel. QatarEnergy has chosen to retain at least four LNG tankers from shipping in the Red Sea. A senior source confirmed this decision while emphasizing that production activities persist. Specifically, the vessels Al Ghariya, Al Huwaila, and Al Nuaman from Qatar were heading to the Suez Canal but stopped off the coast of Oman on Jan. 14. Another vessel returning to Qatar, the Al Rekayyat, also stopped in the Red Sea on Jan. 13. Qatar transported more than 75 million tons of LNG in 2023, of which 14 million tons were sold to European buyers and 56.4 million tons were sold to Asia.

Maritime Intelligence Co Advises Clients to Suspend Red Sea Operations -- Maritime intelligence company Dryad Global advised all clients to suspend their operations in the Red Sea region for 72 hours on Friday, “in response to the recent NATO military operations in Yemen”. “The situation escalated with NATO forces launching airstrikes against Houthi targets, following a series of aggressive actions by the Houthi rebels,” Dryad said in a statement posted on its website. “These hostilities date back to 19 November 2023, starting with the hijacking of the commercial vessel, Galaxy Leader. Since then, there have been over 27 verified attacks by Houthi forces on commercial maritime operations,” it added. In the statement, Dryad noted that the military engagement, which it pointed out is distinct from Operation Prosperity Guardian, warrants caution. “The full impact and effectiveness of these airstrikes are still being assessed,” the company said in the statement. “In the interim, there is a heightened risk of Houthi forces seeking immediate retribution by targeting accessible vessels within their vicinity,” it added. “Given these developments, Dryad Global strongly recommends that clients refrain from entering or operating in the Red Sea near Yemen and the Gulf of Aden for a minimum of 72 hours,” Dryad continued. “This precautionary measure is crucial for ensuring the safety of personnel and assets until the situation stabilizes and a clearer assessment is available,” Dryad went on to state.

Chevron CEO says Red Sea risk to oil ‘very real’ -The CEO of oil giant Chevron on Tuesday warned the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea pose “very real” risks to oil flows and prices as Yemen’s Houthi rebels increase attacks against Israel and commercial shipping in the region.Asked by CNBC about what the Houthi attacks could be for the global oil supply, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth said, “Well, we watch it very closely. I mean, the safety of our people is the most important thing that we work on every single day. We have ships that go through the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea regularly.”“We coordinate every vessel movement with U.S. and other military authorities that are in the region, but it’s a very serious situation. It seems to be getting worse,” he continued.CNBC’s “Squawk Box” anchor Rebecca Quick pointed out U.S. crude oil was trading below $73 a barrel as of Tuesday morning and asked Wirth if he was surprised to see this.“It does [surprise me] because the risks are very real,” Wirth said. “And so much of the world’s oil flows through that region that were it to be cut off, you could see, I think, things change very rapidly.”The Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group, have waged a series of attacks on commercial and merchant vessels in the Red Sea, a major trade route for oil companies. The rebel group claims the attacks are part of a maritime campaign to protest Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in its war with Hamas, though attacks have been launched against multiple vessels with no ties to the Jewish State.The uptick in attacks in the region prompted the U.S. to launch counterstrikes on military targets in Yemen and the Biden administration is now weighing reimposing a terrorist designation for the Houthis. President Biden removed the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) label on the Houthis in February 2021 in the wake of concerns the label would prevent aid organizations and businesses from providing humanitarian assistance.“Nothing to update yet on the FTO designation,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Tuesday. “We’re still in the process of reviewing it.”The attacks have forced several oil companies, including BP, A.P. Moller-Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Llyod and CMA CGM, to reroute their movement in recent weeks, risking shipping delays and increased oil prices.British oil major Shell suspended all shipments through the Red Sea on Tuesday, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).Wirth said Chevron has been “able to maintain” movements throughout the region while noting it is an “evolving situation” “We really have to watch very carefully,” he said.

Repsol faces second lawsuit in Peru over oil spill - (Reuters) - Spanish energy giant Repsol faces a class action lawsuit with 30,000 alleged victims in Peru stemming from a major oil spill in 2022, the law firm representing the class said on Monday, as a small protest marked two years since the incident.The class action lawsuit is asking for a $1 billion judgment, local media reported.The oil spill is deemed one of Peru's worst-ever ecological disasters, after over 10,000 barrels of oil were dumped into the Pacific Ocean and on beaches by the Repsol-owned La Pampilla refinery.The spill sullied some 66 miles (106 km) of Peru's central Pacific coastline, according to Repsol's own tally, while causing significant damage to local fishing and tourist businesses as well as killing off scores of birds and marine life.The company is also facing an existing $4.5 billion civil lawsuit filed in Peru.The new class action suit is managed by London-based law firm Pogust Goodhead, which said in a statement that the lawsuit was filed in The Hague last week.The statement did not give the sum being demanded and the lawsuit is not public.Repsol's Peruvian subsidiary has previously said that it completed all cleaning and remediation tasks and allocated around $270 million in compensation to victims identified by the Peruvian government."We consider that this lawsuit has no basis," Repsol said in a statement late on Friday, referring to the new class action.Several dozen protesters visited the areas affected by the disaster, including Ancon beach north of the capital Lima, according to images from local television station Canal N, where people were seen waving large Peruvian flags and banners criticizing Repsol."This is one of Peru's worst environmental disasters and we will fight for justice for the victims," said Tom Goodhead, CEO and global managing partner of Pogust Goodhead, in a statement.

Shell to exit Nigeria's troubled onshore oil after nearly a century (Reuters) - Shell is set to conclude nearly a century of operations in Nigerian onshore oil and gas after agreeing to sell its subsidiary there to a consortium of five mostly local companies for up to $2.4 billion. The British energy giant pioneered Nigeria's oil and gas business beginning in the 1930s. It has struggled for years with hundreds of onshore oil spills as a result of theft, sabotage and operational issues that led to costly repairs and high-profile lawsuits. Since 2021, Shell has sought to sell its Nigerian oil and gas business, but will remain active in Nigeria's more lucrative and less problematic offshore sector. Shell's exit is part of a broader retreat by western energy companies from Nigeria as they focus on newer, more profitable operations. Exxon Mobil, Italy's Eni and Norway's Equinor have struck deals to sell assets in the country in recent years. The British major will sell The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) for a consideration of $1.3 billion, it said in a statement, while the buyers will make an additional payment of up to $1.1 billion relating to prior receivables at completion. "This agreement marks an important milestone for Shell in Nigeria, aligning with our previously announced intent to exit onshore oil production in the Niger Delta, simplifying our portfolio and focusing future disciplined investment in Nigeria on our Deepwater and Integrated Gas positions," Shell head of upstream Zoë Yujnovich said. The buyer, the Renaissance consortium comprises ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith, all local oil exploration and production companies, and Petrolin, a Swiss-based trading and investment company. The sale, which Renaissance confirmed, requires the approval of the Nigerian government.

Oil dips as rate outlook mutes Middle East risks, U.S. cold snap - Oil edged lower as fresh instability in the Red Sea and a U.S. cold snap that’s disrupting output was countered by a softer tone in wider markets. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as two per cent before paring much of the loss. European equities dipped as markets watch for clues on interest rates ahead of a raft of speeches by policymakers at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. In North America, extreme cold weather reduced oil production in some areas. U.S. equity markets were closed for a holiday. On Monday, a key trade group said it had been informed by the U.S. Navy that shipping in the Red Sea remains too risky, and it advised merchant vessels to avoid the route. Underscoring the warnings, Houthi militants hit a U.S.-owned commercial vessel with an anti-ship ballistic missile on Monday. Temperatures of -8C in North Dakota, home of the Bakken shale formation, reduced oil output by as much as 425,000 barrels a day. Extreme cold also descended on Alberta’s oil sands, where past cold snaps have resulted in production shut-ins. Global oil markets have been transfixed by the situation in the Middle East since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7. The strikes on the Houthis were in retaliation for the group’s harrying of ships in the Red Sea over the last couple of months. The Iran-backed militants have vowed not to let up until Israel ends its assault in the Gaza Strip. The price reaction suggests the market doesn’t, at this point, see a high chance that the evolving conflict will endanger crude production and flows from the wider Middle East, which accounts for around a third of the world’s oil. Instead, the prospect of rising supply from non-OPEC countries and slowing demand growth are helping to keep prices range-bound. “It is not our base case that U.S./U.K. strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and issues in the Red Sea will lead to a substantive upside in oil prices over the coming weeks,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Francesco Martoccia wrote in a note. “On the other hand, a possible escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and/or Iran, which the market believes may result in supply disruption, or actually results in supply disruption, is a larger concern in the near-term, though also not within our base case.” WTI for February delivery lost 0.4 per cent to US$72.42 a barrel at 1:44 p.m. in New York. Brent for March settlement fell 0.2 per cent to $78.12 a barrel.

Oil Slips as USD Climbs to 1-month High on Hawkish Fed Remarks -- Reversing an earlier advance, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange followed equity markets lower in Tuesday's afternoon session, pressured by a surging U.S. dollar as investors pared back bets for near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. At a Brookings Institute event in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that the central bank is "not rushed" to lower policy rates as has been the case in the prior rate cutting cycles. "A strong economy gives us the flexibility to move methodically and carefully," said Waller. U.S. economy dodged a recession in 2023 despite a slowing growth trajectory in the final months of the year. Meanwhile, the consumer price index eased from its peak of 9.1% seen in June 2022 to 3.5% at the end of 2023. Although still below the Fed's 2% target, the precipitous fall in inflationary pressures defied many forecasters over the course of 2023. The main concern for central bankers and market participants alike is not to ease monetary conditions too early and possibly reignite inflationary pressures. Following Waller's remarks, investors trimmed bets for a 25-basis point March cut in the federal funds rate to 65% compared to 76% seen in the previous session. U.S. interest rates futures still price in a total of six 25-basis point rate cuts in 2024. U.S. equities slumped at the start of the four-day trading week, with Dow Jones Industrial Average retreating 298 points and S&P 500 Index dropped back 0.5%. Meanwhile, the safe-heaven U.S. dollar surged 0.94% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at a one-month high 103.112. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery, the U.S. crude benchmark, slipped $0.28 bbl to settle at $72.40 bbl, and ICE March Brent nudged up $0.14 to settle the session at $78.29 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures firmed $0.0016 to $2.1219 gallon, and February ULSD futures slipped $0.0087 for a $2.6606 gallon settlement. Earlier in the session, the crude complex found tepid support from flaring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Iran launched a series of ballistic missile attacks at a military base in northern Iraq. The attack took place near the U.S. consulate in the Iraqi city of Erbil, the capital of the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan. The latest attack highlights the ongoing risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Iraq produced more than 4 million bpd or 4% of global oil at the end of 2023, according to estimates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the second largest producer in the Middle East, behind Saudi Arabia with output at 9 million bpd. While further escalation could inflame the region into a broader war in the oil-rich Middle East, to date, oil supply continues to flow through the Suez Canal-Red Sea corridor, the shortest transit route between Europe and Asia.

The oil market continued to trend lower on Wednesday on concerns over demand following weak economic data from China - The oil market continued to trend lower on Wednesday on concerns over demand following weak economic data from China. China’s economy in the fourth quarter expanded by 5.2% on the year, missing analysts expectations and calling into question forecasts that see Chinese demand fueling 2024 global oil demand growth. Also, the strength in the dollar continues to pressure the oil market. The market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading before it sold off more than 2.6% as it posted a low of $70.50 in morning trading. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced all of its earlier losses as OPEC kept its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024. It also said that 2025 will bring “robust” increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East, suggesting the market may be undersupplied. The oil market rallied to a high of $72.77 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up 16 cents at $72.56 and later posted a new high of $72.82 in the post-settlement period. The March Brent contract settled down 41 cents at $77.88. Meanwhile, the product markets ended mixed once again, with the heating oil market settling down 70 points at $2.6536 and the RB market settling up 1.35 cents at $2.1354. The EIA said retail gasoline prices in the U.S. could fall this year due to an increase in inventories and refining capacity, while reduced consumption could lower them further in 2025. The EIA sees diesel consumption likely increasing from last year in both 2024 to 2025, expecting it to grow by 1.3% or 50,000 bpd this year due to continued economic growth. In its monthly report, OPEC kept its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a "robust" increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East. OPEC said world oil demand will increase by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. For 2024, OPEC sees demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, which was unchanged from last month. The OPEC report also noted that OPEC oil production increased slightly in December led by Nigeria, despite ongoing output cuts by the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market. OPEC’s crude oil output increased by 73,000 bpd to 26.7 million bpd in December. OPEC adjusted its production figures lower to reflect the exit from the group of Angola. It said OPEC’s crude share of the world oil market was 26.5% in December. OPEC said the price decline in December was primarily driven by selling pressure from speculators. OPEC’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, said forecasts that oil demand is peaking will prove just as misguided as previous predictions that suply was reaching its end. The IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said the IEA expects oil markets to be in a "comfortable and balanced position" this year, despite Middle East tensions amid an increasing supply and slowing demand growth outlook. He noted that so far production has not been impacted by the attacks on tankers. He said that he did not expect a major impact on oil prices, unless one or more major oil producing countries were to get directly embroiled in the conflict. Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, said global oil markets will cope with Red Sea disruptions in the short run, although prolonged attacks by the Houthis on ships would lead to a shortage of tankers due to longer voyages and a supply delay.

Oil near flat as extreme cold's hit to U.S. output offsets China data - Oil prices were near flat on Wednesday as severe cold that disrupted some U.S. oil production offset disappointing economic growth in China that stoked worries about energy demand. Brent crude futures settled down 41 cents to $77.88 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) gained 16 cents at $72.56. In North Dakota, a top oil-producing U.S. state, below-zero degrees Fahrenheit temperatures caused oil output there to fall by 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), more than half its typical output, the state said. Those supply concerns caused U.S. crude futures to pare losses late in the session, after earlier falling by over $1 a barrel, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. domestic crude stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week - before most of the extreme cold set in - by about 300,000 million barrels, a Reuters poll showed ahead of weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the government, due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Weakening prices on Wednesday, China's economy in the fourth quarter expanded by 5.2% year on year, missing analysts expectations and calling into question forecasts that Chinese demand will fuel 2024 global oil growth. The economic data "doesn't end the headwinds over crude oil demand, the Chinese outlook for 2024 and 2025 is still bleak," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "(The) oil industry was backing the notion that, despite a bumpy recovery, oil demand from China has been resilient and will likely reach record levels in 2024." Still, China's oil refinery throughput in 2023 rose 9.3% to a record high, indicating elevated demand even if it lagged some analysts' expectations. Other signs of steady Chinese demand have also appeared. Investors kept an eye on naval and air conflicts in the Red Sea, which so far has not supported oil prices despite mounting concern about tankers having to pause or reroute, raising shipping costs and slowing deliveries. Tensions remained high after the U.S. mounted fresh strikes against Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen on Tuesday after a Houthi missile hit a Greek vessel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil markets to be in a "comfortable and balanced position" this year, despite Middle East tensions amid a rising supply and slowing demand growth outlook, its executive director Fatih Birol told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. An optimistic OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024. OPEC said that 2025 will bring a "robust" increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East. The U.S. dollar hovered near a one-month high after comments from Federal Reserve officials lowered expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. A stronger greenback reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers using other currencies.

International Energy Agency revises forecast for oil demand upward - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast larger oil demand in 2024 than previously projected in its monthly market report Thursday. This year, the agency projected, global oil demand is set to grow by about 1.24 million barrels per day, up from the 1.1 million it projected in December. Meanwhile, the IEA also predicted overall global supply will increase at a clip of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to a record high of 103.5 million barrels. An all-time high of supply driven by the U.S., Guyana and Brazil is projected to drive that growth, even as President Biden and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have pledged to reverse their predecessors’ fossil fuel-friendly energy policies. Demand growth for oil slackened year over year to 1.7 million barrels per day in the final quarter last year, down by nearly half from the previous two quarters, according to the IEA report. Overall, the agency projected growth this year will mark a decrease from 2.3 million barrels per day last year to 1.2 million, due to a combination of factors like electric vehicle proliferation and few if any remaining pandemic restrictions. OPEC+ issued far more optimistic projections Wednesday, projecting demand growth for the year at 2.2 million barrels per day and 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA notes that rising tensions in the Middle East could disrupt markets this year, particularly attacks by Yemeni Houthi militias in the Red Sea that have sought to disrupt seaborne commerce with Israel. The Middle East comprises about a third of the oil trade by sea and while the Houthi attacks have yet to affect oil and liquefied natural gas production, they have increasingly led ship owners to redirect cargo away from the Red Sea, with the most common alternate trade route around the Cape of Good Hope adding as many as two weeks to the shipping process.

The market was well supported by the IEA forecasting strong growth in global oil demand -- The oil market on Thursday continued to retrace its recent losses and ended the session over 2% higher. The market was well supported by the IEA forecasting strong growth in global oil demand and the EIA reporting a larger than expected draw in crude stocks. The IEA said it expects oil demand to grow by 1.24 million bpd in 2024, up 180,000 bpd from its previous forecast. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading in follow through strength seen on Wednesday after OPEC forecast demand growth of 2.25 million bpd for this year. The market erased some of its overnight gains and posted a low of $72.18 ahead of the release of the EIA weekly petroleum stocks report. However, the market bounced off that level and continued on its upward trend following the release of the inventory report, which showed a larger than expected draw in crude stocks of over 2.4 million barrels on the week. The market extended its gains to over $1.80 as it posted a high of $74.38 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up $1.52 at $74.08 and the March Brent contract settled up $1.22 at $79.10. The product markets ended the session, sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4 cents at $2.6936 and the RB market settling up 4.81 cents at $2.1835. The U.S. EIA reported U.S. weekly distillate stockpiles increased last week by 2.4 million barrels to 134.8 million barrels in the week ended January 12th, the most since August 2021. U.S. Midwest distillates stocks increased to the higher level since June 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 3.083 million barrels to the highest level since February 2022. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased to the highest level since March 2022. In its latest monthly report, the IEA made a further upward revision to its 2024 oil demand growth forecast on Thursday, citing improved economic growth and lower crude prices in the fourth quarter. It said global oil consumption is set to rise by 1.24 million bpd in 2024, up 180,000 bpd from its previous projection. The increase is largely driven by China's expanding petrochemicals sector. The revised forecast is its third consecutive upward revision in as many months for 2024 oil demand growth. However, it remains lower than that of oil producer group OPEC, which sees demand growth of 2.25 million bpd this year. The IEA said world oil supply in 2024 is forecast to increase by 1.5 million bpd to a new high of 103.5 million bpd due to record-setting output from the U.S., Brazil, Guyana and Canada. It said strong growth from non-OPEC+ producers could lead to a substantial surplus if OPEC+’s extra voluntary cuts are unwound in the second quarter of this year. It stated that barring any significant disruptions to oil flows, the market looks reasonably well supplied in 2024. The IEA said it stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption and the market needs extra oil. S&P Global Commodities at Sea is estimating total oil products into Europe over the first half of January fell by 20% due to lower seasonal demand and Red Sea tensions. Ship-tracking data shows that two oil tankers that had diverted away from the Red Sea have turned back and passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, though tensions in the region continued to disrupt global shipping and trade.

Oil edges up as twin Mideast strikes raise risk of escalation - Oil nudged higher as twin incidents in the Middle East underlined the region’s rapidly escalating tensions, which have already snarled global shipping and carry the potential for interruptions to crude production. Brent crude rose above US$78 a barrel. In Yemen, the U.S. struck more than a dozen Houthi missile launchers in its latest response to the Tehran-backed group’s repeated attacks on shipping. Elsewhere, Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes in Iran. Still, crude has seen a relatively muted reaction to growing tensions in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency said global oil markets are likely to remain reasonably well supplied this year. Despite the lack of activity in headline prices over recent days — Brent futures have traded in a six dollar band so far this year — there have been some bigger moves elsewhere. Key timespreads in the U.S. surged on Wednesday as a chunk of domestic production was curtailed by cold weather. Crude oil has spent the opening weeks of the year looking for direction, as the escalating crisis in the Middle East and bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later than had been expected have collectively pushed and pulled prices. Traders are also gauging the impact of supply cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. “The oil market does seem to have a general air of acceptance as to its current predicament of being boxed in,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM. “Until our current influences become more acute in nature, oil will continue its left-to-right chart movement and remain rangebound.” The industry-backed American Petroleum Institute, meanwhile, reported a small increase in nationwide U.S. crude inventories but a decline at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, hub. At the same time, it flagged increases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Official figures will be issued later on Thursday. Prices: Brent for March settlement traded 0.5 per cent higher at $78.24 a barrel at 10:19 a.m. in London. WTI for February delivery added 0.7 per cent to $73.07 a barrel

WTI, Brent Gain 1% WoW as Cold Snap Disrupts US Oil Output -- Oil futures nearest delivery slipped in market-on-close trade Friday, although both crude benchmarks registered weekly gains as investors responded to disrupted oil production in the United States following subfreezing weather this week, which also knocked refinery capacity offline in Texas. In North Dakota, about 650,000 bpd of oil production was shut in by frigid weather and heavy snowfall that caused wellhead freeze-offs, disrupting operations in Bakken basin oil fields. Some 280,000 bpd of oil production remained shut in Friday afternoon, according to the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, and it might take a month for the lost output to be brought back online. Before the disruption, North Dakota oil production averaged about 1.25 million bpd, with output reaching an all-time high of 1.52 million bpd before the pandemic in November 2019. The U.S. oil rig count fell to a 497 10-week low Friday, according to Baker Hughes. In financial markets, investors continue to reprice the path of the federal funds rate this year, reducing odds for a March rate cut to less than 50% after the latest reading of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan on Friday reported their U.S. consumer sentiment index surged this month to the highest reading since mid-2022 at 78.8, gaining a staggering 30% over the most recent two-month period -- the largest gain since 1991. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that "there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography." The headline inflation rate is currently running at around 3.4% -- a marked improvement from its peak of 9.1% seen in June 2022. In comparison, average hourly earnings have caught up with the inflation rate, surpassing inflation in the final months of 2023, averaging 4.1% in December. In plain terms, the American consumer's purchasing power improved as paychecks grew and inflation receded. December's retail sales data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau offers further evidence of the strength of the U.S. consumer, with nominal sales increasing by the most in three months, up 0.6%, while unemployment claims have tracked near post-pandemic lows. While the data is good news for the economy, it dashed expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which had priced a 25-basis point cut in the federal funds rate in March on expectations for softer economic growth and falling inflation. At a Brookings Institute event this week in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that the central bank is "not rushed" to lower policy rates as has been the case in the prior rate-cutting cycles. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate for February delivery on NYMEX eased $0.67 bbl to $73.41 bbl, with the March contract ending at a $0.16 discount to the spot-month contract. February WTI futures expire at the closing bell on Monday (1/21). ICE March Brent futures declined $0.54 to settle at $78.56 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures slipped $0.0207 to $2.1628 gallon, and February ULSD futures fell back $0.0315 to $2.6621 gallon.

Houthi Missile Hits US-Owned Cargo Ship in Gulf of Aden - US Central Command said Monday that a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile hit a US-owned cargo ship, an escalation that came a few days after the US and Britain bombed dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen. The missile struck the Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged shipthat’s owned by the US-based Eagle Bulk Shipping, while it was transiting the Gulf of Aden. CENTCOM said there were no casualties or damage reported. Eagle Bulk said there was “limited damage” but that the ship was able to leave the area. “As a result of the impact, the vessel suffered limited damage to a cargo hold but is stable and is heading out of the area,” the company said.The Houthis later took responsibility for the attack. “The naval forces of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a military operation targeting an American ship in the Gulf of Aden, with several appropriate naval missiles, resulting in precise and direct hits,” said Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea. Before Monday, the Houthis had not targeted US commercial shipping and said their attacks were limited to Israel-linked vessels. But that changed after the US and UK escalated the situation by bombing Yemen on Friday. After the strikes, a Houthi spokesman said that “all American-British interests have become legitimate targets.”The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have made clear their attacks on Israel-linked shipping wouldn’t stop until the Israeli onslaught in Gaza ends. Instead of pressuring Israel to end the slaughter, President Biden opted for regional escalation. US officials acknowledged that the bombing did not harm the Houthis’ ability to launch offensive attacks.The US and British airstrikes risk shattering the fragile truce between the US-backed Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and the Houthis, although Saudi Arabia has distanced itself from the anti-Houthi operations and is urging the US to show restraint. The US-backed war on the Houthis killed 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022, according to the UN. More than half died of starvation and disease caused by the brutal siege, which involved a major bombing campaign and a blockade on Houthi-controlled Yemen, where about 70%-80% of Yemenis live.

Tanker Companies Halt Red Sea Shipping After the US Bombs Yemen - President Biden’s decision to bomb Yemen has disrupted shipping in the region as several major tanker companies halted transits through the Red Sea after the US and British airstrikes against the Houthis.While container shipping had been disrupted by Houthi attacks on Israel-linked shipping, Red Sea oil and fuel tanker traffic had remained steady in December. But the tanker companies Hafnia, Torm, and Stena Bulk all halted Red Sea transits on Friday, and shipping data showed many tankers in the area turning around.The Combined Maritime Forces, a US-led coalition in the region, had issued a warning that advised ships to avoid transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for “several days.” Oil prices also spiked by about 4% on Friday following the US and British strikes.President Biden said he ordered the strikes in Yemen to preserve “freedom of navigation” in the region. But the bombing significantly escalated tensions and made the situation much more volatile as the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are warning of a major response.The Houthis have repeatedly stated they would halt attacks on shipping once Israel ended its slaughter in Gaza. Instead of pressuring Israel to lift the siege, President Biden chose regional escalation, a decision that has come under significant criticism from members of Congress who say the bombing was unconstitutional.US concerns about freedom of navigation ring hollow to the people of Yemen, as since 2015, the US has helped a Saudi-led coalition enforce an air, land, and sea blockade on Houthi-controlled areas, which is where most Yemenis live. The blockade has been eased since the Houthis and Saudis reached a ceasefire in April 2022 but hasn’t been fully lifted.The US-backed war against the Houthis killed 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022. More than half were killed due to starvation and disease caused by the bombing campaign and blockade.

U.S. Navy carries out new round of strikes in Yemen against Houthis - The U.S. Navy launched a new round of missile strikes against Houthi militants in Yemen, targeting about a dozen sites in a growing campaign meant to stifle repeated attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, U.S. officials said late Wednesday. Sign up for Fact Checker, our weekly review of what's true, false or in-between in politics. U.S. forces carried out the strikes on 14 missiles that the Houthis had “loaded to be fired,” military officials said in a statement released by U.S. Central Command. The missiles were on launch rails and “presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships and could have been fired at any time,” prompting U.S. forces to strike in self-defense, according to the statement. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the head of Central Command, said in the statement that the Houthis “continue to endanger international mariners and disrupt the commercial shipping lanes in the Southern Red and adjacent waterways.” “We will continue to take actions to protect the lives of innocent mariners and we will always protect our people,” Kurilla said. He called the militants “Houthi terrorists” in language that appeared to reflect the Biden administration’s decision, announced Wednesday, to put the militants on its list of specially designated terrorists. The strikes were carried out with Tomahawk missiles, two defense officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. At least one warship and one submarine were involved, the officials said. The new barrage, first reported by the Associated Press, marks the largest by the U.S. military since President Biden last week approved dozens of strikes in a single night after weeks of the militants carrying out attacks with ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones. U.S. forces also carried out smaller strikes on Saturday and Monday.

Houthis target tanker as Red Sea attacks continue - Houthi militants attempted to strike a tanker ship in the third such attack on commercial shipping in three days, U.S. Central Command said. The attempt late Thursday local time followed another round of U.S. strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship missiles that the United States determined “were an imminent threat” to commercial vessels and U.S. Navy ships. For months, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea in what they say is a protest of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, upending shipping routes and drawing international condemnation. President Biden said Thursday that the U.S. strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen are not working. “Are they stopping the Houthis? No,” he said in response to questions at the White House. “Are they going to continue? Yes.” Shortly after, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the strikes will continue for as long as they need to, “to disrupt and degrade the Houthis’ ability to continue to conduct these attacks.”Mexico and Chile referred the situation in Gaza to the International Criminal Court for investigation over “the latest escalation of violence, particularly against civilian targets, and the alleged continued commission of crimes.” Last week, Israel defended itself at the International Court of Justice against South Africa’s allegations it is committing genocide in Gaza.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday reiterated his rejection of Palestinian statehood in a postwar scenario, in comments that were rebuked by the White House. “We obviously see it differently,” Kirby said, noting that “we’re not going to stop working” toward a two-state solution.At least 24,620 people have been killed in Gaza and 61,830 wounded since the war began, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Israel estimates that about 1,200 people were killed in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack.

Houthis Attack US-Owned Tankers, 3rd Time This Week, As Biden Admits Failure To Stop -- The Pentagon has revealed than an American-owned commercial vessel has come under attack in the Red Sea. It happened Thursday, the same day that President Biden admitted the US-led Prosperity Guardian has not halted the attacks out of Yemen. "Are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes," Biden conceded in surprisingly blunt Thursday comments.The US-owned, Greek-operated Chem Ranger was targeted by a pair of anti-ship ballistic missiles, in what was the third such attack on international shipping in three days. "The crew observed the missiles impact the water near the ship. There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship," Central Command said. This follows closely on the heels of attacks on the US-owned Gibraltar Eagle and the Genco Picardy in the days prior, both which sail under Marshall Islands flags. The Houthis have declared that "we are now in direct confrontation with the US and UK" in the Red Sea, according to the Thursday words of Houthi chief Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.Not only has the Western coalition patrolling waters off Yemen attacked Houthi positions in four waves of strikes at this point, but the Biden administration put the Houthis back on the global terrorism list. None of this has deterred the Iran-backed rebel group, which has already been battling Saudi and US airpower in the Yemeni civil war that goes back to 2015.The resultant raised freight costs for the majority of big carriers choosing the more costly journey around Africa has continued the spur in Middle Eastern crude demand. For example, Bloomberg notes "The price of one of the Middle East’s most popular oil grades has jumped in Asia as buyers favor Persian Gulf producers that don’t have to send their crude via the Red Sea or on longer alternative routes"— in reference to Murban oil's premium surging...

Houthis' Offensive Capabilities Not Significantly Damaged by US Airstrikes - US and British airstrikes launched across Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen did not significantly impact the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks in the Red Sea, US officials have acknowledged to The New York Times.The Pentagon said the first wave of strikes launched early Friday morning targeted around 30 locations and destroyed 60 missile and drone sites. Early Saturday morning, the US launched another strike on a radar facility US officials said was missed in the initial attack. Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, the director of the US military’s joint staff, claimed on Friday that the US and British airstrikes were enough to stop the Houthis from launching a large drone and missile attack, but the US officials speaking to the Times said that wasn’t the case.The officials said the strikes only degraded about 20-30% of the Houthis offensive capability. They said much of the Houthis’ weapons are mounted on mobile platforms that can be easily moved and hidden and that finding targets was more difficult than anticipated since the US hasn’t been collecting much intelligence on the Houthis in recent years.The Houthis have downplayed the impact of the US and British airstrikes, saying five fighters were killed but only minimal damage was caused. Yemen’s SABA news agency reported another US and British bombing on Sunday, but US officials later denied that the US or its allies launched more strikes.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, endured a brutal bombing campaign launched by a US-backed Saudi-led coalition from 2015-2022, and they only became a more formidable fighting force during that time. The Houthis missile and drone capability significantly increased despite the air campaign and blockade, giving them the ability to hit oil fields deep inside Saudi Arabia.

US launches 4th strike on Houthis in Yemen -- The U.S. military launched more missile strikes against Houthi militants Wednesday, hours after the U.S. government designated the Yemeni rebel group a terrorist organization and the group continued its own missile attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea.Wednesday’s strikes are the fourth against the group in recent days, again targeting Houthi military installations and command centers in Yemen, The Associated Press reported.Houthis have attacked multiple civilian cargo ships with missiles in recent weeks, including multiple U.S.-owned ships and U.S. Navy vessels. The most recent incident was against the U.S.-owned M/V Genco Picardy in the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday.The Biden administration named the Houthis a Specially Designated Terrorist Group on Wednesday, implementing a sanction intended to hamper funding and support for the group.Former President Trump named the group a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a separate label, in 2021. That was later revoked by President Biden, citing the need for humanitarian aid amid Yemen’s decade-long civil war.

US Launches Fourth Round of Strikes Against Houthis in Yemen - The US launched another round of missile strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, marking the fourth time the US has bombed the country since last Friday.US officials told AP that the strikes were launched from US Navy warships and submarines. The attack came after the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, struck a US-owned cargo ship with a drone in the Gulf of Aden.Reports on social media said there were strikes in towns and cities across Houthi-controlled Yemen, including Hodeidah, Saada, Dhamar, and Al-Bayda. The Houthis control the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and govern territory where 70-80% of Yemen’s population lives.US Central Command later confirmed the strikes and claimed it targeted 14 “Houthi missiles that were loaded to be fired in Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.”The US strikes in Yemen have significantly escalated the situation in the region as the Houthis have expanded the scope of their targets to American commercial shipping. The Houthis have shown no sign of backing down in the face of the US military and have repeatedly stated they won’t stop attacking Israeli-linked shipping until the Israeli onslaught in Gaza ends.President Biden has come under significant criticism from some members of Congress for not getting authorization for the strikes on Yemen, but that hasn’t stopped him from continuing to bomb the country.

Houthis Attack Another US-Owned Commercial Vessel in Gulf of Aden - The Houthis have attacked another US-owned ship in the Gulf of Aden as the group is now targeting American commercial shipping following US and British airstrikes on Yemen.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Houthi forces targeted the Genco Picardy, a bulk carrier owned by the New York City-based Genco Ship Management, according to ship ownership data.Sarea said the attack resulted in “direct hits” on the ship. Officials told The Associated Press that the vessel was struck about 70 miles southeast of Aden and was hit with a bomb-carrying drone.Sarea said the attack was launched in “support of the plight of the Palestinian people and in solidarity with our brethren in the Gaza Strip, and within the framework of responding to the American-British aggression on our country.”Since the US and Britain bombed Houthi targets in Yemen last Friday, the US has launched two more rounds of strikes. But the Houthis are not deterred and are vowing they won’t back down. The strikes against them are only escalating the situation, as the Houthis were not previously targeting American or British shipping.The attack on the Genco Picardy marked the second time this week that the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, hit a US-owned vessel. Before the US and British airstrikes in Yemen, the Houthis made clear the only thing that would stop their attacks on Israel-linked shipping would be an end to the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. But President Biden chose escalation instead of pressuring Israel to end the siege.

Biden Says Strikes Against Houthis Aren't Working as US Bombs Yemen for 5th Time - President Biden acknowledged on Thursday that his strikes against the Houthis were not working to stop the Yemeni group but vowed they would continue anyway as the US military bombed Yemen for the fifth time within a week.The president made the comments when asked by a reporter if his strikes against the Houthis were working. “Well, when you say ‘working’ — are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes,” he said.US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that it launched more strikes in Yemen, claiming to target Houthi anti-ship missiles. “As part of ongoing multi-national efforts to protect freedom of navigation and prevent attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea, on Jan. 18 US Central Command forces conducted strikes on two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch,” CENTCOM said.Later on Thursday, the Houthis said they targeted another US-owned ship, the Chem Ranger, a Marshall Island-flagged chemical tanker. The Houthis said the attack resulted in “direct hits,” but CENTCOM said in its press release on the attack that the crew “observed the missiles impact the water near the ship.”The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have vowed they won’t back down in the face of the US military. Ansar Allah’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said Thursday that it was a “blessing” for the Houthis to be in a direct fight with the US. “We praise god for this great blessing and great honor — for us to be in a direct confrontation with Israel and America,” he said. Since Biden ordered the first strikes against them last week, the situation in the region escalated dramatically. The Houthis are now targeting American commercial shipping, hitting two US-owned cargo ships with missiles earlier this week, and more shipping companies have suspended transits through the Red Sea. Before the US escalation, the Houthis made clear they would stop attacks on Israel-linked commercial shipping only if Israel’s onslaught in Gaza ended, but President Biden is determined to continue supporting the slaughter of Palestinians.

US battle with Houthi rebels shows no signs of stopping --The Houthi rebels, unbowed by U.S. strikes, are continuing to attack ships in the Red Sea, putting the Biden administration in a bind as it works to stomp out the Yemeni militant group’s aggression and resume global trade operations. An initial series of strikes last week on Houthi assets in Yemen was meant to degrade the Iranian-backed group’s capabilities to keep up the Red Sea attacks, but the Houthis emerged intact and with a resolve to continue their aggression. The U.S. continued to strike the Houthis this week and the rebel group has responded with more attacks. All signs are pointing toward a prolonged conflict. But a drawn-out battle between the Houthis and the U.S. will only deepen global shipping disruptions, worsen a humanitarian crisis in Yemen and inflame the Middle East as Washington seeks to contain a wider regional war, analysts say. Like other Iranian-backed groups, the Houthis have tied their operations to Israel’s war in Gaza and pledged to keep fighting as long as Israeli soldiers continue their fight in the Palestinian enclave. “Americans want the seas to be safe for the support and resources provided to the Israeli enemy while starving the Palestinian people,” Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a speech Thursday shared on pro-Iranian Telegram channels. “We warn against weariness towards the oppression of the Palestinian people. The longer the siege and starvation continue, the greater the responsibility on our nation.” The top concern for the Pentagon is how to resume global trade through the Red Sea. Shipping prices are surging as companies are forced to avoid the Red Sea shortcut and go around Africa. But tit-for-tat attacks may disrupt transit through the corridor even more, scaring off ships seeking to avoid conflict, said Caroline Rose with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. “Their long-term plan is, of course, to try and secure this waterway,“ said Rose, director of the think tank’s Blind Spots program. “In the short term, it actually encourages ships not to use that waterway because of the increase in instability and insecurity.”

French Navy Plows Through Million Dollar Missiles To Defeat Cheap Houthi Drones -- A key reason that Yemen's Houthis are unlikely to halt their attacks on Red Sea shipping as well as Western warships parked there is because immense pressure on the global transit waterway can be kept up, while it costs little to persist with such launches.Many of the Houthis drones which are capable of reaching vessels far off the Yemeni coast have been estimated at not more than $20,000. Some of them are as low as a few thousand dollars to build. They can easily be intercepted by US and UK coalition warships, but at an immense cost for these Western militaries. Anti-air missiles fired from coalition ships are commonly estimated at over $1 million each. This means the Houthis can keep the attacks coming, and on the cheap while watching Western warships blow through expensive arsenals.This trend has been highlighted in a recent DefenseNews report which explored the high cost to the French navy of defeating the low-tech Houthi drones: France’s maritime commander for the Indian Ocean defended the use of million-euro missiles to down drones used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack shipping in the Red Sea, citing the value of the lives and assets protected, and the sophistication of the threat.The Languedoc frigate patrolling in the southern Red Sea in December shot down multiple drones using Aster 15 missiles, at a cost that defense analysts estimate at around €1 million (U.S. $1.1 million) per missile. The British Royal Navy’s HMS Diamond has also used the missiles to fend of drone attacks in the area.The report further underscored that "The economic calculus of ultra-capable interceptors, designed to counter expensive expensive anti-ship missiles or manned aircraft, quickly loses its appeal against drones costing thousands of dollars, analysts have warned."Still, commanders in the coalition are defending using these ultra-expensive missiles, saying all of this should be weighed in light of the necessary act of protecting valuable shipping lanes for Western economies.Likely, the more sophisticated drones within the Houthi arsenal come directly from Iran. Tehran also has an interest in seeing Western navies bogged down in the Red Sea, and all the while they can use proxies to do it.

When Yemen Does It It's Terrorism, When The US Does It It's "The Rules-Based Order" by Caitlin Johnstone - The Biden administration has officially re-designated Ansarallah — the dominant force in Yemen also known as the Houthis — as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity. The White House claims the designation is an appropriate response to the group’s attacks on US military vessels and commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, saying those attacks “fit the textbook definition of terrorism.” Ansarallah claims its actions “adhere to the provisions of Article 1 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide,” since it is only enforcing a blockade geared toward ceasing the ongoing Israeli destruction of Gaza.One of the most heinous acts committed by the Trump administration was its designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT), both of which imposed sanctions that critics warned would plunge Yemen’s aid-dependent population into even greater levels of starvation than they were already experiencing by restricting the aid that would be allowed in. One of the Biden administration’s only decent foreign policy decisions has been the reversal of that sadistic move, and now that reversal is being partially rolled back, though thankfully only with the SDGT listing and not the more deadly and consequential FTO designation.In a new article for Antiwar about this latest development, Dave Decamp explains that as much as the Biden White House goes to great lengths insisting that it’s going to issue exemptions to ensure that its sanctions don’t harm the already struggling Yemeni people, “history has shown that sanctions scare away international companies and banks from doing business with the targeted nations or entities and cause shortages of medicine, food, and other basic goods.” DeCamp also notes that US and British airstrikes on Yemen have already forced some aid groups to suspend services to the country.So the US empire is going to be imposing sanctions on a nation that’s still trying to recover from the devastation caused by the US-backed Saudi blockade that contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths between 2015 and 2022. All in response to the de facto government of that very same country imposing its own blockade with the goal of preventing a genocide.That’s right kids: when Yemen sets up a blockade to try and stop an active genocide, that’s terrorism, but when the US empire imposes a blockade to secure its geostrategic interests in the middle east, why that’s just the rules-based international order in action.

Iraqi leader dismisses US efforts in Middle East – — Iraq’s prime minister scoffed Thursday at U.S. efforts to rein in Israel’s military campaign against Hamas and lay out long-term plans for a more peaceful Middle East, noting that Israeli leaders aren’t onboard. In comments at the World Economic Forum, Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani dismissed in particular Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s more hopeful earlier remarks about how the crisis playing out in the Gaza Strip could be a chance to get back on track for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Blinken, who was in Davos on Tuesday and Wednesday, also stressed that doing so should involve broader efforts at improving Israel’s ties with Arab countries that have long shunned it. “That is nothing new, what Mr. Blinken has said. Everybody has said the same thing, basically,” Al Sudani said during a session moderated by POLITICO Global Editor-in-Chief John Harris. “What is being said by Blinken is refused by the Israeli government. Even the post-war scenario is refused from the Israelis.” “The international community has failed,” the Iraqi leader added. “The International organizations have failed. The international institutions have failed in this unjustifiable, unacceptable death that is unraveling before us in Gaza.” The remarks underscored the obstacles and skepticism the United States faces in the Middle East as it tries to rally countries to help it find a way out of the Israel-Hamas fight and broader regional tensions. Washington is trying to keep the battle from expanding into a full-blown regional war, but it’s also urging Israelis and Palestinians to start planning for post-war scenarios. That includes the critical question of who will govern Gaza, the scene of much of the fighting and which was long controlled by the militants of Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted U.S. plans that call for a reformed Palestinian Authority to eventually take over Gaza. The Palestinian Authority governs in parts of the West Bank, but Netanyahu has long viewed it as an unacceptable partner. Since Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people, the Israeli military response has killed more than 22,000 in Gaza, while displacing hundreds of thousands. Iraq is among the countries affected by the fallout from the crisis. That’s largely because of its ties to Iran, a major backer of Hamas and other militant groups in the region.

Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Strikes in Iraq and Syria - Iran said on Monday that its forces launched ballistic missile strikes in Iraq and Syria that targeted “spy headquarters and the gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups” as regional tensions continue to soar. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said the strikes in Syria targeted ISIS members who were involved in the recent bombing in Kerman, Iran, which killed 94 people. ISIS had taken responsibility for the January 3rd attack, which targeted a commemoration ceremony for Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by the US in 2020.The IRGC said the strikes in Iraq targeted “the espionage headquarters of Israel’s Mossad” in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital of Erbil. Multiple missile strikes were reported in Erbil near the US consulate, but there’s no indication the facility was hit. “No US facilities were impacted. We’re not tracking damage to infrastructure or injuries at this time,” a US official told ABC News. Iran did not specify why it targeted the alleged Mossad headquarters, but the strikes come about a month and a half after Israel killed a senior IRGC official in Syria. Iran has previously targeted the area in response to an Israeli attack, and Israeli assets are known to operate in Iraqi Kurdistan.In March 2022, Iran launched strikes in Erbil after an Israeli attack on a drone facility in Kermanshah, Iran. At the time, a senior US official told The New York Times that the building Iran targeted did serve as an Israeli intelligence outpost and training facility. The official and another US official said Israel is known to have conducted intelligence operations against Iran from Kurdistan. After Monday’s strikes, the Kurdish Regional Government denied the idea that there are Israeli bases in the region. According to Rudaw, which is based in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran’s attack on Erbil killed at least four civilians and wounded 17.

Iran strikes targets in northern Iraq and Syria as regional tensions escalate (AP) — Iran fired missiles late Monday at what it claimed were Israeli “spy headquarters” near the U.S. Consulate in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil, and at targets linked to the extremist group Islamic State in northern Syria. Four civilians were killed and six injured after missiles hit an upscale area near the consulate in Irbil, the seat of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, according to the security council of the Kurdish regional government. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that it had hit a headquarters of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Another statement said it had fired a number of ballistic missiles at “terrorist operations,” including Islamic State targets, in Syria and destroyed them. Israel did not immediately acknowledge the attack in Irbil and its embassy in Washington did not return a request for comment on the Iranian allegation regarding the Mossad. The strikes come at a time of heightened tensions in the region and fears of a wider spillover of the ongoing war in Gaza. As Israel-Hamas war reaches 100-day mark, here’s the conflict by numbers Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have launched near-daily drone attacks on bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, which the groups have said was in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel, and in an attempt to force U.S. troops to leave the region. The United States strongly condemns “Iran’s reckless missile strikes” in Irbil, said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. He said the attacks “undermine Iraq’s stability.”

Turkish air strikes target northern Iraq and Syria - Turkey’s military has carried out air raids against Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq and Syria. The overnight strikes destroyed 23 targets, the Turkish Ministry of National Defence said on Tuesday. The operation extends a recent escalation in violence across Turkey’s southern border, as regional tension continues to rise amid Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. The upswing in conflict began on Friday when nine Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters in northern Iraq. Ankara responded with air attacks and military operations in the area, as well as in northern Syria. The latest air strikes were carried out on Monday at 10pm (19:00 GMT) in the Metina, Gara, Hakurk and Qandil regions of northern Iraq, close to the city of Erbil, as well as in northern Syria. The action will ensure border security and prevent attacks, the ministry said. “Twenty-three targets were destroyed, including caves, shelters, tunnels, ammunition warehouses, supply materials and facilities used by the terrorist organisation,” the ministry said in a statement on social media platform X. Many fighters were “neutralised”, the post claimed – a term commonly used to mean killed or captured. The ministry also shared a video that it said showed footage from the operation. The PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union, took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the violence. Turkish forces regularly strike PKK fighters based in the mountains of northern Iraq. Syrian state media and other sources said on Monday that Turkey had carried out a wave of air attacks on electricity and oil infrastructure in Syria’s Kurdish-held northeast, putting several power stations out of service. Turkey has carried out a series of military incursions and bombing campaigns in Syria against the Kurdish People’s Defence Units (YPG), which it regards as a wing of the PKK. The tension spilling over from the war in Gaza is provoking increasing levels of violence across the region, and northern Iraq and Syria is one hotspot.

Israel-Gaza war live updates: Pakistan says it struck targets in Iran amid growing Mideast violence - Pakistan launched retaliatory strikes inside Iran early Thursday local time, its Foreign Ministry said, in the latest escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The attack in Iran’s Baluchistan region came two days after Iran struck targets inside Pakistan. The U.S. Navy launched a new wave of strikes against Houthi militants in Yemen, targeting about a dozen sites, U.S. officials said late Wednesday. Qatar said a shipment of medicine and aid entered Gaza as part of a deal, brokered by Qatar and France, under which Hamas would allow medicine to be transferred to Israeli hostages in exchange for aid to civilians in Gaza. Gaza remained under a telecommunications blackout on Wednesday night after a fifth day with almost no internet or phone access, according to the watchdog NetBlocks. The blackout “prevents people in Gaza from accessing lifesaving information or calling for first responders, and impedes other forms of humanitarian response,” the U.N. humanitarian affairs office said. Only one of three water pipelines from Israel into Gaza is working since the Deir al-Balah pipeline stopped functioning, the U.N. humanitarian affairs office said. Repairs could take up to four weeks “even if sustained access and the necessary supplies are allowed,” it said. At least 24,448 people have been killed in Gaza and 61,504 wounded since the war began, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Israel estimates that about 1,200 people were killed in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack.

Explaining the long-standing tensions between Iran and Pakistan - The Iranian drone and missile strike into Pakistani Baluchistan that took place earlier this week has resurfaced tensions that have complicated relations between the two states since the ayatollahs came to power in 1979. In particular, the Iranians have mistrusted Sunni-dominated Pakistan’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s rival for leadership of the Muslim world. Iran has also resented Islamabad’s support of the Taliban, which persecuted Afghanistan’s Shiite minority when it took power. Indeed, when Iran almost went to war with Afghanistan in 1998 after the Taliban killed a number of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif, Pakistan mobilized its own forces to support the Taliban. For its part, Pakistan has harbored suspicions about Iran’s cordial ties with its archenemy India. Islamabad has also resented Tehran’s efforts to politicize the country’s Shiite minority. Shiites constitute somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of Pakistan’s population. With the country often racked by instability, Islamabad cannot tolerate external meddling in its highly fractious politics. Crossborder terrorism emanating from both Iran and Pakistan has further complicated relations. Operating from their bases in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, the Jaish-al Adl and Jundullah militant groups have conducted numerous strikes against Iranian police and soldiers in Iran’s southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan. Iran executed the Jaish al-Adl’s leader in 2010, which further energized the group’s terrorist activities. Iran has been home to the Baluch Liberation Army, which has fought the Pakistan Army for decades. Tehran has done very little to restrain the group. This week’s Iranian drone and missile strike, which resulted in the death of two Pakistani children and the wounding of three others, infuriated the Pakistani public as much as it angered the government. But the attack, which took place in the town of Panjgur in Baluchistan on the Pakistani-Iranian border, reflected Tehran’s growing frustration with Pakistani-based terrorist attacks on its police and soldiers. Five Iranian border guards were killed in a terrorist attack last May in Zahedan, Sistan-Baluchestan’s provincial capital. Two months later, four policemen were killed while on patrol. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency claimed that its strike targeted and demolished “two key strongholds of the Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jaish al-Adl) terrorist group in Pakistan.” But in addition to the children killed, according to Pakistani reports, one of the Iranian missiles hit and partially damaged a mosque, injuring an further unspecified number of people. The Pakistanis were also furious that the Iranian attack took place shortly after Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar had met Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on the sidelines of the Davos World Economic Forum. The timing seemed to underscore Iranian duplicity. Islamabad characterized the attack as a violation of its sovereignty and ominously warned that “the responsibility for the consequences will lie squarely with Iran.” Pakistan did not specify what those “consequences” might be. They soon became clear, however. Two days after the Iranian attack, the Pakistani Air Force employed what the military described as “killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and standoff weapons” to attack militant facilities in Iran in what it termed Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar (“Death to Insurgents”). Nine people are reported to have been killed in the Pakistani strike.

Iraq, Pakistan Protest Iranian Missile Strikes on Their Territories --Iraq and Pakistan are both protesting Iranian missile strikes that targeted their territories in recent days as Tehran is defending its attacks. Iran said the strikes it launched in Pakistan targeted Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni Muslim militant group that operates across the Iran-Pakistan border and has a history of conducting terrorist attacks in Iran. Most recently, the group took responsibility for a December 15 attack on a police station in Iran’s southeastern city of Rask that killed 11.Islamabad strongly condemned the Iranian strikes in Pakistan and said two children were killed. “Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said.“This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences,” the ministry added. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, has also recalled its ambassador to Iran over the strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian defended the strikeson Wednesday while speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “None of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones,” he said. “The so-called Jaish al-Adl group, which is an Iranian terrorist group, was targeted.”Iran has said that its strikes in Iraq that were launched on Monday targetedalleged Mossad bases in Erbil, part of the northern Kurdistan region, likely in retaliation for Israel killing a senior Iranian military officer in Syria. Israel is known to have intelligence operatives and assets in the area, and US officials have acknowledged Iran struck a Mossad facility in 2022 strikes, but both the Baghdad-based government and the local Kurdish government said the Monday attack killed civilians.

In Gaza, the West Is Enabling the Most Transparent Genocide in Human History --“The West against the rest.” Although the article seemed far-fetched 30 years ago, it now seems prophetic in its discernment of a post-Cold War pattern of inter-civilizational rivalry. It is rather pronounced in relation to the heightened Israel/Palestine conflict initiated by the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli territory with the killing and abusing of Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers, as well as the seizure of some 200 hostages.Clearly this attack has been accompanied by some suspicious circumstances such as Israel’s foreknowledge, slow reaction time to the penetration of its borders, and, perhaps most problematic, the quickness with which Israeli adopted a genocidal approach with a clear ethnic cleansing message. At the very least the Hamas attack, itself including serious war crimes, served almost too conveniently as the needed pretext for the 100 days of disproportionate and indiscriminate violence, sadistic atrocities, and the enactment of a scenario that looked toward making Gaza unlivable and its Palestinian residents dispossessed and unwanted.Despite the transparency of the Israeli tactics, partly attributable to ongoing TV coverage of the devastating and heartbreaking Palestinian ordeal, what was notable was the way external state actors aligned with the antagonists. The Global West (white settler colonial states and former European colonial powers) lined up with Israel, while the most active pro-Palestinian governments and movements were initially exclusively Muslim, with support coming more broadly from the Global South. This racialization of alignments seems to take precedence over efforts to regulate violence of this intensity by the norms and procedures of international law, often mediated through the United Nations.Liberal democracies failed not only by their refusal to make active efforts to prevent genocide, which is a central obligation of the Genocide Convention, but more brazenly by openly facilitating continuation of the genocidal onslaught.This pattern is quite extraordinary because the states supporting Israel, above all the United States, have claimed the high moral and legal ground for themselves and have long lectured the states of the Global South about the importance of the rule of law, human rights, and respect for international law. This is instead of urging compliance with international law and morality by both sides in the face of the most transparent genocide in all of human history. In the numerous pre-Gaza genocides, the existential horrors that occurred were largely known after the fact and through statistics and abstractions, occasionally vivified by the tales told by survivors. The events, although historically reconstructed, were not as immediately real as these events in Gaza with the daily reports from journalists on the scene for more than three months.Liberal democracies failed not only by their refusal to make active efforts to prevent genocide, which is a central obligation of the Genocide Convention, but more brazenly by openly facilitating continuation of the genocidal onslaught. Israel’s frontline supporters have contributed weapons and munitions, as well as providing intelligence and assurance of active engagement by ground forces if requested, as well as providing diplomatic support at the U.N. and elsewhere throughout this crisis.These performative elements that describe Israel’s recourse to genocide are undeniable, while the complicity crimes enabling Israel to continue with genocide remain indistinct, being situated in the shadowland of genocide. For instance, the complicity crimes are noted but remain on the periphery of South Africa’s laudable application to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that includes a request for Provisional Measures crafted to stop the genocide pending a decision on the substance of the charges of genocide. The evidence of genocide is overwhelmingly documented in the 84-page South African submission, but the failure to address the organic link to the crimes of complicity is a weakness that could be reflected in what the court decides.Even if the ICJ does impose these Provisional Measures, including ordering Israel to desist from further violence in Gaza, it may not achieve the desired result, at least not before the substantive decision is reached some three to five years from now. It seems unlikely that Israel will obey Provisional Measures. It has a record of consistently defying international law. It is likely that a favorable decision on these preliminary matters will give rise to a crisis of implementation.The law is persuasively present, but the political will to enforce is lacking or even resistant, as here in certain parts of the Global West.

Israel Pounds Southern Lebanon With Airstrikes, Artillery - Continuing the escalation of Israel’s war against the surrounding area, Israeli warplanes attacked the southern Lebanese village of Wadi Saluki, an attack which “blanketed the area” with strikes and involved the use of artillery fire as well, including white phosphorous. As usual, Israel attempted the justify the attack by claiming Hezbollah military infrastructure was “concealed” in the area and that weapons were probably stored there.Wadi Saluki is further north than places Israel normally attacks. Located just south of the town of Hazerta, it has been the target of Israeli ground invasions as recently as the 2006 Lebanon War.Regarding a potential ground invasion, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of Israel’s Northern Command, reported ground troops were alreadyoperating inside Lebanon, and that tens of thousands of troops were actively training to participate in a Lebanon offensive. US officials warned that Israel would find this problematic during the open-ended Gaza offensive. Opening a second front in the war risks spreading forces too thin, and while US politicians back the Gaza War, it’s likely Israel will request more aid and weapons to support a second, concurrent war.

Israeli Military Chief Says Lebanon War Likely in Coming Months - Visiting troops near the northern border, head of Israel’s military, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, discussed the potential of war in Lebanon, saying the likelihood of a conflict in the coming months is “much higher” than it has been.Lt. Gen Halevi said he believes Israel will be starting the war with more advantages than in the past, and that lessons learned in Gaza will be applied to the situation in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of troops are reportedly being readied for the new offensive.The comments echo those of Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of northern forces, who said earlier this week that he believes the troops are “ready” for the war in Lebanon, and could start “tonight, if necessary.”Maj. Gen. Gordin’s comments came after an artillery and air strike attack on Wadi Saluki, a small village in southern Lebanon. He too was predicting tens of thousands of troops would be involved in this war.Lt. Gen. Halevi was explicit about the goal, saying it is “very clear” that the military needs to allow Israeli citizens to return to their homes in the north, and this would be accomplished through a new conflict with Hezbollah.Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israeli villages in tit-for-tat strikes for months now, and badly damaged an Israeli airbase in the process. They fired rockets into Israel after the Wadi Saluki strike, though reports denied there were any casualties, and most of the Israeli villages in the area were evacuated long ago.Israel has estimated some 80,000 citizens have been displaced by the fighting in the north. They may hope to resolve this with a war, but if anything, the near-term points to Hezbollah retaliation likely widening the zone of displacement and forcing even more to flee deeper into central Israel.

Focus on Fracking

Sunday, January 21, 2024

gasoline supplies at a 101 week high, distillates supplies at a 124 week high; December global oil shortage at 2,280,000 bpd

natural gas prices drop 24%, the most in 2 years; US gasoline supplies at a 101 week high, distillates supplies a 124 week high; global oil supply was 2,280,000 barrels per day short of global demand in December, with OPEC's output 332,000 barrels per day below their reduced target..

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